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000
FXUS61 KBGM 011805
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. THE
NORTHEAST U.S. WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES ARE SEEN IN THIS FLOW PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY... THE AIRMASS
IS MODERATELY DRY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER WEAK
RANGING FROM AROUND 5-6 DEGREES C PER KM. THE RESULT OF THIS
PATTERN HAS BEEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE POCONOS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THESE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT THEN
ANOTHER PARTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS.

BEFORE THE THUNDER THREAT MONDAY HOWEVER...WE WERE ABLE TO REMOVE
WHAT REMAINED OF THE SHOWER-THUNDER CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING...AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR OUR REGION
TO BE BETWEEN EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT. COMBINE THAT WITH AN
ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL BE INITIALLY FAIRLY DRY...AND AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS-THUNDER SUNDAY LOOKS MINIMAL. CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS ONE OR MORE
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO MOISTENING AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SUNDAY NIGHT.

SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK INCLUDES OUR ENTIRE AREA IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS QUITE WARRANTED.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH AND
GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH...YET A MORE-THAN-ADEQUATE MIX OF
BOTH OVER OUR REGION. MODELS DEPICT OUR REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET...AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
/40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER/. UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN TIMING
OF INITIAL SHORTWAVES...THE CLOUD COVER OF WHICH COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY...BUT OVERALL THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE MONDAY COULD
BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...SUGGESTS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE CELLS. HOWEVER...SOME
HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL SINCE A THICKER PORTION OF THE CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXISTS WELL ALOFT INTO HAIL-GROWTH TEMPERATURES
/PARTICULARLY IN THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM SOUNDINGS/.

SHOWERS-STORMS WILL EXIT MONDAY EVENING...LEAVING THINGS FAIRLY
QUIET DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...RESULTING
IN LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL...THOUGH A FURTHER DECREASE IN ALREADY
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR SOME PERIODS. FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT LITTLE PRECIP UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH
CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT CU WILL COVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES FROM 5-6 KFT.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z... THEN ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AROUND 5-6
KFT. WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING
VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT THEN SW AT AROUND 10 KTS
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MSE/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 011805
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. THE
NORTHEAST U.S. WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES ARE SEEN IN THIS FLOW PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY... THE AIRMASS
IS MODERATELY DRY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER WEAK
RANGING FROM AROUND 5-6 DEGREES C PER KM. THE RESULT OF THIS
PATTERN HAS BEEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE POCONOS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THESE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT THEN
ANOTHER PARTLY SUNNY AND MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS.

BEFORE THE THUNDER THREAT MONDAY HOWEVER...WE WERE ABLE TO REMOVE
WHAT REMAINED OF THE SHOWER-THUNDER CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING...AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR OUR REGION
TO BE BETWEEN EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT. COMBINE THAT WITH AN
ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL BE INITIALLY FAIRLY DRY...AND AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS-THUNDER SUNDAY LOOKS MINIMAL. CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS ONE OR MORE
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO MOISTENING AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SUNDAY NIGHT.

SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK INCLUDES OUR ENTIRE AREA IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS QUITE WARRANTED.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH AND
GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH...YET A MORE-THAN-ADEQUATE MIX OF
BOTH OVER OUR REGION. MODELS DEPICT OUR REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET...AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
/40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER/. UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN TIMING
OF INITIAL SHORTWAVES...THE CLOUD COVER OF WHICH COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY...BUT OVERALL THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE MONDAY COULD
BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...SUGGESTS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE CELLS. HOWEVER...SOME
HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL SINCE A THICKER PORTION OF THE CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXISTS WELL ALOFT INTO HAIL-GROWTH TEMPERATURES
/PARTICULARLY IN THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM SOUNDINGS/.

SHOWERS-STORMS WILL EXIT MONDAY EVENING...LEAVING THINGS FAIRLY
QUIET DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...RESULTING
IN LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL...THOUGH A FURTHER DECREASE IN ALREADY
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR SOME PERIODS. FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT LITTLE PRECIP UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH
CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT CU WILL COVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES FROM 5-6 KFT.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z... THEN ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AROUND 5-6
KFT. WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING
VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT THEN SW AT AROUND 10 KTS
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MSE/PCF


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 011742
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
142 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND MOVE
ACROSS TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE
AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE UPGRADED RIP CURRENT RISK TO HIGH BASED ON BEACH
REPORTS...AND CONTINUED COMBO OF INCOMING 3-4 FT LONG PERIOD
SWELLS AND SW WINDS 15 KT INTO EARLY EVENING.

LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR/RAP AND NCAR WRF
ENSEMBLE IS EMPHASIZING POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION MORE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH AT LEAST ISOLD COVERAGE...AND IN
PARTICULAR ACROSS SOUTHERN CT WITH SCT COVERAGE. POP HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL SO HAVE WORDED FCST
TO MENTION SHOWER OR TSTM. GIVEN DRY MID LEVELS AND SUB-CLOUD
LAYER AND MID LEVEL FLOW UP TO 40 KT...SHOWERS/STORMS ARE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE REINFORCED FROM TIME TO TIME AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND A VORTEX OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

THE FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN
NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING
ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A THERMAL/PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH DURING THE AFTN AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN
14-16C. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...LOWER 90S IN THE NY/NJ METRO AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THESE VALUES DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH ANY SHRA/TSTM
ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND PUSHING E.

WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING
A FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AS THE SECOND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. SW FLOW AND THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING THE HUMIDITY BACK BRIEFLY. CHC POPS
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR MON AFTN/NIGHT. WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SIMILAR BULK SHEAR TO TODAY AND BETTER
UPPER SUPPORT THERE COULD BE A SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AROUND MAINLY N AND W OF NYC.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE EXIST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT
IT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA SOMETIME MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT
WITH A LOW CHC OF POPS PRECEDING IT ON TUE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED GUSTY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z OR SO. HARD TO
PINPOINT WHERE THESE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE
TO...BUT ANY AIRPORT COULD SEE A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
21-23Z. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED BEFORE BECOMING
LESS FREQUENT BY 21-23Z. WINDS LIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING
AS THEY TURN TO THE NW BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

BETTER CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SUN AFTERNOON...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS LATE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.
.THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS WERE NOT MEETING SCA CRITERIA YET...BUT SHOULD DO SO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO MUCH OF TONIGHT E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 5-6 FT. SCA START TIME PUSHED FORWARD TO 4
PM...AND END TIME TO 2 AM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS ON MONDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW



000
FXUS61 KOKX 011742
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
142 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND MOVE
ACROSS TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE
AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE UPGRADED RIP CURRENT RISK TO HIGH BASED ON BEACH
REPORTS...AND CONTINUED COMBO OF INCOMING 3-4 FT LONG PERIOD
SWELLS AND SW WINDS 15 KT INTO EARLY EVENING.

LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR/RAP AND NCAR WRF
ENSEMBLE IS EMPHASIZING POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION MORE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH AT LEAST ISOLD COVERAGE...AND IN
PARTICULAR ACROSS SOUTHERN CT WITH SCT COVERAGE. POP HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL SO HAVE WORDED FCST
TO MENTION SHOWER OR TSTM. GIVEN DRY MID LEVELS AND SUB-CLOUD
LAYER AND MID LEVEL FLOW UP TO 40 KT...SHOWERS/STORMS ARE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE REINFORCED FROM TIME TO TIME AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND A VORTEX OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

THE FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN
NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING
ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A THERMAL/PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH DURING THE AFTN AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN
14-16C. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...LOWER 90S IN THE NY/NJ METRO AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THESE VALUES DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH ANY SHRA/TSTM
ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND PUSHING E.

WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING
A FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AS THE SECOND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. SW FLOW AND THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING THE HUMIDITY BACK BRIEFLY. CHC POPS
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR MON AFTN/NIGHT. WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SIMILAR BULK SHEAR TO TODAY AND BETTER
UPPER SUPPORT THERE COULD BE A SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AROUND MAINLY N AND W OF NYC.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE EXIST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT
IT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA SOMETIME MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT
WITH A LOW CHC OF POPS PRECEDING IT ON TUE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED GUSTY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z OR SO. HARD TO
PINPOINT WHERE THESE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE
TO...BUT ANY AIRPORT COULD SEE A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
21-23Z. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED BEFORE BECOMING
LESS FREQUENT BY 21-23Z. WINDS LIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING
AS THEY TURN TO THE NW BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

BETTER CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SUN AFTERNOON...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS LATE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.
.THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS WERE NOT MEETING SCA CRITERIA YET...BUT SHOULD DO SO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO MUCH OF TONIGHT E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 5-6 FT. SCA START TIME PUSHED FORWARD TO 4
PM...AND END TIME TO 2 AM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS ON MONDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 011738
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
138 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1246 PM EDT SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS
VERMONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH
WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED
INTO A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 800 TO 1600 J/KG PRESENTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SFC-06KM SHEAR
VALUES WERE HIGH EARLY TODAY BUT HAVE BEEN DECREASING THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS...CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
WITH LATEST UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO REFLECT RECENT
TRENDS AND EXPECTATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. ALSO ADDED SOME
ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLY
SLIGHTTO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING
GENERALLY THROUGH THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST
NORMS. CERTAINLY NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AT KSLK AND KMPV. FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS VT. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE, FEW-SCT 040-080 WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. HAVE LIMITED
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT TO KSLK AND KMPV DUE TO DECREASING CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DECREASING DEWPOINTS.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG
POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...JMG



000
FXUS61 KBGM 011738
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
138 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
TODAY WITH OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1115 AM... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING EAST FROM THE HUSON VALLEY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. 12Z BUF SOUNDING IS LOOKING FAIRLY DRY WITH A WARM NOSE
NEAR 500 MB ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION NAM IS FORECASTING SOME VERY SMALL ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER NE PA AND SOUTHERN NY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COVERAGE LESS THAN 25 PCT. ALL OF THESE FACTORS POINT TOWARD A
LOW CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH POPS
MAINLY 20 TO 30 PCT FOR NORTHEAST WHERE DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN
THE LOWER 60S LATE THIS MORNING... AND MORE LIKE MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL NY WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH NEAR 80 IN MOST PLACES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

0645 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/POP/SKY
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

3 AM UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA CURRENTLY AND BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
NY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING.

FOR THE DAY TODAY, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO
TAKE HOLD IN RESPONSE TO COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BEHIND DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH EVEN THE NAM INDICATING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE. ALSO, A LAYER OF WARM AIR IN MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE UPSHOT IS ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NY. CERTAINLY NOT ALL DAY RAIN FOR
ANYONE WITH THE DAY GENERALLY FEATURING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S WITH CONTINUING COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER THE AREA UNDER SKIES WHICH
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS.

BEFORE THE THUNDER THREAT MONDAY HOWEVER...WE WERE ABLE TO REMOVE
WHAT REMAINED OF THE SHOWER-THUNDER CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING...AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR OUR REGION
TO BE BETWEEN EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT. COMBINE THAT WITH AN
ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL BE INITIALLY FAIRLY DRY...AND AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS-THUNDER SUNDAY LOOKS MINIMAL. CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS ONE OR MORE
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO MOISTENING AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SUNDAY NIGHT.

SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK INCLUDES OUR ENTIRE AREA IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS QUITE WARRANTED.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH AND
GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH...YET A MORE-THAN-ADEQUATE MIX OF
BOTH OVER OUR REGION. MODELS DEPICT OUR REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET...AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
/40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER/. UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN TIMING
OF INITIAL SHORTWAVES...THE CLOUD COVER OF WHICH COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY...BUT OVERALL THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE MONDAY COULD
BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...SUGGESTS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE CELLS. HOWEVER...SOME
HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL SINCE A THICKER PORTION OF THE CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXISTS WELL ALOFT INTO HAIL-GROWTH TEMPERATURES
/PARTICULARLY IN THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM SOUNDINGS/.

SHOWERS-STORMS WILL EXIT MONDAY EVENING...LEAVING THINGS FAIRLY
QUIET DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...RESULTING
IN LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL...THOUGH A FURTHER DECREASE IN ALREADY
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR SOME PERIODS. FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT LITTLE PRECIP UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH
CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT CU WILL COVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES FROM 5-6 KFT.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z... THEN ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AROUND 5-6
KFT. WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING
VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT THEN SW AT AROUND 10 KTS
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MSE/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 011738
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
138 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
TODAY WITH OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1115 AM... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING EAST FROM THE HUSON VALLEY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. 12Z BUF SOUNDING IS LOOKING FAIRLY DRY WITH A WARM NOSE
NEAR 500 MB ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION NAM IS FORECASTING SOME VERY SMALL ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER NE PA AND SOUTHERN NY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COVERAGE LESS THAN 25 PCT. ALL OF THESE FACTORS POINT TOWARD A
LOW CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH POPS
MAINLY 20 TO 30 PCT FOR NORTHEAST WHERE DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN
THE LOWER 60S LATE THIS MORNING... AND MORE LIKE MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL NY WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH NEAR 80 IN MOST PLACES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

0645 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/POP/SKY
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

3 AM UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA CURRENTLY AND BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
NY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING.

FOR THE DAY TODAY, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO
TAKE HOLD IN RESPONSE TO COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BEHIND DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH EVEN THE NAM INDICATING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE. ALSO, A LAYER OF WARM AIR IN MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE UPSHOT IS ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NY. CERTAINLY NOT ALL DAY RAIN FOR
ANYONE WITH THE DAY GENERALLY FEATURING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S WITH CONTINUING COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER THE AREA UNDER SKIES WHICH
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS.

BEFORE THE THUNDER THREAT MONDAY HOWEVER...WE WERE ABLE TO REMOVE
WHAT REMAINED OF THE SHOWER-THUNDER CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING...AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR OUR REGION
TO BE BETWEEN EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT. COMBINE THAT WITH AN
ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL BE INITIALLY FAIRLY DRY...AND AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS-THUNDER SUNDAY LOOKS MINIMAL. CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS ONE OR MORE
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO MOISTENING AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SUNDAY NIGHT.

SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK INCLUDES OUR ENTIRE AREA IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS QUITE WARRANTED.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH AND
GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH...YET A MORE-THAN-ADEQUATE MIX OF
BOTH OVER OUR REGION. MODELS DEPICT OUR REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET...AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
/40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER/. UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN TIMING
OF INITIAL SHORTWAVES...THE CLOUD COVER OF WHICH COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY...BUT OVERALL THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE MONDAY COULD
BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...SUGGESTS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE CELLS. HOWEVER...SOME
HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL SINCE A THICKER PORTION OF THE CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXISTS WELL ALOFT INTO HAIL-GROWTH TEMPERATURES
/PARTICULARLY IN THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM SOUNDINGS/.

SHOWERS-STORMS WILL EXIT MONDAY EVENING...LEAVING THINGS FAIRLY
QUIET DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...RESULTING
IN LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL...THOUGH A FURTHER DECREASE IN ALREADY
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR SOME PERIODS. FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT LITTLE PRECIP UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH
CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT CU WILL COVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES FROM 5-6 KFT.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z... THEN ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AROUND 5-6
KFT. WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING
VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT THEN SW AT AROUND 10 KTS
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MSE/PCF


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 011736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 120PM EDT...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS WHERE DEWPOINTS POOLED INTO THE LOWER 60S. PER LAPS
DATA...SBCAPES CLIMBING TO AROUND 1K J/KG ALONG WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE DACKS >6 C/KM AND
NEIGHBORING RADAR CROSS SECTIONS REVEALS ECHO TOPS WERE AROUND 30K
FEET. NOT MUCH LIGHTNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WE WILL PLACE
SCATTERED POPS TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. H2O VAPOR LOOP
REVEALED A FAST APPROACHING SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE EAST OF DETROIT
AND PER EXTRAPOLATION...WOULD ARRIVE ACROSS EASTERN NY BY 7-8PM.
SO IT WOULD APPEAR LOTS OF METEOROLOGICAL DISCONNECTS AS THIS
FEATURE WOULD ARRIVE AFTER PEAK HEATING AND THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
THE EAST. SO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WHICH TOO
IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20
MPH...WITH HIGH TEMPS GETTING INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE
SOME MID/U80S ARE POSSIBLE. U60S TO U70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BTWN 6-9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE...AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN. THERE MAYBE BE PATCHY FOG WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG. LOWS WERE FAVORED WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH M50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO L50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS...BERKS...NRN
TACONICS...AND SRN VT.

SUNDAY...THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY CLOSE
TO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
VIRGINAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING. THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW H850
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO +15C TO +17C. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE SW FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW/W
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...INCLEMENT WEATHER RETURNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES MAY BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
INCREASING BULK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE.
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ALOFT WITH THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7C/KM RANGE OVER THE FCST
AREA BY THE PM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS RISE
BACK TO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. CHC AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR MONDAY...AND TAPERED TO CHC POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO
L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S
TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT.GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON
THE LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. BASED ON THIS...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED HOWEVER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. HAVE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION  F THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND ABOUT
5 DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S (BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TAF SITES. REGIONAL
MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THANKS TO A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE BEST FORCING IS GENERALLY
EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS A
RESULT...WILL ONLY INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR REDUCED FLYING CONDITIONS AT
KPSF...AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT
SHOWER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SO WILL KEEP A VCSH FOR ALL SITES.
OTHERWISE...SCT CIGS AT 5-8 KFT WILL BE IN PLACE. W-NW WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP AT KALB.

FOR OVERNIGHT...THE CLOUDS LOOK TO CLEAR OUT FOR MOST SITES ANY
THERE WON/T BE ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY. SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. WINDS LOOK TO BECOME LIGHT OR
CALM. SOME MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP AT KPSF LATE TONIGHT DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL AND CLEARING SKIES...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLCE
WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND NO PRECIP EXPECTED. S-SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON  NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW  OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY. THESE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND PERHAPS SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KENX DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS OFFLINE FOR MAINTENANCE OF THE RADOME.
WE THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE AS PLEASE UTILIZE NEIGHBORING RADAR
SITES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
EQUIPMENT...BGM



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBUF 011729
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
129 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND NORTH
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE
THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...A ROBUST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE NORTHWARDS TO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BULK OF
OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER IMPULSE OF
ENERGY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF 17Z THIS CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY. THIS WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL
PROVIDE MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS IT CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR...
OPERATIONAL NAM...AND EXPERIMENTAL 3KM NAMRR ARE NOT DEVELOPING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS.
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER ASCENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE WATERTOWN AREA. THE
HIGH RES GUIDANCE ALSO TARGETS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER CONVERGENCE ZONE
FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THE ENHANCED WSW
FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE AND GENERAL WNW FLOW OVER THE NIAGARA PENINSULA
WILL DEVELOP A NICE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NEAR GRAND ISLAND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO AND INTO GENESEE COUNTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...A LITTLE SOUTH OF ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL PLACEMENT GIVEN THE
WNW FLOW ALOFT. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW HOURS OF
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE TWO AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO REMAIN VERY SPARSE...IF ANYTHING
FORMS AT ALL. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL
KEEP AREAS EAST OF BOTH LAKES DRY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FROM
FRIDAY...AS H85 TEMPS AVERAGING 12C WILL ONLY ENCOURAGE THE
MERCURY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF
EARLY IN THE EVENING...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC HIGH AS THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WHILE MINS
WILL BE FOUND IN THE MID 50S IN THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS AND
POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE UPSTREAM THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE HAVING UNIVERSALLY SLOWED THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...IT NOW APPEARS THAT SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IF NOT
ENTIRELY DRY...WITH JUST SOME LOW-END CHANCES OF A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EXTREME
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. WITH THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HELPING TO PUSH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE +13C
TO +16C RANGE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT PROMOTING AN
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE/CONSEQUENT GOOD MIXING...AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE A PRE-COLD FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
EASE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE TRAILING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SOME MODEST TIMING DIFFERENCES...IN GENERAL
THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT ATTENDANT TO THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. AT THIS JUNCTURE THE GREATEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL/COVERAGE APPEARS AS IF IT WILL LIKELY FOCUS
ON THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TIME FRAME...DURING WHICH
THE LOW LIKELY POPS FROM OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY LOOKED VERY
REASONABLE AND HAVE THUS BEEN MAINTAINED.

WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY LEVELS SHOULD
INITIALLY BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE UNFAVORABLE PORTION OF THE
DIURNAL CYCLE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GREATLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THAT TIME. THIS COULD HOWEVER CHANGE BY
LATER MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AS RENEWED DIURNAL HEATING MAY LEAD
TO INCREASING INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH THE EXACT AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION WE CAN EXPECT
REMAINING UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOTH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF ANY CLOUD COVER/PRECIP
INITIALLY PRESENT MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION BE REALIZED...ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE
IN PLACE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME STRONGER TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. IN THEIR NEW DAY 3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF OUR REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY...AND THIS LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN
THE ABOVE FACTORS.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SWATH OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD
LEAD TO PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN FOLLOWING
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT.

WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD...LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER/NORTH COUNTRY TO
NEAR 70 ALONG THE LAKESHORES. AFTER THAT...EXPECT READINGS TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING OUT NEAR 80 ON MONDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS
THEN DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE BIG PICTURE...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
FEATURE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND ALLOWING THE LARGE-
SCALE FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION TO TREND MORE QUASI-ZONAL AGAIN BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOR OUR REGION...THIS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THIS PERIOD...WHEN DAILY HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE TREND TOWARD COOLER
WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN BY THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY THEN LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BEFORE INCREASING SURFACE- BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
THEN BRINGS A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELDS THIS
AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE COOLER LAKES.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A FEW AREAS. EXPECT THE BEST
COVERAGE TO BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
OF KART FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY IS FOUND. A CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL ALSO SET UP VERY
CLOSE TO KIAG AND KBUF MARKING THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE STRONGER WSW
FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE AND THE WNW FLOW OFF THE NIAGARA PENINSULA. THIS
MAY ALLOW A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM ABOUT
20Z-00Z NEAR KBUF AND KIAG. VFR WILL PREVAIL...BUT ANY OF THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL END BY MID EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH JUST
A FEW PATCHES OF VFR LEVEL STRATUS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND
TO PREVENT ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO
PREVENT ANY CONVECTION UNTIL A SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST SUNDAY EVENING. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH JUST SCT
DIURNAL CUMULUS AND SOME MODEST INCREASE IN CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
MONDAY...VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AND RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN ENDS OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

THIS SAME BASIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF SOME TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AGAIN ON BOTH LAKES LATER
SUNDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...RSH



000
FXUS61 KBUF 011729
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
129 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND NORTH
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE
THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...A ROBUST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE NORTHWARDS TO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BULK OF
OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER IMPULSE OF
ENERGY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF 17Z THIS CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY. THIS WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL
PROVIDE MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS IT CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR...
OPERATIONAL NAM...AND EXPERIMENTAL 3KM NAMRR ARE NOT DEVELOPING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS.
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER ASCENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE WATERTOWN AREA. THE
HIGH RES GUIDANCE ALSO TARGETS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER CONVERGENCE ZONE
FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THE ENHANCED WSW
FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE AND GENERAL WNW FLOW OVER THE NIAGARA PENINSULA
WILL DEVELOP A NICE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NEAR GRAND ISLAND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO AND INTO GENESEE COUNTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...A LITTLE SOUTH OF ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL PLACEMENT GIVEN THE
WNW FLOW ALOFT. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW HOURS OF
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE TWO AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO REMAIN VERY SPARSE...IF ANYTHING
FORMS AT ALL. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL
KEEP AREAS EAST OF BOTH LAKES DRY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FROM
FRIDAY...AS H85 TEMPS AVERAGING 12C WILL ONLY ENCOURAGE THE
MERCURY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF
EARLY IN THE EVENING...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC HIGH AS THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WHILE MINS
WILL BE FOUND IN THE MID 50S IN THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS AND
POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE UPSTREAM THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE HAVING UNIVERSALLY SLOWED THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...IT NOW APPEARS THAT SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IF NOT
ENTIRELY DRY...WITH JUST SOME LOW-END CHANCES OF A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EXTREME
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. WITH THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HELPING TO PUSH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE +13C
TO +16C RANGE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT PROMOTING AN
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE/CONSEQUENT GOOD MIXING...AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE A PRE-COLD FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
EASE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE TRAILING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SOME MODEST TIMING DIFFERENCES...IN GENERAL
THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT ATTENDANT TO THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. AT THIS JUNCTURE THE GREATEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL/COVERAGE APPEARS AS IF IT WILL LIKELY FOCUS
ON THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TIME FRAME...DURING WHICH
THE LOW LIKELY POPS FROM OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY LOOKED VERY
REASONABLE AND HAVE THUS BEEN MAINTAINED.

WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY LEVELS SHOULD
INITIALLY BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE UNFAVORABLE PORTION OF THE
DIURNAL CYCLE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GREATLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THAT TIME. THIS COULD HOWEVER CHANGE BY
LATER MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AS RENEWED DIURNAL HEATING MAY LEAD
TO INCREASING INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH THE EXACT AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION WE CAN EXPECT
REMAINING UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOTH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF ANY CLOUD COVER/PRECIP
INITIALLY PRESENT MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION BE REALIZED...ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE
IN PLACE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME STRONGER TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. IN THEIR NEW DAY 3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF OUR REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY...AND THIS LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN
THE ABOVE FACTORS.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SWATH OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD
LEAD TO PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN FOLLOWING
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT.

WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD...LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER/NORTH COUNTRY TO
NEAR 70 ALONG THE LAKESHORES. AFTER THAT...EXPECT READINGS TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING OUT NEAR 80 ON MONDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS
THEN DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE BIG PICTURE...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
FEATURE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND ALLOWING THE LARGE-
SCALE FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION TO TREND MORE QUASI-ZONAL AGAIN BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOR OUR REGION...THIS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THIS PERIOD...WHEN DAILY HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE TREND TOWARD COOLER
WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN BY THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY THEN LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BEFORE INCREASING SURFACE- BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
THEN BRINGS A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELDS THIS
AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE COOLER LAKES.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A FEW AREAS. EXPECT THE BEST
COVERAGE TO BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
OF KART FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY IS FOUND. A CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL ALSO SET UP VERY
CLOSE TO KIAG AND KBUF MARKING THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE STRONGER WSW
FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE AND THE WNW FLOW OFF THE NIAGARA PENINSULA. THIS
MAY ALLOW A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM ABOUT
20Z-00Z NEAR KBUF AND KIAG. VFR WILL PREVAIL...BUT ANY OF THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL END BY MID EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH JUST
A FEW PATCHES OF VFR LEVEL STRATUS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND
TO PREVENT ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO
PREVENT ANY CONVECTION UNTIL A SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST SUNDAY EVENING. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH JUST SCT
DIURNAL CUMULUS AND SOME MODEST INCREASE IN CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
MONDAY...VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AND RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN ENDS OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

THIS SAME BASIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF SOME TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AGAIN ON BOTH LAKES LATER
SUNDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...RSH



000
FXUS61 KBUF 011729
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
129 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND NORTH
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE
THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...A ROBUST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE NORTHWARDS TO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BULK OF
OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER IMPULSE OF
ENERGY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF 17Z THIS CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY. THIS WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL
PROVIDE MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS IT CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR...
OPERATIONAL NAM...AND EXPERIMENTAL 3KM NAMRR ARE NOT DEVELOPING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS.
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER ASCENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE WATERTOWN AREA. THE
HIGH RES GUIDANCE ALSO TARGETS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER CONVERGENCE ZONE
FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THE ENHANCED WSW
FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE AND GENERAL WNW FLOW OVER THE NIAGARA PENINSULA
WILL DEVELOP A NICE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NEAR GRAND ISLAND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO AND INTO GENESEE COUNTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...A LITTLE SOUTH OF ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL PLACEMENT GIVEN THE
WNW FLOW ALOFT. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW HOURS OF
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE TWO AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO REMAIN VERY SPARSE...IF ANYTHING
FORMS AT ALL. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL
KEEP AREAS EAST OF BOTH LAKES DRY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FROM
FRIDAY...AS H85 TEMPS AVERAGING 12C WILL ONLY ENCOURAGE THE
MERCURY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF
EARLY IN THE EVENING...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC HIGH AS THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WHILE MINS
WILL BE FOUND IN THE MID 50S IN THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS AND
POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE UPSTREAM THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE HAVING UNIVERSALLY SLOWED THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...IT NOW APPEARS THAT SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IF NOT
ENTIRELY DRY...WITH JUST SOME LOW-END CHANCES OF A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EXTREME
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. WITH THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HELPING TO PUSH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE +13C
TO +16C RANGE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT PROMOTING AN
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE/CONSEQUENT GOOD MIXING...AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE A PRE-COLD FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
EASE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE TRAILING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SOME MODEST TIMING DIFFERENCES...IN GENERAL
THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT ATTENDANT TO THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. AT THIS JUNCTURE THE GREATEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL/COVERAGE APPEARS AS IF IT WILL LIKELY FOCUS
ON THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TIME FRAME...DURING WHICH
THE LOW LIKELY POPS FROM OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY LOOKED VERY
REASONABLE AND HAVE THUS BEEN MAINTAINED.

WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY LEVELS SHOULD
INITIALLY BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE UNFAVORABLE PORTION OF THE
DIURNAL CYCLE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GREATLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THAT TIME. THIS COULD HOWEVER CHANGE BY
LATER MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AS RENEWED DIURNAL HEATING MAY LEAD
TO INCREASING INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH THE EXACT AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION WE CAN EXPECT
REMAINING UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOTH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF ANY CLOUD COVER/PRECIP
INITIALLY PRESENT MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION BE REALIZED...ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE
IN PLACE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME STRONGER TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. IN THEIR NEW DAY 3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF OUR REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY...AND THIS LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN
THE ABOVE FACTORS.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SWATH OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD
LEAD TO PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN FOLLOWING
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT.

WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD...LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER/NORTH COUNTRY TO
NEAR 70 ALONG THE LAKESHORES. AFTER THAT...EXPECT READINGS TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING OUT NEAR 80 ON MONDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS
THEN DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE BIG PICTURE...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
FEATURE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND ALLOWING THE LARGE-
SCALE FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION TO TREND MORE QUASI-ZONAL AGAIN BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOR OUR REGION...THIS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THIS PERIOD...WHEN DAILY HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE TREND TOWARD COOLER
WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN BY THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY THEN LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BEFORE INCREASING SURFACE- BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
THEN BRINGS A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELDS THIS
AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE COOLER LAKES.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A FEW AREAS. EXPECT THE BEST
COVERAGE TO BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
OF KART FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY IS FOUND. A CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL ALSO SET UP VERY
CLOSE TO KIAG AND KBUF MARKING THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE STRONGER WSW
FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE AND THE WNW FLOW OFF THE NIAGARA PENINSULA. THIS
MAY ALLOW A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM ABOUT
20Z-00Z NEAR KBUF AND KIAG. VFR WILL PREVAIL...BUT ANY OF THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL END BY MID EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH JUST
A FEW PATCHES OF VFR LEVEL STRATUS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND
TO PREVENT ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO
PREVENT ANY CONVECTION UNTIL A SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST SUNDAY EVENING. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH JUST SCT
DIURNAL CUMULUS AND SOME MODEST INCREASE IN CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
MONDAY...VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AND RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN ENDS OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

THIS SAME BASIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF SOME TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AGAIN ON BOTH LAKES LATER
SUNDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...RSH



000
FXUS61 KBUF 011729
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
129 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND NORTH
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE
THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...A ROBUST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE NORTHWARDS TO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BULK OF
OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER IMPULSE OF
ENERGY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF 17Z THIS CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY. THIS WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL
PROVIDE MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS IT CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR...
OPERATIONAL NAM...AND EXPERIMENTAL 3KM NAMRR ARE NOT DEVELOPING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS.
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER ASCENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE WATERTOWN AREA. THE
HIGH RES GUIDANCE ALSO TARGETS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER CONVERGENCE ZONE
FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THE ENHANCED WSW
FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE AND GENERAL WNW FLOW OVER THE NIAGARA PENINSULA
WILL DEVELOP A NICE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NEAR GRAND ISLAND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO AND INTO GENESEE COUNTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...A LITTLE SOUTH OF ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL PLACEMENT GIVEN THE
WNW FLOW ALOFT. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW HOURS OF
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE TWO AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO REMAIN VERY SPARSE...IF ANYTHING
FORMS AT ALL. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL
KEEP AREAS EAST OF BOTH LAKES DRY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FROM
FRIDAY...AS H85 TEMPS AVERAGING 12C WILL ONLY ENCOURAGE THE
MERCURY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF
EARLY IN THE EVENING...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC HIGH AS THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WHILE MINS
WILL BE FOUND IN THE MID 50S IN THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS AND
POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE UPSTREAM THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE HAVING UNIVERSALLY SLOWED THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...IT NOW APPEARS THAT SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IF NOT
ENTIRELY DRY...WITH JUST SOME LOW-END CHANCES OF A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EXTREME
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. WITH THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HELPING TO PUSH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE +13C
TO +16C RANGE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT PROMOTING AN
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE/CONSEQUENT GOOD MIXING...AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE A PRE-COLD FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
EASE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE TRAILING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SOME MODEST TIMING DIFFERENCES...IN GENERAL
THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT ATTENDANT TO THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. AT THIS JUNCTURE THE GREATEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL/COVERAGE APPEARS AS IF IT WILL LIKELY FOCUS
ON THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TIME FRAME...DURING WHICH
THE LOW LIKELY POPS FROM OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY LOOKED VERY
REASONABLE AND HAVE THUS BEEN MAINTAINED.

WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY LEVELS SHOULD
INITIALLY BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE UNFAVORABLE PORTION OF THE
DIURNAL CYCLE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GREATLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THAT TIME. THIS COULD HOWEVER CHANGE BY
LATER MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AS RENEWED DIURNAL HEATING MAY LEAD
TO INCREASING INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH THE EXACT AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION WE CAN EXPECT
REMAINING UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOTH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF ANY CLOUD COVER/PRECIP
INITIALLY PRESENT MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION BE REALIZED...ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE
IN PLACE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME STRONGER TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. IN THEIR NEW DAY 3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF OUR REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY...AND THIS LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN
THE ABOVE FACTORS.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SWATH OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD
LEAD TO PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN FOLLOWING
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT.

WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD...LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER/NORTH COUNTRY TO
NEAR 70 ALONG THE LAKESHORES. AFTER THAT...EXPECT READINGS TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING OUT NEAR 80 ON MONDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS
THEN DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE BIG PICTURE...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
FEATURE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND ALLOWING THE LARGE-
SCALE FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION TO TREND MORE QUASI-ZONAL AGAIN BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOR OUR REGION...THIS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THIS PERIOD...WHEN DAILY HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE TREND TOWARD COOLER
WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN BY THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY THEN LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BEFORE INCREASING SURFACE- BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
THEN BRINGS A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELDS THIS
AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE COOLER LAKES.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A FEW AREAS. EXPECT THE BEST
COVERAGE TO BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
OF KART FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY IS FOUND. A CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL ALSO SET UP VERY
CLOSE TO KIAG AND KBUF MARKING THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE STRONGER WSW
FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE AND THE WNW FLOW OFF THE NIAGARA PENINSULA. THIS
MAY ALLOW A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM ABOUT
20Z-00Z NEAR KBUF AND KIAG. VFR WILL PREVAIL...BUT ANY OF THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL END BY MID EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH JUST
A FEW PATCHES OF VFR LEVEL STRATUS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND
TO PREVENT ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO
PREVENT ANY CONVECTION UNTIL A SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST SUNDAY EVENING. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH JUST SCT
DIURNAL CUMULUS AND SOME MODEST INCREASE IN CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
MONDAY...VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AND RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN ENDS OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

THIS SAME BASIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF SOME TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AGAIN ON BOTH LAKES LATER
SUNDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...RSH



000
FXUS61 KOKX 011708
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
108 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND MOVE
ACROSS TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE
AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE UPGRADED RIP CURRENT RISK TO HIGH BASED ON BEACH
REPORTS...AND CONTINUED COMBO OF INCOMING 3-4 FT LONG PERIOD
SWELLS AND SW WINDS 15 KT INTO EARLY EVENING.

LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR/RAP AND NCAR WRF
ENSEMBLE IS EMPHASIZING POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION MORE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH AT LEAST ISOLD COVERAGE...AND IN
PARTICULAR ACROSS SOUTHERN CT WITH SCT COVERAGE. POP HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL SO HAVE WORDED FCST
TO MENTION SHOWER OR TSTM. GIVEN DRY MID LEVELS AND SUB-CLOUD
LAYER AND MID LEVEL FLOW UP TO 40 KT...SHOWERS/STORMS ARE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE REINFORCED FROM TIME TO TIME AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND A VORTEX OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

THE FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN
NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING
ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A THERMAL/PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH DURING THE AFTN AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN
14-16C. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...LOWER 90S IN THE NY/NJ METRO AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THESE VALUES DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH ANY SHRA/TSTM
ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND PUSHING E.

WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING
A FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AS THE SECOND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. SW FLOW AND THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING THE HUMIDITY BACK BRIEFLY. CHC POPS
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR MON AFTN/NIGHT. WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SIMILAR BULK SHEAR TO TODAY AND BETTER
UPPER SUPPORT THERE COULD BE A SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AROUND MAINLY N AND W OF NYC.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE EXIST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT
IT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA SOMETIME MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT
WITH A LOW CHC OF POPS PRECEDING IT ON TUE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED GUSTY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z OR SO FROM WEST TO EAST.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. THEN GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY 21-22Z.

DUE TO GUSTY W/SW FLOW...SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING
PROGRESS INLAND...BUT WILL MONITOR.

WINDS LIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AS THEY TURN TO THE NW
BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS WERE NOT MEETING SCA CRITERIA YET...BUT SHOULD DO SO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO MUCH OF TONIGHT E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 5-6 FT. SCA START TIME PUSHED FORWARD TO 4
PM...AND END TIME TO 2 AM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS ON MONDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011708
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
108 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND MOVE
ACROSS TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE
AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE UPGRADED RIP CURRENT RISK TO HIGH BASED ON BEACH
REPORTS...AND CONTINUED COMBO OF INCOMING 3-4 FT LONG PERIOD
SWELLS AND SW WINDS 15 KT INTO EARLY EVENING.

LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR/RAP AND NCAR WRF
ENSEMBLE IS EMPHASIZING POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION MORE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH AT LEAST ISOLD COVERAGE...AND IN
PARTICULAR ACROSS SOUTHERN CT WITH SCT COVERAGE. POP HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL SO HAVE WORDED FCST
TO MENTION SHOWER OR TSTM. GIVEN DRY MID LEVELS AND SUB-CLOUD
LAYER AND MID LEVEL FLOW UP TO 40 KT...SHOWERS/STORMS ARE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE REINFORCED FROM TIME TO TIME AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND A VORTEX OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

THE FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN
NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING
ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A THERMAL/PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH DURING THE AFTN AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN
14-16C. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...LOWER 90S IN THE NY/NJ METRO AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THESE VALUES DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH ANY SHRA/TSTM
ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND PUSHING E.

WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING
A FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AS THE SECOND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. SW FLOW AND THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING THE HUMIDITY BACK BRIEFLY. CHC POPS
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR MON AFTN/NIGHT. WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SIMILAR BULK SHEAR TO TODAY AND BETTER
UPPER SUPPORT THERE COULD BE A SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AROUND MAINLY N AND W OF NYC.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE EXIST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT
IT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA SOMETIME MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT
WITH A LOW CHC OF POPS PRECEDING IT ON TUE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED GUSTY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z OR SO FROM WEST TO EAST.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. THEN GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY 21-22Z.

DUE TO GUSTY W/SW FLOW...SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING
PROGRESS INLAND...BUT WILL MONITOR.

WINDS LIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AS THEY TURN TO THE NW
BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS WERE NOT MEETING SCA CRITERIA YET...BUT SHOULD DO SO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO MUCH OF TONIGHT E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 5-6 FT. SCA START TIME PUSHED FORWARD TO 4
PM...AND END TIME TO 2 AM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS ON MONDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011657
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1257 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1246 PM EDT SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS
VERMONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH
WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED
INTO A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 800 TO 1600 J/KG PRESENTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SFC-06KM SHEAR
VALUES WERE HIGH EARLY TODAY BUT HAVE BEEN DECREASING THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS...CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
WITH LATEST UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO REFLECT RECENT
TRENDS AND EXPECTATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. ALSO ADDED SOME
ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH
THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR
60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIGS IN THE 050-100 AGL RANGE AND LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 4 TO 10 KT. A BRIEF/WIDELY SCT
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT THROUGH 16Z, THEN AT
KMSS/KSLK IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LOW HOWEVER ON
ACTUAL OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY, BUT SYNOPTIC
SETUP NOT FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OCCURRENCE SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ATTM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011657
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1257 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1246 PM EDT SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS
VERMONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH
WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED
INTO A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 800 TO 1600 J/KG PRESENTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SFC-06KM SHEAR
VALUES WERE HIGH EARLY TODAY BUT HAVE BEEN DECREASING THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS...CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
WITH LATEST UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO REFLECT RECENT
TRENDS AND EXPECTATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. ALSO ADDED SOME
ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH
THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR
60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIGS IN THE 050-100 AGL RANGE AND LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 4 TO 10 KT. A BRIEF/WIDELY SCT
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT THROUGH 16Z, THEN AT
KMSS/KSLK IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LOW HOWEVER ON
ACTUAL OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY, BUT SYNOPTIC
SETUP NOT FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OCCURRENCE SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ATTM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBGM 011529
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1129 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
TODAY WITH OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1115 AM... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING EAST FROM THE HUSON VALLEY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. 12Z BUF SOUNDING IS LOOKING FAIRLY DRY WITH A WARM NOSE
NEAR 500 MB ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION NAM IS FORECASTING SOME VERY SMALL ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER NE PA AND SOUTHERN NY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COVERAGE LESS THAN 25 PCT. ALL OF THESE FACTORS POINT TOWARD A
LOW CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH POPS
MAINLY 20 TO 30 PCT FOR NORTHEAST WHERE DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN
THE LOWER 60S LATE THIS MORNING... AND MORE LIKE MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL NY WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH NEAR 80 IN MOST PLACES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

0645 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/POP/SKY
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

3 AM UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA CURRENTLY AND BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
NY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING.

FOR THE DAY TODAY, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO
TAKE HOLD IN RESPONSE TO COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BEHIND DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH EVEN THE NAM INDICATING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE. ALSO, A LAYER OF WARM AIR IN MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE UPSHOT IS ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NY. CERTAINLY NOT ALL DAY RAIN FOR
ANYONE WITH THE DAY GENERALLY FEATURING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S WITH CONTINUING COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER THE AREA UNDER SKIES WHICH
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS.

BEFORE THE THUNDER THREAT MONDAY HOWEVER...WE WERE ABLE TO REMOVE
WHAT REMAINED OF THE SHOWER-THUNDER CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING...AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR OUR REGION
TO BE BETWEEN EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT. COMBINE THAT WITH AN
ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL BE INITIALLY FAIRLY DRY...AND AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS-THUNDER SUNDAY LOOKS MINIMAL. CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS ONE OR MORE
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO MOISTENING AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SUNDAY NIGHT.

SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK INCLUDES OUR ENTIRE AREA IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS QUITE WARRANTED.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH AND
GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH...YET A MORE-THAN-ADEQUATE MIX OF
BOTH OVER OUR REGION. MODELS DEPICT OUR REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET...AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
/40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER/. UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN TIMING
OF INITIAL SHORTWAVES...THE CLOUD COVER OF WHICH COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY...BUT OVERALL THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE MONDAY COULD
BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...SUGGESTS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE CELLS. HOWEVER...SOME
HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL SINCE A THICKER PORTION OF THE CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXISTS WELL ALOFT INTO HAIL-GROWTH TEMPERATURES
/PARTICULARLY IN THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM SOUNDINGS/.

SHOWERS-STORMS WILL EXIT MONDAY EVENING...LEAVING THINGS FAIRLY
QUIET DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...RESULTING
IN LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL...THOUGH A FURTHER DECREASE IN ALREADY
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR SOME PERIODS. FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT LITTLE PRECIP UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH
CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY WILL FEATURE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH THE RISK OF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM FOR ALL OF THE SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THIS HAS NOT
BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. BARRING ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THAT OCCUR
IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT, ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH VFR
PREVAILING FOR MOST SITES. WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE LOOK TO BE
TOO STRONG FOR FOG AT KELM BUT MORE DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS
AT KAVP THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME FOG OR MIST SO WE HAVE
INDICATED MVFR VISBYS LATE TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
15 KNOTS. THESE WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.


.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...PCF



000
FXUS61 KBGM 011529
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1129 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
TODAY WITH OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1115 AM... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING EAST FROM THE HUSON VALLEY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. 12Z BUF SOUNDING IS LOOKING FAIRLY DRY WITH A WARM NOSE
NEAR 500 MB ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION NAM IS FORECASTING SOME VERY SMALL ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER NE PA AND SOUTHERN NY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COVERAGE LESS THAN 25 PCT. ALL OF THESE FACTORS POINT TOWARD A
LOW CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH POPS
MAINLY 20 TO 30 PCT FOR NORTHEAST WHERE DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN
THE LOWER 60S LATE THIS MORNING... AND MORE LIKE MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL NY WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH NEAR 80 IN MOST PLACES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

0645 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/POP/SKY
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

3 AM UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA CURRENTLY AND BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
NY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING.

FOR THE DAY TODAY, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO
TAKE HOLD IN RESPONSE TO COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BEHIND DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH EVEN THE NAM INDICATING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE. ALSO, A LAYER OF WARM AIR IN MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE UPSHOT IS ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NY. CERTAINLY NOT ALL DAY RAIN FOR
ANYONE WITH THE DAY GENERALLY FEATURING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S WITH CONTINUING COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER THE AREA UNDER SKIES WHICH
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS.

BEFORE THE THUNDER THREAT MONDAY HOWEVER...WE WERE ABLE TO REMOVE
WHAT REMAINED OF THE SHOWER-THUNDER CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING...AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR OUR REGION
TO BE BETWEEN EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT. COMBINE THAT WITH AN
ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL BE INITIALLY FAIRLY DRY...AND AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS-THUNDER SUNDAY LOOKS MINIMAL. CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS ONE OR MORE
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO MOISTENING AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SUNDAY NIGHT.

SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK INCLUDES OUR ENTIRE AREA IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS QUITE WARRANTED.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH AND
GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH...YET A MORE-THAN-ADEQUATE MIX OF
BOTH OVER OUR REGION. MODELS DEPICT OUR REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET...AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
/40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER/. UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN TIMING
OF INITIAL SHORTWAVES...THE CLOUD COVER OF WHICH COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY...BUT OVERALL THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE MONDAY COULD
BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...SUGGESTS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE CELLS. HOWEVER...SOME
HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL SINCE A THICKER PORTION OF THE CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXISTS WELL ALOFT INTO HAIL-GROWTH TEMPERATURES
/PARTICULARLY IN THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM SOUNDINGS/.

SHOWERS-STORMS WILL EXIT MONDAY EVENING...LEAVING THINGS FAIRLY
QUIET DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...RESULTING
IN LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL...THOUGH A FURTHER DECREASE IN ALREADY
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR SOME PERIODS. FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT LITTLE PRECIP UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH
CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY WILL FEATURE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH THE RISK OF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM FOR ALL OF THE SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THIS HAS NOT
BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. BARRING ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THAT OCCUR
IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT, ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH VFR
PREVAILING FOR MOST SITES. WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE LOOK TO BE
TOO STRONG FOR FOG AT KELM BUT MORE DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS
AT KAVP THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME FOG OR MIST SO WE HAVE
INDICATED MVFR VISBYS LATE TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
15 KNOTS. THESE WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.


.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011456
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1056 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND MOVE
ACROSS TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE
AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR/RAP AND NCAR WRF
ENSEMBLE IS EMPHASIZING POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION MORE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH AT LEAST ISOLD COVERAGE...AND IN
PARTICULAR ACROSS SOUTHERN CT WITH SCT COVERAGE. POP HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL SO HAVE WORDED FCST
TO MENTION SHOWER OR TSTM. GIVEN DRY MID LEVELS AND SUB-CLOUD
LAYER AND MID LEVEL FLOW UP TO 40 KT...SHOWERS/STORMS ARE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE REINFORCED FROM TIME TO TIME AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND A VORTEX OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

THE FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN
NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING
ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A THERMAL/PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH DURING THE AFTN AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN
14-16C. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...LOWER 90S IN THE NY/NJ METRO AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THESE VALUES DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTN.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH ANY SHRA/TSTM
ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND PUSHING E.

WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING
A FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AS THE SECOND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. SW FLOW AND THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING THE HUMIDITY BACK BRIEFLY. CHC POPS
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR MON AFTN/NIGHT. WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SIMILAR BULK SHEAR TO TODAY AND BETTER
UPPER SUPPORT THERE COULD BE A SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AROUND MAINLY N AND W OF NYC.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE EXIST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT
IT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA SOMETIME MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT
WITH A LOW CHC OF POPS PRECEDING IT ON TUE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED GUSTY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z OR SO FROM WEST TO EAST.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. THEN GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY 21-22Z.

DUE TO GUSTY W/SW FLOW...SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING
PROGRESS INLAND...BUT WILL MONITOR.

WINDS LIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AS THEY TURN TO THE NW
BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT.
SEAS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD TO 5 OR 6 FEET. WILL NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO THE SCA IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT UNTIL 4Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY NEED A FEW EXTRA
HOURS ADDED TO THE END TIME...HOWEVER WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-
EVALUATE THE NEW 12Z DATA.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN 4 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A
SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN
THE NEW WEEK...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS ON MONDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW



000
FXUS61 KOKX 011456
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1056 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND MOVE
ACROSS TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE
AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR/RAP AND NCAR WRF
ENSEMBLE IS EMPHASIZING POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION MORE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH AT LEAST ISOLD COVERAGE...AND IN
PARTICULAR ACROSS SOUTHERN CT WITH SCT COVERAGE. POP HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL SO HAVE WORDED FCST
TO MENTION SHOWER OR TSTM. GIVEN DRY MID LEVELS AND SUB-CLOUD
LAYER AND MID LEVEL FLOW UP TO 40 KT...SHOWERS/STORMS ARE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE REINFORCED FROM TIME TO TIME AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND A VORTEX OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

THE FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN
NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING
ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A THERMAL/PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH DURING THE AFTN AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN
14-16C. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...LOWER 90S IN THE NY/NJ METRO AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THESE VALUES DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTN.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH ANY SHRA/TSTM
ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND PUSHING E.

WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING
A FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AS THE SECOND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. SW FLOW AND THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING THE HUMIDITY BACK BRIEFLY. CHC POPS
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR MON AFTN/NIGHT. WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SIMILAR BULK SHEAR TO TODAY AND BETTER
UPPER SUPPORT THERE COULD BE A SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AROUND MAINLY N AND W OF NYC.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE EXIST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT
IT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA SOMETIME MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT
WITH A LOW CHC OF POPS PRECEDING IT ON TUE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED GUSTY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z OR SO FROM WEST TO EAST.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. THEN GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY 21-22Z.

DUE TO GUSTY W/SW FLOW...SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING
PROGRESS INLAND...BUT WILL MONITOR.

WINDS LIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AS THEY TURN TO THE NW
BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT.
SEAS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD TO 5 OR 6 FEET. WILL NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO THE SCA IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT UNTIL 4Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY NEED A FEW EXTRA
HOURS ADDED TO THE END TIME...HOWEVER WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-
EVALUATE THE NEW 12Z DATA.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN 4 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A
SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN
THE NEW WEEK...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS ON MONDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW



000
FXUS61 KOKX 011456
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1056 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND MOVE
ACROSS TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE
AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR/RAP AND NCAR WRF
ENSEMBLE IS EMPHASIZING POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION MORE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH AT LEAST ISOLD COVERAGE...AND IN
PARTICULAR ACROSS SOUTHERN CT WITH SCT COVERAGE. POP HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL SO HAVE WORDED FCST
TO MENTION SHOWER OR TSTM. GIVEN DRY MID LEVELS AND SUB-CLOUD
LAYER AND MID LEVEL FLOW UP TO 40 KT...SHOWERS/STORMS ARE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE REINFORCED FROM TIME TO TIME AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND A VORTEX OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

THE FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN
NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING
ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A THERMAL/PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH DURING THE AFTN AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN
14-16C. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...LOWER 90S IN THE NY/NJ METRO AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THESE VALUES DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTN.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH ANY SHRA/TSTM
ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND PUSHING E.

WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING
A FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AS THE SECOND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. SW FLOW AND THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING THE HUMIDITY BACK BRIEFLY. CHC POPS
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR MON AFTN/NIGHT. WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SIMILAR BULK SHEAR TO TODAY AND BETTER
UPPER SUPPORT THERE COULD BE A SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AROUND MAINLY N AND W OF NYC.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE EXIST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT
IT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA SOMETIME MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT
WITH A LOW CHC OF POPS PRECEDING IT ON TUE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED GUSTY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z OR SO FROM WEST TO EAST.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. THEN GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY 21-22Z.

DUE TO GUSTY W/SW FLOW...SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING
PROGRESS INLAND...BUT WILL MONITOR.

WINDS LIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AS THEY TURN TO THE NW
BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT.
SEAS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD TO 5 OR 6 FEET. WILL NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO THE SCA IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT UNTIL 4Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY NEED A FEW EXTRA
HOURS ADDED TO THE END TIME...HOWEVER WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-
EVALUATE THE NEW 12Z DATA.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN 4 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A
SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN
THE NEW WEEK...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS ON MONDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW



000
FXUS61 KOKX 011456
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1056 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND MOVE
ACROSS TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY AND FAIR
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE
AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR/RAP AND NCAR WRF
ENSEMBLE IS EMPHASIZING POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION MORE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH AT LEAST ISOLD COVERAGE...AND IN
PARTICULAR ACROSS SOUTHERN CT WITH SCT COVERAGE. POP HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL SO HAVE WORDED FCST
TO MENTION SHOWER OR TSTM. GIVEN DRY MID LEVELS AND SUB-CLOUD
LAYER AND MID LEVEL FLOW UP TO 40 KT...SHOWERS/STORMS ARE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE REINFORCED FROM TIME TO TIME AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND A VORTEX OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

THE FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN
NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING
ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A THERMAL/PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH DURING THE AFTN AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN
14-16C. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...LOWER 90S IN THE NY/NJ METRO AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THESE VALUES DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTN.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH ANY SHRA/TSTM
ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND PUSHING E.

WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING
A FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AS THE SECOND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. SW FLOW AND THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING THE HUMIDITY BACK BRIEFLY. CHC POPS
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR MON AFTN/NIGHT. WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SIMILAR BULK SHEAR TO TODAY AND BETTER
UPPER SUPPORT THERE COULD BE A SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AROUND MAINLY N AND W OF NYC.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE EXIST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT
IT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA SOMETIME MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT
WITH A LOW CHC OF POPS PRECEDING IT ON TUE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED GUSTY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z OR SO FROM WEST TO EAST.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. THEN GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY 21-22Z.

DUE TO GUSTY W/SW FLOW...SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING
PROGRESS INLAND...BUT WILL MONITOR.

WINDS LIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AS THEY TURN TO THE NW
BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT.
SEAS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD TO 5 OR 6 FEET. WILL NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO THE SCA IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT UNTIL 4Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY NEED A FEW EXTRA
HOURS ADDED TO THE END TIME...HOWEVER WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-
EVALUATE THE NEW 12Z DATA.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN 4 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A
SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN
THE NEW WEEK...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS ON MONDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011453
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1053 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TO
REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME WILL MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS AND FAR
NORTHEAST VERMONT. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY INCREASING QUICKLY
WITH ANYWHERE FROM 700 TO 1500 J/KG PRESENTLY ACROSS THE REGION.
SFC-06KM SHEAR VALUES HIGH EARLY TODAY BUT THEY ARE IN PROCESS OF
DECREASING...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED WITH IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH GREATEST CHANCES
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ
LEVELS...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
STILL EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY
IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SOME SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VERMONT. BEHIND THIS
ACTIVITY FOR MID-MORNING WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AS WE AWAIT THE
ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH IS TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD INDICATED. ENERGY REALLY DOESN`T REACH
THE CWA BORDER UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS IN QUESTION DUE TO SURFACE INSTABILITY
WANING. STILL THINK WE`LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND COULD EVEN SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONGER CORES BASED ON STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
70S TO LOCALLY 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH
THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR
60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIGS IN THE 050-100 AGL RANGE AND LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 4 TO 10 KT. A BRIEF/WIDELY SCT
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT THROUGH 16Z, THEN AT
KMSS/KSLK IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LOW HOWEVER ON
ACTUAL OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY, BUT SYNOPTIC
SETUP NOT FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OCCURRENCE SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ATTM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011453
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1053 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TO
REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME WILL MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS AND FAR
NORTHEAST VERMONT. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY INCREASING QUICKLY
WITH ANYWHERE FROM 700 TO 1500 J/KG PRESENTLY ACROSS THE REGION.
SFC-06KM SHEAR VALUES HIGH EARLY TODAY BUT THEY ARE IN PROCESS OF
DECREASING...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED WITH IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH GREATEST CHANCES
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ
LEVELS...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
STILL EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY
IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SOME SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VERMONT. BEHIND THIS
ACTIVITY FOR MID-MORNING WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AS WE AWAIT THE
ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH IS TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD INDICATED. ENERGY REALLY DOESN`T REACH
THE CWA BORDER UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS IN QUESTION DUE TO SURFACE INSTABILITY
WANING. STILL THINK WE`LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND COULD EVEN SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONGER CORES BASED ON STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
70S TO LOCALLY 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH
THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR
60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIGS IN THE 050-100 AGL RANGE AND LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 4 TO 10 KT. A BRIEF/WIDELY SCT
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT THROUGH 16Z, THEN AT
KMSS/KSLK IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LOW HOWEVER ON
ACTUAL OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY, BUT SYNOPTIC
SETUP NOT FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OCCURRENCE SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ATTM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011453
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1053 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TO
REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME WILL MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS AND FAR
NORTHEAST VERMONT. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY INCREASING QUICKLY
WITH ANYWHERE FROM 700 TO 1500 J/KG PRESENTLY ACROSS THE REGION.
SFC-06KM SHEAR VALUES HIGH EARLY TODAY BUT THEY ARE IN PROCESS OF
DECREASING...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED WITH IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH GREATEST CHANCES
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ
LEVELS...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
STILL EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY
IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SOME SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VERMONT. BEHIND THIS
ACTIVITY FOR MID-MORNING WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AS WE AWAIT THE
ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH IS TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD INDICATED. ENERGY REALLY DOESN`T REACH
THE CWA BORDER UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS IN QUESTION DUE TO SURFACE INSTABILITY
WANING. STILL THINK WE`LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND COULD EVEN SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONGER CORES BASED ON STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
70S TO LOCALLY 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH
THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR
60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIGS IN THE 050-100 AGL RANGE AND LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 4 TO 10 KT. A BRIEF/WIDELY SCT
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT THROUGH 16Z, THEN AT
KMSS/KSLK IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LOW HOWEVER ON
ACTUAL OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY, BUT SYNOPTIC
SETUP NOT FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OCCURRENCE SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ATTM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011453
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1053 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TO
REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME WILL MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS AND FAR
NORTHEAST VERMONT. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY INCREASING QUICKLY
WITH ANYWHERE FROM 700 TO 1500 J/KG PRESENTLY ACROSS THE REGION.
SFC-06KM SHEAR VALUES HIGH EARLY TODAY BUT THEY ARE IN PROCESS OF
DECREASING...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED WITH IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH GREATEST CHANCES
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ
LEVELS...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
STILL EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY
IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SOME SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VERMONT. BEHIND THIS
ACTIVITY FOR MID-MORNING WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AS WE AWAIT THE
ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH IS TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD INDICATED. ENERGY REALLY DOESN`T REACH
THE CWA BORDER UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS IN QUESTION DUE TO SURFACE INSTABILITY
WANING. STILL THINK WE`LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND COULD EVEN SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONGER CORES BASED ON STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
70S TO LOCALLY 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH
THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR
60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIGS IN THE 050-100 AGL RANGE AND LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 4 TO 10 KT. A BRIEF/WIDELY SCT
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT THROUGH 16Z, THEN AT
KMSS/KSLK IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LOW HOWEVER ON
ACTUAL OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY, BUT SYNOPTIC
SETUP NOT FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OCCURRENCE SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ATTM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG



000
FXUS61 KBUF 011427
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1027 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND NORTH
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE
THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...A ROBUST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL NOSE
NORTHWARDS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER IMPULSE OF ENERGY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF 14Z THIS CAN BE SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CROSSING LAKE HURON. THIS WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA
WILL PROVIDE MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS IT CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR...
OPERATIONAL NAM...AND EXPERIMENTAL 3KM NAMRR ARE NOT DEVELOPING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS.
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER ASCENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE WATERTOWN AREA. THE
HIGH RES GUIDANCE ALSO TARGETS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER CONVERGENCE ZONE
FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THE ENHANCED WSW
FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE AND GENERAL WNW FLOW OVER THE NIAGARA PENINSULA
WILL DEVELOP A NICE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NEAR GRAND ISLAND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO AND INTO GENESEE COUNTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...A LITTLE SOUTH OF ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL PLACEMENT GIVEN THE
WNW FLOW ALOFT. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW HOURS OF
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE TWO AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO REMAIN VERY SPARSE...IF ANYTHING
FORMS AT ALL. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL
KEEP AREAS EAST OF BOTH LAKES DRY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FROM
FRIDAY...AS H85 TEMPS AVERAGING 12C WILL ONLY ENCOURAGE THE
MERCURY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF
EARLY IN THE EVENING...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC HIGH AS THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WHILE MINS
WILL BE FOUND IN THE MID 50S IN THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS AND
POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE UPSTREAM THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE HAVING UNIVERSALLY SLOWED THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...IT NOW APPEARS THAT SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IF NOT
ENTIRELY DRY...WITH JUST SOME LOW-END CHANCES OF A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EXTREME
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. WITH THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HELPING TO PUSH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE +13C
TO +16C RANGE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT PROMOTING AN
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE/CONSEQUENT GOOD MIXING...AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE A PRE-COLD FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
EASE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE TRAILING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SOME MODEST TIMING DIFFERENCES...IN GENERAL
THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT ATTENDANT TO THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. AT THIS JUNCTURE THE GREATEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL/COVERAGE APPEARS AS IF IT WILL LIKELY FOCUS
ON THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TIME FRAME...DURING WHICH
THE LOW LIKELY POPS FROM OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY LOOKED VERY
REASONABLE AND HAVE THUS BEEN MAINTAINED.

WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY LEVELS SHOULD
INITIALLY BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE UNFAVORABLE PORTION OF THE
DIURNAL CYCLE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GREATLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THAT TIME. THIS COULD HOWEVER CHANGE BY
LATER MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AS RENEWED DIURNAL HEATING MAY LEAD
TO INCREASING INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH THE EXACT AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION WE CAN EXPECT
REMAINING UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOTH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF ANY CLOUD COVER/PRECIP
INITIALLY PRESENT MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION BE REALIZED...ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE
IN PLACE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME STRONGER TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. IN THEIR NEW DAY 3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF OUR REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY...AND THIS LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN
THE ABOVE FACTORS.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SWATH OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD
LEAD TO PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN FOLLOWING
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT.

WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD...LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER/NORTH COUNTRY TO
NEAR 70 ALONG THE LAKESHORES. AFTER THAT...EXPECT READINGS TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING OUT NEAR 80 ON MONDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS
THEN DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE BIG PICTURE...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
FEATURE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND ALLOWING THE LARGE-
SCALE FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION TO TREND MORE QUASI-ZONAL AGAIN BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOR OUR REGION...THIS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THIS PERIOD...WHEN DAILY HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE TREND TOWARD COOLER
WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN BY THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY THEN LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BEFORE INCREASING SURFACE- BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
THEN BRINGS A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES TODAY. WHILE THIS WILL SUPPLY OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY
WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY...A COUPLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE STABILIZING INFLUENCES
OF THE LAKES. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR KIAG AND KBUF FROM ABOUT
20Z-01Z AS A CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPS NEAR THOSE TAF SITES.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY...VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AND RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN ENDS OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

THIS SAME BASIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF SOME TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AGAIN ON BOTH LAKES LATER
SUNDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/RSH
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 011427
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1027 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND NORTH
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE
THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...A ROBUST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL NOSE
NORTHWARDS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER IMPULSE OF ENERGY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF 14Z THIS CAN BE SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CROSSING LAKE HURON. THIS WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA
WILL PROVIDE MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS IT CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR...
OPERATIONAL NAM...AND EXPERIMENTAL 3KM NAMRR ARE NOT DEVELOPING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS.
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER ASCENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE WATERTOWN AREA. THE
HIGH RES GUIDANCE ALSO TARGETS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER CONVERGENCE ZONE
FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THE ENHANCED WSW
FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE AND GENERAL WNW FLOW OVER THE NIAGARA PENINSULA
WILL DEVELOP A NICE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NEAR GRAND ISLAND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO AND INTO GENESEE COUNTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...A LITTLE SOUTH OF ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL PLACEMENT GIVEN THE
WNW FLOW ALOFT. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW HOURS OF
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE TWO AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO REMAIN VERY SPARSE...IF ANYTHING
FORMS AT ALL. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL
KEEP AREAS EAST OF BOTH LAKES DRY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FROM
FRIDAY...AS H85 TEMPS AVERAGING 12C WILL ONLY ENCOURAGE THE
MERCURY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF
EARLY IN THE EVENING...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC HIGH AS THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WHILE MINS
WILL BE FOUND IN THE MID 50S IN THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS AND
POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE UPSTREAM THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE HAVING UNIVERSALLY SLOWED THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...IT NOW APPEARS THAT SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IF NOT
ENTIRELY DRY...WITH JUST SOME LOW-END CHANCES OF A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EXTREME
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. WITH THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HELPING TO PUSH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE +13C
TO +16C RANGE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT PROMOTING AN
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE/CONSEQUENT GOOD MIXING...AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE A PRE-COLD FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
EASE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE TRAILING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SOME MODEST TIMING DIFFERENCES...IN GENERAL
THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT ATTENDANT TO THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. AT THIS JUNCTURE THE GREATEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL/COVERAGE APPEARS AS IF IT WILL LIKELY FOCUS
ON THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TIME FRAME...DURING WHICH
THE LOW LIKELY POPS FROM OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY LOOKED VERY
REASONABLE AND HAVE THUS BEEN MAINTAINED.

WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY LEVELS SHOULD
INITIALLY BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE UNFAVORABLE PORTION OF THE
DIURNAL CYCLE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GREATLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THAT TIME. THIS COULD HOWEVER CHANGE BY
LATER MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AS RENEWED DIURNAL HEATING MAY LEAD
TO INCREASING INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH THE EXACT AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION WE CAN EXPECT
REMAINING UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOTH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF ANY CLOUD COVER/PRECIP
INITIALLY PRESENT MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION BE REALIZED...ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE
IN PLACE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME STRONGER TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. IN THEIR NEW DAY 3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF OUR REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY...AND THIS LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN
THE ABOVE FACTORS.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SWATH OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD
LEAD TO PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN FOLLOWING
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT.

WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD...LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER/NORTH COUNTRY TO
NEAR 70 ALONG THE LAKESHORES. AFTER THAT...EXPECT READINGS TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING OUT NEAR 80 ON MONDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS
THEN DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE BIG PICTURE...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
FEATURE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND ALLOWING THE LARGE-
SCALE FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION TO TREND MORE QUASI-ZONAL AGAIN BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOR OUR REGION...THIS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THIS PERIOD...WHEN DAILY HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE TREND TOWARD COOLER
WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN BY THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY THEN LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BEFORE INCREASING SURFACE- BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
THEN BRINGS A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES TODAY. WHILE THIS WILL SUPPLY OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY
WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY...A COUPLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE STABILIZING INFLUENCES
OF THE LAKES. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR KIAG AND KBUF FROM ABOUT
20Z-01Z AS A CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPS NEAR THOSE TAF SITES.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY...VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AND RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN ENDS OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

THIS SAME BASIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF SOME TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AGAIN ON BOTH LAKES LATER
SUNDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/RSH
MARINE...RSH



000
FXUS61 KALY 011343
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
943 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 943 AM EDT...UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THE FIRST PUSH OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER
THIS MORNING WITH A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THESE RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE NOW PUSHED INTO NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE CWA FOR THE TIME BEING. MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
3KM HRRR...SHOWS THAT SOME MORE CELLULAR ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
DURING PEAK HEATING LATER TODAY.

THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION IN THE 6.5-6.8 C/KM RANGE. H500
TEMPS WILL FALL CLOSE TO -14C TO -16C FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTH. THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY
FOR ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION...WITH THE NAM STILL PAINTING SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH SOME GREATER POCKETS...WHILE THE GFS
IS IN THE 100-500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE GREATER SBCAPES NORTH. 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-45 KT RANGE...BUT THE BETTER
SHEAR IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE BETTER
SHEAR IS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SFC DEWPTS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S WITH SPOTTY 60F READINGS. IT APPEARS A FEW MULTI-
CELLS/CELLULAR CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR ANY STRONG TALLER
UPDRAFTS...MORE INSTABILITY WOULD NEED TO BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT
RULE OUT A ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE CELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ANY
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD POOL/STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD PEA TO
PERHAPS DIME/PENNY SIZE HAIL. THE MARGINAL RISK FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OUTSIDE OF THE ALY FCST AREA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS ON TRACK
FROM SPC.

AS SEEN IN THE LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE...THE CHANCE FOR ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS NOON AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGH TEMPS
GETTING INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME MID/U80S ARE
POSSIBLE. U60S TO U70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BTWN 6-9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE...AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN. THERE MAYBE BE PATCHY FOG WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG. LOWS WERE FAVORED WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH M50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO L50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS...BERKS...NRN
TACONICS...AND SRN VT.

SUNDAY...THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY CLOSE
TO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
VIRGINIAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING. THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW H850
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO +15C TO +17C. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE SW FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW/W
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...INCLEMENT WEATHER RETURNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES MAY BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
INCREASING BULK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE.
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ALOFT WITH THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7C/KM RANGE OVER THE FCST
AREA BY THE PM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS RISE
BACK TO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. CHC AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR MONDAY...AND TAPERED TO CHC POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO
L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S
TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT.GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON
THE LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. BASED ON THIS...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED HOWEVER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. HAVE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION  F THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND ABOUT
5 DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S (BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LULL IS THEN EXPECTED. THE NEXT WAVE
WILL HAVE THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH
VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF EXPECTED CONVECTION. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AND PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT
AT KGFL AND KPSF.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY. THESE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND PERHAPS SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011343
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
943 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 943 AM EDT...UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THE FIRST PUSH OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER
THIS MORNING WITH A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THESE RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE NOW PUSHED INTO NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE CWA FOR THE TIME BEING. MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
3KM HRRR...SHOWS THAT SOME MORE CELLULAR ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
DURING PEAK HEATING LATER TODAY.

THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION IN THE 6.5-6.8 C/KM RANGE. H500
TEMPS WILL FALL CLOSE TO -14C TO -16C FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTH. THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY
FOR ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION...WITH THE NAM STILL PAINTING SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH SOME GREATER POCKETS...WHILE THE GFS
IS IN THE 100-500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE GREATER SBCAPES NORTH. 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-45 KT RANGE...BUT THE BETTER
SHEAR IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE BETTER
SHEAR IS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SFC DEWPTS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S WITH SPOTTY 60F READINGS. IT APPEARS A FEW MULTI-
CELLS/CELLULAR CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR ANY STRONG TALLER
UPDRAFTS...MORE INSTABILITY WOULD NEED TO BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT
RULE OUT A ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE CELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ANY
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD POOL/STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD PEA TO
PERHAPS DIME/PENNY SIZE HAIL. THE MARGINAL RISK FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OUTSIDE OF THE ALY FCST AREA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS ON TRACK
FROM SPC.

AS SEEN IN THE LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE...THE CHANCE FOR ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS NOON AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGH TEMPS
GETTING INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME MID/U80S ARE
POSSIBLE. U60S TO U70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BTWN 6-9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE...AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN. THERE MAYBE BE PATCHY FOG WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG. LOWS WERE FAVORED WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH M50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO L50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS...BERKS...NRN
TACONICS...AND SRN VT.

SUNDAY...THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY CLOSE
TO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
VIRGINIAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING. THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW H850
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO +15C TO +17C. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE SW FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW/W
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...INCLEMENT WEATHER RETURNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES MAY BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
INCREASING BULK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE.
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ALOFT WITH THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7C/KM RANGE OVER THE FCST
AREA BY THE PM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS RISE
BACK TO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. CHC AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR MONDAY...AND TAPERED TO CHC POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO
L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S
TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT.GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON
THE LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. BASED ON THIS...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED HOWEVER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. HAVE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION  F THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND ABOUT
5 DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S (BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LULL IS THEN EXPECTED. THE NEXT WAVE
WILL HAVE THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH
VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF EXPECTED CONVECTION. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AND PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT
AT KGFL AND KPSF.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY. THESE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND PERHAPS SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011343
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
943 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 943 AM EDT...UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THE FIRST PUSH OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER
THIS MORNING WITH A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THESE RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE NOW PUSHED INTO NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE CWA FOR THE TIME BEING. MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
3KM HRRR...SHOWS THAT SOME MORE CELLULAR ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
DURING PEAK HEATING LATER TODAY.

THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION IN THE 6.5-6.8 C/KM RANGE. H500
TEMPS WILL FALL CLOSE TO -14C TO -16C FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTH. THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY
FOR ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION...WITH THE NAM STILL PAINTING SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH SOME GREATER POCKETS...WHILE THE GFS
IS IN THE 100-500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE GREATER SBCAPES NORTH. 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-45 KT RANGE...BUT THE BETTER
SHEAR IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE BETTER
SHEAR IS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SFC DEWPTS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S WITH SPOTTY 60F READINGS. IT APPEARS A FEW MULTI-
CELLS/CELLULAR CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR ANY STRONG TALLER
UPDRAFTS...MORE INSTABILITY WOULD NEED TO BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT
RULE OUT A ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE CELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ANY
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD POOL/STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD PEA TO
PERHAPS DIME/PENNY SIZE HAIL. THE MARGINAL RISK FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OUTSIDE OF THE ALY FCST AREA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS ON TRACK
FROM SPC.

AS SEEN IN THE LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE...THE CHANCE FOR ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS NOON AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGH TEMPS
GETTING INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME MID/U80S ARE
POSSIBLE. U60S TO U70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BTWN 6-9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE...AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN. THERE MAYBE BE PATCHY FOG WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG. LOWS WERE FAVORED WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH M50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO L50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS...BERKS...NRN
TACONICS...AND SRN VT.

SUNDAY...THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY CLOSE
TO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
VIRGINIAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING. THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW H850
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO +15C TO +17C. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE SW FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW/W
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...INCLEMENT WEATHER RETURNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES MAY BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
INCREASING BULK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE.
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ALOFT WITH THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7C/KM RANGE OVER THE FCST
AREA BY THE PM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS RISE
BACK TO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. CHC AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR MONDAY...AND TAPERED TO CHC POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO
L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S
TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT.GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON
THE LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. BASED ON THIS...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED HOWEVER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. HAVE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION  F THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND ABOUT
5 DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S (BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LULL IS THEN EXPECTED. THE NEXT WAVE
WILL HAVE THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH
VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF EXPECTED CONVECTION. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AND PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT
AT KGFL AND KPSF.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY. THESE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND PERHAPS SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KBUF 011143
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
743 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND NORTH
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE
THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...A ROBUST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL NOSE
NORTHWARDS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER IMPULSE OF ENERGY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF 11Z...THE SHORTWAVE
COULD BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY DIGGING ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR. IT WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...JUST AS OUR AIRMASS REACHES ITS GREATEST DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES WILL APPROACH 1000 J/KG AT THE TIME OF ITS
PASSAGE...BUT WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A STRONG
LAKE BREEZE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM LAKE ERIE...THE CONVECTION IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND WELL INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE AND
ITS SHADOW...PLACING THE FOCUS FROM ABOUT GENESEE COUNTY TO THE
FINGER LAKES REGION. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...THE DAY WILL BE LARGELY
RAIN FREE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FROM
FRIDAY...AS H85 TEMPS AVERAGING 12C WILL ONLY ENCOURAGE THE
MERCURY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF
EARLY IN THE EVENING...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC HIGH AS THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WHILE MINS
WILL BE FOUND IN THE MID 50S IN THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS AND
POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE UPSTREAM THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE HAVING UNIVERSALLY SLOWED THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...IT NOW APPEARS THAT SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IF NOT
ENTIRELY DRY...WITH JUST SOME LOW-END CHANCES OF A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EXTREME
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. WITH THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HELPING TO PUSH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE +13C
TO +16C RANGE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT PROMOTING AN
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE/CONSEQUENT GOOD MIXING...AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE A PRE-COLD FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
EASE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE TRAILING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SOME MODEST TIMING DIFFERENCES...IN GENERAL
THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT ATTENDANT TO THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. AT THIS JUNCTURE THE GREATEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL/COVERAGE APPEARS AS IF IT WILL LIKELY FOCUS
ON THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TIME FRAME...DURING WHICH
THE LOW LIKELY POPS FROM OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY LOOKED VERY
REASONABLE AND HAVE THUS BEEN MAINTAINED.

WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY LEVELS SHOULD
INITIALLY BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE UNFAVORABLE PORTION OF THE
DIURNAL CYCLE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GREATLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THAT TIME. THIS COULD HOWEVER CHANGE BY
LATER MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AS RENEWED DIURNAL HEATING MAY LEAD
TO INCREASING INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH THE EXACT AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION WE CAN EXPECT
REMAINING UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOTH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF ANY CLOUD COVER/PRECIP
INITIALLY PRESENT MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION BE REALIZED...ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE
IN PLACE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME STRONGER TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. IN THEIR NEW DAY 3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF OUR REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY...AND THIS LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN
THE ABOVE FACTORS.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SWATH OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD
LEAD TO PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN FOLLOWING
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT.

WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD...LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER/NORTH COUNTRY TO
NEAR 70 ALONG THE LAKESHORES. AFTER THAT...EXPECT READINGS TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING OUT NEAR 80 ON MONDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS
THEN DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE BIG PICTURE...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
FEATURE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND ALLOWING THE LARGE-
SCALE FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION TO TREND MORE QUASI-ZONAL AGAIN BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOR OUR REGION...THIS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THIS PERIOD...WHEN DAILY HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE TREND TOWARD COOLER
WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN BY THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY THEN LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BEFORE INCREASING SURFACE- BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
THEN BRINGS A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES TODAY. WHILE THIS WILL SUPPLY OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY
WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY...A COUPLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE STABILIZING INFLUENCES
OF THE LAKES.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY...VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AND RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN ENDS OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

THIS SAME BASIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF SOME TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AGAIN ON BOTH LAKES LATER
SUNDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 011143
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
743 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND NORTH
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE
THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...A ROBUST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL NOSE
NORTHWARDS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER IMPULSE OF ENERGY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF 11Z...THE SHORTWAVE
COULD BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY DIGGING ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR. IT WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...JUST AS OUR AIRMASS REACHES ITS GREATEST DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES WILL APPROACH 1000 J/KG AT THE TIME OF ITS
PASSAGE...BUT WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A STRONG
LAKE BREEZE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM LAKE ERIE...THE CONVECTION IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND WELL INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE AND
ITS SHADOW...PLACING THE FOCUS FROM ABOUT GENESEE COUNTY TO THE
FINGER LAKES REGION. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...THE DAY WILL BE LARGELY
RAIN FREE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FROM
FRIDAY...AS H85 TEMPS AVERAGING 12C WILL ONLY ENCOURAGE THE
MERCURY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF
EARLY IN THE EVENING...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC HIGH AS THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WHILE MINS
WILL BE FOUND IN THE MID 50S IN THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS AND
POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE UPSTREAM THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE HAVING UNIVERSALLY SLOWED THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...IT NOW APPEARS THAT SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IF NOT
ENTIRELY DRY...WITH JUST SOME LOW-END CHANCES OF A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EXTREME
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. WITH THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HELPING TO PUSH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE +13C
TO +16C RANGE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT PROMOTING AN
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE/CONSEQUENT GOOD MIXING...AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE A PRE-COLD FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
EASE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE TRAILING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SOME MODEST TIMING DIFFERENCES...IN GENERAL
THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT ATTENDANT TO THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. AT THIS JUNCTURE THE GREATEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL/COVERAGE APPEARS AS IF IT WILL LIKELY FOCUS
ON THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TIME FRAME...DURING WHICH
THE LOW LIKELY POPS FROM OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY LOOKED VERY
REASONABLE AND HAVE THUS BEEN MAINTAINED.

WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY LEVELS SHOULD
INITIALLY BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE UNFAVORABLE PORTION OF THE
DIURNAL CYCLE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GREATLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THAT TIME. THIS COULD HOWEVER CHANGE BY
LATER MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AS RENEWED DIURNAL HEATING MAY LEAD
TO INCREASING INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH THE EXACT AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION WE CAN EXPECT
REMAINING UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOTH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF ANY CLOUD COVER/PRECIP
INITIALLY PRESENT MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION BE REALIZED...ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE
IN PLACE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME STRONGER TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. IN THEIR NEW DAY 3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF OUR REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY...AND THIS LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN
THE ABOVE FACTORS.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SWATH OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD
LEAD TO PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN FOLLOWING
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT.

WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD...LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER/NORTH COUNTRY TO
NEAR 70 ALONG THE LAKESHORES. AFTER THAT...EXPECT READINGS TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING OUT NEAR 80 ON MONDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS
THEN DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE BIG PICTURE...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
FEATURE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND ALLOWING THE LARGE-
SCALE FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION TO TREND MORE QUASI-ZONAL AGAIN BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOR OUR REGION...THIS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THIS PERIOD...WHEN DAILY HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE TREND TOWARD COOLER
WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN BY THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY THEN LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BEFORE INCREASING SURFACE- BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
THEN BRINGS A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES TODAY. WHILE THIS WILL SUPPLY OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY
WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY...A COUPLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE STABILIZING INFLUENCES
OF THE LAKES.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY...VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AND RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN ENDS OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

THIS SAME BASIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF SOME TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AGAIN ON BOTH LAKES LATER
SUNDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 011143
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
743 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND NORTH
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE
THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...A ROBUST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL NOSE
NORTHWARDS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER IMPULSE OF ENERGY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF 11Z...THE SHORTWAVE
COULD BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY DIGGING ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR. IT WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...JUST AS OUR AIRMASS REACHES ITS GREATEST DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES WILL APPROACH 1000 J/KG AT THE TIME OF ITS
PASSAGE...BUT WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A STRONG
LAKE BREEZE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM LAKE ERIE...THE CONVECTION IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND WELL INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE AND
ITS SHADOW...PLACING THE FOCUS FROM ABOUT GENESEE COUNTY TO THE
FINGER LAKES REGION. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...THE DAY WILL BE LARGELY
RAIN FREE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FROM
FRIDAY...AS H85 TEMPS AVERAGING 12C WILL ONLY ENCOURAGE THE
MERCURY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF
EARLY IN THE EVENING...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC HIGH AS THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WHILE MINS
WILL BE FOUND IN THE MID 50S IN THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS AND
POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE UPSTREAM THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE HAVING UNIVERSALLY SLOWED THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...IT NOW APPEARS THAT SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IF NOT
ENTIRELY DRY...WITH JUST SOME LOW-END CHANCES OF A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EXTREME
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. WITH THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HELPING TO PUSH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE +13C
TO +16C RANGE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT PROMOTING AN
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE/CONSEQUENT GOOD MIXING...AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE A PRE-COLD FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
EASE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE TRAILING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SOME MODEST TIMING DIFFERENCES...IN GENERAL
THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT ATTENDANT TO THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. AT THIS JUNCTURE THE GREATEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL/COVERAGE APPEARS AS IF IT WILL LIKELY FOCUS
ON THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TIME FRAME...DURING WHICH
THE LOW LIKELY POPS FROM OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY LOOKED VERY
REASONABLE AND HAVE THUS BEEN MAINTAINED.

WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY LEVELS SHOULD
INITIALLY BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE UNFAVORABLE PORTION OF THE
DIURNAL CYCLE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GREATLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THAT TIME. THIS COULD HOWEVER CHANGE BY
LATER MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AS RENEWED DIURNAL HEATING MAY LEAD
TO INCREASING INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH THE EXACT AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION WE CAN EXPECT
REMAINING UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOTH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF ANY CLOUD COVER/PRECIP
INITIALLY PRESENT MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION BE REALIZED...ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE
IN PLACE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME STRONGER TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. IN THEIR NEW DAY 3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF OUR REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY...AND THIS LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN
THE ABOVE FACTORS.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SWATH OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD
LEAD TO PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN FOLLOWING
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT.

WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD...LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER/NORTH COUNTRY TO
NEAR 70 ALONG THE LAKESHORES. AFTER THAT...EXPECT READINGS TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING OUT NEAR 80 ON MONDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS
THEN DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE BIG PICTURE...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
FEATURE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND ALLOWING THE LARGE-
SCALE FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION TO TREND MORE QUASI-ZONAL AGAIN BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOR OUR REGION...THIS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THIS PERIOD...WHEN DAILY HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE TREND TOWARD COOLER
WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN BY THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY THEN LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BEFORE INCREASING SURFACE- BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
THEN BRINGS A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES TODAY. WHILE THIS WILL SUPPLY OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY
WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY...A COUPLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE STABILIZING INFLUENCES
OF THE LAKES.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY...VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AND RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN ENDS OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

THIS SAME BASIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF SOME TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AGAIN ON BOTH LAKES LATER
SUNDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH



000
FXUS61 KOKX 011123
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
723 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY AND
FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO T/TD/SKY
BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE REINFORCED FROM TIME TO TIME AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND A VORTEX OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

THE FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN
NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING
ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A THERMAL/PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH DURING THE AFTN AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVE. NAM IS THE
MOST ROBUST WITH THE ACTIVITY...BUT THINK IT IS OVERDONE. HAVE
MAINTAINED SCHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SBCAPE BETWEEN
500-1000J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35-45KT COULD RESULT IN
A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN
14-16C. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...LOWER 90S IN THE NY/NJ METRO AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THESE VALUES DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTN.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH ANY SHRA/TSTM
ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND PUSHING E.

WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING
A FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AS THE SECOND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. SW FLOW AND THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING THE HUMIDITY BACK BRIEFLY. CHC POPS
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR MON AFTN/NIGHT. WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SIMILAR BULK SHEAR TO TODAY AND BETTER
UPPER SUPPORT THERE COULD BE A SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AROUND MAINLY N AND W OF NYC.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE EXIST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT
IT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA SOMETIME MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT
WITH A LOW CHC OF POPS PRECEDING IT ON TUE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY THIS MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NYC AREA
TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS IS TOO LOW...AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS START OFF LIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE AT KJFK. ANY GUSTS DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT.
SEAS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD TO 5 OR 6 FEET. WILL NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO THE SCA IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT UNTIL 4Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY NEED A FEW EXTRA
HOURS ADDED TO THE END TIME...HOWEVER WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-
EVALUATE THE NEW 12Z DATA.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN 4 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A
SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN
THE NEW WEEK...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS ON MONDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KOKX 011123
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
723 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY AND
FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO T/TD/SKY
BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE REINFORCED FROM TIME TO TIME AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND A VORTEX OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

THE FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN
NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING
ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A THERMAL/PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH DURING THE AFTN AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVE. NAM IS THE
MOST ROBUST WITH THE ACTIVITY...BUT THINK IT IS OVERDONE. HAVE
MAINTAINED SCHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SBCAPE BETWEEN
500-1000J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35-45KT COULD RESULT IN
A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN
14-16C. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...LOWER 90S IN THE NY/NJ METRO AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THESE VALUES DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTN.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH ANY SHRA/TSTM
ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND PUSHING E.

WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING
A FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AS THE SECOND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. SW FLOW AND THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING THE HUMIDITY BACK BRIEFLY. CHC POPS
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR MON AFTN/NIGHT. WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SIMILAR BULK SHEAR TO TODAY AND BETTER
UPPER SUPPORT THERE COULD BE A SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AROUND MAINLY N AND W OF NYC.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE EXIST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT
IT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA SOMETIME MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT
WITH A LOW CHC OF POPS PRECEDING IT ON TUE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY THIS MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NYC AREA
TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS IS TOO LOW...AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS START OFF LIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE AT KJFK. ANY GUSTS DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT.
SEAS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD TO 5 OR 6 FEET. WILL NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO THE SCA IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT UNTIL 4Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY NEED A FEW EXTRA
HOURS ADDED TO THE END TIME...HOWEVER WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-
EVALUATE THE NEW 12Z DATA.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN 4 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A
SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN
THE NEW WEEK...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS ON MONDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KOKX 011123
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
723 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY AND
FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO T/TD/SKY
BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE REINFORCED FROM TIME TO TIME AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND A VORTEX OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

THE FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN
NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING
ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A THERMAL/PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH DURING THE AFTN AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVE. NAM IS THE
MOST ROBUST WITH THE ACTIVITY...BUT THINK IT IS OVERDONE. HAVE
MAINTAINED SCHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SBCAPE BETWEEN
500-1000J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35-45KT COULD RESULT IN
A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN
14-16C. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...LOWER 90S IN THE NY/NJ METRO AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THESE VALUES DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTN.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH ANY SHRA/TSTM
ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND PUSHING E.

WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING
A FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AS THE SECOND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. SW FLOW AND THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING THE HUMIDITY BACK BRIEFLY. CHC POPS
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR MON AFTN/NIGHT. WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SIMILAR BULK SHEAR TO TODAY AND BETTER
UPPER SUPPORT THERE COULD BE A SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AROUND MAINLY N AND W OF NYC.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE EXIST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT
IT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA SOMETIME MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT
WITH A LOW CHC OF POPS PRECEDING IT ON TUE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY THIS MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NYC AREA
TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS IS TOO LOW...AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS START OFF LIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE AT KJFK. ANY GUSTS DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT.
SEAS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD TO 5 OR 6 FEET. WILL NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO THE SCA IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT UNTIL 4Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY NEED A FEW EXTRA
HOURS ADDED TO THE END TIME...HOWEVER WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-
EVALUATE THE NEW 12Z DATA.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN 4 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A
SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN
THE NEW WEEK...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS ON MONDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011122
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 722 AM EDT SATURDAY...FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH SOME SHOWERS OUT AHEAD MOVING EAST THROUGH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VERMONT. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY FOR MID-MORNING
WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT
SHORTWAVE WHICH IS TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS HAD INDICATED. ENERGY REALLY DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
BORDER UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS IN QUESTION DUE TO SURFACE INSTABILITY WANING.
STILL THINK WE`LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND COULD EVEN SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONGER CORES BASED ON STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
70S TO LOCALLY 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH
THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR
60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIGS IN THE 050-100 AGL RANGE AND LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 4 TO 10 KT. A BRIEF/WIDELY SCT
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT THROUGH 16Z, THEN AT
KMSS/KSLK IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LOW HOWEVER ON
ACTUAL OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY, BUT SYNOPTIC
SETUP NOT FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OCCURRENCE SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ATTM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011122
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 722 AM EDT SATURDAY...FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH SOME SHOWERS OUT AHEAD MOVING EAST THROUGH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VERMONT. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY FOR MID-MORNING
WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT
SHORTWAVE WHICH IS TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS HAD INDICATED. ENERGY REALLY DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
BORDER UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS IN QUESTION DUE TO SURFACE INSTABILITY WANING.
STILL THINK WE`LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND COULD EVEN SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONGER CORES BASED ON STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
70S TO LOCALLY 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH
THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR
60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIGS IN THE 050-100 AGL RANGE AND LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 4 TO 10 KT. A BRIEF/WIDELY SCT
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT THROUGH 16Z, THEN AT
KMSS/KSLK IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LOW HOWEVER ON
ACTUAL OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY, BUT SYNOPTIC
SETUP NOT FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OCCURRENCE SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ATTM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011122
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 722 AM EDT SATURDAY...FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH SOME SHOWERS OUT AHEAD MOVING EAST THROUGH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VERMONT. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY FOR MID-MORNING
WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT
SHORTWAVE WHICH IS TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS HAD INDICATED. ENERGY REALLY DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
BORDER UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS IN QUESTION DUE TO SURFACE INSTABILITY WANING.
STILL THINK WE`LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND COULD EVEN SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONGER CORES BASED ON STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
70S TO LOCALLY 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH
THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR
60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIGS IN THE 050-100 AGL RANGE AND LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 4 TO 10 KT. A BRIEF/WIDELY SCT
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT THROUGH 16Z, THEN AT
KMSS/KSLK IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LOW HOWEVER ON
ACTUAL OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY, BUT SYNOPTIC
SETUP NOT FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OCCURRENCE SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ATTM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011122
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 722 AM EDT SATURDAY...FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH SOME SHOWERS OUT AHEAD MOVING EAST THROUGH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VERMONT. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY FOR MID-MORNING
WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT
SHORTWAVE WHICH IS TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS HAD INDICATED. ENERGY REALLY DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
BORDER UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS IN QUESTION DUE TO SURFACE INSTABILITY WANING.
STILL THINK WE`LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND COULD EVEN SEE
SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONGER CORES BASED ON STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
70S TO LOCALLY 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH
THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR
60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIGS IN THE 050-100 AGL RANGE AND LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 4 TO 10 KT. A BRIEF/WIDELY SCT
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT THROUGH 16Z, THEN AT
KMSS/KSLK IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LOW HOWEVER ON
ACTUAL OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY, BUT SYNOPTIC
SETUP NOT FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OCCURRENCE SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ATTM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OUT AHEAD.
SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE TUG HILL WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
THROUGH SUNRISE, AND NORTHEAST VERMONT SHORTLY THEREAFTER. BEHIND
THIS ACTIVITY FOR MID-MORNING WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AS WE AWAIT
THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH IS TRENDING A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD INDICATED. ENERGY REALLY
DOESN`T REACH THE CWA BORDER UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS IN QUESTION DUE TO SURFACE
INSTABILITY WANING. STILL THINK WE`LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND COULD
EVEN SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONGER CORES BASED ON STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S TO LOCALLY 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH
THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR
60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIGS IN THE 050-100 AGL RANGE AND LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 4 TO 10 KT. A BRIEF/WIDELY SCT
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT THROUGH 16Z, THEN AT
KMSS/KSLK IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LOW HOWEVER ON
ACTUAL OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY, BUT SYNOPTIC
SETUP NOT FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OCCURRENCE SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ATTM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OUT AHEAD.
SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE TUG HILL WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
THROUGH SUNRISE, AND NORTHEAST VERMONT SHORTLY THEREAFTER. BEHIND
THIS ACTIVITY FOR MID-MORNING WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AS WE AWAIT
THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH IS TRENDING A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD INDICATED. ENERGY REALLY
DOESN`T REACH THE CWA BORDER UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS IN QUESTION DUE TO SURFACE
INSTABILITY WANING. STILL THINK WE`LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND COULD
EVEN SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONGER CORES BASED ON STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S TO LOCALLY 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH
THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR
60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIGS IN THE 050-100 AGL RANGE AND LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 4 TO 10 KT. A BRIEF/WIDELY SCT
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT THROUGH 16Z, THEN AT
KMSS/KSLK IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LOW HOWEVER ON
ACTUAL OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY, BUT SYNOPTIC
SETUP NOT FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OCCURRENCE SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ATTM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OUT AHEAD.
SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE TUG HILL WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
THROUGH SUNRISE, AND NORTHEAST VERMONT SHORTLY THEREAFTER. BEHIND
THIS ACTIVITY FOR MID-MORNING WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AS WE AWAIT
THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH IS TRENDING A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD INDICATED. ENERGY REALLY
DOESN`T REACH THE CWA BORDER UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS IN QUESTION DUE TO SURFACE
INSTABILITY WANING. STILL THINK WE`LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND COULD
EVEN SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONGER CORES BASED ON STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S TO LOCALLY 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH
THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR
60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIGS IN THE 050-100 AGL RANGE AND LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 4 TO 10 KT. A BRIEF/WIDELY SCT
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT THROUGH 16Z, THEN AT
KMSS/KSLK IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LOW HOWEVER ON
ACTUAL OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY, BUT SYNOPTIC
SETUP NOT FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OCCURRENCE SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ATTM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OUT AHEAD.
SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE TUG HILL WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
THROUGH SUNRISE, AND NORTHEAST VERMONT SHORTLY THEREAFTER. BEHIND
THIS ACTIVITY FOR MID-MORNING WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AS WE AWAIT
THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH IS TRENDING A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD INDICATED. ENERGY REALLY
DOESN`T REACH THE CWA BORDER UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS IN QUESTION DUE TO SURFACE
INSTABILITY WANING. STILL THINK WE`LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND COULD
EVEN SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONGER CORES BASED ON STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S TO LOCALLY 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH
THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR
60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIGS IN THE 050-100 AGL RANGE AND LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 4 TO 10 KT. A BRIEF/WIDELY SCT
SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT THROUGH 16Z, THEN AT
KMSS/KSLK IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LOW HOWEVER ON
ACTUAL OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY, BUT SYNOPTIC
SETUP NOT FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OCCURRENCE SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ATTM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KALY 011100
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
700 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY. A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS W-CNTRL NY AND WRN PA. SCT SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CNTRL-ERN NY...AND
SRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. VERY LITTLE CG LTG IS OCCURRING OVER
UPSTATE NY WITH A MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. A MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION IN THE 6.5-6.8C/KM RANGE. H500 TEMPS
WILL FALL CLOSE TO -14C TO -16C FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH.
THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY FOR ANY
SUSTAINED CONVECTION...WITH THE NAM STILL PAINTING SBCAPE VALUES
OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH SOME GREATER POCKETS...WHILE THE GFS IS IN
THE 100-500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE GREATER SBCAPES NORTH. 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-45 KT RANGE...BUT THE BETTER SHEAR
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE BETTER SHEAR IS
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SFC DEWPTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S WITH SPOTTY 60F READINGS. IT APPEARS A FEW MULTI-
CELLS/CELLULAR CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR ANY STRONG TALLER
UPDRAFTS MORE INSTABILITY WOULD NEED TO BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE CELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ANY CONVECTION
WITH THE COLD POOL/STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD PEA TO PERHAPS
DIME/PENNY SIZE HAIL. THE MARGINAL RISK FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OUTSIDE OF THE ALY FCST AREA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS ON TRACK
FROM SPC.

THE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS NOON AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGH
TEMPS GETTING INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT
FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME MID/U80S
ARE POSSIBLE. U60S TO U70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BTWN 6-9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE...AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN. THERE MAYBE BE PATCHY FOG WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG. LOWS WERE FAVORED WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH M50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO L50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS...BERKS...NRN
TACONICS...AND SRN VT.

SUNDAY...THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY CLOSE
TO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
VIRGINIAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING. THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW H850
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO +15C TO +17C. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE SW FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW/W
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...INCLEMENT WEATHER RETURNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES MAY BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
INCREASING BULK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE.
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ALOFT WITH THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7C/KM RANGE OVER THE FCST
AREA BY THE PM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS RISE
BACK TO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. CHC AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR MONDAY...AND TAPERED TO CHC POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO
L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S
TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT.GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON
THE LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. BASED ON THIS...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED HOWEVER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. HAVE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION  F THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND ABOUT
5 DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S (BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LULL IS THEN EXPECTED. THE NEXT WAVE
WILL HAVE THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH
VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF EXPECTED CONVECTION. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AND PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT
AT KGFL AND KPSF.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY. THESE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND PERHAPS SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 011100
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
700 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY. A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS W-CNTRL NY AND WRN PA. SCT SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CNTRL-ERN NY...AND
SRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. VERY LITTLE CG LTG IS OCCURRING OVER
UPSTATE NY WITH A MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. A MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION IN THE 6.5-6.8C/KM RANGE. H500 TEMPS
WILL FALL CLOSE TO -14C TO -16C FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH.
THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY FOR ANY
SUSTAINED CONVECTION...WITH THE NAM STILL PAINTING SBCAPE VALUES
OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH SOME GREATER POCKETS...WHILE THE GFS IS IN
THE 100-500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE GREATER SBCAPES NORTH. 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-45 KT RANGE...BUT THE BETTER SHEAR
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE BETTER SHEAR IS
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SFC DEWPTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S WITH SPOTTY 60F READINGS. IT APPEARS A FEW MULTI-
CELLS/CELLULAR CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR ANY STRONG TALLER
UPDRAFTS MORE INSTABILITY WOULD NEED TO BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE CELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ANY CONVECTION
WITH THE COLD POOL/STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD PEA TO PERHAPS
DIME/PENNY SIZE HAIL. THE MARGINAL RISK FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OUTSIDE OF THE ALY FCST AREA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS ON TRACK
FROM SPC.

THE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS NOON AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGH
TEMPS GETTING INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT
FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME MID/U80S
ARE POSSIBLE. U60S TO U70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BTWN 6-9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE...AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN. THERE MAYBE BE PATCHY FOG WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG. LOWS WERE FAVORED WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH M50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO L50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS...BERKS...NRN
TACONICS...AND SRN VT.

SUNDAY...THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY CLOSE
TO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
VIRGINIAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING. THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW H850
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO +15C TO +17C. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE SW FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW/W
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...INCLEMENT WEATHER RETURNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES MAY BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
INCREASING BULK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE.
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ALOFT WITH THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7C/KM RANGE OVER THE FCST
AREA BY THE PM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS RISE
BACK TO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. CHC AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR MONDAY...AND TAPERED TO CHC POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO
L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S
TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT.GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON
THE LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. BASED ON THIS...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED HOWEVER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. HAVE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION  F THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND ABOUT
5 DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S (BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LULL IS THEN EXPECTED. THE NEXT WAVE
WILL HAVE THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH
VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF EXPECTED CONVECTION. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AND PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT
AT KGFL AND KPSF.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY. THESE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND PERHAPS SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011100
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
700 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY. A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS W-CNTRL NY AND WRN PA. SCT SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CNTRL-ERN NY...AND
SRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. VERY LITTLE CG LTG IS OCCURRING OVER
UPSTATE NY WITH A MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. A MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION IN THE 6.5-6.8C/KM RANGE. H500 TEMPS
WILL FALL CLOSE TO -14C TO -16C FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH.
THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY FOR ANY
SUSTAINED CONVECTION...WITH THE NAM STILL PAINTING SBCAPE VALUES
OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH SOME GREATER POCKETS...WHILE THE GFS IS IN
THE 100-500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE GREATER SBCAPES NORTH. 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-45 KT RANGE...BUT THE BETTER SHEAR
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE BETTER SHEAR IS
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SFC DEWPTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S WITH SPOTTY 60F READINGS. IT APPEARS A FEW MULTI-
CELLS/CELLULAR CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR ANY STRONG TALLER
UPDRAFTS MORE INSTABILITY WOULD NEED TO BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE CELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ANY CONVECTION
WITH THE COLD POOL/STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD PEA TO PERHAPS
DIME/PENNY SIZE HAIL. THE MARGINAL RISK FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OUTSIDE OF THE ALY FCST AREA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS ON TRACK
FROM SPC.

THE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS NOON AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGH
TEMPS GETTING INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT
FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME MID/U80S
ARE POSSIBLE. U60S TO U70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BTWN 6-9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE...AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN. THERE MAYBE BE PATCHY FOG WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG. LOWS WERE FAVORED WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH M50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO L50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS...BERKS...NRN
TACONICS...AND SRN VT.

SUNDAY...THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY CLOSE
TO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
VIRGINIAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING. THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW H850
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO +15C TO +17C. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE SW FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW/W
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...INCLEMENT WEATHER RETURNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES MAY BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
INCREASING BULK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE.
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ALOFT WITH THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7C/KM RANGE OVER THE FCST
AREA BY THE PM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS RISE
BACK TO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. CHC AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR MONDAY...AND TAPERED TO CHC POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO
L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S
TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT.GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON
THE LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. BASED ON THIS...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED HOWEVER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. HAVE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION  F THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND ABOUT
5 DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S (BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LULL IS THEN EXPECTED. THE NEXT WAVE
WILL HAVE THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH
VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF EXPECTED CONVECTION. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AND PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT
AT KGFL AND KPSF.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY. THESE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND PERHAPS SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 011100
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
700 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY. A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS W-CNTRL NY AND WRN PA. SCT SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CNTRL-ERN NY...AND
SRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. VERY LITTLE CG LTG IS OCCURRING OVER
UPSTATE NY WITH A MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. A MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION IN THE 6.5-6.8C/KM RANGE. H500 TEMPS
WILL FALL CLOSE TO -14C TO -16C FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH.
THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY FOR ANY
SUSTAINED CONVECTION...WITH THE NAM STILL PAINTING SBCAPE VALUES
OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH SOME GREATER POCKETS...WHILE THE GFS IS IN
THE 100-500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE GREATER SBCAPES NORTH. 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-45 KT RANGE...BUT THE BETTER SHEAR
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE BETTER SHEAR IS
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SFC DEWPTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S WITH SPOTTY 60F READINGS. IT APPEARS A FEW MULTI-
CELLS/CELLULAR CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR ANY STRONG TALLER
UPDRAFTS MORE INSTABILITY WOULD NEED TO BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE CELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ANY CONVECTION
WITH THE COLD POOL/STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD PEA TO PERHAPS
DIME/PENNY SIZE HAIL. THE MARGINAL RISK FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OUTSIDE OF THE ALY FCST AREA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS ON TRACK
FROM SPC.

THE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS NOON AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGH
TEMPS GETTING INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT
FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME MID/U80S
ARE POSSIBLE. U60S TO U70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BTWN 6-9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE...AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN. THERE MAYBE BE PATCHY FOG WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG. LOWS WERE FAVORED WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH M50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO L50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS...BERKS...NRN
TACONICS...AND SRN VT.

SUNDAY...THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY CLOSE
TO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
VIRGINIAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING. THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW H850
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO +15C TO +17C. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE SW FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW/W
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...INCLEMENT WEATHER RETURNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES MAY BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
INCREASING BULK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE.
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ALOFT WITH THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7C/KM RANGE OVER THE FCST
AREA BY THE PM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS RISE
BACK TO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. CHC AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR MONDAY...AND TAPERED TO CHC POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO
L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S
TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT.GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON
THE LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. BASED ON THIS...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED HOWEVER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. HAVE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION  F THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND ABOUT
5 DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S (BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LULL IS THEN EXPECTED. THE NEXT WAVE
WILL HAVE THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH
VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF EXPECTED CONVECTION. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AND PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT
AT KGFL AND KPSF.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY. THESE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND PERHAPS SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 011100
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
700 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY. A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS W-CNTRL NY AND WRN PA. SCT SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CNTRL-ERN NY...AND
SRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. VERY LITTLE CG LTG IS OCCURRING OVER
UPSTATE NY WITH A MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. A MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION IN THE 6.5-6.8C/KM RANGE. H500 TEMPS
WILL FALL CLOSE TO -14C TO -16C FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH.
THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY FOR ANY
SUSTAINED CONVECTION...WITH THE NAM STILL PAINTING SBCAPE VALUES
OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH SOME GREATER POCKETS...WHILE THE GFS IS IN
THE 100-500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE GREATER SBCAPES NORTH. 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-45 KT RANGE...BUT THE BETTER SHEAR
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE BETTER SHEAR IS
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SFC DEWPTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S WITH SPOTTY 60F READINGS. IT APPEARS A FEW MULTI-
CELLS/CELLULAR CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR ANY STRONG TALLER
UPDRAFTS MORE INSTABILITY WOULD NEED TO BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE CELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ANY CONVECTION
WITH THE COLD POOL/STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD PEA TO PERHAPS
DIME/PENNY SIZE HAIL. THE MARGINAL RISK FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OUTSIDE OF THE ALY FCST AREA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS ON TRACK
FROM SPC.

THE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS NOON AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGH
TEMPS GETTING INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT
FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME MID/U80S
ARE POSSIBLE. U60S TO U70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BTWN 6-9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE...AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN. THERE MAYBE BE PATCHY FOG WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG. LOWS WERE FAVORED WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH M50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO L50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS...BERKS...NRN
TACONICS...AND SRN VT.

SUNDAY...THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY CLOSE
TO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
VIRGINIAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING. THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW H850
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO +15C TO +17C. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE SW FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW/W
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...INCLEMENT WEATHER RETURNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES MAY BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
INCREASING BULK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE.
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ALOFT WITH THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7C/KM RANGE OVER THE FCST
AREA BY THE PM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS RISE
BACK TO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. CHC AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR MONDAY...AND TAPERED TO CHC POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO
L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S
TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT.GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON
THE LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. BASED ON THIS...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED HOWEVER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. HAVE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION  F THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND ABOUT
5 DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S (BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LULL IS THEN EXPECTED. THE NEXT WAVE
WILL HAVE THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH
VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF EXPECTED CONVECTION. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AND PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT
AT KGFL AND KPSF.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY. THESE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND PERHAPS SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 011100
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
700 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY. A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS W-CNTRL NY AND WRN PA. SCT SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CNTRL-ERN NY...AND
SRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. VERY LITTLE CG LTG IS OCCURRING OVER
UPSTATE NY WITH A MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. A MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION IN THE 6.5-6.8C/KM RANGE. H500 TEMPS
WILL FALL CLOSE TO -14C TO -16C FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH.
THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY FOR ANY
SUSTAINED CONVECTION...WITH THE NAM STILL PAINTING SBCAPE VALUES
OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH SOME GREATER POCKETS...WHILE THE GFS IS IN
THE 100-500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE GREATER SBCAPES NORTH. 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-45 KT RANGE...BUT THE BETTER SHEAR
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE BETTER SHEAR IS
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SFC DEWPTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S WITH SPOTTY 60F READINGS. IT APPEARS A FEW MULTI-
CELLS/CELLULAR CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR ANY STRONG TALLER
UPDRAFTS MORE INSTABILITY WOULD NEED TO BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE CELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ANY CONVECTION
WITH THE COLD POOL/STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD PEA TO PERHAPS
DIME/PENNY SIZE HAIL. THE MARGINAL RISK FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OUTSIDE OF THE ALY FCST AREA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS ON TRACK
FROM SPC.

THE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS NOON AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGH
TEMPS GETTING INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT
FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME MID/U80S
ARE POSSIBLE. U60S TO U70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BTWN 6-9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE...AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN. THERE MAYBE BE PATCHY FOG WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG. LOWS WERE FAVORED WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH M50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO L50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS...BERKS...NRN
TACONICS...AND SRN VT.

SUNDAY...THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY CLOSE
TO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
VIRGINIAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING. THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW H850
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO +15C TO +17C. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE SW FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW/W
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...INCLEMENT WEATHER RETURNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES MAY BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
INCREASING BULK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE.
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ALOFT WITH THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7C/KM RANGE OVER THE FCST
AREA BY THE PM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS RISE
BACK TO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. CHC AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR MONDAY...AND TAPERED TO CHC POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO
L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S
TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT.GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON
THE LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. BASED ON THIS...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED HOWEVER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. HAVE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION  F THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND ABOUT
5 DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S (BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LULL IS THEN EXPECTED. THE NEXT WAVE
WILL HAVE THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH
VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF EXPECTED CONVECTION. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AND PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT
AT KGFL AND KPSF.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY. THESE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND PERHAPS SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KBGM 011046
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
646 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
TODAY WITH OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0645 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/POP/SKY
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

3 AM UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA CURRENTLY AND BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
NY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING.

FOR THE DAY TODAY, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO
TAKE HOLD IN RESPONSE TO COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BEHIND DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH EVEN THE NAM INDICATING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE. ALSO, A LAYER OF WARM AIR IN MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE UPSHOT IS ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NY. CERTAINLY NOT ALL DAY RAIN FOR
ANYONE WITH THE DAY GENERALLY FEATURING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S WITH CONTINUING COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER THE AREA UNDER SKIES WHICH
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS.

BEFORE THE THUNDER THREAT MONDAY HOWEVER...WE WERE ABLE TO REMOVE
WHAT REMAINED OF THE SHOWER-THUNDER CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING...AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR OUR REGION
TO BE BETWEEN EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT. COMBINE THAT WITH AN
ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL BE INITIALLY FAIRLY DRY...AND AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS-THUNDER SUNDAY LOOKS MINIMAL. CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS ONE OR MORE
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO MOISTENING AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SUNDAY NIGHT.

SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK INCLUDES OUR ENTIRE AREA IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS QUITE WARRANTED.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH AND
GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH...YET A MORE-THAN-ADEQUATE MIX OF
BOTH OVER OUR REGION. MODELS DEPICT OUR REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET...AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
/40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER/. UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN TIMING
OF INITIAL SHORTWAVES...THE CLOUD COVER OF WHICH COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY...BUT OVERALL THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE MONDAY COULD
BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...SUGGESTS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE CELLS. HOWEVER...SOME
HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL SINCE A THICKER PORTION OF THE CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXISTS WELL ALOFT INTO HAIL-GROWTH TEMPERATURES
/PARTICULARLY IN THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM SOUNDINGS/.

SHOWERS-STORMS WILL EXIT MONDAY EVENING...LEAVING THINGS FAIRLY
QUIET DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...RESULTING
IN LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL...THOUGH A FURTHER DECREASE IN ALREADY
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR SOME PERIODS. FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT LITTLE PRECIP UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH
CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY WILL FEATURE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH THE RISK OF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM FOR ALL OF THE SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THIS HAS NOT
BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. BARRING ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THAT OCCUR
IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT, ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH VFR
PREVAILING FOR MOST SITES. WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE LOOK TO BE
TOO STRONG FOR FOG AT KELM BUT MORE DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS
AT KAVP THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME FOG OR MIST SO WE HAVE
INDICATED MVFR VISBYS LATE TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
15 KNOTS. THESE WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.


.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...PCF



000
FXUS61 KBGM 011046
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
646 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
TODAY WITH OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0645 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/POP/SKY
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

3 AM UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA CURRENTLY AND BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
NY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING.

FOR THE DAY TODAY, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO
TAKE HOLD IN RESPONSE TO COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BEHIND DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH EVEN THE NAM INDICATING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE. ALSO, A LAYER OF WARM AIR IN MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE UPSHOT IS ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NY. CERTAINLY NOT ALL DAY RAIN FOR
ANYONE WITH THE DAY GENERALLY FEATURING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S WITH CONTINUING COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER THE AREA UNDER SKIES WHICH
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS.

BEFORE THE THUNDER THREAT MONDAY HOWEVER...WE WERE ABLE TO REMOVE
WHAT REMAINED OF THE SHOWER-THUNDER CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING...AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR OUR REGION
TO BE BETWEEN EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT. COMBINE THAT WITH AN
ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL BE INITIALLY FAIRLY DRY...AND AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS-THUNDER SUNDAY LOOKS MINIMAL. CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS ONE OR MORE
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO MOISTENING AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SUNDAY NIGHT.

SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK INCLUDES OUR ENTIRE AREA IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS QUITE WARRANTED.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH AND
GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH...YET A MORE-THAN-ADEQUATE MIX OF
BOTH OVER OUR REGION. MODELS DEPICT OUR REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET...AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
/40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER/. UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN TIMING
OF INITIAL SHORTWAVES...THE CLOUD COVER OF WHICH COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY...BUT OVERALL THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE MONDAY COULD
BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...SUGGESTS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE CELLS. HOWEVER...SOME
HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL SINCE A THICKER PORTION OF THE CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXISTS WELL ALOFT INTO HAIL-GROWTH TEMPERATURES
/PARTICULARLY IN THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM SOUNDINGS/.

SHOWERS-STORMS WILL EXIT MONDAY EVENING...LEAVING THINGS FAIRLY
QUIET DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...RESULTING
IN LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL...THOUGH A FURTHER DECREASE IN ALREADY
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR SOME PERIODS. FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT LITTLE PRECIP UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH
CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY WILL FEATURE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH THE RISK OF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM FOR ALL OF THE SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THIS HAS NOT
BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. BARRING ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THAT OCCUR
IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT, ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH VFR
PREVAILING FOR MOST SITES. WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE LOOK TO BE
TOO STRONG FOR FOG AT KELM BUT MORE DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS
AT KAVP THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME FOG OR MIST SO WE HAVE
INDICATED MVFR VISBYS LATE TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
15 KNOTS. THESE WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.


.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 011046
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
646 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
TODAY WITH OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0645 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/POP/SKY
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

3 AM UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA CURRENTLY AND BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
NY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING.

FOR THE DAY TODAY, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO
TAKE HOLD IN RESPONSE TO COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BEHIND DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH EVEN THE NAM INDICATING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE. ALSO, A LAYER OF WARM AIR IN MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE UPSHOT IS ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NY. CERTAINLY NOT ALL DAY RAIN FOR
ANYONE WITH THE DAY GENERALLY FEATURING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S WITH CONTINUING COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER THE AREA UNDER SKIES WHICH
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS.

BEFORE THE THUNDER THREAT MONDAY HOWEVER...WE WERE ABLE TO REMOVE
WHAT REMAINED OF THE SHOWER-THUNDER CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING...AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR OUR REGION
TO BE BETWEEN EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT. COMBINE THAT WITH AN
ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL BE INITIALLY FAIRLY DRY...AND AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS-THUNDER SUNDAY LOOKS MINIMAL. CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS ONE OR MORE
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO MOISTENING AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SUNDAY NIGHT.

SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK INCLUDES OUR ENTIRE AREA IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS QUITE WARRANTED.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH AND
GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH...YET A MORE-THAN-ADEQUATE MIX OF
BOTH OVER OUR REGION. MODELS DEPICT OUR REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET...AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
/40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER/. UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN TIMING
OF INITIAL SHORTWAVES...THE CLOUD COVER OF WHICH COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY...BUT OVERALL THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE MONDAY COULD
BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...SUGGESTS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE CELLS. HOWEVER...SOME
HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL SINCE A THICKER PORTION OF THE CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXISTS WELL ALOFT INTO HAIL-GROWTH TEMPERATURES
/PARTICULARLY IN THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM SOUNDINGS/.

SHOWERS-STORMS WILL EXIT MONDAY EVENING...LEAVING THINGS FAIRLY
QUIET DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...RESULTING
IN LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL...THOUGH A FURTHER DECREASE IN ALREADY
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR SOME PERIODS. FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT LITTLE PRECIP UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH
CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY WILL FEATURE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH THE RISK OF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM FOR ALL OF THE SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THIS HAS NOT
BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. BARRING ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THAT OCCUR
IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT, ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH VFR
PREVAILING FOR MOST SITES. WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE LOOK TO BE
TOO STRONG FOR FOG AT KELM BUT MORE DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS
AT KAVP THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME FOG OR MIST SO WE HAVE
INDICATED MVFR VISBYS LATE TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
15 KNOTS. THESE WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.


.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...PCF



000
FXUS61 KOKX 011023
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
623 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY AND
FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO T/TD/SKY
BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE REINFORCED FROM TIME TO TIME AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND A VORTEX OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

THE FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN
NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING
ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A THERMAL/PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH DURING THE AFTN AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVE. NAM IS THE
MOST ROBUST WITH THE ACTIVITY...BUT THINK IT IS OVERDONE. HAVE
MAINTAINED SCHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SBCAPE BETWEEN
500-1000J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35-45KT COULD RESULT IN
A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN
14-16C. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...LOWER 90S IN THE NY/NJ METRO AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THESE VALUES DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTN.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH ANY SHRA/TSTM
ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND PUSHING E.

WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING
A FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AS THE SECOND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. SW FLOW AND THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING THE HUMIDITY BACK BRIEFLY. CHC POPS
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR MON AFTN/NIGHT. WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SIMILAR BULK SHEAR TO TODAY AND BETTER
UPPER SUPPORT THERE COULD BE A SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AROUND MAINLY N AND W OF NYC.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE EXIST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT
IT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA SOMETIME MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT
WITH A LOW CHC OF POPS PRECEDING IT ON TUE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY THIS MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NYC AREA
TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS IS TOO LOW...AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS START OFF LIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE AT KJFK. ANY GUSTS DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT.
SEAS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD TO 5 OR 6 FEET. WILL NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO THE SCA IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT UNTIL 4Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY NEED A FEW EXTRA
HOURS ADDED TO THE END TIME...HOWEVER WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-
EVALUATE THE NEW 12Z DATA.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN 4 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A
SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN
THE NEW WEEK...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS ON MONDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011023
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
623 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY AND
FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO T/TD/SKY
BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE REINFORCED FROM TIME TO TIME AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND A VORTEX OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

THE FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN
NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING
ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A THERMAL/PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH DURING THE AFTN AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVE. NAM IS THE
MOST ROBUST WITH THE ACTIVITY...BUT THINK IT IS OVERDONE. HAVE
MAINTAINED SCHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SBCAPE BETWEEN
500-1000J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35-45KT COULD RESULT IN
A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN
14-16C. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...LOWER 90S IN THE NY/NJ METRO AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THESE VALUES DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTN.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH ANY SHRA/TSTM
ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND PUSHING E.

WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING
A FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AS THE SECOND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. SW FLOW AND THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING THE HUMIDITY BACK BRIEFLY. CHC POPS
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR MON AFTN/NIGHT. WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SIMILAR BULK SHEAR TO TODAY AND BETTER
UPPER SUPPORT THERE COULD BE A SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AROUND MAINLY N AND W OF NYC.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE EXIST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT
IT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA SOMETIME MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT
WITH A LOW CHC OF POPS PRECEDING IT ON TUE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY THIS MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NYC AREA
TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS IS TOO LOW...AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS START OFF LIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE AT KJFK. ANY GUSTS DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT.
SEAS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD TO 5 OR 6 FEET. WILL NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO THE SCA IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT UNTIL 4Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY NEED A FEW EXTRA
HOURS ADDED TO THE END TIME...HOWEVER WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-
EVALUATE THE NEW 12Z DATA.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN 4 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A
SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN
THE NEW WEEK...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS ON MONDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KOKX 011023
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
623 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY AND
FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO T/TD/SKY
BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE REINFORCED FROM TIME TO TIME AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND A VORTEX OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

THE FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN
NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING
ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A THERMAL/PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH DURING THE AFTN AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVE. NAM IS THE
MOST ROBUST WITH THE ACTIVITY...BUT THINK IT IS OVERDONE. HAVE
MAINTAINED SCHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SBCAPE BETWEEN
500-1000J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35-45KT COULD RESULT IN
A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN
14-16C. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...LOWER 90S IN THE NY/NJ METRO AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THESE VALUES DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTN.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH ANY SHRA/TSTM
ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND PUSHING E.

WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING
A FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AS THE SECOND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. SW FLOW AND THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING THE HUMIDITY BACK BRIEFLY. CHC POPS
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR MON AFTN/NIGHT. WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SIMILAR BULK SHEAR TO TODAY AND BETTER
UPPER SUPPORT THERE COULD BE A SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AROUND MAINLY N AND W OF NYC.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE EXIST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT
IT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA SOMETIME MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT
WITH A LOW CHC OF POPS PRECEDING IT ON TUE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY THIS MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NYC AREA
TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS IS TOO LOW...AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS START OFF LIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE AT KJFK. ANY GUSTS DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT.
SEAS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD TO 5 OR 6 FEET. WILL NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO THE SCA IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT UNTIL 4Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY NEED A FEW EXTRA
HOURS ADDED TO THE END TIME...HOWEVER WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-
EVALUATE THE NEW 12Z DATA.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN 4 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A
SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN
THE NEW WEEK...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS ON MONDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KALY 010923
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
523 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY. A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE ONTARIO AND WRN NY THIS
MORNING. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS CNTRL-NRN NY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION IN THE 6.5-6.8C/KM RANGE. H500 TEMPS
WILL FALL CLOSE TO -14C TO -16C FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH.
THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY FOR ANY
SUSTAINED CONVECTION...WITH THE NAM STILL PAINTING SBCAPE VALUES
OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH POCKETS GREATER...WHILE THE GFS IS IN THE
200-500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE GREATER SBCAPES NORTH. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-45 KT RANGE...BUT THE BETTER SHEAR IS
OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE BETTER SHEAR IS
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SFC DEWPTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S WITH SPOTTY 60F READINGS. IT APPEARS A FEW MULTI-
CELLS/CELLULAR CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR ANY STRONG
TALLER UPDRAFTS MORE INSTABILITY WOULD NEED TO BE UTILIZED. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE CELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ANY
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD POOL/STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD PEA TO
PERHAPS DIME SIZE HAIL. THE MARGINAL RISK FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OUTSIDE OF THE ALY FCST AREA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS ON TRACK
FROM SPC.

THE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH HIGH TEMPS GETTING
INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME MID/U80S ARE POSSIBLE.
U60S TO U70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BTWN 6-9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE...AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN. THERE MAYBE BE PATCHY FOG WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG. LOWS WERE FAVORED WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH M50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO L50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS...BERKS...NRN
TACONICS...AND SRN VT.

SUNDAY...THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY CLOSE
TO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
VIRGINIAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING. THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW H850
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO +15C TO +17C. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE SW FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW/W
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...INCLEMENT WEATHER RETURNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES MAY BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
INCREASING BULK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE.
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ALOFT WITH THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7C/KM RANGE OVER THE FCST
AREA BY THE PM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS RISE
BACK TO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. CHC AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR MONDAY...AND TAPERED TO CHC POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO
L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S
TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT.GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON
THE LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. BASED ON THIS...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED HOWEVER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. HAVE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION  F THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND ABOUT
5 DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S (BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST BATCH OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE
ADDED TEMPO GROUPS TO KGFL...KALB AND KPSF FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE NEXT WAVE WILL HAVE THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED
THREAT WITH VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF EXPECTED CONVECTION.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED
WITH ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE WITH THIS AFTERNOON STORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 35 TO 50 THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO
AROUND 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY. THESE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND PERHAPS SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010923
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
523 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY. A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE ONTARIO AND WRN NY THIS
MORNING. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS CNTRL-NRN NY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION IN THE 6.5-6.8C/KM RANGE. H500 TEMPS
WILL FALL CLOSE TO -14C TO -16C FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH.
THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY FOR ANY
SUSTAINED CONVECTION...WITH THE NAM STILL PAINTING SBCAPE VALUES
OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH POCKETS GREATER...WHILE THE GFS IS IN THE
200-500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE GREATER SBCAPES NORTH. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-45 KT RANGE...BUT THE BETTER SHEAR IS
OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE BETTER SHEAR IS
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SFC DEWPTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S WITH SPOTTY 60F READINGS. IT APPEARS A FEW MULTI-
CELLS/CELLULAR CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR ANY STRONG
TALLER UPDRAFTS MORE INSTABILITY WOULD NEED TO BE UTILIZED. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE CELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ANY
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD POOL/STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD PEA TO
PERHAPS DIME SIZE HAIL. THE MARGINAL RISK FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OUTSIDE OF THE ALY FCST AREA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS ON TRACK
FROM SPC.

THE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH HIGH TEMPS GETTING
INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME MID/U80S ARE POSSIBLE.
U60S TO U70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BTWN 6-9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE...AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN. THERE MAYBE BE PATCHY FOG WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG. LOWS WERE FAVORED WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH M50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO L50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS...BERKS...NRN
TACONICS...AND SRN VT.

SUNDAY...THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY CLOSE
TO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
VIRGINIAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING. THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW H850
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO +15C TO +17C. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE SW FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW/W
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...INCLEMENT WEATHER RETURNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES MAY BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
INCREASING BULK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE.
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ALOFT WITH THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7C/KM RANGE OVER THE FCST
AREA BY THE PM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS RISE
BACK TO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. CHC AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR MONDAY...AND TAPERED TO CHC POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO
L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S
TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT.GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON
THE LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. BASED ON THIS...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED HOWEVER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. HAVE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION  F THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND ABOUT
5 DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S (BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST BATCH OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE
ADDED TEMPO GROUPS TO KGFL...KALB AND KPSF FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE NEXT WAVE WILL HAVE THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED
THREAT WITH VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF EXPECTED CONVECTION.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED
WITH ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE WITH THIS AFTERNOON STORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 35 TO 50 THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO
AROUND 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY. THESE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND PERHAPS SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 010923
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
523 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY. A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE ONTARIO AND WRN NY THIS
MORNING. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS CNTRL-NRN NY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION IN THE 6.5-6.8C/KM RANGE. H500 TEMPS
WILL FALL CLOSE TO -14C TO -16C FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH.
THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY FOR ANY
SUSTAINED CONVECTION...WITH THE NAM STILL PAINTING SBCAPE VALUES
OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH POCKETS GREATER...WHILE THE GFS IS IN THE
200-500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE GREATER SBCAPES NORTH. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-45 KT RANGE...BUT THE BETTER SHEAR IS
OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE BETTER SHEAR IS
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SFC DEWPTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S WITH SPOTTY 60F READINGS. IT APPEARS A FEW MULTI-
CELLS/CELLULAR CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR ANY STRONG
TALLER UPDRAFTS MORE INSTABILITY WOULD NEED TO BE UTILIZED. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE CELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ANY
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD POOL/STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD PEA TO
PERHAPS DIME SIZE HAIL. THE MARGINAL RISK FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OUTSIDE OF THE ALY FCST AREA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS ON TRACK
FROM SPC.

THE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH HIGH TEMPS GETTING
INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME MID/U80S ARE POSSIBLE.
U60S TO U70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BTWN 6-9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE...AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN. THERE MAYBE BE PATCHY FOG WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG. LOWS WERE FAVORED WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH M50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO L50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS...BERKS...NRN
TACONICS...AND SRN VT.

SUNDAY...THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY CLOSE
TO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
VIRGINIAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING. THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW H850
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO +15C TO +17C. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE SW FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW/W
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...INCLEMENT WEATHER RETURNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES MAY BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
INCREASING BULK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE.
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ALOFT WITH THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7C/KM RANGE OVER THE FCST
AREA BY THE PM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS RISE
BACK TO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. CHC AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR MONDAY...AND TAPERED TO CHC POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO
L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S
TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT.GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON
THE LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. BASED ON THIS...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED HOWEVER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. HAVE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION  F THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND ABOUT
5 DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S (BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST BATCH OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE
ADDED TEMPO GROUPS TO KGFL...KALB AND KPSF FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE NEXT WAVE WILL HAVE THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED
THREAT WITH VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF EXPECTED CONVECTION.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED
WITH ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE WITH THIS AFTERNOON STORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 35 TO 50 THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO
AROUND 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY. THESE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND PERHAPS SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010923
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
523 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY. A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE ONTARIO AND WRN NY THIS
MORNING. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS CNTRL-NRN NY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION IN THE 6.5-6.8C/KM RANGE. H500 TEMPS
WILL FALL CLOSE TO -14C TO -16C FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH.
THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY FOR ANY
SUSTAINED CONVECTION...WITH THE NAM STILL PAINTING SBCAPE VALUES
OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH POCKETS GREATER...WHILE THE GFS IS IN THE
200-500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE GREATER SBCAPES NORTH. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-45 KT RANGE...BUT THE BETTER SHEAR IS
OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE BETTER SHEAR IS
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SFC DEWPTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S WITH SPOTTY 60F READINGS. IT APPEARS A FEW MULTI-
CELLS/CELLULAR CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR ANY STRONG
TALLER UPDRAFTS MORE INSTABILITY WOULD NEED TO BE UTILIZED. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE CELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ANY
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD POOL/STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD PEA TO
PERHAPS DIME SIZE HAIL. THE MARGINAL RISK FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OUTSIDE OF THE ALY FCST AREA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS ON TRACK
FROM SPC.

THE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH HIGH TEMPS GETTING
INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME MID/U80S ARE POSSIBLE.
U60S TO U70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BTWN 6-9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE...AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN. THERE MAYBE BE PATCHY FOG WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG. LOWS WERE FAVORED WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH M50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO L50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS...BERKS...NRN
TACONICS...AND SRN VT.

SUNDAY...THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY CLOSE
TO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
VIRGINIAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING. THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW H850
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO +15C TO +17C. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE SW FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW/W
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...INCLEMENT WEATHER RETURNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES MAY BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
INCREASING BULK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE.
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ALOFT WITH THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7C/KM RANGE OVER THE FCST
AREA BY THE PM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS RISE
BACK TO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. CHC AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR MONDAY...AND TAPERED TO CHC POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO
L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S
TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT.GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON
THE LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. BASED ON THIS...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED HOWEVER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. HAVE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION  F THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND ABOUT
5 DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S (BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST BATCH OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE
ADDED TEMPO GROUPS TO KGFL...KALB AND KPSF FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE NEXT WAVE WILL HAVE THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED
THREAT WITH VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF EXPECTED CONVECTION.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED
WITH ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE WITH THIS AFTERNOON STORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 35 TO 50 THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO
AROUND 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY. THESE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND PERHAPS SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 010842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY. A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE ONTARIO AND WRN NY THIS
MORNING. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS CNTRL-NRN NY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION IN THE 6.5-6.8C/KM RANGE. H500 TEMPS
WILL FALL CLOSE TO -14C TO -16C FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH.
THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY FOR ANY
SUSTAINED CONVECTION...WITH THE NAM STILL PAINTING SBCAPE VALUES
OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH POCKETS GREATER...WHILE THE GFS IS IN THE
200-500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE GREATER SBCAPES NORTH. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-45 KT RANGE...BUT THE BETTER SHEAR IS
OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE BETTER SHEAR IS
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SFC DEWPTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S WITH SPOTTY 60F READINGS. IT APPEARS A FEW MULTI-
CELLS/CELLULAR CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR ANY STRONG
TALLER UPDRAFTS MORE INSTABILITY WOULD NEED TO BE UTILIZED. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE CELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ANY
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD POOL/STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD PEA TO
PERHAPS DIME SIZE HAIL. THE MARGINAL RISK FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OUTSIDE OF THE ALY FCST AREA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS ON TRACK
FROM SPC.

THE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH HIGH TEMPS GETTING
INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME MID/U80S ARE POSSIBLE.
U60S TO U70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BTWN 6-9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE...AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN. THERE MAYBE BE PATCHY FOG WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG. LOWS WERE FAVORED WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH M50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO L50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS...BERKS...NRN
TACONICS...AND SRN VT.

SUNDAY...THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY CLOSE
TO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
VIRGINIAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING. THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW H850
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO +15C TO +17C. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE SW FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW/W
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...INCLEMENT WEATHER RETURNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES MAY BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
INCREASING BULK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE.
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ALOFT WITH THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7C/KM RANGE OVER THE FCST
AREA BY THE PM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS RISE
BACK TO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. CHC AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR MONDAY...AND TAPERED TO CHC POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO
L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S
TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT.GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON
THE LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. BASED ON THIS...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED HOWEVER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. HAVE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION  F THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND ABOUT
5 DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S (BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST BATCH OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS EXPECTED CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE STORMS SHOULD MISS KGFL. THE NEXT WAVE WILL HAVE
THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH VCSH SINCE DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF EXPECTED
CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
FOR SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT KGFL AND KPSF.
ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 12Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED
WITH ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT.


OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 35 TO 50 THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO
AROUND 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY. THESE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND PERHAPS SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY. A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE ONTARIO AND WRN NY THIS
MORNING. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS CNTRL-NRN NY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION IN THE 6.5-6.8C/KM RANGE. H500 TEMPS
WILL FALL CLOSE TO -14C TO -16C FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH.
THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY FOR ANY
SUSTAINED CONVECTION...WITH THE NAM STILL PAINTING SBCAPE VALUES
OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH POCKETS GREATER...WHILE THE GFS IS IN THE
200-500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE GREATER SBCAPES NORTH. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-45 KT RANGE...BUT THE BETTER SHEAR IS
OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE BETTER SHEAR IS
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SFC DEWPTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S WITH SPOTTY 60F READINGS. IT APPEARS A FEW MULTI-
CELLS/CELLULAR CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR ANY STRONG
TALLER UPDRAFTS MORE INSTABILITY WOULD NEED TO BE UTILIZED. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE CELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ANY
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD POOL/STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD PEA TO
PERHAPS DIME SIZE HAIL. THE MARGINAL RISK FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OUTSIDE OF THE ALY FCST AREA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS ON TRACK
FROM SPC.

THE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH HIGH TEMPS GETTING
INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME MID/U80S ARE POSSIBLE.
U60S TO U70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BTWN 6-9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE...AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN. THERE MAYBE BE PATCHY FOG WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG. LOWS WERE FAVORED WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH M50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO L50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS...BERKS...NRN
TACONICS...AND SRN VT.

SUNDAY...THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY CLOSE
TO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
VIRGINIAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING. THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW H850
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO +15C TO +17C. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE SW FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW/W
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...INCLEMENT WEATHER RETURNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES MAY BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
INCREASING BULK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE.
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ALOFT WITH THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7C/KM RANGE OVER THE FCST
AREA BY THE PM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS RISE
BACK TO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. CHC AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR MONDAY...AND TAPERED TO CHC POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO
L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S
TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT.GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON
THE LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. BASED ON THIS...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED HOWEVER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. HAVE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION  F THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND ABOUT
5 DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S (BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST BATCH OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS EXPECTED CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE STORMS SHOULD MISS KGFL. THE NEXT WAVE WILL HAVE
THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH VCSH SINCE DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF EXPECTED
CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
FOR SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT KGFL AND KPSF.
ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 12Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED
WITH ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT.


OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 35 TO 50 THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO
AROUND 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY. THESE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND PERHAPS SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY. A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE ONTARIO AND WRN NY THIS
MORNING. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS CNTRL-NRN NY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION IN THE 6.5-6.8C/KM RANGE. H500 TEMPS
WILL FALL CLOSE TO -14C TO -16C FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH.
THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY FOR ANY
SUSTAINED CONVECTION...WITH THE NAM STILL PAINTING SBCAPE VALUES
OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH POCKETS GREATER...WHILE THE GFS IS IN THE
200-500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE GREATER SBCAPES NORTH. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-45 KT RANGE...BUT THE BETTER SHEAR IS
OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE BETTER SHEAR IS
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SFC DEWPTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S WITH SPOTTY 60F READINGS. IT APPEARS A FEW MULTI-
CELLS/CELLULAR CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR ANY STRONG
TALLER UPDRAFTS MORE INSTABILITY WOULD NEED TO BE UTILIZED. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE CELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ANY
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD POOL/STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD PEA TO
PERHAPS DIME SIZE HAIL. THE MARGINAL RISK FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OUTSIDE OF THE ALY FCST AREA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS ON TRACK
FROM SPC.

THE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH HIGH TEMPS GETTING
INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME MID/U80S ARE POSSIBLE.
U60S TO U70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BTWN 6-9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE...AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN. THERE MAYBE BE PATCHY FOG WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG. LOWS WERE FAVORED WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH M50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO L50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS...BERKS...NRN
TACONICS...AND SRN VT.

SUNDAY...THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY CLOSE
TO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
VIRGINIAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING. THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW H850
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO +15C TO +17C. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE SW FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW/W
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...INCLEMENT WEATHER RETURNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES MAY BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
INCREASING BULK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE.
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ALOFT WITH THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7C/KM RANGE OVER THE FCST
AREA BY THE PM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS RISE
BACK TO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. CHC AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR MONDAY...AND TAPERED TO CHC POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO
L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S
TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT.GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON
THE LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. BASED ON THIS...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED HOWEVER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. HAVE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION  F THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND ABOUT
5 DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S (BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST BATCH OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS EXPECTED CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE STORMS SHOULD MISS KGFL. THE NEXT WAVE WILL HAVE
THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH VCSH SINCE DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF EXPECTED
CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
FOR SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT KGFL AND KPSF.
ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 12Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED
WITH ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT.


OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 35 TO 50 THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO
AROUND 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY. THESE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND PERHAPS SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.  A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY. A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE ONTARIO AND WRN NY THIS
MORNING. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS CNTRL-NRN NY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION IN THE 6.5-6.8C/KM RANGE. H500 TEMPS
WILL FALL CLOSE TO -14C TO -16C FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH.
THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY FOR ANY
SUSTAINED CONVECTION...WITH THE NAM STILL PAINTING SBCAPE VALUES
OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH POCKETS GREATER...WHILE THE GFS IS IN THE
200-500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE GREATER SBCAPES NORTH. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-45 KT RANGE...BUT THE BETTER SHEAR IS
OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE BETTER SHEAR IS
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SFC DEWPTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S WITH SPOTTY 60F READINGS. IT APPEARS A FEW MULTI-
CELLS/CELLULAR CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR ANY STRONG
TALLER UPDRAFTS MORE INSTABILITY WOULD NEED TO BE UTILIZED. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE CELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ANY
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD POOL/STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD PEA TO
PERHAPS DIME SIZE HAIL. THE MARGINAL RISK FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OUTSIDE OF THE ALY FCST AREA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS ON TRACK
FROM SPC.

THE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH HIGH TEMPS GETTING
INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME MID/U80S ARE POSSIBLE.
U60S TO U70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BTWN 6-9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE...AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN. THERE MAYBE BE PATCHY FOG WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG. LOWS WERE FAVORED WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH M50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO L50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS...BERKS...NRN
TACONICS...AND SRN VT.

SUNDAY...THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY CLOSE
TO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
VIRGINIAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING. THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW H850
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO +15C TO +17C. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE SW FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW/W
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...INCLEMENT WEATHER RETURNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES MAY BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
INCREASING BULK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE.
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ALOFT WITH THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7C/KM RANGE OVER THE FCST
AREA BY THE PM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.

SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS RISE
BACK TO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. CHC AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR MONDAY...AND TAPERED TO CHC POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO
L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S
TO M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT.GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON
THE LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. BASED ON THIS...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED HOWEVER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. HAVE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION  F THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND ABOUT
5 DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S (BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST BATCH OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS EXPECTED CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE STORMS SHOULD MISS KGFL. THE NEXT WAVE WILL HAVE
THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH VCSH SINCE DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF EXPECTED
CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
FOR SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT KGFL AND KPSF.
ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 12Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED
WITH ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT.


OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 35 TO 50 THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP TO
AROUND 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY. THESE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND PERHAPS SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBGM 010821
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
421 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
TODAY WITH OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CURRENTLY
AND BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NY. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING.

FOR THE DAY TODAY, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO
TAKE HOLD IN RESPONSE TO COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BEHIND DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH EVEN THE NAM INDICATING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE. ALSO, A LAYER OF WARM AIR IN MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE UPSHOT IS ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NY. CERTAINLY NOT ALL DAY RAIN FOR
ANYONE WITH THE DAY GENERALLY FEATURING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S WITH CONTINUING COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER THE AREA UNDER SKIES WHICH
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS.

BEFORE THE THUNDER THREAT MONDAY HOWEVER...WE WERE ABLE TO REMOVE
WHAT REMAINED OF THE SHOWER-THUNDER CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING...AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR OUR REGION
TO BE BETWEEN EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT. COMBINE THAT WITH AN
ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL BE INITIALLY FAIRLY DRY...AND AT THIS POINT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS-THUNDER SUNDAY LOOKS MINIMAL. CHANCES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS ONE OR MORE
SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO MOISTENING AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SUNDAY NIGHT.

SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK INCLUDES OUR ENTIRE AREA IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WHICH APPEARS QUITE WARRANTED.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH AND
GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH...YET A MORE-THAN-ADEQUATE MIX OF
BOTH OVER OUR REGION. MODELS DEPICT OUR REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET...AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
/40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER/. UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN TIMING
OF INITIAL SHORTWAVES...THE CLOUD COVER OF WHICH COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY...BUT OVERALL THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE MONDAY COULD
BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...SUGGESTS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE CELLS. HOWEVER...SOME
HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL SINCE A THICKER PORTION OF THE CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXISTS WELL ALOFT INTO HAIL-GROWTH TEMPERATURES
/PARTICULARLY IN THE MORE UNSTABLE NAM SOUNDINGS/.

SHOWERS-STORMS WILL EXIT MONDAY EVENING...LEAVING THINGS FAIRLY
QUIET DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...RESULTING
IN LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL...THOUGH A FURTHER DECREASE IN ALREADY
LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR SOME PERIODS. FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT LITTLE PRECIP UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH
CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO KSYR WITH
SOME THUNDER NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE NORTH SO HAVE MENTIONED VCTS
UNTIL 07Z. ALSO EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO AFFECT KRME BUT ANY THUNDER
SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH. NOT EXPECTING ANY RESTRICTIONS WITH THESE
SHOWERS WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH
KITH/KBGM/KELM/KAVP MAY ALSO SEE SOME BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BY LATER TONIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH THE RISK OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR ALL OF THE SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THIS HAS
NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. BARRING ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THAT
OCCUR IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL.


.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010821
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
421 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY AND
FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE REINFORCED FROM TIME TO TIME
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND A VORTEX OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

THE FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN
NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING
ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A THERMAL/PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH DURING THE AFTN AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVE. NAM IS THE
MOST ROBUST WITH THE ACTIVITY...BUT THINK IT IS OVERDONE. HAVE
MAINTAINED SCHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SBCAPE BETWEEN
500-1000J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35-45KT COULD RESULT IN
A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN
14-16C. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...LOWER 90S IN THE NY/NJ METRO AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THESE VALUES DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTN.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH ANY SHRA/TSTM
ACTIVITY PUSHING E.

WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING
A FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AS THE SECOND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. SW FLOW AND THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING THE HUMIDITY BACK BRIEFLY. CHC POPS
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR MON AFTN/NIGHT. WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SIMILAR BULK SHEAR TO TODAY AND BETTER
UPPER SUPPORT THERE COULD BE A SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AROUND MAINLY N AND W OF NYC.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE EXIST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT
IT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA SOMETIME MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT
WITH A LOW CHC OF POPS PRECEDING IT ON TUE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY THIS MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NYC AREA
TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS IS TOO LOW...AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS START OFF LIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE AT KJFK. ANY GUSTS DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT.
SEAS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD TO 5 OR 6 FEET. WILL NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO THE SCA IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT UNTIL 4Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY NEED A FEW EXTRA
HOURS ADDED TO THE END TIME...HOWEVER WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-
EVALUATE THE NEW 12Z DATA.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN 4 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A
SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN
THE NEW WEEK...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS ON MONDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010821
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
421 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY AND
FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE REINFORCED FROM TIME TO TIME
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND A VORTEX OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

THE FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN
NRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING
ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A THERMAL/PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH DURING THE AFTN AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVE. NAM IS THE
MOST ROBUST WITH THE ACTIVITY...BUT THINK IT IS OVERDONE. HAVE
MAINTAINED SCHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SBCAPE BETWEEN
500-1000J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35-45KT COULD RESULT IN
A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN
14-16C. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...LOWER 90S IN THE NY/NJ METRO AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THESE VALUES DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTN.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH ANY SHRA/TSTM
ACTIVITY PUSHING E.

WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING
A FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AS THE SECOND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. SW FLOW AND THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING THE HUMIDITY BACK BRIEFLY. CHC POPS
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR MON AFTN/NIGHT. WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SIMILAR BULK SHEAR TO TODAY AND BETTER
UPPER SUPPORT THERE COULD BE A SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AROUND MAINLY N AND W OF NYC.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE EXIST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT
IT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA SOMETIME MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT
WITH A LOW CHC OF POPS PRECEDING IT ON TUE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY THIS MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NYC AREA
TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS IS TOO LOW...AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS START OFF LIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE AT KJFK. ANY GUSTS DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 25 KT.
SEAS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD TO 5 OR 6 FEET. WILL NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO THE SCA IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT UNTIL 4Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY NEED A FEW EXTRA
HOURS ADDED TO THE END TIME...HOWEVER WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-
EVALUATE THE NEW 12Z DATA.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN 4 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A
SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN
THE NEW WEEK...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS ON MONDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010820
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
420 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND NORTH
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE
THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...A ROBUST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY ROBUST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EAST ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO (AS OF THE WRITING OF THIS DISCUSSION) PUSHED A COOL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS RESULTED
IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE THE CONVECTION INTENSIFIED TO SEVERE
LEVELS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SINCE WEAKENED AND IS NOW IN THE PROCESS
OF PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

AS FOR TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
NOSE NORTHWARDS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE
BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
IMPULSE OF ENERGY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF 08Z...THE SHORTWAVE COULD BE
SEEN IN WV IMAGERY DIGGING ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. IT WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...JUST AS OUR AIRMASS REACHES ITS GREATEST DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES WILL APPROACH 1000 J/KG AT THE TIME OF ITS
PASSAGE...BUT WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A STRONG
LAKE BREEZE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM LAKE ERIE...THE CONVECTION IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND WELL INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE AND
ITS SHADOW...PLACING THE FOCUS FROM ABOUT GENESEE COUNTY TO THE
FINGER LAKES REGION. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...THE DAY WILL BE LARGELY
RAIN FREE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FROM
FRIDAY...AS H85 TEMPS AVERAGING 12C WILL ONLY ENCOURAGE THE
MERCURY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF
EARLY IN THE EVENING...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC HIGH AS THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WHILE MINS
WILL BE FOUND IN THE MID 50S IN THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS AND
POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE UPSTREAM THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE HAVING UNIVERSALLY SLOWED THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...IT NOW APPEARS THAT SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IF NOT
ENTIRELY DRY...WITH JUST SOME LOW-END CHANCES OF A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EXTREME
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. WITH THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HELPING TO PUSH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE +13C
TO +16C RANGE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT PROMOTING AN
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE/CONSEQUENT GOOD MIXING...AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE A PRE-COLD FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
EASE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE TRAILING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SOME MODEST TIMING DIFFERENCES...IN GENERAL
THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT ATTENDANT TO THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. AT THIS JUNCTURE THE GREATEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL/COVERAGE APPEARS AS IF IT WILL LIKELY FOCUS
ON THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TIME FRAME...DURING WHICH
THE LOW LIKELY POPS FROM OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY LOOKED VERY
REASONABLE AND HAVE THUS BEEN MAINTAINED.

WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY LEVELS SHOULD
INITIALLY BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE UNFAVORABLE PORTION OF THE
DIURNAL CYCLE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GREATLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THAT TIME. THIS COULD HOWEVER CHANGE BY
LATER MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AS RENEWED DIURNAL HEATING MAY LEAD
TO INCREASING INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH THE EXACT AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION WE CAN EXPECT
REMAINING UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOTH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF ANY CLOUD COVER/PRECIP
INITIALLY PRESENT MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION BE REALIZED...ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE
IN PLACE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME STRONGER TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. IN THEIR NEW DAY 3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF OUR REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY...AND THIS LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN
THE ABOVE FACTORS.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SWATH OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD
LEAD TO PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN FOLLOWING
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT.

WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD...LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER/NORTH COUNTRY TO
NEAR 70 ALONG THE LAKESHORES. AFTER THAT...EXPECT READINGS TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING OUT NEAR 80 ON MONDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS
THEN DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE BIG PICTURE...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
FEATURE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND ALLOWING THE LARGE-
SCALE FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION TO TREND MORE QUASI-ZONAL AGAIN BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOR OUR REGION...THIS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THIS PERIOD...WHEN DAILY HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE TREND TOWARD COOLER
WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN BY THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY THEN LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BEFORE INCREASING SURFACE- BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
THEN BRINGS A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE NORTH ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. WHILE THIS WILL SUPPLY OUR REGION WITH
FAIR DRY WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY...A COUPLE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE
STABILIZING INFLUENCES OF THE LAKES.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY...VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AND RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN ENDS OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

THIS SAME BASIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF SOME TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AGAIN ON BOTH LAKES LATER
SUNDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
         EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH



000
FXUS61 KBUF 010820
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
420 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND NORTH
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL PROVIDE
THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...A ROBUST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY ROBUST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EAST ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO (AS OF THE WRITING OF THIS DISCUSSION) PUSHED A COOL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS RESULTED
IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE THE CONVECTION INTENSIFIED TO SEVERE
LEVELS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SINCE WEAKENED AND IS NOW IN THE PROCESS
OF PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

AS FOR TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
NOSE NORTHWARDS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE
BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
IMPULSE OF ENERGY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF 08Z...THE SHORTWAVE COULD BE
SEEN IN WV IMAGERY DIGGING ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. IT WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...JUST AS OUR AIRMASS REACHES ITS GREATEST DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES WILL APPROACH 1000 J/KG AT THE TIME OF ITS
PASSAGE...BUT WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A STRONG
LAKE BREEZE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM LAKE ERIE...THE CONVECTION IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND WELL INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE AND
ITS SHADOW...PLACING THE FOCUS FROM ABOUT GENESEE COUNTY TO THE
FINGER LAKES REGION. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...THE DAY WILL BE LARGELY
RAIN FREE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FROM
FRIDAY...AS H85 TEMPS AVERAGING 12C WILL ONLY ENCOURAGE THE
MERCURY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF
EARLY IN THE EVENING...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC HIGH AS THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WHILE MINS
WILL BE FOUND IN THE MID 50S IN THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS AND
POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE UPSTREAM THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE HAVING UNIVERSALLY SLOWED THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...IT NOW APPEARS THAT SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IF NOT
ENTIRELY DRY...WITH JUST SOME LOW-END CHANCES OF A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EXTREME
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. WITH THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HELPING TO PUSH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE +13C
TO +16C RANGE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT PROMOTING AN
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE/CONSEQUENT GOOD MIXING...AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE A PRE-COLD FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
EASE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE TRAILING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SOME MODEST TIMING DIFFERENCES...IN GENERAL
THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT ATTENDANT TO THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. AT THIS JUNCTURE THE GREATEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL/COVERAGE APPEARS AS IF IT WILL LIKELY FOCUS
ON THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TIME FRAME...DURING WHICH
THE LOW LIKELY POPS FROM OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY LOOKED VERY
REASONABLE AND HAVE THUS BEEN MAINTAINED.

WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY LEVELS SHOULD
INITIALLY BE HELD IN CHECK BY THE UNFAVORABLE PORTION OF THE
DIURNAL CYCLE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GREATLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THAT TIME. THIS COULD HOWEVER CHANGE BY
LATER MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AS RENEWED DIURNAL HEATING MAY LEAD
TO INCREASING INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH THE EXACT AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION WE CAN EXPECT
REMAINING UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOTH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF ANY CLOUD COVER/PRECIP
INITIALLY PRESENT MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION BE REALIZED...ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE
IN PLACE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME STRONGER TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. IN THEIR NEW DAY 3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF OUR REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY...AND THIS LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN
THE ABOVE FACTORS.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SWATH OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD
LEAD TO PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN FOLLOWING
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT.

WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD...LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER/NORTH COUNTRY TO
NEAR 70 ALONG THE LAKESHORES. AFTER THAT...EXPECT READINGS TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING OUT NEAR 80 ON MONDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS
THEN DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE BIG PICTURE...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
FEATURE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND ALLOWING THE LARGE-
SCALE FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION TO TREND MORE QUASI-ZONAL AGAIN BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOR OUR REGION...THIS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THIS PERIOD...WHEN DAILY HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE TREND TOWARD COOLER
WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN BY THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY THEN LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BEFORE INCREASING SURFACE- BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
THEN BRINGS A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE NORTH ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. WHILE THIS WILL SUPPLY OUR REGION WITH
FAIR DRY WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY...A COUPLE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE
STABILIZING INFLUENCES OF THE LAKES.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY...VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AND RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN ENDS OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

THIS SAME BASIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF SOME TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AGAIN ON BOTH LAKES LATER
SUNDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
         EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010751
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OUT AHEAD.
SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE TUG HILL WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
THROUGH SUNRISE, AND NORTHEAST VERMONT SHORTLY THEREAFTER. BEHIND
THIS ACTIVITY FOR MID-MORNING WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AS WE AWAIT
THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH IS TRENDING A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD INDICATED. ENERGY REALLY
DOESN`T REACH THE CWA BORDER UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS IN QUESTION DUE TO SURFACE
INSTABILITY WANING. STILL THINK WE`LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND COULD
EVEN SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONGER CORES BASED ON STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S TO LOCALLY 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH
THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR
60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 5-10 KTS. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER TO AFFECT KSLK/KPBG/KBTV AND POSSIBLY KMPV/KMSS TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER REDEVELOP
AFTER 16Z THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER LOOKING AT LATEST INFORMATION
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH
AT THE KMSS TERMINAL IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010710
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
310 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 956 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASING CYCLONIC 700-500MB FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES REGION IS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
STRETCHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY TO NEAR
WATERTOWN NY. THESE LEADING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EWD 20-30 MPH
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL ULTIMATELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30
POPS ACROSS NRN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AREAWIDE WITH RAINFALL AMTS GENERALLY
EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...BUT STILL SEEING CGS AT 02Z WITH CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENEARLLY
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING
GENERALLY THROUGH THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST
NORMS. CERTAINLY NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 5-10 KTS. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER TO AFFECT KSLK/KPBG/KBTV AND POSSIBLY KMPV/KMSS TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER REDEVELOP
AFTER 16Z THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER LOOKING AT LATEST INFORMATION
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH
AT THE KMSS TERMINAL IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010710
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
310 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 956 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASING CYCLONIC 700-500MB FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES REGION IS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
STRETCHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY TO NEAR
WATERTOWN NY. THESE LEADING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EWD 20-30 MPH
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL ULTIMATELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30
POPS ACROSS NRN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AREAWIDE WITH RAINFALL AMTS GENERALLY
EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...BUT STILL SEEING CGS AT 02Z WITH CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENEARLLY
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING
GENERALLY THROUGH THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST
NORMS. CERTAINLY NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 5-10 KTS. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER TO AFFECT KSLK/KPBG/KBTV AND POSSIBLY KMPV/KMSS TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER REDEVELOP
AFTER 16Z THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER LOOKING AT LATEST INFORMATION
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH
AT THE KMSS TERMINAL IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG



000
FXUS61 KBGM 010709
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
309 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
TODAY WITH OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CURRENTLY
AND BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NY. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING.

FOR THE DAY TODAY, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO
TAKE HOLD IN RESPONSE TO COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BEHIND DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH EVEN THE NAM INDICATING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE. ALSO, A LAYER OF WARM AIR IN MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE UPSHOT IS ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NY. CERTAINLY NOT ALL DAY RAIN FOR
ANYONE WITH THE DAY GENERALLY FEATURING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S WITH CONTINUING COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER THE AREA UNDER SKIES WHICH
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND SO WILL
INSTABILITY... THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THESE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN... THUS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING SAT AND SUN.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON... WHICH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NY AND PA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT
LITTLE PRECIP UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN
VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO KSYR WITH
SOME THUNDER NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE NORTH SO HAVE MENTIONED VCTS
UNTIL 07Z. ALSO EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO AFFECT KRME BUT ANY THUNDER
SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH. NOT EXPECTING ANY RESTRICTIONS WITH THESE
SHOWERS WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH
KITH/KBGM/KELM/KAVP MAY ALSO SEE SOME BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BY LATER TONIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH THE RISK OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR ALL OF THE SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THIS HAS
NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. BARRING ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THAT
OCCUR IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL.


.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF



000
FXUS61 KBGM 010709
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
309 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
TODAY WITH OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CURRENTLY
AND BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NY. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING.

FOR THE DAY TODAY, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO
TAKE HOLD IN RESPONSE TO COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BEHIND DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. THERE WILL BE SOME DAYTIME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH EVEN THE NAM INDICATING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF
ML CAPE. ALSO, A LAYER OF WARM AIR IN MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE UPSHOT IS ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NY. CERTAINLY NOT ALL DAY RAIN FOR
ANYONE WITH THE DAY GENERALLY FEATURING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S WITH CONTINUING COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER THE AREA UNDER SKIES WHICH
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND SO WILL
INSTABILITY... THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THESE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN... THUS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING SAT AND SUN.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON... WHICH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NY AND PA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT
LITTLE PRECIP UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN
VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO KSYR WITH
SOME THUNDER NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE NORTH SO HAVE MENTIONED VCTS
UNTIL 07Z. ALSO EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO AFFECT KRME BUT ANY THUNDER
SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH. NOT EXPECTING ANY RESTRICTIONS WITH THESE
SHOWERS WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH
KITH/KBGM/KELM/KAVP MAY ALSO SEE SOME BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BY LATER TONIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH THE RISK OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR ALL OF THE SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THIS HAS
NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. BARRING ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THAT
OCCUR IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL.


.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING
VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010619
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
219 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND
NORTH TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...A ROBUST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT 06Z IS
PUSHING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THESE
FEATURES WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL CROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DURING THE REMAINING PRE
DAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY MOONLIT SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.

AFTER DAYBREAK...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
NOSE NORTHWARDS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BULK
OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER IMPULSE OF
ENERGY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS OF 06Z...THE SHORTWAVE COULD BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY
DIGGING ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR. IT WILL CROSS
LAKE ONTARIO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...JUST AS OUR
AIRMASS REACHES ITS GREATEST DIURNAL INSTABILITY. SBCAPES WILL
APPROACH 1000 J/KG AT THE TIME OF ITS PASSAGE...BUT WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE FOUND WELL INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE AND ITS SHADOW...PLACING THE
FOCUS FROM ABOUT GENESEE COUNTY TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION. ALL IN
ALL THOUGH...THE DAY WILL BE LARGELY RAIN FREE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FROM
FRIDAY...AS H85 TEMPS AVERAGING 12C WILL ONLY ENCOURAGE THE MERCURY
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THE UPCOMING NIGHT...ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY
DIE OFF EARLY IN THE EVENING...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH AS THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS WHILE MINS WILL BE FOUND IN THE MID 50S IN THE COOLER SRN
TIER VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL START DRY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...THIS FLOW BETWEEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND LOW
PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD...ALONG WITH A DEGREE OR TWO RISE IN DEWPOINTS.
DAYTIME INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT LACKING
A GOOD FORCING MECHANISM DONT EXPECT TOO MANY STORMS. SUNDAY WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY AS AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON A
SOUTHWEST WIND MAY GUST 25 TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE LARGE HUDSON
BAY UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS SHORTWAVE IS A LITTLE MORE POTENT AND LIFT
FROM THIS FEATURE/NEARING OF AN UPPER LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AND
BUILDING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER FAR NW AREAS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD THE LONG RANGE MODELS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA...AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN
THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
WEAK AND FARTHER WEST ENOUGH TO NOT BE ABLE TO DISLODGE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. THOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL RETREAT SOME...ITS GENERAL PRESENCE WILL SPELL AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COOL TIME FOR THE NORTHEAST.

MONDAY WILL BE THE LAST OF NEAR-TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY
TEMPERATURE WISE AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS JUST
TO OUR WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THIS AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION DRIVING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY
CLEARS THE REGION. THE GFS IS DEPICTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPE VALUES EDGING OVER 1000 J/KG OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES REGION. A 40 KNOT LLJ PRODUCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAY BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS INTO STRONG
STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE COOL WITH CHANCES FOR A RAIN SHOWER
EACH DAY. MULTIPLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...COMBINED WITH DAY TIME INSTABILITY MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE BUFFALO CWA. WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE +21 TO
+23C RANGE...AND 850 HPA DROPPING DOWN TO +6 TO +10C...THERE MAY
EVEN BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THESE SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF BOTH
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW-MID 70S...ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RUN IN THE 50S. SOME WARMING IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW RETREATS NORTHWARD SOME AND A WARM FRONT NEARS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES
ITS WAY THROUGH OUR REGION. OTHERWISE...FAIR VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
IN PLACE.

LATER THIS SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE
NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THIS WILL SUPPLY OUR
REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY...A COUPLE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE
STABILIZING INFLUENCES OF THE LAKES.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AND DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY TO THE
EASTERN ENDS OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

THIS SAME BASIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF SOME SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATER SUNDAY.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
         EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH



000
FXUS61 KBUF 010619
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
219 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND
NORTH TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...A ROBUST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT 06Z IS
PUSHING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THESE
FEATURES WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL CROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DURING THE REMAINING PRE
DAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY MOONLIT SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.

AFTER DAYBREAK...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
NOSE NORTHWARDS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BULK
OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER IMPULSE OF
ENERGY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS OF 06Z...THE SHORTWAVE COULD BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY
DIGGING ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR. IT WILL CROSS
LAKE ONTARIO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...JUST AS OUR
AIRMASS REACHES ITS GREATEST DIURNAL INSTABILITY. SBCAPES WILL
APPROACH 1000 J/KG AT THE TIME OF ITS PASSAGE...BUT WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE FOUND WELL INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE AND ITS SHADOW...PLACING THE
FOCUS FROM ABOUT GENESEE COUNTY TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION. ALL IN
ALL THOUGH...THE DAY WILL BE LARGELY RAIN FREE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FROM
FRIDAY...AS H85 TEMPS AVERAGING 12C WILL ONLY ENCOURAGE THE MERCURY
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THE UPCOMING NIGHT...ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY
DIE OFF EARLY IN THE EVENING...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH AS THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS WHILE MINS WILL BE FOUND IN THE MID 50S IN THE COOLER SRN
TIER VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL START DRY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...THIS FLOW BETWEEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND LOW
PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD...ALONG WITH A DEGREE OR TWO RISE IN DEWPOINTS.
DAYTIME INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT LACKING
A GOOD FORCING MECHANISM DONT EXPECT TOO MANY STORMS. SUNDAY WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY AS AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON A
SOUTHWEST WIND MAY GUST 25 TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE LARGE HUDSON
BAY UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS SHORTWAVE IS A LITTLE MORE POTENT AND LIFT
FROM THIS FEATURE/NEARING OF AN UPPER LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AND
BUILDING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER FAR NW AREAS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD THE LONG RANGE MODELS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA...AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN
THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
WEAK AND FARTHER WEST ENOUGH TO NOT BE ABLE TO DISLODGE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. THOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL RETREAT SOME...ITS GENERAL PRESENCE WILL SPELL AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COOL TIME FOR THE NORTHEAST.

MONDAY WILL BE THE LAST OF NEAR-TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY
TEMPERATURE WISE AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS JUST
TO OUR WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THIS AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION DRIVING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY
CLEARS THE REGION. THE GFS IS DEPICTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPE VALUES EDGING OVER 1000 J/KG OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES REGION. A 40 KNOT LLJ PRODUCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAY BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS INTO STRONG
STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE COOL WITH CHANCES FOR A RAIN SHOWER
EACH DAY. MULTIPLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...COMBINED WITH DAY TIME INSTABILITY MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE BUFFALO CWA. WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE +21 TO
+23C RANGE...AND 850 HPA DROPPING DOWN TO +6 TO +10C...THERE MAY
EVEN BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THESE SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF BOTH
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW-MID 70S...ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RUN IN THE 50S. SOME WARMING IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW RETREATS NORTHWARD SOME AND A WARM FRONT NEARS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES
ITS WAY THROUGH OUR REGION. OTHERWISE...FAIR VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
IN PLACE.

LATER THIS SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE
NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THIS WILL SUPPLY OUR
REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY...A COUPLE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE
STABILIZING INFLUENCES OF THE LAKES.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AND DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY TO THE
EASTERN ENDS OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

THIS SAME BASIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF SOME SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATER SUNDAY.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
         EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH



000
FXUS61 KBUF 010619
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
219 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND
NORTH TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...A ROBUST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT 06Z IS
PUSHING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THESE
FEATURES WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL CROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DURING THE REMAINING PRE
DAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY MOONLIT SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.

AFTER DAYBREAK...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
NOSE NORTHWARDS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BULK
OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER IMPULSE OF
ENERGY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS OF 06Z...THE SHORTWAVE COULD BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY
DIGGING ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR. IT WILL CROSS
LAKE ONTARIO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...JUST AS OUR
AIRMASS REACHES ITS GREATEST DIURNAL INSTABILITY. SBCAPES WILL
APPROACH 1000 J/KG AT THE TIME OF ITS PASSAGE...BUT WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE FOUND WELL INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE AND ITS SHADOW...PLACING THE
FOCUS FROM ABOUT GENESEE COUNTY TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION. ALL IN
ALL THOUGH...THE DAY WILL BE LARGELY RAIN FREE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FROM
FRIDAY...AS H85 TEMPS AVERAGING 12C WILL ONLY ENCOURAGE THE MERCURY
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THE UPCOMING NIGHT...ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY
DIE OFF EARLY IN THE EVENING...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH AS THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS WHILE MINS WILL BE FOUND IN THE MID 50S IN THE COOLER SRN
TIER VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL START DRY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...THIS FLOW BETWEEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND LOW
PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD...ALONG WITH A DEGREE OR TWO RISE IN DEWPOINTS.
DAYTIME INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT LACKING
A GOOD FORCING MECHANISM DONT EXPECT TOO MANY STORMS. SUNDAY WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY AS AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON A
SOUTHWEST WIND MAY GUST 25 TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE LARGE HUDSON
BAY UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS SHORTWAVE IS A LITTLE MORE POTENT AND LIFT
FROM THIS FEATURE/NEARING OF AN UPPER LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AND
BUILDING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER FAR NW AREAS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD THE LONG RANGE MODELS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA...AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN
THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
WEAK AND FARTHER WEST ENOUGH TO NOT BE ABLE TO DISLODGE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. THOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL RETREAT SOME...ITS GENERAL PRESENCE WILL SPELL AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COOL TIME FOR THE NORTHEAST.

MONDAY WILL BE THE LAST OF NEAR-TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY
TEMPERATURE WISE AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS JUST
TO OUR WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THIS AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION DRIVING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY
CLEARS THE REGION. THE GFS IS DEPICTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPE VALUES EDGING OVER 1000 J/KG OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES REGION. A 40 KNOT LLJ PRODUCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAY BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS INTO STRONG
STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE COOL WITH CHANCES FOR A RAIN SHOWER
EACH DAY. MULTIPLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...COMBINED WITH DAY TIME INSTABILITY MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE BUFFALO CWA. WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE +21 TO
+23C RANGE...AND 850 HPA DROPPING DOWN TO +6 TO +10C...THERE MAY
EVEN BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THESE SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF BOTH
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW-MID 70S...ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RUN IN THE 50S. SOME WARMING IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW RETREATS NORTHWARD SOME AND A WARM FRONT NEARS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES
ITS WAY THROUGH OUR REGION. OTHERWISE...FAIR VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
IN PLACE.

LATER THIS SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE
NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THIS WILL SUPPLY OUR
REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY...A COUPLE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE
STABILIZING INFLUENCES OF THE LAKES.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AND DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY TO THE
EASTERN ENDS OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

THIS SAME BASIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF SOME SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATER SUNDAY.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
         EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH



000
FXUS61 KBUF 010619
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
219 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND
NORTH TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...A ROBUST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT 06Z IS
PUSHING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THESE
FEATURES WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL CROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DURING THE REMAINING PRE
DAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY MOONLIT SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.

AFTER DAYBREAK...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
NOSE NORTHWARDS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BULK
OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER IMPULSE OF
ENERGY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS OF 06Z...THE SHORTWAVE COULD BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY
DIGGING ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR. IT WILL CROSS
LAKE ONTARIO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...JUST AS OUR
AIRMASS REACHES ITS GREATEST DIURNAL INSTABILITY. SBCAPES WILL
APPROACH 1000 J/KG AT THE TIME OF ITS PASSAGE...BUT WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE FOUND WELL INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE AND ITS SHADOW...PLACING THE
FOCUS FROM ABOUT GENESEE COUNTY TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION. ALL IN
ALL THOUGH...THE DAY WILL BE LARGELY RAIN FREE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FROM
FRIDAY...AS H85 TEMPS AVERAGING 12C WILL ONLY ENCOURAGE THE MERCURY
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THE UPCOMING NIGHT...ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY
DIE OFF EARLY IN THE EVENING...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH AS THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS WHILE MINS WILL BE FOUND IN THE MID 50S IN THE COOLER SRN
TIER VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL START DRY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...THIS FLOW BETWEEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND LOW
PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD...ALONG WITH A DEGREE OR TWO RISE IN DEWPOINTS.
DAYTIME INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT LACKING
A GOOD FORCING MECHANISM DONT EXPECT TOO MANY STORMS. SUNDAY WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY AS AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON A
SOUTHWEST WIND MAY GUST 25 TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE LARGE HUDSON
BAY UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS SHORTWAVE IS A LITTLE MORE POTENT AND LIFT
FROM THIS FEATURE/NEARING OF AN UPPER LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AND
BUILDING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER FAR NW AREAS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD THE LONG RANGE MODELS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA...AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN
THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
WEAK AND FARTHER WEST ENOUGH TO NOT BE ABLE TO DISLODGE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. THOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL RETREAT SOME...ITS GENERAL PRESENCE WILL SPELL AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COOL TIME FOR THE NORTHEAST.

MONDAY WILL BE THE LAST OF NEAR-TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY
TEMPERATURE WISE AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS JUST
TO OUR WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THIS AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION DRIVING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY
CLEARS THE REGION. THE GFS IS DEPICTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPE VALUES EDGING OVER 1000 J/KG OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES REGION. A 40 KNOT LLJ PRODUCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAY BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS INTO STRONG
STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE COOL WITH CHANCES FOR A RAIN SHOWER
EACH DAY. MULTIPLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...COMBINED WITH DAY TIME INSTABILITY MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE BUFFALO CWA. WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE +21 TO
+23C RANGE...AND 850 HPA DROPPING DOWN TO +6 TO +10C...THERE MAY
EVEN BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THESE SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF BOTH
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW-MID 70S...ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RUN IN THE 50S. SOME WARMING IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW RETREATS NORTHWARD SOME AND A WARM FRONT NEARS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES
ITS WAY THROUGH OUR REGION. OTHERWISE...FAIR VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
IN PLACE.

LATER THIS SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE
NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THIS WILL SUPPLY OUR
REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY...A COUPLE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE
STABILIZING INFLUENCES OF THE LAKES.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AND DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY TO THE
EASTERN ENDS OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

THIS SAME BASIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF SOME SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATER SUNDAY.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
         EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH



000
FXUS61 KBUF 010619
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
219 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND
NORTH TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...A ROBUST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT 06Z IS
PUSHING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THESE
FEATURES WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL CROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DURING THE REMAINING PRE
DAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY MOONLIT SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.

AFTER DAYBREAK...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
NOSE NORTHWARDS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BULK
OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER IMPULSE OF
ENERGY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS OF 06Z...THE SHORTWAVE COULD BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY
DIGGING ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR. IT WILL CROSS
LAKE ONTARIO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...JUST AS OUR
AIRMASS REACHES ITS GREATEST DIURNAL INSTABILITY. SBCAPES WILL
APPROACH 1000 J/KG AT THE TIME OF ITS PASSAGE...BUT WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE FOUND WELL INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE AND ITS SHADOW...PLACING THE
FOCUS FROM ABOUT GENESEE COUNTY TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION. ALL IN
ALL THOUGH...THE DAY WILL BE LARGELY RAIN FREE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FROM
FRIDAY...AS H85 TEMPS AVERAGING 12C WILL ONLY ENCOURAGE THE MERCURY
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THE UPCOMING NIGHT...ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY
DIE OFF EARLY IN THE EVENING...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH AS THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS WHILE MINS WILL BE FOUND IN THE MID 50S IN THE COOLER SRN
TIER VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL START DRY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...THIS FLOW BETWEEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND LOW
PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD...ALONG WITH A DEGREE OR TWO RISE IN DEWPOINTS.
DAYTIME INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT LACKING
A GOOD FORCING MECHANISM DONT EXPECT TOO MANY STORMS. SUNDAY WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY AS AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON A
SOUTHWEST WIND MAY GUST 25 TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE LARGE HUDSON
BAY UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS SHORTWAVE IS A LITTLE MORE POTENT AND LIFT
FROM THIS FEATURE/NEARING OF AN UPPER LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AND
BUILDING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER FAR NW AREAS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD THE LONG RANGE MODELS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA...AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN
THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
WEAK AND FARTHER WEST ENOUGH TO NOT BE ABLE TO DISLODGE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. THOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL RETREAT SOME...ITS GENERAL PRESENCE WILL SPELL AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COOL TIME FOR THE NORTHEAST.

MONDAY WILL BE THE LAST OF NEAR-TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY
TEMPERATURE WISE AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS JUST
TO OUR WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THIS AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION DRIVING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY
CLEARS THE REGION. THE GFS IS DEPICTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPE VALUES EDGING OVER 1000 J/KG OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES REGION. A 40 KNOT LLJ PRODUCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAY BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS INTO STRONG
STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE COOL WITH CHANCES FOR A RAIN SHOWER
EACH DAY. MULTIPLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...COMBINED WITH DAY TIME INSTABILITY MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE BUFFALO CWA. WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE +21 TO
+23C RANGE...AND 850 HPA DROPPING DOWN TO +6 TO +10C...THERE MAY
EVEN BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THESE SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF BOTH
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW-MID 70S...ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RUN IN THE 50S. SOME WARMING IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW RETREATS NORTHWARD SOME AND A WARM FRONT NEARS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES
ITS WAY THROUGH OUR REGION. OTHERWISE...FAIR VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
IN PLACE.

LATER THIS SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE
NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THIS WILL SUPPLY OUR
REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY...A COUPLE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE
STABILIZING INFLUENCES OF THE LAKES.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AND DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY TO THE
EASTERN ENDS OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

THIS SAME BASIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF SOME SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATER SUNDAY.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
         EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH



000
FXUS61 KALY 010558
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
158 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON
MONDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...THE KENX AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR HAS SOME SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND
INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU REGION. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS MOVING
ACROSS THE SRN DACKS. POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT OVER
HAMILTON/HERKIMER AND WARREN COUNTIES. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ALSO
POPPED UP OVER THE BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST NAM/GFS HAS SHOWALTER
VALUES AROUND 0C OVER THE SRN DACKS. A RUMBLE HERE OF THERE IS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH THIS MORNING. LESS IN THE WAY OF ISOLD SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED FROM ALY SOUTH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S TO
M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND OF AUGUST WILL FEATURE GRADUAL
FALLING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO ASSIST WITH
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS. H500 NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...FOR INITIALLY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TERRAIN THEN MIGRATING INTO THE
VALLEYS. PER THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSION...INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH THE NAM REMAINING MORE ROBUST THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. PER SPC...SWODY2 PLACES A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. WITHIN THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SUNSET. VARIABLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION AND WHERE
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE RESULT.
SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN.

SUNDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE IN ADVANCE
OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. AT THIS
TIME...THE NAM DOES SEEM OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKS AND
INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREENS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE DACKS. AS THE H850 TEMPS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE POSITIVE TEENS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR
TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80-85F DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A LARGE CLOSED OFF LOW AT 500
HPA WILL BE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA ON MONDAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE BOUNDARY AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END ON MONDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEASTERN US FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
LOWERING HEIGHTS OVERHEAD...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS AND IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AS WELL. TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME DIURNALLY
FORCED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
BY FRIDAY...AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL INTO ATLANTIC CANADA.  WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS IN CASE THE TROUGH HANGS IN
LONGER...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST BATCH OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS EXPECTED CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE STORMS SHOULD MISS KGFL. THE NEXT WAVE WILL HAVE
THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH VCSH SINCE DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF EXPECTED
CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
FOR SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT KGFL AND KPSF.
ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 12Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED
WITH ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE
TEENS TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASING TO MAXIMUM
VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. MIN RH VALUES SATURDAY WILL
DROP TO AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS INTO THIS EARLY EVENING WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND
5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 010558
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
158 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON
MONDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...THE KENX AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR HAS SOME SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND
INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU REGION. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS MOVING
ACROSS THE SRN DACKS. POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT OVER
HAMILTON/HERKIMER AND WARREN COUNTIES. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ALSO
POPPED UP OVER THE BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST NAM/GFS HAS SHOWALTER
VALUES AROUND 0C OVER THE SRN DACKS. A RUMBLE HERE OF THERE IS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH THIS MORNING. LESS IN THE WAY OF ISOLD SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED FROM ALY SOUTH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S TO
M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND OF AUGUST WILL FEATURE GRADUAL
FALLING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO ASSIST WITH
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS. H500 NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...FOR INITIALLY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TERRAIN THEN MIGRATING INTO THE
VALLEYS. PER THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSION...INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH THE NAM REMAINING MORE ROBUST THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. PER SPC...SWODY2 PLACES A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. WITHIN THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SUNSET. VARIABLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION AND WHERE
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE RESULT.
SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN.

SUNDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE IN ADVANCE
OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. AT THIS
TIME...THE NAM DOES SEEM OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKS AND
INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREENS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE DACKS. AS THE H850 TEMPS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE POSITIVE TEENS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR
TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80-85F DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A LARGE CLOSED OFF LOW AT 500
HPA WILL BE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA ON MONDAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE BOUNDARY AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END ON MONDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEASTERN US FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
LOWERING HEIGHTS OVERHEAD...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS AND IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AS WELL. TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME DIURNALLY
FORCED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
BY FRIDAY...AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL INTO ATLANTIC CANADA.  WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS IN CASE THE TROUGH HANGS IN
LONGER...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST BATCH OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS EXPECTED CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE STORMS SHOULD MISS KGFL. THE NEXT WAVE WILL HAVE
THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH VCSH SINCE DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF EXPECTED
CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
FOR SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT KGFL AND KPSF.
ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 12Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED
WITH ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE
TEENS TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASING TO MAXIMUM
VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. MIN RH VALUES SATURDAY WILL
DROP TO AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS INTO THIS EARLY EVENING WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND
5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV



000
FXUS61 KALY 010558
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
158 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON
MONDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...THE KENX AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR HAS SOME SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND
INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU REGION. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS MOVING
ACROSS THE SRN DACKS. POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT OVER
HAMILTON/HERKIMER AND WARREN COUNTIES. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ALSO
POPPED UP OVER THE BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST NAM/GFS HAS SHOWALTER
VALUES AROUND 0C OVER THE SRN DACKS. A RUMBLE HERE OF THERE IS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH THIS MORNING. LESS IN THE WAY OF ISOLD SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED FROM ALY SOUTH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S TO
M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND OF AUGUST WILL FEATURE GRADUAL
FALLING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO ASSIST WITH
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS. H500 NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...FOR INITIALLY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TERRAIN THEN MIGRATING INTO THE
VALLEYS. PER THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSION...INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH THE NAM REMAINING MORE ROBUST THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. PER SPC...SWODY2 PLACES A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. WITHIN THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SUNSET. VARIABLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION AND WHERE
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE RESULT.
SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN.

SUNDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE IN ADVANCE
OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. AT THIS
TIME...THE NAM DOES SEEM OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKS AND
INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREENS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE DACKS. AS THE H850 TEMPS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE POSITIVE TEENS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR
TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80-85F DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A LARGE CLOSED OFF LOW AT 500
HPA WILL BE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA ON MONDAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE BOUNDARY AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END ON MONDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEASTERN US FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
LOWERING HEIGHTS OVERHEAD...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS AND IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AS WELL. TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME DIURNALLY
FORCED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
BY FRIDAY...AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL INTO ATLANTIC CANADA.  WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS IN CASE THE TROUGH HANGS IN
LONGER...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST BATCH OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS EXPECTED CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE STORMS SHOULD MISS KGFL. THE NEXT WAVE WILL HAVE
THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH VCSH SINCE DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF EXPECTED
CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
FOR SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT KGFL AND KPSF.
ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 12Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED
WITH ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE
TEENS TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASING TO MAXIMUM
VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. MIN RH VALUES SATURDAY WILL
DROP TO AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS INTO THIS EARLY EVENING WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND
5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 010558
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
158 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON
MONDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...THE KENX AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR HAS SOME SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND
INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU REGION. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS MOVING
ACROSS THE SRN DACKS. POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT OVER
HAMILTON/HERKIMER AND WARREN COUNTIES. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ALSO
POPPED UP OVER THE BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST NAM/GFS HAS SHOWALTER
VALUES AROUND 0C OVER THE SRN DACKS. A RUMBLE HERE OF THERE IS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH THIS MORNING. LESS IN THE WAY OF ISOLD SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED FROM ALY SOUTH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S TO
M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND OF AUGUST WILL FEATURE GRADUAL
FALLING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO ASSIST WITH
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS. H500 NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...FOR INITIALLY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TERRAIN THEN MIGRATING INTO THE
VALLEYS. PER THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSION...INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH THE NAM REMAINING MORE ROBUST THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. PER SPC...SWODY2 PLACES A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. WITHIN THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SUNSET. VARIABLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION AND WHERE
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE RESULT.
SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN.

SUNDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE IN ADVANCE
OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. AT THIS
TIME...THE NAM DOES SEEM OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKS AND
INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREENS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE DACKS. AS THE H850 TEMPS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE POSITIVE TEENS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR
TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80-85F DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A LARGE CLOSED OFF LOW AT 500
HPA WILL BE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA ON MONDAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE BOUNDARY AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END ON MONDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEASTERN US FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
LOWERING HEIGHTS OVERHEAD...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS AND IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AS WELL. TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME DIURNALLY
FORCED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
BY FRIDAY...AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL INTO ATLANTIC CANADA.  WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS IN CASE THE TROUGH HANGS IN
LONGER...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST BATCH OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS EXPECTED CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE STORMS SHOULD MISS KGFL. THE NEXT WAVE WILL HAVE
THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH VCSH SINCE DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF EXPECTED
CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
FOR SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT KGFL AND KPSF.
ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 12Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED
WITH ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE
TEENS TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASING TO MAXIMUM
VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. MIN RH VALUES SATURDAY WILL
DROP TO AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS INTO THIS EARLY EVENING WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND
5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 010558
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
158 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON
MONDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...THE KENX AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR HAS SOME SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND
INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU REGION. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS MOVING
ACROSS THE SRN DACKS. POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT OVER
HAMILTON/HERKIMER AND WARREN COUNTIES. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ALSO
POPPED UP OVER THE BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST NAM/GFS HAS SHOWALTER
VALUES AROUND 0C OVER THE SRN DACKS. A RUMBLE HERE OF THERE IS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH THIS MORNING. LESS IN THE WAY OF ISOLD SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED FROM ALY SOUTH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S TO
M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND OF AUGUST WILL FEATURE GRADUAL
FALLING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO ASSIST WITH
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS. H500 NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...FOR INITIALLY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TERRAIN THEN MIGRATING INTO THE
VALLEYS. PER THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSION...INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH THE NAM REMAINING MORE ROBUST THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. PER SPC...SWODY2 PLACES A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. WITHIN THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SUNSET. VARIABLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION AND WHERE
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE RESULT.
SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN.

SUNDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE IN ADVANCE
OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. AT THIS
TIME...THE NAM DOES SEEM OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKS AND
INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREENS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE DACKS. AS THE H850 TEMPS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE POSITIVE TEENS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR
TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80-85F DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A LARGE CLOSED OFF LOW AT 500
HPA WILL BE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA ON MONDAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE BOUNDARY AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END ON MONDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEASTERN US FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
LOWERING HEIGHTS OVERHEAD...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS AND IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AS WELL. TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME DIURNALLY
FORCED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
BY FRIDAY...AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL INTO ATLANTIC CANADA.  WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS IN CASE THE TROUGH HANGS IN
LONGER...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST BATCH OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS EXPECTED CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE STORMS SHOULD MISS KGFL. THE NEXT WAVE WILL HAVE
THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH VCSH SINCE DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF EXPECTED
CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
FOR SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT KGFL AND KPSF.
ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 12Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED
WITH ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE
TEENS TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASING TO MAXIMUM
VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. MIN RH VALUES SATURDAY WILL
DROP TO AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS INTO THIS EARLY EVENING WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND
5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 010558
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
158 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON
MONDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...THE KENX AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR HAS SOME SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND
INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU REGION. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS MOVING
ACROSS THE SRN DACKS. POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT OVER
HAMILTON/HERKIMER AND WARREN COUNTIES. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ALSO
POPPED UP OVER THE BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST NAM/GFS HAS SHOWALTER
VALUES AROUND 0C OVER THE SRN DACKS. A RUMBLE HERE OF THERE IS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH THIS MORNING. LESS IN THE WAY OF ISOLD SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED FROM ALY SOUTH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S TO
M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND OF AUGUST WILL FEATURE GRADUAL
FALLING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO ASSIST WITH
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS. H500 NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...FOR INITIALLY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TERRAIN THEN MIGRATING INTO THE
VALLEYS. PER THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSION...INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH THE NAM REMAINING MORE ROBUST THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. PER SPC...SWODY2 PLACES A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. WITHIN THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SUNSET. VARIABLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION AND WHERE
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE RESULT.
SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN.

SUNDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE IN ADVANCE
OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. AT THIS
TIME...THE NAM DOES SEEM OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKS AND
INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREENS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE DACKS. AS THE H850 TEMPS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE POSITIVE TEENS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR
TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80-85F DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A LARGE CLOSED OFF LOW AT 500
HPA WILL BE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA ON MONDAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE BOUNDARY AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END ON MONDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEASTERN US FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
LOWERING HEIGHTS OVERHEAD...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS AND IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AS WELL. TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME DIURNALLY
FORCED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
BY FRIDAY...AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL INTO ATLANTIC CANADA.  WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS IN CASE THE TROUGH HANGS IN
LONGER...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST BATCH OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS EXPECTED CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE STORMS SHOULD MISS KGFL. THE NEXT WAVE WILL HAVE
THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH VCSH SINCE DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF EXPECTED
CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
FOR SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT KGFL AND KPSF.
ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 12Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED
WITH ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE
TEENS TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASING TO MAXIMUM
VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. MIN RH VALUES SATURDAY WILL
DROP TO AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS INTO THIS EARLY EVENING WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND
5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010551
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
151 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. DEW POINTS HAVE
BEGUN TO RISE BACK INTO THE 60S WHERE MIXING HAS ENDED.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS IN THE CITY AND PARTS OF NE NJ REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S. IT WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER FEW HOURS UNTIL DEW POINTS
BEGIN TO RISE THERE.

OTHERWISE...DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED
AND A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NYC METRO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NYC AREA TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND MORE
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY...AND SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE
AT KJFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010551
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
151 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. DEW POINTS HAVE
BEGUN TO RISE BACK INTO THE 60S WHERE MIXING HAS ENDED.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS IN THE CITY AND PARTS OF NE NJ REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S. IT WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER FEW HOURS UNTIL DEW POINTS
BEGIN TO RISE THERE.

OTHERWISE...DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED
AND A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NYC METRO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NYC AREA TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND MORE
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY...AND SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE
AT KJFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010551
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
151 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. DEW POINTS HAVE
BEGUN TO RISE BACK INTO THE 60S WHERE MIXING HAS ENDED.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS IN THE CITY AND PARTS OF NE NJ REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S. IT WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER FEW HOURS UNTIL DEW POINTS
BEGIN TO RISE THERE.

OTHERWISE...DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED
AND A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NYC METRO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NYC AREA TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND MORE
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY...AND SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE
AT KJFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010551
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
151 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. DEW POINTS HAVE
BEGUN TO RISE BACK INTO THE 60S WHERE MIXING HAS ENDED.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS IN THE CITY AND PARTS OF NE NJ REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S. IT WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER FEW HOURS UNTIL DEW POINTS
BEGIN TO RISE THERE.

OTHERWISE...DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED
AND A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NYC METRO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NYC AREA TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND MORE
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY...AND SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE
AT KJFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW



000
FXUS61 KBGM 010544
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
144 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...
UPDATES FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH. FIRST BATCH WAS FROM NRN
ONONDAGA TO ONEIDA EARLIER. NOW A FEW SPITS WITHIN 30 MILES OF
HERE. MOSTLY LIGHT AND LESS THAN ISOLATED. SHOULD DIE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND BE GONE BY 10 PM ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS. TEMPERATURES
HOLDING UP WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

200 PM EDT UPDATE...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM STARTING AROUND
10PM. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS
THIS EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE UPPR 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND SO WILL
INSTABILITY... THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THESE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN... THUS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING SAT AND SUN.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON... WHICH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NY AND PA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT
LITTLE PRECIP UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN
VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO KSYR WITH
SOME THUNDER NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE NORTH SO HAVE MENTIONED VCTS
UNTIL 07Z. ALSO EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO AFFECT KRME BUT ANY THUNDER
SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH. NOT EXPECTING ANY RESTRICTIONS WITH THESE
SHOWERS WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH
KITH/KBGM/KELM/KAVP MAY ALSO SEE SOME BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BY LATER TONIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH THE RISK OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR ALL OF THE SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THIS HAS
NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. BARRING ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THAT
OCCUR IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL.


.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF



000
FXUS61 KBGM 010544
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
144 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...
UPDATES FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH. FIRST BATCH WAS FROM NRN
ONONDAGA TO ONEIDA EARLIER. NOW A FEW SPITS WITHIN 30 MILES OF
HERE. MOSTLY LIGHT AND LESS THAN ISOLATED. SHOULD DIE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND BE GONE BY 10 PM ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS. TEMPERATURES
HOLDING UP WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

200 PM EDT UPDATE...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM STARTING AROUND
10PM. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS
THIS EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE UPPR 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND SO WILL
INSTABILITY... THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THESE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN... THUS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING SAT AND SUN.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON... WHICH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NY AND PA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT
LITTLE PRECIP UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN
VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO KSYR WITH
SOME THUNDER NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE NORTH SO HAVE MENTIONED VCTS
UNTIL 07Z. ALSO EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO AFFECT KRME BUT ANY THUNDER
SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH. NOT EXPECTING ANY RESTRICTIONS WITH THESE
SHOWERS WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH
KITH/KBGM/KELM/KAVP MAY ALSO SEE SOME BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BY LATER TONIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH THE RISK OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR ALL OF THE SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THIS HAS
NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. BARRING ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THAT
OCCUR IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL.


.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF



000
FXUS61 KBGM 010544
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
144 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...
UPDATES FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH. FIRST BATCH WAS FROM NRN
ONONDAGA TO ONEIDA EARLIER. NOW A FEW SPITS WITHIN 30 MILES OF
HERE. MOSTLY LIGHT AND LESS THAN ISOLATED. SHOULD DIE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND BE GONE BY 10 PM ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS. TEMPERATURES
HOLDING UP WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

200 PM EDT UPDATE...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM STARTING AROUND
10PM. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS
THIS EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE UPPR 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND SO WILL
INSTABILITY... THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THESE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN... THUS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING SAT AND SUN.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON... WHICH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NY AND PA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT
LITTLE PRECIP UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN
VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO KSYR WITH
SOME THUNDER NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE NORTH SO HAVE MENTIONED VCTS
UNTIL 07Z. ALSO EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO AFFECT KRME BUT ANY THUNDER
SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH. NOT EXPECTING ANY RESTRICTIONS WITH THESE
SHOWERS WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH
KITH/KBGM/KELM/KAVP MAY ALSO SEE SOME BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BY LATER TONIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH THE RISK OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR ALL OF THE SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THIS HAS
NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. BARRING ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THAT
OCCUR IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL.


.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF



000
FXUS61 KBGM 010544
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
144 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...
UPDATES FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH. FIRST BATCH WAS FROM NRN
ONONDAGA TO ONEIDA EARLIER. NOW A FEW SPITS WITHIN 30 MILES OF
HERE. MOSTLY LIGHT AND LESS THAN ISOLATED. SHOULD DIE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND BE GONE BY 10 PM ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS. TEMPERATURES
HOLDING UP WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

200 PM EDT UPDATE...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM STARTING AROUND
10PM. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS
THIS EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE UPPR 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND SO WILL
INSTABILITY... THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THESE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN... THUS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING SAT AND SUN.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON... WHICH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NY AND PA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT
LITTLE PRECIP UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN
VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO KSYR WITH
SOME THUNDER NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE NORTH SO HAVE MENTIONED VCTS
UNTIL 07Z. ALSO EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO AFFECT KRME BUT ANY THUNDER
SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH. NOT EXPECTING ANY RESTRICTIONS WITH THESE
SHOWERS WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH
KITH/KBGM/KELM/KAVP MAY ALSO SEE SOME BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES BY LATER TONIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH THE RISK OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR ALL OF THE SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THIS HAS
NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. BARRING ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THAT
OCCUR IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL.


.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCES LATE DAY MONDAY
WITH COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF



000
FXUS61 KALY 010534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON
MONDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...THE KENX AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR HAS SOME SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND
INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU REGION. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS MOVING
ACROSS THE SRN DACKS. POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT OVER
HAMILTON/HERKIMER AND WARREN COUNTIES. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ALSO
POPPED UP OVER THE BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST NAM/GFS HAS SHOWALTER
VALUES AROUND 0C OVER THE SRN DACKS. A RUMBLE HERE OF THERE IS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH THIS MORNING. LESS IN THE WAY OF ISOLD SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED FROM ALY SOUTH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S TO
M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND OF AUGUST WILL FEATURE GRADUAL
FALLING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO ASSIST WITH
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS. H500 NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...FOR INITIALLY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TERRAIN THEN MIGRATING INTO THE
VALLEYS. PER THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSION...INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH THE NAM REMAINING MORE ROBUST THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. PER SPC...SWODY2 PLACES A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. WITHIN THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SUNSET. VARIABLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION AND WHERE
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE RESULT.
SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN.

SUNDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE IN ADVANCE
OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. AT THIS
TIME...THE NAM DOES SEEM OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKS AND
INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREENS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE DACKS. AS THE H850 TEMPS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE POSITIVE TEENS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR
TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80-85F DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A LARGE CLOSED OFF LOW AT 500
HPA WILL BE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA ON MONDAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE BOUNDARY AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END ON MONDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEASTERN US FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
LOWERING HEIGHTS OVERHEAD...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS AND IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AS WELL. TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME DIURNALLY
FORCED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
BY FRIDAY...AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL INTO ATLANTIC CANADA.  WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS IN CASE THE TROUGH HANGS IN
LONGER...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGFL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT IMPACT KGFL THROUGH
02Z SO VCSH THERE UNTIL 02Z. AT KGFL...WE THINK SOME MIST WILL
FORM AROUND 08Z...MOSTLY LIKELY DOWN TO JUST MVFR...BUT THIS
ASSUMES A DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND NO WIND.

WENT WITH MIFG FROM 08Z-11Z AT KPSF AND KPOU TO REFLECT THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT MVFR FOG MIGHT FORM.

AT KALB...WITH A LITTLE MORE OF A SOUTH WIND EXPECTED...KEPT FOG
OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z SAT...WHICH SHOULD LEAVE A MAINLY
VFR DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES...INCREASE
CLOUDS WITH BASES OVER 3000 FEET AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SHOWERS. PLACED VCSH IN ALL BUT KPOU TAF. WE START THIS ABOUT 16Z
ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT BY 18Z...TO THE WEST AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 18KTS AT KALB.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN A
VCSH AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASING TO MAXIMUM
VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. MIN RH VALUES SATURDAY WILL
DROP TO AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS INTO THIS EARLY EVENING WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND
5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV



000
FXUS61 KALY 010534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON
MONDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...THE KENX AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR HAS SOME SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND
INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU REGION. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS MOVING
ACROSS THE SRN DACKS. POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT OVER
HAMILTON/HERKIMER AND WARREN COUNTIES. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ALSO
POPPED UP OVER THE BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST NAM/GFS HAS SHOWALTER
VALUES AROUND 0C OVER THE SRN DACKS. A RUMBLE HERE OF THERE IS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH THIS MORNING. LESS IN THE WAY OF ISOLD SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED FROM ALY SOUTH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S TO
M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND OF AUGUST WILL FEATURE GRADUAL
FALLING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO ASSIST WITH
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS. H500 NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...FOR INITIALLY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TERRAIN THEN MIGRATING INTO THE
VALLEYS. PER THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSION...INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH THE NAM REMAINING MORE ROBUST THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. PER SPC...SWODY2 PLACES A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. WITHIN THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SUNSET. VARIABLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION AND WHERE
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE RESULT.
SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN.

SUNDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE IN ADVANCE
OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. AT THIS
TIME...THE NAM DOES SEEM OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKS AND
INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREENS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE DACKS. AS THE H850 TEMPS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE POSITIVE TEENS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR
TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80-85F DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A LARGE CLOSED OFF LOW AT 500
HPA WILL BE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA ON MONDAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE BOUNDARY AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END ON MONDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEASTERN US FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
LOWERING HEIGHTS OVERHEAD...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS AND IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AS WELL. TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME DIURNALLY
FORCED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
BY FRIDAY...AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL INTO ATLANTIC CANADA.  WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS IN CASE THE TROUGH HANGS IN
LONGER...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGFL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT IMPACT KGFL THROUGH
02Z SO VCSH THERE UNTIL 02Z. AT KGFL...WE THINK SOME MIST WILL
FORM AROUND 08Z...MOSTLY LIKELY DOWN TO JUST MVFR...BUT THIS
ASSUMES A DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND NO WIND.

WENT WITH MIFG FROM 08Z-11Z AT KPSF AND KPOU TO REFLECT THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT MVFR FOG MIGHT FORM.

AT KALB...WITH A LITTLE MORE OF A SOUTH WIND EXPECTED...KEPT FOG
OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z SAT...WHICH SHOULD LEAVE A MAINLY
VFR DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES...INCREASE
CLOUDS WITH BASES OVER 3000 FEET AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SHOWERS. PLACED VCSH IN ALL BUT KPOU TAF. WE START THIS ABOUT 16Z
ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT BY 18Z...TO THE WEST AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 18KTS AT KALB.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN A
VCSH AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASING TO MAXIMUM
VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. MIN RH VALUES SATURDAY WILL
DROP TO AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS INTO THIS EARLY EVENING WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND
5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 010534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON
MONDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...THE KENX AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR HAS SOME SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND
INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU REGION. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS MOVING
ACROSS THE SRN DACKS. POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT OVER
HAMILTON/HERKIMER AND WARREN COUNTIES. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ALSO
POPPED UP OVER THE BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST NAM/GFS HAS SHOWALTER
VALUES AROUND 0C OVER THE SRN DACKS. A RUMBLE HERE OF THERE IS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH THIS MORNING. LESS IN THE WAY OF ISOLD SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED FROM ALY SOUTH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S TO
M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND OF AUGUST WILL FEATURE GRADUAL
FALLING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO ASSIST WITH
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS. H500 NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...FOR INITIALLY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TERRAIN THEN MIGRATING INTO THE
VALLEYS. PER THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSION...INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH THE NAM REMAINING MORE ROBUST THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. PER SPC...SWODY2 PLACES A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. WITHIN THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SUNSET. VARIABLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION AND WHERE
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE RESULT.
SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN.

SUNDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE IN ADVANCE
OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. AT THIS
TIME...THE NAM DOES SEEM OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKS AND
INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREENS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE DACKS. AS THE H850 TEMPS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE POSITIVE TEENS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR
TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80-85F DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A LARGE CLOSED OFF LOW AT 500
HPA WILL BE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA ON MONDAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE BOUNDARY AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END ON MONDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEASTERN US FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
LOWERING HEIGHTS OVERHEAD...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS AND IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AS WELL. TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME DIURNALLY
FORCED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
BY FRIDAY...AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL INTO ATLANTIC CANADA.  WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS IN CASE THE TROUGH HANGS IN
LONGER...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGFL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT IMPACT KGFL THROUGH
02Z SO VCSH THERE UNTIL 02Z. AT KGFL...WE THINK SOME MIST WILL
FORM AROUND 08Z...MOSTLY LIKELY DOWN TO JUST MVFR...BUT THIS
ASSUMES A DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND NO WIND.

WENT WITH MIFG FROM 08Z-11Z AT KPSF AND KPOU TO REFLECT THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT MVFR FOG MIGHT FORM.

AT KALB...WITH A LITTLE MORE OF A SOUTH WIND EXPECTED...KEPT FOG
OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z SAT...WHICH SHOULD LEAVE A MAINLY
VFR DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES...INCREASE
CLOUDS WITH BASES OVER 3000 FEET AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SHOWERS. PLACED VCSH IN ALL BUT KPOU TAF. WE START THIS ABOUT 16Z
ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT BY 18Z...TO THE WEST AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 18KTS AT KALB.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN A
VCSH AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASING TO MAXIMUM
VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. MIN RH VALUES SATURDAY WILL
DROP TO AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS INTO THIS EARLY EVENING WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND
5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 956 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASING CYCLONIC 700-500MB FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES REGION IS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
STRETCHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY TO NEAR
WATERTOWN NY. THESE LEADING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EWD 20-30 MPH
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL ULTIMATELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30
POPS ACROSS NRN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AREAWIDE WITH RAINFALL AMTS GENERALLY
EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...BUT STILL SEEING CGS AT 02Z WITH CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 5-10 KTS. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER TO AFFECT KSLK/KPBG/KBTV AND POSSIBLY KMPV/KMSS TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER REDEVELOP
AFTER 16Z THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER LOOKING AT LATEST INFORMATION
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH
AT THE KMSS TERMINAL IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...JMG/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 956 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASING CYCLONIC 700-500MB FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES REGION IS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
STRETCHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY TO NEAR
WATERTOWN NY. THESE LEADING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EWD 20-30 MPH
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL ULTIMATELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30
POPS ACROSS NRN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AREAWIDE WITH RAINFALL AMTS GENERALLY
EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...BUT STILL SEEING CGS AT 02Z WITH CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 5-10 KTS. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER TO AFFECT KSLK/KPBG/KBTV AND POSSIBLY KMPV/KMSS TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER REDEVELOP
AFTER 16Z THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER LOOKING AT LATEST INFORMATION
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH
AT THE KMSS TERMINAL IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...JMG/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 956 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASING CYCLONIC 700-500MB FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES REGION IS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
STRETCHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY TO NEAR
WATERTOWN NY. THESE LEADING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EWD 20-30 MPH
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL ULTIMATELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30
POPS ACROSS NRN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AREAWIDE WITH RAINFALL AMTS GENERALLY
EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...BUT STILL SEEING CGS AT 02Z WITH CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 5-10 KTS. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER TO AFFECT KSLK/KPBG/KBTV AND POSSIBLY KMPV/KMSS TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER REDEVELOP
AFTER 16Z THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER LOOKING AT LATEST INFORMATION
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH
AT THE KMSS TERMINAL IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...JMG/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 956 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASING CYCLONIC 700-500MB FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES REGION IS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
STRETCHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY TO NEAR
WATERTOWN NY. THESE LEADING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EWD 20-30 MPH
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL ULTIMATELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30
POPS ACROSS NRN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AREAWIDE WITH RAINFALL AMTS GENERALLY
EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...BUT STILL SEEING CGS AT 02Z WITH CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 5-10 KTS. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER TO AFFECT KSLK/KPBG/KBTV AND POSSIBLY KMPV/KMSS TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER REDEVELOP
AFTER 16Z THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER LOOKING AT LATEST INFORMATION
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH
AT THE KMSS TERMINAL IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...JMG/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG



000
FXUS61 KBUF 010302
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1102 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN
FREE. A STRONGER FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL
USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. RADAR MOSAIC AT 11PM
SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WORKING
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE BACK EDGE IS SHOWING
UP NEAR MISSISSAUGA ONTARIO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH PASSES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST EXPECT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO ALSO TAPER OFF.

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ALOFT ON SATURDAY...AND THE SUBSEQUENT
STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONGESTED CUMULUS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES WILL TREND
TOWARDS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS WILL KEEP AREAS EAST OF BOTH LAKES
SUNNIER AND DRIER THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE
APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY FORCE A SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH
THE STABLE LAKE SHADOWS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +11C. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY
AGAIN EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHIFTING THE AXIS OF LOWER HEIGHTS EASTWARD. A
FEW REMAINING SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT WITH WANING DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND
THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT EXPECT THE BULK OF THE NIGHT TO BE DRY.

SUNDAY WILL START DRY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...THIS FLOW BETWEEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD...ALONG WITH A DEGREE OR TWO RISE IN DEWPOINTS. DAYTIME
INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT LACKING A GOOD FORCING MECHANISM DONT EXPECT
TOO MANY STORMS. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AS AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON A SOUTHWEST WIND MAY GUST 25 TO 30 MPH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE LARGE HUDSON
BAY UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS SHORTWAVE IS A LITTLE MORE POTENT AND LIFT
FROM THIS FEATURE/NEARING OF AN UPPER LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AND
BUILDING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER FAR NW AREAS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD THE LONG RANGE MODELS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA...AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN
THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
WEAK AND FARTHER WEST ENOUGH TO NOT BE ABLE TO DISLODGE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. THOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL RETREAT SOME...ITS GENERAL PRESENCE WILL SPELL AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COOL TIME FOR THE NORTHEAST.

MONDAY WILL BE THE LAST OF NEAR-TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY
TEMPERATURE WISE AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS JUST
TO OUR WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THIS AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION DRIVING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY
CLEARS THE REGION. THE GFS IS DEPICTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPE VALUES EDGING OVER 1000 J/KG OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES REGION. A 40 KNOT LLJ PRODUCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAY BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS INTO STRONG
STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE COOL WITH CHANCES FOR A RAIN SHOWER
EACH DAY. MULTIPLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...COMBINED WITH DAY TIME INSTABILITY MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE BUFFALO CWA. WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE +21 TO
+23C RANGE...AND 850 HPA DROPPING DOWN TO +6 TO +10C...THERE MAY
EVEN BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THESE SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF BOTH
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW-MID 70S...ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RUN IN THE 50S. SOME WARMING IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW RETREATS NORTHWARD SOME AND A WARM FRONT NEARS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ON
RADAR AT 11PM SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS
A WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS
MAY CONTAIN BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS...BUT VFR WILL
PREVAIL THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL END OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING FOR SATURDAY MORNING. EXTENSIVE DIURNAL CUMULUS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY WITH MOST AREAS GOING BKN BY MIDDAY. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS
WILL KEEP SKIES MORE CLEAR EAST OF BOTH LAKES. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY
ALONG AND INLAND FROM THE LAKE BREEZES...BUT AGAIN COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN SPARSE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AND DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
TO THE EASTERN ENDS OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

THIS SAME BASIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF SOME SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATER SUNDAY.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010302
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1102 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN
FREE. A STRONGER FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL
USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. RADAR MOSAIC AT 11PM
SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WORKING
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE BACK EDGE IS SHOWING
UP NEAR MISSISSAUGA ONTARIO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH PASSES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST EXPECT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO ALSO TAPER OFF.

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ALOFT ON SATURDAY...AND THE SUBSEQUENT
STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONGESTED CUMULUS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES WILL TREND
TOWARDS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS WILL KEEP AREAS EAST OF BOTH LAKES
SUNNIER AND DRIER THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE
APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY FORCE A SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH
THE STABLE LAKE SHADOWS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +11C. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY
AGAIN EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHIFTING THE AXIS OF LOWER HEIGHTS EASTWARD. A
FEW REMAINING SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT WITH WANING DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND
THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT EXPECT THE BULK OF THE NIGHT TO BE DRY.

SUNDAY WILL START DRY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...THIS FLOW BETWEEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD...ALONG WITH A DEGREE OR TWO RISE IN DEWPOINTS. DAYTIME
INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT LACKING A GOOD FORCING MECHANISM DONT EXPECT
TOO MANY STORMS. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AS AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON A SOUTHWEST WIND MAY GUST 25 TO 30 MPH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE LARGE HUDSON
BAY UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS SHORTWAVE IS A LITTLE MORE POTENT AND LIFT
FROM THIS FEATURE/NEARING OF AN UPPER LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AND
BUILDING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER FAR NW AREAS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD THE LONG RANGE MODELS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA...AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN
THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
WEAK AND FARTHER WEST ENOUGH TO NOT BE ABLE TO DISLODGE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. THOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL RETREAT SOME...ITS GENERAL PRESENCE WILL SPELL AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COOL TIME FOR THE NORTHEAST.

MONDAY WILL BE THE LAST OF NEAR-TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY
TEMPERATURE WISE AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS JUST
TO OUR WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THIS AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION DRIVING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY
CLEARS THE REGION. THE GFS IS DEPICTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPE VALUES EDGING OVER 1000 J/KG OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES REGION. A 40 KNOT LLJ PRODUCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAY BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS INTO STRONG
STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE COOL WITH CHANCES FOR A RAIN SHOWER
EACH DAY. MULTIPLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...COMBINED WITH DAY TIME INSTABILITY MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE BUFFALO CWA. WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE +21 TO
+23C RANGE...AND 850 HPA DROPPING DOWN TO +6 TO +10C...THERE MAY
EVEN BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THESE SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF BOTH
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW-MID 70S...ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RUN IN THE 50S. SOME WARMING IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW RETREATS NORTHWARD SOME AND A WARM FRONT NEARS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ON
RADAR AT 11PM SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS
A WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS
MAY CONTAIN BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS...BUT VFR WILL
PREVAIL THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL END OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING FOR SATURDAY MORNING. EXTENSIVE DIURNAL CUMULUS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY WITH MOST AREAS GOING BKN BY MIDDAY. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS
WILL KEEP SKIES MORE CLEAR EAST OF BOTH LAKES. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY
ALONG AND INLAND FROM THE LAKE BREEZES...BUT AGAIN COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN SPARSE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AND DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
TO THE EASTERN ENDS OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

THIS SAME BASIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF SOME SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATER SUNDAY.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010302
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1102 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN
FREE. A STRONGER FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL
USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. RADAR MOSAIC AT 11PM
SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WORKING
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE BACK EDGE IS SHOWING
UP NEAR MISSISSAUGA ONTARIO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH PASSES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST EXPECT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO ALSO TAPER OFF.

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ALOFT ON SATURDAY...AND THE SUBSEQUENT
STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONGESTED CUMULUS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES WILL TREND
TOWARDS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS WILL KEEP AREAS EAST OF BOTH LAKES
SUNNIER AND DRIER THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE
APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY FORCE A SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH
THE STABLE LAKE SHADOWS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +11C. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY
AGAIN EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHIFTING THE AXIS OF LOWER HEIGHTS EASTWARD. A
FEW REMAINING SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT WITH WANING DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND
THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT EXPECT THE BULK OF THE NIGHT TO BE DRY.

SUNDAY WILL START DRY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...THIS FLOW BETWEEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD...ALONG WITH A DEGREE OR TWO RISE IN DEWPOINTS. DAYTIME
INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT LACKING A GOOD FORCING MECHANISM DONT EXPECT
TOO MANY STORMS. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AS AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON A SOUTHWEST WIND MAY GUST 25 TO 30 MPH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE LARGE HUDSON
BAY UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS SHORTWAVE IS A LITTLE MORE POTENT AND LIFT
FROM THIS FEATURE/NEARING OF AN UPPER LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AND
BUILDING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER FAR NW AREAS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD THE LONG RANGE MODELS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA...AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN
THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
WEAK AND FARTHER WEST ENOUGH TO NOT BE ABLE TO DISLODGE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. THOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL RETREAT SOME...ITS GENERAL PRESENCE WILL SPELL AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COOL TIME FOR THE NORTHEAST.

MONDAY WILL BE THE LAST OF NEAR-TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY
TEMPERATURE WISE AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS JUST
TO OUR WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THIS AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION DRIVING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY
CLEARS THE REGION. THE GFS IS DEPICTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPE VALUES EDGING OVER 1000 J/KG OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES REGION. A 40 KNOT LLJ PRODUCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAY BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS INTO STRONG
STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE COOL WITH CHANCES FOR A RAIN SHOWER
EACH DAY. MULTIPLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...COMBINED WITH DAY TIME INSTABILITY MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE BUFFALO CWA. WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE +21 TO
+23C RANGE...AND 850 HPA DROPPING DOWN TO +6 TO +10C...THERE MAY
EVEN BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THESE SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF BOTH
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW-MID 70S...ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RUN IN THE 50S. SOME WARMING IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW RETREATS NORTHWARD SOME AND A WARM FRONT NEARS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ON
RADAR AT 11PM SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS
A WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS
MAY CONTAIN BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS...BUT VFR WILL
PREVAIL THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL END OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING FOR SATURDAY MORNING. EXTENSIVE DIURNAL CUMULUS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY WITH MOST AREAS GOING BKN BY MIDDAY. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS
WILL KEEP SKIES MORE CLEAR EAST OF BOTH LAKES. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY
ALONG AND INLAND FROM THE LAKE BREEZES...BUT AGAIN COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN SPARSE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AND DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
TO THE EASTERN ENDS OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

THIS SAME BASIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF SOME SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATER SUNDAY.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010302
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1102 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN
FREE. A STRONGER FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL
USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. RADAR MOSAIC AT 11PM
SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WORKING
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE BACK EDGE IS SHOWING
UP NEAR MISSISSAUGA ONTARIO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH PASSES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST EXPECT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO ALSO TAPER OFF.

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ALOFT ON SATURDAY...AND THE SUBSEQUENT
STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONGESTED CUMULUS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES WILL TREND
TOWARDS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS WILL KEEP AREAS EAST OF BOTH LAKES
SUNNIER AND DRIER THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE
APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY FORCE A SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH
THE STABLE LAKE SHADOWS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +11C. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY
AGAIN EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHIFTING THE AXIS OF LOWER HEIGHTS EASTWARD. A
FEW REMAINING SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT WITH WANING DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND
THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT EXPECT THE BULK OF THE NIGHT TO BE DRY.

SUNDAY WILL START DRY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...THIS FLOW BETWEEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD...ALONG WITH A DEGREE OR TWO RISE IN DEWPOINTS. DAYTIME
INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT LACKING A GOOD FORCING MECHANISM DONT EXPECT
TOO MANY STORMS. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AS AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON A SOUTHWEST WIND MAY GUST 25 TO 30 MPH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE LARGE HUDSON
BAY UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS SHORTWAVE IS A LITTLE MORE POTENT AND LIFT
FROM THIS FEATURE/NEARING OF AN UPPER LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AND
BUILDING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER FAR NW AREAS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD THE LONG RANGE MODELS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA...AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN
THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
WEAK AND FARTHER WEST ENOUGH TO NOT BE ABLE TO DISLODGE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. THOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL RETREAT SOME...ITS GENERAL PRESENCE WILL SPELL AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COOL TIME FOR THE NORTHEAST.

MONDAY WILL BE THE LAST OF NEAR-TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY
TEMPERATURE WISE AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS JUST
TO OUR WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THIS AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION DRIVING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY
CLEARS THE REGION. THE GFS IS DEPICTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPE VALUES EDGING OVER 1000 J/KG OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES REGION. A 40 KNOT LLJ PRODUCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAY BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS INTO STRONG
STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE COOL WITH CHANCES FOR A RAIN SHOWER
EACH DAY. MULTIPLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...COMBINED WITH DAY TIME INSTABILITY MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE BUFFALO CWA. WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE +21 TO
+23C RANGE...AND 850 HPA DROPPING DOWN TO +6 TO +10C...THERE MAY
EVEN BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THESE SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF BOTH
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW-MID 70S...ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RUN IN THE 50S. SOME WARMING IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW RETREATS NORTHWARD SOME AND A WARM FRONT NEARS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ON
RADAR AT 11PM SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS
A WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS
MAY CONTAIN BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS...BUT VFR WILL
PREVAIL THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL END OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING FOR SATURDAY MORNING. EXTENSIVE DIURNAL CUMULUS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY WITH MOST AREAS GOING BKN BY MIDDAY. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS
WILL KEEP SKIES MORE CLEAR EAST OF BOTH LAKES. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY
ALONG AND INLAND FROM THE LAKE BREEZES...BUT AGAIN COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN SPARSE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AND DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
TO THE EASTERN ENDS OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

THIS SAME BASIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF SOME SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATER SUNDAY.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010302
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1102 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN
FREE. A STRONGER FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL
USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. RADAR MOSAIC AT 11PM
SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WORKING
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE BACK EDGE IS SHOWING
UP NEAR MISSISSAUGA ONTARIO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH PASSES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST EXPECT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO ALSO TAPER OFF.

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ALOFT ON SATURDAY...AND THE SUBSEQUENT
STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONGESTED CUMULUS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES WILL TREND
TOWARDS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS WILL KEEP AREAS EAST OF BOTH LAKES
SUNNIER AND DRIER THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE
APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY FORCE A SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH
THE STABLE LAKE SHADOWS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +11C. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY
AGAIN EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHIFTING THE AXIS OF LOWER HEIGHTS EASTWARD. A
FEW REMAINING SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT WITH WANING DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND
THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT EXPECT THE BULK OF THE NIGHT TO BE DRY.

SUNDAY WILL START DRY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...THIS FLOW BETWEEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD...ALONG WITH A DEGREE OR TWO RISE IN DEWPOINTS. DAYTIME
INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT LACKING A GOOD FORCING MECHANISM DONT EXPECT
TOO MANY STORMS. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AS AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON A SOUTHWEST WIND MAY GUST 25 TO 30 MPH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE LARGE HUDSON
BAY UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS SHORTWAVE IS A LITTLE MORE POTENT AND LIFT
FROM THIS FEATURE/NEARING OF AN UPPER LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AND
BUILDING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER FAR NW AREAS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD THE LONG RANGE MODELS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA...AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN
THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
WEAK AND FARTHER WEST ENOUGH TO NOT BE ABLE TO DISLODGE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. THOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL RETREAT SOME...ITS GENERAL PRESENCE WILL SPELL AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COOL TIME FOR THE NORTHEAST.

MONDAY WILL BE THE LAST OF NEAR-TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY
TEMPERATURE WISE AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS JUST
TO OUR WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THIS AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION DRIVING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY
CLEARS THE REGION. THE GFS IS DEPICTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPE VALUES EDGING OVER 1000 J/KG OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES REGION. A 40 KNOT LLJ PRODUCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAY BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS INTO STRONG
STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE COOL WITH CHANCES FOR A RAIN SHOWER
EACH DAY. MULTIPLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...COMBINED WITH DAY TIME INSTABILITY MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE BUFFALO CWA. WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE +21 TO
+23C RANGE...AND 850 HPA DROPPING DOWN TO +6 TO +10C...THERE MAY
EVEN BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THESE SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF BOTH
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW-MID 70S...ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RUN IN THE 50S. SOME WARMING IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW RETREATS NORTHWARD SOME AND A WARM FRONT NEARS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ON
RADAR AT 11PM SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS
A WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS
MAY CONTAIN BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS...BUT VFR WILL
PREVAIL THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL END OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING FOR SATURDAY MORNING. EXTENSIVE DIURNAL CUMULUS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY WITH MOST AREAS GOING BKN BY MIDDAY. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS
WILL KEEP SKIES MORE CLEAR EAST OF BOTH LAKES. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY
ALONG AND INLAND FROM THE LAKE BREEZES...BUT AGAIN COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN SPARSE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AND DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
TO THE EASTERN ENDS OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

THIS SAME BASIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF SOME SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATER SUNDAY.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010237
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1037 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. DEW POINTS HAVE
BEGUN TO RISE BACK INTO THE 60S WHERE MIXING HAS ENDED.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS IN THE CITY AND PARTS OF NE NJ REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S. IT WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER FEW HOURS UNTIL DEW POINTS
BEGIN TO RISE THERE.

OTHERWISE...DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED
AND A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NYC METRO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NYC AREA TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. WIND WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND MORE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY...AND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE AT KJFK.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010237
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1037 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. DEW POINTS HAVE
BEGUN TO RISE BACK INTO THE 60S WHERE MIXING HAS ENDED.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS IN THE CITY AND PARTS OF NE NJ REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S. IT WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER FEW HOURS UNTIL DEW POINTS
BEGIN TO RISE THERE.

OTHERWISE...DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED
AND A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NYC METRO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NYC AREA TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. WIND WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND MORE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY...AND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE AT KJFK.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010237
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1037 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. DEW POINTS HAVE
BEGUN TO RISE BACK INTO THE 60S WHERE MIXING HAS ENDED.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS IN THE CITY AND PARTS OF NE NJ REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S. IT WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER FEW HOURS UNTIL DEW POINTS
BEGIN TO RISE THERE.

OTHERWISE...DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED
AND A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NYC METRO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NYC AREA TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. WIND WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND MORE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY...AND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE AT KJFK.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW




000
FXUS61 KALY 010231
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THIS FIRST
WEEKEND OF AUGUST AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE ALONG WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CONTINUED
TO THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO...JUST MISSING NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

ANOTHER WEAKER SHOWER WAS WORKING INTO GREENE COUNTY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT IT LOOKS AS IF THE BEST FORCING WILL STAY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREA WHERE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. BY DAYBREAK...THIS FORCING
(WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AREA UNDER THE RR REGION OF A
80KT UPPER LEVEL JET)...WILL SHIFT DOWN TOWARD THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND HAS DECOUPLED IN MOST PLACES. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED
QUITE BIT...MAINLY INTO THE 60S.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR A VARIABLY CLOUDY SKY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...
PARTLY CLOUDY FURTHER SOUTH. SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY WELL
NORTH I-90 AND AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND OF AUGUST WILL FEATURE GRADUAL
FALLING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO ASSIST WITH
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS. H500 NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...FOR INITIALLY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TERRAIN THEN MIGRATING INTO THE
VALLEYS. PER THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSION...INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH THE NAM REMAINING MORE ROBUST THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. PER SPC...SWODY2 PLACES A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. WITHIN THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SUNSET. VARIABLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION AND WHERE
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE RESULT.
SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN.

SUNDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE IN ADVANCE
OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. AT THIS
TIME...THE NAM DOES SEEM OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKS AND
INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREENS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE DACKS. AS THE H850 TEMPS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE POSITIVE TEENS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR
TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80-85F DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A LARGE CLOSED OFF LOW AT 500
HPA WILL BE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA ON MONDAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE BOUNDARY AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END ON MONDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEASTERN US FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
LOWERING HEIGHTS OVERHEAD...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS AND IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AS WELL. TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME DIURNALLY
FORCED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
BY FRIDAY...AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL INTO ATLANTIC CANADA.  WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS IN CASE THE TROUGH HANGS IN
LONGER...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGFL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT IMPACT KGFL THROUGH
02Z SO VCSH THERE UNTIL 02Z. AT KGFL...WE THINK SOME MIST WILL
FORM AROUND 08Z...MOSTLY LIKELY DOWN TO JUST MVFR...BUT THIS
ASSUMES A DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND NO WIND.

WENT WITH MIFG FROM 08Z-11Z AT KPSF AND KPOU TO REFLECT THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT MVFR FOG MIGHT FORM.

AT KALB...WITH A LITTLE MORE OF A SOUTH WIND EXPECTED...KEPT FOG
OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z SAT...WHICH SHOULD LEAVE A MAINLY
VFR DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES...INCREASE
CLOUDS WITH BASES OVER 3000 FEET AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SHOWERS. PLACED VCSH IN ALL BUT KPOU TAF. WE START THIS ABOUT 16Z
ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT BY 18Z...TO THE WEST AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 18KTS AT KALB.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN A
VCSH AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASING TO MAXIMUM
VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. MIN RH VALUES SATURDAY WILL
DROP TO AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS INTO THIS EARLY EVENING WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND
5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV



000
FXUS61 KALY 010231
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THIS FIRST
WEEKEND OF AUGUST AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE ALONG WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CONTINUED
TO THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO...JUST MISSING NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

ANOTHER WEAKER SHOWER WAS WORKING INTO GREENE COUNTY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT IT LOOKS AS IF THE BEST FORCING WILL STAY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREA WHERE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. BY DAYBREAK...THIS FORCING
(WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AREA UNDER THE RR REGION OF A
80KT UPPER LEVEL JET)...WILL SHIFT DOWN TOWARD THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND HAS DECOUPLED IN MOST PLACES. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED
QUITE BIT...MAINLY INTO THE 60S.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR A VARIABLY CLOUDY SKY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...
PARTLY CLOUDY FURTHER SOUTH. SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY WELL
NORTH I-90 AND AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND OF AUGUST WILL FEATURE GRADUAL
FALLING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO ASSIST WITH
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS. H500 NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...FOR INITIALLY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TERRAIN THEN MIGRATING INTO THE
VALLEYS. PER THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSION...INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH THE NAM REMAINING MORE ROBUST THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. PER SPC...SWODY2 PLACES A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. WITHIN THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SUNSET. VARIABLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION AND WHERE
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE RESULT.
SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN.

SUNDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE IN ADVANCE
OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. AT THIS
TIME...THE NAM DOES SEEM OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKS AND
INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREENS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE DACKS. AS THE H850 TEMPS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE POSITIVE TEENS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR
TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80-85F DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A LARGE CLOSED OFF LOW AT 500
HPA WILL BE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA ON MONDAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE BOUNDARY AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END ON MONDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEASTERN US FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
LOWERING HEIGHTS OVERHEAD...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS AND IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AS WELL. TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME DIURNALLY
FORCED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
BY FRIDAY...AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL INTO ATLANTIC CANADA.  WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS IN CASE THE TROUGH HANGS IN
LONGER...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGFL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT IMPACT KGFL THROUGH
02Z SO VCSH THERE UNTIL 02Z. AT KGFL...WE THINK SOME MIST WILL
FORM AROUND 08Z...MOSTLY LIKELY DOWN TO JUST MVFR...BUT THIS
ASSUMES A DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND NO WIND.

WENT WITH MIFG FROM 08Z-11Z AT KPSF AND KPOU TO REFLECT THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT MVFR FOG MIGHT FORM.

AT KALB...WITH A LITTLE MORE OF A SOUTH WIND EXPECTED...KEPT FOG
OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z SAT...WHICH SHOULD LEAVE A MAINLY
VFR DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES...INCREASE
CLOUDS WITH BASES OVER 3000 FEET AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SHOWERS. PLACED VCSH IN ALL BUT KPOU TAF. WE START THIS ABOUT 16Z
ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT BY 18Z...TO THE WEST AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 18KTS AT KALB.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN A
VCSH AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASING TO MAXIMUM
VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. MIN RH VALUES SATURDAY WILL
DROP TO AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS INTO THIS EARLY EVENING WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND
5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010216
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1016 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 956 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASING CYCLONIC 700-500MB FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES REGION IS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
STRETCHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY TO NEAR
WATERTOWN NY. THESE LEADING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EWD 20-30 MPH
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL ULTIMATELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30
POPS ACROSS NRN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AREAWIDE WITH RAINFALL AMTS GENERALLY
EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...BUT STILL SEEING CGS AT 02Z WITH CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER NIGHT AND SCT-BKN SKIES ABOVE 050 AFTER 08Z.
WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, AROUND
10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 15-20
KNOTS. AFTER 05Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION,
MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK WITH FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE REST
OF THE TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK/KMPV AROUND 06Z-10Z.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT040-060 AND VICINITY SHOWERS AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...MV/SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010216
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1016 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 956 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASING CYCLONIC 700-500MB FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES REGION IS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
STRETCHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY TO NEAR
WATERTOWN NY. THESE LEADING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EWD 20-30 MPH
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL ULTIMATELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30
POPS ACROSS NRN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AREAWIDE WITH RAINFALL AMTS GENERALLY
EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...BUT STILL SEEING CGS AT 02Z WITH CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER NIGHT AND SCT-BKN SKIES ABOVE 050 AFTER 08Z.
WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, AROUND
10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 15-20
KNOTS. AFTER 05Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION,
MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK WITH FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE REST
OF THE TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK/KMPV AROUND 06Z-10Z.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT040-060 AND VICINITY SHOWERS AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...MV/SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010136
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
936 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. DEW POINTS HAVE
BEGUN TO RISE BACK INTO THE 60S WHERE MIXING HAS ENDED.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS IN THE CITY AND PARTS OF NE NJ REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S. IT WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER FEW HOURS UNTIL DEW POINTS
BEGIN TO RISE THERE.

OTHERWISE...DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED
AND A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NYC METRO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NYC AREA TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. WIND WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND MORE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY. SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE AT KJFK.


   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010136
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
936 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. DEW POINTS HAVE
BEGUN TO RISE BACK INTO THE 60S WHERE MIXING HAS ENDED.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS IN THE CITY AND PARTS OF NE NJ REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S. IT WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER FEW HOURS UNTIL DEW POINTS
BEGIN TO RISE THERE.

OTHERWISE...DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED
AND A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NYC METRO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NYC AREA TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. WIND WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND MORE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY. SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE AT KJFK.


   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010102
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
902 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT FRIDAY...DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PER EARLY EVENING
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE.
COMBINED WITH LOW DEWPOINTS/DRY VERTICAL COLUMN...WILL HAVE GOOD
VIEWING CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR THE RISE OF THE
BLUE MOON BETWEEN 810-820PM. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY NEXT 1-2 HRS.
LEADING SHOWERS JUST WEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN NY LATE EVENING...AND ULTIMATELY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30 POPS ACROSS NRN VT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH RAINFALL
AMTS EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS OVERNIGHT
GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER NIGHT AND SCT-BKN SKIES ABOVE 050 AFTER 08Z.
WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, AROUND
10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 15-20
KNOTS. AFTER 05Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION,
MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK WITH FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE REST
OF THE TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK/KMPV AROUND 06Z-10Z.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT040-060 AND VICINITY SHOWERS AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...MV/SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010102
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
902 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT FRIDAY...DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PER EARLY EVENING
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE.
COMBINED WITH LOW DEWPOINTS/DRY VERTICAL COLUMN...WILL HAVE GOOD
VIEWING CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR THE RISE OF THE
BLUE MOON BETWEEN 810-820PM. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY NEXT 1-2 HRS.
LEADING SHOWERS JUST WEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN NY LATE EVENING...AND ULTIMATELY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30 POPS ACROSS NRN VT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH RAINFALL
AMTS EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS OVERNIGHT
GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER NIGHT AND SCT-BKN SKIES ABOVE 050 AFTER 08Z.
WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, AROUND
10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 15-20
KNOTS. AFTER 05Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION,
MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK WITH FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE REST
OF THE TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK/KMPV AROUND 06Z-10Z.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT040-060 AND VICINITY SHOWERS AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...MV/SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010102
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
902 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT FRIDAY...DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PER EARLY EVENING
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE.
COMBINED WITH LOW DEWPOINTS/DRY VERTICAL COLUMN...WILL HAVE GOOD
VIEWING CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR THE RISE OF THE
BLUE MOON BETWEEN 810-820PM. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY NEXT 1-2 HRS.
LEADING SHOWERS JUST WEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN NY LATE EVENING...AND ULTIMATELY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30 POPS ACROSS NRN VT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH RAINFALL
AMTS EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS OVERNIGHT
GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER NIGHT AND SCT-BKN SKIES ABOVE 050 AFTER 08Z.
WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, AROUND
10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 15-20
KNOTS. AFTER 05Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION,
MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK WITH FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE REST
OF THE TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK/KMPV AROUND 06Z-10Z.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT040-060 AND VICINITY SHOWERS AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...MV/SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG



000
FXUS61 KBUF 010011
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
811 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN
FREE. A STRONGER FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL
USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE STRONGER LARGE
SCALE SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF DPVA AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS QUEBEC...WITH THE TRAILING LOW LEVEL TROUGH
FEATURING RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOLING. THIS
MATCHES WELL WITH THE RADAR MOSAIC AT 8PM SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WORKING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. THESE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TAPERING OFF
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. GIVEN THE
WEAK FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECT ANY STORMS TO REMAIN
WEAK...ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

ANY SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BEFORE DAYBREAK
WITH MOST AREAS SEEING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ALOFT ON SATURDAY...AND THE SUBSEQUENT STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF CONGESTED CUMULUS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES WILL TREND TOWARDS MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK
ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS
WILL KEEP AREAS EAST OF BOTH LAKES SUNNIER AND DRIER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
MAY FORCE A SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH THE STABLE LAKE SHADOWS BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +11C. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY
AGAIN EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHIFTING THE AXIS OF LOWER HEIGHTS EASTWARD. A
FEW REMAINING SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT WITH WANING DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND
THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT EXPECT THE BULK OF THE NIGHT TO BE DRY.

SUNDAY WILL START DRY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...THIS FLOW BETWEEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD...ALONG WITH A DEGREE OR TWO RISE IN DEWPOINTS. DAYTIME
INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT LACKING A GOOD FORCING MECHANISM DONT EXPECT
TOO MANY STORMS. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AS AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON A SOUTHWEST WIND MAY GUST 25 TO 30 MPH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE LARGE HUDSON
BAY UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS SHORTWAVE IS A LITTLE MORE POTENT AND LIFT
FROM THIS FEATURE/NEARING OF AN UPPER LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AND
BUILDING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER FAR NW AREAS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD THE LONG RANGE MODELS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA...AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN
THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
WEAK AND FARTHER WEST ENOUGH TO NOT BE ABLE TO DISLODGE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. THOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL RETREAT SOME...ITS GENERAL PRESENCE WILL SPELL AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COOL TIME FOR THE NORTHEAST.

MONDAY WILL BE THE LAST OF NEAR-TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY
TEMPERATURE WISE AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS JUST
TO OUR WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THIS AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION DRIVING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY
CLEARS THE REGION. THE GFS IS DEPICTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPE VALUES EDGING OVER 1000 J/KG OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES REGION. A 40 KNOT LLJ PRODUCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAY BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS INTO STRONG
STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE COOL WITH CHANCES FOR A RAIN SHOWER
EACH DAY. MULTIPLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...COMBINED WITH DAY TIME INSTABILITY MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE BUFFALO CWA. WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE +21 TO
+23C RANGE...AND 850 HPA DROPPING DOWN TO +6 TO +10C...THERE MAY
EVEN BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THESE SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF BOTH
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW-MID 70S...ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RUN IN THE 50S. SOME WARMING IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW RETREATS NORTHWARD SOME AND A WARM FRONT NEARS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OBSERVED ON RADAR AT 8PM WILL SHIFT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH
CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO REMAIN ON THE SPARSE SIDE...SO FOR NOW HAVE JUST GONE WITH VCSH
QUALIFIERS AT THE TAF SITES. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP MAY
CONTAIN BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS...BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL END LATE TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING FOR SATURDAY MORNING. EXTENSIVE DIURNAL CUMULUS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY WITH MOST AREAS GOING BKN BY MIDDAY. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS
WILL KEEP SKIES MORE CLEAR EAST OF BOTH LAKES. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY
ALONG AND INLAND FROM THE LAKE BREEZES...BUT AGAIN COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN SPARSE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ON LAKE
ERIE BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AND DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY TO THE EASTERN ENDS OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO.

THIS SAME BASIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF SOME SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATER SUNDAY.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SMITH



000
FXUS61 KBUF 010011
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
811 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN
FREE. A STRONGER FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL
USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE STRONGER LARGE
SCALE SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF DPVA AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS QUEBEC...WITH THE TRAILING LOW LEVEL TROUGH
FEATURING RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOLING. THIS
MATCHES WELL WITH THE RADAR MOSAIC AT 8PM SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WORKING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. THESE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TAPERING OFF
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. GIVEN THE
WEAK FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECT ANY STORMS TO REMAIN
WEAK...ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

ANY SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BEFORE DAYBREAK
WITH MOST AREAS SEEING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ALOFT ON SATURDAY...AND THE SUBSEQUENT STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF CONGESTED CUMULUS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES WILL TREND TOWARDS MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK
ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS
WILL KEEP AREAS EAST OF BOTH LAKES SUNNIER AND DRIER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
MAY FORCE A SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH THE STABLE LAKE SHADOWS BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +11C. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY
AGAIN EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHIFTING THE AXIS OF LOWER HEIGHTS EASTWARD. A
FEW REMAINING SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT WITH WANING DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND
THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT EXPECT THE BULK OF THE NIGHT TO BE DRY.

SUNDAY WILL START DRY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...THIS FLOW BETWEEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD...ALONG WITH A DEGREE OR TWO RISE IN DEWPOINTS. DAYTIME
INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT LACKING A GOOD FORCING MECHANISM DONT EXPECT
TOO MANY STORMS. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AS AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON A SOUTHWEST WIND MAY GUST 25 TO 30 MPH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE LARGE HUDSON
BAY UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS SHORTWAVE IS A LITTLE MORE POTENT AND LIFT
FROM THIS FEATURE/NEARING OF AN UPPER LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AND
BUILDING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER FAR NW AREAS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD THE LONG RANGE MODELS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA...AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN
THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
WEAK AND FARTHER WEST ENOUGH TO NOT BE ABLE TO DISLODGE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. THOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL RETREAT SOME...ITS GENERAL PRESENCE WILL SPELL AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COOL TIME FOR THE NORTHEAST.

MONDAY WILL BE THE LAST OF NEAR-TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY
TEMPERATURE WISE AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS JUST
TO OUR WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THIS AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION DRIVING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY
CLEARS THE REGION. THE GFS IS DEPICTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPE VALUES EDGING OVER 1000 J/KG OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES REGION. A 40 KNOT LLJ PRODUCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAY BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS INTO STRONG
STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE COOL WITH CHANCES FOR A RAIN SHOWER
EACH DAY. MULTIPLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...COMBINED WITH DAY TIME INSTABILITY MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE BUFFALO CWA. WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE +21 TO
+23C RANGE...AND 850 HPA DROPPING DOWN TO +6 TO +10C...THERE MAY
EVEN BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THESE SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF BOTH
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW-MID 70S...ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RUN IN THE 50S. SOME WARMING IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW RETREATS NORTHWARD SOME AND A WARM FRONT NEARS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OBSERVED ON RADAR AT 8PM WILL SHIFT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH
CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO REMAIN ON THE SPARSE SIDE...SO FOR NOW HAVE JUST GONE WITH VCSH
QUALIFIERS AT THE TAF SITES. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP MAY
CONTAIN BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS...BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL END LATE TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING FOR SATURDAY MORNING. EXTENSIVE DIURNAL CUMULUS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY WITH MOST AREAS GOING BKN BY MIDDAY. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS
WILL KEEP SKIES MORE CLEAR EAST OF BOTH LAKES. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY
ALONG AND INLAND FROM THE LAKE BREEZES...BUT AGAIN COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN SPARSE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ON LAKE
ERIE BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AND DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY TO THE EASTERN ENDS OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO.

THIS SAME BASIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF SOME SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATER SUNDAY.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010011
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
811 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN
FREE. A STRONGER FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL
USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE STRONGER LARGE
SCALE SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF DPVA AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS QUEBEC...WITH THE TRAILING LOW LEVEL TROUGH
FEATURING RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOLING. THIS
MATCHES WELL WITH THE RADAR MOSAIC AT 8PM SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WORKING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. THESE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TAPERING OFF
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. GIVEN THE
WEAK FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECT ANY STORMS TO REMAIN
WEAK...ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

ANY SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BEFORE DAYBREAK
WITH MOST AREAS SEEING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ALOFT ON SATURDAY...AND THE SUBSEQUENT STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF CONGESTED CUMULUS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES WILL TREND TOWARDS MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK
ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS
WILL KEEP AREAS EAST OF BOTH LAKES SUNNIER AND DRIER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
MAY FORCE A SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH THE STABLE LAKE SHADOWS BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +11C. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY
AGAIN EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHIFTING THE AXIS OF LOWER HEIGHTS EASTWARD. A
FEW REMAINING SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT WITH WANING DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND
THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT EXPECT THE BULK OF THE NIGHT TO BE DRY.

SUNDAY WILL START DRY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...THIS FLOW BETWEEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD...ALONG WITH A DEGREE OR TWO RISE IN DEWPOINTS. DAYTIME
INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT LACKING A GOOD FORCING MECHANISM DONT EXPECT
TOO MANY STORMS. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AS AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON A SOUTHWEST WIND MAY GUST 25 TO 30 MPH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE LARGE HUDSON
BAY UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS SHORTWAVE IS A LITTLE MORE POTENT AND LIFT
FROM THIS FEATURE/NEARING OF AN UPPER LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AND
BUILDING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER FAR NW AREAS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD THE LONG RANGE MODELS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA...AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN
THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
WEAK AND FARTHER WEST ENOUGH TO NOT BE ABLE TO DISLODGE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. THOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL RETREAT SOME...ITS GENERAL PRESENCE WILL SPELL AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COOL TIME FOR THE NORTHEAST.

MONDAY WILL BE THE LAST OF NEAR-TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY
TEMPERATURE WISE AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS JUST
TO OUR WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THIS AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION DRIVING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY
CLEARS THE REGION. THE GFS IS DEPICTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPE VALUES EDGING OVER 1000 J/KG OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES REGION. A 40 KNOT LLJ PRODUCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAY BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS INTO STRONG
STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE COOL WITH CHANCES FOR A RAIN SHOWER
EACH DAY. MULTIPLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...COMBINED WITH DAY TIME INSTABILITY MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE BUFFALO CWA. WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE +21 TO
+23C RANGE...AND 850 HPA DROPPING DOWN TO +6 TO +10C...THERE MAY
EVEN BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THESE SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF BOTH
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW-MID 70S...ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RUN IN THE 50S. SOME WARMING IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW RETREATS NORTHWARD SOME AND A WARM FRONT NEARS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OBSERVED ON RADAR AT 8PM WILL SHIFT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH
CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO REMAIN ON THE SPARSE SIDE...SO FOR NOW HAVE JUST GONE WITH VCSH
QUALIFIERS AT THE TAF SITES. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP MAY
CONTAIN BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS...BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL END LATE TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING FOR SATURDAY MORNING. EXTENSIVE DIURNAL CUMULUS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY WITH MOST AREAS GOING BKN BY MIDDAY. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS
WILL KEEP SKIES MORE CLEAR EAST OF BOTH LAKES. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY
ALONG AND INLAND FROM THE LAKE BREEZES...BUT AGAIN COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN SPARSE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ON LAKE
ERIE BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AND DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY TO THE EASTERN ENDS OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO.

THIS SAME BASIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF SOME SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATER SUNDAY.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010011
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
811 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN
FREE. A STRONGER FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL
USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE STRONGER LARGE
SCALE SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF DPVA AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS QUEBEC...WITH THE TRAILING LOW LEVEL TROUGH
FEATURING RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOLING. THIS
MATCHES WELL WITH THE RADAR MOSAIC AT 8PM SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WORKING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. THESE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TAPERING OFF
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. GIVEN THE
WEAK FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECT ANY STORMS TO REMAIN
WEAK...ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

ANY SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BEFORE DAYBREAK
WITH MOST AREAS SEEING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ALOFT ON SATURDAY...AND THE SUBSEQUENT STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF CONGESTED CUMULUS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES WILL TREND TOWARDS MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK
ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS
WILL KEEP AREAS EAST OF BOTH LAKES SUNNIER AND DRIER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
MAY FORCE A SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH THE STABLE LAKE SHADOWS BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND +11C. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY
AGAIN EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHIFTING THE AXIS OF LOWER HEIGHTS EASTWARD. A
FEW REMAINING SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT WITH WANING DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND
THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT EXPECT THE BULK OF THE NIGHT TO BE DRY.

SUNDAY WILL START DRY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...THIS FLOW BETWEEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD...ALONG WITH A DEGREE OR TWO RISE IN DEWPOINTS. DAYTIME
INSTABILITY MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT LACKING A GOOD FORCING MECHANISM DONT EXPECT
TOO MANY STORMS. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AS AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON A SOUTHWEST WIND MAY GUST 25 TO 30 MPH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE LARGE HUDSON
BAY UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS SHORTWAVE IS A LITTLE MORE POTENT AND LIFT
FROM THIS FEATURE/NEARING OF AN UPPER LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AND
BUILDING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER FAR NW AREAS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD THE LONG RANGE MODELS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA...AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN
THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
WEAK AND FARTHER WEST ENOUGH TO NOT BE ABLE TO DISLODGE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. THOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL RETREAT SOME...ITS GENERAL PRESENCE WILL SPELL AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COOL TIME FOR THE NORTHEAST.

MONDAY WILL BE THE LAST OF NEAR-TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY
TEMPERATURE WISE AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS JUST
TO OUR WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THIS AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION DRIVING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY
CLEARS THE REGION. THE GFS IS DEPICTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPE VALUES EDGING OVER 1000 J/KG OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES REGION. A 40 KNOT LLJ PRODUCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAY BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS INTO STRONG
STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE COOL WITH CHANCES FOR A RAIN SHOWER
EACH DAY. MULTIPLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...COMBINED WITH DAY TIME INSTABILITY MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE BUFFALO CWA. WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE +21 TO
+23C RANGE...AND 850 HPA DROPPING DOWN TO +6 TO +10C...THERE MAY
EVEN BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THESE SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF BOTH
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW-MID 70S...ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RUN IN THE 50S. SOME WARMING IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW RETREATS NORTHWARD SOME AND A WARM FRONT NEARS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OBSERVED ON RADAR AT 8PM WILL SHIFT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH
CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO REMAIN ON THE SPARSE SIDE...SO FOR NOW HAVE JUST GONE WITH VCSH
QUALIFIERS AT THE TAF SITES. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP MAY
CONTAIN BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS...BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL END LATE TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING FOR SATURDAY MORNING. EXTENSIVE DIURNAL CUMULUS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY WITH MOST AREAS GOING BKN BY MIDDAY. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS
WILL KEEP SKIES MORE CLEAR EAST OF BOTH LAKES. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY
ALONG AND INLAND FROM THE LAKE BREEZES...BUT AGAIN COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN SPARSE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ON LAKE
ERIE BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AND DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY TO THE EASTERN ENDS OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO.

THIS SAME BASIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF SOME SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATER SUNDAY.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SMITH



000
FXUS61 KALY 010009
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
809 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THIS FIRST
WEEKEND OF AUGUST AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE ALONG WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT...A SHOWER HAD MADE IT INTO HERKIMER
COUNTY...HEADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE WERE OUT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE FRONT
OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.

WE THINK ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MAINLY THIS AREA...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT DRIFT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
WHERE THE AIR IS DRIER AND THERE IS NO SURFACE CONVERGENCE. STILL
SOME CLOUDS MIGHT DRIFT SOUTHWARD.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST TOUCHED UP THE HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE CURRENT AND NEAR TERM TRENDS.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE DESPITE THE FACT THAT CURRENT
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING HIGHER THAN ADVERTISED. ADJUSTED THEM
(THEY WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS...WELL INTO THE
70S HIGHER TERRAIN).

THE GUSTY WIND WAS RELAXING...BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN
SPOTS.

THE SKY FOR TONIGHTS BLUE MOON WILL RANGE FROM VARIABLY CLOUDY
NORTH- MOCLEAR SOUTH OF ALBANY WITH SEASONABLE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND OF AUGUST WILL FEATURE GRADUAL
FALLING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO ASSIST WITH
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS. H500 NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...FOR INITIALLY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TERRAIN THEN MIGRATING INTO THE
VALLEYS. PER THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSION...INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH THE NAM REMAINING MORE ROBUST THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. PER SPC...SWODY2 PLACES A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. WITHIN THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SUNSET. VARIABLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION AND WHERE
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE RESULT.
SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN.

SUNDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE IN ADVANCE
OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. AT THIS
TIME...THE NAM DOES SEEM OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKS AND
INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREENS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE DACKS. AS THE H850 TEMPS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE POSITIVE TEENS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR
TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80-85F DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A LARGE CLOSED OFF LOW AT 500
HPA WILL BE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA ON MONDAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE BOUNDARY AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END ON MONDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEASTERN US FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
LOWERING HEIGHTS OVERHEAD...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS AND IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AS WELL. TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME DIURNALLY
FORCED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
BY FRIDAY...AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL INTO ATLANTIC CANADA.  WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS IN CASE THE TROUGH HANGS IN
LONGER...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGFL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT IMPACT KGFL THROUGH
02Z SO VCSH THERE UNTIL 02Z. AT KGFL...WE THINK SOME MIST WILL
FORM AROUND 08Z...MOSTLY LIKELY DOWN TO JUST MVFR...BUT THIS
ASSUMES A DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND NO WIND.

WENT WITH MIFG FROM 08Z-11Z AT KPSF AND KPOU TO REFLECT THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT MVFR FOG MIGHT FORM.

AT KALB...WITH A LITTLE MORE OF A SOUTH WIND EXPECTED...KEPT FOG
OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z SAT...WHICH SHOULD LEAVE A MAINLY
VFR DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES...INCREASE
CLOUDS WITH BASES OVER 3000 FEET AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SHOWERS. PLACED VCSH IN ALL BUT KPOU TAF. WE START THIS ABOUT 16Z
ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT BY 18Z...TO THE WEST AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 18KTS AT KALB.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN A
VCSH AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASING TO MAXIMUM
VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. MIN RH VALUES SATURDAY WILL
DROP TO AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS INTO THIS EARLY EVENING WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND
5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV



000
FXUS61 KALY 010009
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
809 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THIS FIRST
WEEKEND OF AUGUST AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE ALONG WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT...A SHOWER HAD MADE IT INTO HERKIMER
COUNTY...HEADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE WERE OUT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE FRONT
OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.

WE THINK ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MAINLY THIS AREA...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT DRIFT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
WHERE THE AIR IS DRIER AND THERE IS NO SURFACE CONVERGENCE. STILL
SOME CLOUDS MIGHT DRIFT SOUTHWARD.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST TOUCHED UP THE HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE CURRENT AND NEAR TERM TRENDS.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE DESPITE THE FACT THAT CURRENT
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING HIGHER THAN ADVERTISED. ADJUSTED THEM
(THEY WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS...WELL INTO THE
70S HIGHER TERRAIN).

THE GUSTY WIND WAS RELAXING...BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN
SPOTS.

THE SKY FOR TONIGHTS BLUE MOON WILL RANGE FROM VARIABLY CLOUDY
NORTH- MOCLEAR SOUTH OF ALBANY WITH SEASONABLE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND OF AUGUST WILL FEATURE GRADUAL
FALLING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO ASSIST WITH
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS. H500 NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...FOR INITIALLY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TERRAIN THEN MIGRATING INTO THE
VALLEYS. PER THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSION...INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH THE NAM REMAINING MORE ROBUST THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. PER SPC...SWODY2 PLACES A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. WITHIN THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SUNSET. VARIABLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION AND WHERE
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE RESULT.
SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN.

SUNDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE IN ADVANCE
OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. AT THIS
TIME...THE NAM DOES SEEM OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKS AND
INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREENS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE DACKS. AS THE H850 TEMPS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE POSITIVE TEENS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR
TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80-85F DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A LARGE CLOSED OFF LOW AT 500
HPA WILL BE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA ON MONDAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE BOUNDARY AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END ON MONDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEASTERN US FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
LOWERING HEIGHTS OVERHEAD...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS AND IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AS WELL. TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME DIURNALLY
FORCED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
BY FRIDAY...AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL INTO ATLANTIC CANADA.  WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS IN CASE THE TROUGH HANGS IN
LONGER...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGFL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT IMPACT KGFL THROUGH
02Z SO VCSH THERE UNTIL 02Z. AT KGFL...WE THINK SOME MIST WILL
FORM AROUND 08Z...MOSTLY LIKELY DOWN TO JUST MVFR...BUT THIS
ASSUMES A DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND NO WIND.

WENT WITH MIFG FROM 08Z-11Z AT KPSF AND KPOU TO REFLECT THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT MVFR FOG MIGHT FORM.

AT KALB...WITH A LITTLE MORE OF A SOUTH WIND EXPECTED...KEPT FOG
OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z SAT...WHICH SHOULD LEAVE A MAINLY
VFR DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES...INCREASE
CLOUDS WITH BASES OVER 3000 FEET AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SHOWERS. PLACED VCSH IN ALL BUT KPOU TAF. WE START THIS ABOUT 16Z
ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT BY 18Z...TO THE WEST AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 18KTS AT KALB.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN A
VCSH AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASING TO MAXIMUM
VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. MIN RH VALUES SATURDAY WILL
DROP TO AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS INTO THIS EARLY EVENING WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND
5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 010009
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
809 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THIS FIRST
WEEKEND OF AUGUST AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE ALONG WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT...A SHOWER HAD MADE IT INTO HERKIMER
COUNTY...HEADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE WERE OUT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE FRONT
OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.

WE THINK ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MAINLY THIS AREA...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT DRIFT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
WHERE THE AIR IS DRIER AND THERE IS NO SURFACE CONVERGENCE. STILL
SOME CLOUDS MIGHT DRIFT SOUTHWARD.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST TOUCHED UP THE HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE CURRENT AND NEAR TERM TRENDS.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE DESPITE THE FACT THAT CURRENT
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING HIGHER THAN ADVERTISED. ADJUSTED THEM
(THEY WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS...WELL INTO THE
70S HIGHER TERRAIN).

THE GUSTY WIND WAS RELAXING...BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN
SPOTS.

THE SKY FOR TONIGHTS BLUE MOON WILL RANGE FROM VARIABLY CLOUDY
NORTH- MOCLEAR SOUTH OF ALBANY WITH SEASONABLE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND OF AUGUST WILL FEATURE GRADUAL
FALLING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO ASSIST WITH
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS. H500 NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...FOR INITIALLY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TERRAIN THEN MIGRATING INTO THE
VALLEYS. PER THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSION...INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH THE NAM REMAINING MORE ROBUST THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. PER SPC...SWODY2 PLACES A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. WITHIN THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SUNSET. VARIABLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION AND WHERE
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE RESULT.
SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN.

SUNDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE IN ADVANCE
OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. AT THIS
TIME...THE NAM DOES SEEM OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKS AND
INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREENS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE DACKS. AS THE H850 TEMPS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE POSITIVE TEENS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR
TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80-85F DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A LARGE CLOSED OFF LOW AT 500
HPA WILL BE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA ON MONDAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE BOUNDARY AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END ON MONDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEASTERN US FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
LOWERING HEIGHTS OVERHEAD...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS AND IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AS WELL. TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME DIURNALLY
FORCED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
BY FRIDAY...AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL INTO ATLANTIC CANADA.  WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS IN CASE THE TROUGH HANGS IN
LONGER...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGFL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT IMPACT KGFL THROUGH
02Z SO VCSH THERE UNTIL 02Z. AT KGFL...WE THINK SOME MIST WILL
FORM AROUND 08Z...MOSTLY LIKELY DOWN TO JUST MVFR...BUT THIS
ASSUMES A DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND NO WIND.

WENT WITH MIFG FROM 08Z-11Z AT KPSF AND KPOU TO REFLECT THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT MVFR FOG MIGHT FORM.

AT KALB...WITH A LITTLE MORE OF A SOUTH WIND EXPECTED...KEPT FOG
OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z SAT...WHICH SHOULD LEAVE A MAINLY
VFR DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES...INCREASE
CLOUDS WITH BASES OVER 3000 FEET AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SHOWERS. PLACED VCSH IN ALL BUT KPOU TAF. WE START THIS ABOUT 16Z
ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT BY 18Z...TO THE WEST AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 18KTS AT KALB.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN A
VCSH AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASING TO MAXIMUM
VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. MIN RH VALUES SATURDAY WILL
DROP TO AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS INTO THIS EARLY EVENING WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND
5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV



000
FXUS61 KALY 010009
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
809 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THIS FIRST
WEEKEND OF AUGUST AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE ALONG WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT...A SHOWER HAD MADE IT INTO HERKIMER
COUNTY...HEADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE WERE OUT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE FRONT
OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.

WE THINK ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MAINLY THIS AREA...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT DRIFT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
WHERE THE AIR IS DRIER AND THERE IS NO SURFACE CONVERGENCE. STILL
SOME CLOUDS MIGHT DRIFT SOUTHWARD.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST TOUCHED UP THE HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE CURRENT AND NEAR TERM TRENDS.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE DESPITE THE FACT THAT CURRENT
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING HIGHER THAN ADVERTISED. ADJUSTED THEM
(THEY WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS...WELL INTO THE
70S HIGHER TERRAIN).

THE GUSTY WIND WAS RELAXING...BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN
SPOTS.

THE SKY FOR TONIGHTS BLUE MOON WILL RANGE FROM VARIABLY CLOUDY
NORTH- MOCLEAR SOUTH OF ALBANY WITH SEASONABLE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND OF AUGUST WILL FEATURE GRADUAL
FALLING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO ASSIST WITH
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS. H500 NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...FOR INITIALLY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TERRAIN THEN MIGRATING INTO THE
VALLEYS. PER THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSION...INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH THE NAM REMAINING MORE ROBUST THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. PER SPC...SWODY2 PLACES A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. WITHIN THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SUNSET. VARIABLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION AND WHERE
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE RESULT.
SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN.

SUNDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE IN ADVANCE
OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. AT THIS
TIME...THE NAM DOES SEEM OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKS AND
INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREENS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE DACKS. AS THE H850 TEMPS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE POSITIVE TEENS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR
TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80-85F DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A LARGE CLOSED OFF LOW AT 500
HPA WILL BE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA ON MONDAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE BOUNDARY AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END ON MONDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEASTERN US FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
LOWERING HEIGHTS OVERHEAD...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS AND IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AS WELL. TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME DIURNALLY
FORCED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
BY FRIDAY...AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL INTO ATLANTIC CANADA.  WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS IN CASE THE TROUGH HANGS IN
LONGER...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGFL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT IMPACT KGFL THROUGH
02Z SO VCSH THERE UNTIL 02Z. AT KGFL...WE THINK SOME MIST WILL
FORM AROUND 08Z...MOSTLY LIKELY DOWN TO JUST MVFR...BUT THIS
ASSUMES A DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND NO WIND.

WENT WITH MIFG FROM 08Z-11Z AT KPSF AND KPOU TO REFLECT THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT MVFR FOG MIGHT FORM.

AT KALB...WITH A LITTLE MORE OF A SOUTH WIND EXPECTED...KEPT FOG
OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z SAT...WHICH SHOULD LEAVE A MAINLY
VFR DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES...INCREASE
CLOUDS WITH BASES OVER 3000 FEET AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SHOWERS. PLACED VCSH IN ALL BUT KPOU TAF. WE START THIS ABOUT 16Z
ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT BY 18Z...TO THE WEST AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 18KTS AT KALB.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN A
VCSH AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASING TO MAXIMUM
VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. MIN RH VALUES SATURDAY WILL
DROP TO AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS INTO THIS EARLY EVENING WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND
5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV



000
FXUS61 KALY 010009
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
809 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THIS FIRST
WEEKEND OF AUGUST AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE ALONG WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT...A SHOWER HAD MADE IT INTO HERKIMER
COUNTY...HEADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE WERE OUT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE FRONT
OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.

WE THINK ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MAINLY THIS AREA...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT DRIFT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
WHERE THE AIR IS DRIER AND THERE IS NO SURFACE CONVERGENCE. STILL
SOME CLOUDS MIGHT DRIFT SOUTHWARD.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST TOUCHED UP THE HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE CURRENT AND NEAR TERM TRENDS.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE DESPITE THE FACT THAT CURRENT
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING HIGHER THAN ADVERTISED. ADJUSTED THEM
(THEY WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS...WELL INTO THE
70S HIGHER TERRAIN).

THE GUSTY WIND WAS RELAXING...BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN
SPOTS.

THE SKY FOR TONIGHTS BLUE MOON WILL RANGE FROM VARIABLY CLOUDY
NORTH- MOCLEAR SOUTH OF ALBANY WITH SEASONABLE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND OF AUGUST WILL FEATURE GRADUAL
FALLING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO ASSIST WITH
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS. H500 NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...FOR INITIALLY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TERRAIN THEN MIGRATING INTO THE
VALLEYS. PER THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSION...INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH THE NAM REMAINING MORE ROBUST THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. PER SPC...SWODY2 PLACES A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. WITHIN THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SUNSET. VARIABLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION AND WHERE
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE RESULT.
SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN.

SUNDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE IN ADVANCE
OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. AT THIS
TIME...THE NAM DOES SEEM OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKS AND
INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREENS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE DACKS. AS THE H850 TEMPS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE POSITIVE TEENS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR
TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80-85F DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A LARGE CLOSED OFF LOW AT 500
HPA WILL BE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA ON MONDAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE BOUNDARY AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END ON MONDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEASTERN US FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
LOWERING HEIGHTS OVERHEAD...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS AND IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AS WELL. TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME DIURNALLY
FORCED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
BY FRIDAY...AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL INTO ATLANTIC CANADA.  WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS IN CASE THE TROUGH HANGS IN
LONGER...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGFL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT IMPACT KGFL THROUGH
02Z SO VCSH THERE UNTIL 02Z. AT KGFL...WE THINK SOME MIST WILL
FORM AROUND 08Z...MOSTLY LIKELY DOWN TO JUST MVFR...BUT THIS
ASSUMES A DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND NO WIND.

WENT WITH MIFG FROM 08Z-11Z AT KPSF AND KPOU TO REFLECT THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT MVFR FOG MIGHT FORM.

AT KALB...WITH A LITTLE MORE OF A SOUTH WIND EXPECTED...KEPT FOG
OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z SAT...WHICH SHOULD LEAVE A MAINLY
VFR DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES...INCREASE
CLOUDS WITH BASES OVER 3000 FEET AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SHOWERS. PLACED VCSH IN ALL BUT KPOU TAF. WE START THIS ABOUT 16Z
ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT BY 18Z...TO THE WEST AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 18KTS AT KALB.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN A
VCSH AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASING TO MAXIMUM
VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. MIN RH VALUES SATURDAY WILL
DROP TO AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS INTO THIS EARLY EVENING WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND
5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV



000
FXUS61 KALY 010009
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
809 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THIS FIRST
WEEKEND OF AUGUST AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE ALONG WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT...A SHOWER HAD MADE IT INTO HERKIMER
COUNTY...HEADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE WERE OUT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE FRONT
OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.

WE THINK ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MAINLY THIS AREA...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT DRIFT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
WHERE THE AIR IS DRIER AND THERE IS NO SURFACE CONVERGENCE. STILL
SOME CLOUDS MIGHT DRIFT SOUTHWARD.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST TOUCHED UP THE HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE CURRENT AND NEAR TERM TRENDS.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE DESPITE THE FACT THAT CURRENT
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING HIGHER THAN ADVERTISED. ADJUSTED THEM
(THEY WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS...WELL INTO THE
70S HIGHER TERRAIN).

THE GUSTY WIND WAS RELAXING...BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN
SPOTS.

THE SKY FOR TONIGHTS BLUE MOON WILL RANGE FROM VARIABLY CLOUDY
NORTH- MOCLEAR SOUTH OF ALBANY WITH SEASONABLE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND OF AUGUST WILL FEATURE GRADUAL
FALLING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO ASSIST WITH
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS. H500 NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...FOR INITIALLY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TERRAIN THEN MIGRATING INTO THE
VALLEYS. PER THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSION...INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH THE NAM REMAINING MORE ROBUST THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. PER SPC...SWODY2 PLACES A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. WITHIN THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
SUNSET. VARIABLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION AND WHERE
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE RESULT.
SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN.

SUNDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE IN ADVANCE
OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. AT THIS
TIME...THE NAM DOES SEEM OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKS AND
INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY. CHC-SCT POPS FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREENS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE DACKS. AS THE H850 TEMPS REBOUND
BACK INTO THE POSITIVE TEENS...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR
TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80-85F DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A LARGE CLOSED OFF LOW AT 500
HPA WILL BE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA ON MONDAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE BOUNDARY AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END ON MONDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEASTERN US FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
LOWERING HEIGHTS OVERHEAD...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS AND IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AS WELL. TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE SOME DIURNALLY
FORCED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
BY FRIDAY...AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL INTO ATLANTIC CANADA.  WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS IN CASE THE TROUGH HANGS IN
LONGER...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGFL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT IMPACT KGFL THROUGH
02Z SO VCSH THERE UNTIL 02Z. AT KGFL...WE THINK SOME MIST WILL
FORM AROUND 08Z...MOSTLY LIKELY DOWN TO JUST MVFR...BUT THIS
ASSUMES A DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND NO WIND.

WENT WITH MIFG FROM 08Z-11Z AT KPSF AND KPOU TO REFLECT THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT MVFR FOG MIGHT FORM.

AT KALB...WITH A LITTLE MORE OF A SOUTH WIND EXPECTED...KEPT FOG
OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z SAT...WHICH SHOULD LEAVE A MAINLY
VFR DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES...INCREASE
CLOUDS WITH BASES OVER 3000 FEET AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SHOWERS. PLACED VCSH IN ALL BUT KPOU TAF. WE START THIS ABOUT 16Z
ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT BY 18Z...TO THE WEST AROUND
10KTS...GUSTING TO 18KTS AT KALB.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN A
VCSH AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASING TO MAXIMUM
VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. MIN RH VALUES SATURDAY WILL
DROP TO AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS INTO THIS EARLY EVENING WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND
5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/JPV
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV



000
FXUS61 KBGM 312354
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
754 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...
UPDATES FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH. FIRST BATCH WAS FROM NRN
ONONDAGA TO ONEIDA EARLIER. NOW A FEW SPITS WITHIN 30 MILES OF
HERE. MOSTLY LIGHT AND LESS THAN ISOLATED. SHOULD DIE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND BE GONE BY 10 PM ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS. TEMPERATURES
HOLDING UP WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

200 PM EDT UPDATE...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM STARTING AROUND
10PM. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS
THIS EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE UPPR 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND SO WILL
INSTABILITY... THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THESE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN... THUS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING SAT AND SUN.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON... WHICH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NY AND PA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT
LITTLE PRECIP UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN
VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY WEAK UPR LVL SYSTEM TRIGGERING A FEW SPRINKLES ATTM BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY XPCTD. OVRNGT...SECOND WEAK SYSTEM SWEEPS
THRU AND AGAIN MAY CAUSE A FEW SPRONKLES...WITH NO RESTRICTIONS.
HWVR...CLDS AND INCRSD MIXING SHD KEEP ANY VLY FOG FROM FRMG. VFR
CONDS CONT INTO SAT WITH THE WLY FLOW. ANOTHER UPR TROF SWINGS
BY...BUT SFC HIPRES SHD KEEP CONDS MAINLY CLR.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST LATE DAY MONDAY WITH COLD
FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTION.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH/TAC
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM/TAC




000
FXUS61 KBGM 312354
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
754 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...
UPDATES FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH. FIRST BATCH WAS FROM NRN
ONONDAGA TO ONEIDA EARLIER. NOW A FEW SPITS WITHIN 30 MILES OF
HERE. MOSTLY LIGHT AND LESS THAN ISOLATED. SHOULD DIE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND BE GONE BY 10 PM ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS. TEMPERATURES
HOLDING UP WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

200 PM EDT UPDATE...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM STARTING AROUND
10PM. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS
THIS EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE UPPR 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND SO WILL
INSTABILITY... THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THESE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN... THUS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING SAT AND SUN.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON... WHICH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NY AND PA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT
LITTLE PRECIP UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN
VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY WEAK UPR LVL SYSTEM TRIGGERING A FEW SPRINKLES ATTM BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY XPCTD. OVRNGT...SECOND WEAK SYSTEM SWEEPS
THRU AND AGAIN MAY CAUSE A FEW SPRONKLES...WITH NO RESTRICTIONS.
HWVR...CLDS AND INCRSD MIXING SHD KEEP ANY VLY FOG FROM FRMG. VFR
CONDS CONT INTO SAT WITH THE WLY FLOW. ANOTHER UPR TROF SWINGS
BY...BUT SFC HIPRES SHD KEEP CONDS MAINLY CLR.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST LATE DAY MONDAY WITH COLD
FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTION.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH/TAC
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM/TAC



000
FXUS61 KBGM 312340
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
740 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM STARTING AROUND
10PM. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS
THIS EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE UPPR 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND SO WILL
INSTABILITY... THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THESE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN... THUS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING SAT AND SUN.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON... WHICH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NY AND PA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT
LITTLE PRECIP UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN
VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VERY WEAK UPR LVL SYSTEM TRIGGERING A FEW SPRINKLES ATTM BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY XPCTD. OVRNGT...SECOND WEAK SYSTEM SWEEPS
THRU AND AGAIN MAY CAUSE A FEW SPRONKLES...WITH NO RESTRICTIONS.
HWVR...CLDS AND INCRSD MIXING SHD KEEP ANY VLY FOG FROM FRMG. VFR
CONDS CONT INTO SAT WITH THE WLY FLOW. ANOTHER UPR TROF SWINGS
BY...BUT SFC HIPRES SHD KEEP CONDS MAINLY CLR.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST LATE DAY MONDAY WITH COLD
FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTION.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM/TAC



000
FXUS61 KBGM 312340
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
740 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM STARTING AROUND
10PM. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS
THIS EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE UPPR 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND SO WILL
INSTABILITY... THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THESE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN... THUS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING SAT AND SUN.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON... WHICH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NY AND PA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT
LITTLE PRECIP UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN
VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VERY WEAK UPR LVL SYSTEM TRIGGERING A FEW SPRINKLES ATTM BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY XPCTD. OVRNGT...SECOND WEAK SYSTEM SWEEPS
THRU AND AGAIN MAY CAUSE A FEW SPRONKLES...WITH NO RESTRICTIONS.
HWVR...CLDS AND INCRSD MIXING SHD KEEP ANY VLY FOG FROM FRMG. VFR
CONDS CONT INTO SAT WITH THE WLY FLOW. ANOTHER UPR TROF SWINGS
BY...BUT SFC HIPRES SHD KEEP CONDS MAINLY CLR.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST LATE DAY MONDAY WITH COLD
FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTION.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM/TAC




000
FXUS61 KBGM 312340
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
740 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM STARTING AROUND
10PM. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS
THIS EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE UPPR 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND SO WILL
INSTABILITY... THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THESE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN... THUS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING SAT AND SUN.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON... WHICH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NY AND PA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT
LITTLE PRECIP UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN
VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VERY WEAK UPR LVL SYSTEM TRIGGERING A FEW SPRINKLES ATTM BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY XPCTD. OVRNGT...SECOND WEAK SYSTEM SWEEPS
THRU AND AGAIN MAY CAUSE A FEW SPRONKLES...WITH NO RESTRICTIONS.
HWVR...CLDS AND INCRSD MIXING SHD KEEP ANY VLY FOG FROM FRMG. VFR
CONDS CONT INTO SAT WITH THE WLY FLOW. ANOTHER UPR TROF SWINGS
BY...BUT SFC HIPRES SHD KEEP CONDS MAINLY CLR.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST LATE DAY MONDAY WITH COLD
FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTION.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM/TAC



000
FXUS61 KBGM 312340
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
740 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM STARTING AROUND
10PM. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE. TEMPS
THIS EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE UPPR 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND SO WILL
INSTABILITY... THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT THESE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN... THUS THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING SAT AND SUN.

A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON... WHICH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NY AND PA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. COOL PERIOD BUT
LITTLE PRECIP UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SO POSSIBLE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY. DRIER WED THEN THURSDAY A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSES FROM OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO NE PA AND MAYBE CENT NY. MODELS DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT OF TRACK WITH CANADIAN WELL NORTH INTO NY AND EURO IN
VA. GFS IN THE MIDDLE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VERY WEAK UPR LVL SYSTEM TRIGGERING A FEW SPRINKLES ATTM BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY XPCTD. OVRNGT...SECOND WEAK SYSTEM SWEEPS
THRU AND AGAIN MAY CAUSE A FEW SPRONKLES...WITH NO RESTRICTIONS.
HWVR...CLDS AND INCRSD MIXING SHD KEEP ANY VLY FOG FROM FRMG. VFR
CONDS CONT INTO SAT WITH THE WLY FLOW. ANOTHER UPR TROF SWINGS
BY...BUT SFC HIPRES SHD KEEP CONDS MAINLY CLR.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST LATE DAY MONDAY WITH COLD
FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE AFTN SHOWER CAUSING BRIEF
RESTRICTION.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM/TAC




000
FXUS61 KBTV 312334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
734 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT FRIDAY...DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PER EARLY EVENING
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE.
COMBINED WITH LOW DEWPOINTS/DRY VERTICAL COLUMN...WILL HAVE GOOD
VIEWING CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR THE RISE OF THE
BLUE MOON BETWEEN 810-820PM. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY NEXT 1-2 HRS.
LEADING SHOWERS JUST WEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN NY LATE EVENING...AND ULTIMATELY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30 POPS ACROSS NRN VT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH RAINFALL
AMTS EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS OVERNIGHT
GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 040-070AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 18-00Z THEN LIGHT. AFTER
00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK
TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT-BKN040-060 AND VICINITY SHRA ACROSS THE
REGION AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG



000
FXUS61 KBTV 312334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
734 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT FRIDAY...DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PER EARLY EVENING
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE.
COMBINED WITH LOW DEWPOINTS/DRY VERTICAL COLUMN...WILL HAVE GOOD
VIEWING CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR THE RISE OF THE
BLUE MOON BETWEEN 810-820PM. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY NEXT 1-2 HRS.
LEADING SHOWERS JUST WEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN NY LATE EVENING...AND ULTIMATELY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30 POPS ACROSS NRN VT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH RAINFALL
AMTS EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS OVERNIGHT
GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 040-070AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 18-00Z THEN LIGHT. AFTER
00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK
TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT-BKN040-060 AND VICINITY SHRA ACROSS THE
REGION AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 312334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
734 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT FRIDAY...DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PER EARLY EVENING
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE.
COMBINED WITH LOW DEWPOINTS/DRY VERTICAL COLUMN...WILL HAVE GOOD
VIEWING CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR THE RISE OF THE
BLUE MOON BETWEEN 810-820PM. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY NEXT 1-2 HRS.
LEADING SHOWERS JUST WEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN NY LATE EVENING...AND ULTIMATELY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30 POPS ACROSS NRN VT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH RAINFALL
AMTS EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS OVERNIGHT
GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 040-070AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 18-00Z THEN LIGHT. AFTER
00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK
TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT-BKN040-060 AND VICINITY SHRA ACROSS THE
REGION AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 312334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
734 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT FRIDAY...DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PER EARLY EVENING
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE.
COMBINED WITH LOW DEWPOINTS/DRY VERTICAL COLUMN...WILL HAVE GOOD
VIEWING CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR THE RISE OF THE
BLUE MOON BETWEEN 810-820PM. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY NEXT 1-2 HRS.
LEADING SHOWERS JUST WEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN NY LATE EVENING...AND ULTIMATELY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30 POPS ACROSS NRN VT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH RAINFALL
AMTS EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS OVERNIGHT
GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 040-070AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 18-00Z THEN LIGHT. AFTER
00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK
TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT-BKN040-060 AND VICINITY SHRA ACROSS THE
REGION AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 312334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
734 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT FRIDAY...DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PER EARLY EVENING
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE.
COMBINED WITH LOW DEWPOINTS/DRY VERTICAL COLUMN...WILL HAVE GOOD
VIEWING CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR THE RISE OF THE
BLUE MOON BETWEEN 810-820PM. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY NEXT 1-2 HRS.
LEADING SHOWERS JUST WEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN NY LATE EVENING...AND ULTIMATELY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30 POPS ACROSS NRN VT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH RAINFALL
AMTS EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS OVERNIGHT
GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 040-070AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 18-00Z THEN LIGHT. AFTER
00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK
TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT-BKN040-060 AND VICINITY SHRA ACROSS THE
REGION AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 312334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
734 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT FRIDAY...DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PER EARLY EVENING
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE.
COMBINED WITH LOW DEWPOINTS/DRY VERTICAL COLUMN...WILL HAVE GOOD
VIEWING CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR THE RISE OF THE
BLUE MOON BETWEEN 810-820PM. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY NEXT 1-2 HRS.
LEADING SHOWERS JUST WEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN NY LATE EVENING...AND ULTIMATELY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30 POPS ACROSS NRN VT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH RAINFALL
AMTS EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS OVERNIGHT
GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 040-070AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 18-00Z THEN LIGHT. AFTER
00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK
TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT-BKN040-060 AND VICINITY SHRA ACROSS THE
REGION AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KOKX 312307
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
707 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DECENT MIXING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH NW FLOW
HAS ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. AT
EWR...THE DEW POINT WAS 49 AT 22 UTC. THIS NW FLOW HAS BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH TO HOLD THE SEA BREEZE FROM MAKING MUCH PROGRESS FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING...DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER INTO
THE LOWER 60S. HAVE UPDATED THE DATABASE TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED
AND A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NYC METRO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NYC AREA TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. WIND WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND MORE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY. SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE AT KJFK.


   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 312307
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
707 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DECENT MIXING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH NW FLOW
HAS ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. AT
EWR...THE DEW POINT WAS 49 AT 22 UTC. THIS NW FLOW HAS BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH TO HOLD THE SEA BREEZE FROM MAKING MUCH PROGRESS FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING...DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER INTO
THE LOWER 60S. HAVE UPDATED THE DATABASE TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED
AND A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NYC METRO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NYC AREA TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. WIND WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND MORE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY. SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE AT KJFK.


   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW



000
FXUS61 KOKX 312238
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
638 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DECENT MIXING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH NW FLOW
HAS ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. AT
EWR...THE DEW POINT WAS 49 AT 22 UTC. THIS NW FLOW HAS BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH TO HOLD THE SEA BREEZE FROM MAKING MUCH PROGRESS FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING...DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER INTO
THE LOWER 60S. HAVE UPDATED THE DATABASE TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED
AND A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NYC METRO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT HANGS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR.

SEABREEZE FRONT...SOUTH OF KJFK...EXPECTED IT TO WORK NORTH
THROUGH JFK BY 20Z. SW FLOW SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT KBDR/KGON. SSW
SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE IT INTO KISP BY 21Z. ELSEWHERE...WSW WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND SETTLING TO THE
WSW. W/SW FLOW STRENGTHENS SAT MORNING.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN S SEABREEZE BETWEEN 20Z
AND 21Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC THROUGH EARLY EVE. LOW PROB OF SEABREEZE (AFT 22-23Z).

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC THROUGH EARLY EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SSW SEABREEZE EXPECTED BY 21-22Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT AFT...VFR. W WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. SW
WINDS LIKELY AT SOUTH COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH LOW PROB OF S
SEABREEZE. LOW PROB AND SPARSE AFT SHRA/TSRA THREAT FOR NYC/NJ
AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW...COASTAL SEABREEZE.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. FROPA WITH S WINDS...SHIFTING TO THE
W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW



000
FXUS61 KOKX 312238
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
638 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DECENT MIXING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH NW FLOW
HAS ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. AT
EWR...THE DEW POINT WAS 49 AT 22 UTC. THIS NW FLOW HAS BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH TO HOLD THE SEA BREEZE FROM MAKING MUCH PROGRESS FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING...DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER INTO
THE LOWER 60S. HAVE UPDATED THE DATABASE TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED
AND A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NYC METRO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT HANGS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR.

SEABREEZE FRONT...SOUTH OF KJFK...EXPECTED IT TO WORK NORTH
THROUGH JFK BY 20Z. SW FLOW SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT KBDR/KGON. SSW
SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE IT INTO KISP BY 21Z. ELSEWHERE...WSW WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND SETTLING TO THE
WSW. W/SW FLOW STRENGTHENS SAT MORNING.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN S SEABREEZE BETWEEN 20Z
AND 21Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC THROUGH EARLY EVE. LOW PROB OF SEABREEZE (AFT 22-23Z).

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC THROUGH EARLY EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SSW SEABREEZE EXPECTED BY 21-22Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT AFT...VFR. W WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. SW
WINDS LIKELY AT SOUTH COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH LOW PROB OF S
SEABREEZE. LOW PROB AND SPARSE AFT SHRA/TSRA THREAT FOR NYC/NJ
AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW...COASTAL SEABREEZE.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. FROPA WITH S WINDS...SHIFTING TO THE
W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 312238
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
638 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DECENT MIXING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH NW FLOW
HAS ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. AT
EWR...THE DEW POINT WAS 49 AT 22 UTC. THIS NW FLOW HAS BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH TO HOLD THE SEA BREEZE FROM MAKING MUCH PROGRESS FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING...DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER INTO
THE LOWER 60S. HAVE UPDATED THE DATABASE TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED
AND A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NYC METRO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT HANGS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR.

SEABREEZE FRONT...SOUTH OF KJFK...EXPECTED IT TO WORK NORTH
THROUGH JFK BY 20Z. SW FLOW SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT KBDR/KGON. SSW
SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE IT INTO KISP BY 21Z. ELSEWHERE...WSW WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND SETTLING TO THE
WSW. W/SW FLOW STRENGTHENS SAT MORNING.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN S SEABREEZE BETWEEN 20Z
AND 21Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC THROUGH EARLY EVE. LOW PROB OF SEABREEZE (AFT 22-23Z).

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC THROUGH EARLY EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SSW SEABREEZE EXPECTED BY 21-22Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT AFT...VFR. W WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. SW
WINDS LIKELY AT SOUTH COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH LOW PROB OF S
SEABREEZE. LOW PROB AND SPARSE AFT SHRA/TSRA THREAT FOR NYC/NJ
AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW...COASTAL SEABREEZE.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. FROPA WITH S WINDS...SHIFTING TO THE
W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW



000
FXUS61 KOKX 312238
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
638 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DECENT MIXING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH NW FLOW
HAS ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. AT
EWR...THE DEW POINT WAS 49 AT 22 UTC. THIS NW FLOW HAS BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH TO HOLD THE SEA BREEZE FROM MAKING MUCH PROGRESS FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING...DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER INTO
THE LOWER 60S. HAVE UPDATED THE DATABASE TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED
AND A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NYC METRO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT HANGS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR.

SEABREEZE FRONT...SOUTH OF KJFK...EXPECTED IT TO WORK NORTH
THROUGH JFK BY 20Z. SW FLOW SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT KBDR/KGON. SSW
SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE IT INTO KISP BY 21Z. ELSEWHERE...WSW WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND SETTLING TO THE
WSW. W/SW FLOW STRENGTHENS SAT MORNING.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN S SEABREEZE BETWEEN 20Z
AND 21Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC THROUGH EARLY EVE. LOW PROB OF SEABREEZE (AFT 22-23Z).

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC THROUGH EARLY EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SSW SEABREEZE EXPECTED BY 21-22Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT AFT...VFR. W WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. SW
WINDS LIKELY AT SOUTH COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH LOW PROB OF S
SEABREEZE. LOW PROB AND SPARSE AFT SHRA/TSRA THREAT FOR NYC/NJ
AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW...COASTAL SEABREEZE.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. FROPA WITH S WINDS...SHIFTING TO THE
W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW



000
FXUS61 KOKX 312238
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
638 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DECENT MIXING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH NW FLOW
HAS ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. AT
EWR...THE DEW POINT WAS 49 AT 22 UTC. THIS NW FLOW HAS BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH TO HOLD THE SEA BREEZE FROM MAKING MUCH PROGRESS FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING...DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER INTO
THE LOWER 60S. HAVE UPDATED THE DATABASE TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED
AND A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NYC METRO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT HANGS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR.

SEABREEZE FRONT...SOUTH OF KJFK...EXPECTED IT TO WORK NORTH
THROUGH JFK BY 20Z. SW FLOW SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT KBDR/KGON. SSW
SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE IT INTO KISP BY 21Z. ELSEWHERE...WSW WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND SETTLING TO THE
WSW. W/SW FLOW STRENGTHENS SAT MORNING.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN S SEABREEZE BETWEEN 20Z
AND 21Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC THROUGH EARLY EVE. LOW PROB OF SEABREEZE (AFT 22-23Z).

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC THROUGH EARLY EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SSW SEABREEZE EXPECTED BY 21-22Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT AFT...VFR. W WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. SW
WINDS LIKELY AT SOUTH COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH LOW PROB OF S
SEABREEZE. LOW PROB AND SPARSE AFT SHRA/TSRA THREAT FOR NYC/NJ
AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW...COASTAL SEABREEZE.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. FROPA WITH S WINDS...SHIFTING TO THE
W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW



000
FXUS61 KOKX 312238
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
638 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN DEPARTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING IN BETWEEN.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DECENT MIXING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH NW FLOW
HAS ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. AT
EWR...THE DEW POINT WAS 49 AT 22 UTC. THIS NW FLOW HAS BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH TO HOLD THE SEA BREEZE FROM MAKING MUCH PROGRESS FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING...DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER INTO
THE LOWER 60S. HAVE UPDATED THE DATABASE TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

DRY FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. MOS BLEND WAS FOLLOWED
AND A GENERAL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NYC METRO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS THEY PROG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...PASSING TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE COMPARED TO ECMWF/GFS AND CMC.

LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CAP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS NOTED ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK LIFT. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND BELIEVE
SRN CT AND NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST COVERAGE
BASED ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TO HOT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LOW. DUE NOT EXPECT A TRUE SEA BREEZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...TO AROUND 90 IN SPOTS. THEN...TEMPS REMAIN RATHER
WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOLLOWED A MOS
BLEND...MET/MAV/ECS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO TOP OFF
AROUND 90 DEGREES IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW AWAY FROM THE
COASTS...AS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN/AROUND NYC...AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS COASTAL CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS/SHORTWAVES AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THAT
TIME. WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S AND APPROACH 70. AS
A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMB WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FOR NOW...THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GFS AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN THE ECMWF.
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND SFC DEW POINTS WELL IN THE 60S...THEN TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT HANGS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

VFR.

SEABREEZE FRONT...SOUTH OF KJFK...EXPECTED IT TO WORK NORTH
THROUGH JFK BY 20Z. SW FLOW SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT KBDR/KGON. SSW
SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE IT INTO KISP BY 21Z. ELSEWHERE...WSW WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND SETTLING TO THE
WSW. W/SW FLOW STRENGTHENS SAT MORNING.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN S SEABREEZE BETWEEN 20Z
AND 21Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC THROUGH EARLY EVE. LOW PROB OF SEABREEZE (AFT 22-23Z).

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC THROUGH EARLY EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SSW SEABREEZE EXPECTED BY 21-22Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT AFT...VFR. W WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. SW
WINDS LIKELY AT SOUTH COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH LOW PROB OF S
SEABREEZE. LOW PROB AND SPARSE AFT SHRA/TSRA THREAT FOR NYC/NJ
AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR. SW/S FLOW...COASTAL SEABREEZE.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. FROPA WITH S WINDS...SHIFTING TO THE
W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SW. SPEEDS LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND LOOK TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. AS SUCH...WILL POST A SCA
FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE NON
OCEAN WATERS.

A TIGHT SW GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THEN GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...RESULTING IN OCNL SCA CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...DS/PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...AFTER A DAY WHICH FEATURED A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN...NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. THIS IS DUE TO A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT NOW
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED...HAVE LEFT IN MENTION OF
THUNDER. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 040-070AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 18-00Z THEN LIGHT. AFTER
00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK
TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT-BKN040-060 AND VICINITY SHRA ACROSS THE
REGION AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...AFTER A DAY WHICH FEATURED A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN...NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. THIS IS DUE TO A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT NOW
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED...HAVE LEFT IN MENTION OF
THUNDER. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 040-070AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 18-00Z THEN LIGHT. AFTER
00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK
TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT-BKN040-060 AND VICINITY SHRA ACROSS THE
REGION AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...AFTER A DAY WHICH FEATURED A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN...NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. THIS IS DUE TO A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT NOW
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED...HAVE LEFT IN MENTION OF
THUNDER. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-
6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST
SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
(SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 040-070AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 18-00Z THEN LIGHT. AFTER
00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK
TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT-BKN040-060 AND VICINITY SHRA ACROSS THE
REGION AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...AFTER A DAY WHICH FEATURED A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN...NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. THIS IS DUE TO A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT NOW
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED...HAVE LEFT IN MENTION OF
THUNDER. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER