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000
FXUS61 KBTV 250554
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
154 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 111 AM EDT SATURDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO FRESH UP THE
POPS...TEMPS...AND WINDS WITH CRNT RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS. WINTER
HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING WITH WHITEFACE
REPORTING A CRNT TEMP OF 16F AND A WIND CHILL OF -8F.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH. CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHER TRRN OF NORTHERN NY/VT AND WILL
CONT TO MENTION CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS. A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY MORNING. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL ONLY DROP ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO...GIVEN WINDS AND CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 403 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE MOISTURE
ROTATING SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY...SO
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE WARMER THAN
TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY FROM THE
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
(MAINLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS). MOS GUIDANCE
AGAIN LOOKS TOO WARM FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT FRIDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL FINALLY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF EXITING THE REGION AS A
MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND ON MONDAY IT WILL COMBINE WITH
A WEAK SURFACE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SUMMITS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT THAT SHOULD ONLY
REALLY BE IN AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

THEN TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BRINING ABOUT A WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WITH DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS SHUTTING DOWN SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE MID
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE PROBLEM IS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
EXACTLY THE SITUATION WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE 00Z TO 12Z
RUNS FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME A FISH STORM AND PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFFECTING ONLY MARINERS. AS SUCH I WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND
CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND
GRADUALLY WARM UNDER THE RIDGING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS. THEN AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
IN LATE IN THE WEEK WE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COLDER TRENDING BACK
DOWN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE SUMMITS IN THE
UPPER 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES BUT INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KSLK AND KMPV.

STAGNANT UPPER LOW AND WRAP-AROUND ATLANTIC MOISTURE LEADING TO
PERSISTENT OVC CEILINGS AROUND 4-5KFT AT THE TERMINALS WITH ENOUGH
DEEP MOISTURE AT TIMES FOR ISOLD/SCT -SHSN/-SHRA IN MOUNTAIN
LOCALES OF NRN NY/VT.

ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDS AROUND 15Z SATURDAY AS
VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE SHRINKS A BIT. NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 10 KTS SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LOCONTO/SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250554
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
154 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 111 AM EDT SATURDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO FRESH UP THE
POPS...TEMPS...AND WINDS WITH CRNT RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS. WINTER
HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING WITH WHITEFACE
REPORTING A CRNT TEMP OF 16F AND A WIND CHILL OF -8F.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH. CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHER TRRN OF NORTHERN NY/VT AND WILL
CONT TO MENTION CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS. A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY MORNING. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL ONLY DROP ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO...GIVEN WINDS AND CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 403 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE MOISTURE
ROTATING SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY...SO
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE WARMER THAN
TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY FROM THE
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
(MAINLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS). MOS GUIDANCE
AGAIN LOOKS TOO WARM FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT FRIDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL FINALLY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF EXITING THE REGION AS A
MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND ON MONDAY IT WILL COMBINE WITH
A WEAK SURFACE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SUMMITS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT THAT SHOULD ONLY
REALLY BE IN AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

THEN TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BRINING ABOUT A WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WITH DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS SHUTTING DOWN SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE MID
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE PROBLEM IS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
EXACTLY THE SITUATION WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE 00Z TO 12Z
RUNS FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME A FISH STORM AND PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFFECTING ONLY MARINERS. AS SUCH I WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND
CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND
GRADUALLY WARM UNDER THE RIDGING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS. THEN AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
IN LATE IN THE WEEK WE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COLDER TRENDING BACK
DOWN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE SUMMITS IN THE
UPPER 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES BUT INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KSLK AND KMPV.

STAGNANT UPPER LOW AND WRAP-AROUND ATLANTIC MOISTURE LEADING TO
PERSISTENT OVC CEILINGS AROUND 4-5KFT AT THE TERMINALS WITH ENOUGH
DEEP MOISTURE AT TIMES FOR ISOLD/SCT -SHSN/-SHRA IN MOUNTAIN
LOCALES OF NRN NY/VT.

ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDS AROUND 15Z SATURDAY AS
VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE SHRINKS A BIT. NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 10 KTS SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LOCONTO/SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250554
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
154 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 111 AM EDT SATURDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO FRESH UP THE
POPS...TEMPS...AND WINDS WITH CRNT RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS. WINTER
HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING WITH WHITEFACE
REPORTING A CRNT TEMP OF 16F AND A WIND CHILL OF -8F.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH. CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHER TRRN OF NORTHERN NY/VT AND WILL
CONT TO MENTION CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS. A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY MORNING. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL ONLY DROP ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO...GIVEN WINDS AND CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 403 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE MOISTURE
ROTATING SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY...SO
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE WARMER THAN
TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY FROM THE
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
(MAINLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS). MOS GUIDANCE
AGAIN LOOKS TOO WARM FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT FRIDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL FINALLY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF EXITING THE REGION AS A
MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND ON MONDAY IT WILL COMBINE WITH
A WEAK SURFACE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SUMMITS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT THAT SHOULD ONLY
REALLY BE IN AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

THEN TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BRINING ABOUT A WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WITH DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS SHUTTING DOWN SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE MID
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE PROBLEM IS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
EXACTLY THE SITUATION WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE 00Z TO 12Z
RUNS FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME A FISH STORM AND PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFFECTING ONLY MARINERS. AS SUCH I WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND
CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND
GRADUALLY WARM UNDER THE RIDGING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS. THEN AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
IN LATE IN THE WEEK WE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COLDER TRENDING BACK
DOWN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE SUMMITS IN THE
UPPER 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES BUT INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KSLK AND KMPV.

STAGNANT UPPER LOW AND WRAP-AROUND ATLANTIC MOISTURE LEADING TO
PERSISTENT OVC CEILINGS AROUND 4-5KFT AT THE TERMINALS WITH ENOUGH
DEEP MOISTURE AT TIMES FOR ISOLD/SCT -SHSN/-SHRA IN MOUNTAIN
LOCALES OF NRN NY/VT.

ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDS AROUND 15Z SATURDAY AS
VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE SHRINKS A BIT. NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 10 KTS SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LOCONTO/SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250554
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
154 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 111 AM EDT SATURDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO FRESH UP THE
POPS...TEMPS...AND WINDS WITH CRNT RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS. WINTER
HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING WITH WHITEFACE
REPORTING A CRNT TEMP OF 16F AND A WIND CHILL OF -8F.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH. CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHER TRRN OF NORTHERN NY/VT AND WILL
CONT TO MENTION CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS. A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY MORNING. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL ONLY DROP ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO...GIVEN WINDS AND CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 403 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE MOISTURE
ROTATING SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY...SO
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE WARMER THAN
TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY FROM THE
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
(MAINLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS). MOS GUIDANCE
AGAIN LOOKS TOO WARM FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT FRIDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL FINALLY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF EXITING THE REGION AS A
MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND ON MONDAY IT WILL COMBINE WITH
A WEAK SURFACE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SUMMITS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT THAT SHOULD ONLY
REALLY BE IN AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

THEN TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BRINING ABOUT A WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WITH DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS SHUTTING DOWN SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE MID
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE PROBLEM IS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
EXACTLY THE SITUATION WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE 00Z TO 12Z
RUNS FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME A FISH STORM AND PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFFECTING ONLY MARINERS. AS SUCH I WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND
CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND
GRADUALLY WARM UNDER THE RIDGING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS. THEN AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
IN LATE IN THE WEEK WE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COLDER TRENDING BACK
DOWN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE SUMMITS IN THE
UPPER 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES BUT INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KSLK AND KMPV.

STAGNANT UPPER LOW AND WRAP-AROUND ATLANTIC MOISTURE LEADING TO
PERSISTENT OVC CEILINGS AROUND 4-5KFT AT THE TERMINALS WITH ENOUGH
DEEP MOISTURE AT TIMES FOR ISOLD/SCT -SHSN/-SHRA IN MOUNTAIN
LOCALES OF NRN NY/VT.

ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDS AROUND 15Z SATURDAY AS
VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE SHRINKS A BIT. NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 10 KTS SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LOCONTO/SLW



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBUF 250535
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
135 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
PERSISTENT LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED NICELY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY WITH CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STALLED VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
A LOBE OF DEEPER MOISTURE APPARENT IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN
OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLIP WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA BUT THIS WILL ONLY HAVE A SMALL IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST INLAND AREAS...WITH SOME OF
THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY IN THE LOWER 30S
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE TODAY FOR MOST AREAS. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRUSH THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY POP
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY. CLOUDS WILL STILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
MARITIMES LOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AT
BEST...WITH SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LIKELY STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY.

850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -3C OR SO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT LOW
50S IN MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE
IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER VALLEYS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER. GRADIENT ONSHORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...AND A LOCAL LAKE BREEZE MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEAR
BUFFALO AND KEEP DOWNTOWN COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE GRIDDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH NO CHANGES WARRANTED.

A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC...AND A SPOKE OF UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND.

THE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...SPINNING SOME WEAK LIFT AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE SUNDAY. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT IN THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS...MAKING RAIN SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THERE. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY / UP TO AROUND -2 C/ AND SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED LIFT REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW RETROGRADES BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE ON MONDAY WITH
THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...THE NUISANCE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW WARMING
TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ON HOW
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER AIRMASS
IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE WEEK AS
THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE
EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY NEAR ART WHICH IS CLOSER TO A DEPARTING
UPPER LOW...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN 4-6KT AND IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH WITH A SCT-
BKN AOA 10K FT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS NOW DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE
THE LAST TO SEE LESSENING WIND AND WAVE ACTION...BUT EVEN HERE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MORNING.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND
WAVES TODAY WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING. NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY AS PESKY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
BROADENS ITS INFLUENCE AGAIN...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 250535
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
135 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
PERSISTENT LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED NICELY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY WITH CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STALLED VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
A LOBE OF DEEPER MOISTURE APPARENT IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN
OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLIP WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA BUT THIS WILL ONLY HAVE A SMALL IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST INLAND AREAS...WITH SOME OF
THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY IN THE LOWER 30S
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE TODAY FOR MOST AREAS. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRUSH THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY POP
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY. CLOUDS WILL STILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
MARITIMES LOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AT
BEST...WITH SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LIKELY STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY.

850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -3C OR SO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT LOW
50S IN MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE
IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER VALLEYS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER. GRADIENT ONSHORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...AND A LOCAL LAKE BREEZE MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEAR
BUFFALO AND KEEP DOWNTOWN COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE GRIDDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH NO CHANGES WARRANTED.

A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC...AND A SPOKE OF UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND.

THE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...SPINNING SOME WEAK LIFT AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE SUNDAY. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT IN THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS...MAKING RAIN SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THERE. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY / UP TO AROUND -2 C/ AND SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED LIFT REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW RETROGRADES BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE ON MONDAY WITH
THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...THE NUISANCE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW WARMING
TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ON HOW
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER AIRMASS
IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE WEEK AS
THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE
EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY NEAR ART WHICH IS CLOSER TO A DEPARTING
UPPER LOW...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN 4-6KT AND IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH WITH A SCT-
BKN AOA 10K FT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS NOW DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE
THE LAST TO SEE LESSENING WIND AND WAVE ACTION...BUT EVEN HERE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MORNING.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND
WAVES TODAY WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING. NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY AS PESKY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
BROADENS ITS INFLUENCE AGAIN...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 250535
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
135 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
PERSISTENT LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED NICELY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY WITH CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STALLED VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
A LOBE OF DEEPER MOISTURE APPARENT IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN
OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLIP WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA BUT THIS WILL ONLY HAVE A SMALL IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST INLAND AREAS...WITH SOME OF
THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY IN THE LOWER 30S
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE TODAY FOR MOST AREAS. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRUSH THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY POP
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY. CLOUDS WILL STILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
MARITIMES LOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AT
BEST...WITH SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LIKELY STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY.

850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -3C OR SO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT LOW
50S IN MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE
IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER VALLEYS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER. GRADIENT ONSHORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...AND A LOCAL LAKE BREEZE MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEAR
BUFFALO AND KEEP DOWNTOWN COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE GRIDDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH NO CHANGES WARRANTED.

A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC...AND A SPOKE OF UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND.

THE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...SPINNING SOME WEAK LIFT AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE SUNDAY. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT IN THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS...MAKING RAIN SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THERE. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY / UP TO AROUND -2 C/ AND SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED LIFT REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW RETROGRADES BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE ON MONDAY WITH
THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...THE NUISANCE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW WARMING
TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ON HOW
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER AIRMASS
IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE WEEK AS
THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE
EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY NEAR ART WHICH IS CLOSER TO A DEPARTING
UPPER LOW...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN 4-6KT AND IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH WITH A SCT-
BKN AOA 10K FT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS NOW DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE
THE LAST TO SEE LESSENING WIND AND WAVE ACTION...BUT EVEN HERE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MORNING.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND
WAVES TODAY WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING. NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY AS PESKY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
BROADENS ITS INFLUENCE AGAIN...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 250531
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
131 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE PRIMARILY FOR MARINE HEADLINES. THE FCST IS ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A MOS BLEND WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE BORDERLINE...BUT
WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS EXPECTED...SO FEEL
FREEZE WARNING IS STILL WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVER THE NEXT DAY...WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL BE SLOW TO WORK OFFSHORE...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
CAROLINAS. IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA.

THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH W/NW
FLOW IN THE MORNING. THE FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFT
DUE TO A TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. LOCAL SEABREEZES MAY
DEVELOP IF THE FLOW WEAKENS ENOUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WILL BE AT KJFK AND KBDR. WINDS THEN VEER AROUND TO THE N
LATE SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE PROTECTED WATERS CANCELLED WITH WINDS BLW 25 KT. THE
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 6 AM ON THE OCEAN. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVY CONDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH WILL EXIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND CRITERIA LOOKS TO FALL SHORT IN SEVERAL
AREAS...AND FORECAST RH VALUES FALL SHORT FOR SOME SPOTS. 1 AND
1O HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE LOWERED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO AN SPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE APPROPRIATE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 250531
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
131 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE PRIMARILY FOR MARINE HEADLINES. THE FCST IS ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A MOS BLEND WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE BORDERLINE...BUT
WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS EXPECTED...SO FEEL
FREEZE WARNING IS STILL WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVER THE NEXT DAY...WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL BE SLOW TO WORK OFFSHORE...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
CAROLINAS. IN BETWEEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA.

THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH W/NW
FLOW IN THE MORNING. THE FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE W/SW IN THE AFT
DUE TO A TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. LOCAL SEABREEZES MAY
DEVELOP IF THE FLOW WEAKENS ENOUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WILL BE AT KJFK AND KBDR. WINDS THEN VEER AROUND TO THE N
LATE SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE PROTECTED WATERS CANCELLED WITH WINDS BLW 25 KT. THE
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 6 AM ON THE OCEAN. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVY CONDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH WILL EXIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND CRITERIA LOOKS TO FALL SHORT IN SEVERAL
AREAS...AND FORECAST RH VALUES FALL SHORT FOR SOME SPOTS. 1 AND
1O HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE LOWERED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO AN SPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE APPROPRIATE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250514
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
114 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 111 AM EDT SATURDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO FRESH UP THE
POPS...TEMPS...AND WINDS WITH CRNT RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS. WINTER
HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING WITH WHITEFACE
REPORTING A CRNT TEMP OF 16F AND A WIND CHILL OF -8F.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH. CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHER TRRN OF NORTHERN NY/VT AND WILL
CONT TO MENTION CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS. A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY MORNING. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL ONLY DROP ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO...GIVEN WINDS AND CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 403 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE MOISTURE
ROTATING SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY...SO
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE WARMER THAN
TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY FROM THE
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
(MAINLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS). MOS GUIDANCE
AGAIN LOOKS TOO WARM FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT FRIDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL FINALLY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF EXITING THE REGION AS A
MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND ON MONDAY IT WILL COMBINE WITH
A WEAK SURFACE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SUMMITS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT THAT SHOULD ONLY
REALLY BE IN AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

THEN TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BRINING ABOUT A WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WITH DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS SHUTTING DOWN SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE MID
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE PROBLEM IS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
EXACTLY THE SITUATION WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE 00Z TO 12Z
RUNS FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME A FISH STORM AND PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFFECTING ONLY MARINERS. AS SUCH I WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND
CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND
GRADUALLY WARM UNDER THE RIDGING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS. THEN AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
IN LATE IN THE WEEK WE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COLDER TRENDING BACK
DOWN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE SUMMITS IN THE
UPPER 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MIX OF VFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT
INTO PART OF THE MORNING SATURDAY, BECOMING ALL VFR REST OF
SATURDAY.

STAGNANT UPPER LOW AND WRAP-AROUND ATLANTIC MOISTURE LEADING TO
PERSISTENT OVC CEILINGS AROUND 4-5KFT AT THE TERMINALS. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE OTTAWA VALLEY WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT, BRINGING ABOUT A LOWER IN CEILINGS
TO VFR/MVFR AROUND 07Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL DEEPER
MOISTURE PUSHES SOUTHWARD TOWARD MORNING, AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AT MPV GIVEN
PARTIALLY BLOCKED FLOW PER BTV-4 FROUDE NUMBER PROGS. NORTHWEST
WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS.

ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDS AROUND 15Z SATURDAY AS
VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE SHRINKS A BIT. SHOULD ALSO SEE AN
ACCOMPANYING RISE OF CEILINGS TO OVC VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE
AROUND 10 KTS SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO/MV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 250514
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
114 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 111 AM EDT SATURDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO FRESH UP THE
POPS...TEMPS...AND WINDS WITH CRNT RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS. WINTER
HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING WITH WHITEFACE
REPORTING A CRNT TEMP OF 16F AND A WIND CHILL OF -8F.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH. CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHER TRRN OF NORTHERN NY/VT AND WILL
CONT TO MENTION CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS. A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY MORNING. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL ONLY DROP ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO...GIVEN WINDS AND CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 403 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE MOISTURE
ROTATING SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY...SO
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE WARMER THAN
TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY FROM THE
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
(MAINLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS). MOS GUIDANCE
AGAIN LOOKS TOO WARM FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT FRIDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL FINALLY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF EXITING THE REGION AS A
MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND ON MONDAY IT WILL COMBINE WITH
A WEAK SURFACE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SUMMITS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT THAT SHOULD ONLY
REALLY BE IN AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

THEN TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BRINING ABOUT A WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WITH DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS SHUTTING DOWN SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE MID
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE PROBLEM IS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
EXACTLY THE SITUATION WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE 00Z TO 12Z
RUNS FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME A FISH STORM AND PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFFECTING ONLY MARINERS. AS SUCH I WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND
CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND
GRADUALLY WARM UNDER THE RIDGING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS. THEN AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
IN LATE IN THE WEEK WE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COLDER TRENDING BACK
DOWN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE SUMMITS IN THE
UPPER 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MIX OF VFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT
INTO PART OF THE MORNING SATURDAY, BECOMING ALL VFR REST OF
SATURDAY.

STAGNANT UPPER LOW AND WRAP-AROUND ATLANTIC MOISTURE LEADING TO
PERSISTENT OVC CEILINGS AROUND 4-5KFT AT THE TERMINALS. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE OTTAWA VALLEY WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT, BRINGING ABOUT A LOWER IN CEILINGS
TO VFR/MVFR AROUND 07Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL DEEPER
MOISTURE PUSHES SOUTHWARD TOWARD MORNING, AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AT MPV GIVEN
PARTIALLY BLOCKED FLOW PER BTV-4 FROUDE NUMBER PROGS. NORTHWEST
WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS.

ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDS AROUND 15Z SATURDAY AS
VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE SHRINKS A BIT. SHOULD ALSO SEE AN
ACCOMPANYING RISE OF CEILINGS TO OVC VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE
AROUND 10 KTS SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO/MV



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBGM 250512
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
112 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
925 PM UPDATE...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS EVENING AS MID LEVELS WARM SLIGHTLY ALONG WITH SFC RIDGING.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY DAYBREAK. FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

200 PM UPDATE...
MODELS DID A POOR JOB EARLIER WITH ACCOUNTING FOR AMOUNT OF LAKE
MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT, AND THE RESULT HAS BEEN A THICKER CLOUD
COVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE
RIDGE PUSHES FROM MICHIGAN TOWARD WESTERN NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY
CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S.

1050 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS, DECIDED TO
LOWER MAXES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. MAXES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY WHEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
205 PM UPDATE...
RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN FROM MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. 925MB TEMPS IMPROVE TO 3-4C, BUT STILL
QUITE COOL FOR LATE APRIL. THEREFOR EVEN WITH FULL SUN OR NEAR
FULL SUN, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET BEYOND THE LOWER 50S.

A WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NY SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT OPTED TO FORECAST FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE.

STACKED CYCLONE BACKS TOWARD REGION ON SUNDAY. SO FAR THE TIMING
SUGGESTS ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA. A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE ROTATES BACK
INTO MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS AND EURO IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONT TO SHOW A DEEP UPR AND
SFC LOW OFF THE NE US CST AND RDGG OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
TUE. BEYOND THAT...DFRNCS ARISE OVER THE HANDLING OF BOTH NRN AND
SRN STREAM WVS INTO MID WEEK. THE EURO KEEPS RDGG IN PLACE OVER
THE LAKES AS IT SLOWLY MVES EAST TO OUR AREA AND WED...WHILE
STRONGLY DVLPG A SRN STREAM STORM OVER THE GULF CST. GFS KEEP AN
OPEN UPR WV TO THE SOUTH WHILE PUSHING YET ANOTHER STRONG NRN
STREAM WV INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC TROF. DFRNC IN THE SENSIBLE WX
FOR US WLD BE A MILDER AND DRIER EARLY WEEK FROM THE EURO...COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED FROM THE GFS.

HPC GUID SEEMED LIKE A COMPROMISE AND A DVLPS A GRADUAL WRMG TREND
INTO WED WHILE BRINGING A SLGT CHANCE OF SHWRS AS THE GULF CST LOW
BOMBS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC CST.

GFS ENDS IN A SIMILAR PLACE BY THU WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING A
RETURN TO A LONG WV TROF OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EST CST AND NW
FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SAT UPDATE... VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF PD (TIL
06Z SUN).

W TO NW SFC WINDS 5-10 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL INCREASE TO 10-15
KT FROM LATE MRNG-AFTN...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGN AFTER 00Z SUN.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN-WED...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 250512
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
112 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
925 PM UPDATE...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS EVENING AS MID LEVELS WARM SLIGHTLY ALONG WITH SFC RIDGING.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY DAYBREAK. FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

200 PM UPDATE...
MODELS DID A POOR JOB EARLIER WITH ACCOUNTING FOR AMOUNT OF LAKE
MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT, AND THE RESULT HAS BEEN A THICKER CLOUD
COVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE
RIDGE PUSHES FROM MICHIGAN TOWARD WESTERN NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY
CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S.

1050 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS, DECIDED TO
LOWER MAXES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. MAXES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY WHEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
205 PM UPDATE...
RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN FROM MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. 925MB TEMPS IMPROVE TO 3-4C, BUT STILL
QUITE COOL FOR LATE APRIL. THEREFOR EVEN WITH FULL SUN OR NEAR
FULL SUN, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET BEYOND THE LOWER 50S.

A WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NY SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT OPTED TO FORECAST FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE.

STACKED CYCLONE BACKS TOWARD REGION ON SUNDAY. SO FAR THE TIMING
SUGGESTS ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA. A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE ROTATES BACK
INTO MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS AND EURO IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONT TO SHOW A DEEP UPR AND
SFC LOW OFF THE NE US CST AND RDGG OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
TUE. BEYOND THAT...DFRNCS ARISE OVER THE HANDLING OF BOTH NRN AND
SRN STREAM WVS INTO MID WEEK. THE EURO KEEPS RDGG IN PLACE OVER
THE LAKES AS IT SLOWLY MVES EAST TO OUR AREA AND WED...WHILE
STRONGLY DVLPG A SRN STREAM STORM OVER THE GULF CST. GFS KEEP AN
OPEN UPR WV TO THE SOUTH WHILE PUSHING YET ANOTHER STRONG NRN
STREAM WV INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC TROF. DFRNC IN THE SENSIBLE WX
FOR US WLD BE A MILDER AND DRIER EARLY WEEK FROM THE EURO...COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED FROM THE GFS.

HPC GUID SEEMED LIKE A COMPROMISE AND A DVLPS A GRADUAL WRMG TREND
INTO WED WHILE BRINGING A SLGT CHANCE OF SHWRS AS THE GULF CST LOW
BOMBS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC CST.

GFS ENDS IN A SIMILAR PLACE BY THU WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING A
RETURN TO A LONG WV TROF OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EST CST AND NW
FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SAT UPDATE... VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF PD (TIL
06Z SUN).

W TO NW SFC WINDS 5-10 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL INCREASE TO 10-15
KT FROM LATE MRNG-AFTN...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGN AFTER 00Z SUN.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN-WED...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 250512
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
112 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
925 PM UPDATE...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS EVENING AS MID LEVELS WARM SLIGHTLY ALONG WITH SFC RIDGING.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY DAYBREAK. FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

200 PM UPDATE...
MODELS DID A POOR JOB EARLIER WITH ACCOUNTING FOR AMOUNT OF LAKE
MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT, AND THE RESULT HAS BEEN A THICKER CLOUD
COVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE
RIDGE PUSHES FROM MICHIGAN TOWARD WESTERN NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY
CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S.

1050 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS, DECIDED TO
LOWER MAXES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. MAXES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY WHEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
205 PM UPDATE...
RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN FROM MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. 925MB TEMPS IMPROVE TO 3-4C, BUT STILL
QUITE COOL FOR LATE APRIL. THEREFOR EVEN WITH FULL SUN OR NEAR
FULL SUN, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET BEYOND THE LOWER 50S.

A WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NY SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT OPTED TO FORECAST FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE.

STACKED CYCLONE BACKS TOWARD REGION ON SUNDAY. SO FAR THE TIMING
SUGGESTS ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA. A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE ROTATES BACK
INTO MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS AND EURO IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONT TO SHOW A DEEP UPR AND
SFC LOW OFF THE NE US CST AND RDGG OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
TUE. BEYOND THAT...DFRNCS ARISE OVER THE HANDLING OF BOTH NRN AND
SRN STREAM WVS INTO MID WEEK. THE EURO KEEPS RDGG IN PLACE OVER
THE LAKES AS IT SLOWLY MVES EAST TO OUR AREA AND WED...WHILE
STRONGLY DVLPG A SRN STREAM STORM OVER THE GULF CST. GFS KEEP AN
OPEN UPR WV TO THE SOUTH WHILE PUSHING YET ANOTHER STRONG NRN
STREAM WV INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC TROF. DFRNC IN THE SENSIBLE WX
FOR US WLD BE A MILDER AND DRIER EARLY WEEK FROM THE EURO...COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED FROM THE GFS.

HPC GUID SEEMED LIKE A COMPROMISE AND A DVLPS A GRADUAL WRMG TREND
INTO WED WHILE BRINGING A SLGT CHANCE OF SHWRS AS THE GULF CST LOW
BOMBS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC CST.

GFS ENDS IN A SIMILAR PLACE BY THU WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING A
RETURN TO A LONG WV TROF OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EST CST AND NW
FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SAT UPDATE... VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF PD (TIL
06Z SUN).

W TO NW SFC WINDS 5-10 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL INCREASE TO 10-15
KT FROM LATE MRNG-AFTN...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGN AFTER 00Z SUN.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN-WED...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 250512
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
112 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
925 PM UPDATE...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS EVENING AS MID LEVELS WARM SLIGHTLY ALONG WITH SFC RIDGING.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY DAYBREAK. FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

200 PM UPDATE...
MODELS DID A POOR JOB EARLIER WITH ACCOUNTING FOR AMOUNT OF LAKE
MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT, AND THE RESULT HAS BEEN A THICKER CLOUD
COVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE
RIDGE PUSHES FROM MICHIGAN TOWARD WESTERN NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY
CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S.

1050 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS, DECIDED TO
LOWER MAXES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. MAXES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY WHEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
205 PM UPDATE...
RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN FROM MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. 925MB TEMPS IMPROVE TO 3-4C, BUT STILL
QUITE COOL FOR LATE APRIL. THEREFOR EVEN WITH FULL SUN OR NEAR
FULL SUN, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET BEYOND THE LOWER 50S.

A WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NY SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT OPTED TO FORECAST FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE.

STACKED CYCLONE BACKS TOWARD REGION ON SUNDAY. SO FAR THE TIMING
SUGGESTS ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA. A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE ROTATES BACK
INTO MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS AND EURO IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONT TO SHOW A DEEP UPR AND
SFC LOW OFF THE NE US CST AND RDGG OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
TUE. BEYOND THAT...DFRNCS ARISE OVER THE HANDLING OF BOTH NRN AND
SRN STREAM WVS INTO MID WEEK. THE EURO KEEPS RDGG IN PLACE OVER
THE LAKES AS IT SLOWLY MVES EAST TO OUR AREA AND WED...WHILE
STRONGLY DVLPG A SRN STREAM STORM OVER THE GULF CST. GFS KEEP AN
OPEN UPR WV TO THE SOUTH WHILE PUSHING YET ANOTHER STRONG NRN
STREAM WV INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC TROF. DFRNC IN THE SENSIBLE WX
FOR US WLD BE A MILDER AND DRIER EARLY WEEK FROM THE EURO...COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED FROM THE GFS.

HPC GUID SEEMED LIKE A COMPROMISE AND A DVLPS A GRADUAL WRMG TREND
INTO WED WHILE BRINGING A SLGT CHANCE OF SHWRS AS THE GULF CST LOW
BOMBS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC CST.

GFS ENDS IN A SIMILAR PLACE BY THU WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING A
RETURN TO A LONG WV TROF OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EST CST AND NW
FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SAT UPDATE... VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF PD (TIL
06Z SUN).

W TO NW SFC WINDS 5-10 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL INCREASE TO 10-15
KT FROM LATE MRNG-AFTN...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGN AFTER 00Z SUN.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN-WED...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 250512
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
112 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
925 PM UPDATE...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS EVENING AS MID LEVELS WARM SLIGHTLY ALONG WITH SFC RIDGING.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY DAYBREAK. FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

200 PM UPDATE...
MODELS DID A POOR JOB EARLIER WITH ACCOUNTING FOR AMOUNT OF LAKE
MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT, AND THE RESULT HAS BEEN A THICKER CLOUD
COVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE
RIDGE PUSHES FROM MICHIGAN TOWARD WESTERN NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY
CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S.

1050 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS, DECIDED TO
LOWER MAXES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. MAXES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY WHEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
205 PM UPDATE...
RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN FROM MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. 925MB TEMPS IMPROVE TO 3-4C, BUT STILL
QUITE COOL FOR LATE APRIL. THEREFOR EVEN WITH FULL SUN OR NEAR
FULL SUN, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET BEYOND THE LOWER 50S.

A WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NY SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT OPTED TO FORECAST FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE.

STACKED CYCLONE BACKS TOWARD REGION ON SUNDAY. SO FAR THE TIMING
SUGGESTS ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA. A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE ROTATES BACK
INTO MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS AND EURO IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONT TO SHOW A DEEP UPR AND
SFC LOW OFF THE NE US CST AND RDGG OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
TUE. BEYOND THAT...DFRNCS ARISE OVER THE HANDLING OF BOTH NRN AND
SRN STREAM WVS INTO MID WEEK. THE EURO KEEPS RDGG IN PLACE OVER
THE LAKES AS IT SLOWLY MVES EAST TO OUR AREA AND WED...WHILE
STRONGLY DVLPG A SRN STREAM STORM OVER THE GULF CST. GFS KEEP AN
OPEN UPR WV TO THE SOUTH WHILE PUSHING YET ANOTHER STRONG NRN
STREAM WV INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC TROF. DFRNC IN THE SENSIBLE WX
FOR US WLD BE A MILDER AND DRIER EARLY WEEK FROM THE EURO...COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED FROM THE GFS.

HPC GUID SEEMED LIKE A COMPROMISE AND A DVLPS A GRADUAL WRMG TREND
INTO WED WHILE BRINGING A SLGT CHANCE OF SHWRS AS THE GULF CST LOW
BOMBS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC CST.

GFS ENDS IN A SIMILAR PLACE BY THU WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING A
RETURN TO A LONG WV TROF OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EST CST AND NW
FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SAT UPDATE... VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF PD (TIL
06Z SUN).

W TO NW SFC WINDS 5-10 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL INCREASE TO 10-15
KT FROM LATE MRNG-AFTN...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGN AFTER 00Z SUN.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN-WED...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM



000
FXUS61 KBGM 250512
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
112 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
925 PM UPDATE...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS EVENING AS MID LEVELS WARM SLIGHTLY ALONG WITH SFC RIDGING.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY DAYBREAK. FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

200 PM UPDATE...
MODELS DID A POOR JOB EARLIER WITH ACCOUNTING FOR AMOUNT OF LAKE
MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT, AND THE RESULT HAS BEEN A THICKER CLOUD
COVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE
RIDGE PUSHES FROM MICHIGAN TOWARD WESTERN NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY
CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S.

1050 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS, DECIDED TO
LOWER MAXES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. MAXES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY WHEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
205 PM UPDATE...
RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN FROM MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. 925MB TEMPS IMPROVE TO 3-4C, BUT STILL
QUITE COOL FOR LATE APRIL. THEREFOR EVEN WITH FULL SUN OR NEAR
FULL SUN, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET BEYOND THE LOWER 50S.

A WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NY SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT OPTED TO FORECAST FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE.

STACKED CYCLONE BACKS TOWARD REGION ON SUNDAY. SO FAR THE TIMING
SUGGESTS ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA. A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE ROTATES BACK
INTO MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS AND EURO IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONT TO SHOW A DEEP UPR AND
SFC LOW OFF THE NE US CST AND RDGG OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
TUE. BEYOND THAT...DFRNCS ARISE OVER THE HANDLING OF BOTH NRN AND
SRN STREAM WVS INTO MID WEEK. THE EURO KEEPS RDGG IN PLACE OVER
THE LAKES AS IT SLOWLY MVES EAST TO OUR AREA AND WED...WHILE
STRONGLY DVLPG A SRN STREAM STORM OVER THE GULF CST. GFS KEEP AN
OPEN UPR WV TO THE SOUTH WHILE PUSHING YET ANOTHER STRONG NRN
STREAM WV INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC TROF. DFRNC IN THE SENSIBLE WX
FOR US WLD BE A MILDER AND DRIER EARLY WEEK FROM THE EURO...COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED FROM THE GFS.

HPC GUID SEEMED LIKE A COMPROMISE AND A DVLPS A GRADUAL WRMG TREND
INTO WED WHILE BRINGING A SLGT CHANCE OF SHWRS AS THE GULF CST LOW
BOMBS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC CST.

GFS ENDS IN A SIMILAR PLACE BY THU WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING A
RETURN TO A LONG WV TROF OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EST CST AND NW
FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SAT UPDATE... VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF PD (TIL
06Z SUN).

