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000
FXUS61 KOKX 271827
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
227 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda High pressure will remain across the region through the
weekend. A cold front will pass through the area Monday into
Tuesday. High pressure returns for the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Convection has fired well nw. Will need to keep an eye on western
zones, west of the Hudson, for possible shower and thunderstorm
development early. HRRR continues to develop convection, along
the seabreeze boundary. Will seabreeze boundary be enough to
break the cap. With increasing cape as the afternoon progresses,
coverage increases warranting chance pops.

The forecast remains on track.

Shortwaves moving through today are progged to be weaker than they
were 24 hours ago. No changes to temps at this time. 850 mb temps
and sea breeze progress should be close to those of yesterday, but
yesterday featured a mostly sunny sky for most of the day for most
locations. Will forecast high temps lower than what occurred
yesterday. Looks like clouds will be more numerous and more opaque
this time around. Have gone above a guidance blend for high
temps, especially across Long Island where guidance has been too
low during the past couple of days.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the Atlantic
beaches Today into this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
An evening shower/thunderstorm is possible northwest of the city,
then with the loss of instability and only weak lift, dry
overnight.

For Saturday, still no significant source of lift outside of weak
mid level shortwaves, but SBCAPEs will be building once again away
from sea breezes. Again, will go with only slight chance to
chance pops, focused more toward the afternoon and away from areas
cooled by sea breezes.

Highs on Saturday should be warmer than on Friday with warmer temps
at the top of the mixed layer, and probably less cloud cover
overall. Again, needed to adjust a guidance blend upward to account
for the low bias as of late, especially over Long Island.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deep middle and upper level ridging over the Tri-State will continue
for the remainder of the weekend with Bermuda high pressure at the
surface. Any isolated or scattered convection that develops Sat
afternoon north and west of the city will quickly dissipate after
sunset as there is not much support other than from daytime heating.
A backdoor front may approach from the north Sunday morning, but
models seem to have come more in line with the boundary staying
north of the area. This makes sense given the strong ridging aloft
and generally weak surface flow. The front likely retreats northward
Sunday afternoon and may act as a focus for some scattered
showers/storms, so will show low chance pops for the northern
interior which will be closest to the boundary.
Sundays high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to possibly near
90 in NE NJ. A stronger southerly flow closer to the coast should
hold temperatures down a bit with highs closer to 80 degrees.

The ridge breaks down and shifts into the western Atlantic Sunday
night as a shortwave and its associated cold front approaches from
the west. Increasing SW flow aloft will advect in much deeper
moisture over the region. Models indicate precipitable waters
approaching 2 inches by Monday morning as a plume of tropical
moisture surges northward ahead of a tropical disturbance near the
SE coast. These values are close to the maximum observed
precipitable water for May 30 per SPC Sounding Climatology. The
shortwave trough should push the deepest moisture and best lift east
of the area by Monday evening. Have adjusted pops with this forecast
package to show an increasing trend Sunday night with likely pop
across the entire area on Monday morning. Pops trend down through
the afternoon. Models on occasion can break down ridges too quickly,
so it is possible that this timing will be adjusted in future
forecasts. Instability looks marginal at this time so will only
include slight chance thunder wording in the forecast. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible with any shower/storm due to the high moisture
content of this air mass. Temperatures will be much cooler on
Monday and closer to seasonal norms due to clouds and
precipitation.

The cold front looks to be much slower and may not fully move
through the area until Tuesday. With best moisture well offshore,
have trended to a dry one overnight Monday into Tuesday. High
pressure then builds into the region as ridging rebuilds aloft.
There are differences between the GFS and ECMWF with its placement
of the ridge axis and therefore its surface high. These differences
also exist in their ensemble systems so have leaned close to model
consensus for Wednesday and Thursday. Above normal temperatures
forecast on Tuesday and the temperatures should return closer to
seasonal norms Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The area will remain on the western side of the Bermuda High into
Saturday with a thermal trough across then interior each
afternoon.

Convection was developing along the NJ coast in the vicinity of
the seabreeze front. This will likely have impacts to the gates to
the west and southwest of the NYC terminals this afternoon into
early this evening. Confidence remains low on thunderstorms at the
NYC terminals as well as KISP and KBDR due to the airmass forecast
to stabilize over the next few hours. However, based on latest
radar imagery will mention VCSH. Highest confidence is at KSWF.

VFR outside of any convection. MVFR fog/haze possible - probable
outside of NYC/Long Island terminals tonight.

South winds around 10 kt today with local seabreeze enhancements.
Easterly winds across LI Sound will influence KBDR through part of
this afternoon. There is some uncertainty with the timing of the
winds veering back to the south. Winds become SW at under 10kt
this evening and then gradually increase back to around 10 kt Sat
morning.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 15-20kt possible with
afternoon seabreeze. Low chance of afternoon/early evening
shower/thunderstorm.

KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 15-20kt possible with
afternoon seabreeze. Low chance of afternoon/early evening
shower/thunderstorm.

KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional gusts around 15-20kt possible with
afternoon seabreeze. Low chance of afternoon/early evening
shower/thunderstorm.

KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional gusts around 15-20kt possible with
afternoon seabreeze. Low chance of afternoon/early evening
shower/thunderstorm.

KHPN TAF Comments: Low chance of afternoon/early evening
shower/thunderstorm.

KISP TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 15-20kt possible with
afternoon seabreeze.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Saturday through Wednesday...
.Saturday afternoon-Sunday...Mainly VFR with afternoon
seabreezes. There is a chance of MVFR or lower in any isolated to
scattered afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms; mainly to the
n/w of NYC.
.Sunday night-Monday...MVFR or lower probable with showers and
thunderstorms.
.Monday night-Tuesday...Becoming VFR Monday night. Seabreezes
likely Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
The western periphery of Bermuda high pressure remains across the
waters through Saturday. Winds and seas are expected to remain below
small craft levels during this period, however, late this afternoon
into early evening there could be occasional gusts to 25 kt over
the ocean waters west of Fire Island Inlet. Will also be watching
seas as they build close to 5 feet across the outer waters.

A weak pressure gradient across the waters will keep winds and seas
below sca levels Saturday night through Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible mostly for the
inland areas this afternoon, this evening, and Saturday
afternoon. However, no significant widespread precipitation is
expected through the weekend.

Rainfall amounts around one half to three quarters of an inch are
possible on Monday with locally higher amounts. Localized urban
or poor drainage flooding is possible from the heaviest rain.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...JC/DS/PW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 271705
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
105 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda High pressure will remain across the region through the
weekend. A cold front will pass through the area Monday into
Tuesday. High pressure returns for the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Convection has fired well nw. Will need to keep an eye on western
zones, west of the Hudson, for possible shower and thunderstorm
development early. HRRR continues to develop convection, along
the seabreeze boundary. Will seabreeze boundary be enough to
break the cap. With increasing cape as the afternoon progresses,
coverage increases warranting chance pops.

The forecast remains on track.

Shortwaves moving through today are progged to be weaker than they
were 24 hours ago. No changes to temps at this time. 850 mb temps
and sea breeze progress should be close to those of yesterday, but
yesterday featured a mostly sunny sky for most of the day for most
locations. Will forecast high temps lower than what occurred
yesterday. Looks like clouds will be more numerous and more opaque
this time around. Have gone above a guidance blend for high
temps, especially across Long Island where guidance has been too
low during the past couple of days.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the Atlantic
beaches Today into this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
An evening shower/thunderstorm is possible northwest of the city,
then with the loss of instability and only weak lift, dry
overnight.

For Saturday, still no significant source of lift outside of weak
mid level shortwaves, but SBCAPEs will be building once again away
from sea breezes. Again, will go with only slight chance to
chance pops, focused more toward the afternoon and away from areas
cooled by sea breezes.

Highs on Saturday should be warmer than on Friday with warmer temps
at the top of the mixed layer, and probably less cloud cover
overall. Again, needed to adjust a guidance blend upward to account
for the low bias as of late, especially over Long Island.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deep middle and upper level ridging over the Tri-State will continue
for the remainder of the weekend with Bermuda high pressure at the
surface. Any isolated or scattered convection that develops Sat
afternoon north and west of the city will quickly dissipate after
sunset as there is not much support other than from daytime heating.
A backdoor front may approach from the north Sunday morning, but
models seem to have come more in line with the boundary staying
north of the area. This makes sense given the strong ridging aloft
and generally weak surface flow. The front likely retreats northward
Sunday afternoon and may act as a focus for some scattered
showers/storms, so will show low chance pops for the northern
interior which will be closest to the boundary.
Sundays high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to possibly near
90 in NE NJ. A stronger southerly flow closer to the coast should
hold temperatures down a bit with highs closer to 80 degrees.

The ridge breaks down and shifts into the western Atlantic Sunday
night as a shortwave and its associated cold front approaches from
the west. Increasing SW flow aloft will advect in much deeper
moisture over the region. Models indicate precipitable waters
approaching 2 inches by Monday morning as a plume of tropical
moisture surges northward ahead of a tropical disturbance near the
SE coast. These values are close to the maximum observed
precipitable water for May 30 per SPC Sounding Climatology. The
shortwave trough should push the deepest moisture and best lift east
of the area by Monday evening. Have adjusted pops with this forecast
package to show an increasing trend Sunday night with likely pop
across the entire area on Monday morning. Pops trend down through
the afternoon. Models on occasion can break down ridges too quickly,
so it is possible that this timing will be adjusted in future
forecasts. Instability looks marginal at this time so will only
include slight chance thunder wording in the forecast. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible with any shower/storm due to the high moisture
content of this air mass. Temperatures will be much cooler on
Monday and closer to seasonal norms due to clouds and
precipitation.

The cold front looks to be much slower and may not fully move
through the area until Tuesday. With best moisture well offshore,
have trended to a dry one overnight Monday into Tuesday. High
pressure then builds into the region as ridging rebuilds aloft.
There are differences between the GFS and ECMWF with its placement
of the ridge axis and therefore its surface high. These differences
also exist in their ensemble systems so have leaned close to model
consensus for Wednesday and Thursday. Above normal temperatures
forecast on Tuesday and the temperatures should return closer to
seasonal norms Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The area will remain on the western side of the Bermuda High into
Saturday morning.

The main concern is for the potential of shower and thunderstorm
development along the seabreeze this afternoon near the NYC
terminals in the 17Z to 21Z timeframe. Confidence is low with the
best chance to the north and west this afternoon before the airmass
stabilizes as the marine layer works inland. Continue to feature
VCSH at KSWF/KHPN/KTEB.

Mainly VFR then MVFR fog/haze possible-probable outside of
NYC/Long Island terminals tonight.

S winds around 10 kt today with local seabreeze enhancements.
Easterly winds across LI Sound will influence KBDR through early
afternoon. Occasional gusts of 15-20kt are possible at NYC
terminals/KISP - strongest at KJFK. Winds become SW at under 10kt
this evening, likely becoming light and variable again inland
tonight.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 15-20kt possible with
afternoon seabreeze. Low chance of afternoon/early evening
shower/thunderstorm.

KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional gusts around 15kt possible with
afternoon seabreeze. Low chance of afternoon/early evening
shower/thunderstorm.

KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional gusts around 15kt possible with
afternoon seabreeze. Low chance of afternoon/early evening
shower/thunderstorm.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is green...which
implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional gusts around 15kt possible with
afternoon seabreeze. Low chance of afternoon/early evening
shower/thunderstorm.

KHPN TAF Comments: Low chance of afternoon/early evening
shower/thunderstorm.

KISP TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 15-20kt possible with
afternoon seabreeze.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z Saturday through Tuesday...
.Saturday-Sunday...Mainly VFR with afternoon seabreezes. There is
a chance of MVFR or lower in any isolated to scattered
afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms; mainly to the n/w of NYC.
.Sunday night-Monday...MVFR or lower probable with showers and
thunderstorms.
.Monday night-Tuesday...Becoming VFR Monday night. Seabreezes
likely Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
The western periphery of Bermuda high pressure remains across the
waters through Saturday. Winds and seas are expected to remain below
small craft levels during this period, however, late this afternoon
into early evening there could be occasional gusts to 25 kt over
the ocean waters west of Fire Island Inlet. Will also be watching
seas as they build close to 5 feet across the outer waters.

A weak pressure gradient across the waters will keep winds and seas
below sca levels Saturday night through Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible mostly for the
inland areas this afternoon, this evening, and Saturday
afternoon. However, no significant widespread precipitation is
expected through the weekend.

Rainfall amounts around one half to three quarters of an inch are
possible on Monday with locally higher amounts. Localized urban
or poor drainage flooding is possible from the heaviest rain.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...JC/DS/PW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...Maloit/DW
MARINE...JC/DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS



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000
FXUS61 KBUF 271510
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1110 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure anchored off the Southeast Coast will combine with
persistent low pressure over the center of the country to keep a
feed of warm humid air in place through the bulk of the long holiday
weekend. The mid summer warmth will fuel some widely separated
showers and thunderstorms away from the lakes today...then this
activity will gradually increase each day through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Temperature and humidity levels continue to rise this morning as we
are on our way to another summer day across our region today. This
is due to warm advection thanks to strong ridging centered off the
Southeast Coast. 850mb temps of 17C per 12z BUF RAOB will encourage
afternoon temperatures to climb into the mid 80s F.  While local
lake breezes will hold temps in the 70s within a mile of so of the
lakes (including downtown Buffalo)...the other end of the spectrum
will include max temps within a degree or two of 90 in the normally
warmer Genesee Valley and some of the Srn Tier valleys. The
potential for midday and afternoon convection will play a big role
in whether these latter areas can reach close to 90.

Speaking of convection...there will once again be the risk for
widely separated showers and thunderstorms during the midday and
afternoon. While an unstable atmosphere is already in place with
daybreak MLCAPEs in the vcnty of 100-200 j/kg...plenty of diurnal
heating will send these values rocketing to 1500-2000 j/kg by early
afternoon. Working against widespread convection will be a
burgeoning H5 ridge over the region. This will leave mesoscale
processes in charge of triggering any storms...so like yesterday...
yesterday (Thurs)...any convection will be found well inland from
the lakes. The trigger for any thunderstorm activity will once again
come from a lake breeze boundary off Lake Erie...that will gradually
push east/northeast from the Chautauqua ridge during the midday and
afternoon. Given the light flow up through 20k ft and a `skinny`
CAPE profile...any convection should remain below severe limits with
only a small chance for isolated pea sized hail and wind gusts to 35
kts. Given PWAT values that will approach 1.5"...there will be a
greater chance for slow moving downpours that could produce a half
inch soaking for a given area. The remainder of the region will
experience partly to mostly sunny skies.

Any remaining showers or thunderstorms over the Finger Lakes or
Southern Tier early this evening will quickly subside with the
setting sun...as a stabilizing environment and greatly weakened lake
breeze boundary will allow for fair weather to prevail. Otherwise a
fair warm night will be found over Western and North Central New
York with the mercury only settling into the low to mid 60s. These
values will be more typical of those found in July or early August.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level ridge will extend from Bermuda to the Lower Great
Lakes Region during the weekend.  This will bring mid-summers warmth
and a persistent but small chance for showers and thunderstorms to
our region during the holiday weekend.

The big story for the weekend will be the early season heat, which
will approach record levels on Saturday. Highs will range from the
mid 80s to the lower 90s inland of the lake breeze on Saturday, with
Sunday just a few degrees cooler. Dew points will be in the mid to
upper 60s which will result in muggy conditions and limit cooling
overnight.

The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be during the
afternoon and early evening hours when daytime heating helps
destabilize the atmosphere. The combination of boundary layer
moisture and heating will result in fairly impressive instability
with NAM/GFS BUFKIT showing afternoon CAPES climbing over 1500 J/Kg
inland of the lake breeze. Despite this instability, upper level
ridging will limit large scale lift. Lacking a focus, expect
diurnally driven thunderstorms to be fairly sparse in areal
coverage, mainly focusing on and inland of lake breeze, boundaries
from adjacent or previous convection, or across higher terrain.
Model precipitation amounts may be misleading due to smoothing of
lower resolution guidance, when in reality there will be locally
heavy but widely dispersed downpours. As a result will carry mid-
range chance to lower end likely POPS during the afternoon and
evening hours Saturday and Sunday.

Even without any large scale lift at night, weak impulses may cross
the top of the ridge. Therefore it is difficult to completely rule
any showers during the nighttime and morning hours, but the chances
are very small with very limited areal coverage. A shortwave will
approach the region from the Upper Lakes as the ridge starts to
break down Sunday night. This will result in an increasing chance
for showers late Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Summers warmth and humidity will have one last day of gripping the
Eastern Great Lakes region before a weak cool front crosses the
region. Expect showers and thunderstorms throughout the day
Monday...with activity ending late morning across WNY and then the
afternoon hours over the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario
region as this weak cool front crosses. Highs Monday will reach into
the lower 80s for many areas.

Air temperatures will be a few degrees cooler Tues-Wednesday and
more noticeable will be the drop in humidity as dewpoints will fall
from the mid 60s Monday down to the mid 50s for Tues-Wednesday. High
pressure extending southward from Canada will provide for sunny
skies both days.

Thursday a storm will advance across the western Great Lakes
region...and towards James Bay...while pushing a cold front and
associated showers and thunderstorms eastward across the Great
Lakes. This activity may reach the eastern Great Lakes area before
the end of the day Thursday. Ahead of this cold front southerly
winds will bring a return to warm and more humid air for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Persistent ridging off the Southeast Coast will provide Western and
North Central New York with mainly VFR conditions through the TAF
period. An area of MVFR cigs that were over KJHW earlier this
morning have drifted north to KBUF where an hour or so of MVFR will
occur until the low clouds mix out.

While VFR conditions will be in place across the region...there will
be the risk for convection across the Srn Tier and Finger Lakes
Region after 16z. This is not expected to impact commercial TAF
sites though for Western and North Central New York.

For tonight...any early evening convection will quickly dissipate.
This will leave VFR conditions across all of the region.

Outlook...
Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A burgeoning ridge centered off the Southeast Coast...but extending
to the northwest across the Lower Great Lakes...will keep fair
weather in place through at least the first half of the Memorial Day
weekend. This will be accompanied by light winds and negligible waves.

While fine conditions for recreational boating will likely persist
through Sunday...there will be an increasing chance for showers and
thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday as a frontal system will move
across the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The first extended period of summer`s warmth will be upon us this
weekend. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s, of which some
of these daily readings may near record levels. Listed below are
the records for our three climate stations.

BUFFALO...

Today......May 27th...Record High Maximum...89F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...86F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1911

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...1987
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1987


ROCHESTER...

Today......May 27th...Record High Maximum...92F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...70F...1918

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...93F...1911
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1939

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...92F...2006
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1908


WATERTOWN...

Today......May 27th...Record High Maximum...87F...1960
......................Record High Minimum...67F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...85F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...64F...1987

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...63F...2006


A climatic day is between 1 AM EDT to 1 AM EDT.

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871,
while records for Watertown start in 1949.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/WCH
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...RSH/SMITH
MARINE...RSH/SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS



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000
FXUS61 KBTV 271107
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
707 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures will be the rule across the North Country
right through the entire Memorial Day weekend. High temperatures
will be on the order of 10 to 20 degrees above normal for this
time of year. In addition...higher dew points will lead to more
humid conditions and the threat for showers and thunderstorms will
exist...especially on Sunday and Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 707 AM EDT Friday...Warm air advection precipitation has
ended across Vermont this morning and clouds associated with it
have also be decreasing in areal coverage. Also seeing some clouds
associated with shortwave trough moving across Quebec Province
this morning. But as this cloud cover exits later this morning...
sunshine combined with warmer 925/850 mb temperatures than
yesterday suggests high temperatures should be in the 80s across
the entire area...which will be about 10 to 20 degrees above
normal for this time of year. This combined with dew points around
60 suggest instability should develop to enhance the potential for
convection this afternoon and evening. Weak ridging aloft and lack
of a well defined forcing mechanism suggests the terrain will be
the main driving force for any convection. Do not feel the
convection will be widespread as parameters for organized
convection are limited. Nevertheless...looking for precipitation
probabilities in the slight chance to chance category...especially
from the northern Adirondacks eastward. Brief heavy downpours
would be the main threat with any of the convection. As the
atmosphere stabilizes tonight... convection should end by
midnight. Higher dew points now in the area suggest overnight lows
will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s...which is 10 to 17 degrees
above normal for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 423 AM EDT Friday...saturday and saturday night will be
mainly dry and warm with large upper level ridge over the area as
well as high pressure at the surface. temperatures will be almost
twenty degrees warmer than normal for maximum temperatures as they
nudge 90 in the warmest spots. on sunday upper level ridge will
finally begin to slide eastward away from our area...upper level
trof will approach from the great lakes region. upper level
shortwaves move into our area and showers will become likely by
the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 423 AM EDT Friday...sunday night into monday a cold front
will approach from the great lakes region with a low lifting well
north of our area. cold front will move across the area during the
daytime hours and showers will be likely for monday. then upper
level flow will become more flat and westerly and a ridge of
surface high pressure builds into the north country. drier warm
weather will continue from tuesday through thursday. next chance
for showers will be friday as another cold front approaches from
the west.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Expect VFR conditions through much of the
period...but there will be a potential for MVFR and possibly IFR
conditions for ceilings and visibilities after 06z. This is when
deeper moisture moves in and combined with any residual moisture
from rainfall this afternoon and evening. The best potential for
showers or thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will generally
be between 20z and 03z. Winds will generally be under 10 knots
through the period.

Outlook 12Z Saturday through Tuesday... Mainly VFR with a daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Saturday through
Monday time frame.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Friday and Saturday will see the warmest temperatures of 2016
thus far. The average first date of 90F or higher for Burlington
VT is June 20th. The earliest occurrence in the calendar year of
90F was April 17, 2002.

Record maximum temperatures for Friday 5/27 and Saturday 5/28 are as
follows:                   5/27         5/28
BTV - Burlington        91 in 1944    92 in 1978
MPV - Montpelier        88 in 1960    88 in 1978
MSS - Massena           89 in 1978    89 in 1978
St Johnsbury            89 in 1914    93 in 1978
Mt Mansfield            76 in 1978    77 in 1978

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Evenson/Lahiff
CLIMATE...KGM



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000
FXUS61 KBGM 270829
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
429 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer like warmth will continue over the next several days along
with an increase in humidity. Although much of the time looks
rain free, hit and miss afternoon showers and thunderstorms, are
possible today through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
415 AM Update...

High temps today will be a degree or so warmer than yesterday but
it will be the increase in moisture, as dew points climb from the
50s into the 60s, that will make it feel much more muggy. One weak
upper level disturbance over north central PA will keep a few
showers across NEPA and the Catskills through daybreak, followed
by drier weather for everybody through late morning. Another
disturbance now over northeast Ohio will track east northeast
along the NY/PA border by midday. This along with our increase in
moisture and daytime heating is enough to maintain our 30% chance
for afternoon showers/storms. With the track of the disturbance
the highest chances will be near the NY/PA, with decreasing
chances across Central NY.  As the previous forecaster pointed
out however, building heights aloft will keep anything widespread
from forming. Any afternoon convection quickly dies early this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM Update...

Upper level heights build to 588 DM Saturday which will translate
into the warmest day of the next 7. Highs well into the 80s are
expected, with near 90 degree readings over the urban and lower
elevation areas. With dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, heat indices
will be 2 to 4 degrees warmer than actual air temps. With our area
will being on the outer edge of the 500 mb ridge, any disturbance
in the west southwest flow aloft will be enough to capitalize on
the afternoon instability (fuel from the moisture and daytime
heating) to warrant another 30% chance for afternoon/evening
thunderstorms. While not a washout, chances for storms increase to
50%+ Sunday as the ridge begins to break down and we have a better
chance for upper level support.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 am Update...
The models remain reasonably consistent from previous runs, so
only small changes, if any, were made to the existing forecast.

A short-wave and cold frontal passage is still progged for Monday,
thus we have a good chance for showers/thunderstorms. Behind these
systems, we should see dry and slightly cooler weather for
Tuesday and Wednesday, with daily highs in the 70s-lower 80s.

Later next week (Thursday and beyond), model divergence increases,
as the European model has been more progressive to bring in our
next cold front and chances for showers and storms, while the GFS
model is more amplified and slower overall. For now, we simply
populated with the ER Superblend, which is a good compromise
between these scenarios.

     Previous Discussion...
Upper ridge at start becomes a weak trof Tuesday then back to a
ridge Wednesday night. Temperatures remain above normal
throughout. Models in decent agreement and used a blend of the
Superblend and WPCguide. Little change from previous.

On Monday a cold front will increase the forcing and upped the
pops to likely. After that mainly dry until at least Thursday. A
chance Thursday with poor model agreement. Next system may hold
off until Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR/unrestricted conditions can be expected throughout the period.

The potential "flies in the ointment" could be a brief shower
impacting KAVP early this morning (08-12z), with possible
restrictions. Also, isolated showers/thunderstorms are expected
again this afternoon (mostly after 18z). In either case, though,
fairly low probability of occurrence at any one site precludes its
mention in the terminal forecasts.

Light/variable winds early this morning, will become W-SW at 8-10
kt later today. Winds should become light again this evening
(after 00z Sat).

OUTLOOK...

Saturday through Tuesday...Mostly VFR. Afternoon-evening TSRA
possible any day with brief restrictions, but best chance will be
Sunday- Monday. Also early morning VIS could be reduced in the
moist air mass to MVFR in haze-fog, especially valley site KELM,
which could get have brief lower restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Heden
NEAR TERM...Heden
SHORT TERM...Heden
LONG TERM...MLJ/TAC
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP




000
FXUS61 KBUF 270623
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
223 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure anchored off the Southeast Coast will combine with
persistent low pressure over the center of the country to keep a
feed of warm humid air in place through the bulk of the long holiday
weekend. The mid summer warmth will fuel some widely separated
showers and thunderstorms away from the lakes today...then this
activity will gradually increase each day through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Western and North-Central New York will stew in a very warm and
muggy airmass more reminiscent of late-July than late-May as
dewpoints will linger in the lower 60s throughout the night. Given
the high dewpoints and light winds, patchy fog cannot be ruled out
across lower lying areas...particularly those that saw heavier
rainfall earlier today. Look for lows to only fall into the low to
mid 60s, with a few spots in the Buffalo metro and near Lake Erie
only falling into the upper 60s.

Later this Friday, a burgeoning upper level ridge bulging into the
Lower Great Lakes will make for an even warmer day than today as
850mb temps push towards +17C, yielding widespread highs in the mid
80s, with a few spots in the typically warmer Genesee Valley
possibly breaching the 90 degree mark. This ridging should have a
detrimental effect on the development of any organized convection...
however given the moist and unstable airmass in place with SBCAPES
progged to climb as high as 1500 j/kg in the afternoon inland from
the lakes, expect that we should at least see isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, with lake breeze
boundaries providing the impetus for convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level ridge will extend from Bermuda to the Lower Great
Lakes Region Friday Night through Sunday.  This will bring mid-
summers warmth and a persistent but small chance for showers and
thunderstorms to our region during the holiday weekend.

