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000
FXUS61 KBGM 231457
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1057 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AS COLD AND DRY AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE PRESSURE WILL BE TIGHT OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AGAIN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1100 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING... AND AS A RESULT THE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT THE DRY
AIR TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SFC... THE UPPR LVL ATTENDANT SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER MAINE AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN THE MSLP TIGHTENING OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE
GUSTY WINDS BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE TRUE DRY AIR TO
MOVE IN.

TONIGHT... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BREEZY AS THE MSLP WILL
STILL KEEP TIGHT AND DUE TO CAA THE 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR -6
C. THE DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY EARLY EVENING. THE MENTIONED ABOVE COMBINATION
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BECOME QUITE CHILLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM EDT UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD /NEAR
BOTTOM/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS SPECIFIC TO FIRE WEATHER...INCLUDING
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS.

THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN THURSDAY...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA-WESTERN NY/PA...AND THE DEEPENING LOW
OFFSHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DUE TO BUILDING HIGH
WILL BE GETTING ESTABLISHED...RESULTING SUNSHINE AND VERY DRY AIR
MIXING DOWN WITH THE GUSTY WINDS OF PRESSURE GRADIENT.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALREADY QUITE LOW WITH DEWPOINTS...YET IN THIS
KIND OF SITUATION MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH MIXING DOWN
ENOUGH OF THE DRY AIR. THUS I WENT EVEN LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE...REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS DEWPOINTS FOR
MAJORITY OF AREA /UPPER TEENS TOWARDS FINGER LAKES REGION/. WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...THIS YIELDS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BOTTOMING OUT INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S
PERCENT RANGE. DEFINITELY A STATIC ELECTRICITY KIND OF DAY IF
WALKING ON CARPET.

AS FOR THE NORTHWEST WINDS...THEY WILL BE HIGHEST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS...WITH SUSTAINED REACHING 20-25 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH. EVEN FURTHER WEST...FREQUENT GUSTS 20-30 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DECOUPLE QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES IN. THE INITIALLY CLEAR SKY WILL HELP QUICKLY DROP
TEMPERATURES TO LOWS OF UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGH THIN CLOUDS
WILL START SPREADING IN OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT...BUT
NOT BEFORE A GOOD PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
415 EDT AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SLOW ARRIVAL OF OCCLUDED FRONT
FRIDAY...CONNECTED WELL UPSTREAM TO A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI. BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SWEEP WEST TO EAST
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. NO
INSTABILITY ALOFT...THUS NO THUNDER POTENTIAL...AND RAIN AMOUNTS
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...PERHAPS ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO.

MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY...PUSHED BY A WAVE ROUNDING THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD YIELD SOME SHOWERS...AND I SIDED WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR
POPS IN CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE...HIGHEST NORTH. SECONDARY FRONT
WITH A BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MODELS EXHIBIT UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ECMWF ORIENTING A VERY NEGATIVELY
TILTED AXIS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...VERSUS THE GFS WITH
A LARGE STACKED CUTOFF LOW ENCOMPASSING MORE OF THE NORTHEAST. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW MORE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES YET
ALSO POTENTIAL RAIN FROM BAROCLINIC ZONE. GFS ONLY SLIGHT GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES YET ALSO MAINLY DRY AS WE GET INTO
UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST CUTOFF LOW...AND ANOTHER LARGE
ONE IN THE MIDWEST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...I WENT LOWER THAN WPC
GUIDANCE BY ONLY INTRODUCING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME...ALONG WITH GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
645 AM UPDATE...

IFR CIGS IN NY EXCEPT ELM ATTM WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 14 OR 15Z. MVFR
UNTIL 19 OR 20Z IN NY. AVP WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR
UNTIL 16Z. CIGS SCATTER AROUND 00Z. VFR TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
TO START...THEN NORTHWEST INCREASING TO SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KTS DURING THE DAY. THIS EVENING WINDS
DROPPING TO 10 KTS STILL OUT OF THE NW. AVP MAY GUST ALL NIGHT TO
20.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI MORN...VFR.

FRI AFTN-SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
415 AM EDT UPDATE...
HEADS UP...CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO BE APPROACHED OR EVEN
EXCEEDED THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS. FIRST...IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. WHILE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S PERCENT RANGE.
HOWEVER...A VERY DRY AIR MASS MOVING IN THURSDAY WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S PERCENT RANGE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME
AREAS GOT LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS FROM OUR MOST RECENT SYSTEM THAT
JUST CAME THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MOST ONLY RECEIVED VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS. ALSO...SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE SPOTTY...SO FUELS MAY BE
QUITE VULNERABLE TO QUICKLY DRYING OUT THURSDAY GIVEN THE FORECAST
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS IN NORTHEAST PA...AND THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS IN NY...WHERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
BREACHED. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL EASILY GET INTO CRITICAL LEVELS BUT WINDS WILL BE MORE
BORDERLINE SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR WATCH. MONITOR
FORECAST FOR UPDATES INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCH EXPANSIONS OR
WARNING ISSUANCES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ040-044-047-048-072.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...MDP







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000
FXUS61 KOKX 231447
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1047 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY TO OUR EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1045 AM UPDATE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING MAINLY EASTERN
CONNECTICUT AS OF LATE MORNING. THERE WERE ALSO A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS BACK IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...BUT THEY WERE MUCH LESS
WIDESPREAD.

POTENT SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL ALOFT WAS DIVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL BE TO OUR
NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE AT TIMES ACROSS EASTERN CT INTO THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER
WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW YORK/NORTHEAST CT...SHOULD SEE THE THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE EAST.

MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN CYCLONIC FLOW.
WHILE WE MAY SEE A FEW PEEKS OF SUN...CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
DOMINANT. IN ADDITION...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK/NORTHEAST NJ...WHERE A FEW GUSTS
OF 45 MPH CAN/T BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS JUST TOO MARGINAL
FOR A WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME...GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THU WHICH AT TIMES WILL
APPROACH 45 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WHILE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS WILL FEATURE LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MID
30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR THIS EVENING.

ON THU...RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT AND THE STRONG NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THU...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ONCE AGAIN...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION.
RIGHT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO WHERE
THE FRONT WILL EXACTLY SET UP...EITHER OVER OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

VFR. SOME SUB-VFR POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 14Z EAST OF THE CITY WITH
SCT -SHRA.

INCREASING NW WINDS TODAY. WINDS PEAK THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS MOSTLY
AROUND 35KT...HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES DEVELOP BY AFT AND CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS RH VALUES GRADUALLY
LOWER INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS
WILL GUST WELL IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WITH 1- AND 10- HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
ADDRESSED IN THE FWF AS WELL AS IN AN SPS.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THU AS EXTREME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT WITH STRONG NW WINDS AND RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-074-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...DW
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW



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000
FXUS61 KBUF 231445
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1045 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH
LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. THEN
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING CLEAR SKIES BUT CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE INTO NEW ENGLAND
TODAY...WHICH WILL BRING IN PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR FROM A
NORTHWEST FLOW. AS OF LATE MORNING...RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS LINGERING
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS TRICKY...WITH THE 12Z
BUFFALO SOUNDING AND IR SATELLITE SHOWING A BIT DEEPER MOISTURE
THAN FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SNOW SNOW
MIXING INTO THE RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO AN INCH OR SO ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...THERE SHOULD BE NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. SHOWERS
SHOULD END EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO
CLEARING SKIES. SUSPECT MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC IN
HOW QUICKLY WE CLEAR GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL NW FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES...BUT EVENTUALLY THE DRIER AIR SHOULD WIN OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH
THE SUN...WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW YORK STATE
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS HELPING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE MID
20S INLAND TO LOW 30S TOWARD THE LAKE SHORES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW...WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN QUARTER OF AN INCH...WILL
SUPPORT A DAY OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE A
BIT...BUT WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH...850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
THEREFORE...DESPITE THE SUNSHINE HIGHS LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE MID
50S IN MOST AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A NORTHWEST GRADIENT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG BOTH THE LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE COOLER.

INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED WITH THIS FIRST PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY DRY AMBIENT AIRMASS...BUT
TOP DOWN MOISTENING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING INTO THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO GROW IN COVERAGE DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PLUME/850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH. MEAGER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/SLIGHTLY POSITIVE SHOWALTER INDEX SUPPORTS LEAVING OUT
THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SETTING US UP FOR SNEAKY MILDER DAY WITH GOOD
MIXING. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD GET WELL INTO THE 60S...A FEW  70
PLUS READINGS ARE CERTAINLY IN PLAY IF SKIES CAN OPEN UP QUICKLY
ENOUGH...BUT THERE ARE SOME TIMING CONCERNS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SECONDARY FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE DETAILS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
FAIRLY WIDE SWINGS FROM RUN TO RUN. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY IS SEEN.

LOOKING IN MORE DETAIL...THE GFS REMAINS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT SWINGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS ALSO MUCH
STRONGER WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION. THE ECWMF IS FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM...
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF TO EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN. IN
SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON SOME SORT OF SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY BUT THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. WITH
THIS IN MIND HAVE JUST KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PULL BACK ON SATURDAY...WITH THE CORE OF
THE COOL DOWN LIKELY TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY THIS
TIME THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS MADE A DRAMATIC CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND BECOMES OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE NEW ECMWF BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH ITS
NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGH...WHICH ALLOWS THE CENTRAL CONUS CUTOFF TO
GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE
MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WE WILL DISCARD THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION AND KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY DRY. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE COOLEST DAY BEFORE SOME MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS MAINE
THIS MORNING WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PIVOTS
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. RAIN SHOWERS MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SWEEP ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SKC WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY MOVING
IN ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY LATE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS MAINE THIS MORNING BEFORE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHWESTERLIES...RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
LAKE ONTARIO INTO TONIGHT.

AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL WEAKEN WITH ADVISORIES EXPIRING FROM WEST TO EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL/SMITH
MARINE...APFFEL/RSH/SMITH






000
FXUS61 KOKX 231427
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1027 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY TO OUR EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1025 AM UPDATE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING MAINLY EASTERN
CONNECTICUT AS OF LATE MORNING. THERE WERE ALSO A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS BACK IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...BUT THEY WERE MUCH LESS
WIDESPREAD.

POTENT SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL ALOFT WAS DIVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL BE TO OUR
NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AT TIMES ACROSS EASTERN CT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...SHOULD SEE THE THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE EAST.

MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN CYCLONIC FLOW.
WHILE WE MAY SEE A FEW PEEKS OF SUN...CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
DOMINANT. IN ADDITION...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...WHERE A FEW GUSTS OF 45 MPH
CAN/T BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS JUST TOO MARGINAL FOR A
WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME...GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THU WHICH AT TIMES WILL
APPROACH 45 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WHILE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS WILL FEATURE LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MID
30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR THIS EVENING.

ON THU...RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT AND THE STRONG NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THU...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ONCE AGAIN...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION.
RIGHT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO WHERE
THE FRONT WILL EXACTLY SET UP...EITHER OVER OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

VFR. SOME SUB-VFR POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 14Z EAST OF THE CITY WITH
SCT -SHRA.

INCREASING NW WINDS TODAY. WINDS PEAK THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS MOSTLY
AROUND 35KT...HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES DEVELOP BY AFT AND CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS RH VALUES GRADUALLY
LOWER INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS
WILL GUST WELL IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WITH 1- AND 10- HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
ADDRESSED IN THE FWF AS WELL AS IN AN SPS.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THU AS EXTREME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT WITH STRONG NW WINDS AND RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-074-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...DW
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 231422
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1022 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FOR THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE
REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1012 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPS DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT AND CONT
TO MENTION LIKELY POPS...ESPECIALLY MTNS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF WITH ENHANCED RIBBON OF MID LVL RH
MOVING ACRS NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LLVL CAA
AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLW WL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
THIS AFTN ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND NORTHERN DACKS. THERMAL
PROFILES SHOW 85H TEMPS NEAR -2C THIS MORNING...BUT COOL TO -6C TO
-8C BY TONIGHT...SUPPORTING A DROP IN SNOW LVLS TO 1500 FEET
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...BEST RH WL BE DECREASING AS AIR BECOMES COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN THE LWR ELEVATIONS. STILL ANTICIPATING SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET THIS
AFTN AND DROPPING BTWN 1500 AND 2200 FEET OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS AND 40S VALLEYS
TODAY WITH LWR CT RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF REACHING THE LWR 50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE NE...UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR N/NW
FLOW TODAY. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER HIGHER TRRN DUE TO
UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE VALLEY WARM
ENOUGH FOR -SHRA. BUT HIGHER TRRN WILL SEE SOME RASN MIX. WINDS
MAY ALSO BECM GUSTY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS 40-50KT JET
AT 850MB EXTENDS INTO THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FA. EXPECT QPF AMTS
AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL PSBL OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNGT ACROSS THE
NEK.

CLOUDY SKIES FROM LLVL MOISTURE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER N/NW FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
40S-L50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S AT THE SUMMITS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...LINGERING MOSTLY IN THE NEK IN THE FORM OF RASN MIX AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE L-M30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING
COINCIDING WILL LEAD TO 925MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 2C-3C THURSDAY.
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BUT CONTINUED N/NW FLOW WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE U40S-M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S-L40S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH WEDNESDAYS 850MB JET EWD...AT 30-45KTS
OVER SRN AND ERN VT. CLOSER TO THE SFC...925MB WINDS FOR THIS
AREA AROUND 28-35KTS. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND GUSTY WINDS
PSBL...FINER FUELS WILL DRY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
FA...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH QPF RESULTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NGT...WINDS SUBSIDE WITH RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION
AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN COLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS...20S-L30S.
WARMTH REBOUNDS ON FRIDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING 7C-9C IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NGT. MAX TEMPS WILL SEE U50S-L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
FROM A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT... SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS UP TO LIKELY. ON SATURDAY...ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SHARPER WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF MODEL AND ALSO HAS THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. AREA TO REMAIN
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SUGGESTING
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS...LEADING TO LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY. GFS
MODEL HAS THE REGION IN AN OMEGA BLOCK ON TUESDAY WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MEAN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF MODEL HAS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY WELL SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WITH AN
OPEN TROUGH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SO
EXPECTING NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE
FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS. SUNDAY...MAINLY
VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/JN
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/TABER








  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 231302
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
902 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX
IN ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS
WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
BLUSTERY TODAY. TONIGHT A BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS AND
TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT THE
BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 900 AM EDT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE BLOSSOMED IN
EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A COMPACT
UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
RADAR INDICATING SOME MODERATE BURSTS OF RAINFALL JUST WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AT THIS HOUR. WILL RAISE POPS TO
BETWEEN 60-80 PERCENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS THE
UPPER LOW QUICKLY PULLS AWAY. WILL DECREASE POPS TO CHANCE RANGE
AFTER 1 PM.

MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE RAIN. HOWEVER...IT MIGHT BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS...ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS. ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
REAL ACCUMULATIONS...MAYBE A COATING ON SOME GRASSY AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SUNSHINE IN THE VALLEYS AREAS
ESPECIALLY TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION BY LATE IN THE
DAY. DUE TO COOL AIR AND ALOFT THERE STILL COULD BE FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...MID 50S MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 30-40 MPH
BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE USUAL PLACES OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL MOVE BY WELL TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT
WILL "CAPTURE" A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS PROCESS WILL
STEEPEN THE GRADIENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH
MORE WIND. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN -4 TO -8 C
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL NOT DECOUPLE...IT WILL TURN
COLD AS THE SKY GENERALLY CLEARS. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE WIND WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL...MAKING APPARENT TEMPERATURES FEEL ABOUT 10
DEGREES COLDER.

THURSDAY WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE TOWARD 0C. THE STIFF BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH ONCE MORE...WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH OR BETTER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...CLIMBING TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OCEAN STORM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO LOOSE IT
GRIP ON OUR REGION. THE WIND WILL RELAX. THERE MIGHT BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING LATE BUT EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE MORE
OPPORTUNITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE CONTINUED WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY...THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THAT
RAIN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT...WILL REACH THE AREA. THE
00Z GFS AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THE 00Z EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND...WERE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH RAIN NOT
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK.

FOR NOW...WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...LOWING CHANCES
TO SLIGHT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH LOW CHANCES TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW FAST RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION
WILL HELP DICTATE HOW MILD IT GETS. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE THINKING
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VALLEYS FURTHER EAST...WHILE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST AS WELL. IF THE RAIN WERE TO COME IN FASTER...THESE NUMBERS
WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKING
PATTERN THAT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  THIS WOULD PLACE
THE HIGHER CHC-SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.
THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS LATEST NEW TRENDS ARE FOR A
NOW A DRIER SUNDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE WILL LOWER POPS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 0C WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.  THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A LESS PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GGEM/GFS/DGEX WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
WET CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW...WITH A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING AND A DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ADVECTING NORTHWARD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WE LEAN TOWARD THE
ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE /SEE PMDEPD FOR FURTHER DETAILS/.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING WINDS...MVFR CIGS AND COVERAGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
THE MAIN THEMES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

MAIN UPPER LOW WAS JUST MOVING EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER THIS EARLY
MORNING.  UPON ITS PASSAGE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
THOSE MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST WITH A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THOSE CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CLIMBS.  THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE KPSF WHERE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL.

WIND MAGNITUDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THAT AFOREMENTIONED MIXING LAYER CLIMBS.  GUSTS APPROACHING
30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY...

WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT...AS OF 430 AM EDT...MOST AREAS DID NOT COME CLOSE TO
REACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW MOVES THROUGH EARLY...EXITING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE SHOWERS (EVEN WHEN COMBINED WITH
THOSE OF LAST NIGHT) WILL ADD UP TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT...GENERALLY IN THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH TO A BREEZE TONIGHT BUT IN MOST
PLACES...WILL NOT BECOME LIGHT. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH THOSE HIGHER EVENING GUSTS. A FULL RECOVER IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS RH VALUES PEAK AROUND 75 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES.

THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SUNSHINE WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH ABOVE 50F (EXCEPT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT). A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL STILL BE
THERE...GUSTING 25-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH
VALUES LOOK TO TUMBLE INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS (AROUND 30 SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS) BUT MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD. IT WILL BE MORE THAN FIVE
DAYS WITHOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION.


OUR OFFICE WILL COORDINATE WITH THE STATE LIAISON OFFICIALS
CONCERNING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 231141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FOR THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE
REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 635 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT LLVL CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
MORNING TEMPS MILD...GENERALLY IN THE U30S-M40S. ISOLATED TO SCT
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO ERN NY/NERN NJ. WITH WIND FLOW PICKING UP OUT OF THE
NW...EXPECT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SOME
SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TRRN TODAY AS SATELLITE IMGY SHOWS
MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXTENDING WELL UPSTREAM. FINAL PUSH FROM ANOTHER
UPPER LVL VORT WONT REACH THE REGION TIL THIS EVENING...KEEPING
THREAT OF PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE NE...UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR N/NW
FLOW TODAY. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER HIGHER TRRN DUE TO
UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE VALLEY WARM
ENOUGH FOR -SHRA. BUT HIGHER TRRN WILL SEE SOME RASN MIX. WINDS
MAY ALSO BECM GUSTY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS 40-50KT JET
AT 850MB EXTENDS INTO THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FA. EXPECT QPF AMTS
AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL PSBL OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNGT ACROSS THE
NEK.

CLOUDY SKIES FROM LLVL MOISTURE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER N/NW FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
40S-L50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S AT THE SUMMITS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...LINGERING MOSTLY IN THE NEK IN THE FORM OF RASN MIX AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE L-M30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING
COINCIDING WILL LEAD TO 925MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 2C-3C THURSDAY.
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BUT CONTINUED N/NW FLOW WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE U40S-M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S-L40S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH WEDNESDAYS 850MB JET EWD...AT 30-45KTS
OVER SRN AND ERN VT. CLOSER TO THE SFC...925MB WINDS FOR THIS
AREA AROUND 28-35KTS. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND GUSTY WINDS
PSBL...FINER FUELS WILL DRY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
FA...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH QPF RESULTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NGT...WINDS SUBSIDE WITH RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION
AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN COLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS...20S-L30S.
WARMTH REBOUNDS ON FRIDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING 7C-9C IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NGT. MAX TEMPS WILL SEE U50S-L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
FROM A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT... SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS UP TO LIKELY. ON SATURDAY...ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SHARPER WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF MODEL AND ALSO HAS THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. AREA TO REMAIN
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SUGGESTING
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS...LEADING TO LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY. GFS
MODEL HAS THE REGION IN AN OMEGA BLOCK ON TUESDAY WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MEAN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF MODEL HAS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY WELL SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WITH AN
OPEN TROUGH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SO
EXPECTING NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE
FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS. SUNDAY...MAINLY
VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/JN
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/TABER







000
FXUS61 KBUF 231136
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
736 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST AND CLEAR OUR SKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL
TODAY...MERCURY LEVELS WILL STEADILY CLIMB DURING THE COURSE OF THE
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE TROUGH/SECONDARY COLD FRONT REMAINS E-W ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO TO A PARENT LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MAINE AS OF 11Z THIS
MORNING. AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS PIVOTING
SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK FROM LAKE ONTARIO/ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH SOME UPSLOPE
FLOW OFF THE LAKE. AVERAGE RAIN TOTALS THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL RUN
0.10-0.25 INCHES. THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY PIVOT JUST
TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES WITH ONLY A CHANCE
FOR SOME DRIZZLE WITH A MOIST FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THE TEMP DROPS TO OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING AND SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE/WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE
BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
BELOW THE PRIME DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND WARMER THAN -10C
WHICH SUPPORTS DRIZZLE OVER PURE SNOW.

LATER THIS MORNING EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT TO PIVOT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE OR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN THE
UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE LAKES. A RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS WILL
HELP ADVECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS NEW YORK WHICH WILL ACT TO
ERODE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS FROM THE LAKE SHORES INLAND. SUNSHINE
SHOULD BREAK OUT ACROSS WNY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS CNY BY
EARLY EVENING. THE COLDER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WILL
KEEP OUR SURFACE TEMPS ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS NOT EXPECTED TO
BREAK OUT OF THE 40S OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A BREEZY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN CHILLIER WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE MID 30S.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW YORK STATE WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
FALLING DEWPOINTS HELPING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE MID 20S
INLAND TO LOW 30S TOWARD THE LAKE SHORES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW...WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN QUARTER OF AN INCH...WILL
SUPPORT A DAY OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE A
BIT...BUT WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH...850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
THEREFORE...DESPITE THE SUNSHINE HIGHS LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE MID
50S IN MOST AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A NORTHWEST GRADIENT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG BOTH THE LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE COOLER.

INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED WITH THIS FIRST PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY DRY AMBIENT AIRMASS...BUT
TOP DOWN MOISTENING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING INTO THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO GROW IN COVERAGE DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PLUME/850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH. MEAGER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/SLIGHTLY POSITIVE SHOWALTER INDEX SUPPORTS LEAVING OUT
THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SETTING US UP FOR SNEAKY MILDER DAY WITH GOOD
MIXING. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD GET WELL INTO THE 60S...A FEW  70
PLUS READINGS ARE CERTAINLY IN PLAY IF SKIES CAN OPEN UP QUICKLY
ENOUGH...BUT THERE ARE SOME TIMING CONCERNS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SECONDARY FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE DETAILS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
FAIRLY WIDE SWINGS FROM RUN TO RUN. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY IS SEEN.

LOOKING IN MORE DETAIL...THE GFS REMAINS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT SWINGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS ALSO MUCH
STRONGER WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION. THE ECWMF IS FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM...
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF TO EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN. IN
SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON SOME SORT OF SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY BUT THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. WITH
THIS IN MIND HAVE JUST KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PULL BACK ON SATURDAY...WITH THE CORE OF
THE COOL DOWN LIKELY TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY THIS
TIME THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS MADE A DRAMATIC CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND BECOMES OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE NEW ECMWF BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH ITS
NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGH...WHICH ALLOWS THE CENTRAL CONUS CUTOFF TO
GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE
MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WE WILL DISCARD THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION AND KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY DRY. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE COOLEST DAY BEFORE SOME MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS MAINE
THIS MORNING WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PIVOTS
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL SWEEP ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIZZLE/SHRA AND LOW CIGS
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES OUT TO
VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SKC WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY MOVING IN ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY LATE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS MAINE THIS MORNING BEFORE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHWESTERLIES ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...RESULTING IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL OF THE NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS.

AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL WEAKEN WITH ADVISORIES EXPIRING FROM WEST TO EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KOKX 231133
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
733 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR EASTERN LI/SE CT WITH A FEW POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS ASSOC WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT. THE
LATTER OF WHICH WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...
AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THU AS IT IT TRACKS
SLOWLY EAST, THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER A STRONG NW FLOW WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY THIS AFT. WINDS LOOK TO FALL JUST SHY OF
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY STRATA CU WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
PREFERRED THE COLDER MET MOS.

THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG NW WINDS AND DRYING OF THE AIR MASS
WILL ELEVATE THE RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME...GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THU WHICH AT TIMES WILL
APPROACH 45 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WHILE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS WILL FEATURE LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MID
30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR THIS EVENING.

ON THU...RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT AND THE STRONG NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THU...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ONCE AGAIN...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION.
RIGHT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO WHERE
THE FRONT WILL EXACTLY SET UP...EITHER OVER OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

VFR. SOME SUB-VFR POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 14Z EAST OF THE CITY WITH
SCT -SHRA.

INCREASING NW WINDS TODAY. WINDS PEAK THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS MOSTLY
AROUND 35KT...HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES DEVELOP BY AFT AND CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS RH VALUES GRADUALLY
LOWER INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS
WILL GUST WELL IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WITH 1- AND 10- HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
ADDRESSED IN THE FWF AS WELL AS IN AN SPS.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THU AS EXTREME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT WITH STRONG NW WINDS AND RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW







000
FXUS61 KBGM 231101
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
701 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE COOLER AND SHOWERY TODAY. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND
COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MORE SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
UPPED POPS TO CAT ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE RAIN SHOWERS ARE STEADY.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN. CURRENT TEMPS COOLER THAN EXPECTED. A
FEW HOURS OF SNOW OR MIX STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS MORNING.

230 AM UPDATE...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER LAKE ONTARIO PUSHING SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NY ATTM. BACKED UP BY A STRONG DIGGING SHORT WAVE ALOFT.
SO FAR ONLY RAIN SHOWERS BEING REPORTED IN THE LAKE PLAIN BUT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S SO SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION...
ESPECIALLY ON THE ROADS. LATE MORNING WARMS ENOUGH THAT PRECIP
WILL BE ONLY RAIN. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO UPSTATE NY
AND THE NRN TIER OF PA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOSTLY LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH. MORE WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL NOT THAT
MUCH.

DRIER AIR COMES IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH. SKIES
WILL QUICKLY CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS DROP BUT
CAA STILL OCCURRING IN THE EVENING. WITH ALL THE DRY AIR SKIES
WILL CLEAR. TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM EDT UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD /NEAR
BOTTOM/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS SPECIFIC TO FIRE WEATHER...INCLUDING
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS.

THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN THURSDAY...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA-WESTERN NY/PA...AND THE DEEPENING LOW
OFFSHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DUE TO BUILDING HIGH
WILL BE GETTING ESTABLISHED...RESULTING SUNSHINE AND VERY DRY AIR
MIXING DOWN WITH THE GUSTY WINDS OF PRESSURE GRADIENT.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALREADY QUITE LOW WITH DEWPOINTS...YET IN THIS
KIND OF SITUATION MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH MIXING DOWN
ENOUGH OF THE DRY AIR. THUS I WENT EVEN LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE...REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS DEWPOINTS FOR
MAJORITY OF AREA /UPPER TEENS TOWARDS FINGER LAKES REGION/. WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...THIS YIELDS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BOTTOMING OUT INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S
PERCENT RANGE. DEFINITELY A STATIC ELECTRICITY KIND OF DAY IF
WALKING ON CARPET.

AS FOR THE NORTHWEST WINDS...THEY WILL BE HIGHEST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS...WITH SUSTAINED REACHING 20-25 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH. EVEN FURTHER WEST...FREQUENT GUSTS 20-30 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DECOUPLE QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES IN. THE INITIALLY CLEAR SKY WILL HELP QUICKLY DROP
TEMPERATURES TO LOWS OF UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGH THIN CLOUDS
WILL START SPREADING IN OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT...BUT
NOT BEFORE A GOOD PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
415 EDT AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SLOW ARRIVAL OF OCCLUDED FRONT
FRIDAY...CONNECTED WELL UPSTREAM TO A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI. BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SWEEP WEST TO EAST
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. NO
INSTABILITY ALOFT...THUS NO THUNDER POTENTIAL...AND RAIN AMOUNTS
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...PERHAPS ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO.

MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY...PUSHED BY A WAVE ROUNDING THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD YIELD SOME SHOWERS...AND I SIDED WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR
POPS IN CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE...HIGHEST NORTH. SECONDARY FRONT
WITH A BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MODELS EXHIBIT UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ECMWF ORIENTING A VERY NEGATIVELY
TILTED AXIS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...VERSUS THE GFS WITH
A LARGE STACKED CUTOFF LOW ENCOMPASSING MORE OF THE NORTHEAST. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW MORE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES YET
ALSO POTENTIAL RAIN FROM BAROCLINIC ZONE. GFS ONLY SLIGHT GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES YET ALSO MAINLY DRY AS WE GET INTO
UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST CUTOFF LOW...AND ANOTHER LARGE
ONE IN THE MIDWEST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...I WENT LOWER THAN WPC
GUIDANCE BY ONLY INTRODUCING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME...ALONG WITH GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
645 AM UPDATE...

IFR CIGS IN NY EXCEPT ELM ATTM WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 14 OR 15Z. MVFR
UNTIL 19 OR 20Z IN NY. AVP WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR
UNTIL 16Z. CIGS SCATTER AROUND 00Z. VFR TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
TO START...THEN NORTHWEST INCREASING TO SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KTS DURING THE DAY. THIS EVENING WINDS
DROPPING TO 10 KTS STILL OUT OF THE NW. AVP MAY GUST ALL NIGHT TO
20.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI MORN...VFR.

FRI AFTN-SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
415 AM EDT UPDATE...
HEADS UP...CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO BE APPROACHED OR EVEN
EXCEEDED THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS. FIRST...IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. WHILE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S PERCENT RANGE.
HOWEVER...A VERY DRY AIR MASS MOVING IN THURSDAY WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S PERCENT RANGE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME
AREAS GOT LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS FROM OUR MOST RECENT SYSTEM THAT
JUST CAME THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MOST ONLY RECEIVED VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS. ALSO...SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE SPOTTY...SO FUELS MAY BE
QUITE VULNERABLE TO QUICKLY DRYING OUT THURSDAY GIVEN THE FORECAST
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS IN NORTHEAST PA...AND THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS IN NY...WHERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
BREACHED. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL EASILY GET INTO CRITICAL LEVELS BUT WINDS WILL BE MORE
BORDERLINE SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR WATCH. MONITOR
FORECAST FOR UPDATES INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCH EXPANSIONS OR
WARNING ISSUANCES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ040-044-047-048-072.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 231043
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
643 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR EASTERN LI/SE CT WITH A FEW POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS ASSOC WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT. THE
LATTER OF WHICH WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...
AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THU AS IT IT TRACKS
SLOWLY EAST, THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER A STRONG NW FLOW WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY THIS AFT. WINDS LOOK TO FALL JUST SHY OF
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY STRATA CU WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
PREFERRED THE COLDER MET MOS.

THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG NW WINDS AND DRYING OF THE AIR MASS
WILL ELEVATE THE RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME...GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THU WHICH AT TIMES WILL
APPROACH 45 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WHILE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS WILL FEATURE LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MID
30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR THIS EVENING.

ON THU...RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT AND THE STRONG NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THU...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ONCE AGAIN...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION.
RIGHT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO WHERE
THE FRONT WILL EXACTLY SET UP...EITHER OVER OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

VFR. SOME SUB-VFR POSSIBLE BEFORE 11-12Z EAST OF THE CITY WITH ISO
-SHRA AND REDUCED VSBYS PRECEDING WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE WNW.

INCREASING NW WINDS TODAY. WINDS PEAK THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS MOSTLY
AROUND 35KT...HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN025-035 POSSIBLE AT TIMES UNTIL 11-12Z.
WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT
TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS FAVORING NORTH OF 310
MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. NW G25KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES DEVELOP BY AFT AND CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS RH VALUES GRADUALLY
LOWER INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS
WILL GUST WELL IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WITH 1- AND 10- HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
ADDRESSED IN THE FWF AS WELL AS IN AN SPS.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THU AS EXTREME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT WITH STRONG NW WINDS AND RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW







000
FXUS61 KALY 231037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.
SOME OF THESE MIGHT EVEN BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY. TONIGHT A BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS AND TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT THE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 630 AM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER THE REGION AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW (20,000 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND) WAS MOVE JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF ALBANY. THIS SYSTEM WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONTINUATION OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...IT MIGHT BE
JUST COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS. ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS (MAYBE A
COATING ON SOME GRASSY AREAS).

TEMPERATURES THIS EARLY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S ACROSS
VALLEY LOCATIONS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND EVEN IN THE VALLEYS...WILL NOT RISE MUCH AT ALL.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SUNSHINE IN THE VALLEYS AREAS
(ESPECIALLY TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS) LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION BY DAY/
END. DUE TO COOL AIR AND ALOFT THERE STILL COULD BE FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS VERMONT. IT WILL BE
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THESE OVER THE ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS TO FALL AS SNOW...BUT LIKELY NOT
ACCUMULATION MUCH IF AT ALL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CREST ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...50 TO 55 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...UPPER 50S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 30-45 MPH
BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE USUAL PLACES
(CAPITAL DISTRICT/HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL MOVE BY WELL TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT
WILL "CAPTURE" A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS PROCESS WILL
STEEPEN THE GRADIENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH
MORE WIND. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN -4 TO -8 C
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL NOT DECOUPLE...IT WILL TURN
COLD AS THE SKY GENERALLY CLEARS. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE WIND WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL...MAKING APPARENT TEMPERATURES FEEL ABOUT 10
DEGREES COLDER.

THURSDAY WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE TOWARD 0C. THE STIFF BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH ONCE MORE...WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH OR BETTER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...CLIMBING TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OCEAN STORM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO LOOSE IT
GRIP ON OUR REGION. THE WIND WILL RELAX. THERE MIGHT BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING LATE BUT EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE MORE
OPPORTUNITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE CONTINUED WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY...THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THAT
RAIN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT...WILL REACH THE AREA. THE
00Z GFS AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THE 00Z EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND...WERE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH RAIN NOT
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK.

FOR NOW...WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...LOWING CHANCES
TO SLIGHT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH LOW CHANCES TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW FAST RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION
WILL HELP DICTATE HOW MILD IT GETS. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE THINKING
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VALLEYS FURTHER EAST...WHILE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST AS WELL. IF THE RAIN WERE TO COME IN FASTER...THESE NUMBERS
WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKING
PATTERN THAT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  THIS WOULD PLACE
THE HIGHER CHC-SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.
THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS LATEST NEW TRENDS ARE FOR A
NOW A DRIER SUNDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE WILL LOWER POPS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 0C WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.  THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A LESS PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GGEM/GFS/DGEX WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
WET CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW...WITH A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING AND A DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ADVECTING NORTHWARD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WE LEAN TOWARD THE
ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE /SEE PMDEPD FOR FURTHER DETAILS/.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING WINDS...MVFR CIGS AND COVERAGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
THE MAIN THEMES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

MAIN UPPER LOW WAS JUST MOVING EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER THIS EARLY
MORNING.  UPON ITS PASSAGE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
THOSE MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST WITH A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THOSE CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CLIMBS.  THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE KPSF WHERE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL.

WIND MAGNITUDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THAT AFOREMENTIONED MIXING LAYER CLIMBS.  GUSTS APPROACHING
30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY...

WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT...AS OF 430 AM EDT...MOST AREAS DID NOT COME CLOSE TO
REACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW MOVES THROUGH EARLY...EXITING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE SHOWERS (EVEN WHEN COMBINED WITH
THOSE OF LAST NIGHT) WILL ADD UP TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT...GENERALLY IN THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH TO A BREEZE TONIGHT BUT IN MOST
PLACES...WILL NOT BECOME LIGHT. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH THOSE HIGHER EVENING GUSTS. A FULL RECOVER IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS RH VALUES PEAK AROUND 75 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES.

THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SUNSHINE WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH ABOVE 50F (EXCEPT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT). A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL STILL BE
THERE...GUSTING 25-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH
VALUES LOOK TO TUMBLE INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS (AROUND 30 SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS) BUT MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD. IT WILL BE MORE THAN FIVE
DAYS WITHOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION.


OUR OFFICE WILL COORDINATE WITH THE STATE LIAISON OFFICIALS
CONCERNING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL










000
FXUS61 KBTV 231035
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FOR THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE
REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 635 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT LLVL CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
MORNING TEMPS MILD...GENERALLY IN THE U30S-M40S. ISOLATED TO SCT
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO ERN NY/NERN NJ. WITH WIND FLOW PICKING UP OUT OF THE
NW...EXPECT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SOME
SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TRRN TODAY AS SATELLITE IMGY SHOWS
MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXTENDING WELL UPSTREAM. FINAL PUSH FROM ANOTHER
UPPER LVL VORT WONT REACH THE REGION TIL THIS EVENING...KEEPING
THREAT OF PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE NE...UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR N/NW
FLOW TODAY. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER HIGHER TRRN DUE TO
UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE VALLEY WARM
ENOUGH FOR -SHRA. BUT HIGHER TRRN WILL SEE SOME RASN MIX. WINDS
MAY ALSO BECM GUSTY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS 40-50KT JET
AT 850MB EXTENDS INTO THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FA. EXPECT QPF AMTS
AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL PSBL OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNGT ACROSS THE
NEK.

CLOUDY SKIES FROM LLVL MOISTURE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER N/NW FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
40S-L50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S AT THE SUMMITS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...LINGERING MOSTLY IN THE NEK IN THE FORM OF RASN MIX AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE L-M30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING
COINCIDING WILL LEAD TO 925MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 2C-3C THURSDAY.
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BUT CONTINUED N/NW FLOW WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE U40S-M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S-L40S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH WEDNESDAYS 850MB JET EWD...AT 30-45KTS
OVER SRN AND ERN VT. CLOSER TO THE SFC...925MB WINDS FOR THIS
AREA AROUND 28-35KTS. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND GUSTY WINDS
PSBL...FINER FUELS WILL DRY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
FA...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH QPF RESULTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NGT...WINDS SUBSIDE WITH RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION
AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN COLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS...20S-L30S.
WARMTH REBOUNDS ON FRIDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING 7C-9C IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NGT. MAX TEMPS WILL SEE U50S-L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
FROM A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT... SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS UP TO LIKELY. ON SATURDAY...ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SHARPER WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF MODEL AND ALSO HAS THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. AREA TO REMAIN
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SUGGESTING
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS...LEADING TO LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY. GFS
MODEL HAS THE REGION IN AN OMEGA BLOCK ON TUESDAY WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MEAN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF MODEL HAS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY WELL SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WITH AN
OPEN TROUGH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SO
EXPECTING NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP. SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/JN
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/TABER













000
FXUS61 KBTV 230855
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
455 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FOR THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE
REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WITH SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE
NE...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SETTING THE
AREA UP FOR N/NW FLOW TODAY. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER HIGHER
TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE
VALLEY WARM ENOUGH FOR -SHRA. BUT HIGHER TRRN WILL SEE SOME RASN
MIX. WINDS MAY ALSO BECM GUSTY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS
40-50KT JET AT 850MB EXTENDS INTO THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FA. EXPECT
QPF AMTS AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ABOUT AN INCH
OF SNOWFALL PSBL OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNGT ACROSS THE
NEK.

CLOUDY SKIES FROM LLVL MOISTURE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER N/NW FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
40S-L50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S AT THE SUMMITS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...LINGERING MOSTLY IN THE NEK IN THE FORM OF RASN MIX AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE L-M30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING
COINCIDING WILL LEAD TO 925MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 2C-3C THURSDAY.
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BUT CONTINUED N/NW FLOW WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE U40S-M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S-L40S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH WEDNESDAYS 850MB JET EWD...AT 30-45KTS
OVER SRN AND ERN VT. CLOSER TO THE SFC...925MB WINDS FOR THIS
AREA AROUND 28-35KTS. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND GUSTY WINDS
PSBL...FINER FUELS WILL DRY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
FA...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH QPF RESULTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NGT...WINDS SUBSIDE WITH RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION
AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN COLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS...20S-L30S.
WARMTH REBOUNDS ON FRIDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING 7C-9C IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NGT. MAX TEMPS WILL SEE U50S-L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
FROM A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT... SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS UP TO LIKELY. ON SATURDAY...ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SHARPER WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF MODEL AND ALSO HAS THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. AREA TO REMAIN
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SUGGESTING
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON MONDAY.
ON TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS...LEADING TO LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY. GFS
MODEL HAS THE REGION IN AN OMEGA BLOCK ON TUESDAY WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MEAN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF MODEL HAS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY WELL SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WITH AN
OPEN TROUGH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SO
EXPECTING NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP. SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/JN
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/TABER









000
FXUS61 KOKX 230840
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
440 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF NYC WILL PASS EASTERN LI AND SE CT BY
DAYBREAK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWERS. A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE TROF ALOFT WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...
AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THU AS IT IT TRACKS
SLOWLY EAST, THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER A STRONG NW FLOW WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY THIS AFT. WINDS LOOK TO FALL JUST SHY OF
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY STRATA CU WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
PREFERRED THE COLDER MET MOS.

THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG NW WINDS AND DRYING OF THE AIR MASS
WILL ELEVATE THE RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME...GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THU WHICH AT TIMES WILL
APPROACH 45 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WHILE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS WILL FEATURE LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MID
30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR THIS EVENING.

ON THU...RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT AND THE STRONG NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THU...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ONCE AGAIN...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION.
RIGHT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO WHERE
THE FRONT WILL EXACTLY SET UP...EITHER OVER OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

VFR. SOME SUB-VFR POSSIBLE BEFORE 11-12Z EAST OF THE CITY WITH ISO
-SHRA AND REDUCED VSBYS PRECEDING WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE WNW.

INCREASING NW WINDS TODAY. WINDS PEAK THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS MOSTLY
AROUND 35KT...HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN025-035 POSSIBLE AT TIMES UNTIL 11-12Z.
WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT
TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS FAVORING NORTH OF 310
MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. NW G25KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES DEVELOP BY AFT AND CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS RH VALUES GRADUALLY
LOWER INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS
WILL GUST WELL IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WITH 1- AND 10- HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
ADDRESSED IN THE FWF AS WELL AS IN AN SPS.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THU AS EXTREME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT WITH STRONG NW WINDS AND RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW







000
FXUS61 KBGM 230833
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
433 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE COOLER AND SHOWERY TODAY. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND
COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MORE SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 AM UPDATE...

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER LAKE ONTARIO PUSHING SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NY ATTM. BACKED UP BY A STRONG DIGGING SHORT WAVE ALOFT.
SO FAR ONLY RAIN SHOWERS BEING REPORTED IN THE LAKE PLAIN BUT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S SO SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION...
ESPECIALLY ON THE ROADS. LATE MORNING WARMS ENOUGH THAT PRECIP
WILL BE ONLY RAIN. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO UPSTATE NY
AND THE NRN TIER OF PA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOSTLY LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH. MORE WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL NOT THAT
MUCH.

DRIER AIR COMES IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH. SKIES
WILL QUICKLY CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS DROP BUT
CAA STILL OCCURRING IN THE EVENING. WITH ALL THE DRY AIR SKIES
WILL CLEAR. TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM EDT UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD /NEAR
BOTTOM/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS SPECIFIC TO FIRE WEATHER...INCLUDING
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS.

THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN THURSDAY...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA-WESTERN NY/PA...AND THE DEEPENING LOW
OFFSHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DUE TO BUILDING HIGH
WILL BE GETTING ESTABLISHED...RESULTING SUNSHINE AND VERY DRY AIR
MIXING DOWN WITH THE GUSTY WINDS OF PRESSURE GRADIENT.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALREADY QUITE LOW WITH DEWPOINTS...YET IN THIS
KIND OF SITUATION MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH MIXING DOWN
ENOUGH OF THE DRY AIR. THUS I WENT EVEN LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE...REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS DEWPOINTS FOR
MAJORITY OF AREA /UPPER TEENS TOWARDS FINGER LAKES REGION/. WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...THIS YIELDS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BOTTOMING OUT INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S
PERCENT RANGE. DEFINITELY A STATIC ELECTRICITY KIND OF DAY IF
WALKING ON CARPET.

AS FOR THE NORTHWEST WINDS...THEY WILL BE HIGHEST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS...WITH SUSTAINED REACHING 20-25 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH. EVEN FURTHER WEST...FREQUENT GUSTS 20-30 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DECOUPLE QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES IN. THE INITIALLY CLEAR SKY WILL HELP QUICKLY DROP
TEMPERATURES TO LOWS OF UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGH THIN CLOUDS
WILL START SPREADING IN OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT...BUT
NOT BEFORE A GOOD PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
415 EDT AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SLOW ARRIVAL OF OCCLUDED FRONT
FRIDAY...CONNECTED WELL UPSTREAM TO A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI. BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SWEEP WEST TO EAST
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. NO
INSTABILITY ALOFT...THUS NO THUNDER POTENTIAL...AND RAIN AMOUNTS
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...PERHAPS ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO.

MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY...PUSHED BY A WAVE ROUNDING THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD YIELD SOME SHOWERS...AND I SIDED WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR
POPS IN CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE...HIGHEST NORTH. SECONDARY FRONT
WITH A BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MODELS EXHIBIT UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ECMWF ORIENTING A VERY NEGATIVELY
TILTED AXIS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...VERSUS THE GFS WITH
A LARGE STACKED CUTOFF LOW ENCOMPASSING MORE OF THE NORTHEAST. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW MORE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES YET
ALSO POTENTIAL RAIN FROM BAROCLINIC ZONE. GFS ONLY SLIGHT GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES YET ALSO MAINLY DRY AS WE GET INTO
UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST CUTOFF LOW...AND ANOTHER LARGE
ONE IN THE MIDWEST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...I WENT LOWER THAN WPC
GUIDANCE BY ONLY INTRODUCING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME...ALONG WITH GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

LOWER CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE PUSHING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEW
YORK ATTM. BY 10Z SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS ALL SITES. IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE 8 TO 14Z SYR RME ITH BGM. BEST BET BGM AND ITH. BGM MAY
DROP TO IFR VSBYS TOO WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ELM AND AVP
SHOULD STAY MVFR BUT MAY HAVE FLIGHT ALTERNATES WITH CIGS UNDER 2K
FT. AFTER 14Z CIGS RISE THEN SCATTER AROUND 00Z. VFR THIS
EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN NORTHWEST INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30
KTS DURING THE DAY. THIS EVENING WINDS DROPPING TO 10 KTS STILL
OUT OF THE NW.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
415 AM EDT UPDATE...
HEADS UP...CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO BE APPROACHED OR EVEN
EXCEEDED THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS. FIRST...IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. WHILE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S PERCENT RANGE.
HOWEVER...A VERY DRY AIR MASS MOVING IN THURSDAY WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S PERCENT RANGE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME
AREAS GOT LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS FROM OUR MOST RECENT SYSTEM THAT
JUST CAME THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MOST ONLY RECEIVED VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS. ALSO...SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE SPOTTY...SO FUELS MAY BE
QUITE VULNERABLE TO QUICKLY DRYING OUT THURSDAY GIVEN THE FORECAST
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS IN NORTHEAST PA...AND THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS IN NY...WHERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
BREACHED. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL EASILY GET INTO CRITICAL LEVELS BUT WINDS WILL BE MORE
BORDERLINE SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR WATCH. MONITOR
FORECAST FOR UPDATES INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCH EXPANSIONS OR
WARNING ISSUANCES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ040-044-047-048-072.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...MDP







000
FXUS61 KALY 230832
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.
SOME OF THESE MIGHT EVEN BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY. TONIGHT A BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS AND TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT THE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY NORTHWARD TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. OTHER
SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS HERKIMER COUNTY.

THESE SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER AIR LOW...DIGGING
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL PA. THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE BROAD ASCENT
AND A COLD POOL FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THIS IN TURN WILL YIELD TO
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...BUT WITH
THE COLD POOL LINGERING THIS AFTERNOON...SOME SHOWERS COULD PERSIST
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN VERMONT.

MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...IT MIGHT BE
JUST COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS. ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS (MAYBE A
COATING ON SOME GRASSY AREAS).

TEMPERATURES THIS EARLY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S ACROSS
VALLEY LOCATIONS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND EVEN IN THE VALLEYS...WILL NOT RISE MUCH AT ALL.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SUNSHINE IN THE VALLEYS AREAS
(ESPECIALLY TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS) LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREST ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...50 TO 55 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...UPPER 50S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 30-45 MPH
BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE USUAL PLACES
(CAPITAL DISTRICT/HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL MOVE BY WELL TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT
WILL "CAPTURE" A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS PROCESS WILL
STEEPEN THE GRADIENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH
MORE WIND. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN -4 TO -8 C
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL NOT DECOUPLE...IT WILL TURN
COLD AS THE SKY GENERALLY CLEARS. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE WIND WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL...MAKING APPARENT TEMPERATURES FEEL ABOUT 10
DEGREES COLDER.