W TO NW SFC WINDS 5-10 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL INCREASE TO 10-15
KT FROM LATE MRNG-AFTN...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGN AFTER 00Z SUN.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN-WED...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 250511
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING NORTH OF I90 AS DRIER
AIR GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME STILL
PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRAL TOWARDS
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON THE RADAR COMING DOWN FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
NEAR WHITEHALL AND A FEW FLURRIES SEEN ON THE WEBCAMS INTO THE
DACKS. THIS TREND SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD TO NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND WARMER TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD MARKS A TRANSITION TO A WARMING PATTERN.  WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MOST ABUNDANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION OVER MAINE...CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. SCT-
BKN CLOUDS AT 4-6 KFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH DRY
AIR HAS WORKED IN TO ALLOW FOR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AT KPOU. W-NW
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR ALL SITES...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE
MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING DAYTIME HEATING...ESP FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. AS A RESULT...SCT-BKN CLOUDS OF 5-6 KFT WILL
CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AND FLYING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR. DURING DAYTIME MIXING...NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS
WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF
POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR SAT NIGHT
FROM A W-NW DIRECTION. CLOUDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR SAT
NIGHT AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY STILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM




000
FXUS61 KALY 250511
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING NORTH OF I90 AS DRIER
AIR GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME STILL
PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRAL TOWARDS
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON THE RADAR COMING DOWN FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
NEAR WHITEHALL AND A FEW FLURRIES SEEN ON THE WEBCAMS INTO THE
DACKS. THIS TREND SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD TO NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND WARMER TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD MARKS A TRANSITION TO A WARMING PATTERN.  WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MOST ABUNDANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION OVER MAINE...CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. SCT-
BKN CLOUDS AT 4-6 KFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH DRY
AIR HAS WORKED IN TO ALLOW FOR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AT KPOU. W-NW
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR ALL SITES...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE
MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING DAYTIME HEATING...ESP FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. AS A RESULT...SCT-BKN CLOUDS OF 5-6 KFT WILL
CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AND FLYING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR. DURING DAYTIME MIXING...NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS
WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF
POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR SAT NIGHT
FROM A W-NW DIRECTION. CLOUDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR SAT
NIGHT AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY STILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 250511
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING NORTH OF I90 AS DRIER
AIR GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME STILL
PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRAL TOWARDS
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON THE RADAR COMING DOWN FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
NEAR WHITEHALL AND A FEW FLURRIES SEEN ON THE WEBCAMS INTO THE
DACKS. THIS TREND SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD TO NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND WARMER TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD MARKS A TRANSITION TO A WARMING PATTERN.  WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MOST ABUNDANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION OVER MAINE...CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. SCT-
BKN CLOUDS AT 4-6 KFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH DRY
AIR HAS WORKED IN TO ALLOW FOR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AT KPOU. W-NW
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR ALL SITES...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE
MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING DAYTIME HEATING...ESP FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. AS A RESULT...SCT-BKN CLOUDS OF 5-6 KFT WILL
CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AND FLYING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR. DURING DAYTIME MIXING...NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS
WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF
POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR SAT NIGHT
FROM A W-NW DIRECTION. CLOUDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR SAT
NIGHT AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY STILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 250503
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING NORTH OF I90 AS DRIER
AIR GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME STILL
PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRAL TOWARDS
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON THE RADAR COMING DOWN FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
NEAR WHITEHALL AND A FEW FLURRIES SEEN ON THE WEBCAMS INTO THE
DACKS. THIS TREND SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD TO NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND WARMER TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD MARKS A TRANSITION TO A WARMING PATTERN.  WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MOST ABUNDANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN VFR RANGE AROUND 4-6 KFT EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DIMINISHED SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ENDING 00Z SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 8-13 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS AT
KALB/KPSF...WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AFTER
MIXING COMMENCES SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY STILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 250503
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING NORTH OF I90 AS DRIER
AIR GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME STILL
PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRAL TOWARDS
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON THE RADAR COMING DOWN FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
NEAR WHITEHALL AND A FEW FLURRIES SEEN ON THE WEBCAMS INTO THE
DACKS. THIS TREND SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD TO NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND WARMER TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD MARKS A TRANSITION TO A WARMING PATTERN.  WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MOST ABUNDANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN VFR RANGE AROUND 4-6 KFT EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DIMINISHED SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ENDING 00Z SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 8-13 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS AT
KALB/KPSF...WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AFTER
MIXING COMMENCES SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY STILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM




000
FXUS61 KALY 250503
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING NORTH OF I90 AS DRIER
AIR GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME STILL
PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRAL TOWARDS
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON THE RADAR COMING DOWN FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
NEAR WHITEHALL AND A FEW FLURRIES SEEN ON THE WEBCAMS INTO THE
DACKS. THIS TREND SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD TO NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND WARMER TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD MARKS A TRANSITION TO A WARMING PATTERN.  WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MOST ABUNDANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN VFR RANGE AROUND 4-6 KFT EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DIMINISHED SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ENDING 00Z SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 8-13 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS AT
KALB/KPSF...WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AFTER
MIXING COMMENCES SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY STILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KOKX 250409
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1209 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE PRIMARILY FOR MARINE HEADLINES. THE FCST IS ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A MOS BLEND WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE BORDERLINE...BUT
WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS EXPECTED...SO FEEL
FREEZE WARNING IS STILL WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NW TO NNW FLOW WILL DIMINISH
AND BACK WNW OVERNIGHT. GUSTS SHOULD RESUME DURING THE
MORNING...THEN WINDS SHOULD BACK WSW TO SW AT NEAR COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND W ELSEWHERE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE PROTECTED WATERS CANCELLED WITH WINDS BLW 25 KT. THE
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 6 AM ON THE OCEAN. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVY CONDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH WILL EXIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND CRITERIA LOOKS TO FALL SHORT IN SEVERAL
AREAS...AND FORECAST RH VALUES FALL SHORT FOR SOME SPOTS. 1 AND
1O HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE LOWERED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO AN SPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE APPROPRIATE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 250409
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1209 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE PRIMARILY FOR MARINE HEADLINES. THE FCST IS ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A MOS BLEND WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE BORDERLINE...BUT
WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS EXPECTED...SO FEEL
FREEZE WARNING IS STILL WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NW TO NNW FLOW WILL DIMINISH
AND BACK WNW OVERNIGHT. GUSTS SHOULD RESUME DURING THE
MORNING...THEN WINDS SHOULD BACK WSW TO SW AT NEAR COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND W ELSEWHERE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE PROTECTED WATERS CANCELLED WITH WINDS BLW 25 KT. THE
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 6 AM ON THE OCEAN. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVY CONDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH WILL EXIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND CRITERIA LOOKS TO FALL SHORT IN SEVERAL
AREAS...AND FORECAST RH VALUES FALL SHORT FOR SOME SPOTS. 1 AND
1O HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE LOWERED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO AN SPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE APPROPRIATE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 250250
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1050 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATES MADE MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING.
FORECAST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A MOS BLEND WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE BORDERLINE...BUT
WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS EXPECTED...SO FEEL
FREEZE WARNING IS STILL WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NW TO NNW FLOW WILL DIMINISH
AND BACK WNW OVERNIGHT. GUSTS SHOULD RESUME DURING THE
MORNING...THEN WINDS SHOULD BACK WSW TO SW AT NEAR COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND W ELSEWHERE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVY CONDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH WILL EXIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND CRITERIA LOOKS TO FALL SHORT IN SEVERAL
AREAS...AND FORECAST RH VALUES FALL SHORT FOR SOME SPOTS. 1 AND
1O HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE LOWERED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO AN SPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE APPROPRIATE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ002-004-103>105-
     107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 250250
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1050 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATES MADE MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING.
FORECAST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A MOS BLEND WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE BORDERLINE...BUT
WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS EXPECTED...SO FEEL
FREEZE WARNING IS STILL WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NW TO NNW FLOW WILL DIMINISH
AND BACK WNW OVERNIGHT. GUSTS SHOULD RESUME DURING THE
MORNING...THEN WINDS SHOULD BACK WSW TO SW AT NEAR COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND W ELSEWHERE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVY CONDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH WILL EXIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND CRITERIA LOOKS TO FALL SHORT IN SEVERAL
AREAS...AND FORECAST RH VALUES FALL SHORT FOR SOME SPOTS. 1 AND
1O HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE LOWERED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO AN SPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE APPROPRIATE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ002-004-103>105-
     107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250229
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1029 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
CLOUDY SKIES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A FEW MOUNTAIN FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN GREENS LATER TONIGHT AS
VORT LOBE AND SOME DEEPER MOISTURE DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AROUND CLOSED UPPER LOW. TEMPS WILL NOT BE FALLING MUCH DUE
CLOUDS AND SOME WIND. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 403 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE MOISTURE
ROTATING SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY...SO
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE WARMER THAN
TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY FROM THE
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
(MAINLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS). MOS GUIDANCE
AGAIN LOOKS TOO WARM FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT FRIDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL FINALLY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF EXITING THE REGION AS A
MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND ON MONDAY IT WILL COMBINE WITH
A WEAK SURFACE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SUMMITS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT THAT SHOULD ONLY
REALLY BE IN AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

THEN TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BRINING ABOUT A WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WITH DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS SHUTTING DOWN SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE MID
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE PROBLEM IS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
EXACTLY THE SITUATION WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE 00Z TO 12Z
RUNS FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME A FISH STORM AND PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFFECTING ONLY MARINERS. AS SUCH I WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND
CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND
GRADUALLY WARM UNDER THE RIDGING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS. THEN AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
IN LATE IN THE WEEK WE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COLDER TRENDING BACK
DOWN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE SUMMITS IN THE
UPPER 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MIX OF VFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT
INTO PART OF THE MORNING SATURDAY, BECOMING ALL VFR REST OF
SATURDAY.

STAGNANT UPPER LOW AND WRAP-AROUND ATLANTIC MOISTURE LEADING TO
PERSISTENT OVC CEILINGS AROUND 4-5KFT AT THE TERMINALS. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE OTTAWA VALLEY WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT, BRINGING ABOUT A LOWER IN CEILINGS
TO VFR/MVFR AROUND 07Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL DEEPER
MOISTURE PUSHES SOUTHWARD TOWARD MORNING, AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AT MPV GIVEN
PARTIALLY BLOCKED FLOW PER BTV-4 FROUDE NUMBER PROGS. NORTHWEST
WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS.

ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDS AROUND 15Z SATURDAY AS
VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE SHRINKS A BIT. SHOULD ALSO SEE AN
ACCOMPANYING RISE OF CEILINGS TO OVC VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE
AROUND 10 KTS SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO/MV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 250229
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1029 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
CLOUDY SKIES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A FEW MOUNTAIN FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN GREENS LATER TONIGHT AS
VORT LOBE AND SOME DEEPER MOISTURE DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AROUND CLOSED UPPER LOW. TEMPS WILL NOT BE FALLING MUCH DUE
CLOUDS AND SOME WIND. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 403 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE MOISTURE
ROTATING SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY...SO
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE WARMER THAN
TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY FROM THE
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
(MAINLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS). MOS GUIDANCE
AGAIN LOOKS TOO WARM FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT FRIDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL FINALLY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF EXITING THE REGION AS A
MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND ON MONDAY IT WILL COMBINE WITH
A WEAK SURFACE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SUMMITS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT THAT SHOULD ONLY
REALLY BE IN AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

THEN TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BRINING ABOUT A WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WITH DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS SHUTTING DOWN SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE MID
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE PROBLEM IS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
EXACTLY THE SITUATION WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE 00Z TO 12Z
RUNS FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME A FISH STORM AND PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFFECTING ONLY MARINERS. AS SUCH I WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND
CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND
GRADUALLY WARM UNDER THE RIDGING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS. THEN AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
IN LATE IN THE WEEK WE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COLDER TRENDING BACK
DOWN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE SUMMITS IN THE
UPPER 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MIX OF VFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT
INTO PART OF THE MORNING SATURDAY, BECOMING ALL VFR REST OF
SATURDAY.

STAGNANT UPPER LOW AND WRAP-AROUND ATLANTIC MOISTURE LEADING TO
PERSISTENT OVC CEILINGS AROUND 4-5KFT AT THE TERMINALS. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE OTTAWA VALLEY WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT, BRINGING ABOUT A LOWER IN CEILINGS
TO VFR/MVFR AROUND 07Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL DEEPER
MOISTURE PUSHES SOUTHWARD TOWARD MORNING, AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AT MPV GIVEN
PARTIALLY BLOCKED FLOW PER BTV-4 FROUDE NUMBER PROGS. NORTHWEST
WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS.

ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDS AROUND 15Z SATURDAY AS
VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE SHRINKS A BIT. SHOULD ALSO SEE AN
ACCOMPANYING RISE OF CEILINGS TO OVC VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE
AROUND 10 KTS SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO/MV




000
FXUS61 KBUF 250227
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1027 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
PERSISTENT LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED NICELY THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY...WITH ONE LAST PATCH OF PESKY CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN
FINGER LAKES. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE WITH LIVINGSTON
AND ONTARIO COUNTIES CLEARING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE NORTH
COUNTRY IS A DIFFERENT STORY STILL IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
STALLED VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN NY OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK ASCENT AS NUMEROUS VORTICITY MAXIMA
ROTATE AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW. A LOBE OF DEEPER MOISTURE APPARENT
IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
AND WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. RADAR EVEN SHOWS SOME WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AND THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES
OVERNIGHT.

OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THE CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS IN
THIS COLD/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST INLAND AREAS...WITH
SOME OF THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY IN THE LOWER
30S OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

ON SATURDAY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRUSH THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY POP DURING
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY. CLOUDS WILL STILL BE MORE PERSISTENT EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MARITIMES LOW. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AT BEST...WITH SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LIKELY STAYING
MOSTLY CLOUDY.

850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -3C OR SO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT LOW
50S IN MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE
IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER VALLEYS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER. GRADIENT ONSHORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...AND A LOCAL LAKE BREEZE MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEAR
BUFFALO AND KEEP DOWNTOWN COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE GRIDDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH NO CHANGES WARRANTED.

A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC...AND A SPOKE OF UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND.

THE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...SPINNING SOME WEAK LIFT AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE SUNDAY. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT IN THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS...MAKING RAIN SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THERE. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY / UP TO AROUND -2 C/ AND SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED LIFT REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW RETROGRADES BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE ON MONDAY WITH
THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...THE NUISANCE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW WARMING
TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ON HOW
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER AIRMASS
IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE WEEK AS
THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE
EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR MOST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE LOW. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH A FEW
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS NOW DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE
THE LAST TO SEE LESSENING WIND AND WAVE ACTION...BUT EVEN HERE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND
WAVES FOR SATURDAY WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING. NORTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS PESKY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BROADENS ITS INFLUENCE AGAIN...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 250227
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1027 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
PERSISTENT LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED NICELY THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY...WITH ONE LAST PATCH OF PESKY CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN
FINGER LAKES. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE WITH LIVINGSTON
AND ONTARIO COUNTIES CLEARING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE NORTH
COUNTRY IS A DIFFERENT STORY STILL IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
STALLED VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN NY OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK ASCENT AS NUMEROUS VORTICITY MAXIMA
ROTATE AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW. A LOBE OF DEEPER MOISTURE APPARENT
IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
AND WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. RADAR EVEN SHOWS SOME WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AND THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES
OVERNIGHT.

OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THE CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS IN
THIS COLD/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST INLAND AREAS...WITH
SOME OF THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY IN THE LOWER
30S OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

ON SATURDAY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRUSH THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY POP DURING
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY. CLOUDS WILL STILL BE MORE PERSISTENT EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MARITIMES LOW. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AT BEST...WITH SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LIKELY STAYING
MOSTLY CLOUDY.

850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -3C OR SO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT LOW
50S IN MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE
IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER VALLEYS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER. GRADIENT ONSHORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...AND A LOCAL LAKE BREEZE MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEAR
BUFFALO AND KEEP DOWNTOWN COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE GRIDDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH NO CHANGES WARRANTED.

A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC...AND A SPOKE OF UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND.

THE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...SPINNING SOME WEAK LIFT AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE SUNDAY. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT IN THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS...MAKING RAIN SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THERE. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY / UP TO AROUND -2 C/ AND SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED LIFT REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW RETROGRADES BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE ON MONDAY WITH
THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...THE NUISANCE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW WARMING
TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ON HOW
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER AIRMASS
IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE WEEK AS
THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE
EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR MOST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE LOW. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH A FEW
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS NOW DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE
THE LAST TO SEE LESSENING WIND AND WAVE ACTION...BUT EVEN HERE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND
WAVES FOR SATURDAY WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING. NORTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS PESKY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BROADENS ITS INFLUENCE AGAIN...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK





000
FXUS61 KALY 250223
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1023 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1023 PM EDT...CLOUDS STARTING TO ERODE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST AND DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME STILL PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL BECOME MORE
NEUTRAL TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST
AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND WARMER TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD MARKS A TRANSITION TO A WARMING PATTERN.  WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MOST ABUNDANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN VFR RANGE AROUND 4-6 KFT EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DIMINISHED SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ENDING 00Z SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 8-13 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS AT
KALB/KPSF...WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AFTER
MIXING COMMENCES SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY STILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 250223
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1023 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1023 PM EDT...CLOUDS STARTING TO ERODE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST AND DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME STILL PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL BECOME MORE
NEUTRAL TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST
AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND WARMER TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD MARKS A TRANSITION TO A WARMING PATTERN.  WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MOST ABUNDANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN VFR RANGE AROUND 4-6 KFT EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DIMINISHED SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ENDING 00Z SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 8-13 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS AT
KALB/KPSF...WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AFTER
MIXING COMMENCES SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY STILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM




000
FXUS61 KALY 250223
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1023 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1023 PM EDT...CLOUDS STARTING TO ERODE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST AND DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME STILL PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL BECOME MORE
NEUTRAL TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST
AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND WARMER TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD MARKS A TRANSITION TO A WARMING PATTERN.  WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MOST ABUNDANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN VFR RANGE AROUND 4-6 KFT EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DIMINISHED SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ENDING 00Z SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 8-13 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS AT
KALB/KPSF...WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AFTER
MIXING COMMENCES SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY STILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 250214
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1014 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATES MADE MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING. FORECAST
OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A MOS BLEND WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE BORDERLINE...BUT
WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS EXPECTED...SO FEEL
FREEZE WARNING IS STILL WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY. VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NW TO NNW FLOW WILL DIMINISH AND
BACK WNW LATER TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS RESUMING DURING THE
MORNING...THEN BACK W TO WSW IN THE AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS JUST OVER 30 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVY CONDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH WILL EXIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND CRITERIA LOOKS TO FALL SHORT IN SEVERAL
AREAS...AND FORECAST RH VALUES FALL SHORT FOR SOME SPOTS. 1 AND
1O HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE LOWERED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO AN SPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE APPROPRIATE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ002-004-103>105-
     107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 250214
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1014 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATES MADE MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING. FORECAST
OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A MOS BLEND WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE BORDERLINE...BUT
WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS EXPECTED...SO FEEL
FREEZE WARNING IS STILL WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY. VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NW TO NNW FLOW WILL DIMINISH AND
BACK WNW LATER TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS RESUMING DURING THE
MORNING...THEN BACK W TO WSW IN THE AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS JUST OVER 30 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVY CONDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH WILL EXIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND CRITERIA LOOKS TO FALL SHORT IN SEVERAL
AREAS...AND FORECAST RH VALUES FALL SHORT FOR SOME SPOTS. 1 AND
1O HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE LOWERED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO AN SPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE APPROPRIATE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ002-004-103>105-
     107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 250214
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1014 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATES MADE MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING. FORECAST
OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A MOS BLEND WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE BORDERLINE...BUT
WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS EXPECTED...SO FEEL
FREEZE WARNING IS STILL WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY. VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NW TO NNW FLOW WILL DIMINISH AND
BACK WNW LATER TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS RESUMING DURING THE
MORNING...THEN BACK W TO WSW IN THE AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS JUST OVER 30 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVY CONDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH WILL EXIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND CRITERIA LOOKS TO FALL SHORT IN SEVERAL
AREAS...AND FORECAST RH VALUES FALL SHORT FOR SOME SPOTS. 1 AND
1O HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE LOWERED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO AN SPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE APPROPRIATE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ002-004-103>105-
     107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 250214
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1014 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATES MADE MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING. FORECAST
OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A MOS BLEND WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE BORDERLINE...BUT
WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS EXPECTED...SO FEEL
FREEZE WARNING IS STILL WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY. VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NW TO NNW FLOW WILL DIMINISH AND
BACK WNW LATER TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS RESUMING DURING THE
MORNING...THEN BACK W TO WSW IN THE AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS JUST OVER 30 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVY CONDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH WILL EXIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND CRITERIA LOOKS TO FALL SHORT IN SEVERAL
AREAS...AND FORECAST RH VALUES FALL SHORT FOR SOME SPOTS. 1 AND
1O HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE LOWERED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO AN SPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE APPROPRIATE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ002-004-103>105-
     107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 250214
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1014 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATES MADE MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING. FORECAST
OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A MOS BLEND WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE BORDERLINE...BUT
WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD
IMPACT TEMPS. CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS EXPECTED...SO FEEL
FREEZE WARNING IS STILL WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY. VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NW TO NNW FLOW WILL DIMINISH AND
BACK WNW LATER TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS RESUMING DURING THE
MORNING...THEN BACK W TO WSW IN THE AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS JUST OVER 30 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVY CONDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH WILL EXIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND CRITERIA LOOKS TO FALL SHORT IN SEVERAL
AREAS...AND FORECAST RH VALUES FALL SHORT FOR SOME SPOTS. 1 AND
1O HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE LOWERED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO AN SPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE APPROPRIATE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ002-004-103>105-
     107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBGM 250129
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
929 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
925 PM UPDATE...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS EVENING AS MID LEVELS WARM SLIGHTLY ALONG WITH SFC RIDGING.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY DAYBREAK. FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

200 PM UPDATE...
MODELS DID A POOR JOB EARLIER WITH ACCOUNTING FOR AMOUNT OF LAKE
MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT, AND THE RESULT HAS BEEN A THICKER CLOUD
COVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE
RIDGE PUSHES FROM MICHIGAN TOWARD WESTERN NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY
CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S.

1050 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS, DECIDED TO
LOWER MAXES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. MAXES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY WHEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
205 PM UPDATE...
RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN FROM MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. 925MB TEMPS IMPROVE TO 3-4C, BUT STILL
QUITE COOL FOR LATE APRIL. THEREFOR EVEN WITH FULL SUN OR NEAR
FULL SUN, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET BEYOND THE LOWER 50S.

A WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NY SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT OPTED TO FORECAST FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE.

STACKED CYCLONE BACKS TOWARD REGION ON SUNDAY. SO FAR THE TIMING
SUGGESTS ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA. A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE ROTATES BACK
INTO MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS AND EURO IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONT TO SHOW A DEEP UPR AND
SFC LOW OFF THE NE US CST AND RDGG OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
TUE. BEYOND THAT...DFRNCS ARISE OVER THE HANDLING OF BOTH NRN AND
SRN STREAM WVS INTO MID WEEK. THE EURO KEEPS RDGG IN PLACE OVER
THE LAKES AS IT SLOWLY MVES EAST TO OUR AREA AND WED...WHILE
STRONGLY DVLPG A SRN STREAM STORM OVER THE GULF CST. GFS KEEP AN
OPEN UPR WV TO THE SOUTH WHILE PUSHING YET ANOTHER STRONG NRN
STREAM WV INTO THE WRN ATTLANTIC TROF. DFRNC IN THE SENSIBLE WX
FOR US WLD BE A MILDER AND DRIER EARLY WEEK FROM THE EURO...COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED FROM THE GFS.

HPC GUID SEEMED LIKE A COMPROMISE AND A DVLPS A GRADUAL WRMG TREND
INTO WED WHILE BRINGING A SLGT CHANCE OF SHWRS AS THE GULF CST LOW
BOMBS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC CST.

GFS ENDS IN A SIMILAR PLACE BY THU WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING A
RETURN TO A LONG WV TROF OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EST CST AND NW
FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DUE TO SOME MID LEVEL WARMING AND LOW LEVEL DRYING PERSISTENT
STRATO CU IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING. BY 03Z-04Z
TAF SITES WILL BE SKC OR SCT AROUND 4K FT. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE
IN THE VCNTY ON SATURDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED CU AROUND 4K FT.

W/NW WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS INCREASING BY SATURDAY MID MORNING AT
8-12 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN - WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...RRM



000
FXUS61 KBGM 250129
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
929 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
925 PM UPDATE...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS EVENING AS MID LEVELS WARM SLIGHTLY ALONG WITH SFC RIDGING.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY DAYBREAK. FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

200 PM UPDATE...
MODELS DID A POOR JOB EARLIER WITH ACCOUNTING FOR AMOUNT OF LAKE
MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT, AND THE RESULT HAS BEEN A THICKER CLOUD
COVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE
RIDGE PUSHES FROM MICHIGAN TOWARD WESTERN NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY
CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S.

1050 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS, DECIDED TO
LOWER MAXES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. MAXES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY WHEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
205 PM UPDATE...
RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN FROM MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. 925MB TEMPS IMPROVE TO 3-4C, BUT STILL
QUITE COOL FOR LATE APRIL. THEREFOR EVEN WITH FULL SUN OR NEAR
FULL SUN, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET BEYOND THE LOWER 50S.

A WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NY SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT OPTED TO FORECAST FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE.

STACKED CYCLONE BACKS TOWARD REGION ON SUNDAY. SO FAR THE TIMING
SUGGESTS ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA. A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE ROTATES BACK
INTO MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS AND EURO IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONT TO SHOW A DEEP UPR AND
SFC LOW OFF THE NE US CST AND RDGG OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
TUE. BEYOND THAT...DFRNCS ARISE OVER THE HANDLING OF BOTH NRN AND
SRN STREAM WVS INTO MID WEEK. THE EURO KEEPS RDGG IN PLACE OVER
THE LAKES AS IT SLOWLY MVES EAST TO OUR AREA AND WED...WHILE
STRONGLY DVLPG A SRN STREAM STORM OVER THE GULF CST. GFS KEEP AN
OPEN UPR WV TO THE SOUTH WHILE PUSHING YET ANOTHER STRONG NRN
STREAM WV INTO THE WRN ATTLANTIC TROF. DFRNC IN THE SENSIBLE WX
FOR US WLD BE A MILDER AND DRIER EARLY WEEK FROM THE EURO...COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED FROM THE GFS.

HPC GUID SEEMED LIKE A COMPROMISE AND A DVLPS A GRADUAL WRMG TREND
INTO WED WHILE BRINGING A SLGT CHANCE OF SHWRS AS THE GULF CST LOW
BOMBS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC CST.

GFS ENDS IN A SIMILAR PLACE BY THU WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING A
RETURN TO A LONG WV TROF OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EST CST AND NW
FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DUE TO SOME MID LEVEL WARMING AND LOW LEVEL DRYING PERSISTENT
STRATO CU IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING. BY 03Z-04Z
TAF SITES WILL BE SKC OR SCT AROUND 4K FT. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE
IN THE VCNTY ON SATURDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED CU AROUND 4K FT.

W/NW WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS INCREASING BY SATURDAY MID MORNING AT
8-12 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN - WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...RRM



000
FXUS61 KBGM 250129
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
929 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
925 PM UPDATE...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS EVENING AS MID LEVELS WARM SLIGHTLY ALONG WITH SFC RIDGING.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY DAYBREAK. FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

200 PM UPDATE...
MODELS DID A POOR JOB EARLIER WITH ACCOUNTING FOR AMOUNT OF LAKE
MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT, AND THE RESULT HAS BEEN A THICKER CLOUD
COVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE
RIDGE PUSHES FROM MICHIGAN TOWARD WESTERN NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY
CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S.

1050 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS, DECIDED TO
LOWER MAXES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. MAXES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY WHEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
205 PM UPDATE...
RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN FROM MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. 925MB TEMPS IMPROVE TO 3-4C, BUT STILL
QUITE COOL FOR LATE APRIL. THEREFOR EVEN WITH FULL SUN OR NEAR
FULL SUN, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET BEYOND THE LOWER 50S.

A WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NY SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT OPTED TO FORECAST FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE.

STACKED CYCLONE BACKS TOWARD REGION ON SUNDAY. SO FAR THE TIMING
SUGGESTS ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA. A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE ROTATES BACK
INTO MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS AND EURO IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONT TO SHOW A DEEP UPR AND
SFC LOW OFF THE NE US CST AND RDGG OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
TUE. BEYOND THAT...DFRNCS ARISE OVER THE HANDLING OF BOTH NRN AND
SRN STREAM WVS INTO MID WEEK. THE EURO KEEPS RDGG IN PLACE OVER
THE LAKES AS IT SLOWLY MVES EAST TO OUR AREA AND WED...WHILE
STRONGLY DVLPG A SRN STREAM STORM OVER THE GULF CST. GFS KEEP AN
OPEN UPR WV TO THE SOUTH WHILE PUSHING YET ANOTHER STRONG NRN
STREAM WV INTO THE WRN ATTLANTIC TROF. DFRNC IN THE SENSIBLE WX
FOR US WLD BE A MILDER AND DRIER EARLY WEEK FROM THE EURO...COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED FROM THE GFS.

HPC GUID SEEMED LIKE A COMPROMISE AND A DVLPS A GRADUAL WRMG TREND
INTO WED WHILE BRINGING A SLGT CHANCE OF SHWRS AS THE GULF CST LOW
BOMBS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC CST.

GFS ENDS IN A SIMILAR PLACE BY THU WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING A
RETURN TO A LONG WV TROF OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EST CST AND NW
FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DUE TO SOME MID LEVEL WARMING AND LOW LEVEL DRYING PERSISTENT
STRATO CU IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING. BY 03Z-04Z
TAF SITES WILL BE SKC OR SCT AROUND 4K FT. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE
IN THE VCNTY ON SATURDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED CU AROUND 4K FT.

W/NW WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS INCREASING BY SATURDAY MID MORNING AT
8-12 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN - WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...RRM



000
FXUS61 KBGM 250129
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
929 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
925 PM UPDATE...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS EVENING AS MID LEVELS WARM SLIGHTLY ALONG WITH SFC RIDGING.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY DAYBREAK. FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

200 PM UPDATE...
MODELS DID A POOR JOB EARLIER WITH ACCOUNTING FOR AMOUNT OF LAKE
MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT, AND THE RESULT HAS BEEN A THICKER CLOUD
COVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE
RIDGE PUSHES FROM MICHIGAN TOWARD WESTERN NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY
CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S.

1050 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS, DECIDED TO
LOWER MAXES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. MAXES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY WHEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
205 PM UPDATE...
RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN FROM MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. 925MB TEMPS IMPROVE TO 3-4C, BUT STILL
QUITE COOL FOR LATE APRIL. THEREFOR EVEN WITH FULL SUN OR NEAR
FULL SUN, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET BEYOND THE LOWER 50S.

A WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NY SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT OPTED TO FORECAST FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE.

STACKED CYCLONE BACKS TOWARD REGION ON SUNDAY. SO FAR THE TIMING
SUGGESTS ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA. A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE ROTATES BACK
INTO MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS AND EURO IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONT TO SHOW A DEEP UPR AND
SFC LOW OFF THE NE US CST AND RDGG OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
TUE. BEYOND THAT...DFRNCS ARISE OVER THE HANDLING OF BOTH NRN AND
SRN STREAM WVS INTO MID WEEK. THE EURO KEEPS RDGG IN PLACE OVER
THE LAKES AS IT SLOWLY MVES EAST TO OUR AREA AND WED...WHILE
STRONGLY DVLPG A SRN STREAM STORM OVER THE GULF CST. GFS KEEP AN
OPEN UPR WV TO THE SOUTH WHILE PUSHING YET ANOTHER STRONG NRN
STREAM WV INTO THE WRN ATTLANTIC TROF. DFRNC IN THE SENSIBLE WX
FOR US WLD BE A MILDER AND DRIER EARLY WEEK FROM THE EURO...COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED FROM THE GFS.

HPC GUID SEEMED LIKE A COMPROMISE AND A DVLPS A GRADUAL WRMG TREND
INTO WED WHILE BRINGING A SLGT CHANCE OF SHWRS AS THE GULF CST LOW
BOMBS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC CST.

GFS ENDS IN A SIMILAR PLACE BY THU WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING A
RETURN TO A LONG WV TROF OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EST CST AND NW
FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DUE TO SOME MID LEVEL WARMING AND LOW LEVEL DRYING PERSISTENT
STRATO CU IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING. BY 03Z-04Z
TAF SITES WILL BE SKC OR SCT AROUND 4K FT. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE
IN THE VCNTY ON SATURDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED CU AROUND 4K FT.

W/NW WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS INCREASING BY SATURDAY MID MORNING AT
8-12 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN - WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...RRM



000
FXUS61 KOKX 250013
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
813 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATES MADE MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING. FORECAST
OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A MOS BLEND WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE BORDERLINE...BUT
WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD IMPACT TEMPS. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR BUT FEEL FREEZE WARNING IS WARRANTED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY. VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NW TO NNW FLOW WILL DIMINISH AND
BACK WNW LATER TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS RESUMING DURING THE
MORNING...THEN BACK W TO WSW IN THE AFTERNOON.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS JUST OVER 30 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVY CONDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH WILL EXIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND CRITERIA LOOKS TO FALL SHORT IN SEVERAL
AREAS...AND FORECAST RH VALUES FALL SHORT FOR SOME SPOTS. 1 AND
1O HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE LOWERED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO AN SPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE APPROPRIATE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ067>070-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...24/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 250013
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
813 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATES MADE MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING. FORECAST
OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A MOS BLEND WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE BORDERLINE...BUT
WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD IMPACT TEMPS. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR BUT FEEL FREEZE WARNING IS WARRANTED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY. VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NW TO NNW FLOW WILL DIMINISH AND
BACK WNW LATER TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS RESUMING DURING THE
MORNING...THEN BACK W TO WSW IN THE AFTERNOON.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS JUST OVER 30 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVY CONDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH WILL EXIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND CRITERIA LOOKS TO FALL SHORT IN SEVERAL
AREAS...AND FORECAST RH VALUES FALL SHORT FOR SOME SPOTS. 1 AND
1O HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE LOWERED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO AN SPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE APPROPRIATE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ067>070-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...24/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBGM 242358
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
758 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
MODELS DID A POOR JOB EARLIER WITH ACCOUNTING FOR AMOUNT OF LAKE
MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT, AND THE RESULT HAS BEEN A THICKER CLOUD
COVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE
RIDGE PUSHES FROM MICHIGAN TOWARD WESTERN NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY
CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S.

1050 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS, DECIDED TO
LOWER MAXES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. MAXES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY WHEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
205 PM UPDATE...
RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN FROM MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. 925MB TEMPS IMPROVE TO 3-4C, BUT STILL
QUITE COOL FOR LATE APRIL. THEREFOR EVEN WITH FULL SUN OR NEAR
FULL SUN, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET BEYOND THE LOWER 50S.

A WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NY SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT OPTED TO FORECAST FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE.

STACKED CYCLONE BACKS TOWARD REGION ON SUNDAY. SO FAR THE TIMING
SUGGESTS ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA. A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE ROTATES BACK
INTO MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS AND EURO IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONT TO SHOW A DEEP UPR AND
SFC LOW OFF THE NE US CST AND RDGG OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
TUE. BEYOND THAT...DFRNCS ARISE OVER THE HANDLING OF BOTH NRN AND
SRN STREAM WVS INTO MID WEEK. THE EURO KEEPS RDGG IN PLACE OVER
THE LAKES AS IT SLOWLY MVES EAST TO OUR AREA AND WED...WHILE
STRONGLY DVLPG A SRN STREAM STORM OVER THE GULF CST. GFS KEEP AN
OPEN UPR WV TO THE SOUTH WHILE PUSHING YET ANOTHER STRONG NRN
STREAM WV INTO THE WRN ATTLANTIC TROF. DFRNC IN THE SENSIBLE WX
FOR US WLD BE A MILDER AND DRIER EARLY WEEK FROM THE EURO...COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED FROM THE GFS.

HPC GUID SEEMED LIKE A COMPROMISE AND A DVLPS A GRADUAL WRMG TREND
INTO WED WHILE BRINGING A SLGT CHANCE OF SHWRS AS THE GULF CST LOW
BOMBS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC CST.

GFS ENDS IN A SIMILAR PLACE BY THU WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING A
RETURN TO A LONG WV TROF OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EST CST AND NW
FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DUE TO SOME MID LEVEL WARMING AND LOW LEVEL DRYING PERSISTENT
STRATO CU IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING. BY 03Z-04Z
TAF SITES WILL BE SKC OR SCT AROUND 4K FT. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE
IN THE VCNTY ON SATURDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED CU AROUND 4K FT.

W/NW WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS INCREASING BY SATURDAY MID MORNING AT
8-12 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN - WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...RRM



000
FXUS61 KBGM 242358
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
758 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
MODELS DID A POOR JOB EARLIER WITH ACCOUNTING FOR AMOUNT OF LAKE
MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT, AND THE RESULT HAS BEEN A THICKER CLOUD
COVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE
RIDGE PUSHES FROM MICHIGAN TOWARD WESTERN NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY
CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S.

1050 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS, DECIDED TO
LOWER MAXES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. MAXES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY WHEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
205 PM UPDATE...
RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN FROM MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. 925MB TEMPS IMPROVE TO 3-4C, BUT STILL
QUITE COOL FOR LATE APRIL. THEREFOR EVEN WITH FULL SUN OR NEAR
FULL SUN, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET BEYOND THE LOWER 50S.

A WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NY SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT OPTED TO FORECAST FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE.

STACKED CYCLONE BACKS TOWARD REGION ON SUNDAY. SO FAR THE TIMING
SUGGESTS ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA. A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE ROTATES BACK
INTO MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS AND EURO IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONT TO SHOW A DEEP UPR AND
SFC LOW OFF THE NE US CST AND RDGG OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
TUE. BEYOND THAT...DFRNCS ARISE OVER THE HANDLING OF BOTH NRN AND
SRN STREAM WVS INTO MID WEEK. THE EURO KEEPS RDGG IN PLACE OVER
THE LAKES AS IT SLOWLY MVES EAST TO OUR AREA AND WED...WHILE
STRONGLY DVLPG A SRN STREAM STORM OVER THE GULF CST. GFS KEEP AN
OPEN UPR WV TO THE SOUTH WHILE PUSHING YET ANOTHER STRONG NRN
STREAM WV INTO THE WRN ATTLANTIC TROF. DFRNC IN THE SENSIBLE WX
FOR US WLD BE A MILDER AND DRIER EARLY WEEK FROM THE EURO...COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED FROM THE GFS.

HPC GUID SEEMED LIKE A COMPROMISE AND A DVLPS A GRADUAL WRMG TREND
INTO WED WHILE BRINGING A SLGT CHANCE OF SHWRS AS THE GULF CST LOW
BOMBS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC CST.

GFS ENDS IN A SIMILAR PLACE BY THU WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING A
RETURN TO A LONG WV TROF OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EST CST AND NW
FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DUE TO SOME MID LEVEL WARMING AND LOW LEVEL DRYING PERSISTENT
STRATO CU IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING. BY 03Z-04Z
TAF SITES WILL BE SKC OR SCT AROUND 4K FT. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE
IN THE VCNTY ON SATURDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED CU AROUND 4K FT.

W/NW WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS INCREASING BY SATURDAY MID MORNING AT
8-12 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN - WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...RRM



000
FXUS61 KBGM 242358
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
758 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
MODELS DID A POOR JOB EARLIER WITH ACCOUNTING FOR AMOUNT OF LAKE
MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT, AND THE RESULT HAS BEEN A THICKER CLOUD
COVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE
RIDGE PUSHES FROM MICHIGAN TOWARD WESTERN NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY
CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S.

1050 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS, DECIDED TO
LOWER MAXES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. MAXES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY WHEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
205 PM UPDATE...
RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN FROM MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. 925MB TEMPS IMPROVE TO 3-4C, BUT STILL
QUITE COOL FOR LATE APRIL. THEREFOR EVEN WITH FULL SUN OR NEAR
FULL SUN, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET BEYOND THE LOWER 50S.

A WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NY SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT OPTED TO FORECAST FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE.

STACKED CYCLONE BACKS TOWARD REGION ON SUNDAY. SO FAR THE TIMING
SUGGESTS ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA. A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE ROTATES BACK
INTO MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS AND EURO IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONT TO SHOW A DEEP UPR AND
SFC LOW OFF THE NE US CST AND RDGG OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
TUE. BEYOND THAT...DFRNCS ARISE OVER THE HANDLING OF BOTH NRN AND
SRN STREAM WVS INTO MID WEEK. THE EURO KEEPS RDGG IN PLACE OVER
THE LAKES AS IT SLOWLY MVES EAST TO OUR AREA AND WED...WHILE
STRONGLY DVLPG A SRN STREAM STORM OVER THE GULF CST. GFS KEEP AN
OPEN UPR WV TO THE SOUTH WHILE PUSHING YET ANOTHER STRONG NRN
STREAM WV INTO THE WRN ATTLANTIC TROF. DFRNC IN THE SENSIBLE WX
FOR US WLD BE A MILDER AND DRIER EARLY WEEK FROM THE EURO...COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED FROM THE GFS.

HPC GUID SEEMED LIKE A COMPROMISE AND A DVLPS A GRADUAL WRMG TREND
INTO WED WHILE BRINGING A SLGT CHANCE OF SHWRS AS THE GULF CST LOW
BOMBS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC CST.

GFS ENDS IN A SIMILAR PLACE BY THU WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING A
RETURN TO A LONG WV TROF OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EST CST AND NW
FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DUE TO SOME MID LEVEL WARMING AND LOW LEVEL DRYING PERSISTENT
STRATO CU IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING. BY 03Z-04Z
TAF SITES WILL BE SKC OR SCT AROUND 4K FT. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE
IN THE VCNTY ON SATURDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED CU AROUND 4K FT.

W/NW WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS INCREASING BY SATURDAY MID MORNING AT
8-12 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN - WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...RRM



000
FXUS61 KBGM 242358
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
758 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
MODELS DID A POOR JOB EARLIER WITH ACCOUNTING FOR AMOUNT OF LAKE
MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT, AND THE RESULT HAS BEEN A THICKER CLOUD
COVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE
RIDGE PUSHES FROM MICHIGAN TOWARD WESTERN NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY
CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S.

1050 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS, DECIDED TO
LOWER MAXES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. MAXES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY WHEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
205 PM UPDATE...
RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN FROM MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. 925MB TEMPS IMPROVE TO 3-4C, BUT STILL
QUITE COOL FOR LATE APRIL. THEREFOR EVEN WITH FULL SUN OR NEAR
FULL SUN, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET BEYOND THE LOWER 50S.

A WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NY SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT OPTED TO FORECAST FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE.

STACKED CYCLONE BACKS TOWARD REGION ON SUNDAY. SO FAR THE TIMING
SUGGESTS ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA. A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE ROTATES BACK
INTO MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS AND EURO IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONT TO SHOW A DEEP UPR AND
SFC LOW OFF THE NE US CST AND RDGG OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
TUE. BEYOND THAT...DFRNCS ARISE OVER THE HANDLING OF BOTH NRN AND
SRN STREAM WVS INTO MID WEEK. THE EURO KEEPS RDGG IN PLACE OVER
THE LAKES AS IT SLOWLY MVES EAST TO OUR AREA AND WED...WHILE
STRONGLY DVLPG A SRN STREAM STORM OVER THE GULF CST. GFS KEEP AN
OPEN UPR WV TO THE SOUTH WHILE PUSHING YET ANOTHER STRONG NRN
STREAM WV INTO THE WRN ATTLANTIC TROF. DFRNC IN THE SENSIBLE WX
FOR US WLD BE A MILDER AND DRIER EARLY WEEK FROM THE EURO...COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED FROM THE GFS.

HPC GUID SEEMED LIKE A COMPROMISE AND A DVLPS A GRADUAL WRMG TREND
INTO WED WHILE BRINGING A SLGT CHANCE OF SHWRS AS THE GULF CST LOW
BOMBS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC CST.

