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000
FXUS61 KALY 011002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
602 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE MOST
OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THESE CLOUDS MAY EXPAND A
BIT THROUGH SUNRISE...AS THEY DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG IS FORMING WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED
CLEAR...AND SOME COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE BY SUNRISE.

AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN MONDAY. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY
MORE SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.
IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
GIVING WAY TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. KALB AND KPOU ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. DURING TODAY FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A
LIGHT S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 011002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
602 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE MOST
OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THESE CLOUDS MAY EXPAND A
BIT THROUGH SUNRISE...AS THEY DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG IS FORMING WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED
CLEAR...AND SOME COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE BY SUNRISE.

AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN MONDAY. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY
MORE SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.
IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
GIVING WAY TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. KALB AND KPOU ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. DURING TODAY FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A
LIGHT S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBUF 010919
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
519 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE WARMTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING
WORKING TOGETHER WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO TRAP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. KBUF VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE TOPPED BY STRONGER NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
CLOSER TO 60 ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOWING UP AT 5AM ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE AREA. DENSE FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT KIAG AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER BUT IS CONSIDERED FAIRLY PATCHY BASED ON SURFACE OBS
AND PEEKING AT AREA WEBCAMS. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR NORTHERN ERIE AND NIAGARA COUNTIES WITH A SEPARATE STATEMENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO COVER FOR THE PATCHY DENSE FOG. IF MORE
WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF FOG DEVELOP THEN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
CONSIDERED.

11-3.9 MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS EXTEND ACROSS
A MUCH WIDER PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. OBS BENEATH THIS IMAGERY
IS SHOWING REDUCED 3-4 MILE VIS BUT BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUD DECKS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY MILD THIS MORNING
REFLECTING THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS
ONLY SLIPPING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OR MEETING DEWPOINTS.

THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE BY MID MORNING AS
DAYTIME MIXING BREAKS THE SURFACE INVERSION. AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND
850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID
DAY TODAY. HAVE TAKEN BACK TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BASED ON NEWER 00Z GUIDANCE AND STEEP INVERSION RIGHT AT
850MB WHICH MAY PREVENT THE FULL MIXING OF WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE
SURFACE. HIGHS NOW FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER STEAMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE LESS BULLISH ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
BENEATH THE INVERSION SO FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
EXTENSIVE AS THEY ARE THIS MORNING BUT HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAIN
STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

12Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE
ELEVATED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A
700MB INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. AREAS OF IFR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS THE REGION AT 9Z. EXPECT THAT OBS CAN STILL
FALL DOWN TO LIFR OR LOWER AS LIGHT FLOW OFF THE LAKES INCREASES LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 14-16Z THIS MORNING LEAVING
SUNNY VFR SKIES GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT AT LEAST PATCHY
FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL AGAIN BECOME POSSIBLE AFTER 6Z.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY FOG.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG IN PLACE AT LEAST EACH MORNING. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE
LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE
EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12
KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/SMITH



000
FXUS61 KBUF 010919
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
519 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE WARMTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING
WORKING TOGETHER WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO TRAP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. KBUF VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE TOPPED BY STRONGER NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
CLOSER TO 60 ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOWING UP AT 5AM ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE AREA. DENSE FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT KIAG AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER BUT IS CONSIDERED FAIRLY PATCHY BASED ON SURFACE OBS
AND PEEKING AT AREA WEBCAMS. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR NORTHERN ERIE AND NIAGARA COUNTIES WITH A SEPARATE STATEMENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO COVER FOR THE PATCHY DENSE FOG. IF MORE
WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF FOG DEVELOP THEN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
CONSIDERED.

11-3.9 MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS EXTEND ACROSS
A MUCH WIDER PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. OBS BENEATH THIS IMAGERY
IS SHOWING REDUCED 3-4 MILE VIS BUT BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUD DECKS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY MILD THIS MORNING
REFLECTING THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS
ONLY SLIPPING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OR MEETING DEWPOINTS.

THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE BY MID MORNING AS
DAYTIME MIXING BREAKS THE SURFACE INVERSION. AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND
850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID
DAY TODAY. HAVE TAKEN BACK TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BASED ON NEWER 00Z GUIDANCE AND STEEP INVERSION RIGHT AT
850MB WHICH MAY PREVENT THE FULL MIXING OF WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE
SURFACE. HIGHS NOW FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER STEAMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE LESS BULLISH ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
BENEATH THE INVERSION SO FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
EXTENSIVE AS THEY ARE THIS MORNING BUT HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAIN
STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

12Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE
ELEVATED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A
700MB INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. AREAS OF IFR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS THE REGION AT 9Z. EXPECT THAT OBS CAN STILL
FALL DOWN TO LIFR OR LOWER AS LIGHT FLOW OFF THE LAKES INCREASES LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 14-16Z THIS MORNING LEAVING
SUNNY VFR SKIES GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT AT LEAST PATCHY
FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL AGAIN BECOME POSSIBLE AFTER 6Z.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY FOG.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG IN PLACE AT LEAST EACH MORNING. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE
LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE
EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12
KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KALY 010816
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE MOST
OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THESE CLOUDS MAY EXPAND A
BIT THROUGH SUNRISE...AS THEY DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG IS FORMING WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED
CLEAR...AND SOME COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE BY SUNRISE.

AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN MONDAY. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY
MORE SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.
IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS PSBL WITH LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND
KPSF. KALB AND KPOU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. ANY FOG SHOULD
LIFT RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY SOME MVFR FOG
AGAIN AT KGFL AND KPSF TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 010816
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE MOST
OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THESE CLOUDS MAY EXPAND A
BIT THROUGH SUNRISE...AS THEY DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG IS FORMING WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED
CLEAR...AND SOME COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE BY SUNRISE.

AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN MONDAY. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY
MORE SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.
IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS PSBL WITH LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND
KPSF. KALB AND KPOU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. ANY FOG SHOULD
LIFT RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY SOME MVFR FOG
AGAIN AT KGFL AND KPSF TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 010816
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS TO BE RAIN FREE MOST
OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THESE CLOUDS MAY EXPAND A
BIT THROUGH SUNRISE...AS THEY DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG IS FORMING WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED
CLEAR...AND SOME COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE BY SUNRISE.

AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN MONDAY. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY
MORE SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH IN PLACE. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.
IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLY FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...AND A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY GREATER MIXING DEPTH...AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS...AND 80-85 ACROSS MOST
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE MAX TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...WILL PRODUCE MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95 IN
VALLEYS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE AT NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS
REGION IN CASE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED
BEFORE ULTIMATELY WEAKENING. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN
TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND DYNAMICS
WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY FRI AM
SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR TO AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS PSBL WITH LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND
KPSF. KALB AND KPOU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. ANY FOG SHOULD
LIFT RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY SOME MVFR FOG
AGAIN AT KGFL AND KPSF TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 40-50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 45-55 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON. MAX RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUE NT.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT
OCCURRED AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3
WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 010800
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TODAY
AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.
DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO
AROUND 18C THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...OR ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
1ST OF SEPTEMBER. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV TODAY IS 76.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEAK FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS 18-20C...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN
THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACH
OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS COOL
A BIT...TO AROUND 14C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010800
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TODAY
AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.
DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO
AROUND 18C THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...OR ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
1ST OF SEPTEMBER. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV TODAY IS 76.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEAK FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS 18-20C...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN
THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACH
OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS COOL
A BIT...TO AROUND 14C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010800
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TODAY
AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.
DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO
AROUND 18C THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...OR ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
1ST OF SEPTEMBER. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV TODAY IS 76.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEAK FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS 18-20C...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN
THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACH
OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS COOL
A BIT...TO AROUND 14C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010800
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TODAY
AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.
DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO
AROUND 18C THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...OR ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
1ST OF SEPTEMBER. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV TODAY IS 76.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEAK FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS 18-20C...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN
THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACH
OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS COOL
A BIT...TO AROUND 14C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 010729 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
329 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES JUST TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN
RETREATS NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY...THEN MOVES THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER AT A MINIMUM.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875-825 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE OF
MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS TONIGHT
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
MIXED IN OVER URBAN AREAS. LOWS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURE IN URBAN AREAS.

THE FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY GOES ZONAL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE
S...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WNW-NW ALOFT BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO FAR TO THE SW/S TO CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION...SO WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE CMC-REGIONAL MODEL DOES
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY W OF NYC...BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...MIXING
DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THOSE TODAY. HEAT
INDICES PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S IN URBAN AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREPARE FOR INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE DANGER WEATHER THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY.

WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN END AS
FORECAST MODELS CONT TO SHOW A DIGGING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A BUILDING HIGH
PRES SYSTEM OVER SE CANADA TO PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCT-SCT TSTMS. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE LONG TERM.

FRI-SUNDAY...A REFRESHING MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ON EAST WINDS
REPLACES THE PERSISTENT MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

WITH YET ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRES MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ALONG WITH FIRE DANGER WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE N/NW AT LESS THAN 10 KT. AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB
THIS EVENING.

VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF AROUND DAYBREAK.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF AFTERNOON WIND SHIFT...THAT COULD BE OFF BY
+/- 1 HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY KEEP WINDS
AT UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS AND ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS 1 FT OR
LESS AS A RESULT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 KT AND
SEAS OF 5 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/GC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/GC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/GC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010729
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
329 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES JUST TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN
RETREATS NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. A WEAK FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER AT A MINIMUM.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875-825 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE OF
MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS TONIGHT
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
MIXED IN OVER URBAN AREAS. LOWS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURE IN URBAN AREAS.

THE FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY GOES ZONAL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE
S...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WNW-NW ALOFT BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO FAR TO THE SW/S TO CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION...SO WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE CMC-REGIONAL MODEL DOES
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY W OF NYC...BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...MIXING
DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THOSE TODAY. HEAT
INDICES PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S IN URBAN AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREPARE FOR INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE DANGER WEATHER THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY.

WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN END AS
FORECAST MODELS CONT TO SHOW A DIGGING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A BUILDING HIGH
PRES SYSTEM OVER SE CANADA TO PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCT-SCT TSTMS. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE LONG TERM.

FRI-SUNDAY...A REFRESHING MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ON EAST WINDS
REPLACES THE PERSISTENT MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

WITH YET ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRES MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ALONG WITH FIRE DANGER WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE N/NW AT LESS THAN 10 KT. AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB
THIS EVENING.

VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF AROUND DAYBREAK.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF AFTERNOON WIND SHIFT...THAT COULD BE OFF BY
+/- 1 HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY KEEP WINDS
AT UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS AND ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS 1 FT OR
LESS AS A RESULT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 KT AND
SEAS OF 5 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/GC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/GC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/GC



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010729
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
329 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES JUST TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN
RETREATS NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. A WEAK FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER AT A MINIMUM.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875-825 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE OF
MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS TONIGHT
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
MIXED IN OVER URBAN AREAS. LOWS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURE IN URBAN AREAS.

THE FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY GOES ZONAL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE
S...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WNW-NW ALOFT BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO FAR TO THE SW/S TO CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION...SO WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE CMC-REGIONAL MODEL DOES
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY W OF NYC...BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...MIXING
DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THOSE TODAY. HEAT
INDICES PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S IN URBAN AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREPARE FOR INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE DANGER WEATHER THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY.

WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN END AS
FORECAST MODELS CONT TO SHOW A DIGGING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A BUILDING HIGH
PRES SYSTEM OVER SE CANADA TO PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCT-SCT TSTMS. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE LONG TERM.

FRI-SUNDAY...A REFRESHING MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ON EAST WINDS
REPLACES THE PERSISTENT MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

WITH YET ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRES MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ALONG WITH FIRE DANGER WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE N/NW AT LESS THAN 10 KT. AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB
THIS EVENING.

VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF AROUND DAYBREAK.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF AFTERNOON WIND SHIFT...THAT COULD BE OFF BY
+/- 1 HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY KEEP WINDS
AT UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS AND ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS 1 FT OR
LESS AS A RESULT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 KT AND
SEAS OF 5 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/GC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/GC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/GC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010729 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
329 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES JUST TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN
RETREATS NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY...THEN MOVES THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER AT A MINIMUM.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875-825 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE OF
MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS TONIGHT
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
MIXED IN OVER URBAN AREAS. LOWS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURE IN URBAN AREAS.

THE FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY GOES ZONAL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE
S...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WNW-NW ALOFT BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO FAR TO THE SW/S TO CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION...SO WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE CMC-REGIONAL MODEL DOES
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY W OF NYC...BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...MIXING
DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THOSE TODAY. HEAT
INDICES PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S IN URBAN AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREPARE FOR INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE DANGER WEATHER THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY.

WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN END AS
FORECAST MODELS CONT TO SHOW A DIGGING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A BUILDING HIGH
PRES SYSTEM OVER SE CANADA TO PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCT-SCT TSTMS. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE LONG TERM.

FRI-SUNDAY...A REFRESHING MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ON EAST WINDS
REPLACES THE PERSISTENT MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

WITH YET ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRES MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ALONG WITH FIRE DANGER WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE N/NW AT LESS THAN 10 KT. AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB
THIS EVENING.

VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF AROUND DAYBREAK.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF AFTERNOON WIND SHIFT...THAT COULD BE OFF BY
+/- 1 HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY KEEP WINDS
AT UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS AND ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS 1 FT OR
LESS AS A RESULT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 KT AND
SEAS OF 5 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/GC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/GC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/GC



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010729 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
329 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES JUST TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN
RETREATS NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY...THEN MOVES THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER AT A MINIMUM.

FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875-825 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE OF
MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS TONIGHT
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
MIXED IN OVER URBAN AREAS. LOWS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURE IN URBAN AREAS.

THE FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY GOES ZONAL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE
S...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WNW-NW ALOFT BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO FAR TO THE SW/S TO CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION...SO WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE CMC-REGIONAL MODEL DOES
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY W OF NYC...BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...MIXING
DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THOSE TODAY. HEAT
INDICES PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S IN URBAN AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREPARE FOR INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE DANGER WEATHER THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY.

WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN END AS
FORECAST MODELS CONT TO SHOW A DIGGING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A BUILDING HIGH
PRES SYSTEM OVER SE CANADA TO PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCT-SCT TSTMS. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE LONG TERM.

FRI-SUNDAY...A REFRESHING MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ON EAST WINDS
REPLACES THE PERSISTENT MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

WITH YET ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRES MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ALONG WITH FIRE DANGER WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE N/NW AT LESS THAN 10 KT. AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB
THIS EVENING.

VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF AROUND DAYBREAK.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF AFTERNOON WIND SHIFT...THAT COULD BE OFF BY
+/- 1 HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. AMDS
POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY KEEP WINDS
AT UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS AND ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS 1 FT OR
LESS AS A RESULT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 KT AND
SEAS OF 5 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/GC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/GC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/GC


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBGM 010718
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
318 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS
ALOFT ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WE
HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE FOG DOES NOT
BURN OFF AS QUICKLY... THUS EXPECT FOG TO LAST THROUGH 14Z. ONCE
FOG LIFTS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER WED. A WEAK
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVER NY/PA WED
AFTERNOON CREATING ENOUGH FORCING FOR CLOUD COVERAGE OVER PA TO
INCREASE. BELIEVE IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE... SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. THURS THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO RETROGRADE
AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER NY. THIS MAY
CREATED ENOUGH OF A SFC BOUNDARY TO CREATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM ARE LOW.

TEMPS WED AND THURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE: ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR
FRIDAY AS I SHAVED BACK NORTHERN EXTENT OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE TWIN TIERS. OTHERWISE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR
AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC
OF A WEAK BACK- DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON
THURSDAY. THE STACKED RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN
THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD
SEE SOME INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG.

AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO SET UP AS OF THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT KELM/KITH/KBGM TO SEE IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS
BELOW ALTERNATE MINS THIS MORNING. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE KELM
COULD SEE VIS GO BELOW AIRPORT MINS NEAR SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FOR KAVP/KRME EXPECT MVFR
VISBYS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY
MORNING. KSYR SHOULD STAY VFR. ALL SITES GO VFR BY 14Z.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB/PCF
AVIATION...PCF



000
FXUS61 KBGM 010718
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
318 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS
ALOFT ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WE
HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE FOG DOES NOT
BURN OFF AS QUICKLY... THUS EXPECT FOG TO LAST THROUGH 14Z. ONCE
FOG LIFTS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER WED. A WEAK
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVER NY/PA WED
AFTERNOON CREATING ENOUGH FORCING FOR CLOUD COVERAGE OVER PA TO
INCREASE. BELIEVE IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE... SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. THURS THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO RETROGRADE
AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER NY. THIS MAY
CREATED ENOUGH OF A SFC BOUNDARY TO CREATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM ARE LOW.

TEMPS WED AND THURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE: ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR
FRIDAY AS I SHAVED BACK NORTHERN EXTENT OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE TWIN TIERS. OTHERWISE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR
AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC
OF A WEAK BACK- DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON
THURSDAY. THE STACKED RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN
THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD
SEE SOME INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG.

AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO SET UP AS OF THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT KELM/KITH/KBGM TO SEE IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS
BELOW ALTERNATE MINS THIS MORNING. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE KELM
COULD SEE VIS GO BELOW AIRPORT MINS NEAR SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FOR KAVP/KRME EXPECT MVFR
VISBYS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY
MORNING. KSYR SHOULD STAY VFR. ALL SITES GO VFR BY 14Z.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB/PCF
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010652
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010652
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010652
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010652
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010652
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010652
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE`LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 010651
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
251 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS
ALOFT ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WE
HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE FOG DOES NOT
BURN OFF AS QUICKLY... THUS EXPECT FOG TO LAST THROUGH 14Z. ONCE
FOG LIFTS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER WED. A WEAK
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVER NY/PA WED
AFTERNOON CREATING ENOUGH FORCING FOR CLOUD COVERAGE OVER PA TO
INCREASE. BELIEVE IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE... SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. THURS THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO RETROGRAGE
AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER NY. THIS MAY
CREATED ENOUGH OF A SFC BOUNDARY TO CREATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM ARE LOW.

TEMPS WED AND THURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG.

AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO SET UP AS OF THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT KELM/KITH/KBGM TO SEE IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS
BELOW ALTERNATE MINS THIS MORNING. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE KELM
COULD SEE VIS GO BELOW AIRPORT MINS NEAR SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FOR KAVP/KRME EXPECT MVFR
VISBYS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY
MORNING. KSYR SHOULD STAY VFR. ALL SITES GO VFR BY 14Z.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 010651
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
251 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS
ALOFT ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WE
HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE FOG DOES NOT
BURN OFF AS QUICKLY... THUS EXPECT FOG TO LAST THROUGH 14Z. ONCE
FOG LIFTS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER WED. A WEAK
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVER NY/PA WED
AFTERNOON CREATING ENOUGH FORCING FOR CLOUD COVERAGE OVER PA TO
INCREASE. BELIEVE IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE... SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. THURS THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO RETROGRAGE
AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER NY. THIS MAY
CREATED ENOUGH OF A SFC BOUNDARY TO CREATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM ARE LOW.

TEMPS WED AND THURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG.

AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO SET UP AS OF THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT KELM/KITH/KBGM TO SEE IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS
BELOW ALTERNATE MINS THIS MORNING. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE KELM
COULD SEE VIS GO BELOW AIRPORT MINS NEAR SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FOR KAVP/KRME EXPECT MVFR
VISBYS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY
MORNING. KSYR SHOULD STAY VFR. ALL SITES GO VFR BY 14Z.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN/PCF



000
FXUS61 KBGM 010651
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
251 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS
ALOFT ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WE
HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE FOG DOES NOT
BURN OFF AS QUICKLY... THUS EXPECT FOG TO LAST THROUGH 14Z. ONCE
FOG LIFTS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER WED. A WEAK
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVER NY/PA WED
AFTERNOON CREATING ENOUGH FORCING FOR CLOUD COVERAGE OVER PA TO
INCREASE. BELIEVE IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE... SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. THURS THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO RETROGRAGE
AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER NY. THIS MAY
CREATED ENOUGH OF A SFC BOUNDARY TO CREATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM ARE LOW.

TEMPS WED AND THURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG.

AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO SET UP AS OF THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT KELM/KITH/KBGM TO SEE IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS
BELOW ALTERNATE MINS THIS MORNING. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE KELM
COULD SEE VIS GO BELOW AIRPORT MINS NEAR SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FOR KAVP/KRME EXPECT MVFR
VISBYS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY
MORNING. KSYR SHOULD STAY VFR. ALL SITES GO VFR BY 14Z.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN/PCF



000
FXUS61 KBGM 010651
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
251 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS
ALOFT ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WE
HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE FOG DOES NOT
BURN OFF AS QUICKLY... THUS EXPECT FOG TO LAST THROUGH 14Z. ONCE
FOG LIFTS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER WED. A WEAK
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVER NY/PA WED
AFTERNOON CREATING ENOUGH FORCING FOR CLOUD COVERAGE OVER PA TO
INCREASE. BELIEVE IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE... SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. THURS THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO RETROGRAGE
AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER NY. THIS MAY
CREATED ENOUGH OF A SFC BOUNDARY TO CREATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM ARE LOW.

TEMPS WED AND THURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG.

AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO SET UP AS OF THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT KELM/KITH/KBGM TO SEE IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS
BELOW ALTERNATE MINS THIS MORNING. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE KELM
COULD SEE VIS GO BELOW AIRPORT MINS NEAR SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FOR KAVP/KRME EXPECT MVFR
VISBYS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY
MORNING. KSYR SHOULD STAY VFR. ALL SITES GO VFR BY 14Z.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010626
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
226 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING
WORKING TOGETHER WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO TRAP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. KBUF VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE TOPPED BY STRONGER NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

HIGH DEWPOINTS CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS OF FOG SHOWING UP AT 2AM ACROSS
NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA. WHILE DENSE FOG HAS NOT SHOWN UP JUST
YET...NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE MOST PROBABLE AREAS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
RIVER VALLEYS AND EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. 11-3.9 MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME DENSE FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY ALREADY BE
DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF KBUF FROM LAKE ERIE EAST TO SOUTH OF KROC
AS FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE CONTINUES TO SATURATE THE SURFACE LAYER
BENEATH THE INVERSION. HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING FROM BUFFALO NORTH TO NIAGARA FALLS
UP TIL SUNRISE WHICH MAY REQUIRE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF THE
SCENARIO WORKS OUT. A SIMILAR SCENARIO MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS
OSWEGO/JEFFERSON COUNTIES NEAR LAKE ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY MILD THIS MORNING
REFLECTING THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS
ONLY SLIPPING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OR MEETING DEWPOINTS.

AFTER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...SUNSHINE
AND 850MB TEMPS ABOUT +20C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S TO AROUND 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAIN
STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

12Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE
ELEVATED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A
700MB INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG ARE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AT 6Z. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
HRRR SUGGEST LIFR OR LOWER VIS AND CIGS WILL DEVELOP TOWARD 10Z AT
ALL SITES AS LIGHT FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES INCREASES LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. KROC MAY NOT GO AS LOW AS LIFR BUT IFR LIKELY.

ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 14-16Z THIS MORNING LEAVING
SUNNY VFR SKIES GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG IN PLACE AT LEAST EACH MORNING. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE
LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE
EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12
KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/SMITH



000
FXUS61 KBUF 010626
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
226 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING
WORKING TOGETHER WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO TRAP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. KBUF VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE TOPPED BY STRONGER NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

HIGH DEWPOINTS CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS OF FOG SHOWING UP AT 2AM ACROSS
NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA. WHILE DENSE FOG HAS NOT SHOWN UP JUST
YET...NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE MOST PROBABLE AREAS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
RIVER VALLEYS AND EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. 11-3.9 MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME DENSE FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY ALREADY BE
DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF KBUF FROM LAKE ERIE EAST TO SOUTH OF KROC
AS FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE CONTINUES TO SATURATE THE SURFACE LAYER
BENEATH THE INVERSION. HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING FROM BUFFALO NORTH TO NIAGARA FALLS
UP TIL SUNRISE WHICH MAY REQUIRE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF THE
SCENARIO WORKS OUT. A SIMILAR SCENARIO MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS
OSWEGO/JEFFERSON COUNTIES NEAR LAKE ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY MILD THIS MORNING
REFLECTING THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS
ONLY SLIPPING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OR MEETING DEWPOINTS.

AFTER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...SUNSHINE
AND 850MB TEMPS ABOUT +20C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S TO AROUND 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAIN
STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

12Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE
ELEVATED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A
700MB INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG ARE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AT 6Z. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
HRRR SUGGEST LIFR OR LOWER VIS AND CIGS WILL DEVELOP TOWARD 10Z AT
ALL SITES AS LIGHT FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES INCREASES LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. KROC MAY NOT GO AS LOW AS LIFR BUT IFR LIKELY.

ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 14-16Z THIS MORNING LEAVING
SUNNY VFR SKIES GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG IN PLACE AT LEAST EACH MORNING. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE
LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE
EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12
KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010626
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
226 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING
WORKING TOGETHER WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO TRAP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. KBUF VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE TOPPED BY STRONGER NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

HIGH DEWPOINTS CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS OF FOG SHOWING UP AT 2AM ACROSS
NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA. WHILE DENSE FOG HAS NOT SHOWN UP JUST
YET...NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE MOST PROBABLE AREAS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
RIVER VALLEYS AND EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. 11-3.9 MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME DENSE FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY ALREADY BE
DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF KBUF FROM LAKE ERIE EAST TO SOUTH OF KROC
AS FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE CONTINUES TO SATURATE THE SURFACE LAYER
BENEATH THE INVERSION. HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING FROM BUFFALO NORTH TO NIAGARA FALLS
UP TIL SUNRISE WHICH MAY REQUIRE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF THE
SCENARIO WORKS OUT. A SIMILAR SCENARIO MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS
OSWEGO/JEFFERSON COUNTIES NEAR LAKE ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY MILD THIS MORNING
REFLECTING THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS
ONLY SLIPPING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OR MEETING DEWPOINTS.

AFTER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...SUNSHINE
AND 850MB TEMPS ABOUT +20C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S TO AROUND 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAIN
STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

12Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE
ELEVATED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A
700MB INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG ARE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AT 6Z. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
HRRR SUGGEST LIFR OR LOWER VIS AND CIGS WILL DEVELOP TOWARD 10Z AT
ALL SITES AS LIGHT FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES INCREASES LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. KROC MAY NOT GO AS LOW AS LIFR BUT IFR LIKELY.

ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 14-16Z THIS MORNING LEAVING
SUNNY VFR SKIES GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG IN PLACE AT LEAST EACH MORNING. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE
LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE
EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12
KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/SMITH



000
FXUS61 KBUF 010626
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
226 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING
WORKING TOGETHER WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO TRAP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. KBUF VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE TOPPED BY STRONGER NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

HIGH DEWPOINTS CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS OF FOG SHOWING UP AT 2AM ACROSS
NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA. WHILE DENSE FOG HAS NOT SHOWN UP JUST
YET...NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE MOST PROBABLE AREAS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
RIVER VALLEYS AND EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. 11-3.9 MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME DENSE FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY ALREADY BE
DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF KBUF FROM LAKE ERIE EAST TO SOUTH OF KROC
AS FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE CONTINUES TO SATURATE THE SURFACE LAYER
BENEATH THE INVERSION. HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING FROM BUFFALO NORTH TO NIAGARA FALLS
UP TIL SUNRISE WHICH MAY REQUIRE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF THE
SCENARIO WORKS OUT. A SIMILAR SCENARIO MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS
OSWEGO/JEFFERSON COUNTIES NEAR LAKE ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY MILD THIS MORNING
REFLECTING THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS
ONLY SLIPPING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OR MEETING DEWPOINTS.

AFTER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...SUNSHINE
AND 850MB TEMPS ABOUT +20C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S TO AROUND 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAIN
STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

12Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE
ELEVATED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A
700MB INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG ARE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AT 6Z. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
HRRR SUGGEST LIFR OR LOWER VIS AND CIGS WILL DEVELOP TOWARD 10Z AT
ALL SITES AS LIGHT FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES INCREASES LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. KROC MAY NOT GO AS LOW AS LIFR BUT IFR LIKELY.

ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 14-16Z THIS MORNING LEAVING
SUNNY VFR SKIES GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG IN PLACE AT LEAST EACH MORNING. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE
LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE
EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12
KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 010547
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
147 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION
THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WELL INTO THE 80S. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
805 PM UPDATE...
ONLY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA,
WHERE A BROKEN DECK CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY.
OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

4 PM UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY SOUTHWARD INTO NE PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES BTWN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA WITH LESSER CAPE/S NORTHWARD. SFC
ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS A WEAK FRNT THAT WAS ACRS THE SRN TIER OF NY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RIPPLE RIDING ACRS WRN PA/WRN NY
AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE E AND PRESS THIS WK BNDRY
FARTHER S AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A
LITTLE TSRA ESP IN NE PA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE SHEAR WAS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS.

AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS A
RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS ACRS NY AND
PA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG FORMATION.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...SEE JUST A FEW-SCT CUMULUS POPPING UP. OTHER
THAN THAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY FOR THE 1ST OF SEPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE GOING ON THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL GENERALLY IN CONTROL. EXPECTING THIS STAGNANT PATTERN TO
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MILD AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH A WARM DAY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 IN SOME
AREAS IS THAT THE HEAT INDEX COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S
FOR A WHILE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW AS THERE IS NO EVIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY...HEAT OF THE DAY
TYPE SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG.

AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO SET UP AS OF THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT KELM/KITH/KBGM TO SEE IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS
BELOW ALTERNATE MINS THIS MORNING. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE KELM
COULD SEE VIS GO BELOW AIPORT MINS NEAR SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FOR KAVP/KRME EXPECT MVFR VISBYS
AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY MORNING. KSYR
SHOULD STAY VFR. ALL SITES GO VFR BY 14Z.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN/PCF



000
FXUS61 KBGM 010547
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
147 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION
THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WELL INTO THE 80S. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
805 PM UPDATE...
ONLY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA,
WHERE A BROKEN DECK CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY.
OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

4 PM UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY SOUTHWARD INTO NE PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES BTWN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA WITH LESSER CAPE/S NORTHWARD. SFC
ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS A WEAK FRNT THAT WAS ACRS THE SRN TIER OF NY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RIPPLE RIDING ACRS WRN PA/WRN NY
AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE E AND PRESS THIS WK BNDRY
FARTHER S AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A
LITTLE TSRA ESP IN NE PA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE SHEAR WAS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS.

AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS A
RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS ACRS NY AND
PA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG FORMATION.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...SEE JUST A FEW-SCT CUMULUS POPPING UP. OTHER
THAN THAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY FOR THE 1ST OF SEPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE GOING ON THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL GENERALLY IN CONTROL. EXPECTING THIS STAGNANT PATTERN TO
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MILD AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH A WARM DAY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 IN SOME
AREAS IS THAT THE HEAT INDEX COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S
FOR A WHILE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW AS THERE IS NO EVIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY...HEAT OF THE DAY
TYPE SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG.

AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO SET UP AS OF THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT KELM/KITH/KBGM TO SEE IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS
BELOW ALTERNATE MINS THIS MORNING. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE KELM
COULD SEE VIS GO BELOW AIPORT MINS NEAR SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FOR KAVP/KRME EXPECT MVFR VISBYS
AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY MORNING. KSYR
SHOULD STAY VFR. ALL SITES GO VFR BY 14Z.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN/PCF



000
FXUS61 KBGM 010547
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
147 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION
THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WELL INTO THE 80S. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
805 PM UPDATE...
ONLY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA,
WHERE A BROKEN DECK CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY.
OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

4 PM UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY SOUTHWARD INTO NE PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES BTWN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA WITH LESSER CAPE/S NORTHWARD. SFC
ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS A WEAK FRNT THAT WAS ACRS THE SRN TIER OF NY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RIPPLE RIDING ACRS WRN PA/WRN NY
AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE E AND PRESS THIS WK BNDRY
FARTHER S AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A
LITTLE TSRA ESP IN NE PA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE SHEAR WAS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS.

AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS A
RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS ACRS NY AND
PA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG FORMATION.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...SEE JUST A FEW-SCT CUMULUS POPPING UP. OTHER
THAN THAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY FOR THE 1ST OF SEPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE GOING ON THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL GENERALLY IN CONTROL. EXPECTING THIS STAGNANT PATTERN TO
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MILD AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH A WARM DAY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 IN SOME
AREAS IS THAT THE HEAT INDEX COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S
FOR A WHILE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW AS THERE IS NO EVIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY...HEAT OF THE DAY
TYPE SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG.

AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO SET UP AS OF THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT KELM/KITH/KBGM TO SEE IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS
BELOW ALTERNATE MINS THIS MORNING. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE KELM
COULD SEE VIS GO BELOW AIPORT MINS NEAR SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FOR KAVP/KRME EXPECT MVFR VISBYS
AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY MORNING. KSYR
SHOULD STAY VFR. ALL SITES GO VFR BY 14Z.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN/PCF



000
FXUS61 KBGM 010547
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
147 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION
THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WELL INTO THE 80S. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
805 PM UPDATE...
ONLY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA,
WHERE A BROKEN DECK CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY.
OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

4 PM UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY SOUTHWARD INTO NE PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES BTWN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA WITH LESSER CAPE/S NORTHWARD. SFC
ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS A WEAK FRNT THAT WAS ACRS THE SRN TIER OF NY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RIPPLE RIDING ACRS WRN PA/WRN NY
AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE E AND PRESS THIS WK BNDRY
FARTHER S AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A
LITTLE TSRA ESP IN NE PA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE SHEAR WAS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS.

AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS A
RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS ACRS NY AND
PA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG FORMATION.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...SEE JUST A FEW-SCT CUMULUS POPPING UP. OTHER
THAN THAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY FOR THE 1ST OF SEPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE GOING ON THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL GENERALLY IN CONTROL. EXPECTING THIS STAGNANT PATTERN TO
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MILD AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH A WARM DAY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 IN SOME
AREAS IS THAT THE HEAT INDEX COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S
FOR A WHILE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW AS THERE IS NO EVIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY...HEAT OF THE DAY
TYPE SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG.

AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO SET UP AS OF THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT KELM/KITH/KBGM TO SEE IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS
BELOW ALTERNATE MINS THIS MORNING. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE KELM
COULD SEE VIS GO BELOW AIPORT MINS NEAR SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FOR KAVP/KRME EXPECT MVFR VISBYS
AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY MORNING. KSYR
SHOULD STAY VFR. ALL SITES GO VFR BY 14Z.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN/PCF



000
FXUS61 KBGM 010547
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
147 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION
THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WELL INTO THE 80S. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
805 PM UPDATE...
ONLY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA,
WHERE A BROKEN DECK CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY.
OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

4 PM UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY SOUTHWARD INTO NE PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES BTWN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA WITH LESSER CAPE/S NORTHWARD. SFC
ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS A WEAK FRNT THAT WAS ACRS THE SRN TIER OF NY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RIPPLE RIDING ACRS WRN PA/WRN NY
AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE E AND PRESS THIS WK BNDRY
FARTHER S AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A
LITTLE TSRA ESP IN NE PA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE SHEAR WAS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS.

AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS A
RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS ACRS NY AND
PA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG FORMATION.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...SEE JUST A FEW-SCT CUMULUS POPPING UP. OTHER
THAN THAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY FOR THE 1ST OF SEPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE GOING ON THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL GENERALLY IN CONTROL. EXPECTING THIS STAGNANT PATTERN TO
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MILD AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH A WARM DAY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 IN SOME
AREAS IS THAT THE HEAT INDEX COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S
FOR A WHILE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW AS THERE IS NO EVIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY...HEAT OF THE DAY
TYPE SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG.

AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO SET UP AS OF THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT KELM/KITH/KBGM TO SEE IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS
BELOW ALTERNATE MINS THIS MORNING. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE KELM
COULD SEE VIS GO BELOW AIPORT MINS NEAR SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FOR KAVP/KRME EXPECT MVFR VISBYS
AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY MORNING. KSYR
SHOULD STAY VFR. ALL SITES GO VFR BY 14Z.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 010547
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
147 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION
THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WELL INTO THE 80S. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
805 PM UPDATE...
ONLY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA,
WHERE A BROKEN DECK CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY.
OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

4 PM UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY SOUTHWARD INTO NE PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES BTWN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA WITH LESSER CAPE/S NORTHWARD. SFC
ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS A WEAK FRNT THAT WAS ACRS THE SRN TIER OF NY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RIPPLE RIDING ACRS WRN PA/WRN NY
AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE E AND PRESS THIS WK BNDRY
FARTHER S AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A
LITTLE TSRA ESP IN NE PA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE SHEAR WAS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS.

AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS A
RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS ACRS NY AND
PA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG FORMATION.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...SEE JUST A FEW-SCT CUMULUS POPPING UP. OTHER
THAN THAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY FOR THE 1ST OF SEPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE GOING ON THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL GENERALLY IN CONTROL. EXPECTING THIS STAGNANT PATTERN TO
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MILD AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH A WARM DAY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 IN SOME
AREAS IS THAT THE HEAT INDEX COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S
FOR A WHILE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW AS THERE IS NO EVIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY...HEAT OF THE DAY
TYPE SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG.

AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO SET UP AS OF THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT KELM/KITH/KBGM TO SEE IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS
BELOW ALTERNATE MINS THIS MORNING. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE KELM
COULD SEE VIS GO BELOW AIPORT MINS NEAR SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FOR KAVP/KRME EXPECT MVFR VISBYS
AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY MORNING. KSYR
SHOULD STAY VFR. ALL SITES GO VFR BY 14Z.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
FOG WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH 12-14Z. AFTER 14Z ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010523
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY
T/TD/SKY AND WINDS.

SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH S OF LONG ISLAND BY
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND ITS PASSAGE...AND
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL A FEW DEGREES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO
DROP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 90 ON
TUESDAY IN NYC.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
WED...FOLLOWED BY GLANCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
PHASING THESE ENERGIES WELL EAST OF THE NE US...WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE WED AND THU. A WEAK
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
WED...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR. STRONGER CANADIAN COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS
WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAG SOUTH. DAY TIME
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO HIGH KBDI VALUES
AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S TO AROUND 85.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND UNSEASONABLE WARMTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS SHIFT FROM W TO N/NW...BUT REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KT. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE REGION AND
THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT
ON THE OCEAN...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/NV
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/NV



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010523
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY
T/TD/SKY AND WINDS.

SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH S OF LONG ISLAND BY
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND ITS PASSAGE...AND
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL A FEW DEGREES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO
DROP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 90 ON
TUESDAY IN NYC.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
WED...FOLLOWED BY GLANCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
PHASING THESE ENERGIES WELL EAST OF THE NE US...WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE WED AND THU. A WEAK
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
WED...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR. STRONGER CANADIAN COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS
WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAG SOUTH. DAY TIME
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO HIGH KBDI VALUES
AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S TO AROUND 85.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND UNSEASONABLE WARMTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS SHIFT FROM W TO N/NW...BUT REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KT. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE REGION AND
THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT
ON THE OCEAN...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/NV
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010523
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY
T/TD/SKY AND WINDS.

SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH S OF LONG ISLAND BY
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND ITS PASSAGE...AND
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL A FEW DEGREES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO
DROP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 90 ON
TUESDAY IN NYC.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
WED...FOLLOWED BY GLANCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
PHASING THESE ENERGIES WELL EAST OF THE NE US...WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE WED AND THU. A WEAK
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
WED...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR. STRONGER CANADIAN COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS
WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAG SOUTH. DAY TIME
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO HIGH KBDI VALUES
AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S TO AROUND 85.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND UNSEASONABLE WARMTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS SHIFT FROM W TO N/NW...BUT REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KT. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE REGION AND
THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT
ON THE OCEAN...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/NV
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010523
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY
T/TD/SKY AND WINDS.

SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH S OF LONG ISLAND BY
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND ITS PASSAGE...AND
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL A FEW DEGREES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO
DROP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 90 ON
TUESDAY IN NYC.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
WED...FOLLOWED BY GLANCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
PHASING THESE ENERGIES WELL EAST OF THE NE US...WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE WED AND THU. A WEAK
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
WED...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR. STRONGER CANADIAN COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS
WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAG SOUTH. DAY TIME
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO HIGH KBDI VALUES
AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S TO AROUND 85.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND UNSEASONABLE WARMTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS SHIFT FROM W TO N/NW...BUT REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KT. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE REGION AND
THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT
ON THE OCEAN...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/NV
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/NV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010457
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1257 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010457
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1257 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010457
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1257 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010457
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1257 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010457
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1257 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KALY 010449
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1249 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE S/E OF THE REGION.

THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A BREEZE PERSISTING...PREVENTING
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO TREND CALM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SW VT
AND NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS PSBL WITH LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND
KPSF. KALB AND KPOU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. ANY FOG SHOULD
LIFT RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY SOME MVFR FOG
AGAIN AT KGFL AND KPSF TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 010449
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1249 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE S/E OF THE REGION.

THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A BREEZE PERSISTING...PREVENTING
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO TREND CALM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SW VT
AND NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS PSBL WITH LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND
KPSF. KALB AND KPOU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. ANY FOG SHOULD
LIFT RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY SOME MVFR FOG
AGAIN AT KGFL AND KPSF TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 010449
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1249 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE S/E OF THE REGION.

THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A BREEZE PERSISTING...PREVENTING
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO TREND CALM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SW VT
AND NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS PSBL WITH LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND
KPSF. KALB AND KPOU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. ANY FOG SHOULD
LIFT RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY SOME MVFR FOG
AGAIN AT KGFL AND KPSF TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 010449
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1249 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE S/E OF THE REGION.

THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A BREEZE PERSISTING...PREVENTING
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO TREND CALM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SW VT
AND NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE SOME MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS PSBL WITH LATE NIGHT FOG AT KGFL AND
KPSF. KALB AND KPOU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. ANY FOG SHOULD
LIFT RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY SOME MVFR FOG
AGAIN AT KGFL AND KPSF TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 010444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE S/E OF THE REGION.

THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A BREEZE PERSISTING...PREVENTING
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO TREND CALM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SW VT
AND NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 010444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE S/E OF THE REGION.

THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A BREEZE PERSISTING...PREVENTING
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO TREND CALM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SW VT
AND NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 010444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE S/E OF THE REGION.

THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A BREEZE PERSISTING...PREVENTING
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO TREND CALM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SW VT
AND NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 010444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE S/E OF THE REGION.

THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A BREEZE PERSISTING...PREVENTING
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO TREND CALM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SW VT
AND NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 010444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE S/E OF THE REGION.

THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A BREEZE PERSISTING...PREVENTING
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO TREND CALM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SW VT
AND NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 010444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE LOWER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM N TO S
TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE S/E OF THE REGION.

THUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A BREEZE PERSISTING...PREVENTING
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT WINDS TO TREND CALM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND
DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SW VT
AND NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010235
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1035 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY
T/TD/SKY AND WINDS.

SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH S OF LONG ISLAND BY
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND ITS PASSAGE...AND
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL A FEW DEGREES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO
DROP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 90 ON
TUESDAY IN NYC.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
WED...FOLLOWED BY GLANCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
PHASING THESE ENERGIES WELL EAST OF THE NE US...WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE WED AND THU. A WEAK
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
WED...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SETOFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR. STRONGER CANADIAN COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING
POTENTIAL OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAG SOUTH. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95
DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO HIGH KBDI VALUES
AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S TO AROUND 85.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND UNSEASONABLE WARMTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT.

VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF LATE TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS AT AROUND 10KT OR LESS THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS THEN FOLLOW LATE TONIGHT. A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS PROBABLY OCCURS BEFORE A SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH
LATE TUES MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE REGION AND
THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT
ON THE OCEAN...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010235
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1035 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY
T/TD/SKY AND WINDS.

SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH S OF LONG ISLAND BY
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND ITS PASSAGE...AND
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL A FEW DEGREES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO
DROP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 90 ON
TUESDAY IN NYC.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
WED...FOLLOWED BY GLANCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
PHASING THESE ENERGIES WELL EAST OF THE NE US...WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE WED AND THU. A WEAK
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
WED...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SETOFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR. STRONGER CANADIAN COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING
POTENTIAL OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAG SOUTH. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95
DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO HIGH KBDI VALUES
AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S TO AROUND 85.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND UNSEASONABLE WARMTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT.

VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF LATE TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS AT AROUND 10KT OR LESS THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS THEN FOLLOW LATE TONIGHT. A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS PROBABLY OCCURS BEFORE A SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH
LATE TUES MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE REGION AND
THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT
ON THE OCEAN...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KBUF 010233
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1033 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OF ALL OF THE DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. A THIN VEIL
OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE SMOKE HELD FAR ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SOME
COLORING TO ANOTHER BRIGHT WANING GIBBOUS MOON.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH DEWPOINTS...SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE PATCHY FOG THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...WITH FOG BEING
MOST PREVALENT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
BLACK RIVER VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
REFLECT THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

AFTER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF TUESDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE AND
850MB TEMPS ABOUT +20C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAIN
STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

12Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE
ELEVATED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A
700MB INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO RE- DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06-08Z
WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY. ANY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE
LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/WCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/WCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010233
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1033 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OF ALL OF THE DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. A THIN VEIL
OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE SMOKE HELD FAR ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SOME
COLORING TO ANOTHER BRIGHT WANING GIBBOUS MOON.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH DEWPOINTS...SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE PATCHY FOG THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...WITH FOG BEING
MOST PREVALENT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
BLACK RIVER VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
REFLECT THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

AFTER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF TUESDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE AND
850MB TEMPS ABOUT +20C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAIN
STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

12Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE
ELEVATED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A
700MB INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO RE- DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06-08Z
WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY. ANY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE
LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/WCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/WCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN



000
FXUS61 KALY 010232
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1032 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER THE AREA...AS STRONG RIDGING
STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AT 500 HPA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION.
A LINGERING PATCH OF CLOUDS IS MOVING TOWARDS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.

OTHERWISE...BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S AND LIGHT OR CALM WINDS IN PLACE...THIS WILL BE A GOOD SETUP
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG...ESP IN RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER PRONE
LOCATIONS. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS DAYBREAK...ESP
AROUND GLENS FALLS...PITTSFIELD...AND IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY OF
SRN VT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010232
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1032 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER THE AREA...AS STRONG RIDGING
STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AT 500 HPA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION.
A LINGERING PATCH OF CLOUDS IS MOVING TOWARDS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.

OTHERWISE...BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S AND LIGHT OR CALM WINDS IN PLACE...THIS WILL BE A GOOD SETUP
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG...ESP IN RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER PRONE
LOCATIONS. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS DAYBREAK...ESP
AROUND GLENS FALLS...PITTSFIELD...AND IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY OF
SRN VT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010232
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1032 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER THE AREA...AS STRONG RIDGING
STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AT 500 HPA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION.
A LINGERING PATCH OF CLOUDS IS MOVING TOWARDS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.

OTHERWISE...BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S AND LIGHT OR CALM WINDS IN PLACE...THIS WILL BE A GOOD SETUP
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG...ESP IN RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER PRONE
LOCATIONS. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS DAYBREAK...ESP
AROUND GLENS FALLS...PITTSFIELD...AND IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY OF
SRN VT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010232
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1032 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER THE AREA...AS STRONG RIDGING
STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AT 500 HPA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION.
A LINGERING PATCH OF CLOUDS IS MOVING TOWARDS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.

OTHERWISE...BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S AND LIGHT OR CALM WINDS IN PLACE...THIS WILL BE A GOOD SETUP
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG...ESP IN RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER PRONE
LOCATIONS. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS DAYBREAK...ESP
AROUND GLENS FALLS...PITTSFIELD...AND IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY OF
SRN VT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010232
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1032 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER THE AREA...AS STRONG RIDGING
STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AT 500 HPA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION.
A LINGERING PATCH OF CLOUDS IS MOVING TOWARDS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.

OTHERWISE...BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S AND LIGHT OR CALM WINDS IN PLACE...THIS WILL BE A GOOD SETUP
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG...ESP IN RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER PRONE
LOCATIONS. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS DAYBREAK...ESP
AROUND GLENS FALLS...PITTSFIELD...AND IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY OF
SRN VT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 010232
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1032 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER THE AREA...AS STRONG RIDGING
STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AT 500 HPA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION.
A LINGERING PATCH OF CLOUDS IS MOVING TOWARDS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.

OTHERWISE...BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...IT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S AND LIGHT OR CALM WINDS IN PLACE...THIS WILL BE A GOOD SETUP
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG...ESP IN RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER PRONE
LOCATIONS. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS DAYBREAK...ESP
AROUND GLENS FALLS...PITTSFIELD...AND IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY OF
SRN VT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010223
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1023 PM EDT MONDAY...QUIET EVENING ONGOING ACROSS THE
REGION WEATHERWISE AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A
FEW PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH PATCHY FOG IN
FAVORED LOCALES. SOME VIEWERS HAVE REPORTED A RATHER HAZY SUNSET
THIS EVENING, AND THIS IS DUE TO A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES STATES WITH ORIGINS FROM
THE NUMEROUS WESTERN U.S. FIRES. NOAA-MODELLED VERTICALLY
INTEGRATED SMOKE PRODUCT SHOWS THIS LAYER TO GRADUALLY MIX
OUT/DISSIPATE OVER AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN CREATING A
SLIGHT MILKY/HAZY APPEARANCE TO THE SKY AT TIMES. HAVE A GREAT
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010223
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1023 PM EDT MONDAY...QUIET EVENING ONGOING ACROSS THE
REGION WEATHERWISE AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A
FEW PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH PATCHY FOG IN
FAVORED LOCALES. SOME VIEWERS HAVE REPORTED A RATHER HAZY SUNSET
THIS EVENING, AND THIS IS DUE TO A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES STATES WITH ORIGINS FROM
THE NUMEROUS WESTERN U.S. FIRES. NOAA-MODELLED VERTICALLY
INTEGRATED SMOKE PRODUCT SHOWS THIS LAYER TO GRADUALLY MIX
OUT/DISSIPATE OVER AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN CREATING A
SLIGHT MILKY/HAZY APPEARANCE TO THE SKY AT TIMES. HAVE A GREAT
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010223
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1023 PM EDT MONDAY...QUIET EVENING ONGOING ACROSS THE
REGION WEATHERWISE AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A
FEW PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH PATCHY FOG IN
FAVORED LOCALES. SOME VIEWERS HAVE REPORTED A RATHER HAZY SUNSET
THIS EVENING, AND THIS IS DUE TO A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES STATES WITH ORIGINS FROM
THE NUMEROUS WESTERN U.S. FIRES. NOAA-MODELLED VERTICALLY
INTEGRATED SMOKE PRODUCT SHOWS THIS LAYER TO GRADUALLY MIX
OUT/DISSIPATE OVER AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN CREATING A
SLIGHT MILKY/HAZY APPEARANCE TO THE SKY AT TIMES. HAVE A GREAT
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010223
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1023 PM EDT MONDAY...QUIET EVENING ONGOING ACROSS THE
REGION WEATHERWISE AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A
FEW PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH PATCHY FOG IN
FAVORED LOCALES. SOME VIEWERS HAVE REPORTED A RATHER HAZY SUNSET
THIS EVENING, AND THIS IS DUE TO A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES STATES WITH ORIGINS FROM
THE NUMEROUS WESTERN U.S. FIRES. NOAA-MODELLED VERTICALLY
INTEGRATED SMOKE PRODUCT SHOWS THIS LAYER TO GRADUALLY MIX
OUT/DISSIPATE OVER AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN CREATING A
SLIGHT MILKY/HAZY APPEARANCE TO THE SKY AT TIMES. HAVE A GREAT
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBUF 010029
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
829 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OF ALL OF THE AFTERNOON DIURNAL CLOUD COVER. A
THIN VEIL OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE SMOKE HELD FAR ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
SOME COLORING TO ANOTHER BRIGHT WANING GIBBOUS MOON.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH DEWPOINTS...SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE PATCHY FOG THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...WITH FOG BEING
MOST PREVALENT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
BLACK RIVER VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
REFLECT THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

AFTER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF TUESDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE AND
850MB TEMPS ABOUT +20C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

12Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE
ELEVATED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A
700MB INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO RE- DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06-08Z
WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY. ANY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE
LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/WCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010029
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
829 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OF ALL OF THE AFTERNOON DIURNAL CLOUD COVER. A
THIN VEIL OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE SMOKE HELD FAR ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
SOME COLORING TO ANOTHER BRIGHT WANING GIBBOUS MOON.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH DEWPOINTS...SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE PATCHY FOG THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...WITH FOG BEING
MOST PREVALENT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
BLACK RIVER VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
REFLECT THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

AFTER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF TUESDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE AND
850MB TEMPS ABOUT +20C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

12Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE
ELEVATED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A
700MB INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO RE- DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06-08Z
WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY. ANY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE
LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/WCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010029
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
829 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OF ALL OF THE AFTERNOON DIURNAL CLOUD COVER. A
THIN VEIL OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE SMOKE HELD FAR ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
SOME COLORING TO ANOTHER BRIGHT WANING GIBBOUS MOON.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH DEWPOINTS...SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE PATCHY FOG THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...WITH FOG BEING
MOST PREVALENT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
BLACK RIVER VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
REFLECT THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

AFTER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF TUESDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE AND
850MB TEMPS ABOUT +20C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

12Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE
ELEVATED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A
700MB INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO RE- DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06-08Z
WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY. ANY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE
LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/WCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010029
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
829 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OF ALL OF THE AFTERNOON DIURNAL CLOUD COVER. A
THIN VEIL OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE SMOKE HELD FAR ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
SOME COLORING TO ANOTHER BRIGHT WANING GIBBOUS MOON.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH DEWPOINTS...SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE PATCHY FOG THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...WITH FOG BEING
MOST PREVALENT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
BLACK RIVER VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
REFLECT THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

AFTER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF TUESDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE AND
850MB TEMPS ABOUT +20C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

12Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE
ELEVATED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A
700MB INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO RE- DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06-08Z
WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY. ANY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE
LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/WCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KBGM 010004
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
804 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION
THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WELL INTO THE 80S. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
805 PM UPDATE...
ONLY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA,
WHERE A BROKEN DECK CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY.
OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

4 PM UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY SOUTHWARD INTO NE PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES BTWN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA WITH LESSER CAPE/S NORTHWARD. SFC
ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS A WEAK FRNT THAT WAS ACRS THE SRN TIER OF NY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RIPPLE RIDING ACRS WRN PA/WRN NY
AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE E AND PRESS THIS WK BNDRY
FARTHER S AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A
LITTLE TSRA ESP IN NE PA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE SHEAR WAS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS.

AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS A
RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS ACRS NY AND
PA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG FORMATION.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...SEE JUST A FEW-SCT CUMULUS POPPING UP. OTHER
THAN THAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY FOR THE 1ST OF SEPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE GOING ON THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL GENERALLY IN CONTROL. EXPECTING THIS STAGNANT PATTERN TO
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MILD AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH A WARM DAY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 IN SOME
AREAS IS THAT THE HEAT INDEX COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S
FOR A WHILE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW AS THERE IS NO EVIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY...HEAT OF THE DAY
TYPE SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH MAIN CONCERNS CENTERED
AROUND VALLEY FOG FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

AN AREA OF CLOUDS MAY DRIFT ACROSS KRME IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WITH BKN CIGS AROUND 4KFT. ELSEWHERE DENSE VALLEY FOG BEGINS
AROUND 06Z AT KELM, WITH NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 08Z AND ABOUT 13Z. ELSEWHERE THE FOG MAY BE THICK ENOUGH
THAT IT WILL PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS OR EVEN A BRIEF (LESS THAN AN
HOUR) PERIOD OF IFR AT KITH/KBGM/KAVP. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE NEAR
DAYBREAK. VFR AFTER 13Z TUESDAY.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN




000
FXUS61 KBGM 010004
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
804 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION
THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WELL INTO THE 80S. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
805 PM UPDATE...
ONLY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN FA,
WHERE A BROKEN DECK CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY.
OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

4 PM UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY SOUTHWARD INTO NE PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES BTWN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA WITH LESSER CAPE/S NORTHWARD. SFC
ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS A WEAK FRNT THAT WAS ACRS THE SRN TIER OF NY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RIPPLE RIDING ACRS WRN PA/WRN NY
AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE E AND PRESS THIS WK BNDRY
FARTHER S AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A
LITTLE TSRA ESP IN NE PA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE SHEAR WAS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS.

AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS A
RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS ACRS NY AND
PA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG FORMATION.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...SEE JUST A FEW-SCT CUMULUS POPPING UP. OTHER
THAN THAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY FOR THE 1ST OF SEPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE GOING ON THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL GENERALLY IN CONTROL. EXPECTING THIS STAGNANT PATTERN TO
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MILD AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH A WARM DAY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 IN SOME
AREAS IS THAT THE HEAT INDEX COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S
FOR A WHILE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW AS THERE IS NO EVIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY...HEAT OF THE DAY
TYPE SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH MAIN CONCERNS CENTERED
AROUND VALLEY FOG FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

AN AREA OF CLOUDS MAY DRIFT ACROSS KRME IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WITH BKN CIGS AROUND 4KFT. ELSEWHERE DENSE VALLEY FOG BEGINS
AROUND 06Z AT KELM, WITH NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 08Z AND ABOUT 13Z. ELSEWHERE THE FOG MAY BE THICK ENOUGH
THAT IT WILL PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS OR EVEN A BRIEF (LESS THAN AN
HOUR) PERIOD OF IFR AT KITH/KBGM/KAVP. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE NEAR
DAYBREAK. VFR AFTER 13Z TUESDAY.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN



000
FXUS61 KOKX 312346
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
746 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY
T/TD/SKY AND WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT
MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A DRY
FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...GENERALLY FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO
DROP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
NYC.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 90 ON
TUESDAY IN NYC.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
WED...FOLLOWED BY GLANCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
PHASING THESE ENERGIES WELL EAST OF THE NE US...WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE WED AND THU. A WEAK
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
WED...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SETOFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR. STRONGER CANADIAN COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING
POTENTIAL OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAG SOUTH. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95
DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO HIGH KBDI VALUES
AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S TO AROUND 85.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND UNSEASONABLE WARMTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT.

VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF LATE TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS AT 10KT OR LESS THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
THEN FOLLOW LATE TONIGHT. A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS PROBABLY OCCURS BEFORE A SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH LATE TUES
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE REGION AND
THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT
ON THE OCEAN...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KOKX 312346
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
746 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY
T/TD/SKY AND WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT
MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A DRY
FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...GENERALLY FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO
DROP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
NYC.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 90 ON
TUESDAY IN NYC.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
WED...FOLLOWED BY GLANCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
PHASING THESE ENERGIES WELL EAST OF THE NE US...WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE WED AND THU. A WEAK
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
WED...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SETOFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR. STRONGER CANADIAN COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING
POTENTIAL OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAG SOUTH. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95
DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO HIGH KBDI VALUES
AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S TO AROUND 85.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND UNSEASONABLE WARMTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT.

VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF LATE TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS AT 10KT OR LESS THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
THEN FOLLOW LATE TONIGHT. A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS PROBABLY OCCURS BEFORE A SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH LATE TUES
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE REGION AND
THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT
ON THE OCEAN...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBGM 312342
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
742 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION
THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WELL INTO THE 80S. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY SOUTHWARD INTO NE PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES BTWN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA WITH LESSER CAPE/S NORTHWARD. SFC
ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS A WEAK FRNT THAT WAS ACRS THE SRN TIER OF NY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RIPPLE RIDING ACRS WRN PA/WRN NY
AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE E AND PRESS THIS WK BNDRY
FARTHER S AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A
LITTLE TSRA ESP IN NE PA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE SHEAR WAS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS.

AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS A
RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS ACRS NY AND
PA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG FORMATION.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...SEE JUST A FEW-SCT CUMULUS POPPING UP. OTHER
THAN THAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY FOR THE 1ST OF SEPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE GOING ON THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL GENERALLY IN CONTROL. EXPECTING THIS STAGNANT PATTERN TO
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MILD AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH A WARM DAY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 IN SOME
AREAS IS THAT THE HEAT INDEX COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S
FOR A WHILE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW AS THERE IS NO EVIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY...HEAT OF THE DAY
TYPE SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH MAIN CONCERNS CENTERED
AROUND VALLEY FOG FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

AN AREA OF CLOUDS MAY DRIFT ACROSS KRME IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WITH BKN CIGS AROUND 4KFT. ELSEWHERE DENSE VALLEY FOG BEGINS
AROUND 06Z AT KELM, WITH NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 08Z AND ABOUT 13Z. ELSEWHERE THE FOG MAY BE THICK ENOUGH
THAT IT WILL PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS OR EVEN A BRIEF (LESS THAN AN
HOUR) PERIOD OF IFR AT KITH/KBGM/KAVP. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE NEAR
DAYBREAK. VFR AFTER 13Z TUESDAY.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN




000
FXUS61 KBGM 312342
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
742 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION
THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WELL INTO THE 80S. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY SOUTHWARD INTO NE PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES BTWN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA WITH LESSER CAPE/S NORTHWARD. SFC
ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS A WEAK FRNT THAT WAS ACRS THE SRN TIER OF NY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RIPPLE RIDING ACRS WRN PA/WRN NY
AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE E AND PRESS THIS WK BNDRY
FARTHER S AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A
LITTLE TSRA ESP IN NE PA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE SHEAR WAS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS.

AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS A
RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS ACRS NY AND
PA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG FORMATION.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...SEE JUST A FEW-SCT CUMULUS POPPING UP. OTHER
THAN THAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY FOR THE 1ST OF SEPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE GOING ON THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL GENERALLY IN CONTROL. EXPECTING THIS STAGNANT PATTERN TO
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MILD AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH A WARM DAY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 IN SOME
AREAS IS THAT THE HEAT INDEX COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S
FOR A WHILE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW AS THERE IS NO EVIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY...HEAT OF THE DAY
TYPE SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH MAIN CONCERNS CENTERED
AROUND VALLEY FOG FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

AN AREA OF CLOUDS MAY DRIFT ACROSS KRME IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WITH BKN CIGS AROUND 4KFT. ELSEWHERE DENSE VALLEY FOG BEGINS
AROUND 06Z AT KELM, WITH NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 08Z AND ABOUT 13Z. ELSEWHERE THE FOG MAY BE THICK ENOUGH
THAT IT WILL PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS OR EVEN A BRIEF (LESS THAN AN
HOUR) PERIOD OF IFR AT KITH/KBGM/KAVP. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE NEAR
DAYBREAK. VFR AFTER 13Z TUESDAY.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN



000
FXUS61 KBTV 312340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ONLY NOISE-LEVEL TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS AND FOG COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WERE MADE.
OTHERWISE STILL LOOKING AT SKIES TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR AS LOW
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 307 PM EDT MONDAY...
AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...THE PREVAILING NW FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WILL PUSH A
WEAK FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH SEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. PER RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...FRONT WILL GENERALLY MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY...WITH JUST A BAND OF CLOUDS THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELD WILL BE STEADILY RISING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...AND
ANY CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IS QUITE SHALLOW.
CONVERGENCE IS ALSO LIMITED BY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AROUND
NOON TODAY...WHICH LEAD TO VEERING WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. ALL IN ALL...LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE
WITH THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW
EARLY GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT WITH PBL
STABILIZATION. IT APPEARS DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUFFICIENT
CLEARING TOWARD MIDNIGHT WILL STILL PERMIT PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN
THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE FAVORED VALLEYS
EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT LOCALLY IN THE MID 50S
ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 312340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ONLY NOISE-LEVEL TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS AND FOG COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WERE MADE.
OTHERWISE STILL LOOKING AT SKIES TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR AS LOW
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 307 PM EDT MONDAY...
AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...THE PREVAILING NW FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WILL PUSH A
WEAK FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH SEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. PER RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...FRONT WILL GENERALLY MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY...WITH JUST A BAND OF CLOUDS THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELD WILL BE STEADILY RISING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...AND
ANY CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IS QUITE SHALLOW.
CONVERGENCE IS ALSO LIMITED BY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AROUND
NOON TODAY...WHICH LEAD TO VEERING WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. ALL IN ALL...LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE
WITH THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW
EARLY GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT WITH PBL
STABILIZATION. IT APPEARS DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUFFICIENT
CLEARING TOWARD MIDNIGHT WILL STILL PERMIT PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN
THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE FAVORED VALLEYS
EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT LOCALLY IN THE MID 50S
ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KALY 312338
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
738 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 738 PM EDT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER THE AREA...AS STRONG RIDGING
STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AT 500 HPA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MOST CLOUDS HAVE
CLEARED OUT OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME PATCHES OF
STRATOCU OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...BUT EVEN THESE LOOK TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. AS A
RESULT...IT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL FOG...ESP IN RIVER VALLEYS AND
OTHER PRONE LOCATIONS. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...ESP AROUND GLENS FALLS...PITTSFIELD...AND IN THE CT
RIVER VALLEY OF SRN VT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 312338
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
738 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 738 PM EDT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER THE AREA...AS STRONG RIDGING
STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AT 500 HPA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MOST CLOUDS HAVE
CLEARED OUT OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME PATCHES OF
STRATOCU OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...BUT EVEN THESE LOOK TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. AS A
RESULT...IT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL FOG...ESP IN RIVER VALLEYS AND
OTHER PRONE LOCATIONS. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...ESP AROUND GLENS FALLS...PITTSFIELD...AND IN THE CT
RIVER VALLEY OF SRN VT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 312330
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
730 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ONLY NOISE-LEVEL TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS AND FOG COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WERE MADE.
OTHERWISE STILL LOOKING AT SKIES TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR AS LOW
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 307 PM EDT MONDAY...
AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...THE PREVAILING NW FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WILL PUSH A
WEAK FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH SEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. PER RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...FRONT WILL GENERALLY MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY...WITH JUST A BAND OF CLOUDS THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELD WILL BE STEADILY RISING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...AND
ANY CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IS QUITE SHALLOW.
CONVERGENCE IS ALSO LIMITED BY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AROUND
NOON TODAY...WHICH LEAD TO VEERING WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. ALL IN ALL...LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE
WITH THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW
EARLY GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT WITH PBL
STABILIZATION. IT APPEARS DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUFFICIENT
CLEARING TOWARD MIDNIGHT WILL STILL PERMIT PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN
THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE FAVORED VALLEYS
EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT LOCALLY IN THE MID 50S
ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...BKN TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FINALLY
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT ALL
SITES. GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR
00Z. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AT KSLK/KMPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME MVFR BR AT
BTV AFTER 06Z. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 312330
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
730 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ONLY NOISE-LEVEL TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS AND FOG COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WERE MADE.
OTHERWISE STILL LOOKING AT SKIES TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR AS LOW
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 307 PM EDT MONDAY...
AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...THE PREVAILING NW FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WILL PUSH A
WEAK FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH SEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. PER RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...FRONT WILL GENERALLY MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY...WITH JUST A BAND OF CLOUDS THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELD WILL BE STEADILY RISING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...AND
ANY CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IS QUITE SHALLOW.
CONVERGENCE IS ALSO LIMITED BY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AROUND
NOON TODAY...WHICH LEAD TO VEERING WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. ALL IN ALL...LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE
WITH THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW
EARLY GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT WITH PBL
STABILIZATION. IT APPEARS DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUFFICIENT
CLEARING TOWARD MIDNIGHT WILL STILL PERMIT PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN
THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE FAVORED VALLEYS
EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT LOCALLY IN THE MID 50S
ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...BKN TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FINALLY
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT ALL
SITES. GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR
00Z. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AT KSLK/KMPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME MVFR BR AT
BTV AFTER 06Z. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KALY 312035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HEIGHTS WILL RISE TONIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. CONDITIONS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF RADIATIONAL  FOG ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK TONIGHT.  THE
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHEAST OF NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE MAINLY PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH MVFR CUMULUS /AROUND 3 KFT AGL/ NEAR KPSF.  SOME SCT
CUMULUS CONTINUE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.  ALSO...SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES NEAR KPOU. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAVE DEVELOPED
NEAR KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED UNTIL 20Z.  BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE A MID LEVEL
TROUGH.  THE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 8-12 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 18 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT BY SUNSET...THEN CALM AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST FORMING. THE BEST CHC FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF BTWN
06Z-13Z. KALB/KPOU MAY BE A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING WITH A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WAS NOT CONFIDENT FOR LONG DURATION IFR VSBYS/CIGS...SO WENT WITH
MVFR VSBYS AT 3SM FOR NOW BTWN 08-12Z AT THOSE TWO SITES.  THE
POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD DISSIPATE AT 12-
14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AFTER SUNRISE AT 5 KTS OR
LESS...HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 312035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HEIGHTS WILL RISE TONIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. CONDITIONS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF RADIATIONAL  FOG ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK TONIGHT.  THE
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHEAST OF NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE MAINLY PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH MVFR CUMULUS /AROUND 3 KFT AGL/ NEAR KPSF.  SOME SCT
CUMULUS CONTINUE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.  ALSO...SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES NEAR KPOU. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAVE DEVELOPED
NEAR KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED UNTIL 20Z.  BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE A MID LEVEL
TROUGH.  THE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 8-12 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 18 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT BY SUNSET...THEN CALM AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST FORMING. THE BEST CHC FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF BTWN
06Z-13Z. KALB/KPOU MAY BE A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING WITH A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WAS NOT CONFIDENT FOR LONG DURATION IFR VSBYS/CIGS...SO WENT WITH
MVFR VSBYS AT 3SM FOR NOW BTWN 08-12Z AT THOSE TWO SITES.  THE
POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD DISSIPATE AT 12-
14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AFTER SUNRISE AT 5 KTS OR
LESS...HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311940
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE PREVAILING NW FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH SEWD ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING. PER RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...FRONT WILL
GENERALLY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY...WITH JUST A BAND OF
CLOUDS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD WILL BE STEADILY RISING ACROSS OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT...AND ANY CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
QUITE SHALLOW. CONVERGENCE IS ALSO LIMITED BY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
PASSAGE AROUND NOON TODAY...WHICH LEAD TO VEERING WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. ALL IN ALL...LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CHANGE WITH THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW EARLY GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
WITH PBL STABILIZATION. IT APPEARS DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SUFFICIENT CLEARING TOWARD MIDNIGHT WILL STILL PERMIT PATCHY FOG
FORMATION IN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE
FAVORED VALLEYS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT LOCALLY
IN THE MID 50S ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS
WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...BKN TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FINALLY
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT ALL
SITES. GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR
00Z. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AT KSLK/KMPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME MVFR BR AT
BTV AFTER 06Z. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311940
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE PREVAILING NW FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH SEWD ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING. PER RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...FRONT WILL
GENERALLY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY...WITH JUST A BAND OF
CLOUDS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD WILL BE STEADILY RISING ACROSS OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT...AND ANY CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
QUITE SHALLOW. CONVERGENCE IS ALSO LIMITED BY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
PASSAGE AROUND NOON TODAY...WHICH LEAD TO VEERING WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. ALL IN ALL...LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CHANGE WITH THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW EARLY GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
WITH PBL STABILIZATION. IT APPEARS DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SUFFICIENT CLEARING TOWARD MIDNIGHT WILL STILL PERMIT PATCHY FOG
FORMATION IN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE
FAVORED VALLEYS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT LOCALLY
IN THE MID 50S ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS
WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...BKN TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FINALLY
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT ALL
SITES. GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR
00Z. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AT KSLK/KMPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME MVFR BR AT
BTV AFTER 06Z. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KOKX 311939
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
339 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT
MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A DRY
FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...GENERALLY FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO
DROP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
NYC.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 90 ON
TUESDAY IN NYC.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
WED...FOLLOWED BY GLANCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
PHASING THESE ENERGIES WELL EAST OF THE NE US...WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE WED AND THU. A WEAK
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
WED...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SETOFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR. STRONGER CANADIAN COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING
POTENTIAL OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAG SOUTH. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95
DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO HIGH KBDI VALUES
AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S TO AROUND 85.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND UNSEASONABLE WARMTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH 00Z. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS 06Z TO 11Z...THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AS A
WARM FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT KSWF LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WIND WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST...AROUND 10 KT. AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING THE WIND FORECAST
BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE
SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WIND COULD EVEN BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TUESDAY BY MIDDAY.


   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THE SEA BREEZE MOVED THROUGH AROUND 19Z WITH
THE WIND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...AROUND 210...AND MAY GO AROUND TO TRUE
SEA BREEZE OF 180 LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TERMINAL. WILL BE 22Z TO 23Z IF THE SEA BREEZE DOES MOVE
THROUGH. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND MAY SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH WITH THE
SEA BREEZE APPROACH. POSSIBLE THE SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH BY 22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY 20Z WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST...AROUND 210. AN OCCASIONAL
GUST UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. WIND MAY BECOME TRUE SEA BREEZE DIRECTION
190 LATE THIS AFTERNOON.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
LIKELY.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE REGION AND
THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT
ON THE OCEAN...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/NV
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/NV



000
FXUS61 KOKX 311939
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
339 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT
MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A DRY
FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...GENERALLY FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO
DROP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
NYC.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 90 ON
TUESDAY IN NYC.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
WED...FOLLOWED BY GLANCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
PHASING THESE ENERGIES WELL EAST OF THE NE US...WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE WED AND THU. A WEAK
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
WED...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SETOFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR. STRONGER CANADIAN COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING
POTENTIAL OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAG SOUTH. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95
DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO HIGH KBDI VALUES
AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S TO AROUND 85.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND UNSEASONABLE WARMTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH 00Z. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS 06Z TO 11Z...THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AS A
WARM FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT KSWF LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WIND WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST...AROUND 10 KT. AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING THE WIND FORECAST
BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE
SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WIND COULD EVEN BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TUESDAY BY MIDDAY.


   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THE SEA BREEZE MOVED THROUGH AROUND 19Z WITH
THE WIND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...AROUND 210...AND MAY GO AROUND TO TRUE
SEA BREEZE OF 180 LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TERMINAL. WILL BE 22Z TO 23Z IF THE SEA BREEZE DOES MOVE
THROUGH. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND MAY SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH WITH THE
SEA BREEZE APPROACH. POSSIBLE THE SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH BY 22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY 20Z WITH
THE WIND SHIFTING TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST...AROUND 210. AN OCCASIONAL
GUST UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. WIND MAY BECOME TRUE SEA BREEZE DIRECTION
190 LATE THIS AFTERNOON.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
LIKELY.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE REGION AND
THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT
ON THE OCEAN...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/NV
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/NV




000
FXUS61 KBUF 311926
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
326 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. SCATTERED CLOUDS AWAY FROM THE
LAKE BREEZES THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. 850MB FLOW SHOULD RELAX AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY OVERHEAD AND THIS SHOULD BETTER
FACILITATE DECOUPLING ACROSS THE AREA. IN TURN THE RESULTANT LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH DEWPOINTS...SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE PATCHY FOG THAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING WITH FOG
BEING MOST ACUTE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AS WELL
AS THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL REFLECT THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

AFTER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF TUESDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE AND
850MB TEMPS ABOUT +20C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

12Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE
ELEVATED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A
700MB INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO RE- DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER
06-08Z WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY. ANY
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE
LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN



000
FXUS61 KBUF 311926
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
326 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. SCATTERED CLOUDS AWAY FROM THE
LAKE BREEZES THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. 850MB FLOW SHOULD RELAX AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY OVERHEAD AND THIS SHOULD BETTER
FACILITATE DECOUPLING ACROSS THE AREA. IN TURN THE RESULTANT LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH DEWPOINTS...SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE PATCHY FOG THAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING WITH FOG
BEING MOST ACUTE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AS WELL
AS THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL REFLECT THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

AFTER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF TUESDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE AND
850MB TEMPS ABOUT +20C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

12Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE
ELEVATED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A
700MB INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO RE- DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER
06-08Z WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY. ANY
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE
LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 311926
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
326 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. SCATTERED CLOUDS AWAY FROM THE
LAKE BREEZES THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. 850MB FLOW SHOULD RELAX AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY OVERHEAD AND THIS SHOULD BETTER
FACILITATE DECOUPLING ACROSS THE AREA. IN TURN THE RESULTANT LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH DEWPOINTS...SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE PATCHY FOG THAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING WITH FOG
BEING MOST ACUTE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AS WELL
AS THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL REFLECT THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

AFTER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF TUESDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE AND
850MB TEMPS ABOUT +20C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

12Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE
ELEVATED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A
700MB INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO RE- DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER
06-08Z WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY. ANY
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE
LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN



000
FXUS61 KBGM 311852
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
252 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION
THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WELL INTO THE 80S. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY SOUTHWARD INTO NE PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES BTWN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA WITH LESSER CAPE/S NORTHWARD. SFC
ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS A WEAK FRNT THAT WAS ACRS THE SRN TIER OF NY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RIPPLE RIDING ACRS WRN PA/WRN NY
AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE E AND PRESS THIS WK BNDRY
FARTHER S AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A
LITTLE TSRA ESP IN NE PA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE SHEAR WAS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS.

AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS A
RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS ACRS NY AND
PA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG FORMATION.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...SEE JUST A FEW-SCT CUMULUS POPPING UP. OTHER
THAN THAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY FOR THE 1ST OF SEPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE GOING ON THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL GENERALLY IN CONTROL. EXPECTING THIS STAGNANT PATTERN TO
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MILD AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH A WARM DAY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 IN SOME
AREAS IS THAT THE HEAT INDEX COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S
FOR A WHILE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW AS THERE IS NO EVIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY...HEAT OF THE DAY
TYPE SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR CIG WILL LINGER AT KRME TIL ABT 19Z. THERE
WILL BE ISLD-SCT TSRA AROUND IN SRN TIER OF NY/NE PA BUT DIDNT PUT
INTO ANY TAFS SINCE PROBABILITIES WILL BE LESS THAN 30 PCT THAT A
STORM WILL AFFECT AN AIRPORT.

THEN AFTER SUNSET SKIES WILL CLEAR...VALLEY FOG WILL FORM AND
WILL GO WITH THE TYPICAL VLIFR IN FG/CIG AT KELM MAINLY FROM
8-1330Z AS PER CLIMO. I DO HAVE SOME PATCHY IFR AT KBGM 10-12Z AS
FOG LIFTS OUT OF THE VALLEYS. ALSO HAVE MVFR BR AT KAVP AND KITH
BTWN 9 AND 15Z. THIS CUD EVEN BE SOME HZ AS WELL.

W TO NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KTS. TONIGHT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT WINDS TUE AM.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DJN



000
FXUS61 KBGM 311852
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
252 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION
THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WELL INTO THE 80S. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY SOUTHWARD INTO NE PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES BTWN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA WITH LESSER CAPE/S NORTHWARD. SFC
ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS A WEAK FRNT THAT WAS ACRS THE SRN TIER OF NY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RIPPLE RIDING ACRS WRN PA/WRN NY
AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE E AND PRESS THIS WK BNDRY
FARTHER S AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A
LITTLE TSRA ESP IN NE PA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE SHEAR WAS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS.

AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS A
RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS ACRS NY AND
PA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG FORMATION.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...SEE JUST A FEW-SCT CUMULUS POPPING UP. OTHER
THAN THAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY FOR THE 1ST OF SEPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE GOING ON THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL GENERALLY IN CONTROL. EXPECTING THIS STAGNANT PATTERN TO
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MILD AND MUGGY NIGHTS WITH A WARM DAY
WEDNESDAY. ONLY CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 IN SOME
AREAS IS THAT THE HEAT INDEX COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S
FOR A WHILE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW AS THERE IS NO EVIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...BUT CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRAY...HEAT OF THE DAY
TYPE SHOWER OR STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR CIG WILL LINGER AT KRME TIL ABT 19Z. THERE
WILL BE ISLD-SCT TSRA AROUND IN SRN TIER OF NY/NE PA BUT DIDNT PUT
INTO ANY TAFS SINCE PROBABILITIES WILL BE LESS THAN 30 PCT THAT A
STORM WILL AFFECT AN AIRPORT.

THEN AFTER SUNSET SKIES WILL CLEAR...VALLEY FOG WILL FORM AND
WILL GO WITH THE TYPICAL VLIFR IN FG/CIG AT KELM MAINLY FROM
8-1330Z AS PER CLIMO. I DO HAVE SOME PATCHY IFR AT KBGM 10-12Z AS
FOG LIFTS OUT OF THE VALLEYS. ALSO HAVE MVFR BR AT KAVP AND KITH
BTWN 9 AND 15Z. THIS CUD EVEN BE SOME HZ AS WELL.

W TO NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KTS. TONIGHT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT WINDS TUE AM.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DJN




000
FXUS61 KALY 311753
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
QUEBEC. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...SIMILAR AREA TO YESTERDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR-3KM IS OVERDONE
WITH ACTIVITY SO FAR BUT DOES SHOW IT DIMINISHED BY 22Z.

A WARM/HOT DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S MAKING FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON IN SOME AREAS...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH AND A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. GUSTS REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK TONIGHT.  THE
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHEAST OF NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE MAINLY PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH MVFR CUMULUS /AROUND 3 KFT AGL/ NEAR KPSF.  SOME SCT
CUMULUS CONTINUE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.  ALSO...SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES NEAR KPOU. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAVE DEVELOPED
NEAR KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED UNTIL 20Z.  BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE A MID LEVEL
TROUGH.  THE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 8-12 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 18 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT BY SUNSET...THEN CALM AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST FORMING. THE BEST CHC FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF BTWN
06Z-13Z. KALB/KPOU MAY BE A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING WITH A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WAS NOT CONFIDENT FOR LONG DURATION IFR VSBYS/CIGS...SO WENT WITH
MVFR VSBYS AT 3SM FOR NOW BTWN 08-12Z AT THOSE TWO SITES.  THE
POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD DISSIPATE AT 12-
14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AFTER SUNRISE AT 5 KTS OR
LESS...HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
153 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT MONDAY...SFC WINDS ARE SHIFTING INTO THE WNW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW 10-15 MPH...WITH
GUSTS 20-25 MPH THRU MID-AFTN. A WEAK/DRY FRONTAL BNDRY FURTHER
NORTH...ACROSS SRN QUEBEC...WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A BAND OF CLOUD COVER...BUT
OTHERWISE THE FROPA SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
MOST OTHER AREAS. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS...TEMPERATURES...AND POPS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...BKN TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FINALLY
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT ALL
SITES. GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR
00Z. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AT KSLK/KMPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME MVFR BR AT
BTV AFTER 06Z. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KALY 311753
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
QUEBEC. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...SIMILAR AREA TO YESTERDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR-3KM IS OVERDONE
WITH ACTIVITY SO FAR BUT DOES SHOW IT DIMINISHED BY 22Z.

A WARM/HOT DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S MAKING FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON IN SOME AREAS...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH AND A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. GUSTS REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK TONIGHT.  THE
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHEAST OF NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE MAINLY PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH MVFR CUMULUS /AROUND 3 KFT AGL/ NEAR KPSF.  SOME SCT
CUMULUS CONTINUE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.  ALSO...SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES NEAR KPOU. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAVE DEVELOPED
NEAR KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED UNTIL 20Z.  BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE A MID LEVEL
TROUGH.  THE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 8-12 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 18 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT BY SUNSET...THEN CALM AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST FORMING. THE BEST CHC FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF BTWN
06Z-13Z. KALB/KPOU MAY BE A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING WITH A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WAS NOT CONFIDENT FOR LONG DURATION IFR VSBYS/CIGS...SO WENT WITH
MVFR VSBYS AT 3SM FOR NOW BTWN 08-12Z AT THOSE TWO SITES.  THE
POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD DISSIPATE AT 12-
14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AFTER SUNRISE AT 5 KTS OR
LESS...HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 311753
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
QUEBEC. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...SIMILAR AREA TO YESTERDAY. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR-3KM IS OVERDONE
WITH ACTIVITY SO FAR BUT DOES SHOW IT DIMINISHED BY 22Z.

A WARM/HOT DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S MAKING FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON IN SOME AREAS...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH AND A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. GUSTS REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK TONIGHT.  THE
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHEAST OF NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE MAINLY PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH MVFR CUMULUS /AROUND 3 KFT AGL/ NEAR KPSF.  SOME SCT
CUMULUS CONTINUE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.  ALSO...SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES NEAR KPOU. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAVE DEVELOPED
NEAR KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED UNTIL 20Z.  BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE A MID LEVEL
TROUGH.  THE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 8-12 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 18 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT BY SUNSET...THEN CALM AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST FORMING. THE BEST CHC FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF BTWN
06Z-13Z. KALB/KPOU MAY BE A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING WITH A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WAS NOT CONFIDENT FOR LONG DURATION IFR VSBYS/CIGS...SO WENT WITH
MVFR VSBYS AT 3SM FOR NOW BTWN 08-12Z AT THOSE TWO SITES.  THE
POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KGFL/KPSF SHOULD DISSIPATE AT 12-
14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AFTER SUNRISE AT 5 KTS OR
LESS...HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
153 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT MONDAY...SFC WINDS ARE SHIFTING INTO THE WNW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW 10-15 MPH...WITH
GUSTS 20-25 MPH THRU MID-AFTN. A WEAK/DRY FRONTAL BNDRY FURTHER
NORTH...ACROSS SRN QUEBEC...WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A BAND OF CLOUD COVER...BUT
OTHERWISE THE FROPA SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
MOST OTHER AREAS. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS...TEMPERATURES...AND POPS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...BKN TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FINALLY
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT ALL
SITES. GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR
00Z. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AT KSLK/KMPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME MVFR BR AT
BTV AFTER 06Z. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
153 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT MONDAY...SFC WINDS ARE SHIFTING INTO THE WNW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW 10-15 MPH...WITH
GUSTS 20-25 MPH THRU MID-AFTN. A WEAK/DRY FRONTAL BNDRY FURTHER
NORTH...ACROSS SRN QUEBEC...WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A BAND OF CLOUD COVER...BUT
OTHERWISE THE FROPA SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
MOST OTHER AREAS. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS...TEMPERATURES...AND POPS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...BKN TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FINALLY
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT ALL
SITES. GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR
00Z. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AT KSLK/KMPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME MVFR BR AT
BTV AFTER 06Z. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KOKX 311741
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
141 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO KEEP BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN
LONGER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS
TODAY A FEW DEGREES. STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S. WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND THE NYC METRO
AREA.

ALSO...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC. WILL CARRY A 20 POP FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH 00Z. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE TERMINALS 06Z TO 11Z...THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT KSWF LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WIND WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST...AROUND 10 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE NYC TERMINALS.

AFTERWARD THE WIND FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE TIMING
OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...AND THE SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WIND COULD
EVEN BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TUESDAY BY
MIDDAY.


   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY REMAINS SOUTH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
LIKELY.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311741
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
141 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO KEEP BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN
LONGER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS
TODAY A FEW DEGREES. STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S. WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND THE NYC METRO
AREA.

ALSO...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC. WILL CARRY A 20 POP FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH 00Z. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE TERMINALS 06Z TO 11Z...THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT KSWF LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WIND WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST...AROUND 10 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE NYC TERMINALS.

AFTERWARD THE WIND FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE TIMING
OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...AND THE SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WIND COULD
EVEN BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TUESDAY BY
MIDDAY.


   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY REMAINS SOUTH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
LIKELY.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS



000
FXUS61 KOKX 311741
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
141 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO KEEP BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN
LONGER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS
TODAY A FEW DEGREES. STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S. WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND THE NYC METRO
AREA.

ALSO...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC. WILL CARRY A 20 POP FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH 00Z. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE TERMINALS 06Z TO 11Z...THEN MOVES NORTHEAST AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT KSWF LATE TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WIND WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST...AROUND 10 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE NYC TERMINALS.

AFTERWARD THE WIND FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE TIMING
OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...AND THE SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WIND COULD
EVEN BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TUESDAY BY
MIDDAY.


   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY REMAINS SOUTH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
LIKELY.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS




000
FXUS61 KBGM 311735
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
135 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING THE AREA VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY SOUTHWARD INTO NE PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES BTWN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA WITH LESSER CAPE/S NORTHWARD. SFC
ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS A WEAK FRNT THAT WAS ACRS THE SRN TIER OF NY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RIPPLE RIDING ACRS WRN PA/WRN NY
AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE E AND PRESS THIS WK BNDRY
FARTHER S AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A
LITTLE TSRA ESP IN NE PA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE SHEAR WAS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS.

AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS A
RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS ACRS NY AND
PA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG FORMATION.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...SEE JUST A FEW-SCT CUMULUS POPPING UP. OTHER
THAN THAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY FOR THE 1ST OF SEPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 590 DM ON TUESDAY. A DRY PERIOD IS
IN STORE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BOTH TUE AND WED. WEDNESDAY, A
SHORT WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SRN PA/NRN
VA. THIS FEATURE IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS PARTS OF NE PA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RUN 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUE/WED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH THE NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS NEAR 90 ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. GENERAL THEME IS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN LIGHT NW FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-
DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER MID- LEVELS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER
588 DM AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE BY DAY
AND 10 PERCENT OR LESS AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE JUST A VERY STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ECMWF SHOWS SOME FALLING HEIGHTS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY... HOWEVER NO AGREEMENT FROM THE
GFS AND BOTTOM LINE IS THAT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR CIG WILL LINGER AT KRME TIL ABT 19Z. THERE
WILL BE ISLD-SCT TSRA AROUND IN SRN TIER OF NY/NE PA BUT DIDNT PUT
INTO ANY TAFS SINCE PROBABILITIES WILL BE LESS THAN 30 PCT THAT A
STORM WILL AFFECT AN AIRPORT.

THEN AFTER SUNSET SKIES WILL CLEAR...VALLEY FOG WILL FORM AND
WILL GO WITH THE TYPICAL VLIFR IN FG/CIG AT KELM MAINLY FROM
8-1330Z AS PER CLIMO. I DO HAVE SOME PATCHY IFR AT KBGM 10-12Z AS
FOG LIFTS OUT OF THE VALLEYS. ALSO HAVE MVFR BR AT KAVP AND KITH
BTWN 9 AND 15Z. THIS CUD EVEN BE SOME HZ AS WELL.

W TO NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KTS. TONIGHT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT WINDS TUE AM.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...DJN



000
FXUS61 KBGM 311735
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
135 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING THE AREA VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
NY SOUTHWARD INTO NE PA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES BTWN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG IN THIS AREA WITH LESSER CAPE/S NORTHWARD. SFC
ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS A WEAK FRNT THAT WAS ACRS THE SRN TIER OF NY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL RIPPLE RIDING ACRS WRN PA/WRN NY
AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE E AND PRESS THIS WK BNDRY
FARTHER S AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A
LITTLE TSRA ESP IN NE PA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE SHEAR WAS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS.

AFTER SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS A
RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS ACRS NY AND
PA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MORNING WITH VALLEY FOG FORMATION.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...SEE JUST A FEW-SCT CUMULUS POPPING UP. OTHER
THAN THAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY FOR THE 1ST OF SEPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 590 DM ON TUESDAY. A DRY PERIOD IS
IN STORE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BOTH TUE AND WED. WEDNESDAY, A
SHORT WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SRN PA/NRN
VA. THIS FEATURE IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS PARTS OF NE PA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RUN 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUE/WED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH THE NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS NEAR 90 ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. GENERAL THEME IS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN LIGHT NW FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-
DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER MID- LEVELS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER
588 DM AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE BY DAY
AND 10 PERCENT OR LESS AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE JUST A VERY STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ECMWF SHOWS SOME FALLING HEIGHTS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY... HOWEVER NO AGREEMENT FROM THE
GFS AND BOTTOM LINE IS THAT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR CIG WILL LINGER AT KRME TIL ABT 19Z. THERE
WILL BE ISLD-SCT TSRA AROUND IN SRN TIER OF NY/NE PA BUT DIDNT PUT
INTO ANY TAFS SINCE PROBABILITIES WILL BE LESS THAN 30 PCT THAT A
STORM WILL AFFECT AN AIRPORT.

THEN AFTER SUNSET SKIES WILL CLEAR...VALLEY FOG WILL FORM AND
WILL GO WITH THE TYPICAL VLIFR IN FG/CIG AT KELM MAINLY FROM
8-1330Z AS PER CLIMO. I DO HAVE SOME PATCHY IFR AT KBGM 10-12Z AS
FOG LIFTS OUT OF THE VALLEYS. ALSO HAVE MVFR BR AT KAVP AND KITH
BTWN 9 AND 15Z. THIS CUD EVEN BE SOME HZ AS WELL.

W TO NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KTS. TONIGHT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT WINDS TUE AM.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY PM THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...DJN




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT MONDAY...SFC WINDS ARE SHIFTING INTO THE WNW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW 10-15 MPH...WITH
GUSTS 20-25 MPH THRU MID-AFTN. A WEAK/DRY FRONTAL BNDRY FURTHER
NORTH...ACROSS SRN QUEBEC...WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A BAND OF CLOUD COVER...BUT
OTHERWISE THE FROPA SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
MOST OTHER AREAS. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS...TEMPERATURES...AND POPS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A
FEW DEGREES BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR
LATER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...BKN TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FINALLY
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT ALL
SITES. GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR
00Z. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AT KSLK/KMPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME MVFR BR AT
BTV AFTER 06Z. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT MONDAY...SFC WINDS ARE SHIFTING INTO THE WNW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW 10-15 MPH...WITH
GUSTS 20-25 MPH THRU MID-AFTN. A WEAK/DRY FRONTAL BNDRY FURTHER
NORTH...ACROSS SRN QUEBEC...WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A BAND OF CLOUD COVER...BUT
OTHERWISE THE FROPA SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
MOST OTHER AREAS. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS...TEMPERATURES...AND POPS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A
FEW DEGREES BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR
LATER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...BKN TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FINALLY
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT ALL
SITES. GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR
00Z. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AT KSLK/KMPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME MVFR BR AT
BTV AFTER 06Z. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311716
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
116 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT MONDAY...SFC WINDS ARE SHIFTING INTO THE WNW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW 10-15 MPH...WITH
GUSTS 20-25 MPH THRU MID-AFTN. A WEAK/DRY FRONTAL BNDRY FURTHER
NORTH...ACROSS SRN QUEBEC...WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A BAND OF CLOUD COVER...BUT
OTHERWISE THE FROPA SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
MOST OTHER AREAS. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS...TEMPERATURES...AND POPS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A
FEW DEGREES BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR
LATER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AT KSLK/KMPV THROUGH 13Z TODAY WITH
MVFR/IFR IN FOG. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AT
KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 4000 FEET. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND WEST 10-20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311716
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
116 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT MONDAY...SFC WINDS ARE SHIFTING INTO THE WNW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT SETTLING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW 10-15 MPH...WITH
GUSTS 20-25 MPH THRU MID-AFTN. A WEAK/DRY FRONTAL BNDRY FURTHER
NORTH...ACROSS SRN QUEBEC...WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A BAND OF CLOUD COVER...BUT
OTHERWISE THE FROPA SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
MOST OTHER AREAS. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS...TEMPERATURES...AND POPS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A
FEW DEGREES BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR
LATER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AT KSLK/KMPV THROUGH 13Z TODAY WITH
MVFR/IFR IN FOG. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AT
KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 4000 FEET. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND WEST 10-20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 311701
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
101 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. 850MB FLOW SHOULD RELAX AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY OVERHEAD AND THIS SHOULD BETTER
FACILITATE DECOUPLING ACROSS THE AREA. IN TURN THE RESULTANT LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH DEWPOINTS...SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE PATCHY FOG THAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING WITH FOG
BEING MOST ACUTE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AS WELL
AS THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL REFLECT THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

AFTER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF TUESDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE AND
850MB TEMPS ABOUT +20C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

12Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE
ELEVATED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A
700MB INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO RE- DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER
06-08Z WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY. ANY
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE
LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 311701
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
101 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. 850MB FLOW SHOULD RELAX AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY OVERHEAD AND THIS SHOULD BETTER
FACILITATE DECOUPLING ACROSS THE AREA. IN TURN THE RESULTANT LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH DEWPOINTS...SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE PATCHY FOG THAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING WITH FOG
BEING MOST ACUTE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AS WELL
AS THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL REFLECT THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

AFTER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF TUESDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE AND
850MB TEMPS ABOUT +20C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

12Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE
ELEVATED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A
700MB INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO RE- DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER
06-08Z WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY. ANY
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE
LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN



000
FXUS61 KBUF 311701
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
101 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. 850MB FLOW SHOULD RELAX AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY OVERHEAD AND THIS SHOULD BETTER
FACILITATE DECOUPLING ACROSS THE AREA. IN TURN THE RESULTANT LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH DEWPOINTS...SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE PATCHY FOG THAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING WITH FOG
BEING MOST ACUTE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AS WELL
AS THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL REFLECT THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

AFTER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF TUESDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE AND
850MB TEMPS ABOUT +20C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

12Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE
ELEVATED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A
700MB INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO RE- DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER
06-08Z WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY. ANY
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE
LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN



000
FXUS61 KOKX 311635
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1235 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO KEEP BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN
LONGER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS
TODAY A FEW DEGREES. STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S. WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND THE NYC METRO
AREA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KSWF
LATE TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OTHER OUTLYING
TERMINALS.

W-WSW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END AFTER
SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT VEER AROUND TO THE WNW AND THEN N-NNE LATE BEHIND
COLD FRONT.


   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE
IS NOT EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS/MET
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311635
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1235 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO KEEP BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN
LONGER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS
TODAY A FEW DEGREES. STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S. WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND THE NYC METRO
AREA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KSWF
LATE TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OTHER OUTLYING
TERMINALS.

W-WSW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END AFTER
SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT VEER AROUND TO THE WNW AND THEN N-NNE LATE BEHIND
COLD FRONT.


   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE
IS NOT EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS/MET
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311635
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1235 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO KEEP BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN
LONGER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS
TODAY A FEW DEGREES. STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S. WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND THE NYC METRO
AREA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KSWF
LATE TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OTHER OUTLYING
TERMINALS.

W-WSW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END AFTER
SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT VEER AROUND TO THE WNW AND THEN N-NNE LATE BEHIND
COLD FRONT.


   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE
IS NOT EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS/MET
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311635
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1235 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO KEEP BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN
LONGER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS
TODAY A FEW DEGREES. STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S. WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND THE NYC METRO
AREA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KSWF
LATE TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OTHER OUTLYING
TERMINALS.

W-WSW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END AFTER
SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT VEER AROUND TO THE WNW AND THEN N-NNE LATE BEHIND
COLD FRONT.


   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE
IS NOT EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS/MET
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311635
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1235 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO KEEP BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN
LONGER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS
TODAY A FEW DEGREES. STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S. WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND THE NYC METRO
AREA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KSWF
LATE TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OTHER OUTLYING
TERMINALS.

W-WSW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END AFTER
SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT VEER AROUND TO THE WNW AND THEN N-NNE LATE BEHIND
COLD FRONT.


   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE
IS NOT EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS/MET
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311635
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1235 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO KEEP BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN
LONGER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS
TODAY A FEW DEGREES. STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S. WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN AND AROUND THE NYC METRO
AREA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KSWF
LATE TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OTHER OUTLYING
TERMINALS.

W-WSW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END AFTER
SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT VEER AROUND TO THE WNW AND THEN N-NNE LATE BEHIND
COLD FRONT.


   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE
IS NOT EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS/MET
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1037 AM EDT MONDAY...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER NEXT FEW HRS. INCREASING MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE APPEARS
TO BE TRAPPING LOW-LEVEL MOIST/CLOUD LAYER 3-4KFT AGL...AND THIS
IS REFLECTED IN RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
INCREASED MIXING WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO TREND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. INCREASING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL OTHERWISE REINFORCE DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW-W AT 10-15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
MOST OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A
FEW DEGREES BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR
LATER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AT KSLK/KMPV THROUGH 13Z TODAY WITH
MVFR/IFR IN FOG. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AT
KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 4000 FEET. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND WEST 10-20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1037 AM EDT MONDAY...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER NEXT FEW HRS. INCREASING MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE APPEARS
TO BE TRAPPING LOW-LEVEL MOIST/CLOUD LAYER 3-4KFT AGL...AND THIS
IS REFLECTED IN RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
INCREASED MIXING WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO TREND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. INCREASING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL OTHERWISE REINFORCE DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW-W AT 10-15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
MOST OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A
FEW DEGREES BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR
LATER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AT KSLK/KMPV THROUGH 13Z TODAY WITH
MVFR/IFR IN FOG. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AT
KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 4000 FEET. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND WEST 10-20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1037 AM EDT MONDAY...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER NEXT FEW HRS. INCREASING MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE APPEARS
TO BE TRAPPING LOW-LEVEL MOIST/CLOUD LAYER 3-4KFT AGL...AND THIS
IS REFLECTED IN RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
INCREASED MIXING WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO TREND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. INCREASING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL OTHERWISE REINFORCE DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW-W AT 10-15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
MOST OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A
FEW DEGREES BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR
LATER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AT KSLK/KMPV THROUGH 13Z TODAY WITH
MVFR/IFR IN FOG. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AT
KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 4000 FEET. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND WEST 10-20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311442
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1037 AM EDT MONDAY...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER NEXT FEW HRS. INCREASING MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE APPEARS
TO BE TRAPPING LOW-LEVEL MOIST/CLOUD LAYER 3-4KFT AGL...AND THIS
IS REFLECTED IN RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
INCREASED MIXING WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO TREND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. INCREASING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL OTHERWISE REINFORCE DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW-W AT 10-15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
MOST OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A
FEW DEGREES BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR
LATER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AT KSLK/KMPV THROUGH 13Z TODAY WITH
MVFR/IFR IN FOG. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AT
KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 4000 FEET. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND WEST 10-20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBGM 311429
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1029 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING THE AREA VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH AND TRIGGER SOME ISLD SHRA AND
MAYBE A TSRA OR TWO IN NE PA/SULLIVAN CO NY LATER AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. NORTH OF THIS...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS AND
THE TIMING OF THE WAVE TOO EARLY FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT TO
FIRE. SO KEPT POPS LIKE PREV SHIFT. SEE PREV DSCN BELOW.

PREVIOUS DSCN...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING MORE CLOUD
COVER TO NE PA THAN CENTRAL NY. ALONG WITH THIS BETTER MOISTURE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
NRN PA. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 590 DM ON TUESDAY. A DRY PERIOD IS
IN STORE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BOTH TUE AND WED. WEDNESDAY, A
SHORT WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SRN PA/NRN
VA. THIS FEATURE IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS PARTS OF NE PA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RUN 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUE/WED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH THE NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS NEAR 90 ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. GENERAL THEME IS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN LIGHT NW FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-
DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER MID- LEVELS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER
588 DM AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE BY DAY
AND 10 PERCENT OR LESS AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE JUST A VERY STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ECMWF SHOWS SOME FALLING HEIGHTS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY... HOWEVER NO AGREEMENT FROM THE
GFS AND BOTTOM LINE IS THAT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 AM MONDAY UPDATE...

KELM HAS CIGS AND VSBYS NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS WHICH WILL BURN OFF
BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z. OTHER SITES SHOULD LOSE THE MVFR VSBY FOG BY
13Z. TODAY SCT TO BKN VFR CLOUDS. ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS BGM/ELM/AVP. RESTRICTIONS NOT LIKELY.

THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR AGAIN. FOG WILL FORM AGAIN WITH MVFR
ITH/BGM/AVP AND IFR ELM. ELM AGAIN NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS LATE
TONIGHT.

WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY. DURING THE DAY W TO NW WINDS AT 5
TO 10 KTS. TONIGHT AGAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJN/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...TAC



000
FXUS61 KBGM 311429
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1029 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING THE AREA VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH AND TRIGGER SOME ISLD SHRA AND
MAYBE A TSRA OR TWO IN NE PA/SULLIVAN CO NY LATER AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. NORTH OF THIS...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS AND
THE TIMING OF THE WAVE TOO EARLY FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT TO
FIRE. SO KEPT POPS LIKE PREV SHIFT. SEE PREV DSCN BELOW.

PREVIOUS DSCN...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING MORE CLOUD
COVER TO NE PA THAN CENTRAL NY. ALONG WITH THIS BETTER MOISTURE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
NRN PA. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 590 DM ON TUESDAY. A DRY PERIOD IS
IN STORE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BOTH TUE AND WED. WEDNESDAY, A
SHORT WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SRN PA/NRN
VA. THIS FEATURE IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS PARTS OF NE PA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RUN 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUE/WED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH THE NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS NEAR 90 ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. GENERAL THEME IS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN LIGHT NW FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-
DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER MID- LEVELS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER
588 DM AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE BY DAY
AND 10 PERCENT OR LESS AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE JUST A VERY STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ECMWF SHOWS SOME FALLING HEIGHTS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY... HOWEVER NO AGREEMENT FROM THE
GFS AND BOTTOM LINE IS THAT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 AM MONDAY UPDATE...

KELM HAS CIGS AND VSBYS NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS WHICH WILL BURN OFF
BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z. OTHER SITES SHOULD LOSE THE MVFR VSBY FOG BY
13Z. TODAY SCT TO BKN VFR CLOUDS. ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS BGM/ELM/AVP. RESTRICTIONS NOT LIKELY.

THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR AGAIN. FOG WILL FORM AGAIN WITH MVFR
ITH/BGM/AVP AND IFR ELM. ELM AGAIN NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS LATE
TONIGHT.

WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY. DURING THE DAY W TO NW WINDS AT 5
TO 10 KTS. TONIGHT AGAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJN/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...TAC



000
FXUS61 KBGM 311429
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1029 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING THE AREA VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH AND TRIGGER SOME ISLD SHRA AND
MAYBE A TSRA OR TWO IN NE PA/SULLIVAN CO NY LATER AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. NORTH OF THIS...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS AND
THE TIMING OF THE WAVE TOO EARLY FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT TO
FIRE. SO KEPT POPS LIKE PREV SHIFT. SEE PREV DSCN BELOW.

PREVIOUS DSCN...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING MORE CLOUD
COVER TO NE PA THAN CENTRAL NY. ALONG WITH THIS BETTER MOISTURE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
NRN PA. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 590 DM ON TUESDAY. A DRY PERIOD IS
IN STORE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BOTH TUE AND WED. WEDNESDAY, A
SHORT WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SRN PA/NRN
VA. THIS FEATURE IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS PARTS OF NE PA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RUN 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUE/WED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH THE NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS NEAR 90 ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. GENERAL THEME IS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN LIGHT NW FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-
DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER MID- LEVELS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER
588 DM AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE BY DAY
AND 10 PERCENT OR LESS AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE JUST A VERY STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ECMWF SHOWS SOME FALLING HEIGHTS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY... HOWEVER NO AGREEMENT FROM THE
GFS AND BOTTOM LINE IS THAT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 AM MONDAY UPDATE...

KELM HAS CIGS AND VSBYS NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS WHICH WILL BURN OFF
BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z. OTHER SITES SHOULD LOSE THE MVFR VSBY FOG BY
13Z. TODAY SCT TO BKN VFR CLOUDS. ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS BGM/ELM/AVP. RESTRICTIONS NOT LIKELY.

THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR AGAIN. FOG WILL FORM AGAIN WITH MVFR
ITH/BGM/AVP AND IFR ELM. ELM AGAIN NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS LATE
TONIGHT.

WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY. DURING THE DAY W TO NW WINDS AT 5
TO 10 KTS. TONIGHT AGAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJN/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...TAC




000
FXUS61 KBGM 311429
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1029 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING THE AREA VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH SOUTH AND TRIGGER SOME ISLD SHRA AND
MAYBE A TSRA OR TWO IN NE PA/SULLIVAN CO NY LATER AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. NORTH OF THIS...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS AND
THE TIMING OF THE WAVE TOO EARLY FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT TO
FIRE. SO KEPT POPS LIKE PREV SHIFT. SEE PREV DSCN BELOW.

PREVIOUS DSCN...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING MORE CLOUD
COVER TO NE PA THAN CENTRAL NY. ALONG WITH THIS BETTER MOISTURE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
NRN PA. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 590 DM ON TUESDAY. A DRY PERIOD IS
IN STORE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BOTH TUE AND WED. WEDNESDAY, A
SHORT WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SRN PA/NRN
VA. THIS FEATURE IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS PARTS OF NE PA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RUN 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUE/WED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH THE NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS NEAR 90 ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. GENERAL THEME IS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN LIGHT NW FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-
DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER MID- LEVELS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER
588 DM AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE BY DAY
AND 10 PERCENT OR LESS AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE JUST A VERY STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ECMWF SHOWS SOME FALLING HEIGHTS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY... HOWEVER NO AGREEMENT FROM THE
GFS AND BOTTOM LINE IS THAT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 AM MONDAY UPDATE...

KELM HAS CIGS AND VSBYS NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS WHICH WILL BURN OFF
BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z. OTHER SITES SHOULD LOSE THE MVFR VSBY FOG BY
13Z. TODAY SCT TO BKN VFR CLOUDS. ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS BGM/ELM/AVP. RESTRICTIONS NOT LIKELY.

THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR AGAIN. FOG WILL FORM AGAIN WITH MVFR
ITH/BGM/AVP AND IFR ELM. ELM AGAIN NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS LATE
TONIGHT.

WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY. DURING THE DAY W TO NW WINDS AT 5
TO 10 KTS. TONIGHT AGAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJN/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...TAC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311424
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1024 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AS IT
APPROACHES...A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THAT AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS INCREASED SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A WARM AND HUMID DAY AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NYC
AND URBANIZED PORTIONS OF NE NJ...WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. FOR NYC...THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 95
TODAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KSWF
LATE TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OTHER OUTLYING
TERMINALS.

W-WSW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END AFTER
SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT VEER AROUND TO THE WNW AND THEN N-NNE LATE BEHIND
COLD FRONT.


   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE
IS NOT EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC/GC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS/MET
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311424
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1024 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AS IT
APPROACHES...A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THAT AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS INCREASED SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A WARM AND HUMID DAY AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NYC
AND URBANIZED PORTIONS OF NE NJ...WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. FOR NYC...THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 95
TODAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KSWF
LATE TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OTHER OUTLYING
TERMINALS.

W-WSW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END AFTER
SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT VEER AROUND TO THE WNW AND THEN N-NNE LATE BEHIND
COLD FRONT.


   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE
IS NOT EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC/GC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS/MET
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS



000
FXUS61 KALY 311404
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1004 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1004 AM EDT...THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED QUICKLY BETWEEN 830 AM
AND 10 AM ACROSS THE VALLEY AREAS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND SE CANADA. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING
EAST ACROSS E/SE QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS...THE ERN CATSKILLS...AND ALONG THE
WRN SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BTWN THE MTNS/VALLEYS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS
SOUTHWARD...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOG HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT OVER PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. LIFR/IFR FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER KPSF FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED FROM 12Z-14Z THERE.
SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST WILL LINGER UNTIL 13Z AT KGFL/KALB.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 311404
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1004 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1004 AM EDT...THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED QUICKLY BETWEEN 830 AM
AND 10 AM ACROSS THE VALLEY AREAS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND SE CANADA. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING
EAST ACROSS E/SE QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS...THE ERN CATSKILLS...AND ALONG THE
WRN SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BTWN THE MTNS/VALLEYS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS
SOUTHWARD...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOG HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT OVER PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. LIFR/IFR FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER KPSF FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED FROM 12Z-14Z THERE.
SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST WILL LINGER UNTIL 13Z AT KGFL/KALB.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 311404
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1004 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1004 AM EDT...THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED QUICKLY BETWEEN 830 AM
AND 10 AM ACROSS THE VALLEY AREAS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND SE CANADA. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING
EAST ACROSS E/SE QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS...THE ERN CATSKILLS...AND ALONG THE
WRN SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BTWN THE MTNS/VALLEYS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS
SOUTHWARD...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOG HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT OVER PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. LIFR/IFR FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER KPSF FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED FROM 12Z-14Z THERE.
SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST WILL LINGER UNTIL 13Z AT KGFL/KALB.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 311355
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
955 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UP TO ABOUT
800MB. WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS TO MIX OUT WITH LATE AUGUST
SUNSHINE. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVELS THE COMBINATION OF THE PRESENCE OF A
DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE LOWER GREAT LAKES` LOCATION ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THIS HIGH IS PLACING THE AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT...COMBINED WITH
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST SHOULD YIELD A LARGELY SUNNY AND WARM DAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...THIS WILL FEEL QUITE STICKY HOWEVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF ANY SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU
POSSIBLE INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. 850MB FLOW SHOULD RELAX AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY OVERHEAD AND THIS SHOULD BETTER FACILITATE
DECOUPLING ACROSS THE AREA. IN TURN THE RESULTANT LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH DEWPOINTS...SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
PATCHY FOG THAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING WITH FOG BEING MOST ACUTE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AS WELL AS THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REFLECT THE
HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL
EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20 WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS A
POSITIVE 1-2SD ANOMALY. THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION
OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK. SURFACE
HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE
GENESEE VALLEY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY
SLIPPING BACK INTO THE 60S.

00Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR  WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A 700MB
INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSES SOUTH
ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
WITH MODEST /POSSIBLY SURFACE BASED/ INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT WITH
LIFT...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PRESENT. FRIDAY ALSO PRESENTS A
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER END OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOCUSED INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR
AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SKIES ACROSS WRN AND NCTRL NY ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING
WITH PATCHY FOG. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY
16-17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG
TO RE-DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06-08Z WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND
LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE
LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD



000
FXUS61 KBUF 311355
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
955 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UP TO ABOUT
800MB. WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS TO MIX OUT WITH LATE AUGUST
SUNSHINE. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVELS THE COMBINATION OF THE PRESENCE OF A
DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE LOWER GREAT LAKES` LOCATION ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THIS HIGH IS PLACING THE AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT...COMBINED WITH
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST SHOULD YIELD A LARGELY SUNNY AND WARM DAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...THIS WILL FEEL QUITE STICKY HOWEVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF ANY SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU
POSSIBLE INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. 850MB FLOW SHOULD RELAX AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY OVERHEAD AND THIS SHOULD BETTER FACILITATE
DECOUPLING ACROSS THE AREA. IN TURN THE RESULTANT LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH DEWPOINTS...SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
PATCHY FOG THAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING WITH FOG BEING MOST ACUTE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AS WELL AS THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REFLECT THE
HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL
EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20 WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS A
POSITIVE 1-2SD ANOMALY. THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION
OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK. SURFACE
HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE
GENESEE VALLEY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY
SLIPPING BACK INTO THE 60S.

00Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR  WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A 700MB
INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSES SOUTH
ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
WITH MODEST /POSSIBLY SURFACE BASED/ INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT WITH
LIFT...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PRESENT. FRIDAY ALSO PRESENTS A
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER END OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOCUSED INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR
AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SKIES ACROSS WRN AND NCTRL NY ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING
WITH PATCHY FOG. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY
16-17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG
TO RE-DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06-08Z WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND
LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE
LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD



000
FXUS61 KBUF 311355
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
955 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UP TO ABOUT
800MB. WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS TO MIX OUT WITH LATE AUGUST
SUNSHINE. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVELS THE COMBINATION OF THE PRESENCE OF A
DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE LOWER GREAT LAKES` LOCATION ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THIS HIGH IS PLACING THE AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT...COMBINED WITH
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST SHOULD YIELD A LARGELY SUNNY AND WARM DAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...THIS WILL FEEL QUITE STICKY HOWEVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF ANY SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU
POSSIBLE INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. 850MB FLOW SHOULD RELAX AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY OVERHEAD AND THIS SHOULD BETTER FACILITATE
DECOUPLING ACROSS THE AREA. IN TURN THE RESULTANT LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH DEWPOINTS...SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
PATCHY FOG THAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING WITH FOG BEING MOST ACUTE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AS WELL AS THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REFLECT THE
HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL
EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20 WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS A
POSITIVE 1-2SD ANOMALY. THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION
OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK. SURFACE
HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE
GENESEE VALLEY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY
SLIPPING BACK INTO THE 60S.

00Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR  WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A 700MB
INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSES SOUTH
ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
WITH MODEST /POSSIBLY SURFACE BASED/ INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT WITH
LIFT...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PRESENT. FRIDAY ALSO PRESENTS A
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER END OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOCUSED INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR
AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SKIES ACROSS WRN AND NCTRL NY ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING
WITH PATCHY FOG. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY
16-17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG
TO RE-DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06-08Z WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND
LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE
LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD




000
FXUS61 KALY 311221
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
821 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...HAS ALSO FORMED WITHIN SOME
VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
EASTERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VT
AND WESTERN MA. THIS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8
AND 10 AM.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOG HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT OVER PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. LIFR/IFR FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER KPSF FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED FROM 12Z-14Z THERE.
SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST WILL LINGER UNTIL 13Z AT KGFL/KALB.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 311221
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
821 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...HAS ALSO FORMED WITHIN SOME
VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
EASTERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VT
AND WESTERN MA. THIS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8
AND 10 AM.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOG HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT OVER PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. LIFR/IFR FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER KPSF FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED FROM 12Z-14Z THERE.
SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST WILL LINGER UNTIL 13Z AT KGFL/KALB.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 311221
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
821 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...HAS ALSO FORMED WITHIN SOME
VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
EASTERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VT
AND WESTERN MA. THIS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8
AND 10 AM.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOG HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT OVER PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. LIFR/IFR FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER KPSF FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED FROM 12Z-14Z THERE.
SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST WILL LINGER UNTIL 13Z AT KGFL/KALB.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 311221
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
821 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...HAS ALSO FORMED WITHIN SOME
VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
EASTERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VT
AND WESTERN MA. THIS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8
AND 10 AM.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOG HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT OVER PARTS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND. LIFR/IFR FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER KPSF FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED FROM 12Z-14Z THERE.
SOME PATCHY MVFR MIST WILL LINGER UNTIL 13Z AT KGFL/KALB.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 311147
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
747 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVELS THE COMBINATION OF THE PRESENCE OF A
DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE LOWER GREAT LAKES` LOCATION ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THIS HIGH IS PLACING THE AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT...COMBINED WITH
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST SHOULD YIELD A LARGELY SUNNY AND WARM DAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...THIS WILL FEEL QUITE STICKY HOWEVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF ANY SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU
POSSIBLE INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. 850MB FLOW SHOULD RELAX AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY OVERHEAD AND THIS SHOULD BETTER FACILITATE
DECOUPLING ACROSS THE AREA. IN TURN THE RESULTANT LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH DEWPOINTS...SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
PATCHY FOG THAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING WITH FOG BEING MOST ACUTE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AS WELL AS THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REFLECT THE
HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL
EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20 WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS A
POSITIVE 1-2SD ANOMALY. THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION
OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK. SURFACE
HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE
GENESEE VALLEY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY
SLIPPING BACK INTO THE 60S.

00Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR  WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A 700MB
INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSES SOUTH
ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
WITH MODEST /POSSIBLY SURFACE BASED/ INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT WITH
LIFT...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PRESENT. FRIDAY ALSO PRESENTS A
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER END OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOCUSED INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR
AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SKIES ACROSS WRN AND NCTRL NY ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
ACROSS MANY AREAS. THIS FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY 14Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY
IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO RE-DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06-08Z WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE BLACK
RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE
LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 311147
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
747 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVELS THE COMBINATION OF THE PRESENCE OF A
DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE LOWER GREAT LAKES` LOCATION ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THIS HIGH IS PLACING THE AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT...COMBINED WITH
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST SHOULD YIELD A LARGELY SUNNY AND WARM DAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...THIS WILL FEEL QUITE STICKY HOWEVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF ANY SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU
POSSIBLE INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. 850MB FLOW SHOULD RELAX AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY OVERHEAD AND THIS SHOULD BETTER FACILITATE
DECOUPLING ACROSS THE AREA. IN TURN THE RESULTANT LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH DEWPOINTS...SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
PATCHY FOG THAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING WITH FOG BEING MOST ACUTE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AS WELL AS THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REFLECT THE
HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL
EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20 WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS A
POSITIVE 1-2SD ANOMALY. THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION
OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK. SURFACE
HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE
GENESEE VALLEY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY
SLIPPING BACK INTO THE 60S.

00Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR  WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A 700MB
INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSES SOUTH
ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
WITH MODEST /POSSIBLY SURFACE BASED/ INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT WITH
LIFT...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PRESENT. FRIDAY ALSO PRESENTS A
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER END OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOCUSED INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR
AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SKIES ACROSS WRN AND NCTRL NY ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
ACROSS MANY AREAS. THIS FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY 14Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY
IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO RE-DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06-08Z WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE BLACK
RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE
LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 311147
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
747 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVELS THE COMBINATION OF THE PRESENCE OF A
DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE LOWER GREAT LAKES` LOCATION ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THIS HIGH IS PLACING THE AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT...COMBINED WITH
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST SHOULD YIELD A LARGELY SUNNY AND WARM DAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...THIS WILL FEEL QUITE STICKY HOWEVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF ANY SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU
POSSIBLE INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. 850MB FLOW SHOULD RELAX AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY OVERHEAD AND THIS SHOULD BETTER FACILITATE
DECOUPLING ACROSS THE AREA. IN TURN THE RESULTANT LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH DEWPOINTS...SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
PATCHY FOG THAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING WITH FOG BEING MOST ACUTE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AS WELL AS THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REFLECT THE
HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL
EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20 WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS A
POSITIVE 1-2SD ANOMALY. THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION
OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK. SURFACE
HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE
GENESEE VALLEY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY
SLIPPING BACK INTO THE 60S.

00Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR  WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A 700MB
INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSES SOUTH
ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
WITH MODEST /POSSIBLY SURFACE BASED/ INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT WITH
LIFT...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PRESENT. FRIDAY ALSO PRESENTS A
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER END OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOCUSED INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR
AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SKIES ACROSS WRN AND NCTRL NY ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
ACROSS MANY AREAS. THIS FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY 14Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY
IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO RE-DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06-08Z WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE BLACK
RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE
LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 311147
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
747 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVELS THE COMBINATION OF THE PRESENCE OF A
DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE LOWER GREAT LAKES` LOCATION ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THIS HIGH IS PLACING THE AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT...COMBINED WITH
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST SHOULD YIELD A LARGELY SUNNY AND WARM DAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...THIS WILL FEEL QUITE STICKY HOWEVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF ANY SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU
POSSIBLE INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. 850MB FLOW SHOULD RELAX AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY OVERHEAD AND THIS SHOULD BETTER FACILITATE
DECOUPLING ACROSS THE AREA. IN TURN THE RESULTANT LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH DEWPOINTS...SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
PATCHY FOG THAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING WITH FOG BEING MOST ACUTE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AS WELL AS THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REFLECT THE
HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL
EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20 WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS A
POSITIVE 1-2SD ANOMALY. THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION
OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK. SURFACE
HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE
GENESEE VALLEY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY
SLIPPING BACK INTO THE 60S.

00Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR  WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A 700MB
INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSES SOUTH
ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
WITH MODEST /POSSIBLY SURFACE BASED/ INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT WITH
LIFT...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PRESENT. FRIDAY ALSO PRESENTS A
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER END OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOCUSED INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR
AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SKIES ACROSS WRN AND NCTRL NY ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
ACROSS MANY AREAS. THIS FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY 14Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY
IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO RE-DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06-08Z WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE BLACK
RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE
LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 311147
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
747 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVELS THE COMBINATION OF THE PRESENCE OF A
DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE LOWER GREAT LAKES` LOCATION ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THIS HIGH IS PLACING THE AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT...COMBINED WITH
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST SHOULD YIELD A LARGELY SUNNY AND WARM DAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...THIS WILL FEEL QUITE STICKY HOWEVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF ANY SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU
POSSIBLE INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. 850MB FLOW SHOULD RELAX AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY OVERHEAD AND THIS SHOULD BETTER FACILITATE
DECOUPLING ACROSS THE AREA. IN TURN THE RESULTANT LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH DEWPOINTS...SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
PATCHY FOG THAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING WITH FOG BEING MOST ACUTE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AS WELL AS THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REFLECT THE
HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL
EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20 WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS A
POSITIVE 1-2SD ANOMALY. THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION
OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK. SURFACE
HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE
GENESEE VALLEY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY
SLIPPING BACK INTO THE 60S.

00Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR  WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A 700MB
INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSES SOUTH
ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
WITH MODEST /POSSIBLY SURFACE BASED/ INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT WITH
LIFT...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PRESENT. FRIDAY ALSO PRESENTS A
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER END OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOCUSED INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR
AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SKIES ACROSS WRN AND NCTRL NY ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
ACROSS MANY AREAS. THIS FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY 14Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY
IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO RE-DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06-08Z WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE BLACK
RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE
LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311132
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 712 AM EDT MONDAY...PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE MORNING
CONTINUES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALREADY PICKING UP IN SOME
AREAS AT 3-6KTS AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. OVERALL ANOTHER
QUIET WEATHER DAY.

500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY
BUT INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL REINFORCE DRY WEATHER AS RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THEREFORE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...AT
10-15 KTS. OTHERWISE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S
IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A
FEW DEGREES BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR
LATER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AT KSLK/KMPV THROUGH 13Z TODAY WITH
MVFR/IFR IN FOG. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AT
KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 4000 FEET. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND WEST 10-20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311132
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 712 AM EDT MONDAY...PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE MORNING
CONTINUES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALREADY PICKING UP IN SOME
AREAS AT 3-6KTS AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. OVERALL ANOTHER
QUIET WEATHER DAY.

500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY
BUT INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL REINFORCE DRY WEATHER AS RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THEREFORE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...AT
10-15 KTS. OTHERWISE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S
IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A
FEW DEGREES BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR
LATER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AT KSLK/KMPV THROUGH 13Z TODAY WITH
MVFR/IFR IN FOG. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AT
KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 4000 FEET. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND WEST 10-20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311126
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
726 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN MID AND UPPER LVL CLOUDS WITH SCT SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE MVG EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ...SOUTH OF THE AREA...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK UPSTREAM TROUGH.

RADIATIONAL PATCHY GROUND FOG CONTS TO DEVELOP WEST AND NORTH OF
NYC...INCLUDING INTERIOR SW CT. DESPITE FWN / SUSSEX CO NJ
REPORTING 1/2 MILE...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE VSBYS NO LOWER
THAN 2 MILES UNTIL ARND 13Z.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AS IT
APPROACHES...A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THAT AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS INCREASED SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A WARM AND HUMID DAY AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NYC
AND URBANIZED PORTIONS OF NE NJ...WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. FOR NYC...THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 95
TODAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
TONIGHT.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

W-WSW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END
AFTER SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT VEER AROUND TO THE WNW AND THEN N-NNE LATE BEHIND
COLD FRONT.

PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...GC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 311126
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
726 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN MID AND UPPER LVL CLOUDS WITH SCT SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE MVG EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ...SOUTH OF THE AREA...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK UPSTREAM TROUGH.

RADIATIONAL PATCHY GROUND FOG CONTS TO DEVELOP WEST AND NORTH OF
NYC...INCLUDING INTERIOR SW CT. DESPITE FWN / SUSSEX CO NJ
REPORTING 1/2 MILE...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE VSBYS NO LOWER
THAN 2 MILES UNTIL ARND 13Z.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AS IT
APPROACHES...A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THAT AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS INCREASED SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A WARM AND HUMID DAY AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NYC
AND URBANIZED PORTIONS OF NE NJ...WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. FOR NYC...THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 95
TODAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
TONIGHT.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

W-WSW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END
AFTER SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT VEER AROUND TO THE WNW AND THEN N-NNE LATE BEHIND
COLD FRONT.

PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...GC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311112
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
712 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 712 AM EDT MONDAY...PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE MORNING
CONTINUES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALREADY PICKING UP IN SOME
AREAS AT 3-6KTS AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. OVERALL ANOTHER
QUIET WEATHER DAY.

500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY
BUT INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL REINFORCE DRY WEATHER AS RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THEREFORE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...AT
10-15 KTS. OTHERWISE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S
IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A
FEW DEGREES BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR
LATER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
OVERNIGHT....ESPECIALLY FROM 08-12Z. CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND
5 KNOTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR
MAINLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311112
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
712 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 712 AM EDT MONDAY...PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE MORNING
CONTINUES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALREADY PICKING UP IN SOME
AREAS AT 3-6KTS AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. OVERALL ANOTHER
QUIET WEATHER DAY.

500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY
BUT INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL REINFORCE DRY WEATHER AS RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THEREFORE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...AT
10-15 KTS. OTHERWISE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S
IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A
FEW DEGREES BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR
LATER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
OVERNIGHT....ESPECIALLY FROM 08-12Z. CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND
5 KNOTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR
MAINLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



000
FXUS61 KBGM 311052
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
652 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING THE AREA VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING MORE CLOUD
COVER TO NE PA THAN CENTRAL NY. ALONG WITH THIS BETTER MOISTURE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
NRN PA. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 590 DM ON TUESDAY. A DRY PERIOD IS
IN STORE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BOTH TUE AND WED. WEDNESDAY, A
SHORT WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SRN PA/NRN
VA. THIS FEATURE IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS PARTS OF NE PA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RUN 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUE/WED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH THE NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS NEAR 90 ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. GENERAL THEME IS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN LIGHT NW FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-
DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER MID- LEVELS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER
588 DM AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE BY DAY
AND 10 PERCENT OR LESS AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE JUST A VERY STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ECMWF SHOWS SOME FALLING HEIGHTS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY... HOWEVER NO AGREEMENT FROM THE
GFS AND BOTTOM LINE IS THAT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 AM MONDAY UPDATE...

KELM HAS CIGS AND VSBYS NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS WHICH WILL BURN OFF
BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z. OTHER SITES SHOULD LOSE THE MVFR VSBY FOG BY
13Z. TODAY SCT TO BKN VFR CLOUDS. ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS BGM/ELM/AVP. RESTRICTIONS NOT LIKELY.

THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR AGAIN. FOG WILL FORM AGAIN WITH MVFR
ITH/BGM/AVP AND IFR ELM. ELM AGAIN NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS LATE
TONIGHT.

WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY. DURING THE DAY W TO NW WINDS AT 5
TO 10 KTS. TONIGHT AGAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...TAC



000
FXUS61 KBGM 311052
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
652 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING THE AREA VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING MORE CLOUD
COVER TO NE PA THAN CENTRAL NY. ALONG WITH THIS BETTER MOISTURE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
NRN PA. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 590 DM ON TUESDAY. A DRY PERIOD IS
IN STORE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BOTH TUE AND WED. WEDNESDAY, A
SHORT WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SRN PA/NRN
VA. THIS FEATURE IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS PARTS OF NE PA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RUN 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUE/WED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH THE NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS NEAR 90 ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. GENERAL THEME IS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN LIGHT NW FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-
DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER MID- LEVELS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER
588 DM AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE BY DAY
AND 10 PERCENT OR LESS AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE JUST A VERY STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ECMWF SHOWS SOME FALLING HEIGHTS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY... HOWEVER NO AGREEMENT FROM THE
GFS AND BOTTOM LINE IS THAT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 AM MONDAY UPDATE...

KELM HAS CIGS AND VSBYS NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS WHICH WILL BURN OFF
BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z. OTHER SITES SHOULD LOSE THE MVFR VSBY FOG BY
13Z. TODAY SCT TO BKN VFR CLOUDS. ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS BGM/ELM/AVP. RESTRICTIONS NOT LIKELY.

THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR AGAIN. FOG WILL FORM AGAIN WITH MVFR
ITH/BGM/AVP AND IFR ELM. ELM AGAIN NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS LATE
TONIGHT.

WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY. DURING THE DAY W TO NW WINDS AT 5
TO 10 KTS. TONIGHT AGAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...TAC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311028
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
628 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN MID AND UPPER LVL CLOUDS WITH SCT SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE MVG EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ...SOUTH OF THE AREA...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK UPSTREAM TROUGH.

RADIATIONAL PATCHY GROUND FOG CONTS TO DEVELOP WEST AND NORTH OF
NYC...INCLUDING INTERIOR SW CT. DESPITE FWN / SUSSEX CO NJ
REPORTING 1/2 MILE...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE VSBYS NO LOWER
THAN 2 MILES UNTIL ARND 13Z.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AS IT
APPROACHES...A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THAT AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS INCREASED SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A WARM AND HUMID DAY AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NYC
AND URBANIZED PORTIONS OF NE NJ...WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. FOR NYC...THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 95
TODAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

GENERALLY LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE. W-WSW WINDS
AROUND 10 KT DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...10
TO 15 KT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END
AFTER SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
PROBABLE EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...GC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 311028
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
628 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN MID AND UPPER LVL CLOUDS WITH SCT SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE MVG EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ...SOUTH OF THE AREA...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK UPSTREAM TROUGH.

RADIATIONAL PATCHY GROUND FOG CONTS TO DEVELOP WEST AND NORTH OF
NYC...INCLUDING INTERIOR SW CT. DESPITE FWN / SUSSEX CO NJ
REPORTING 1/2 MILE...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE VSBYS NO LOWER
THAN 2 MILES UNTIL ARND 13Z.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AS IT
APPROACHES...A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THAT AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS INCREASED SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A WARM AND HUMID DAY AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NYC
AND URBANIZED PORTIONS OF NE NJ...WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. FOR NYC...THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 95
TODAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

GENERALLY LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE. W-WSW WINDS
AROUND 10 KT DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...10
TO 15 KT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END
AFTER SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
PROBABLE EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...GC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 311028
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
628 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN MID AND UPPER LVL CLOUDS WITH SCT SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE MVG EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ...SOUTH OF THE AREA...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK UPSTREAM TROUGH.

RADIATIONAL PATCHY GROUND FOG CONTS TO DEVELOP WEST AND NORTH OF
NYC...INCLUDING INTERIOR SW CT. DESPITE FWN / SUSSEX CO NJ
REPORTING 1/2 MILE...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE VSBYS NO LOWER
THAN 2 MILES UNTIL ARND 13Z.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AS IT
APPROACHES...A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THAT AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS INCREASED SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A WARM AND HUMID DAY AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NYC
AND URBANIZED PORTIONS OF NE NJ...WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. FOR NYC...THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 95
TODAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

GENERALLY LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE. W-WSW WINDS
AROUND 10 KT DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...10
TO 15 KT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END
AFTER SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
PROBABLE EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...GC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 311028
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
628 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN MID AND UPPER LVL CLOUDS WITH SCT SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE MVG EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ...SOUTH OF THE AREA...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK UPSTREAM TROUGH.