THURSDAY WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE TOWARD 0C. THE STIFF BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH ONCE MORE...WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH OR BETTER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...CLIMBING TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OCEAN STORM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO LOOSE IT
GRIP ON OUR REGION. THE WIND WILL RELAX. THERE MIGHT BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING LATE BUT EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE MORE
OPPORTUNITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE CONTINUED WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY...THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THAT
RAIN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT...WILL REACH THE AREA. THE
00Z GFS AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THE 00Z EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND...WERE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH RAIN NOT
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK.

FOR NOW...WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...LOWING CHANCES
TO SLIGHT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH LOW CHANCES TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW FAST RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION
WILL HELP DICTATE HOW MILD IT GETS. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE THINKING
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VALLEYS FURTHER EAST...WHILE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST AS WELL. IF THE RAIN WERE TO COME IN FASTER...THESE NUMBERS
WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKING
PATTERN THAT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  THIS WOULD PLACE
THE HIGHER CHC-SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.
THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS LATEST NEW TRENDS ARE FOR A
NOW A DRIER SUNDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE WILL LOWER POPS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 0C WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.  THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A LESS PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GGEM/GFS/DGEX WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
WET CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW...WITH A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING AND A DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ADVECTING NORTHWARD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WE LEAN TOWARD THE
ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE /SEE PMDEPD FOR FURTHER DETAILS/.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS REMAINS SCATTERED AS WE WILL KEEP A VCSH IN THE
TAFS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED
TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH SOME GUSTS INTO KALB-KPSF. CEILINGS
WILL DIP INTO PERIODS OF MVFR AS LOWER CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE.  THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AS VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES FROM WEST OR NORTHWEST SLOWLY
OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY BECOME GUSTY OF 25 TO 35 KTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHOWER.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY...

WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT...AS OF 430 AM EDT...MOST AREAS DID NOT COME CLOSE TO
REACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW MOVES THROUGH EARLY...EXITING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE SHOWERS (EVEN WHEN COMBINED WITH
THOSE OF LAST NIGHT) WILL ADD UP TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT...GENERALLY IN THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH TO A BREEZE TONIGHT BUT IN MOST
PLACES...WILL NOT BECOME LIGHT. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH THOSE HIGHER EVENING GUSTS. A FULL RECOVER IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS RH VALUES PEAK AROUND 75 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES.

THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SUNSHINE WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH ABOVE 50F (EXCEPT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT). A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL STILL BE
THERE...GUSTING 25-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH
VALUES LOOK TO TUMBLE INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS (AROUND 30 SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS) BUT MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD. IT WILL BE MORE THAN FIVE
DAYS WITHOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION.


OUR OFFICE WILL COORDINATE WITH THE STATE LIAISON OFFICIALS
CONCERNING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL










000
FXUS61 KBUF 230829
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
429 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST AND CLEAR OUR SKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL TODAY...MERCURY
LEVELS WILL STEADILY CLIMB DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE TROUGH/SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS E-W ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO TO A PARENT LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE AS OF 08Z THIS MORNING.
AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS PIVOTING SOUTH FROM
LAKE ONTARIO/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED
WITH SOME UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. SOME POCKETS OF MODERATE SHOWERS
LOOK TO BE EMBEDDED WHICH COULD BRING A QUICK SOAK WITH AVERAGE QPF
OF 0.10-0.25 INCHES. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
NORTH COUNTY ARE RUNNING AROUND 40 DEGREES BUT LOWER 30S ARE FOUND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY
PIVOT JUST TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES WITH ONLY
A CHANCE FOR SOME DRIZZLE WITH A MOIST FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE. THERE MAY
BE SOME PATCHY AREAS WHERE THE TEMP DROPS TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
AND SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
IN THIS SCENARIO. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE FORECAST
AS ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW THE PRIME DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE AND WARMER THAN -10C WHICH SUPPORTS DRIZZLE OVER SNOW.

LATER THIS MORNING EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT TO PIVOT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE OR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN THE
UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE LAKES. A RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS WILL
HELP ADVECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS NEW YORK WHICH WILL ACT TO
ERODE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS FROM THE LAKE SHORES INLAND. SUNSHINE
SHOULD BREAK OUT ACROSS WNY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS CNY BY
EARLY EVENING. THE COLDER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WILL
KEEP OUR SURFACE TEMPS ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS NOT EXPECTED TO
BREAK OUT OF THE 40S OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A BREEZY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN CHILLIER WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE MID 30S.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW YORK STATE WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
FALLING DEWPOINTS HELPING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE MID 20S
INLAND TO LOW 30S TOWARD THE LAKE SHORES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW...WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN QUARTER OF AN INCH...WILL
SUPPORT A DAY OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE A
BIT...BUT WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH...850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
THEREFORE...DESPITE THE SUNSHINE HIGHS LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE MID
50S IN MOST AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A NORTHWEST GRADIENT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG BOTH THE LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE COOLER.

INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED WITH THIS FIRST PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY DRY AMBIENT AIRMASS...BUT
TOP DOWN MOISTENING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING INTO THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO GROW IN COVERAGE DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PLUME/850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH. MEAGER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/SLIGHTLY POSITIVE SHOWALTER INDEX SUPPORTS LEAVING OUT
THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SETTING US UP FOR SNEAKY MILDER DAY WITH GOOD
MIXING. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD GET WELL INTO THE 60S...A FEW  70
PLUS READINGS ARE CERTAINLY IN PLAY IF SKIES CAN OPEN UP QUICKLY
ENOUGH...BUT THERE ARE SOME TIMING CONCERNS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SECONDARY FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE DETAILS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
FAIRLY WIDE SWINGS FROM RUN TO RUN. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY IS SEEN.

LOOKING IN MORE DETAIL...THE GFS REMAINS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT SWINGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS ALSO MUCH
STRONGER WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION. THE ECWMF IS FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM...
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF TO EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN. IN
SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON SOME SORT OF SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY BUT THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. WITH
THIS IN MIND HAVE JUST KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PULL BACK ON SATURDAY...WITH THE CORE OF
THE COOL DOWN LIKELY TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY THIS
TIME THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS MADE A DRAMATIC CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND BECOMES OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE NEW ECMWF BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH ITS
NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGH...WHICH ALLOWS THE CENTRAL CONUS CUTOFF TO
GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE
MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WE WILL DISCARD THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION AND KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY DRY. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE COOLEST DAY BEFORE SOME MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS MAINE
WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PIVOTS SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO. A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL SWEEP ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIZZLE/SHRA AND LOW CIGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES OUT TO
VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SKC WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS MAINE THIS MORNING BEFORE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHWESTERLIES ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...RESULTING IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL OF THE NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS.

AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL WEAKEN WITH ADVISORIES EXPIRING FROM WEST TO EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 230820
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FOR THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE
REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WITH SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE
NE...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SETTING THE
AREA UP FOR N/NW FLOW TODAY. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER HIGHER
TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE
VALLEY WARM ENOUGH FOR -SHRA. BUT HIGHER TRRN WILL SEE SOME RASN
MIX. WINDS MAY ALSO BECM GUSTY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS
40-50KT JET AT 850MB EXTENDS INTO THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FA. EXPECT
QPF AMTS AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ABOUT AN INCH
OF SNOWFALL PSBL OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNGT ACROSS THE
NEK.

CLOUDY SKIES FROM LLVL MOISTURE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER N/NW FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
40S-L50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S AT THE SUMMITS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...LINGERING MOSTLY IN THE NEK IN THE FORM OF RASN MIX AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE L-M30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING
COINCIDING WILL LEAD TO 925MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 2C-3C THURSDAY.
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BUT CONTINUED N/NW FLOW WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE U40S-M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S-L40S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH WEDNESDAYS 850MB JET EWD...AT 30-45KTS
OVER SRN AND ERN VT. CLOSER TO THE SFC...925MB WINDS FOR THIS
AREA AROUND 28-35KTS. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND GUSTY WINDS
PSBL...FINER FUELS WILL DRY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
FA...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH QPF RESULTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NGT...WINDS SUBSIDE WITH RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION
AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN COLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS...20S-L30S.
WARMTH REBOUNDS ON FRIDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING 7C-9C IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NGT. MAX TEMPS WILL SEE U50S-L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF
AND ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH
PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S
MTNS TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR
SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A
COOLER/WETTER SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE
LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY ON DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND
SFC BOUNDARY...WL MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON
SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE
30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES
SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND -7C AND 1000 TO 500MB
THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND 534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM
BL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SO
EXPECTING NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP. SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/JN
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...WGH/TABER








000
FXUS61 KOKX 230815
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
415 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF NYC WILL PASS EASTERN LI AND SE CT BY
DAYBREAK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWERS. A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE TROF ALOFT WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...
AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THU AS IT IT TRACKS
SLOWLY EAST, THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER A STRONG NW FLOW WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY THIS AFT. WINDS LOOK TO FALL JUST SHY OF
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY STRATA CU WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
PREFERRED THE COLDER MET MOS.

THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG NW WINDS AND DRYING OF THE AIR MASS
WILL ELEVATE THE RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME...GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THU WHICH AT TIMES WILL
APPROACH 45 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WHILE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS WILL FEATURE LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MID
30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR THIS EVENING.

ON THU...RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT AND THE STRONG NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THU...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ONCE AGAIN...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION.
RIGHT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO WHERE
THE FRONT WILL EXACTLY SET UP...EITHER OVER OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT TODAY.

VFR. SOME SUB-VFR POSSIBLE BEFORE 11-12Z EAST OF THE CITY WITH ISO
-SHRA AND REDUCED VSBYS PRECEDING WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE WNW.

WINDS GENERALLY WNW BEFORE AROUND 12Z...THEN NW THEREAFTER.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT FOR THE CITY TERMINALS BEFORE 09Z.
WINDS PEAK THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS MOSTLY AROUND 35KT...HOWEVER
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE.

WIND DIRECTION IN THE CITY FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...THEN NORTH OF IT THEREAFTER.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. NW G25KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES DEVELOP BY AFT AND CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS RH VALUES GRADUALLY
LOWER INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS
WILL GUST WELL IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WITH 1- AND 10- HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
ADDRESSED IN THE FWF AS WELL AS IN AN SPS.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THU AS EXTREME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT WITH STRONG NW WINDS AND RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...DW
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW







000
FXUS61 KBGM 230658
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
258 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE COOLER AND SHOWERY TODAY. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND
COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MORE SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 AM UPDATE...

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER LAKE ONTARIO PUSHING SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NY ATTM. BACKED UP BY A STRONG DIGGING SHORT WAVE ALOFT.
SO FAR ONLY RAIN SHOWERS BEING REPORTED IN THE LAKE PLAIN BUT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S SO SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION...
ESPECIALLY ON THE ROADS. LATE MORNING WARMS ENOUGH THAT PRECIP
WILL BE ONLY RAIN. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO UPSTATE NY
AND THE NRN TIER OF PA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOSTLY LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH. MORE WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL NOT THAT
MUCH.

DRIER AIR COMES IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH. SKIES
WILL QUICKLY CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS DROP BUT
CAA STILL OCCURRING IN THE EVENING. WITH ALL THE DRY AIR SKIES
WILL CLEAR. TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
BREEZY NW SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND TEMPS
THURS MORNING WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS CAA
AND DRY AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF WED NIGHT. A
SFC RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE NY AND PA THURS AFTERNOON
AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
STILL BE BREEZY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURS THUS
THERE MAY SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH VALUES WILL BE LOW.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL START TO APPROACH THE CWA ON FRI. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ATTM
TO BE LIGHT. THERE ARE STILL LARGE DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE THUS
DECIDED TO KEEP CHANGE OF RAIN IN. DECENT WAA IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THRU CWA TO START OFF THE EXTNDD PD WITH A
SHOWERY WEEKEND ON TAP. HI PRES WL BUILD IN SUN NGT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. TEMPS WL MODERATE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM BUT
RMN BLO NORMAL. BOTH GFS AND EURO AGREE ON DVLPMNT OF CLOSED LOW
OVR CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS SUPPLY OF CONT`D
COLD AIR WL KEEP CHCS FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN FOR THE MRNG HRS THEN
BCMG RAIN SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

LOWER CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE PUSHING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEW
YORK ATTM. BY 10Z SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS ALL SITES. IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE 8 TO 14Z SYR RME ITH BGM. BEST BET BGM AND ITH. BGM MAY
DROP TO IFR VSBYS TOO WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ELM AND AVP
SHOULD STAY MVFR BUT MAY HAVE FLIGHT ALTERNATES WITH CIGS UNDER 2K
FT. AFTER 14Z CIGS RISE THEN SCATTER AROUND 00Z. VFR THIS
EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN NORTHWEST INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30
KTS DURING THE DAY. THIS EVENING WINDS DROPPING TO 10 KTS STILL
OUT OF THE NW.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE
KNOWN BY WED AFTERNOON WHEN DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION FALL
BELOW 30. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE BREEZY AS A HIGH AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME COMPACT OVER THE NORTHEAST.
THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN MORE DRY AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A CONCERN AS WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S TO UPPER
20S.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KBUF 230632
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
232 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST AND CLEAR OUR SKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL TODAY...MERCURY
LEVELS WILL STEADILY CLIMB DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH/SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO.
AREA RADARS SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDED ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO PIVOTING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES. FURTHER SOUTHWEST A NARROW BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS IS FOUND
EAST OF LAKE ERIE. THE PRECIPITATION AND OVERCAST SKIES WILL BE
ENHANCED BY AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS WINDS
BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH.


WHILE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BELOW 10K TO SUPPORT
SHOWER ACTIVITY...THE AIRMASS AT CLOUD LEVEL ACCORDING TO 00Z BUFKIT
PROFILES...WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DENDRITIC CRYSTAL
GROWTH MOST LIKELY ONLY YIELDING SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING DUE TO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BEING ORIENTED ABOVE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD TEMPS WARMER THAN -10C. IF ANY OF THIS
DRIZZLE FALLS IN POCKETS WHERE TEMPS DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING THEN
THERE MAY BE A THREAT FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.

LATER TODAY...THE BASE OF THE SUPPORTING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND WHILE RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO CLEARING
SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON...OVERCAST SKIES AND SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE MORNING.

THE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SOME GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS
THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL MAKE THE FRESH NEW CANADIAN AIRMASS
EVEN MORE NOTICEABLE...AS AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE
40S IN MOST AREAS. THESE READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEG F BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. ANY
REMAINING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE EVENING WILL
CLEAR. OTHERWISE A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES AND
VERY CHILLY/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS WITH MID 20S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE AS WELL...WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN NY AS WARM ADVECTION AND SOME LIMITED MOISTURE INCREASE IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE...AND
WITH SUNSHINE EXPECT HIGHS TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A NORTHWEST GRADIENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP AREAS ALONG BOTH THE LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE SHORELINE
COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL START DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING THE REGION. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT A
LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM OCCLUSION WILL APPROACH THE FAR
WESTERN END OF THE STATE. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING THE FAR
WESTERN END OF THE STATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL STILL DROP INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS. THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE LATE.

ON FRIDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WITH THE SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THEY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST SREF MEANS
ONLY SUPPORT A RELATIVELY LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN ON FRIDAY.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE JUST GONE WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN IF THE SHOWERS
MATERIALIZE...THEY SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH PLENTY OF RAIN FREE TIME AS
WELL. A PUSH OF SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...
AND SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE DETAILS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
FAIRLY WIDE SWINGS FROM RUN TO RUN. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY IS SEEN.

LOOKING IN MORE DETAIL...THE GFS REMAINS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT SWINGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS ALSO MUCH
STRONGER WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION. THE ECWMF IS FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM...
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF TO EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN. IN
SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON SOME SORT OF SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY BUT THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. WITH
THIS IN MIND HAVE JUST KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PULL BACK ON SATURDAY...WITH THE CORE OF
THE COOL DOWN LIKELY TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY THIS
TIME THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS MADE A DRAMATIC CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND BECOMES OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE NEW ECMWF BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH ITS
NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGH...WHICH ALLOWS THE CENTRAL CONUS CUTOFF TO
GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE
MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WE WILL DISCARD THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION AND KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY DRY. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE COOLEST DAY BEFORE SOME MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS MAINE
WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PIVOTS SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO. THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. IN
REGARDS TO CIGS...THEY WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND ALSO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WRN NEW YORK.

AFTER 12Z...MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS MAINE THIS MORNING BEFORE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHWESTERLIES ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...RESULTING IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL OF THE NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS.

AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL WEAKEN WITH ADVISORIES EXPIRING FROM WEST TO EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...RSH/SMITH
MARINE...RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 230618
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
218 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT RIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAINING RIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE REGION
RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY AND INTO THE CPV. AS UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO CENTRAL PA...CLOUDS AND THREAT OF SCT
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH MIN TEMPS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 30S TO M40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST
VERMONT LATE THIS EVENING. INITIAL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...WHICH IS MORE OF A WIND SHIFT THAN A CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED VERMONT. SECONDARY FRONT...BEHIND
WHICH LIES THE COLDER AIR...IS STILL BACK IN THE OTTAWA VALLEY.
THIS SECOND BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH RATHER STRONG UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AS FLOW TURNS MORE
NORTHERLY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE...WITH FOCUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AS AIRMASS
COOLS...LOOK FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
GOING FORECAST HAS IT ALL COVERED FAIRLY WELL. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THE RESULT WAS TO RAISE MINS A COUPLE OF DEGREES MOST
AREAS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...SFC/UPPER LOW
HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL
BE OVER HIR TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH A
SLOW TAPER OF AREAL COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP VALLEY LOCALES ALL -RW DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH -RW/-SW MIX FOR HIR TRRN. AREAS SHOULD SEE A
COUPLE TENTHS OVERALL FOR QPF...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF -SW OVER
HIR TRRN. POPS DUE TAPER SHARPLY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/
MAIN FOCUS BEING NE VT TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIP IN NE VT FOR THURSDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DECENT 24-HR STRETCH OF WX
DURING THIS TIME ONCE -RW/-SW CLRS THE NE KINGDOM. OVERALL FOR
TEMPS 40S MAINLY FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS AND LIFTING INTO THE 50S FOR
THURSDAY WITH AREA SEEING FULL SUNSHINE. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 30S IN VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE TEENS/20S IN HIR TRRN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF
AND ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH
PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S
MTNS TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR
SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A
COOLER/WETTER SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE
LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY ON DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND
SFC BOUNDARY...WL MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON
SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE
30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES
SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND -7C AND 1000 TO 500MB
THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND 534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM
BL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SO
EXPECTING NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP. SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...WGH/TABER







000
FXUS61 KOKX 230604
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
204 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY
EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...COLD FRONTS OFTEN ARE SLOWER THAN THE
GUIDANCE. LATEST 05Z ANALYSIS...PLACES THE FRONT RIGHT ON TOP OF
NYC WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W. ALREADY SEEING GUSTS APPROACHING
20 KT AT KMGJ. TO THE EAST...SOME PATCHY FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WINDS
BECOME WESTERLY WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. HAVE ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH AN AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THESE SHOULD BE LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS WITH LITTLE
FANFARE AND LIGHT RAINFALL.

LOWS TONIGHT 45-50 MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST GFS LAMP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN THOUGH WITH
THE PARENT LOW STILL PRETTY STRONG FOR SPRING WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 995MB ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS DEEPENS
APPROXIMATELY 5 MB THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE GUSTY NW FLOW INCREASES TOWARDS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SLOWLY PUSHES FARTHER EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
DESPITE THE ENTRANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/NAM12 FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL
DEGREES...MORE SO AT NIGHT.

ALSO...STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF LEFT FRONT QUAD WILL CREATE
VERTICAL FORCING. HENCE...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MORE THE
FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMPETING A
CONTINUING DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A WIND
MACHINE OVER THE REGION THU...WITH DEEP MIXING AND BORDERLINE WIND
ADVY CONDITIONS THE RESULT. 50 KT WINDS RELEGATED TO AOA H85 PER THE
12Z MODEL DATA...AS A RESULT CAPPED GUSTS AT 45 MPH. DEEP SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN A COMPLETELY SUNNY DAY. THE WINDS WILL CALM DOWN ON
FRI AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A WARMER AIR MASS IN
PLACE. THE ONSET OF SEA BREEZE FLOW AND RETURN SLY FLOW SHOULD
ACTUALLY KEEP THE S COASTS COOLER THAN THU. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTN...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD
SHRA. THE GFS IS THE FASTED AND MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...AND IF
THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE CORRECT A COMPLETELY DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED.
ONLY 20 POPS IN THE FCST ATTM. MODEL TIMING IS BETTER WITH AN UPR
WAVE AND PERIOD OF LGT RAIN FRI NGT INTO SAT. HIGH CHC POPS FOR
THIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME HINT OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AS THE WAVE TRACKS OFFSHORE...SPINNING SOME LGT PCPN
IN FROM THE N SAT NGT AND SUN. LOW CHC POPS MAINTAINED IN THE FCST
DUE TO THE GFS CONSISTENCY. FOR MON AND TUE...THE GFS IS COMPLETELY
DRY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING SWD FROM CANADA. THE ECMWF HOWEVER HAS
BROUGHT THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FURTHER NWD INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE OVC WX WITH CHCS FOR RAIN. THE FCST
SIDES WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT DRY SOLNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT TODAY.

VFR. SOME SUB-VFR POSSIBLE BEFORE 11-12Z EAST OF THE CITY WITH ISO
-SHRA AND REDUCED VSBYS PRECEDING WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE WNW.

WINDS GENERALLY WNW BEFORE AROUND 12Z...THEN NW THEREAFTER.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT FOR THE CITY TERMINALS BEFORE 09Z.
WINDS PEAK THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS MOSTLY AROUND 35KT...HOWEVER
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE.

WIND DIRECTION IN THE CITY FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...THEN NORTH OF IT THEREAFTER.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. NW G25KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. GALES SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SLOW PROGRESSION OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CREATING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE SOME
PERIODS WHERE WINDS ARE BELOW GALES EARLY WEDNESDAY.

GALES LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU THU WITH LOW PRES S OF THE MARITIMES.
THE LOW DEPARTS WITH WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS FRI. WIND AND SEAS
COME UP SAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ON SUN WITH NLY FLOW...THEN HIPRES ON MON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME SPOTS REACHING DOWN TO 30 PERCENT. THIS
COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL CREATE SOME ENHANCED
FIRE SPREAD CONDITIONS BUT NOT QUITE AS PROMINENT AND PRONOUNCED
AS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. PLUS...THERE COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WHICH FURTHER LIMITS FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY.

STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH AND MIN RH FALLING INTO THE
TEENS IN SPOTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON THU.
CONSULTATION WITH LAND MANAGERS INDICATES THAT VENTILATION ON WED
SHOULD PRIME THE FUELS FOR THU...EVEN IF 1/4 INCH OF RAIN OR MORE
OCCURS THRU TNGT. AS A RESULT...A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRI NGT AND SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KALY 230526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...RADARS SHOWING ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
COVERAGE...MAINLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT. A GUSTY WEST WIND HAS ALREADY ENSUED AT ALBANY AND
POINTS WEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS FROM
ALBANY WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP OVERNIGHT.

WE ARE LOOKING AT A SHORT WAVE NEAR LAKE ERIE...PRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS IN WESTERN NEW YORK. AS THIS SHORT WAVE NEARS...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...WE DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE IN SOME
SPOTS...NAMELY THE CAPITAL REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE MID 40S
LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...CLOSER TO 40 ACROSS REMAINDER REGIONS UP NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DEFORMATION ON
THE NORTHERN/NW SIDE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ESP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS TO THE S AND
E. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS FARTHER E...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO DECREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT. SOME SNOW MAY BE MIXED IN AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREDOMINATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL PASSES
THROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH 40-45 MPH AT TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
AS FOR MAX TEMPS...EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPS THAN RECENT
DAYS...MAINLY REACHING THE MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY ONLY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S.

WED NT-THU NT...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT WED EVE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK...SO ALTHOUGH A
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT
UNDERGO THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR WED NT. EXPECT MOST MINS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THU...A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS THE SFC LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ONLY
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. IN ADDITION...DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR THU
AFTERNOON. SO...STILL EXPECT RATHER GUSTY WINDS...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-40
MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MORE
SUNSHINE/DEEPER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN MILDER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR IN SOME VALLEY AREAS. THEN FOR THU NT...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER
QUICKLY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF LATER AT NIGHT AS SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARRIVE. EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN MOST
AREAS.

FRI-FRI NT...THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND WEAK. AT THIS TIME...WILL
INDICATE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR FRI AFTN...AND CHC POPS FRI
NT...FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS AND 55-60 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI
NT MINS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
3OS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WITH 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF UPPER ENERGY LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER
WEATHER SHOULD BUILD EAST INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THERE
IS...HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AS TO THE POSITION AND
AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
THE SPECIFICS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES CAN BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION OR NOT...WHICH WILL
DETERMINE IF WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S...OR HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S.

FOR NOW SUGGESTING COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT A BIT SLOWER. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH SOME 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY
TUESDAY...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW IN THE
MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY AND BETTER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION.  THERE
COULD BE A LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION LATER
TUESDAY BUT AGAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE FINE
DETAILS OF TIMING OF WARM ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND ADVANCING
PRECIPITATION. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS REMAINS SCATTERED AS WE WILL KEEP A VCSH IN THE
TAFS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED
TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH SOME GUSTS INTO KALB-KPSF. CEILINGS
WILL DIP INTO PERIODS OF MVFR AS LOWER CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE.  THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AS VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES FROM WEST OR NORTHWEST SLOWLY
OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY BECOME GUSTY OF 25 TO 35 KTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0  NO
SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35-45 MPH LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AT 25-35 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
40-45 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15-25 MPH WED
NT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 25-35 MPH LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE RH WILL THEN FALL TO 35-45 PERCENT IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-65 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL THEN RECOVER TO 65-80 PERCENT WED
NT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR THU AFTN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY











000
FXUS61 KALY 230522
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...RADARS SHOWING ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
COVERAGE...MAINLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT. A GUSTY WEST WIND HAS ALREADY ENSUED AT ALBANY AND
POINTS WEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS FROM
ALBANY WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP OVERNIGHT.

WE ARE LOOKING AT A SHORT WAVE NEAR LAKE ERIE...PRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS IN WESTERN NEW YORK. AS THIS SHORT WAVE NEARS...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...WE DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE IN SOME
SPOTS...NAMELY THE CAPITAL REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE MID 40S
LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...CLOSER TO 40 ACROSS REMAINDER REGIONS UP NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DEFORMATION ON
THE NORTHERN/NW SIDE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ESP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS TO THE S AND
E. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS FARTHER E...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO DECREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT. SOME SNOW MAY BE MIXED IN AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREDOMINATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL PASSES
THROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH 40-45 MPH AT TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
AS FOR MAX TEMPS...EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPS THAN RECENT
DAYS...MAINLY REACHING THE MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY ONLY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S.

WED NT-THU NT...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT WED EVE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK...SO ALTHOUGH A
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT
UNDERGO THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR WED NT. EXPECT MOST MINS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THU...A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS THE SFC LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ONLY
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. IN ADDITION...DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR THU
AFTERNOON. SO...STILL EXPECT RATHER GUSTY WINDS...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-40
MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MORE
SUNSHINE/DEEPER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN MILDER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR IN SOME VALLEY AREAS. THEN FOR THU NT...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER
QUICKLY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF LATER AT NIGHT AS SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARRIVE. EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN MOST
AREAS.

FRI-FRI NT...THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND WEAK. AT THIS TIME...WILL
INDICATE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR FRI AFTN...AND CHC POPS FRI
NT...FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS AND 55-60 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI
NT MINS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
3OS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WITH 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF UPPER ENERGY LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER
WEATHER SHOULD BUILD EAST INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THERE
IS...HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AS TO THE POSITION AND
AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
THE SPECIFICS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES CAN BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION OR NOT...WHICH WILL
DETERMINE IF WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S...OR HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S.

FOR NOW SUGGESTING COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT A BIT SLOWER. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH SOME 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY
TUESDAY...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW IN THE
MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY AND BETTER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION.  THERE
COULD BE A LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION LATER
TUESDAY BUT AGAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE FINE
DETAILS OF TIMING OF WARM ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND ADVANCING
PRECIPITATION. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
WEST ARE MOVING EAST AND COULD AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. THE WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN LIGHT WEST WINDS BELOW 10 KT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN HAVE REMAINED MAINLY
VFR...WITH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. KEEPING PREDOMINANT
CONDITIONS VFR SINCE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS DO NOT INDICATE
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH TOMORROW...SO KEEPING VCSH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 00Z TOMORROW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT 10 KT OR LESS. AFTER THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AT THE SAME SPEEDS...THEN THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX. THURSDAY:
MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35-45 MPH LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AT 25-35 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
40-45 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15-25 MPH WED
NT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 25-35 MPH LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE RH WILL THEN FALL TO 35-45 PERCENT IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-65 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL THEN RECOVER TO 65-80 PERCENT WED
NT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR THU AFTN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL










000
FXUS61 KBTV 230455
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1255 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT RIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAINING RIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE REGION
RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY AND INTO THE CPV. AS UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO CENTRAL PA...CLOUDS AND THREAT OF SCT
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH MIN TEMPS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 30S TO M40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST
VERMONT LATE THIS EVENING. INITIAL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...WHICH IS MORE OF A WIND SHIFT THAN A CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED VERMONT. SECONDARY FRONT...BEHIND
WHICH LIES THE COLDER AIR...IS STILL BACK IN THE OTTAWA VALLEY.
THIS SECOND BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH RATHER STRONG UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AS FLOW TURNS MORE
NORTHERLY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE...WITH FOCUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AS AIRMASS
COOLS...LOOK FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
GOING FORECAST HAS IT ALL COVERED FAIRLY WELL. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THE RESULT WAS TO RAISE MINS A COUPLE OF DEGREES MOST
AREAS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...SFC/UPPER LOW
HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL
BE OVER HIR TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH A
SLOW TAPER OF AREAL COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP VALLEY LOCALES ALL -RW DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH -RW/-SW MIX FOR HIR TRRN. AREAS SHOULD SEE A
COUPLE TENTHS OVERALL FOR QPF...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF -SW OVER
HIR TRRN. POPS DUE TAPER SHARPLY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/
MAIN FOCUS BEING NE VT TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIP IN NE VT FOR THURSDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DECENT 24-HR STRETCH OF WX
DURING THIS TIME ONCE -RW/-SW CLRS THE NE KINGDOM. OVERALL FOR
TEMPS 40S MAINLY FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS AND LIFTING INTO THE 50S FOR
THURSDAY WITH AREA SEEING FULL SUNSHINE. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 30S IN VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE TEENS/20S IN HIR TRRN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF
AND ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH
PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S
MTNS TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR
SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A
COOLER/WETTER SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE
LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY ON DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND
SFC BOUNDARY...WL MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON
SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE
30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES
SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND -7C AND 1000 TO 500MB
THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND 534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM
BL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SFC LOW NORTH OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH
FRONTAL OCCLUSION EXTENDING BACK ACROSS NEW YORK AND ONTARIO
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...4-6SM -RA NOTED APPROACHING MPV. SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH VFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY
GOING DOWN TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN
RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND/OR MIST. THIS LINE OF THINKING IS SUPPORTED
BY BOTH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND 21Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST 8-10 KTS WITH PASSAGE OF
SFC LOW.

EXPECT A CONTINUATION AT LEAST MVFR STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND MAINTAINS PLENTY OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND.
EXPECT SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TO FALL AS UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY AT SLK AND MPV WITH VFR
VISIBILITIES ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN AT OR AROUND 10
KTS. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY
BUT ANY BREAKS IN OVC/BETTER MIXING COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO










000
FXUS61 KBUF 230330
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1130 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TO
HELP PRODUCE SOME MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EST AND CLEAR OUR SKIES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL ON WEDNESDAY...MERCURY
LEVELS WILL STEADILY CLIMB DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS
MAINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WHILE ONE COLD FRONT IS IN
THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY FROM OUR REGION...A SECONDARY FRONT HAS
YET TO COME THROUGH. AS OF 0230Z...THIS SECOND FRONT WAS PUSHING
SOUTH FROM ABOUT TORONTO WHILE A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE ERIE. THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN THE
BLOSSOMING OF MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...LARGELY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.

THE PCPN OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION WILL BE
ENHANCED BY AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH THE
SHOWERS PROBABLY MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SOME WET SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED THOUGH. WHILE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BELOW 10K TO SUPPORT SHOWER
ACTIVITY...THE AIRMASS AT CLOUD LEVEL MAY NOT BE BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH. ONLY NUISANCE SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD
BE EXPECTED IN THE EVENT OF A CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT IF THE RESULTING
PCPN IS ONLY SUPERCOOLED...THEN THERE COULD BE A BOUT OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SRN TIER. AT THIS POINT THOUGH...IT DOES NOT LOOK
AS IF SFC TEMPS WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR THIS RISK...BUT IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE WORTH WATCHING.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE BASE OF THE SUPPORTING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON...OVERCAST SKIES AND SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE MORNING.

THE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SOME GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS
THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL MAKE THE FRESH NEW CANADIAN AIRMASS
EVEN MORE NOTICEABLE...AS AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE
40S IN MOST AREAS. THESE READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEG F BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. ANY
REMAINING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE EVENING WILL
CLEAR. OTHERWISE A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES AND
VERY CHILLY/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS WITH MID 20S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE AS WELL...WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN NY AS WARM ADVECTION AND SOME LIMITED MOISTURE INCREASE IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE...AND
WITH SUNSHINE EXPECT HIGHS TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A NORTHWEST GRADIENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP AREAS ALONG BOTH THE LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE SHORELINE
COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL START DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING THE REGION. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT A
LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM OCCLUSION WILL APPROACH THE FAR
WESTERN END OF THE STATE. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING THE FAR
WESTERN END OF THE STATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL STILL DROP INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS. THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE LATE.

ON FRIDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WITH THE SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THEY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST SREF MEANS
ONLY SUPPORT A RELATIVELY LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN ON FRIDAY.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE JUST GONE WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN IF THE SHOWERS
MATERIALIZE...THEY SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH PLENTY OF RAIN FREE TIME AS
WELL. A PUSH OF SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...
AND SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE DETAILS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
FAIRLY WIDE SWINGS FROM RUN TO RUN. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY IS SEEN.

LOOKING IN MORE DETAIL...THE GFS REMAINS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT SWINGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS ALSO MUCH
STRONGER WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION. THE ECWMF IS FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM...
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF TO EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN. IN
SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON SOME SORT OF SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY BUT THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. WITH
THIS IN MIND HAVE JUST KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PULL BACK ON SATURDAY...WITH THE CORE OF
THE COOL DOWN LIKELY TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY THIS
TIME THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS MADE A DRAMATIC CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND BECOMES OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE NEW ECMWF BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH ITS
NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGH...WHICH ALLOWS THE CENTRAL CONUS CUTOFF TO
GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE
MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WE WILL DISCARD THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION AND KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY DRY. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE COOLEST DAY BEFORE SOME MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY HAS ALREADY
SWEPT ONE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...AND A SECOND WILL MOVE
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A BLOSSOMING AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. THIS PCPN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A BIT OF WET SNOW
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. IN REGARDS TO CIGS...THEY WILL
VACILLATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ALSO ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WRN NEW YORK.

ON WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER INTO THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL DRIFT ACROSS MAINE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST. THE RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWESTERLIES ON LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO...RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL OF THE NEW
YORK NEARSHORE WATERS.

AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WINDS WILL WEAKEN WITH SCA`S EXPIRING FROM WEST TO EAST.
LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH








000
FXUS61 KOKX 230310
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1110 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS STALLED WELL TO THE WEST OVER CENTRAL PA.
SHOWERS WITH LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST...
BUT SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED IN INSTABILITY AXIS
JUST TO ITS EAST OVER NE PA. THESE MAY HEAD EAST TO NYC METRO
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
WITH THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS...WITH ITS BEST FORCING FROM THESE
AREAS SOUTH INTO NJ AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

LOWS TONIGHT 45-50 MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST GFS LAMP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN THOUGH WITH
THE PARENT LOW STILL PRETTY STRONG FOR SPRING WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 995MB ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS DEEPENS
APPROXIMATELY 5 MB THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE GUSTY NW FLOW INCREASES TOWARDS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SLOWLY PUSHES FARTHER EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
DESPITE THE ENTRANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/NAM12 FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL
DEGREES...MORE SO AT NIGHT.

ALSO...STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF LEFT FRONT QUAD WILL CREATE
VERTICAL FORCING. HENCE...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MORE THE
FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMPETING A
CONTINUING DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A WIND
MACHINE OVER THE REGION THU...WITH DEEP MIXING AND BORDERLINE WIND
ADVY CONDITIONS THE RESULT. 50 KT WINDS RELEGATED TO AOA H85 PER THE
12Z MODEL DATA...AS A RESULT CAPPED GUSTS AT 45 MPH. DEEP SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN A COMPLETELY SUNNY DAY. THE WINDS WILL CALM DOWN ON
FRI AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A WARMER AIR MASS IN
PLACE. THE ONSET OF SEA BREEZE FLOW AND RETURN SLY FLOW SHOULD
ACTUALLY KEEP THE S COASTS COOLER THAN THU. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTN...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD
SHRA. THE GFS IS THE FASTED AND MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...AND IF
THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE CORRECT A COMPLETELY DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED.
ONLY 20 POPS IN THE FCST ATTM. MODEL TIMING IS BETTER WITH AN UPR
WAVE AND PERIOD OF LGT RAIN FRI NGT INTO SAT. HIGH CHC POPS FOR
THIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME HINT OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AS THE WAVE TRACKS OFFSHORE...SPINNING SOME LGT PCPN
IN FROM THE N SAT NGT AND SUN. LOW CHC POPS MAINTAINED IN THE FCST
DUE TO THE GFS CONSISTENCY. FOR MON AND TUE...THE GFS IS COMPLETELY
DRY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING SWD FROM CANADA. THE ECMWF HOWEVER HAS
BROUGHT THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FURTHER NWD INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE OVC WX WITH CHCS FOR RAIN. THE FCST
SIDES WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT DRY SOLNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...PASSES THROUGH THE TERMINALS 03Z THROUGH 07Z. THE LOW
MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY.

VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WINDS SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10KT OR LESS...SHIFTING TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY WIND DEVELOPS AFTER
05Z WITH GUSTS 20-25KT. NORTHWEST WIND AND GUSTS INCREASE DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40KT AT TIMES BY AFTERNOON.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. NW G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AFTER 05Z.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/EVE -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT-SUN...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER IT WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND
WITH A CHC -SHRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. GALES SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SLOW PROGRESSION OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CREATING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE SOME
PERIODS WHERE WINDS ARE BELOW GALES EARLY WEDNESDAY.

GALES LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU THU WITH LOW PRES S OF THE MARITIMES.
THE LOW DEPARTS WITH WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS FRI. WIND AND SEAS
COME UP SAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ON SUN WITH NLY FLOW...THEN HIPRES ON MON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME SPOTS REACHING DOWN TO 30 PERCENT. THIS
COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL CREATE SOME ENHANCED
FIRE SPREAD CONDITIONS BUT NOT QUITE AS PROMINENT AND PRONOUNCED
AS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. PLUS...THERE COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WHICH FURTHER LIMITS FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY.

STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH AND MIN RH FALLING INTO THE
TEENS IN SPOTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON THU.
CONSULTATION WITH LAND MANAGERS INDICATES THAT VENTILATION ON WED
SHOULD PRIME THE FUELS FOR THU...EVEN IF 1/4 INCH OF RAIN OR MORE
OCCURS THRU TNGT. AS A RESULT...A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH TONIGHT IS 1/10 INCH OF LESS.

A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRI NGT AND SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN/JM
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MET/PW
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/JM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 230235
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1035 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT RIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAINING RIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE REGION RIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1020 PM EDT TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST
VERMONT LATE THIS EVENING. INITIAL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...WHICH IS MORE OF A WIND SHIFT THAN A CHANGE IN AIRMASS...HAS
JUST ABOUT EXITED VERMONT. SECONDARY FRONT...BEHIND WHICH LIES THE
COLDER AIR...IS STILL BACK IN THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THIS SECOND
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH RATHER STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AS FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND DEPARTING
LOW...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE...WITH
FOCUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AS AIRMASS COOLS...LOOK FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. GOING FORECAST HAS
IT ALL COVERED FAIRLY WELL. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO MAKE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THE RESULT
WAS TO RAISE MINS A COUPLE OF DEGREES MOST AREAS. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...SFC/UPPER LOW
HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL
BE OVER HIR TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH A
SLOW TAPER OF AREAL COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP VALLEY LOCALES ALL -RW DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH -RW/-SW MIX FOR HIR TRRN. AREAS SHOULD SEE A COUPLE
TENTHS OVERALL FOR QPF...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF -SW OVER HIR TRRN.
POPS DUE TAPER SHARPLY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/ MAIN FOCUS
BEING NE VT TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN NE
VT FOR THURSDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DECENT 24-HR STRETCH OF WX DURING THIS TIME
ONCE -RW/-SW CLRS THE NE KINGDOM. OVERALL FOR TEMPS 40S MAINLY FOR
WEDNESDAY HIGHS AND LIFTING INTO THE 50S FOR THURSDAY WITH AREA
SEEING FULL SUNSHINE. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN
VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE TEENS/20S IN HIR TRRN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S MTNS
TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR
SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A COOLER/WETTER
SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON
DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY...WL
MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED
85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO
50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT.
MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND
-7C AND 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND
534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F
VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW
SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM BL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SFC LOW NORTH OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH
FRONTAL OCCLUSION EXTENDING BACK ACROSS NEW YORK AND ONTARIO
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...4-6SM -RA NOTED APPROACHING MPV. SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH VFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY
GOING DOWN TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN
RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND/OR MIST. THIS LINE OF THINKING IS SUPPORTED
BY BOTH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND 21Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST 8-10 KTS WITH PASSAGE OF SFC LOW.

EXPECT A CONTINUATION AT LEAST MVFR STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND MAINTAINS PLENTY OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND.
EXPECT SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TO FALL AS UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY AT SLK AND MPV WITH VFR
VISIBILITIES ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN AT OR AROUND 10
KTS. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY
BUT ANY BREAKS IN OVC/BETTER MIXING COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBUF 230232
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1032 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING USHERING IN
COLDER AIR AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN SPOTS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A SLOW MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERSISTENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS
MAINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WHILE ONE COLD FRONT IS IN
THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY FROM OUR REGION...A SECONDARY FRONT HAS
YET TO COME THROUGH. AS OF 0230Z...THIS SECOND FRONT WAS PUSHING
SOUTH FROM ABOUT TORONTO WHILE A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE ERIE. THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN THE
BLOSSOMING OF MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...LARGELY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.

THE PCPN OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION WILL BE
ENHANCED BY AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH THE
SHOWERS PROBABLY MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SOME WET SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED THOUGH. WHILE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BELOW 10K TO SUPPORT SHOWER
ACTIVITY...THE AIRMASS AT CLOUD LEVEL MAY NOT BE BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH. ONLY NUISANCE SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD
BE EXPECTED IN THE EVENT OF A CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT IF THE RESULTING
PCPN IS ONLY SUPERCOOLED...THEN THERE COULD BE A BOUT OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SRN TIER. AT THIS POINT THOUGH...IT DOES NOT LOOK
AS IF SFC TEMPS WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR THIS RISK...BUT IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE WORTH WATCHING.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE BASE OF THE SUPPORTING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON...OVERCAST SKIES AND SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE MORNING.

THE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SOME GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS
THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL MAKE THE FRESH NEW CANADIAN AIRMASS
EVEN MORE NOTICEABLE...AS AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE
40S IN MOST AREAS. THESE READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEG F BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. ANY
REMAINING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE EVENING WILL
CLEAR. OTHERWISE A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES AND
VERY CHILLY/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS WITH MID 20S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE AS WELL...WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN NY AS WARM ADVECTION AND SOME LIMITED MOISTURE INCREASE IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE...AND
WITH SUNSHINE EXPECT HIGHS TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A NORTHWEST GRADIENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP AREAS ALONG BOTH THE LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE SHORELINE
COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL START DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING THE REGION. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT A
LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM OCCLUSION WILL APPROACH THE FAR
WESTERN END OF THE STATE. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING THE FAR
WESTERN END OF THE STATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL STILL DROP INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS. THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE LATE.

ON FRIDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WITH THE SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THEY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST SREF MEANS
ONLY SUPPORT A RELATIVELY LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN ON FRIDAY.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE JUST GONE WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN IF THE SHOWERS
MATERIALIZE...THEY SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH PLENTY OF RAIN FREE TIME AS
WELL. A PUSH OF SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...
AND SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE DETAILS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
FAIRLY WIDE SWINGS FROM RUN TO RUN. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY IS SEEN.

LOOKING IN MORE DETAIL...THE GFS REMAINS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT SWINGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS ALSO MUCH
STRONGER WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION. THE ECWMF IS FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM...
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF TO EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN. IN
SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON SOME SORT OF SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY BUT THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. WITH
THIS IN MIND HAVE JUST KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PULL BACK ON SATURDAY...WITH THE CORE OF
THE COOLDOWN LIKELY TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY THIS
TIME THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS MADE A DRAMATIC CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND BECOMES OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE NEW ECMWF BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH ITS
NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGH...WHICH ALLOWS THE CENTRAL CONUS CUTOFF TO
GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE
MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WE WILL DISCARD THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION AND KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY DRY. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE COOLEST DAY BEFORE SOME MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY HAS ALREADY
SWEPT ONE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...AND A SECOND WILL MOVE
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A BLOSSOMING AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. THIS PCPN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A BIT OF WET SNOW
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. IN REGARDS TO CIGS...THEY WILL
VACILLATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ALSO ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WRN NEW YORK.

ON WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER INTO THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL DRIFT ACROSS MAINE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST. THE RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWESTERLIES ON LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO...RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL OF THE NEW
YORK NEARSHORE WATERS.

AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WINDS WILL WEAKEN WITH SCA`S EXPIRING FROM WEST TO EAST.
LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH








000
FXUS61 KALY 230204
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1004 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HEADING THROUGH THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...THAT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
ENERGY...AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS COULD INCREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ADJUSTING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE DECREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE
NEAR TERM...AND THE POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD SUNRISE.
SOME OTHER VERY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREV AFD DESCRIBES FEATURES IN MORE DETAIL AND IS BELOW...

AFTER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BAND OF SHOWERS PASSES THROUGH...THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE PRECIP FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS SOME DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
HOWEVER...AFTER AROUND 3 OR 4 AM...A POTENT VORT
MAX/SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION...WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PA/SOUTHERN NYS...AND THEN ACROSS
SE NYS AROUND DAYBREAK. IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THIS
FEATURE...WE EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE...ESP REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH IT TRACKS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...WILL INCLUDE INCREASING POPS TOWARD THE LIKELY RANGE FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN OR SHOWERS OCCURS AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...AND ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
EMBEDDED THUNDER IN ISOLATED AREAS.

AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE SIDED ON THE MILDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS...AND A BIT OF WIND DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DEFORMATION ON
THE NORTHERN/NW SIDE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ESP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS TO THE S AND
E. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS FARTHER E...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO DECREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT. SOME SNOW MAY BE MIXED IN AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREDOMINATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL PASSES
THROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH 40-45 MPH AT TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
AS FOR MAX TEMPS...EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPS THAN RECENT
DAYS...MAINLY REACHING THE MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY ONLY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S.

WED NT-THU NT...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT WED EVE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK...SO ALTHOUGH A
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT
UNDERGO THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR WED NT. EXPECT MOST MINS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THU...A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS THE SFC LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ONLY
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. IN ADDITION...DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR THU
AFTERNOON. SO...STILL EXPECT RATHER GUSTY WINDS...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-40
MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MORE
SUNSHINE/DEEPER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN MILDER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR IN SOME VALLEY AREAS. THEN FOR THU NT...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER
QUICKLY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF LATER AT NIGHT AS SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARRIVE. EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN MOST
AREAS.

FRI-FRI NT...THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND WEAK. AT THIS TIME...WILL
INDICATE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR FRI AFTN...AND CHC POPS FRI
NT...FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS AND 55-60 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI
NT MINS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
3OS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WITH 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF UPPER ENERGY LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER
WEATHER SHOULD BUILD EAST INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THERE
IS...HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AS TO THE POSITION AND
AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
THE SPECIFICS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES CAN BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION OR NOT...WHICH WILL
DETERMINE IF WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S...OR HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S.

FOR NOW SUGGESTING COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT A BIT SLOWER. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH SOME 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY
TUESDAY...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW IN THE
MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY AND BETTER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION.  THERE
COULD BE A LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION LATER
TUESDAY BUT AGAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE FINE
DETAILS OF TIMING OF WARM ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND ADVANCING
PRECIPITATION. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
WEST ARE MOVING EAST AND COULD AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. THE WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN LIGHT WEST WINDS BELOW 10 KT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN HAVE REMAINED MAINLY
VFR...WITH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. KEEPING PREDOMINANT
CONDITIONS VFR SINCE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS DO NOT INDICATE
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH TOMORROW...SO KEEPING VCSH THROUHG THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 00Z TOMORROW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT 10 KT OR LESS. AFTER THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AT THE SAME SPEEDS...THEN THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35-45 MPH LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AT 25-35 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
40-45 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15-25 MPH WED
NT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 25-35 MPH LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE RH WILL THEN FALL TO 35-45 PERCENT IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-65 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL THEN RECOVER TO 65-80 PERCENT WED
NT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR THU AFTN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL








000
FXUS61 KBGM 230124
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
924 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IT
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
BRINGING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATED AT 930 PM...
COLD FRONT AT 9 PM IS NOW EAST OF BGM AND JUST GETTING TO THE
WILKES-BARRE / SCRANTON AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL BE
TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY PA THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS EVENING. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
RE- DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AROUND OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER CENTRAL
NEW YORK BUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD REACH DOWN TO
NORTHERN PA TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME SNOW FLAKES MAY MIX WITH THE
RAIN TOWARD DABYREAK ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.


UPDATED AT 730 PM...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS NOW EAST OF THE CWA WITH A COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NEAR UCA TO BGM TO IPT. THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FRONT WILL END THE SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING WILL
OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN NY AND NORTHERN PA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX WITH
THE SHOWERS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AFTER ABOUT 09Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

300 PM EDT UPDATE... TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA AND
CNY. THE FIRST FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE IS A SUBTLE TROUGH THAT
IS PRESENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS TROUGH IS WHATS PRODUCING
THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH MOVED EAST THIS MORNING
AND EJECTED A VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THIS LEADING TROUGH IS
MOST PRONOUNCED AT 700MB... AND BELIEVE THIS WILL CREATE MID LVL
INSTABILITY WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME THUNDER ACROSS NE PA AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL NY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
NO DIRECT CONNECTION WITH THE GULF IS OCCURRING. PWAT VALUES ARE
MOSTLY BELOW AN INCH AND VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS STILL PRESENT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTER THAT BEING SAID...
WE MAY SEE UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR RAIN OVER THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. IF CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP... ISOLATED AREAS MAY
SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 20Z.
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE REGION TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DENSE CLOUD COVERAGE... WHICH IS EXPECT
TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MORE PROMINENT UPPR LVL LOW
WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING US AN ADDITIONAL SHOT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSAGE... AKA... A TYPICAL ANA FRONT SCENARIO. IT APPEARS THAT
THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH IN PA... BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN GRIDS AS THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY PRESENT. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND
THE LEADING WAVE. THIS FRONT WILL AID TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND CAN BE SEEN WITH AS AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM COMPRISED OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY. WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY BEHIND THE FROPA.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT... THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY NW SFC
FLOW BEHIND THE FROPA AND LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE... LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW. BREEZY NW SFC
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAY ON WED AHEAD OF A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE WED AFTERNOON AS A COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
BREEZY NW SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND TEMPS
THURS MORNING WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS CAA
AND DRY AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF WED NIGHT. A
SFC RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE NY AND PA THURS AFTERNOON
AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
STILL BE BREEZY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURS THUS
THERE MAY SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH VALUES WILL BE LOW.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL START TO APPROACH THE CWA ON FRI. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ATTM
TO BE LIGHT. THERE ARE STILL LARGE DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE THUS
DECIDED TO KEEP CHANGE OF RAIN IN. DECENT WAA IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THRU CWA TO START OFF THE EXTNDD PD WITH A
SHOWERY WEEKEND ON TAP. HI PRES WL BUILD IN SUN NGT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. TEMPS WL MODERATE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM BUT
RMN BLO NORMAL. BOTH GFS AND EURO AGREE ON DVLPMNT OF CLOSED LOW
OVR CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS SUPPLY OF CONT`D
COLD AIR WL KEEP CHCS FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN FOR THE MRNG HRS THEN
BCMG RAIN SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL
BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA WILL END BY AROUND
02Z. MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NY THIS EVENING
TO NORTHEAST PA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. .. THEN SHOWERS WILL RE-
DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT SPREADING SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST PA BY DAYBREAK. A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX WITH THE
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATION SITES OF ITH AND BGM. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT BGM AND ITH.  SHOWERS WILL END OVER NORTHERN PA AND
SOUTHERN NY BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL NY WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT THEN
NORTHWEST INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE KNOWN BY
WED AFTERNOON WHEN DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION FALL BELOW 30.
WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE BREEZY AS A HIGH AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME COMPACT OVER THE NORTHEAST. THURSDAY
WILL BE EVEN MORE DRY AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME A CONCERN AS WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...MSE
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KBUF 230039
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
839 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING USHERING IN
COLDER AIR AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN SPOTS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A SLOW MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERSISTENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
EAST ACROSS MAINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WHILE ONE COLD
FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY FROM OUR REGION...A SECONDARY
FRONT HAS YET TO COME THROUGH. AS OF 22Z...THIS SECOND FRONT WAS
FOUND NORTH OF TORONTO...STEADILY PUSHING SOUTH TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA AFTER 03Z WITH ANOTHER FOUND OF SHOWERS BLOSSOMING AS IT MOVES
THROUGH.

THE PCPN OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION WILL BE
ENHANCED BY AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH THE
SHOWERS PROBABLY MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SOME WET SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED THOUGH. WHILE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BELOW 10K TO SUPPORT SHOWER
ACTIVITY...THE AIRMASS AT CLOUD LEVEL MAY NOT BE BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH. ONLY NUISANCE SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD
BE EXPECTED IN THE EVENT OF A CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT IF THE RESULTING
PCPN IS ONLY SUPERCOOLED...THEN THERE COULD BE A BOUT OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SRN TIER. STAY TUNED.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE BASE OF THE SUPPORTING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON...OVERCAST SKIES AND SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE MORNING.

THE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SOME GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS
THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL MAKE THE FRESH NEW CANADIAN AIRMASS
EVEN MORE NOTICEABLE...AS AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE
40S IN MOST AREAS. THESE READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEG F BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. ANY
REMAINING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE EVENING WILL
CLEAR. OTHERWISE A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES AND
VERY CHILLY/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS WITH MID 20S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE AS WELL...WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN NY AS WARM ADVECTION AND SOME LIMITED MOISTURE INCREASE IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE...AND
WITH SUNSHINE EXPECT HIGHS TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A NORTHWEST GRADIENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP AREAS ALONG BOTH THE LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE SHORELINE
COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL START DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING THE REGION. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT A
LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM OCCLUSION WILL APPROACH THE FAR
WESTERN END OF THE STATE. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING THE FAR
WESTERN END OF THE STATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL STILL DROP INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS. THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE LATE.

ON FRIDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WITH THE SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THEY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST SREF MEANS
ONLY SUPPORT A RELATIVELY LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN ON FRIDAY.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE JUST GONE WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN IF THE SHOWERS
MATERIALIZE...THEY SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH PLENTY OF RAIN FREE TIME AS
WELL. A PUSH OF SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...
AND SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE DETAILS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
FAIRLY WIDE SWINGS FROM RUN TO RUN. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY IS SEEN.

LOOKING IN MORE DETAIL...THE GFS REMAINS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT SWINGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS ALSO MUCH
STRONGER WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION. THE ECWMF IS FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM...
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF TO EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN. IN
SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON SOME SORT OF SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY BUT THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. WITH
THIS IN MIND HAVE JUST KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PULL BACK ON SATURDAY...WITH THE CORE OF
THE COOLDOWN LIKELY TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY THIS
TIME THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS MADE A DRAMATIC CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND BECOMES OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE NEW ECMWF BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH ITS
NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGH...WHICH ALLOWS THE CENTRAL CONUS CUTOFF TO
GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE
MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WE WILL DISCARD THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION AND KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY DRY. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE COOLEST DAY BEFORE SOME MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY HAS ALREADY
SWEPT ONE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...AND A SECOND WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHC FOR MORE
SHOWERS. CIGS WILL VACILLATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND ALSO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WRN NEW YORK.

ON WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER INTO THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
ACROSS MAINE OVERNIGHT BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWESTERLIES ON
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL
OF THE NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS.

AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WINDS WILL WEAKEN WITH SCA`S EXPIRING FROM WEST TO EAST.
LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH








000
FXUS61 KOKX 230002
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
802 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BANDS OF SHOWERS...ONE OVER OVER ERN-MOST CT/LONG ISLAND AND
ANOTHER ENTERING WRN CT/LONG ISLAND...WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EAST
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR
LATER THIS EVENING...WITH MENTION OF THUNDER CONFINED TO MAINLY
WEST OF NYC OUTSIDE OF MARITIME INFLUENCE.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY DRIER
NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING IN BEHIND IT.

SHOWERS SHOULD END FOR MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT INTERIOR
AND EASTERN SECTIONS COULD SEE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO INTO
DAYBREAK.

MIN TEMPS WERE A BLEND OF NAM12/GFS40 AND WILL BE NEAR AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN THOUGH WITH
THE PARENT LOW STILL PRETTY STRONG FOR SPRING WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 995MB ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS DEEPENS
APPROXIMATELY 5 MB THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE GUSTY NW FLOW INCREASES TOWARDS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SLOWLY PUSHES FARTHER EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
DESPITE THE ENTRANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/NAM12 FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL
DEGREES...MORE SO AT NIGHT.

ALSO...STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF LEFT FRONT QUAD WILL CREATE
VERTICAL FORCING. HENCE...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MORE THE
FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMPETING A
CONTINUING DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A WIND
MACHINE OVER THE REGION THU...WITH DEEP MIXING AND BORDERLINE WIND
ADVY CONDITIONS THE RESULT. 50 KT WINDS RELEGATED TO AOA H85 PER THE
12Z MODEL DATA...AS A RESULT CAPPED GUSTS AT 45 MPH. DEEP SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN A COMPLETELY SUNNY DAY. THE WINDS WILL CALM DOWN ON
FRI AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A WARMER AIR MASS IN
PLACE. THE ONSET OF SEA BREEZE FLOW AND RETURN SLY FLOW SHOULD
ACTUALLY KEEP THE S COASTS COOLER THAN THU. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTN...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD
SHRA. THE GFS IS THE FASTED AND MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...AND IF
THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE CORRECT A COMPLETELY DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED.
ONLY 20 POPS IN THE FCST ATTM. MODEL TIMING IS BETTER WITH AN UPR
WAVE AND PERIOD OF LGT RAIN FRI NGT INTO SAT. HIGH CHC POPS FOR
THIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME HINT OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AS THE WAVE TRACKS OFFSHORE...SPINNING SOME LGT PCPN
IN FROM THE N SAT NGT AND SUN. LOW CHC POPS MAINTAINED IN THE FCST
DUE TO THE GFS CONSISTENCY. FOR MON AND TUE...THE GFS IS COMPLETELY
DRY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING SWD FROM CANADA. THE ECMWF HOWEVER HAS
BROUGHT THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FURTHER NWD INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE OVC WX WITH CHCS FOR RAIN. THE FCST
SIDES WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT DRY SOLNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...PASSES THROUGH THE TERMINALS 02Z THROUGH 06Z. THE LOW
MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY.

VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WINDS SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10KT OR LESS...SHIFTING TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY WIND DEVELOPS AFTER
05Z WITH GUSTS 20-25KT. NORTHWEST WIND AND GUSTS INCREASE DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40KT AT TIMES BY AFTERNOON.


      NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WESTERLY AROUND 10KT WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND RIGHT AROUND 310 TRUE AT TIMES DURING WEDNESDAY.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BE VARIABLE THROUGH 01Z UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT NEARS THE TERMINAL. THEN WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND RIGHT AROUND 310 TRUE AT TIMES DURING WEDNESDAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BE VARIABLE THROUGH 01Z UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT NEARS THE TERMINAL. THEN WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND RIGHT AROUND 310 TRUE AT TIMES DURING WEDNESDAY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WESTERLY AROUND 10KT UNTIL FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND RIGHT AROUND 310 TRUE AT TIMES DURING WEDNESDAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BE VARIABLE THROUGH 01Z UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT NEARS THE TERMINAL. THEN WINDS BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND RIGHT AROUND 310 TRUE AT TIMES DURING WEDNESDAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10KT COULD BECOME
VARIABLE UNTIL 02Z AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE TERMINAL.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND RIGHT AROUND 310 TRUE AT TIMES DURING WEDNESDAY.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. NW G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AFTER 05Z.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/EVE -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT-SUN...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER IT WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND
WITH A CHC -SHRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR AT TIMES.


&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA TONIGHT. GALES WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SLOW PROGRESSION OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT CREATING TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS ARE BELOW GALES
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

GALES LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU THU WITH LOW PRES S OF THE MARITIMES.
THE LOW DEPARTS WITH WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS FRI. WIND AND SEAS
COME UP SAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ON SUN WITH NLY FLOW...THEN HIPRES ON MON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME SPOTS REACHING DOWN TO 30 PERCENT. THIS
COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL CREATE SOME ENHANCED
FIRE SPREAD CONDITIONS BUT NOT QUITE AS PROMINENT AND PRONOUNCED
AS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. PLUS...THERE COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WHICH FURTHER LIMITS FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY.

STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH AND MIN RH FALLING INTO THE
TEENS IN SPOTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON THU.
CONSULTATION WITH LAND MANAGERS INDICATES THAT VENTILATION ON WED
SHOULD PRIME THE FUELS FOR THU...EVEN IF 1/4 INCH OF RAIN OR MORE
OCCURS THRU TNGT. AS A RESULT...A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH TONIGHT IS 1/10 INCH OF LESS.

A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRI NGT AND SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN/JM
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MET/PW
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/JM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 222337
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
737 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IT
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
BRINGING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATED AT 730 PM...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS NOW EAST OF THE CWA WITH A COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NEAR UCA TO BGM TO IPT. THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FRONT WILL END THE SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING WILL
OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN NY AND NORTHERN PA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX WITH
THE SHOWERS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AFTER ABOUT 09Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

300 PM EDT UPDATE... TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA AND
CNY. THE FIRST FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE IS A SUBTLE TROUGH THAT
IS PRESENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS TROUGH IS WHATS PRODUCING
THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH MOVED EAST THIS MORNING
AND EJECTED A VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THIS LEADING TROUGH IS
MOST PRONOUNCED AT 700MB... AND BELIEVE THIS WILL CREATE MID LVL
INSTABILITY WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME THUNDER ACROSS NE PA AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL NY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
NO DIRECT CONNECTION WITH THE GULF IS OCCURRING. PWAT VALUES ARE
MOSTLY BELOW AN INCH AND VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS STILL PRESENT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTER THAT BEING SAID...
WE MAY SEE UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR RAIN OVER THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. IF CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP... ISOLATED AREAS MAY
SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 20Z.
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE REGION TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DENSE CLOUD COVERAGE... WHICH IS EXPECT
TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MORE PROMINENT UPPR LVL LOW
WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING US AN ADDITIONAL SHOT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSAGE... AKA... A TYPICAL ANA FRONT SCENARIO. IT APPEARS THAT
THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH IN PA... BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN GRIDS AS THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY PRESENT. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND
THE LEADING WAVE. THIS FRONT WILL AID TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND CAN BE SEEN WITH AS AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM COMPRISED OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY. WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY BEHIND THE FROPA.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT... THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY NW SFC
FLOW BEHIND THE FROPA AND LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE... LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW. BREEZY NW SFC
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAY ON WED AHEAD OF A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE WED AFTERNOON AS A COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
BREEZY NW SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND TEMPS
THURS MORNING WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS CAA
AND DRY AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF WED NIGHT. A
SFC RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE NY AND PA THURS AFTERNOON
AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
STILL BE BREEZY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURS THUS
THERE MAY SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH VALUES WILL BE LOW.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL START TO APPROACH THE CWA ON FRI. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ATTM
TO BE LIGHT. THERE ARE STILL LARGE DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE THUS
DECIDED TO KEEP CHANGE OF RAIN IN. DECENT WAA IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THRU CWA TO START OFF THE EXTNDD PD WITH A
SHOWERY WEEKEND ON TAP. HI PRES WL BUILD IN SUN NGT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. TEMPS WL MODERATE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM BUT
RMN BLO NORMAL. BOTH GFS AND EURO AGREE ON DVLPMNT OF CLOSED LOW
OVR CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS SUPPLY OF CONT`D
COLD AIR WL KEEP CHCS FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN FOR THE MRNG HRS THEN
BCMG RAIN SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL
BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA WILL END BY AROUND
02Z. MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NY THIS EVENING
TO NORTHEAST PA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. .. THEN SHOWERS WILL RE-
DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT SPREADING SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST PA BY DAYBREAK. A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX WITH THE
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATION SITES OF ITH AND BGM. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT BGM AND ITH.  SHOWERS WILL END OVER NORTHERN PA AND
SOUTHERN NY BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL NY WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT THEN
NORTHWEST INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE KNOWN BY
WED AFTERNOON WHEN DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION FALL BELOW 30.
WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE BREEZY AS A HIGH AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME COMPACT OVER THE NORTHEAST. THURSDAY
WILL BE EVEN MORE DRY AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME A CONCERN AS WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...MSE
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KBTV 222329
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
729 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT RIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAINING RIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE REGION RIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 714 PM EDT TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN
VERMONT THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. INITIAL COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...MORE OF A WIND SHIFT THAN A CHANGE
IN AIRMASS...EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW ACROSS VERMONT...WHILE
SECONDARY FRONT BEHIND WHICH LIES THE COLDER AIR IS STILL BACK IN
THE OTTAWA VALLEY. LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL FORECAST...WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS EVENING CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
RATHER STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DID
ADD THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR
EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON SOME ONGOING ACTIVITY IN THIS
AREA...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE IT MAKES IT MUCH FURTHER EAST.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS...BUT NO CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT MINS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLDY SKIES AND -RW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTNOON AS COLD
FRONT MVS THRU THE AREA. SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT PASSING
EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MDL TRACK WILL CONTINUE HAVING
THIS SYSTEM MVG EAST OF REGION THRU THE OVERNGT HRS. WITH THIS
TRACK...CWA WILL SEE TRANSITION FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR CAA TO WORK INTO THE AREA AS THE
EVENING/OVERNGT HRS PROGRESS. WITH THE SHIFT IN WIND FLOW...PRECIP
WILL BEGIN TO BECM MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE W/ FOCUS OVER HIR
TRRN. COLDER AIR WILL CHANGEOVER PRECIP TO LIGHT -SW OVER HIR TRRN
WITH LIGHT ACCUM TOWARDS WED MORNING. OVERNGT TEMPS WILL RANGE IN
THE L40S IN VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE 30S IN HIR TRRN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...SFC/UPPER LOW
HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL
BE OVER HIR TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH A
SLOW TAPER OF AREAL COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP VALLEY LOCALES ALL -RW DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH -RW/-SW MIX FOR HIR TRRN. AREAS SHOULD SEE A COUPLE
TENTHS OVERALL FOR QPF...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF -SW OVER HIR TRRN.
POPS DUE TAPER SHARPLY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/ MAIN FOCUS
BEING NE VT TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN NE
VT FOR THURSDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DECENT 24-HR STRETCH OF WX DURING THIS TIME
ONCE -RW/-SW CLRS THE NE KINGDOM. OVERALL FOR TEMPS 40S MAINLY FOR
WEDNESDAY HIGHS AND LIFTING INTO THE 50S FOR THURSDAY WITH AREA
SEEING FULL SUNSHINE. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN
VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE TEENS/20S IN HIR TRRN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S MTNS
TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR
SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A COOLER/WETTER
SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON
DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY...WL
MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED
85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO
50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT.
MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND
-7C AND 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND
534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F
VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW
SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM BL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SFC LOW NORTH OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH
FRONTAL OCCLUSION EXTENDING BACK ACROSS NEW YORK AND ONTARIO
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...4-6SM -RA NOTED APPROACHING MPV. SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH VFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY
GOING DOWN TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN
RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND/OR MIST. THIS LINE OF THINKING IS SUPPORTED
BY BOTH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND 21Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST 8-10 KTS WITH PASSAGE OF SFC LOW.

EXPECT A CONTINUATION AT LEAST MVFR STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND MAINTAINS PLENTY OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND.
EXPECT SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TO FALL AS UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY AT SLK AND MPV WITH VFR
VISIBILITIES ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN AT OR AROUND 10
KTS. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY
BUT ANY BREAKS IN OVC/BETTER MIXING COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...RJS/JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KALY 222323
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
723 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE LARGER AREA OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST BUT SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE WEST COULD STILL AFFECT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. JUST
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION...
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

PREV AFD DESCRIBES FEATURES IN MORE DETAIL AND IS BELOW...

AFTER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BAND OF SHOWERS PASSES THROUGH...THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE PRECIP FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS SOME DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
HOWEVER...AFTER AROUND 3 OR 4 AM...A POTENT VORT
MAX/SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION...WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PA/SOUTHERN NYS...AND THEN ACROSS
SE NYS AROUND DAYBREAK. IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THIS
FEATURE...WE EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE...ESP REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH IT TRACKS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...WILL INCLUDE INCREASING POPS TOWARD THE LIKELY RANGE FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN OR SHOWERS OCCURS AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...AND ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
EMBEDDED THUNDER IN ISOLATED AREAS.

AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE SIDED ON THE MILDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS...AND A BIT OF WIND DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DEFORMATION ON
THE NORTHERN/NW SIDE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ESP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS TO THE S AND
E. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS FARTHER E...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO DECREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT. SOME SNOW MAY BE MIXED IN AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREDOMINATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL PASSES
THROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH 40-45 MPH AT TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
AS FOR MAX TEMPS...EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPS THAN RECENT
DAYS...MAINLY REACHING THE MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY ONLY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S.

WED NT-THU NT...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT WED EVE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK...SO ALTHOUGH A
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT
UNDERGO THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR WED NT. EXPECT MOST MINS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THU...A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS THE SFC LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ONLY
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. IN ADDITION...DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR THU
AFTERNOON. SO...STILL EXPECT RATHER GUSTY WINDS...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-40
MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MORE
SUNSHINE/DEEPER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN MILDER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR IN SOME VALLEY AREAS. THEN FOR THU NT...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER
QUICKLY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF LATER AT NIGHT AS SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARRIVE. EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN MOST
AREAS.

FRI-FRI NT...THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND WEAK. AT THIS TIME...WILL
INDICATE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR FRI AFTN...AND CHC POPS FRI
NT...FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS AND 55-60 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI
NT MINS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
3OS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WITH 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF UPPER ENERGY LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER
WEATHER SHOULD BUILD EAST INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THERE
IS...HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AS TO THE POSITION AND
AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
THE SPECIFICS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES CAN BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION OR NOT...WHICH WILL
DETERMINE IF WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S...OR HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S.

FOR NOW SUGGESTING COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT A BIT SLOWER. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH SOME 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY
TUESDAY...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW IN THE
MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY AND BETTER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION.  THERE
COULD BE A LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION LATER
TUESDAY BUT AGAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE FINE
DETAILS OF TIMING OF WARM ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND ADVANCING
PRECIPITATION. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
WEST ARE MOVING EAST AND COULD AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. THE WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN LIGHT WEST WINDS BELOW 10 KT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN HAVE REMAINED MAINLY
VFR...WITH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. KEEPING PREDOMINANT
CONDITIONS VFR SINCE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS DO NOT INDICATE
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH TOMORROW...SO KEEPING VCSH THROUHG THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 00Z TOMORROW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT 10 KT OR LESS. AFTER THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AT THE SAME SPEEDS...THEN THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35-45 MPH LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AT 25-35 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
40-45 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15-25 MPH WED
NT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 25-35 MPH LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE RH WILL THEN FALL TO 35-45 PERCENT IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-65 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL THEN RECOVER TO 65-80 PERCENT WED
NT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR THU AFTN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 222312
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
712 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT RIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAINING RIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE REGION RIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...CLDY SKIES AND -RW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AFTNOON AS COLD FRONT MVS THRU THE AREA. SFC LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT PASSING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MDL TRACK
WILL CONTINUE HAVING THIS SYSTEM MVG EAST OF REGION THRU THE
OVERNGT HRS. WITH THIS TRACK...CWA WILL SEE TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW...ALLOWING FOR CAA TO WORK INTO THE
AREA AS THE EVENING/OVERNGT HRS PROGRESS. WITH THE SHIFT IN WIND
FLOW...PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO BECM MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE W/
FOCUS OVER HIR TRRN. COLDER AIR WILL CHANGEOVER PRECIP TO LIGHT
-SW OVER HIR TRRN WITH LIGHT ACCUM TOWARDS WED MORNING. OVERNGT
TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE L40S IN VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE 30S IN
HIR TRRN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...SFC/UPPER LOW
HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL
BE OVER HIR TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH A
SLOW TAPER OF AREAL COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP VALLEY LOCALES ALL -RW DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH -RW/-SW MIX FOR HIR TRRN. AREAS SHOULD SEE A COUPLE
TENTHS OVERALL FOR QPF...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF -SW OVER HIR TRRN.
POPS DUE TAPER SHARPLY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/ MAIN FOCUS
BEING NE VT TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN NE
VT FOR THURSDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DECENT 24-HR STRETCH OF WX DURING THIS TIME
ONCE -RW/-SW CLRS THE NE KINGDOM. OVERALL FOR TEMPS 40S MAINLY FOR
WEDNESDAY HIGHS AND LIFTING INTO THE 50S FOR THURSDAY WITH AREA
SEEING FULL SUNSHINE. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN
VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE TEENS/20S IN HIR TRRN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S MTNS
TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR
SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A COOLER/WETTER
SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON
DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY...WL
MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED
85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO
50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT.
MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND
-7C AND 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND
534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F
VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW
SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM BL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SFC LOW NORTH OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH
FRONTAL OCCLUSION EXTENDING BACK ACROSS NEW YORK AND ONTARIO
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...4-6SM -RA NOTED APPROACHING MPV. SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH VFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY
GOING DOWN TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN
RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND/OR MIST. THIS LINE OF THINKING IS SUPPORTED
BY BOTH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND 21Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST 8-10 KTS WITH PASSAGE OF SFC LOW.

EXPECT A CONTINUATION AT LEAST MVFR STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND MAINTAINS PLENTY OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND.
EXPECT SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TO FALL AS UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY AT SLK AND MPV WITH VFR
VISIBILITIES ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN AT OR AROUND 10
KTS. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY
BUT ANY BREAKS IN OVC/BETTER MIXING COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO










000
FXUS61 KBUF 222220
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
620 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING USHERING IN
COLDER AIR AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN SPOTS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A SLOW MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERSISTENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
EAST ACROSS MAINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WHILE ONE COLD
FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY FROM OUR REGION...A SECONDARY
FRONT HAS YET TO COME THROUGH. AS OF 22Z...THIS SECOND FRONT WAS
FOUND NORTH OF TORONTO...STEADILY PUSHING SOUTH TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA AFTER 03Z WITH ANOTHER FOUND OF SHOWERS BLOSSOMING AS IT MOVES
THROUGH.

THE PCPN OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION WILL BE
ENHANCED BY AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH THE
SHOWERS PROBABLY MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SOME WET SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED THOUGH. WHILE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BELOW 10K TO SUPPORT SHOWER
ACTIVITY...THE AIRMASS AT CLOUD LEVEL MAY NOT BE BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH. ONLY NUISANCE SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD
BE EXPECTED IN THE EVENT OF A CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT IF THE RESULTING
PCPN IS ONLY SUPERCOOLED...THEN THERE COULD BE A BOUT OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SRN TIER. STAY TUNED.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE BASE OF THE SUPPORTING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON...OVERCAST SKIES AND SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE MORNING.

THE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SOME GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS
THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL MAKE THE FRESH NEW CANADIAN AIRMASS
EVEN MORE NOTICEABLE...AS AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE
40S IN MOST AREAS. THESE READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEG F BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. ANY
REMAINING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE EVENING WILL
CLEAR. OTHERWISE A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES AND
VERY CHILLY/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS WITH MID 20S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE AS WELL...WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN NY AS WARM ADVECTION AND SOME LIMITED MOISTURE INCREASE IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE...AND
WITH SUNSHINE EXPECT HIGHS TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A NORTHWEST GRADIENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP AREAS ALONG BOTH THE LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE SHORELINE
COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL START DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING THE REGION. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT A
LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM OCCLUSION WILL APPROACH THE FAR
WESTERN END OF THE STATE. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING THE FAR
WESTERN END OF THE STATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL STILL DROP INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS. THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE LATE.

ON FRIDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WITH THE SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THEY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST SREF MEANS
ONLY SUPPORT A RELATIVELY LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN ON FRIDAY.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE JUST GONE WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN IF THE SHOWERS
MATERIALIZE...THEY SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH PLENTY OF RAIN FREE TIME AS
WELL. A PUSH OF SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...
AND SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE DETAILS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
FAIRLY WIDE SWINGS FROM RUN TO RUN. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY IS SEEN.

LOOKING IN MORE DETAIL...THE GFS REMAINS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT SWINGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS ALSO MUCH
STRONGER WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION. THE ECWMF IS FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM...
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF TO EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN. IN
SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON SOME SORT OF SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY BUT THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. WITH
THIS IN MIND HAVE JUST KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PULL BACK ON SATURDAY...WITH THE CORE OF
THE COOLDOWN LIKELY TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY THIS
TIME THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS MADE A DRAMATIC CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND BECOMES OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE NEW ECMWF BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH ITS
NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGH...WHICH ALLOWS THE CENTRAL CONUS CUTOFF TO
GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE
MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WE WILL DISCARD THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION AND KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY DRY. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE COOLEST DAY BEFORE SOME MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY HAS ALREADY
SWEPT ONE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...AND A SECOND WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHC FOR MORE
SHOWERS. CIGS WILL VACILLATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND ALSO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WRN NEW YORK.

ON WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER INTO THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP ON ALL OF THE LAKES...WITH A W-NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL BUILD WAVES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE LONGER FETCH OF LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO NON-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KALY 222112
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
512 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 5 PM EDT...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
NYS...ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. A BAND
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WAS ACCOMPANYING THIS
FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LIGHTER SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES OUT AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. WET BULB COOLING HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO FALL BACK THROUGH
THE 60S...AND INTO THE 50S WHERE LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS.

WE EXPECT THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BAND OF SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE SWEEPING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AROUND 9
PM. IT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 530 PM...INTO THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...CAPITAL REGION...AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
BETWEEN 530 PM AND 7 PM...AND INTO SOUTHERN VT...WESTERN MA...THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 7 AND 9 PM. THERE
HAVE BEEN NO LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED UPSTREAM...AND GIVEN VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS
EVENING.

AFTER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BAND OF SHOWERS PASSES THROUGH...THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE PRECIP FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS SOME DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
HOWEVER...AFTER AROUND 3 OR 4 AM...A POTENT VORT
MAX/SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION...WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PA/SOUTHERN NYS...AND THEN ACROSS
SE NYS AROUND DAYBREAK. IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THIS
FEATURE...WE EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE...ESP REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH IT TRACKS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...WILL INCLUDE INCREASING POPS TOWARD THE LIKELY RANGE FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN OR SHOWERS OCCURS AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...AND ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
EMBEDDED THUNDER IN ISOLATED AREAS.

AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE SIDED ON THE MILDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS...AND A BIT OF WIND DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DEFORMATION ON
THE NORTHERN/NW SIDE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ESP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS TO THE S AND
E. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS FARTHER E...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO DECREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT. SOME SNOW MAY BE MIXED IN AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREDOMINATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL PASSES
THROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH 40-45 MPH AT TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
AS FOR MAX TEMPS...EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPS THAN RECENT
DAYS...MAINLY REACHING THE MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY ONLY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S.

WED NT-THU NT...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT WED EVE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK...SO ALTHOUGH A
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT
UNDERGO THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR WED NT. EXPECT MOST MINS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THU...A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS THE SFC LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ONLY
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. IN ADDITION...DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR THU
AFTERNOON. SO...STILL EXPECT RATHER GUSTY WINDS...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-40
MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MORE
SUNSHINE/DEEPER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN MILDER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR IN SOME VALLEY AREAS. THEN FOR THU NT...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER
QUICKLY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF LATER AT NIGHT AS SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARRIVE. EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN MOST
AREAS.

FRI-FRI NT...THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND WEAK. AT THIS TIME...WILL
INDICATE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR FRI AFTN...AND CHC POPS FRI
NT...FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS AND 55-60 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI
NT MINS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
3OS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WITH 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF UPPER ENERGY LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER
WEATHER SHOULD BUILD EAST INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THERE
IS...HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AS TO THE POSITION AND
AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
THE SPECIFICS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES CAN BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION OR NOT...WHICH WILL
DETERMINE IF WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S...OR HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S.

FOR NOW SUGGESTING COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT A BIT SLOWER. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH SOME 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY
TUESDAY...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW IN THE
MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY AND BETTER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION.  THERE
COULD BE A LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION LATER
TUESDAY BUT AGAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE FINE
DETAILS OF TIMING OF WARM ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND ADVANCING
PRECIPITATION. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES BY
23/01Z-02Z...BUT MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KPSF. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH A STRATO-CU DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET IS FORECAST FROM
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
STILL POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...SO HAVE LEFT VCSH IN THE FORECAST AT
ALL THE TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 18 KTS. AFTER THE FRONT
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AT THE SAME SPEEDS...THEN
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35-45 MPH LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AT 25-35 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
40-45 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15-25 MPH WED
NT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 25-35 MPH LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE RH WILL THEN FALL TO 35-45 PERCENT IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-65 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL THEN RECOVER TO 65-80 PERCENT WED
NT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR THU AFTN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 222048
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
448 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE PARENT LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY EXIT FARTHER EAST WHILE DEEPENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION STARTING TO BUILD IN WESTERN PA ASSOCIATED WITH
STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT. ITS PARENT LOW IS ALSO IN THE PROCESS
OF DEEPENING IN NORTHERN NY STATE.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING WITH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
MOVING IN BEHIND IT. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED FROM
LIFTED INDICES A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO...MOSTLY FOR THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND NYC. THERE IS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS SHOWN BY MUCAPE PLOTS FROM THE HRRR.
THEREFORE THERE IS GOING TO BE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ALONG WITH THAT...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

THE SHOWERS END FOR MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT INTERIOR
AND EASTERN ZONES COULD SEE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO INTO
DAYBREAK BUT CHANCES WILL BE LOWERING QUITE A BIT.

MIN TEMPS WERE A BLEND OF NAM12/GFS40 AND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND VERY DRY AIRMASS
WILL BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN THOUGH WITH
THE PARENT LOW STILL PRETTY STRONG FOR SPRING WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 995MB ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS DEEPENS
APPROXIMATELY 5 MB THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE GUSTY NW FLOW INCREASES TOWARDS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SLOWLY PUSHES FARTHER EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
DESPITE THE ENTRANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/NAM12 FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL
DEGREES...MORE SO AT NIGHT.

ALSO...STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF LEFT FRONT QUAD WILL CREATE
VERTICAL FORCING. HENCE...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MORE THE
FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMPETING A
CONTINUING DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A WIND
MACHINE OVER THE REGION THU...WITH DEEP MIXING AND BORDERLINE WIND
ADVY CONDITIONS THE RESULT. 50 KT WINDS RELEGATED TO AOA H85 PER THE
12Z MODEL DATA...AS A RESULT CAPPED GUSTS AT 45 MPH. DEEP SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN A COMPLETELY SUNNY DAY. THE WINDS WILL CALM DOWN ON
FRI AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A WARMER AIRMASS IN
PLACE. THE ONSET OF SEA BREEZE FLOW AND RETURN SLY FLOW SHOULD
ACTUALLY KEEP THE S COASTS COOLER THAN THU. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTN...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD
SHRA. THE GFS IS THE FASTED AND MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...AND IF
THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE CORRECT A COMPLETELY DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED.
ONLY 20 POPS IN THE FCST ATTM. MODEL TIMING IS BETTER WITH AN UPR
WAVE AND PERIOD OF LGT RAIN FRI NGT INTO SAT. HIGH CHC POPS FOR
THIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME HINT OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AS THE WAVE TRACKS OFFSHORE...SPINNING SOME LGT PCPN
IN FROM THE N SAT NGT AND SUN. LOW CHC POPS MAINTAINED IN THE FCST
DUE TO THE GFS CONSISTENCY. FOR MON AND TUE...THE GFS IS COMPLETELY
DRY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING SWD FROM CANADA. THE ECMWF HOWEVER HAS
BROUGHT THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FURTHER NWD INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE OVC WX WITH CHCS FOR RAIN. THE FCST
SIDES WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT DRY SOLNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

VFR. HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE 23Z TO 1Z
TIME FRAME IN MODERATE SHOWERS. LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER. ANY THUNDER
WILL BE ISOLATED...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER COLD FRONT
1-3Z. NW WINDS OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...NW WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY 20
TO 30 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AFTER 12Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE UNLIKELY. WIND AT THE AIRPORT
PREDOMINATELY 270-300 DEGREES MAG. WIND MAY BECOME MORE 250 AND
BECOME LIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: STRONG SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY AFTER 6 PM.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY WIND CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTH WIND CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED AFTERNOON...VFR. NW G30-35KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/EVE -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT-SUN...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER IT WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND
WITH A CHC -SHRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON OCEAN. GALES WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SLOW PROGRESSION OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT CREATING TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS ARE BELOW GALES
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

GALES LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU THU WITH LOW PRES S OF THE MARITIMES.
THE LOW DEPARTS WITH WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS FRI. WIND AND SEAS
COME UP SAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ON SUN WITH NLY FLOW...THEN HIPRES ON MON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME SPOTS REACHING DOWN TO 30 PERCENT. THIS
COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL CREATE SOME ENHANCED
FIRE SPREAD CONDITIONS BUT NOT QUITE AS PROMINENT AND PRONOUNCED
AS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. PLUS...THERE COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WHICH FURTHER LIMITS FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY.

STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH AND MIN RH FALLING INTO THE
TEENS IN SPOTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON THU.
CONSULTATION WITH LAND MANAGERS INDICATES THAT VENTILATION ON WED
SHOULD PRIME THE FUELS FOR THU...EVEN IF 1/4 INCH OF RAIN OR MORE
OCCURS THRU TNGT. AS A RESULT...A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH TONIGHT IS UP TO 1/4 INCH.

A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRI NGT AND SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MET/PW
MARINE...JMC/JM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 222016 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
407 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE PARENT LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY EXIT FARTHER EAST WHILE DEEPENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION STARTING TO BUILD IN WESTERN PA ASSOCIATED WITH
STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT. ITS PARENT LOW IS ALSO IN THE PROCESS
OF DEEPENING IN NORTHERN NY STATE.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING WITH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
MOVING IN BEHIND IT. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED FROM
LIFTED INDICES A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO...MOSTLY FOR THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND NYC. THERE IS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS SHOWN BY MUCAPE PLOTS FROM THE HRRR.
THEREFORE THERE IS GOING TO BE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ALONG WITH THAT...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

THE SHOWERS END FOR MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT INTERIOR
AND EASTERN ZONES COULD SEE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO INTO
DAYBREAK BUT CHANCES WILL BE LOWERING QUITE A BIT.

MIN TEMPS WERE A BLEND OF NAM12/GFS40 AND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND VERY DRY AIRMASS
WILL BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN THOUGH WITH
THE PARENT LOW STILL PRETTY STRONG FOR SPRING WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 995MB ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS DEEPENS
APPROXIMATELY 5 MB THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE GUSTY NW FLOW INCREASES TOWARDS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SLOWLY PUSHES FARTHER EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
DESPITE THE ENTRANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/NAM12 FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL
DEGREES...MORE SO AT NIGHT.

ALSO...STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF LEFT FRONT QUAD WILL CREATE
VERTICAL FORCING. HENCE...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MORE THE
FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMPETING A
CONTINUING DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NW FLOW.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A WIND
MACHINE OVER THE REGION THU...WITH DEEP MIXING AND BORDERLINE WIND
ADVY CONDITIONS THE RESULT. 50 KT WINDS RELEGATED TO AOA H85 PER THE
12Z MODEL DATA...AS A RESULT CAPPED GUSTS AT 45 MPH. DEEP SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN A COMPLETELY SUNNY DAY. THE WINDS WILL CALM DOWN ON
FRI AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A WARMER AIRMASS IN
PLACE. THE ONSET OF SEA BREEZE FLOW AND RETURN SLY FLOW SHOULD
ACTUALLY KEEP THE S COASTS COOLER THAN THU. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTN...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD
SHRA. THE GFS IS THE FASTED AND MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...AND IF
THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE CORRECT A COMPLETELY DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED.
ONLY 20 POPS IN THE FCST ATTM. MODEL TIMING IS BETTER WITH AN UPR
WAVE AND PERIOD OF LGT RAIN FRI NGT INTO SAT. HIGH CHC POPS FOR
THIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME HINT OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AS THE WAVE TRACKS OFFSHORE...SPINNING SOME LGT PCPN
IN FROM THE N SAT NGT AND SUN. LOW CHC POPS MAINTAINED IN THE FCST
DUE TO THE GFS CONSISTENCY. FOR MON AND TUE...THE GFS IS COMPLETELY
DRY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING SWD FROM CANADA. THE ECMWF HOWEVER HAS
BROUGHT THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FURTHER NWD INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE OVC WX WITH CHCS FOR RAIN. THE FCST
SIDES WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT DRY SOLNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

VFR. HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE 23Z TO 1Z
TIME FRAME IN MODERATE SHOWERS. LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER. ANY THUNDER
WILL BE ISOLATED...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER COLD FRONT
1-3Z. NW WINDS OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...NW WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY 20
TO 30 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AFTER 12Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT WILL BE CLOSE
TO THE AIRPORT TO THE EAST. WIND AT THE AIRPORT PREDOMINATELY
190-210 DEGREES MAG.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: STRONG SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY AFTER 6 PM.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY WIND CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTH WIND CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED AFTERNOON...VFR. NW G30-35KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/EVE -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT-SUN...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER IT WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND
WITH A CHC -SHRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON OCEAN. GALES WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SLOW PROGRESSION OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT CREATING TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS ARE BELOW GALES
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

GALES LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU THU WITH LOW PRES S OF THE MARITIMES.
THE LOW DEPARTS WITH WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS FRI. WIND AND SEAS
COME UP SAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ON SUN WITH NLY FLOW...THEN HIPRES ON MON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME SPOTS REACHING DOWN TO 30 PERCENT. THIS
COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL CREATE SOME ENHANCED
FIRE SPREAD CONDITIONS BUT NOT QUITE AS PROMINENT AND PRONOUNCED
AS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. PLUS...THERE COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WHICH FURTHER LIMITS FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY.

STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH AND MIN RH FALLING INTO THE
TEENS IN SPOTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON THU.
CONSULTATION WITH LAND MANAGERS INDICATES THAT VENTILATION ON WED
SHOULD PRIME THE FUELS FOR THU...EVEN IF 1/4 INCH OF RAIN OR MORE
OCCURS THRU TNGT. AS A RESULT...A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH TONIGHT IS UP TO 1/4 INCH.

A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRI NGT AND SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/JM
FIRE WEATHER...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM









000
FXUS61 KBTV 222007
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
407 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT RIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAINING RIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE REGION RIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...CLDY SKIES AND -RW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AFTNOON AS COLD FRONT MVS THRU THE AREA. SFC LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT PASSING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MDL TRACK
WILL CONTINUE HAVING THIS SYSTEM MVG EAST OF REGION THRU THE
OVERNGT HRS. WITH THIS TRACK...CWA WILL SEE TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW...ALLOWING FOR CAA TO WORK INTO THE
AREA AS THE EVENING/OVERNGT HRS PROGRESS. WITH THE SHIFT IN WIND
FLOW...PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO BECM MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE W/
FOCUS OVER HIR TRRN. COLDER AIR WILL CHANGEOVER PRECIP TO LIGHT
-SW OVER HIR TRRN WITH LIGHT ACCUM TOWARDS WED MORNING. OVERNGT
TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE L40S IN VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE 30S IN
HIR TRRN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...SFC/UPPER LOW
HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL
BE OVER HIR TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH A
SLOW TAPER OF AREAL COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP VALLEY LOCALES ALL -RW DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH -RW/-SW MIX FOR HIR TRRN. AREAS SHOULD SEE A COUPLE
TENTHS OVERALL FOR QPF...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF -SW OVER HIR TRRN.
POPS DUE TAPER SHARPLY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/ MAIN FOCUS
BEING NE VT TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN NE
VT FOR THURSDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DECENT 24-HR STRETCH OF WX DURING THIS TIME
ONCE -RW/-SW CLRS THE NE KINGDOM. OVERALL FOR TEMPS 40S MAINLY FOR
WEDNESDAY HIGHS AND LIFTING INTO THE 50S FOR THURSDAY WITH AREA
SEEING FULL SUNSHINE. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN
VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE TEENS/20S IN HIR TRRN.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S MTNS
TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR
SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A COOLER/WETTER
SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON
DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY...WL
MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED
85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO
50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT.
MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND
-7C AND 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND
534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F
VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW
SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM BL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE LOW CIGS AND
ASSOCIATED IFR POTENTIAL AT MSS/SLK THIS AFTN/EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF VT...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
MODERATE RAIN. THESE SHOWERS WL IMPACT OUR TAF SITES WITH VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THRU 00Z THIS EVENING. CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
LOW CIGS WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THESE SHOWERS ACRS
THE SLV/OTTAWA VALLEY AND NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST INTO SLK BY 19Z AND TWD THE
CPV BTWN 20Z-22Z TODAY. WL MENTION IFR CIGS WITH TEMPO FOR VIS
BTWN 2-4SM IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE/BR THRU 00Z TONIGHT. CIGS WL CONT
TO LOWER THIS AFTN/EVENING ACRS THE CPV WITH MVFR DEVELOPING BY
20Z AND POSSIBLE IFR TWD SUNSET. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL SHIFT
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY ON WEDS AT
10 TO 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY MPV/BTV/MSS. SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS...SO EXPECTING A STRATO CUMULUS
DECK WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CIGS THRU 18Z WEDS. SOME UPSLOPE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY
DROP VIS BTWN 2-4SM THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER










000
FXUS61 KOKX 222001
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
401 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE PARENT LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY EXIT FARTHER EAST WHILE DEEPENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION STARTING TO BUILD IN WESTERN PA ASSOCIATED WITH
STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT. ITS PARENT LOW IS ALSO IN THE PROCESS
OF DEEPENING IN NORTHERN NY STATE.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING WITH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
MOVING IN BEHIND IT. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED FROM
LIFTED INDICES A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO...MOSTLY FOR THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND NYC. THERE IS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS SHOWN BY MUCAPE PLOTS FROM THE HRRR.
THEREFORE THERE IS GOING TO BE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ALONG WITH THAT...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

MIN TEMPS WERE A BLEND OF NAM12/GFS40 AND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND VERY DRY AIRMASS
WILL BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN THOUGH WITH
THE PARENT LOW STILL PRETTY STRONG FOR SPRING WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 995MB ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS DEEPENS
APPROXIMATELY 5 MB THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE GUSTY NW FLOW INCREASES TOWARDS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SLOWLY PUSHES FARTHER EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
DESPITE THE ENTRANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/NAM12 FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL
DEGREES...MORE SO AT NIGHT.