GFS ENDS IN A SIMILAR PLACE BY THU WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING A
RETURN TO A LONG WV TROF OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EST CST AND NW
FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DUE TO SOME MID LEVEL WARMING AND LOW LEVEL DRYING PERSISTENT
STRATO CU IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING. BY 03Z-04Z
TAF SITES WILL BE SKC OR SCT AROUND 4K FT. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE
IN THE VCNTY ON SATURDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED CU AROUND 4K FT.

W/NW WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS INCREASING BY SATURDAY MID MORNING AT
8-12 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN - WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...RRM



000
FXUS61 KBGM 242358
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
758 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
MODELS DID A POOR JOB EARLIER WITH ACCOUNTING FOR AMOUNT OF LAKE
MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT, AND THE RESULT HAS BEEN A THICKER CLOUD
COVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE
RIDGE PUSHES FROM MICHIGAN TOWARD WESTERN NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY
CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S.

1050 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS, DECIDED TO
LOWER MAXES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. MAXES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY WHEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
205 PM UPDATE...
RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN FROM MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. 925MB TEMPS IMPROVE TO 3-4C, BUT STILL
QUITE COOL FOR LATE APRIL. THEREFOR EVEN WITH FULL SUN OR NEAR
FULL SUN, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET BEYOND THE LOWER 50S.

A WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NY SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT OPTED TO FORECAST FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE.

STACKED CYCLONE BACKS TOWARD REGION ON SUNDAY. SO FAR THE TIMING
SUGGESTS ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA. A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE ROTATES BACK
INTO MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS AND EURO IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONT TO SHOW A DEEP UPR AND
SFC LOW OFF THE NE US CST AND RDGG OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
TUE. BEYOND THAT...DFRNCS ARISE OVER THE HANDLING OF BOTH NRN AND
SRN STREAM WVS INTO MID WEEK. THE EURO KEEPS RDGG IN PLACE OVER
THE LAKES AS IT SLOWLY MVES EAST TO OUR AREA AND WED...WHILE
STRONGLY DVLPG A SRN STREAM STORM OVER THE GULF CST. GFS KEEP AN
OPEN UPR WV TO THE SOUTH WHILE PUSHING YET ANOTHER STRONG NRN
STREAM WV INTO THE WRN ATTLANTIC TROF. DFRNC IN THE SENSIBLE WX
FOR US WLD BE A MILDER AND DRIER EARLY WEEK FROM THE EURO...COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED FROM THE GFS.

HPC GUID SEEMED LIKE A COMPROMISE AND A DVLPS A GRADUAL WRMG TREND
INTO WED WHILE BRINGING A SLGT CHANCE OF SHWRS AS THE GULF CST LOW
BOMBS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC CST.

GFS ENDS IN A SIMILAR PLACE BY THU WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING A
RETURN TO A LONG WV TROF OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EST CST AND NW
FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DUE TO SOME MID LEVEL WARMING AND LOW LEVEL DRYING PERSISTENT
STRATO CU IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING. BY 03Z-04Z
TAF SITES WILL BE SKC OR SCT AROUND 4K FT. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE
IN THE VCNTY ON SATURDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED CU AROUND 4K FT.

W/NW WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS INCREASING BY SATURDAY MID MORNING AT
8-12 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN - WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBUF 242355
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
755 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
PERSISTENT LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NY THIS EVENING. A PESKY AREA OF CLOUD COVER EXTENDING FROM THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST TO ROCHESTER AND INTO THE FINGER LAKES WILL
HANG ON FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS A
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES. CLOUDS
WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS THAT
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PERSISTENT VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE PERSISTENT WEAK ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT CLOUD COVER OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO POSSIBLY SEEING SOME
CLEARING.

OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THE CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS IN
THIS COLD/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST INLAND AREAS...WITH
SOME OF THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY IN THE LOWER
30S OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

ON SATURDAY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRUSH THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY POP DURING
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY. CLOUDS WILL STILL BE MORE PERSISTENT EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MARITIMES LOW. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AT BEST...WITH SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LIKELY STAYING
MOSTLY CLOUDY.

850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -3C OR SO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT LOW
50S IN MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE
IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER VALLEYS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER. GRADIENT ONSHORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...AND A LOCAL LAKE BREEZE MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEAR
BUFFALO AND KEEP DOWNTOWN COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC...AND A SPOKE OF UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND.

THE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...SPINNING SOME WEAK LIFT AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE SUNDAY. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT IN THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS...MAKING RAIN SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THERE. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY / UP TO AROUND -2 C/ AND SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED LIFT REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW RETROGRADES BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE ON MONDAY WITH
THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...THE NUISANCE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW WARMING
TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ON HOW
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER AIRMASS
IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE WEEK AS
THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE
EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR MOST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE LOW. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH A FEW
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLIES ON BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO BY
LATE EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE THE LAST
TO SEE LESSENING WIND AND WAVE ACTION...BUT EVEN HERE CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND
WAVES FOR SATURDAY WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING. NORTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS PESKY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BROADENS ITS INFLUENCE AGAIN...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK





000
FXUS61 KBUF 242355
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
755 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
PERSISTENT LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NY THIS EVENING. A PESKY AREA OF CLOUD COVER EXTENDING FROM THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST TO ROCHESTER AND INTO THE FINGER LAKES WILL
HANG ON FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS A
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES. CLOUDS
WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS THAT
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PERSISTENT VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE PERSISTENT WEAK ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT CLOUD COVER OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO POSSIBLY SEEING SOME
CLEARING.

OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THE CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS IN
THIS COLD/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST INLAND AREAS...WITH
SOME OF THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY IN THE LOWER
30S OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

ON SATURDAY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRUSH THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY POP DURING
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY. CLOUDS WILL STILL BE MORE PERSISTENT EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MARITIMES LOW. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AT BEST...WITH SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LIKELY STAYING
MOSTLY CLOUDY.

850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -3C OR SO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT LOW
50S IN MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE
IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER VALLEYS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER. GRADIENT ONSHORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...AND A LOCAL LAKE BREEZE MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEAR
BUFFALO AND KEEP DOWNTOWN COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC...AND A SPOKE OF UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND.

THE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...SPINNING SOME WEAK LIFT AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE SUNDAY. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT IN THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS...MAKING RAIN SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THERE. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY / UP TO AROUND -2 C/ AND SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED LIFT REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW RETROGRADES BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE ON MONDAY WITH
THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...THE NUISANCE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW WARMING
TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ON HOW
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER AIRMASS
IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE WEEK AS
THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE
EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR MOST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE LOW. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH A FEW
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLIES ON BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO BY
LATE EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE THE LAST
TO SEE LESSENING WIND AND WAVE ACTION...BUT EVEN HERE CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND
WAVES FOR SATURDAY WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING. NORTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS PESKY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BROADENS ITS INFLUENCE AGAIN...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 242355
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
755 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
PERSISTENT LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NY THIS EVENING. A PESKY AREA OF CLOUD COVER EXTENDING FROM THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST TO ROCHESTER AND INTO THE FINGER LAKES WILL
HANG ON FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS A
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES. CLOUDS
WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS THAT
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PERSISTENT VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE PERSISTENT WEAK ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT CLOUD COVER OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO POSSIBLY SEEING SOME
CLEARING.

OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THE CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS IN
THIS COLD/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST INLAND AREAS...WITH
SOME OF THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY IN THE LOWER
30S OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

ON SATURDAY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRUSH THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY POP DURING
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY. CLOUDS WILL STILL BE MORE PERSISTENT EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MARITIMES LOW. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AT BEST...WITH SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LIKELY STAYING
MOSTLY CLOUDY.

850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -3C OR SO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT LOW
50S IN MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE
IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER VALLEYS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER. GRADIENT ONSHORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...AND A LOCAL LAKE BREEZE MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEAR
BUFFALO AND KEEP DOWNTOWN COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC...AND A SPOKE OF UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND.

THE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...SPINNING SOME WEAK LIFT AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE SUNDAY. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT IN THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS...MAKING RAIN SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THERE. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY / UP TO AROUND -2 C/ AND SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED LIFT REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW RETROGRADES BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE ON MONDAY WITH
THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...THE NUISANCE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW WARMING
TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ON HOW
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER AIRMASS
IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE WEEK AS
THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE
EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR MOST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE LOW. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH A FEW
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLIES ON BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO BY
LATE EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE THE LAST
TO SEE LESSENING WIND AND WAVE ACTION...BUT EVEN HERE CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND
WAVES FOR SATURDAY WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING. NORTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS PESKY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BROADENS ITS INFLUENCE AGAIN...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK





000
FXUS61 KBUF 242355
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
755 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
PERSISTENT LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NY THIS EVENING. A PESKY AREA OF CLOUD COVER EXTENDING FROM THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST TO ROCHESTER AND INTO THE FINGER LAKES WILL
HANG ON FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS A
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES. CLOUDS
WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS THAT
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PERSISTENT VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE PERSISTENT WEAK ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT CLOUD COVER OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO POSSIBLY SEEING SOME
CLEARING.

OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THE CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS IN
THIS COLD/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST INLAND AREAS...WITH
SOME OF THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY IN THE LOWER
30S OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

ON SATURDAY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRUSH THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY POP DURING
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY. CLOUDS WILL STILL BE MORE PERSISTENT EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MARITIMES LOW. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AT BEST...WITH SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LIKELY STAYING
MOSTLY CLOUDY.

850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -3C OR SO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT LOW
50S IN MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE
IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER VALLEYS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER. GRADIENT ONSHORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...AND A LOCAL LAKE BREEZE MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEAR
BUFFALO AND KEEP DOWNTOWN COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC...AND A SPOKE OF UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND.

THE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...SPINNING SOME WEAK LIFT AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE SUNDAY. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT IN THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS...MAKING RAIN SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THERE. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY / UP TO AROUND -2 C/ AND SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED LIFT REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW RETROGRADES BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE ON MONDAY WITH
THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...THE NUISANCE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW WARMING
TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ON HOW
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER AIRMASS
IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE WEEK AS
THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE
EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR MOST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE LOW. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH A FEW
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLIES ON BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO BY
LATE EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE THE LAST
TO SEE LESSENING WIND AND WAVE ACTION...BUT EVEN HERE CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND
WAVES FOR SATURDAY WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING. NORTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS PESKY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BROADENS ITS INFLUENCE AGAIN...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KALY 242347
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
747 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 747 PM EDT...STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
GUSTY CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A
COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CU/SC ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES. THE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS SOME DRIER AIR STARTS TO
WORK IN.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST
AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND WARMER TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD MARKS A TRANSITION TO A WARMING PATTERN.  WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MOST ABUNDANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN VFR RANGE AROUND 4-6 KFT EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DIMINISHED SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ENDING 00Z SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 8-13 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS AT
KALB/KPSF...WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AFTER
MIXING COMMENCES SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY STILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM




000
FXUS61 KALY 242347
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
747 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 747 PM EDT...STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
GUSTY CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A
COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CU/SC ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES. THE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS SOME DRIER AIR STARTS TO
WORK IN.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST
AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND WARMER TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD MARKS A TRANSITION TO A WARMING PATTERN.  WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MOST ABUNDANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT...BUT
WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN VFR RANGE AROUND 4-6 KFT EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DIMINISHED SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ENDING 00Z SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 8-13 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS AT
KALB/KPSF...WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AFTER
MIXING COMMENCES SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY STILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 242339
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
739 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. CLOUDY SKIES
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME...WITH JUST
A FEW MOUNTAIN FLURRIES. A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS
FOR THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN MOS GUIDANCE
FOR MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 403 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE MOISTURE
ROTATING SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY...SO
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE WARMER THAN
TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY FROM THE
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
(MAINLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS). MOS GUIDANCE
AGAIN LOOKS TOO WARM FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT FRIDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL FINALLY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF EXITING THE REGION AS A
MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND ON MONDAY IT WILL COMBINE WITH
A WEAK SURFACE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SUMMITS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT THAT SHOULD ONLY
REALLY BE IN AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

THEN TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BRINING ABOUT A WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WITH DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS SHUTTING DOWN SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE MID
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE PROBLEM IS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
EXACTLY THE SITUATION WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE 00Z TO 12Z
RUNS FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME A FISH STORM AND PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFFECTING ONLY MARINERS. AS SUCH I WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND
CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND
GRADUALLY WARM UNDER THE RIDGING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS. THEN AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
IN LATE IN THE WEEK WE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COLDER TRENDING BACK
DOWN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE SUMMITS IN THE
UPPER 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MIX OF VFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT
INTO PART OF THE MORNING SATURDAY, BECOMING ALL VFR REST OF
SATURDAY.

STAGNANT UPPER LOW AND WRAP-AROUND ATLANTIC MOISTURE LEADING TO
PERSISTENT OVC CEILINGS AROUND 4-5KFT AT THE TERMINALS. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE OTTAWA VALLEY WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT, BRINGING ABOUT A LOWER IN CEILINGS
TO VFR/MVFR AROUND 07Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL DEEPER
MOISTURE PUSHES SOUTHWARD TOWARD MORNING, AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AT MPV GIVEN
PARTIALLY BLOCKED FLOW PER BTV-4 FROUDE NUMBER PROGS. NORTHWEST
WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS.

ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDS AROUND 15Z SATURDAY AS
VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE SHRINKS A BIT. SHOULD ALSO SEE AN
ACCOMPANYING RISE OF CEILINGS TO OVC VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE
AROUND 10 KTS SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO/MV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 242339
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
739 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. CLOUDY SKIES
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME...WITH JUST
A FEW MOUNTAIN FLURRIES. A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS
FOR THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN MOS GUIDANCE
FOR MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 403 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE MOISTURE
ROTATING SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY...SO
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE WARMER THAN
TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY FROM THE
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
(MAINLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS). MOS GUIDANCE
AGAIN LOOKS TOO WARM FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT FRIDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL FINALLY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF EXITING THE REGION AS A
MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND ON MONDAY IT WILL COMBINE WITH
A WEAK SURFACE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SUMMITS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT THAT SHOULD ONLY
REALLY BE IN AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

THEN TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BRINING ABOUT A WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WITH DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS SHUTTING DOWN SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE MID
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE PROBLEM IS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
EXACTLY THE SITUATION WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE 00Z TO 12Z
RUNS FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME A FISH STORM AND PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFFECTING ONLY MARINERS. AS SUCH I WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND
CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND
GRADUALLY WARM UNDER THE RIDGING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS. THEN AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
IN LATE IN THE WEEK WE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COLDER TRENDING BACK
DOWN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE SUMMITS IN THE
UPPER 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MIX OF VFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT
INTO PART OF THE MORNING SATURDAY, BECOMING ALL VFR REST OF
SATURDAY.

STAGNANT UPPER LOW AND WRAP-AROUND ATLANTIC MOISTURE LEADING TO
PERSISTENT OVC CEILINGS AROUND 4-5KFT AT THE TERMINALS. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE OTTAWA VALLEY WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT, BRINGING ABOUT A LOWER IN CEILINGS
TO VFR/MVFR AROUND 07Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL DEEPER
MOISTURE PUSHES SOUTHWARD TOWARD MORNING, AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AT MPV GIVEN
PARTIALLY BLOCKED FLOW PER BTV-4 FROUDE NUMBER PROGS. NORTHWEST
WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS.

ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDS AROUND 15Z SATURDAY AS
VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE SHRINKS A BIT. SHOULD ALSO SEE AN
ACCOMPANYING RISE OF CEILINGS TO OVC VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE
AROUND 10 KTS SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 242320
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
720 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. CLOUDY SKIES
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME...WITH JUST
A FEW MOUNTAIN FLURRIES. A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS
FOR THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN MOS GUIDANCE
FOR MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 403 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE MOISTURE
ROTATING SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY...SO
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE WARMER THAN
TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY FROM THE
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
(MAINLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS). MOS GUIDANCE
AGAIN LOOKS TOO WARM FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT FRIDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL FINALLY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF EXITING THE REGION AS A
MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND ON MONDAY IT WILL COMBINE WITH
A WEAK SURFACE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SUMMITS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT THAT SHOULD ONLY
REALLY BE IN AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

THEN TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BRINING ABOUT A WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WITH DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS SHUTTING DOWN SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE MID
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE PROBLEM IS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
EXACTLY THE SITUATION WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE 00Z TO 12Z
RUNS FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME A FISH STORM AND PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFFECTING ONLY MARINERS. AS SUCH I WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND
CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND
GRADUALLY WARM UNDER THE RIDGING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS. THEN AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
IN LATE IN THE WEEK WE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COLDER TRENDING BACK
DOWN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE SUMMITS IN THE
UPPER 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY UNDER A
BKN-OVC SKIES EXCEPT FOR MPV/SLK WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SIMILAR MVFR CEILINGS WILL SET IN AT
BTV/MSS AFTER 09Z WITH THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT SITES
LOOKING AT 2500-3000FT CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. SOME
INSTABILITY/WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFTER
00Z SAT. SURFACE WINDS WNW 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS...EASING UP IN THE EVENING (AFTER 00Z) TO 5-10 KNOTS. LOOK
FOR NW NEW YORK STATIONS TO SEE WINDS PICK BACK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS
BY LATE SAT MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/MV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 242320
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
720 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. CLOUDY SKIES
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME...WITH JUST
A FEW MOUNTAIN FLURRIES. A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS
FOR THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN MOS GUIDANCE
FOR MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 403 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE MOISTURE
ROTATING SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY...SO
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE WARMER THAN
TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY FROM THE
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
(MAINLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS). MOS GUIDANCE
AGAIN LOOKS TOO WARM FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT FRIDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL FINALLY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF EXITING THE REGION AS A
MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND ON MONDAY IT WILL COMBINE WITH
A WEAK SURFACE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SUMMITS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT THAT SHOULD ONLY
REALLY BE IN AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

THEN TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BRINING ABOUT A WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WITH DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS SHUTTING DOWN SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE MID
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE PROBLEM IS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
EXACTLY THE SITUATION WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE 00Z TO 12Z
RUNS FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME A FISH STORM AND PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFFECTING ONLY MARINERS. AS SUCH I WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND
CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND
GRADUALLY WARM UNDER THE RIDGING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS. THEN AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
IN LATE IN THE WEEK WE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COLDER TRENDING BACK
DOWN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE SUMMITS IN THE
UPPER 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY UNDER A
BKN-OVC SKIES EXCEPT FOR MPV/SLK WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SIMILAR MVFR CEILINGS WILL SET IN AT
BTV/MSS AFTER 09Z WITH THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT SITES
LOOKING AT 2500-3000FT CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. SOME
INSTABILITY/WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFTER
00Z SAT. SURFACE WINDS WNW 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS...EASING UP IN THE EVENING (AFTER 00Z) TO 5-10 KNOTS. LOOK
FOR NW NEW YORK STATIONS TO SEE WINDS PICK BACK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS
BY LATE SAT MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 242320
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
720 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. CLOUDY SKIES
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME...WITH JUST
A FEW MOUNTAIN FLURRIES. A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS
FOR THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN MOS GUIDANCE
FOR MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 403 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE MOISTURE
ROTATING SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY...SO
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE WARMER THAN
TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY FROM THE
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
(MAINLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS). MOS GUIDANCE
AGAIN LOOKS TOO WARM FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT FRIDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL FINALLY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF EXITING THE REGION AS A
MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND ON MONDAY IT WILL COMBINE WITH
A WEAK SURFACE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SUMMITS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT THAT SHOULD ONLY
REALLY BE IN AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

THEN TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BRINING ABOUT A WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WITH DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS SHUTTING DOWN SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE MID
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE PROBLEM IS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
EXACTLY THE SITUATION WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE 00Z TO 12Z
RUNS FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME A FISH STORM AND PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFFECTING ONLY MARINERS. AS SUCH I WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND
CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND
GRADUALLY WARM UNDER THE RIDGING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS. THEN AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
IN LATE IN THE WEEK WE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COLDER TRENDING BACK
DOWN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE SUMMITS IN THE
UPPER 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY UNDER A
BKN-OVC SKIES EXCEPT FOR MPV/SLK WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SIMILAR MVFR CEILINGS WILL SET IN AT
BTV/MSS AFTER 09Z WITH THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT SITES
LOOKING AT 2500-3000FT CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. SOME
INSTABILITY/WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFTER
00Z SAT. SURFACE WINDS WNW 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS...EASING UP IN THE EVENING (AFTER 00Z) TO 5-10 KNOTS. LOOK
FOR NW NEW YORK STATIONS TO SEE WINDS PICK BACK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS
BY LATE SAT MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/MV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 242320
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
720 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. CLOUDY SKIES
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME...WITH JUST
A FEW MOUNTAIN FLURRIES. A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS
FOR THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN MOS GUIDANCE
FOR MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 403 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE MOISTURE
ROTATING SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY...SO
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE WARMER THAN
TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY FROM THE
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
(MAINLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS). MOS GUIDANCE
AGAIN LOOKS TOO WARM FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT FRIDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL FINALLY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF EXITING THE REGION AS A
MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND ON MONDAY IT WILL COMBINE WITH
A WEAK SURFACE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SUMMITS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT THAT SHOULD ONLY
REALLY BE IN AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

THEN TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BRINING ABOUT A WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WITH DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS SHUTTING DOWN SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE MID
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE PROBLEM IS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
EXACTLY THE SITUATION WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE 00Z TO 12Z
RUNS FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME A FISH STORM AND PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFFECTING ONLY MARINERS. AS SUCH I WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND
CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND
GRADUALLY WARM UNDER THE RIDGING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS. THEN AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
IN LATE IN THE WEEK WE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COLDER TRENDING BACK
DOWN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE SUMMITS IN THE
UPPER 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY UNDER A
BKN-OVC SKIES EXCEPT FOR MPV/SLK WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SIMILAR MVFR CEILINGS WILL SET IN AT
BTV/MSS AFTER 09Z WITH THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT SITES
LOOKING AT 2500-3000FT CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. SOME
INSTABILITY/WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFTER
00Z SAT. SURFACE WINDS WNW 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS...EASING UP IN THE EVENING (AFTER 00Z) TO 5-10 KNOTS. LOOK
FOR NW NEW YORK STATIONS TO SEE WINDS PICK BACK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS
BY LATE SAT MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/MV




000
FXUS61 KALY 242101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
501 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
GUSTY CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY
A COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CU/SC ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS DIURNAL HEATING
SUBSIDES.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE
TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW
WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND WARMER TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE PERIOD MARKS A TRANSITION TO A WARMING PATTERN.  WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MOST ABUNDANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE COULD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BUT ONLY A FEW
MINUTES AT MOST...AND NOT WORTH EVEN PLACING AS A TEMPO IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING PEAK. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS FROM A WEST OR
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO PERHAPS 30KTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KALB.

THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THE CIGS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...FIRST AT KPOU THEN THE OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH EXCELLENT
VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN...WNW AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY STILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM




000
FXUS61 KALY 242101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
501 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
GUSTY CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY
A COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CU/SC ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS DIURNAL HEATING
SUBSIDES.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE
TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW
WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND WARMER TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE PERIOD MARKS A TRANSITION TO A WARMING PATTERN.  WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MOST ABUNDANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE COULD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BUT ONLY A FEW
MINUTES AT MOST...AND NOT WORTH EVEN PLACING AS A TEMPO IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING PEAK. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS FROM A WEST OR
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO PERHAPS 30KTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KALB.

THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THE CIGS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...FIRST AT KPOU THEN THE OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH EXCELLENT
VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN...WNW AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY STILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 242101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
501 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
GUSTY CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY
A COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CU/SC ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS DIURNAL HEATING
SUBSIDES.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE
TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW
WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND WARMER TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE PERIOD MARKS A TRANSITION TO A WARMING PATTERN.  WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MOST ABUNDANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE COULD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BUT ONLY A FEW
MINUTES AT MOST...AND NOT WORTH EVEN PLACING AS A TEMPO IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING PEAK. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS FROM A WEST OR
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO PERHAPS 30KTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KALB.

THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THE CIGS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...FIRST AT KPOU THEN THE OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH EXCELLENT
VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN...WNW AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY STILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM




000
FXUS61 KALY 242101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
501 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
GUSTY CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY
A COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CU/SC ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS DIURNAL HEATING
SUBSIDES.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE
TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW
WHICH WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM A LITTLE AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND WARMER TEMPS. ALTHOUGH A SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THE
COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE PERIOD MARKS A TRANSITION TO A WARMING PATTERN.  WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD...SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLEST...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MOST ABUNDANT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE COULD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BUT ONLY A FEW
MINUTES AT MOST...AND NOT WORTH EVEN PLACING AS A TEMPO IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING PEAK. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS FROM A WEST OR
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO PERHAPS 30KTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KALB.

THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THE CIGS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...FIRST AT KPOU THEN THE OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH EXCELLENT
VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN...WNW AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY STILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KOKX 242005
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
405 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

WILL CONVERT THE FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING AS A MOS BLEND WOULD
SUPPORT TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE
BORDERLINE...BUT WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD IMPACT TEMPS. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR BUT FEEL FREEZE WARNING IS WARRANTED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST INTO TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL
RETREAT FARTHER NORTH SATURDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
GUSTY NW FLOW MUCH OF THE TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL TONIGHT.
GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL TONIGHT.
GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL TONIGHT.
GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT BEFORE 02Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL EARLY
THIS EVENING. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO NEAR 30 KT BEFORE 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL EARLY
THIS EVENING. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO NEAR 30 KT BEFORE 01Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL THIS
EVENING. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT BEFORE 01Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR. NW FLOW BACKING TO W-SW SAT AFTN.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVSY CONDS
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY INTO THE EVENING ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
HAS FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MONDAY IS
HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH
TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ067>070-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...24/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 242005
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
405 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

WILL CONVERT THE FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING AS A MOS BLEND WOULD
SUPPORT TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE
BORDERLINE...BUT WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD IMPACT TEMPS. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR BUT FEEL FREEZE WARNING IS WARRANTED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST INTO TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL
RETREAT FARTHER NORTH SATURDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
GUSTY NW FLOW MUCH OF THE TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL TONIGHT.
GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL TONIGHT.
GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL TONIGHT.
GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT BEFORE 02Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL EARLY
THIS EVENING. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO NEAR 30 KT BEFORE 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL EARLY
THIS EVENING. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO NEAR 30 KT BEFORE 01Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL THIS
EVENING. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT BEFORE 01Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR. NW FLOW BACKING TO W-SW SAT AFTN.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVSY CONDS
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY INTO THE EVENING ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL
HAS FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MONDAY IS
HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH
TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ067>070-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...24/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBTV 242003
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
403 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 403 PM EDT FRIDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER WILL
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE GONE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 403 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE MOISTURE
ROTATING SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATUIRES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY...SO
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE WARMER THAN
TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY FROM THE
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
(MAINLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS). MOS GUIDANCE
AGAIN LOOKS TOO WARM FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT FRIDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL FINALLY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF EXITING THE REGION AS A
MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND ON MONDAY IT WILL COMBINE WITH
A WEAK SURFACE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SUMMITS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT THAT SHOULD ONLY
REALLY BE IN AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

THEN TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BRINING ABOUT A WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WITH DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS SHUTTING DOWN SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE MID
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE PROBLEM IS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
EXACTLY THE SITUATION WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE 00Z TO 12Z
RUNS FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME A FISH STORM AND PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFFECTING ONLY MARINERS. AS SUCH I WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND
CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND
GRADUALLY WARM UNDER THE RIDGING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS. THEN AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
IN LATE IN THE WEEK WE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COLDER TRENDING BACK
DOWN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE SUMMITS IN THE
UPPER 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY UNDER A
BKN-OVC SKIES EXCEPT FOR MPV/SLK WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SIMILAR MVFR CEILINGS WILL SET IN AT
BTV/MSS AFTER 09Z WITH THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT SITES
LOOKING AT 2500-3000FT CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. SOME
INSTABILITY/WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFTER
00Z SAT. SURFACE WINDS WNW 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS...EASING UP IN THE EVENING (AFTER 00Z) TO 5-10 KNOTS. LOOK
FOR NW NEW YORK STATIONS TO SEE WINDS PICK BACK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS
BY LATE SAT MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 242003
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
403 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 403 PM EDT FRIDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER WILL
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE GONE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 403 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE MOISTURE
ROTATING SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATUIRES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY...SO
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE WARMER THAN
TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY FROM THE
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
(MAINLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS). MOS GUIDANCE
AGAIN LOOKS TOO WARM FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT FRIDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL FINALLY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF EXITING THE REGION AS A
MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND ON MONDAY IT WILL COMBINE WITH
A WEAK SURFACE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SUMMITS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT THAT SHOULD ONLY
REALLY BE IN AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

THEN TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BRINING ABOUT A WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WITH DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS SHUTTING DOWN SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE MID
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE PROBLEM IS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
EXACTLY THE SITUATION WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE 00Z TO 12Z
RUNS FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME A FISH STORM AND PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFFECTING ONLY MARINERS. AS SUCH I WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND
CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND
GRADUALLY WARM UNDER THE RIDGING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS. THEN AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
IN LATE IN THE WEEK WE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COLDER TRENDING BACK
DOWN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE SUMMITS IN THE
UPPER 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY UNDER A
BKN-OVC SKIES EXCEPT FOR MPV/SLK WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SIMILAR MVFR CEILINGS WILL SET IN AT
BTV/MSS AFTER 09Z WITH THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT SITES
LOOKING AT 2500-3000FT CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. SOME
INSTABILITY/WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFTER
00Z SAT. SURFACE WINDS WNW 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS...EASING UP IN THE EVENING (AFTER 00Z) TO 5-10 KNOTS. LOOK
FOR NW NEW YORK STATIONS TO SEE WINDS PICK BACK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS
BY LATE SAT MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 242003
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
403 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 403 PM EDT FRIDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER WILL
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE GONE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 403 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE MOISTURE
ROTATING SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATUIRES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY...SO
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE WARMER THAN
TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY FROM THE
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
(MAINLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS). MOS GUIDANCE
AGAIN LOOKS TOO WARM FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT FRIDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL FINALLY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF EXITING THE REGION AS A
MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND ON MONDAY IT WILL COMBINE WITH
A WEAK SURFACE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SUMMITS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT THAT SHOULD ONLY
REALLY BE IN AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

THEN TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BRINING ABOUT A WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WITH DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS SHUTTING DOWN SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE MID
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE PROBLEM IS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
EXACTLY THE SITUATION WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE 00Z TO 12Z
RUNS FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME A FISH STORM AND PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFFECTING ONLY MARINERS. AS SUCH I WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND
CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND
GRADUALLY WARM UNDER THE RIDGING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS. THEN AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
IN LATE IN THE WEEK WE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COLDER TRENDING BACK
DOWN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE SUMMITS IN THE
UPPER 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY UNDER A
BKN-OVC SKIES EXCEPT FOR MPV/SLK WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SIMILAR MVFR CEILINGS WILL SET IN AT
BTV/MSS AFTER 09Z WITH THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT SITES
LOOKING AT 2500-3000FT CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. SOME
INSTABILITY/WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFTER
00Z SAT. SURFACE WINDS WNW 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS...EASING UP IN THE EVENING (AFTER 00Z) TO 5-10 KNOTS. LOOK
FOR NW NEW YORK STATIONS TO SEE WINDS PICK BACK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS
BY LATE SAT MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 242003
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
403 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 403 PM EDT FRIDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER WILL
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE GONE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 403 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE MOISTURE
ROTATING SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN MAINE AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATUIRES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TODAY...SO
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO BE WARMER THAN
TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY FROM THE
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
(MAINLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS). MOS GUIDANCE
AGAIN LOOKS TOO WARM FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT FRIDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL FINALLY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF EXITING THE REGION AS A
MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND ON MONDAY IT WILL COMBINE WITH
A WEAK SURFACE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SUMMITS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT THAT SHOULD ONLY
REALLY BE IN AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

THEN TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BRINING ABOUT A WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WITH DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS SHUTTING DOWN SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE MID
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE PROBLEM IS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
EXACTLY THE SITUATION WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE 00Z TO 12Z
RUNS FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME A FISH STORM AND PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFFECTING ONLY MARINERS. AS SUCH I WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND
CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND
GRADUALLY WARM UNDER THE RIDGING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS. THEN AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
IN LATE IN THE WEEK WE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COLDER TRENDING BACK
DOWN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE SUMMITS IN THE
UPPER 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY UNDER A
BKN-OVC SKIES EXCEPT FOR MPV/SLK WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SIMILAR MVFR CEILINGS WILL SET IN AT
BTV/MSS AFTER 09Z WITH THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT SITES
LOOKING AT 2500-3000FT CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. SOME
INSTABILITY/WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFTER
00Z SAT. SURFACE WINDS WNW 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS...EASING UP IN THE EVENING (AFTER 00Z) TO 5-10 KNOTS. LOOK
FOR NW NEW YORK STATIONS TO SEE WINDS PICK BACK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS
BY LATE SAT MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241942
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 103 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY A FEW MORE DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...THAT PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE...WELL,
PESKY...ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER
LOW OVER MAINE MOVING SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW ROTATES IN TO
TAKE IT`S PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ALOFT, THE NET
RESULT FOR US ON THE GROUND WILL BE CONTINUED COOL, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT. I THINK MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THANKS TO
SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW LEVEL BLOCKED FLOW WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING SATURDAY, SO
PRECIPITATION MAY REFOCUS ITSELF A BIT MORE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY, SO JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF
SNOW.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT ROTATES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
TRIED TO PAINT IN AN INCREASE OF POPS FROM NORTHERN VERMONT
INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY.
STILL DON`T THINK IT WILL BE A VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT, JUST MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (RAIN & SNOW
STILL DEPENDING ON ELEVATION).

TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EVERY SO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH
DAY AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TAKES ON MORE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOURCE, BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HUNG WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE,
SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT FRIDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL FINALLY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF EXITING THE REGION AS A
MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND ON MONDAY IT WILL COMBINE WITH
A WEAK SURFACE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SUMMITS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT THAT SHOULD ONLY
REALLY BE IN AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

THEN TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BRINING ABOUT A WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WITH DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS SHUTTING DOWN SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE MID
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE PROBLEM IS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
EXACTLY THE SITUATION WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE 00Z TO 12Z
RUNS FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME A FISH STORM AND PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFFECTING ONLY MARINERS. AS SUCH I WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND
CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND
GRADUALLY WARM UNDER THE RIDGING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS. THEN AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
IN LATE IN THE WEEK WE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COLDER TRENDING BACK
DOWN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE SUMMITS IN THE
UPPER 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY UNDER A
BKN-OVC SKIES EXCEPT FOR MPV/SLK WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SIMILAR MVFR CEILINGS WILL SET IN AT
BTV/MSS AFTER 09Z WITH THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT SITES
LOOKING AT 2500-3000FT CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. SOME
INSTABILITY/WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFTER
00Z SAT. SURFACE WINDS WNW 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS...EASING UP IN THE EVENING (AFTER 00Z) TO 5-10 KNOTS. LOOK
FOR NW NEW YORK STATIONS TO SEE WINDS PICK BACK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS
BY LATE SAT MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/MV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 241942
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 103 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY A FEW MORE DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...THAT PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE...WELL,
PESKY...ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER
LOW OVER MAINE MOVING SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW ROTATES IN TO
TAKE IT`S PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ALOFT, THE NET
RESULT FOR US ON THE GROUND WILL BE CONTINUED COOL, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT. I THINK MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THANKS TO
SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW LEVEL BLOCKED FLOW WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING SATURDAY, SO
PRECIPITATION MAY REFOCUS ITSELF A BIT MORE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY, SO JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF
SNOW.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT ROTATES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
TRIED TO PAINT IN AN INCREASE OF POPS FROM NORTHERN VERMONT
INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY.
STILL DON`T THINK IT WILL BE A VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT, JUST MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (RAIN & SNOW
STILL DEPENDING ON ELEVATION).

TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EVERY SO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH
DAY AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TAKES ON MORE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOURCE, BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HUNG WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE,
SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT FRIDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL FINALLY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF EXITING THE REGION AS A
MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND ON MONDAY IT WILL COMBINE WITH
A WEAK SURFACE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SUMMITS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT THAT SHOULD ONLY
REALLY BE IN AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

THEN TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BRINING ABOUT A WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WITH DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS SHUTTING DOWN SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE MID
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE PROBLEM IS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
EXACTLY THE SITUATION WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE 00Z TO 12Z
RUNS FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME A FISH STORM AND PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFFECTING ONLY MARINERS. AS SUCH I WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND
CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND
GRADUALLY WARM UNDER THE RIDGING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS. THEN AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
IN LATE IN THE WEEK WE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COLDER TRENDING BACK
DOWN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE SUMMITS IN THE
UPPER 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY UNDER A
BKN-OVC SKIES EXCEPT FOR MPV/SLK WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SIMILAR MVFR CEILINGS WILL SET IN AT
BTV/MSS AFTER 09Z WITH THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT SITES
LOOKING AT 2500-3000FT CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. SOME
INSTABILITY/WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFTER
00Z SAT. SURFACE WINDS WNW 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS...EASING UP IN THE EVENING (AFTER 00Z) TO 5-10 KNOTS. LOOK
FOR NW NEW YORK STATIONS TO SEE WINDS PICK BACK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS
BY LATE SAT MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/MV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 241942
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 103 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY A FEW MORE DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...THAT PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE...WELL,
PESKY...ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER
LOW OVER MAINE MOVING SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW ROTATES IN TO
TAKE IT`S PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ALOFT, THE NET
RESULT FOR US ON THE GROUND WILL BE CONTINUED COOL, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT. I THINK MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THANKS TO
SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW LEVEL BLOCKED FLOW WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING SATURDAY, SO
PRECIPITATION MAY REFOCUS ITSELF A BIT MORE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY, SO JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF
SNOW.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT ROTATES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
TRIED TO PAINT IN AN INCREASE OF POPS FROM NORTHERN VERMONT
INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY.
STILL DON`T THINK IT WILL BE A VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT, JUST MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (RAIN & SNOW
STILL DEPENDING ON ELEVATION).

TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EVERY SO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH
DAY AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TAKES ON MORE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOURCE, BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HUNG WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE,
SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT FRIDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL FINALLY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF EXITING THE REGION AS A
MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND ON MONDAY IT WILL COMBINE WITH
A WEAK SURFACE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SUMMITS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT THAT SHOULD ONLY
REALLY BE IN AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

THEN TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BRINING ABOUT A WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WITH DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS SHUTTING DOWN SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE MID
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE PROBLEM IS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
EXACTLY THE SITUATION WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE 00Z TO 12Z
RUNS FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME A FISH STORM AND PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFFECTING ONLY MARINERS. AS SUCH I WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND
CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND
GRADUALLY WARM UNDER THE RIDGING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS. THEN AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
IN LATE IN THE WEEK WE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COLDER TRENDING BACK
DOWN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE SUMMITS IN THE
UPPER 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY UNDER A
BKN-OVC SKIES EXCEPT FOR MPV/SLK WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SIMILAR MVFR CEILINGS WILL SET IN AT
BTV/MSS AFTER 09Z WITH THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT SITES
LOOKING AT 2500-3000FT CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. SOME
INSTABILITY/WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFTER
00Z SAT. SURFACE WINDS WNW 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS...EASING UP IN THE EVENING (AFTER 00Z) TO 5-10 KNOTS. LOOK
FOR NW NEW YORK STATIONS TO SEE WINDS PICK BACK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS
BY LATE SAT MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/MV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 241942
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 103 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY A FEW MORE DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...THAT PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE...WELL,
PESKY...ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER
LOW OVER MAINE MOVING SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW ROTATES IN TO
TAKE IT`S PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ALOFT, THE NET
RESULT FOR US ON THE GROUND WILL BE CONTINUED COOL, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT. I THINK MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THANKS TO
SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW LEVEL BLOCKED FLOW WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING SATURDAY, SO
PRECIPITATION MAY REFOCUS ITSELF A BIT MORE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY, SO JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF
SNOW.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT ROTATES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
TRIED TO PAINT IN AN INCREASE OF POPS FROM NORTHERN VERMONT
INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY.
STILL DON`T THINK IT WILL BE A VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT, JUST MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (RAIN & SNOW
STILL DEPENDING ON ELEVATION).

TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EVERY SO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH
DAY AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TAKES ON MORE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOURCE, BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HUNG WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE,
SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT FRIDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL FINALLY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF EXITING THE REGION AS A
MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND ON MONDAY IT WILL COMBINE WITH
A WEAK SURFACE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SUMMITS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT THAT SHOULD ONLY
REALLY BE IN AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

THEN TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BRINING ABOUT A WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WITH DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS SHUTTING DOWN SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE MID
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE PROBLEM IS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
EXACTLY THE SITUATION WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE 00Z TO 12Z
RUNS FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME A FISH STORM AND PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFFECTING ONLY MARINERS. AS SUCH I WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND
CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND
GRADUALLY WARM UNDER THE RIDGING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS. THEN AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
IN LATE IN THE WEEK WE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COLDER TRENDING BACK
DOWN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE SUMMITS IN THE
UPPER 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY UNDER A
BKN-OVC SKIES EXCEPT FOR MPV/SLK WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SIMILAR MVFR CEILINGS WILL SET IN AT
BTV/MSS AFTER 09Z WITH THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT SITES
LOOKING AT 2500-3000FT CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. SOME
INSTABILITY/WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFTER
00Z SAT. SURFACE WINDS WNW 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS...EASING UP IN THE EVENING (AFTER 00Z) TO 5-10 KNOTS. LOOK
FOR NW NEW YORK STATIONS TO SEE WINDS PICK BACK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS
BY LATE SAT MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/MV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 241942
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 103 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY A FEW MORE DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...THAT PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE...WELL,
PESKY...ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER
LOW OVER MAINE MOVING SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW ROTATES IN TO
TAKE IT`S PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ALOFT, THE NET
RESULT FOR US ON THE GROUND WILL BE CONTINUED COOL, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT. I THINK MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THANKS TO
SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW LEVEL BLOCKED FLOW WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING SATURDAY, SO
PRECIPITATION MAY REFOCUS ITSELF A BIT MORE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY, SO JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF
SNOW.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT ROTATES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
TRIED TO PAINT IN AN INCREASE OF POPS FROM NORTHERN VERMONT
INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY.
STILL DON`T THINK IT WILL BE A VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT, JUST MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (RAIN & SNOW
STILL DEPENDING ON ELEVATION).

TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EVERY SO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH
DAY AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TAKES ON MORE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOURCE, BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HUNG WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE,
SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT FRIDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL FINALLY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF EXITING THE REGION AS A
MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND ON MONDAY IT WILL COMBINE WITH
A WEAK SURFACE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SUMMITS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT THAT SHOULD ONLY
REALLY BE IN AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

THEN TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BRINING ABOUT A WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WITH DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS SHUTTING DOWN SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE MID
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE PROBLEM IS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
EXACTLY THE SITUATION WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE 00Z TO 12Z
RUNS FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME A FISH STORM AND PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFFECTING ONLY MARINERS. AS SUCH I WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND
CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND
GRADUALLY WARM UNDER THE RIDGING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS. THEN AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
IN LATE IN THE WEEK WE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COLDER TRENDING BACK
DOWN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE SUMMITS IN THE
UPPER 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY UNDER A
BKN-OVC SKIES EXCEPT FOR MPV/SLK WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SIMILAR MVFR CEILINGS WILL SET IN AT
BTV/MSS AFTER 09Z WITH THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT SITES
LOOKING AT 2500-3000FT CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. SOME
INSTABILITY/WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFTER
00Z SAT. SURFACE WINDS WNW 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS...EASING UP IN THE EVENING (AFTER 00Z) TO 5-10 KNOTS. LOOK
FOR NW NEW YORK STATIONS TO SEE WINDS PICK BACK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS
BY LATE SAT MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/MV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 241942
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 103 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY A FEW MORE DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...THAT PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE...WELL,
PESKY...ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER
LOW OVER MAINE MOVING SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW ROTATES IN TO
TAKE IT`S PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ALOFT, THE NET
RESULT FOR US ON THE GROUND WILL BE CONTINUED COOL, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT. I THINK MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THANKS TO
SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW LEVEL BLOCKED FLOW WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING SATURDAY, SO
PRECIPITATION MAY REFOCUS ITSELF A BIT MORE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY, SO JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF
SNOW.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT ROTATES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
TRIED TO PAINT IN AN INCREASE OF POPS FROM NORTHERN VERMONT
INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY.
STILL DON`T THINK IT WILL BE A VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT, JUST MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (RAIN & SNOW
STILL DEPENDING ON ELEVATION).

TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EVERY SO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH
DAY AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TAKES ON MORE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOURCE, BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HUNG WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE,
SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT FRIDAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL FINALLY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF EXITING THE REGION AS A
MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES AROUND ON MONDAY IT WILL COMBINE WITH
A WEAK SURFACE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RETROGRADE BACK OVER NEW
ENGLAND BRINGING ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SUMMITS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT THAT SHOULD ONLY
REALLY BE IN AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

THEN TUESDAY THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BRINING ABOUT A WELCOMED CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WITH DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS SHUTTING DOWN SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE MID
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE PROBLEM IS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
EXACTLY THE SITUATION WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE 00Z TO 12Z
RUNS FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME A FISH STORM AND PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFFECTING ONLY MARINERS. AS SUCH I WENT WITH
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE SUITE OF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND
CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND
GRADUALLY WARM UNDER THE RIDGING TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS. THEN AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
IN LATE IN THE WEEK WE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COLDER TRENDING BACK
DOWN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE SUMMITS IN THE
UPPER 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY UNDER A
BKN-OVC SKIES EXCEPT FOR MPV/SLK WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SIMILAR MVFR CEILINGS WILL SET IN AT
BTV/MSS AFTER 09Z WITH THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT SITES
LOOKING AT 2500-3000FT CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. SOME
INSTABILITY/WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFTER
00Z SAT. SURFACE WINDS WNW 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS...EASING UP IN THE EVENING (AFTER 00Z) TO 5-10 KNOTS. LOOK
FOR NW NEW YORK STATIONS TO SEE WINDS PICK BACK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS
BY LATE SAT MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/MV




000
FXUS61 KBUF 241921
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
321 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
LOW  OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE WESTERN AREAS. WILL SEE
A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
WILL LEAD TO AND END OF PRECIP BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO THIN FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE COOLER TREND OF AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE.
BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS TODAY...RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING HILLS. THIS SHOULD
OUTWEIGH THE WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS IN TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY SHOULD MAINTAIN NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A DRY ADIABATIC SOUNDING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC...AND A SPOKE OF UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND.

THE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...SPINNING SOME WEAK LIFT AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE SUNDAY. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT IN THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS...MAKING RAIN SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THERE. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY / UP TO AROUND -2 C/ AND SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED LIFT REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW RETROGRADES BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE ON MONDAY WITH
THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...THE NUISANCE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW WARMING
TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ON HOW
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER AIRMASS
IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE WEEK AS
THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE
EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE IN THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED. THIS AREA WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL MIX WINS DOWN TO THE SURFACE OF
LAKE ONTARIO SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE LAKE...DIMINISHING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
BRING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
PATTERN OF LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 241921
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
321 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
LOW  OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE WESTERN AREAS. WILL SEE
A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
WILL LEAD TO AND END OF PRECIP BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO THIN FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE COOLER TREND OF AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE.
BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS TODAY...RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING HILLS. THIS SHOULD
OUTWEIGH THE WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS IN TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY SHOULD MAINTAIN NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A DRY ADIABATIC SOUNDING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC...AND A SPOKE OF UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND.

THE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...SPINNING SOME WEAK LIFT AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE SUNDAY. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT IN THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS...MAKING RAIN SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THERE. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY / UP TO AROUND -2 C/ AND SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED LIFT REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW RETROGRADES BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE ON MONDAY WITH
THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...THE NUISANCE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW WARMING
TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ON HOW
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER AIRMASS
IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE WEEK AS
THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE
EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE IN THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED. THIS AREA WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL MIX WINS DOWN TO THE SURFACE OF
LAKE ONTARIO SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE LAKE...DIMINISHING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
BRING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
PATTERN OF LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 241921
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
321 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
LOW  OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE WESTERN AREAS. WILL SEE
A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
WILL LEAD TO AND END OF PRECIP BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO THIN FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE COOLER TREND OF AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE.
BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS TODAY...RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING HILLS. THIS SHOULD
OUTWEIGH THE WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS IN TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY SHOULD MAINTAIN NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A DRY ADIABATIC SOUNDING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC...AND A SPOKE OF UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND.

THE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...SPINNING SOME WEAK LIFT AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE SUNDAY. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT IN THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS...MAKING RAIN SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THERE. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY / UP TO AROUND -2 C/ AND SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED LIFT REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW RETROGRADES BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE ON MONDAY WITH
THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...THE NUISANCE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW WARMING
TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ON HOW
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER AIRMASS
IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE WEEK AS
THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE
EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE IN THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED. THIS AREA WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL MIX WINS DOWN TO THE SURFACE OF
LAKE ONTARIO SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE LAKE...DIMINISHING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
BRING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
PATTERN OF LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 241921
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
321 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
LOW  OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE WESTERN AREAS. WILL SEE
A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
WILL LEAD TO AND END OF PRECIP BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO THIN FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE COOLER TREND OF AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE.
BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS TODAY...RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING HILLS. THIS SHOULD
OUTWEIGH THE WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS IN TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY SHOULD MAINTAIN NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A DRY ADIABATIC SOUNDING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC...AND A SPOKE OF UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND.

THE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...SPINNING SOME WEAK LIFT AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE SUNDAY. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT IN THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS...MAKING RAIN SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THERE. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY / UP TO AROUND -2 C/ AND SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED LIFT REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW RETROGRADES BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE ON MONDAY WITH
THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...THE NUISANCE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW WARMING
TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ON HOW
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER AIRMASS
IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE WEEK AS
THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE
EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE IN THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED. THIS AREA WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL MIX WINS DOWN TO THE SURFACE OF
LAKE ONTARIO SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE LAKE...DIMINISHING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
BRING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
PATTERN OF LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 241808
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
208 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
200 PM UPDATE...
MODELS DID A POOR JOB EARLIER WITH ACCOUNTING FOR AMOUNT OF LAKE
MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT, AND THE RESULT HAS BEEN A THICKER CLOUD
COVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE
RIDGE PUSHES FROM MICHIGAN TOWARD WESTERN NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY
CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S.

1050 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS, DECIDED TO
LOWER MAXES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. MAXES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY WHEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
205 PM UPDATE...
RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN FROM MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. 925MB TEMPS IMPROVE TO 3-4C, BUT STILL
QUITE COOL FOR LATE APRIL. THEREFOR EVEN WITH FULL SUN OR NEAR
FULL SUN, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET BEYOND THE LOWER 50S.

A WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NY SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT OPTED TO FORECAST FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE.

STACKED CYCLONE BACKS TOWARD REGION ON SUNDAY. SO FAR THE TIMING
SUGGESTS ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA. A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE ROTATES BACK
INTO MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS AND EURO IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONT TO SHOW A DEEP UPR AND
SFC LOW OFF THE NE US CST AND RDGG OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
TUE. BEYOND THAT...DFRNCS ARISE OVER THE HANDLING OF BOTH NRN AND
SRN STREAM WVS INTO MID WEEK. THE EURO KEEPS RDGG IN PLACE OVER
THE LAKES AS IT SLOWLY MVES EAST TO OUR AREA AND WED...WHILE
STRONGLY DVLPG A SRN STREAM STORM OVER THE GULF CST. GFS KEEP AN
OPEN UPR WV TO THE SOUTH WHILE PUSHING YET ANOTHER STRONG NRN
STREAM WV INTO THE WRN ATTLANTIC TROF. DFRNC IN THE SENSIBLE WX
FOR US WLD BE A MILDER AND DRIER EARLY WEEK FROM THE EURO...COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED FROM THE GFS.

HPC GUID SEEMED LIKE A COMPROMISE AND A DVLPS A GRADUAL WRMG TREND
INTO WED WHILE BRINGING A SLGT CHANCE OF SHWRS AS THE GULF CST LOW
BOMBS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC CST.

GFS ENDS IN A SIMILAR PLACE BY THU WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING A
RETURN TO A LONG WV TROF OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EST CST AND NW
FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS INSIST THAT THE STUBBORN LE CLDS AND SHSN WILL DRY OUT
TODAY AS SOME WRMG ALOFT STABILIZES THE SNDG DESPITE THE CONTD NW
FLOW. LATEST RADAR TRENDS DO SHOW A SLOW BUT CONTG EROSION ALONG
THE SW EDGE OF THE PCPN AREA. HAVE GONE WITH VFR CONDS ALL
STATIONS WITH LGT SHSN CONTG THRU EARLY AFTN IN THE NY
STATIONS.CONTD NW WINDS WILL BECOME LGTR THIS EVENING...AND BECOM
GUSTY ONCE AGAIN SAT WITH MIXING.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN - WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM



000
FXUS61 KBGM 241808
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
208 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
200 PM UPDATE...
MODELS DID A POOR JOB EARLIER WITH ACCOUNTING FOR AMOUNT OF LAKE
MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT, AND THE RESULT HAS BEEN A THICKER CLOUD
COVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE
RIDGE PUSHES FROM MICHIGAN TOWARD WESTERN NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY
CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S.

1050 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS, DECIDED TO
LOWER MAXES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. MAXES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY WHEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
205 PM UPDATE...
RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN FROM MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. 925MB TEMPS IMPROVE TO 3-4C, BUT STILL
QUITE COOL FOR LATE APRIL. THEREFOR EVEN WITH FULL SUN OR NEAR
FULL SUN, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET BEYOND THE LOWER 50S.

A WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NY SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT OPTED TO FORECAST FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE.

STACKED CYCLONE BACKS TOWARD REGION ON SUNDAY. SO FAR THE TIMING
SUGGESTS ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA. A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE ROTATES BACK
INTO MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS AND EURO IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONT TO SHOW A DEEP UPR AND
SFC LOW OFF THE NE US CST AND RDGG OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
TUE. BEYOND THAT...DFRNCS ARISE OVER THE HANDLING OF BOTH NRN AND
SRN STREAM WVS INTO MID WEEK. THE EURO KEEPS RDGG IN PLACE OVER
THE LAKES AS IT SLOWLY MVES EAST TO OUR AREA AND WED...WHILE
STRONGLY DVLPG A SRN STREAM STORM OVER THE GULF CST. GFS KEEP AN
OPEN UPR WV TO THE SOUTH WHILE PUSHING YET ANOTHER STRONG NRN
STREAM WV INTO THE WRN ATTLANTIC TROF. DFRNC IN THE SENSIBLE WX
FOR US WLD BE A MILDER AND DRIER EARLY WEEK FROM THE EURO...COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED FROM THE GFS.

HPC GUID SEEMED LIKE A COMPROMISE AND A DVLPS A GRADUAL WRMG TREND
INTO WED WHILE BRINGING A SLGT CHANCE OF SHWRS AS THE GULF CST LOW
BOMBS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC CST.

GFS ENDS IN A SIMILAR PLACE BY THU WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING A
RETURN TO A LONG WV TROF OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EST CST AND NW
FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS INSIST THAT THE STUBBORN LE CLDS AND SHSN WILL DRY OUT
TODAY AS SOME WRMG ALOFT STABILIZES THE SNDG DESPITE THE CONTD NW
FLOW. LATEST RADAR TRENDS DO SHOW A SLOW BUT CONTG EROSION ALONG
THE SW EDGE OF THE PCPN AREA. HAVE GONE WITH VFR CONDS ALL
STATIONS WITH LGT SHSN CONTG THRU EARLY AFTN IN THE NY
STATIONS.CONTD NW WINDS WILL BECOME LGTR THIS EVENING...AND BECOM
GUSTY ONCE AGAIN SAT WITH MIXING.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN - WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM



000
FXUS61 KBGM 241808
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
208 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
200 PM UPDATE...
MODELS DID A POOR JOB EARLIER WITH ACCOUNTING FOR AMOUNT OF LAKE
MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT, AND THE RESULT HAS BEEN A THICKER CLOUD
COVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE
RIDGE PUSHES FROM MICHIGAN TOWARD WESTERN NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY
CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S.

1050 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS, DECIDED TO
LOWER MAXES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. MAXES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY WHEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
205 PM UPDATE...
RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN FROM MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. 925MB TEMPS IMPROVE TO 3-4C, BUT STILL
QUITE COOL FOR LATE APRIL. THEREFOR EVEN WITH FULL SUN OR NEAR
FULL SUN, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET BEYOND THE LOWER 50S.

A WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NY SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT OPTED TO FORECAST FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE.

STACKED CYCLONE BACKS TOWARD REGION ON SUNDAY. SO FAR THE TIMING
SUGGESTS ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA. A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE ROTATES BACK
INTO MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS AND EURO IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONT TO SHOW A DEEP UPR AND
SFC LOW OFF THE NE US CST AND RDGG OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
TUE. BEYOND THAT...DFRNCS ARISE OVER THE HANDLING OF BOTH NRN AND
SRN STREAM WVS INTO MID WEEK. THE EURO KEEPS RDGG IN PLACE OVER
THE LAKES AS IT SLOWLY MVES EAST TO OUR AREA AND WED...WHILE
STRONGLY DVLPG A SRN STREAM STORM OVER THE GULF CST. GFS KEEP AN
OPEN UPR WV TO THE SOUTH WHILE PUSHING YET ANOTHER STRONG NRN
STREAM WV INTO THE WRN ATTLANTIC TROF. DFRNC IN THE SENSIBLE WX
FOR US WLD BE A MILDER AND DRIER EARLY WEEK FROM THE EURO...COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED FROM THE GFS.

HPC GUID SEEMED LIKE A COMPROMISE AND A DVLPS A GRADUAL WRMG TREND
INTO WED WHILE BRINGING A SLGT CHANCE OF SHWRS AS THE GULF CST LOW
BOMBS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC CST.

GFS ENDS IN A SIMILAR PLACE BY THU WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING A
RETURN TO A LONG WV TROF OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EST CST AND NW
FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS INSIST THAT THE STUBBORN LE CLDS AND SHSN WILL DRY OUT
TODAY AS SOME WRMG ALOFT STABILIZES THE SNDG DESPITE THE CONTD NW
FLOW. LATEST RADAR TRENDS DO SHOW A SLOW BUT CONTG EROSION ALONG
THE SW EDGE OF THE PCPN AREA. HAVE GONE WITH VFR CONDS ALL
STATIONS WITH LGT SHSN CONTG THRU EARLY AFTN IN THE NY
STATIONS.CONTD NW WINDS WILL BECOME LGTR THIS EVENING...AND BECOM
GUSTY ONCE AGAIN SAT WITH MIXING.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN - WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 241808
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
208 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
200 PM UPDATE...
MODELS DID A POOR JOB EARLIER WITH ACCOUNTING FOR AMOUNT OF LAKE
MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT, AND THE RESULT HAS BEEN A THICKER CLOUD
COVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE
RIDGE PUSHES FROM MICHIGAN TOWARD WESTERN NY, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY
CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S.

1050 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS, DECIDED TO
LOWER MAXES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. MAXES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY WHEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
205 PM UPDATE...
RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN FROM MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. 925MB TEMPS IMPROVE TO 3-4C, BUT STILL
QUITE COOL FOR LATE APRIL. THEREFOR EVEN WITH FULL SUN OR NEAR
FULL SUN, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET BEYOND THE LOWER 50S.

A WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NY SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT OPTED TO FORECAST FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE.

STACKED CYCLONE BACKS TOWARD REGION ON SUNDAY. SO FAR THE TIMING
SUGGESTS ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA. A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE ROTATES BACK
INTO MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS AND EURO IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONT TO SHOW A DEEP UPR AND
SFC LOW OFF THE NE US CST AND RDGG OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
TUE. BEYOND THAT...DFRNCS ARISE OVER THE HANDLING OF BOTH NRN AND
SRN STREAM WVS INTO MID WEEK. THE EURO KEEPS RDGG IN PLACE OVER
THE LAKES AS IT SLOWLY MVES EAST TO OUR AREA AND WED...WHILE
STRONGLY DVLPG A SRN STREAM STORM OVER THE GULF CST. GFS KEEP AN
OPEN UPR WV TO THE SOUTH WHILE PUSHING YET ANOTHER STRONG NRN
STREAM WV INTO THE WRN ATTLANTIC TROF. DFRNC IN THE SENSIBLE WX
FOR US WLD BE A MILDER AND DRIER EARLY WEEK FROM THE EURO...COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED FROM THE GFS.

HPC GUID SEEMED LIKE A COMPROMISE AND A DVLPS A GRADUAL WRMG TREND
INTO WED WHILE BRINGING A SLGT CHANCE OF SHWRS AS THE GULF CST LOW
BOMBS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC CST.

GFS ENDS IN A SIMILAR PLACE BY THU WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING A
RETURN TO A LONG WV TROF OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EST CST AND NW
FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS INSIST THAT THE STUBBORN LE CLDS AND SHSN WILL DRY OUT
TODAY AS SOME WRMG ALOFT STABILIZES THE SNDG DESPITE THE CONTD NW
FLOW. LATEST RADAR TRENDS DO SHOW A SLOW BUT CONTG EROSION ALONG
THE SW EDGE OF THE PCPN AREA. HAVE GONE WITH VFR CONDS ALL
STATIONS WITH LGT SHSN CONTG THRU EARLY AFTN IN THE NY
STATIONS.CONTD NW WINDS WILL BECOME LGTR THIS EVENING...AND BECOM
GUSTY ONCE AGAIN SAT WITH MIXING.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN - WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM




000
FXUS61 KBUF 241807
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
207 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE WESTERN AREAS. WILL SEE
A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
WILL LEAD TO AND END OF PRECIP BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO THIN FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE COOLER TREND OF AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE.
BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS TODAY...RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING HILLS. THIS SHOULD
OUTWEIGH THE WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS IN TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A NARROW SWATH OF DRIER AIR PROMOTES
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LURKING
NEARBY...TO OUR EAST UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...AND TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MIDWEST WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESIDE. THOUGH OUR AIRMASS SATURDAY IS
ARRIVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AMPLE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTH OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
LIFT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE GREATER IN NUMBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETURNS BACK
TO THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER (LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW) REGION-WIDE.

AS THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS MODIFIES OVER TIME...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRINGS ATLANTIC SOURCED AIR WESTWARD DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
30S. WINDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAYTIME

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE IN THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED. THIS AREA WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE BUT JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 241807
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
207 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE WESTERN AREAS. WILL SEE
A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
WILL LEAD TO AND END OF PRECIP BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO THIN FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE COOLER TREND OF AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE.
BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS TODAY...RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING HILLS. THIS SHOULD
OUTWEIGH THE WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS IN TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A NARROW SWATH OF DRIER AIR PROMOTES
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LURKING
NEARBY...TO OUR EAST UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...AND TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MIDWEST WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESIDE. THOUGH OUR AIRMASS SATURDAY IS
ARRIVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AMPLE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTH OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
LIFT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE GREATER IN NUMBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETURNS BACK
TO THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER (LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW) REGION-WIDE.

AS THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS MODIFIES OVER TIME...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRINGS ATLANTIC SOURCED AIR WESTWARD DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
30S. WINDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAYTIME

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE IN THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED. THIS AREA WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE BUT JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 241807
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
207 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE WESTERN AREAS. WILL SEE
A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
WILL LEAD TO AND END OF PRECIP BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO THIN FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE COOLER TREND OF AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE.
BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS TODAY...RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING HILLS. THIS SHOULD
OUTWEIGH THE WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS IN TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A NARROW SWATH OF DRIER AIR PROMOTES
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LURKING
NEARBY...TO OUR EAST UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...AND TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MIDWEST WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESIDE. THOUGH OUR AIRMASS SATURDAY IS
ARRIVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AMPLE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTH OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
LIFT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE GREATER IN NUMBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETURNS BACK
TO THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER (LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW) REGION-WIDE.

AS THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS MODIFIES OVER TIME...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRINGS ATLANTIC SOURCED AIR WESTWARD DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
30S. WINDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAYTIME

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE IN THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED. THIS AREA WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE BUT JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 241751
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
151 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 103 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY A FEW MORE DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...THAT PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE...WELL,
PESKY...ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER
LOW OVER MAINE MOVING SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW ROTATES IN TO
TAKE IT`S PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ALOFT, THE NET
RESULT FOR US ON THE GROUND WILL BE CONTINUED COOL, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT. I THINK MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THANKS TO
SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW LEVEL BLOCKED FLOW WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING SATURDAY, SO
PRECIPITATION MAY REFOCUS ITSELF A BIT MORE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY, SO JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF
SNOW.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT ROTATES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
TRIED TO PAINT IN AN INCREASE OF POPS FROM NORTHERN VERMONT
INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY.
STILL DON`T THINK IT WILL BE A VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT, JUST MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (RAIN & SNOW
STILL DEPENDING ON ELEVATION).

TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EVERY SO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH
DAY AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TAKES ON MORE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOURCE, BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HUNG WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE,
SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL
INFLUENCED BY CLOSED UPPER LOW IN GULF OF MAINE SLOWLY EXITING
EAST BY MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS ANOTHER TROUGH OR CUT OFF BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE INFLUENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW DIMINISHES WITH TIME WITH BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BEING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY-MONDAY
NIGHT. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AT NIGHT.

SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING TRYING TO SQUEEZE INTO THIS UGLY FLOW
PATTERN FOR TUE-WED THEN MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF NEXT
POTENTIAL TROUGH/UPPER LOW FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL (NORMAL U50S-L60S)THROUGH MON
THEN NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK PERHAPS TURNING COOLER TOWARD END OF NEXT
WEEK. MIN TEMPERATURES LARGELY 30S-L40S WITH UPPER 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY UNDER A
BKN-OVC SKIES EXCEPT FOR MPV/SLK WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SIMILAR MVFR CEILINGS WILL SET IN AT
BTV/MSS AFTER 09Z WITH THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT SITES
LOOKING AT 2500-3000FT CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. SOME
INSTABILITY/WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFTER
00Z SAT. SURFACE WINDS WNW 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS...EASING UP IN THE EVENING (AFTER 00Z) TO 5-10 KNOTS. LOOK
FOR NW NEW YORK STATIONS TO SEE WINDS PICK BACK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS
BY LATE SAT MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...DEAL/MV



000
FXUS61 KALY 241748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES CIRCULATE AROUND IT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EACH
DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES AT 100 PM STILL
ONLY 40 DEGREES.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE COULD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BUT ONLY A FEW
MINUTES AT MOST...AND NOT WORTH EVEN PLACING AS A TEMPO IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING PEAK. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS FROM A WEST OR
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO PERHAPS 30KTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KALB.

THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THE CIGS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...FIRST AT KPOU THEN THE OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH EXCELLENT
VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN...WNW AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

RH VALUES FALL TO 25-30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KALY 241748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES CIRCULATE AROUND IT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EACH
DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES AT 100 PM STILL
ONLY 40 DEGREES.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE COULD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BUT ONLY A FEW
MINUTES AT MOST...AND NOT WORTH EVEN PLACING AS A TEMPO IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING PEAK. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS FROM A WEST OR
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO PERHAPS 30KTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KALB.

THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THE CIGS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...FIRST AT KPOU THEN THE OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH EXCELLENT
VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN...WNW AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

RH VALUES FALL TO 25-30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KALY 241748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES CIRCULATE AROUND IT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EACH
DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES AT 100 PM STILL
ONLY 40 DEGREES.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE COULD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BUT ONLY A FEW
MINUTES AT MOST...AND NOT WORTH EVEN PLACING AS A TEMPO IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING PEAK. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS FROM A WEST OR
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO PERHAPS 30KTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KALB.

THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THE CIGS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...FIRST AT KPOU THEN THE OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH EXCELLENT
VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN...WNW AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

RH VALUES FALL TO 25-30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KALY 241748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES CIRCULATE AROUND IT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EACH
DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES AT 100 PM STILL
ONLY 40 DEGREES.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE COULD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BUT ONLY A FEW
MINUTES AT MOST...AND NOT WORTH EVEN PLACING AS A TEMPO IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING PEAK. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS FROM A WEST OR
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO PERHAPS 30KTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KALB.

THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THE CIGS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...FIRST AT KPOU THEN THE OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH EXCELLENT
VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN...WNW AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

RH VALUES FALL TO 25-30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KBGM 241742
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
142 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1050 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS, DECIDED TO
LOWER MAXES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. MAXES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY WHEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE MID 30S.

330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING AS A FAIRLY COLD AIRMASS SITS OVER THE REGION. 700MB TEMPS
RANGE FROM -14 TO -16C. THIS AIRMASS HAVE TRIGGERED WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS. THIS UNSEASONAL COLD AIRMASS IS THE RESULT OF A
STACKED LOW THAT WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS
STACKED LOW MOVED EAST AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER MAINE... PLACING US
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS NW FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MSLP GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO REMAIN TIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND THE SFC LOW REMAINS PUT JUST EAST OF MAINE. THIS WILL
NOT HELP TEMPS RISE THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD AGAIN
TODAY... WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPR 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS IN NE PA MAY SEE TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER
50S.

CLOUDS WILL START TO BREAK APART DURING LATE EVENING AND THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER. SINCE CLEARING IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT... WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING ON SAT. FRI
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPR 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SATURDAY WILL BE QUIET AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AND THE UPPR LVL LOW DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 0 DEGREES C OVER
THE REGION AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO WESTERN PA. THIS WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST SAT AFTERNOON AND WASH IT OUT. BUT
THIS SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE UPPR LVL PATTERN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE
AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ON SAT THAN FRI. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
SEE TEMPS REACHING THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

SAT NIGHT THE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA... AND THE ATTENDANT PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR
CWA. SUNDAY THE STACKED LOW WILL RETROGRADE AND WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE
CHANGE FOR SHOWERS. 850MB TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL SUNDAY...
THUS THE HIGH TEMPS OVER THE REGION WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GFS AND EURO IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONT TO SHOW A DEEP UPR AND
SFC LOW OFF THE NE US CST AND RDGG OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
TUE. BEYOND THAT...DFRNCS ARISE OVER THE HANDLING OF BOTH NRN AND
SRN STREAM WVS INTO MID WEEK. THE EURO KEEPS RDGG IN PLACE OVER
THE LAKES AS IT SLOWLY MVES EAST TO OUR AREA AND WED...WHILE
STRONGLY DVLPG A SRN STREAM STORM OVER THE GULF CST. GFS KEEP AN
OPEN UPR WV TO THE SOUTH WHILE PUSHING YET ANOTHER STRONG NRN
STREAM WV INTO THE WRN ATTLANTIC TROF. DFRNC IN THE SENSIBLE WX
FOR US WLD BE A MILDER AND DRIER EARLY WEEK FROM THE EURO...COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED FROM THE GFS.

HPC GUID SEEMED LIKE A COMPROMISE AND A DVLPS A GRADUAL WRMG TREND
INTO WED WHILE BRINGING A SLGT CHANCE OF SHWRS AS THE GULF CST LOW
BOMBS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC CST.

GFS ENDS IN A SIMILAR PLACE BY THU WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING A
RETURN TO A LONG WV TROF OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EST CST AND NW
FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS INSIST THAT THE STUBBORN LE CLDS AND SHSN WILL DRY OUT
TODAY AS SOME WRMG ALOFT STABILIZES THE SNDG DESPITE THE CONTD NW
FLOW. LATEST RADAR TRENDS DO SHOW A SLOW BUT CONTG EROSION ALONG
THE SW EDGE OF THE PCPN AREA. HAVE GONE WITH VFR CONDS ALL
STATIONS WITH LGT SHSN CONTG THRU EARLY AFTN IN THE NY
STATIONS.CONTD NW WINDS WILL BECOME LGTR THIS EVENING...AND BECOM
GUSTY ONCE AGAIN SAT WITH MIXING.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN - WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM



000
FXUS61 KBGM 241742
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
142 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1050 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS, DECIDED TO
LOWER MAXES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. MAXES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY WHEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE MID 30S.

330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING AS A FAIRLY COLD AIRMASS SITS OVER THE REGION. 700MB TEMPS
RANGE FROM -14 TO -16C. THIS AIRMASS HAVE TRIGGERED WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS. THIS UNSEASONAL COLD AIRMASS IS THE RESULT OF A
STACKED LOW THAT WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS
STACKED LOW MOVED EAST AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER MAINE... PLACING US
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS NW FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MSLP GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO REMAIN TIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND THE SFC LOW REMAINS PUT JUST EAST OF MAINE. THIS WILL
NOT HELP TEMPS RISE THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD AGAIN
TODAY... WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPR 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS IN NE PA MAY SEE TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER
50S.

CLOUDS WILL START TO BREAK APART DURING LATE EVENING AND THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER. SINCE CLEARING IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT... WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING ON SAT. FRI
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPR 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SATURDAY WILL BE QUIET AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AND THE UPPR LVL LOW DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 0 DEGREES C OVER
THE REGION AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO WESTERN PA. THIS WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST SAT AFTERNOON AND WASH IT OUT. BUT
THIS SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE UPPR LVL PATTERN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE
AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ON SAT THAN FRI. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
SEE TEMPS REACHING THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

SAT NIGHT THE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA... AND THE ATTENDANT PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR
CWA. SUNDAY THE STACKED LOW WILL RETROGRADE AND WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE
CHANGE FOR SHOWERS. 850MB TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL SUNDAY...
THUS THE HIGH TEMPS OVER THE REGION WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GFS AND EURO IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONT TO SHOW A DEEP UPR AND
SFC LOW OFF THE NE US CST AND RDGG OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
TUE. BEYOND THAT...DFRNCS ARISE OVER THE HANDLING OF BOTH NRN AND
SRN STREAM WVS INTO MID WEEK. THE EURO KEEPS RDGG IN PLACE OVER
THE LAKES AS IT SLOWLY MVES EAST TO OUR AREA AND WED...WHILE
STRONGLY DVLPG A SRN STREAM STORM OVER THE GULF CST. GFS KEEP AN
OPEN UPR WV TO THE SOUTH WHILE PUSHING YET ANOTHER STRONG NRN
STREAM WV INTO THE WRN ATTLANTIC TROF. DFRNC IN THE SENSIBLE WX
FOR US WLD BE A MILDER AND DRIER EARLY WEEK FROM THE EURO...COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED FROM THE GFS.

HPC GUID SEEMED LIKE A COMPROMISE AND A DVLPS A GRADUAL WRMG TREND
INTO WED WHILE BRINGING A SLGT CHANCE OF SHWRS AS THE GULF CST LOW
BOMBS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC CST.

GFS ENDS IN A SIMILAR PLACE BY THU WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING A
RETURN TO A LONG WV TROF OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EST CST AND NW
FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS INSIST THAT THE STUBBORN LE CLDS AND SHSN WILL DRY OUT
TODAY AS SOME WRMG ALOFT STABILIZES THE SNDG DESPITE THE CONTD NW
FLOW. LATEST RADAR TRENDS DO SHOW A SLOW BUT CONTG EROSION ALONG
THE SW EDGE OF THE PCPN AREA. HAVE GONE WITH VFR CONDS ALL
STATIONS WITH LGT SHSN CONTG THRU EARLY AFTN IN THE NY
STATIONS.CONTD NW WINDS WILL BECOME LGTR THIS EVENING...AND BECOM
GUSTY ONCE AGAIN SAT WITH MIXING.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN - WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM



000
FXUS61 KBGM 241742
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
142 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1050 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS, DECIDED TO
LOWER MAXES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. MAXES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY WHEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE MID 30S.

330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING AS A FAIRLY COLD AIRMASS SITS OVER THE REGION. 700MB TEMPS
RANGE FROM -14 TO -16C. THIS AIRMASS HAVE TRIGGERED WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS. THIS UNSEASONAL COLD AIRMASS IS THE RESULT OF A
STACKED LOW THAT WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS
STACKED LOW MOVED EAST AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER MAINE... PLACING US
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS NW FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MSLP GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO REMAIN TIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND THE SFC LOW REMAINS PUT JUST EAST OF MAINE. THIS WILL
NOT HELP TEMPS RISE THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD AGAIN
TODAY... WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPR 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS IN NE PA MAY SEE TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER
50S.

CLOUDS WILL START TO BREAK APART DURING LATE EVENING AND THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER. SINCE CLEARING IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT... WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING ON SAT. FRI
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPR 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SATURDAY WILL BE QUIET AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AND THE UPPR LVL LOW DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 0 DEGREES C OVER
THE REGION AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO WESTERN PA. THIS WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST SAT AFTERNOON AND WASH IT OUT. BUT
THIS SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE UPPR LVL PATTERN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE
AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ON SAT THAN FRI. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
SEE TEMPS REACHING THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

SAT NIGHT THE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA... AND THE ATTENDANT PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR
CWA. SUNDAY THE STACKED LOW WILL RETROGRADE AND WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE
CHANGE FOR SHOWERS. 850MB TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL SUNDAY...
THUS THE HIGH TEMPS OVER THE REGION WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GFS AND EURO IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONT TO SHOW A DEEP UPR AND
SFC LOW OFF THE NE US CST AND RDGG OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
TUE. BEYOND THAT...DFRNCS ARISE OVER THE HANDLING OF BOTH NRN AND
SRN STREAM WVS INTO MID WEEK. THE EURO KEEPS RDGG IN PLACE OVER
THE LAKES AS IT SLOWLY MVES EAST TO OUR AREA AND WED...WHILE
STRONGLY DVLPG A SRN STREAM STORM OVER THE GULF CST. GFS KEEP AN
OPEN UPR WV TO THE SOUTH WHILE PUSHING YET ANOTHER STRONG NRN
STREAM WV INTO THE WRN ATTLANTIC TROF. DFRNC IN THE SENSIBLE WX
FOR US WLD BE A MILDER AND DRIER EARLY WEEK FROM THE EURO...COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED FROM THE GFS.

HPC GUID SEEMED LIKE A COMPROMISE AND A DVLPS A GRADUAL WRMG TREND
INTO WED WHILE BRINGING A SLGT CHANCE OF SHWRS AS THE GULF CST LOW
BOMBS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC CST.

GFS ENDS IN A SIMILAR PLACE BY THU WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING A
RETURN TO A LONG WV TROF OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EST CST AND NW
FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS INSIST THAT THE STUBBORN LE CLDS AND SHSN WILL DRY OUT
TODAY AS SOME WRMG ALOFT STABILIZES THE SNDG DESPITE THE CONTD NW
FLOW. LATEST RADAR TRENDS DO SHOW A SLOW BUT CONTG EROSION ALONG
THE SW EDGE OF THE PCPN AREA. HAVE GONE WITH VFR CONDS ALL
STATIONS WITH LGT SHSN CONTG THRU EARLY AFTN IN THE NY
STATIONS.CONTD NW WINDS WILL BECOME LGTR THIS EVENING...AND BECOM
GUSTY ONCE AGAIN SAT WITH MIXING.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN - WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM



000
FXUS61 KBGM 241742
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
142 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1050 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS, DECIDED TO
LOWER MAXES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. MAXES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY WHEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE MID 30S.