RADIATIONAL PATCHY GROUND FOG CONTS TO DEVELOP WEST AND NORTH OF
NYC...INCLUDING INTERIOR SW CT. DESPITE FWN / SUSSEX CO NJ
REPORTING 1/2 MILE...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE VSBYS NO LOWER
THAN 2 MILES UNTIL ARND 13Z.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AS IT
APPROACHES...A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THAT AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS INCREASED SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A WARM AND HUMID DAY AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NYC
AND URBANIZED PORTIONS OF NE NJ...WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. FOR NYC...THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 95
TODAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

GENERALLY LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE. W-WSW WINDS
AROUND 10 KT DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...10
TO 15 KT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END
AFTER SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
PROBABLE EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...GC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 311015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
615 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...HAS ALSO FORMED WITHIN SOME
VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
EASTERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VT
AND WESTERN MA. THIS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8
AND 10 AM.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 311015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
615 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...HAS ALSO FORMED WITHIN SOME
VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
EASTERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VT
AND WESTERN MA. THIS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8
AND 10 AM.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY
PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION
THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 311003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 311003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 311003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 311003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONCE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND.
SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SKIES WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z AND BCMG IFR/LIFR BY 08Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS TODAY AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBGM 310849
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
449 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING THE AREA VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING MORE CLOUD
COVER TO NE PA THAN CENTRAL NY. ALONG WITH THIS BETTER MOISTURE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
NRN PA. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 590 DM ON TUESDAY. A DRY PERIOD IS
IN STORE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BOTH TUE AND WED. WEDNESDAY, A
SHORT WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SRN PA/NRN
VA. THIS FEATURE IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS PARTS OF NE PA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RUN 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUE/WED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH THE NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS NEAR 90 ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. GENERAL THEME IS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN LIGHT NW FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-
DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER MID- LEVELS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER
588 DM AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE BY DAY
AND 10 PERCENT OR LESS AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE JUST A VERY STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ECMWF SHOWS SOME FALLING HEIGHTS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY... HOWEVER NO AGREEMENT FROM THE
GFS AND BOTTOM LINE IS THAT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 AM MONDAY UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE GONE LEAVING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. KELM HAS ALREADY FALLEN TO VLIFR BELOW FLIGHT
MINIMUMS. THIS SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL AROUND 13Z. KITH ALSO
EXPECTED TO FALL TO IFR NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
REST OF SITES SHOULD FALL TO MVFR VSBY 9 TO 12Z. ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS THE BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS
TOWARD 12Z WHICH COULD MIX IT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FOG FROM CRASHING
EVERYWHERE.

TODAY SOME VFR BROKEN CUMULUS FORMING EVERYWHERE WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS BGM/ELM/AVP. RESTRICTIONS NOT LIKELY.

THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR AGAIN.

WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING. DURING THE DAY W TO
NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS. TONIGHT AGAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...TAC



000
FXUS61 KBGM 310849
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
449 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING THE AREA VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING MORE CLOUD
COVER TO NE PA THAN CENTRAL NY. ALONG WITH THIS BETTER MOISTURE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
NRN PA. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 590 DM ON TUESDAY. A DRY PERIOD IS
IN STORE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BOTH TUE AND WED. WEDNESDAY, A
SHORT WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SRN PA/NRN
VA. THIS FEATURE IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS PARTS OF NE PA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RUN 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUE/WED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH THE NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS NEAR 90 ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. GENERAL THEME IS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN LIGHT NW FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-
DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER MID- LEVELS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER
588 DM AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE BY DAY
AND 10 PERCENT OR LESS AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE JUST A VERY STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ECMWF SHOWS SOME FALLING HEIGHTS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY... HOWEVER NO AGREEMENT FROM THE
GFS AND BOTTOM LINE IS THAT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 AM MONDAY UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE GONE LEAVING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. KELM HAS ALREADY FALLEN TO VLIFR BELOW FLIGHT
MINIMUMS. THIS SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL AROUND 13Z. KITH ALSO
EXPECTED TO FALL TO IFR NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
REST OF SITES SHOULD FALL TO MVFR VSBY 9 TO 12Z. ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS THE BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS
TOWARD 12Z WHICH COULD MIX IT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FOG FROM CRASHING
EVERYWHERE.

TODAY SOME VFR BROKEN CUMULUS FORMING EVERYWHERE WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS BGM/ELM/AVP. RESTRICTIONS NOT LIKELY.

THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR AGAIN.

WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING. DURING THE DAY W TO
NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS. TONIGHT AGAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...TAC



000
FXUS61 KBGM 310849
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
449 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING THE AREA VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING MORE CLOUD
COVER TO NE PA THAN CENTRAL NY. ALONG WITH THIS BETTER MOISTURE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
NRN PA. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 590 DM ON TUESDAY. A DRY PERIOD IS
IN STORE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BOTH TUE AND WED. WEDNESDAY, A
SHORT WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SRN PA/NRN
VA. THIS FEATURE IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS PARTS OF NE PA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RUN 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUE/WED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH THE NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS NEAR 90 ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. GENERAL THEME IS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN LIGHT NW FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-
DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER MID- LEVELS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER
588 DM AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE BY DAY
AND 10 PERCENT OR LESS AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE JUST A VERY STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ECMWF SHOWS SOME FALLING HEIGHTS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY... HOWEVER NO AGREEMENT FROM THE
GFS AND BOTTOM LINE IS THAT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 AM MONDAY UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE GONE LEAVING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. KELM HAS ALREADY FALLEN TO VLIFR BELOW FLIGHT
MINIMUMS. THIS SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL AROUND 13Z. KITH ALSO
EXPECTED TO FALL TO IFR NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
REST OF SITES SHOULD FALL TO MVFR VSBY 9 TO 12Z. ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS THE BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS
TOWARD 12Z WHICH COULD MIX IT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FOG FROM CRASHING
EVERYWHERE.

TODAY SOME VFR BROKEN CUMULUS FORMING EVERYWHERE WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS BGM/ELM/AVP. RESTRICTIONS NOT LIKELY.

THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR AGAIN.

WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING. DURING THE DAY W TO
NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS. TONIGHT AGAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...TAC




000
FXUS61 KBUF 310835
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
435 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVELS THE COMBINATION OF THE PRESENCE OF A
DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE LOWER GREAT LAKES` LOCATION ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THIS HIGH IS PLACING THE AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT...COMBINED WITH
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST SHOULD YIELD A LARGELY SUNNY AND WARM DAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...THIS WILL FEEL QUITE STICKY HOWEVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF ANY SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU
POSSIBLE INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. 850MB FLOW SHOULD RELAX AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY OVERHEAD AND THIS SHOULD BETTER FACILITATE
DECOUPLING ACROSS THE AREA. IN TURN THE RESULTANT LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH DEWPOINTS...SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
PATCHY FOG THAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING WITH FOG BEING MOST ACUTE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AS WELL AS THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REFLECT THE
HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL
EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20 WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS A
POSITIVE 1-2SD ANOMALY. THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION
OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK. SURFACE
HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE
GENESEE VALLEY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY
SLIPPING BACK INTO THE 60S.

00Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR  WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A 700MB
INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSES SOUTH
ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
WITH MODEST /POSSIBLY SURFACE BASED/ INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT WITH
LIFT...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PRESENT. FRIDAY ALSO PRESENTS A
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER END OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOCUSED INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR
AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PRESENCE OF A 15-20KT LLJ ACROSS WESTERN NY APPEARS TO HAVE THUS
FAR PREVENTED DECOUPLING SUFFICIENTLY TO HAMPER FOG FORMATION THIS
MORNING ACROSS ALL BUT THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS. HOWEVER LATEST
OBS INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO DIMINISH AT MULTIPLE
LOCATIONS AND STILL EXPECT THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED FOG
DEVELOP BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE AND WILL LEAVE TEMPO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH THIS UPDATE.

ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN
CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE
LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD



000
FXUS61 KBUF 310835
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
435 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVELS THE COMBINATION OF THE PRESENCE OF A
DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE LOWER GREAT LAKES` LOCATION ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THIS HIGH IS PLACING THE AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT...COMBINED WITH
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST SHOULD YIELD A LARGELY SUNNY AND WARM DAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...THIS WILL FEEL QUITE STICKY HOWEVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF ANY SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU
POSSIBLE INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. 850MB FLOW SHOULD RELAX AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY OVERHEAD AND THIS SHOULD BETTER FACILITATE
DECOUPLING ACROSS THE AREA. IN TURN THE RESULTANT LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH DEWPOINTS...SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
PATCHY FOG THAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING WITH FOG BEING MOST ACUTE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AS WELL AS THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REFLECT THE
HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL
EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20 WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS A
POSITIVE 1-2SD ANOMALY. THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION
OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK. SURFACE
HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE
GENESEE VALLEY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY
SLIPPING BACK INTO THE 60S.

00Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR  WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A 700MB
INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSES SOUTH
ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
WITH MODEST /POSSIBLY SURFACE BASED/ INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT WITH
LIFT...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PRESENT. FRIDAY ALSO PRESENTS A
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER END OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOCUSED INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR
AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PRESENCE OF A 15-20KT LLJ ACROSS WESTERN NY APPEARS TO HAVE THUS
FAR PREVENTED DECOUPLING SUFFICIENTLY TO HAMPER FOG FORMATION THIS
MORNING ACROSS ALL BUT THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS. HOWEVER LATEST
OBS INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO DIMINISH AT MULTIPLE
LOCATIONS AND STILL EXPECT THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED FOG
DEVELOP BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE AND WILL LEAVE TEMPO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH THIS UPDATE.

ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN
CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE
LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 310835
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
435 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVELS THE COMBINATION OF THE PRESENCE OF A
DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE LOWER GREAT LAKES` LOCATION ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THIS HIGH IS PLACING THE AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT...COMBINED WITH
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST SHOULD YIELD A LARGELY SUNNY AND WARM DAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...THIS WILL FEEL QUITE STICKY HOWEVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF ANY SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU
POSSIBLE INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. 850MB FLOW SHOULD RELAX AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY OVERHEAD AND THIS SHOULD BETTER FACILITATE
DECOUPLING ACROSS THE AREA. IN TURN THE RESULTANT LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH DEWPOINTS...SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
PATCHY FOG THAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING WITH FOG BEING MOST ACUTE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AS WELL AS THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REFLECT THE
HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL
EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20 WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS A
POSITIVE 1-2SD ANOMALY. THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION
OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK. SURFACE
HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE
GENESEE VALLEY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY
SLIPPING BACK INTO THE 60S.

00Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR  WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A 700MB
INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSES SOUTH
ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
WITH MODEST /POSSIBLY SURFACE BASED/ INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT WITH
LIFT...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PRESENT. FRIDAY ALSO PRESENTS A
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER END OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOCUSED INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR
AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PRESENCE OF A 15-20KT LLJ ACROSS WESTERN NY APPEARS TO HAVE THUS
FAR PREVENTED DECOUPLING SUFFICIENTLY TO HAMPER FOG FORMATION THIS
MORNING ACROSS ALL BUT THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS. HOWEVER LATEST
OBS INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO DIMINISH AT MULTIPLE
LOCATIONS AND STILL EXPECT THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED FOG
DEVELOP BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE AND WILL LEAVE TEMPO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH THIS UPDATE.

ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN
CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE
LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 310835
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
435 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVELS THE COMBINATION OF THE PRESENCE OF A
DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE LOWER GREAT LAKES` LOCATION ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THIS HIGH IS PLACING THE AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT...COMBINED WITH
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST SHOULD YIELD A LARGELY SUNNY AND WARM DAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...THIS WILL FEEL QUITE STICKY HOWEVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF ANY SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU
POSSIBLE INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. 850MB FLOW SHOULD RELAX AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY OVERHEAD AND THIS SHOULD BETTER FACILITATE
DECOUPLING ACROSS THE AREA. IN TURN THE RESULTANT LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH DEWPOINTS...SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
PATCHY FOG THAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING WITH FOG BEING MOST ACUTE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AS WELL AS THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REFLECT THE
HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL
EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20 WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS A
POSITIVE 1-2SD ANOMALY. THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION
OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK. SURFACE
HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE
GENESEE VALLEY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY
SLIPPING BACK INTO THE 60S.

00Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR  WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A 700MB
INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSES SOUTH
ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
WITH MODEST /POSSIBLY SURFACE BASED/ INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT WITH
LIFT...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PRESENT. FRIDAY ALSO PRESENTS A
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER END OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOCUSED INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR
AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PRESENCE OF A 15-20KT LLJ ACROSS WESTERN NY APPEARS TO HAVE THUS
FAR PREVENTED DECOUPLING SUFFICIENTLY TO HAMPER FOG FORMATION THIS
MORNING ACROSS ALL BUT THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS. HOWEVER LATEST
OBS INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO DIMINISH AT MULTIPLE
LOCATIONS AND STILL EXPECT THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED FOG
DEVELOP BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE AND WILL LEAVE TEMPO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH THIS UPDATE.

ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN
CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE
LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD



000
FXUS61 KOKX 310830
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
430 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
SFC TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP WITH ITS PASSAGE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT TAPERED OFF...AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
THROUGH THE REGION DRY. ANY PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AS IT
APPROACHES...A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THAT AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS INCREASED SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A WARM AND HUMID DAY AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NYC
AND URBANIZED PORTIONS OF NE NJ...WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. FOR NYC...THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 95
TODAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

GENERALLY LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE. W-WSW WINDS
AROUND 10 KT DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...10
TO 15 KT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END
AFTER SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
PROBABLE EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 310830
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
430 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
SFC TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP WITH ITS PASSAGE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT TAPERED OFF...AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
THROUGH THE REGION DRY. ANY PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AS IT
APPROACHES...A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THAT AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS INCREASED SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A WARM AND HUMID DAY AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NYC
AND URBANIZED PORTIONS OF NE NJ...WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. FOR NYC...THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 95
TODAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA...SO WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...
GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS DROP A BIT ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT WILL STILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COASTS ON TUESDAY AS SFC
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 95 ON TUESDAY IN NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE AS AIR QUALITY DECREASES UNDER A STAGNANT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHO NOT IN THE LATEST FCST...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSTM WED AFTN AND EVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DAY TIME
THERMAL TROUGH.

DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

LATE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEF INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCT TSTMS
MAINLY THU AFTN - EVE. FCST A POP OF 20 PCT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARITIME POLAR AIR ON EAST WINDS REPLACES
THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

GENERALLY LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE. W-WSW WINDS
AROUND 10 KT DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...10
TO 15 KT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS. GUSTS END
AFTER SUNSET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE LIKELY STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL...WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR IT TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
PROBABLE EACH AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS... BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS THROUGH THU.

LATE THU-THU NIGHT...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRI...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THU AFTN-EARLY FRI...WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1/4 INCH RAIN.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...GC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GC/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 310817
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
417 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE AT THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SKIES WILL BECOME
SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS ON
MONDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 310817
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
417 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE AT THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SKIES WILL BECOME
SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS ON
MONDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 310817
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
417 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE AT THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SKIES WILL BECOME
SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS ON
MONDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 310817
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
417 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

WE EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...BEFORE THINNING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING.

THEN...FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SKIES TO VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...AS CU/STRATO-CU FORM.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVENTUALLY...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD...WE
EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM THESE
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CAPPING AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING. SO...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME...BUT RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE
ANY OF THE BUILDING CU CAN GROW TALL ENOUGH AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS 850-700 MB WINDS
STRENGTHEN BETWEEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS MIXING DEEPENS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
INTO THE 10-20 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS NEARING 90 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
ASSUMING THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART SOON ENOUGH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
MAINLY LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS ON TUE...WITH
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON WED...REACHING AROUND 90 FOR VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 85-90 TUE...AND 90-95 ON WED.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANY CONVECTION
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
LATE TONIGHT AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE AT THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SKIES WILL BECOME
SKC THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL/KPSF AROUND 03Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W AT 8-15 KTS ON
MONDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...BUT SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 25 COULD
OCCUR...ESP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-5O PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THU AND
FRI...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TUE NT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31...
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 1...
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 2...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 3...
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953

SEPTEMBER 4...
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310816
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
416 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY..500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BUT INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL REINFORCE DRY
WEATHER AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THEREFORE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES. THE PROXIMITY
OF THIS TROUGH WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON...AT 10-15 KTS. OTHERWISE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST
OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY AS A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALLEY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES BEHIND
BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR LATER NEXT WEEKEND
WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER
TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
OVERNIGHT....ESPECIALLY FROM 08-12Z. CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND
5 KNOTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR
MAINLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310816
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
416 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY..500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BUT INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL REINFORCE DRY
WEATHER AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THEREFORE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES. THE PROXIMITY
OF THIS TROUGH WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON...AT 10-15 KTS. OTHERWISE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST
OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY AS A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALLEY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES BEHIND
BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR LATER NEXT WEEKEND
WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER
TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
OVERNIGHT....ESPECIALLY FROM 08-12Z. CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND
5 KNOTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR
MAINLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310816
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
416 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY..500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BUT INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL REINFORCE DRY
WEATHER AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THEREFORE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES. THE PROXIMITY
OF THIS TROUGH WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON...AT 10-15 KTS. OTHERWISE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST
OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY AS A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALLEY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES BEHIND
BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR LATER NEXT WEEKEND
WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER
TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
OVERNIGHT....ESPECIALLY FROM 08-12Z. CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND
5 KNOTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR
MAINLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310816
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
416 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY..500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BUT INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL REINFORCE DRY
WEATHER AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THEREFORE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES. THE PROXIMITY
OF THIS TROUGH WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON...AT 10-15 KTS. OTHERWISE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST
OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY AS A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALLEY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES BEHIND
BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR LATER NEXT WEEKEND
WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER
TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
OVERNIGHT....ESPECIALLY FROM 08-12Z. CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND
5 KNOTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR
MAINLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310816
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
416 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY..500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BUT INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL REINFORCE DRY
WEATHER AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THEREFORE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES. THE PROXIMITY
OF THIS TROUGH WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON...AT 10-15 KTS. OTHERWISE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST
OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY AS A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALLEY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES BEHIND
BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR LATER NEXT WEEKEND
WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER
TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
OVERNIGHT....ESPECIALLY FROM 08-12Z. CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND
5 KNOTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR
MAINLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310816
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
416 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY..500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BUT INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL REINFORCE DRY
WEATHER AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THEREFORE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES. THE PROXIMITY
OF THIS TROUGH WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON...AT 10-15 KTS. OTHERWISE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST
OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ON THURSDAY AS A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALLEY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. 850 MB TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES BEHIND
BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ALSO A BIT LOWER FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TEMP PROFILES WARMER ONCE AGAIN FOR LATER NEXT WEEKEND
WHEN VALLEY HIGHS MAY APPROACH 90. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER HIGHER
TERRAIN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
OVERNIGHT....ESPECIALLY FROM 08-12Z. CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND
5 KNOTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR
MAINLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 310808
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
408 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY..500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BUT INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL REINFORCE DRY
WEATHER AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THEREFORE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES. THE PROXIMITY
OF THIS TROUGH WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON...AT 10-15 KTS. OTHERWISE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST
OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
OVERNIGHT....ESPECIALLY FROM 08-12Z. CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND
5 KNOTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR
MAINLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310808
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
408 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY..500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BUT INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL REINFORCE DRY
WEATHER AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THEREFORE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES. THE PROXIMITY
OF THIS TROUGH WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON...AT 10-15 KTS. OTHERWISE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST
OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
OVERNIGHT....ESPECIALLY FROM 08-12Z. CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND
5 KNOTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR
MAINLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310808
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
408 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVE