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000
FXUS61 KBUF 030613
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY
PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRIER WEATHER. A RETURN TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A WEALTH OF CLOUD COVER THAT IS NOW
RETREATING TO THE EAST AT 06Z. BENEATH THIS DECK OF CLOUDS,
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LINGERING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WITH CLEARING NOW OVER THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP
DUE TO INCREASED RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL
SETTLE INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SRN TIER AND EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

AFTER SUNRISE...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BOARDER. THESE
FEATURES ARE LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT OTHER THAN TO
INTRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BEST SUPPORT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION LIKELY KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LOWER LAKES WITH DRY COOL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH TEMPS
PEAKING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE A RATHER POTENT UPPER PV ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH COMPACT UPPER JET STREAK/UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABOVE AND SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL SUPPORTS INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS. HOWEVER GIVEN DYNAMICS
OF THIS SYSTEM AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUSPECT
THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE OVERHEAD AND STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
SETTING UP ACROSS REGION. BASED ON TIMING OF THESE FEATURES SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABLY
REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES AND SURFACE HIGHS/LOWS... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR DELMARVA ON FRIDAY WILL WEAKEN...DRIFT
OFFSHORE OR A LITTLE NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THEN BY EARLY SUNDAY
WILL EVENTUALLY BE EJECTED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM BY AN
APPROACHING AND STRONGER UPPER WAVE. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT ONLY THE COASTAL REGION FROM
CHESAPEAKE BAY TO NEW ENGLAND...AND SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE
EAST TO HAVE NO EFFECT ON WESTERN OR NORTHERN NY.

UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE COASTAL CUTOFF AND THE MORE NORTHERN
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE STRETCHED AND
PHASING INTO A STATIONARY FRONT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL STILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE BUT
SMALLER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAIL THE FRONT AND IMPLIES SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUS WILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE NEW WORKWEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE RATHER MILD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH MID 60S ON FRIDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON
SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KBUF/KIAG/KROC EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER
CLEARING SKIES WITH IFR OR LOWER AT KJHW/KART IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CLOSELY FOLLOWED THE LAMP GUIDANCE WHICH IS
HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION VERY WELL. EXPECT DENSE FOG TO
LINGER AT KART THROUGH MID-MORNING WITH IFR CIGS FOR KJHW TIL ABOUT
11/12Z.

ON TUESDAY...DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT ANY
IFR/MVFR CIGS DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. VFR IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR MOST SITES TONIGHT. LAMP GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT A CHANCE FOR IFR VIS AGAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOTIER
AND AT KART WHICH WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY
AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION. THE WEATHER
PATTERN AGAIN TURNS UNSETTLED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK BUT WINDS AND
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/SMITH
NEAR TERM...RSH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...RSH/SMITH
MARINE...RSH/SMITH



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000
FXUS61 KBTV 030610
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
210 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES OFF AND ON FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 210 AM EDT TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE. DENSE
FOG HAS FORMED IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG
OVER VT UNDER A THICK LAYER OF STRATUS WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNRISE. WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECTING CLOUDS TO SLOWLY RISE AND
BREAK UP MID TO LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON, SLOWEST TO CLEAR
IN VT WITH WEAK BLOCKED UPSLOPE N-NW FLOW.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHERLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
OTHERWISE NEAR CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

TODAY A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN VERMONT
ZONES AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE
SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...GOING WITH A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE PERIOD. AREA WILL BE IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW/MID
LEVELS AS A LONG WAVE TROF DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE, THE
REGION WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WEAK RIDGING. THUS LOOKING AT RATHER
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MODELS ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOME OF THE
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWEST 6000FT OR SO ON WEDNESDAY MEANS
ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT IN. END RESULT -- A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. NO STRONG FORCING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS EVEN A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT
IN A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS. STICKING WITH THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE, HAVE
PAINTED IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. COULD BE A SMIDGE COOLER IN
EASTERN SECTIONS THANKS TO THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC
AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR, AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS DIVERGE MUCH
MORE COME SUNDAY. THE QUICK SUMMARY IS THAT WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
SHOWERS ABOUT THURSDAY & FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD BE AN OUTSTANDING
SPRING DAY, BUT SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH FOR SUNDAY. COULD BE A BIT COOL AND BREEZY FOR MONDAY.

I`LL JUST TAKE IT DAY BY DAY FOR EXTRA DETAILS:

THURSDAY: UPPER TROF WILL BE DIGGING PRETTY FAR SOUTH DURING THE
DAY, AND BEGINNING TO CUT-OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. FOR OUR AREA, WE`LL BE STUCK IN A FAIRLY MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW SINCE WE`LL BE NORTH OF THE CUT-OFF. DESPITE THAT, THE
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD (AROUND 10C), SO EVEN
WITH NOT MUCH SUN EXPECTED, WE`LL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S AGAIN.  LOTS OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS.

FRIDAY: CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS TO A POSITION OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW, HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PULLED IN
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW (AND RELATED SURFACE LOW). COULD ACTUALLY
SEE SOME SUN ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS. 925MB TEMPERATURES A
BIT WARMER (10-12C). COULD BE PUSHING 70F IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY,
WHERE I WENT A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE LOTS OF 60S. COULD
STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN SECTIONS AT SOME POINT IN
THE DAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH THE GUIDANCE BLEND TO SHOW SOME 25-35%
POPS IN THOSE AREAS.

SATURDAY: STILL HAVE THE CUT-OFF LOW WOBBLING ABOUT SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE IN IT`S LOCATION, BUT THINKING IT
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT WE`LL BE THE EXCEPTION FOR THE
NORTHEAST AND SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND ADVECTS IN SOME FAIRLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. 925MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 13-15C
RANGE, WHICH UNDER FULL SUN MEANS TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. AT
THIS POINT, MANY OF GUIDANCE OUTPUTS AREN`T THAT WARM, SO HAVE
GENERALLY GONE 3 TO 5F ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BLEND FOR HIGHS. IN THESE
KINDS OF SITUATIONS, COASTAL NEW ENGLAND CAN BE COOL/CLOUDY/DRIZZLY
WITH THE ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW, WHILE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IT`S
THE TOTAL OPPOSITE. TYPICALLY HAPPENS A FEW TIMES EACH SPRING -- AND
I THINK THIS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE CASES.  IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THAT
COOLER/MOIST AIR COULD SNEAK INTO SOUTHEAST VERMONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PRIMARY
MODELS, BUT THE NET RESULT WILL BE A NOTICEABLE COOL-DOWN. THE GFS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 3-5C, WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. THE EURO IS NOT AS COLD, OWING TO
IT`S SLOWER TIMING OF BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN. STUCK WITH A BLEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. OTHER THING OF NOTE, AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY. EVEN THOUGH THE
FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE OVERNIGHT, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF T-STORMS FOR SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

MONDAY: FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW MEANING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS TO
EXACTLY HOW CHILLY THE AIR WILL BE, SO TOOK THE BLEND. UPPER 50S
(NORTH) TO LOW 60S (SOUTH) SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. COULD
ALSO BE FAIRLY BREEZY/GUSTY AS 850MB FLOW IS 30 TO 40KNOTS AND WITH
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN, WE SHOULD HAVE A FAIRLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WHICH COULD TAP INTO SOME OF THOSE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR CEILINGS THROUGH MID-TUESDAY
AM, GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING UP TO MAINLY VFR BY TUESDAY
PM. LIFR AT KMSS THROUGH SUNRISE THEN BECOMING VFR BY MID
MORNING.

EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WINDS LIGHT
NORTHERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO ESPECIALLY KBTV BUT NEAR CALM
ELSEWHERE.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WHEN LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS WHICH
WOULD THEN LIFT THE CEILINGS TOWARD VFR, ROUGHLY FROM 14 TO 18Z.
TAFS SHOW MVFR DECK LIFTING TO VFR IN 15-16Z PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT.

AFTER SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TUE EVENING SOME CLOUDS RETURN
OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME MVFR STRATUS ESP AT KMPV AND KSLK BY
WED MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SE AND ADVECTS SOME
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY
BREAK.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED: MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS W/UPPER TROF.
THU-SAT: MAINLY VFR BUT CHC MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE COAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...SISSON



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000
FXUS61 KOKX 030604
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
204 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-
STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER IS ON TAP AS AN UPPER
TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID
WEEK. PRECEDING THIS TROF...WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE...THE FIRST OF WHICH TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT TO JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MORNING. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT..ALBEIT THERE ARE SOME
SMALL TIMING ISSUES...FOR A DECENT BANDED RAIN EVENT LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COUPLED WITH A VORTICITY
MAXIMUM APPROACHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE ABOUT HALF
TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
LONG ISLAND. THE RAIN WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SW TO NE
WITH ABOUT A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO START ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IN ADDITION...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG CONTINUES
TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING RAIN.

DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE SMALL THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD OVER AND NE FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATE RAIN WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY. GENERALLY THOUGH LOOKING AT LOW RAIN CHANCES BY
AFTERNOON WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PASSING WELL TO THE
EAST AND ONLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH A EVEN A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

ONCE AGAIN...DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE SMALL...WITH HIGHS TUE
IN THE 50S...WITH LOWS TUE NIGHT ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER. THIS
WILL EQUATE TO WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THE REGARDING CUTOFF LOW THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY TRACKS SE TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO
SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE COAST ON SATURDAY AS A NEW NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS ON SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THERE IS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES EXIST IN ANY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
DEVELOPS ON A STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE
DEPICTED WITH THE LATEST MODELS WHICH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH THE
DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HAVE ALSO ELECTED TO REMAIN PERSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GENERALLY CHANCE POPS. TIMING ENERGY
WITHING THE CUTOFF LOW REMAINS DIFFICULT. IT WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE
WASH OUT...BUT PERIODS OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME. THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE SIGNALING THAT FRIDAY MAY BE
THE DAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THIS IS WHEN THE CUTOFF LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NE TOWARDS THE AREA AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SHOW A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...POPS INCREASE BACK TO CHANCE.

AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...BUT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS STILL DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES COULD COME CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY TRACK S OF LONG
ISLAND INTO TONIGHT.

IFR DEVELOPS AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS STEADY LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN MOVE IN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AROUND
MIDDAY. FOR NOW MAINTAIN MVFR THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD...EXCEPT AT KHPN WHERE IFR SHOULD RETURN AROUND 00Z.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING FOR ALL BUT KHPN.

CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME NE-ENE AROUND 10 KT AROUND
12Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...MVFR LIKELY...WITH IFR IN FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
RAIN/FOG/STRATUS. NE WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUE WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF SEAS AROUND 5 FT LATE TUE AFT/EARLY EVE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE
OF AN SCA. NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUE
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ON ALL COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO WINDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OCEAN SEAS MAY COME
CLOSE TO 5 FT AT TIMES WITH A PERSISTENT SE SWELL...MAINLY ON THE
WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO AN INCH IS FORECAST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
FALL ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WITH THE LOWER END BEING
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MINOR
NUISANCE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGHEST SPRING TIDE OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING WITH THE NEW
MOON ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES WED INTO FRI...AND LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

PERIODIC NE FLOW IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES WILL PREDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING...BUT THE THREAT IS THERE PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND/QUEENS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FEB/DW/DS
NEAR TERM...FEB/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...DW/DS
HYDROLOGY...DW/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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000
FXUS61 KBGM 030602
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
202 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COOL AIR AND SHOWERS IN THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
935 PM UPDATE...NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN MOVING INTO EXTREME
SOUTHERN PA ATTM. THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS NE PA PRIMARILY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO DELAY THE ONSET OF NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISC...
THIS AFTN/S WV IS EXITING TO THE EAST ATTM
ALLOWING A BUBBLE SFC HIPRES TO BLD INTO THE AREA. OLD TROF
LINE/FNT REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE SE ZONES AND MAY FOCUS A FEW
SHWRS OVER THAT AREA THRU THE NGT. NOTHING STRONG ENUF TO DRY OUT
THE MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INV SO XPCT CLDS...DRIZZLE...AND
PTCHY FOG TO CONT OVRNGT.

LATE TNGT...YET ANOTHER WV RUNS UP THE BNDRY AND SHD INCRS THE
CVRG OF SHWRS OVER THE SERN ZONES AFT MIDN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SW FLOW CONTS THRU THE SHRT TERM WITH A LRG UPR TROF DIGGING OVER
THE CNTRL LAKES. THIS WILL CONT THE UNSETTLED WX AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NEWRD ACROSS THE AREA. OLD FNTL BBNDRY DRIFTS SLOWLY TO
THE SE AND SHD BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER CONV BASED PCPN WITH A
DEEP SWLY ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE OPEN GULF.

OVER THE FCST AREA...FRCG IS WEAKER BUT PLENTY OF AVBL MOISTURE
UNDER THE UPR LOW WHICH PROVIDED INSTABILITY WITH IT/S COLD POOL.
SO...XPCT SCT SHWRS TO CONT THRU THE PD WITH NO STRONG SFC OR UPR
FEATURES TO TRIGGER ENHANCED PD OF PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS AGREE THAT A MEAN TROF / BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEK. EVEN AS THE CYCLONE FINALLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY, ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL ROTATE TOWARD
WESTERN NY.

THE RESULT WILL BE A GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY FORECAST, WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROMISING DAY
FOR NICE, MAY- LIKE WEATHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WITH RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TAF SITES.
OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR TO FUEL ALTERNATE MVFR CIGS
EXCEPT IFR LIKELY FOR KITH/KBGM. ALSO, EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
FOR KAVP.

CIGS LIFT FOR TUESDAY WITH SKIES GENERALLY REMAINING BROKEN TO OVERCAST.
EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO PERSIST FOR KAVP WITH KBGM LIFTING TO
MVFR. REMAINING SITES SEE VFR BY AFTERNOON.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DJP/PCF
AVIATION...PCF



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000
FXUS61 KALY 030546
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOP FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 132 AM EDT...THE LATEST KENX AND REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE A
QUICKER RETURN OF RAIN AND MOISTURE FROM THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE SE PA/MD CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...AND ALONG THE FRONTAL
AXIS. THE TRENDS FROM THE LATEST HRRR IS FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE RAINFALL TO GET TO THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES THIS
MORNING /08-11Z/. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE USED...EXCEPT OVER THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE CATEGORICAL VALUES WERE USED. A
QUICK QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR OVER THE
SE EXTREME OF THE AREA.

MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND U40S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S AND L40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM MOST AREAS FROM SARATOGA
SPRINGS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL
MOST LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE CENTRAL BERKSHIRES
AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WAVE IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...LEAVING MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RAIN ENDING...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESP IN AREAS WHERE A
STEADY RAIN OCCURS IN THE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION...WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS
THE RAIN ENDS EARLIER...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT GREATER...ESP NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRANSLATE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SO...HAVE INDICATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION...THEREFORE REDUCING
CHANCES OF STEADY RAIN ON THU. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TO REFINE POPS JUST YET. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE COOLER SHOULD ANY AREAS OF STEADIER RAINFALL
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
DRYNESS INTERSPERSED.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND EVEN MILDER READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S.  A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR THE DELMARVA WILL BRING
ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE AND RAIN NORTHWARD TO JUST ABOUT KALB
THIS MORNING. SO EXPECTING STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS FOR KPOU AND KPSF...WITH KALB
RIGHT ON THE EDGE. RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF KGFL. STEADY
RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR...LIKELY
DETERIORATING TO PREVAILING IFR BY AROUND 08Z OR 09Z...EXCEPT AT
KGFL WHERE ONLY OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS CIGS RISE TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT IFR CIGS COULD LINGER
AT KPSF MUCH OF THE DAY. VSBYS SHOULD BE MUCH IMPROVED FROM MID
MORNING ON.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY N-NW AROUND 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE 24
HOUR PERIOD ENDING 06Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF UP TO ONE
HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AS FAR N AND W AS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND SOUTHERN VT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS FROM LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING MAINLY RANGED FROM
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS DID
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. DESPITE
THESE AMTS...ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
ABSORPTION BY GROWING VEGETATION RESULTED IN MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
RIVERS/STREAMS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. LITTLE
IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...THESE AMTS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL...IF
ANY IMPACTS ON RIVERS/STREAMS.

MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 030532
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
132 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOP FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 132 AM EDT...THE LATEST KENX AND REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE A
QUICKER RETURN OF RAIN AND MOISTURE FROM THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE SE PA/MD CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...AND ALONG THE FRONTAL
AXIS. THE TRENDS FROM THE LATEST HRRR IS FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE RAINFALL TO GET TO THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES THIS
MORNING /08-11Z/. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE USED...EXCEPT OVER THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE CATEGORICAL VALUES WERE USED. A
QUICK QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR OVER THE
SE EXTREME OF THE AREA.

MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND U40S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S AND L40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM MOST AREAS FROM SARATOGA
SPRINGS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL
MOST LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE CENTRAL BERKSHIRES
AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WAVE IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...LEAVING MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RAIN ENDING...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESP IN AREAS WHERE A
STEADY RAIN OCCURS IN THE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION...WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS
THE RAIN ENDS EARLIER...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT GREATER...ESP NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRANSLATE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SO...HAVE INDICATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION...THEREFORE REDUCING
CHANCES OF STEADY RAIN ON THU. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TO REFINE POPS JUST YET. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE COOLER SHOULD ANY AREAS OF STEADIER RAINFALL
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
DRYNESS INTERSPERSED.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND EVEN MILDER READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S.  A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS HAVE THINNED
IN SOME AREAS WHILE REMAINING OVERCAST AND IFR IN OTHERS. HAVE
GENERALLY TRENDED THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO NOT ONLY REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS BUT A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN MOVING IN AT KPOU LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE. IT
WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY TO SEE REAL IMPROVEMENT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 21Z TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF UP TO ONE
HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AS FAR N AND W AS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND SOUTHERN VT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS FROM LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING MAINLY RANGED FROM
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS DID
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. DESPITE
THESE AMTS...ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
ABSORPTION BY GROWING VEGETATION RESULTED IN MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
RIVERS/STREAMS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. LITTLE
IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...THESE AMTS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL...IF
ANY IMPACTS ON RIVERS/STREAMS.

MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBGM 030531
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
131 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COOL AIR AND SHOWERS IN THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
935 PM UPDATE...NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN MOVING INTO EXTREME
SOUTHERN PA ATTM. THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS NE PA PRIMARILY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO DELAY THE ONSET OF NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISC...
THIS AFTN/S WV IS EXITING TO THE EAST ATTM
ALLOWING A BUBBLE SFC HIPRES TO BLD INTO THE AREA. OLD TROF
LINE/FNT REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE SE ZONES AND MAY FOCUS A FEW
SHWRS OVER THAT AREA THRU THE NGT. NOTHING STRONG ENUF TO DRY OUT
THE MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INV SO XPCT CLDS...DRIZZLE...AND
PTCHY FOG TO CONT OVRNGT.

LATE TNGT...YET ANOTHER WV RUNS UP THE BNDRY AND SHD INCRS THE
CVRG OF SHWRS OVER THE SERN ZONES AFT MIDN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SW FLOW CONTS THRU THE SHRT TERM WITH A LRG UPR TROF DIGGING OVER
THE CNTRL LAKES. THIS WILL CONT THE UNSETTLED WX AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NEWRD ACROSS THE AREA. OLD FNTL BBNDRY DRIFTS SLOWLY TO
THE SE AND SHD BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER CONV BASED PCPN WITH A
DEEP SWLY ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE OPEN GULF.

OVER THE FCST AREA...FRCG IS WEAKER BUT PLENTY OF AVBL MOISTURE
UNDER THE UPR LOW WHICH PROVIDED INSTABILITY WITH IT/S COLD POOL.
SO...XPCT SCT SHWRS TO CONT THRU THE PD WITH NO STRONG SFC OR UPR
FEATURES TO TRIGGER ENHANCED PD OF PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
105 PM UPDATE...

MODELS AGREE THAT A MEAN TROF / BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEK. EVEN AS THE CYCLONE FINALLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY, ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL ROTATE TOWARD
WESTERN NY.

THE RESULT WILL BE A COOL AND SHOWERY FORECAST, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROMISING DAY FOR NICE, MAY-
LIKE WEATHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WITH RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TAF SITES.
OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR TO FUEL ALTERNATE MVFR CIGS
EXCEPT IFR LIKELY FOR KITH/KBGM. ALSO, EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
FOR KAVP.

CIGS LIFT FOR TUESDAY WITH SKIES GENERALLY REMAINING BROKEN TO OVERCAST.
EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO PERSIST FOR KAVP WITH KBGM LIFTING TO
MVFR. REMAINING SITES SEE VFR BY AFTERNOON.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PCF




000
FXUS61 KBUF 030240
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1040 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...
PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. MORE UNSETTLE
WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVED ACROSS THE STATE EARLIER TODAY...
AND THIS FEATURE HELPED TO GENERATE A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF SOAKING RAIN.
WHILE THAT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING AWAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...
A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ARND 5K FT WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE NIGHT. EVEN IF THERE WERE SOME CLEARING...IT WOULD
LIKELY BE VERY TEMPORARY AS RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A MOIST SFC
WOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE LOW CLOUDS. LOCALIZED UPSLOPE
FLOW WOULD ALSO FAVOR MORE CLOUD COVER. AT LEAST DRIER AIR IN THE
MID LEVEL WOULD KEEP THE NIGHT PCPN FREE. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE
INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SRN TIER AND EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

TUESDAY...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG A STALL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BOARDER. THESE FEATURES ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT OTHER TO INTRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BEST SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
LIKELY KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER
LAKES WITH DRY COOL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE A RATHER POTENT UPPER PV ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH COMPACT UPPER JET STREAK/UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABOVE AND SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL SUPPORTS INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS. HOWEVER GIVEN DYNAMICS
OF THIS SYSTEM AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUSPECT
THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE OVERHEAD AND STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
SETTING UP ACROSS REGION. BASED ON TIMING OF THESE FEATURES SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABLY
REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES AND SURFACE HIGHS/LOWS... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR DELMARVA ON FRIDAY WILL WEAKEN...DRIFT
OFFSHORE OR A LITTLE NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THEN BY EARLY SUNDAY
WILL EVENTUALLY BE EJECTED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM BY AN
APPROACHING AND STRONGER UPPER WAVE. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT ONLY THE COASTAL REGION FROM
CHESAPEAKE BAY TO NEW ENGLAND...AND SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE
EAST TO HAVE NO EFFECT ON WESTERN OR NORTHERN NY.

UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE COASTAL CUTOFF AND THE MORE NORTHERN
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE STRETCHED AND
PHASING INTO A STATIONARY FRONT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL STILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE BUT
SMALLER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAIL THE FRONT AND IMPLIES SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUS WILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE NEW WORKWEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE RATHER MILD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH MID 60S ON FRIDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON
SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 09Z. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND PARTS OF THE FINGER LAKES
WHERE IFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT ANY
IFR/MVFR CIGS DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION ON BOTH
LAKES TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/RSH
NEAR TERM...AR/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...AR/RSH




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030225
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1025 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-
STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER IS ON TAP AS AN UPPER
TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID
WEEK. PRECEDING THIS TROF...WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE...THE FIRST OF WHICH TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT TO JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MORNING. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT..ALBEIT THERE ARE SOME
SMALL TIMING ISSUES...FOR A DECENT BANDED RAIN EVENT LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COUPLED WITH A VORT
APPROACHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE ABOUT HALF TO ONE
INCH OF RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS LI. THE
RAIN WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SW TO NE WITH ABOUT A 3 TO 5
HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO START ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IN ADDITION...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG CONTINUES
TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING RAIN.

DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE SMALL THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD OVER AND NE FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE RAIN WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY. GENERALLY THOUGH LOOKING AT LOW RAIN CHANCES BY
AFTERNOON WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PASSING WELL TO THE
EAST AND ONLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH A EVEN A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

ONCE AGAIN...DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE SMALL...WITH HIGHS TUE
IN THE 50S...WITH LOWS TUE NIGHT ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER. THIS
WILL EQUATE TO WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THE REGARDING CUTOFF LOW THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY TRACKS SE TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO
SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE COAST ON SATURDAY AS A NEW NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS ON SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THERE IS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES EXIST IN ANY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
DEVELOPS ON A STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE
DEPICTED WITH THE LATEST MODELS WHICH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH THE
DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HAVE ALSO ELECTED TO REMAIN PERSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GENERALLY CHANCE POPS. TIMING ENERGY
WITHING THE CUTOFF LOW REMAINS DIFFICULT. IT WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE
WASH OUT...BUT PERIODS OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME. THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE SIGNALING THAT FRIDAY MAY BE
THE DAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THIS IS WHEN THE CUTOFF LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NE TOWARDS THE AREA AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SHOW A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...POPS INCREASE BACK TO CHANCE.

AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...BUT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS STILL DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES COULD COME CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC APPROACHES NY AIRSPACE
TONIGHT...AND WILL TRACK SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KJFK/KISP/KGON BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN THIS
EVENING...AS THIS HAS BEEN NOTED ALONG THE NJ COAST AND EASTERN
LI.

OTHERWISE...RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z
TONIGHT...WITH CIGS/VSBY DROPPING BACK TO MVFR...THEN IFR/LIFR.
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC/NJ METRO AND LI
TERMINALS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/TIMING TO PUT
EXPLICIT THUNDER IN TAFS. RA/TSRA ENDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z FROM
SW TO NE.

CIGS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TO MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH VSBY LIKELY IMPROVING QUICKER TO MVFR
THEN VFR THROUGH THE MORNING. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LOW PROB OF IFR CIGS HOLDING ON THROUGH
THE DAY...AND ON THE FLIP SIDE THERE IS A LOW PROB OF VFR CIGS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON.

LGT/VRB WINDS THIS EVENING...BECOME NE 8-12 KT LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO TUE AFT...POSSIBLY VEERING SE LATE TUE FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDS LIKELY. IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN
RAIN/FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SEAS AROUND 5 FT LATE TUE AFT/EARLY EVE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE
OF AN SCA. NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUE
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ON ALL COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO WINDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OCEAN SEAS MAY COME
CLOSE TO 5 FT AT TIMES WITH A PERSISTENT SE SWELL...MAINLY ON THE
WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO AN INCH IS FORECAST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
FALL ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WITH THE LOWER END BEING
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MINOR
NUISANCE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGHEST SPRING TIDE OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING WITH THE NEW
MOON ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES WED INTO FRI...AND LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

PERIODIC NE FLOW IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES WILL PREDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING...BUT THE THREAT IS THERE PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LI/QUEENS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FEB/DS/DW
NEAR TERM...FEB/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 030224
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1024 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1021 PM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE TEMPS AND
MATCH CURRENT OBS. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT DRIZZLE
AT NEWPORT AND CALEDONIA AIRPORT...WITH SOME MIST AT SLK. THINKING
AREAS OF DRIZZLE...MIST...AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL. SOUNDINGS SHOW LOTS OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS...SO AREAS OF
FOG/BR LOOK REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NY. STILL
ANTICIPATING TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S DACKS TO MID 40S
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL
HAVE SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY 00Z THIS EVENING MOST OF
RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF VERMONT WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
BLOCKED LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW. NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT QPF
IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. MAY HAVE SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH A FEW COLDER SPOTS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 20S AND SOME WARMER SPOTS REACHING THE LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN
VERMONT ZONES AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE
SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...GOING WITH A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE PERIOD. AREA WILL BE IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW/MID
LEVELS AS A LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE, THE
REGION WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WEAK RIDGING. THUS LOOKING AT RATHER
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MODELS ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOME OF THE
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWEST 6000FT OR SO ON WEDNESDAY MEANS
ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT IN. END RESULT -- A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. NO STRONG FORCING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS EVEN A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT
IN A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS. STICKING WITH THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE, HAVE
PAINTED IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. COULD BE A SMIDGE COOLER IN
EASTERN SECTIONS THANKS TO THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC
AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR, AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS DIVERGE MUCH
MORE COME SUNDAY. THE QUICK SUMMARY IS THAT WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
SHOWERS ABOUT THURSDAY & FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD BE AN OUTSTANDING
SPRING DAY, BUT SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH FOR SUNDAY. COULD BE A BIT COOL AND BREEZY FOR MONDAY.

I`LL JUST TAKE IT DAY BY DAY FOR EXTRA DETAILS:

THURSDAY: UPPER TROF WILL BE DIGGING PRETTY FAR SOUTH DURING THE
DAY, AND BEGINNING TO CUT-OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. FOR OUR AREA, WE`LL BE STUCK IN A FAIRLY MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW SINCE WE`LL BE NORTH OF THE CUT-OFF. DESPITE THAT, THE
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD (AROUND 10C), SO EVEN
WITH NOT MUCH SUN EXPECTED, WE`LL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S AGAIN.  LOTS OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS.

FRIDAY: CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS TO A POSITION OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW, HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PULLED IN
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW (AND RELATED SURFACE LOW). COULD ACTUALLY
SEE SOME SUN ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS. 925MB TEMPERATURES A
BIT WARMER (10-12C). COULD BE PUSHING 70F IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY,
WHERE I WENT A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE LOTS OF 60S. COULD
STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN SECTIONS AT SOME POINT IN
THE DAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH THE GUIDANCE BLEND TO SHOW SOME 25-35%
POPS IN THOSE AREAS.

SATURDAY: STILL HAVE THE CUT-OFF LOW WOBBLING ABOUT SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE IN IT`S LOCATION, BUT THINKING IT
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT WE`LL BE THE EXCEPTION FOR THE
NORTHEAST AND SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND ADVECTS IN SOME FAIRLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. 925MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 13-15C
RANGE, WHICH UNDER FULL SUN MEANS TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. AT
THIS POINT, MANY OF GUIDANCE OUTPUTS AREN`T THAT WARM, SO HAVE
GENERALLY GONE 3 TO 5F ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BLEND FOR HIGHS. IN THESE
KINDS OF SITUATIONS, COASTAL NEW ENGLAND CAN BE COOL/CLOUDY/DRIZZLY
WITH THE ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW, WHILE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IT`S
THE TOTAL OPPOSITE. TYPICALLY HAPPENS A FEW TIMES EACH SPRING -- AND
I THINK THIS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE CASES.  IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THAT
COOLER/MOIST AIR COULD SNEAK INTO SOUTHEAST VERMONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PRIMARY
MODELS, BUT THE NET RESULT WILL BE A NOTICEABLE COOL-DOWN. THE GFS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 3-5C, WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. THE EURO IS NOT AS COLD, OWING TO
IT`S SLOWER TIMING OF BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN. STUCK WITH A BLEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. OTHER THING OF NOTE, AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY. EVEN THOUGH THE
FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE OVERNIGHT, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF T-STORMS FOR SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

MONDAY: FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW MEANING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS TO
EXACTLY HOW CHILLY THE AIR WILL BE, SO TOOK THE BLEND. UPPER 50S
(NORTH) TO LOW 60S (SOUTH) SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. COULD
ALSO BE FAIRLY BREEZY/GUSTY AS 850MB FLOW IS 30 TO 40KNOTS AND WITH
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN, WE SHOULD HAVE A FAIRLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WHICH COULD TAP INTO SOME OF THOSE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY MVFR WITH PERIODIC IFR CEILINGS
THROUGH MID-TUESDAY AM, BECOMING ALL VFR LATER TUESDAY AM. MVFR
MIST POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT MSS.

STEADIER RAIN HAS ENDED, LEAVING CONTINUED LOW CEILINGS (1-1.5KFT
COMMON). EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT MSS WHERE INDICATIONS ARE THAT
CEILINGS WOULD LIFT SOONER, BUT GIVEN NARROW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
LIGHT FOG/MIST WOULD ALSO DEVELOP THERE. WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY
(UNDER 5 KTS).

SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WHEN LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS WHICH
WOULD THEN LIFT THE CEILINGS TOWARD VFR, ROUGHLY FROM 14 TO 18Z.
TAFS SHOW MVFR DECK LIFTING TO VFR IN 15-16Z PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 12Z WED: VFR.
12Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.
THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.
FRI - SAT: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 030224
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1024 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1021 PM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE TEMPS AND
MATCH CURRENT OBS. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT DRIZZLE
AT NEWPORT AND CALEDONIA AIRPORT...WITH SOME MIST AT SLK. THINKING
AREAS OF DRIZZLE...MIST...AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL. SOUNDINGS SHOW LOTS OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS...SO AREAS OF
FOG/BR LOOK REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NY. STILL
ANTICIPATING TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S DACKS TO MID 40S
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL
HAVE SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY 00Z THIS EVENING MOST OF
RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF VERMONT WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
BLOCKED LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW. NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT QPF
IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. MAY HAVE SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH A FEW COLDER SPOTS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 20S AND SOME WARMER SPOTS REACHING THE LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN
VERMONT ZONES AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE
SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...GOING WITH A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE PERIOD. AREA WILL BE IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW/MID
LEVELS AS A LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE, THE
REGION WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WEAK RIDGING. THUS LOOKING AT RATHER
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MODELS ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOME OF THE
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWEST 6000FT OR SO ON WEDNESDAY MEANS
ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT IN. END RESULT -- A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. NO STRONG FORCING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS EVEN A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT
IN A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS. STICKING WITH THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE, HAVE
PAINTED IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. COULD BE A SMIDGE COOLER IN
EASTERN SECTIONS THANKS TO THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC
AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR, AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS DIVERGE MUCH
MORE COME SUNDAY. THE QUICK SUMMARY IS THAT WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
SHOWERS ABOUT THURSDAY & FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD BE AN OUTSTANDING
SPRING DAY, BUT SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH FOR SUNDAY. COULD BE A BIT COOL AND BREEZY FOR MONDAY.

I`LL JUST TAKE IT DAY BY DAY FOR EXTRA DETAILS:

THURSDAY: UPPER TROF WILL BE DIGGING PRETTY FAR SOUTH DURING THE
DAY, AND BEGINNING TO CUT-OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. FOR OUR AREA, WE`LL BE STUCK IN A FAIRLY MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW SINCE WE`LL BE NORTH OF THE CUT-OFF. DESPITE THAT, THE
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD (AROUND 10C), SO EVEN
WITH NOT MUCH SUN EXPECTED, WE`LL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S AGAIN.  LOTS OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS.

FRIDAY: CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS TO A POSITION OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW, HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PULLED IN
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW (AND RELATED SURFACE LOW). COULD ACTUALLY
SEE SOME SUN ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS. 925MB TEMPERATURES A
BIT WARMER (10-12C). COULD BE PUSHING 70F IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY,
WHERE I WENT A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE LOTS OF 60S. COULD
STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN SECTIONS AT SOME POINT IN
THE DAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH THE GUIDANCE BLEND TO SHOW SOME 25-35%
POPS IN THOSE AREAS.

SATURDAY: STILL HAVE THE CUT-OFF LOW WOBBLING ABOUT SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE IN IT`S LOCATION, BUT THINKING IT
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT WE`LL BE THE EXCEPTION FOR THE
NORTHEAST AND SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND ADVECTS IN SOME FAIRLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. 925MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 13-15C
RANGE, WHICH UNDER FULL SUN MEANS TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. AT
THIS POINT, MANY OF GUIDANCE OUTPUTS AREN`T THAT WARM, SO HAVE
GENERALLY GONE 3 TO 5F ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BLEND FOR HIGHS. IN THESE
KINDS OF SITUATIONS, COASTAL NEW ENGLAND CAN BE COOL/CLOUDY/DRIZZLY
WITH THE ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW, WHILE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IT`S
THE TOTAL OPPOSITE. TYPICALLY HAPPENS A FEW TIMES EACH SPRING -- AND
I THINK THIS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE CASES.  IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THAT
COOLER/MOIST AIR COULD SNEAK INTO SOUTHEAST VERMONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PRIMARY
MODELS, BUT THE NET RESULT WILL BE A NOTICEABLE COOL-DOWN. THE GFS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 3-5C, WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. THE EURO IS NOT AS COLD, OWING TO
IT`S SLOWER TIMING OF BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN. STUCK WITH A BLEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. OTHER THING OF NOTE, AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY. EVEN THOUGH THE
FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE OVERNIGHT, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF T-STORMS FOR SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

MONDAY: FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW MEANING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS TO
EXACTLY HOW CHILLY THE AIR WILL BE, SO TOOK THE BLEND. UPPER 50S
(NORTH) TO LOW 60S (SOUTH) SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. COULD
ALSO BE FAIRLY BREEZY/GUSTY AS 850MB FLOW IS 30 TO 40KNOTS AND WITH
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN, WE SHOULD HAVE A FAIRLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WHICH COULD TAP INTO SOME OF THOSE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY MVFR WITH PERIODIC IFR CEILINGS
THROUGH MID-TUESDAY AM, BECOMING ALL VFR LATER TUESDAY AM. MVFR
MIST POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT MSS.

STEADIER RAIN HAS ENDED, LEAVING CONTINUED LOW CEILINGS (1-1.5KFT
COMMON). EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT MSS WHERE INDICATIONS ARE THAT
CEILINGS WOULD LIFT SOONER, BUT GIVEN NARROW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
LIGHT FOG/MIST WOULD ALSO DEVELOP THERE. WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY
(UNDER 5 KTS).

SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WHEN LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS WHICH
WOULD THEN LIFT THE CEILINGS TOWARD VFR, ROUGHLY FROM 14 TO 18Z.
TAFS SHOW MVFR DECK LIFTING TO VFR IN 15-16Z PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 12Z WED: VFR.
12Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.
THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.
FRI - SAT: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 030224
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1024 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1021 PM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE TEMPS AND
MATCH CURRENT OBS. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT DRIZZLE
AT NEWPORT AND CALEDONIA AIRPORT...WITH SOME MIST AT SLK. THINKING
AREAS OF DRIZZLE...MIST...AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL. SOUNDINGS SHOW LOTS OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS...SO AREAS OF
FOG/BR LOOK REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NY. STILL
ANTICIPATING TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S DACKS TO MID 40S
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL
HAVE SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY 00Z THIS EVENING MOST OF
RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF VERMONT WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
BLOCKED LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW. NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT QPF
IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. MAY HAVE SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH A FEW COLDER SPOTS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 20S AND SOME WARMER SPOTS REACHING THE LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN
VERMONT ZONES AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE
SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...GOING WITH A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE PERIOD. AREA WILL BE IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW/MID
LEVELS AS A LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE, THE
REGION WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WEAK RIDGING. THUS LOOKING AT RATHER
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MODELS ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOME OF THE
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWEST 6000FT OR SO ON WEDNESDAY MEANS
ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT IN. END RESULT -- A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. NO STRONG FORCING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS EVEN A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT
IN A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS. STICKING WITH THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE, HAVE
PAINTED IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. COULD BE A SMIDGE COOLER IN
EASTERN SECTIONS THANKS TO THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC
AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR, AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS DIVERGE MUCH
MORE COME SUNDAY. THE QUICK SUMMARY IS THAT WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
SHOWERS ABOUT THURSDAY & FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD BE AN OUTSTANDING
SPRING DAY, BUT SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH FOR SUNDAY. COULD BE A BIT COOL AND BREEZY FOR MONDAY.

I`LL JUST TAKE IT DAY BY DAY FOR EXTRA DETAILS:

THURSDAY: UPPER TROF WILL BE DIGGING PRETTY FAR SOUTH DURING THE
DAY, AND BEGINNING TO CUT-OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. FOR OUR AREA, WE`LL BE STUCK IN A FAIRLY MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW SINCE WE`LL BE NORTH OF THE CUT-OFF. DESPITE THAT, THE
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD (AROUND 10C), SO EVEN
WITH NOT MUCH SUN EXPECTED, WE`LL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S AGAIN.  LOTS OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS.

FRIDAY: CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS TO A POSITION OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW, HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PULLED IN
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW (AND RELATED SURFACE LOW). COULD ACTUALLY
SEE SOME SUN ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS. 925MB TEMPERATURES A
BIT WARMER (10-12C). COULD BE PUSHING 70F IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY,
WHERE I WENT A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE LOTS OF 60S. COULD
STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN SECTIONS AT SOME POINT IN
THE DAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH THE GUIDANCE BLEND TO SHOW SOME 25-35%
POPS IN THOSE AREAS.

SATURDAY: STILL HAVE THE CUT-OFF LOW WOBBLING ABOUT SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE IN IT`S LOCATION, BUT THINKING IT
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT WE`LL BE THE EXCEPTION FOR THE
NORTHEAST AND SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND ADVECTS IN SOME FAIRLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. 925MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 13-15C
RANGE, WHICH UNDER FULL SUN MEANS TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. AT
THIS POINT, MANY OF GUIDANCE OUTPUTS AREN`T THAT WARM, SO HAVE
GENERALLY GONE 3 TO 5F ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BLEND FOR HIGHS. IN THESE
KINDS OF SITUATIONS, COASTAL NEW ENGLAND CAN BE COOL/CLOUDY/DRIZZLY
WITH THE ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW, WHILE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IT`S
THE TOTAL OPPOSITE. TYPICALLY HAPPENS A FEW TIMES EACH SPRING -- AND
I THINK THIS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE CASES.  IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THAT
COOLER/MOIST AIR COULD SNEAK INTO SOUTHEAST VERMONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PRIMARY
MODELS, BUT THE NET RESULT WILL BE A NOTICEABLE COOL-DOWN. THE GFS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 3-5C, WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. THE EURO IS NOT AS COLD, OWING TO
IT`S SLOWER TIMING OF BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN. STUCK WITH A BLEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. OTHER THING OF NOTE, AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY. EVEN THOUGH THE
FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE OVERNIGHT, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF T-STORMS FOR SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

MONDAY: FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW MEANING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS TO
EXACTLY HOW CHILLY THE AIR WILL BE, SO TOOK THE BLEND. UPPER 50S
(NORTH) TO LOW 60S (SOUTH) SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. COULD
ALSO BE FAIRLY BREEZY/GUSTY AS 850MB FLOW IS 30 TO 40KNOTS AND WITH
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN, WE SHOULD HAVE A FAIRLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WHICH COULD TAP INTO SOME OF THOSE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY MVFR WITH PERIODIC IFR CEILINGS
THROUGH MID-TUESDAY AM, BECOMING ALL VFR LATER TUESDAY AM. MVFR
MIST POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT MSS.

STEADIER RAIN HAS ENDED, LEAVING CONTINUED LOW CEILINGS (1-1.5KFT
COMMON). EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT MSS WHERE INDICATIONS ARE THAT
CEILINGS WOULD LIFT SOONER, BUT GIVEN NARROW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
LIGHT FOG/MIST WOULD ALSO DEVELOP THERE. WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY
(UNDER 5 KTS).

SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WHEN LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS WHICH
WOULD THEN LIFT THE CEILINGS TOWARD VFR, ROUGHLY FROM 14 TO 18Z.
TAFS SHOW MVFR DECK LIFTING TO VFR IN 15-16Z PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 12Z WED: VFR.
12Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.
THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.
FRI - SAT: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 030224
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1024 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1021 PM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE TEMPS AND
MATCH CURRENT OBS. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT DRIZZLE
AT NEWPORT AND CALEDONIA AIRPORT...WITH SOME MIST AT SLK. THINKING
AREAS OF DRIZZLE...MIST...AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL. SOUNDINGS SHOW LOTS OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS...SO AREAS OF
FOG/BR LOOK REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NY. STILL
ANTICIPATING TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S DACKS TO MID 40S
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL
HAVE SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY 00Z THIS EVENING MOST OF
RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF VERMONT WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
BLOCKED LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW. NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT QPF
IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. MAY HAVE SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH A FEW COLDER SPOTS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 20S AND SOME WARMER SPOTS REACHING THE LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN
VERMONT ZONES AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE
SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...GOING WITH A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE PERIOD. AREA WILL BE IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW/MID
LEVELS AS A LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE, THE
REGION WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WEAK RIDGING. THUS LOOKING AT RATHER
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MODELS ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOME OF THE
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWEST 6000FT OR SO ON WEDNESDAY MEANS
ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT IN. END RESULT -- A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. NO STRONG FORCING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS EVEN A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT
IN A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS. STICKING WITH THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE, HAVE
PAINTED IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. COULD BE A SMIDGE COOLER IN
EASTERN SECTIONS THANKS TO THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC
AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR, AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS DIVERGE MUCH
MORE COME SUNDAY. THE QUICK SUMMARY IS THAT WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
SHOWERS ABOUT THURSDAY & FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD BE AN OUTSTANDING
SPRING DAY, BUT SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH FOR SUNDAY. COULD BE A BIT COOL AND BREEZY FOR MONDAY.

I`LL JUST TAKE IT DAY BY DAY FOR EXTRA DETAILS:

THURSDAY: UPPER TROF WILL BE DIGGING PRETTY FAR SOUTH DURING THE
DAY, AND BEGINNING TO CUT-OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. FOR OUR AREA, WE`LL BE STUCK IN A FAIRLY MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW SINCE WE`LL BE NORTH OF THE CUT-OFF. DESPITE THAT, THE
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD (AROUND 10C), SO EVEN
WITH NOT MUCH SUN EXPECTED, WE`LL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S AGAIN.  LOTS OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS.

FRIDAY: CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS TO A POSITION OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW, HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PULLED IN
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW (AND RELATED SURFACE LOW). COULD ACTUALLY
SEE SOME SUN ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS. 925MB TEMPERATURES A
BIT WARMER (10-12C). COULD BE PUSHING 70F IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY,
WHERE I WENT A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE LOTS OF 60S. COULD
STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN SECTIONS AT SOME POINT IN
THE DAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH THE GUIDANCE BLEND TO SHOW SOME 25-35%
POPS IN THOSE AREAS.

SATURDAY: STILL HAVE THE CUT-OFF LOW WOBBLING ABOUT SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE IN IT`S LOCATION, BUT THINKING IT
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT WE`LL BE THE EXCEPTION FOR THE
NORTHEAST AND SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND ADVECTS IN SOME FAIRLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. 925MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 13-15C
RANGE, WHICH UNDER FULL SUN MEANS TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. AT
THIS POINT, MANY OF GUIDANCE OUTPUTS AREN`T THAT WARM, SO HAVE
GENERALLY GONE 3 TO 5F ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BLEND FOR HIGHS. IN THESE
KINDS OF SITUATIONS, COASTAL NEW ENGLAND CAN BE COOL/CLOUDY/DRIZZLY
WITH THE ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW, WHILE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IT`S
THE TOTAL OPPOSITE. TYPICALLY HAPPENS A FEW TIMES EACH SPRING -- AND
I THINK THIS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE CASES.  IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THAT
COOLER/MOIST AIR COULD SNEAK INTO SOUTHEAST VERMONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PRIMARY
MODELS, BUT THE NET RESULT WILL BE A NOTICEABLE COOL-DOWN. THE GFS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 3-5C, WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. THE EURO IS NOT AS COLD, OWING TO
IT`S SLOWER TIMING OF BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN. STUCK WITH A BLEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. OTHER THING OF NOTE, AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY. EVEN THOUGH THE
FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE OVERNIGHT, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF T-STORMS FOR SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

MONDAY: FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW MEANING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS TO
EXACTLY HOW CHILLY THE AIR WILL BE, SO TOOK THE BLEND. UPPER 50S
(NORTH) TO LOW 60S (SOUTH) SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. COULD
ALSO BE FAIRLY BREEZY/GUSTY AS 850MB FLOW IS 30 TO 40KNOTS AND WITH
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN, WE SHOULD HAVE A FAIRLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WHICH COULD TAP INTO SOME OF THOSE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY MVFR WITH PERIODIC IFR CEILINGS
THROUGH MID-TUESDAY AM, BECOMING ALL VFR LATER TUESDAY AM. MVFR
MIST POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT MSS.

STEADIER RAIN HAS ENDED, LEAVING CONTINUED LOW CEILINGS (1-1.5KFT
COMMON). EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT MSS WHERE INDICATIONS ARE THAT
CEILINGS WOULD LIFT SOONER, BUT GIVEN NARROW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
LIGHT FOG/MIST WOULD ALSO DEVELOP THERE. WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY
(UNDER 5 KTS).

SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WHEN LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS WHICH
WOULD THEN LIFT THE CEILINGS TOWARD VFR, ROUGHLY FROM 14 TO 18Z.
TAFS SHOW MVFR DECK LIFTING TO VFR IN 15-16Z PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 12Z WED: VFR.
12Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.
THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.
FRI - SAT: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBGM 030142
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
942 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COOL AIR AND SHOWERS IN THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
935 PM UPDATE...NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN MOVING INTO EXTREME
SOUTHERN PA ATTM. THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS NE PA PRIMARILY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO DELAY THE ONSET OF NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISC...
THIS AFTN/S WV IS EXITING TO THE EAST ATTM
ALLOWING A BUBBLE SFC HIPRES TO BLD INTO THE AREA. OLD TROF
LINE/FNT REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE SE ZONES AND MAY FOCUS A FEW
SHWRS OVER THAT AREA THRU THE NGT. NOTHING STRONG ENUF TO DRY OUT
THE MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INV SO XPCT CLDS...DRIZZLE...AND
PTCHY FOG TO CONT OVRNGT.

LATE TNGT...YET ANOTHER WV RUNS UP THE BNDRY AND SHD INCRS THE
CVRG OF SHWRS OVER THE SERN ZONES AFT MIDN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SW FLOW CONTS THRU THE SHRT TERM WITH A LRG UPR TROF DIGGING OVER
THE CNTRL LAKES. THIS WILL CONT THE UNSETTLED WX AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NEWRD ACROSS THE AREA. OLD FNTL BBNDRY DRIFTS SLOWLY TO
THE SE AND SHD BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER CONV BASED PCPN WITH A
DEEP SWLY ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE OPEN GULF.

OVER THE FCST AREA...FRCG IS WEAKER BUT PLENTY OF AVBL MOISTURE
UNDER THE UPR LOW WHICH PROVIDED INSTABILITY WITH IT/S COLD POOL.
SO...XPCT SCT SHWRS TO CONT THRU THE PD WITH NO STRONG SFC OR UPR
FEATURES TO TRIGGER ENHANCED PD OF PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
105 PM UPDATE...

MODELS AGREE THAT A MEAN TROF / BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEK. EVEN AS THE CYCLONE FINALLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY, ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL ROTATE TOWARD
WESTERN NY.

THE RESULT WILL BE A COOL AND SHOWERY FORECAST, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROMISING DAY FOR NICE, MAY-
LIKE WEATHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 500 AND 900 FEET ARE FORECAST AT ITH AND
BGM OVERNIGHT, WITH BOTH SITES EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT TO VFR
BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z ON TUESDAY.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLIDE INTO AVP AROUND 5Z, THEN TAPER OFF MID-
MORNING, POSSIBLY CAUSING MVFR CONDITIONS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...IMPROVING TO VFR.

WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 030142
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
942 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COOL AIR AND SHOWERS IN THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
935 PM UPDATE...NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN MOVING INTO EXTREME
SOUTHERN PA ATTM. THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS NE PA PRIMARILY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO DELAY THE ONSET OF NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISC...
THIS AFTN/S WV IS EXITING TO THE EAST ATTM
ALLOWING A BUBBLE SFC HIPRES TO BLD INTO THE AREA. OLD TROF
LINE/FNT REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE SE ZONES AND MAY FOCUS A FEW
SHWRS OVER THAT AREA THRU THE NGT. NOTHING STRONG ENUF TO DRY OUT
THE MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INV SO XPCT CLDS...DRIZZLE...AND
PTCHY FOG TO CONT OVRNGT.

LATE TNGT...YET ANOTHER WV RUNS UP THE BNDRY AND SHD INCRS THE
CVRG OF SHWRS OVER THE SERN ZONES AFT MIDN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SW FLOW CONTS THRU THE SHRT TERM WITH A LRG UPR TROF DIGGING OVER
THE CNTRL LAKES. THIS WILL CONT THE UNSETTLED WX AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NEWRD ACROSS THE AREA. OLD FNTL BBNDRY DRIFTS SLOWLY TO
THE SE AND SHD BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER CONV BASED PCPN WITH A
DEEP SWLY ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE OPEN GULF.

OVER THE FCST AREA...FRCG IS WEAKER BUT PLENTY OF AVBL MOISTURE
UNDER THE UPR LOW WHICH PROVIDED INSTABILITY WITH IT/S COLD POOL.
SO...XPCT SCT SHWRS TO CONT THRU THE PD WITH NO STRONG SFC OR UPR
FEATURES TO TRIGGER ENHANCED PD OF PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
105 PM UPDATE...

MODELS AGREE THAT A MEAN TROF / BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEK. EVEN AS THE CYCLONE FINALLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY, ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL ROTATE TOWARD
WESTERN NY.

THE RESULT WILL BE A COOL AND SHOWERY FORECAST, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROMISING DAY FOR NICE, MAY-
LIKE WEATHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 500 AND 900 FEET ARE FORECAST AT ITH AND
BGM OVERNIGHT, WITH BOTH SITES EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT TO VFR
BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z ON TUESDAY.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLIDE INTO AVP AROUND 5Z, THEN TAPER OFF MID-
MORNING, POSSIBLY CAUSING MVFR CONDITIONS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...IMPROVING TO VFR.

WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP




000
FXUS61 KALY 030121
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
921 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOP FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 920 PM EDT...ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS TRACKING
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. WHILE THE STEADY RAIN HAS
ENDED ACROSS THE FA TEMPORARILY...PATCHY DRIZZLE REMAINS
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST.

THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS ALREADY WORKING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD
SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...FROM THE SE CATSKILLS INTO THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR N AND W AS THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN VT AND THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST HRRRX SUGGESTS THAT A MORE NORTHWARD
EXPANSION OF THIS RAIN SHIELD SEEMS MORE LIKELY...AND BASED ON
UPSTREAM COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND RADARS...THIS SEEMS TO BE AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR A MORE NORTHWARD PUSH TO THE RAIN SHIELD
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE CLOSE TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WITH ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE UP TO...OR
EVEN POSSIBLY NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM MOST AREAS FROM SARATOGA
SPRINGS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL
MOST LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE CENTRAL BERKSHIRES
AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WAVE IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...LEAVING MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RAIN ENDING...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESP IN AREAS WHERE A
STEADY RAIN OCCURS IN THE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION...WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS
THE RAIN ENDS EARLIER...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT GREATER...ESP NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRANSLATE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SO...HAVE INDICATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION...THEREFORE REDUCING
CHANCES OF STEADY RAIN ON THU. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TO REFINE POPS JUST YET. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE COOLER SHOULD ANY AREAS OF STEADIER RAINFALL
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
DRYNESS INTERSPERSED.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND EVEN MILDER READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S.  A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS HAVE THINNED
IN SOME AREAS WHILE REMAINING OVERCAST AND IFR IN OTHERS. HAVE
GENERALLY TRENDED THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO NOT ONLY REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS BUT A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN MOVING IN AT KPOU LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE. IT
WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY TO SEE REAL IMPROVEMENT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 21Z TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF UP TO ONE
HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AS FAR N AND W AS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND SOUTHERN VT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS FROM LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING MAINLY RANGED FROM
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS DID
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. DESPITE
THESE AMTS...ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
ABSORPTION BY GROWING VEGETATION RESULTED IN MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
RIVERS/STREAMS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. LITTLE
IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...THESE AMTS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL...IF
ANY IMPACTS ON RIVERS/STREAMS.

MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 022356
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
756 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-
STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER IS ON TAP AS AN UPPER
TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID
WEEK. PRECEDING THIS TROF...WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE...THE FIRST OF WHICH TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT TO JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MORNING. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT..ALBEIT THERE ARE SOME
SMALL TIMING ISSUES...FOR A DECENT BANDED RAIN EVENT LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COUPLED WITH A VORT
APPROACHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE ABOUT HALF TO ONE
INCH OF RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS LI. THE
RAIN WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SW TO NE WITH ABOUT A 3 TO 5
HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL WAVE
AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...ADDED THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT PRIOR TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL
BE OVERCAST. DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE SMALL THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD OVER AND NE FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE RAIN WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY. GENERALLY THOUGH LOOKING AT LOW RAIN CHANCES BY
AFTERNOON WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PASSING WELL TO THE
EAST AND ONLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH A EVEN A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

ONCE AGAIN...DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE SMALL...WITH HIGHS TUE
IN THE 50S...WITH LOWS TUE NIGHT ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER. THIS
WILL EQUATE TO WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THE REGARDING CUTOFF LOW THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY TRACKS SE TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO
SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE COAST ON SATURDAY AS A NEW NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS ON SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THERE IS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES EXIST IN ANY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
DEVELOPS ON A STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE
DEPICTED WITH THE LATEST MODELS WHICH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH THE
DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HAVE ALSO ELECTED TO REMAIN PERSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GENERALLY CHANCE POPS. TIMING ENERGY
WITHING THE CUTOFF LOW REMAINS DIFFICULT. IT WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE
WASH OUT...BUT PERIODS OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME. THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE SIGNALING THAT FRIDAY MAY BE
THE DAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THIS IS WHEN THE CUTOFF LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NE TOWARDS THE AREA AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SHOW A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...POPS INCREASE BACK TO CHANCE.

AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...BUT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS STILL DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES COULD COME CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC APPROACHES NY AIRSPACE
TONIGHT...AND WILL TRACK SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

SCT/BKN MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY IFR/MVFR
FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 00Z ACROSS OUTLYING AIRPORTS IF CLEARING IS
MORE PRONOUNCED.

THEN EXPECTING RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z
TONIGHT...WITH CIGS/VSBY DROPPING BACK TO IFR...POSSIBLY LIFR.
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC/NJ METRO AND LI
TERMINALS. RA/TSRA ENDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z FROM SW TO NE.

CIGS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TO MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH VSBY LIKELY IMPROVING QUICKER TO MVFR
THEN VFR THROUGH THE MORNING. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LOW PROB OF IFR CIGS HOLDING ON THROUGH
THE DAY.

LIGHT S/SW WINDS BECOMING LGT/VRB THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME NE
8-12 KT LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUE AFT...POSSIBLY VEERING
SE LATE TUE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB OF LIFR OR LOWER CONDS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
00Z AND 05Z IN STRATUS/FOG. CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB OF LIFR OR LOWER CONDS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
00Z AND 05Z IN STRATUS/FOG. CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDS LIKELY. IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN
RAIN/FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SEAS AROUND 5 FT LATE TUE AFT/EARLY EVE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE
OF AN SCA. NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUE
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ON ALL COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO WINDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OCEAN SEAS MAY COME
CLOSE TO 5 FT AT TIMES WITH A PERSISTENT SE SWELL...MAINLY ON THE
WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO AN INCH IS FORECAST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
FALL ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WITH THE LOWER END BEING
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MINOR
NUISANCE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGHEST SPRING TIDE OF THE  EAR IS APPROACHING WITH THE NEW
MOON ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES WED INTO FRI...AND LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

PERIODIC NE FLOW IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES WILL PREDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING...BUT THE THREAT IS THERE PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LI/QUEENS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FEB/DS/DW
NEAR TERM...FEB/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 022356
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
756 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-
STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER IS ON TAP AS AN UPPER
TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID
WEEK. PRECEDING THIS TROF...WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE...THE FIRST OF WHICH TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT TO JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MORNING. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT..ALBEIT THERE ARE SOME
SMALL TIMING ISSUES...FOR A DECENT BANDED RAIN EVENT LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COUPLED WITH A VORT
APPROACHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE ABOUT HALF TO ONE
INCH OF RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS LI. THE
RAIN WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SW TO NE WITH ABOUT A 3 TO 5
HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL WAVE
AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...ADDED THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT PRIOR TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL
BE OVERCAST. DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE SMALL THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD OVER AND NE FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE RAIN WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY. GENERALLY THOUGH LOOKING AT LOW RAIN CHANCES BY
AFTERNOON WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PASSING WELL TO THE
EAST AND ONLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH A EVEN A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

ONCE AGAIN...DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE SMALL...WITH HIGHS TUE
IN THE 50S...WITH LOWS TUE NIGHT ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER. THIS
WILL EQUATE TO WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THE REGARDING CUTOFF LOW THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY TRACKS SE TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO
SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE COAST ON SATURDAY AS A NEW NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS ON SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THERE IS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES EXIST IN ANY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
DEVELOPS ON A STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE
DEPICTED WITH THE LATEST MODELS WHICH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH THE
DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HAVE ALSO ELECTED TO REMAIN PERSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GENERALLY CHANCE POPS. TIMING ENERGY
WITHING THE CUTOFF LOW REMAINS DIFFICULT. IT WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE
WASH OUT...BUT PERIODS OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME. THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE SIGNALING THAT FRIDAY MAY BE
THE DAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THIS IS WHEN THE CUTOFF LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NE TOWARDS THE AREA AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SHOW A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...POPS INCREASE BACK TO CHANCE.

AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...BUT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS STILL DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES COULD COME CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC APPROACHES NY AIRSPACE
TONIGHT...AND WILL TRACK SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

SCT/BKN MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY IFR/MVFR
FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 00Z ACROSS OUTLYING AIRPORTS IF CLEARING IS
MORE PRONOUNCED.

THEN EXPECTING RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z
TONIGHT...WITH CIGS/VSBY DROPPING BACK TO IFR...POSSIBLY LIFR.
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC/NJ METRO AND LI
TERMINALS. RA/TSRA ENDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z FROM SW TO NE.

CIGS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TO MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH VSBY LIKELY IMPROVING QUICKER TO MVFR
THEN VFR THROUGH THE MORNING. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LOW PROB OF IFR CIGS HOLDING ON THROUGH
THE DAY.

LIGHT S/SW WINDS BECOMING LGT/VRB THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME NE
8-12 KT LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUE AFT...POSSIBLY VEERING
SE LATE TUE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB OF LIFR OR LOWER CONDS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
00Z AND 05Z IN STRATUS/FOG. CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB OF LIFR OR LOWER CONDS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
00Z AND 05Z IN STRATUS/FOG. CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDS LIKELY. IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN
RAIN/FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SEAS AROUND 5 FT LATE TUE AFT/EARLY EVE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE
OF AN SCA. NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUE
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ON ALL COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO WINDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OCEAN SEAS MAY COME
CLOSE TO 5 FT AT TIMES WITH A PERSISTENT SE SWELL...MAINLY ON THE
WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO AN INCH IS FORECAST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
FALL ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WITH THE LOWER END BEING
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MINOR
NUISANCE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGHEST SPRING TIDE OF THE  EAR IS APPROACHING WITH THE NEW
MOON ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES WED INTO FRI...AND LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

PERIODIC NE FLOW IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES WILL PREDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING...BUT THE THREAT IS THERE PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LI/QUEENS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FEB/DS/DW
NEAR TERM...FEB/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022350
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
750 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 748 PM EDT MONDAY...THE WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM TODAY HAS
QUICKLY SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION...WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE PREVAILING. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO MATCH LATEST
OBS...ALONG WITH INCREASED LOW TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. THINKING
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
SOME AREAS OF FOG/BR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NY WHERE SOME
CLEARING WILL OCCUR AFTER 06Z.

AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL
HAVE SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY 00Z THIS EVENING MOST OF
RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF VERMONT WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
BLOCKED LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW. NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT QPF
IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. MAY HAVE SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH A FEW COLDER SPOTS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 20S AND SOME WARMER SPOTS REACHING THE LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN
VERMONT ZONES AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE
SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...GOING WITH A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE PERIOD. AREA WILL BE IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW/MID
LEVELS AS A LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE, THE
REGION WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WEAK RIDGING. THUS LOOKING AT RATHER
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MODELS ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOME OF THE
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWEST 6000FT OR SO ON WEDNESDAY MEANS
ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT IN. END RESULT -- A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. NO STRONG FORCING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS EVEN A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT
IN A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS. STICKING WITH THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE, HAVE
PAINTED IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. COULD BE A SMIDGE COOLER IN
EASTERN SECTIONS THANKS TO THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC
AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR, AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS DIVERGE MUCH
MORE COME SUNDAY. THE QUICK SUMMARY IS THAT WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
SHOWERS ABOUT THURSDAY & FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD BE AN OUTSTANDING
SPRING DAY, BUT SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH FOR SUNDAY. COULD BE A BIT COOL AND BREEZY FOR MONDAY.

I`LL JUST TAKE IT DAY BY DAY FOR EXTRA DETAILS:

THURSDAY: UPPER TROF WILL BE DIGGING PRETTY FAR SOUTH DURING THE
DAY, AND BEGINNING TO CUT-OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. FOR OUR AREA, WE`LL BE STUCK IN A FAIRLY MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW SINCE WE`LL BE NORTH OF THE CUT-OFF. DESPITE THAT, THE
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD (AROUND 10C), SO EVEN
WITH NOT MUCH SUN EXPECTED, WE`LL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S AGAIN.  LOTS OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS.

FRIDAY: CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS TO A POSITION OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW, HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PULLED IN
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW (AND RELATED SURFACE LOW). COULD ACTUALLY
SEE SOME SUN ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS. 925MB TEMPERATURES A
BIT WARMER (10-12C). COULD BE PUSHING 70F IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY,
WHERE I WENT A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE LOTS OF 60S. COULD
STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN SECTIONS AT SOME POINT IN
THE DAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH THE GUIDANCE BLEND TO SHOW SOME 25-35%
POPS IN THOSE AREAS.

SATURDAY: STILL HAVE THE CUT-OFF LOW WOBBLING ABOUT SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE IN IT`S LOCATION, BUT THINKING IT
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT WE`LL BE THE EXCEPTION FOR THE
NORTHEAST AND SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND ADVECTS IN SOME FAIRLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. 925MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 13-15C
RANGE, WHICH UNDER FULL SUN MEANS TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. AT
THIS POINT, MANY OF GUIDANCE OUTPUTS AREN`T THAT WARM, SO HAVE
GENERALLY GONE 3 TO 5F ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BLEND FOR HIGHS. IN THESE
KINDS OF SITUATIONS, COASTAL NEW ENGLAND CAN BE COOL/CLOUDY/DRIZZLY
WITH THE ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW, WHILE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IT`S
THE TOTAL OPPOSITE. TYPICALLY HAPPENS A FEW TIMES EACH SPRING -- AND
I THINK THIS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE CASES.  IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THAT
COOLER/MOIST AIR COULD SNEAK INTO SOUTHEAST VERMONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PRIMARY
MODELS, BUT THE NET RESULT WILL BE A NOTICEABLE COOL-DOWN. THE GFS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 3-5C, WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. THE EURO IS NOT AS COLD, OWING TO
IT`S SLOWER TIMING OF BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN. STUCK WITH A BLEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. OTHER THING OF NOTE, AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY. EVEN THOUGH THE
FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE OVERNIGHT, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF T-STORMS FOR SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

MONDAY: FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW MEANING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS TO
EXACTLY HOW CHILLY THE AIR WILL BE, SO TOOK THE BLEND. UPPER 50S
(NORTH) TO LOW 60S (SOUTH) SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. COULD
ALSO BE FAIRLY BREEZY/GUSTY AS 850MB FLOW IS 30 TO 40KNOTS AND WITH
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN, WE SHOULD HAVE A FAIRLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WHICH COULD TAP INTO SOME OF THOSE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY MVFR WITH PERIODIC IFR CEILINGS
THROUGH MID-TUESDAY AM, BECOMING ALL VFR LATER TUESDAY AM. MVFR
MIST POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT MSS.

STEADIER RAIN HAS ENDED, LEAVING CONTINUED LOW CEILINGS (1-1.5KFT
COMMON). EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT MSS WHERE INDICATIONS ARE THAT
CEILINGS WOULD LIFT SOONER, BUT GIVEN NARROW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
LIGHT FOG/MIST WOULD ALSO DEVELOP THERE. WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY
(UNDER 5 KTS).

SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WHEN LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS WHICH
WOULD THEN LIFT THE CEILINGS TOWARD VFR, ROUGHLY FROM 14 TO 18Z.
TAFS SHOW MVFR DECK LIFTING TO VFR IN 15-16Z PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 12Z WED: VFR.
12Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.
THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.
FRI - SAT: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBUF 022329
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
729 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...
PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. MORE UNSETTLE
WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVED ACROSS THE STATE EARLIER TODAY...
AND THIS FEATURE HELPED TO GENERATE A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF SOAKING RAIN.
WHILE THAT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING AWAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...
A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ARND 5K FT WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE NIGHT. EVEN IF THERE WERE SOME CLEARING...IT WOULD
LIKELY BE VERY TEMPORARY AS RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A MOIST SFC
WOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE LOW CLOUDS. LOCALIZED UPSLOPE
FLOW WOULD ALSO FAVOR MORE CLOUD COVER. AT LEAST DRIER AIR IN THE
MID LEVEL WOULD KEEP THE NIGHT PCPN FREE. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE
INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SRN TIER AND EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

TUESDAY...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG A STALL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BOARDER. THESE FEATURES ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT OTHER TO INTRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BEST SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
LIKELY KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER
LAKES WITH DRY COOL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE A RATHER POTENT UPPER PV ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH COMPACT UPPER JET STREAK/UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABOVE AND SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL SUPPORTS INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS. HOWEVER GIVEN DYNAMICS
OF THIS SYSTEM AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUSPECT
THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE OVERHEAD AND STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
SETTING UP ACROSS REGION. BASED ON TIMING OF THESE FEATURES SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABLY
REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES AND SURFACE HIGHS/LOWS... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR DELMARVA ON FRIDAY WILL WEAKEN...DRIFT
OFFSHORE OR A LITTLE NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THEN BY EARLY SUNDAY
WILL EVENTUALLY BE EJECTED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM BY AN
APPROACHING AND STRONGER UPPER WAVE. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT ONLY THE COASTAL REGION FROM
CHESAPEAKE BAY TO NEW ENGLAND...AND SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE
EAST TO HAVE NO EFFECT ON WESTERN OR NORTHERN NY.

UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE COASTAL CUTOFF AND THE MORE NORTHERN
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE STRETCHED AND
PHASING INTO A STATIONARY FRONT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL STILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE BUT
SMALLER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAIL THE FRONT AND IMPLIES SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUS WILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE NEW WORKWEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE RATHER MILD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH MID 60S ON FRIDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON
SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS IN PLACE FR MOST AREAS EARLY THIS
EVENING...WHILE IFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SRN TIER.

AS WE PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO
VFR LEVELS...ALTHOUGH ANY CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OR
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A FRESH ROUND OF
STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR CIGS.

ON TUESDAY...DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT ANY
IFR/MVFR CIGS DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION ON BOTH
LAKES TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/RSH
NEAR TERM...AR/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...AR/RSH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 022329
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
729 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...
PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. MORE UNSETTLE
WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVED ACROSS THE STATE EARLIER TODAY...
AND THIS FEATURE HELPED TO GENERATE A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF SOAKING RAIN.
WHILE THAT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING AWAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...
A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ARND 5K FT WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE NIGHT. EVEN IF THERE WERE SOME CLEARING...IT WOULD
LIKELY BE VERY TEMPORARY AS RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A MOIST SFC
WOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE LOW CLOUDS. LOCALIZED UPSLOPE
FLOW WOULD ALSO FAVOR MORE CLOUD COVER. AT LEAST DRIER AIR IN THE
MID LEVEL WOULD KEEP THE NIGHT PCPN FREE. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE
INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SRN TIER AND EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

TUESDAY...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG A STALL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BOARDER. THESE FEATURES ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT OTHER TO INTRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BEST SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
LIKELY KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER
LAKES WITH DRY COOL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE A RATHER POTENT UPPER PV ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH COMPACT UPPER JET STREAK/UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABOVE AND SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL SUPPORTS INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS. HOWEVER GIVEN DYNAMICS
OF THIS SYSTEM AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUSPECT
THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE OVERHEAD AND STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
SETTING UP ACROSS REGION. BASED ON TIMING OF THESE FEATURES SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABLY
REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES AND SURFACE HIGHS/LOWS... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR DELMARVA ON FRIDAY WILL WEAKEN...DRIFT
OFFSHORE OR A LITTLE NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THEN BY EARLY SUNDAY
WILL EVENTUALLY BE EJECTED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM BY AN
APPROACHING AND STRONGER UPPER WAVE. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT ONLY THE COASTAL REGION FROM
CHESAPEAKE BAY TO NEW ENGLAND...AND SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE
EAST TO HAVE NO EFFECT ON WESTERN OR NORTHERN NY.

UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE COASTAL CUTOFF AND THE MORE NORTHERN
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE STRETCHED AND
PHASING INTO A STATIONARY FRONT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL STILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE BUT
SMALLER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAIL THE FRONT AND IMPLIES SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUS WILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE NEW WORKWEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE RATHER MILD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH MID 60S ON FRIDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON
SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS IN PLACE FR MOST AREAS EARLY THIS
EVENING...WHILE IFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SRN TIER.

AS WE PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO
VFR LEVELS...ALTHOUGH ANY CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OR
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A FRESH ROUND OF
STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR CIGS.

ON TUESDAY...DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT ANY
IFR/MVFR CIGS DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION ON BOTH
LAKES TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/RSH
NEAR TERM...AR/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...AR/RSH




000
FXUS61 KALY 022318
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
718 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOP FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EDT...THE STEADY RAIN HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY
IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CAPITAL REGION...EXTENDING INTO
THE BERKSHIRES. THIS AREA OF DRIZZLE SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE FROM NW
TO SE THROUGH SUNSET. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

MEANWHILE...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...A BURST OF SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPING W/NW WINDS...HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO
WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD OCCUR IN SOME AREAS BEFORE SUNSET...AS THIS
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPING PERSIST A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS BEFORE
WEAKENING.

AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE MIDWEST
HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. A LOW/MID
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED AN AREA OF RAIN AND
EMBEDDED CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...AND
CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE/EXPAND NORTHEAST. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...FROM THE SE
CATSKILLS INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR N AND W AS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST HRRRX SUGGESTS THAT A
MORE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THIS RAIN SHIELD SEEMS MORE
LIKELY...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND
RADARS...THIS SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR A MORE
NORTHWARD PUSH TO THE RAIN SHIELD AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE CLOSE TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WITH ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE UP TO...OR
EVEN POSSIBLY NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM MOST AREAS FROM SARATOGA
SPRINGS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL
MOST LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE CENTRAL BERKSHIRES
AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WAVE IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...LEAVING MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RAIN ENDING...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESP IN AREAS WHERE A
STEADY RAIN OCCURS IN THE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION...WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS
THE RAIN ENDS EARLIER...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT GREATER...ESP NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRANSLATE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SO...HAVE INDICATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION...THEREFORE REDUCING
CHANCES OF STEADY RAIN ON THU. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TO REFINE POPS JUST YET. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE COOLER SHOULD ANY AREAS OF STEADIER RAINFALL
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
DRYNESS INTERSPERSED.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND EVEN MILDER READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S.  A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS HAVE THINNED
IN SOME AREAS WHILE REMAINING OVERCAST AND IFR IN OTHERS. HAVE
GENERALLY TRENDED THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO NOT ONLY REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS BUT A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN MOVING IN AT KPOU LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE. IT
WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY TO SEE REAL IMPROVEMENT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 21Z TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF UP TO ONE
HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AS FAR N AND W AS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND SOUTHERN VT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS FROM LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING MAINLY RANGED FROM
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS DID
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. DESPITE
THESE AMTS...ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
ABSORPTION BY GROWING VEGETATION RESULTED IN MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
RIVERS/STREAMS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. LITTLE
IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...THESE AMTS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL...IF
ANY IMPACTS ON RIVERS/STREAMS.

MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 022318
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
718 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOP FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EDT...THE STEADY RAIN HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY
IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CAPITAL REGION...EXTENDING INTO
THE BERKSHIRES. THIS AREA OF DRIZZLE SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE FROM NW
TO SE THROUGH SUNSET. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

MEANWHILE...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...A BURST OF SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPING W/NW WINDS...HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO
WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD OCCUR IN SOME AREAS BEFORE SUNSET...AS THIS
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPING PERSIST A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS BEFORE
WEAKENING.

AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE MIDWEST
HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. A LOW/MID
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED AN AREA OF RAIN AND
EMBEDDED CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...AND
CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE/EXPAND NORTHEAST. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...FROM THE SE
CATSKILLS INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR N AND W AS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST HRRRX SUGGESTS THAT A
MORE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THIS RAIN SHIELD SEEMS MORE
LIKELY...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND
RADARS...THIS SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR A MORE
NORTHWARD PUSH TO THE RAIN SHIELD AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE CLOSE TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WITH ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE UP TO...OR
EVEN POSSIBLY NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM MOST AREAS FROM SARATOGA
SPRINGS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL
MOST LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE CENTRAL BERKSHIRES
AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WAVE IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...LEAVING MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RAIN ENDING...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESP IN AREAS WHERE A
STEADY RAIN OCCURS IN THE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION...WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS
THE RAIN ENDS EARLIER...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT GREATER...ESP NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRANSLATE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SO...HAVE INDICATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION...THEREFORE REDUCING
CHANCES OF STEADY RAIN ON THU. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TO REFINE POPS JUST YET. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE COOLER SHOULD ANY AREAS OF STEADIER RAINFALL
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
DRYNESS INTERSPERSED.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND EVEN MILDER READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S.  A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS HAVE THINNED
IN SOME AREAS WHILE REMAINING OVERCAST AND IFR IN OTHERS. HAVE
GENERALLY TRENDED THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO NOT ONLY REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS BUT A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN MOVING IN AT KPOU LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE. IT
WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY TO SEE REAL IMPROVEMENT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 21Z TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF UP TO ONE
HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AS FAR N AND W AS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND SOUTHERN VT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS FROM LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING MAINLY RANGED FROM
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS DID
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. DESPITE
THESE AMTS...ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
ABSORPTION BY GROWING VEGETATION RESULTED IN MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
RIVERS/STREAMS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. LITTLE
IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...THESE AMTS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL...IF
ANY IMPACTS ON RIVERS/STREAMS.

MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022312
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
712 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
BY 00Z THIS EVENING MOST OF RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF VERMONT
WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING. CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH BLOCKED LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW. NO
FURTHER SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. MAY HAVE SOME
CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH A FEW
COLDER SPOTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND SOME WARMER SPOTS REACHING
THE LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN
VERMONT ZONES AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE
SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...GOING WITH A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE PERIOD. AREA WILL BE IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW/MID
LEVELS AS A LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE, THE
REGION WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WEAK RIDGING. THUS LOOKING AT RATHER
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MODELS ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOME OF THE
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWEST 6000FT OR SO ON WEDNESDAY MEANS
ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT IN. END RESULT -- A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. NO STRONG FORCING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS EVEN A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT
IN A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS. STICKING WITH THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE, HAVE
PAINTED IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. COULD BE A SMIDGE COOLER IN
EASTERN SECTIONS THANKS TO THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC
AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR, AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS DIVERGE MUCH
MORE COME SUNDAY. THE QUICK SUMMARY IS THAT WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
SHOWERS ABOUT THURSDAY & FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD BE AN OUTSTANDING
SPRING DAY, BUT SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH FOR SUNDAY. COULD BE A BIT COOL AND BREEZY FOR MONDAY.

I`LL JUST TAKE IT DAY BY DAY FOR EXTRA DETAILS:

THURSDAY: UPPER TROF WILL BE DIGGING PRETTY FAR SOUTH DURING THE
DAY, AND BEGINNING TO CUT-OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. FOR OUR AREA, WE`LL BE STUCK IN A FAIRLY MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW SINCE WE`LL BE NORTH OF THE CUT-OFF. DESPITE THAT, THE
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD (AROUND 10C), SO EVEN
WITH NOT MUCH SUN EXPECTED, WE`LL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S AGAIN.  LOTS OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS.

FRIDAY: CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS TO A POSITION OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW, HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PULLED IN
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW (AND RELATED SURFACE LOW). COULD ACTUALLY
SEE SOME SUN ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS. 925MB TEMPERATURES A
BIT WARMER (10-12C). COULD BE PUSHING 70F IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY,
WHERE I WENT A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE LOTS OF 60S. COULD
STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN SECTIONS AT SOME POINT IN
THE DAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH THE GUIDANCE BLEND TO SHOW SOME 25-35%
POPS IN THOSE AREAS.

SATURDAY: STILL HAVE THE CUT-OFF LOW WOBBLING ABOUT SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE IN IT`S LOCATION, BUT THINKING IT
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT WE`LL BE THE EXCEPTION FOR THE
NORTHEAST AND SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND ADVECTS IN SOME FAIRLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. 925MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 13-15C
RANGE, WHICH UNDER FULL SUN MEANS TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. AT
THIS POINT, MANY OF GUIDANCE OUTPUTS AREN`T THAT WARM, SO HAVE
GENERALLY GONE 3 TO 5F ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BLEND FOR HIGHS. IN THESE
KINDS OF SITUATIONS, COASTAL NEW ENGLAND CAN BE COOL/CLOUDY/DRIZZLY
WITH THE ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW, WHILE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IT`S
THE TOTAL OPPOSITE. TYPICALLY HAPPENS A FEW TIMES EACH SPRING -- AND
I THINK THIS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE CASES.  IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THAT
COOLER/MOIST AIR COULD SNEAK INTO SOUTHEAST VERMONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PRIMARY
MODELS, BUT THE NET RESULT WILL BE A NOTICEABLE COOL-DOWN. THE GFS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 3-5C, WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. THE EURO IS NOT AS COLD, OWING TO
IT`S SLOWER TIMING OF BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN. STUCK WITH A BLEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. OTHER THING OF NOTE, AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY. EVEN THOUGH THE
FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE OVERNIGHT, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF T-STORMS FOR SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

MONDAY: FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW MEANING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS TO
EXACTLY HOW CHILLY THE AIR WILL BE, SO TOOK THE BLEND. UPPER 50S
(NORTH) TO LOW 60S (SOUTH) SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. COULD
ALSO BE FAIRLY BREEZY/GUSTY AS 850MB FLOW IS 30 TO 40KNOTS AND WITH
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN, WE SHOULD HAVE A FAIRLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WHICH COULD TAP INTO SOME OF THOSE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY MVFR WITH PERIODIC IFR CEILINGS
THROUGH MID-TUESDAY AM, BECOMING ALL VFR LATER TUESDAY AM. MVFR
MIST POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT MSS.

STEADIER RAIN HAS ENDED, LEAVING CONTINUED LOW CEILINGS (1-1.5KFT
COMMON). EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT MSS WHERE INDICATIONS ARE THAT
CEILINGS WOULD LIFT SOONER, BUT GIVEN NARROW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
LIGHT FOG/MIST WOULD ALSO DEVELOP THERE. WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY
(UNDER 5 KTS).

SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WHEN LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS WHICH
WOULD THEN LIFT THE CEILINGS TOWARD VFR, ROUGHLY FROM 14 TO 18Z.
TAFS SHOW MVFR DECK LIFTING TO VFR IN 15-16Z PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 12Z WED: VFR.
12Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.
THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.
FRI - SAT: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022312
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
712 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
BY 00Z THIS EVENING MOST OF RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF VERMONT
WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING. CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH BLOCKED LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW. NO
FURTHER SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. MAY HAVE SOME
CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH A FEW
COLDER SPOTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND SOME WARMER SPOTS REACHING
THE LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN
VERMONT ZONES AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE
SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...GOING WITH A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE PERIOD. AREA WILL BE IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW/MID
LEVELS AS A LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE, THE
REGION WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WEAK RIDGING. THUS LOOKING AT RATHER
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MODELS ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOME OF THE
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWEST 6000FT OR SO ON WEDNESDAY MEANS
ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT IN. END RESULT -- A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. NO STRONG FORCING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS EVEN A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT
IN A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS. STICKING WITH THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE, HAVE
PAINTED IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. COULD BE A SMIDGE COOLER IN
EASTERN SECTIONS THANKS TO THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC
AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR, AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS DIVERGE MUCH
MORE COME SUNDAY. THE QUICK SUMMARY IS THAT WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
SHOWERS ABOUT THURSDAY & FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD BE AN OUTSTANDING
SPRING DAY, BUT SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH FOR SUNDAY. COULD BE A BIT COOL AND BREEZY FOR MONDAY.

I`LL JUST TAKE IT DAY BY DAY FOR EXTRA DETAILS:

THURSDAY: UPPER TROF WILL BE DIGGING PRETTY FAR SOUTH DURING THE
DAY, AND BEGINNING TO CUT-OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. FOR OUR AREA, WE`LL BE STUCK IN A FAIRLY MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW SINCE WE`LL BE NORTH OF THE CUT-OFF. DESPITE THAT, THE
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD (AROUND 10C), SO EVEN
WITH NOT MUCH SUN EXPECTED, WE`LL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S AGAIN.  LOTS OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS.

FRIDAY: CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS TO A POSITION OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW, HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PULLED IN
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW (AND RELATED SURFACE LOW). COULD ACTUALLY
SEE SOME SUN ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS. 925MB TEMPERATURES A
BIT WARMER (10-12C). COULD BE PUSHING 70F IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY,
WHERE I WENT A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE LOTS OF 60S. COULD
STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN SECTIONS AT SOME POINT IN
THE DAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH THE GUIDANCE BLEND TO SHOW SOME 25-35%
POPS IN THOSE AREAS.

SATURDAY: STILL HAVE THE CUT-OFF LOW WOBBLING ABOUT SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE IN IT`S LOCATION, BUT THINKING IT
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT WE`LL BE THE EXCEPTION FOR THE
NORTHEAST AND SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND ADVECTS IN SOME FAIRLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. 925MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 13-15C
RANGE, WHICH UNDER FULL SUN MEANS TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. AT
THIS POINT, MANY OF GUIDANCE OUTPUTS AREN`T THAT WARM, SO HAVE
GENERALLY GONE 3 TO 5F ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BLEND FOR HIGHS. IN THESE
KINDS OF SITUATIONS, COASTAL NEW ENGLAND CAN BE COOL/CLOUDY/DRIZZLY
WITH THE ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW, WHILE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IT`S
THE TOTAL OPPOSITE. TYPICALLY HAPPENS A FEW TIMES EACH SPRING -- AND
I THINK THIS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE CASES.  IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THAT
COOLER/MOIST AIR COULD SNEAK INTO SOUTHEAST VERMONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PRIMARY
MODELS, BUT THE NET RESULT WILL BE A NOTICEABLE COOL-DOWN. THE GFS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 3-5C, WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. THE EURO IS NOT AS COLD, OWING TO
IT`S SLOWER TIMING OF BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN. STUCK WITH A BLEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. OTHER THING OF NOTE, AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY. EVEN THOUGH THE
FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE OVERNIGHT, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF T-STORMS FOR SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

MONDAY: FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW MEANING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS TO
EXACTLY HOW CHILLY THE AIR WILL BE, SO TOOK THE BLEND. UPPER 50S
(NORTH) TO LOW 60S (SOUTH) SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. COULD
ALSO BE FAIRLY BREEZY/GUSTY AS 850MB FLOW IS 30 TO 40KNOTS AND WITH
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN, WE SHOULD HAVE A FAIRLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WHICH COULD TAP INTO SOME OF THOSE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY MVFR WITH PERIODIC IFR CEILINGS
THROUGH MID-TUESDAY AM, BECOMING ALL VFR LATER TUESDAY AM. MVFR
MIST POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT MSS.

STEADIER RAIN HAS ENDED, LEAVING CONTINUED LOW CEILINGS (1-1.5KFT
COMMON). EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT MSS WHERE INDICATIONS ARE THAT
CEILINGS WOULD LIFT SOONER, BUT GIVEN NARROW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
LIGHT FOG/MIST WOULD ALSO DEVELOP THERE. WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY
(UNDER 5 KTS).

SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WHEN LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS WHICH
WOULD THEN LIFT THE CEILINGS TOWARD VFR, ROUGHLY FROM 14 TO 18Z.
TAFS SHOW MVFR DECK LIFTING TO VFR IN 15-16Z PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 12Z WED: VFR.
12Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.
THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.
FRI - SAT: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KOKX 022306
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
706 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-
STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER IS ON TAP AS AN UPPER
TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID
WEEK. PRECEDING THIS TROF...WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE...THE FIRST OF WHICH TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT TO JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MORNING. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT..ALBEIT THERE ARE SOME
SMALL TIMING ISSUES...FOR A DECENT BANDED RAIN EVENT LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COUPLED WITH A VORT
APPROACHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE ABOUT HALF TO ONE
INCH OF RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS LI. THE
RAIN WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SW TO NE WITH ABOUT A 3 TO 5
HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL WAVE
AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...ADDED THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT PRIOR TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL
BE OVERCAST. DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE SMALL THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD OVER AND NE FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE RAIN WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY. GENERALLY THOUGH LOOKING AT LOW RAIN CHANCES BY
AFTERNOON WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PASSING WELL TO THE
EAST AND ONLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH A EVEN A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

ONCE AGAIN...DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE SMALL...WITH HIGHS TUE
IN THE 50S...WITH LOWS TUE NIGHT ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER. THIS
WILL EQUATE TO WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THE REGARDING CUTOFF LOW THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY TRACKS SE TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO
SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE COAST ON SATURDAY AS A NEW NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS ON SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THERE IS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES EXIST IN ANY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
DEVELOPS ON A STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE
DEPICTED WITH THE LATEST MODELS WHICH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH THE
DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HAVE ALSO ELECTED TO REMAIN PERSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GENERALLY CHANCE POPS. TIMING ENERGY
WITHING THE CUTOFF LOW REMAINS DIFFICULT. IT WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE
WASH OUT...BUT PERIODS OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME. THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE SIGNALING THAT FRIDAY MAY BE
THE DAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THIS IS WHEN THE CUTOFF LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NE TOWARDS THE AREA AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SHOW A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...POPS INCREASE BACK TO CHANCE.

AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...BUT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS STILL DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES COULD COME CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRES SLOWLY APPROACHES NY AIRSPACE TONIGHT...AND WILL PASS SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCT/BKN MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING IN WAKE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 00Z ACROSS
OUTLYING AIRPORTS IF CLEARING IS MORE PRONOUNCED.

THEN EXPECTING RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z
TONIGHT...WITH CIGS/VSBY DROPPING BACK TO IFR...POSSIBLY LIFR.
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC/NJ METRO AND LI
TERMINALS. RA/TSRA ENDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z FROM SW TO NE.

CIGS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TO MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH VSBY LIKELY IMPROVING QUICKER TO MVFR
THEN VFR THROUGH THE MORNING.

LIGHT S/SW WINDS BECOMING LGT/VRB THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME NE 5-10
KT LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON TUE...POSSIBLY VEERING SE LATE TUE.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB OF LIFR OR LOWER CONDS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
00Z AND 05Z IN STRATUS/FOG. CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB OF LIFR OR LOWER CONDS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
00Z AND 05Z IN STRATUS/FOG. CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN
RAIN/FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SEAS AROUND 5 FT LATE TUE AFT/EARLY EVE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE
OF AN SCA. NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUE
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ON ALL COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO WINDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OCEAN SEAS MAY COME
CLOSE TO 5 FT AT TIMES WITH A PERSISTENT SE SWELL...MAINLY ON THE
WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO AN INCH IS FORECAST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
FALL ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WITH THE LOWER END BEING
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MINOR
NUISANCE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DW/FEB
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 022306
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
706 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-
STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER IS ON TAP AS AN UPPER
TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID
WEEK. PRECEDING THIS TROF...WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE...THE FIRST OF WHICH TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT TO JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MORNING. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT..ALBEIT THERE ARE SOME
SMALL TIMING ISSUES...FOR A DECENT BANDED RAIN EVENT LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COUPLED WITH A VORT
APPROACHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE ABOUT HALF TO ONE
INCH OF RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS LI. THE
RAIN WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SW TO NE WITH ABOUT A 3 TO 5
HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL WAVE
AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...ADDED THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT PRIOR TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL
BE OVERCAST. DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE SMALL THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD OVER AND NE FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE RAIN WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY. GENERALLY THOUGH LOOKING AT LOW RAIN CHANCES BY
AFTERNOON WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PASSING WELL TO THE
EAST AND ONLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH A EVEN A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

ONCE AGAIN...DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE SMALL...WITH HIGHS TUE
IN THE 50S...WITH LOWS TUE NIGHT ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER. THIS
WILL EQUATE TO WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THE REGARDING CUTOFF LOW THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY TRACKS SE TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO
SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE COAST ON SATURDAY AS A NEW NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS ON SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THERE IS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES EXIST IN ANY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
DEVELOPS ON A STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE
DEPICTED WITH THE LATEST MODELS WHICH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH THE
DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HAVE ALSO ELECTED TO REMAIN PERSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GENERALLY CHANCE POPS. TIMING ENERGY
WITHING THE CUTOFF LOW REMAINS DIFFICULT. IT WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE
WASH OUT...BUT PERIODS OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME. THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE SIGNALING THAT FRIDAY MAY BE
THE DAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THIS IS WHEN THE CUTOFF LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NE TOWARDS THE AREA AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SHOW A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...POPS INCREASE BACK TO CHANCE.

AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...BUT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS STILL DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES COULD COME CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRES SLOWLY APPROACHES NY AIRSPACE TONIGHT...AND WILL PASS SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCT/BKN MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING IN WAKE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 00Z ACROSS
OUTLYING AIRPORTS IF CLEARING IS MORE PRONOUNCED.

THEN EXPECTING RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z
TONIGHT...WITH CIGS/VSBY DROPPING BACK TO IFR...POSSIBLY LIFR.
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC/NJ METRO AND LI
TERMINALS. RA/TSRA ENDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z FROM SW TO NE.

CIGS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TO MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH VSBY LIKELY IMPROVING QUICKER TO MVFR
THEN VFR THROUGH THE MORNING.

LIGHT S/SW WINDS BECOMING LGT/VRB THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME NE 5-10
KT LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON TUE...POSSIBLY VEERING SE LATE TUE.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE OFF BY
1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB OF LIFR OR LOWER CONDS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
00Z AND 05Z IN STRATUS/FOG. CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB OF LIFR OR LOWER CONDS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
00Z AND 05Z IN STRATUS/FOG. CIGS/VSBY IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1 TO 2 HRS TUE MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN
RAIN/FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SEAS AROUND 5 FT LATE TUE AFT/EARLY EVE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE
OF AN SCA. NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUE
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ON ALL COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO WINDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OCEAN SEAS MAY COME
CLOSE TO 5 FT AT TIMES WITH A PERSISTENT SE SWELL...MAINLY ON THE
WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO AN INCH IS FORECAST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
FALL ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WITH THE LOWER END BEING
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MINOR
NUISANCE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DW/FEB
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW




000
FXUS61 KBGM 022246
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
646 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COOL AIR AND SHOWERS IN THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS AFTN/S WV IS EXITING TO THE EAST ATTM ALLOWING A BUBBLE SFC
HIPRES TO BLD INTO THE AREA. OLD TROF LINE/FNT REMAINS DRAPED OVER
THE SE ZONES AND MAY FOCUS A FEW SHWRS OVER THAT AREA THRU THE
NGT. NOTHING STRONG ENUF TO DRY OUT THE MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH
THE INV SO XPCT CLDS...DRIZZLE...AND PTCHY FOG TO CONT OVRNGT.

LATE TNGT...YET ANOTHER WV RUNS UP THE BNDRY AND SHD INCRS THE
CVRG OF SHWRS OVER THE SERN ZONES AFT MIDN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SW FLOW CONTS THRU THE SHRT TERM WITH A LRG UPR TROF DIGGING OVER
THE CNTRL LAKES. THIS WILL CONT THE UNSETTLED WX AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NEWRD ACROSS THE AREA. OLD FNTL BBNDRY DRIFTS SLOWLY TO
THE SE AND SHD BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER CONV BASED PCPN WITH A
DEEP SWLY ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE OPEN GULF.

OVER THE FCST AREA...FRCG IS WEAKER BUT PLENTY OF AVBL MOISTURE
UNDER THE UPR LOW WHICH PROVIDED INSTABILITY WITH IT/S COLD POOL.
SO...XPCT SCT SHWRS TO CONT THRU THE PD WITH NO STRONG SFC OR UPR
FEATURES TO TRIGGER ENHANCED PD OF PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
105 PM UPDATE...

MODELS AGREE THAT A MEAN TROF / BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEK. EVEN AS THE CYCLONE FINALLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY, ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL ROTATE TOWARD
WESTERN NY.

THE RESULT WILL BE A COOL AND SHOWERY FORECAST, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROMISING DAY FOR NICE, MAY-
LIKE WEATHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 500 AND 900 FEET ARE FORECAST AT ITH AND
BGM OVERNIGHT, WITH BOTH SITES EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT TO VFR
BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z ON TUESDAY.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLIDE INTO AVP AROUND 5Z, THEN TAPER OFF MID-
MORNING, POSSIBLY CAUSING MVFR CONDITIONS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...IMPROVING TO VFR.

WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP




000
FXUS61 KALY 022220
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOP FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EDT...THE STEADY RAIN HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY
IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CAPITAL REGION...EXTENDING INTO
THE BERKSHIRES. THIS AREA OF DRIZZLE SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE FROM NW
TO SE THROUGH SUNSET. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

MEANWHILE...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...A BURST OF SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPING W/NW WINDS...HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO
WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD OCCUR IN SOME AREAS BEFORE SUNSET...AS THIS
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPING PERSIST A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS BEFORE
WEAKENING.

AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE MIDWEST
HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. A LOW/MID
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED AN AREA OF RAIN AND
EMBEDDED CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...AND
CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE/EXPAND NORTHEAST. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...FROM THE SE
CATSKILLS INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR N AND W AS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST HRRRX SUGGESTS THAT A
MORE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THIS RAIN SHIELD SEEMS MORE
LIKELY...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND
RADARS...THIS SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR A MORE
NORTHWARD PUSH TO THE RAIN SHIELD AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE CLOSE TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WITH ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE UP TO...OR
EVEN POSSIBLY NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM MOST AREAS FROM SARATOGA
SPRINGS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL
MOST LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE CENTRAL BERKSHIRES
AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WAVE IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...LEAVING MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RAIN ENDING...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESP IN AREAS WHERE A
STEADY RAIN OCCURS IN THE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION...WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS
THE RAIN ENDS EARLIER...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT GREATER...ESP NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRANSLATE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SO...HAVE INDICATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION...THEREFORE REDUCING
CHANCES OF STEADY RAIN ON THU. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TO REFINE POPS JUST YET. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE COOLER SHOULD ANY AREAS OF STEADIER RAINFALL
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
DRYNESS INTERSPERSED.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND EVEN MILDER READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S.  A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF UP TO ONE
HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AS FAR N AND W AS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND SOUTHERN VT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS FROM LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING MAINLY RANGED FROM
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS DID
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. DESPITE
THESE AMTS...ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
ABSORPTION BY GROWING VEGETATION RESULTED IN MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
RIVERS/STREAMS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. LITTLE
IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...THESE AMTS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL...IF
ANY IMPACTS ON RIVERS/STREAMS.

MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 022152
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
552 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...
PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. MORE UNSETTLE
WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVED ACROSS THE STATE EARLIER TODAY...
AND THIS FEATURE HELPED TO GENERATE A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF SOAKING RAIN.
WHILE THAT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING AWAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...
A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ARND 5K FT WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE NIGHT. EVEN IF THERE WERE SOME CLEARING...IT WOULD
LIKELY BE VERY TEMPORARY AS RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A MOIST SFC
WOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE LOW CLOUDS. LOCALIZED UPSLOPE
FLOW WOULD ALSO FAVOR MORE CLOUD COVER. AT LEAST DRIER AIR IN THE
MID LEVEL WOULD KEEP THE NIGHT PCPN FREE. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE
INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SRN TIER AND EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

TUESDAY...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG A STALL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BOARDER. THESE FEATURES ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT OTHER TO INTRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BEST SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
LIKELY KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER
LAKES WITH DRY COOL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE A RATHER POTENT UPPER PV ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH COMPACT UPPER JET STREAK/UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABOVE AND SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL SUPPORTS INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS. HOWEVER GIVEN DYNAMICS
OF THIS SYSTEM AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUSPECT
THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE OVERHEAD AND STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
SETTING UP ACROSS REGION. BASED ON TIMING OF THESE FEATURES SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABLY
REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES AND SURFACE HIGHS/LOWS... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR DELMARVA ON FRIDAY WILL WEAKEN...DRIFT
OFFSHORE OR A LITTLE NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THEN BY EARLY SUNDAY
WILL EVENTUALLY BE EJECTED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM BY AN
APPROACHING AND STRONGER UPPER WAVE. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT ONLY THE COASTAL REGION FROM
CHESAPEAKE BAY TO NEW ENGLAND...AND SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE
EAST TO HAVE NO EFFECT ON WESTERN OR NORTHERN NY.

UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE COASTAL CUTOFF AND THE MORE NORTHERN
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE STRETCHED AND
PHASING INTO A STATIONARY FRONT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL STILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE BUT
SMALLER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAIL THE FRONT AND IMPLIES SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUS WILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE NEW WORKWEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE RATHER MILD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH MID 60S ON FRIDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON
SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS IN PLACE FR MOST AREAS EARLY THIS
EVENING...WHILE IFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SRN TIER.

AS WE PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO
VFR LEVELS...ALTHOUGH ANY CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OR
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A FRESH ROUND OF
STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR CIGS.

ON TUESDAY...DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT ANY
IFR/MVFR CIGS DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION ON BOTH
LAKES TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/RSH
NEAR TERM...AR/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...AR/RSH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 022138
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
538 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. MORE UNSETTLE
WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD BEGINNING TO EXITING THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
LATER TONIGHT. GENERALLY...MOST LOCATIONS HAE REPORTED ANYWHERE
FROM A LITTLE OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH UP TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS
THE AREA. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO END IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES
HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS.
WITH THIS COOL FLOW IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO THE U40S/L50S.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD WILL THIN TO A DEGREE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN SOME LOCATIONS AS A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
SPREADS SOUTH OF THE LAKES. OVERNIGHT...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG A STALL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BOARDER. THESE FEATURES ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT OTHER TO INTRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BEST SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
LIKELY KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER
LAKES WITH DRY COOL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE A RATHER POTENT UPPER PV ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH COMPACT UPPER JET STREAK/UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABOVE AND SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL SUPPORTS INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS. HOWEVER GIVEN DYNAMICS
OF THIS SYSTEM AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUSPECT
THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE OVERHEAD AND STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
SETTING UP ACROSS REGION. BASED ON TIMING OF THESE FEATURES SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABLY
REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES AND SURFACE HIGHS/LOWS... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR DELMARVA ON FRIDAY WILL WEAKEN...DRIFT
OFFSHORE OR A LITTLE NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THEN BY EARLY SUNDAY
WILL EVENTUALLY BE EJECTED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM BY AN
APPROACHING AND STRONGER UPPER WAVE. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT ONLY THE COASTAL REGION FROM
CHESAPEAKE BAY TO NEW ENGLAND...AND SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE
EAST TO HAVE NO EFFECT ON WESTERN OR NORTHERN NY.

UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE COASTAL CUTOFF AND THE MORE NORTHERN
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE STRETCHED AND
PHASING INTO A STATIONARY FRONT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL STILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE BUT
SMALLER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAIL THE FRONT AND IMPLIES SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUS WILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE NEW WORKWEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE RATHER MILD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH MID 60S ON FRIDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON
SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE HAS LEFT
KBUF/KIAG/KROC WITH IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
AT KJHW.

ALTHOUGH SLOW...EXPECT IMPROVING CIGS FOR KBUF/KIAG AND
KROC AS SOME DRIER AIR HELPS TO DIMINISH THE LOW CLOUD DECK. FOR
KJHW...WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IT WILL BE UNLIKELY THAT
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE ALL THAT MUCH UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AND ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.

FURTHER EAST...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KART WITH AN OCCASIONAL
PERIOD OF REDUCED VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THROUGH 19Z.
AFTER 19Z...KART SHOULD EXPERIENCE IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBYS AS THE
SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE VFR AT MOST TAF SITES(KBUF/KIAG/KROC AND KART).
HOWEVER...WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE PRESENT AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
SFC FLOW THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHER TIER MAY HAVE ISSUES WITH
LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE VFR AT
ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION ON BOTH
LAKES TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR




000
FXUS61 KBUF 022138
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
538 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. MORE UNSETTLE
WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD BEGINNING TO EXITING THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
LATER TONIGHT. GENERALLY...MOST LOCATIONS HAE REPORTED ANYWHERE
FROM A LITTLE OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH UP TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS
THE AREA. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO END IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES
HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS.
WITH THIS COOL FLOW IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO THE U40S/L50S.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD WILL THIN TO A DEGREE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN SOME LOCATIONS AS A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
SPREADS SOUTH OF THE LAKES. OVERNIGHT...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG A STALL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BOARDER. THESE FEATURES ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT OTHER TO INTRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BEST SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
LIKELY KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER
LAKES WITH DRY COOL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE A RATHER POTENT UPPER PV ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH COMPACT UPPER JET STREAK/UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABOVE AND SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL SUPPORTS INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS. HOWEVER GIVEN DYNAMICS
OF THIS SYSTEM AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUSPECT
THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE OVERHEAD AND STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
SETTING UP ACROSS REGION. BASED ON TIMING OF THESE FEATURES SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABLY
REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES AND SURFACE HIGHS/LOWS... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR DELMARVA ON FRIDAY WILL WEAKEN...DRIFT
OFFSHORE OR A LITTLE NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THEN BY EARLY SUNDAY
WILL EVENTUALLY BE EJECTED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM BY AN
APPROACHING AND STRONGER UPPER WAVE. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT ONLY THE COASTAL REGION FROM
CHESAPEAKE BAY TO NEW ENGLAND...AND SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE
EAST TO HAVE NO EFFECT ON WESTERN OR NORTHERN NY.

UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE COASTAL CUTOFF AND THE MORE NORTHERN
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE STRETCHED AND
PHASING INTO A STATIONARY FRONT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL STILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE BUT
SMALLER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAIL THE FRONT AND IMPLIES SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUS WILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE NEW WORKWEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE RATHER MILD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH MID 60S ON FRIDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON
SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE HAS LEFT
KBUF/KIAG/KROC WITH IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
AT KJHW.

ALTHOUGH SLOW...EXPECT IMPROVING CIGS FOR KBUF/KIAG AND
KROC AS SOME DRIER AIR HELPS TO DIMINISH THE LOW CLOUD DECK. FOR
KJHW...WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IT WILL BE UNLIKELY THAT
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE ALL THAT MUCH UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AND ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.

FURTHER EAST...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KART WITH AN OCCASIONAL
PERIOD OF REDUCED VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THROUGH 19Z.
AFTER 19Z...KART SHOULD EXPERIENCE IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBYS AS THE
SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE VFR AT MOST TAF SITES(KBUF/KIAG/KROC AND KART).
HOWEVER...WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE PRESENT AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
SFC FLOW THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHER TIER MAY HAVE ISSUES WITH
LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE VFR AT
ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION ON BOTH
LAKES TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR




000
FXUS61 KBUF 022138
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
538 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. MORE UNSETTLE
WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD BEGINNING TO EXITING THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
LATER TONIGHT. GENERALLY...MOST LOCATIONS HAE REPORTED ANYWHERE
FROM A LITTLE OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH UP TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS
THE AREA. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO END IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES
HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS.
WITH THIS COOL FLOW IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO THE U40S/L50S.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD WILL THIN TO A DEGREE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN SOME LOCATIONS AS A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
SPREADS SOUTH OF THE LAKES. OVERNIGHT...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG A STALL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BOARDER. THESE FEATURES ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT OTHER TO INTRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BEST SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
LIKELY KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER
LAKES WITH DRY COOL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE A RATHER POTENT UPPER PV ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH COMPACT UPPER JET STREAK/UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABOVE AND SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL SUPPORTS INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS. HOWEVER GIVEN DYNAMICS
OF THIS SYSTEM AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUSPECT
THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE OVERHEAD AND STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
SETTING UP ACROSS REGION. BASED ON TIMING OF THESE FEATURES SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABLY
REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES AND SURFACE HIGHS/LOWS... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR DELMARVA ON FRIDAY WILL WEAKEN...DRIFT
OFFSHORE OR A LITTLE NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THEN BY EARLY SUNDAY
WILL EVENTUALLY BE EJECTED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM BY AN
APPROACHING AND STRONGER UPPER WAVE. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT ONLY THE COASTAL REGION FROM
CHESAPEAKE BAY TO NEW ENGLAND...AND SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE
EAST TO HAVE NO EFFECT ON WESTERN OR NORTHERN NY.

UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE COASTAL CUTOFF AND THE MORE NORTHERN
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE STRETCHED AND
PHASING INTO A STATIONARY FRONT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL STILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE BUT
SMALLER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAIL THE FRONT AND IMPLIES SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUS WILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE NEW WORKWEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE RATHER MILD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH MID 60S ON FRIDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON
SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE HAS LEFT
KBUF/KIAG/KROC WITH IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
AT KJHW.

ALTHOUGH SLOW...EXPECT IMPROVING CIGS FOR KBUF/KIAG AND
KROC AS SOME DRIER AIR HELPS TO DIMINISH THE LOW CLOUD DECK. FOR
KJHW...WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IT WILL BE UNLIKELY THAT
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE ALL THAT MUCH UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AND ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.

FURTHER EAST...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KART WITH AN OCCASIONAL
PERIOD OF REDUCED VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THROUGH 19Z.
AFTER 19Z...KART SHOULD EXPERIENCE IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBYS AS THE
SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE VFR AT MOST TAF SITES(KBUF/KIAG/KROC AND KART).
HOWEVER...WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE PRESENT AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
SFC FLOW THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHER TIER MAY HAVE ISSUES WITH
LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE VFR AT
ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION ON BOTH
LAKES TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR




000
FXUS61 KBUF 022138
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
538 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. MORE UNSETTLE
WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD BEGINNING TO EXITING THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
LATER TONIGHT. GENERALLY...MOST LOCATIONS HAE REPORTED ANYWHERE
FROM A LITTLE OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH UP TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS
THE AREA. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO END IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES
HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS.
WITH THIS COOL FLOW IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO THE U40S/L50S.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD WILL THIN TO A DEGREE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN SOME LOCATIONS AS A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
SPREADS SOUTH OF THE LAKES. OVERNIGHT...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG A STALL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BOARDER. THESE FEATURES ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT OTHER TO INTRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BEST SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
LIKELY KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER
LAKES WITH DRY COOL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE A RATHER POTENT UPPER PV ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH COMPACT UPPER JET STREAK/UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABOVE AND SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL SUPPORTS INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS. HOWEVER GIVEN DYNAMICS
OF THIS SYSTEM AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUSPECT
THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE OVERHEAD AND STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
SETTING UP ACROSS REGION. BASED ON TIMING OF THESE FEATURES SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABLY
REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES AND SURFACE HIGHS/LOWS... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR DELMARVA ON FRIDAY WILL WEAKEN...DRIFT
OFFSHORE OR A LITTLE NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THEN BY EARLY SUNDAY
WILL EVENTUALLY BE EJECTED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM BY AN
APPROACHING AND STRONGER UPPER WAVE. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT ONLY THE COASTAL REGION FROM
CHESAPEAKE BAY TO NEW ENGLAND...AND SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE
EAST TO HAVE NO EFFECT ON WESTERN OR NORTHERN NY.

UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE COASTAL CUTOFF AND THE MORE NORTHERN
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE STRETCHED AND
PHASING INTO A STATIONARY FRONT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL STILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE BUT
SMALLER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAIL THE FRONT AND IMPLIES SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUS WILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE NEW WORKWEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE RATHER MILD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH MID 60S ON FRIDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON
SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE HAS LEFT
KBUF/KIAG/KROC WITH IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
AT KJHW.

ALTHOUGH SLOW...EXPECT IMPROVING CIGS FOR KBUF/KIAG AND
KROC AS SOME DRIER AIR HELPS TO DIMINISH THE LOW CLOUD DECK. FOR
KJHW...WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IT WILL BE UNLIKELY THAT
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE ALL THAT MUCH UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AND ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.

FURTHER EAST...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KART WITH AN OCCASIONAL
PERIOD OF REDUCED VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THROUGH 19Z.
AFTER 19Z...KART SHOULD EXPERIENCE IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBYS AS THE
SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE VFR AT MOST TAF SITES(KBUF/KIAG/KROC AND KART).
HOWEVER...WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE PRESENT AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
SFC FLOW THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHER TIER MAY HAVE ISSUES WITH
LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE VFR AT
ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION ON BOTH
LAKES TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR




000
FXUS61 KALY 022049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
449 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOP FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 440 PM EDT...THE STEADY RAIN HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE
CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CAPITAL
REGION..EXTENDING INTO THE BERKSHIRES. THIS AREA OF DRIZZLE SHOULD
SLOWLY ERODE FROM NW TO SE THROUGH SUNSET. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND/OR PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

MEANWHILE...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...A BURST OF SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPING W/NW WINDS...HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO
WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD OCCUR IN SOME AREAS BEFORE SUNSET...AS THIS
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPING PERSIST A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS BEFORE
WEAKENING.

AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE MIDWEST
HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. A LOW/MID
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED AN AREA OF RAIN AND
EMBEDDED CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...AND
CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE/EXPAND NORTHEAST. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...FROM THE SE
CATSKILLS INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR N AND W AS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST HRRRX SUGGESTS THAT A
MORE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THIS RAIN SHIELD SEEMS MORE
LIKELY...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND
RADARS...THIS SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR A MORE
NORTHWARD PUSH TO THE RAIN SHIELD AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE CLOSE TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WITH ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE UP TO...OR
EVEN POSSIBLY NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM MOST AREAS FROM SARATOGA
SPRINGS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL
MOST LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE CENTRAL BERKSHIRES
AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WAVE IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...LEAVING MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RAIN ENDING...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESP IN AREAS WHERE A
STEADY RAIN OCCURS IN THE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION...WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS
THE RAIN ENDS EARLIER...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT GREATER...ESP NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRANSLATE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SO...HAVE INDICATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION...THEREFORE REDUCING
CHANCES OF STEADY RAIN ON THU. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TO REFINE POPS JUST YET. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE COOLER SHOULD ANY AREAS OF STEADIER RAINFALL
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
DRYNESS INTERSPERSED.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND EVEN MILDER READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S.  A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF UP TO ONE
HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AS FAR N AND W AS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND SOUTHERN VT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS FROM LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING MAINLY RANGED FROM
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS DID
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. DESPITE
THESE AMTS...ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
ABSORPTION BY GROWING VEGETATION RESULTED IN MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
RIVERS/STREAMS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. LITTLE
IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...THESE AMTS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL...IF
ANY IMPACTS ON RIVERS/STREAMS.

MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
BY 00Z THIS EVENING MOST OF RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF VERMONT
WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING. CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH BLOCKED LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW. NO
FURTHER SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. MAY HAVE SOME
CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH A FEW
COLDER SPOTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND SOME WARMER SPOTS REACHING
THE LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN
VERMONT ZONES AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE
SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...GOING WITH A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE PERIOD. AREA WILL BE IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW/MID
LEVELS AS A LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE, THE
REGION WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WEAK RIDGING. THUS LOOKING AT RATHER
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MODELS ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOME OF THE
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWEST 6000FT OR SO ON WEDNESDAY MEANS
ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT IN. END RESULT -- A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. NO STRONG FORCING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS EVEN A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT
IN A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS. STICKING WITH THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE, HAVE
PAINTED IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. COULD BE A SMIDGE COOLER IN
EASTERN SECTIONS THANKS TO THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC
AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR, AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS DIVERGE MUCH
MORE COME SUNDAY. THE QUICK SUMMARY IS THAT WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
SHOWERS ABOUT THURSDAY & FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD BE AN OUTSTANDING
SPRING DAY, BUT SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH FOR SUNDAY. COULD BE A BIT COOL AND BREEZY FOR MONDAY.

I`LL JUST TAKE IT DAY BY DAY FOR EXTRA DETAILS:

THURSDAY: UPPER TROF WILL BE DIGGING PRETTY FAR SOUTH DURING THE
DAY, AND BEGINNING TO CUT-OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. FOR OUR AREA, WE`LL BE STUCK IN A FAIRLY MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW SINCE WE`LL BE NORTH OF THE CUT-OFF. DESPITE THAT, THE
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD (AROUND 10C), SO EVEN
WITH NOT MUCH SUN EXPECTED, WE`LL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S AGAIN.  LOTS OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS.

FRIDAY: CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS TO A POSITION OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW, HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PULLED IN
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW (AND RELATED SURFACE LOW). COULD ACTUALLY
SEE SOME SUN ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS. 925MB TEMPERATURES A
BIT WARMER (10-12C). COULD BE PUSHING 70F IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY,
WHERE I WENT A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE LOTS OF 60S. COULD
STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN SECTIONS AT SOME POINT IN
THE DAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH THE GUIDANCE BLEND TO SHOW SOME 25-35%
POPS IN THOSE AREAS.

SATURDAY: STILL HAVE THE CUT-OFF LOW WOBBLING ABOUT SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE IN IT`S LOCATION, BUT THINKING IT
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT WE`LL BE THE EXCEPTION FOR THE
NORTHEAST AND SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND ADVECTS IN SOME FAIRLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. 925MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 13-15C
RANGE, WHICH UNDER FULL SUN MEANS TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. AT
THIS POINT, MANY OF GUIDANCE OUTPUTS AREN`T THAT WARM, SO HAVE
GENERALLY GONE 3 TO 5F ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BLEND FOR HIGHS. IN THESE
KINDS OF SITUATIONS, COASTAL NEW ENGLAND CAN BE COOL/CLOUDY/DRIZZLY
WITH THE ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW, WHILE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IT`S
THE TOTAL OPPOSITE. TYPICALLY HAPPENS A FEW TIMES EACH SPRING -- AND
I THINK THIS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE CASES.  IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THAT
COOLER/MOIST AIR COULD SNEAK INTO SOUTHEAST VERMONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PRIMARY
MODELS, BUT THE NET RESULT WILL BE A NOTICEABLE COOL-DOWN. THE GFS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 3-5C, WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. THE EURO IS NOT AS COLD, OWING TO
IT`S SLOWER TIMING OF BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN. STUCK WITH A BLEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. OTHER THING OF NOTE, AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY. EVEN THOUGH THE
FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE OVERNIGHT, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF T-STORMS FOR SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

MONDAY: FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW MEANING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS TO
EXACTLY HOW CHILLY THE AIR WILL BE, SO TOOK THE BLEND. UPPER 50S
(NORTH) TO LOW 60S (SOUTH) SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. COULD
ALSO BE FAIRLY BREEZY/GUSTY AS 850MB FLOW IS 30 TO 40KNOTS AND WITH
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN, WE SHOULD HAVE A FAIRLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WHICH COULD TAP INTO SOME OF THOSE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR INTERVALS
FROM LIGHT RAIN AND MIST. LOW CEILINGS WILL OBSCURE MTNS. SOME
DROPS TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL VERY SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER THE
RAIN MOVES OUT. THERE IS AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT
HAVE LEFT THIS OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
CURRENTLY NORTHEASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z TUE - WED: BECOMING
VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN
SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY. FRI - SAT: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KOKX 021926
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
326 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST...PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER IS ON TAP AS AN UPPER
TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID
WEEK. PRECEDING THIS TROF...WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE...THE FIRST OF WHICH EJECTS FROM THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT TO
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MORNING. 12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT..ALBEIT THERE ARE SOME SMALL TIMING ISSUES...FOR
A DECENT BANDED RAIN EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COUPLED WITH A VORT APPROACHING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE ABOUT HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS LI. THE RAIN WILL DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SW TO NE WITH ABOUT A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE OVERCAST...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY THIS EVE FOR SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL WAVE. DIURNAL TEMP
RANGES WILL BE SMALL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD
OVER AND NE FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE RAIN WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY. GENERALLY THOUGH LOOKING AT LOW RAIN CHANCES BY
AFTERNOON WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PASSING WELL TO THE
EAST AND ONLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH A EVEN A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

ONCE AGAIN...DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE SMALL...WITH HIGHS TUE
IN THE 50S...WITH LOWS TUE NIGHT ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER. THIS
WILL EQUATE TO WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THE REGARDING CUTOFF LOW THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY TRACKS SE TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO
SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE COAST ON SATURDAY AS A NEW NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS ON SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THERE IS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES EXIST IN ANY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
DEVELOPS ON A STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE
DEPICTED WITH THE LATEST MODELS WHICH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH THE
DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HAVE ALSO ELECTED TO REMAIN PERSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GENERALLY CHANCE POPS. TIMING ENERGY
WITHING THE CUTOFF LOW REMAINS DIFFICULT. IT WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE
WASH OUT...BUT PERIODS OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME. THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE SIGNALING THAT FRIDAY MAY BE
THE DAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THIS IS WHEN THE CUTOFF LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NE TOWARDS THE AREA AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SHOW A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...POPS INCREASE BACK TO CHANCE.

AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...BUT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS STILL DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES COULD COME CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRES SLOWLY APPROACHES NY AIRSPACE TONIGHT...AND WILL PASS SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

MVFR/IFR FORECAST WITH CIGS GENERALLY 700-1200 FT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 500 FT THIS EVENING...AND VSBYS WILL DROP AS
WELL AS FOG DEVELOPS.

RAIN DEVELOPS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL IMPACT
KNYC/KISP. VSBYS WILL DROP TO 1SM...AND CIGS WILL BE 500 FT OR
LESS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. CONDS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS...BCMG LGT/VRB THIS EVENING. E-NE WINDS
THEN INCREASE TO 5-10 KT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS AROUND 1000 FT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS AROUND 1000 FT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN
RAIN/FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SEAS AROUND 5 FT LATE TUE AFT/EARLY EVE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE
OF AN SCA. NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUE
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ON ALL COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO WINDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OCEAN SEAS MAY COME
CLOSE TO 5 FT AT TIMES WITH A PERSISTENT SE SWELL...MAINLY ON THE
WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO AN INCH IS FORECAST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
FALL ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WITH THE LOWER END BEING
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MINOR
NUISANCE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 021925
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
325 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST...PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER IS ON TAP AS AN UPPER
TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID
WEEK. PRECEDING THIS TROF...WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE...THE FIRST OF WHICH EJECTS FROM THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT TO
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MORNING. 12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT..ALBEIT THERE ARE SOME SMALL TIMING ISSUES...FOR
A DECENT BANDED RAIN EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COUPLED WITH A VORT APPROACHING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE ABOUT HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS LI. THE RAIN WILL DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SW TO NE WITH ABOUT A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE OVERCAST...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY THIS EVE FOR SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL WAVE. DIURNAL TEMP
RANGES WILL BE SMALL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD
OVER AND NE FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODERATE RAIN WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY. GENERALLY THOUGH LOOKING AT LOW RAIN CHANCES BY
AFTERNOON WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PASSING WELL TO THE
EAST AND ONLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH A EVEN A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

ONCE AGAIN...DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE SMALL...WITH HIGHS TUE
IN THE 50S...WITH LOWS TUE NIGHT ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER. THIS
WILL EQUATE TO WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THE REGARDING CUTOFF LOW THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY TRACKS SE TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO
SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE COAST ON SATURDAY AS A NEW NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS ON SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THERE IS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES EXIST IN ANY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
DEVELOPS ON A STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE
DEPICTED WITH THE LATEST MODELS WHICH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH THE
DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HAVE ALSO ELECTED TO REMAIN PERSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GENERALLY CHANCE POPS. TIMING ENERGY
WITHING THE CUTOFF LOW REMAINS DIFFICULT. IT WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE
WASH OUT...BUT PERIODS OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME. THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE SIGNALING THAT FRIDAY MAY BE
THE DAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THIS IS WHEN THE CUTOFF LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NE TOWARDS THE AREA AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA.

THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SHOW A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...POPS INCREASE BACK TO CHANCE.

AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...BUT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS STILL DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES COULD COME CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRES SLOWLY APPROACHES NY AIRSPACE TONIGHT...AND WILL PASS SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

MVFR/IFR FORECAST WITH CIGS GENERALLY 700-1200 FT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 500 FT THIS EVENING...AND VSBYS WILL DROP AS
WELL AS FOG DEVELOPS.

RAIN DEVELOPS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL IMPACT
KNYC/KISP. VSBYS WILL DROP TO 1SM...AND CIGS WILL BE 500 FT OR
LESS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. CONDS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS...BCMG LGT/VRB THIS EVENING. E-NE WINDS
THEN INCREASE TO 5-10 KT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS AROUND 1000 FT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS AROUND 1000 FT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN
RAIN/FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SEAS AROUND 5 FT LATE TUE AFT/EARLY EVE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE
OF AN SCA. NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUE
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ON ALL COASTAL WATERS WILL LEAD TO WINDS
BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OCEAN SEAS MAY COME
CLOSE TO 5 FT AT TIMES WITH A PERSISTENT SE SWELL...MAINLY ON THE
WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO AN INCH IS FORECAST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
FALL ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...WITH THE LOWER END BEING
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MINOR
NUISANCE FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021916
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
316 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
BY 00Z THIS EVENING MOST OF RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF VERMONT
WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING. CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH BLOCKED LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW. NO
FURTHER SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. MAY HAVE SOME
CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH A FEW
COLDER SPOTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND SOME WARMER SPOTS REACHING
THE LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN
VERMONT ZONES AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE
SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DRY...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S. UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA AND BEGIN TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL BE THE UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE AROUND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OUR AREA WILL STILL BE
INFLUENCED BY THIS SYSTEM AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUS HAVE KEPT THAT IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST.
THE LOW MAY FINALLY GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO HAVE LITTLE
INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
TIME PERIOD. THIS COULD VERY WELL BE OUR ONLY STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN FROM
CANADA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR A BETTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST AN
OVERALL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH EVEN
SOME LOCATIONS HAVING A SHOT AT 70 IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR INTERVALS
FROM LIGHT RAIN AND MIST. LOW CEILINGS WILL OBSCURE MTNS. SOME
DROPS TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL VERY SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER THE
RAIN MOVES OUT. THERE IS AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT
HAVE LEFT THIS OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
CURRENTLY NORTHEASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z TUE - WED: BECOMING
VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN
SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY. FRI - SAT: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBUF 021848
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
248 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. MORE UNSETTLE
WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD BEGINNING TO EXITING THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
LATER TONIGHT. GENERALLY...MOST LOCATIONS HAE REPORTED ANYWHERE
FROM A LITTLE OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH UP TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS
THE AREA. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO END IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES
HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS.
WITH THIS COOL FLOW IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO THE U40S/L50S.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD WILL THIN TO A DEGREE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN SOME LOCATIONS AS A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
SPREADS SOUTH OF THE LAKES. OVERNIGHT...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG A STALL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BOARDER. THESE FEATURES ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT OTHER TO INTRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BEST SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
LIKELY KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER
LAKES WITH DRY COOL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE A RATHER POTENT UPPER PV ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH COMPACT UPPER JET STREAK/UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABOVE AND SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL SUPPORTS INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS. HOWEVER GIVEN DYNAMICS
OF THIS SYSTEM AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUSPECT
THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE OVERHEAD AND STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
SETTING UP ACROSS REGION. BASED ON TIMING OF THESE FEATURES SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABLY
REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY EDGE UP THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY
AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE A PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
PROGGED TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST ACROSS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...THIS IS MOSTLY A REFLECTION
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. IN
REALITY...AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW STAYS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AS
CURRENTLY PROGGED...IT SHOULD BE A DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE AS AN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FLIRT WITH THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
MANY AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK
TO CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE HAS LEFT
KBUF/KIAG/KROC WITH IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
AT KJHW.

ALTHOUGH SLOW...EXPECT IMPROVING CIGS FOR KBUF/KIAG AND
KROC AS SOME DRIER AIR HELPS TO DIMINISH THE LOW CLOUD DECK. FOR
KJHW...WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IT WILL BE UNLIKELY THAT
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE ALL THAT MUCH UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AND ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.

FURTHER EAST...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KART WITH AN OCCASIONAL
PERIOD OF REDUCED VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THROUGH 19Z.
AFTER 19Z...KART SHOULD EXPERIENCE IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBYS AS THE
SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE VFR AT MOST TAF SITES(KBUF/KIAG/KROC AND KART).
HOWEVER...WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE PRESENT AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
SFC FLOW THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHER TIER MAY HAVE ISSUES WITH
LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE VFR AT
ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION ON BOTH
LAKES TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR




000
FXUS61 KBUF 021848
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
248 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. MORE UNSETTLE
WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD BEGINNING TO EXITING THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
LATER TONIGHT. GENERALLY...MOST LOCATIONS HAE REPORTED ANYWHERE
FROM A LITTLE OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH UP TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS
THE AREA. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO END IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES
HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS.
WITH THIS COOL FLOW IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO THE U40S/L50S.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD WILL THIN TO A DEGREE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN SOME LOCATIONS AS A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
SPREADS SOUTH OF THE LAKES. OVERNIGHT...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG A STALL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BOARDER. THESE FEATURES ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT OTHER TO INTRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BEST SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
LIKELY KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER
LAKES WITH DRY COOL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE A RATHER POTENT UPPER PV ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH COMPACT UPPER JET STREAK/UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABOVE AND SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL SUPPORTS INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS. HOWEVER GIVEN DYNAMICS
OF THIS SYSTEM AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUSPECT
THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE OVERHEAD AND STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
SETTING UP ACROSS REGION. BASED ON TIMING OF THESE FEATURES SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABLY
REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY EDGE UP THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY
AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE A PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
PROGGED TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST ACROSS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...THIS IS MOSTLY A REFLECTION
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. IN
REALITY...AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW STAYS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AS
CURRENTLY PROGGED...IT SHOULD BE A DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE AS AN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FLIRT WITH THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
MANY AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK
TO CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE HAS LEFT
KBUF/KIAG/KROC WITH IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
AT KJHW.

ALTHOUGH SLOW...EXPECT IMPROVING CIGS FOR KBUF/KIAG AND
KROC AS SOME DRIER AIR HELPS TO DIMINISH THE LOW CLOUD DECK. FOR
KJHW...WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IT WILL BE UNLIKELY THAT
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE ALL THAT MUCH UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AND ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.

FURTHER EAST...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KART WITH AN OCCASIONAL
PERIOD OF REDUCED VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THROUGH 19Z.
AFTER 19Z...KART SHOULD EXPERIENCE IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBYS AS THE
SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE VFR AT MOST TAF SITES(KBUF/KIAG/KROC AND KART).
HOWEVER...WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE PRESENT AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
SFC FLOW THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHER TIER MAY HAVE ISSUES WITH
LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE VFR AT
ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION ON BOTH
LAKES TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR




000
FXUS61 KBUF 021838
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
238 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. MORE UNSETTLE
WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD BEGINNING TO EXITING THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
LATER TONIGHT. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO END IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH OVERCAST SKIES HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. WITH THIS COOL FLOW IT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE U40S/L50S.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD WILL THIN TO A DEGREE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN SOME LOCATIONS AS A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
SPREADS SOUTH OF THE LAKES. OVERNIGHT...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG A STALL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BOARDER. THESE FEATURES ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT OTHER TO INTRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BEST SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
LIKELY KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER
LAKES WITH DRY COOL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE A RATHER POTENT UPPER PV ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH COMPACT UPPER JET STREAK/UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABOVE AND SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL SUPPORTS INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS. HOWEVER GIVEN DYNAMICS
OF THIS SYSTEM AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUSPECT
THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE OVERHEAD AND STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
SETTING UP ACROSS REGION. BASED ON TIMING OF THESE FEATURES SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABLY
REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY EDGE UP THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY
AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE A PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
PROGGED TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST ACROSS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...THIS IS MOSTLY A REFLECTION
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. IN
REALITY...AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW STAYS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AS
CURRENTLY PROGGED...IT SHOULD BE A DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE AS AN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FLIRT WITH THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
MANY AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK
TO CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE HAS LEFT
KBUF/KIAG/KROC WITH IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
AT KJHW.

ALTHOUGH SLOW...EXPECT IMPROVING CIGS FOR KBUF/KIAG AND
KROC AS SOME DRIER AIR HELPS TO DIMINISH THE LOW CLOUD DECK. FOR
KJHW...WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IT WILL BE UNLIKELY THAT
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE ALL THAT MUCH UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AND ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.

FURTHER EAST...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KART WITH AN OCCASIONAL
PERIOD OF REDUCED VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THROUGH 19Z.
AFTER 19Z...KART SHOULD EXPERIENCE IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBYS AS THE
SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE VFR AT MOST TAF SITES(KBUF/KIAG/KROC AND KART).
HOWEVER...WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE PRESENT AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
SFC FLOW THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHER TIER MAY HAVE ISSUES WITH
LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE VFR AT
ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION ON BOTH
LAKES TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR




000
FXUS61 KBUF 021834
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
234 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. MORE UNSETTLE
WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD BEGINNING TO EXITING THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
LATER TONIGHT. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO END IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH OVERCAST SKIES HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. WITH THIS COOL FLOW IT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE U40S/L50S.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD WILL THIN TO A DEGREE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN SOME LOCATIONS AS A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
SPREADS SOUTH OF THE LAKES. OVERNIGHT...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG A STALL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BOARDER. THESE FEATURES ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT OTHER TO INTRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BEST SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
LIKELY KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER
LAKES WITH DRY COOL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK AS THE REGION WILL BE CAUGHT IN A RELATIVE LULL IN BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE RIDGING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY
WITH JUST PASSING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 60 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TUESDAY
NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT
ALONG AND WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM THE LAKES. WITH 850-700MB
LAPSE RATES FALLING TO -8C/KM AND MUCAPES POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 250-
500 J/KG...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S WITH 40S ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW IN THE
BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PLOWING IT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE PIEDMONT BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AS TO THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE ECMWF
HINTING AT MORE NORTHERLY 850MB FLOW VS THE EASTERLY FLOW OF THE
GFS...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. BEST SHOWER CHANCES ON THURSDAY WILL
BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NY CLOSEST TO THE CORE OF THE PASSING
UPPER LOW AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS HERE WITH A CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
SHALLOWER LAPSE RATES AND GREATER STABILITY SHOULD RULE OUT ANY
THUNDER. SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD AND
GENERALLY CLOUDY/SHOWERY CONDITIONS...LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S...THOUGH A FEW AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE 40S...RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY EDGE UP THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY
AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE A PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
PROGGED TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST ACROSS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...THIS IS MOSTLY A REFLECTION
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. IN
REALITY...AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW STAYS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AS
CURRENTLY PROGGED...IT SHOULD BE A DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE AS AN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FLIRT WITH THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
MANY AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK
TO CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE HAS LEFT
KBUF/KIAG/KROC WITH IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
AT KJHW.

ALTHOUGH SLOW...EXPECT IMPROVING CIGS FOR KBUF/KIAG AND
KROC AS SOME DRIER AIR HELPS TO DIMINISH THE LOW CLOUD DECK. FOR
KJHW...WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IT WILL BE UNLIKELY THAT
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE ALL THAT MUCH UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AND ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.

FURTHER EAST...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KART WITH AN OCCASIONAL
PERIOD OF REDUCED VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THROUGH 19Z.
AFTER 19Z...KART SHOULD EXPERIENCE IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBYS AS THE
SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE VFR AT MOST TAF SITES(KBUF/KIAG/KROC AND KART).
HOWEVER...WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE PRESENT AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
SFC FLOW THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHER TIER MAY HAVE ISSUES WITH
LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE VFR AT
ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION ON BOTH
LAKES TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR




000
FXUS61 KBGM 021815
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
215 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

OUR AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COOL AIR AND SHOWERS IN THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THIS AFTN/S WV IS EXITING TO THE EAST ATTM ALLOWING A BUBBLE SFC
HIPRES TO BLD INTO THE AREA. OLD TROF LINE/FNT REMAINS DRAPED OVER
THE SE ZONES AND MAY FOCUS A FEW SHWRS OVER THAT AREA THRU THE
NGT. NOTHING STRONG ENUF TO DRY OUT THE MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH
THE INV SO XPCT CLDS...DRIZZLE...AND PTCHY FOG TO CONT OVRNGT.

LATE TNGT...YET ANOTHER WV RUNS UP THE BNDRY AND SHD INCRS THE
CVRG OF SHWRS OVER THE SERN ZONES AFT MIDN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SW FLOW CONTS THRU THE SHRT TERM WITH A LRG UPR TROF DIGGING OVER
THE CNTRL LAKES. THIS WILL CONT THE UNSETTLED WX AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NEWRD ACROSS THE AREA. OLD FNTL BBNDRY DRIFTS SLOWLY TO
THE SE AND SHD BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER CONV BASED PCPN WITH A
DEEP SWLY ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE OPEN GULF.

OVER THE FCST AREA...FRCG IS WEAKER BUT PLENTY OF AVBL MOISTURE
UNDER THE UPR LOW WHICH PROVIDED INSTABILITY WITH IT/S COLD POOL.
SO...XPCT SCT SHWRS TO CONT THRU THE PD WITH NO STRONG SFC OR UPR
FEATURES TO TRIGGER ENHANCED PD OF PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
105 PM UPDATE...

MODELS AGREE THAT A MEAN TROF / BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEK. EVEN AS THE CYCLONE FINALLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY, ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL ROTATE TOWARD
WESTERN NY.

THE RESULT WILL BE A COOL AND SHOWERY FORECAST, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROMISING DAY FOR NICE, MAY-
LIKE WEATHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AS FORECAST, WITH SPOTTY
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS HANGING BACK OVER NY AND PA. AS OFTEN
OCCURS, CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LOWERING BEHIND THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DUE TO THE LOSS OF ATMOSPHERIC MIXING.

AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS IS FORECAST AT ITH AND BGM,
WITH BOTH SITES EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT TO VFR BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z
ON TUESDAY.

TEMPO IFR IS FORECAST FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AT SYR AND
RME.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...IMPROVING TO VFR.

WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP




000
FXUS61 KOKX 021750
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
150 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COMPLEX...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS HAVE EXITED TO THE NE WITH THE PASSING OF A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT STILL WELL TO
THE SW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ACROSS NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT LATE THIS AFT/EARLY
THIS EVE WITH AN APPROACHING SFC TROF.

IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE COULD OCCUR WITH FORECASTED MID LEVEL DRYING ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY
ABOUT 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STALLED
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE.
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AS A RESULT...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING AND
FOCUSED PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...BETTER LIFT WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. RAIN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...TAPERING TO A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN SLOWLY MOVE THE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE AFTER THAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A SPREAD IN DIRECTION
AND SPEED...WITH THE GFS/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE IT
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MOVES IT TOWARDS THE NE.
ALL BRING THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO AN END BY
SATURDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE N IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE
THE REGION GETS INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. SO HAVE
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...WHERE
THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DUE TO DIFFICULTIES ALL MODELS HAVE WITH TIMING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LULL OF MULTIPLE HOURS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO
SPECIFY WHEN THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...IF IT
INDEED HAPPENS.

FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED.
HIGHS SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
PASSES TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR
BOTH PERIODS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE ALSO BASED
ON THE SUPER BLEND...AND SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRES SLOWLY APPROACHES NY AIRSPACE TONIGHT...AND WILL PASS
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

IFR FORECAST. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...RESULTING
IN MVFR CONDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL COVER THIS WITH
TEMPO GROUPS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY EXPECTING CIGS 700-1200 FT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 500 FT THIS EVENING...AND VSBYS WILL DROP AS
WELL AS FOG DEVELOPS.

RAIN DEVELOPS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL IMPACT
KNYC/KISP. VSBYS WILL DROP TO 1SM...AND CIGS WILL BE 500 FT OR
LESS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. CONDS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS...BCMG LGT/VRB THIS EVENING. E-NE WINDS
THEN INCREASE TO 5-10 KT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS AROUND 1000 FT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS AROUND 1000 FT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF IFR CONDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN
RAIN/FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS COULD COME CLOSE TO 5
FT DURING TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP SEAS AT 4 FT.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND.
HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT SE SWELL COULD BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES
INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO INCH EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...THE CITY...AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. NO
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. IN
GENERAL...AMOUNTS EACH DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY
1/4 INCH OR LESS. AS A RESULT...LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT/DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KALY 021738
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
138 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
FROM THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS AN UPPER LOW AND MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...THE STEADIER RAIN SHIELD HAS SHIFTED
NORTH...INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT. AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...THIS REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOSER TO MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AT LEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...ALTHOUGH THE STEADIEST RAIN IS
OVER...AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE COOL MOIST
REGIME LINGERING ACROSS THIS REGION. ALSO...WITH AT LEAST SOME
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...CAN NOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. SO...SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR MUCH OF THIS
AFTERNOON FROM I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH...AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL TO
THE NORTH.

TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO ONLY RISE ANOTHER 1-3 DEGREES FROM CURRENT
LEVELS IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEREFORE LOWERED
FORECAST MAX TEMPS. GENERALLY EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO REACH THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE PASSES DOWNSTREAM...BUT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PIEDMONT AREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY AIDS THE SYSTEM FROM THE OH VALLEY
BY TUE MORNING. OVER RUNNING LIGHT RAINFALL OR SHOWERS SPREADS
N/NE INTO SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING RAINFALL ALL THE WAY NORTH TO ALMOST THE
CAPITAL REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN GUIDANCE AND THE GEFS. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE TUE. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO L40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP DEMARCATION BETWEEN THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH THE SFC WAVE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION...AND WHERE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. WE HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHC AND CHC POPS IN FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY.
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER OVER THE NRN ZONES
WHERE SOME SUNSHINE MAY OCCUR WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION...UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND PARTS OF
SRN VT. EXPECT MID AND U50S FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE LIGHT
RAIN OR SCT SHOWERS.

TUE NIGHT...A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR EARLY ON...BUT ANOTHER
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SW FLOW MAY SPAWN SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE ECMWF/GFS. THE BIGGER
ISSUE IS THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOVER OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DIGGING EQUATORWARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE A MAJOR
PLAYER IN TERMS OF MORE UNSETTLED WX TO CLOSE THE WEEK. LOWS
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS
AND SRN DACKS.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN EVOLVING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS. INITIALLY EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES WILL BRING SCT
SHOWERS TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT. BY THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SCT SHOWERS MAY DIMINISH A
BIT WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. OUR
HIGHEST POPS WED PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS LOOK MORE SEASONABLE
IN THE U50S TO M60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA TO BE DOMINATED BY CUTOFF
LOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES 2-3 SD
BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE 1-2 SD ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECTED WEATHER COOL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE DANK...DREARY WEATHER ON
SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR SATURDAY...LOCAL WEATHER WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE CUTOFF LOW AND PROXIMITY TO EAST
COAST. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS
WITH WINDS TURNING FROM NORTHERLY EARLY SATURDAY...TO WESTERLY BY
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL AT LEAST BRING DRIER CONDITIONS. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS A SPLIT BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND
GEFS ENSEMBLES. BOTH 00Z OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS BRING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GEFS GUIDANCE INDICATES FRONT
WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. BIG
DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST AS OPERATIONAL MODELS WOULD
HAVE A CLOUDY...SHOWERY MOTHERS DAY WHILES GEFS WOULD INDICATE A
BREEZY...FAIR SUMMER LIKE DAY. FOR NOW...CHANCE POPS WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN AFFECTING KGFL...AND MORE RAIN UPSTREAM OF KGFL...SO PERIODS OF
RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF RAIN IS
RESULTING IN SOME PERIODS OF SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE AT KALB.
HOWEVER...RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE KPSF AND KPOU AREAS. MOST
CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION ARE IFR...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND
EVEN JUST INTO THE VFR RANGE HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALSO.

SURROUNDING AREAS ARE IFR...SO PREDOMINANT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN
IFR AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT INDICATING TEMPO MVFR TO VFR FOR BRIEF
PERIODS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE VFR...EXCEPT
FOR SOME POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SOME AREAS...LIKE WHAT IS
OCCURRING AROUND KPOU DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND SATURATED GROUND.  BY
THIS EVENING...MANY AREAS COULD SEE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT SO
LIGHT...IT SHOULD NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES MUCH IF AT ALL...BUT IFR
CEILINGS COULD TREND TOWARD LIFR HEIGHTS.

CEILINGS COULD LIFT THROUGH THE EVENING IN SOME AREAS AS ANOTHER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES KPOU AND KPSF MAINLY.
SO...INDICATING SOME PERIODS OF CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR AND JUST INTO
THE VFR RANGE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT...UNTIL THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES AND BRINGS SOME MORE PERIODS OF RAIN TO KPSF
AND KPOU.

AFTER 12Z-15Z...ALL AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS...EXCEPT
KPOU WHERE SOME RAIN WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL LOCALIZED
FOG...BUT WITH PREDOMINANT CLOUD COVER...NOT INDICATING PREDOMINANT
FOG TOMORROW MORNING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING...SHIFTING TO MAINLY WEST TO NORTH WINDS AT LESS THAN 10
KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP.

TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER RAIN TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER
SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND
SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF LOW. THERE IS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.
WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT FOR THE STRETCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING FRIDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY TODAY...TAPERING OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE
TO RECENT DRYNESS...AND THE VEGETATION IS GREENING UP. THE
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW
FOR THE ALBANY HSA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 021738
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
138 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
FROM THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS AN UPPER LOW AND MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...THE STEADIER RAIN SHIELD HAS SHIFTED
NORTH...INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT. AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...THIS REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOSER TO MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AT LEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...ALTHOUGH THE STEADIEST RAIN IS
OVER...AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE COOL MOIST
REGIME LINGERING ACROSS THIS REGION. ALSO...WITH AT LEAST SOME
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...CAN NOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. SO...SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR MUCH OF THIS
AFTERNOON FROM I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH...AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL TO
THE NORTH.

TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO ONLY RISE ANOTHER 1-3 DEGREES FROM CURRENT
LEVELS IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEREFORE LOWERED
FORECAST MAX TEMPS. GENERALLY EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO REACH THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE PASSES DOWNSTREAM...BUT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PIEDMONT AREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY AIDS THE SYSTEM FROM THE OH VALLEY
BY TUE MORNING. OVER RUNNING LIGHT RAINFALL OR SHOWERS SPREADS
N/NE INTO SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING RAINFALL ALL THE WAY NORTH TO ALMOST THE
CAPITAL REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN GUIDANCE AND THE GEFS. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE TUE. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO L40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP DEMARCATION BETWEEN THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH THE SFC WAVE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION...AND WHERE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. WE HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHC AND CHC POPS IN FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY.
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER OVER THE NRN ZONES
WHERE SOME SUNSHINE MAY OCCUR WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION...UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND PARTS OF
SRN VT. EXPECT MID AND U50S FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE LIGHT
RAIN OR SCT SHOWERS.

TUE NIGHT...A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR EARLY ON...BUT ANOTHER
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SW FLOW MAY SPAWN SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE ECMWF/GFS. THE BIGGER
ISSUE IS THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOVER OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DIGGING EQUATORWARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE A MAJOR
PLAYER IN TERMS OF MORE UNSETTLED WX TO CLOSE THE WEEK. LOWS
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS
AND SRN DACKS.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN EVOLVING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS. INITIALLY EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES WILL BRING SCT
SHOWERS TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT. BY THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SCT SHOWERS MAY DIMINISH A
BIT WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. OUR
HIGHEST POPS WED PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS LOOK MORE SEASONABLE
IN THE U50S TO M60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA TO BE DOMINATED BY CUTOFF
LOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES 2-3 SD
BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE 1-2 SD ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECTED WEATHER COOL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE DANK...DREARY WEATHER ON
SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR SATURDAY...LOCAL WEATHER WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE CUTOFF LOW AND PROXIMITY TO EAST
COAST. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS
WITH WINDS TURNING FROM NORTHERLY EARLY SATURDAY...TO WESTERLY BY
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL AT LEAST BRING DRIER CONDITIONS. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS A SPLIT BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND
GEFS ENSEMBLES. BOTH 00Z OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS BRING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GEFS GUIDANCE INDICATES FRONT
WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. BIG
DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST AS OPERATIONAL MODELS WOULD
HAVE A CLOUDY...SHOWERY MOTHERS DAY WHILES GEFS WOULD INDICATE A
BREEZY...FAIR SUMMER LIKE DAY. FOR NOW...CHANCE POPS WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN AFFECTING KGFL...AND MORE RAIN UPSTREAM OF KGFL...SO PERIODS OF
RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF RAIN IS
RESULTING IN SOME PERIODS OF SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE AT KALB.
HOWEVER...RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE KPSF AND KPOU AREAS. MOST
CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION ARE IFR...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND
EVEN JUST INTO THE VFR RANGE HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALSO.

SURROUNDING AREAS ARE IFR...SO PREDOMINANT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN
IFR AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT INDICATING TEMPO MVFR TO VFR FOR BRIEF
PERIODS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE VFR...EXCEPT
FOR SOME POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SOME AREAS...LIKE WHAT IS
OCCURRING AROUND KPOU DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND SATURATED GROUND.  BY
THIS EVENING...MANY AREAS COULD SEE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT SO
LIGHT...IT SHOULD NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES MUCH IF AT ALL...BUT IFR
CEILINGS COULD TREND TOWARD LIFR HEIGHTS.

CEILINGS COULD LIFT THROUGH THE EVENING IN SOME AREAS AS ANOTHER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES KPOU AND KPSF MAINLY.
SO...INDICATING SOME PERIODS OF CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR AND JUST INTO
THE VFR RANGE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT...UNTIL THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES AND BRINGS SOME MORE PERIODS OF RAIN TO KPSF
AND KPOU.

AFTER 12Z-15Z...ALL AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS...EXCEPT
KPOU WHERE SOME RAIN WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL LOCALIZED
FOG...BUT WITH PREDOMINANT CLOUD COVER...NOT INDICATING PREDOMINANT
FOG TOMORROW MORNING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING...SHIFTING TO MAINLY WEST TO NORTH WINDS AT LESS THAN 10
KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP.

TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER RAIN TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER
SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND
SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF LOW. THERE IS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.
WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT FOR THE STRETCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING FRIDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY TODAY...TAPERING OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE
TO RECENT DRYNESS...AND THE VEGETATION IS GREENING UP. THE
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW
FOR THE ALBANY HSA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
134 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DRIER
WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 118 PM EDT MONDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND TEMPERATURES TRENDS.
RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ARRIVES LATE MORNING ASSOCIATED
TROF MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL REDEVELOP RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR REGION BY NOON TODAY AND WILL TAPER OFF BETWEEN
5 AND 8 PM. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
REGIONS WHERE UP TO ANOTHER HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL WHILE ONLY
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED IN THE FAR NW/ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

HIGHEST POPS 80-100 %/CATEGORICAL WILL BE DURING MIDDAY THEN
TAPERING OFF TOWARDS BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE A
5-10 DEGREES TODAY WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED. COOL HIGHS AGAIN
TODAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH LIGHT WINDS IN MOST PLACES.

TONIGHT THINGS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT FOR THE MOST PART AS SHORT
WAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. BUT EXPECTING CLOUDS TO PERSIST
ALONG WITH SOME BLOCKED LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW. COULD ALSO
BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR DRIZZLE ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT QPF. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING WILL BE
IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DRY...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S. UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA AND BEGIN TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL BE THE UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE AROUND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OUR AREA WILL STILL BE
INFLUENCED BY THIS SYSTEM AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUS HAVE KEPT THAT IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST.
THE LOW MAY FINALLY GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO HAVE LITTLE
INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
TIME PERIOD. THIS COULD VERY WELL BE OUR ONLY STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN FROM
CANADA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR A BETTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST AN
OVERALL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH EVEN
SOME LOCATIONS HAVING A SHOT AT 70 IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR INTERVALS
FROM LIGHT RAIN AND MIST. LOW CEILINGS WILL OBSCURE MTNS. SOME
DROPS TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL VERY SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER THE
RAIN MOVES OUT. THERE IS AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT
HAVE LEFT THIS OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
CURRENTLY NORTHEASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE - WED: BECOMING VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON.
THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.
FRI - SAT: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NEILES/SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBGM 021707
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
107 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF WEAK SYSTEMS ROTATING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES SHOWERY
THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...HEAVY RAIN NOW LFTG THRU THE XTRM NRN FCST AREA
WITH ALL LTNG STRIKES NOW EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS
TO REFLECT THE CRNT SPEED OF THE PCPN AND REMOVE THE THREAT OF
TRW. ALSO HAVE LWRD THE POPS OVER THE WEST AND ESP THE SOUTH AS
THE MESO MODELS HAVE LTL IN THE WAY OF OFTN PCPN...ESP IN THE
SOUTH. PRVS DISC BLO.


625 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS OF IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING...I WENT AHEAD AND
EXPANDED COVERAGE OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...TO ACCOMPANY THE MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS.
ALSO...INCREASED AMOUNT OF HIGHER ELEVATION FOG. OTHERWISE
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 AM...SOLID LOW OVERCAST...AND PATCHY DRIZZLE...HAVE BEEN THE
THEMES OVERNIGHT. MOIST SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ALSO
YIELDED AREAS OF FOG IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
CATSKILLS. QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY CAN BE FOUND IN HAZLETON AS
WELL AS MOUNT POCONO. ACTUAL RAIN HAS BEEN HARD TO FIND...BUT THAT
WILL SOON CHANGE.

SURFACE TROUGH...STRONG SHORTWAVE...AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF
JET ALOFT ARE ALL COMBINING THIS MORNING TO BRING A QUICK BATCH
OF MODERATE RAINFALL FOR THE WHOLE REGION...THOUGH LINGERING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. MODELS INDICATE THAT
SHOWALTER INDICES ALSO GO SLIGHTLY SUBZERO THIS MORNING...MAINLY
CENTRAL TWIN TIERS TO FINGER LAKES AREAS. AS THIS SYSTEM UPSTREAM
HAS INDEED YIELDED OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDER...I HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN CENTRAL TWIN TIERS-FINGER LAKES. A
FEW TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED...HEAVIEST IN CENTRAL NEW YORK WHERE SOME SPOTS COULD
APPROACH A HALF INCH. THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY
BACK SOME SHOWERS INTO THE POCONOS TO CATSKILLS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SMALLER CHANCES FURTHER NORTHWEST IN PLACES SUCH AS
TOWANDA-BINGHAMTON-ONEONTA...AND PROBABLY NONE AS FAR NORTH AS
THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY LOWER TO MID
40S...THOUGH SOME UPPER 40S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WYOMING AND
DELAWARE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
MULTIPLE WEAK RIPPLES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL POSE
AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST ZONES CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONT. WHILE THERE WILL BE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY...PARTICULARLY
FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY WHICH WILL PROBABLY GET NOTHING AT
ALL. HIGHS WILL BE UPPER 50S-NEAR 60 TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWS OF
MAINLY MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE AREAWIDE AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
PRODUCES A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH THEN
APPROACHES OUR REGION. THOUGH NOT MUCH OVERALL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...IT WILL BE DAMP CLOUDY COOL AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
105 PM UPDATE...

MODELS AGREE THAT A MEAN TROF / BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEK. EVEN AS THE CYCLONE FINALLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY, ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL ROTATE TOWARD
WESTERN NY.

THE RESULT WILL BE A COOL AND SHOWERY FORECAST, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROMISING DAY FOR NICE, MAY-
LIKE WEATHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AS FORECAST, WITH SPOTTY
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS HANGING BACK OVER NY AND PA. AS OFTEN
OCCURS, CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LOWERING BEHIND THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DUE TO THE LOSS OF ATMOSPHERIC MIXING.

AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS IS FORECAST AT ITH AND BGM,
WITH BOTH SITES EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT TO VFR BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z
ON TUESDAY.

TEMPO IFR IS FORECAST FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AT SYR AND
RME.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...IMPROVING TO VFR.

WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP




000
FXUS61 KOKX 021659
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1259 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COMPLEX...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS HAVE EXITED TO THE NE WITH THE PASSING OF A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT STILL WELL TO
THE SW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ACROSS NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT LATE THIS AFT/EARLY
THIS EVE WITH AN APPROACHING SFC TROF.

IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE COULD OCCUR WITH FORECASTED MID LEVEL DRYING ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY
ABOUT 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STALLED
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE.
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AS A RESULT...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING AND
FOCUSED PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...BETTER LIFT WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. RAIN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...TAPERING TO A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN SLOWLY MOVE THE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE AFTER THAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A SPREAD IN DIRECTION
AND SPEED...WITH THE GFS/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE IT
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MOVES IT TOWARDS THE NE.
ALL BRING THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO AN END BY
SATURDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE N IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE
THE REGION GETS INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. SO HAVE
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...WHERE
THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DUE TO DIFFICULTIES ALL MODELS HAVE WITH TIMING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LULL OF MULTIPLE HOURS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO
SPECIFY WHEN THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...IF IT
INDEED HAPPENS.

FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED.
HIGHS SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
PASSES TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR
BOTH PERIODS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE ALSO BASED
ON THE SUPER BLEND...AND SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY IFR CIGS...GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

CONFIDENCE LOW ON WIND FORECAST. GRADIENT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH
FOR VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS...BCMG SE 5-10 KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY
RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO
IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS COULD COME CLOSE TO 5
FT DURING TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP SEAS AT 4 FT.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND.
HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT SE SWELL COULD BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES
INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO INCH EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...THE CITY...AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. NO
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. IN
GENERAL...AMOUNTS EACH DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY
1/4 INCH OR LESS. AS A RESULT...LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT/DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 021659
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1259 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COMPLEX...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS HAVE EXITED TO THE NE WITH THE PASSING OF A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT STILL WELL TO
THE SW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ACROSS NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT LATE THIS AFT/EARLY
THIS EVE WITH AN APPROACHING SFC TROF.

IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE COULD OCCUR WITH FORECASTED MID LEVEL DRYING ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY
ABOUT 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STALLED
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE.
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AS A RESULT...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING AND
FOCUSED PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...BETTER LIFT WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. RAIN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...TAPERING TO A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN SLOWLY MOVE THE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE AFTER THAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A SPREAD IN DIRECTION
AND SPEED...WITH THE GFS/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE IT
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MOVES IT TOWARDS THE NE.
ALL BRING THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO AN END BY
SATURDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE N IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE
THE REGION GETS INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. SO HAVE
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...WHERE
THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DUE TO DIFFICULTIES ALL MODELS HAVE WITH TIMING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LULL OF MULTIPLE HOURS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO
SPECIFY WHEN THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...IF IT
INDEED HAPPENS.

FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED.
HIGHS SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
PASSES TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR
BOTH PERIODS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE ALSO BASED
ON THE SUPER BLEND...AND SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY IFR CIGS...GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

CONFIDENCE LOW ON WIND FORECAST. GRADIENT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH
FOR VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS...BCMG SE 5-10 KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY
RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO
IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS COULD COME CLOSE TO 5
FT DURING TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP SEAS AT 4 FT.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND.
HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT SE SWELL COULD BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES
INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO INCH EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...THE CITY...AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. NO
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. IN
GENERAL...AMOUNTS EACH DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY
1/4 INCH OR LESS. AS A RESULT...LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT/DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 021603
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1203 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COMPLEX...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS BEING PRECEDED BY AN
AREA OF CONVECTION...IMPACTING MAINLY NORTHERN POTIONS OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTERIOR SW CT. HRRR SHOWS SOME SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING A N-S LINE...MAINLY EAST OF NYC THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR. FOR
THE AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGING ALOFT AND THE NEXT SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT STILL WELL TO
THE SW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECASTED
MID LEVEL DRYING ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY ALMOST 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STALLED
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE.
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AS A RESULT...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING AND
FOCUSED PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...BETTER LIFT WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. RAIN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...TAPERING TO A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN SLOWLY MOVE THE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE AFTER THAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A SPREAD IN DIRECTION
AND SPEED...WITH THE GFS/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE IT
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MOVES IT TOWARDS THE NE.
ALL BRING THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO AN END BY
SATURDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE N IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE
THE REGION GETS INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. SO HAVE
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...WHERE
THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DUE TO DIFFICULTIES ALL MODELS HAVE WITH TIMING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LULL OF MULTIPLE HOURS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO
SPECIFY WHEN THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...IF IT
INDEED HAPPENS.

FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED.
HIGHS SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
PASSES TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR
BOTH PERIODS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE ALSO BASED
ON THE SUPER BLEND...AND SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY IFR CIGS...GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

CONFIDENCE LOW ON WIND FORECAST. GRADIENT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH
FOR VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS...BCMG SE 5-10 KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CONDS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY
RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO
IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SEAS ARE NOW
BELOW 5 FT AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS WITH A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND
FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

SUB-SCA CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS COULD COME CLOSE TO 5
FT DURING TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP SEAS AT 4 FT.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND.
HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT SE SWELL COULD BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES
INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO INCH EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...THE CITY...AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. NO
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. IN
GENERAL...AMOUNTS EACH DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY
1/4 INCH OR LESS. AS A RESULT...LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT/DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KBUF 021531
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1131 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REGION. AFTER A DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHICH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS OHIO WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER LAKE ONTARIO. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM
THIS SYSTEM HAVE RANGED BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH ACROSS
THE REGION. OTHERWISE...AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY DEPARTS THE RAIN
SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WNY NEAR LUNCHTIME THEN
CLEARING EAST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK BETWEEN 2PM AND 3PM. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD HANG AROUND THROUGH A MAJORITY
TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OFF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS COOL FLOW WILL
ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO THE U40S/L50S FOR MOST
TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN RIDGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH MAINLY DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS A DRIER AIRMASS SPREADS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES. HAVE INCLUDED A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
SLIP BACK INTO THE U30S/L40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK AS THE REGION WILL BE CAUGHT IN A RELATIVE LULL IN BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE RIDGING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY
WITH JUST PASSING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 60 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TUESDAY
NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT
ALONG AND WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM THE LAKES. WITH 850-700MB
LAPSE RATES FALLING TO -8C/KM AND MUCAPES POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 250-
500 J/KG...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S WITH 40S ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW IN THE
BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PLOWING IT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE PIEDMONT BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AS TO THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE ECMWF
HINTING AT MORE NORTHERLY 850MB FLOW VS THE EASTERLY FLOW OF THE
GFS...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. BEST SHOWER CHANCES ON THURSDAY WILL
BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NY CLOSEST TO THE CORE OF THE PASSING
UPPER LOW AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS HERE WITH A CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
SHALLOWER LAPSE RATES AND GREATER STABILITY SHOULD RULE OUT ANY
THUNDER. SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD AND
GENERALLY CLOUDY/SHOWERY CONDITIONS...LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S...THOUGH A FEW AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE 40S...RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY EDGE UP THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY
AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE A PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
PROGGED TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST ACROSS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...THIS IS MOSTLY A REFLECTION
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. IN
REALITY...AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW STAYS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AS
CURRENTLY PROGGED...IT SHOULD BE A DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE AS AN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FLIRT WITH THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
MANY AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK
TO CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS A SOLID AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SLOWLY
MOVING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY(KART)LATE
THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE OVER TORONTO CANADA WHICH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
IFR CIGS AND ALSO LOWER VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. AS THIS
SHORTWAVE SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST EXPECT GRADUAL BUT
IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBYS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AT KBUF/KIAG/KROC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LATER TODAY....SOME DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE DRIER AIR THERE STILL REMAINS A POTENTIAL
FOR REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW.

OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE LOWER LAKES EXPECT
SLOW BUT IMPROVING CIGS AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST. BEHIND THIS
RAIN...A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...AR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...AR/SMITH
MARINE...AR/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 021531
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1131 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REGION. AFTER A DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHICH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS OHIO WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER LAKE ONTARIO. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM
THIS SYSTEM HAVE RANGED BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH ACROSS
THE REGION. OTHERWISE...AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY DEPARTS THE RAIN
SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WNY NEAR LUNCHTIME THEN
CLEARING EAST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK BETWEEN 2PM AND 3PM. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD HANG AROUND THROUGH A MAJORITY
TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OFF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS COOL FLOW WILL
ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO THE U40S/L50S FOR MOST
TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN RIDGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH MAINLY DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS A DRIER AIRMASS SPREADS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES. HAVE INCLUDED A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
SLIP BACK INTO THE U30S/L40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK AS THE REGION WILL BE CAUGHT IN A RELATIVE LULL IN BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE RIDGING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY
WITH JUST PASSING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 60 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TUESDAY
NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT
ALONG AND WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM THE LAKES. WITH 850-700MB
LAPSE RATES FALLING TO -8C/KM AND MUCAPES POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 250-
500 J/KG...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S WITH 40S ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW IN THE
BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PLOWING IT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE PIEDMONT BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AS TO THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE ECMWF
HINTING AT MORE NORTHERLY 850MB FLOW VS THE EASTERLY FLOW OF THE
GFS...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. BEST SHOWER CHANCES ON THURSDAY WILL
BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NY CLOSEST TO THE CORE OF THE PASSING
UPPER LOW AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS HERE WITH A CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
SHALLOWER LAPSE RATES AND GREATER STABILITY SHOULD RULE OUT ANY
THUNDER. SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD AND
GENERALLY CLOUDY/SHOWERY CONDITIONS...LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S...THOUGH A FEW AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE 40S...RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY EDGE UP THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY
AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE A PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
PROGGED TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST ACROSS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...THIS IS MOSTLY A REFLECTION
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. IN
REALITY...AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW STAYS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AS
CURRENTLY PROGGED...IT SHOULD BE A DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE AS AN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FLIRT WITH THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
MANY AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK
TO CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS A SOLID AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SLOWLY
MOVING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY(KART)LATE
THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE OVER TORONTO CANADA WHICH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
IFR CIGS AND ALSO LOWER VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. AS THIS
SHORTWAVE SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST EXPECT GRADUAL BUT
IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBYS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AT KBUF/KIAG/KROC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LATER TODAY....SOME DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE DRIER AIR THERE STILL REMAINS A POTENTIAL
FOR REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW.

OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE LOWER LAKES EXPECT
SLOW BUT IMPROVING CIGS AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST. BEHIND THIS
RAIN...A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...AR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...AR/SMITH
MARINE...AR/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 021440
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1040 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF WEAK SYSTEMS ROTATING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES SHOWERY
THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

1030 AM UPDATE...HEAVY RAIN NOW LFTG THRU THE XTRM NRN FCST AREA
WITH ALL LTNG STRIKES NOW EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS
TO REFLECT THE CRNT SPEED OF THE PCPN AND REMOVE THE THREAT OF
TRW. ALSO HAVE LWRD THE POPS OVER THE WEST AND ESP THE SOUTH AS
THE MESO MODELS HAVE LTL IN THE WAY OF OFTN PCPN...ESP IN THE
SOUTH. PRVS DISC BLO.


625 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS OF IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING...I WENT AHEAD AND
EXPANDED COVERAGE OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...TO ACCOMPANY THE MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS.
ALSO...INCREASED AMOUNT OF HIGHER ELEVATION FOG. OTHERWISE
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 AM...SOLID LOW OVERCAST...AND PATCHY DRIZZLE...HAVE BEEN THE
THEMES OVERNIGHT. MOIST SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ALSO
YIELDED AREAS OF FOG IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
CATSKILLS. QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY CAN BE FOUND IN HAZLETON AS
WELL AS MOUNT POCONO. ACTUAL RAIN HAS BEEN HARD TO FIND...BUT THAT
WILL SOON CHANGE.

SURFACE TROUGH...STRONG SHORTWAVE...AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF
JET ALOFT ARE ALL COMBINING THIS MORNING TO BRING A QUICK BATCH
OF MODERATE RAINFALL FOR THE WHOLE REGION...THOUGH LINGERING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. MODELS INDICATE THAT
SHOWALTER INDICES ALSO GO SLIGHTLY SUBZERO THIS MORNING...MAINLY
CENTRAL TWIN TIERS TO FINGER LAKES AREAS. AS THIS SYSTEM UPSTREAM
HAS INDEED YIELDED OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDER...I HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN CENTRAL TWIN TIERS-FINGER LAKES. A
FEW TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED...HEAVIEST IN CENTRAL NEW YORK WHERE SOME SPOTS COULD
APPROACH A HALF INCH. THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY
BACK SOME SHOWERS INTO THE POCONOS TO CATSKILLS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SMALLER CHANCES FURTHER NORTHWEST IN PLACES SUCH AS
TOWANDA-BINGHAMTON-ONEONTA...AND PROBABLY NONE AS FAR NORTH AS
THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY LOWER TO MID
40S...THOUGH SOME UPPER 40S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WYOMING AND
DELAWARE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
MULTIPLE WEAK RIPPLES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL POSE
AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST ZONES CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONT. WHILE THERE WILL BE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY...PARTICULARLY
FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY WHICH WILL PROBABLY GET NOTHING AT
ALL. HIGHS WILL BE UPPER 50S-NEAR 60 TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWS OF
MAINLY MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE AREAWIDE AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
PRODUCES A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH THEN
APPROACHES OUR REGION. THOUGH NOT MUCH OVERALL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...IT WILL BE DAMP CLOUDY COOL AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
4 AM MONDAY UPDATE...
THE LATEST MODEL CYCLE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD SYNC WITH RECENT RUNS.
BIG PICTURE IDEAS REMAIN THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK, AS AN OMEGA BLOCK BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THINGS CONTINUE
TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN WE WERE SEEING 24-48 HOURS
AGO, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

AS A RESULT OF THE ABOVE REASONING, CLOUDY, COOL, AND SHOWERY
WEATHER MAY ONLY REALLY AFFECT NY AND PA THU.-FRI., WITH FRI.
PERHAPS EVEN SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATER IN THE DAY. SAT.
NOW LOOKS MOSTLY RAIN-FREE, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY MAY (HIGHS IN THE 60S-LOWER 70S). A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS ON SUN., WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
RETURNING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK (DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S).

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN RESPECT TO THE
XPCTD CLSD LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE
OH VLY THU DVLPS INTO A CLSD LOW WHICH DRFTS TO THE NC CST BY FRI
MRNG. THIS WILL KEEP SHWRS AND COOL AIR OVER THE AREA THRU THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY SAT MRNG...UPR LOW AS DRFTD INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC...PERHAPS AS A RESPONSE TO THE WV PUSHING INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BIT OF WEAK RDGG OVER THE FCST AREA AND
IMPROVING WX. WITH THE CORE OF THE UPR LOW MVG SOUTH OF THE
AREA...HAVE LWRD POPS A BIT AND INCRSD TEMPS AS THE COOLER AIR SHD
NOT BE OVHD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH US THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF
PERIOD, OWING TO LOWER CEILINGS, AND A PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

FOR KRME, KITH, AND KBGM, EITHER IFR OR BELOW ALTERNATE MIN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME THROUGH MID-LATE
AFTERNOON (20-22Z). FOR KELM AND KSYR, IFR OR BELOW ALTERNATE MIN
CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE CENTERED AROUND THE PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
(ROUGHLY THROUGH 16-18Z), WITH GENERALLY MVFR OTHERWISE. AT KAVP,
PRIMARILY MVFR IS ANTICIPATED, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR BELOW
ALTERNATE MIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. QUITE A BIT OF IN-CLOUD
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PA/SOUTHERN
NY, SO WE`VE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KELM, KBGM,
AND KAVP THROUGH 13-14Z.

FROM LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED. IFR OR BELOW ALTERNATE MIN RESTRICTIONS MAY HANG ON
THE LONGEST AT KITH (PERHAPS TIL TOWARDS 00Z TUE), WHERE NW FLOW
IN A MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT TENDS TO PRODUCE LOWER
CONDITIONS.

AS FOR THE WINDS, THEY WILL BE E 5-8 KT AT KRME EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS (GENERALLY 5
KT OR LESS) THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (ABOUT 20-21Z ONWARD), WINDS WILL
BECOME N-NW AT 5-8 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...IMPROVING TO VFR.

WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021422
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1022 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGING
RAIN BY NOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND AWAY FROM NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1008 AM EDT MONDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND TEMPERATURES TRENDS.
STILL THINK RAIN WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA BY ABOUT
NOON TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGIONS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ARRIVES LATE MORNING ASSOCIATED
TROF MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL REDEVELOP RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR REGION BY NOON TODAY AND WILL TAPER OFF BETWEEN
5 AND 8 PM. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
REGIONS WHERE UP TO ANOTHER HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL WHILE ONLY
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED IN THE FAR NW/ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

HIGHEST POPS 80-100 %/CATEGORICAL WILL BE DURING MIDDAY THEN
TAPERING OFF TOWARDS BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE A
5-10 DEGREES TODAY WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED. COOL HIGHS AGAIN
TODAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH LIGHT WINDS IN MOST PLACES.

TONIGHT THINGS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT FOR THE MOST PART AS SHORT
WAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. BUT EXPECTING CLOUDS TO PERSIST
ALONG WITH SOME BLOCKED LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW. COULD ALSO
BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR DRIZZLE ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT QPF. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING WILL BE
IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DRY...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S. UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA AND BEGIN TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL BE THE UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE AROUND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OUR AREA WILL STILL BE
INFLUENCED BY THIS SYSTEM AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUS HAVE KEPT THAT IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST.
THE LOW MAY FINALLY GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO HAVE LITTLE
INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
TIME PERIOD. THIS COULD VERY WELL BE OUR ONLY STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN FROM
CANADA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR A BETTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST AN
OVERALL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH EVEN
SOME LOCATIONS HAVING A SHOT AT 70 IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR INTERVALS
FROM VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE, MIST AND STRATUS. LOW CEILINGS WILL
OBSCURE MTNS.

CEILINGS/VIS INTO THE IFR RANGE AT KMSS/KSLK AND COULD HAPPEN
JUST ABOUT AT ANY TERMINAL TODAY ESPECIALLY 17-21Z WITH RAIN
EXPECTED. NOTED SOME THUNDER IN THE RAIN OVER WESTERN NY BUT NOT
EXPECTING IT TO GET UP HERE. RAIN INTENSITY MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE IN NY AND IF IT GOES MODERATE VIS MAY DROP TO NEAR IFR.

FLOW TURNS FROM LIGHT NE/SE TO LIGHT NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING AFT 00Z WITH TREND TOWARD VFR AT KMSS/KPBG
BY 03-06Z BUT PERSISTENT MVFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUE - 12Z TUE: MVFR LCL IFR CIGS. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW
CEILINGS.
TUE - WED: BECOMING VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON.
THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.
FRI: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KOKX 021420
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1020 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COMPLEX...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS BEING PRECEDED BY AN
AREA OF CONVECTION...IMPACTING MAINLY NORTHERN POTIONS OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTERIOR SW CT. HRRR SHOWS SOME SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING A N-S LINE...MAINLY EAST OF NYC THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR. FOR
THE AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGING ALOFT AND THE NEXT SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT STILL WELL TO
THE SW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECASTED
MID LEVEL DRYING ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY ALMOST 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STALLED
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE.
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AS A RESULT...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING AND
FOCUSED PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...BETTER LIFT WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. RAIN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...TAPERING TO A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN SLOWLY MOVE THE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE AFTER THAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A SPREAD IN DIRECTION
AND SPEED...WITH THE GFS/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE IT
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MOVES IT TOWARDS THE NE.
ALL BRING THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO AN END BY
SATURDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE N IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE
THE REGION GETS INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. SO HAVE
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...WHERE
THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DUE TO DIFFICULTIES ALL MODELS HAVE WITH TIMING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LULL OF MULTIPLE HOURS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO
SPECIFY WHEN THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...IF IT
INDEED HAPPENS.

FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED.
HIGHS SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
PASSES TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR
BOTH PERIODS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE ALSO BASED
ON THE SUPER BLEND...AND SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT DEPARTS TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...THEN ANOTHER
LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY E/NE AOB 10 KT THIS
MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR CONDS DURING THE AFTN. SEVERAL
PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR...ALTHOUGH
TIMING REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AND COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF IN THE
TAFS. BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH 14Z TO 16Z W TERMINALS
AND 15Z TO 18Z E TERMINALS.

WIND FORECAST THIS AFTN AND EVE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE. IFR OR
LOWER CONDS SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING COULD BE
SEVERAL HOURS OFF DEPENDING ON WHAT OCCURS THIS AFTN.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDS MAY IMPROVE TO IFR EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. LOW CHC OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY
RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO
IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SEAS ARE NOW
BELOW 5 FT AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS WITH A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND
FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

SUB-SCA CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS COULD COME CLOSE TO 5
FT DURING TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP SEAS AT 4 FT.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND.
HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT SE SWELL COULD BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES
INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO INCH EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...THE CITY...AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. NO
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. IN
GENERAL...AMOUNTS EACH DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY
1/4 INCH OR LESS. AS A RESULT...LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT/DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 021340
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
940 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COMPLEX...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOKING AT ONGOING ISOLATED THUNDER OVER N CENTRAL PA...AND WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES FORECAST TO FALL TO -2 TO 2 BY 15Z AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE DAY...HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

BEFORE THEN...HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE TO DEAL WITH
THROUGH AROUND 14Z.

APPEARS BULK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS OVER NC/NE PA MISSES US TO THE
N...SO WATCHING AREA ALONG PA/MD BORDER WHICH RADAR AND HRRR/RAP
TIME INTO FAR W ZONES 14-15Z. UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR/RAP HOURLY
POPS AND SWITCHED OVER TO AREAL COVERAGE WORDING WITH SHOWERS FOR
PREDOMINATE P-TYPE. GIVEN FORECAST LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY BY
AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED CAPES OF 300-750 J/KG ON MOST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHOWALTER INDICES...FEEL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...EVEN WITHOUT ANY
THUNDER.

IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECASTED MID LEVEL
DRYING ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STALLED
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE.
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AS A RESULT...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING AND
FOCUSED PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...BETTER LIFT WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. RAIN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...TAPERING TO A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN SLOWLY MOVE THE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE AFTER THAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A SPREAD IN DIRECTION
AND SPEED...WITH THE GFS/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE IT
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MOVES IT TOWARDS THE NE.
ALL BRING THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO AN END BY
SATURDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE N IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE
THE REGION GETS INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. SO HAVE
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...WHERE
THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DUE TO DIFFICULTIES ALL MODELS HAVE WITH TIMING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LULL OF MULTIPLE HOURS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO
SPECIFY WHEN THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...IF IT
INDEED HAPPENS.

FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED.
HIGHS SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
PASSES TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR
BOTH PERIODS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE ALSO BASED
ON THE SUPER BLEND...AND SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT DEPARTS TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...THEN ANOTHER
LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY E/NE AOB 10 KT THIS
MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR CONDS DURING THE AFTN. SEVERAL
PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR...ALTHOUGH
TIMING REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AND COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF IN THE
TAFS. BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH 14Z TO 16Z W TERMINALS
AND 15Z TO 18Z E TERMINALS.

WIND FORECAST THIS AFTN AND EVE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE. IFR OR
LOWER CONDS SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING COULD BE
SEVERAL HOURS OFF DEPENDING ON WHAT OCCURS THIS AFTN.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDS MAY IMPROVE TO IFR EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. LOW CHC OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY
RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO
IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

SEAS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 5 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. MIGHT BE ABLE TO
DROP SCA BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION AT NOON AS WINDS AND SEA SWELL
SUBSIDE. SUB-SCA CONDS OTHERWISE TODAY AND TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS COULD
COME CLOSE TO 5 FT DURING TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP SEAS AT 4
FT.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND.
HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT SE SWELL COULD BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES
INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO INCH EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...THE CITY...AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. NO
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. IN
GENERAL...AMOUNTS EACH DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY
1/4 INCH OR LESS. AS A RESULT...LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 021340
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
940 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COMPLEX...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOKING AT ONGOING ISOLATED THUNDER OVER N CENTRAL PA...AND WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES FORECAST TO FALL TO -2 TO 2 BY 15Z AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE DAY...HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

BEFORE THEN...HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE TO DEAL WITH
THROUGH AROUND 14Z.

APPEARS BULK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS OVER NC/NE PA MISSES US TO THE
N...SO WATCHING AREA ALONG PA/MD BORDER WHICH RADAR AND HRRR/RAP
TIME INTO FAR W ZONES 14-15Z. UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR/RAP HOURLY
POPS AND SWITCHED OVER TO AREAL COVERAGE WORDING WITH SHOWERS FOR
PREDOMINATE P-TYPE. GIVEN FORECAST LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY BY
AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED CAPES OF 300-750 J/KG ON MOST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHOWALTER INDICES...FEEL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...EVEN WITHOUT ANY
THUNDER.

IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECASTED MID LEVEL
DRYING ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STALLED
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE.
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AS A RESULT...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING AND
FOCUSED PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...BETTER LIFT WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. RAIN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...TAPERING TO A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN SLOWLY MOVE THE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE AFTER THAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A SPREAD IN DIRECTION
AND SPEED...WITH THE GFS/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE IT
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MOVES IT TOWARDS THE NE.
ALL BRING THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO AN END BY
SATURDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE N IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE
THE REGION GETS INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. SO HAVE
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...WHERE
THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DUE TO DIFFICULTIES ALL MODELS HAVE WITH TIMING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LULL OF MULTIPLE HOURS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO
SPECIFY WHEN THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...IF IT
INDEED HAPPENS.

FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED.
HIGHS SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
PASSES TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR
BOTH PERIODS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE ALSO BASED
ON THE SUPER BLEND...AND SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT DEPARTS TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...THEN ANOTHER
LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY E/NE AOB 10 KT THIS
MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR CONDS DURING THE AFTN. SEVERAL
PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR...ALTHOUGH
TIMING REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AND COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF IN THE
TAFS. BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH 14Z TO 16Z W TERMINALS
AND 15Z TO 18Z E TERMINALS.

WIND FORECAST THIS AFTN AND EVE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE. IFR OR
LOWER CONDS SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING COULD BE
SEVERAL HOURS OFF DEPENDING ON WHAT OCCURS THIS AFTN.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDS MAY IMPROVE TO IFR EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. LOW CHC OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY
RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO
IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

SEAS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 5 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. MIGHT BE ABLE TO
DROP SCA BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION AT NOON AS WINDS AND SEA SWELL
SUBSIDE. SUB-SCA CONDS OTHERWISE TODAY AND TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS COULD
COME CLOSE TO 5 FT DURING TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP SEAS AT 4
FT.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND.
HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT SE SWELL COULD BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES
INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO INCH EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...THE CITY...AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. NO
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. IN
GENERAL...AMOUNTS EACH DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY
1/4 INCH OR LESS. AS A RESULT...LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KALY 021321
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
921 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY.  ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST ON TUESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES FROM THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS AN UPPER LOW AND
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER TRACKING THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS
AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...HEADED FOR THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW
CT THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE RAIN AND THUNDER BASED
ON RADAR AND SATELLLITE TRENDS. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AQND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AS
WELL...DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

PREVIOUS AFD HAS A FEW MORE DETAILS AND IS BELOW...

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN TWO TENTHS AND A
HALF AN INCH FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS FROM THE
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY AND THERMAL ADVECTIONS.
CATEGORICAL POPS WERE USED NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR
WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH AND EAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WHERE SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE PASSES DOWNSTREAM...BUT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PIEDMONT AREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY AIDS THE SYSTEM FROM THE OH VALLEY
BY TUE MORNING. OVER RUNNING LIGHT RAINFALL OR SHOWERS SPREADS
N/NE INTO SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING RAINFALL ALL THE WAY NORTH TO ALMOST THE
CAPITAL REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN GUIDANCE AND THE GEFS. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE TUE. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO L40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP DEMARCATION BETWEEN THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH THE SFC WAVE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION...AND WHERE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. WE HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHC AND CHC POPS IN FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY.
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER OVER THE NRN ZONES
WHERE SOME SUNSHINE MAY OCCUR WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION...UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND PARTS OF
SRN VT. EXPECT MID AND U50S FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE LIGHT
RAIN OR SCT SHOWERS.

TUE NIGHT...A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR EARLY ON...BUT ANOTHER
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SW FLOW MAY SPAWN SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE ECMWF/GFS. THE BIGGER
ISSUE IS THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOVER OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DIGGING EQUATORWARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE A MAJOR
PLAYER IN TERMS OF MORE UNSETTLED WX TO CLOSE THE WEEK. LOWS
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS
AND SRN DACKS.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN EVOLVING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS. INITIALLY EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES WILL BRING SCT
SHOWERS TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT. BY THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SCT SHOWERS MAY DIMINISH A
BIT WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. OUR
HIGHEST POPS WED PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS LOOK MORE SEASONABLE
IN THE U50S TO M60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA TO BE DOMINATED BY CUTOFF
LOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES 2-3 SD
BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE 1-2 SD ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECTED WEATHER COOL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE DANK...DREARY WEATHER ON
SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR SATURDAY...LOCAL WEATHER WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE CUTOFF LOW AND PROXIMITY TO EAST
COAST. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS
WITH WINDS TURNING FROM NORTHERLY EARLY SATURDAY...TO WESTERLY BY
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL AT LEAST BRING DRIER CONDITIONS. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS A SPLIT BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND
GEFS ENSEMBLES. BOTH 00Z OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS BRING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GEFS GUIDANCE INDICATES FRONT
WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. BIG
DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST AS OPERATIONAL MODELS WOULD
HAVE A CLOUDY...SHOWERY MOTHERS DAY WHILES GEFS WOULD INDICATE A
BREEZY...FAIR SUMMER LIKE DAY. FOR NOW...CHANCE POPS WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 12Z TUESDAY.

A PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AT
ALL TAF SITES BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS...WITH RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY IN RAIN
AND FOG AND LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER AT KPOU TODAY. KPOU MAY
SEE ADDITIONAL RAIN AND FOG LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BECOMING
SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATER TODAY AND INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS. ON
MONDAY NIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND
DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP.

TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER RAIN TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER
SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND
SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF LOW. THERE IS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.
WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT FOR THE STRETCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING FRIDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY TODAY...TAPERING OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE
TO RECENT DRYNESS...AND THE VEGETATION IS GREENING UP. THE
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW
FOR THE ALBANY HSA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 021158
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
758 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COMPLEX...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOKING AT ONGOING ISOLATED THUNDER OVER N CENTRAL PA...AND WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES FORECAST TO FALL TO -2 TO 2 BY 15Z AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE DAY...HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

BEFORE THEN...HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE TO DEAL WITH
THROUGH AROUND 14Z.

APPEARS BULK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS OVER NC/NE PA MISSES US TO THE
N...SO WATCHING AREA ALONG PA/MD BORDER WHICH RADAR AND HRRR/RAP
TIME INTO FAR W ZONES 14-15Z. UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR/RAP HOURLY
POPS AND SWITCHED OVER TO AREAL COVERAGE WORDING WITH SHOWERS FOR
PREDOMINATE P-TYPE. GIVEN FORECAST LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY BY
AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED CAPES OF 300-750 J/KG ON MOST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHOWALTER INDICES...FEEL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...EVEN WITHOUT ANY
THUNDER.

IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECASTED MID LEVEL
DRYING ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STALLED
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE.
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AS A RESULT...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING AND
FOCUSED PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...BETTER LIFT WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. RAIN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...TAPERING TO A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN SLOWLY MOVE THE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE AFTER THAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A SPREAD IN DIRECTION
AND SPEED...WITH THE GFS/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE IT
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MOVES IT TOWARDS THE NE.
ALL BRING THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO AN END BY
SATURDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE N IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE
THE REGION GETS INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. SO HAVE
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...WHERE
THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DUE TO DIFFICULTIES ALL MODELS HAVE WITH TIMING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LULL OF MULTIPLE HOURS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO
SPECIFY WHEN THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...IF IT
INDEED HAPPENS.

FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED.
HIGHS SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
PASSES TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR
BOTH PERIODS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE ALSO BASED
ON THE SUPER BLEND...AND SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT DEPARTS TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...THEN ANOTHER
LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY E/NE AOB 10 KT THIS
MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR CONDS DURING THE AFTN. SEVERAL
PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR...ALTHOUGH
TIMING REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AND COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF IN THE
TAFS. BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH 14Z TO 16Z W TERMINALS
AND 15Z TO 18Z E TERMINALS.

WIND FORECAST THIS AFTN AND EVE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE. IFR OR
LOWER CONDS SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING COULD BE
SEVERAL HOURS OFF DEPENDING ON WHAT OCCURS THIS AFTN.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDS MAY IMPROVE TO IFR EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. LOW CHC OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY
RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO
IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

SEAS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 5 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. MIGHT BE ABLE TO
DROP SCA BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION AT NOON AS WINDS AND SEA SWELL
SUBSIDE. SUB-SCA CONDS OTHERWISE TODAY AND TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS COULD
COME CLOSE TO 5 FT DURING TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP SEAS AT 4
FT.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND.
HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT SE SWELL COULD BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES
INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO INCH EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...THE CITY...AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. NO
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. IN
GENERAL...AMOUNTS EACH DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY
1/4 INCH OR LESS. AS A RESULT...LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 021158
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
758 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COMPLEX...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOKING AT ONGOING ISOLATED THUNDER OVER N CENTRAL PA...AND WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES FORECAST TO FALL TO -2 TO 2 BY 15Z AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE DAY...HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

BEFORE THEN...HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE TO DEAL WITH
THROUGH AROUND 14Z.

APPEARS BULK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS OVER NC/NE PA MISSES US TO THE
N...SO WATCHING AREA ALONG PA/MD BORDER WHICH RADAR AND HRRR/RAP
TIME INTO FAR W ZONES 14-15Z. UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR/RAP HOURLY
POPS AND SWITCHED OVER TO AREAL COVERAGE WORDING WITH SHOWERS FOR
PREDOMINATE P-TYPE. GIVEN FORECAST LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY BY
AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED CAPES OF 300-750 J/KG ON MOST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHOWALTER INDICES...FEEL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...EVEN WITHOUT ANY
THUNDER.

IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECASTED MID LEVEL
DRYING ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STALLED
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE.
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AS A RESULT...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING AND
FOCUSED PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...BETTER LIFT WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. RAIN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...TAPERING TO A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN SLOWLY MOVE THE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE AFTER THAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A SPREAD IN DIRECTION
AND SPEED...WITH THE GFS/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE IT
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MOVES IT TOWARDS THE NE.
ALL BRING THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO AN END BY
SATURDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE N IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE
THE REGION GETS INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. SO HAVE
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...WHERE
THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DUE TO DIFFICULTIES ALL MODELS HAVE WITH TIMING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LULL OF MULTIPLE HOURS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO
SPECIFY WHEN THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...IF IT
INDEED HAPPENS.

FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED.
HIGHS SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
PASSES TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR
BOTH PERIODS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE ALSO BASED
ON THE SUPER BLEND...AND SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT DEPARTS TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...THEN ANOTHER
LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY E/NE AOB 10 KT THIS
MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR CONDS DURING THE AFTN. SEVERAL
PIECES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR...ALTHOUGH
TIMING REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AND COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF IN THE
TAFS. BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH 14Z TO 16Z W TERMINALS
AND 15Z TO 18Z E TERMINALS.

WIND FORECAST THIS AFTN AND EVE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE. IFR OR
LOWER CONDS SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING COULD BE
SEVERAL HOURS OFF DEPENDING ON WHAT OCCURS THIS AFTN.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDS MAY IMPROVE TO IFR EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. LOW CHC OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN COULD BE SEVERAL
HOURS OFF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY
RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO
IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

SEAS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 5 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. MIGHT BE ABLE TO
DROP SCA BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION AT NOON AS WINDS AND SEA SWELL
SUBSIDE. SUB-SCA CONDS OTHERWISE TODAY AND TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS COULD
COME CLOSE TO 5 FT DURING TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP SEAS AT 4
FT.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND.
HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT SE SWELL COULD BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES
INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO INCH EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...THE CITY...AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. NO
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. IN
GENERAL...AMOUNTS EACH DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY
1/4 INCH OR LESS. AS A RESULT...LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021151
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
751 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGING
RAIN BY NOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND AWAY FROM NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 750 AM EDT MONDAY...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS.

ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ARRIVES LATE MORNING ASSOCIATED
TROF MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL REDEVELOP RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR REGION BY NOON TODAY AND WILL TAPER OFF BETWEEN
5 AND 8 PM. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
REGIONS WHERE UP TO ANOTHER HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL WHILE ONLY
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED IN THE FAR NW/ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

HIGHEST POPS 80-100 %/CATEGORICAL WILL BE DURING MIDDAY THEN TAPERING
OFF TOWARDS BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE A 5-10 DEGREES
TODAY WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED. COOL HIGHS AGAIN TODAY IN
THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH LIGHT WINDS IN MOST PLACES.

TONIGHT THINGS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT FOR THE MOST PART AS SHORT
WAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. BUT EXPECTING CLOUDS TO PERSIST
ALONG WITH SOME BLOCKED LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW. COULD ALSO
BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR DRIZZLE ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT QPF. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING WILL BE
IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DRY...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S. UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA AND BEGIN TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL BE THE UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE AROUND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OUR AREA WILL STILL BE
INFLUENCED BY THIS SYSTEM AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUS HAVE KEPT THAT IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST.
THE LOW MAY FINALLY GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO HAVE LITTLE
INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
TIME PERIOD. THIS COULD VERY WELL BE OUR ONLY STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN FROM
CANADA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR A BETTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST AN
OVERALL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH EVEN
SOME LOCATIONS HAVING A SHOT AT 70 IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR INTERVALS
FROM VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE, MIST AND STRATUS. LOW CEILINGS WILL
OBSCURE MTNS.

CEILINGS/VIS INTO THE IFR RANGE AT KMSS/KSLK AND COULD HAPPEN
JUST ABOUT AT ANY TERMINAL TODAY ESPECIALLY 17-21Z WITH RAIN
EXPECTED. NOTED SOME THUNDER IN THE RAIN OVER WESTERN NY BUT NOT
EXPECTING IT TO GET UP HERE. RAIN INTENSITY MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE IN NY AND IF IT GOES MODERATE VIS MAY DROP TO NEAR IFR.

FLOW TURNS FROM LIGHT NE/SE TO LIGHT NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING AFT 00Z WITH TREND TOWARD VFR AT KMSS/KPBG
BY 03-06Z BUT PERSISTENT MVFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUE - 12Z TUE: MVFR LCL IFR CIGS. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW
CEILINGS.
TUE - WED: BECOMING VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON.
THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.
FRI: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBUF 021056
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
656 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REGION. AFTER A DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADARS THIS MORNING SHOWING LIGHT AND MODERATE RAIN SPREAD ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN NEW YORK MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL NEW YORK.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS OHIO
WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER LAKE
ERIE. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE THREAT IS
LIMITED TO SOUTH OF THE NY STATE LINE NEAR 11Z. MOST RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL RUN BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A THIRD OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE ACCOMPANYING THE FOG.

RAIN SHOULD BE CLEARING EAST OF WNY NEAR LUNCHTIME THEN CLEARING
EAST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK BY THE EVENING RUSH. OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD
HANG AROUND MOST OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OFF LAKE ONTARIO.
THIS COOL FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO THE
U40S/L50S FOR MOST TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN RIDGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH MAINLY DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS A DRIER AIRMASS SPREADS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES. HAVE INCLUDED A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL SLIP BACK INTO THE U30S/L40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK AS THE REGION WILL BE CAUGHT IN A RELATIVE LULL IN BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE RIDGING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY
WITH JUST PASSING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 60 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TUESDAY
NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT
ALONG AND WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM THE LAKES. WITH 850-700MB
LAPSE RATES FALLING TO -8C/KM AND MUCAPES POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 250-
500 J/KG...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S WITH 40S ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW IN THE
BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PLOWING IT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE PIEDMONT BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AS TO THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE ECMWF
HINTING AT MORE NORTHERLY 850MB FLOW VS THE EASTERLY FLOW OF THE
GFS...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. BEST SHOWER CHANCES ON THURSDAY WILL
BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NY CLOSEST TO THE CORE OF THE PASSING
UPPER LOW AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS HERE WITH A CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
SHALLOWER LAPSE RATES AND GREATER STABILITY SHOULD RULE OUT ANY
THUNDER. SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD AND
GENERALLY CLOUDY/SHOWERY CONDITIONS...LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S...THOUGH A FEW AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE 40S...RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY EDGE UP THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY
AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE A PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
PROGGED TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST ACROSS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...THIS IS MOSTLY A REFLECTION
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. IN
REALITY...AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW STAYS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AS
CURRENTLY PROGGED...IT SHOULD BE A DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE AS AN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FLIRT WITH THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
MANY AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK
TO CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY IFR/MVFR
VSBYS IN FOG AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A SHALLOW
INVERSION. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD
CENTRAL NEW YORK NEAR 11Z. HAVE REMOVED VCTS FROM ALL TAFS BASED ON
CONVECTION BEING LIMITED TO SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BORDER. VISIBILITIES
MAY TEMPO TO IFR WITHIN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AS THE RAIN SHIFTS EAST OF WNY AROUND LUNCH TIME...CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO THE LOW MVFR RANGE THEN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
ONLY IMPROVING BACK TO VFR LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IFR WILL HOLD LONGEST AT KJHW. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL
LIFT CIGS TO VFR AT ALL SITES. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY LATEST LAMP
RUN.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST. BEHIND THIS
RAIN...A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 021042
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
642 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF WEAK SYSTEMS ROTATING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES SHOWERY
THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
625 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS OF IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING...I WENT AHEAD AND
EXPANDED COVERAGE OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...TO ACCOMPANY THE MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS.
ALSO...INCREASED AMOUNT OF HIGHER ELEVATION FOG. OTHERWISE
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 AM...SOLID LOW OVERCAST...AND PATCHY DRIZZLE...HAVE BEEN THE
THEMES OVERNIGHT. MOIST SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ALSO
YIELDED AREAS OF FOG IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
CATSKILLS. QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY CAN BE FOUND IN HAZLETON AS
WELL AS MOUNT POCONO. ACTUAL RAIN HAS BEEN HARD TO FIND...BUT THAT
WILL SOON CHANGE.

SURFACE TROUGH...STRONG SHORTWAVE...AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF
JET ALOFT ARE ALL COMBINING THIS MORNING TO BRING A QUICK BATCH
OF MODERATE RAINFALL FOR THE WHOLE REGION...THOUGH LINGERING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. MODELS INDICATE THAT
SHOWALTER INDICES ALSO GO SLIGHTLY SUBZERO THIS MORNING...MAINLY
CENTRAL TWIN TIERS TO FINGER LAKES AREAS. AS THIS SYSTEM UPSTREAM
HAS INDEED YIELDED OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDER...I HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN CENTRAL TWIN TIERS-FINGER LAKES. A
FEW TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED...HEAVIEST IN CENTRAL NEW YORK WHERE SOME SPOTS COULD
APPROACH A HALF INCH. THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY
BACK SOME SHOWERS INTO THE POCONOS TO CATSKILLS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SMALLER CHANCES FURTHER NORTHWEST IN PLACES SUCH AS
TOWANDA-BINGHAMTON-ONEONTA...AND PROBABLY NONE AS FAR NORTH AS
THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY LOWER TO MID
40S...THOUGH SOME UPPER 40S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WYOMING AND
DELAWARE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
MULTIPLE WEAK RIPPLES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL POSE
AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST ZONES CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONT. WHILE THERE WILL BE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY...PARTICULARLY
FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY WHICH WILL PROBABLY GET NOTHING AT
ALL. HIGHS WILL BE UPPER 50S-NEAR 60 TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWS OF
MAINLY MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE AREAWIDE AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
PRODUCES A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH THEN
APPROACHES OUR REGION. THOUGH NOT MUCH OVERALL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...IT WILL BE DAMP CLOUDY COOL AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
4 AM MONDAY UPDATE...
THE LATEST MODEL CYCLE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD SYNC WITH RECENT RUNS.
BIG PICTURE IDEAS REMAIN THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK, AS AN OMEGA BLOCK BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THINGS CONTINUE
TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN WE WERE SEEING 24-48 HOURS
AGO, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

AS A RESULT OF THE ABOVE REASONING, CLOUDY, COOL, AND SHOWERY
WEATHER MAY ONLY REALLY AFFECT NY AND PA THU.-FRI., WITH FRI.
PERHAPS EVEN SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATER IN THE DAY. SAT.
NOW LOOKS MOSTLY RAIN-FREE, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY MAY (HIGHS IN THE 60S-LOWER 70S). A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS ON SUN., WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
RETURNING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK (DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S).

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN RESPECT TO THE
XPCTD CLSD LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE
OH VLY THU DVLPS INTO A CLSD LOW WHICH DRFTS TO THE NC CST BY FRI
MRNG. THIS WILL KEEP SHWRS AND COOL AIR OVER THE AREA THRU THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY SAT MRNG...UPR LOW AS DRFTD INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC...PERHAPS AS A RESPONSE TO THE WV PUSHING INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BIT OF WEAK RDGG OVER THE FCST AREA AND
IMPROVING WX. WITH THE CORE OF THE UPR LOW MVG SOUTH OF THE
AREA...HAVE LWRD POPS A BIT AND INCRSD TEMPS AS THE COOLER AIR SHD
NOT BE OVHD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH US THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF
PERIOD, OWING TO LOWER CEILINGS, AND A PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

FOR KRME, KITH, AND KBGM, EITHER IFR OR BELOW ALTERNATE MIN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME THROUGH MID-LATE
AFTERNOON (20-22Z). FOR KELM AND KSYR, IFR OR BELOW ALTERNATE MIN
CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE CENTERED AROUND THE PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
(ROUGHLY THROUGH 16-18Z), WITH GENERALLY MVFR OTHERWISE. AT KAVP,
PRIMARILY MVFR IS ANTICIPATED, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR BELOW
ALTERNATE MIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. QUITE A BIT OF IN-CLOUD
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PA/SOUTHERN
NY, SO WE`VE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KELM, KBGM,
AND KAVP THROUGH 13-14Z.

FROM LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED. IFR OR BELOW ALTERNATE MIN RESTRICTIONS MAY HANG ON
THE LONGEST AT KITH (PERHAPS TIL TOWARDS 00Z TUE), WHERE NW FLOW
IN A MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT TENDS TO PRODUCE LOWER
CONDITIONS.

AS FOR THE WINDS, THEY WILL BE E 5-8 KT AT KRME EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS (GENERALLY 5
KT OR LESS) THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (ABOUT 20-21Z ONWARD), WINDS WILL
BECOME N-NW AT 5-8 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...IMPROVING TO VFR.

WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KALY 021031
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY.  ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST ON TUESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES FROM THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS AN UPPER LOW AND
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 631 AM EDT...A COOL AND DAMP AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORT- WAVE COUPLED WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH N/NE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE PA/MD/WV BORDER
WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAINFALL INTO THE REGION IN THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.

UPSTREAM THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBS...RAP AND HRRR
OUTPUT...SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER ERN OH
MOVING INTO N-CNTRL PA. A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO
FORM ACROSS W-CNTRL NY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...AND THEN EXPAND
EASTWARD INTO ERN NY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE RAIN SHOULD
ENCOMPASS ALL OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 12Z-15Z...AND
THEN THE ACTIVITY COULD BE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY STABLE...THOUGH A POCKET OF STEEPER
MID LAPSE RATES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT-WAVE...AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER THE SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES OF 0 TO
-2C ON THE LATEST NAM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. A
SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PLACED IN THE GRIDS NOON TO THE MID
PM OVER THE WRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...ERN CATSKILLS...AND
NEAR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN TWO TENTHS AND A
HALF AN INCH FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS FROM THE
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY AND THERMAL ADVECTIONS.
CATEGORICAL POPS WERE USED NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR
WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH AND EAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WHERE SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE PASSES DOWNSTREAM...BUT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PIEDMONT AREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY AIDS THE SYSTEM FROM THE OH VALLEY
BY TUE MORNING. OVER RUNNING LIGHT RAINFALL OR SHOWERS SPREADS
N/NE INTO SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING RAINFALL ALL THE WAY NORTH TO ALMOST THE
CAPITAL REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN GUIDANCE AND THE GEFS. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE TUE. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO L40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP DEMARCATION BETWEEN THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH THE SFC WAVE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION...AND WHERE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. WE HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHC AND CHC POPS IN FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY.
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER OVER THE NRN ZONES
WHERE SOME SUNSHINE MAY OCCUR WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION...UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND PARTS OF
SRN VT. EXPECT MID AND U50S FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE LIGHT
RAIN OR SCT SHOWERS.

TUE NIGHT...A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR EARLY ON...BUT ANOTHER
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SW FLOW MAY SPAWN SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE ECMWF/GFS. THE BIGGER
ISSUE IS THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOVER OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DIGGING EQUATORWARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE A MAJOR
PLAYER IN TERMS OF MORE UNSETTLED WX TO CLOSE THE WEEK. LOWS
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS
AND SRN DACKS.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN EVOLVING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS. INITIALLY EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES WILL BRING SCT
SHOWERS TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT. BY THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SCT SHOWERS MAY DIMINISH A
BIT WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. OUR
HIGHEST POPS WED PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS LOOK MORE SEASONABLE
IN THE U50S TO M60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA TO BE DOMINATED BY CUTOFF
LOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES 2-3 SD
BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE 1-2 SD ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECTED WEATHER COOL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE DANK...DREARY WEATHER ON
SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR SATURDAY...LOCAL WEATHER WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE CUTOFF LOW AND PROXIMITY TO EAST
COAST. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS
WITH WINDS TURNING FROM NORTHERLY EARLY SATURDAY...TO WESTERLY BY
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL AT LEAST BRING DRIER CONDITIONS. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS A SPLIT BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND
GEFS ENSEMBLES. BOTH 00Z OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS BRING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GEFS GUIDANCE INDICATES FRONT
WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. BIG
DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST AS OPERATIONAL MODELS WOULD
HAVE A CLOUDY...SHOWERY MOTHERS DAY WHILES GEFS WOULD INDICATE A
BREEZY...FAIR SUMMER LIKE DAY. FOR NOW...CHANCE POPS WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 12Z TUESDAY.

A PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AT
ALL TAF SITES BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS...WITH RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY IN RAIN
AND FOG AND LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER AT KPOU TODAY. KPOU MAY
SEE ADDITIONAL RAIN AND FOG LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BECOMING
SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATER TODAY AND INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS. ON
MONDAY NIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND
DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP.

TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER RAIN TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER
SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND
SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF LOW. THERE IS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.
WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT FOR THE STRETCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING FRIDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY TODAY...TAPERING OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE
TO RECENT DRYNESS...AND THE VEGETATION IS GREENING UP. THE
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW
FOR THE ALBANY HSA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBGM 021026
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
626 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF WEAK SYSTEMS ROTATING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES SHOWERY
THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
625 AM UPDATE...
BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS OF IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING...I WENT AHEAD AND
EXPANDED COVERAGE OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...TO ACCOMPANY THE MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS.
ALSO...INCREASED AMOUNT OF HIGHER ELEVATION FOG. OTHERWISE
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 AM...SOLID LOW OVERCAST...AND PATCHY DRIZZLE...HAVE BEEN THE
THEMES OVERNIGHT. MOIST SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ALSO
YIELDED AREAS OF FOG IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
CATSKILLS. QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY CAN BE FOUND IN HAZLETON AS
WELL AS MOUNT POCONO. ACTUAL RAIN HAS BEEN HARD TO FIND...BUT THAT
WILL SOON CHANGE.

SURFACE TROUGH...STRONG SHORTWAVE...AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF
JET ALOFT ARE ALL COMBINING THIS MORNING TO BRING A QUICK BATCH
OF MODERATE RAINFALL FOR THE WHOLE REGION...THOUGH LINGERING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. MODELS INDICATE THAT
SHOWALTER INDICES ALSO GO SLIGHTLY SUBZERO THIS MORNING...MAINLY
CENTRAL TWIN TIERS TO FINGER LAKES AREAS. AS THIS SYSTEM UPSTREAM
HAS INDEED YIELDED OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDER...I HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN CENTRAL TWIN TIERS-FINGER LAKES. A
FEW TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED...HEAVIEST IN CENTRAL NEW YORK WHERE SOME SPOTS COULD
APPROACH A HALF INCH. THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY
BACK SOME SHOWERS INTO THE POCONOS TO CATSKILLS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SMALLER CHANCES FURTHER NORTHWEST IN PLACES SUCH AS
TOWANDA-BINGHAMTON-ONEONTA...AND PROBABLY NONE AS FAR NORTH AS
THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY LOWER TO MID
40S...THOUGH SOME UPPER 40S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WYOMING AND
DELAWARE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
MULTIPLE WEAK RIPPLES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL POSE
AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST ZONES CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONT. WHILE THERE WILL BE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY...PARTICULARLY
FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY WHICH WILL PROBABLY GET NOTHING AT
ALL. HIGHS WILL BE UPPER 50S-NEAR 60 TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWS OF
MAINLY MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE AREAWIDE AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
PRODUCES A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH THEN
APPROACHES OUR REGION. THOUGH NOT MUCH OVERALL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...IT WILL BE DAMP CLOUDY COOL AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
4 AM MONDAY UPDATE...
THE LATEST MODEL CYCLE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD SYNC WITH RECENT RUNS.
BIG PICTURE IDEAS REMAIN THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK, AS AN OMEGA BLOCK BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THINGS CONTINUE
TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN WE WERE SEEING 24-48 HOURS
AGO, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

AS A RESULT OF THE ABOVE REASONING, CLOUDY, COOL, AND SHOWERY
WEATHER MAY ONLY REALLY AFFECT NY AND PA THU.-FRI., WITH FRI.
PERHAPS EVEN SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATER IN THE DAY. SAT.
NOW LOOKS MOSTLY RAIN-FREE, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY MAY (HIGHS IN THE 60S-LOWER 70S). A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS ON SUN., WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
RETURNING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK (DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S).

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN RESPECT TO THE
XPCTD CLSD LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE
OH VLY THU DVLPS INTO A CLSD LOW WHICH DRFTS TO THE NC CST BY FRI
MRNG. THIS WILL KEEP SHWRS AND COOL AIR OVER THE AREA THRU THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY SAT MRNG...UPR LOW AS DRFTD INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC...PERHAPS AS A RESPONSE TO THE WV PUSHING INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BIT OF WEAK RDGG OVER THE FCST AREA AND
IMPROVING WX. WITH THE CORE OF THE UPR LOW MVG SOUTH OF THE
AREA...HAVE LWRD POPS A BIT AND INCRSD TEMPS AS THE COOLER AIR SHD
NOT BE OVHD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH US THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF
PERIOD, OWING TO LOWER CEILINGS, AND A PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR KRME, KITH, AND KBGM, EITHER IFR OR BELOW ALTERNATE MIN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME THROUGH MID-LATE
AFTERNOON (20-22Z). FOR KELM AND KSYR, IFR OR BELOW ALTERNATE MIN
CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE CENTERED AROUND THE PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
(ROUGHLY 10-18Z), WITH GENERALLY MVFR OTHERWISE. AT KAVP,
PRIMARILY MVFR IS ANTICIPATED, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR BELOW
ALTERNATE MIN POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING.

FROM LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED. IFR OR BELOW ALTERNATE MIN RESTRICTIONS MAY HANG ON
THE LONGEST AT KITH (PERHAPS TIL TOWARDS 00Z TUE), WHERE NW FLOW
IN A MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT TENDS TO PRODUCE LOWER
CONDITIONS.

AS FOR THE WINDS, THEY WILL BE E 5-8 KT AT KRME EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS (GENERALLY 5
KT OR LESS) THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING (ABOUT 20-21Z ONWARD), WINDS WILL BECOME N-NW
AT 5-8 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...IMPROVING TO VFR.

WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM/MLJ
AVIATION...JAB/MLJ




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020901
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
501 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COMPLEX...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROAD WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE WEST TODAY. AHEAD OF IT...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT HAVE 50% CHC ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND. WITH THE
LIFT TO THE EAST AND SOME NVA ALOFT BY MID-AFTERNOON...LOOKS LIKE
MOST OR ALL OF THE AFTERNOON COULD BE DRY FOR ALL SPOTS EXCEPT SE
CT WHERE RAINFALL COULD STILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR ANY THUNDER POTENTIAL...THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PRESENT...AND FORECAST MUCAPES SUGGEST THAT THIS
INSTABILITY REMAINS AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT THINKING IS THAT IT`S
TOO LOW OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN MID LEVELS DRY OUT.
STILL...HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STALLED
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE.
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AS A RESULT...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING AND
FOCUSED PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...BETTER LIFT WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. RAIN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...TAPERING TO A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN SLOWLY MOVE THE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE AFTER THAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A SPREAD IN DIRECTION
AND SPEED...WITH THE GFS/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE IT
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MOVES IT TOWARDS THE NE.
ALL BRING THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO AN END BY
SATURDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE N IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE
THE REGION GETS INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. SO HAVE
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...WHERE
THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DUE TO DIFFICULTIES ALL MODELS HAVE WITH TIMING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LULL OF MULTIPLE HOURS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO
SPECIFY WHEN THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...IF IT
INDEED HAPPENS.

FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED.
HIGHS SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
PASSES TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR
BOTH PERIODS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE ALSO BASED
ON THE SUPER BLEND...AND SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE EAST BY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER LOW
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY ENE 10 KT OR LESS
INTO THE MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS AND PATCHY DZ. CONDS MAY
IMPROVE A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK BUT STILL REMAIN IFR. SOME
QUESTIONS WHETHER RAIN CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN PA AND WEST VA
IMPACTS ALL TERMINALS AFT 12Z...BEST CHC N OF NYC...SO HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED TEMPOS S OF KHPN/KBDR/KGON AND WILL ADDRESS FURTHER IN
12Z TAFS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDS AND ALSO WINDS FOR MOST TERMINALS
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IFR OR LOWER CONDS SHOULD RETURN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF DEPENDING ON
WHAT OCCURS THIS AFTN.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN MAY NOT OCCUR WITH IFR
PREVAILING THE ENTIRE DAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN MAY NOT OCCUR WITH IFR
PREVAILING THE ENTIRE DAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN MAY NOT OCCUR WITH IFR
PREVAILING THE ENTIRE DAY.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN MAY NOT OCCUR WITH IFR
PREVAILING THE ENTIRE DAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDS MAY IMPROVE TO IFR EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. LOW CHC OF MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT OF LIFR CONDS THIS MORNING MAY
BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. MVFR CONDS THIS AFTN MAY NOT OCCUR WITH IFR
PREVAILING THE ENTIRE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE
AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE
LOWERING AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 5 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. MIGHT BE ABLE TO
DROP SCA BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION AT NOON AS WINDS AND SEA SWELL
SUBSIDE. SUB-SCA CONDS OTHERWISE TODAY AND TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS COULD
COME CLOSE TO 5 FT DURING TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP SEAS AT 4
FT.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND.
HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT SE SWELL COULD BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES
INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO INCH EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...THE CITY...AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. NO
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. IN
GENERAL...AMOUNTS EACH DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY
1/4 INCH OR LESS. AS A RESULT...LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KBUF 020854
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
454 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AFTER A
DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION /PER 00Z BUF RAOB/ EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. RADARS ARE SHOWING A WIDE SWATH OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO...NW PA AND
INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AT 09Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS OHIO WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE.