330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING AS A FAIRLY COLD AIRMASS SITS OVER THE REGION. 700MB TEMPS
RANGE FROM -14 TO -16C. THIS AIRMASS HAVE TRIGGERED WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS. THIS UNSEASONAL COLD AIRMASS IS THE RESULT OF A
STACKED LOW THAT WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS
STACKED LOW MOVED EAST AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER MAINE... PLACING US
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS NW FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MSLP GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO REMAIN TIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND THE SFC LOW REMAINS PUT JUST EAST OF MAINE. THIS WILL
NOT HELP TEMPS RISE THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD AGAIN
TODAY... WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPR 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS IN NE PA MAY SEE TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER
50S.

CLOUDS WILL START TO BREAK APART DURING LATE EVENING AND THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER. SINCE CLEARING IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT... WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING ON SAT. FRI
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPR 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SATURDAY WILL BE QUIET AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AND THE UPPR LVL LOW DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 0 DEGREES C OVER
THE REGION AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO WESTERN PA. THIS WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST SAT AFTERNOON AND WASH IT OUT. BUT
THIS SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE UPPR LVL PATTERN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE
AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ON SAT THAN FRI. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
SEE TEMPS REACHING THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

SAT NIGHT THE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA... AND THE ATTENDANT PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR
CWA. SUNDAY THE STACKED LOW WILL RETROGRADE AND WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE
CHANGE FOR SHOWERS. 850MB TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL SUNDAY...
THUS THE HIGH TEMPS OVER THE REGION WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GFS AND EURO IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONT TO SHOW A DEEP UPR AND
SFC LOW OFF THE NE US CST AND RDGG OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
TUE. BEYOND THAT...DFRNCS ARISE OVER THE HANDLING OF BOTH NRN AND
SRN STREAM WVS INTO MID WEEK. THE EURO KEEPS RDGG IN PLACE OVER
THE LAKES AS IT SLOWLY MVES EAST TO OUR AREA AND WED...WHILE
STRONGLY DVLPG A SRN STREAM STORM OVER THE GULF CST. GFS KEEP AN
OPEN UPR WV TO THE SOUTH WHILE PUSHING YET ANOTHER STRONG NRN
STREAM WV INTO THE WRN ATTLANTIC TROF. DFRNC IN THE SENSIBLE WX
FOR US WLD BE A MILDER AND DRIER EARLY WEEK FROM THE EURO...COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED FROM THE GFS.

HPC GUID SEEMED LIKE A COMPROMISE AND A DVLPS A GRADUAL WRMG TREND
INTO WED WHILE BRINGING A SLGT CHANCE OF SHWRS AS THE GULF CST LOW
BOMBS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC CST.

GFS ENDS IN A SIMILAR PLACE BY THU WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING A
RETURN TO A LONG WV TROF OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EST CST AND NW
FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS INSIST THAT THE STUBBORN LE CLDS AND SHSN WILL DRY OUT
TODAY AS SOME WRMG ALOFT STABILIZES THE SNDG DESPITE THE CONTD NW
FLOW. LATEST RADAR TRENDS DO SHOW A SLOW BUT CONTG EROSION ALONG
THE SW EDGE OF THE PCPN AREA. HAVE GONE WITH VFR CONDS ALL
STATIONS WITH LGT SHSN CONTG THRU EARLY AFTN IN THE NY
STATIONS.CONTD NW WINDS WILL BECOME LGTR THIS EVENING...AND BECOM
GUSTY ONCE AGAIN SAT WITH MIXING.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN - WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM



000
FXUS61 KOKX 241723
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE
WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE
DUE TO COLD AIR IN PLACE AND CLOUD COVER. DID LOWER TEMPS
SLIGHTLY...WITH MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RECORD
LOWS WILL MAY BE SET...SEE CLIMATE SECTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST INTO TONIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH SATURDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GUSTY NW FLOW MUCH OF THE TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY
PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR. NW FLOW BACKING TO W-SW SAT AFTN.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE
FREQUENT GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL
THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH 600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936...36
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956...34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919...37
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971...39
KENNEDY NY *37/1971...37
ISLIP NY 36/2012...31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MET/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241723
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE
WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE
DUE TO COLD AIR IN PLACE AND CLOUD COVER. DID LOWER TEMPS
SLIGHTLY...WITH MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RECORD
LOWS WILL MAY BE SET...SEE CLIMATE SECTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST INTO TONIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH SATURDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GUSTY NW FLOW MUCH OF THE TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY
PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR. NW FLOW BACKING TO W-SW SAT AFTN.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE
FREQUENT GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL
THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH 600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936...36
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956...34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919...37
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971...39
KENNEDY NY *37/1971...37
ISLIP NY 36/2012...31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MET/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241723
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE
WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE
DUE TO COLD AIR IN PLACE AND CLOUD COVER. DID LOWER TEMPS
SLIGHTLY...WITH MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RECORD
LOWS WILL MAY BE SET...SEE CLIMATE SECTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST INTO TONIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH SATURDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GUSTY NW FLOW MUCH OF THE TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY
PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR. NW FLOW BACKING TO W-SW SAT AFTN.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE
FREQUENT GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL
THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH 600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936...36
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956...34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919...37
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971...39
KENNEDY NY *37/1971...37
ISLIP NY 36/2012...31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MET/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241723
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE
WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE
DUE TO COLD AIR IN PLACE AND CLOUD COVER. DID LOWER TEMPS
SLIGHTLY...WITH MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RECORD
LOWS WILL MAY BE SET...SEE CLIMATE SECTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST INTO TONIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH SATURDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GUSTY NW FLOW MUCH OF THE TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY
PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR. NW FLOW BACKING TO W-SW SAT AFTN.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE
FREQUENT GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL
THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH 600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936...36
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956...34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919...37
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971...39
KENNEDY NY *37/1971...37
ISLIP NY 36/2012...31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MET/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241723 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE
WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE
DUE TO COLD AIR IN PLACE AND CLOUD COVER. DID LOWER TEMPS
SLIGHTLY...WITH MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RECORD
LOWS WILL MAY BE SET...SEE CLIMATE SECTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST INTO TONIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH SATURDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GUSTY NW FLOW MUCH OF THE TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL TONIGHT.
GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL TONIGHT.
GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL TONIGHT.
GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT BEFORE 01Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL EARLY
THIS EVENING. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT BEFORE
23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL EARLY
THIS EVENING. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT BEFORE
01Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL THIS
EVENING. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT BEFORE 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR. NW FLOW BACKING TO W-SW SAT AFTN.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE
FREQUENT GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL
THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH 600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936...36
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956...34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919...37
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971...39
KENNEDY NY *37/1971...37
ISLIP NY 36/2012...31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MET/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 241723
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE
WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE
DUE TO COLD AIR IN PLACE AND CLOUD COVER. DID LOWER TEMPS
SLIGHTLY...WITH MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RECORD
LOWS WILL MAY BE SET...SEE CLIMATE SECTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST INTO TONIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH SATURDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GUSTY NW FLOW MUCH OF THE TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY
PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR. NW FLOW BACKING TO W-SW SAT AFTN.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE
FREQUENT GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL
THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH 600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936...36
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956...34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919...37
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971...39
KENNEDY NY *37/1971...37
ISLIP NY 36/2012...31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MET/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 241723
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE
WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE
DUE TO COLD AIR IN PLACE AND CLOUD COVER. DID LOWER TEMPS
SLIGHTLY...WITH MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RECORD
LOWS WILL MAY BE SET...SEE CLIMATE SECTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST INTO TONIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH SATURDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GUSTY NW FLOW MUCH OF THE TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY
PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR. NW FLOW BACKING TO W-SW SAT AFTN.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE
FREQUENT GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL
THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH 600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936...36
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956...34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919...37
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971...39
KENNEDY NY *37/1971...37
ISLIP NY 36/2012...31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MET/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 241723
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE
WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE
DUE TO COLD AIR IN PLACE AND CLOUD COVER. DID LOWER TEMPS
SLIGHTLY...WITH MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RECORD
LOWS WILL MAY BE SET...SEE CLIMATE SECTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST INTO TONIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH SATURDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GUSTY NW FLOW MUCH OF THE TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY
PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR. NW FLOW BACKING TO W-SW SAT AFTN.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE
FREQUENT GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL
THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH 600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936...36
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956...34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919...37
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971...39
KENNEDY NY *37/1971...37
ISLIP NY 36/2012...31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MET/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 241723
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE
WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE
DUE TO COLD AIR IN PLACE AND CLOUD COVER. DID LOWER TEMPS
SLIGHTLY...WITH MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RECORD
LOWS WILL MAY BE SET...SEE CLIMATE SECTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH BRIEF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST INTO TONIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH SATURDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GUSTY NW FLOW MUCH OF THE TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY
PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR. NW FLOW BACKING TO W-SW SAT AFTN.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE
FREQUENT GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL
THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH 600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936...36
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956...34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919...37
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971...39
KENNEDY NY *37/1971...37
ISLIP NY 36/2012...31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MET/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBGM 241705
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
105 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1050 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS, DECIDED TO
LOWER MAXES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. MAXES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY WHEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE MID 30S.

330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING AS A FAIRLY COLD AIRMASS SITS OVER THE REGION. 700MB TEMPS
RANGE FROM -14 TO -16C. THIS AIRMASS HAVE TRIGGERED WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS. THIS UNSEASONAL COLD AIRMASS IS THE RESULT OF A
STACKED LOW THAT WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS
STACKED LOW MOVED EAST AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER MAINE... PLACING US
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS NW FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MSLP GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO REMAIN TIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND THE SFC LOW REMAINS PUT JUST EAST OF MAINE. THIS WILL
NOT HELP TEMPS RISE THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD AGAIN
TODAY... WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPR 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS IN NE PA MAY SEE TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER
50S.

CLOUDS WILL START TO BREAK APART DURING LATE EVENING AND THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER. SINCE CLEARING IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT... WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING ON SAT. FRI
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPR 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SATURDAY WILL BE QUIET AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AND THE UPPR LVL LOW DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 0 DEGREES C OVER
THE REGION AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO WESTERN PA. THIS WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST SAT AFTERNOON AND WASH IT OUT. BUT
THIS SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE UPPR LVL PATTERN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE
AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ON SAT THAN FRI. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
SEE TEMPS REACHING THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

SAT NIGHT THE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA... AND THE ATTENDANT PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR
CWA. SUNDAY THE STACKED LOW WILL RETROGRADE AND WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE
CHANGE FOR SHOWERS. 850MB TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL SUNDAY...
THUS THE HIGH TEMPS OVER THE REGION WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW A DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
WOBBLING OFF THE NE CST ON MON. NLY FLOW BHD THE FLOW WITH THE LWR
UPR HGTS WILL KEEP ISLTD TO SCT SHOWRS OVER THE FCST AREA...ESP
OVER THE NY ZONES...WITH BLO NRML DAYTIME TEMPS.

IRONICALLY...THE EURO IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AND
SHOWS SOME IMPRVMT LTR TUE INTO THU WITH WEAK SFC RDGG AND A
NARROW RDG ALOFT. GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE UPR LOW HANGING ARND AND
IN FACT CAPTURES A SRN STREAM SYSTEM LATE IN THE PD TO ENHANCE
THE UPR TROF.

MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE FCST IN THE LONG TERM LDG
TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST...NOT ALL THAT UNUSUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SO...CONTD WITH THE HPC GUID IDEA OF LOW CHANCE OR SLGT CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...ESP IN THE NRN AND ERN ZONES.
WITH THE NLY FLOW...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NRML...ESP DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z FRI UPDATE... UNRESTRICTED/VFR CONDS WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH
OF THE VALID TAF PD (THROUGH 12Z SAT). BRIEF MVFR/FUEL ALT
RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL THROUGH ABT 14Z...AS LWR CIGS/MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHWRS LINGER.

NW SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MRNG-AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING
AGN TNT (AFTER 00Z SAT).

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MON-TUE...OCNL -SHRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY NY
TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJN/MLJ



000
FXUS61 KBGM 241705
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
105 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1050 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS, DECIDED TO
LOWER MAXES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. MAXES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY WHEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE MID 30S.

330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING AS A FAIRLY COLD AIRMASS SITS OVER THE REGION. 700MB TEMPS
RANGE FROM -14 TO -16C. THIS AIRMASS HAVE TRIGGERED WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS. THIS UNSEASONAL COLD AIRMASS IS THE RESULT OF A
STACKED LOW THAT WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS
STACKED LOW MOVED EAST AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER MAINE... PLACING US
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS NW FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MSLP GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO REMAIN TIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND THE SFC LOW REMAINS PUT JUST EAST OF MAINE. THIS WILL
NOT HELP TEMPS RISE THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD AGAIN
TODAY... WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPR 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS IN NE PA MAY SEE TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER
50S.

CLOUDS WILL START TO BREAK APART DURING LATE EVENING AND THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER. SINCE CLEARING IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT... WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING ON SAT. FRI
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPR 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SATURDAY WILL BE QUIET AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AND THE UPPR LVL LOW DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 0 DEGREES C OVER
THE REGION AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO WESTERN PA. THIS WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST SAT AFTERNOON AND WASH IT OUT. BUT
THIS SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE UPPR LVL PATTERN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE
AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ON SAT THAN FRI. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
SEE TEMPS REACHING THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

SAT NIGHT THE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA... AND THE ATTENDANT PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR
CWA. SUNDAY THE STACKED LOW WILL RETROGRADE AND WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE
CHANGE FOR SHOWERS. 850MB TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL SUNDAY...
THUS THE HIGH TEMPS OVER THE REGION WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW A DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
WOBBLING OFF THE NE CST ON MON. NLY FLOW BHD THE FLOW WITH THE LWR
UPR HGTS WILL KEEP ISLTD TO SCT SHOWRS OVER THE FCST AREA...ESP
OVER THE NY ZONES...WITH BLO NRML DAYTIME TEMPS.

IRONICALLY...THE EURO IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AND
SHOWS SOME IMPRVMT LTR TUE INTO THU WITH WEAK SFC RDGG AND A
NARROW RDG ALOFT. GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE UPR LOW HANGING ARND AND
IN FACT CAPTURES A SRN STREAM SYSTEM LATE IN THE PD TO ENHANCE
THE UPR TROF.

MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE FCST IN THE LONG TERM LDG
TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST...NOT ALL THAT UNUSUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SO...CONTD WITH THE HPC GUID IDEA OF LOW CHANCE OR SLGT CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...ESP IN THE NRN AND ERN ZONES.
WITH THE NLY FLOW...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NRML...ESP DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z FRI UPDATE... UNRESTRICTED/VFR CONDS WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH
OF THE VALID TAF PD (THROUGH 12Z SAT). BRIEF MVFR/FUEL ALT
RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL THROUGH ABT 14Z...AS LWR CIGS/MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHWRS LINGER.

NW SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MRNG-AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING
AGN TNT (AFTER 00Z SAT).

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MON-TUE...OCNL -SHRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY NY
TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJN/MLJ



000
FXUS61 KBGM 241705
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
105 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1050 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS, DECIDED TO
LOWER MAXES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. MAXES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY WHEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE MID 30S.

330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING AS A FAIRLY COLD AIRMASS SITS OVER THE REGION. 700MB TEMPS
RANGE FROM -14 TO -16C. THIS AIRMASS HAVE TRIGGERED WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS. THIS UNSEASONAL COLD AIRMASS IS THE RESULT OF A
STACKED LOW THAT WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS
STACKED LOW MOVED EAST AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER MAINE... PLACING US
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS NW FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MSLP GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO REMAIN TIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND THE SFC LOW REMAINS PUT JUST EAST OF MAINE. THIS WILL
NOT HELP TEMPS RISE THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD AGAIN
TODAY... WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPR 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS IN NE PA MAY SEE TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER
50S.

CLOUDS WILL START TO BREAK APART DURING LATE EVENING AND THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER. SINCE CLEARING IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT... WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING ON SAT. FRI
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPR 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SATURDAY WILL BE QUIET AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AND THE UPPR LVL LOW DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 0 DEGREES C OVER
THE REGION AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO WESTERN PA. THIS WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST SAT AFTERNOON AND WASH IT OUT. BUT
THIS SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE UPPR LVL PATTERN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE
AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ON SAT THAN FRI. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
SEE TEMPS REACHING THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

SAT NIGHT THE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA... AND THE ATTENDANT PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR
CWA. SUNDAY THE STACKED LOW WILL RETROGRADE AND WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE
CHANGE FOR SHOWERS. 850MB TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL SUNDAY...
THUS THE HIGH TEMPS OVER THE REGION WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW A DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
WOBBLING OFF THE NE CST ON MON. NLY FLOW BHD THE FLOW WITH THE LWR
UPR HGTS WILL KEEP ISLTD TO SCT SHOWRS OVER THE FCST AREA...ESP
OVER THE NY ZONES...WITH BLO NRML DAYTIME TEMPS.

IRONICALLY...THE EURO IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AND
SHOWS SOME IMPRVMT LTR TUE INTO THU WITH WEAK SFC RDGG AND A
NARROW RDG ALOFT. GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE UPR LOW HANGING ARND AND
IN FACT CAPTURES A SRN STREAM SYSTEM LATE IN THE PD TO ENHANCE
THE UPR TROF.

MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE FCST IN THE LONG TERM LDG
TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST...NOT ALL THAT UNUSUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SO...CONTD WITH THE HPC GUID IDEA OF LOW CHANCE OR SLGT CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...ESP IN THE NRN AND ERN ZONES.
WITH THE NLY FLOW...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NRML...ESP DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z FRI UPDATE... UNRESTRICTED/VFR CONDS WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH
OF THE VALID TAF PD (THROUGH 12Z SAT). BRIEF MVFR/FUEL ALT
RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL THROUGH ABT 14Z...AS LWR CIGS/MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHWRS LINGER.

NW SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MRNG-AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING
AGN TNT (AFTER 00Z SAT).

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MON-TUE...OCNL -SHRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY NY
TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJN/MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBGM 241705
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
105 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1050 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS, DECIDED TO
LOWER MAXES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. MAXES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY WHEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE MID 30S.

330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING AS A FAIRLY COLD AIRMASS SITS OVER THE REGION. 700MB TEMPS
RANGE FROM -14 TO -16C. THIS AIRMASS HAVE TRIGGERED WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS. THIS UNSEASONAL COLD AIRMASS IS THE RESULT OF A
STACKED LOW THAT WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS
STACKED LOW MOVED EAST AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER MAINE... PLACING US
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS NW FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MSLP GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO REMAIN TIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND THE SFC LOW REMAINS PUT JUST EAST OF MAINE. THIS WILL
NOT HELP TEMPS RISE THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD AGAIN
TODAY... WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPR 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS IN NE PA MAY SEE TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER
50S.

CLOUDS WILL START TO BREAK APART DURING LATE EVENING AND THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER. SINCE CLEARING IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT... WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING ON SAT. FRI
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPR 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SATURDAY WILL BE QUIET AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AND THE UPPR LVL LOW DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 0 DEGREES C OVER
THE REGION AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO WESTERN PA. THIS WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST SAT AFTERNOON AND WASH IT OUT. BUT
THIS SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE UPPR LVL PATTERN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE
AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ON SAT THAN FRI. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
SEE TEMPS REACHING THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

SAT NIGHT THE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA... AND THE ATTENDANT PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR
CWA. SUNDAY THE STACKED LOW WILL RETROGRADE AND WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE
CHANGE FOR SHOWERS. 850MB TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL SUNDAY...
THUS THE HIGH TEMPS OVER THE REGION WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW A DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
WOBBLING OFF THE NE CST ON MON. NLY FLOW BHD THE FLOW WITH THE LWR
UPR HGTS WILL KEEP ISLTD TO SCT SHOWRS OVER THE FCST AREA...ESP
OVER THE NY ZONES...WITH BLO NRML DAYTIME TEMPS.

IRONICALLY...THE EURO IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AND
SHOWS SOME IMPRVMT LTR TUE INTO THU WITH WEAK SFC RDGG AND A
NARROW RDG ALOFT. GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE UPR LOW HANGING ARND AND
IN FACT CAPTURES A SRN STREAM SYSTEM LATE IN THE PD TO ENHANCE
THE UPR TROF.

MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE FCST IN THE LONG TERM LDG
TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST...NOT ALL THAT UNUSUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SO...CONTD WITH THE HPC GUID IDEA OF LOW CHANCE OR SLGT CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...ESP IN THE NRN AND ERN ZONES.
WITH THE NLY FLOW...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NRML...ESP DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z FRI UPDATE... UNRESTRICTED/VFR CONDS WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH
OF THE VALID TAF PD (THROUGH 12Z SAT). BRIEF MVFR/FUEL ALT
RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL THROUGH ABT 14Z...AS LWR CIGS/MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHWRS LINGER.

NW SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MRNG-AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING
AGN TNT (AFTER 00Z SAT).

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MON-TUE...OCNL -SHRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY NY
TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJN/MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241703
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
103 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 103 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY A FEW MORE DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...THAT PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE...WELL,
PESKY...ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER
LOW OVER MAINE MOVING SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW ROTATES IN TO
TAKE IT`S PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ALOFT, THE NET
RESULT FOR US ON THE GROUND WILL BE CONTINUED COOL, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT. I THINK MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THANKS TO
SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW LEVEL BLOCKED FLOW WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING SATURDAY, SO
PRECIPITATION MAY REFOCUS ITSELF A BIT MORE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY, SO JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF
SNOW.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT ROTATES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
TRIED TO PAINT IN AN INCREASE OF POPS FROM NORTHERN VERMONT
INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY.
STILL DON`T THINK IT WILL BE A VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT, JUST MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (RAIN & SNOW
STILL DEPENDING ON ELEVATION).

TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EVERY SO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH
DAY AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TAKES ON MORE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOURCE, BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HUNG WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE,
SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL
INFLUENCED BY CLOSED UPPER LOW IN GULF OF MAINE SLOWLY EXITING
EAST BY MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS ANOTHER TROUGH OR CUT OFF BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE INFLUENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW DIMINISHES WITH TIME WITH BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BEING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY-MONDAY
NIGHT. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AT NIGHT.

SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING TRYING TO SQUEEZE INTO THIS UGLY FLOW
PATTERN FOR TUE-WED THEN MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF NEXT
POTENTIAL TROUGH/UPPER LOW FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL (NORMAL U50S-L60S)THROUGH MON
THEN NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK PERHAPS TURNING COOLER TOWARD END OF NEXT
WEEK. MIN TEMPERATURES LARGELY 30S-L40S WITH UPPER 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY UNDER A
BKN-OVC SKY. SOME INSTABILITY/WRAPAROUND SHOWERS MAY RETURN...MAINLY
ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFT 21Z FRI AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFT 00Z
SAT...AFT 00Z POSSIBLE MVFR AT KSLK/KMPV. SURFACE WINDS WNW
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD -
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241703
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
103 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 103 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY A FEW MORE DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...THAT PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE...WELL,
PESKY...ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER
LOW OVER MAINE MOVING SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW ROTATES IN TO
TAKE IT`S PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ALOFT, THE NET
RESULT FOR US ON THE GROUND WILL BE CONTINUED COOL, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT. I THINK MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THANKS TO
SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW LEVEL BLOCKED FLOW WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING SATURDAY, SO
PRECIPITATION MAY REFOCUS ITSELF A BIT MORE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY, SO JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF
SNOW.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT ROTATES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
TRIED TO PAINT IN AN INCREASE OF POPS FROM NORTHERN VERMONT
INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY.
STILL DON`T THINK IT WILL BE A VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT, JUST MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (RAIN & SNOW
STILL DEPENDING ON ELEVATION).

TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EVERY SO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH
DAY AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TAKES ON MORE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOURCE, BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HUNG WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE,
SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL
INFLUENCED BY CLOSED UPPER LOW IN GULF OF MAINE SLOWLY EXITING
EAST BY MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS ANOTHER TROUGH OR CUT OFF BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE INFLUENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW DIMINISHES WITH TIME WITH BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BEING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY-MONDAY
NIGHT. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AT NIGHT.

SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING TRYING TO SQUEEZE INTO THIS UGLY FLOW
PATTERN FOR TUE-WED THEN MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF NEXT
POTENTIAL TROUGH/UPPER LOW FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL (NORMAL U50S-L60S)THROUGH MON
THEN NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK PERHAPS TURNING COOLER TOWARD END OF NEXT
WEEK. MIN TEMPERATURES LARGELY 30S-L40S WITH UPPER 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY UNDER A
BKN-OVC SKY. SOME INSTABILITY/WRAPAROUND SHOWERS MAY RETURN...MAINLY
ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFT 21Z FRI AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFT 00Z
SAT...AFT 00Z POSSIBLE MVFR AT KSLK/KMPV. SURFACE WINDS WNW
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD -
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW



000
FXUS61 KALY 241656
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1256 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK TO END THE
WEEK...AND START THE NEW WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR ACTUALLY FELL A DEGREE.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY DUE
TO THE CLOUDS AND COLD CORE ALOFT. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY 45-50 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE COULD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BUT ONLY A FEW
MINUTES AT MOST...AND NOT WORTH EVEN PLACING AS A TEMPO IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING PEAK. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS FROM A WEST OR
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO PERHAPS 30KTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KALB.

THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THE CIGS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...FIRST AT KPOU THEN THE OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH EXCELLENT
VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN...WNW AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

RH VALUES FALL TO 25-30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV
JPV FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KALY 241656
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1256 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK TO END THE
WEEK...AND START THE NEW WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR ACTUALLY FELL A DEGREE.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY DUE
TO THE CLOUDS AND COLD CORE ALOFT. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY 45-50 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE COULD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BUT ONLY A FEW
MINUTES AT MOST...AND NOT WORTH EVEN PLACING AS A TEMPO IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING PEAK. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS FROM A WEST OR
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO PERHAPS 30KTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KALB.

THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THE CIGS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...FIRST AT KPOU THEN THE OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH EXCELLENT
VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN...WNW AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

RH VALUES FALL TO 25-30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV
JPV FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 241656
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1256 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK TO END THE
WEEK...AND START THE NEW WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR ACTUALLY FELL A DEGREE.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY DUE
TO THE CLOUDS AND COLD CORE ALOFT. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY 45-50 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE COULD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BUT ONLY A FEW
MINUTES AT MOST...AND NOT WORTH EVEN PLACING AS A TEMPO IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING PEAK. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS FROM A WEST OR
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO PERHAPS 30KTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KALB.

THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THE CIGS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...FIRST AT KPOU THEN THE OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH EXCELLENT
VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN...WNW AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

RH VALUES FALL TO 25-30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV
JPV FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 241656
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1256 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK TO END THE
WEEK...AND START THE NEW WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR ACTUALLY FELL A DEGREE.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY DUE
TO THE CLOUDS AND COLD CORE ALOFT. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY 45-50 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE COULD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BUT ONLY A FEW
MINUTES AT MOST...AND NOT WORTH EVEN PLACING AS A TEMPO IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING PEAK. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS FROM A WEST OR
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO PERHAPS 30KTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KALB.

THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THE CIGS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...FIRST AT KPOU THEN THE OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH EXCELLENT
VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN...WNW AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

RH VALUES FALL TO 25-30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV
JPV FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 241656
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1256 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK TO END THE
WEEK...AND START THE NEW WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR ACTUALLY FELL A DEGREE.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY DUE
TO THE CLOUDS AND COLD CORE ALOFT. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY 45-50 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE COULD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BUT ONLY A FEW
MINUTES AT MOST...AND NOT WORTH EVEN PLACING AS A TEMPO IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING PEAK. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS FROM A WEST OR
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO PERHAPS 30KTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KALB.

THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THE CIGS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...FIRST AT KPOU THEN THE OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH EXCELLENT
VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN...WNW AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

RH VALUES FALL TO 25-30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV
JPV FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 241656
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1256 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK TO END THE
WEEK...AND START THE NEW WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR ACTUALLY FELL A DEGREE.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY DUE
TO THE CLOUDS AND COLD CORE ALOFT. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY 45-50 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE COULD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR BUT ONLY A FEW
MINUTES AT MOST...AND NOT WORTH EVEN PLACING AS A TEMPO IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET AGL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING PEAK. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS FROM A WEST OR
NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO PERHAPS 30KTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF AND KALB.

THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THE CIGS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...FIRST AT KPOU THEN THE OTHER
TAF SITES AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH EXCELLENT
VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN...WNW AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 20KTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

RH VALUES FALL TO 25-30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV
JPV FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBUF 241518
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1118 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY CONTINUE AT LATE MORNING...BUT ARE SHOWING A WEAKENING
TREND WITH TIME. WILL KEEP FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS IN THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR SHOULD DIMINISH THE PRECIP
FURTHER. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MOST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM YESTERDAY...AND THIS TREND IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE. BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING
HILLS WHERE THERE STILL MAY BE A SNOW PACK. THIS SHOULD OUTWEIGH THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A NARROW SWATH OF DRIER AIR PROMOTES
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LURKING
NEARBY...TO OUR EAST UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...AND TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MIDWEST WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESIDE. THOUGH OUR AIRMASS SATURDAY IS
ARRIVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AMPLE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTH OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
LIFT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE GREATER IN NUMBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETURNS BACK
TO THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER (LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW) REGION-WIDE.

AS THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS MODIFIES OVER TIME...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRINGS ATLANTIC SOURCED AIR WESTWARD DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
30S. WINDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAYTIME

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVEWAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES. PATCHY
MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT ROC THROUGH THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM W-E
TODAY...THOUGH THIS PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOWED BY DIURNAL LAKE
INDUCED CUMULUS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING. CIGS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN 4-5K FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE BUT JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 241518
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1118 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY CONTINUE AT LATE MORNING...BUT ARE SHOWING A WEAKENING
TREND WITH TIME. WILL KEEP FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS IN THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR SHOULD DIMINISH THE PRECIP
FURTHER. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MOST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM YESTERDAY...AND THIS TREND IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE. BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING
HILLS WHERE THERE STILL MAY BE A SNOW PACK. THIS SHOULD OUTWEIGH THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A NARROW SWATH OF DRIER AIR PROMOTES
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LURKING
NEARBY...TO OUR EAST UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...AND TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MIDWEST WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESIDE. THOUGH OUR AIRMASS SATURDAY IS
ARRIVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AMPLE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTH OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
LIFT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE GREATER IN NUMBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETURNS BACK
TO THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER (LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW) REGION-WIDE.

AS THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS MODIFIES OVER TIME...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRINGS ATLANTIC SOURCED AIR WESTWARD DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
30S. WINDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAYTIME

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVEWAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES. PATCHY
MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT ROC THROUGH THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM W-E
TODAY...THOUGH THIS PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOWED BY DIURNAL LAKE
INDUCED CUMULUS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING. CIGS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN 4-5K FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE BUT JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 241518
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1118 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY CONTINUE AT LATE MORNING...BUT ARE SHOWING A WEAKENING
TREND WITH TIME. WILL KEEP FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS IN THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR SHOULD DIMINISH THE PRECIP
FURTHER. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MOST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM YESTERDAY...AND THIS TREND IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE. BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING
HILLS WHERE THERE STILL MAY BE A SNOW PACK. THIS SHOULD OUTWEIGH THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A NARROW SWATH OF DRIER AIR PROMOTES
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LURKING
NEARBY...TO OUR EAST UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...AND TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MIDWEST WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESIDE. THOUGH OUR AIRMASS SATURDAY IS
ARRIVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AMPLE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTH OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
LIFT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE GREATER IN NUMBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETURNS BACK
TO THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER (LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW) REGION-WIDE.

AS THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS MODIFIES OVER TIME...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRINGS ATLANTIC SOURCED AIR WESTWARD DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
30S. WINDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAYTIME

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVEWAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES. PATCHY
MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT ROC THROUGH THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM W-E
TODAY...THOUGH THIS PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOWED BY DIURNAL LAKE
INDUCED CUMULUS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING. CIGS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN 4-5K FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE BUT JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 241518
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1118 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY CONTINUE AT LATE MORNING...BUT ARE SHOWING A WEAKENING
TREND WITH TIME. WILL KEEP FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS IN THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR SHOULD DIMINISH THE PRECIP
FURTHER. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MOST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM YESTERDAY...AND THIS TREND IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE. BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING
HILLS WHERE THERE STILL MAY BE A SNOW PACK. THIS SHOULD OUTWEIGH THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A NARROW SWATH OF DRIER AIR PROMOTES
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LURKING
NEARBY...TO OUR EAST UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...AND TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MIDWEST WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESIDE. THOUGH OUR AIRMASS SATURDAY IS
ARRIVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AMPLE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTH OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
LIFT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE GREATER IN NUMBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETURNS BACK
TO THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER (LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW) REGION-WIDE.

AS THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS MODIFIES OVER TIME...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRINGS ATLANTIC SOURCED AIR WESTWARD DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
30S. WINDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAYTIME

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVEWAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES. PATCHY
MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT ROC THROUGH THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM W-E
TODAY...THOUGH THIS PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOWED BY DIURNAL LAKE
INDUCED CUMULUS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING. CIGS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN 4-5K FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE BUT JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 241457
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1057 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE
WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RECORD
LOWS WILL MAY BE SET...SEE CLIMATE SECTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AND A GUSTY NW FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY
PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS FRI EVENING.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS
AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE FREQUENT GUSTY
WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936...36
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956...34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919...37
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971...39
KENNEDY NY *37/1971...37
ISLIP NY 36/2012...31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM/DW
MARINE...JMC/MET/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 241457
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1057 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE
WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RECORD
LOWS WILL MAY BE SET...SEE CLIMATE SECTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AND A GUSTY NW FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY
PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS FRI EVENING.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS
AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE FREQUENT GUSTY
WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936...36
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956...34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919...37
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971...39
KENNEDY NY *37/1971...37
ISLIP NY 36/2012...31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM/DW
MARINE...JMC/MET/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 241457
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1057 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE
WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RECORD
LOWS WILL MAY BE SET...SEE CLIMATE SECTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AND A GUSTY NW FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY
PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TAF THIS AFTN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF. GUSTS
COULD OCCASIONALLY PEAK TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS FRI EVENING.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS
AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE FREQUENT GUSTY
WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936...36
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956...34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919...37
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971...39
KENNEDY NY *37/1971...37
ISLIP NY 36/2012...31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM/DW
MARINE...JMC/MET/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBGM 241450
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1050 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY OVER
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. A BRIEF BREAK FROM WEATHER WILL
OCCUR ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 50S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
LAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1050 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS, DECIDED TO
LOWER MAXES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. MAXES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY WHEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE MID 30S.

330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING AS A FAIRLY COLD AIRMASS SITS OVER THE REGION. 700MB TEMPS
RANGE FROM -14 TO -16C. THIS AIRMASS HAVE TRIGGERED WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS. THIS UNSEASONAL COLD AIRMASS IS THE RESULT OF A
STACKED LOW THAT WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS
STACKED LOW MOVED EAST AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER MAINE... PLACING US
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS NW FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MSLP GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO REMAIN TIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND THE SFC LOW REMAINS PUT JUST EAST OF MAINE. THIS WILL
NOT HELP TEMPS RISE THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD AGAIN
TODAY... WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPR 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS IN NE PA MAY SEE TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER
50S.

CLOUDS WILL START TO BREAK APART DURING LATE EVENING AND THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER. SINCE CLEARING IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT... WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING ON SAT. FRI
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPR 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SATURDAY WILL BE QUIET AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AND THE UPPR LVL LOW DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 0 DEGREES C OVER
THE REGION AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO WESTERN PA. THIS WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST SAT AFTERNOON AND WASH IT OUT. BUT
THIS SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE UPPR LVL PATTERN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE
AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ON SAT THAN FRI. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
SEE TEMPS REACHING THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

SAT NIGHT THE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA... AND THE ATTENDANT PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR
CWA. SUNDAY THE STACKED LOW WILL RETROGRADE AND WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE
CHANGE FOR SHOWERS. 850MB TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL SUNDAY...
THUS THE HIGH TEMPS OVER THE REGION WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW A DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
WOBBLING OFF THE NE CST ON MON. NLY FLOW BHD THE FLOW WITH THE LWR
UPR HGTS WILL KEEP ISLTD TO SCT SHOWRS OVER THE FCST AREA...ESP
OVER THE NY ZONES...WITH BLO NRML DAYTIME TEMPS.

IRONICALLY...THE EURO IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AND
SHOWS SOME IMPRVMT LTR TUE INTO THU WITH WEAK SFC RDGG AND A
NARROW RDG ALOFT. GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE UPR LOW HANGING ARND AND
IN FACT CAPTURES A SRN STREAM SYSTEM LATE IN THE PD TO ENHANCE
THE UPR TROF.

MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE FCST IN THE LONG TERM LDG
TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST...NOT ALL THAT UNUSUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SO...CONTD WITH THE HPC GUID IDEA OF LOW CHANCE OR SLGT CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...ESP IN THE NRN AND ERN ZONES.
WITH THE NLY FLOW...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NRML...ESP DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z FRI UPDATE... UNRESTRICTED/VFR CONDS WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH
OF THE VALID TAF PD (THROUGH 12Z SAT). BRIEF MVFR/FUEL ALT
RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL THROUGH ABT 14Z...AS LWR CIGS/MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHWRS LINGER.

NW SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MRNG-AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING
AGN TNT (AFTER 00Z SAT).

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MON-TUE...OCNL -SHRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY NY
TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJN/MLJ



000
FXUS61 KBGM 241450
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1050 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY OVER
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. A BRIEF BREAK FROM WEATHER WILL
OCCUR ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 50S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
LAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1050 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS, DECIDED TO
LOWER MAXES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. MAXES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY WHEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE MID 30S.

330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING AS A FAIRLY COLD AIRMASS SITS OVER THE REGION. 700MB TEMPS
RANGE FROM -14 TO -16C. THIS AIRMASS HAVE TRIGGERED WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS. THIS UNSEASONAL COLD AIRMASS IS THE RESULT OF A
STACKED LOW THAT WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS
STACKED LOW MOVED EAST AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER MAINE... PLACING US
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS NW FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MSLP GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO REMAIN TIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND THE SFC LOW REMAINS PUT JUST EAST OF MAINE. THIS WILL
NOT HELP TEMPS RISE THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD AGAIN
TODAY... WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPR 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS IN NE PA MAY SEE TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER
50S.

CLOUDS WILL START TO BREAK APART DURING LATE EVENING AND THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER. SINCE CLEARING IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT... WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING ON SAT. FRI
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPR 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SATURDAY WILL BE QUIET AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AND THE UPPR LVL LOW DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 0 DEGREES C OVER
THE REGION AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO WESTERN PA. THIS WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST SAT AFTERNOON AND WASH IT OUT. BUT
THIS SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE UPPR LVL PATTERN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE
AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ON SAT THAN FRI. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
SEE TEMPS REACHING THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

SAT NIGHT THE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA... AND THE ATTENDANT PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR
CWA. SUNDAY THE STACKED LOW WILL RETROGRADE AND WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE
CHANGE FOR SHOWERS. 850MB TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL SUNDAY...
THUS THE HIGH TEMPS OVER THE REGION WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW A DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
WOBBLING OFF THE NE CST ON MON. NLY FLOW BHD THE FLOW WITH THE LWR
UPR HGTS WILL KEEP ISLTD TO SCT SHOWRS OVER THE FCST AREA...ESP
OVER THE NY ZONES...WITH BLO NRML DAYTIME TEMPS.

IRONICALLY...THE EURO IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AND
SHOWS SOME IMPRVMT LTR TUE INTO THU WITH WEAK SFC RDGG AND A
NARROW RDG ALOFT. GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE UPR LOW HANGING ARND AND
IN FACT CAPTURES A SRN STREAM SYSTEM LATE IN THE PD TO ENHANCE
THE UPR TROF.

MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE FCST IN THE LONG TERM LDG
TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST...NOT ALL THAT UNUSUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SO...CONTD WITH THE HPC GUID IDEA OF LOW CHANCE OR SLGT CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...ESP IN THE NRN AND ERN ZONES.
WITH THE NLY FLOW...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NRML...ESP DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z FRI UPDATE... UNRESTRICTED/VFR CONDS WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH
OF THE VALID TAF PD (THROUGH 12Z SAT). BRIEF MVFR/FUEL ALT
RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL THROUGH ABT 14Z...AS LWR CIGS/MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHWRS LINGER.

NW SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MRNG-AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING
AGN TNT (AFTER 00Z SAT).

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MON-TUE...OCNL -SHRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY NY
TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJN/MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBGM 241450
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1050 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY OVER
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. A BRIEF BREAK FROM WEATHER WILL
OCCUR ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 50S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
LAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1050 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS, DECIDED TO
LOWER MAXES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES. MAXES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
DAY WHEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, BUT IN THE MEANTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE MID 30S.

330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING AS A FAIRLY COLD AIRMASS SITS OVER THE REGION. 700MB TEMPS
RANGE FROM -14 TO -16C. THIS AIRMASS HAVE TRIGGERED WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS. THIS UNSEASONAL COLD AIRMASS IS THE RESULT OF A
STACKED LOW THAT WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS
STACKED LOW MOVED EAST AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER MAINE... PLACING US
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS NW FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MSLP GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO REMAIN TIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND THE SFC LOW REMAINS PUT JUST EAST OF MAINE. THIS WILL
NOT HELP TEMPS RISE THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD AGAIN
TODAY... WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPR 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS IN NE PA MAY SEE TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER
50S.

CLOUDS WILL START TO BREAK APART DURING LATE EVENING AND THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER. SINCE CLEARING IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT... WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING ON SAT. FRI
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPR 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SATURDAY WILL BE QUIET AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AND THE UPPR LVL LOW DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 0 DEGREES C OVER
THE REGION AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO WESTERN PA. THIS WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST SAT AFTERNOON AND WASH IT OUT. BUT
THIS SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE UPPR LVL PATTERN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE
AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ON SAT THAN FRI. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
SEE TEMPS REACHING THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

SAT NIGHT THE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA... AND THE ATTENDANT PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR
CWA. SUNDAY THE STACKED LOW WILL RETROGRADE AND WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE
CHANGE FOR SHOWERS. 850MB TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL SUNDAY...
THUS THE HIGH TEMPS OVER THE REGION WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW A DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
WOBBLING OFF THE NE CST ON MON. NLY FLOW BHD THE FLOW WITH THE LWR
UPR HGTS WILL KEEP ISLTD TO SCT SHOWRS OVER THE FCST AREA...ESP
OVER THE NY ZONES...WITH BLO NRML DAYTIME TEMPS.

IRONICALLY...THE EURO IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AND
SHOWS SOME IMPRVMT LTR TUE INTO THU WITH WEAK SFC RDGG AND A
NARROW RDG ALOFT. GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE UPR LOW HANGING ARND AND
IN FACT CAPTURES A SRN STREAM SYSTEM LATE IN THE PD TO ENHANCE
THE UPR TROF.

MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE FCST IN THE LONG TERM LDG
TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST...NOT ALL THAT UNUSUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SO...CONTD WITH THE HPC GUID IDEA OF LOW CHANCE OR SLGT CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...ESP IN THE NRN AND ERN ZONES.
WITH THE NLY FLOW...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NRML...ESP DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z FRI UPDATE... UNRESTRICTED/VFR CONDS WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH
OF THE VALID TAF PD (THROUGH 12Z SAT). BRIEF MVFR/FUEL ALT
RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL THROUGH ABT 14Z...AS LWR CIGS/MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHWRS LINGER.

NW SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MRNG-AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING
AGN TNT (AFTER 00Z SAT).

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MON-TUE...OCNL -SHRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY NY
TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJN/MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241446
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1046 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1046 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED ON
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND
THE 06Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE. FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 638 AM EDT FRIDAY...JUST A ROUTINE
LITTLE REFRESH TO INJECT CURRENT OBSERVATION/RADAR TRENDS INTO THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE AGAIN
BLOSSOMED ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS, JUST
EAST OF BURLINGTON. 06Z NAM DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THE FLOW IS STILL
MARGINALLY BLOCKED WITH RESPECT TO THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. THAT IS
PROBABLY CONTRIBUTING TO THE FORMATION OF THESE FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS. FLOW GOES UNBLOCKED A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. I LIKED THE
09Z HRRR DEPICTION OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY, AND MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TO BE SOMEWHAT IN LINE WITH THAT GUIDANCE.
THUS, THE CURRENT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END
SHORTLY, THEN A BREAK, THEN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHAT FOLLOWS ARE THE RAMBLINGS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE AT THIS EARLY HOUR.
RATHER ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW, WITH ONE
AREA OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE (AS EVIDENT WITH THE COOLER CLOUD
TOPS ON IR SATELLITE) LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOWS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATION. THIS MOISTURE IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND THE CLOUD TOPS
ARE WARMING -- A SIGNAL THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING
OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.

A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THUS IT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY, WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20MPH RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO ROUGHLY 3000-4000FT, AND WINDS UP AT
THAT LEVEL ARE JUST A TAD STRONGER, SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO
SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

OF NOTE WILL BE THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -4C, WHICH UNDER PERFECTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE CLOUDS, WE`LL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT, AND SHOULD
WORK OUT TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THUS MID/UPPER 40S IN
THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT, WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF
DESTABLIZATION THIS AFTERNOON, SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK. ELEVATION WILL CONTROL WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW.
IN GENERAL, SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 1200
FEET. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...THAT PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE...WELL,
PESKY...ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER
LOW OVER MAINE MOVING SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW ROTATES IN TO
TAKE IT`S PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ALOFT, THE NET
RESULT FOR US ON THE GROUND WILL BE CONTINUED COOL, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT. I THINK MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THANKS TO
SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW LEVEL BLOCKED FLOW WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING SATURDAY, SO
PRECIPITATION MAY REFOCUS ITSELF A BIT MORE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY, SO JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF
SNOW.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT ROTATES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
TRIED TO PAINT IN AN INCREASE OF POPS FROM NORTHERN VERMONT
INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY.
STILL DON`T THINK IT WILL BE A VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT, JUST MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (RAIN & SNOW
STILL DEPENDING ON ELEVATION).

TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EVERY SO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH
DAY AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TAKES ON MORE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOURCE, BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HUNG WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE,
SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL
INFLUENCED BY CLOSED UPPER LOW IN GULF OF MAINE SLOWLY EXITING
EAST BY MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS ANOTHER TROUGH OR CUT OFF BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE INFLUENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW DIMINISHES WITH TIME WITH BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BEING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY-MONDAY
NIGHT. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AT NIGHT.

SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING TRYING TO SQUEEZE INTO THIS UGLY FLOW
PATTERN FOR TUE-WED THEN MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF NEXT
POTENTIAL TROUGH/UPPER LOW FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL (NORMAL U50S-L60S)THROUGH MON
THEN NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK PERHAPS TURNING COOLER TOWARD END OF NEXT
WEEK. MIN TEMPERATURES LARGELY 30S-L40S WITH UPPER 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY UNDER A
BKN-OVC SKY. SOME INSTABILITY/WRAPAROUND SHOWERS MAY RETURN...MAINLY
ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFT 21Z FRI AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFT 00Z
SAT...AFT 00Z POSSIBLE MVFR AT KSLK/KMPV. SURFACE WINDS WNW
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD -
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW



000
FXUS61 KBTV 241446
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1046 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1046 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED ON
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND
THE 06Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE. FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 638 AM EDT FRIDAY...JUST A ROUTINE
LITTLE REFRESH TO INJECT CURRENT OBSERVATION/RADAR TRENDS INTO THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE AGAIN
BLOSSOMED ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS, JUST
EAST OF BURLINGTON. 06Z NAM DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THE FLOW IS STILL
MARGINALLY BLOCKED WITH RESPECT TO THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. THAT IS
PROBABLY CONTRIBUTING TO THE FORMATION OF THESE FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS. FLOW GOES UNBLOCKED A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. I LIKED THE
09Z HRRR DEPICTION OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY, AND MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TO BE SOMEWHAT IN LINE WITH THAT GUIDANCE.
THUS, THE CURRENT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END
SHORTLY, THEN A BREAK, THEN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHAT FOLLOWS ARE THE RAMBLINGS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE AT THIS EARLY HOUR.
RATHER ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW, WITH ONE
AREA OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE (AS EVIDENT WITH THE COOLER CLOUD
TOPS ON IR SATELLITE) LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOWS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATION. THIS MOISTURE IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND THE CLOUD TOPS
ARE WARMING -- A SIGNAL THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING
OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.

A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THUS IT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY, WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20MPH RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO ROUGHLY 3000-4000FT, AND WINDS UP AT
THAT LEVEL ARE JUST A TAD STRONGER, SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO
SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

OF NOTE WILL BE THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -4C, WHICH UNDER PERFECTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE CLOUDS, WE`LL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT, AND SHOULD
WORK OUT TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THUS MID/UPPER 40S IN
THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT, WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF
DESTABLIZATION THIS AFTERNOON, SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK. ELEVATION WILL CONTROL WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW.
IN GENERAL, SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 1200
FEET. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...THAT PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE...WELL,
PESKY...ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER
LOW OVER MAINE MOVING SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW ROTATES IN TO
TAKE IT`S PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ALOFT, THE NET
RESULT FOR US ON THE GROUND WILL BE CONTINUED COOL, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT. I THINK MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THANKS TO
SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW LEVEL BLOCKED FLOW WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING SATURDAY, SO
PRECIPITATION MAY REFOCUS ITSELF A BIT MORE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY, SO JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF
SNOW.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT ROTATES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
TRIED TO PAINT IN AN INCREASE OF POPS FROM NORTHERN VERMONT
INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY.
STILL DON`T THINK IT WILL BE A VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT, JUST MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (RAIN & SNOW
STILL DEPENDING ON ELEVATION).

TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EVERY SO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH
DAY AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TAKES ON MORE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOURCE, BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HUNG WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE,
SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL
INFLUENCED BY CLOSED UPPER LOW IN GULF OF MAINE SLOWLY EXITING
EAST BY MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS ANOTHER TROUGH OR CUT OFF BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE INFLUENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW DIMINISHES WITH TIME WITH BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BEING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY-MONDAY
NIGHT. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AT NIGHT.

SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING TRYING TO SQUEEZE INTO THIS UGLY FLOW
PATTERN FOR TUE-WED THEN MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF NEXT
POTENTIAL TROUGH/UPPER LOW FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL (NORMAL U50S-L60S)THROUGH MON
THEN NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK PERHAPS TURNING COOLER TOWARD END OF NEXT
WEEK. MIN TEMPERATURES LARGELY 30S-L40S WITH UPPER 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY UNDER A
BKN-OVC SKY. SOME INSTABILITY/WRAPAROUND SHOWERS MAY RETURN...MAINLY
ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFT 21Z FRI AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFT 00Z
SAT...AFT 00Z POSSIBLE MVFR AT KSLK/KMPV. SURFACE WINDS WNW
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD -
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241446
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1046 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1046 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED ON
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND
THE 06Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE. FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 638 AM EDT FRIDAY...JUST A ROUTINE
LITTLE REFRESH TO INJECT CURRENT OBSERVATION/RADAR TRENDS INTO THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE AGAIN
BLOSSOMED ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS, JUST
EAST OF BURLINGTON. 06Z NAM DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THE FLOW IS STILL
MARGINALLY BLOCKED WITH RESPECT TO THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. THAT IS
PROBABLY CONTRIBUTING TO THE FORMATION OF THESE FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS. FLOW GOES UNBLOCKED A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. I LIKED THE
09Z HRRR DEPICTION OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY, AND MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TO BE SOMEWHAT IN LINE WITH THAT GUIDANCE.
THUS, THE CURRENT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END
SHORTLY, THEN A BREAK, THEN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHAT FOLLOWS ARE THE RAMBLINGS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE AT THIS EARLY HOUR.
RATHER ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW, WITH ONE
AREA OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE (AS EVIDENT WITH THE COOLER CLOUD
TOPS ON IR SATELLITE) LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOWS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATION. THIS MOISTURE IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND THE CLOUD TOPS
ARE WARMING -- A SIGNAL THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING
OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.

A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THUS IT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY, WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20MPH RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO ROUGHLY 3000-4000FT, AND WINDS UP AT
THAT LEVEL ARE JUST A TAD STRONGER, SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO
SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

OF NOTE WILL BE THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -4C, WHICH UNDER PERFECTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE CLOUDS, WE`LL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT, AND SHOULD
WORK OUT TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THUS MID/UPPER 40S IN
THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT, WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF
DESTABLIZATION THIS AFTERNOON, SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK. ELEVATION WILL CONTROL WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW.
IN GENERAL, SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 1200
FEET. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...THAT PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE...WELL,
PESKY...ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER
LOW OVER MAINE MOVING SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW ROTATES IN TO
TAKE IT`S PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ALOFT, THE NET
RESULT FOR US ON THE GROUND WILL BE CONTINUED COOL, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT. I THINK MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THANKS TO
SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW LEVEL BLOCKED FLOW WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING SATURDAY, SO
PRECIPITATION MAY REFOCUS ITSELF A BIT MORE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY, SO JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF
SNOW.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT ROTATES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
TRIED TO PAINT IN AN INCREASE OF POPS FROM NORTHERN VERMONT
INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY.
STILL DON`T THINK IT WILL BE A VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT, JUST MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (RAIN & SNOW
STILL DEPENDING ON ELEVATION).

TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EVERY SO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH
DAY AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TAKES ON MORE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOURCE, BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HUNG WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE,
SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL
INFLUENCED BY CLOSED UPPER LOW IN GULF OF MAINE SLOWLY EXITING
EAST BY MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS ANOTHER TROUGH OR CUT OFF BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE INFLUENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW DIMINISHES WITH TIME WITH BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BEING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY-MONDAY
NIGHT. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AT NIGHT.

SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING TRYING TO SQUEEZE INTO THIS UGLY FLOW
PATTERN FOR TUE-WED THEN MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF NEXT
POTENTIAL TROUGH/UPPER LOW FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL (NORMAL U50S-L60S)THROUGH MON
THEN NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK PERHAPS TURNING COOLER TOWARD END OF NEXT
WEEK. MIN TEMPERATURES LARGELY 30S-L40S WITH UPPER 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY UNDER A
BKN-OVC SKY. SOME INSTABILITY/WRAPAROUND SHOWERS MAY RETURN...MAINLY
ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFT 21Z FRI AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFT 00Z
SAT...AFT 00Z POSSIBLE MVFR AT KSLK/KMPV. SURFACE WINDS WNW
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD -
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241446
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1046 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1046 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED ON
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND
THE 06Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE. FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 638 AM EDT FRIDAY...JUST A ROUTINE
LITTLE REFRESH TO INJECT CURRENT OBSERVATION/RADAR TRENDS INTO THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE AGAIN
BLOSSOMED ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS, JUST
EAST OF BURLINGTON. 06Z NAM DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THE FLOW IS STILL
MARGINALLY BLOCKED WITH RESPECT TO THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. THAT IS
PROBABLY CONTRIBUTING TO THE FORMATION OF THESE FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS. FLOW GOES UNBLOCKED A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. I LIKED THE
09Z HRRR DEPICTION OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY, AND MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TO BE SOMEWHAT IN LINE WITH THAT GUIDANCE.
THUS, THE CURRENT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END
SHORTLY, THEN A BREAK, THEN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHAT FOLLOWS ARE THE RAMBLINGS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE AT THIS EARLY HOUR.
RATHER ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW, WITH ONE
AREA OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE (AS EVIDENT WITH THE COOLER CLOUD
TOPS ON IR SATELLITE) LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOWS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATION. THIS MOISTURE IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND THE CLOUD TOPS
ARE WARMING -- A SIGNAL THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING
OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.

A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THUS IT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY, WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20MPH RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO ROUGHLY 3000-4000FT, AND WINDS UP AT
THAT LEVEL ARE JUST A TAD STRONGER, SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO
SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

OF NOTE WILL BE THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -4C, WHICH UNDER PERFECTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE CLOUDS, WE`LL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT, AND SHOULD
WORK OUT TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THUS MID/UPPER 40S IN
THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT, WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF
DESTABLIZATION THIS AFTERNOON, SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK. ELEVATION WILL CONTROL WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW.
IN GENERAL, SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 1200
FEET. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...THAT PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE...WELL,
PESKY...ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER
LOW OVER MAINE MOVING SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW ROTATES IN TO
TAKE IT`S PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ALOFT, THE NET
RESULT FOR US ON THE GROUND WILL BE CONTINUED COOL, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT. I THINK MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THANKS TO
SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW LEVEL BLOCKED FLOW WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING SATURDAY, SO
PRECIPITATION MAY REFOCUS ITSELF A BIT MORE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY, SO JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF
SNOW.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT ROTATES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
TRIED TO PAINT IN AN INCREASE OF POPS FROM NORTHERN VERMONT
INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY.
STILL DON`T THINK IT WILL BE A VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT, JUST MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (RAIN & SNOW
STILL DEPENDING ON ELEVATION).

TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EVERY SO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH
DAY AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TAKES ON MORE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOURCE, BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HUNG WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE,
SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL
INFLUENCED BY CLOSED UPPER LOW IN GULF OF MAINE SLOWLY EXITING
EAST BY MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS ANOTHER TROUGH OR CUT OFF BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE INFLUENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW DIMINISHES WITH TIME WITH BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BEING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY-MONDAY
NIGHT. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AT NIGHT.

SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING TRYING TO SQUEEZE INTO THIS UGLY FLOW
PATTERN FOR TUE-WED THEN MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF NEXT
POTENTIAL TROUGH/UPPER LOW FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL (NORMAL U50S-L60S)THROUGH MON
THEN NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK PERHAPS TURNING COOLER TOWARD END OF NEXT
WEEK. MIN TEMPERATURES LARGELY 30S-L40S WITH UPPER 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY UNDER A
BKN-OVC SKY. SOME INSTABILITY/WRAPAROUND SHOWERS MAY RETURN...MAINLY
ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFT 21Z FRI AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFT 00Z
SAT...AFT 00Z POSSIBLE MVFR AT KSLK/KMPV. SURFACE WINDS WNW
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD -
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241446
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1046 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1046 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED ON
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND
THE 06Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE. FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 638 AM EDT FRIDAY...JUST A ROUTINE
LITTLE REFRESH TO INJECT CURRENT OBSERVATION/RADAR TRENDS INTO THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE AGAIN
BLOSSOMED ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS, JUST
EAST OF BURLINGTON. 06Z NAM DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THE FLOW IS STILL
MARGINALLY BLOCKED WITH RESPECT TO THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. THAT IS
PROBABLY CONTRIBUTING TO THE FORMATION OF THESE FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS. FLOW GOES UNBLOCKED A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. I LIKED THE
09Z HRRR DEPICTION OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY, AND MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TO BE SOMEWHAT IN LINE WITH THAT GUIDANCE.
THUS, THE CURRENT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END
SHORTLY, THEN A BREAK, THEN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHAT FOLLOWS ARE THE RAMBLINGS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE AT THIS EARLY HOUR.
RATHER ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW, WITH ONE
AREA OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE (AS EVIDENT WITH THE COOLER CLOUD
TOPS ON IR SATELLITE) LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOWS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATION. THIS MOISTURE IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND THE CLOUD TOPS
ARE WARMING -- A SIGNAL THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING
OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.

A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THUS IT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY, WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20MPH RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO ROUGHLY 3000-4000FT, AND WINDS UP AT
THAT LEVEL ARE JUST A TAD STRONGER, SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO
SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

OF NOTE WILL BE THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -4C, WHICH UNDER PERFECTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE CLOUDS, WE`LL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT, AND SHOULD
WORK OUT TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THUS MID/UPPER 40S IN
THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT, WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF
DESTABLIZATION THIS AFTERNOON, SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK. ELEVATION WILL CONTROL WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW.
IN GENERAL, SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 1200
FEET. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...THAT PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE...WELL,
PESKY...ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER
LOW OVER MAINE MOVING SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW ROTATES IN TO
TAKE IT`S PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ALOFT, THE NET
RESULT FOR US ON THE GROUND WILL BE CONTINUED COOL, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT. I THINK MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THANKS TO
SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW LEVEL BLOCKED FLOW WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING SATURDAY, SO
PRECIPITATION MAY REFOCUS ITSELF A BIT MORE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY, SO JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF
SNOW.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT ROTATES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
TRIED TO PAINT IN AN INCREASE OF POPS FROM NORTHERN VERMONT
INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY.
STILL DON`T THINK IT WILL BE A VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT, JUST MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (RAIN & SNOW
STILL DEPENDING ON ELEVATION).

TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EVERY SO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH
DAY AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TAKES ON MORE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOURCE, BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HUNG WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE,
SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL
INFLUENCED BY CLOSED UPPER LOW IN GULF OF MAINE SLOWLY EXITING
EAST BY MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS ANOTHER TROUGH OR CUT OFF BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE INFLUENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW DIMINISHES WITH TIME WITH BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BEING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY-MONDAY
NIGHT. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AT NIGHT.

SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING TRYING TO SQUEEZE INTO THIS UGLY FLOW
PATTERN FOR TUE-WED THEN MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF NEXT
POTENTIAL TROUGH/UPPER LOW FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL (NORMAL U50S-L60S)THROUGH MON
THEN NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK PERHAPS TURNING COOLER TOWARD END OF NEXT
WEEK. MIN TEMPERATURES LARGELY 30S-L40S WITH UPPER 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY UNDER A
BKN-OVC SKY. SOME INSTABILITY/WRAPAROUND SHOWERS MAY RETURN...MAINLY
ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFT 21Z FRI AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFT 00Z
SAT...AFT 00Z POSSIBLE MVFR AT KSLK/KMPV. SURFACE WINDS WNW
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD -
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241446
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1046 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1046 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED ON
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND
THE 06Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE. FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 638 AM EDT FRIDAY...JUST A ROUTINE
LITTLE REFRESH TO INJECT CURRENT OBSERVATION/RADAR TRENDS INTO THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE AGAIN
BLOSSOMED ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS, JUST
EAST OF BURLINGTON. 06Z NAM DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THE FLOW IS STILL
MARGINALLY BLOCKED WITH RESPECT TO THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. THAT IS
PROBABLY CONTRIBUTING TO THE FORMATION OF THESE FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS. FLOW GOES UNBLOCKED A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. I LIKED THE
09Z HRRR DEPICTION OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY, AND MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TO BE SOMEWHAT IN LINE WITH THAT GUIDANCE.
THUS, THE CURRENT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END
SHORTLY, THEN A BREAK, THEN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHAT FOLLOWS ARE THE RAMBLINGS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE AT THIS EARLY HOUR.
RATHER ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW, WITH ONE
AREA OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE (AS EVIDENT WITH THE COOLER CLOUD
TOPS ON IR SATELLITE) LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOWS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATION. THIS MOISTURE IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND THE CLOUD TOPS
ARE WARMING -- A SIGNAL THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING
OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.

A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THUS IT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY, WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20MPH RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO ROUGHLY 3000-4000FT, AND WINDS UP AT
THAT LEVEL ARE JUST A TAD STRONGER, SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO
SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

OF NOTE WILL BE THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -4C, WHICH UNDER PERFECTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE CLOUDS, WE`LL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT, AND SHOULD
WORK OUT TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THUS MID/UPPER 40S IN
THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT, WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF
DESTABLIZATION THIS AFTERNOON, SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK. ELEVATION WILL CONTROL WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW.
IN GENERAL, SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 1200
FEET. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...THAT PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE...WELL,
PESKY...ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER
LOW OVER MAINE MOVING SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW ROTATES IN TO
TAKE IT`S PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ALOFT, THE NET
RESULT FOR US ON THE GROUND WILL BE CONTINUED COOL, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT. I THINK MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THANKS TO
SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW LEVEL BLOCKED FLOW WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING SATURDAY, SO
PRECIPITATION MAY REFOCUS ITSELF A BIT MORE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY, SO JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF
SNOW.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT ROTATES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
TRIED TO PAINT IN AN INCREASE OF POPS FROM NORTHERN VERMONT
INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY.
STILL DON`T THINK IT WILL BE A VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT, JUST MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (RAIN & SNOW
STILL DEPENDING ON ELEVATION).

TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EVERY SO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH
DAY AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TAKES ON MORE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOURCE, BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HUNG WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE,
SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL
INFLUENCED BY CLOSED UPPER LOW IN GULF OF MAINE SLOWLY EXITING
EAST BY MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS ANOTHER TROUGH OR CUT OFF BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE INFLUENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW DIMINISHES WITH TIME WITH BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BEING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY-MONDAY
NIGHT. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AT NIGHT.

SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING TRYING TO SQUEEZE INTO THIS UGLY FLOW
PATTERN FOR TUE-WED THEN MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF NEXT
POTENTIAL TROUGH/UPPER LOW FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL (NORMAL U50S-L60S)THROUGH MON
THEN NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK PERHAPS TURNING COOLER TOWARD END OF NEXT
WEEK. MIN TEMPERATURES LARGELY 30S-L40S WITH UPPER 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY UNDER A
BKN-OVC SKY. SOME INSTABILITY/WRAPAROUND SHOWERS MAY RETURN...MAINLY
ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFT 21Z FRI AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFT 00Z
SAT...AFT 00Z POSSIBLE MVFR AT KSLK/KMPV. SURFACE WINDS WNW
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD -
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW




000
FXUS61 KALY 241423
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK TO END THE
WEEK...AND START THE NEW WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS OF 1015 AM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR ACTUALLY FELL A DEGREE.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY DUE
TO THE CLOUDS AND COLD CORE ALOFT. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY 45-50 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD ENDING 12Z/SAT. PLENTY OF CLOUDS...MAINLY IN VFR
RANGE...WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSF...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ANY
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED THAN THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY PASSING SNOW SHOWERS COULD EASILY DROP VSBYS INTO
THE MVFR/IFR RANGE.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12-15 KTS THIS
MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL THEN
DECREASE SLIGHTLY SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY AT 8-12 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

     RH VALUES FALL TO 25-35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY
AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KALY 241423
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK TO END THE
WEEK...AND START THE NEW WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS OF 1015 AM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR ACTUALLY FELL A DEGREE.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY DUE
TO THE CLOUDS AND COLD CORE ALOFT. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY 45-50 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD ENDING 12Z/SAT. PLENTY OF CLOUDS...MAINLY IN VFR
RANGE...WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSF...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ANY
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED THAN THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY PASSING SNOW SHOWERS COULD EASILY DROP VSBYS INTO
THE MVFR/IFR RANGE.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12-15 KTS THIS
MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL THEN
DECREASE SLIGHTLY SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY AT 8-12 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

     RH VALUES FALL TO 25-35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY
AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KALY 241423
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK TO END THE
WEEK...AND START THE NEW WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS OF 1015 AM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR ACTUALLY FELL A DEGREE.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY DUE
TO THE CLOUDS AND COLD CORE ALOFT. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY 45-50 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD ENDING 12Z/SAT. PLENTY OF CLOUDS...MAINLY IN VFR
RANGE...WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSF...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ANY
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED THAN THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY PASSING SNOW SHOWERS COULD EASILY DROP VSBYS INTO
THE MVFR/IFR RANGE.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12-15 KTS THIS
MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL THEN
DECREASE SLIGHTLY SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY AT 8-12 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

     RH VALUES FALL TO 25-35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY
AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KALY 241423
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK TO END THE
WEEK...AND START THE NEW WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS OF 1015 AM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR ACTUALLY FELL A DEGREE.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY DUE
TO THE CLOUDS AND COLD CORE ALOFT. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY 45-50 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD ENDING 12Z/SAT. PLENTY OF CLOUDS...MAINLY IN VFR
RANGE...WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSF...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ANY
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED THAN THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY PASSING SNOW SHOWERS COULD EASILY DROP VSBYS INTO
THE MVFR/IFR RANGE.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12-15 KTS THIS
MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL THEN
DECREASE SLIGHTLY SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY AT 8-12 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

     RH VALUES FALL TO 25-35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY
AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KALY 241423
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK TO END THE
WEEK...AND START THE NEW WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS OF 1015 AM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR ACTUALLY FELL A DEGREE.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY DUE
TO THE CLOUDS AND COLD CORE ALOFT. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY 45-50 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD ENDING 12Z/SAT. PLENTY OF CLOUDS...MAINLY IN VFR
RANGE...WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSF...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ANY
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED THAN THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY PASSING SNOW SHOWERS COULD EASILY DROP VSBYS INTO
THE MVFR/IFR RANGE.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12-15 KTS THIS
MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL THEN
DECREASE SLIGHTLY SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY AT 8-12 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

     RH VALUES FALL TO 25-35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY
AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 241423
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK TO END THE
WEEK...AND START THE NEW WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS OF 1015 AM EDT...NOTHING MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM BEFORE...LOTS OF
CLOUDS...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
IN FACT AT ALBANY...TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR ACTUALLY FELL A DEGREE.

ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE WITH THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURE JUST OFF THE DECK. THE FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC SO IT LOOKS
AS IF THE CLOUDS ARE HERE TO STAY ONCE MORE.

FOR THIS UPDATED...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY DUE
TO THE CLOUDS AND COLD CORE ALOFT. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY 45-50 IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A BRISK WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE THESE
VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.

ALSO BELIEVE MOSTLY SNOW (OR GRAUPEL) WILL FALL ONCE MORE SO HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 43 DEGREES (DUE TO THE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR ALOFT). ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FORECAST AREA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WAVES WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FORECAST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TOWARD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VALLEY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DEKA METER CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
REGION. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF REGION GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD ENDING 12Z/SAT. PLENTY OF CLOUDS...MAINLY IN VFR
RANGE...WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSF...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ANY
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED THAN THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY PASSING SNOW SHOWERS COULD EASILY DROP VSBYS INTO
THE MVFR/IFR RANGE.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12-15 KTS THIS
MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL THEN
DECREASE SLIGHTLY SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY AT 8-12 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

     RH VALUES FALL TO 25-35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY
AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241346
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
946 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE
WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RECORD
LOWS WILL MAY BE SET...SEE CLIMATE SECTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AND A GUSTY NW FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS FRI EVENING.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS
AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE FREQUENT GUSTY
WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936...36
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956...34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919...37
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971...39
KENNEDY NY *37/1971...37
ISLIP NY 36/2012...31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/MET/PW
FIRE WEATHER...PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBTV 241137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 638 AM EDT FRIDAY...JUST A ROUTINE LITTLE REFRESH TO INJECT
CURRENT OBSERVATION/RADAR TRENDS INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
FORECAST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE AGAIN BLOSSOMED ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS, JUST EAST OF BURLINGTON.
06Z NAM DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THE FLOW IS STILL MARGINALLY BLOCKED
WITH RESPECT TO THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. THAT IS PROBABLY CONTRIBUTING
TO THE FORMATION OF THESE FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS. FLOW GOES
UNBLOCKED A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. I LIKED THE 09Z HRRR DEPICTION
OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY, AND MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS TO BE SOMEWHAT IN LINE WITH THAT GUIDANCE. THUS, THE CURRENT
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END SHORTLY, THEN A BREAK,
THEN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHAT FOLLOWS ARE THE RAMBLINGS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE AT THIS EARLY HOUR.
RATHER ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW, WITH ONE
AREA OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE (AS EVIDENT WITH THE COOLER CLOUD
TOPS ON IR SATELLITE) LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOWS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATION. THIS MOISTURE IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND THE CLOUD TOPS
ARE WARMING -- A SIGNAL THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING
OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.

A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THUS IT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY, WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20MPH RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO ROUGHLY 3000-4000FT, AND WINDS UP AT
THAT LEVEL ARE JUST A TAD STRONGER, SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO
SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

OF NOTE WILL BE THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -4C, WHICH UNDER PERFECTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE CLOUDS, WE`LL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT, AND SHOULD
WORK OUT TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THUS MID/UPPER 40S IN
THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT, WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF
DESTABLIZATION THIS AFTERNOON, SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK. ELEVATION WILL CONTROL WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW.
IN GENERAL, SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 1200
FEET. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...THAT PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE...WELL,
PESKY...ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER
LOW OVER MAINE MOVING SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW ROTATES IN TO
TAKE IT`S PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ALOFT, THE NET
RESULT FOR US ON THE GROUND WILL BE CONTINUED COOL, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT. I THINK MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THANKS TO
SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW LEVEL BLOCKED FLOW WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING SATURDAY, SO
PRECIPITATION MAY REFOCUS ITSELF A BIT MORE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY, SO JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF
SNOW.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT ROTATES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
TRIED TO PAINT IN AN INCREASE OF POPS FROM NORTHERN VERMONT
INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY.
STILL DON`T THINK IT WILL BE A VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT, JUST MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (RAIN & SNOW
STILL DEPENDING ON ELEVATION).

TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EVERY SO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH
DAY AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TAKES ON MORE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOURCE, BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HUNG WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE,
SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL
INFLUENCED BY CLOSED UPPER LOW IN GULF OF MAINE SLOWLY EXITING
EAST BY MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS ANOTHER TROUGH OR CUT OFF BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE INFLUENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW DIMINISHES WITH TIME WITH BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BEING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY-MONDAY
NIGHT. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AT NIGHT.

SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING TRYING TO SQUEEZE INTO THIS UGLY FLOW
PATTERN FOR TUE-WED THEN MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF NEXT
POTENTIAL TROUGH/UPPER LOW FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL (NORMAL U50S-L60S)THROUGH MON
THEN NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK PERHAPS TURNING COOLER TOWARD END OF NEXT
WEEK. MIN TEMPERATURES LARGELY 30S-L40S WITH UPPER 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY UNDER A
BKN-OVC SKY. SOME INSTABILITY/WRAPAROUND SHOWERS MAY RETURN...MAINLY
ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFT 21Z FRI AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFT 00Z
SAT...AFT 00Z POSSIBLE MVFR AT KSLK/KMPV. SURFACE WINDS WNW
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD -
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATED 1102 PM THURSDAY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE
BARTON RIVER NEAR COVENTRY. THE RIVER WENT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WENT UP QUICKLY...CRESTING AROUND 8.8 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SINCE THEN...THE WATER LEVEL OF THE RIVER HAS BEGUN TO
FALL...AND AT 11 PM IT WAS AT 8.4 FEET. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY THE BARTON RIVER NEAR COVENTRY IS
THE ONLY RIVER THAT WE EXPECT TO REACH FLOOD STAGE AS MOST OF THE
OTHER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
HYDROLOGY...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 241137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 638 AM EDT FRIDAY...JUST A ROUTINE LITTLE REFRESH TO INJECT
CURRENT OBSERVATION/RADAR TRENDS INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
FORECAST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE AGAIN BLOSSOMED ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS, JUST EAST OF BURLINGTON.
06Z NAM DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THE FLOW IS STILL MARGINALLY BLOCKED
WITH RESPECT TO THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. THAT IS PROBABLY CONTRIBUTING
TO THE FORMATION OF THESE FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS. FLOW GOES
UNBLOCKED A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. I LIKED THE 09Z HRRR DEPICTION
OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY, AND MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS TO BE SOMEWHAT IN LINE WITH THAT GUIDANCE. THUS, THE CURRENT
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END SHORTLY, THEN A BREAK,
THEN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHAT FOLLOWS ARE THE RAMBLINGS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE AT THIS EARLY HOUR.
RATHER ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW, WITH ONE
AREA OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE (AS EVIDENT WITH THE COOLER CLOUD
TOPS ON IR SATELLITE) LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOWS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATION. THIS MOISTURE IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND THE CLOUD TOPS
ARE WARMING -- A SIGNAL THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING
OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.

A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THUS IT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY, WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20MPH RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO ROUGHLY 3000-4000FT, AND WINDS UP AT
THAT LEVEL ARE JUST A TAD STRONGER, SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO
SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

OF NOTE WILL BE THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -4C, WHICH UNDER PERFECTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE CLOUDS, WE`LL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT, AND SHOULD
WORK OUT TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THUS MID/UPPER 40S IN
THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT, WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF
DESTABLIZATION THIS AFTERNOON, SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK. ELEVATION WILL CONTROL WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW.
IN GENERAL, SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 1200
FEET. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...THAT PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE...WELL,
PESKY...ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER
LOW OVER MAINE MOVING SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW ROTATES IN TO
TAKE IT`S PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ALOFT, THE NET
RESULT FOR US ON THE GROUND WILL BE CONTINUED COOL, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT. I THINK MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THANKS TO
SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW LEVEL BLOCKED FLOW WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING SATURDAY, SO
PRECIPITATION MAY REFOCUS ITSELF A BIT MORE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY, SO JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF
SNOW.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT ROTATES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
TRIED TO PAINT IN AN INCREASE OF POPS FROM NORTHERN VERMONT
INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY.
STILL DON`T THINK IT WILL BE A VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT, JUST MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (RAIN & SNOW
STILL DEPENDING ON ELEVATION).

TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EVERY SO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH
DAY AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TAKES ON MORE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOURCE, BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HUNG WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE,
SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL
INFLUENCED BY CLOSED UPPER LOW IN GULF OF MAINE SLOWLY EXITING
EAST BY MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS ANOTHER TROUGH OR CUT OFF BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE INFLUENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW DIMINISHES WITH TIME WITH BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BEING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY-MONDAY
NIGHT. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AT NIGHT.

SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING TRYING TO SQUEEZE INTO THIS UGLY FLOW
PATTERN FOR TUE-WED THEN MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF NEXT
POTENTIAL TROUGH/UPPER LOW FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL (NORMAL U50S-L60S)THROUGH MON
THEN NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK PERHAPS TURNING COOLER TOWARD END OF NEXT
WEEK. MIN TEMPERATURES LARGELY 30S-L40S WITH UPPER 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY UNDER A
BKN-OVC SKY. SOME INSTABILITY/WRAPAROUND SHOWERS MAY RETURN...MAINLY
ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFT 21Z FRI AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFT 00Z
SAT...AFT 00Z POSSIBLE MVFR AT KSLK/KMPV. SURFACE WINDS WNW
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD -
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATED 1102 PM THURSDAY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE
BARTON RIVER NEAR COVENTRY. THE RIVER WENT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WENT UP QUICKLY...CRESTING AROUND 8.8 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SINCE THEN...THE WATER LEVEL OF THE RIVER HAS BEGUN TO
FALL...AND AT 11 PM IT WAS AT 8.4 FEET. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY THE BARTON RIVER NEAR COVENTRY IS
THE ONLY RIVER THAT WE EXPECT TO REACH FLOOD STAGE AS MOST OF THE
OTHER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
HYDROLOGY...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBUF 241111
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
711 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR MAINE. SATELLITE SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE
TAPPING INTO SOME MOISTURE OFF OF GEORGIAN BAY. THIS IS CAPTURED BY
MOST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/WRF/ARW)...AND SHOULD ENHANCE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MID-MORNING.
RADAR SHOWS THIS FOCUSING ON OSWEGO COUNTY...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF THE TUG HILL. MEANWHILE TO THE
WEST OF THIS IR SATELLITE SHOWS DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
FLURRIES SHOULD TAPER OFF WEST OF ROCHESTER WHERE THIS DRIER AIR
WILL RESULT IN A PARTIAL CLEARING.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES EVEN IN THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT OF THE
DISTURBANCE LATE THIS MORNING. PARTIAL MORNING SUNSHINE IS LIKELY TO
FILL IN WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIER LOW-MID
LEVEL AIR FINALLY WINS OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW.