ALSO...STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF LEFT FRONT QUAD WILL CREATE
VERTICAL FORCING. HENCE...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MORE THE
FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMPETING A
CONTINUING DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NW FLOW.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A WIND
MACHINE OVER THE REGION THU...WITH DEEP MIXING AND BORDERLINE WIND
ADVY CONDITIONS THE RESULT. 50 KT WINDS RELEGATED TO AOA H85 PER THE
12Z MODEL DATA...AS A RESULT CAPPED GUSTS AT 45 MPH. DEEP SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN A COMPLETELY SUNNY DAY. THE WINDS WILL CALM DOWN ON
FRI AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A WARMER AIRMASS IN
PLACE. THE ONSET OF SEA BREEZE FLOW AND RETURN SLY FLOW SHOULD
ACTUALLY KEEP THE S COASTS COOLER THAN THU. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTN...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD
SHRA. THE GFS IS THE FASTED AND MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...AND IF
THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE CORRECT A COMPLETELY DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED.
ONLY 20 POPS IN THE FCST ATTM. MODEL TIMING IS BETTER WITH AN UPR
WAVE AND PERIOD OF LGT RAIN FRI NGT INTO SAT. HIGH CHC POPS FOR
THIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME HINT OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AS THE WAVE TRACKS OFFSHORE...SPINNING SOME LGT PCPN
IN FROM THE N SAT NGT AND SUN. LOW CHC POPS MAINTAINED IN THE FCST
DUE TO THE GFS CONSISTENCY. FOR MON AND TUE...THE GFS IS COMPLETELY
DRY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING SWD FROM CANADA. THE ECMWF HOWEVER HAS
BROUGHT THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FURTHER NWD INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE OVC WX WITH CHCS FOR RAIN. THE FCST
SIDES WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT DRY SOLNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

VFR. HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE 23Z TO 1Z
TIME FRAME IN MODERATE SHOWERS. LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER. ANY THUNDER
WILL BE ISOLATED...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER COLD FRONT
1-3Z. NW WINDS OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...NW WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY 20
TO 30 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AFTER 12Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT WILL BE CLOSE
TO THE AIRPORT TO THE EAST. WIND AT THE AIRPORT PREDOMINATELY
190-210 DEGREES MAG.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: STRONG SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY AFTER 6 PM.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY WIND CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTH WIND CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED AFTERNOON...VFR. NW G30-35KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/EVE -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT-SUN...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER IT WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND
WITH A CHC -SHRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON OCEAN. GALES WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GALES LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU THU WITH LOW PRES S OF THE MARITIMES.
THE LOW DEPARTS WITH WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS FRI. WIND AND SEAS
COME UP SAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ON SUN WITH NLY FLOW...THEN HIPRES ON MON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH AND MIN RH FALLING INTO THE
TEENS IN SPOTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON THU.
CONSULTATION WITH LAND MANAGERS INDICATES THAT VENTILATION ON WED
SHOULD PRIME THE FUELS FOR THU...EVEN IF 1/4 INCH OF RAIN OR MORE
OCCURS THRU TNGT. AS A RESULT...A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT IS UP TO 1/4 INCH.

A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRI NGT AND SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/JM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 222001
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
401 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY GIVING WAY TO THE 40S AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY COULD MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 109 PM EDT TUESDAY...UPDATE TO FORECAST ISSUED TO REMOVE
MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MCLDY/CLDY SKIES OVER
THE CWA PERSIST AS FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THRU THE AREA...W/ PRECIP
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NY. TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA RANGE FROM
THE 50S WHERE RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING IN GD PORTION OF N
NY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE. WITH CLD COVER OVER AREA...BEST DYNAMICS
FOR TRW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. TIMING/POPS IN REST OF FORECAST
LOOK GD ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DIPPING BELOW FREEZING. SHOWERS TO LINGER IN
NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY FROM COLD POOL ALOFT UNTIL 500 MB
TROUGH PASSES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE UNDER APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY QUASH RAIN CHANCES.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY 1000-500MB THICKNESS DROPS BELOW 540 DAM
WITH A BRISK N TO NW WIND THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD IN FROM WEST WITH PLENTY OF SUN ON THURSDAY
OFFSETTING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S MTNS
TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR
SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A COOLER/WETTER
SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON
DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY...WL
MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED
85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO
50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT.
MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND
-7C AND 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND
534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F
VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW
SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM BL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE LOW CIGS AND
ASSOCIATED IFR POTENTIAL AT MSS/SLK THIS AFTN/EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF VT...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
MODERATE RAIN. THESE SHOWERS WL IMPACT OUR TAF SITES WITH VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THRU 00Z THIS EVENING. CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
LOW CIGS WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THESE SHOWERS ACRS
THE SLV/OTTAWA VALLEY AND NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST INTO SLK BY 19Z AND TWD THE
CPV BTWN 20Z-22Z TODAY. WL MENTION IFR CIGS WITH TEMPO FOR VIS
BTWN 2-4SM IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE/BR THRU 00Z TONIGHT. CIGS WL CONT
TO LOWER THIS AFTN/EVENING ACRS THE CPV WITH MVFR DEVELOPING BY
20Z AND POSSIBLE IFR TWD SUNSET. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL SHIFT
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY ON WEDS AT
10 TO 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY MPV/BTV/MSS. SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS...SO EXPECTING A STRATO CUMULUS
DECK WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CIGS THRU 18Z WEDS. SOME UPSLOPE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY
DROP VIS BTWN 2-4SM THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER










000
FXUS61 KBUF 221952
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
352 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING USHERING IN
COLDER AIR AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN SPOTS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A SLOW MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERSISTENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE
BEHIND THIS A VORT MAX SPARKS SCATTERED SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...AREAS
OF FOG WILL LINGER NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO UNTIL WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO PREFER THE
HRRR FOR NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE FOR TIMING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A STRONGER VORT MAX WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN A BROADER UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY REGIONS
WHICH UPSLOPE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW. FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS OF HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WHICH IS BEST SUITED TO CAPTURE THESE MESOSCALE
FEATURES...THE STEADIEST SHOWERS SHOULD BE 06Z TO 12Z. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES PROFILES COOL TO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
FORECAST SATURATED LAYER ONLY COOLS TO ABOUT -8C...BUT WITH THE VORT MAX
CROSSING SUSPECT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH DESPITE THE MARGINAL FORECAST HUMIDITY. IF
NOT...DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY. FOR
NOW...EXPECT PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW LATE TONIGHT.
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S...SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY EXIT INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT FAIRLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT FOR A BIT...BUT MAY FILL BACK IN
WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS BEFORE CLEARING OUT FOR GOOD LATE IN THE DAY.
ANY LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY NOON OR SO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. ANY
REMAINING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE EVENING WILL
CLEAR. OTHERWISE A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES AND
VERY CHILLY/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS WITH MID 20S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE AS WELL...WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN NY AS WARM ADVECTION AND SOME LIMITED MOISTURE INCREASE IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE...AND
WITH SUNSHINE EXPECT HIGHS TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A NORTHWEST GRADIENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP AREAS ALONG BOTH THE LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE SHORELINE
COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL START DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING THE REGION. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT A
LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM OCCLUSION WILL APPROACH THE FAR
WESTERN END OF THE STATE. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING THE FAR
WESTERN END OF THE STATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL STILL DROP INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS. THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE LATE.

ON FRIDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WITH THE SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THEY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST SREF MEANS
ONLY SUPPORT A RELATIVELY LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN ON FRIDAY.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE JUST GONE WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN IF THE SHOWERS
MATERIALIZE...THEY SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH PLENTY OF RAIN FREE TIME AS
WELL. A PUSH OF SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...
AND SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE DETAILS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
FAIRLY WIDE SWINGS FROM RUN TO RUN. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY IS SEEN.

LOOKING IN MORE DETAIL...THE GFS REMAINS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT SWINGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS ALSO MUCH
STRONGER WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION. THE ECWMF IS FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM...
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF TO EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN. IN
SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON SOME SORT OF SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY BUT THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. WITH
THIS IN MIND HAVE JUST KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PULL BACK ON SATURDAY...WITH THE CORE OF
THE COOLDOWN LIKELY TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY THIS
TIME THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS MADE A DRAMATIC CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND BECOMES OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE NEW ECMWF BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH ITS
NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGH...WHICH ALLOWS THE CENTRAL CONUS CUTOFF TO
GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE
MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WE WILL DISCARD THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION AND KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY DRY. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE COOLEST DAY BEFORE SOME MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEY A
DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD
LINGER AT ART THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 40S MOVE ACROSS THE COLD LAKE ONTARIO WATERS AND RESULT IN
LOW CIGS AND FOG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/VFR.

AFTER THIS...A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LOWER CIGS. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOWERING CIGS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS...WHICH WILL MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE EXIT OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP ON ALL OF THE LAKES...WITH A W-NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL BUILD WAVES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE LONGER FETCH OF LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO NON-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 221932
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
332 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING USHERING IN
COLDER AIR AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN SPOTS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A SLOW MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERSISTENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE
BEHIND THIS A VORT MAX SPARKS SCATTERED SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...AREAS
OF FOG WILL LINGER NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO UNTIL WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO PREFER THE
HRRR FOR NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE FOR TIMING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A STRONGER VORT MAX WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN A BROADER UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY REGIONS
WHICH UPSLOPE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW. FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS OF HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WHICH IS BEST SUITED TO CAPTURE THESE MESOSCALE
FEATURES...THE STEADIEST SHOWERS SHOULD BE 06Z TO 12Z. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES PROFILES COOL TO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
FORECAST SATURATED LAYER ONLY COOLS TO ABOUT -8C...BUT WITH THE VORT MAX
CROSSING SUSPECT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH DESPITE THE MARGINAL FORECAST HUMIDITY. IF
NOT...DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY. FOR
NOW...EXPECT PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW LATE TONIGHT.
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S...SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY EXIT INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT FAIRLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT FOR A BIT...BUT MAY FILL BACK IN
WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS BEFORE CLEARING OUT FOR GOOD LATE IN THE DAY.
ANY LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY NOON OR SO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A MOIST CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LIKELY TIED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. WE MAY ALSO SEE A BIT OF MOISTURE FLUX OFF OF
THE LAKES...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR TRUE LAKE
EFFECT PROCESSES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE REMAINING CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY CAUSE CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON...THE LAKES WILL BECOME A
STABILIZING INFLUENCE... RESULTING IN CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE
LAKES AND LAKESHORE AREAS FIRST. THEN...THE CLEARING WILL SPREAD
INLAND. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS BARELY REACHING 50. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LEAD TO A
DRY PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN TO START THE
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SUNNY
SKIES FOR THURSDAY.

THE COOL AIRMASS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
THE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY WITH BACK INTO THE MID 50S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH A BRIEF
WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WARM
OCCLUSION AT THE SURFACE WILL SWING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. THE RAIN SHOULD BE BRIEF AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION AND SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
NY. A WARMER AIRMASS WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS.

MODEL GUIDANCE QUICKLY DIVERGES WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
EVOLUTION OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
MOST ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A TURN TOWARDS MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF SWINGS A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL CUTOFF THROUGH ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
MONDAY...WITH A TROUGH DELIVERING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE CUTOFF LOW IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST TO KEEP OUR REGION MAINLY DRY.

THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND RETROGRADES THE CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...KEEPING IT OVER OR JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP MORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH THE COLDER AIR SOME OF THIS MAY BE IN
THE FORM OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MIX OF SNOW AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEY A
DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD
LINGER AT ART THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 40S MOVE ACROSS THE COLD LAKE ONTARIO WATERS AND RESULT IN
LOW CIGS AND FOG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/VFR.

AFTER THIS...A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LOWER CIGS. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOWERING CIGS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS...WHICH WILL MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE EXIT OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP ON ALL OF THE LAKES...WITH A W-NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL BUILD WAVES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE LONGER FETCH OF LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO NON-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBGM 221911
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
311 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IT
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
BRINGING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

300 PM EDT UPDATE...
TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA AND CNY. THE FIRST FEATURE
OF INTEREST IS THE IS A SUBTLE TROUGH THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS TROUGH IS WHATS PRODUCING THE RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH MOVED EAST THIS MORNING AND EJECTED A
VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THIS LEADING TROUGH IS MOST PRONOUNCED
AT 700MB... AND BELIEVE THIS WILL CREATE MID LVL INSTABILITY WHICH
MAY PRODUCE SOME THUNDER ACROSS NE PA AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL NY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS NO DIRECT CONNECTION
WITH THE GULF IS OCCURRING. PWAT VALUES ARE MOSTLY BELOW AN INCH
AND VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTER THAT BEING SAID... WE MAY SEE UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR RAIN OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF
CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP... ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 20Z.
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE REGION TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DENSE CLOUD COVERAGE... WHICH IS EXPECT
TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MORE PROMINENT UPPR LVL LOW
WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING US AN ADDITIONAL SHOT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSAGE... AKA... A TYPICAL ANA FRONT SCENARIO. IT APPEARS THAT
THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH IN PA... BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN GRIDS AS THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY PRESENT. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND
THE LEADING WAVE. THIS FRONT WILL AID TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND CAN BE SEEN WITH AS AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM COMPRISED OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY. WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY BEHIND THE FROPA.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT... THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY NW SFC
FLOW BEHIND THE FROPA AND LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE... LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW. BREEZY NW SFC
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAY ON WED AHEAD OF A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE WED AFTERNOON AS A COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
BREEZY NW SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND TEMPS
THURS MORNING WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS CAA
AND DRY AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF WED NIGHT. A
SFC RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE NY AND PA THURS AFTERNOON
AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
STILL BE BREEZY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURS THUS
THERE MAY SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH VALUES WILL BE LOW.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL START TO APPROACH THE CWA ON FRI. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ATTM
TO BE LIGHT. THERE ARE STILL LARGE DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE THUS
DECIDED TO KEEP CHANGE OF RAIN IN. DECENT WAA IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THRU CWA TO START OFF THE EXTNDD PD WITH A
SHOWERY WEEKEND ON TAP. HI PRES WL BUILD IN SUN NGT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. TEMPS WL MODERATE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM BUT
RMN BLO NORMAL. BOTH GFS AND EURO AGREE ON DVLPMNT OF CLOSED LOW
OVR CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS SUPPLY OF CONT`D
COLD AIR WL KEEP CHCS FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN FOR THE MRNG HRS THEN
BCMG RAIN SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
AREA OF VFR SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH TERMINALS AT THIS TIME AND
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR BFR MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. REMOVED -TSRA AS IT DOES NOT
APPEAR ANY THUNDER WILL DEVELOP TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AROUND 19Z AT NY TERMINALS AND CLOSER TO 21Z AT KAVP.
AFTER IT DOES SO, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO MVFR CIGS TONIGHT, POSSIBLY AS LOW AS IFR AT KITH BETWEEN
08Z AND 12Z. CIGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1500-2500FT OVERNIGHT.
MAY SEE AN UNRESTRICTED SHOWER AS UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES AFTER
06Z. EXPECT CIGS TO RISE TO VFR AT KSYR, KELM AND KAVP AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY WITH REMAINING TERMINALS EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THE END OF TAF VALID TIME.

WINDS FROM THE SSW AROUND 10KTS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS COLD FRONT PASSES.
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AROUND 10KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20KTS, BECOMING GUSTIER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
BUT REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE KNOWN BY
WED AFTERNOON WHEN DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION FALL BELOW 30.
WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE BREEZY AS A HIGH AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME COMPACT OVER THE NORTHEAST. THURSDAY
WILL BE EVEN MORE DRY AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME A CONCERN AS WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
FIRE WEATHER...KAH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 221824
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
224 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...USHERING
IN COLDER AIR AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN SPOTS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STEADY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE EAST
BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS...A VORT MAX WILL SPARK SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BEFORE DRIER AIR
BUILDS IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES UNTIL
WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST CONTINUES TO PREFER THE
HRRR FOR NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE IN TIMING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A STRONGER VORT MAX WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN A BROADER UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY REGIONS
WHICH UPSLOPE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW. FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS OF HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WHICH IS BEST SUITED TO CAPTURE THESE
MESOSCALE FEATURES...THE STEADIEST SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE
IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. FORECAST TEMPERATURES PROFILES COOL TO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS TYPICALLY
COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE FORECAST MOIST
LAYER IS ONLY ABOUT -8C...BUT WITH THE VORT MAX CROSSING SUSPECT
THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS TO SUPPORT
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH DESPITE THE MARGINAL FORECAST HUMIDITY. IF
NOT...DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY. FOR
NOW...EXPECT PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW LATE
TONIGHT. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 30S...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A MOIST CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LIKELY TIED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. WE MAY ALSO SEE A BIT OF MOISTURE FLUX OFF OF
THE LAKES...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR TRUE LAKE
EFFECT PROCESSES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE REMAINING CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY CAUSE CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON...THE LAKES WILL BECOME A
STABILIZING INFLUENCE... RESULTING IN CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE
LAKES AND LAKESHORE AREAS FIRST. THEN...THE CLEARING WILL SPREAD
INLAND. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS BARELY REACHING 50. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LEAD TO A
DRY PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN TO START THE
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SUNNY
SKIES FOR THURSDAY.

THE COOL AIRMASS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
THE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY WITH BACK INTO THE MID 50S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH A BRIEF
WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WARM
OCCLUSION AT THE SURFACE WILL SWING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. THE RAIN SHOULD BE BRIEF AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION AND SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
NY. A WARMER AIRMASS WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS.

MODEL GUIDANCE QUICKLY DIVERGES WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
EVOLUTION OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
MOST ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A TURN TOWARDS MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF SWINGS A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL CUTOFF THROUGH ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
MONDAY...WITH A TROUGH DELIVERING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE CUTOFF LOW IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST TO KEEP OUR REGION MAINLY DRY.

THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND RETROGRADES THE CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...KEEPING IT OVER OR JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP MORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH THE COLDER AIR SOME OF THIS MAY BE IN
THE FORM OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MIX OF SNOW AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEY A
DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS...WITH LINGERING LIFR CONDITIONS
AT BUF EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. MEANWHILE...IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER AT ART THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S MOVE ACROSS THE COLD LAKE
ONTARIO WATERS AND RESULT IN LOW CIGS AND FOG. MEANWHILE...STEADY
SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BEHIND
THIS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

AFTER THIS...A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LOWER CIGS. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOWERING CIGS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS...WHICH WILL MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE EXIT OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP ON ALL OF THE LAKES...WITH A W-NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL BUILD WAVES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE LONGER FETCH OF LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO NON-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
         AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBGM 221806
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
206 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IT
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
BRINGING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM EDT UPDATE...
ADJUSTED NEAR TERM POPS TO MATCH REALITY ON THE RADAR. EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE A GAP
BETWEEN THE FROPA AND THE 1ST ROUND OF SHOWERS. HRRR MODEL APPEARS
TO BE DOING VERY WELL WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE OUTPUT OF THE MODEL. OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1150 AM EDT UPDATE...
TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA AND CNY. THE FIRST FEATURE
OF INTEREST IS THE IS A SUBTLE TROUGH THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS TROUGH IS WHATS PRODUCING THE RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING AND EJECT A
VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THIS LEADING TROUGH IS MOST PRONOUNCED
AT 700MB... AND BELIEVE THIS WILL CREATE MID LVL INSTABILITY WHICH
MAY PRODUCE SOME THUNDER ACROSS NE PA AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL NY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS NO DIRECT CONNECTION
WITH THE GULF IS OCCURRING. PWAT VALUES ARE MOSTLY BELOW AN INCH
AND VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTER THAT BEING SAID... WE MAY SEE UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR RAIN OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF
CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP... ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 18Z.
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE REGION TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DENSE CLOUD COVERAGE... WHICH IS EXPECT
TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MORE PROMINENT UPPR LVL LOW
WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING US AN ADDITIONAL SHOT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSAGE... AKA... A TYPICAL ANA FRONT SCENARIO. TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS
FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND THE LEADING WAVE. THIS FRONT WILL AID TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND CAN BE SEEN WITH AS AN
ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM COMPRISED OF
HIGHER REFLECTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED COOL AND SHOWERY WITH SLOWING STACKED LOW IN ERN NEW ENGLAND.
NW CAA FLOW WILL ADD SOME LAKE MOISTURE BUT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL NOT ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT. WED MORN SECONDARY
COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THE
REST OF THE DAY. LATE WED THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD END. WITH
CAA SFC MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE U40S AND L50S.

WED NGT WILL BE COLD WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS U20S TO A30.

THU WILL BE A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
L60S SRN VALLEYS. SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SFC HIGH DURING THE AFTN.

THU NGT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FRI AFTN. PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF WITH THE HIGH ONLY MOVG INTO ERN NY. TREND AGAIN
TO DELAY THE FRONT A FEW HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THRU CWA TO START OFF THE EXTNDD PD WITH A
SHOWERY WEEKEND ON TAP. HIPRES WL BUILD IN SUN NGT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. TEMPS WL MODERATE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM BUT
RMN BLO NORMAL. BOTH GFS AND EURO AGREE ON DVLPMNT OF CLOSED LOW
OVR CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS SUPPLY OF CONT`D
COLD AIR WL KEEP CHCS FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN FOR THE MRNG HRS THEN
BCMG RAIN SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
AREA OF VFR SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH TERMINALS AT THIS TIME AND
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR BFR MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. REMOVED -TSRA AS IT DOES NOT
APPEAR ANY THUNDER WILL DEVELOP TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AROUND 19Z AT NY TERMINALS AND CLOSER TO 21Z AT KAVP.
AFTER IT DOES SO, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO MVFR CIGS TONIGHT, POSSIBLY AS LOW AS IFR AT KITH BETWEEN
08Z AND 12Z. CIGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1500-2500FT OVERNIGHT.
MAY SEE AN UNRESTRICTED SHOWER AS UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES AFTER
06Z. EXPECT CIGS TO RISE TO VFR AT KSYR, KELM AND KAVP AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY WITH REMAINING TERMINALS EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THE END OF TAF VALID TIME.

WINDS FROM THE SSW AROUND 10KTS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS COLD FRONT PASSES.
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AROUND 10KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20KTS, BECOMING GUSTIER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
BUT REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
645 AM UPDATE... DESPITE POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...PUTTING A HOLD ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AFTER THE RECENT WARM DRY SPELL.

NEXT DAY TO WATCH WILL BE THURSDAY WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS AND RH
BELOW 30 PERCENT. QUESTION HERE WHETHER FUELS WILL DRY OUT IN
TIME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KALY 221759
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
200 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL TRACK EASTWARD...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...MAINLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WITH IT. A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW COULD
FALL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A GRADUAL
CLEARING TREND BUT WINDY COOL CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 148 PM EDT...SHOWERS STILL ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY REAL SOLID RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY AT THIS HOUR. MOST OF THE
ECHOES FARTHER EAST HAVE ERODES DUE TO DRY WEDGE IN LOW LEVELS. COLD
FRONT OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AND ADVANCING EASTWARD. AS THE COLUMN
MOISTENS AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SHOWERS
SHOULD START REACHING THE GROUND TOWARDS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA. DELAYED TIMING OF HIGHER POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLOWER DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO RAISED TEMPS IN AREAS
WHERE CLOUDS HAVE ONLY RECENTLY THICKENED.

HI RES MODELS STILL INDICATING A POSSIBLE LINE OF ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LIKELY TIED TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT DUE TO
LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH COOLING DUE TO WET
BULB EFFECTS ALREADY TAKING PLACE FARTHER WEST WHERE SHOWERS HAVE
BEGUN. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH...IF AT ALL...ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COOLING EXPECTED FARTHER EAST LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT
BUT THE CPD/S ARE NOT TOO LOW TO KEEP THE CHC-SCT POPS IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  DRY SLOT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FROPA IS
FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANY RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE IS
PROGRESSIVE AND THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP THOSE POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT
CATEGORY.

THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
ACROSS NOAM WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR...BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND A MORE VIGOROUS
TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.  THE NET RESULT FOR OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A COOLER
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME BUT QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS.  THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A DRIER SOLUTION AS
OPPOSED TO THE GFS.  THE GGEM IS SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE SOLUTION AS WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TRENDS ARE FAVORING COOLER VALUES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THOSE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW 0C ONCE AGAIN.  IN
FACT...THE ECMWF DROPS BACK THOSE TEMPS TO AROUND -8C OVER NY WITH
THE GFS HOVERING AROUND 0C.  THE GGEM IS IN THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH
-4C.  THIS WILL KEEP VALLEY TEMPS MAINLY INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE
50S WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S WHERE SOME THE PRECIP COULD MIX WITH SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES BY
23/01Z-02Z...BUT MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KPSF. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH A STRATO-CU DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET IS FORECAST FROM
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
STILL POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...SO HAVE LEFT VCSH IN THE FORECAST AT
ALL THE TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 18 KTS. AFTER THE FRONT
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AT THE SAME SPEEDS...THEN
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
WED AFTN AND NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
BREEZY.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

DUE TO A BREEZE AND HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY AREAS DID NOT FULLY RECOVER
OVERNIGHT AS RH VALUES WERE MOSTLY WELL BELOW 100 PERCENT.

MAINLY DRY EARLY...BUT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN AREA AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS COULD FALL A LITTLE SHORT OF THIS
THRESHOLD.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS TO TURN
RATHER WINDY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...LOOKS TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING
BELOW 30 PERCENT. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH 30-35 MPH BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE 50S
VALLEY LOCATIONS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

THAT BREEZE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TO 5 TO 15
MPH LATER OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS BREEZE ONCE AGAIN A FULL RECOVERY
MIGHT NOT HAPPEN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND
FREEZING OR A LITTLE LOWER.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH
25-30 MPH SO WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS. IF WE FAIL
TO REACH THE QUARTER INCH CRITERIA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...COORDINATION
MIGHT BE NEEDED WITH OUR STATE LIAISON PERSONNEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
LOCALLY HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM










000
FXUS61 KALY 221749
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL TRACK EASTWARD...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...MAINLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WITH IT. A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW COULD
FALL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A GRADUAL
CLEARING TREND BUT WINDY COOL CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 148 PM EDT...SHOWERS STILL ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY REAL SOLID RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY AT THIS HOUR. MOST OF THE
ECHOES FARTHER EAST HAVE ERODES DUE TO DRY WEDGE IN LOW LEVELS. COLD
FRONT OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AND ADVANCING EASTWARD. AS THE COLUMN
MOISTENS AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SHOWERS
SHOULD START REACHING THE GROUND TOWARDS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA. DELAYED TIMING OF HIGHER POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLOWER DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO RAISED TEMPS IN AREAS
WHERE CLOUDS HAVE ONLY RECENTLY THICKENED.

HI RES MODELS STILL INDICATING A POSSIBLE LINE OF ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LIKELY TIED TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT DUE TO
LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH COOLING DUE TO WET
BULB EFFECTS ALREADY TAKING PLACE FARTHER WEST WHERE SHOWERS HAVE
BEGUN. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH...IF AT ALL...ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COOLING EXPECTED FARTHER EAST LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT
BUT THE CPD/S ARE NOT TOO LOW TO KEEP THE CHC-SCT POPS IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  DRY SLOT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FROPA IS
FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANY RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE IS
PROGRESSIVE AND THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP THOSE POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT
CATEGORY.

THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
ACROSS NOAM WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR...BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND A MORE VIGOROUS
TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.  THE NET RESULT FOR OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A COOLER
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME BUT QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS.  THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A DRIER SOLUTION AS
OPPOSED TO THE GFS.  THE GGEM IS SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE SOLUTION AS WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TRENDS ARE FAVORING COOLER VALUES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THOSE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW 0C ONCE AGAIN.  IN
FACT...THE ECMWF DROPS BACK THOSE TEMPS TO AROUND -8C OVER NY WITH
THE GFS HOVERING AROUND 0C.  THE GGEM IS IN THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH
-4C.  THIS WILL KEEP VALLEY TEMPS MAINLY INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE
50S WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S WHERE SOME THE PRECIP COULD MIX WITH SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

MAIN AVIATION IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  UPSTREAM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN AROUND
MVFR CIGS WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION WITH THE SHOWERS.  IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

DUE TO A BREEZE AND HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY AREAS DID NOT FULLY RECOVER
OVERNIGHT AS RH VALUES WERE MOSTLY WELL BELOW 100 PERCENT.

MAINLY DRY EARLY...BUT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN AREA AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS COULD FALL A LITTLE SHORT OF THIS
THRESHOLD.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS TO TURN
RATHER WINDY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...LOOKS TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING
BELOW 30 PERCENT. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH 30-35 MPH BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE 50S
VALLEY LOCATIONS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

THAT BREEZE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TO 5 TO 15
MPH LATER OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS BREEZE ONCE AGAIN A FULL RECOVERY
MIGHT NOT HAPPEN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND
FREEZING OR A LITTLE LOWER.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH
25-30 MPH SO WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS. IF WE FAIL
TO REACH THE QUARTER INCH CRITERIA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...COORDINATION
MIGHT BE NEEDED WITH OUR STATE LIAISON PERSONNEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
LOCALLY HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 221744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY GIVING WAY TO THE 40S AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY COULD MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 109 PM EDT TUESDAY...UPDATE TO FORECAST ISSUED TO REMOVE
MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MCLDY/CLDY SKIES OVER
THE CWA PERSIST AS FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THRU THE AREA...W/ PRECIP
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NY. TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA RANGE FROM
THE 50S WHERE RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING IN GD PORTION OF N
NY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE. WITH CLD COVER OVER AREA...BEST DYNAMICS
FOR TRW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. TIMING/POPS IN REST OF FORECAST
LOOK GD ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DIPPING BELOW FREEZING. SHOWERS TO LINGER IN
NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY FROM COLD POOL ALOFT UNTIL 500 MB
TROUGH PASSES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE UNDER APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY QUASH RAIN CHANCES.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY 1000-500MB THICKNESS DROPS BELOW 540 DAM
WITH A BRISK N TO NW WIND THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD IN FROM WEST WITH PLENTY OF SUN ON THURSDAY
OFFSETTING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN ON TAP FOR THE LONG
TERM AS THURSDAY NIGHT SEES A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY SHIFT EWD...MAKING WAY FOR A SFC LOW TO MOVE IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING FRIDAY TEMPS INTO THE 60S. MILD TEMPS
CONTINUE FRIDAY NGT IN THE M30S-M40S AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND THE
SFC LOW TRACKS TO OUR N AND W. THREAT OF PRECIP CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NGT
WITH W-NW FLOW BRINGING MIN TEMPS INTO THE U20S-U30S. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND NW FLOW
CREATING SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE HIGHER TRRN SATURDAY NGT INTO
LATE SUNDAY.

AT SAME TIME...RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE
EDGING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO.
DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS SWWD OF THE RIDGE...DRIER AIR MAY
FILTER IN...ENDING THREAT OF UPSLOPE PRECIP SUNDAY NGT INTO
MONDAY. TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER...IN THE L40S-
M50S...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S-U30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE LOW CIGS AND
ASSOCIATED IFR POTENTIAL AT MSS/SLK THIS AFTN/EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF VT...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
MODERATE RAIN. THESE SHOWERS WL IMPACT OUR TAF SITES WITH VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THRU 00Z THIS EVENING. CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
LOW CIGS WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THESE SHOWERS ACRS
THE SLV/OTTAWA VALLEY AND NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST INTO SLK BY 19Z AND TWD THE
CPV BTWN 20Z-22Z TODAY. WL MENTION IFR CIGS WITH TEMPO FOR VIS
BTWN 2-4SM IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE/BR THRU 00Z TONIGHT. CIGS WL CONT
TO LOWER THIS AFTN/EVENING ACRS THE CPV WITH MVFR DEVELOPING BY
20Z AND POSSIBLE IFR TWD SUNSET. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL SHIFT
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY ON WEDS AT
10 TO 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY MPV/BTV/MSS. SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS...SO EXPECTING A STRATO CUMULUS
DECK WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CIGS THRU 18Z WEDS. SOME UPSLOPE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY
DROP VIS BTWN 2-4SM THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...TABER










000
FXUS61 KOKX 221740
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
140 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WORKS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERALL...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO REMARKABLE CHANGES
MADE TO FORECAST DATABASE FOR THE NEAR TERM. SLIGHTLY INCREASED
TEMPS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS FOR NORTHEAST NJ AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

SFC COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOP AND MOVE NEAR THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PARENT LOW
ATTACHED TO COLD FRONT DEEPENS APPROXIMATELY 5 MB THROUGH THE DAY
SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR CONSOLIDATION AND ORGANIZATION OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO THE WEST. LEFT CONVECTION AS
ISOLATED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FORECAST.

AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WORKS EAST TODAY...
SENDING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. UPPER
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK PRECEDING THE FRONT THIS AFT...WITH FRONTAL
FORCING BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS. AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...
MAINLY ALOFT...WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR. DRY LOW LEVELS COULD SUPPORT
SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY SHOWERS LATE THIS AFT...BUT NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY SEVERE OR STRONG CONVECTION.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING THIS AFT. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 70 WEST OF
NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ BY 8
PM...AND FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

A GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK WED AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT.
THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH BY AFT. RIGHT NOW...CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE.

PREFERRED COLDER NAM MOS WITH THE POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION AND
CYCLONIC FLOW AIDING STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING
EAST ON FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW
AND ARRIVING HIGH WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW A BRIEF SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
BUILD OVERHEAD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION. THERE
IS A CHANCE THE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST
DAYS IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S...COOLEST READINGS NEAR THE COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THEN RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

VFR. HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE 23Z TO 1Z
TIME FRAME IN SHOWERS. LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER. ANY THUNDER WILL BE
ISOLATED.

WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER COLD FRONT
1-3Z. NW WINDS OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...NW WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY 20
TO 30 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AFTER 12Z.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT WILL BE CLOSE
TO THE AIRPORT TO THE EAST. WIND AT THE AIRPORT PREDOMINATELY
190-210 DEGREES MAG.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY WIND CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTH WIND CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED AFTERNOON...VFR. NW G30-35KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/EVE -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT-SUN...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER IT WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND
WITH A CHC -SHRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

A STRONG NW FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK
WED...STRENGTHENING TO NEAR GALE FORCE BY AFT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND COAST. GALES
COULD LINGER INTO THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS WED AFT
AND NIGHT.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOWERING RH VALUES TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT AND STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL ELEVATE THE SPREAD OF ANY WILD FIRES THAT
DO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONCERNS CONTINUE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS EVEN LOWER RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT IS UP TO 1/4 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FROM WED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...BC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW







000
FXUS61 KBGM 221738
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
138 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IT
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
BRINGING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM EDT UPDATE...
ADJUSTED NEAR TERM POPS TO MATCH REALITY ON THE RADAR. EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE A GAP
BETWEEN THE FROPA AND THE 1ST ROUND OF SHOWERS. HRRR MODEL APPEARS
TO BE DOING VERY WELL WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE OUTPUT OF THE MODEL. OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1150 AM EDT UPDATE...
TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA AND CNY. THE FIRST FEATURE
OF INTEREST IS THE IS A SUBTLE TROUGH THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS TROUGH IS WHATS PRODUCING THE RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING AND EJECT A
VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THIS LEADING TROUGH IS MOST PRONOUNCED
AT 700MB... AND BELIEVE THIS WILL CREATE MID LVL INSTABILITY WHICH
MAY PRODUCE SOME THUNDER ACROSS NE PA AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL NY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS NO DIRECT CONNECTION
WITH THE GULF IS OCCURRING. PWAT VALUES ARE MOSTLY BELOW AN INCH
AND VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTER THAT BEING SAID... WE MAY SEE UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR RAIN OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF
CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP... ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 18Z.
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE REGION TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DENSE CLOUD COVERAGE... WHICH IS EXPECT
TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MORE PROMINENT UPPR LVL LOW
WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING US AN ADDITIONAL SHOT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSAGE... AKA... A TYPICAL ANA FRONT SCENARIO. TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS
FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND THE LEADING WAVE. THIS FRONT WILL AID TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND CAN BE SEEN WITH AS AN
ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM COMPRISED OF
HIGHER REFLECTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED COOL AND SHOWERY WITH SLOWING STACKED LOW IN ERN NEW ENGLAND.
NW CAA FLOW WILL ADD SOME LAKE MOISTURE BUT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL NOT ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT. WED MORN SECONDARY
COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THE
REST OF THE DAY. LATE WED THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD END. WITH
CAA SFC MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE U40S AND L50S.

WED NGT WILL BE COLD WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS U20S TO A30.

THU WILL BE A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
L60S SRN VALLEYS. SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SFC HIGH DURING THE AFTN.

THU NGT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FRI AFTN. PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF WITH THE HIGH ONLY MOVG INTO ERN NY. TREND AGAIN
TO DELAY THE FRONT A FEW HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. AGAIN FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPES.
POSITIONING OF FRONTS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE TOO. BOTTOM LINE
UNSETTLED AND COOL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH THE IDEA THAT A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LITTLE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED AND NO THUNDER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING A MAINLY DRY SCENARIO FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT LOW CHC POPS
GOING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DESPITE SOME DOWNSTREAM DISAGREEMENT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME
TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
AREA OF VFR SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH TERMINALS AT THIS TIME AND
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR BFR MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. REMOVED -TSRA AS IT DOES NOT
APPEAR ANY THUNDER WILL DEVELOP TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AROUND 19Z AT NY TERMINALS AND CLOSER TO 21Z AT KAVP.
AFTER IT DOES SO, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO MVFR CIGS TONIGHT, POSSIBLY AS LOW AS IFR AT KITH BETWEEN
08Z AND 12Z. CIGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1500-2500FT OVERNIGHT.
MAY SEE AN UNRESTRICTED SHOWER AS UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES AFTER
06Z. EXPECT CIGS TO RISE TO VFR AT KSYR, KELM AND KAVP AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY WITH REMAINING TERMINALS EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THE END OF TAF VALID TIME.

WINDS FROM THE SSW AROUND 10KTS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS COLD FRONT PASSES.
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AROUND 10KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20KTS, BECOMING GUSTIER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
BUT REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
645 AM UPDATE... DESPITE POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...PUTTING A HOLD ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AFTER THE RECENT WARM DRY SPELL.

NEXT DAY TO WATCH WILL BE THURSDAY WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS AND RH
BELOW 30 PERCENT. QUESTION HERE WHETHER FUELS WILL DRY OUT IN
TIME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB/MSE/TAC
AVIATION...PVN
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KBTV 221709
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
109 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY GIVING WAY TO THE 40S AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY COULD MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 109 PM EDT TUESDAY...UPDATE TO FORECAST ISSUED TO REMOVE
MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MCLDY/CLDY SKIES OVER
THE CWA PERSIST AS FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THRU THE AREA...W/ PRECIP
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NY. TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA RANGE FROM
THE 50S WHERE RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING IN GD PORTION OF N
NY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE. WITH CLD COVER OVER AREA...BEST DYNAMICS
FOR TRW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. TIMING/POPS IN REST OF FORECAST
LOOK GD ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DIPPING BELOW FREEZING. SHOWERS TO LINGER IN
NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY FROM COLD POOL ALOFT UNTIL 500 MB
TROUGH PASSES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE UNDER APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY QUASH RAIN CHANCES.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY 1000-500MB THICKNESS DROPS BELOW 540 DAM
WITH A BRISK N TO NW WIND THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD IN FROM WEST WITH PLENTY OF SUN ON THURSDAY
OFFSETTING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN ON TAP FOR THE LONG
TERM AS THURSDAY NIGHT SEES A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY SHIFT EWD...MAKING WAY FOR A SFC LOW TO MOVE IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING FRIDAY TEMPS INTO THE 60S. MILD TEMPS
CONTINUE FRIDAY NGT IN THE M30S-M40S AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND THE
SFC LOW TRACKS TO OUR N AND W. THREAT OF PRECIP CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NGT
WITH W-NW FLOW BRINGING MIN TEMPS INTO THE U20S-U30S. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND NW FLOW
CREATING SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE HIGHER TRRN SATURDAY NGT INTO
LATE SUNDAY.

AT SAME TIME...RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE
EDGING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO.
DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS SWWD OF THE RIDGE...DRIER AIR MAY
FILTER IN...ENDING THREAT OF UPSLOPE PRECIP SUNDAY NGT INTO
MONDAY. TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER...IN THE L40S-
M50S...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S-U30S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
DETERIORATE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...SWEEPING
EWD THROUGH THE REGION AND TRIGGERING -SHRA/RA AND MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KMSS/KSLK BTWN 15Z-17Z...CPV BTWN 19Z-21Z...AND
KMPV/KRUT BTWN 20Z-22Z. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE AT TIMES...PRODUCING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN
THE WARMER MOIST AIR AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. UPSTREAMS OBS
SHOW THAT EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT TO END THE TAF PERIOD IN MVFR WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BCM GUSTY BY MID-LATE
MORNING...THEN WILL SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE W/NW DURING THE EVENING HRS...AND EXPECT
GUSTS TO SUBSIDE.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM









000
FXUS61 KBGM 221625
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1225 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IT
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
BRINGING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM EDT UPDATE...
ADJUSTED NEAR TERM POPS TO MATCH REALITY ON THE RADAR. EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE A GAP
BETWEEN THE FROPA AND THE 1ST ROUND OF SHOWERS. HRRR MODEL APPEARS
TO BE DOING VERY WELL WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE OUTPUT OF THE MODEL. OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1150 AM EDT UPDATE...
TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA AND CNY. THE FIRST FEATURE
OF INTEREST IS THE IS A SUBTLE TROUGH THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS TROUGH IS WHATS PRODUCING THE RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING AND EJECT A
VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THIS LEADING TROUGH IS MOST PRONOUNCED
AT 700MB... AND BELIEVE THIS WILL CREATE MID LVL INSTABILITY WHICH
MAY PRODUCE SOME THUNDER ACROSS NE PA AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL NY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS NO DIRECT CONNECTION
WITH THE GULF IS OCCURRING. PWAT VALUES ARE MOSTLY BELOW AN INCH
AND VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTER THAT BEING SAID... WE MAY SEE UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR RAIN OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF
CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP... ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 18Z.
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE REGION TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DENSE CLOUD COVERAGE... WHICH IS EXPECT
TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MORE PROMINENT UPPR LVL LOW
WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING US AN ADDITIONAL SHOT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSAGE... AKA... A TYPICAL ANA FRONT SCENARIO. TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS
FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND THE LEADING WAVE. THIS FRONT WILL AID TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND CAN BE SEEN WITH AS AN
ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM COMPRISED OF
HIGHER REFLECTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED COOL AND SHOWERY WITH SLOWING STACKED LOW IN ERN NEW ENGLAND.
NW CAA FLOW WILL ADD SOME LAKE MOISTURE BUT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL NOT ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT. WED MORN SECONDARY
COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THE
REST OF THE DAY. LATE WED THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD END. WITH
CAA SFC MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE U40S AND L50S.

WED NGT WILL BE COLD WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS U20S TO A30.

THU WILL BE A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
L60S SRN VALLEYS. SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SFC HIGH DURING THE AFTN.

THU NGT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FRI AFTN. PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF WITH THE HIGH ONLY MOVG INTO ERN NY. TREND AGAIN
TO DELAY THE FRONT A FEW HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. AGAIN FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPES.
POSITIONING OF FRONTS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE TOO. BOTTOM LINE
UNSETTLED AND COOL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH THE IDEA THAT A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LITTLE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED AND NO THUNDER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING A MAINLY DRY SCENARIO FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT LOW CHC POPS
GOING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DESPITE SOME DOWNSTREAM DISAGREEMENT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME
TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
STILL VFR FOR NOW...BUT CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AND THICKENING AHEAD
OF INCOMING COLD FRONT. EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG FRONT WILL MOVE WNW TO ENE FROM 16Z-22Z INCLUDING
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR
SPECIFICS OF TIMING. ONLY HAVE CB IN KBGM-KAVP TAFS AT THIS
TIME...ALSO POSSIBLE AT KELM-KITH BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAF /WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS/. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS...WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS...ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
STRATUS CIG AND EVENTUAL POST FRONTAL SCT -SHRA. HOWEVER...THE IMMEDIATE
FRONTAL SHOWER-THUNDER BAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A
PUSH OF 20-25 KT GUSTS AS INDICATED IN TAFS WITHIN THE TEMPO GROUPS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SCT -SHRA AND LINGERING MVFR CIGS ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SAT... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
645 AM UPDATE... DESPITE POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...PUTTING A HOLD ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AFTER THE RECENT WARM DRY SPELL.

NEXT DAY TO WATCH WILL BE THURSDAY WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS AND RH
BELOW 30 PERCENT. QUESTION HERE WHETHER FUELS WILL DRY OUT IN
TIME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB/MSE/TAC
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 221553
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1153 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IT
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
BRINGING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1150 AM EDT UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS POPS LOOK
GOOD WITH THE LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA.

TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA AND CNY. THE FIRST FEATURE
OF INTEREST IS THE IS A SUBTLE TROUGH THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS TROUGH IS WHATS PRODUCING THE RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING AND EJECT A
VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THIS LEADING TROUGH IS MOST PRONOUNCED
AT 700MB... AND BELIEVE THIS WILL CREATE MID LVL INSTABILITY WHICH
MAY PRODUCE SOME THUNDER ACROSS NE PA AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL NY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS NO DIRECT CONNECTION
WITH THE GULF IS OCCURRING. PWAT VALUES ARE MOSTLY BELOW AN INCH
AND VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTER THAT BEING SAID... WE MAY SEE UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR RAIN OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF
CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP... ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 18Z.
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE REGION TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DENSE CLOUD COVERAGE... WHICH IS EXPECT
TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MORE PROMINENT UPPR LVL LOW
WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING US AN ADDITIONAL SHOT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSAGE... AKA... A TYPICAL ANA FRONT SCENARIO. TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS
FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND THE LEADING WAVE. THIS FRONT WILL AID TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND CAN BE SEEN WITH AS AN
ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM COMPRISED OF
HIGHER REFLECTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED COOL AND SHOWERY WITH SLOWING STACKED LOW IN ERN NEW ENGLAND.
NW CAA FLOW WILL ADD SOME LAKE MOISTURE BUT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL NOT ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT. WED MORN SECONDARY
COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THE
REST OF THE DAY. LATE WED THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD END. WITH
CAA SFC MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE U40S AND L50S.

WED NGT WILL BE COLD WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS U20S TO A30.

THU WILL BE A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
L60S SRN VALLEYS. SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SFC HIGH DURING THE AFTN.

THU NGT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FRI AFTN. PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF WITH THE HIGH ONLY MOVG INTO ERN NY. TREND AGAIN
TO DELAY THE FRONT A FEW HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. AGAIN FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPES.
POSITIONING OF FRONTS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE TOO. BOTTOM LINE
UNSETTLED AND COOL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH THE IDEA THAT A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LITTLE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED AND NO THUNDER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING A MAINLY DRY SCENARIO FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT LOW CHC POPS
GOING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DESPITE SOME DOWNSTREAM DISAGREEMENT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME
TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
STILL VFR FOR NOW...BUT CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AND THICKENING AHEAD
OF INCOMING COLD FRONT. EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG FRONT WILL MOVE WNW TO ENE FROM 16Z-22Z INCLUDING
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR
SPECIFICS OF TIMING. ONLY HAVE CB IN KBGM-KAVP TAFS AT THIS
TIME...ALSO POSSIBLE AT KELM-KITH BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAF /WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS/. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS...WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS...ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
STRATUS CIG AND EVENTUAL POST FRONTAL SCT -SHRA. HOWEVER...THE IMMEDIATE
FRONTAL SHOWER-THUNDER BAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A
PUSH OF 20-25 KT GUSTS AS INDICATED IN TAFS WITHIN THE TEMPO GROUPS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SCT -SHRA AND LINGERING MVFR CIGS ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SAT... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
645 AM UPDATE... DESPITE POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...PUTTING A HOLD ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AFTER THE RECENT WARM DRY SPELL.

NEXT DAY TO WATCH WILL BE THURSDAY WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS AND RH
BELOW 30 PERCENT. QUESTION HERE WHETHER FUELS WILL DRY OUT IN
TIME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB/MSE/TAC
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...MDP/TAC








000
FXUS61 KBUF 221526
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1126 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...ACCOMPANIED WITH
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION...AND
THEN AS COLDER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT A
SECONDARY BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH SNOW TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1100 AM...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS A SOLID LINE OF RAIN
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT 3 HOURS AND ABOUT A QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN. MEANWHILE...WARM AND MOIST AIR STREAMING UP LAKE ERIE WILL
MIX WITH COOLER LAKE WATERS...RESULTING IN FOG ON THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND EVENTUALLY NE OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER THIS MORNING. FOG
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER THE WIND SHIFT. FOR TIMING
THIS...USED THE HRRR WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT AND WIND SHIFT.

VISIBLE SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWS BREAKS IN CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...BUT THIS MAY FILL IN SINCE IT IS STILL AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE.
MEANWHILE...A MORE SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT IS DEVELOPING JUST BEHIND
THE UPPER TROF...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT EXPECT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BE PLENTIFUL. THIS INCREASE
IN MOISTURE WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS TONIGHT...BUT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE COLD AIR
DEEPENS...850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING DOWN TO -3 TO -5C...A CHANGE OVER
TO SOME WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH AN UPSLOPE FLOW. GREATEST CHANCES FOR SOME
SNOW WILL ALSO BE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A SLUSHY HALF INCH
OR SO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK.

TEMPERATURES ARE MILD THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT EXPECT THESE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A MOIST CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LIKELY TIED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. WE MAY ALSO SEE A BIT OF MOISTURE FLUX OFF OF
THE LAKES...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR TRUE LAKE
EFFECT PROCESSES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE REMAINING CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY CAUSE CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON...THE LAKES WILL BECOME A
STABILIZING INFLUENCE... RESULTING IN CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE
LAKES AND LAKESHORE AREAS FIRST. THEN...THE CLEARING WILL SPREAD
INLAND. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS BARELY REACHING 50. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LEAD TO A
DRY PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN TO START THE
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SUNNY
SKIES FOR THURSDAY.

THE COOL AIRMASS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
THE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY WITH BACK INTO THE MID 50S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH A BRIEF
WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WARM
OCCLUSION AT THE SURFACE WILL SWING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. THE RAIN SHOULD BE BRIEF AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION AND SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
NY. A WARMER AIRMASS WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS.

MODEL GUIDANCE QUICKLY DIVERGES WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
EVOLUTION OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
MOST ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A TURN TOWARDS MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF SWINGS A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL CUTOFF THROUGH ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
MONDAY...WITH A TROUGH DELIVERING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE CUTOFF LOW IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST TO KEEP OUR REGION MAINLY DRY.

THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND RETROGRADES THE CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...KEEPING IT OVER OR JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP MORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH THE COLDER AIR SOME OF THIS MAY BE IN
THE FORM OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MIX OF SNOW AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT BUF/IAG AND WILL PROBABLY
NOT IMPROVE UNTIL WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. THE MAIN CAUSE IS DEW
POINTS AROUND 50 OVERRUNNING THE MUCH COLDER LAKE ERIE WHICH IS
RESULTING IN LOW CIGS AND GROUND FOG. THIS WILL ALSO BECOME AN
ISSUE AT ART LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE INLAND
SITES SUCH AS ROC SHOULD HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT DUE TO THE
FURTHER DISTANCE FROM THE LAKES IN THE SOUTHWEST PRE-FRONTAL FLOW.

A DRY SLOT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
BE BRIEF AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LOWER CIGS BACK TO IFR/MVFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW MIXING IN LATE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS SNOW MAY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING KJHW.

OUTLOOK...
EARLY WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE INCREASING TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS THIS MORNING ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...AND WILL HOIST A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HERE...AND CONTINUE IT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ELSEWHERE SCA WILL REMAIN ON LAKE ONTARIO AS WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WAVES AREA EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT TODAY.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY
OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS MAY NECESSITATE A SCA
FOR THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO NON-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
         AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL/THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBGM 221502
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1102 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IT
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
BRINGING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM EDT UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS POPS LOOK
GOOD WITH THE LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA.

TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA AND CNY. THE FIRST FEATURE
OF INTEREST IS THE IS A SUBTLE TROUGH THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS TROUGH IS WHATS PRODUCING THE RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING AND EJECT A
VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THIS LEADING TROUGH IS MOST PRONOUNCED
AT 700MB... AND BELIEVE THIS WILL CREATE MID LVL INSTABILITY WHICH
MAY PRODUCE SOME THUNDER ACROSS NE PA AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL NY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS NO DIRECT CONNECTION
WITH THE GULF IS OCCURRING. PWAT VALUES ARE MOSTLY BELOW AN INCH
AND VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTER THAT BEING SAID... WE MAY SEE UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR RAIN OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF
CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP... ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 18Z.
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE REGION TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S TO LOW 60S
THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DENSE CLOUD COVERAGE... WHICH IS EXPECT
TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MORE PROMINENT UPPR LVL LOW
WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING US AN ADDITIONAL SHOT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSAGE... AKA... A TYPICAL ANA FRONT SCENARIO. TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS
FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND THE LEADING WAVE. THIS FRONT WILL AID TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND CAN BE SEEN WITH AS AN
ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM COMPRISED OF
HIGHER REFLECTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED COOL AND SHOWERY WITH SLOWING STACKED LOW IN ERN NEW ENGLAND.
NW CAA FLOW WILL ADD SOME LAKE MOISTURE BUT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL NOT ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT. WED MORN SECONDARY
COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THE
REST OF THE DAY. LATE WED THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD END. WITH
CAA SFC MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE U40S AND L50S.

WED NGT WILL BE COLD WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS U20S TO A30.

THU WILL BE A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
L60S SRN VALLEYS. SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SFC HIGH DURING THE AFTN.

THU NGT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FRI AFTN. PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF WITH THE HIGH ONLY MOVG INTO ERN NY. TREND AGAIN
TO DELAY THE FRONT A FEW HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. AGAIN FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPES.
POSITIONING OF FRONTS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE TOO. BOTTOM LINE
UNSETTLED AND COOL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH THE IDEA THAT A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LITTLE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED AND NO THUNDER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING A MAINLY DRY SCENARIO FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT LOW CHC POPS
GOING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DESPITE SOME DOWNSTREAM DISAGREEMENT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME
TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
STILL VFR FOR NOW...BUT CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AND THICKENING AHEAD
OF INCOMING COLD FRONT. EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG FRONT WILL MOVE WNW TO ENE FROM 16Z-22Z INCLUDING
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR
SPECIFICS OF TIMING. ONLY HAVE CB IN KBGM-KAVP TAFS AT THIS
TIME...ALSO POSSIBLE AT KELM-KITH BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAF /WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS/. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS...WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS...ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
STRATUS CIG AND EVENTUAL POST FRONTAL SCT -SHRA. HOWEVER...THE IMMEDIATE
FRONTAL SHOWER-THUNDER BAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A
PUSH OF 20-25 KT GUSTS AS INDICATED IN TAFS WITHIN THE TEMPO GROUPS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SCT -SHRA AND LINGERING MVFR CIGS ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SAT... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
645 AM UPDATE... DESPITE POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...PUTTING A HOLD ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AFTER THE RECENT WARM DRY SPELL.

NEXT DAY TO WATCH WILL BE THURSDAY WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS AND RH
BELOW 30 PERCENT. QUESTION HERE WHETHER FUELS WILL DRY OUT IN
TIME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB/MSE/TAC
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...MDP/TAC









000
FXUS61 KOKX 221448
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1048 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PASS
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY LOW FORMS
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND WORKS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO
SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOP AND MOVE NEAR THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PARENT LOW
ATTACHED TO COLD FRONT DEEPENS APPROXIMATELY 5 MB THROUGH THE DAY
SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR CONSOLIDATION AND ORGANIZATION OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO THE WEST. LEFT CONVECTION AS
ISOLATED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...JUST
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND POPS FOR
SHOWERS. OVERALL...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WORKS EAST TODAY...
SENDING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. UPPER
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK PRECEDING THE FRONT THIS AFT...WITH FRONTAL
FORCING BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS. AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...
MAINLY ALOFT...WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR. DRY LOW LEVELS COULD SUPPORT
SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY SHOWERS LATE THIS AFT...BUT NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY SEVERE OR STRONG CONVECTION.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING THIS AFT. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 70 WEST OF
NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ BY 8
PM...AND FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

A GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK WED AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT.
THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH BY AFT. RIGHT NOW...CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE.

PREFERRED COLDER NAM MOS WITH THE POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION AND
CYCLONIC FLOW AIDING STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING
EAST ON FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW
AND ARRIVING HIGH WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW A BRIEF SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
BUILD OVERHEAD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION. THERE
IS A CHANCE THE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST
DAYS IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S...COOLEST READINGS NEAR THE COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THEN RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. FOR ALL
TERMINALS...START TIME OF -SHRA COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OFF...AND
A LOW CHANCE OF TSTM ACCOMPANYING SHRA.

A GENERAL SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KTS THIS MORNING MAY FLUCTUATE
DUE TO MIDDAY SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MIGHT NOT OCCUR...RESULTING IN
WINDS MOSTLY AROUND 220 MAGNETIC FROM 18Z-21Z. IF SEA BREEZE
OCCURS...IT MIGHT NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL 19Z OR 20Z. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OFF.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO
OFF...OR POSSIBLY NOT PASSING THROUGH AT ALL. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT A SEA BREEZE PASSES THROUGH
SOMETIME BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO AROUND 180 MAGNETIC.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT A SEA BREEZE DOES NOT PASS THROUGH
AS INDICATED AT 16Z...RESULTING IN WINDS PREVAILING CLOSER TO 200
MAGNETIC.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...VFR. NW G30-35KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/EVE -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

A STRONG NW FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK
WED...STRENGTHENING TO NEAR GALE FORCE BY AFT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND COAST. GALES
COULD LINGER INTO THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS WED AFT
AND NIGHT.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOWERING RH VALUES TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT AND STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL ELEVATE THE SPREAD OF ANY WILD FIRES THAT
DO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONCERNS CONTINUE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS EVEN LOWER RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT IS UP TO 1/4 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FROM WED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC/PW
MARINE...BC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221423
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY GIVING WAY TO THE 40S AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY COULD MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPDATED TO FORECAST ISSUED TO ACCT FOR
PRECIP/FROPA TIMING OVER THE AREA. CURRENTLY...MCLDY/CLDY SKIES
OVER THE REGION WITH SCT --RW OUT AHEAD OF MAIN PRECIP BAND WITH
FRONT. TIMING FOR FRONTAL PRECIP NOT CHANGED...BUT HAVE SHIFTED SL
CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA THRU REST OF MORNING HRS. CONTINUED
MENTION OF THUNDER IN FORECAST ATTM. WK INSTABILITY OVER
AREA...BETTER CHANCES SOUTH AND WILL RE-EVALUATE AT NEXT UPDATE
TIME. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WARM FRONTAL PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART...HOWEVER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT
RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. IF
ANYTHING IS FALLING FROM THIS IT WOULD BE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES.
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO MATCH PRESENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AND
BACK OFF ON TIMING OF RAIN ARRIVAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY MID
MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SURFACE LOW
TO TRACK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS COLD FRONT TRAILS TO SSW.
FRONT WILL ENTER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER NOON...COINCIDING WITH MAX
HEATING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CONVECTIVE INDICES INDICATE WEAK
INSTABILITY...ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. ADDED SLGT
CHC OF THUNDER TO FORECAST FROM ABOUT 18Z-23Z.

TEMPS...WARM TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. 52 DEG AT 4AM AT KBTV...SO
MAXES DON`T HAVE TO RISE VERY FAR TO HIT THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DIPPING BELOW FREEZING. SHOWERS TO LINGER IN
NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY FROM COLD POOL ALOFT UNTIL 500 MB
TROUGH PASSES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE UNDER APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY QUASH RAIN CHANCES.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY 1000-500MB THICKNESS DROPS BELOW 540 DAM
WITH A BRISK N TO NW WIND THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD IN FROM WEST WITH PLENTY OF SUN ON THURSDAY
OFFSETTING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN ON TAP FOR THE LONG
TERM AS THURSDAY NIGHT SEES A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY SHIFT EWD...MAKING WAY FOR A SFC LOW TO MOVE IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING FRIDAY TEMPS INTO THE 60S. MILD TEMPS
CONTINUE FRIDAY NGT IN THE M30S-M40S AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND THE
SFC LOW TRACKS TO OUR N AND W. THREAT OF PRECIP CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NGT
WITH W-NW FLOW BRINGING MIN TEMPS INTO THE U20S-U30S. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND NW FLOW
CREATING SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE HIGHER TRRN SATURDAY NGT INTO
LATE SUNDAY.

AT SAME TIME...RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE
EDGING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO.
DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS SWWD OF THE RIDGE...DRIER AIR MAY
FILTER IN...ENDING THREAT OF UPSLOPE PRECIP SUNDAY NGT INTO
MONDAY. TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER...IN THE L40S-
M50S...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S-U30S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
DETERIORATE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...SWEEPING
EWD THROUGH THE REGION AND TRIGGERING -SHRA/RA AND MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KMSS/KSLK BTWN 15Z-17Z...CPV BTWN 19Z-21Z...AND
KMPV/KRUT BTWN 20Z-22Z. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE AT TIMES...PRODUCING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN
THE WARMER MOIST AIR AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. UPSTREAMS OBS
SHOW THAT EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT TO END THE TAF PERIOD IN MVFR WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BCM GUSTY BY MID-LATE
MORNING...THEN WILL SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE W/NW DURING THE EVENING HRS...AND EXPECT
GUSTS TO SUBSIDE.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...JN/HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM








000
FXUS61 KBUF 221356
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
956 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...ACCOMPANIED WITH
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION...AND
THEN AS COLDER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT A
SECONDARY BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH SNOW TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1000 AM...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. AHEAD OF THIS...RADAR SHOWS A SOLID LINE OF
RAIN SHOWERS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT 3 HOURS OF RAIN TO THE
REGION...WITH AMOUNTS AVERAGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH. MEANWHILE...WARM
AND MOIST AIR STREAMING UP LAKE ERIE WILL MIX WITH COOLER LAKE
WATERS...RESULTING IN FOG ON THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND EVENTUALLY
NE OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER THIS MORNING. FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER THE WIND SHIFT. FOR TIMING THIS...USED THE HRRR WHICH HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND WIND SHIFT.

FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING
DRY SLOT NOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS DRY SLOT WILL
REACH WNY THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME LIMITED SUNSHINE. AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES DEEPEN THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BE
PLENTIFUL. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT...BUT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS...850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING DOWN TO
-3 TO -5C...A CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE
HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH AN UPSLOPE FLOW.
GREATEST CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW WILL ALSO BE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE A SLUSHY HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK.

TEMPERATURES ARE MILD THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT EXPECT THESE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A MOIST CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LIKELY TIED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. WE MAY ALSO SEE A BIT OF MOISTURE FLUX OFF OF
THE LAKES...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR TRUE LAKE
EFFECT PROCESSES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE REMAINING CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY CAUSE CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON...THE LAKES WILL BECOME A
STABILIZING INFLUENCE... RESULTING IN CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE
LAKES AND LAKESHORE AREAS FIRST. THEN...THE CLEARING WILL SPREAD
INLAND. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS BARELY REACHING 50. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LEAD TO A
DRY PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN TO START THE
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SUNNY
SKIES FOR THURSDAY.

THE COOL AIRMASS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
THE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY WITH BACK INTO THE MID 50S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH A BRIEF
WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WARM
OCCLUSION AT THE SURFACE WILL SWING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. THE RAIN SHOULD BE BRIEF AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION AND SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
NY. A WARMER AIRMASS WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS.

MODEL GUIDANCE QUICKLY DIVERGES WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
EVOLUTION OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
MOST ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A TURN TOWARDS MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF SWINGS A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL CUTOFF THROUGH ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
MONDAY...WITH A TROUGH DELIVERING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE CUTOFF LOW IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST TO KEEP OUR REGION MAINLY DRY.

THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND RETROGRADES THE CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...KEEPING IT OVER OR JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP MORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH THE COLDER AIR SOME OF THIS MAY BE IN
THE FORM OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MIX OF SNOW AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT BUF/IAG AND WILL PROBABLY
NOT IMPROVE UNTIL WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. THE MAIN CAUSE IS DEW
POINTS AROUND 50 OVERRUNNING THE MUCH COLDER LAKE ERIE WHICH IS
RESULTING IN LOW CIGS AND GROUND FOG. THIS WILL ALSO BECOME AN
ISSUE AT ART LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE INLAND
SITES SUCH AS JHW/ROC SHOULD HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT DUE TO THE
FURTHER DISTANCE FROM THE LAKES IN THE SOUTHWEST PRE-FRONTAL FLOW.

A DRY SLOT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
BE BRIEF AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LOWER CIGS BACK TO IFR/MVFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW MIXING IN LATE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS SNOW MAY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING KJHW.

OUTLOOK...
EARLY WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE INCREASING TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS THIS MORNING ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...AND WILL HOIST A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HERE...AND CONTINUE IT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ELSEWHERE SCA WILL REMAIN ON LAKE ONTARIO AS WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WAVES AREA EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT TODAY.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY
OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS MAY NECESSITATE A SCA
FOR THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO NON-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
         AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL/THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS






000
FXUS61 KALY 221341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
941 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL TRACK EASTWARD...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...MAINLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WITH IT. A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW COULD
FALL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A GRADUAL
CLEARING TREND BUT WINDY COOL CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...THE KENX 88-D RADAR CONTINUES TO PICK UP RETURNS
OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WHICH
SHOULD ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT POP FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE AND WERE NOT CHANGED. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS IN ORDER TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...REACHING OUR WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND THE HUDSON VALLEY AND POINTS EAST DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

THE AIR HAS BEEN SATURATING AS DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN FROM THE 20S TO
30S REGION WIDE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DRIVE PWAT VALUES TO
NEAR AN INCH AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON.

AS ASCENT AND THE MOISTURE INCREASES...SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MIDDAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD EVEN BE A
SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED LINE OF "CONVECTIVE` SHOWERS. THE SHOWALTER INDEX
(WHICH MEASURES INSTABILITY BETWEEN THE H850 AND H500 LEVEL)
APPROACHES ZERO LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION OUTLINE IN GENERAL
THUNDER. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ADD "SLIGHT CHANCE" OF THUNDER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST TODAY. WILL WE
HAVE MORE MARINE INFLUENCE THAN YESTERDAY? THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR
NO SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES TO OUR SOUTH ARE ACTUALLY COOLER.
ONCE AGAIN...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY BE FOUND IN OUR
NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD HAVE HIGHS 65 TO 70...SO
DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT
BUT THE CPD/S ARE NOT TOO LOW TO KEEP THE CHC-SCT POPS IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  DRY SLOT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FROPA IS
FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANY RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE IS
PROGRESSIVE AND THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP THOSE POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT
CATEGORY.

THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
ACROSS NOAM WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR...BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND A MORE VIGOROUS
TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.  THE NET RESULT FOR OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A COOLER
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME BUT QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS.  THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A DRIER SOLUTION AS
OPPOSED TO THE GFS.  THE GGEM IS SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE SOLUTION AS WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TRENDS ARE FAVORING COOLER VALUES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THOSE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW 0C ONCE AGAIN.  IN
FACT...THE ECMWF DROPS BACK THOSE TEMPS TO AROUND -8C OVER NY WITH
THE GFS HOVERING AROUND 0C.  THE GGEM IS IN THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH
-4C.  THIS WILL KEEP VALLEY TEMPS MAINLY INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE
50S WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S WHERE SOME THE PRECIP COULD MIX WITH SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

MAIN AVIATION IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  UPSTREAM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN AROUND
MVFR CIGS WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION WITH THE SHOWERS.  IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

DUE TO A BREEZE AND HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY AREAS DID NOT FULLY RECOVER
OVERNIGHT AS RH VALUES WERE MOSTLY WELL BELOW 100 PERCENT.

MAINLY DRY EARLY...BUT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN AREA AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS COULD FALL A LITTLE SHORT OF THIS
THRESHOLD.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS TO TURN
RATHER WINDY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...LOOKS TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING
BELOW 30 PERCENT. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH 30-35 MPH BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE 50S
VALLEY LOCATIONS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

THAT BREEZE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TO 5 TO 15
MPH LATER OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS BREEZE ONCE AGAIN A FULL RECOVERY
MIGHT NOT HAPPEN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND
FREEZING OR A LITTLE LOWER.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH
25-30 MPH SO WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS. IF WE FAIL
TO REACH THE QUARTER INCH CRITERIA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...COORDINATION
MIGHT BE NEEDED WITH OUR STATE LIAISON PERSONNEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
LOCALLY HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...GJM/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM
















000
FXUS61 KBUF 221313
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
913 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...ACCOMPANIED WITH
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION...AND
THEN AS COLDER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT A
SECONDARY BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH SNOW TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 900 AM...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT JUST TO OUR WEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AHEAD OF THIS...RADAR SHOWS A FAIRLY
SOLID LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT 3 HOURS OF RAIN
TO THE REGION...WITH AMOUNTS AVERAGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH.
ALSO...WARM AND MOIST AIR STREAMING UP LAKE ERIE WILL MIX WITH
COOLER LAKE WATERS...RESULTING IN FOG ON THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
EVENTUALLY NE OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER THIS MORNING. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.

INSTABILITY REMAINS MINIMAL...THOUGH SOME SFC CAPE AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL REACH ACROSS THE ALLEGANY PLATEAU AND BRISTOL HILLS
TODAY AND WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER HERE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING DRY SLOT NOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS DRY SLOT WILL REACH WNY THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LIMITED SUNSHINE. AS UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVES DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A SECONDARY SURFACE
TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL BE PLENTIFUL. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING
LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT...BUT
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS...850 HPA TEMPS
DROPPING DOWN TO -3 TO -5C...A CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH AN UPSLOPE FLOW. GREATEST CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW WILL ALSO BE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A SLUSHY HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK.

TEMPERATURES ARE MILD THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT EXPECT THESE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A MOIST CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LIKELY TIED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. WE MAY ALSO SEE A BIT OF MOISTURE FLUX OFF OF
THE LAKES...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR TRUE LAKE
EFFECT PROCESSES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE REMAINING CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY CAUSE CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON...THE LAKES WILL BECOME A
STABILIZING INFLUENCE... RESULTING IN CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE
LAKES AND LAKESHORE AREAS FIRST. THEN...THE CLEARING WILL SPREAD
INLAND. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS BARELY REACHING 50. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LEAD TO A
DRY PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN TO START THE
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SUNNY
SKIES FOR THURSDAY.

THE COOL AIRMASS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
THE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY WITH BACK INTO THE MID 50S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH A BRIEF
WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WARM
OCCLUSION AT THE SURFACE WILL SWING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. THE RAIN SHOULD BE BRIEF AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION AND SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
NY. A WARMER AIRMASS WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS.

MODEL GUIDANCE QUICKLY DIVERGES WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
EVOLUTION OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
MOST ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A TURN TOWARDS MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF SWINGS A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL CUTOFF THROUGH ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
MONDAY...WITH A TROUGH DELIVERING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE CUTOFF LOW IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST TO KEEP OUR REGION MAINLY DRY.

THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND RETROGRADES THE CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...KEEPING IT OVER OR JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP MORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH THE COLDER AIR SOME OF THIS MAY BE IN
THE FORM OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MIX OF SNOW AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT BUF/IAG AND WILL PROBABLY
NOT IMPROVE UNTIL WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. THE MAIN CAUSE IS DEW
POINTS AROUND 50 OVERRUNNING THE MUCH COLDER LAKE ERIE WHICH IS
RESULTING IN LOW CIGS AND GROUND FOG. THIS WILL ALSO BECOME AN
ISSUE AT ART LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE INLAND
SITES SUCH AS JHW/ROC SHOULD HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT DUE TO THE
FURTHER DISTANCE FROM THE LAKES IN THE SOUTHWEST PRE-FRONTAL FLOW.

A DRY SLOT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
BE BRIEF AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LOWER CIGS BACK TO IFR/MVFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW MIXING IN LATE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS SNOW MAY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING KJHW.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER AROUND TO WEST AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
EARLY WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE INCREASING TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS THIS MORNING ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...AND WILL HOIST A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HERE...AND CONTINUE IT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ELSEWHERE SCA WILL REMAIN ON LAKE ONTARIO AS WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WAVES AREA EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT TODAY.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER...POSSIBLY TO NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS MAY NECESSITATE
A SCA FOR THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO NON-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
         AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL/THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 221139
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
739 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...ACCOMPANIED WITH
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION...AND
THEN AS COLDER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT A
SECONDARY BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH SNOW TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING DISPLAYS A CONSOLIDATING AND
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR SAINT CATHARINES TO LONG POINT AND THEN BACK
INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND A SECOND SHORTWAVE
NEARING MINNESOTA AND DIVING INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WEAK
LLJ ACROSS AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

FOR TODAY LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK WHILE SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM SHOW MANY OF THESE SHOWERS ARE LIGHT. EXPECT RAINFALL TODAY
TO AVERAGE AROUND A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

INSTABILITY REMAINS MINIMAL...THOUGH SOME SFC CAPE AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL REACH ACROSS THE ALLEGANY PLATEAU AND BRISTOL HILLS
TODAY AND WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER HERE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING DRY SLOT NOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS DRY SLOT WILL REACH WNY THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LIMITED SUNSHINE. AS UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVES DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A SECONDARY SURFACE
TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL BE PLENTIFUL. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING
LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT...BUT
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS...850 HPA TEMPS
DROPPING DOWN TO -3 TO -5C...A CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH AN UPSLOPE FLOW. GREATEST CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW WILL ALSO BE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A SLUSHY HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK.

TEMPERATURES ARE MILD THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT EXPECT THESE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A MOIST CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LIKELY TIED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. WE MAY ALSO SEE A BIT OF MOISTURE FLUX OFF OF
THE LAKES...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR TRUE LAKE
EFFECT PROCESSES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE REMAINING CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY CAUSE CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON...THE LAKES WILL BECOME A
STABILIZING INFLUENCE... RESULTING IN CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE
LAKES AND LAKESHORE AREAS FIRST. THEN...THE CLEARING WILL SPREAD
INLAND. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS BARELY REACHING 50. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LEAD TO A
DRY PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN TO START THE
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SUNNY
SKIES FOR THURSDAY.

THE COOL AIRMASS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
THE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY WITH BACK INTO THE MID 50S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH A BRIEF
WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WARM
OCCLUSION AT THE SURFACE WILL SWING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. THE RAIN SHOULD BE BRIEF AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION AND SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
NY. A WARMER AIRMASS WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS.

MODEL GUIDANCE QUICKLY DIVERGES WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
EVOLUTION OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
MOST ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A TURN TOWARDS MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF SWINGS A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL CUTOFF THROUGH ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
MONDAY...WITH A TROUGH DELIVERING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE CUTOFF LOW IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST TO KEEP OUR REGION MAINLY DRY.

THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND RETROGRADES THE CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...KEEPING IT OVER OR JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP MORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH THE COLDER AIR SOME OF THIS MAY BE IN
THE FORM OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MIX OF SNOW AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 12Z IFR TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AREA NOW PASSING THROUGH
WNY...AND AT TIMES WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY VSBYS ARE DROPPING TO IFR.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TO TAF SITES TO THE EAST. GENERALLY
MVFR VSBYS...WITH LOCALLY AND BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR IN HEAVIER
ACTIVITY. CIGS WILL GENERALLY HOLD TO MVFR FLIGHT RANGE...THOUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS SOME IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS KJHW.

A DRY SLOT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
BE BRIEF AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LOWER CIGS BACK TO IFR/MVFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW MIXING IN LATE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS SNOW MAY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING KJHW.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER AROUND TO WEST AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
EARLY WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE INCREASING TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS THIS MORNING ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...AND WILL HOIST A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HERE...AND CONTINUE IT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ELSEWHERE SCA WILL REMAIN ON LAKE ONTARIO AS WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WAVES AREA EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT TODAY.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER...POSSIBLY TO NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS MAY NECESSITATE
A SCA FOR THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO NON-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
         AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 221129
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
729 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PASS
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY LOW FORMS
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND WORKS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO
SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE WITH MOST RECENT UPDATE TO ACCOUNT
FOR INITIAL CONDITIONS.

SFC COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL TRACK EAST
TODAY...PRECEDED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER WESTERN PA THIS
MORNING. THE LATTER OF WHICH WILL WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE
AREA. A WEAK SLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP TROUGH
THE DAY. THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONCERN FOR STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS TO THE SOUTH AND WORK NORTH INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS NO INDICATION OF
DEVELOPMENT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. IN ADDITION...DEW POINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S TO THE SOUTH MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED.

AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WORKS EAST TODAY...
SENDING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. UPPER
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK PRECEDING THE FRONT THIS AFT...WITH FRONTAL
FORCING BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS. AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...
MAINLY ALOFT...WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR. DRY LOW LEVELS COULD SUPPORT
SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY SHOWERS LATE THIS AFT...BUT NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY SEVERE OR STRONG CONVECTION.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING THIS AFT. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 70 WEST OF
NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ BY 8
PM...AND FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

A GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK WED AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT.
THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH BY AFT. RIGHT NOW...CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE.

PREFERRED COLDER NAM MOS WITH THE POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION AND
CYCLONIC FLOW AIDING STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING
EAST ON FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW
AND ARRIVING HIGH WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW A BRIEF SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
BUILD OVERHEAD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION. THERE
IS A CHANCE THE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST
DAYS IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S...COOLEST READINGS NEAR THE COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THEN RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. FOR ALL
TERMINALS...START TIME OF -SHRA COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OFF...AND
A LOW CHANCE OF TSTM ACCOMPANYING SHRA.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING
PUSH. CONFIDENCE LOWERS BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MIGHT NOT OCCUR...RESULTING IN
WINDS MOSTLY AROUND 220 MAGNETIC FROM 18Z-21Z. IF SEA BREEZE
OCCURS...IT MIGHT NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL 19Z OR 20Z. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OFF.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO
OFF...OR POSSIBLY NOT PASSING THROUGH AT ALL. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT A SEA BREEZE PASSES THROUGH
SOMETIME BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO AROUND 180 MAGNETIC.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT A SEA BREEZE DOES NOT PASS THROUGH
AS INDICATED AT 16Z...RESULTING IN WINDS PREVAILING CLOSER TO 200
MAGNETIC.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...VFR. NW G30-35KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/EVE -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

A STRONG NW FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK
WED...STRENGTHENING TO NEAR GALE FORCE BY AFT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND COAST. GALES
COULD LINGER INTO THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS WED AFT
AND NIGHT.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOWERING RH VALUES TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT AND STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL ELEVATE THE SPREAD OF ANY WILD FIRES THAT
DO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONCERNS CONTINUE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS EVEN LOWER RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT IS UP TO 1/4 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FROM WED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW







000
FXUS61 KBTV 221128
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY GIVING WAY TO THE 40S AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY COULD MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 726 AM EDT TUESDAY...WARM FRONTAL PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART...HOWEVER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT
RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. IF
ANYTHING IS FALLING FROM THIS IT WOULD BE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES.
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO MATCH PRESENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AND
BACK OFF ON TIMING OF RAIN ARRIVAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY MID
MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SURFACE LOW
TO TRACK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS COLD FRONT TRAILS TO SSW.
FRONT WILL ENTER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER NOON...COINCIDING WITH MAX
HEATING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CONVECTIVE INDICES INDICATE WEAK
INSTABILITY...ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. ADDED SLGT
CHC OF THUNDER TO FORECAST FROM ABOUT 18Z-23Z.

TEMPS...WARM TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. 52 DEG AT 4AM AT KBTV...SO
MAXES DON`T HAVE TO RISE VERY FAR TO HIT THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DIPPING BELOW FREEZING. SHOWERS TO LINGER IN
NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY FROM COLD POOL ALOFT UNTIL 500 MB
TROUGH PASSES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE UNDER APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY QUASH RAIN CHANCES.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY 1000-500MB THICKNESS DROPS BELOW 540 DAM
WITH A BRISK N TO NW WIND THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD IN FROM WEST WITH PLENTY OF SUN ON THURSDAY
OFFSETTING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN ON TAP FOR THE LONG
TERM AS THURSDAY NIGHT SEES A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY SHIFT EWD...MAKING WAY FOR A SFC LOW TO MOVE IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING FRIDAY TEMPS INTO THE 60S. MILD TEMPS
CONTINUE FRIDAY NGT IN THE M30S-M40S AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND THE
SFC LOW TRACKS TO OUR N AND W. THREAT OF PRECIP CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NGT
WITH W-NW FLOW BRINGING MIN TEMPS INTO THE U20S-U30S. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND NW FLOW
CREATING SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE HIGHER TRRN SATURDAY NGT INTO
LATE SUNDAY.

AT SAME TIME...RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE
EDGING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO.
DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS SWWD OF THE RIDGE...DRIER AIR MAY
FILTER IN...ENDING THREAT OF UPSLOPE PRECIP SUNDAY NGT INTO
MONDAY. TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER...IN THE L40S-
M50S...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S-U30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
DETERIORATE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...SWEEPING
EWD THROUGH THE REGION AND TRIGGERING -SHRA/RA AND MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KMSS/KSLK BTWN 15Z-17Z...CPV BTWN 19Z-21Z...AND
KMPV/KRUT BTWN 20Z-22Z. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE AT TIMES...PRODUCING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN
THE WARMER MOIST AIR AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. UPSTREAMS OBS
SHOW THAT EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT TO END THE TAF PERIOD IN MVFR WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BCM GUSTY BY MID-LATE
MORNING...THEN WILL SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE W/NW DURING THE EVENING HRS...AND EXPECT
GUSTS TO SUBSIDE.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM









000
FXUS61 KBTV 221127
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY GIVING WAY TO THE 40S AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY COULD MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 726 AM EDT TUESDAY...WARM FRONTAL PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART...HOWEVER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT
RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. IF
ANYTHING IS FALLING FROM THIS IT WOULD BE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES.
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO MATCH PRESENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AND
BACK OFF ON TIMING OF RAIN ARRIVAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY MID
MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SURFACE LOW
TO TRACK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS COLD FRONT TRAILS TO SSW.
FRONT WILL ENTER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER NOON...COINCIDING WITH MAX
HEATING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CONVECTIVE INDICES INDICATE WEAK
INSTABILITY...ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. ADDED SLGT
CHC OF THUNDER TO FORECAST FROM ABOUT 18Z-23Z.

TEMPS...WARM TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. 52 DEG AT 4AM AT KBTV...SO
MAXES DON`T HAVE TO RISE VERY FAR TO HIT THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DIPPING BELOW FREEZING. SHOWERS TO LINGER IN
NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY FROM COLD POOL ALOFT UNTIL 500 MB
TROUGH PASSES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE UNDER APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY QUASH RAIN CHANCES.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY 1000-500MB THICKNESS DROPS BELOW 540 DAM
WITH A BRISK N TO NW WIND THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD IN FROM WEST WITH PLENTY OF SUN ON THURSDAY
OFFSETTING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN ON TAP FOR THE LONG
TERM AS THURSDAY NIGHT SEES A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY SHIFT EWD...MAKING WAY FOR A SFC LOW TO MOVE IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING FRIDAY TEMPS INTO THE 60S. MILD TEMPS
CONTINUE FRIDAY NGT IN THE M30S-M40S AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND THE
SFC LOW TRACKS TO OUR N AND W. THREAT OF PRECIP CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NGT
WITH W-NW FLOW BRINGING MIN TEMPS INTO THE U20S-U30S. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND NW FLOW
CREATING SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE HIGHER TRRN SATURDAY NGT INTO
LATE SUNDAY.

AT SAME TIME...RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE
EDGING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO.
DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS SWWD OF THE RIDGE...DRIER AIR MAY
FILTER IN...ENDING THREAT OF UPSLOPE PRECIP SUNDAY NGT INTO
MONDAY. TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER...IN THE L40S-
M50S...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S-U30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT BRINGING SOME SHRA
TO KMSS...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION VCSH AT KBTV/KPBG AND
-SHRA AT KMSS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THRU MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...SWEEPING EWD THROUGH THE REGION...TRIGGERING
-SHRA/RA AT KMSS/KSLK BTWN 15Z-17Z...CPV BTWN 19Z-21Z...AND
KMPV/KRUT BTWN 20Z-22Z. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE AT TIME...PRODUCING
MVFR CONDITIONS. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE
WARMER MOIST AIR AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SW/W BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE KEEPING -SHRA AND LVL MVFR CIGS INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE W/NW DURING
THE EVENING HRS TUESDAY NGT.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
726 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL TRACK EASTWARD...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...MAINLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WITH IT. A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW COULD
FALL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A GRADUAL
CLEARING TREND BUT WINDY COOL CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...THE KENX 88-D RADAR WAS PICKING UP SOME RETURNS
WORKING INTO HERKIMER COUNTY. MIGHT JUST BE MID LEVEL CLOUDS...OR
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES. UPSTREAM OBS REMAIN DRY UNTIL ONE GOES BACK
TOWARD ROCHESTER NY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED AROUND 50 TO 55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM
ALBANY NORTH. (NOTE GLENS FALLS FOR A CHANGE WAS ONE OF THE MILDEST
PLACES AT 56!) OTHER PLACES WERE IN THE 45-50 RANGE.

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...REACHING OUR WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND THE HUDSON VALLEY AND POINTS EAST DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

THE AIR HAS BEEN SATURATING AS DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN FROM THE 20S TO
30S REGION WIDE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DRIVE PWAT VALUES TO
NEAR AN INCH AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON.

AS ASCENT AND THE MOISTURE INCREASES...SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MIDDAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD EVEN BE A
SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED LINE OF "CONVECTIVE` SHOWERS. THE SHOWALTER INDEX
(WHICH MEASURES INSTABILITY BETWEEN THE H850 AND H500 LEVEL)
APPROACHES ZERO LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION OUTLINE IN GENERAL
THUNDER. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ADD "SLIGHT CHANCE" OF THUNDER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST TODAY. WILL WE
HAVE MORE MARINE INFLUENCE THAN YESTERDAY? THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR
NO SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES TO OUR SOUTH ARE ACTUALLY COOLER.
ONCE AGAIN...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY BE FOUND IN OUR
NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD HAVE HIGHS 65 TO 70...SO
DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT
BUT THE CPD/S ARE NOT TOO LOW TO KEEP THE CHC-SCT POPS IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  DRY SLOT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FROPA IS
FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANY RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE IS
PROGRESSIVE AND THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP THOSE POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT
CATEGORY.

THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
ACROSS NOAM WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR...BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND A MORE VIGOROUS
TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.  THE NET RESULT FOR OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A COOLER
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME BUT QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS.  THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A DRIER SOLUTION AS
OPPOSED TO THE GFS.  THE GGEM IS SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE SOLUTION AS WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TRENDS ARE FAVORING COOLER VALUES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THOSE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW 0C ONCE AGAIN.  IN
FACT...THE ECMWF DROPS BACK THOSE TEMPS TO AROUND -8C OVER NY WITH
THE GFS HOVERING AROUND 0C.  THE GGEM IS IN THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH
-4C.  THIS WILL KEEP VALLEY TEMPS MAINLY INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE
50S WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S WHERE SOME THE PRECIP COULD MIX WITH SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

MAIN AVIATION IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  UPSTREAM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN AROUND
MVFR CIGS WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION WITH THE SHOWERS.  IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

DUE TO A BREEZE AND HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY AREAS DID NOT FULLY RECOVER
OVERNIGHT AS RH VALUES WERE MOSTLY WELL BELOW 100 PERCENT.

MAINLY DRY EARLY...BUT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN AREA AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS COULD FALL A LITTLE SHORT OF THIS
THRESHOLD.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS TO TURN
RATHER WINDY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...LOOKS TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING
BELOW 30 PERCENT. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH 30-35 MPH BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE 50S
VALLEY LOCATIONS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

THAT BREEZE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TO 5 TO 15
MPH LATER OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS BREEZE ONCE AGAIN A FULL RECOVERY
MIGHT NOT HAPPEN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND
FREEZING OR A LITTLE LOWER.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH
25-30 MPH SO WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS. IF WE FAIL
TO REACH THE QUARTER INCH CRITERIA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...COORDINATION
MIGHT BE NEEDED WITH OUR STATE LIAISON PERSONNEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
LOCALLY HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM













000
FXUS61 KBGM 221052
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
652 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS THICKEN THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING TO DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FRIDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN WITH APPROACH OF
INCOMING FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY MARKED BY SHOWERS STRETCHING
FROM THE ONTARIO PENINSULA TO LAKE ERIE TO NORTHERN OHIO. THE
CONTINUED WARM FEED OF AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND LACK OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING...KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
READINGS AROUND DAWN MAINLY IN THE 50S. SYRACUSE AT 6 AM WAS EVEN
STILL 61 DEGREES...IN CONTRAST TO MONTICELLO AT 43. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE TRICKY TODAY BECAUSE OF FRONTAL TIMING AND THICKENING
CLOUDS/DEVELOPING SHOWERS/EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. HIGHS OF MAINLY
60S WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES...MIDDAY FOR
CENTRAL ZONES...AND EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT...NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS NOW QUICKLY
DIGGING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP.
AS THIS WAVE CATCHES UP TO THE FRONT LATER TODAY...IT WILL PROVIDE
A NICE SHOT OF ENERGY/PVA AND MAY EVEN EXHIBIT SOME NEGATIVE
TILTING. THE NAM MODEL FOR SEVERAL RUNS HAS SHOWN SOME CAPE IN THE
PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...AND IT IS BEEN JOINED SOMEWHAT BY THE
HIGH RES MODELS...AND EVEN THE RELUCTANT GFS IS AT LEAST HINTING
AT MARGINAL INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE ABOVE...I HAVE ADDED CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN TWIN TIERS TO WYOMING VALLEY BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE SINCE REALIZING THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE A BIT
OF A STRUGGLE. ALSO HONED IN ON SPECIFIC SHOWER TIMING BASED ON
FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED FRONTAL POSITIONING. AS IT LOOKS NOW...TIMING
OF FRONT WOULD BE FINGER LAKES EARLY AFTERNOON...TOWANDA-
BINGHAMTON-UTICA AROUND 3PM...SCRANTON-DELHI AROUND 5PM...AND
MONTICELLO 6PM. ALL TOLD...WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FRONT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STRUGGLING TO EVEN BRIEFLY REACH NEAR AN
INCH...ONLY EXPECTING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL.

UNTIL THE FRONT ITSELF...SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED AND BATTLING
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR...AND SO MUCH WILL BE
VIRGA OR SPRINKLES. THEN WHEN THE FRONT AND SHOWERS-EMBEDDED THUNDER
COME THROUGH...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 20-30 MPH
GUSTS EVEN THOUGH SHEAR ITSELF IS NOMINAL...BECAUSE OF INVERTED-V
LOOK TO THE SOUNDINGS AND THUS COLD POOL PRODUCTION FROM
EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

FRONTAL SHOWERS QUICKLY EXIT EAST EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION...SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY. MIXING IN OF WET SNOWFLAKES NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...BUT VAST MAJORITY WILL
NOT SEE IT AND THOSE THAT DO WILL NOT HAVE ANY ACCUMULATION. LOWS
TONIGHT GENERALLY MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED COOL AND SHOWERY WITH SLOWING STACKED LOW IN ERN NEW ENGLAND.
NW CAA FLOW WILL ADD SOME LAKE MOISTURE BUT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL NOT ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT. WED MORN SECONDARY
COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THE
REST OF THE DAY. LATE WED THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD END. WITH
CAA SFC MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE U40S AND L50S.

WED NGT WILL BE COLD WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS U20S TO A30.

THU WILL BE A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
L60S SRN VALLEYS. SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SFC HIGH DURING THE AFTN.

THU NGT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FRI AFTN. PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF WITH THE HIGH ONLY MOVG INTO ERN NY. TREND AGAIN
TO DELAY THE FRONT A FEW HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. AGAIN FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPES.
POSITIONING OF FRONTS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE TOO. BOTTOM LINE
UNSETTLED AND COOL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH THE IDEA THAT A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LITTLE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED AND NO THUNDER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING A MAINLY DRY SCENARIO FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT LOW CHC POPS
GOING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DESPITE SOME DOWNSTREAM DISAGREEMENT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME
TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
STILL VFR FOR NOW...BUT CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AND THICKENING AHEAD
OF INCOMING COLD FRONT. EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG FRONT WILL MOVE WNW TO ENE FROM 16Z-22Z INCLUDING
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR
SPECIFICS OF TIMING. ONLY HAVE CB IN KBGM-KAVP TAFS AT THIS
TIME...ALSO POSSIBLE AT KELM-KITH BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAF /WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS/. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS...WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS...ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
STRATUS CIG AND EVENTUAL POST FRONTAL SCT -SHRA. HOWEVER...THE IMMEDIATE
FRONTAL SHOWER-THUNDER BAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A
PUSH OF 20-25 KT GUSTS AS INDICATED IN TAFS WITHIN THE TEMPO GROUPS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SCT -SHRA AND LINGERING MVFR CIGS ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SAT... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
645 AM UPDATE... DESPITE POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...PUTTING A HOLD ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AFTER THE RECENT WARM DRY SPELL.

NEXT DAY TO WATCH WILL BE THURSDAY WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS AND RH
BELOW 30 PERCENT. QUESTION HERE WHETHER FUELS WILL DRY OUT IN
TIME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB/MSE/TAC
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...MDP/TAC







000
FXUS61 KALY 221045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL TRACK EASTWARD...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...MAINLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WITH IT. A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW COULD
FALL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A GRADUAL
CLEARING TREND BUT WINDY COOL CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...THE KENX 88-D RADAR WAS PICKING UP SOME RETURNS
WORKING INTO HERKIMER COUNTY. MIGHT JUST BE MID LEVEL CLOUDS...OR
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES. UPSTREAM OBS REMAIN DRY UNTIL ONE GOES BACK
TOWARD ROCHESTER NY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED AROUND 50 TO 55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM
ALBANY NORTH. (NOTE GLENS FALLS FOR A CHANGE WAS ONE OF THE MILDEST
PLACES AT 56!) OTHER PLACES WERE IN THE 45-50 RANGE.

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...REACHING OUR WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND THE HUDSON VALLEY AND POINTS EAST DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

THE AIR HAS BEEN SATURATING AS DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN FROM THE 20S TO
30S REGION WIDE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DRIVE PWAT VALUES TO
NEAR AN INCH AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON.

AS ASCENT AND THE MOISTURE INCREASES...SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MIDDAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD EVEN BE A
SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED LINE OF "CONVECTIVE` SHOWERS. THE SHOWALTER INDEX
(WHICH MEASURES INSTABILITY BETWEEN THE H850 AND H500 LEVEL)
APPROACHES ZERO LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION OUTLINE IN GENERAL
THUNDER. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ADD "SLIGHT CHANCE" OF THUNDER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST TODAY. WILL WE
HAVE MORE MARINE INFLUENCE THAN YESTERDAY? THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR
NO SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES TO OUR SOUTH ARE ACTUALLY COOLER.
ONCE AGAIN...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY BE FOUND IN OUR
NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD HAVE HIGHS 65 TO 70...SO
DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT
BUT THE CPD/S ARE NOT TOO LOW TO KEEP THE CHC-SCT POPS IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  DRY SLOT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FROPA IS
FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANY RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE IS
PROGRESSIVE AND THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP THOSE POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT
CATEGORY.

THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
ACROSS NOAM WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR...BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND A MORE VIGOROUS
TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.  THE NET RESULT FOR OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A COOLER
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME BUT QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS.  THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A DRIER SOLUTION AS
OPPOSED TO THE GFS.  THE GGEM IS SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE SOLUTION AS WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TRENDS ARE FAVORING COOLER VALUES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THOSE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW 0C ONCE AGAIN.  IN
FACT...THE ECMWF DROPS BACK THOSE TEMPS TO AROUND -8C OVER NY WITH
THE GFS HOVERING AROUND 0C.  THE GGEM IS IN THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH
-4C.  THIS WILL KEEP VALLEY TEMPS MAINLY INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE
50S WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S WHERE SOME THE PRECIP COULD MIX WITH SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

MAIN AVIATION IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  UPSTREAM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN AROUND
MVFR CIGS WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION WITH THE SHOWERS.  IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

DUE TO A BREEZE AND HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY AREAS DID NOT FULLY RECOVER
OVERNIGHT AS RH VALUES WERE MOSTLY WELL BELOW 100 PERCENT.

MAINLY DRY EARLY...BUT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN AREA AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS COULD FALL A LITTLE SHORT OF THIS
THRESHOLD.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS TO TURN
RATHER WINDY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...LOOKS TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING
BELOW 30 PERCENT. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH 30-35 MPH BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE 50S
VALLEY LOCATIONS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

THAT BREEZE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TO 5 TO 15
MPH LATER OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS BREEZE ONCE AGAIN A FULL RECOVERY
MIGHT NOT HAPPEN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND
FREEZING OR A LITTLE LOWER.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH
25-30 MPH SO WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS. IF WE FAIL
TO REACH THE QUARTER INCH CRITERIA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...COORDINATION
MIGHT BE NEEDED WITH OUR STATE LIAISON PERSONNEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
LOCALLY HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM










000
FXUS61 KOKX 221026
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
626 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PASS
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY LOW FORMS
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND WORKS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO
SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE WITH MOST RECENT UPDATE TO ACCOUNT
FOR INITIAL CONDITIONS.

SFC COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL TRACK EAST
TODAY...PRECEDED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER WESTERN PA THIS
MORNING. THE LATTER OF WHICH WILL WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE
AREA. A WEAK SLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP TROUGH
THE DAY. THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONCERN FOR STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS TO THE SOUTH AND WORK NORTH INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS NO INDICATION OF
DEVELOPMENT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. IN ADDITION...DEW POINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S TO THE SOUTH MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED.

AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WORKS EAST TODAY...
SENDING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. UPPER
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK PRECEDING THE FRONT THIS AFT...WITH FRONTAL
FORCING BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS. AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...
MAINLY ALOFT...WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR. DRY LOW LEVELS COULD SUPPORT
SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY SHOWERS LATE THIS AFT...BUT NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY SEVERE OR STRONG CONVECTION.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING THIS AFT. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 70 WEST OF
NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ BY 8
PM...AND FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

A GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK WED AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT.
THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH BY AFT. RIGHT NOW...CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE.

PREFERRED COLDER NAM MOS WITH THE POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION AND
CYCLONIC FLOW AIDING STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING
EAST ON FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW
AND ARRIVING HIGH WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW A BRIEF SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
BUILD OVERHEAD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION. THERE
IS A CHANCE THE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST
DAYS IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S...COOLEST READINGS NEAR THE COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THEN RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. FOR ALL
TERMINALS...START TIME OF -SHRA COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OFF. FOR ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KISP/KBDR/KGON...LOW CHANCE OF TSTM ACCOMPANYING
SHRA.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING
PUSH. CONFIDENCE LOWERS BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MIGHT NOT OCCUR...RESULTING IN
WINDS MOSTLY AROUND 220 MAGNETIC FROM 18Z-21Z. IF SEA BREEZE
OCCURS...IT MIGHT NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL 19Z OR 20Z. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OFF.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO
OFF...OR POSSIBLY NOT PASSING THROUGH AT ALL. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT A SEA BREEZE PASSES THROUGH
SOMETIME BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO AROUND 180 MAGNETIC.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT A SEA BREEZE DOES NOT PASS THROUGH
AS INDICATED AT 16Z...RESULTING IN WINDS PREVAILING CLOSER TO 200
MAGNETIC.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO 3-5SM VSBYS MIGHT NOT OCCUR EARLY THIS
MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...VFR. NW G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR. NW G30-35KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/EVE -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

A STRONG NW FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK
WED...STRENGTHENING TO NEAR GALE FORCE BY AFT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND COAST. GALES
COULD LINGER INTO THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS WED AFT
AND NIGHT.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOWERING RH VALUES TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT AND STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL ELEVATE THE SPREAD OF ANY WILD FIRES THAT
DO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONCERNS CONTINUE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS EVEN LOWER RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT IS UP TO 1/4 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FROM WED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 220900
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
500 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PASS
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY LOW FORMS
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND WORKS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO
SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL TRACK EAST
TODAY...PRECEDED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER WESTERN PA THIS
MORNING. THE LATTER OF WHICH WILL WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE
AREA. A WEAK SLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP TROUGH
THE DAY. THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONCERN FOR STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS TO THE SOUTH AND WORK NORTH INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS NO INDICATION OF
DEVELOPMENT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. IN ADDITION...DEW POINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S TO THE SOUTH MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED.

AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WORKS EAST TODAY...
SENDING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. UPPER
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK PRECEDING THE FRONT THIS AFT...WITH FRONTAL
FORCING BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS. AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...
MAINLY ALOFT...WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR. DRY LOW LEVELS COULD SUPPORT
SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY SHOWERS LATE THIS AFT...BUT NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY SEVERE OR STRONG CONVECTION.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING THIS AFT. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 70 WEST OF
NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ BY 8
PM...AND FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

A GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK WED AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT.
THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH BY AFT. RIGHT NOW...CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE.

PREFERRED COLDER NAM MOS WITH THE POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION AND
CYCLONIC FLOW AIDING STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING
EAST ON FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW
AND ARRIVING HIGH WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW A BRIEF SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
BUILD OVERHEAD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION. THERE
IS A CHANCE THE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST
DAYS IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S...COOLEST READINGS NEAR THE COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THEN RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. FOR ALL
TERMINALS...START TIME OF -SHRA COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OFF. FOR ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KISP/KBDR/KGON...LOW CHANCE OF TSTM ACCOMPANYING
SHRA.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING
PUSH. CONFIDENCE LOWERS BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MIGHT NOT OCCUR...RESULTING IN
WINDS MOSTLY AROUND 220 MAGNETIC FROM 18Z-21Z. IF SEA BREEZE
OCCURS...IT MIGHT NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL 19Z OR 20Z. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OFF.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO
OFF...OR POSSIBLY NOT PASSING THROUGH AT ALL. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT A SEA BREEZE PASSES THROUGH
SOMETIME BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO AROUND 180 MAGNETIC.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT A SEA BREEZE DOES NOT PASS THROUGH
AS INDICATED AT 16Z...RESULTING IN WINDS PREVAILING CLOSER TO 200
MAGNETIC.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO 3-5SM VSBYS MIGHT NOT OCCUR EARLY THIS
MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...VFR. NW G20-25KT.
.WED...VFR. NW G30-35KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/EVE -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.


&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

A STRONG NW FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK
WED...STRENGTHENING TO NEAR GALE FORCE BY AFT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND COAST. GALES
COULD LINGER INTO THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS WED AFT
AND NIGHT.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOWERING RH VALUES TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT AND STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL ELEVATE THE SPREAD OF ANY WILD FIRES THAT
DO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONCERNS CONTINUE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS EVEN LOWER RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT IS UP TO 1/4 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FROM WED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...DW
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW







000
FXUS61 KBTV 220836
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
436 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY GIVING WAY TO THE 40S AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY COULD MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...WARM FRONTAL PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART...HOWEVER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT
RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. IF
ANYTHING IS FALLING FROM THIS IT WOULD BE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES.

NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY MID
MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SURFACE LOW
TO TRACK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS COLD FRONT TRAILS TO SSW.
FRONT WILL ENTER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER NOON...COINCIDING WITH MAX
HEATING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CONVECTIVE INDICES INDICATE WEAK
INSTABILITY...ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. ADDED SLGT
CHC OF THUNDER TO FORECAST FROM ABOUT 18Z-23Z.

TEMPS...WARM TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. 52 DEG AT 4AM AT KBTV...SO
MAXES DON`T HAVE TO RISE VERY FAR TO HIT THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DIPPING BELOW FREEZING. SHOWERS TO LINGER IN
NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY FROM COLD POOL ALOFT UNTIL 500 MB
TROUGH PASSES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE UNDER APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY QUASH RAIN CHANCES.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY 1000-500MB THICKNESS DROPS BELOW 540 DAM
WITH A BRISK N TO NW WIND THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD IN FROM WEST WITH PLENTY OF SUN ON THURSDAY
OFFSETTING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN ON TAP FOR THE LONG
TERM AS THURSDAY NIGHT SEES A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY SHIFT EWD...MAKING WAY FOR A SFC LOW TO MOVE IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING FRIDAY TEMPS INTO THE 60S. MILD TEMPS
CONTINUE FRIDAY NGT IN THE M30S-M40S AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND THE
SFC LOW TRACKS TO OUR N AND W. THREAT OF PRECIP CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NGT
WITH W-NW FLOW BRINGING MIN TEMPS INTO THE U20S-U30S. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND NW FLOW
CREATING SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE HIGHER TRRN SATURDAY NGT INTO
LATE SUNDAY.

AT SAME TIME...RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE
EDGING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO.
DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS SWWD OF THE RIDGE...DRIER AIR MAY
FILTER IN...ENDING THREAT OF UPSLOPE PRECIP SUNDAY NGT INTO
MONDAY. TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER...IN THE L40S-
M50S...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S-U30S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT BRINGING SOME SHRA
TO KMSS...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION VCSH AT KBTV/KPBG AND
-SHRA AT KMSS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THRU MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...SWEEPING EWD THROUGH THE REGION...TRIGGERING
-SHRA/RA AT KMSS/KSLK BTWN 15Z-17Z...CPV BTWN 19Z-21Z...AND
KMPV/KRUT BTWN 20Z-22Z. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE AT TIME...PRODUCING
MVFR CONDITIONS. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE
WARMER MOIST AIR AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SW/W BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE KEEPING -SHRA AND LVL MVFR CIGS INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE W/NW DURING
THE EVENING HRS TUESDAY NGT.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM









000
FXUS61 KALY 220831
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATING A FEW MORE POSSIBLE SPRINKLES
OVER EXTREME NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WITH
GRADUALLY THICKENING CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
BREEZE HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP IN MOST CASES...STILL IN THE 50S AT
THE HOUR! SOME AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE 40S DUE TO A MORE MARINE AIRMASS.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONLY A FEW MORE DEGREES. IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY (OTHER THAN A STRAY SPRINKLE ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS). TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
AWAY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...45 TO AROUND 50 CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND EVEN POINTS NORTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...REACHING OUR WESTERN AREAS MIDDAY...AND
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE AIR HAS BEEN INCREDIBLY DRY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD
WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. FURTHER SOUTH
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS JUMP INTO THE 40S AND EVEN NEAR 50. THIS HIGHER
MOISTURE AIR WILL SHIPPED IN THIS MORNING...SENDING PWAT VALUES TO
NEAR AN INCH AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

AS ASCENT AND THE MOISTURE INCREASES...SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MIDDAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD EVEN BE A
SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED LINE OF "CONVECTIVE` SHOWERS. THE SHOWALTER INDEX
(WHICH MEASURES INSTABILITY BETWEEN THE H850 AND H500 LEVEL)
APPROACHES ZERO LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION OUTLINE IN GENERAL
THUNDER. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ADD "SLIGHT CHANCE" OF THUNDER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST TODAY. WILL WE
HAVE MORE MARINE INFLUENCE THAN YESTERDAY? THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR
NO SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES TO OUR SOUTH ARE ACTUALLY COOLER.
ONCE AGAIN...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY BE FOUND IN OUR
NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD HAVE HIGHS 65 TO 70...SO
DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE COLD
FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM MODELS
INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION IS
REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL DISCOUNT
THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT
BUT THE CPD/S ARE NOT TOO LOW TO KEEP THE CHC-SCT POPS IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  DRY SLOT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FROPA IS
FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANY RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE IS
PROGRESSIVE AND THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP THOSE POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT
CATEGORY.

THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
ACROSS NOAM WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR...BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND A MORE VIGOROUS
TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.  THE NET RESULT FOR OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A COOLER
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME BUT QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS.  THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A DRIER SOLUTION AS
OPPOSED TO THE GFS.  THE GGEM IS SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE SOLUTION AS WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TRENDS ARE FAVORING COOLER VALUES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THOSE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW 0C ONCE AGAIN.  IN
FACT...THE ECMWF DROPS BACK THOSE TEMPS TO AROUND -8C OVER NY WITH
THE GFS HOVERING AROUND 0C.  THE GGEM IS IN THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH
-4C.  THIS WILL KEEP VALLEY TEMPS MAINLY INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE
50S WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S WHERE SOME THE PRECIP COULD MIX WITH SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER...COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

MAIN AVIATION IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  UPSTREAM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN AROUND
MVFR CIGS WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION WITH THE SHOWERS.  IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

DUE TO A BREEZE AND HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY AREAS DID NOT FULLY RECOVER
OVERNIGHT AS RH VALUES WERE MOSTLY WELL BELOW 100 PERCENT.

MAINLY DRY EARLY...BUT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN AREA AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS COULD FALL A LITTLE SHORT OF THIS
THRESHOLD.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS TO TURN
RATHER WINDY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...LOOKS TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING
BELOW 30 PERCENT. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH 30-35 MPH BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE 50S
VALLEY LOCATIONS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

THAT BREEZE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TO 5 TO 15
MPH LATER OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS BREEZE ONCE AGAIN A FULL RECOVERY
MIGHT NOT HAPPEN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND
FREEZING OR A LITTLE LOWER.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH
25-30 MPH SO WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS. IF WE FAIL
TO REACH THE QUARTER INCH CRITERIA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...COORDINATION
MIGHT BE NEEDED WITH OUR STATE LIAISON PERSONNEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
LOCALLY HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS ON FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM










000
FXUS61 KBUF 220821
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
421 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...ACCOMPANIED WITH
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION...AND
THEN AS COLDER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT A
SECONDARY BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH SNOW TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EARLY MORNING DISPLAYS A CONSOLIDATING AND
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO CANADA. A
COLD FRONT FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD BACK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE NOW REACHING NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...AND A
SECOND SHORTWAVE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG DIVING INTO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH ACTIVITY NOW REACHING FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK.

FOR TODAY LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
WHILE SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM SHOW MANY
OF THESE SHOWERS ARE LIGHT...AND THESE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT INCREASE
IN INTENSITY AS THEY CONTINUE TO PRESS INTO A DRIER AIRMASS. EXPECT
RAINFALL TODAY TO AVERAGE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...AND UP TO TWO
TENTHS IN ANY HEAVIER ACTIVITY.

INSTABILITY REMAINS MINIMAL...THOUGH SOME SFC CAPE AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL REACH ACROSS THE ALLEGANY PLATEAU AND BRISTOL HILLS
TODAY AND WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER HERE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING DRY SLOT NOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS DRY SLOT WILL REACH WNY THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LIMITED SUNSHINE. AS UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVES DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A SECONDARY SURFACE
TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL BE PLENTIFUL. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING
LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT...BUT
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS...850 HPA TEMPS
DROPPING DOWN TO -3 TO -5C...A CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH AN UPSLOPE FLOW. GREATEST CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW WILL ALSO BE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A SLUSHY HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK.

TEMPERATURES ARE MILD THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT EXPECT THESE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A MOIST CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LIKELY TIED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. WE MAY ALSO SEE A BIT OF MOISTURE FLUX OFF OF
THE LAKES...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR TRUE LAKE
EFFECT PROCESSES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE REMAINING CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY CAUSE CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON...THE LAKES WILL BECOME A
STABILIZING INFLUENCE... RESULTING IN CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE
LAKES AND LAKESHORE AREAS FIRST. THEN...THE CLEARING WILL SPREAD
INLAND. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS BARELY REACHING 50. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LEAD TO A
DRY PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN TO START THE
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SUNNY
SKIES FOR THURSDAY.

THE COOL AIRMASS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
THE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY WITH BACK INTO THE MID 50S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH A BRIEF
WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WARM
OCCLUSION AT THE SURFACE WILL SWING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. THE RAIN SHOULD BE BRIEF AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION AND SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
NY. A WARMER AIRMASS WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS.

MODEL GUIDANCE QUICKLY DIVERGES WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
EVOLUTION OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
MOST ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A TURN TOWARDS MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF SWINGS A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL CUTOFF THROUGH ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
MONDAY...WITH A TROUGH DELIVERING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE CUTOFF LOW IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST TO KEEP OUR REGION MAINLY DRY.

THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND RETROGRADES THE CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...KEEPING IT OVER OR JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP MORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH THE COLDER AIR SOME OF THIS MAY BE IN
THE FORM OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MIX OF SNOW AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 06Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 6 TO 9 HOURS. A COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO THE WEST WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TO THE WEST...AND 15 TO 21Z
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE FOUND WITHIN THESE SHOWERS...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER.

A DRY SLOT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
BE BRIEF AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LOWER CIGS BACK TO IFR/MVFR THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW MIXING IN LATE ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE IN SPEED
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND VEER AROUND TO WEST AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
EARLY WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE INCREASING TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS THIS MORNING ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...AND WILL HOIST A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HERE...AND CONTINUE IT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ELSEWHERE SCA WILL REMAIN ON LAKE ONTARIO AS WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WAVES AREA EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT TODAY.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER...POSSIBLY TO NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS MAY NECESSITATE
A SCA FOR THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO NON-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
         AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBGM 220800
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
400 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF THUNDER AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING TO DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FRIDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
200 AM UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN AHEAD OF INCOMING
FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY MARKED BY SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM LAKE
HURON THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN-NORTHERN INDIANA. THE CONTINUED WARM
FEED OF AIR...AND LACK OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...HAS MOST READINGS
STILL IN THE 50S AT THIS HOUR. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GO DOWN MUCH
MORE OVERNIGHT.

BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT...NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS NOW DIGGING
ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST-NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THE WATER VAPOR
LOOP. AS THIS WAVE CATCHES UP TO THE FRONT LATER TODAY...IT WILL
PROVIDE A NICE SHOT OF ENERGY/PVA AND MAY EVEN EXHIBIT SOME
NEGATIVE TILTING. THE NAM MODEL FOR SEVERAL RUNS HAS SHOWN SOME
CAPE IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...BUT IT IS NOW BEING JOINED BY
THE HIGH RES MODELS...AND EVEN THE RELUCTANT GFS IS AT LEAST
HINTING AT MARGINAL INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE ABOVE...I HAVE ADDED
CHANCE OF THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG AND NORTH OF NY
THRUWAY CORRIDOR WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE OF A CHALLENGE. I
ALSO HONED IN ON SPECIFIC SHOWER TIMING BASED ON FAIRLY WELL
CLUSTERED FRONTAL POSITIONING. AS IT LOOKS NOW...TIMING OF FRONT
WOULD BE FINGER LAKES EARLY AFTERNOON...TOWANDA-BINGHAMTON-UTICA
AROUND 3PM...SCRANTON-DELHI AROUND 5PM...MONTICELLO 6PM. ALL
TOLD...WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FRONT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES STRUGGLING TO EVEN BRIEFLY REACH NEAR AN INCH...ONLY
EXPECTING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES ALSO TRICKY BECAUSE OF FRONTAL TIMING AND THICKENING
CLOUDS/DEVELOPING SHOWERS/EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. HIGHS OF MAINLY
60S WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES...MIDDAY FOR
CENTRAL ZONES...AND EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

UNTIL THE FRONT ITSELF...SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED AND BATTLING
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR...AND SO MUCH WILL BE
VIRGA. THEN WHEN THE FRONT AND SHOWERS-EMBEDDED THUNDER COME
THROUGH...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS EVEN
THOUGH SHEAR ITSELF IS NOMINAL...BECAUSE OF INVERTED-V LOOK TO THE
SOUNDINGS AND THUS COLD POOL PRODUCTION FROM EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

FRONTAL SHOWERS QUICKLY EXIT EAST EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION...SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY. MIXING IN OF WET SNOWFLAKES NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...BUT VAST MAJORITY WILL
NOT SEE IT AND THOSE THAT DO WILL NOT HAVE ANY ACCUMULATION. LOWS
TONIGHT GENERALLY MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED COOL AND SHOWERY WITH SLOWING STACKED LOW IN ERN NEW ENGLAND.
NW CAA FLOW WILL ADD SOME LAKE MOISTURE BUT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL NOT ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT. WED MORN SECONDARY
COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THE
REST OF THE DAY. LATE WED THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD END. WITH
CAA SFC MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE U40S AND L50S.

WED NGT WILL BE COLD WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS U20S TO A30.

THU WILL BE A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
L60S SRN VALLEYS. SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SFC HIGH DURING THE AFTN.

THU NGT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FRI AFTN. PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF WITH THE HIGH ONLY MOVG INTO ERN NY. TREND AGAIN
TO DELAY THE FRONT A FEW HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. AGAIN FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPES.
POSITIONING OF FRONTS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE TOO. BOTTOM LINE
UNSETTLED AND COOL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH THE IDEA THAT A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LITTLE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED AND NO THUNDER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING A MAINLY DRY SCENARIO FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT LOW CHC POPS
GOING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DESPITE SOME DOWNSTREAM DISAGREEMENT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME
TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
STILL VFR...BUT CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AND THICKENING AHEAD OF
INCOMING COLD FRONT. EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS
ALONG FRONT WILL MOVE WNW TO ENE FROM 16Z-22Z INCLUDING MVFR
RESTRICTIONS AND SOME THUNDER...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR SPECIFICS
OF TIMING AND THUNDER /CB NOT INCLUDED FOR KSYR-KRME AT THIS TIME
BECAUSE OF LOWER PROBABILITY/. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS...WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS...ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
STRATUS CIG. HOWEVER...IMMEDIATE FRONTAL SHOWER-THUNDER BAND WILL
LIKELY INCLUDE A PUSH OF 20-25 KT GUSTS AS INDICATED IN TAFS
WITHIN THE TEMPO GROUPS.

OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE NGT-WED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LINGERING MVFR CIGS ON
BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SAT... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
200 AM UPDATE...
DESPITE FAIRLY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...PUTTING A HOLD ON FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AFTER THE RECENT WARM DRY SPELL.

NEXT DAY TO WATCH WILL BE THURSDAY WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS AND RH
BELOW 30 PERCENT. QUESTION HERE WHETHER FUELS WILL DRY OUT IN
TIME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB/MSE/TAC
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...MDP/TAC







000
FXUS61 KBTV 220701
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
301 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TONIGHT ON
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 118 AM EDT TUESDAY...RADAR TRENDS BRINGING LIGHT RAIN OVER
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST. VERY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40F IN HIR TRRN....TO THE MID/UPPER 40S IN
VALLEY LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 421 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT WORKING INTO
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HRS...WITH SFC LOW TRACK
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTNOON...SFC LOW WILL
BE OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE FRONTAL
PRECIP. LEADING UP TO THE EVENING HRS...FRONTAL BAND WILL SHIFT
INTO EASTERN VT. MDL TIMING AND EXPECTED PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO HAVE DEVIATED VERY
LITTLE WHICH GIVES AREA 0.20-0.40" OF RAIN. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HRS IN N NY AND BY EARLY AFTNOON FOR
OTHER POINTS EAST. FORECASTED HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLD COVER AHEAD/DURING
FROPA. TIGHT GRADIENT WITH FROPA WILL BRING GUSTS POTENTIAL INTO
THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO NORTHERLY ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW. MAINLY
-RW IN VALLEY LOCALES WITH -RW TRANSITIONING TO -SW AT HIR ELEV
WITH 1-2" LOCALIZED POTENTIAL ACCUM. STILL LOOKING FOR 10-20 MPH
WINDS WITH SOME LOCALLY HIR GUSTS AND LOWS IN THE 30S FOR HIR TRRN
TO NEAR 40F IN THE MAIN VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE ENTIRE CWA UNDER NORTHERLY WIND REGIME W/ DECREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OVER PRECIP OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST...MAINLY OVER HIR TRRN. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND EXITING
LOW WILL KEEP TIGHT GRADIENT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS BUT LESSENING
GOING INTO EVENING HRS FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF -RW FOR VALLEY LOCALES WITH SCT -SW/-RW OVER HIR
TRRN. SNOW ACCUM AROUND AN INCH OR SO WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NE VT
CLOSEST TO EXITING LOW. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 40S TO MID 50S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S IN HIR TRRN TO THE LOW 30S
ELSEWHERE. LOW NUMBERS AIDED BY CAA AHEAD OF SFC RIDGE COMBINED W/
CLRING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN ON TAP FOR THE LONG
TERM AS THURSDAY NIGHT SEES A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY SHIFT EWD...MAKING WAY FOR A SFC LOW TO MOVE IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING FRIDAY TEMPS INTO THE 60S. MILD TEMPS
CONTINUE FRIDAY NGT IN THE M30S-M40S AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND THE
SFC LOW TRACKS TO OUR N AND W. THREAT OF PRECIP CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NGT
WITH W-NW FLOW BRINGING MIN TEMPS INTO THE U20S-U30S. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND NW FLOW
CREATING SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE HIGHER TRRN SATURDAY NGT INTO
LATE SUNDAY.

AT SAME TIME...RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE
EDGING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO.
DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS SWWD OF THE RIDGE...DRIER AIR MAY
FILTER IN...ENDING THREAT OF UPSLOPE PRECIP SUNDAY NGT INTO
MONDAY. TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER...IN THE L40S-
M50S...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S-U30S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT BRINGING SOME SHRA
TO KMSS...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION VCSH AT KBTV/KPBG AND
-SHRA AT KMSS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THRU MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...SWEEPING EWD THROUGH THE REGION...TRIGGERING
-SHRA/RA AT KMSS/KSLK BTWN 15Z-17Z...CPV BTWN 19Z-21Z...AND
KMPV/KRUT BTWN 20Z-22Z. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE AT TIME...PRODUCING
MVFR CONDITIONS. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE
WARMER MOIST AIR AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SW/W BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE KEEPING -SHRA AND LVL MVFR CIGS INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE W/NW DURING
THE EVENING HRS TUESDAY NGT.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM









000
FXUS61 KBGM 220624
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
224 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF THUNDER AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING TO DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FRIDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
200 AM UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN AHEAD OF INCOMING
FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY MARKED BY SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM LAKE
HURON THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN-NORTHERN INDIANA. THE CONTINUED WARM
FEED OF AIR...AND LACK OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...HAS MOST READINGS
STILL IN THE 50S AT THIS HOUR. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GO DOWN MUCH
MORE OVERNIGHT.

BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT...NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS NOW DIGGING
ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST-NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THE WATER VAPOR
LOOP. AS THIS WAVE CATCHES UP TO THE FRONT LATER TODAY...IT WILL
PROVIDE A NICE SHOT OF ENERGY/PVA AND MAY EVEN EXHIBIT SOME
NEGATIVE TILTING. THE NAM MODEL FOR SEVERAL RUNS HAS SHOWN SOME
CAPE IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...BUT IT IS NOW BEING JOINED BY
THE HIGH RES MODELS...AND EVEN THE RELUCTANT GFS IS AT LEAST
HINTING AT MARGINAL INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE ABOVE...I HAVE ADDED
CHANCE OF THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG AND NORTH OF NY
THRUWAY CORRIDOR WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE OF A CHALLENGE. I
ALSO HONED IN ON SPECIFIC SHOWER TIMING BASED ON FAIRLY WELL
CLUSTERED FRONTAL POSITIONING. AS IT LOOKS NOW...TIMING OF FRONT
WOULD BE FINGER LAKES EARLY AFTERNOON...TOWANDA-BINGHAMTON-UTICA
AROUND 3PM...SCRANTON-DELHI AROUND 5PM...MONTICELLO 6PM. ALL
TOLD...WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FRONT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES STRUGGLING TO EVEN BRIEFLY REACH NEAR AN INCH...ONLY
EXPECTING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES ALSO TRICKY BECAUSE OF FRONTAL TIMING AND THICKENING
CLOUDS/DEVELOPING SHOWERS/EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. HIGHS OF MAINLY
60S WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES...MIDDAY FOR
CENTRAL ZONES...AND EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

UNTIL THE FRONT ITSELF...SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED AND BATTLING
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR...AND SO MUCH WILL BE
VIRGA. THEN WHEN THE FRONT AND SHOWERS-EMBEDDED THUNDER COME
THROUGH...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS EVEN
THOUGH SHEAR ITSELF IS NOMINAL...BECAUSE OF INVERTED-V LOOK TO THE
SOUNDINGS AND THUS COLD POOL PRODUCTION FROM EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

FRONTAL SHOWERS QUICKLY EXIT EAST EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION...SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY. MIXING IN OF WET SNOWFLAKES NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...BUT VAST MAJORITY WILL
NOT SEE IT AND THOSE THAT DO WILL NOT HAVE ANY ACCUMULATION. LOWS
TONIGHT GENERALLY MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GUSTS
ON THE ORDER OF 20-30KTS BY WED MRNG. SHOWERS WL LINGER INTO WED
AFTN BFR SYSTEM DEPARTS.

HIPRES WL ASSURE QUIET WX THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH THE IDEA THAT A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LITTLE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED AND NO THUNDER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING A MAINLY DRY SCENARIO FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT LOW CHC POPS
GOING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DESPITE SOME DOWNSTREAM DISAGREEMENT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME
TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
STILL VFR...BUT CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AND THICKENING AHEAD OF
INCOMING COLD FRONT. EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS
ALONG FRONT WILL MOVE WNW TO ENE FROM 16Z-22Z INCLUDING MVFR
RESTRICTIONS AND SOME THUNDER...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR SPECIFICS
OF TIMING AND THUNDER /CB NOT INCLUDED FOR KSYR-KRME AT THIS TIME
BECAUSE OF LOWER PROBABILITY/. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS...WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS...ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
STRATUS CIG. HOWEVER...IMMEDIATE FRONTAL SHOWER-THUNDER BAND WILL
LIKELY INCLUDE A PUSH OF 20-25 KT GUSTS AS INDICATED IN TAFS WITHIN
THE TEMPO GROUPS.

OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE NGT-WED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LINGERING MVFR CIGS ON
BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SAT... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
200 AM UPDATE...
DESPITE FAIRLY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...PUTTING A HOLD ON FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AFTER THE RECENT WARM DRY SPELL.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...JAB/MSE
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...MDP







000
FXUS61 KOKX 220619
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
219 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE BASED ON INITIAL CONDITIONS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT...WITH SKIES GENERALLY
PTCLDY. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...AND HAVE MAINTAINED A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/PATCHY FOG ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND AROUND DAYBREAK. RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD ALSO LEAD TO
SOME SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 40S MOST PLACES...
PERHAPS UPPER 30S ACROSS INTERIOR SE CT AND IN THE LONG ISLAND
PINE BARRENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. WITH A
CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY.

THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES AND A DISTRIBUTION SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF ECS/MAV/MET
GUIDANCE WITH AGAIN COOLER READINGS AT THE COAST WITH MORE ONSHORE
FLOW.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED TO IT DEEPENS ABOUT
3-5 MB AS CONVEYED BY DIFFERENT MODELS. THIS WILL COME FROM A
STRENGTHENING JET STREAK...INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
ALSO...INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING...MAINLY OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY INTO NYC. MUCAPE UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG IS SHOWN.

THEREFORE...EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WESTERN AREAS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY INTO NYC.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...SWITCHING FLOW FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. SHOWERS
WILL BE WITHIN THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AND THEN
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE. LOWS WERE A BLEND OF
MET/MAV/NAM12 TO CONVEY TEMPS STAYING UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE CWA
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CLEARING THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
IT. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ENERGY FOR AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE BUILDING
SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SURFACE SYSTEMS...WEDNESDAY IS
SHAPING UP TO BE WINDY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH. A
FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SLOW TO CHANGE. THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST
BECOMES A CUT-OFF LOW SLOWING DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN.
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WEAKEN A BIT BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY.
GUSTS WILL COME BACK UP ON THURSDAY ALTHOUGH STRONGEST GUSTS MAY BE
MORE ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. WINDS FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO ALLOW A BRIEF SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD
OVERHEAD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT DID NOT GO MUCH HIGHER THAN 30 POP WITH
DIFFERENCES APPARENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS RANGE. THESE
DIFFERENCES ONLY GET LARGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS
TO DEEPEN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CURRENTLY NOT
CARRYING ANY POPS SUNDAY...BUT IF THE CUT-OFF IS CLOSE ENOUGH...SOME
DAYTIME HEATING INSTABILITY SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE COLD
POCKET ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CUT-OFF
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

FOR TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO
BE THE WARMEST DAYS IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S...COOLEST READINGS NEAR THE COAST. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THEN RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COLDER AIR
BEING USHERED IN BEHIND THE LOW TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING.

MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG/STRATUS EARLY TUE AM.
HIGHEST CHANCES ARE AT TERMINALS E OF NYC. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS AT
KISP/KBDR/KGON WHERE HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE. AREAS OF
MVFR CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUE AFTN/EVE...BUT
NOT CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM. TIMING OF -SHRA IN CURRENT
TAFS MAY BE +/- 1-3 HOURS.

LOW CHANCE OF TSTM LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING FOR THE CITY...NJ...AND
HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE OF IT AFFECTING KEWR/KTEB ARE
UNCERTAIN. KLGA/KHPN HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE...WITH
KJFK/KBDR/KGON MOST LIKELY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...-SHRA WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS ENDING IN THE EVE.
COLD FROPA WITH NW-N WINDS G20-25KT IN ITS WAKE.
.WED-THU NIGHT...VFR. NW-N WIND G25-30KT.
.FRI-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS FRI AFTN - SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS MAINLY
STAYING UNDER 10 KT WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHER WINDS...10-15
KT GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT FOR WESTERN OCEAN WEST OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET. WAVEWATCH IS LIKELY OVERDOING SEAS...SO DO NOT THINK SCA
CONDS WILL OCCUR IN THE PRE-FRONTAL S-SW FLOW. GUSTS SHOULD BECOME
MORE FREQUENT LATER TUE NIGHT AFTER COLD FROPA...WITH SCA CONDS
POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN AS SEAS COULD REACH 5 FT.

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL RISE INTO SCA LEVELS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOWERING RH VALUES TO NEAR 30 PERCENT AND STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE CONCERNS CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS EVEN LOWER
RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH
CONTINUED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY IS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM WED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CT RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KBUF 220600
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
200 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
COOLER AIR WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A WEAK SHORT WV LOCATED OVER IL/IN WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT NEWD
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A BROAD SWATH OF MAINLY
LT/MOD SHRA ORIENTED SW TO NE ACROSS MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN IL/IN.
SCT LT RETURNS CAN BE FOUND OVER WNY...WHICH IS PRIMARILY FALLING
AS VIRGA W/SUCH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS. AS
THE SHORT WV OVER IL/IN CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD EXPECT A STEADY
STREAM OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES
OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER ONTARIO CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/SREF/GFS) IS FAIRLY CLOSE IN TERMS OF
TIMING...BUT THE CONSENSUS IS AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED WITH THE
UPPER TROF...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT BUT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS...FIRST ENTERING
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN SWEEPING ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY AROUND NOON BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE CWA LATE
AFTERNOON. BOTH SURFACE BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY APPEAR
LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT...WHICH STILL SUGGESTS THERE WILL PROBABLY
NOT BE ANY THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ABOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FROM
THIS SYSTEM.

CLOUDS AND INCREASING WINDS SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
VERY LITTLE ON TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP TUESDAY
EVENING FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS. OVERNIGHT THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OVER NEW ENGLAND...WITH A NOTABLE
SECONDARY VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTHERN
NY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WED. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME INCREASE IN LARGE
SCALE ASCENT...AND ALSO BRING WITH IT AN AREA OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE. THIS WILL PRODUCE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MOIST CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR ENHANCEMENT FROM UPSLOPE
PROCESSES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTHERN/WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING STEADILY FALLING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY EXPECT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S ACROSS THE LOW ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO WET SNOW LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
A FEW WET FLAKES MAY ALSO MIX IN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IF ENOUGH
PRECIP REMAINS BY THE TIME TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THERMAL PROFILES AND HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
NAM AND CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM EVEN POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH
UPSLOPE TO PRODUCE SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON THE HILLS WITH
UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT 1200FT.

ON WEDNESDAY DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND ANY REMAINING SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...BRINGING AN END TO
THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST. COLD AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAIN...SO CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS CLEARING WILL
LIKELY START AT LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE LAKES AS LAKE SHADOWS
DEVELOP...WITH CLEARING LAST ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO UPSLOPE
FLOW. 850MB TEMPS REMAIN AROUND -5C ALL DAY...WHICH WILL ONLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 40S AT
BEST ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH
RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DIMINISHING WINDS FROM WEST TO
EAST. THE COOL AIRMASS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD
NIGHT BY LATE APRIL STANDARDS...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOW TO MID 20S IN THE COOLER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER SOME ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE MID 50S IN MANY AREAS. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH JUST
SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH A BRIEF
WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND WARM OCCLUSION AT THE SURFACE WILL SWING QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. THE RAIN SHOULD BE
BRIEF AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING
ACROSS WESTERN NY. A WARMER AIRMASS WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE
INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW TO MID
60S FOR HIGHS.

MODEL GUIDANCE QUICKLY DIVERGES WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
EVOLUTION OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
MOST ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A TURN TOWARDS MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF SWINGS A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL CUTOFF THROUGH ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
MONDAY...WITH A TROUGH DELIVERING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE CUTOFF LOW IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST TO KEEP OUR REGION MAINLY DRY.

THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND RETROGRADES THE CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...KEEPING IT OVER OR JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP MORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH THE COLDER AIR SOME OF THIS MAY BE IN
THE FORM OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MIX OF SNOW AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 06Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 6 TO 9 HOURS. A COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO THE WEST WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TO THE WEST...AND 15 TO 21Z
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE FOUND WITHIN THESE SHOWERS...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER.

A DRY SLOT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
BE BRIEF AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LOWER CIGS BACK TO IFR/MVFR THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW MIXING IN LATE ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE IN SPEED
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND VEER AROUND TO WEST AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
EARLY WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE UNTIL WINDS INCREASE WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
ON LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES LATER THURSDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...AR








000
FXUS61 KBTV 220549
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
149 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TONIGHT ON
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 118 AM EDT TUESDAY...RADAR TRENDS BRINGING LIGHT RAIN OVER
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST. VERY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40F IN HIR TRRN....TO THE MID/UPPER 40S IN
VALLEY LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 421 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT WORKING INTO
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HRS...WITH SFC LOW TRACK
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTNOON...SFC LOW WILL
BE OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE FRONTAL
PRECIP. LEADING UP TO THE EVENING HRS...FRONTAL BAND WILL SHIFT
INTO EASTERN VT. MDL TIMING AND EXPECTED PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO HAVE DEVIATED VERY
LITTLE WHICH GIVES AREA 0.20-0.40" OF RAIN. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HRS IN N NY AND BY EARLY AFTNOON FOR
OTHER POINTS EAST. FORECASTED HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLD COVER AHEAD/DURING
FROPA. TIGHT GRADIENT WITH FROPA WILL BRING GUSTS POTENTIAL INTO
THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO NORTHERLY ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW. MAINLY
-RW IN VALLEY LOCALES WITH -RW TRANSITIONING TO -SW AT HIR ELEV
WITH 1-2" LOCALIZED POTENTIAL ACCUM. STILL LOOKING FOR 10-20 MPH
WINDS WITH SOME LOCALLY HIR GUSTS AND LOWS IN THE 30S FOR HIR TRRN
TO NEAR 40F IN THE MAIN VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE ENTIRE CWA UNDER NORTHERLY WIND REGIME W/ DECREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OVER PRECIP OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST...MAINLY OVER HIR TRRN. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND EXITING
LOW WILL KEEP TIGHT GRADIENT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS BUT LESSENING
GOING INTO EVENING HRS FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF -RW FOR VALLEY LOCALES WITH SCT -SW/-RW OVER HIR
TRRN. SNOW ACCUM AROUND AN INCH OR SO WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NE VT
CLOSEST TO EXITING LOW. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 40S TO MID 50S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S IN HIR TRRN TO THE LOW 30S
ELSEWHERE. LOW NUMBERS AIDED BY CAA AHEAD OF SFC RIDGE COMBINED W/
CLRING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ANTICIPATED...WITH CHANGEABLE WX EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...TYPICAL OF
SPRINGTIME ACRS THE NE CONUS. DEEP CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL
CIRCULATION WL BE LIFTING EAST OF OUR CWA ON THURSDAY...WITH BRISK
NW WINDS. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN THE
MORNING...MAY PRODUCE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY ACRS THE MTNS. SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FOR THURS AFTN INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS START BTWN -4C AND
-6C AT 12Z THURS...BUT WARM BTWN +2C AND +4C BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS
PROFILE WL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS WITH HIGHS IN
THE U30S TO L40S MTNS TO U40S TO M50S VALLEYS...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS ANTICIPATED BY FRIDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. LATEST 12Z GFS CONTS TO SUPPORT A
DEVELOPING DEEP CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION ACRS THE NE
CONUS...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WX AND COOL CONDITIONS. THIS
SUPPORT WOULD SUPPORT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SAT
THRU NEXT MONDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40/L50S
VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST PATTERN CONTINUING ACRS THE NE CONUS.
THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT A CHC OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMER/DRIER WX BY MONDAY.
EITHER SOLUTION SUPPORTS BLW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...WITH A CHC
OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND...ITS JUST A QUESTION OF THE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE TRRN DRIVEN PRECIP CHCS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT BRINGING SOME SHRA
TO KMSS...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION VCSH AT KBTV/KPBG AND
-SHRA AT KMSS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THRU MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...SWEEPING EWD THROUGH THE REGION...TRIGGERING
-SHRA/RA AT KMSS/KSLK BTWN 15Z-17Z...CPV BTWN 19Z-21Z...AND
KMPV/KRUT BTWN 20Z-22Z. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE AT TIME...PRODUCING
MVFR CONDITIONS. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE
WARMER MOIST AIR AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SW/W BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE KEEPING -SHRA AND LVL MVFR CIGS INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE W/NW DURING
THE EVENING HRS TUESDAY NGT.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...KGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 220536
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...FOR THIS UPDATE NEEDED TO RAISE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE SEVERAL DEGREES AS TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY NOT
FALLEN MUCH AT ALL. THIS WAS DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY BREEZE...DESPITE DEWPOINTS REMAINDER VERY LOW.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS (OR SPRINKLES) HAVE SKIMMED OUR NORTHERN AREAS
DUE TO A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...THESE WERE MOVING
AWAY...AND THERE WERE NO MORE IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM.

TRIMMED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCREDIBLY LOW
DEWPOINTS...AND THE FACT THAT LATEST RUC INDICATED NO SHOWERS
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL WELL AFTER DAYBREAK.

SO FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
FALL...HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...LOCALLY AROUND 50 AT ALBANY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO
INCREASE TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL IN ALL AREAS DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN HIGH INTO THE EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF KEEPS SCT SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WITH TEMPS COOLING HAVE ALSO FORECAST THE RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES...WITH
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. WITH COOL AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO
WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...IT WILL HELP
PRODUCE A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE FORECAST
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY IN THE HWOALY PRODUCT IN CASE THE
WINDS BECOME STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 40S
TO THE 50S.

HIGHS PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SOME WEAK WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS LATER THURSDAY AND WITH DECENT SUNSHINE...HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AROUND 50
IN NORTHERN AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. STILL...WITH SOME WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE...HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THEN...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGH AMPLITUDE AND BLOCKY...WITH A
GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR AN UPPER LOW TO SPIN AROUND JUST OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S....WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
FORMING A NEW UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE DETAILS OF THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ITS PROXIMITY WILL DETERMINE WHETHER
WE HAVE DECENT COVERAGE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE.

SINCE THERE IS SUCH A SPREAD...JUST SUGGESTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAYS AND PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH
DAY/AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH...AT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...THE MIXED CLOUD COVER
AND INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER ENERGY COULD BE CENTERED FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE NEXT WEEKEND SO THAT WE WOULD HAVE MORE SUN...LESS COVERAGE
OF RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL JUST HAVE TO BE
WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER...COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

MAIN AVIATION IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  UPSTREAM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN AROUND
MVFR CIGS WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION WITH THE SHOWERS.  IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY OVERNT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

RH VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT TONIGHT.
THE WIND TONIGHT WILL SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...AND AROUND 55 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LEVEL OF THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK HAS DROPPED TO BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM













000
FXUS61 KALY 220525
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...FOR THIS UPDATE NEEDED TO RAISE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE SEVERAL DEGREES AS TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY NOT
FALLEN MUCH AT ALL. THIS WAS DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY BREEZE...DESPITE DEWPOINTS REMAINDER VERY LOW.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS (OR SPRINKLES) HAVE SKIMMED OUR NORTHERN AREAS
DUE TO A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...THESE WERE MOVING
AWAY...AND THERE WERE NO MORE IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM.

TRIMMED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCREDIBLY LOW
DEWPOINTS...AND THE FACT THAT LATEST RUC INDICATED NO SHOWERS
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL WELL AFTER DAYBREAK.

SO FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
FALL...HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...LOCALLY AROUND 50 AT ALBANY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO
INCREASE TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL IN ALL AREAS DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN HIGH INTO THE EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF KEEPS SCT SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WITH TEMPS COOLING HAVE ALSO FORECAST THE RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES...WITH
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. WITH COOL AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO
WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...IT WILL HELP
PRODUCE A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE FORECAST
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY IN THE HWOALY PRODUCT IN CASE THE
WINDS BECOME STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 40S
TO THE 50S.

HIGHS PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SOME WEAK WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS LATER THURSDAY AND WITH DECENT SUNSHINE...HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AROUND 50
IN NORTHERN AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. STILL...WITH SOME WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE...HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THEN...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGH AMPLITUDE AND BLOCKY...WITH A
GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR AN UPPER LOW TO SPIN AROUND JUST OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S....WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
FORMING A NEW UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE DETAILS OF THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ITS PROXIMITY WILL DETERMINE WHETHER
WE HAVE DECENT COVERAGE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE.

SINCE THERE IS SUCH A SPREAD...JUST SUGGESTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAYS AND PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH
DAY/AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH...AT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...THE MIXED CLOUD COVER
AND INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER ENERGY COULD BE CENTERED FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE NEXT WEEKEND SO THAT WE WOULD HAVE MORE SUN...LESS COVERAGE
OF RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL JUST HAVE TO BE
WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ONLY SITE
WHERE VCSH WILL BE MENTIONED BEFORE 18Z IS AT KGFL...WHERE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD DEVELOP. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10
KT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

RH VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT TONIGHT.
THE WIND TONIGHT WILL SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...AND AROUND 55 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LEVEL OF THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK HAS DROPPED TO BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM










000
FXUS61 KBTV 220519
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
119 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TONIGHT ON
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 118 AM EDT TUESDAY...RADARA TRENDS BRINGING LIGHT RAIN OVER
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST. VERY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40F IN HIR TRRN....TO THE MID/UPPER 40S IN
VALLEY LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 421 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT WORKING INTO
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HRS...WITH SFC LOW TRACK
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTNOON...SFC LOW WILL
BE OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE FRONTAL
PRECIP. LEADING UP TO THE EVENING HRS...FRONTAL BAND WILL SHIFT
INTO EASTERN VT. MDL TIMING AND EXPECTED PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO HAVE DEVIATED VERY
LITTLE WHICH GIVES AREA 0.20-0.40" OF RAIN. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HRS IN N NY AND BY EARLY AFTNOON FOR
OTHER POINTS EAST. FORECASTED HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLD COVER AHEAD/DURING
FROPA. TIGHT GRADIENT WITH FROPA WILL BRING GUSTS POTENTIAL INTO
THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TRANSIITON FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO NORTHERLY ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW. MAINLY
-RW IN VALLEY LOCALES WITH -RW TRANSITIONING TO -SW AT HIR ELEV
WITH 1-2" LOCALIZED POTENTIAL ACCUM. STILL LOOKING FOR 10-20 MPH
WINDS WITH SOME LOCALLY HIR GUSTS AND LOWS IN THE 30S FOR HIR TRRN
TO NEAR 40F IN THE MAIN VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE ENTIRE CWA UNDER NORTHERLY WIND REGIME W/ DECREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OVER PRECIP OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST...MAINLY OVER HIR TRRN. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND EXITING
LOW WILL KEEP TIGHT GRADIENT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS BUT LESSENING
GOING INTO EVENING HRS FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF -RW FOR VALLEY LOCALES WITH SCT -SW/-RW OVER HIR
TRRN. SNOW ACCUM AROUND AN INCH OR SO WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NE VT
CLOSEST TO EXITING LOW. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 40S TO MID 50S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S IN HIR TRRN TO THE LOW 30S
ELSEWHERE. LOW NUMBERS AIDED BY CAA AHEAD OF SFC RIDGE COMBINED W/
CLRING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ANTICIPATED...WITH CHANGEABLE WX EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...TYPICAL OF
SPRINGTIME ACRS THE NE CONUS. DEEP CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL
CIRCULATION WL BE LIFTING EAST OF OUR CWA ON THURSDAY...WITH BRISK
NW WINDS. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN THE
MORNING...MAY PRODUCE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY ACRS THE MTNS. SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FOR THURS AFTN INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS START BTWN -4C AND
-6C AT 12Z THURS...BUT WARM BTWN +2C AND +4C BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS
PROFILE WL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS WITH HIGHS IN
THE U30S TO L40S MTNS TO U40S TO M50S VALLEYS...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS ANTICIPATED BY FRIDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. LATEST 12Z GFS CONTS TO SUPPORT A
DEVELOPING DEEP CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION ACRS THE NE
CONUS...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WX AND COOL CONDITIONS. THIS
SUPPORT WOULD SUPPORT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SAT
THRU NEXT MONDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40/L50S
VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST PATTERN CONTINUING ACRS THE NE CONUS.
THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT A CHC OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMER/DRIER WX BY MONDAY.
EITHER SOLUTION SUPPORTS BLW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...WITH A CHC
OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND...ITS JUST A QUESTION OF THE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE TRRN DRIVEN PRECIP CHCS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
TAF SITES THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION VCSH AT BTV/PBG
FOR THIS POTENTIAL WITH PREVAILING -RA AT MSS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THRU 12Z TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT BUT INCREASING AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW WITH GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS LIKELY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES KMSS BY 15Z
TUESDAY...WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR VISIBILTY. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH DAY BRINGING WITH IT A LINE OF MODERATE RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS. CANT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER AND +RA RIGHT ALONG THE
LINE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILTY
AND CEILINGS AS THE FRONT PASSES.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAYY THROUGH FRIDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL
PREVAIL...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE OF PRECIP. IN ADDITION...A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WL DEVELOP BY 03Z WEDS. COOLER AND
UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AT SLK/MPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/NF








000
FXUS61 KOKX 220313
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1113 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT...WITH SKIES
GOING FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO PTCLDY. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...AND HAVE
ADDED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/PATCHY FOG ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LONG ISLAND WITH 01Z NARRE SIGNALING SOME POTENTIAL THERE.
RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND
FOG ELSEWHERE. ... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 40S MOST PLACES...
PERHAPS UPPER 30S ACROSS INTERIOR SE CT AND IN THE LONG ISLAND
PINE BARRENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. WITH A
CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY.

THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES AND A DISTRIBUTION SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF ECS/MAV/MET
GUIDANCE WITH AGAIN COOLER READINGS AT THE COAST WITH MORE ONSHORE
FLOW.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED TO IT DEEPENS ABOUT
3-5 MB AS CONVEYED BY DIFFERENT MODELS. THIS WILL COME FROM A
STRENGTHENING JET STREAK...INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
ALSO...INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING...MAINLY OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY INTO NYC. MUCAPE UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG IS SHOWN.

THEREFORE...EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WESTERN AREAS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY INTO NYC.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...SWITCHING FLOW FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. SHOWERS
WILL BE WITHIN THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AND THEN
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE. LOWS WERE A BLEND OF
MET/MAV/NAM12 TO CONVEY TEMPS STAYING UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE CWA
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CLEARING THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
IT. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ENERGY FOR AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE BUILDING
SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SURFACE SYSTEMS...WEDNESDAY IS
SHAPING UP TO BE WINDY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH. A
FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SLOW TO CHANGE. THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST
BECOMES A CUT-OFF LOW SLOWING DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN.
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WEAKEN A BIT BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY.
GUSTS WILL COME BACK UP ON THURSDAY ALTHOUGH STRONGEST GUSTS MAY BE
MORE ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. WINDS FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO ALLOW A BRIEF SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD
OVERHEAD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT DID NOT GO MUCH HIGHER THAN 30 POP WITH
DIFFERENCES APPARENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS RANGE. THESE
DIFFERENCES ONLY GET LARGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS
TO DEEPEN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CURRENTLY NOT
CARRYING ANY POPS SUNDAY...BUT IF THE CUT-OFF IS CLOSE ENOUGH...SOME
DAYTIME HEATING INSTABILITY SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE COLD
POCKET ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CUT-OFF
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

FOR TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO
BE THE WARMEST DAYS IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S...COOLEST READINGS NEAR THE COAST. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THEN RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COLDER AIR
BEING USHERED IN BEHIND THE LOW TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING.

MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT.
HIGHEST CHANCES ARE AT TERMINALS E OF NYC. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS
AT KISP/KBDR/KGON WHERE HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE. AREAS
OF MVFR CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUE AFTN/EVE...BUT
NOT CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM. TIMING OF -SHRA IN CURRENT
TAFS MAY BE +/- 1-3 HOURS.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...-SHRA WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS ENDING IN THE EVE.
COLD FROPA WITH NW-N WINDS G20-25KT IN ITS WAKE.
.WED-THU NIGHT...VFR. NW-N WIND G25-30KT.
.FRI-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS FRI AFTN - SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS MAINLY
STAYING UNDER 10 KT WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHER WINDS...10-15
KT GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT FOR WESTERN OCEAN WEST OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET. WAVEWATCH IS LIKELY OVERDOING SEAS...SO DO NOT THINK SCA
CONDS WILL OCCUR IN THE PRE-FRONTAL S-SW FLOW. GUSTS SHOULD BECOME
MORE FREQUENT LATER TUE NIGHT AFTER COLD FROPA...WITH SCA CONDS
POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN AS SEAS COULD REACH 5 FT.

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL RISE INTO SCA LEVELS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOWERING RH VALUES TO NEAR 30 PERCENT AND STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE CONCERNS CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS EVEN LOWER
RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH
CONTINUED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY IS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM WED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CT RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KBUF 220250
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1050 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
COOLER AIR WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK SHORT WV LOCATED OVER IL/IN WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT NEWD
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A BROAD SWATH OF MAINLY
LT/MOD SHRA ORIENTED SW TO NE ACROSS MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN IL/IN.
SCT LT RETURNS CAN BE FOUND OVER WNY...WHICH IS PRIMARILY FALLING
AS VIRGA W/SUCH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS. AS
THE SHORT WV OVER IL/IN CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD EXPECT A STEADY
STREAM OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES
OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER ONTARIO CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/SREF/GFS) IS FAIRLY CLOSE IN TERMS OF
TIMING...BUT THE CONSENSUS IS AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED WITH THE
UPPER TROF...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT BUT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS...FIRST ENTERING
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN SWEEPING ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY AROUND NOON BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE CWA LATE
AFTERNOON. BOTH SURFACE BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY APPEAR
LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT...WHICH STILL SUGGESTS THERE WILL PROBABLY
NOT BE ANY THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ABOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FROM
THIS SYSTEM.

CLOUDS AND INCREASING WINDS SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
VERY LITTLE ON TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP TUESDAY
EVENING FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS. OVERNIGHT THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OVER NEW ENGLAND...WITH A NOTABLE
SECONDARY VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTHERN
NY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WED. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME INCREASE IN LARGE
SCALE ASCENT...AND ALSO BRING WITH IT AN AREA OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE. THIS WILL PRODUCE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MOIST CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR ENHANCEMENT FROM UPSLOPE
PROCESSES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTHERN/WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING STEADILY FALLING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY EXPECT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S ACROSS THE LOW ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO WET SNOW LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
A FEW WET FLAKES MAY ALSO MIX IN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IF ENOUGH
PRECIP REMAINS BY THE TIME TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THERMAL PROFILES AND HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
NAM AND CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM EVEN POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH
UPSLOPE TO PRODUCE SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON THE HILLS WITH
UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT 1200FT.

ON WEDNESDAY DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND ANY REMAINING SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...BRINGING AN END TO
THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST. COLD AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAIN...SO CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS CLEARING WILL
LIKELY START AT LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE LAKES AS LAKE SHADOWS
DEVELOP...WITH CLEARING LAST ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO UPSLOPE
FLOW. 850MB TEMPS REMAIN AROUND -5C ALL DAY...WHICH WILL ONLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 40S AT
BEST ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH
RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DIMINISHING WINDS FROM WEST TO
EAST. THE COOL AIRMASS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD
NIGHT BY LATE APRIL STANDARDS...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOW TO MID 20S IN THE COOLER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER SOME ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE MID 50S IN MANY AREAS. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH JUST
SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH A BRIEF
WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND WARM OCCLUSION AT THE SURFACE WILL SWING QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. THE RAIN SHOULD BE
BRIEF AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING
ACROSS WESTERN NY. A WARMER AIRMASS WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE
INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW TO MID
60S FOR HIGHS.

MODEL GUIDANCE QUICKLY DIVERGES WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
EVOLUTION OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
MOST ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A TURN TOWARDS MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF SWINGS A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL CUTOFF THROUGH ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
MONDAY...WITH A TROUGH DELIVERING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE CUTOFF LOW IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST TO KEEP OUR REGION MAINLY DRY.

THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND RETROGRADES THE CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...KEEPING IT OVER OR JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP MORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH THE COLDER AIR SOME OF THIS MAY BE IN
THE FORM OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MIX OF SNOW AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK SHORT WV LOCATED OVER IL/IN WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT NEWD
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SCT LT RETURNS WHICH IS PRIMARILY
FALLING AS VIRGA W/SUCH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS.
EXPECT CONTINUAL VFR W/MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL LOWER CIGS
AND POSSIBLY VSBY TOWARD DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...WITH MOST SITES
LOWERING TO MVFR FOR 3 TO 6 HOURS. A PERIOD OF IFR IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS AT JHW. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE SOME TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT OF THE FRONT...WITH A
MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS LINGERING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE UNTIL WINDS INCREASE WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
ON LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES LATER THURSDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
         FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR









000
FXUS61 KBTV 220217
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1017 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TONIGHT ON
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1016 PM EDT MONDAY...PRVS CHGS TO FCST APPEAR TO BE ON THE
RIGHT TREND THUS NO CHGS NEEDED THIS PKG.

700 PM EDT DISCUSSION...RDR TRENDS AND FINER RESOLUTION MDLS SHOWING SCT -SHRA
ACTVTY WILL TRAVERSE PORTIONS OF CNDN BDR CTYS IN NRN NY AND TO
SOME EXTENT IN VT AS WELL OVERNGT. THEREFORE... HAVE MADE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR ERLR/HIER POPS IN NY AND HAVE RAISED MIN T FCSTS
AS WELL.


421 PM EDT DISCUSSION...GREAT DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DESPITE
LINGERING CLD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. TEMPS
THIS AFTNOON RANGING IN THE 60S UP THRU THE LOW 70S...ALL RELATED
TO CLD CONDITIONS. SCT -RW ACROSS THE N NY ZONES ATTM...BUT WITH
AREA BEING SO DRY WITH RH READINGS IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE...SPOTS
JUST SEEING A FEW SPRINKLES WITH TRACE ACCUM AT BEST. THESE SHOULD
PUSH THRU/DRY UP OVER NEXT COUPLE HRS ALLOWING FOR MINOR REPRIEVE
BFR MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES. STAYING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
ARRIVAL OF MAIN AREA OF RAIN WHICH BEGINS AROUND 00Z TUESDAY. WITH
AIRMASS ALREADY DRY...EXPECTING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...WITH QPF UP TO 0.10" AT BEST. HIGHEST AMTS WILL BE IN
THE ST LAW VALLEY AND CLOSE TO 12Z TUESDAY WHEN SFC LOW
APPROACHES. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40F
IN HIR TRRN....TO THE MID/UPPER 40S IN VALLEY LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 421 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT WORKING INTO
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HRS...WITH SFC LOW TRACK
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTNOON...SFC LOW WILL
BE OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE FRONTAL
PRECIP. LEADING UP TO THE EVENING HRS...FRONTAL BAND WILL SHIFT
INTO EASTERN VT. MDL TIMING AND EXPECTED PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO HAVE DEVIATED VERY
LITTLE WHICH GIVES AREA 0.20-0.40" OF RAIN. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HRS IN N NY AND BY EARLY AFTNOON FOR
OTHER POINTS EAST. FORECASTED HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLD COVER AHEAD/DURING
FROPA. TIGHT GRADIENT WITH FROPA WILL BRING GUSTS POTENTIAL INTO
THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TRANSIITON FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO NORTHERLY ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW. MAINLY
-RW IN VALLEY LOCALES WITH -RW TRANSITIONING TO -SW AT HIR ELEV
WITH 1-2" LOCALIZED POTENTIAL ACCUM. STILL LOOKING FOR 10-20 MPH
WINDS WITH SOME LOCALLY HIR GUSTS AND LOWS IN THE 30S FOR HIR TRRN
TO NEAR 40F IN THE MAIN VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE ENTIRE CWA UNDER NORTHERLY WIND REGIME W/ DECREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OVER PRECIP OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST...MAINLY OVER HIR TRRN. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND EXITING
LOW WILL KEEP TIGHT GRADIENT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS BUT LESSENING
GOING INTO EVENING HRS FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF -RW FOR VALLEY LOCALES WITH SCT -SW/-RW OVER HIR
TRRN. SNOW ACCUM AROUND AN INCH OR SO WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NE VT
CLOSEST TO EXITING LOW. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 40S TO MID 50S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S IN HIR TRRN TO THE LOW 30S
ELSEWHERE. LOW NUMBERS AIDED BY CAA AHEAD OF SFC RIDGE COMBINED W/
CLRING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ANTICIPATED...WITH CHANGEABLE WX EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...TYPICAL OF
SPRINGTIME ACRS THE NE CONUS. DEEP CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL
CIRCULATION WL BE LIFTING EAST OF OUR CWA ON THURSDAY...WITH BRISK
NW WINDS. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN THE
MORNING...MAY PRODUCE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY ACRS THE MTNS. SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FOR THURS AFTN INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS START BTWN -4C AND
-6C AT 12Z THURS...BUT WARM BTWN +2C AND +4C BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS
PROFILE WL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS WITH HIGHS IN
THE U30S TO L40S MTNS TO U40S TO M50S VALLEYS...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS ANTICIPATED BY FRIDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. LATEST 12Z GFS CONTS TO SUPPORT A
DEVELOPING DEEP CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION ACRS THE NE
CONUS...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WX AND COOL CONDITIONS. THIS
SUPPORT WOULD SUPPORT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SAT
THRU NEXT MONDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40/L50S
VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST PATTERN CONTINUING ACRS THE NE CONUS.
THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT A CHC OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMER/DRIER WX BY MONDAY.
EITHER SOLUTION SUPPORTS BLW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...WITH A CHC
OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND...ITS JUST A QUESTION OF THE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE TRRN DRIVEN PRECIP CHCS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
TAF SITES THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION VCSH AT BTV/PBG
FOR THIS POTENTIAL WITH PREVAILING -RA AT MSS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THRU 12Z TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT BUT INCREASING AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW WITH GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS LIKELY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES KMSS BY 15Z
TUESDAY...WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR VISIBILTY. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH DAY BRINGING WITH IT A LINE OF MODERATE RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS. CANT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER AND +RA RIGHT ALONG THE
LINE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILTY
AND CEILINGS AS THE FRONT PASSES.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAYY THROUGH FRIDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL
PREVAIL...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE OF PRECIP. IN ADDITION...A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WL DEVELOP BY 03Z WEDS. COOLER AND
UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AT SLK/MPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN/SLW
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/NF







000
FXUS61 KALY 220153
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
953 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WITH SOME SHOWERS WELL TO THE
NORTH MOVING MAINLY EAST...SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AT LOW LEVELS BUT CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH AND CURRENT
FORECASTED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK LIKE THEY ARE IN THE
BALL PARK. JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO
INCREASE TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL IN ALL AREAS DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN HIGH INTO THE EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF KEEPS SCT SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WITH TEMPS COOLING HAVE ALSO FORECAST THE RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES...WITH
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. WITH COOL AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO
WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...IT WILL HELP
PRODUCE A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE FORECAST
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY IN THE HWOALY PRODUCT IN CASE THE
WINDS BECOME STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 40S
TO THE 50S.

HIGHS PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SOME WEAK WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS LATER THURSDAY AND WITH DECENT SUNSHINE...HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AROUND 50
IN NORTHERN AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. STILL...WITH SOME WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE...HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THEN...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGH AMPLITUDE AND BLOCKY...WITH A
GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR AN UPPER LOW TO SPIN AROUND JUST OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S....WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
FORMING A NEW UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE DETAILS OF THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ITS PROXIMITY WILL DETERMINE WHETHER
WE HAVE DECENT COVERAGE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE.

SINCE THERE IS SUCH A SPREAD...JUST SUGGESTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAYS AND PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH
DAY/AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH...AT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...THE MIXED CLOUD COVER
AND INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER ENERGY COULD BE CENTERED FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE NEXT WEEKEND SO THAT WE WOULD HAVE MORE SUN...LESS COVERAGE
OF RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL JUST HAVE TO BE
WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ONLY SITE
WHERE VCSH WILL BE MENTIONED BEFORE 18Z IS AT KGFL...WHERE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD DEVELOP. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10
KT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

RH VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT TONIGHT.
THE WIND TONIGHT WILL SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...AND AROUND 55 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LEVEL OF THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK HAS DROPPED TO BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 220152
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
952 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WITH SOME SHOWERS WELL TO THE
NORTH MOVING MAINLY EAST...SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AT LOW LEVELS BUT CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO MUCH AND CURRENT
FORECASTED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK LIKE THEY ARE IN THE
BALL PARK. JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO
INCREASE TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL IN ALL AREAS DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN HIGH INTO THE EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF KEEPS SCT SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WITH TEMPS COOLING HAVE ALSO FORECAST THE RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES...WITH
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. WITH COOL AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO
WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...IT WILL HELP
PRODUCE A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE FORECAST
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY IN THE HWOALY PRODUCT IN CASE THE
WINDS BECOME STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 40S
TO THE 50S.

HIGHS PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SOME WEAK WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS LATER THURSDAY AND WITH DECENT SUNSHINE...HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AROUND 50
IN NORTHERN AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. STILL...WITH SOME WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE...HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THEN...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGH AMPLITUDE AND BLOCKY...WITH A
GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR AN UPPER LOW TO SPIN AROUND JUST OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S....WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
FORMING A NEW UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE DETAILS OF THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ITS PROXIMITY WILL DETERMINE WHETHER
WE HAVE DECENT COVERAGE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE.

SINCE THERE IS SUCH A SPREAD...JUST SUGGESTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAYS AND PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH
DAY/AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH...AT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...THE MIXED CLOUD COVER
AND INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER ENERGY COULD BE CENTERED FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE NEXT WEEKEND SO THAT WE WOULD HAVE MORE SUN...LESS COVERAGE
OF RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL JUST HAVE TO BE
WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ONLY SITE
WHERE VCSH WILL BE MENTIONED BEFORE 18Z IS AT KGFL...WHERE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD DEVELOP. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10
KT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

RH VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT TONIGHT.
THE WIND TONIGHT WILL SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...AND AROUND 55 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LEVEL OF THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK HAS DROPPED TO BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM









000
FXUS61 KOKX 220045
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
845 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
AGAIN BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT...WITH SKIES
GOING FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO PTCLDY. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE DEWPOINTS THIS EVENING WERE STILL IN THE 20S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 40S MOST PLACES...
PERHAPS UPPER 30S ACROSS INTERIOR SE CT AND IN THE LONG ISLAND
PINE BARRENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. WITH A
CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY.

THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES AND A DISTRIBUTION SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF ECS/MAV/MET
GUIDANCE WITH AGAIN COOLER READINGS AT THE COAST WITH MORE ONSHORE
FLOW.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED TO IT DEEPENS ABOUT
3-5 MB AS CONVEYED BY DIFFERENT MODELS. THIS WILL COME FROM A
STRENGTHENING JET STREAK...INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
ALSO...INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING...MAINLY OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY INTO NYC. MUCAPE UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG IS SHOWN.

THEREFORE...EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WESTERN AREAS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY INTO NYC.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...SWITCHING FLOW FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. SHOWERS
WILL BE WITHIN THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AND THEN
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE. LOWS WERE A BLEND OF
MET/MAV/NAM12 TO CONVEY TEMPS STAYING UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE CWA
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CLEARING THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
IT. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ENERGY FOR AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE BUILDING
SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SURFACE SYSTEMS...WEDNESDAY IS
SHAPING UP TO BE WINDY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH. A
FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SLOW TO CHANGE. THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST
BECOMES A CUT-OFF LOW SLOWING DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN.
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WEAKEN A BIT BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY.
GUSTS WILL COME BACK UP ON THURSDAY ALTHOUGH STRONGEST GUSTS MAY BE
MORE ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. WINDS FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO ALLOW A BRIEF SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD
OVERHEAD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT DID NOT GO MUCH HIGHER THAN 30 POP WITH
DIFFERENCES APPARENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS RANGE. THESE
DIFFERENCES ONLY GET LARGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS
TO DEEPEN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CURRENTLY NOT
CARRYING ANY POPS SUNDAY...BUT IF THE CUT-OFF IS CLOSE ENOUGH...SOME
DAYTIME HEATING INSTABILITY SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE COLD
POCKET ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CUT-OFF
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

FOR TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO
BE THE WARMEST DAYS IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S...COOLEST READINGS NEAR THE COAST. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THEN RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COLDER AIR
BEING USHERED IN BEHIND THE LOW TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING.

MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AT
TERMINALS E OF NYC AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS AT KISP/KBDR/KGON
WHERE HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE. AREAS OF MVFR CONDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUE AFTN/EVE...BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO
INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF -SHRA LATE TUE AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-3
HOURS. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF -SHRA LATE TUE AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-3
HOURS. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE.NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF -SHRA LATE TUE AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-3
HOURS. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE.NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF -SHRA LATE TUE AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-3
HOURS. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE.NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF -SHRA LATE TUE AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-3
HOURS. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE.NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF -SHRA LATE TUE AFTN MAY BE +/- 1-3
HOURS. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE 8Z-13Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...-SHRA WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS ENDING IN THE EVE.
COLD FROPA WITH NW-N WINDS G20-25KT IN ITS WAKE.
.WED-THU NIGHT...VFR. NW-N WIND G25-30KT.
.FRI-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS FRI AFTN - SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS MAINLY
STAYING UNDER 10 KT WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHER WINDS...10-15
KT GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT FOR WESTERN OCEAN WEST OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET. WAVEWATCH IS LIKELY OVERDOING SEAS...SO DO NOT THINK SCA
CONDS WILL OCCUR IN THE PRE-FRONTAL S-SW FLOW. GUSTS SHOULD BECOME
MORE FREQUENT LATER TUE NIGHT AFTER COLD FROPA...WITH SCA CONDS
POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN AS SEAS COULD REACH 5 FT.

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL RISE INTO SCA LEVELS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOWERING RH VALUES TO NEAR 30 PERCENT AND STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE CONCERNS CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS EVEN LOWER
RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH
CONTINUED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY IS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM WED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CT RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KBUF 220018
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
818 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
COOLER AIR WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A WEAK SHORT WV LOCATED OVER IL/IN WILL EJECT NEWD THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A BROAD SWATH OF MAINLY
LT/MOD SHRA ORIENTED SW TO NE ACROSS MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN IL/IN.
SCT LT RETURNS CAN BE FOUND OVER OH...WHICH IS PRIMARILY FALLING AS
VIRGA W/SUCH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS. AS THE
SHORT WV OVER IL/IN CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD EXPECT A RAPID INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES W/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER ONTARIO CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/SREF/GFS) IS FAIRLY CLOSE IN TERMS OF
TIMING...BUT THE CONSENSUS IS AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED WITH THE
UPPER TROF...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT BUT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS...FIRST ENTERING
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN SWEEPING ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY AROUND NOON BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE CWA LATE
AFTERNOON. BOTH SURFACE BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY APPEAR
LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT...WHICH STILL SUGGESTS THERE WILL PROBABLY
NOT BE ANY THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ABOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FROM
THIS SYSTEM.

CLOUDS AND INCREASING WINDS SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
VERY LITTLE ON TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP TUESDAY
EVENING FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS. OVERNIGHT THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OVER NEW ENGLAND...WITH A NOTABLE
SECONDARY VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTHERN
NY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WED. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME INCREASE IN LARGE
SCALE ASCENT...AND ALSO BRING WITH IT AN AREA OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE. THIS WILL PRODUCE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MOIST CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR ENHANCEMENT FROM UPSLOPE
PROCESSES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTHERN/WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING STEADILY FALLING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY EXPECT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S ACROSS THE LOW ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO WET SNOW LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
A FEW WET FLAKES MAY ALSO MIX IN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IF ENOUGH
PRECIP REMAINS BY THE TIME TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THERMAL PROFILES AND HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
NAM AND CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM EVEN POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH
UPSLOPE TO PRODUCE SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON THE HILLS WITH
UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT 1200FT.

ON WEDNESDAY DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND ANY REMAINING SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...BRINGING AN END TO
THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST. COLD AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAIN...SO CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS CLEARING WILL
LIKELY START AT LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE LAKES AS LAKE SHADOWS
DEVELOP...WITH CLEARING LAST ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO UPSLOPE
FLOW. 850MB TEMPS REMAIN AROUND -5C ALL DAY...WHICH WILL ONLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 40S AT
BEST ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH
RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DIMINISHING WINDS FROM WEST TO
EAST. THE COOL AIRMASS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD
NIGHT BY LATE APRIL STANDARDS...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOW TO MID 20S IN THE COOLER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER SOME ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE MID 50S IN MANY AREAS. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH JUST
SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH A BRIEF
WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND WARM OCCLUSION AT THE SURFACE WILL SWING QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. THE RAIN SHOULD BE
BRIEF AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING
ACROSS WESTERN NY. A WARMER AIRMASS WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE
INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW TO MID
60S FOR HIGHS.

MODEL GUIDANCE QUICKLY DIVERGES WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
EVOLUTION OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
MOST ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A TURN TOWARDS MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF SWINGS A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL CUTOFF THROUGH ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
MONDAY...WITH A TROUGH DELIVERING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE CUTOFF LOW IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST TO KEEP OUR REGION MAINLY DRY.

THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND RETROGRADES THE CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...KEEPING IT OVER OR JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP MORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH THE COLDER AIR SOME OF THIS MAY BE IN
THE FORM OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MIX OF SNOW AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A WEAK SHORT WV LOCATED OVER IL/IN WILL EJECT NEWD THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SCT LT RETURNS WHICH IS
PRIMARILY FALLING AS VIRGA W/SUCH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. EXPECT CONTINUAL VFR W/INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL LOWER CIGS AND POSSIBLY
VSBY TOWARD DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...WITH MOST SITES LOWERING TO MVFR
FOR 3 TO 6 HOURS. A PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS AT JHW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOME TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT OF THE FRONT...WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS
LINGERING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE UNTIL WINDS INCREASE WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
ON LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES LATER THURSDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
         FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/APFFEL
NEAR TERM...AR/APFFEL
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...AR/APFFEL
MARINE...AR/APFFEL









000
FXUS61 KBTV 220010 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
810 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TONIGHT ON
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 801 PM EDT MONDAY...RDR TRENDS AND FINER RESOLUTION MDLS
SHOWING SCT -SHRA ACTVTY WILL TRAVERSE PORTIONS OF CNDN BDR CTYS
IN NRN NY AND TO SOME EXTENT IN VT AS WELL OVERNGT. THEREFORE...
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS FOR ERLR/HIER POPS IN NY AND HAVE RAISED MIN
T FCSTS AS WELL.


421 PM EDT DISCUSSION...GREAT DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DESPITE
LINGERING CLD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. TEMPS
THIS AFTNOON RANGING IN THE 60S UP THRU THE LOW 70S...ALL RELATED
TO CLD CONDITIONS. SCT -RW ACROSS THE N NY ZONES ATTM...BUT WITH
AREA BEING SO DRY WITH RH READINGS IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE...SPOTS
JUST SEEING A FEW SPRINKLES WITH TRACE ACCUM AT BEST. THESE SHOULD
PUSH THRU/DRY UP OVER NEXT COUPLE HRS ALLOWING FOR MINOR REPRIEVE
BFR MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES. STAYING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
ARRIVAL OF MAIN AREA OF RAIN WHICH BEGINS AROUND 00Z TUESDAY. WITH
AIRMASS ALREADY DRY...EXPECTING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...WITH QPF UP TO 0.10" AT BEST. HIGHEST AMTS WILL BE IN
THE ST LAW VALLEY AND CLOSE TO 12Z TUESDAY WHEN SFC LOW
APPROACHES. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40F
IN HIR TRRN....TO THE MID/UPPER 40S IN VALLEY LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 421 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT WORKING INTO
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HRS...WITH SFC LOW TRACK
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTNOON...SFC LOW WILL
BE OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE FRONTAL
PRECIP. LEADING UP TO THE EVENING HRS...FRONTAL BAND WILL SHIFT
INTO EASTERN VT. MDL TIMING AND EXPECTED PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO HAVE DEVIATED VERY
LITTLE WHICH GIVES AREA 0.20-0.40" OF RAIN. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HRS IN N NY AND BY EARLY AFTNOON FOR
OTHER POINTS EAST. FORECASTED HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLD COVER AHEAD/DURING
FROPA. TIGHT GRADIENT WITH FROPA WILL BRING GUSTS POTENTIAL INTO
THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TRANSIITON FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO NORTHERLY ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW. MAINLY
-RW IN VALLEY LOCALES WITH -RW TRANSITIONING TO -SW AT HIR ELEV
WITH 1-2" LOCALIZED POTENTIAL ACCUM. STILL LOOKING FOR 10-20 MPH
WINDS WITH SOME LOCALLY HIR GUSTS AND LOWS IN THE 30S FOR HIR TRRN
TO NEAR 40F IN THE MAIN VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE ENTIRE CWA UNDER NORTHERLY WIND REGIME W/ DECREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OVER PRECIP OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST...MAINLY OVER HIR TRRN. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND EXITING
LOW WILL KEEP TIGHT GRADIENT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS BUT LESSENING
GOING INTO EVENING HRS FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF -RW FOR VALLEY LOCALES WITH SCT -SW/-RW OVER HIR
TRRN. SNOW ACCUM AROUND AN INCH OR SO WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NE VT
CLOSEST TO EXITING LOW. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 40S TO MID 50S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S IN HIR TRRN TO THE LOW 30S
ELSEWHERE. LOW NUMBERS AIDED BY CAA AHEAD OF SFC RIDGE COMBINED W/
CLRING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ANTICIPATED...WITH CHANGEABLE WX EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...TYPICAL OF
SPRINGTIME ACRS THE NE CONUS. DEEP CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL
CIRCULATION WL BE LIFTING EAST OF OUR CWA ON THURSDAY...WITH BRISK
NW WINDS. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN THE
MORNING...MAY PRODUCE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY ACRS THE MTNS. SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FOR THURS AFTN INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS START BTWN -4C AND
-6C AT 12Z THURS...BUT WARM BTWN +2C AND +4C BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS
PROFILE WL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS WITH HIGHS IN
THE U30S TO L40S MTNS TO U40S TO M50S VALLEYS...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS ANTICIPATED BY FRIDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. LATEST 12Z GFS CONTS TO SUPPORT A
DEVELOPING DEEP CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION ACRS THE NE
CONUS...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WX AND COOL CONDITIONS. THIS
SUPPORT WOULD SUPPORT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SAT
THRU NEXT MONDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40/L50S
VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST PATTERN CONTINUING ACRS THE NE CONUS.
THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT A CHC OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMER/DRIER WX BY MONDAY.
EITHER SOLUTION SUPPORTS BLW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...WITH A CHC
OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND...ITS JUST A QUESTION OF THE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE TRRN DRIVEN PRECIP CHCS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
TAF SITES THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION VCSH AT BTV/PBG
FOR THIS POTENTIAL WITH PREVAILING -RA AT MSS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THRU 12Z TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT BUT INCREASING AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW WITH GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS LIKELY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES KMSS BY 15Z
TUESDAY...WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR VISIBILTY. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH DAY BRINGING WITH IT A LINE OF MODERATE RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS. CANT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER AND +RA RIGHT ALONG THE
LINE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILTY
AND CEILINGS AS THE FRONT PASSES.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAYY THROUGH FRIDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL
PREVAIL...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE OF PRECIP. IN ADDITION...A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WL DEVELOP BY 03Z WEDS. COOLER AND
UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AT SLK/MPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN/SLW
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/NF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 212359
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
759 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS TUESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. BEHIND THAT FRONT, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING TO DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
120 PM UPDATE...
CHALLENGE FOR THE TONIGHT PD REVOLVES ARND HOW QUICKLY RAIN CAN MV
IN. STRONG WAA IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACRS CWA WITH TEMPS UP IN THE
70S IN THE FINGER LKS. TROFFING LOCATED ACRS CNTRL PART OF THE
NATION WL EVENTUALLY PLAY A ROLE IN HOW QUICKLY PCPN GETS HERE AND
HOW LONG IT WL LINGER.

AS OF NOW, WK LEAD S/WV LOCATED IN SRN IL AREA WL EJECT NEWD TWD CWA
OVRNGT. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCRS IN CLD CVR BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WL
NOT BE ASSOC WITH THIS WV, THUS ONLY A FEW HIT N MISS SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES EXPECTED THRU 12Z TUE ACRS WRN ZONES. HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE THAT LINE OF SHOWERS WL HV BARELY MVD INTO WRN NY BY 12Z.
WHILE THIS SEEMS A LITTLE FAR-FETCHED TO ME WL BACK OFF ON POPS TO
JUST 20 ACRS FAR WRN ZONES THRU DAYBREAK WITH MOST OF CWA RMNG DRY
TONIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLD CVR BROUGHT IN FM AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WL KEEP TEMPS FM
DROPPING MUCH INTO THE 40S BY 12Z TUE. SW FLOW WL CONT TO DRAW IN
SFC MOISTURE WITH DWPTS RISING INTO THE 40S BY MRNG. 1 INCH PW
VALUES NOW LOCATED ACRS THE MS RVR VLY WL BE DRAWN IN ON H8 WINDS
AND INCRS TO BTWN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCHES. 12Z GFS SEEMS TO HV
INITIALIZED TOO HIGH WITH PW VALUES, POSSIBLY ALLOWING MODEL TO BRING
PCPN INTO THE AREA TOO FAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS WL BE OVR THE AREA TUE MRNG AND CONT OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS CDFNT MVS THRU. HV TRIED TO NAIL DOWN TIMING OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACRS THE REGION MVG INTO FINGER LKS AREAS BY 16Z
THEN TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF CWA BY 21Z. EXPECT BASINWIDE
RAINFALL AVGS OF AROUND 0.25 INCHES DRG THE DAY TOMORROW. AS FOR
THUNDER, NAM IS INDICATING MORE INSTABILITY THAN GFS AND EURO ARE SO
WL LV MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF GRIDS. HWVR, CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLD RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT SOME POINT DRG THE AFTN. AFTN HIGHS RUN
THE GAMUT TO ARND 60 PER MAV AND ARND 70 PER MET. HV GONE SLIGHTLY
ABV MAV NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR 60S ACRS MOST OF THE REGION
THANKS TO SIGNIFICANT CLD CVR AND FROPA OCCURRING BTWN 18Z AND 00Z.

SHOWERS CONT ON TUE NGT AS UL TROF SWINGS THRU. 120+ KT SPEED MAX AT
H2 WL ENHANCE LIFT AFT MIDNIGHT TOMORROW NGT WITH CWA IN LFQ. WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GUSTS ON THE
ORDER OF 20-30KTS BY WED MRNG. TEMPS WL DIP INTO THE L/M 30S AND MAY
CAUSE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW DRG THE MRNG. SHOWERS WL LINGER INTO
THE AFTN BFR SYSTEM DEPARTS.

HIPRES WL ASSURE QUIET WX THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH THE IDEA THAT A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LITTLE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED AND NO THUNDER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING A MAINLY DRY SCENARIO FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT LOW CHC POPS
GOING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DESPITE SOME DOWNSTREAM DISAGREEMENT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME
TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 12Z. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES DURING THE AM HOURS...EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. AS RAIN MOVES
THROUGH...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
SITES UNDER THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION TO RAIN...BOTH BGM
AND AVP STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME CONVECTION AS MAIN FRONT
PASSES. FOR NOW...HAVE ADVERTISED THUNDER POTENTIAL AT
BOTH LOCATIONS WITH A PROB30 MENTION. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALSO
EXISTS AT ITH AND ELM...HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS
POINT TO MENTION BASED ON DISTANCE INTO THE FCST CYCLE. FOLLOWING
FROPA...COLD ADVECTION STATUS WILL BECOME ENTRANCED ACROSS THE
AREA AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT-WED...SOME RESTRICTIONS AS SHOWERY FRONT PASSES
TUE...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS INTO WED ON BACK SIDE
OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...VFR.

LATE THU NGT-FRI... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
230 PM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
WITH AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 INCHES, THUS NO FIRE WX
CONCERNS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...JAB/MSE
AVIATION...CMG
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KALY 212320
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

PREV DISC BELOW...
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS
GRADUALLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT SINCE MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE...EVEN ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AS A
SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPS TEMPS FROM FALLING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO
INCREASE TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL IN ALL AREAS DURING WEDNESAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN HIGH INTO THE EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF KEEPS SCT SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WITH TEMPS COOLING HAVE ALSO FORECAST THE RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES...WITH
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. WITH COOL AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO
WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...IT WILL HELP
PRODUCE A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE FORECAST
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY IN THE HWOALY PRODUCT IN CASE THE
WINDS BECOME STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 40S
TO THE 50S.

HIGHS PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SOME WEAK WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS LATER THURSDAY AND WITH DECENT SUNSHINE...HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AROUND 50
IN NORTHERN AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. STILL...WITH SOME WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE...HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THEN...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGH AMPLITUDE AND BLOCKY...WITH A
GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR AN UPPER LOW TO SPIN AROUND JUST OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S....WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
FORMING A NEW UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE DETAILS OF THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ITS PROXIMITY WILL DETERMINE WHETHER
WE HAVE DECENT COVERAGE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE.

SINCE THERE IS SUCH A SPREAD...JUST SUGGESTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAYS AND PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH
DAY/AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH...AT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...THE MIXED CLOUD COVER
AND INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER ENERGY COULD BE CENTERED FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE NEXT WEEKEND SO THAT WE WOULD HAVE MORE SUN...LESS COVERAGE
OF RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL JUST HAVE TO BE
WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ONLY SITE
WHERE VCSH WILL BE MENTIONED BEFORE 18Z IS AT KGFL...WHERE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD DEVELOP. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10
KT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

RH VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT TONIGHT.
THE WIND TONIGHT WILL SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...AND AROUND 55 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LEVEL OF THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK HAS DROPPED TO BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 212318
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TONIGHT ON
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 716 PM EDT MONDAY...RDR TRENDS AND FINER RESOLUTION MDLS
SHOWING SCT -SHRA ACTVTY WILL TRAVERSE PORTIONS OF CNDN BDR CTYS
IN NRN NY AND TO SOME EXTENT IN VT AS WELL OVERNGT. THEREFORE...
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS FOR ERLR/HIER POPS IN NY AND HAVE RAISED MIN
T FCSTS AS WELL.


421 PM EDT DISCUSSION...GREAT DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DESPITE
LINGERING CLD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. TEMPS
THIS AFTNOON RANGING IN THE 60S UP THRU THE LOW 70S...ALL RELATED
TO CLD CONDITIONS. SCT -RW ACROSS THE N NY ZONES ATTM...BUT WITH
AREA BEING SO DRY WITH RH READINGS IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE...SPOTS
JUST SEEING A FEW SPRINKLES WITH TRACE ACCUM AT BEST. THESE SHOULD
PUSH THRU/DRY UP OVER NEXT COUPLE HRS ALLOWING FOR MINOR REPRIEVE
BFR MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES. STAYING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
ARRIVAL OF MAIN AREA OF RAIN WHICH BEGINS AROUND 00Z TUESDAY. WITH
AIRMASS ALREADY DRY...EXPECTING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...WITH QPF UP TO 0.10" AT BEST. HIGHEST AMTS WILL BE IN
THE ST LAW VALLEY AND CLOSE TO 12Z TUESDAY WHEN SFC LOW
APPROACHES. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40F
IN HIR TRRN....TO THE MID/UPPER 40S IN VALLEY LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 421 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT WORKING INTO
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HRS...WITH SFC LOW TRACK
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTNOON...SFC LOW WILL
BE OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE FRONTAL
PRECIP. LEADING UP TO THE EVENING HRS...FRONTAL BAND WILL SHIFT
INTO EASTERN VT. MDL TIMING AND EXPECTED PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO HAVE DEVIATED VERY
LITTLE WHICH GIVES AREA 0.20-0.40" OF RAIN. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HRS IN N NY AND BY EARLY AFTNOON FOR
OTHER POINTS EAST. FORECASTED HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLD COVER AHEAD/DURING
FROPA. TIGHT GRADIENT WITH FROPA WILL BRING GUSTS POTENTIAL INTO
THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TRANSIITON FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO NORTHERLY ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW. MAINLY
-RW IN VALLEY LOCALES WITH -RW TRANSITIONING TO -SW AT HIR ELEV
WITH 1-2" LOCALIZED POTENTIAL ACCUM. STILL LOOKING FOR 10-20 MPH
WINDS WITH SOME LOCALLY HIR GUSTS AND LOWS IN THE 30S FOR HIR TRRN
TO NEAR 40F IN THE MAIN VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE ENTIRE CWA UNDER NORTHERLY WIND REGIME W/ DECREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OVER PRECIP OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST...MAINLY OVER HIR TRRN. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND EXITING
LOW WILL KEEP TIGHT GRADIENT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS BUT LESSENING
GOING INTO EVENING HRS FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF -RW FOR VALLEY LOCALES WITH SCT -SW/-RW OVER HIR
TRRN. SNOW ACCUM AROUND AN INCH OR SO WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NE VT
CLOSEST TO EXITING LOW. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 40S TO MID 50S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S IN HIR TRRN TO THE LOW 30S
ELSEWHERE. LOW NUMBERS AIDED BY CAA AHEAD OF SFC RIDGE COMBINED W/
CLRING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ANTICIPATED...WITH CHANGEABLE WX EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...TYPICAL OF
SPRINGTIME ACRS THE NE CONUS. DEEP CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL
CIRCULATION WL BE LIFTING EAST OF OUR CWA ON THURSDAY...WITH BRISK
NW WINDS. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN THE
MORNING...MAY PRODUCE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY ACRS THE MTNS. SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FOR THURS AFTN INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS START BTWN -4C AND
-6C AT 12Z THURS...BUT WARM BTWN +2C AND +4C BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS
PROFILE WL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS WITH HIGHS IN
THE U30S TO L40S MTNS TO U40S TO M50S VALLEYS...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS ANTICIPATED BY FRIDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. LATEST 12Z GFS CONTS TO SUPPORT A
DEVELOPING DEEP CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION ACRS THE NE
CONUS...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WX AND COOL CONDITIONS. THIS
SUPPORT WOULD SUPPORT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SAT
THRU NEXT MONDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40/L50S
VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST PATTERN CONTINUING ACRS THE NE CONUS.
THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT A CHC OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMER/DRIER WX BY MONDAY.
EITHER SOLUTION SUPPORTS BLW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...WITH A CHC
OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND...ITS JUST A QUESTION OF THE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE TRRN DRIVEN PRECIP CHCS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A WEAK SFC WARM FRNT ACRS OUR NORTHERN TAF
SITES THIS AFTN WL CONT TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION VCSH AT BTV/PBG FOR
THIS POTENTIAL WITH A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 01-04 FOR -RA AT MSS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THRU 18Z
TUESDAY. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNTS THIS
AFTN...WL BECOME LIGHT MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN BY THIS EVENING. SFC
COLD FRNT APPROACHES MSS BY 15Z TUESDAY...WITH AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS BTWN 18Z TUES
AND 03Z WEDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE OF PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WL DEVELOP BY 03Z
WEDS. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS
NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN/SLW
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER







000
FXUS61 KALY 212318
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
718 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
JUST MONIR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

PREV DISC BELOW...
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS
GRADUALLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT SINCE MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE...EVEN ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AS A
SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPS TEMPS FROM FALLING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO
INCREASE TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL IN ALL AREAS DURING WEDNESAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN HIGH INTO THE EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF KEEPS SCT SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WITH TEMPS COOLING HAVE ALSO FORECAST THE RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES...WITH
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. WITH COOL AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO
WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...IT WILL HELP
PRODUCE A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE FORECAST
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY IN THE HWOALY PRODUCT IN CASE THE
WINDS BECOME STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 40S
TO THE 50S.

HIGHS PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SOME WEAK WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS LATER THURSDAY AND WITH DECENT SUNSHINE...HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AROUND 50
IN NORTHERN AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. STILL...WITH SOME WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE...HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THEN...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGH AMPLITUDE AND BLOCKY...WITH A
GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR AN UPPER LOW TO SPIN AROUND JUST OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S....WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
FORMING A NEW UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE DETAILS OF THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ITS PROXIMITY WILL DETERMINE WHETHER
WE HAVE DECENT COVERAGE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE.

SINCE THERE IS SUCH A SPREAD...JUST SUGGESTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAYS AND PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH
DAY/AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH...AT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...THE MIXED CLOUD COVER
AND INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER ENERGY COULD BE CENTERED FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE NEXT WEEKEND SO THAT WE WOULD HAVE MORE SUN...LESS COVERAGE
OF RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL JUST HAVE TO BE
WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ONLY SITE
WHERE VCSH WILL BE MENTIONED BEFORE 18Z IS AT KGFL...WHERE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD DEVELOP. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10
KT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

RH VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT TONIGHT.
THE WIND TONIGHT WILL SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...AND AROUND 55 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LEVEL OF THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK HAS DROPPED TO BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 212040 RRA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT SINCE MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE...EVEN ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AS A SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPS
TEMPS FROM FALLING VERY MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO
INCREASE TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL IN ALL AREAS DURING WEDNESAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN HIGH INTO THE EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF KEEPS SCT SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WITH TEMPS COOLING HAVE ALSO FORECAST THE RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES...WITH
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. WITH COOL AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO
WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...IT WILL HELP
PRODUCE A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE FORECAST
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY IN THE HWOALY PRODUCT IN CASE THE
WINDS BECOME STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 40S
TO THE 50S.

HIGHS PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  SOME WEAK WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS LATER THURSDAY AND WITH DECENT SUNSHINE...HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AROUND 50
IN NORTHERN AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. STILL...WITH SOME WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE...HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THEN...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGH AMPLITUDE AND BLOCKY...WITH A
GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR AN UPPER LOW TO SPIN AROUND JUST OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S....WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
FORMING A NEW UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE DETAILS OF THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ITS PROXIMITY WILL DETERMINE WHETHER
WE HAVE DECENT COVERAGE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE.

SINCE THERE IS SUCH A SPREAD...JUST SUGGESTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAYS AND PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH
DAY/AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH...AT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...THE MIXED CLOUD COVER
AND INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER ENERGY COULD BE CENTERED FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE NEXT WEEKEND SO THAT WE WOULD HAVE MORE SUN...LESS COVERAGE
OF RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL JUST HAVE TO BE
WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
18Z TUESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER ON THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ONLY SITE
WHERE VCSH WILL BE MENTIONED BEFORE 18Z IS AT KGFL...WHERE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD DEVELOP. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10
KT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

RH VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT TONIGHT.
THE WIND TONIGHT WILL SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...AND AROUND 55 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE LEVEL OF THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK HAS DROPPED TO BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...GJM/HWJIV















000
FXUS61 KBTV 212021
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
421 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TONIGHT ON
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 421 PM EDT MONDAY...GREAT DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DESPITE
LINGERING CLD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. TEMPS
THIS AFTNOON RANGING IN THE 60S UP THRU THE LOW 70S...ALL RELATED
TO CLD CONDITIONS. SCT -RW ACROSS THE N NY ZONES ATTM...BUT WITH
AREA BEING SO DRY WITH RH READINGS IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE...SPOTS
JUST SEEING A FEW SPRINKLES WITH TRACE ACCUM AT BEST. THESE SHOULD
PUSH THRU/DRY UP OVER NEXT COUPLE HRS ALLOWING FOR MINOR REPRIEVE
BFR MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES. STAYING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
ARRIVAL OF MAIN AREA OF RAIN WHICH BEGINS AROUND 00Z TUESDAY. WITH
AIRMASS ALREADY DRY...EXPECTING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...WITH QPF UP TO 0.10" AT BEST. HIGHEST AMTS WILL BE IN
THE ST LAW VALLEY AND CLOSE TO 12Z TUESDAY WHEN SFC LOW
APPROACHES. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40F
IN HIR TRRN....TO THE MID/UPPER 40S IN VALLEY LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 421 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT WORKING INTO
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HRS...WITH SFC LOW TRACK
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTNOON...SFC LOW WILL
BE OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE FRONTAL
PRECIP. LEADING UP TO THE EVENING HRS...FRONTAL BAND WILL SHIFT
INTO EASTERN VT. MDL TIMING AND EXPECTED PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO HAVE DEVIATED VERY
LITTLE WHICH GIVES AREA 0.20-0.40" OF RAIN. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HRS IN N NY AND BY EARLY AFTNOON FOR
OTHER POINTS EAST. FORECASTED HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLD COVER AHEAD/DURING
FROPA. TIGHT GRADIENT WITH FROPA WILL BRING GUSTS POTENTIAL INTO
THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TRANSIITON FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO NORTHERLY ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW. MAINLY
-RW IN VALLEY LOCALES WITH -RW TRANSITIONING TO -SW AT HIR ELEV
WITH 1-2" LOCALIZED POTENTIAL ACCUM. STILL LOOKING FOR 10-20 MPH
WINDS WITH SOME LOCALLY HIR GUSTS AND LOWS IN THE 30S FOR HIR TRRN
TO NEAR 40F IN THE MAIN VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE ENTIRE CWA UNDER NORTHERLY WIND REGIME W/ DECREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OVER PRECIP OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST...MAINLY OVER HIR TRRN. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND EXITING
LOW WILL KEEP TIGHT GRADIENT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS BUT LESSENING
GOING INTO EVENING HRS FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF -RW FOR VALLEY LOCALES WITH SCT -SW/-RW OVER HIR
TRRN. SNOW ACCUM AROUND AN INCH OR SO WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NE VT
CLOSEST TO EXITING LOW. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 40S TO MID 50S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S IN HIR TRRN TO THE LOW 30S
ELSEWHERE. LOW NUMBERS AIDED BY CAA AHEAD OF SFC RIDGE COMBINED W/
CLRING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ANTICIPATED...WITH CHANGEABLE WX EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...TYPICAL OF
SPRINGTIME ACRS THE NE CONUS. DEEP CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL
CIRCULATION WL BE LIFTING EAST OF OUR CWA ON THURSDAY...WITH BRISK
NW WINDS. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN THE
MORNING...MAY PRODUCE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY ACRS THE MTNS. SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FOR THURS AFTN INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS START BTWN -4C AND
-6C AT 12Z THURS...BUT WARM BTWN +2C AND +4C BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS
PROFILE WL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS WITH HIGHS IN
THE U30S TO L40S MTNS TO U40S TO M50S VALLEYS...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS ANTICIPATED BY FRIDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. LATEST 12Z GFS CONTS TO SUPPORT A
DEVELOPING DEEP CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION ACRS THE NE
CONUS...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WX AND COOL CONDITIONS. THIS
SUPPORT WOULD SUPPORT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SAT
THRU NEXT MONDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40/L50S
VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST PATTERN CONTINUING ACRS THE NE CONUS.
THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT A CHC OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMER/DRIER WX BY MONDAY.
EITHER SOLUTION SUPPORTS BLW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...WITH A CHC
OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND...ITS JUST A QUESTION OF THE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE TRRN DRIVEN PRECIP CHCS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A WEAK SFC WARM FRNT ACRS OUR NORTHERN TAF
SITES THIS AFTN WL CONT TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION VCSH AT BTV/PBG FOR
THIS POTENTIAL WITH A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 01-04 FOR -RA AT MSS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THRU 18Z
TUESDAY. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNTS THIS
AFTN...WL BECOME LIGHT MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN BY THIS EVENING. SFC
COLD FRNT APPROACHES MSS BY 15Z TUESDAY...WITH AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS BTWN 18Z TUES
AND 03Z WEDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE OF PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WL DEVELOP BY 03Z
WEDS. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS
NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER










000
FXUS61 KOKX 211957
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS TONIGHT...MOVING FARTHER AWAY. THIS WILL
GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY WHICH WILL MOVE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. A LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM TH WEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A TYPICAL SPRING SCENARIO FOR THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WARMEST IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO BE IN THE TEENS. MEANWHILE SOUTHEAST
CONNECTICUT IS THE COOLEST SPOT WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE
PROMOTING HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S.

CLOUDS REMAIN MINIMAL INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH THE RESIDUAL SUBSIDENCE OF
THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE AREA. THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.

AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
WITH THIS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE MORE OPTIMAL AND ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT...WHERE DEWPOINTS
WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGHER...SOME SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL
DEVELOP IN THE COOLEST SPOTS.

LOWS WERE A BLEND OF 2/3 ECE AND 1/3 MET...FAVORING COLDER SIDE OF
MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. WITH A
CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY.

THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES AND A DISTRIBUTION SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF ECS/MAV/MET
GUIDANCE WITH AGAIN COOLER READINGS AT THE COAST WITH MORE ONSHORE
FLOW.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE PARENT LOW ATTACHED TO IT DEEPENS ABOUT
3-5 MB AS CONVEYED BY DIFFERENT MODELS. THIS WILL COME FROM A
STRENGTHENING JET STREAK...INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
ALSO...INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING...MAINLY OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY INTO NYC. MUCAPE UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG IS SHOWN.

THEREFORE...EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WESTERN AREAS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY INTO NYC.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...SWITCHING FLOW FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. SHOWERS
WILL BE WITHIN THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AND THEN
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE. LOWS WERE A BLEND OF
MET/MAV/NAM12 TO CONVEY TEMPS STAYING UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE CWA
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CLEARING THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
IT. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ENERGY FOR AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE BUILDING
SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SURFACE SYSTEMS...WEDNESDAY IS
SHAPING UP TO BE WINDY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH. A
FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SLOW TO CHANGE. THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST
BECOMES A CUT-OFF LOW SLOWING DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN.
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WEAKEN A BIT BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY.
GUSTS WILL COME BACK UP ON THURSDAY ALTHOUGH STRONGEST GUSTS MAY BE
MORE ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. WINDS FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO ALLOW A BRIEF SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD
OVERHEAD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT DID NOT GO MUCH HIGHER THAN 30 POP WITH
DIFFERENCES APPARENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS RANGE. THESE
DIFFERENCES ONLY GET LARGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS
TO DEEPEN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CURRENTLY NOT
CARRYING ANY POPS SUNDAY...BUT IF THE CUT-OFF IS CLOSE ENOUGH...SOME
DAYTIME HEATING INSTABILITY SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE COLD
POCKET ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CUT-OFF
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

FOR TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO
BE THE WARMEST DAYS IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S...COOLEST READINGS NEAR THE COAST. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THEN RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COLDER AIR
BEING USHERED IN BEHIND THE LOW TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING.

VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY.

SEA BREEZES ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT KJFK FROM 180 DEGS AT 13 KT BY 20Z. SSW
WINDS OF 5 KT OR LESS ARE FORECAST SUNSET-SUNRISE. SSW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR STRATUS AFT 06Z
TONIGHT AT KGON.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE TO 13Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE AFT-TUE NIGHT...SHRA BECOMING LIKELY WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. NW-N
WINDS G20-25KT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
.WED-THU NIGHT...VFR. NW-N WIND G25-30KT.
.FRI-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS FRI AFTN - SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS MAINLY
STAYING UNDER 10 KTS WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHER WINDS...10-15
KT GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT FOR WESTERN OCEAN WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.
THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SOMETIMES OVERESTIMATES WAVES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW SO SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
SCA WAS NOT ISSUED DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND MORE UNCERTAINTY. GUSTS
BECOME MORE FREQUENT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH SCA
POSSIBLE AGAIN AS OCEAN SEAS COULD AGAIN REACH 5 FT.

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL RISE INTO SCA LEVELS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOWERING RH VALUES TO NEAR 30 PERCENT AND STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE CONCERNS CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS EVEN LOWER
RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH
CONTINUED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
NIGHT...AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS IS FORECAST. NO
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DS
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JM/DS
FIRE WEATHER...DS
HYDROLOGY...JM/DS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 211955
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
355 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...GIVING
WAY TO A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE EXITING INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES BENEATH
PATCHY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST
INLAND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR
THE LAKESHORES...WHERE THE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD GUST TO 20 MPH IN
SPOTS. DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR
PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND...WITH POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE OR
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/SREF/GFS) IS FAIRLY
CLOSE IN TERMS OF TIMING...BUT THE CONSENSUS IS AN HOUR OR TWO
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED WITH THE UPPER TROF...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT
BUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW
HOURS...FIRST ENTERING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN
SWEEPING ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AROUND NOON BEFORE EXITING EAST
OF THE CWA LATE AFTERNOON. BOTH SURFACE BASED AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY APPEAR LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT...WHICH STILL SUGGESTS
THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ANY THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ABOUT A
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.

CLOUDS AND INCREASING WINDS SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
VERY LITTLE ON TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP TUESDAY
EVENING FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS. OVERNIGHT THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OVER NEW ENGLAND...WITH A NOTABLE
SECONDARY VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTHERN
NY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WED. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME INCREASE IN LARGE
SCALE ASCENT...AND ALSO BRING WITH IT AN AREA OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE. THIS WILL PRODUCE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MOIST CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR ENHANCEMENT FROM UPSLOPE
PROCESSES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTHERN/WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING STEADILY FALLING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY EXPECT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S ACROSS THE LOW ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO WET SNOW LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
A FEW WET FLAKES MAY ALSO MIX IN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IF ENOUGH
PRECIP REMAINS BY THE TIME TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THERMAL PROFILES AND HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
NAM AND CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM EVEN POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH
UPSLOPE TO PRODUCE SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON THE HILLS WITH
UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT 1200FT.

ON WEDNESDAY DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND ANY REMAINING SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...BRINGING AN END TO
THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST. COLD AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAIN...SO CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS CLEARING WILL
LIKELY START AT LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE LAKES AS LAKE SHADOWS
DEVELOP...WITH CLEARING LAST ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO UPSLOPE
FLOW. 850MB TEMPS REMAIN AROUND -5C ALL DAY...WHICH WILL ONLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 40S AT
BEST ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH
RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DIMINISHING WINDS FROM WEST TO
EAST. THE COOL AIRMASS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD
NIGHT BY LATE APRIL STANDARDS...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOW TO MID 20S IN THE COOLER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER SOME ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE MID 50S IN MANY AREAS. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH JUST
SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH A BRIEF
WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND WARM OCCLUSION AT THE SURFACE WILL SWING QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. THE RAIN SHOULD BE
BRIEF AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING
ACROSS WESTERN NY. A WARMER AIRMASS WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE
INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW TO MID
60S FOR HIGHS.

MODEL GUIDANCE QUICKLY DIVERGES WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
EVOLUTION OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
MOST ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A TURN TOWARDS MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF SWINGS A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL CUTOFF THROUGH ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
MONDAY...WITH A TROUGH DELIVERING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE CUTOFF LOW IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST TO KEEP OUR REGION MAINLY DRY.

THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND RETROGRADES THE CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...KEEPING IT OVER OR JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP MORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH THE COLDER AIR SOME OF THIS MAY BE IN
THE FORM OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MIX OF SNOW AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT ONLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LOWER CIGS AND POSSIBLY VSBY TOWARD
DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...WITH MOST SITES LOWERING TO MVFR FOR 3 TO 6
HOURS. A PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
AT JHW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOME TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
EXIT OF THE FRONT...WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS LINGERING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE UNTIL WINDS INCREASE WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
ON LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES LATER THURSDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
         FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL






000
FXUS61 KBTV 211952
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY...THOUGH CLOUDIER THAN YESTERDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED ZONE FORECAST SENT TO REFLECT
CURRENT CLD COVER AND TEMP TRENDS. EXPECTING A FINAL SURGE OF CLDS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTNOON. LATEST VIS SATELLITE SHOWS
AREA SLOWLY MVG THRU THE ST LAW VALLEY/WESTERN DACKS...W/ SCT
CLDS ELSEWHERE. SOME CLRING BEHIND THIS BUT AFTNOON HRS
PROGRESSING WITH LESS TIME TO JUMP TO REACH THE 70F MARK. HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPS IN N NY TO BRING IT CLOSE...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE CVLY. REST OF CWA M/U60S WITH SOME SPOT 70F POSSIBLE...BUT IS
DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS BKN/OVC DECK MVG EAST IN N NY
ATTM. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD TO WINDS...OTHERWISE REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WIDESPREAD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...10-20 MPH ALONG THE FRONT. MAIN PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY AROUND A
HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT TRICKY FOR TUESDAY...JUST FIGURING OUT WHEN MAX TEMPS
WILL BE ACHIEVED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS A VERY SLOW MOVER.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS FROM NEAR THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AT 12Z...AT THE NY VT BORDER BY 18Z...AND THEN
EAST OF VT AT 00Z. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN TONIGHT AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT. MAX TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ANTICIPATED...WITH CHANGEABLE WX EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...TYPICAL OF
SPRINGTIME ACRS THE NE CONUS. DEEP CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL
CIRCULATION WL BE LIFTING EAST OF OUR CWA ON THURSDAY...WITH BRISK
NW WINDS. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN THE
MORNING...MAY PRODUCE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY ACRS THE MTNS. SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FOR THURS AFTN INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS START BTWN -4C AND
-6C AT 12Z THURS...BUT WARM BTWN +2C AND +4C BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS
PROFILE WL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS WITH HIGHS IN
THE U30S TO L40S MTNS TO U40S TO M50S VALLEYS...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS ANTICIPATED BY FRIDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. LATEST 12Z GFS CONTS TO SUPPORT A
DEVELOPING DEEP CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION ACRS THE NE
CONUS...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WX AND COOL CONDITIONS. THIS
SUPPORT WOULD SUPPORT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SAT
THRU NEXT MONDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40/L50S
VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST PATTERN CONTINUING ACRS THE NE CONUS.
THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT A CHC OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMER/DRIER WX BY MONDAY.
EITHER SOLUTION SUPPORTS BLW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...WITH A CHC
OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND...ITS JUST A QUESTION OF THE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE TRRN DRIVEN PRECIP CHCS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A WEAK SFC WARM FRNT ACRS OUR NORTHERN TAF
SITES THIS AFTN WL CONT TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION VCSH AT BTV/PBG FOR
THIS POTENTIAL WITH A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 01-04 FOR -RA AT MSS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THRU 18Z
TUESDAY. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNTS THIS
AFTN...WL BECOME LIGHT MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN BY THIS EVENING. SFC
COLD FRNT APPROACHES MSS BY 15Z TUESDAY...WITH AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS BTWN 18Z TUES
AND 03Z WEDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE OF PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WL DEVELOP BY 03Z
WEDS. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS
NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBGM 211850
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
250 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS TUESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. BEHIND THAT FRONT, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING TO DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
120 PM UPDATE...
CHALLENGE FOR THE TONIGHT PD REVOLVES ARND HOW QUICKLY RAIN CAN MV
IN. STRONG WAA IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACRS CWA WITH TEMPS UP IN THE
70S IN THE FINGER LKS. TROFFING LOCATED ACRS CNTRL PART OF THE
NATION WL EVENTUALLY PLAY A ROLE IN HOW QUICKLY PCPN GETS HERE AND
HOW LONG IT WL LINGER.

AS OF NOW, WK LEAD S/WV LOCATED IN SRN IL AREA WL EJECT NEWD TWD CWA
OVRNGT. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCRS IN CLD CVR BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WL
NOT BE ASSOC WITH THIS WV, THUS ONLY A FEW HIT N MISS SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES EXPECTED THRU 12Z TUE ACRS WRN ZONES. HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE THAT LINE OF SHOWERS WL HV BARELY MVD INTO WRN NY BY 12Z.
WHILE THIS SEEMS A LITTLE FAR-FETCHED TO ME WL BACK OFF ON POPS TO
JUST 20 ACRS FAR WRN ZONES THRU DAYBREAK WITH MOST OF CWA RMNG DRY
TONIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLD CVR BROUGHT IN FM AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WL KEEP TEMPS FM
DROPPING MUCH INTO THE 40S BY 12Z TUE. SW FLOW WL CONT TO DRAW IN
SFC MOISTURE WITH DWPTS RISING INTO THE 40S BY MRNG. 1 INCH PW
VALUES NOW LOCATED ACRS THE MS RVR VLY WL BE DRAWN IN ON H8 WINDS
AND INCRS TO BTWN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCHES. 12Z GFS SEEMS TO HV
INITIALIZED TOO HIGH WITH PW VALUES, POSSIBLY ALLOWING MODEL TO BRING
PCPN INTO THE AREA TOO FAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS WL BE OVR THE AREA TUE MRNG AND CONT OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS CDFNT MVS THRU. HV TRIED TO NAIL DOWN TIMING OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACRS THE REGION MVG INTO FINGER LKS AREAS BY 16Z
THEN TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF CWA BY 21Z. EXPECT BASINWIDE
RAINFALL AVGS OF AROUND 0.25 INCHES DRG THE DAY TOMORROW. AS FOR
THUNDER, NAM IS INDICATING MORE INSTABILITY THAN GFS AND EURO ARE SO
WL LV MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF GRIDS. HWVR, CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLD RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT SOME POINT DRG THE AFTN. AFTN HIGHS RUN
THE GAMUT TO ARND 60 PER MAV AND ARND 70 PER MET. HV GONE SLIGHTLY
ABV MAV NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR 60S ACRS MOST OF THE REGION
THANKS TO SIGNIFICANT CLD CVR AND FROPA OCCURRING BTWN 18Z AND 00Z.

SHOWERS CONT ON TUE NGT AS UL TROF SWINGS THRU. 120+ KT SPEED MAX AT
H2 WL ENHANCE LIFT AFT MIDNIGHT TOMORROW NGT WITH CWA IN LFQ. WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GUSTS ON THE
ORDER OF 20-30KTS BY WED MRNG. TEMPS WL DIP INTO THE L/M 30S AND MAY
CAUSE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW DRG THE MRNG. SHOWERS WL LINGER INTO
THE AFTN BFR SYSTEM DEPARTS.

HIPRES WL ASSURE QUIET WX THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH THE IDEA THAT A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LITTLE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED AND NO THUNDER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING A MAINLY DRY SCENARIO FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT LOW CHC POPS
GOING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DESPITE SOME DOWNSTREAM DISAGREEMENT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME
TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 15Z. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THAT THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT-WED...SOME RESTRICTIONS AS SHOWERY FRONT PASSES
TUE...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS INTO WED ON BACK SIDE
OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...VFR.

LATE THU NGT-FRI... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
230 PM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
WITH AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 INCHES, THUS NO FIRE WX
CONCERNS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...JAB/MSE
AVIATION...MDP/MSE
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 211833
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
233 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS TUESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. BEHIND THAT FRONT, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING TO DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
120 PM UPDATE...
CHALLENGE FOR THE TONIGHT PD REVOLVES ARND HOW QUICKLY RAIN CAN MV
IN. STRONG WAA IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACRS CWA WITH TEMPS UP IN THE
70S IN THE FINGER LKS. TROFFING LOCATED ACRS CNTRL PART OF THE
NATION WL EVENTUALLY PLAY A ROLE IN HOW QUICKLY PCPN GETS HERE AND
HOW LONG IT WL LINGER.

AS OF NOW, WK LEAD S/WV LOCATED IN SRN IL AREA WL EJECT NEWD TWD CWA
OVRNGT. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCRS IN CLD CVR BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WL
NOT BE ASSOC WITH THIS WV, THUS ONLY A FEW HIT N MISS SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES EXPECTED THRU 12Z TUE ACRS WRN ZONES. HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE THAT LINE OF SHOWERS WL HV BARELY MVD INTO WRN NY BY 12Z.
WHILE THIS SEEMS A LITTLE FAR-FETCHED TO ME WL BACK OFF ON POPS TO
JUST 20 ACRS FAR WRN ZONES THRU DAYBREAK WITH MOST OF CWA RMNG DRY
TONIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLD CVR BROUGHT IN FM AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WL KEEP TEMPS FM
DROPPING MUCH INTO THE 40S BY 12Z TUE. SW FLOW WL CONT TO DRAW IN
SFC MOISTURE WITH DWPTS RISING INTO THE 40S BY MRNG. 1 INCH PW
VALUES NOW LOCATED ACRS THE MS RVR VLY WL BE DRAWN IN ON H8 WINDS
AND INCRS TO BTWN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCHES. 12Z GFS SEEMS TO HV
INITIALIZED TOO HIGH WITH PW VALUES, POSSIBLY ALLOWING MODEL TO BRING
PCPN INTO THE AREA TOO FAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS WL BE OVR THE AREA TUE MRNG AND CONT OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS CDFNT MVS THRU. HV TRIED TO NAIL DOWN TIMING OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACRS THE REGION MVG INTO FINGER LKS AREAS BY 16Z
THEN TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF CWA BY 21Z. EXPECT BASINWIDE
RAINFALL AVGS OF AROUND 0.25 INCHES DRG THE DAY TOMORROW. AS FOR
THUNDER, NAM IS INDICATING MORE INSTABILITY THAN GFS AND EURO ARE SO
WL LV MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF GRIDS. HWVR, CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLD RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT SOME POINT DRG THE AFTN. AFTN HIGHS RUN
THE GAMUT TO ARND 60 PER MAV AND ARND 70 PER MET. HV GONE SLIGHTLY
ABV MAV NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR 60S ACRS MOST OF THE REGION
THANKS TO SIGNIFICANT CLD CVR AND FROPA OCCURRING BTWN 18Z AND 00Z.

SHOWERS CONT ON TUE NGT AS UL TROF SWINGS THRU. 120+ KT SPEED MAX AT
H2 WL ENHANCE LIFT AFT MIDNIGHT TOMORROW NGT WITH CWA IN LFQ. WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GUSTS ON THE
ORDER OF 20-30KTS BY WED MRNG. TEMPS WL DIP INTO THE L/M 30S AND MAY
CAUSE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW DRG THE MRNG. SHOWERS WL LINGER INTO
THE AFTN BFR SYSTEM DEPARTS.

HIPRES WL ASSURE QUIET WX THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MILDER CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY...BUT THE
GENERALLY FLAT UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TO USHER IN SHOWERS FOR
FRIDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS THEN SUGGEST THE PATTERN IS
SHOWING HINTS AT SLOWING DOWN AND AMPLIFYING AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DO DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF SETTING UP A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY...BUT THE SIGNALS ARE THERE FOR A COOLER AND MORE
DREARY FEW DAYS WITH PASSING POSSIBLE SHOWERS AT TIMES RIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. CAN/T SAY WE ARE SETTING UP FOR A WASHOUT...BUT
THIS IS THE SEASON FOR CLOSED LOWS...AND THOSE INFAMOUS APRIL
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 15Z. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THAT THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT-WED...SOME RESTRICTIONS AS SHOWERY FRONT PASSES
TUE...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS INTO WED ON BACK SIDE
OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...VFR.

LATE THU NGT-FRI... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
230 PM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
WITH AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 INCHES, THUS NO FIRE WX
CONCERNS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...MDP/MSE
FIRE WEATHER...PVN





000
FXUS61 KBUF 211813
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...GIVING
WAY TO A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE EXITING INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES BENEATH
PATCHY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST
INLAND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR
THE LAKESHORES...WHERE THE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD GUST TO 20 MPH IN
SPOTS. ANY RADAR RETURNS ARE LIKELY VIRGA GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/SREF/GFS) IS FAIRLY
CLOSE IN TERMS OF TIMING...BUT THE CONSENSUS IS AN HOUR OR TWO
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED WITH THE UPPER TROF...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT
BUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW
HOURS...FIRST ENTERING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN
SWEEPING ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AROUND NOON BEFORE EXITING EAST
OF THE CWA LATE AFTERNOON. BOTH SURFACE BASED AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY APPEAR LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT...WHICH STILL SUGGESTS
THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ANY THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ABOUT A
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.

CLOUDS AND INCREASING WINDS SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
VERY LITTLE ON TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SLUG OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PULL
STEADILY OFF TO THE EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE DIMINISHING
TREND TO THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PIVOTS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PASSAGE OF MAIN MID LEVEL WAVE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL RESULT IN A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS AREA-WIDE WILL TARGET FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR BETTER COVERAGE TUESDAY NIGHT.
CRITICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST A LOW PROBABILITY OF A
MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST LOCATIONS TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CONTINUED LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION EAST OF THE REGION WILL
USHER IN DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE COLDER SIDE
OF THE TYPICAL MID APRIL SPECTRUM DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS BARELY REACHING 50. THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA PRECIPITATION FREE. DIURNALLY ENHANCED DAYTIME
CU/STRATO CU ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE IN LIGHT OF THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL BUILD A RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ALL 00/12Z MODEL PACKAGES ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF THE
EAST COAST ON FRIDAY BEING REPLACED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TROUGHINESS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LATE WEEK RIDGING AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING BACK UP TO NEAR LATE APRIL NORMALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE WESTERN TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND CENTERS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. IN A
SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT WE WILL SEE ON TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS. A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWEST AND WEST FLOW WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LEADING BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MID OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS
WESTERN NY BUT THE WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL NOT QUITE REACH THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE LOWS WILL STILL DIP INTO THE 30S.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT A LITTLE COOLER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY A NOW SLOWER MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF
COOL AIR WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER NEXT WEEKEND. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP REINFORCING COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
MAY DROP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS AND HILLTOPS WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT ONLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LOWER CIGS AND POSSIBLY VSBY TOWARD
DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...WITH MOST SITES LOWERING TO MVFR FOR 3 TO 6
HOURS. A PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
AT JHW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOME TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
EXIT OF THE FRONT...WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS LINGERING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OR
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE UNTIL WINDS INCREASE WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KOKX 211801
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
201 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING...THEN CROSSES THE TRI-
STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN IMPACTS THE REGION AT THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZES HAVE
DEVELOPED...MITIGATING FURTHER WARMTH ALONG THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY ALREADY ACHIEVED HERE. MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
HIGHS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR INTERIOR. DAYTIME MIXING CONVEYED BY
BUFKIT TO BE LIMITED TO NEAR TO JUST BELOW 950MB WITH HIGHER
MIXING TO NEAR 925-900 MB ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

OVERALL...SPLIT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CUTOFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AND QUASI ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
LOCAL REGION. A SLIGHT RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS IS KEEPING
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON OTHER THAN A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE
CUTOFF WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE. AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE. WITH THIS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
MORE OPTIMAL AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST
CONNECTICUT...WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGHER...SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WERE A BLEND OF 2/3 ECE AND 1/3 MET...FAVORING COLDER SIDE OF
MOS GUIDANCE.

700-500 HPA LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY...ALONG WITH
SURFACE-850 HPA COLD FRONT. GFS APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSIVE OUTLIER
WITH HOW FAST FRONT AND PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH...SO USED A
NON-GFS BLEND FOR THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH OUT...WITH MAINLY A SCT-BKN
MID DECK ACROSS THE REGION.

SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK INTO WESTERN ZONES EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. APPEARS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER MOST OF
NE NJ AND MAINLY W PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY - NAM HAS A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND BOTH NAM AND GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE TOTAL TOTALS AT KSWF GET TO 51 - SO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THOSE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
MARINE INFLUENCE FARTHER EAST SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THUNDER FROM
FORMING FARTHER EAST...AND SHOULD PROMOTE THE RAPID WEAKENING OF
ANY STRONGER CONVECTION WHICH WERE TO MOVE IN FROM THE W.

NOTING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7000 FT...LEVEL OF FREE
CONVECTION BELOW 1000 M...AND 500 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -16 TO
-18C WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT SOME SMALL TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.

FOR HIGHS TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 975-925 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS IN COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...AND INLAND SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING OR GETTING JUST ABOVE THE 70
DEGREE MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE MODELS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
EVENING AND WILL BE CLEAR OF EASTERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
GFS IS THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS AND HAS PRECIP ENDING PRETTY MUCH
FROM 00-06Z...BUT THE ECMWF/NAM/SREF/CMC ARE A BIT SLOWER AND ENDS
PRECIP A BUT LATER. EITHER WAY...WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS
EARLY...AND WILL TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE BY MIDNIGHT. WITH UPPER
TROUGH AND STRONG SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. SKIES CLEAR OUT
DURING THE DAY...AND THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS...RESULTING IN A
STRONG NW FLOW OF 20-30 MPH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH.

WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AS THE HIGH
BUILDS EAST...AND THEN WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY. GUSTY
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY.

THE HIGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THAT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FROM MAINLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

STRONG NW FLOW WILL USHER CAA INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
DAYS. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...TEMPS WARM BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S/40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN IN THE 40S AT NIGHT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING.

VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY.

SEA BREEZES ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT KJFK FROM 180 DEGS AT 13 KT BY 20Z. SSW
WINDS OF 5 KT OR LESS ARE FORECAST SUNSET-SUNRISE. SSW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR STRATUS AFT 06Z
TONIGHT AT KGON.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE TO 13Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE AFT-TUE NIGHT...SHRA BECOMING LIKELY WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. NW-N
WINDS G20-25KT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
.WED-THU NIGHT...VFR. NW-N WIND G25-30KT.
.FRI-SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS FRI AFTN - SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...STILL NO REMARKABLE CHANGES MADE TO MARINE
FORECAST WITH FORECAST STAYING ON TRACK.

A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS 10 KT OR LESS OVER ALL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE TO 10-15
KT OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS
SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO BRING SEAS TO 5 FT.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN HIGH
PRES BUILDS EAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
WINDS RAMP UP TO SCA LEVELS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...AND THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON EASTERN WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION - WIDESPREAD 1/2 INCH
OR MORE - IS LOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MPS
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...MALOIT/JM
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...MALOIT/JM/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MPS








000
FXUS61 KBGM 211751
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
151 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY TO THE AREA
TODAY...WITH FURTHER WARMING RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. BEHIND THAT FRONT...COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
120 PM UPDATE...
CHALLENGE FOR THE TONIGHT PD REVOLVES ARND HOW QUICKLY RAIN CAN MV
IN. STRONG WAA IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACRS CWA WITH TEMPS UP IN THE
70S IN THE FINGER LKS. TROFFING LOCATED ACRS CNTRL PART OF THE
NATION WL EVENTUALLY PLAY A ROLE IN HOW QUICKLY PCPN GETS HERE AND
HOW LONG IT WL LINGER.

AS OF NOW, WK LEAD S/WV LOCATED IN SRN IL AREA WL EJECT NEWD TWD CWA
OVRNGT. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCRS IN CLD CVR BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WL
NOT BE ASSOC WITH THIS WV, THUS ONLY A FEW HIT N MISS SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES EXPECTED THRU 12Z TUE ACRS WRN ZONES. HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE THAT LINE OF SHOWERS WL HV BARELY MVD INTO WRN NY BY 12Z.
WHILE THIS SEEMS A LITTLE FAR-FETCHED TO ME WL BACK OFF ON POPS TO
JUST 20 ACRS FAR WRN ZONES THRU DAYBREAK WITH MOST OF CWA RMNG DRY
TONIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLD CVR BROUGHT IN FM AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WL KEEP TEMPS FM
DROPPING MUCH INTO THE 40S BY 12Z TUE. SW FLOW WL CONT TO DRAW IN
SFC MOISTURE WITH DWPTS RISING INTO THE 40S BY MRNG. 1 INCH PW
VALUES NOW LOCATED ACRS THE MS RVR VLY WL BE DRAWN IN ON H8 WINDS
AND INCRS TO BTWN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCHES. 12Z GFS SEEMS TO HV
INITIALIZED TOO HIGH WITH PW VALUES, POSSIBLY ALLOWING MODEL TO BRING
PCPN INTO THE AREA TOO FAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT AND SHARPENING UPPER TROF ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE
BEEN REALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE DRIVING FEATURES...SO NOW IT IS
JUST A MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING. LATEST RUNS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MAYBE JUST A CHANCE FOR SOME LEADING
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DURING THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS...BUT BY LATE
TUESDAY MORNING RAIN WILL BE SPREADING QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE
FINGER LAKES AND TWIN TIER REGIONS. WE EXPECT THE PRECIP TO PROBABLY
NOT START IN THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCES LINGER IN ANY ONE AREA FOR ABOUT 3-4 HOURS BEFORE
MOVING EAST BY EARLY EVENING. SOME MODEL INDICES SUGGEST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THIS LOOKS OVERDONE,
PARTICULARLY BY THE NAM MODEL. CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR
TWO GIVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING...BUT THAT/S NOT WORTH
THE FULL BLOWN MENTION OF THUNDER...STORMS.

MOVING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE LEAVES
THE AREA BY 00Z...BUT SHARP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND DESTABILIZING
LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING
INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT DROP BELOW ZERO
AT 925-850 MB WHICH WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLY SOME WET
SNOW FLAKES. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS WHERE TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO DIP BELOW ABOUT 35 DEGREES. THIS WAS CONFINED MAINLY
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
TRENDS OFFER UP DRYING OF THE TOTAL ATMOSPHERE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EXISTS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE WITH LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP. SFC-MID
LEVEL RIDGING IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL BY THURSDAY.

BECAUSE OF THE SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE FROM TUES-WEDS...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL SHORT OF THE UPPER 50S NORMALITY ON
WEDS...BUT RECOVER NICELY ON THURSDAY WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND
GRADUAL WARM ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY DAYS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MILDER CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY...BUT THE
GENERALLY FLAT UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TO USHER IN SHOWERS FOR
FRIDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS THEN SUGGEST THE PATTERN IS
SHOWING HINTS AT SLOWING DOWN AND AMPLIFYING AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DO DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF SETTING UP A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY...BUT THE SIGNALS ARE THERE FOR A COOLER AND MORE
DREARY FEW DAYS WITH PASSING POSSIBLE SHOWERS AT TIMES RIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. CAN/T SAY WE ARE SETTING UP FOR A WASHOUT...BUT
THIS IS THE SEASON FOR CLOSED LOWS...AND THOSE INFAMOUS APRIL
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 15Z. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THAT THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT-WED...SOME RESTRICTIONS AS SHOWERY FRONT PASSES
TUE...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS INTO WED ON BACK SIDE
OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...VFR.

LATE THU NGT-FRI... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
415 AM UPDATE...
AS WITH SUNDAY...IT WILL BE VERY DRY TODAY YET WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT. A LIMITED INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE WIPED OUT BY FURTHER
WARMING...SO IN THE END RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN
MAINLY THE 20S PERCENT RANGE. SUSTAINED WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE UNDER 10 MPH...AND EVEN PEAK GUSTS WILL
ONLY BARELY ECLIPSE THAT AT TIMES. GIVEN THESE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...CONTINUED DRYING OF FUELS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
HOWEVER...A GOOD WETTING RAIN IS INBOUND FOR TUESDAY COURTESY OF A
PASSING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUT A HOLD ON FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...MDP/MSE
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KALY 211741 RRA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
139 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY AS IT
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 138 PM EDT...ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR TODAY WITH THIS UPDATE.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND PLEASANT SPRING DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE MORE HIGH CLOUDS AROUND THAN YESTERDAY AND THE
BREEZE OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER COMPARED TO
SUNDAY...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
APPROACHING 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES LOOK MILDER THAN SUNDAY. THEY ARE
PROJECTED TO REACH 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...WITH 60-65 DEGREES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME EXTRA
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BUT SHOULD NOT
TEMPER THE WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MN. ITS
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EXTENDED TO ITS EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY HEAD EAST. BY TONIGHT...IT WILL SPREAD A FEW
MORE CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION BUT ALL AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD BE EVEN MORE PERSISTENT THAN TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE 40S IN MOST
PLACE...GENERALLY IN THE 40-45 RANGE.

TUESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS INTO OUR AREA. PW VALUES LOOK TO
BRIEFLY SPIKE TO NEARLY AN INCH AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. A
PRETTY SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE SHOULD HELP WRING OUT
THIS MOISTURE AS SHOWERS DEVELOP. WE CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
FEATURE.

WE CHECKED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND MOST MODELS INDICATED LITTLE
OR NO INSTABILITY. FOR NOW...WE WILL EXCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER...BUT LATER FORECASTERS MIGHT DECIDED TO ADD THUNDER AT SOME
POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY/S...60S TO AROUND
70...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20
MPH...SHIFTING TO THE WEST BY DAY/ END WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

COOLER AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
H850 TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL CREST NEAR +10C AHEAD OF IT...WILL DROP
TO ABOUT -5C BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT COULD ACTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY
LIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE AN INCH OR LESS COULD
ACCUMULATE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BACK TO THE 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...40-45 IN MOST VALLEY AREAS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL BE 50-55 IN MOST VALLEYS AREAS (UPPER 50S MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD)...BUT ONLY 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MAINE...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT STILL LOOKS BREEZY. THIS BREEZE WILL PREVENT OF FREE-FALL OF
TEMPERATURES BUT IT WILL TURN CHILLY NEVERTHELESS. LOOK FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS UNDER A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY TO BE IN THE LOWER
30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A RATHER PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
WESTERLIES WHICH TRANSITIONS TOWARD HIGHER AMPLITUDE BLOCKING ACROSS
NOAM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS /EVEN SOME SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE TERRAIN/ AS TEMPERATURES
BEGIN NEAR NORMAL AND THEN SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR SPECIFICS...
A RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SEASONABLE DAY
FOR THE REGION WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGHER AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER LATER IN THE DAY.  AS A GOOD DEAL OF LATE APRIL SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED AND H850 TEMPS MODERATING FROM NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND 0C BY DAYS END...MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
50S WITH AROUND 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
EXHIBIT SIGNS OF BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES...ITS
ATTENDING COLD FRONT /TRANSITIONING TOWARD OCCLUSION/ WILL BE
APPROACHING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  AS PER THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TOO WARM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS AVERAGE IN THE 40S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 50S
AND LOWER HALF OF THE 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGINS TO SHOW
DEVIATIONS AS THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGHER AMPLIFIED AND RATHER
BLOCKY.  TRANSITIONS INTO THESE SYNOPTIC FLOWS ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR
MODELS AS WE ATTEMPT TO ASCERTAIN INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES THAT WILL
IMPACT OUR WEATHER.  THE GFS WANTS TO DEVELOP A CUT OFF LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE DGEX.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND COLDER
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO SUB ZERO H850 TEMPS.
WPC SEEMS TO FOLLOW THIS IDEA AS WE TOO WILL LEAN IN THIS
DIRECTION.  WITH STILL A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR SOME
WINTRY TYPE PRECIP WILL EXIST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY AT
NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK TOWARD FREEZING.  DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE TERRAIN AND LOWER HALF OF THE 50S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
18Z TUESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER ON THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ONLY SITE
WHERE VCSH WILL BE MENTIONED BEFORE 18Z IS AT KGFL...WHERE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD DEVELOP. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10
KT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUMS
IN THE 20S...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 60 TO 80
PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUMS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT MONDAY
NIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. A SOUTH WIND WILL BE 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE
BACK UP TO 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS LOW
PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY MOVES TO OUR EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK CONTINUES.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
FLOOD STAGE TODAY SOMETIME AFTER 2 PM.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV












000
FXUS61 KALY 211741
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1039 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY AS IT
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 138 PM EDT...ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR TODAY WITH THIS UPDATE.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND PLEASANT SPRING DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE MORE HIGH CLOUDS AROUND THAN YESTERDAY AND THE
BREEZE OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER COMPARED TO
SUNDAY...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
APPROACHING 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES LOOK MILDER THAN SUNDAY. THEY ARE
PROJECTED TO REACH 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...WITH 60-65 DEGREES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME EXTRA
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BUT SHOULD NOT
TEMPER THE WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MN. ITS
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EXTENDED TO ITS EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY HEAD EAST. BY TONIGHT...IT WILL SPREAD A FEW
MORE CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION BUT ALL AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD BE EVEN MORE PERSISTENT THAN TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE 40S IN MOST
PLACE...GENERALLY IN THE 40-45 RANGE.

TUESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS INTO OUR AREA. PW VALUES LOOK TO
BRIEFLY SPIKE TO NEARLY AN INCH AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. A
PRETTY SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE SHOULD HELP WRING OUT
THIS MOISTURE AS SHOWERS DEVELOP. WE CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
FEATURE.

WE CHECKED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND MOST MODELS INDICATED LITTLE
OR NO INSTABILITY. FOR NOW...WE WILL EXCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER...BUT LATER FORECASTERS MIGHT DECIDED TO ADD THUNDER AT SOME
POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY/S...60S TO AROUND
70...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20
MPH...SHIFTING TO THE WEST BY DAY/ END WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

COOLER AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
H850 TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL CREST NEAR +10C AHEAD OF IT...WILL DROP
TO ABOUT -5C BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT COULD ACTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY
LIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE AN INCH OR LESS COULD
ACCUMULATE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BACK TO THE 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...40-45 IN MOST VALLEY AREAS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL BE 50-55 IN MOST VALLEYS AREAS (UPPER 50S MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD)...BUT ONLY 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MAINE...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT STILL LOOKS BREEZY. THIS BREEZE WILL PREVENT OF FREE-FALL OF
TEMPERATURES BUT IT WILL TURN CHILLY NEVERTHELESS. LOOK FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS UNDER A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY TO BE IN THE LOWER
30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A RATHER PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
WESTERLIES WHICH TRANSITIONS TOWARD HIGHER AMPLITUDE BLOCKING ACROSS
NOAM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS /EVEN SOME SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE TERRAIN/ AS TEMPERATURES
BEGIN NEAR NORMAL AND THEN SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR SPECIFICS...
A RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SEASONABLE DAY
FOR THE REGION WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGHER AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER LATER IN THE DAY.  AS A GOOD DEAL OF LATE APRIL SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED AND H850 TEMPS MODERATING FROM NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND 0C BY DAYS END...MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
50S WITH AROUND 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
EXHIBIT SIGNS OF BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES...ITS
ATTENDING COLD FRONT /TRANSITIONING TOWARD OCCLUSION/ WILL BE
APPROACHING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  AS PER THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TOO WARM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS AVERAGE IN THE 40S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 50S
AND LOWER HALF OF THE 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGINS TO SHOW
DEVIATIONS AS THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGHER AMPLIFIED AND RATHER
BLOCKY.  TRANSITIONS INTO THESE SYNOPTIC FLOWS ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR
MODELS AS WE ATTEMPT TO ASCERTAIN INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES THAT WILL
IMPACT OUR WEATHER.  THE GFS WANTS TO DEVELOP A CUT OFF LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE DGEX.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND COLDER
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO SUB ZERO H850 TEMPS.
WPC SEEMS TO FOLLOW THIS IDEA AS WE TOO WILL LEAN IN THIS
DIRECTION.  WITH STILL A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR SOME
WINTRY TYPE PRECIP WILL EXIST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY AT
NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK TOWARD FREEZING.  DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE TERRAIN AND LOWER HALF OF THE 50S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
18Z TUESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER ON THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ONLY SITE
WHERE VCSH WILL BE MENTIONED BEFORE 18Z IS AT KGFL...WHERE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD DEVELOP. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10
KT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUMS
IN THE 20S...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 60 TO 80
PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUMS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT MONDAY
NIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. A SOUTH WIND WILL BE 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE
BACK UP TO 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS LOW
PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY MOVES TO OUR EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK CONTINUES.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
FLOOD STAGE TODAY SOMETIME AFTER 2 PM.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV











000
FXUS61 KBTV 211733
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY...THOUGH CLOUDIER THAN YESTERDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED ZONE FORECAST SENT TO REFLECT
CURRENT CLD COVER AND TEMP TRENDS. EXPECTING A FINAL SURGE OF CLDS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTNOON. LATEST VIS SATELLITE SHOWS
AREA SLOWLY MVG THRU THE ST LAW VALLEY/WESTERN DACKS...W/ SCT
CLDS ELSEWHERE. SOME CLRING BEHIND THIS BUT AFTNOON HRS
PROGRESSING WITH LESS TIME TO JUMP TO REACH THE 70F MARK. HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPS IN N NY TO BRING IT CLOSE...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE CVLY. REST OF CWA M/U60S WITH SOME SPOT 70F POSSIBLE...BUT IS
DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS BKN/OVC DECK MVG EAST IN N NY
ATTM. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD TO WINDS...OTHERWISE REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WIDESPREAD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...10-20 MPH ALONG THE FRONT. MAIN PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY AROUND A
HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT TRICKY FOR TUESDAY...JUST FIGURING OUT WHEN MAX TEMPS
WILL BE ACHIEVED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS A VERY SLOW MOVER.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS FROM NEAR THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AT 12Z...AT THE NY VT BORDER BY 18Z...AND THEN
EAST OF VT AT 00Z. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN TONIGHT AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT. MAX TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL START
RELATIVELY PLEASANT AND THEN TURN UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
AREA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THOUGH SO STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AND THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING
OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM RADIATING EFFICIENTLY...BUT WILL STILL FALL TO BELOW
NORMAL LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 20S AND 30S THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION ENSUES.

BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SO
WE`LL BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES BACK UPWARD...IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE LOW WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT STICKS
AROUND...BUT MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY AS
WELL...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE AS IT PULLS AWAY. LOWS
FRI/SAT NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH HIGHS SAT/SUN IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A WEAK SFC WARM FRNT ACRS OUR NORTHERN TAF
SITES THIS AFTN WL CONT TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION VCSH AT BTV/PBG FOR
THIS POTENTIAL WITH A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 01-04 FOR -RA AT MSS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THRU 18Z
TUESDAY. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNTS THIS
AFTN...WL BECOME LIGHT MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN BY THIS EVENING. SFC
COLD FRNT APPROACHES MSS BY 15Z TUESDAY...WITH AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS BTWN 18Z TUES
AND 03Z WEDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE OF PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WL DEVELOP BY 03Z
WEDS. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS
NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBGM 211724
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
124 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY TO THE AREA
TODAY...WITH FURTHER WARMING RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. BEHIND THAT FRONT...COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
120 PM UPDATE...
CHALLENGE FOR THE TONIGHT PD REVOLVES ARND HOW QUICKLY RAIN CAN MV
IN. STRONG WAA IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACRS CWA WITH TEMPS UP IN THE
70S IN THE FINGER LKS. TROFFING LOCATED ACRS CNTRL PART OF THE
NATION WL EVENTUALLY PLAY A ROLE IN HOW QUICKLY PCPN GETS HERE AND
HOW LONG IT WL LINGER.

AS OF NOW, WK LEAD S/WV LOCATED IN SRN IL AREA WL EJECT NEWD TWD CWA
OVRNGT. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCRS IN CLD CVR BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WL
NOT BE ASSOC WITH THIS WV, THUS ONLY A FEW HIT N MISS SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES EXPECTED THRU 12Z TUE ACRS WRN ZONES. HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE THAT LINE OF SHOWERS WL HV BARELY MVD INTO WRN NY BY 12Z.
WHILE THIS SEEMS A LITTLE FAR-FETCHED TO ME WL BACK OFF ON POPS TO
JUST 20 ACRS FAR WRN ZONES THRU DAYBREAK WITH MOST OF CWA RMNG DRY
TONIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLD CVR BROUGHT IN FM AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WL KEEP TEMPS FM
DROPPING MUCH INTO THE 40S BY 12Z TUE. SW FLOW WL CONT TO DRAW IN
SFC MOISTURE WITH DWPTS RISING INTO THE 40S BY MRNG. 1 INCH PW
VALUES NOW LOCATED ACRS THE MS RVR VLY WL BE DRAWN IN ON H8 WINDS
AND INCRS TO BTWN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCHES. 12Z GFS SEEMS TO HV
INITIALIZED TOO HIGH WITH PW VALUES, POSSIBLY ALLOWING MODEL TO BRING
PCPN INTO THE AREA TOO FAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT AND SHARPENING UPPER TROF ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE
BEEN REALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE DRIVING FEATURES...SO NOW IT IS
JUST A MATTER OF FINE TUNING THE TIMING. LATEST RUNS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MAYBE JUST A CHANCE FOR SOME LEADING
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DURING THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS...BUT BY LATE
TUESDAY MORNING RAIN WILL BE SPREADING QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE
FINGER LAKES AND TWIN TIER REGIONS. WE EXPECT THE PRECIP TO PROBABLY
NOT START IN THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCES LINGER IN ANY ONE AREA FOR ABOUT 3-4 HOURS BEFORE
MOVING EAST BY EARLY EVENING. SOME MODEL INDICES SUGGEST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THIS LOOKS OVERDONE,
PARTICULARLY BY THE NAM MODEL. CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR
TWO GIVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING...BUT THAT/S NOT WORTH
THE FULL BLOWN MENTION OF THUNDER...STORMS.

MOVING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE LEAVES
THE AREA BY 00Z...BUT SHARP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND DESTABILIZING
LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING
INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT DROP BELOW ZERO
AT 925-850 MB WHICH WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLY SOME WET
SNOW FLAKES. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS WHERE TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO DIP BELOW ABOUT 35 DEGREES. THIS WAS CONFINED MAINLY
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
TRENDS OFFER UP DRYING OF THE TOTAL ATMOSPHERE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EXISTS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE WITH LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP. SFC-MID
LEVEL RIDGING IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL BY THURSDAY.

BECAUSE OF THE SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE FROM TUES-WEDS...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL SHORT OF THE UPPER 50S NORMALITY ON
WEDS...BUT RECOVER NICELY ON THURSDAY WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND
GRADUAL WARM ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY DAYS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND MILDER CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY...BUT THE
GENERALLY FLAT UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TO USHER IN SHOWERS FOR
FRIDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS THEN SUGGEST THE PATTERN IS
SHOWING HINTS AT SLOWING DOWN AND AMPLIFYING AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DO DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF SETTING UP A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY...BUT THE SIGNALS ARE THERE FOR A COOLER AND MORE
DREARY FEW DAYS WITH PASSING POSSIBLE SHOWERS AT TIMES RIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. CAN/T SAY WE ARE SETTING UP FOR A WASHOUT...BUT
THIS IS THE SEASON FOR CLOSED LOWS...AND THOSE INFAMOUS APRIL
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH 12Z TUE. ONLY PATCHY HIGH THIN
CLOUDS ABOVE 12 KFT AGL THROUGH 00Z TUE...THEN SOME THICKENING OF
THOSE HIGH CLOUDS 00Z-12Z TUE AHEAD OF INCOMING SYSTEM YET STILL
MAINLY AROUND OR ABOVE 10 KFT. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND
EARLY WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KTS DURING THE DAY...ONLY
TO REVERT BACK TO LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH TONIGHT. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY 12Z TUE...BUT
ANY IMPACTS FOR OUR TERMINALS WILL WAIT FOR DURING THE DAY TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-WED...SOME RESTRICTIONS AS SHOWERY FRONT PASSES TUE...THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS INTO WED ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...VFR.

LATE THU NGT-FRI... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
415 AM UPDATE...
AS WITH SUNDAY...IT WILL BE VERY DRY TODAY YET WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT. A LIMITED INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE WIPED OUT BY FURTHER
WARMING...SO IN THE END RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN
MAINLY THE 20S PERCENT RANGE. SUSTAINED WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE UNDER 10 MPH...AND EVEN PEAK GUSTS WILL
ONLY BARELY ECLIPSE THAT AT TIMES. GIVEN THESE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...CONTINUED DRYING OF FUELS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
HOWEVER...A GOOD WETTING RAIN IS INBOUND FOR TUESDAY COURTESY OF A
PASSING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PUT A HOLD ON FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KBTV 211715
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY...THOUGH CLOUDIER THAN YESTERDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED ZONE FORECAST SENT TO REFLECT
CURRENT CLD COVER AND TEMP TRENDS. EXPECTING A FINAL SURGE OF CLDS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTNOON. LATEST VIS SATELLITE SHOWS
AREA SLOWLY MVG THRU THE ST LAW VALLEY/WESTERN DACKS...W/ SCT
CLDS ELSEWHERE. SOME CLRING BEHIND THIS BUT AFTNOON HRS
PROGRESSING WITH LESS TIME TO JUMP TO REACH THE 70F MARK. HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPS IN N NY TO BRING IT CLOSE...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE CVLY. REST OF CWA M/U60S WITH SOME SPOT 70F POSSIBLE...BUT IS
DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS BKN/OVC DECK MVG EAST IN N NY
ATTM. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD TO WINDS...OTHERWISE REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WIDESPREAD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...10-20 MPH ALONG THE FRONT. MAIN PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY AROUND A
HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT TRICKY FOR TUESDAY...JUST FIGURING OUT WHEN MAX TEMPS
WILL BE ACHIEVED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS A VERY SLOW MOVER.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS FROM NEAR THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AT 12Z...AT THE NY VT BORDER BY 18Z...AND THEN
EAST OF VT AT 00Z. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN TONIGHT AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT. MAX TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL START
RELATIVELY PLEASANT AND THEN TURN UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
AREA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THOUGH SO STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AND THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING
OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM RADIATING EFFICIENTLY...BUT WILL STILL FALL TO BELOW
NORMAL LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 20S AND 30S THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION ENSUES.

BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SO
WE`LL BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES BACK UPWARD...IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE LOW WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT STICKS
AROUND...BUT MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY AS
WELL...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE AS IT PULLS AWAY. LOWS
FRI/SAT NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH HIGHS SAT/SUN IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE CONTINUED MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT CEILINGS
REMAINING AT 7000 FEET OR HIGHER. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
AFTER 01Z TONIGHT AT MSS/SLK AND 04Z AT PBG/BTV. COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED SO ONLY PUT VCSH IN FOR NOW. SURFACE WINDS TURN
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH 10-20 KNOT GUSTS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DECREASING BACK TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI









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