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000
FXUS61 KBGM 091751
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1251 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE AREA
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH LATE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD DEVELOP
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 12 NOON... LATEST SATELLITE VISIBLE LOOPS INDICATE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONTAL
COMPONENT OF THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
NORTH OF ONEIDA COUNTY TOWARD THE ADIRONDACKS. SCATTERED FLURRIES
ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COVER THE WARM SECTOR PART OF
THE WAVE WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PA.
ALL HIGH RESOLUTION AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL PORTION OF THE
WAVE OVER THE FINGER LAKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON... WITH THIS AREA
COALESCING INTO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS AROUND
AN INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTH
AND WEST.


VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY HAS ROTATED THROUGH A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE EARLY THIS MORNING GIVING THE AREA A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUM, GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. AT 4 AM THIS LIGHT SNOW
WAS CONTINUING TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND SHOULD BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK.

THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO
NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATER TODAY. DUE TO A LACK OF ANY FORCING
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH COULD BE MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORMALLY
WARMER AREAS WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH 40 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THIS EVENING AN AREA OF WEAK SFC LOW PRES WILL LIFT
ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND GIVE THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA AROUND
TWO INCHES OF SNOW. THIS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LUZERNE, SOUTHERN LACKAWANNA, SOUTHERN WAYNE AND SOUTHERN PIKE
COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE, A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH CENTRAL NY DURING THE EVENING HOURS BRINGING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND MORE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. AFTER
MIDNIGHT ONCE THIS FEATURE PASSES THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK SFC LOW PRES WITHIN THE VERTICALLY STACKED
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND USHER IN COLDER AIR AND
MORE SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL
SHOW POPS INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ACROSS NYS BUT JUST CHC IN NE PA. AGAIN ACCUMS WILL BE
LIGHT GENERALLY AROUND ONE INCH. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 30.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD WITH T85 DROPPING TO
AROUND -20C BY THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE AROUND 290-300 DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS WELL ALIGNED ALONG WITH GOOD SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND
DECENT SNOW GROWTH REGION, BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT AIRMASS BECOMES
FAIRLY DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WHICH WILL LIMIT ACCUMS. THROUGH A
36 HOUR PERIOD TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES LOOKS POSSIBLE
ACROSS WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY AND NORTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY IF CONDITIONS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE. REST OF AREA WILL
JUST SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMS. LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
IN THE TEENS DUE TO LIMITED RECOVERY FROM MINS. THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL BE ZERO TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 AM UPDATE... NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE 0Z CYCLE OF MODEL RUNS.
FORECAST HIGHS SATURDAY OF 5 (SYRACUSE) AND 6 (BINGHAMTON AIRPORT)
WOULD BE THE COLDEST DAYS SINCE FEBRUARY 20TH AND 6TH
RESPECTIVELY. MINOR TWEAKS OVER THE WEEKEND INCLUDED EXPANDED AREA
OF LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF
PA, AND INCREASING POPS OVER THE FINGER LAKES THROUGH BINGHAMTON
AREA. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

220 PM MONDAY UPDATE...
OVERALL, A MUCH MORE WINTER-LIKE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY, COMPARED
TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN FOR MOST OF THIS SEASON SO FAR.

IN THE BIG-PICTURE, A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS
TROUGH APPEARS AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO DRIVE BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR
INTO NY AND PA FOR A FEW DAYS.

DAILY WEATHER-WISE, LINGERING LAKE SNOWS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT, AS THE WIND FLOW SHIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST, OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.

ON FRIDAY, AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH, AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL SWING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT
LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF, THEN MORE LAKE SNOWS KICK IN BEHIND IT, AS A BITTER
COLD AIR MASS COMES IN ON N-NW WINDS. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND PA`S
NORTHERN TIER SHOULD GET IN ON THE LAKE-EFFECT ACTION NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOST AREAS, AS A 320-350 WIND
FLOW IS PROGGED.

THE BIG STORY FRI-SUN WILL BE THE BITTER COLD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO IN MANY SPOTS. WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
GRADUAL MOVEMENT WILL PROVIDE A VARIETY OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
AND TIMING ISSUES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS...MIXED VFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALIZED IFR IN SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS WESTERN AREAS MOVING EAST. LOTS OF BINOVC CENTRAL NY.

REDEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF SNOW AREAS IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN ABOUT 21Z-06Z THIS
EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND
PERSISTENT FOR SVRL HOURS. ANOTHER BREAK IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AND THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AT LEAST
TO MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS. ADDITIONAL SNOW BANDS WITH IFR
VSBY/MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS BECOMES LIKELY AGAIN AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE CNY FLIGHT OPERATIONS AREA WITH LESS
EFFECT NEPA.

WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITHIN THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

THURS THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND BANDS OF MORE INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF. LESS COVERAGE AND TIME
AFFECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MSE/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN/MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...JAB



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000
FXUS61 KALY 091732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1232 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IS ALLOWING FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...WHILE CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE PERSISTING FARTHER N AND NW...MOST
PERSISTENT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WE EXPECT THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD...SO OCCASIONAL BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY HANG TOUGH ACROSS NW AREAS...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.

AS SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPS...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER/MID 30S...WHILE HOLDING GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
20S WHERE CLOUDS PERSIST...SUCH AS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT LAKE-INDUCED TROF JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CONTINUED-SHSN THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...THOUGH MAINLY AFTER DARK.  THIS WILL BE MIXED WITH BR...SO
ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  VERY LITTLE WIND AT THE
SURFACE OR THROUGH THE COLUMN THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THUS...MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY...WITH AS LOW AS IFR VSBY OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/ELH
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 091724
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1224 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EST...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION AS INTENSIFYING STORM OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
A WEAK/BROAD LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE.

PREV DISC...
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA.

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP /IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS/ WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE. THE BEST SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...AND PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT
ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE JUST A
COATING FOR MOST SPOTS AT MOST. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER WILL PROBABLY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. THERE WILL BE LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SPEEDS AND DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

PERSISTENT LAKE-INDUCED TROF JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CONTINUED-SHSN THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...THOUGH MAINLY AFTER DARK.  THIS WILL BE MIXED WITH BR...SO
ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  VERY LITTLE WIND AT THE
SURFACE OR THROUGH THE COLUMN THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THUS...MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY...WITH AS LOW AS IFR VSBY OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...ELH
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBGM 091706
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1206 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE AREA
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH LATE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD DEVELOP
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 12 NOON... LATEST SATELLITE VISIBLE LOOPS INDICATE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONTAL
COMPONENT OF THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
NORTH OF ONEIDA COUNTY TOWARD THE ADIRONDACKS. SCATTERED FLURRIES
ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COVER THE WARM SECTOR PART OF
THE WAVE WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PA.
ALL HIGH RESOLUTION AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL PORTION OF THE
WAVE OVER THE FINGER LAKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON... WITH THIS AREA
COALESCING INTO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS AROUND
AN INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTH
AND WEST.


VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY HAS ROTATED THROUGH A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE EARLY THIS MORNING GIVING THE AREA A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUM, GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. AT 4 AM THIS LIGHT SNOW
WAS CONTINUING TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND SHOULD BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK.

THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO
NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATER TODAY. DUE TO A LACK OF ANY FORCING
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH COULD BE MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORMALLY
WARMER AREAS WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH 40 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THIS EVENING AN AREA OF WEAK SFC LOW PRES WILL LIFT
ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND GIVE THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA AROUND
TWO INCHES OF SNOW. THIS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LUZERNE, SOUTHERN LACKAWANNA, SOUTHERN WAYNE AND SOUTHERN PIKE
COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE, A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH CENTRAL NY DURING THE EVENING HOURS BRINGING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND MORE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. AFTER
MIDNIGHT ONCE THIS FEATURE PASSES THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK SFC LOW PRES WITHIN THE VERTICALLY STACKED
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND USHER IN COLDER AIR AND
MORE SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL
SHOW POPS INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ACROSS NYS BUT JUST CHC IN NE PA. AGAIN ACCUMS WILL BE
LIGHT GENERALLY AROUND ONE INCH. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 30.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD WITH T85 DROPPING TO
AROUND -20C BY THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE AROUND 290-300 DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS WELL ALIGNED ALONG WITH GOOD SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND
DECENT SNOW GROWTH REGION, BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT AIRMASS BECOMES
FAIRLY DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WHICH WILL LIMIT ACCUMS. THROUGH A
36 HOUR PERIOD TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES LOOKS POSSIBLE
ACROSS WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY AND NORTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY IF CONDITIONS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE. REST OF AREA WILL
JUST SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMS. LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
IN THE TEENS DUE TO LIMITED RECOVERY FROM MINS. THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL BE ZERO TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 AM UPDATE... NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE 0Z CYCLE OF MODEL RUNS.
FORECAST HIGHS SATURDAY OF 5 (SYRACUSE) AND 6 (BINGHAMTON AIRPORT)
WOULD BE THE COLDEST DAYS SINCE FEBRUARY 20TH AND 6TH
RESPECTIVELY. MINOR TWEAKS OVER THE WEEKEND INCLUDED EXPANDED AREA
OF LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF
PA, AND INCREASING POPS OVER THE FINGER LAKES THROUGH BINGHAMTON
AREA. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

220 PM MONDAY UPDATE...
OVERALL, A MUCH MORE WINTER-LIKE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY, COMPARED
TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN FOR MOST OF THIS SEASON SO FAR.

IN THE BIG-PICTURE, A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS
TROUGH APPEARS AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO DRIVE BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR
INTO NY AND PA FOR A FEW DAYS.

DAILY WEATHER-WISE, LINGERING LAKE SNOWS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT, AS THE WIND FLOW SHIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST, OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.

ON FRIDAY, AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH, AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL SWING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT
LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF, THEN MORE LAKE SNOWS KICK IN BEHIND IT, AS A BITTER
COLD AIR MASS COMES IN ON N-NW WINDS. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND PA`S
NORTHERN TIER SHOULD GET IN ON THE LAKE-EFFECT ACTION NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOST AREAS, AS A 320-350 WIND
FLOW IS PROGGED.

THE BIG STORY FRI-SUN WILL BE THE BITTER COLD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO IN MANY SPOTS. WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONE AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED ALL OF OUR
TERMINALS. SOME MVFR VSBYS STILL POSSIBLE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AT
KSYR AND KRME IN LIGHT SNOW, BUT OVERALL MOSTLY DRY THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WHILE DRY, MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY FROM KITH
SOUTH.

LATER TODAY, AFTER 20Z, A NEW AREA OF SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD ALL
TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF KRME. AT LEAST MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS
EXPECTED. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT IFR CIGS MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE SNOWFALL, ESPECIALLY AS WE GET CLOSER TO 0Z. SNOW
ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST, BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. AFTER THAT TIME A
RETURN TO VFR IS EXZPECTED.

.OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH SAT...AT KSYR/KRME, PERSISTENT IFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS/HEAVIER LAKE-EFFECT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE, RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MORE PERIODIC, FROM PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MSE/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN/MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...HEDEN




000
FXUS61 KBGM 091706
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1206 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE AREA
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH LATE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD DEVELOP
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 12 NOON... LATEST SATELLITE VISIBLE LOOPS INDICATE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONTAL
COMPONENT OF THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
NORTH OF ONEIDA COUNTY TOWARD THE ADIRONDACKS. SCATTERED FLURRIES
ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COVER THE WARM SECTOR PART OF
THE WAVE WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PA.
ALL HIGH RESOLUTION AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL PORTION OF THE
WAVE OVER THE FINGER LAKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON... WITH THIS AREA
COALESCING INTO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS AROUND
AN INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTH
AND WEST.


VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY HAS ROTATED THROUGH A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE EARLY THIS MORNING GIVING THE AREA A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUM, GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. AT 4 AM THIS LIGHT SNOW
WAS CONTINUING TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND SHOULD BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK.

THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO
NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATER TODAY. DUE TO A LACK OF ANY FORCING
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH COULD BE MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORMALLY
WARMER AREAS WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH 40 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THIS EVENING AN AREA OF WEAK SFC LOW PRES WILL LIFT
ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND GIVE THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA AROUND
TWO INCHES OF SNOW. THIS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LUZERNE, SOUTHERN LACKAWANNA, SOUTHERN WAYNE AND SOUTHERN PIKE
COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE, A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH CENTRAL NY DURING THE EVENING HOURS BRINGING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND MORE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. AFTER
MIDNIGHT ONCE THIS FEATURE PASSES THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK SFC LOW PRES WITHIN THE VERTICALLY STACKED
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND USHER IN COLDER AIR AND
MORE SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL
SHOW POPS INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ACROSS NYS BUT JUST CHC IN NE PA. AGAIN ACCUMS WILL BE
LIGHT GENERALLY AROUND ONE INCH. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 30.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD WITH T85 DROPPING TO
AROUND -20C BY THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE AROUND 290-300 DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS WELL ALIGNED ALONG WITH GOOD SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND
DECENT SNOW GROWTH REGION, BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT AIRMASS BECOMES
FAIRLY DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WHICH WILL LIMIT ACCUMS. THROUGH A
36 HOUR PERIOD TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES LOOKS POSSIBLE
ACROSS WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY AND NORTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY IF CONDITIONS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE. REST OF AREA WILL
JUST SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMS. LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
IN THE TEENS DUE TO LIMITED RECOVERY FROM MINS. THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL BE ZERO TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 AM UPDATE... NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE 0Z CYCLE OF MODEL RUNS.
FORECAST HIGHS SATURDAY OF 5 (SYRACUSE) AND 6 (BINGHAMTON AIRPORT)
WOULD BE THE COLDEST DAYS SINCE FEBRUARY 20TH AND 6TH
RESPECTIVELY. MINOR TWEAKS OVER THE WEEKEND INCLUDED EXPANDED AREA
OF LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF
PA, AND INCREASING POPS OVER THE FINGER LAKES THROUGH BINGHAMTON
AREA. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

220 PM MONDAY UPDATE...
OVERALL, A MUCH MORE WINTER-LIKE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY, COMPARED
TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN FOR MOST OF THIS SEASON SO FAR.

IN THE BIG-PICTURE, A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS
TROUGH APPEARS AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO DRIVE BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR
INTO NY AND PA FOR A FEW DAYS.

DAILY WEATHER-WISE, LINGERING LAKE SNOWS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT, AS THE WIND FLOW SHIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST, OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.

ON FRIDAY, AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH, AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL SWING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT
LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF, THEN MORE LAKE SNOWS KICK IN BEHIND IT, AS A BITTER
COLD AIR MASS COMES IN ON N-NW WINDS. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND PA`S
NORTHERN TIER SHOULD GET IN ON THE LAKE-EFFECT ACTION NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOST AREAS, AS A 320-350 WIND
FLOW IS PROGGED.

THE BIG STORY FRI-SUN WILL BE THE BITTER COLD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO IN MANY SPOTS. WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONE AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED ALL OF OUR
TERMINALS. SOME MVFR VSBYS STILL POSSIBLE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AT
KSYR AND KRME IN LIGHT SNOW, BUT OVERALL MOSTLY DRY THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WHILE DRY, MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY FROM KITH
SOUTH.

LATER TODAY, AFTER 20Z, A NEW AREA OF SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD ALL
TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF KRME. AT LEAST MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS
EXPECTED. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT IFR CIGS MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE SNOWFALL, ESPECIALLY AS WE GET CLOSER TO 0Z. SNOW
ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST, BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. AFTER THAT TIME A
RETURN TO VFR IS EXZPECTED.

.OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH SAT...AT KSYR/KRME, PERSISTENT IFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS/HEAVIER LAKE-EFFECT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE, RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MORE PERIODIC, FROM PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MSE/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN/MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...HEDEN



000
FXUS61 KBGM 091706
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1206 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE AREA
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH LATE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD DEVELOP
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 12 NOON... LATEST SATELLITE VISIBLE LOOPS INDICATE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONTAL
COMPONENT OF THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
NORTH OF ONEIDA COUNTY TOWARD THE ADIRONDACKS. SCATTERED FLURRIES
ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COVER THE WARM SECTOR PART OF
THE WAVE WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PA.
ALL HIGH RESOLUTION AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL PORTION OF THE
WAVE OVER THE FINGER LAKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON... WITH THIS AREA
COALESCING INTO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS AROUND
AN INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 AT LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTH
AND WEST.


VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY HAS ROTATED THROUGH A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE EARLY THIS MORNING GIVING THE AREA A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUM, GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. AT 4 AM THIS LIGHT SNOW
WAS CONTINUING TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND SHOULD BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK.

THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO
NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATER TODAY. DUE TO A LACK OF ANY FORCING
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH COULD BE MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORMALLY
WARMER AREAS WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH 40 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THIS EVENING AN AREA OF WEAK SFC LOW PRES WILL LIFT
ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND GIVE THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA AROUND
TWO INCHES OF SNOW. THIS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LUZERNE, SOUTHERN LACKAWANNA, SOUTHERN WAYNE AND SOUTHERN PIKE
COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE, A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH CENTRAL NY DURING THE EVENING HOURS BRINGING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND MORE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. AFTER
MIDNIGHT ONCE THIS FEATURE PASSES THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK SFC LOW PRES WITHIN THE VERTICALLY STACKED
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND USHER IN COLDER AIR AND
MORE SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL
SHOW POPS INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ACROSS NYS BUT JUST CHC IN NE PA. AGAIN ACCUMS WILL BE
LIGHT GENERALLY AROUND ONE INCH. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 30.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD WITH T85 DROPPING TO
AROUND -20C BY THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE AROUND 290-300 DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS WELL ALIGNED ALONG WITH GOOD SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND
DECENT SNOW GROWTH REGION, BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT AIRMASS BECOMES
FAIRLY DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WHICH WILL LIMIT ACCUMS. THROUGH A
36 HOUR PERIOD TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES LOOKS POSSIBLE
ACROSS WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY AND NORTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY IF CONDITIONS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE. REST OF AREA WILL
JUST SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMS. LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
IN THE TEENS DUE TO LIMITED RECOVERY FROM MINS. THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL BE ZERO TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 AM UPDATE... NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE 0Z CYCLE OF MODEL RUNS.
FORECAST HIGHS SATURDAY OF 5 (SYRACUSE) AND 6 (BINGHAMTON AIRPORT)
WOULD BE THE COLDEST DAYS SINCE FEBRUARY 20TH AND 6TH
RESPECTIVELY. MINOR TWEAKS OVER THE WEEKEND INCLUDED EXPANDED AREA
OF LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF
PA, AND INCREASING POPS OVER THE FINGER LAKES THROUGH BINGHAMTON
AREA. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

220 PM MONDAY UPDATE...
OVERALL, A MUCH MORE WINTER-LIKE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY, COMPARED
TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN FOR MOST OF THIS SEASON SO FAR.

IN THE BIG-PICTURE, A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS
TROUGH APPEARS AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO DRIVE BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR
INTO NY AND PA FOR A FEW DAYS.

DAILY WEATHER-WISE, LINGERING LAKE SNOWS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT, AS THE WIND FLOW SHIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST, OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.

ON FRIDAY, AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH, AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL SWING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT
LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF, THEN MORE LAKE SNOWS KICK IN BEHIND IT, AS A BITTER
COLD AIR MASS COMES IN ON N-NW WINDS. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND PA`S
NORTHERN TIER SHOULD GET IN ON THE LAKE-EFFECT ACTION NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOST AREAS, AS A 320-350 WIND
FLOW IS PROGGED.

THE BIG STORY FRI-SUN WILL BE THE BITTER COLD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO IN MANY SPOTS. WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONE AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED ALL OF OUR
TERMINALS. SOME MVFR VSBYS STILL POSSIBLE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AT
KSYR AND KRME IN LIGHT SNOW, BUT OVERALL MOSTLY DRY THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WHILE DRY, MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY FROM KITH
SOUTH.

LATER TODAY, AFTER 20Z, A NEW AREA OF SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD ALL
TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF KRME. AT LEAST MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS
EXPECTED. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT IFR CIGS MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE SNOWFALL, ESPECIALLY AS WE GET CLOSER TO 0Z. SNOW
ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST, BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. AFTER THAT TIME A
RETURN TO VFR IS EXZPECTED.

.OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH SAT...AT KSYR/KRME, PERSISTENT IFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS/HEAVIER LAKE-EFFECT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE, RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MORE PERIODIC, FROM PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MSE/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN/MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...HEDEN



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 091627
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1127 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES EAST OUT TO
SEA. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT
AND PASS EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN ZONES LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...DRY CONDS IN PLACE AS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH. A LINGERING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE 30-35 PER MOS GUIDANCE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...THE
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP...WITH A STRONG MID
LEVEL VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND SWING ACROSS
WED MORNING. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE INVERTED TROUGH IN THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH CLOSER
TO THE AREA...WITH A WEAK LOW CENTER ALSO DEVELOPING OFFSHORE IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THESE WILL BOTH HELP TO
FOCUS BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MAINLY OVER NYC METRO...LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SIDED MOSTLY
WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH THE NAM MOSTLY HAVING HELD
COURSE OVER THE PAST 24 HR AND THE GFS TRENDING NORTH TOWARD A
SIMILAR FCST SOLUTION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW BEST LIFT AT TEMPS
IDEAL FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH...AND ALSO SHOW VERY WEAK STATIC
STABILITY...WITH A DEEP SATURATED LAYER AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE ENHANCED AS A RESULT LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW. AS A RESULT...ISSUED A WINTER WX
ADVY FOR NYC METRO...LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT FOR TONIGHT INTO
WED MORNING.

THESE INVERTED TROUGHS OFTEN OUT-PERFORM MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOMETIMES ALSO END UP NORTH OF MODEL FCST...SO THE SITUATION
TONIGHT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HAD EVEN BRIEFLY
CONSIDERED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND
BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT WITH SREF STAYING TO THE SOUTH AND CAM
GUIDANCE NOT PRODUCING APPRECIABLE QPF CONSIDERING THE CONVECTIVE
ASPECT...DECIDED ON THE ADVY AS THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LONGWAVE EASTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN INTO SATURDAY WITH A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST AND MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS...AND COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...PROBABLY AN INCH OR
SO...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. THE FIRST PUSH OF COLDER AIR
INTO THE AREA MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SHORTWAVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING
AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOW
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO TRACK WEST
OF THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 15 TO AS MUCH AS 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE
AIR MASS MONDAY. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AND ENTER
THE REGION TONIGHT.

MOSTLY MVFR TODAY...BUT OCCASIONAL VFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. SOME
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS WELL. FLIGHT CATS LOWER THIS EVENING
WITH SNOW.

CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLE LIFR-VLIFR VIS AT TIMES.

NE WINDS 10-15KT TODAY. WINDS COULD VEER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TO ESE FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS...BUT SPEEDS WOULD ALSO
DIMINISH.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY FLURRIES THIS MORNING SHOULD END BY 16Z.
VSBYS DUE TO FLURRIES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6SM.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC FLURRIES BEFORE 16Z. VSBYS DUE TO
ANY FLURRIES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6SM.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MRNG.
.THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OT 25 KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. SEAS 8-10 FT TODAY SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE BEFORE
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE BEGINS
LATE DAY WED INTO WED NIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ON ALL
WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON THE OUTER OCEAN
WATERS.

SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THU INTO FRI AS
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST. GUSTS THURSDAY ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS
THE FIRST PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL
IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW AND AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING SHOULD BE LESS THAN
1/2 INCH...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS.

LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...THEN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING...SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL PEAKING. IN ADDITION...WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE TO THE NE AS
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
OF LONG ISLAND AND NYC. THE HIGH END OF THE FORECAST RANGE COULD
COME CLOSE TO THE WATER LEVELS REACHED DURING YESTERDAYS MORNING
FOR THE BAYS OF NYC AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

THEREAFTER...WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS WITH TUESDAY EVENINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO LOWER...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE INTO THE WED MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE.

HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE TODAY A MODERATE THREAT FOR
DUNE TOE EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED
POTENTIAL FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE ISLAND. THIS IS BASED ON MODELED
IMPACTS OF GALE CENTER FROM THE USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ009-010.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ071-073-078-079-081-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ074.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071-073-078-177.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-081-
     178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ075-080-178-179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 091627
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1127 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES EAST OUT TO
SEA. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT
AND PASS EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN ZONES LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...DRY CONDS IN PLACE AS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH. A LINGERING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE 30-35 PER MOS GUIDANCE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...THE
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP...WITH A STRONG MID
LEVEL VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND SWING ACROSS
WED MORNING. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE INVERTED TROUGH IN THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH CLOSER
TO THE AREA...WITH A WEAK LOW CENTER ALSO DEVELOPING OFFSHORE IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THESE WILL BOTH HELP TO
FOCUS BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MAINLY OVER NYC METRO...LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SIDED MOSTLY
WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH THE NAM MOSTLY HAVING HELD
COURSE OVER THE PAST 24 HR AND THE GFS TRENDING NORTH TOWARD A
SIMILAR FCST SOLUTION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW BEST LIFT AT TEMPS
IDEAL FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH...AND ALSO SHOW VERY WEAK STATIC
STABILITY...WITH A DEEP SATURATED LAYER AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE ENHANCED AS A RESULT LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW. AS A RESULT...ISSUED A WINTER WX
ADVY FOR NYC METRO...LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT FOR TONIGHT INTO
WED MORNING.

THESE INVERTED TROUGHS OFTEN OUT-PERFORM MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOMETIMES ALSO END UP NORTH OF MODEL FCST...SO THE SITUATION
TONIGHT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HAD EVEN BRIEFLY
CONSIDERED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND
BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT WITH SREF STAYING TO THE SOUTH AND CAM
GUIDANCE NOT PRODUCING APPRECIABLE QPF CONSIDERING THE CONVECTIVE
ASPECT...DECIDED ON THE ADVY AS THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LONGWAVE EASTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN INTO SATURDAY WITH A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST AND MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS...AND COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...PROBABLY AN INCH OR
SO...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. THE FIRST PUSH OF COLDER AIR
INTO THE AREA MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SHORTWAVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING
AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOW
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO TRACK WEST
OF THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 15 TO AS MUCH AS 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE
AIR MASS MONDAY. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AND ENTER
THE REGION TONIGHT.

MOSTLY MVFR TODAY...BUT OCCASIONAL VFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. SOME
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS WELL. FLIGHT CATS LOWER THIS EVENING
WITH SNOW.

CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLE LIFR-VLIFR VIS AT TIMES.

NE WINDS 10-15KT TODAY. WINDS COULD VEER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TO ESE FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS...BUT SPEEDS WOULD ALSO
DIMINISH.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY FLURRIES THIS MORNING SHOULD END BY 16Z.
VSBYS DUE TO FLURRIES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6SM.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC FLURRIES BEFORE 16Z. VSBYS DUE TO
ANY FLURRIES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6SM.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MRNG.
.THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OT 25 KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. SEAS 8-10 FT TODAY SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE BEFORE
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE BEGINS
LATE DAY WED INTO WED NIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ON ALL
WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON THE OUTER OCEAN
WATERS.

SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THU INTO FRI AS
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST. GUSTS THURSDAY ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS
THE FIRST PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL
IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW AND AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING SHOULD BE LESS THAN
1/2 INCH...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS.

LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...THEN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING...SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL PEAKING. IN ADDITION...WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE TO THE NE AS
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
OF LONG ISLAND AND NYC. THE HIGH END OF THE FORECAST RANGE COULD
COME CLOSE TO THE WATER LEVELS REACHED DURING YESTERDAYS MORNING
FOR THE BAYS OF NYC AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

THEREAFTER...WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS WITH TUESDAY EVENINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO LOWER...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE INTO THE WED MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE.

HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE TODAY A MODERATE THREAT FOR
DUNE TOE EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED
POTENTIAL FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE ISLAND. THIS IS BASED ON MODELED
IMPACTS OF GALE CENTER FROM THE USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ009-010.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ071-073-078-079-081-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ074.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071-073-078-177.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-081-
     178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ075-080-178-179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 091627
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1127 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES EAST OUT TO
SEA. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT
AND PASS EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN ZONES LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...DRY CONDS IN PLACE AS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH. A LINGERING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE 30-35 PER MOS GUIDANCE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...THE
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP...WITH A STRONG MID
LEVEL VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND SWING ACROSS
WED MORNING. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE INVERTED TROUGH IN THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH CLOSER
TO THE AREA...WITH A WEAK LOW CENTER ALSO DEVELOPING OFFSHORE IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THESE WILL BOTH HELP TO
FOCUS BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MAINLY OVER NYC METRO...LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SIDED MOSTLY
WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH THE NAM MOSTLY HAVING HELD
COURSE OVER THE PAST 24 HR AND THE GFS TRENDING NORTH TOWARD A
SIMILAR FCST SOLUTION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW BEST LIFT AT TEMPS
IDEAL FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH...AND ALSO SHOW VERY WEAK STATIC
STABILITY...WITH A DEEP SATURATED LAYER AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE ENHANCED AS A RESULT LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW. AS A RESULT...ISSUED A WINTER WX
ADVY FOR NYC METRO...LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT FOR TONIGHT INTO
WED MORNING.

THESE INVERTED TROUGHS OFTEN OUT-PERFORM MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOMETIMES ALSO END UP NORTH OF MODEL FCST...SO THE SITUATION
TONIGHT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HAD EVEN BRIEFLY
CONSIDERED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND
BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT WITH SREF STAYING TO THE SOUTH AND CAM
GUIDANCE NOT PRODUCING APPRECIABLE QPF CONSIDERING THE CONVECTIVE
ASPECT...DECIDED ON THE ADVY AS THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LONGWAVE EASTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN INTO SATURDAY WITH A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST AND MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS...AND COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...PROBABLY AN INCH OR
SO...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. THE FIRST PUSH OF COLDER AIR
INTO THE AREA MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SHORTWAVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING
AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOW
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO TRACK WEST
OF THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 15 TO AS MUCH AS 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE
AIR MASS MONDAY. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AND ENTER
THE REGION TONIGHT.

MOSTLY MVFR TODAY...BUT OCCASIONAL VFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. SOME
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS WELL. FLIGHT CATS LOWER THIS EVENING
WITH SNOW.

CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLE LIFR-VLIFR VIS AT TIMES.

NE WINDS 10-15KT TODAY. WINDS COULD VEER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TO ESE FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS...BUT SPEEDS WOULD ALSO
DIMINISH.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY FLURRIES THIS MORNING SHOULD END BY 16Z.
VSBYS DUE TO FLURRIES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6SM.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC FLURRIES BEFORE 16Z. VSBYS DUE TO
ANY FLURRIES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6SM.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MRNG.
.THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OT 25 KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. SEAS 8-10 FT TODAY SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE BEFORE
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE BEGINS
LATE DAY WED INTO WED NIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ON ALL
WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON THE OUTER OCEAN
WATERS.

SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THU INTO FRI AS
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST. GUSTS THURSDAY ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS
THE FIRST PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL
IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW AND AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING SHOULD BE LESS THAN
1/2 INCH...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS.

LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...THEN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING...SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL PEAKING. IN ADDITION...WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE TO THE NE AS
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
OF LONG ISLAND AND NYC. THE HIGH END OF THE FORECAST RANGE COULD
COME CLOSE TO THE WATER LEVELS REACHED DURING YESTERDAYS MORNING
FOR THE BAYS OF NYC AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

THEREAFTER...WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS WITH TUESDAY EVENINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO LOWER...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE INTO THE WED MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE.

HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE TODAY A MODERATE THREAT FOR
DUNE TOE EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED
POTENTIAL FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE ISLAND. THIS IS BASED ON MODELED
IMPACTS OF GALE CENTER FROM THE USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ009-010.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ071-073-078-079-081-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ074.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071-073-078-177.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-081-
     178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ075-080-178-179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBUF 091554
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1054 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A STALLED STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
THE REGION SHROUDED UNDER CLOUDS TODAY...ONLY LIGHT NUISANCE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE AWAY
TONIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL DEEPEN IN ITS WAKE WITH ACCUMULATING LAKE
SNOWS DEVELOPING EAST OF BOTH LAKES. THESE LAKE SNOWS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH TIME OUR FIRST TRUE ARCTIC AIRMASS OF
THE SEASON WILL INVADE THE AREA. FRIGID TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO WITH DANGEROUSLY
LOW WIND CHILL VALUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN NY LATE THIS MORNING. VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AND MAINLY WILL BE CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES WITH ROADS
PRIMARILY STAYING JUST WET. FURTHER TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST SOME
WEAK LIFT IN THE VCNTY OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS HELPING TO
GENERATE A BETTER ORGANIZED AREA OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS
THE TUG HILL RANGING FROM A TRACE UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE TUG HILL.

AN IMPRESSIVE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH
COVERING 2/3 OF THE EASTERN U.S TODAY. IN ADDITION TO THIS
IMPRESSIVE PATTERN...A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW HAS SET UP SHOP
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THIS FEATURE IN
PLACE LITTLE TO NO REAL DYNAMICS REMAIN. THIS HAS AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN JUST A WEALTH OF CLOUDS COVER AND SOME SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION. WHILE THERE WILL REMAIN A DEEP ENOUGH DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH AREA WITHIN THE CLOUD COVER...THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
STRUGGLE TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY SNOW WITHIN THE
LIGHTER PERCIPITION. THEREFORE...ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY
ONLY ACCUMULATED ON GRASSY SURFACES THE REST OF TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE BROAD STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY `OPEN UP` AND DRIFT
EAST TO THE ADIRONDACKS. WHILE GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL REMAIN
WEAK UNDER THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...DEEPENING COLD AIR ITS WAKE WILL
ESTABLISH ENOUGH LAKE DRIVEN INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. THIS MESOSCALE LAKE RESPONSE MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE NIGHT
TO GET GOING THOUGH...AS LAKE DELTA T`S SHOULD NOT REACH CRITICAL
VALUES UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR LAKE SNOWS BY
DAYBREAK WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE A COUPLE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. OUTSIDE OF
THIS LAKE EFFECT...THERE WILL ONLY BE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW WHICH HAS BEEN MEANDERING TO OUR WEST
WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE RIPPLING DOWN THE INVERTED TROUGH INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW
MOVES EAST OF OUR LATITUDE...WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE
AND ASCENT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS. BY
THURSDAY THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE COMING TO AND END OUTSIDE
OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS.

AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WILL BECOME A CONCERN...TRANSITIONING INTO MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS STEADILY RISE ON WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 10K FEET BY
AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THURSDAY AS 850MB TEMPS PLUMMET
TO AROUND -22C.

OFF LAKE ERIE...

INITIALLY WEDNESDAY THIS WILL BE MORE OF A LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND
UPSLOPE SCENARIO WITH DEEP SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE AND ASCENT STILL
IN PLACE. WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY...WITH A STRONG UPSLOPE SIGNATURE
NOTED IN MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND THE
BOSTON HILLS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE AND ASCENT PULL
AWAY...LEAVING MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO TO UNFOLD.
WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INITIALLY DURING THE EVENING WILL VEER
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL TRANSITION THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT INTO
MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRIMARILY OVER CHAUTAUQUA AND
CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY STILL CLIPPING FAR SOUTHERN ERIE
COUNTY. UPSLOPE WILL STILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE...WITH THE HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY FOCUSING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN JUST INLAND
FROM THE LAKE.

THE SAME PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
PRODUCING MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...WITH GREATER AMOUNTS FOCUSING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN JUST INLAND FROM THE LAKE. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
THE NEWEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON. THESE UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS ARE
OFTEN THE KEY TO ACHIEVING A MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE...WITH NOTABLE CONTRIBUTIONS OF
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE COMING FROM THE UPSTREAM LAKE.

GIVEN THE ABOVE EVOLUTION...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO FALL
WEDNESDAY WITH THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE...AND THEN AGAIN
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING IF THE UPSTREAM
CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON DEVELOPS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE WILL GO
WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS...AND
SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL IN A
FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR JUST INLAND FROM THE LAKE ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WHERE TOTALS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON MAY REACH 12-16 INCHES. TOTALS ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS MAY
ALSO REACH 8-12 INCHES. AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORE...AND ALSO FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...

LAKE EFFECT WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO EVOLVE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL BE DISRUPTED WEDNESDAY BY THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE
LOW. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF THE LAKE ACROSS THE TUG HILL AS COLDER
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES WNW...ALLOWING MORE PURE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE.

MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SPREAD
OUT WITH MULTIPLE BANDS ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE FROM NIAGARA
COUNTY EAST TO OSWEGO COUNTY. THE 290 FLOW WOULD SUGGEST A RELATIVE
MAXIMUM IN SNOWFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS WAYNE AND NORTHERN
CAYUGA COUNTIES EXTENDING INTO THE SYRACUSE AREA. FARTHER WEST SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE ROCHESTER AREA. THE CURRENT MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPSTREAM CONNECTION WITH GEORGIAN BAY
WILL END UP ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SINCE THE UPSTREAM CONNECTION IS NOT FORECAST TO LINK UP
WITH THE BETTER LAKE ONTARIO BANDING ACROSS WAYNE/NORTHERN CAYUGA
COUNTIES...IT APPEARS WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA IS LESS LIKELY OFF LAKE
ONTARIO.

EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OF 2-4 INCHES IN GENERAL ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE SOMEWHAT BETTER BANDING ACROSS WAYNE AND NORTHERN
CAYUGA COUNTIES MAY PRODUCE 4-7 INCHES. THE WILDCARD IS THE GEORGIAN
BAY BAND...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THE
WEST OF ROCHESTER.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD SLIDE WITH EARLY DAY HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID TO
UPPER 20S ON THE HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. BY
THURSDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TEENS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND LOWER TEENS ON THE HILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL WEAKEN INITIALLY THURSDAY EVENING AS A NARROW
SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES AND BRINGS INCREASED
SHEAR AND DRY AIR. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW WILL BACK MORE WESTERLY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AGAIN EAST OF THE LAKES.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...THE CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A SNOW SQUALL. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
INTENSIFY EAST OF THE LAKES JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT POSSIBLY
PRODUCING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS...THEN MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BREAK
APART INTO MULTIPLE BANDS SOUTH OF THE LAKES AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BECOMES NORTHERLY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE
LAKES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS TRUE ARCTIC AIR POURS ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE EXTREME WITH SUCH A COLD
AIRMASS...BUT ALL AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY. THE DRY
AIR...SHORT NORTHERLY FETCH...AND POOR CLOUD MICROPHYSICS IN THE
BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS RELATIVELY MINOR
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE BIG STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE EXTREME COLD. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER BY FAR INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF TAKE 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -32C ON SATURDAY. TO PUT THIS
IN PROSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A
KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST
EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C. THIS FRIGID AIRMASS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ON SATURDAY...AND IF THE TIMING
WORKS OUT WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD CROSSING DURING THE DAY HIGHS
MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO
EVERYWHERE...AND 20 BELOW OR BETTER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO
LAKE INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF BITTER COLD AND WIND WILL PRODUCE
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

THE CORE OF THE COLD BEGINS TO MOVE OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
RAPID WARM-UP TO NEAR AVERAGE BY MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH BY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF ANOTHER GENERAL LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR KIAG/KBUF/KROC. OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY BRIEF PASSING SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. FOR KJHW/KART...EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH IFR VSBYS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE LATE TODAY AND
INTO THE COURSE OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE
CASE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE SNOW WILL REDUCE
CONDITIONS TO IFR DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...MVFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD...STATIONARY STORM SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES
THIS MORNING...THEN AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE ERIE. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL LIKELY REACH SCA LEVELS ON LK ERIE BY LATE AFTERNOON...
AND WILL CERTAINLY BE IN PLACE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT ON LAKE ONTARIO.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL PROMOTE FRESH TO
STRONG WESTERLIES ON BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WHICH WILL BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SCA WILL BE NEEDED TO BE
ISSUED FOR LK ONTARIO IN A LATER FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST
         THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/RSH
NEAR TERM...AR/RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...AR/RSH
MARINE...AR/RSH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 091554
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1054 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A STALLED STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
THE REGION SHROUDED UNDER CLOUDS TODAY...ONLY LIGHT NUISANCE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE AWAY
TONIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL DEEPEN IN ITS WAKE WITH ACCUMULATING LAKE
SNOWS DEVELOPING EAST OF BOTH LAKES. THESE LAKE SNOWS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH TIME OUR FIRST TRUE ARCTIC AIRMASS OF
THE SEASON WILL INVADE THE AREA. FRIGID TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO WITH DANGEROUSLY
LOW WIND CHILL VALUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN NY LATE THIS MORNING. VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AND MAINLY WILL BE CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES WITH ROADS
PRIMARILY STAYING JUST WET. FURTHER TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST SOME
WEAK LIFT IN THE VCNTY OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS HELPING TO
GENERATE A BETTER ORGANIZED AREA OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS
THE TUG HILL RANGING FROM A TRACE UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE TUG HILL.

AN IMPRESSIVE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH
COVERING 2/3 OF THE EASTERN U.S TODAY. IN ADDITION TO THIS
IMPRESSIVE PATTERN...A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW HAS SET UP SHOP
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THIS FEATURE IN
PLACE LITTLE TO NO REAL DYNAMICS REMAIN. THIS HAS AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN JUST A WEALTH OF CLOUDS COVER AND SOME SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION. WHILE THERE WILL REMAIN A DEEP ENOUGH DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH AREA WITHIN THE CLOUD COVER...THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
STRUGGLE TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY SNOW WITHIN THE
LIGHTER PERCIPITION. THEREFORE...ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY
ONLY ACCUMULATED ON GRASSY SURFACES THE REST OF TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE BROAD STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY `OPEN UP` AND DRIFT
EAST TO THE ADIRONDACKS. WHILE GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL REMAIN
WEAK UNDER THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...DEEPENING COLD AIR ITS WAKE WILL
ESTABLISH ENOUGH LAKE DRIVEN INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. THIS MESOSCALE LAKE RESPONSE MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE NIGHT
TO GET GOING THOUGH...AS LAKE DELTA T`S SHOULD NOT REACH CRITICAL
VALUES UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR LAKE SNOWS BY
DAYBREAK WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE A COUPLE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. OUTSIDE OF
THIS LAKE EFFECT...THERE WILL ONLY BE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW WHICH HAS BEEN MEANDERING TO OUR WEST
WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE RIPPLING DOWN THE INVERTED TROUGH INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW
MOVES EAST OF OUR LATITUDE...WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE
AND ASCENT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS. BY
THURSDAY THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE COMING TO AND END OUTSIDE
OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS.

AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WILL BECOME A CONCERN...TRANSITIONING INTO MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS STEADILY RISE ON WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 10K FEET BY
AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THURSDAY AS 850MB TEMPS PLUMMET
TO AROUND -22C.

OFF LAKE ERIE...

INITIALLY WEDNESDAY THIS WILL BE MORE OF A LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND
UPSLOPE SCENARIO WITH DEEP SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE AND ASCENT STILL
IN PLACE. WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY...WITH A STRONG UPSLOPE SIGNATURE
NOTED IN MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND THE
BOSTON HILLS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE AND ASCENT PULL
AWAY...LEAVING MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO TO UNFOLD.
WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INITIALLY DURING THE EVENING WILL VEER
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL TRANSITION THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT INTO
MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRIMARILY OVER CHAUTAUQUA AND
CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY STILL CLIPPING FAR SOUTHERN ERIE
COUNTY. UPSLOPE WILL STILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE...WITH THE HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY FOCUSING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN JUST INLAND
FROM THE LAKE.

THE SAME PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
PRODUCING MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...WITH GREATER AMOUNTS FOCUSING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN JUST INLAND FROM THE LAKE. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
THE NEWEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON. THESE UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS ARE
OFTEN THE KEY TO ACHIEVING A MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE...WITH NOTABLE CONTRIBUTIONS OF
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE COMING FROM THE UPSTREAM LAKE.

GIVEN THE ABOVE EVOLUTION...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO FALL
WEDNESDAY WITH THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE...AND THEN AGAIN
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING IF THE UPSTREAM
CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON DEVELOPS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE WILL GO
WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS...AND
SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL IN A
FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR JUST INLAND FROM THE LAKE ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WHERE TOTALS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON MAY REACH 12-16 INCHES. TOTALS ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS MAY
ALSO REACH 8-12 INCHES. AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORE...AND ALSO FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...

LAKE EFFECT WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO EVOLVE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL BE DISRUPTED WEDNESDAY BY THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE
LOW. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF THE LAKE ACROSS THE TUG HILL AS COLDER
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES WNW...ALLOWING MORE PURE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE.

MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SPREAD
OUT WITH MULTIPLE BANDS ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE FROM NIAGARA
COUNTY EAST TO OSWEGO COUNTY. THE 290 FLOW WOULD SUGGEST A RELATIVE
MAXIMUM IN SNOWFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS WAYNE AND NORTHERN
CAYUGA COUNTIES EXTENDING INTO THE SYRACUSE AREA. FARTHER WEST SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE ROCHESTER AREA. THE CURRENT MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPSTREAM CONNECTION WITH GEORGIAN BAY
WILL END UP ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SINCE THE UPSTREAM CONNECTION IS NOT FORECAST TO LINK UP
WITH THE BETTER LAKE ONTARIO BANDING ACROSS WAYNE/NORTHERN CAYUGA
COUNTIES...IT APPEARS WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA IS LESS LIKELY OFF LAKE
ONTARIO.

EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OF 2-4 INCHES IN GENERAL ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE SOMEWHAT BETTER BANDING ACROSS WAYNE AND NORTHERN
CAYUGA COUNTIES MAY PRODUCE 4-7 INCHES. THE WILDCARD IS THE GEORGIAN
BAY BAND...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THE
WEST OF ROCHESTER.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD SLIDE WITH EARLY DAY HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID TO
UPPER 20S ON THE HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. BY
THURSDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TEENS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND LOWER TEENS ON THE HILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL WEAKEN INITIALLY THURSDAY EVENING AS A NARROW
SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES AND BRINGS INCREASED
SHEAR AND DRY AIR. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW WILL BACK MORE WESTERLY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AGAIN EAST OF THE LAKES.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...THE CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A SNOW SQUALL. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
INTENSIFY EAST OF THE LAKES JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT POSSIBLY
PRODUCING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS...THEN MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BREAK
APART INTO MULTIPLE BANDS SOUTH OF THE LAKES AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BECOMES NORTHERLY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE
LAKES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS TRUE ARCTIC AIR POURS ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE EXTREME WITH SUCH A COLD
AIRMASS...BUT ALL AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY. THE DRY
AIR...SHORT NORTHERLY FETCH...AND POOR CLOUD MICROPHYSICS IN THE
BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS RELATIVELY MINOR
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE BIG STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE EXTREME COLD. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER BY FAR INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF TAKE 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -32C ON SATURDAY. TO PUT THIS
IN PROSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A
KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST
EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C. THIS FRIGID AIRMASS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ON SATURDAY...AND IF THE TIMING
WORKS OUT WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD CROSSING DURING THE DAY HIGHS
MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO
EVERYWHERE...AND 20 BELOW OR BETTER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO
LAKE INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF BITTER COLD AND WIND WILL PRODUCE
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

THE CORE OF THE COLD BEGINS TO MOVE OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
RAPID WARM-UP TO NEAR AVERAGE BY MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH BY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF ANOTHER GENERAL LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR KIAG/KBUF/KROC. OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY BRIEF PASSING SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. FOR KJHW/KART...EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH IFR VSBYS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE LATE TODAY AND
INTO THE COURSE OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE
CASE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE SNOW WILL REDUCE
CONDITIONS TO IFR DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...MVFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD...STATIONARY STORM SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES
THIS MORNING...THEN AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE ERIE. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL LIKELY REACH SCA LEVELS ON LK ERIE BY LATE AFTERNOON...
AND WILL CERTAINLY BE IN PLACE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT ON LAKE ONTARIO.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL PROMOTE FRESH TO
STRONG WESTERLIES ON BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WHICH WILL BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SCA WILL BE NEEDED TO BE
ISSUED FOR LK ONTARIO IN A LATER FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST
         THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/RSH
NEAR TERM...AR/RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...AR/RSH
MARINE...AR/RSH




000
FXUS61 KALY 091445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
945 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EST...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION AS INTENSIFYING STORM OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
A WEAK/BROAD LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE.

PREV DISC...
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA.

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP /IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS/ WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE. THE BEST SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...AND PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT
ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE JUST A
COATING FOR MOST SPOTS AT MOST. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER WILL PROBABLY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. THERE WILL BE LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SPEEDS AND DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD  PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WEDNESDAY WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
DAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN TO KPOU THIS EVENING AS A SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES AND A LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 091445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
945 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EST...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION AS INTENSIFYING STORM OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
A WEAK/BROAD LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE.

PREV DISC...
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA.

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP /IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS/ WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE. THE BEST SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...AND PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT
ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE JUST A
COATING FOR MOST SPOTS AT MOST. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER WILL PROBABLY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. THERE WILL BE LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SPEEDS AND DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD  PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WEDNESDAY WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
DAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN TO KPOU THIS EVENING AS A SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES AND A LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 091445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
945 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EST...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION AS INTENSIFYING STORM OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
A WEAK/BROAD LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE.

PREV DISC...
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA.

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP /IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS/ WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE. THE BEST SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...AND PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT
ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE JUST A
COATING FOR MOST SPOTS AT MOST. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER WILL PROBABLY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. THERE WILL BE LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SPEEDS AND DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD  PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WEDNESDAY WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
DAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN TO KPOU THIS EVENING AS A SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES AND A LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 091435
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
935 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES EAST OUT TO
SEA. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT
AND PASS EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANY SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL AS
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH. A LINGERING LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTH
LATE TODAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LAT THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE 30-35 PER MOS GUIDANCE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...THE
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP...WITH A STRONG MID
LEVEL VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND SWING ACROSS
WED MORNING. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE INVERTED TROUGH IN THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH CLOSER
TO THE AREA...WITH A WEAK LOW CENTER ALSO DEVELOPING OFFSHORE IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THESE WILL BOTH HELP TO
FOCUS BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MAINLY OVER NYC METRO...LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SIDED MOSTLY
WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH THE NAM MOSTLY HAVING HELD
COURSE OVER THE PAST 24 HR AND THE GFS TRENDING NORTH TOWARD A
SIMILAR FCST SOLUTION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW BEST LIFT AT TEMPS
IDEAL FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH...AND ALSO SHOW VERY WEAK STATIC
STABILITY...WITH A DEEP SATURATED LAYER AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE ENHANCED AS A RESULT LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW. AS A RESULT...ISSUED A WINTER WX
ADVY FOR NYC METRO...LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT FOR TONIGHT INTO
WED MORNING.

THESE INVERTED TROUGHS OFTEN OUT-PERFORM MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOMETIMES ALSO END UP NORTH OF MODEL FCST...SO THE SITUATION
TONIGHT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HAD EVEN BRIEFLY
CONSIDERED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND
BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT WITH SREF STAYING TO THE SOUTH AND CAM
GUIDANCE NOT PRODUCING APPRECIABLE QPF CONSIDERING THE CONVECTIVE
ASPECT...DECIDED ON THE ADVY AS THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LONGWAVE EASTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN INTO SATURDAY WITH A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST AND MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS...AND COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...PROBABLY AN INCH OR
SO...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. THE FIRST PUSH OF COLDER AIR
INTO THE AREA MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SHORTWAVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING
AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOW
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO TRACK WEST
OF THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 15 TO AS MUCH AS 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE
AIR MASS MONDAY. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AND ENTER
THE REGION TONIGHT.

MOSTLY MVFR TODAY...BUT OCCASIONAL VFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. SOME
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS WELL. FLIGHT CATS LOWER THIS EVENING
WITH SNOW.

CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLE LIFR-VLIFR VIS AT TIMES.

NE WINDS 10-15KT TODAY. WINDS COULD VEER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TO ESE FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS...BUT SPEEDS WOULD ALSO
DIMINISH.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY FLURRIES THIS MORNING SHOULD END BY 16Z.
VSBYS DUE TO FLURRIES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6SM.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC FLURRIES BEFORE 16Z. VSBYS DUE TO
ANY FLURRIES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6SM.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MRNG.
.THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OT 25 KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. SEAS 8-10 FT TODAY SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE BEFORE
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE BEGINS
LATE DAY WED INTO WED NIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ON ALL
WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON THE OUTER OCEAN
WATERS.

SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THU INTO FRI AS
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST. GUSTS THURSDAY ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS
THE FIRST PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL
IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW AND AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING SHOULD BE LESS THAN
1/2 INCH...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS.

LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...THEN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING...SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL PEAKING. IN ADDITION...WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE TO THE NE AS
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
OF LONG ISLAND AND NYC. THE HIGH END OF THE FORECAST RANGE COULD
COME CLOSE TO THE WATER LEVELS REACHED DURING YESTERDAYS MORNING
FOR THE BAYS OF NYC AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

THEREAFTER...WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS WITH TUESDAY EVENINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO LOWER...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE INTO THE WED MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE.

HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE TODAY A MODERATE THREAT FOR
DUNE TOE EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED
POTENTIAL FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE ISLAND. THIS IS BASED ON MODELED
IMPACTS OF GALE CENTER FROM THE USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ009-010.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ071-073-078-079-081-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ074.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ074.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071-073-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ075-
     080-178-179.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-081-
     178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ075-080-178-179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ006-
     106-108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 091429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
929 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND BELOW
ZERO LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 929 AM EST TUESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SEVERAL WEAK
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROVIDING ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY HAS WANED THIS MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF EXITING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOW OFF IN THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE BEING REPLACED BY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE THOUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL PA AND THE MOHAWK
RIVER VALLEY WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AGAIN TOWARDS
THE NOON HOUR WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE ACTIVITY WANES AGAIN GOING INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL PUSH TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

FOR TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING AND AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AROUND. CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW REMAIN, BUT OVERALL WE SHOULD
SEE LESS AREAL COVERAGE THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING OFF
INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST TUESDAY...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE
DAY WED AND AGAIN ON THU WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. PWATS ARE PRETTY LOW AND NOT A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BE IN PLACE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...THEN
TEMPERATURES RECOVER MONDAY AS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR AREA. THIS IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST
TIME PERIOD...AND A DECENT GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROF AS
IT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE
OUR NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH GFS AND
ECMWF NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT YET...BOTH MODELS DUE
SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ALSO SOME PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED-00Z FRI...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 091429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
929 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND BELOW
ZERO LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 929 AM EST TUESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SEVERAL WEAK
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROVIDING ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY HAS WANED THIS MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF EXITING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOW OFF IN THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE BEING REPLACED BY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE THOUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL PA AND THE MOHAWK
RIVER VALLEY WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AGAIN TOWARDS
THE NOON HOUR WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE ACTIVITY WANES AGAIN GOING INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL PUSH TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

FOR TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING AND AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AROUND. CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW REMAIN, BUT OVERALL WE SHOULD
SEE LESS AREAL COVERAGE THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING OFF
INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST TUESDAY...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE
DAY WED AND AGAIN ON THU WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. PWATS ARE PRETTY LOW AND NOT A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BE IN PLACE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...THEN
TEMPERATURES RECOVER MONDAY AS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR AREA. THIS IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST
TIME PERIOD...AND A DECENT GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROF AS
IT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE
OUR NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH GFS AND
ECMWF NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT YET...BOTH MODELS DUE
SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ALSO SOME PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED-00Z FRI...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 091429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
929 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND BELOW
ZERO LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 929 AM EST TUESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SEVERAL WEAK
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROVIDING ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY HAS WANED THIS MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF EXITING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOW OFF IN THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE BEING REPLACED BY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE THOUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL PA AND THE MOHAWK
RIVER VALLEY WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AGAIN TOWARDS
THE NOON HOUR WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE ACTIVITY WANES AGAIN GOING INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL PUSH TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

FOR TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING AND AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AROUND. CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW REMAIN, BUT OVERALL WE SHOULD
SEE LESS AREAL COVERAGE THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING OFF
INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST TUESDAY...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE
DAY WED AND AGAIN ON THU WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. PWATS ARE PRETTY LOW AND NOT A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BE IN PLACE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...THEN
TEMPERATURES RECOVER MONDAY AS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR AREA. THIS IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST
TIME PERIOD...AND A DECENT GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROF AS
IT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE
OUR NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH GFS AND
ECMWF NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT YET...BOTH MODELS DUE
SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ALSO SOME PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED-00Z FRI...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/RJS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 091418
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
918 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES EAST OUT TO
SEA. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT
AND PASS EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANY SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL AS
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH. A LINGERING LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTH
LATE TODAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LAT THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE 30-35 PER MOS GUIDANCE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...THE
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP...WITH A STRONG MID
LEVEL VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND SWING ACROSS
WED MORNING. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE INVERTED TROUGH IN THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH CLOSER
TO THE AREA...WITH A WEAK LOW CENTER ALSO DEVELOPING OFFSHORE IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THESE WILL BOTH HELP TO
FOCUS BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MAINLY OVER NYC METRO...LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SIDED MOSTLY
WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH THE NAM MOSTLY HAVING HELD
COURSE OVER THE PAST 24 HR AND THE GFS TRENDING NORTH TOWARD A
SIMILAR FCST SOLUTION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW BEST LIFT AT TEMPS
IDEAL FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH...AND ALSO SHOW VERY WEAK STATIC
STABILITY...WITH A DEEP SATURATED LAYER AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE ENHANCED AS A RESULT LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW. AS A RESULT...ISSUED A WINTER WX
ADVY FOR NYC METRO...LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT FOR TONIGHT INTO
WED MORNING.

THESE INVERTED TROUGHS OFTEN OUT-PERFORM MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOMETIMES ALSO END UP NORTH OF MODEL FCST...SO THE SITUATION
TONIGHT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HAD EVEN BRIEFLY
CONSIDERED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND
BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT WITH SREF STAYING TO THE SOUTH AND CAM
GUIDANCE NOT PRODUCING APPRECIABLE QPF CONSIDERING THE CONVECTIVE
ASPECT...DECIDED ON THE ADVY AS THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LONGWAVE EASTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN INTO SATURDAY WITH A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST AND MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS...AND COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...PROBABLY AN INCH OR
SO...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. THE FIRST PUSH OF COLDER AIR
INTO THE AREA MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SHORTWAVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING
AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOW
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO TRACK WEST
OF THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 15 TO AS MUCH AS 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE
AIR MASS MONDAY. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL TRACK OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND PASS QUICKLY
OUT TO SEA. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL PASS S OF THE REGION TNGT.

MVFR OR LOWER THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES. CHC FOR HEAVIER SNOW TNGT WITH ACCUMS IN THE
3-6 INCH RANGE AND POSSIBLE LIFR-VLIFR VIS AT TIMES.

NE FLOW GENERALLY AOB 10KT INTO EARLY WED MRNG...THEN WINDS SHIFT
TO THE W 10-15KT IN THE EXTENDED TAFS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 15Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 15Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 15Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 15Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 15Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MRNG.
.THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OT 25 KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. SEAS 8-10 FT TODAY SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE BEFORE
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE BEGINS
LATE DAY WED INTO WED NIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ON ALL
WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON THE OUTER OCEAN
WATERS.

SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THU INTO FRI AS
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST. GUSTS THURSDAY ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS
THE FIRST PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL
IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW AND AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING SHOULD BE LESS THAN
1/2 INCH...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS.

LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...THEN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING...SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL PEAKING. IN ADDITION...WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE TO THE NE AS
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
OF LONG ISLAND AND NYC. THE HIGH END OF THE FORECAST RANGE COULD
COME CLOSE TO THE WATER LEVELS REACHED DURING YESTERDAYS MORNING
FOR THE BAYS OF NYC AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

THEREAFTER...WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS WITH TUESDAY EVENINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO LOWER...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE INTO THE WED MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE.

HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE TODAY A MODERATE THREAT FOR
DUNE TOE EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED
POTENTIAL FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE ISLAND. THIS IS BASED ON MODELED
IMPACTS OF GALE CENTER FROM THE USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ009-010.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ071-073-078-079-081-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ074.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ074.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071-073-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ075-
     080-178-179.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-081-
     178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ075-080-178-179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ006-
     106-108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 091418
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
918 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES EAST OUT TO
SEA. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT
AND PASS EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANY SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL AS
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH. A LINGERING LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTH
LATE TODAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LAT THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE 30-35 PER MOS GUIDANCE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...THE
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP...WITH A STRONG MID
LEVEL VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND SWING ACROSS
WED MORNING. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE INVERTED TROUGH IN THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH CLOSER
TO THE AREA...WITH A WEAK LOW CENTER ALSO DEVELOPING OFFSHORE IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THESE WILL BOTH HELP TO
FOCUS BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MAINLY OVER NYC METRO...LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SIDED MOSTLY
WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH THE NAM MOSTLY HAVING HELD
COURSE OVER THE PAST 24 HR AND THE GFS TRENDING NORTH TOWARD A
SIMILAR FCST SOLUTION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW BEST LIFT AT TEMPS
IDEAL FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH...AND ALSO SHOW VERY WEAK STATIC
STABILITY...WITH A DEEP SATURATED LAYER AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE ENHANCED AS A RESULT LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW. AS A RESULT...ISSUED A WINTER WX
ADVY FOR NYC METRO...LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT FOR TONIGHT INTO
WED MORNING.

THESE INVERTED TROUGHS OFTEN OUT-PERFORM MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOMETIMES ALSO END UP NORTH OF MODEL FCST...SO THE SITUATION
TONIGHT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HAD EVEN BRIEFLY
CONSIDERED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND
BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT WITH SREF STAYING TO THE SOUTH AND CAM
GUIDANCE NOT PRODUCING APPRECIABLE QPF CONSIDERING THE CONVECTIVE
ASPECT...DECIDED ON THE ADVY AS THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LONGWAVE EASTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN INTO SATURDAY WITH A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST AND MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS...AND COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...PROBABLY AN INCH OR
SO...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. THE FIRST PUSH OF COLDER AIR
INTO THE AREA MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SHORTWAVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING
AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOW
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO TRACK WEST
OF THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 15 TO AS MUCH AS 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE
AIR MASS MONDAY. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL TRACK OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND PASS QUICKLY
OUT TO SEA. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL PASS S OF THE REGION TNGT.

MVFR OR LOWER THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES. CHC FOR HEAVIER SNOW TNGT WITH ACCUMS IN THE
3-6 INCH RANGE AND POSSIBLE LIFR-VLIFR VIS AT TIMES.

NE FLOW GENERALLY AOB 10KT INTO EARLY WED MRNG...THEN WINDS SHIFT
TO THE W 10-15KT IN THE EXTENDED TAFS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 15Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 15Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 15Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 15Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 15Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MRNG.
.THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OT 25 KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. SEAS 8-10 FT TODAY SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE BEFORE
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE BEGINS
LATE DAY WED INTO WED NIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ON ALL
WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON THE OUTER OCEAN
WATERS.

SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THU INTO FRI AS
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST. GUSTS THURSDAY ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS
THE FIRST PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL
IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW AND AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING SHOULD BE LESS THAN
1/2 INCH...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS.

LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...THEN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING...SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL PEAKING. IN ADDITION...WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE TO THE NE AS
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
OF LONG ISLAND AND NYC. THE HIGH END OF THE FORECAST RANGE COULD
COME CLOSE TO THE WATER LEVELS REACHED DURING YESTERDAYS MORNING
FOR THE BAYS OF NYC AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

THEREAFTER...WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS WITH TUESDAY EVENINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO LOWER...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE INTO THE WED MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE.

HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE TODAY A MODERATE THREAT FOR
DUNE TOE EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED
POTENTIAL FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE ISLAND. THIS IS BASED ON MODELED
IMPACTS OF GALE CENTER FROM THE USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ009-010.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ071-073-078-079-081-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ074.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ074.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071-073-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ075-
     080-178-179.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-081-
     178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ075-080-178-179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ006-
     106-108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 091418
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
918 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES EAST OUT TO
SEA. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT
AND PASS EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANY SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL AS
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH. A LINGERING LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTH
LATE TODAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LAT THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE 30-35 PER MOS GUIDANCE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...THE
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP...WITH A STRONG MID
LEVEL VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND SWING ACROSS
WED MORNING. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE INVERTED TROUGH IN THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH CLOSER
TO THE AREA...WITH A WEAK LOW CENTER ALSO DEVELOPING OFFSHORE IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THESE WILL BOTH HELP TO
FOCUS BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MAINLY OVER NYC METRO...LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SIDED MOSTLY
WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH THE NAM MOSTLY HAVING HELD
COURSE OVER THE PAST 24 HR AND THE GFS TRENDING NORTH TOWARD A
SIMILAR FCST SOLUTION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW BEST LIFT AT TEMPS
IDEAL FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH...AND ALSO SHOW VERY WEAK STATIC
STABILITY...WITH A DEEP SATURATED LAYER AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE ENHANCED AS A RESULT LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW. AS A RESULT...ISSUED A WINTER WX
ADVY FOR NYC METRO...LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT FOR TONIGHT INTO
WED MORNING.

THESE INVERTED TROUGHS OFTEN OUT-PERFORM MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOMETIMES ALSO END UP NORTH OF MODEL FCST...SO THE SITUATION
TONIGHT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HAD EVEN BRIEFLY
CONSIDERED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND
BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT WITH SREF STAYING TO THE SOUTH AND CAM
GUIDANCE NOT PRODUCING APPRECIABLE QPF CONSIDERING THE CONVECTIVE
ASPECT...DECIDED ON THE ADVY AS THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LONGWAVE EASTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN INTO SATURDAY WITH A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST AND MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS...AND COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...PROBABLY AN INCH OR
SO...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. THE FIRST PUSH OF COLDER AIR
INTO THE AREA MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SHORTWAVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING
AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOW
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO TRACK WEST
OF THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 15 TO AS MUCH AS 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE
AIR MASS MONDAY. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL TRACK OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND PASS QUICKLY
OUT TO SEA. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL PASS S OF THE REGION TNGT.

MVFR OR LOWER THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES. CHC FOR HEAVIER SNOW TNGT WITH ACCUMS IN THE
3-6 INCH RANGE AND POSSIBLE LIFR-VLIFR VIS AT TIMES.

NE FLOW GENERALLY AOB 10KT INTO EARLY WED MRNG...THEN WINDS SHIFT
TO THE W 10-15KT IN THE EXTENDED TAFS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 15Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 15Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 15Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 15Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 15Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MRNG.
.THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OT 25 KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. SEAS 8-10 FT TODAY SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE BEFORE
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE BEGINS
LATE DAY WED INTO WED NIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ON ALL
WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON THE OUTER OCEAN
WATERS.

SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THU INTO FRI AS
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST. GUSTS THURSDAY ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS
THE FIRST PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL
IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW AND AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING SHOULD BE LESS THAN
1/2 INCH...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS.

LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...THEN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING...SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL PEAKING. IN ADDITION...WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE TO THE NE AS
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
OF LONG ISLAND AND NYC. THE HIGH END OF THE FORECAST RANGE COULD
COME CLOSE TO THE WATER LEVELS REACHED DURING YESTERDAYS MORNING
FOR THE BAYS OF NYC AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

THEREAFTER...WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS WITH TUESDAY EVENINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO LOWER...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE INTO THE WED MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE.

HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE TODAY A MODERATE THREAT FOR
DUNE TOE EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED
POTENTIAL FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE ISLAND. THIS IS BASED ON MODELED
IMPACTS OF GALE CENTER FROM THE USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ009-010.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ071-073-078-079-081-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ074.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ074.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071-073-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ075-
     080-178-179.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-081-
     178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ075-080-178-179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ006-
     106-108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBTV 091157
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
657 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 657 AM EST TUESDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING LIGHT SNOW HAS COME TO AN END OR DIMINISHED IN
SOME LOCATIONS. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR TODAY IN SOME
LOCATIONS. STILL EXPECTING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES AS UPPER
SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 400 AM EST TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW
AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF A DUSTING TO AN
INCH TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST TUESDAY...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE
DAY WED AND AGAIN ON THU WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. PWATS ARE PRETTY LOW AND NOT A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BE IN PLACE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...THEN
TEMPERATURES RECOVER MONDAY AS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR AREA. THIS IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST
TIME PERIOD...AND A DECENT GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROF AS
IT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE
OUR NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH GFS AND
ECMWF NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT YET...BOTH MODELS DUE
SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ALSO SOME PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED-00Z FRI...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 091157
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
657 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 657 AM EST TUESDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING LIGHT SNOW HAS COME TO AN END OR DIMINISHED IN
SOME LOCATIONS. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR TODAY IN SOME
LOCATIONS. STILL EXPECTING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES AS UPPER
SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 400 AM EST TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW
AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF A DUSTING TO AN
INCH TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST TUESDAY...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE
DAY WED AND AGAIN ON THU WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. PWATS ARE PRETTY LOW AND NOT A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BE IN PLACE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...THEN
TEMPERATURES RECOVER MONDAY AS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR AREA. THIS IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST
TIME PERIOD...AND A DECENT GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROF AS
IT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE
OUR NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH GFS AND
ECMWF NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT YET...BOTH MODELS DUE
SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ALSO SOME PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED-00Z FRI...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 091157
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
657 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 657 AM EST TUESDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING LIGHT SNOW HAS COME TO AN END OR DIMINISHED IN
SOME LOCATIONS. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR TODAY IN SOME
LOCATIONS. STILL EXPECTING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES AS UPPER
SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 400 AM EST TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW
AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF A DUSTING TO AN
INCH TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST TUESDAY...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE
DAY WED AND AGAIN ON THU WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. PWATS ARE PRETTY LOW AND NOT A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BE IN PLACE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...THEN
TEMPERATURES RECOVER MONDAY AS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR AREA. THIS IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST
TIME PERIOD...AND A DECENT GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROF AS
IT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE
OUR NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH GFS AND
ECMWF NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT YET...BOTH MODELS DUE
SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ALSO SOME PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED-00Z FRI...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 091152
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
652 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A STALLED STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
THE REGION SHROUDED UNDER CLOUDS TODAY...ONLY LIGHT NUISANCE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE AWAY
TONIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL DEEPEN IN ITS WAKE WITH ACCUMULATING LAKE
SNOWS DEVELOPING EAST OF BOTH LAKES. THESE LAKE SNOWS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH TIME OUR FIRST TRUE ARCTIC AIRMASS OF
THE SEASON WILL INVADE THE AREA. FRIGID TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO WITH DANGEROUSLY
LOW WIND CHILL VALUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DESPITE AN IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY...WE CAN
GENERALLY EXPECT A `WHOLE LOT OF NOTHING` TO HAPPEN ACROSS OUR
REGION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN SOME LAKE SNOWS WILL BEGIN TO BE
GENERATED.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED +PNA JET STREAM PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CONTINENT TODAY. THIS WILL FEATURE A STACKED CLOSED LOW OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO REAL DYNAMICS
REMAINING WITHIN THIS MATURE SYSTEM...WE WILL ONLY EXPERIENCE A
WEALTH OF CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY PRECIPITATION. WHILE THERE WILL BE A
DEEP ENOUGH DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH AREA WITHIN OUR CLOUD COVER...THE
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDDAY...SO
THE PCPN WILL BECOME MIXED WITH OR WILL CHANGE TO A LITTLE LIGHT
RAIN FOR SOME AREAS. THE ONLY REAL ORGANIZED SNOW WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE SOME WEAK LIFT IS
FOUND IN THE VCNTY OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SNOW ACCUMS TODAY
WILL RANGE FORM A TRACE/COATING IN MOST AREAS TO AS MUCH AS AN INCH
NORTH OF THE TUG.

TONIGHT...THE BROAD STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY `OPEN UP` AND DRIFT
EAST TO THE ADIRONDACKS. WHILE GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL REMAIN
WEAK UNDER THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...DEEPENING COLD AIR ITS WAKE WILL
ESTABLISH ENOUGH LAKE DRIVEN INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. THIS MESOSCALE LAKE RESPONSE MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE NIGHT
TO GET GOING THOUGH...AS LAKE DELTA T`S SHOULD NOT REACH CRITICAL
VALUES UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR LAKE SNOWS BY
DAYBREAK WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE A COUPLE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. OUTSIDE OF
THIS LAKE EFFECT...THERE WILL ONLY BE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW WHICH HAS BEEN MEANDERING TO OUR WEST
WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE RIPPLING DOWN THE INVERTED TROUGH INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW
MOVES EAST OF OUR LATITUDE...WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE
AND ASCENT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS. BY
THURSDAY THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE COMING TO AND END OUTSIDE
OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS.

AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WILL BECOME A CONCERN...TRANSITIONING INTO MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS STEADILY RISE ON WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 10K FEET BY
AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THURSDAY AS 850MB TEMPS PLUMMET
TO AROUND -22C.

OFF LAKE ERIE...

INITIALLY WEDNESDAY THIS WILL BE MORE OF A LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND
UPSLOPE SCENARIO WITH DEEP SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE AND ASCENT STILL
IN PLACE. WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY...WITH A STRONG UPSLOPE SIGNATURE
NOTED IN MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND THE
BOSTON HILLS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE AND ASCENT PULL
AWAY...LEAVING MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO TO UNFOLD.
WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INITIALLY DURING THE EVENING WILL VEER
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL TRANSITION THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT INTO
MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRIMARILY OVER CHAUTAUQUA AND
CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY STILL CLIPPING FAR SOUTHERN ERIE
COUNTY. UPSLOPE WILL STILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE...WITH THE HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY FOCUSING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN JUST INLAND
FROM THE LAKE.

THE SAME PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
PRODUCING MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...WITH GREATER AMOUNTS FOCUSING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN JUST INLAND FROM THE LAKE. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
THE NEWEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON. THESE UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS ARE
OFTEN THE KEY TO ACHIEVING A MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE...WITH NOTABLE CONTRIBUTIONS OF
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE COMING FROM THE UPSTREAM LAKE.

GIVEN THE ABOVE EVOLUTION...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO FALL
WEDNESDAY WITH THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE...AND THEN AGAIN
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING IF THE UPSTREAM
CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON DEVELOPS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE WILL GO
WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS...AND
SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL IN A
FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR JUST INLAND FROM THE LAKE ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WHERE TOTALS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON MAY REACH 12-16 INCHES. TOTALS ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS MAY
ALSO REACH 8-12 INCHES. AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORE...AND ALSO FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...

LAKE EFFECT WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO EVOLVE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL BE DISRUPTED WEDNESDAY BY THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE
LOW. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF THE LAKE ACROSS THE TUG HILL AS COLDER
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES WNW...ALLOWING MORE PURE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE.

MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SPREAD
OUT WITH MULTIPLE BANDS ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE FROM NIAGARA
COUNTY EAST TO OSWEGO COUNTY. THE 290 FLOW WOULD SUGGEST A RELATIVE
MAXIMUM IN SNOWFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS WAYNE AND NORTHERN
CAYUGA COUNTIES EXTENDING INTO THE SYRACUSE AREA. FARTHER WEST SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE ROCHESTER AREA. THE CURRENT MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPSTREAM CONNECTION WITH GEORGIAN BAY
WILL END UP ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SINCE THE UPSTREAM CONNECTION IS NOT FORECAST TO LINK UP
WITH THE BETTER LAKE ONTARIO BANDING ACROSS WAYNE/NORTHERN CAYUGA
COUNTIES...IT APPEARS WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA IS LESS LIKELY OFF LAKE
ONTARIO.

EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OF 2-4 INCHES IN GENERAL ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE SOMEWHAT BETTER BANDING ACROSS WAYNE AND NORTHERN
CAYUGA COUNTIES MAY PRODUCE 4-7 INCHES. THE WILDCARD IS THE GEORGIAN
BAY BAND...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THE
WEST OF ROCHESTER.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD SLIDE WITH EARLY DAY HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID TO
UPPER 20S ON THE HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. BY
THURSDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TEENS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND LOWER TEENS ON THE HILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL WEAKEN INITIALLY THURSDAY EVENING AS A NARROW
SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES AND BRINGS INCREASED
SHEAR AND DRY AIR. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW WILL BACK MORE WESTERLY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AGAIN EAST OF THE LAKES.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...THE CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A SNOW SQUALL. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
INTENSIFY EAST OF THE LAKES JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT POSSIBLY
PRODUCING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS...THEN MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BREAK
APART INTO MULTIPLE BANDS SOUTH OF THE LAKES AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BECOMES NORTHERLY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE
LAKES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS TRUE ARCTIC AIR POURS ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE EXTREME WITH SUCH A COLD
AIRMASS...BUT ALL AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY. THE DRY
AIR...SHORT NORTHERLY FETCH...AND POOR CLOUD MICROPHYSICS IN THE
BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS RELATIVELY MINOR
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE BIG STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE EXTREME COLD. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER BY FAR INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF TAKE 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -32C ON SATURDAY. TO PUT THIS
IN PROSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A
KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST
EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C. THIS FRIGID AIRMASS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ON SATURDAY...AND IF THE TIMING
WORKS OUT WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD CROSSING DURING THE DAY HIGHS
MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO
EVERYWHERE...AND 20 BELOW OR BETTER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO
LAKE INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF BITTER COLD AND WIND WILL PRODUCE
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

THE CORE OF THE COLD BEGINS TO MOVE OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
RAPID WARM-UP TO NEAR AVERAGE BY MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH BY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF ANOTHER GENERAL LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
SPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
POCKETS OF IFR CIGS. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN TIER
(CIGS) AND ALSO NORTH OF THE TUG HILL (VSBYS).

THE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL MARGINALLY IMPROVE DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON...THEN CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE DURING
THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE OVER THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE SNOW WILL REDUCE CONDITIONS TO IFR DURING
THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...MVFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD...STATIONARY STORM SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES
THIS MORNING...THEN AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE ERIE. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL LIKELY REACH SCA LEVELS ON LK ERIE BY LATE AFTERNOON...
AND WILL CERTAINLY BE IN PLACE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT ON LAKE ONTARIO.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL PROMOTE FRESH TO
STRONG WESTERLIES ON BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WHICH WILL BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SCA WILL BE NEEDED TO BE
ISSUED FOR LK ONTARIO IN A LATER FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST
         THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 091147
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
647 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE AREA
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH LATE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD DEVELOP
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY HAS ROTATED THROUGH A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE EARLY THIS MORNING GIVING THE AREA A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUM, GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. AT 4 AM THIS LIGHT SNOW
WAS CONTINUING TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND SHOULD BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK.

THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO
NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATER TODAY. DUE TO A LACK OF ANY FORCING
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH COULD BE MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORMALLY
WARMER AREAS WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH 40 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THIS EVENING AN AREA OF WEAK SFC LOW PRES WILL LIFT
ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND GIVE THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA AROUND
TWO INCHES OF SNOW. THIS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LUZERNE, SOUTHERN LACKAWANNA, SOUTHERN WAYNE AND SOUTHERN PIKE
COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE, A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH CENTRAL NY DURING THE EVENING HOURS BRINGING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND MORE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. AFTER
MIDNIGHT ONCE THIS FEATURE PASSES THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK SFC LOW PRES WITHIN THE VERTICALLY STACKED
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND USHER IN COLDER AIR AND
MORE SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL
SHOW POPS INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ACROSS NYS BUT JUST CHC IN NE PA. AGAIN ACCUMS WILL BE
LIGHT GENERALLY AROUND ONE INCH. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 30.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD WITH T85 DROPPING TO
AROUND -20C BY THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE AROUND 290-300 DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS WELL ALIGNED ALONG WITH GOOD SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND
DECENT SNOW GROWTH REGION, BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT AIRMASS BECOMES
FAIRLY DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WHICH WILL LIMIT ACCUMS. THROUGH A
36 HOUR PERIOD TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES LOOKS POSSIBLE
ACROSS WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY AND NORTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY IF CONDITIONS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE. REST OF AREA WILL
JUST SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMS. LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
IN THE TEENS DUE TO LIMITED RECOVERY FROM MINS. THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL BE ZERO TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 AM UPDATE... NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE 0Z CYCLE OF MODEL RUNS.
FORECAST HIGHS SATURDAY OF 5 (SYRACUSE) AND 6 (BINGHAMTON AIRPORT)
WOULD BE THE COLDEST DAYS SINCE FEBRUARY 20TH AND 6TH
RESPECTIVELY. MINOR TWEAKS OVER THE WEEKEND INCLUDED EXPANDED AREA
OF LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF
PA, AND INCREASING POPS OVER THE FINGER LAKES THROUGH BINGHAMTON
AREA. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

220 PM MONDAY UPDATE...
OVERALL, A MUCH MORE WINTER-LIKE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY, COMPARED
TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN FOR MOST OF THIS SEASON SO FAR.

IN THE BIG-PICTURE, A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS
TROUGH APPEARS AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO DRIVE BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR
INTO NY AND PA FOR A FEW DAYS.

DAILY WEATHER-WISE, LINGERING LAKE SNOWS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT, AS THE WIND FLOW SHIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST, OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.

ON FRIDAY, AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH, AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL SWING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT
LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF, THEN MORE LAKE SNOWS KICK IN BEHIND IT, AS A BITTER
COLD AIR MASS COMES IN ON N-NW WINDS. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND PA`S
NORTHERN TIER SHOULD GET IN ON THE LAKE-EFFECT ACTION NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOST AREAS, AS A 320-350 WIND
FLOW IS PROGGED.

THE BIG STORY FRI-SUN WILL BE THE BITTER COLD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO IN MANY SPOTS. WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONE AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED ALL OF OUR
TERMINALS. SOME MVFR VSBYS STILL POSSIBLE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AT
KSYR AND KRME IN LIGHT SNOW, BUT OVERALL MOSTLY DRY THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WHILE DRY, MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY FROM KITH
SOUTH.

LATER TODAY, AFTER 20Z, A NEW AREA OF SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD ALL
TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF KRME. AT LEAST MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS
EXPECTED. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT IFR CIGS MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE SNOWFALL, ESPECIALLY AS WE GET CLOSER TO 0Z. SNOW
ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST, BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. AFTER THAT TIME A
RETURN TO VFR IS EXZPECTED.

.OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH SAT...AT KSYR/KRME, PERSISTENT IFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS/HEAVIER LAKE-EFFECT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE, RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MORE PERIODIC, FROM PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN/MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...HEDEN




000
FXUS61 KOKX 091140
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
640 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES EAST OUT TO SEA.
ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND
PASS EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS TO THE NORTH...ANY LEFTOVER
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED IN COVERAGE
EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL
AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH. A LINGERING
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL START TO LIFT
NORTH LATE TODAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LAT THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE 30-35 PER MOS GUIDANCE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...THE
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP...WITH A STRONG MID
LEVEL VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND SWING ACROSS
WED MORNING. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE INVERTED TROUGH IN THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH CLOSER
TO THE AREA...WITH A WEAK LOW CENTER ALSO DEVELOPING OFFSHORE IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THESE WILL BOTH HELP TO
FOCUS BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MAINLY OVER NYC METRO...LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SIDED MOSTLY
WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH THE NAM MOSTLY HAVING HELD
COURSE OVER THE PAST 24 HR AND THE GFS TRENDING NORTH TOWARD A
SIMILAR FCST SOLUTION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW BEST LIFT AT TEMPS
IDEAL FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH...AND ALSO SHOW VERY WEAK STATIC
STABILITY...WITH A DEEP SATURATED LAYER AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE ENHANCED AS A RESULT LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW. AS A RESULT...ISSUED A WINTER WX
ADVY FOR NYC METRO...LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT FOR TONIGHT INTO
WED MORNING.

THESE INVERTED TROUGHS OFTEN OUT-PERFORM MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOMETIMES ALSO END UP NORTH OF MODEL FCST...SO THE SITUATION
TONIGHT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HAD EVEN BRIEFLY
CONSIDERED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND
BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT WITH SREF STAYING TO THE SOUTH AND CAM
GUIDANCE NOT PRODUCING APPRECIABLE QPF CONSIDERING THE CONVECTIVE
ASPECT...DECIDED ON THE ADVY AS THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LONGWAVE EASTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN INTO SATURDAY WITH A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST AND MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS...AND COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...PROBABLY AN INCH OR
SO...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. THE FIRST PUSH OF COLDER AIR
INTO THE AREA MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SHORTWAVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING
AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOW
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO TRACK WEST
OF THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 15 TO AS MUCH AS 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE
AIR MASS MONDAY. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL TRACK OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND PASS QUICKLY
OUT TO SEA. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL PASS S OF THE REGION TNGT.

MVFR OR LOWER THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES. CHC FOR HEAVIER SNOW TNGT WITH ACCUMS IN THE
3-6 INCH RANGE AND POSSIBLE LIFR-VLIFR VIS AT TIMES.

NE FLOW GENERALLY AOB 10KT INTO EARLY WED MRNG...THEN WINDS SHIFT
TO THE W 10-15KT IN THE EXTENDED TAFS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 15Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 15Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 15Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 15Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 15Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MRNG.
.THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OT 25 KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO
WED. SEAS 8-10 FT TODAY SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE BEFORE STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE BEGINS LATE
DAY WED INTO WED NIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ON ALL WATERS....
POSSIBLY REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON THE OUTER OCEAN WATERS.

SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THU INTO FRI AS
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST. GUSTS THURSDAY ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS
THE FIRST PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL
IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW AND AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING SHOULD BE LESS THAN
1/2 INCH...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS.

LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...THEN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING...SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL PEAKING. IN ADDITION...WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE TO THE NE AS
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
OF LONG ISLAND AND NYC. THE HIGH END OF THE FORECAST RANGE COULD
COME CLOSE TO THE WATER LEVELS REACHED DURING YESTERDAYS MORNING
FOR THE BAYS OF NYC AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

THEREAFTER...WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS WITH TUESDAY EVENINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO LOWER...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE INTO THE WED MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE.

HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE TODAY A MODERATE THREAT FOR
DUNE TOE EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED
POTENTIAL FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE ISLAND. THIS IS BASED ON MODELED
IMPACTS OF GALE CENTER FROM THE USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ009-010.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ079-081.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ074.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ074.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ071-073-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071-073-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ075-
     080-178-179.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-081-
     178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ075-080-178-179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ006-
     106-108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 091119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 619 AM EST...A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...WITH A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA.

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP /IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS/ WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE. THE BEST SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...AND PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT
ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE JUST A
COATING FOR MOST SPOTS AT MOST. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER WILL PROBABLY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. THERE WILL BE LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SPEEDS AND DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD  PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WEDNESDAY WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
DAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN TO KPOU THIS EVENING AS A SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES AND A LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 091119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 619 AM EST...A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...WITH A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA.

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP /IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS/ WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE. THE BEST SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...AND PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT
ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE JUST A
COATING FOR MOST SPOTS AT MOST. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER WILL PROBABLY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. THERE WILL BE LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SPEEDS AND DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD  PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WEDNESDAY WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
DAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN TO KPOU THIS EVENING AS A SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES AND A LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 091119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 619 AM EST...A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...WITH A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA.

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP /IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS/ WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE. THE BEST SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...AND PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT
ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE JUST A
COATING FOR MOST SPOTS AT MOST. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER WILL PROBABLY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. THERE WILL BE LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SPEEDS AND DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD  PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WEDNESDAY WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
DAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN TO KPOU THIS EVENING AS A SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES AND A LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 091119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 619 AM EST...A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...WITH A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA.

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP /IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS/ WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE. THE BEST SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...AND PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT
ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE JUST A
COATING FOR MOST SPOTS AT MOST. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER WILL PROBABLY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. THERE WILL BE LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SPEEDS AND DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD  PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WEDNESDAY WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
DAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN TO KPOU THIS EVENING AS A SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES AND A LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 091119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 619 AM EST...A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...WITH A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA.

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP /IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS/ WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE. THE BEST SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...AND PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT
ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE JUST A
COATING FOR MOST SPOTS AT MOST. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOW
SHOWER WILL PROBABLY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. THERE WILL BE LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SPEEDS AND DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD  PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/WEDNESDAY WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
DAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN TO KPOU THIS EVENING AS A SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES AND A LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 091035
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
535 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES EAST OUT TO SEA.
ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND
PASS EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS TO THE NORTH...ANY LEFTOVER
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED IN COVERAGE
EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL
AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH. A LINGERING
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL START TO LIFT
NORTH LATE TODAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LAT THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE 30-35 PER MOS GUIDANCE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...THE
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP...WITH A STRONG MID
LEVEL VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND SWING ACROSS
WED MORNING. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE INVERTED TROUGH IN THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH CLOSER
TO THE AREA...WITH A WEAK LOW CENTER ALSO DEVELOPING OFFSHORE IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THESE WILL BOTH HELP TO
FOCUS BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MAINLY OVER NYC METRO...LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SIDED MOSTLY
WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH THE NAM MOSTLY HAVING HELD
COURSE OVER THE PAST 24 HR AND THE GFS TRENDING NORTH TOWARD A
SIMILAR FCST SOLUTION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW BEST LIFT AT TEMPS
IDEAL FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH...AND ALSO SHOW VERY WEAK STATIC
STABILITY...WITH A DEEP SATURATED LAYER AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE ENHANCED AS A RESULT LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW. AS A RESULT...ISSUED A WINTER WX
ADVY FOR NYC METRO...LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT FOR TONIGHT INTO
WED MORNING.

THESE INVERTED TROUGHS OFTEN OUT-PERFORM MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SOMETIMES ALSO END UP NORTH OF MODEL FCST...SO THE SITUATION
TONIGHT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HAD EVEN BRIEFLY
CONSIDERED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND
BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT WITH SREF STAYING TO THE SOUTH AND CAM
GUIDANCE NOT PRODUCING APPRECIABLE QPF CONSIDERING THE CONVECTIVE
ASPECT...DECIDED ON THE ADVY AS THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LONGWAVE EASTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN INTO SATURDAY WITH A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST AND MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS...AND COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...PROBABLY AN INCH OR
SO...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. THE FIRST PUSH OF COLDER AIR
INTO THE AREA MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SHORTWAVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING
AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOW
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO TRACK WEST
OF THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 15 TO AS MUCH AS 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE
AIR MASS MONDAY. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL TRACK OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND PASS QUICKLY
OUT TO SEA. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL PASS S OF THE REGION TNGT.

MVFR OR LOWER THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES. CHC FOR HEAVIER SNOW TNGT WITH ACCUMS IN THE
3-6 INCH RANGE AND POSSIBLE LIFR-VLIFR VIS AT TIMES.

NE FLOW GENERALLY AOB 10KT INTO WED MRNG.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR VIS EXPECTED IN ANY SNOW THIS MRNG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR VIS EXPECTED IN ANY SNOW THIS MRNG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR VIS EXPECTED IN ANY SNOW THIS MRNG.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR VIS EXPECTED IN ANY SNOW THIS MRNG.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR VIS EXPECTED IN ANY SNOW THIS MRNG.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR VIS EXPECTED IN ANY SNOW THIS MRNG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TNGT...IFR OR LWR LIKELY WITH SNOW. ACCUMS OF 3-6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MRNG.
.THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OT 25 KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO
WED. SEAS 8-10 FT TODAY SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE BEFORE STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE BEGINS LATE
DAY WED INTO WED NIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ON ALL WATERS....
POSSIBLY REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON THE OUTER OCEAN WATERS.

SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THU INTO FRI AS
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST. GUSTS THURSDAY ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS
THE FIRST PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL
IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW AND AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING SHOULD BE LESS THAN
1/2 INCH...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS.

LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...THEN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING...SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL PEAKING. IN ADDITION...WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE TO THE NE AS
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
OF LONG ISLAND AND NYC. THE HIGH END OF THE FORECAST RANGE COULD
COME CLOSE TO THE WATER LEVELS REACHED DURING YESTERDAYS MORNING
FOR THE BAYS OF NYC AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

THEREAFTER...WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS WITH TUESDAY EVENINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO LOWER...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE INTO THE WED MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE.

HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE TODAY A MODERATE THREAT FOR
DUNE TOE EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED
POTENTIAL FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE ISLAND. THIS IS BASED ON MODELED
IMPACTS OF GALE CENTER FROM THE USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14

LOCATION...RECORD LOW/YEAR...FORECAST LOW
NEWARK..............0/1979.........5
BRIDGEPORT..........3/2015*........5
CENTRAL PARK........2/1916.........7
LAGUARDIA...........1/1979.........8
JFK.................4/1979.........6
ISLIP...............7/2015*........4
* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ009-010.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ079-081.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ074.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ074.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071-073-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071-073-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ075-
     080-178-179.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-081-
     178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ075-080-178-179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ006-
     106-108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBGM 090934
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
434 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE AREA
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH LATE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD DEVELOP
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY HAS ROTATED THROUGH A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE EARLY THIS MORNING GIVING THE AREA A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUM, GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. AT 4 AM THIS LIGHT SNOW
WAS CONTINUING TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND SHOULD BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK.

THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO
NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATER TODAY. DUE TO A LACK OF ANY FORCING
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH COULD BE MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORMALLY
WARMER AREAS WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH 40 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THIS EVENING AN AREA OF WEAK SFC LOW PRES WILL LIFT
ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND GIVE THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA AROUND
TWO INCHES OF SNOW. THIS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LUZERNE, SOUTHERN LACKAWANNA, SOUTHERN WAYNE AND SOUTHERN PIKE
COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE, A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH CENTRAL NY DURING THE EVENING HOURS BRINGING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND MORE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. AFTER
MIDNIGHT ONCE THIS FEATURE PASSES THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK SFC LOW PRES WITHIN THE VERTICALLY STACKED
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND USHER IN COLDER AIR AND
MORE SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL
SHOW POPS INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ACROSS NYS BUT JUST CHC IN NE PA. AGAIN ACCUMS WILL BE
LIGHT GENERALLY AROUND ONE INCH. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 30.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD WITH T85 DROPPING TO
AROUND -20C BY THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE AROUND 290-300 DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS WELL ALIGNED ALONG WITH GOOD SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND
DECENT SNOW GROWTH REGION, BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT AIRMASS BECOMES
FAIRLY DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WHICH WILL LIMIT ACCUMS. THROUGH A
36 HOUR PERIOD TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES LOOKS POSSIBLE
ACROSS WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY AND NORTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY IF CONDITIONS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE. REST OF AREA WILL
JUST SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMS. LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
IN THE TEENS DUE TO LIMITED RECOVERY FROM MINS. THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL BE ZERO TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 AM UPDATE... NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE 0Z CYCLE OF MODEL RUNS.
FORECAST HIGHS SATURDAY OF 5 (SYRACUSE) AND 6 (BINGHAMTON AIRPORT)
WOULD BE THE COLDEST DAYS SINCE FEBRUARY 20TH AND 6TH
RESPECTIVELY. MINOR TWEAKS OVER THE WEEKEND INCLUDED EXPANDED AREA
OF LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF
PA, AND INCREASING POPS OVER THE FINGER LAKES THROUGH BINGHAMTON
AREA. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

220 PM MONDAY UPDATE...
OVERALL, A MUCH MORE WINTER-LIKE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY, COMPARED
TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN FOR MOST OF THIS SEASON SO FAR.

IN THE BIG-PICTURE, A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS
TROUGH APPEARS AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO DRIVE BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR
INTO NY AND PA FOR A FEW DAYS.

DAILY WEATHER-WISE, LINGERING LAKE SNOWS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT, AS THE WIND FLOW SHIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST, OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.

ON FRIDAY, AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH, AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL SWING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT
LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF, THEN MORE LAKE SNOWS KICK IN BEHIND IT, AS A BITTER
COLD AIR MASS COMES IN ON N-NW WINDS. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND PA`S
NORTHERN TIER SHOULD GET IN ON THE LAKE-EFFECT ACTION NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOST AREAS, AS A 320-350 WIND
FLOW IS PROGGED.

THE BIG STORY FRI-SUN WILL BE THE BITTER COLD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO IN MANY SPOTS. WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR SNOW ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS,
THEN MOSTLY VFR TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW LIKELY ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT, WITH MORE IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.

AN AREA OF SNOW IS ROTATING THROUGH THE TERMINALS NOW. LONGEST
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE AT KRME, WITH SNOW ENDING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AT KAVP. MOSTLY MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS, BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR POSSIBLE AT KAVP, KBGM, AND KRME THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE REST OF TODAY IS MAINLY VFR. AFTER 20Z IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE FAR
SOUTH IN SNOW AT KAVP.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW MOVES IN TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW, BUT IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
EVERYWHERE. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE AT KAVP FIRST, THEN NY
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH SAT...AT KSYR/KRME, PERSISTENT IFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS/HEAVIER LAKE-EFFECT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE, RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MORE PERIODIC, FROM PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN/MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...HEDEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 090931
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
431 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 431 AM EST...A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD...WITH A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ROTATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA.

THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP /IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS/ WILL BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE. THE BEST SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...AND PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT
ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE JUST A
COATING FOR MOST SPOTS AT MOST.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. THERE WILL BE LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SPEEDS AND DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL...WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO SET UP BETWEEN NJ/NYC. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. IN
EITHER CASE...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH WOULD BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH. TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 20S...WITH MAINLY 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
W-NW WINDS ALOFT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SCARCE MOISTURE/LIMITED COVERAGE.
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW SHOWERS ON WED NIGHT/THURS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS /WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/ WHERE SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS/LOW 20S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S
FOR VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WON/T BE AS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS /FOR NOW/...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A BROAD
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING BECOMING STRONGER
OVER THE WESTERN US/WESTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT
OF THIS SETUP....850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -20 TO
-22 DEGREES C ON THURS NIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WHICH DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT FLOW IN PLACE...COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY BE OCCURRING...ALLOWING
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY. OUR REGION WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE WHICH WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ONLY MAKING
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL COLDER. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE HIGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BOTH
ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND...SO CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE RECOVERY FROM THE FRIDAY NIGHT`S
LOWS DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE HAS AN 850 MB COLD
POOL OF AROUND -30 CELSIUS PASSING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE WILL COME TO AN END AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/WEDNESDAY
WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE/FEW HOURS.
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN TO KPOU LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A
PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE LOW APPROACHES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY: -9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY: -15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
BENNINGTON VT: -11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015
PITTSFIELD MA: -4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015

FEBRUARY 13TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 8 DEGREES SET IN 1899
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1979
POUGHKEEPSIE: 13 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOWS...
ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

FEBRUARY 14TH...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...
ALBANY: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1916
GLENS FALLS: 4 DEGREES SET IN 1987
POUGHKEEPSIE: 15 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 090910
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
410 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM TO THE EAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN SPIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY
DEPARTING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MULTIPLE PASSING 700-500 HPA VORTICITY MAXIMA OVERNIGHT WILL BRING
SCT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT
REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...ALSO COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED SNOW
BANDS...WITH MODERATE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOW FALL. AS A
RESULT...WHILE MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE UNDER AN INCH...COULD
SEE 1-2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACROSS MAINLY S CT ZONES
OVERNIGHT.

SNOW/POPS REFINED BASED ON BLEND OF HRRR/RAP.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO REMAINDER OF GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL
HELP ENERGIZE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
OF AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW...AND AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS NORTH...IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW FROM THIS. ALL MODELS KEEP THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST QPF JUST TO OUR SOUTH...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR ANY FURTHER NORTHWARD SHIFT TREND.

FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE
DAYTIME. HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH AND EXTRA LIFT SUPPLIED FROM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE INVERTED
TROUGH ULTIMATELY ENDS UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LONGWAVE EASTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SURGE
OF ARCTIC AIR...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...PUSHES INTO THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST AND MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH REMAINING MAINLY NORTH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WATERS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. COLD AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...PROBABLY AN INCH OR
SO...MAINLY NORTH. THE FIRST PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA MOVES
IN FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
IN.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING
AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOW
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO TRACK WEST
OF THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 15 TO AS MUCH AS 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE
AIRMASS MONDAY. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED
WITH THE ARCTIC OUT BREAK. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL TRACK OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND PASS QUICKLY
OUT TO SEA. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL PASS S OF THE REGION TNGT.

MVFR OR LOWER THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES. CHC FOR HEAVIER SNOW TNGT WITH ACCUMS IN THE
3-6 INCH RANGE AND POSSIBLE LIFR-VLIFR VIS AT TIMES.

NE FLOW GENERALLY AOB 10KT INTO WED MRNG.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR VIS EXPECTED IN ANY SNOW THIS MRNG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR VIS EXPECTED IN ANY SNOW THIS MRNG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR VIS EXPECTED IN ANY SNOW THIS MRNG.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR VIS EXPECTED IN ANY SNOW THIS MRNG.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR VIS EXPECTED IN ANY SNOW THIS MRNG.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR VIS EXPECTED IN ANY SNOW THIS MRNG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TNGT...IFR OR LWR LIKELY WITH SNOW. ACCUMS OF 3-6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MRNG.
.THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OT 25 KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO REMAINDER OF GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...WITH GUSTS ON THE EASTERN
SOUND FALLING BELOW 25 KT...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA THERE.

SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL PRESENT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS...AND SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS WELL AS THE EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. SCA REMAINS UP
THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND DUE TO THIS AND SOME
HIGHER 5 FT SEAS FOR EXTREME EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.

THE OCEAN WILL HAVE ELEVATED SEAS LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SCA LEVEL WINDS ALSO REDEVELOP ON THE OCEAN TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

NON-OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST WATERS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTS THURSDAY ON THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE FIRST
PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW AND AN
ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONLY A LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL FROM NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NO
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.

LITTLE PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EXTENDED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR SW SUFFOLK COUNTY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT AS WATER LEVELS SHOULD NOT COME BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE
UNTIL AROUND THEN.

ALSO...MONITORING THE BATTERY CLOSELY...IF DEPARTURES DO NOT FALL
BELOW 1.7 FT...CURRENTLY AT 2.2 FT AND SLOWLY FALLING BY HIGH
TIDE...COULD TOUCH OR JUST GO ABOVE THE MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
BENCHMARK WITH TUESDAY MORNINGS HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW FAST
THE DEPARTURE FALLS OFF.

POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS INTO WEDNESDAY
DUE TO A RECENT NEW MOON AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES AFFECTING
THE REGION.

STRONG OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS OVERNIGHT. WITH LOWER
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OVERNIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS...WATER LEVELS
SHOULD BE ABOUT 1/2 FT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING FOR MOST SPOTS.
EXPECTATION OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING FOR NY/NJ HARBOR...SOUTH
SHORE BAY OF NYC...AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. MODERATE
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES ALONG THE
WESTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY.

FOR TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES...SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL PEAKING. IN ADDITION...WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE TO THE NE AS
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
OF LONG ISLAND AND NYC. THE HIGH END OF THE FORECAST RANGE COULD
COME CLOSE TO THE WATER LEVELS REACHED THIS MORNING FOR THE BAYS
OF NYC AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

THEREAFTER...MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS POSSIBLE TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
POTENTIAL GREATEST FOR SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES.

HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE A MODERATE THREAT FOR DUNE TOE
EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED POTENTIAL
FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE ISLAND. THIS IS BASED ON MODELED IMPACTS OF
GALE CENTER FROM THE USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071-073-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ075-
     080-178-179.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ080-081-
     178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ074.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ079-081.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ006-
     106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MALOIT/JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 090900
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH TODAY. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE IN THE 20S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST TUESDAY...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE
DAY WED AND AGAIN ON THU WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. PWATS ARE PRETTY LOW AND NOT A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BE IN PLACE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...THEN
TEMPERATURES RECOVER MONDAY AS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR AREA. THIS IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST
TIME PERIOD...AND A DECENT GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROF AS
IT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE
OUR NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH GFS AND
ECMWF NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT YET...BOTH MODELS DUE
SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 090900
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH TODAY. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE IN THE 20S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST TUESDAY...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE
DAY WED AND AGAIN ON THU WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. PWATS ARE PRETTY LOW AND NOT A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BE IN PLACE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...THEN
TEMPERATURES RECOVER MONDAY AS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR AREA. THIS IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST
TIME PERIOD...AND A DECENT GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROF AS
IT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE
OUR NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH GFS AND
ECMWF NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT YET...BOTH MODELS DUE
SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 090900
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH TODAY. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE IN THE 20S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST TUESDAY...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE
DAY WED AND AGAIN ON THU WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. PWATS ARE PRETTY LOW AND NOT A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BE IN PLACE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...THEN
TEMPERATURES RECOVER MONDAY AS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR AREA. THIS IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST
TIME PERIOD...AND A DECENT GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROF AS
IT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE
OUR NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH GFS AND
ECMWF NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT YET...BOTH MODELS DUE
SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 090900
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH TODAY. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE IN THE 20S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST TUESDAY...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE
DAY WED AND AGAIN ON THU WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. PWATS ARE PRETTY LOW AND NOT A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BE IN PLACE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...THEN
TEMPERATURES RECOVER MONDAY AS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR AREA. THIS IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST
TIME PERIOD...AND A DECENT GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROF AS
IT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE
OUR NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH GFS AND
ECMWF NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT YET...BOTH MODELS DUE
SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 090900
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH TODAY. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE IN THE 20S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST TUESDAY...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE
DAY WED AND AGAIN ON THU WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. PWATS ARE PRETTY LOW AND NOT A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BE IN PLACE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...THEN
TEMPERATURES RECOVER MONDAY AS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR AREA. THIS IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST
TIME PERIOD...AND A DECENT GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROF AS
IT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE
OUR NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH GFS AND
ECMWF NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT YET...BOTH MODELS DUE
SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 090851
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
351 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A STALLED STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
THE REGION SHROUDED UNDER CLOUDS TODAY...ONLY LIGHT NUISANCE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE AWAY
TONIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL DEEPEN IN ITS WAKE WITH ACCUMULATING LAKE
SNOWS DEVELOPING EAST OF BOTH LAKES. THESE LAKE SNOWS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH TIME OUR FIRST TRUE ARCTIC AIRMASS OF
THE SEASON WILL INVADE THE AREA. FRIGID TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO WITH DANGEROUSLY
LOW WIND CHILL VALUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DESPITE AN IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY...WE CAN
GENERALLY EXPECT A `WHOLE LOT OF NOTHING` TO HAPPEN ACROSS OUR
REGION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN SOME LAKE SNOWS WILL BEGIN TO BE
GENERATED.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED +PNA JET STREAM PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CONTINENT TODAY. THIS WILL FEATURE A STACKED CLOSED LOW OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO REAL DYNAMICS
REMAINING WITHIN THIS MATURE SYSTEM...WE WILL ONLY EXPERIENCE A
WEALTH OF CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY PRECIPITATION. WHILE THERE WILL BE A
DEEP ENOUGH DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH AREA WITHIN OUR CLOUD COVER...THE
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDDAY...SO
THE PCPN WILL BECOME MIXED WITH OR WILL CHANGE TO A LITTLE LIGHT
RAIN FOR SOME AREAS. THE ONLY REAL ORGANIZED SNOW WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE SOME WEAK LIFT IS
FOUND IN THE VCNTY OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SNOW ACCUMS TODAY
WILL RANGE FORM A TRACE/COATING IN MOST AREAS TO AS MUCH AS AN INCH
NORTH OF THE TUG.

TONIGHT...THE BROAD STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY `OPEN UP` AND DRIFT
EAST TO THE ADIRONDACKS. WHILE GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL REMAIN
WEAK UNDER THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...DEEPENING COLD AIR ITS WAKE WILL
ESTABLISH ENOUGH LAKE DRIVEN INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. THIS MESOSCALE LAKE RESPONSE MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE NIGHT
TO GET GOING THOUGH...AS LAKE DELTA T`S SHOULD NOT REACH CRITICAL
VALUES UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR LAKE SNOWS BY
DAYBREAK WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE A COUPLE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. OUTSIDE OF
THIS LAKE EFFECT...THERE WILL ONLY BE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW WHICH HAS BEEN MEANDERING TO OUR WEST
WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE RIPPLING DOWN THE INVERTED TROUGH INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW
MOVES EAST OF OUR LATITUDE...WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE
AND ASCENT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS. BY
THURSDAY THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE COMING TO AND END OUTSIDE
OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS.

AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WILL BECOME A CONCERN...TRANSITIONING INTO MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS STEADILY RISE ON WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 10K FEET BY
AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THURSDAY AS 850MB TEMPS PLUMMET
TO AROUND -22C.

OFF LAKE ERIE...