The big story for the weekend will be the early season heat, which
will approach record levels on Saturday. Highs will range from the
mid 80s to around 90 inland of the lake breeze on Saturday, with
Sunday just a few degrees cooler. Dew points will be in the mid to
upper 60s which will result in muggy conditions and limit cooling
overnight.

The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be during the
afternoon and early evening hours when daytime heating helps
destabilize the atmosphere. The combination of boundary layer
moisture and heating will result in fairly impressive instability
with NAM/GFS BUFKIT showing afternoon CAPES climbing over 2000 J/Kg
inland of the lake breeze. Despite this instability, upper level
ridging will limit large scale lift. Lacking a focus, expect
diurnally driven thunderstorms to be fairly sparse in areal
coverage, mainly focusing on and inland of lake breeze or boundaries
or across higher terrain. Model QPFs may be misleading due to
smoothing of lower resolution guidance when in reality there will
heavy but localized downpours. As a result will carry mostly low to
mid-range chance POPS during the afternoon and evening hours
Saturday and Sunday.

Even without any large scale lift at night, weak impulses may cross
the top of the ridge. Therefore it is difficult to completely rule
any showers during the nighttime and morning hours, but the chances
are very small with very limited areal coverage. A shortwave will
approach the region from the Upper Lakes as the ridge starts to
break down Sunday night. This will result in an increasing chance
for showers late Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Summers warmth and humidity will have one last day of gripping the
Eastern Great Lakes region before a weak cool front crosses the
region. Expect showers and thunderstorms throughout the day
Monday...with activity ending late morning across WNY and then the
afternoon hours over the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario
region as this weak cool front crosses. Highs Monday will reach into
the lower 80s for many areas.

Air temperatures will be a few degrees cooler Tues-Wednesday and
more noticeable will be the drop in humidity as dewpoints will fall
from the mid 60s Monday down to the mid 50s for Tues-Wednesday. High
pressure extending southward from Canada will provide for sunny
skies both days.

Thursday a storm will advance across the western Great Lakes
region...and towards James Bay...while pushing a cold front and
associated showers and thunderstorms eastward across the Great
Lakes. This activity may reach the eastern Great Lakes area before
the end of the day Thursday. Ahead of this cold front southerly
winds will bring a return to warm and more humid air for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Persistent ridging off the Southeast Coast will provide Western and
North Central New York with mainly VFR conditions through the TAF
period...although there will be two areas that will likely
experience IFR conditions between 09 and 12z this morning.

The first of these areas will be across the Southern Tier where dew
points close to 60 and a light southerly flow could produce some
patchy IFR cigs/vsbys at sites such as KJHW and KELZ. The second
area will be across the North Country where MVFR vsbys were already
in place as of the 06z TAF issuance. VSBYS at sites such as KART are
expected to lower to IFR levels after 09z. IFR conditions are
already in place across parts of Southern Ontario...upstream from
KART.

As we work through the upcoming day...while VFR conditions will be
in place across the region...there will be the risk for convection
across the Srn Tier and Finger Lakes Region after 16z. This is not
expected to impact commercial TAF sites though for Western and North
Central New York.

For Friday night...any early evening convection will quickly
dissipate. This will leave VFR conditions across all of the region.

Outlook...
Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge will settle over the east coast through the holiday weekend.
An increase in heat and humidity will allow some scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Winds
and waves outside of any storms will remain fairly negligible
through the next few days. The tranquil pattern will continue
through the end of the week, although thunderstorms may produce
locally higher winds and waves at times each day through the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The first extended period of summer`s warmth will be upon us this
weekend. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s, of which some
of these daily readings may near record levels. Listed below are
the records for our three climate stations.

BUFFALO...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...89F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...86F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1911

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...1987
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1987


ROCHESTER...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...92F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...70F...1918

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...93F...1911
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1939

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...92F...2006
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1908


WATERTOWN...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...87F...1960
......................Record High Minimum...67F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...85F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...64F...1987

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...63F...2006


A climatic day is between 1 AM EDT to 1 AM EDT.

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871,
while records for Watertown start in 1949.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH/SMITH/WOOD
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270508
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
108 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures will be the rule across the North
Country right through the entire Memorial Day weekend. High
temperatures will be on the order of 10 to 20 degrees above normal
for this time of year. In addition...higher dew points will lead
to more humid conditions and the threat for showers and
thunderstorms will exist...especially on Sunday and Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 108 AM EDT Friday...Threat for showers continues to
decrease early this morning as forcing and instability remain
limited. Have decreased precipitation chances as a result.
Adjusted cloud cover to match current conditions and did the same
with temperatures as cloud cover keeping temperatures up
overnight.

Friday begins relatively calm and mild under the aforementioned
upper ridge, and much like today expect some afternoon convection
to break out as the stalled front to our south overnight shifts
northeastward as a warm front. Axis of best instability and CAPE
appears to be from the Adirondacks eastward through Vermont, where
I`m not thinking we`ll see any real strong storms, but certainly a
few heavy downpours and a few strikes of lightning. 925mb temps
bump up to around +20-22C supporting highs ranging through the
80s, locally warmest in the Champlain, St. Lawrence and Southern
Connecticut River valleys pushing towards 90, but I think we`ll
fall just short in the upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 339 PM EDT Thursday...Showers and thunderstorms taper off
Friday night with brief period of surface high pressure into early
Saturday. Min temperatures will be mild in mostly cloudy skies,
ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Saturday will see potential for some afternoon showers and
thunderstorms in temperatures nearing 90 in the broad valleys and
generally mid 80s elsewhere. Saturday night will be similar to
Friday night with regard to warm temperatures and drying trend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 339 PM EDT Thursday...Temperatures remain above normal
throughout the period, with most notable change occurring Monday
as max temperatures decrease from being in the low to upper 80s on
Sunday to the mid 70s to low 80s for the work week.

Throughout the day Sunday, ridge of high pressure slides east
into the Atlantic, increasing southerly flow and moisture over the
North Country. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will again be
expected as we enter the warm sector of surface low pressure
system over eastern Ontario. This system will keep chance for
precipitation Sunday night through late Monday/Monday night as a
cold front moves through the region.

High pressure builds at the surface and aloft across the
northeast and mid-atlantic states Tuesday through the middle of
the week with generally dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Expect VFR conditions through the period.
There will be a low potential for showers or thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening and will include some VCSH in the forecast.
Winds will generally be under 10 knots through the period.

Outlook 06Z Saturday through Tuesday... Mainly VFR with a daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Saturday through
Monday time frame.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Friday and Saturday will see the warmest temperatures of 2016
thus far. The average first date of 90F or higher for Burlington
VT is June 20th. The earliest occurrence in the calendar year of
90F was April 17, 2002.

Record maximum temperatures for Friday 5/27 and Saturday 5/28 are as
follows:                   5/27         5/28
BTV - Burlington        91 in 1944    92 in 1978
MPV - Montpelier        88 in 1960    88 in 1978
MSS - Massena           89 in 1978    89 in 1978
St Johnsbury            89 in 1914    93 in 1978
Mt Mansfield            76 in 1978    77 in 1978

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...Evenson/Lahiff
CLIMATE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 270146
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
946 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer like warmth will continue, over the next several days.
Although much of the time looks rain free, hit and miss afternoon
showers and thunderstorms, are possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
945 PM update...The limited convection that was over the region
earlier this evening has weakened more with the loss of diurnal
heating. Will continue with isolated showers primarily I81 east
overnight but removed the mention of thunder as instability/forcing
is lacking.

previous disc...
A few very isltd shwrs have dvlps this aftn, but far less than
indicated by the shrt term meso models. Part of the reason is the
lrg amt mid and hi lvl clds limiting the htg. Upr lvl rdgg conts
to be quite strong as well. In any event, Wwll cont with chance
pops this aftn into the eve, but keeps pops blo what models have
indicated. Ovrngt, psblty of pcpn slowly drops as we lose htg.
Some lgt fog psbl but with limited cvrg, have not included in the
grids attm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Rdgg locked in place over the fcst area thru the shrt term. Models
cont to insist that conv will flair in the aftns with htg, and
there is plenty of energy avbl, esp on the NAM. Hwvr, air remains
rather dry, and with mid lvl wrmg, any conv shd be very isltd, and
more likely north and west of the fcst area.

Earlier in the week, GFS,ECMWF showed a backdoor cold fnt driving
wwrd across the fcst area. This feature has weakend in time as the
rdg has and will remain locked in place. Ely flow will remain much
clsr to the cst.

Otr feature is the dvlpg ptnl tropical system off the se cst. This
ptnl low is very slow mvg and shd remain well south of the area
thru the shrt term at least.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 pm Thursday update...

Upper ridge at start becomes a weak trof Tuesday then back to a
ridge Wednesday night. Temperatures remain above normal
throughout. Models in decent agreement and used a blend of the
Superblend and WPCguide. Little change from previous.

On Monday a cold front will increase the forcing and upped the
pops to likely. After that mainly dry until at least Thursday. A
chance Thursday with poor model agreement. Next system may hold
off until Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR most of the time through this TAF period. SCT TSRA developed
in western NY this afternoon but it is struggling eastward as it
runs into a drier more stable air mass. KSYR will see a brief
-SHRA and wind shift as the leftovers of upstream convection drift
through. Remainder of terminals could see an isolated -SHRA this
evening but chances low enough to preclude mentioning it in TAFs.
Late tonight, light valley fog will visit KELM-KAVP with MVFR VIS.
Brief IFR-or-worse not out of the question for KELM, but
combination of cloud cover and decent flow just off the surface
makes dense fog appear unlikely at this time. Instability should
result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms Friday afternoon.
Not in TAFs right now due to lack of uncertainty for which
terminals will be impacted and at what time. Winds generally light
and variable overnight, then southwest 5-8 knots during the day
Friday.

OUTLOOK...

Friday Night through Monday...Mostly VFR. Afternoon-evening TSRA
possible any day with brief restrictions but best chance will be
Sunday-Monday. Also early morning VIS could be reduced in the
moist air mass to MVFR in haze-fog, especially valley site KELM
which could get have brief lower restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBUF 270028
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
828 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will set up over the western Atlantic
for the next several days bringing summertime warmth. Along with
the warm temperatures, an increase in humidity will also bring
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms each day leading
up to and into the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms that pushed through a good portion of the
forecast area this afternoon have largely moved east out of the
forecast area and/or dissipated this evening. This will leave
Western and North-Central New York to stew in a very warm and muggy
airmass more reminiscent of late-July than late-May tonight as
dewpoints will linger in the lower 60s throughout the night. Given
the high dewpoints and light winds, patchy fog cannot be ruled out
across lower lying areas...particularly those that saw heavier
rainfall earlier today. Look for lows to only fall into the low to
mid 60s, with a few spots in the Buffalo metro and near Lake Erie
only falling into the upper 60s.

Finally, there will be a slight chance for a round of showers late
tonight/early Friday morning across the Southern Tier, tied to
another upper level shortwave currently depicted over NW Ohio. This
disturbance is progged to weaken by the time it reaches the Southern
Tier...nonetheless given the soupy airmass in place, an isolated
shower or two cannot be ruled out.

Moving farther into Friday, upper level ridging building into the
Lower Great Lakes will make for an even warmer day than today as
850mb temps push towards +17C, yielding widespread highs in the mid
80s, with a few spots in the typically warmer Genesee Valley
possibly breaching the 90 degree mark. This ridging should have a
detrimental effect on the development of any organized
convection...however, given the moist and unstable airmass in place
with SBCAPES progged to climb as high as 1500 j/kg in the afternoon
inland from the lakes, expect that we should at least see isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, with lake
breeze boundaries providing the impetus for convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level ridge will extend from Bermuda to the Lower Great
Lakes Region Friday Night through Sunday.  This will bring mid-
summers warmth and a persistent but small chance for showers and
thunderstorms to our region during the holiday weekend.

The big story for the weekend will be the early season heat, which
will approach record levels on Saturday. Highs will range from the
mid 80s to around 90 inland of the lake breeze on Saturday, with
Sunday just a few degrees cooler. Dew points will be in the mid to
upper 60s which will result in muggy conditions and limit cooling
overnight.

The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be during the
afternoon and early evening hours when daytime heating helps
destabilize the atmosphere. The combination of boundary layer
moisture and heating will result in fairly impressive instability
with NAM/GFS BUFKIT showing afternoon CAPES climbing over 2000 J/Kg
inland of the lake breeze. Despite this instability, upper level
ridging will limit large scale lift. Lacking a focus, expect
diurnally driven thunderstorms to be fairly sparse in areal
coverage, mainly focusing on and inland of lake breeze or boundaries
or across higher terrain. Model QPFs may be misleading due to
smoothing of lower resolution guidance when in reality there will
heavy but localized downpours. As a result will carry mostly low to
mid-range chance POPS during the afternoon and evening hours
Saturday and Sunday.

Even without any large scale lift at night, weak impulses may cross
the top of the ridge. Therefore it is difficult to completely rule
any showers during the nighttime and morning hours, but the chances
are very small with very limited areal coverage. A shortwave will
approach the region from the Upper Lakes as the ridge starts to
break down Sunday night. This will result in an increasing chance
for showers late Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Summers warmth and humidity will have one last day of gripping the
Eastern Great Lakes region before a weak cool front crosses the
region. Expect showers and thunderstorms throughout the day
Monday...with activity ending late morning across WNY and then the
afternoon hours over the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario
region as this weak cool front crosses. Highs Monday will reach into
the lower 80s for many areas.