HAVE UPDATED THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THESE SHOWERS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON RADAR
EXTRAPOLATION AND 00Z MESO-MODELS. EXPECT AN ARRIVAL TIME INTO
BUFFALO 10-11Z...ROCHESTER 11-12Z AND WATERTOWN 13-14Z. THIS TIMING
COULD IMPACT MORNING COMMUTES WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. ANY EMBEDDED
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE CURRENT
INVERSION AND TRACKING NORTHEAST AS THE LOW TRACK ALONG A 925-850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE. 00Z KBUF SOUNDING SHOWED 55KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND
7+C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
STORMS AS THEY TRACK ACROSS PA AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEW YORK. BEING
OF AN ELEVATED NATURE...ONLY A VERY LOW CHANCE OF ANY SEVERE
IMPACTS. 00Z 4KM NAM DID SHOW SOME EVIDENCE OF MID LEVEL ROTATION
TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER NEAR 12Z SO WILL CERTAINLY
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE RADAR.

SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE CLEARING EAST OF WNY NEAR LUNCHTIME THEN
CLEARING EAST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK BY THE EVENING RUSH. OVERCAST
SKIES SHOULD HANG AROUND MOST OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. THIS COOL FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
LIMITED TO THE U40S/L50S FOR MOST TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN RIDGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH MAINLY DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS A DRIER AIRMASS SPREADS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES. HAVE INCLUDED A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL SLIP BACK INTO THE U30S/L40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK AS THE REGION WILL BE CAUGHT IN A RELATIVE LULL IN BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE RIDGING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY
WITH JUST PASSING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 60 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TUESDAY
NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT
ALONG AND WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM THE LAKES. WITH 850-700MB
LAPSE RATES FALLING TO -8C/KM AND MUCAPES POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 250-
500 J/KG...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S WITH 40S ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW IN THE
BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PLOWING IT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE PIEDMONT BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AS TO THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE ECMWF
HINTING AT MORE NORTHERLY 850MB FLOW VS THE EASTERLY FLOW OF THE
GFS...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. BEST SHOWER CHANCES ON THURSDAY WILL
BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NY CLOSEST TO THE CORE OF THE PASSING
UPPER LOW AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS HERE WITH A CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
SHALLOWER LAPSE RATES AND GREATER STABILITY SHOULD RULE OUT ANY
THUNDER. SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD AND
GENERALLY CLOUDY/SHOWERY CONDITIONS...LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S...THOUGH A FEW AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE 40S...RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY EDGE UP THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY
AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE A PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
PROGGED TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST ACROSS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...THIS IS MOSTLY A REFLECTION
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. IN
REALITY...AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW STAYS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AS
CURRENTLY PROGGED...IT SHOULD BE A DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE AS AN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FLIRT WITH THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
MANY AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK
TO CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A SHALLOW INVERSION.
SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR AFTER 11-14Z FOR WNY BUT AT THE COST OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND POSSIBLY SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIER. HAVE REMOVED VCTS
FROM ALL TAFS BUT KJHW BASED ON CONVECTION BEING LIMITED TOWARD THE
NY/PA BORDER. THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS SHOULD KEEP HIGHER
WINDS /20-30KTS/ ABOVE THE SURFACE AND TOO LOW FOR A LLWS THREAT.
VISIBILITIES MAY TEMPO TO IFR WITHIN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED
WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION.

AS THE STORMS SHIFT EAST OF WNY AROUND LUNCH TIME...LOW MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ONLY IMPROVING
BACK TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. IFR WILL HOLD LONGEST AT
KJHW. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL LIFT CIGS TO VFR AT ALL
SITES. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY LATEST LAMP RUN.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
NORTHEAST. BEHIND THESE STORMS...A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES INTO THE MID PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 020815
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
415 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF WEAK SYSTEMS ROTATING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES SHOWERY
THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
SOLID LOW OVERCAST...AND PATCHY DRIZZLE...HAVE BEEN THE THEMES
OVERNIGHT. MOIST SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ALSO
YIELDED AREAS OF FOG IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
CATSKILLS. QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY CAN BE FOUND IN HAZLETON AS
WELL AS MOUNT POCONO. ACTUAL RAIN HAS BEEN HARD TO FIND...BUT THAT
WILL SOON CHANGE.

SURFACE TROUGH...STRONG SHORTWAVE...AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF
JET ALOFT ARE ALL COMBINING THIS MORNING TO BRING A QUICK BATCH
OF MODERATE RAINFALL FOR THE WHOLE REGION...THOUGH LINGERING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. MODELS INDICATE THAT
SHOWALTER INDICES ALSO GO SLIGHTLY SUBZERO THIS MORNING...MAINLY
CENTRAL TWIN TIERS TO FINGER LAKES AREAS. AS THIS SYSTEM UPSTREAM
HAS INDEED YIELDED OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDER...I HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN CENTRAL TWIN TIERS-FINGER LAKES. A
FEW TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED...HEAVIEST IN CENTRAL NEW YORK WHERE SOME SPOTS COULD
APPROACH A HALF INCH. THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY
BACK SOME SHOWERS INTO THE POCONOS TO CATSKILLS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SMALLER CHANCES FURTHER NORTHWEST IN PLACES SUCH AS
TOWANDA-BINGHAMTON-ONEONTA...AND PROBABLY NONE AS FAR NORTH AS
THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY LOWER TO MID
40S...THOUGH SOME UPPER 40S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WYOMING AND
DELAWARE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
MULTIPLE WEAK RIPPLES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL POSE
AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST ZONES CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONT. WHILE THERE WILL BE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY...PARTICULARLY
FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY WHICH WILL PROBABLY GET NOTHING AT
ALL. HIGHS WILL BE UPPER 50S-NEAR 60 TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWS OF
MAINLY MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE AREAWIDE AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
PRODUCES A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH THEN
APPROACHES OUR REGION. THOUGH NOT MUCH OVERALL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...IT WILL BE DAMP CLOUDY COOL AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
4 AM MONDAY UPDATE...
THE LATEST MODEL CYCLE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD SYNC WITH RECENT RUNS.
BIG PICTURE IDEAS REMAIN THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK, AS AN OMEGA BLOCK BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THINGS CONTINUE
TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN WE WERE SEEING 24-48 HOURS
AGO, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

AS A RESULT OF THE ABOVE REASONING, CLOUDY, COOL, AND SHOWERY
WEATHER MAY ONLY REALLY AFFECT NY AND PA THU.-FRI., WITH FRI.
PERHAPS EVEN SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATER IN THE DAY. SAT.
NOW LOOKS MOSTLY RAIN-FREE, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY MAY (HIGHS IN THE 60S-LOWER 70S). A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS ON SUN., WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
RETURNING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK (DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S).

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN RESPECT TO THE
XPCTD CLSD LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE
OH VLY THU DVLPS INTO A CLSD LOW WHICH DRFTS TO THE NC CST BY FRI
MRNG. THIS WILL KEEP SHWRS AND COOL AIR OVER THE AREA THRU THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY SAT MRNG...UPR LOW AS DRFTD INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC...PERHAPS AS A RESPONSE TO THE WV PUSHING INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BIT OF WEAK RDGG OVER THE FCST AREA AND
IMPROVING WX. WITH THE CORE OF THE UPR LOW MVG SOUTH OF THE
AREA...HAVE LWRD POPS A BIT AND INCRSD TEMPS AS THE COOLER AIR SHD
NOT BE OVHD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH US THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF
PERIOD, OWING TO LOWER CEILINGS, AND A PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR KRME, KITH, AND KBGM, EITHER IFR OR BELOW ALTERNATE MIN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME THROUGH MID-LATE
AFTERNOON (20-22Z). FOR KELM AND KSYR, IFR OR BELOW ALTERNATE MIN
CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE CENTERED AROUND THE PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
(ROUGHLY 10-18Z), WITH GENERALLY MVFR OTHERWISE. AT KAVP,
PRIMARILY MVFR IS ANTICIPATED, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR BELOW
ALTERNATE MIN POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING.

FROM LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED. IFR OR BELOW ALTERNATE MIN RESTRICTIONS MAY HANG ON
THE LONGEST AT KITH (PERHAPS TIL TOWARDS 00Z TUE), WHERE NW FLOW
IN A MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT TENDS TO PRODUCE LOWER
CONDITIONS.

AS FOR THE WINDS, THEY WILL BE E 5-8 KT AT KRME EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS (GENERALLY 5
KT OR LESS) THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING (ABOUT 20-21Z ONWARD), WINDS WILL BECOME N-NW
AT 5-8 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...IMPROVING TO VFR.

WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM/MLJ
AVIATION...JAB/MLJ




000
FXUS61 KALY 020814
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
414 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY.  ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST ON TUESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES FROM THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS AN UPPER LOW AND
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT...A COOL AND DAMP AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORT- WAVE COUPLED WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH N/NE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE PA-MD BORDER
WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAINFALL INTO THE REGION IN THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.

UPSTREAM THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBS...RAP AND HRRR
...SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER ERN OH MOVING INTO
W-CNTRL PA. A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS
W-CNTRL NY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...AND THEN EXPAND EASTWARD INTO ERN
NY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE RAIN SHOULD ENCOMPASS ALL OF ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 12Z-15Z...AND THEN THE ACTIVITY COULD BE
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY STABLE...THOUGH A POCKET OF STEEPER
MID LAPSE RATES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT-WAVE...AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER THE SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES OF 0 TO
-2C ON THE LATEST NAM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. A
SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PLACED IN THE GRIDS IN THE EARLY
TO MID PM OVER THE WRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...ERN
CATSKILLS...AND NEAR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A RUMBLE OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN TWO TENTHS AND A
HALF AN INCH FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS FROM THE
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY AND THERMAL ADVECTIONS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WHERE SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE PASSES DOWNSTREAM...BUT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PIEDMONT AREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY AIDS THE SYSTEM FROM THE OH VALLEY
BY TUE MORNING. OVER RUNNING LIGHT RAINFALL OR SHOWERS SPREADS
N/NE INTO SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING RAINFALL ALL THE WAY NORTH TO ALMOST THE
CAPITAL REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN GUIDANCE AND THE GEFS. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE TUE. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO L40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP DEMARCATION BETWEEN THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH THE SFC WAVE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION...AND WHERE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. WE HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHC AND CHC POPS IN FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY.
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER OVER THE NRN ZONES
WHERE SOME SUNSHINE MAY OCCUR WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION...UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND PARTS OF
SRN VT. EXPECT MID AND U50S FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE LIGHT
RAIN OR SCT SHOWERS.

TUE NIGHT...A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR EARLY ON...BUT ANOTHER
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SW FLOW MAY SPAWN SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE ECMWF/GFS. THE BIGGER
ISSUE IS THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOVER OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DIGGING EQUATORWARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE A MAJOR
PLAYER IN TERMS OF MORE UNSETTLED WX TO CLOSE THE WEEK. LOWS
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS
AND SRN DACKS.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN EVOLVING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS. INITIALLY EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES WILL BRING SCT
SHOWERS TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT. BY THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SCT SHOWERS MAY DIMINISH A
BIT WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. OUR
HIGHEST POPS WED PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS LOOK MORE SEASONABLE
IN THE U50S TO M60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA TO BE DOMINATED BY CUTOFF
LOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES 2-3 SD
BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE 1-2 SD ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECTED WEATHER COOL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE DANK...DREARY WEATHER ON
SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR SATURDAY...LOCAL WEATHER WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE CUTOFF LOW AND PROXIMITY TO EAST
COAST. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS
WITH WINDS TURNING FROM NORTHERLY EARLY SATURDAY...TO WESTERLY BY
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL AT LEAST BRING DRIER CONDITIONS. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS A SPLIT BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND
GEFS ENSEMBLES. BOTH 00Z OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS BRING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GEFS GUIDANCE INDICATES FRONT
WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. BIG
DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST AS OPERATIONAL MODELS WOULD
HAVE A CLOUDY...SHOWERY MOTHERS DAY WHILES GEFS WOULD INDICATE A
BREEZY...FAIR SUMMER LIKE DAY. FOR NOW...CHANCE POPS WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 06Z TUESDAY.

A PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS...WITH RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY IN RAIN AND FOG
AND LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...AVERAGING BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.
THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP.

TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER RAIN TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER
SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND
SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF LOW. THERE IS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.
WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT FOR THE STRETCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING FRIDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY TODAY...TAPERING OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE
TO RECENT DRYNESS...AND THE VEGETATION IS GREENING UP. THE
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW
FOR THE ALBANY HSA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020805
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
405 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BRINGING
RAIN BY NOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND AWAY FROM NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT MONDAY...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS.

ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ARRIVES LATE MORNING ASSOCIATED
TROF MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL REDEVELOP RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR REGION BY NOON TODAY AND WILL TAPER OFF BETWEEN
5 AND 8 PM. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
REGIONS WHERE UP TO ANOTHER HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL WHILE ONLY
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED IN THE FAR NW/ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

HIGHEST POPS 80-100 %/CATEGORICAL WILL BE DURING MIDDAY THEN TAPERING
OFF TOWARDS BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE A 5-10 DEGREES
TODAY WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED. COOL HIGHS AGAIN TODAY IN
THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH LIGHT WINDS IN MOST PLACES.

TONIGHT THINGS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT FOR THE MOST PART AS SHORT
WAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. BUT EXPECTING CLOUDS TO PERSIST
ALONG WITH SOME BLOCKED LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW. COULD ALSO
BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR DRIZZLE ON THE NW SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT QPF. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING WILL BE
IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM / TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DRY...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S. UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA AND BEGIN TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL BE THE UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE AROUND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OUR AREA WILL STILL BE
INFLUENCED BY THIS SYSTEM AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUS HAVE KEPT THAT IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST.
THE LOW MAY FINALLY GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO HAVE LITTLE
INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
TIME PERIOD. THIS COULD VERY WELL BE OUR ONLY STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN FROM
CANADA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR A BETTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND
MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST AN
OVERALL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH EVEN
SOME LOCATIONS HAVING A SHOT AT 70 IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR INTERVALS
FROM VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE, MIST AND STRATUS. LOW CEILINGS WILL
OBSCURE MTNS.

WARM FRONTAL RAIN IS LIFTING NORTHWARD, WITH ONLY A COUPLE MORE
HOURS OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER 03Z,
UNSATURATED CONDITIONS ALOFT SUPPORT AREAS OF DRIZZLE
(INTERSPERSED WITH MIST) LASTING THROUGH LATE MORNING MONDAY
(14-16Z) MONDAY. IT`S DURING THIS 03-14Z TIME PERIOD WHERE
CEILINGS/VIS MAY DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE. I`VE TRIED TO HINT AT
THIS WITH SCT IFR CEILINGS IN PREVAILING MVFR DECK. WINDS
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 4-8 KTS TRENDING LIGHT/VARIABLE.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS NEXT SHOT OF STEADIER LIGHT
RAIN AFTER 14Z LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WITH 3-5 SM RAIN BUT STILL A THREAT OF IFR CIGS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FLOW TURNS FROM LIGHT NE/SE TO LIGHT
NORTHERLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE IFR IS LOW BUT HIGH FOR MVFR.

RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING AFT 00Z WITH TREND TOWARD VFR AT KMSS/KPBG
BY 03-06Z BUT PERSISTENT MVFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUE - 12Z TUE: MVFR IN RAIN. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW
CEILINGS.
TUE - WED: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON.
THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.
FRI: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020751
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
351 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COMPLEX...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROAD WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE WEST TODAY. AHEAD OF IT...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT HAVE 50% CHC ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND. WITH THE
LIFT TO THE EAST AND SOME NVA ALOFT BY MID-AFTERNOON...LOOKS LIKE
MOST OR ALL OF THE AFTERNOON COULD BE DRY FOR ALL SPOTS EXCEPT SE
CT WHERE RAINFALL COULD STILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR ANY THUNDER POTENTIAL...THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PRESENT...AND FORECAST MUCAPES SUGGEST THAT THIS
INSTABILITY REMAINS AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT THINKING IS THAT IT`S
TOO LOW OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN MID LEVELS DRY OUT.
STILL...HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STALLED
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFFSHORE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE.
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AS A RESULT...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING AND
FOCUSED PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...BETTER LIFT WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. RAIN CONTINUES DURING THIS TIME...TAPERING TO A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN SLOWLY MOVE THE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE AFTER THAT...HOWEVER THERE IS A SPREAD IN DIRECTION
AND SPEED...WITH THE GFS/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE IT
EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MOVES IT TOWARDS THE NE.
ALL BRING THE IMPACT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TO AN END BY
SATURDAY EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE N IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE
THE REGION GETS INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. SO HAVE
CHANCE POPS OVER ALL BUT ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA...WHERE
THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DUE TO DIFFICULTIES ALL MODELS HAVE WITH TIMING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY FOR ON AND OFF SHOWERS. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LULL OF MULTIPLE HOURS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO
SPECIFY WHEN THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...IF IT
INDEED HAPPENS.

FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED.
HIGHS SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
PASSES TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR
BOTH PERIODS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE ALSO BASED
ON THE SUPER BLEND...AND SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE EAST BY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER LOW
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY ENE 10 KT OR LESS
INTO THE MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS AND AREAS OF DZ. CONDS MAY
IMPROVE A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK BUT STILL REMAIN IFR. SOME
QUESTIONS WHETHER RAIN CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IMPACTS ALL
TERMINALS AFT 12Z...BEST CHC N OF NYC...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
TEMPOS S OF KHPN/KBDR/KGON AND WILL ADDRESS FURTHER IN SUBSEQUENT
TAFS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDS AND ALSO WINDS FOR MOST TERMINALS
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IFR OR LOWER CONDS SHOULD RETURN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF DEPENDING ON
WHAT OCCURS THIS AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE
AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE
LOWERING AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 5 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. MIGHT BE ABLE TO
DROP SCA BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION AT NOON AS WINDS AND SEA SWELL
SUBSIDE. SUB-SCA CONDS OTHERWISE TODAY AND TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS COULD
COME CLOSE TO 5 FT DURING TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP SEAS AT 4
FT.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND.
HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT SE SWELL COULD BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MORICHES
INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO INCH EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...THE CITY...AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. NO
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. IN
GENERAL...AMOUNTS EACH DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY
1/4 INCH OR LESS. AS A RESULT...LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KBGM 020751
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
351 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF WEAK STORMS ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
715 PM UPDATE...THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY PROGGED TO TRACK NE
TOWARD PA BY MORNING. FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT, NOT EXPECTING
MUCH...JUST A FEW LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE.
LATE TONIGHT, TOWARD 12Z, NEXT BATCH OF HEAVIER AND STEADIER RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH S/W ALOFT
AND APPROACHING SFC LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BUDGE TOO MUCH
TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND WAA PATTERN WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
305 PM UPDATE...
A POTENT WAVE WILL PASS OVER NY/PA EARLY MONDAY, BRINGING A QUICK SHOT
OF MODERATE RAINS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF OUR
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OUR
VICINITY. THOUGH RAINS WILL TAPER OFF, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER NY AND PA FROM TIME TO TIME.

A MEAN TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIPPING OUT OF ONTARIO ACROSS NY/PA EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, AS COOLER AIR
KEEPS TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...4 AM MONDAY UPDATE...
THE LATEST MODEL CYCLE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD SYNC WITH RECENT RUNS.
BIG PICTURE IDEAS REMAIN THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK, AS AN OMEGA BLOCK BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THINGS CONTINUE
TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN WE WERE SEEING 24-48 HOURS
AGO, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

AS A RESULT OF THE ABOVE REASONING, CLOUDY, COOL, AND SHOWERY
WEATHER MAY ONLY REALLY AFFECT NY AND PA THU.-FRI., WITH FRI.
PERHAPS EVEN SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATER IN THE DAY. SAT.
NOW LOOKS MOSTLY RAIN-FREE, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY MAY (HIGHS IN THE 60S-LOWER 70S). A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS ON SUN., WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
RETURNING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK (DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S).

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN RESPECT TO THE
XPCTD CLSD LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE
OH VLY THU DVLPS INTO A CLSD LOW WHICH DRFTS TO THE NC CST BY FRI
MRNG. THIS WILL KEEP SHWRS AND COOL AIR OVER THE AREA THRU THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY SAT MRNG...UPR LOW AS DRFTD INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC...PERHAPS AS A RESPONSE TO THE WV PUSHING INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BIT OF WEAK RDGG OVER THE FCST AREA AND
IMPROVING WX. WITH THE CORE OF THE UPR LOW MVG SOUTH OF THE
AREA...HAVE LWRD POPS A BIT AND INCRSD TEMPS AS THE COOLER AIR SHD
NOT BE OVHD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH US THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF
PERIOD, OWING TO LOWER CEILINGS, AND A PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR KRME, KITH, AND KBGM, EITHER IFR OR BELOW ALTERNATE MIN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME THROUGH MID-LATE
AFTERNOON (20-22Z). FOR KELM AND KSYR, IFR OR BELOW ALTERNATE MIN
CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE CENTERED AROUND THE PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
(ROUGHLY 10-18Z), WITH GENERALLY MVFR OTHERWISE. AT KAVP,
PRIMARILY MVFR IS ANTICIPATED, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR BELOW
ALTERNATE MIN POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING.

FROM LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED. IFR OR BELOW ALTERNATE MIN RESTRICTIONS MAY HANG ON
THE LONGEST AT KITH (PERHAPS TIL TOWARDS 00Z TUE), WHERE NW FLOW
IN A MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT TENDS TO PRODUCE LOWER
CONDITIONS.

AS FOR THE WINDS, THEY WILL BE E 5-8 KT AT KRME EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS (GENERALLY 5
KT OR LESS) THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING (ABOUT 20-21Z ONWARD), WINDS WILL BECOME N-NW
AT 5-8 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...IMPROVING TO VFR.

WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM/MLJ
AVIATION...JAB/MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBUF 020636
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
236 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AFTER A
DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION /PER 00Z BUF RAOB/ EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. RADARS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY RETURNS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT 06Z BUT KROC IS REPORTING SOME DRIZZLE IN A NORTH
FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. LOOKING SOUTHWEST OF NEW YORK...RADARS AND
LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORKS ARE SHOWING A WIDE SWATH OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS OHIO. THIS
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS OHIO
WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER WESTERN
LAKE ERIE.

HAVE UPDATED THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THESE SHOWERS WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON RADAR EXTRAPOLATION
AND 00Z MESO-MODELS. EXPECT AN ARRIVAL TIME INTO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER NEAR 9-11Z THEN MOVING INTO BUFFALO 10-12Z...ROCHESTER
12-13Z AND WATERTOWN 15-16Z. THIS TIMING COULD IMPACT MORNING
COMMUTES WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN AND REDUCED VISIBILITY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE CURRENT INVERSION AND TRACKING
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW TRACK ALONG A 925-850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. 00Z
KBUF SOUNDING SHOWED 55KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND 7+C/KM MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE STORMS AS THEY
TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BEING OF AN ELEVATED NATURE...ONLY A
VERY LOW CHANCE OF ANY SEVERE IMPACTS. 00Z 4KM NAM DID SHOW SOME
EVIDENCE OF MID LEVEL ROTATION TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER NEAR 12Z SO WILL CERTAINLY KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE RADAR.

SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE CLEARING EAST OF WNY NEAR LUNCHTIME THEN
CLEARING EAST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK BY THE EVENING RUSH. OVERCAST
SKIES SHOULD HANG AROUND MOST OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. THIS COOL FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
LIMITED TO THE U40S/L50S FOR MOST TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY 00Z TUESDAY...EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE PRECIPITATION-FREE BY THE
TIME WE REACH SUNSET...THOUGH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY STILL BE IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE PLAINS.

AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WHILE YET
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND
DELMARVA REGION. THIS LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD THUS REMAIN ON A FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TRACK TO KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD CONFINED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST... THUS THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH GRADUAL
DRYING AND SLOWLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING TO DRIVE THE
LIMITED CLEARING FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER INLAND...THOUGH
SKIES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

ON TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH
THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH SLIDING EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN...
OUR REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPENSATING ZONE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED
FAIR/DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AS
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LINGERING LOWER CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE... 850 MB TEMPS OF +2C TO
+4C SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH
IS DEAD-ON AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE LINGERING SURFACE WAVE/FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST... AND THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH A NARROWING COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/RELATIVELY DRIER AIR REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. OVERALL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND PAST
EXPERIENCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE ALSO
CASTING CONSIDERABLE DOUBT UPON THE PRECIP BEING SPIT OUT BY THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS PARTICULARLY
OVERDONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PULL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS FOR
TEMPS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

AFTER THAT...THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
DECIDED TURN TO MORE UNSETTLED AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WEATHER AS
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION... AND BECOMES THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE GRADUAL
MERGING OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COASTAL SURFACE WAVES INTO A
SINGLE...BUT ALSO RATHER BROAD AND DIFFUSE LOW THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

AS THE ABOVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...THE COMBINATION OF THE MERGING
SURFACE FEATURES...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND SLOWLY COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN
PINNING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES
DRIVING ANY SUCH SHOWERS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IN THIS KIND OF
PATTERN...FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH
BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE SOME RAIN FREE PERIODS.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS STILL IN THE +2C TO +4C
RANGE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOW COOLING OF OUR
AIRMASS RESULTS IN READINGS PULLING BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
FOR THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES...THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT TWIN...DEEP CLOSED LOWS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR BOTH COASTS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS GENERAL PATTERN...THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
IN THE THINKING FOR THE POSITION OF THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW BY THE
WEEKEND.

ALL OF THE MODELS ARE NOW PUSHING THE STACKED CLOSED LOW FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE CLOSED LOW BEING SHUNTED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN THE CLOSED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST...AND EVENTUALLY A DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER LAKES. THE GENERAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL OFFER MORE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
AND CERTAINLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES. INSTEAD OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
MERCURY READINGS...WE SHOULD CLIMB TO ABV NORMAL LEVELS FOR BOTH
DAYS OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAX`S RANGING FROM 65 TO AS HIGH AS 70 (SRN
TIER AND GEN VALLEYS).

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A SHALLOW INVERSION.
SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR AFTER 11-14Z FOR WNY BUT AT THE COST OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION. HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS WITH CB IN THE TAFS AS UPSTREAM OBS AND
RADAR SHOWS CURRENT LIGHTNING SHIFTING ACROSS OHIO. THE ELEVATED
NATURE OF THE STORMS SHOULD KEEP HIGHER WINDS /20-30KTS/ ABOVE THE
SURFACE AND TOO LOW FOR A LLWS THREAT. VISIBILITIES MAY TEMPO TO IFR
WITHIN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION.

AS THE STORMS SHIFT EAST OF WNY AROUND LUNCHTIME...LOW MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ONLY IMPROVING BACK TO VFR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. IFR WILL HOLD LONGEST AT KJHW. DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING WILL LIFT CIGS TO VFR AT ALL SITES. THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY LATEST LAMP RUN.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
NORTHEAST. BEHIND THESE STORMS...A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES INTO THE MID PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020618
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
218 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY THIS WEEK. A MORE
COMPLEX LOW WILL WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY WAS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD LATE
THIS EVENING WHILE ANOTHER WEAK LOW RIDES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. COOL MOIST FLOW IN PLACE WILL MAINTAIN
OVERCAST/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG...WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEARLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
LEAD TO A PD OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POP. MID LEVELS SHOULD DRY OUT MID TO LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT BKN/OVC LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN.

ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...
CONDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED...AND CAN EXPECT SOME LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.

UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDS ON TAP WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN TRACK TO THE SE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN MEANDER HERE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THIS
SCENARIO AND THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. HOWEVER...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITY OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SHOWERS AT ANY TIME.

BEFORE THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS...A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND ON TUESDAY ACTS A FOCUS FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND RIDE ALONG IT. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 115-125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TUESDAY MORNING. THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RAIN EXISTS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTHERN TIER FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE
BOUNDARY/WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SO
DID NOT WANT TO RAISE POPS ANY FURTHER THAN LIKELY. THE UPPER JET
CORE SHIFTS TO THE NE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH DECREASES
LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HAVE GENERALLY KEPT CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PREDICTABILITY WITH ANY SMALLER SCALE FEATURE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF IS RATHER LOW. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS
AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THEM AT THIS JUNCTURE IS
RATHER DIFFICULT AND SHOWS HIGH VARIABILITY RUN TO RUN IN THE
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ANY PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE CUTOFF AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE
COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
SUITE...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE SINCE THIS IS STILL SEVEN DAYS OUT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE EAST BY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER LOW
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY ENE 10 KT OR LESS
INTO THE MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS AND AREAS OF DZ. CONDS MAY
IMPROVE A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK BUT STILL REMAIN IFR. SOME
QUESTIONS WHETHER RAIN CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IMPACTS ALL
TERMINALS AFT 12Z...BEST CHC N OF NYC...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
TEMPOS S OF KHPN/KBDR/KGON AND WILL ADDRESS FURTHER IN SUBSEQUENT
TAFS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDS AND ALSO WINDS FOR MOST TERMINALS
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IFR OR LOWER CONDS SHOULD RETURN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF DEPENDING ON
WHAT OCCURS THIS AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE
AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE
LOWERING AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS ARE RUNNING 5-6 FT OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO
25 KT. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN WITH A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDS
MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEAK WITH
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SEAS MAY PUSH OVER 5 FT LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/4-1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUE.
NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL CONTINUE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING...LOCATION...AND AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020618
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
218 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY THIS WEEK. A MORE
COMPLEX LOW WILL WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY WAS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD LATE
THIS EVENING WHILE ANOTHER WEAK LOW RIDES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. COOL MOIST FLOW IN PLACE WILL MAINTAIN
OVERCAST/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG...WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEARLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
LEAD TO A PD OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POP. MID LEVELS SHOULD DRY OUT MID TO LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT BKN/OVC LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN.

ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...
CONDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED...AND CAN EXPECT SOME LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.

UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDS ON TAP WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN TRACK TO THE SE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN MEANDER HERE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THIS
SCENARIO AND THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. HOWEVER...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITY OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SHOWERS AT ANY TIME.

BEFORE THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS...A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND ON TUESDAY ACTS A FOCUS FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND RIDE ALONG IT. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 115-125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TUESDAY MORNING. THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RAIN EXISTS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTHERN TIER FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE
BOUNDARY/WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SO
DID NOT WANT TO RAISE POPS ANY FURTHER THAN LIKELY. THE UPPER JET
CORE SHIFTS TO THE NE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH DECREASES
LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HAVE GENERALLY KEPT CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PREDICTABILITY WITH ANY SMALLER SCALE FEATURE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF IS RATHER LOW. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS
AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THEM AT THIS JUNCTURE IS
RATHER DIFFICULT AND SHOWS HIGH VARIABILITY RUN TO RUN IN THE
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ANY PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE CUTOFF AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE
COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
SUITE...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE SINCE THIS IS STILL SEVEN DAYS OUT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE EAST BY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER LOW
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY ENE 10 KT OR LESS
INTO THE MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS AND AREAS OF DZ. CONDS MAY
IMPROVE A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK BUT STILL REMAIN IFR. SOME
QUESTIONS WHETHER RAIN CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IMPACTS ALL
TERMINALS AFT 12Z...BEST CHC N OF NYC...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
TEMPOS S OF KHPN/KBDR/KGON AND WILL ADDRESS FURTHER IN SUBSEQUENT
TAFS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDS AND ALSO WINDS FOR MOST TERMINALS
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IFR OR LOWER CONDS SHOULD RETURN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF DEPENDING ON
WHAT OCCURS THIS AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN THROUGH TUE
AFTN. MVFR CONDS MAY RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE
LOWERING AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS ARE RUNNING 5-6 FT OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO
25 KT. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN WITH A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDS
MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEAK WITH
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SEAS MAY PUSH OVER 5 FT LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/4-1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUE.
NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL CONTINUE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING...LOCATION...AND AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020611
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
211 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND
OFF THE COAST AND AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING
ANOTHER RAINY DAY TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUES LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 211 AM EDT MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME AS
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE
OR SHOWERS THE REST OF OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL
REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS.

ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ARRIVES MID MORNING ASSOCIATED TROF
MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL REDEVELOP RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR REGION BY NOON TODAY AND WILL TAPER OFF BETWEEN 5 AND 8
PM. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
REGIONS WHERE UP TO ANOTHER HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL WHILE ONLY
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED IN THE FAR NW/ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

HIGHEST POPS 80-100 %/CATEGORICAL WILL BE DURING MIDDAY THEN TAPERING
OFF TOWARDS BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE A 5-10 DEGREES
TODAY WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED. HIGHS AGAIN TODAY IN THE 40S
TO AROUND 50 WITH LIGHT WINDS IN MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS THEN EXIT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING WEAK RIDGING DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
WITH OCCASIONAL PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER TIME,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 35
TO 45 RANGE AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY FROM 57 TO 63 OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY BY THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEAK AS DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SETTLES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH, LIKELY CUTTING
OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD. THESE LATEST TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS/PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR ON THE FRONT END OF THE TROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BEYOND WHICH DEFAULT RIDGING LOOKS TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS OUR REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CLOSED
SYSTEM. AS SUCH I`VE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SHOWERS
(40-60 PCT) IN THE EARLIER TIME FRAMES, THEN TRENDED MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH LOWER POPS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME WILL
TELL HOW ALL THIS EVOLVES, AND IT`S ALWAYS A BIT TRICKY WHEN
DEALING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOWS. PER LATEST BLENDED
925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES FROM THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS EACH DAY
MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. IF
MORE SUN IS REALIZED BY LATER IN THE WEEK SOME LOWER 70S WILL BE
POSSIBLE. YES FOLKS, SPRING HAS FINALLY ARRIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR INTERVALS
FROM VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE, MIST AND STRATUS. LOW CEILINGS WILL
OBSCURE MTNS.

WARM FRONTAL RAIN IS LIFTING NORTHWARD, WITH ONLY A COUPLE MORE
HOURS OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER 03Z,
UNSATURATED CONDITIONS ALOFT SUPPORT AREAS OF DRIZZLE
(INTERSPERSED WITH MIST) LASTING THROUGH LATE MORNING MONDAY
(14-16Z) MONDAY. IT`S DURING THIS 03-14Z TIME PERIOD WHERE
CEILINGS/VIS MAY DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE. I`VE TRIED TO HINT AT
THIS WITH SCT IFR CEILINGS IN PREVAILING MVFR DECK. WINDS
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 4-8 KTS TRENDING LIGHT/VARIABLE.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS NEXT SHOT OF STEADIER LIGHT
RAIN AFTER 14Z LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WITH 3-5 SM RAIN BUT STILL A THREAT OF IFR CIGS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FLOW TURNS FROM LIGHT NE/SE TO LIGHT
NORTHERLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE IFR IS LOW BUT HIGH FOR MVFR.

RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING AFT 00Z WITH TREND TOWARD VFR AT KMSS/KPBG
BY 03-06Z BUT PERSISTENT MVFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUE - 12Z TUE: MVFR IN RAIN. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW
CEILINGS.
TUE - WED: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON.
THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.
FRI: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBGM 020606
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
206 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF WEAK STORMS ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY PROGGED TO TRACK NE
TOWARD PA BY MORNING. FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT, NOT EXPECTING
MUCH...JUST A FEW LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE.
LATE TONIGHT, TOWARD 12Z, NEXT BATCH OF HEAVIER AND STEADIER RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH S/W ALOFT
AND APPROACHING SFC LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BUDGE TOO MUCH
TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND WAA PATTERN WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
305 PM UPDATE...
A POTENT WAVE WILL PASS OVER NY/PA EARLY MONDAY, BRINGING A QUICK SHOT
OF MODERATE RAINS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF OUR
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OUR
VICINITY. THOUGH RAINS WILL TAPER OFF, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER NY AND PA FROM TIME TO TIME.

A MEAN TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIPPING OUT OF ONTARIO ACROSS NY/PA EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, AS COOLER AIR
KEEPS TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN RESPECT TO THE
XPCTD CLSD LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE
OH VLY THU DVLPS INTO A CLSD LOW WHICH DRFTS TO THE NC CST BY FRI
MRNG. THIS WILL KEEP SHWRS AND COOL AIR OVER THE AREA THRU THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY SAT MRNG...UPR LOW AS DRFTD INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC...PERHAPS AS A RESPONSE TO THE WV PUSHING INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BIT OF WEAK RDGG OVER THE FCST AREA AND
IMPROVING WX. WITH THE CORE OF THE UPR LOW MVG SOUTH OF THE
AREA...HAVE LWRD POPS A BIT AND INCRSD TEMPS AS THE COOLER AIR SHD
NOT BE OVHD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH US THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF
PERIOD, OWING TO LOWER CEILINGS, AND A PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR KRME, KITH, AND KBGM, EITHER IFR OR BELOW ALTERNATE MIN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME THROUGH MID-LATE
AFTERNOON (20-22Z). FOR KELM AND KSYR, IFR OR BELOW ALTERNATE MIN
CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE CENTERED AROUND THE PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
(ROUGHLY 10-18Z), WITH GENERALLY MVFR OTHERWISE. AT KAVP,
PRIMARILY MVFR IS ANTICIPATED, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR BELOW
ALTERNATE MIN POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING.

FROM LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED. IFR OR BELOW ALTERNATE MIN RESTRICTIONS MAY HANG ON
THE LONGEST AT KITH (PERHAPS TIL TOWARDS 00Z TUE), WHERE NW FLOW
IN A MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT TENDS TO PRODUCE LOWER
CONDITIONS.

AS FOR THE WINDS, THEY WILL BE E 5-8 KT AT KRME EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS (GENERALLY 5
KT OR LESS) THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING (ABOUT 20-21Z ONWARD), WINDS WILL BECOME N-NW
AT 5-8 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...IMPROVING TO VFR.

WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...JAB/MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBGM 020606
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
206 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF WEAK STORMS ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY PROGGED TO TRACK NE
TOWARD PA BY MORNING. FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT, NOT EXPECTING
MUCH...JUST A FEW LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE.
LATE TONIGHT, TOWARD 12Z, NEXT BATCH OF HEAVIER AND STEADIER RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH S/W ALOFT
AND APPROACHING SFC LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BUDGE TOO MUCH
TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND WAA PATTERN WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
305 PM UPDATE...
A POTENT WAVE WILL PASS OVER NY/PA EARLY MONDAY, BRINGING A QUICK SHOT
OF MODERATE RAINS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF OUR
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OUR
VICINITY. THOUGH RAINS WILL TAPER OFF, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER NY AND PA FROM TIME TO TIME.

A MEAN TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIPPING OUT OF ONTARIO ACROSS NY/PA EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, AS COOLER AIR
KEEPS TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN RESPECT TO THE
XPCTD CLSD LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE
OH VLY THU DVLPS INTO A CLSD LOW WHICH DRFTS TO THE NC CST BY FRI
MRNG. THIS WILL KEEP SHWRS AND COOL AIR OVER THE AREA THRU THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY SAT MRNG...UPR LOW AS DRFTD INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC...PERHAPS AS A RESPONSE TO THE WV PUSHING INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BIT OF WEAK RDGG OVER THE FCST AREA AND
IMPROVING WX. WITH THE CORE OF THE UPR LOW MVG SOUTH OF THE
AREA...HAVE LWRD POPS A BIT AND INCRSD TEMPS AS THE COOLER AIR SHD
NOT BE OVHD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH US THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF
PERIOD, OWING TO LOWER CEILINGS, AND A PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR KRME, KITH, AND KBGM, EITHER IFR OR BELOW ALTERNATE MIN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME THROUGH MID-LATE
AFTERNOON (20-22Z). FOR KELM AND KSYR, IFR OR BELOW ALTERNATE MIN
CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE CENTERED AROUND THE PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
(ROUGHLY 10-18Z), WITH GENERALLY MVFR OTHERWISE. AT KAVP,
PRIMARILY MVFR IS ANTICIPATED, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR BELOW
ALTERNATE MIN POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING.

FROM LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED. IFR OR BELOW ALTERNATE MIN RESTRICTIONS MAY HANG ON
THE LONGEST AT KITH (PERHAPS TIL TOWARDS 00Z TUE), WHERE NW FLOW
IN A MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT TENDS TO PRODUCE LOWER
CONDITIONS.

AS FOR THE WINDS, THEY WILL BE E 5-8 KT AT KRME EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS (GENERALLY 5
KT OR LESS) THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING (ABOUT 20-21Z ONWARD), WINDS WILL BECOME N-NW
AT 5-8 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...IMPROVING TO VFR.

WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...JAB/MLJ




000
FXUS61 KALY 020544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL ALLOW RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...A COOL AND RELATIVELY DAMP AIR MASS REMAINS
ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE IN THE
M30S TO M40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE VARIATION EXPECTED. AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND
LIGHT ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST...UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES BTWN 11Z-14Z WITH ANOTHER
BOUT OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL
LINGER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG WITH STRATUS
EVERYWHERE.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO ARRIVES AFTER SUNRISE TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER. THEN...THIS SHIELD WILL LIKELY RIDE ALONG THE I-88
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...SPREADING FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH LIGHTER PATCHES OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS THE
ACTUAL WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE
REGION.

EXPECT ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF RAIN TO FALL FROM ALBANY
NORTH...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE RAIN/DRIZZLE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL ONCE BUT PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER
THAN SUNDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS 45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN...50-55 MOST
VALLEY AREAS...55-60 SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVENING GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE REGION...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LIGHT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF REGION. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPR
LAYERS...AND GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AND WEAK LEVEL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY
AREAS INTO MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF REGION OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MODELS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TOWARD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD IS UNSETTLED.

WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ONE...POSSIBLY TWO CUTOFF LOWS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

THE PERIOD OPENS UP ONE CUT OFF LOW SITTING SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PA OR WV. CSTAR STUDIES HAVE INDICATED WHEN
CUTOFF LOW IS IN SUCH A POSITION...A SURFACE LOW WOULD BE PARKED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION
ZONE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION.

HOWEVER...SO FAR...IN THIS CASE...ALL LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INSIST THAT THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATED "NORMAL" AMOUNTS
OF PWATS OVER OUR REGION MIDWEEK.

CSTAR STUDIES WOULD DICTATE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS
AGAIN...NORMALLY SUCH A POSITION FOR A CUTOFF COULD SPELL LOTS OF
RAIN FOR OUR REGION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LOT OF DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE LOW KEEPING THINGS LESS WET.

THAT SAID...WE WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS IN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND
AS THIS CUTOFF LOW IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...LIKELY OFF THE DE OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO DROP SOUTH
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

THE TIMING OF RAIN AND EVEN ULTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWS 45-50
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40-45 WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 06Z TUESDAY.

A PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS...WITH RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY IN RAIN AND FOG
AND LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...AVERAGING BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.
THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS RATHER DAMP.

MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER PATCHES OF RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG CUT OFF LOW DIGS FROM CANADA AND SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THERE IS THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO
DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF
AND INCH TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP AND
ONLY RESULT IN SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 020544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL ALLOW RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...A COOL AND RELATIVELY DAMP AIR MASS REMAINS
ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE IN THE
M30S TO M40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE VARIATION EXPECTED. AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND
LIGHT ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST...UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES BTWN 11Z-14Z WITH ANOTHER
BOUT OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL
LINGER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG WITH STRATUS
EVERYWHERE.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO ARRIVES AFTER SUNRISE TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER. THEN...THIS SHIELD WILL LIKELY RIDE ALONG THE I-88
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...SPREADING FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH LIGHTER PATCHES OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS THE
ACTUAL WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE
REGION.

EXPECT ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF RAIN TO FALL FROM ALBANY
NORTH...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE RAIN/DRIZZLE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL ONCE BUT PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER
THAN SUNDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS 45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN...50-55 MOST
VALLEY AREAS...55-60 SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVENING GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE REGION...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LIGHT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF REGION. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPR
LAYERS...AND GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AND WEAK LEVEL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY
AREAS INTO MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF REGION OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MODELS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TOWARD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD IS UNSETTLED.

WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ONE...POSSIBLY TWO CUTOFF LOWS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

THE PERIOD OPENS UP ONE CUT OFF LOW SITTING SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PA OR WV. CSTAR STUDIES HAVE INDICATED WHEN
CUTOFF LOW IS IN SUCH A POSITION...A SURFACE LOW WOULD BE PARKED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION
ZONE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION.

HOWEVER...SO FAR...IN THIS CASE...ALL LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INSIST THAT THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATED "NORMAL" AMOUNTS
OF PWATS OVER OUR REGION MIDWEEK.

CSTAR STUDIES WOULD DICTATE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS
AGAIN...NORMALLY SUCH A POSITION FOR A CUTOFF COULD SPELL LOTS OF
RAIN FOR OUR REGION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LOT OF DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE LOW KEEPING THINGS LESS WET.

THAT SAID...WE WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS IN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND
AS THIS CUTOFF LOW IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...LIKELY OFF THE DE OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO DROP SOUTH
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

THE TIMING OF RAIN AND EVEN ULTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWS 45-50
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40-45 WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 06Z TUESDAY.

A PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS...WITH RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY IN RAIN AND FOG
AND LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...AVERAGING BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.
THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS RATHER DAMP.

MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER PATCHES OF RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG CUT OFF LOW DIGS FROM CANADA AND SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THERE IS THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO
DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF
AND INCH TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP AND
ONLY RESULT IN SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 020530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
 A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL ALLOW RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...A COOL AND RELATIVELY DAMP AIR MASS REMAINS
ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE IN THE
M30S TO M40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE VARIATION EXPECTED. AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND
LIGHT ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST...UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES BTWN 11Z-14Z WITH ANOTHER
BOUT OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL
LINGER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG WITH STRATUS
EVERYWHERE.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO ARRIVES AFTER SUNRISE TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER. THEN...THIS SHIELD WILL LIKELY RIDE ALONG THE I-88
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...SPREADING FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH LIGHTER PATCHES OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS THE
ACTUAL WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE
REGION.

EXPECT ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF RAIN TO FALL FROM ALBANY
NORTH...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE RAIN/DRIZZLE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL ONCE BUT PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER
THAN SUNDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS 45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN...50-55 MOST
VALLEY AREAS...55-60 SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVENING GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE REGION...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LIGHT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF REGION. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPR
LAYERS...AND GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AND WEAK LEVEL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY
AREAS INTO MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF REGION OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MODELS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TOWARD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD IS UNSETTLED.

WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ONE...POSSIBLY TWO CUTOFF LOWS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

THE PERIOD OPENS UP ONE CUT OFF LOW SITTING SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PA OR WV. CSTAR STUDIES HAVE INDICATED WHEN
CUTOFF LOW IS IN SUCH A POSITION...A SURFACE LOW WOULD BE PARKED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION
ZONE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION.

HOWEVER...SO FAR...IN THIS CASE...ALL LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INSIST THAT THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATED "NORMAL" AMOUNTS
OF PWATS OVER OUR REGION MIDWEEK.

CSTAR STUDIES WOULD DICTATE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS
AGAIN...NORMALLY SUCH A POSITION FOR A CUTOFF COULD SPELL LOTS OF
RAIN FOR OUR REGION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LOT OF DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE LOW KEEPING THINGS LESS WET.

THAT SAID...WE WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS IN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND
AS THIS CUTOFF LOW IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...LIKELY OFF THE DE OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO DROP SOUTH
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

THE TIMING OF RAIN AND EVEN ULTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWS 45-50
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40-45 WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN HAS MOVED ON BY. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE THE CULPRITS.

THEN ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL WORK MAINLY FROM KALB NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY BRINGING MVFR TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY KALB NORTHWARD).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEARLY DUE
SOUTHERLY AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...AVERAGING
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY TO OUR EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS RATHER DAMP.

MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER PATCHES OF RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG CUT OFF LOW DIGS FROM CANADA AND SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THERE IS THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO
DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF
AND INCH TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP AND
ONLY RESULT IN SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/LFM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020333
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1133 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY THIS WEEK. A MORE
COMPLEX LOW WILL WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY WAS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD LATE
THIS EVENING WHILE ANOTHER WEAK LOW RIDES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. COOL MOIST FLOW IN PLACE WILL MAINTAIN
OVERCAST/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG...WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEARLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
LEAD TO A PD OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POP. MID LEVELS SHOULD DRY OUT MID TO LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT BKN/OVC LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN.

ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...
CONDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED...AND CAN EXPECT SOME LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.

UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDS ON TAP WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN TRACK TO THE SE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN MEANDER HERE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THIS
SCENARIO AND THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. HOWEVER...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITY OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SHOWERS AT ANY TIME.

BEFORE THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS...A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND ON TUESDAY ACTS A FOCUS FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND RIDE ALONG IT. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 115-125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TUESDAY MORNING. THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RAIN EXISTS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTHERN TIER FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE
BOUNDARY/WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SO
DID NOT WANT TO RAISE POPS ANY FURTHER THAN LIKELY. THE UPPER JET
CORE SHIFTS TO THE NE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH DECREASES
LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HAVE GENERALLY KEPT CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PREDICTABILITY WITH ANY SMALLER SCALE FEATURE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF IS RATHER LOW. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS
AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THEM AT THIS JUNCTURE IS
RATHER DIFFICULT AND SHOWS HIGH VARIABILITY RUN TO RUN IN THE
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ANY PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE CUTOFF AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE
COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
SUITE...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE SINCE THIS IS STILL SEVEN DAYS OUT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON MON.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY ENE 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS. CONDS MAY IMPROVE A
LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK MON BUT STILL REMAIN IFR IN LIGHT RAIN.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDS AND ALSO WINDS FOR MOST TERMINALS
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDS SHOULD REDEVELOP AT NIGHT
AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW APPROACHES. EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CONDS
UNCERTAIN. MVFR CONDS MAY RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS ARE RUNNING 5-6 FT OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO
25 KT. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN WITH A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDS
MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEAK WITH
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SEAS MAY PUSH OVER 5 FT LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/4-1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUE.
NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL CONTINUE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING...LOCATION...AND AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MPS/DS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...GOODMAN/MPS/DS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MPS/DS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020333
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1133 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY THIS WEEK. A MORE
COMPLEX LOW WILL WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY WAS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD LATE
THIS EVENING WHILE ANOTHER WEAK LOW RIDES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. COOL MOIST FLOW IN PLACE WILL MAINTAIN
OVERCAST/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG...WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEARLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
LEAD TO A PD OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POP. MID LEVELS SHOULD DRY OUT MID TO LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT BKN/OVC LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN.

ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...
CONDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED...AND CAN EXPECT SOME LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.

UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDS ON TAP WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN TRACK TO THE SE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN MEANDER HERE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THIS
SCENARIO AND THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. HOWEVER...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITY OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SHOWERS AT ANY TIME.

BEFORE THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS...A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND ON TUESDAY ACTS A FOCUS FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND RIDE ALONG IT. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 115-125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TUESDAY MORNING. THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RAIN EXISTS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTHERN TIER FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE
BOUNDARY/WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SO
DID NOT WANT TO RAISE POPS ANY FURTHER THAN LIKELY. THE UPPER JET
CORE SHIFTS TO THE NE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH DECREASES
LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HAVE GENERALLY KEPT CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PREDICTABILITY WITH ANY SMALLER SCALE FEATURE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF IS RATHER LOW. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS
AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THEM AT THIS JUNCTURE IS
RATHER DIFFICULT AND SHOWS HIGH VARIABILITY RUN TO RUN IN THE
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ANY PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE CUTOFF AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE
COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
SUITE...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE SINCE THIS IS STILL SEVEN DAYS OUT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON MON.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY ENE 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS. CONDS MAY IMPROVE A
LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK MON BUT STILL REMAIN IFR IN LIGHT RAIN.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDS AND ALSO WINDS FOR MOST TERMINALS
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDS SHOULD REDEVELOP AT NIGHT
AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW APPROACHES. EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CONDS
UNCERTAIN. MVFR CONDS MAY RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS ARE RUNNING 5-6 FT OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO
25 KT. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN WITH A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDS
MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEAK WITH
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SEAS MAY PUSH OVER 5 FT LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/4-1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUE.
NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL CONTINUE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING...LOCATION...AND AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MPS/DS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...GOODMAN/MPS/DS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MPS/DS




000
FXUS61 KALY 020244
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...OUR AREA WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF
DISTURBANCE...ONE TO OUR EAST...AND ANOTHER ONE WORKING TOWARD OUR
REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

STILL...RADARS INDICATED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. WHAT IT WAS NOT REVEALING WERE THE LIKELY
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE.

WE EXPECT A "COOL DOWN" OF STRATUS OVERNIGHT...MEANING THEY SHOULD
LOWER AND ALLOW FOR EVEN MORE DRIZZLE. SO...WHILE WE LOWERED THE
POPS TO 20 PERCENT...WE INCLUDED AREAS OF DRIZZLE NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...PATCHY DRIZZLE FURTHER SOUTH ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG
EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S REGIONWIDE...WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. WE EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE READINGS
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS DROPPING 1-3 DEGREES.

A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 MPH OR LESS.

WE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO ARRIVE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THEN...THIS SHIELD WILL LIKELY RIDE
ALONG THE I-88 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...SPREADING FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AREAS TO THE SOUTH
WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH LIGHTER PATCHES OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS THE
ACTUAL WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE
REGION.

EXPECT ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF RAIN TO FALL FROM ALBANY
NORTH...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE RAIN (OR DRIZZLE) TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL FALL SHORT OF NORMAL ONCE BUT PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES
HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS 45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN...50-55
MOST VALLEY AREAS...55-60 SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVENING GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE REGION...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LIGHT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF REGION. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPR
LAYERS...AND GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AND WEAK LEVEL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY
AREAS INTO MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF REGION OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MODELS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TOWARD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD IS UNSETTLED.

WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ONE...POSSIBLY TWO CUTOFF LOWS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

THE PERIOD OPENS UP ONE CUT OFF LOW SITTING SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PA OR WV. CSTAR STUDIES HAVE INDICATED WHEN
CUTOFF LOW IS IN SUCH A POSITION...A SURFACE LOW WOULD BE PARKED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION
ZONE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION.

HOWEVER...SO FAR...IN THIS CASE...ALL LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INSIST THAT THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATED "NORMAL" AMOUNTS
OF PWATS OVER OUR REGION MIDWEEK.

CSTAR STUDIES WOULD DICTATE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS
AGAIN...NORMALLY SUCH A POSITION FOR A CUTOFF COULD SPELL LOTS OF
RAIN FOR OUR REGION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LOT OF DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE LOW KEEPING THINGS LESS WET.

THAT SAID...WE WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS IN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND
AS THIS CUTOFF LOW IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...LIKELY OFF THE DE OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO DROP SOUTH
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

THE TIMING OF RAIN AND EVEN ULTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWS 45-50
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40-45 WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN HAS MOVED ON BY. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE THE CULPRITS.

THEN ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL WORK MAINLY FROM KALB NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY BRINGING MVFR TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY KALB NORTHWARD).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEARLY DUE
SOUTHERLY AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...AVERAGING
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY TO OUR EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
SHRA.

.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS RATHER DAMP.

MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER PATCHES OF RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG CUT OFF LOW DIGS FROM CANADA AND SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THERE IS THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO
DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF
AND INCH TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP AND
ONLY RESULT IN SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/LFM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBUF 020243
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1043 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION...WILL
CONTINUE THE COVERAGE OF AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DENSE FOG. EXPECT
SHOWERS SLATED FOR LATER TONIGHT TO REDUCE THE FOG.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY INTO THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT RETREATS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE OR
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
INITIALLY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE UNTIL THE SURFACE REFLECTION
TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT. NEARLY ALL 12Z GUIDANCE ALONG WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY RAMP UP PROBABILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE MONDAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY 00Z TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SECOND ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL HAVE SLID EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...WITH
THE TRAILING EDGE OF ITS RAIN SHIELD ALREADY HAVING RECEDED INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK. THUS...EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE PRECIPITATION-FREE
BY THE TIME WE REACH SUNSET...THOUGH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE PLAINS.

AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WHILE YET
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND
DELMARVA REGION. THIS LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD THUS REMAIN ON A FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TRACK TO KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD CONFINED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST... THUS THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH GRADUAL
DRYING AND SLOWLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING TO DRIVE THE
LIMITED CLEARING FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER INLAND...THOUGH
SKIES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

ON TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH
THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH SLIDING EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN...
OUR REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPENSATING ZONE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED
FAIR/DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AS
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LINGERING LOWER CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE... 850 MB TEMPS OF +2C TO
+4C SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH
IS DEAD-ON AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE LINGERING SURFACE WAVE/FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST... AND THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH A NARROWING COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/RELATIVELY DRIER AIR REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. OVERALL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND PAST
EXPERIENCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE ALSO
CASTING CONSIDERABLE DOUBT UPON THE PRECIP BEING SPIT OUT BY THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS PARTICULARLY
OVERDONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PULL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS FOR
TEMPS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

AFTER THAT...THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
DECIDED TURN TO MORE UNSETTLED AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WEATHER AS
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION... AND BECOMES THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE GRADUAL
MERGING OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COASTAL SURFACE WAVES INTO A
SINGLE...BUT ALSO RATHER BROAD AND DIFFUSE LOW THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

AS THE ABOVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...THE COMBINATION OF THE MERGING
SURFACE FEATURES...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND SLOWLY COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN
PINNING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES
DRIVING ANY SUCH SHOWERS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IN THIS KIND OF
PATTERN...FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH
BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE SOME RAIN FREE PERIODS.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS STILL IN THE +2C TO +4C
RANGE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOW COOLING OF OUR
AIRMASS RESULTS IN READINGS PULLING BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
FOR THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES...THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT TWIN...DEEP CLOSED LOWS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR BOTH COASTS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS GENERAL PATTERN...THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
IN THE THINKING FOR THE POSITION OF THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW BY THE
WEEKEND.

ALL OF THE MODELS ARE NOW PUSHING THE STACKED CLOSED LOW FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE CLOSED LOW BEING SHUNTED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN THE CLOSED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST...AND EVENTUALLY A DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER LAKES. THE GENERAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL OFFER MORE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
AND CERTAINLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES. INSTEAD OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
MERCURY READINGS...WE SHOULD CLIMB TO ABV NORMAL LEVELS FOR BOTH
DAYS OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAX`S RANGING FROM 65 TO AS HIGH AS 70 (SRN
TIER AND GEN VALLEYS).

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS FOR  MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LIFR
WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS WESTERN NY TO THE
FINGER LAKES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 10Z AS STEADY
RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND THIN THE FOG OUT. LOW MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF AN ADVANCING
SURFACE WARM FRONT ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIT FOR A PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING
ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVE HEIGHT AROUND 3 FEET.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...TMA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 020243
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1043 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION...WILL
CONTINUE THE COVERAGE OF AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DENSE FOG. EXPECT
SHOWERS SLATED FOR LATER TONIGHT TO REDUCE THE FOG.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY INTO THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT RETREATS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE OR
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
INITIALLY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE UNTIL THE SURFACE REFLECTION
TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT. NEARLY ALL 12Z GUIDANCE ALONG WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY RAMP UP PROBABILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE MONDAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY 00Z TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SECOND ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL HAVE SLID EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...WITH
THE TRAILING EDGE OF ITS RAIN SHIELD ALREADY HAVING RECEDED INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK. THUS...EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE PRECIPITATION-FREE
BY THE TIME WE REACH SUNSET...THOUGH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE PLAINS.

AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WHILE YET
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND
DELMARVA REGION. THIS LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD THUS REMAIN ON A FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TRACK TO KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD CONFINED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST... THUS THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH GRADUAL
DRYING AND SLOWLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING TO DRIVE THE
LIMITED CLEARING FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER INLAND...THOUGH
SKIES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

ON TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH
THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH SLIDING EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN...
OUR REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPENSATING ZONE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED
FAIR/DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AS
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LINGERING LOWER CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE... 850 MB TEMPS OF +2C TO
+4C SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH
IS DEAD-ON AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE LINGERING SURFACE WAVE/FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST... AND THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH A NARROWING COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/RELATIVELY DRIER AIR REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. OVERALL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND PAST
EXPERIENCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE ALSO
CASTING CONSIDERABLE DOUBT UPON THE PRECIP BEING SPIT OUT BY THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS PARTICULARLY
OVERDONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PULL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS FOR
TEMPS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

AFTER THAT...THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
DECIDED TURN TO MORE UNSETTLED AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WEATHER AS
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION... AND BECOMES THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE GRADUAL
MERGING OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COASTAL SURFACE WAVES INTO A
SINGLE...BUT ALSO RATHER BROAD AND DIFFUSE LOW THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

AS THE ABOVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...THE COMBINATION OF THE MERGING
SURFACE FEATURES...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND SLOWLY COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN
PINNING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES
DRIVING ANY SUCH SHOWERS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IN THIS KIND OF
PATTERN...FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH
BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE SOME RAIN FREE PERIODS.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS STILL IN THE +2C TO +4C
RANGE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOW COOLING OF OUR
AIRMASS RESULTS IN READINGS PULLING BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
FOR THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES...THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT TWIN...DEEP CLOSED LOWS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR BOTH COASTS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS GENERAL PATTERN...THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
IN THE THINKING FOR THE POSITION OF THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW BY THE
WEEKEND.

ALL OF THE MODELS ARE NOW PUSHING THE STACKED CLOSED LOW FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE CLOSED LOW BEING SHUNTED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN THE CLOSED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST...AND EVENTUALLY A DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER LAKES. THE GENERAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL OFFER MORE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
AND CERTAINLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES. INSTEAD OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
MERCURY READINGS...WE SHOULD CLIMB TO ABV NORMAL LEVELS FOR BOTH
DAYS OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAX`S RANGING FROM 65 TO AS HIGH AS 70 (SRN
TIER AND GEN VALLEYS).

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS FOR  MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LIFR
WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS WESTERN NY TO THE
FINGER LAKES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 10Z AS STEADY
RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND THIN THE FOG OUT. LOW MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF AN ADVANCING
SURFACE WARM FRONT ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIT FOR A PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING
ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVE HEIGHT AROUND 3 FEET.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...TMA




000
FXUS61 KALY 020242
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...OUR AREA WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF
DISTURBANCE...ONE TO OUR EAST...AND ANOTHER ONE WORKING TOWARD OUR
REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

STILL...RADARS INDICATED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. WHAT IT WAS NOT REVEALING WERE THE LIKELY
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE.

WE EXPECT A "COOL DOWN" OF STRATUS OVERNIGHT...MEANING THEY SHOULD
LOWER AND ALLOW FOR EVEN MORE DRIZZLE. SO...WHILE WE LOWERED THE
POPS TO 20 PERCENT...WE INCLUDED AREAS OF DRIZZLE NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...PATCHY DRIZZLE FURTHER SOUTH ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG
EVERYWHERE.

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S REGIONWIDE...WITH
THE COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. WE EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE READINGS
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS DROPPING 1-3 DEGREES.

A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 MPH OR LESS.

WE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO ARRIVE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THEN...THIS SHIELD WILL LIKELY RIDE
ALONG THE I-88 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...SPREADING FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AREAS TO THE SOUTH
WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH LIGHTER PATCHES OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS THE
ACTUAL WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE
REGION.

EXPECT ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF RAIN TO FALL FROM ALBANY
NORTH...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE RAIN (OR DRIZZLE) TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL FALL SHORT OF NORMAL ONCE BUT PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES
HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS 45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN...50-55
MOST VALLEY AREAS...55-60 SOUTH OF ALBANY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVENING GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE REGION...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LIGHT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF REGION. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPR
LAYERS...AND GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AND WEAK LEVEL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY
AREAS INTO MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF REGION OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MODELS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TOWARD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD IS UNSETTLED.

WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ONE...POSSIBLY TWO CUTOFF LOWS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

THE PERIOD OPENS UP ONE CUT OFF LOW SITTING SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PA OR WV. CSTAR STUDIES HAVE INDICATED WHEN
CUTOFF LOW IS IN SUCH A POSITION...A SURFACE LOW WOULD BE PARKED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION
ZONE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION.

HOWEVER...SO FAR...IN THIS CASE...ALL LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INSIST THAT THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATED "NORMAL" AMOUNTS
OF PWATS OVER OUR REGION MIDWEEK.

CSTAR STUDIES WOULD DICTATE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS
AGAIN...NORMALLY SUCH A POSITION FOR A CUTOFF COULD SPELL LOTS OF
RAIN FOR OUR REGION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LOT OF DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE LOW KEEPING THINGS LESS WET.

THAT SAID...WE WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS IN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND
AS THIS CUTOFF LOW IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...LIKELY OFF THE DE OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO DROP SOUTH
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

THE TIMING OF RAIN AND EVEN ULTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWS 45-50
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40-45 WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN HAS MOVED ON BY. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE THE CULPRITS.

THEN ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL WORK MAINLY FROM KALB NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY BRINGING MVFR TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY KALB NORTHWARD).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEARLY DUE
SOUTHERLY AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...AVERAGING
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY TO OUR EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...DZ.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS RATHER DAMP.

MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER PATCHES OF RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG CUT OFF LOW DIGS FROM CANADA AND SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THERE IS THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO
DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF
AND INCH TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP AND
ONLY RESULT IN SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020233
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1033 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE ENDING BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN
TOMORROW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1029 PM EDT SUNDAY...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROF CONTINUES OUR NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CWA THIS EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION LIKELY TO
CAT POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO CHC SOUTH. EXPECTING
THIS PRECIP TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER 06Z...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ARRIVES ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
OHIO VALLEY SYSTEM. THIS WILL REDEVELOP RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
REGION BETWEEN 15Z-21Z MONDAY...WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN REGIONS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY
OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP. ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST.

WATER VAPOR THIS EVENING SHOWS FIRST WEAK 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED
MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SECTION...WITH
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO MOVING TOWARD
OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA. THIS ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BEFORE DRIER AIR ALOFT
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS ZONES ABOVE 1500 FEET...WITH DEVELOPING 925MB JET OF 15
TO 20 KNOTS. LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG...GIVEN <10 KNOTS
THROUGH 850MB AT KMSS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CAT POPS
NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE SOUTH WITH HIGHEST QPF VALUES AROUND
0.10 CONFINED TO THE COUNTIES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OTHER
ADJUSTMENT WAS TO INCREASE LOWS BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES BASED ON
EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP AND SURFACE DWPTS ALREADY IN THE L/M 40S.
EXPECTING VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT. REST OF FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW A
STRONGER LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE MENTIONED
CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THE MORNING TAPERING OFF TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS TONIGHT AND THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS THEN EXIT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING WEAK RIDGING DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
WITH OCCASIONAL PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER TIME,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 35
TO 45 RANGE AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY FROM 57 TO 63 OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY BY THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEAK AS DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SETTLES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH, LIKELY CUTTING
OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD. THESE LATEST TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS/PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR ON THE FRONT END OF THE TROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BEYOND WHICH DEFAULT RIDGING LOOKS TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS OUR REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CLOSED
SYSTEM. AS SUCH I`VE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SHOWERS
(40-60 PCT) IN THE EARLIER TIME FRAMES, THEN TRENDED MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH LOWER POPS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME WILL
TELL HOW ALL THIS EVOLVES, AND IT`S ALWAYS A BIT TRICKY WHEN
DEALING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOWS. PER LATEST BLENDED
925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES FROM THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS EACH DAY
MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. IF
MORE SUN IS REALIZED BY LATER IN THE WEEK SOME LOWER 70S WILL BE
POSSIBLE. YES FOLKS, SPRING HAS FINALLY ARRIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR INTERVALS
FROM VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE, MIST AND STRATUS. LOW CEILINGS WILL
OBSCURE MTNS.

WARM FRONTAL RAIN IS LIFTING NORTHWARD, WITH ONLY A COUPLE MORE
HOURS OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER 03Z,
UNSATURATED CONDITIONS ALOFT SUPPORT AREAS OF DRIZZLE
(INTERSPERSED WITH MIST) LASTING THROUGH LATE MORNING MONDAY
(14-16Z) MONDAY. IT`S DURING THIS 03-14Z TIME PERIOD WHERE
CEILINGS/VIS MAY DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE. I`VE TRIED TO HINT AT
THIS WITH SCT IFR CEILINGS IN PREVAILING MVFR DECK. WINDS
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 4-8 KTS TRENDING LIGHT/VARIABLE.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS NEXT SHOT OF STEADIER LIGHT
RAIN AFTER 14Z LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MVFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH 3-5 SM RAIN. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST
UNDER 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
00Z TUE - 12Z TUE: MVFR IN RAIN. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW
CEILINGS.
TUE - WED: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON.
THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.
FRI: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020054
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
854 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY THIS WEEK. A MORE
COMPLEX LOW WILL WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 10 KFT CONTINUES TO DRY OUT THIS EVENING WITH
DEEPEST SATURATION OCCURRING IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH A COOL...MOIST NE FLOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS ALSO SHOW STEADIEST RAIN PUSHING TO THE EAST
WITH MOST OBSERVATIONS OF JUST LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW SPOTS WITH
SOME DRIZZLE. EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. POPS DECREASE TO JUST CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA AROUND 9PM.

LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH LOW LEVELS SATURATED.

WARM FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK
MONDAY...AND STEADY RAIN SHOULD BECOME LIKELY OVER NW ORANGE
COUNTY AT THAT TIME.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS LOW PRES OVER WESTERN NY APPROACHES...A SECONDARY LOW LOOKS TO
FORM OFF THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PASS SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. MEANWHILE...THE PARENT LOW WILL PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA. THINK BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER NW ZONES MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP FOR THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS...BUT BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL EITHER BE TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.

ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING...CONDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED...AND CAN EXPECT SOME
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.

UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDS ON TAP WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN TRACK TO THE SE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN MEANDER HERE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THIS
SCENARIO AND THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. HOWEVER...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITY OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SHOWERS AT ANY TIME.

BEFORE THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS...A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND ON TUESDAY ACTS A FOCUS FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND RIDE ALONG IT. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 115-125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TUESDAY MORNING. THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RAIN EXISTS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTHERN TIER FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE
BOUNDARY/WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SO
DID NOT WANT TO RAISE POPS ANY FURTHER THAN LIKELY. THE UPPER JET
CORE SHIFTS TO THE NE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH DECREASES
LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HAVE GENERALLY KEPT CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PREDICTABILITY WITH ANY SMALLER SCALE FEATURE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF IS RATHER LOW. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS
AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THEM AT THIS JUNCTURE IS
RATHER DIFFICULT AND SHOWS HIGH VARIABILITY RUN TO RUN IN THE
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ANY PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE CUTOFF AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE
COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
SUITE...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE SINCE THIS IS STILL SEVEN DAYS OUT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY ENE 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS. CONDS MAY IMPROVE A
LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK MON BUT STILL REMAIN IFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR CONDS AND ALSO WINDS FOR MOST TERMINALS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
MON AS ONE LOW DEPARTS AND ANOTHER APPROACHES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FCST PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDS SHOULD REDEVELOP AT NIGHT
AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW APPROACHES. EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CONDS
UNCERTAIN. MVFR CONDS MAY RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON COASTAL WATERS REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING.

SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN...AND A FEW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AND
THEN SEAS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CRITERIA. WITH A WEAK GRADIENT OVER
THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEAK WITH
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SEAS MAY PUSH OVER 5 FT LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/4-1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS FAR NW
ZONES. 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL CONTINUE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING...LOCATION...AND AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 020054
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
854 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY THIS WEEK. A MORE
COMPLEX LOW WILL WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 10 KFT CONTINUES TO DRY OUT THIS EVENING WITH
DEEPEST SATURATION OCCURRING IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH A COOL...MOIST NE FLOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS ALSO SHOW STEADIEST RAIN PUSHING TO THE EAST
WITH MOST OBSERVATIONS OF JUST LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW SPOTS WITH
SOME DRIZZLE. EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. POPS DECREASE TO JUST CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA AROUND 9PM.

LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH LOW LEVELS SATURATED.

WARM FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK
MONDAY...AND STEADY RAIN SHOULD BECOME LIKELY OVER NW ORANGE
COUNTY AT THAT TIME.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS LOW PRES OVER WESTERN NY APPROACHES...A SECONDARY LOW LOOKS TO
FORM OFF THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PASS SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. MEANWHILE...THE PARENT LOW WILL PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA. THINK BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER NW ZONES MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP FOR THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS...BUT BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL EITHER BE TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.

ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING...CONDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED...AND CAN EXPECT SOME
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.

UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDS ON TAP WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN TRACK TO THE SE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN MEANDER HERE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THIS
SCENARIO AND THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. HOWEVER...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITY OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SHOWERS AT ANY TIME.

BEFORE THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS...A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND ON TUESDAY ACTS A FOCUS FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND RIDE ALONG IT. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 115-125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TUESDAY MORNING. THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RAIN EXISTS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTHERN TIER FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE
BOUNDARY/WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SO
DID NOT WANT TO RAISE POPS ANY FURTHER THAN LIKELY. THE UPPER JET
CORE SHIFTS TO THE NE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH DECREASES
LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HAVE GENERALLY KEPT CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PREDICTABILITY WITH ANY SMALLER SCALE FEATURE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF IS RATHER LOW. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS
AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THEM AT THIS JUNCTURE IS
RATHER DIFFICULT AND SHOWS HIGH VARIABILITY RUN TO RUN IN THE
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ANY PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE CUTOFF AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE
COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
SUITE...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE SINCE THIS IS STILL SEVEN DAYS OUT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY ENE 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS. CONDS MAY IMPROVE A
LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK MON BUT STILL REMAIN IFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR CONDS AND ALSO WINDS FOR MOST TERMINALS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
MON AS ONE LOW DEPARTS AND ANOTHER APPROACHES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FCST PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDS SHOULD REDEVELOP AT NIGHT
AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW APPROACHES. EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CONDS
UNCERTAIN. MVFR CONDS MAY RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON COASTAL WATERS REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING.

SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN...AND A FEW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AND
THEN SEAS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CRITERIA. WITH A WEAK GRADIENT OVER
THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEAK WITH
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SEAS MAY PUSH OVER 5 FT LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/4-1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS FAR NW
ZONES. 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL CONTINUE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING...LOCATION...AND AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBUF 020032
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
832 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL HAVE AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DENSE FOG. EXPECT SHOWERS
SLATED FOR LATER TONIGHT TO REDUCE THE FOG.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY INTO THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT RETREATS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE OR
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
INITIALLY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE UNTIL THE SURFACE REFLECTION
TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT. NEARLY ALL 12Z GUIDANCE ALONG WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY RAMP UP PROBABILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE MONDAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY 00Z TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SECOND ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL HAVE SLID EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...WITH
THE TRAILING EDGE OF ITS RAIN SHIELD ALREADY HAVING RECEDED INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK. THUS...EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE PRECIPITATION-FREE
BY THE TIME WE REACH SUNSET...THOUGH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE PLAINS.

AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WHILE YET
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND
DELMARVA REGION. THIS LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD THUS REMAIN ON A FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TRACK TO KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD CONFINED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST... THUS THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH GRADUAL
DRYING AND SLOWLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING TO DRIVE THE
LIMITED CLEARING FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER INLAND...THOUGH
SKIES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

ON TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH
THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH SLIDING EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN...
OUR REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPENSATING ZONE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED
FAIR/DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AS
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LINGERING LOWER CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE... 850 MB TEMPS OF +2C TO
+4C SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH
IS DEAD-ON AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE LINGERING SURFACE WAVE/FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST... AND THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH A NARROWING COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/RELATIVELY DRIER AIR REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. OVERALL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND PAST
EXPERIENCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE ALSO
CASTING CONSIDERABLE DOUBT UPON THE PRECIP BEING SPIT OUT BY THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS PARTICULARLY
OVERDONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PULL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS FOR
TEMPS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

AFTER THAT...THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
DECIDED TURN TO MORE UNSETTLED AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WEATHER AS
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION... AND BECOMES THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE GRADUAL
MERGING OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COASTAL SURFACE WAVES INTO A
SINGLE...BUT ALSO RATHER BROAD AND DIFFUSE LOW THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

AS THE ABOVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...THE COMBINATION OF THE MERGING
SURFACE FEATURES...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND SLOWLY COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN
PINNING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES
DRIVING ANY SUCH SHOWERS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IN THIS KIND OF
PATTERN...FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH
BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE SOME RAIN FREE PERIODS.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS STILL IN THE +2C TO +4C
RANGE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOW COOLING OF OUR
AIRMASS RESULTS IN READINGS PULLING BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
FOR THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES...THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT TWIN...DEEP CLOSED LOWS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR BOTH COASTS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS GENERAL PATTERN...THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
IN THE THINKING FOR THE POSITION OF THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW BY THE
WEEKEND.

ALL OF THE MODELS ARE NOW PUSHING THE STACKED CLOSED LOW FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE CLOSED LOW BEING SHUNTED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN THE CLOSED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST...AND EVENTUALLY A DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER LAKES. THE GENERAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL OFFER MORE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
AND CERTAINLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES. INSTEAD OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
MERCURY READINGS...WE SHOULD CLIMB TO ABV NORMAL LEVELS FOR BOTH
DAYS OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAX`S RANGING FROM 65 TO AS HIGH AS 70 (SRN
TIER AND GEN VALLEYS).

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS FOR  MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LIFR
WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS WESTERN NY TO THE
FINGER LAKES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 10Z AS STEADY
RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND THIN THE FOG OUT. LOW MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF AN ADVANCING
SURFACE WARM FRONT ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIT FOR A PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING
ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVE HEIGHT AROUND 3 FEET.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...TMA




000
FXUS61 KALY 020002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
758 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 758 PM EDT...MOST OF THE STEADIER RAIN HAS SLIPPED TO OUR EAST
AS ONE SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED ON BY. DESPITE THE BREAK IN STEADY RAIN
THERE WERE PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
REMAINING ACROSS ALL OF OUR REGION.

WE EXPECT THIS TREND FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT TIME WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES (HOLDING IN THE 40S). LOOK FOR NUISANCE PATCHY
DRIZZLE...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND EVEN SOME FOG MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS.

WE DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN NOT RULE
OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND
NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA.

AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG A QUASI STATIONARY
FRONT...ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD AREAS MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH...WHERE ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL BE MORE LIMITED MORE LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS NEXT SHIELD OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE EXIT TO OUR EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
THROUGH SOUTHERN GREENS...50-55 MOST OTHER AREAS...55 TO PERHAPS 60
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE A FEW BREAKS OF LATE DAY SUNSHINE ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVENING GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE REGION...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LIGHT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF REGION. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPR
LAYERS...AND GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AND WEAK LEVEL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY
AREAS INTO MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF REGION OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MODELS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TOWARD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD IS UNSETTLED.

WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ONE...POSSIBLY TWO CUTOFF LOWS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

THE PERIOD OPENS UP ONE CUT OFF LOW SITTING SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PA OR WV. CSTAR STUDIES HAVE INDICATED WHEN
CUTOFF LOW IS IN SUCH A POSITION...A SURFACE LOW WOULD BE PARKED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION
ZONE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION.

HOWEVER...SO FAR...IN THIS CASE...ALL LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INSIST THAT THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATED "NORMAL" AMOUNTS
OF PWATS OVER OUR REGION MIDWEEK.

CSTAR STUDIES WOULD DICTATE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS
AGAIN...NORMALLY SUCH A POSITION FOR A CUTOFF COULD SPELL LOTS OF
RAIN FOR OUR REGION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LOT OF DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE LOW KEEPING THINGS LESS WET.

THAT SAID...WE WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS IN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND
AS THIS CUTOFF LOW IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...LIKELY OFF THE DE OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO DROP SOUTH
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

THE TIMING OF RAIN AND EVEN ULTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWS 45-50
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40-45 WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN HAS MOVED ON BY. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE THE CULPRITS.

THEN ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL WORK MAINLY FROM KALB NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY BRINGING MVFR TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY KALB NORTHWARD).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE
SOUTHERLY AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...AVERAGING
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...DZ.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS
THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO
DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF
AND INCH TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP AND
ONLY RESULT IN SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 020002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
758 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 758 PM EDT...MOST OF THE STEADIER RAIN HAS SLIPPED TO OUR EAST
AS ONE SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED ON BY. DESPITE THE BREAK IN STEADY RAIN
THERE WERE PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
REMAINING ACROSS ALL OF OUR REGION.

WE EXPECT THIS TREND FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT TIME WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES (HOLDING IN THE 40S). LOOK FOR NUISANCE PATCHY
DRIZZLE...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND EVEN SOME FOG MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS.

WE DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN NOT RULE
OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND
NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA.

AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG A QUASI STATIONARY
FRONT...ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD AREAS MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH...WHERE ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL BE MORE LIMITED MORE LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS NEXT SHIELD OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE EXIT TO OUR EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
THROUGH SOUTHERN GREENS...50-55 MOST OTHER AREAS...55 TO PERHAPS 60
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE A FEW BREAKS OF LATE DAY SUNSHINE ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVENING GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE REGION...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LIGHT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF REGION. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPR
LAYERS...AND GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AND WEAK LEVEL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY
AREAS INTO MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF REGION OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MODELS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TOWARD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD IS UNSETTLED.

WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ONE...POSSIBLY TWO CUTOFF LOWS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

THE PERIOD OPENS UP ONE CUT OFF LOW SITTING SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PA OR WV. CSTAR STUDIES HAVE INDICATED WHEN
CUTOFF LOW IS IN SUCH A POSITION...A SURFACE LOW WOULD BE PARKED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION
ZONE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION.

HOWEVER...SO FAR...IN THIS CASE...ALL LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INSIST THAT THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATED "NORMAL" AMOUNTS
OF PWATS OVER OUR REGION MIDWEEK.

CSTAR STUDIES WOULD DICTATE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS
AGAIN...NORMALLY SUCH A POSITION FOR A CUTOFF COULD SPELL LOTS OF
RAIN FOR OUR REGION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LOT OF DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE LOW KEEPING THINGS LESS WET.

THAT SAID...WE WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS IN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND
AS THIS CUTOFF LOW IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...LIKELY OFF THE DE OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO DROP SOUTH
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

THE TIMING OF RAIN AND EVEN ULTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWS 45-50
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40-45 WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN HAS MOVED ON BY. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE THE CULPRITS.

THEN ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL WORK MAINLY FROM KALB NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY BRINGING MVFR TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY KALB NORTHWARD).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE
SOUTHERLY AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...AVERAGING
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...DZ.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS
THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO
DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF
AND INCH TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP AND
ONLY RESULT IN SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBGM 012351
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
751 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF WEAK STORMS ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY PROGGED TO TRACK NE
TOWARD PA BY MORNING. FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT, NOT EXPECTING
MUCH...JUST A FEW LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE.
LATE TONIGHT, TOWARD 12Z, NEXT BATCH OF HEAVIER AND STEADIER RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH S/W ALOFT
AND APPROACHING SFC LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BUDGE TOO MUCH
TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND WAA PATTERN WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
305 PM UPDATE...
A POTENT WAVE WILL PASS OVER NY/PA EARLY MONDAY, BRINGING A QUICK SHOT
OF MODERATE RAINS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF OUR
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OUR
VICINITY. THOUGH RAINS WILL TAPER OFF, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER NY AND PA FROM TIME TO TIME.

A MEAN TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIPPING OUT OF ONTARIO ACROSS NY/PA EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, AS COOLER AIR
KEEPS TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN RESPECT TO THE
XPCTD CLSD LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE
OH VLY THU DVLPS INTO A CLSD LOW WHICH DRFTS TO THE NC CST BY FRI
MRNG. THIS WILL KEEP SHWRS AND COOL AIR OVER THE AREA THRU THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY SAT MRNG...UPR LOW AS DRFTD INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC...PERHAPS AS A RESPONSE TO THE WV PUSHING INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BIT OF WEAK RDGG OVER THE FCST AREA AND
IMPROVING WX. WITH THE CORE OF THE UPR LOW MVG SOUTH OF THE
AREA...HAVE LWRD POPS A BIT AND INCRSD TEMPS AS THE COOLER AIR SHD
NOT BE OVHD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RATHER STAGNANT...COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
CONTINUE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR IFR WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING IN RAIN/DRIZZLE
AND FOG. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PASSAGE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE.

WINDS ESE-SSW 5-10 KTS THIS EVENING BECOMING LGT/VRBL. WINDS
BECOMING NW-N 5-10 KTS AFT 18Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...MVFR DUE TO CLD DECKS.

TUE...VFR.

WED-THU...SHWRS MAY BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

FRI...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...JAB




000
FXUS61 KBGM 012351
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
751 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF WEAK STORMS ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY PROGGED TO TRACK NE
TOWARD PA BY MORNING. FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT, NOT EXPECTING
MUCH...JUST A FEW LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE.
LATE TONIGHT, TOWARD 12Z, NEXT BATCH OF HEAVIER AND STEADIER RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH S/W ALOFT
AND APPROACHING SFC LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BUDGE TOO MUCH
TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND WAA PATTERN WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
305 PM UPDATE...
A POTENT WAVE WILL PASS OVER NY/PA EARLY MONDAY, BRINGING A QUICK SHOT
OF MODERATE RAINS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF OUR
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OUR
VICINITY. THOUGH RAINS WILL TAPER OFF, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER NY AND PA FROM TIME TO TIME.

A MEAN TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIPPING OUT OF ONTARIO ACROSS NY/PA EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, AS COOLER AIR
KEEPS TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN RESPECT TO THE
XPCTD CLSD LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE
OH VLY THU DVLPS INTO A CLSD LOW WHICH DRFTS TO THE NC CST BY FRI
MRNG. THIS WILL KEEP SHWRS AND COOL AIR OVER THE AREA THRU THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY SAT MRNG...UPR LOW AS DRFTD INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC...PERHAPS AS A RESPONSE TO THE WV PUSHING INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BIT OF WEAK RDGG OVER THE FCST AREA AND
IMPROVING WX. WITH THE CORE OF THE UPR LOW MVG SOUTH OF THE
AREA...HAVE LWRD POPS A BIT AND INCRSD TEMPS AS THE COOLER AIR SHD
NOT BE OVHD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RATHER STAGNANT...COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
CONTINUE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR IFR WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING IN RAIN/DRIZZLE
AND FOG. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PASSAGE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE.

WINDS ESE-SSW 5-10 KTS THIS EVENING BECOMING LGT/VRBL. WINDS
BECOMING NW-N 5-10 KTS AFT 18Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...MVFR DUE TO CLD DECKS.

TUE...VFR.

WED-THU...SHWRS MAY BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

FRI...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...JAB




000
FXUS61 KBTV 012346
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
746 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE ENDING BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN
TOMORROW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR THIS EVENING SHOWS FIRST
WEAK 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN SECTION...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO MOVING TOWARD OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA. THIS ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BEFORE
DRIER AIR ALOFT DEVELOPS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS ZONES ABOVE 1500 FEET...WITH
DEVELOPING 925MB JET OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG...GIVEN <10 KNOTS THROUGH 850MB AT KMSS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CAT POPS NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
SOUTH WITH HIGHEST QPF VALUES AROUND 0.10 CONFINED TO THE COUNTIES
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO INCREASE
LOWS BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP AND SURFACE
DWPTS ALREADY IN THE L/M 40S. EXPECTING VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPS OVERNIGHT. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW A
STRONGER LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE MENTIONED
CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THE MORNING TAPERING OFF TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS TONIGHT AND THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS THEN EXIT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING WEAK RIDGING DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
WITH OCCASIONAL PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER TIME,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 35
TO 45 RANGE AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY FROM 57 TO 63 OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY BY THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEAK AS DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SETTLES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH, LIKELY CUTTING
OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD. THESE LATEST TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS/PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR ON THE FRONT END OF THE TROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BEYOND WHICH DEFAULT RIDGING LOOKS TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS OUR REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CLOSED
SYSTEM. AS SUCH I`VE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SHOWERS
(40-60 PCT) IN THE EARLIER TIME FRAMES, THEN TRENDED MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH LOWER POPS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME WILL
TELL HOW ALL THIS EVOLVES, AND IT`S ALWAYS A BIT TRICKY WHEN
DEALING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOWS. PER LATEST BLENDED
925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES FROM THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS EACH DAY
MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. IF
MORE SUN IS REALIZED BY LATER IN THE WEEK SOME LOWER 70S WILL BE
POSSIBLE. YES FOLKS, SPRING HAS FINALLY ARRIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR INTERVALS
FROM VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE, MIST AND STRATUS. LOW CEILINGS WILL
OBSCURE MTNS.

WARM FRONTAL RAIN IS LIFTING NORTHWARD, WITH ONLY A COUPLE MORE
HOURS OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER 03Z,
UNSATURATED CONDITIONS ALOFT SUPPORT AREAS OF DRIZZLE
(INTERSPERSED WITH MIST) LASTING THROUGH LATE MORNING MONDAY
(14-16Z) MONDAY. IT`S DURING THIS 03-14Z TIME PERIOD WHERE
CEILINGS/VIS MAY DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE. I`VE TRIED TO HINT AT
THIS WITH SCT IFR CEILINGS IN PREVAILING MVFR DECK. WINDS
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 4-8 KTS TRENDING LIGHT/VARIABLE.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS NEXT SHOT OF STEADIER LIGHT
RAIN AFTER 14Z LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MVFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH 3-5 SM RAIN. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST
UNDER 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
00Z TUE - 12Z TUE: MVFR IN RAIN. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW
CEILINGS.
TUE - WED: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON.
THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.
FRI: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBUF 012327
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
727 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL HAVE AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DENSE FOG. EXPECT SHOWERS
SLATED FOR LATER TONIGHT TO REDUCE THE FOG.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY INTO THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT RETREATS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE OR
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
INITIALLY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE UNTIL THE SURFACE REFLECTION
TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT. NEARLY ALL 12Z GUIDANCE ALONG WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY RAMP UP PROBABILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE MONDAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY 00Z MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SECOND ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL HAVE SLID EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...WITH
THE TRAILING EDGE OF ITS RAIN SHIELD ALREADY HAVING RECEDED INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK. THUS...EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE PRECIPITATION-FREE
BY THE TIME WE REACH SUNSET...THOUGH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE PLAINS.

AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WHILE YET
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND
DELMARVA REGION. THIS LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD THUS REMAIN ON A FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TRACK TO KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD CONFINED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST... THUS THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH GRADUAL
DRYING AND SLOWLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING TO DRIVE THE
LIMITED CLEARING FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER INLAND...THOUGH
SKIES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

ON TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH
THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH SLIDING EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN...
OUR REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPENSATING ZONE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED
FAIR/DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AS
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LINGERING LOWER CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE... 850 MB TEMPS OF +2C TO
+4C SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH
IS DEAD-ON AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE LINGERING SURFACE WAVE/FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST... AND THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH A NARROWING COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/RELATIVELY DRIER AIR REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. OVERALL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND PAST
EXPERIENCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE ALSO
CASTING CONSIDERABLE DOUBT UPON THE PRECIP BEING SPIT OUT BY THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS PARTICULARLY
OVERDONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PULL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS FOR
TEMPS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

AFTER THAT...THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
DECIDED TURN TO MORE UNSETTLED AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WEATHER AS
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION... AND BECOMES THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE GRADUAL
MERGING OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COASTAL SURFACE WAVES INTO A
SINGLE...BUT ALSO RATHER BROAD AND DIFFUSE LOW THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

AS THE ABOVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...THE COMBINATION OF THE MERGING
SURFACE FEATURES...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND SLOWLY COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN
PINNING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES
DRIVING ANY SUCH SHOWERS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IN THIS KIND OF
PATTERN...FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH
BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE SOME RAIN FREE PERIODS.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS STILL IN THE +2C TO +4C
RANGE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOW COOLING OF OUR
AIRMASS RESULTS IN READINGS PULLING BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
FOR THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES...THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT TWIN...DEEP CLOSED LOWS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR BOTH COASTS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS GENERAL PATTERN...THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
IN THE THINKING FOR THE POSITION OF THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW BY THE
WEEKEND.

ALL OF THE MODELS ARE NOW PUSHING THE STACKED CLOSED LOW FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE CLOSED LOW BEING SHUNTED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN THE CLOSED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST...AND EVENTUALLY A DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER LAKES. THE GENERAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL OFFER MORE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
AND CERTAINLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES. INSTEAD OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
MERCURY READINGS...WE SHOULD CLIMB TO ABV NORMAL LEVELS FOR BOTH
DAYS OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAX`S RANGING FROM 65 TO AS HIGH AS 70 (SRN
TIER AND GEN VALLEYS).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS FOR  MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LIFR
WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS WESTERN NY TO THE
FINGER LAKES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 10Z AS STEADY
RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND THIN THE FOG OUT. LOW MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF AN ADVANCING
SURFACE WARM FRONT ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIT FOR A PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING
ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVE HEIGHT AROUND 3 FEET.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...TMA




000
FXUS61 KBGM 012319
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
719 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF WEAK STORMS ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY PROGGED TO TRACK NE
TOWARD PA BY MORNING. FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT, NOT EXPECTING
MUCH...JUST A FEW LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE.
LATE TONIGHT, TOWARD 12Z, NEXT BATCH OF HEAVIER AND STEADIER RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH S/W ALOFT
AND APPROACHING SFC LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BUDGE TOO MUCH
TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND WAA PATTERN WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
305 PM UPDATE...
A POTENT WAVE WILL PASS OVER NY/PA EARLY MONDAY, BRINGING A QUICK SHOT
OF MODERATE RAINS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF OUR
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OUR
VICINITY. THOUGH RAINS WILL TAPER OFF, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER NY AND PA FROM TIME TO TIME.

A MEAN TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIPPING OUT OF ONTARIO ACROSS NY/PA EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, AS COOLER AIR
KEEPS TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN RESPECT TO THE
XPCTD CLSD LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE
OH VLY THU DVLPS INTO A CLSD LOW WHICH DRFTS TO THE NC CST BY FRI
MRNG. THIS WILL KEEP SHWRS AND COOL AIR OVER THE AREA THRU THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY SAT MRNG...UPR LOW AS DRFTD INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC...PERHAPS AS A RESPONSE TO THE WV PUSHING INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BIT OF WEAK RDGG OVER THE FCST AREA AND
IMPROVING WX. WITH THE CORE OF THE UPR LOW MVG SOUTH OF THE
AREA...HAVE LWRD POPS A BIT AND INCRSD TEMPS AS THE COOLER AIR SHD
NOT BE OVHD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW OVER THE LWR GREAT LAKES IS PUSHING MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE
COOL LL AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN PLENTY
OF CLDS AND PTCHY SHWRS. XPCT LTL CHG IN CONDS AS THE SFC WRM FNT
REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR CIGS AND MVFR
VSBYS WILL CONT. AFTER DARK AS WE BECOME MORE STABLE...CIGS WILL
LWR AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CIG WITH PTCHY DRIZZLE. ATTME
XPCT VSBYS TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE. ON MON...ANOTHER WV APRCHS
WHICH WILL INCRS MIXING AND RAISE CIGS...BUT WILL ALSO BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS THRU THE END OF THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...MVFR DUE TO CLD DECKS.

TUE...VFR.

WED-THU...SHWRS MAY BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

FRI...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 012313
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
713 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE ENDING BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN
TOMORROW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR THIS EVENING SHOWS FIRST
WEAK 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN SECTION...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO MOVING TOWARD OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA. THIS ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BEFORE
DRIER AIR ALOFT DEVELOPS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS ZONES ABOVE 1500 FEET...WITH
DEVELOPING 925MB JET OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG...GIVEN <10 KNOTS THROUGH 850MB AT KMSS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CAT POPS NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
SOUTH WITH HIGHEST QPF VALUES AROUND 0.10 CONFINED TO THE COUNTIES
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO INCREASE
LOWS BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP AND SURFACE
DWPTS ALREADY IN THE L/M 40S. EXPECTING VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPS OVERNIGHT. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW A
STRONGER LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE MENTIONED
CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THE MORNING TAPERING OFF TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS TONIGHT AND THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS THEN EXIT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING WEAK RIDGING DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
WITH OCCASIONAL PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER TIME,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 35
TO 45 RANGE AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY FROM 57 TO 63 OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY BY THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEAK AS DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SETTLES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH, LIKELY CUTTING
OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD. THESE LATEST TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS/PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR ON THE FRONT END OF THE TROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BEYOND WHICH DEFAULT RIDGING LOOKS TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS OUR REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CLOSED
SYSTEM. AS SUCH I`VE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SHOWERS
(40-60 PCT) IN THE EARLIER TIME FRAMES, THEN TRENDED MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH LOWER POPS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME WILL
TELL HOW ALL THIS EVOLVES, AND IT`S ALWAYS A BIT TRICKY WHEN
DEALING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOWS. PER LATEST BLENDED
925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES FROM THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS EACH DAY
MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. IF
MORE SUN IS REALIZED BY LATER IN THE WEEK SOME LOWER 70S WILL BE
POSSIBLE. YES FOLKS, SPRING HAS FINALLY ARRIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL IS FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR IN
PERSISTENT SHOWERS. WINDS ARE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS. AS OF 21
Z RAIN IS STARTING TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA. CIGS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 3-5 SM. THE MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND SOME IFR STRATUS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN VT IN THE THRU 01Z/MON
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE
OR S AT 5-10 KTS. MORE PREVAILING RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...18Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR
W/POSSIBLE IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED
FROM LOW CEILINGS. TUE - WED: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS
WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN
NY. FRI: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 012313
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
713 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE ENDING BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN
TOMORROW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR THIS EVENING SHOWS FIRST
WEAK 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN SECTION...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO MOVING TOWARD OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA. THIS ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BEFORE
DRIER AIR ALOFT DEVELOPS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS ZONES ABOVE 1500 FEET...WITH
DEVELOPING 925MB JET OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG...GIVEN <10 KNOTS THROUGH 850MB AT KMSS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CAT POPS NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
SOUTH WITH HIGHEST QPF VALUES AROUND 0.10 CONFINED TO THE COUNTIES
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO INCREASE
LOWS BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP AND SURFACE
DWPTS ALREADY IN THE L/M 40S. EXPECTING VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPS OVERNIGHT. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW A
STRONGER LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE MENTIONED
CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THE MORNING TAPERING OFF TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS TONIGHT AND THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS THEN EXIT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING WEAK RIDGING DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
WITH OCCASIONAL PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER TIME,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 35
TO 45 RANGE AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY FROM 57 TO 63 OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY BY THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEAK AS DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SETTLES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH, LIKELY CUTTING
OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD. THESE LATEST TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS/PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR ON THE FRONT END OF THE TROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BEYOND WHICH DEFAULT RIDGING LOOKS TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS OUR REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CLOSED
SYSTEM. AS SUCH I`VE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SHOWERS
(40-60 PCT) IN THE EARLIER TIME FRAMES, THEN TRENDED MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH LOWER POPS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME WILL
TELL HOW ALL THIS EVOLVES, AND IT`S ALWAYS A BIT TRICKY WHEN
DEALING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOWS. PER LATEST BLENDED
925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES FROM THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS EACH DAY
MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. IF
MORE SUN IS REALIZED BY LATER IN THE WEEK SOME LOWER 70S WILL BE
POSSIBLE. YES FOLKS, SPRING HAS FINALLY ARRIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL IS FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR IN
PERSISTENT SHOWERS. WINDS ARE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS. AS OF 21
Z RAIN IS STARTING TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA. CIGS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 3-5 SM. THE MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND SOME IFR STRATUS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN VT IN THE THRU 01Z/MON
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE
OR S AT 5-10 KTS. MORE PREVAILING RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...18Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR
W/POSSIBLE IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED
FROM LOW CEILINGS. TUE - WED: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS
WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN
NY. FRI: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 012313
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
713 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE ENDING BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN
TOMORROW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR THIS EVENING SHOWS FIRST
WEAK 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN SECTION...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO MOVING TOWARD OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA. THIS ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BEFORE
DRIER AIR ALOFT DEVELOPS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS ZONES ABOVE 1500 FEET...WITH
DEVELOPING 925MB JET OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG...GIVEN <10 KNOTS THROUGH 850MB AT KMSS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CAT POPS NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
SOUTH WITH HIGHEST QPF VALUES AROUND 0.10 CONFINED TO THE COUNTIES
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO INCREASE
LOWS BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP AND SURFACE
DWPTS ALREADY IN THE L/M 40S. EXPECTING VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPS OVERNIGHT. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW A
STRONGER LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE MENTIONED
CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THE MORNING TAPERING OFF TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS TONIGHT AND THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS THEN EXIT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING WEAK RIDGING DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
WITH OCCASIONAL PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER TIME,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 35
TO 45 RANGE AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY FROM 57 TO 63 OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY BY THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEAK AS DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SETTLES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH, LIKELY CUTTING
OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD. THESE LATEST TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS/PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR ON THE FRONT END OF THE TROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BEYOND WHICH DEFAULT RIDGING LOOKS TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS OUR REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CLOSED
SYSTEM. AS SUCH I`VE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SHOWERS
(40-60 PCT) IN THE EARLIER TIME FRAMES, THEN TRENDED MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH LOWER POPS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME WILL
TELL HOW ALL THIS EVOLVES, AND IT`S ALWAYS A BIT TRICKY WHEN
DEALING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOWS. PER LATEST BLENDED
925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES FROM THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS EACH DAY
MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. IF
MORE SUN IS REALIZED BY LATER IN THE WEEK SOME LOWER 70S WILL BE
POSSIBLE. YES FOLKS, SPRING HAS FINALLY ARRIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL IS FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR IN
PERSISTENT SHOWERS. WINDS ARE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS. AS OF 21
Z RAIN IS STARTING TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA. CIGS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 3-5 SM. THE MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND SOME IFR STRATUS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN VT IN THE THRU 01Z/MON
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE
OR S AT 5-10 KTS. MORE PREVAILING RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...18Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR
W/POSSIBLE IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED
FROM LOW CEILINGS. TUE - WED: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS
WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN
NY. FRI: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 012313
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
713 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE ENDING BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN
TOMORROW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR THIS EVENING SHOWS FIRST
WEAK 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN SECTION...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO MOVING TOWARD OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA. THIS ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BEFORE
DRIER AIR ALOFT DEVELOPS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS ZONES ABOVE 1500 FEET...WITH
DEVELOPING 925MB JET OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG...GIVEN <10 KNOTS THROUGH 850MB AT KMSS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CAT POPS NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
SOUTH WITH HIGHEST QPF VALUES AROUND 0.10 CONFINED TO THE COUNTIES
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO INCREASE
LOWS BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP AND SURFACE
DWPTS ALREADY IN THE L/M 40S. EXPECTING VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPS OVERNIGHT. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW A
STRONGER LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE MENTIONED
CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THE MORNING TAPERING OFF TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS TONIGHT AND THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS THEN EXIT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING WEAK RIDGING DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
WITH OCCASIONAL PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER TIME,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 35
TO 45 RANGE AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY FROM 57 TO 63 OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY BY THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEAK AS DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SETTLES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH, LIKELY CUTTING
OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD. THESE LATEST TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS/PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR ON THE FRONT END OF THE TROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BEYOND WHICH DEFAULT RIDGING LOOKS TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS OUR REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CLOSED
SYSTEM. AS SUCH I`VE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SHOWERS
(40-60 PCT) IN THE EARLIER TIME FRAMES, THEN TRENDED MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH LOWER POPS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME WILL
TELL HOW ALL THIS EVOLVES, AND IT`S ALWAYS A BIT TRICKY WHEN
DEALING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOWS. PER LATEST BLENDED
925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES FROM THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS EACH DAY
MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. IF
MORE SUN IS REALIZED BY LATER IN THE WEEK SOME LOWER 70S WILL BE
POSSIBLE. YES FOLKS, SPRING HAS FINALLY ARRIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL IS FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR IN
PERSISTENT SHOWERS. WINDS ARE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS. AS OF 21
Z RAIN IS STARTING TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA. CIGS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 3-5 SM. THE MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND SOME IFR STRATUS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN VT IN THE THRU 01Z/MON
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE
OR S AT 5-10 KTS. MORE PREVAILING RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...18Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR
W/POSSIBLE IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED
FROM LOW CEILINGS. TUE - WED: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS
WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN
NY. FRI: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KOKX 012251
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
651 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. A MORE COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 10KFT CONTINUES TO DRY OUT THIS EVENING WITH
DEEPEST SATURATION OCCURRING IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH A COOL...MOIST NE FLOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS ALSO SHOW STEADIEST RAIN PUSHING TO THE EAST
WITH MOST OBSERVATIONS OF JUST LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW SPOTS WITH
SOME DRIZZLE. EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. POPS DECREASE TO JUST CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA AROUND 9PM.

LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH LOW LEVELS SATURATED.

WARM FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK
MONDAY...AND STEADY RAIN SHOULD BECOME LIKELY OVER NW ORANGE
COUNTY AT THAT TIME.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS LOW PRES OVER WESTERN NY APPROACHES...A SECONDARY LOW LOOKS TO
FORM OFF THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PASS SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. MEANWHILE...THE PARENT LOW WILL PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA. THINK BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER NW ZONES MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP FOR THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS...BUT BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL EITHER BE TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.

ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING...CONDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED...AND CAN EXPECT SOME
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.

UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS ON TAP WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN TRACK TO THE SE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN MEANDER HERE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THIS
SCENARIO AND THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. HOWEVER...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITY OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SHOWERS AT ANY TIME.

BEFORE THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS...A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND ON TUESDAY ACTS A FOCUS FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND RIDE ALONG IT. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 115-125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TUESDAY MORNING. THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RAIN EXISTS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTHERN TIER FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE
BOUNDARY/WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SO
DID NOT WANT TO RAISE POPS ANY FURTHER THAN LIKELY. THE UPPER JET
CORE SHIFTS TO THE NE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH DECREASES
LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HAVE GENERALLY KEPT CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PREDICTABILITY WITH ANY SMALLER SCALE FEATURE WITH THE UPPPER
LEVEL CUTOFF IS RATHER LOW. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY
CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THEM AT THIS
JUNCTURE IS RATHER DIFFICULT AND SHOWS HIGH VARIABILITY RUN TO RUN
IN THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ANY PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE CUTOFF AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT
OFF THE COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE SUITE...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE SINCE THIS IS STILL SEVEN
DAYS OUT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND REMAINS JUST SOUTH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES NEARBY OVERNIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING AS CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES LOWER. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS FORECAST.
AT TIMES IT WILL BE DRY.

LOW CLOUDS...IFR OR LOW END MVFR...CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE AS WELL.

WINDS FROM THE E/SE WILL BACK TO THE NE/E TONIGHT. THE WIND
FORECAST ON MONDAY REMAINS UNCERTAIN THUS LOWER CONFIDENCE...
DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT WINDS TO TURN TOWARD THE E/SE IN THE MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON...IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH END MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN VFR
WITH A PASSING SHOWER.
.MON NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN MORE RAIN LATE.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.TUE NIGHT-FRI...SUB-VFR AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/LOW
CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON COASTAL WATERS REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING.

SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN...AND A FEW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AND
THEN SEAS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CRITERIA. WITH A WEAK GRADIENT OVER
THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEAK WITH
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SEAS MAY PUSH OVER 5 FT LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/4-1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS FAR NW
ZONES. 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL CONTINUE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING...LOCATION...AND AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/DS
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MPS/DS
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 012039
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
439 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE ENDING BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN
TOMORROW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS TOMORROW A STRONGER LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE
MENTIONED CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THE MORNING TAPERING OFF TOWARDS
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS TONIGHT AND THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL ON
MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS THEN EXIT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING WEAK RIDGING DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
WITH OCCASIONAL PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER TIME,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 35
TO 45 RANGE AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY FROM 57 TO 63 OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY BY THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEAK AS DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SETTLES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH, LIKELY CUTTING
OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD. THESE LATEST TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS/PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR ON THE FRONT END OF THE TROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BEYOND WHICH DEFAULT RIDGING LOOKS TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS OUR REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CLOSED
SYSTEM. AS SUCH I`VE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SHOWERS
(40-60 PCT) IN THE EARLIER TIME FRAMES, THEN TRENDED MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH LOWER POPS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME WILL
TELL HOW ALL THIS EVOLVES, AND IT`S ALWAYS A BIT TRICKY WHEN
DEALING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOWS. PER LATEST BLENDED
925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES FROM THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS EACH DAY
MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. IF
MORE SUN IS REALIZED BY LATER IN THE WEEK SOME LOWER 70S WILL BE
POSSIBLE. YES FOLKS, SPRING HAS FINALLY ARRIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL IS FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR IN
PERSISTENT SHOWERS. WINDS ARE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS. AS OF 21
Z RAIN IS STARTING TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA. CIGS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 3-5 SM. THE MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND SOME IFR STRATUS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN VT IN THE THRU 01Z/MON
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE
OR S AT 5-10 KTS. MORE PREVAILING RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...18Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR
W/POSSIBLE IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED
FROM LOW CEILINGS. TUE - WED: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS
WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN
NY. FRI: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBUF 012025
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
425 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY INTO THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT RETREATS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE OR
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
INITIALLY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE UNTIL THE SURFACE REFLECTION
TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT. NEARLY ALL 12Z GUIDANCE ALONG WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY RAMP UP PROBABILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE MONDAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY 00Z MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SECOND ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL HAVE SLID EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...WITH
THE TRAILING EDGE OF ITS RAIN SHIELD ALREADY HAVING RECEDED INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK. THUS...EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE PRECIPITATION-FREE
BY THE TIME WE REACH SUNSET...THOUGH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE PLAINS.

AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WHILE YET
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND
DELMARVA REGION. THIS LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD THUS REMAIN ON A FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TRACK TO KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD CONFINED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST... THUS THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH GRADUAL
DRYING AND SLOWLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING TO DRIVE THE
LIMITED CLEARING FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER INLAND...THOUGH
SKIES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

ON TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH
THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH SLIDING EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN...
OUR REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPENSATING ZONE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED
FAIR/DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AS
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LINGERING LOWER CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE... 850 MB TEMPS OF +2C TO
+4C SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH
IS DEAD-ON AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE LINGERING SURFACE WAVE/FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST... AND THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH A NARROWING COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/RELATIVELY DRIER AIR REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. OVERALL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND PAST
EXPERIENCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE ALSO
CASTING CONSIDERABLE DOUBT UPON THE PRECIP BEING SPIT OUT BY THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS PARTICULARLY
OVERDONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PULL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS FOR
TEMPS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

AFTER THAT...THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
DECIDED TURN TO MORE UNSETTLED AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WEATHER AS
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION... AND BECOMES THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE GRADUAL
MERGING OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COASTAL SURFACE WAVES INTO A
SINGLE...BUT ALSO RATHER BROAD AND DIFFUSE LOW THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

AS THE ABOVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...THE COMBINATION OF THE MERGING
SURFACE FEATURES...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND SLOWLY COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN
PINNING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES
DRIVING ANY SUCH SHOWERS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IN THIS KIND OF
PATTERN...FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH
BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE SOME RAIN FREE PERIODS.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS STILL IN THE +2C TO +4C
RANGE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOW COOLING OF OUR
AIRMASS RESULTS IN READINGS PULLING BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
FOR THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES...THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT TWIN...DEEP CLOSED LOWS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR BOTH COASTS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS GENERAL PATTERN...THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
IN THE THINKING FOR THE POSITION OF THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW BY THE
WEEKEND.

ALL OF THE MODELS ARE NOW PUSHING THE STACKED CLOSED LOW FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE CLOSED LOW BEING SHUNTED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN THE CLOSED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST...AND EVENTUALLY A DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER LAKES. THE GENERAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL OFFER MORE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
AND CERTAINLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES. INSTEAD OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
MERCURY READINGS...WE SHOULD CLIMB TO ABV NORMAL LEVELS FOR BOTH
DAYS OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAX`S RANGING FROM 65 TO AS HIGH AS 70 (SRN
TIER AND GEN VALLEYS).

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR/IFR FOR MOST SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY LOWER CIGS TO IFR FOR MOST.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SOUTHERN TIER. UNCERTAINTY AND EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE HAS
PRECLUDED MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF AN ADVANCING
SURFACE WARM FRONT ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIT FOR A PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING
ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVE HEIGHT AROUND 3 FEET.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 012025
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
425 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY INTO THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT RETREATS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE OR
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
INITIALLY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE UNTIL THE SURFACE REFLECTION
TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT. NEARLY ALL 12Z GUIDANCE ALONG WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY RAMP UP PROBABILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE MONDAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY 00Z MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SECOND ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL HAVE SLID EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...WITH
THE TRAILING EDGE OF ITS RAIN SHIELD ALREADY HAVING RECEDED INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK. THUS...EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE PRECIPITATION-FREE
BY THE TIME WE REACH SUNSET...THOUGH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE PLAINS.

AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WHILE YET
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND
DELMARVA REGION. THIS LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD THUS REMAIN ON A FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TRACK TO KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD CONFINED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST... THUS THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH GRADUAL
DRYING AND SLOWLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING TO DRIVE THE
LIMITED CLEARING FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER INLAND...THOUGH
SKIES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

ON TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH
THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH SLIDING EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN...
OUR REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPENSATING ZONE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED
FAIR/DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AS
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LINGERING LOWER CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE... 850 MB TEMPS OF +2C TO
+4C SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH
IS DEAD-ON AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE LINGERING SURFACE WAVE/FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST... AND THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH A NARROWING COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/RELATIVELY DRIER AIR REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. OVERALL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND PAST
EXPERIENCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE ALSO
CASTING CONSIDERABLE DOUBT UPON THE PRECIP BEING SPIT OUT BY THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS PARTICULARLY
OVERDONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PULL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS FOR
TEMPS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

AFTER THAT...THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
DECIDED TURN TO MORE UNSETTLED AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WEATHER AS
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION... AND BECOMES THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE GRADUAL
MERGING OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COASTAL SURFACE WAVES INTO A
SINGLE...BUT ALSO RATHER BROAD AND DIFFUSE LOW THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

AS THE ABOVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...THE COMBINATION OF THE MERGING
SURFACE FEATURES...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND SLOWLY COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN
PINNING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES
DRIVING ANY SUCH SHOWERS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IN THIS KIND OF
PATTERN...FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH
BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE SOME RAIN FREE PERIODS.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS STILL IN THE +2C TO +4C
RANGE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOW COOLING OF OUR
AIRMASS RESULTS IN READINGS PULLING BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
FOR THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES...THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT TWIN...DEEP CLOSED LOWS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR BOTH COASTS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS GENERAL PATTERN...THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
IN THE THINKING FOR THE POSITION OF THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW BY THE
WEEKEND.

ALL OF THE MODELS ARE NOW PUSHING THE STACKED CLOSED LOW FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE CLOSED LOW BEING SHUNTED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN THE CLOSED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST...AND EVENTUALLY A DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER LAKES. THE GENERAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL OFFER MORE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
AND CERTAINLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES. INSTEAD OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
MERCURY READINGS...WE SHOULD CLIMB TO ABV NORMAL LEVELS FOR BOTH
DAYS OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAX`S RANGING FROM 65 TO AS HIGH AS 70 (SRN
TIER AND GEN VALLEYS).

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR/IFR FOR MOST SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY LOWER CIGS TO IFR FOR MOST.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SOUTHERN TIER. UNCERTAINTY AND EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE HAS
PRECLUDED MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF AN ADVANCING
SURFACE WARM FRONT ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIT FOR A PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING
ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVE HEIGHT AROUND 3 FEET.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA




000
FXUS61 KALY 012008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A BREAK IN THE STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS THE FA WILL BE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN IT WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SOME DRIZZLE. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN
SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS
60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WVS DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPR
LAYERS...AND GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AND WEAK LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY
AREAS INTO MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD IS UNSETTLED.

WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ONE...POSSIBLY TWO CUTOFF LOWS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

THE PERIOD OPENS UP ONE CUT OFF LOW SITTING SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PA OR WV. CSTAR STUDIES HAVE INDICATED WHEN
CUTOFF LOW IS IN SUCH A POSITION...A SURFACE LOW WOULD BE PARKED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION
ZONE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION.

HOWEVER...SO FAR...IN THIS CASE...ALL LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INSIST THAT THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATED "NORMAL" AMOUNTS
OF PWATS OVER OUR REGION MIDWEEK.

CSTAR STUDIES WOULD DICTATE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS
AGAIN...NORMALLY SUCH A POSITION FOR A CUTOFF COULD SPELL LOTS OF
RAIN FOR OUR REGION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LOT OF DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE LOW KEEPING THINGS LESS WET.

THAT SAID...WE WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS IN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND
AS THIS CUTOFF LOW IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...LIKELY OFF THE DE OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO DROP SOUTH
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

THE TIMING OF RAIN AND EVEN ULTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWS 45-50
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40-45 WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. AT TIMES...IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOWEST
CEILINGS AND MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL. ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...STEADY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES
NEAR A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH ALL TAF
SITES. AS WE WORK PAST 00Z MONDAY...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH...HOWEVER TAFS STILL DISPLAY BR/-DZ CONDITIONS AS LOW
CEILINGS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LINGERING BR/-DZ
CONDITIONS. AS WE MOVE PAST 12Z MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT EDGES
CLOSER TO OUR SOUTHERN REGION...A SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN SOME STEADIER RAINS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONTINUING MVFR AND
AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...CEILINGS
WITHIN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE SOUTHERLY AT
TIMES AS THE NON LINEAR FRONT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER TO OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...DZ.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS
THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO
DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF
AND INCH TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP AND
ONLY RESULT IN SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBUF 011954
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
354 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY INTO THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT RETREATS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE OR
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
INITIALLY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE UNTIL THE SURFACE REFLECTION
TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT. NEARLY ALL 12Z GUIDANCE ALONG WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY RAMP UP PROBABILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE MONDAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY 00Z MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SECOND ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL HAVE SLID EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...WITH
THE TRAILING EDGE OF ITS RAIN SHIELD ALREADY HAVING RECEDED INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK. THUS...EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE PRECIPITATION-FREE
BY THE TIME WE REACH SUNSET...THOUGH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE PLAINS.

AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WHILE YET
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND
DELMARVA REGION. THIS LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD THUS REMAIN ON A FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TRACK TO KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD CONFINED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST... THUS THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH GRADUAL
DRYING AND SLOWLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING TO DRIVE THE
LIMITED CLEARING FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER INLAND...THOUGH
SKIES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

ON TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH
THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH SLIDING EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN...
OUR REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPENSATING ZONE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED
FAIR/DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AS
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LINGERING LOWER CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE... 850 MB TEMPS OF +2C TO
+4C SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH
IS DEAD-ON AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE LINGERING SURFACE WAVE/FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST... AND THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH A NARROWING COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/RELATIVELY DRIER AIR REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. OVERALL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND PAST
EXPERIENCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE ALSO
CASTING CONSIDERABLE DOUBT UPON THE PRECIP BEING SPIT OUT BY THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS PARTICULARLY
OVERDONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PULL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS FOR
TEMPS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

AFTER THAT...THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
DECIDED TURN TO MORE UNSETTLED AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WEATHER AS
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION... AND BECOMES THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE GRADUAL
MERGING OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COASTAL SURFACE WAVES INTO A
SINGLE...BUT ALSO RATHER BROAD AND DIFFUSE LOW THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

AS THE ABOVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...THE COMBINATION OF THE MERGING
SURFACE FEATURES...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND SLOWLY COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN
PINNING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES
DRIVING ANY SUCH SHOWERS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IN THIS KIND OF
PATTERN...FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH
BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE SOME RAIN FREE PERIODS.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS STILL IN THE +2C TO +4C
RANGE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOW COOLING OF OUR
AIRMASS RESULTS IN READINGS PULLING BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
FOR THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES...THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT TWIN...DEEP CLOSED LOWS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR BOTH COASTS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS GENERAL PATTERN...THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
IN THE THINKING FOR THE POSITION OF THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW BY THE
WEEKEND.

ALL OF THE MODELS ARE NOW PUSHING THE STACKED CLOSED LOW FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE CLOSED LOW BEING SHUNTED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN THE CLOSED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST...AND EVENTUALLY A DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER LAKES. THE GENERAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL OFFER MORE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
AND CERTAINLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES. INSTEAD OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
MERCURY READINGS...WE SHOULD CLIMB TO ABV NORMAL LEVELS FOR BOTH
DAYS OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAX`S RANGING FROM 65 TO AS HIGH AS 70 (SRN
TIER AND GEN VALLEYS).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR/IFR FOR MOST SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY LOWER CIGS TO IFR FOR MOST.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SOUTHERN TIER. UNCERTAINTY AND EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE HAS
PRECLUDED MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF AN ADVANCING
SURFACE WARM FRONT ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIT FOR A PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING
ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVE HEIGHT AROUND 3 FEET.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011938
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
338 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. A MORE COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RAIN BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION AND PRECIP TAPERING
OFF...WILL REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER THIS EVENING. WILL TAPER POPS
DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
SATURATED AND LOW PRES TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH.

MOST MODELS INDICATING A LULL IN THE PRECIP SOMETIME LATE
TONIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. WITH ATMOSPHERE
SATURATED...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
IN THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS PATCHY FOG.

WARM FRONT NOSES INTO FAR NW ZONES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND RAIN
MAY BE LIKELY OVER NW ORANGE COUNTY BY THEN.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS LOW PRES OVER WESTERN NY APPROACHES...A SECONDARY LOW LOOKS TO
FORM OFF THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PASS SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. MEANWHILE...THE PARENT LOW WILL PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA. THINK BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER NW ZONES MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP FOR THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS...BUT BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL EITHER BE TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.

ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING...CONDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED...AND CAN EXPECT SOME
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.

UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS ON TAP WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN TRACK TO THE SE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN MEANDER HERE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THIS
SCENARIO AND THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. HOWEVER...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITY OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SHOWERS AT ANY TIME.

BEFORE THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS...A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND ON TUESDAY ACTS A FOCUS FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND RIDE ALONG IT. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 115-125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TUESDAY MORNING. THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RAIN EXISTS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTHERN TIER FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE
BOUNDARY/WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SO
DID NOT WANT TO RAISE POPS ANY FURTHER THAN LIKELY. THE UPPER JET
CORE SHIFTS TO THE NE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH DECREASES
LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HAVE GENERALLY KEPT CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PREDICTABILITY WITH ANY SMALLER SCALE FEATURE WITH THE UPPPER
LEVEL CUTOFF IS RATHER LOW. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY
CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THEM AT THIS
JUNCTURE IS RATHER DIFFICULT AND SHOWS HIGH VARIABILITY RUN TO RUN
IN THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ANY PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE CUTOFF AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT
OFF THE COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE SUITE...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE SINCE THIS IS STILL SEVEN
DAYS OUT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND REMAINS JUST SOUTH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES NEARBY OVERNIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING AS CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES LOWER. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS FORECAST.
AT TIMES IT WILL BE DRY.

LOW CLOUDS...IFR OR LOW END MVFR...CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE AS WELL.

WINDS FROM THE E/SE WILL BACK TO THE NE/E TONIGHT. THE WIND
FORECAST ON MONDAY REMAINS UNCERTAIN THUS LOWER CONFIDENCE...
DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT WINDS TO TURN TOWARD THE E/SE IN THE MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON...IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH END MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN VFR
WITH A PASSING SHOWER.
.MON NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN MORE RAIN LATE.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.TUE NIGHT-FRI...SUB-VFR AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/LOW
CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN...AND A FEW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AND
THEN SEAS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CRITERIA. WITH A WEAK GRADIENT OVER
THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEAK WITH
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SEAS MAY PUSH OVER 5 FT LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 1/4 INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...AND THEN AN
ADDITIONAL 1/4-1/2 INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS FAR NW
ZONES. 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL CONTINUE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING...LOCATION...AND AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/DS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MPS/DS
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DS




000
FXUS61 KBGM 011907
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
307 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF WEAK STORMS ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
300 PM UPDATE...
RADAR DEPICTS MORE CONVECTIVE-LOOKING ACTIVITY FIRING OVER WESTERN
PA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AFTER
LOWERING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON, WE KEPT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE EVENING HOURS, WHEN THE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO PASS ALONG NY/PA BORDER.

1130 AM UPDATE...
THE MAIN SWATH OF RAIN IS EXITING THE EASTERN FA THIS MORNING,
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY LEFT BEHIND. GRID UPDATES REFLECT A
PERIOD OF LESS COVERAGE, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FILLING
IN LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
305 PM UPDATE...
A POTENT WAVE WILL PASS OVER NY/PA EARLY MONDAY, BRINGING A QUICK SHOT
OF MODERATE RAINS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF OUR
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OUR
VICINITY. THOUGH RAINS WILL TAPER OFF, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER NY AND PA FROM TIME TO TIME.

A MEAN TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIPPING OUT OF ONTARIO ACROSS NY/PA EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, AS COOLER AIR
KEEPS TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

4 AM UPDATE...
STRONG SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX
ALOFT...WILL CARRY THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. THIS WILL REPRESENT THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN...ANOTHER FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE...YET THE PATTERN WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE WAVE MONDAY MORNING...BEYOND THEN THE MODELS
DIFFER IN DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AS THE FRONTAL ZONE GETS
HUNG UP SOMEWHERE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. SO WHILE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET COMPARED TO MONDAY
MORNING...THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS SMALL DIFFICULT-TO-TIME WAVES MAKE
THEIR WAY THROUGH THE WSW TO SW FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...LOW 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S SOUTH. STILL A BIT SHORT OF CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH WITH LESS OF A GRADIENT WITH UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. AS FOR LOWS...UPPER 30S-MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN A FEW DEGREES UP FROM THAT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN RESPECT TO THE
XPCTD CLSD LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE
OH VLY THU DVLPS INTO A CLSD LOW WHICH DRFTS TO THE NC CST BY FRI
MRNG. THIS WILL KEEP SHWRS AND COOL AIR OVER THE AREA THRU THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY SAT MRNG...UPR LOW AS DRFTD INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC...PERHAPS AS A RESPONSE TO THE WV PUSHING INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BIT OF WEAK RDGG OVER THE FCST AREA AND
IMPROVING WX. WITH THE CORE OF THE UPR LOW MVG SOUTH OF THE
AREA...HAVE LWRD POPS A BIT AND INCRSD TEMPS AS THE COOLER AIR SHD
NOT BE OVHD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW OVER THE LWR GREAT LAKES IS PUSHING MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE
COOL LL AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN PLENTY
OF CLDS AND PTCHY SHWRS. XPCT LTL CHG IN CONDS AS THE SFC WRM FNT
REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR CIGS AND MVFR
VSBYS WILL CONT. AFTER DARK AS WE BECOME MORE STABLE...CIGS WILL
LWR AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CIG WITH PTCHY DRIZZLE. ATTME
XPCT VSBYS TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE. ON MON...ANOTHER WV APRCHS
WHICH WILL INCRS MIXING AND RAISE CIGS...BUT WILL ALSO BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS THRU THE END OF THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...MVFR DUE TO CLD DECKS.

TUE...VFR.

WED-THU...SHWRS MAY BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

FRI...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 011907
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
307 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF WEAK STORMS ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
300 PM UPDATE...
RADAR DEPICTS MORE CONVECTIVE-LOOKING ACTIVITY FIRING OVER WESTERN
PA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AFTER
LOWERING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON, WE KEPT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE EVENING HOURS, WHEN THE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO PASS ALONG NY/PA BORDER.

1130 AM UPDATE...
THE MAIN SWATH OF RAIN IS EXITING THE EASTERN FA THIS MORNING,
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY LEFT BEHIND. GRID UPDATES REFLECT A
PERIOD OF LESS COVERAGE, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FILLING
IN LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
305 PM UPDATE...
A POTENT WAVE WILL PASS OVER NY/PA EARLY MONDAY, BRINGING A QUICK SHOT
OF MODERATE RAINS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF OUR
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OUR
VICINITY. THOUGH RAINS WILL TAPER OFF, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER NY AND PA FROM TIME TO TIME.

A MEAN TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIPPING OUT OF ONTARIO ACROSS NY/PA EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, AS COOLER AIR
KEEPS TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

4 AM UPDATE...
STRONG SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX
ALOFT...WILL CARRY THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. THIS WILL REPRESENT THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN...ANOTHER FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE...YET THE PATTERN WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE WAVE MONDAY MORNING...BEYOND THEN THE MODELS
DIFFER IN DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AS THE FRONTAL ZONE GETS
HUNG UP SOMEWHERE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. SO WHILE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET COMPARED TO MONDAY
MORNING...THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS SMALL DIFFICULT-TO-TIME WAVES MAKE
THEIR WAY THROUGH THE WSW TO SW FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...LOW 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S SOUTH. STILL A BIT SHORT OF CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH WITH LESS OF A GRADIENT WITH UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. AS FOR LOWS...UPPER 30S-MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN A FEW DEGREES UP FROM THAT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN RESPECT TO THE
XPCTD CLSD LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE
OH VLY THU DVLPS INTO A CLSD LOW WHICH DRFTS TO THE NC CST BY FRI
MRNG. THIS WILL KEEP SHWRS AND COOL AIR OVER THE AREA THRU THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY SAT MRNG...UPR LOW AS DRFTD INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC...PERHAPS AS A RESPONSE TO THE WV PUSHING INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BIT OF WEAK RDGG OVER THE FCST AREA AND
IMPROVING WX. WITH THE CORE OF THE UPR LOW MVG SOUTH OF THE
AREA...HAVE LWRD POPS A BIT AND INCRSD TEMPS AS THE COOLER AIR SHD
NOT BE OVHD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW OVER THE LWR GREAT LAKES IS PUSHING MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE
COOL LL AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN PLENTY
OF CLDS AND PTCHY SHWRS. XPCT LTL CHG IN CONDS AS THE SFC WRM FNT
REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR CIGS AND MVFR
VSBYS WILL CONT. AFTER DARK AS WE BECOME MORE STABLE...CIGS WILL
LWR AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CIG WITH PTCHY DRIZZLE. ATTME
XPCT VSBYS TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE. ON MON...ANOTHER WV APRCHS
WHICH WILL INCRS MIXING AND RAISE CIGS...BUT WILL ALSO BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS THRU THE END OF THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...MVFR DUE TO CLD DECKS.

TUE...VFR.

WED-THU...SHWRS MAY BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

FRI...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM




000
FXUS61 KBUF 011845
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
245 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY INTO THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT RETREATS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE OR
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
INITIALLY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE UNTIL THE SURFACE REFLECTION
TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT. NEARLY ALL 12Z GUIDANCE ALONG WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY RAMP UP PROBABILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE MONDAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY 00Z MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SECOND ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL HAVE SLID EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...WITH
THE TRAILING EDGE OF ITS RAIN SHIELD ALREADY HAVING RECEDED INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK. THUS...EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE PRECIPITATION-FREE
BY THE TIME WE REACH SUNSET...THOUGH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE PLAINS.

AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WHILE YET
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND
DELMARVA REGION. THIS LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD THUS REMAIN ON A FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TRACK TO KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD CONFINED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST... THUS THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH GRADUAL
DRYING AND SLOWLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING TO DRIVE THE
LIMITED CLEARING FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER INLAND...THOUGH
SKIES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

ON TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH
THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH SLIDING EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN...
OUR REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPENSATING ZONE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED
FAIR/DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AS
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LINGERING LOWER CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE... 850 MB TEMPS OF +2C TO
+4C SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH
IS DEAD-ON AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE LINGERING SURFACE WAVE/FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST... AND THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH A NARROWING COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/RELATIVELY DRIER AIR REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. OVERALL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND PAST
EXPERIENCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE ALSO
CASTING CONSIDERABLE DOUBT UPON THE PRECIP BEING SPIT OUT BY THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS PARTICULARLY
OVERDONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PULL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS FOR
TEMPS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

AFTER THAT...THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
DECIDED TURN TO MORE UNSETTLED AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WEATHER AS
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION... AND BECOMES THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE GRADUAL
MERGING OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COASTAL SURFACE WAVES INTO A
SINGLE...BUT ALSO RATHER BROAD AND DIFFUSE LOW THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

AS THE ABOVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...THE COMBINATION OF THE MERGING
SURFACE FEATURES...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND SLOWLY COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN
PINNING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES
DRIVING ANY SUCH SHOWERS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IN THIS KIND OF
PATTERN...FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH
BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE SOME RAIN FREE PERIODS.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS STILL IN THE +2C TO +4C
RANGE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOW COOLING OF OUR
AIRMASS RESULTS IN READINGS PULLING BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
FOR THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCOUNTERS A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SUBSEQUENTLY LINGERS ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE HEAVILY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD IN SPITE OF
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR/IFR FOR MOST SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY LOWER CIGS TO IFR FOR MOST.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SOUTHERN TIER. UNCERTAINTY AND EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE HAS
PRECLUDED MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF AN ADVANCING
SURFACE WARM FRONT ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIT FOR A PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING
ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVE HEIGHT AROUND 3 FEET.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 011845
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
245 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY INTO THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT RETREATS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE OR
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
INITIALLY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE UNTIL THE SURFACE REFLECTION
TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT. NEARLY ALL 12Z GUIDANCE ALONG WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY RAMP UP PROBABILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE MONDAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY 00Z MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SECOND ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL HAVE SLID EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...WITH
THE TRAILING EDGE OF ITS RAIN SHIELD ALREADY HAVING RECEDED INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK. THUS...EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE PRECIPITATION-FREE
BY THE TIME WE REACH SUNSET...THOUGH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE PLAINS.

AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WHILE YET
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND
DELMARVA REGION. THIS LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD THUS REMAIN ON A FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TRACK TO KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD CONFINED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST... THUS THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH GRADUAL
DRYING AND SLOWLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING TO DRIVE THE
LIMITED CLEARING FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER INLAND...THOUGH
SKIES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

ON TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH
THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH SLIDING EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN...
OUR REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPENSATING ZONE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED
FAIR/DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AS
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LINGERING LOWER CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE... 850 MB TEMPS OF +2C TO
+4C SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH
IS DEAD-ON AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE LINGERING SURFACE WAVE/FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST... AND THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH A NARROWING COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/RELATIVELY DRIER AIR REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. OVERALL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND PAST
EXPERIENCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE ALSO
CASTING CONSIDERABLE DOUBT UPON THE PRECIP BEING SPIT OUT BY THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS PARTICULARLY
OVERDONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PULL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS FOR
TEMPS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

AFTER THAT...THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
DECIDED TURN TO MORE UNSETTLED AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WEATHER AS
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION... AND BECOMES THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE GRADUAL
MERGING OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COASTAL SURFACE WAVES INTO A
SINGLE...BUT ALSO RATHER BROAD AND DIFFUSE LOW THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

AS THE ABOVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...THE COMBINATION OF THE MERGING
SURFACE FEATURES...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND SLOWLY COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN
PINNING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES
DRIVING ANY SUCH SHOWERS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IN THIS KIND OF
PATTERN...FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH
BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE SOME RAIN FREE PERIODS.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS STILL IN THE +2C TO +4C
RANGE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOW COOLING OF OUR
AIRMASS RESULTS IN READINGS PULLING BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
FOR THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCOUNTERS A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SUBSEQUENTLY LINGERS ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE HEAVILY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD IN SPITE OF
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR/IFR FOR MOST SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY LOWER CIGS TO IFR FOR MOST.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SOUTHERN TIER. UNCERTAINTY AND EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE HAS
PRECLUDED MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF AN ADVANCING
SURFACE WARM FRONT ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIT FOR A PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING
ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVE HEIGHT AROUND 3 FEET.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011830
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
230 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAINFALL INTO TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN ON MONDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT SUNDAY...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ACROSS OUR AREA AND MORE RAIN
UPSTREAM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

THE LEADING EDGE OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND A WARM FRONT
IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM NY.

A GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP CLOSE TO WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. THE RAIN
IS BEING FORCED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295/300K
SURFACES.

THE E/SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL A BIT ALONG THE ERN
SPINE OF THE NORTHERN DACKS...AND THE NORTHERN GREENS. POPS WERE
INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S TO L50S IN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE TWO TENTHS TO HALF AN INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS THEN EXIT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING WEAK RIDGING DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
WITH OCCASIONAL PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER TIME,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 35
TO 45 RANGE AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY FROM 57 TO 63 OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY BY THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEAK AS DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SETTLES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH, LIKELY CUTTING
OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD. THESE LATEST TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS/PCPN WOULD OCCUR ON THE FRONT END OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, BEYOND WHICH DEFAULT RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD BACK
ACROSS OUR REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM. AS SUCH
I`VE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SHOWERS (40-60 PCT) IN THE
EARLIER TIME FRAMES, THEN TRENDED MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH LOWER POPS
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME WILL TELL HOW ALL THIS EVOLVES,
AND IT`S ALWAYS A BIT TRICKY WHEN DEALING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
UPPER LOWS. PER LATEST BLENDED 925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES FROM
THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS EACH DAY MAINLY IN THE 60S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. IF MORE SUN IS REALIZED BY
LATER IN THE WEEK SOME LOWER 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE. YES FOLKS,
SPRING HAS FINALLY ARRIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL IS FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR IN
PERSISTENT SHOWERS. WINDS ARE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS.

THE RAINSHIELD SHOULD NICELY EXPAND WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 3-5 SM. THE
MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SOME IFR
STRATUS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY AND NORTHERN VT IN THE 21Z/SUN TO 01Z/MON TIME FRAME BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE OR S
AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...18Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR
W/POSSIBLE IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED
FROM LOW CEILINGS. TUE - WED:GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS
WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN
NY. FRI: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011830
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
230 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAINFALL INTO TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN ON MONDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT SUNDAY...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ACROSS OUR AREA AND MORE RAIN
UPSTREAM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

THE LEADING EDGE OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND A WARM FRONT
IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM NY.

A GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP CLOSE TO WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. THE RAIN
IS BEING FORCED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295/300K
SURFACES.

THE E/SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL A BIT ALONG THE ERN
SPINE OF THE NORTHERN DACKS...AND THE NORTHERN GREENS. POPS WERE
INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S TO L50S IN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE TWO TENTHS TO HALF AN INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS THEN EXIT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING WEAK RIDGING DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
WITH OCCASIONAL PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER TIME,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 35
TO 45 RANGE AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY FROM 57 TO 63 OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY BY THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEAK AS DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SETTLES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH, LIKELY CUTTING
OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD. THESE LATEST TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS/PCPN WOULD OCCUR ON THE FRONT END OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, BEYOND WHICH DEFAULT RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD BACK
ACROSS OUR REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM. AS SUCH
I`VE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SHOWERS (40-60 PCT) IN THE
EARLIER TIME FRAMES, THEN TRENDED MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH LOWER POPS
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME WILL TELL HOW ALL THIS EVOLVES,
AND IT`S ALWAYS A BIT TRICKY WHEN DEALING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
UPPER LOWS. PER LATEST BLENDED 925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES FROM
THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS EACH DAY MAINLY IN THE 60S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. IF MORE SUN IS REALIZED BY
LATER IN THE WEEK SOME LOWER 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE. YES FOLKS,
SPRING HAS FINALLY ARRIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL IS FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR IN
PERSISTENT SHOWERS. WINDS ARE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS.

THE RAINSHIELD SHOULD NICELY EXPAND WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 3-5 SM. THE
MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SOME IFR
STRATUS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY AND NORTHERN VT IN THE 21Z/SUN TO 01Z/MON TIME FRAME BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE OR S
AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...18Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR
W/POSSIBLE IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED
FROM LOW CEILINGS. TUE - WED:GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS
WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN
NY. FRI: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KALY 011744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A BREAK IN THE STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS THE FA WILL BE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN IT WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SOME DRIZZLE. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN
SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS
60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WVS DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPRLAYERS...AND
GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND WEAK
LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY AREAS INTO
MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTANT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. AT TIMES...IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOWEST
CEILINGS AND MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL. ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...STEADY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES
NEAR A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH ALL TAF
SITES. AS WE WORK PAST 00Z MONDAY...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH...HOWEVER TAFS STILL DISPLAY BR/-DZ CONDITIONS AS LOW
CEILINGS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LINGERING BR/-DZ
CONDITIONS. AS WE MOVE PAST 12Z MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT EDGES
CLOSER TO OUR SOUTHERN REGION...A SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN SOME STEADIER RAINS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONTINUING MVFR AND
AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...CEILINGS
WITHIN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE SOUTHERLY AT
TIMES AS THE NON LINEAR FRONT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER TO OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 011744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A BREAK IN THE STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS THE FA WILL BE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN IT WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SOME DRIZZLE. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN
SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS
60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WVS DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPRLAYERS...AND
GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND WEAK
LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY AREAS INTO
MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTANT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. AT TIMES...IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOWEST
CEILINGS AND MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL. ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...STEADY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES
NEAR A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH ALL TAF
SITES. AS WE WORK PAST 00Z MONDAY...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH...HOWEVER TAFS STILL DISPLAY BR/-DZ CONDITIONS AS LOW
CEILINGS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LINGERING BR/-DZ
CONDITIONS. AS WE MOVE PAST 12Z MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT EDGES
CLOSER TO OUR SOUTHERN REGION...A SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN SOME STEADIER RAINS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONTINUING MVFR AND
AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...CEILINGS
WITHIN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE SOUTHERLY AT
TIMES AS THE NON LINEAR FRONT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER TO OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBGM 011744
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
144 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PASSING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHOWERS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SKY WILL STAY OVERCAST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1130 AM UPDATE...
THE MAIN SWATH OF RAIN IS EXITING THE EASTERN FA THIS MORNING,
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY LEFT BEHIND. GRID UPDATES REFLECT A
PERIOD OF LESS COVERAGE, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FILLING
IN LATER.

4 AM UPDATE...
BATCHES OF RAIN WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND
THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN BETWEEN.

RAIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS HAS BEEN FIGHTING ITS WAY INTO DRY
AIR...BUT IS GRADUALLY WINNING. IT HAS REACHED THE FINGER LAKES TO
TWIN TIERS...AND WILL OVERSPREAD POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK VALLEY
BY DAWN. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM LAKE ERIE THROUGH
LAKE ONTARIO TO FAR NORTHER NEW YORK. THE RAIN IS OCCURRING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH HAS DEEP MOISTURE POOLED WITH IT. WE ARE FIGURING ON
FOUR TO SEVEN TENTHS OF AN INCH TOTAL RAINFALL...MOST OF IT THROUGH
MAINLY THIS MORNING. WITH COOL STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER-FINGER LAKES
WILL MANAGE MID 50S FOR HIGHS...EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE.

BEHIND THE WAVE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SCATTERED MUCH OF
TODAY...YET LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES OF NY COULD RESULT IN MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON...PRESSING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHEAST PA THIS EVENING. MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD YIELD
A FEW ELEVATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS...AS
REFLECTED BY SHOWALTER INDICES GETTING BELOW ZERO IN MOST MODELS.
OTHER THAN THAT...ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN PRETTY SCATTERED TONIGHT.
THEN...A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL APPROACH TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY
TO CAUSE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO MOVE IN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
STRONG SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX
ALOFT...WILL CARRY THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. THIS WILL REPRESENT THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN...ANOTHER FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE...YET THE PATTERN WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE WAVE MONDAY MORNING...BEYOND THEN THE MODELS
DIFFER IN DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AS THE FRONTAL ZONE GETS
HUNG UP SOMEWHERE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. SO WHILE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET COMPARED TO MONDAY
MORNING...THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS SMALL DIFFICULT-TO-TIME WAVES MAKE
THEIR WAY THROUGH THE WSW TO SW FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...LOW 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S SOUTH. STILL A BIT SHORT OF CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH WITH LESS OF A GRADIENT WITH UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. AS FOR LOWS...UPPER 30S-MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN A FEW DEGREES UP FROM THAT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN RESPECT TO THE
XPCTD CLSD LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE
OH VLY THU DVLPS INTO A CLSD LOW WHICH DRFTS TO THE NC CST BY FRI
MRNG. THIS WILL KEEP SHWRS AND COOL AIR OVER THE AREA THRU THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY SAT MRNG...UPR LOW AS DRFTD INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC...PERHAPS AS A RESPONSE TO THE WV PUSHING INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BIT OF WEAK RDGG OVER THE FCST AREA AND
IMPROVING WX. WITH THE CORE OF THE UPR LOW MVG SOUTH OF THE
AREA...HAVE LWRD POPS A BIT AND INCRSD TEMPS AS THE COOLER AIR SHD
NOT BE OVHD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LOW OVER THE LWR GREAT LAKES IS PUSHING MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE
COOL LL AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN PLENTY
OF CLDS AND PTCHY SHWRS. XPCT LTL CHG IN CONDS AS THE SFC WRM FNT
REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR CIGS AND MVFR
VSBYS WILL CONT. AFTER DARK AS WE BECOME MORE STABLE...CIGS WILL
LWR AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CIG WITH PTCHY DRIZZLE. ATTME
XPCT VSBYS TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE. ON MON...ANOTHER WV APRCHS
WHICH WILL INCRS MIXING AND RAISE CIGS...BUT WILL ALSO BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS THRU THE END OF THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...MVFR DUE TO CLD DECKS.

TUE...VFR.

WED-THU...SHWRS MAY BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

FRI...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 011744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A BREAK IN THE STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS THE FA WILL BE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN IT WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SOME DRIZZLE. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN
SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS
60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WVS DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPRLAYERS...AND
GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND WEAK
LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY AREAS INTO
MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTANT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. AT TIMES...IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOWEST
CEILINGS AND MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL. ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...STEADY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES
NEAR A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH ALL TAF
SITES. AS WE WORK PAST 00Z MONDAY...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH...HOWEVER TAFS STILL DISPLAY BR/-DZ CONDITIONS AS LOW
CEILINGS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LINGERING BR/-DZ
CONDITIONS. AS WE MOVE PAST 12Z MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT EDGES
CLOSER TO OUR SOUTHERN REGION...A SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN SOME STEADIER RAINS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONTINUING MVFR AND
AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...CEILINGS
WITHIN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE SOUTHERLY AT
TIMES AS THE NON LINEAR FRONT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER TO OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBGM 011744
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
144 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PASSING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHOWERS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SKY WILL STAY OVERCAST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1130 AM UPDATE...
THE MAIN SWATH OF RAIN IS EXITING THE EASTERN FA THIS MORNING,
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY LEFT BEHIND. GRID UPDATES REFLECT A
PERIOD OF LESS COVERAGE, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FILLING
IN LATER.

4 AM UPDATE...
BATCHES OF RAIN WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND
THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN BETWEEN.

RAIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS HAS BEEN FIGHTING ITS WAY INTO DRY
AIR...BUT IS GRADUALLY WINNING. IT HAS REACHED THE FINGER LAKES TO
TWIN TIERS...AND WILL OVERSPREAD POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK VALLEY
BY DAWN. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM LAKE ERIE THROUGH
LAKE ONTARIO TO FAR NORTHER NEW YORK. THE RAIN IS OCCURRING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH HAS DEEP MOISTURE POOLED WITH IT. WE ARE FIGURING ON
FOUR TO SEVEN TENTHS OF AN INCH TOTAL RAINFALL...MOST OF IT THROUGH
MAINLY THIS MORNING. WITH COOL STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER-FINGER LAKES
WILL MANAGE MID 50S FOR HIGHS...EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE.

BEHIND THE WAVE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SCATTERED MUCH OF
TODAY...YET LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES OF NY COULD RESULT IN MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON...PRESSING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHEAST PA THIS EVENING. MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD YIELD
A FEW ELEVATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS...AS
REFLECTED BY SHOWALTER INDICES GETTING BELOW ZERO IN MOST MODELS.
OTHER THAN THAT...ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN PRETTY SCATTERED TONIGHT.
THEN...A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL APPROACH TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY
TO CAUSE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO MOVE IN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
STRONG SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX
ALOFT...WILL CARRY THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. THIS WILL REPRESENT THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN...ANOTHER FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE...YET THE PATTERN WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE WAVE MONDAY MORNING...BEYOND THEN THE MODELS
DIFFER IN DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AS THE FRONTAL ZONE GETS
HUNG UP SOMEWHERE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. SO WHILE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET COMPARED TO MONDAY
MORNING...THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS SMALL DIFFICULT-TO-TIME WAVES MAKE
THEIR WAY THROUGH THE WSW TO SW FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...LOW 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S SOUTH. STILL A BIT SHORT OF CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH WITH LESS OF A GRADIENT WITH UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. AS FOR LOWS...UPPER 30S-MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN A FEW DEGREES UP FROM THAT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN RESPECT TO THE
XPCTD CLSD LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE
OH VLY THU DVLPS INTO A CLSD LOW WHICH DRFTS TO THE NC CST BY FRI
MRNG. THIS WILL KEEP SHWRS AND COOL AIR OVER THE AREA THRU THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY SAT MRNG...UPR LOW AS DRFTD INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC...PERHAPS AS A RESPONSE TO THE WV PUSHING INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BIT OF WEAK RDGG OVER THE FCST AREA AND
IMPROVING WX. WITH THE CORE OF THE UPR LOW MVG SOUTH OF THE
AREA...HAVE LWRD POPS A BIT AND INCRSD TEMPS AS THE COOLER AIR SHD
NOT BE OVHD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LOW OVER THE LWR GREAT LAKES IS PUSHING MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE
COOL LL AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN PLENTY
OF CLDS AND PTCHY SHWRS. XPCT LTL CHG IN CONDS AS THE SFC WRM FNT
REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR CIGS AND MVFR
VSBYS WILL CONT. AFTER DARK AS WE BECOME MORE STABLE...CIGS WILL
LWR AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CIG WITH PTCHY DRIZZLE. ATTME
XPCT VSBYS TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE. ON MON...ANOTHER WV APRCHS
WHICH WILL INCRS MIXING AND RAISE CIGS...BUT WILL ALSO BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS THRU THE END OF THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...MVFR DUE TO CLD DECKS.

TUE...VFR.

WED-THU...SHWRS MAY BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

FRI...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011737
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
137 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAINFALL INTO TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN ON MONDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT SUNDAY...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ACROSS OUR AREA AND MORE RAIN
UPSTREAM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

THE LEADING EDGE OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND A WARM FRONT
IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM NY.

A GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP CLOSE TO WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. THE RAIN
IS BEING FORCED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295/300K
SURFACES.

THE E/SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL A BIT ALONG THE ERN
SPINE OF THE NORTHERN DACKS...AND THE NORTHERN GREENS. POPS WERE
INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S TO L50S IN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE TWO TENTHS TO HALF AN INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE BLAST OF STRONG LIFT WITH THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ACCORDING TO THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEFS BY THE EARLY EVENING...BUT RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLUMN
WILL BE SATURATED...AND DESPITE THE WEAKER LIFT OVER THE
REGION...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE CONTINUED TONIGHT. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40-45F RANGE WITH SOME U30S OVER THE HIGH
PEAKS.

MONDAY...ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS W-CENTRAL PA AND
UPSTATE NY MONDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER
TO HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE IS GOOD QG LIFT FROM THE
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE
THICKNESS ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO SUNDAY WITH 40S
TO L50S OVER NORTHERN NY AND UPSTATE VT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH A
BUBBLE HIGH BUILDING IN OVER SE CANADA AND NORTHERN NY AND VT LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL VT. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS INCLUDED TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECTED
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. AFTER
LOWS IN THE M30S TO L40S...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE U50S TO
L60S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U40S TO M50S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.

TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ERN
FLANK OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES ON HOW STRONG THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE.
INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL IS FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR IN
PERSISTENT SHOWERS. WINDS ARE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS.

THE RAINSHIELD SHOULD NICELY EXPAND WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 3-5 SM. THE
MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SOME IFR
STRATUS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY AND NORTHERN VT IN THE 21Z/SUN TO 01Z/MON TIME FRAME BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE OR S
AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...18Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR
W/POSSIBLE IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED
FROM LOW CEILINGS. TUE - WED:GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS
WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN
NY. FRI: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011728
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
128 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY
NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THEN
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AS THERE ARE 2000-3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN CT.

WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING MANY TO DEVELOP.

HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA IN WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAINLY LAY S OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ON MONDAY...WHEN THERE IS NOW ENOUGH
SUPPORT IN THE VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS TO BELIEVE IT SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT IS NOT
CERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY DURING THE DAY THAN AT NIGHT...SO
HAVE INTRODUCED FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WHEN THERE ARE EXPECTED
LULLS IN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...SHOWALTER INDICES FOR THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO GENERALLY -2 TO 2.

ON THE WHOLE GENERALLY EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH LULLS OF MAINLY PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING...AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS
GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOTE...IF THE WARM FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA...THEN HIGHS COULD END UP 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS FROM
CENTRAL LONG ISLAND ON W-NW INTO NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM
950-925 HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OFF A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS
USED...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL
DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW BEING FORECAST...AS THE HANDLING OF THIS TYPE
OF FEATURE IS NOT THE GREATEST STRENGTH OF CURRENT NWP MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND REMAINS JUST SOUTH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES NEARBY TONIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE IS FORECAST. AT TIMES IT WILL BE DRY.

LOW CLOUDS...IFR OR LOW END MVFR...CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE AS WELL. IN FACT...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
THUNDER IN THE MORNING. TOO LOW THOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE
FORECASTS.

WINDS FROM THE E/SE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BACK TO THE NE/E TONIGHT.
THE WIND FORECAST ON MONDAY REMAIN UNCERTAIN...DEPENDING ON
EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT WINDS TO TURN TOWARD THE E/SE IN THE MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON...IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH END MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN VFR
IS POSSIBLE WITH A PASSING SHOWER.
.MON NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN MORE RAIN LATE.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.TUE NIGHT-FRI...SUB-VFR AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/LOW
CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SEAS UP TO RIGHT AROUND 5 FT. WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS PROBABLY
HOVER AROUND 5 FT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT DUE TO SWELL.
WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SCA ON THE OCEAN UNCHANGED...LASTING FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE OTHER WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN SOUND OR BAYS...BUT NOT WORTH CONSIDERATION OF A SCA.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT SEAS COULD CLIMB TO
5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AT TIMES DUE TO A SWELL. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. WHILE WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS TIME...SWELL MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 5 FT...PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
1/4-1/2 AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WOULD BE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LOCATION/TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011728
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
128 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY
NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THEN
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AS THERE ARE 2000-3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN CT.

WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING MANY TO DEVELOP.

HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA IN WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAINLY LAY S OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ON MONDAY...WHEN THERE IS NOW ENOUGH
SUPPORT IN THE VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS TO BELIEVE IT SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT IS NOT
CERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY DURING THE DAY THAN AT NIGHT...SO
HAVE INTRODUCED FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WHEN THERE ARE EXPECTED
LULLS IN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...SHOWALTER INDICES FOR THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO GENERALLY -2 TO 2.

ON THE WHOLE GENERALLY EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH LULLS OF MAINLY PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING...AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS
GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOTE...IF THE WARM FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA...THEN HIGHS COULD END UP 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS FROM
CENTRAL LONG ISLAND ON W-NW INTO NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM
950-925 HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OFF A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS
USED...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL
DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW BEING FORECAST...AS THE HANDLING OF THIS TYPE
OF FEATURE IS NOT THE GREATEST STRENGTH OF CURRENT NWP MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND REMAINS JUST SOUTH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES NEARBY TONIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE IS FORECAST. AT TIMES IT WILL BE DRY.

LOW CLOUDS...IFR OR LOW END MVFR...CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE AS WELL. IN FACT...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
THUNDER IN THE MORNING. TOO LOW THOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE
FORECASTS.

WINDS FROM THE E/SE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BACK TO THE NE/E TONIGHT.
THE WIND FORECAST ON MONDAY REMAIN UNCERTAIN...DEPENDING ON
EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT WINDS TO TURN TOWARD THE E/SE IN THE MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON...IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH END MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN VFR
IS POSSIBLE WITH A PASSING SHOWER.
.MON NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN MORE RAIN LATE.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.TUE NIGHT-FRI...SUB-VFR AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/LOW
CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SEAS UP TO RIGHT AROUND 5 FT. WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS PROBABLY
HOVER AROUND 5 FT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT DUE TO SWELL.
WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SCA ON THE OCEAN UNCHANGED...LASTING FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE OTHER WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN SOUND OR BAYS...BUT NOT WORTH CONSIDERATION OF A SCA.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT SEAS COULD CLIMB TO
5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AT TIMES DUE TO A SWELL. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. WHILE WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS TIME...SWELL MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 5 FT...PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
1/4-1/2 AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WOULD BE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LOCATION/TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KBUF 011728
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
128 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE RAIN ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING AS
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT RETREATS...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AS A SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF A PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX. HAVE INCLUDED CAT POPS
ACROSS MOST MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE THE
RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY ARRIVE BY 12Z MONDAY. WHILE LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH THIS SECOND WAVE OF RAIN...THE 00Z
4KM NAM AND NSSL-WRF BOTH SHOW A SIGNATURE OF A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX TRACKING ALONG THE NY/PA LINE. CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS FOR A FEATURE SUCH AS AN
MCV 24 HOURS OUT BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN
FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE 40S
TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A WET START TO THE WORK WEEK AS A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSES NEW YORK STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WITH THE ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL CENTER AND SURFACE TROUGHING
ORIENTED SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...STRONG LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY SEEING AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE SHORTWAVE
RAPIDLY TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS THE PICTURE...LINGERING MOISTURE AND
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION
SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EVEN AS THINGS DRY OUT. THE CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FILL AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE MAY
INTERACT WITH LIMITED LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TO SPARK A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ANY CLEAR FOCUSED LIFT...WILL STICK WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS. LESS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
850MB TEMPS SHOULD PRODUCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN A
LITTLE CLOSER TO CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S WITH READINGS AROUND 60 ION THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD YIELD
COMPARATIVELY WARMER READINGS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME OVER NORTH AMERICA
BECOMES SHARPLY MERIDIONAL. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN SHIELD WILL
PROCEED TO CARVE A SHARP TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERING JUST OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DEPRIVE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK OF
DEEPER MOISTURE...SO AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL BE
SCATTERED AT BEST. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY LOOKS MORE PROMISING IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF INTO A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS
NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGHING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS AND A MID-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INCREASING
EASTERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS COME IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL NO
LONGER APPEARS TO BE A CONCERN.

COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCOUNTERS A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SUBSEQUENTLY LINGERS ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE HEAVILY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD IN SPITE OF
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR/IFR FOR MOST SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY LOWER CIGS TO IFR FOR MOST.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SOUTHERN TIER. UNCERTAINTY AND EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE HAS
PRECLUDED MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRESH EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 20 KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD
IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/TMA
NEAR TERM...SMITH/TMA
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH/TMA
MARINE...SMITH/TMA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011726
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...A STRATOFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS FROM ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS 60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THIER TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROFING PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS
DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT 500 HPA IN
THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS SETTLED JUST
WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION REMAINS ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS THE
RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPRLAYERS...AND
GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND WEAK
LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY AREAS INTO
MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THIER SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTANT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. AT TIMES...IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOWEST
CEILINGS AND MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL. ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...STEADY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES
NEAR A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH ALL TAF
SITES. AS WE WORK PAST 00Z MONDAY...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH...HOWEVER TAFS STILL DISPLAY BR/-DZ CONDITIONS AS LOW
CEILINGS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LINGERING BR/-DZ
CONDITIONS. AS WE MOVE PAST 12Z MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT EDGES
CLOSER TO OUR SOUTHERN REGION...A SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN SOME STEADIER RAINS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONTINUING MVFR AND
AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...CEILINGS
WITHIN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE SOUTHERLY AT
TIMES AS THE NON LINEAR FRONT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER TO OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 011725
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...A STRATOFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS FROM ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS 60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THIER TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROFING PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS
DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT 500 HPA IN
THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS SETTLED JUST
WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION REMAINS ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS THE
RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPRLAYERS...AND
GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND WEAK
LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY AREAS INTO
MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THIER SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTANT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 011725
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...A STRATOFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS FROM ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS 60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THIER TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROFING PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS
DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT 500 HPA IN
THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS SETTLED JUST
WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION REMAINS ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS THE
RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPRLAYERS...AND
GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND WEAK
LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY AREAS INTO
MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THIER SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTANT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011701
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
101 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY
NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THEN
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AS THERE ARE 2000-3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN CT.

WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING MANY TO DEVELOP.

HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA IN WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAINLY LAY S OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ON MONDAY...WHEN THERE IS NOW ENOUGH
SUPPORT IN THE VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS TO BELIEVE IT SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT IS NOT
CERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY DURING THE DAY THAN AT NIGHT...SO
HAVE INTRODUCED FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WHEN THERE ARE EXPECTED
LULLS IN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...SHOWALTER INDICES FOR THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO GENERALLY -2 TO 2.

ON THE WHOLE GENERALLY EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH LULLS OF MAINLY PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING...AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS
GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOTE...IF THE WARM FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA...THEN HIGHS COULD END UP 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS FROM
CENTRAL LONG ISLAND ON W-NW INTO NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM
950-925 HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OFF A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS
USED...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL
DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW BEING FORECAST...AS THE HANDLING OF THIS TYPE
OF FEATURE IS NOT THE GREATEST STRENGTH OF CURRENT NWP MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT.

LIGHT ESE WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AT MOST TERMINALS
AS THEY BACK TO THE EAST.

A FEW GUSTS 16-19 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS TO
START...EVENTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR AFTER ABOUT 18Z...FROM WEST TO
EAST.

RAIN BECOMES LIGHT AND SPOTTY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. FOG IN THE MORNING.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WED-THU...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SEAS UP TO RIGHT AROUND 5 FT. WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS PROBABLY
HOVER AROUND 5 FT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT DUE TO SWELL.
WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SCA ON THE OCEAN UNCHANGED...LASTING FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE OTHER WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN SOUND OR BAYS...BUT NOT WORTH CONSIDERATION OF A SCA.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT SEAS COULD CLIMB TO
5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AT TIMES DUE TO A SWELL. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. WHILE WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS TIME...SWELL MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 5 FT...PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
1/4-1/2 AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WOULD BE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LOCATION/TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011701
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
101 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY
NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THEN
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AS THERE ARE 2000-3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN CT.

WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING MANY TO DEVELOP.

HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA IN WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAINLY LAY S OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ON MONDAY...WHEN THERE IS NOW ENOUGH
SUPPORT IN THE VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS TO BELIEVE IT SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT IS NOT
CERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY DURING THE DAY THAN AT NIGHT...SO
HAVE INTRODUCED FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WHEN THERE ARE EXPECTED
LULLS IN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...SHOWALTER INDICES FOR THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO GENERALLY -2 TO 2.

ON THE WHOLE GENERALLY EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH LULLS OF MAINLY PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING...AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS
GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOTE...IF THE WARM FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA...THEN HIGHS COULD END UP 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS FROM
CENTRAL LONG ISLAND ON W-NW INTO NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM
950-925 HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OFF A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS
USED...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL
DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW BEING FORECAST...AS THE HANDLING OF THIS TYPE
OF FEATURE IS NOT THE GREATEST STRENGTH OF CURRENT NWP MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT.

LIGHT ESE WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AT MOST TERMINALS
AS THEY BACK TO THE EAST.

A FEW GUSTS 16-19 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS TO
START...EVENTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR AFTER ABOUT 18Z...FROM WEST TO
EAST.

RAIN BECOMES LIGHT AND SPOTTY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. FOG IN THE MORNING.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WED-THU...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SEAS UP TO RIGHT AROUND 5 FT. WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS PROBABLY
HOVER AROUND 5 FT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT DUE TO SWELL.
WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SCA ON THE OCEAN UNCHANGED...LASTING FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE OTHER WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN SOUND OR BAYS...BUT NOT WORTH CONSIDERATION OF A SCA.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT SEAS COULD CLIMB TO
5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AT TIMES DUE TO A SWELL. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. WHILE WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS TIME...SWELL MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 5 FT...PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
1/4-1/2 AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WOULD BE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LOCATION/TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KALY 011621
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1221 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS FROM ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS 60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED AND THE TIMING OF
SYSTEM UNCERTAIN.

AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES COME INTO PLAY THE
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBGM 011534
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1134 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PASSING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHOWERS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SKY WILL STAY OVERCAST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1130 AM UPDATE...
THE MAIN SWATH OF RAIN IS EXITING THE EASTERN FA THIS MORNING,
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY LEFT BEHIND. GRID UPDATES REFLECT A
PERIOD OF LESS COVERAGE, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FILLING
IN LATER.

4 AM UPDATE...
BATCHES OF RAIN WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND
THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN BETWEEN.

RAIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS HAS BEEN FIGHTING ITS WAY INTO DRY
AIR...BUT IS GRADUALLY WINNING. IT HAS REACHED THE FINGER LAKES TO
TWIN TIERS...AND WILL OVERSPREAD POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK VALLEY
BY DAWN. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM LAKE ERIE THROUGH
LAKE ONTARIO TO FAR NORTHER NEW YORK. THE RAIN IS OCCURRING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH HAS DEEP MOISTURE POOLED WITH IT. WE ARE FIGURING ON
FOUR TO SEVEN TENTHS OF AN INCH TOTAL RAINFALL...MOST OF IT THROUGH
MAINLY THIS MORNING. WITH COOL STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER-FINGER LAKES
WILL MANAGE MID 50S FOR HIGHS...EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE.

BEHIND THE WAVE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SCATTERED MUCH OF
TODAY...YET LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES OF NY COULD RESULT IN MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON...PRESSING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHEAST PA THIS EVENING. MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD YIELD
A FEW ELEVATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS...AS
REFLECTED BY SHOWALTER INDICES GETTING BELOW ZERO IN MOST MODELS.
OTHER THAN THAT...ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN PRETTY SCATTERED TONIGHT.
THEN...A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL APPROACH TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY
TO CAUSE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO MOVE IN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
STRONG SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX
ALOFT...WILL CARRY THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. THIS WILL REPRESENT THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN...ANOTHER FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE...YET THE PATTERN WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE WAVE MONDAY MORNING...BEYOND THEN THE MODELS
DIFFER IN DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AS THE FRONTAL ZONE GETS
HUNG UP SOMEWHERE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. SO WHILE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET COMPARED TO MONDAY
MORNING...THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS SMALL DIFFICULT-TO-TIME WAVES MAKE
THEIR WAY THROUGH THE WSW TO SW FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...LOW 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S SOUTH. STILL A BIT SHORT OF CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH WITH LESS OF A GRADIENT WITH UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. AS FOR LOWS...UPPER 30S-MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN A FEW DEGREES UP FROM THAT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 AM SUNDAY UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK, SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEASTERN STATES, BASICALLY ON THE
FORWARD SIDE OF A BIG OMEGA BLOCK. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
POSITIONING/AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION, ITS
DEVELOPMENT SEEMS TO BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY.

AS A RESULT OF THE WHAT WAS JUST DESCRIBED ABOVE, WE`LL CONTINUE
WITH A FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC FORECAST (MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES, CHANCE-
LIKELY PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS, AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MAY) RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH AN
"ALL-DAY WASHOUT" WOULD BE UNLIKELY ON ANY GIVEN DAY, AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN EACH DAY LOOKS LIKE A SOLID BET
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS (MAINLY MVFR-IFR) CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD, AT MOST SITES, AS LOWER CEILINGS AND
PERIODS OF RAIN PREVAIL.

THE EXCEPTION TO THE ABOVE WILL BE THIS MORNING AT KSYR AND KAVP,
WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES WITH A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEP
VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS GOING A BIT LONGER. EVEN AT THESE TWO
SITES, THOUGH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

AT KBGM AND KITH, STEADIER/HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH 14-16Z, COULD
PRODUCE PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS. AT KBGM, PERSISTENT IFR CEILING
BASES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. KITH WILL PROBABLY
DETERIORATE TO IFR AGAIN IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY, AS STEADIER
RAIN RE-DEVELOPS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. AT THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT, SPARSE COVERAGE AND
UNCERTAIN DEVELOPMENT PRECLUDE THEIR MENTION IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS.

AS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS, THEY WILL BE S-SE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, AVERAGING 8-12 KT. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
AT KAVP, AND UP TO 20-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KSYR,
KITH, AND KBGM.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN LOWER CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TUE...VFR IS EXPECTED.

WED-THU...MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE PROBABLE IN LOWER CEILINGS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011432
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1032 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAINFALL INTO TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN ON MONDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1029 AM EDT SUNDAY...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ACROSS OUR AREA AND MORE RAIN
UPSTREAM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

THE LEADING EDGE OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND A WARM FRONT
IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM NY.

A GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP CLOSE TO WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. THE RAIN
IS BEING FORCED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295/300K SFCS.

THE E/SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL A BIT ALONG THE ERN
SPINE OF THE NRN DACKS...AND THE NRN GREENS. POPS WERE INCREASED
TO CATEGORICAL VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE TWO TENTHS TO HALF AN INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE BLAST OF STRONG LIFT WITH THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ACCORDING TO THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEFS BY THE EARLY EVENING...BUT RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLUMN
WILL BE SATURATED...AND DESPITE THE WEAKER LIFT OVER THE
REGION...HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE CONTINUED TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40-45F RANGE WITH SOME U30S OVER THE HIGH
PEAKS.

MONDAY...ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND
UPSTATE NY MONDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL IMPACT THE FCST AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE IS GOOD QG LIFT FROM THE
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE
THICKENESS ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO SUNDAY WITH 40S
TO L50S OVER NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH A
BUBBLE HIGH BUILDING IN OVER SE CANADA AND NRN NY AND VT LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS OVER CNTRL VT. A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS WAS INCLUDED TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECTED PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. AFTER LOWS IN THE
M30S TO L40S...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE U50S TO L60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U40S TO M50S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.

TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ERN
FLANK OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE MDEIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES ON HOW STRONG THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE.
INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO WARM ADVECTION
RAINFALL AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS BTWN 12Z-16Z ACROSS NRN NY AND N-CNTRL VT IN STRATIFORM
RAINSHIELD. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO 12Z...BUT
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS BY NOONTIME.

THE RAINSHIELD SHOULD NICELY EXPAND WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VSBYS BTWN 3-5 SM. THE MOISTURE
WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SOME IFR STRATUS AND
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY AND NRN VT IN THE
21Z/SUN TO 01Z/MON TIME FRAME BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE OR S AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR W/PSBL IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE.
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS.
TUE - WED:GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON.
THU:MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/SISSON
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011429
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1029 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY
NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THEN
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS
BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS.

PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
SHOWALTER INDICES FALL DOWN TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2 THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MAINLY THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ELEVATED STORMS.

HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA IN WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAINLY LAY S OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ON MONDAY...WHEN THERE IS NOW ENOUGH
SUPPORT IN THE VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS TO BELIEVE IT SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT IS NOT
CERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY DURING THE DAY THAN AT NIGHT...SO
HAVE INTRODUCED FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WHEN THERE ARE EXPECTED
LULLS IN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...SHOWALTER INDICES FOR THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO GENERALLY -2 TO 2.

ON THE WHOLE GENERALLY EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH LULLS OF MAINLY PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING...AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS
GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOTE...IF THE WARM FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA...THEN HIGHS COULD END UP 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS FROM
CENTRAL LONG ISLAND ON W-NW INTO NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM
950-925 HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OFF A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS
USED...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL
DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW BEING FORECAST...AS THE HANDLING OF THIS TYPE
OF FEATURE IS NOT THE GREATEST STRENGTH OF CURRENT NWP MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT.

LIGHT ESE WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AT MOST TERMINALS
AS THEY BACK TO THE EAST.

A FEW GUSTS 16-19 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS TO
START...EVENTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR AFTER ABOUT 18Z...FROM WEST TO
EAST.

RAIN BECOMES LIGHT AND SPOTTY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. FOG IN THE MORNING.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WED-THU...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SEAS UP TO RIGHT AROUND 5 FT. WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS PROBABLY
HOVER AROUND 5 FT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT DUE TO SWELL.
WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SCA ON THE OCEAN UNCHANGED...LASTING FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE OTHER WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN SOUND OR BAYS...BUT NOT WORTH CONSIDERATION OF A SCA.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT SEAS COULD CLIMB TO
5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AT TIMES DUE TO A SWELL. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. WHILE WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS TIME...SWELL MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 5 FT...PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
1/4-1/2 AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WOULD BE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LOCATION/TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KBUF 011420
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1020 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD
DIMINISH MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADARS ARE SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS OCCURRING AS
MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTH OVER AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT
SHIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS FIRST ROUND
OF RAIN IS NOW CLEARING THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AT 11Z WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION NEAR
LUNCHTIME. TOTAL RAINFALL LOOKING LIKE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING IN THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

WHILE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE
NY/PA LINE...ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT CONTRIBUTING TO CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MESO-MODELS INDICATE THE BEST INSTABILITY IN THE FORM
OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
7C/KM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED TO
HIGHLIGHT A LIKELY AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRIGGER
FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY BE A WEAK LOW TRACKING TOWARD NORTHEAST PA.
BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REACH 40-50KTS HERE WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
WEAKEN/DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAX OUT IN THE M/U50S FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH U40S/L50S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AFTER
STORMS HAVE WEAKENED. HAVE HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS BECAUSE WE CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SCATTERED/STRAY SHOWERS IN MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AS A SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF A PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX. HAVE INCLUDED CAT POPS
ACROSS MOST MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE THE
RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY ARRIVE BY 12Z MONDAY. WHILE LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH THIS SECOND WAVE OF RAIN...THE 00Z 4KM
NAM AND NSSL-WRF BOTH SHOW A SIGNATURE OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX TRACKING ALONG THE NY/PA LINE. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS FOR A FEATURE SUCH AS AN MCV 24
HOURS OUT BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN FOLLOWING MODEL
RUNS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE 40S TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A WET START TO THE WORK WEEK AS A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSES NEW YORK STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WITH THE ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL CENTER AND SURFACE TROUGHING
ORIENTED SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...STRONG LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY SEEING AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE SHORTWAVE
RAPIDLY TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS THE PICTURE...LINGERING MOISTURE AND
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION
SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EVEN AS THINGS DRY OUT. THE CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FILL AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE MAY
INTERACT WITH LIMITED LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TO SPARK A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ANY CLEAR FOCUSED LIFT...WILL STICK WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS. LESS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
850MB TEMPS SHOULD PRODUCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN A
LITTLE CLOSER TO CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S WITH READINGS AROUND 60 ION THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD YIELD
COMPARATIVELY WARMER READINGS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME OVER NORTH AMERICA
BECOMES SHARPLY MERIDIONAL. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN SHIELD WILL
PROCEED TO CARVE A SHARP TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERING JUST OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DEPRIVE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK OF
DEEPER MOISTURE...SO AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL BE
SCATTERED AT BEST. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY LOOKS MORE PROMISING IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF INTO A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS
NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGHING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS AND A MID-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INCREASING
EASTERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS COME IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL NO
LONGER APPEARS TO BE A CONCERN.

COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCOUNTERS A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SUBSEQUENTLY LINGERS ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE HEAVILY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD IN SPITE OF
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD A BAND OF STEADY RAIN NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN A MIX OF
LOWER END MVFR FOR MOST SITES WITH IFR/LIFR ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE BACK EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK THROUGH NOON WITH SOME
DRY TIME OUTSIDE OF STRAY/SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY TOWARD THE
NY/PA BORDER AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS NEAR A STALLED WARM FRONT. THIS
MAY IMPACT KJHW BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
VCTS IN THE TAF.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
LIKELY LOWER CIGS TO IFR FOR MOST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 20
KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATER THIS MORNING...PROMPTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/TMA
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH/TMA
MARINE...SMITH/TMA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011332
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
932 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND PASSES
SOUTH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE DAMP...COOL...AND WET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WITH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO SATURATE WITH
LIGHT RAIN FALLING IN MOST ARES.

THIS UPDATE HAS ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THE RAINFALL DUE TO THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH. WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS ARE USED FROM
ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED AND THE TIMING OF
SYSTEM UNCERTAIN.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.

AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES COME INTO PLAY THE
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011332
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
932 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND PASSES
SOUTH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE DAMP...COOL...AND WET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WITH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO SATURATE WITH
LIGHT RAIN FALLING IN MOST ARES.

THIS UPDATE HAS ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THE RAINFALL DUE TO THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH. WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS ARE USED FROM
ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED AND THE TIMING OF
SYSTEM UNCERTAIN.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.

AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES COME INTO PLAY THE
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011133
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAINFALL INTO TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN ON MONDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SUNDAY...RAIN IS MOVING IN AND SHOULD BE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION BETWEEN 8 A.M. AND NOON. IT WILL BE
CLOUDY AND COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

THE LEADING EDGE OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND A WARM FRONT
IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM NY.

A GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP CLOSE TO WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. THE RAIN IS
BEING FORCED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295/300K SFCS.

THE E/SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL A BIT ALONG THE ERN
SPINE OF THE NRN DACKS...AND THE NRN GREENS. POPS WERE INCREASED
TO CATEGORICAL VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE TWO TENTHS TO HALF AN INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE BLAST OF STRONG LIFT WITH THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ACCORDING TO THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEFS BY THE EARLY EVENING...BUT RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLUMN
WILL BE SATURATED...AND DESPITE THE WEAKER LIFT OVER THE
REGION...HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE CONTINUED TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40-45F RANGE WITH SOME U30S OVER THE HIGH
PEAKS.

MONDAY...ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND
UPSTATE NY MONDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL IMPACT THE FCST AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE IS GOOD QG LIFT FROM THE
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE
THICKENESS ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO SUNDAY WITH 40S
TO L50S OVER NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH A
BUBBLE HIGH BUILDING IN OVER SE CANADA AND NRN NY AND VT LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS OVER CNTRL VT. A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS WAS INCLUDED TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECTED PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. AFTER LOWS IN THE
M30S TO L40S...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE U50S TO L60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U40S TO M50S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.

TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ERN
FLANK OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE MDEIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES ON HOW STRONG THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE.
INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO WARM ADVECTION
RAINFALL AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS BTWN 12Z-16Z ACROSS NRN NY AND N-CNTRL VT IN STRATIFORM
RAINSHIELD. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO 12Z...BUT
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS BY NOONTIME.

THE RAINSHIELD SHOULD NICELY EXPAND WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VSBYS BTWN 3-5 SM. THE MOISTURE
WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SOME IFR STRATUS AND
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY AND NRN VT IN THE
21Z/SUN TO 01Z/MON TIME FRAME BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE OR S AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR W/PSBL IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE.
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS.
TUE - WED:GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON.
THU:MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WASULA/SISSON
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WASULA/SISSON




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011129
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
729 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY
NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THEN
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE TODAY IN RESPONSE
TO OVER RUNNING/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. SHOWALTER INDICES FALL
DOWN TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2 THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SW 2/5 OF
THE CWA...SO HAVE ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY ELEVATED STORMS.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED FOR HIGHS FOR TODAY. DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE RAINFALL
AND ONSHORE FLOW...HIGHS SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA IN WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAINLY LAY S OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ON MONDAY...WHEN THERE IS NOW ENOUGH
SUPPORT IN THE VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS TO BELIEVE IT SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT IS NOT
CERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY DURING THE DAY THAN AT NIGHT...SO
HAVE INTRODUCED FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WHEN THERE ARE EXPECTED
LULLS IN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...SHOWALTER INDICES FOR THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO GENERALLY -2 TO 2.

ON THE WHOLE GENERALLY EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH LULLS OF MAINLY PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING...AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS
GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOTE...IF THE WARM FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA...THEN HIGHS COULD END UP 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS FROM
CENTRAL LONG ISLAND ON W-NW INTO NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM
950-925 HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OFF A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS
USED...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL
DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW BEING FORECAST...AS THE HANDLING OF THIS TYPE
OF FEATURE IS NOT THE GREATEST STRENGTH OF CURRENT NWP MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST DRIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

LIGHT SE WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS ESE THIS MORNING...THEN E THIS
AFTERNOON AS THEY SLOWLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AT MOST TERMINALS.
A FEW GUSTS 16-19 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN DEVELOPS FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING. VFR
CONDS TO START...EVENTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR AFTER ABOUT 18Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. FOG IN THE MORNING.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WED-THU...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SEAS UP TO RIGHT AROUND 5 FT. WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS PROBABLY
HOVER AROUND 5 FT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT DUE TO SWELL.
WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SCA ON THE OCEAN UNCHANGED...LASTING FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE OTHER WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN SOUND OR BAYS...BUT NOT WORTH CONSIDERATION OF A SCA.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT SEAS COULD CLIMB TO
5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AT TIMES DUE TO A SWELL. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. WHILE WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS TIME...SWELL MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 5 FT...PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
1/4-1/2 AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WOULD BE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LOCATION/TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KBGM 011101
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
701 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PASSING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHOWERS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SKY WILL STAY OVERCAST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
BATCHES OF RAIN WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND
THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN BETWEEN.

RAIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS HAS BEEN FIGHTING ITS WAY INTO DRY
AIR...BUT IS GRADUALLY WINNING. IT HAS REACHED THE FINGER LAKES TO
TWIN TIERS...AND WILL OVERSPREAD POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK VALLEY
BY DAWN. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM LAKE ERIE THROUGH
LAKE ONTARIO TO FAR NORTHER NEW YORK. THE RAIN IS OCCURRING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH HAS DEEP MOISTURE POOLED WITH IT. WE ARE FIGURING ON
FOUR TO SEVEN TENTHS OF AN INCH TOTAL RAINFALL...MOST OF IT THROUGH
MAINLY THIS MORNING. WITH COOL STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER-FINGER LAKES
WILL MANAGE MID 50S FOR HIGHS...EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE.

BEHIND THE WAVE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SCATTERED MUCH OF
TODAY...YET LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES OF NY COULD RESULT IN MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON...PRESSING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHEAST PA THIS EVENING. MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD YIELD
A FEW ELEVATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS...AS
REFLECTED BY SHOWALTER INDICES GETTING BELOW ZERO IN MOST MODELS.
OTHER THAN THAT...ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN PRETTY SCATTERED TONIGHT.
THEN...A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL APPROACH TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY
TO CAUSE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO MOVE IN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
STRONG SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX
ALOFT...WILL CARRY THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. THIS WILL REPRESENT THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN...ANOTHER FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE...YET THE PATTERN WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE WAVE MONDAY MORNING...BEYOND THEN THE MODELS
DIFFER IN DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AS THE FRONTAL ZONE GETS
HUNG UP SOMEWHERE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. SO WHILE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET COMPARED TO MONDAY
MORNING...THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS SMALL DIFFICULT-TO-TIME WAVES MAKE
THEIR WAY THROUGH THE WSW TO SW FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...LOW 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S SOUTH. STILL A BIT SHORT OF CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH WITH LESS OF A GRADIENT WITH UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. AS FOR LOWS...UPPER 30S-MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN A FEW DEGREES UP FROM THAT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 AM SUNDAY UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK, SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEASTERN STATES, BASICALLY ON THE
FORWARD SIDE OF A BIG OMEGA BLOCK. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
POSITIONING/AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION, ITS
DEVELOPMENT SEEMS TO BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY.

AS A RESULT OF THE WHAT WAS JUST DESCRIBED ABOVE, WE`LL CONTINUE
WITH A FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC FORECAST (MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES, CHANCE-
LIKELY PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS, AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MAY) RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH AN
"ALL-DAY WASHOUT" WOULD BE UNLIKELY ON ANY GIVEN DAY, AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN EACH DAY LOOKS LIKE A SOLID BET
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS (MAINLY MVFR-IFR) CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD, AT MOST SITES, AS LOWER CEILINGS AND
PERIODS OF RAIN PREVAIL.

THE EXCEPTION TO THE ABOVE WILL BE THIS MORNING AT KSYR AND KAVP,
WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES WITH A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEP
VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS GOING A BIT LONGER. EVEN AT THESE TWO
SITES, THOUGH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

AT KBGM AND KITH, STEADIER/HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH 14-16Z, COULD
PRODUCE PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS. AT KBGM, PERSISTENT IFR CEILING
BASES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. KITH WILL PROBABLY
DETERIORATE TO IFR AGAIN IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY, AS STEADIER
RAIN RE-DEVELOPS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. AT THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT, SPARSE COVERAGE AND
UNCERTAIN DEVELOPMENT PRECLUDE THEIR MENTION IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS.

AS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS, THEY WILL BE S-SE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, AVERAGING 8-12 KT. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
AT KAVP, AND UP TO 20-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KSYR,
KITH, AND KBGM.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN LOWER CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TUE...VFR IS EXPECTED.

WED-THU...MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE PROBABLE IN LOWER CEILINGS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBUF 011056
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
656 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADARS ARE SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS OCCURRING AS
MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTH OVER AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT
SHIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS FIRST ROUND
OF RAIN IS NOW CLEARING THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AT 11Z WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION NEAR
LUNCHTIME. TOTAL RAINFALL LOOKING LIKE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING IN THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

WHILE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE
NY/PA LINE...ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT CONTRIBUTING TO CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MESO-MODELS INDICATE THE BEST INSTABILITY IN THE FORM
OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
7C/KM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED TO
HIGHLIGHT A LIKELY AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRIGGER
FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY BE A WEAK LOW TRACKING TOWARD NORTHEAST PA.
BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REACH 40-50KTS HERE WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
WEAKEN/DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAX OUT IN THE M/U50S FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH U40S/L50S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AFTER
STORMS HAVE WEAKENED. HAVE HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS BECAUSE WE CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SCATTERED/STRAY SHOWERS IN MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AS A SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF A PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX. HAVE INCLUDED CAT POPS
ACROSS MOST MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE THE
RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY ARRIVE BY 12Z MONDAY. WHILE LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH THIS SECOND WAVE OF RAIN...THE 00Z 4KM
NAM AND NSSL-WRF BOTH SHOW A SIGNATURE OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX TRACKING ALONG THE NY/PA LINE. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS FOR A FEATURE SUCH AS AN MCV 24
HOURS OUT BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN FOLLOWING MODEL
RUNS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE 40S TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A WET START TO THE WORK WEEK AS A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSES NEW YORK STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WITH THE ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL CENTER AND SURFACE TROUGHING
ORIENTED SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...STRONG LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY SEEING AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE SHORTWAVE
RAPIDLY TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS THE PICTURE...LINGERING MOISTURE AND
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION
SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EVEN AS THINGS DRY OUT. THE CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FILL AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE MAY
INTERACT WITH LIMITED LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TO SPARK A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ANY CLEAR FOCUSED LIFT...WILL STICK WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS. LESS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
850MB TEMPS SHOULD PRODUCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN A
LITTLE CLOSER TO CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S WITH READINGS AROUND 60 ION THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD YIELD
COMPARATIVELY WARMER READINGS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME OVER NORTH AMERICA
BECOMES SHARPLY MERIDIONAL. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN SHIELD WILL
PROCEED TO CARVE A SHARP TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERING JUST OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DEPRIVE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK OF
DEEPER MOISTURE...SO AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL BE
SCATTERED AT BEST. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY LOOKS MORE PROMISING IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF INTO A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS
NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGHING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS AND A MID-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INCREASING
EASTERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS COME IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL NO
LONGER APPEARS TO BE A CONCERN.

COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCOUNTERS A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SUBSEQUENTLY LINGERS ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE HEAVILY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD IN SPITE OF
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD A BAND OF STEADY RAIN NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED TO A
MIX OF LOWER END OF MVFR FOR MOST SITES WITH IFR/LIFR ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE BACK EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING WITH SOME DRY TIME OUTSIDE OF
STRAY/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY TOWARD THE
NY/PA BORDER AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS NEAR A STALLED WARM FRONT. THIS
MAY IMPACT KJHW BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
VCTS IN THE TAF.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
LIKELY LOWER CIGS TO IFR FOR MOST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 20
KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATER THIS MORNING...PROMPTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH




000
FXUS61 KALY 011055
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND PASSES
SOUTH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE DAMP...COOL...AND WET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WITH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT...A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS W-CNTRL NY AND PA INTO ERN NY THIS MORNING. THE COLUMN
CONTINUES TO SATURATE WITH LIGHT RAIN ALREADY REACHING THE W-CNTRL
MOHAWK VALLEY...WRN DACKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS BASED ON THE LATEST
REGIONAL AND KENX RADARS...AND SFC OBSERVATIONS.

THIS UPDATE HAS ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THE RAINFALL DUE TO THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH. WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS ARE USED FROM
ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON
THE LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED AND THE TIMING OF
SYSTEM UNCERTAIN.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.

AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES COME INTO PLAY THE
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011032
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
632 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY
NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THEN
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE TODAY IN RESPONSE
TO OVER RUNNING/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. SHOWALTER INDICES FALL
DOWN TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2 THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SW 2/5 OF
THE CWA...SO HAVE ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY ELEVATED STORMS.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED FOR HIGHS FOR TODAY. DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE RAINFALL
AND ONSHORE FLOW...HIGHS SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA IN WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAINLY LAY S OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ON MONDAY...WHEN THERE IS NOW ENOUGH
SUPPORT IN THE VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS TO BELIEVE IT SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT IS NOT
CERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY DURING THE DAY THAN AT NIGHT...SO
HAVE INTRODUCED FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WHEN THERE ARE EXPECTED
LULLS IN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...SHOWALTER INDICES FOR THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO GENERALLY -2 TO 2.

ON THE WHOLE GENERALLY EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH LULLS OF MAINLY PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING...AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS
GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOTE...IF THE WARM FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA...THEN HIGHS COULD END UP 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS FROM
CENTRAL LONG ISLAND ON W-NW INTO NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM
950-925 HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OFF A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS
USED...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL
DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW BEING FORECAST...AS THE HANDLING OF THIS TYPE
OF FEATURE IS NOT THE GREATEST STRENGTH OF CURRENT NWP MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST DRIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

LIGHT SE WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BACK TOWARDS ESE THIS
MORNING...THEN E THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY SLOWLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KT AT MOST TERMINALS. A FEW GUSTS 15-18 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST-EAST BETWEEN 11Z-14Z ALTHOUGH A SHOWER
OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THEN. VFR CONDS TO START...EVENTUALLY
LOWERING TO IFR AFTER ABOUT 18Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON NIGHT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS. E WINDS... BECOMING
NW MONDAY AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL
TERMINALS.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WED-THU...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SEAS THERE TO RIGHT AROUND 5 FT.
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
PROBABLY HOVER AROUND 5 FT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT DUE TO
SWELL. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SCA ON THE OCEAN UNCHANGED...LASTING
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE OTHER WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN SOUND OR BAYS...BUT NOT WORTH CONSIDERATION OF A SCA.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT SEAS COULD CLIMB TO
5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AT TIMES DUE TO A SWELL. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. WHILE WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS TIME...SWELL MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 5 FT...PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
1/4-1/2 AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WOULD BE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LOCATION/TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KALY 010858
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
458 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO THICKEN AND LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
RAIN SHIELD APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
SLOW TO ADVANCE EASTWARD AS IT HAS BEEN ENCOUNTERING A RATHER DRY
AIRMASS WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON THE 00Z/SUN ALY AND OKX SOUNDINGS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN TODAY WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AS A LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT APPROACH. GUIDANCE
IS AGREEMENT THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME INTERMITTENT BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

WILL BE VERY COOL/CHILLY TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED AND THE TIMING OF
SYSTEM UNCERTAIN.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.

AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES COME INTO PLAY THE
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE ONSET OF THE
STEADY RAIN. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING.
THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE
THE DAY WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010855
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
455 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADARS ARE SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS
OCCURRING AS MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTH OVER AND AHEAD OF A
SURFACE WARM FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECTING THE
RAIN TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS FIRST ROUND OF RAIN IS NEAR ERIE AT 09Z
WHICH SHOULD REACH FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD SUNRISE THE SHIFTING
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO NEAR LUNCHTIME. TOTAL RAINFALL LOOKING LIKE A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING IN THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

WHILE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE
NY/PA LINE...ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT CONTRIBUTING TO CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MESO-MODELS INDICATE THE BEST INSTABILITY IN THE FORM
OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
7C/KM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED TO
HIGHLIGHT A LIKELY AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRIGGER
FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY BE A WEAK LOW TRACKING TOWARD NORTHEAST PA.
BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REACH 40-50KTS HERE WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
WEAKEN/DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAX OUT IN THE M/U50S FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH U40S/L50S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AFTER
STORMS HAVE WEAKENED. HAVE HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS BECAUSE WE CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SCATTERED/STRAY SHOWERS IN MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AS A SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF A PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX. HAVE INCLUDED CAT POPS
ACROSS MOST MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE THE
RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY ARRIVE BY 12Z MONDAY. WHILE LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH THIS SECOND WAVE OF RAIN...THE 00Z 4KM
NAM AND NSSL-WRF BOTH SHOW A SIGNATURE OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX TRACKING ALONG THE NY/PA LINE. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS FOR A FEATURE SUCH AS AN MCV 24
HOURS OUT BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN FOLLOWING MODEL
RUNS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE 40S TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A WET START TO THE WORK WEEK AS A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSES NEW YORK STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WITH THE ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL CENTER AND SURFACE TROUGHING
ORIENTED SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...STRONG LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY SEEING AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE SHORTWAVE
RAPIDLY TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS THE PICTURE...LINGERING MOISTURE AND
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION
SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EVEN AS THINGS DRY OUT. THE CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FILL AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE MAY
INTERACT WITH LIMITED LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TO SPARK A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ANY CLEAR FOCUSED LIFT...WILL STICK WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS. LESS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
850MB TEMPS SHOULD PRODUCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN A
LITTLE CLOSER TO CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S WITH READINGS AROUND 60 ION THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD YIELD
COMPARATIVELY WARMER READINGS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME OVER NORTH AMERICA
BECOMES SHARPLY MERIDIONAL. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN SHIELD WILL
PROCEED TO CARVE A SHARP TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERING JUST OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DEPRIVE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK OF
DEEPER MOISTURE...SO AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL BE
SCATTERED AT BEST. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY LOOKS MORE PROMISING IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF INTO A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS
NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGHING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS AND A MID-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INCREASING
EASTERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS COME IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL NO
LONGER APPEARS TO BE A CONCERN.

COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCOUNTERS A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SUBSEQUENTLY LINGERS ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE HEAVILY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD IN SPITE OF
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD A BAND OF STEADY RAIN NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE
LOWER END OF MVFR SCALE TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR AT JHW AND ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
LINGERING MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY TOWARD THE NY/PA BORDER AS
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS NEAR THE STALLED WARM FRONT. THIS MAY IMPACT
KJHW BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE VCTS IN THE
TAF.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
AGAIN LOWER CIGS TO MVFR FOR MOST WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 20
KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATER THIS MORNING...PROMPTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010855
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
455 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADARS ARE SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS
OCCURRING AS MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTH OVER AND AHEAD OF A
SURFACE WARM FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECTING THE
RAIN TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS FIRST ROUND OF RAIN IS NEAR ERIE AT 09Z
WHICH SHOULD REACH FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD SUNRISE THE SHIFTING
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO NEAR LUNCHTIME. TOTAL RAINFALL LOOKING LIKE A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING IN THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

WHILE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE
NY/PA LINE...ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT CONTRIBUTING TO CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MESO-MODELS INDICATE THE BEST INSTABILITY IN THE FORM
OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
7C/KM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED TO
HIGHLIGHT A LIKELY AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRIGGER
FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY BE A WEAK LOW TRACKING TOWARD NORTHEAST PA.
BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REACH 40-50KTS HERE WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
WEAKEN/DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAX OUT IN THE M/U50S FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH U40S/L50S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AFTER
STORMS HAVE WEAKENED. HAVE HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS BECAUSE WE CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SCATTERED/STRAY SHOWERS IN MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AS A SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF A PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX. HAVE INCLUDED CAT POPS
ACROSS MOST MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE THE
RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY ARRIVE BY 12Z MONDAY. WHILE LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH THIS SECOND WAVE OF RAIN...THE 00Z 4KM
NAM AND NSSL-WRF BOTH SHOW A SIGNATURE OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX TRACKING ALONG THE NY/PA LINE. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS FOR A FEATURE SUCH AS AN MCV 24
HOURS OUT BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN FOLLOWING MODEL
RUNS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE 40S TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A WET START TO THE WORK WEEK AS A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSES NEW YORK STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WITH THE ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL CENTER AND SURFACE TROUGHING
ORIENTED SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...STRONG LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY SEEING AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE SHORTWAVE
RAPIDLY TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS THE PICTURE...LINGERING MOISTURE AND
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION
SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EVEN AS THINGS DRY OUT. THE CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FILL AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE MAY
INTERACT WITH LIMITED LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TO SPARK A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ANY CLEAR FOCUSED LIFT...WILL STICK WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS. LESS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
850MB TEMPS SHOULD PRODUCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN A
LITTLE CLOSER TO CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S WITH READINGS AROUND 60 ION THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD YIELD
COMPARATIVELY WARMER READINGS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME OVER NORTH AMERICA
BECOMES SHARPLY MERIDIONAL. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN SHIELD WILL
PROCEED TO CARVE A SHARP TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERING JUST OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DEPRIVE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK OF
DEEPER MOISTURE...SO AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL BE
SCATTERED AT BEST. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY LOOKS MORE PROMISING IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF INTO A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS
NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGHING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS AND A MID-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INCREASING
EASTERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS COME IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL NO
LONGER APPEARS TO BE A CONCERN.

COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCOUNTERS A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SUBSEQUENTLY LINGERS ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE HEAVILY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD IN SPITE OF
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD A BAND OF STEADY RAIN NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE
LOWER END OF MVFR SCALE TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR AT JHW AND ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
LINGERING MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY TOWARD THE NY/PA BORDER AS
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS NEAR THE STALLED WARM FRONT. THIS MAY IMPACT
KJHW BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE VCTS IN THE
TAF.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
AGAIN LOWER CIGS TO MVFR FOR MOST WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 20
KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATER THIS MORNING...PROMPTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH




000
FXUS61 KALY 010842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO THICKEN AND LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
RAIN SHIELD APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
SLOW TO ADVANCE EASTWARD AS IT HAS BEEN ENCOUNTERING A RATHER DRY
AIRMASS WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON THE 00Z/SUN ALY AND OKX SOUNDINGS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN TODAY WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AS A LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT APPROACH. GUIDANCE
IS AGREEMENT THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME INTERMITTENT BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

WILL BE VERY COOL/CHILLY TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE ONSET OF THE
STEADY RAIN. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING.
THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE
THE DAY WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO THICKEN AND LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
RAIN SHIELD APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
SLOW TO ADVANCE EASTWARD AS IT HAS BEEN ENCOUNTERING A RATHER DRY
AIRMASS WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON THE 00Z/SUN ALY AND OKX SOUNDINGS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN TODAY WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AS A LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT APPROACH. GUIDANCE
IS AGREEMENT THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME INTERMITTENT BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

WILL BE VERY COOL/CHILLY TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE ONSET OF THE
STEADY RAIN. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING.
THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE
THE DAY WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBGM 010831
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
431 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PASSING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHOWERS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SKY WILL STAY OVERCAST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
BATCHES OF RAIN WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND
THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN BETWEEN.

RAIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS HAS BEEN FIGHTING ITS WAY INTO DRY
AIR...BUT IS GRADUALLY WINNING. IT HAS REACHED THE FINGER LAKES TO
TWIN TIERS...AND WILL OVERSPREAD POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK VALLEY
BY DAWN. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM LAKE ERIE THROUGH
LAKE ONTARIO TO FAR NORTHER NEW YORK. THE RAIN IS OCCURRING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH HAS DEEP MOISTURE POOLED WITH IT. WE ARE FIGURING ON
FOUR TO SEVEN TENTHS OF AN INCH TOTAL RAINFALL...MOST OF IT THROUGH
MAINLY THIS MORNING. WITH COOL STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER-FINGER LAKES
WILL MANAGE MID 50S FOR HIGHS...EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE.

BEHIND THE WAVE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SCATTERED MUCH OF
TODAY...YET LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES OF NY COULD RESULT IN MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON...PRESSING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHEAST PA THIS EVENING. MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD YIELD
A FEW ELEVATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS...AS
REFLECTED BY SHOWALTER INDICES GETTING BELOW ZERO IN MOST MODELS.
OTHER THAN THAT...ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN PRETTY SCATTERED TONIGHT.
THEN...A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL APPROACH TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY
TO CAUSE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO MOVE IN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
STRONG SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX
ALOFT...WILL CARRY THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. THIS WILL REPRESENT THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN...ANOTHER FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE...YET THE PATTERN WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE WAVE MONDAY MORNING...BEYOND THEN THE MODELS
DIFFER IN DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AS THE FRONTAL ZONE GETS
HUNG UP SOMEWHERE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. SO WHILE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET COMPARED TO MONDAY
MORNING...THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS SMALL DIFFICULT-TO-TIME WAVES MAKE
THEIR WAY THROUGH THE WSW TO SW FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...LOW 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S SOUTH. STILL A BIT SHORT OF CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH WITH LESS OF A GRADIENT WITH UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. AS FOR LOWS...UPPER 30S-MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN A FEW DEGREES UP FROM THAT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 AM SUNDAY UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK, SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEASTERN STATES, BASICALLY ON THE
FORWARD SIDE OF A BIG OMEGA BLOCK. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
POSITIONING/AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION, ITS
DEVELOPMENT SEEMS TO BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY.

AS A RESULT OF THE WHAT WAS JUST DESCRIBED ABOVE, WE`LL CONTINUE
WITH A FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC FORECAST (MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES, CHANCE-
LIKELY PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS, AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MAY) RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH AN
"ALL-DAY WASHOUT" WOULD BE UNLIKELY ON ANY GIVEN DAY, AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN EACH DAY LOOKS LIKE A SOLID BET
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS (MAINLY MVFR) CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD, AT MOST SITES, AS LOWER CEILINGS AND RAIN
PREVAIL.

THE EXCEPTION TO THE ABOVE WILL BE THIS MORNING AT KSYR AND KAVP,
WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES WITH A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP
VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS GOING. EVEN AT THESE TWO SITES,
THOUGH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AT KBGM AND KITH, STEADIER/HEAVIER RAIN TOWARDS 12Z, COULD PRODUCE
PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS. AT KBGM, PERSISTENT IFR CEILING BASES
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. AT THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT, SPARSE COVERAGE AND
UNCERTAIN DEVELOPMENT PRECLUDE THEIR MENTION IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS.

AS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS, THEY WILL BE S-SE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AVERAGING 8-12 KT. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT
KAVP, AND UP TO 20-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KSYR,
KITH, AND KBGM.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN LOWER CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TUE...VFR IS EXPECTED.

WED-THU...MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE PROBABLE IN LOWER CEILINGS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010815
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAINFALL INTO TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN ON MONDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND N-CNTRL VT THIS MORNING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND A WARM FRONT IS QUICKLY
APPROACHING FROM W-CNTRL NY AND PA.

A GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP CLOSE TO WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. THE STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295/300K SFCS INDICATES PERIODS OF
RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE FCST AREA BTWN 12Z-16Z.
INITIALLY...THE COLUMN WILL BE DRY...BUT SHOULD RAPIDLY SATURATE.
THE E/SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL A BIT ALONG THE ERN
SPINE OF THE NRN DACKS...AND THE NRN GREENS. POPS WERE INCREASED
TO CATEGORICAL VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE TWO TENTHS TO HALF AN INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE BLAST OF STRONG LIFT WITH THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ACCORDING TO THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEFS BY THE EARLY EVENING...BUT RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLUMN
WILL BE SATURATED...AND DESPITE THE WEAKER LIFT OVER THE
REGION...HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE CONTINUED TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40-45F RANGE WITH SOME U30S OVER THE HIGH
PEAKS.

MONDAY...ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND
UPSTATE NY MONDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL IMPACT THE FCST AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE IS GOOD QG LIFT FROM THE
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE
THICKENESS ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO SUNDAY WITH 40S
TO L50S OVER NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH A
BUBBLE HIGH BUILDING IN OVER SE CANADA AND NRN NY AND VT LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS OVER CNTRL VT. A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS WAS INCLUDED TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECTED PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. AFTER LOWS IN THE
M30S TO L40S...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE U50S TO L60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U40S TO M50S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.

TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ERN
FLANK OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE MDEIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES ON HOW STRONG THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE.
INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH PRIOR TO 12Z...BUT THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS BTWN
12Z-16Z ACROSS NRN NY AND N-CNTRL VT IN STRATIFORM RAINSHIELD.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO 12Z...BUT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS BY NOONTIME.

THE RAINSHIELD SHOULD NICELY EXPAND WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VSBYS BTWN 3-5 SM. THE MOISTURE WILL BE
ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SOME IFR STRATUS AND VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY AND NRN VT IN THE 21Z/SUN TO
01Z/MON TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS AT
THIS TIME. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE OR S AT 5-10
KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR W/PSBL IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE.
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU:GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA/NEILES
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBGM 010809
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
409 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PASSING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHOWERS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SKY WILL STAY OVERCAST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
BATCHES OF RAIN WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND
THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN BETWEEN.

RAIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS HAS BEEN FIGHTING ITS WAY INTO DRY
AIR...BUT IS GRADUALLY WINNING. IT HAS REACHED THE FINGER LAKES TO
TWIN TIERS...AND WILL OVERSPREAD POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK VALLEY
BY DAWN. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM LAKE ERIE THROUGH
LAKE ONTARIO TO FAR NORTHER NEW YORK. THE RAIN IS OCCURRING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH HAS DEEP MOISTURE POOLED WITH IT. WE ARE FIGURING ON
FOUR TO SEVEN TENTHS OF AN INCH TOTAL RAINFALL...MOST OF IT THROUGH
MAINLY THIS MORNING. WITH COOL STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER-FINGER LAKES
WILL MANAGE MID 50S FOR HIGHS...EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE.

BEHIND THE WAVE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SCATTERED MUCH OF
TODAY...YET LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES OF NY COULD RESULT IN MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON...PRESSING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHEAST PA THIS EVENING. MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD YIELD
A FEW ELEVATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS...AS
REFLECTED BY SHOWALTER INDICES GETTING BELOW ZERO IN MOST MODELS.
OTHER THAN THAT...ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN PRETTY SCATTERED TONIGHT.
THEN...A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL APPROACH TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY
TO CAUSE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO MOVE IN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
STRONG SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX
ALOFT...WILL CARRY THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. THIS WILL REPRESENT THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN...ANOTHER FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE...YET THE PATTERN WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE WAVE MONDAY MORNING...BEYOND THEN THE MODELS
DIFFER IN DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AS THE FRONTAL ZONE GETS
HUNG UP SOMEWHERE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. SO WHILE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET COMPARED TO MONDAY
MORNING...THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS SMALL DIFFICULT-TO-TIME WAVES MAKE
THEIR WAY THROUGH THE WSW TO SW FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...LOW 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S SOUTH. STILL A BIT SHORT OF CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH WITH LESS OF A GRADIENT WITH UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. AS FOR LOWS...UPPER 30S-MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN A FEW DEGREES UP FROM THAT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FCST FOR THE LONG TERM AS A CLSD LOW DVLPS OVER THE
LAKES AND MEANDERS ACROSS THE NE CORNER OF THE U.S. PD STARTS OFF
DRY AS TWO AREAS OF LOPRES APRCH...ONE ALONG THE SE US CST AND
ANOTHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BY WED AFTN...SHWRS SHD BRK OUT ASTHE
TWO SYSTEMS SLOWLY MERGE. CONSOLIDATION IS COMPLETE BY LATE THU AS
A DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SITS OVER ERN NJ. FROM
THERE...FCST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN AS THE EURO SLOWLY BACKS THE LOW
TO THE NW TO NEAR TORONTO BY LATE FRI. SYSTEM HAS DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE CSTL SYSTEM...BUT LACKS GOOD FRCG LVG THE LIKELIHOOD OF
WIDESPREAD BUT LGT SHWRS...MAINLY DRIVEN BY AFTN HTG CONV. HAVE
UPPED POPS A BIT AGAIN WITH SOME LIKELY POPS AT TIMES. UNLESS
THINGS CHG...XPCT SLOWLY INCRSG POPS AS WE APRCH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THE FCST BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS (MAINLY MVFR) CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD, AT MOST SITES, AS LOWER CEILINGS AND RAIN
PREVAIL.

THE EXCEPTION TO THE ABOVE WILL BE THIS MORNING AT KSYR AND KAVP,
WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES WITH A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP
VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS GOING. EVEN AT THESE TWO SITES,
THOUGH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AT KBGM AND KITH, STEADIER/HEAVIER RAIN TOWARDS 12Z, COULD PRODUCE
PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS. AT KBGM, PERSISTENT IFR CEILING BASES
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. AT THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT, SPARSE COVERAGE AND
UNCERTAIN DEVELOPMENT PRECLUDE THEIR MENTION IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS.

AS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS, THEY WILL BE S-SE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AVERAGING 8-12 KT. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT
KAVP, AND UP TO 20-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KSYR,
KITH, AND KBGM.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN LOWER CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TUE...VFR IS EXPECTED.

WED-THU...MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE PROBABLE IN LOWER CEILINGS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010807 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
407 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY
NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THEN
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE TODAY IN RESPONSE
TO OVER RUNNING/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. SHOWALTER INDICES FALL
DOWN TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2 THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SW 2/5 OF
THE CWA...SO HAVE ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY ELEVATED STORMS.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED FOR HIGHS FOR TODAY. DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE RAINFALL
AND ONSHORE FLOW...HIGHS SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA IN WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAINLY LAY S OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ON MONDAY...WHEN THERE IS NOW ENOUGH
SUPPORT IN THE VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS TO BELIEVE IT SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT IS NOT
CERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY DURING THE DAY THAN AT NIGHT...SO
HAVE INTRODUCED FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WHEN THERE ARE EXPECTED
LULLS IN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...SHOWALTER INDICES FOR THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO GENERALLY -2 TO 2.

ON THE WHOLE GENERALLY EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH LULLS OF MAINLY PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING...AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS
GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOTE...IF THE WARM FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA...THEN HIGHS COULD END UP 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS FROM
CENTRAL LONG ISLAND ON W-NW INTO NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM
950-925 HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OFF A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS
USED...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL
DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW BEING FORECAST...AS THE HANDLING OF THIS TYPE
OF FEATURE IS NOT THE GREATEST STRENGTH OF CURRENT NWP MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST DRIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

LIGHT SE WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BACK TOWARDS ESE THIS
MORNING...THEN E THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY SLOWLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KT AT MOST TERMINALS. A FEW GUSTS 15-18 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST-EAST BETWEEN 11Z-14Z ALTHOUGH A SHOWER
OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THEN. VFR CONDS TO START...EVENTUALLY
LOWERING TO IFR AFTER ABOUT 18Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON NIGHT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS. E WINDS... BECOMING
NW MONDAY AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL
TERMINALS.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WED-THU...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SEAS RIGHT AROUND 5 FT. WINDS DIMINISH
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS PROBABLY HOVER AROUND 5 FT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE NIGHT DUE TO SWELL. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SCA ON THE OCEAN
UNCHANGED...LASTING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE OTHER WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN SOUND OR BAYS...BUT NOT WORTH CONSIDERATION OF A SCA.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT SEAS COULD CLIMB TO
5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AT TIMES DUE TO A SWELL. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. WHILE WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS TIME...SWELL MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 5 FT...PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
1/4-1/2 AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WOULD BE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LOCATION/TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010754
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
354 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY
NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THEN
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE TODAY IN RESPONSE
TO OVER RUNNING/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED FOR HIGHS FOR TODAY. DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE RAINFALL
AND ONSHORE FLOW...HIGHS SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA IN WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAINLY LAY S OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ON MONDAY...WHEN THERE IS NOW ENOUGH
SUPPORT IN THE VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS TO BELIEVE IT SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT IS NOT
CERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY DURING THE DAY THAN AT NIGHT...SO
HAVE INTRODUCED FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WHEN THERE ARE EXPECTED
LULLS IN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...SHOWALTER INDICES FOR THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO GENERALLY -2 TO 2.

ON THE WHOLE GENERALLY EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH LULLS OF MAINLY PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING...AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS
GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOTE...IF THE WARM FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA...THEN HIGHS COULD END UP 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS FROM
CENTRAL LONG ISLAND ON W-NW INTO NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM
950-925 HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OFF A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS
USED...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL
DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW BEING FORECAST...AS THE HANDLING OF THIS TYPE
OF FEATURE IS NOT THE GREATEST STRENGTH OF CURRENT NWP MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST DRIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

LIGHT SE WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BACK TOWARDS ESE THIS
MORNING...THEN E THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY SLOWLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KT AT MOST TERMINALS. A FEW GUSTS 15-18 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST-EAST BETWEEN 11Z-14Z ALTHOUGH A SHOWER
OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THEN. VFR CONDS TO START...EVENTUALLY
LOWERING TO IFR AFTER ABOUT 18Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON NIGHT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS. E WINDS... BECOMING
NW MONDAY AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL
TERMINALS.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WED-THU...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SEAS RIGHT AROUND 5 FT. WINDS DIMINISH
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS PROBABLY HOVER AROUND 5 FT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE NIGHT DUE TO SWELL. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SCA ON THE OCEAN
UNCHANGED...LASTING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE OTHER WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN SOUND OR BAYS...BUT NOT WORTH CONSIDERATION OF A SCA.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT SEAS COULD CLIMB TO
5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AT TIMES DUE TO A SWELL. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. WHILE WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS TIME...SWELL MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 5 FT...PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
1/4-1/2 AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WOULD BE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LOCATION/TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




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