INITIALLY WEDNESDAY THIS WILL BE MORE OF A LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND
UPSLOPE SCENARIO WITH DEEP SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE AND ASCENT STILL
IN PLACE. WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY...WITH A STRONG UPSLOPE SIGNATURE
NOTED IN MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND THE
BOSTON HILLS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE AND ASCENT PULL
AWAY...LEAVING MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO TO UNFOLD.
WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INITIALLY DURING THE EVENING WILL VEER
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL TRANSITION THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT INTO
MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRIMARILY OVER CHAUTAUQUA AND
CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY STILL CLIPPING FAR SOUTHERN ERIE
COUNTY. UPSLOPE WILL STILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE...WITH THE HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY FOCUSING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN JUST INLAND
FROM THE LAKE.

THE SAME PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
PRODUCING MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...WITH GREATER AMOUNTS FOCUSING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN JUST INLAND FROM THE LAKE. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
THE NEWEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON. THESE UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS ARE
OFTEN THE KEY TO ACHIEVING A MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE...WITH NOTABLE CONTRIBUTIONS OF
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE COMING FROM THE UPSTREAM LAKE.

GIVEN THE ABOVE EVOLUTION...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO FALL
WEDNESDAY WITH THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE...AND THEN AGAIN
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING IF THE UPSTREAM
CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON DEVELOPS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE WILL GO
WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS...AND
SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL IN A
FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR JUST INLAND FROM THE LAKE ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WHERE TOTALS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON MAY REACH 12-16 INCHES. TOTALS ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS MAY
ALSO REACH 8-12 INCHES. AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORE...AND ALSO FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...

LAKE EFFECT WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO EVOLVE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL BE DISRUPTED WEDNESDAY BY THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE
LOW. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF THE LAKE ACROSS THE TUG HILL AS COLDER
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES WNW...ALLOWING MORE PURE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE.

MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SPREAD
OUT WITH MULTIPLE BANDS ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE FROM NIAGARA
COUNTY EAST TO OSWEGO COUNTY. THE 290 FLOW WOULD SUGGEST A RELATIVE
MAXIMUM IN SNOWFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS WAYNE AND NORTHERN
CAYUGA COUNTIES EXTENDING INTO THE SYRACUSE AREA. FARTHER WEST SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE ROCHESTER AREA. THE CURRENT MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPSTREAM CONNECTION WITH GEORGIAN BAY
WILL END UP ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SINCE THE UPSTREAM CONNECTION IS NOT FORECAST TO LINK UP
WITH THE BETTER LAKE ONTARIO BANDING ACROSS WAYNE/NORTHERN CAYUGA
COUNTIES...IT APPEARS WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA IS LESS LIKELY OFF LAKE
ONTARIO.

EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OF 2-4 INCHES IN GENERAL ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE SOMEWHAT BETTER BANDING ACROSS WAYNE AND NORTHERN
CAYUGA COUNTIES MAY PRODUCE 4-7 INCHES. THE WILDCARD IS THE GEORGIAN
BAY BAND...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THE
WEST OF ROCHESTER.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD SLIDE WITH EARLY DAY HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID TO
UPPER 20S ON THE HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. BY
THURSDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TEENS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND LOWER TEENS ON THE HILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL WEAKEN INITIALLY THURSDAY EVENING AS A NARROW
SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES AND BRINGS INCREASED
SHEAR AND DRY AIR. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW WILL BACK MORE WESTERLY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AGAIN EAST OF THE LAKES.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...THE CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A SNOW SQUALL. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
INTENSIFY EAST OF THE LAKES JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT POSSIBLY
PRODUCING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS...THEN MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BREAK
APART INTO MULTIPLE BANDS SOUTH OF THE LAKES AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BECOMES NORTHERLY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE
LAKES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS TRUE ARCTIC AIR POURS ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE EXTREME WITH SUCH A COLD
AIRMASS...BUT ALL AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY. THE DRY
AIR...SHORT NORTHERLY FETCH...AND POOR CLOUD MICROPHYSICS IN THE
BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS RELATIVELY MINOR
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE BIG STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE EXTREME COLD. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER BY FAR INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF TAKE 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -32C ON SATURDAY. TO PUT THIS
IN PROSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A
KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST
EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C. THIS FRIGID AIRMASS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ON SATURDAY...AND IF THE TIMING
WORKS OUT WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD CROSSING DURING THE DAY HIGHS
MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO
EVERYWHERE...AND 20 BELOW OR BETTER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO
LAKE INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF BITTER COLD AND WIND WILL PRODUCE
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

THE CORE OF THE COLD BEGINS TO MOVE OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
RAPID WARM-UP TO NEAR AVERAGE BY MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH BY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF ANOTHER GENERAL LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN TIER AND ALSO EAST
OF LK ONTARIO WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW.

THE MVFR CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
DAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SPOTTY MIXED PCPN EXPECTED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN
LAKE SNOWS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED. THIS WILL LEAD TO IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT SITES SUCH AS KDKK AND KJHW.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...MVFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD...STATIONARY STORM SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES
THIS MORNING...THEN AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE ERIE. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL LIKELY REACH SCA LEVELS ON LK ERIE BY LATE AFTERNOON...
AND WILL CERTAINLY BE IN PLACE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT ON LAKE ONTARIO.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL PROMOTE FRESH TO
STRONG WESTERLIES ON BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WHICH WILL BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SCA WILL BE NEEDED TO BE
ISSUED FOR LK ONTARIO IN A LATER FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST
         THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 090833
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR
MASS OF THE SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 103 AM EST TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS A
FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST TUESDAY...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE
DAY WED AND AGAIN ON THU WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. PWATS ARE PRETTY LOW AND NOT A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BE IN PLACE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...THEN
TEMPERATURES RECOVER MONDAY AS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR AREA. THIS IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST
TIME PERIOD...AND A DECENT GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROF AS
IT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE
OUR NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH GFS AND
ECMWF NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT YET...BOTH MODELS DUE
SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 090833
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR
MASS OF THE SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 103 AM EST TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS A
FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST TUESDAY...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE
DAY WED AND AGAIN ON THU WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. PWATS ARE PRETTY LOW AND NOT A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BE IN PLACE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...THEN
TEMPERATURES RECOVER MONDAY AS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR AREA. THIS IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST
TIME PERIOD...AND A DECENT GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROF AS
IT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE
OUR NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH GFS AND
ECMWF NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT YET...BOTH MODELS DUE
SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 090833
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR
MASS OF THE SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 103 AM EST TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS A
FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST TUESDAY...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE
DAY WED AND AGAIN ON THU WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. PWATS ARE PRETTY LOW AND NOT A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BE IN PLACE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...THEN
TEMPERATURES RECOVER MONDAY AS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR AREA. THIS IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST
TIME PERIOD...AND A DECENT GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROF AS
IT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE
OUR NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH GFS AND
ECMWF NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT YET...BOTH MODELS DUE
SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBGM 090808
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
308 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NY AND PA. THE UPPER TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BRING CONTINUING CHANCES FOR ON
AND OFF SNOW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL MIDWEEK WITH
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SETTING UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FOR LATE WEEK AS MUCH COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
730 PM EST UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
THIS EVENING WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPR LVL TROUGH
STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION. EXPECT THESE SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TONIGHT... PRODUCING ABOUT AN
INCH OF SNOW OR LESS. AT FIRST EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE VERY LIGHT
AS THERE IS STILL A POCKET OF DRY AIR LINGERING THAT THE SHOWERS
WILL HAVE TO FIGHT THROUGH. BY MIDNIGHT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE LOWEST LEVELS... THUS EXPECT
SNOW TO START ACCUMULATING AT THIS TIME. TEMPS FOR THE MORNING ATTM
LOOK GOOD... STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH THE LOW 20S IN THE EAST
AND UPPR 20S IN THE WESTERN ZONE. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
THE AREA CURRENTLY REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...A
COASTAL STORM OFF TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING GREAT LAKES LOW
FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN UP
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING HOWEVER TREND
CONTINUES TO BE FOR PRECIP TO HOLD OFF LONGER...NOT UNTIL MID TO
LATE EVENING DO I EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL LOW WORKS BACK INTO EASTERN ZONES AND
THE GREAT LAKES LOW SPREADS SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN FROM THE
WEST. THE UPSHOT IS THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
TONIGHT BUT WE DON`T EXPECT ACCUMULATION TO AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE
THAN A COATING TO A HALF INCH BY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW 20S OVER EASTERN AREAS TO THE UPPER 20S WEST.

AT THIS POINT, MUCH OF TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE LARGELY PRECIP FREE AS
INITIAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WE GET TONIGHT FIZZLE OUT OVER THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING. ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND RESULT IN A NEW
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW. HOWEVER MOST OF THE PRECIP
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE JUST MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHANCES FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
TROUGH EXTENDING BACK FROM COASTAL LOW LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA. AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT...A TRACE UP TO AN INCH WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS BEING OVER NE PA. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
20S ONCE AGAIN.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION DURING WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
TROUGHINESS MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH A W/NW FLOW
SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR WEST. EXPECT
THE AREA TO SEE CONTINUING SNOW FLURRIES / SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL NY, IN PART DUE TO BROAD UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE AREA BUT ALSO ENHANCED BY THE LAKES. ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD AGAIN MOSTLY BE LIGHT AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOME BETTER ALIGNED OUT OF THE W/NW. WHILE IT`S EARLY TO GET
TOO SPECIFIC, INDICATIONS ARE FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT BANDS OVER PARTS OF ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA COUNTIES
TO SET UP FOR THURSDAY. THE SET UP FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE...AMPLE LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A DEEP MIXED LAYER TO 700 MB WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR
-16 C INITIALLY AND FALLING. OUTSIDE OF THESE COUNTIES, EXPECT
BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS COLDER AIRMASS ADVECTS IN. WEAKER LAKE EFFECT WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE CWA AS WELL...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY ZONES.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE TEENS AND ONLY RISE A FEW
DEGREES THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 AM UPDATE... NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE 0Z CYCLE OF MODEL RUNS.
FORECAST HIGHS SATURDAY OF 5 (SYRACUSE) AND 6 (BINGHAMTON AIRPORT)
WOULD BE THE COLDEST DAYS SINCE FEBRUARY 20TH AND 6TH
RESPECTIVELY. MINOR TWEAKS OVER THE WEEKEND INCLUDED EXPANDED AREA
OF LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF
PA, AND INCREASING POPS OVER THE FINGER LAKES THROUGH BINGHAMTON
AREA. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

220 PM MONDAY UPDATE...
OVERALL, A MUCH MORE WINTER-LIKE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY, COMPARED
TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN FOR MOST OF THIS SEASON SO FAR.

IN THE BIG-PICTURE, A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS
TROUGH APPEARS AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO DRIVE BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR
INTO NY AND PA FOR A FEW DAYS.

DAILY WEATHER-WISE, LINGERING LAKE SNOWS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT, AS THE WIND FLOW SHIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST, OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.

ON FRIDAY, AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH, AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL SWING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT
LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF, THEN MORE LAKE SNOWS KICK IN BEHIND IT, AS A BITTER
COLD AIR MASS COMES IN ON N-NW WINDS. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND PA`S
NORTHERN TIER SHOULD GET IN ON THE LAKE-EFFECT ACTION NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOST AREAS, AS A 320-350 WIND
FLOW IS PROGGED.

THE BIG STORY FRI-SUN WILL BE THE BITTER COLD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO IN MANY SPOTS. WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR SNOW ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS,
THEN MOSTLY VFR TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW LIKELY ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT, WITH MORE IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.

AN AREA OF SNOW IS ROTATING THROUGH THE TERMINALS NOW. LONGEST
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE AT KRME, WITH SNOW ENDING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AT KAVP. MOSTLY MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS, BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR POSSIBLE AT KAVP, KBGM, AND KRME THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE REST OF TODAY IS MAINLY VFR. AFTER 20Z IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE FAR
SOUTH IN SNOW AT KAVP.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW MOVES IN TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW, BUT IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
EVERYWHERE. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE AT KAVP FIRST, THEN NY
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH SAT...AT KSYR/KRME, PERSISTENT IFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS/HEAVIER LAKE-EFFECT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE, RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MORE PERIODIC, FROM PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...KAH/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...HEDEN/MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...HEDEN




000
FXUS61 KBTV 090603
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
103 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 103 AM EST TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS A
FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT AREA SEEMS TO BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE TO -14C NORTHEAST KINGDOM...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE MID 20S...WHILE
POTSDAM/CANTON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 30S.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOPING
COLD POOL ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25. THIS
SUPPORTS ONLY LIGHT QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN FLUFF
FACTOR...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND 12Z WEDS...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS VALLEYS TO LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDS...BUT SLOWLY FALL BY
WEDS NIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST SURFACE
TO 850MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.

MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...WGH/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 090603
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
103 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 103 AM EST TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS A
FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT AREA SEEMS TO BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE TO -14C NORTHEAST KINGDOM...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE MID 20S...WHILE
POTSDAM/CANTON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 30S.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOPING
COLD POOL ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25. THIS
SUPPORTS ONLY LIGHT QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN FLUFF
FACTOR...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND 12Z WEDS...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS VALLEYS TO LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDS...BUT SLOWLY FALL BY
WEDS NIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST SURFACE
TO 850MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.

MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...WGH/RJS



000
FXUS61 KALY 090552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1252 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EST...OUR REGION IS STARTING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DIGGING TROUGH IS
BECOMING CLOSED OFF...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW PROGRESS OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AT THE SURFACE...A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM IS OFF THE COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY....WITH
AN ADDITIONAL SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER VIRGINA.

THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND THE DEPARTING
COASTAL WAVE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER OUR REGION. AS
THE COASTAL STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY...AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
IN PLACE...THIS SNOWFALL IS STARTING TO DISSIPATE. A FEW
LINGERING BANDS ORIENTED IN A NW-SE FASHION CONTINUE...ESP OVER
CENTRAL NY...BUT THEY ARE STARTING TO WEAKEN IN BOTH INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. BASED ON THE LATEST 3KM HRRR...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE
CONTINUOUS AND STEADY SNOWFALL LOOKS TO HAVE ENDED. ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION WILL JUST BE A COATING TO HALF INCH...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.

ALONG WITH THE OVERCAST CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
RANGE BETWEEN THE MID TEENS AND MID 20S...WITH THE COLDEST
READINGS OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE COASTAL LOW
WILL TRACK FROM THE DELMARVA REGION TUESDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN HEAD OUT TO SEA. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE
WILL BE OFF AND ON SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AMOUNTS BUT WITH A LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE COLD AIR
FUNNELING ACROSS THE LAKE...EXPECT A PRETTY STRONG BAND TO SET UP
WITH A FAIRLY LONG FETCH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE SHEAR. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A PASSAGE OF MID LATITUDE
TROUGH INTRODUCING COLD AIR (BUT THE NOT THE COLDEST) THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS AIR MASS WILL COME THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS
AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS POINT THE FLOW LOOKS TO
BE SHEARED FOR OPTIMAL (HEAVY) LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT WE WILL
REEVALUATE THAT THREAT AS WE LATER INTO THE WEEK.

THE REST OF THE AREA WILL DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT COLD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS
NORTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH/TEENS SOUTH.

THEN...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX...WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE
ARCTIC CIRCLE AND PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THIS
WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS NANOOK AIR
MASS COULD TOUCH OFF A BRIEF ROUND OF SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY NIGHT.
WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE WOULD LIGHT...SNOW SQUALLS
COULD PROBLEMS FOR TRAVELS. SPECIFIC TIMING FOR ANY SQUALLS IS NOT
POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL PINPOINT TIMES AS WE NEAR
FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE BITTERLY...IF NOT BRUTALLY COLD. A STIFF NORTHWEST OR NORTH
WIND WILL ADD TO THE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACK PARK. THE WIND WILL LIKELY DRIVE WIND CHILLS INTO
THE ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING THRESHOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
ELEVATED AREAS...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS IF THAT WASN`T ENOUGH...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL
OCEAN STORM TRACKING WELL OFFSHORE BUT STILL POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR SHOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...JUST
WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD WITH LOWS LOOK FOR REACH ZERO ABOUT
5 BELOW CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD....-5 TO -15 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME BREEZE STIRRING SO AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD VERY WELL BE PUSHED INTO THE ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN BITTERLY COLD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 10-15 IN THE
VALLEY...0 TO 10 ABOVE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT LEAST IT LOOKS PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL BREEZY.

BY MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE TO OUR EAST...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW A MODERATION IN THE BITTER COLD AIR TO BEGIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/WEDNESDAY
WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE/FEW HOURS.
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN TO KPOU LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A
PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE LOW APPROACHES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987
GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003
POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 090549
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1249 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM TO THE EAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN SPIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY
DEPARTING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MULTIPLE PASSING 700-500 HPA VORTICITY MAXIMA OVERNIGHT WILL BRING
SCT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT
REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...ALSO COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED SNOW
BANDS...WITH MODERATE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOW FALL. AS A
RESULT...WHILE MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE UNDER AN INCH...COULD
SEE 1-2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACROSS MAINLY S CT ZONES
OVERNIGHT.

SNOW/POPS REFINED BASED ON BLEND OF HRRR/RAP.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO REMAINDER OF GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL
HELP ENERGIZE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
OF AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW...AND AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS NORTH...IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW FROM THIS. ALL MODELS KEEP THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST QPF JUST TO OUR SOUTH...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR ANY FURTHER NORTHWARD SHIFT TREND.

FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE
DAYTIME. HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH AND EXTRA LIFT SUPPLIED FROM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE INVERTED
TROUGH ULTIMATELY ENDS UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LONGWAVE EASTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SURGE
OF ARCTIC AIR...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...PUSHES INTO THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST AND MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH REMAINING MAINLY NORTH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WATERS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. COLD AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...PROBABLY AN INCH OR
SO...MAINLY NORTH. THE FIRST PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA MOVES
IN FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
IN.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING
AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOW
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO TRACK WEST
OF THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 15 TO AS MUCH AS 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE
AIRMASS MONDAY. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED
WITH THE ARCTIC OUT BREAK. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 08Z.
NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE IFR
OR MVFR AT MOST TERMINALS...BUT SHOULD SETTLE AT MVFR AFTER 08Z.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

NE WINDS 5 TO AROUND 10 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SNOW OVERSPREADS THE TERMINALS AFTER 00Z WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO
IFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OT 25 KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO REMAINDER OF GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...WITH GUSTS ON THE EASTERN
SOUND FALLING BELOW 25 KT...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA THERE.

SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL PRESENT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS...AND SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS WELL AS THE EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. SCA REMAINS UP
THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND DUE TO THIS AND SOME
HIGHER 5 FT SEAS FOR EXTREME EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.

THE OCEAN WILL HAVE ELEVATED SEAS LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SCA LEVEL WINDS ALSO REDEVELOP ON THE OCEAN TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

NON-OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST WATERS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTS THURSDAY ON THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE FIRST
PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW AND AN
ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONLY A LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL FROM NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NO
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.

LITTLE PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EXTENDED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR SW SUFFOLK COUNTY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT AS WATER LEVELS SHOULD NOT COME BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE
UNTIL AROUND THEN.

ALSO...MONITORING THE BATTERY CLOSELY...IF DEPARTURES DO NOT FALL
BELOW 1.7 FT...CURRENTLY AT 2.2 FT AND SLOWLY FALLING BY HIGH
TIDE...COULD TOUCH OR JUST GO ABOVE THE MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
BENCHMARK WITH TUESDAY MORNINGS HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW FAST
THE DEPARTURE FALLS OFF.

POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS INTO WEDNESDAY
DUE TO A RECENT NEW MOON AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES AFFECTING
THE REGION.

STRONG OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS OVERNIGHT. WITH LOWER
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OVERNIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS...WATER LEVELS
SHOULD BE ABOUT 1/2 FT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING FOR MOST SPOTS.
EXPECTATION OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING FOR NY/NJ HARBOR...SOUTH
SHORE BAY OF NYC...AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. MODERATE
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES ALONG THE
WESTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY.

FOR TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES...SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL PEAKING. IN ADDITION...WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE TO THE NE AS
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
OF LONG ISLAND AND NYC. THE HIGH END OF THE FORECAST RANGE COULD
COME CLOSE TO THE WATER LEVELS REACHED THIS MORNING FOR THE BAYS
OF NYC AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

THEREAFTER...MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS POSSIBLE TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
POTENTIAL GREATEST FOR SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES.

HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE A MODERATE THREAT FOR DUNE TOE
EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED POTENTIAL
FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE ISLAND. THIS IS BASED ON MODELED IMPACTS OF
GALE CENTER FROM THE USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ009.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ071-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071-073-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ075-080-178-179.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ080-081-
     178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ074.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ079-081.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MALOIT/JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBGM 090540
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1240 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NY AND PA. THE UPPER TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BRING CONTINUING CHANCES FOR ON
AND OFF SNOW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL MIDWEEK WITH
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SETTING UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FOR LATE WEEK AS MUCH COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
730 PM EST UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
THIS EVENING WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPR LVL TROUGH
STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION. EXPECT THESE SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TONIGHT... PRODUCING ABOUT AN
INCH OF SNOW OR LESS. AT FIRST EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE VERY LIGHT
AS THERE IS STILL A POCKET OF DRY AIR LINGERING THAT THE SHOWERS
WILL HAVE TO FIGHT THROUGH. BY MIDNIGHT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE LOWEST LEVELS... THUS EXPECT
SNOW TO START ACCUMULATING AT THIS TIME. TEMPS FOR THE MORNING ATTM
LOOK GOOD... STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH THE LOW 20S IN THE EAST
AND UPPR 20S IN THE WESTERN ZONE. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
THE AREA CURRENTLY REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...A
COASTAL STORM OFF TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING GREAT LAKES LOW
FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN UP
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING HOWEVER TREND
CONTINUES TO BE FOR PRECIP TO HOLD OFF LONGER...NOT UNTIL MID TO
LATE EVENING DO I EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL LOW WORKS BACK INTO EASTERN ZONES AND
THE GREAT LAKES LOW SPREADS SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN FROM THE
WEST. THE UPSHOT IS THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
TONIGHT BUT WE DON`T EXPECT ACCUMULATION TO AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE
THAN A COATING TO A HALF INCH BY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW 20S OVER EASTERN AREAS TO THE UPPER 20S WEST.

AT THIS POINT, MUCH OF TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE LARGELY PRECIP FREE AS
INITIAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WE GET TONIGHT FIZZLE OUT OVER THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING. ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND RESULT IN A NEW
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW. HOWEVER MOST OF THE PRECIP
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE JUST MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHANCES FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
TROUGH EXTENDING BACK FROM COASTAL LOW LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA. AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT...A TRACE UP TO AN INCH WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS BEING OVER NE PA. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
20S ONCE AGAIN.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION DURING WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
TROUGHINESS MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH A W/NW FLOW
SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR WEST. EXPECT
THE AREA TO SEE CONTINUING SNOW FLURRIES / SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL NY, IN PART DUE TO BROAD UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE AREA BUT ALSO ENHANCED BY THE LAKES. ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD AGAIN MOSTLY BE LIGHT AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOME BETTER ALIGNED OUT OF THE W/NW. WHILE IT`S EARLY TO GET
TOO SPECIFIC, INDICATIONS ARE FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT BANDS OVER PARTS OF ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA COUNTIES
TO SET UP FOR THURSDAY. THE SET UP FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE...AMPLE LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A DEEP MIXED LAYER TO 700 MB WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR
-16 C INITIALLY AND FALLING. OUTSIDE OF THESE COUNTIES, EXPECT
BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS COLDER AIRMASS ADVECTS IN. WEAKER LAKE EFFECT WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE CWA AS WELL...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY ZONES.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE TEENS AND ONLY RISE A FEW
DEGREES THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 PM MONDAY UPDATE...
OVERALL, A MUCH MORE WINTER-LIKE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY, COMPARED
TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN FOR MOST OF THIS SEASON SO FAR.

IN THE BIG-PICTURE, A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS
TROUGH APPEARS AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO DRIVE BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR
INTO NY AND PA FOR A FEW DAYS.

DAILY WEATHER-WISE, LINGERING LAKE SNOWS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT, AS THE WIND FLOW SHIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST, OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.

ON FRIDAY, AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH, AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL SWING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT
LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF, THEN MORE LAKE SNOWS KICK IN BEHIND IT, AS A BITTER
COLD AIR MASS COMES IN ON N-NW WINDS. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND PA`S
NORTHERN TIER SHOULD GET IN ON THE LAKE-EFFECT ACTION NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOST AREAS, AS A 320-350 WIND
FLOW IS PROGGED.

THE BIG STORY FRI-SUN WILL BE THE BITTER COLD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO IN MANY SPOTS. WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR SNOW ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS,
THEN MOSTLY VFR TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW LIKELY ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT, WITH MORE IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.

AN AREA OF SNOW IS ROTATING THROUGH THE TERMINALS NOW. LONGEST
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE AT KRME, WITH SNOW ENDING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AT KAVP. MOSTLY MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS, BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR POSSIBLE AT KAVP, KBGM, AND KRME THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE REST OF TODAY IS MAINLY VFR. AFTER 20Z IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE FAR
SOUTH IN SNOW AT KAVP.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW MOVES IN TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW, BUT IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
EVERYWHERE. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE AT KAVP FIRST, THEN NY
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH SAT...AT KSYR/KRME, PERSISTENT IFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS/HEAVIER LAKE-EFFECT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE, RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MORE PERIODIC, FROM PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...KAH/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...HEDEN



000
FXUS61 KBGM 090540
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1240 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NY AND PA. THE UPPER TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BRING CONTINUING CHANCES FOR ON
AND OFF SNOW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL MIDWEEK WITH
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SETTING UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FOR LATE WEEK AS MUCH COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
730 PM EST UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
THIS EVENING WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPR LVL TROUGH
STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION. EXPECT THESE SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TONIGHT... PRODUCING ABOUT AN
INCH OF SNOW OR LESS. AT FIRST EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE VERY LIGHT
AS THERE IS STILL A POCKET OF DRY AIR LINGERING THAT THE SHOWERS
WILL HAVE TO FIGHT THROUGH. BY MIDNIGHT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE LOWEST LEVELS... THUS EXPECT
SNOW TO START ACCUMULATING AT THIS TIME. TEMPS FOR THE MORNING ATTM
LOOK GOOD... STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH THE LOW 20S IN THE EAST
AND UPPR 20S IN THE WESTERN ZONE. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
THE AREA CURRENTLY REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...A
COASTAL STORM OFF TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING GREAT LAKES LOW
FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN UP
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING HOWEVER TREND
CONTINUES TO BE FOR PRECIP TO HOLD OFF LONGER...NOT UNTIL MID TO
LATE EVENING DO I EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL LOW WORKS BACK INTO EASTERN ZONES AND
THE GREAT LAKES LOW SPREADS SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN FROM THE
WEST. THE UPSHOT IS THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
TONIGHT BUT WE DON`T EXPECT ACCUMULATION TO AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE
THAN A COATING TO A HALF INCH BY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW 20S OVER EASTERN AREAS TO THE UPPER 20S WEST.

AT THIS POINT, MUCH OF TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE LARGELY PRECIP FREE AS
INITIAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WE GET TONIGHT FIZZLE OUT OVER THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING. ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND RESULT IN A NEW
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW. HOWEVER MOST OF THE PRECIP
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE JUST MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHANCES FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
TROUGH EXTENDING BACK FROM COASTAL LOW LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA. AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT...A TRACE UP TO AN INCH WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS BEING OVER NE PA. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
20S ONCE AGAIN.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION DURING WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
TROUGHINESS MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH A W/NW FLOW
SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR WEST. EXPECT
THE AREA TO SEE CONTINUING SNOW FLURRIES / SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL NY, IN PART DUE TO BROAD UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE AREA BUT ALSO ENHANCED BY THE LAKES. ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD AGAIN MOSTLY BE LIGHT AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOME BETTER ALIGNED OUT OF THE W/NW. WHILE IT`S EARLY TO GET
TOO SPECIFIC, INDICATIONS ARE FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT BANDS OVER PARTS OF ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA COUNTIES
TO SET UP FOR THURSDAY. THE SET UP FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE...AMPLE LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A DEEP MIXED LAYER TO 700 MB WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR
-16 C INITIALLY AND FALLING. OUTSIDE OF THESE COUNTIES, EXPECT
BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS COLDER AIRMASS ADVECTS IN. WEAKER LAKE EFFECT WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE CWA AS WELL...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY ZONES.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE TEENS AND ONLY RISE A FEW
DEGREES THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 PM MONDAY UPDATE...
OVERALL, A MUCH MORE WINTER-LIKE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY, COMPARED
TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN FOR MOST OF THIS SEASON SO FAR.

IN THE BIG-PICTURE, A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS
TROUGH APPEARS AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO DRIVE BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR
INTO NY AND PA FOR A FEW DAYS.

DAILY WEATHER-WISE, LINGERING LAKE SNOWS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT, AS THE WIND FLOW SHIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST, OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.

ON FRIDAY, AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH, AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL SWING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT
LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF, THEN MORE LAKE SNOWS KICK IN BEHIND IT, AS A BITTER
COLD AIR MASS COMES IN ON N-NW WINDS. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND PA`S
NORTHERN TIER SHOULD GET IN ON THE LAKE-EFFECT ACTION NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOST AREAS, AS A 320-350 WIND
FLOW IS PROGGED.

THE BIG STORY FRI-SUN WILL BE THE BITTER COLD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO IN MANY SPOTS. WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR SNOW ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS,
THEN MOSTLY VFR TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW LIKELY ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT, WITH MORE IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.

AN AREA OF SNOW IS ROTATING THROUGH THE TERMINALS NOW. LONGEST
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE AT KRME, WITH SNOW ENDING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AT KAVP. MOSTLY MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS, BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR POSSIBLE AT KAVP, KBGM, AND KRME THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE REST OF TODAY IS MAINLY VFR. AFTER 20Z IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE FAR
SOUTH IN SNOW AT KAVP.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW MOVES IN TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW, BUT IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
EVERYWHERE. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE AT KAVP FIRST, THEN NY
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH SAT...AT KSYR/KRME, PERSISTENT IFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS/HEAVIER LAKE-EFFECT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE, RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MORE PERIODIC, FROM PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...KAH/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...HEDEN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 090438
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1138 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND BRING A
LITTLE SNOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW MAY POSSIBLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW ALONG
WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL US WITH A VERY ANOMALOUS LONGWAVE RIDGE IN THE WEST
AND A DEEPENING LOW IN THE EAST. THIS PATTERN HAS ALREADY
CONTRIBUTED TO A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF
STREAM...WITH ANOTHER ONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON ITS HEALS ABOUT A
DAY LATER /TUESDAY/. MEANWHILE CLOSER TO HOME...PERSISTENT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ROUGHLY TIED TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO UNDER THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. A WEAK TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW
WILL EVENTUALLY BE WEAKLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COASTAL LOW AS
THE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS ACROSS WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY SHOWING A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW DEPENDENT ON MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. ANY RAIN THIS EVENING WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AS TEMPERATURES DROP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT TOGETHER WITH WEAK
DYNAMIC COOLING. PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT ANY TYPE OF FREEZING
PRECIPITATION...AND THAT WHICH DOES FALL FROZEN SHOULD AMOUNT TO
ONLY AN INCH OR SO WHERE IT IS STEADY ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE.

OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
WEST TOWARD OR INTO THIS REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT BEING ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE COASTAL LOW...ONCE AGAIN EXPECT ONLY MEAGER
ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY. THE DRIEST AREA FOR THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD
SHOULD BE TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES REGION...AT LEAST THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE FINGER LAKES
REGION WITH FAR WESTERN NY ON THE DRIER AND SUBSIDENT SIDE. BUT ONCE
AGAIN...FORCING IS LIGHT AND EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...A RENEWED
CHANCE FOR SNOW MAY ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY FAR WEST. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE SLOWLY COOLING WITH
TIME...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD
EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK...WITH LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING
BACK OVER TO RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD JUST
LEAD TO WET CONDITIONS WITHOUT LASTING ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL UNFOLD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A BROAD TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A COUPLE LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVING SLOWLY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
PERSISTENT AND OCCASIONALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTS THE
ORIGINAL LOW TO TRACK FROM LAKE HURON TO WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS WILL BE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
AND 850MB TEMPS OF -8C MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. THERE ALSO COULD BE LIGHT SNOW
ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. IN EACH CASE
ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
BOTH THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO CROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL PICK UP SOME MOISTURE FROM LAKE ERIE...BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY IT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST IN A MOIST FLOW WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IN PARTICULAR (NMM/ARW) CAPTURE THIS WITH A
BURST OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...WITH LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWS CONTINUING EAST OF LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO WILL BRING A ROUND OF STEADIER SNOW EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND STEADILY
COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID TO
UPPER 20S ON THE HILLS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE INITIAL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA...HOWEVER ANOTHER ONE WILL DROP BEHIND IT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS AND USHER IN
COLDER AIR ALOFT (ABOUT -20C AT 850MB) AND ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOWS. THE BEST SETUP FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY BRING SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH AN ADDED
BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE NOTABLY
COLDER...WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST AREAS.

THIS PATTERN POSES A CHALLENGE IN TERMS OF HEADLINES. TOTAL SNOWFALL
OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2-4 INCHES IN MOST AREAS WITH JUST VERY MINOR
AMOUNTS EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD ADDING UP TO MODEST ACCUMULATIONS OVER
TIME. AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH ADDED LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. 2 DAY TOTALS MAY REACH 6-10 INCHES
ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER IF FLOW ALIGNS FOR A
LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME. AMOUNTS SE OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE. CONSIDERED AN ADVISORY (OR WATCH) FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING... BUT THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DIRECTION AND THUS THE EFFICIENCY OF UPSLOPE
FLOW. SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LAKE ENHANCEMENT TOWARDS THE END OF
THE EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO BRING HIGHER TOTALS
FROM ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY. IN ALL OF THESE CASES THERE IS
SIMPLY TOO WIDE A SPREAD IN FORECAST WIND FIELDS TO SUPPORT ANY OF
THESE HEADLINES EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY SNOWFALL WILL
REACH CRITERIA. ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WILL ALSO BE HELPFUL
IN PINNING DOWN THE EXACT LOCATION...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT
UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS WILL HEAVILY INFLUENCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A COLD WESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES EXPECTED THIS WILL
PROBABLY RESULT IN PERSISTENT BUT GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
MOSTLY EAST OF THE LAKES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT BRING BITTERLY COLD AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
12Z MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS...WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THIS WINTER
SEASON. THE 12Z GFS/GGEM/ECMWF ALL FORECAST 850MB TEMPS TO DROP TO
AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST
850MB TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF
FEBRUARY IS -28C.

TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE ZERO FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIND MAY PRODUCE
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

IN ADDITION...THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT IS
LIKELY TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE LAKES ENHANCING MOISTURE WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY BRING A BRIEF BUT HEAVY
BURST OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT. THEN BEHIND THIS IT WILL EVOLVE INTO A
MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT EVENT WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAUSING
PERSISTENT BUT GENERALLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE AIRMASS IS
COLD BUT ALSO VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS DESPITE THE
STRONG INSTABILITY.

12Z RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF START TO BREAK DOWN THIS COLD
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFER ON THE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS A
WAVE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY...WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT
A DAY SLOWER. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AT TIMES AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NY. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE...WITH SOME RAIN AT FIRST. THIS AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE WEST FROM EASTERN NY AND
POSSIBLY CLIP PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP KART VFR FOR NOW.

ON TUESDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH WILL WASH OUT OVER THE
FINGER LAKES...WITH MVFR OR VFR RETURNING FOR WESTERN NY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...MVFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH EASTERLY
WINDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO AS THE MAIN LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. THIS WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. WINDS OVER LAKE ERIE WILL ALSO
INITIALLY BE EASTERLY...BUT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER THE
TROUGH PASSAGE TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE SW-WSW THROUGH WED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...TMA/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...TMA/ZAFF
MARINE...TMA/ZAFF




000
FXUS61 KBUF 090438
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1138 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND BRING A
LITTLE SNOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW MAY POSSIBLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW ALONG
WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL US WITH A VERY ANOMALOUS LONGWAVE RIDGE IN THE WEST
AND A DEEPENING LOW IN THE EAST. THIS PATTERN HAS ALREADY
CONTRIBUTED TO A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF
STREAM...WITH ANOTHER ONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON ITS HEALS ABOUT A
DAY LATER /TUESDAY/. MEANWHILE CLOSER TO HOME...PERSISTENT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ROUGHLY TIED TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO UNDER THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. A WEAK TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW
WILL EVENTUALLY BE WEAKLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COASTAL LOW AS
THE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS ACROSS WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY SHOWING A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW DEPENDENT ON MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. ANY RAIN THIS EVENING WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AS TEMPERATURES DROP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT TOGETHER WITH WEAK
DYNAMIC COOLING. PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT ANY TYPE OF FREEZING
PRECIPITATION...AND THAT WHICH DOES FALL FROZEN SHOULD AMOUNT TO
ONLY AN INCH OR SO WHERE IT IS STEADY ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE.

OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
WEST TOWARD OR INTO THIS REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT BEING ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE COASTAL LOW...ONCE AGAIN EXPECT ONLY MEAGER
ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY. THE DRIEST AREA FOR THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD
SHOULD BE TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES REGION...AT LEAST THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE FINGER LAKES
REGION WITH FAR WESTERN NY ON THE DRIER AND SUBSIDENT SIDE. BUT ONCE
AGAIN...FORCING IS LIGHT AND EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...A RENEWED
CHANCE FOR SNOW MAY ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY FAR WEST. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE SLOWLY COOLING WITH
TIME...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD
EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK...WITH LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING
BACK OVER TO RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD JUST
LEAD TO WET CONDITIONS WITHOUT LASTING ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL UNFOLD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A BROAD TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A COUPLE LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVING SLOWLY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
PERSISTENT AND OCCASIONALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTS THE
ORIGINAL LOW TO TRACK FROM LAKE HURON TO WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS WILL BE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
AND 850MB TEMPS OF -8C MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. THERE ALSO COULD BE LIGHT SNOW
ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. IN EACH CASE
ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
BOTH THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO CROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL PICK UP SOME MOISTURE FROM LAKE ERIE...BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY IT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST IN A MOIST FLOW WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IN PARTICULAR (NMM/ARW) CAPTURE THIS WITH A
BURST OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...WITH LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWS CONTINUING EAST OF LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO WILL BRING A ROUND OF STEADIER SNOW EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND STEADILY
COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID TO
UPPER 20S ON THE HILLS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE INITIAL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA...HOWEVER ANOTHER ONE WILL DROP BEHIND IT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS AND USHER IN
COLDER AIR ALOFT (ABOUT -20C AT 850MB) AND ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOWS. THE BEST SETUP FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY BRING SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH AN ADDED
BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE NOTABLY
COLDER...WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST AREAS.

THIS PATTERN POSES A CHALLENGE IN TERMS OF HEADLINES. TOTAL SNOWFALL
OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2-4 INCHES IN MOST AREAS WITH JUST VERY MINOR
AMOUNTS EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD ADDING UP TO MODEST ACCUMULATIONS OVER
TIME. AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH ADDED LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. 2 DAY TOTALS MAY REACH 6-10 INCHES
ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER IF FLOW ALIGNS FOR A
LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME. AMOUNTS SE OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE. CONSIDERED AN ADVISORY (OR WATCH) FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING... BUT THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DIRECTION AND THUS THE EFFICIENCY OF UPSLOPE
FLOW. SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LAKE ENHANCEMENT TOWARDS THE END OF
THE EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO BRING HIGHER TOTALS
FROM ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY. IN ALL OF THESE CASES THERE IS
SIMPLY TOO WIDE A SPREAD IN FORECAST WIND FIELDS TO SUPPORT ANY OF
THESE HEADLINES EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY SNOWFALL WILL
REACH CRITERIA. ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WILL ALSO BE HELPFUL
IN PINNING DOWN THE EXACT LOCATION...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT
UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS WILL HEAVILY INFLUENCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A COLD WESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES EXPECTED THIS WILL
PROBABLY RESULT IN PERSISTENT BUT GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
MOSTLY EAST OF THE LAKES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT BRING BITTERLY COLD AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
12Z MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS...WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THIS WINTER
SEASON. THE 12Z GFS/GGEM/ECMWF ALL FORECAST 850MB TEMPS TO DROP TO
AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST
850MB TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF
FEBRUARY IS -28C.

TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE ZERO FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIND MAY PRODUCE
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

IN ADDITION...THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT IS
LIKELY TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE LAKES ENHANCING MOISTURE WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY BRING A BRIEF BUT HEAVY
BURST OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT. THEN BEHIND THIS IT WILL EVOLVE INTO A
MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT EVENT WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAUSING
PERSISTENT BUT GENERALLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE AIRMASS IS
COLD BUT ALSO VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS DESPITE THE
STRONG INSTABILITY.

12Z RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF START TO BREAK DOWN THIS COLD
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFER ON THE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS A
WAVE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY...WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT
A DAY SLOWER. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AT TIMES AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NY. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE...WITH SOME RAIN AT FIRST. THIS AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE WEST FROM EASTERN NY AND
POSSIBLY CLIP PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP KART VFR FOR NOW.

ON TUESDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH WILL WASH OUT OVER THE
FINGER LAKES...WITH MVFR OR VFR RETURNING FOR WESTERN NY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...MVFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH EASTERLY
WINDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO AS THE MAIN LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. THIS WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. WINDS OVER LAKE ERIE WILL ALSO
INITIALLY BE EASTERLY...BUT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER THE
TROUGH PASSAGE TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE SW-WSW THROUGH WED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...TMA/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...TMA/ZAFF
MARINE...TMA/ZAFF




000
FXUS61 KBUF 090438
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1138 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND BRING A
LITTLE SNOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW MAY POSSIBLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW ALONG
WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL US WITH A VERY ANOMALOUS LONGWAVE RIDGE IN THE WEST
AND A DEEPENING LOW IN THE EAST. THIS PATTERN HAS ALREADY
CONTRIBUTED TO A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF
STREAM...WITH ANOTHER ONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON ITS HEALS ABOUT A
DAY LATER /TUESDAY/. MEANWHILE CLOSER TO HOME...PERSISTENT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ROUGHLY TIED TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO UNDER THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. A WEAK TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW
WILL EVENTUALLY BE WEAKLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COASTAL LOW AS
THE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS ACROSS WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY SHOWING A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW DEPENDENT ON MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. ANY RAIN THIS EVENING WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AS TEMPERATURES DROP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT TOGETHER WITH WEAK
DYNAMIC COOLING. PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT ANY TYPE OF FREEZING
PRECIPITATION...AND THAT WHICH DOES FALL FROZEN SHOULD AMOUNT TO
ONLY AN INCH OR SO WHERE IT IS STEADY ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE.

OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
WEST TOWARD OR INTO THIS REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT BEING ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE COASTAL LOW...ONCE AGAIN EXPECT ONLY MEAGER
ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY. THE DRIEST AREA FOR THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD
SHOULD BE TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES REGION...AT LEAST THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE FINGER LAKES
REGION WITH FAR WESTERN NY ON THE DRIER AND SUBSIDENT SIDE. BUT ONCE
AGAIN...FORCING IS LIGHT AND EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...A RENEWED
CHANCE FOR SNOW MAY ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY FAR WEST. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE SLOWLY COOLING WITH
TIME...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD
EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK...WITH LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING
BACK OVER TO RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD JUST
LEAD TO WET CONDITIONS WITHOUT LASTING ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL UNFOLD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A BROAD TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A COUPLE LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVING SLOWLY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
PERSISTENT AND OCCASIONALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTS THE
ORIGINAL LOW TO TRACK FROM LAKE HURON TO WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS WILL BE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
AND 850MB TEMPS OF -8C MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. THERE ALSO COULD BE LIGHT SNOW
ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. IN EACH CASE
ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
BOTH THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO CROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL PICK UP SOME MOISTURE FROM LAKE ERIE...BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY IT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST IN A MOIST FLOW WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IN PARTICULAR (NMM/ARW) CAPTURE THIS WITH A
BURST OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...WITH LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWS CONTINUING EAST OF LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO WILL BRING A ROUND OF STEADIER SNOW EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND STEADILY
COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID TO
UPPER 20S ON THE HILLS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE INITIAL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA...HOWEVER ANOTHER ONE WILL DROP BEHIND IT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS AND USHER IN
COLDER AIR ALOFT (ABOUT -20C AT 850MB) AND ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOWS. THE BEST SETUP FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY BRING SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH AN ADDED
BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE NOTABLY
COLDER...WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST AREAS.

THIS PATTERN POSES A CHALLENGE IN TERMS OF HEADLINES. TOTAL SNOWFALL
OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2-4 INCHES IN MOST AREAS WITH JUST VERY MINOR
AMOUNTS EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD ADDING UP TO MODEST ACCUMULATIONS OVER
TIME. AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH ADDED LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. 2 DAY TOTALS MAY REACH 6-10 INCHES
ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER IF FLOW ALIGNS FOR A
LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME. AMOUNTS SE OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE. CONSIDERED AN ADVISORY (OR WATCH) FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING... BUT THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DIRECTION AND THUS THE EFFICIENCY OF UPSLOPE
FLOW. SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LAKE ENHANCEMENT TOWARDS THE END OF
THE EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO BRING HIGHER TOTALS
FROM ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY. IN ALL OF THESE CASES THERE IS
SIMPLY TOO WIDE A SPREAD IN FORECAST WIND FIELDS TO SUPPORT ANY OF
THESE HEADLINES EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY SNOWFALL WILL
REACH CRITERIA. ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WILL ALSO BE HELPFUL
IN PINNING DOWN THE EXACT LOCATION...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT
UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS WILL HEAVILY INFLUENCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A COLD WESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES EXPECTED THIS WILL
PROBABLY RESULT IN PERSISTENT BUT GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
MOSTLY EAST OF THE LAKES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT BRING BITTERLY COLD AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
12Z MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS...WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THIS WINTER
SEASON. THE 12Z GFS/GGEM/ECMWF ALL FORECAST 850MB TEMPS TO DROP TO
AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST
850MB TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF
FEBRUARY IS -28C.

TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE ZERO FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIND MAY PRODUCE
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

IN ADDITION...THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT IS
LIKELY TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE LAKES ENHANCING MOISTURE WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY BRING A BRIEF BUT HEAVY
BURST OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT. THEN BEHIND THIS IT WILL EVOLVE INTO A
MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT EVENT WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAUSING
PERSISTENT BUT GENERALLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE AIRMASS IS
COLD BUT ALSO VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS DESPITE THE
STRONG INSTABILITY.

12Z RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF START TO BREAK DOWN THIS COLD
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFER ON THE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS A
WAVE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY...WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT
A DAY SLOWER. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AT TIMES AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NY. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE...WITH SOME RAIN AT FIRST. THIS AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE WEST FROM EASTERN NY AND
POSSIBLY CLIP PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP KART VFR FOR NOW.

ON TUESDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH WILL WASH OUT OVER THE
FINGER LAKES...WITH MVFR OR VFR RETURNING FOR WESTERN NY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...MVFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH EASTERLY
WINDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO AS THE MAIN LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. THIS WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. WINDS OVER LAKE ERIE WILL ALSO
INITIALLY BE EASTERLY...BUT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER THE
TROUGH PASSAGE TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE SW-WSW THROUGH WED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...TMA/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...TMA/ZAFF
MARINE...TMA/ZAFF



000
FXUS61 KOKX 090407
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1107 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM TO THE EAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN SPIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY
DEPARTING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MULTIPLE PASSING 700-500 HPA VORTICITY MAXIMA OVERNIGHT WILL BRING
SCT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT
REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...ALSO COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED SNOW
BANDS...WITH MODERATE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOW FALL. AS A
RESULT...WHILE MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE UNDER AN INCH...COULD
SEE 1-2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACROSS MAINLY S CT ZONES
OVERNIGHT.

SNOW/POPS REFINED BASED ON BLEND OF HRRR/RAP.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO REMAINDER OF GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL
HELP ENERGIZE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
OF AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW...AND AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS NORTH...IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW FROM THIS. ALL MODELS KEEP THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST QPF JUST TO OUR SOUTH...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR ANY FURTHER NORTHWARD SHIFT TREND.

FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE
DAYTIME. HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH AND EXTRA LIFT SUPPLIED FROM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE INVERTED
TROUGH ULTIMATELY ENDS UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LONGWAVE EASTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SURGE
OF ARCTIC AIR...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...PUSHES INTO THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST AND MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH REMAINING MAINLY NORTH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WATERS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. COLD AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...PROBABLY AN INCH OR
SO...MAINLY NORTH. THE FIRST PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA MOVES
IN FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
IN.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING
AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOW
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO TRACK WEST
OF THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 15 TO AS MUCH AS 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE
AIRMASS MONDAY. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED
WITH THE ARCTIC OUT BREAK. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND THIS
EVENING WITH JUST FLURRIES ACROSS CITY TERMINALS. LESS THAN AN INCH
ACCUMULATION OF NEW SNOW AT KISP/KBDR/KGON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER
OFF FOR EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER 04Z. FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR...BUT SHOULD SETTLE AT MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 13 KT TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SNOW MAY OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS TUESDAY EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO IFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OT 25 KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO REMAINDER OF GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...WITH GUSTS ON THE EASTERN
SOUND FALLING BELOW 25 KT...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA THERE.

SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL PRESENT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS...AND SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS WELL AS THE EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. SCA REMAINS UP
THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND DUE TO THIS AND SOME
HIGHER 5 FT SEAS FOR EXTREME EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.

THE OCEAN WILL HAVE ELEVATED SEAS LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SCA LEVEL WINDS ALSO REDEVELOP ON THE OCEAN TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

NON-OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST WATERS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTS THURSDAY ON THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE FIRST
PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW AND AN
ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONLY A LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL FROM NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NO
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.

LITTLE PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EXTENDED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR SW SUFFOLK COUNTY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT AS WATER LEVELS SHOULD NOT COME BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE
UNTIL AROUND THEN.

ALSO...MONITORING THE BATTERY CLOSELY...IF DEPARTURES DO NOT FALL
BELOW 1.7 FT...CURRENTLY AT 2.2 FT AND SLOWLY FALLING BY HIGH
TIDE...COULD TOUCH OR JUST GO ABOVE THE MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
BENCHMARK WITH TUESDAY MORNINGS HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW FAST
THE DEPARTURE FALLS OFF.

POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS INTO WEDNESDAY
DUE TO A RECENT NEW MOON AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES AFFECTING
THE REGION.

STRONG OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS OVERNIGHT. WITH LOWER
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OVERNIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS...WATER LEVELS
SHOULD BE ABOUT 1/2 FT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING FOR MOST SPOTS.
EXPECTATION OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING FOR NY/NJ HARBOR...SOUTH
SHORE BAY OF NYC...AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. MODERATE
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES ALONG THE
WESTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY.

FOR TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES...SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL PEAKING. IN ADDITION...WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE TO THE NE AS
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
OF LONG ISLAND AND NYC. THE HIGH END OF THE FORECAST RANGE COULD
COME CLOSE TO THE WATER LEVELS REACHED THIS MORNING FOR THE BAYS
OF NYC AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

THEREAFTER...MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS POSSIBLE TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
POTENTIAL GREATEST FOR SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES.

HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE A MODERATE THREAT FOR DUNE TOE
EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED POTENTIAL
FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE ISLAND. THIS IS BASED ON MODELED IMPACTS OF
GALE CENTER FROM THE USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ009.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ009-010.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-078-
     177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ071-073-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ075-080-178-179.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ080-081-178-
     179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ074.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ079-081.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ080.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MALOIT/JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MALOIT/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 090407
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1107 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM TO THE EAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN SPIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY
DEPARTING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MULTIPLE PASSING 700-500 HPA VORTICITY MAXIMA OVERNIGHT WILL BRING
SCT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT
REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...ALSO COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED SNOW
BANDS...WITH MODERATE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOW FALL. AS A
RESULT...WHILE MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE UNDER AN INCH...COULD
SEE 1-2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACROSS MAINLY S CT ZONES
OVERNIGHT.

SNOW/POPS REFINED BASED ON BLEND OF HRRR/RAP.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO REMAINDER OF GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL
HELP ENERGIZE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
OF AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW...AND AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS NORTH...IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW FROM THIS. ALL MODELS KEEP THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST QPF JUST TO OUR SOUTH...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR ANY FURTHER NORTHWARD SHIFT TREND.

FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE
DAYTIME. HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH AND EXTRA LIFT SUPPLIED FROM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE INVERTED
TROUGH ULTIMATELY ENDS UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LONGWAVE EASTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SURGE
OF ARCTIC AIR...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...PUSHES INTO THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST AND MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH REMAINING MAINLY NORTH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WATERS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. COLD AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...PROBABLY AN INCH OR
SO...MAINLY NORTH. THE FIRST PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA MOVES
IN FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
IN.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING
AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOW
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO TRACK WEST
OF THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 15 TO AS MUCH AS 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE
AIRMASS MONDAY. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED
WITH THE ARCTIC OUT BREAK. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND THIS
EVENING WITH JUST FLURRIES ACROSS CITY TERMINALS. LESS THAN AN INCH
ACCUMULATION OF NEW SNOW AT KISP/KBDR/KGON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER
OFF FOR EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER 04Z. FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR...BUT SHOULD SETTLE AT MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 13 KT TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SNOW MAY OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS TUESDAY EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO IFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OT 25 KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO REMAINDER OF GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...WITH GUSTS ON THE EASTERN
SOUND FALLING BELOW 25 KT...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA THERE.

SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL PRESENT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS...AND SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS WELL AS THE EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. SCA REMAINS UP
THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND DUE TO THIS AND SOME
HIGHER 5 FT SEAS FOR EXTREME EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.

THE OCEAN WILL HAVE ELEVATED SEAS LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SCA LEVEL WINDS ALSO REDEVELOP ON THE OCEAN TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

NON-OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST WATERS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTS THURSDAY ON THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE FIRST
PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW AND AN
ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONLY A LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL FROM NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NO
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.

LITTLE PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EXTENDED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR SW SUFFOLK COUNTY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT AS WATER LEVELS SHOULD NOT COME BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE
UNTIL AROUND THEN.

ALSO...MONITORING THE BATTERY CLOSELY...IF DEPARTURES DO NOT FALL
BELOW 1.7 FT...CURRENTLY AT 2.2 FT AND SLOWLY FALLING BY HIGH
TIDE...COULD TOUCH OR JUST GO ABOVE THE MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
BENCHMARK WITH TUESDAY MORNINGS HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW FAST
THE DEPARTURE FALLS OFF.

POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS INTO WEDNESDAY
DUE TO A RECENT NEW MOON AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES AFFECTING
THE REGION.

STRONG OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS OVERNIGHT. WITH LOWER
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OVERNIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS...WATER LEVELS
SHOULD BE ABOUT 1/2 FT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING FOR MOST SPOTS.
EXPECTATION OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING FOR NY/NJ HARBOR...SOUTH
SHORE BAY OF NYC...AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. MODERATE
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES ALONG THE
WESTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY.

FOR TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES...SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL PEAKING. IN ADDITION...WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE TO THE NE AS
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
OF LONG ISLAND AND NYC. THE HIGH END OF THE FORECAST RANGE COULD
COME CLOSE TO THE WATER LEVELS REACHED THIS MORNING FOR THE BAYS
OF NYC AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

THEREAFTER...MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS POSSIBLE TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
POTENTIAL GREATEST FOR SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES.

HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE A MODERATE THREAT FOR DUNE TOE
EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED POTENTIAL
FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE ISLAND. THIS IS BASED ON MODELED IMPACTS OF
GALE CENTER FROM THE USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ009.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ009-010.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-078-
     177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ071-073-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ075-080-178-179.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ080-081-178-
     179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ074.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ079-081.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ080.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MALOIT/JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MALOIT/NV



000
FXUS61 KOKX 090407
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1107 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM TO THE EAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN SPIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY
DEPARTING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MULTIPLE PASSING 700-500 HPA VORTICITY MAXIMA OVERNIGHT WILL BRING
SCT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT
REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...ALSO COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED SNOW
BANDS...WITH MODERATE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOW FALL. AS A
RESULT...WHILE MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE UNDER AN INCH...COULD
SEE 1-2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACROSS MAINLY S CT ZONES
OVERNIGHT.

SNOW/POPS REFINED BASED ON BLEND OF HRRR/RAP.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO REMAINDER OF GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL
HELP ENERGIZE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
OF AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW...AND AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS NORTH...IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW FROM THIS. ALL MODELS KEEP THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST QPF JUST TO OUR SOUTH...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR ANY FURTHER NORTHWARD SHIFT TREND.

FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE
DAYTIME. HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH AND EXTRA LIFT SUPPLIED FROM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE INVERTED
TROUGH ULTIMATELY ENDS UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LONGWAVE EASTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SURGE
OF ARCTIC AIR...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...PUSHES INTO THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST AND MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH REMAINING MAINLY NORTH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WATERS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. COLD AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...PROBABLY AN INCH OR
SO...MAINLY NORTH. THE FIRST PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA MOVES
IN FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
IN.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING
AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOW
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO TRACK WEST
OF THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 15 TO AS MUCH AS 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE
AIRMASS MONDAY. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED
WITH THE ARCTIC OUT BREAK. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND THIS
EVENING WITH JUST FLURRIES ACROSS CITY TERMINALS. LESS THAN AN INCH
ACCUMULATION OF NEW SNOW AT KISP/KBDR/KGON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER
OFF FOR EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER 04Z. FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR...BUT SHOULD SETTLE AT MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 13 KT TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SNOW MAY OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS TUESDAY EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO IFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OT 25 KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO REMAINDER OF GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...WITH GUSTS ON THE EASTERN
SOUND FALLING BELOW 25 KT...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA THERE.

SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL PRESENT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS...AND SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS WELL AS THE EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. SCA REMAINS UP
THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND DUE TO THIS AND SOME
HIGHER 5 FT SEAS FOR EXTREME EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.

THE OCEAN WILL HAVE ELEVATED SEAS LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SCA LEVEL WINDS ALSO REDEVELOP ON THE OCEAN TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

NON-OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST WATERS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTS THURSDAY ON THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE FIRST
PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW AND AN
ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONLY A LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL FROM NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NO
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.

LITTLE PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EXTENDED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR SW SUFFOLK COUNTY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT AS WATER LEVELS SHOULD NOT COME BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE
UNTIL AROUND THEN.

ALSO...MONITORING THE BATTERY CLOSELY...IF DEPARTURES DO NOT FALL
BELOW 1.7 FT...CURRENTLY AT 2.2 FT AND SLOWLY FALLING BY HIGH
TIDE...COULD TOUCH OR JUST GO ABOVE THE MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
BENCHMARK WITH TUESDAY MORNINGS HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW FAST
THE DEPARTURE FALLS OFF.

POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS INTO WEDNESDAY
DUE TO A RECENT NEW MOON AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES AFFECTING
THE REGION.

STRONG OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS OVERNIGHT. WITH LOWER
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OVERNIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS...WATER LEVELS
SHOULD BE ABOUT 1/2 FT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING FOR MOST SPOTS.
EXPECTATION OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING FOR NY/NJ HARBOR...SOUTH
SHORE BAY OF NYC...AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. MODERATE
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES ALONG THE
WESTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY.

FOR TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES...SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL PEAKING. IN ADDITION...WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE TO THE NE AS
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
OF LONG ISLAND AND NYC. THE HIGH END OF THE FORECAST RANGE COULD
COME CLOSE TO THE WATER LEVELS REACHED THIS MORNING FOR THE BAYS
OF NYC AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

THEREAFTER...MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS POSSIBLE TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
POTENTIAL GREATEST FOR SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES.

HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE A MODERATE THREAT FOR DUNE TOE
EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED POTENTIAL
FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE ISLAND. THIS IS BASED ON MODELED IMPACTS OF
GALE CENTER FROM THE USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ009.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ009-010.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-078-
     177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ071-073-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ075-080-178-179.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ080-081-178-
     179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ074.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ079-081.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ080.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MALOIT/JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MALOIT/NV




000
FXUS61 KALY 090333
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EST...A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW WAS WORKING
INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
WAS ISSUED REGARDING IT.

IT LOOKS AS IF IT SHOULD MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH PUT COULD
PUT DOWN AN INCH IN A LITTLE OVER AN HOUR/S TIME IN SOME
PLACES BEFORE IT LIFTS TO THE NORTH.

THIS BAND APPEARS ASSOCIATED MORE WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER
MOISTURE FROM THE EDGE OF THE LARGE OCEAN STORM.

AFTER THAT BANDS GOES THROUGH...EXPECT ONLY PERIODS OF LIGHT
OR SNOW OR FLURRIES FOR MOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SINCE THERE IS STILL A LITTLE SNOW TAKING PLACE ACROSS
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WILL KEEP THE WINTER ADVISORY FOR
THAT COUNTY A LITTLE LONGER.

STILL LOOKING FOR A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN MOST PLACES
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE. ACROSS LITCHFIELD COUNTY...IT LOOKS AS IF THEY WILL RECEIVE
AN AVERAGE OF 3-6 INCHES.


SOME MOHAWK HUDSON CONVERGENCE (MHC) STILL ALSO LOOKS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. THIS TAKES PLACE WHEN THE WIND AT ALBANY IS FROM THE
NORTH WHILE MORE OF AN NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AT GLENS FALLS AND
EITHER A NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY WIND FURTHER WEST IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. THE LATTER HAS YET TO HAPPEN BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 20 IN MOST PLACES...TEENS UP IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS NORTH AND ALBANY.

A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE COASTAL LOW
WILL TRACK FROM THE DELMARVA REGION TUESDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN HEAD OUT TO SEA. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE
WILL BE OFF AND ON SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AMOUNTS BUT WITH A LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE COLD AIR
FUNNELING ACROSS THE LAKE...EXPECT A PRETTY STRONG BAND TO SET UP
WITH A FAIRLY LONG FETCH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE SHEAR. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A PASSAGE OF MID LATITUDE TROUGH INTRODUCING
COLD AIR (BUT THE NOT THE COLDEST) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS AIR MASS
WILL COME THE USUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS POINT THE FLOW LOOKS TO
BE SHEARED FOR OPTIMAL (HEAVY) LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT WE WILL
REEVALUATE THAT THREAT AS WE LATER INTO THE WEEK.

THE REST OF THE AREA WILL DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT COLD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS
NORTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH/TEENS SOUTH.

THEN...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX...WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE
AND PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THIS WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS NANOOK AIR MASS COULD TOUCH OFF A BRIEF ROUND OF
SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE
WOULD LIGHT...SNOW SQUALLS COULD PROBLEMS FOR TRAVELS. SPECIFIC TIMING FOR
ANY SQUALLS IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL PINPOINT TIMES
AS WE NEAR FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE BITTERLY...IF NOT BRUTALLY COLD. A STIFF NORTHWEST OR NORTH
WIND WILL ADD TO THE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACK PARK. THE WIND WILL LIKELY DRIVE WIND CHILLS INTO
THE ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING THRESHOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
ELEVATED AREAS...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS IF THAT WASN`T ENOUGH...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL
OCEAN STORM TRACKING WELL OFFSHORE BUT STILL POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR SHOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...JUST
WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD WITH LOWS LOOK FOR REACH ZERO ABOUT
5 BELOW CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD....-5 TO -15 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME BREEZE STIRRING SO AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD VERY WELL BE PUSHED INTO THE ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN BITTERLY COLD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 10-15 IN THE
VALLEY...0 TO 10 ABOVE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT LEAST IT LOOKS PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL BREEZY.

BY MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE TO OUR EAST...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW A MODERATION IN THE BITTER COLD AIR TO BEGIN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAFS
DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. THIS SNOW SHOULD END BY 03Z AT KPOU/04Z
KPSF AND AROUND 06Z KALB AND KGFL. A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW
WILL WORK OVER KALB THROUGH ABOUT 05Z SO VISIBILITIES THERE
COULD GO DOWN TO 1/2SM (HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR THEM THROUGH
04Z.

AFTER THE SNOW TAPER TO FLURRIES...WE SHOULD BE LEFT WITH MVFR CIGS
(LOW MVFR WITH EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED AT KPSF).

THESE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST AT ALL THE TAFS (OTHER THAN KALB)
THROUGH TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH WE DO RAISE THEM TO 4000 FEET AGL AT
KALB.

THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT KPSF AND KGFL 5-10KTS TONIGHT
BUT MORE NORTHERLY AT KALB AND KGFL. THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING A LITTLE MORE SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 090303
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1003 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM TO THE EAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN SPIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY
DEPARTING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MULTIPLE PASSING 700-500 HPA VORTICITY MAXIMA OVERNIGHT WILL BRING
SCT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT
REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...ALSO COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED SNOW
BANDS...WITH MODERATE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOW FALL. AS A
RESULT...WHILE MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE UNDER AN INCH...COULD
SEE 1-2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACROSS MAINLY S CT ZONES
OVERNIGHT.

SNOW/POPS REFINED BASED ON BLEND OF HRRR/RAP.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO REMAINDER OF GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL
HELP ENERGIZE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
OF AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW...AND AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS NORTH...IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW FROM THIS. ALL MODELS KEEP THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST QPF JUST TO OUR SOUTH...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR ANY FURTHER NORTHWARD SHIFT TREND.

FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE
DAYTIME. HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH AND EXTRA LIFT SUPPLIED FROM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE INVERTED
TROUGH ULTIMATELY ENDS UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LONGWAVE EASTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SURGE
OF ARCTIC AIR...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...PUSHES INTO THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST AND MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH REMAINING MAINLY NORTH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WATERS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. COLD AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...PROBABLY AN INCH OR
SO...MAINLY NORTH. THE FIRST PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA MOVES
IN FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
IN.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING
AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOW
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO TRACK WEST
OF THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 15 TO AS MUCH AS 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE
AIRMASS MONDAY. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED
WITH THE ARCTIC OUT BREAK. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND THIS
EVENING WITH JUST FLURRIES ACROSS CITY TERMINALS. LESS THAN AN INCH
ACCUMULATION OF NEW SNOW AT KISP/KBDR/KGON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER
OFF FOR EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER 04Z. FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR...BUT SHOULD SETTLE AT MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 13 KT TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SNOW MAY OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS TUESDAY EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO IFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OT 25 KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO REMAINDER OF GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...WITH GUSTS ON THE EASTERN
SOUND FALLING BELOW 25 KT...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA THERE.

SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL PRESENT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS...AND SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS WELL AS THE EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. SCA REMAINS UP
THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND DUE TO THIS AND SOME
HIGHER 5 FT SEAS FOR EXTREME EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.

THE OCEAN WILL HAVE ELEVATED SEAS LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SCA LEVEL WINDS ALSO REDEVELOP ON THE OCEAN TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

NON-OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST WATERS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTS THURSDAY ON THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE FIRST
PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW AND AN
ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONLY A LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL FROM NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NO
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.

LITTLE PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY DUE TO TODAYS NEW MOON AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES
AFFECTING THE REGION.

STRONG OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THIS EVENING. WITH LOWER
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TONIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS...WATER LEVELS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 1/2 FT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING FOR MOST SPOTS. EXPECTATION
OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING FOR NY/NJ HARBOR...SOUTH SHORE BAY OF
NYC...AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED
FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY.

FOR TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES...SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL PEAKING. IN ADDITION...WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE TO THE NE AS
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
OF LONG ISLAND AND NYC. THE HIGH END OF THE FORECAST RANGE COULD
COME CLOSE TO THE WATER LEVELS REACHED THIS MORNING FOR THE BAYS
OF NYC AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

THEREAFTER...MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS POSSIBLE TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
POTENTIAL GREATEST FOR SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES.

HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE A MODERATE THREAT FOR DUNE TOE
EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED POTENTIAL
FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE ISLAND. THIS IS BASED ON MODELED IMPACTS OF
GALE CENTER FROM THE USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14

LOCATION...RECORD LOW/YEAR...FORECAST LOW
NEWARK..............0/1979.........5
BRIDGEPORT..........3/2015*........5
CENTRAL PARK........2/1916.........7
LAGUARDIA...........1/1979.........8
JF KENNEDY..........4/1979.........6
ISLIP...............7/2015*........4
* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ009.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ009-010.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-078-
     177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ071-073-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ075-080-178-179.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ080-081-178-
     179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ074-
     080.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ074.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ079-081.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106-108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MALOIT/JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 090303
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1003 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM TO THE EAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN SPIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY
DEPARTING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MULTIPLE PASSING 700-500 HPA VORTICITY MAXIMA OVERNIGHT WILL BRING
SCT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT
REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...ALSO COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED SNOW
BANDS...WITH MODERATE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOW FALL. AS A
RESULT...WHILE MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE UNDER AN INCH...COULD
SEE 1-2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACROSS MAINLY S CT ZONES
OVERNIGHT.

SNOW/POPS REFINED BASED ON BLEND OF HRRR/RAP.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO REMAINDER OF GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL
HELP ENERGIZE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
OF AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW...AND AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS NORTH...IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW FROM THIS. ALL MODELS KEEP THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST QPF JUST TO OUR SOUTH...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR ANY FURTHER NORTHWARD SHIFT TREND.

FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE
DAYTIME. HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH AND EXTRA LIFT SUPPLIED FROM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE INVERTED
TROUGH ULTIMATELY ENDS UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LONGWAVE EASTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SURGE
OF ARCTIC AIR...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...PUSHES INTO THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST AND MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH REMAINING MAINLY NORTH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WATERS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. COLD AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...PROBABLY AN INCH OR
SO...MAINLY NORTH. THE FIRST PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA MOVES
IN FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
IN.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING
AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOW
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO TRACK WEST
OF THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 15 TO AS MUCH AS 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE
AIRMASS MONDAY. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED
WITH THE ARCTIC OUT BREAK. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND THIS
EVENING WITH JUST FLURRIES ACROSS CITY TERMINALS. LESS THAN AN INCH
ACCUMULATION OF NEW SNOW AT KISP/KBDR/KGON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER
OFF FOR EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER 04Z. FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR...BUT SHOULD SETTLE AT MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 13 KT TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SNOW MAY OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS TUESDAY EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO IFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OT 25 KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO REMAINDER OF GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...WITH GUSTS ON THE EASTERN
SOUND FALLING BELOW 25 KT...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA THERE.

SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL PRESENT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS...AND SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS WELL AS THE EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. SCA REMAINS UP
THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND DUE TO THIS AND SOME
HIGHER 5 FT SEAS FOR EXTREME EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.

THE OCEAN WILL HAVE ELEVATED SEAS LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SCA LEVEL WINDS ALSO REDEVELOP ON THE OCEAN TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

NON-OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST WATERS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTS THURSDAY ON THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE FIRST
PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW AND AN
ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONLY A LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL FROM NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NO
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.

LITTLE PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY DUE TO TODAYS NEW MOON AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES
AFFECTING THE REGION.

STRONG OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THIS EVENING. WITH LOWER
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TONIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS...WATER LEVELS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 1/2 FT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING FOR MOST SPOTS. EXPECTATION
OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING FOR NY/NJ HARBOR...SOUTH SHORE BAY OF
NYC...AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED
FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY.

FOR TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES...SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL PEAKING. IN ADDITION...WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE TO THE NE AS
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
OF LONG ISLAND AND NYC. THE HIGH END OF THE FORECAST RANGE COULD
COME CLOSE TO THE WATER LEVELS REACHED THIS MORNING FOR THE BAYS
OF NYC AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

THEREAFTER...MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS POSSIBLE TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
POTENTIAL GREATEST FOR SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES.

HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE A MODERATE THREAT FOR DUNE TOE
EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED POTENTIAL
FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE ISLAND. THIS IS BASED ON MODELED IMPACTS OF
GALE CENTER FROM THE USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14

LOCATION...RECORD LOW/YEAR...FORECAST LOW
NEWARK..............0/1979.........5
BRIDGEPORT..........3/2015*........5
CENTRAL PARK........2/1916.........7
LAGUARDIA...........1/1979.........8
JF KENNEDY..........4/1979.........6
ISLIP...............7/2015*........4
* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ009.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ009-010.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-078-
     177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ071-073-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ075-080-178-179.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ080-081-178-
     179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ074-
     080.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ074.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ079-081.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106-108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MALOIT/JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 090303
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1003 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM TO THE EAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN SPIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY
DEPARTING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MULTIPLE PASSING 700-500 HPA VORTICITY MAXIMA OVERNIGHT WILL BRING
SCT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT
REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...ALSO COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED SNOW
BANDS...WITH MODERATE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOW FALL. AS A
RESULT...WHILE MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE UNDER AN INCH...COULD
SEE 1-2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACROSS MAINLY S CT ZONES
OVERNIGHT.

SNOW/POPS REFINED BASED ON BLEND OF HRRR/RAP.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO REMAINDER OF GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL
HELP ENERGIZE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
OF AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW...AND AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS NORTH...IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW FROM THIS. ALL MODELS KEEP THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST QPF JUST TO OUR SOUTH...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR ANY FURTHER NORTHWARD SHIFT TREND.

FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE
DAYTIME. HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH AND EXTRA LIFT SUPPLIED FROM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE INVERTED
TROUGH ULTIMATELY ENDS UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LONGWAVE EASTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SURGE
OF ARCTIC AIR...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...PUSHES INTO THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST AND MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH REMAINING MAINLY NORTH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WATERS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. COLD AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...PROBABLY AN INCH OR
SO...MAINLY NORTH. THE FIRST PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA MOVES
IN FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
IN.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING
AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOW
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO TRACK WEST
OF THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 15 TO AS MUCH AS 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE
AIRMASS MONDAY. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED
WITH THE ARCTIC OUT BREAK. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND THIS
EVENING WITH JUST FLURRIES ACROSS CITY TERMINALS. LESS THAN AN INCH
ACCUMULATION OF NEW SNOW AT KISP/KBDR/KGON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER
OFF FOR EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER 04Z. FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR...BUT SHOULD SETTLE AT MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 13 KT TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SNOW MAY OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS TUESDAY EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO IFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OT 25 KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO REMAINDER OF GRIDS TO
REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...WITH GUSTS ON THE EASTERN
SOUND FALLING BELOW 25 KT...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA THERE.

SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL PRESENT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS...AND SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS WELL AS THE EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. SCA REMAINS UP
THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND DUE TO THIS AND SOME
HIGHER 5 FT SEAS FOR EXTREME EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.

THE OCEAN WILL HAVE ELEVATED SEAS LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SCA LEVEL WINDS ALSO REDEVELOP ON THE OCEAN TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

NON-OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST WATERS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTS THURSDAY ON THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE FIRST
PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW AND AN
ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONLY A LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL FROM NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NO
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.

LITTLE PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY DUE TO TODAYS NEW MOON AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES
AFFECTING THE REGION.

STRONG OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THIS EVENING. WITH LOWER
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TONIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS...WATER LEVELS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 1/2 FT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING FOR MOST SPOTS. EXPECTATION
OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING FOR NY/NJ HARBOR...SOUTH SHORE BAY OF
NYC...AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED
FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY.

FOR TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES...SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL PEAKING. IN ADDITION...WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE TO THE NE AS
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
OF LONG ISLAND AND NYC. THE HIGH END OF THE FORECAST RANGE COULD
COME CLOSE TO THE WATER LEVELS REACHED THIS MORNING FOR THE BAYS
OF NYC AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

THEREAFTER...MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS POSSIBLE TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
POTENTIAL GREATEST FOR SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES.

HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE A MODERATE THREAT FOR DUNE TOE
EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED POTENTIAL
FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE ISLAND. THIS IS BASED ON MODELED IMPACTS OF
GALE CENTER FROM THE USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14

LOCATION...RECORD LOW/YEAR...FORECAST LOW
NEWARK..............0/1979.........5
BRIDGEPORT..........3/2015*........5
CENTRAL PARK........2/1916.........7
LAGUARDIA...........1/1979.........8
JF KENNEDY..........4/1979.........6
ISLIP...............7/2015*........4
* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ009.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ009-010.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-078-
     177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ071-073-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ075-080-178-179.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ080-081-178-
     179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ074-
     080.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ074.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ079-081.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106-108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MALOIT/JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBUF 090244
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
944 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SPREAD A LITTLE
SNOW OVER AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE FINGER LAKES. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW MAY POSSIBLY MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW ALONG WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A BLAST OF
COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL US WITH A VERY ANOMALOUS LONGWAVE RIDGE IN THE WEST
AND A DEEPENING LOW IN THE EAST. THIS PATTERN HAS ALREADY
CONTRIBUTED TO A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF
STREAM...WITH ANOTHER ONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON ITS HEALS ABOUT A
DAY LATER /TUESDAY/. MEANWHILE CLOSER TO HOME...PERSISTENT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ROUGHLY TIED TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO UNDER THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. A WEAK TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW
WILL EVENTUALLY BE WEAKLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COASTAL LOW AS
THE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS ACROSS WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY SHOWING A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW DEPENDENT ON MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. ANY RAIN THIS EVENING WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AS TEMPERATURES DROP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT TOGETHER WITH WEAK
DYNAMIC COOLING. PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT ANY TYPE OF FREEZING
PRECIPITATION...AND THAT WHICH DOES FALL FROZEN SHOULD AMOUNT TO
ONLY AN INCH OR SO WHERE IT IS STEADY ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE.

OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
WEST TOWARD OR INTO THIS REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT BEING ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE COASTAL LOW...ONCE AGAIN EXPECT ONLY MEAGER
ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY. THE DRIEST AREA FOR THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD
SHOULD BE TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES REGION...AT LEAST THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE FINGER LAKES
REGION WITH FAR WESTERN NY ON THE DRIER AND SUBSIDENT SIDE. BUT ONCE
AGAIN...FORCING IS LIGHT AND EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...A RENEWED
CHANCE FOR SNOW MAY ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY FAR WEST. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE SLOWLY COOLING WITH
TIME...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD
EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK...WITH LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING
BACK OVER TO RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD JUST
LEAD TO WET CONDITIONS WITHOUT LASTING ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL UNFOLD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A BROAD TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A COUPLE LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVING SLOWLY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
PERSISTENT AND OCCASIONALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTS THE
ORIGINAL LOW TO TRACK FROM LAKE HURON TO WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS WILL BE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
AND 850MB TEMPS OF -8C MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. THERE ALSO COULD BE LIGHT SNOW
ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. IN EACH CASE
ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
BOTH THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO CROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL PICK UP SOME MOISTURE FROM LAKE ERIE...BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY IT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST IN A MOIST FLOW WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IN PARTICULAR (NMM/ARW) CAPTURE THIS WITH A
BURST OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...WITH LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWS CONTINUING EAST OF LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO WILL BRING A ROUND OF STEADIER SNOW EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND STEADILY
COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID TO
UPPER 20S ON THE HILLS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE INITIAL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA...HOWEVER ANOTHER ONE WILL DROP BEHIND IT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS AND USHER IN
COLDER AIR ALOFT (ABOUT -20C AT 850MB) AND ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOWS. THE BEST SETUP FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY BRING SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH AN ADDED
BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE NOTABLY
COLDER...WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST AREAS.

THIS PATTERN POSES A CHALLENGE IN TERMS OF HEADLINES. TOTAL SNOWFALL
OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2-4 INCHES IN MOST AREAS WITH JUST VERY MINOR
AMOUNTS EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD ADDING UP TO MODEST ACCUMULATIONS OVER
TIME. AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH ADDED LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. 2 DAY TOTALS MAY REACH 6-10 INCHES
ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER IF FLOW ALIGNS FOR A
LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME. AMOUNTS SE OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE. CONSIDERED AN ADVISORY (OR WATCH) FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING... BUT THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DIRECTION AND THUS THE EFFICIENCY OF UPSLOPE
FLOW. SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LAKE ENHANCEMENT TOWARDS THE END OF
THE EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO BRING HIGHER TOTALS
FROM ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY. IN ALL OF THESE CASES THERE IS
SIMPLY TOO WIDE A SPREAD IN FORECAST WIND FIELDS TO SUPPORT ANY OF
THESE HEADLINES EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY SNOWFALL WILL
REACH CRITERIA. ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WILL ALSO BE HELPFUL
IN PINNING DOWN THE EXACT LOCATION...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT
UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS WILL HEAVILY INFLUENCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A COLD WESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES EXPECTED THIS WILL
PROBABLY RESULT IN PERSISTENT BUT GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
MOSTLY EAST OF THE LAKES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT BRING BITTERLY COLD AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
12Z MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS...WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THIS WINTER
SEASON. THE 12Z GFS/GGEM/ECMWF ALL FORECAST 850MB TEMPS TO DROP TO
AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST
850MB TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF
FEBRUARY IS -28C.

TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE ZERO FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIND MAY PRODUCE
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

IN ADDITION...THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT IS
LIKELY TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE LAKES ENHANCING MOISTURE WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY BRING A BRIEF BUT HEAVY
BURST OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT. THEN BEHIND THIS IT WILL EVOLVE INTO A
MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT EVENT WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAUSING
PERSISTENT BUT GENERALLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE AIRMASS IS
COLD BUT ALSO VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS DESPITE THE
STRONG INSTABILITY.

12Z RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF START TO BREAK DOWN THIS COLD
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFER ON THE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS A
WAVE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY...WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT
A DAY SLOWER. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AT TIMES AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NY. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE...WITH SOME RAIN AT FIRST. THIS AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE WEST FROM EASTERN NY AND
POSSIBLY CLIP PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP KART VFR FOR NOW.

ON TUESDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH WILL WASH OUT OVER THE
FINGER LAKES...WITH MVFR OR VFR RETURNING FOR WESTERN NY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...MVFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY
WINDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO AS THE MAIN LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. THIS WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. WINDS OVER LAKE ERIE WILL ALSO
INITIALLY BE EASTERLY...BUT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER THE
TROUGH PASSAGE TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE SW-WSW THROUGH WED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...TMA/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...TMA/ZAFF
MARINE...ZAFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 090241
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
941 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 941 PM EST MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS VERMONT.
HAVE UPPER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL MOST AREAS AND
FINE TUNED DEW POINTS GIVEN THE SHARP DRY TO MOIST SCENARIO AS
PRECIPITATION FINALLY DEVELOPS. REMAINDER OF GOING FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE. STILL LOOKING AT MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT PICKING UP AN
INCH OR SO OF SNOW BY THE TUESDAY MORNING WORK COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT AREA SEEMS TO BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE TO -14C NORTHEAST KINGDOM...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE MID 20S...WHILE
POTSDAM/CANTON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 30S.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOPING
COLD POOL ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25. THIS
SUPPORTS ONLY LIGHT QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN FLUFF
FACTOR...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND 12Z WEDS...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS VALLEYS TO LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDS...BUT SLOWLY FALL BY
WEDS NIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST SURFACE
TO 850MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.

MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY VFR, EVENTUALLY DETERIORATING
TO MIX OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS
FROM THE EAST, BUILDING BACK WESTWARD. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR WITH INTERVALS IFR IN LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
TUESDAY.

VERY DRY AIR HAS KEPT LIGHT SNOW FROM FALLING DESPITE RADAR
PRESENTATION ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. RECENT INDICATIONS PER VSF METAR
INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVELS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE SATURATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT, WHICH SHOULD ALSO BE THE TREND INTO THE EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE TAFS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO DROP FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST, SOONEST AT RUT/MPV AND LATER AT MSS, WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS.
WINDS LIGHT EASTERLY.

PRECIPITATION CHARACTER BECOMES MORE INTERMITTENT/SHOWERY WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CEILING HEIGHTS TUESDAY. HOWEVER VIS MAY
BE AS LOW AS IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH MAY BE THE MOST PERSISTENT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. WINDS
LIGHT/VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 090241
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
941 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 941 PM EST MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS VERMONT.
HAVE UPPER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL MOST AREAS AND
FINE TUNED DEW POINTS GIVEN THE SHARP DRY TO MOIST SCENARIO AS
PRECIPITATION FINALLY DEVELOPS. REMAINDER OF GOING FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE. STILL LOOKING AT MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT PICKING UP AN
INCH OR SO OF SNOW BY THE TUESDAY MORNING WORK COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT AREA SEEMS TO BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE TO -14C NORTHEAST KINGDOM...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE MID 20S...WHILE
POTSDAM/CANTON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 30S.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOPING
COLD POOL ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25. THIS
SUPPORTS ONLY LIGHT QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN FLUFF
FACTOR...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND 12Z WEDS...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS VALLEYS TO LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDS...BUT SLOWLY FALL BY
WEDS NIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST SURFACE
TO 850MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.

MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY VFR, EVENTUALLY DETERIORATING
TO MIX OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS
FROM THE EAST, BUILDING BACK WESTWARD. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR WITH INTERVALS IFR IN LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
TUESDAY.

VERY DRY AIR HAS KEPT LIGHT SNOW FROM FALLING DESPITE RADAR
PRESENTATION ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. RECENT INDICATIONS PER VSF METAR
INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVELS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE SATURATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT, WHICH SHOULD ALSO BE THE TREND INTO THE EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE TAFS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO DROP FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST, SOONEST AT RUT/MPV AND LATER AT MSS, WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS.
WINDS LIGHT EASTERLY.

PRECIPITATION CHARACTER BECOMES MORE INTERMITTENT/SHOWERY WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CEILING HEIGHTS TUESDAY. HOWEVER VIS MAY
BE AS LOW AS IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH MAY BE THE MOST PERSISTENT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. WINDS
LIGHT/VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 090241
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
941 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 941 PM EST MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS VERMONT.
HAVE UPPER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL MOST AREAS AND
FINE TUNED DEW POINTS GIVEN THE SHARP DRY TO MOIST SCENARIO AS
PRECIPITATION FINALLY DEVELOPS. REMAINDER OF GOING FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE. STILL LOOKING AT MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT PICKING UP AN
INCH OR SO OF SNOW BY THE TUESDAY MORNING WORK COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT AREA SEEMS TO BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE TO -14C NORTHEAST KINGDOM...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE MID 20S...WHILE
POTSDAM/CANTON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 30S.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOPING
COLD POOL ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25. THIS
SUPPORTS ONLY LIGHT QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN FLUFF
FACTOR...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND 12Z WEDS...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS VALLEYS TO LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDS...BUT SLOWLY FALL BY
WEDS NIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST SURFACE
TO 850MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.

MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY VFR, EVENTUALLY DETERIORATING
TO MIX OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS
FROM THE EAST, BUILDING BACK WESTWARD. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR WITH INTERVALS IFR IN LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
TUESDAY.

VERY DRY AIR HAS KEPT LIGHT SNOW FROM FALLING DESPITE RADAR
PRESENTATION ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. RECENT INDICATIONS PER VSF METAR
INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVELS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE SATURATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT, WHICH SHOULD ALSO BE THE TREND INTO THE EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE TAFS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO DROP FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST, SOONEST AT RUT/MPV AND LATER AT MSS, WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS.
WINDS LIGHT EASTERLY.

PRECIPITATION CHARACTER BECOMES MORE INTERMITTENT/SHOWERY WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CEILING HEIGHTS TUESDAY. HOWEVER VIS MAY
BE AS LOW AS IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH MAY BE THE MOST PERSISTENT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. WINDS
LIGHT/VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KALY 090201
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
900 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM EST...RADARS INDICATED THAT BANDS OF LIGHT TO EVEN
AT TIMES MODERATE SNOW...STILL WORKING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION.
IN FACT...WHILE MOISTURE "BACKED IN" FROM THE DEPARTING POWERFUL
STORM WELL EAST OF CAPE COD...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO HELP DEVELOP THESE BANDS OF
SNOW WHICH WERE NO MOVING FROM SW TO NE (AS OPPOSED TO SE-NW WHICH
THEY WERE DOING DURING THE AFTERNOON).

FOR THIS REASON...EXTENDED THE SNOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SLOWLY
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. CALL IT PERIODS OF SNOW...REALLY
MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW...BUT OCCASIONAL SOME POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW
POSSIBLE. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET IN
MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 3-6 ACROSS LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE SNOWFALL RATES HAVE
BEEN CLOSE TO AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES...WHILE MOST OTHER PLACES WERE
HALF AN INCH OR LESS PER HOUR. THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ON WESTWARD LOOKS
TO RECEIVE AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL.

BTW...WE HAVE HAD A TWITTER REPORT OF 5 INCHES JUST ESE OF NEW MILFORD
WITH SNOW CONTINUING TO FALL. PLEASE REFER TO OUR PUBLIC STATEMENTS
FOR ALL OUR LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

SO...WE PLAN TO CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR LITCHFIELD WITH THIS UPDATE.

SOME MOHAWK HUDSON CONVERGENCE (MHC) STILL ALSO LOOKS POSSIBLE. THIS TAKES PLACE
WHEN THE WIND AT ALBANY IS FROM THE NORTH WHILE MORE OF AN NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION AT GLENS FALLS AND EITHER A NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FURTHER WEST IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THE LATTER HAS YET TO HAPPEN
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR LATER TOWARD MIDNIGHT.


OVERNIGHT...THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
THEN END...WITH LITTLE OR OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 20 IN MOST PLACES...TEENS UP IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS NORTH AND ALBANY.

A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE COASTAL LOW
WILL TRACK FROM THE DELMARVA REGION TUESDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN HEAD OUT TO SEA. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE
WILL BE OFF AND ON SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AMOUNTS BUT WITH A LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE COLD AIR
FUNNELING ACROSS THE LAKE...EXPECT A PRETTY STRONG BAND TO SET UP
WITH A FAIRLY LONG FETCH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE SHEAR. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A PASSAGE OF MID LATITUDE TROUGH INTRODUCING
COLD AIR (BUT THE NOT THE COLDEST) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS AIR MASS
WILL COME THE USUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS POINT THE FLOW LOOKS TO
BE SHEARED FOR OPTIMAL (HEAVY) LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT WE WILL
REEVALUATE THAT THREAT AS WE LATER INTO THE WEEK.

THE REST OF THE AREA WILL DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT COLD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS
NORTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH/TEENS SOUTH.

THEN...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX...WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE
AND PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THIS WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS NANOOK AIR MASS COULD TOUCH OFF A BRIEF ROUND OF
SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE
WOULD LIGHT...SNOW SQUALLS COULD PROBLEMS FOR TRAVELS. SPECIFIC TIMING FOR
ANY SQUALLS IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL PINPOINT TIMES
AS WE NEAR FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE BITTERLY...IF NOT BRUTALLY COLD. A STIFF NORTHWEST OR NORTH
WIND WILL ADD TO THE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACK PARK. THE WIND WILL LIKELY DRIVE WIND CHILLS INTO
THE ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING THRESHOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
ELEVATED AREAS...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS IF THAT WASN`T ENOUGH...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL
OCEAN STORM TRACKING WELL OFFSHORE BUT STILL POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR SHOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...JUST
WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD WITH LOWS LOOK FOR REACH ZERO ABOUT
5 BELOW CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD....-5 TO -15 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME BREEZE STIRRING SO AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD VERY WELL BE PUSHED INTO THE ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN BITTERLY COLD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 10-15 IN THE
VALLEY...0 TO 10 ABOVE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT LEAST IT LOOKS PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL BREEZY.

BY MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE TO OUR EAST...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW A MODERATION IN THE BITTER COLD AIR TO BEGIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAFS
DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. THIS SNOW SHOULD END BY 03Z AT KPOU/04Z
KPSF AND AROUND 06Z KALB AND KGFL.

VISIBILITIES LOOK TO MAINLY BE 1-2 MILES (AGAIN LIGHT SNOW)
BEFORE IMPROVING TO OVER 6 MILES OVERNIGHT. CIGS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO LOWER...BUT SHOULD AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY DIP INTO
THE IFR RANGE THIS EVENING.

AFTER THE SNOW LEAVES...WE SHOULD BE LEFT WITH MVFR CIGS (LOW MVFR
WITH EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED AT KPSF).

THESE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST AT ALL THE TAFS (OTHER THAN KALB)
THROUGH TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH WE DO RAISE THEM TO 4000 FEET AGL AT
KALB.

THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT KPSF AND KGFL 5-10KTS TONIGHT
     BUT MORE NORTHERLY AT KALB AND KGFL. THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING A LITTLE MORE SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 090056
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
756 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 756 PM EST MONDAY...AGAIN JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE AREA AS VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTENING RATHER QUICKLY AND LIGHT SNOW IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT. SO IN THIS CASE WE ARE
INCREASING DEW POINTS NOW THAT LIGHT SNOW IS DEVELOPING AND
SPREADING FROM EAST TO WEST. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING AT MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT PICKING UP AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW BY THE
TUESDAY MORNING WORK COMMUTE. THUS REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT AREA SEEMS TO BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE TO -14C NORTHEAST KINGDOM...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE MID 20S...WHILE
POTSDAM/CANTON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 30S.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOPING
COLD POOL ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25. THIS
SUPPORTS ONLY LIGHT QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN FLUFF
FACTOR...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND 12Z WEDS...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS VALLEYS TO LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDS...BUT SLOWLY FALL BY
WEDS NIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST SURFACE
TO 850MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.

MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY VFR, EVENTUALLY DETERIORATING
TO MIX OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS
FROM THE EAST, BUILDING BACK WESTWARD. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR WITH INTERVALS IFR IN LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
TUESDAY.

VERY DRY AIR HAS KEPT LIGHT SNOW FROM FALLING DESPITE RADAR
PRESENTATION ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. RECENT INDICATIONS PER VSF METAR
INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVELS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE SATURATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT, WHICH SHOULD ALSO BE THE TREND INTO THE EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE TAFS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO DROP FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST, SOONEST AT RUT/MPV AND LATER AT MSS, WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS.
WINDS LIGHT EASTERLY.

PRECIPITATION CHARACTER BECOMES MORE INTERMITTENT/SHOWERY WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CEILING HEIGHTS TUESDAY. HOWEVER VIS MAY
BE AS LOW AS IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH MAY BE THE MOST PERSISTENT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. WINDS
LIGHT/VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 090056
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
756 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 756 PM EST MONDAY...AGAIN JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE AREA AS VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTENING RATHER QUICKLY AND LIGHT SNOW IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT. SO IN THIS CASE WE ARE
INCREASING DEW POINTS NOW THAT LIGHT SNOW IS DEVELOPING AND
SPREADING FROM EAST TO WEST. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING AT MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT PICKING UP AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW BY THE
TUESDAY MORNING WORK COMMUTE. THUS REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT AREA SEEMS TO BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE TO -14C NORTHEAST KINGDOM...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE MID 20S...WHILE
POTSDAM/CANTON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 30S.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOPING
COLD POOL ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25. THIS
SUPPORTS ONLY LIGHT QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN FLUFF
FACTOR...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND 12Z WEDS...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS VALLEYS TO LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDS...BUT SLOWLY FALL BY
WEDS NIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST SURFACE
TO 850MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.

MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY VFR, EVENTUALLY DETERIORATING
TO MIX OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS
FROM THE EAST, BUILDING BACK WESTWARD. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR WITH INTERVALS IFR IN LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
TUESDAY.

VERY DRY AIR HAS KEPT LIGHT SNOW FROM FALLING DESPITE RADAR
PRESENTATION ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. RECENT INDICATIONS PER VSF METAR
INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVELS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE SATURATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT, WHICH SHOULD ALSO BE THE TREND INTO THE EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE TAFS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO DROP FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST, SOONEST AT RUT/MPV AND LATER AT MSS, WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS.
WINDS LIGHT EASTERLY.

PRECIPITATION CHARACTER BECOMES MORE INTERMITTENT/SHOWERY WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CEILING HEIGHTS TUESDAY. HOWEVER VIS MAY
BE AS LOW AS IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH MAY BE THE MOST PERSISTENT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. WINDS
LIGHT/VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 090056
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
756 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 756 PM EST MONDAY...AGAIN JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE AREA AS VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTENING RATHER QUICKLY AND LIGHT SNOW IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT. SO IN THIS CASE WE ARE
INCREASING DEW POINTS NOW THAT LIGHT SNOW IS DEVELOPING AND
SPREADING FROM EAST TO WEST. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING AT MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT PICKING UP AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW BY THE
TUESDAY MORNING WORK COMMUTE. THUS REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT AREA SEEMS TO BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE TO -14C NORTHEAST KINGDOM...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE MID 20S...WHILE
POTSDAM/CANTON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 30S.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOPING
COLD POOL ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25. THIS
SUPPORTS ONLY LIGHT QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN FLUFF
FACTOR...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND 12Z WEDS...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS VALLEYS TO LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDS...BUT SLOWLY FALL BY
WEDS NIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST SURFACE
TO 850MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.

MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY VFR, EVENTUALLY DETERIORATING
TO MIX OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS
FROM THE EAST, BUILDING BACK WESTWARD. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR WITH INTERVALS IFR IN LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
TUESDAY.

VERY DRY AIR HAS KEPT LIGHT SNOW FROM FALLING DESPITE RADAR
PRESENTATION ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. RECENT INDICATIONS PER VSF METAR
INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVELS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE SATURATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT, WHICH SHOULD ALSO BE THE TREND INTO THE EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE TAFS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO DROP FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST, SOONEST AT RUT/MPV AND LATER AT MSS, WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS.
WINDS LIGHT EASTERLY.

PRECIPITATION CHARACTER BECOMES MORE INTERMITTENT/SHOWERY WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CEILING HEIGHTS TUESDAY. HOWEVER VIS MAY
BE AS LOW AS IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH MAY BE THE MOST PERSISTENT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. WINDS
LIGHT/VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBGM 090038
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
738 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NY AND PA. THE UPPER TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BRING CONTINUING CHANCES FOR ON
AND OFF SNOW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL MIDWEEK WITH
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SETTING UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FOR LATE WEEK AS MUCH COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
730 PM EST UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
THIS EVENING WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPR LVL TROUGH
STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION. EXPECT THESE SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TONIGHT... PRODUCING ABOUT AN
INCH OF SNOW OR LESS. AT FIRST EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE VERY LIGHT
AS THERE IS STILL A POCKET OF DRY AIR LINGERING THAT THE SHOWERS
WILL HAVE TO FIGHT THROUGH. BY MIDNIGHT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE LOWEST LEVELS... THUS EXPECT
SNOW TO START ACCUMULATING AT THIS TIME. TEMPS FOR THE MORNING ATTM
LOOK GOOD... STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH THE LOW 20S IN THE EAST
AND UPPR 20S IN THE WESTERN ZONE. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
THE AREA CURRENTLY REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...A
COASTAL STORM OFF TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING GREAT LAKES LOW
FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN UP
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING HOWEVER TREND
CONTINUES TO BE FOR PRECIP TO HOLD OFF LONGER...NOT UNTIL MID TO
LATE EVENING DO I EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL LOW WORKS BACK INTO EASTERN ZONES AND
THE GREAT LAKES LOW SPREADS SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN FROM THE
WEST. THE UPSHOT IS THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
TONIGHT BUT WE DON`T EXPECT ACCUMULATION TO AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE
THAN A COATING TO A HALF INCH BY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW 20S OVER EASTERN AREAS TO THE UPPER 20S WEST.

AT THIS POINT, MUCH OF TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE LARGELY PRECIP FREE AS
INITIAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WE GET TONIGHT FIZZLE OUT OVER THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING. ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND RESULT IN A NEW
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW. HOWEVER MOST OF THE PRECIP
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE JUST MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHANCES FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
TROUGH EXTENDING BACK FROM COASTAL LOW LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA. AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT...A TRACE UP TO AN INCH WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS BEING OVER NE PA. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
20S ONCE AGAIN.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION DURING WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
TROUGHINESS MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH A W/NW FLOW
SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR WEST. EXPECT
THE AREA TO SEE CONTINUING SNOW FLURRIES / SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL NY, IN PART DUE TO BROAD UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE AREA BUT ALSO ENHANCED BY THE LAKES. ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD AGAIN MOSTLY BE LIGHT AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOME BETTER ALIGNED OUT OF THE W/NW. WHILE IT`S EARLY TO GET
TOO SPECIFIC, INDICATIONS ARE FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT BANDS OVER PARTS OF ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA COUNTIES
TO SET UP FOR THURSDAY. THE SET UP FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE...AMPLE LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A DEEP MIXED LAYER TO 700 MB WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR
-16 C INITIALLY AND FALLING. OUTSIDE OF THESE COUNTIES, EXPECT
BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS COLDER AIRMASS ADVECTS IN. WEAKER LAKE EFFECT WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE CWA AS WELL...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY ZONES.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE TEENS AND ONLY RISE A FEW
DEGREES THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 PM MONDAY UPDATE...
OVERALL, A MUCH MORE WINTER-LIKE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY, COMPARED
TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN FOR MOST OF THIS SEASON SO FAR.

IN THE BIG-PICTURE, A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS
TROUGH APPEARS AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO DRIVE BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR
INTO NY AND PA FOR A FEW DAYS.

DAILY WEATHER-WISE, LINGERING LAKE SNOWS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT, AS THE WIND FLOW SHIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST, OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.

ON FRIDAY, AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH, AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL SWING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT
LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF, THEN MORE LAKE SNOWS KICK IN BEHIND IT, AS A BITTER
COLD AIR MASS COMES IN ON N-NW WINDS. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND PA`S
NORTHERN TIER SHOULD GET IN ON THE LAKE-EFFECT ACTION NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOST AREAS, AS A 320-350 WIND
FLOW IS PROGGED.

THE BIG STORY FRI-SUN WILL BE THE BITTER COLD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO IN MANY SPOTS. WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VBSYS AND/OR CIGS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. BREEZY SE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL WEAKEN AND
VEER TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUE AFTERNOON.

MAY ALSO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW MOVE IN FROM THE SW LATE
TUE AFTERNOON...IMPACTING KELM AND KAVP BEFORE 00Z WED.

.OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH SAT...AT KSYR/KRME, PERSISTENT IFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS/HEAVIER LAKE-EFFECT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE, RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MORE PERIODIC, FROM PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...KAH/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...BJT




000
FXUS61 KBGM 090038
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
738 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NY AND PA. THE UPPER TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BRING CONTINUING CHANCES FOR ON
AND OFF SNOW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL MIDWEEK WITH
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SETTING UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FOR LATE WEEK AS MUCH COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
730 PM EST UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
THIS EVENING WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPR LVL TROUGH
STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION. EXPECT THESE SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TONIGHT... PRODUCING ABOUT AN
INCH OF SNOW OR LESS. AT FIRST EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE VERY LIGHT
AS THERE IS STILL A POCKET OF DRY AIR LINGERING THAT THE SHOWERS
WILL HAVE TO FIGHT THROUGH. BY MIDNIGHT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE LOWEST LEVELS... THUS EXPECT
SNOW TO START ACCUMULATING AT THIS TIME. TEMPS FOR THE MORNING ATTM
LOOK GOOD... STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH THE LOW 20S IN THE EAST
AND UPPR 20S IN THE WESTERN ZONE. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
THE AREA CURRENTLY REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...A
COASTAL STORM OFF TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING GREAT LAKES LOW
FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN UP
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING HOWEVER TREND
CONTINUES TO BE FOR PRECIP TO HOLD OFF LONGER...NOT UNTIL MID TO
LATE EVENING DO I EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL LOW WORKS BACK INTO EASTERN ZONES AND
THE GREAT LAKES LOW SPREADS SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN FROM THE
WEST. THE UPSHOT IS THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
TONIGHT BUT WE DON`T EXPECT ACCUMULATION TO AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE
THAN A COATING TO A HALF INCH BY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW 20S OVER EASTERN AREAS TO THE UPPER 20S WEST.

AT THIS POINT, MUCH OF TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE LARGELY PRECIP FREE AS
INITIAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WE GET TONIGHT FIZZLE OUT OVER THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING. ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND RESULT IN A NEW
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW. HOWEVER MOST OF THE PRECIP
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE JUST MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHANCES FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
TROUGH EXTENDING BACK FROM COASTAL LOW LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA. AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT...A TRACE UP TO AN INCH WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS BEING OVER NE PA. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
20S ONCE AGAIN.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION DURING WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
TROUGHINESS MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH A W/NW FLOW
SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR WEST. EXPECT
THE AREA TO SEE CONTINUING SNOW FLURRIES / SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL NY, IN PART DUE TO BROAD UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE AREA BUT ALSO ENHANCED BY THE LAKES. ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD AGAIN MOSTLY BE LIGHT AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOME BETTER ALIGNED OUT OF THE W/NW. WHILE IT`S EARLY TO GET
TOO SPECIFIC, INDICATIONS ARE FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT BANDS OVER PARTS OF ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA COUNTIES
TO SET UP FOR THURSDAY. THE SET UP FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE...AMPLE LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A DEEP MIXED LAYER TO 700 MB WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR
-16 C INITIALLY AND FALLING. OUTSIDE OF THESE COUNTIES, EXPECT
BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS COLDER AIRMASS ADVECTS IN. WEAKER LAKE EFFECT WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE CWA AS WELL...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY ZONES.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE TEENS AND ONLY RISE A FEW
DEGREES THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 PM MONDAY UPDATE...
OVERALL, A MUCH MORE WINTER-LIKE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY, COMPARED
TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN FOR MOST OF THIS SEASON SO FAR.

IN THE BIG-PICTURE, A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS
TROUGH APPEARS AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO DRIVE BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR
INTO NY AND PA FOR A FEW DAYS.

DAILY WEATHER-WISE, LINGERING LAKE SNOWS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT, AS THE WIND FLOW SHIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST, OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.

ON FRIDAY, AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH, AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL SWING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT
LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF, THEN MORE LAKE SNOWS KICK IN BEHIND IT, AS A BITTER
COLD AIR MASS COMES IN ON N-NW WINDS. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND PA`S
NORTHERN TIER SHOULD GET IN ON THE LAKE-EFFECT ACTION NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOST AREAS, AS A 320-350 WIND
FLOW IS PROGGED.

THE BIG STORY FRI-SUN WILL BE THE BITTER COLD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO IN MANY SPOTS. WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VBSYS AND/OR CIGS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. BREEZY SE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL WEAKEN AND
VEER TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUE AFTERNOON.

MAY ALSO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW MOVE IN FROM THE SW LATE
TUE AFTERNOON...IMPACTING KELM AND KAVP BEFORE 00Z WED.

.OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH SAT...AT KSYR/KRME, PERSISTENT IFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS/HEAVIER LAKE-EFFECT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE, RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MORE PERIODIC, FROM PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...KAH/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...BJT




000
FXUS61 KALY 082341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 640 PM...LIGHT SNOW HAS WORKED INTO THE CAPITAL REGION
AND MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IN FACT...RADARS INDICTED SNOW
HAS REACHED BACK INTO SCHOHARIE COUNTY ALTHOUGH NO REPORTS OF
SNOW THERE YET. A POWERFUL STORM WAS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF
CAPE COD MOVING IN A NORTHEASTERLY  DIRECTION.

UPDATED THE POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

EXPECT LIGHT SNOW MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO END SOUTH OF
ALBANY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT OR
LATER ALBANY NORTHWARD.

IN ADDITION TO UPWARD MOTION FROM A POWERFUL STORM WELL EAST OF
CAPE COD...THERE WAS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IN COMING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WORKING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. ALSO...SOME MOHAWK
HUDSON CONVERGENCE (MHC) LOOKS POSSIBLE. THIS TAKES PLACE WHEN THE
WIND AT ALBANY IS FROM THE NORTH WHILE MORE OF AN NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION AT GLENS FALLS AND EITHER A NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FURTHER WEST IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THE LATTER HAS YET TO HAPPEN
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR LATER THIS EVENING.

EITHER WAY...THIS IS A NUISANCE SNOW EVENT FOR MOST OUR REGION (1-3
INCHES). HOWEVER...IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WITH A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE WE ARE LOOKING AT 3-6 INCHES SO WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN THAT COUNTY.

OVERNIGHT...THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES AND END WITH LITTLE
OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 20 IN MOST PLACES...TEENS UP IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS NORTH AND ALBANY.

A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE COASTAL LOW
WILL TRACK FROM THE DELMARVA REGION TUESDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN HEAD OUT TO SEA. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE
WILL BE OFF AND ON SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AMOUNTS BUT WITH A LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE COLD AIR
FUNNELING ACROSS THE LAKE...EXPECT A PRETTY STRONG BAND TO SET UP
WITH A FAIRLY LONG FETCH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE SHEAR. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A PASSAGE OF MID LATITUDE TROUGH INTRODUCING
COLD AIR (BUT THE NOT THE COLDEST) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS AIR MASS
WILL COME THE USUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS POINT THE FLOW LOOKS TO
BE SHEARED FOR OPTIMAL (HEAVY) LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT WE WILL
REEVALUATE THAT THREAT AS WE LATER INTO THE WEEK.

THE REST OF THE AREA WILL DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT COLD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS
NORTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH/TEENS SOUTH.

THEN...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX...WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE
AND PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THIS WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS NANOOK AIR MASS COULD TOUCH OFF A BRIEF ROUND OF
SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE
WOULD LIGHT...SNOW SQUALLS COULD PROBLEMS FOR TRAVELS. SPECIFIC TIMING FOR
ANY SQUALLS IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL PINPOINT TIMES
AS WE NEAR FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE BITTERLY...IF NOT BRUTALLY COLD. A STIFF NORTHWEST OR NORTH
WIND WILL ADD TO THE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACK PARK. THE WIND WILL LIKELY DRIVE WIND CHILLS INTO
THE ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING THRESHOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
ELEVATED AREAS...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS IF THAT WASN`T ENOUGH...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL
OCEAN STORM TRACKING WELL OFFSHORE BUT STILL POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR SHOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...JUST
WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD WITH LOWS LOOK FOR REACH ZERO ABOUT
5 BELOW CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD....-5 TO -15 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME BREEZE STIRRING SO AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD VERY WELL BE PUSHED INTO THE ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN BITTERLY COLD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 10-15 IN THE
VALLEY...0 TO 10 ABOVE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT LEAST IT LOOKS PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL BREEZY.

BY MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE TO OUR EAST...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW A MODERATION IN THE BITTER COLD AIR TO BEGIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAFS
DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. THIS SNOW SHOULD END BY 03Z AT KPOU/04Z
KPSF AND AROUND 06Z KALB AND KGFL.

VISIBILITIES LOOK TO MAINLY BE 1-2 MILES (AGAIN LIGHT SNOW)
BEFORE IMPROVING TO OVER 6 MILES OVERNIGHT. CIGS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO LOWER...BUT SHOULD AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY DIP INTO
THE IFR RANGE THIS EVENING.

AFTER THE SNOW LEAVES...WE SHOULD BE LEFT WITH MVFR CIGS (LOW MVFR
WITH EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED AT KPSF).

THESE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST AT ALL THE TAFS (OTHER THAN KALB)
THROUGH TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH WE DO RAISE THEM TO 4000 FEET AGL AT
KALB.

THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT KPSF AND KGFL 5-10KTS TONIGHT
...BUT MORE NORTHERLY AT KALB AND KGFL. THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING A LITTLE MORE SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 082341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 640 PM...LIGHT SNOW HAS WORKED INTO THE CAPITAL REGION
AND MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IN FACT...RADARS INDICTED SNOW
HAS REACHED BACK INTO SCHOHARIE COUNTY ALTHOUGH NO REPORTS OF
SNOW THERE YET. A POWERFUL STORM WAS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF
CAPE COD MOVING IN A NORTHEASTERLY  DIRECTION.

UPDATED THE POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

EXPECT LIGHT SNOW MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO END SOUTH OF
ALBANY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT OR
LATER ALBANY NORTHWARD.

IN ADDITION TO UPWARD MOTION FROM A POWERFUL STORM WELL EAST OF
CAPE COD...THERE WAS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IN COMING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WORKING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. ALSO...SOME MOHAWK
HUDSON CONVERGENCE (MHC) LOOKS POSSIBLE. THIS TAKES PLACE WHEN THE
WIND AT ALBANY IS FROM THE NORTH WHILE MORE OF AN NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION AT GLENS FALLS AND EITHER A NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FURTHER WEST IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THE LATTER HAS YET TO HAPPEN
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR LATER THIS EVENING.

EITHER WAY...THIS IS A NUISANCE SNOW EVENT FOR MOST OUR REGION (1-3
INCHES). HOWEVER...IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WITH A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE WE ARE LOOKING AT 3-6 INCHES SO WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN THAT COUNTY.

OVERNIGHT...THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES AND END WITH LITTLE
OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 20 IN MOST PLACES...TEENS UP IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS NORTH AND ALBANY.

A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE COASTAL LOW
WILL TRACK FROM THE DELMARVA REGION TUESDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN HEAD OUT TO SEA. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE
WILL BE OFF AND ON SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AMOUNTS BUT WITH A LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE COLD AIR
FUNNELING ACROSS THE LAKE...EXPECT A PRETTY STRONG BAND TO SET UP
WITH A FAIRLY LONG FETCH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE SHEAR. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A PASSAGE OF MID LATITUDE TROUGH INTRODUCING
COLD AIR (BUT THE NOT THE COLDEST) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS AIR MASS
WILL COME THE USUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS POINT THE FLOW LOOKS TO
BE SHEARED FOR OPTIMAL (HEAVY) LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT WE WILL
REEVALUATE THAT THREAT AS WE LATER INTO THE WEEK.

THE REST OF THE AREA WILL DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT COLD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS
NORTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH/TEENS SOUTH.

THEN...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX...WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE
AND PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THIS WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS NANOOK AIR MASS COULD TOUCH OFF A BRIEF ROUND OF
SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE
WOULD LIGHT...SNOW SQUALLS COULD PROBLEMS FOR TRAVELS. SPECIFIC TIMING FOR
ANY SQUALLS IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL PINPOINT TIMES
AS WE NEAR FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE BITTERLY...IF NOT BRUTALLY COLD. A STIFF NORTHWEST OR NORTH
WIND WILL ADD TO THE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACK PARK. THE WIND WILL LIKELY DRIVE WIND CHILLS INTO
THE ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING THRESHOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
ELEVATED AREAS...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS IF THAT WASN`T ENOUGH...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL
OCEAN STORM TRACKING WELL OFFSHORE BUT STILL POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR SHOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...JUST
WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD WITH LOWS LOOK FOR REACH ZERO ABOUT
5 BELOW CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD....-5 TO -15 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME BREEZE STIRRING SO AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD VERY WELL BE PUSHED INTO THE ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN BITTERLY COLD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 10-15 IN THE
VALLEY...0 TO 10 ABOVE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT LEAST IT LOOKS PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL BREEZY.

BY MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE TO OUR EAST...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW A MODERATION IN THE BITTER COLD AIR TO BEGIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAFS
DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. THIS SNOW SHOULD END BY 03Z AT KPOU/04Z
KPSF AND AROUND 06Z KALB AND KGFL.

VISIBILITIES LOOK TO MAINLY BE 1-2 MILES (AGAIN LIGHT SNOW)
BEFORE IMPROVING TO OVER 6 MILES OVERNIGHT. CIGS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO LOWER...BUT SHOULD AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY DIP INTO
THE IFR RANGE THIS EVENING.

AFTER THE SNOW LEAVES...WE SHOULD BE LEFT WITH MVFR CIGS (LOW MVFR
WITH EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED AT KPSF).

THESE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST AT ALL THE TAFS (OTHER THAN KALB)
THROUGH TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH WE DO RAISE THEM TO 4000 FEET AGL AT
KALB.

THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT KPSF AND KGFL 5-10KTS TONIGHT
...BUT MORE NORTHERLY AT KALB AND KGFL. THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING A LITTLE MORE SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBGM 082338 AAA
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
638 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NY AND PA. THE UPPER TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BRING CONTINUING CHANCES FOR ON
AND OFF SNOW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL MIDWEEK WITH
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SETTING UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FOR LATE WEEK AS MUCH COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AREA CURRENTLY REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...A
COASTAL STORM OFF TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING GREAT LAKES LOW
FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN UP
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING HOWEVER TREND
CONTINUES TO BE FOR PRECIP TO HOLD OFF LONGER...NOT UNTIL MID TO
LATE EVENING DO I EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL LOW WORKS BACK INTO EASTERN ZONES AND
THE GREAT LAKES LOW SPREADS SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN FROM THE
WEST. THE UPSHOT IS THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
TONIGHT BUT WE DON`T EXPECT ACCUMULATION TO AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE
THAN A COATING TO A HALF INCH BY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW 20S OVER EASTERN AREAS TO THE UPPER 20S WEST.

AT THIS POINT, MUCH OF TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE LARGELY PRECIP FREE AS
INITIAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WE GET TONIGHT FIZZLE OUT OVER THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING. ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND RESULT IN A NEW
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW. HOWEVER MOST OF THE PRECIP
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE JUST MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHANCES FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
TROUGH EXTENDING BACK FROM COASTAL LOW LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA. AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT...A TRACE UP TO AN INCH WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS BEING OVER NE PA. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
20S ONCE AGAIN.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION DURING WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
TROUGHINESS MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH A W/NW FLOW
SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR WEST. EXPECT
THE AREA TO SEE CONTINUING SNOW FLURRIES / SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL NY, IN PART DUE TO BROAD UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE AREA BUT ALSO ENHANCED BY THE LAKES. ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD AGAIN MOSTLY BE LIGHT AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOME BETTER ALIGNED OUT OF THE W/NW. WHILE IT`S EARLY TO GET
TOO SPECIFIC, INDICATIONS ARE FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT BANDS OVER PARTS OF ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA COUNTIES
TO SET UP FOR THURSDAY. THE SET UP FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE...AMPLE LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A DEEP MIXED LAYER TO 700 MB WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR
-16 C INITIALLY AND FALLING. OUTSIDE OF THESE COUNTIES, EXPECT
BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS COLDER AIRMASS ADVECTS IN. WEAKER LAKE EFFECT WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE CWA AS WELL...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY ZONES.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE TEENS AND ONLY RISE A FEW
DEGREES THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 PM MONDAY UPDATE...
OVERALL, A MUCH MORE WINTER-LIKE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY, COMPARED
TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN FOR MOST OF THIS SEASON SO FAR.

IN THE BIG-PICTURE, A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS
TROUGH APPEARS AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO DRIVE BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR
INTO NY AND PA FOR A FEW DAYS.

DAILY WEATHER-WISE, LINGERING LAKE SNOWS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT, AS THE WIND FLOW SHIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST, OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.

ON FRIDAY, AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH, AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL SWING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT
LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF, THEN MORE LAKE SNOWS KICK IN BEHIND IT, AS A BITTER
COLD AIR MASS COMES IN ON N-NW WINDS. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND PA`S
NORTHERN TIER SHOULD GET IN ON THE LAKE-EFFECT ACTION NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOST AREAS, AS A 320-350 WIND
FLOW IS PROGGED.

THE BIG STORY FRI-SUN WILL BE THE BITTER COLD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO IN MANY SPOTS. WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VBSYS AND/OR CIGS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. BREEZY SE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL WEAKEN AND
VEER TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUE AFTERNOON.

MAY ALSO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW MOVE IN FROM THE SW LATE
TUE AFTERNOON...IMPACTING KELM AND KAVP BEFORE 00Z WED.

.OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH SAT...AT KSYR/KRME, PERSISTENT IFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS/HEAVIER LAKE-EFFECT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE, RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MORE PERIODIC, FROM PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...BJT/MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBGM 082338 AAA
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
638 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NY AND PA. THE UPPER TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BRING CONTINUING CHANCES FOR ON
AND OFF SNOW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL MIDWEEK WITH
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SETTING UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FOR LATE WEEK AS MUCH COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AREA CURRENTLY REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...A
COASTAL STORM OFF TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING GREAT LAKES LOW
FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN UP
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING HOWEVER TREND
CONTINUES TO BE FOR PRECIP TO HOLD OFF LONGER...NOT UNTIL MID TO
LATE EVENING DO I EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL LOW WORKS BACK INTO EASTERN ZONES AND
THE GREAT LAKES LOW SPREADS SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN FROM THE
WEST. THE UPSHOT IS THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
TONIGHT BUT WE DON`T EXPECT ACCUMULATION TO AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE
THAN A COATING TO A HALF INCH BY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW 20S OVER EASTERN AREAS TO THE UPPER 20S WEST.

AT THIS POINT, MUCH OF TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE LARGELY PRECIP FREE AS
INITIAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WE GET TONIGHT FIZZLE OUT OVER THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING. ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND RESULT IN A NEW
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW. HOWEVER MOST OF THE PRECIP
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE JUST MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHANCES FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
TROUGH EXTENDING BACK FROM COASTAL LOW LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA. AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT...A TRACE UP TO AN INCH WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS BEING OVER NE PA. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
20S ONCE AGAIN.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION DURING WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
TROUGHINESS MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH A W/NW FLOW
SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR WEST. EXPECT
THE AREA TO SEE CONTINUING SNOW FLURRIES / SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL NY, IN PART DUE TO BROAD UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE AREA BUT ALSO ENHANCED BY THE LAKES. ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD AGAIN MOSTLY BE LIGHT AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOME BETTER ALIGNED OUT OF THE W/NW. WHILE IT`S EARLY TO GET
TOO SPECIFIC, INDICATIONS ARE FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT BANDS OVER PARTS OF ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA COUNTIES
TO SET UP FOR THURSDAY. THE SET UP FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE...AMPLE LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A DEEP MIXED LAYER TO 700 MB WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR
-16 C INITIALLY AND FALLING. OUTSIDE OF THESE COUNTIES, EXPECT
BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS COLDER AIRMASS ADVECTS IN. WEAKER LAKE EFFECT WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE CWA AS WELL...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY ZONES.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE TEENS AND ONLY RISE A FEW
DEGREES THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 PM MONDAY UPDATE...
OVERALL, A MUCH MORE WINTER-LIKE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY, COMPARED
TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN FOR MOST OF THIS SEASON SO FAR.

IN THE BIG-PICTURE, A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS
TROUGH APPEARS AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO DRIVE BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR
INTO NY AND PA FOR A FEW DAYS.

DAILY WEATHER-WISE, LINGERING LAKE SNOWS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT, AS THE WIND FLOW SHIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST, OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.

ON FRIDAY, AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH, AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL SWING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT
LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF, THEN MORE LAKE SNOWS KICK IN BEHIND IT, AS A BITTER
COLD AIR MASS COMES IN ON N-NW WINDS. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND PA`S
NORTHERN TIER SHOULD GET IN ON THE LAKE-EFFECT ACTION NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOST AREAS, AS A 320-350 WIND
FLOW IS PROGGED.

THE BIG STORY FRI-SUN WILL BE THE BITTER COLD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO IN MANY SPOTS. WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VBSYS AND/OR CIGS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. BREEZY SE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL WEAKEN AND
VEER TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUE AFTERNOON.

MAY ALSO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW MOVE IN FROM THE SW LATE
TUE AFTERNOON...IMPACTING KELM AND KAVP BEFORE 00Z WED.

.OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH SAT...AT KSYR/KRME, PERSISTENT IFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS/HEAVIER LAKE-EFFECT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE, RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MORE PERIODIC, FROM PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...BJT/MLJ



000
FXUS61 KBGM 082338 AAA
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
638 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NY AND PA. THE UPPER TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BRING CONTINUING CHANCES FOR ON
AND OFF SNOW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL MIDWEEK WITH
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SETTING UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FOR LATE WEEK AS MUCH COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AREA CURRENTLY REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...A
COASTAL STORM OFF TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING GREAT LAKES LOW
FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN UP
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING HOWEVER TREND
CONTINUES TO BE FOR PRECIP TO HOLD OFF LONGER...NOT UNTIL MID TO
LATE EVENING DO I EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL LOW WORKS BACK INTO EASTERN ZONES AND
THE GREAT LAKES LOW SPREADS SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN FROM THE
WEST. THE UPSHOT IS THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
TONIGHT BUT WE DON`T EXPECT ACCUMULATION TO AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE
THAN A COATING TO A HALF INCH BY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW 20S OVER EASTERN AREAS TO THE UPPER 20S WEST.

AT THIS POINT, MUCH OF TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE LARGELY PRECIP FREE AS
INITIAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WE GET TONIGHT FIZZLE OUT OVER THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING. ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND RESULT IN A NEW
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW. HOWEVER MOST OF THE PRECIP
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE JUST MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHANCES FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
TROUGH EXTENDING BACK FROM COASTAL LOW LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA. AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT...A TRACE UP TO AN INCH WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS BEING OVER NE PA. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
20S ONCE AGAIN.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION DURING WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
TROUGHINESS MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH A W/NW FLOW
SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR WEST. EXPECT
THE AREA TO SEE CONTINUING SNOW FLURRIES / SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL NY, IN PART DUE TO BROAD UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE AREA BUT ALSO ENHANCED BY THE LAKES. ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD AGAIN MOSTLY BE LIGHT AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOME BETTER ALIGNED OUT OF THE W/NW. WHILE IT`S EARLY TO GET
TOO SPECIFIC, INDICATIONS ARE FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT BANDS OVER PARTS OF ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA COUNTIES
TO SET UP FOR THURSDAY. THE SET UP FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE...AMPLE LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A DEEP MIXED LAYER TO 700 MB WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR
-16 C INITIALLY AND FALLING. OUTSIDE OF THESE COUNTIES, EXPECT
BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS COLDER AIRMASS ADVECTS IN. WEAKER LAKE EFFECT WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE CWA AS WELL...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY ZONES.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE TEENS AND ONLY RISE A FEW
DEGREES THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 PM MONDAY UPDATE...
OVERALL, A MUCH MORE WINTER-LIKE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY, COMPARED
TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN FOR MOST OF THIS SEASON SO FAR.

IN THE BIG-PICTURE, A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS
TROUGH APPEARS AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO DRIVE BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR
INTO NY AND PA FOR A FEW DAYS.

DAILY WEATHER-WISE, LINGERING LAKE SNOWS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT, AS THE WIND FLOW SHIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST, OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.

ON FRIDAY, AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH, AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL SWING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT
LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF, THEN MORE LAKE SNOWS KICK IN BEHIND IT, AS A BITTER
COLD AIR MASS COMES IN ON N-NW WINDS. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND PA`S
NORTHERN TIER SHOULD GET IN ON THE LAKE-EFFECT ACTION NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOST AREAS, AS A 320-350 WIND
FLOW IS PROGGED.

THE BIG STORY FRI-SUN WILL BE THE BITTER COLD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO IN MANY SPOTS. WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VBSYS AND/OR CIGS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. BREEZY SE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL WEAKEN AND
VEER TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUE AFTERNOON.

MAY ALSO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW MOVE IN FROM THE SW LATE
TUE AFTERNOON...IMPACTING KELM AND KAVP BEFORE 00Z WED.

.OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH SAT...AT KSYR/KRME, PERSISTENT IFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS/HEAVIER LAKE-EFFECT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE, RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MORE PERIODIC, FROM PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...BJT/MLJ




000
FXUS61 KOKX 082330
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
630 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM TO THE EAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN SPIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY
DEPARTING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SNOW CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF WITH ONE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY CT. WITH MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER AND UP TO 4 TENTHS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CONNECTICUT...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WARNING
WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH MOIST LOW-MID LEVELS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTING
THROUGH. WENT BELOW A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR LOW TEMPS OVER MANY
EASTERN ZONES AS SNOW AND COLDER AIR FUNNELING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
RESULTED IN TEMPS RUNNING BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL
HELP ENERGIZE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
OF AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW...AND AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS NORTH...IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW FROM THIS. ALL MODELS KEEP THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST QPF JUST TO OUR SOUTH...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR ANY FURTHER NORTHWARD SHIFT TREND.

FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE
DAYTIME. HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH AND EXTRA LIFT SUPPLIED FROM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE INVERTED
TROUGH ULTIMATELY ENDS UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LONGWAVE EASTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SURGE
OF ARCTIC AIR...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...PUSHES INTO THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST AND MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH REMAINING MAINLY NORTH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WATERS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. COLD AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...PROBABLY AN INCH OR
SO...MAINLY NORTH. THE FIRST PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA MOVES
IN FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
IN.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING
AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOW
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO TRACK WEST
OF THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 15 TO AS MUCH AS 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE
AIRMASS MONDAY. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED
WITH THE ARCTIC OUT BREAK. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...

SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14


     EWR   0/1979    5
     BDR  *3/2015    5
     NYC   2/1916    7
     LGA   1/1979    8
     JFK   4/1979    6
     ISP  *7/2015    4

    * ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND
THIS EVENING WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVER CITY TERMINALS
00Z TO 04Z. FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...BUT SHOULD SETTLE AT MVFR AS THE SNOW ENDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 13 KT TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SNOW MAY OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS TUESDAY EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO IFR.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF
AT THIS TIME.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAF AT THIS TIME.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAF AT THIS TIME.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF
AT THIS TIME.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF
AT THIS TIME.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH THIS
EVENING. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORY. THERE
COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS
TIME.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OT 25 KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LOW MOVES TO SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT WHILE NEARLY
MAINTAINING THE SAME CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL STILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE LOOSE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENS SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK DURING
THE DAY. THIS TOO MOVES SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE TIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE OCEAN IN
RESPONSE TO THIS.

GALES HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE WATERS. SCA LEVEL WINDS WILL STILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE OCEAN AS WELL AS THE EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.
SCA REMAINS UP THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND DUE TO
THIS AND SOME HIGHER 5 FT SEAS FOR EXTREME EASTERN LONG ISLAND
SOUND. OTHERWISE...NON OCEAN WATERS WILL BE BELOW SCA.

THE OCEAN WILL HAVE ELEVATED SEAS MUCH ABOVE SCA FOR
TONIGHT...LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SCA LEVEL WINDS ALSO REDEVELOP ON THE OCEAN TUESDAY
BUT ARE FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW SCA WIND THRESHOLDS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. NON-OCEAN WATERS WILL STAY BELOW SCA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST WATERS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTS THURSDAY ON THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE FIRST
PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW AND AN
ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONLY A LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL FROM NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NO
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.

LITTLE PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY DUE TO TODAYS NEW MOON AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES
AFFECTING THE REGION.

STRONG OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THIS EVENING. WITH LOWER
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TONIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS...WATER LEVELS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 1/2 FT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING FOR MOST SPOTS. EXPECTATION
OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING FOR NY/NJ HARBOR...SOUTH SHORE BAY OF
NYC...AND WESTERN LI SOUND. MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTH
SHORE BAY LOCALES ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY.

FOR TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES...SPRING ASTRO TIDES WILL
PEAKING. IN ADDITION...WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE TO THE NE AS
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
LI AND NYC. THE HIGH END OF THE FORECAST RANGE COULD COME CLOSE TO
THE WATER LEVELS REACHED THIS MORNING FOR THE BAYS OF NYC AND
WESTERN LI.

THEREAFTER...MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS POSSIBLE TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
POTENTIAL GREATEST FOR SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES.

HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE A MODERATE THREAT FOR DUNE TOE
EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED POTENTIAL
FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE ISLAND. THIS IS BASED ON MODELED IMPACTS OF
GALE CENTER FROM THE USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR CTZ009.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ009-010.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ071-073-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ075-080-178-179.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ080-081-178-
     179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ074-
     080.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ074.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ079-081.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106-108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 082330
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
630 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM TO THE EAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN SPIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY
DEPARTING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SNOW CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF WITH ONE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY CT. WITH MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER AND UP TO 4 TENTHS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CONNECTICUT...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WARNING
WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH MOIST LOW-MID LEVELS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTING
THROUGH. WENT BELOW A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR LOW TEMPS OVER MANY
EASTERN ZONES AS SNOW AND COLDER AIR FUNNELING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
RESULTED IN TEMPS RUNNING BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL
HELP ENERGIZE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
OF AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW...AND AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS NORTH...IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW FROM THIS. ALL MODELS KEEP THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST QPF JUST TO OUR SOUTH...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR ANY FURTHER NORTHWARD SHIFT TREND.

FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE
DAYTIME. HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH AND EXTRA LIFT SUPPLIED FROM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE INVERTED
TROUGH ULTIMATELY ENDS UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LONGWAVE EASTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SURGE
OF ARCTIC AIR...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...PUSHES INTO THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST AND MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH REMAINING MAINLY NORTH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WATERS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. COLD AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...PROBABLY AN INCH OR
SO...MAINLY NORTH. THE FIRST PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA MOVES
IN FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
IN.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING
AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOW
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO TRACK WEST
OF THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 15 TO AS MUCH AS 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE
AIRMASS MONDAY. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED
WITH THE ARCTIC OUT BREAK. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...

SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14


     EWR   0/1979    5
     BDR  *3/2015    5
     NYC   2/1916    7
     LGA   1/1979    8
     JFK   4/1979    6
     ISP  *7/2015    4

    * ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND
THIS EVENING WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVER CITY TERMINALS
00Z TO 04Z. FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...BUT SHOULD SETTLE AT MVFR AS THE SNOW ENDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 13 KT TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SNOW MAY OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS TUESDAY EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO IFR.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF
AT THIS TIME.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAF AT THIS TIME.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAF AT THIS TIME.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF
AT THIS TIME.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF
AT THIS TIME.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH THIS
EVENING. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORY. THERE
COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS
TIME.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OT 25 KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LOW MOVES TO SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT WHILE NEARLY
MAINTAINING THE SAME CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL STILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE LOOSE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENS SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK DURING
THE DAY. THIS TOO MOVES SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE TIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE OCEAN IN
RESPONSE TO THIS.

GALES HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE WATERS. SCA LEVEL WINDS WILL STILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE OCEAN AS WELL AS THE EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.
SCA REMAINS UP THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND DUE TO
THIS AND SOME HIGHER 5 FT SEAS FOR EXTREME EASTERN LONG ISLAND
SOUND. OTHERWISE...NON OCEAN WATERS WILL BE BELOW SCA.

THE OCEAN WILL HAVE ELEVATED SEAS MUCH ABOVE SCA FOR
TONIGHT...LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SCA LEVEL WINDS ALSO REDEVELOP ON THE OCEAN TUESDAY
BUT ARE FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW SCA WIND THRESHOLDS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. NON-OCEAN WATERS WILL STAY BELOW SCA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST WATERS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTS THURSDAY ON THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE FIRST
PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW AND AN
ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONLY A LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL FROM NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NO
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.

LITTLE PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY DUE TO TODAYS NEW MOON AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES
AFFECTING THE REGION.

STRONG OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THIS EVENING. WITH LOWER
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TONIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS...WATER LEVELS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 1/2 FT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING FOR MOST SPOTS. EXPECTATION
OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING FOR NY/NJ HARBOR...SOUTH SHORE BAY OF
NYC...AND WESTERN LI SOUND. MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTH
SHORE BAY LOCALES ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY.

FOR TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES...SPRING ASTRO TIDES WILL
PEAKING. IN ADDITION...WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE TO THE NE AS
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
LI AND NYC. THE HIGH END OF THE FORECAST RANGE COULD COME CLOSE TO
THE WATER LEVELS REACHED THIS MORNING FOR THE BAYS OF NYC AND
WESTERN LI.

THEREAFTER...MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS POSSIBLE TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
POTENTIAL GREATEST FOR SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES.

HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE A MODERATE THREAT FOR DUNE TOE
EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED POTENTIAL
FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE ISLAND. THIS IS BASED ON MODELED IMPACTS OF
GALE CENTER FROM THE USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR CTZ009.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ009-010.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ071-073-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ075-080-178-179.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ080-081-178-
     179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ074-
     080.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ074.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ079-081.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106-108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 082330
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
630 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM TO THE EAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN SPIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY
DEPARTING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SNOW CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF WITH ONE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY CT. WITH MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER AND UP TO 4 TENTHS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CONNECTICUT...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WARNING
WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH MOIST LOW-MID LEVELS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTING
THROUGH. WENT BELOW A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR LOW TEMPS OVER MANY
EASTERN ZONES AS SNOW AND COLDER AIR FUNNELING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
RESULTED IN TEMPS RUNNING BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL
HELP ENERGIZE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
OF AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW...AND AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS NORTH...IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW FROM THIS. ALL MODELS KEEP THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST QPF JUST TO OUR SOUTH...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR ANY FURTHER NORTHWARD SHIFT TREND.

FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE
DAYTIME. HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH AND EXTRA LIFT SUPPLIED FROM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE INVERTED
TROUGH ULTIMATELY ENDS UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LONGWAVE EASTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SURGE
OF ARCTIC AIR...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...PUSHES INTO THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST AND MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH REMAINING MAINLY NORTH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WATERS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. COLD AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...PROBABLY AN INCH OR
SO...MAINLY NORTH. THE FIRST PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA MOVES
IN FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
IN.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING
AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOW
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO TRACK WEST
OF THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 15 TO AS MUCH AS 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE
AIRMASS MONDAY. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED
WITH THE ARCTIC OUT BREAK. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...

SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14


     EWR   0/1979    5
     BDR  *3/2015    5
     NYC   2/1916    7
     LGA   1/1979    8
     JFK   4/1979    6
     ISP  *7/2015    4

    * ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND
THIS EVENING WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVER CITY TERMINALS
00Z TO 04Z. FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...BUT SHOULD SETTLE AT MVFR AS THE SNOW ENDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 13 KT TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SNOW MAY OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS TUESDAY EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO IFR.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF
AT THIS TIME.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAF AT THIS TIME.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAF AT THIS TIME.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF
AT THIS TIME.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF
AT THIS TIME.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH THIS
EVENING. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORY. THERE
COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS
TIME.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OT 25 KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LOW MOVES TO SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT WHILE NEARLY
MAINTAINING THE SAME CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL STILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE LOOSE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENS SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK DURING
THE DAY. THIS TOO MOVES SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE TIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE OCEAN IN
RESPONSE TO THIS.

GALES HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE WATERS. SCA LEVEL WINDS WILL STILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE OCEAN AS WELL AS THE EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.
SCA REMAINS UP THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND DUE TO
THIS AND SOME HIGHER 5 FT SEAS FOR EXTREME EASTERN LONG ISLAND
SOUND. OTHERWISE...NON OCEAN WATERS WILL BE BELOW SCA.

THE OCEAN WILL HAVE ELEVATED SEAS MUCH ABOVE SCA FOR
TONIGHT...LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SCA LEVEL WINDS ALSO REDEVELOP ON THE OCEAN TUESDAY
BUT ARE FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW SCA WIND THRESHOLDS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. NON-OCEAN WATERS WILL STAY BELOW SCA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST WATERS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTS THURSDAY ON THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE FIRST
PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW AND AN
ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONLY A LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL FROM NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NO
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.

LITTLE PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY DUE TO TODAYS NEW MOON AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES
AFFECTING THE REGION.

STRONG OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THIS EVENING. WITH LOWER
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TONIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS...WATER LEVELS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 1/2 FT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING FOR MOST SPOTS. EXPECTATION
OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING FOR NY/NJ HARBOR...SOUTH SHORE BAY OF
NYC...AND WESTERN LI SOUND. MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTH
SHORE BAY LOCALES ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY.

FOR TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES...SPRING ASTRO TIDES WILL
PEAKING. IN ADDITION...WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE TO THE NE AS
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
LI AND NYC. THE HIGH END OF THE FORECAST RANGE COULD COME CLOSE TO
THE WATER LEVELS REACHED THIS MORNING FOR THE BAYS OF NYC AND
WESTERN LI.

THEREAFTER...MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS POSSIBLE TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
POTENTIAL GREATEST FOR SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES.

HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE A MODERATE THREAT FOR DUNE TOE
EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED POTENTIAL
FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE ISLAND. THIS IS BASED ON MODELED IMPACTS OF
GALE CENTER FROM THE USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR CTZ009.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ009-010.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ071-073-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ075-080-178-179.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ080-081-178-
     179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ074-
     080.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ074.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ079-081.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106-108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 082306
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
606 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 534 PM EST MONDAY...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE AREA AS VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS A
GOOD PART OF VERMONT. THIS IS HELPING TO SLOW THE ONSET OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED IN SPRINGFIELD VERMONT
NOW. ONLY TWEAKS AT THIS TIME WERE TO LOWER DEW POINTS ACROSS
VERMONT AND DELAY THE ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...STILL
LOOKING AT MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT PICKING UP AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOW BY THE TUESDAY MORNING WORK COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT AREA SEEMS TO BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE TO -14C NORTHEAST KINGDOM...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE MID 20S...WHILE
POTSDAM/CANTON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 30S.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOPING
COLD POOL ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25. THIS
SUPPORTS ONLY LIGHT QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN FLUFF
FACTOR...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND 12Z WEDS...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS VALLEYS TO LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDS...BUT SLOWLY FALL BY
WEDS NIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST SURFACE
TO 850MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.

MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY VFR, EVENTUALLY DETERIORATING
TO MIX OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISBILITY AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS FROM
THE EAST, BUILDING BACK WESTWARD. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR
WITH INTERVALS IFR IN LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY.

VERY DRY AIR HAS KEPT LIGHT SNOW FROM FALLING DESPITE RADAR
PRESENTATION ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. RECENT INDICATIONS PER VSF METAR
INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVELS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE SATURATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT, WHICH SHOULD ALSO BE THE TREND INTO THE EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE TAFS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO DROP FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST, SOONEST AT RUT/MPV AND LATER AT MSS, WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS.
WINDS LIGHT EASTERLY.

PRECIPITATION CHARACTER BECOMES MORE INTERMITTENT/SHOWERY WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CEILING HEIGHTS TUESDAY. HOWEVER VIS MAY
BE AS LOW AS IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH MAY BE THE MOST PERSISTENT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. WINDS
LIGHT/VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 082234
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
534 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 534 PM EST MONDAY...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE AREA AS VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS A
GOOD PART OF VERMONT. THIS IS HELPING TO SLOW THE ONSET OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED IN SPRINGFIELD VERMONT
NOW. ONLY TWEAKS AT THIS TIME WERE TO LOWER DEW POINTS ACROSS
VERMONT AND DELAY THE ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...STILL
LOOKING AT MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT PICKING UP AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOW BY THE TUESDAY MORNING WORK COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT AREA SEEMS TO BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE TO -14C NORTHEAST KINGDOM...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE MID 20S...WHILE
POTSDAM/CANTON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 30S.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOPING
COLD POOL ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25. THIS
SUPPORTS ONLY LIGHT QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN FLUFF
FACTOR...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND 12Z WEDS...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS VALLEYS TO LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDS...BUT SLOWLY FALL BY
WEDS NIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST SURFACE
TO 850MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.

MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z TUESDAY WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND VISIBILITIES TO IFR WITHIN A COUPLE
OF HOURS OF ONSET OF SNOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT MOST SITES
BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10
KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS AT MSS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KALY 082154
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
454 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTH AND EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS
NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION. WHILE THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
REMAINS QUITE DRY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED SOUTH OF THE FA
THIS MORNING...EXPECT THAT THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE ENOUGH SUCH
THAT ALL OF THE FA WILL SEE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL
SEE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW WITH SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS RECEIVING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE COASTAL LOW
WILL TRACK FROM THE DELMARVA REGION TUESDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN HEAD OUT TO SEA. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE
WILL BE OFF AND ON SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AMOUNTS BUT WITH A LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE COLD AIR
FUNNELING ACROSS THE LAKE...EXPECT A PRETTY STRONG BAND TO SET UP
WITH A FAIRLY LONG FETCH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE SHEAR. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A PASSAGE OF MID LATITUDE TROUGH INTRODUCING
COLD AIR (BUT THE NOT THE COLDEST) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS AIR MASS
WILL COME THE USUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS POINT THE FLOW LOOKS TO
BE SHEARED FOR OPTIMAL (HEAVY) LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT WE WILL
REEVALUATE THAT THREAT AS WE LATER INTO THE WEEK.

THE REST OF THE AREA WILL DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT COLD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS
NORTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH/TEENS SOUTH.

THEN...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX...WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE
AND PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THIS WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS NANOOK AIR MASS COULD TOUCH OFF A BRIEF ROUND OF
SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE
WOULD LIGHT...SNOW SQUALLS COULD PROBLEMS FOR TRAVELS. SPECIFIC TIMING FOR
ANY SQUALLS IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL PINPOINT TIMES
AS WE NEAR FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE BITTERLY...IF NOT BRUTALLY COLD. A STIFF NORTHWEST OR NORTH
WIND WILL ADD TO THE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKPARK. THE WIND WILL LIKELY DRIVE WIND CHILLS INTO
THE ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING THRESHOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
ELEVATED AREAS...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS IF THAT WASN`T ENOUGH...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL
OCEAN STORM TRACKING WELL OFFSHORE BUT STILL POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR SHOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...JUST
WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD WITH LOWS LOOK FOR REACH ZERO ABOUT
5 BELOW CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD....-5 TO -15 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME BREEZE STIRRING SO AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD VERY WELL BE PUSHED INTO THE ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN BITTERLY COLD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 10-15 IN THE
VALLEY...0 TO 10 ABOVE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT LEAST IT LOOKS PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL BREEZY.

BY MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE TO OUR EAST...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW A MODERATION IN THE BITTER COLD AIR TO BEGIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...


AS OF 2200Z...WE WENT AHEAD AND UPDATE ALL THE TAFS AS IT IS NOW
LOOKS CERTAIN LIGHT SNOW WILL NEVERTHELESS DROP CONDITIONS
TO AT LEAST IFR FOR AWHILE THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
EXPECT THIS LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST AT LEAST UNTIL 00Z AT
KPOU AND KPSF AND UNTIL 04Z AT KALB AND KGFL.

WE MIGHT HAVE TO EXTEND THE IFR SNOW LONGER BUT FOR NOW
THIS IS OUR BEST CONFIDENCE.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTHEAST AT KGFL AND KPSF 5-10KTS...MORE
NORTHERLY AT KPOU AND KALB.

STILL THINKING ONCE THE SNOW MOVES AWAY OVERNIGHT...WE RETURN
TO VFR WITH CLOUDS BASES WELL OVER 3000 FEET AGL.

AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...LOWER CLOUDS
SHOULD ADVECT INTO THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH KPOU-KPSF WITH
A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL PLACE A VCSH AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 082154
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
454 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTH AND EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS
NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION. WHILE THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
REMAINS QUITE DRY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED SOUTH OF THE FA
THIS MORNING...EXPECT THAT THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE ENOUGH SUCH
THAT ALL OF THE FA WILL SEE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL
SEE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW WITH SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS RECEIVING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE COASTAL LOW
WILL TRACK FROM THE DELMARVA REGION TUESDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN HEAD OUT TO SEA. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE
WILL BE OFF AND ON SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AMOUNTS BUT WITH A LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE COLD AIR
FUNNELING ACROSS THE LAKE...EXPECT A PRETTY STRONG BAND TO SET UP
WITH A FAIRLY LONG FETCH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE SHEAR. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A PASSAGE OF MID LATITUDE TROUGH INTRODUCING
COLD AIR (BUT THE NOT THE COLDEST) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS AIR MASS
WILL COME THE USUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS POINT THE FLOW LOOKS TO
BE SHEARED FOR OPTIMAL (HEAVY) LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT WE WILL
REEVALUATE THAT THREAT AS WE LATER INTO THE WEEK.

THE REST OF THE AREA WILL DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT COLD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS
NORTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH/TEENS SOUTH.

THEN...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX...WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE
AND PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THIS WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS NANOOK AIR MASS COULD TOUCH OFF A BRIEF ROUND OF
SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE
WOULD LIGHT...SNOW SQUALLS COULD PROBLEMS FOR TRAVELS. SPECIFIC TIMING FOR
ANY SQUALLS IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL PINPOINT TIMES
AS WE NEAR FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE BITTERLY...IF NOT BRUTALLY COLD. A STIFF NORTHWEST OR NORTH
WIND WILL ADD TO THE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKPARK. THE WIND WILL LIKELY DRIVE WIND CHILLS INTO
THE ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING THRESHOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
ELEVATED AREAS...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS IF THAT WASN`T ENOUGH...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL
OCEAN STORM TRACKING WELL OFFSHORE BUT STILL POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR SHOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...JUST
WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD WITH LOWS LOOK FOR REACH ZERO ABOUT
5 BELOW CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD....-5 TO -15 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME BREEZE STIRRING SO AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD VERY WELL BE PUSHED INTO THE ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN BITTERLY COLD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 10-15 IN THE
VALLEY...0 TO 10 ABOVE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT LEAST IT LOOKS PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL BREEZY.

BY MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE TO OUR EAST...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW A MODERATION IN THE BITTER COLD AIR TO BEGIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...


AS OF 2200Z...WE WENT AHEAD AND UPDATE ALL THE TAFS AS IT IS NOW
LOOKS CERTAIN LIGHT SNOW WILL NEVERTHELESS DROP CONDITIONS
TO AT LEAST IFR FOR AWHILE THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
EXPECT THIS LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST AT LEAST UNTIL 00Z AT
KPOU AND KPSF AND UNTIL 04Z AT KALB AND KGFL.

WE MIGHT HAVE TO EXTEND THE IFR SNOW LONGER BUT FOR NOW
THIS IS OUR BEST CONFIDENCE.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTHEAST AT KGFL AND KPSF 5-10KTS...MORE
NORTHERLY AT KPOU AND KALB.

STILL THINKING ONCE THE SNOW MOVES AWAY OVERNIGHT...WE RETURN
TO VFR WITH CLOUDS BASES WELL OVER 3000 FEET AGL.

AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...LOWER CLOUDS
SHOULD ADVECT INTO THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH KPOU-KPSF WITH
A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL PLACE A VCSH AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 082130
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
430 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM TO THE EAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN SPIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY
DEPARTING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SNOW CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF SW TO NE EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES. WILL ALLOW WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES EXPIRE AT 6PM AS
LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED.

LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH MOIST LOW-MID LEVELS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTING
THROUGH. WENT BELOW A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR LOW TEMPS OVER MANY EASTERN
ZONES AS SNOW AND COLDER AIR FUNNELING DOWN FROM THE NORTH RESULTED
IN TEMPS RUNNING BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL
HELP ENERGIZE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
OF AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW...AND AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS NORTH...IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW FROM THIS. ALL MODELS KEEP THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST QPF JUST TO OUR SOUTH...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR ANY FURTHER NORTHWARD SHIFT TREND.

FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE
DAYTIME. HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH AND EXTRA LIFT SUPPLIED FROM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE INVERTED
TROUGH ULTIMATELY ENDS UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LONGWAVE EASTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SURGE
OF ARCTIC AIR...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...PUSHES INTO THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST AND MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH REMAINING MAINLY NORTH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WATERS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. COLD AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...PROBABLY AN INCH OR
SO...MAINLY NORTH. THE FIRST PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA MOVES
IN FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
IN.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING
AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOW
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO TRACK WEST
OF THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 15 TO AS MUCH AS 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE
AIRMASS MONDAY. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED
WITH THE ARCTIC OUT BREAK. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...

SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14


     EWR   0/1979    5
     BDR  *3/2015    5
     NYC   2/1916    7
     LGA   1/1979    8
     JFK   4/1979    6
     ISP  *7/2015    4

    * ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS AS SEVERAL
WAVES OF SNOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO DEPART AND LOW PRES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE EAST.

THERE IS A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW EXTENDING FROM SW CT THROUGH LONG
ISLAND. VSBYS IN THAT BAND ARE LOWERED TO LESS THAN 1SM.
OTHERWISE...CONDS SLOWLY IMPROVING AT MOST TERMINALS...WITH VFR
CONDS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AT KNYC
TERMINALS.

THE NEXT BAND OF SNOW LOOKS TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...SEVERAL WAVES OF SNOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THOUGH IT WILL NOT SNOW ALL
OF THE TIME...PROLONGED SUB-VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TIME.

N WINDS 10-15 KT WILL BECOME E-NE THIS EVENING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES WITH APPROACH OF SNOW BANDS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES WITH APPROACH OF SNOW BANDS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES WITH APPROACH OF SNOW BANDS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES WITH APPROACH OF SNOW BANDS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES WITH APPROACH OF SNOW BANDS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDS IN SNOW WILL BRIEFLY LIFT TO MVFR BY
22Z. AMDS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER FOR TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OT 25 KT
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR...BUT OCNL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LOW MOVES TO SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT WHILE NEARLY
MAINTAINING THE SAME CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL STILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS INTO
EARLY EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE LOOSE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENS SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK DURING
THE DAY. THIS TOO MOVES SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE TIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE OCEAN IN
RESPONSE TO THIS.

GALES HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE WATERS EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONE
FROM MORICHES TO MONTAUK WHICH WILL LOWER BY THIS EVENING. SCA LEVEL
WINDS WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS UNTIL THIS
EVENING EXCEPT FOR WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NY HARBOR WHICH
HAVE ALREADY LOWERED BELOW SCA CRITERIA. EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND
AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND BAYS WILL STILL HAVE SCA WIND GUSTS THIS
EVENING BUT WILL BE BELOW SCA BY MIDNIGHT.

THE OCEAN WILL HAVE ELEVATED SEAS MUCH ABOVE SCA FOR
TONIGHT...LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SCA LEVEL WINDS ALSO REDEVELOP ON THE OCEAN TUESDAY
BUT ARE FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW SCA WIND THRESHOLDS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. NON-OCEAN WATERS WILL STAY BELOW SCA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST WATERS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTS THURSDAY ON THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE FIRST
PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW AND AN
ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONLY A LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL FROM NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NO
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.

LITTLE PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY DUE TO TODAYS NEW MOON AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES
AFFECTING THE REGION.

STRONG OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THIS EVENING. WITH LOWER
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TONIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS...WATER LEVELS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 1/2 FT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING FOR MOST SPOTS. EXPECTATION
OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING FOR NY/NJ HARBOR...SOUTH SHORE BAY OF
NYC...AND WESTERN LI SOUND. MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTH
SHORE BAY LOCALES ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY.

FOR TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES...SPRING ASTRO TIDES WILL
PEAKING. IN ADDITION...WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE TO THE NE AS
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
LI AND NYC. THE HIGH END OF THE FORECAST RANGE COULD COME CLOSE TO
THE WATER LEVELS REACHED THIS MORNING FOR THE BAYS OF NYC AND
WESTERN LI.

THEREAFTER...MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS POSSIBLE TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
POTENTIAL GREATEST FOR SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES.

HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE A MODERATE THREAT FOR DUNE TOE
EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED POTENTIAL
FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE ISLAND. THIS IS BASED ON MODELED IMPACTS OF
GALE CENTER FROM THE USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ007-
     008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005-
     006-009-010.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR CTZ009.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ079-
     081.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ079-081.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ074-075-080-178.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ074.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ078-
     080-177-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ071-073-078-177.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ080-081-178-
     179.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ075-080-178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ179.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ006-106-108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV




000
FXUS61 KBUF 082057
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
357 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SPREAD A LITTLE
SNOW OVER AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE FINGER LAKES. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW MAY POSSIBLY MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW ALONG WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A BLAST OF
COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL US WITH A VERY ANOMALOUS LONGWAVE RIDGE IN THE WEST
AND A DEEPENING LOW IN THE EAST. THIS PATTERN HAS ALREADY
CONTRIBUTED TO A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF
STREAM...WITH ANOTHER ONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON ITS HEALS ABOUT A
DAY LATER /TUESDAY/. MEANWHILE CLOSER TO HOME...PERSISTENT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ROUGHLY TIED TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO UNDER THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. A WEAK TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW
WILL EVENTUALLY BE WEAKLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COASTAL LOW AS
THE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS ACROSS WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS SEEN TO OUR WEST. OBSERVATIONS UNDER THIS REGION
ARE SHOWING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DEPENDENT ON MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES PEAKING THE MID AND UPPER 30S. AS THIS AREA
MOVES SLOWLY EAST...THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS
RAIN...BUT CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP A LITTLE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT TOGETHER WITH WEAK DYNAMIC COOLING. PROFILES DO
NOT SUPPORT ANY TYPE OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION...AND THAT WHICH DOES
FALL FROZEN SHOULD AMOUNT TO ONLY AN INCH OR SO WHERE IT IS STEADY
ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE.

OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
WEST TOWARD OR INTO THIS REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT BEING ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE COASTAL LOW...ONCE AGAIN EXPECT ONLY MEAGER
ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY. THE DRIEST AREA FOR THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD
SHOULD BE TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES REGION...AT LEAST THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE FINGER LAKES
REGION WITH FAR WESTERN NY ON THE DRIER AND SUBSIDENT SIDE. BUT ONCE
AGAIN...FORCING IS LIGHT AND EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...A RENEWED
CHANCE FOR SNOW MAY ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY FAR WEST. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE SLOWLY COOLING WITH
TIME...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD
EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK...WITH LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING
BACK OVER TO RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD JUST
LEAD TO WET CONDITIONS WITHOUT LASTING ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL UNFOLD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A BROAD TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A COUPLE LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVING SLOWLY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
PERSISTENT AND OCCASIONALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTS THE
ORIGINAL LOW TO TRACK FROM LAKE HURON TO WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS WILL BE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
AND 850MB TEMPS OF -8C MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. THERE ALSO COULD BE LIGHT SNOW
ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. IN EACH CASE
ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
BOTH THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO CROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL PICK UP SOME MOISTURE FROM LAKE ERIE...BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY IT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST IN A MOIST FLOW WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IN PARTICULAR (NMM/ARW) CAPTURE THIS WITH A
BURST OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...WITH LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWS CONTINUING EAST OF LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO WILL BRING A ROUND OF STEADIER SNOW EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND STEADILY
COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID TO
UPPER 20S ON THE HILLS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE INITIAL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA...HOWEVER ANOTHER ONE WILL DROP BEHIND IT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS AND USHER IN
COLDER AIR ALOFT (ABOUT -20C AT 850MB) AND ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOWS. THE BEST SETUP FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY BRING SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH AN ADDED
BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE NOTABLY
COLDER...WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST AREAS.

THIS PATTERN POSES A CHALLENGE IN TERMS OF HEADLINES. TOTAL SNOWFALL
OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2-4 INCHES IN MOST AREAS WITH JUST VERY MINOR
AMOUNTS EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD ADDING UP TO MODEST ACCUMULATIONS OVER
TIME. AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH ADDED LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. 2 DAY TOTALS MAY REACH 6-10 INCHES
ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER IF FLOW ALIGNS FOR A
LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME. AMOUNTS SE OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE. CONSIDERED AN ADVISORY (OR WATCH) FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING... BUT THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DIRECTION AND THUS THE EFFICIENCY OF UPSLOPE
FLOW. SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LAKE ENHANCEMENT TOWARDS THE END OF
THE EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO BRING HIGHER TOTALS
FROM ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY. IN ALL OF THESE CASES THERE IS
SIMPLY TOO WIDE A SPREAD IN FORECAST WIND FIELDS TO SUPPORT ANY OF
THESE HEADLINES EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY SNOWFALL WILL
REACH CRITERIA. ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WILL ALSO BE HELPFUL
IN PINNING DOWN THE EXACT LOCATION...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT
UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS WILL HEAVILY INFLUENCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A COLD WESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES EXPECTED THIS WILL
PROBABLY RESULT IN PERSISTENT BUT GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
MOSTLY EAST OF THE LAKES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT BRING BITTERLY COLD AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
12Z MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS...WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THIS WINTER
SEASON. THE 12Z GFS/GGEM/ECMWF ALL FORECAST 850MB TEMPS TO DROP TO
AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST
850MB TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF
FEBRUARY IS -28C.

TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE ZERO FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIND MAY PRODUCE
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

IN ADDITION...THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT IS
LIKELY TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE LAKES ENHANCING MOISTURE WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY BRING A BRIEF BUT HEAVY
BURST OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT. THEN BEHIND THIS IT WILL EVOLVE INTO A
MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT EVENT WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAUSING
PERSISTENT BUT GENERALLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE AIRMASS IS
COLD BUT ALSO VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS DESPITE THE
STRONG INSTABILITY.

12Z RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF START TO BREAK DOWN THIS COLD
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFER ON THE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS A
WAVE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY...WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT
A DAY SLOWER. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AT TIMES
AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NY. LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE...WITH SOME RAIN AT
FIRST. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE
FINGER LAKES REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE WEST FROM
EASTERN NY AND POSSIBLY CLIP PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP KART VFR FOR NOW.

ON TUESDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH WILL WASH OUT OVER THE
FINGER LAKES...WITH MVFR OR VFR RETURNING FOR WESTERN NY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...MVFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY
WINDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO AS THE MAIN LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. THIS WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. WINDS OVER LAKE ERIE WILL ALSO
INITIALLY BE EASTERLY...BUT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER THE
TROUGH PASSAGE TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE SW-WSW THROUGH WED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...ZAFF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 082055
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
355 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NY AND PA. THE UPPER TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BRING CONTINUING CHANCES FOR ON
AND OFF SNOW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL MIDWEEK WITH
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SETTING UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FOR LATE WEEK AS MUCH COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AREA CURRENTLY REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...A
COASTAL STORM OFF TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING GREAT LAKES LOW
FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN UP
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING HOWEVER TREND
CONTINUES TO BE FOR PRECIP TO HOLD OFF LONGER...NOT UNTIL MID TO
LATE EVENING DO I EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL LOW WORKS BACK INTO EASTERN ZONES AND
THE GREAT LAKES LOW SPREADS SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN FROM THE
WEST. THE UPSHOT IS THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
TONIGHT BUT WE DON`T EXPECT ACCUMULATION TO AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE
THAN A COATING TO A HALF INCH BY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW 20S OVER EASTERN AREAS TO THE UPPER 20S WEST.

AT THIS POINT, MUCH OF TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE LARGELY PRECIP FREE AS
INITIAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WE GET TONIGHT FIZZLE OUT OVER THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING. ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND RESULT IN A NEW
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW. HOWEVER MOST OF THE PRECIP
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE JUST MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHANCES FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
TROUGH EXTENDING BACK FROM COASTAL LOW LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA. AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT...A TRACE UP TO AN INCH WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS BEING OVER NE PA. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
20S ONCE AGAIN.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION DURING WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
TROUGHINESS MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH A W/NW FLOW
SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR WEST. EXPECT
THE AREA TO SEE CONTINUING SNOW FLURRIES / SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL NY, IN PART DUE TO BROAD UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE AREA BUT ALSO ENHANCED BY THE LAKES. ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD AGAIN MOSTLY BE LIGHT AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOME BETTER ALIGNED OUT OF THE W/NW. WHILE IT`S EARLY TO GET
TOO SPECIFIC, INDICATIONS ARE FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT BANDS OVER PARTS OF ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA COUNTIES
TO SET UP FOR THURSDAY. THE SET UP FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE...AMPLE LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A DEEP MIXED LAYER TO 700 MB WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR
-16 C INITIALLY AND FALLING. OUTSIDE OF THESE COUNTIES, EXPECT
BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS COLDER AIRMASS ADVECTS IN. WEAKER LAKE EFFECT WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE CWA AS WELL...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY ZONES.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE TEENS AND ONLY RISE A FEW
DEGREES THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 PM MONDAY UPDATE...
OVERALL, A MUCH MORE WINTER-LIKE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY, COMPARED
TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN FOR MOST OF THIS SEASON SO FAR.

IN THE BIG-PICTURE, A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS
TROUGH APPEARS AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO DRIVE BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR
INTO NY AND PA FOR A FEW DAYS.

DAILY WEATHER-WISE, LINGERING LAKE SNOWS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT, AS THE WIND FLOW SHIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST, OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.

ON FRIDAY, AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH, AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL SWING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT
LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF, THEN MORE LAKE SNOWS KICK IN BEHIND IT, AS A BITTER
COLD AIR MASS COMES IN ON N-NW WINDS. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND PA`S
NORTHERN TIER SHOULD GET IN ON THE LAKE-EFFECT ACTION NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOST AREAS, AS A 320-350 WIND
FLOW IS PROGGED.

THE BIG STORY FRI-SUN WILL BE THE BITTER COLD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO IN MANY SPOTS. WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.
&&



.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

FOR A TIME, LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, INTENSITY SHOULD BE LIGHT, AND
COVERAGE SHOULD BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. THUS, FOR NOW, WE`LL KEEP
THE EXPECTED CATEGORY AS MVFR.

OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, WILL
BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH SAT...AT KSYR/KRME, PERSISTENT IFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS/HEAVIER LAKE-EFFECT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE, RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MORE PERIODIC, FROM PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBTV 082035
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
335 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE
AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA...GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS FROM WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE. KVSF SURFACE DEWPOINT IS
CURRENTLY -13F...INDICATING THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WITH RH VALUES
IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. EXPECT VIRGA WITH INITIAL BAND LIFTING
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE DEEPENING FROM A COMBINATION
OF UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEPARTING OCEAN STORM.
THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME VERY WEAK LIFT FROM 5H VORT ROTATING
THRU OUR REGION. NAM/GFS AND LATEST RAP SHOW THE BEST COMBINATION OF
LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN
00Z AND 09Z TONIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING DRY SLOT IMPACTING OUR
SOUTHERN REGIONS BY 12Z TUESDAY. QPF FOR THIS MINIMAL EVENT WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 0.10 WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS BETWEEN SURFACE AND 850MB
NOT EXPECTING MUCH TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOWFALL WITH A VERY UNIFORMED
SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS
TO MID 20S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT AREA SEEMS TO
BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE TO -14C NORTHEAST KINGDOM...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP
IMMEDIATE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE MID 20S...WHILE
POTSDAM/CANTON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 30S.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOPING
COLD POOL ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25. THIS
SUPPORTS ONLY LIGHT QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN FLUFF
FACTOR...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND 12Z WEDS...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS VALLEYS TO LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDS...BUT SLOWLY FALL BY
WEDS NIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST SURFACE
TO 850MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.

MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z TUESDAY WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND VISIBILITIES TO IFR WITHIN A COUPLE
OF HOURS OF ONSET OF SNOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT MOST SITES
BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10
KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS AT MSS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 082035
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
335 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE
AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA...GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS FROM WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE. KVSF SURFACE DEWPOINT IS
CURRENTLY -13F...INDICATING THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WITH RH VALUES
IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. EXPECT VIRGA WITH INITIAL BAND LIFTING
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE DEEPENING FROM A COMBINATION
OF UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEPARTING OCEAN STORM.
THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME VERY WEAK LIFT FROM 5H VORT ROTATING
THRU OUR REGION. NAM/GFS AND LATEST RAP SHOW THE BEST COMBINATION OF
LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN
00Z AND 09Z TONIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING DRY SLOT IMPACTING OUR
SOUTHERN REGIONS BY 12Z TUESDAY. QPF FOR THIS MINIMAL EVENT WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 0.10 WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS BETWEEN SURFACE AND 850MB
NOT EXPECTING MUCH TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOWFALL WITH A VERY UNIFORMED
SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS
TO MID 20S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT AREA SEEMS TO
BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE TO -14C NORTHEAST KINGDOM...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP
IMMEDIATE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE MID 20S...WHILE
POTSDAM/CANTON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 30S.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOPING
COLD POOL ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25. THIS
SUPPORTS ONLY LIGHT QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN FLUFF
FACTOR...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND 12Z WEDS...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS VALLEYS TO LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDS...BUT SLOWLY FALL BY
WEDS NIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST SURFACE
TO 850MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.

MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z TUESDAY WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND VISIBILITIES TO IFR WITHIN A COUPLE
OF HOURS OF ONSET OF SNOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT MOST SITES
BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10
KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS AT MSS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KALY 082034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
334 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTH AND EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS
NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION. WHILE THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
REMAINS QUITE DRY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED SOUTH OF THE FA
THIS MORNING...EXPECT THAT THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE ENOUGH SUCH
THAT ALL OF THE FA WILL SEE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL
SEE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW WITH SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS RECEIVING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE COASTAL LOW
WILL TRACK FROM THE DELMARVA REGION TUESDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN HEAD OUT TO SEA. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE
WILL BE OFF AND ON SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AMOUNTS BUT WITH A LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE COLD AIR
FUNNELING ACROSS THE LAKE...EXPECT A PRETTY STRONG BAND TO SET UP
WITH A FAIRLY LONG FETCH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE SHEAR. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A PASSAGE OF MID LATITUDE TROUGH INTRODUCING
COLD AIR (BUT THE NOT THE COLDEST) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS AIR MASS
WILL COME THE USUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS POINT THE FLOW LOOKS TO
BE SHEARED FOR OPTIMAL (HEAVY) LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT WE WILL
REEVALUATE THAT THREAT AS WE LATER INTO THE WEEK.

THE REST OF THE AREA WILL DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT COLD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS
NORTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH/TEENS SOUTH.

THEN...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX...WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE
AND PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THIS WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS NANOOK AIR MASS COULD TOUCH OFF A BRIEF ROUND OF
SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE
WOULD LIGHT...SNOW SQUALLS COULD PROBLEMS FOR TRAVELS. SPECIFIC TIMING FOR
ANY SQUALLS IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL PINPOINT TIMES
AS WE NEAR FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE BITTERLY...IF NOT BRUTALLY COLD. A STIFF NORTHWEST OR NORTH
WIND WILL ADD TO THE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACK
PARK. THE WIND WILL LIKELY DRIVE WIND CHILLS INTO THE ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING
THRESHOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR ELEVATED AREAS...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO
SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS IF THAT WASN`T ENOUGH...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL
OCEAN STORM TRACKING WELL OFFSHORE BUT STILL POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR SHOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...JUST
WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD WITH LOWS LOOK FOR REACH ZERO ABOUT
5 BELOW CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD....-5 TO -15 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME BREEZE STIRRING SO AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD VERY WELL BE PUSHED INTO THE ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN BITTERLY COLD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 10-15 IN THE
VALLEY...0 TO 10 ABOVE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT LEAST IT LOOKS PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL BREEZY.

BY MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE TO OUR EAST...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW A MODERATION IN THE BITTER COLD AIR TO BEGIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEEMS THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER SOUTHWARD AS SEEN IN
THE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS WITH PERSISTENT DROPS SEEN THIS MORNING.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY TOO REVEALS CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW WARMING OVER
THE REGION AND 1KM 1-MIN SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AMPLE BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST OVER CENTRAL NY.  WHILE SOME LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED...IT NOW APPEARS THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION IS DIMINISHING WHICH FAVORS A MORE IMPROVE AVIATION
FORECAST.  WE WILL PLACE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SNOW THAT IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR.  A LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD PREVAIL AT 10KTS
OR LESS.

AS UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD
ADVECT INTO THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH KPOU-KPSF WITH A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL PLACE A VCSH AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBGM 082021
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
321 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NY AND PA. THE UPPER TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BRING CONTINUING CHANCES FOR ON
AND OFF SNOW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL MIDWEEK WITH
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SETTING UP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FOR LATE WEEK AS MUCH COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE NORTHEAST.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AREA CURRENTLY REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...A
COASTAL STORM OFF TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING GREAT LAKES LOW
FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN UP
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING HOWEVER TREND
CONTINUES TO BE FOR PRECIP TO HOLD OFF LONGER...NOT UNTIL MID TO
LATE EVENING DO I EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL LOW WORKS BACK INTO EASTERN ZONES AND
THE GREAT LAKES LOW SPREADS SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN FROM THE
WEST. THE UPSHOT IS THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
TONIGHT BUT WE DON`T EXPECT ACCUMULATION TO AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE
THAN A COATING TO A HALF INCH BY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW 20S OVER EASTERN AREAS TO THE UPPER 20S WEST.

AT THIS POINT, MUCH OF TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE LARGELY PRECIP FREE AS
INITIAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WE GET TONIGHT FIZZLE OUT OVER THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING. ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND RESULT IN A NEW
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW. HOWEVER MOST OF THE PRECIP
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE JUST MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE
30S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHANCES FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
TROUGH EXTENDING BACK FROM COASTAL LOW LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA. AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT...A TRACE UP TO AN INCH WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS BEING OVER NE PA. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
20S ONCE AGAIN.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION DURING WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
TROUGHINESS MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH A W/NW FLOW
SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR WEST. EXPECT
THE AREA TO SEE CONTINUING SNOW FLURRIES / SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL NY, IN PART DUE TO BROAD UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE AREA BUT ALSO ENHANCED BY THE LAKES. ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD AGAIN MOSTLY BE LIGHT AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOME BETTER ALIGNED OUT OF THE W/NW. WHILE IT`S EARLY TO GET
TOO SPECIFIC, INDICATIONS ARE FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT BANDS OVER PARTS OF ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA COUNTIES
TO SET UP FOR THURSDAY. THE SET UP FOR LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO BE
QUITE FAVORABLE...AMPLE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEEP
MIXED LAYER TO 700 MB WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -16 C INITIALLY AND
FALLING. OUTSIDE OF THESE COUNTIES, EXPECT BLUSTERY AND MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLDER AIRMASS
ADVECTS IN. WEAKER LAKE EFFECT WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
CWA AS WELL...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY ZONES. TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DROP INTO THE TEENS AND ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY DUE TO
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. &&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 PM MONDAY UPDATE...
OVERALL, A MUCH MORE WINTER-LIKE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY, COMPARED
TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN FOR MOST OF THIS SEASON SO FAR.

IN THE BIG-PICTURE, A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS
TROUGH APPEARS AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO DRIVE BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR
INTO NY AND PA FOR A FEW DAYS.

DAILY WEATHER-WISE, LINGERING LAKE SNOWS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT, AS THE WIND FLOW SHIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST, OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.

ON FRIDAY, AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH, AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL SWING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT
LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF, THEN MORE LAKE SNOWS KICK IN BEHIND IT, AS A BITTER
COLD AIR MASS COMES IN ON N-NW WINDS. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND PA`S
NORTHERN TIER SHOULD GET IN ON THE LAKE-EFFECT ACTION NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOST AREAS, AS A 320-350 WIND
FLOW IS PROGGED.

THE BIG STORY FRI-SUN WILL BE THE BITTER COLD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO IN MANY SPOTS. WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

FOR A TIME, LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, INTENSITY SHOULD BE LIGHT, AND
COVERAGE SHOULD BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. THUS, FOR NOW, WE`LL KEEP
THE EXPECTED CATEGORY AS MVFR.

OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, WILL
BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH SAT...AT KSYR/KRME, PERSISTENT IFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS/HEAVIER LAKE-EFFECT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE, RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MORE PERIODIC, FROM PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBTV 082020
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
320 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT
OBS...WHICH INCLUDED MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VT. CURRENT OBS SHOW A VERY DRY POCKET OF AIR
WITH RUTLAND AND SPRINGFIELD CURRENT DEWPOINT OF -11C...CREATING
RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS. THIS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN SOME DELAY OF THE LIGHT SNOW ARRIVING ACROSS SOUTHERN VT
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VIRGA EXPECTED INITIALLY. OTHERWISE...REST
OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE.

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AND TIMING OF LIGHT
SNOW. SATL/WATER VAPOR SHOWS MONSTER OCEAN STORM WITH EYE LIKE
FEATURE AND LIGHTNING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST...WHILE DEVELOPING TROF OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OCEAN STORM WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON
AND 2 PM SOUTHEAST VT...EXPANDING TOWARD CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 1-3 PM
AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/EASTERN DACKS BETWEEN 3-6 PM.
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL
INCHES...WHICH IS ALL COVERED WELL. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS...HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
MAINLY UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.

MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z TUESDAY WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND VISIBILITIES TO IFR WITHIN A COUPLE
OF HOURS OF ONSET OF SNOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT MOST SITES
BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10
KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS AT MSS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 082020
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
320 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT
OBS...WHICH INCLUDED MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VT. CURRENT OBS SHOW A VERY DRY POCKET OF AIR
WITH RUTLAND AND SPRINGFIELD CURRENT DEWPOINT OF -11C...CREATING
RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS. THIS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN SOME DELAY OF THE LIGHT SNOW ARRIVING ACROSS SOUTHERN VT
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VIRGA EXPECTED INITIALLY. OTHERWISE...REST
OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE.

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AND TIMING OF LIGHT
SNOW. SATL/WATER VAPOR SHOWS MONSTER OCEAN STORM WITH EYE LIKE
FEATURE AND LIGHTNING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST...WHILE DEVELOPING TROF OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OCEAN STORM WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON
AND 2 PM SOUTHEAST VT...EXPANDING TOWARD CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 1-3 PM
AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/EASTERN DACKS BETWEEN 3-6 PM.
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL
INCHES...WHICH IS ALL COVERED WELL. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS...HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
MAINLY UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.

MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z TUESDAY WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND VISIBILITIES TO IFR WITHIN A COUPLE
OF HOURS OF ONSET OF SNOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT MOST SITES
BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10
KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS AT MSS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



000
FXUS61 KBGM 081927
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
227 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SPREAD
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NY AND PA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY, AS MUCH COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1125 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED POPS DOWN FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING AS PRECIP LOOKS SLOWER TO MOVE IN BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS/GUIDANCE. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON T/TD AND
SKY COVER GRIDS.


220 AM UPDATE...
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN IS FORECAST TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE STILL ABNORMALLY WARM, WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT 40 DEGREES IN MANY LOCALES.
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
225 AM UPDATE...

AS THE GREAT LAKES CYCLONE DROPS INTO WESTERN NY AND PA, LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. WE CONTINUE TO THINK THE
SNOW WILL BE INSTABILITY-BASED, AS THE UL TROF SETS UP SHOP OVER
NY AND PA AND POURS COOLER AIR INTO THE MID AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE.

A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY
NIGHT AND LATE WEDNESDAY.

COLDER 925-850MB AIR POURS ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL.
AT THIS VERY PRELIMINARY POINT, IT APPEARS THE FLOW FAVORS A LAKE
BAND OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THEN SHIFTS THE BAND TOWARD ONONDAGA/MADISON IN THE SECOND HALF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
220 PM MONDAY UPDATE...
OVERALL, A MUCH MORE WINTER-LIKE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY, COMPARED
TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN FOR MOST OF THIS SEASON SO FAR.

IN THE BIG-PICTURE, A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS
TROUGH APPEARS AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO DRIVE BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR
INTO NY AND PA FOR A FEW DAYS.

DAILY WEATHER-WISE, LINGERING LAKE SNOWS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT, AS THE WIND FLOW SHIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST, OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.

ON FRIDAY, AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH, AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL SWING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT
LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF, THEN MORE LAKE SNOWS KICK IN BEHIND IT, AS A BITTER
COLD AIR MASS COMES IN ON N-NW WINDS. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND PA`S
NORTHERN TIER SHOULD GET IN ON THE LAKE-EFFECT ACTION NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MOST AREAS, AS A 320-350 WIND
FLOW IS PROGGED.

THE BIG STORY FRI-SUN WILL BE THE BITTER COLD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO IN MANY SPOTS. WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

FOR A TIME, LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, INTENSITY SHOULD BE LIGHT, AND
COVERAGE SHOULD BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. THUS, FOR NOW, WE`LL KEEP
THE EXPECTED CATEGORY AS MVFR.

OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, WILL
BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH SAT...AT KSYR/KRME, PERSISTENT IFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS/HEAVIER LAKE-EFFECT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE, RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MORE PERIODIC, FROM PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KOKX 081806
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
106 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND
PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN
SPIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC AIR
MASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOKS LIKE ANYWHERE WEST OF THE HUDSON...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE
CITY...WILL NOT SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SNOWFALL TODAY...SO
HAVE DROPPED ADVISORIES HERE ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALSO DOWNGRADED
WARNINGS TO ADVISORIES OVER WESTERN SUFFOLK AND NEW HAVEN
COUNTIES. WITH THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE BANDING...HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE UP WARNINGS FOR EASTERN SUFFOLK AND SE CT.

TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR EASTERN ZONES. COLD
DRY AIR IS BEING PULLED DOWN FROM THE CT VALLEY. WINDS COULD STILL
GUST CLOSE TO 35 MPH AT TIMES...CREATING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WHERE THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...BUT MORE LIKELY
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY STEADIER SNOW REMAINING SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY THIS EVENING.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS EAST...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AND BRING LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUE NIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND W FROM THIS OFFSHORE
LOW...AND COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW JUST
TO ITS NORTH. HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL SET UP
ATTM...AND BEARS WATCHING ESPECIALLY FOR NYC METRO AND LONG
ISLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PLUS LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING DRY ADIABATIC AT TIMES WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 500FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD SO ALL SNOW IS FORECAST. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL BE NEEDED FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH SUPERBLEND NUMBERS...SO
DROPPED THEM DOWN A DEGREE FOR NOW. FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
MAINLY LIGHT AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ON WED.

A FIRST WAVE OF COLDER AIR COMES IN ON THU. VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AGAIN SO ANY MOISTURE IN THE AREA SHOULD BE SQUEEZED
OUT WITH MORE LIGHT SNOW. SNOW CHANCES LESSEN ON FRI AT THIS TIME
WITH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXITING THE AREA. THE ARCTIC FRONT
LOOKS TO BE FRI NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR A FRIGID WEEKEND.
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SAT...THEN DRY ON SUN WITH A
1040S HI BUILDING IN FROM THE W.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDS ON TAP FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
24-30 HOURS AS LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
DEPART AND LOW PRES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE
EAST.

BANDS OF SNOW CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE EAST. SNOW SHOULD BE
OVER ACROSS KNYC TERMINALS AND TERMINALS WEST OF THE NY/CT BORDER
DOWN THROUGH THE QUEENS/NASSAU BORDER BY 20Z. SNOW SHOULD STAY OUT
OF KSWF/KEWR...AND ANY SNOW OVER KTEB/KHPN SHOULD BE OVER BY THEN
AS WELL.

EAST OF THAT LINE...SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT AS THE OFFSHORE LOW DEPARTS...SNOW SHOULD LIGHTEN UP.

LOOKS LIKE A DRY PERIOD FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THEREAFTER...SEVERAL WAVES
OF SNOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THOUGH IT WILL NOT SNOW ALL OF THE TIME...PROLONGED SUB-VFR CONDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TIME.

NE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDS DOWN BY 20Z. AMDS POSSIBLE FOR
TIMING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDS DOWN BY 20Z. AMDS POSSIBLE FOR
TIMING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR ANY CHANGES TO FLIGHT
CATEGORIES.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDS DOWN BY 20Z. AMDS POSSIBLE FOR
TIMING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW WINDS DOWN BY 20Z. AMDS POSSIBLE FOR
TIMING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDS IN SNOW LIFT TO MVFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON. BREAKS IN SNOW POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...BUT CONDS REMAIN
SUB-VFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OT 25 KT
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR...BUT OCNL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY.
EXPECT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS ON THE OCEAN...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND BAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ON NY HARBOR...WESTERN
LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.

A FEW GUSTS TO STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ON EASTERN OCEAN
WATERS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
ALSO...A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO GALES.

WINDS DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AS LOW PRES DEPARTS.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN HIGH...AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE SEAS TO SETTLE...AT LEAST BACK TO SUB-SCA LEVELS.

HEADLINES FOR THE GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN UNCHANGED.

SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TUE-SAT. PERIODS OF SCA LEVEL WINDS
LIKELY IN THE TUE-SAT PERIOD ELSEWHERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW TODAY...SO NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS
ANTICIPATED. MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS THEN LIKELY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE GENERALLY
LIGHT AT THIS TIME AND ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY DUE TO NEW MOON AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES AFFECTING
THE REGION.

AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE BROUGHT 2 TO 3 FT OR SURGE TO THE REGION
THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS ALONG
THE VULNERABLE SOUTH SHORE BAY AREAS OF QUEENS AND BROOKLYN AND
WESTERN LI. POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE IMPACTS ACROSS VULNERABLE
LOCALES ALONG WESTERN LI SOUND THROUGH 11AM...OTHERWISE JUST
MINOR IMPACTS FOR SOUND ADJACENT LOCALES OF SW CT...COASTAL
WESTCHESTER...AND WESTERN LI LOCALES.

LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THIS EVENING. WITH LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
TONIGHT AND LIGHTENING WINDS...WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE A BIT
LOWER...WITH MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE FLOODING FLOODING FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND/NY AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LONG ISLAND ADJACENT TO WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.

AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES...WINDS SHOULD VEER
MORE TO THE NE AS ADDITIONAL WAVE/S OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND MULTI-TIDAL
CYCLE NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL MINOR
FLOODING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING IN THE SOUTH SHORE BAY AREAS TUESDAY. MINOR TO POSSIBLY
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY AM HIGH
TIDE CYCLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AREAS.

HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL PRESENT A MODERATE TO HIGH THREAT
FOR AREAS OF DUNE TOE EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE ISLAND.
THIS IS BASED ON MODELED IMPACTS OF GALE CENTER FROM THE USGS
COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ007-
     008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005-
     006-009-010.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ079-
     081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ068-
     070-071-073-078-080-176>179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ176.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ080-081-178-
     179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ075-080-178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071-
     073-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ078-177.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV




000
FXUS61 KBUF 081754
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1254 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WHILE THESE FEATURES WILL EVENTUALLY GENERATE SOME
SNOW FOR US...IT WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE STORMS WILL MERGE INTO A COMPLEX SYSTEM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING MORE NUISANCE SNOW IN THE PROCESS. DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK...ADDITIONAL SNOW WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH COLDER AIR...INCLUDING
SOME FRIGID ARCTIC AIR FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL US WITH A VERY ANOMALOUS LONGWAVE RIDGE IN THE WEST
AND A DEEPENING LOW IN THE EAST. THIS PATTERN HAS ALREADY
CONTRIBUTED TO A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF
STREAM...WITH ANOTHER ONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON ITS HEALS ABOUT A
DAY LATER /TUESDAY/. MEANWHILE CLOSER TO HOME...PERSISTENT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ROUGHLY TIED TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. A
WEAK TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BE
WEAKLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COASTAL LOW AS THE TROUGH PIVOTS
ACROSS ACROSS WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS SEEN TO
OUR WEST. OBSERVATIONS UNDER THIS REGION ARE SHOWING A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW DEPENDENT ON MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES PEAKING
THE MID AND UPPER 30S. AS THIS AREA MOVES SLOWLY EAST...THE ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS RAIN...BUT CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AS TEMPERATURES DROP A LITTLE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT TOGETHER WITH
WEAK DYNAMIC COOLING. PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT ANY TYPE OF FREEZING
PRECIPITATION...AND THAT WHICH DOES FALL FROZEN SHOULD AMOUNT TO
ONLY AN INCH OR SO ONCE IT IS STEADY ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE.

OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
WEST TOWARD OR INTO THIS REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT BEING ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE COASTAL LOW...ONCE AGAIN EXPECT ONLY MEAGER
ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY. THE DRIEST AREA FOR THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD
SHOULD BE TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES REGION...AT LEAST THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION
WITH FAR WESTERN NY ON THE DRIER AND SUBSIDENT SIDE. BUT ONCE
AGAIN...FORCING IS LIGHT AND EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE SLOWLY COOLING WITH
TIME...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD
EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK...WITH LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING
BACK OVER TO RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD JUST
LEAD TO WET CONDITIONS WITHOUT LASTING ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL UNFOLD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A BROAD TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH NUMEROUS LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVING SLOWLY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. EACH ONE OF THESE
WEAK WAVES WILL PERIODICALLY BRING WEAK ASCENT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE ORIGINAL LOW RIPPLES EAST ALONG
THE INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TIMEFRAME IS COMING INTO
BETTER FOCUS IN TERMS OF HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECASTING THE LOW TO BE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS WILL BE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND 850MB TEMPS OF -8C MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. THERE ALSO
COULD BE LIGHT SNOW ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. IN EACH CASE ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
BOTH THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO CROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL PICK UP SOME MOISTURE FROM LAKE ERIE...BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST IN A MOIST FLOW WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IN PARTICULAR (NMM/ARW) CAPTURE THIS WITH A
BURST OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THIS TO BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE MORE FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE REGIONS ON THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND BOSTON HILLS. ALTHOUGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SHORT OF ISSUING AN ADVISORY...BUT THERE IS
A CHANCE ONE WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE TYPICAL SNOW BELTS EAST OF
LAKE ERIE.

ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS WILL BE ABOUT AN INCH AS THE FEATURE MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND STEADILY COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID TO UPPER 20S ON THE HILLS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WHILE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER ALIGNED NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER LAKES WHILE MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD BRING THE BEST SETUP FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY BRING SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH AN ADDED
BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS
EXPECT JUST MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTABLY COLDER...WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST AREAS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2-4 INCHES IN MOST AREAS WITH
JUST VERY MINOR AMOUNTS EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD ADDING UP TO MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS OVER TIME. AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE WITH ADDED LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. 3 DAY TOTALS MAY
REACH 8-12 INCHES ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER IF
FLOW ALIGNS FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME. CONSIDERED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FOR THE
UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW DIRECTION AND THUS THE EFFICIENCY OF UPSLOPE FLOW.
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LAKE ENHANCEMENT TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO BRING HIGHER TOTALS FROM
ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL MAINTAIN SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LATER FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE
MAINTAINED EAST OF THE LAKES AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF MAY BRING
A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING BY FAR THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION NEXT WEEKEND. IN
FACT...SEVERAL MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS AND
PREVIOUS 12Z ECMWF DROP 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -30C ACROSS
WESTERN NY ON SATURDAY. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST
850MB TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF
FEBRUARY IS -28C.

BACK TRAJECTORIES USING THE GEFS SHOWS THAT THE FRIGID AIR WILL BE
COMING FROM THE BAFFIN ISLAND/CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO REGION. H85
TEMPS IN THAT PARTICULAR REGION WERE NEAR -25C AS OF LAST
EVENING...AND ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AS THIS AIRMASS MOVES
SOUTHWARDS...THE COLD AIR WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY PASSES OVER
FROZEN HUDSON BAY.

GIVEN THE EXTREME AIRMASS AND GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
DAY...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES FURTHER WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS SATURDAY AND MINS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE VERIFIES TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE ZERO FOR
MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIND
MAY PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BUT AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE
ALSO VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS DESPITE THE STRONG
INSTABILITY.

THE COLD STAYS THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR RETREATS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS ALL OF WRN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK THIS AFTERNOON...AS WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN NEW YORK. THERE WILL BE THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE AREA /CHAUTAUQUA CO/ LATE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH...SO MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR KJHW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY NIGHTFALL.

TONIGHT...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO LOWERING CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW...SO VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH TIME.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SRN TIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN
AREA OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW A WEAK TROUGH AS IT PIVOTS
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE REGION...SETTLING OVER THE FINGER LAKES
REGION ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...MVFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK RIDGING FOUND BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL KEEP MODERATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPIEST CONDITIONS IN CANADIAN WATERS.

AS A LARGE STORM MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL FRESHEN A
BIT. CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SCA ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE WESTERN
HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT AGAIN...THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WAVES WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE LAKE.

FOR TUESDAY...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE
ROUGH WATERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...INCLUDING THE
NY NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
AVIATION...RSH/ZAFF
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 081748
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1248 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SPREAD
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NY AND PA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY, AS MUCH COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1125 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED POPS DOWN FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING AS PRECIP LOOKS SLOWER TO MOVE IN BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS/GUIDANCE. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON T/TD AND
SKY COVER GRIDS.


220 AM UPDATE...
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN IS FORECAST TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE STILL ABNORMALLY WARM, WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT 40 DEGREES IN MANY LOCALES.
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
225 AM UPDATE...

AS THE GREAT LAKES CYCLONE DROPS INTO WESTERN NY AND PA, LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. WE CONTINUE TO THINK THE
SNOW WILL BE INSTABILITY-BASED, AS THE UL TROF SETS UP SHOP OVER
NY AND PA AND POURS COOLER AIR INTO THE MID AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE.

A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY
NIGHT AND LATE WEDNESDAY.

COLDER 925-850MB AIR POURS ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL.
AT THIS VERY PRELIMINARY POINT, IT APPEARS THE FLOW FAVORS A LAKE
BAND OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THEN SHIFTS THE BAND TOWARD ONONDAGA/MADISON IN THE SECOND HALF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. BEST CHANCE FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW STILL LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE A WELL ALIGNED 300
FLOW WILL OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD WITH T85 AROUND -20C. THIS
COULD MEAN SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECTS SNOWS FOR PARTS OF ONONDAGA,
MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTIES. THIS WEEKEND STILL LOOKS VERY COLD
WITH POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON WITH T85
DOWN AROUND -25C.

PREVIOUS DISC...
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A MUCH COLDER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 500 MB LOW MOVES SE FROM ONTARIO
THROUGH QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND. MAIN WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DUE TO W/NW FLOW OF VERY COLD AIR OVER WARMER LAKES.
INITIALIZED FORECAST WITH SUPERBLEND BUT BEEFED UP POPS DUE TO
EXPECTED LAKE EFFECT.

TO START THE PERIOD, COLDER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING SFC LOW WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OCCURRING ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENHANCED BY THE LAKES. AT THIS POINT,
LAKE EFFECT LIKELY WON`T BE TOO ORGANIZED AND STRONG DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER WINDS BECOME BETTER
ALIGNED THURSDAY FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF ONONDAGA/MADISON/ONEIDA COUNTIES WITH REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL NY ALSO SEEING SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW WINDS AND COLD TEMPS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 20 TO 25 RANGE.

THE COLD CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT CONTINUING AND ALSO
BEING ENHANCED BY A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON LOOKS TO BE
MOVING IN WITH INDICATIONS BEING FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND ONLY IN
THE TEENS ALONG WITH SUBZERO LOWS POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS. EXPECT
SOME LAKE EFFECT INTO SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND LOOKING TO BECOME MAINLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

FOR A TIME, LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, INTENSITY SHOULD BE LIGHT, AND
COVERAGE SHOULD BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. THUS, FOR NOW, WE`LL KEEP
THE EXPECTED CATEGORY AS MVFR.

OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, WILL
BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH SAT...AT KSYR/KRME, PERSISTENT IFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW SHOWERS/HEAVIER LAKE-EFFECT SNOW.
ELSEWHERE, RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MORE PERIODIC, FROM PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBUF 081742
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1242 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WHILE THESE FEATURES WILL EVENTUALLY GENERATE SOME
SNOW FOR US...IT WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE STORMS WILL MERGE INTO A COMPLEX SYSTEM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING MORE NUISANCE SNOW IN THE PROCESS. DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK...ADDITIONAL SNOW WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH COLDER AIR...INCLUDING
SOME FRIGID ARCTIC AIR FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL US WITH A VERY ANOMALOUS LONGWAVE RIDGE IN THE WEST
AND A DEEPENING LOW IN THE EAST. THIS PATTERN HAS ALREADY
CONTRIBUTED TO A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF
STREAM...WITH ANOTHER ONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON ITS HEALS ABOUT A
DAY LATER /TUESDAY/. MEANWHILE CLOSER TO HOME...PERSISTENT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ROUGHLY TIED TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. A
WEAK TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BE
WEAKLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COASTAL LOW AS THE TROUGH PIVOTS
ACROSS ACROSS WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS SEEN TO
OUR WEST. OBSERVATIONS UNDER THIS REGION ARE SHOWING A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW DEPENDENT ON MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES PEAKING
THE MID AND UPPER 30S. AS THIS AREA MOVES SLOWLY EAST...THE ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS RAIN...BUT CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AS TEMPERATURES DROP A LITTLE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT TOGETHER WITH
WEAK DYNAMIC COOLING. PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT ANY TYPE OF FREEZING
PRECIPITATION...AND THAT WHICH DOES FALL FROZEN SHOULD AMOUNT TO
ONLY AN INCH OR SO ONCE IT IS STEADY ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE.

OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
WEST TOWARD OR INTO THIS REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT BEING ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE COASTAL LOW...ONCE AGAIN EXPECT ONLY MEAGER
ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY. THE DRIEST AREA FOR THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD
SHOULD BE TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES REGION...AT LEAST THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION
WITH FAR WESTERN NY ON THE DRIER AND SUBSIDENT SIDE. BUT ONCE
AGAIN...FORCING IS LIGHT AND EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE SLOWLY COOLING WITH
TIME...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD
EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK...WITH LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING
BACK OVER TO RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD JUST
LEAD TO WET CONDITIONS WITHOUT LASTING ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL UNFOLD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL OPEN UP
INTO A BROAD TROUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH NUMEROUS LOW AMPLITUDE
WAVES MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. EACH ONE OF THESE WEAK WAVES WILL PERIODICALLY BRING
WEAK ASCENT.

ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE AND PERIODIC WEAK LIFT WILL MAINTAIN PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE DIFFUSE AND SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FORCING WILL MAKE TIMING
THE PERIODS OF BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION DIFFICULT...BUT IN GENERAL
EXPECT MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLDER AIR BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND ALLOWS LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO COME INTO PLAY.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE
ORIGINAL LOW RIPPLES EAST ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SNOW SHOULD PICK UP IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND THE COLD
AIR GROWS DEEPER...ALLOWING FOR MORE LAKE ENHANCEMENT. EXPECT AN
INCH OR SO ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NY WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FARTHER
EAST ON WEDNESDAY. LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ERIE AND DEVELOPING
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING SEVERAL INCHES TO THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND
BOSTON HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND STEADILY COLDER
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID TO UPPER
20S ON THE HILLS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WHILE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER ALIGNED NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER LAKES WHILE MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD BRING THE BEST SETUP FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY BRING SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH AN ADDED
BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS
EXPECT JUST MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTABLY COLDER...WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST AREAS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME THROUGH THURSDAY
IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2-4 INCHES IN MOST AREAS WITH JUST VERY
MINOR AMOUNTS EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD ADDING UP TO MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS OVER TIME. AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE WITH ADDED LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. 3 DAY TOTALS
MAY REACH 8-12 INCHES ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER
IF FLOW ALIGNS FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME. CONSIDERED A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FOR
THE UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING... BUT THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DIRECTION AND THUS THE EFFICIENCY OF UPSLOPE
FLOW. SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LAKE ENHANCEMENT TOWARDS THE END
OF THE EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO BRING HIGHER
TOTALS FROM ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL MAINTAIN SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LATER FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE
MAINTAINED EAST OF THE LAKES AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF MAY BRING
A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING BY FAR THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION NEXT WEEKEND. IN
FACT...SEVERAL MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS AND
PREVIOUS 12Z ECMWF DROP 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -30C ACROSS
WESTERN NY ON SATURDAY. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST
850MB TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF
FEBRUARY IS -28C.

BACK TRAJECTORIES USING THE GEFS SHOWS THAT THE FRIGID AIR WILL BE
COMING FROM THE BAFFIN ISLAND/CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO REGION. H85
TEMPS IN THAT PARTICULAR REGION WERE NEAR -25C AS OF LAST
EVENING...AND ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AS THIS AIRMASS MOVES
SOUTHWARDS...THE COLD AIR WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY PASSES OVER
FROZEN HUDSON BAY.

GIVEN THE EXTREME AIRMASS AND GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
DAY...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES FURTHER WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS SATURDAY AND MINS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE VERIFIES TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE ZERO FOR
MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIND
MAY PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BUT AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE
ALSO VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS DESPITE THE STRONG
INSTABILITY.

THE COLD STAYS THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR RETREATS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS ALL OF WRN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK THIS AFTERNOON...AS WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN NEW YORK. THERE WILL BE THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE AREA /CHAUTAUQUA CO/ LATE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH...SO MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR KJHW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY NIGHTFALL.

TONIGHT...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO LOWERING CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW...SO VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH TIME.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SRN TIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN
AREA OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW A WEAK TROUGH AS IT PIVOTS
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE REGION...SETTLING OVER THE FINGER LAKES
REGION ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...MVFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK RIDGING FOUND BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL KEEP MODERATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPIEST CONDITIONS IN CANADIAN WATERS.

AS A LARGE STORM MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL FRESHEN A
BIT. CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SCA ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE WESTERN
HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT AGAIN...THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WAVES WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE LAKE.

FOR TUESDAY...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE
ROUGH WATERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...INCLUDING THE
NY NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
AVIATION...RSH/ZAFF
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KALY 081741
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1240 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST...A POWERFUL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
WELL EAST OF CAPE MAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA...AROUND 976 MB...IS
CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STORM IS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE CLOUDS EXTEND ALL
THE WAY UP INTO EASTERN UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA.

REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS THE BACKEDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOW REACHING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT HAS SLID SOUTH OF THE FA AND
AS A RESULT VERY DRY AIR IS WORKING SOUTHWARD. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ARE CAUSING THE PRECIP
TO INITIALLY DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THE ONE AREA WHERE
WE EXPECT THE COLUMN TO BE SATURATED ENOUGH FOR THE SNOW TO REACH
THE GROUND IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
WHERE 1-3 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
SNOWFALL FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT
CLOSES OFF ALOFT AND STARTS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. AS A
RESULT...THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DIRECT SOME OF THE COASTAL
MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING HOURS IN THESE LOCATIONS.

MAX TEMPS ONLY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...N-NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO THE STRONG STORM OFFSHORE...WITH A
FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS AT TIMES...MAINLY OVER NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS WELL OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXPANDING EASTWARD...THE MODELS SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAKING FOR A STORM TOTAL /TODAY INTO TONIGHT/ OF A
COATING TO TWO INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL LOOK TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE NIGHT...AS
MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED DUE TO THE DEPARTING COASTAL WAVE. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS...EXCEPT SOME TEENS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS JUST A COATING FOR MOST AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY HELP SPAWN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRY TO DEVELOP
BY TUESDAY EVENING OFF THE COAST...BUT THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
TOO FAR SOUTH/EAST TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO BRING THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NJ...AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF NY/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER WILL JUST BE CLOUDY SKIES WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES/PASSING SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ON TUESDAY...AND 20S
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY INTO WED
NIGHT...AS THE BROAD AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN
PLACE...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITHOUT ANY STRONG FORCING AROUND AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST A COATING TO AN INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON WED WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S...BUT COLDER TEMPS MOVING IN ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW MINS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOW
20S FOR WED NIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY START TO SET UP OFF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE WED NIGHT
AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW MAY KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WEST OF
OUR AREA ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
OPENING THE DOOR TO VERY COLD AIR. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE TO OUR FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW MOVES BEFORE HEADING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COLDER EACH DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
A PORTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH SINGLE DIGITS READINGS INTO
THE TEENS EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY.  THE COLDEST WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL
HEADLINES...BOTH ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE
WEEKEND...SO HAVE THE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SEEMS THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER SOUTHWARD AS SEEN IN
THE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS WITH PERSISTENT DROPS SEEN THIS MORNING.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY TOO REVEALS CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW WARMING OVER
THE REGION AND 1KM 1-MIN SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AMPLE BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST OVER CENTRAL NY.  WHILE SOME LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED...IT NOW APPEARS THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION IS DIMINISHING WHICH FAVORS A MORE IMPROVE AVIATION
FORECAST.  WE WILL PLACE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SNOW THAT IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR.  A LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD PREVAIL AT 10KTS
OR LESS.

AS UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD
ADVECT INTO THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH KPOU-KPSF WITH A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL PLACE A VCSH AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT GENERALLY LOOK LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN
INCH. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THESE WILL AMOUNTS TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC
SIGNIFICANCE.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING BY WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 081739
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1239 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST...A POWERFUL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
WELL EAST OF CAPE MAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA...AROUND 976 MB...IS
CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STORM IS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE CLOUDS EXTEND ALL
THE WAY UP INTO EASTERN UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA.

REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS THE BACKEDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOW REACHING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT HAS SLID SOUTH OF THE FA AND
AS A RESULT VERY DRY AIR IS WORKING SOUTHWARD. DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ARE CAUSINGTHE
PRECIP TO INITIALLY DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THE ONE
AREA WHERE WE EXPECT THE COLUMN TO BE SATURATED ENOUGH FOR THE
SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE 1-3 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SNOWFALL FOR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT
CLOSES OFF ALOFT AND STARTS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. AS A
RESULT...THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DIRECT SOME OF THE COASTAL
MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING HOURS IN THESE LOCATIONS.

MAX TEMPS ONLY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...N-NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO THE STRONG STORM OFFSHORE...WITH A
FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS AT TIMES...MAINLY OVER NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS WELL OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXPANDING EASTWARD...THE MODELS SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAKING FOR A STORM TOTAL /TODAY INTO TONIGHT/ OF A
COATING TO TWO INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL LOOK TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE NIGHT...AS
MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED DUE TO THE DEPARTING COASTAL WAVE. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS...EXCEPT SOME TEENS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS JUST A COATING FOR MOST AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY HELP SPAWN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRY TO DEVELOP
BY TUESDAY EVENING OFF THE COAST...BUT THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
TOO FAR SOUTH/EAST TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO BRING THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NJ...AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF NY/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER WILL JUST BE CLOUDY SKIES WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES/PASSING SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ON TUESDAY...AND 20S
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY INTO WED
NIGHT...AS THE BROAD AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN
PLACE...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITHOUT ANY STRONG FORCING AROUND AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST A COATING TO AN INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON WED WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S...BUT COLDER TEMPS MOVING IN ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW MINS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOW
20S FOR WED NIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY START TO SET UP OFF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE WED NIGHT
AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW MAY KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WEST OF
OUR AREA ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
OPENING THE DOOR TO VERY COLD AIR. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE TO OUR FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW MOVES BEFORE HEADING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COLDER EACH DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
A PORTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH SINGLE DIGITS READINGS INTO
THE TEENS EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY.  THE COLDEST WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL
HEADLINES...BOTH ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE
WEEKEND...SO HAVE THE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...11Z...HAS A COASTAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WITH PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ABOUT 300 SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE TAF SITES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MID/LATE MORNING AT KPSF AND KPOU AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL. AS THE SNOW STARTS EXPECTING MVFR WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO IFR DUE TO VISIBILITY AS THE SNOW INTENSITY INCREASES. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SNOW LIGHTENS
UP OR EVEN ENDS.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS....HOWEVER
SOME STRONGER WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT GENERALLY LOOK LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN
INCH. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THESE WILL AMOUNTS TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC
SIGNIFICANCE.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING BY WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 081727
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1227 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT
OBS...WHICH INCLUDED MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VT. CURRENT OBS SHOW A VERY DRY POCKET OF AIR
WITH RUTLAND AND SPRINGFIELD CURRENT DEWPOINT OF -11C...CREATING
RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS. THIS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN SOME DELAY OF THE LIGHT SNOW ARRIVING ACROSS SOUTHERN VT
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VIRGA EXPECTED INITIALLY. OTHERWISE...REST
OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE.

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AND TIMING OF LIGHT
SNOW. SATL/WATER VAPOR SHOWS MONSTER OCEAN STORM WITH EYE LIKE
FEATURE AND LIGHTNING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST...WHILE DEVELOPING TROF OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OCEAN STORM WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON
AND 2 PM SOUTHEAST VT...EXPANDING TOWARD CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 1-3 PM
AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/EASTERN DACKS BETWEEN 3-6 PM.
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL
INCHES...WHICH IS ALL COVERED WELL. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS...HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
MAINLY UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z TUESDAY WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND VISIBILITIES TO IFR WITHIN A COUPLE
OF HOURS OF ONSET OF SNOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT MOST SITES
BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10
KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS AT MSS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.


&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 081720
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1220 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT
OBS...WHICH INCLUDED MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VT. CURRENT OBS SHOW A VERY DRY POCKET OF AIR
WITH RUTLAND AND SPRINGFIELD CURRENT DEWPOINT OF -11C...CREATING
RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS. THIS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN SOME DELAY OF THE LIGHT SNOW ARRIVING ACROSS SOUTHERN VT
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VIRGA EXPECTED INITIALLY. OTHERWISE...REST
OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE.

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AND TIMING OF LIGHT
SNOW. SATL/WATER VAPOR SHOWS MONSTER OCEAN STORM WITH EYE LIKE
FEATURE AND LIGHTNING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST...WHILE DEVELOPING TROF OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OCEAN STORM WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON
AND 2 PM SOUTHEAST VT...EXPANDING TOWARD CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 1-3 PM
AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/EASTERN DACKS BETWEEN 3-6 PM.
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL
INCHES...WHICH IS ALL COVERED WELL. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS...HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
MAINLY UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERED
LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY
OVER THE VT/MASS BORDER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z
MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN AFTER 22Z DOWN TO 2 MILES AT RUT AND AFTER 00Z AT MPV WHERE I
KEPT THE VSBY STILL MVFR. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT
BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBGM 081629
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1129 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SPREAD
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NY AND PA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY, AS MUCH COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1125 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED POPS DOWN FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING AS PRECIP LOOKS SLOWER TO MOVE IN BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS/GUIDANCE. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON T/TD AND
SKY COVER GRIDS.


220 AM UPDATE...
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN IS FORECAST TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE STILL ABNORMALLY WARM, WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT 40 DEGREES IN MANY LOCALES.
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
225 AM UPDATE...

AS THE GREAT LAKES CYCLONE DROPS INTO WESTERN NY AND PA, LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. WE CONTINUE TO THINK THE
SNOW WILL BE INSTABILITY-BASED, AS THE UL TROF SETS UP SHOP OVER
NY AND PA AND POURS COOLER AIR INTO THE MID AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE.

A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY
NIGHT AND LATE WEDNESDAY.

COLDER 925-850MB AIR POURS ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL.
AT THIS VERY PRELIMINARY POINT, IT APPEARS THE FLOW FAVORS A LAKE
BAND OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THEN SHIFTS THE BAND TOWARD ONONDAGA/MADISON IN THE SECOND HALF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. BEST CHANCE FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW STILL LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE A WELL ALIGNED 300
FLOW WILL OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD WITH T85 AROUND -20C. THIS
COULD MEAN SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECTS SNOWS FOR PARTS OF ONONDAGA,
MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTIES. THIS WEEKEND STILL LOOKS VERY COLD
WITH POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON WITH T85
DOWN AROUND -25C.

PREVIOUS DISC...
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A MUCH COLDER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 500 MB LOW MOVES SE FROM ONTARIO
THROUGH QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND. MAIN WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DUE TO W/NW FLOW OF VERY COLD AIR OVER WARMER LAKES.
INITIALIZED FORECAST WITH SUPERBLEND BUT BEEFED UP POPS DUE TO
EXPECTED LAKE EFFECT.

TO START THE PERIOD, COLDER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING SFC LOW WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OCCURRING ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENHANCED BY THE LAKES. AT THIS POINT,
LAKE EFFECT LIKELY WON`T BE TOO ORGANIZED AND STRONG DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER WINDS BECOME BETTER
ALIGNED THURSDAY FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF ONONDAGA/MADISON/ONEIDA COUNTIES WITH REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL NY ALSO SEEING SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW WINDS AND COLD TEMPS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 20 TO 25 RANGE.

THE COLD CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT CONTINUING AND ALSO
BEING ENHANCED BY A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON LOOKS TO BE
MOVING IN WITH INDICATIONS BEING FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND ONLY IN
THE TEENS ALONG WITH SUBZERO LOWS POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS. EXPECT
SOME LAKE EFFECT INTO SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND LOOKING TO BECOME MAINLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR TODAY, MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER. BY 00Z CIGS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 4K FT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 06Z DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS.

E/SE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 5-8 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE THRU FRI...PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...RRM



000
FXUS61 KBGM 081629
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1129 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SPREAD
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NY AND PA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY, AS MUCH COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1125 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED POPS DOWN FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING AS PRECIP LOOKS SLOWER TO MOVE IN BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS/GUIDANCE. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON T/TD AND
SKY COVER GRIDS.


220 AM UPDATE...
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN IS FORECAST TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE STILL ABNORMALLY WARM, WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT 40 DEGREES IN MANY LOCALES.
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
225 AM UPDATE...

AS THE GREAT LAKES CYCLONE DROPS INTO WESTERN NY AND PA, LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. WE CONTINUE TO THINK THE
SNOW WILL BE INSTABILITY-BASED, AS THE UL TROF SETS UP SHOP OVER
NY AND PA AND POURS COOLER AIR INTO THE MID AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE.

A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY
NIGHT AND LATE WEDNESDAY.

COLDER 925-850MB AIR POURS ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL.
AT THIS VERY PRELIMINARY POINT, IT APPEARS THE FLOW FAVORS A LAKE
BAND OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THEN SHIFTS THE BAND TOWARD ONONDAGA/MADISON IN THE SECOND HALF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. BEST CHANCE FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW STILL LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE A WELL ALIGNED 300
FLOW WILL OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD WITH T85 AROUND -20C. THIS
COULD MEAN SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECTS SNOWS FOR PARTS OF ONONDAGA,
MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTIES. THIS WEEKEND STILL LOOKS VERY COLD
WITH POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON WITH T85
DOWN AROUND -25C.

PREVIOUS DISC...
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A MUCH COLDER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 500 MB LOW MOVES SE FROM ONTARIO
THROUGH QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND. MAIN WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DUE TO W/NW FLOW OF VERY COLD AIR OVER WARMER LAKES.
INITIALIZED FORECAST WITH SUPERBLEND BUT BEEFED UP POPS DUE TO
EXPECTED LAKE EFFECT.

TO START THE PERIOD, COLDER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING SFC LOW WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OCCURRING ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENHANCED BY THE LAKES. AT THIS POINT,
LAKE EFFECT LIKELY WON`T BE TOO ORGANIZED AND STRONG DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER WINDS BECOME BETTER
ALIGNED THURSDAY FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF ONONDAGA/MADISON/ONEIDA COUNTIES WITH REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL NY ALSO SEEING SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW WINDS AND COLD TEMPS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 20 TO 25 RANGE.

THE COLD CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT CONTINUING AND ALSO
BEING ENHANCED BY A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON LOOKS TO BE
MOVING IN WITH INDICATIONS BEING FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND ONLY IN
THE TEENS ALONG WITH SUBZERO LOWS POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS. EXPECT
SOME LAKE EFFECT INTO SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND LOOKING TO BECOME MAINLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR TODAY, MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER. BY 00Z CIGS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 4K FT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 06Z DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS.

E/SE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 5-8 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE THRU FRI...PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 081538
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1038 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY
AND PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
THEN SPIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC
AIR MASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW CONTINUES TO SLOW PUSH WEST...AND AS OF 14Z HAS
REACHED PARTS OF THE CITY. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD JUST BARELY PUSH
INTO THE REST OF THE CWA AT SOME POINT. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
FCST AND LATEST RADAR SUPPORT MESOSCALE BANDING PRIMARILY OVER
PARTS OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. DECENT LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE IN THESE BANDS SHOULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL TOTALS.
THERMAL PROFILES HAVE NOW COOLED ENOUGH FOR PCPN TYPE TO BE ALL
SNOW FROM THIS POINT ON. WILL LEAVE SNOWFALL FCST...WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME AS WE`RE JUST UNDERWAY AND RADAR
SUPPORTS CURRENT THINKING. SOME CONCERN HOWEVER THAT AREAS WEST OF
THE HUDSON CURRENTLY UNDER AN ADVISORY MIGHT NOT REACH THE
CRITERIA.

WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDS ARE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FORKS AND COASTAL SE CT. THE COMBO
OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW COULD ALSO RESULT IN DOWNED TREES
AND POWER LINES.

FARTHER WEST...SNOW SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH LIFT
GENERATED A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK OVER INTERIOR PA/NY.
THESE AREAS SHOULD SEE A GENERAL 1-3 OR 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL.

TEMPS AFTER SNOW BEGINS WILL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING...THEN BEGIN TO
SLOWLY FALL THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STEADY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. AS AN UPPER TROUGH
TRACKS EAST...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...AND BRING LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND W FROM THIS OFFSHORE LOW...AND COULD
BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW JUST TO ITS NORTH.
HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL SET UP ATTM...AND BEARS
WATCHING ESPECIALLY FOR NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PLUS LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING DRY ADIABATIC AT TIMES WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 500FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD SO ALL SNOW IS FORECAST. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL BE NEEDED FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH SUPERBLEND NUMBERS...SO
DROPPED THEM DOWN A DEGREE FOR NOW. FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
MAINLY LIGHT AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ON WED.

A FIRST WAVE OF COLDER AIR COMES IN ON THU. VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AGAIN SO ANY MOISTURE IN THE AREA SHOULD BE SQUEEZED
OUT WITH MORE LIGHT SNOW. SNOW CHANCES LESSEN ON FRI AT THIS TIME
WITH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXITING THE AREA. THE ARCTIC FRONT
LOOKS TO BE FRI NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR A FRIGID WEEKEND.
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SAT...THEN DRY ON SUN WITH A
1040S HI BUILDING IN FROM THE W.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PASS TO THE
EAST TODAY.

MVFR TO IFR CONDS IN SNOW FROM KNYC TERMINALS EAST. THERE WILL BE
A SHARP CUTOFF LINE BETWEEN LIGHT SNOW/NO SNOW AND THE HEAVIER
BANDS OF SNOW...AND IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT SNOW WILL MAKE
IT TO KEWR/KTEB. THINK ONLY LIGHT SNOW WILL MAKE IT TO KSWF.

ALSO...AT KGON/KISP...EXPECT LIFR THROUGH 19-20Z WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIFR AT CITY TERMINALS AND
KBDR. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AT CITY TERMINALS AROUND
20Z-21Z.

GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE NE WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT LIKELY.
PEAK GUSTS UP TO 35 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS. EXCEPTION IS
AT KSWF WHERE GUSTS TO ONLY AROUND 20 KT ARE FORECAST. GUSTS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AROUND/AFTER 20Z.

FOR TONIGHT...NE WINDS LIGHTEN. MVFR SHOULD PREVAILS. ON AND OFF
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

LIKELY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF:
AROUND 1 INCH FOR KSWF.
1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS KEWR/KTEB.
2 TO 3 INCHES FOR KLGA/KJFK
2 TO 5 INCHES FOR KHPN/KBDR.
4 TO 8 INCHES FOR KISP/KGON.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUM OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. SNOWFALL RATES
UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUM OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. SNOWFALL RATES
UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR IS POSSIBLE IF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW MOVES
IN FROM THE EAST. SNOW ACCUM OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR IS POSSIBLE IF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW MOVES
IN FROM THE EAST. SNOW ACCUM OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR TO IFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO
AS SNOW APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. SNOW ACCUM OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IFR TO LIFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO AS HEAVIER SNOW APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. SNOW ACCUM OF AROUND
4 TO 8 INCHES. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN INTERMITTENT SNOW.
N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN W-NW
WINDS G15-25 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATO-CUMULUS AND FLURRIES. W-NW WINDS G15-25KT
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY.
EXPECT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS ON THE OCEAN...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND BAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ON NY HARBOR...WESTERN
LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.

A FEW GUSTS TO STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ON EASTERN OCEAN
WATERS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
ALSO...A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO GALES.

WINDS DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AS LOW PRES DEPARTS.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN HIGH...AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE SEAS TO SETTLE...AT LEAST BACK TO SUB-SCA LEVELS.

HEADLINES FOR THE GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN UNCHANGED.

SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TUE-SAT. PERIODS OF SCA LEVEL WINDS
LIKELY IN THE TUE-SAT PERIOD ELSEWHERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF WILL RANGE FROM 1/10-1/4 INCH WEST OF THE
HUDSON...TO 1/4-1/2 INCH NYC AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND/CT...TO
1/2-3/4 INCH EASTERN LONG ISLAND/CT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
AS SNOW...SO NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS THEN LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AT THIS TIME AND ALL IN
THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY DUE TO NEW MOON AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES AFFECTING
THE REGION.

AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE BROUGHT 2 TO 3 FT OR SURGE TO THE REGION
THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS ALONG
THE VULNERABLE SOUTH SHORE BAY AREAS OF QUEENS AND BROOKLYN AND
WESTERN LI. POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE IMPACTS ACROSS VULNERABLE
LOCALES ALONG WESTERN LI SOUND THROUGH 11AM...OTHERWISE JUST
MINOR IMPACTS FOR SOUND ADJACENT LOCALES OF SW CT...COASTAL
WESTCHESTER...AND WESTERN LI LOCALES.

LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THIS EVENING. WITH LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
TONIGHT AND LIGHTENING WINDS...WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE A BIT
LOWER...WITH MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE FLOODING FLOODING FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND/NY AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LONG ISLAND ADJACENT TO WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.

AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES...WINDS SHOULD VEER
MORE TO THE NE AS ADDITIONAL WAVE/S OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND MULTI-TIDAL
CYCLE NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL MINOR
FLOODING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING IN THE SOUTH SHORE BAY AREAS TUESDAY. MINOR TO POSSIBLY
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY AM HIGH
TIDE CYCLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AREAS.

HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL PRESENT A MODERATE TO HIGH THREAT
FOR AREAS OF DUNE TOE EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE ISLAND.
THIS IS BASED ON MODELED IMPACTS OF GALE CENTER FROM THE USGS
COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ006>008-010>012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005-
     009.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ068>075-176>179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ074-
     075-080-081-178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ176.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ080-081-178-
     179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ075-080-178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071-
     073-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ078-177.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ004-
     006-103>108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ006-
     106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MPS/PW
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 081457
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
957 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY
AND PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
THEN SPIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC
AIR MASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW CONTINUES TO SLOW PUSH WEST...AND AS OF 14Z HAS
REACHED PARTS OF THE CITY. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD JUST BARELY PUSH
INTO THE REST OF THE CWA AT SOME POINT. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
FCST AND LATEST RADAR SUPPORT MESOSCALE BANDING PRIMARILY OVER
PARTS OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. DECENT LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE IN THESE BANDS SHOULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL TOTALS.
THERMAL PROFILES HAVE NOW COOLED ENOUGH FOR PCPN TYPE TO BE ALL
SNOW FROM THIS POINT ON. WILL LEAVE SNOWFALL FCST...WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME AS WE`RE JUST UNDERWAY AND RADAR
SUPPORTS CURRENT THINKING. SOME CONCERN HOWEVER THAT AREAS WEST OF
THE HUDSON CURRENTLY UNDER AN ADVISORY MIGHT NOT REACH THE
CRITERIA.

WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDS ARE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FORKS AND COASTAL SE CT. THE COMBO
OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW COULD ALSO RESULT IN DOWNED TREES
AND POWER LINES.

FARTHER WEST...SNOW SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH LIFT
GENERATED A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK OVER INTERIOR PA/NY.
THESE AREAS SHOULD SEE A GENERAL 1-3 OR 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL.

TEMPS AFTER SNOW BEGINS WILL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING...THEN BEGIN TO
SLOWLY FALL THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STEADY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. AS AN UPPER TROUGH
TRACKS EAST...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...AND BRING LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND W FROM THIS OFFSHORE LOW...AND COULD
BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW JUST TO ITS NORTH.
HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL SET UP ATTM...AND BEARS
WATCHING ESPECIALLY FOR NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PLUS LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING DRY ADIABATIC AT TIMES WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 500FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD SO ALL SNOW IS FORECAST. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL BE NEEDED FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH SUPERBLEND NUMBERS...SO
DROPPED THEM DOWN A DEGREE FOR NOW. FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
MAINLY LIGHT AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ON WED.

A FIRST WAVE OF COLDER AIR COMES IN ON THU. VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AGAIN SO ANY MOISTURE IN THE AREA SHOULD BE SQUEEZED
OUT WITH MORE LIGHT SNOW. SNOW CHANCES LESSEN ON FRI AT THIS TIME
WITH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXITING THE AREA. THE ARCTIC FRONT
LOOKS TO BE FRI NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR A FRIGID WEEKEND.
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SAT...THEN DRY ON SUN WITH A
1040S HI BUILDING IN FROM THE W.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PASS TO THE
EAST TODAY.

MVFR TO IFR CONDS IN SNOW FROM KNYC TERMINALS EAST. THERE WILL BE
A SHARP CUTOFF LINE BETWEEN LIGHT SNOW/NO SNOW AND THE HEAVIER
BANDS OF SNOW...AND IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT SNOW WILL MAKE
IT TO KEWR/KTEB. THINK ONLY LIGHT SNOW WILL MAKE IT TO KSWF.

ALSO...AT KGON/KISP...EXPECT LIFR THROUGH 19-20Z WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIFR AT CITY TERMINALS AND
KBDR. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AT CITY TERMINALS AROUND
20Z-21Z.

GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE NE WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT LIKELY.
PEAK GUSTS UP TO 35 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS. EXCEPTION IS
AT KSWF WHERE GUSTS TO ONLY AROUND 20 KT ARE FORECAST. GUSTS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AROUND/AFTER 20Z.

FOR TONIGHT...NE WINDS LIGHTEN. MVFR SHOULD PREVAILS. ON AND OFF
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

LIKELY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF:
AROUND 1 INCH FOR KSWF.
1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS KEWR/KTEB.
2 TO 3 INCHES FOR KLGA/KJFK
2 TO 5 INCHES FOR KHPN/KBDR.
4 TO 8 INCHES FOR KISP/KGON.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUM OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. SNOWFALL RATES
UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUM OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. SNOWFALL RATES
UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR IS POSSIBLE IF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW MOVES
IN FROM THE EAST. SNOW ACCUM OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR IS POSSIBLE IF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW MOVES
IN FROM THE EAST. SNOW ACCUM OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR TO IFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO
AS SNOW APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. SNOW ACCUM OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IFR TO LIFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO AS HEAVIER SNOW APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. SNOW ACCUM OF AROUND
4 TO 8 INCHES. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN INTERMITTENT SNOW.
N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN W-NW
WINDS G15-25 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATO-CUMULUS AND FLURRIES. W-NW WINDS G15-25KT
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY.
EXPECT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS ON THE OCEAN...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND BAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ON NY HARBOR...WESTERN
LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.

A FEW GUSTS TO STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ON EASTERN OCEAN
WATERS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
ALSO...A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO GALES.

WINDS DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AS LOW PRES DEPARTS.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN HIGH...AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE SEAS TO SETTLE...AT LEAST BACK TO SUB-SCA LEVELS.

HEADLINES FOR THE GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN UNCHANGED.

SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TUE-SAT. PERIODS OF SCA LEVEL WINDS
LIKELY IN THE TUE-SAT PERIOD ELSEWHERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF WILL RANGE FROM 1/10-1/4 INCH WEST OF THE
HUDSON...TO 1/4-1/2 INCH NYC AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND/CT...TO
1/2-3/4 INCH EASTERN LONG ISLAND/CT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
AS SNOW...SO NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS THEN LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AT THIS TIME AND ALL IN
THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. NEW MOON TODAY...AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES
WILL AFFECT THE REGION.

AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SE OF THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
RESULT IN STRONG NE/N WINDS. BASED ON A TRACK OF INTENSIFYING LOW
THAT SHOULD BE SE OF THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK AND COLD AIR
DAMMING SIGNATURE...WOULD EXPECT WINDS TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE N
THAN NE. THIS SHOULD FAVOR THE LOWER SURGE GUIDANCE FOR THE MORNING
AND NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES...WHICH WILL KEEP FLOODING MINOR AND
LIMITED TO THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCALES. ISOLATED MODERATE
FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOST VULNERABLE SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY. DUE TO THE LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TONIGHT AND LIGHTENING
WINDS...WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER...WITH MINOR FLOODING
MAINLY LIMITED TO THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND/NY AND ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND ADJACENT TO WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.

AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES...WINDS SHOULD VEER
MORE TO THE NE AS ADDITIONAL WAVE/S OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND MULTI-TIDAL
CYCLE NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL MINOR
FLOODING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING IN THE SOUTH SHORE BAY AREAS TUESDAY. SURGE SHOULD
DECREASE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT LINGERING
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY INT HE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS AREAS.

HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL ONCE AGAIN PRESENT A MODERATE TO
HIGH THREAT FOR AREAS OF DUNE TOE EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE
ISLAND. THIS IS BASED ON MODELED IMPACTS OF GALE CENTER FROM THE
USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ006>008-010>012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005-
     009.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ068>075-176>179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ074-
     075-080-081-178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ176.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ080-081-178-
     179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ075-080-178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071-
     073-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ078-177.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ004-
     006-103>108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ006-
     106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MPS/PW
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBUF 081440
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
940 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WHILE THESE FEATURES WILL EVENTUALLY GENERATE SOME
SNOW FOR US...IT WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE STORMS WILL MERGE INTO A COMPLEX SYSTEM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING MORE NUISANCE SNOW IN THE PROCESS. DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK...ADDITIONAL SNOW WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH COLDER AIR...INCLUDING
SOME FRIGID ARCTIC AIR FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SFC AND UPPER AIR MAPS ARE `BUSY` THIS MORNING AS A COMPLEX
WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
LETS START WITH THE MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM...THAT BEING THE COASTAL
STORM WELL OFF VIRGINIA. THIS FEATURE...WHILE MAKING NEWS HEADLINES
FOR ITS EFFECTS ON THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON OUR REGION. IT WILL ATTEMPT TO THROW SOME ATLANTIC BASED
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...BUT AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ADIRONDACKS WILL GENERALLY
DOWNSLOPE INTO THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY AND FURTHER CUT BACK ON ANY
LIGHT SNOW THAT DOES MAKE IT THAT FAR INTO OUR REGION.

THE SECOND STORM ON THE MAPS THIS MORNING IS AN EXPANSIVE BUT
OTHERWISE UNIMPRESSIVE LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS NEARLY NON-EXISTENT...AND BEHAVING MORE
LIKE A CUT-OFF LOW. THE MAIN JET IS NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
MEAGER 60KT JET ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD...WITH A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE
TO OUR WEST OVER OH. THIS AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF
INTEREST AS IS SLOWLY CREEPS EASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
KEEP JUST MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND LET INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CREEP INTO
ONLY FAR WESTERN NY LATE TODAY /CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY/.

IN TERMS OF P-TYPE...WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ROOM AT CLOUD
LEVEL FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH...THE AIR IN THE LOWEST COUPLE
THOUSAND FEET SHOULD BE TOO `WARM` TO SUPPORT JUST PLAIN SNOW.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN INSTEAD...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A
LITTLE WET SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF WILL BE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IF THAT...AGAIN OVER FAR WESTERN NY
/CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY/.

DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 40 EAST OF LK ONT.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL STALL IN THE VCNTY OF
NORTHERN OHIO WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERNMOST ONTARIO. MINIMAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEW YORK DURING
THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT...BUT WHILE THIS SHOULD HELP TO MAKE LIGHT
PCPN MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE REGION...IT WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS WHOLE SYSTEM SO QPF
(IE. SNOWFALL) WILL BE MINIMAL. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS
SOMEWHAT BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF LIFT. IN FACT...PARTS OF THE
FINGER LAKES REGION MAY NOT `MEASURE` AS THAT AREA WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING. THE LOWEST POPS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THAT PARTICULAR AREA.

ANY MIXED PCPN EARLY IN THE EVENING SHOULD CHANGE TO JUST LIGHT SNOW
AS THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS COOL THROUGH THE 30S...AND IN
SOME AREAS...INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL UNFOLD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WILL
OPEN UP INTO A BROAD TROUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH NUMEROUS LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. EACH ONE OF THESE WEAK WAVES WILL PERIODICALLY BRING WEAK
ASCENT. AT THE SURFACE...AN INITIAL PARENT LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF LAKE HURON TUESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SECONDARY COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL PARENT LOW WILL SLOWLY DISSOLVE INTO A
WEST/EAST ORIENTED INVERTED TROUGH WHICH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WHAT REMAINS
OF THE ORIGINAL LOW WILL DRIFT EAST ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY.

ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE AND PERIODIC WEAK LIFT WILL MAINTAIN PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
DIFFUSE AND SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FORCING WILL MAKE TIMING THE
PERIODS OF BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION DIFFICULT...BUT IN GENERAL
EXPECT MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLDER AIR BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND ALLOWS LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO COME INTO PLAY.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON TUESDAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE OPENING MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND WEAK SURFACE LOW. FORCING
AND MOISTURE IS WEAKEST ON TUESDAY...SO EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO
BE A HALF INCH OR LESS IN MOST AREAS WITH UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE
HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID OR EVEN UPPER
30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER LIMIT ACCUMULATION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE ORIGINAL LOW RIPPLES EAST ALONG
THE INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOULD PICK UP IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND THE COLD AIR GROWS DEEPER...ALLOWING FOR
MORE LAKE ENHANCEMENT. EXPECT AN INCH OR SO ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NY
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY. LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF
LAKE ERIE AND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING SEVERAL INCHES TO
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND BOSTON HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND STEADILY COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID TO UPPER 20S ON THE HILLS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WHILE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER ALIGNED NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER LAKES WHILE MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD BRING THE BEST SETUP FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY BRING SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH AN ADDED
BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS
EXPECT JUST MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTABLY COLDER...WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST AREAS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2-4 INCHES IN MOST AREAS WITH
JUST VERY MINOR AMOUNTS EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD ADDING UP TO MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS OVER TIME. AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE WITH ADDED LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. 3 DAY TOTALS MAY
REACH 8-12 INCHES ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER IF
FLOW ALIGNS FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME. CONSIDERED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FOR THE
UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW DIRECTION AND THUS THE EFFICIENCY OF UPSLOPE FLOW.
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LAKE ENHANCEMENT TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO BRING HIGHER TOTALS FROM
ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL MAINTAIN SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LATER FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE
MAINTAINED EAST OF THE LAKES AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF MAY BRING
A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING BY FAR THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION NEXT WEEKEND. IN
FACT...SEVERAL MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS AND
PREVIOUS 12Z ECMWF DROP 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -30C ACROSS
WESTERN NY ON SATURDAY. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST
850MB TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF
FEBRUARY IS -28C.

BACK TRAJECTORIES USING THE GEFS SHOWS THAT THE FRIGID AIR WILL BE
COMING FROM THE BAFFIN ISLAND/CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO REGION. H85 TEMPS
IN THAT PARTICULAR REGION WERE NEAR -25C AS OF LAST EVENING...AND
ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AS THIS AIRMASS MOVES SOUTHWARDS...THE
COLD AIR WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY PASSES OVER FROZEN HUDSON
BAY.

GIVEN THE EXTREME AIRMASS AND GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
DAY...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES FURTHER WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS SATURDAY AND MINS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE VERIFIES TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE ZERO FOR
MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIND
MAY PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BUT AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE
ALSO VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS DESPITE THE STRONG
INSTABILITY.

THE COLD STAYS THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR RETREATS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS ALL OF WRN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK TODAY...AS WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN NEW YORK.

WHILE CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN DURING THE COURSE
OF THE DAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA /CHAUTAUQUA CO/ LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH...SO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KJHW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
NIGHTFALL.

TONIGHT...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO LOWERING CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW...SO VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH TIME.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SRN TIER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...MVFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK RIDGING FOUND BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL KEEP MODERATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPIEST CONDITIONS IN CANADIAN WATERS.

AS A LARGE STORM MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL FRESHEN A
BIT. CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SCA ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE WESTERN
HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT AGAIN...THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WAVES WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE LAKE.

FOR TUESDAY...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE
ROUGH WATERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...INCLUDING THE
NY NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
AVIATION...RSH/ZAFF
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 081417
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
917 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 911 AM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AND TIMING OF LIGHT
SNOW. SATL/WATER VAPOR SHOWS MONSTER OCEAN STORM WITH EYE LIKE
FEATURE AND LIGHTNING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST...WHILE DEVELOPING TROF OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OCEAN STORM WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON
AND 2 PM SOUTHEAST VT...EXPANDING TOWARD CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 1-3 PM
AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/EASTERN DACKS BETWEEN 3-6 PM.
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL
INCHES...WHICH IS ALL COVERED WELL. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS...HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
MAINLY UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERED
LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY
OVER THE VT/MASS BORDER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z
MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN AFTER 22Z DOWN TO 2 MILES AT RUT AND AFTER 00Z AT MPV WHERE I
KEPT THE VSBY STILL MVFR. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT
BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 081417
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
917 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 911 AM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AND TIMING OF LIGHT
SNOW. SATL/WATER VAPOR SHOWS MONSTER OCEAN STORM WITH EYE LIKE
FEATURE AND LIGHTNING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST...WHILE DEVELOPING TROF OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OCEAN STORM WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON
AND 2 PM SOUTHEAST VT...EXPANDING TOWARD CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 1-3 PM
AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/EASTERN DACKS BETWEEN 3-6 PM.
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL
INCHES...WHICH IS ALL COVERED WELL. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS...HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
MAINLY UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERED
LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY
OVER THE VT/MASS BORDER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z
MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN AFTER 22Z DOWN TO 2 MILES AT RUT AND AFTER 00Z AT MPV WHERE I
KEPT THE VSBY STILL MVFR. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT
BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 081417
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
917 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 911 AM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AND TIMING OF LIGHT
SNOW. SATL/WATER VAPOR SHOWS MONSTER OCEAN STORM WITH EYE LIKE
FEATURE AND LIGHTNING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST...WHILE DEVELOPING TROF OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OCEAN STORM WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON
AND 2 PM SOUTHEAST VT...EXPANDING TOWARD CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 1-3 PM
AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/EASTERN DACKS BETWEEN 3-6 PM.
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL
INCHES...WHICH IS ALL COVERED WELL. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS...HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
MAINLY UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERED
LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY
OVER THE VT/MASS BORDER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z
MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN AFTER 22Z DOWN TO 2 MILES AT RUT AND AFTER 00Z AT MPV WHERE I
KEPT THE VSBY STILL MVFR. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT
BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 081417
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
917 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 911 AM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AND TIMING OF LIGHT
SNOW. SATL/WATER VAPOR SHOWS MONSTER OCEAN STORM WITH EYE LIKE
FEATURE AND LIGHTNING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST...WHILE DEVELOPING TROF OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OCEAN STORM WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON
AND 2 PM SOUTHEAST VT...EXPANDING TOWARD CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 1-3 PM
AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/EASTERN DACKS BETWEEN 3-6 PM.
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL
INCHES...WHICH IS ALL COVERED WELL. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS...HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
MAINLY UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERED
LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY
OVER THE VT/MASS BORDER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z
MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN AFTER 22Z DOWN TO 2 MILES AT RUT AND AFTER 00Z AT MPV WHERE I
KEPT THE VSBY STILL MVFR. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT
BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 081417
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
917 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 911 AM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS AND TIMING OF LIGHT
SNOW. SATL/WATER VAPOR SHOWS MONSTER OCEAN STORM WITH EYE LIKE
FEATURE AND LIGHTNING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST...WHILE DEVELOPING TROF OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OCEAN STORM WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON
AND 2 PM SOUTHEAST VT...EXPANDING TOWARD CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 1-3 PM
AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/EASTERN DACKS BETWEEN 3-6 PM.
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL
INCHES...WHICH IS ALL COVERED WELL. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS...HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
MAINLY UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERED
LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY
OVER THE VT/MASS BORDER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z
MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN AFTER 22Z DOWN TO 2 MILES AT RUT AND AFTER 00Z AT MPV WHERE I
KEPT THE VSBY STILL MVFR. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT
BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBUF 081219
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
719 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WHILE THESE FEATURES WILL EVENTUALLY GENERATE SOME
SNOW FOR US...IT WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE STORMS WILL MERGE INTO A COMPLEX SYSTEM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING MORE NUISANCE SNOW IN THE PROCESS. DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK...ADDITIONAL SNOW WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH COLDER AIR...INCLUDING
SOME FRIGID ARCTIC AIR FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SFC AND UPPER AIR MAPS ARE `BUSY` THIS MORNING AS A COMPLEX
WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
LETS START WITH THE MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM...THAT BEING THE COASTAL
STORM WELL OFF VIRGINIA. THIS FEATURE...WHILE MAKING NEWS HEADLINES
FOR ITS EFFECTS ON THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON OUR REGION. IT WILL ATTEMPT TO THROW SOME ATLANTIC BASED
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...BUT AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ADIRONDACKS WILL GENERALLY
DOWNSLOPE INTO THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY AND FURTHER CUT BACK ON ANY
LIGHT SNOW THAT DOES MAKE IT THAT FAR INTO OUR REGION.

THE SECOND STORM ON THE MAPS THIS MORNING IS AN EXPANSIVE BUT
OTHERWISE UNIMPRESSIVE LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT FIRST
GLANCE...ONE COULD GET EXCITED ABOUT THE SATELLITE IMAGES AND
SYNOPTIC MAPS OF THIS FEATURE...BUT WITH A LITTLE DIGGING ONE CAN
SEE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS FAR FROM THREATENING. WHILE THIS STORM
SYSTEM IS ONLY A DAY OR SO OLD...IT HAS ALREADY OCCLUDED AND IS
BARELY AT A 1000MB. AS THE LAST OF A PAIR OF VERY VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVES DIG INTO THE BASE OF ITS SUPPORTING LONGWAVE TROUGH...
THE BROAD STORM SYSTEM WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...THERE WILL STILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC LIFT. MORE ON THIS IN A MOMENT.

BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEMS DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL BE A
SFC BASED RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN QUEBEC AND THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THIS RIDGING WILL HELP
TO KEEP THE MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA PCPN FREE TODAY...
PARTICULARLY SITES EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. FOR THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES...CONTINUING BACKING OF THE LOW LEVELS WINDS DOWNSTREAM
OF THE DIGGING AND PROGRESSIVELY MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL FURTHER DETER PCPN FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION
FROM OHIO. HAVE CONTINUED THE FORECAST TREND OF BACKING OFF ON THE
DAYTIME POPS...WITH ONLY SLGT/LOW CHC POPS BEING FOUND ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE WRN COUNTIES. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY ONLY. THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THE PCPN WILL BE 100M HGT
FALLS AND A PERSISTENT MID-UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW.

IN TERMS OF P-TYPE...WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ROOM AT CLOUD
LEVEL FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH...THE AIR IN THE LOWEST COUPLE
THOUSAND FEET SHOULD BE TOO `WARM` TO SUPPORT JUST PLAIN SNOW. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN INSTEAD...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A LITTLE
WET SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF WILL BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH.

DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 40 EAST OF LK ONT.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL STALL IN THE VCNTY OF
NORTHERN OHIO WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERNMOST ONTARIO. MINIMAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEW YORK DURING
THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT...BUT WHILE THIS SHOULD HELP TO MAKE LIGHT
PCPN MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE REGION...IT WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS WHOLE SYSTEM SO QPF
(IE. SNOWFALL) WILL NOT BE MINIMAL. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS
SOMEWHAT BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF LIFT. IN FACT...PARTS OF THE FINGER
LAKES REGION MAY NOT `MEASURE` AS THAT AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING. THE LOWEST POPS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THAT PARTICULAR AREA.

ANY MIXED PCPN EARLY IN THE EVENING SHOULD CHANGE TO JUST LIGHT SNOW
AS THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS COOL THROUGH THE 30S...AND IN
SOME AREAS...INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL UNFOLD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WILL
OPEN UP INTO A BROAD TROUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH NUMEROUS LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. EACH ONE OF THESE WEAK WAVES WILL PERIODICALLY BRING WEAK
ASCENT. AT THE SURFACE...AN INITIAL PARENT LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF LAKE HURON TUESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SECONDARY COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL PARENT LOW WILL SLOWLY DISSOLVE INTO A
WEST/EAST ORIENTED INVERTED TROUGH WHICH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WHAT REMAINS
OF THE ORIGINAL LOW WILL DRIFT EAST ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY.

ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE AND PERIODIC WEAK LIFT WILL MAINTAIN PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
DIFFUSE AND SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FORCING WILL MAKE TIMING THE
PERIODS OF BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION DIFFICULT...BUT IN GENERAL
EXPECT MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLDER AIR BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND ALLOWS LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO COME INTO PLAY.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON TUESDAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE OPENING MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND WEAK SURFACE LOW. FORCING
AND MOISTURE IS WEAKEST ON TUESDAY...SO EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO
BE A HALF INCH OR LESS IN MOST AREAS WITH UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE
HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID OR EVEN UPPER
30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER LIMIT ACCUMULATION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE ORIGINAL LOW RIPPLES EAST ALONG
THE INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOULD PICK UP IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND THE COLD AIR GROWS DEEPER...ALLOWING FOR
MORE LAKE ENHANCEMENT. EXPECT AN INCH OR SO ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NY
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY. LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF
LAKE ERIE AND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING SEVERAL INCHES TO
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND BOSTON HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND STEADILY COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID TO UPPER 20S ON THE HILLS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WHILE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER ALIGNED NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER LAKES WHILE MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD BRING THE BEST SETUP FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY BRING SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH AN ADDED
BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS
EXPECT JUST MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTABLY COLDER...WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST AREAS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2-4 INCHES IN MOST AREAS WITH
JUST VERY MINOR AMOUNTS EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD ADDING UP TO MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS OVER TIME. AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE WITH ADDED LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. 3 DAY TOTALS MAY
REACH 8-12 INCHES ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER IF
FLOW ALIGNS FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME. CONSIDERED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FOR THE
UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW DIRECTION AND THUS THE EFFICIENCY OF UPSLOPE FLOW.
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LAKE ENHANCEMENT TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO BRING HIGHER TOTALS FROM
ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL MAINTAIN SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LATER FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE
MAINTAINED EAST OF THE LAKES AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF MAY BRING
A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING BY FAR THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION NEXT WEEKEND. IN
FACT...SEVERAL MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS AND
PREVIOUS 12Z ECMWF DROP 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -30C ACROSS
WESTERN NY ON SATURDAY. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST
850MB TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF
FEBRUARY IS -28C.

BACK TRAJECTORIES USING THE GEFS SHOWS THAT THE FRIGID AIR WILL BE
COMING FROM THE BAFFIN ISLAND/CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO REGION. H85 TEMPS
IN THAT PARTICULAR REGION WERE NEAR -25C AS OF LAST EVENING...AND
ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AS THIS AIRMASS MOVES SOUTHWARDS...THE
COLD AIR WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY PASSES OVER FROZEN HUDSON
BAY.

GIVEN THE EXTREME AIRMASS AND GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
DAY...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES FURTHER WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS SATURDAY AND MINS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE VERIFIES TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE ZERO FOR
MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIND
MAY PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BUT AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE
ALSO VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS DESPITE THE STRONG
INSTABILITY.

THE COLD STAYS THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR RETREATS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS ALL OF WRN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK THIS MORNING...AS WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN NEW YORK.

WHILE CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN DURING THE COURSE
OF THE DAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA (CHAUTAUQUA CO) LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH...SO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KJHW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY NIGHTFALL.

TONIGHT...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO LOWERING CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW...SO VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH TIME.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SRN TIER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...MVFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK RIDGING FOUND BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL KEEP MODERATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPIEST CONDITIONS IN CANADIAN WATERS.

AS A LARGE STORM MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL FRESHEN A
BIT. CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SCA ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE WESTERN
HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT AGAIN...THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WAVES WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE LAKE.

FOR TUESDAY...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE
ROUGH WATERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...INCLUDING THE
NY NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KOKX 081209
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
709 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY
AND PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
THEN SPIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC
AIR MASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEAR TERM MESOSCALE UPDATE...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG H7-5 FRONTOGENESIS ARE SPREADING ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING
WESTWARD INTO MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.
PRECIP COULD BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT THE VERY ONSET ALONG THE
COAST...BUT THEN EVAPORATIVE/DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALOFT SHOULD
QUICKLY CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO SNOW. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN
CT...AND BASED ON RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP/HRRR...THE HEAVIEST SNOW
BANDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SET UP OVER CENTRAL SUFFOLK COUNTY
NORTHWARD INTO NEW LONDON...MIDDLESEX AND EASTERN NEW HAVEN
COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPANDED WINTER STORM WARNING TO NEW HAVEN COUNTY EARLIER...AND
ALSO INCREASED TOTALS WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE AS BOTH LIFT AND DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ARE MAXIMIZED.

WITH NE WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDS ARE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FORKS AND COASTAL SE CT. THE COMBO
OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW COULD ALSO RESULT IN DOWNED TREES
AND POWER LINES.

FARTHER WEST...SNOW SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH LIFT
GENERATED A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK OVER INTERIOR PA/NY.
THESE AREAS SHOULD SEE A GENERAL 1-3 OR 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL...AND
EXPANDED WINTER WX ADVY WESTWARD TO COVER ALL BUT ORANGE AND
WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTIES.

TEMPS AFTER SNOW BEGINS WILL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING...THEN BEGIN TO
SLOWLY FALL THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STEADY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. AS AN UPPER TROUGH
TRACKS EAST...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...AND BRING LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND W FROM THIS OFFSHORE LOW...AND COULD
BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW JUST TO ITS NORTH.
HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL SET UP ATTM...AND BEARS
WATCHING ESPECIALLY FOR NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PLUS LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING DRY ADIABATIC AT TIMES WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 500FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD SO ALL SNOW IS FORECAST. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL BE NEEDED FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH SUPERBLEND NUMBERS...SO
DROPPED THEM DOWN A DEGREE FOR NOW. FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
MAINLY LIGHT AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ON WED.

A FIRST WAVE OF COLDER AIR COMES IN ON THU. VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AGAIN SO ANY MOISTURE IN THE AREA SHOULD BE SQUEEZED
OUT WITH MORE LIGHT SNOW. SNOW CHANCES LESSEN ON FRI AT THIS TIME
WITH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXITING THE AREA. THE ARCTIC FRONT
LOOKS TO BE FRI NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR A FRIGID WEEKEND.
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SAT...THEN DRY ON SUN WITH A
1040S HI BUILDING IN FROM THE W.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PASS TO THE
EAST TODAY.

ANY LINGERING INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM EAST
TO WEST AS SNOW MOVES IN. THERE WILL BE A FINE LINE AND SHARP
GRADIENT FROM THE LIGHTER SNOW AND HEAVIER SNOW...BUT AT THIS
TIME...WOULD EXPECT TERMINALS EAST OF NYC METRO TO EXPERIENCE THE
BRUNT OF THE STORM/SNOW.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN LIGHT SNOW FROM E TO
W THROUGH AROUND 14Z FOR CITY TERMINALS...AND THEN TO IFR FROM E
TO W THROUGH MIDDAY.

ALSO...AT KGON/KISP...EXPECT LIFR AFTER 13Z THROUGH 19-20Z WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIFR AT CITY
TERMINALS AND KBDR. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AT CITY
TERMINALS AROUND 20Z-21Z.

GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE NE/N THIS MORNING. GUSTS OF 20-30
KT ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING...AND PEAK GUSTS UP TO 35 KT POSSIBLE
AT COASTAL TERMINALS. EXCEPTION IS AT KSWF WHERE GUSTS TO ONLY
AROUND 20 KT ARE FORECAST. GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
AROUND/AFTER 20Z.

FOR TONIGHT...NE WINDS LIGHTEN. MVFR SHOULD PREVAILS. ON AND OFF
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

LIKELY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF:
AROUND 1 INCH FOR KSWF.
1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS KEWR/KTEB.
2 TO 3 INCHES FOR KLGA/KJFK
2 TO 5 INCHES FOR KHPN/KBDR.
4 TO 8 INCHES FOR KISP/KGON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR TO IFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO
AS SNOW APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. SNOW ACCUM OF 2 TO 3 INCHES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR TO IFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO
AS SNOW APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. SNOW ACCUM OF 2 TO 3 INCHES.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR IS POSSIBLE IF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW MOVES
IN FROM THE EAST. SNOW ACCUM OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR IS POSSIBLE IF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW MOVES
IN FROM THE EAST. SNOW ACCUM OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR TO IFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO
AS SNOW APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. SNOW ACCUM OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IFR TO LIFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO
AS HEAVIER SNOW APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. SNOW ACCUM OF AROUND 4 TO 8
INCHES. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN INTERMITTENT SNOW.
N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN W-NW
WINDS G15-25 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATO-CUMULUS AND FLURRIES. W-NW WINDS G15-25KT
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY.
EXPECT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS ON THE OCEAN...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND BAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ON NY HARBOR...WESTERN
LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.

A FEW GUSTS TO STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ON EASTERN OCEAN
WATERS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
ALSO...A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO GALES.

WINDS DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AS LOW PRES DEPARTS.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN HIGH...AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE SEAS TO SETTLE...AT LEAST BACK TO SUB-SCA LEVELS.

HEADLINES FOR THE GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN UNCHANGED.

SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TUE-SAT. PERIODS OF SCA LEVEL WINDS
LIKELY IN THE TUE-SAT PERIOD ELSEWHERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF WILL RANGE FROM 1/10-1/4 INCH WEST OF THE
HUDSON...TO 1/4-1/2 INCH NYC AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND/CT...TO
1/2-3/4 INCH EASTERN LONG ISLAND/CT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
AS SNOW...SO NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS THEN LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AT THIS TIME AND ALL IN
THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. NEW MOON TODAY...AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES
WILL AFFECT THE REGION.

AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SE OF THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
RESULT IN STRONG NE/N WINDS. BASED ON A TRACK OF INTENSIFYING LOW
THAT SHOULD BE SE OF THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK AND COLD AIR
DAMMING SIGNATURE...WOULD EXPECT WINDS TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE N
THAN NE. THIS SHOULD FAVOR THE LOWER SURGE GUIDANCE FOR THE MORNING
AND NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES...WHICH WILL KEEP FLOODING MINOR AND
LIMITED TO THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCALES. ISOLATED MODERATE
FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOST VULNERABLE SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY. DUE TO THE LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TONIGHT AND LIGHTENING
WINDS...WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER...WITH MINOR FLOODING
MAINLY LIMITED TO THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND/NY AND ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND ADJACENT TO WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.

AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES...WINDS SHOULD VEER
MORE TO THE NE AS ADDITIONAL WAVE/S OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND MULTI-TIDAL
CYCLE NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL MINOR
FLOODING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING IN THE SOUTH SHORE BAY AREAS TUESDAY. SURGE SHOULD
DECREASE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT LINGERING
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY INT HE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS AREAS.

HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL ONCE AGAIN PRESENT A MODERATE TO
HIGH THREAT FOR AREAS OF DUNE TOE EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE
ISLAND. THIS IS BASED ON MODELED IMPACTS OF GALE CENTER FROM THE
USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ006>008-010>012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005-
     009.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ068>075-176>179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ074-
     075-080-081-178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071-073-078-177.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ080-081-178-
     179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ075-080-178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ078-177.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ004-
     006-103>108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ006-
     106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 081141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
641 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY...
GOING FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO
WRAP UP AND MOVE WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE NET RESULT FOR
THE NORTH COUNTY IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THAT WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS I DID DELAY THE
INCREASE IN OUR CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW BY AN HOUR OR SO BUT
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS GOOD TO GO FOR THE DAY.
HOPE YOU ENJOY YOUR MONDAY!

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERED
LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY
OVER THE VT/MASS BORDER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z
MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN AFTER 22Z DOWN TO 2 MILES AT RUT AND AFTER 00Z AT MPV WHERE I
KEPT THE VSBY STILL MVFR. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT
BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 081141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
641 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY...
GOING FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO
WRAP UP AND MOVE WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE NET RESULT FOR
THE NORTH COUNTY IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THAT WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS I DID DELAY THE
INCREASE IN OUR CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW BY AN HOUR OR SO BUT
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS GOOD TO GO FOR THE DAY.
HOPE YOU ENJOY YOUR MONDAY!

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERED
LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY
OVER THE VT/MASS BORDER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z
MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN AFTER 22Z DOWN TO 2 MILES AT RUT AND AFTER 00Z AT MPV WHERE I
KEPT THE VSBY STILL MVFR. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT
BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 081141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
641 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY...
GOING FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO
WRAP UP AND MOVE WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE NET RESULT FOR
THE NORTH COUNTY IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THAT WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS I DID DELAY THE
INCREASE IN OUR CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW BY AN HOUR OR SO BUT
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS GOOD TO GO FOR THE DAY.
HOPE YOU ENJOY YOUR MONDAY!

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET
MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL
LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS
SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERED
LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY
OVER THE VT/MASS BORDER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z
MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
IN AFTER 22Z DOWN TO 2 MILES AT RUT AND AFTER 00Z AT MPV WHERE I
KEPT THE VSBY STILL MVFR. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT
BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL



000
FXUS61 KBUF 081139
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
639 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WHILE THESE FEATURES WILL EVENTUALLY GENERATE SOME
SNOW FOR US...IT WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THE STORMS
WILL MERGE INTO A COMPLEX SYSTEM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING
MORE NUISANCE SNOW IN THE PROCESS. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS
WEEK...ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH COLDER
AIR...INCLUDING SOME FRIGID ARCTIC AIR FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SFC AND UPPER AIR MAPS ARE `BUSY` THIS MORNING AS A COMPLEX
WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
LETS START WITH THE MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM...THAT BEING THE COASTAL
STORM WELL OFF VIRGINIA. THIS FEATURE...WHILE MAKING NEWS HEADLINES
FOR ITS EFFECTS ON THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON OUR REGION. IT WILL ATTEMPT TO THROW SOME ATLANTIC BASED
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...BUT AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ADIRONDACKS WILL GENERALLY
DOWNSLOPE INTO THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY AND FURTHER CUT BACK ON ANY
LIGHT SNOW THAT DOES MAKE IT THAT FAR INTO OUR REGION.

THE SECOND STORM ON THE MAPS THIS MORNING IS AN EXPANSIVE BUT
OTHERWISE UNIMPRESSIVE LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT FIRST
GLANCE...ONE COULD GET EXCITED ABOUT THE SATELLITE IMAGES AND
SYNOPTIC MAPS OF THIS FEATURE...BUT WITH A LITTLE DIGGING ONE CAN
SEE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS FAR FROM THREATENING. WHILE THIS STORM
SYSTEM IS ONLY A DAY OR SO OLD...IT HAS ALREADY OCCLUDED AND IS
BARELY AT A 1000MB. AS THE LAST OF A PAIR OF VERY VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVES DIG INTO THE BASE OF ITS SUPPORTING LONGWAVE TROUGH...
THE BROAD STORM SYSTEM WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...THERE WILL STILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC LIFT. MORE ON THIS IN A MOMENT.

BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEMS DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL BE A
SFC BASED RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN QUEBEC AND THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THIS RIDGING WILL HELP
TO KEEP THE MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA PCPN FREE TODAY...
PARTICULARLY SITES EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. FOR THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES...CONTINUING BACKING OF THE LOW LEVELS WINDS DOWNSTREAM
OF THE DIGGING AND PROGRESSIVELY MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL FURTHER DETER PCPN FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION
FROM OHIO. HAVE CONTINUED THE FORECAST TREND OF BACKING OFF ON THE
DAYTIME POPS...WITH ONLY SLGT/LOW CHC POPS BEING FOUND ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE WRN COUNTIES. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY ONLY. THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THE PCPN WILL BE 100M HGT
FALLS AND A PERSISTENT MID-UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW.

IN TERMS OF P-TYPE...WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ROOM AT CLOUD
LEVEL FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH...THE AIR IN THE LOWEST COUPLE
THOUSAND FEET SHOULD BE TOO `WARM` TO SUPPORT JUST PLAIN SNOW. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN INSTEAD...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A LITTLE
WET SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF WILL BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH.

DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 40 EAST OF LK ONT.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL STALL IN THE VCNTY OF
NORTHERN OHIO WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERNMOST ONTARIO. MINIMAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEW YORK DURING
THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT...BUT WHILE THIS SHOULD HELP TO MAKE LIGHT
PCPN MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE REGION...IT WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS WHOLE SYSTEM SO QPF
(IE. SNOWFALL) WILL NOT BE MINIMAL. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS
SOMEWHAT BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF LIFT. IN FACT...PARTS OF THE FINGER
LAKES REGION MAY NOT `MEASURE` AS THAT AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING. THE LOWEST POPS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THAT PARTICULAR AREA.

ANY MIXED PCPN EARLY IN THE EVENING SHOULD CHANGE TO JUST LIGHT SNOW
AS THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS COOL THROUGH THE 30S...AND IN
SOME AREAS...INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL UNFOLD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WILL
OPEN UP INTO A BROAD TROUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH NUMEROUS LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. EACH ONE OF THESE WEAK WAVES WILL PERIODICALLY BRING WEAK
ASCENT. AT THE SURFACE...AN INITIAL PARENT LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF LAKE HURON TUESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SECONDARY COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL PARENT LOW WILL SLOWLY DISSOLVE INTO A
WEST/EAST ORIENTED INVERTED TROUGH WHICH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WHAT REMAINS
OF THE ORIGINAL LOW WILL DRIFT EAST ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY.

ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE AND PERIODIC WEAK LIFT WILL MAINTAIN PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
DIFFUSE AND SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FORCING WILL MAKE TIMING THE
PERIODS OF BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION DIFFICULT...BUT IN GENERAL
EXPECT MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLDER AIR BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND ALLOWS LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO COME INTO PLAY.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON TUESDAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE OPENING MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND WEAK SURFACE LOW. FORCING
AND MOISTURE IS WEAKEST ON TUESDAY...SO EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO
BE A HALF INCH OR LESS IN MOST AREAS WITH UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE
HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID OR EVEN UPPER
30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER LIMIT ACCUMULATION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE ORIGINAL LOW RIPPLES EAST ALONG
THE INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOULD PICK UP IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND THE COLD AIR GROWS DEEPER...ALLOWING FOR
MORE LAKE ENHANCEMENT. EXPECT AN INCH OR SO ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NY
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY. LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF
LAKE ERIE AND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING SEVERAL INCHES TO
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND BOSTON HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND STEADILY COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID TO UPPER 20S ON THE HILLS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WHILE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER ALIGNED NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER LAKES WHILE MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD BRING THE BEST SETUP FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY BRING SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH AN ADDED
BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS
EXPECT JUST MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTABLY COLDER...WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST AREAS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2-4 INCHES IN MOST AREAS WITH
JUST VERY MINOR AMOUNTS EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD ADDING UP TO MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS OVER TIME. AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE WITH ADDED LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. 3 DAY TOTALS MAY
REACH 8-12 INCHES ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER IF
FLOW ALIGNS FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME. CONSIDERED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FOR THE
UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW DIRECTION AND THUS THE EFFICIENCY OF UPSLOPE FLOW.
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LAKE ENHANCEMENT TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO BRING HIGHER TOTALS FROM
ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL MAINTAIN SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LATER FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE
MAINTAINED EAST OF THE LAKES AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF MAY BRING
A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING BY FAR THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION NEXT WEEKEND. IN
FACT...SEVERAL MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS AND
PREVIOUS 12Z ECMWF DROP 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -30C ACROSS
WESTERN NY ON SATURDAY. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST
850MB TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF
FEBRUARY IS -28C.

BACK TRAJECTORIES USING THE GEFS SHOWS THAT THE FRIGID AIR WILL BE
COMING FROM THE BAFFIN ISLAND/CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO REGION. H85 TEMPS
IN THAT PARTICULAR REGION WERE NEAR -25C AS OF LAST EVENING...AND
ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AS THIS AIRMASS MOVES SOUTHWARDS...THE
COLD AIR WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY PASSES OVER FROZEN HUDSON
BAY.

GIVEN THE EXTREME AIRMASS AND GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
DAY...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES FURTHER WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS SATURDAY AND MINS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE VERIFIES TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE ZERO FOR
MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIND
MAY PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BUT AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE
ALSO VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS DESPITE THE STRONG
INSTABILITY.

THE COLD STAYS THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR RETREATS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS ALL OF WRN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK THIS MORNING...AS WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN NEW YORK.

WHILE CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN DURING THE COURSE
OF THE DAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA (CHAUTAUQUA CO) LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH...SO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KJHW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY NIGHTFALL.

TONIGHT...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO LOWERING CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW...SO VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH TIME.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SRN TIER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...MVFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK RIDGING FOUND BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL KEEP MODERATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPIEST CONDITIONS IN CANADIAN WATERS.

AS A LARGE STORM MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL FRESHEN A
BIT. CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SCA ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE WESTERN
HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT AGAIN...THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WAVES WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE LAKE.

FOR TUESDAY...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE
ROUGH WATERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...INCLUDING THE
NY NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 081139
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
639 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WHILE THESE FEATURES WILL EVENTUALLY GENERATE SOME
SNOW FOR US...IT WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THE STORMS
WILL MERGE INTO A COMPLEX SYSTEM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING
MORE NUISANCE SNOW IN THE PROCESS. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS
WEEK...ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH COLDER
AIR...INCLUDING SOME FRIGID ARCTIC AIR FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SFC AND UPPER AIR MAPS ARE `BUSY` THIS MORNING AS A COMPLEX
WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
LETS START WITH THE MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM...THAT BEING THE COASTAL
STORM WELL OFF VIRGINIA. THIS FEATURE...WHILE MAKING NEWS HEADLINES
FOR ITS EFFECTS ON THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON OUR REGION. IT WILL ATTEMPT TO THROW SOME ATLANTIC BASED
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...BUT AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ADIRONDACKS WILL GENERALLY
DOWNSLOPE INTO THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY AND FURTHER CUT BACK ON ANY
LIGHT SNOW THAT DOES MAKE IT THAT FAR INTO OUR REGION.

THE SECOND STORM ON THE MAPS THIS MORNING IS AN EXPANSIVE BUT
OTHERWISE UNIMPRESSIVE LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT FIRST
GLANCE...ONE COULD GET EXCITED ABOUT THE SATELLITE IMAGES AND
SYNOPTIC MAPS OF THIS FEATURE...BUT WITH A LITTLE DIGGING ONE CAN
SEE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS FAR FROM THREATENING. WHILE THIS STORM
SYSTEM IS ONLY A DAY OR SO OLD...IT HAS ALREADY OCCLUDED AND IS
BARELY AT A 1000MB. AS THE LAST OF A PAIR OF VERY VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVES DIG INTO THE BASE OF ITS SUPPORTING LONGWAVE TROUGH...
THE BROAD STORM SYSTEM WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...THERE WILL STILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC LIFT. MORE ON THIS IN A MOMENT.

BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEMS DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL BE A
SFC BASED RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN QUEBEC AND THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THIS RIDGING WILL HELP
TO KEEP THE MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA PCPN FREE TODAY...
PARTICULARLY SITES EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. FOR THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES...CONTINUING BACKING OF THE LOW LEVELS WINDS DOWNSTREAM
OF THE DIGGING AND PROGRESSIVELY MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL FURTHER DETER PCPN FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION
FROM OHIO. HAVE CONTINUED THE FORECAST TREND OF BACKING OFF ON THE
DAYTIME POPS...WITH ONLY SLGT/LOW CHC POPS BEING FOUND ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE WRN COUNTIES. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY ONLY. THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THE PCPN WILL BE 100M HGT
FALLS AND A PERSISTENT MID-UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW.

IN TERMS OF P-TYPE...WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ROOM AT CLOUD
LEVEL FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH...THE AIR IN THE LOWEST COUPLE
THOUSAND FEET SHOULD BE TOO `WARM` TO SUPPORT JUST PLAIN SNOW. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN INSTEAD...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A LITTLE
WET SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF WILL BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH.

DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 40 EAST OF LK ONT.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL STALL IN THE VCNTY OF
NORTHERN OHIO WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERNMOST ONTARIO. MINIMAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEW YORK DURING
THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT...BUT WHILE THIS SHOULD HELP TO MAKE LIGHT
PCPN MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE REGION...IT WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS WHOLE SYSTEM SO QPF
(IE. SNOWFALL) WILL NOT BE MINIMAL. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS
SOMEWHAT BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF LIFT. IN FACT...PARTS OF THE FINGER
LAKES REGION MAY NOT `MEASURE` AS THAT AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING. THE LOWEST POPS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THAT PARTICULAR AREA.

ANY MIXED PCPN EARLY IN THE EVENING SHOULD CHANGE TO JUST LIGHT SNOW
AS THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS COOL THROUGH THE 30S...AND IN
SOME AREAS...INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL UNFOLD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WILL
OPEN UP INTO A BROAD TROUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH NUMEROUS LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. EACH ONE OF THESE WEAK WAVES WILL PERIODICALLY BRING WEAK
ASCENT. AT THE SURFACE...AN INITIAL PARENT LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF LAKE HURON TUESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SECONDARY COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL PARENT LOW WILL SLOWLY DISSOLVE INTO A
WEST/EAST ORIENTED INVERTED TROUGH WHICH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WHAT REMAINS
OF THE ORIGINAL LOW WILL DRIFT EAST ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY.

ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE AND PERIODIC WEAK LIFT WILL MAINTAIN PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
DIFFUSE AND SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FORCING WILL MAKE TIMING THE
PERIODS OF BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION DIFFICULT...BUT IN GENERAL
EXPECT MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLDER AIR BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND ALLOWS LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO COME INTO PLAY.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON TUESDAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE OPENING MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND WEAK SURFACE LOW. FORCING
AND MOISTURE IS WEAKEST ON TUESDAY...SO EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO
BE A HALF INCH OR LESS IN MOST AREAS WITH UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE
HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID OR EVEN UPPER
30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER LIMIT ACCUMULATION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE ORIGINAL LOW RIPPLES EAST ALONG
THE INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOULD PICK UP IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND THE COLD AIR GROWS DEEPER...ALLOWING FOR
MORE LAKE ENHANCEMENT. EXPECT AN INCH OR SO ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NY
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY. LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF
LAKE ERIE AND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING SEVERAL INCHES TO
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND BOSTON HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND STEADILY COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID TO UPPER 20S ON THE HILLS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WHILE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER ALIGNED NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER LAKES WHILE MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD BRING THE BEST SETUP FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY BRING SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH AN ADDED
BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS
EXPECT JUST MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTABLY COLDER...WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST AREAS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2-4 INCHES IN MOST AREAS WITH
JUST VERY MINOR AMOUNTS EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD ADDING UP TO MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS OVER TIME. AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE WITH ADDED LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. 3 DAY TOTALS MAY
REACH 8-12 INCHES ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER IF
FLOW ALIGNS FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME. CONSIDERED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FOR THE
UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW DIRECTION AND THUS THE EFFICIENCY OF UPSLOPE FLOW.
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LAKE ENHANCEMENT TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO BRING HIGHER TOTALS FROM
ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL MAINTAIN SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LATER FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE
MAINTAINED EAST OF THE LAKES AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF MAY BRING
A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING BY FAR THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION NEXT WEEKEND. IN
FACT...SEVERAL MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS AND
PREVIOUS 12Z ECMWF DROP 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -30C ACROSS
WESTERN NY ON SATURDAY. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST
850MB TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF
FEBRUARY IS -28C.

BACK TRAJECTORIES USING THE GEFS SHOWS THAT THE FRIGID AIR WILL BE
COMING FROM THE BAFFIN ISLAND/CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO REGION. H85 TEMPS
IN THAT PARTICULAR REGION WERE NEAR -25C AS OF LAST EVENING...AND
ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AS THIS AIRMASS MOVES SOUTHWARDS...THE
COLD AIR WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY PASSES OVER FROZEN HUDSON
BAY.

GIVEN THE EXTREME AIRMASS AND GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
DAY...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES FURTHER WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS SATURDAY AND MINS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE VERIFIES TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE ZERO FOR
MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIND
MAY PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BUT AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE
ALSO VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS DESPITE THE STRONG
INSTABILITY.

THE COLD STAYS THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR RETREATS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS ALL OF WRN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK THIS MORNING...AS WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN NEW YORK.

WHILE CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN DURING THE COURSE
OF THE DAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA (CHAUTAUQUA CO) LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH...SO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KJHW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY NIGHTFALL.

TONIGHT...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO LOWERING CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW...SO VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH TIME.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SRN TIER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...MVFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK RIDGING FOUND BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL KEEP MODERATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPIEST CONDITIONS IN CANADIAN WATERS.