Air temperatures will be a few degrees cooler Tues-Wednesday and
more noticeable will be the drop in humidity as dewpoints will fall
from the mid 60s Monday down to the mid 50s for Tues-Wednesday. High
pressure extending southward from Canada will provide for sunny
skies both days.

Thursday a storm will advance across the western Great Lakes
region...and towards James Bay...while pushing a cold front and
associated showers and thunderstorms eastward across the Great
Lakes. This activity may reach the eastern Great Lakes area before
the end of the day Thursday. Ahead of this cold front southerly
winds will bring a return to warm and more humid air for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 00Z, convection has largely moved out of the forecast area,
setting the stage for a generally quiet night with VFR conditions at
most locations. However, there will be a risk for patchy fog across
portions of the forecast area given high surface dewpoints in the
60s and light winds, primarily across the areas that saw heavier
rain today. A secondary weak disturbance may bring a few more
showers to the Southern Tier around 09-12Z Friday, however
confidence in this feature and resultant convective potential
remains low.

Moving into Friday, the warm, moist, and unstable airmass in place
will support the development of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Any convection should be largely
tied to the lake breeze and be confined to high terrain of the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes in the afternoon, with little threat
expected across TAF sites.

Outlook...

Friday night through Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms.
Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge of high pressure will settle over the east coast through the
holiday weekend. An increase in heat and humidity will allow some
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
and evening. Winds and waves outside of any storms will remain
fairly negligible through the next few days. The tranquil pattern
will continue through the end of the week, although thunderstorms
may produce locally higher winds and waves at times each day through
the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The first extended period of summer`s warmth will be upon us this
weekend. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s, of which some
of these daily readings may near record levels. Listed below are
the records for our three climate stations.

BUFFALO...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...89F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...86F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1911

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...1987
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1987


ROCHESTER...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...92F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...70F...1918

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...93F...1911
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1939

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...92F...2006
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1908


WATERTOWN...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...87F...1960
......................Record High Minimum...67F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...85F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...64F...1987

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...63F...2006


A climatic day is between 1 AM EDT to 1 AM EDT.

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871,
while records for Watertown start in 1949.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD
CLIMATE...THOMAS



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 262340
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
740 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hazy, hot and humid conditions are forecast through Memorial Day
weekend. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected each afternoon and evening. Memorial Day may see the
greatest threat for more widespread showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT...Upstream showers continue to weaken as
downstream environment remains relatively dry. We will keep CHC-
SCT pops through the evening until the upstream showers diminish
further as the latest HRRR points toward the chance of some of
these showers may cross the region later this evening. Otherwise,
variable to mostly cloudy skies will continue with some haze on
the increase late tonight.

Prev disc...Summer has arrived. hazy, hot and humid conditions
abound across the Albany Forecast Area. A few isolated showers and
thunderstorms have developed across the southern Adirondacks and
extend southwest into central and western New York. Storms are
moving from WSW to ENE at 20 MPH or less. Radar has estimated
a max local rainfall estimate of 1-2 inches from a storm moving
through Warren County. Temperature hit 90F at Poughkeepsie.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A ridge at the surface and aloft is forecast to strengthen over
the region through Saturday. Warm, moist air will continue to flow
into the region from the Ohio Valley. The strengthening ridge
aloft will provide general subsidence and fair weather. With
increasing low level moisture, the threat of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will increase although they should remain isolated
to scattered due to the lack of a coherent focusing mechanism.
Basically, summer-like weather expected, with hazy, hot and humid
conditions. Lows through the period in the 50s and 60s withs highs
in the 80s to around 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The period starts out on Sunday with an upper level ridge remaining
anchored over the region extending from the western Atlantic
northwestward into the northeast CONUS. Models still indicating
convection initiating during the late morning/early afternoon,
generally due to a moist and unstable air mass in place with little
discernible forcing. Will mention scattered thunderstorms across the
region, but not everyone will see storms. Thunderstorms should
remain below severe levels with weak shear under the ridge, although
will have to watch for how much CAPE can develop. Some stronger
storms with brief gusty winds, downpours, and frequent lightning
will be possible. It will be another very warm and humid day, with
highs well into the 80s for most of the area.

Despite loss of daytime heating, will continue to mention chance
pops for showers/t-storms Sunday night as the upper level ridge
starts to flatten out as a trough approaches from the Great Lakes.
Monday looks to be the day with the best chance of more widespread
showers/t-storms, as the upper trough and its associated cold front
cross the region. The cold front and associated convection should
clear the area sometime during the evening.

Quieter weather is expected for Tuesday, with slightly cooler and
less humid conditions. An isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out
with a weak trough moving through. Tuesday night through Thursday
looks to be a dry and less humid period with high pressure centered
in Quebec providing a cooler and drier northerly flow. The ECMWF and
GFS indicating a possible tropical system that may affect the
Carolinas to remain well south of our region through next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected, however, if a shower were to
move across a TAF location, a period of MVFR is possible later
tonight to around sunrise Friday. The showers seen upstream
continue to struggle with latest trends toward the weakening
stage. Latest HRRR forecasts support the outside chance of a
shower to impact the region this evening so we will keep the VCSH
at this time.

Winds are variable in direction across the area and overall light.
The winds will diminish further this evening. A light southerly
flow will develop Friday.

Outlook...
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Memorial Day: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The season`s first Bermuda high will take control of our weather
lasting at least into the Memorial Day weekend.

Expect warm, increasingly humid weather and continued chances for
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

Each night will see RH values in the 75-100 percent, and RH
values will generally stay above 30 percent each of the next
several afternoon, generally in the moderate range.

Expect daytime winds from the southeast to southwest at 5 to 15
MPH. Winds at night will diminish to 2 to 7 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Forecast precipitation over the next week is expected to be highly
variable as much of it will come from thunderstorms. NWS WPC
forecasts between one half inch and two inches of rain during the
next week, with the highest amounts over the southern Adirondacks
and the least over litchfield County, CT. Widespread river
flooding is not expected, but localized urban or poor drainage
flooding is possible where heavier downpours from thunderstorms
occur.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SND
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND

www.weather.gov/albany




000
FXUS61 KBGM 262337
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
737 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer like warmth will continue, over the next several days.
Although much of the time looks rain free, hit and miss afternoon
showers and thunderstorms, are possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A few very isltd shwrs have dvlps this aftn, but far less than
indicated by the shrt term meso models. Part of the reason is the
lrg amt mid and hi lvl clds limiting the htg. Upr lvl rdgg conts
to be quite strong as well. In any event, Wwll cont with chance
pops this aftn into the eve, but keeps pops blo what models have
indicated. Ovrngt, psblty of pcpn slowly drops as we lose htg.
Some lgt fog psbl but with limited cvrg, have not included in the
grids attm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Rdgg locked in place over the fcst area thru the shrt term. Models
cont to insist that conv will flair in the aftns with htg, and
there is plenty of energy avbl, esp on the NAM. Hwvr, air remains
rather dry, and with mid lvl wrmg, any conv shd be very isltd, and
more likely north and west of the fcst area.

Earlier in the week, GFS,ECMWF showed a backdoor cold fnt driving
wwrd across the fcst area. This feature has weakend in time as the
rdg has and will remain locked in place. Ely flow will remain much
clsr to the cst.

Otr feature is the dvlpg ptnl tropical system off the se cst. This
ptnl low is very slow mvg and shd remain well south of the area
thru the shrt term at least.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 pm Thursday update...

Upper ridge at start becomes a weak trof Tuesday then back to a
ridge Wednesday night. Temperatures remain above normal
throughout. Models in decent agreement and used a blend of the
Superblend and WPCguide. Little change from previous.

On Monday a cold front will increase the forcing and upped the
pops to likely. After that mainly dry until at least Thursday. A
chance Thursday with poor model agreement. Next system may hold
off until Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR most of the time through this TAF period. SCT TSRA developed
in western NY this afternoon but it is struggling eastward as it
runs into a drier more stable air mass. KSYR will see a brief
-SHRA and wind shift as the leftovers of upstream convection drift
through. Remainder of terminals could see an isolated -SHRA this
evening but chances low enough to preclude mentioning it in TAFs.
Late tonight, light valley fog will visit KELM-KAVP with MVFR VIS.
Brief IFR-or-worse not out of the question for KELM, but
combination of cloud cover and decent flow just off the surface
makes dense fog appear unlikely at this time. Instability should
result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms Friday afternoon.
Not in TAFs right now due to lack of uncertainty for which
terminals will be impacted and at what time. Winds generally light
and variable overnight, then southwest 5-8 knots during the day
Friday.

OUTLOOK...

Friday Night through Monday...Mostly VFR. Afternoon-evening TSRA
possible any day with brief restrictions but best chance will be
Sunday-Monday. Also early morning VIS could be reduced in the
moist air mass to MVFR in haze-fog, especially valley site KELM
which could get have brief lower restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KOKX 262219
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
619 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda High pressure will remain across the region through the
weekend. A cold front will pass through the area Monday into
Tuesday. High pressure returns for the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Increased winds in the city due to the weak barrier jet. Otherwise
the forecast was on track. Deep ridging remains over the region
tonight with the western periphery of the Bermuda high across the
region. There was a very weak surface trough across the Lower
Hudson Valley, however, surface based and mixed CAPE remains
limited across the region. Also limiting convection was lack
shortwave energy. A shortwave does move into the ridge late
tonight, however, at that time Cape and instability are very
limited. Will still carry slight chance pops across the lower
Hudson Valley into this evening with areal wording of the
possibility of isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Bermuda high pressure and upper ridging remains across the region
Friday and Friday night. Heights will be rising through the
period. Again a weak surface trough develops across the lower
Hudson Valley Friday afternoon. Instability and CAPE will be
higher than Thursday and afternoon thunderstorms will be possible
inland. Will keep pops at chance, and only a little higher than
Thursday. Friday and Friday night will be more humid than Thursday
as low level moisture is transported into the region on return
flow. Dew points will be rising into the mid 60s, resulting in
higher relative humidity levels with afternoon highs similar to
Thursdays.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the
Atlantic beaches Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly dry conditions expected through the weekend. High
temperatures will be in the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 60s.
There is a change of some showers/thunderstorms Saturday and
Sunday afternoon and evening...mostly across areas north and west
of New York City. A cold front approaches the area on Sunday
afternoon, then moves across the area on Monday and Tuesday. As a
result expect a chance of showers and thunderstorms during this
period. Dry weather returns on Wednesday and Thursday.

High temperatures Monday through Thursday will be in the 70s to
near 80 degrees. Dewpoints will start out in the lower 60s making
it feel a bit muggy but, will drop down into the 50s by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Persistence forecast the next 24 hours with high pressure over
the Western Atlantic and a thermal trough inland each afternoon.
This will result in mainly VFR conditions and a southerly flow
with local seabreeze enhancements.

An isolated thunderstorm is possible each afternoon/evening, but
primarily north and west of the NYC terminals. Chances remain too
low to mention in TAFs.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Friday through Tuesday...
.Friday afternoon-Sunday...Mainly VFR, but sub-VFR possible in
mainly isolated showers and evening thunderstorms.
.Monday and Tuesday...Sub-VFR possible in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
The western periphery of Bermuda high pressure remains across the
waters tonight through Friday night. Winds and seas are expected
to remain below small craft levels into Friday night. Southerly
winds do increase somewhat Friday afternoon into the evening as
the pressure gradient force increases, and ocean seas may approach
small craft levels at that time.

Expect small craft advisory level conditions across the area
waters Saturday through the middle of the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible inland this evening and again
Friday afternoon and evening. No significant widespread
precipitation is expected through the weekend.

Although widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected with
the passage of a cold front Monday and Tuesday, widespread
flooding is not expected at this time. Localized urban or poor
drainage flooding is possible from heavier downpours.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...FIG/MET
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MET




000
FXUS61 KBUF 261451
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1051 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will set up over the western Atlantic
for the next several days bringing summertime warmth. Along with
the warm temperatures, an increase in humidity will also bring
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms each day leading
up to and into the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A few light showers are pushing across Western New York late this
morning ahead of weak warm front. The most concentrated area is
approaching Monroe county near 11am. Temperature and humidity levels
today continue to edge up higher as the front lifts across the
region. Dewpoints have already reached the lower 60s here in Buffalo
and should climb to this level elsewhere by this afternoon. High
temperatures should again reach into the upper 70s and 80s.

A shortwave trough and ribbon of vorticity currently indicated on WV
imagery pushing east of Michigan is forecast to arrive over Western
New York this afternoon where it will be the focus for triggering
showers and thunderstorms. CAPE values per 12z NAM should rise to
between 500 and 1000 j/kg, with greatest instability expected just
east of Buffalo. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
developing this afternoon should work its way eastward across the
forecast area through the early evening hours. Another area of
convection will be possible across the higher terrain east of Lake
Ontario during the afternoon hours as well, though confidence is a
little lower here owing to lower instability and possible lake
shadowing. 0-6km bulk wind shear across the forecast area is
expected to reach only 20-25 kts, so activity is expected to remain
below severe levels, however with PWATS forecast to climb above 1.5
inches, some storms could produce heavy rain.

Tonight, the mid level wave will push into New England. This
combined with diminishing diurnal instability will result in
diminishing showers from west to east. Overnight it will be
mainly dry, although a few spotty showers or thunderstorms still
cannot be ruled out in the weak warm advection regime, especially
if any convectively generated vorticity maxima from upstream drift
into the region. The combination of boundary layer moisture and
light winds will result in patchy fog in any areas with ample
clearing. Lows will be in the mid 60s across the Lake Plains, and
lower 60s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
There will be a very summer-like pattern on Friday and Saturday,
with an upper level ridge axis extending from the Mid-Atlantic to
the lower Great Lakes. There will be little or no large scale ascent
due to this ridging, but moderate instability will support some
showers and thunderstorms along and inland of the lake breeze
boundaries, with mid to upper chance range PoPs each afternoon and
evening.

Areal coverage should be quite sparse, with only low chances for any
precipitation at any one given location. 850mb temps rise to around
+17C to +18C, which will support highs in the mid 80s in most areas
with upper 80s to even 90 possible from the Genesee Valley to
central NY. It will be cooler along the immediate lakeshores,
especially during the afternoon hours when the lake breeze becomes
better established.

Any showers and thunderstorms will slowly diminish in coverage
during the nighttime. Again a few spotty showers or thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out if any convectively generated vorticity maxima
from upstream drift into the region. Overnight temperatures will be
warm with lows in the upper 60s across the Lake Plains and the mid
60s across interior sections.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Summers warmth will begin this period...with a slight break midweek
as both air and dewpoint temperatures will turn down a few degrees.

On Sunday the ridge of high pressure that gripped the start of the
holiday weekend will begin to weaken as a shortwave trough of low
pressure rounds the ridge over the western Great Lakes region. While
there will be chances for afternoon convection over the region
Sunday...this shortwave will likely bring the highest chances for
showers late Sunday night and Monday across the region as it
crosses.

This shortwave looks to also shunt Atlantic moisture to our
east...this moisture flowing northward from tropical activity off
the Southeast states. This will allow for lowering of the humidity
if the plume of moisture remains to our east as well as a dry
period for both Tuesday and Wednesday.

High Sunday will range through the 80s...while Monday through
Wednesday will feature highs from the mid 70s to the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level disturbance and surface warm front will cross the
region today. This will trigger scattered to numerous shower and
thunderstorm activity around/after 18Z. Greatest confidence in
convection is found in the Southern Tier, where instability will be
maximized, while confidence is lower at KBUF/KIAG where SW lake
breeze flow may keep convection limited to the east of the fields.
Likewise, lake shadowing should keep convection east of KART. Shower
and thunderstorm activity will diminish tonight with as the
disturbance will be well east of the forecast area along with the
lost of daytime heating.

Outlook...

Friday through Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge of high pressure will remain across the lakes today.
Some scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and evening. Winds and waves outside of any storms will
remain fairly negligible through the next few days. The tranquil
pattern will continue through the end of the week, although
thunderstorms may produce locally higher winds and waves at times
each day through the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The first extended period of summer`s warmth will be upon us this
weekend. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s, of which some
of these daily readings may near record levels. Listed below are
the records for our three climate stations.

BUFFALO...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...89F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...86F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1911

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...1987
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1987


ROCHESTER...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...92F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...70F...1918

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...93F...1911
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1939

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...92F...2006
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1908


WATERTOWN...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...87F...1960
......................Record High Minimum...67F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...85F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...64F...1987

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...63F...2006


A climatic day is between 1 AM EDT to 1 AM EDT.

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871,
while records for Watertown start in 1949.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...SMITH/TMA
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH/TMA
MARINE...SMITH/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 261406
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1006 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The region will be under the influence of a westward extension of
the Bermuda High through the weekend. A cold front approaches from
the west Monday, then pushes through the area Monday night. This
front then stalls out near or just to the south of the area
through Wednesday as high pressure builds to the north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Under full sun early this morning, and light winds, temperatures
have risen a little more quickly than expected. Have updated sky
cover and temperatures.

With deep-layered ridging area will remain mostly clear. One weak
shortwave moving through northeastern Pennsylvania and into the
lower Hudson Valley was producing some cloudiness to the west and
will bring increased clouds, mainly to the north, through the
morning and into the afternoon. Another shortwave embedded within
ridge approaches late in the day, and with increasing mid- level
moisture there could be a shower or thunderstorm by late,
primarily over the NW zones where CAPES will be higher. Limiting
factors however will be some capping aloft with relatively stable
mid-level lapse rates.

Thinking is that most spots will be a little cooler than
yesterday, more so at the coastal areas as sea breezes will begin
earlier this time around and affect more areas. Additionally, 850
mb temps are forecast to be about a degree Celsius cooler.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the
Atlantic beaches today into this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
500 mb shortwave enters tonight, but weakens as it moves across the
region. Loss of instability will help keep any showers/storms
isolated to scattered in nature.

850-700 mb shortwave slowly moves through the CWA during Friday.
Moisture depth and lift will be greater during the morning, but
CAPES will be higher in the afternoon. Will therefore go no higher
than chance pops for now. High temps still well above normal with
850 mb temps climbing back up to 15-16C. Amount of cloud cover and
sea breezes should offset the max temp potential somewhat, but in
general, going with highs a little cooler than today in most
spots, primarily due to more cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A westward extension of the Mid-Atlantic Ocean based sub-tropical
ridge builds in Friday night-Saturday, then retreats back to the
southeast Saturday night and Sunday. The result will be continued
very warm and humid conditions across the region. There will also
be some mainly diurnal isolated-scattered showers and
thunderstorms from Friday evening through Sunday as well.

Temperatures during this time frame were based on a blend of all
available guidance, with NAM 2-meter temperatures blended in Friday
night-Saturday night, and a mix down from 975-850 hPa, per BUFKIT
soundings, blended in for highs on Saturday. Lows will run around 10
degrees above normal both Friday and Saturday night. Highs Saturday
and Sunday should run around 10-15 degrees above normal.

The forecast for Sunday night-Wednesday is very much dependent on
the interaction between a northern stream shortwave that is forecast
to move across the Great Lakes and a possible closed low near the
mid-Atlantic Coast. There is quite a spread in model solutions, with
the GFS showing the most interaction between these two systems and
the ECMWF the least. The CMC-Global is somewhat in between these two
solutions, but trends closer to the ECMWF with time. It should be
noted that the ECMWF and GFS basically flipped solutions from the
12z to the 00z runs. The result is a low confidence forecast from
Sunday night-Wednesday.

For now will run with pops increasing to chance throughout Sunday
night for showers and thunderstorms, continuing on Monday, then
tapering off Monday night. Given uncertainties in how quickly the
airmass changes on Tuesday, have included some diurnal convection
then, however, if the ECMWF/CMC are correct, Tuesday could end up
dry. Given the overall uncertainty then maintain mainly slight
chance pops for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

For temperatures Sunday night-Wednesday, the Superblend was used,
with above normal temperatures forecast, but not quite as warm
as this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR forecast.

High pressure builds east of the area today.

Light and variable winds this morning will quickly be replaced by
by a a S/SW flow with local seabreeze enhancements. KLGA will see
its typical NE flow off the East River this morning before
switching around to the S by late morning/early aft. Wind speeds
should max to just above 10 kt.

A shower or thunderstorm is possible across the terminals late
tonight into Friday morning. However, chances are too low to
mention in the TAFs. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms
for northwest terminals such as KSWF and KHPN.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KLGA TAF Comments: Sound breeze off East River may persist 1-2
hours longer.

KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is green...which
implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z Friday through Monday...
.Friday through Friday night...Mainly VFR, but sub-VFR possible in
isolated showers and evening thunderstorms.
.Saturday...Mainly VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms north
of NYC/Long Island.
.Sunday...Sub-VFR possible in afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
.Monday...Sub-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
No changes at this time.

A weak to moderate pressure gradient over the region through
Monday will keep winds to 15 kt or less over the waters around
Long Island. With no significant swells forecast during this time
frame, seas will remain below Small Craft levels as well.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant widespread precipitation expected through Thursday
night. Local minor flood impacts from heavier showers/tstms are
possible on Friday.

There is the potential for locally heavy rainfall, for areas mainly
N/W of NYC Saturday and Sunday, with a higher chance of a more
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall from Sunday night into Monday,
and possibly lingering farther into next week. For this weekend, the
main threat is ponding of water on roadways, with a low risk of
minor flooding of urban and poor drainage areas (once again the main
threat this weekend will be to the N/W of NYC). At this time, there
is too much uncertainty to specify any threat for early next week,
other than to note the situation bears watching.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBTV 261130
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
730 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect dry weather for much of the day today with above normal
temperatures and plenty of sunshine. An upper level disturbance will
move across the North Country tonight and with increasing
moisture...the threat for showers and a few thunderstorms will
exist. The Memorial Day weekend will then feature above normal
temperatures...more humid conditions...and the threat for afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 701 AM EDT Thursday...Going forecast in good shape with
only some tweaks to current conditions. Otherwise...weak ridging
aloft and at the surface should keep most of the North Country dry
today. There will be some high clouds this morning...otherwise
expect a good deal of sunshine along with high temperatures in the
upper 70s to mid 80s. These readings are about 10 to 15 degrees
above normal for this time of year. Eventually the flow aloft
backs to the west and southwest as a shortwave trough moves into
the region. This along with increasing moisture suggests the
potential for some isolated convection late in the day across
parts of northern New York.

For tonight the shortwave trough continues to move across the area
and moisture deepens over the area for increasing chances of showers
and a few thunderstorms. Shortwave trough moves east of the area
after midnight and this should help decrease the areal coverage of
the convection from west to east after midnight. Not expecting
anything strong or severe with rainfall amounts generally less
than a quarter inch. Low temperatures will be in the mid 50s to
lower 60s...which are 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 347 AM EDT Thursday...Warm air advection on Friday behind
warm front which continues to move northward. Should have showers
with some thunderstorms during the afternoon and very warm max
temperatures. Cape values will be in the 1500-2000 range,
especially in the Champlain and Saint Lawrence Valleys. Increasing
PWAT values through the day also with possible elevated mixed
layer reaching our forecast area as well. Max temps should be in
the upper 80s to around 90, our hottest day of the year yet.
Showers and thunderstorms will die down Friday night and
temperatures will remain mild, mainly mid 60s. Region will remain
under warm ridge on Saturday and another warm day is on tap,
perhaps even a tad warmer than Friday, upper 80s to around 90.
Once again will have Capes reach over 1500 by Saturday afternoon
and think there may be some showers and thunderstorms once again.
Without a significant surface feature storms will mainly be fueled
by warm temperatures creating instability.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 347 AM EDT Thursday...Generally more of the same for the
extended portion of the forecast with above normal temperatures
continue and chance for afternoon convection most days. Will
remain in warm unstable environment from Saturday night through
early Monday. Finally have a surface feature crossing the area
Monday in the form of a cold front during the afternoon and
evening. This feature brings the highest pops and have likely
mentioned at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 12Z Friday...Expect VFR conditions through much of the
period...especially this morning through late afternoon with only
some high clouds expected. An upper level disturbance will move
into the area tonight and this will enhance the potential for some
showers and a few thunderstorms. The showers should move into
northern New York after 22z and across Vermont after 01z before
ending from west to east after 06z. Ceilings will be lowering
after 06z and most locations should experience MVFR ceilings
between 06z and 12z. Winds will generally be under 10 knots
through the period.

Outlook 12Z Friday through Monday...

12z Friday onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a
few showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest
coverage/threat appears to occur in the Saturday through Monday
time frame.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Evenson/JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 261101
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
701 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect dry weather for much of the day today with above normal
temperatures and plenty of sunshine. An upper level disturbance will
move across the North Country tonight and with increasing
moisture...the threat for showers and a few thunderstorms will
exist. The Memorial Day weekend will then feature above normal
temperatures...more humid conditions...and the threat for afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 701 AM EDT Thursday...Going forecast in good shape with
only some tweaks to current conditions. Otherwise...weak ridging
aloft and at the surface should keep most of the North Country dry
today. There will be some high clouds this morning...otherwise
expect a good deal of sunshine along with high temperatures in the
upper 70s to mid 80s. These readings are about 10 to 15 degrees
above normal for this time of year. Eventually the flow aloft
backs to the west and southwest as a shortwave trough moves into
the region. This along with increasing moisture suggests the
potential for some isolated convection late in the day across
parts of northern New York.

For tonight the shortwave trough continues to move across the area
and moisture deepens over the area for increasing chances of showers
and a few thunderstorms. Shortwave trough moves east of the area
after midnight and this should help decrease the areal coverage of
the convection from west to east after midnight. Not expecting
anything strong or severe with rainfall amounts generally less
than a quarter inch. Low temperatures will be in the mid 50s to
lower 60s...which are 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 347 AM EDT Thursday...Warm air advection on Friday behind
warm front which continues to move northward. Should have showers
with some thunderstorms during the afternoon and very warm max
temperatures. Cape values will be in the 1500-2000 range,
especially in the Champlain and Saint Lawrence Valleys. Increasing
PWAT values through the day also with possible elevated mixed
layer reaching our forecast area as well. Max temps should be in
the upper 80s to around 90, our hottest day of the year yet.
Showers and thunderstorms will die down Friday night and
temperatures will remain mild, mainly mid 60s. Region will remain
under warm ridge on Saturday and another warm day is on tap,
perhaps even a tad warmer than Friday, upper 80s to around 90.
Once again will have Capes reach over 1500 by Saturday afternoon
and think there may be some showers and thunderstorms once again.
Without a significant surface feature storms will mainly be fueled
by warm temperatures creating instability.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 347 AM EDT Thursday...Generally more of the same for the
extended portion of the forecast with above normal temperatures
continue and chance for afternoon convection most days. Will
remain in warm unstable environment from Saturday night through
early Monday. Finally have a surface feature crossing the area
Monday in the form of a cold front during the afternoon and
evening. This feature brings the highest pops and have likely
mentioned at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions are expected through the
entire period. Expect only mid and high level clouds during the
day today with light and variable winds. Deeper moisture moves in
late in the day and especially tonight which will help lower
ceilings and increase the chances for showers. Look for the
showers to move from southwest to northeast...moving into northern
New York after 22z and across Vermont after 01z.

Outlook 06Z Friday through Monday...

06z Friday onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a
few showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest
coverage/threat appears to occur in the Saturday through Monday
time frame.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Evenson/JMG




000
FXUS61 KALY 261025
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
625 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move across the region early today with no
showers expected. The boundary will lift back northward as a warm
front late today and tonight with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Unseasonably warm and humid conditions will exist for
the holiday weekend with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon, most numerous on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As OF 530 AM a few patchy clouds associated with a very weak
frontal passage, were moving through the forecast area.

Temperatures ranged from around 60 in the Hudson valley from Albany
southward, lower to mid 50s in most outlying areas and north of
Albany, but as low as around 50 across portions of the Adirondacks.

It looks as if it will be another very warm day across our parts
with H850 temperatures around the same as yesterday, (+15C). High
pressure will be building offshore so our surface flow looks to
favor a more southerly flow 5-10 mph. High temperatures will be
close to what they were yesterday, perhaps a degree or two lower
since the mixing level might be a little lower than yesterday.
Still, look for highs in the mid to upper 80s Albany south, upper
70s to mid 80s across the higher terrain. The dewpoints in the 50s
might be a couple points higher, but still not all that humid.

By late in the day, a short wave will approach from the west. This
disturbance in conjunction with a boundary sitting just to our south,
could touch off a round of showers and perhaps a thunderstorms,
although SBCAPES do not look that high, generally 500-1000 J/KG at
most. For this reason, for now, only went slight chances for
thunderstorms this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Coverage of showers could expand this evening as a warm front lifts
northward, perhaps with an increase in low level winds inducing
isentropic lift. At this point we are not expecting a washout, but
there could scattered to perhaps numerous showers, especially late
evening.

It should be noted the 00z ECMWF indicated very little activity
tonight as the aforementioned warm front looks to "wash" out as mid
level heights rise. For now, held pops at only 30 percent.

By Friday, this front (or what is left of it) should have lifted
north of most of region. This will allow for an even more humid
airmass, as the season`s first Bermuda high takes full control of
our weather. Even without any significant boundary to focus lift,
there might be enough instability (1000-1500 J/KG) to produce
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Some of these could
produce gusty winds from the Capital region northward with slightly
better 0-6 KM bulk shear around 30KTS, compared to areas south of
the Capital region.

Any scattered convection should diminish after dark Friday
night,leaving us with our first real muggy night.

Saturday looks to start out dry, but it will be humid and could turn
downright hot as H850 temps look to peak around +18C that day. With
normal mixing to about 5000 feet AGL, valleys could easily reach
around 90 with higher terrain well into the 80s. Dewpoints will be
well into the 60s making for heat indices pushing high into the 90s
in the valleys, but likely staying below 100, so no heat headlines
are anticipated.

Once again, despite the lack of good focus for convection,
differential heating and a front not all the far north from us,
might be enough to get scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
going on by Saturday afternoon.

Once again, any activity should diminish after dark. However, as a
front begins to sag south again, convection might re-fire before
dawn Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Unsettled weather and very warm temperatures are expected during the
long term period.

Showers and thunderstorms will be most numerous on Sunday as a
backdoor front slides southwest through the fa. MLMUCAPES are
expected to increase to 1500 to 2500 J/KG Sunday afternoon. Highs on
Sunday are expected to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The backdoor
front will return north as a warm front Sunday night and Monday as a
cold front drops southeast from the eastern Great Lakes Monday night
and stalls across the Mid Atlantic region Tuesday night. There will
be chances for showers and thunderstorms each day mainly during the
afternoon and early evening hours.

Highs on Monday are expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s, with
highs on Tuesday and Wednesday in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Lows
Sunday night are expected to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s, with
lows Monday night in the upper 50s to lower 60s and lows Tuesday
night in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Overall temperatures are expected to be well above normal with
precipitation above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period ending at
12Z Friday.

There will be varying amounts of mid and high clouds through
tonight.

A weak boundary working southward will begin lifting northward
later on today. By that time, it will have more moisture and
possible short wave to work with, so shower threats will increase
with perhaps a thunderstorm later this afternoon into the evening.
For now, just assigned VCSH to all TAFs after 22Z and kept flying
conditions at VFR through tonight.

A light or calm wind will become southerly 5-10KTS by midday into
the afternoon and stay that way into the evening hours...before
becoming light and variable this evening.

Outlook...
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of
EVE SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night through Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak cold front will move across the region tonight with no
showers. The boundary will lift back northward...as a warm front
tomorrow into tomorrow night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected.

The season`s first Bermuda high will take control of our weather
starting Friday and lasting at least into the Memorial Day weekend.

Expect warm, increasingly humid day the continued chance for mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, expect possibly
more numerous coverage on Sunday.

Each night will see RH values in the 75-100 percent, and RH values
will generally stay above 30 percent each of the next several
afternoon, generally in the moderate range.

The wind today will start out light and variable, become southerly 5-
15 mph and generally staying in the direction through at least
Saturday (lighter overnight).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrology issues are likely through at least the next
5 days ending Tuesday.

Today will start out dry, However, as warm front lifts northward,
there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms late today into
Friday with average river basin values below a quarter of an inch.


PWAT values will surge to well over an inch by Friday so any
thunderstorm on that day could contain localized heavy rainfall, but
not enough coverage to produce any significant rises on most if not
all of our watersheds. The same will be true for Saturday, with
just scattered thunderstorms expected.

Sunday could be a different story. We might have more expansive
coverage of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing more
extensive heavy rainfall. This rainfall could result in some
significant within bank rises on some streams and rivers. However it
has been dry of late, so right now not expecting any river flooding.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/Wasula
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/Wasula




000
FXUS61 KALY 260821
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
415 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move across the region early today with no
showers expected. The boundary will lift back northward as a warm
front late today and tonight with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Unseasonably warm and humid conditions will exist for
the holiday weekend with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon, most numerous on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As OF 415 AM a tranquil summer like night continued as a few patchy
clouds, associated with a very weak frontal passage, were moving
through. However, no shower activity was being picked up by any of
the radars.

Temperatures ranged from around 60 in the Hudson valley from Albany
southward, lower to mid 50s in most outlying areas and north of
Albany, but as low as around 50 across portions of the Adirondacks.

For the rest of the overnight, tranquil conditions will continue.
Temperatures will drop another degree or two, meaning temperatures
well end up above normal for late May. Patches of fog will form near
some bodies of water, and cooler mountain valleys, but that will be
the exception not the rule.

It looks as if it will be another very warm day across our parts
with H850 temperatures around the same as yesterday, (+15C). High
pressure will be building offshore so our surface flow looks to
favor a more southerly flow 5-10 mph. High temperatures will be
close to what they were yesterday, perhaps a degree or two lower
since the mixing level might be a little lower than yesterday.
Still, look for highs in the mid to upper 80s Albany south, upper
70s to mid 80s across the higher terrain. The dewpoints in the 50s
might be a couple points higher, but still not all that humid.

By late in the day, a short wave will approach from the west. This
disturbance in conjunction with a boundary sitting just to our south,
could touch off a round of showers and perhaps a thunderstorms,
although SBCAPES do not look that high, generally 500-1000 J/KG at
most. For this reason, for now, only went slight chances for
thunderstorms this afternoon.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Coverage of showers could expand this evening as a warm front lifts
northward, perhaps with an increase in low level winds inducing
isentropic lift. At this point we are not expecting a washout, but
there could scattered to perhaps numerous showers, especially late
evening.

It should be noted the 00z ECMWF indicated very little activity
tonight as the aforementioned warm front looks to "wash" out as mid
level heights rise. For now, held pops at only 30 percent.

By Friday, this front (or what is left of it) should have lifted
north of most of region. This will allow for an even more humid
airmass, as the season`s first Bermuda high takes full control of
our weather. Even without any significant boundary to focus lift,
there might be enough instability (1000-1500 J/KG) to produce
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Some of these could
produce gusty winds from the Capital region northward with slightly
better 0-6 KM bulk shear around 30KTS, compared to areas south of
the Capital region.

Any scattered convection should diminish after dark Friday
night,leaving us with our first real muggy night.

Saturday looks to start out dry, but it will be humid and could turn
downright hot as H850 temps look to peak around +18C that day. With
normal mixing to about 5000 feet AGL, valleys could easily reach
around 90 with higher terrain well into the 80s. Dewpoints will be
well into the 60s making for heat indices pushing high into the 90s
in the valleys, but likely staying below 100, so no heat headlines
are anticipated.

Once again, despite the lack of good focus for convection,
differential heating and a front not all the far north from us,
might be enough to get scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
going on by Saturday afternoon.

Once again, any activity should diminish after dark. However, as a
front begins to sag south again, convection might re-fire before
dawn Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Unsettled weather and very warm temperatures are expected during the
long term period.

Showers and thunderstorms will be most numerous on Sunday as a
backdoor front slides southwest through the fa. MLMUCAPES are
expected to increase to 1500 to 2500 J/KG Sunday afternoon. Highs on
Sunday are expected to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The backdoor
front will return north as a warm front Sunday night and Monday as a
cold front drops southeast from the eastern Great Lakes Monday night
and stalls across the Mid Atlantic region Tuesday night. There will
be chances for showers and thunderstorms each day mainly during the
afternoon and early evening hours.

Highs on Monday are expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s, with
highs on Tuesday and Wednesday in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Lows
Sunday night are expected to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s, with
lows Monday night in the upper 50s to lower 60s and lows Tuesday
night in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Overall temperatures are expected to be well above normal with
precipitation above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expect overnight through the day. The only
exception was KGFL where we decided to throw in a three hour TEMPO
for mvfr mist from 08Z-11Z. Otherwise the crossover temperatures
was calculated to be in the lower 50s and most of the TAF sites
will not get that low overnight and should preclude any fog.

There will be varying amounts of mid and high clouds through today
after the morning peak, but all should be easily above the 3 KFT
MVFR/VFR threshold.

A weak boundary working southward tonight (with no fanfare) will
begin lifting northward later on the day. By that time, it will have
more moisture and possible short wave to work with, so shower
threats will increase with perhaps a thunderstorm later this
afternoon into the evening. For now, just assigned VCSH to all TAFs
after 22Z and kept flying conditions at VFR.

A light or calm wind will become southerly 5-10KTS by midday into
the afternoon and stay that way into the evening hours.

Outlook...
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of
EVE SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night through Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak cold front will move across the region tonight with no
showers. The boundary will lift back northward...as a warm front
tomorrow into tomorrow night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected.

The season`s first Bermuda high will take control of our weather
starting Friday and lasting at least into the Memorial Day weekend.

Expect warm, increasingly humid day the continued chance for mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, expect possibly
more numerous coverage on Sunday.

Each night will see RH values in the 75-100 percent, and RH values
will generally stay above 30 percent each of the next several
afternoon, generally in the moderate range.

The wind today will start out light and variable, become southerly 5-
15 mph and generally staying in the direction through at least
Saturday (lighter overnight).


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrology issues are likely through at least the next
5 days ending Tuesday.

Today will start out dry, However, as warm front lifts northward,
there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms late today into
Friday with average river basin values below a quarter of an inch.


PWAT values will surge to well over an inch by Friday so any
thunderstorm on that day could contain localized heavy rainfall, but
not enough coverage to produce any significant rises on most if not
all of our watersheds. The same will be true for Saturday, with
just scattered thunderstorms expected.

Sunday could be a different story. We might have more expansive
coverage of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing more
extensive heavy rainfall. This rainfall could result in some
significant within bank rises on some streams and rivers. However it
has been dry of late, so right now not expecting any river flooding.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/Wasula
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/Wasula




000
FXUS61 KBTV 260747
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
347 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect dry weather for much of the day today with above normal
temperatures and plenty of sunshine. An upper level disturbance will
move across the North Country tonight and with increasing
moisture...the threat for showers and a few thunderstorms will
exist. The Memorial Day weekend will then feature above normal
temperatures...more humid conditions...and the threat for afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 347 AM EDT Thursday...Weak ridging...both aloft and at the
surface...should keep most of the North Country dry today. There
will be some high clouds this morning...otherwise expect a good
deal of sunshine along with high temperatures in the upper 70s to
mid 80s. These readings are about 10 to 15 degrees above normal
for this time of year. Eventually the flow aloft backs to the west
and southwest as a shortwave trough moves into the region. This
along with increasing moisture suggests the potential for some
isolated convection late in the day across parts of northern New
York.