MOST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM YESTERDAY...AND THIS TREND IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE. BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING
HILLS WHERE THERE STILL MAY BE A SNOW PACK. THIS SHOULD OUTWEIGH THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A NARROW SWATH OF DRIER AIR PROMOTES
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LURKING
NEARBY...TO OUR EAST UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...AND TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MIDWEST WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESIDE. THOUGH OUR AIRMASS SATURDAY IS
ARRIVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AMPLE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTH OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
LIFT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE GREATER IN NUMBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETURNS BACK
TO THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER (LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW) REGION-WIDE.

AS THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS MODIFIES OVER TIME...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRINGS ATLANTIC SOURCED AIR WESTWARD DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
30S. WINDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAYTIME

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVEWAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES. PATCHY
MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT ROC THROUGH THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM W-E
TODAY...THOUGH THIS PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOWED BY DIURNAL LAKE
INDUCED CUMULUS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING. CIGS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN 4-5K FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE BUT JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS






000
FXUS61 KBUF 241111
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
711 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR MAINE. SATELLITE SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE
TAPPING INTO SOME MOISTURE OFF OF GEORGIAN BAY. THIS IS CAPTURED BY
MOST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/WRF/ARW)...AND SHOULD ENHANCE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MID-MORNING.
RADAR SHOWS THIS FOCUSING ON OSWEGO COUNTY...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF THE TUG HILL. MEANWHILE TO THE
WEST OF THIS IR SATELLITE SHOWS DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
FLURRIES SHOULD TAPER OFF WEST OF ROCHESTER WHERE THIS DRIER AIR
WILL RESULT IN A PARTIAL CLEARING.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES EVEN IN THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT OF THE
DISTURBANCE LATE THIS MORNING. PARTIAL MORNING SUNSHINE IS LIKELY TO
FILL IN WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIER LOW-MID
LEVEL AIR FINALLY WINS OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW.

MOST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM YESTERDAY...AND THIS TREND IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE. BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING
HILLS WHERE THERE STILL MAY BE A SNOW PACK. THIS SHOULD OUTWEIGH THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A NARROW SWATH OF DRIER AIR PROMOTES
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LURKING
NEARBY...TO OUR EAST UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...AND TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MIDWEST WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESIDE. THOUGH OUR AIRMASS SATURDAY IS
ARRIVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AMPLE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTH OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
LIFT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE GREATER IN NUMBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETURNS BACK
TO THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER (LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW) REGION-WIDE.

AS THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS MODIFIES OVER TIME...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRINGS ATLANTIC SOURCED AIR WESTWARD DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
30S. WINDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAYTIME

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVEWAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES. PATCHY
MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT ROC THROUGH THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM W-E
TODAY...THOUGH THIS PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOWED BY DIURNAL LAKE
INDUCED CUMULUS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING. CIGS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN 4-5K FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE BUT JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 241111
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
711 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR MAINE. SATELLITE SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE
TAPPING INTO SOME MOISTURE OFF OF GEORGIAN BAY. THIS IS CAPTURED BY
MOST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/WRF/ARW)...AND SHOULD ENHANCE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MID-MORNING.
RADAR SHOWS THIS FOCUSING ON OSWEGO COUNTY...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF THE TUG HILL. MEANWHILE TO THE
WEST OF THIS IR SATELLITE SHOWS DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
FLURRIES SHOULD TAPER OFF WEST OF ROCHESTER WHERE THIS DRIER AIR
WILL RESULT IN A PARTIAL CLEARING.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES EVEN IN THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT OF THE
DISTURBANCE LATE THIS MORNING. PARTIAL MORNING SUNSHINE IS LIKELY TO
FILL IN WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIER LOW-MID
LEVEL AIR FINALLY WINS OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW.

MOST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM YESTERDAY...AND THIS TREND IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE. BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING
HILLS WHERE THERE STILL MAY BE A SNOW PACK. THIS SHOULD OUTWEIGH THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A NARROW SWATH OF DRIER AIR PROMOTES
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LURKING
NEARBY...TO OUR EAST UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...AND TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MIDWEST WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESIDE. THOUGH OUR AIRMASS SATURDAY IS
ARRIVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AMPLE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTH OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
LIFT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE GREATER IN NUMBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETURNS BACK
TO THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER (LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW) REGION-WIDE.

AS THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS MODIFIES OVER TIME...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRINGS ATLANTIC SOURCED AIR WESTWARD DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
30S. WINDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAYTIME

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVEWAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES. PATCHY
MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT ROC THROUGH THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM W-E
TODAY...THOUGH THIS PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOWED BY DIURNAL LAKE
INDUCED CUMULUS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING. CIGS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN 4-5K FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE BUT JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 241111
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
711 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR MAINE. SATELLITE SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE
TAPPING INTO SOME MOISTURE OFF OF GEORGIAN BAY. THIS IS CAPTURED BY
MOST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/WRF/ARW)...AND SHOULD ENHANCE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MID-MORNING.
RADAR SHOWS THIS FOCUSING ON OSWEGO COUNTY...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF THE TUG HILL. MEANWHILE TO THE
WEST OF THIS IR SATELLITE SHOWS DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
FLURRIES SHOULD TAPER OFF WEST OF ROCHESTER WHERE THIS DRIER AIR
WILL RESULT IN A PARTIAL CLEARING.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES EVEN IN THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT OF THE
DISTURBANCE LATE THIS MORNING. PARTIAL MORNING SUNSHINE IS LIKELY TO
FILL IN WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIER LOW-MID
LEVEL AIR FINALLY WINS OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW.

MOST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM YESTERDAY...AND THIS TREND IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE. BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING
HILLS WHERE THERE STILL MAY BE A SNOW PACK. THIS SHOULD OUTWEIGH THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A NARROW SWATH OF DRIER AIR PROMOTES
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LURKING
NEARBY...TO OUR EAST UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...AND TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MIDWEST WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESIDE. THOUGH OUR AIRMASS SATURDAY IS
ARRIVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AMPLE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTH OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
LIFT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE GREATER IN NUMBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETURNS BACK
TO THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER (LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW) REGION-WIDE.

AS THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS MODIFIES OVER TIME...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRINGS ATLANTIC SOURCED AIR WESTWARD DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
30S. WINDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAYTIME

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVEWAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES. PATCHY
MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT ROC THROUGH THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM W-E
TODAY...THOUGH THIS PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOWED BY DIURNAL LAKE
INDUCED CUMULUS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING. CIGS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN 4-5K FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE BUT JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 241111
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
711 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR MAINE. SATELLITE SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE
TAPPING INTO SOME MOISTURE OFF OF GEORGIAN BAY. THIS IS CAPTURED BY
MOST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/WRF/ARW)...AND SHOULD ENHANCE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MID-MORNING.
RADAR SHOWS THIS FOCUSING ON OSWEGO COUNTY...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF THE TUG HILL. MEANWHILE TO THE
WEST OF THIS IR SATELLITE SHOWS DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
FLURRIES SHOULD TAPER OFF WEST OF ROCHESTER WHERE THIS DRIER AIR
WILL RESULT IN A PARTIAL CLEARING.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES EVEN IN THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT OF THE
DISTURBANCE LATE THIS MORNING. PARTIAL MORNING SUNSHINE IS LIKELY TO
FILL IN WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIER LOW-MID
LEVEL AIR FINALLY WINS OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW.

MOST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM YESTERDAY...AND THIS TREND IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE. BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING
HILLS WHERE THERE STILL MAY BE A SNOW PACK. THIS SHOULD OUTWEIGH THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A NARROW SWATH OF DRIER AIR PROMOTES
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LURKING
NEARBY...TO OUR EAST UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...AND TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MIDWEST WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESIDE. THOUGH OUR AIRMASS SATURDAY IS
ARRIVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AMPLE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTH OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
LIFT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE GREATER IN NUMBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETURNS BACK
TO THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER (LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW) REGION-WIDE.

AS THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS MODIFIES OVER TIME...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRINGS ATLANTIC SOURCED AIR WESTWARD DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
30S. WINDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAYTIME

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVEWAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES. PATCHY
MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT ROC THROUGH THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM W-E
TODAY...THOUGH THIS PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOWED BY DIURNAL LAKE
INDUCED CUMULUS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING. CIGS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN 4-5K FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE BUT JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 241046
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
646 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 638 AM EDT FRIDAY...JUST A ROUTINE LITTLE REFRESH TO INJECT
CURRENT OBSERVATION/RADAR TRENDS INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
FORECAST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE AGAIN BLOSSOMED ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS, JUST EAST OF BURLINGTON.
06Z NAM DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THE FLOW IS STILL MARGINALLY BLOCKED
WITH RESPECT TO THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. THAT IS PROBABLY CONTRIBUTING
TO THE FORMATION OF THESE FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS. FLOW GOES
UNBLOCKED A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. I LIKED THE 09Z HRRR DEPICTION
OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY, AND MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS TO BE SOMEWHAT IN LINE WITH THAT GUIDANCE. THUS, THE CURRENT
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END SHORTLY, THEN A BREAK,
THEN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHAT FOLLOWS ARE THE RAMBLINGS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE AT THIS EARLY HOUR.
RATHER ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW, WITH ONE
AREA OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE (AS EVIDENT WITH THE COOLER CLOUD
TOPS ON IR SATELLITE) LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOWS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATION. THIS MOISTURE IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND THE CLOUD TOPS
ARE WARMING -- A SIGNAL THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING
OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.

A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THUS IT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY, WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20MPH RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO ROUGHLY 3000-4000FT, AND WINDS UP AT
THAT LEVEL ARE JUST A TAD STRONGER, SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO
SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

OF NOTE WILL BE THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -4C, WHICH UNDER PERFECTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE CLOUDS, WE`LL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT, AND SHOULD
WORK OUT TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THUS MID/UPPER 40S IN
THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT, WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF
DESTABLIZATION THIS AFTERNOON, SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK. ELEVATION WILL CONTROL WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW.
IN GENERAL, SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 1200
FEET. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...THAT PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE...WELL,
PESKY...ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER
LOW OVER MAINE MOVING SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW ROTATES IN TO
TAKE IT`S PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ALOFT, THE NET
RESULT FOR US ON THE GROUND WILL BE CONTINUED COOL, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT. I THINK MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THANKS TO
SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW LEVEL BLOCKED FLOW WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING SATURDAY, SO
PRECIPITATION MAY REFOCUS ITSELF A BIT MORE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY, SO JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF
SNOW.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT ROTATES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
TRIED TO PAINT IN AN INCREASE OF POPS FROM NORTHERN VERMONT
INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY.
STILL DON`T THINK IT WILL BE A VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT, JUST MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (RAIN & SNOW
STILL DEPENDING ON ELEVATION).

TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EVERY SO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH
DAY AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TAKES ON MORE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOURCE, BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HUNG WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE,
SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL
INFLUENCED BY CLOSED UPPER LOW IN GULF OF MAINE SLOWLY EXITING
EAST BY MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS ANOTHER TROUGH OR CUT OFF BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE INFLUENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW DIMINISHES WITH TIME WITH BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BEING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY-MONDAY
NIGHT. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AT NIGHT.

SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING TRYING TO SQUEEZE INTO THIS UGLY FLOW
PATTERN FOR TUE-WED THEN MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF NEXT
POTENTIAL TROUGH/UPPER LOW FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL (NORMAL U50S-L60S)THROUGH MON
THEN NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK PERHAPS TURNING COOLER TOWARD END OF NEXT
WEEK. MIN TEMPERATURES LARGELY 30S-L40S WITH UPPER 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR LATER
FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WEST/NORTHWESTERLY HAS LEAD TO
TERRAIN-DRIVEN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV AND
WESTERN SLOPES JUST E OF BTV BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE BY
MORNING. NOT MUCH IMPACT EXPECTED AT BTV/PBG/MSS EXCEPT FOR A
POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER...WITH VFR IN THE FORECAST. MPV/SLK WILL SEE
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY. RUT EXPECTED TO
SEE SOME LOWER CEILINGS (MVFR) AND A FEW SHOWERS NEARBY. LOWER
CEILINGS/SHOWERS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND LIFT ON FRIDAY WITH ALL
SITES VFR BY 16Z. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY RETURN...MAINLY
ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFT 21Z FRI. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED
TO BE OUT OF THE WEST FROM 5-15 KNOTS...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS...MAINLY ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD -
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATED 1102 PM THURSDAY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE
BARTON RIVER NEAR COVENTRY. THE RIVER WENT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WENT UP QUICKLY...CRESTING AROUND 8.8 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SINCE THEN...THE WATER LEVEL OF THE RIVER HAS BEGUN TO
FALL...AND AT 11 PM IT WAS AT 8.4 FEET. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY THE BARTON RIVER NEAR COVENTRY IS
THE ONLY RIVER THAT WE EXPECT TO REACH FLOOD STAGE AS MOST OF THE
OTHER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
HYDROLOGY...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 241046
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
646 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 638 AM EDT FRIDAY...JUST A ROUTINE LITTLE REFRESH TO INJECT
CURRENT OBSERVATION/RADAR TRENDS INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
FORECAST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE AGAIN BLOSSOMED ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS, JUST EAST OF BURLINGTON.
06Z NAM DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THE FLOW IS STILL MARGINALLY BLOCKED
WITH RESPECT TO THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. THAT IS PROBABLY CONTRIBUTING
TO THE FORMATION OF THESE FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS. FLOW GOES
UNBLOCKED A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. I LIKED THE 09Z HRRR DEPICTION
OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY, AND MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS TO BE SOMEWHAT IN LINE WITH THAT GUIDANCE. THUS, THE CURRENT
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END SHORTLY, THEN A BREAK,
THEN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHAT FOLLOWS ARE THE RAMBLINGS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE AT THIS EARLY HOUR.
RATHER ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW, WITH ONE
AREA OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE (AS EVIDENT WITH THE COOLER CLOUD
TOPS ON IR SATELLITE) LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOWS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATION. THIS MOISTURE IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND THE CLOUD TOPS
ARE WARMING -- A SIGNAL THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING
OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.

A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THUS IT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY, WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20MPH RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO ROUGHLY 3000-4000FT, AND WINDS UP AT
THAT LEVEL ARE JUST A TAD STRONGER, SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO
SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

OF NOTE WILL BE THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -4C, WHICH UNDER PERFECTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE CLOUDS, WE`LL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT, AND SHOULD
WORK OUT TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THUS MID/UPPER 40S IN
THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT, WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF
DESTABLIZATION THIS AFTERNOON, SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK. ELEVATION WILL CONTROL WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW.
IN GENERAL, SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 1200
FEET. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...THAT PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE...WELL,
PESKY...ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER
LOW OVER MAINE MOVING SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW ROTATES IN TO
TAKE IT`S PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ALOFT, THE NET
RESULT FOR US ON THE GROUND WILL BE CONTINUED COOL, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT. I THINK MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THANKS TO
SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW LEVEL BLOCKED FLOW WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING SATURDAY, SO
PRECIPITATION MAY REFOCUS ITSELF A BIT MORE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY, SO JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF
SNOW.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT ROTATES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
TRIED TO PAINT IN AN INCREASE OF POPS FROM NORTHERN VERMONT
INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY.
STILL DON`T THINK IT WILL BE A VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT, JUST MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (RAIN & SNOW
STILL DEPENDING ON ELEVATION).

TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EVERY SO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH
DAY AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TAKES ON MORE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOURCE, BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HUNG WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE,
SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL
INFLUENCED BY CLOSED UPPER LOW IN GULF OF MAINE SLOWLY EXITING
EAST BY MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS ANOTHER TROUGH OR CUT OFF BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE INFLUENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW DIMINISHES WITH TIME WITH BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BEING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY-MONDAY
NIGHT. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AT NIGHT.

SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING TRYING TO SQUEEZE INTO THIS UGLY FLOW
PATTERN FOR TUE-WED THEN MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF NEXT
POTENTIAL TROUGH/UPPER LOW FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL (NORMAL U50S-L60S)THROUGH MON
THEN NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK PERHAPS TURNING COOLER TOWARD END OF NEXT
WEEK. MIN TEMPERATURES LARGELY 30S-L40S WITH UPPER 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR LATER
FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WEST/NORTHWESTERLY HAS LEAD TO
TERRAIN-DRIVEN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV AND
WESTERN SLOPES JUST E OF BTV BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE BY
MORNING. NOT MUCH IMPACT EXPECTED AT BTV/PBG/MSS EXCEPT FOR A
POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER...WITH VFR IN THE FORECAST. MPV/SLK WILL SEE
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY. RUT EXPECTED TO
SEE SOME LOWER CEILINGS (MVFR) AND A FEW SHOWERS NEARBY. LOWER
CEILINGS/SHOWERS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND LIFT ON FRIDAY WITH ALL
SITES VFR BY 16Z. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY RETURN...MAINLY
ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFT 21Z FRI. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED
TO BE OUT OF THE WEST FROM 5-15 KNOTS...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS...MAINLY ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD -
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATED 1102 PM THURSDAY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE
BARTON RIVER NEAR COVENTRY. THE RIVER WENT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WENT UP QUICKLY...CRESTING AROUND 8.8 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SINCE THEN...THE WATER LEVEL OF THE RIVER HAS BEGUN TO
FALL...AND AT 11 PM IT WAS AT 8.4 FEET. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY THE BARTON RIVER NEAR COVENTRY IS
THE ONLY RIVER THAT WE EXPECT TO REACH FLOOD STAGE AS MOST OF THE
OTHER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
HYDROLOGY...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241046
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
646 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 638 AM EDT FRIDAY...JUST A ROUTINE LITTLE REFRESH TO INJECT
CURRENT OBSERVATION/RADAR TRENDS INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
FORECAST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE AGAIN BLOSSOMED ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS, JUST EAST OF BURLINGTON.
06Z NAM DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THE FLOW IS STILL MARGINALLY BLOCKED
WITH RESPECT TO THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. THAT IS PROBABLY CONTRIBUTING
TO THE FORMATION OF THESE FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS. FLOW GOES
UNBLOCKED A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. I LIKED THE 09Z HRRR DEPICTION
OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY, AND MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS TO BE SOMEWHAT IN LINE WITH THAT GUIDANCE. THUS, THE CURRENT
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END SHORTLY, THEN A BREAK,
THEN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHAT FOLLOWS ARE THE RAMBLINGS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE AT THIS EARLY HOUR.
RATHER ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW, WITH ONE
AREA OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE (AS EVIDENT WITH THE COOLER CLOUD
TOPS ON IR SATELLITE) LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOWS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATION. THIS MOISTURE IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND THE CLOUD TOPS
ARE WARMING -- A SIGNAL THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING
OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.

A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THUS IT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY, WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20MPH RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO ROUGHLY 3000-4000FT, AND WINDS UP AT
THAT LEVEL ARE JUST A TAD STRONGER, SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO
SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

OF NOTE WILL BE THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -4C, WHICH UNDER PERFECTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE CLOUDS, WE`LL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT, AND SHOULD
WORK OUT TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THUS MID/UPPER 40S IN
THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT, WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF
DESTABLIZATION THIS AFTERNOON, SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK. ELEVATION WILL CONTROL WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW.
IN GENERAL, SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 1200
FEET. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...THAT PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE...WELL,
PESKY...ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER
LOW OVER MAINE MOVING SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW ROTATES IN TO
TAKE IT`S PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ALOFT, THE NET
RESULT FOR US ON THE GROUND WILL BE CONTINUED COOL, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT. I THINK MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THANKS TO
SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW LEVEL BLOCKED FLOW WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING SATURDAY, SO
PRECIPITATION MAY REFOCUS ITSELF A BIT MORE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY, SO JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF
SNOW.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT ROTATES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
TRIED TO PAINT IN AN INCREASE OF POPS FROM NORTHERN VERMONT
INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY.
STILL DON`T THINK IT WILL BE A VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT, JUST MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (RAIN & SNOW
STILL DEPENDING ON ELEVATION).

TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EVERY SO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH
DAY AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TAKES ON MORE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOURCE, BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HUNG WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE,
SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL
INFLUENCED BY CLOSED UPPER LOW IN GULF OF MAINE SLOWLY EXITING
EAST BY MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS ANOTHER TROUGH OR CUT OFF BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE INFLUENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW DIMINISHES WITH TIME WITH BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BEING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY-MONDAY
NIGHT. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AT NIGHT.

SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING TRYING TO SQUEEZE INTO THIS UGLY FLOW
PATTERN FOR TUE-WED THEN MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF NEXT
POTENTIAL TROUGH/UPPER LOW FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL (NORMAL U50S-L60S)THROUGH MON
THEN NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK PERHAPS TURNING COOLER TOWARD END OF NEXT
WEEK. MIN TEMPERATURES LARGELY 30S-L40S WITH UPPER 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR LATER
FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WEST/NORTHWESTERLY HAS LEAD TO
TERRAIN-DRIVEN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV AND
WESTERN SLOPES JUST E OF BTV BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE BY
MORNING. NOT MUCH IMPACT EXPECTED AT BTV/PBG/MSS EXCEPT FOR A
POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER...WITH VFR IN THE FORECAST. MPV/SLK WILL SEE
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY. RUT EXPECTED TO
SEE SOME LOWER CEILINGS (MVFR) AND A FEW SHOWERS NEARBY. LOWER
CEILINGS/SHOWERS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND LIFT ON FRIDAY WITH ALL
SITES VFR BY 16Z. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY RETURN...MAINLY
ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFT 21Z FRI. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED
TO BE OUT OF THE WEST FROM 5-15 KNOTS...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS...MAINLY ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD -
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATED 1102 PM THURSDAY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE
BARTON RIVER NEAR COVENTRY. THE RIVER WENT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WENT UP QUICKLY...CRESTING AROUND 8.8 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SINCE THEN...THE WATER LEVEL OF THE RIVER HAS BEGUN TO
FALL...AND AT 11 PM IT WAS AT 8.4 FEET. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY THE BARTON RIVER NEAR COVENTRY IS
THE ONLY RIVER THAT WE EXPECT TO REACH FLOOD STAGE AS MOST OF THE
OTHER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
HYDROLOGY...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBGM 241044
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY OVER
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. A BRIEF BREAK FROM WEATHER WILL
OCCUR ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 50S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND LAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING AS A FAIRLY COLD AIRMASS SITS OVER THE REGION. 700MB TEMPS
RANGE FROM -14 TO -16C. THIS AIRMASS HAVE TRIGGERED WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS. THIS UNSEASONAL COLD AIRMASS IS THE RESULT OF A
STACKED LOW THAT WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS
STACKED LOW MOVED EAST AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER MAINE... PLACING US
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS NW FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MSLP GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO REMAIN TIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND THE SFC LOW REMAINS PUT JUST EAST OF MAINE. THIS WILL
NOT HELP TEMPS RISE THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD AGAIN
TODAY... WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPR 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS IN NE PA MAY SEE TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER
50S.

CLOUDS WILL START TO BREAK APART DURING LATE EVENING AND THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER. SINCE CLEARING IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT... WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING ON SAT. FRI
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPR 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SATURDAY WILL BE QUIET AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AND THE UPPR LVL LOW DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 0 DEGREES C OVER
THE REGION AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO WESTERN PA. THIS WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST SAT AFTERNOON AND WASH IT OUT. BUT
THIS SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE UPPR LVL PATTERN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE
AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ON SAT THAN FRI. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
SEE TEMPS REACHING THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

SAT NIGHT THE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA... AND THE ATTENDANT PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR
CWA. SUNDAY THE STACKED LOW WILL RETROGRADE AND WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE
CHANGE FOR SHOWERS. 850MB TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL SUNDAY...
THUS THE HIGH TEMPS OVER THE REGION WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW A DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
WOBBLING OFF THE NE CST ON MON. NLY FLOW BHD THE FLOW WITH THE LWR
UPR HGTS WILL KEEP ISLTD TO SCT SHOWRS OVER THE FCST AREA...ESP
OVER THE NY ZONES...WITH BLO NRML DAYTIME TEMPS.

IRONICALLY...THE EURO IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AND
SHOWS SOME IMPRVMT LTR TUE INTO THU WITH WEAK SFC RDGG AND A
NARROW RDG ALOFT. GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE UPR LOW HANGING ARND AND
IN FACT CAPTURES A SRN STREAM SYSTEM LATE IN THE PD TO ENHANCE
THE UPR TROF.

MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE FCST IN THE LONG TERM LDG
TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST...NOT ALL THAT UNUSUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SO...CONTD WITH THE HPC GUID IDEA OF LOW CHANCE OR SLGT CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...ESP IN THE NRN AND ERN ZONES.
WITH THE NLY FLOW...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NRML...ESP DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z FRI UPDATE... UNRESTRICTED/VFR CONDS WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH
OF THE VALID TAF PD (THROUGH 12Z SAT). BRIEF MVFR/FUEL ALT
RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL THROUGH ABT 14Z...AS LWR CIGS/MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHWRS LINGER.

NW SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MRNG-AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING
AGN TNT (AFTER 00Z SAT).

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MON-TUE...OCNL -SHRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY NY
TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJN/MLJ



000
FXUS61 KBGM 241044
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY OVER
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. A BRIEF BREAK FROM WEATHER WILL
OCCUR ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 50S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND LAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING AS A FAIRLY COLD AIRMASS SITS OVER THE REGION. 700MB TEMPS
RANGE FROM -14 TO -16C. THIS AIRMASS HAVE TRIGGERED WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS. THIS UNSEASONAL COLD AIRMASS IS THE RESULT OF A
STACKED LOW THAT WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS
STACKED LOW MOVED EAST AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER MAINE... PLACING US
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS NW FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MSLP GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO REMAIN TIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND THE SFC LOW REMAINS PUT JUST EAST OF MAINE. THIS WILL
NOT HELP TEMPS RISE THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD AGAIN
TODAY... WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPR 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS IN NE PA MAY SEE TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER
50S.

CLOUDS WILL START TO BREAK APART DURING LATE EVENING AND THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER. SINCE CLEARING IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT... WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING ON SAT. FRI
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPR 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SATURDAY WILL BE QUIET AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AND THE UPPR LVL LOW DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 0 DEGREES C OVER
THE REGION AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO WESTERN PA. THIS WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST SAT AFTERNOON AND WASH IT OUT. BUT
THIS SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE UPPR LVL PATTERN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE
AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ON SAT THAN FRI. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
SEE TEMPS REACHING THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

SAT NIGHT THE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA... AND THE ATTENDANT PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR
CWA. SUNDAY THE STACKED LOW WILL RETROGRADE AND WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE
CHANGE FOR SHOWERS. 850MB TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL SUNDAY...
THUS THE HIGH TEMPS OVER THE REGION WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW A DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
WOBBLING OFF THE NE CST ON MON. NLY FLOW BHD THE FLOW WITH THE LWR
UPR HGTS WILL KEEP ISLTD TO SCT SHOWRS OVER THE FCST AREA...ESP
OVER THE NY ZONES...WITH BLO NRML DAYTIME TEMPS.

IRONICALLY...THE EURO IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AND
SHOWS SOME IMPRVMT LTR TUE INTO THU WITH WEAK SFC RDGG AND A
NARROW RDG ALOFT. GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE UPR LOW HANGING ARND AND
IN FACT CAPTURES A SRN STREAM SYSTEM LATE IN THE PD TO ENHANCE
THE UPR TROF.

MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE FCST IN THE LONG TERM LDG
TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST...NOT ALL THAT UNUSUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SO...CONTD WITH THE HPC GUID IDEA OF LOW CHANCE OR SLGT CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...ESP IN THE NRN AND ERN ZONES.
WITH THE NLY FLOW...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NRML...ESP DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z FRI UPDATE... UNRESTRICTED/VFR CONDS WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH
OF THE VALID TAF PD (THROUGH 12Z SAT). BRIEF MVFR/FUEL ALT
RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL THROUGH ABT 14Z...AS LWR CIGS/MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHWRS LINGER.

NW SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MRNG-AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING
AGN TNT (AFTER 00Z SAT).

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MON-TUE...OCNL -SHRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY NY
TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJN/MLJ



000
FXUS61 KBGM 241044
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY OVER
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. A BRIEF BREAK FROM WEATHER WILL
OCCUR ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 50S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND LAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING AS A FAIRLY COLD AIRMASS SITS OVER THE REGION. 700MB TEMPS
RANGE FROM -14 TO -16C. THIS AIRMASS HAVE TRIGGERED WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS. THIS UNSEASONAL COLD AIRMASS IS THE RESULT OF A
STACKED LOW THAT WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS
STACKED LOW MOVED EAST AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER MAINE... PLACING US
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS NW FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MSLP GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO REMAIN TIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND THE SFC LOW REMAINS PUT JUST EAST OF MAINE. THIS WILL
NOT HELP TEMPS RISE THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD AGAIN
TODAY... WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPR 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS IN NE PA MAY SEE TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER
50S.

CLOUDS WILL START TO BREAK APART DURING LATE EVENING AND THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER. SINCE CLEARING IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT... WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING ON SAT. FRI
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPR 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SATURDAY WILL BE QUIET AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AND THE UPPR LVL LOW DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 0 DEGREES C OVER
THE REGION AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO WESTERN PA. THIS WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST SAT AFTERNOON AND WASH IT OUT. BUT
THIS SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE UPPR LVL PATTERN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE
AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ON SAT THAN FRI. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
SEE TEMPS REACHING THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

SAT NIGHT THE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA... AND THE ATTENDANT PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR
CWA. SUNDAY THE STACKED LOW WILL RETROGRADE AND WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE
CHANGE FOR SHOWERS. 850MB TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL SUNDAY...
THUS THE HIGH TEMPS OVER THE REGION WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW A DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
WOBBLING OFF THE NE CST ON MON. NLY FLOW BHD THE FLOW WITH THE LWR
UPR HGTS WILL KEEP ISLTD TO SCT SHOWRS OVER THE FCST AREA...ESP
OVER THE NY ZONES...WITH BLO NRML DAYTIME TEMPS.

IRONICALLY...THE EURO IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AND
SHOWS SOME IMPRVMT LTR TUE INTO THU WITH WEAK SFC RDGG AND A
NARROW RDG ALOFT. GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE UPR LOW HANGING ARND AND
IN FACT CAPTURES A SRN STREAM SYSTEM LATE IN THE PD TO ENHANCE
THE UPR TROF.

MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE FCST IN THE LONG TERM LDG
TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST...NOT ALL THAT UNUSUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SO...CONTD WITH THE HPC GUID IDEA OF LOW CHANCE OR SLGT CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...ESP IN THE NRN AND ERN ZONES.
WITH THE NLY FLOW...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NRML...ESP DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z FRI UPDATE... UNRESTRICTED/VFR CONDS WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH
OF THE VALID TAF PD (THROUGH 12Z SAT). BRIEF MVFR/FUEL ALT
RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL THROUGH ABT 14Z...AS LWR CIGS/MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHWRS LINGER.

NW SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MRNG-AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING
AGN TNT (AFTER 00Z SAT).

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MON-TUE...OCNL -SHRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY NY
TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJN/MLJ



000
FXUS61 KBGM 241044
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY OVER
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. A BRIEF BREAK FROM WEATHER WILL
OCCUR ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 50S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND LAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING AS A FAIRLY COLD AIRMASS SITS OVER THE REGION. 700MB TEMPS
RANGE FROM -14 TO -16C. THIS AIRMASS HAVE TRIGGERED WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS. THIS UNSEASONAL COLD AIRMASS IS THE RESULT OF A
STACKED LOW THAT WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS
STACKED LOW MOVED EAST AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER MAINE... PLACING US
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS NW FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MSLP GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO REMAIN TIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND THE SFC LOW REMAINS PUT JUST EAST OF MAINE. THIS WILL
NOT HELP TEMPS RISE THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD AGAIN
TODAY... WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPR 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS IN NE PA MAY SEE TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER
50S.

CLOUDS WILL START TO BREAK APART DURING LATE EVENING AND THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER. SINCE CLEARING IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT... WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING ON SAT. FRI
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPR 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SATURDAY WILL BE QUIET AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AND THE UPPR LVL LOW DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 0 DEGREES C OVER
THE REGION AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO WESTERN PA. THIS WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST SAT AFTERNOON AND WASH IT OUT. BUT
THIS SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE UPPR LVL PATTERN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE
AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ON SAT THAN FRI. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
SEE TEMPS REACHING THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

SAT NIGHT THE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA... AND THE ATTENDANT PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR
CWA. SUNDAY THE STACKED LOW WILL RETROGRADE AND WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE
CHANGE FOR SHOWERS. 850MB TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL SUNDAY...
THUS THE HIGH TEMPS OVER THE REGION WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW A DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
WOBBLING OFF THE NE CST ON MON. NLY FLOW BHD THE FLOW WITH THE LWR
UPR HGTS WILL KEEP ISLTD TO SCT SHOWRS OVER THE FCST AREA...ESP
OVER THE NY ZONES...WITH BLO NRML DAYTIME TEMPS.

IRONICALLY...THE EURO IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AND
SHOWS SOME IMPRVMT LTR TUE INTO THU WITH WEAK SFC RDGG AND A
NARROW RDG ALOFT. GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE UPR LOW HANGING ARND AND
IN FACT CAPTURES A SRN STREAM SYSTEM LATE IN THE PD TO ENHANCE
THE UPR TROF.

MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE FCST IN THE LONG TERM LDG
TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST...NOT ALL THAT UNUSUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SO...CONTD WITH THE HPC GUID IDEA OF LOW CHANCE OR SLGT CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...ESP IN THE NRN AND ERN ZONES.
WITH THE NLY FLOW...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NRML...ESP DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z FRI UPDATE... UNRESTRICTED/VFR CONDS WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH
OF THE VALID TAF PD (THROUGH 12Z SAT). BRIEF MVFR/FUEL ALT
RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL THROUGH ABT 14Z...AS LWR CIGS/MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHWRS LINGER.

NW SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MRNG-AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING
AGN TNT (AFTER 00Z SAT).

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MON-TUE...OCNL -SHRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY NY
TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJN/MLJ



000
FXUS61 KBGM 241044
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY OVER
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. A BRIEF BREAK FROM WEATHER WILL
OCCUR ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 50S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND LAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING AS A FAIRLY COLD AIRMASS SITS OVER THE REGION. 700MB TEMPS
RANGE FROM -14 TO -16C. THIS AIRMASS HAVE TRIGGERED WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS. THIS UNSEASONAL COLD AIRMASS IS THE RESULT OF A
STACKED LOW THAT WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS
STACKED LOW MOVED EAST AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER MAINE... PLACING US
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS NW FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MSLP GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO REMAIN TIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND THE SFC LOW REMAINS PUT JUST EAST OF MAINE. THIS WILL
NOT HELP TEMPS RISE THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD AGAIN
TODAY... WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPR 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS IN NE PA MAY SEE TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER
50S.

CLOUDS WILL START TO BREAK APART DURING LATE EVENING AND THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER. SINCE CLEARING IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT... WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING ON SAT. FRI
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPR 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SATURDAY WILL BE QUIET AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AND THE UPPR LVL LOW DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 0 DEGREES C OVER
THE REGION AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO WESTERN PA. THIS WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST SAT AFTERNOON AND WASH IT OUT. BUT
THIS SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE UPPR LVL PATTERN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE
AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ON SAT THAN FRI. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
SEE TEMPS REACHING THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

SAT NIGHT THE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA... AND THE ATTENDANT PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR
CWA. SUNDAY THE STACKED LOW WILL RETROGRADE AND WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE
CHANGE FOR SHOWERS. 850MB TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL SUNDAY...
THUS THE HIGH TEMPS OVER THE REGION WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW A DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
WOBBLING OFF THE NE CST ON MON. NLY FLOW BHD THE FLOW WITH THE LWR
UPR HGTS WILL KEEP ISLTD TO SCT SHOWRS OVER THE FCST AREA...ESP
OVER THE NY ZONES...WITH BLO NRML DAYTIME TEMPS.

IRONICALLY...THE EURO IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AND
SHOWS SOME IMPRVMT LTR TUE INTO THU WITH WEAK SFC RDGG AND A
NARROW RDG ALOFT. GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE UPR LOW HANGING ARND AND
IN FACT CAPTURES A SRN STREAM SYSTEM LATE IN THE PD TO ENHANCE
THE UPR TROF.

MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE FCST IN THE LONG TERM LDG
TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST...NOT ALL THAT UNUSUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SO...CONTD WITH THE HPC GUID IDEA OF LOW CHANCE OR SLGT CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...ESP IN THE NRN AND ERN ZONES.
WITH THE NLY FLOW...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NRML...ESP DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z FRI UPDATE... UNRESTRICTED/VFR CONDS WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH
OF THE VALID TAF PD (THROUGH 12Z SAT). BRIEF MVFR/FUEL ALT
RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL THROUGH ABT 14Z...AS LWR CIGS/MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHWRS LINGER.

NW SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MRNG-AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING
AGN TNT (AFTER 00Z SAT).

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MON-TUE...OCNL -SHRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY NY
TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJN/MLJ



000
FXUS61 KBGM 241044
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY OVER
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. A BRIEF BREAK FROM WEATHER WILL
OCCUR ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 50S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND LAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING AS A FAIRLY COLD AIRMASS SITS OVER THE REGION. 700MB TEMPS
RANGE FROM -14 TO -16C. THIS AIRMASS HAVE TRIGGERED WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS. THIS UNSEASONAL COLD AIRMASS IS THE RESULT OF A
STACKED LOW THAT WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS
STACKED LOW MOVED EAST AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER MAINE... PLACING US
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS NW FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MSLP GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO REMAIN TIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND THE SFC LOW REMAINS PUT JUST EAST OF MAINE. THIS WILL
NOT HELP TEMPS RISE THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD AGAIN
TODAY... WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPR 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS IN NE PA MAY SEE TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER
50S.

CLOUDS WILL START TO BREAK APART DURING LATE EVENING AND THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE OVER. SINCE CLEARING IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT... WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING ON SAT. FRI
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPR 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
SATURDAY WILL BE QUIET AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AND THE UPPR LVL LOW DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 0 DEGREES C OVER
THE REGION AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO WESTERN PA. THIS WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST SAT AFTERNOON AND WASH IT OUT. BUT
THIS SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE UPPR LVL PATTERN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE
AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ON SAT THAN FRI. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
SEE TEMPS REACHING THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

SAT NIGHT THE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA... AND THE ATTENDANT PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR
CWA. SUNDAY THE STACKED LOW WILL RETROGRADE AND WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE
CHANGE FOR SHOWERS. 850MB TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL SUNDAY...
THUS THE HIGH TEMPS OVER THE REGION WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW A DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
WOBBLING OFF THE NE CST ON MON. NLY FLOW BHD THE FLOW WITH THE LWR
UPR HGTS WILL KEEP ISLTD TO SCT SHOWRS OVER THE FCST AREA...ESP
OVER THE NY ZONES...WITH BLO NRML DAYTIME TEMPS.

IRONICALLY...THE EURO IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AND
SHOWS SOME IMPRVMT LTR TUE INTO THU WITH WEAK SFC RDGG AND A
NARROW RDG ALOFT. GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE UPR LOW HANGING ARND AND
IN FACT CAPTURES A SRN STREAM SYSTEM LATE IN THE PD TO ENHANCE
THE UPR TROF.

MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE FCST IN THE LONG TERM LDG
TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST...NOT ALL THAT UNUSUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SO...CONTD WITH THE HPC GUID IDEA OF LOW CHANCE OR SLGT CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...ESP IN THE NRN AND ERN ZONES.
WITH THE NLY FLOW...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NRML...ESP DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z FRI UPDATE... UNRESTRICTED/VFR CONDS WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH
OF THE VALID TAF PD (THROUGH 12Z SAT). BRIEF MVFR/FUEL ALT
RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL THROUGH ABT 14Z...AS LWR CIGS/MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHWRS LINGER.

NW SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MRNG-AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING
AGN TNT (AFTER 00Z SAT).

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MON-TUE...OCNL -SHRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY NY
TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJN/MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBUF 241036
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
636 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR MAINE. SATELLITE SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE
TAPPING INTO SOME MOISTURE OFF OF GEORGIAN BAY. THIS IS CAPTURED BY
MOST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/WRF/ARW)...AND SHOULD ENHANCE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MID-MORNING.
RADAR SHOWS THIS FOCUSING ON OSWEGO COUNTY...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF THE TUG HILL. MEANWHILE TO THE
WEST OF THIS IR SATELLITE SHOWS DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
FLURRIES SHOULD TAPER OFF WEST OF ROCHESTER WHERE THIS DRIER AIR
WILL RESULT IN A PARTIAL CLEARING. WINDS/CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S THROUGH MID-MORNING.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES EVEN IN THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT OF THE
DISTURBANCE LATE THIS MORNING. PARTIAL MORNING SUNSHINE IS LIKELY TO
FILL IN WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIER LOW-MID
LEVEL AIR FINALLY WINS OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW.

MOST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM YESTERDAY...AND THIS TREND IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE. BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING
HILLS WHERE THERE STILL MAY BE A SNOW PACK. THIS SHOULD OUTWEIGH THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A NARROW SWATH OF DRIER AIR PROMOTES
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LURKING
NEARBY...TO OUR EAST UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...AND TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MIDWEST WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESIDE. THOUGH OUR AIRMASS SATURDAY IS
ARRIVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AMPLE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTH OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
LIFT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE GREATER IN NUMBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETURNS BACK
TO THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER (LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW) REGION-WIDE.

AS THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS MODIFIES OVER TIME...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRINGS ATLANTIC SOURCED AIR WESTWARD DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
30S. WINDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAYTIME

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVEWAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES. EXPECT
LINGERING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO ERODE FROM THE WEST
THROUGH MID-MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
PROBABLY FILL IN TO SOME EXTENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN MOST AREAS BY THIS EVENING.
CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY RUN 4-5K FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IS AT
ART...WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE BUT JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 241036
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
636 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR MAINE. SATELLITE SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE
TAPPING INTO SOME MOISTURE OFF OF GEORGIAN BAY. THIS IS CAPTURED BY
MOST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/WRF/ARW)...AND SHOULD ENHANCE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MID-MORNING.
RADAR SHOWS THIS FOCUSING ON OSWEGO COUNTY...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF THE TUG HILL. MEANWHILE TO THE
WEST OF THIS IR SATELLITE SHOWS DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
FLURRIES SHOULD TAPER OFF WEST OF ROCHESTER WHERE THIS DRIER AIR
WILL RESULT IN A PARTIAL CLEARING. WINDS/CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S THROUGH MID-MORNING.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES EVEN IN THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT OF THE
DISTURBANCE LATE THIS MORNING. PARTIAL MORNING SUNSHINE IS LIKELY TO
FILL IN WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIER LOW-MID
LEVEL AIR FINALLY WINS OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW.

MOST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM YESTERDAY...AND THIS TREND IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE. BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING
HILLS WHERE THERE STILL MAY BE A SNOW PACK. THIS SHOULD OUTWEIGH THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A NARROW SWATH OF DRIER AIR PROMOTES
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LURKING
NEARBY...TO OUR EAST UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...AND TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MIDWEST WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESIDE. THOUGH OUR AIRMASS SATURDAY IS
ARRIVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AMPLE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTH OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
LIFT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE GREATER IN NUMBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETURNS BACK
TO THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER (LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW) REGION-WIDE.

AS THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS MODIFIES OVER TIME...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRINGS ATLANTIC SOURCED AIR WESTWARD DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
30S. WINDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAYTIME

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVEWAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES. EXPECT
LINGERING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO ERODE FROM THE WEST
THROUGH MID-MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
PROBABLY FILL IN TO SOME EXTENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN MOST AREAS BY THIS EVENING.
CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY RUN 4-5K FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IS AT
ART...WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE BUT JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 241036
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
636 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR MAINE. SATELLITE SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE
TAPPING INTO SOME MOISTURE OFF OF GEORGIAN BAY. THIS IS CAPTURED BY
MOST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/WRF/ARW)...AND SHOULD ENHANCE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MID-MORNING.
RADAR SHOWS THIS FOCUSING ON OSWEGO COUNTY...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF THE TUG HILL. MEANWHILE TO THE
WEST OF THIS IR SATELLITE SHOWS DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
FLURRIES SHOULD TAPER OFF WEST OF ROCHESTER WHERE THIS DRIER AIR
WILL RESULT IN A PARTIAL CLEARING. WINDS/CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S THROUGH MID-MORNING.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES EVEN IN THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT OF THE
DISTURBANCE LATE THIS MORNING. PARTIAL MORNING SUNSHINE IS LIKELY TO
FILL IN WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIER LOW-MID
LEVEL AIR FINALLY WINS OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW.

MOST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM YESTERDAY...AND THIS TREND IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE. BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING
HILLS WHERE THERE STILL MAY BE A SNOW PACK. THIS SHOULD OUTWEIGH THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A NARROW SWATH OF DRIER AIR PROMOTES
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LURKING
NEARBY...TO OUR EAST UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...AND TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MIDWEST WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESIDE. THOUGH OUR AIRMASS SATURDAY IS
ARRIVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AMPLE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTH OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
LIFT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE GREATER IN NUMBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETURNS BACK
TO THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER (LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW) REGION-WIDE.

AS THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS MODIFIES OVER TIME...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRINGS ATLANTIC SOURCED AIR WESTWARD DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
30S. WINDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAYTIME

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVEWAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES. EXPECT
LINGERING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO ERODE FROM THE WEST
THROUGH MID-MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
PROBABLY FILL IN TO SOME EXTENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN MOST AREAS BY THIS EVENING.
CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY RUN 4-5K FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IS AT
ART...WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE BUT JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 241036
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
636 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR MAINE. SATELLITE SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE
TAPPING INTO SOME MOISTURE OFF OF GEORGIAN BAY. THIS IS CAPTURED BY
MOST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/WRF/ARW)...AND SHOULD ENHANCE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MID-MORNING.
RADAR SHOWS THIS FOCUSING ON OSWEGO COUNTY...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF THE TUG HILL. MEANWHILE TO THE
WEST OF THIS IR SATELLITE SHOWS DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
FLURRIES SHOULD TAPER OFF WEST OF ROCHESTER WHERE THIS DRIER AIR
WILL RESULT IN A PARTIAL CLEARING. WINDS/CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S THROUGH MID-MORNING.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES EVEN IN THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT OF THE
DISTURBANCE LATE THIS MORNING. PARTIAL MORNING SUNSHINE IS LIKELY TO
FILL IN WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIER LOW-MID
LEVEL AIR FINALLY WINS OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW.

MOST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM YESTERDAY...AND THIS TREND IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE. BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING
HILLS WHERE THERE STILL MAY BE A SNOW PACK. THIS SHOULD OUTWEIGH THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A NARROW SWATH OF DRIER AIR PROMOTES
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LURKING
NEARBY...TO OUR EAST UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...AND TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MIDWEST WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESIDE. THOUGH OUR AIRMASS SATURDAY IS
ARRIVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AMPLE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTH OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
LIFT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE GREATER IN NUMBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETURNS BACK
TO THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER (LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW) REGION-WIDE.

AS THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS MODIFIES OVER TIME...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRINGS ATLANTIC SOURCED AIR WESTWARD DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
30S. WINDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAYTIME

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVEWAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES. EXPECT
LINGERING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO ERODE FROM THE WEST
THROUGH MID-MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
PROBABLY FILL IN TO SOME EXTENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN MOST AREAS BY THIS EVENING.
CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY RUN 4-5K FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IS AT
ART...WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE BUT JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 241034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
634 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK
TO END THE WEEK...AND START THE NEW WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. REGIONAL RADARS STILL
SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ONGOING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL STILL BE BLUSTERY...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
THURSDAY...AND WITH LESS OVERALL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...AS HEIGHTS
RISE A BIT FROM THE VERY LOW LEVELS OF YESTERDAY WHEN A STRONG
VORT MAX PASSED BY. A FEW BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
VALLEYS...MAINLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED AND CLOUDS TEND TO FILL BACK IN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND SNOW/GRAUPEL AND
PERHAPS RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN VALLEY AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
ALBANY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
THURSDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH MAX TEMPS
OF 45-50 EXPECTED IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
CATSKILLS/ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID 30S.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...WITH SOME
GUSTS REACHING 30-35 MPH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES.

TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENG. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PVS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE RGN FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GRTLKS
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FCA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WVS WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIR TRRN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FCST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TWRD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VLY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DM CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
RGN. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE HPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF RGN GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TWRD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER CAA IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH HPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FCST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD ENDING 12Z/SAT. PLENTY OF CLOUDS...MAINLY IN VFR
RANGE...WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSF...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ANY
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED THAN THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY PASSING SNOW SHOWERS COULD EASILY DROP VSBYS INTO
THE MVFR/IFR RANGE.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12-15 KTS THIS
MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL THEN
DECREASE SLIGHTLY SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY AT 8-12 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

...RH VALUES FALL TO 25-35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY
AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KALY 241034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
634 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK
TO END THE WEEK...AND START THE NEW WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. REGIONAL RADARS STILL
SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ONGOING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL STILL BE BLUSTERY...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
THURSDAY...AND WITH LESS OVERALL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...AS HEIGHTS
RISE A BIT FROM THE VERY LOW LEVELS OF YESTERDAY WHEN A STRONG
VORT MAX PASSED BY. A FEW BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
VALLEYS...MAINLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED AND CLOUDS TEND TO FILL BACK IN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND SNOW/GRAUPEL AND
PERHAPS RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN VALLEY AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
ALBANY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
THURSDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH MAX TEMPS
OF 45-50 EXPECTED IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
CATSKILLS/ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID 30S.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...WITH SOME
GUSTS REACHING 30-35 MPH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES.

TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENG. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PVS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE RGN FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GRTLKS
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FCA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WVS WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIR TRRN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FCST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TWRD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VLY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DM CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
RGN. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE HPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF RGN GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TWRD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER CAA IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH HPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FCST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD ENDING 12Z/SAT. PLENTY OF CLOUDS...MAINLY IN VFR
RANGE...WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSF...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ANY
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED THAN THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY PASSING SNOW SHOWERS COULD EASILY DROP VSBYS INTO
THE MVFR/IFR RANGE.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12-15 KTS THIS
MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL THEN
DECREASE SLIGHTLY SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY AT 8-12 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

...RH VALUES FALL TO 25-35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY
AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241027
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
627 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST UPDATED TO CANCEL THE FREEZE WRNG FOR THIS MRNG AND ADJUST
HOURLY TEMPS SLIGHTLY UPWARDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW
REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER WITH LESS CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RECORD
LOWS WILL MAY BE SET...SEE CLIMATE SECTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AND A GUSTY NW FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS FRI EVENING.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS
AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE FREQUENT GUSTY
WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON
AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. WITH ALL CRITERIA CLOSE TO BEING MET WILL ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936...36
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956...34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919...37
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971...39
KENNEDY NY *37/1971...37
ISLIP NY 36/2012...31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 241027
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
627 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST UPDATED TO CANCEL THE FREEZE WRNG FOR THIS MRNG AND ADJUST
HOURLY TEMPS SLIGHTLY UPWARDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW
REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER WITH LESS CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RECORD
LOWS WILL MAY BE SET...SEE CLIMATE SECTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AND A GUSTY NW FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS FRI EVENING.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS
AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE FREQUENT GUSTY
WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON
AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. WITH ALL CRITERIA CLOSE TO BEING MET WILL ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936...36
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956...34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919...37
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971...39
KENNEDY NY *37/1971...37
ISLIP NY 36/2012...31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 240916
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
516 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW
REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER WITH LESS CLOUD COVER.

LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO CLOSE
TO FREEZING AND THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RECORD
LOWS WILL MAY BE SET...SEE CLIMATE SECTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AND A GUSTY NW FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS FRI EVENING.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS
AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE FREQUENT GUSTY
WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON
AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. WITH ALL CRITERIA CLOSE TO BEING MET WILL ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936...36
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956...34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919...37
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971...39
KENNEDY NY *37/1971...37
ISLIP NY 36/2012...31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-079-
     081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
CLIMATE...MET



000
FXUS61 KOKX 240855
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
455 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW
REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER WITH LESS CLOUD COVER.

LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO CLOSE
TO FREEZING AND THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY WITH MORE
SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AND A GUSTY NW FLOW.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS FRI EVENING.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS
AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE FREQUENT GUSTY
WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON
AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. WITH ALL CRITERIA CLOSE TO BEING MET WILL ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-079-
     081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 240855
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
455 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW
REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER WITH LESS CLOUD COVER.

LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO CLOSE
TO FREEZING AND THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY WITH MORE
SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AND A GUSTY NW FLOW.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS FRI EVENING.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS
AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE FREQUENT GUSTY
WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON
AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. WITH ALL CRITERIA CLOSE TO BEING MET WILL ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-079-
     081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 240855
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
455 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW
REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER WITH LESS CLOUD COVER.

LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO CLOSE
TO FREEZING AND THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY WITH MORE
SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AND A GUSTY NW FLOW.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK 20 TO 40 DEGREES THIS AFT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC TROF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS FRI EVENING.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS
AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE FREQUENT GUSTY
WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON
AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. WITH ALL CRITERIA CLOSE TO BEING MET WILL ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-079-
     081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET



000
FXUS61 KOKX 240821
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
421 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW
REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER WITH LESS CLOUD COVER.

LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO CLOSE
TO FREEZING AND THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY WITH MORE
SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE TAF
PD.

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCU. GUSTY W-NW
FLOW .

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS FRI EVENING.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS
AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE FREQUENT GUSTY
WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON
AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. WITH ALL CRITERIA CLOSE TO BEING MET WILL ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-079-
     081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/MET
FIRE WEATHER...MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET



000
FXUS61 KOKX 240821
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
421 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW
REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER WITH LESS CLOUD COVER.

LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO CLOSE
TO FREEZING AND THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY WITH MORE
SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE TAF
PD.

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCU. GUSTY W-NW
FLOW .

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS FRI EVENING.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS
AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE FREQUENT GUSTY
WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON
AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. WITH ALL CRITERIA CLOSE TO BEING MET WILL ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-079-
     081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/MET
FIRE WEATHER...MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 240821
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
421 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW
REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SLOWLY TO THE WEST WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER WITH LESS CLOUD COVER.

LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO CLOSE
TO FREEZING AND THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SLOWLY FILL AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. WITH A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
METROPOLITAN NEW YORK. SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY WITH MORE
SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LARGE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A STRONG SHRTWV IS
PROGGED TO DROP THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...ON SUN. THIS
COULD BRING SOME ISOLD SHWRS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER
UPR ENERGY INTO THE REGION MON. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS THE MAIN
UPR LOW CENTER DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS A RESULT PROVIDES
BETTER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW KEPT POPS CAPPED AT ISOLD. IN
ADDITION...THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLN COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN
MON NGT DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER COLUMN. RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE AND
WED...PRODUCING A WARMUP PARTICULARLY WRN ZONES. A SLOW MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR PCPN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW AS THESE SYS TEND TO BE A BIT SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE TAF
PD.

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCU. GUSTY W-NW
FLOW .

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS FRI EVENING.
.MON-TUE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT TO LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 KT AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS
AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THE FREQUENT GUSTY
WIND UP TO 30 KT AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON ALL THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH 2 AM EDT SATURDAY AND ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
600 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THE ADVISORY MA NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SUN AND MON. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS
MON NGT AND TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE ATLC...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ERN OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PROGGED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS WED
AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON
AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY IS HELPING KEEP FORECAST 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAMPER ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. WITH ALL CRITERIA CLOSE TO BEING MET WILL ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070-078>081.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-079-
     081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/MET
FIRE WEATHER...MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET




000
FXUS61 KBTV 240757
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
357 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE BEEN ADVERTISING THE LAST FEW DAYS.
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. FOLLOWED A MIX
OF THE HI-RES MODELS (NAM, LOCAL 4KM & 12KM WRF RUNS, HRRR) FOR
THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS.

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE AT THIS EARLY HOUR.
RATHER ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW, WITH ONE
AREA OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE (AS EVIDENT WITH THE COOLER CLOUD
TOPS ON IR SATELLITE) LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOWS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATION. THIS MOISTURE IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND THE CLOUD TOPS
ARE WARMING -- A SIGNAL THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING
OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.

A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THUS IT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY, WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20MPH RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO ROUGHLY 3000-4000FT, AND WINDS UP AT
THAT LEVEL ARE JUST A TAD STRONGER, SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO
SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

OF NOTE WILL BE THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -4C, WHICH UNDER PERFECTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE CLOUDS, WE`LL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT, AND SHOULD
WORK OUT TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THUS MID/UPPER 40S IN
THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT, WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF
DESTABLIZATION THIS AFTERNOON, SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK. ELEVATION WILL CONTROL WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW.
IN GENERAL, SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 1200
FEET. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...THAT PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE...WELL,
PESKY...ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER
LOW OVER MAINE MOVING SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW ROTATES IN TO
TAKE IT`S PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ALOFT, THE NET
RESULT FOR US ON THE GROUND WILL BE CONTINUED COOL, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT. I THINK MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THANKS TO
SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW LEVEL BLOCKED FLOW WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING SATURDAY, SO
PRECIPITATION MAY REFOCUS ITSELF A BIT MORE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY, SO JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF
SNOW.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT ROTATES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
TRIED TO PAINT IN AN INCREASE OF POPS FROM NORTHERN VERMONT
INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY.
STILL DON`T THINK IT WILL BE A VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT, JUST MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (RAIN & SNOW
STILL DEPENDING ON ELEVATION).

TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EVERY SO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH
DAY AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TAKES ON MORE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOURCE, BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HUNG WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE,
SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL
INFLUENCED BY CLOSED UPPER LOW IN GULF OF MAINE SLOWLY EXITING
EAST BY MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS ANOTHER TROUGH OR CUT OFF BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE INFLUENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW DIMINISHES WITH TIME WITH BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BEING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY-MONDAY
NIGHT. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AT NIGHT.

SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING TRYING TO SQUEEZE INTO THIS UGLY FLOW
PATTERN FOR TUE-WED THEN MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF NEXT
POTENTIAL TROUGH/UPPER LOW FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL (NORMAL U50S-L60S)THROUGH MON
THEN NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK PERHAPS TURNING COOLER TOWARD END OF NEXT
WEEK. MIN TEMPERATURES LARGELY 30S-L40S WITH UPPER 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR LATER
FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WEST/NORTHWESTERLY HAS LEAD TO
TERRAIN-DRIVEN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV AND
WESTERN SLOPES JUST E OF BTV BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE BY
MORNING. NOT MUCH IMPACT EXPECTED AT BTV/PBG/MSS EXCEPT FOR A
POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER...WITH VFR IN THE FORECAST. MPV/SLK WILL SEE
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY. RUT EXPECTED TO
SEE SOME LOWER CEILINGS (MVFR) AND A FEW SHOWERS NEARBY. LOWER
CEILINGS/SHOWERS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND LIFT ON FRIDAY WITH ALL
SITES VFR BY 16Z. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY RETURN...MAINLY
ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFT 21Z FRI. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED
TO BE OUT OF THE WEST FROM 5-15 KNOTS...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS...MAINLY ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD -
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATED 1102 PM THURSDAY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE
BARTON RIVER NEAR COVENTRY. THE RIVER WENT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WENT UP QUICKLY...CRESTING AROUND 8.8 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SINCE THEN...THE WATER LEVEL OF THE RIVER HAS BEGUN TO
FALL...AND AT 11 PM IT WAS AT 8.4 FEET. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY THE BARTON RIVER NEAR COVENTRY IS
THE ONLY RIVER THAT WE EXPECT TO REACH FLOOD STAGE AS MOST OF THE
OTHER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
HYDROLOGY...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 240757
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
357 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE BEEN ADVERTISING THE LAST FEW DAYS.
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. FOLLOWED A MIX
OF THE HI-RES MODELS (NAM, LOCAL 4KM & 12KM WRF RUNS, HRRR) FOR
THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS.

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE AT THIS EARLY HOUR.
RATHER ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW, WITH ONE
AREA OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE (AS EVIDENT WITH THE COOLER CLOUD
TOPS ON IR SATELLITE) LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOWS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATION. THIS MOISTURE IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND THE CLOUD TOPS
ARE WARMING -- A SIGNAL THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING
OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.

A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THUS IT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY, WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20MPH RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO ROUGHLY 3000-4000FT, AND WINDS UP AT
THAT LEVEL ARE JUST A TAD STRONGER, SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO
SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

OF NOTE WILL BE THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -4C, WHICH UNDER PERFECTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE CLOUDS, WE`LL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT, AND SHOULD
WORK OUT TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THUS MID/UPPER 40S IN
THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT, WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF
DESTABLIZATION THIS AFTERNOON, SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK. ELEVATION WILL CONTROL WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW.
IN GENERAL, SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 1200
FEET. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...THAT PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE...WELL,
PESKY...ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER
LOW OVER MAINE MOVING SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW ROTATES IN TO
TAKE IT`S PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ALOFT, THE NET
RESULT FOR US ON THE GROUND WILL BE CONTINUED COOL, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT. I THINK MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THANKS TO
SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW LEVEL BLOCKED FLOW WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING SATURDAY, SO
PRECIPITATION MAY REFOCUS ITSELF A BIT MORE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY, SO JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF
SNOW.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT ROTATES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
TRIED TO PAINT IN AN INCREASE OF POPS FROM NORTHERN VERMONT
INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY.
STILL DON`T THINK IT WILL BE A VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT, JUST MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (RAIN & SNOW
STILL DEPENDING ON ELEVATION).

TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EVERY SO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH
DAY AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TAKES ON MORE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOURCE, BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HUNG WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE,
SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL
INFLUENCED BY CLOSED UPPER LOW IN GULF OF MAINE SLOWLY EXITING
EAST BY MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS ANOTHER TROUGH OR CUT OFF BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE INFLUENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW DIMINISHES WITH TIME WITH BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BEING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY-MONDAY
NIGHT. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AT NIGHT.

SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING TRYING TO SQUEEZE INTO THIS UGLY FLOW
PATTERN FOR TUE-WED THEN MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF NEXT
POTENTIAL TROUGH/UPPER LOW FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL (NORMAL U50S-L60S)THROUGH MON
THEN NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK PERHAPS TURNING COOLER TOWARD END OF NEXT
WEEK. MIN TEMPERATURES LARGELY 30S-L40S WITH UPPER 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR LATER
FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WEST/NORTHWESTERLY HAS LEAD TO
TERRAIN-DRIVEN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV AND
WESTERN SLOPES JUST E OF BTV BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE BY
MORNING. NOT MUCH IMPACT EXPECTED AT BTV/PBG/MSS EXCEPT FOR A
POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER...WITH VFR IN THE FORECAST. MPV/SLK WILL SEE
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY. RUT EXPECTED TO
SEE SOME LOWER CEILINGS (MVFR) AND A FEW SHOWERS NEARBY. LOWER
CEILINGS/SHOWERS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND LIFT ON FRIDAY WITH ALL
SITES VFR BY 16Z. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY RETURN...MAINLY
ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFT 21Z FRI. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED
TO BE OUT OF THE WEST FROM 5-15 KNOTS...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS...MAINLY ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD -
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATED 1102 PM THURSDAY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE
BARTON RIVER NEAR COVENTRY. THE RIVER WENT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WENT UP QUICKLY...CRESTING AROUND 8.8 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SINCE THEN...THE WATER LEVEL OF THE RIVER HAS BEGUN TO
FALL...AND AT 11 PM IT WAS AT 8.4 FEET. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY THE BARTON RIVER NEAR COVENTRY IS
THE ONLY RIVER THAT WE EXPECT TO REACH FLOOD STAGE AS MOST OF THE
OTHER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
HYDROLOGY...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 240757
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
357 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE BEEN ADVERTISING THE LAST FEW DAYS.
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. FOLLOWED A MIX
OF THE HI-RES MODELS (NAM, LOCAL 4KM & 12KM WRF RUNS, HRRR) FOR
THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS.

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE AT THIS EARLY HOUR.
RATHER ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW, WITH ONE
AREA OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE (AS EVIDENT WITH THE COOLER CLOUD
TOPS ON IR SATELLITE) LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOWS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATION. THIS MOISTURE IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND THE CLOUD TOPS
ARE WARMING -- A SIGNAL THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING
OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.

A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THUS IT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY, WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20MPH RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO ROUGHLY 3000-4000FT, AND WINDS UP AT
THAT LEVEL ARE JUST A TAD STRONGER, SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO
SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

OF NOTE WILL BE THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -4C, WHICH UNDER PERFECTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE CLOUDS, WE`LL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT, AND SHOULD
WORK OUT TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THUS MID/UPPER 40S IN
THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT, WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF
DESTABLIZATION THIS AFTERNOON, SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK. ELEVATION WILL CONTROL WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW.
IN GENERAL, SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 1200
FEET. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...THAT PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE...WELL,
PESKY...ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER
LOW OVER MAINE MOVING SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW ROTATES IN TO
TAKE IT`S PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ALOFT, THE NET
RESULT FOR US ON THE GROUND WILL BE CONTINUED COOL, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT. I THINK MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THANKS TO
SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW LEVEL BLOCKED FLOW WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING SATURDAY, SO
PRECIPITATION MAY REFOCUS ITSELF A BIT MORE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY, SO JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF
SNOW.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT ROTATES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
TRIED TO PAINT IN AN INCREASE OF POPS FROM NORTHERN VERMONT
INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY.
STILL DON`T THINK IT WILL BE A VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT, JUST MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (RAIN & SNOW
STILL DEPENDING ON ELEVATION).

TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EVERY SO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH
DAY AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TAKES ON MORE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOURCE, BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HUNG WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE,
SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL
INFLUENCED BY CLOSED UPPER LOW IN GULF OF MAINE SLOWLY EXITING
EAST BY MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS ANOTHER TROUGH OR CUT OFF BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE INFLUENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW DIMINISHES WITH TIME WITH BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BEING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY-MONDAY
NIGHT. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AT NIGHT.

SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING TRYING TO SQUEEZE INTO THIS UGLY FLOW
PATTERN FOR TUE-WED THEN MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF NEXT
POTENTIAL TROUGH/UPPER LOW FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL (NORMAL U50S-L60S)THROUGH MON
THEN NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK PERHAPS TURNING COOLER TOWARD END OF NEXT
WEEK. MIN TEMPERATURES LARGELY 30S-L40S WITH UPPER 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR LATER
FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WEST/NORTHWESTERLY HAS LEAD TO
TERRAIN-DRIVEN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV AND
WESTERN SLOPES JUST E OF BTV BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE BY
MORNING. NOT MUCH IMPACT EXPECTED AT BTV/PBG/MSS EXCEPT FOR A
POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER...WITH VFR IN THE FORECAST. MPV/SLK WILL SEE
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY. RUT EXPECTED TO
SEE SOME LOWER CEILINGS (MVFR) AND A FEW SHOWERS NEARBY. LOWER
CEILINGS/SHOWERS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND LIFT ON FRIDAY WITH ALL
SITES VFR BY 16Z. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY RETURN...MAINLY
ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFT 21Z FRI. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED
TO BE OUT OF THE WEST FROM 5-15 KNOTS...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS...MAINLY ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD -
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATED 1102 PM THURSDAY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE
BARTON RIVER NEAR COVENTRY. THE RIVER WENT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WENT UP QUICKLY...CRESTING AROUND 8.8 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SINCE THEN...THE WATER LEVEL OF THE RIVER HAS BEGUN TO
FALL...AND AT 11 PM IT WAS AT 8.4 FEET. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY THE BARTON RIVER NEAR COVENTRY IS
THE ONLY RIVER THAT WE EXPECT TO REACH FLOOD STAGE AS MOST OF THE
OTHER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
HYDROLOGY...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 240757
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
357 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE BEEN ADVERTISING THE LAST FEW DAYS.
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. FOLLOWED A MIX
OF THE HI-RES MODELS (NAM, LOCAL 4KM & 12KM WRF RUNS, HRRR) FOR
THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS.

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE AT THIS EARLY HOUR.
RATHER ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW, WITH ONE
AREA OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE (AS EVIDENT WITH THE COOLER CLOUD
TOPS ON IR SATELLITE) LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOWS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATION. THIS MOISTURE IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND THE CLOUD TOPS
ARE WARMING -- A SIGNAL THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING
OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.

A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THUS IT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY, WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20MPH RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO ROUGHLY 3000-4000FT, AND WINDS UP AT
THAT LEVEL ARE JUST A TAD STRONGER, SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO
SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

OF NOTE WILL BE THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -4C, WHICH UNDER PERFECTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE CLOUDS, WE`LL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT, AND SHOULD
WORK OUT TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THUS MID/UPPER 40S IN
THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT, WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF
DESTABLIZATION THIS AFTERNOON, SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK. ELEVATION WILL CONTROL WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW.
IN GENERAL, SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 1200
FEET. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...THAT PESKY UPPER LOW WILL BE...WELL,
PESKY...ALL THE WAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THE CURRENT UPPER
LOW OVER MAINE MOVING SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW ROTATES IN TO
TAKE IT`S PLACE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING ALOFT, THE NET
RESULT FOR US ON THE GROUND WILL BE CONTINUED COOL, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT. I THINK MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THANKS TO
SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LOW LEVEL BLOCKED FLOW WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING SATURDAY, SO
PRECIPITATION MAY REFOCUS ITSELF A BIT MORE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY, SO JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF A DUSTING TO 1/2" OF
SNOW.

SHOULD BE ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT ROTATES IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
TRIED TO PAINT IN AN INCREASE OF POPS FROM NORTHERN VERMONT
INITIALLY AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY.
STILL DON`T THINK IT WILL BE A VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT, JUST MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (RAIN & SNOW
STILL DEPENDING ON ELEVATION).

TEMPERATURES DO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL EVERY SO SLOWLY MODERATE EACH
DAY AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TAKES ON MORE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOURCE, BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HUNG WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE,
SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. COLDER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL
INFLUENCED BY CLOSED UPPER LOW IN GULF OF MAINE SLOWLY EXITING
EAST BY MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS ANOTHER TROUGH OR CUT OFF BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE INFLUENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW DIMINISHES WITH TIME WITH BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BEING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY-MONDAY
NIGHT. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AT NIGHT.

SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING TRYING TO SQUEEZE INTO THIS UGLY FLOW
PATTERN FOR TUE-WED THEN MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF NEXT
POTENTIAL TROUGH/UPPER LOW FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL (NORMAL U50S-L60S)THROUGH MON
THEN NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK PERHAPS TURNING COOLER TOWARD END OF NEXT
WEEK. MIN TEMPERATURES LARGELY 30S-L40S WITH UPPER 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR LATER
FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WEST/NORTHWESTERLY HAS LEAD TO
TERRAIN-DRIVEN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV AND
WESTERN SLOPES JUST E OF BTV BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE BY
MORNING. NOT MUCH IMPACT EXPECTED AT BTV/PBG/MSS EXCEPT FOR A
POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER...WITH VFR IN THE FORECAST. MPV/SLK WILL SEE
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY. RUT EXPECTED TO
SEE SOME LOWER CEILINGS (MVFR) AND A FEW SHOWERS NEARBY. LOWER
CEILINGS/SHOWERS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND LIFT ON FRIDAY WITH ALL
SITES VFR BY 16Z. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY RETURN...MAINLY
ACROSS MOUNTAINS AFT 21Z FRI. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED
TO BE OUT OF THE WEST FROM 5-15 KNOTS...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS...MAINLY ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD -
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UPDATED 1102 PM THURSDAY...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE
BARTON RIVER NEAR COVENTRY. THE RIVER WENT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WENT UP QUICKLY...CRESTING AROUND 8.8 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SINCE THEN...THE WATER LEVEL OF THE RIVER HAS BEGUN TO
FALL...AND AT 11 PM IT WAS AT 8.4 FEET. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY THE BARTON RIVER NEAR COVENTRY IS
THE ONLY RIVER THAT WE EXPECT TO REACH FLOOD STAGE AS MOST OF THE
OTHER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
HYDROLOGY...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KALY 240756
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
356 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK
TO END THE WEEK...AND START THE NEW WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. REGIONAL RADARS STILL
SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ONGOING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND PORTIONS OF THE TACONICS.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL STILL BE BLUSTERY...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
THURSDAY...AND WITH LESS OVERALL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...AS HEIGHTS
RISE A BIT FROM THE VERY LOW LEVELS OF YESTERDAY AS A STRONG VORT
MAX PASSED BY. SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
VALLEYS...MAINLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED AND CLOUDS TEND TO FILL BACK IN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND SNOW/GRAUPEL AND
PERHAPS RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN VALLEY AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
ALBANY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
THURSDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH MAX TEMPS
OF 45-50 EXPECTED IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
CATSKILLS/ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID 30S.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...WITH SOME
GUSTS REACHING 30-35 MPH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES.

TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENG. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PVS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE RGN FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GRTLKS
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FCA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WVS WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIR TRRN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FCST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TWRD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VLY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DM CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
RGN. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE HPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF RGN GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TWRD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER CAA IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH HPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FCST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD ENDING 06Z/SAT. PLENTY OF CLOUDS...MAINLY IN VFR RANGE...WILL
BE PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING...ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KPSF...ESPECIALLY THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED
THAN THURSDAY.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 8-13 KTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 12-15 KTS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS OF 20-
25 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE SLIGHTLY SEVERAL HOURS
AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY AT 8-12 KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

...RH VALUES FALL TO 25-35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY
AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 240756
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
356 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE STORM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CIRCULATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK
TO END THE WEEK...AND START THE NEW WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. REGIONAL RADARS STILL
SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ONGOING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND PORTIONS OF THE TACONICS.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL STILL BE BLUSTERY...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
THURSDAY...AND WITH LESS OVERALL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...AS HEIGHTS
RISE A BIT FROM THE VERY LOW LEVELS OF YESTERDAY AS A STRONG VORT
MAX PASSED BY. SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
VALLEYS...MAINLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED AND CLOUDS TEND TO FILL BACK IN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND SNOW/GRAUPEL AND
PERHAPS RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN VALLEY AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
ALBANY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
THURSDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH MAX TEMPS
OF 45-50 EXPECTED IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
CATSKILLS/ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID 30S.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...WITH SOME
GUSTS REACHING 30-35 MPH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES.

TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT COULD
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING MANY VALLEY AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT
CLOSER TO 30 IN VALLEY AREAS. SHOULD WINDS DECREASE EVEN
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS COULD BE COLDER.

SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...AND
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TEMPS
SHOULD RESPOND...CLIMBING INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN WARMER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR...AS MIXING DEPTHS COULD BECOME QUITE DEEP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...PERHAPS REACHING AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW ROTATES ABOUT BUT REMAINS IN THE
MARITIMES...GULF OF MAINE AND OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS FEATURE THIS LIFTING OUT...WHILE THE GEM KEEPS
THE CUT OFF CENTER AND SFC LOW WELL WEST OVER NEW ENG. WILL
CONSIDER THE GEM THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME GIVEN PVS RUNS AND
ENSEMBLES.

THE 5000HPA SHORT WV PARADE AROUND 500HPA CUTOFF WILL
PERSIST...BOTH THOSE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN SYSTEM AND OTHERS
DROPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE RGN FM THE NW...INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARD SFC LOW MOVING E TO OUR
SOUTH WILL DEEPEN INTO AN INTENSE OCEANIC STORM WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT COMBINED W/LARGE SFC HIGH OVER GRTLKS
REESTABLISHES A BRISK WIND GRADIENT OVER FCA.

INCRG CLOUDS AND -SHRA/SN WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORT WVS WITH
GREATEST THREAT LATE SUN INTO MON. THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
PERIOD OFFER THE BEST CHC FOR PS SKIES...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, TUES TEMPS WILL KICK UP A NOTCH...WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT THE HIR TRRN.

WILL LARGELY POPULATE WITH GFSMOS...AND BLEND INTO CURRENT
FCST...UNLESS ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY DEPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HPC SEEMS HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH AN ECMWF (LIGHT) SOLUTION THIS
AM. IN THIS SCENARIO RIDGING AT 500HPA BUILDS EAST...WITH BULK OF
SHORT WV ENERGY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IN A SE STATES CUT OFF...AND
ANOTHER 500HPA CUTOFF ARRIVING TWRD END OF PERIOD FM OTTAWA VLY.
THE GFS IS ONLY SIMILAR WITH THIS TIL THU...THEN MUCH MORE GREATLY
INTENSIFIES THE N BRANCH CUTOFF OVER NE USA...WITH JANUARY LIKE
BOMB ON THE SEABOARD...AS 520 DM CUT OFF PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
RGN. TO PUT IT MILDLY THIS LOOKS A BIT EXTREME AND OVERDONE.

IN THE HPC/ECMWF SOLUTION LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO NE
WED...COASTAL STORM PASSES JUST S OF RGN GLANCING SE AREAS WITH
CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THU AND SFC HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF FRI. THE
ECMWF HAS A DEEPER COASTAL STORM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TWRD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT STRONGER CAA IN ITS WAKE.

FOR NOW WILL POPULATE WITH HPC AND RETAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT
FCST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD ENDING 06Z/SAT. PLENTY OF CLOUDS...MAINLY IN VFR RANGE...WILL
BE PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING...ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KPSF...ESPECIALLY THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED
THAN THURSDAY.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 8-13 KTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 12-15 KTS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS OF 20-
25 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE SLIGHTLY SEVERAL HOURS
AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY AT 8-12 KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...WIND GUSTS UP OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY TODAY...

...RH VALUES FALL TO 25-35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN VALLEY
AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
OCCURRED BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY...AND RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RH SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP INTO
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS SAT MAY
STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL
SERVICE AREA (HSA).

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KBTV 240754
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
354 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE BEEN ADVERTISING THE LAST FEW DAYS.
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. FOLLOWED A MIX
OF THE HI-RES MODELS (NAM, LOCAL 4KM & 12KM WRF RUNS, HRRR) FOR
THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS.

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE AT THIS EARLY HOUR.
RATHER ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW, WITH ONE
AREA OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE (AS EVIDENT WITH THE COOLER CLOUD
TOPS ON IR SATELLITE) LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SNOWS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATION. THIS MOISTURE IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND THE CLOUD TOPS
ARE WARMING -- A SIGNAL THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING
OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.

A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THUS IT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY, WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20MPH RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO ROUGHLY 3000-4000FT, AND WINDS UP AT
THAT LEVEL ARE JUST A TAD STRONGER, SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO
SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

OF NOTE WILL BE THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -4C, WHICH UNDER PERFECTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE CLOUDS, WE`LL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT, AND SHOULD
WORK OUT TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THUS MID/UPPER 40S IN
THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT, WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF
DESTABLIZATION THIS AFTERNOON, SO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VER