AS A LARGE STORM MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL FRESHEN A
BIT. CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SCA ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE WESTERN
HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT AGAIN...THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WAVES WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE LAKE.

FOR TUESDAY...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE
ROUGH WATERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...INCLUDING THE
NY NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KALY 081138
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
638 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 638 AM EST...A POWERFUL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
WELL EAST OF THE VIRGINA COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA...AROUND
980 MB...IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM IS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND THE CLOUDS EXTEND ALL THE WAY UP INTO EASTERN
UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...SKIES ARE
COMPLETELY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A VEIL OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.

REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS THE BACKEDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOW REACHING INTO EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SOUTHEAST
CT...AND FAR SOUTHERN RI/MASS. DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND WESTWARD...AND REACH INTO NW CT BY THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SRN VT BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS/LOW
20S...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...WE EXPECT THE COLUMN TO SATURATE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW
LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR. BY LATE IN THE DAY...THE 10Z 3KM HRRR
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL HAVE ACCUMULATED IN THE NW
CT BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SNOWFALL FOR
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT
CLOSES OFF ALOFT AND STARTS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. AS A
RESULT...THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DIRECT SOME OF THE COASTAL
MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING HOURS IN THESE LOCATIONS.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP IN
PLACE. MAX TEMPS ONLY LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS MAY WIND UP BEING IN THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS LATER TODAY. ALSO...N-NE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO THE STRONG STORM
OFFSHORE...WITH A FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS AT TIMES...MAINLY
OVER NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS WELL OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXPANDING EASTWARD...THE MODELS SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAKING FOR A STORM TOTAL /TODAY INTO TONIGHT/ OF A
COATING TO TWO INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL LOOK TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE NIGHT...AS
MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED DUE TO THE DEPARTING COASTAL WAVE. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS...EXCEPT SOME TEENS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS JUST A COATING FOR MOST AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY HELP SPAWN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRY TO DEVELOP
BY TUESDAY EVENING OFF THE COAST...BUT THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
TOO FAR SOUTH/EAST TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO BRING THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NJ...AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF NY/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER WILL JUST BE CLOUDY SKIES WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES/PASSING SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ON TUESDAY...AND 20S
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY INTO WED
NIGHT...AS THE BROAD AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN
PLACE...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITHOUT ANY STRONG FORCING AROUND AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST A COATING TO AN INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON WED WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S...BUT COLDER TEMPS MOVING IN ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW MINS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOW
20S FOR WED NIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY START TO SET UP OFF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE WED NIGHT
AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW MAY KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WEST OF
OUR AREA ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
OPENING THE DOOR TO VERY COLD AIR. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE TO OUR FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW MOVES BEFORE HEADING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COLDER EACH DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
A PORTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH SINGLE DIGITS READINGS INTO
THE TEENS EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY.  THE COLDEST WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL
HEADLINES...BOTH ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE
WEEKEND...SO HAVE THE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...11Z...HAS A COASTAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WITH PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ABOUT 300 SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE TAF SITES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MID/LATE MORNING AT KPSF AND KPOU AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL. AS THE SNOW STARTS EXPECTING MVFR WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO IFR DUE TO VISIBILITY AS THE SNOW INTENSITY INCREASES. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SNOW LIGHTENS
UP OR EVEN ENDS.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS....HOWEVER
SOME STRONGER WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT GENERALLY LOOK LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN
INCH. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THESE WILL AMOUNTS TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC
SIGNIFICANCE.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING BY WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 081138
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
638 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 638 AM EST...A POWERFUL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
WELL EAST OF THE VIRGINA COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA...AROUND
980 MB...IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM IS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND THE CLOUDS EXTEND ALL THE WAY UP INTO EASTERN
UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...SKIES ARE
COMPLETELY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A VEIL OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.

REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS THE BACKEDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOW REACHING INTO EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SOUTHEAST
CT...AND FAR SOUTHERN RI/MASS. DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND WESTWARD...AND REACH INTO NW CT BY THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SRN VT BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS/LOW
20S...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...WE EXPECT THE COLUMN TO SATURATE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW
LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR. BY LATE IN THE DAY...THE 10Z 3KM HRRR
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL HAVE ACCUMULATED IN THE NW
CT BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SNOWFALL FOR
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT
CLOSES OFF ALOFT AND STARTS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. AS A
RESULT...THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DIRECT SOME OF THE COASTAL
MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING HOURS IN THESE LOCATIONS.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP IN
PLACE. MAX TEMPS ONLY LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS MAY WIND UP BEING IN THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS LATER TODAY. ALSO...N-NE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO THE STRONG STORM
OFFSHORE...WITH A FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS AT TIMES...MAINLY
OVER NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS WELL OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXPANDING EASTWARD...THE MODELS SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAKING FOR A STORM TOTAL /TODAY INTO TONIGHT/ OF A
COATING TO TWO INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL LOOK TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE NIGHT...AS
MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED DUE TO THE DEPARTING COASTAL WAVE. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS...EXCEPT SOME TEENS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS JUST A COATING FOR MOST AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY HELP SPAWN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRY TO DEVELOP
BY TUESDAY EVENING OFF THE COAST...BUT THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
TOO FAR SOUTH/EAST TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO BRING THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NJ...AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF NY/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER WILL JUST BE CLOUDY SKIES WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES/PASSING SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ON TUESDAY...AND 20S
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY INTO WED
NIGHT...AS THE BROAD AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN
PLACE...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITHOUT ANY STRONG FORCING AROUND AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST A COATING TO AN INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON WED WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S...BUT COLDER TEMPS MOVING IN ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW MINS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOW
20S FOR WED NIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY START TO SET UP OFF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE WED NIGHT
AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW MAY KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WEST OF
OUR AREA ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
OPENING THE DOOR TO VERY COLD AIR. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE TO OUR FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW MOVES BEFORE HEADING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COLDER EACH DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
A PORTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH SINGLE DIGITS READINGS INTO
THE TEENS EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY.  THE COLDEST WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL
HEADLINES...BOTH ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE
WEEKEND...SO HAVE THE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...11Z...HAS A COASTAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WITH PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ABOUT 300 SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE TAF SITES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MID/LATE MORNING AT KPSF AND KPOU AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL. AS THE SNOW STARTS EXPECTING MVFR WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO IFR DUE TO VISIBILITY AS THE SNOW INTENSITY INCREASES. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SNOW LIGHTENS
UP OR EVEN ENDS.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS....HOWEVER
SOME STRONGER WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT GENERALLY LOOK LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN
INCH. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THESE WILL AMOUNTS TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC
SIGNIFICANCE.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING BY WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 081138
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
638 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 638 AM EST...A POWERFUL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
WELL EAST OF THE VIRGINA COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA...AROUND
980 MB...IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM IS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND THE CLOUDS EXTEND ALL THE WAY UP INTO EASTERN
UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...SKIES ARE
COMPLETELY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A VEIL OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.

REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS THE BACKEDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOW REACHING INTO EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SOUTHEAST
CT...AND FAR SOUTHERN RI/MASS. DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND WESTWARD...AND REACH INTO NW CT BY THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SRN VT BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS/LOW
20S...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...WE EXPECT THE COLUMN TO SATURATE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW
LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR. BY LATE IN THE DAY...THE 10Z 3KM HRRR
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL HAVE ACCUMULATED IN THE NW
CT BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SNOWFALL FOR
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT
CLOSES OFF ALOFT AND STARTS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. AS A
RESULT...THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DIRECT SOME OF THE COASTAL
MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING HOURS IN THESE LOCATIONS.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP IN
PLACE. MAX TEMPS ONLY LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS MAY WIND UP BEING IN THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS LATER TODAY. ALSO...N-NE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO THE STRONG STORM
OFFSHORE...WITH A FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS AT TIMES...MAINLY
OVER NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS WELL OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXPANDING EASTWARD...THE MODELS SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAKING FOR A STORM TOTAL /TODAY INTO TONIGHT/ OF A
COATING TO TWO INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL LOOK TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE NIGHT...AS
MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED DUE TO THE DEPARTING COASTAL WAVE. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS...EXCEPT SOME TEENS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS JUST A COATING FOR MOST AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY HELP SPAWN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRY TO DEVELOP
BY TUESDAY EVENING OFF THE COAST...BUT THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
TOO FAR SOUTH/EAST TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO BRING THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NJ...AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF NY/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER WILL JUST BE CLOUDY SKIES WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES/PASSING SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ON TUESDAY...AND 20S
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY INTO WED
NIGHT...AS THE BROAD AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN
PLACE...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITHOUT ANY STRONG FORCING AROUND AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST A COATING TO AN INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON WED WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S...BUT COLDER TEMPS MOVING IN ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW MINS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOW
20S FOR WED NIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY START TO SET UP OFF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE WED NIGHT
AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW MAY KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WEST OF
OUR AREA ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
OPENING THE DOOR TO VERY COLD AIR. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE TO OUR FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW MOVES BEFORE HEADING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COLDER EACH DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
A PORTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH SINGLE DIGITS READINGS INTO
THE TEENS EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY.  THE COLDEST WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL
HEADLINES...BOTH ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE
WEEKEND...SO HAVE THE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...11Z...HAS A COASTAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WITH PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ABOUT 300 SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE TAF SITES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MID/LATE MORNING AT KPSF AND KPOU AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL. AS THE SNOW STARTS EXPECTING MVFR WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO IFR DUE TO VISIBILITY AS THE SNOW INTENSITY INCREASES. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SNOW LIGHTENS
UP OR EVEN ENDS.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS....HOWEVER
SOME STRONGER WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT GENERALLY LOOK LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN
INCH. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THESE WILL AMOUNTS TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC
SIGNIFICANCE.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING BY WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBGM 081131
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
631 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SPREAD
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NY AND PA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY, AS MUCH COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
220 AM UPDATE...
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN IS FORECAST TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE STILL ABNORMALLY WARM, WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT 40 DEGREES IN MANY LOCALES.
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
225 AM UPDATE...

AS THE GREAT LAKES CYCLONE DROPS INTO WESTERN NY AND PA, LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. WE CONTINUE TO THINK THE
SNOW WILL BE INSTABILITY-BASED, AS THE UL TROF SETS UP SHOP OVER
NY AND PA AND POURS COOLER AIR INTO THE MID AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE.

A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY
NIGHT AND LATE WEDNESDAY.

COLDER 925-850MB AIR POURS ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL.
AT THIS VERY PRELIMINARY POINT, IT APPEARS THE FLOW FAVORS A LAKE
BAND OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THEN SHIFTS THE BAND TOWARD ONONDAGA/MADISON IN THE SECOND HALF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. BEST CHANCE FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW STILL LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE A WELL ALIGNED 300
FLOW WILL OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD WITH T85 AROUND -20C. THIS
COULD MEAN SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECTS SNOWS FOR PARTS OF ONONDAGA,
MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTIES. THIS WEEKEND STILL LOOKS VERY COLD
WITH POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON WITH T85
DOWN AROUND -25C.

PREVIOUS DISC...
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A MUCH COLDER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 500 MB LOW MOVES SE FROM ONTARIO
THROUGH QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND. MAIN WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DUE TO W/NW FLOW OF VERY COLD AIR OVER WARMER LAKES.
INITIALIZED FORECAST WITH SUPERBLEND BUT BEEFED UP POPS DUE TO
EXPECTED LAKE EFFECT.

TO START THE PERIOD, COLDER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING SFC LOW WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OCCURRING ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENHANCED BY THE LAKES. AT THIS POINT,
LAKE EFFECT LIKELY WON`T BE TOO ORGANIZED AND STRONG DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER WINDS BECOME BETTER
ALIGNED THURSDAY FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF ONONDAGA/MADISON/ONEIDA COUNTIES WITH REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL NY ALSO SEEING SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW WINDS AND COLD TEMPS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 20 TO 25 RANGE.

THE COLD CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT CONTINUING AND ALSO
BEING ENHANCED BY A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON LOOKS TO BE
MOVING IN WITH INDICATIONS BEING FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND ONLY IN
THE TEENS ALONG WITH SUBZERO LOWS POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS. EXPECT
SOME LAKE EFFECT INTO SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND LOOKING TO BECOME MAINLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR TODAY, MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER. BY 00Z CIGS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 4K FT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 06Z DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS.

E/SE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 5-8 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE THRU FRI...PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 081019
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
519 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY
AND PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
THEN SPIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC
AIR MASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR SHOWS BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH H7-5
FRONTOGENESIS POISED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN SPREAD NW INTO MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S ALONG THE COAST AND IN NYC METRO...PRECIP COULD BE MIXED WITH
RAIN AT THE VERY ONSET...BUT THEN EVAPORATIVE/DYNAMIC COOLING FROM
ALOFT SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO SNOW. THE SNOW WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT...AND BASED ON RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP/HRRR...
THINK HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD MAKE IT FARTHER WEST INTO SOUTHERN CT
AND EXPANDED WINTER STORM WARNING TO NEW HAVEN COUNTY. WITH NE
WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FORKS AND COASTAL SE CT. THE COMBO OF STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY SNOW COULD ALSO RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

FARTHER WEST...SNOW SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH LIFT
GENERATED A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK OVER INTERIOR PA/NY.
THESE AREAS SHOULD SEE A GENERAL 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL...AND EXPANDED
WINTER WX ADVY WESTWARD TO COVER ALL BUT ORANGE AND WESTERN
PASSAIC COUNTIES.

TEMPS AFTER SNOW BEGINS WILL BE AROUND OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...THEN SLOWLY FALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE UPPER 20S
INLAND AND JUST BELOW FREEZING AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STEADY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. AS AN UPPER TROUGH
TRACKS EAST...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...AND BRING LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND W FROM THIS OFFSHORE LOW...AND COULD
BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW JUST TO ITS NORTH.
HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL SET UP ATTM...AND BEARS
WATCHING ESPECIALLY FOR NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PLUS LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING DRY ADIABATIC AT TIMES WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 500FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD SO ALL SNOW IS FORECAST. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL BE NEEDED FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH SUPERBLEND NUMBERS...SO
DROPPED THEM DOWN A DEGREE FOR NOW. FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
MAINLY LIGHT AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ON WED.

A FIRST WAVE OF COLDER AIR COMES IN ON THU. VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AGAIN SO ANY MOISTURE IN THE AREA SHOULD BE SQUEEZED
OUT WITH MORE LIGHT SNOW. SNOW CHANCES LESSEN ON FRI AT THIS TIME
WITH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXITING THE AREA. THE ARCTIC FRONT
LOOKS TO BE FRI NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR A FRIGID WEEKEND.
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SAT...THEN DRY ON SUN WITH A
1040S HI BUILDING IN FROM THE W.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PASS TO THE
EAST TODAY.

INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM EAST TO WEST AS
SNOW MOVES IN. THERE WILL BE A FINE LINE AND SHARP GRADIENT FROM
THE LIGHTER SNOW AND HEAVIER SNOW...BUT AT THIS TIME...WOULD
EXPECT TERMINALS EAST OF NYC METRO TO EXPERIENCE THE BRUNT OF
THE STORM/SNOW.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN LIGHT SNOW FROM E TO
W THROUGH AROUND 13Z FOR CITY TERMINALS...AND THEN TO IFR FROM E TO
W THROUGH MIDDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KSWF...WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND NOON...WITH CURRENTLY NO IFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST THERE.

ALSO...AT KGON/KISP...EXPECT LIFR AFTER 12Z THROUGH 19-20Z WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIFR AT CITY
TERMINALS AND KBDR. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AT CITY
TERMINALS AROUND 20Z.

WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NE/N THIS MORNING. GUSTS OF
20-30 KT ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING...AND PEAK GUSTS UP TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS. EXCEPTION IS AT KSWF WHERE GUSTS TO
ONLY AROUND 15 KT ARE FORECAST. GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AROUND/AFTER 20Z.

LIKELY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF:
1 TO 2 INCHES FOR KSWF.
2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS KHPN/KEWR/KTEB.
2 TO 5 INCHES FOR KLGA/KJFK/KBDR.
4 TO 8 INCHES FOR KISP/KGON.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR TO IFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO
AS SNOW APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. SNOW ACCUM OF AROUND 3 INCHES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR TO IFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO
AS SNOW APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. SNOW ACCUM OF AROUND 3 INCHES.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR IS POSSIBLE IF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW MOVES
IN FROM THE EAST. SNOW ACCUM OF 2 TO 3 INCHES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR IS POSSIBLE IF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW MOVES
IN FROM THE EAST. SNOW ACCUM OF 2 TO 3 INCHES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR TO IFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO
AS SNOW APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. SNOW ACCUM OF AROUND 3 INCHES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF IFR TO LIFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO
AS HEAVIER SNOW APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. SNOW ACCUM OF AROUND 4 TO 8
INCHES. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN INTERMITTENT SNOW.
N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN W-NW
WINDS G15-25 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATO-CUMULUS AND FLURRIES. W-NW WINDS G15-25KT
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY.
EXPECT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS ON THE OCEAN...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND BAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ON NY HARBOR...WESTERN
LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.

A FEW GUSTS TO STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ON EASTERN OCEAN
WATERS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
ALSO...A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO GALES.

WINDS DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AS LOW PRES DEPARTS.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN HIGH...AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE SEAS TO SETTLE...AT LEAST BACK TO SUB-SCA LEVELS.

HEADLINES FOR THE GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN UNCHANGED.

SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TUE-SAT. PERIODS OF SCA LEVEL WINDS
LIKELY IN THE TUE-SAT PERIOD ELSEWHERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF WILL RANGE FROM 1/10-1/4 INCH WEST OF THE
HUDSON...TO 1/4-1/2 INCH NYC AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND/CT...TO
1/2-3/4 INCH EASTERN LONG ISLAND/CT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
AS SNOW...SO NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS THEN LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AT THIS TIME AND ALL IN
THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. NEW MOON TODAY...AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES
WILL AFFECT THE REGION.

AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SE OF THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
RESULT IN STRONG NE/N WINDS. BASED ON A TRACK OF INTENSIFYING LOW
THAT SHOULD BE SE OF THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK AND COLD AIR
DAMMING SIGNATURE...WOULD EXPECT WINDS TO BE BACKED MORE TO THE N
THAN NE. THIS SHOULD FAVOR THE LOWER SURGE GUIDANCE FOR THE MORNING
AND NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES...WHICH WILL KEEP FLOODING MINOR AND
LIMITED TO THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCALES. ISOLATED MODERATE
FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOST VULNERABLE SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY. DUE TO THE LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TONIGHT AND LIGHTENING
WINDS...WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER...WITH MINOR FLOODING
MAINLY LIMITED TO THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND/NY AND ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND ADJACENT TO WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.

AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES...WINDS SHOULD VEER
MORE TO THE NE AS ADDITIONAL WAVE/S OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE SPRING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND MULTI-TIDAL
CYCLE NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL FAVOR ADDITIONAL MINOR
FLOODING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING IN THE SOUTH SHORE BAY AREAS TUESDAY. SURGE SHOULD
DECREASE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT LINGERING
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY INT HE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS AREAS.

HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL ONCE AGAIN PRESENT A MODERATE TO
HIGH THREAT FOR AREAS OF DUNE TOE EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE
ISLAND. THIS IS BASED ON MODELED IMPACTS OF GALE CENTER FROM THE
USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ006>008-010>012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005-
     009.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ078>081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ068>075-176>179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ074-
     075-080-081-178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071-073-078-177.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ080-081-178-
     179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ075-080-178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ078-177.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ004-
     006-103>108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ006-
     106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MALOIT/PW
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW




000
FXUS61 KALY 080936
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
436 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 436 AM EST...A POWERFUL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE
AREA...AROUND 980 MB...IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING
AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AN
EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM IS SEEN ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE CLOUDS EXTEND ALL THE WAY UP INTO
EASTERN UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...SKIES
ARE COMPLETELY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A VEIL OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.

REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS THE BACKEDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OF
THIS SYSTEM JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG
ISLAND. THIS BAND OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARDS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND 06Z HRRR GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST
THIS BAND OF PRECIP WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARDS NW CT BY THE MID
MORNING HOURS...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HEAD NORTHEAST.
EVENTUALLY...LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SRN VT BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS WELL. WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS/LOW
20S...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...WE EXPECT THE COLUMN TO SATURATE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW
LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR. BY LATE IN THE DAY...3KM HRRR GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT 2-3 INCHES WILL HAVE ACCUMULATED IN THE NW CT BY THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SNOWFALL FOR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT
CLOSES OFF ALOFT AND STARTS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. AS A
RESULT...THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DIRECT SOME OF THE COASTAL
MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING HOURS IN THESE LOCATIONS.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP IN
PLACE. MAX TEMPS ONLY LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE REGION. N-NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OVER WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND DUE TO STRONG STORM OFFSHORE...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KTS AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS WELL OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXPANDING EASTWARD...THE MODELS SEEMS TO FOCUS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAKING FOR A STORM TOTAL /TODAY INTO TONIGHT/ OF A
COATING TO TWO INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL LOOK TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE NIGHT...AS
MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED DUE TO THE DEPARTING COASTAL WAVE. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS...EXCEPT SOME TEENS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS JUST A COATING FOR MOST AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY HELP SPAWN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRY TO DEVELOP
BY TUESDAY EVENING OFF THE COAST...BUT THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
TOO FAR SOUTH/EAST TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO BRING THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER
SOUTHERN NJ...AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF NY/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER WILL JUST BE CLOUDY SKIES WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES/PASSING SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ON TUESDAY...AND 20S
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY INTO WED
NIGHT...AS THE BROAD AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN
PLACE...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITHOUT ANY STRONG FORCING AROUND AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST A COATING TO AN INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. DAYTIME TEMPS ON WED WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S...BUT COLDER TEMPS MOVING IN ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW MINS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOW
20S FOR WED NIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY START TO SET UP OFF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE WED NIGHT
AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW MAY KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WEST OF
OUR AREA ACROSS CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A REMAINDER OF WHAT LAST
FEBRUARY FELT LIKE.

A CLOSED LOW WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
OPENING THE DOOR TO VERY COLD AIR. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE TO OUR FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW MOVES BEFORE HEADING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COLDER EACH DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
A PORTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH SINGLE DIGITS READINGS INTO
THE TEENS EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY.  THE COLDEST WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. ONLY LOOKING HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH WIND WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS TO LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL
HEADLINES...BOTH ADVISORY AND WARNING...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE
WEEKEND...SO HAVE THE THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL OCCUR. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...05Z...HAS A COASTAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 200
MILES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING TO
ITS NORTHEAST WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND CAPE COD. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 300 SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE
COD MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THIS ALL MEANS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND PORTIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THICKENING AND LOWER AFTER SUNRISE.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MID/LATE MORNING AT KPSF AND DURING THE AFTERNOON
AT KALB...KGFL AND KPOU. AS THE SNOW STARTS EXPECTING MVFR WITH CONDITIONS
LOWER TO IFR DUE TO VISIBILITY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT KPOU DURING THE EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT GENERALLY LOOK LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN
INCH. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THESE WILL AMOUNTS TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC
SIGNIFICANCE.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING BY WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 080920
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET MORNING TODAY
AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL
LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH CAROLINA AND A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK UP
THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS SPECTATORS
TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERS LATE IN
THE DAY. PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD
AS FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER
18Z MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH
WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH
AT BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 080920
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET MORNING TODAY
AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL
LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH CAROLINA AND A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK UP
THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS SPECTATORS
TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERS LATE IN
THE DAY. PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD
AS FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER
18Z MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH
WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH
AT BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL



000
FXUS61 KBTV 080920
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET MORNING TODAY
AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL
LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH CAROLINA AND A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK UP
THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS SPECTATORS
TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT
NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES
IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS
THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND
MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERS LATE IN
THE DAY. PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD
AS FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER
18Z MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH
WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH
AT BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 080852
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON
MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET MORNING TODAY
AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL
LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH CAROLINA AND A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK UP
THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS SPECTATORS
TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND.

THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER.

TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY
AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY
IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SUNDAY...A LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY 00Z TUESDAY...WHILE NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM
DIVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
UNPHASED...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED BACK FROM COASTAL TO
PRODUCE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS
OUR REGION...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION FROM 2500
FEET TO 11,000 FEET ON MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY FIELDS ARE VERY WEAK...AND GIVEN NO ADVECTION OF AIR
BECAUSE OUR CWA WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW. SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY
LIGHT WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH 600MB DEVELOPING BY 06Z
TUESDAY...WITH NO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

EXPECTING A FAIRLY UNIFORMED SNOWFALL OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
WESTERN CWA....TO 1 TO 4 INCHES IN OUR EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY WEDS
MORNING. WE WILL INCREASE THE POPS AGAIN TO LIKELY/LOW CAT WITH
HIGHEST VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY EARLY WEDS
MORNING...SUPPORTING SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT...AS SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN WE ARE UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD THERMAL PROFILES
ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.20 AND 0.30 DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS COLD AIR DOES NOT HOLD AS MUCH MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDS.

WE WILL BE UNDER GENERAL WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH TEMPS
COOLING SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY. THINKING HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30F ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY 20S ON TUESDAY AND LOWS JUST
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND RESULT IN MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS
PERIOD...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THIS FRONT WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO
FAR. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ZERO TO 10 BELOW. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT
AROUND -30C ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND SOME NORTHERN AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. CORE OF COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS DEPARTS...BUT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND THE EXPECTATION OF SOME SNOW
COVER IN MOST AREAS...EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 15 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERS LATE IN
THE DAY. PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD
AS FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER
18Z MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH
WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH
AT BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBUF 080839
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
339 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WHILE THESE FEATURES WILL EVENTUALLY GENERATE SOME
SNOW FOR US...IT WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THE STORMS
WILL MERGE INTO A COMPLEX SYSTEM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING
MORE NUISANCE SNOW IN THE PROCESS. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS
WEEK...ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH COLDER
AIR...INCLUDING SOME FRIGID ARCTIC AIR FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SFC AND UPPER AIR MAPS ARE `BUSY` THIS MORNING AS A COMPLEX
WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
LETS START WITH THE MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM...THAT BEING THE COASTAL
STORM WELL OFF VIRGINIA. THIS FEATURE...WHILE MAKING NEWS HEADLINES
FOR ITS EFFECTS ON THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON OUR REGION. IT WILL ATTEMPT TO THROW SOME ATLANTIC BASED
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...BUT AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ADIRONDACKS WILL GENERALLY
DOWNSLOPE INTO THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY AND FURTHER CUT BACK ON ANY
LIGHT SNOW THAT DOES MAKE IT THAT FAR INTO OUR REGION.

THE SECOND STORM ON THE MAPS THIS MORNING IS AN EXPANSIVE BUT
OTHERWISE UNIMPRESSIVE LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT FIRST
GLANCE...ONE COULD GET EXCITED ABOUT THE SATELLITE IMAGES AND
SYNOPTIC MAPS OF THIS FEATURE...BUT WITH A LITTLE DIGGING ONE CAN
SEE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS FAR FROM THREATENING. WHILE THIS STORM
SYSTEM IS ONLY A DAY OR SO OLD...IT HAS ALREADY OCCLUDED AND IS
BARELY AT A 1000MB. AS THE LAST OF A PAIR OF VERY VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVES DIG INTO THE BASE OF ITS SUPPORTING LONGWAVE TROUGH...
THE BROAD STORM SYSTEM WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...THERE WILL STILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC LIFT. MORE ON THIS IN A MOMENT.

BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEMS DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL BE A
SFC BASED RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN QUEBEC AND THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THIS RIDGING WILL HELP
TO KEEP THE MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA PCPN FREE TODAY...
PARTICULARLY SITES EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. FOR THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES...CONTINUING BACKING OF THE LOW LEVELS WINDS DOWNSTREAM
OF THE DIGGING AND PROGRESSIVELY MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL FURTHER DETER PCPN FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION
FROM OHIO. HAVE CONTINUED THE FORECAST TREND OF BACKING OFF ON THE
DAYTIME POPS...WITH ONLY SLGT/LOW CHC POPS BEING FOUND ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE WRN COUNTIES. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY ONLY. THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THE PCPN WILL BE 100M HGT
FALLS AND A PERSISTENT MID-UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW.

IN TERMS OF P-TYPE...WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ROOM AT CLOUD
LEVEL FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH...THE AIR IN THE LOWEST COUPLE
THOUSAND FEET SHOULD BE TOO `WARM` TO SUPPORT JUST PLAIN SNOW. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN INSTEAD...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A LITTLE
WET SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF WILL BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH.

DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 40 EAST OF LK ONT.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL STALL IN THE VCNTY OF
NORTHERN OHIO WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERNMOST ONTARIO. MINIMAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEW YORK DURING
THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT...BUT WHILE THIS SHOULD HELP TO MAKE LIGHT
PCPN MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE REGION...IT WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS WHOLE SYSTEM SO QPF
(IE. SNOWFALL) WILL NOT BE MINIMAL. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS
SOMEWHAT BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF LIFT. IN FACT...PARTS OF THE FINGER
LAKES REGION MAY NOT `MEASURE` AS THAT AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING. THE LOWEST POPS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THAT PARTICULAR AREA.

ANY MIXED PCPN EARLY IN THE EVENING SHOULD CHANGE TO JUST LIGHT SNOW
AS THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS COOL THROUGH THE 30S...AND IN
SOME AREAS...INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL UNFOLD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WILL
OPEN UP INTO A BROAD TROUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH NUMEROUS LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. EACH ONE OF THESE WEAK WAVES WILL PERIODICALLY BRING WEAK
ASCENT. AT THE SURFACE...AN INITIAL PARENT LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF LAKE HURON TUESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SECONDARY COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL PARENT LOW WILL SLOWLY DISSOLVE INTO A
WEST/EAST ORIENTED INVERTED TROUGH WHICH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WHAT REMAINS
OF THE ORIGINAL LOW WILL DRIFT EAST ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY.

ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE AND PERIODIC WEAK LIFT WILL MAINTAIN PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
DIFFUSE AND SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FORCING WILL MAKE TIMING THE
PERIODS OF BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION DIFFICULT...BUT IN GENERAL
EXPECT MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLDER AIR BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND ALLOWS LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO COME INTO PLAY.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON TUESDAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE OPENING MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND WEAK SURFACE LOW. FORCING
AND MOISTURE IS WEAKEST ON TUESDAY...SO EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO
BE A HALF INCH OR LESS IN MOST AREAS WITH UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE
HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID OR EVEN UPPER
30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER LIMIT ACCUMULATION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE ORIGINAL LOW RIPPLES EAST ALONG
THE INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOULD PICK UP IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND THE COLD AIR GROWS DEEPER...ALLOWING FOR
MORE LAKE ENHANCEMENT. EXPECT AN INCH OR SO ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NY
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY. LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF
LAKE ERIE AND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING SEVERAL INCHES TO
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND BOSTON HILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND STEADILY COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID TO UPPER 20S ON THE HILLS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WHILE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER ALIGNED NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER LAKES WHILE MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD BRING THE BEST SETUP FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY BRING SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH AN ADDED
BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS
EXPECT JUST MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTABLY COLDER...WITH MID TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST AREAS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2-4 INCHES IN MOST AREAS WITH
JUST VERY MINOR AMOUNTS EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD ADDING UP TO MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS OVER TIME. AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE WITH ADDED LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. 3 DAY TOTALS MAY
REACH 8-12 INCHES ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER IF
FLOW ALIGNS FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME. CONSIDERED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FOR THE
UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW DIRECTION AND THUS THE EFFICIENCY OF UPSLOPE FLOW.
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LAKE ENHANCEMENT TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MAY ALSO BRING HIGHER TOTALS FROM
ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL MAINTAIN SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LATER FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE
MAINTAINED EAST OF THE LAKES AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF MAY BRING
A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING BY FAR THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION NEXT WEEKEND. IN
FACT...SEVERAL MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS AND
PREVIOUS 12Z ECMWF DROP 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -30C ACROSS
WESTERN NY ON SATURDAY. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST
850MB TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF
FEBRUARY IS -28C. GIVEN THE EXTREME AIRMASS AND GOOD MODEL
CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST DAY...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES FURTHER
WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS SATURDAY AND LOWS BELOW ZERO
SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE COLDEST GUIDANCE VERIFIES TEMPERATURES MAY
STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE ZERO FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WIND MAY PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BUT
AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS
DESPITE THE STRONG INSTABILITY.

THE COLD STAYS THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR RETREATS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS ALL OF WRN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK THIS MORNING...AS WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN NEW YORK.

WHILE CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN DURING THE COURSE
OF THE DAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA (CHAUTAUQUA CO) LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH...SO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KJHW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY NIGHTFALL.

TONIGHT...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO LOWERING CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW...SO VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH TIME.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SRN TIER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...MVFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK RIDGING FOUND BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL KEEP MODERATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPIEST CONDITIONS IN CANADIAN WATERS.

AS A LARGE STORM MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL FRESHEN A
BIT. CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SCA ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE WESTERN
HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT AGAIN...THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WAVES WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE LAKE.

FOR TUESDAY...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE
ROUGH WATERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...INCLUDING THE
NY NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 080838
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
338 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SPREAD
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NY AND PA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY, AS MUCH COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
220 AM UPDATE...
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN IS FORECAST TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE STILL ABNORMALLY WARM, WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT 40 DEGREES IN MANY LOCALES.
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
225 AM UPDATE...

AS THE GREAT LAKES CYCLONE DROPS INTO WESTERN NY AND PA, LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. WE CONTINUE TO THINK THE
SNOW WILL BE INSTABILITY-BASED, AS THE UL TROF SETS UP SHOP OVER
NY AND PA AND POURS COOLER AIR INTO THE MID AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE.

A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY
NIGHT AND LATE WEDNESDAY.

COLDER 925-850MB AIR POURS ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL.
AT THIS VERY PRELIMINARY POINT, IT APPEARS THE FLOW FAVORS A LAKE
BAND OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THEN SHIFTS THE BAND TOWARD ONONDAGA/MADISON IN THE SECOND HALF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. BEST CHANCE FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW STILL LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE A WELL ALIGNED 300
FLOW WILL OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD WITH T85 AROUND -20C. THIS
COULD MEAN SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECTS SNOWS FOR PARTS OF ONONDAGA,
MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTIES. THIS WEEKEND STILL LOOKS VERY COLD
WITH POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON WITH T85
DOWN AROUND -25C.

PREVIOUS DISC...
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A MUCH COLDER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 500 MB LOW MOVES SE FROM ONTARIO
THROUGH QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND. MAIN WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DUE TO W/NW FLOW OF VERY COLD AIR OVER WARMER LAKES.
INITIALIZED FORECAST WITH SUPERBLEND BUT BEEFED UP POPS DUE TO
EXPECTED LAKE EFFECT.

TO START THE PERIOD, COLDER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING SFC LOW WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OCCURRING ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENHANCED BY THE LAKES. AT THIS POINT,
LAKE EFFECT LIKELY WON`T BE TOO ORGANIZED AND STRONG DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER WINDS BECOME BETTER
ALIGNED THURSDAY FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF ONONDAGA/MADISON/ONEIDA COUNTIES WITH REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL NY ALSO SEEING SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW WINDS AND COLD TEMPS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 20 TO 25 RANGE.

THE COLD CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT CONTINUING AND ALSO
BEING ENHANCED BY A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON LOOKS TO BE
MOVING IN WITH INDICATIONS BEING FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND ONLY IN
THE TEENS ALONG WITH SUBZERO LOWS POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS. EXPECT
SOME LAKE EFFECT INTO SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND LOOKING TO BECOME MAINLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. FOR TODAY, MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FOLLOWED BY LOW VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z, CIGS
AROUND 4K FT, WITH FLURRIES AS SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES STARTS IMPACTING AREA.

E/SE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 5-8 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT THRU FRI...PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 080838
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
338 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SPREAD
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NY AND PA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY, AS MUCH COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
220 AM UPDATE...
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN IS FORECAST TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE STILL ABNORMALLY WARM, WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT 40 DEGREES IN MANY LOCALES.
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
225 AM UPDATE...

AS THE GREAT LAKES CYCLONE DROPS INTO WESTERN NY AND PA, LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. WE CONTINUE TO THINK THE
SNOW WILL BE INSTABILITY-BASED, AS THE UL TROF SETS UP SHOP OVER
NY AND PA AND POURS COOLER AIR INTO THE MID AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE.

A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY
NIGHT AND LATE WEDNESDAY.

COLDER 925-850MB AIR POURS ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL.
AT THIS VERY PRELIMINARY POINT, IT APPEARS THE FLOW FAVORS A LAKE
BAND OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THEN SHIFTS THE BAND TOWARD ONONDAGA/MADISON IN THE SECOND HALF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. BEST CHANCE FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW STILL LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE A WELL ALIGNED 300
FLOW WILL OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD WITH T85 AROUND -20C. THIS
COULD MEAN SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECTS SNOWS FOR PARTS OF ONONDAGA,
MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTIES. THIS WEEKEND STILL LOOKS VERY COLD
WITH POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON WITH T85
DOWN AROUND -25C.

PREVIOUS DISC...
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A MUCH COLDER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 500 MB LOW MOVES SE FROM ONTARIO
THROUGH QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND. MAIN WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DUE TO W/NW FLOW OF VERY COLD AIR OVER WARMER LAKES.
INITIALIZED FORECAST WITH SUPERBLEND BUT BEEFED UP POPS DUE TO
EXPECTED LAKE EFFECT.

TO START THE PERIOD, COLDER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING SFC LOW WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OCCURRING ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENHANCED BY THE LAKES. AT THIS POINT,
LAKE EFFECT LIKELY WON`T BE TOO ORGANIZED AND STRONG DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER WINDS BECOME BETTER
ALIGNED THURSDAY FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF ONONDAGA/MADISON/ONEIDA COUNTIES WITH REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL NY ALSO SEEING SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW WINDS AND COLD TEMPS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 20 TO 25 RANGE.

THE COLD CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT CONTINUING AND ALSO
BEING ENHANCED BY A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON LOOKS TO BE
MOVING IN WITH INDICATIONS BEING FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND ONLY IN
THE TEENS ALONG WITH SUBZERO LOWS POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS. EXPECT
SOME LAKE EFFECT INTO SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND LOOKING TO BECOME MAINLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. FOR TODAY, MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FOLLOWED BY LOW VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z, CIGS
AROUND 4K FT, WITH FLURRIES AS SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES STARTS IMPACTING AREA.

E/SE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 5-8 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT THRU FRI...PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 080724
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
224 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SPREAD
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NY AND PA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY, AS MUCH COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
220 AM UPDATE...
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN IS FORECAST TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE STILL ABNORMALLY WARM, WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT 40 DEGREES IN MANY LOCALES.
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
225 AM UPDATE...

AS THE GREAT LAKES CYCLONE DROPS INTO WESTERN NY AND PA, LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. WE CONTINUE TO THINK THE
SNOW WILL BE INSTABILITY-BASED, AS THE UL TROF SETS UP SHOP OVER
NY AND PA AND POURS COOLER AIR INTO THE MID AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE.

A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY
NIGHT AND LATE WEDNESDAY.

COLDER 925-850MB AIR POURS ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL.
AT THIS VERY PRELIMINARY POINT, IT APPEARS THE FLOW FAVORS A LAKE
BAND OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THEN SHIFTS THE BAND TOWARD ONONDAGA/MADISON IN THE SECOND HALF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MUCH COLDER
PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED 500 MB LOW MOVES SE FROM ONTARIO THROUGH QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND. MAIN WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE
TO W/NW FLOW OF VERY COLD AIR OVER WARMER LAKES. INITIALIZED
FORECAST WITH SUPERBLEND BUT BEEFED UP POPS DUE TO EXPECTED LAKE
EFFECT.

TO START THE PERIOD, COLDER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING SFC LOW WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OCCURRING ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENHANCED BY THE LAKES. AT THIS POINT,
LAKE EFFECT LIKELY WON`T BE TOO ORGANIZED AND STRONG DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER WINDS BECOME BETTER
ALIGNED THURSDAY FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF ONONDAGA/MADISON/ONEIDA COUNTIES WITH REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL NY ALSO SEEING SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW WINDS AND COLD TEMPS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 20 TO 25 RANGE.

THE COLD CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT CONTINUING AND ALSO
BEING ENHANCED BY A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON LOOKS TO BE
MOVING IN WITH INDICATIONS BEING FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND ONLY IN
THE TEENS ALONG WITH SUBZERO LOWS POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS. EXPECT
SOME LAKE EFFECT INTO SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND LOOKING TO BECOME MAINLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. FOR TODAY, MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FOLLOWED BY LOW VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z, CIGS
AROUND 4K FT, WITH FLURRIES AS SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES STARTS IMPACTING AREA.

E/SE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 5-8 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT THRU FRI...PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 080724
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
224 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SPREAD
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NY AND PA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY, AS MUCH COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
220 AM UPDATE...
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN IS FORECAST TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE STILL ABNORMALLY WARM, WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT 40 DEGREES IN MANY LOCALES.
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
225 AM UPDATE...

AS THE GREAT LAKES CYCLONE DROPS INTO WESTERN NY AND PA, LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. WE CONTINUE TO THINK THE
SNOW WILL BE INSTABILITY-BASED, AS THE UL TROF SETS UP SHOP OVER
NY AND PA AND POURS COOLER AIR INTO THE MID AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE.

A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY
NIGHT AND LATE WEDNESDAY.

COLDER 925-850MB AIR POURS ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL.
AT THIS VERY PRELIMINARY POINT, IT APPEARS THE FLOW FAVORS A LAKE
BAND OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THEN SHIFTS THE BAND TOWARD ONONDAGA/MADISON IN THE SECOND HALF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MUCH COLDER
PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED 500 MB LOW MOVES SE FROM ONTARIO THROUGH QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND. MAIN WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE
TO W/NW FLOW OF VERY COLD AIR OVER WARMER LAKES. INITIALIZED
FORECAST WITH SUPERBLEND BUT BEEFED UP POPS DUE TO EXPECTED LAKE
EFFECT.

TO START THE PERIOD, COLDER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING SFC LOW WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OCCURRING ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENHANCED BY THE LAKES. AT THIS POINT,
LAKE EFFECT LIKELY WON`T BE TOO ORGANIZED AND STRONG DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER WINDS BECOME BETTER
ALIGNED THURSDAY FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF ONONDAGA/MADISON/ONEIDA COUNTIES WITH REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL NY ALSO SEEING SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW WINDS AND COLD TEMPS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 20 TO 25 RANGE.

THE COLD CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT CONTINUING AND ALSO
BEING ENHANCED BY A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON LOOKS TO BE
MOVING IN WITH INDICATIONS BEING FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND ONLY IN
THE TEENS ALONG WITH SUBZERO LOWS POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS. EXPECT
SOME LAKE EFFECT INTO SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND LOOKING TO BECOME MAINLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. FOR TODAY, MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FOLLOWED BY LOW VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z, CIGS
AROUND 4K FT, WITH FLURRIES AS SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES STARTS IMPACTING AREA.

E/SE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 5-8 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT THRU FRI...PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 080724
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
224 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SPREAD
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NY AND PA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY, AS MUCH COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
220 AM UPDATE...
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN IS FORECAST TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE STILL ABNORMALLY WARM, WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT 40 DEGREES IN MANY LOCALES.
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
225 AM UPDATE...

AS THE GREAT LAKES CYCLONE DROPS INTO WESTERN NY AND PA, LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. WE CONTINUE TO THINK THE
SNOW WILL BE INSTABILITY-BASED, AS THE UL TROF SETS UP SHOP OVER
NY AND PA AND POURS COOLER AIR INTO THE MID AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE.

A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY
NIGHT AND LATE WEDNESDAY.

COLDER 925-850MB AIR POURS ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL.
AT THIS VERY PRELIMINARY POINT, IT APPEARS THE FLOW FAVORS A LAKE
BAND OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THEN SHIFTS THE BAND TOWARD ONONDAGA/MADISON IN THE SECOND HALF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MUCH COLDER
PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED 500 MB LOW MOVES SE FROM ONTARIO THROUGH QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND. MAIN WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE
TO W/NW FLOW OF VERY COLD AIR OVER WARMER LAKES. INITIALIZED
FORECAST WITH SUPERBLEND BUT BEEFED UP POPS DUE TO EXPECTED LAKE
EFFECT.

TO START THE PERIOD, COLDER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING SFC LOW WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OCCURRING ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENHANCED BY THE LAKES. AT THIS POINT,
LAKE EFFECT LIKELY WON`T BE TOO ORGANIZED AND STRONG DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER WINDS BECOME BETTER
ALIGNED THURSDAY FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF ONONDAGA/MADISON/ONEIDA COUNTIES WITH REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL NY ALSO SEEING SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW WINDS AND COLD TEMPS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 20 TO 25 RANGE.

THE COLD CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT CONTINUING AND ALSO
BEING ENHANCED BY A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON LOOKS TO BE
MOVING IN WITH INDICATIONS BEING FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND ONLY IN
THE TEENS ALONG WITH SUBZERO LOWS POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS. EXPECT
SOME LAKE EFFECT INTO SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND LOOKING TO BECOME MAINLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. FOR TODAY, MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FOLLOWED BY LOW VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z, CIGS
AROUND 4K FT, WITH FLURRIES AS SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES STARTS IMPACTING AREA.

E/SE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 5-8 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT THRU FRI...PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...RRM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 080621
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
121 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY ON MONDAY
BEFORE A DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY LATE
WEEK...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1247 AM EST MONDAY...EXPECT A QUIET EVENING WITH SOME CIRRUS
OVER THE REGION. WITH GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECT TEMPS TO
CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE EVENING. I CONTINUED TO DROP MIN
TEMPS BY ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO WITH LOW TO MID TEENS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SUNDAY...A LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY 00Z TUESDAY...WHILE NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM
DIVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
UNPHASED...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED BACK FROM COASTAL TO
PRODUCE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS
OUR REGION...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION FROM 2500
FEET TO 11,000 FEET ON MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY FIELDS ARE VERY WEAK...AND GIVEN NO ADVECTION OF AIR
BECAUSE OUR CWA WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW. SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY
LIGHT WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH 600MB DEVELOPING BY 06Z
TUESDAY...WITH NO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

EXPECTING A FAIRLY UNIFORMED SNOWFALL OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
WESTERN CWA....TO 1 TO 4 INCHES IN OUR EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY WEDS
MORNING. WE WILL INCREASE THE POPS AGAIN TO LIKELY/LOW CAT WITH
HIGHEST VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY EARLY WEDS
MORNING...SUPPORTING SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT...AS SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN WE ARE UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD THERMAL PROFILES
ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.20 AND 0.30 DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS COLD AIR DOES NOT HOLD AS MUCH MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDS.

WE WILL BE UNDER GENERAL WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH TEMPS
COOLING SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY. THINKING HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30F ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY 20S ON TUESDAY AND LOWS JUST
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND RESULT IN MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS
PERIOD...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THIS FRONT WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO
FAR. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ZERO TO 10 BELOW. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT
AROUND -30C ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND SOME NORTHERN AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. CORE OF COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS DEPARTS...BUT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND THE EXPECTATION OF SOME SNOW
COVER IN MOST AREAS...EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 15 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING
BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERS LATE IN
THE DAY. PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD
AS FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER
18Z MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH
WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH
AT BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY
VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/DEAL
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KALY 080609
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK...THERE WILL BE
THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 109 AM EST...IR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
AND WELL WRAPPED UP STORM OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...WITH A
SHIELD OF CLOUDS HEADED NORTHWARD TOWARDS UPSTATE NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LOOK TO STAY FAIRLY
CLOUDY WITH THE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE WELL AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. MOST AREAS LOOK TO STAY DRY...ALTHOUGH THE 3KM HRRR
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD START SPREADING INTO NW CT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AND PASS WELL OFF THE COAST. THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM
LOOK TO MISS OUR AREA...HOWEVER...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GRAZE INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL...AS SHOWN IN THE LATEST 00Z NAM/GFS
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE 3KM HRRR. MOST OF THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR
DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  MODEL QPF IS FAIRLY
LIGHT...AND DRY LOW LEVELS WILL PREVENT SOME OF THIS PRECIP
INITIALLY FROM REACHING THE GROUND. STILL...CAN EXPECT A COATING
TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS EASTERN NY...AND TWO TO FOUR
INCHES ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENLAND...THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AT THIS
POINT...THIS SNOWFALL LOOKS TO FALL JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY LEVEL
CRITERIA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
TRENDS...IF AN ADVISORY COULD POSSIBLY BE NEEED FOR PARTS OF NW CT
OR WESTERN MASS.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AND CHILLY THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. HIGHS TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. N-NE
WINDS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS OVER
EASTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE PASSING STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A LARGE LUMBERING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST BECOMING A DEEP TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE USA BY PERIODS END.  A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL DROP
INTO IT...RESULTING IN ITS SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE CUT OFF...SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND
IT...A NW-SE SFC TROF FM CLE TO RIC PIVOTING SLOWLY NE...WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF -SN...-SNSH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GENERAL WEAK UPR FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT
WITH AT MOST A FEW INCHES TOTAL OVER THE PERIOD.

BY WED NT THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION. THE 500 HPA CUT OFF WILL
OPEN TO A SHARP TROF THAT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS. AN E-W CDFNT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR
ORGANIZING LES...AND CAA FROM AN INCRG NW FLOW WILL ENHANCE SNSN
OVER HIGHER TRRN. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NR TO
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL DURING.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE...ACTUAL
TIMING OF LT SNOW...-SHSN VARIES AS ITS TIED TO VARYING TIMING OF
SHORT WVS. SO FCST WILL WILL CARRY HI CHC -SNSH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THE 500 HPA TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE RGN AND FLATTENS.
IN ITS WAKE A BRISK NORTH FLOW...BTWN AN ARCTIC HIGH IN THE UPPER
GRT PLAINS AND DEEPENING CSTL LOW IN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN STRONG
CAA. SCT -SHSN WILL STILL BE A CONCERN...BUT THEY WILL BE MAINLY
LES WITH LESS THAN AN OPTIMAL TRAJECTORY ACROSS LK ONT...AND N-NW
FLOW OVER HIR TRRN.

THU NT THERMAL TROF SETS UP OVER N GRT LKS...AND AS THE NEXT COLD
AIRMASS OVER ONT/QB PUSHES SOUTH EVOLVES INTO ANOTHER E-W
CDFNT...AND A VERY ENHANCED LES RESPONSE BY FRI ALONG THE FRONT IN
W AND CNTRL NYS. BY END OF THE PERIOD TROF SHARPENS AND CDFNT MVS
SOUTH OF RGN...AND STRONG CAA IS IN PLACE...AS LES BREAKS DOWN SAT
IN OUR FCA. WIND AND COLD FRI NT TO PERIODS END MAY RESULT IN
WIND CHILL ISSUES.

TEMPS WILL GO OFF THE CLIFF IN THIS PERIOD BCMG 10-15 DEG BLO
NORMAL. WINTER COLD WILL BE HERE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...05Z...HAS A COASTAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 200
MILES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING TO
ITS NORTHEAST WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND CAPE COD. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 300 SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE
COD MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THIS ALL MEANS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND PORTIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THICKENING AND LOWER AFTER SUNRISE.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MID/LATE MORNING AT KPSF AND DURING THE AFTERNOON
AT KALB...KGFL AND KPOU. AS THE SNOW STARTS EXPECTING MVFR WITH CONDITIONS
LOWER TO IFR DUE TO VISIBILITY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT KPOU DURING THE EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TOMORROW...ESP FOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT GENERALLY LOOK LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN
INCH. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT THESE WILL AMOUNTS TO LITTLE OF
HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING BY WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KBGM 080543
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1243 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY, RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST
OF MONDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED, MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE.
ANY ACCUMULATIONS, HOWEVER, SHOULD BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
SUNNY SKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WILL GIVE WAY TO A CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT, WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS
OVER PARTS OF THE REGION.

DESPITE MAINLY CLEAR AND GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS, OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S, GIVEN A FAIRLY MILD AIR
MASS, AND LACK OF SNOW COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT MOST OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY, AS OUR AREA IS
CAUGHT IN A SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN THE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE STORM, AND A GRADUALLY APPROACHING GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY SHORT-WAVE. ONLY A FEW FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED,
AT WORST, OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION. ANY LIGHT SNOW FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT, SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SLOWLY OVERSPREAD
CENTRAL NY/NORTHEAST PA, AS SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ENCROACH ON OUR AREA, ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AXIS.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE IN NATURE, FROM
TUESDAY RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AS GENERAL UPPER TROUGHINESS, COLD
AIR ALOFT, AND MOISTURE RESIDE OVER NY/PA. SINCE THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE SLOWLY FILLING WITH TIME, SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE
SCATTERED/DISORGANIZED IN NATURE. GIVEN THIS, AND MARGINAL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (IN THE UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S MOST OF THE TIME), ANY
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK INCONSEQUENTIAL (ON THE ORDER OF A COATING-2"
FOR MOST PLACES OVER A 24-36 HOUR PERIOD).

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE MAIN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND BETTER
LAKE-EFFECT POTENTIAL HOLDS OFF TIL AT LEAST LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MUCH COLDER
PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED 500 MB LOW MOVES SE FROM ONTARIO THROUGH QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND. MAIN WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE
TO W/NW FLOW OF VERY COLD AIR OVER WARMER LAKES. INITIALIZED
FORECAST WITH SUPERBLEND BUT BEEFED UP POPS DUE TO EXPECTED LAKE
EFFECT.

TO START THE PERIOD, COLDER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING SFC LOW WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OCCURRING ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENHANCED BY THE LAKES. AT THIS POINT,
LAKE EFFECT LIKELY WON`T BE TOO ORGANIZED AND STRONG DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER WINDS BECOME BETTER
ALIGNED THURSDAY FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF ONONDAGA/MADISON/ONEIDA COUNTIES WITH REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL NY ALSO SEEING SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW WINDS AND COLD TEMPS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 20 TO 25 RANGE.

THE COLD CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT CONTINUING AND ALSO
BEING ENHANCED BY A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON LOOKS TO BE
MOVING IN WITH INDICATIONS BE