For tonight the shortwave trough continues to move across the area
and moisture deepens over the area for increasing chances of showers
and a few thunderstorms. Shortwave trough moves east of the area
after midnight and this should help decrease the areal coverage of
the convection from west to east after midnight. Not expecting
anything strong or severe with rainfall amounts generally less
than a quarter inch. Low temperatures will be in the mid 50s to
lower 60s...which are 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 347 AM EDT Thursday...Warm air advection on Friday behind
warm front which continues to move northward. Should have showers
with some thunderstorms during the afternoon and very warm max
temperatures. Cape values will be in the 1500-2000 range,
especially in the Champlain and Saint Lawrence Valleys. Increasing
PWAT values through the day also with possible elevated mixed
layer reaching our forecast area as well. Max temps should be in
the upper 80s to around 90, our hottest day of the year yet.
Showers and thunderstorms will die down Friday night and
temperatures will remain mild, mainly mid 60s. Region will remain
under warm ridge on Saturday and another warm day is on tap,
perhaps even a tad warmer than Friday, upper 80s to around 90.
Once again will have Capes reach over 1500 by Saturday afternoon
and think there may be some showers and thunderstorms once again.
Without a significant surface feature storms will mainly be fueled
by warm temperatures creating instability.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 347 AM EDT Thursday...Generally more of the same for the
extended portion of the forecast with above normal temperatures
continue and chance for afternoon convection most days. Will
remain in warm unstable environment from Saturday night through
early Monday. Finally have a surface feature crossing the area
Monday in the form of a cold front during the afternoon and
evening. This feature brings the highest pops and have likely
mentioned at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions are expected through the
entire period. Expect only mid and high level clouds during the
day today with light and variable winds. Deeper moisture moves in
late in the day and especially tonight which will help lower
ceilings and increase the chances for showers. Look for the
showers to move from southwest to northeast...moving into northern
New York after 22z and across Vermont after 01z.

Outlook 06Z Friday through Monday...

06z Friday onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a
few showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest
coverage/threat appears to occur in the Saturday through Monday
time frame.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Evenson/JMG




000
FXUS61 KBGM 260636
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
236 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level ridge of warm air will remain in place as weaker
low level systems pass by the area. This will keep temperatures
well above normal with a small risk of afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast into the holiday
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
615 PM Update...Spotty light showers are long gone with just some
patchy scattered to broken mid clouds left over the area. We
removed any mention of showers for early this evening with this
update and also made some minor adjustments to temperature and dew
point grids for the evening based on latest observations and
trends. Similar to last night, expect a pretty good drop in temps
immediately after sunset due to dew points still being fairly low
and decoupling winds.

Original Discussion...Wv trickling thru this aftn triggered some
very lgt shwrs over the xtrm north along with a bit of cld cvr.
That system will pass well east of the area ovrngt lvg us gnrly
dry with sct clds. Temps has actually topped out in the mid and
upr 80s ahd of the clds but with upr 40s dew pts, shd drop fairly
quickly again this evening. Next wv aprchs for thu.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Have established a fairly stable ptrn with a stubborn upr rdg over
the est cst. Our fcst area is on the nrn and ern edge of the rdg
so any system topping the rdg may bring a chance of tstms, esp
during aftn htg.

First wv aprchs thu and passes thu ngt. this system shd bring some
sct to isltd tstms thu aftn into thu eve...flwd by renewed rdgg
on fri.

Another wv passes well west of the area on sat which could trigger
conv as well, again peaking in the aftn with htg.

It will be quite warm. While each day rchs into the 80s, sat looks
to be the wrmest as the rdg conts to bld and chance for conv is
lowest. Wld not be surprised to see a cpl temps hit 90f sat aftn,
esp over the nrn Finger Lakes into the SYR area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 pm Wednesday update...

Upper ridge at start becomes a weak trof Tuesday then back to a
ridge Thursday. Convection Saturday night into Monday night, then
maybe a break the rest of the long term. Temperatures remain above
normal throughout. Models in good agreement and used a blend of
the Superblend and WPCguide. Little change from previous.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions will continue through TAF valid time.
A weak frontal boundary in the vicinity later today will bring a
mid deck into the region mainly during the afternoon. Isolated
convection is also possible this afternoon but not included due
to limited areal coverage and very late in TAF period. If
confidence increases as we get closer, a tempo group may be added
with the 12Z update.

Light and variable through sunrise becoming S/SW by this afternoon
at 5 to 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...

Tonight through Monday...Mostly VFR. Afternoon and evening
thunderstorms possible any day with brief restrictions but best
chance will be Saturday to Monday. Also during this period rain
showers could reduce conditions. Starting Friday visibilities
could be reduced in the moist air mass to MVFR in haze and fog.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/PCF
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...Heden/RRM




000
FXUS61 KALY 260603
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
203 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move across the region
tonight.  The boundary will lift back northward as a warm front
tomorrow into tomorrow night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Warm and humid conditions will persist for the
holiday weekend with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 145 AM EDT...all was quiet on all fronts in spite of a weak
cold front draped over our northern section, slipping southward.
This is a very weak shallow feature, and with very little moisture
or forcing we do not expect any convection to happen tonight.

We will enjoy a mild summery night with lows dipping to around 60
Albany southward in the Hudson valley, 50s most other places with a
few upper 40s across the Adirondacks. The wind will be light or
calm.

Some patches of fog will form, but not as much as last night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Later today...most of the day should be dry...as our forecast leans
closer to the latest NAM/EC trends with the front starting to lift
back north as a warm front during the afternoon time frame. The
Showalter stability values do not become very negative...and it will
take a little time for the low-level moisture to increase.
Clouds will increase from the south and west during the
afternoon...with the best chc of showers or a thunderstorm west of
the Hudson River Valley. Highs will again run above normal by
10-15 degrees with highs in the mid 80s /with a few upper 80s in
the mid Hudson Valley/ in valley locations...and 70s to lower 80s
over the hills and mountains.

Tonight...The better synoptic lift with the warm front is during
this time frame. Weak elevated instability is implied with pockets
of Showalter values of 0 to -2C. The weak warm advection should
help expand the shower and thunderstorm coverage ahead of weak
midlevel short-wave with the front. High chc pops were kept in the
forecast with the chc of showers and thunderstorms. Lows will be
of the wet bulb variety in the upper 50 to mid 60s.

Friday...Some residual showers and thunderstorms will persist from
the Capital Region north and east in the morning. Sfc dewpoints into
the lower to mid 60s in the warm sector. It will become hot and
humid with H850 temps rising to +15C to +17C with highs in the
upper 80s to near 90F in the lower elevations...and u70s to mid
80s over the hills and mountains. Some pop-up thunderstorms may
occur in the afternoon.

Fri night into Saturday...The subtropical or Bermuda high builds
in with heights exceeding 585 dams at H500. It will be warm and
humid with lows in the 60s with any diurnally driven convection
diminishing quickly Fri night. Some differential heating/pop-up
showers and thunderstorms are possible especially SAT afternoon.
Despite increasing CAPE and PWATS /1-1.5"/ their is no clear
trigger to focus convection and a low to mid level CAP should be
setting up to suppress it. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible
with the above normal PWATS. Highs once again will be in the 80s
with some lower 90s in the valley locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A Bermuda high is expected to have a hold of the eastern United
States. Our region will be in the warm sector of a low pressure
system for the latter half of the long holiday weekend. This places
us in a warm and unstable airmass with chances for convection each
day mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. At this time, it
appears the low pressure system`s cold front should cross the region
late Monday night/Tuesday morning. With the flow aloft becoming
zonal over the region the cold front is expected to stall to are
south likely in the vicinity of I-80 and the New York Metropolitan
area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Overall highs are expected to run above normal by around 10 degrees
both for highs and lows.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expect overnight through the day. The only
exception was KGFL where we decided to throw in a three hour TEMPO
for mvfr mist from 08Z-11Z. Otherwise the crossover temperatures
was calculated to be in the lower 50s and most of the TAF sites
will not get that low overnight and should preclude any fog.

There will be varying amounts of mid and high clouds through today
after the morning peak, but all should be easily above the 3 KFT
MVFR/VFR threshold.

A weak boundary working southward tonight (with no fanfare) will
begin lifting northward later on the day. Now it will have more
moisture and possible short wave to work with, so shower threats
will increase with perhaps a thunderstorm later this afternoon into
the evening. For now, just assigned VCSH to all TAFs after 22Z and
kept flying conditions at VFR.

A light or calm wind will become southerly 5-10KTS by midday into
the afternoon and stay that way into the evening hours.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak cold front will move across the region
tonight. The boundary will lift back northward...as a warm front
tomorrow into tomorrow night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

The RH values will recover to 80 to 100 percent tonight...and then
lower to 35 to 45 percent tomorrow afternoon. Expect a nearly full
recovery Thursday night to 90 to 100 percent with showers and
thunderstorms around.

The winds will decrease from the southwest to northwest at 10 to
20 mph...to light in variable in direction at 5 mph or less
tonight. The winds will be from the south to southeast at 5 to 10
mph tomorrow into tomorrow night.

Warm and humid conditions will persist for the holiday weekend
with the Bermuda high in control...as isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon.
This feature will bring humid days and nights will a full RH
recovery.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrology issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Monday.

A warm front will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms late tomorrow afternoon into Friday morning.
Rainfall amounts will vary from a few hundredths to a quarter of
an inch or so locally.

As a Bermuda high forms, we can expect warm and increasingly
humid weather Friday through the weekend. While most of that time
will be rainfree, there is an increasing chance of afternoon and
evening thunderstorms each day. These look scattered...but as
precipitable water values increase well above normal in the inch
to an inch and a half range, then locally heavy rainfall will
possible through the holiday weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/Wasula
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/Wasula
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/Wasula




000
FXUS61 KOKX 260546
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
146 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure weakens and moves farther offshore through Thursday.
Meanwhile a weak cold front moves in Thursday. This front will back
north as a warm front Thursday Night. A Bermuda high will
then dominate through the weekend, bringing summertime warmth as
a series of weak upper level disturbances touch off convection
each afternoon and early evening. A back door cold front will
approach Sunday into Sunday night, then retreat back north early
next week as a weak front slowly approaches from the west and a
broad area of low pressure slowly approaches from the south.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Forecast is on track. Minor adjustments made to t/td and sky
based on latest obs and trends.

Otherwise...mainly clear skies to start however...high clouds
will begin to spill over the upper ridge axis overnight. Used a
blend of mav/met for lows with manual adjustments up near some
coastal rural locations due to partial onshore flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
For Thursday, some slight ridging takes place aloft with overall the
ridge still exhibiting a rather flat structure. The models are
pointing to a relatively stronger shortwave that will be riding
along the top of the ridge, arriving into western portions of the
region by Thursday Evening. At the surface, high pressure will shift
farther offshore and weaken. A cold front moves across during the
day and weakens as it does so. This will bring some extra clouds
during the day. With the weak pressure gradient, sea breezes set up
sooner with a more southerly component. This will keep coastal
location temperatures a few degrees cooler compared to the previous
day while interior locations will be nearly the same temperatures as
the previous day.

Weather will start out dry with enough subsidence of residual ridging
and then with the approach of the shortwave as well as increasing
instability, some showers and thunderstorms will be possible late in
the day and evening. The subsidence will still be enough to prevent
much in the way of any convection from developing. With the approach
of the shortwave, places north and west of NYC will have a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the day since those
locations will be relatively closer to the shortwave.

For Thursday Night, the shortwave moves across while at the surface,
the weak cold front will move back north as a warm front. The
presence of the frontal boundary and the increased positive
vorticity advection aloft will allow for a relatively greater chance
of showers. Convection with the lack of CAPE will be minimal with
any coverage being isolated.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Earlier forecast reasoning still holds, with summertime warmth
through the weekend as longwave upper ridging moves across. A warm
front will clear the entire area Fri morning, and with H8 temps near
16C and H5-10 thicknesses near 570 dm, high temps are likely to
reach the lower 90s both Fri/Sat NW of NYC, with 80s elsewhere
except for the south shore of eastern Long Island. There is a good
chance for late day tstms from NYC north/west as a mid level
disturbance interacts with a lee trough. Wind fields are not
particularly strong aloft, but deep layer shear might still support
a few strong to locally severe storms. Any late convection on
Saturday will be isolated in nature and tied more to differential
heating in/near the higher terrain.

The northern stream disturbance moving across eastern Canada has
trended faster, which means any associated back door cold front may
not make it into the area at all, or only into eastern CT/Long
Island. So Sunday will still be a warm day, though not quite as warm
as the previous two days. Once again looking mainly at scattered
late day convection tied either to the front or to a lee trough NW
of NYC, and as another weak mid level vort max approaches from the
west.

Monday should be cooler, with more cloud cover as shortwave energy
Atlantic moisture ride up the coast, well in advance of a low off
the Southeast coast, and on the back side of the retreating offshore
ridging. Once this passes, we should return to warm weather and
chances for sct mainly inland late day convection as another upper
ridge moves in from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR forecast.

High pressure builds to the south overnight and
Thursday.

Light west/southwest expected overnight.

Light winds in the morning become south around 10 kt. Sea breezes
are expected by afternoon, sooner across CT terminals.

KLGA may be affected by a sound breeze which may make winds turn
to an east or southeast direction between 12Z and 15Z. However,
there is a low chance of this happening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Friday through Monday...
.Thursday night through Friday morning...Mainly VFR but sub-VFR
possible in showers/evening thunderstorms.
.Friday through Friday night...Mainly VFR, but sub-VFR possible in
isolated showers and evening thunderstorms.
.Saturday...Mainly VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms north
of NYC/Long Island.
.Sunday...Sub-VFR possible in afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
.Monday...Sub-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
With the pressure gradient overall remaining rather weak...the seas
and wind gusts will stay below SCA criteria through Thursday
Night.

S-SW flow increasing to near 20 kt may bring a brief period of 5-ft
seas to the western ocean waters late day Fri into Fri evening.
Otherwise, expect quiet winds/waves outside of any potential
thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant widespread precipitation expected through Thursday
Night.

Local minor flood impacts from heavier showers/tstms are possible
with any late day convection, on Friday and Sunday, mainly NW of
NYC. Heavy rain may also be possible on Monday with an upper level
disturbance and Atlantic moisture riding up the coast, but timing
and location are uncertain, and at this time looks likely to pass
just offshore Long Island.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...Goodman
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...Goodman/JM
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/JM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 260225
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1025 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will cross the area tonight with little fanfare
outside a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm across northern
counties. High pressure returns for Thursday with mainly dry and
seasonably warm temperatures expected. Thereafter, warm and
summerlike weather continues into the Holiday Weekend along with
moderate humidity levels. While much of the period will be dry,
there will be a daily threat of afternoon, early evening showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 1021 PM EDT Wednesday...updated forecast to remove mention
of showers as threat of any precip has ended. in addition...with
the very limited areal coverage of the isolated showers
earlier...have reduced the fog coverage tonight across the
northeast kingdom/eastern sections. still thinking the sheltered
valleys of the passumpsic and ct river valleys will see some
patchy fog after midnight. dewpoints have jumped into the
lower/mid 50s this evening...but expect them to drop back into the
40s/lower 50s overnight as north winds behind weak boundary
advects drier air into our region. still looking at lows mainly in
the upper 40s to upper 50s.

By later tonight skies gradually trend mostly clear and winds
become light as surface high pressure returns to the region. Some
patchy fog will be possible in any areas that do receive rainfall
this evening, with highest probabilities across northeastern VT.
Low temperatures a blend of bias-corrected and MOS-based guidance,
generally from 45 to 55 with some variability.

On Thursday surface high pressure returns to the region along with
mainly sunny skies and light winds. Model-averaged 925 mb
temperatures run about a degree or two cooler than today, so little
airmass change expected with afternoon highs continuing in the upper
70s to lower 80s for most spots. By later in the day a gradual
increase in moisture is expected across the western portions of the
forecast area in northern NY. Some model differences on how robust
this process is, it being dependent on the future evolution of the
ridge axis transitioning to our east over time.  At this point have
introduced lower end chances of precipitation from the Adirondacks
west into the southern SLV from mid-afternoon onward to account for
this uncertainty. Regardless, most of the day will be dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 406 PM EDT Wednesday...A warm front will traverse across
the North Country Thursday night through Friday, producing showers
and thunderstorms with the best chance for thunderstorms occurring
Friday afternoon. PWATS increase to 1-1.5 inches which could help
showers and thunderstorms create periods of heavy rain. NAM BUFKIT
forecast sounding profiles show CAPE values greater than 1000J/kg
with enough daytime heating to reach convective temperatures. This
along with possible elevated mixed layer that will move across the
St Lawrence Valley and Northern tier of CWA support potential for
convection on Friday. Caveat being lack of lift on Friday, so will
mainly rely on heating and moist atmosphere.

Showers, clouds and warmer air filtering in will keep min
temperatures Thursday night in the 50s to low 60s. 925mb
temperatures increase into the low 20s on Friday, resulting in
maxes in the 70s to mid 80s.

Friday night will see showers and thunderstorms diminish with
nocturnal cooling settling in and ridging aloft begins to build to
our south and east. Min temperatures will remain above normal,
generally in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 406 PM EDT Wednesday...Unsettled weather expected
throughout the long term as we remain on the periphery of the
upper ridge. This will result in chance for showers and
thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon, throughout the
holiday weekend. Max temperatures on Saturday will be in the 80s
with some spots in the southern valleys nearing 90 when the upper
ridge axis begins to crest over the region.

On Sunday, upper level disturbances will move into the region
keeping chances for showers and thunderstorms. While upstream,
upper level shortwave will move into the Great Lakes region,
reflected at the surface as a gradually strengthening low pressure
system. This system will drag a cold front across the area Monday
with showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the front, models
diverge on how dry conditions will be.

Overall, above normal temperatures continue with summer-like
conditions...aka showers and thunderstorm potential.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 00Z Friday...VFR expected through the period. A weak
frontal boundary has passed through the region and winds have
shifted to northwesterly at 05-10 knots and will go light and
variable overnight before resuming lightly out of the north
friday morning. There is a small window for potential fog at SLK
from 09-11z and possible IFR conditions along with that.
Confidence is not high at this time so have gone with a MVFR in
the taf to reflect the potential.

Outlook 18Z Thursday through Monday...

18Z Thu onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest
coverage/threat appears to occur in the Saturday through Monday
time frame.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/Taber
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG/MV




000
FXUS61 KALY 260005
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
805 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move across the region
tonight.  The boundary will lift back northward as a warm front
tomorrow into tomorrow night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Warm and humid conditions will persist for the
holiday weekend with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 800 PM EDT... not much change to the forecast at this time
with weak frontal boundary drifting southward with some isolated
showers. The other batch of showers across Litchfield County
continues to dissipate. So just FEW-SCT clouds, mainly the mid
level variety, to continue this evening. A period of clearing is
expected overnight before some increase in clouds arrives from
upstream.

Prev Disc...A weak cold front continues to move across eastern NY
and western New England with a band of clouds and some isolated
showers/sprinkles from the Capital Region north...and a wind shift
from the south to southwest to the west to northwest. Some wind
gusts have been close to 30 kts...and temps spiked into the upper
80s to 90F /KPOU/ ahead of the front. The low-levels remain dry
with sfc dewpts in the 40s to l50s. That will change FRI into the
holiday weekend.

The boundary will stall over eastern NY and south-central New
England. There is no clean synoptic forcing with the front...so we
expect the isolated showers to die off with the daytime
heating...and variable cloudy conditions to persist tonight. The
winds will become light and variable which will allow temps to
fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s in many of the valley
spots...and upper 40s to mid 50s over the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tomorrow...Most of the day should be dry...as our forecast leans
closer to the latest NAM/EC trends with the front starting to lift
back north as a warm front during the afternoon time frame. The
Showalter stability values do not become very negative...and it
will take a little time for the low-level moisture to increase.
Clouds will increase from the south and west during the
afternoon...with the best chc of showers or a thunderstorm west of
the Hudson River Valley. Highs will again run above normal by
10-15 degrees with highs in the mid 80s /with a few upper 80s in
the mid Hudson Valley/ in valley locations...and 70s to lower 80s
over the hills and mountains.

Tonight...The better synoptic lift with the warm front is during
this time frame. Weak elevated instability is implied with pockets
of Showalter values of 0 to -2C. The weak warm advection should
help expand the shower and thunderstorm coverage ahead of weak
midlevel short-wave with the front. High chc pops were kept in the
forecast with the chc of showers and thunderstorms. Lows will be
of the wet bulb variety in the upper 50 to mid 60s.

Friday...Some residual showers and thunderstorms will persist from
the Capital Region north and east in the morning. Sfc dewpts into
the lower to mids 60s in the warm sector. It will become hot and
humid with H850 temps rising to +15C to +17C with highs in the
upper 80s to near 90F in the lower elevations...and u70s to mid
80s over the hills and mountains. Some pop-up thunderstorms may
occur in the afternoon.

Fri night into Saturday...The subtropical or Bermuda high builds
in with heights exceeding 585 dams at H500. It will be warm and
humid with lows in the 60s with any diurnally driven convection
diminishing quickly Fri night. Some differential heating/pop-up
showers and thunderstorms are possible especially SAT afternoon.
Despite increasing CAPE and PWATS /1-1.5"/ their is no clear
trigger to focus convection and a low to mid level CAP should be
setting up to suppress it. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible
with the above normal PWATS. Highs once again will be in the 80s
with some lower 90s in the valley locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A Bermuda high is expected to have a hold of the eastern United
States. Our region will be in the warm sector of a low pressure
system for the latter half of the long holiday weekend. This places
us in a warm and unstable airmass with chances for convection each
day mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. At this time, it
appears the low pressure system`s cold front should cross the region
late Monday night/Tuesday morning. With the flow aloft becoming
zonal over the region the cold front is expected to stall to are
south likely in the vicinity of I-80 and the New York Metropolitan
area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Overall highs are expected to run above normal by around 10 degrees
both for highs and lows.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions to continue with the potential for some
mist/fog mainly at KGFL. There will be an increase in clouds late
tonight and through Thursday along with the chance of
showers/storms during the afternoon. For now, we will place VCSH.

Winds will diminish from the westerly direction around 10kts to
light and variable tonight. Then a gradual shift to the south-
southeast less than 10kts Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak cold front will move across the region
tonight. The boundary will lift back northward...as a warm front
tomorrow into tomorrow night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

The RH values will recover to 80 to 100 percent tonight...and then
lower to 35 to 45 percent tomorrow afternoon. Expect a nearly full
recovery Thursday night to 90 to 100 percent with showers and
thunderstorms around.

The winds will decrease from the southwest to northwest at 10 to
20 mph...to light in variable in direction at 5 mph or less
tonight. The winds will be from the south to southeast at 5 to 10
mph tomorrow into tomorrow night.

Warm and humid conditions will persist for the holiday weekend
with the Bermuda high in control...as isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon.
This feature will bring humid days and nights will a full RH
recovery.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrology issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Monday.

A warm front will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms late tomorrow afternoon into Friday morning.
Rainfall amounts will vary from a few hundredths to a quarter of
an inch or so locally.

As a Bermuda high forms, we can expect warm and increasingly
humid weather Friday through the weekend. While most of that time
will be rainfree, there is an increasing chance of afternoon and
evening thunderstorms each day. These look scattered...but as
precipitable water values increase well above normal in the inch
to an inch and a half range, then locally heavy rainfall will
possible through the holiday weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/Wasula
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/Wasula




000
FXUS61 KBTV 252319
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
719 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will cross the area tonight with little fanfare
outside a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm across northern
counties. High pressure returns for Thursday with mainly dry and
seasonably warm temperatures expected. Thereafter, warm and
summerlike weather continues into the Holiday Weekend along with
moderate humidity levels. While much of the period will be dry,
there will be a daily threat of afternoon, early evening showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 656 PM EDT Wednesday...updated forecast to decrease areal
coverage of showers and thunderstorms and remove mention of gusty
winds. water vapor shows deep layer aloft across our
region...which has suppressed any convective development. best
combination of dynamics associated with tail of 5h vort and some
limited 850 to 500mb moisture will be across northern vt into the
northeast kingdom through 03z. have continued to mention chance
pops with slight chance of thunder...as current radar shows
two weak cells approaching the international border. utilizing the
distance arrival tool has them approaching our border by 00z. will
continue to monitor for potential lightning...but so far nothing
noted. rest of forecast in good shape.

By later tonight skies gradually trend mostly clear and winds
become light as surface high pressure returns to the region. Some
patchy fog will be possible in any areas that do receive rainfall
this evening, with highest probabilities across northeastern VT.
Low temperatures a blend of bias-corrected and MOS-based guidance,
generally from 45 to 55 with some variability.

On Thursday surface high pressure returns to the region along with
mainly sunny skies and light winds. Model-averaged 925 mb
temperatures run about a degree or two cooler than today, so little
airmass change expected with afternoon highs continuing in the upper
70s to lower 80s for most spots. By later in the day a gradual
increase in moisture is expected across the western portions of the
forecast area in northern NY. Some model differences on how robust
this process is, it being dependent on the future evolution of the
ridge axis transitioning to our east over time.  At this point have
introduced lower end chances of precipitation from the Adirondacks
west into the southern SLV from mid-afternoon onward to account for
this uncertainty. Regardless, most of the day will be dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 406 PM EDT Wednesday...A warm front will traverse across
the North Country Thursday night through Friday, producing showers
and thunderstorms with the best chance for thunderstorms occurring
Friday afternoon. PWATS increase to 1-1.5 inches which could help
showers and thunderstorms create periods of heavy rain. NAM BUFKIT
forecast sounding profiles show CAPE values greater than 1000J/kg
with enough daytime heating to reach convective temperatures. This
along with possible elevated mixed layer that will move across the
St Lawrence Valley and Northern tier of CWA support potential for
convection on Friday. Caveat being lack of lift on Friday, so will
mainly rely on heating and moist atmosphere.

Showers, clouds and warmer air filtering in will keep min
temperatures Thursday night in the 50s to low 60s. 925mb
temperatures increase into the low 20s on Friday, resulting in
maxes in the 70s to mid 80s.

Friday night will see showers and thunderstorms diminish with
nocturnal cooling settling in and ridging aloft begins to build to
our south and east. Min temperatures will remain above normal,
generally in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 406 PM EDT Wednesday...Unsettled weather expected
throughout the long term as we remain on the periphery of the
upper ridge. This will result in chance for showers and
thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon, throughout the
holiday weekend. Max temperatures on Saturday will be in the 80s
with some spots in the southern valleys nearing 90 when the upper
ridge axis begins to crest over the region.

On Sunday, upper level disturbances will move into the region
keeping chances for showers and thunderstorms. While upstream,
upper level shortwave will move into the Great Lakes region,
reflected at the surface as a gradually strengthening low pressure
system. This system will drag a cold front across the area Monday
with showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the front, models
diverge on how dry conditions will be.

Overall, above normal temperatures continue with summer-like
conditions...aka showers and thunderstorm potential.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 00Z Friday...VFR expected through the period. A weak
frontal boundary has passed through the region and winds have
shifted to northwesterly at 05-10 knots and will go light and
variable overnight before resuming lightly out of the north
friday morning. There is a small window for potential fog at SLK
from 09-11z and possible IFR conditions along with that.
Confidence is not high at this time so have gone with a MVFR in
the taf to reflect the potential.

Outlook 18Z Thursday through Monday...

18Z Thu onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest
coverage/threat appears to occur in the Saturday through Monday
time frame.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/Taber
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG/MV




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