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000
FXUS61 KALY 011224
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
824 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 830 AM EDT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AS HEAVY RAIN FROM OVERNIGHT HAS NOW GENERALLY
MOVED EAST OF THE REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND. A NARROW STRIPE OF ONE
TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN EXTENDED FROM THE CATSKILLS...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES...AND INTO SOUTHERN VT. THIS RAINFALL
CAUSED SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS AND
SOME MINOR STREET FLOODING/PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. WITH THE
RAINFALL NOW EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE WATER NOW RECEDING AND NO
IMMINENT THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM...HAVE CANCELLED
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH A FEW ROADS MAY STILL BE
CLOSED IN ULSTER COUNTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL WATER FULLY
RECEDES.

SOME RAIN IS STILL EXITING SOUTHERN VT..BUT SHOULD BE EAST
SHORTLY. THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY WITH JUST SOME SCT ACTIVITY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM THIS AFTN....AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS
AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW
MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR. FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY
OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER
CENTRAL/NE PA COULD MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND
ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST
THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO
SOME ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
OCCURS. SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1
OVER OUR AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 011224
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
824 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 830 AM EDT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AS HEAVY RAIN FROM OVERNIGHT HAS NOW GENERALLY
MOVED EAST OF THE REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND. A NARROW STRIPE OF ONE
TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN EXTENDED FROM THE CATSKILLS...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES...AND INTO SOUTHERN VT. THIS RAINFALL
CAUSED SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS AND
SOME MINOR STREET FLOODING/PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. WITH THE
RAINFALL NOW EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE WATER NOW RECEDING AND NO
IMMINENT THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM...HAVE CANCELLED
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH A FEW ROADS MAY STILL BE
CLOSED IN ULSTER COUNTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL WATER FULLY
RECEDES.

SOME RAIN IS STILL EXITING SOUTHERN VT..BUT SHOULD BE EAST
SHORTLY. THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY WITH JUST SOME SCT ACTIVITY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM THIS AFTN....AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS
AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW
MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR. FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY
OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER
CENTRAL/NE PA COULD MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND
ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST
THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO
SOME ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
OCCURS. SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1
OVER OUR AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 011207
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
807 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT/WEAK WAVE...HAS PUSHED NE OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THIS HAS TAKEN THE QLCS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AS
WELL.

IN ITS WAKE...BEST LLJ/MOISTURE AXIS IS SLIDING EAST OF THE
REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN TERMS OF AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION BEFORE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
ISO-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...AND ALONG ANY THERMAL OR
LINGERING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN VICINITY OF NYC/NJ METRO AND
POINTS N AND NE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IF CONVECTION CAN
DEVELOP...IT HAS POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE.

THEREAFTER...SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION LATE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE AXIS IS ALREADY EAST OF THE REGION. COVERAGE SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE LAGGING COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH...WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND A
DRYING AIRMASS.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN SHORTWAVE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...BUT
A WEAKER BACKSIDE SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH AROUND 00Z.

THEREAFTER...THE REGION WILL BE ON THE SE FRINGE OF MEAN
TROUGHING THU AND FRI AS UPPER LOW SPINS NE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
EASTERN CANADA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT
IN THE EVENING WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHORTWAVE
FORCING...BUT THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER IN THE EVENING IN
WAKE OF SHORTWAVE.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THU AND FRI AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE
IS A LOW PROB OF A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE TRI-STATE THU NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...AND WAVE
TO THE SOUTH MAY MAKE A CLOSE RUN.

TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION THIS EVE.

POTENTIAL FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THRU 15-18Z AS
THE UPR SYS TRACKS THRU. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SHWRS AND/OR TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVE RIGHT WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS HOWEVER ATTM. IN
THE EXTENDED TAFS...VFR.

GENERALLY SSW FLOW THIS MRNG...THEN SW FLOW AFT 15Z. GUST
POTENTIAL GREATEST AFT 17Z. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TNGT BEHIND THE
FRONT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR NO PCPN TO DEVELOP THIS
MRNG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR NO PCPN TO DEVELOP THIS
MRNG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR NO PCPN TO DEVELOP THIS MRNG.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.KTEB
FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR NO PCPN TO DEVELOP THIS
MRNG.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR NO PCPN TO DEVELOP THIS
MRNG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...VFR WITH LGT W FLOW. SEA BREEZES LIKELY.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS CLOSE
ENOUGH...MVFR OR LWR POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY N.
.SUN...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO MARGINAL SCA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE SUB SCA WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF ANY TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY
AND WESTERN LI SOUND...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO 6
     AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...FIG/NV
HYDROLOGY...FIG/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011207
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
807 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT/WEAK WAVE...HAS PUSHED NE OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THIS HAS TAKEN THE QLCS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AS
WELL.

IN ITS WAKE...BEST LLJ/MOISTURE AXIS IS SLIDING EAST OF THE
REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN TERMS OF AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION BEFORE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
ISO-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...AND ALONG ANY THERMAL OR
LINGERING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN VICINITY OF NYC/NJ METRO AND
POINTS N AND NE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IF CONVECTION CAN
DEVELOP...IT HAS POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE.

THEREAFTER...SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION LATE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE AXIS IS ALREADY EAST OF THE REGION. COVERAGE SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE LAGGING COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH...WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND A
DRYING AIRMASS.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN SHORTWAVE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...BUT
A WEAKER BACKSIDE SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH AROUND 00Z.

THEREAFTER...THE REGION WILL BE ON THE SE FRINGE OF MEAN
TROUGHING THU AND FRI AS UPPER LOW SPINS NE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
EASTERN CANADA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT
IN THE EVENING WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHORTWAVE
FORCING...BUT THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER IN THE EVENING IN
WAKE OF SHORTWAVE.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THU AND FRI AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE
IS A LOW PROB OF A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE TRI-STATE THU NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...AND WAVE
TO THE SOUTH MAY MAKE A CLOSE RUN.

TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION THIS EVE.

POTENTIAL FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THRU 15-18Z AS
THE UPR SYS TRACKS THRU. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SHWRS AND/OR TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVE RIGHT WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS HOWEVER ATTM. IN
THE EXTENDED TAFS...VFR.

GENERALLY SSW FLOW THIS MRNG...THEN SW FLOW AFT 15Z. GUST
POTENTIAL GREATEST AFT 17Z. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TNGT BEHIND THE
FRONT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR NO PCPN TO DEVELOP THIS
MRNG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR NO PCPN TO DEVELOP THIS
MRNG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR NO PCPN TO DEVELOP THIS MRNG.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.KTEB
FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR NO PCPN TO DEVELOP THIS
MRNG.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR NO PCPN TO DEVELOP THIS
MRNG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...VFR WITH LGT W FLOW. SEA BREEZES LIKELY.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS CLOSE
ENOUGH...MVFR OR LWR POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY N.
.SUN...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO MARGINAL SCA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE SUB SCA WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF ANY TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY
AND WESTERN LI SOUND...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO 6
     AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...FIG/NV
HYDROLOGY...FIG/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 011207
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
807 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT/WEAK WAVE...HAS PUSHED NE OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THIS HAS TAKEN THE QLCS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AS
WELL.

IN ITS WAKE...BEST LLJ/MOISTURE AXIS IS SLIDING EAST OF THE
REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN TERMS OF AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION BEFORE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
ISO-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...AND ALONG ANY THERMAL OR
LINGERING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN VICINITY OF NYC/NJ METRO AND
POINTS N AND NE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IF CONVECTION CAN
DEVELOP...IT HAS POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE.

THEREAFTER...SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION LATE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE AXIS IS ALREADY EAST OF THE REGION. COVERAGE SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE LAGGING COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH...WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND A
DRYING AIRMASS.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN SHORTWAVE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...BUT
A WEAKER BACKSIDE SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH AROUND 00Z.

THEREAFTER...THE REGION WILL BE ON THE SE FRINGE OF MEAN
TROUGHING THU AND FRI AS UPPER LOW SPINS NE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
EASTERN CANADA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT
IN THE EVENING WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHORTWAVE
FORCING...BUT THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER IN THE EVENING IN
WAKE OF SHORTWAVE.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THU AND FRI AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE
IS A LOW PROB OF A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE TRI-STATE THU NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...AND WAVE
TO THE SOUTH MAY MAKE A CLOSE RUN.

TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION THIS EVE.

POTENTIAL FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THRU 15-18Z AS
THE UPR SYS TRACKS THRU. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SHWRS AND/OR TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVE RIGHT WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS HOWEVER ATTM. IN
THE EXTENDED TAFS...VFR.

GENERALLY SSW FLOW THIS MRNG...THEN SW FLOW AFT 15Z. GUST
POTENTIAL GREATEST AFT 17Z. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TNGT BEHIND THE
FRONT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR NO PCPN TO DEVELOP THIS
MRNG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR NO PCPN TO DEVELOP THIS
MRNG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR NO PCPN TO DEVELOP THIS MRNG.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.KTEB
FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR NO PCPN TO DEVELOP THIS
MRNG.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR NO PCPN TO DEVELOP THIS
MRNG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...VFR WITH LGT W FLOW. SEA BREEZES LIKELY.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS CLOSE
ENOUGH...MVFR OR LWR POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY N.
.SUN...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO MARGINAL SCA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE SUB SCA WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF ANY TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY
AND WESTERN LI SOUND...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO 6
     AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...FIG/NV
HYDROLOGY...FIG/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 011207
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
807 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT/WEAK WAVE...HAS PUSHED NE OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THIS HAS TAKEN THE QLCS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AS
WELL.

IN ITS WAKE...BEST LLJ/MOISTURE AXIS IS SLIDING EAST OF THE
REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN TERMS OF AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION BEFORE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
ISO-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...AND ALONG ANY THERMAL OR
LINGERING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN VICINITY OF NYC/NJ METRO AND
POINTS N AND NE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IF CONVECTION CAN
DEVELOP...IT HAS POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE.

THEREAFTER...SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION LATE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE AXIS IS ALREADY EAST OF THE REGION. COVERAGE SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE LAGGING COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH...WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND A
DRYING AIRMASS.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN SHORTWAVE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...BUT
A WEAKER BACKSIDE SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH AROUND 00Z.

THEREAFTER...THE REGION WILL BE ON THE SE FRINGE OF MEAN
TROUGHING THU AND FRI AS UPPER LOW SPINS NE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
EASTERN CANADA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT
IN THE EVENING WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHORTWAVE
FORCING...BUT THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER IN THE EVENING IN
WAKE OF SHORTWAVE.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THU AND FRI AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE
IS A LOW PROB OF A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE TRI-STATE THU NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...AND WAVE
TO THE SOUTH MAY MAKE A CLOSE RUN.

TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION THIS EVE.

POTENTIAL FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THRU 15-18Z AS
THE UPR SYS TRACKS THRU. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SHWRS AND/OR TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVE RIGHT WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS HOWEVER ATTM. IN
THE EXTENDED TAFS...VFR.

GENERALLY SSW FLOW THIS MRNG...THEN SW FLOW AFT 15Z. GUST
POTENTIAL GREATEST AFT 17Z. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TNGT BEHIND THE
FRONT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR NO PCPN TO DEVELOP THIS
MRNG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR NO PCPN TO DEVELOP THIS
MRNG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR NO PCPN TO DEVELOP THIS MRNG.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.KTEB
FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR NO PCPN TO DEVELOP THIS
MRNG.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR NO PCPN TO DEVELOP THIS
MRNG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...VFR WITH LGT W FLOW. SEA BREEZES LIKELY.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS CLOSE
ENOUGH...MVFR OR LWR POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY N.
.SUN...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO MARGINAL SCA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE SUB SCA WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF ANY TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY
AND WESTERN LI SOUND...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO 6
     AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...FIG/NV
HYDROLOGY...FIG/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 011155
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
755 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 6
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON TODAY. SPECIFICALLY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
INCLUDES GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. FOR THIS MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING. PWATS ACRS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY IN THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE.

THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE MORNING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS.
SOME BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
15-25 KT RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING
INITIALLY AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500
J/KG BASED ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH
ROUGHLY SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEPT MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IF THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 011155
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
755 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 6
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON TODAY. SPECIFICALLY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
INCLUDES GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. FOR THIS MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING. PWATS ACRS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY IN THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE.

THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE MORNING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS.
SOME BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
15-25 KT RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING
INITIALLY AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500
J/KG BASED ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH
ROUGHLY SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEPT MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IF THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 011155
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
755 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 6
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON TODAY. SPECIFICALLY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
INCLUDES GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. FOR THIS MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING. PWATS ACRS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY IN THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE.

THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE MORNING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS.
SOME BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
15-25 KT RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING
INITIALLY AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500
J/KG BASED ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH
ROUGHLY SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEPT MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IF THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011155
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
755 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 6
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON TODAY. SPECIFICALLY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
INCLUDES GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. FOR THIS MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING. PWATS ACRS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY IN THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE.

THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE MORNING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS.
SOME BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
15-25 KT RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING
INITIALLY AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500
J/KG BASED ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH
ROUGHLY SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEPT MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IF THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBUF 011153
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
753 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MUGGY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR ONE MORE
DAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LIKELY TODAY THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL LOWER THE HUMIDITY LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH AIR TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY
MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH.

REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY TWO CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THE FIRST IS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL VORT
MAX...ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO AND SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS CANADA. THE SECOND AREA...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
BLOSSOMING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A STORM SYSTEM HAS NOW EXPANDED
ACROSS MUCH OF WNY...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY. WITHIN
BOTH AREAS OF SHOWERS...BRIEF BUT HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN ARE
OCCURRING.

FOR TODAY EXPECT CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS
UPSTREAM VORT MAXES PASS THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. IN ADDITION TO THE LIFT ALOFT GENERATED BY THE EMBEDDED
VORT MAXES...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY. THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES RISING TO 300 T0 400 J/KG
TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY NOR
DECENT LAPSE RATES/COOLING ALOFT TO PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
AREA LIKELIEST TO HAVE A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES REGION WHERE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST.

A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL FORM LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THIS BREEZE MEETING THE NEARING COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY PRODUCE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER.
ALL ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

AS THIS FRONT PASSES TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
DEWPOINTS MAY LINGER WITHIN THE MID 50S BEFORE FALLING LATE. SOME
PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE...WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HILLS OF SW NYS. A RATHER CLOUDY START TO THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD
WILL HAVE SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR ON A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
REACHES OUR REGION. ANY CLEARING WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND AROUND LAKE ONTARIO...WITH STRATUS CLOUDS
HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE INLAND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR TWO DAYS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW THE MID 70S. TONIGHT AIR TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DESPITE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF NORTH AMERICA...MAINLY PROBLEM-FREE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

THIS TIME FRAME WILL OPEN WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PROVINCE OF QUEBEC. AS THIS FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM
EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE DEEPENING DRY AIR AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE ONLY POSSIBLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION. WHILE H5 TEMPS IN THE MINUS
TEENS C WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
MORE THAN 7 DEG C DURING THE AFTERNOON...FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH DRYING TO ONLY ALLOW FOR SOME ENHANCED MIDDAY/AFTERNOON CU.
WILL MAINTAIN SLGT CHC POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SRN
TIER...BUT THIS IS PROBABLY BEING OVERLY PESSIMISTIC. MEANWHILE...
H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 10C SUPPORTING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
70S.

THE CENTER OF THE WEAK...BUT EXPANSIVE GREAT LAKES SFC HIGH WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WITHIN A
FRESH DRY AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE A COOL NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO TEMPS UNDER STARLIT SKIES WILL DROP INTO
THE LOWER 50S AWAY FROM THE LAKES. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED SRN
TIER VALLEYS AND SITES EAST OF THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY COULD EVEN
BRIEFLY VISIT THE UPPER 40S. THESE READINGS WILL BE SOME 10 DEG F
BELOW TYPICAL EARLY JULY VALUES.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER SUN FILLED DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW COULD ADVECT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SRN TIER TO ENCOURAGE INCREASING CUMULUS CLOUDS FOR
THAT AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...A VERY NICE DAY
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS NOW BEING ADVERTISED BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
PACKAGES TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE COURSE OF
FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INSERT SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AFTER JUST ONE
PESSIMISTIC MODEL RUN. WILL RAISE POPS TO SLGT CHC FOR NOW AND
INCREASE CLOUDS FOR THAT AREA WHILE LEAVING FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE.

FOR SATURDAY...A BROAD BASED TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS HAS BEEN THE CONCERN FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THIS FEATURE COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE SHOWERS...
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THOUGH WOULD BE A FAR CRY FROM THE WASHOUT THAT WE EXPERIENCED THE
PREVIOUS SATURDAY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY EVENING IN TIME FOR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...AS RIDGING OVER
WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN MOVES WILL BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY MONDAY WE SHOULD START
TO SEE READINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 12Z SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WERE PASSING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK AND ARE BRINGING
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...IN BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD THIS MORNING IMPACTING AIRFIELDS MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK BEHIND THIS
INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTION...WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING SOME
TO MVFR/VFR BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
POSSIBLE...THIS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH BETTER DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY EVEN TRIGGER A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND WILL INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE
KROC/KJHW/KART TAFS. THERE MAY EVEN BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
FORMING ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY...THIS IN THE VICINITY OF KIAG
AIRFIELD...AND WILL ALSO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH A VCTS.

AS THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL END SHOWER CHANCES AND
ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUDS. HOWEVER SOME IFR LOW STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE TO HANG OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING THE KJHW
AIRFIELD OVERNIGHT.

A SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 15 KNOTS NE OF
LAKE ERIE BEHIND A LAKE ERIE BREEZE. WINDS WILL VEER TO WESTERLY AND
RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY...WITH A
SOUTHWEST WIND BLOWING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKE WATERS. AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT SOME OF THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20
KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE TODAY AND PRODUCE WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR LAKE ERIE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE UNUSUAL EARLY SUMMER +PNA PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING IS SIMILAR TO THE PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGE OF THE
PAST COUPLE WINTERS. IN FACT...THE CURRENT 6 TO 8 MONTH PATTERN IS
PART OF ONE OF THE STRONGEST +PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST FIVE YEARS.
THE CURRENT LONG TERM PATTERN HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION FOR FIVE OF THE PAST PAST SIX
MONTHS...INCLUDING THE JUST ENDED MONTH OF JUNE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
CLIMATE...RSH



000
FXUS61 KBUF 011153
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
753 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MUGGY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR ONE MORE
DAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LIKELY TODAY THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL LOWER THE HUMIDITY LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH AIR TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY
MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH.

REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY TWO CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THE FIRST IS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL VORT
MAX...ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO AND SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS CANADA. THE SECOND AREA...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
BLOSSOMING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A STORM SYSTEM HAS NOW EXPANDED
ACROSS MUCH OF WNY...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY. WITHIN
BOTH AREAS OF SHOWERS...BRIEF BUT HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN ARE
OCCURRING.

FOR TODAY EXPECT CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS
UPSTREAM VORT MAXES PASS THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. IN ADDITION TO THE LIFT ALOFT GENERATED BY THE EMBEDDED
VORT MAXES...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY. THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES RISING TO 300 T0 400 J/KG
TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY NOR
DECENT LAPSE RATES/COOLING ALOFT TO PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
AREA LIKELIEST TO HAVE A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES REGION WHERE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST.

A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL FORM LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THIS BREEZE MEETING THE NEARING COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY PRODUCE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER.
ALL ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

AS THIS FRONT PASSES TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
DEWPOINTS MAY LINGER WITHIN THE MID 50S BEFORE FALLING LATE. SOME
PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE...WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HILLS OF SW NYS. A RATHER CLOUDY START TO THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD
WILL HAVE SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR ON A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
REACHES OUR REGION. ANY CLEARING WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND AROUND LAKE ONTARIO...WITH STRATUS CLOUDS
HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE INLAND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR TWO DAYS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW THE MID 70S. TONIGHT AIR TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DESPITE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF NORTH AMERICA...MAINLY PROBLEM-FREE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

THIS TIME FRAME WILL OPEN WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PROVINCE OF QUEBEC. AS THIS FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM
EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE DEEPENING DRY AIR AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE ONLY POSSIBLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION. WHILE H5 TEMPS IN THE MINUS
TEENS C WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
MORE THAN 7 DEG C DURING THE AFTERNOON...FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH DRYING TO ONLY ALLOW FOR SOME ENHANCED MIDDAY/AFTERNOON CU.
WILL MAINTAIN SLGT CHC POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SRN
TIER...BUT THIS IS PROBABLY BEING OVERLY PESSIMISTIC. MEANWHILE...
H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 10C SUPPORTING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
70S.

THE CENTER OF THE WEAK...BUT EXPANSIVE GREAT LAKES SFC HIGH WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WITHIN A
FRESH DRY AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE A COOL NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO TEMPS UNDER STARLIT SKIES WILL DROP INTO
THE LOWER 50S AWAY FROM THE LAKES. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED SRN
TIER VALLEYS AND SITES EAST OF THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY COULD EVEN
BRIEFLY VISIT THE UPPER 40S. THESE READINGS WILL BE SOME 10 DEG F
BELOW TYPICAL EARLY JULY VALUES.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER SUN FILLED DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW COULD ADVECT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SRN TIER TO ENCOURAGE INCREASING CUMULUS CLOUDS FOR
THAT AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...A VERY NICE DAY
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS NOW BEING ADVERTISED BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
PACKAGES TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE COURSE OF
FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INSERT SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AFTER JUST ONE
PESSIMISTIC MODEL RUN. WILL RAISE POPS TO SLGT CHC FOR NOW AND
INCREASE CLOUDS FOR THAT AREA WHILE LEAVING FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE.

FOR SATURDAY...A BROAD BASED TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS HAS BEEN THE CONCERN FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THIS FEATURE COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE SHOWERS...
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THOUGH WOULD BE A FAR CRY FROM THE WASHOUT THAT WE EXPERIENCED THE
PREVIOUS SATURDAY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY EVENING IN TIME FOR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...AS RIDGING OVER
WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN MOVES WILL BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY MONDAY WE SHOULD START
TO SEE READINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 12Z SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WERE PASSING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK AND ARE BRINGING
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...IN BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD THIS MORNING IMPACTING AIRFIELDS MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK BEHIND THIS
INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTION...WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING SOME
TO MVFR/VFR BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
POSSIBLE...THIS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH BETTER DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY EVEN TRIGGER A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND WILL INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE
KROC/KJHW/KART TAFS. THERE MAY EVEN BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
FORMING ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY...THIS IN THE VICINITY OF KIAG
AIRFIELD...AND WILL ALSO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH A VCTS.

AS THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL END SHOWER CHANCES AND
ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUDS. HOWEVER SOME IFR LOW STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE TO HANG OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING THE KJHW
AIRFIELD OVERNIGHT.

A SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 15 KNOTS NE OF
LAKE ERIE BEHIND A LAKE ERIE BREEZE. WINDS WILL VEER TO WESTERLY AND
RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY...WITH A
SOUTHWEST WIND BLOWING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKE WATERS. AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT SOME OF THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20
KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE TODAY AND PRODUCE WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR LAKE ERIE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE UNUSUAL EARLY SUMMER +PNA PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING IS SIMILAR TO THE PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGE OF THE
PAST COUPLE WINTERS. IN FACT...THE CURRENT 6 TO 8 MONTH PATTERN IS
PART OF ONE OF THE STRONGEST +PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST FIVE YEARS.
THE CURRENT LONG TERM PATTERN HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION FOR FIVE OF THE PAST PAST SIX
MONTHS...INCLUDING THE JUST ENDED MONTH OF JUNE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
CLIMATE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 011153
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
753 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MUGGY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR ONE MORE
DAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LIKELY TODAY THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL LOWER THE HUMIDITY LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH AIR TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY
MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH.

REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY TWO CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THE FIRST IS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL VORT
MAX...ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO AND SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS CANADA. THE SECOND AREA...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
BLOSSOMING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A STORM SYSTEM HAS NOW EXPANDED
ACROSS MUCH OF WNY...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY. WITHIN
BOTH AREAS OF SHOWERS...BRIEF BUT HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN ARE
OCCURRING.

FOR TODAY EXPECT CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS
UPSTREAM VORT MAXES PASS THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. IN ADDITION TO THE LIFT ALOFT GENERATED BY THE EMBEDDED
VORT MAXES...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY. THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES RISING TO 300 T0 400 J/KG
TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY NOR
DECENT LAPSE RATES/COOLING ALOFT TO PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
AREA LIKELIEST TO HAVE A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES REGION WHERE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST.

A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL FORM LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THIS BREEZE MEETING THE NEARING COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY PRODUCE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER.
ALL ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

AS THIS FRONT PASSES TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
DEWPOINTS MAY LINGER WITHIN THE MID 50S BEFORE FALLING LATE. SOME
PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE...WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HILLS OF SW NYS. A RATHER CLOUDY START TO THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD
WILL HAVE SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR ON A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
REACHES OUR REGION. ANY CLEARING WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND AROUND LAKE ONTARIO...WITH STRATUS CLOUDS
HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE INLAND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR TWO DAYS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW THE MID 70S. TONIGHT AIR TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DESPITE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF NORTH AMERICA...MAINLY PROBLEM-FREE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

THIS TIME FRAME WILL OPEN WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PROVINCE OF QUEBEC. AS THIS FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM
EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE DEEPENING DRY AIR AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE ONLY POSSIBLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION. WHILE H5 TEMPS IN THE MINUS
TEENS C WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
MORE THAN 7 DEG C DURING THE AFTERNOON...FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH DRYING TO ONLY ALLOW FOR SOME ENHANCED MIDDAY/AFTERNOON CU.
WILL MAINTAIN SLGT CHC POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SRN
TIER...BUT THIS IS PROBABLY BEING OVERLY PESSIMISTIC. MEANWHILE...
H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 10C SUPPORTING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
70S.

THE CENTER OF THE WEAK...BUT EXPANSIVE GREAT LAKES SFC HIGH WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WITHIN A
FRESH DRY AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE A COOL NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO TEMPS UNDER STARLIT SKIES WILL DROP INTO
THE LOWER 50S AWAY FROM THE LAKES. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED SRN
TIER VALLEYS AND SITES EAST OF THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY COULD EVEN
BRIEFLY VISIT THE UPPER 40S. THESE READINGS WILL BE SOME 10 DEG F
BELOW TYPICAL EARLY JULY VALUES.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER SUN FILLED DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW COULD ADVECT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SRN TIER TO ENCOURAGE INCREASING CUMULUS CLOUDS FOR
THAT AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...A VERY NICE DAY
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS NOW BEING ADVERTISED BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
PACKAGES TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE COURSE OF
FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INSERT SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AFTER JUST ONE
PESSIMISTIC MODEL RUN. WILL RAISE POPS TO SLGT CHC FOR NOW AND
INCREASE CLOUDS FOR THAT AREA WHILE LEAVING FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE.

FOR SATURDAY...A BROAD BASED TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS HAS BEEN THE CONCERN FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THIS FEATURE COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE SHOWERS...
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THOUGH WOULD BE A FAR CRY FROM THE WASHOUT THAT WE EXPERIENCED THE
PREVIOUS SATURDAY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY EVENING IN TIME FOR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...AS RIDGING OVER
WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN MOVES WILL BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY MONDAY WE SHOULD START
TO SEE READINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 12Z SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WERE PASSING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK AND ARE BRINGING
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...IN BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD THIS MORNING IMPACTING AIRFIELDS MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK BEHIND THIS
INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTION...WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING SOME
TO MVFR/VFR BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
POSSIBLE...THIS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH BETTER DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY EVEN TRIGGER A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND WILL INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE
KROC/KJHW/KART TAFS. THERE MAY EVEN BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
FORMING ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY...THIS IN THE VICINITY OF KIAG
AIRFIELD...AND WILL ALSO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH A VCTS.

AS THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL END SHOWER CHANCES AND
ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUDS. HOWEVER SOME IFR LOW STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE TO HANG OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING THE KJHW
AIRFIELD OVERNIGHT.

A SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 15 KNOTS NE OF
LAKE ERIE BEHIND A LAKE ERIE BREEZE. WINDS WILL VEER TO WESTERLY AND
RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY...WITH A
SOUTHWEST WIND BLOWING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKE WATERS. AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT SOME OF THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20
KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE TODAY AND PRODUCE WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR LAKE ERIE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE UNUSUAL EARLY SUMMER +PNA PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING IS SIMILAR TO THE PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGE OF THE
PAST COUPLE WINTERS. IN FACT...THE CURRENT 6 TO 8 MONTH PATTERN IS
PART OF ONE OF THE STRONGEST +PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST FIVE YEARS.
THE CURRENT LONG TERM PATTERN HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION FOR FIVE OF THE PAST PAST SIX
MONTHS...INCLUDING THE JUST ENDED MONTH OF JUNE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
CLIMATE...RSH



000
FXUS61 KBUF 011153
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
753 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MUGGY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR ONE MORE
DAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LIKELY TODAY THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL LOWER THE HUMIDITY LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH AIR TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY
MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH.

REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY TWO CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THE FIRST IS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL VORT
MAX...ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO AND SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS CANADA. THE SECOND AREA...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
BLOSSOMING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A STORM SYSTEM HAS NOW EXPANDED
ACROSS MUCH OF WNY...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY. WITHIN
BOTH AREAS OF SHOWERS...BRIEF BUT HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN ARE
OCCURRING.

FOR TODAY EXPECT CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS
UPSTREAM VORT MAXES PASS THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. IN ADDITION TO THE LIFT ALOFT GENERATED BY THE EMBEDDED
VORT MAXES...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY. THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES RISING TO 300 T0 400 J/KG
TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY NOR
DECENT LAPSE RATES/COOLING ALOFT TO PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
AREA LIKELIEST TO HAVE A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES REGION WHERE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST.

A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL FORM LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THIS BREEZE MEETING THE NEARING COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY PRODUCE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER.
ALL ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

AS THIS FRONT PASSES TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
DEWPOINTS MAY LINGER WITHIN THE MID 50S BEFORE FALLING LATE. SOME
PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE...WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HILLS OF SW NYS. A RATHER CLOUDY START TO THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD
WILL HAVE SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR ON A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
REACHES OUR REGION. ANY CLEARING WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND AROUND LAKE ONTARIO...WITH STRATUS CLOUDS
HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE INLAND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR TWO DAYS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW THE MID 70S. TONIGHT AIR TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DESPITE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF NORTH AMERICA...MAINLY PROBLEM-FREE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

THIS TIME FRAME WILL OPEN WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PROVINCE OF QUEBEC. AS THIS FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM
EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE DEEPENING DRY AIR AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE ONLY POSSIBLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION. WHILE H5 TEMPS IN THE MINUS
TEENS C WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
MORE THAN 7 DEG C DURING THE AFTERNOON...FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH DRYING TO ONLY ALLOW FOR SOME ENHANCED MIDDAY/AFTERNOON CU.
WILL MAINTAIN SLGT CHC POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SRN
TIER...BUT THIS IS PROBABLY BEING OVERLY PESSIMISTIC. MEANWHILE...
H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 10C SUPPORTING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
70S.

THE CENTER OF THE WEAK...BUT EXPANSIVE GREAT LAKES SFC HIGH WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WITHIN A
FRESH DRY AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE A COOL NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO TEMPS UNDER STARLIT SKIES WILL DROP INTO
THE LOWER 50S AWAY FROM THE LAKES. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED SRN
TIER VALLEYS AND SITES EAST OF THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY COULD EVEN
BRIEFLY VISIT THE UPPER 40S. THESE READINGS WILL BE SOME 10 DEG F
BELOW TYPICAL EARLY JULY VALUES.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER SUN FILLED DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW COULD ADVECT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SRN TIER TO ENCOURAGE INCREASING CUMULUS CLOUDS FOR
THAT AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...A VERY NICE DAY
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS NOW BEING ADVERTISED BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
PACKAGES TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE COURSE OF
FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INSERT SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AFTER JUST ONE
PESSIMISTIC MODEL RUN. WILL RAISE POPS TO SLGT CHC FOR NOW AND
INCREASE CLOUDS FOR THAT AREA WHILE LEAVING FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE.

FOR SATURDAY...A BROAD BASED TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS HAS BEEN THE CONCERN FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THIS FEATURE COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE SHOWERS...
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THOUGH WOULD BE A FAR CRY FROM THE WASHOUT THAT WE EXPERIENCED THE
PREVIOUS SATURDAY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY EVENING IN TIME FOR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...AS RIDGING OVER
WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN MOVES WILL BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY MONDAY WE SHOULD START
TO SEE READINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 12Z SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WERE PASSING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK AND ARE BRINGING
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...IN BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD THIS MORNING IMPACTING AIRFIELDS MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK BEHIND THIS
INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTION...WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING SOME
TO MVFR/VFR BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
POSSIBLE...THIS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH BETTER DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY EVEN TRIGGER A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND WILL INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE
KROC/KJHW/KART TAFS. THERE MAY EVEN BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
FORMING ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY...THIS IN THE VICINITY OF KIAG
AIRFIELD...AND WILL ALSO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH A VCTS.

AS THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL END SHOWER CHANCES AND
ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUDS. HOWEVER SOME IFR LOW STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE TO HANG OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING THE KJHW
AIRFIELD OVERNIGHT.

A SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 15 KNOTS NE OF
LAKE ERIE BEHIND A LAKE ERIE BREEZE. WINDS WILL VEER TO WESTERLY AND
RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY...WITH A
SOUTHWEST WIND BLOWING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKE WATERS. AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT SOME OF THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20
KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE TODAY AND PRODUCE WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR LAKE ERIE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE UNUSUAL EARLY SUMMER +PNA PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING IS SIMILAR TO THE PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGE OF THE
PAST COUPLE WINTERS. IN FACT...THE CURRENT 6 TO 8 MONTH PATTERN IS
PART OF ONE OF THE STRONGEST +PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST FIVE YEARS.
THE CURRENT LONG TERM PATTERN HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION FOR FIVE OF THE PAST PAST SIX
MONTHS...INCLUDING THE JUST ENDED MONTH OF JUNE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
CLIMATE...RSH



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 011147
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC TONIGHT...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 744 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EVOLUTION OF LARGE CONVECTIVE MCS
ACROSS SERN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY
FURTHER LIMIT OUT ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON. NOTING
THE 06Z NAM AND BTV-4KM HAVE LESSENED MAX CAPE VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON TO 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT WITH LOWER VALUES
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED...BUT
MESOSCALE TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING LESS POTENTIAL THREAT OF ANY SVR
ACTIVITY ACROSS VT THIS AFTN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH-
SOUTH FROM SERN ONTARIO ACROSS ERN OH/WV EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
ACQUIRE SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT TRANSLATES NEWD ACROSS NY LATE
THIS MORNING AND ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATELY STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS (BY EARLY JULY STANDARDS)...CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID-
LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
LARGE- SCALE ASCENT AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY.
IT APPEARS SHOWERS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN...BUT
PREVAILING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING INFLUENCE OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAKE FORECAST MAX SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY A
BIT UNCERTAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING NAM12/GFS/LOCALLY RUN BTV-4KM WRF INDICATE
SBCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN VT AND
PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG
ACROSS NRN NY. SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 25-30
KTS...SUGGESTING SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IF INSTABILITY CAN
MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST. WOULD ANTICIPATE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS VT...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO...WITH BEST POTENTIAL CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...BUT WILL
DEPEND ON DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS BEST MID-
LEVEL FORCING MOVES THRU CENTRAL VT THIS AFTERNOON. SPC 21Z
CALIBRATED SREF PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS SHOWS SOME LOW
POTENTIAL ACROSS VT THIS AFTN (HIGHEST 18-21Z) AND INITIAL 06Z SPC
DAY 1 OUTLOOK CARRIES 5% PROBABILITY OF SVR HAIL/WIND WITHIN 25
MILES OF A POINT. WILL CARRY MENTION OF SUB-SEVERE WIND IN THE
GRIDS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MESOSCALE TRENDS INTO THE
DAYLIGHT HRS.

HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60-65F RANGE. GRADIENT FLOW SUPPORTS SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. GUSTS 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN.

HIGHEST POP VALUES GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON (70-90%)...AND THEN
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OUT OF THE AREA. WILL SEE A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WITH A
MODEST ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT PASSING THRU 00-03Z WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE LIFTS OUT NEWD
ACROSS QUEBEC BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. 00Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM IN PREVAILING MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW REGIME...AND
SHOULD YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. IT
WILL FEEL PLEASANT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S
BY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MIXING/INSOLATIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 8-14 MPH 15-23Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +8C AND SUNSHINE SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 1000-500MB MEAN RH VALUES OF 20-30
PERCENT. ALL IN ALL A QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS CONTROLLED BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. WITH MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN WIDE TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRODNACKS AND VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO THE LOW-MID 50S
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (WARMEST NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

CONTINUED PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
MAINTENANCE OF WEAK RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT AND <30% MEAN
1000-500MB RH VALUES. 850MB TEMPS MODERATE SOME TO +10 TO +12C AND
SHOULD SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...BUT WITH CONTINUED LOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR GREATER
UNCERTAINTY ON CHCS FOR PRECIP ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS.
OTHERWISE...EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY.
HAVE CONTINUE TO MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH VERY WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND 5H VORT IN JET WINDS
ALOFT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR NORTHERN ZNS...WITH VERY MINIMAL
INSTABILITY VALUES. HAVE JUST MENTION SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER
ATTM. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MTNS ON SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON SUNDAY...WITH LATEST 00Z GFS
SHOWING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMING CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHCS WHILE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. GFS SHOWS
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH FIELDS...ALONG WITH A DEEPER TROF ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SOME LIFT AND WEAK
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP FCST DRY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY
FROM SFC HEATING AND WEAK INSTABILITY. ANY ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN BY SUNSET WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR BOTH SAT/SUN AND
LOWS IN THE 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO NEAR 60F CPV. MUCH WARMER AIR
ARRIVES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 15C BY 18Z
TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
MENTION TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE LATE TUES
INTO WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STORMS
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING IS IMPACTING SOUTHERN VT. THESE STORMS
WILL IMPACT RUTLAND AND MPV BTN 12-15Z WITH SOME LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MVFR VIS/CIGS. ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED IFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURING OVER THE
SLV...AND MAY IMPACT MSS THRU 15Z. EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR THIS
MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS BY EARLY THIS AFTN. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWN POURS...WHICH WILL REDUCE VIS
BLW 3SM AT TIMES. HAVE USED A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 16Z AND 19Z TO
COVER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTN...WITH GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF STORMS OVER OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF
SITES...BTV/PBG/RUT/MPV/SLK. SLOW CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH
PRES...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BTWN 06Z AND 12Z THURS
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011147
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC TONIGHT...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 744 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EVOLUTION OF LARGE CONVECTIVE MCS
ACROSS SERN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY
FURTHER LIMIT OUT ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON. NOTING
THE 06Z NAM AND BTV-4KM HAVE LESSENED MAX CAPE VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON TO 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT WITH LOWER VALUES
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED...BUT
MESOSCALE TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING LESS POTENTIAL THREAT OF ANY SVR
ACTIVITY ACROSS VT THIS AFTN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH-
SOUTH FROM SERN ONTARIO ACROSS ERN OH/WV EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
ACQUIRE SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT TRANSLATES NEWD ACROSS NY LATE
THIS MORNING AND ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATELY STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS (BY EARLY JULY STANDARDS)...CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID-
LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
LARGE- SCALE ASCENT AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY.
IT APPEARS SHOWERS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN...BUT
PREVAILING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING INFLUENCE OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAKE FORECAST MAX SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY A
BIT UNCERTAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING NAM12/GFS/LOCALLY RUN BTV-4KM WRF INDICATE
SBCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN VT AND
PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG
ACROSS NRN NY. SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 25-30
KTS...SUGGESTING SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IF INSTABILITY CAN
MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST. WOULD ANTICIPATE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS VT...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO...WITH BEST POTENTIAL CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...BUT WILL
DEPEND ON DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS BEST MID-
LEVEL FORCING MOVES THRU CENTRAL VT THIS AFTERNOON. SPC 21Z
CALIBRATED SREF PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS SHOWS SOME LOW
POTENTIAL ACROSS VT THIS AFTN (HIGHEST 18-21Z) AND INITIAL 06Z SPC
DAY 1 OUTLOOK CARRIES 5% PROBABILITY OF SVR HAIL/WIND WITHIN 25
MILES OF A POINT. WILL CARRY MENTION OF SUB-SEVERE WIND IN THE
GRIDS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MESOSCALE TRENDS INTO THE
DAYLIGHT HRS.

HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60-65F RANGE. GRADIENT FLOW SUPPORTS SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. GUSTS 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN.

HIGHEST POP VALUES GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON (70-90%)...AND THEN
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OUT OF THE AREA. WILL SEE A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WITH A
MODEST ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT PASSING THRU 00-03Z WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE LIFTS OUT NEWD
ACROSS QUEBEC BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. 00Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM IN PREVAILING MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW REGIME...AND
SHOULD YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. IT
WILL FEEL PLEASANT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S
BY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MIXING/INSOLATIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 8-14 MPH 15-23Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +8C AND SUNSHINE SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 1000-500MB MEAN RH VALUES OF 20-30
PERCENT. ALL IN ALL A QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS CONTROLLED BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. WITH MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN WIDE TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRODNACKS AND VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO THE LOW-MID 50S
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (WARMEST NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

CONTINUED PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
MAINTENANCE OF WEAK RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT AND <30% MEAN
1000-500MB RH VALUES. 850MB TEMPS MODERATE SOME TO +10 TO +12C AND
SHOULD SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...BUT WITH CONTINUED LOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR GREATER
UNCERTAINTY ON CHCS FOR PRECIP ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS.
OTHERWISE...EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY.
HAVE CONTINUE TO MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH VERY WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND 5H VORT IN JET WINDS
ALOFT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR NORTHERN ZNS...WITH VERY MINIMAL
INSTABILITY VALUES. HAVE JUST MENTION SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER
ATTM. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MTNS ON SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON SUNDAY...WITH LATEST 00Z GFS
SHOWING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMING CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHCS WHILE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. GFS SHOWS
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH FIELDS...ALONG WITH A DEEPER TROF ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SOME LIFT AND WEAK
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP FCST DRY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY
FROM SFC HEATING AND WEAK INSTABILITY. ANY ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN BY SUNSET WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR BOTH SAT/SUN AND
LOWS IN THE 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO NEAR 60F CPV. MUCH WARMER AIR
ARRIVES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 15C BY 18Z
TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
MENTION TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE LATE TUES
INTO WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STORMS
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING IS IMPACTING SOUTHERN VT. THESE STORMS
WILL IMPACT RUTLAND AND MPV BTN 12-15Z WITH SOME LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MVFR VIS/CIGS. ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED IFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURING OVER THE
SLV...AND MAY IMPACT MSS THRU 15Z. EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR THIS
MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS BY EARLY THIS AFTN. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWN POURS...WHICH WILL REDUCE VIS
BLW 3SM AT TIMES. HAVE USED A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 16Z AND 19Z TO
COVER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTN...WITH GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF STORMS OVER OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF
SITES...BTV/PBG/RUT/MPV/SLK. SLOW CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH
PRES...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BTWN 06Z AND 12Z THURS
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011129
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
729 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC TONIGHT...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTH-SOUTH FROM SERN ONTARIO ACROSS ERN OH/WV EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL ACQUIRE SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT TRANSLATES NEWD ACROSS NY
LATE THIS MORNING AND ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATELY
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS (BY EARLY JULY STANDARDS)...CYCLONIC FLOW AND
MID-LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT
APPEARS SHOWERS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN...BUT
PREVAILING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING INFLUENCE OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAKE FORECAST MAX SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY A
BIT UNCERTAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING NAM12/GFS/LOCALLY RUN BTV-4KM WRF INDICATE
SBCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN VT AND
PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG
ACROSS NRN NY. SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 25-30
KTS...SUGGESTING SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IF INSTABILITY CAN
MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST. WOULD ANTICIPATE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS VT...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO...WITH BEST POTENTIAL CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...BUT WILL
DEPEND ON DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS BEST MID-
LEVEL FORCING MOVES THRU CENTRAL VT THIS AFTERNOON. SPC 21Z CALIBRATED
SREF PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS SHOWS SOME LOW POTENTIAL ACROSS
VT THIS AFTN (HIGHEST 18-21Z) AND INITIAL 06Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
CARRIES 5% PROBABILITY OF SVR HAIL/WIND WITHIN 25 MILES OF A
POINT. WILL CARRY MENTION OF SUB-SEVERE WIND IN THE GRIDS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MESOSCALE TRENDS INTO THE DAYLIGHT HRS.

HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60-65F RANGE. GRADIENT FLOW SUPPORTS SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. GUSTS 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN.

HIGHEST POP VALUES GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON (70-90%)...AND THEN
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OUT OF THE AREA. WILL SEE A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WITH A
MODEST ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT PASSING THRU 00-03Z WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE LIFTS OUT NEWD
ACROSS QUEBEC BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. 00Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM IN PREVAILING MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW REGIME...AND
SHOULD YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. IT
WILL FEEL PLEASANT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S
BY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MIXING/INSOLATIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 8-14 MPH 15-23Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +8C AND SUNSHINE SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 1000-500MB MEAN RH VALUES OF 20-30
PERCENT. ALL IN ALL A QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS CONTROLLED BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. WITH MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN WIDE TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRODNACKS AND VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO THE LOW-MID 50S
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (WARMEST NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

CONTINUED PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
MAINTENANCE OF WEAK RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT AND <30% MEAN
1000-500MB RH VALUES. 850MB TEMPS MODERATE SOME TO +10 TO +12C AND
SHOULD SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...BUT WITH CONTINUED LOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR GREATER
UNCERTAINTY ON CHCS FOR PRECIP ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS.
OTHERWISE...EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY.
HAVE CONTINUE TO MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH VERY WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND 5H VORT IN JET WINDS
ALOFT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR NORTHERN ZNS...WITH VERY MINIMAL
INSTABILITY VALUES. HAVE JUST MENTION SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER
ATTM. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MTNS ON SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON SUNDAY...WITH LATEST 00Z GFS
SHOWING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMING CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHCS WHILE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. GFS SHOWS
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH FIELDS...ALONG WITH A DEEPER TROF ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SOME LIFT AND WEAK
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP FCST DRY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY
FROM SFC HEATING AND WEAK INSTABILITY. ANY ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN BY SUNSET WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR BOTH SAT/SUN AND
LOWS IN THE 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO NEAR 60F CPV. MUCH WARMER AIR
ARRIVES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 15C BY 18Z
TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
MENTION TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE LATE TUES
INTO WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STORMS
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING IS IMPACTING SOUTHERN VT. THESE STORMS
WILL IMPACT RUTLAND AND MPV BTN 12-15Z WITH SOME LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MVFR VIS/CIGS. ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED IFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURING OVER THE
SLV...AND MAY IMPACT MSS THRU 15Z. EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR THIS
MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS BY EARLY THIS AFTN. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWN POURS...WHICH WILL REDUCE VIS
BLW 3SM AT TIMES. HAVE USED A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 16Z AND 19Z TO
COVER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTN...WITH GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF STORMS OVER OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF
SITES...BTV/PBG/RUT/MPV/SLK. SLOW CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH
PRES...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BTWN 06Z AND 12Z THURS
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011129
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
729 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC TONIGHT...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTH-SOUTH FROM SERN ONTARIO ACROSS ERN OH/WV EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL ACQUIRE SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT TRANSLATES NEWD ACROSS NY
LATE THIS MORNING AND ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATELY
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS (BY EARLY JULY STANDARDS)...CYCLONIC FLOW AND
MID-LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT
APPEARS SHOWERS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN...BUT
PREVAILING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING INFLUENCE OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAKE FORECAST MAX SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY A
BIT UNCERTAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING NAM12/GFS/LOCALLY RUN BTV-4KM WRF INDICATE
SBCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN VT AND
PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG
ACROSS NRN NY. SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 25-30
KTS...SUGGESTING SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IF INSTABILITY CAN
MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST. WOULD ANTICIPATE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS VT...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO...WITH BEST POTENTIAL CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...BUT WILL
DEPEND ON DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS BEST MID-
LEVEL FORCING MOVES THRU CENTRAL VT THIS AFTERNOON. SPC 21Z CALIBRATED
SREF PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS SHOWS SOME LOW POTENTIAL ACROSS
VT THIS AFTN (HIGHEST 18-21Z) AND INITIAL 06Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
CARRIES 5% PROBABILITY OF SVR HAIL/WIND WITHIN 25 MILES OF A
POINT. WILL CARRY MENTION OF SUB-SEVERE WIND IN THE GRIDS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MESOSCALE TRENDS INTO THE DAYLIGHT HRS.

HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60-65F RANGE. GRADIENT FLOW SUPPORTS SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. GUSTS 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN.

HIGHEST POP VALUES GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON (70-90%)...AND THEN
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OUT OF THE AREA. WILL SEE A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WITH A
MODEST ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT PASSING THRU 00-03Z WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE LIFTS OUT NEWD
ACROSS QUEBEC BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. 00Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM IN PREVAILING MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW REGIME...AND
SHOULD YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. IT
WILL FEEL PLEASANT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S
BY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MIXING/INSOLATIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 8-14 MPH 15-23Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +8C AND SUNSHINE SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 1000-500MB MEAN RH VALUES OF 20-30
PERCENT. ALL IN ALL A QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS CONTROLLED BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. WITH MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN WIDE TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRODNACKS AND VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO THE LOW-MID 50S
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (WARMEST NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

CONTINUED PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
MAINTENANCE OF WEAK RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT AND <30% MEAN
1000-500MB RH VALUES. 850MB TEMPS MODERATE SOME TO +10 TO +12C AND
SHOULD SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...BUT WITH CONTINUED LOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR GREATER
UNCERTAINTY ON CHCS FOR PRECIP ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS.
OTHERWISE...EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY.
HAVE CONTINUE TO MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH VERY WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND 5H VORT IN JET WINDS
ALOFT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR NORTHERN ZNS...WITH VERY MINIMAL
INSTABILITY VALUES. HAVE JUST MENTION SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER
ATTM. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MTNS ON SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON SUNDAY...WITH LATEST 00Z GFS
SHOWING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMING CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHCS WHILE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. GFS SHOWS
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH FIELDS...ALONG WITH A DEEPER TROF ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SOME LIFT AND WEAK
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP FCST DRY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY
FROM SFC HEATING AND WEAK INSTABILITY. ANY ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN BY SUNSET WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR BOTH SAT/SUN AND
LOWS IN THE 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO NEAR 60F CPV. MUCH WARMER AIR
ARRIVES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 15C BY 18Z
TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
MENTION TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE LATE TUES
INTO WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STORMS
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING IS IMPACTING SOUTHERN VT. THESE STORMS
WILL IMPACT RUTLAND AND MPV BTN 12-15Z WITH SOME LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MVFR VIS/CIGS. ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED IFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURING OVER THE
SLV...AND MAY IMPACT MSS THRU 15Z. EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR THIS
MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS BY EARLY THIS AFTN. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWN POURS...WHICH WILL REDUCE VIS
BLW 3SM AT TIMES. HAVE USED A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 16Z AND 19Z TO
COVER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTN...WITH GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF STORMS OVER OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF
SITES...BTV/PBG/RUT/MPV/SLK. SLOW CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH
PRES...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BTWN 06Z AND 12Z THURS
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011129
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
729 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC TONIGHT...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTH-SOUTH FROM SERN ONTARIO ACROSS ERN OH/WV EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL ACQUIRE SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT TRANSLATES NEWD ACROSS NY
LATE THIS MORNING AND ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATELY
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS (BY EARLY JULY STANDARDS)...CYCLONIC FLOW AND
MID-LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT
APPEARS SHOWERS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN...BUT
PREVAILING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING INFLUENCE OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAKE FORECAST MAX SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY A
BIT UNCERTAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING NAM12/GFS/LOCALLY RUN BTV-4KM WRF INDICATE
SBCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN VT AND
PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG
ACROSS NRN NY. SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 25-30
KTS...SUGGESTING SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IF INSTABILITY CAN
MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST. WOULD ANTICIPATE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS VT...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO...WITH BEST POTENTIAL CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...BUT WILL
DEPEND ON DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS BEST MID-
LEVEL FORCING MOVES THRU CENTRAL VT THIS AFTERNOON. SPC 21Z CALIBRATED
SREF PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS SHOWS SOME LOW POTENTIAL ACROSS
VT THIS AFTN (HIGHEST 18-21Z) AND INITIAL 06Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
CARRIES 5% PROBABILITY OF SVR HAIL/WIND WITHIN 25 MILES OF A
POINT. WILL CARRY MENTION OF SUB-SEVERE WIND IN THE GRIDS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MESOSCALE TRENDS INTO THE DAYLIGHT HRS.

HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60-65F RANGE. GRADIENT FLOW SUPPORTS SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. GUSTS 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN.

HIGHEST POP VALUES GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON (70-90%)...AND THEN
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OUT OF THE AREA. WILL SEE A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WITH A
MODEST ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT PASSING THRU 00-03Z WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE LIFTS OUT NEWD
ACROSS QUEBEC BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. 00Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM IN PREVAILING MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW REGIME...AND
SHOULD YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. IT
WILL FEEL PLEASANT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S
BY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MIXING/INSOLATIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 8-14 MPH 15-23Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +8C AND SUNSHINE SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 1000-500MB MEAN RH VALUES OF 20-30
PERCENT. ALL IN ALL A QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS CONTROLLED BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. WITH MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN WIDE TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRODNACKS AND VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO THE LOW-MID 50S
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (WARMEST NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

CONTINUED PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
MAINTENANCE OF WEAK RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT AND <30% MEAN
1000-500MB RH VALUES. 850MB TEMPS MODERATE SOME TO +10 TO +12C AND
SHOULD SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...BUT WITH CONTINUED LOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR GREATER
UNCERTAINTY ON CHCS FOR PRECIP ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS.
OTHERWISE...EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY.
HAVE CONTINUE TO MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH VERY WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND 5H VORT IN JET WINDS
ALOFT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR NORTHERN ZNS...WITH VERY MINIMAL
INSTABILITY VALUES. HAVE JUST MENTION SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER
ATTM. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MTNS ON SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON SUNDAY...WITH LATEST 00Z GFS
SHOWING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMING CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHCS WHILE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. GFS SHOWS
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH FIELDS...ALONG WITH A DEEPER TROF ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SOME LIFT AND WEAK
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP FCST DRY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY
FROM SFC HEATING AND WEAK INSTABILITY. ANY ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN BY SUNSET WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR BOTH SAT/SUN AND
LOWS IN THE 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO NEAR 60F CPV. MUCH WARMER AIR
ARRIVES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 15C BY 18Z
TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
MENTION TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE LATE TUES
INTO WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STORMS
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING IS IMPACTING SOUTHERN VT. THESE STORMS
WILL IMPACT RUTLAND AND MPV BTN 12-15Z WITH SOME LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MVFR VIS/CIGS. ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED IFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURING OVER THE
SLV...AND MAY IMPACT MSS THRU 15Z. EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR THIS
MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS BY EARLY THIS AFTN. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWN POURS...WHICH WILL REDUCE VIS
BLW 3SM AT TIMES. HAVE USED A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 16Z AND 19Z TO
COVER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTN...WITH GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF STORMS OVER OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF
SITES...BTV/PBG/RUT/MPV/SLK. SLOW CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH
PRES...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BTWN 06Z AND 12Z THURS
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011129
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
729 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC TONIGHT...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTH-SOUTH FROM SERN ONTARIO ACROSS ERN OH/WV EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL ACQUIRE SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT TRANSLATES NEWD ACROSS NY
LATE THIS MORNING AND ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATELY
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS (BY EARLY JULY STANDARDS)...CYCLONIC FLOW AND
MID-LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT
APPEARS SHOWERS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN...BUT
PREVAILING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING INFLUENCE OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAKE FORECAST MAX SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY A
BIT UNCERTAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING NAM12/GFS/LOCALLY RUN BTV-4KM WRF INDICATE
SBCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN VT AND
PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG
ACROSS NRN NY. SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 25-30
KTS...SUGGESTING SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IF INSTABILITY CAN
MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST. WOULD ANTICIPATE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS VT...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO...WITH BEST POTENTIAL CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...BUT WILL
DEPEND ON DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS BEST MID-
LEVEL FORCING MOVES THRU CENTRAL VT THIS AFTERNOON. SPC 21Z CALIBRATED
SREF PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS SHOWS SOME LOW POTENTIAL ACROSS
VT THIS AFTN (HIGHEST 18-21Z) AND INITIAL 06Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
CARRIES 5% PROBABILITY OF SVR HAIL/WIND WITHIN 25 MILES OF A
POINT. WILL CARRY MENTION OF SUB-SEVERE WIND IN THE GRIDS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MESOSCALE TRENDS INTO THE DAYLIGHT HRS.

HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60-65F RANGE. GRADIENT FLOW SUPPORTS SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. GUSTS 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN.

HIGHEST POP VALUES GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON (70-90%)...AND THEN
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OUT OF THE AREA. WILL SEE A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WITH A
MODEST ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT PASSING THRU 00-03Z WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE LIFTS OUT NEWD
ACROSS QUEBEC BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. 00Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM IN PREVAILING MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW REGIME...AND
SHOULD YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. IT
WILL FEEL PLEASANT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S
BY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MIXING/INSOLATIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 8-14 MPH 15-23Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +8C AND SUNSHINE SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 1000-500MB MEAN RH VALUES OF 20-30
PERCENT. ALL IN ALL A QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS CONTROLLED BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. WITH MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN WIDE TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRODNACKS AND VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO THE LOW-MID 50S
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (WARMEST NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

CONTINUED PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
MAINTENANCE OF WEAK RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT AND <30% MEAN
1000-500MB RH VALUES. 850MB TEMPS MODERATE SOME TO +10 TO +12C AND
SHOULD SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...BUT WITH CONTINUED LOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR GREATER
UNCERTAINTY ON CHCS FOR PRECIP ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS.
OTHERWISE...EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY.
HAVE CONTINUE TO MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH VERY WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND 5H VORT IN JET WINDS
ALOFT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR NORTHERN ZNS...WITH VERY MINIMAL
INSTABILITY VALUES. HAVE JUST MENTION SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER
ATTM. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MTNS ON SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON SUNDAY...WITH LATEST 00Z GFS
SHOWING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMING CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHCS WHILE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. GFS SHOWS
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH FIELDS...ALONG WITH A DEEPER TROF ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SOME LIFT AND WEAK
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP FCST DRY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY
FROM SFC HEATING AND WEAK INSTABILITY. ANY ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN BY SUNSET WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR BOTH SAT/SUN AND
LOWS IN THE 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO NEAR 60F CPV. MUCH WARMER AIR
ARRIVES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 15C BY 18Z
TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
MENTION TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE LATE TUES
INTO WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STORMS
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING IS IMPACTING SOUTHERN VT. THESE STORMS
WILL IMPACT RUTLAND AND MPV BTN 12-15Z WITH SOME LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MVFR VIS/CIGS. ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED IFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURING OVER THE
SLV...AND MAY IMPACT MSS THRU 15Z. EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR THIS
MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS BY EARLY THIS AFTN. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWN POURS...WHICH WILL REDUCE VIS
BLW 3SM AT TIMES. HAVE USED A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 16Z AND 19Z TO
COVER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTN...WITH GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF STORMS OVER OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF
SITES...BTV/PBG/RUT/MPV/SLK. SLOW CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH
PRES...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BTWN 06Z AND 12Z THURS
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011129
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
729 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC TONIGHT...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTH-SOUTH FROM SERN ONTARIO ACROSS ERN OH/WV EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL ACQUIRE SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT TRANSLATES NEWD ACROSS NY
LATE THIS MORNING AND ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATELY
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS (BY EARLY JULY STANDARDS)...CYCLONIC FLOW AND
MID-LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT
APPEARS SHOWERS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN...BUT
PREVAILING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING INFLUENCE OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAKE FORECAST MAX SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY A
BIT UNCERTAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING NAM12/GFS/LOCALLY RUN BTV-4KM WRF INDICATE
SBCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN VT AND
PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG
ACROSS NRN NY. SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 25-30
KTS...SUGGESTING SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IF INSTABILITY CAN
MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST. WOULD ANTICIPATE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS VT...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO...WITH BEST POTENTIAL CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...BUT WILL
DEPEND ON DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS BEST MID-
LEVEL FORCING MOVES THRU CENTRAL VT THIS AFTERNOON. SPC 21Z CALIBRATED
SREF PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS SHOWS SOME LOW POTENTIAL ACROSS
VT THIS AFTN (HIGHEST 18-21Z) AND INITIAL 06Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
CARRIES 5% PROBABILITY OF SVR HAIL/WIND WITHIN 25 MILES OF A
POINT. WILL CARRY MENTION OF SUB-SEVERE WIND IN THE GRIDS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MESOSCALE TRENDS INTO THE DAYLIGHT HRS.

HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60-65F RANGE. GRADIENT FLOW SUPPORTS SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. GUSTS 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN.

HIGHEST POP VALUES GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON (70-90%)...AND THEN
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OUT OF THE AREA. WILL SEE A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WITH A
MODEST ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT PASSING THRU 00-03Z WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE LIFTS OUT NEWD
ACROSS QUEBEC BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. 00Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM IN PREVAILING MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW REGIME...AND
SHOULD YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. IT
WILL FEEL PLEASANT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S
BY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MIXING/INSOLATIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 8-14 MPH 15-23Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +8C AND SUNSHINE SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 1000-500MB MEAN RH VALUES OF 20-30
PERCENT. ALL IN ALL A QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS CONTROLLED BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. WITH MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN WIDE TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRODNACKS AND VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO THE LOW-MID 50S
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (WARMEST NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

CONTINUED PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
MAINTENANCE OF WEAK RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT AND <30% MEAN
1000-500MB RH VALUES. 850MB TEMPS MODERATE SOME TO +10 TO +12C AND
SHOULD SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...BUT WITH CONTINUED LOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR GREATER
UNCERTAINTY ON CHCS FOR PRECIP ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS.
OTHERWISE...EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY.
HAVE CONTINUE TO MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH VERY WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND 5H VORT IN JET WINDS
ALOFT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR NORTHERN ZNS...WITH VERY MINIMAL
INSTABILITY VALUES. HAVE JUST MENTION SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER
ATTM. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MTNS ON SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON SUNDAY...WITH LATEST 00Z GFS
SHOWING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMING CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHCS WHILE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. GFS SHOWS
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH FIELDS...ALONG WITH A DEEPER TROF ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SOME LIFT AND WEAK
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP FCST DRY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY
FROM SFC HEATING AND WEAK INSTABILITY. ANY ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN BY SUNSET WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR BOTH SAT/SUN AND
LOWS IN THE 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO NEAR 60F CPV. MUCH WARMER AIR
ARRIVES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 15C BY 18Z
TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
MENTION TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE LATE TUES
INTO WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STORMS
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING IS IMPACTING SOUTHERN VT. THESE STORMS
WILL IMPACT RUTLAND AND MPV BTN 12-15Z WITH SOME LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MVFR VIS/CIGS. ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED IFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURING OVER THE
SLV...AND MAY IMPACT MSS THRU 15Z. EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR THIS
MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS BY EARLY THIS AFTN. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWN POURS...WHICH WILL REDUCE VIS
BLW 3SM AT TIMES. HAVE USED A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 16Z AND 19Z TO
COVER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTN...WITH GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF STORMS OVER OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF
SITES...BTV/PBG/RUT/MPV/SLK. SLOW CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH
PRES...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BTWN 06Z AND 12Z THURS
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011129
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
729 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC TONIGHT...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTH-SOUTH FROM SERN ONTARIO ACROSS ERN OH/WV EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL ACQUIRE SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT TRANSLATES NEWD ACROSS NY
LATE THIS MORNING AND ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATELY
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS (BY EARLY JULY STANDARDS)...CYCLONIC FLOW AND
MID-LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT
APPEARS SHOWERS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN...BUT
PREVAILING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING INFLUENCE OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAKE FORECAST MAX SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY A
BIT UNCERTAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING NAM12/GFS/LOCALLY RUN BTV-4KM WRF INDICATE
SBCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN VT AND
PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG
ACROSS NRN NY. SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 25-30
KTS...SUGGESTING SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IF INSTABILITY CAN
MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST. WOULD ANTICIPATE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS VT...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO...WITH BEST POTENTIAL CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...BUT WILL
DEPEND ON DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS BEST MID-
LEVEL FORCING MOVES THRU CENTRAL VT THIS AFTERNOON. SPC 21Z CALIBRATED
SREF PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS SHOWS SOME LOW POTENTIAL ACROSS
VT THIS AFTN (HIGHEST 18-21Z) AND INITIAL 06Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
CARRIES 5% PROBABILITY OF SVR HAIL/WIND WITHIN 25 MILES OF A
POINT. WILL CARRY MENTION OF SUB-SEVERE WIND IN THE GRIDS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MESOSCALE TRENDS INTO THE DAYLIGHT HRS.

HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60-65F RANGE. GRADIENT FLOW SUPPORTS SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. GUSTS 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN.

HIGHEST POP VALUES GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON (70-90%)...AND THEN
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OUT OF THE AREA. WILL SEE A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WITH A
MODEST ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT PASSING THRU 00-03Z WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE LIFTS OUT NEWD
ACROSS QUEBEC BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. 00Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM IN PREVAILING MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW REGIME...AND
SHOULD YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. IT
WILL FEEL PLEASANT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S
BY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MIXING/INSOLATIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 8-14 MPH 15-23Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +8C AND SUNSHINE SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 1000-500MB MEAN RH VALUES OF 20-30
PERCENT. ALL IN ALL A QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS CONTROLLED BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. WITH MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN WIDE TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRODNACKS AND VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO THE LOW-MID 50S
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (WARMEST NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

CONTINUED PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
MAINTENANCE OF WEAK RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT AND <30% MEAN
1000-500MB RH VALUES. 850MB TEMPS MODERATE SOME TO +10 TO +12C AND
SHOULD SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...BUT WITH CONTINUED LOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR GREATER
UNCERTAINTY ON CHCS FOR PRECIP ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS.
OTHERWISE...EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY.
HAVE CONTINUE TO MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH VERY WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND 5H VORT IN JET WINDS
ALOFT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR NORTHERN ZNS...WITH VERY MINIMAL
INSTABILITY VALUES. HAVE JUST MENTION SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER
ATTM. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MTNS ON SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON SUNDAY...WITH LATEST 00Z GFS
SHOWING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMING CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHCS WHILE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. GFS SHOWS
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH FIELDS...ALONG WITH A DEEPER TROF ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SOME LIFT AND WEAK
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP FCST DRY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY
FROM SFC HEATING AND WEAK INSTABILITY. ANY ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN BY SUNSET WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR BOTH SAT/SUN AND
LOWS IN THE 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO NEAR 60F CPV. MUCH WARMER AIR
ARRIVES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 15C BY 18Z
TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
MENTION TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE LATE TUES
INTO WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STORMS
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING IS IMPACTING SOUTHERN VT. THESE STORMS
WILL IMPACT RUTLAND AND MPV BTN 12-15Z WITH SOME LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MVFR VIS/CIGS. ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED IFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURING OVER THE
SLV...AND MAY IMPACT MSS THRU 15Z. EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR THIS
MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS BY EARLY THIS AFTN. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWN POURS...WHICH WILL REDUCE VIS
BLW 3SM AT TIMES. HAVE USED A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 16Z AND 19Z TO
COVER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTN...WITH GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF STORMS OVER OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF
SITES...BTV/PBG/RUT/MPV/SLK. SLOW CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH
PRES...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BTWN 06Z AND 12Z THURS
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER



000
FXUS61 KBUF 011102
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
702 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MUGGY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR ONE
MORE DAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL LOWER THE HUMIDITY LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH AIR TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY
MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH.

REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY AN AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY REACHING FAR SW
NYS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO CANADA.

FOR TODAY EXPECT CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS
UPSTREAM VORT MAXES PASS THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. IN ADDITION TO THE LIFT ALOFT GENERATED BY THE EMBEDDED
VORT MAXES...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES RISING TO 300 T0 400 J/KG TO
GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY NOR
DECENT LAPSE RATES/COOLING ALOFT TO PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
AREA LIKELIEST TO HAVE A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES REGION WHERE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST.

A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL FORM LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THIS BREEZE MEETING THE NEARING COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY PRODUCE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...CENTERED NEAR THE ERIE/NIAGARA COUNTY
LINE. ALL ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

AS THIS FRONT PASSES TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
DEWPOINTS MAY LINGER WITHIN THE MID 50S BEFORE FALLING LATE. SOME
PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE...WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HILLS OF SW NYS. A RATHER CLOUDY START TO THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD
WILL HAVE SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR ON A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
REACHES OUR REGION. ANY CLEARING WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND AROUND LAKE ONTARIO...WITH STRATUS CLOUDS
HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE INLAND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR TWO DAYS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW THE MID 70S. TONIGHT AIR TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DESPITE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF NORTH AMERICA...MAINLY PROBLEM-FREE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

THIS TIME FRAME WILL OPEN WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PROVINCE OF QUEBEC. AS THIS FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM
EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE DEEPENING DRY AIR AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE ONLY POSSIBLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION. WHILE H5 TEMPS IN THE MINUS
TEENS C WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
MORE THAN 7 DEG C DURING THE AFTERNOON...FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH DRYING TO ONLY ALLOW FOR SOME ENHANCED MIDDAY/AFTERNOON CU.
WILL MAINTAIN SLGT CHC POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SRN
TIER...BUT THIS IS PROBABLY BEING OVERLY PESSIMISTIC. MEANWHILE...
H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 10C SUPPORTING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
70S.

THE CENTER OF THE WEAK...BUT EXPANSIVE GREAT LAKES SFC HIGH WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WITHIN A
FRESH DRY AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE A COOL NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO TEMPS UNDER STARLIT SKIES WILL DROP INTO
THE LOWER 50S AWAY FROM THE LAKES. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED SRN
TIER VALLEYS AND SITES EAST OF THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY COULD EVEN
BRIEFLY VISIT THE UPPER 40S. THESE READINGS WILL BE SOME 10 DEG F
BELOW TYPICAL EARLY JULY VALUES.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER SUN FILLED DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW COULD ADVECT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SRN TIER TO ENCOURAGE INCREASING CUMULUS CLOUDS FOR
THAT AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...A VERY NICE DAY
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS NOW BEING ADVERTISED BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
PACKAGES TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE COURSE OF
FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INSERT SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AFTER JUST ONE
PESSIMISTIC MODEL RUN. WILL RAISE POPS TO SLGT CHC FOR NOW AND
INCREASE CLOUDS FOR THAT AREA WHILE LEAVING FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE.

FOR SATURDAY...A BROAD BASED TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS HAS BEEN THE CONCERN FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THIS FEATURE COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE SHOWERS...
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THOUGH WOULD BE A FAR CRY FROM THE WASHOUT THAT WE EXPERIENCED THE
PREVIOUS SATURDAY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY EVENING IN TIME FOR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...AS RIDGING OVER
WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN MOVES WILL BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY MONDAY WE SHOULD START
TO SEE READINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 06Z MAINLY VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. THERE CONTINUES SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH THUNDER HAS LARGELY ENDED FROM THE
STORMS OVERNIGHT.

AS TEMPERATURES COOL SOME TO THEIR DEWPOINT SOME IFR/LOW END MVFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS KJHW/KBUF/KIAG LATER
OVERNIGHT.

LATER TODAY WILL FEATURE AGAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES VARYING IN THE
MVFR/VFR FLIGHT RANGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM...BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH
BETTER DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT MAY EVEN TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

AS THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL END SHOWER CHANCES AND
ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUDS. HOWEVER SOME IFR LOW STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE TO HANG OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING THE KJHW
AIRFIELD OVERNIGHT.

A SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 15 KNOTS NE OF
LAKE ERIE BEHIND A LAKE ERIE BREEZE. WINDS WILL VEER TO WESTERLY AND
RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY...WITH A
SOUTHWEST WIND BLOWING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKE WATERS. AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT SOME OF THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20
KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE TODAY AND PRODUCE WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR LAKE ERIE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE UNUSUAL EARLY SUMMER +PNA PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING IS SIMILAR TO THE PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGE OF THE
PAST COUPLE WINTERS. IN FACT...THE CURRENT 6 TO 8 MONTH PATTERN IS
PART OF ONE OF THE STRONGEST +PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST FIVE YEARS.
THE CURRENT LONG TERM PATTERN HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION FOR FIVE OF THE PAST PAST SIX
MONTHS...INCLUDING THE JUST ENDED MONTH OF JUNE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
CLIMATE...RSH



000
FXUS61 KBUF 011102
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
702 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MUGGY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR ONE
MORE DAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL LOWER THE HUMIDITY LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH AIR TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY
MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH.

REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY AN AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY REACHING FAR SW
NYS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO CANADA.

FOR TODAY EXPECT CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS
UPSTREAM VORT MAXES PASS THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. IN ADDITION TO THE LIFT ALOFT GENERATED BY THE EMBEDDED
VORT MAXES...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES RISING TO 300 T0 400 J/KG TO
GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY NOR
DECENT LAPSE RATES/COOLING ALOFT TO PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
AREA LIKELIEST TO HAVE A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES REGION WHERE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST.

A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL FORM LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THIS BREEZE MEETING THE NEARING COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY PRODUCE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...CENTERED NEAR THE ERIE/NIAGARA COUNTY
LINE. ALL ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

AS THIS FRONT PASSES TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
DEWPOINTS MAY LINGER WITHIN THE MID 50S BEFORE FALLING LATE. SOME
PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE...WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HILLS OF SW NYS. A RATHER CLOUDY START TO THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD
WILL HAVE SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR ON A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
REACHES OUR REGION. ANY CLEARING WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND AROUND LAKE ONTARIO...WITH STRATUS CLOUDS
HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE INLAND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR TWO DAYS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW THE MID 70S. TONIGHT AIR TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DESPITE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF NORTH AMERICA...MAINLY PROBLEM-FREE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

THIS TIME FRAME WILL OPEN WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PROVINCE OF QUEBEC. AS THIS FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM
EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE DEEPENING DRY AIR AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE ONLY POSSIBLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION. WHILE H5 TEMPS IN THE MINUS
TEENS C WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
MORE THAN 7 DEG C DURING THE AFTERNOON...FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH DRYING TO ONLY ALLOW FOR SOME ENHANCED MIDDAY/AFTERNOON CU.
WILL MAINTAIN SLGT CHC POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SRN
TIER...BUT THIS IS PROBABLY BEING OVERLY PESSIMISTIC. MEANWHILE...
H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 10C SUPPORTING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
70S.

THE CENTER OF THE WEAK...BUT EXPANSIVE GREAT LAKES SFC HIGH WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WITHIN A
FRESH DRY AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE A COOL NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO TEMPS UNDER STARLIT SKIES WILL DROP INTO
THE LOWER 50S AWAY FROM THE LAKES. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED SRN
TIER VALLEYS AND SITES EAST OF THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY COULD EVEN
BRIEFLY VISIT THE UPPER 40S. THESE READINGS WILL BE SOME 10 DEG F
BELOW TYPICAL EARLY JULY VALUES.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER SUN FILLED DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW COULD ADVECT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SRN TIER TO ENCOURAGE INCREASING CUMULUS CLOUDS FOR
THAT AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...A VERY NICE DAY
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS NOW BEING ADVERTISED BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
PACKAGES TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE COURSE OF
FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INSERT SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AFTER JUST ONE
PESSIMISTIC MODEL RUN. WILL RAISE POPS TO SLGT CHC FOR NOW AND
INCREASE CLOUDS FOR THAT AREA WHILE LEAVING FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE.

FOR SATURDAY...A BROAD BASED TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS HAS BEEN THE CONCERN FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THIS FEATURE COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE SHOWERS...
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THOUGH WOULD BE A FAR CRY FROM THE WASHOUT THAT WE EXPERIENCED THE
PREVIOUS SATURDAY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY EVENING IN TIME FOR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...AS RIDGING OVER
WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN MOVES WILL BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY MONDAY WE SHOULD START
TO SEE READINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 06Z MAINLY VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. THERE CONTINUES SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH THUNDER HAS LARGELY ENDED FROM THE
STORMS OVERNIGHT.

AS TEMPERATURES COOL SOME TO THEIR DEWPOINT SOME IFR/LOW END MVFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS KJHW/KBUF/KIAG LATER
OVERNIGHT.

LATER TODAY WILL FEATURE AGAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES VARYING IN THE
MVFR/VFR FLIGHT RANGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM...BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH
BETTER DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT MAY EVEN TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

AS THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL END SHOWER CHANCES AND
ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUDS. HOWEVER SOME IFR LOW STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE TO HANG OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING THE KJHW
AIRFIELD OVERNIGHT.

A SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 15 KNOTS NE OF
LAKE ERIE BEHIND A LAKE ERIE BREEZE. WINDS WILL VEER TO WESTERLY AND
RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY...WITH A
SOUTHWEST WIND BLOWING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKE WATERS. AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT SOME OF THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20
KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE TODAY AND PRODUCE WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR LAKE ERIE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE UNUSUAL EARLY SUMMER +PNA PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING IS SIMILAR TO THE PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGE OF THE
PAST COUPLE WINTERS. IN FACT...THE CURRENT 6 TO 8 MONTH PATTERN IS
PART OF ONE OF THE STRONGEST +PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST FIVE YEARS.
THE CURRENT LONG TERM PATTERN HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION FOR FIVE OF THE PAST PAST SIX
MONTHS...INCLUDING THE JUST ENDED MONTH OF JUNE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
CLIMATE...RSH



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBGM 011044
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN IS STILL OVER PARTS OF NEPA AND
SULLIVAN/DELAWARE COUNTIES IN NY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
HERE THROUGH DAYBREAK, AND THUS OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE FOR PART OF THE AREA. AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST THIS
MORNING, WITH IT WILL GO THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES AND THREAT FOR
HEAVIER RAIN.

THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHERN PA
NORTH. WITH A CLEAR SKY AND NEAR CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND OUR
RECENT BOUTS OF RAIN, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RIPE FOR DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH DRIER DAY ACROSS THE AREA. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS UP UNTIL JUST LAST NIGHT,
SHOWED A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER IN NORTHERN
PA/SOUTHERN NY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH DRIER ON THE 0Z RUNS AND
THEREFORE IN COLLABORATION WITH OTHER OFFICES, WILL KEEP THURSDAY
DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND
PROVIDE US WITH A GREAT END TO THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST. JUST
TWEAKED TEMPS, WINDS AND POPS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY.

400 PM UPDATE...
A TROF OVER LOWER ONTARIO WILL PRESS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY,
CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY OVER NY AND
PA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL REBUILD FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING INTO THE 80S. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIR INTO MONDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROF SWINGS INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PLENTY OF LOWER CLOUDS AROUND TAF SITES IN C NY AND NE PA THIS
MORNING WITH PATCHY MVFR AND ISLD IFR RESTRICTIONS. THE IFR WAS
CONFINED TO KBGM ON THE HILL AND IN KAVP WHERE RECENT RAINS HAVE
FELL. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AND
ORGANIZE MORE SHRA AND TSRA BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS. IN THE TIME LEADING UP TO THIS...INSOLATION WILL
LEAD TO A BKN CUMULUS LAYER EVOLVING FROM THE MORE STABLE STRATUS
LATER OF THE EARLY MORNING. CIGS SHUD RUN FROM 4000 AND 6000 FEET
BY LATE MORNING ALL TAF SITES IN A TYPICAL CUMULUS FIELD. SHRA
AND TSRA WILL LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ALL TAF SITES AS
FRONT MOVES THRU...EXCEPT KAVP WHERE WE THINK THE PROBABILITY IS
LOWER THAN 50 PCT.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT AND ASSCTD PRECIP PASSES E BY ARND 20Z...VFR
SCT CUMULUS WITH HIGHER CLOUDS ABOVE SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER
DARK WHEN A MOIST LL NW FLOW GETS ESTABLISHED. THIS LL NW FLOW
WILL BRING DOWN MVFR CIGS TO ALL TAF SITES...EXCEPT KBGM WHERE IT
LIKELY WILL BE IFR LATE IN THE TAF PD. KELM LIKELY WILL REMAIN
ARND 3500 FEET OR SO AND BE CLOSE TO MVFR. THE LOWER CLOUDS AND LL
MOISTURE DON/T QUITE REACH KAVP B4 12Z THU. SO HAVE JUST VFR IN
CLOUDS LATE IN TAF PD THERE.

WINDS WILL BE W-SW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND W-NW THIS
AFTERNOON 8-12 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS...THEN BECOME WEAKER
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DJN/DJP
AVIATION...DJN




000
FXUS61 KBGM 011044
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN IS STILL OVER PARTS OF NEPA AND
SULLIVAN/DELAWARE COUNTIES IN NY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
HERE THROUGH DAYBREAK, AND THUS OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE FOR PART OF THE AREA. AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST THIS
MORNING, WITH IT WILL GO THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES AND THREAT FOR
HEAVIER RAIN.

THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHERN PA
NORTH. WITH A CLEAR SKY AND NEAR CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND OUR
RECENT BOUTS OF RAIN, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RIPE FOR DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH DRIER DAY ACROSS THE AREA. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS UP UNTIL JUST LAST NIGHT,
SHOWED A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER IN NORTHERN
PA/SOUTHERN NY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH DRIER ON THE 0Z RUNS AND
THEREFORE IN COLLABORATION WITH OTHER OFFICES, WILL KEEP THURSDAY
DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND
PROVIDE US WITH A GREAT END TO THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST. JUST
TWEAKED TEMPS, WINDS AND POPS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY.

400 PM UPDATE...
A TROF OVER LOWER ONTARIO WILL PRESS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY,
CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY OVER NY AND
PA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL REBUILD FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING INTO THE 80S. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIR INTO MONDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROF SWINGS INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PLENTY OF LOWER CLOUDS AROUND TAF SITES IN C NY AND NE PA THIS
MORNING WITH PATCHY MVFR AND ISLD IFR RESTRICTIONS. THE IFR WAS
CONFINED TO KBGM ON THE HILL AND IN KAVP WHERE RECENT RAINS HAVE
FELL. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AND
ORGANIZE MORE SHRA AND TSRA BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS. IN THE TIME LEADING UP TO THIS...INSOLATION WILL
LEAD TO A BKN CUMULUS LAYER EVOLVING FROM THE MORE STABLE STRATUS
LATER OF THE EARLY MORNING. CIGS SHUD RUN FROM 4000 AND 6000 FEET
BY LATE MORNING ALL TAF SITES IN A TYPICAL CUMULUS FIELD. SHRA
AND TSRA WILL LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ALL TAF SITES AS
FRONT MOVES THRU...EXCEPT KAVP WHERE WE THINK THE PROBABILITY IS
LOWER THAN 50 PCT.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT AND ASSCTD PRECIP PASSES E BY ARND 20Z...VFR
SCT CUMULUS WITH HIGHER CLOUDS ABOVE SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER
DARK WHEN A MOIST LL NW FLOW GETS ESTABLISHED. THIS LL NW FLOW
WILL BRING DOWN MVFR CIGS TO ALL TAF SITES...EXCEPT KBGM WHERE IT
LIKELY WILL BE IFR LATE IN THE TAF PD. KELM LIKELY WILL REMAIN
ARND 3500 FEET OR SO AND BE CLOSE TO MVFR. THE LOWER CLOUDS AND LL
MOISTURE DON/T QUITE REACH KAVP B4 12Z THU. SO HAVE JUST VFR IN
CLOUDS LATE IN TAF PD THERE.

WINDS WILL BE W-SW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND W-NW THIS
AFTERNOON 8-12 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS...THEN BECOME WEAKER
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DJN/DJP
AVIATION...DJN



000
FXUS61 KBGM 011044
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN IS STILL OVER PARTS OF NEPA AND
SULLIVAN/DELAWARE COUNTIES IN NY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
HERE THROUGH DAYBREAK, AND THUS OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE FOR PART OF THE AREA. AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST THIS
MORNING, WITH IT WILL GO THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES AND THREAT FOR
HEAVIER RAIN.

THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHERN PA
NORTH. WITH A CLEAR SKY AND NEAR CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND OUR
RECENT BOUTS OF RAIN, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RIPE FOR DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH DRIER DAY ACROSS THE AREA. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS UP UNTIL JUST LAST NIGHT,
SHOWED A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER IN NORTHERN
PA/SOUTHERN NY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH DRIER ON THE 0Z RUNS AND
THEREFORE IN COLLABORATION WITH OTHER OFFICES, WILL KEEP THURSDAY
DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND
PROVIDE US WITH A GREAT END TO THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST. JUST
TWEAKED TEMPS, WINDS AND POPS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY.

400 PM UPDATE...
A TROF OVER LOWER ONTARIO WILL PRESS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY,
CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY OVER NY AND
PA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL REBUILD FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING INTO THE 80S. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIR INTO MONDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROF SWINGS INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PLENTY OF LOWER CLOUDS AROUND TAF SITES IN C NY AND NE PA THIS
MORNING WITH PATCHY MVFR AND ISLD IFR RESTRICTIONS. THE IFR WAS
CONFINED TO KBGM ON THE HILL AND IN KAVP WHERE RECENT RAINS HAVE
FELL. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AND
ORGANIZE MORE SHRA AND TSRA BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS. IN THE TIME LEADING UP TO THIS...INSOLATION WILL
LEAD TO A BKN CUMULUS LAYER EVOLVING FROM THE MORE STABLE STRATUS
LATER OF THE EARLY MORNING. CIGS SHUD RUN FROM 4000 AND 6000 FEET
BY LATE MORNING ALL TAF SITES IN A TYPICAL CUMULUS FIELD. SHRA
AND TSRA WILL LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ALL TAF SITES AS
FRONT MOVES THRU...EXCEPT KAVP WHERE WE THINK THE PROBABILITY IS
LOWER THAN 50 PCT.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT AND ASSCTD PRECIP PASSES E BY ARND 20Z...VFR
SCT CUMULUS WITH HIGHER CLOUDS ABOVE SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER
DARK WHEN A MOIST LL NW FLOW GETS ESTABLISHED. THIS LL NW FLOW
WILL BRING DOWN MVFR CIGS TO ALL TAF SITES...EXCEPT KBGM WHERE IT
LIKELY WILL BE IFR LATE IN THE TAF PD. KELM LIKELY WILL REMAIN
ARND 3500 FEET OR SO AND BE CLOSE TO MVFR. THE LOWER CLOUDS AND LL
MOISTURE DON/T QUITE REACH KAVP B4 12Z THU. SO HAVE JUST VFR IN
CLOUDS LATE IN TAF PD THERE.

WINDS WILL BE W-SW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND W-NW THIS
AFTERNOON 8-12 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS...THEN BECOME WEAKER
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DJN/DJP
AVIATION...DJN



000
FXUS61 KBGM 011044
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN IS STILL OVER PARTS OF NEPA AND
SULLIVAN/DELAWARE COUNTIES IN NY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
HERE THROUGH DAYBREAK, AND THUS OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE FOR PART OF THE AREA. AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST THIS
MORNING, WITH IT WILL GO THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES AND THREAT FOR
HEAVIER RAIN.

THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHERN PA
NORTH. WITH A CLEAR SKY AND NEAR CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND OUR
RECENT BOUTS OF RAIN, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RIPE FOR DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH DRIER DAY ACROSS THE AREA. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS UP UNTIL JUST LAST NIGHT,
SHOWED A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER IN NORTHERN
PA/SOUTHERN NY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH DRIER ON THE 0Z RUNS AND
THEREFORE IN COLLABORATION WITH OTHER OFFICES, WILL KEEP THURSDAY
DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND
PROVIDE US WITH A GREAT END TO THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST. JUST
TWEAKED TEMPS, WINDS AND POPS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY.

400 PM UPDATE...
A TROF OVER LOWER ONTARIO WILL PRESS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY,
CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY OVER NY AND
PA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL REBUILD FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING INTO THE 80S. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIR INTO MONDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROF SWINGS INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PLENTY OF LOWER CLOUDS AROUND TAF SITES IN C NY AND NE PA THIS
MORNING WITH PATCHY MVFR AND ISLD IFR RESTRICTIONS. THE IFR WAS
CONFINED TO KBGM ON THE HILL AND IN KAVP WHERE RECENT RAINS HAVE
FELL. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AND
ORGANIZE MORE SHRA AND TSRA BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS. IN THE TIME LEADING UP TO THIS...INSOLATION WILL
LEAD TO A BKN CUMULUS LAYER EVOLVING FROM THE MORE STABLE STRATUS
LATER OF THE EARLY MORNING. CIGS SHUD RUN FROM 4000 AND 6000 FEET
BY LATE MORNING ALL TAF SITES IN A TYPICAL CUMULUS FIELD. SHRA
AND TSRA WILL LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ALL TAF SITES AS
FRONT MOVES THRU...EXCEPT KAVP WHERE WE THINK THE PROBABILITY IS
LOWER THAN 50 PCT.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT AND ASSCTD PRECIP PASSES E BY ARND 20Z...VFR
SCT CUMULUS WITH HIGHER CLOUDS ABOVE SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER
DARK WHEN A MOIST LL NW FLOW GETS ESTABLISHED. THIS LL NW FLOW
WILL BRING DOWN MVFR CIGS TO ALL TAF SITES...EXCEPT KBGM WHERE IT
LIKELY WILL BE IFR LATE IN THE TAF PD. KELM LIKELY WILL REMAIN
ARND 3500 FEET OR SO AND BE CLOSE TO MVFR. THE LOWER CLOUDS AND LL
MOISTURE DON/T QUITE REACH KAVP B4 12Z THU. SO HAVE JUST VFR IN
CLOUDS LATE IN TAF PD THERE.

WINDS WILL BE W-SW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND W-NW THIS
AFTERNOON 8-12 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS...THEN BECOME WEAKER
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DJN/DJP
AVIATION...DJN



000
FXUS61 KBGM 011044
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN IS STILL OVER PARTS OF NEPA AND
SULLIVAN/DELAWARE COUNTIES IN NY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
HERE THROUGH DAYBREAK, AND THUS OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE FOR PART OF THE AREA. AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST THIS
MORNING, WITH IT WILL GO THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES AND THREAT FOR
HEAVIER RAIN.

THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHERN PA
NORTH. WITH A CLEAR SKY AND NEAR CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND OUR
RECENT BOUTS OF RAIN, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RIPE FOR DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH DRIER DAY ACROSS THE AREA. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS UP UNTIL JUST LAST NIGHT,
SHOWED A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER IN NORTHERN
PA/SOUTHERN NY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH DRIER ON THE 0Z RUNS AND
THEREFORE IN COLLABORATION WITH OTHER OFFICES, WILL KEEP THURSDAY
DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND
PROVIDE US WITH A GREAT END TO THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST. JUST
TWEAKED TEMPS, WINDS AND POPS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY.

400 PM UPDATE...
A TROF OVER LOWER ONTARIO WILL PRESS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY,
CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY OVER NY AND
PA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL REBUILD FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING INTO THE 80S. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIR INTO MONDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROF SWINGS INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PLENTY OF LOWER CLOUDS AROUND TAF SITES IN C NY AND NE PA THIS
MORNING WITH PATCHY MVFR AND ISLD IFR RESTRICTIONS. THE IFR WAS
CONFINED TO KBGM ON THE HILL AND IN KAVP WHERE RECENT RAINS HAVE
FELL. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AND
ORGANIZE MORE SHRA AND TSRA BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS. IN THE TIME LEADING UP TO THIS...INSOLATION WILL
LEAD TO A BKN CUMULUS LAYER EVOLVING FROM THE MORE STABLE STRATUS
LATER OF THE EARLY MORNING. CIGS SHUD RUN FROM 4000 AND 6000 FEET
BY LATE MORNING ALL TAF SITES IN A TYPICAL CUMULUS FIELD. SHRA
AND TSRA WILL LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ALL TAF SITES AS
FRONT MOVES THRU...EXCEPT KAVP WHERE WE THINK THE PROBABILITY IS
LOWER THAN 50 PCT.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT AND ASSCTD PRECIP PASSES E BY ARND 20Z...VFR
SCT CUMULUS WITH HIGHER CLOUDS ABOVE SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER
DARK WHEN A MOIST LL NW FLOW GETS ESTABLISHED. THIS LL NW FLOW
WILL BRING DOWN MVFR CIGS TO ALL TAF SITES...EXCEPT KBGM WHERE IT
LIKELY WILL BE IFR LATE IN THE TAF PD. KELM LIKELY WILL REMAIN
ARND 3500 FEET OR SO AND BE CLOSE TO MVFR. THE LOWER CLOUDS AND LL
MOISTURE DON/T QUITE REACH KAVP B4 12Z THU. SO HAVE JUST VFR IN
CLOUDS LATE IN TAF PD THERE.

WINDS WILL BE W-SW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND W-NW THIS
AFTERNOON 8-12 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS...THEN BECOME WEAKER
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DJN/DJP
AVIATION...DJN



000
FXUS61 KBGM 011044
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN IS STILL OVER PARTS OF NEPA AND
SULLIVAN/DELAWARE COUNTIES IN NY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
HERE THROUGH DAYBREAK, AND THUS OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE FOR PART OF THE AREA. AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST THIS
MORNING, WITH IT WILL GO THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES AND THREAT FOR
HEAVIER RAIN.

THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHERN PA
NORTH. WITH A CLEAR SKY AND NEAR CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND OUR
RECENT BOUTS OF RAIN, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RIPE FOR DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH DRIER DAY ACROSS THE AREA. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS UP UNTIL JUST LAST NIGHT,
SHOWED A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER IN NORTHERN
PA/SOUTHERN NY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH DRIER ON THE 0Z RUNS AND
THEREFORE IN COLLABORATION WITH OTHER OFFICES, WILL KEEP THURSDAY
DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND
PROVIDE US WITH A GREAT END TO THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST. JUST
TWEAKED TEMPS, WINDS AND POPS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY.

400 PM UPDATE...
A TROF OVER LOWER ONTARIO WILL PRESS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY,
CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY OVER NY AND
PA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL REBUILD FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING INTO THE 80S. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIR INTO MONDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROF SWINGS INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PLENTY OF LOWER CLOUDS AROUND TAF SITES IN C NY AND NE PA THIS
MORNING WITH PATCHY MVFR AND ISLD IFR RESTRICTIONS. THE IFR WAS
CONFINED TO KBGM ON THE HILL AND IN KAVP WHERE RECENT RAINS HAVE
FELL. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AND
ORGANIZE MORE SHRA AND TSRA BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS. IN THE TIME LEADING UP TO THIS...INSOLATION WILL
LEAD TO A BKN CUMULUS LAYER EVOLVING FROM THE MORE STABLE STRATUS
LATER OF THE EARLY MORNING. CIGS SHUD RUN FROM 4000 AND 6000 FEET
BY LATE MORNING ALL TAF SITES IN A TYPICAL CUMULUS FIELD. SHRA
AND TSRA WILL LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ALL TAF SITES AS
FRONT MOVES THRU...EXCEPT KAVP WHERE WE THINK THE PROBABILITY IS
LOWER THAN 50 PCT.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT AND ASSCTD PRECIP PASSES E BY ARND 20Z...VFR
SCT CUMULUS WITH HIGHER CLOUDS ABOVE SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER
DARK WHEN A MOIST LL NW FLOW GETS ESTABLISHED. THIS LL NW FLOW
WILL BRING DOWN MVFR CIGS TO ALL TAF SITES...EXCEPT KBGM WHERE IT
LIKELY WILL BE IFR LATE IN THE TAF PD. KELM LIKELY WILL REMAIN
ARND 3500 FEET OR SO AND BE CLOSE TO MVFR. THE LOWER CLOUDS AND LL
MOISTURE DON/T QUITE REACH KAVP B4 12Z THU. SO HAVE JUST VFR IN
CLOUDS LATE IN TAF PD THERE.

WINDS WILL BE W-SW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND W-NW THIS
AFTERNOON 8-12 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS...THEN BECOME WEAKER
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DJN/DJP
AVIATION...DJN



000
FXUS61 KALY 011027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 6
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON TODAY. SPECIFICALLY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
INCLUDES GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. FOR THIS MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING. PWATS ACRS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY IN THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE.

THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE MORNING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS.
SOME BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
15-25 KT RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING
INITIALLY AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500
J/KG BASED ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH
ROUGHLY SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEPT MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IF THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT OF IMPACT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 0630Z-0800Z/WED. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME THUNDER...AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS WINDOW...THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIMINISH...BUT IFR CIGS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z-13Z/WED.

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
19Z-22Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AT 5-10 KT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH MAY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND
GUST INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12 KT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AT
8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ058>061-063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 6
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON TODAY. SPECIFICALLY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
INCLUDES GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. FOR THIS MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING. PWATS ACRS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY IN THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE.

THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE MORNING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS.
SOME BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
15-25 KT RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING
INITIALLY AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500
J/KG BASED ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH
ROUGHLY SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEPT MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IF THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT OF IMPACT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 0630Z-0800Z/WED. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME THUNDER...AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS WINDOW...THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIMINISH...BUT IFR CIGS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z-13Z/WED.

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
19Z-22Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AT 5-10 KT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH MAY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND
GUST INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12 KT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AT
8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ058>061-063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010907
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
507 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES UP THE COAST THIS MORNING...WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT/WEAK WAVE...PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...LIFTING NORTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE
ACROSS EASTERN PA AND SOUTHERN NJ THIS MORNING. MAIN THREAT WILL
BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FLASH FLOODING AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.75
INCHES. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR HAVE BEEN DETECTED
ACROSS SE PA. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE TO ADDRESS HAZARD. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND LLJ...CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM...WITH EVEN SOME WEAK ROTATION ALONG WARM
FRONT/WAVE. SOUTHERN CT MAY BE THE PLACE TO WATCH AS THE WARM
FRONTAL/SURFACE WAVE MOVEMENT COINCIDES WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
LATER THIS MORNING AND BUILDING DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT/WAVE...BEST LLJ/MOISTURE AXIS APPEARS TO SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN TERMS OF AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION BEFORE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE. ISO-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...OR ALONG ANY THERMAL OR LINGERING
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN VICINITY OF NYC/NJ METRO AND SW CT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP...IT HAS POTENTIAL TO
BE SEVERE.

THEREAFTER...SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
LATE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE AXIS
IS ALREADY EAST OF THE REGION. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED
ALONG THE LAGGING COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A
DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIRMASS.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN SHORTWAVE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...BUT
A WEAKER BACKSIDE SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH AROUND 00Z.

THEREAFTER...THE REGION WILL BE ON THE SE FRINGE OF MEAN
TROUGHING THU AND FRI AS UPPER LOW SPINS NE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
EASTERN CANADA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT
IN THE EVENING WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHORTWAVE
FORCING...BUT THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER IN THE EVENING IN
WAKE OF SHORTWAVE.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THU AND FRI AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE
IS A LOW PROB OF A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE TRI-STATE THU NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...AND WAVE
TO THE SOUTH MAY MAKE A CLOSE RUN.

TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION THIS MRNG. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THIS EVE.

STRONG TO SVR TSTMS TRACKING THRU THE CITY AS OF 845Z. A LULL
BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY THEN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN AROUND 1500 FT THIS MRNG. SOME SPOTS AROUND
700 FT. SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK
NEWD TIL AROUND 15-17Z WHEN DRY AIR WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SW. THIS
SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR VFR TO DEVELOP QUICKLY. THERE IS A CHC FOR
SHWRS AND/OR TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVE RIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT.
THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS HOWEVER ATTM.

SE FLOW VEERS TO THE SSW THIS MRNG...THEN SW FLOW AFT 15Z. GUST
POTENTIAL GREATEST AFT 17Z. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TNGT BEHIND THE
FRONT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VRB THIS MRNG DUE TO TSTMS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VRB THIS MRNG DUE TO TSTMS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VRB THIS MRNG DUE TO TSTMS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.KTEB
FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VRB THIS MRNG DUE TO TSTMS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF THE ARPT THIS MRNG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE WED NGT...VFR WITH NW FLOW GENERALLY BLW 10KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT W FLOW. SEA BREEZES LIKELY.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS CLOSE
ENOUGH...MVFR OR LWR POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY N.
.SUN...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO MARGINAL SCA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE SUB SCA WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF ANY TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY SHOWER AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FRONT END OF
THE MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH HIGH TIDE APPROACHING THIS MORNING...MINOR URBAN
AND LOW-LYING FLOODING IS EXPECTED...WITH A MODERATE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TRAINING CONVECTION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY
AND WESTERN LI SOUND...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ005-006-009-010.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ067>075-078-080-
     176>179.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO 6
     AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...FIG/NV
HYDROLOGY...FIG/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010907
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
507 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES UP THE COAST THIS MORNING...WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT/WEAK WAVE...PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...LIFTING NORTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE
ACROSS EASTERN PA AND SOUTHERN NJ THIS MORNING. MAIN THREAT WILL
BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FLASH FLOODING AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.75
INCHES. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR HAVE BEEN DETECTED
ACROSS SE PA. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE TO ADDRESS HAZARD. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND LLJ...CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM...WITH EVEN SOME WEAK ROTATION ALONG WARM
FRONT/WAVE. SOUTHERN CT MAY BE THE PLACE TO WATCH AS THE WARM
FRONTAL/SURFACE WAVE MOVEMENT COINCIDES WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
LATER THIS MORNING AND BUILDING DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT/WAVE...BEST LLJ/MOISTURE AXIS APPEARS TO SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN TERMS OF AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION BEFORE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE. ISO-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...OR ALONG ANY THERMAL OR LINGERING
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN VICINITY OF NYC/NJ METRO AND SW CT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP...IT HAS POTENTIAL TO
BE SEVERE.

THEREAFTER...SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
LATE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE AXIS
IS ALREADY EAST OF THE REGION. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED
ALONG THE LAGGING COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A
DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIRMASS.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN SHORTWAVE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...BUT
A WEAKER BACKSIDE SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH AROUND 00Z.

THEREAFTER...THE REGION WILL BE ON THE SE FRINGE OF MEAN
TROUGHING THU AND FRI AS UPPER LOW SPINS NE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
EASTERN CANADA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT
IN THE EVENING WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHORTWAVE
FORCING...BUT THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER IN THE EVENING IN
WAKE OF SHORTWAVE.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THU AND FRI AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE
IS A LOW PROB OF A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE TRI-STATE THU NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...AND WAVE
TO THE SOUTH MAY MAKE A CLOSE RUN.

TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION THIS MRNG. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THIS EVE.

STRONG TO SVR TSTMS TRACKING THRU THE CITY AS OF 845Z. A LULL
BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY THEN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN AROUND 1500 FT THIS MRNG. SOME SPOTS AROUND
700 FT. SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK
NEWD TIL AROUND 15-17Z WHEN DRY AIR WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SW. THIS
SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR VFR TO DEVELOP QUICKLY. THERE IS A CHC FOR
SHWRS AND/OR TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVE RIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT.
THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS HOWEVER ATTM.

SE FLOW VEERS TO THE SSW THIS MRNG...THEN SW FLOW AFT 15Z. GUST
POTENTIAL GREATEST AFT 17Z. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TNGT BEHIND THE
FRONT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VRB THIS MRNG DUE TO TSTMS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VRB THIS MRNG DUE TO TSTMS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VRB THIS MRNG DUE TO TSTMS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.KTEB
FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VRB THIS MRNG DUE TO TSTMS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF THE ARPT THIS MRNG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE WED NGT...VFR WITH NW FLOW GENERALLY BLW 10KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT W FLOW. SEA BREEZES LIKELY.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS CLOSE
ENOUGH...MVFR OR LWR POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY N.
.SUN...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO MARGINAL SCA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE SUB SCA WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF ANY TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY SHOWER AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FRONT END OF
THE MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH HIGH TIDE APPROACHING THIS MORNING...MINOR URBAN
AND LOW-LYING FLOODING IS EXPECTED...WITH A MODERATE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TRAINING CONVECTION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY
AND WESTERN LI SOUND...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ005-006-009-010.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ067>075-078-080-
     176>179.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO 6
     AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...FIG/NV
HYDROLOGY...FIG/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBGM 010831
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
431 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN IS STILL OVER PARTS OF NEPA AND
SULLIVAN/DELAWARE COUNTIES IN NY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
HERE THROUGH DAYBREAK, AND THUS OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE FOR PART OF THE AREA. AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST THIS
MORNING, WITH IT WILL GO THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES AND THREAT FOR
HEAVIER RAIN.

THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHERN PA
NORTH. WITH A CLEAR SKY AND NEAR CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND OUR
RECENT BOUTS OF RAIN, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RIPE FOR DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH DRIER DAY ACROSS THE AREA. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS UP UNTIL JUST LAST NIGHT,
SHOWED A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER IN NORTHERN
PA/SOUTHERN NY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH DRIER ON THE 0Z RUNS AND
THEREFORE IN COLLABORATION WITH OTHER OFFICES, WILL KEEP THURSDAY
DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND
PROVIDE US WITH A GREAT END TO THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST. JUST
TWEAKED TEMPS, WINDS AND POPS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY.

400 PM UPDATE...
A TROF OVER LOWER ONTARIO WILL PRESS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY,
CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY OVER NY AND
PA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL REBUILD FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING INTO THE 80S. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIR INTO MONDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROF SWINGS INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
KAVP WILL STILL EXPERIENCE A COUPLE SMALL TSRA
CLUSTERS...OTHERWISE REMAINS OF EVENING CONVECTION WILL SHUNT
EASTWARD OF THE TERMINALS THE REST OF OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF THAT
CONVECTION...FUEL ALT CIGS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AND
EVEN EVENTUAL IFR KBGM-KELM-KAVP /LIFR KBGM/. IMPROVEMENT WILL
OCCUR 12Z-14Z BUT A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WITH NEW SHRA-
TSRA SHORTLY THEREAFTER LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS
INSERTED FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KAVP WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
LESS...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING SPECIFICS. GENERALLY
SPEAKING FOR WINDS...LIGHT SE OR VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...VEERING SW
IN MORNING THEN W BEHIND COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS INTO
MID TEENS RANGE.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-EARLY THU...EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG POSSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY VALLEYS LIKE KELM.

MID MORNING THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ048.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DJN/DJP
AVIATION...MDP



000
FXUS61 KBGM 010831
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
431 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN IS STILL OVER PARTS OF NEPA AND
SULLIVAN/DELAWARE COUNTIES IN NY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
HERE THROUGH DAYBREAK, AND THUS OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE FOR PART OF THE AREA. AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST THIS
MORNING, WITH IT WILL GO THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES AND THREAT FOR
HEAVIER RAIN.

THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHERN PA
NORTH. WITH A CLEAR SKY AND NEAR CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND OUR
RECENT BOUTS OF RAIN, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RIPE FOR DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH DRIER DAY ACROSS THE AREA. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS UP UNTIL JUST LAST NIGHT,
SHOWED A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER IN NORTHERN
PA/SOUTHERN NY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH DRIER ON THE 0Z RUNS AND
THEREFORE IN COLLABORATION WITH OTHER OFFICES, WILL KEEP THURSDAY
DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND
PROVIDE US WITH A GREAT END TO THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST. JUST
TWEAKED TEMPS, WINDS AND POPS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY.

400 PM UPDATE...
A TROF OVER LOWER ONTARIO WILL PRESS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY,
CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY OVER NY AND
PA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL REBUILD FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING INTO THE 80S. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIR INTO MONDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROF SWINGS INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
KAVP WILL STILL EXPERIENCE A COUPLE SMALL TSRA
CLUSTERS...OTHERWISE REMAINS OF EVENING CONVECTION WILL SHUNT
EASTWARD OF THE TERMINALS THE REST OF OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF THAT
CONVECTION...FUEL ALT CIGS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AND
EVEN EVENTUAL IFR KBGM-KELM-KAVP /LIFR KBGM/. IMPROVEMENT WILL
OCCUR 12Z-14Z BUT A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WITH NEW SHRA-
TSRA SHORTLY THEREAFTER LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS
INSERTED FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KAVP WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
LESS...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING SPECIFICS. GENERALLY
SPEAKING FOR WINDS...LIGHT SE OR VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...VEERING SW
IN MORNING THEN W BEHIND COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS INTO
MID TEENS RANGE.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-EARLY THU...EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG POSSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY VALLEYS LIKE KELM.

MID MORNING THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ048.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DJN/DJP
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 010831
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
431 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN IS STILL OVER PARTS OF NEPA AND
SULLIVAN/DELAWARE COUNTIES IN NY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
HERE THROUGH DAYBREAK, AND THUS OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE FOR PART OF THE AREA. AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST THIS
MORNING, WITH IT WILL GO THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES AND THREAT FOR
HEAVIER RAIN.

THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHERN PA
NORTH. WITH A CLEAR SKY AND NEAR CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND OUR
RECENT BOUTS OF RAIN, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RIPE FOR DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH DRIER DAY ACROSS THE AREA. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS UP UNTIL JUST LAST NIGHT,
SHOWED A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER IN NORTHERN
PA/SOUTHERN NY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH DRIER ON THE 0Z RUNS AND
THEREFORE IN COLLABORATION WITH OTHER OFFICES, WILL KEEP THURSDAY
DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND
PROVIDE US WITH A GREAT END TO THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST. JUST
TWEAKED TEMPS, WINDS AND POPS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY.

400 PM UPDATE...
A TROF OVER LOWER ONTARIO WILL PRESS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY,
CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY OVER NY AND
PA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL REBUILD FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING INTO THE 80S. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIR INTO MONDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROF SWINGS INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
KAVP WILL STILL EXPERIENCE A COUPLE SMALL TSRA
CLUSTERS...OTHERWISE REMAINS OF EVENING CONVECTION WILL SHUNT
EASTWARD OF THE TERMINALS THE REST OF OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF THAT
CONVECTION...FUEL ALT CIGS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AND
EVEN EVENTUAL IFR KBGM-KELM-KAVP /LIFR KBGM/. IMPROVEMENT WILL
OCCUR 12Z-14Z BUT A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WITH NEW SHRA-
TSRA SHORTLY THEREAFTER LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS
INSERTED FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KAVP WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
LESS...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING SPECIFICS. GENERALLY
SPEAKING FOR WINDS...LIGHT SE OR VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...VEERING SW
IN MORNING THEN W BEHIND COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS INTO
MID TEENS RANGE.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-EARLY THU...EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG POSSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY VALLEYS LIKE KELM.

MID MORNING THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ048.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DJN/DJP
AVIATION...MDP



000
FXUS61 KBUF 010816
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
416 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MUGGY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR ONE
MORE DAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL LOWER THE HUMIDITY LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH AIR TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY
MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH.

REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY AN AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY REACHING FAR SW
NYS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO CANADA.

FOR TODAY EXPECT CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS
UPSTREAM VORT MAXES PASS THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. IN ADDITION TO THE LIFT ALOFT GENERATED BY THE EMBEDDED
VORT MAXES...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES RISING TO 300 T0 400 J/KG TO
GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY NOR
DECENT LAPSE RATES/COOLING ALOFT TO PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
AREA LIKELIEST TO HAVE A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES REGION WHERE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST.

A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL FORM LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THIS BREEZE MEETING THE NEARING COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY PRODUCE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...CENTERED NEAR THE ERIE/NIAGARA COUNTY
LINE. ALL ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

AS THIS FRONT PASSES TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
DEWPOINTS MAY LINGER WITHIN THE MID 50S BEFORE FALLING LATE. SOME
PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE...WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HILLS OF SW NYS. A RATHER CLOUDY START TO THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD
WILL HAVE SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR ON A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
REACHES OUR REGION. ANY CLEARING WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND AROUND LAKE ONTARIO...WITH STRATUS CLOUDS
HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE INLAND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR TWO DAYS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW THE MID 70S. TONIGHT AIR TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DESPITE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF NORTH AMERICA...MAINLY PROBLEM-FREE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

THIS TIME FRAME WILL OPEN WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PROVINCE OF QUEBEC. AS THIS FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM
EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE DEEPENING DRY AIR AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE ONLY POSSIBLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION. WHILE H5 TEMPS IN THE MINUS
TEENS C WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
MORE THAN 7 DEG C DURING THE AFTERNOON...FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH DRYING TO ONLY ALLOW FOR SOME ENHANCED MIDDAY/AFTERNOON CU.
WILL MAINTAIN SLGT CHC POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SRN
TIER...BUT THIS IS PROBABLY BEING OVERLY PESSIMISTIC. MEANWHILE...
H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 10C SUPPORTING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
70S.

THE CENTER OF THE WEAK...BUT EXPANSIVE GREAT LAKES SFC HIGH WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WITHIN A
FRESH DRY AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE A COOL NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO TEMPS UNDER STARLIT SKIES WILL DROP INTO
THE LOWER 50S AWAY FROM THE LAKES. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED SRN
TIER VALLEYS AND SITES EAST OF THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY COULD EVEN
BRIEFLY VISIT THE UPPER 40S. THESE READINGS WILL BE SOME 10 DEG F
BELOW TYPICAL EARLY JULY VALUES.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER SUN FILLED DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW COULD ADVECT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SRN TIER TO ENCOURAGE INCREASING CUMULUS CLOUDS FOR
THAT AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...A VERY NICE DAY
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS NOW BEING ADVERTISED BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
PACKAGES TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE COURSE OF
FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INSERT SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AFTER JUST ONE
PESSIMISTIC MODEL RUN. WILL RAISE POPS TO SLGT CHC FOR NOW AND
INCREASE CLOUDS FOR THAT AREA WHILE LEAVING FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE.

FOR SATURDAY...A BROAD BASED TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS HAS BEEN THE CONCERN FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THIS FEATURE COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE SHOWERS...
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THOUGH WOULD BE A FAR CRY FROM THE WASHOUT THAT WE EXPERIENCED THE
PREVIOUS SATURDAY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY EVENING IN TIME FOR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...AS RIDGING OVER
WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN MOVES WILL BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY MONDAY WE SHOULD START
TO SEE READINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 06Z MAINLY VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. THERE CONTINUES SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH THUNDER HAS LARGELY ENDED FROM THE
STORMS OVERNIGHT.

AS TEMPERATURES COOL SOME TO THEIR DEWPOINT SOME IFR/LOW END MVFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS KJHW/KBUF/KIAG LATER
OVERNIGHT.

LATER TODAY WILL FEATURE AGAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES VARYING IN THE
MVFR/VFR FLIGHT RANGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM...BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH
BETTER DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT MAY EVEN TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

AS THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL END SHOWER CHANCES AND
ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUDS. HOWEVER SOME IFR LOW STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE TO HANG OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING THE KJHW
AIRFIELD OVERNIGHT.

A SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 15 KNOTS NE OF
LAKE ERIE BEHIND A LAKE ERIE BREEZE. WINDS WILL VEER TO WESTERLY AND
RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY...WITH A
SOUTHWEST WIND BLOWING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKE WATERS. AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT SOME OF THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20
KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE TODAY AND PRODUCE WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR LAKE ERIE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE UNUSUAL EARLY SUMMER +PNA PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING IS SIMILAR TO THE PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGE OF THE
PAST COUPLE WINTERS. IN FACT...THE CURRENT 6 TO 8 MONTH PATTERN IS
PART OF ONE OF THE STRONGEST +PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST FIVE YEARS.
THE CURRENT LONG TERM PATTERN HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION FOR FIVE OF THE PAST PAST SIX
MONTHS...INCLUDING THE JUST ENDED MONTH OF JUNE THAT AVERAGED
ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES LOWER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
         EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
CLIMATE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010816
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
416 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MUGGY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR ONE
MORE DAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL LOWER THE HUMIDITY LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH AIR TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY
MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH.

REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY AN AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY REACHING FAR SW
NYS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO CANADA.

FOR TODAY EXPECT CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS
UPSTREAM VORT MAXES PASS THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. IN ADDITION TO THE LIFT ALOFT GENERATED BY THE EMBEDDED
VORT MAXES...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES RISING TO 300 T0 400 J/KG TO
GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY NOR
DECENT LAPSE RATES/COOLING ALOFT TO PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
AREA LIKELIEST TO HAVE A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES REGION WHERE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST.

A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL FORM LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THIS BREEZE MEETING THE NEARING COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY PRODUCE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...CENTERED NEAR THE ERIE/NIAGARA COUNTY
LINE. ALL ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

AS THIS FRONT PASSES TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
DEWPOINTS MAY LINGER WITHIN THE MID 50S BEFORE FALLING LATE. SOME
PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE...WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HILLS OF SW NYS. A RATHER CLOUDY START TO THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD
WILL HAVE SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR ON A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
REACHES OUR REGION. ANY CLEARING WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND AROUND LAKE ONTARIO...WITH STRATUS CLOUDS
HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE INLAND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR TWO DAYS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW THE MID 70S. TONIGHT AIR TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DESPITE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF NORTH AMERICA...MAINLY PROBLEM-FREE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

THIS TIME FRAME WILL OPEN WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PROVINCE OF QUEBEC. AS THIS FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM
EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE DEEPENING DRY AIR AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE ONLY POSSIBLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION. WHILE H5 TEMPS IN THE MINUS
TEENS C WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
MORE THAN 7 DEG C DURING THE AFTERNOON...FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH DRYING TO ONLY ALLOW FOR SOME ENHANCED MIDDAY/AFTERNOON CU.
WILL MAINTAIN SLGT CHC POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SRN
TIER...BUT THIS IS PROBABLY BEING OVERLY PESSIMISTIC. MEANWHILE...
H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 10C SUPPORTING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
70S.

THE CENTER OF THE WEAK...BUT EXPANSIVE GREAT LAKES SFC HIGH WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WITHIN A
FRESH DRY AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE A COOL NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO TEMPS UNDER STARLIT SKIES WILL DROP INTO
THE LOWER 50S AWAY FROM THE LAKES. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED SRN
TIER VALLEYS AND SITES EAST OF THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY COULD EVEN
BRIEFLY VISIT THE UPPER 40S. THESE READINGS WILL BE SOME 10 DEG F
BELOW TYPICAL EARLY JULY VALUES.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER SUN FILLED DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW COULD ADVECT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SRN TIER TO ENCOURAGE INCREASING CUMULUS CLOUDS FOR
THAT AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...A VERY NICE DAY
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS NOW BEING ADVERTISED BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
PACKAGES TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE COURSE OF
FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INSERT SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AFTER JUST ONE
PESSIMISTIC MODEL RUN. WILL RAISE POPS TO SLGT CHC FOR NOW AND
INCREASE CLOUDS FOR THAT AREA WHILE LEAVING FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE.

FOR SATURDAY...A BROAD BASED TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS HAS BEEN THE CONCERN FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THIS FEATURE COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE SHOWERS...
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THOUGH WOULD BE A FAR CRY FROM THE WASHOUT THAT WE EXPERIENCED THE
PREVIOUS SATURDAY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY EVENING IN TIME FOR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...AS RIDGING OVER
WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN MOVES WILL BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY MONDAY WE SHOULD START
TO SEE READINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 06Z MAINLY VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. THERE CONTINUES SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH THUNDER HAS LARGELY ENDED FROM THE
STORMS OVERNIGHT.

AS TEMPERATURES COOL SOME TO THEIR DEWPOINT SOME IFR/LOW END MVFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS KJHW/KBUF/KIAG LATER
OVERNIGHT.

LATER TODAY WILL FEATURE AGAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES VARYING IN THE
MVFR/VFR FLIGHT RANGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM...BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH
BETTER DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT MAY EVEN TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

AS THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL END SHOWER CHANCES AND
ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUDS. HOWEVER SOME IFR LOW STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE TO HANG OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING THE KJHW
AIRFIELD OVERNIGHT.

A SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 15 KNOTS NE OF
LAKE ERIE BEHIND A LAKE ERIE BREEZE. WINDS WILL VEER TO WESTERLY AND
RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY...WITH A
SOUTHWEST WIND BLOWING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKE WATERS. AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT SOME OF THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20
KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE TODAY AND PRODUCE WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR LAKE ERIE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE UNUSUAL EARLY SUMMER +PNA PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING IS SIMILAR TO THE PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGE OF THE
PAST COUPLE WINTERS. IN FACT...THE CURRENT 6 TO 8 MONTH PATTERN IS
PART OF ONE OF THE STRONGEST +PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST FIVE YEARS.
THE CURRENT LONG TERM PATTERN HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION FOR FIVE OF THE PAST PAST SIX
MONTHS...INCLUDING THE JUST ENDED MONTH OF JUNE THAT AVERAGED
ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES LOWER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
         EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
CLIMATE...RSH



000
FXUS61 KBGM 010812
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
412 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN IS STILL OVER PARTS OF NEPA AND
SULLIVAN/DELAWARE COUNTIES IN NY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
HERE THROUGH DAYBREAK, AND THUS OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE FOR PART OF THE AREA. AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST THIS
MORNING, WITH IT WILL GO THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES AND THREAT FOR
HEAVIER RAIN.

THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHERN PA
NORTH. WITH A CLEAR SKY AND NEAR CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND OUR
RECENT BOUTS OF RAIN, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RIPE FOR DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH DRIER DAY ACROSS THE AREA. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS UP UNTIL JUST LAST NIGHT,
SHOWED A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER IN NORTHERN
PA/SOUTHERN NY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH DRIER ON THE 0Z RUNS AND
THEREFORE IN COLLABORATION WITH OTHER OFFICES, WILL KEEP THURSDAY
DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND
PROVIDE US WITH A GREAT END TO THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TROF OVER LOWER ONTARIO WILL PRESS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY,
CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY OVER NY AND
PA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL REBUILD FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING INTO THE 80S. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIR INTO MONDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROF SWINGS INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
KAVP WILL STILL EXPERIENCE A COUPLE SMALL TSRA
CLUSTERS...OTHERWISE REMAINS OF EVENING CONVECTION WILL SHUNT
EASTWARD OF THE TERMINALS THE REST OF OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF THAT
CONVECTION...FUEL ALT CIGS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AND
EVEN EVENTUAL IFR KBGM-KELM-KAVP /LIFR KBGM/. IMPROVEMENT WILL
OCCUR 12Z-14Z BUT A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WITH NEW SHRA-
TSRA SHORTLY THEREAFTER LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS
INSERTED FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KAVP WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
LESS...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING SPECIFICS. GENERALLY
SPEAKING FOR WINDS...LIGHT SE OR VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...VEERING SW
IN MORNING THEN W BEHIND COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS INTO
MID TEENS RANGE.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-EARLY THU...EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG POSSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY VALLEYS LIKE KELM.

MID MORNING THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ048.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KALY 010806
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
406 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 6
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON TODAY. SPECIFICALLY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
INCLUDES GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. FOR THIS MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING. PWATS ACRS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY IN THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE.

THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE MORNING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS.
SOME BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
15-25 KT RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING
INITIALLY AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500
J/KG BASED ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH
ROUGHLY SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEPT MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IF THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT OF IMPACT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 0630Z-0800Z/WED. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME THUNDER...AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS WINDOW...THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIMINISH...BUT IFR CIGS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z-13Z/WED.

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
19Z-22Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AT 5-10 KT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH MAY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND
GUST INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12 KT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AT
8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ058>061-063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 010806
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
406 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 6
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON TODAY. SPECIFICALLY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
INCLUDES GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. FOR THIS MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING. PWATS ACRS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY IN THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE.

THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE MORNING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS.
SOME BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
15-25 KT RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING
INITIALLY AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500
J/KG BASED ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH
ROUGHLY SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEPT MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IF THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT OF IMPACT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 0630Z-0800Z/WED. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME THUNDER...AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS WINDOW...THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIMINISH...BUT IFR CIGS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z-13Z/WED.

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
19Z-22Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AT 5-10 KT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH MAY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND
GUST INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12 KT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AT
8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ058>061-063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11



000
FXUS61 KALY 010806
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
406 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 6
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON TODAY. SPECIFICALLY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
INCLUDES GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. FOR THIS MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING. PWATS ACRS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY IN THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE.

THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE MORNING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS.
SOME BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
15-25 KT RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING
INITIALLY AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500
J/KG BASED ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH
ROUGHLY SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEPT MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IF THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT OF IMPACT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 0630Z-0800Z/WED. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME THUNDER...AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS WINDOW...THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIMINISH...BUT IFR CIGS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z-13Z/WED.

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
19Z-22Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AT 5-10 KT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH MAY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND
GUST INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12 KT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AT
8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ058>061-063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010751
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
351 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES UP THE COAST THIS MORNING...WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT/WEAK WAVE...PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...LIFTING NORTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE
ACROSS EASTERN PA AND SOUTHERN NJ THIS MORNING. MAIN THREAT WILL
BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FLASH FLOODING AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.75
INCHES. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR HAVE BEEN DETECTED
ACROSS SE PA. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE TO ADDRESS HAZARD. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND LLJ...CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM...WITH EVEN SOME WEAK ROTATION ALONG WARM
FRONT/WAVE. SOUTHERN CT MAY BE THE PLACE TO WATCH AS THE WARM
FRONTAL/SURFACE WAVE MOVEMENT COINCIDES WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
LATER THIS MORNING AND BUILDING DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT/WAVE...BEST LLJ/MOISTURE AXIS APPEARS TO SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN TERMS OF AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION BEFORE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE. ISO-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...OR ALONG ANY THERMAL OR LINGERING
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN VICINITY OF NYC/NJ METRO AND SW CT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP...IT HAS POTENTIAL TO
BE SEVERE.

THEREAFTER...SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
LATE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE AXIS
IS ALREADY EAST OF THE REGION. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED
ALONG THE LAGGING COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A
DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIRMASS.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MAIN SHORTWAVE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...BUT
A WEAKER BACKSIDE SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH AROUND 00Z.

THEREAFTER...THE REGION WILL BE ON THE SE FRINGE OF MEAN
TROUGHING THU AND FRI AS UPPER LOW SPINS NE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
EASTERN CANADA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT
IN THE EVENING WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHORTWAVE
FORCING...BUT THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER IN THE EVENING IN
WAKE OF SHORTWAVE.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THU AND FRI AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE
IS A LOW PROB OF A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE TRI-STATE THU NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...AND WAVE
TO THE SOUTH MAY MAKE A CLOSE RUN.

TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ON SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT S OF LI WILL PASS THRU THE REGION THIS MRNG. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THIS EVE.

SCT-BKN AROUND 1500 FT THIS MRNG. SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NEWD TIL AROUND 15-17Z WHEN DRY AIR
WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SW. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR VFR TO
DEVELOP QUICKLY. THERE IS A CHC FOR SHWRS AND/OR TSTMS TO DEVELOP
THIS EVE RIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS HOWEVER ATTM.

SE FLOW VEERS TO THE SSW THIS MRNG...THEN SW FLOW AFT 15Z. GUST
POTENTIAL GREATEST AFT 17Z. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TNGT BEHIND THE
FRONT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE WED NGT...VFR WITH NW FLOW GENERALLY BLW 10KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT W FLOW. SEA BREEZES LIKELY.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS CLOSE
ENOUGH...MVFR OR LWR POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY N.
.SUN...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO MARGINAL SCA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE SUB SCA WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF ANY TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY SHOWER AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FRONT END OF
THE MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH HIGH TIDE APPROACHING THIS MORNING...MINOR URBAN
AND LOW-LYING FLOODING IS EXPECTED...WITH A MODERATE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TRAINING CONVECTION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY
AND WESTERN LI SOUND...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ005-006-009-010.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ067>075-078-080-
     176>179.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO 6
     AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...FIG/NV
HYDROLOGY...NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010751
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
351 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES UP THE COAST THIS MORNING...WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT/WEAK WAVE...PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...LIFTING NORTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE
ACROSS EASTERN PA AND SOUTHERN NJ THIS MORNING. MAIN THREAT WILL
BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FLASH FLOODING AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.75
INCHES. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR HAVE BEEN DETECTED
ACROSS SE PA. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE TO ADDRESS HAZARD. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND LLJ...CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM...WITH EVEN SOME WEAK ROTATION ALONG WARM
FRONT/WAVE. SOUTHERN CT MAY BE THE PLACE TO WATCH AS THE WARM
FRONTAL/SURFACE WAVE MOVEMENT COINCIDES WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
LATER THIS MORNING AND BUILDING DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT/WAVE...BEST LLJ/MOISTURE AXIS APPEARS TO SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN TERMS OF AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION BEFORE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE. ISO-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...OR ALONG ANY THERMAL OR LINGERING
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN VICINITY OF NYC/NJ METRO AND SW CT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP...IT HAS POTENTIAL TO
BE SEVERE.

THEREAFTER...SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
LATE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE AXIS
IS ALREADY EAST OF THE REGION. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED
ALONG THE LAGGING COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A
DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIRMASS.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MAIN SHORTWAVE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...BUT
A WEAKER BACKSIDE SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH AROUND 00Z.

THEREAFTER...THE REGION WILL BE ON THE SE FRINGE OF MEAN
TROUGHING THU AND FRI AS UPPER LOW SPINS NE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
EASTERN CANADA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT
IN THE EVENING WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHORTWAVE
FORCING...BUT THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER IN THE EVENING IN
WAKE OF SHORTWAVE.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THU AND FRI AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE
IS A LOW PROB OF A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE TRI-STATE THU NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...AND WAVE
TO THE SOUTH MAY MAKE A CLOSE RUN.

TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ON SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT S OF LI WILL PASS THRU THE REGION THIS MRNG. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THIS EVE.

SCT-BKN AROUND 1500 FT THIS MRNG. SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NEWD TIL AROUND 15-17Z WHEN DRY AIR
WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SW. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR VFR TO
DEVELOP QUICKLY. THERE IS A CHC FOR SHWRS AND/OR TSTMS TO DEVELOP
THIS EVE RIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS HOWEVER ATTM.

SE FLOW VEERS TO THE SSW THIS MRNG...THEN SW FLOW AFT 15Z. GUST
POTENTIAL GREATEST AFT 17Z. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TNGT BEHIND THE
FRONT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE WED NGT...VFR WITH NW FLOW GENERALLY BLW 10KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT W FLOW. SEA BREEZES LIKELY.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS CLOSE
ENOUGH...MVFR OR LWR POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY N.
.SUN...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO MARGINAL SCA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE SUB SCA WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF ANY TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY SHOWER AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FRONT END OF
THE MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH HIGH TIDE APPROACHING THIS MORNING...MINOR URBAN
AND LOW-LYING FLOODING IS EXPECTED...WITH A MODERATE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TRAINING CONVECTION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY
AND WESTERN LI SOUND...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ005-006-009-010.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ067>075-078-080-
     176>179.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO 6
     AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...FIG/NV
HYDROLOGY...NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010751
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
351 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES UP THE COAST THIS MORNING...WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT/WEAK WAVE...PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...LIFTING NORTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE
ACROSS EASTERN PA AND SOUTHERN NJ THIS MORNING. MAIN THREAT WILL
BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FLASH FLOODING AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.75
INCHES. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR HAVE BEEN DETECTED
ACROSS SE PA. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE TO ADDRESS HAZARD. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND LLJ...CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM...WITH EVEN SOME WEAK ROTATION ALONG WARM
FRONT/WAVE. SOUTHERN CT MAY BE THE PLACE TO WATCH AS THE WARM
FRONTAL/SURFACE WAVE MOVEMENT COINCIDES WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
LATER THIS MORNING AND BUILDING DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT/WAVE...BEST LLJ/MOISTURE AXIS APPEARS TO SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN TERMS OF AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION BEFORE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE. ISO-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...OR ALONG ANY THERMAL OR LINGERING
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN VICINITY OF NYC/NJ METRO AND SW CT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP...IT HAS POTENTIAL TO
BE SEVERE.

THEREAFTER...SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
LATE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE AXIS
IS ALREADY EAST OF THE REGION. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED
ALONG THE LAGGING COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A
DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIRMASS.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MAIN SHORTWAVE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...BUT
A WEAKER BACKSIDE SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH AROUND 00Z.

THEREAFTER...THE REGION WILL BE ON THE SE FRINGE OF MEAN
TROUGHING THU AND FRI AS UPPER LOW SPINS NE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
EASTERN CANADA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT
IN THE EVENING WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHORTWAVE
FORCING...BUT THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER IN THE EVENING IN
WAKE OF SHORTWAVE.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THU AND FRI AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE
IS A LOW PROB OF A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE TRI-STATE THU NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...AND WAVE
TO THE SOUTH MAY MAKE A CLOSE RUN.

TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ON SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT S OF LI WILL PASS THRU THE REGION THIS MRNG. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THIS EVE.

SCT-BKN AROUND 1500 FT THIS MRNG. SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NEWD TIL AROUND 15-17Z WHEN DRY AIR
WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SW. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR VFR TO
DEVELOP QUICKLY. THERE IS A CHC FOR SHWRS AND/OR TSTMS TO DEVELOP
THIS EVE RIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS HOWEVER ATTM.

SE FLOW VEERS TO THE SSW THIS MRNG...THEN SW FLOW AFT 15Z. GUST
POTENTIAL GREATEST AFT 17Z. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TNGT BEHIND THE
FRONT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE WED NGT...VFR WITH NW FLOW GENERALLY BLW 10KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT W FLOW. SEA BREEZES LIKELY.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS CLOSE
ENOUGH...MVFR OR LWR POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY N.
.SUN...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO MARGINAL SCA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE SUB SCA WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF ANY TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY SHOWER AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FRONT END OF
THE MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH HIGH TIDE APPROACHING THIS MORNING...MINOR URBAN
AND LOW-LYING FLOODING IS EXPECTED...WITH A MODERATE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TRAINING CONVECTION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY
AND WESTERN LI SOUND...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ005-006-009-010.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ067>075-078-080-
     176>179.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO 6
     AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...FIG/NV
HYDROLOGY...NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010737
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
337 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC TONIGHT...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTH-SOUTH FROM SERN ONTARIO ACROSS ERN OH/WV EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL ACQUIRE SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT TRANSLATES NEWD ACROSS NY
LATE THIS MORNING AND ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATELY
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS (BY EARLY JULY STANDARDS)...CYCLONIC FLOW AND
MID-LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT
APPEARS SHOWERS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN...BUT
PREVAILING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING INFLUENCE OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAKE FORECAST MAX SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY A
BIT UNCERTAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING NAM12/GFS/LOCALLY RUN BTV-4KM WRF INDICATE
SBCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN VT AND
PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG
ACROSS NRN NY. SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 25-30
KTS...SUGGESTING SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IF INSTABILITY CAN
MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST. WOULD ANTICIPATE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS VT...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO...WITH BEST POTENTIAL CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...BUT WILL
DEPEND ON DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS BEST MID-
LEVEL FORCING MOVES THRU CENTRAL VT THIS AFTERNOON. SPC 21Z CALIBRATED
SREF PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS SHOWS SOME LOW POTENTIAL ACROSS
VT THIS AFTN (HIGHEST 18-21Z) AND INITIAL 06Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
CARRIES 5% PROBABILITY OF SVR HAIL/WIND WITHIN 25 MILES OF A
POINT. WILL CARRY MENTION OF SUB-SEVERE WIND IN THE GRIDS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MESOSCALE TRENDS INTO THE DAYLIGHT HRS.

HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60-65F RANGE. GRADIENT FLOW SUPPORTS SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. GUSTS 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN.

HIGHEST POP VALUES GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON (70-90%)...AND THEN
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OUT OF THE AREA. WILL SEE A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WITH A
MODEST ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT PASSING THRU 00-03Z WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE LIFTS OUT NEWD
ACROSS QUEBEC BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. 00Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM IN PREVAILING MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW REGIME...AND
SHOULD YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. IT
WILL FEEL PLEASANT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S
BY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MIXING/INSOLATIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 8-14 MPH 15-23Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +8C AND SUNSHINE SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 1000-500MB MEAN RH VALUES OF 20-30
PERCENT. ALL IN ALL A QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS CONTROLLED BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. WITH MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN WIDE TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRODNACKS AND VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO THE LOW-MID 50S
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (WARMEST NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

CONTINUED PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
MAINTENANCE OF WEAK RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT AND <30% MEAN
1000-500MB RH VALUES. 850MB TEMPS MODERATE SOME TO +10 TO +12C AND
SHOULD SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...BUT WITH CONTINUED LOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR GREATER
UNCERTAINTY ON CHCS FOR PRECIP ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS.
OTHERWISE...EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY.
HAVE CONTINUE TO MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH VERY WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND 5H VORT IN JET WINDS
ALOFT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR NORTHERN ZNS...WITH VERY MINIMAL
INSTABILITY VALUES. HAVE JUST MENTION SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER
ATTM. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MTNS ON SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON SUNDAY...WITH LATEST 00Z GFS
SHOWING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMING CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHCS WHILE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. GFS SHOWS
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH FIELDS...ALONG WITH A DEEPER TROF ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SOME LIFT AND WEAK
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP FCST DRY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY
FROM SFC HEATING AND WEAK INSTABILITY. ANY ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN BY SUNSET WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR BOTH SAT/SUN AND
LOWS IN THE 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO NEAR 60F CPV. MUCH WARMER AIR
ARRIVES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 15C BY 18Z
TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
MENTION TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE LATE TUES
INTO WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NY...WHICH
IS TRACKING TOWARD OUR TAF SITES. EXPECTING RAIN TO ARRIVE BTWN
07Z-09Z...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE. MPV HAS FOG IN
THIS MORNING WITH 1/4SM VIS AND CIGS AT 100 FEET...BUT THINK THIS
FOG WILL LIFT WHEN RAIN ARRIVES BTWN 07Z-08Z. ELSEWHERE...CIGS
WILL CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH MVFR CIGS
LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES BY 12Z THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED AFT 16Z. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND
HEAVY DOWN POURS...WHICH WILL REDUCE VIS BLW 3SM AT TIMES. HAVE
USED A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 16Z AND 19Z TO COVER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTN...WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS OVER
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES...BTV/PBG/RUT/MPV/SLK. SLOW CLEARING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK
BTWN 06Z AND 12Z THURS AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER
POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010737
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
337 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC TONIGHT...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTH-SOUTH FROM SERN ONTARIO ACROSS ERN OH/WV EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL ACQUIRE SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT TRANSLATES NEWD ACROSS NY
LATE THIS MORNING AND ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATELY
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS (BY EARLY JULY STANDARDS)...CYCLONIC FLOW AND
MID-LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT
APPEARS SHOWERS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN...BUT
PREVAILING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING INFLUENCE OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAKE FORECAST MAX SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY A
BIT UNCERTAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING NAM12/GFS/LOCALLY RUN BTV-4KM WRF INDICATE
SBCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN VT AND
PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG
ACROSS NRN NY. SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 25-30
KTS...SUGGESTING SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IF INSTABILITY CAN
MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST. WOULD ANTICIPATE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS VT...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO...WITH BEST POTENTIAL CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...BUT WILL
DEPEND ON DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS BEST MID-
LEVEL FORCING MOVES THRU CENTRAL VT THIS AFTERNOON. SPC 21Z CALIBRATED
SREF PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS SHOWS SOME LOW POTENTIAL ACROSS
VT THIS AFTN (HIGHEST 18-21Z) AND INITIAL 06Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
CARRIES 5% PROBABILITY OF SVR HAIL/WIND WITHIN 25 MILES OF A
POINT. WILL CARRY MENTION OF SUB-SEVERE WIND IN THE GRIDS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MESOSCALE TRENDS INTO THE DAYLIGHT HRS.

HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60-65F RANGE. GRADIENT FLOW SUPPORTS SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. GUSTS 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN.

HIGHEST POP VALUES GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON (70-90%)...AND THEN
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OUT OF THE AREA. WILL SEE A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WITH A
MODEST ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT PASSING THRU 00-03Z WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE LIFTS OUT NEWD
ACROSS QUEBEC BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. 00Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM IN PREVAILING MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW REGIME...AND
SHOULD YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. IT
WILL FEEL PLEASANT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S
BY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MIXING/INSOLATIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 8-14 MPH 15-23Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +8C AND SUNSHINE SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 1000-500MB MEAN RH VALUES OF 20-30
PERCENT. ALL IN ALL A QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS CONTROLLED BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. WITH MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN WIDE TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRODNACKS AND VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO THE LOW-MID 50S
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (WARMEST NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

CONTINUED PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
MAINTENANCE OF WEAK RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT AND <30% MEAN
1000-500MB RH VALUES. 850MB TEMPS MODERATE SOME TO +10 TO +12C AND
SHOULD SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...BUT WITH CONTINUED LOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR GREATER
UNCERTAINTY ON CHCS FOR PRECIP ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS.
OTHERWISE...EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY.
HAVE CONTINUE TO MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH VERY WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND 5H VORT IN JET WINDS
ALOFT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR NORTHERN ZNS...WITH VERY MINIMAL
INSTABILITY VALUES. HAVE JUST MENTION SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER
ATTM. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MTNS ON SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON SUNDAY...WITH LATEST 00Z GFS
SHOWING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMING CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHCS WHILE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. GFS SHOWS
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH FIELDS...ALONG WITH A DEEPER TROF ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SOME LIFT AND WEAK
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP FCST DRY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY
FROM SFC HEATING AND WEAK INSTABILITY. ANY ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN BY SUNSET WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR BOTH SAT/SUN AND
LOWS IN THE 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO NEAR 60F CPV. MUCH WARMER AIR
ARRIVES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 15C BY 18Z
TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
MENTION TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE LATE TUES
INTO WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NY...WHICH
IS TRACKING TOWARD OUR TAF SITES. EXPECTING RAIN TO ARRIVE BTWN
07Z-09Z...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE. MPV HAS FOG IN
THIS MORNING WITH 1/4SM VIS AND CIGS AT 100 FEET...BUT THINK THIS
FOG WILL LIFT WHEN RAIN ARRIVES BTWN 07Z-08Z. ELSEWHERE...CIGS
WILL CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH MVFR CIGS
LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES BY 12Z THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED AFT 16Z. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND
HEAVY DOWN POURS...WHICH WILL REDUCE VIS BLW 3SM AT TIMES. HAVE
USED A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 16Z AND 19Z TO COVER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTN...WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS OVER
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES...BTV/PBG/RUT/MPV/SLK. SLOW CLEARING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK
BTWN 06Z AND 12Z THURS AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER
POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010737
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
337 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC TONIGHT...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTH-SOUTH FROM SERN ONTARIO ACROSS ERN OH/WV EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL ACQUIRE SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT TRANSLATES NEWD ACROSS NY
LATE THIS MORNING AND ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATELY
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS (BY EARLY JULY STANDARDS)...CYCLONIC FLOW AND
MID-LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT
APPEARS SHOWERS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN...BUT
PREVAILING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING INFLUENCE OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAKE FORECAST MAX SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY A
BIT UNCERTAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING NAM12/GFS/LOCALLY RUN BTV-4KM WRF INDICATE
SBCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN VT AND
PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG
ACROSS NRN NY. SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 25-30
KTS...SUGGESTING SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IF INSTABILITY CAN
MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST. WOULD ANTICIPATE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS VT...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO...WITH BEST POTENTIAL CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...BUT WILL
DEPEND ON DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS BEST MID-
LEVEL FORCING MOVES THRU CENTRAL VT THIS AFTERNOON. SPC 21Z CALIBRATED
SREF PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS SHOWS SOME LOW POTENTIAL ACROSS
VT THIS AFTN (HIGHEST 18-21Z) AND INITIAL 06Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
CARRIES 5% PROBABILITY OF SVR HAIL/WIND WITHIN 25 MILES OF A
POINT. WILL CARRY MENTION OF SUB-SEVERE WIND IN THE GRIDS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MESOSCALE TRENDS INTO THE DAYLIGHT HRS.

HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60-65F RANGE. GRADIENT FLOW SUPPORTS SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. GUSTS 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN.

HIGHEST POP VALUES GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON (70-90%)...AND THEN
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OUT OF THE AREA. WILL SEE A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WITH A
MODEST ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT PASSING THRU 00-03Z WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE LIFTS OUT NEWD
ACROSS QUEBEC BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. 00Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM IN PREVAILING MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW REGIME...AND
SHOULD YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. IT
WILL FEEL PLEASANT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S
BY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MIXING/INSOLATIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 8-14 MPH 15-23Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +8C AND SUNSHINE SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 1000-500MB MEAN RH VALUES OF 20-30
PERCENT. ALL IN ALL A QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS CONTROLLED BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. WITH MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN WIDE TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRODNACKS AND VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO THE LOW-MID 50S
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (WARMEST NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

CONTINUED PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
MAINTENANCE OF WEAK RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT AND <30% MEAN
1000-500MB RH VALUES. 850MB TEMPS MODERATE SOME TO +10 TO +12C AND
SHOULD SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...BUT WITH CONTINUED LOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR GREATER
UNCERTAINTY ON CHCS FOR PRECIP ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS.
OTHERWISE...EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY.
HAVE CONTINUE TO MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH VERY WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND 5H VORT IN JET WINDS
ALOFT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR NORTHERN ZNS...WITH VERY MINIMAL
INSTABILITY VALUES. HAVE JUST MENTION SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER
ATTM. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MTNS ON SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON SUNDAY...WITH LATEST 00Z GFS
SHOWING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMING CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHCS WHILE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. GFS SHOWS
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH FIELDS...ALONG WITH A DEEPER TROF ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SOME LIFT AND WEAK
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP FCST DRY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY
FROM SFC HEATING AND WEAK INSTABILITY. ANY ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN BY SUNSET WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR BOTH SAT/SUN AND
LOWS IN THE 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO NEAR 60F CPV. MUCH WARMER AIR
ARRIVES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 15C BY 18Z
TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
MENTION TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE LATE TUES
INTO WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NY...WHICH
IS TRACKING TOWARD OUR TAF SITES. EXPECTING RAIN TO ARRIVE BTWN
07Z-09Z...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE. MPV HAS FOG IN
THIS MORNING WITH 1/4SM VIS AND CIGS AT 100 FEET...BUT THINK THIS
FOG WILL LIFT WHEN RAIN ARRIVES BTWN 07Z-08Z. ELSEWHERE...CIGS
WILL CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH MVFR CIGS
LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES BY 12Z THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED AFT 16Z. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND
HEAVY DOWN POURS...WHICH WILL REDUCE VIS BLW 3SM AT TIMES. HAVE
USED A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 16Z AND 19Z TO COVER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTN...WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS OVER
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES...BTV/PBG/RUT/MPV/SLK. SLOW CLEARING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK
BTWN 06Z AND 12Z THURS AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER
POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010737
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
337 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC TONIGHT...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTH-SOUTH FROM SERN ONTARIO ACROSS ERN OH/WV EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL ACQUIRE SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT TRANSLATES NEWD ACROSS NY
LATE THIS MORNING AND ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATELY
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS (BY EARLY JULY STANDARDS)...CYCLONIC FLOW AND
MID-LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT
APPEARS SHOWERS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN...BUT
PREVAILING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING INFLUENCE OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAKE FORECAST MAX SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY A
BIT UNCERTAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING NAM12/GFS/LOCALLY RUN BTV-4KM WRF INDICATE
SBCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN VT AND
PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG
ACROSS NRN NY. SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 25-30
KTS...SUGGESTING SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IF INSTABILITY CAN
MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST. WOULD ANTICIPATE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS VT...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO...WITH BEST POTENTIAL CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...BUT WILL
DEPEND ON DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS BEST MID-
LEVEL FORCING MOVES THRU CENTRAL VT THIS AFTERNOON. SPC 21Z CALIBRATED
SREF PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS SHOWS SOME LOW POTENTIAL ACROSS
VT THIS AFTN (HIGHEST 18-21Z) AND INITIAL 06Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
CARRIES 5% PROBABILITY OF SVR HAIL/WIND WITHIN 25 MILES OF A
POINT. WILL CARRY MENTION OF SUB-SEVERE WIND IN THE GRIDS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MESOSCALE TRENDS INTO THE DAYLIGHT HRS.

HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60-65F RANGE. GRADIENT FLOW SUPPORTS SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. GUSTS 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN.

HIGHEST POP VALUES GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON (70-90%)...AND THEN
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OUT OF THE AREA. WILL SEE A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WITH A
MODEST ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT PASSING THRU 00-03Z WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE LIFTS OUT NEWD
ACROSS QUEBEC BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. 00Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM IN PREVAILING MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW REGIME...AND
SHOULD YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. IT
WILL FEEL PLEASANT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S
BY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MIXING/INSOLATIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 8-14 MPH 15-23Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +8C AND SUNSHINE SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 1000-500MB MEAN RH VALUES OF 20-30
PERCENT. ALL IN ALL A QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS CONTROLLED BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. WITH MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN WIDE TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRODNACKS AND VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO THE LOW-MID 50S
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (WARMEST NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

CONTINUED PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
MAINTENANCE OF WEAK RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT AND <30% MEAN
1000-500MB RH VALUES. 850MB TEMPS MODERATE SOME TO +10 TO +12C AND
SHOULD SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...BUT WITH CONTINUED LOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR GREATER
UNCERTAINTY ON CHCS FOR PRECIP ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS.
OTHERWISE...EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY.
HAVE CONTINUE TO MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH VERY WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND 5H VORT IN JET WINDS
ALOFT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR NORTHERN ZNS...WITH VERY MINIMAL
INSTABILITY VALUES. HAVE JUST MENTION SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER
ATTM. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MTNS ON SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON SUNDAY...WITH LATEST 00Z GFS
SHOWING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMING CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHCS WHILE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. GFS SHOWS
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH FIELDS...ALONG WITH A DEEPER TROF ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SOME LIFT AND WEAK
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP FCST DRY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY
FROM SFC HEATING AND WEAK INSTABILITY. ANY ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN BY SUNSET WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR BOTH SAT/SUN AND
LOWS IN THE 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO NEAR 60F CPV. MUCH WARMER AIR
ARRIVES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 15C BY 18Z
TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
MENTION TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE LATE TUES
INTO WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NY...WHICH
IS TRACKING TOWARD OUR TAF SITES. EXPECTING RAIN TO ARRIVE BTWN
07Z-09Z...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE. MPV HAS FOG IN
THIS MORNING WITH 1/4SM VIS AND CIGS AT 100 FEET...BUT THINK THIS
FOG WILL LIFT WHEN RAIN ARRIVES BTWN 07Z-08Z. ELSEWHERE...CIGS
WILL CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH MVFR CIGS
LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES BY 12Z THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED AFT 16Z. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND
HEAVY DOWN POURS...WHICH WILL REDUCE VIS BLW 3SM AT TIMES. HAVE
USED A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 16Z AND 19Z TO COVER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTN...WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS OVER
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES...BTV/PBG/RUT/MPV/SLK. SLOW CLEARING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK
BTWN 06Z AND 12Z THURS AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER
POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010737
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
337 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC TONIGHT...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTH-SOUTH FROM SERN ONTARIO ACROSS ERN OH/WV EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL ACQUIRE SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT TRANSLATES NEWD ACROSS NY
LATE THIS MORNING AND ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATELY
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS (BY EARLY JULY STANDARDS)...CYCLONIC FLOW AND
MID-LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT
APPEARS SHOWERS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN...BUT
PREVAILING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING INFLUENCE OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAKE FORECAST MAX SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY A
BIT UNCERTAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING NAM12/GFS/LOCALLY RUN BTV-4KM WRF INDICATE
SBCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN VT AND
PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG
ACROSS NRN NY. SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 25-30
KTS...SUGGESTING SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IF INSTABILITY CAN
MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST. WOULD ANTICIPATE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS VT...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO...WITH BEST POTENTIAL CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...BUT WILL
DEPEND ON DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS BEST MID-
LEVEL FORCING MOVES THRU CENTRAL VT THIS AFTERNOON. SPC 21Z CALIBRATED
SREF PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS SHOWS SOME LOW POTENTIAL ACROSS
VT THIS AFTN (HIGHEST 18-21Z) AND INITIAL 06Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
CARRIES 5% PROBABILITY OF SVR HAIL/WIND WITHIN 25 MILES OF A
POINT. WILL CARRY MENTION OF SUB-SEVERE WIND IN THE GRIDS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MESOSCALE TRENDS INTO THE DAYLIGHT HRS.

HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60-65F RANGE. GRADIENT FLOW SUPPORTS SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. GUSTS 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN.

HIGHEST POP VALUES GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON (70-90%)...AND THEN
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OUT OF THE AREA. WILL SEE A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WITH A
MODEST ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT PASSING THRU 00-03Z WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE LIFTS OUT NEWD
ACROSS QUEBEC BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. 00Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM IN PREVAILING MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW REGIME...AND
SHOULD YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. IT
WILL FEEL PLEASANT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S
BY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MIXING/INSOLATIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 8-14 MPH 15-23Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +8C AND SUNSHINE SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 1000-500MB MEAN RH VALUES OF 20-30
PERCENT. ALL IN ALL A QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS CONTROLLED BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. WITH MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN WIDE TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRODNACKS AND VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO THE LOW-MID 50S
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (WARMEST NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

CONTINUED PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
MAINTENANCE OF WEAK RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT AND <30% MEAN
1000-500MB RH VALUES. 850MB TEMPS MODERATE SOME TO +10 TO +12C AND
SHOULD SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...BUT WITH CONTINUED LOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR GREATER
UNCERTAINTY ON CHCS FOR PRECIP ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS.
OTHERWISE...EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY.
HAVE CONTINUE TO MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH VERY WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND 5H VORT IN JET WINDS
ALOFT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR NORTHERN ZNS...WITH VERY MINIMAL
INSTABILITY VALUES. HAVE JUST MENTION SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER
ATTM. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MTNS ON SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON SUNDAY...WITH LATEST 00Z GFS
SHOWING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMING CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHCS WHILE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. GFS SHOWS
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH FIELDS...ALONG WITH A DEEPER TROF ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SOME LIFT AND WEAK
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP FCST DRY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY
FROM SFC HEATING AND WEAK INSTABILITY. ANY ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN BY SUNSET WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR BOTH SAT/SUN AND
LOWS IN THE 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO NEAR 60F CPV. MUCH WARMER AIR
ARRIVES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 15C BY 18Z
TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
MENTION TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE LATE TUES
INTO WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NY...WHICH
IS TRACKING TOWARD OUR TAF SITES. EXPECTING RAIN TO ARRIVE BTWN
07Z-09Z...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE. MPV HAS FOG IN
THIS MORNING WITH 1/4SM VIS AND CIGS AT 100 FEET...BUT THINK THIS
FOG WILL LIFT WHEN RAIN ARRIVES BTWN 07Z-08Z. ELSEWHERE...CIGS
WILL CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH MVFR CIGS
LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES BY 12Z THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED AFT 16Z. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND
HEAVY DOWN POURS...WHICH WILL REDUCE VIS BLW 3SM AT TIMES. HAVE
USED A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 16Z AND 19Z TO COVER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTN...WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS OVER
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES...BTV/PBG/RUT/MPV/SLK. SLOW CLEARING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK
BTWN 06Z AND 12Z THURS AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER
POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010737
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
337 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC TONIGHT...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTH-SOUTH FROM SERN ONTARIO ACROSS ERN OH/WV EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL ACQUIRE SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT TRANSLATES NEWD ACROSS NY
LATE THIS MORNING AND ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATELY
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS (BY EARLY JULY STANDARDS)...CYCLONIC FLOW AND
MID-LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT
APPEARS SHOWERS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN...BUT
PREVAILING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING INFLUENCE OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAKE FORECAST MAX SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY A
BIT UNCERTAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING NAM12/GFS/LOCALLY RUN BTV-4KM WRF INDICATE
SBCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN VT AND
PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG
ACROSS NRN NY. SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 25-30
KTS...SUGGESTING SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IF INSTABILITY CAN
MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST. WOULD ANTICIPATE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS VT...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO...WITH BEST POTENTIAL CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...BUT WILL
DEPEND ON DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS BEST MID-
LEVEL FORCING MOVES THRU CENTRAL VT THIS AFTERNOON. SPC 21Z CALIBRATED
SREF PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS SHOWS SOME LOW POTENTIAL ACROSS
VT THIS AFTN (HIGHEST 18-21Z) AND INITIAL 06Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
CARRIES 5% PROBABILITY OF SVR HAIL/WIND WITHIN 25 MILES OF A
POINT. WILL CARRY MENTION OF SUB-SEVERE WIND IN THE GRIDS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MESOSCALE TRENDS INTO THE DAYLIGHT HRS.

HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60-65F RANGE. GRADIENT FLOW SUPPORTS SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. GUSTS 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN.

HIGHEST POP VALUES GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON (70-90%)...AND THEN
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OUT OF THE AREA. WILL SEE A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WITH A
MODEST ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT PASSING THRU 00-03Z WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE LIFTS OUT NEWD
ACROSS QUEBEC BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. 00Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM IN PREVAILING MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW REGIME...AND
SHOULD YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. IT
WILL FEEL PLEASANT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S
BY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MIXING/INSOLATIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 8-14 MPH 15-23Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +8C AND SUNSHINE SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 1000-500MB MEAN RH VALUES OF 20-30
PERCENT. ALL IN ALL A QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS CONTROLLED BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. WITH MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN WIDE TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRODNACKS AND VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO THE LOW-MID 50S
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (WARMEST NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

CONTINUED PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
MAINTENANCE OF WEAK RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT AND <30% MEAN
1000-500MB RH VALUES. 850MB TEMPS MODERATE SOME TO +10 TO +12C AND
SHOULD SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...BUT WITH CONTINUED LOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR GREATER
UNCERTAINTY ON CHCS FOR PRECIP ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS.
OTHERWISE...EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY.
HAVE CONTINUE TO MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH VERY WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND 5H VORT IN JET WINDS
ALOFT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR NORTHERN ZNS...WITH VERY MINIMAL
INSTABILITY VALUES. HAVE JUST MENTION SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER
ATTM. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MTNS ON SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON SUNDAY...WITH LATEST 00Z GFS
SHOWING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMING CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHCS WHILE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. GFS SHOWS
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH FIELDS...ALONG WITH A DEEPER TROF ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SOME LIFT AND WEAK
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP FCST DRY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY
FROM SFC HEATING AND WEAK INSTABILITY. ANY ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN BY SUNSET WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR BOTH SAT/SUN AND
LOWS IN THE 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO NEAR 60F CPV. MUCH WARMER AIR
ARRIVES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 15C BY 18Z
TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
MENTION TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE LATE TUES
INTO WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NY...WHICH
IS TRACKING TOWARD OUR TAF SITES. EXPECTING RAIN TO ARRIVE BTWN
07Z-09Z...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE. MPV HAS FOG IN
THIS MORNING WITH 1/4SM VIS AND CIGS AT 100 FEET...BUT THINK THIS
FOG WILL LIFT WHEN RAIN ARRIVES BTWN 07Z-08Z. ELSEWHERE...CIGS
WILL CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH MVFR CIGS
LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES BY 12Z THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED AFT 16Z. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND
HEAVY DOWN POURS...WHICH WILL REDUCE VIS BLW 3SM AT TIMES. HAVE
USED A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 16Z AND 19Z TO COVER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTN...WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS OVER
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES...BTV/PBG/RUT/MPV/SLK. SLOW CLEARING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK
BTWN 06Z AND 12Z THURS AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER
POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010722
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC TONIGHT...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTH-SOUTH FROM SERN ONTARIO ACROSS ERN OH/WV EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL ACQUIRE SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT TRANSLATES NEWD ACROSS NY
LATE THIS MORNING AND ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATELY
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS (BY EARLY JULY STANDARDS)...CYCLONIC FLOW AND
MID-LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT
APPEARS SHOWERS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN...BUT
PREVAILING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING INFLUENCE OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAKE FORECAST MAX SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY A
BIT UNCERTAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING NAM12/GFS/LOCALLY RUN BTV-4KM WRF INDICATE
SBCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN VT AND
PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG
ACROSS NRN NY. SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 25-30
KTS...SUGGESTING SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IF INSTABILITY CAN
MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST. WOULD ANTICIPATE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS VT...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO...WITH BEST POTENTIAL CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...BUT WILL
DEPEND ON DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS BEST MID-
LEVEL FORCING MOVES THRU CENTRAL VT THIS AFTERNOON. SPC 21Z CALIBRATED
SREF PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS SHOWS SOME LOW POTENTIAL ACROSS
VT THIS AFTN (HIGHEST 18-21Z) AND INITIAL 06Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
CARRIES 5% PROBABILITY OF SVR HAIL/WIND WITHIN 25 MILES OF A
POINT. WILL CARRY MENTION OF SUB-SEVERE WIND IN THE GRIDS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MESOSCALE TRENDS INTO THE DAYLIGHT HRS.

HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60-65F RANGE. GRADIENT FLOW SUPPORTS SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. GUSTS 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN.

HIGHEST POP VALUES GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON (70-90%)...AND THEN
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OUT OF THE AREA. WILL SEE A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WITH A
MODEST ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT PASSING THRU 00-03Z WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE LIFTS OUT NEWD
ACROSS QUEBEC BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. 00Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM IN PREVAILING MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW REGIME...AND
SHOULD YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. IT
WILL FEEL PLEASANT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S
BY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MIXING/INSOLATIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 8-14 MPH 15-23Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +8C AND SUNSHINE SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 1000-500MB MEAN RH VALUES OF 20-30
PERCENT. ALL IN ALL A QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS CONTROLLED BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. WITH MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN WIDE TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRODNACKS AND VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO THE LOW-MID 50S
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (WARMEST NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

CONTINUED PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
MAINTENANCE OF WEAK RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT AND <30% MEAN
1000-500MB RH VALUES. 850MB TEMPS MODERATE SOME TO +10 TO +12C AND
SHOULD SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...BUT WITH CONTINUED LOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NY...WHICH
IS TRACKING TOWARD OUR TAF SITES. EXPECTING RAIN TO ARRIVE BTWN
07Z-09Z...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE. MPV HAS FOG IN
THIS MORNING WITH 1/4SM VIS AND CIGS AT 100 FEET...BUT THINK THIS
FOG WILL LIFT WHEN RAIN ARRIVES BTWN 07Z-08Z. ELSEWHERE...CIGS
WILL CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH MVFR CIGS
LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES BY 12Z THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED AFT 16Z. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND
HEAVY DOWN POURS...WHICH WILL REDUCE VIS BLW 3SM AT TIMES. HAVE
USED A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 16Z AND 19Z TO COVER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTN...WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS OVER
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES...BTV/PBG/RUT/MPV/SLK. SLOW CLEARING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK
BTWN 06Z AND 12Z THURS AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER
POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010722
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC TONIGHT...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTH-SOUTH FROM SERN ONTARIO ACROSS ERN OH/WV EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL ACQUIRE SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT TRANSLATES NEWD ACROSS NY
LATE THIS MORNING AND ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATELY
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS (BY EARLY JULY STANDARDS)...CYCLONIC FLOW AND
MID-LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT
APPEARS SHOWERS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN...BUT
PREVAILING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING INFLUENCE OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAKE FORECAST MAX SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY A
BIT UNCERTAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING NAM12/GFS/LOCALLY RUN BTV-4KM WRF INDICATE
SBCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN VT AND
PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG
ACROSS NRN NY. SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 25-30
KTS...SUGGESTING SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IF INSTABILITY CAN
MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST. WOULD ANTICIPATE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS VT...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO...WITH BEST POTENTIAL CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...BUT WILL
DEPEND ON DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS BEST MID-
LEVEL FORCING MOVES THRU CENTRAL VT THIS AFTERNOON. SPC 21Z CALIBRATED
SREF PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS SHOWS SOME LOW POTENTIAL ACROSS
VT THIS AFTN (HIGHEST 18-21Z) AND INITIAL 06Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
CARRIES 5% PROBABILITY OF SVR HAIL/WIND WITHIN 25 MILES OF A
POINT. WILL CARRY MENTION OF SUB-SEVERE WIND IN THE GRIDS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MESOSCALE TRENDS INTO THE DAYLIGHT HRS.

HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60-65F RANGE. GRADIENT FLOW SUPPORTS SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. GUSTS 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN.

HIGHEST POP VALUES GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON (70-90%)...AND THEN
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OUT OF THE AREA. WILL SEE A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WITH A
MODEST ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT PASSING THRU 00-03Z WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE LIFTS OUT NEWD
ACROSS QUEBEC BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. 00Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM IN PREVAILING MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW REGIME...AND
SHOULD YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. IT
WILL FEEL PLEASANT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S
BY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MIXING/INSOLATIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 8-14 MPH 15-23Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +8C AND SUNSHINE SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 1000-500MB MEAN RH VALUES OF 20-30
PERCENT. ALL IN ALL A QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS CONTROLLED BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. WITH MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN WIDE TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRODNACKS AND VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO THE LOW-MID 50S
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (WARMEST NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

CONTINUED PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
MAINTENANCE OF WEAK RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT AND <30% MEAN
1000-500MB RH VALUES. 850MB TEMPS MODERATE SOME TO +10 TO +12C AND
SHOULD SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...BUT WITH CONTINUED LOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NY...WHICH
IS TRACKING TOWARD OUR TAF SITES. EXPECTING RAIN TO ARRIVE BTWN
07Z-09Z...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE. MPV HAS FOG IN
THIS MORNING WITH 1/4SM VIS AND CIGS AT 100 FEET...BUT THINK THIS
FOG WILL LIFT WHEN RAIN ARRIVES BTWN 07Z-08Z. ELSEWHERE...CIGS
WILL CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH MVFR CIGS
LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES BY 12Z THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED AFT 16Z. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND
HEAVY DOWN POURS...WHICH WILL REDUCE VIS BLW 3SM AT TIMES. HAVE
USED A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 16Z AND 19Z TO COVER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTN...WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS OVER
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES...BTV/PBG/RUT/MPV/SLK. SLOW CLEARING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK
BTWN 06Z AND 12Z THURS AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER
POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBGM 010550
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
150 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
THINGS ACTUALLY TURNED FAIRLY ACTIVE THE LAST FEW HOURS DESPITE
EXPIRATION OF THE SVR WATCH...ESPECIALLY REGARDING LOCALIZED
FLOODING. SYRACUSE AREA THROUGH NORTHEASTERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IN
PARTICULAR HAS HAD REPEATED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS/BACKBUILDING...2-3
BATCHES DEPENDING ON LOCATION...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN FLASH
FLOODING. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WATER MAKING ROADS IMPASSABLE...CARS
STUCK IN WATER...WATER IN BASEMENTS AND THE LIKE WHICH IS COMMON
WHEN HEAVY RAIN STRIKES AND URBANIZED AREA. HEAVY RAIN HAS
OCCURRED ELSEWHERE IN OUR REGION AS WELL BUT PROBLEMS MUCH MORE
LOCALIZED AND MINOR. FINALLY...STORMS HAVE IGNITED IN WYOMING-
LUZERNE COUNTIES IN PA HEADING INTO LACKAWANNA...WHICH APPEARS TO
HAVE GONE SEVERE. WARNING UNTIL 1130 PM THERE DUE TO EXPECTED
GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THINGS WILL WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THINGS CAREFULLY THE NEXT 24 HRS SINCE ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR AREAS THAT JUST
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN.

645 PM UPDATE...
SVR TSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 8PM FOR NEPA AND SULLIVAN CO
NY...THOUGH AT THIS POINT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL /ESPECIALLY
PIKE COUNTY/ APPEARS TO THE BE MORE OF A CONCERN. IT IS LIKELY
THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THE WATCH AT 8PM AS
SCHEDULED...MEANWHILE...WE ALREADY HAVE A STATEMENT OUT FOR PIKE
COUNTY REGARDING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THAT AREA.

FURTHER NORTH...CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRETTY WIDELY SCATTERED THOUGH
WE DO HAVE A HEAVY RAINER CARRYING ACROSS NORTHERN ONONDAGA AT
THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...WELL MARKED WAVE NOW IN WESTERN PA WILL
MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 10PM-2AM TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS-EMBEDDED
THUNDER. IF THINGS HOLD TOGETHER...AS MENTIONED BELOW...SHORT
FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE NECESSARY FOR AREAS ALREADY
GETTING DECENT RAIN BEFOREHAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 PM...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE ERN
CWA FROM THE VCNTY OF SYR DOWN THROUGH THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION INTO
NE PA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST THROUGH EVENING.
ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY IS WIDESPREAD WITH JUST
SCATTERED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
BEST ACROSS NE PA AND SRN NY WHERE THE WATCH CURRENTLY RESIDES. BY
EARLY EVENING INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BOTH DECREASE,
REDUCING THE THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER. A MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH OHIO WILL LIFT NE AND ACROSS THE FA LATER THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE EVENING. DUE TO RECENT WET WEATHER IF THIS SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION TAKES AIM AT NE PA A SHORT FUSE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED.

ON WEDNESDAY...H5 TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FA
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON PERIOD. WIDESPREAD TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS BEST FROM I81 EAST WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE THE
LONGEST TIME TO DESTABILIZE. BULK SHEAR VALUES AND MID LEVEL FLOW
NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS TODAY BUT STORMS MAINLY EAST OF I81 COULD
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE THROUGH THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
OVER THE FA BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. THURSDAY WILL BE
COOL UNDER NW FLOW AND MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CNTRL
NY AND MID/UPR 70S OVER NE PA. ON FRIDAY, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TROF OVER LOWER ONTARIO WILL PRESS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY,
CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY OVER NY AND
PA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL REBUILD FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING INTO THE 80S. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIR INTO MONDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROF SWINGS INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
KAVP WILL STILL EXPERIENCE A COUPLE SMALL TSRA
CLUSTERS...OTHERWISE REMAINS OF EVENING CONVECTION WILL SHUNT
EASTWARD OF THE TERMINALS THE REST OF OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF THAT
CONVECTION...FUEL ALT CIGS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AND
EVEN EVENTUAL IFR KBGM-KELM-KAVP /LIFR KBGM/. IMPROVEMENT WILL
OCCUR 12Z-14Z BUT A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WITH NEW SHRA-
TSRA SHORTLY THEREAFTER LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS
INSERTED FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KAVP WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
LESS...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING SPECIFICS. GENERALLY
SPEAKING FOR WINDS...LIGHT SE OR VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...VEERING SW
IN MORNING THEN W BEHIND COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS INTO
MID TEENS RANGE.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-EARLY THU...EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG POSSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY VALLEYS LIKE KELM.

MID MORNING THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ048.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 010550
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
150 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
THINGS ACTUALLY TURNED FAIRLY ACTIVE THE LAST FEW HOURS DESPITE
EXPIRATION OF THE SVR WATCH...ESPECIALLY REGARDING LOCALIZED
FLOODING. SYRACUSE AREA THROUGH NORTHEASTERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IN
PARTICULAR HAS HAD REPEATED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS/BACKBUILDING...2-3
BATCHES DEPENDING ON LOCATION...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN FLASH
FLOODING. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WATER MAKING ROADS IMPASSABLE...CARS
STUCK IN WATER...WATER IN BASEMENTS AND THE LIKE WHICH IS COMMON
WHEN HEAVY RAIN STRIKES AND URBANIZED AREA. HEAVY RAIN HAS
OCCURRED ELSEWHERE IN OUR REGION AS WELL BUT PROBLEMS MUCH MORE
LOCALIZED AND MINOR. FINALLY...STORMS HAVE IGNITED IN WYOMING-
LUZERNE COUNTIES IN PA HEADING INTO LACKAWANNA...WHICH APPEARS TO
HAVE GONE SEVERE. WARNING UNTIL 1130 PM THERE DUE TO EXPECTED
GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THINGS WILL WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THINGS CAREFULLY THE NEXT 24 HRS SINCE ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR AREAS THAT JUST
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN.

645 PM UPDATE...
SVR TSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 8PM FOR NEPA AND SULLIVAN CO
NY...THOUGH AT THIS POINT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL /ESPECIALLY
PIKE COUNTY/ APPEARS TO THE BE MORE OF A CONCERN. IT IS LIKELY
THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THE WATCH AT 8PM AS
SCHEDULED...MEANWHILE...WE ALREADY HAVE A STATEMENT OUT FOR PIKE
COUNTY REGARDING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THAT AREA.

FURTHER NORTH...CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRETTY WIDELY SCATTERED THOUGH
WE DO HAVE A HEAVY RAINER CARRYING ACROSS NORTHERN ONONDAGA AT
THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...WELL MARKED WAVE NOW IN WESTERN PA WILL
MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 10PM-2AM TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS-EMBEDDED
THUNDER. IF THINGS HOLD TOGETHER...AS MENTIONED BELOW...SHORT
FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE NECESSARY FOR AREAS ALREADY
GETTING DECENT RAIN BEFOREHAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 PM...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE ERN
CWA FROM THE VCNTY OF SYR DOWN THROUGH THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION INTO
NE PA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST THROUGH EVENING.
ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY IS WIDESPREAD WITH JUST
SCATTERED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
BEST ACROSS NE PA AND SRN NY WHERE THE WATCH CURRENTLY RESIDES. BY
EARLY EVENING INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BOTH DECREASE,
REDUCING THE THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER. A MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH OHIO WILL LIFT NE AND ACROSS THE FA LATER THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE EVENING. DUE TO RECENT WET WEATHER IF THIS SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION TAKES AIM AT NE PA A SHORT FUSE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED.

ON WEDNESDAY...H5 TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FA
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON PERIOD. WIDESPREAD TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS BEST FROM I81 EAST WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE THE
LONGEST TIME TO DESTABILIZE. BULK SHEAR VALUES AND MID LEVEL FLOW
NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS TODAY BUT STORMS MAINLY EAST OF I81 COULD
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE THROUGH THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
OVER THE FA BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. THURSDAY WILL BE
COOL UNDER NW FLOW AND MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CNTRL
NY AND MID/UPR 70S OVER NE PA. ON FRIDAY, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TROF OVER LOWER ONTARIO WILL PRESS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY,
CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY OVER NY AND
PA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL REBUILD FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING INTO THE 80S. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIR INTO MONDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROF SWINGS INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
KAVP WILL STILL EXPERIENCE A COUPLE SMALL TSRA
CLUSTERS...OTHERWISE REMAINS OF EVENING CONVECTION WILL SHUNT
EASTWARD OF THE TERMINALS THE REST OF OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF THAT
CONVECTION...FUEL ALT CIGS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AND
EVEN EVENTUAL IFR KBGM-KELM-KAVP /LIFR KBGM/. IMPROVEMENT WILL
OCCUR 12Z-14Z BUT A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WITH NEW SHRA-
TSRA SHORTLY THEREAFTER LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS
INSERTED FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KAVP WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
LESS...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING SPECIFICS. GENERALLY
SPEAKING FOR WINDS...LIGHT SE OR VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...VEERING SW
IN MORNING THEN W BEHIND COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS INTO
MID TEENS RANGE.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-EARLY THU...EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG POSSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY VALLEYS LIKE KELM.

MID MORNING THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ048.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MDP



000
FXUS61 KBGM 010550
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
150 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
THINGS ACTUALLY TURNED FAIRLY ACTIVE THE LAST FEW HOURS DESPITE
EXPIRATION OF THE SVR WATCH...ESPECIALLY REGARDING LOCALIZED
FLOODING. SYRACUSE AREA THROUGH NORTHEASTERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IN
PARTICULAR HAS HAD REPEATED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS/BACKBUILDING...2-3
BATCHES DEPENDING ON LOCATION...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN FLASH
FLOODING. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WATER MAKING ROADS IMPASSABLE...CARS
STUCK IN WATER...WATER IN BASEMENTS AND THE LIKE WHICH IS COMMON
WHEN HEAVY RAIN STRIKES AND URBANIZED AREA. HEAVY RAIN HAS
OCCURRED ELSEWHERE IN OUR REGION AS WELL BUT PROBLEMS MUCH MORE
LOCALIZED AND MINOR. FINALLY...STORMS HAVE IGNITED IN WYOMING-
LUZERNE COUNTIES IN PA HEADING INTO LACKAWANNA...WHICH APPEARS TO
HAVE GONE SEVERE. WARNING UNTIL 1130 PM THERE DUE TO EXPECTED
GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THINGS WILL WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THINGS CAREFULLY THE NEXT 24 HRS SINCE ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR AREAS THAT JUST
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN.

645 PM UPDATE...
SVR TSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 8PM FOR NEPA AND SULLIVAN CO
NY...THOUGH AT THIS POINT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL /ESPECIALLY
PIKE COUNTY/ APPEARS TO THE BE MORE OF A CONCERN. IT IS LIKELY
THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THE WATCH AT 8PM AS
SCHEDULED...MEANWHILE...WE ALREADY HAVE A STATEMENT OUT FOR PIKE
COUNTY REGARDING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THAT AREA.

FURTHER NORTH...CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRETTY WIDELY SCATTERED THOUGH
WE DO HAVE A HEAVY RAINER CARRYING ACROSS NORTHERN ONONDAGA AT
THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...WELL MARKED WAVE NOW IN WESTERN PA WILL
MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 10PM-2AM TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS-EMBEDDED
THUNDER. IF THINGS HOLD TOGETHER...AS MENTIONED BELOW...SHORT
FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE NECESSARY FOR AREAS ALREADY
GETTING DECENT RAIN BEFOREHAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 PM...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE ERN
CWA FROM THE VCNTY OF SYR DOWN THROUGH THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION INTO
NE PA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST THROUGH EVENING.
ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY IS WIDESPREAD WITH JUST
SCATTERED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
BEST ACROSS NE PA AND SRN NY WHERE THE WATCH CURRENTLY RESIDES. BY
EARLY EVENING INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BOTH DECREASE,
REDUCING THE THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER. A MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH OHIO WILL LIFT NE AND ACROSS THE FA LATER THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE EVENING. DUE TO RECENT WET WEATHER IF THIS SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION TAKES AIM AT NE PA A SHORT FUSE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED.

ON WEDNESDAY...H5 TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FA
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON PERIOD. WIDESPREAD TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS BEST FROM I81 EAST WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE THE
LONGEST TIME TO DESTABILIZE. BULK SHEAR VALUES AND MID LEVEL FLOW
NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS TODAY BUT STORMS MAINLY EAST OF I81 COULD
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE THROUGH THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
OVER THE FA BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. THURSDAY WILL BE
COOL UNDER NW FLOW AND MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CNTRL
NY AND MID/UPR 70S OVER NE PA. ON FRIDAY, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TROF OVER LOWER ONTARIO WILL PRESS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY,
CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY OVER NY AND
PA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL REBUILD FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING INTO THE 80S. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIR INTO MONDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROF SWINGS INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
KAVP WILL STILL EXPERIENCE A COUPLE SMALL TSRA
CLUSTERS...OTHERWISE REMAINS OF EVENING CONVECTION WILL SHUNT
EASTWARD OF THE TERMINALS THE REST OF OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF THAT
CONVECTION...FUEL ALT CIGS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AND
EVEN EVENTUAL IFR KBGM-KELM-KAVP /LIFR KBGM/. IMPROVEMENT WILL
OCCUR 12Z-14Z BUT A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WITH NEW SHRA-
TSRA SHORTLY THEREAFTER LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS
INSERTED FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KAVP WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
LESS...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING SPECIFICS. GENERALLY
SPEAKING FOR WINDS...LIGHT SE OR VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...VEERING SW
IN MORNING THEN W BEHIND COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS INTO
MID TEENS RANGE.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-EARLY THU...EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG POSSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY VALLEYS LIKE KELM.

MID MORNING THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ048.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MDP



000
FXUS61 KBGM 010550
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
150 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
THINGS ACTUALLY TURNED FAIRLY ACTIVE THE LAST FEW HOURS DESPITE
EXPIRATION OF THE SVR WATCH...ESPECIALLY REGARDING LOCALIZED
FLOODING. SYRACUSE AREA THROUGH NORTHEASTERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IN
PARTICULAR HAS HAD REPEATED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS/BACKBUILDING...2-3
BATCHES DEPENDING ON LOCATION...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN FLASH
FLOODING. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WATER MAKING ROADS IMPASSABLE...CARS
STUCK IN WATER...WATER IN BASEMENTS AND THE LIKE WHICH IS COMMON
WHEN HEAVY RAIN STRIKES AND URBANIZED AREA. HEAVY RAIN HAS
OCCURRED ELSEWHERE IN OUR REGION AS WELL BUT PROBLEMS MUCH MORE
LOCALIZED AND MINOR. FINALLY...STORMS HAVE IGNITED IN WYOMING-
LUZERNE COUNTIES IN PA HEADING INTO LACKAWANNA...WHICH APPEARS TO
HAVE GONE SEVERE. WARNING UNTIL 1130 PM THERE DUE TO EXPECTED
GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THINGS WILL WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THINGS CAREFULLY THE NEXT 24 HRS SINCE ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR AREAS THAT JUST
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN.

645 PM UPDATE...
SVR TSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 8PM FOR NEPA AND SULLIVAN CO
NY...THOUGH AT THIS POINT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL /ESPECIALLY
PIKE COUNTY/ APPEARS TO THE BE MORE OF A CONCERN. IT IS LIKELY
THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THE WATCH AT 8PM AS
SCHEDULED...MEANWHILE...WE ALREADY HAVE A STATEMENT OUT FOR PIKE
COUNTY REGARDING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THAT AREA.

FURTHER NORTH...CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRETTY WIDELY SCATTERED THOUGH
WE DO HAVE A HEAVY RAINER CARRYING ACROSS NORTHERN ONONDAGA AT
THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...WELL MARKED WAVE NOW IN WESTERN PA WILL
MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 10PM-2AM TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS-EMBEDDED
THUNDER. IF THINGS HOLD TOGETHER...AS MENTIONED BELOW...SHORT
FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE NECESSARY FOR AREAS ALREADY
GETTING DECENT RAIN BEFOREHAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 PM...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE ERN
CWA FROM THE VCNTY OF SYR DOWN THROUGH THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION INTO
NE PA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST THROUGH EVENING.
ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY IS WIDESPREAD WITH JUST
SCATTERED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
BEST ACROSS NE PA AND SRN NY WHERE THE WATCH CURRENTLY RESIDES. BY
EARLY EVENING INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BOTH DECREASE,
REDUCING THE THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER. A MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH OHIO WILL LIFT NE AND ACROSS THE FA LATER THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE EVENING. DUE TO RECENT WET WEATHER IF THIS SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION TAKES AIM AT NE PA A SHORT FUSE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED.

ON WEDNESDAY...H5 TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FA
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON PERIOD. WIDESPREAD TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS BEST FROM I81 EAST WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE THE
LONGEST TIME TO DESTABILIZE. BULK SHEAR VALUES AND MID LEVEL FLOW
NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS TODAY BUT STORMS MAINLY EAST OF I81 COULD
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE THROUGH THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
OVER THE FA BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. THURSDAY WILL BE
COOL UNDER NW FLOW AND MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CNTRL
NY AND MID/UPR 70S OVER NE PA. ON FRIDAY, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TROF OVER LOWER ONTARIO WILL PRESS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY,
CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY OVER NY AND
PA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL REBUILD FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING INTO THE 80S. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIR INTO MONDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROF SWINGS INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
KAVP WILL STILL EXPERIENCE A COUPLE SMALL TSRA
CLUSTERS...OTHERWISE REMAINS OF EVENING CONVECTION WILL SHUNT
EASTWARD OF THE TERMINALS THE REST OF OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF THAT
CONVECTION...FUEL ALT CIGS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AND
EVEN EVENTUAL IFR KBGM-KELM-KAVP /LIFR KBGM/. IMPROVEMENT WILL
OCCUR 12Z-14Z BUT A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WITH NEW SHRA-
TSRA SHORTLY THEREAFTER LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS
INSERTED FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KAVP WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
LESS...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING SPECIFICS. GENERALLY
SPEAKING FOR WINDS...LIGHT SE OR VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...VEERING SW
IN MORNING THEN W BEHIND COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS INTO
MID TEENS RANGE.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-EARLY THU...EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG POSSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY VALLEYS LIKE KELM.

MID MORNING THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ048.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MDP



000
FXUS61 KBGM 010550
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
150 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
THINGS ACTUALLY TURNED FAIRLY ACTIVE THE LAST FEW HOURS DESPITE
EXPIRATION OF THE SVR WATCH...ESPECIALLY REGARDING LOCALIZED
FLOODING. SYRACUSE AREA THROUGH NORTHEASTERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IN
PARTICULAR HAS HAD REPEATED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS/BACKBUILDING...2-3
BATCHES DEPENDING ON LOCATION...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN FLASH
FLOODING. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WATER MAKING ROADS IMPASSABLE...CARS
STUCK IN WATER...WATER IN BASEMENTS AND THE LIKE WHICH IS COMMON
WHEN HEAVY RAIN STRIKES AND URBANIZED AREA. HEAVY RAIN HAS
OCCURRED ELSEWHERE IN OUR REGION AS WELL BUT PROBLEMS MUCH MORE
LOCALIZED AND MINOR. FINALLY...STORMS HAVE IGNITED IN WYOMING-
LUZERNE COUNTIES IN PA HEADING INTO LACKAWANNA...WHICH APPEARS TO
HAVE GONE SEVERE. WARNING UNTIL 1130 PM THERE DUE TO EXPECTED
GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THINGS WILL WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THINGS CAREFULLY THE NEXT 24 HRS SINCE ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR AREAS THAT JUST
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN.

645 PM UPDATE...
SVR TSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 8PM FOR NEPA AND SULLIVAN CO
NY...THOUGH AT THIS POINT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL /ESPECIALLY
PIKE COUNTY/ APPEARS TO THE BE MORE OF A CONCERN. IT IS LIKELY
THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THE WATCH AT 8PM AS
SCHEDULED...MEANWHILE...WE ALREADY HAVE A STATEMENT OUT FOR PIKE
COUNTY REGARDING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THAT AREA.

FURTHER NORTH...CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRETTY WIDELY SCATTERED THOUGH
WE DO HAVE A HEAVY RAINER CARRYING ACROSS NORTHERN ONONDAGA AT
THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...WELL MARKED WAVE NOW IN WESTERN PA WILL
MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 10PM-2AM TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS-EMBEDDED
THUNDER. IF THINGS HOLD TOGETHER...AS MENTIONED BELOW...SHORT
FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE NECESSARY FOR AREAS ALREADY
GETTING DECENT RAIN BEFOREHAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 PM...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE ERN
CWA FROM THE VCNTY OF SYR DOWN THROUGH THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION INTO
NE PA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST THROUGH EVENING.
ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY IS WIDESPREAD WITH JUST
SCATTERED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
BEST ACROSS NE PA AND SRN NY WHERE THE WATCH CURRENTLY RESIDES. BY
EARLY EVENING INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BOTH DECREASE,
REDUCING THE THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER. A MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH OHIO WILL LIFT NE AND ACROSS THE FA LATER THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE EVENING. DUE TO RECENT WET WEATHER IF THIS SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION TAKES AIM AT NE PA A SHORT FUSE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED.

ON WEDNESDAY...H5 TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FA
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON PERIOD. WIDESPREAD TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS BEST FROM I81 EAST WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE THE
LONGEST TIME TO DESTABILIZE. BULK SHEAR VALUES AND MID LEVEL FLOW
NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS TODAY BUT STORMS MAINLY EAST OF I81 COULD
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE THROUGH THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
OVER THE FA BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. THURSDAY WILL BE
COOL UNDER NW FLOW AND MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CNTRL
NY AND MID/UPR 70S OVER NE PA. ON FRIDAY, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TROF OVER LOWER ONTARIO WILL PRESS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY,
CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY OVER NY AND
PA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL REBUILD FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING INTO THE 80S. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIR INTO MONDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROF SWINGS INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
KAVP WILL STILL EXPERIENCE A COUPLE SMALL TSRA
CLUSTERS...OTHERWISE REMAINS OF EVENING CONVECTION WILL SHUNT
EASTWARD OF THE TERMINALS THE REST OF OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF THAT
CONVECTION...FUEL ALT CIGS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AND
EVEN EVENTUAL IFR KBGM-KELM-KAVP /LIFR KBGM/. IMPROVEMENT WILL
OCCUR 12Z-14Z BUT A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WITH NEW SHRA-
TSRA SHORTLY THEREAFTER LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS
INSERTED FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KAVP WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
LESS...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING SPECIFICS. GENERALLY
SPEAKING FOR WINDS...LIGHT SE OR VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...VEERING SW
IN MORNING THEN W BEHIND COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS INTO
MID TEENS RANGE.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-EARLY THU...EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG POSSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY VALLEYS LIKE KELM.

MID MORNING THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PAZ048.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MDP



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010541
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
141 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL LINGER NEARBY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THE LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ML MUCAPES BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN ZONES...BUT MOST OF
THE INITIAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TAPERING OFF. AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
IMPACTED WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY WITH ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS
AROUND 1 INCH...AND A SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CURRENTLY
SPREADING OVER WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY
THERE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH THE LINGERING WARM
FRONT...SHOULD HELP REGENERATE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE...WITH
LIKELY POP FOR ALL OF NYC METRO AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

LOWS WILL BE NEAR 70 IN NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
EXPECT LIKELY TO CAT POP FOR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WED MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS.
CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...BEST MOISTURE AXIS APPEARS TO
SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN TERMS OF AMOUNT DESTABILIZATION BEFORE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WELL INLAND...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL
A MARGINAL CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE PIVOTING EAST OF
THE REGION. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE LAGGING COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIR MASS.

HIGHS ON WED WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST...TO
LOWER 80S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO MID/UPPER 80S IN NYC AND NE NJ.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF TONIGHT...AT
LEAST OUTSIDE OF NYC...WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ON
SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH
PRECIPITATION...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT S OF LI WILL PASS THRU THE REGION THIS MRNG. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THIS EVE.

SCT-BKN AROUND 1500 FT THIS MRNG. SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NEWD TIL AROUND 15-17Z WHEN DRY AIR
WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SW. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR VFR TO
DEVELOP QUICKLY. THERE IS A CHC FOR SHWRS AND/OR TSTMS TO DEVELOP
THIS EVE RIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS HOWEVER ATTM.

SE FLOW VEERS TO THE SSW THIS MRNG...THEN SW FLOW AFT 15Z. GUST
POTENTIAL GREATEST AFT 17Z. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TNGT BEHIND THE
FRONT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE WED NGT...VFR WITH NW FLOW GENERALLY BLW 10KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT W FLOW. SEA BREEZES LIKELY.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS CLOSE
ENOUGH...MVFR OR LWR POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY N.
.SUN...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR SHORE WINDS IN THE NY BIGHT AND HARBOR CONTINUE TO GUST INTO
THE LOWER 20S.

OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS BY WED EVE. OTHERWISE QUIET
WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. BASIN AVG OF RAIN IS
AROUND A HALF INCH...BUT LOCALLY 1 INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE. MOST
LIKELY THREAT WILL BE FOR MINOR URBAN FLOODING...BUT THERE IS A
LOW THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AND WESTERN LI SOUND...MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010541
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
141 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL LINGER NEARBY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THE LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ML MUCAPES BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN ZONES...BUT MOST OF
THE INITIAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TAPERING OFF. AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
IMPACTED WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY WITH ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS
AROUND 1 INCH...AND A SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CURRENTLY
SPREADING OVER WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY
THERE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH THE LINGERING WARM
FRONT...SHOULD HELP REGENERATE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE...WITH
LIKELY POP FOR ALL OF NYC METRO AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

LOWS WILL BE NEAR 70 IN NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
EXPECT LIKELY TO CAT POP FOR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WED MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS.
CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...BEST MOISTURE AXIS APPEARS TO
SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN TERMS OF AMOUNT DESTABILIZATION BEFORE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WELL INLAND...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL
A MARGINAL CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE PIVOTING EAST OF
THE REGION. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE LAGGING COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIR MASS.

HIGHS ON WED WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST...TO
LOWER 80S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO MID/UPPER 80S IN NYC AND NE NJ.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF TONIGHT...AT
LEAST OUTSIDE OF NYC...WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ON
SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH
PRECIPITATION...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT S OF LI WILL PASS THRU THE REGION THIS MRNG. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THIS EVE.

SCT-BKN AROUND 1500 FT THIS MRNG. SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NEWD TIL AROUND 15-17Z WHEN DRY AIR
WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SW. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR VFR TO
DEVELOP QUICKLY. THERE IS A CHC FOR SHWRS AND/OR TSTMS TO DEVELOP
THIS EVE RIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS HOWEVER ATTM.

SE FLOW VEERS TO THE SSW THIS MRNG...THEN SW FLOW AFT 15Z. GUST
POTENTIAL GREATEST AFT 17Z. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TNGT BEHIND THE
FRONT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE WED NGT...VFR WITH NW FLOW GENERALLY BLW 10KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT W FLOW. SEA BREEZES LIKELY.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS CLOSE
ENOUGH...MVFR OR LWR POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY N.
.SUN...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR SHORE WINDS IN THE NY BIGHT AND HARBOR CONTINUE TO GUST INTO
THE LOWER 20S.

OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS BY WED EVE. OTHERWISE QUIET
WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. BASIN AVG OF RAIN IS
AROUND A HALF INCH...BUT LOCALLY 1 INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE. MOST
LIKELY THREAT WILL BE FOR MINOR URBAN FLOODING...BUT THERE IS A
LOW THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AND WESTERN LI SOUND...MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010541
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A GREATER THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1248 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR REFLECTIVITY
INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NNEWD FROM THE
CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY AT 0445Z. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS EWD
ACROSS VT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH MAINTENANCE OF WEAK
INSTABILITY AS THIS AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TRANSLATED NNEWD INTO
OUR REGION NEXT 1-3 HRS. WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN QUASI- STEADY THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. RAINFALL GENERALLY 0.10-0.20"...BUT
LOCALLY HIGHER WITH ANY BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY CORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NY...WHICH
IS TRACKING TOWARD OUR TAF SITES. EXPECTING RAIN TO ARRIVE BTWN
07Z-09Z...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE. MPV HAS FOG IN
THIS MORNING WITH 1/4SM VIS AND CIGS AT 100 FEET...BUT THINK THIS
FOG WILL LIFT WHEN RAIN ARRIVES BTWN 07Z-08Z. ELSEWHERE...CIGS
WILL CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH MVFR CIGS
LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES BY 12Z THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED AFT 16Z. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND
HEAVY DOWN POURS...WHICH WILL REDUCE VIS BLW 3SM AT TIMES. HAVE
USED A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 16Z AND 19Z TO COVER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTN...WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS OVER
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES...BTV/PBG/RUT/MPV/SLK. SLOW CLEARING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK
BTWN 06Z AND 12Z THURS AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER
POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010541
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A GREATER THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1248 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR REFLECTIVITY
INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NNEWD FROM THE
CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY AT 0445Z. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS EWD
ACROSS VT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH MAINTENANCE OF WEAK
INSTABILITY AS THIS AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TRANSLATED NNEWD INTO
OUR REGION NEXT 1-3 HRS. WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN QUASI- STEADY THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. RAINFALL GENERALLY 0.10-0.20"...BUT
LOCALLY HIGHER WITH ANY BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY CORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NY...WHICH
IS TRACKING TOWARD OUR TAF SITES. EXPECTING RAIN TO ARRIVE BTWN
07Z-09Z...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE. MPV HAS FOG IN
THIS MORNING WITH 1/4SM VIS AND CIGS AT 100 FEET...BUT THINK THIS
FOG WILL LIFT WHEN RAIN ARRIVES BTWN 07Z-08Z. ELSEWHERE...CIGS
WILL CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH MVFR CIGS
LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES BY 12Z THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED AFT 16Z. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND
HEAVY DOWN POURS...WHICH WILL REDUCE VIS BLW 3SM AT TIMES. HAVE
USED A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 16Z AND 19Z TO COVER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTN...WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS OVER
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES...BTV/PBG/RUT/MPV/SLK. SLOW CLEARING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK
BTWN 06Z AND 12Z THURS AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER
POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010539
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
139 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRING A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER BY THURSDAY. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD WITH BATCHES OF SHOWERS ROTATING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME
HEATING THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN SMALL...WITH ONLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OHIO POSSIBLY REACHING SW NYS BEFORE DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
MOST AREAS WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS GIVING A SOMEWHAT MUGGY FEEL.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. LOCAL
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHICH COULD ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EVEN
BEHIND THE ILL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK LEADING UP TO A
STRETCH OF FINE WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE
STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...HAVE DROPPED BACK POPS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST WITH A TOUCH OF HUMIDITY. HAVE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND FAR NORTH COUNTY WITH A FRONT
GLANCING THE NORTH COUNTY. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER HAVE LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER WITH SOME CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL PA THAT MAY TRY TO SNEAK UP INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IT WILL LARGELY BE A QUIET INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE REGION
WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY DIP CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
REGION TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EQUATORWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING IN A 20 POP ELSEWHERE...BUT OVERALL IT
SHOULD BE A LARGELY SUNNY AND MILD FOURTH OF JULY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILARLY MILD FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY MONDAY WE SHOULD START
TO SEE READINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MORE SO INTO TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
INDICATES ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 06Z MAINLY VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. THERE CONTINUES SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH THUNDER HAS LARGELY ENDED FROM THE
STORMS OVERNIGHT.

AS TEMPERATURES COOL SOME TO THEIR DEWPOINT SOME IFR/LOW END MVFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS KJHW/KBUF/KIAG LATER
OVERNIGHT.

LATER TODAY WILL FEATURE AGAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES VARYING IN THE
MVFR/VFR FLIGHT RANGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM...BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH
BETTER DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT MAY EVEN TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

AS THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL END SHOWER CHANCES AND
ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUDS. HOWEVER SOME IFR LOW STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE TO HANG OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING THE KJHW
AIRFIELD OVERNIGHT.

A SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 15 KNOTS NE OF
LAKE ERIE BEHIND A LAKE ERIE BREEZE. WINDS WILL VEER TO WESTERLY AND
RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE TONIGHT WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON LAKE
ERIE.

OTHERWISE PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
EARLY INDICATIONS OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
         EVENING FOR LEZ020-040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...SMITH/WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK



000
FXUS61 KBUF 010539
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
139 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRING A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER BY THURSDAY. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD WITH BATCHES OF SHOWERS ROTATING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME
HEATING THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN SMALL...WITH ONLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OHIO POSSIBLY REACHING SW NYS BEFORE DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
MOST AREAS WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS GIVING A SOMEWHAT MUGGY FEEL.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. LOCAL
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHICH COULD ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EVEN
BEHIND THE ILL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK LEADING UP TO A
STRETCH OF FINE WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE
STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...HAVE DROPPED BACK POPS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST WITH A TOUCH OF HUMIDITY. HAVE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND FAR NORTH COUNTY WITH A FRONT
GLANCING THE NORTH COUNTY. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER HAVE LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER WITH SOME CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL PA THAT MAY TRY TO SNEAK UP INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IT WILL LARGELY BE A QUIET INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE REGION
WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY DIP CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
REGION TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EQUATORWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING IN A 20 POP ELSEWHERE...BUT OVERALL IT
SHOULD BE A LARGELY SUNNY AND MILD FOURTH OF JULY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILARLY MILD FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY MONDAY WE SHOULD START
TO SEE READINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MORE SO INTO TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
INDICATES ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 06Z MAINLY VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. THERE CONTINUES SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH THUNDER HAS LARGELY ENDED FROM THE
STORMS OVERNIGHT.

AS TEMPERATURES COOL SOME TO THEIR DEWPOINT SOME IFR/LOW END MVFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS KJHW/KBUF/KIAG LATER
OVERNIGHT.

LATER TODAY WILL FEATURE AGAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES VARYING IN THE
MVFR/VFR FLIGHT RANGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM...BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH
BETTER DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT MAY EVEN TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

AS THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL END SHOWER CHANCES AND
ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUDS. HOWEVER SOME IFR LOW STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE TO HANG OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING THE KJHW
AIRFIELD OVERNIGHT.

A SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 15 KNOTS NE OF
LAKE ERIE BEHIND A LAKE ERIE BREEZE. WINDS WILL VEER TO WESTERLY AND
RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE TONIGHT WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON LAKE
ERIE.

OTHERWISE PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
EARLY INDICATIONS OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
         EVENING FOR LEZ020-040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...SMITH/WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010539
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
139 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRING A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER BY THURSDAY. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD WITH BATCHES OF SHOWERS ROTATING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME
HEATING THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN SMALL...WITH ONLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OHIO POSSIBLY REACHING SW NYS BEFORE DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
MOST AREAS WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS GIVING A SOMEWHAT MUGGY FEEL.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. LOCAL
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHICH COULD ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EVEN
BEHIND THE ILL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK LEADING UP TO A
STRETCH OF FINE WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE
STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...HAVE DROPPED BACK POPS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST WITH A TOUCH OF HUMIDITY. HAVE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND FAR NORTH COUNTY WITH A FRONT
GLANCING THE NORTH COUNTY. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER HAVE LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER WITH SOME CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL PA THAT MAY TRY TO SNEAK UP INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IT WILL LARGELY BE A QUIET INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE REGION
WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY DIP CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
REGION TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EQUATORWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING IN A 20 POP ELSEWHERE...BUT OVERALL IT
SHOULD BE A LARGELY SUNNY AND MILD FOURTH OF JULY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILARLY MILD FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY MONDAY WE SHOULD START
TO SEE READINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MORE SO INTO TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
INDICATES ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 06Z MAINLY VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. THERE CONTINUES SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH THUNDER HAS LARGELY ENDED FROM THE
STORMS OVERNIGHT.

AS TEMPERATURES COOL SOME TO THEIR DEWPOINT SOME IFR/LOW END MVFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS KJHW/KBUF/KIAG LATER
OVERNIGHT.

LATER TODAY WILL FEATURE AGAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES VARYING IN THE
MVFR/VFR FLIGHT RANGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM...BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH
BETTER DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT MAY EVEN TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

AS THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL END SHOWER CHANCES AND
ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUDS. HOWEVER SOME IFR LOW STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE TO HANG OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING THE KJHW
AIRFIELD OVERNIGHT.

A SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 15 KNOTS NE OF
LAKE ERIE BEHIND A LAKE ERIE BREEZE. WINDS WILL VEER TO WESTERLY AND
RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE TONIGHT WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON LAKE
ERIE.

OTHERWISE PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
EARLY INDICATIONS OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
         EVENING FOR LEZ020-040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...SMITH/WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK



000
FXUS61 KBUF 010539
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
139 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRING A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER BY THURSDAY. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD WITH BATCHES OF SHOWERS ROTATING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME
HEATING THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN SMALL...WITH ONLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OHIO POSSIBLY REACHING SW NYS BEFORE DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
MOST AREAS WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS GIVING A SOMEWHAT MUGGY FEEL.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. LOCAL
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHICH COULD ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EVEN
BEHIND THE ILL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK LEADING UP TO A
STRETCH OF FINE WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE
STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...HAVE DROPPED BACK POPS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST WITH A TOUCH OF HUMIDITY. HAVE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND FAR NORTH COUNTY WITH A FRONT
GLANCING THE NORTH COUNTY. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER HAVE LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER WITH SOME CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL PA THAT MAY TRY TO SNEAK UP INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IT WILL LARGELY BE A QUIET INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE REGION
WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY DIP CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
REGION TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EQUATORWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING IN A 20 POP ELSEWHERE...BUT OVERALL IT
SHOULD BE A LARGELY SUNNY AND MILD FOURTH OF JULY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILARLY MILD FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY MONDAY WE SHOULD START
TO SEE READINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MORE SO INTO TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
INDICATES ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 06Z MAINLY VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. THERE CONTINUES SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH THUNDER HAS LARGELY ENDED FROM THE
STORMS OVERNIGHT.

AS TEMPERATURES COOL SOME TO THEIR DEWPOINT SOME IFR/LOW END MVFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS KJHW/KBUF/KIAG LATER
OVERNIGHT.

LATER TODAY WILL FEATURE AGAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES VARYING IN THE
MVFR/VFR FLIGHT RANGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM...BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH
BETTER DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT MAY EVEN TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

AS THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL END SHOWER CHANCES AND
ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUDS. HOWEVER SOME IFR LOW STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE TO HANG OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING THE KJHW
AIRFIELD OVERNIGHT.

A SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 15 KNOTS NE OF
LAKE ERIE BEHIND A LAKE ERIE BREEZE. WINDS WILL VEER TO WESTERLY AND
RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE TONIGHT WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON LAKE
ERIE.

OTHERWISE PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
EARLY INDICATIONS OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
         EVENING FOR LEZ020-040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...SMITH/WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KALY 010530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA AND ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES
CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND
PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
WILL HAVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY
THE MODELS WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT OF IMPACT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 0630Z-0800Z/WED. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME THUNDER...AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS WINDOW...THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIMINISH...BUT IFR CIGS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z-13Z/WED.

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
19Z-22Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AT 5-10 KT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH MAY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND
GUST INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12 KT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AT
8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 010530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA AND ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES
CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND
PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
WILL HAVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY
THE MODELS WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT OF IMPACT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 0630Z-0800Z/WED. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME THUNDER...AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS WINDOW...THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIMINISH...BUT IFR CIGS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z-13Z/WED.

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
19Z-22Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AT 5-10 KT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH MAY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND
GUST INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12 KT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AT
8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 010530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA AND ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES
CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND
PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
WILL HAVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY
THE MODELS WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT OF IMPACT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 0630Z-0800Z/WED. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME THUNDER...AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS WINDOW...THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIMINISH...BUT IFR CIGS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z-13Z/WED.

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
19Z-22Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AT 5-10 KT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH MAY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND
GUST INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12 KT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AT
8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 010530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA AND ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES
CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND
PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
WILL HAVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY
THE MODELS WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT OF IMPACT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 0630Z-0800Z/WED. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME THUNDER...AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS WINDOW...THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIMINISH...BUT IFR CIGS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z-13Z/WED.

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
19Z-22Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AT 5-10 KT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH MAY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND
GUST INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12 KT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AT
8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010456
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1256 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A GREATER THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1248 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR REFLECTIVITY
INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NNEWD FROM THE
CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY AT 0445Z. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS EWD
ACROSS VT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH MAINTENANCE OF WEAK
INSTABILITY AS THIS AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TRANSLATED NNEWD INTO
OUR REGION NEXT 1-3 HRS. WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN QUASI- STEADY THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. RAINFALL GENERALLY 0.10-0.20"...BUT
LOCALLY HIGHER WITH ANY BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY CORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING THROUGH MOST
TERMINALS BUT SHOULD BE DONE AROUND 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR KMSS/KSLK/KMPV FROM 03Z-13Z WITH CEILINGS
LINGERING AROUND OR AT MVFR AT KMSS AND KSLK FROM MOST OF THE
PERIOD. KSLK COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF IFR FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 5-10 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 15-20 AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH/MV
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010456
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1256 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A GREATER THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1248 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR REFLECTIVITY
INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NNEWD FROM THE
CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY AT 0445Z. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS EWD
ACROSS VT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH MAINTENANCE OF WEAK
INSTABILITY AS THIS AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TRANSLATED NNEWD INTO
OUR REGION NEXT 1-3 HRS. WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN QUASI- STEADY THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. RAINFALL GENERALLY 0.10-0.20"...BUT
LOCALLY HIGHER WITH ANY BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY CORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING THROUGH MOST
TERMINALS BUT SHOULD BE DONE AROUND 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR KMSS/KSLK/KMPV FROM 03Z-13Z WITH CEILINGS
LINGERING AROUND OR AT MVFR AT KMSS AND KSLK FROM MOST OF THE
PERIOD. KSLK COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF IFR FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 5-10 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 15-20 AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH/MV
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KALY 010422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1222 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA AND ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES
CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND
PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
WILL HAVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY
THE MODELS WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 010422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1222 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA AND ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES
CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND
PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
WILL HAVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY
THE MODELS WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 010254
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1054 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.
CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 010254
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1054 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.
CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 010254
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1054 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.
CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010254
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1054 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.
CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBGM 010253
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1053 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
THINGS ACTUALLY TURNED FAIRLY ACTIVE THE LAST FEW HOURS DESPITE
EXPIRATION OF THE SVR WATCH...ESPECIALLY REGARDING LOCALIZED
FLOODING. SYRACUSE AREA THROUGH NORTHEASTERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IN
PARTICULAR HAS HAD REPEATED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS/BACKBUILDING...2-3
BATCHES DEPENDING ON LOCATION...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN FLASH
FLOODING. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WATER MAKING ROADS IMPASSABLE...CARS
STUCK IN WATER...WATER IN BASEMENTS AND THE LIKE WHICH IS COMMON
WHEN HEAVY RAIN STRIKES AND URBANIZED AREA. HEAVY RAIN HAS
OCCURRED ELSEWHERE IN OUR REGION AS WELL BUT PROBLEMS MUCH MORE
LOCALIZED AND MINOR. FINALLY...STORMS HAVE IGNITED IN WYOMING-
LUZERNE COUNTIES IN PA HEADING INTO LACKAWANNA...WHICH APPEARS TO
HAVE GONE SEVERE. WARNING UNTIL 1130 PM THERE DUE TO EXPECTED
GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THINGS WILL WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THINGS CAREFULLY THE NEXT 24 HRS SINCE ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR AREAS THAT JUST
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN.

645 PM UPDATE...
SVR TSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 8PM FOR NEPA AND SULLIVAN CO
NY...THOUGH AT THIS POINT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL /ESPECIALLY
PIKE COUNTY/ APPEARS TO THE BE MORE OF A CONCERN. IT IS LIKELY
THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THE WATCH AT 8PM AS
SCHEDULED...MEANWHILE...WE ALREADY HAVE A STATEMENT OUT FOR PIKE
COUNTY REGARDING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THAT AREA.

FURTHER NORTH...CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRETTY WIDELY SCATTERED THOUGH
WE DO HAVE A HEAVY RAINER CARRYING ACROSS NORTHERN ONONDAGA AT
THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...WELL MARKED WAVE NOW IN WESTERN PA WILL
MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 10PM-2AM TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS-EMBEDDED
THUNDER. IF THINGS HOLD TOGETHER...AS MENTIONED BELOW...SHORT
FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE NECESSARY FOR AREAS ALREADY
GETTING DECENT RAIN BEFOREHAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 PM...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE ERN
CWA FROM THE VCNTY OF SYR DOWN THROUGH THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION INTO
NE PA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST THROUGH EVENING.
ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY IS WIDESPREAD WITH JUST
SCATTERED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
BEST ACROSS NE PA AND SRN NY WHERE THE WATCH CURRENTLY RESIDES. BY
EARLY EVENING INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BOTH DECREASE,
REDUCING THE THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER. A MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH OHIO WILL LIFT NE AND ACROSS THE FA LATER THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE EVENING. DUE TO RECENT WET WEATHER IF THIS SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION TAKES AIM AT NE PA A SHORT FUSE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED.

ON WEDNESDAY...H5 TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FA
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON PERIOD. WIDESPREAD TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS BEST FROM I81 EAST WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE THE
LONGEST TIME TO DESTABILIZE. BULK SHEAR VALUES AND MID LEVEL FLOW
NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS TODAY BUT STORMS MAINLY EAST OF I81 COULD
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE THROUGH THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
OVER THE FA BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. THURSDAY WILL BE
COOL UNDER NW FLOW AND MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CNTRL
NY AND MID/UPR 70S OVER NE PA. ON FRIDAY, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TROF OVER LOWER ONTARIO WILL PRESS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY,
CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY OVER NY AND
PA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL REBUILD FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING INTO THE 80S. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIR INTO MONDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROF SWINGS INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
LEFTOVERS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE PESTERING THE TERMINALS
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...AND THEN MORE SHRA-EMBEDDED TSRA LATER
THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE ALOFT. WITH THE CONVECTION
MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE /CIG AND VIS/...THEN
BEHIND IT...FUEL ALT CIGS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AND
EVEN EVENTUAL IFR KBGM-KELM-KAVP. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR 12Z-15Z
BUT A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WITH NEW SHRA- TSRA SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. PROB30 GROUPS INSERTED FOR ALL EXCEPT KAVP WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS LESS...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING SPECIFICS.
GENERALLY SPEAKING FOR WINDS...LIGHT SE TO S OR VARIABLE THIS
EVENING...VEERING SW INTO WED MORNING THEN W BEHIND COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS INTO MID TEENS RANGE.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-EARLY THU...EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG POSSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY VALLEYS LIKE KELM.

MID MORNING THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 010253
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1053 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
THINGS ACTUALLY TURNED FAIRLY ACTIVE THE LAST FEW HOURS DESPITE
EXPIRATION OF THE SVR WATCH...ESPECIALLY REGARDING LOCALIZED
FLOODING. SYRACUSE AREA THROUGH NORTHEASTERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IN
PARTICULAR HAS HAD REPEATED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS/BACKBUILDING...2-3
BATCHES DEPENDING ON LOCATION...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN FLASH
FLOODING. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WATER MAKING ROADS IMPASSABLE...CARS
STUCK IN WATER...WATER IN BASEMENTS AND THE LIKE WHICH IS COMMON
WHEN HEAVY RAIN STRIKES AND URBANIZED AREA. HEAVY RAIN HAS
OCCURRED ELSEWHERE IN OUR REGION AS WELL BUT PROBLEMS MUCH MORE
LOCALIZED AND MINOR. FINALLY...STORMS HAVE IGNITED IN WYOMING-
LUZERNE COUNTIES IN PA HEADING INTO LACKAWANNA...WHICH APPEARS TO
HAVE GONE SEVERE. WARNING UNTIL 1130 PM THERE DUE TO EXPECTED
GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THINGS WILL WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THINGS CAREFULLY THE NEXT 24 HRS SINCE ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR AREAS THAT JUST
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN.

645 PM UPDATE...
SVR TSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 8PM FOR NEPA AND SULLIVAN CO
NY...THOUGH AT THIS POINT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL /ESPECIALLY
PIKE COUNTY/ APPEARS TO THE BE MORE OF A CONCERN. IT IS LIKELY
THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THE WATCH AT 8PM AS
SCHEDULED...MEANWHILE...WE ALREADY HAVE A STATEMENT OUT FOR PIKE
COUNTY REGARDING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THAT AREA.

FURTHER NORTH...CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRETTY WIDELY SCATTERED THOUGH
WE DO HAVE A HEAVY RAINER CARRYING ACROSS NORTHERN ONONDAGA AT
THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...WELL MARKED WAVE NOW IN WESTERN PA WILL
MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 10PM-2AM TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS-EMBEDDED
THUNDER. IF THINGS HOLD TOGETHER...AS MENTIONED BELOW...SHORT
FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE NECESSARY FOR AREAS ALREADY
GETTING DECENT RAIN BEFOREHAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 PM...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE ERN
CWA FROM THE VCNTY OF SYR DOWN THROUGH THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION INTO
NE PA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST THROUGH EVENING.
ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY IS WIDESPREAD WITH JUST
SCATTERED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
BEST ACROSS NE PA AND SRN NY WHERE THE WATCH CURRENTLY RESIDES. BY
EARLY EVENING INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BOTH DECREASE,
REDUCING THE THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER. A MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH OHIO WILL LIFT NE AND ACROSS THE FA LATER THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE EVENING. DUE TO RECENT WET WEATHER IF THIS SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION TAKES AIM AT NE PA A SHORT FUSE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED.

ON WEDNESDAY...H5 TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FA
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON PERIOD. WIDESPREAD TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS BEST FROM I81 EAST WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE THE
LONGEST TIME TO DESTABILIZE. BULK SHEAR VALUES AND MID LEVEL FLOW
NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS TODAY BUT STORMS MAINLY EAST OF I81 COULD
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE THROUGH THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
OVER THE FA BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. THURSDAY WILL BE
COOL UNDER NW FLOW AND MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CNTRL
NY AND MID/UPR 70S OVER NE PA. ON FRIDAY, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TROF OVER LOWER ONTARIO WILL PRESS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY,
CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY OVER NY AND
PA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL REBUILD FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING INTO THE 80S. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIR INTO MONDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROF SWINGS INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
LEFTOVERS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE PESTERING THE TERMINALS
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...AND THEN MORE SHRA-EMBEDDED TSRA LATER
THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE ALOFT. WITH THE CONVECTION
MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE /CIG AND VIS/...THEN
BEHIND IT...FUEL ALT CIGS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AND
EVEN EVENTUAL IFR KBGM-KELM-KAVP. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR 12Z-15Z
BUT A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WITH NEW SHRA- TSRA SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. PROB30 GROUPS INSERTED FOR ALL EXCEPT KAVP WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS LESS...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING SPECIFICS.
GENERALLY SPEAKING FOR WINDS...LIGHT SE TO S OR VARIABLE THIS
EVENING...VEERING SW INTO WED MORNING THEN W BEHIND COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS INTO MID TEENS RANGE.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-EARLY THU...EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG POSSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY VALLEYS LIKE KELM.

MID MORNING THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MDP



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010241
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A GREATER THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1040 PM EDT TUESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. JUST
EXPECTED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LAPS ANALYSIS THROUGH 02Z CONTINUING TO SHOW
STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING THROUGH MOST
TERMINALS BUT SHOULD BE DONE AROUND 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR KMSS/KSLK/KMPV FROM 03Z-13Z WITH CEILINGS
LINGERING AROUND OR AT MVFR AT KMSS AND KSLK FROM MOST OF THE
PERIOD. KSLK COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF IFR FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 5-10 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 15-20 AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH/MV
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010241
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A GREATER THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1040 PM EDT TUESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. JUST
EXPECTED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LAPS ANALYSIS THROUGH 02Z CONTINUING TO SHOW
STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING THROUGH MOST
TERMINALS BUT SHOULD BE DONE AROUND 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR KMSS/KSLK/KMPV FROM 03Z-13Z WITH CEILINGS
LINGERING AROUND OR AT MVFR AT KMSS AND KSLK FROM MOST OF THE
PERIOD. KSLK COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF IFR FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 5-10 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 15-20 AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH/MV
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010241
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A GREATER THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1040 PM EDT TUESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. JUST
EXPECTED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LAPS ANALYSIS THROUGH 02Z CONTINUING TO SHOW
STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING THROUGH MOST
TERMINALS BUT SHOULD BE DONE AROUND 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR KMSS/KSLK/KMPV FROM 03Z-13Z WITH CEILINGS
LINGERING AROUND OR AT MVFR AT KMSS AND KSLK FROM MOST OF THE
PERIOD. KSLK COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF IFR FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 5-10 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 15-20 AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH/MV
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010241
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A GREATER THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1040 PM EDT TUESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. JUST
EXPECTED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LAPS ANALYSIS THROUGH 02Z CONTINUING TO SHOW
STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING THROUGH MOST
TERMINALS BUT SHOULD BE DONE AROUND 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR KMSS/KSLK/KMPV FROM 03Z-13Z WITH CEILINGS
LINGERING AROUND OR AT MVFR AT KMSS AND KSLK FROM MOST OF THE
PERIOD. KSLK COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF IFR FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 5-10 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 15-20 AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH/MV
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010241
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A GREATER THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1040 PM EDT TUESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. JUST
EXPECTED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LAPS ANALYSIS THROUGH 02Z CONTINUING TO SHOW
STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING THROUGH MOST
TERMINALS BUT SHOULD BE DONE AROUND 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR KMSS/KSLK/KMPV FROM 03Z-13Z WITH CEILINGS
LINGERING AROUND OR AT MVFR AT KMSS AND KSLK FROM MOST OF THE
PERIOD. KSLK COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF IFR FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 5-10 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 15-20 AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH/MV
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010241
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A GREATER THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1040 PM EDT TUESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. JUST
EXPECTED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LAPS ANALYSIS THROUGH 02Z CONTINUING TO SHOW
STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING THROUGH MOST
TERMINALS BUT SHOULD BE DONE AROUND 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR KMSS/KSLK/KMPV FROM 03Z-13Z WITH CEILINGS
LINGERING AROUND OR AT MVFR AT KMSS AND KSLK FROM MOST OF THE
PERIOD. KSLK COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF IFR FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 5-10 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 15-20 AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH/MV
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010241
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A GREATER THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1040 PM EDT TUESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. JUST
EXPECTED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LAPS ANALYSIS THROUGH 02Z CONTINUING TO SHOW
STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING THROUGH MOST
TERMINALS BUT SHOULD BE DONE AROUND 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR KMSS/KSLK/KMPV FROM 03Z-13Z WITH CEILINGS
LINGERING AROUND OR AT MVFR AT KMSS AND KSLK FROM MOST OF THE
PERIOD. KSLK COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF IFR FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 5-10 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 15-20 AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH/MV
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010241
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A GREATER THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1040 PM EDT TUESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. JUST
EXPECTED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LAPS ANALYSIS THROUGH 02Z CONTINUING TO SHOW
STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING THROUGH MOST
TERMINALS BUT SHOULD BE DONE AROUND 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR KMSS/KSLK/KMPV FROM 03Z-13Z WITH CEILINGS
LINGERING AROUND OR AT MVFR AT KMSS AND KSLK FROM MOST OF THE
PERIOD. KSLK COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF IFR FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 5-10 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 15-20 AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH/MV
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010236
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1036 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL LINGER NEARBY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THE LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ML MUCAPES BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN ZONES...BUT MOST OF
THE INITIAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TAPERING OFF. AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
IMPACTED WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY WITH ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS
AROUND 1 INCH...AND A SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CURRENTLY
SPREADING OVER WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY
THERE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH THE LINGERING WARM
FRONT...SHOULD HELP REGENERATE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE...WITH
LIKELY POP FOR ALL OF NYC METRO AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

LOWS WILL BE NEAR 70 IN NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT LIKELY TO CAT POP FOR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WED MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS.
CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...BEST MOISTURE AXIS APPEARS TO
SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN TERMS OF AMOUNT DESTABILIZATION BEFORE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WELL INLAND...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL
A MARGINAL CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE PIVOTING EAST OF
THE REGION. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE LAGGING COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIR MASS.

HIGHS ON WED WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST...TO
LOWER 80S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO MID/UPPER 80S IN NYC AND NE NJ.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF TONIGHT...AT
LEAST OUTSIDE OF NYC...WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ON
SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH
PRECIPITATION...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST
OF THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE
WEDNESDAY.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING FLIGHT CATEGORY TONIGHT. MVFR
HAS DEVELOPED AT KTEB...KHPN AND KSWF...WITH IFR AT KEWR.
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP EARLIER THAN FORECAST AT OTHER TERMINALS.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN LOW END MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 8-12Z.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL 8-12Z...BUT MOST LIKELY 12-15Z. ISO
THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 14-15Z. ISO
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF CITY
TERMINALS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

S-SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE
E/SE OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE SW.
GUSTS 20-25 KT EXPECTED ACROSS CITY TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED.
.SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR SHORE WINDS IN THE NY BIGHT AND HARBOR CONTINUE TO GUST INTO
THE LOWER 20S.

OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS BY WED EVE. OTHERWISE QUIET
WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. BASIN AVG OF RAIN IS
AROUND A HALF INCH...BUT LOCALLY 1 INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE. MOST
LIKELY THREAT WILL BE FOR MINOR URBAN FLOODING...BUT THERE IS A
LOW THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AND WESTERN LI SOUND...MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010236
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1036 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL LINGER NEARBY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THE LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ML MUCAPES BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN ZONES...BUT MOST OF
THE INITIAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TAPERING OFF. AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
IMPACTED WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY WITH ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS
AROUND 1 INCH...AND A SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CURRENTLY
SPREADING OVER WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY
THERE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH THE LINGERING WARM
FRONT...SHOULD HELP REGENERATE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE...WITH
LIKELY POP FOR ALL OF NYC METRO AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

LOWS WILL BE NEAR 70 IN NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT LIKELY TO CAT POP FOR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WED MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS.
CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...BEST MOISTURE AXIS APPEARS TO
SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN TERMS OF AMOUNT DESTABILIZATION BEFORE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WELL INLAND...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL
A MARGINAL CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE PIVOTING EAST OF
THE REGION. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE LAGGING COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIR MASS.

HIGHS ON WED WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST...TO
LOWER 80S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO MID/UPPER 80S IN NYC AND NE NJ.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF TONIGHT...AT
LEAST OUTSIDE OF NYC...WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ON
SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH
PRECIPITATION...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST
OF THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE
WEDNESDAY.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING FLIGHT CATEGORY TONIGHT. MVFR
HAS DEVELOPED AT KTEB...KHPN AND KSWF...WITH IFR AT KEWR.
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP EARLIER THAN FORECAST AT OTHER TERMINALS.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN LOW END MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 8-12Z.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL 8-12Z...BUT MOST LIKELY 12-15Z. ISO
THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 14-15Z. ISO
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF CITY
TERMINALS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

S-SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE
E/SE OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE SW.
GUSTS 20-25 KT EXPECTED ACROSS CITY TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED.
.SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR SHORE WINDS IN THE NY BIGHT AND HARBOR CONTINUE TO GUST INTO
THE LOWER 20S.

OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS BY WED EVE. OTHERWISE QUIET
WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. BASIN AVG OF RAIN IS
AROUND A HALF INCH...BUT LOCALLY 1 INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE. MOST
LIKELY THREAT WILL BE FOR MINOR URBAN FLOODING...BUT THERE IS A
LOW THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AND WESTERN LI SOUND...MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010236
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1036 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL LINGER NEARBY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THE LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ML MUCAPES BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN ZONES...BUT MOST OF
THE INITIAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TAPERING OFF. AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
IMPACTED WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY WITH ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS
AROUND 1 INCH...AND A SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CURRENTLY
SPREADING OVER WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY
THERE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH THE LINGERING WARM
FRONT...SHOULD HELP REGENERATE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE...WITH
LIKELY POP FOR ALL OF NYC METRO AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

LOWS WILL BE NEAR 70 IN NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT LIKELY TO CAT POP FOR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WED MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS.
CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...BEST MOISTURE AXIS APPEARS TO
SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN TERMS OF AMOUNT DESTABILIZATION BEFORE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WELL INLAND...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL
A MARGINAL CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE PIVOTING EAST OF
THE REGION. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE LAGGING COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIR MASS.

HIGHS ON WED WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST...TO
LOWER 80S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO MID/UPPER 80S IN NYC AND NE NJ.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF TONIGHT...AT
LEAST OUTSIDE OF NYC...WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ON
SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH
PRECIPITATION...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST
OF THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE
WEDNESDAY.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING FLIGHT CATEGORY TONIGHT. MVFR
HAS DEVELOPED AT KTEB...KHPN AND KSWF...WITH IFR AT KEWR.
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP EARLIER THAN FORECAST AT OTHER TERMINALS.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN LOW END MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 8-12Z.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL 8-12Z...BUT MOST LIKELY 12-15Z. ISO
THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 14-15Z. ISO
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF CITY
TERMINALS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

S-SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE
E/SE OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE SW.
GUSTS 20-25 KT EXPECTED ACROSS CITY TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED.
.SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR SHORE WINDS IN THE NY BIGHT AND HARBOR CONTINUE TO GUST INTO
THE LOWER 20S.

OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS BY WED EVE. OTHERWISE QUIET
WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. BASIN AVG OF RAIN IS
AROUND A HALF INCH...BUT LOCALLY 1 INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE. MOST
LIKELY THREAT WILL BE FOR MINOR URBAN FLOODING...BUT THERE IS A
LOW THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AND WESTERN LI SOUND...MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010236
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1036 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL LINGER NEARBY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THE LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ML MUCAPES BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN ZONES...BUT MOST OF
THE INITIAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TAPERING OFF. AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
IMPACTED WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY WITH ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS
AROUND 1 INCH...AND A SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CURRENTLY
SPREADING OVER WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY
THERE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH THE LINGERING WARM
FRONT...SHOULD HELP REGENERATE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE...WITH
LIKELY POP FOR ALL OF NYC METRO AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

LOWS WILL BE NEAR 70 IN NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT LIKELY TO CAT POP FOR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WED MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS.
CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...BEST MOISTURE AXIS APPEARS TO
SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN TERMS OF AMOUNT DESTABILIZATION BEFORE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WELL INLAND...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL
A MARGINAL CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE PIVOTING EAST OF
THE REGION. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE LAGGING COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIR MASS.

HIGHS ON WED WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST...TO
LOWER 80S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO MID/UPPER 80S IN NYC AND NE NJ.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF TONIGHT...AT
LEAST OUTSIDE OF NYC...WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ON
SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH
PRECIPITATION...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST
OF THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE
WEDNESDAY.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING FLIGHT CATEGORY TONIGHT. MVFR
HAS DEVELOPED AT KTEB...KHPN AND KSWF...WITH IFR AT KEWR.
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP EARLIER THAN FORECAST AT OTHER TERMINALS.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN LOW END MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 8-12Z.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL 8-12Z...BUT MOST LIKELY 12-15Z. ISO
THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 14-15Z. ISO
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF CITY
TERMINALS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

S-SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE
E/SE OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE SW.
GUSTS 20-25 KT EXPECTED ACROSS CITY TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED.
.SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR SHORE WINDS IN THE NY BIGHT AND HARBOR CONTINUE TO GUST INTO
THE LOWER 20S.

OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS BY WED EVE. OTHERWISE QUIET
WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. BASIN AVG OF RAIN IS
AROUND A HALF INCH...BUT LOCALLY 1 INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE. MOST
LIKELY THREAT WILL BE FOR MINOR URBAN FLOODING...BUT THERE IS A
LOW THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AND WESTERN LI SOUND...MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010236
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1036 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL LINGER NEARBY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THE LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ML MUCAPES BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN ZONES...BUT MOST OF
THE INITIAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TAPERING OFF. AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
IMPACTED WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY WITH ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS
AROUND 1 INCH...AND A SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CURRENTLY
SPREADING OVER WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY
THERE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH THE LINGERING WARM
FRONT...SHOULD HELP REGENERATE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE...WITH
LIKELY POP FOR ALL OF NYC METRO AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

LOWS WILL BE NEAR 70 IN NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT LIKELY TO CAT POP FOR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WED MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS.
CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...BEST MOISTURE AXIS APPEARS TO
SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN TERMS OF AMOUNT DESTABILIZATION BEFORE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WELL INLAND...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL
A MARGINAL CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE PIVOTING EAST OF
THE REGION. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE LAGGING COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIR MASS.

HIGHS ON WED WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST...TO
LOWER 80S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO MID/UPPER 80S IN NYC AND NE NJ.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF TONIGHT...AT
LEAST OUTSIDE OF NYC...WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ON
SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH
PRECIPITATION...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST
OF THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE
WEDNESDAY.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING FLIGHT CATEGORY TONIGHT. MVFR
HAS DEVELOPED AT KTEB...KHPN AND KSWF...WITH IFR AT KEWR.
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP EARLIER THAN FORECAST AT OTHER TERMINALS.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN LOW END MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 8-12Z.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL 8-12Z...BUT MOST LIKELY 12-15Z. ISO
THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 14-15Z. ISO
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF CITY
TERMINALS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

S-SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE
E/SE OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE SW.
GUSTS 20-25 KT EXPECTED ACROSS CITY TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED.
.SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR SHORE WINDS IN THE NY BIGHT AND HARBOR CONTINUE TO GUST INTO
THE LOWER 20S.

OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS BY WED EVE. OTHERWISE QUIET
WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. BASIN AVG OF RAIN IS
AROUND A HALF INCH...BUT LOCALLY 1 INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE. MOST
LIKELY THREAT WILL BE FOR MINOR URBAN FLOODING...BUT THERE IS A
LOW THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AND WESTERN LI SOUND...MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010234
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1034 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRING A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER BY THURSDAY. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NY LATE THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
THROUGH LATE EVENING AND WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
ANOTHER MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NY AND THE GENESEE
VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A
DISTINCT SPIN WITH THIS...INDICATIVE OF A MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA
WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY
GOING DEEP INTO THE NIGHT DESPITE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND HRRR SEEM
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...AND MAINTAIN AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE CENTER OF THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS TO
PASS OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND MILD...WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS
GIVING A SOMEWHAT MUGGY FEEL.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. LOCAL
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHICH COULD ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EVEN
BEHIND THE ILL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK LEADING UP TO A
STRETCH OF FINE WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE
STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...HAVE DROPPED BACK POPS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST WITH A TOUCH OF HUMIDITY. HAVE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND FAR NORTH COUNTY WITH A FRONT
GLANCING THE NORTH COUNTY. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER HAVE LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER WITH SOME CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL PA THAT MAY TRY TO SNEAK UP INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IT WILL LARGELY BE A QUIET INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE REGION
WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY DIP CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
REGION TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EQUATORWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING IN A 20 POP ELSEWHERE...BUT OVERALL IT
SHOULD BE A LARGELY SUNNY AND MILD FOURTH OF JULY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILARLY MILD FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY MONDAY WE SHOULD START
TO SEE READINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MORE SO INTO TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
INDICATES ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE TONIGHT WITH
SEVERAL ASSOCIATED WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF MORE
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN LATE THIS EVENING. THE NEXT AREA OF MORE
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NY LATE
THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE REACHING THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND COMBINE WITH DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
MVFR CIGS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH SOME IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LOWER CIGS WILL
SLOWLY MIX OUT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME A
LITTLE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE NEAR KBUF-KIAG WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25
KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE TONIGHT WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON LAKE
ERIE.

OTHERWISE PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
EARLY INDICATIONS OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...SMITH/WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010234
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1034 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRING A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER BY THURSDAY. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NY LATE THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
THROUGH LATE EVENING AND WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
ANOTHER MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NY AND THE GENESEE
VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A
DISTINCT SPIN WITH THIS...INDICATIVE OF A MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA
WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY
GOING DEEP INTO THE NIGHT DESPITE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND HRRR SEEM
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...AND MAINTAIN AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE CENTER OF THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS TO
PASS OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND MILD...WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS
GIVING A SOMEWHAT MUGGY FEEL.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. LOCAL
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHICH COULD ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EVEN
BEHIND THE ILL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK LEADING UP TO A
STRETCH OF FINE WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE
STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE...HAVE DROPPED BACK POPS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST WITH A TOUCH OF HUMIDITY. HAVE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND FAR NORTH COUNTY WITH A FRONT
GLANCING THE NORTH COUNTY. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER HAVE LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER WITH SOME CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL PA THAT MAY TRY TO SNEAK UP INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IT WILL LARGELY BE A QUIET INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE REGION
WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY DIP CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
REGION TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EQUATORWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING IN A 20 POP ELSEWHERE...BUT OVERALL IT
SHOULD BE A LARGELY SUNNY AND MILD FOURTH OF JULY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILARLY MILD FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY MONDAY WE SHOULD START
TO SEE READINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MORE SO INTO TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
INDICATES ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE TONIGHT WITH
SEVERAL ASSOCIATED WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF MORE
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN LATE THIS EVENING. THE NEXT AREA OF MORE
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NY LATE
THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE REACHING THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND COMBINE WITH DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
MVFR CIGS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH SOME IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LOWER CIGS WILL
SLOWLY MIX OUT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME A
LITTLE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE NEAR KBUF-KIAG WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25
KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE TONIGHT WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON LAKE
ERIE.

OTHERWISE PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
EARLY INDICATIONS OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...SMITH/WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK



000
FXUS61 KALY 010025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
825 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK
SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO
LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY
LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE
ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND -1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL
TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF
THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 010025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
825 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK
SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO
LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY
LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE
ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND -1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL
TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF
THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 010025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
825 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK
SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO
LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY
LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE
ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND -1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL
TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF
THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 010025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
825 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK
SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO
LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY
LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE
ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND -1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL
TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF
THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 010025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
825 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK
SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO
LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY
LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE
ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND -1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL
TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF
THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
825 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK
SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO
LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY
LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE
ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND -1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL
TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF
THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KBUF 010003
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
803 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRING A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER BY THURSDAY. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
THROUGH LATE EVENING AND WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
ANOTHER MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NW PA
AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SUBTLE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WITH THE ADDED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF LASTING DEEP INTO THE
NIGHT. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND
HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...AND MAINTAIN AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE CENTER OF THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS TO PASS
OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND MILD...WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS
GIVING A SOMEWHAT MUGGY FEEL.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. LOCAL
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHICH COULD ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EVEN
BEHIND THE ILL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS
SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT
INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL
RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT WILL LARGELY BE A QUIET INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE REGION
WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY DIP CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
REGION TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EQUATORWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING IN A 20 POP ELSEWHERE...BUT OVERALL IT
SHOULD BE A LARGELY SUNNY AND MILD FOURTH OF JULY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILARLY MILD FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY MONDAY WE SHOULD START
TO SEE READINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MORE SO INTO TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
INDICATES ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE TONIGHT WITH
SEVERAL ASSOCIATED WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF MORE
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING. THE NEXT AREA OF MORE
CONCENTRATED RAIN ACROSS NW PA AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF HOLDING TOGETHER OVERNIGHT WITH BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE REACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
BY DAYBREAK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND COMBINE WITH DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
MVFR CIGS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH SOME IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LOWER CIGS WILL
SLOWLY MIX OUT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME A
LITTLE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE NEAR KBUF-KIAG WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25
KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE TONIGHT WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON LAKE
ERIE.

OTHERWISE PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
EARLY INDICATIONS OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010003
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
803 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRING A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER BY THURSDAY. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
THROUGH LATE EVENING AND WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
ANOTHER MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NW PA
AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SUBTLE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WITH THE ADDED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF LASTING DEEP INTO THE
NIGHT. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND
HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...AND MAINTAIN AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE CENTER OF THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS TO PASS
OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND MILD...WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS
GIVING A SOMEWHAT MUGGY FEEL.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. LOCAL
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHICH COULD ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EVEN
BEHIND THE ILL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS
SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT
INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL
RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT WILL LARGELY BE A QUIET INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE REGION
WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY DIP CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
REGION TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EQUATORWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING IN A 20 POP ELSEWHERE...BUT OVERALL IT
SHOULD BE A LARGELY SUNNY AND MILD FOURTH OF JULY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILARLY MILD FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY MONDAY WE SHOULD START
TO SEE READINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MORE SO INTO TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
INDICATES ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE TONIGHT WITH
SEVERAL ASSOCIATED WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF MORE
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING. THE NEXT AREA OF MORE
CONCENTRATED RAIN ACROSS NW PA AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF HOLDING TOGETHER OVERNIGHT WITH BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE REACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
BY DAYBREAK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND COMBINE WITH DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
MVFR CIGS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH SOME IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LOWER CIGS WILL
SLOWLY MIX OUT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME A
LITTLE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE NEAR KBUF-KIAG WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25
KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE TONIGHT WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON LAKE
ERIE.

OTHERWISE PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
EARLY INDICATIONS OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010003
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
803 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRING A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER BY THURSDAY. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
THROUGH LATE EVENING AND WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
ANOTHER MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NW PA
AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SUBTLE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WITH THE ADDED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF LASTING DEEP INTO THE
NIGHT. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND
HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...AND MAINTAIN AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE CENTER OF THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS TO PASS
OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND MILD...WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS
GIVING A SOMEWHAT MUGGY FEEL.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. LOCAL
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHICH COULD ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EVEN
BEHIND THE ILL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS
SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT
INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL
RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT WILL LARGELY BE A QUIET INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE REGION
WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY DIP CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
REGION TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EQUATORWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING IN A 20 POP ELSEWHERE...BUT OVERALL IT
SHOULD BE A LARGELY SUNNY AND MILD FOURTH OF JULY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILARLY MILD FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY MONDAY WE SHOULD START
TO SEE READINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MORE SO INTO TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
INDICATES ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE TONIGHT WITH
SEVERAL ASSOCIATED WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF MORE
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING. THE NEXT AREA OF MORE
CONCENTRATED RAIN ACROSS NW PA AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF HOLDING TOGETHER OVERNIGHT WITH BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE REACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
BY DAYBREAK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND COMBINE WITH DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
MVFR CIGS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH SOME IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LOWER CIGS WILL
SLOWLY MIX OUT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME A
LITTLE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE NEAR KBUF-KIAG WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25
KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE TONIGHT WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON LAKE
ERIE.

OTHERWISE PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
EARLY INDICATIONS OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010003
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
803 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRING A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER BY THURSDAY. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
THROUGH LATE EVENING AND WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
ANOTHER MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NW PA
AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SUBTLE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WITH THE ADDED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF LASTING DEEP INTO THE
NIGHT. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND
HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...AND MAINTAIN AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE CENTER OF THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS TO PASS
OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND MILD...WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS
GIVING A SOMEWHAT MUGGY FEEL.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. LOCAL
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHICH COULD ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EVEN
BEHIND THE ILL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS
SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT
INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL
RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT WILL LARGELY BE A QUIET INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE REGION
WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY DIP CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
REGION TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EQUATORWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING IN A 20 POP ELSEWHERE...BUT OVERALL IT
SHOULD BE A LARGELY SUNNY AND MILD FOURTH OF JULY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILARLY MILD FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY MONDAY WE SHOULD START
TO SEE READINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MORE SO INTO TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
INDICATES ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE TONIGHT WITH
SEVERAL ASSOCIATED WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF MORE
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING. THE NEXT AREA OF MORE
CONCENTRATED RAIN ACROSS NW PA AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF HOLDING TOGETHER OVERNIGHT WITH BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE REACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
BY DAYBREAK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND COMBINE WITH DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
MVFR CIGS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH SOME IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LOWER CIGS WILL
SLOWLY MIX OUT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME A
LITTLE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE NEAR KBUF-KIAG WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25
KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE TONIGHT WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON LAKE
ERIE.

OTHERWISE PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
EARLY INDICATIONS OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010003
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
803 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRING A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER BY THURSDAY. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
THROUGH LATE EVENING AND WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
ANOTHER MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NW PA
AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SUBTLE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WITH THE ADDED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF LASTING DEEP INTO THE
NIGHT. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND
HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...AND MAINTAIN AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE CENTER OF THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS TO PASS
OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND MILD...WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS
GIVING A SOMEWHAT MUGGY FEEL.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. LOCAL
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHICH COULD ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EVEN
BEHIND THE ILL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS
SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT
INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL
RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT WILL LARGELY BE A QUIET INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE REGION
WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY DIP CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
REGION TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EQUATORWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING IN A 20 POP ELSEWHERE...BUT OVERALL IT
SHOULD BE A LARGELY SUNNY AND MILD FOURTH OF JULY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILARLY MILD FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY MONDAY WE SHOULD START
TO SEE READINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MORE SO INTO TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
INDICATES ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE TONIGHT WITH
SEVERAL ASSOCIATED WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF MORE
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING. THE NEXT AREA OF MORE
CONCENTRATED RAIN ACROSS NW PA AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF HOLDING TOGETHER OVERNIGHT WITH BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE REACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
BY DAYBREAK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND COMBINE WITH DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
MVFR CIGS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH SOME IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LOWER CIGS WILL
SLOWLY MIX OUT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME A
LITTLE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE NEAR KBUF-KIAG WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25
KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE TONIGHT WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON LAKE
ERIE.

OTHERWISE PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
EARLY INDICATIONS OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK



000
FXUS61 KBTV 302356
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
756 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A GREATER THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 756 PM EDT TUESDAY...LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING STABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO HAVE DROPPED THE MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND WILL JUST KEEP IN A MENTION OF RAIN
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND
COULD HAVE AN EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH COOLING EFFECTS
FROM RAINFALL FURTHERING STABILITY. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS TO EXIT NORTH AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WILL RANGE FROM
ABOUT 0.1 TO 0.5 INCH POSSIBLE.

WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING, MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING THROUGH MOST
TERMINALS BUT SHOULD BE DONE AROUND 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR KMSS/KSLK/KMPV FROM 03Z-13Z WITH CEILINGS
LINGERING AROUND OR AT MVFR AT KMSS AND KSLK FROM MOST OF THE
PERIOD. KSLK COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF IFR FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 5-10 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 15-20 AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...WGH/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH/MV
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBGM 302354
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
754 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...
SVR TSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 8PM FOR NEPA AND SULLIVAN CO
NY...THOUGH AT THIS POINT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL /ESPECIALLY
PIKE COUNTY/ APPEARS TO THE BE MORE OF A CONCERN. IT IS LIKELY
THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THE WATCH AT 8PM AS
SCHEDULED...MEANWHILE...WE ALREADY HAVE A STATEMENT OUT FOR PIKE
COUNTY REGARDING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THAT AREA.

FURTHER NORTH...CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRETTY WIDELY SCATTERED THOUGH
WE DO HAVE A HEAVY RAINER CARRYING ACROSS NORTHERN ONONDAGA AT
THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...WELL MARKED WAVE NOW IN WESTERN PA WILL
MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 10PM-2AM TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS-EMBEDDED
THUNDER. IF THINGS HOLD TOGETHER...AS MENTIONED BELOW...SHORT
FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE NECESSARY FOR AREAS ALREADY
GETTING DECENT RAIN BEFOREHAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 PM...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE ERN
CWA FROM THE VCNTY OF SYR DOWN THROUGH THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION INTO
NE PA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST THROUGH EVENING.
ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY IS WIDESPREAD WITH JUST
SCATTERED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
BEST ACROSS NE PA AND SRN NY WHERE THE WATCH CURRENTLY RESIDES. BY
EARLY EVENING INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BOTH DECREASE,
REDUCING THE THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER. A MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH OHIO WILL LIFT NE AND ACROSS THE FA LATER THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE EVENING. DUE TO RECENT WET WEATHER IF THIS SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION TAKES AIM AT NE PA A SHORT FUSE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED.

ON WEDNESDAY...H5 TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FA
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON PERIOD. WIDESPREAD TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS BEST FROM I81 EAST WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE THE
LONGEST TIME TO DESTABILIZE. BULK SHEAR VALUES AND MID LEVEL FLOW
NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS TODAY BUT STORMS MAINLY EAST OF I81 COULD
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE THROUGH THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
OVER THE FA BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. THURSDAY WILL BE
COOL UNDER NW FLOW AND MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CNTRL
NY AND MID/UPR 70S OVER NE PA. ON FRIDAY, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TROF OVER LOWER ONTARIO WILL PRESS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY,
CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY OVER NY AND
PA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL REBUILD FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING INTO THE 80S. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIR INTO MONDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROF SWINGS INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
LEFTOVERS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE PESTERING THE TERMINALS
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...AND THEN MORE SHRA-EMBEDDED TSRA LATER
THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE ALOFT. WITH THE CONVECTION
MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE /CIG AND VIS/...THEN
BEHIND IT...FUEL ALT CIGS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AND
EVEN EVENTUAL IFR KBGM-KELM-KAVP. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR 12Z-15Z
BUT A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WITH NEW SHRA- TSRA SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. PROB30 GROUPS INSERTED FOR ALL EXCEPT KAVP WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS LESS...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING SPECIFICS.
GENERALLY SPEAKING FOR WINDS...LIGHT SE TO S OR VARIABLE THIS
EVENING...VEERING SW INTO WED MORNING THEN W BEHIND COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS INTO MID TEENS RANGE.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-EARLY THU...EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG POSSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY VALLEYS LIKE KELM.

MID MORNING THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MDP



000
FXUS61 KBGM 302354
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
754 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...
SVR TSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 8PM FOR NEPA AND SULLIVAN CO
NY...THOUGH AT THIS POINT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL /ESPECIALLY
PIKE COUNTY/ APPEARS TO THE BE MORE OF A CONCERN. IT IS LIKELY
THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THE WATCH AT 8PM AS
SCHEDULED...MEANWHILE...WE ALREADY HAVE A STATEMENT OUT FOR PIKE
COUNTY REGARDING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THAT AREA.

FURTHER NORTH...CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRETTY WIDELY SCATTERED THOUGH
WE DO HAVE A HEAVY RAINER CARRYING ACROSS NORTHERN ONONDAGA AT
THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...WELL MARKED WAVE NOW IN WESTERN PA WILL
MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 10PM-2AM TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS-EMBEDDED
THUNDER. IF THINGS HOLD TOGETHER...AS MENTIONED BELOW...SHORT
FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE NECESSARY FOR AREAS ALREADY
GETTING DECENT RAIN BEFOREHAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 PM...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE ERN
CWA FROM THE VCNTY OF SYR DOWN THROUGH THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION INTO
NE PA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST THROUGH EVENING.
ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY IS WIDESPREAD WITH JUST
SCATTERED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
BEST ACROSS NE PA AND SRN NY WHERE THE WATCH CURRENTLY RESIDES. BY
EARLY EVENING INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BOTH DECREASE,
REDUCING THE THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER. A MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH OHIO WILL LIFT NE AND ACROSS THE FA LATER THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE EVENING. DUE TO RECENT WET WEATHER IF THIS SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION TAKES AIM AT NE PA A SHORT FUSE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED.

ON WEDNESDAY...H5 TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FA
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON PERIOD. WIDESPREAD TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS BEST FROM I81 EAST WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE THE
LONGEST TIME TO DESTABILIZE. BULK SHEAR VALUES AND MID LEVEL FLOW
NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS TODAY BUT STORMS MAINLY EAST OF I81 COULD
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE THROUGH THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
OVER THE FA BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. THURSDAY WILL BE
COOL UNDER NW FLOW AND MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CNTRL
NY AND MID/UPR 70S OVER NE PA. ON FRIDAY, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TROF OVER LOWER ONTARIO WILL PRESS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY,
CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY OVER NY AND
PA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL REBUILD FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING INTO THE 80S. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIR INTO MONDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROF SWINGS INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
LEFTOVERS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE PESTERING THE TERMINALS
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...AND THEN MORE SHRA-EMBEDDED TSRA LATER
THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE ALOFT. WITH THE CONVECTION
MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE /CIG AND VIS/...THEN
BEHIND IT...FUEL ALT CIGS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AND
EVEN EVENTUAL IFR KBGM-KELM-KAVP. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR 12Z-15Z
BUT A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WITH NEW SHRA- TSRA SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. PROB30 GROUPS INSERTED FOR ALL EXCEPT KAVP WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS LESS...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING SPECIFICS.
GENERALLY SPEAKING FOR WINDS...LIGHT SE TO S OR VARIABLE THIS
EVENING...VEERING SW INTO WED MORNING THEN W BEHIND COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS INTO MID TEENS RANGE.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-EARLY THU...EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG POSSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY VALLEYS LIKE KELM.

MID MORNING THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 302354
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
754 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...
SVR TSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 8PM FOR NEPA AND SULLIVAN CO
NY...THOUGH AT THIS POINT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL /ESPECIALLY
PIKE COUNTY/ APPEARS TO THE BE MORE OF A CONCERN. IT IS LIKELY
THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THE WATCH AT 8PM AS
SCHEDULED...MEANWHILE...WE ALREADY HAVE A STATEMENT OUT FOR PIKE
COUNTY REGARDING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THAT AREA.

FURTHER NORTH...CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRETTY WIDELY SCATTERED THOUGH
WE DO HAVE A HEAVY RAINER CARRYING ACROSS NORTHERN ONONDAGA AT
THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...WELL MARKED WAVE NOW IN WESTERN PA WILL
MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 10PM-2AM TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS-EMBEDDED
THUNDER. IF THINGS HOLD TOGETHER...AS MENTIONED BELOW...SHORT
FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE NECESSARY FOR AREAS ALREADY
GETTING DECENT RAIN BEFOREHAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 PM...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE ERN
CWA FROM THE VCNTY OF SYR DOWN THROUGH THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION INTO
NE PA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST THROUGH EVENING.
ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY IS WIDESPREAD WITH JUST
SCATTERED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
BEST ACROSS NE PA AND SRN NY WHERE THE WATCH CURRENTLY RESIDES. BY
EARLY EVENING INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BOTH DECREASE,
REDUCING THE THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER. A MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH OHIO WILL LIFT NE AND ACROSS THE FA LATER THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE EVENING. DUE TO RECENT WET WEATHER IF THIS SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION TAKES AIM AT NE PA A SHORT FUSE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED.

ON WEDNESDAY...H5 TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FA
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON PERIOD. WIDESPREAD TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS BEST FROM I81 EAST WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE THE
LONGEST TIME TO DESTABILIZE. BULK SHEAR VALUES AND MID LEVEL FLOW
NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS TODAY BUT STORMS MAINLY EAST OF I81 COULD
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE THROUGH THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
OVER THE FA BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. THURSDAY WILL BE
COOL UNDER NW FLOW AND MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CNTRL
NY AND MID/UPR 70S OVER NE PA. ON FRIDAY, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TROF OVER LOWER ONTARIO WILL PRESS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY,
CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY OVER NY AND
PA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL REBUILD FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING INTO THE 80S. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIR INTO MONDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROF SWINGS INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
LEFTOVERS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE PESTERING THE TERMINALS
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...AND THEN MORE SHRA-EMBEDDED TSRA LATER
THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE ALOFT. WITH THE CONVECTION
MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE /CIG AND VIS/...THEN
BEHIND IT...FUEL ALT CIGS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AND
EVEN EVENTUAL IFR KBGM-KELM-KAVP. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR 12Z-15Z
BUT A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WITH NEW SHRA- TSRA SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. PROB30 GROUPS INSERTED FOR ALL EXCEPT KAVP WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS LESS...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR TIMING SPECIFICS.
GENERALLY SPEAKING FOR WINDS...LIGHT SE TO S OR VARIABLE THIS
EVENING...VEERING SW INTO WED MORNING THEN W BEHIND COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS INTO MID TEENS RANGE.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-EARLY THU...EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG POSSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY VALLEYS LIKE KELM.

MID MORNING THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBTV 302347
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A GREATER THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD HAVE AN
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH COOLING EFFECTS FROM RAINFALL
FURTHERING STABILITY. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT
NORTH AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.1 TO
0.5 INCH POSSIBLE.

WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING, MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING THROUGH MOST
TERMINALS BUT SHOULD BE DONE AROUND 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR KMSS/KSLK/KMPV FROM 03Z-13Z WITH CEILINGS
LINGERING AROUND OR AT MVFR AT KMSS AND KSLK FROM MOST OF THE
PERIOD. KSLK COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF IFR FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 5-10 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 15-20 AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH/MV
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 302347
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A GREATER THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD HAVE AN
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH COOLING EFFECTS FROM RAINFALL
FURTHERING STABILITY. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT
NORTH AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.1 TO
0.5 INCH POSSIBLE.

WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING, MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING THROUGH MOST
TERMINALS BUT SHOULD BE DONE AROUND 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR KMSS/KSLK/KMPV FROM 03Z-13Z WITH CEILINGS
LINGERING AROUND OR AT MVFR AT KMSS AND KSLK FROM MOST OF THE
PERIOD. KSLK COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF IFR FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 5-10 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 15-20 AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH/MV
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 302320
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
720 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL LINGER NEARBY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THE LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WITH A WIDESPREAD STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA...HAVING A
HARD TIME GETTING SHOWERS TO MAKE IT INTO WESTERN ZONES...MUCH
LESS THUNDERSTORMS...AND EVEN MUCH LESS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...THERE IS NO CAPE OVER CT/LI...AND
ONLY MARGINAL ML MUCAPE OF 300-400 J/KG OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
NE NJ AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY...BUT
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL THERE DUE TO TRAINING OF CELLS.

WILL THEREFORE CANCEL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372. CANNOT RULE
OUT A WARNING FOR WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY GOING INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH THE LINGERING WARM
FRONT...SHOULD HELP REGENERATE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE...WITH
LIKELY POP FOR ALL OF NYC METRO AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

LOWS WILL BE NEAR 70 IN NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT LIKELY TO CAT POP FOR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WED MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS.
CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...BEST MOISTURE AXIS APPEARS TO
SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN TERMS OF AMOUNT DESTABILIZATION BEFORE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WELL INLAND...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL
A MARGINAL CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE PIVOTING EAST OF
THE REGION. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE LAGGING COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIR MASS.

HIGHS ON WED WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST...TO
LOWER 80S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO MID/UPPER 80S IN NYC AND NE NJ.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF TONIGHT...AT
LEAST OUTSIDE OF NYC...WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ON
SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH
PRECIPITATION...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST
OF THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE
WEDNESDAY.

VFR THIS EVENING. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN LOW END MVFR...BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 8-12Z. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL 8-12Z...BUT MOST LIKELY 12-15Z. ISO THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 14-15Z. ISO
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF CITY
TERMINALS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

S-SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE
E/SE OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE SW.
GUSTS 20-25 KT EXPECTED ACROSS CITY TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SHRA POSSIBLE POSSIBLE 2-4Z. IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE 8-12Z. START TIME OF WIND GUSTS WED AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF
BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SHRA POSSIBLE POSSIBLE 2-4Z. IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE 8-12Z. START TIME OF WIND GUSTS WED AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF
BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CIGS POSSIBLE 8-12Z. START TIME OF WIND
GUSTS WED AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CIGS POSSIBLE 8-12Z. START TIME OF WIND
GUSTS WED AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CIGS POSSIBLE 8-12Z. START TIME OF WIND
GUSTS WED AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CIGS POSSIBLE 8-12Z. START TIME OF WIND
GUSTS WED AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED.
.SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR SHORE WINDS IN THE NY BIGHT AND HARBOR CONTINUE TO GUST INTO
THE LOWER 20S.

OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS BY WED EVE. OTHERWISE QUIET
WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN NE NJ EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THROUGHOUT FROM LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. BASIN AVG OF RAIN IS AROUND A HALF
INCH...BUT LOCALLY 1 INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE. MOST LIKELY THREAT
WILL BE FOR MINOR URBAN FLOODING...BUT THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AND WESTERN LI SOUND...MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 302320
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
720 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL LINGER NEARBY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THE LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WITH A WIDESPREAD STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA...HAVING A
HARD TIME GETTING SHOWERS TO MAKE IT INTO WESTERN ZONES...MUCH
LESS THUNDERSTORMS...AND EVEN MUCH LESS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...THERE IS NO CAPE OVER CT/LI...AND
ONLY MARGINAL ML MUCAPE OF 300-400 J/KG OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
NE NJ AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY...BUT
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL THERE DUE TO TRAINING OF CELLS.

WILL THEREFORE CANCEL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372. CANNOT RULE
OUT A WARNING FOR WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY GOING INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH THE LINGERING WARM
FRONT...SHOULD HELP REGENERATE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE...WITH
LIKELY POP FOR ALL OF NYC METRO AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

LOWS WILL BE NEAR 70 IN NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT LIKELY TO CAT POP FOR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WED MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS.
CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...BEST MOISTURE AXIS APPEARS TO
SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN TERMS OF AMOUNT DESTABILIZATION BEFORE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WELL INLAND...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL
A MARGINAL CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE PIVOTING EAST OF
THE REGION. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE LAGGING COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIR MASS.

HIGHS ON WED WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST...TO
LOWER 80S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO MID/UPPER 80S IN NYC AND NE NJ.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF TONIGHT...AT
LEAST OUTSIDE OF NYC...WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ON
SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH
PRECIPITATION...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST
OF THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE
WEDNESDAY.

VFR THIS EVENING. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN LOW END MVFR...BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 8-12Z. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL 8-12Z...BUT MOST LIKELY 12-15Z. ISO THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 14-15Z. ISO
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF CITY
TERMINALS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

S-SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE
E/SE OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE SW.
GUSTS 20-25 KT EXPECTED ACROSS CITY TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SHRA POSSIBLE POSSIBLE 2-4Z. IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE 8-12Z. START TIME OF WIND GUSTS WED AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF
BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SHRA POSSIBLE POSSIBLE 2-4Z. IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE 8-12Z. START TIME OF WIND GUSTS WED AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF
BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CIGS POSSIBLE 8-12Z. START TIME OF WIND
GUSTS WED AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CIGS POSSIBLE 8-12Z. START TIME OF WIND
GUSTS WED AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CIGS POSSIBLE 8-12Z. START TIME OF WIND
GUSTS WED AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CIGS POSSIBLE 8-12Z. START TIME OF WIND
GUSTS WED AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED.
.SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR SHORE WINDS IN THE NY BIGHT AND HARBOR CONTINUE TO GUST INTO
THE LOWER 20S.

OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS BY WED EVE. OTHERWISE QUIET
WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN NE NJ EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THROUGHOUT FROM LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. BASIN AVG OF RAIN IS AROUND A HALF
INCH...BUT LOCALLY 1 INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE. MOST LIKELY THREAT
WILL BE FOR MINOR URBAN FLOODING...BUT THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AND WESTERN LI SOUND...MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 302320
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
720 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL LINGER NEARBY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THE LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WITH A WIDESPREAD STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA...HAVING A
HARD TIME GETTING SHOWERS TO MAKE IT INTO WESTERN ZONES...MUCH
LESS THUNDERSTORMS...AND EVEN MUCH LESS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...THERE IS NO CAPE OVER CT/LI...AND
ONLY MARGINAL ML MUCAPE OF 300-400 J/KG OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
NE NJ AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY...BUT
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL THERE DUE TO TRAINING OF CELLS.

WILL THEREFORE CANCEL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372. CANNOT RULE
OUT A WARNING FOR WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY GOING INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH THE LINGERING WARM
FRONT...SHOULD HELP REGENERATE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE...WITH
LIKELY POP FOR ALL OF NYC METRO AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

LOWS WILL BE NEAR 70 IN NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT LIKELY TO CAT POP FOR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WED MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS.
CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...BEST MOISTURE AXIS APPEARS TO
SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN TERMS OF AMOUNT DESTABILIZATION BEFORE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WELL INLAND...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL
A MARGINAL CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE PIVOTING EAST OF
THE REGION. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE LAGGING COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIR MASS.

HIGHS ON WED WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST...TO
LOWER 80S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO MID/UPPER 80S IN NYC AND NE NJ.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF TONIGHT...AT
LEAST OUTSIDE OF NYC...WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ON
SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH
PRECIPITATION...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST
OF THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE
WEDNESDAY.

VFR THIS EVENING. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN LOW END MVFR...BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 8-12Z. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL 8-12Z...BUT MOST LIKELY 12-15Z. ISO THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 14-15Z. ISO
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF CITY
TERMINALS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

S-SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE
E/SE OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE SW.
GUSTS 20-25 KT EXPECTED ACROSS CITY TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SHRA POSSIBLE POSSIBLE 2-4Z. IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE 8-12Z. START TIME OF WIND GUSTS WED AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF
BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SHRA POSSIBLE POSSIBLE 2-4Z. IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE 8-12Z. START TIME OF WIND GUSTS WED AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF
BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CIGS POSSIBLE 8-12Z. START TIME OF WIND
GUSTS WED AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CIGS POSSIBLE 8-12Z. START TIME OF WIND
GUSTS WED AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CIGS POSSIBLE 8-12Z. START TIME OF WIND
GUSTS WED AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CIGS POSSIBLE 8-12Z. START TIME OF WIND
GUSTS WED AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED.
.SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR SHORE WINDS IN THE NY BIGHT AND HARBOR CONTINUE TO GUST INTO
THE LOWER 20S.

OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS BY WED EVE. OTHERWISE QUIET
WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN NE NJ EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THROUGHOUT FROM LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. BASIN AVG OF RAIN IS AROUND A HALF
INCH...BUT LOCALLY 1 INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE. MOST LIKELY THREAT
WILL BE FOR MINOR URBAN FLOODING...BUT THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AND WESTERN LI SOUND...MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 302320
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
720 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL LINGER NEARBY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THE LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WITH A WIDESPREAD STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA...HAVING A
HARD TIME GETTING SHOWERS TO MAKE IT INTO WESTERN ZONES...MUCH
LESS THUNDERSTORMS...AND EVEN MUCH LESS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...THERE IS NO CAPE OVER CT/LI...AND
ONLY MARGINAL ML MUCAPE OF 300-400 J/KG OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
NE NJ AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY...BUT
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL THERE DUE TO TRAINING OF CELLS.

WILL THEREFORE CANCEL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372. CANNOT RULE
OUT A WARNING FOR WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY GOING INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH THE LINGERING WARM
FRONT...SHOULD HELP REGENERATE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE...WITH
LIKELY POP FOR ALL OF NYC METRO AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

LOWS WILL BE NEAR 70 IN NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT LIKELY TO CAT POP FOR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WED MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS.
CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...BEST MOISTURE AXIS APPEARS TO
SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN TERMS OF AMOUNT DESTABILIZATION BEFORE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WELL INLAND...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL
A MARGINAL CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE PIVOTING EAST OF
THE REGION. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE LAGGING COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIR MASS.

HIGHS ON WED WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST...TO
LOWER 80S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO MID/UPPER 80S IN NYC AND NE NJ.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF TONIGHT...AT
LEAST OUTSIDE OF NYC...WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ON
SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH
PRECIPITATION...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST
OF THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE
WEDNESDAY.

VFR THIS EVENING. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN LOW END MVFR...BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 8-12Z. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL 8-12Z...BUT MOST LIKELY 12-15Z. ISO THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 14-15Z. ISO
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF CITY
TERMINALS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

S-SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE
E/SE OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE SW.
GUSTS 20-25 KT EXPECTED ACROSS CITY TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SHRA POSSIBLE POSSIBLE 2-4Z. IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE 8-12Z. START TIME OF WIND GUSTS WED AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF
BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SHRA POSSIBLE POSSIBLE 2-4Z. IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE 8-12Z. START TIME OF WIND GUSTS WED AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF
BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CIGS POSSIBLE 8-12Z. START TIME OF WIND
GUSTS WED AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CIGS POSSIBLE 8-12Z. START TIME OF WIND
GUSTS WED AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CIGS POSSIBLE 8-12Z. START TIME OF WIND
GUSTS WED AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CIGS POSSIBLE 8-12Z. START TIME OF WIND
GUSTS WED AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED.
.SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR SHORE WINDS IN THE NY BIGHT AND HARBOR CONTINUE TO GUST INTO
THE LOWER 20S.

OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS BY WED EVE. OTHERWISE QUIET
WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN NE NJ EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THROUGHOUT FROM LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. BASIN AVG OF RAIN IS AROUND A HALF
INCH...BUT LOCALLY 1 INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE. MOST LIKELY THREAT
WILL BE FOR MINOR URBAN FLOODING...BUT THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AND WESTERN LI SOUND...MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBGM 302251
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
651 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...
SVR TSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 8PM FOR NEPA AND SULLIVAN CO
NY...THOUGH AT THIS POINT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL /ESPECIALLY
PIKE COUNTY/ APPEARS TO THE BE MORE OF A CONCERN. IT IS LIKELY
THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THE WATCH AT 8PM AS
SCHEDULED...MEANWHILE...WE ALREADY HAVE A STATEMENT OUT FOR PIKE
COUNTY REGARDING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THAT AREA.

FURTHER NORTH...CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRETTY WIDELY SCATTERED THOUGH
WE DO HAVE A HEAVY RAINER CARRYING ACROSS NORTHERN ONONDAGA AT
THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...WELL MARKED WAVE NOW IN WESTERN PA WILL
MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 10PM-2AM TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS-EMBEDDED
THUNDER. IF THINGS HOLD TOGETHER...AS MENTIONED BELOW...SHORT
FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE NECESSARY FOR AREAS ALREADY
GETTING DECENT RAIN BEFOREHAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 PM...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE ERN
CWA FROM THE VCNTY OF SYR DOWN THROUGH THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION INTO
NE PA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST THROUGH EVENING.
ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY IS WIDESPREAD WITH JUST
SCATTERED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
BEST ACROSS NE PA AND SRN NY WHERE THE WATCH CURRENTLY RESIDES. BY
EARLY EVENING INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BOTH DECREASE,
REDUCING THE THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER. A MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH OHIO WILL LIFT NE AND ACROSS THE FA LATER THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE EVENING. DUE TO RECENT WET WEATHER IF THIS SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION TAKES AIM AT NE PA A SHORT FUSE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED.

ON WEDNESDAY...H5 TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FA
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON PERIOD. WIDESPREAD TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS BEST FROM I81 EAST WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE THE
LONGEST TIME TO DESTABILIZE. BULK SHEAR VALUES AND MID LEVEL FLOW
NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS TODAY BUT STORMS MAINLY EAST OF I81 COULD
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE THROUGH THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
OVER THE FA BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. THURSDAY WILL BE
COOL UNDER NW FLOW AND MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CNTRL
NY AND MID/UPR 70S OVER NE PA. ON FRIDAY, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TROF OVER LOWER ONTARIO WILL PRESS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY,
CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY OVER NY AND
PA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL REBUILD FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING INTO THE 80S. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIR INTO MONDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROF SWINGS INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, SOME WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN
19Z AND 01Z.

OVERNIGHT, LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG WILL SET UP OVER THE
TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z.

.OUTLOOK...

WED...SCATTERED SHRA-TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

THU - FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 302251
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
651 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...
SVR TSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 8PM FOR NEPA AND SULLIVAN CO
NY...THOUGH AT THIS POINT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL /ESPECIALLY
PIKE COUNTY/ APPEARS TO THE BE MORE OF A CONCERN. IT IS LIKELY
THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THE WATCH AT 8PM AS
SCHEDULED...MEANWHILE...WE ALREADY HAVE A STATEMENT OUT FOR PIKE
COUNTY REGARDING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THAT AREA.

FURTHER NORTH...CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRETTY WIDELY SCATTERED THOUGH
WE DO HAVE A HEAVY RAINER CARRYING ACROSS NORTHERN ONONDAGA AT
THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...WELL MARKED WAVE NOW IN WESTERN PA WILL
MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 10PM-2AM TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS-EMBEDDED
THUNDER. IF THINGS HOLD TOGETHER...AS MENTIONED BELOW...SHORT
FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE NECESSARY FOR AREAS ALREADY
GETTING DECENT RAIN BEFOREHAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 PM...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE ERN
CWA FROM THE VCNTY OF SYR DOWN THROUGH THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION INTO
NE PA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST THROUGH EVENING.
ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY IS WIDESPREAD WITH JUST
SCATTERED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
BEST ACROSS NE PA AND SRN NY WHERE THE WATCH CURRENTLY RESIDES. BY
EARLY EVENING INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BOTH DECREASE,
REDUCING THE THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER. A MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH OHIO WILL LIFT NE AND ACROSS THE FA LATER THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE EVENING. DUE TO RECENT WET WEATHER IF THIS SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION TAKES AIM AT NE PA A SHORT FUSE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED.

ON WEDNESDAY...H5 TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FA
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON PERIOD. WIDESPREAD TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS BEST FROM I81 EAST WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE THE
LONGEST TIME TO DESTABILIZE. BULK SHEAR VALUES AND MID LEVEL FLOW
NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS TODAY BUT STORMS MAINLY EAST OF I81 COULD
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE THROUGH THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
OVER THE FA BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. THURSDAY WILL BE
COOL UNDER NW FLOW AND MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CNTRL
NY AND MID/UPR 70S OVER NE PA. ON FRIDAY, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TROF OVER LOWER ONTARIO WILL PRESS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY,
CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY OVER NY AND
PA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL REBUILD FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING INTO THE 80S. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIR INTO MONDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROF SWINGS INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, SOME WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN
19Z AND 01Z.

OVERNIGHT, LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG WILL SET UP OVER THE
TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z.

.OUTLOOK...

WED...SCATTERED SHRA-TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

THU - FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP



000
FXUS61 KALY 302114
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
514 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...LONG ISLAND AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER WRN AND CNTRL NY. THE
BETTER ORGANIZED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS OVER
CNTRL-ERN PA MOVING INTO PARTS OF NJ. THIS AREA HAS BEEN IN THE
WARM SECTOR...AND HAD MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE COUPLED WITH MORE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR FCST AREA...THE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL TEND
TO BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX/SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF W-CNTRL PA...AND KEEP A THREAT
OF ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER ERN PA/NRN NJ...AS SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS
CONVECTION MAY MIGRATE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
BERKS...AND NW CT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER MAX REF PRODUCT
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY SE OF THE FCST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE
SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY
LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED.  AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.


&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 302114
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
514 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...LONG ISLAND AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER WRN AND CNTRL NY. THE
BETTER ORGANIZED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS OVER
CNTRL-ERN PA MOVING INTO PARTS OF NJ. THIS AREA HAS BEEN IN THE
WARM SECTOR...AND HAD MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE COUPLED WITH MORE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR FCST AREA...THE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL TEND
TO BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX/SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF W-CNTRL PA...AND KEEP A THREAT
OF ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER ERN PA/NRN NJ...AS SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS
CONVECTION MAY MIGRATE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
BERKS...AND NW CT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER MAX REF PRODUCT
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY SE OF THE FCST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE
SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY
LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED.  AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.


&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 302047
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
447 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL LINGER NEARBY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THE LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE TSTM WATCH 372 LOCALLY EXTENDED TO INCLUDE ESSEX AND UNION
COUNTIES IN NE NJ. SFC-BASED INSTABILITY DECREASES DRAMATICALLY AS
YOU GO FROM INTERIOR NORTHERN NJ TO NYC VIA ONSHORE FLOW OF
MARITIME AIR WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...BUT GIVEN STRUCTURE OF SOME
STORMS TO THE WEST DECIDED TO GO ONE TIER OF COUNTIES FARTHER EAST
FOR DYING GASPS AND/OR LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS OF STORMS TO THE WEST AS
THEY APPROACH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE
IT INTO LONG ISLAND OR SOUTHERN CT GIVEN STABLE LOW LEVEL MARITIME
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.

EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIE DOWN LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...THEN AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IN TANDEM
WITH THE LINGERING WARM FRONT SHOULD HELP REGENERATE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS LATE...WITH LIKELY POP FOR ALL OF NYC METRO AND CHANCE
ELSEWHERE.

LOWS WILL BE NEAR 70 IN NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT LIKELY TO CAT POP FOR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WED MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS.
CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...BEST MOISTURE AXIS APPEARS TO
SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN TERMS OF AMOUNT DESTABILIZATION BEFORE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WELL INLAND...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL
A MARGINAL CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE PIVOTING EAST OF
THE REGION. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE LAGGING COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIR MASS.

HIGHS ON WED WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST...TO
LOWER 80S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO MID/UPPER 80S IN NYC AND NE NJ.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF TONIGHT...AT
LEAST OUTSIDE OF NYC...WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ON
SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH
PRECIPITATION...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT.

VFR MOST TERMINALS INTO THE EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE
SHRA/TSTM AT KSWF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. KEWR AND KTEB MAY BE IMPACTED
AS WELL.

STRATUS DEVELOPS TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW END MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 6-14Z. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 14-15Z.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO
THE E/SE TONIGHT BEFORE VEERING AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE S.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE AIRPORT THROUGH 00Z...OR WOULD WEAKEN AS THEY
APPROACH. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY EVENING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: A FEW UPSTREAM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH THE AIRPORT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT
BY EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. ISOLATED THUNDER
THOUGH CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...SUB
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR SHORE WINDS IN THE NY BIGHT AND HARBOR CONTINUE TO GUST INTO
THE LOWER 20S.

OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS BY WED EVE. OTHERWISE QUIET
WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN NE NJ EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THROUGHOUT FROM LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. BASIN AVG OF RAIN IS AROUND A HALF
INCH...BUT LOCALLY 1 INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE. MOST LIKELY THREAT
WILL BE FOR MINOR URBAN FLOODING...BUT THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AND WESTERN LI SOUND...MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 302047
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
447 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL LINGER NEARBY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THE LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE TSTM WATCH 372 LOCALLY EXTENDED TO INCLUDE ESSEX AND UNION
COUNTIES IN NE NJ. SFC-BASED INSTABILITY DECREASES DRAMATICALLY AS
YOU GO FROM INTERIOR NORTHERN NJ TO NYC VIA ONSHORE FLOW OF
MARITIME AIR WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...BUT GIVEN STRUCTURE OF SOME
STORMS TO THE WEST DECIDED TO GO ONE TIER OF COUNTIES FARTHER EAST
FOR DYING GASPS AND/OR LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS OF STORMS TO THE WEST AS
THEY APPROACH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE
IT INTO LONG ISLAND OR SOUTHERN CT GIVEN STABLE LOW LEVEL MARITIME
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.

EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIE DOWN LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...THEN AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IN TANDEM
WITH THE LINGERING WARM FRONT SHOULD HELP REGENERATE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS LATE...WITH LIKELY POP FOR ALL OF NYC METRO AND CHANCE
ELSEWHERE.

LOWS WILL BE NEAR 70 IN NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT LIKELY TO CAT POP FOR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WED MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS.
CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...BEST MOISTURE AXIS APPEARS TO
SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN TERMS OF AMOUNT DESTABILIZATION BEFORE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WELL INLAND...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL
A MARGINAL CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE PIVOTING EAST OF
THE REGION. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE LAGGING COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIR MASS.

HIGHS ON WED WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST...TO
LOWER 80S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO MID/UPPER 80S IN NYC AND NE NJ.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF TONIGHT...AT
LEAST OUTSIDE OF NYC...WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ON
SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH
PRECIPITATION...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT.

VFR MOST TERMINALS INTO THE EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE
SHRA/TSTM AT KSWF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. KEWR AND KTEB MAY BE IMPACTED
AS WELL.

STRATUS DEVELOPS TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW END MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 6-14Z. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 14-15Z.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO
THE E/SE TONIGHT BEFORE VEERING AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE S.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE AIRPORT THROUGH 00Z...OR WOULD WEAKEN AS THEY
APPROACH. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY EVENING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: A FEW UPSTREAM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH THE AIRPORT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT
BY EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. ISOLATED THUNDER
THOUGH CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...SUB
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR SHORE WINDS IN THE NY BIGHT AND HARBOR CONTINUE TO GUST INTO
THE LOWER 20S.

OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS BY WED EVE. OTHERWISE QUIET
WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN NE NJ EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THROUGHOUT FROM LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. BASIN AVG OF RAIN IS AROUND A HALF
INCH...BUT LOCALLY 1 INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE. MOST LIKELY THREAT
WILL BE FOR MINOR URBAN FLOODING...BUT THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AND WESTERN LI SOUND...MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 302041
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
441 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL LINGER NEARBY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THE LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE TSTM WATCH 372 LOCALLY EXTENDED TO INCLUDE ESSEX AND UNION
COUNTIES IN NE NJ. SFC-BASED INSTABILITY DECREASES DRAMATICALLY AS
YOU GO FROM INTERIOR NORTHERN NJ TO NYC VIA ONSHORE FLOW OF
MARITIME AIR WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...BUT GIVEN STRUCTURE OF SOME
STORMS TO THE WEST DECIDED TO GO ONE TIER OF COUNTIES FARTHER EAST
FOR DYING GASPS AND/OR LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS OF STORMS TO THE WEST AS
THEY APPROACH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE
IT INTO LONG ISLAND OR SOUTHERN CT GIVEN STABLE LOW LEVEL MARITIME
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.

EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIE DOWN LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...THEN AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IN TANDEM
WITH THE LINGERING WARM FRONT SHOULD HELP REGENERATE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS LATE...WITH LIKELY POP FOR ALL OF NYC METRO AND CHANCE
ELSEWHERE.

LOWS WILL BE NEAR 70 IN NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT LIKELY TO CAT POP FOR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WED MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS.
CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...BEST MOISTURE AXIS APPEARS TO
SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN TERMS OF AMOUNT DESTABILIZATION BEFORE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WELL INLAND...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL
A MARGINAL CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE PIVOTING EAST OF
THE REGION. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE LAGGING COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIR MASS.

HIGHS ON WED WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST...TO
LOWER 80S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO MID/UPPER 80S IN NYC AND NE NJ.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF TONIGHT...AT
LEAST OUTSIDE OF NYC...WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ON
SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH
PRECIPITATION...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT.

VFR MOST TERMINALS INTO THE EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE
SHRA/TSTM AT KSWF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. KEWR AND KTEB MAY BE IMPACTED
AS WELL.

STRATUS DEVELOPS TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW END MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 6-14Z. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 14-15Z.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO
THE E/SE TONIGHT BEFORE VEERING AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE S.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE AIRPORT THROUGH 00Z...OR WOULD WEAKEN AS THEY
APPROACH. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY EVENING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: A FEW UPSTREAM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH THE AIRPORT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT
BY EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. ISOLATED THUNDER
THOUGH CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...SUB
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR SHORE WINDS IN THE NY BIGHT AND HARBOR CONTINUE TO GUST INTO
THE LOWER 20S.

OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS BY WED EVE. OTHERWISE QUIET
WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN NE NJ EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THROUGHOUT FROM LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. BASIN AVG OF RAIN IS AROUND A HALF
INCH...BUT LOCALLY 1 INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE. MOST LIKELY THREAT
WILL BE FOR MINOR URBAN FLOODING...BUT THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AND WESTERN LI SOUND...MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 302041
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
441 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL LINGER NEARBY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THE LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE TSTM WATCH 372 LOCALLY EXTENDED TO INCLUDE ESSEX AND UNION
COUNTIES IN NE NJ. SFC-BASED INSTABILITY DECREASES DRAMATICALLY AS
YOU GO FROM INTERIOR NORTHERN NJ TO NYC VIA ONSHORE FLOW OF
MARITIME AIR WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...BUT GIVEN STRUCTURE OF SOME
STORMS TO THE WEST DECIDED TO GO ONE TIER OF COUNTIES FARTHER EAST
FOR DYING GASPS AND/OR LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS OF STORMS TO THE WEST AS
THEY APPROACH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE
IT INTO LONG ISLAND OR SOUTHERN CT GIVEN STABLE LOW LEVEL MARITIME
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.

EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIE DOWN LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...THEN AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IN TANDEM
WITH THE LINGERING WARM FRONT SHOULD HELP REGENERATE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS LATE...WITH LIKELY POP FOR ALL OF NYC METRO AND CHANCE
ELSEWHERE.

LOWS WILL BE NEAR 70 IN NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT LIKELY TO CAT POP FOR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WED MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS.
CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...BEST MOISTURE AXIS APPEARS TO
SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN TERMS OF AMOUNT DESTABILIZATION BEFORE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WELL INLAND...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL
A MARGINAL CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE PIVOTING EAST OF
THE REGION. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE LAGGING COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIR MASS.

HIGHS ON WED WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST...TO
LOWER 80S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO MID/UPPER 80S IN NYC AND NE NJ.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF TONIGHT...AT
LEAST OUTSIDE OF NYC...WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ON
SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH
PRECIPITATION...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT.

VFR MOST TERMINALS INTO THE EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE
SHRA/TSTM AT KSWF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. KEWR AND KTEB MAY BE IMPACTED
AS WELL.

STRATUS DEVELOPS TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW END MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 6-14Z. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 14-15Z.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO
THE E/SE TONIGHT BEFORE VEERING AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE S.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE AIRPORT THROUGH 00Z...OR WOULD WEAKEN AS THEY
APPROACH. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY EVENING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: A FEW UPSTREAM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH THE AIRPORT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT
BY EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. ISOLATED THUNDER
THOUGH CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...SUB
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR SHORE WINDS IN THE NY BIGHT AND HARBOR CONTINUE TO GUST INTO
THE LOWER 20S.

OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS BY WED EVE. OTHERWISE QUIET
WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN NE NJ EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THROUGHOUT FROM LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. BASIN AVG OF RAIN IS AROUND A HALF
INCH...BUT LOCALLY 1 INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE. MOST LIKELY THREAT
WILL BE FOR MINOR URBAN FLOODING...BUT THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AND WESTERN LI SOUND...MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 302041
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
441 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL LINGER NEARBY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THE LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE TSTM WATCH 372 LOCALLY EXTENDED TO INCLUDE ESSEX AND UNION
COUNTIES IN NE NJ. SFC-BASED INSTABILITY DECREASES DRAMATICALLY AS
YOU GO FROM INTERIOR NORTHERN NJ TO NYC VIA ONSHORE FLOW OF
MARITIME AIR WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...BUT GIVEN STRUCTURE OF SOME
STORMS TO THE WEST DECIDED TO GO ONE TIER OF COUNTIES FARTHER EAST
FOR DYING GASPS AND/OR LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS OF STORMS TO THE WEST AS
THEY APPROACH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE
IT INTO LONG ISLAND OR SOUTHERN CT GIVEN STABLE LOW LEVEL MARITIME
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.

EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIE DOWN LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...THEN AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IN TANDEM
WITH THE LINGERING WARM FRONT SHOULD HELP REGENERATE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS LATE...WITH LIKELY POP FOR ALL OF NYC METRO AND CHANCE
ELSEWHERE.

LOWS WILL BE NEAR 70 IN NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT LIKELY TO CAT POP FOR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WED MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS.
CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...BEST MOISTURE AXIS APPEARS TO
SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN TERMS OF AMOUNT DESTABILIZATION BEFORE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WELL INLAND...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL
A MARGINAL CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE PIVOTING EAST OF
THE REGION. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE LAGGING COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIR MASS.

HIGHS ON WED WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST...TO
LOWER 80S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO MID/UPPER 80S IN NYC AND NE NJ.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF TONIGHT...AT
LEAST OUTSIDE OF NYC...WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ON
SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH
PRECIPITATION...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT.

VFR MOST TERMINALS INTO THE EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE
SHRA/TSTM AT KSWF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. KEWR AND KTEB MAY BE IMPACTED
AS WELL.

STRATUS DEVELOPS TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW END MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 6-14Z. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 14-15Z.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO
THE E/SE TONIGHT BEFORE VEERING AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE S.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE AIRPORT THROUGH 00Z...OR WOULD WEAKEN AS THEY
APPROACH. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY EVENING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: A FEW UPSTREAM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH THE AIRPORT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT
BY EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. ISOLATED THUNDER
THOUGH CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...SUB
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR SHORE WINDS IN THE NY BIGHT AND HARBOR CONTINUE TO GUST INTO
THE LOWER 20S.

OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS BY WED EVE. OTHERWISE QUIET
WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN NE NJ EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THROUGHOUT FROM LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. BASIN AVG OF RAIN IS AROUND A HALF
INCH...BUT LOCALLY 1 INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE. MOST LIKELY THREAT
WILL BE FOR MINOR URBAN FLOODING...BUT THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AND WESTERN LI SOUND...MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 302041
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
441 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL LINGER NEARBY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THE LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE TSTM WATCH 372 LOCALLY EXTENDED TO INCLUDE ESSEX AND UNION
COUNTIES IN NE NJ. SFC-BASED INSTABILITY DECREASES DRAMATICALLY AS
YOU GO FROM INTERIOR NORTHERN NJ TO NYC VIA ONSHORE FLOW OF
MARITIME AIR WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...BUT GIVEN STRUCTURE OF SOME
STORMS TO THE WEST DECIDED TO GO ONE TIER OF COUNTIES FARTHER EAST
FOR DYING GASPS AND/OR LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS OF STORMS TO THE WEST AS
THEY APPROACH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE
IT INTO LONG ISLAND OR SOUTHERN CT GIVEN STABLE LOW LEVEL MARITIME
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.

EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIE DOWN LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...THEN AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IN TANDEM
WITH THE LINGERING WARM FRONT SHOULD HELP REGENERATE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS LATE...WITH LIKELY POP FOR ALL OF NYC METRO AND CHANCE
ELSEWHERE.

LOWS WILL BE NEAR 70 IN NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT LIKELY TO CAT POP FOR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WED MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS.
CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...BEST MOISTURE AXIS APPEARS TO
SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN TERMS OF AMOUNT DESTABILIZATION BEFORE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WELL INLAND...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL
A MARGINAL CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE PIVOTING EAST OF
THE REGION. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE LAGGING COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIR MASS.

HIGHS ON WED WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST...TO
LOWER 80S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO MID/UPPER 80S IN NYC AND NE NJ.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF TONIGHT...AT
LEAST OUTSIDE OF NYC...WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ON
SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH
PRECIPITATION...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT.

VFR MOST TERMINALS INTO THE EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE
SHRA/TSTM AT KSWF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. KEWR AND KTEB MAY BE IMPACTED
AS WELL.

STRATUS DEVELOPS TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW END MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 6-14Z. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 14-15Z.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO
THE E/SE TONIGHT BEFORE VEERING AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE S.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE AIRPORT THROUGH 00Z...OR WOULD WEAKEN AS THEY
APPROACH. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY EVENING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: A FEW UPSTREAM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH THE AIRPORT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT
BY EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. ISOLATED THUNDER
THOUGH CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...SUB
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR SHORE WINDS IN THE NY BIGHT AND HARBOR CONTINUE TO GUST INTO
THE LOWER 20S.

OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS BY WED EVE. OTHERWISE QUIET
WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN NE NJ EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THROUGHOUT FROM LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. BASIN AVG OF RAIN IS AROUND A HALF
INCH...BUT LOCALLY 1 INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE. MOST LIKELY THREAT
WILL BE FOR MINOR URBAN FLOODING...BUT THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AND WESTERN LI SOUND...MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 302027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
427 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...LONG ISLAND AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER WRN AND CNTRL NY. THE
BETTER ORGANIZED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS OVER
CNTRL-ERN PA MOVING INTO PARTS OF NJ. THIS AREA HAS BEEN IN THE
WARM SECTOR...AND HAD MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE COUPLED WITH MORE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR FCST AREA...THE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL TEND
TO BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX/SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF W-CNTRL PA...AND KEEP A THREAT
OF ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER ERN PA/NRN NJ...AS SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS
CONVECTION MAY MIGRATE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
BERKS...AND NW CT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER MAX REF PRODUCT
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY SE OF THE FCST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE
SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY
LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED.  AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY..
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 1 AM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.62 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 302027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
427 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...LONG ISLAND AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER WRN AND CNTRL NY. THE
BETTER ORGANIZED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS OVER
CNTRL-ERN PA MOVING INTO PARTS OF NJ. THIS AREA HAS BEEN IN THE
WARM SECTOR...AND HAD MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE COUPLED WITH MORE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR FCST AREA...THE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL TEND
TO BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX/SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF W-CNTRL PA...AND KEEP A THREAT
OF ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER ERN PA/NRN NJ...AS SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS
CONVECTION MAY MIGRATE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
BERKS...AND NW CT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER MAX REF PRODUCT
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY SE OF THE FCST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE
SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY
LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED.  AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY..
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 1 AM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.62 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBGM 302011
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
411 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
4 PM UPDATE...SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 8PM FOR NE
PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE ERN CWA FROM
THE VCNTY OF SYR DOWN THROUGH THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION INTO NE PA.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST THROUGH EVENING.
ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY IS WIDESPREAD WITH JUST
SCATTERED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR
IS BEST ACROSS NE PA AND SRN NY WHERE THE WATCH CURRENTLY RESIDES.
BY EARLY EVENING INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BOTH
DECREASE, REDUCING THE THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER. A MOIST SW FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH OHIO WILL LIFT NE AND ACROSS THE FA
LATER THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE EVENING. DUE TO RECENT WET WEATHER IF THIS
SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION TAKES AIM AT NE PA A SHORT FUSE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

ON WEDNESDAY...H5 TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FA
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON PERIOD. WIDESPREAD TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS BEST FROM I81 EAST WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE THE
LONGEST TIME TO DESTABILIZE. BULK SHEAR VALUES AND MID LEVEL FLOW
NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS TODAY BUT STORMS MAINLY EAST OF I81 COULD
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE THROUGH THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
OVER THE FA BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. THURSDAY WILL BE
COOL UNDER NW FLOW AND MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CNTRL
NY AND MID/UPR 70S OVER NE PA. ON FRIDAY, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TROF OVER LOWER ONTARIO WILL PRESS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY,
CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY OVER NY AND
PA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL REBUILD FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING INTO THE 80S. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIR INTO MONDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROF SWINGS INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, SOME WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN
19Z AND 01Z.

OVERNIGHT, LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG WILL SET UP OVER THE
TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z.

.OUTLOOK...

WED...SCATTERED SHRA-TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

THU - FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 302011
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
411 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
4 PM UPDATE...SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 8PM FOR NE
PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE ERN CWA FROM
THE VCNTY OF SYR DOWN THROUGH THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION INTO NE PA.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST THROUGH EVENING.
ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY IS WIDESPREAD WITH JUST
SCATTERED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR
IS BEST ACROSS NE PA AND SRN NY WHERE THE WATCH CURRENTLY RESIDES.
BY EARLY EVENING INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BOTH
DECREASE, REDUCING THE THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER. A MOIST SW FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH OHIO WILL LIFT NE AND ACROSS THE FA
LATER THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE EVENING. DUE TO RECENT WET WEATHER IF THIS
SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION TAKES AIM AT NE PA A SHORT FUSE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

ON WEDNESDAY...H5 TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FA
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON PERIOD. WIDESPREAD TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS BEST FROM I81 EAST WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE THE
LONGEST TIME TO DESTABILIZE. BULK SHEAR VALUES AND MID LEVEL FLOW
NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS TODAY BUT STORMS MAINLY EAST OF I81 COULD
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE THROUGH THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
OVER THE FA BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. THURSDAY WILL BE
COOL UNDER NW FLOW AND MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CNTRL
NY AND MID/UPR 70S OVER NE PA. ON FRIDAY, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TROF OVER LOWER ONTARIO WILL PRESS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY,
CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY OVER NY AND
PA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL REBUILD FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING INTO THE 80S. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIR INTO MONDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROF SWINGS INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, SOME WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN
19Z AND 01Z.

OVERNIGHT, LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG WILL SET UP OVER THE
TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z.

.OUTLOOK...

WED...SCATTERED SHRA-TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

THU - FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP



000
FXUS61 KBUF 301955
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
355 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE
BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT. IN THE
PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE WARM FRONT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. A DECENT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PIVOTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A PRE-COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...EAST OF LAKE ERIE.
THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...OUR REGION WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT ONLY APPROACHING OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF AN ADDITIONAL WELL-DEFINED SURFACE-BASED
FOCUSING MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION...AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
INSTABILITY ALSO ON THE WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD A BIT
FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS
SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT
INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL
RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT WILL LARGELY BE A QUIET INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE REGION
WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY DIP CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
REGION TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EQUATORWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING IN A 20 POP ELSEWHERE...BUT OVERALL IT
SHOULD BE A LARGELY SUNNY AND MILD FOURTH OF JULY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILARLY MILD FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY MONDAY WE SHOULD START
TO SEE READINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MORE SO INTO TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
INDICATES ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE
TONIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...WILL BE MOVING
EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST CLOUD
DECKS WILL BE 3-5K FT...WITH 2K FT CIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER TONIGHT.

BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE ERIE.  OTHERWISE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS STATED... LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS/WAVES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN



000
FXUS61 KBUF 301955
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
355 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE
BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT. IN THE
PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE WARM FRONT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. A DECENT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PIVOTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A PRE-COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...EAST OF LAKE ERIE.
THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...OUR REGION WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT ONLY APPROACHING OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF AN ADDITIONAL WELL-DEFINED SURFACE-BASED
FOCUSING MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION...AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
INSTABILITY ALSO ON THE WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD A BIT
FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS
SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT
INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL
RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT WILL LARGELY BE A QUIET INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE REGION
WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY DIP CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
REGION TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EQUATORWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING IN A 20 POP ELSEWHERE...BUT OVERALL IT
SHOULD BE A LARGELY SUNNY AND MILD FOURTH OF JULY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILARLY MILD FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY MONDAY WE SHOULD START
TO SEE READINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MORE SO INTO TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
INDICATES ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE
TONIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...WILL BE MOVING
EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST CLOUD
DECKS WILL BE 3-5K FT...WITH 2K FT CIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER TONIGHT.

BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE ERIE.  OTHERWISE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS STATED... LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS/WAVES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301953
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A GREATER THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD HAVE AN
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH COOLING EFFECTS FROM RAINFALL
FURTHERING STABILITY. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT
NORTH AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.1 TO
0.5 INCH POSSIBLE.

WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING, MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z. VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD, ESP AT KSLK. AFTER 00Z SCT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE BUT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN DEGREE OF COVERAGE HAVE CARRIED VCSH MAINLY
AT NRN NY TERMINALS ONLY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD
EXIST. CIGS GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT
KSLK. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 6-12 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301953
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A GREATER THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD HAVE AN
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH COOLING EFFECTS FROM RAINFALL
FURTHERING STABILITY. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT
NORTH AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.1 TO
0.5 INCH POSSIBLE.

WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING, MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z. VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD, ESP AT KSLK. AFTER 00Z SCT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE BUT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN DEGREE OF COVERAGE HAVE CARRIED VCSH MAINLY
AT NRN NY TERMINALS ONLY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD
EXIST. CIGS GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT
KSLK. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 6-12 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301953
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A GREATER THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD HAVE AN
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH COOLING EFFECTS FROM RAINFALL
FURTHERING STABILITY. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT
NORTH AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.1 TO
0.5 INCH POSSIBLE.

WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING, MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z. VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD, ESP AT KSLK. AFTER 00Z SCT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE BUT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN DEGREE OF COVERAGE HAVE CARRIED VCSH MAINLY
AT NRN NY TERMINALS ONLY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD
EXIST. CIGS GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT
KSLK. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 6-12 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301953
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A GREATER THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD HAVE AN
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH COOLING EFFECTS FROM RAINFALL
FURTHERING STABILITY. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT
NORTH AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.1 TO
0.5 INCH POSSIBLE.

WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING, MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z. VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD, ESP AT KSLK. AFTER 00Z SCT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE BUT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN DEGREE OF COVERAGE HAVE CARRIED VCSH MAINLY
AT NRN NY TERMINALS ONLY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD
EXIST. CIGS GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT
KSLK. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 6-12 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301953
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A GREATER THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD HAVE AN
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH COOLING EFFECTS FROM RAINFALL
FURTHERING STABILITY. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT
NORTH AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.1 TO
0.5 INCH POSSIBLE.

WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING, MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z. VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD, ESP AT KSLK. AFTER 00Z SCT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE BUT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN DEGREE OF COVERAGE HAVE CARRIED VCSH MAINLY
AT NRN NY TERMINALS ONLY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD
EXIST. CIGS GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT
KSLK. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 6-12 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301953
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A GREATER THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD HAVE AN
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH COOLING EFFECTS FROM RAINFALL
FURTHERING STABILITY. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT
NORTH AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.1 TO
0.5 INCH POSSIBLE.

WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING, MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED
MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID
DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT
THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY.
INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING
ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.

THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND
21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE
THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE
THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS
WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER,
NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z. VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD, ESP AT KSLK. AFTER 00Z SCT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE BUT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN DEGREE OF COVERAGE HAVE CARRIED VCSH MAINLY
AT NRN NY TERMINALS ONLY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD
EXIST. CIGS GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT
KSLK. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 6-12 KTS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY
MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED
OR BROKEN.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS
OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT
MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.

AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK
IN 1922.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV



000
FXUS61 KBUF 301937
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
337 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE
BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT. IN THE
PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE WARM FRONT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. A DECENT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PIVOTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A PRE-COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...EAST OF LAKE ERIE.
THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...OUR REGION WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT ONLY APPROACHING OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF AN ADDITIONAL WELL-DEFINED SURFACE-BASED
FOCUSING MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION...AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
INSTABILITY ALSO ON THE WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD A BIT
FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS
SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AS
THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE MAY SEE A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS POP UP ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY AND
UNEVENTFUL... BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE FOR LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKENDS...MOTHER NATURE CANT HELP BUT TO KEEP SOME `FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT`.

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WIND SHIFT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE TO LOW CHC FROM CONTINUITY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY PCPN FROM THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY NIGHTFALL...AS THE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SATURDAY EVENING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD FAVOR
SUNDAY AS HAVING THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE LONG WEEKEND...AS AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATELY WARM AND HUMID EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 80.

ON MONDAY...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE PROBLEM-
FREE...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION WESTWARD TO LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE
TONIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...WILL BE MOVING
EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST CLOUD
DECKS WILL BE 3-5K FT...WITH 2K FT CIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER TONIGHT.

BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE ERIE.  OTHERWISE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS STATED... LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS/WAVES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN



000
FXUS61 KBUF 301937
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
337 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE
BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT. IN THE
PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE WARM FRONT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. A DECENT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PIVOTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A PRE-COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...EAST OF LAKE ERIE.
THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...OUR REGION WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT ONLY APPROACHING OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF AN ADDITIONAL WELL-DEFINED SURFACE-BASED
FOCUSING MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION...AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
INSTABILITY ALSO ON THE WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD A BIT
FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS
SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AS
THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE MAY SEE A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS POP UP ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY AND
UNEVENTFUL... BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE FOR LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKENDS...MOTHER NATURE CANT HELP BUT TO KEEP SOME `FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT`.

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WIND SHIFT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE TO LOW CHC FROM CONTINUITY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY PCPN FROM THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY NIGHTFALL...AS THE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SATURDAY EVENING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD FAVOR
SUNDAY AS HAVING THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE LONG WEEKEND...AS AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATELY WARM AND HUMID EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 80.

ON MONDAY...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE PROBLEM-
FREE...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION WESTWARD TO LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE
TONIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...WILL BE MOVING
EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST CLOUD
DECKS WILL BE 3-5K FT...WITH 2K FT CIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER TONIGHT.

BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE ERIE.  OTHERWISE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS STATED... LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS/WAVES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN



000
FXUS61 KBUF 301937
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
337 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE
BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT. IN THE
PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE WARM FRONT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. A DECENT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PIVOTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A PRE-COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...EAST OF LAKE ERIE.
THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...OUR REGION WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT ONLY APPROACHING OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF AN ADDITIONAL WELL-DEFINED SURFACE-BASED
FOCUSING MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION...AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
INSTABILITY ALSO ON THE WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD A BIT
FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS
SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AS
THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE MAY SEE A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS POP UP ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY AND
UNEVENTFUL... BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE FOR LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKENDS...MOTHER NATURE CANT HELP BUT TO KEEP SOME `FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT`.

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WIND SHIFT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE TO LOW CHC FROM CONTINUITY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY PCPN FROM THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY NIGHTFALL...AS THE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SATURDAY EVENING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD FAVOR
SUNDAY AS HAVING THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE LONG WEEKEND...AS AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATELY WARM AND HUMID EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 80.

ON MONDAY...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE PROBLEM-
FREE...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION WESTWARD TO LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE
TONIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...WILL BE MOVING
EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST CLOUD
DECKS WILL BE 3-5K FT...WITH 2K FT CIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER TONIGHT.

BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE ERIE.  OTHERWISE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS STATED... LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS/WAVES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN



000
FXUS61 KBUF 301937
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
337 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE
BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT. IN THE
PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE WARM FRONT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. A DECENT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PIVOTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A PRE-COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...EAST OF LAKE ERIE.
THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...OUR REGION WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT ONLY APPROACHING OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF AN ADDITIONAL WELL-DEFINED SURFACE-BASED
FOCUSING MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION...AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
INSTABILITY ALSO ON THE WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD A BIT
FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS
SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AS
THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE MAY SEE A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS POP UP ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY AND
UNEVENTFUL... BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE FOR LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKENDS...MOTHER NATURE CANT HELP BUT TO KEEP SOME `FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT`.

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WIND SHIFT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE TO LOW CHC FROM CONTINUITY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY PCPN FROM THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY NIGHTFALL...AS THE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SATURDAY EVENING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD FAVOR
SUNDAY AS HAVING THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE LONG WEEKEND...AS AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATELY WARM AND HUMID EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 80.

ON MONDAY...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE PROBLEM-
FREE...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION WESTWARD TO LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE
TONIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL TRO