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000
FXUS61 KALY 161716
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
116 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL...FALL
LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS
HIGHER PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
HAVE PULLED BACK A BIT ON HIGHS FOR THE DAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER/LIMITED SUNSHINE...LOOKING AT LOWER TO MID 60S WITH 50S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
BEING INDICATED ON RADAR...THESE TOO WILL DISSIPATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY CALL REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES...UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WHICH COULD ACT TO TRAP LAKE MOISTURE IN A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR MANNER TO SUN NT/MON AM. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AT TIMES.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...ASSUMING THAT
AT LEAST SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. IN ADDITION...EVEN
IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
SO...FORECAST MINS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...WARMEST IN VALLEY AREAS. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...NO FROST
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

WED-WED NT...AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF/LIFT...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING 65-70 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WED NT...SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STREAM SE ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA. SOME
SHOWERS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

THU-THU NT...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY. SO...IN GENERAL...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THU...WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. AGAIN...NO POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SEEP SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ESP FOR THU NT. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND MAY PERSIST JUST LONG ENOUGH IN THE
VALLEY AREAS TO LIMIT OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VT...TEMPS COULD DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...EVEN WITH SOME WIND. SO...THESE AREAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...AND
65-70 TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF FA TO REMAIN DRY AS FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS
DELAYING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPS AT THE TAF
SITES TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE PLACED TEMPO GROUPS AT THE TAF SITES FOR
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 18Z-20Z. AFTERNOON
MIXING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FLYING CONDITIONS BY 20Z WITH GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CLEAR WITH CALM WINDS.
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN IFR/MVFR FOG AT
THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AMIDST THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT IFR FOG TO DEVELOP FIRST AT KGFL AND KPSF IN THE
03-06Z TIMEFRAME...AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE GONE WITH MVFR FOG AT KALB AND KPOU AS
SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING SHOULD LIMIT IFR FOG FORMATION...ALTHOUGH
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS TONIGHT.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS TONIGHT WILL
TREND TOWARDS CALM WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL TO 50-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO
90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION EXPECTED. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-55 PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-20 MPH...THEN DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK
INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WED...AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND GENERALLY ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE
LOWEST AMTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THESE RAINFALL AMTS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SND/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND
SHORT TERM...SND/KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL







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000
FXUS61 KBTV 161656
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1256 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THIS EVENING. GENERALLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1252 PM EDT TUESDAY...SLOW CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS
NRN NY IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH HAS
EXITED EAST OF VERMONT. STILL A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES
ACROSS NRN VT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ACROSS VERMONT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S. LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST 5-10 MPH THIS
AFTN...WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. AFTER LOW CLOUDS DEPART OR DISSIPATE...LOOK FOR SOME
FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME 30S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY...WE`LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY.
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WITH
PARTIAL SUN WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID
60S IN THE VALLEYS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT...WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
BULK OF MOISTURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH LATE...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EXCEPT
FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING...THURSDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY...WITH DECREASING
CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
PREDOMINATELY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...TRENDING UNSETTLED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDEST AIR-MASS OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR DROPS INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS JUST BELOW 0C AND
AT 925MB JUST A LITTLE ABOVE ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. THIS WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY END THE GROWING
SEASON FOR MANY.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 50S...BUT
PUSHING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA INTENSIFIES
ENTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH IS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PARALLEL TO THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT...SLOWING THE SYSTEMS OVERALL
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. WITH THAT IN MIND...THINKING WE`LL SEE A
RELATIVELY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING IN THE 50S...AND
A WARM...PLEASANT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

PRECIP FINALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY DRIER AT MID-LEVELS
COMPARED TO THE GFS SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION...BUT WHEN ARE
THEY NOT 7 DAYS OUT. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS A LIGHT
EVENT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON
RADAR WILL DISSIPATE TOWARDS MID-DAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z...MAINLY EAST OF KMSS. SKIES SLOWLY
SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND
ENOUGH CLEARING...KMPV AND KSLK WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LIFR FOG.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN EARLY MORNING
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF





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000
FXUS61 KBGM 161636
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1236 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL PASS EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE GONE BY SUNRISE...BUT CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY. COLD DRY AIR COULD CAUSE FROST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE... JUST ISOLD SHWRS/SPRINKLES REMAIN OVER OUR NRN
ZNS LATE THIS MRNG...OWING TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE NWLY
FLOW. AS THE COLUMN GRADUALLY DRIES OUT AND SINKING MOTION SETS
IN WITH TIME...ANY LGT PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BY EARLY AFTN...WITH SKIES
ALSO BCMG PTLY SUNNY MOST AREAS.

BASED ON 12Z SNDGS AND THE EXPECTATION OF SLGT LOW-LVL CAA THIS
AFTN...OUR FCST HIGHS (RANGING IN THE 60S) LOOK REASONABLE.

PREV DISC... 3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED INTO WRN NY ATTM. LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER HALF AN INCH NOW AND WITH THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD STAY THAT
WAY. THE FAR SOUTH AND SE WILL NOT SEE THAT MUCH RAIN. DRY NOW AND
BULK OF RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF THERE THIS MORNING. STEADY RAIN
WILL EXIT THE WRN CATSKILLS BY 8 AM...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
COULD BE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT DAYTIME MORNING IN CENT NY AND
CATSKILLS UNTIL MIDDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT CAA FROM THE NW WILL START. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
COMBINED WITH LAKE MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM
THE MIDWEST. WITH THE CLOUDS MODEL GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT HAS COME IN WARMER. VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A FROST AND THEN
ONLY IN NE ONEIDA AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED THE HIGH WEAKENS BUT IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

WED NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
EVEN LARGER SFC HIGH COMING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN KEEP
TEMPS UP AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IF ANYTHING. SCHC POPS STEUBEN TO ONEIDA COUNTIES IN NY LATE WED
NGT AND THU MORNING.

THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NE US FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING
A COLD CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CAUSE FROST TO
FORM. THE COLDEST TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE FROM DELAWARE
TO ONEIDA COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELAXATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. A ZONAL, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S., WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA LATE SATURDAY AND PUSH
SHOWERS ACROSS NY/PA. THIS CYCLONE WILL STALL OVER LOWER ONTARIO
AND BECOME STACKED WITH A STRONG, CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE PRESENCE
OF THE DUAL SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SHOWERS FLOWING INTO NY/PA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIPTATION HAS EXITED THE REGION BUT THERE REMAINS SOME LOW
STRATOCU TO BURN OFF. A BROKEN 2500 TO 5000 FT DECK IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH RAPID CLEARING EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE AROUND SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RIVER VALLEY FOG IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR FOG WILL BE AT KELM AFTER 7Z.
LIGHTER FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KITH AND KBGM.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 161636
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1236 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL PASS EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE GONE BY SUNRISE...BUT CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY. COLD DRY AIR COULD CAUSE FROST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE... JUST ISOLD SHWRS/SPRINKLES REMAIN OVER OUR NRN
ZNS LATE THIS MRNG...OWING TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE NWLY
FLOW. AS THE COLUMN GRADUALLY DRIES OUT AND SINKING MOTION SETS
IN WITH TIME...ANY LGT PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BY EARLY AFTN...WITH SKIES
ALSO BCMG PTLY SUNNY MOST AREAS.

BASED ON 12Z SNDGS AND THE EXPECTATION OF SLGT LOW-LVL CAA THIS
AFTN...OUR FCST HIGHS (RANGING IN THE 60S) LOOK REASONABLE.

PREV DISC... 3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED INTO WRN NY ATTM. LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER HALF AN INCH NOW AND WITH THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD STAY THAT
WAY. THE FAR SOUTH AND SE WILL NOT SEE THAT MUCH RAIN. DRY NOW AND
BULK OF RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF THERE THIS MORNING. STEADY RAIN
WILL EXIT THE WRN CATSKILLS BY 8 AM...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
COULD BE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT DAYTIME MORNING IN CENT NY AND
CATSKILLS UNTIL MIDDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT CAA FROM THE NW WILL START. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
COMBINED WITH LAKE MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM
THE MIDWEST. WITH THE CLOUDS MODEL GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT HAS COME IN WARMER. VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A FROST AND THEN
ONLY IN NE ONEIDA AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED THE HIGH WEAKENS BUT IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

WED NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
EVEN LARGER SFC HIGH COMING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN KEEP
TEMPS UP AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IF ANYTHING. SCHC POPS STEUBEN TO ONEIDA COUNTIES IN NY LATE WED
NGT AND THU MORNING.

THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NE US FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING
A COLD CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CAUSE FROST TO
FORM. THE COLDEST TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE FROM DELAWARE
TO ONEIDA COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELAXATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. A ZONAL, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S., WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA LATE SATURDAY AND PUSH
SHOWERS ACROSS NY/PA. THIS CYCLONE WILL STALL OVER LOWER ONTARIO
AND BECOME STACKED WITH A STRONG, CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE PRESENCE
OF THE DUAL SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SHOWERS FLOWING INTO NY/PA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIPTATION HAS EXITED THE REGION BUT THERE REMAINS SOME LOW
STRATOCU TO BURN OFF. A BROKEN 2500 TO 5000 FT DECK IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH RAPID CLEARING EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE AROUND SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RIVER VALLEY FOG IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR FOG WILL BE AT KELM AFTER 7Z.
LIGHTER FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KITH AND KBGM.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 161556
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1156 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL PASS EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE GONE BY SUNRISE...BUT CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY. COLD DRY AIR COULD CAUSE FROST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE... JUST ISOLD SHWRS/SPRINKLES REMAIN OVER OUR NRN
ZNS LATE THIS MRNG...OWING TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE NWLY
FLOW. AS THE COLUMN GRADUALLY DRIES OUT AND SINKING MOTION SETS
IN WITH TIME...ANY LGT PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BY EARLY AFTN...WITH SKIES
ALSO BCMG PTLY SUNNY MOST AREAS.

BASED ON 12Z SNDGS AND THE EXPECTATION OF SLGT LOW-LVL CAA THIS
AFTN...OUR FCST HIGHS (RANGING IN THE 60S) LOOK REASONABLE.

PREV DISC... 3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED INTO WRN NY ATTM. LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER HALF AN INCH NOW AND WITH THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD STAY THAT
WAY. THE FAR SOUTH AND SE WILL NOT SEE THAT MUCH RAIN. DRY NOW AND
BULK OF RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF THERE THIS MORNING. STEADY RAIN
WILL EXIT THE WRN CATSKILLS BY 8 AM...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
COULD BE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT DAYTIME MORNING IN CENT NY AND
CATSKILLS UNTIL MIDDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT CAA FROM THE NW WILL START. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
COMBINED WITH LAKE MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM
THE MIDWEST. WITH THE CLOUDS MODEL GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT HAS COME IN WARMER. VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A FROST AND THEN
ONLY IN NE ONEIDA AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED THE HIGH WEAKENS BUT IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

WED NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
EVEN LARGER SFC HIGH COMING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN KEEP
TEMPS UP AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IF ANYTHING. SCHC POPS STEUBEN TO ONEIDA COUNTIES IN NY LATE WED
NGT AND THU MORNING.

THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NE US FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING
A COLD CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CAUSE FROST TO
FORM. THE COLDEST TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE FROM DELAWARE
TO ONEIDA COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELAXATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. A ZONAL, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S., WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA LATE SATURDAY AND PUSH
SHOWERS ACROSS NY/PA. THIS CYCLONE WILL STALL OVER LOWER ONTARIO
AND BECOME STACKED WITH A STRONG, CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE PRESENCE
OF THE DUAL SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SHOWERS FLOWING INTO NY/PA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHWRS MVG OUT OF THE AREA ATTM. XPCT CONTD IMPRVMT BHD THE FNT AND
SHWRS AS DRIER AIR WRKS INTO THE REGION...WITH ALL SITES VFR BY
ARND 14Z. VFR CONDS CONT THRU THE DAY INTO THE EVE. OVRNGT...LGT
WINDS WELL UP INTO THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH CLR SKIES AND WET GND
SHD LEAD TO XTNSV FOG DVLPG WITH VLIFR AT ELM/BGM/ITH AND IFR AT
AVP THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 161556
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1156 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL PASS EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE GONE BY SUNRISE...BUT CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY. COLD DRY AIR COULD CAUSE FROST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE... JUST ISOLD SHWRS/SPRINKLES REMAIN OVER OUR NRN
ZNS LATE THIS MRNG...OWING TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE NWLY
FLOW. AS THE COLUMN GRADUALLY DRIES OUT AND SINKING MOTION SETS
IN WITH TIME...ANY LGT PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BY EARLY AFTN...WITH SKIES
ALSO BCMG PTLY SUNNY MOST AREAS.

BASED ON 12Z SNDGS AND THE EXPECTATION OF SLGT LOW-LVL CAA THIS
AFTN...OUR FCST HIGHS (RANGING IN THE 60S) LOOK REASONABLE.

PREV DISC... 3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED INTO WRN NY ATTM. LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER HALF AN INCH NOW AND WITH THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD STAY THAT
WAY. THE FAR SOUTH AND SE WILL NOT SEE THAT MUCH RAIN. DRY NOW AND
BULK OF RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF THERE THIS MORNING. STEADY RAIN
WILL EXIT THE WRN CATSKILLS BY 8 AM...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
COULD BE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT DAYTIME MORNING IN CENT NY AND
CATSKILLS UNTIL MIDDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT CAA FROM THE NW WILL START. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
COMBINED WITH LAKE MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM
THE MIDWEST. WITH THE CLOUDS MODEL GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT HAS COME IN WARMER. VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A FROST AND THEN
ONLY IN NE ONEIDA AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED THE HIGH WEAKENS BUT IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

WED NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
EVEN LARGER SFC HIGH COMING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN KEEP
TEMPS UP AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IF ANYTHING. SCHC POPS STEUBEN TO ONEIDA COUNTIES IN NY LATE WED
NGT AND THU MORNING.

THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NE US FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING
A COLD CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CAUSE FROST TO
FORM. THE COLDEST TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE FROM DELAWARE
TO ONEIDA COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELAXATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. A ZONAL, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S., WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA LATE SATURDAY AND PUSH
SHOWERS ACROSS NY/PA. THIS CYCLONE WILL STALL OVER LOWER ONTARIO
AND BECOME STACKED WITH A STRONG, CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE PRESENCE
OF THE DUAL SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SHOWERS FLOWING INTO NY/PA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHWRS MVG OUT OF THE AREA ATTM. XPCT CONTD IMPRVMT BHD THE FNT AND
SHWRS AS DRIER AIR WRKS INTO THE REGION...WITH ALL SITES VFR BY
ARND 14Z. VFR CONDS CONT THRU THE DAY INTO THE EVE. OVRNGT...LGT
WINDS WELL UP INTO THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH CLR SKIES AND WET GND
SHD LEAD TO XTNSV FOG DVLPG WITH VLIFR AT ELM/BGM/ITH AND IFR AT
AVP THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 161556
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1156 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL PASS EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE GONE BY SUNRISE...BUT CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY. COLD DRY AIR COULD CAUSE FROST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE... JUST ISOLD SHWRS/SPRINKLES REMAIN OVER OUR NRN
ZNS LATE THIS MRNG...OWING TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE NWLY
FLOW. AS THE COLUMN GRADUALLY DRIES OUT AND SINKING MOTION SETS
IN WITH TIME...ANY LGT PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BY EARLY AFTN...WITH SKIES
ALSO BCMG PTLY SUNNY MOST AREAS.

BASED ON 12Z SNDGS AND THE EXPECTATION OF SLGT LOW-LVL CAA THIS
AFTN...OUR FCST HIGHS (RANGING IN THE 60S) LOOK REASONABLE.

PREV DISC... 3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED INTO WRN NY ATTM. LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER HALF AN INCH NOW AND WITH THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD STAY THAT
WAY. THE FAR SOUTH AND SE WILL NOT SEE THAT MUCH RAIN. DRY NOW AND
BULK OF RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF THERE THIS MORNING. STEADY RAIN
WILL EXIT THE WRN CATSKILLS BY 8 AM...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
COULD BE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT DAYTIME MORNING IN CENT NY AND
CATSKILLS UNTIL MIDDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT CAA FROM THE NW WILL START. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
COMBINED WITH LAKE MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM
THE MIDWEST. WITH THE CLOUDS MODEL GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT HAS COME IN WARMER. VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A FROST AND THEN
ONLY IN NE ONEIDA AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED THE HIGH WEAKENS BUT IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

WED NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
EVEN LARGER SFC HIGH COMING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN KEEP
TEMPS UP AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IF ANYTHING. SCHC POPS STEUBEN TO ONEIDA COUNTIES IN NY LATE WED
NGT AND THU MORNING.

THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NE US FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING
A COLD CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CAUSE FROST TO
FORM. THE COLDEST TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE FROM DELAWARE
TO ONEIDA COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELAXATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. A ZONAL, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S., WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA LATE SATURDAY AND PUSH
SHOWERS ACROSS NY/PA. THIS CYCLONE WILL STALL OVER LOWER ONTARIO
AND BECOME STACKED WITH A STRONG, CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE PRESENCE
OF THE DUAL SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SHOWERS FLOWING INTO NY/PA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHWRS MVG OUT OF THE AREA ATTM. XPCT CONTD IMPRVMT BHD THE FNT AND
SHWRS AS DRIER AIR WRKS INTO THE REGION...WITH ALL SITES VFR BY
ARND 14Z. VFR CONDS CONT THRU THE DAY INTO THE EVE. OVRNGT...LGT
WINDS WELL UP INTO THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH CLR SKIES AND WET GND
SHD LEAD TO XTNSV FOG DVLPG WITH VLIFR AT ELM/BGM/ITH AND IFR AT
AVP THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 161556
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1156 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL PASS EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE GONE BY SUNRISE...BUT CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY. COLD DRY AIR COULD CAUSE FROST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE... JUST ISOLD SHWRS/SPRINKLES REMAIN OVER OUR NRN
ZNS LATE THIS MRNG...OWING TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE NWLY
FLOW. AS THE COLUMN GRADUALLY DRIES OUT AND SINKING MOTION SETS
IN WITH TIME...ANY LGT PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BY EARLY AFTN...WITH SKIES
ALSO BCMG PTLY SUNNY MOST AREAS.

BASED ON 12Z SNDGS AND THE EXPECTATION OF SLGT LOW-LVL CAA THIS
AFTN...OUR FCST HIGHS (RANGING IN THE 60S) LOOK REASONABLE.

PREV DISC... 3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED INTO WRN NY ATTM. LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER HALF AN INCH NOW AND WITH THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD STAY THAT
WAY. THE FAR SOUTH AND SE WILL NOT SEE THAT MUCH RAIN. DRY NOW AND
BULK OF RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF THERE THIS MORNING. STEADY RAIN
WILL EXIT THE WRN CATSKILLS BY 8 AM...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
COULD BE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT DAYTIME MORNING IN CENT NY AND
CATSKILLS UNTIL MIDDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT CAA FROM THE NW WILL START. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
COMBINED WITH LAKE MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM
THE MIDWEST. WITH THE CLOUDS MODEL GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT HAS COME IN WARMER. VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A FROST AND THEN
ONLY IN NE ONEIDA AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED THE HIGH WEAKENS BUT IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

WED NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
EVEN LARGER SFC HIGH COMING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN KEEP
TEMPS UP AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IF ANYTHING. SCHC POPS STEUBEN TO ONEIDA COUNTIES IN NY LATE WED
NGT AND THU MORNING.

THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NE US FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING
A COLD CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CAUSE FROST TO
FORM. THE COLDEST TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE FROM DELAWARE
TO ONEIDA COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELAXATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. A ZONAL, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S., WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA LATE SATURDAY AND PUSH
SHOWERS ACROSS NY/PA. THIS CYCLONE WILL STALL OVER LOWER ONTARIO
AND BECOME STACKED WITH A STRONG, CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE PRESENCE
OF THE DUAL SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SHOWERS FLOWING INTO NY/PA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHWRS MVG OUT OF THE AREA ATTM. XPCT CONTD IMPRVMT BHD THE FNT AND
SHWRS AS DRIER AIR WRKS INTO THE REGION...WITH ALL SITES VFR BY
ARND 14Z. VFR CONDS CONT THRU THE DAY INTO THE EVE. OVRNGT...LGT
WINDS WELL UP INTO THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH CLR SKIES AND WET GND
SHD LEAD TO XTNSV FOG DVLPG WITH VLIFR AT ELM/BGM/ITH AND IFR AT
AVP THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 161528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1128 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND
COOL...FALL LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1125 AM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH JUST A FEW
SMALL BREAKS. CLEARING IS NOTED UPSTREAM FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY TO THE ROCHESTER AND BUFFALO AREAS. STILL EXPECT GRADUAL
CLEARING TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT IMAGERY.

RADAR ONLY SHOWS A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.
BASED ON THIS HAVE REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE AREA TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO
THE LOW 60S OVER THE PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE A FEW
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE HAVE DEVELOPED. LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO THE UPPER 60S BECAUSE OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

LITTLE CHANGES ELSEWHERE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY CALL REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES...UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WHICH COULD ACT TO TRAP LAKE MOISTURE IN A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR MANNER TO SUN NT/MON AM. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AT TIMES.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...ASSUMING THAT
AT LEAST SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. IN ADDITION...EVEN
IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
SO...FORECAST MINS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...WARMEST IN VALLEY AREAS. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...NO FROST
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

WED-WED NT...AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF/LIFT...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING 65-70 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WED NT...SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STREAM SE ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA. SOME
SHOWERS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

THU-THU NT...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY. SO...IN GENERAL...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THU...WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. AGAIN...NO POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SEEP SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ESP FOR THU NT. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND MAY PERSIST JUST LONG ENOUGH IN THE
VALLEY AREAS TO LIMIT OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VT...TEMPS COULD DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...EVEN WITH SOME WIND. SO...THESE AREAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...AND
65-70 TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF FA TO REMAIN DRY AS FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS
DELAYING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERING CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... AND LAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KGFL AND KPSF AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO FOG.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS TODAY BECOMING CALM
OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL TO 50-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO
90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION EXPECTED. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-55 PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-20 MPH...THEN DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK
INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WED...AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND GENERALLY ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE
LOWEST AMTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THESE RAINFALL AMTS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 161528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1128 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND
COOL...FALL LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1125 AM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH JUST A FEW
SMALL BREAKS. CLEARING IS NOTED UPSTREAM FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY TO THE ROCHESTER AND BUFFALO AREAS. STILL EXPECT GRADUAL
CLEARING TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT IMAGERY.

RADAR ONLY SHOWS A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.
BASED ON THIS HAVE REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE AREA TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO
THE LOW 60S OVER THE PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE A FEW
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE HAVE DEVELOPED. LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO THE UPPER 60S BECAUSE OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

LITTLE CHANGES ELSEWHERE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY CALL REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES...UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WHICH COULD ACT TO TRAP LAKE MOISTURE IN A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR MANNER TO SUN NT/MON AM. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AT TIMES.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...ASSUMING THAT
AT LEAST SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. IN ADDITION...EVEN
IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
SO...FORECAST MINS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...WARMEST IN VALLEY AREAS. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...NO FROST
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

WED-WED NT...AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF/LIFT...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING 65-70 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WED NT...SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STREAM SE ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA. SOME
SHOWERS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

THU-THU NT...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY. SO...IN GENERAL...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THU...WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. AGAIN...NO POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SEEP SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ESP FOR THU NT. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND MAY PERSIST JUST LONG ENOUGH IN THE
VALLEY AREAS TO LIMIT OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VT...TEMPS COULD DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...EVEN WITH SOME WIND. SO...THESE AREAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...AND
65-70 TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF FA TO REMAIN DRY AS FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS
DELAYING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERING CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... AND LAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KGFL AND KPSF AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO FOG.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS TODAY BECOMING CALM
OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL TO 50-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO
90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION EXPECTED. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-55 PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-20 MPH...THEN DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK
INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WED...AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND GENERALLY ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE
LOWEST AMTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THESE RAINFALL AMTS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBUF 161456
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1056 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOME LATE THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS
OF SUNSHINE...BEFORE MORE CLOUDS MAKE A RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO
WEDNESDAY THEN A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AS A COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
AVERAGE...HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
SHOULD HELP DRY UP ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.

REGIONAL RADARS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWING JUST A FEW ISOLATED LAKE
ENHANCED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS LEFT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND +4C
OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATER THERE IS JUST ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FOR THESE SHOWERS IN AN OTHERWISE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LATER THIS MORNING EXPECT
DIURNAL MIXING TO DISRUPT THE WEAK FLOW DRIVING THE SHOWERS OVER THE
LAKES WITH DRIER AIR HELPING TO DRY UP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS OF SUN LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. COOL AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURE BELOW AVERAGE TODAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST STATES WILL RIDGE EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THIS TO TRAP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO HAVE KEPT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
INLAND FROM THE LAKES. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES NEAR THE LAKE
SHORES. SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE
WARMER SIDE WITH LOWS ONLY SLIDING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EXTENDING FROM A POLAR LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WHILE
STRONG RIDGING WILL BE FOUND OVER THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...HOWEVER A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL SHUNT A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS OUR
REGION WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. WHILE THE BULK OF THE DPVA
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO.

850MB TEMPS OF +4 TO +6C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...IN THE LOWER 60S. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENCROACHING CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ONLY PRODUCE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY. UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO BEHIND THE
FRONT COUPLED WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND +2C WILL GENERATE
PLENTY OF STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK...THOUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS IT WILL ESCAPE THE INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE. THE
COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
FOR A CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE MID 50S.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AROUND
TO THE EAST...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THIS CLEARING COUPLED WITH THE VERY DRY AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION COULD RESULT IN THE FIRST WIDESPREAD
FREEZE OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHILE FROST MAY BE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF AREAS NEAR THE LAKE ERIE
AND ONTARIO SHORELINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ARCTIC HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN OF EARLIER IN THE WEEK
BRIEFLY GIVES WAY TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST ON
FRIDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY BEFORE BOOSTING
READINGS INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE BOTH
DAYS THANKS TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A MUCH MORE COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE ESSENTIALLY THREE
TIERS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL BE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST IS OVER HUDSON BAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX. THE SECOND IS A SHORTWAVE
TRACKING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. THE THIRD AND
FINAL FACTOR IS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE THAT WILL BE
MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. TO VARYING
DEGREES THE GLOBAL MODELS PHASE ALL THREE OF THESE SYSTEMS AND BRING
THEM ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE X-FACTOR BEING THE SPEED
AND INTENSITY OF YET ANOTHER PLAYER...A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING
OUT OF THE MACKENZIE BASIN OF FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE MAY END UP DIGGING FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO GENERATE A LARGE SURFACE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF...OR ARRIVE TOO LATE
TO DO SO AND INSTEAD REINVIGORATE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SURFACE
LOW AS IT LIFTS INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. THE GLOBAL GEM IS EVEN
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH THIS FEATURE...HAVING IT MISS OUR
GREAT LAKES LOW ENTIRELY.

IN SPITE OF THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS BETWEEN THESE
SCENARIOS...THE TIMING OF IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IS SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR. AFTER ONE MORE WARM AND
DRY DAY SUNDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
APPROACH THE AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS AT WORK ALONG WITH A
DECENT RETURN FLOW OFF OF MOISTURE OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTIONS FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT FROM ODILE...WE COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS
COOL-DOWN WILL BE A FUNCTION OF THE FINAL TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWEST CANADIAN SHORTWAVE AND THE DEGREE TO WHICH IT ENHANCES THE
LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND SUBSEQUENT POSSIBLE OCCLUSION ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS UNDER MAINLY BKN SKIES LATE THIS MORNING.
ALSO SOME LINGERING ISOLATED LAKE ENHANCE SHOWERS HANGING ON EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT THESE TO WANE BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS OF SUN LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SCT/BKN MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON LIFTING TO ALL LOW VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE EAST FROM THE MIDWEST STATES. THIS
WILL TRAP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME MAINLY VFR LEVEL CLOUDS INLAND
FROM THE LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG WITH LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT
VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LAKE ONTARIO
NEAR SHORE WATERS HAS ALLOWED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE
BETWEEN SODUS BAY AND MEXICO BAY OTHERWISE WINDS AND WAVES IN OTHER
ZONES WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/SMITH
NEAR TERM...JM/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JM/SMITH
MARINE...JM/SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 161456
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1056 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOME LATE THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS
OF SUNSHINE...BEFORE MORE CLOUDS MAKE A RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO
WEDNESDAY THEN A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AS A COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
AVERAGE...HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
SHOULD HELP DRY UP ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.

REGIONAL RADARS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWING JUST A FEW ISOLATED LAKE
ENHANCED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS LEFT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND +4C
OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATER THERE IS JUST ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FOR THESE SHOWERS IN AN OTHERWISE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LATER THIS MORNING EXPECT
DIURNAL MIXING TO DISRUPT THE WEAK FLOW DRIVING THE SHOWERS OVER THE
LAKES WITH DRIER AIR HELPING TO DRY UP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS OF SUN LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. COOL AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURE BELOW AVERAGE TODAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST STATES WILL RIDGE EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THIS TO TRAP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO HAVE KEPT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
INLAND FROM THE LAKES. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES NEAR THE LAKE
SHORES. SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE
WARMER SIDE WITH LOWS ONLY SLIDING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EXTENDING FROM A POLAR LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WHILE
STRONG RIDGING WILL BE FOUND OVER THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...HOWEVER A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL SHUNT A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS OUR
REGION WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. WHILE THE BULK OF THE DPVA
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO.

850MB TEMPS OF +4 TO +6C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...IN THE LOWER 60S. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENCROACHING CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ONLY PRODUCE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY. UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO BEHIND THE
FRONT COUPLED WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND +2C WILL GENERATE
PLENTY OF STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK...THOUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS IT WILL ESCAPE THE INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE. THE
COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
FOR A CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE MID 50S.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AROUND
TO THE EAST...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THIS CLEARING COUPLED WITH THE VERY DRY AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION COULD RESULT IN THE FIRST WIDESPREAD
FREEZE OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHILE FROST MAY BE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF AREAS NEAR THE LAKE ERIE
AND ONTARIO SHORELINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ARCTIC HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN OF EARLIER IN THE WEEK
BRIEFLY GIVES WAY TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST ON
FRIDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY BEFORE BOOSTING
READINGS INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE BOTH
DAYS THANKS TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A MUCH MORE COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE ESSENTIALLY THREE
TIERS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL BE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST IS OVER HUDSON BAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX. THE SECOND IS A SHORTWAVE
TRACKING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. THE THIRD AND
FINAL FACTOR IS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE THAT WILL BE
MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. TO VARYING
DEGREES THE GLOBAL MODELS PHASE ALL THREE OF THESE SYSTEMS AND BRING
THEM ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE X-FACTOR BEING THE SPEED
AND INTENSITY OF YET ANOTHER PLAYER...A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING
OUT OF THE MACKENZIE BASIN OF FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE MAY END UP DIGGING FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO GENERATE A LARGE SURFACE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF...OR ARRIVE TOO LATE
TO DO SO AND INSTEAD REINVIGORATE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SURFACE
LOW AS IT LIFTS INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. THE GLOBAL GEM IS EVEN
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH THIS FEATURE...HAVING IT MISS OUR
GREAT LAKES LOW ENTIRELY.

IN SPITE OF THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS BETWEEN THESE
SCENARIOS...THE TIMING OF IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IS SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR. AFTER ONE MORE WARM AND
DRY DAY SUNDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
APPROACH THE AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS AT WORK ALONG WITH A
DECENT RETURN FLOW OFF OF MOISTURE OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTIONS FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT FROM ODILE...WE COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS
COOL-DOWN WILL BE A FUNCTION OF THE FINAL TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWEST CANADIAN SHORTWAVE AND THE DEGREE TO WHICH IT ENHANCES THE
LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND SUBSEQUENT POSSIBLE OCCLUSION ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS UNDER MAINLY BKN SKIES LATE THIS MORNING.
ALSO SOME LINGERING ISOLATED LAKE ENHANCE SHOWERS HANGING ON EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT THESE TO WANE BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS OF SUN LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SCT/BKN MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON LIFTING TO ALL LOW VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE EAST FROM THE MIDWEST STATES. THIS
WILL TRAP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME MAINLY VFR LEVEL CLOUDS INLAND
FROM THE LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG WITH LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT
VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LAKE ONTARIO
NEAR SHORE WATERS HAS ALLOWED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE
BETWEEN SODUS BAY AND MEXICO BAY OTHERWISE WINDS AND WAVES IN OTHER
ZONES WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/SMITH
NEAR TERM...JM/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JM/SMITH
MARINE...JM/SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 161456
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1056 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOME LATE THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS
OF SUNSHINE...BEFORE MORE CLOUDS MAKE A RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO
WEDNESDAY THEN A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AS A COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
AVERAGE...HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
SHOULD HELP DRY UP ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.

REGIONAL RADARS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWING JUST A FEW ISOLATED LAKE
ENHANCED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS LEFT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND +4C
OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATER THERE IS JUST ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FOR THESE SHOWERS IN AN OTHERWISE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LATER THIS MORNING EXPECT
DIURNAL MIXING TO DISRUPT THE WEAK FLOW DRIVING THE SHOWERS OVER THE
LAKES WITH DRIER AIR HELPING TO DRY UP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS OF SUN LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. COOL AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURE BELOW AVERAGE TODAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST STATES WILL RIDGE EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THIS TO TRAP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO HAVE KEPT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
INLAND FROM THE LAKES. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES NEAR THE LAKE
SHORES. SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE
WARMER SIDE WITH LOWS ONLY SLIDING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EXTENDING FROM A POLAR LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WHILE
STRONG RIDGING WILL BE FOUND OVER THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...HOWEVER A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL SHUNT A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS OUR
REGION WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. WHILE THE BULK OF THE DPVA
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO.

850MB TEMPS OF +4 TO +6C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...IN THE LOWER 60S. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENCROACHING CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ONLY PRODUCE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY. UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO BEHIND THE
FRONT COUPLED WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND +2C WILL GENERATE
PLENTY OF STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK...THOUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS IT WILL ESCAPE THE INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE. THE
COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
FOR A CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE MID 50S.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AROUND
TO THE EAST...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THIS CLEARING COUPLED WITH THE VERY DRY AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION COULD RESULT IN THE FIRST WIDESPREAD
FREEZE OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHILE FROST MAY BE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF AREAS NEAR THE LAKE ERIE
AND ONTARIO SHORELINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ARCTIC HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN OF EARLIER IN THE WEEK
BRIEFLY GIVES WAY TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST ON
FRIDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY BEFORE BOOSTING
READINGS INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE BOTH
DAYS THANKS TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A MUCH MORE COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE ESSENTIALLY THREE
TIERS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL BE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST IS OVER HUDSON BAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX. THE SECOND IS A SHORTWAVE
TRACKING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. THE THIRD AND
FINAL FACTOR IS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE THAT WILL BE
MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. TO VARYING
DEGREES THE GLOBAL MODELS PHASE ALL THREE OF THESE SYSTEMS AND BRING
THEM ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE X-FACTOR BEING THE SPEED
AND INTENSITY OF YET ANOTHER PLAYER...A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING
OUT OF THE MACKENZIE BASIN OF FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE MAY END UP DIGGING FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO GENERATE A LARGE SURFACE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF...OR ARRIVE TOO LATE
TO DO SO AND INSTEAD REINVIGORATE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SURFACE
LOW AS IT LIFTS INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. THE GLOBAL GEM IS EVEN
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH THIS FEATURE...HAVING IT MISS OUR
GREAT LAKES LOW ENTIRELY.

IN SPITE OF THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS BETWEEN THESE
SCENARIOS...THE TIMING OF IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IS SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR. AFTER ONE MORE WARM AND
DRY DAY SUNDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
APPROACH THE AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS AT WORK ALONG WITH A
DECENT RETURN FLOW OFF OF MOISTURE OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTIONS FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT FROM ODILE...WE COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS
COOL-DOWN WILL BE A FUNCTION OF THE FINAL TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWEST CANADIAN SHORTWAVE AND THE DEGREE TO WHICH IT ENHANCES THE
LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND SUBSEQUENT POSSIBLE OCCLUSION ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS UNDER MAINLY BKN SKIES LATE THIS MORNING.
ALSO SOME LINGERING ISOLATED LAKE ENHANCE SHOWERS HANGING ON EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT THESE TO WANE BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS OF SUN LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SCT/BKN MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON LIFTING TO ALL LOW VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE EAST FROM THE MIDWEST STATES. THIS
WILL TRAP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME MAINLY VFR LEVEL CLOUDS INLAND
FROM THE LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG WITH LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT
VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LAKE ONTARIO
NEAR SHORE WATERS HAS ALLOWED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE
BETWEEN SODUS BAY AND MEXICO BAY OTHERWISE WINDS AND WAVES IN OTHER
ZONES WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/SMITH
NEAR TERM...JM/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JM/SMITH
MARINE...JM/SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 161456
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1056 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOME LATE THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS
OF SUNSHINE...BEFORE MORE CLOUDS MAKE A RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO
WEDNESDAY THEN A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AS A COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
AVERAGE...HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
SHOULD HELP DRY UP ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.

REGIONAL RADARS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWING JUST A FEW ISOLATED LAKE
ENHANCED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS LEFT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND +4C
OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATER THERE IS JUST ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FOR THESE SHOWERS IN AN OTHERWISE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LATER THIS MORNING EXPECT
DIURNAL MIXING TO DISRUPT THE WEAK FLOW DRIVING THE SHOWERS OVER THE
LAKES WITH DRIER AIR HELPING TO DRY UP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS OF SUN LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. COOL AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURE BELOW AVERAGE TODAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST STATES WILL RIDGE EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THIS TO TRAP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO HAVE KEPT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
INLAND FROM THE LAKES. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES NEAR THE LAKE
SHORES. SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE
WARMER SIDE WITH LOWS ONLY SLIDING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EXTENDING FROM A POLAR LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WHILE
STRONG RIDGING WILL BE FOUND OVER THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...HOWEVER A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL SHUNT A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS OUR
REGION WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. WHILE THE BULK OF THE DPVA
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO.

850MB TEMPS OF +4 TO +6C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...IN THE LOWER 60S. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENCROACHING CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ONLY PRODUCE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY. UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO BEHIND THE
FRONT COUPLED WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND +2C WILL GENERATE
PLENTY OF STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK...THOUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS IT WILL ESCAPE THE INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE. THE
COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
FOR A CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE MID 50S.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AROUND
TO THE EAST...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THIS CLEARING COUPLED WITH THE VERY DRY AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION COULD RESULT IN THE FIRST WIDESPREAD
FREEZE OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHILE FROST MAY BE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF AREAS NEAR THE LAKE ERIE
AND ONTARIO SHORELINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ARCTIC HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN OF EARLIER IN THE WEEK
BRIEFLY GIVES WAY TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST ON
FRIDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY BEFORE BOOSTING
READINGS INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE BOTH
DAYS THANKS TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A MUCH MORE COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE ESSENTIALLY THREE
TIERS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL BE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST IS OVER HUDSON BAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX. THE SECOND IS A SHORTWAVE
TRACKING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. THE THIRD AND
FINAL FACTOR IS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE THAT WILL BE
MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. TO VARYING
DEGREES THE GLOBAL MODELS PHASE ALL THREE OF THESE SYSTEMS AND BRING
THEM ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE X-FACTOR BEING THE SPEED
AND INTENSITY OF YET ANOTHER PLAYER...A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING
OUT OF THE MACKENZIE BASIN OF FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE MAY END UP DIGGING FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO GENERATE A LARGE SURFACE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF...OR ARRIVE TOO LATE
TO DO SO AND INSTEAD REINVIGORATE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SURFACE
LOW AS IT LIFTS INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. THE GLOBAL GEM IS EVEN
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH THIS FEATURE...HAVING IT MISS OUR
GREAT LAKES LOW ENTIRELY.

IN SPITE OF THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS BETWEEN THESE
SCENARIOS...THE TIMING OF IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IS SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR. AFTER ONE MORE WARM AND
DRY DAY SUNDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
APPROACH THE AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS AT WORK ALONG WITH A
DECENT RETURN FLOW OFF OF MOISTURE OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTIONS FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT FROM ODILE...WE COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS
COOL-DOWN WILL BE A FUNCTION OF THE FINAL TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWEST CANADIAN SHORTWAVE AND THE DEGREE TO WHICH IT ENHANCES THE
LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND SUBSEQUENT POSSIBLE OCCLUSION ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS UNDER MAINLY BKN SKIES LATE THIS MORNING.
ALSO SOME LINGERING ISOLATED LAKE ENHANCE SHOWERS HANGING ON EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT THESE TO WANE BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS OF SUN LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SCT/BKN MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON LIFTING TO ALL LOW VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE EAST FROM THE MIDWEST STATES. THIS
WILL TRAP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME MAINLY VFR LEVEL CLOUDS INLAND
FROM THE LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG WITH LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT
VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LAKE ONTARIO
NEAR SHORE WATERS HAS ALLOWED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE
BETWEEN SODUS BAY AND MEXICO BAY OTHERWISE WINDS AND WAVES IN OTHER
ZONES WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/SMITH
NEAR TERM...JM/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JM/SMITH
MARINE...JM/SMITH






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 161448
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1048 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE VICINITY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN THROUGH FRIDAY. IT THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXITING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING EAST
OF THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR LESS FORCING FOR LIFT GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE
CLEARING THE EASTERN SECTIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONVERGENCE AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE A HIGHER COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
STILL MOIST LOW LEVELS. WITH GROUNDS WET FROM RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS LOWERED A FEW DEGREES AND THEREFORE MAX TEMPS WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES LOWER CONSIDERING THE WINDS ARE LIGHT SO THE
DOWNSLOPE WILL NOT BE AS EFFICIENT. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE MORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...CLEARING OUT THE SKY. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL THEN COMBINE
WITH THE CLEAR SKY FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT BELOW NORMAL.

LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN RESULTS IN A SUNNY DAY FOR
WEDNESDAY. SOME CLOUDS THEN PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. 850MB TEMP FALLS ABOUT A
DEGREE FROM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD ENABLE THE
WARMEST SPOTS INLAND TO REACH THE MID 70S...WITH AROUND 70/LOW 70S
FOR THE OTHER AREAS.

AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK DURING WEDS/WEDS NIGHT DUE TO SWELLS FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM EDOUARD...SITUATED WELL OUT TO SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE H5 FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF TROUGHS ALONG
BOTH COASTS OF THE CONUS WITH RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD INTO FRI...BUT THEN NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES
BEGIN TO APPEAR IN THE FLOW LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US THU MORNING WILL LIFT WITH
RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH SAT. A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NE SAT WILL GIVE
WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS SUN AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W.
AS STATED ABOVE...FORECAST DETAILS BECOME FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ON
WITH THE EC THE STRONGEST ALOFT...CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA BY 00Z SUN WHILE THE CMC...GFS AND UKMET MAINTAIN AN
OPEN WAVE ALTHOUGH THESE ALL HAVE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES
AS WELL. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN ITS SLOW MOVEMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN US.

HAVE KEPT THU DRY ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS OR
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER AROUND.
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL
TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRI AND SLIDE OFFSHORE ON SAT. IT IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON THU...THEN FALL
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW ON FRI BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A WARMING TREND
THEN DEVELOPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT SAT AND SUN NIGHTS WHERE THEY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST LATE.

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND WILL END WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS.
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS/VSBY WILL ALSO IMPROVE AS SHOWERS END AND
CLEARING BEGINS. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS FORECASTS FOR
DETAILS.

WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC TODAY. LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OR NORTHEAST WILL VARY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. A BRIEF SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST IS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS SETTLE BACK NW LATE IN THE DAY. SPEEDS
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10 KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CIG/VSBY THIS MORNING AND FOR
WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAY REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CIG/VSBY THIS MORNING AND
FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CIG/VSBY THIS MORNING AND
FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CIG/VSBY THIS MORNING AND
FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAY REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CIG/VSBY THIS MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE. HOWEVER...SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WILL BUILD OCEAN SEAS INTO THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD. LEANED CLOSED TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE
MODEL GUIDANCE...KEEPING SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SWELLS FROM EDOUARD ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WILL BE DECREASING OVER TIME. SUB ADVSY CONDS WILL
PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THU/THU NIGHT...BUT AN INCREASING NE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI/FRI
NIGHT. GUSTS COULD ALSO REACH SCA LEVELS...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU NIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH
ARE FORECAST WITH SHOWERS...MAINLY THIS MORNING. NO RAINFALL IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC/24
HYDROLOGY...24/JM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 161448
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1048 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE VICINITY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN THROUGH FRIDAY. IT THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXITING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING EAST
OF THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR LESS FORCING FOR LIFT GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE
CLEARING THE EASTERN SECTIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONVERGENCE AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE A HIGHER COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
STILL MOIST LOW LEVELS. WITH GROUNDS WET FROM RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS LOWERED A FEW DEGREES AND THEREFORE MAX TEMPS WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES LOWER CONSIDERING THE WINDS ARE LIGHT SO THE
DOWNSLOPE WILL NOT BE AS EFFICIENT. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE MORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...CLEARING OUT THE SKY. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL THEN COMBINE
WITH THE CLEAR SKY FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT BELOW NORMAL.

LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN RESULTS IN A SUNNY DAY FOR
WEDNESDAY. SOME CLOUDS THEN PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. 850MB TEMP FALLS ABOUT A
DEGREE FROM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD ENABLE THE
WARMEST SPOTS INLAND TO REACH THE MID 70S...WITH AROUND 70/LOW 70S
FOR THE OTHER AREAS.

AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK DURING WEDS/WEDS NIGHT DUE TO SWELLS FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM EDOUARD...SITUATED WELL OUT TO SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE H5 FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF TROUGHS ALONG
BOTH COASTS OF THE CONUS WITH RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD INTO FRI...BUT THEN NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES
BEGIN TO APPEAR IN THE FLOW LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US THU MORNING WILL LIFT WITH
RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH SAT. A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NE SAT WILL GIVE
WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS SUN AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W.
AS STATED ABOVE...FORECAST DETAILS BECOME FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ON
WITH THE EC THE STRONGEST ALOFT...CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA BY 00Z SUN WHILE THE CMC...GFS AND UKMET MAINTAIN AN
OPEN WAVE ALTHOUGH THESE ALL HAVE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES
AS WELL. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN ITS SLOW MOVEMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN US.

HAVE KEPT THU DRY ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS OR
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER AROUND.
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL
TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRI AND SLIDE OFFSHORE ON SAT. IT IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON THU...THEN FALL
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW ON FRI BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A WARMING TREND
THEN DEVELOPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT SAT AND SUN NIGHTS WHERE THEY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST LATE.

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND WILL END WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS.
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS/VSBY WILL ALSO IMPROVE AS SHOWERS END AND
CLEARING BEGINS. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS FORECASTS FOR
DETAILS.

WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC TODAY. LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OR NORTHEAST WILL VARY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. A BRIEF SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST IS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS SETTLE BACK NW LATE IN THE DAY. SPEEDS
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10 KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CIG/VSBY THIS MORNING AND FOR
WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAY REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CIG/VSBY THIS MORNING AND
FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CIG/VSBY THIS MORNING AND
FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CIG/VSBY THIS MORNING AND
FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAY REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CIG/VSBY THIS MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE. HOWEVER...SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WILL BUILD OCEAN SEAS INTO THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD. LEANED CLOSED TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE
MODEL GUIDANCE...KEEPING SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SWELLS FROM EDOUARD ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WILL BE DECREASING OVER TIME. SUB ADVSY CONDS WILL
PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THU/THU NIGHT...BUT AN INCREASING NE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI/FRI
NIGHT. GUSTS COULD ALSO REACH SCA LEVELS...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU NIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH
ARE FORECAST WITH SHOWERS...MAINLY THIS MORNING. NO RAINFALL IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC/24
HYDROLOGY...24/JM









000
FXUS61 KBTV 161445
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1045 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THIS EVENING. GENERALLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY EXITED TO THE
EAST AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED FORCING SHIFTS INTO
NH/ME. JUST THE CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE MIDDAY PERIOD...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL/ERN VT.
NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE LOW
LEVELS...SO ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING LATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL SHIFT LIGHT
WEST 5-10 MPH THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. AFTER LOW CLOUDS DEPART OR DISSIPATE...LOOK FOR SOME
FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME 30S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY...WE`LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY.
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WITH
PARTIAL SUN WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID
60S IN THE VALLEYS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT...WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
BULK OF MOISTURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH LATE...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EXCEPT
FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING...THURSDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY...WITH DECREASING
CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
PREDOMINATELY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...TRENDING UNSETTLED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDEST AIR-MASS OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR DROPS INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS JUST BELOW 0C AND
AT 925MB JUST A LITTLE ABOVE ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. THIS WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY END THE GROWING
SEASON FOR MANY.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 50S...BUT
PUSHING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA INTENSIFIES
ENTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH IS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PARALLEL TO THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT...SLOWING THE SYSTEMS OVERALL
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. WITH THAT IN MIND...THINKING WE`LL SEE A
RELATIVELY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING IN THE 50S...AND
A WARM...PLEASANT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

PRECIP FINALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY DRIER AT MID-LEVELS
COMPARED TO THE GFS SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION...BUT WHEN ARE
THEY NOT 7 DAYS OUT. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS A LIGHT
EVENT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON
RADAR WILL DISSIPATE TOWARDS MID-DAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z...MAINLY EAST OF KMSS. SKIES SLOWLY
SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND
ENOUGH CLEARING...KMPV AND KSLK WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LIFR FOG.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN EARLY MORNING
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 161445
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1045 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THIS EVENING. GENERALLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY EXITED TO THE
EAST AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED FORCING SHIFTS INTO
NH/ME. JUST THE CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE MIDDAY PERIOD...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL/ERN VT.
NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE LOW
LEVELS...SO ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING LATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL SHIFT LIGHT
WEST 5-10 MPH THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. AFTER LOW CLOUDS DEPART OR DISSIPATE...LOOK FOR SOME
FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME 30S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY...WE`LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY.
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WITH
PARTIAL SUN WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID
60S IN THE VALLEYS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT...WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
BULK OF MOISTURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH LATE...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EXCEPT
FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING...THURSDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY...WITH DECREASING
CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
PREDOMINATELY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...TRENDING UNSETTLED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDEST AIR-MASS OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR DROPS INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS JUST BELOW 0C AND
AT 925MB JUST A LITTLE ABOVE ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. THIS WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY END THE GROWING
SEASON FOR MANY.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 50S...BUT
PUSHING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA INTENSIFIES
ENTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH IS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PARALLEL TO THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT...SLOWING THE SYSTEMS OVERALL
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. WITH THAT IN MIND...THINKING WE`LL SEE A
RELATIVELY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING IN THE 50S...AND
A WARM...PLEASANT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

PRECIP FINALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY DRIER AT MID-LEVELS
COMPARED TO THE GFS SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION...BUT WHEN ARE
THEY NOT 7 DAYS OUT. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS A LIGHT
EVENT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON
RADAR WILL DISSIPATE TOWARDS MID-DAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z...MAINLY EAST OF KMSS. SKIES SLOWLY
SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND
ENOUGH CLEARING...KMPV AND KSLK WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LIFR FOG.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN EARLY MORNING
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF






000
FXUS61 KBGM 161418
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1018 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL PASS EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE GONE BY SUNRISE...BUT CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY. COLD DRY AIR COULD CAUSE FROST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE... JUST ISOLD SHWRS/SPRINKLES REMAIN OVER OUR NRN
ZNS LATE THIS MRNG...OWING TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE NWLY
FLOW. AS THE COLUMN GRADUALLY DRIES OUT AND SINKING MOTION SETS
IN WITH TIME...ANY LGT PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BY EARLY AFTN...WITH SKIES
ALSO BCMG PTLY SUNNY MOST AREAS.

BASED ON 12Z SNDGS AND THE EXPECTATION OF SLGT LOW-LVL CAA THIS
AFTN...OUR FCST HIGHS (RANGING IN THE 60S) LOOK REASONABLE.

PREV DISC... 3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED INTO WRN NY ATTM. LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER HALF AN INCH NOW AND WITH THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD STAY THAT
WAY. THE FAR SOUTH AND SE WILL NOT SEE THAT MUCH RAIN. DRY NOW AND
BULK OF RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF THERE THIS MORNING. STEADY RAIN
WILL EXIT THE WRN CATSKILLS BY 8 AM...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
COULD BE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT DAYTIME MORNING IN CENT NY AND
CATSKILLS UNTIL MIDDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT CAA FROM THE NW WILL START. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
COMBINED WITH LAKE MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM
THE MIDWEST. WITH THE CLOUDS MODEL GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT HAS COME IN WARMER. VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A FROST AND THEN
ONLY IN NE ONEIDA AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED THE HIGH WEAKENS BUT IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

WED NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
EVEN LARGER SFC HIGH COMING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN KEEP
TEMPS UP AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IF ANYTHING. SCHC POPS STEUBEN TO ONEIDA COUNTIES IN NY LATE WED
NGT AND THU MORNING.

THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NE US FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING
A COLD CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CAUSE FROST TO
FORM. THE COLDEST TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE FROM DELAWARE
TO ONEIDA COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHWRS MVG OUT OF THE AREA ATTM. XPCT CONTD IMPRVMT BHD THE FNT AND
SHWRS AS DRIER AIR WRKS INTO THE REGION...WITH ALL SITES VFR BY
ARND 14Z. VFR CONDS CONT THRU THE DAY INTO THE EVE. OVRNGT...LGT
WINDS WELL UP INTO THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH CLR SKIES AND WET GND
SHD LEAD TO XTNSV FOG DVLPG WITH VLIFR AT ELM/BGM/ITH AND IFR AT
AVP THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM






000
FXUS61 KBGM 161418
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1018 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL PASS EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE GONE BY SUNRISE...BUT CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY. COLD DRY AIR COULD CAUSE FROST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE... JUST ISOLD SHWRS/SPRINKLES REMAIN OVER OUR NRN
ZNS LATE THIS MRNG...OWING TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE NWLY
FLOW. AS THE COLUMN GRADUALLY DRIES OUT AND SINKING MOTION SETS
IN WITH TIME...ANY LGT PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BY EARLY AFTN...WITH SKIES
ALSO BCMG PTLY SUNNY MOST AREAS.

BASED ON 12Z SNDGS AND THE EXPECTATION OF SLGT LOW-LVL CAA THIS
AFTN...OUR FCST HIGHS (RANGING IN THE 60S) LOOK REASONABLE.

PREV DISC... 3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED INTO WRN NY ATTM. LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER HALF AN INCH NOW AND WITH THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD STAY THAT
WAY. THE FAR SOUTH AND SE WILL NOT SEE THAT MUCH RAIN. DRY NOW AND
BULK OF RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF THERE THIS MORNING. STEADY RAIN
WILL EXIT THE WRN CATSKILLS BY 8 AM...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
COULD BE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT DAYTIME MORNING IN CENT NY AND
CATSKILLS UNTIL MIDDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT CAA FROM THE NW WILL START. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
COMBINED WITH LAKE MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM
THE MIDWEST. WITH THE CLOUDS MODEL GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT HAS COME IN WARMER. VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A FROST AND THEN
ONLY IN NE ONEIDA AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED THE HIGH WEAKENS BUT IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

WED NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
EVEN LARGER SFC HIGH COMING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN KEEP
TEMPS UP AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IF ANYTHING. SCHC POPS STEUBEN TO ONEIDA COUNTIES IN NY LATE WED
NGT AND THU MORNING.

THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NE US FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING
A COLD CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CAUSE FROST TO
FORM. THE COLDEST TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE FROM DELAWARE
TO ONEIDA COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHWRS MVG OUT OF THE AREA ATTM. XPCT CONTD IMPRVMT BHD THE FNT AND
SHWRS AS DRIER AIR WRKS INTO THE REGION...WITH ALL SITES VFR BY
ARND 14Z. VFR CONDS CONT THRU THE DAY INTO THE EVE. OVRNGT...LGT
WINDS WELL UP INTO THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH CLR SKIES AND WET GND
SHD LEAD TO XTNSV FOG DVLPG WITH VLIFR AT ELM/BGM/ITH AND IFR AT
AVP THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 161322
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR
AND COOL...FALL LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM...RADAR SHOWS HEAVIEST BAND OF RAIN AND SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM FAR SOUTHEASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY VERMONT...ACROSS
SOUTHEAST BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASS AND THEN ACROSS ALL OF LITCHFIELD
COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

BEHIND THIS MAIN AREA OF RAIN...RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ALL PRECIPITATION IS MOVING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES ARE OVERCAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH SOME SMALL BREAKS NOW OVER WESTERN ULSTER COUNTY.
GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORNING SOUNDING...WEAK
COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SUGGEST THAT WE MAY HAVE TO LOWER
MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW LEFT THEM ALONE IN THE
VALLEYS AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL
ADJUST VALLEY TEMPS LATER THIS MORNING IF NECESSARY.

OTHER MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDDED FIELDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS...
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE DIMINISH...CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK
UP...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP MORE
QUICKLY. CLOUDS MAY EVENTUALLY BREAK UP IN VALLEY AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

ASSUMING THE CLOUDS LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...HAVE TRENDED MAX
TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER MAV MOS...WITH GENERALLY MID/UPPER 60S
EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...WARMER MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING OCCUR...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY CALL REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES...UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WHICH COULD ACT TO TRAP LAKE MOISTURE IN A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR MANNER TO SUN NT/MON AM. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AT TIMES.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...ASSUMING THAT
AT LEAST SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. IN ADDITION...EVEN
IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
SO...FORECAST MINS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...WARMEST IN VALLEY AREAS. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...NO FROST
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

WED-WED NT...AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF/LIFT...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING 65-70 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WED NT...SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STREAM SE ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA. SOME
SHOWERS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

THU-THU NT...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY. SO...IN GENERAL...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THU...WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. AGAIN...NO POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SEEP SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ESP FOR THU NT. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND MAY PERSIST JUST LONG ENOUGH IN THE
VALLEY AREAS TO LIMIT OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VT...TEMPS COULD DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...EVEN WITH SOME WIND. SO...THESE AREAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...AND
65-70 TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF FA TO REMAIN DRY AS FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS
DELAYING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
12Z WED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WHEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO FOG.

ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ENDING AROUND 14Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH BKN  CIGS
MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH THE MORNING. EVENTUALLY...ALL
SITES LOOK TO SCT OUT BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AND SKC CONDS THIS EVENING. FOG WILL BE DEVELOPING AT KGFL
AFT 05Z AND KPSF AFT 06Z WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS
TO IFR.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS TODAY BECOMING CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL TO 50-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO
90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION EXPECTED. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-55 PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-20 MPH...THEN DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK
INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WED...AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND GENERALLY ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE
LOWEST AMTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THESE RAINFALL AMTS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...SND/KL
SHORT TERM...SND/KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 161322
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR
AND COOL...FALL LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM...RADAR SHOWS HEAVIEST BAND OF RAIN AND SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM FAR SOUTHEASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY VERMONT...ACROSS
SOUTHEAST BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASS AND THEN ACROSS ALL OF LITCHFIELD
COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

BEHIND THIS MAIN AREA OF RAIN...RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ALL PRECIPITATION IS MOVING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES ARE OVERCAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH SOME SMALL BREAKS NOW OVER WESTERN ULSTER COUNTY.
GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORNING SOUNDING...WEAK
COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SUGGEST THAT WE MAY HAVE TO LOWER
MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW LEFT THEM ALONE IN THE
VALLEYS AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL
ADJUST VALLEY TEMPS LATER THIS MORNING IF NECESSARY.

OTHER MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDDED FIELDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS...
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE DIMINISH...CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK
UP...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP MORE
QUICKLY. CLOUDS MAY EVENTUALLY BREAK UP IN VALLEY AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

ASSUMING THE CLOUDS LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...HAVE TRENDED MAX
TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER MAV MOS...WITH GENERALLY MID/UPPER 60S
EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...WARMER MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING OCCUR...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY CALL REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES...UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WHICH COULD ACT TO TRAP LAKE MOISTURE IN A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR MANNER TO SUN NT/MON AM. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AT TIMES.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...ASSUMING THAT
AT LEAST SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. IN ADDITION...EVEN
IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
SO...FORECAST MINS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...WARMEST IN VALLEY AREAS. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...NO FROST
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

WED-WED NT...AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF/LIFT...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING 65-70 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WED NT...SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STREAM SE ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA. SOME
SHOWERS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

THU-THU NT...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY. SO...IN GENERAL...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THU...WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. AGAIN...NO POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SEEP SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ESP FOR THU NT. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND MAY PERSIST JUST LONG ENOUGH IN THE
VALLEY AREAS TO LIMIT OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VT...TEMPS COULD DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...EVEN WITH SOME WIND. SO...THESE AREAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...AND
65-70 TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF FA TO REMAIN DRY AS FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS
DELAYING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
12Z WED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WHEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO FOG.

ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ENDING AROUND 14Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH BKN  CIGS
MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH THE MORNING. EVENTUALLY...ALL
SITES LOOK TO SCT OUT BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AND SKC CONDS THIS EVENING. FOG WILL BE DEVELOPING AT KGFL
AFT 05Z AND KPSF AFT 06Z WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS
TO IFR.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS TODAY BECOMING CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL TO 50-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO
90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION EXPECTED. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-55 PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-20 MPH...THEN DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK
INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WED...AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND GENERALLY ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE
LOWEST AMTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THESE RAINFALL AMTS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...SND/KL
SHORT TERM...SND/KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 161322
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR
AND COOL...FALL LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM...RADAR SHOWS HEAVIEST BAND OF RAIN AND SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM FAR SOUTHEASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY VERMONT...ACROSS
SOUTHEAST BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASS AND THEN ACROSS ALL OF LITCHFIELD
COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

BEHIND THIS MAIN AREA OF RAIN...RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ALL PRECIPITATION IS MOVING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES ARE OVERCAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH SOME SMALL BREAKS NOW OVER WESTERN ULSTER COUNTY.
GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORNING SOUNDING...WEAK
COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SUGGEST THAT WE MAY HAVE TO LOWER
MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW LEFT THEM ALONE IN THE
VALLEYS AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL
ADJUST VALLEY TEMPS LATER THIS MORNING IF NECESSARY.

OTHER MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDDED FIELDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS...
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE DIMINISH...CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK
UP...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP MORE
QUICKLY. CLOUDS MAY EVENTUALLY BREAK UP IN VALLEY AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

ASSUMING THE CLOUDS LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...HAVE TRENDED MAX
TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER MAV MOS...WITH GENERALLY MID/UPPER 60S
EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...WARMER MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING OCCUR...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY CALL REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES...UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WHICH COULD ACT TO TRAP LAKE MOISTURE IN A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR MANNER TO SUN NT/MON AM. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AT TIMES.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...ASSUMING THAT
AT LEAST SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. IN ADDITION...EVEN
IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
SO...FORECAST MINS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...WARMEST IN VALLEY AREAS. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...NO FROST
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

WED-WED NT...AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF/LIFT...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING 65-70 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WED NT...SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STREAM SE ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA. SOME
SHOWERS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

THU-THU NT...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY. SO...IN GENERAL...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THU...WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. AGAIN...NO POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SEEP SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ESP FOR THU NT. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND MAY PERSIST JUST LONG ENOUGH IN THE
VALLEY AREAS TO LIMIT OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VT...TEMPS COULD DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...EVEN WITH SOME WIND. SO...THESE AREAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...AND
65-70 TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF FA TO REMAIN DRY AS FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS
DELAYING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
12Z WED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WHEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO FOG.

ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ENDING AROUND 14Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH BKN  CIGS
MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH THE MORNING. EVENTUALLY...ALL
SITES LOOK TO SCT OUT BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AND SKC CONDS THIS EVENING. FOG WILL BE DEVELOPING AT KGFL
AFT 05Z AND KPSF AFT 06Z WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS
TO IFR.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS TODAY BECOMING CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL TO 50-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO
90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION EXPECTED. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-55 PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-20 MPH...THEN DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK
INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WED...AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND GENERALLY ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE
LOWEST AMTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THESE RAINFALL AMTS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...SND/KL
SHORT TERM...SND/KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 161322
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR
AND COOL...FALL LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM...RADAR SHOWS HEAVIEST BAND OF RAIN AND SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM FAR SOUTHEASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY VERMONT...ACROSS
SOUTHEAST BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASS AND THEN ACROSS ALL OF LITCHFIELD
COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

BEHIND THIS MAIN AREA OF RAIN...RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ALL PRECIPITATION IS MOVING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES ARE OVERCAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH SOME SMALL BREAKS NOW OVER WESTERN ULSTER COUNTY.
GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORNING SOUNDING...WEAK
COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SUGGEST THAT WE MAY HAVE TO LOWER
MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW LEFT THEM ALONE IN THE
VALLEYS AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL
ADJUST VALLEY TEMPS LATER THIS MORNING IF NECESSARY.

OTHER MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDDED FIELDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS...
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE DIMINISH...CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK
UP...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP MORE
QUICKLY. CLOUDS MAY EVENTUALLY BREAK UP IN VALLEY AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

ASSUMING THE CLOUDS LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...HAVE TRENDED MAX
TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER MAV MOS...WITH GENERALLY MID/UPPER 60S
EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...WARMER MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING OCCUR...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY CALL REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES...UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WHICH COULD ACT TO TRAP LAKE MOISTURE IN A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR MANNER TO SUN NT/MON AM. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AT TIMES.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...ASSUMING THAT
AT LEAST SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. IN ADDITION...EVEN
IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
SO...FORECAST MINS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...WARMEST IN VALLEY AREAS. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...NO FROST
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

WED-WED NT...AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF/LIFT...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING 65-70 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WED NT...SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STREAM SE ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA. SOME
SHOWERS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

THU-THU NT...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY. SO...IN GENERAL...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THU...WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. AGAIN...NO POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SEEP SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ESP FOR THU NT. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND MAY PERSIST JUST LONG ENOUGH IN THE
VALLEY AREAS TO LIMIT OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VT...TEMPS COULD DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...EVEN WITH SOME WIND. SO...THESE AREAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...AND
65-70 TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF FA TO REMAIN DRY AS FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS
DELAYING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
12Z WED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WHEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO FOG.

ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ENDING AROUND 14Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH BKN  CIGS
MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH THE MORNING. EVENTUALLY...ALL
SITES LOOK TO SCT OUT BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AND SKC CONDS THIS EVENING. FOG WILL BE DEVELOPING AT KGFL
AFT 05Z AND KPSF AFT 06Z WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS
TO IFR.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS TODAY BECOMING CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL TO 50-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO
90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION EXPECTED. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-55 PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-20 MPH...THEN DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK
INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WED...AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND GENERALLY ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE
LOWEST AMTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THESE RAINFALL AMTS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...SND/KL
SHORT TERM...SND/KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL







000
FXUS61 KOKX 161305
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
905 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE VICINITY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY. IT THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IN THE VICINITY ALONG WITH LIFT IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE MID
AND UPPER LIFT EXITS EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH
SOME LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE...ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE 900-800MB
LAYER LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AND WITHOUT A STRONG
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THINKING IS THAT THE AFTERNOON ENDS UP WITH
CLOUDS OUTWEIGHING BLUE SKY FOR MOST SPOTS. A FULL-SUN AFTERNOON
WOULD PRODUCE MID-UPPER 70S FOR THE WARMEST AREAS GIVEN 8-9C 850MB
TEMPS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH NAM MOS...BUT CONSIDERING THE CLOUD
COVER...WENT WITH A NEAR-EVEN BLEND OF NAM AND MAV MOS AS THE MAVS
LOOKED A LITTLE TOO COOL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...CLEARING OUT THE SKY. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL THEN COMBINE
WITH THE CLEAR SKY FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT BELOW NORMAL.

LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN RESULTS IN A SUNNY DAY FOR
WEDNESDAY. SOME CLOUDS THEN PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. 850MB TEMP FALLS ABOUT A
DEGREE FROM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD ENABLE THE
WARMEST SPOTS INLAND TO REACH THE MID 70S...WITH AROUND 70/LOW 70S
FOR THE OTHER AREAS.

AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK DURING WEDS/WEDS NIGHT DUE TO SWELLS FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM EDOUARD...SITUATED WELL OUT TO SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE H5 FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF TROUGHS ALONG
BOTH COASTS OF THE CONUS WITH RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD INTO FRI...BUT THEN NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES
BEGIN TO APPEAR IN THE FLOW LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US THU MORNING WILL LIFT WITH
RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH SAT. A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NE SAT WILL GIVE
WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS SUN AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W.
AS STATED ABOVE...FORECAST DETAILS BECOME FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ON
WITH THE EC THE STRONGEST ALOFT...CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA BY 00Z SUN WHILE THE CMC...GFS AND UKMET MAINTAIN AN
OPEN WAVE ALTHOUGH THESE ALL HAVE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES
AS WELL. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN ITS SLOW MOVEMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN US.

HAVE KEPT THU DRY ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS OR
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER AROUND.
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL
TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRI AND SLIDE OFFSHORE ON SAT. IT IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON THU...THEN FALL
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW ON FRI BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A WARMING TREND
THEN DEVELOPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT SAT AND SUN NIGHTS WHERE THEY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST LATE.

BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING IN SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING
WILL TAKING PLACE. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS FORECASTS FOR
DETAILS.

WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC TODAY. LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
VARY AS THE TROUGH NEARS. A BRIEF SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NW IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE WINDS SETTLE BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY TO THE NW.
SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TODAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CIG/VSBY THIS MORNING AND FOR
WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAY REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CIG/VSBY THIS MORNING AND
FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CIG/VSBY THIS MORNING AND
FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CIG/VSBY THIS MORNING AND
FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAY REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CIG/VSBY THIS MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...HOWEVER SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WILL
BUILD OCEAN SEAS INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. LEANED CLOSED TO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE...KEEPING SEAS BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SWELLS FROM EDOUARD ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WILL BE DECREASING OVER TIME. SUB ADVSY CONDS WILL
PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THU/THU NIGHT...BUT AN INCREASING NE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI/FRI
NIGHT. GUSTS COULD ALSO REACH SCA LEVELS...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU NIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH
ARE FORECAST WITH SHOWERS...MAINLY THIS MORNING. NO RAINFALL IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...DS/PW
MARINE...JC/24
HYDROLOGY...JC/24/JM









000
FXUS61 KOKX 161305
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
905 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE VICINITY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY. IT THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IN THE VICINITY ALONG WITH LIFT IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE MID
AND UPPER LIFT EXITS EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH
SOME LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE...ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE 900-800MB
LAYER LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AND WITHOUT A STRONG
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THINKING IS THAT THE AFTERNOON ENDS UP WITH
CLOUDS OUTWEIGHING BLUE SKY FOR MOST SPOTS. A FULL-SUN AFTERNOON
WOULD PRODUCE MID-UPPER 70S FOR THE WARMEST AREAS GIVEN 8-9C 850MB
TEMPS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH NAM MOS...BUT CONSIDERING THE CLOUD
COVER...WENT WITH A NEAR-EVEN BLEND OF NAM AND MAV MOS AS THE MAVS
LOOKED A LITTLE TOO COOL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...CLEARING OUT THE SKY. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL THEN COMBINE
WITH THE CLEAR SKY FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT BELOW NORMAL.

LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN RESULTS IN A SUNNY DAY FOR
WEDNESDAY. SOME CLOUDS THEN PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. 850MB TEMP FALLS ABOUT A
DEGREE FROM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD ENABLE THE
WARMEST SPOTS INLAND TO REACH THE MID 70S...WITH AROUND 70/LOW 70S
FOR THE OTHER AREAS.

AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK DURING WEDS/WEDS NIGHT DUE TO SWELLS FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM EDOUARD...SITUATED WELL OUT TO SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE H5 FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF TROUGHS ALONG
BOTH COASTS OF THE CONUS WITH RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD INTO FRI...BUT THEN NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES
BEGIN TO APPEAR IN THE FLOW LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US THU MORNING WILL LIFT WITH
RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH SAT. A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NE SAT WILL GIVE
WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS SUN AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W.
AS STATED ABOVE...FORECAST DETAILS BECOME FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ON
WITH THE EC THE STRONGEST ALOFT...CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA BY 00Z SUN WHILE THE CMC...GFS AND UKMET MAINTAIN AN
OPEN WAVE ALTHOUGH THESE ALL HAVE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES
AS WELL. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN ITS SLOW MOVEMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN US.

HAVE KEPT THU DRY ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS OR
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER AROUND.
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL
TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRI AND SLIDE OFFSHORE ON SAT. IT IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON THU...THEN FALL
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW ON FRI BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A WARMING TREND
THEN DEVELOPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT SAT AND SUN NIGHTS WHERE THEY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST LATE.

BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING IN SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING
WILL TAKING PLACE. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS FORECASTS FOR
DETAILS.

WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC TODAY. LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
VARY AS THE TROUGH NEARS. A BRIEF SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NW IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE WINDS SETTLE BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY TO THE NW.
SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TODAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CIG/VSBY THIS MORNING AND FOR
WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAY REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CIG/VSBY THIS MORNING AND
FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CIG/VSBY THIS MORNING AND
FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CIG/VSBY THIS MORNING AND
FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAY REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CIG/VSBY THIS MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...HOWEVER SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WILL
BUILD OCEAN SEAS INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. LEANED CLOSED TO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE...KEEPING SEAS BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SWELLS FROM EDOUARD ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WILL BE DECREASING OVER TIME. SUB ADVSY CONDS WILL
PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THU/THU NIGHT...BUT AN INCREASING NE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI/FRI
NIGHT. GUSTS COULD ALSO REACH SCA LEVELS...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU NIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH
ARE FORECAST WITH SHOWERS...MAINLY THIS MORNING. NO RAINFALL IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...DS/PW
MARINE...JC/24
HYDROLOGY...JC/24/JM










000
FXUS61 KBUF 161154
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
754 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A CLOUDY START THIS MORNING...SUNSHINE WILL BACK A RETURN
IN THE AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY THEN A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS A COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
IS NOW EXITING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DAMP AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS MORNING. SOME ISOLATED /LIKELY LAKE
ENHANCED/ SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO NEAR
12Z. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND +4C OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATERS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY FOR THESE
SHOWERS IN AN OTHERWISE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LATER THIS MORNING EXPECT DIURNAL MIXING TO DISRUPT THE
WEAK FLOW DRIVING THE SHOWERS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRIER AIR HELPING
TO CLEAR OUT SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY MID AFTERNOON. THE WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE
THE LONGEST. COOL AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE BELOW AVERAGE
TODAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST STATES WILL RIDGE EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THIS TO TRAP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO HAVE KEPT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
INLAND FROM THE LAKES. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES NEAR THE LAKE
SHORES. SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE
WARMER SIDE WITH LOWS ONLY SLIDING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EXTENDING FROM A POLAR LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WHILE
STRONG RIDGING WILL BE FOUND OVER THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...HOWEVER A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL SHUNT A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS OUR
REGION WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. WHILE THE BULK OF THE DPVA
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO.

850MB TEMPS OF +4 TO +6C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...IN THE LOWER 60S. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENCROACHING CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ONLY PRODUCE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY. UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO BEHIND THE
FRONT COUPLED WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND +2C WILL GENERATE
PLENTY OF STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK...THOUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS IT WILL ESCAPE THE INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE. THE
COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
FOR A CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE MID 50S.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AROUND
TO THE EAST...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THIS CLEARING COUPLED WITH THE VERY DRY AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION COULD RESULT IN THE FIRST WIDESPREAD
FREEZE OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHILE FROST MAY BE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF AREAS NEAR THE LAKE ERIE
AND ONTARIO SHORELINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ARCTIC HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN OF EARLIER IN THE WEEK
BRIEFLY GIVES WAY TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST ON
FRIDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY BEFORE BOOSTING
READINGS INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE BOTH
DAYS THANKS TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A MUCH MORE COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE ESSENTIALLY THREE
TIERS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL BE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST IS OVER HUDSON BAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX. THE SECOND IS A SHORTWAVE
TRACKING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. THE THIRD AND
FINAL FACTOR IS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE THAT WILL BE
MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. TO VARYING
DEGREES THE GLOBAL MODELS PHASE ALL THREE OF THESE SYSTEMS AND BRING
THEM ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE X-FACTOR BEING THE SPEED
AND INTENSITY OF YET ANOTHER PLAYER...A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING
OUT OF THE MACKENZIE BASIN OF FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE MAY END UP DIGGING FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO GENERATE A LARGE SURFACE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF...OR ARRIVE TOO LATE
TO DO SO AND INSTEAD REINVIGORATE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SURFACE
LOW AS IT LIFTS INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. THE GLOBAL GEM IS EVEN
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH THIS FEATURE...HAVING IT MISS OUR
GREAT LAKES LOW ENTIRELY.

IN SPITE OF THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS BETWEEN THESE
SCENARIOS...THE TIMING OF IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IS SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR. AFTER ONE MORE WARM AND
DRY DAY SUNDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
APPROACH THE AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS AT WORK ALONG WITH A
DECENT RETURN FLOW OFF OF MOISTURE OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTIONS FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT FROM ODILE...WE COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS
COOL-DOWN WILL BE A FUNCTION OF THE FINAL TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWEST CANADIAN SHORTWAVE AND THE DEGREE TO WHICH IT ENHANCES THE
LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND SUBSEQUENT POSSIBLE OCCLUSION ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS UNDER OVC SKIES THIS MORNING. ALSO SOME
ISOLATED LAKE ENHANCE SHOWERS EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL BREAK UP FROM THE LAKES INLAND THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER SITES. TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES. THIS WILL TRAP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME VFR
LEVEL CLOUDS INLAND FROM THE LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG
MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG WITH LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT
VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LAKE ONTARIO NEAR SHORE WATERS
HAS ALLOWED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE BETWEEN SODUS BAY AND
MEXICO BAY OTHERWISE WINDS AND WAVES IN OTHER ZONES WILL REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 161154
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
754 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A CLOUDY START THIS MORNING...SUNSHINE WILL BACK A RETURN
IN THE AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY THEN A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS A COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
IS NOW EXITING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DAMP AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS MORNING. SOME ISOLATED /LIKELY LAKE
ENHANCED/ SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO NEAR
12Z. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND +4C OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATERS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY FOR THESE
SHOWERS IN AN OTHERWISE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LATER THIS MORNING EXPECT DIURNAL MIXING TO DISRUPT THE
WEAK FLOW DRIVING THE SHOWERS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRIER AIR HELPING
TO CLEAR OUT SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY MID AFTERNOON. THE WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE
THE LONGEST. COOL AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE BELOW AVERAGE
TODAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST STATES WILL RIDGE EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THIS TO TRAP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO HAVE KEPT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
INLAND FROM THE LAKES. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES NEAR THE LAKE
SHORES. SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE
WARMER SIDE WITH LOWS ONLY SLIDING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EXTENDING FROM A POLAR LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WHILE
STRONG RIDGING WILL BE FOUND OVER THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...HOWEVER A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL SHUNT A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS OUR
REGION WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. WHILE THE BULK OF THE DPVA
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO.

850MB TEMPS OF +4 TO +6C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...IN THE LOWER 60S. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENCROACHING CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ONLY PRODUCE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY. UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO BEHIND THE
FRONT COUPLED WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND +2C WILL GENERATE
PLENTY OF STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK...THOUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS IT WILL ESCAPE THE INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE. THE
COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
FOR A CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE MID 50S.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AROUND
TO THE EAST...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THIS CLEARING COUPLED WITH THE VERY DRY AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION COULD RESULT IN THE FIRST WIDESPREAD
FREEZE OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHILE FROST MAY BE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF AREAS NEAR THE LAKE ERIE
AND ONTARIO SHORELINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ARCTIC HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN OF EARLIER IN THE WEEK
BRIEFLY GIVES WAY TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST ON
FRIDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY BEFORE BOOSTING
READINGS INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE BOTH
DAYS THANKS TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A MUCH MORE COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE ESSENTIALLY THREE
TIERS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL BE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST IS OVER HUDSON BAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX. THE SECOND IS A SHORTWAVE
TRACKING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. THE THIRD AND
FINAL FACTOR IS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE THAT WILL BE
MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. TO VARYING
DEGREES THE GLOBAL MODELS PHASE ALL THREE OF THESE SYSTEMS AND BRING
THEM ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE X-FACTOR BEING THE SPEED
AND INTENSITY OF YET ANOTHER PLAYER...A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING
OUT OF THE MACKENZIE BASIN OF FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE MAY END UP DIGGING FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO GENERATE A LARGE SURFACE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF...OR ARRIVE TOO LATE
TO DO SO AND INSTEAD REINVIGORATE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SURFACE
LOW AS IT LIFTS INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. THE GLOBAL GEM IS EVEN
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH THIS FEATURE...HAVING IT MISS OUR
GREAT LAKES LOW ENTIRELY.

IN SPITE OF THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS BETWEEN THESE
SCENARIOS...THE TIMING OF IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IS SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR. AFTER ONE MORE WARM AND
DRY DAY SUNDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
APPROACH THE AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS AT WORK ALONG WITH A
DECENT RETURN FLOW OFF OF MOISTURE OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTIONS FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT FROM ODILE...WE COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS
COOL-DOWN WILL BE A FUNCTION OF THE FINAL TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWEST CANADIAN SHORTWAVE AND THE DEGREE TO WHICH IT ENHANCES THE
LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND SUBSEQUENT POSSIBLE OCCLUSION ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS UNDER OVC SKIES THIS MORNING. ALSO SOME
ISOLATED LAKE ENHANCE SHOWERS EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL BREAK UP FROM THE LAKES INLAND THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER SITES. TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES. THIS WILL TRAP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME VFR
LEVEL CLOUDS INLAND FROM THE LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG
MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG WITH LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT
VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LAKE ONTARIO NEAR SHORE WATERS
HAS ALLOWED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE BETWEEN SODUS BAY AND
MEXICO BAY OTHERWISE WINDS AND WAVES IN OTHER ZONES WILL REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 161130
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
730 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THIS EVENING. GENERALLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST RADAR SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH PRECIP WINDING DOWN
ACROSS SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
GENERATING THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT EAST OF VERMONT THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND BULK OF
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 15Z...WITH JUST THE
CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THROUGH THE
MIDDAY PERIOD. NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN
THE LOW LEVELS...SO ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING LATE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. AFTER LOW CLOUDS DEPART OR DISSIPATE...LOOK FOR SOME
FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME 30S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY...WE`LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY.
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WITH
PARTIAL SUN WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID
60S IN THE VALLEYS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT...WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
BULK OF MOISTURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH LATE...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EXCEPT
FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING...THURSDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY...WITH DECREASING
CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
PREDOMINATELY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...TRENDING UNSETTLED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDEST AIR-MASS OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR DROPS INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS JUST BELOW 0C AND
AT 925MB JUST A LITTLE ABOVE ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. THIS WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY END THE GROWING
SEASON FOR MANY.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 50S...BUT
PUSHING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA INTENSIFIES
ENTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH IS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PARALLEL TO THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT...SLOWING THE SYSTEMS OVERALL
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. WITH THAT IN MIND...THINKING WE`LL SEE A
RELATIVELY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING IN THE 50S...AND
A WARM...PLEASANT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

PRECIP FINALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY DRIER AT MID-LEVELS
COMPARED TO THE GFS SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION...BUT WHEN ARE
THEY NOT 7 DAYS OUT. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS A LIGHT
EVENT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON
RADAR WILL DISSIPATE TOWARDS MID-DAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z...MAINLY EAST OF KMSS. SKIES SLOWLY
SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND
ENOUGH CLEARING...KMPV AND KSLK WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LIFR FOG.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN EARLY MORNING
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 161125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THIS EVENING. GENERALLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST RADAR SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH PRECIP WINDING DOWN
ACROSS SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
GENERATING THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT EAST OF VERMONT THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND BULK OF
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 15Z...WITH JUST THE
CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THROUGH THE
MIDDAY PERIOD. NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN
THE LOW LEVELS...SO ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING LATE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. AFTER LOW CLOUDS DEPART OR DISSIPATE...LOOK FOR SOME
FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME 30S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY...WE`LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY.
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WITH
PARTIAL SUN WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID
60S IN THE VALLEYS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT...WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
BULK OF MOISTURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH LATE...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EXCEPT
FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING...THURSDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY...WITH DECREASING
CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
PREDOMINATELY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...TRENDING UNSETTLED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDEST AIR-MASS OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR DROPS INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS JUST BELOW 0C AND
AT 925MB JUST A LITTLE ABOVE ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. THIS WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY END THE GROWING
SEASON FOR MANY.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 50S...BUT
PUSHING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA INTENSIFIES
ENTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH IS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PARALLEL TO THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT...SLOWING THE SYSTEMS OVERALL
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. WITH THAT IN MIND...THINKING WE`LL SEE A
RELATIVELY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING IN THE 50S...AND
A WARM...PLEASANT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

PRECIP FINALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY DRIER AT MID-LEVELS
COMPARED TO THE GFS SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION...BUT WHEN ARE
THEY NOT 7 DAYS OUT. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS A LIGHT
EVENT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON
RADAR WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY POST-RAINFALL. BY MID-DAY TO
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR ONCE AGAIN...SCATTERING
OUT TOWARDS 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN EARLY MORNING
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF






000
FXUS61 KBTV 161125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THIS EVENING. GENERALLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST RADAR SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH PRECIP WINDING DOWN
ACROSS SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
GENERATING THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT EAST OF VERMONT THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND BULK OF
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 15Z...WITH JUST THE
CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THROUGH THE
MIDDAY PERIOD. NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN
THE LOW LEVELS...SO ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING LATE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. AFTER LOW CLOUDS DEPART OR DISSIPATE...LOOK FOR SOME
FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME 30S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY...WE`LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY.
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WITH
PARTIAL SUN WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID
60S IN THE VALLEYS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT...WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
BULK OF MOISTURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH LATE...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EXCEPT
FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING...THURSDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY...WITH DECREASING
CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
PREDOMINATELY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...TRENDING UNSETTLED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDEST AIR-MASS OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR DROPS INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS JUST BELOW 0C AND
AT 925MB JUST A LITTLE ABOVE ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. THIS WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY END THE GROWING
SEASON FOR MANY.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 50S...BUT
PUSHING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA INTENSIFIES
ENTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH IS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PARALLEL TO THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT...SLOWING THE SYSTEMS OVERALL
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. WITH THAT IN MIND...THINKING WE`LL SEE A
RELATIVELY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING IN THE 50S...AND
A WARM...PLEASANT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

PRECIP FINALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY DRIER AT MID-LEVELS
COMPARED TO THE GFS SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION...BUT WHEN ARE
THEY NOT 7 DAYS OUT. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS A LIGHT
EVENT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON
RADAR WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY POST-RAINFALL. BY MID-DAY TO
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR ONCE AGAIN...SCATTERING
OUT TOWARDS 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN EARLY MORNING
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KOKX 161124
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
724 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE VICINITY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY. IT THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IN THE VICINITY ALONG WITH LIFT IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE MID
AND UPPER LIFT EXITS EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH
SOME LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE...ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE 900-800MB
LAYER LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AND WITHOUT A STRONG
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THINKING IS THAT THE AFTERNOON ENDS UP WITH
CLOUDS OUTWEIGHING BLUE SKY FOR MOST SPOTS. A FULL-SUN AFTERNOON
WOULD PRODUCE MID-UPPER 70S FOR THE WARMEST AREAS GIVEN 8-9C 850MB
TEMPS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH NAM MOS...BUT CONSIDERING THE CLOUD
COVER...WENT WITH A NEAR-EVEN BLEND OF NAM AND MAV MOS AS THE MAVS
LOOKED A LITTLE TOO COOL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...CLEARING OUT THE SKY. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL THEN COMBINE
WITH THE CLEAR SKY FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT BELOW NORMAL.

LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN RESULTS IN A SUNNY DAY FOR
WEDNESDAY. SOME CLOUDS THEN PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. 850MB TEMP FALLS ABOUT A
DEGREE FROM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD ENABLE THE
WARMEST SPOTS INLAND TO REACH THE MID 70S...WITH AROUND 70/LOW 70S
FOR THE OTHER AREAS.

AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK DURING WEDS/WEDS NIGHT DUE TO SWELLS FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM EDOUARD...SITUATED WELL OUT TO SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE H5 FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF TROUGHS ALONG
BOTH COASTS OF THE CONUS WITH RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD INTO FRI...BUT THEN NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES
BEGIN TO APPEAR IN THE FLOW LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US THU MORNING WILL LIFT WITH
RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH SAT. A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NE SAT WILL GIVE
WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS SUN AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W.
AS STATED ABOVE...FORECAST DETAILS BECOME FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ON
WITH THE EC THE STRONGEST ALOFT...CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA BY 00Z SUN WHILE THE CMC...GFS AND UKMET MAINTAIN AN
OPEN WAVE ALTHOUGH THESE ALL HAVE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES
AS WELL. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN ITS SLOW MOVEMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN US.

HAVE KEPT THU DRY ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS OR
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER AROUND.
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL
TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRI AND SLIDE OFFSHORE ON SAT. IT IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON THU...THEN FALL
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW ON FRI BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A WARMING TREND
THEN DEVELOPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT SAT AND SUN NIGHTS WHERE THEY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST LATE.

CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. THEN CLEARING WILL
TAKE PLACE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL
TERMINALS FORECASTS FOR DETAILS.

WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC TODAY. LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
VARY AS THE TROUGH NEARS. A BRIEF SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NW IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE WINDS SETTLE BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY TO THE NW.
SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TODAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
LIKELY. WINDS MAY REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
LIKELY. WINDS MAY REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
LIKELY. WINDS MAY REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...HOWEVER SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WILL
BUILD OCEAN SEAS INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. LEANED CLOSED TO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE...KEEPING SEAS BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SWELLS FROM EDOUARD ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WILL BE DECREASING OVER TIME. SUB ADVSY CONDS WILL
PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THU/THU NIGHT...BUT AN INCREASING NE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI/FRI
NIGHT. GUSTS COULD ALSO REACH SCA LEVELS...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU NIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN SHOWERS TODAY. NO RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/24
HYDROLOGY...JC/24







000
FXUS61 KBGM 161030
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
630 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL PASS EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE GONE BY SUNRISE...BUT CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY. COLD DRY AIR COULD CAUSE FROST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED INTO WRN NY ATTM. LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER HALF AN INCH NOW AND WITH THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD STAY THAT
WAY. THE FAR SOUTH AND SE WILL NOT SEE THAT MUCH RAIN. DRY NOW AND
BULK OF RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF THERE THIS MORNING. STEADY RAIN
WILL EXIT THE WRN CATSKILLS BY 8 AM...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
COULD BE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT DAYTIME MORNING IN CENT NY AND
CATSKILLS UNTIL MIDDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT CAA FROM THE NW WILL START. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
COMBINED WITH LAKE MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM
THE MIDWEST. WITH THE CLOUDS MODEL GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT HAS COME IN WARMER. VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A FROST AND THEN
ONLY IN NE ONEIDA AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED THE HIGH WEAKENS BUT IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

WED NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
EVEN LARGER SFC HIGH COMING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN KEEP
TEMPS UP AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IF ANYTHING. SCHC POPS STEUBEN TO ONEIDA COUNTIES IN NY LATE WED
NGT AND THU MORNING.

THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NE US FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING
A COLD CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CAUSE FROST TO
FORM. THE COLDEST TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE FROM DELAWARE
TO ONEIDA COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SHWRS MVG OUT OF THE AREA ATTM. XPCT CONTD IMPRVMT BHD THE FNT AND
SHWRS AS DRIER AIR WRKS INTO THE REGION...WITH ALL SITES VFR BY
ARND 14Z. VFR CONDS CONT THRU THE DAY INTO THE EVE. OVRNGT...LGT
WINDS WELL UP INTO THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH CLR SKIES AND WET GND
SHD LEAD TO XTNSV FOG DVLPG WITH VLIFR AT ELM/BGM/ITH AND IFR AT
AVP THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 161025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
625 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINS FROM THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOST OF SOUTHERN VT. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...SOME SHOWERS ARE FINALLY EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES...SE CATSKILLS...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SOME SHOWERS SHOULD BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS SE
AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING. FURTHER N AND W...THE GENERAL AREAL
COVERAGE OF STEADY RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E BETWEEN 7 AND
9 AM...BUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE MAY
LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY...OR EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN...PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...INTO SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA. ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...AFTER THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS BETWEEN
THROUGH AROUND 9 AM...JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY
PERSIST THROUGH NOONTIME AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES E.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
DIMINISH...CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK UP...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WHERE SOME
DOWNSLOPING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP MORE QUICKLY.
CLOUDS MAY EVENTUALLY BREAK UP IN VALLEY AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

ASSUMING THE CLOUDS LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...HAVE TRENDED MAX
TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER MAV MOS...WITH GENERALLY MID/UPPER 60S
EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...WARMER MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING OCCUR...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY CALL REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES...UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WHICH COULD ACT TO TRAP LAKE MOISTURE IN A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR MANNER TO SUN NT/MON AM. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AT TIMES.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...ASSUMING THAT
AT LEAST SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. IN ADDITION...EVEN
IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
SO...FORECAST MINS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...WARMEST IN VALLEY AREAS. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...NO FROST
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

WED-WED NT...AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF/LIFT...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING 65-70 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WED NT...SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STREAM SE ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA. SOME
SHOWERS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

THU-THU NT...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY. SO...IN GENERAL...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THU...WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. AGAIN...NO POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SEEP SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ESP FOR THU NT. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND MAY PERSIST JUST LONG ENOUGH IN THE
VALLEY AREAS TO LIMIT OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VT...TEMPS COULD DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...EVEN WITH SOME WIND. SO...THESE AREAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...AND
65-70 TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF FA TO REMAIN DRY AS FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS
DELAYING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
12Z WED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WHEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO FOG.

ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ENDING AROUND 14Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH BKN  CIGS
MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH THE MORNING. EVENTUALLY...ALL
SITES LOOK TO SCT OUT BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AND SKC CONDS THIS EVENING. FOG WILL BE DEVELOPING AT KGFL
AFT 05Z AND KPSF AFT 06Z WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS
TO IFR.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS TODAY BECOMING CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL TO 50-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO
90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION EXPECTED. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-55 PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-20 MPH...THEN DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK
INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WED...AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND GENERALLY ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE
LOWEST AMTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THESE RAINFALL AMTS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 161025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
625 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINS FROM THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOST OF SOUTHERN VT. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...SOME SHOWERS ARE FINALLY EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES...SE CATSKILLS...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SOME SHOWERS SHOULD BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS SE
AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING. FURTHER N AND W...THE GENERAL AREAL
COVERAGE OF STEADY RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E BETWEEN 7 AND
9 AM...BUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE MAY
LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY...OR EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN...PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...INTO SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA. ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...AFTER THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS BETWEEN
THROUGH AROUND 9 AM...JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY
PERSIST THROUGH NOONTIME AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES E.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
DIMINISH...CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK UP...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WHERE SOME
DOWNSLOPING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP MORE QUICKLY.
CLOUDS MAY EVENTUALLY BREAK UP IN VALLEY AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

ASSUMING THE CLOUDS LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...HAVE TRENDED MAX
TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER MAV MOS...WITH GENERALLY MID/UPPER 60S
EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...WARMER MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING OCCUR...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY CALL REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES...UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WHICH COULD ACT TO TRAP LAKE MOISTURE IN A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR MANNER TO SUN NT/MON AM. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AT TIMES.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...ASSUMING THAT
AT LEAST SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. IN ADDITION...EVEN
IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
SO...FORECAST MINS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...WARMEST IN VALLEY AREAS. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...NO FROST
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

WED-WED NT...AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF/LIFT...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING 65-70 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WED NT...SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STREAM SE ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA. SOME
SHOWERS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

THU-THU NT...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY. SO...IN GENERAL...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THU...WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. AGAIN...NO POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SEEP SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ESP FOR THU NT. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND MAY PERSIST JUST LONG ENOUGH IN THE
VALLEY AREAS TO LIMIT OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VT...TEMPS COULD DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...EVEN WITH SOME WIND. SO...THESE AREAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...AND
65-70 TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF FA TO REMAIN DRY AS FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS
DELAYING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
12Z WED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WHEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO FOG.

ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ENDING AROUND 14Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH BKN  CIGS
MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH THE MORNING. EVENTUALLY...ALL
SITES LOOK TO SCT OUT BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AND SKC CONDS THIS EVENING. FOG WILL BE DEVELOPING AT KGFL
AFT 05Z AND KPSF AFT 06Z WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS
TO IFR.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS TODAY BECOMING CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL TO 50-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO
90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION EXPECTED. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-55 PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-20 MPH...THEN DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK
INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WED...AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND GENERALLY ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE
LOWEST AMTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THESE RAINFALL AMTS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL







000
FXUS61 KOKX 160947
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
547 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE VICINITY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY. IT THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IN THE VICINITY ALONG WITH LIFT IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE MID
AND UPPER LIFT EXITS EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH
SOME LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE...ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE 900-800MB
LAYER LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AND WITHOUT A STRONG
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THINKING IS THAT THE AFTERNOON ENDS UP WITH
CLOUDS OUTWEIGHING BLUE SKY FOR MOST SPOTS. A FULL-SUN AFTERNOON
WOULD PRODUCE MID-UPPER 70S FOR THE WARMEST AREAS GIVEN 8-9C 850MB
TEMPS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH NAM MOS...BUT CONSIDERING THE CLOUD
COVER...WENT WITH A NEAR-EVEN BLEND OF NAM AND MAV MOS AS THE MAVS
LOOKED A LITTLE TOO COOL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...CLEARING OUT THE SKY. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL THEN COMBINE
WITH THE CLEAR SKY FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT BELOW NORMAL.

LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN RESULTS IN A SUNNY DAY FOR
WEDNESDAY. SOME CLOUDS THEN PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. 850MB TEMP FALLS ABOUT A
DEGREE FROM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD ENABLE THE
WARMEST SPOTS INLAND TO REACH THE MID 70S...WITH AROUND 70/LOW 70S
FOR THE OTHER AREAS.

AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK DURING WEDS/WEDS NIGHT DUE TO SWELLS FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM EDOUARD...SITUATED WELL OUT TO SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE H5 FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF TROUGHS ALONG
BOTH COASTS OF THE CONUS WITH RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD INTO FRI...BUT THEN NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES
BEGIN TO APPEAR IN THE FLOW LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US THU MORNING WILL LIFT WITH
RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH SAT. A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NE SAT WILL GIVE
WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS SUN AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W.
AS STATED ABOVE...FORECAST DETAILS BECOME FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ON
WITH THE EC THE STRONGEST ALOFT...CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA BY 00Z SUN WHILE THE CMC...GFS AND UKMET MAINTAIN AN
OPEN WAVE ALTHOUGH THESE ALL HAVE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES
AS WELL. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN ITS SLOW MOVEMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN US.

HAVE KEPT THU DRY ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS OR
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER AROUND.
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL
TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRI AND SLIDE OFFSHORE ON SAT. IT IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON THU...THEN FALL
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW ON FRI BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A WARMING TREND
THEN DEVELOPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT SAT AND SUN NIGHTS WHERE THEY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND ANY RAIN WILL BE LIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10-13Z...THROUGH ABOUT 15-17Z OR SO. THEN
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS FORECASTS
FOR DETAILS.

WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC TODAY. LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
VARY AS THE TROUGH NEARS. A BRIEF SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NW IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE WINDS SETTLE BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY TO THE NW.
SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TODAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
LIKELY. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
LIKELY. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
LIKELY. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW OR N BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE W/NW BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...HOWEVER SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WILL
BUILD OCEAN SEAS INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. LEANED CLOSED TO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE...KEEPING SEAS BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SWELLS FROM EDOUARD ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WILL BE DECREASING OVER TIME. SUB ADVSY CONDS WILL
PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THU/THU NIGHT...BUT AN INCREASING NE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI/FRI
NIGHT. GUSTS COULD ALSO REACH SCA LEVELS...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU NIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN SHOWERS TODAY. NO RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/24
HYDROLOGY...JC/24






000
FXUS61 KOKX 160947
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
547 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE VICINITY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY. IT THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IN THE VICINITY ALONG WITH LIFT IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE MID
AND UPPER LIFT EXITS EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH
SOME LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE...ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE 900-800MB
LAYER LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AND WITHOUT A STRONG
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THINKING IS THAT THE AFTERNOON ENDS UP WITH
CLOUDS OUTWEIGHING BLUE SKY FOR MOST SPOTS. A FULL-SUN AFTERNOON
WOULD PRODUCE MID-UPPER 70S FOR THE WARMEST AREAS GIVEN 8-9C 850MB
TEMPS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH NAM MOS...BUT CONSIDERING THE CLOUD
COVER...WENT WITH A NEAR-EVEN BLEND OF NAM AND MAV MOS AS THE MAVS
LOOKED A LITTLE TOO COOL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...CLEARING OUT THE SKY. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL THEN COMBINE
WITH THE CLEAR SKY FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT BELOW NORMAL.

LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN RESULTS IN A SUNNY DAY FOR
WEDNESDAY. SOME CLOUDS THEN PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. 850MB TEMP FALLS ABOUT A
DEGREE FROM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD ENABLE THE
WARMEST SPOTS INLAND TO REACH THE MID 70S...WITH AROUND 70/LOW 70S
FOR THE OTHER AREAS.

AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK DURING WEDS/WEDS NIGHT DUE TO SWELLS FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM EDOUARD...SITUATED WELL OUT TO SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE H5 FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF TROUGHS ALONG
BOTH COASTS OF THE CONUS WITH RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD INTO FRI...BUT THEN NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES
BEGIN TO APPEAR IN THE FLOW LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US THU MORNING WILL LIFT WITH
RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH SAT. A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NE SAT WILL GIVE
WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS SUN AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W.
AS STATED ABOVE...FORECAST DETAILS BECOME FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ON
WITH THE EC THE STRONGEST ALOFT...CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA BY 00Z SUN WHILE THE CMC...GFS AND UKMET MAINTAIN AN
OPEN WAVE ALTHOUGH THESE ALL HAVE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES
AS WELL. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN ITS SLOW MOVEMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN US.

HAVE KEPT THU DRY ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS OR
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER AROUND.
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL
TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRI AND SLIDE OFFSHORE ON SAT. IT IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON THU...THEN FALL
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW ON FRI BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A WARMING TREND
THEN DEVELOPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT SAT AND SUN NIGHTS WHERE THEY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND ANY RAIN WILL BE LIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10-13Z...THROUGH ABOUT 15-17Z OR SO. THEN
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS FORECASTS
FOR DETAILS.

WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC TODAY. LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
VARY AS THE TROUGH NEARS. A BRIEF SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NW IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE WINDS SETTLE BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY TO THE NW.
SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TODAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
LIKELY. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
LIKELY. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
LIKELY. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW OR N BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE W/NW BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...HOWEVER SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WILL
BUILD OCEAN SEAS INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. LEANED CLOSED TO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE...KEEPING SEAS BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SWELLS FROM EDOUARD ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WILL BE DECREASING OVER TIME. SUB ADVSY CONDS WILL
PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THU/THU NIGHT...BUT AN INCREASING NE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI/FRI
NIGHT. GUSTS COULD ALSO REACH SCA LEVELS...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU NIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN SHOWERS TODAY. NO RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/24
HYDROLOGY...JC/24






000
FXUS61 KOKX 160947
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
547 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE VICINITY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY. IT THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IN THE VICINITY ALONG WITH LIFT IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE MID
AND UPPER LIFT EXITS EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH
SOME LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE...ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE 900-800MB
LAYER LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AND WITHOUT A STRONG
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THINKING IS THAT THE AFTERNOON ENDS UP WITH
CLOUDS OUTWEIGHING BLUE SKY FOR MOST SPOTS. A FULL-SUN AFTERNOON
WOULD PRODUCE MID-UPPER 70S FOR THE WARMEST AREAS GIVEN 8-9C 850MB
TEMPS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH NAM MOS...BUT CONSIDERING THE CLOUD
COVER...WENT WITH A NEAR-EVEN BLEND OF NAM AND MAV MOS AS THE MAVS
LOOKED A LITTLE TOO COOL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...CLEARING OUT THE SKY. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL THEN COMBINE
WITH THE CLEAR SKY FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT BELOW NORMAL.

LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN RESULTS IN A SUNNY DAY FOR
WEDNESDAY. SOME CLOUDS THEN PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. 850MB TEMP FALLS ABOUT A
DEGREE FROM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD ENABLE THE
WARMEST SPOTS INLAND TO REACH THE MID 70S...WITH AROUND 70/LOW 70S
FOR THE OTHER AREAS.

AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK DURING WEDS/WEDS NIGHT DUE TO SWELLS FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM EDOUARD...SITUATED WELL OUT TO SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE H5 FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF TROUGHS ALONG
BOTH COASTS OF THE CONUS WITH RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD INTO FRI...BUT THEN NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES
BEGIN TO APPEAR IN THE FLOW LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US THU MORNING WILL LIFT WITH
RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH SAT. A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NE SAT WILL GIVE
WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS SUN AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W.
AS STATED ABOVE...FORECAST DETAILS BECOME FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ON
WITH THE EC THE STRONGEST ALOFT...CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA BY 00Z SUN WHILE THE CMC...GFS AND UKMET MAINTAIN AN
OPEN WAVE ALTHOUGH THESE ALL HAVE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES
AS WELL. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN ITS SLOW MOVEMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN US.

HAVE KEPT THU DRY ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS OR
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER AROUND.
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL
TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRI AND SLIDE OFFSHORE ON SAT. IT IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON THU...THEN FALL
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW ON FRI BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A WARMING TREND
THEN DEVELOPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT SAT AND SUN NIGHTS WHERE THEY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND ANY RAIN WILL BE LIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10-13Z...THROUGH ABOUT 15-17Z OR SO. THEN
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS FORECASTS
FOR DETAILS.

WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC TODAY. LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
VARY AS THE TROUGH NEARS. A BRIEF SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NW IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE WINDS SETTLE BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY TO THE NW.
SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TODAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
LIKELY. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
LIKELY. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
LIKELY. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW OR N BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE W/NW BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...HOWEVER SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WILL
BUILD OCEAN SEAS INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. LEANED CLOSED TO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE...KEEPING SEAS BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SWELLS FROM EDOUARD ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WILL BE DECREASING OVER TIME. SUB ADVSY CONDS WILL
PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THU/THU NIGHT...BUT AN INCREASING NE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI/FRI
NIGHT. GUSTS COULD ALSO REACH SCA LEVELS...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU NIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN SHOWERS TODAY. NO RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/24
HYDROLOGY...JC/24






000
FXUS61 KOKX 160947
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
547 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE VICINITY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY. IT THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IN THE VICINITY ALONG WITH LIFT IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE MID
AND UPPER LIFT EXITS EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH
SOME LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE...ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE 900-800MB
LAYER LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AND WITHOUT A STRONG
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THINKING IS THAT THE AFTERNOON ENDS UP WITH
CLOUDS OUTWEIGHING BLUE SKY FOR MOST SPOTS. A FULL-SUN AFTERNOON
WOULD PRODUCE MID-UPPER 70S FOR THE WARMEST AREAS GIVEN 8-9C 850MB
TEMPS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH NAM MOS...BUT CONSIDERING THE CLOUD
COVER...WENT WITH A NEAR-EVEN BLEND OF NAM AND MAV MOS AS THE MAVS
LOOKED A LITTLE TOO COOL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...CLEARING OUT THE SKY. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL THEN COMBINE
WITH THE CLEAR SKY FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT BELOW NORMAL.

LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN RESULTS IN A SUNNY DAY FOR
WEDNESDAY. SOME CLOUDS THEN PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. 850MB TEMP FALLS ABOUT A
DEGREE FROM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD ENABLE THE
WARMEST SPOTS INLAND TO REACH THE MID 70S...WITH AROUND 70/LOW 70S
FOR THE OTHER AREAS.

AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK DURING WEDS/WEDS NIGHT DUE TO SWELLS FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM EDOUARD...SITUATED WELL OUT TO SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE H5 FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF TROUGHS ALONG
BOTH COASTS OF THE CONUS WITH RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD INTO FRI...BUT THEN NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES
BEGIN TO APPEAR IN THE FLOW LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US THU MORNING WILL LIFT WITH
RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH SAT. A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NE SAT WILL GIVE
WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS SUN AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W.
AS STATED ABOVE...FORECAST DETAILS BECOME FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ON
WITH THE EC THE STRONGEST ALOFT...CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA BY 00Z SUN WHILE THE CMC...GFS AND UKMET MAINTAIN AN
OPEN WAVE ALTHOUGH THESE ALL HAVE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES
AS WELL. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN ITS SLOW MOVEMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN US.

HAVE KEPT THU DRY ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS OR
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER AROUND.
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL
TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRI AND SLIDE OFFSHORE ON SAT. IT IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON THU...THEN FALL
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW ON FRI BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A WARMING TREND
THEN DEVELOPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT SAT AND SUN NIGHTS WHERE THEY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND ANY RAIN WILL BE LIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10-13Z...THROUGH ABOUT 15-17Z OR SO. THEN
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS FORECASTS
FOR DETAILS.

WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC TODAY. LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
VARY AS THE TROUGH NEARS. A BRIEF SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NW IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE WINDS SETTLE BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY TO THE NW.
SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TODAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
LIKELY. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
LIKELY. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
LIKELY. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW OR N BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE W/NW BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...HOWEVER SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WILL
BUILD OCEAN SEAS INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. LEANED CLOSED TO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE...KEEPING SEAS BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SWELLS FROM EDOUARD ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WILL BE DECREASING OVER TIME. SUB ADVSY CONDS WILL
PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THU/THU NIGHT...BUT AN INCREASING NE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI/FRI
NIGHT. GUSTS COULD ALSO REACH SCA LEVELS...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU NIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN SHOWERS TODAY. NO RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/24
HYDROLOGY...JC/24






000
FXUS61 KBUF 160934
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
534 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING IN
THE AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY THEN A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS A COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA RADARS SHOW THE STEADIER RAIN SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT HAVE NOW
SHIFTED INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING AS THE DRIVING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY EXITS TO OUR EAST. SOME ISOLATED
/LIKELY LAKE ENHANCED/ SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP OVER LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO AT 09Z. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND +4C OVER THE WARM
LAKE WATERS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY FOR THESE
SHOWERS IN AN OTHERWISE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AFTER SUNRISE EXPECT DIURNAL MIXING TO DISRUPT THE
WEAK FLOW DRIVING THE SHOWERS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRIER AIR HELPING
TO CLEAR OUT SKIES BY MID AFTERNOON. THE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE THE LONGEST. COOL AIR
ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE BELOW AVERAGE TODAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST STATES WILL RIDGE EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THIS TO TRAP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO HAVE KEPT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
INLAND FROM THE LAKES. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES NEAR THE LAKE
SHORES. SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE
WARMER SIDE WITH LOWS ONLY SLIDING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EXTENDING FROM A POLAR LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WHILE
STRONG RIDGING WILL BE FOUND OVER THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...HOWEVER A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL SHUNT A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS OUR
REGION WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. WHILE THE BULK OF THE DPVA
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO.

850MB TEMPS OF +4 TO +6C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...IN THE LOWER 60S. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENCROACHING CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ONLY PRODUCE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY. UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO BEHIND THE
FRONT COUPLED WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND +2C WILL GENERATE
PLENTY OF STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK...THOUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS IT WILL ESCAPE THE INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE. THE
COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
FOR A CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE MID 50S.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AROUND
TO THE EAST...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THIS CLEARING COUPLED WITH THE VERY DRY AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION COULD RESULT IN THE FIRST WIDESPREAD
FREEZE OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHILE FROST MAY BE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF AREAS NEAR THE LAKE ERIE
AND ONTARIO SHORELINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ARCTIC HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN OF EARLIER IN THE WEEK
BRIEFLY GIVES WAY TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST ON
FRIDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY BEFORE BOOSTING
READINGS INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE BOTH
DAYS THANKS TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A MUCH MORE COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE ESSENTIALLY THREE
TIERS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL BE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST IS OVER HUDSON BAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX. THE SECOND IS A SHORTWAVE
TRACKING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. THE THIRD AND
FINAL FACTOR IS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE THAT WILL BE
MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. TO VARYING
DEGREES THE GLOBAL MODELS PHASE ALL THREE OF THESE SYSTEMS AND BRING
THEM ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE X-FACTOR BEING THE SPEED
AND INTENSITY OF YET ANOTHER PLAYER...A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING
OUT OF THE MACKENZIE BASIN OF FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE MAY END UP DIGGING FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO GENERATE A LARGE SURFACE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF...OR ARRIVE TOO LATE
TO DO SO AND INSTEAD REINVIGORATE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SURFACE
LOW AS IT LIFTS INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. THE GLOBAL GEM IS EVEN
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH THIS FEATURE...HAVING IT MISS OUR
GREAT LAKES LOW ENTIRELY.

IN SPITE OF THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS BETWEEN THESE
SCENARIOS...THE TIMING OF IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IS SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR. AFTER ONE MORE WARM AND
DRY DAY SUNDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
APPROACH THE AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS AT WORK ALONG WITH A
DECENT RETURN FLOW OFF OF MOISTURE OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTIONS FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT FROM ODILE...WE COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS
COOL-DOWN WILL BE A FUNCTION OF THE FINAL TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWEST CANADIAN SHORTWAVE AND THE DEGREE TO WHICH IT ENHANCES THE
LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND SUBSEQUENT POSSIBLE OCCLUSION ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STEADIER RAIN HAS PASSED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
SOME ISOLATED LAKE ENHANCE SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR ALONG
LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO. LINGERING CLOUD COVER RANGES FROM VFR TO MVFR
THIS MORNING BUT WILL BREAK UP AND LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
SITES. TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE EAST FROM THE MIDWEST
STATES. THIS WILL TRAP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME VFR LEVEL CLOUDS
INLAND FROM THE LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG WITH LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT
VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LAKE ONTARIO NEAR SHORE WATERS
HAS ALLOWED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE BETWEEN SODUS BAY AND
MEXICO BAY OTHERWISE WINDS AND WAVES IN OTHER ZONES WILL REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 160934
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
534 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING IN
THE AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY THEN A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS A COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA RADARS SHOW THE STEADIER RAIN SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT HAVE NOW
SHIFTED INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING AS THE DRIVING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY EXITS TO OUR EAST. SOME ISOLATED
/LIKELY LAKE ENHANCED/ SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP OVER LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO AT 09Z. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND +4C OVER THE WARM
LAKE WATERS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY FOR THESE
SHOWERS IN AN OTHERWISE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AFTER SUNRISE EXPECT DIURNAL MIXING TO DISRUPT THE
WEAK FLOW DRIVING THE SHOWERS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRIER AIR HELPING
TO CLEAR OUT SKIES BY MID AFTERNOON. THE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE THE LONGEST. COOL AIR
ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE BELOW AVERAGE TODAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST STATES WILL RIDGE EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THIS TO TRAP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO HAVE KEPT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
INLAND FROM THE LAKES. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES NEAR THE LAKE
SHORES. SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE
WARMER SIDE WITH LOWS ONLY SLIDING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EXTENDING FROM A POLAR LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WHILE
STRONG RIDGING WILL BE FOUND OVER THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...HOWEVER A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL SHUNT A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS OUR
REGION WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. WHILE THE BULK OF THE DPVA
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO.

850MB TEMPS OF +4 TO +6C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...IN THE LOWER 60S. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENCROACHING CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ONLY PRODUCE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY. UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO BEHIND THE
FRONT COUPLED WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND +2C WILL GENERATE
PLENTY OF STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK...THOUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS IT WILL ESCAPE THE INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE. THE
COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
FOR A CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE MID 50S.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AROUND
TO THE EAST...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THIS CLEARING COUPLED WITH THE VERY DRY AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION COULD RESULT IN THE FIRST WIDESPREAD
FREEZE OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHILE FROST MAY BE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF AREAS NEAR THE LAKE ERIE
AND ONTARIO SHORELINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ARCTIC HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN OF EARLIER IN THE WEEK
BRIEFLY GIVES WAY TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST ON
FRIDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY BEFORE BOOSTING
READINGS INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE BOTH
DAYS THANKS TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A MUCH MORE COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE ESSENTIALLY THREE
TIERS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL BE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST IS OVER HUDSON BAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX. THE SECOND IS A SHORTWAVE
TRACKING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. THE THIRD AND
FINAL FACTOR IS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE THAT WILL BE
MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. TO VARYING
DEGREES THE GLOBAL MODELS PHASE ALL THREE OF THESE SYSTEMS AND BRING
THEM ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE X-FACTOR BEING THE SPEED
AND INTENSITY OF YET ANOTHER PLAYER...A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING
OUT OF THE MACKENZIE BASIN OF FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE MAY END UP DIGGING FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO GENERATE A LARGE SURFACE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF...OR ARRIVE TOO LATE
TO DO SO AND INSTEAD REINVIGORATE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SURFACE
LOW AS IT LIFTS INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. THE GLOBAL GEM IS EVEN
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH THIS FEATURE...HAVING IT MISS OUR
GREAT LAKES LOW ENTIRELY.

IN SPITE OF THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS BETWEEN THESE
SCENARIOS...THE TIMING OF IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IS SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR. AFTER ONE MORE WARM AND
DRY DAY SUNDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
APPROACH THE AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS AT WORK ALONG WITH A
DECENT RETURN FLOW OFF OF MOISTURE OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTIONS FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT FROM ODILE...WE COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS
COOL-DOWN WILL BE A FUNCTION OF THE FINAL TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWEST CANADIAN SHORTWAVE AND THE DEGREE TO WHICH IT ENHANCES THE
LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND SUBSEQUENT POSSIBLE OCCLUSION ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STEADIER RAIN HAS PASSED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
SOME ISOLATED LAKE ENHANCE SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR ALONG
LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO. LINGERING CLOUD COVER RANGES FROM VFR TO MVFR
THIS MORNING BUT WILL BREAK UP AND LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
SITES. TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE EAST FROM THE MIDWEST
STATES. THIS WILL TRAP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME VFR LEVEL CLOUDS
INLAND FROM THE LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG WITH LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT
VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LAKE ONTARIO NEAR SHORE WATERS
HAS ALLOWED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE BETWEEN SODUS BAY AND
MEXICO BAY OTHERWISE WINDS AND WAVES IN OTHER ZONES WILL REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 160934
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
534 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING IN
THE AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY THEN A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS A COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA RADARS SHOW THE STEADIER RAIN SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT HAVE NOW
SHIFTED INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING AS THE DRIVING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY EXITS TO OUR EAST. SOME ISOLATED
/LIKELY LAKE ENHANCED/ SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP OVER LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO AT 09Z. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND +4C OVER THE WARM
LAKE WATERS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY FOR THESE
SHOWERS IN AN OTHERWISE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AFTER SUNRISE EXPECT DIURNAL MIXING TO DISRUPT THE
WEAK FLOW DRIVING THE SHOWERS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRIER AIR HELPING
TO CLEAR OUT SKIES BY MID AFTERNOON. THE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE THE LONGEST. COOL AIR
ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE BELOW AVERAGE TODAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST STATES WILL RIDGE EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THIS TO TRAP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO HAVE KEPT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
INLAND FROM THE LAKES. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES NEAR THE LAKE
SHORES. SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE
WARMER SIDE WITH LOWS ONLY SLIDING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EXTENDING FROM A POLAR LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WHILE
STRONG RIDGING WILL BE FOUND OVER THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...HOWEVER A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL SHUNT A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS OUR
REGION WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. WHILE THE BULK OF THE DPVA
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO.

850MB TEMPS OF +4 TO +6C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...IN THE LOWER 60S. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENCROACHING CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ONLY PRODUCE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY. UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO BEHIND THE
FRONT COUPLED WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND +2C WILL GENERATE
PLENTY OF STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK...THOUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS IT WILL ESCAPE THE INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE. THE
COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
FOR A CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE MID 50S.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AROUND
TO THE EAST...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THIS CLEARING COUPLED WITH THE VERY DRY AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION COULD RESULT IN THE FIRST WIDESPREAD
FREEZE OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHILE FROST MAY BE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF AREAS NEAR THE LAKE ERIE
AND ONTARIO SHORELINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ARCTIC HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN OF EARLIER IN THE WEEK
BRIEFLY GIVES WAY TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST ON
FRIDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY BEFORE BOOSTING
READINGS INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE BOTH
DAYS THANKS TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A MUCH MORE COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE ESSENTIALLY THREE
TIERS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL BE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST IS OVER HUDSON BAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX. THE SECOND IS A SHORTWAVE
TRACKING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. THE THIRD AND
FINAL FACTOR IS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE THAT WILL BE
MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. TO VARYING
DEGREES THE GLOBAL MODELS PHASE ALL THREE OF THESE SYSTEMS AND BRING
THEM ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE X-FACTOR BEING THE SPEED
AND INTENSITY OF YET ANOTHER PLAYER...A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING
OUT OF THE MACKENZIE BASIN OF FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE MAY END UP DIGGING FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO GENERATE A LARGE SURFACE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF...OR ARRIVE TOO LATE
TO DO SO AND INSTEAD REINVIGORATE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SURFACE
LOW AS IT LIFTS INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. THE GLOBAL GEM IS EVEN
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH THIS FEATURE...HAVING IT MISS OUR
GREAT LAKES LOW ENTIRELY.

IN SPITE OF THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS BETWEEN THESE
SCENARIOS...THE TIMING OF IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IS SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR. AFTER ONE MORE WARM AND
DRY DAY SUNDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
APPROACH THE AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS AT WORK ALONG WITH A
DECENT RETURN FLOW OFF OF MOISTURE OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTIONS FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT FROM ODILE...WE COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS
COOL-DOWN WILL BE A FUNCTION OF THE FINAL TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWEST CANADIAN SHORTWAVE AND THE DEGREE TO WHICH IT ENHANCES THE
LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND SUBSEQUENT POSSIBLE OCCLUSION ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STEADIER RAIN HAS PASSED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
SOME ISOLATED LAKE ENHANCE SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR ALONG
LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO. LINGERING CLOUD COVER RANGES FROM VFR TO MVFR
THIS MORNING BUT WILL BREAK UP AND LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
SITES. TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE EAST FROM THE MIDWEST
STATES. THIS WILL TRAP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME VFR LEVEL CLOUDS
INLAND FROM THE LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG WITH LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT
VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LAKE ONTARIO NEAR SHORE WATERS
HAS ALLOWED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE BETWEEN SODUS BAY AND
MEXICO BAY OTHERWISE WINDS AND WAVES IN OTHER ZONES WILL REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 160934
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
534 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING IN
THE AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY THEN A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS A COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA RADARS SHOW THE STEADIER RAIN SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT HAVE NOW
SHIFTED INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING AS THE DRIVING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY EXITS TO OUR EAST. SOME ISOLATED
/LIKELY LAKE ENHANCED/ SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP OVER LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO AT 09Z. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND +4C OVER THE WARM
LAKE WATERS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY FOR THESE
SHOWERS IN AN OTHERWISE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AFTER SUNRISE EXPECT DIURNAL MIXING TO DISRUPT THE
WEAK FLOW DRIVING THE SHOWERS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRIER AIR HELPING
TO CLEAR OUT SKIES BY MID AFTERNOON. THE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE THE LONGEST. COOL AIR
ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE BELOW AVERAGE TODAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST STATES WILL RIDGE EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THIS TO TRAP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO HAVE KEPT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
INLAND FROM THE LAKES. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES NEAR THE LAKE
SHORES. SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE
WARMER SIDE WITH LOWS ONLY SLIDING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EXTENDING FROM A POLAR LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WHILE
STRONG RIDGING WILL BE FOUND OVER THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...HOWEVER A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL SHUNT A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS OUR
REGION WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. WHILE THE BULK OF THE DPVA
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO.

850MB TEMPS OF +4 TO +6C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...IN THE LOWER 60S. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENCROACHING CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ONLY PRODUCE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY. UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO BEHIND THE
FRONT COUPLED WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND +2C WILL GENERATE
PLENTY OF STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK...THOUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS IT WILL ESCAPE THE INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE. THE
COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
FOR A CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE MID 50S.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AROUND
TO THE EAST...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THIS CLEARING COUPLED WITH THE VERY DRY AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION COULD RESULT IN THE FIRST WIDESPREAD
FREEZE OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHILE FROST MAY BE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF AREAS NEAR THE LAKE ERIE
AND ONTARIO SHORELINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ARCTIC HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN OF EARLIER IN THE WEEK
BRIEFLY GIVES WAY TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST ON
FRIDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY BEFORE BOOSTING
READINGS INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE BOTH
DAYS THANKS TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A MUCH MORE COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE ESSENTIALLY THREE
TIERS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL BE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST IS OVER HUDSON BAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX. THE SECOND IS A SHORTWAVE
TRACKING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. THE THIRD AND
FINAL FACTOR IS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE THAT WILL BE
MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. TO VARYING
DEGREES THE GLOBAL MODELS PHASE ALL THREE OF THESE SYSTEMS AND BRING
THEM ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE X-FACTOR BEING THE SPEED
AND INTENSITY OF YET ANOTHER PLAYER...A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING
OUT OF THE MACKENZIE BASIN OF FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE MAY END UP DIGGING FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO GENERATE A LARGE SURFACE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF...OR ARRIVE TOO LATE
TO DO SO AND INSTEAD REINVIGORATE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SURFACE
LOW AS IT LIFTS INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. THE GLOBAL GEM IS EVEN
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH THIS FEATURE...HAVING IT MISS OUR
GREAT LAKES LOW ENTIRELY.

IN SPITE OF THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS BETWEEN THESE
SCENARIOS...THE TIMING OF IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IS SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR. AFTER ONE MORE WARM AND
DRY DAY SUNDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
APPROACH THE AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS AT WORK ALONG WITH A
DECENT RETURN FLOW OFF OF MOISTURE OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTIONS FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT FROM ODILE...WE COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS
COOL-DOWN WILL BE A FUNCTION OF THE FINAL TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWEST CANADIAN SHORTWAVE AND THE DEGREE TO WHICH IT ENHANCES THE
LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND SUBSEQUENT POSSIBLE OCCLUSION ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STEADIER RAIN HAS PASSED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
SOME ISOLATED LAKE ENHANCE SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR ALONG
LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO. LINGERING CLOUD COVER RANGES FROM VFR TO MVFR
THIS MORNING BUT WILL BREAK UP AND LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
SITES. TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE EAST FROM THE MIDWEST
STATES. THIS WILL TRAP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME VFR LEVEL CLOUDS
INLAND FROM THE LAKES OVERNIGHT. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG WITH LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT
VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LAKE ONTARIO NEAR SHORE WATERS
HAS ALLOWED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE BETWEEN SODUS BAY AND
MEXICO BAY OTHERWISE WINDS AND WAVES IN OTHER ZONES WILL REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH







000
FXUS61 KALY 160851
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
451 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT...THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINS FROM THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BENNINGTON/WINDHAM
COS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...ONLY SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN HAS
FALLEN THIS FAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FROM THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...NORTH INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS.

THROUGH SUNRISE...WE EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO PERSIST
ACROSS AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...EVENTUALLY
EXPANDING SLIGHTLY FURTHER S AND E INTO MUCH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL BERKSHIRES BY
SUNRISE. FURTHER S AND E...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME...WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AS SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PA SLIDE E.

AFTER SUNRISE...SOME SHOWERS SHOULD BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS SE AREAS
THROUGH MID MORNING. FURTHER N AND W...THE GENERAL AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS OR STEADY RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH...BUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY...OR EVEN EARLY
AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...INTO SOUTHERN VT AND
WESTERN MA. ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...AFTER THE BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 6 AND 10 AM...JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH NOONTIME AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH
SLOWLY MOVES E.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
DIMINISH...CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK UP...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WHERE SOME
DOWNSLOPING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP MORE QUICKLY.
CLOUDS MAY EVENTUALLY BREAK UP IN VALLEY AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

ASSUMING THE CLOUDS LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...HAVE TRENDED MAX
TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER MAV MOS...WITH GENERALLY MID/UPPER 60S
EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...WARMER MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING OCCUR...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY CALL REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES...UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WHICH COULD ACT TO TRAP LAKE MOISTURE IN A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR MANNER TO SUN NT/MON AM. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AT TIMES.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...ASSUMING THAT
AT LEAST SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. IN ADDITION...EVEN
IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
SO...FORECAST MINS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...WARMEST IN VALLEY AREAS. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...NO FROST
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

WED-WED NT...AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF/LIFT...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING 65-70 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WED NT...SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STREAM SE ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA. SOME
SHOWERS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

THU-THU NT...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY. SO...IN GENERAL...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THU...WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. AGAIN...NO POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SEEP SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ESP FOR THU NT. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND MAY PERSIST JUST LONG ENOUGH IN THE
VALLEY AREAS TO LIMIT OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VT...TEMPS COULD DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...EVEN WITH SOME WIND. SO...THESE AREAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...AND
65-70 TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF FA TO REMAIN DRY AS FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS
DELAYING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
06Z WED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF DURING THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN OCNL MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY. KALB IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME SHOWERS BUT MAINTAIN VFR
CONDS WHILE KPOU WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY. THE SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ENDING AROUND 12Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH BKN MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE MORNING...ESP AT
KPSF...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND.
EVENTUALLY...ALL SITES LOOK TO SCT OUT BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AND SKC CONDS THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL BE DEVELOPING AT KGFL AFT 05Z WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CIGS
AND VSBYS TO IFR.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS BECOMING CALM TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL TO 50-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO
90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION EXPECTED. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-55 PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-20 MPH...THEN DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK
INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WED...AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND GENERALLY ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE
LOWEST AMTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THESE RAINFALL AMTS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/IAA
HYDROLOGY...KL/IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 160851
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
451 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT...THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINS FROM THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BENNINGTON/WINDHAM
COS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...ONLY SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN HAS
FALLEN THIS FAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FROM THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...NORTH INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS.

THROUGH SUNRISE...WE EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO PERSIST
ACROSS AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...EVENTUALLY
EXPANDING SLIGHTLY FURTHER S AND E INTO MUCH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL BERKSHIRES BY
SUNRISE. FURTHER S AND E...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME...WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AS SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PA SLIDE E.

AFTER SUNRISE...SOME SHOWERS SHOULD BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS SE AREAS
THROUGH MID MORNING. FURTHER N AND W...THE GENERAL AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS OR STEADY RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH...BUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY...OR EVEN EARLY
AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...INTO SOUTHERN VT AND
WESTERN MA. ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...AFTER THE BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 6 AND 10 AM...JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH NOONTIME AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH
SLOWLY MOVES E.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
DIMINISH...CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK UP...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WHERE SOME
DOWNSLOPING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP MORE QUICKLY.
CLOUDS MAY EVENTUALLY BREAK UP IN VALLEY AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

ASSUMING THE CLOUDS LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...HAVE TRENDED MAX
TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER MAV MOS...WITH GENERALLY MID/UPPER 60S
EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...WARMER MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING OCCUR...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY CALL REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES...UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WHICH COULD ACT TO TRAP LAKE MOISTURE IN A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR MANNER TO SUN NT/MON AM. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AT TIMES.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...ASSUMING THAT
AT LEAST SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS PASS THROUGH. IN ADDITION...EVEN
IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
SO...FORECAST MINS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...WARMEST IN VALLEY AREAS. BASED ON THESE TEMPS...NO FROST
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

WED-WED NT...AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF/LIFT...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH TEMPS REACHING 65-70 IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR WED NT...SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STREAM SE ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA. SOME
SHOWERS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

THU-THU NT...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
BRIEFLY. SO...IN GENERAL...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THU...WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. AGAIN...NO POPS HAVE BEEN INDICATED...ALTHOUGH CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SEEP SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ESP FOR THU NT. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WIND MAY PERSIST JUST LONG ENOUGH IN THE
VALLEY AREAS TO LIMIT OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VT...TEMPS COULD DIP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...EVEN WITH SOME WIND. SO...THESE AREAS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST...AND
65-70 TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS FOR THU NT/FRI AM ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF FA TO REMAIN DRY AS FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS
DELAYING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS ACRS THE NRN PTN OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
06Z WED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF DURING THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN OCNL MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY. KALB IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME SHOWERS BUT MAINTAIN VFR
CONDS WHILE KPOU WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY. THE SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ENDING AROUND 12Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH BKN MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE MORNING...ESP AT
KPSF...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND.
EVENTUALLY...ALL SITES LOOK TO SCT OUT BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AND SKC CONDS THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL BE DEVELOPING AT KGFL AFT 05Z WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CIGS
AND VSBYS TO IFR.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS BECOMING CALM TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE EAST. GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY.

THE RH WILL FALL TO 50-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO
90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION EXPECTED. THE RH WILL
FALL TO 40-55 PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AT 10-20 MPH...THEN DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK
INTO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WED...AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND GENERALLY ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE
LOWEST AMTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THESE RAINFALL AMTS WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/IAA
HYDROLOGY...KL/IAA







000
FXUS61 KBTV 160849
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
449 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THIS EVENING. GENERALLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST RADAR SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
GENERATING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT EAST OF VERMONT THIS
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF THIS
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
EAST OF THE REGION BY 15Z...WITH JUST THE CHANCE OF A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THROUGH THE MIDDAY PERIOD.
NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE LOW
LEVELS...SO ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING LATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. AFTER LOW CLOUDS DEPART OR DISSIPATE...LOOK FOR SOME
FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME 30S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY...WE`LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY.
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WITH
PARTIAL SUN WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID
60S IN THE VALLEYS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT...WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
BULK OF MOISTURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH LATE...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EXCEPT
FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING...THURSDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY...WITH DECREASING
CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
PREDOMINATELY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...TRENDING UNSETTLED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDEST AIR-MASS OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR DROPS INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS JUST BELOW 0C AND
AT 925MB JUST A LITTLE ABOVE ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. THIS WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY END THE GROWING
SEASON FOR MANY.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 50S...BUT
PUSHING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA INTENSIFIES
ENTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH IS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PARALLEL TO THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT...SLOWING THE SYSTEMS OVERALL
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. WITH THAT IN MIND...THINKING WE`LL SEE A
RELATIVELY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING IN THE 50S...AND
A WARM...PLEASANT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

PRECIP FINALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY DRIER AT MID-LEVELS
COMPARED TO THE GFS SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION...BUT WHEN ARE
THEY NOT 7 DAYS OUT. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS A LIGHT
EVENT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON
RADAR WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY POST-RAINFALL. BY MID-DAY TO
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR ONCE AGAIN...SCATTERING
OUT TOWARDS 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN EARLY MORNING
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 160849
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
449 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THIS EVENING. GENERALLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST RADAR SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
GENERATING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT EAST OF VERMONT THIS
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF THIS
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
EAST OF THE REGION BY 15Z...WITH JUST THE CHANCE OF A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THROUGH THE MIDDAY PERIOD.
NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE LOW
LEVELS...SO ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING LATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. AFTER LOW CLOUDS DEPART OR DISSIPATE...LOOK FOR SOME
FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME 30S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY...WE`LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY.
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WITH
PARTIAL SUN WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID
60S IN THE VALLEYS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT...WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
BULK OF MOISTURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH LATE...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EXCEPT
FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING...THURSDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY...WITH DECREASING
CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
PREDOMINATELY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...TRENDING UNSETTLED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDEST AIR-MASS OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR DROPS INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS JUST BELOW 0C AND
AT 925MB JUST A LITTLE ABOVE ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. THIS WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY END THE GROWING
SEASON FOR MANY.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 50S...BUT
PUSHING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA INTENSIFIES
ENTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH IS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PARALLEL TO THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT...SLOWING THE SYSTEMS OVERALL
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. WITH THAT IN MIND...THINKING WE`LL SEE A
RELATIVELY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING IN THE 50S...AND
A WARM...PLEASANT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

PRECIP FINALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY DRIER AT MID-LEVELS
COMPARED TO THE GFS SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION...BUT WHEN ARE
THEY NOT 7 DAYS OUT. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS A LIGHT
EVENT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON
RADAR WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY POST-RAINFALL. BY MID-DAY TO
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR ONCE AGAIN...SCATTERING
OUT TOWARDS 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN EARLY MORNING
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF






000
FXUS61 KBUF 160847
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
447 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE RAIN WILL
THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
SUNSHINE RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA RADARS SHOW A WIDE SWATH OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS FROM LAKE ONTARIO NORTHWARD TO NEAR AN INCH ALONG THE
NY/PA BORDER. KBUF SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWERS IS NOW PUSHING
EAST OF LAKE ERIE SO EXPECT ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACROSS
CNY...WITH THE COLD FRONT SIMILARLY NEAR CNY AS WELL. THUS SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT AS
850 HPA TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER EVEN THESE 850
HPA READING OF AROUND +4C OVER THE WARM LAKE WATERS ALONG WITH WINDS
VEERING TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MAY BRING A FEW LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE MORNING HERE...WITH
DAYTIME MIXING ENDING ANY ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO BY TIME ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS GENERATE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...FEEL THAT IT WILL BE LATE ENOUGH IN THE MORNING THAT NO
ORGANIZED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S. THE WARMEST AREAS IN THE
REGION...WHERE HIGHS MAY REACH INTO THE MID 60S WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE
ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE WILL PROMOTE THE GREATEST AFTERNOON WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EXTENDING FROM A POLAR LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WHILE
STRONG RIDGING WILL BE FOUND OVER THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...HOWEVER A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL SHUNT A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS OUR
REGION WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. WHILE THE BULK OF THE DPVA
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO.

850MB TEMPS OF +4 TO +6C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...IN THE LOWER 60S. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENCROACHING CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ONLY PRODUCE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY. UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO BEHIND THE
FRONT COUPLED WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND +2C WILL GENERATE
PLENTY OF STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK...THOUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS IT WILL ESCAPE THE INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE. THE
COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
FOR A CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE MID 50S.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AROUND
TO THE EAST...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THIS CLEARING COUPLED WITH THE VERY DRY AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION COULD RESULT IN THE FIRST WIDESPREAD
FREEZE OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHILE FROST MAY BE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF AREAS NEAR THE LAKE ERIE
AND ONTARIO SHORELINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ARCTIC HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN OF EARLIER IN THE WEEK
BRIEFLY GIVES WAY TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST ON
FRIDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY BEFORE BOOSTING
READINGS INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE BOTH
DAYS THANKS TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A MUCH MORE COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE ESSENTIALLY THREE
TIERS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL BE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST IS OVER HUDSON BAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX. THE SECOND IS A SHORTWAVE
TRACKING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. THE THIRD AND
FINAL FACTOR IS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE THAT WILL BE
MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. TO VARYING
DEGREES THE GLOBAL MODELS PHASE ALL THREE OF THESE SYSTEMS AND BRING
THEM ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE X-FACTOR BEING THE SPEED
AND INTENSITY OF YET ANOTHER PLAYER...A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING
OUT OF THE MACKENZIE BASIN OF FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE MAY END UP DIGGING FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO GENERATE A LARGE SURFACE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF...OR ARRIVE TOO LATE
TO DO SO AND INSTEAD REINVIGORATE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SURFACE
LOW AS IT LIFTS INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. THE GLOBAL GEM IS EVEN
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH THIS FEATURE...HAVING IT MISS OUR
GREAT LAKES LOW ENTIRELY.

IN SPITE OF THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS BETWEEN THESE
SCENARIOS...THE TIMING OF IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IS SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR. AFTER ONE MORE WARM AND
DRY DAY SUNDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
APPROACH THE AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS AT WORK ALONG WITH A
DECENT RETURN FLOW OFF OF MOISTURE OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTIONS FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT FROM ODILE...WE COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS
COOL-DOWN WILL BE A FUNCTION OF THE FINAL TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWEST CANADIAN SHORTWAVE AND THE DEGREE TO WHICH IT ENHANCES THE
LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND SUBSEQUENT POSSIBLE OCCLUSION ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A SWATH OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL AND LOWERING CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY THROUGH 12Z. MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD
BE VFR...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE RAIN SHOWERS.

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS EAST ACROSS NY THIS
MORNING BRINGING AN END TO THE RAINFALL. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ALONG WITH MVFR
CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER AROUND TO
NORTHWESTERLY. OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z
WITH A GENERAL LIGHT WIND FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW INLAND FROM
THE LAKES TONIGHT BUT EXPECT THIS TO REMAIN VFR.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG WITH
LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL BRING 2 TO 4
FOOT WAVES ON LAKE ERIE...AND ON LAKE ONTARIO A LONGER FETCH TO THE
LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES. BASED ON THIS ALONG WITH
WINDS NEARING 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR LAKE
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE WEST TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH/THOMAS
MARINE...SMITH/THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 160847
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
447 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE RAIN WILL
THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
SUNSHINE RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA RADARS SHOW A WIDE SWATH OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS FROM LAKE ONTARIO NORTHWARD TO NEAR AN INCH ALONG THE
NY/PA BORDER. KBUF SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWERS IS NOW PUSHING
EAST OF LAKE ERIE SO EXPECT ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACROSS
CNY...WITH THE COLD FRONT SIMILARLY NEAR CNY AS WELL. THUS SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT AS
850 HPA TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER EVEN THESE 850
HPA READING OF AROUND +4C OVER THE WARM LAKE WATERS ALONG WITH WINDS
VEERING TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MAY BRING A FEW LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE MORNING HERE...WITH
DAYTIME MIXING ENDING ANY ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO BY TIME ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS GENERATE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...FEEL THAT IT WILL BE LATE ENOUGH IN THE MORNING THAT NO
ORGANIZED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S. THE WARMEST AREAS IN THE
REGION...WHERE HIGHS MAY REACH INTO THE MID 60S WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE
ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE WILL PROMOTE THE GREATEST AFTERNOON WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EXTENDING FROM A POLAR LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WHILE
STRONG RIDGING WILL BE FOUND OVER THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...HOWEVER A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL SHUNT A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS OUR
REGION WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. WHILE THE BULK OF THE DPVA
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO.

850MB TEMPS OF +4 TO +6C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...IN THE LOWER 60S. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENCROACHING CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ONLY PRODUCE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY. UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO BEHIND THE
FRONT COUPLED WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND +2C WILL GENERATE
PLENTY OF STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK...THOUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS IT WILL ESCAPE THE INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE. THE
COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
FOR A CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE MID 50S.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AROUND
TO THE EAST...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THIS CLEARING COUPLED WITH THE VERY DRY AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION COULD RESULT IN THE FIRST WIDESPREAD
FREEZE OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHILE FROST MAY BE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF AREAS NEAR THE LAKE ERIE
AND ONTARIO SHORELINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ARCTIC HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN OF EARLIER IN THE WEEK
BRIEFLY GIVES WAY TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST ON
FRIDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY BEFORE BOOSTING
READINGS INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE BOTH
DAYS THANKS TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

A MUCH MORE COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE ESSENTIALLY THREE
TIERS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL BE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST IS OVER HUDSON BAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX. THE SECOND IS A SHORTWAVE
TRACKING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. THE THIRD AND
FINAL FACTOR IS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE THAT WILL BE
MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. TO VARYING
DEGREES THE GLOBAL MODELS PHASE ALL THREE OF THESE SYSTEMS AND BRING
THEM ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE X-FACTOR BEING THE SPEED
AND INTENSITY OF YET ANOTHER PLAYER...A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING
OUT OF THE MACKENZIE BASIN OF FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE MAY END UP DIGGING FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO GENERATE A LARGE SURFACE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF...OR ARRIVE TOO LATE
TO DO SO AND INSTEAD REINVIGORATE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SURFACE
LOW AS IT LIFTS INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. THE GLOBAL GEM IS EVEN
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH THIS FEATURE...HAVING IT MISS OUR
GREAT LAKES LOW ENTIRELY.

IN SPITE OF THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS BETWEEN THESE
SCENARIOS...THE TIMING OF IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IS SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR. AFTER ONE MORE WARM AND
DRY DAY SUNDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
APPROACH THE AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS AT WORK ALONG WITH A
DECENT RETURN FLOW OFF OF MOISTURE OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTIONS FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT FROM ODILE...WE COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS
COOL-DOWN WILL BE A FUNCTION OF THE FINAL TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWEST CANADIAN SHORTWAVE AND THE DEGREE TO WHICH IT ENHANCES THE
LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND SUBSEQUENT POSSIBLE OCCLUSION ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A SWATH OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL AND LOWERING CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY THROUGH 12Z. MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD
BE VFR...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE RAIN SHOWERS.

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS EAST ACROSS NY THIS
MORNING BRINGING AN END TO THE RAINFALL. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ALONG WITH MVFR
CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER AROUND TO
NORTHWESTERLY. OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z
WITH A GENERAL LIGHT WIND FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW INLAND FROM
THE LAKES TONIGHT BUT EXPECT THIS TO REMAIN VFR.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG WITH
LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL BRING 2 TO 4
FOOT WAVES ON LAKE ERIE...AND ON LAKE ONTARIO A LONGER FETCH TO THE
LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES. BASED ON THIS ALONG WITH
WINDS NEARING 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR LAKE
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE WEST TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH/THOMAS
MARINE...SMITH/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 160819
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
419 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1231 AM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST LOOKING OKAY. ONLY A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD
MOST OF FORECAST AREA. MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL/WRN NY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS NRN NY/WRN VT ALSO REPORTING A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
SHOWER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS A TAD ON
THE DRY SIDE WITH 5-10 DEG TDD VALUES STILL NOTED ACROSS THE AREA
SO ALOT OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY IS FALLING AS VIRGA. STILL FULLY
EXPECT THAT AS PBL COOLS AND NEARS SATURATION OVERNIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE LEFT AREAL POPS AND PCPN AMTS
LARGELY UNCHANGED HOWEVER. LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK...GENERALLY MID
40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST SPOTS UNDER LIGHT S/SW WINDS. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
PREDOMINATELY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...TRENDING UNSETTLED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDEST AIR-MASS OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR DROPS INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS JUST BELOW 0C AND
AT 925MB JUST A LITTLE ABOVE ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. THIS WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY END THE GROWING
SEASON FOR MANY.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 50S...BUT
PUSHING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA INTENSIFIES
ENTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH IS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PARALLEL TO THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT...SLOWING THE SYSTEMS OVERALL
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. WITH THAT IN MIND...THINKING WE`LL SEE A
RELATIVELY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING IN THE 50S...AND
A WARM...PLEASANT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

PRECIP FINALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY DRIER AT MID-LEVELS
COMPARED TO THE GFS SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION...BUT WHEN ARE
THEY NOT 7 DAYS OUT. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS A LIGHT
EVENT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON
RADAR WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY POST-RAINFALL. BY MID-DAY TO
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR ONCE AGAIN...SCATTERING
OUT TOWARDS 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN EARLY MORNING
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF









000
FXUS61 KBTV 160819
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
419 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1231 AM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST LOOKING OKAY. ONLY A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD
MOST OF FORECAST AREA. MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL/WRN NY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS NRN NY/WRN VT ALSO REPORTING A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
SHOWER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS A TAD ON
THE DRY SIDE WITH 5-10 DEG TDD VALUES STILL NOTED ACROSS THE AREA
SO ALOT OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY IS FALLING AS VIRGA. STILL FULLY
EXPECT THAT AS PBL COOLS AND NEARS SATURATION OVERNIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE LEFT AREAL POPS AND PCPN AMTS
LARGELY UNCHANGED HOWEVER. LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK...GENERALLY MID
40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST SPOTS UNDER LIGHT S/SW WINDS. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
PREDOMINATELY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...TRENDING UNSETTLED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDEST AIR-MASS OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR DROPS INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS JUST BELOW 0C AND
AT 925MB JUST A LITTLE ABOVE ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. THIS WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY END THE GROWING
SEASON FOR MANY.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 50S...BUT
PUSHING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA INTENSIFIES
ENTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH IS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
PARALLEL TO THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT...SLOWING THE SYSTEMS OVERALL
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. WITH THAT IN MIND...THINKING WE`LL SEE A
RELATIVELY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING IN THE 50S...AND
A WARM...PLEASANT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

PRECIP FINALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY DRIER AT MID-LEVELS
COMPARED TO THE GFS SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION...BUT WHEN ARE
THEY NOT 7 DAYS OUT. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS A LIGHT
EVENT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON
RADAR WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY POST-RAINFALL. BY MID-DAY TO
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR ONCE AGAIN...SCATTERING
OUT TOWARDS 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN EARLY MORNING
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF










000
FXUS61 KOKX 160807
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
407 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE VICINITY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY. IT THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IN THE VICINITY ALONG WITH LIFT IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THE MID AND UPPER LIFT EXITS EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. WITH SOME LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE...ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE 900-800MB
LAYER LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AND WITHOUT A STRONG
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THINKING IS THAT THE AFTERNOON ENDS UP WITH
CLOUDS OUTWEIGHING BLUE SKY FOR MOST SPOTS. A FULL-SUN AFTERNOON
WOULD PRODUCE MID-UPPER 70S FOR THE WARMEST AREAS GIVEN 8-9C 850MB
TEMPS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH NAM MOS...BUT CONSIDERING THE CLOUD
COVER...WENT WITH A NEAR-EVEN BLEND OF NAM AND MAV MOS AS THE MAVS
LOOKED A LITTLE TOO COOL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...CLEARING OUT THE SKY. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL THEN COMBINE
WITH THE CLEAR SKY FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT BELOW NORMAL.

LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN RESULTS IN A SUNNY DAY FOR
WEDNESDAY. SOME CLOUDS THEN PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. 850MB TEMP FALLS ABOUT A
DEGREE FROM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD ENABLE THE
WARMEST SPOTS INLAND TO REACH THE MID 70S...WITH AROUND 70/LOW 70S
FOR THE OTHER AREAS.

AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK DURING WEDS/WEDS NIGHT DUE TO SWELLS FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM EDOUARD...SITUATED WELL OUT TO SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE H5 FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF TROUGHS ALONG
BOTH COASTS OF THE CONUS WITH RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD INTO FRI...BUT THEN NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES
BEGIN TO APPEAR IN THE FLOW LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US THU MORNING WILL LIFT WITH
RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH SAT. A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NE SAT WILL GIVE
WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS SUN AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W.
AS STATED ABOVE...FORECAST DETAILS BECOME FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ON
WITH THE EC THE STRONGEST ALOFT...CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA BY 00Z SUN WHILE THE CMC...GFS AND UKMET MAINTAIN AN
OPEN WAVE ALTHOUGH THESE ALL HAVE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES
AS WELL. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN ITS SLOW MOVEMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN US.

HAVE KEPT THU DRY ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS OR
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER AROUND.
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL
TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRI AND SLIDE OFFSHORE ON SAT. IT IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON THU...THEN FALL
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW ON FRI BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A WARMING TREND
THEN DEVELOPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT SAT AND SUN NIGHTS WHERE THEY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND ANY RAIN WILL BE LIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10-13Z...THROUGH ABOUT 15-17Z OR SO. THEN
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS FORECASTS
FOR DETAILS.

WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC TODAY. LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
VARY AS THE TROUGH NEARS. A BRIEF SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NW IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE WINDS SETTLE BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY TO THE NW.
SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TODAY.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
LIKELY. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
LIKELY. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
LIKELY. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW OR N BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE NW BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY TURN TO THE W/NW BRIEFLY AFTER 13Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...HOWEVER SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WILL
BUILD OCEAN SEAS INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. LEANED CLOSED TO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE...KEEPING SEAS BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SWELLS FROM EDOUARD ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WILL BE DECREASING OVER TIME. SUB ADVSY CONDS WILL
PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THU/THU NIGHT...BUT AN INCREASING NE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI/FRI
NIGHT. GUSTS COULD ALSO REACH SCA LEVELS...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU NIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. NO RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/24
HYDROLOGY...JC/24






000
FXUS61 KBGM 160733
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
333 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL PASS EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE GONE BY SUNRISE...BUT CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY. COLD DRY AIR COULD CAUSE FROST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED INTO WRN NY ATTM. LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER HALF AN INCH NOW AND WITH THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD STAY THAT
WAY. THE FAR SOUTH AND SE WILL NOT SEE THAT MUCH RAIN. DRY NOW AND
BULK OF RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF THERE THIS MORNING. STEADY RAIN
WILL EXIT THE WRN CATSKILLS BY 8 AM...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
COULD BE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT DAYTIME MORNING IN CENT NY AND
CATSKILLS UNTIL MIDDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT CAA FROM THE NW WILL START. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
COMBINED WITH LAKE MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM
THE MIDWEST. WITH THE CLOUDS MODEL GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT HAS COME IN WARMER. VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A FROST AND THEN
ONLY IN NE ONEIDA AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED THE HIGH WEAKENS BUT IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

WED NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
EVEN LARGER SFC HIGH COMING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN KEEP
TEMPS UP AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IF ANYTHING. SCHC POPS STEUBEN TO ONEIDA COUNTIES IN NY LATE WED
NGT AND THU MORNING.

THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NE US FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING
A COLD CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CAUSE FROST TO
FORM. THE COLDEST TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE FROM DELAWARE
TO ONEIDA COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FNT PUSHING THRU THE REGION ATTM BRINGING SHWRS AND LWRD CIGS
AND VSBYS. CHANCE OF THE HILLTOP LOCATIOONS...ITH/BGM...TO GO LIFR
OTRW GNRLY VFR/MVFR CONDS XPCTD WITH THE SYSTEM. MUCH DRIER AIR
MVES IN FOR TUE IWTH A RETURN TO VFR THRU THE END OF THE OD. LGT
WINDS OVRNGT WILL BCOME NW AT LESS THAT 10 KTS BHD THE FNT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM






000
FXUS61 KBGM 160733
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
333 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL PASS EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE GONE BY SUNRISE...BUT CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY. COLD DRY AIR COULD CAUSE FROST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED INTO WRN NY ATTM. LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER HALF AN INCH NOW AND WITH THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD STAY THAT
WAY. THE FAR SOUTH AND SE WILL NOT SEE THAT MUCH RAIN. DRY NOW AND
BULK OF RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF THERE THIS MORNING. STEADY RAIN
WILL EXIT THE WRN CATSKILLS BY 8 AM...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
COULD BE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT DAYTIME MORNING IN CENT NY AND
CATSKILLS UNTIL MIDDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT CAA FROM THE NW WILL START. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
COMBINED WITH LAKE MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM
THE MIDWEST. WITH THE CLOUDS MODEL GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT HAS COME IN WARMER. VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A FROST AND THEN
ONLY IN NE ONEIDA AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED THE HIGH WEAKENS BUT IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

WED NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
EVEN LARGER SFC HIGH COMING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN KEEP
TEMPS UP AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IF ANYTHING. SCHC POPS STEUBEN TO ONEIDA COUNTIES IN NY LATE WED
NGT AND THU MORNING.

THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NE US FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING
A COLD CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CAUSE FROST TO
FORM. THE COLDEST TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE FROM DELAWARE
TO ONEIDA COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FNT PUSHING THRU THE REGION ATTM BRINGING SHWRS AND LWRD CIGS
AND VSBYS. CHANCE OF THE HILLTOP LOCATIOONS...ITH/BGM...TO GO LIFR
OTRW GNRLY VFR/MVFR CONDS XPCTD WITH THE SYSTEM. MUCH DRIER AIR
MVES IN FOR TUE IWTH A RETURN TO VFR THRU THE END OF THE OD. LGT
WINDS OVRNGT WILL BCOME NW AT LESS THAT 10 KTS BHD THE FNT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM






000
FXUS61 KBGM 160733
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
333 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL PASS EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE GONE BY SUNRISE...BUT CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY. COLD DRY AIR COULD CAUSE FROST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED INTO WRN NY ATTM. LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER HALF AN INCH NOW AND WITH THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD STAY THAT
WAY. THE FAR SOUTH AND SE WILL NOT SEE THAT MUCH RAIN. DRY NOW AND
BULK OF RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF THERE THIS MORNING. STEADY RAIN
WILL EXIT THE WRN CATSKILLS BY 8 AM...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
COULD BE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT DAYTIME MORNING IN CENT NY AND
CATSKILLS UNTIL MIDDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT CAA FROM THE NW WILL START. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
COMBINED WITH LAKE MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM
THE MIDWEST. WITH THE CLOUDS MODEL GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT HAS COME IN WARMER. VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A FROST AND THEN
ONLY IN NE ONEIDA AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED THE HIGH WEAKENS BUT IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

WED NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
EVEN LARGER SFC HIGH COMING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN KEEP
TEMPS UP AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IF ANYTHING. SCHC POPS STEUBEN TO ONEIDA COUNTIES IN NY LATE WED
NGT AND THU MORNING.

THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NE US FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING
A COLD CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CAUSE FROST TO
FORM. THE COLDEST TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE FROM DELAWARE
TO ONEIDA COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FNT PUSHING THRU THE REGION ATTM BRINGING SHWRS AND LWRD CIGS
AND VSBYS. CHANCE OF THE HILLTOP LOCATIOONS...ITH/BGM...TO GO LIFR
OTRW GNRLY VFR/MVFR CONDS XPCTD WITH THE SYSTEM. MUCH DRIER AIR
MVES IN FOR TUE IWTH A RETURN TO VFR THRU THE END OF THE OD. LGT
WINDS OVRNGT WILL BCOME NW AT LESS THAT 10 KTS BHD THE FNT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM






000
FXUS61 KBGM 160733
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
333 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL PASS EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE GONE BY SUNRISE...BUT CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY. COLD DRY AIR COULD CAUSE FROST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED INTO WRN NY ATTM. LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER HALF AN INCH NOW AND WITH THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD STAY THAT
WAY. THE FAR SOUTH AND SE WILL NOT SEE THAT MUCH RAIN. DRY NOW AND
BULK OF RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF THERE THIS MORNING. STEADY RAIN
WILL EXIT THE WRN CATSKILLS BY 8 AM...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
COULD BE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT DAYTIME MORNING IN CENT NY AND
CATSKILLS UNTIL MIDDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT CAA FROM THE NW WILL START. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
COMBINED WITH LAKE MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE A LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM
THE MIDWEST. WITH THE CLOUDS MODEL GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT HAS COME IN WARMER. VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A FROST AND THEN
ONLY IN NE ONEIDA AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED THE HIGH WEAKENS BUT IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

WED NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
EVEN LARGER SFC HIGH COMING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN KEEP
TEMPS UP AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IF ANYTHING. SCHC POPS STEUBEN TO ONEIDA COUNTIES IN NY LATE WED
NGT AND THU MORNING.

THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NE US FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING
A COLD CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CAUSE FROST TO
FORM. THE COLDEST TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE FROM DELAWARE
TO ONEIDA COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FNT PUSHING THRU THE REGION ATTM BRINGING SHWRS AND LWRD CIGS
AND VSBYS. CHANCE OF THE HILLTOP LOCATIOONS...ITH/BGM...TO GO LIFR
OTRW GNRLY VFR/MVFR CONDS XPCTD WITH THE SYSTEM. MUCH DRIER AIR
MVES IN FOR TUE IWTH A RETURN TO VFR THRU THE END OF THE OD. LGT
WINDS OVRNGT WILL BCOME NW AT LESS THAT 10 KTS BHD THE FNT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM






000
FXUS61 KBUF 160628
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
228 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE RAIN WILL
THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
SUNSHINE RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AREA RADARS SHOW A WIDE SWATH OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS FROM LAKE ONTARIO NORTHWARD TO NEAR AN INCH ALONG THE
NY/PA BORDER. KBUF SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWERS IS NOW PUSHING
EAST OF LAKE ERIE SO EXPECT ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACROSS
CNY...WITH THE COLD FRONT SIMILARLY NEAR CNY AS WELL. THUS SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT AS
850 HPA TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER EVEN THESE 850
HPA READING OF AROUND +4C OVER THE WARM LAKE WATERS ALONG WITH WINDS
VEERING TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MAY BRING A FEW LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE MORNING HERE...WITH
DAYTIME MIXING ENDING ANY ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO BY TIME ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS GENERATE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...FEEL THAT IT WILL BE LATE ENOUGH IN THE MORNING THAT NO
ORGANIZED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S. THE WARMEST AREAS IN THE
REGION...WHERE HIGHS MAY REACH INTO THE MID 60S WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE
ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE WILL PROMOTE THE GREATEST AFTERNOON WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
INITIALLY DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW
JUST OFF THE SURFACE...A COOL AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS...AND A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO TRAP A SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY MAY
REMAIN MORE CLEAR. EVEN WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
THERE MAY BE SOME SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG. ASSUMING THE CLOUD COVER
MATERIALIZES...IT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS UP A LITTLE IN AN OTHERWISE
CHILLY AIRMASS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION. IF SKIES DO REMAIN CLEAR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS MAY SEE PATCHY FROST.

ON WEDNESDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MEANWHILE A
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO ANY
MORNING STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT AND GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS OF +4C TO +6 WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS...AND LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC. THE FRONT
WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND ANY LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC ASCENT WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE MAY KEEP THESE
SPRINKLES...OR PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE GOING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FROM SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...AND
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
MORE STRATUS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THURSDAY
FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA.

STEADY COLD ADVECTION AND POST-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 50S IN MOST AREAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND. SOME STRATUS MAY STILL LINGER SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING
THE EVENING...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT LATER AT NIGHT
AND SHOULD ALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW TO BREAK DOWN AND YIELD CLEARING
SKIES. A COOL/DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND 40 ON THE LAKE
PLAINS WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE IN THE COOLER SPOTS OF THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH SOME FROST
POSSIBLE. THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. BURGEONING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL AID IN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER AFTER A
CHILLY MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS...WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

OVER THE WEEKEND A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND FORCE DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES AND WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD PUSH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES AT
LEAST INTO THE MID 70S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AIDED BY SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE LATEST 12Z GFS REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN KEEPING SATURDAY DRY...AND THE NEW
12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED STRONGLY IN THAT DIRECTION AND NOW KEEPS A
FRONTAL ZONE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
LAKES. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR MONDAY FOLLOWING THE SUNDAY COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A SWATH OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL AND LOWERING CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY THROUGH 12Z. MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD
BE VFR...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE RAIN SHOWERS.

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS EAST ACROSS NY THIS
MORNING BRINGING AN END TO THE RAINFALL. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ALONG WITH MVFR
CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER AROUND TO
NORTHWESTERLY. OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z
WITH A GENERAL LIGHT WIND FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW INLAND FROM
THE LAKES TONIGHT BUT EXPECT THIS TO REMAIN VFR.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG WITH
LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL BRING 2 TO 4
FOOT WAVES ON LAKE ERIE...AND ON LAKE ONTARIO A LONGER FETCH TO THE
LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES. BASED ON THIS ALONG WITH
WINDS NEARING 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR LAKE
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE WEST TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH/THOMAS
MARINE...SMITH/THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 160628
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
228 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE RAIN WILL
THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
SUNSHINE RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AREA RADARS SHOW A WIDE SWATH OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS FROM LAKE ONTARIO NORTHWARD TO NEAR AN INCH ALONG THE
NY/PA BORDER. KBUF SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWERS IS NOW PUSHING
EAST OF LAKE ERIE SO EXPECT ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACROSS
CNY...WITH THE COLD FRONT SIMILARLY NEAR CNY AS WELL. THUS SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT AS
850 HPA TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER EVEN THESE 850
HPA READING OF AROUND +4C OVER THE WARM LAKE WATERS ALONG WITH WINDS
VEERING TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MAY BRING A FEW LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE MORNING HERE...WITH
DAYTIME MIXING ENDING ANY ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO BY TIME ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS GENERATE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...FEEL THAT IT WILL BE LATE ENOUGH IN THE MORNING THAT NO
ORGANIZED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S. THE WARMEST AREAS IN THE
REGION...WHERE HIGHS MAY REACH INTO THE MID 60S WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE
ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE WILL PROMOTE THE GREATEST AFTERNOON WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
INITIALLY DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW
JUST OFF THE SURFACE...A COOL AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS...AND A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO TRAP A SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY MAY
REMAIN MORE CLEAR. EVEN WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
THERE MAY BE SOME SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG. ASSUMING THE CLOUD COVER
MATERIALIZES...IT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS UP A LITTLE IN AN OTHERWISE
CHILLY AIRMASS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION. IF SKIES DO REMAIN CLEAR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS MAY SEE PATCHY FROST.

ON WEDNESDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MEANWHILE A
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO ANY
MORNING STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT AND GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS OF +4C TO +6 WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS...AND LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC. THE FRONT
WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND ANY LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC ASCENT WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE MAY KEEP THESE
SPRINKLES...OR PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE GOING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FROM SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...AND
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
MORE STRATUS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THURSDAY
FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA.

STEADY COLD ADVECTION AND POST-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 50S IN MOST AREAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND. SOME STRATUS MAY STILL LINGER SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING
THE EVENING...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT LATER AT NIGHT
AND SHOULD ALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW TO BREAK DOWN AND YIELD CLEARING
SKIES. A COOL/DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND 40 ON THE LAKE
PLAINS WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE IN THE COOLER SPOTS OF THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH SOME FROST
POSSIBLE. THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. BURGEONING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL AID IN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER AFTER A
CHILLY MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS...WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

OVER THE WEEKEND A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND FORCE DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES AND WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD PUSH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES AT
LEAST INTO THE MID 70S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AIDED BY SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE LATEST 12Z GFS REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN KEEPING SATURDAY DRY...AND THE NEW
12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED STRONGLY IN THAT DIRECTION AND NOW KEEPS A
FRONTAL ZONE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
LAKES. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR MONDAY FOLLOWING THE SUNDAY COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A SWATH OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL AND LOWERING CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY THROUGH 12Z. MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD
BE VFR...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE RAIN SHOWERS.

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS EAST ACROSS NY THIS
MORNING BRINGING AN END TO THE RAINFALL. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ALONG WITH MVFR
CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER AROUND TO
NORTHWESTERLY. OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z
WITH A GENERAL LIGHT WIND FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW INLAND FROM
THE LAKES TONIGHT BUT EXPECT THIS TO REMAIN VFR.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG WITH
LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL BRING 2 TO 4
FOOT WAVES ON LAKE ERIE...AND ON LAKE ONTARIO A LONGER FETCH TO THE
LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES. BASED ON THIS ALONG WITH
WINDS NEARING 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR LAKE
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE WEST TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH/THOMAS
MARINE...SMITH/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 160544
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1231 AM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST LOOKING OKAY. ONLY A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD
MOST OF FORECAST AREA. MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL/WRN NY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS NRN NY/WRN VT ALSO REPORTING A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
SHOWER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS A TAD ON
THE DRY SIDE WITH 5-10 DEG TDD VALUES STILL NOTED ACROSS THE AREA
SO ALOT OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY IS FALLING AS VIRGA. STILL FULLY
EXPECT THAT AS PBL COOLS AND NEARS SATURATION OVERNIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE LEFT AREAL POPS AND PCPN AMTS
LARGELY UNCHANGED HOWEVER. LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK...GENERALLY MID
40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST SPOTS UNDER LIGHT S/SW WINDS. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.


SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON
RADAR WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY POST-RAINFALL. BY MID-DAY TO
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR ONCE AGAIN...SCATTERING
OUT TOWARDS 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN EARLY MORNING
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 160544
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1231 AM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST LOOKING OKAY. ONLY A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD
MOST OF FORECAST AREA. MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL/WRN NY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS NRN NY/WRN VT ALSO REPORTING A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
SHOWER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS A TAD ON
THE DRY SIDE WITH 5-10 DEG TDD VALUES STILL NOTED ACROSS THE AREA
SO ALOT OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY IS FALLING AS VIRGA. STILL FULLY
EXPECT THAT AS PBL COOLS AND NEARS SATURATION OVERNIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE LEFT AREAL POPS AND PCPN AMTS
LARGELY UNCHANGED HOWEVER. LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK...GENERALLY MID
40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST SPOTS UNDER LIGHT S/SW WINDS. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.


SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON
RADAR WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY POST-RAINFALL. BY MID-DAY TO
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR ONCE AGAIN...SCATTERING
OUT TOWARDS 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN EARLY MORNING
FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBGM 160535
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
135 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE QUICK TO
EXIT IN THE MORNING...YET CLOUDS MAY HANG IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE BREAKING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK KEEPING THE REGION DRY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TO LINGER THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION (HIGHER POPS) OVER CENTRAL NY LONGER BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBS TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

200 PM UPDATE... PLENTY OF EARLY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH APPROACH. WAVE
CAN BE SEEN ALREADY CRUISING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT THIS EVENING VIA TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING...AS UPPER LEVELS AND FORCED ASCENT OF RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET...OUTPACE THE LOW LEVELS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON WEAK FRONT-SURFACE TROUGH THEN SWEEPING WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AREA MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM. IT IS A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO WITH
ONLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH. ALSO...THE FAIRLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO PA...WILL
SHUNT WELL EAST TO THE MIDATLANTIC COAST BY THE TIME THE TROUGH
ARRIVES...PRECLUDING ANY CHANCE OF THUNDER. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS-SPRINKLES BY DAWN WILL BE QUICK TO EXIT
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND COOL AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...SHOULD MAKE THE CLOUDS MORE
STUBBORN TO BREAK. LOSS OF DIURNAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY LATE IN
THE DAY SHOULD THEN HASTEN IT. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGHS TO
MAINLY LOW TO MID 60S FROM TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD...BUT FARTHER
SOUTH CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOONER ALLOWING THE SUN TO BRING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S-NEAR 70 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
MIDWESTERN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY NEW COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DROP OUT OF CANADA BY LATE THURSDAY. THESE TWO HIGHS WILL BE
SEPARATED BY A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SHALLOW POST-FRONTAL
MOIST LAYER COULD YIELD A FEW SPRINKLES FROM TUG HILL TO FINGER
LAKES REGION EARLY THURSDAY...OTHERWISE JUST COOL AND CLOUDY FOR
MOST OF THE NEW YORK ZONES THURSDAY /LESS SO SOUTH OF THE TWIN
TIERS IN NEPA/.

WITH THE FIRST HIGH NOT COMING OUT OF CANADA...GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT YET WITH PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL ONLY LIMITED
TO THE WESTERN CATSKILL VALLEYS IF ANYTHING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES JUST SHY OF
CLIMATOLOGY. FROST POTENTIAL MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER COME THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH DESCENDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

COLD FNT PUSHING THRU THE REGION ATTM BRINGING SHWRS AND LWRD CIGS
AND VSBYS. CHANCE OF THE HILLTOP LOCATIOONS...ITH/BGM...TO GO LIFR
OTRW GNRLY VFR/MVFR CONDS XPCTD WITH THE SYSTEM. MUCH DRIER AIR
MVES IN FOR TUE IWTH A RETURN TO VFR THRU THE END OF THE OD. LGT
WINDS OVRNGT WILL BCOME NW AT LESS THAT 10 KTS BHD THE FNT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 160535
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
135 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE QUICK TO
EXIT IN THE MORNING...YET CLOUDS MAY HANG IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE BREAKING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK KEEPING THE REGION DRY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TO LINGER THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION (HIGHER POPS) OVER CENTRAL NY LONGER BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBS TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

200 PM UPDATE... PLENTY OF EARLY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH APPROACH. WAVE
CAN BE SEEN ALREADY CRUISING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT THIS EVENING VIA TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING...AS UPPER LEVELS AND FORCED ASCENT OF RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET...OUTPACE THE LOW LEVELS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON WEAK FRONT-SURFACE TROUGH THEN SWEEPING WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AREA MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM. IT IS A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO WITH
ONLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH. ALSO...THE FAIRLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO PA...WILL
SHUNT WELL EAST TO THE MIDATLANTIC COAST BY THE TIME THE TROUGH
ARRIVES...PRECLUDING ANY CHANCE OF THUNDER. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS-SPRINKLES BY DAWN WILL BE QUICK TO EXIT
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND COOL AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...SHOULD MAKE THE CLOUDS MORE
STUBBORN TO BREAK. LOSS OF DIURNAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY LATE IN
THE DAY SHOULD THEN HASTEN IT. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGHS TO
MAINLY LOW TO MID 60S FROM TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD...BUT FARTHER
SOUTH CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOONER ALLOWING THE SUN TO BRING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S-NEAR 70 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
MIDWESTERN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY NEW COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DROP OUT OF CANADA BY LATE THURSDAY. THESE TWO HIGHS WILL BE
SEPARATED BY A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SHALLOW POST-FRONTAL
MOIST LAYER COULD YIELD A FEW SPRINKLES FROM TUG HILL TO FINGER
LAKES REGION EARLY THURSDAY...OTHERWISE JUST COOL AND CLOUDY FOR
MOST OF THE NEW YORK ZONES THURSDAY /LESS SO SOUTH OF THE TWIN
TIERS IN NEPA/.

WITH THE FIRST HIGH NOT COMING OUT OF CANADA...GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT YET WITH PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL ONLY LIMITED
TO THE WESTERN CATSKILL VALLEYS IF ANYTHING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES JUST SHY OF
CLIMATOLOGY. FROST POTENTIAL MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER COME THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH DESCENDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

COLD FNT PUSHING THRU THE REGION ATTM BRINGING SHWRS AND LWRD CIGS
AND VSBYS. CHANCE OF THE HILLTOP LOCATIOONS...ITH/BGM...TO GO LIFR
OTRW GNRLY VFR/MVFR CONDS XPCTD WITH THE SYSTEM. MUCH DRIER AIR
MVES IN FOR TUE IWTH A RETURN TO VFR THRU THE END OF THE OD. LGT
WINDS OVRNGT WILL BCOME NW AT LESS THAT 10 KTS BHD THE FNT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 160535
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
135 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE QUICK TO
EXIT IN THE MORNING...YET CLOUDS MAY HANG IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE BREAKING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK KEEPING THE REGION DRY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TO LINGER THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION (HIGHER POPS) OVER CENTRAL NY LONGER BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBS TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

200 PM UPDATE... PLENTY OF EARLY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH APPROACH. WAVE
CAN BE SEEN ALREADY CRUISING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT THIS EVENING VIA TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING...AS UPPER LEVELS AND FORCED ASCENT OF RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET...OUTPACE THE LOW LEVELS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON WEAK FRONT-SURFACE TROUGH THEN SWEEPING WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AREA MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM. IT IS A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO WITH
ONLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH. ALSO...THE FAIRLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO PA...WILL
SHUNT WELL EAST TO THE MIDATLANTIC COAST BY THE TIME THE TROUGH
ARRIVES...PRECLUDING ANY CHANCE OF THUNDER. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS-SPRINKLES BY DAWN WILL BE QUICK TO EXIT
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND COOL AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...SHOULD MAKE THE CLOUDS MORE
STUBBORN TO BREAK. LOSS OF DIURNAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY LATE IN
THE DAY SHOULD THEN HASTEN IT. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGHS TO
MAINLY LOW TO MID 60S FROM TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD...BUT FARTHER
SOUTH CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOONER ALLOWING THE SUN TO BRING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S-NEAR 70 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
MIDWESTERN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY NEW COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DROP OUT OF CANADA BY LATE THURSDAY. THESE TWO HIGHS WILL BE
SEPARATED BY A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SHALLOW POST-FRONTAL
MOIST LAYER COULD YIELD A FEW SPRINKLES FROM TUG HILL TO FINGER
LAKES REGION EARLY THURSDAY...OTHERWISE JUST COOL AND CLOUDY FOR
MOST OF THE NEW YORK ZONES THURSDAY /LESS SO SOUTH OF THE TWIN
TIERS IN NEPA/.

WITH THE FIRST HIGH NOT COMING OUT OF CANADA...GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT YET WITH PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL ONLY LIMITED
TO THE WESTERN CATSKILL VALLEYS IF ANYTHING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES JUST SHY OF
CLIMATOLOGY. FROST POTENTIAL MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER COME THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH DESCENDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

COLD FNT PUSHING THRU THE REGION ATTM BRINGING SHWRS AND LWRD CIGS
AND VSBYS. CHANCE OF THE HILLTOP LOCATIOONS...ITH/BGM...TO GO LIFR
OTRW GNRLY VFR/MVFR CONDS XPCTD WITH THE SYSTEM. MUCH DRIER AIR
MVES IN FOR TUE IWTH A RETURN TO VFR THRU THE END OF THE OD. LGT
WINDS OVRNGT WILL BCOME NW AT LESS THAT 10 KTS BHD THE FNT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 160535
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
135 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE QUICK TO
EXIT IN THE MORNING...YET CLOUDS MAY HANG IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE BREAKING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK KEEPING THE REGION DRY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TO LINGER THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION (HIGHER POPS) OVER CENTRAL NY LONGER BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBS TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

200 PM UPDATE... PLENTY OF EARLY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH APPROACH. WAVE
CAN BE SEEN ALREADY CRUISING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT THIS EVENING VIA TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING...AS UPPER LEVELS AND FORCED ASCENT OF RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET...OUTPACE THE LOW LEVELS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON WEAK FRONT-SURFACE TROUGH THEN SWEEPING WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AREA MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM. IT IS A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO WITH
ONLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH. ALSO...THE FAIRLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO PA...WILL
SHUNT WELL EAST TO THE MIDATLANTIC COAST BY THE TIME THE TROUGH
ARRIVES...PRECLUDING ANY CHANCE OF THUNDER. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS-SPRINKLES BY DAWN WILL BE QUICK TO EXIT
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND COOL AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...SHOULD MAKE THE CLOUDS MORE
STUBBORN TO BREAK. LOSS OF DIURNAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY LATE IN
THE DAY SHOULD THEN HASTEN IT. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGHS TO
MAINLY LOW TO MID 60S FROM TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD...BUT FARTHER
SOUTH CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOONER ALLOWING THE SUN TO BRING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S-NEAR 70 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
MIDWESTERN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY NEW COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DROP OUT OF CANADA BY LATE THURSDAY. THESE TWO HIGHS WILL BE
SEPARATED BY A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SHALLOW POST-FRONTAL
MOIST LAYER COULD YIELD A FEW SPRINKLES FROM TUG HILL TO FINGER
LAKES REGION EARLY THURSDAY...OTHERWISE JUST COOL AND CLOUDY FOR
MOST OF THE NEW YORK ZONES THURSDAY /LESS SO SOUTH OF THE TWIN
TIERS IN NEPA/.

WITH THE FIRST HIGH NOT COMING OUT OF CANADA...GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT YET WITH PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL ONLY LIMITED
TO THE WESTERN CATSKILL VALLEYS IF ANYTHING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES JUST SHY OF
CLIMATOLOGY. FROST POTENTIAL MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER COME THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH DESCENDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

COLD FNT PUSHING THRU THE REGION ATTM BRINGING SHWRS AND LWRD CIGS
AND VSBYS. CHANCE OF THE HILLTOP LOCATIOONS...ITH/BGM...TO GO LIFR
OTRW GNRLY VFR/MVFR CONDS XPCTD WITH THE SYSTEM. MUCH DRIER AIR
MVES IN FOR TUE IWTH A RETURN TO VFR THRU THE END OF THE OD. LGT
WINDS OVRNGT WILL BCOME NW AT LESS THAT 10 KTS BHD THE FNT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM







000
FXUS61 KOKX 160529
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
129 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THESE WILL MOVE ACROSS AND
WEAKEN TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE WITH THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO TEMPS AND
CLOUD COVER.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS.
THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AS WELL AS A DIGGING SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL HAVE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE.

LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS...YIELDING A RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

POPS INCREASE LATE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 08Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WENT WITH COVERAGE
WORDING AND ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NUMEROUS NEAR NYC AND N/W
BUT MORE SCATTERED FARTHER EAST. MIGHT NEED TO LOWER POPS WITH THE
NEXT UPDATE BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING A CONSISTENT TREND OF BREAKING UP AND
LOWERING THE QPF AS THE FRONT TRACKS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE JET STREAK WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY SO THE FORCING FOR
LIFT WILL BE LOST AND THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL WEAKEN...LEAVING
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THEREAFTER
ON TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.

OVERALL CONDITIONS MAY END UP DRYING OUT EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
WIND DIRECTION IS ALSO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH LIGHT WIND
SPEEDS...SO THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LESS MOISTURE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NEAR.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WERE A BLEND OF 2/3 NAM12 AND 1/3
GMOS...ACCOUNTING FOR LOWER TEMPS DUE TO WET GROUND FROM
RAINFALL...ALLOWING FOR MORE INSOLATION TO GO INTO THE EVAPORATION
OF WATER. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAKEN
LATER TUESDAY MORNING. THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND WITH A DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECREASING
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND ADVECTING IN COOLER AIR.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WHICH YIELD A RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

THERE IS LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON TUESDAY...BUT DUE TO AN
INCREASING SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOURD...THIS COULD BE
ELEVATED TO A MODERATE RISK LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND NO
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY WITH JUST A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE TROUGH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AT NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS WED-THU NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL DROP
VALUES INTO THE 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

NAM/MOSGUIDE BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A
MOSGUIDE/WPC BLEND THEREAFTER. VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST OVERALL WITH TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES SAT-MON AS HEIGHTS RISE AHEAD
OF A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. 20/00Z ECMWF RUN WAS AN
OUTLIER IN RELATION TO PRECIP ON SATURDAY. 20/12Z HAS COME INTO LINE
WITH THE GFS/CMC LENDING TO A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WELL
TO THE WEST WILL BE APPROACHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE EAST...EXPECT PRECIP TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AHEAD THE FRONT ON SATURDAY SO EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND ANY RAIN WILL BE LIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 9-11Z...THROUGH ABOUT 14-16Z OR SO. THEN
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS FORECASTS
FOR DETAILS.

WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC TODAY. LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
VARY AS THE TROUGH NEARS. A BRIEF SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NW IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE WINDS SETTLE BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY TO THE NW.
SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TODAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NE-E WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EVEN WITH INCREASING SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS
WED-SAT WITH MAINLY SUB SCA CRITERIA EXPECTED. WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW
PASSING TO THE EAST...SWELLS INCREASE WED WITH OCEAN SEAS POSSIBLY
REACHING 5 FT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS WELL...WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SEAS COULD ONCE AGAIN RISE
AGAIN TO 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THEREAFTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/LN
NEAR TERM...JC/JM/DW
SHORT TERM...JM/DW
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JM/LN
HYDROLOGY...JM/LN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 160529
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
129 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THESE WILL MOVE ACROSS AND
WEAKEN TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE WITH THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO TEMPS AND
CLOUD COVER.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS.
THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AS WELL AS A DIGGING SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL HAVE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE.

LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS...YIELDING A RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

POPS INCREASE LATE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 08Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WENT WITH COVERAGE
WORDING AND ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NUMEROUS NEAR NYC AND N/W
BUT MORE SCATTERED FARTHER EAST. MIGHT NEED TO LOWER POPS WITH THE
NEXT UPDATE BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING A CONSISTENT TREND OF BREAKING UP AND
LOWERING THE QPF AS THE FRONT TRACKS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE JET STREAK WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY SO THE FORCING FOR
LIFT WILL BE LOST AND THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL WEAKEN...LEAVING
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THEREAFTER
ON TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.

OVERALL CONDITIONS MAY END UP DRYING OUT EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
WIND DIRECTION IS ALSO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH LIGHT WIND
SPEEDS...SO THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LESS MOISTURE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NEAR.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WERE A BLEND OF 2/3 NAM12 AND 1/3
GMOS...ACCOUNTING FOR LOWER TEMPS DUE TO WET GROUND FROM
RAINFALL...ALLOWING FOR MORE INSOLATION TO GO INTO THE EVAPORATION
OF WATER. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAKEN
LATER TUESDAY MORNING. THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND WITH A DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECREASING
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND ADVECTING IN COOLER AIR.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WHICH YIELD A RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

THERE IS LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON TUESDAY...BUT DUE TO AN
INCREASING SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOURD...THIS COULD BE
ELEVATED TO A MODERATE RISK LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND NO
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY WITH JUST A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE TROUGH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AT NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS WED-THU NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL DROP
VALUES INTO THE 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

NAM/MOSGUIDE BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A
MOSGUIDE/WPC BLEND THEREAFTER. VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST OVERALL WITH TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES SAT-MON AS HEIGHTS RISE AHEAD
OF A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. 20/00Z ECMWF RUN WAS AN
OUTLIER IN RELATION TO PRECIP ON SATURDAY. 20/12Z HAS COME INTO LINE
WITH THE GFS/CMC LENDING TO A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WELL
TO THE WEST WILL BE APPROACHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE EAST...EXPECT PRECIP TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AHEAD THE FRONT ON SATURDAY SO EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST LATE.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND ANY RAIN WILL BE LIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 9-11Z...THROUGH ABOUT 14-16Z OR SO. THEN
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS FORECASTS
FOR DETAILS.

WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC TODAY. LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
VARY AS THE TROUGH NEARS. A BRIEF SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NW IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE WINDS SETTLE BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY TO THE NW.
SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TODAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NE-E WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EVEN WITH INCREASING SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS
WED-SAT WITH MAINLY SUB SCA CRITERIA EXPECTED. WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW
PASSING TO THE EAST...SWELLS INCREASE WED WITH OCEAN SEAS POSSIBLY
REACHING 5 FT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS WELL...WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SEAS COULD ONCE AGAIN RISE
AGAIN TO 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THEREAFTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/LN
NEAR TERM...JC/JM/DW
SHORT TERM...JM/DW
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JM/LN
HYDROLOGY...JM/LN







000
FXUS61 KALY 160524
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
124 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES THE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO ADVANCE E/NE
INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH SOME
SPRINKLES EXTENDING OUT AHEAD OF THIS MAIN BAND FURTHER E AND S
INTO SOUTHERN VT...THE SARATOGA REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN TO
INCREASE RAPIDLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90...PARTICULARLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS INTO THE
SARATOGA/LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VT...WHERE SOME POCKETS
OF MODERATE RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. RAIN MAY BE A BIT MORE
INTERMITTENT AND LIGHTER SLIGHTLY FURTHER S AND E INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

EVEN FURTHER S...INTO THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION
AND NW CT...LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR ANOTHER 1-3
HOURS. EVEN AFTER 4 AM...ONLY A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED IN
THIS AREA.

TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AS A SOLID CLOUD DECK PREVAILS. AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...WE EXPECT SOME WET BULB COOLING TO DROP TEMPS ABOUT 2-3
DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS...WITH MINS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WARMEST CLOSEST TO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AS THE SHORT
WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECTING A DRY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ON THE COOL SIDE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES FOR
MID SEPTEMBER.

FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA PASSING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR FROST MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ADD MENTION TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE
REGION. BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING OUR REGION AND WITH T850 AND T925
TEMPERATURES ON 15/12Z MODEL DATA BETWEEN 0C AND 4C...PATCHY FROST
MAYBE POSSIBLE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION
AS FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND EXIT THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE ATLANTIC
COAST LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BRINGING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 60S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 70S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 15/12Z GLOBAL AND PROBABILISTIC MODELS
OUTPUT NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
THE TIMING HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. SYNOPTIC PATTERNS
ALSO DIFFER WHICH DOES CHANGE THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DUE TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE VORTICITY
MAXIMA UPSTREAM OF THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSION. SOME 12Z GUIDANCE
EXHIBIT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THAT MAY
SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT POSING A MULTIPLE DAY
PRECIPITATION EVENT WHILE OTHER DATA SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HELPING THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION MUCH MORE QUICKLY. UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WILL
BE MADE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
06Z WED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF DURING THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN OCNL MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY. KALB IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME SHOWERS BUT MAINTAIN VFR
CONDS WHILE KPOU WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY. THE SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ENDING AROUND 12Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH BKN MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE MORNING...ESP AT
KPSF...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND.
EVENTUALLY...ALL SITES LOOK TO SCT OUT BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AND SKC CONDS THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL BE DEVELOPING AT KGFL AFT 05Z WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CIGS
AND VSBYS TO IFR.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS BECOMING CALM TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
DOMINATES.


RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 90 TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM VALUES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH
HIGHER VALUES AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LOWER VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/FRUGIS/IAA
NEAR TERM...KL/FRUGIS/IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...11/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KBTV 160452
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1231 AM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST LOOKING OKAY. ONLY A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD
MOST OF FORECAST AREA. MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL/WRN NY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS NRN NY/WRN VT ALSO REPORTING A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
SHOWER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS A TAD ON
THE DRY SIDE WITH 5-10 DEG TDD VALUES STILL NOTED ACROSS THE AREA
SO ALOT OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY IS FALLING AS VIRGA. STILL FULLY
EXPECT THAT AS PBL COOLS AND NEARS SATURATION OVERNIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE LEFT AREAL POPS AND PCPN AMTS
LARGELY UNCHANGED HOWEVER. LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK...GENERALLY MID
40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST SPOTS UNDER LIGHT S/SW WINDS. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.


SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT...SO MOSTLY VFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV. CEILINGS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO
LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD AREA-WIDE TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT (5
KNOTS OR LESS) TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI






000
FXUS61 KBTV 160452
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1231 AM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST LOOKING OKAY. ONLY A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD
MOST OF FORECAST AREA. MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL/WRN NY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS NRN NY/WRN VT ALSO REPORTING A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
SHOWER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS A TAD ON
THE DRY SIDE WITH 5-10 DEG TDD VALUES STILL NOTED ACROSS THE AREA
SO ALOT OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY IS FALLING AS VIRGA. STILL FULLY
EXPECT THAT AS PBL COOLS AND NEARS SATURATION OVERNIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE LEFT AREAL POPS AND PCPN AMTS
LARGELY UNCHANGED HOWEVER. LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK...GENERALLY MID
40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST SPOTS UNDER LIGHT S/SW WINDS. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.


SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT...SO MOSTLY VFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV. CEILINGS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO
LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD AREA-WIDE TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT (5
KNOTS OR LESS) TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI







000
FXUS61 KOKX 160438
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1238 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL IVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THESE WILL MOVE ACROSS AND
WEAKEN TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE WITH THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO TEMPS AND
CLOUD COVER.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS.
THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AS WELL AS A DIGGING SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL HAVE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE.

LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS...YIELDING A RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

POPS INCREASE LATE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 08Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WENT WITH COVERAGE
WORDING AND ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NUMEROUS NEAR NYC AND N/W
BUT MORE SCATTERED FARTHER EAST. MIGHT NEED TO LOWER POPS WITH THE
NEXT UPDATE BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING A CONSISTENT TREND OF BREAKING UP AND
LOWERING THE QPF AS THE FRONT TRACKS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE JET STREAK WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY SO THE FORCING FOR
LIFT WILL BE LOST AND THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL WEAKEN...LEAVING
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THEREAFTER
ON TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.

OVERALL CONDITIONS MAY END UP DRYING OUT EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
WIND DIRECTION IS ALSO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH LIGHT WIND
SPEEDS...SO THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LESS MOISTURE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NEAR.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WERE A BLEND OF 2/3 NAM12 AND 1/3
GMOS...ACCOUNTING FOR LOWER TEMPS DUE TO WET GROUND FROM
RAINFALL...ALLOWING FOR MORE INSOLATION TO GO INTO THE EVAPORATION
OF WATER. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAKEN
LATER TUESDAY MORNING. THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND WITH A DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECREASING
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND ADVECTING IN COOLER AIR.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WHICH YIELD A RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

THERE IS LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON TUESDAY...BUT DUE TO AN
INCREASING SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOURD...THIS COULD BE
ELEVATED TO A MODERATE RISK LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND NO
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY WITH JUST A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE TROUGH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AT NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS WED-THU NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL DROP
VALUES INTO THE 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

NAM/MOSGUIDE BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A
MOSGUIDE/WPC BLEND THEREAFTER. VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST OVERALL WITH TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES SAT-MON AS HEIGHTS RISE AHEAD
OF A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. 20/00Z ECMWF RUN WAS AN
OUTLIER IN RELATION TO PRECIP ON SATURDAY. 20/12Z HAS COME INTO LINE
WITH THE GFS/CMC LENDING TO A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WELL
TO THE WEST WILL BE APPROACHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE EAST...EXPECT PRECIP TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AHEAD THE FRONT ON SATURDAY SO EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. LIGHT S-SW FLOW
CONTINUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANY PRECIP WILL BE
LIGHT...AND EXPECTING VFR CONDS IN ANY -RA THAT DEVELOPS.

WINDS WILL BE 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE
TROUGH...WINDS VEER TO THE NW AT 6-8 KT BEFORE BACKING TO THE W-SW
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW...HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS COULD
RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 260 TO 320 MAG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE-E WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EVEN WITH INCREASING SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS
WED-SAT WITH MAINLY SUB SCA CRITERIA EXPECTED. WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW
PASSING TO THE EAST...SWELLS INCREASE WED WITH OCEAN SEAS POSSIBLY
REACHING 5 FT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS WELL...WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SEAS COULD ONCE AGAIN RISE
AGAIN TO 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THEREAFTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/LN
NEAR TERM...JC/JM/DW
SHORT TERM...JM/DW
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JM/LN
HYDROLOGY...JM/LN






000
FXUS61 KBUF 160245
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1045 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS RAIN WILL COME TO
AN END EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT BRINGS CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE UPPED THE POPS TO NEAR 100PCT FOR A LARGE SWATHE OF WESTERN
NY TO THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES EARLY OVERNIGHT AND BUMPED UP THE
QPF FOR WESTCENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER TO RAINFALL TOTALS
JUST ABOVE A HALF INCH POSSIBLE. THE CORE OF STEADIER AND HEAVIER
RAIN SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT..AND LIFT AHEAD OF
THE FEATURE COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY REMAINS
TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND DO NOT FEEL THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TO THE NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACROSS
CNY...WITH THE COLD FRONT SIMILARLY NEAR CNY AS WELL. THUS SYNOPTIC
SHOWERS FOR TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE RESERVED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT AS 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER
EVEN THESE 850 HPA READING OF AROUND +4C OVER THE WARM LAKE WATERS
ALONG WITH WINDS VEERING TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MAY BRING A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW
NYS. WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE MORNING HERE...WITH
DAYTIME MIXING ENDING ANY ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO BY TIME ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS GENERATE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...FEEL THAT IT WILL BE LATE ENOUGH IN THE MORNING THAT NO
ORGANIZED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.

CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND PRETTY
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FOR TOMORROW HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S. THE WARMEST AREAS IN
THE REGION...WHERE HIGHS MAY REACH INTO THE MID 60S WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE
ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE WILL PROMOTE THE GREATEST AFTERNOON WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
INITIALLY DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW
JUST OFF THE SURFACE...A COOL AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS...AND A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO TRAP A SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY MAY
REMAIN MORE CLEAR. EVEN WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
THERE MAY BE SOME SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG. ASSUMING THE CLOUD COVER
MATERIALIZES...IT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS UP A LITTLE IN AN OTHERWISE
CHILLY AIRMASS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION. IF SKIES DO REMAIN CLEAR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS MAY SEE PATCHY FROST.

ON WEDNESDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MEANWHILE A
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO ANY
MORNING STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT AND GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS OF +4C TO +6 WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS...AND LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC. THE FRONT
WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND ANY LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC ASCENT WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE MAY KEEP THESE
SPRINKLES...OR PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE GOING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FROM SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...AND
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
MORE STRATUS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THURSDAY
FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA.

STEADY COLD ADVECTION AND POST-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 50S IN MOST AREAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND. SOME STRATUS MAY STILL LINGER SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING
THE EVENING...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT LATER AT NIGHT
AND SHOULD ALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW TO BREAK DOWN AND YIELD CLEARING
SKIES. A COOL/DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND 40 ON THE LAKE
PLAINS WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE IN THE COOLER SPOTS OF THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH SOME FROST
POSSIBLE. THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. BURGEONING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL AID IN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER AFTER A
CHILLY MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS...WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

OVER THE WEEKEND A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND FORCE DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES AND WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD PUSH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES AT
LEAST INTO THE MID 70S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AIDED BY SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE LATEST 12Z GFS REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN KEEPING SATURDAY DRY...AND THE NEW
12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED STRONGLY IN THAT DIRECTION AND NOW KEEPS A
FRONTAL ZONE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
LAKES. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR MONDAY FOLLOWING THE SUNDAY COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL AND LOWERING CIGS ACROSS
THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z. MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD BE
VFR...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE
RAIN SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS EASTWARD AXIS
ALONG WITH THE NOW EASTWARD WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING AN END TO
THE RAINFALL. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ALONG WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TUESDAY
MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY.
OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 12 AND 00Z
TOMORROW WITH A GENERAL LIGHT WIND FLOW.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG WITH
LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL BRING 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES ON LAKE ERIE...AND ON LAKE
ONTARIO A LONGER FETCH TO THE LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES.
BASED ON THIS ALONG WITH WINDS NEARING 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR LAKE ONTARIO FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS/WCH
MARINE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 160245
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1045 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS RAIN WILL COME TO
AN END EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT BRINGS CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE UPPED THE POPS TO NEAR 100PCT FOR A LARGE SWATHE OF WESTERN
NY TO THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES EARLY OVERNIGHT AND BUMPED UP THE
QPF FOR WESTCENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER TO RAINFALL TOTALS
JUST ABOVE A HALF INCH POSSIBLE. THE CORE OF STEADIER AND HEAVIER
RAIN SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT..AND LIFT AHEAD OF
THE FEATURE COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY REMAINS
TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND DO NOT FEEL THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TO THE NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACROSS
CNY...WITH THE COLD FRONT SIMILARLY NEAR CNY AS WELL. THUS SYNOPTIC
SHOWERS FOR TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE RESERVED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT AS 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER
EVEN THESE 850 HPA READING OF AROUND +4C OVER THE WARM LAKE WATERS
ALONG WITH WINDS VEERING TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MAY BRING A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW
NYS. WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE MORNING HERE...WITH
DAYTIME MIXING ENDING ANY ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO BY TIME ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS GENERATE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...FEEL THAT IT WILL BE LATE ENOUGH IN THE MORNING THAT NO
ORGANIZED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.

CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND PRETTY
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FOR TOMORROW HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S. THE WARMEST AREAS IN
THE REGION...WHERE HIGHS MAY REACH INTO THE MID 60S WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE
ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE WILL PROMOTE THE GREATEST AFTERNOON WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
INITIALLY DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW
JUST OFF THE SURFACE...A COOL AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS...AND A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO TRAP A SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY MAY
REMAIN MORE CLEAR. EVEN WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
THERE MAY BE SOME SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG. ASSUMING THE CLOUD COVER
MATERIALIZES...IT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS UP A LITTLE IN AN OTHERWISE
CHILLY AIRMASS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION. IF SKIES DO REMAIN CLEAR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS MAY SEE PATCHY FROST.

ON WEDNESDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MEANWHILE A
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO ANY
MORNING STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT AND GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS OF +4C TO +6 WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS...AND LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC. THE FRONT
WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND ANY LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC ASCENT WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE MAY KEEP THESE
SPRINKLES...OR PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE GOING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FROM SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...AND
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
MORE STRATUS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THURSDAY
FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA.

STEADY COLD ADVECTION AND POST-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 50S IN MOST AREAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND. SOME STRATUS MAY STILL LINGER SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING
THE EVENING...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT LATER AT NIGHT
AND SHOULD ALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW TO BREAK DOWN AND YIELD CLEARING
SKIES. A COOL/DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND 40 ON THE LAKE
PLAINS WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE IN THE COOLER SPOTS OF THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH SOME FROST
POSSIBLE. THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. BURGEONING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL AID IN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER AFTER A
CHILLY MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS...WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

OVER THE WEEKEND A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND FORCE DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES AND WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD PUSH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES AT
LEAST INTO THE MID 70S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AIDED BY SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE LATEST 12Z GFS REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN KEEPING SATURDAY DRY...AND THE NEW
12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED STRONGLY IN THAT DIRECTION AND NOW KEEPS A
FRONTAL ZONE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
LAKES. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR MONDAY FOLLOWING THE SUNDAY COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL AND LOWERING CIGS ACROSS
THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z. MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD BE
VFR...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE
RAIN SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS EASTWARD AXIS
ALONG WITH THE NOW EASTWARD WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING AN END TO
THE RAINFALL. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ALONG WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TUESDAY
MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY.
OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 12 AND 00Z
TOMORROW WITH A GENERAL LIGHT WIND FLOW.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG WITH
LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL BRING 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES ON LAKE ERIE...AND ON LAKE
ONTARIO A LONGER FETCH TO THE LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES.
BASED ON THIS ALONG WITH WINDS NEARING 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR LAKE ONTARIO FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS/WCH
MARINE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBGM 160243
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1043 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE QUICK TO
EXIT IN THE MORNING...YET CLOUDS MAY HANG IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE BREAKING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK KEEPING THE REGION DRY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TO LINGER THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION (HIGHER POPS) OVER CENTRAL NY LONGER BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBS TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

200 PM UPDATE... PLENTY OF EARLY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH APPROACH. WAVE
CAN BE SEEN ALREADY CRUISING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT THIS EVENING VIA TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING...AS UPPER LEVELS AND FORCED ASCENT OF RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET...OUTPACE THE LOW LEVELS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON WEAK FRONT-SURFACE TROUGH THEN SWEEPING WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AREA MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM. IT IS A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO WITH
ONLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH. ALSO...THE FAIRLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO PA...WILL
SHUNT WELL EAST TO THE MIDATLANTIC COAST BY THE TIME THE TROUGH
ARRIVES...PRECLUDING ANY CHANCE OF THUNDER. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS-SPRINKLES BY DAWN WILL BE QUICK TO EXIT
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND COOL AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...SHOULD MAKE THE CLOUDS MORE
STUBBORN TO BREAK. LOSS OF DIURNAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY LATE IN
THE DAY SHOULD THEN HASTEN IT. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGHS TO
MAINLY LOW TO MID 60S FROM TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD...BUT FARTHER
SOUTH CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOONER ALLOWING THE SUN TO BRING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S-NEAR 70 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
MIDWESTERN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY NEW COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DROP OUT OF CANADA BY LATE THURSDAY. THESE TWO HIGHS WILL BE
SEPARATED BY A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SHALLOW POST-FRONTAL
MOIST LAYER COULD YIELD A FEW SPRINKLES FROM TUG HILL TO FINGER
LAKES REGION EARLY THURSDAY...OTHERWISE JUST COOL AND CLOUDY FOR
MOST OF THE NEW YORK ZONES THURSDAY /LESS SO SOUTH OF THE TWIN
TIERS IN NEPA/.

WITH THE FIRST HIGH NOT COMING OUT OF CANADA...GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT YET WITH PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL ONLY LIMITED
TO THE WESTERN CATSKILL VALLEYS IF ANYTHING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES JUST SHY OF
CLIMATOLOGY. FROST POTENTIAL MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER COME THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH DESCENDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR EXPECTED EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT AS AREA OF SHOWERS
APPROACHES EXPECTED CIGS AND POSSIBLY VSBYS TO DROP TO MVFR
RESTRICTIONS AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 03Z. AFTER BOUNDARY PASSES EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 14Z TUESDAY.

LGT/VRB WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NW BETWEEN 5-10KTS
AFTER 14Z IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 160243
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1043 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE QUICK TO
EXIT IN THE MORNING...YET CLOUDS MAY HANG IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE BREAKING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK KEEPING THE REGION DRY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TO LINGER THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION (HIGHER POPS) OVER CENTRAL NY LONGER BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBS TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

200 PM UPDATE... PLENTY OF EARLY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH APPROACH. WAVE
CAN BE SEEN ALREADY CRUISING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT THIS EVENING VIA TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING...AS UPPER LEVELS AND FORCED ASCENT OF RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET...OUTPACE THE LOW LEVELS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON WEAK FRONT-SURFACE TROUGH THEN SWEEPING WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AREA MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM. IT IS A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO WITH
ONLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH. ALSO...THE FAIRLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO PA...WILL
SHUNT WELL EAST TO THE MIDATLANTIC COAST BY THE TIME THE TROUGH
ARRIVES...PRECLUDING ANY CHANCE OF THUNDER. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS-SPRINKLES BY DAWN WILL BE QUICK TO EXIT
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND COOL AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...SHOULD MAKE THE CLOUDS MORE
STUBBORN TO BREAK. LOSS OF DIURNAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY LATE IN
THE DAY SHOULD THEN HASTEN IT. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGHS TO
MAINLY LOW TO MID 60S FROM TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD...BUT FARTHER
SOUTH CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOONER ALLOWING THE SUN TO BRING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S-NEAR 70 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
MIDWESTERN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY NEW COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DROP OUT OF CANADA BY LATE THURSDAY. THESE TWO HIGHS WILL BE
SEPARATED BY A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SHALLOW POST-FRONTAL
MOIST LAYER COULD YIELD A FEW SPRINKLES FROM TUG HILL TO FINGER
LAKES REGION EARLY THURSDAY...OTHERWISE JUST COOL AND CLOUDY FOR
MOST OF THE NEW YORK ZONES THURSDAY /LESS SO SOUTH OF THE TWIN
TIERS IN NEPA/.

WITH THE FIRST HIGH NOT COMING OUT OF CANADA...GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT YET WITH PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL ONLY LIMITED
TO THE WESTERN CATSKILL VALLEYS IF ANYTHING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES JUST SHY OF
CLIMATOLOGY. FROST POTENTIAL MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER COME THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH DESCENDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR EXPECTED EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT AS AREA OF SHOWERS
APPROACHES EXPECTED CIGS AND POSSIBLY VSBYS TO DROP TO MVFR
RESTRICTIONS AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 03Z. AFTER BOUNDARY PASSES EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 14Z TUESDAY.

LGT/VRB WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NW BETWEEN 5-10KTS
AFTER 14Z IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 160243
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1043 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE QUICK TO
EXIT IN THE MORNING...YET CLOUDS MAY HANG IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE BREAKING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK KEEPING THE REGION DRY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TO LINGER THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION (HIGHER POPS) OVER CENTRAL NY LONGER BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBS TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

200 PM UPDATE... PLENTY OF EARLY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH APPROACH. WAVE
CAN BE SEEN ALREADY CRUISING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT THIS EVENING VIA TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING...AS UPPER LEVELS AND FORCED ASCENT OF RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET...OUTPACE THE LOW LEVELS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON WEAK FRONT-SURFACE TROUGH THEN SWEEPING WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AREA MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM. IT IS A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO WITH
ONLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH. ALSO...THE FAIRLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO PA...WILL
SHUNT WELL EAST TO THE MIDATLANTIC COAST BY THE TIME THE TROUGH
ARRIVES...PRECLUDING ANY CHANCE OF THUNDER. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS-SPRINKLES BY DAWN WILL BE QUICK TO EXIT
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND COOL AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...SHOULD MAKE THE CLOUDS MORE
STUBBORN TO BREAK. LOSS OF DIURNAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY LATE IN
THE DAY SHOULD THEN HASTEN IT. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGHS TO
MAINLY LOW TO MID 60S FROM TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD...BUT FARTHER
SOUTH CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOONER ALLOWING THE SUN TO BRING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S-NEAR 70 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
MIDWESTERN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY NEW COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DROP OUT OF CANADA BY LATE THURSDAY. THESE TWO HIGHS WILL BE
SEPARATED BY A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SHALLOW POST-FRONTAL
MOIST LAYER COULD YIELD A FEW SPRINKLES FROM TUG HILL TO FINGER
LAKES REGION EARLY THURSDAY...OTHERWISE JUST COOL AND CLOUDY FOR
MOST OF THE NEW YORK ZONES THURSDAY /LESS SO SOUTH OF THE TWIN
TIERS IN NEPA/.

WITH THE FIRST HIGH NOT COMING OUT OF CANADA...GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT YET WITH PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL ONLY LIMITED
TO THE WESTERN CATSKILL VALLEYS IF ANYTHING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES JUST SHY OF
CLIMATOLOGY. FROST POTENTIAL MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER COME THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH DESCENDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR EXPECTED EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT AS AREA OF SHOWERS
APPROACHES EXPECTED CIGS AND POSSIBLY VSBYS TO DROP TO MVFR
RESTRICTIONS AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 03Z. AFTER BOUNDARY PASSES EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 14Z TUESDAY.

LGT/VRB WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NW BETWEEN 5-10KTS
AFTER 14Z IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 160243
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1043 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE QUICK TO
EXIT IN THE MORNING...YET CLOUDS MAY HANG IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE BREAKING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK KEEPING THE REGION DRY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TO LINGER THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION (HIGHER POPS) OVER CENTRAL NY LONGER BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBS TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

200 PM UPDATE... PLENTY OF EARLY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH APPROACH. WAVE
CAN BE SEEN ALREADY CRUISING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT THIS EVENING VIA TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING...AS UPPER LEVELS AND FORCED ASCENT OF RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET...OUTPACE THE LOW LEVELS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON WEAK FRONT-SURFACE TROUGH THEN SWEEPING WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AREA MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM. IT IS A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO WITH
ONLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH. ALSO...THE FAIRLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO PA...WILL
SHUNT WELL EAST TO THE MIDATLANTIC COAST BY THE TIME THE TROUGH
ARRIVES...PRECLUDING ANY CHANCE OF THUNDER. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS-SPRINKLES BY DAWN WILL BE QUICK TO EXIT
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND COOL AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...SHOULD MAKE THE CLOUDS MORE
STUBBORN TO BREAK. LOSS OF DIURNAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY LATE IN
THE DAY SHOULD THEN HASTEN IT. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGHS TO
MAINLY LOW TO MID 60S FROM TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD...BUT FARTHER
SOUTH CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOONER ALLOWING THE SUN TO BRING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S-NEAR 70 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
MIDWESTERN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY NEW COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DROP OUT OF CANADA BY LATE THURSDAY. THESE TWO HIGHS WILL BE
SEPARATED BY A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SHALLOW POST-FRONTAL
MOIST LAYER COULD YIELD A FEW SPRINKLES FROM TUG HILL TO FINGER
LAKES REGION EARLY THURSDAY...OTHERWISE JUST COOL AND CLOUDY FOR
MOST OF THE NEW YORK ZONES THURSDAY /LESS SO SOUTH OF THE TWIN
TIERS IN NEPA/.

WITH THE FIRST HIGH NOT COMING OUT OF CANADA...GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT YET WITH PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL ONLY LIMITED
TO THE WESTERN CATSKILL VALLEYS IF ANYTHING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES JUST SHY OF
CLIMATOLOGY. FROST POTENTIAL MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER COME THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH DESCENDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR EXPECTED EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT AS AREA OF SHOWERS
APPROACHES EXPECTED CIGS AND POSSIBLY VSBYS TO DROP TO MVFR
RESTRICTIONS AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 03Z. AFTER BOUNDARY PASSES EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 14Z TUESDAY.

LGT/VRB WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NW BETWEEN 5-10KTS
AFTER 14Z IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVN







000
FXUS61 KBTV 160230
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW
MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL/WRN
NY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NRN NY/WRN VT ALSO REPORTING A
BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS A TAD ON THE DRY SIDE WITH 5-10 DEG TDD
VALUES STILL NOTED ACROSS THE AREA SO ALOT OF THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY IS FALLING AS VIRGA. STILL FULLY EXPECT THAT AS PBL COOLS
AND NEARS SATURATION OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
AND HAVE LEFT AREAL POPS AND PCPN AMTS LARGELY UNCHANGED HOWEVER.
LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK...GENERALLY MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST
SPOTS UNDER LIGHT S/SW WINDS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.


SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT...SO MOSTLY VFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV. CEILINGS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO
LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD AREA-WIDE TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT (5
KNOTS OR LESS) TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI







000
FXUS61 KBTV 160230
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW
MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL/WRN
NY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NRN NY/WRN VT ALSO REPORTING A
BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS A TAD ON THE DRY SIDE WITH 5-10 DEG TDD
VALUES STILL NOTED ACROSS THE AREA SO ALOT OF THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY IS FALLING AS VIRGA. STILL FULLY EXPECT THAT AS PBL COOLS
AND NEARS SATURATION OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
AND HAVE LEFT AREAL POPS AND PCPN AMTS LARGELY UNCHANGED HOWEVER.
LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK...GENERALLY MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST
SPOTS UNDER LIGHT S/SW WINDS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.


SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT...SO MOSTLY VFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV. CEILINGS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO
LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD AREA-WIDE TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT (5
KNOTS OR LESS) TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI







000
FXUS61 KBTV 160230
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW
MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL/WRN
NY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NRN NY/WRN VT ALSO REPORTING A
BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS A TAD ON THE DRY SIDE WITH 5-10 DEG TDD
VALUES STILL NOTED ACROSS THE AREA SO ALOT OF THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY IS FALLING AS VIRGA. STILL FULLY EXPECT THAT AS PBL COOLS
AND NEARS SATURATION OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
AND HAVE LEFT AREAL POPS AND PCPN AMTS LARGELY UNCHANGED HOWEVER.
LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK...GENERALLY MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST
SPOTS UNDER LIGHT S/SW WINDS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.


SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT...SO MOSTLY VFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV. CEILINGS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO
LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD AREA-WIDE TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT (5
KNOTS OR LESS) TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI







000
FXUS61 KBTV 160230
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW
MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL/WRN
NY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NRN NY/WRN VT ALSO REPORTING A
BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS A TAD ON THE DRY SIDE WITH 5-10 DEG TDD
VALUES STILL NOTED ACROSS THE AREA SO ALOT OF THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY IS FALLING AS VIRGA. STILL FULLY EXPECT THAT AS PBL COOLS
AND NEARS SATURATION OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
AND HAVE LEFT AREAL POPS AND PCPN AMTS LARGELY UNCHANGED HOWEVER.
LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK...GENERALLY MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST
SPOTS UNDER LIGHT S/SW WINDS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.


SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT...SO MOSTLY VFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV. CEILINGS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO
LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD AREA-WIDE TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT (5
KNOTS OR LESS) TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI







000
FXUS61 KOKX 160221
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1021 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL IVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THESE WILL MOVE ACROSS AND
WEAKEN TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ADJUSTED TEMPS AS SOME LOCATIONS HAVE FALLEN OFF A BIT QUICKER
THAN FORECAST DUE TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TAKING A BIT LONGER TO
THICKEN. THIS IN ADDITION TO LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50 HAS ALLOWED FOR GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING.

CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS. THIS WILL BE
AHEAD OF A SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS WELL AS
A DIGGING SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HAVE
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE.

LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS...YIELDING A RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

POPS INCREASE LATE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 08Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WENT WITH COVERAGE
WORDING AND ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NUMEROUS NEAR NYC AND N/W
BUT MORE SCATTERED FARTHER EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING A CONSISTENT TREND OF BREAKING UP AND
LOWERING THE QPF AS THE FRONT TRACKS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE JET STREAK WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY SO THE FORCING FOR
LIFT WILL BE LOST AND THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL WEAKEN...LEAVING
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THEREAFTER
ON TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.

OVERALL CONDITIONS MAY END UP DRYING OUT EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
WIND DIRECTION IS ALSO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH LIGHT WIND
SPEEDS...SO THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LESS MOISTURE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NEAR.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WERE A BLEND OF 2/3 NAM12 AND 1/3
GMOS...ACCOUNTING FOR LOWER TEMPS DUE TO WET GROUND FROM
RAINFALL...ALLOWING FOR MORE INSOLATION TO GO INTO THE EVAPORATION
OF WATER. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAKEN
LATER TUESDAY MORNING. THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND WITH A DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECREASING
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND ADVECTING IN COOLER AIR.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WHICH YIELD A RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

THERE IS LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON TUESDAY...BUT DUE TO AN
INCREASING SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOURD...THIS COULD BE
ELEVATED TO A MODERATE RISK LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND NO
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY WITH JUST A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE TROUGH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AT NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS WED-THU NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL DROP
VALUES INTO THE 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

NAM/MOSGUIDE BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A
MOSGUIDE/WPC BLEND THEREAFTER. VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST OVERALL WITH TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES SAT-MON AS HEIGHTS RISE AHEAD
OF A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. 20/00Z ECMWF RUN WAS AN
OUTLIER IN RELATION TO PRECIP ON SATURDAY. 20/12Z HAS COME INTO LINE
WITH THE GFS/CMC LENDING TO A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WELL
TO THE WEST WILL BE APPROACHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE EAST...EXPECT PRECIP TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AHEAD THE FRONT ON SATURDAY SO EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. LIGHT S-SW FLOW
CONTINUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANY PRECIP WILL BE
LIGHT...AND EXPECTING VFR CONDS IN ANY -RA THAT DEVELOPS.

WINDS WILL BE 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE
TROUGH...WINDS VEER TO THE NW AT 6-8 KT BEFORE BACKING TO THE W-SW
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW...HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS COULD
RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 260 TO 320 MAG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE-E WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EVEN WITH INCREASING SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS
WED-SAT WITH MAINLY SUB SCA CRITERIA EXPECTED. WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW
PASSING TO THE EAST...SWELLS INCREASE WED WITH OCEAN SEAS POSSIBLY
REACHING 5 FT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS WELL...WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SEAS COULD ONCE AGAIN RISE
AGAIN TO 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THEREAFTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/LN
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...JM/DW
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JM/LN
HYDROLOGY...JM/LN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 160221
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1021 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL IVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THESE WILL MOVE ACROSS AND
WEAKEN TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ADJUSTED TEMPS AS SOME LOCATIONS HAVE FALLEN OFF A BIT QUICKER
THAN FORECAST DUE TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TAKING A BIT LONGER TO
THICKEN. THIS IN ADDITION TO LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50 HAS ALLOWED FOR GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING.

CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS. THIS WILL BE
AHEAD OF A SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS WELL AS
A DIGGING SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HAVE
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE.

LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS...YIELDING A RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

POPS INCREASE LATE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 08Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WENT WITH COVERAGE
WORDING AND ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NUMEROUS NEAR NYC AND N/W
BUT MORE SCATTERED FARTHER EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING A CONSISTENT TREND OF BREAKING UP AND
LOWERING THE QPF AS THE FRONT TRACKS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE JET STREAK WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY SO THE FORCING FOR
LIFT WILL BE LOST AND THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL WEAKEN...LEAVING
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THEREAFTER
ON TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.

OVERALL CONDITIONS MAY END UP DRYING OUT EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
WIND DIRECTION IS ALSO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH LIGHT WIND
SPEEDS...SO THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LESS MOISTURE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NEAR.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WERE A BLEND OF 2/3 NAM12 AND 1/3
GMOS...ACCOUNTING FOR LOWER TEMPS DUE TO WET GROUND FROM
RAINFALL...ALLOWING FOR MORE INSOLATION TO GO INTO THE EVAPORATION
OF WATER. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAKEN
LATER TUESDAY MORNING. THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND WITH A DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECREASING
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND ADVECTING IN COOLER AIR.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WHICH YIELD A RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

THERE IS LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON TUESDAY...BUT DUE TO AN
INCREASING SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOURD...THIS COULD BE
ELEVATED TO A MODERATE RISK LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND NO
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY WITH JUST A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE TROUGH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AT NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS WED-THU NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL DROP
VALUES INTO THE 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

NAM/MOSGUIDE BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A
MOSGUIDE/WPC BLEND THEREAFTER. VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST OVERALL WITH TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES SAT-MON AS HEIGHTS RISE AHEAD
OF A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. 20/00Z ECMWF RUN WAS AN
OUTLIER IN RELATION TO PRECIP ON SATURDAY. 20/12Z HAS COME INTO LINE
WITH THE GFS/CMC LENDING TO A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WELL
TO THE WEST WILL BE APPROACHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE EAST...EXPECT PRECIP TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AHEAD THE FRONT ON SATURDAY SO EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. LIGHT S-SW FLOW
CONTINUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANY PRECIP WILL BE
LIGHT...AND EXPECTING VFR CONDS IN ANY -RA THAT DEVELOPS.

WINDS WILL BE 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE
TROUGH...WINDS VEER TO THE NW AT 6-8 KT BEFORE BACKING TO THE W-SW
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW...HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS COULD
RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 260 TO 320 MAG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE-E WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EVEN WITH INCREASING SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS
WED-SAT WITH MAINLY SUB SCA CRITERIA EXPECTED. WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW
PASSING TO THE EAST...SWELLS INCREASE WED WITH OCEAN SEAS POSSIBLY
REACHING 5 FT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS WELL...WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SEAS COULD ONCE AGAIN RISE
AGAIN TO 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THEREAFTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/LN
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...JM/DW
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JM/LN
HYDROLOGY...JM/LN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 160221
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1021 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL IVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THESE WILL MOVE ACROSS AND
WEAKEN TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ADJUSTED TEMPS AS SOME LOCATIONS HAVE FALLEN OFF A BIT QUICKER
THAN FORECAST DUE TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TAKING A BIT LONGER TO
THICKEN. THIS IN ADDITION TO LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50 HAS ALLOWED FOR GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING.

CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS. THIS WILL BE
AHEAD OF A SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS WELL AS
A DIGGING SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HAVE
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE.

LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS...YIELDING A RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

POPS INCREASE LATE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 08Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WENT WITH COVERAGE
WORDING AND ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NUMEROUS NEAR NYC AND N/W
BUT MORE SCATTERED FARTHER EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING A CONSISTENT TREND OF BREAKING UP AND
LOWERING THE QPF AS THE FRONT TRACKS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE JET STREAK WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY SO THE FORCING FOR
LIFT WILL BE LOST AND THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL WEAKEN...LEAVING
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THEREAFTER
ON TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.

OVERALL CONDITIONS MAY END UP DRYING OUT EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
WIND DIRECTION IS ALSO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH LIGHT WIND
SPEEDS...SO THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LESS MOISTURE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NEAR.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WERE A BLEND OF 2/3 NAM12 AND 1/3
GMOS...ACCOUNTING FOR LOWER TEMPS DUE TO WET GROUND FROM
RAINFALL...ALLOWING FOR MORE INSOLATION TO GO INTO THE EVAPORATION
OF WATER. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAKEN
LATER TUESDAY MORNING. THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND WITH A DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECREASING
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND ADVECTING IN COOLER AIR.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WHICH YIELD A RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

THERE IS LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON TUESDAY...BUT DUE TO AN
INCREASING SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOURD...THIS COULD BE
ELEVATED TO A MODERATE RISK LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND NO
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY WITH JUST A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE TROUGH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AT NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS WED-THU NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL DROP
VALUES INTO THE 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

NAM/MOSGUIDE BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A
MOSGUIDE/WPC BLEND THEREAFTER. VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST OVERALL WITH TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES SAT-MON AS HEIGHTS RISE AHEAD
OF A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. 20/00Z ECMWF RUN WAS AN
OUTLIER IN RELATION TO PRECIP ON SATURDAY. 20/12Z HAS COME INTO LINE
WITH THE GFS/CMC LENDING TO A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WELL
TO THE WEST WILL BE APPROACHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE EAST...EXPECT PRECIP TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AHEAD THE FRONT ON SATURDAY SO EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. LIGHT S-SW FLOW
CONTINUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANY PRECIP WILL BE
LIGHT...AND EXPECTING VFR CONDS IN ANY -RA THAT DEVELOPS.

WINDS WILL BE 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE
TROUGH...WINDS VEER TO THE NW AT 6-8 KT BEFORE BACKING TO THE W-SW
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW...HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS COULD
RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 260 TO 320 MAG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE-E WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EVEN WITH INCREASING SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS
WED-SAT WITH MAINLY SUB SCA CRITERIA EXPECTED. WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW
PASSING TO THE EAST...SWELLS INCREASE WED WITH OCEAN SEAS POSSIBLY
REACHING 5 FT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS WELL...WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SEAS COULD ONCE AGAIN RISE
AGAIN TO 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THEREAFTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/LN
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...JM/DW
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JM/LN
HYDROLOGY...JM/LN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 160221
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1021 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL IVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THESE WILL MOVE ACROSS AND
WEAKEN TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ADJUSTED TEMPS AS SOME LOCATIONS HAVE FALLEN OFF A BIT QUICKER
THAN FORECAST DUE TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TAKING A BIT LONGER TO
THICKEN. THIS IN ADDITION TO LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50 HAS ALLOWED FOR GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING.

CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS. THIS WILL BE
AHEAD OF A SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS WELL AS
A DIGGING SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HAVE
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE.

LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS...YIELDING A RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

POPS INCREASE LATE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 08Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WENT WITH COVERAGE
WORDING AND ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NUMEROUS NEAR NYC AND N/W
BUT MORE SCATTERED FARTHER EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING A CONSISTENT TREND OF BREAKING UP AND
LOWERING THE QPF AS THE FRONT TRACKS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE JET STREAK WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY SO THE FORCING FOR
LIFT WILL BE LOST AND THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL WEAKEN...LEAVING
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THEREAFTER
ON TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.

OVERALL CONDITIONS MAY END UP DRYING OUT EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
WIND DIRECTION IS ALSO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH LIGHT WIND
SPEEDS...SO THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LESS MOISTURE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NEAR.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WERE A BLEND OF 2/3 NAM12 AND 1/3
GMOS...ACCOUNTING FOR LOWER TEMPS DUE TO WET GROUND FROM
RAINFALL...ALLOWING FOR MORE INSOLATION TO GO INTO THE EVAPORATION
OF WATER. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAKEN
LATER TUESDAY MORNING. THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND WITH A DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECREASING
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND ADVECTING IN COOLER AIR.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WHICH YIELD A RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

THERE IS LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON TUESDAY...BUT DUE TO AN
INCREASING SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOURD...THIS COULD BE
ELEVATED TO A MODERATE RISK LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND NO
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY WITH JUST A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE TROUGH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AT NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS WED-THU NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL DROP
VALUES INTO THE 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

NAM/MOSGUIDE BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A
MOSGUIDE/WPC BLEND THEREAFTER. VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST OVERALL WITH TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES SAT-MON AS HEIGHTS RISE AHEAD
OF A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. 20/00Z ECMWF RUN WAS AN
OUTLIER IN RELATION TO PRECIP ON SATURDAY. 20/12Z HAS COME INTO LINE
WITH THE GFS/CMC LENDING TO A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WELL
TO THE WEST WILL BE APPROACHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE EAST...EXPECT PRECIP TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AHEAD THE FRONT ON SATURDAY SO EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. LIGHT S-SW FLOW
CONTINUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANY PRECIP WILL BE
LIGHT...AND EXPECTING VFR CONDS IN ANY -RA THAT DEVELOPS.

WINDS WILL BE 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE
TROUGH...WINDS VEER TO THE NW AT 6-8 KT BEFORE BACKING TO THE W-SW
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW...HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS COULD
RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 260 TO 320 MAG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE-E WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EVEN WITH INCREASING SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS
WED-SAT WITH MAINLY SUB SCA CRITERIA EXPECTED. WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW
PASSING TO THE EAST...SWELLS INCREASE WED WITH OCEAN SEAS POSSIBLY
REACHING 5 FT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS WELL...WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SEAS COULD ONCE AGAIN RISE
AGAIN TO 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THEREAFTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/LN
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...JM/DW
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JM/LN
HYDROLOGY...JM/LN







000
FXUS61 KALY 160211
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1011 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A
RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES THE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1010 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED TO OUR WEST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CLOUDY SKIES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE
OVER OUR AREA...AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO ENCROACH OF
WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS. MOST OF THESE RADAR RETURNS ARE PROBABLY
NOT HITTING THE GROUND JUST YET...AS SEEN IN THE 00Z KALY
SOUNDING...THE LOWER AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RATHER DRY. EVENTUALLY...THE COLUMN WILL MOISTEN UP...AND SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD BETWEEN 2 AM AND 7 AM.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO AROUND A
THIRD OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH
ACROSS A PORTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL/COLD TONIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AS THE SHORT
WAVE...COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECTING A DRY AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA PASSING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR FROST MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ADD MENTION TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE
REGION. BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING OUR REGION AND WITH T850 AND T925
TEMPERATURES ON 15/12Z MODEL DATA BETWEEN 0C AND 4C...PATCHY FROST
MAYBE POSSIBLE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION
AS FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND EXIT THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE ATLANTIC
COAST LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BRINGING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 60S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 70S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 15/12Z GLOBAL AND PROBABILISTIC MODELS
OUTPUT NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
THE TIMING HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. SYNOPTIC PATTERNS
ALSO DIFFER WHICH DOES CHANGE THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DUE TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE VORTICITY
MAXIMA UPSTREAM OF THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSION. SOME 12Z GUIDANCE
EXHIBIT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THAT MAY
SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT POSING A MULTIPLE DAY
PRECIPITATION EVENT WHILE OTHER DATA SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HELPING THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION MUCH MORE QUICKLY. UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WILL
BE MADE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO. CIGS ARE
CURRENTLY BKN-OVC AT 15-25 KFT. HOWEVER...BKN-OVC LOWER CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS AT ABOUT 4-5 KFT AND SHOWERS LOOK
TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT...MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. WITHIN
SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR LEVELS FOR BOTH
CIGS/VSBYS...AND A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR LATE NIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KGFL LATE
TONIGHT.

ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ENDING AROUND 12Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH BKN MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE MORNING...ESP AT
KPSF...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND.
EVENTUALLY...ALL SITES LOOK TO SCT OUT BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
DOMINATES.


RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 90 TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM VALUES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH
HIGHER VALUES AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LOWER VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 160211
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1011 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A
RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES THE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1010 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED TO OUR WEST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CLOUDY SKIES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE
OVER OUR AREA...AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO ENCROACH OF
WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS. MOST OF THESE RADAR RETURNS ARE PROBABLY
NOT HITTING THE GROUND JUST YET...AS SEEN IN THE 00Z KALY
SOUNDING...THE LOWER AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RATHER DRY. EVENTUALLY...THE COLUMN WILL MOISTEN UP...AND SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD BETWEEN 2 AM AND 7 AM.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO AROUND A
THIRD OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH
ACROSS A PORTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL/COLD TONIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AS THE SHORT
WAVE...COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECTING A DRY AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA PASSING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR FROST MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ADD MENTION TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE
REGION. BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING OUR REGION AND WITH T850 AND T925
TEMPERATURES ON 15/12Z MODEL DATA BETWEEN 0C AND 4C...PATCHY FROST
MAYBE POSSIBLE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION
AS FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND EXIT THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE ATLANTIC
COAST LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BRINGING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 60S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 70S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 15/12Z GLOBAL AND PROBABILISTIC MODELS
OUTPUT NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
THE TIMING HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. SYNOPTIC PATTERNS
ALSO DIFFER WHICH DOES CHANGE THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DUE TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE VORTICITY
MAXIMA UPSTREAM OF THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSION. SOME 12Z GUIDANCE
EXHIBIT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THAT MAY
SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT POSING A MULTIPLE DAY
PRECIPITATION EVENT WHILE OTHER DATA SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HELPING THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION MUCH MORE QUICKLY. UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WILL
BE MADE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO. CIGS ARE
CURRENTLY BKN-OVC AT 15-25 KFT. HOWEVER...BKN-OVC LOWER CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS AT ABOUT 4-5 KFT AND SHOWERS LOOK
TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT...MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. WITHIN
SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR LEVELS FOR BOTH
CIGS/VSBYS...AND A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR LATE NIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KGFL LATE
TONIGHT.

ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ENDING AROUND 12Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH BKN MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE MORNING...ESP AT
KPSF...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND.
EVENTUALLY...ALL SITES LOOK TO SCT OUT BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
DOMINATES.


RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 90 TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM VALUES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH
HIGHER VALUES AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LOWER VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KBUF 160010
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
810 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS RAIN WILL COME TO
AN END EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT BRINGS CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT..AND LIFT AHEAD OF
THE FEATURE COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY REMAINS
TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND DO NOT FEEL THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TO THE NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONIGHT. RAINFALL LOOKS
TO RANGE BETWEEN A TENTH AND A THIRD OF AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH A FEW AREAS NEAR THE STATE LINE UNDER MINIMAL INSTABILITY
POSSIBLY NEARING HALF AN INCH.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACROSS
CNY...WITH THE COLD FRONT SIMILARLY NEAR CNY AS WELL. THUS SYNOPTIC
SHOWERS FOR TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE RESERVED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT AS 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER
EVEN THESE 850 HPA READING OF AROUND +4C OVER THE WARM LAKE WATERS
ALONG WITH WINDS VEERING TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MAY BRING A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW
NYS. WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE MORNING HERE...WITH
DAYTIME MIXING ENDING ANY ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO BY TIME ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS GENERATE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...FEEL THAT IT WILL BE LATE ENOUGH IN THE MORNING THAT NO
ORGANIZED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.

CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND PRETTY
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FOR TOMORROW HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S. THE WARMEST AREAS IN
THE REGION...WHERE HIGHS MAY REACH INTO THE MID 60S WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE
ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE WILL PROMOTE THE GREATEST AFTERNOON WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
INITIALLY DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW
JUST OFF THE SURFACE...A COOL AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS...AND A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO TRAP A SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY MAY
REMAIN MORE CLEAR. EVEN WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
THERE MAY BE SOME SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG. ASSUMING THE CLOUD COVER
MATERIALIZES...IT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS UP A LITTLE IN AN OTHERWISE
CHILLY AIRMASS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION. IF SKIES DO REMAIN CLEAR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS MAY SEE PATCHY FROST.

ON WEDNESDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MEANWHILE A
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO ANY
MORNING STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT AND GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS OF +4C TO +6 WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS...AND LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC. THE FRONT
WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND ANY LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC ASCENT WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE MAY KEEP THESE
SPRINKLES...OR PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE GOING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FROM SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...AND
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
MORE STRATUS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THURSDAY
FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA.

STEADY COLD ADVECTION AND POST-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 50S IN MOST AREAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND. SOME STRATUS MAY STILL LINGER SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING
THE EVENING...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT LATER AT NIGHT
AND SHOULD ALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW TO BREAK DOWN AND YIELD CLEARING
SKIES. A COOL/DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND 40 ON THE LAKE
PLAINS WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE IN THE COOLER SPOTS OF THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH SOME FROST
POSSIBLE. THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. BURGEONING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL AID IN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER AFTER A
CHILLY MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS...WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

OVER THE WEEKEND A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND FORCE DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES AND WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD PUSH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES AT
LEAST INTO THE MID 70S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AIDED BY SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE LATEST 12Z GFS REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN KEEPING SATURDAY DRY...AND THE NEW
12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED STRONGLY IN THAT DIRECTION AND NOW KEEPS A
FRONTAL ZONE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
LAKES. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR MONDAY FOLLOWING THE SUNDAY COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD
LIGHT RAINFALL AND LOWERING CIGS ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND
12Z. MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD BE VFR...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE RAIN SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY THE AXIS
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES. THIS EASTWARD AXIS ALONG WITH THE NOW EASTWARD WEAK COLD
FRONT SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE RAINFALL. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ALONG
WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS VEER AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY. OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 12 AND 00Z TOMORROW WITH A GENERAL LIGHT WIND
FLOW.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG WITH
LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL BRING 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES ON LAKE ERIE...AND ON LAKE
ONTARIO A LONGER FETCH TO THE LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES.
BASED ON THIS ALONG WITH WINDS NEARING 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR LAKE ONTARIO FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS/WCH
MARINE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 160010
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
810 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS RAIN WILL COME TO
AN END EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT BRINGS CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT..AND LIFT AHEAD OF
THE FEATURE COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY REMAINS
TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND DO NOT FEEL THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TO THE NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONIGHT. RAINFALL LOOKS
TO RANGE BETWEEN A TENTH AND A THIRD OF AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH A FEW AREAS NEAR THE STATE LINE UNDER MINIMAL INSTABILITY
POSSIBLY NEARING HALF AN INCH.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACROSS
CNY...WITH THE COLD FRONT SIMILARLY NEAR CNY AS WELL. THUS SYNOPTIC
SHOWERS FOR TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE RESERVED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT AS 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER
EVEN THESE 850 HPA READING OF AROUND +4C OVER THE WARM LAKE WATERS
ALONG WITH WINDS VEERING TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MAY BRING A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW
NYS. WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE MORNING HERE...WITH
DAYTIME MIXING ENDING ANY ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO BY TIME ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS GENERATE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...FEEL THAT IT WILL BE LATE ENOUGH IN THE MORNING THAT NO
ORGANIZED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.

CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND PRETTY
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FOR TOMORROW HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S. THE WARMEST AREAS IN
THE REGION...WHERE HIGHS MAY REACH INTO THE MID 60S WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE
ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE WILL PROMOTE THE GREATEST AFTERNOON WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
INITIALLY DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW
JUST OFF THE SURFACE...A COOL AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS...AND A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO TRAP A SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY MAY
REMAIN MORE CLEAR. EVEN WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
THERE MAY BE SOME SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG. ASSUMING THE CLOUD COVER
MATERIALIZES...IT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS UP A LITTLE IN AN OTHERWISE
CHILLY AIRMASS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION. IF SKIES DO REMAIN CLEAR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS MAY SEE PATCHY FROST.

ON WEDNESDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MEANWHILE A
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO ANY
MORNING STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT AND GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS OF +4C TO +6 WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS...AND LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC. THE FRONT
WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND ANY LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC ASCENT WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE MAY KEEP THESE
SPRINKLES...OR PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE GOING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FROM SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...AND
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
MORE STRATUS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THURSDAY
FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA.

STEADY COLD ADVECTION AND POST-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 50S IN MOST AREAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND. SOME STRATUS MAY STILL LINGER SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING
THE EVENING...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT LATER AT NIGHT
AND SHOULD ALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW TO BREAK DOWN AND YIELD CLEARING
SKIES. A COOL/DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND 40 ON THE LAKE
PLAINS WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE IN THE COOLER SPOTS OF THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH SOME FROST
POSSIBLE. THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. BURGEONING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL AID IN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER AFTER A
CHILLY MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS...WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

OVER THE WEEKEND A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND FORCE DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES AND WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD PUSH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES AT
LEAST INTO THE MID 70S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AIDED BY SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE LATEST 12Z GFS REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN KEEPING SATURDAY DRY...AND THE NEW
12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED STRONGLY IN THAT DIRECTION AND NOW KEEPS A
FRONTAL ZONE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
LAKES. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR MONDAY FOLLOWING THE SUNDAY COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD
LIGHT RAINFALL AND LOWERING CIGS ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND
12Z. MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD BE VFR...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS
AND CIGS ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE RAIN SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY THE AXIS
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES. THIS EASTWARD AXIS ALONG WITH THE NOW EASTWARD WEAK COLD
FRONT SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE RAINFALL. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ALONG
WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS VEER AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY. OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 12 AND 00Z TOMORROW WITH A GENERAL LIGHT WIND
FLOW.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG WITH
LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL BRING 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES ON LAKE ERIE...AND ON LAKE
ONTARIO A LONGER FETCH TO THE LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES.
BASED ON THIS ALONG WITH WINDS NEARING 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR LAKE ONTARIO FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS/WCH
MARINE...THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 152347
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
747 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL IVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THESE WILL MOVE ACROSS AND
WEAKEN TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS...EVENTUALLY
LOWERING AND THICKENING LATE. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS WELL AS A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HAVE AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE.

MUCH OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND WITH THE PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO START...RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL BE EFFECTIVE. LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS...YIELDING A
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

POPS INCREASE LATE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 08Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WENT WITH COVERAGE
WORDING AND ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NUMEROUS NEAR NYC AND N/W
BUT MORE SCATTERED FARTHER EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING A CONSISTENT TREND OF BREAKING UP AND
LOWERING THE QPF AS THE FRONT TRACKS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE JET STREAK WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY SO THE FORCING FOR
LIFT WILL BE LOST AND THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL WEAKEN...LEAVING
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THEREAFTER
ON TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.

OVERALL CONDITIONS MAY END UP DRYING OUT EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
WIND DIRECTION IS ALSO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH LIGHT WIND
SPEEDS...SO THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LESS MOISTURE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NEAR.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WERE A BLEND OF 2/3 NAM12 AND 1/3
GMOS...ACCOUNTING FOR LOWER TEMPS DUE TO WET GROUND FROM
RAINFALL...ALLOWING FOR MORE INSOLATION TO GO INTO THE EVAPORATION
OF WATER. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAKEN
LATER TUESDAY MORNING. THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND WITH A DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECREASING
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND ADVECTING IN COOLER AIR.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WHICH YIELD A RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

THERE IS LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON TUESDAY...BUT DUE TO AN
INCREASING SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOURD...THIS COULD BE
ELEVATED TO A MODERATE RISK LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND NO
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY WITH JUST A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE TROUGH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AT NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS WED-THU NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL DROP
VALUES INTO THE 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

NAM/MOSGUIDE BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A
MOSGUIDE/WPC BLEND THEREAFTER. VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST OVERALL WITH TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES SAT-MON AS HEIGHTS RISE AHEAD
OF A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. 20/00Z ECMWF RUN WAS AN
OUTLIER IN RELATION TO PRECIP ON SATURDAY. 20/12Z HAS COME INTO LINE
WITH THE GFS/CMC LENDING TO A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WELL
TO THE WEST WILL BE APPROACHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE EAST...EXPECT PRECIP TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AHEAD THE FRONT ON SATURDAY SO EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANY
PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT...AND EXPECTING VFR CONDS IN ANY -RA THAT
DEVELOPS.

WINDS WILL BE 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE
TROUGH...WINDS VEER TO THE NW AT 6-8 KT BEFORE BACKING TO THE W-SW
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LIGHT FLOW...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON WIND DIRECTION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS COULD RANGE
ANYWHERE FROM 260 TO 320 MAG.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST AFTER
15Z TUESDAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST AFTER
15Z TUESDAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST AFTER
15Z TUESDAY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST AFTER
15Z TUESDAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST AFTER
15Z TUESDAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST AFTER
16Z TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE-E WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EVEN WITH INCREASING SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS
WED-SAT WITH MAINLY SUB SCA CRITERIA EXPECTED. WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW
PASSING TO THE EAST...SWELLS INCREASE WED WITH OCEAN SEAS POSSIBLY
REACHING 5 FT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS WELL...WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SEAS COULD ONCE AGAIN RISE
AGAIN TO 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THEREAFTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/LN
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JM/LN
HYDROLOGY...JM/LN











000
FXUS61 KOKX 152347
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
747 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL IVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THESE WILL MOVE ACROSS AND
WEAKEN TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS...EVENTUALLY
LOWERING AND THICKENING LATE. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS WELL AS A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HAVE AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE.

MUCH OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND WITH THE PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO START...RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL BE EFFECTIVE. LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS...YIELDING A
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

POPS INCREASE LATE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 08Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WENT WITH COVERAGE
WORDING AND ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NUMEROUS NEAR NYC AND N/W
BUT MORE SCATTERED FARTHER EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING A CONSISTENT TREND OF BREAKING UP AND
LOWERING THE QPF AS THE FRONT TRACKS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE JET STREAK WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY SO THE FORCING FOR
LIFT WILL BE LOST AND THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL WEAKEN...LEAVING
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THEREAFTER
ON TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.

OVERALL CONDITIONS MAY END UP DRYING OUT EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
WIND DIRECTION IS ALSO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH LIGHT WIND
SPEEDS...SO THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LESS MOISTURE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NEAR.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WERE A BLEND OF 2/3 NAM12 AND 1/3
GMOS...ACCOUNTING FOR LOWER TEMPS DUE TO WET GROUND FROM
RAINFALL...ALLOWING FOR MORE INSOLATION TO GO INTO THE EVAPORATION
OF WATER. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAKEN
LATER TUESDAY MORNING. THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND WITH A DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECREASING
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND ADVECTING IN COOLER AIR.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WHICH YIELD A RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

THERE IS LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON TUESDAY...BUT DUE TO AN
INCREASING SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOURD...THIS COULD BE
ELEVATED TO A MODERATE RISK LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND NO
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY WITH JUST A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE TROUGH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AT NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS WED-THU NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL DROP
VALUES INTO THE 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

NAM/MOSGUIDE BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A
MOSGUIDE/WPC BLEND THEREAFTER. VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST OVERALL WITH TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES SAT-MON AS HEIGHTS RISE AHEAD
OF A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. 20/00Z ECMWF RUN WAS AN
OUTLIER IN RELATION TO PRECIP ON SATURDAY. 20/12Z HAS COME INTO LINE
WITH THE GFS/CMC LENDING TO A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WELL
TO THE WEST WILL BE APPROACHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE EAST...EXPECT PRECIP TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AHEAD THE FRONT ON SATURDAY SO EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANY
PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT...AND EXPECTING VFR CONDS IN ANY -RA THAT
DEVELOPS.

WINDS WILL BE 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE
TROUGH...WINDS VEER TO THE NW AT 6-8 KT BEFORE BACKING TO THE W-SW
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LIGHT FLOW...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON WIND DIRECTION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS COULD RANGE
ANYWHERE FROM 260 TO 320 MAG.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST AFTER
15Z TUESDAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST AFTER
15Z TUESDAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST AFTER
15Z TUESDAY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST AFTER
15Z TUESDAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST AFTER
15Z TUESDAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST AFTER
16Z TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE-E WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EVEN WITH INCREASING SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS
WED-SAT WITH MAINLY SUB SCA CRITERIA EXPECTED. WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW
PASSING TO THE EAST...SWELLS INCREASE WED WITH OCEAN SEAS POSSIBLY
REACHING 5 FT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS WELL...WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SEAS COULD ONCE AGAIN RISE
AGAIN TO 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THEREAFTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/LN
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JM/LN
HYDROLOGY...JM/LN










000
FXUS61 KBGM 152341
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
741 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE QUICK TO
EXIT IN THE MORNING...YET CLOUDS MAY HANG IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE BREAKING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK KEEPING THE REGION DRY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
PLENTY OF EARLY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH APPROACH. WAVE CAN BE SEEN ALREADY
CRUISING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON WATER VAPOR
LOOP IMAGERY. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT THIS EVENING VIA TOP-DOWN MOISTENING...AS UPPER LEVELS AND
FORCED ASCENT OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET...OUTPACE THE LOW
LEVELS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WEAK FRONT-SURFACE TROUGH THEN
SWEEPING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM. IT IS A
HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF
AN INCH. ALSO...THE FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOW ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY TO PA...WILL SHUNT WELL EAST TO THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST BY THE TIME THE TROUGH ARRIVES...PRECLUDING ANY CHANCE OF
THUNDER. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS-SPRINKLES BY DAWN WILL BE QUICK TO EXIT
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND COOL AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...SHOULD MAKE THE CLOUDS MORE
STUBBORN TO BREAK. LOSS OF DIURNAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY LATE IN
THE DAY SHOULD THEN HASTEN IT. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGHS TO
MAINLY LOW TO MID 60S FROM TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD...BUT FARTHER
SOUTH CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOONER ALLOWING THE SUN TO BRING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S-NEAR 70 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
MIDWESTERN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY NEW COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DROP OUT OF CANADA BY LATE THURSDAY. THESE TWO HIGHS WILL BE
SEPARATED BY A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SHALLOW POST-FRONTAL
MOIST LAYER COULD YIELD A FEW SPRINKLES FROM TUG HILL TO FINGER
LAKES REGION EARLY THURSDAY...OTHERWISE JUST COOL AND CLOUDY FOR
MOST OF THE NEW YORK ZONES THURSDAY /LESS SO SOUTH OF THE TWIN
TIERS IN NEPA/.

WITH THE FIRST HIGH NOT COMING OUT OF CANADA...GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT YET WITH PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL ONLY LIMITED
TO THE WESTERN CATSKILL VALLEYS IF ANYTHING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES JUST SHY OF
CLIMATOLOGY. FROST POTENTIAL MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER COME THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH DESCENDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR EXPECTED EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT AS AREA OF SHOWERS
APPROACHES EXPECTED CIGS AND POSSIBLY VSBYS TO DROP TO MVFR
RESTRICTIONS AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 03Z. AFTER BOUNDARY PASSES EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 14Z TUESDAY.

LGT/VRB WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NW BETWEEN 5-10KTS
AFTER 14Z IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 152341
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
741 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE QUICK TO
EXIT IN THE MORNING...YET CLOUDS MAY HANG IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE BREAKING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK KEEPING THE REGION DRY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
PLENTY OF EARLY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH APPROACH. WAVE CAN BE SEEN ALREADY
CRUISING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON WATER VAPOR
LOOP IMAGERY. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT THIS EVENING VIA TOP-DOWN MOISTENING...AS UPPER LEVELS AND
FORCED ASCENT OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET...OUTPACE THE LOW
LEVELS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WEAK FRONT-SURFACE TROUGH THEN
SWEEPING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM. IT IS A
HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF
AN INCH. ALSO...THE FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOW ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY TO PA...WILL SHUNT WELL EAST TO THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST BY THE TIME THE TROUGH ARRIVES...PRECLUDING ANY CHANCE OF
THUNDER. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS-SPRINKLES BY DAWN WILL BE QUICK TO EXIT
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND COOL AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...SHOULD MAKE THE CLOUDS MORE
STUBBORN TO BREAK. LOSS OF DIURNAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY LATE IN
THE DAY SHOULD THEN HASTEN IT. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGHS TO
MAINLY LOW TO MID 60S FROM TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD...BUT FARTHER
SOUTH CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOONER ALLOWING THE SUN TO BRING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S-NEAR 70 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
MIDWESTERN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY NEW COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DROP OUT OF CANADA BY LATE THURSDAY. THESE TWO HIGHS WILL BE
SEPARATED BY A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SHALLOW POST-FRONTAL
MOIST LAYER COULD YIELD A FEW SPRINKLES FROM TUG HILL TO FINGER
LAKES REGION EARLY THURSDAY...OTHERWISE JUST COOL AND CLOUDY FOR
MOST OF THE NEW YORK ZONES THURSDAY /LESS SO SOUTH OF THE TWIN
TIERS IN NEPA/.

WITH THE FIRST HIGH NOT COMING OUT OF CANADA...GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT YET WITH PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL ONLY LIMITED
TO THE WESTERN CATSKILL VALLEYS IF ANYTHING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES JUST SHY OF
CLIMATOLOGY. FROST POTENTIAL MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER COME THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH DESCENDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR EXPECTED EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT AS AREA OF SHOWERS
APPROACHES EXPECTED CIGS AND POSSIBLY VSBYS TO DROP TO MVFR
RESTRICTIONS AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 03Z. AFTER BOUNDARY PASSES EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 14Z TUESDAY.

LGT/VRB WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NW BETWEEN 5-10KTS
AFTER 14Z IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVN







000
FXUS61 KBTV 152336
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 721 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF 700
PM. DID OPT TO ADJUST SKY COVER SLIGHTLY BASED OFF CURRENT
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...AND INCORPORATED LATESET BLENDED
18Z QPF GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT`S EVENT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST TOTAL
PCPN AMOUNTS JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS...BUT
OVERALL CHANGES REALLY UNMEANINGFUL IN THE LARGER SCOPE OF THINGS.
STILL LOOKING AT A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARRIVING LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE REGION. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE
A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AT 19Z WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY. WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15" TO 0.30"
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS THAN LAST NIGHT...AND PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 50F AT BTV/MSS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 10MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. GUSTINESS SHOULD
DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL 5-10 MPH S-SW WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.


SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT...SO MOSTLY VFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV. CEILINGS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO
LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD AREA-WIDE TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT (5
KNOTS OR LESS) TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 152336
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 721 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF 700
PM. DID OPT TO ADJUST SKY COVER SLIGHTLY BASED OFF CURRENT
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...AND INCORPORATED LATESET BLENDED
18Z QPF GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT`S EVENT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST TOTAL
PCPN AMOUNTS JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS...BUT
OVERALL CHANGES REALLY UNMEANINGFUL IN THE LARGER SCOPE OF THINGS.
STILL LOOKING AT A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARRIVING LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE REGION. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE
A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AT 19Z WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY. WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15" TO 0.30"
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS THAN LAST NIGHT...AND PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 50F AT BTV/MSS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 10MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. GUSTINESS SHOULD
DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL 5-10 MPH S-SW WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.


SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT...SO MOSTLY VFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV. CEILINGS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO
LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD AREA-WIDE TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT (5
KNOTS OR LESS) TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 152336
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 721 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF 700
PM. DID OPT TO ADJUST SKY COVER SLIGHTLY BASED OFF CURRENT
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...AND INCORPORATED LATESET BLENDED
18Z QPF GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT`S EVENT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST TOTAL
PCPN AMOUNTS JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS...BUT
OVERALL CHANGES REALLY UNMEANINGFUL IN THE LARGER SCOPE OF THINGS.
STILL LOOKING AT A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARRIVING LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE REGION. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE
A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AT 19Z WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY. WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15" TO 0.30"
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS THAN LAST NIGHT...AND PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 50F AT BTV/MSS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 10MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. GUSTINESS SHOULD
DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL 5-10 MPH S-SW WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.


SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT...SO MOSTLY VFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV. CEILINGS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO
LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD AREA-WIDE TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT (5
KNOTS OR LESS) TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 152336
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 721 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF 700
PM. DID OPT TO ADJUST SKY COVER SLIGHTLY BASED OFF CURRENT
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...AND INCORPORATED LATESET BLENDED
18Z QPF GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT`S EVENT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST TOTAL
PCPN AMOUNTS JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS...BUT
OVERALL CHANGES REALLY UNMEANINGFUL IN THE LARGER SCOPE OF THINGS.
STILL LOOKING AT A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARRIVING LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE REGION. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE
A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AT 19Z WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY. WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15" TO 0.30"
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS THAN LAST NIGHT...AND PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 50F AT BTV/MSS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 10MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. GUSTINESS SHOULD
DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL 5-10 MPH S-SW WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.


SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT...SO MOSTLY VFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV. CEILINGS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO
LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD AREA-WIDE TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT (5
KNOTS OR LESS) TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KALY 152334
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
734 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND DOMINATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 734 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE HAS DEPARTED OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE STREAMED INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS SITUATED TO OUR WEST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WILL BE DRY...SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
7 AM. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STARTED OUT RATHER DRY AND NEEDS TIME TO
MOISTEN UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO
AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO A
HALF INCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL/COLD TONIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AS THE SHORT
WAVE...COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECTING A DRY AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA PASSING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR FROST MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ADD MENTION TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE
REGION. BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING OUR REGION AND WITH T850 AND T925
TEMPERATURES ON 15/12Z MODEL DATA BETWEEN 0C AND 4C...PATCHY FROST
MAYBE POSSIBLE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION
AS FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND EXIT THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE ATLANTIC
COAST LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BRINGING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 60S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 70S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 15/12Z GLOBAL AND PROBABILISTIC MODELS
OUTPUT NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
THE TIMING HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. SYNOPTIC PATTERNS
ALSO DIFFER WHICH DOES CHANGE THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DUE TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE VORTICITY
MAXIMA UPSTREAM OF THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSION. SOME 12Z GUIDANCE
EXHIBIT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THAT MAY
SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT POSING A MULTIPLE DAY
PRECIPITATION EVENT WHILE OTHER DATA SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HELPING THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION MUCH MORE QUICKLY. UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WILL
BE MADE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO. CIGS ARE
CURRENTLY BKN-OVC AT 15-25 KFT. HOWEVER...BKN-OVC LOWER CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS AT ABOUT 4-5 KFT AND SHOWERS LOOK
TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT...MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. WITHIN
SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR LEVELS FOR BOTH
CIGS/VSBYS...AND A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR LATE NIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KGFL LATE
TONIGHT.

ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ENDING AROUND 12Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH BKN MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE MORNING...ESP AT
KPSF...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND.
EVENTUALLY...ALL SITES LOOK TO SCT OUT BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
DOMINATES.


RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 90 TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM VALUES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH
HIGHER VALUES AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LOWER VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KBTV 152321
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 721 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF 700
PM. DID OPT TO ADJUST SKY COVER SLIGHTLY BASED OFF CURRENT
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...AND INCORPORATED LATESET BLENDED
18Z QPF GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT`S EVENT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST TOTAL
PCPN AMOUNTS JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS...BUT
OVERALL CHANGES REALLY UNMEANINGFUL IN THE LARGER SCOPE OF THINGS.
STILL LOOKING AT A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARRIVING LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE REGION. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE
A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AT 19Z WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY. WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15" TO 0.30"
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS THAN LAST NIGHT...AND PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 50F AT BTV/MSS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 10MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. GUSTINESS SHOULD
DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL 5-10 MPH S-SW WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.


SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREA WIDE AT THE MOMENT. THIS WILL
LAST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING, THE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY IN THE 01-04Z
TIMEFRAME, SPREADING EAST INTO VERMONT BETWEEN 04-06Z. WITH THE
SHOWERS, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND ULTIMATELY FALL INTO
MVFR CATEGORIES. IN GENERAL THE RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, SO
NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY, BUT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
ALSO MIX IN AT SLK AND MPV, SO MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE ONCE AGAIN IFR TO LIFR FOR
MPV AND SLK, BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS END
PRIOR TO 12Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND BY 15Z IN VERMONT. CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY VERY WELL HANG ON IN
MANY AREAS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 152321
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 721 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF 700
PM. DID OPT TO ADJUST SKY COVER SLIGHTLY BASED OFF CURRENT
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...AND INCORPORATED LATESET BLENDED
18Z QPF GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT`S EVENT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST TOTAL
PCPN AMOUNTS JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS...BUT
OVERALL CHANGES REALLY UNMEANINGFUL IN THE LARGER SCOPE OF THINGS.
STILL LOOKING AT A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARRIVING LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE REGION. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE
A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AT 19Z WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY. WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15" TO 0.30"
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS THAN LAST NIGHT...AND PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 50F AT BTV/MSS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 10MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. GUSTINESS SHOULD
DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL 5-10 MPH S-SW WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.


SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREA WIDE AT THE MOMENT. THIS WILL
LAST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING, THE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY IN THE 01-04Z
TIMEFRAME, SPREADING EAST INTO VERMONT BETWEEN 04-06Z. WITH THE
SHOWERS, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND ULTIMATELY FALL INTO
MVFR CATEGORIES. IN GENERAL THE RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, SO
NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY, BUT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
ALSO MIX IN AT SLK AND MPV, SO MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE ONCE AGAIN IFR TO LIFR FOR
MPV AND SLK, BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS END
PRIOR TO 12Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND BY 15Z IN VERMONT. CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY VERY WELL HANG ON IN
MANY AREAS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 152321
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 721 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF 700
PM. DID OPT TO ADJUST SKY COVER SLIGHTLY BASED OFF CURRENT
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...AND INCORPORATED LATESET BLENDED
18Z QPF GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT`S EVENT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST TOTAL
PCPN AMOUNTS JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS...BUT
OVERALL CHANGES REALLY UNMEANINGFUL IN THE LARGER SCOPE OF THINGS.
STILL LOOKING AT A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARRIVING LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE REGION. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE
A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AT 19Z WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY. WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15" TO 0.30"
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS THAN LAST NIGHT...AND PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 50F AT BTV/MSS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 10MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. GUSTINESS SHOULD
DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL 5-10 MPH S-SW WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.


SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREA WIDE AT THE MOMENT. THIS WILL
LAST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING, THE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY IN THE 01-04Z
TIMEFRAME, SPREADING EAST INTO VERMONT BETWEEN 04-06Z. WITH THE
SHOWERS, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND ULTIMATELY FALL INTO
MVFR CATEGORIES. IN GENERAL THE RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, SO
NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY, BUT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
ALSO MIX IN AT SLK AND MPV, SO MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE ONCE AGAIN IFR TO LIFR FOR
MPV AND SLK, BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS END
PRIOR TO 12Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND BY 15Z IN VERMONT. CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY VERY WELL HANG ON IN
MANY AREAS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 152321
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 721 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF 700
PM. DID OPT TO ADJUST SKY COVER SLIGHTLY BASED OFF CURRENT
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...AND INCORPORATED LATESET BLENDED
18Z QPF GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT`S EVENT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST TOTAL
PCPN AMOUNTS JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS...BUT
OVERALL CHANGES REALLY UNMEANINGFUL IN THE LARGER SCOPE OF THINGS.
STILL LOOKING AT A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARRIVING LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE REGION. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE
A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AT 19Z WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY. WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15" TO 0.30"
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS THAN LAST NIGHT...AND PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 50F AT BTV/MSS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 10MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. GUSTINESS SHOULD
DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL 5-10 MPH S-SW WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.


SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREA WIDE AT THE MOMENT. THIS WILL
LAST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING, THE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY IN THE 01-04Z
TIMEFRAME, SPREADING EAST INTO VERMONT BETWEEN 04-06Z. WITH THE
SHOWERS, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND ULTIMATELY FALL INTO
MVFR CATEGORIES. IN GENERAL THE RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, SO
NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY, BUT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
ALSO MIX IN AT SLK AND MPV, SO MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE ONCE AGAIN IFR TO LIFR FOR
MPV AND SLK, BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS END
PRIOR TO 12Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND BY 15Z IN VERMONT. CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY VERY WELL HANG ON IN
MANY AREAS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH






000
FXUS61 KALY 152046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND DOMINATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL DIG THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION AND WILL PASS
OVERHEAD AROUND 12Z/TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SWING THROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSING TO OUR
SOUTH. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE
AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 7 AM. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STARTED OUT RATHER DRY AND
NEEDS TIME TO MOISTEN UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH
POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL/COLD TONIGHT AS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AS THE SHORT
WAVE...COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECTING A DRY AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA PASSING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR FROST MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ADD MENTION TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE
REGION. BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING OUR REGION AND WITH T850 AND T925
TEMPERATURES ON 15/12Z MODEL DATA BETWEEN 0C AND 4C...PATCHY FROST
MAYBE POSSIBLE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION
AS FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND EXIT THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE ATLANTIC
COAST LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BRINGING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 60S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 70S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 15/12Z GLOBAL AND PROBABILISTIC MODELS
OUTPUT NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
THE TIMING HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. SYNOPTIC PATTERNS
ALSO DIFFER WHICH DOES CHANGE THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DUE TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE VORITICTY
MAXIMA UPSTREAM OF THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSION. SOME 12Z GUIDANCE
EXHIBIT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THAT MAY
SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT POSING A MULTIPLE DAY
PRECIPITATION EVENT WHILE OTHER DATA SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HELPING THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION MUCH MORE QUICKLY. UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WILL
BE MADE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS AND FOG TO THE TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT 12Z TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST LATER TUESDAY MORNING AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
DOMINATES.


RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 90 TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM VALUES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH
HIGHER VALUES AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LOWER VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 152046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND DOMINATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL DIG THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION AND WILL PASS
OVERHEAD AROUND 12Z/TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SWING THROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSING TO OUR
SOUTH. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE
AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 7 AM. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STARTED OUT RATHER DRY AND
NEEDS TIME TO MOISTEN UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH
POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL/COLD TONIGHT AS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AS THE SHORT
WAVE...COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECTING A DRY AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA PASSING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR FROST MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ADD MENTION TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE
REGION. BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING OUR REGION AND WITH T850 AND T925
TEMPERATURES ON 15/12Z MODEL DATA BETWEEN 0C AND 4C...PATCHY FROST
MAYBE POSSIBLE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION
AS FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND EXIT THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE ATLANTIC
COAST LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BRINGING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 60S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 70S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 15/12Z GLOBAL AND PROBABILISTIC MODELS
OUTPUT NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
THE TIMING HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. SYNOPTIC PATTERNS
ALSO DIFFER WHICH DOES CHANGE THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DUE TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE VORITICTY
MAXIMA UPSTREAM OF THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSION. SOME 12Z GUIDANCE
EXHIBIT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THAT MAY
SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT POSING A MULTIPLE DAY
PRECIPITATION EVENT WHILE OTHER DATA SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HELPING THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION MUCH MORE QUICKLY. UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WILL
BE MADE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS AND FOG TO THE TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT 12Z TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST LATER TUESDAY MORNING AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
DOMINATES.


RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 90 TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM VALUES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH
HIGHER VALUES AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LOWER VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 152046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND DOMINATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL DIG THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION AND WILL PASS
OVERHEAD AROUND 12Z/TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SWING THROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSING TO OUR
SOUTH. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE
AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 7 AM. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STARTED OUT RATHER DRY AND
NEEDS TIME TO MOISTEN UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH
POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL/COLD TONIGHT AS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AS THE SHORT
WAVE...COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECTING A DRY AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA PASSING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR FROST MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ADD MENTION TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE
REGION. BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING OUR REGION AND WITH T850 AND T925
TEMPERATURES ON 15/12Z MODEL DATA BETWEEN 0C AND 4C...PATCHY FROST
MAYBE POSSIBLE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION
AS FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND EXIT THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE ATLANTIC
COAST LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BRINGING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 60S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 70S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 15/12Z GLOBAL AND PROBABILISTIC MODELS
OUTPUT NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
THE TIMING HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. SYNOPTIC PATTERNS
ALSO DIFFER WHICH DOES CHANGE THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DUE TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE VORITICTY
MAXIMA UPSTREAM OF THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSION. SOME 12Z GUIDANCE
EXHIBIT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THAT MAY
SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT POSING A MULTIPLE DAY
PRECIPITATION EVENT WHILE OTHER DATA SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HELPING THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION MUCH MORE QUICKLY. UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WILL
BE MADE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS AND FOG TO THE TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT 12Z TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST LATER TUESDAY MORNING AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
DOMINATES.


RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 90 TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM VALUES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH
HIGHER VALUES AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LOWER VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 152046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND DOMINATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL DIG THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION AND WILL PASS
OVERHEAD AROUND 12Z/TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SWING THROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSING TO OUR
SOUTH. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE
AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 7 AM. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STARTED OUT RATHER DRY AND
NEEDS TIME TO MOISTEN UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH
POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL/COLD TONIGHT AS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AS THE SHORT
WAVE...COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECTING A DRY AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA PASSING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR FROST MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ADD MENTION TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE
REGION. BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING OUR REGION AND WITH T850 AND T925
TEMPERATURES ON 15/12Z MODEL DATA BETWEEN 0C AND 4C...PATCHY FROST
MAYBE POSSIBLE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION
AS FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND EXIT THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE ATLANTIC
COAST LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BRINGING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 60S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 70S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 15/12Z GLOBAL AND PROBABILISTIC MODELS
OUTPUT NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
THE TIMING HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. SYNOPTIC PATTERNS
ALSO DIFFER WHICH DOES CHANGE THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DUE TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE VORITICTY
MAXIMA UPSTREAM OF THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSION. SOME 12Z GUIDANCE
EXHIBIT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THAT MAY
SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT POSING A MULTIPLE DAY
PRECIPITATION EVENT WHILE OTHER DATA SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HELPING THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION MUCH MORE QUICKLY. UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WILL
BE MADE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS AND FOG TO THE TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT 12Z TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST LATER TUESDAY MORNING AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
DOMINATES.


RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 90 TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM VALUES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH
HIGHER VALUES AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LOWER VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KBUF 151950
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
350 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS RAIN WILL COME TO
AN END EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT BRINGS CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FOUND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SHOWERS AND SOUTHERN THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AS THEY STREAM
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE REGION TONIGHT LIFT AHEAD OF THE FEATURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS.
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY REMAINS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND DO NOT FEEL THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TO THE NORTH ACROSS
OUR REGION.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONIGHT. RAINFALL LOOKS
TO RANGE BETWEEN A TENTH AND A THIRD OF AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH A FEW AREAS NEAR THE STATE LINE UNDER MINIMAL INSTABILITY
POSSIBLY NEARING HALF AN INCH.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACROSS
CNY...WITH THE COLD FRONT SIMILARLY NEAR CNY AS WELL. THUS SYNOPTIC
SHOWERS FOR TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE RESERVED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT AS 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER
EVEN THESE 850 HPA READING OF AROUND +4C OVER THE WARM LAKE WATERS
ALONG WITH WINDS VEERING TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MAY BRING A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW
NYS. WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE MORNING HERE...WITH
DAYTIME MIXING ENDING ANY ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO BY TIME ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS GENERATE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...FEEL THAT IT WILL BE LATE ENOUGH IN THE MORNING THAT NO
ORGANIZED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.

CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND PRETTY
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FOR TOMORROW HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S. THE WARMEST AREAS IN
THE REGION...WHERE HIGHS MAY REACH INTO THE MID 60S WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE
ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE WILL PROMOTE THE GREATEST AFTERNOON WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
INITIALLY DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW
JUST OFF THE SURFACE...A COOL AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS...AND A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO TRAP A SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY MAY
REMAIN MORE CLEAR. EVEN WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
THERE MAY BE SOME SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG. ASSUMING THE CLOUD COVER
MATERIALIZES...IT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS UP A LITTLE IN AN OTHERWISE
CHILLY AIRMASS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION. IF SKIES DO REMAIN CLEAR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS MAY SEE PATCHY FROST.

ON WEDNESDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MEANWHILE A
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO ANY
MORNING STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT AND GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS OF +4C TO +6 WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS...AND LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC. THE FRONT
WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND ANY LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC ASCENT WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE MAY KEEP THESE
SPRINKLES...OR PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE GOING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FROM SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...AND
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
MORE STRATUS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THURSDAY
FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA.

STEADY COLD ADVECTION AND POST-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 50S IN MOST AREAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND. SOME STRATUS MAY STILL LINGER SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING
THE EVENING...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT LATER AT NIGHT
AND SHOULD ALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW TO BREAK DOWN AND YIELD CLEARING
SKIES. A COOL/DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND 40 ON THE LAKE
PLAINS WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE IN THE COOLER SPOTS OF THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH SOME FROST
POSSIBLE. THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. BURGEONING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL AID IN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER AFTER A
CHILLY MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS...WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

OVER THE WEEKEND A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND FORCE DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES AND WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD PUSH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES AT
LEAST INTO THE MID 70S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AIDED BY SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE LATEST 12Z GFS REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN KEEPING SATURDAY DRY...AND THE NEW
12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED STRONGLY IN THAT DIRECTION AND NOW KEEPS A
FRONTAL ZONE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
LAKES. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR MONDAY FOLLOWING THE SUNDAY COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 18Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION...CLOUDS THAT
ARE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE THAT IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL
AND LOWERING CIGS ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z. MUCH OF THE
TIME SHOULD BE VFR...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS ARE
LIKELY WITHIN THE RAIN SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS
EASTWARD AXIS ALONG WITH THE NOW EASTWARD WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING AN END TO THE RAINFALL. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ALONG WITH MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER AROUND TO
NORTHWESTERLY. OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 12
AND 00Z TOMORROW WITH A GENERAL LIGHT WIND FLOW.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG WITH
LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL BRING 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES ON LAKE ERIE...AND ON LAKE
ONTARIO A LONGER FETCH TO THE LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES.
BASED ON THIS ALONG WITH WINDS NEARING 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR LAKE ONTARIO FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 151950
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
350 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS RAIN WILL COME TO
AN END EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT BRINGS CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FOUND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SHOWERS AND SOUTHERN THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AS THEY STREAM
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE REGION TONIGHT LIFT AHEAD OF THE FEATURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS.
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY REMAINS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND DO NOT FEEL THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TO THE NORTH ACROSS
OUR REGION.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONIGHT. RAINFALL LOOKS
TO RANGE BETWEEN A TENTH AND A THIRD OF AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH A FEW AREAS NEAR THE STATE LINE UNDER MINIMAL INSTABILITY
POSSIBLY NEARING HALF AN INCH.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACROSS
CNY...WITH THE COLD FRONT SIMILARLY NEAR CNY AS WELL. THUS SYNOPTIC
SHOWERS FOR TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE RESERVED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT AS 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER
EVEN THESE 850 HPA READING OF AROUND +4C OVER THE WARM LAKE WATERS
ALONG WITH WINDS VEERING TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MAY BRING A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW
NYS. WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE MORNING HERE...WITH
DAYTIME MIXING ENDING ANY ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO BY TIME ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS GENERATE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...FEEL THAT IT WILL BE LATE ENOUGH IN THE MORNING THAT NO
ORGANIZED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.

CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND PRETTY
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FOR TOMORROW HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S. THE WARMEST AREAS IN
THE REGION...WHERE HIGHS MAY REACH INTO THE MID 60S WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE
ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE WILL PROMOTE THE GREATEST AFTERNOON WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
INITIALLY DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW
JUST OFF THE SURFACE...A COOL AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS...AND A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO TRAP A SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY MAY
REMAIN MORE CLEAR. EVEN WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
THERE MAY BE SOME SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG. ASSUMING THE CLOUD COVER
MATERIALIZES...IT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS UP A LITTLE IN AN OTHERWISE
CHILLY AIRMASS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION. IF SKIES DO REMAIN CLEAR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS MAY SEE PATCHY FROST.

ON WEDNESDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MEANWHILE A
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO ANY
MORNING STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT AND GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS OF +4C TO +6 WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS...AND LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC. THE FRONT
WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND ANY LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC ASCENT WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE MAY KEEP THESE
SPRINKLES...OR PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE GOING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FROM SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...AND
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
MORE STRATUS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THURSDAY
FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA.

STEADY COLD ADVECTION AND POST-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 50S IN MOST AREAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND. SOME STRATUS MAY STILL LINGER SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING
THE EVENING...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT LATER AT NIGHT
AND SHOULD ALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW TO BREAK DOWN AND YIELD CLEARING
SKIES. A COOL/DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND 40 ON THE LAKE
PLAINS WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE IN THE COOLER SPOTS OF THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH SOME FROST
POSSIBLE. THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. BURGEONING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL AID IN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER AFTER A
CHILLY MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS...WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

OVER THE WEEKEND A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND FORCE DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES AND WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD PUSH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES AT
LEAST INTO THE MID 70S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AIDED BY SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE LATEST 12Z GFS REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN KEEPING SATURDAY DRY...AND THE NEW
12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED STRONGLY IN THAT DIRECTION AND NOW KEEPS A
FRONTAL ZONE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
LAKES. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR MONDAY FOLLOWING THE SUNDAY COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 18Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION...CLOUDS THAT
ARE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE THAT IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL
AND LOWERING CIGS ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z. MUCH OF THE
TIME SHOULD BE VFR...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS ARE
LIKELY WITHIN THE RAIN SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS
EASTWARD AXIS ALONG WITH THE NOW EASTWARD WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING AN END TO THE RAINFALL. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ALONG WITH MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER AROUND TO
NORTHWESTERLY. OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 12
AND 00Z TOMORROW WITH A GENERAL LIGHT WIND FLOW.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG WITH
LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL BRING 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES ON LAKE ERIE...AND ON LAKE
ONTARIO A LONGER FETCH TO THE LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES.
BASED ON THIS ALONG WITH WINDS NEARING 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR LAKE ONTARIO FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS






000
FXUS61 KBTV 151947
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AT 19Z WILL TRANSLATE
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY.
WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOSTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15" TO 0.30" ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS THAN
LAST NIGHT...AND PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 50F AT BTV/MSS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
LOCALLY SW 10MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
GUSTINESS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL 5-10 MPH
S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN
THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS
CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL,
JUST KEEP ON READING:

THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY.
MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN,
BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY
JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC
PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT
DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT
ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO
WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY
FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE
WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING
PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH.

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING
TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES
OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER
THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS
AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS
COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS
WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN
BE A BIT STRONGER.  IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY.


SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY.
EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING
IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH
INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREA WIDE AT THE MOMENT. THIS WILL
LAST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING, THE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY IN THE 01-04Z
TIMEFRAME, SPREADING EAST INTO VERMONT BETWEEN 04-06Z. WITH THE
SHOWERS, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND ULTIMATELY FALL INTO
MVFR CATEGORIES. IN GENERAL THE RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, SO
NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY, BUT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
ALSO MIX IN AT SLK AND MPV, SO MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE ONCE AGAIN IFR TO LIFR FOR
MPV AND SLK, BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS END
PRIOR TO 12Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND BY 15Z IN VERMONT. CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY VERY WELL HANG ON IN
MANY AREAS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBGM 151943
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
343 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE QUICK TO
EXIT IN THE MORNING...YET CLOUDS MAY HANG IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE BREAKING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK KEEPING THE REGION DRY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
PLENTY OF EARLY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH APPROACH. WAVE CAN BE SEEN ALREADY
CRUISING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON WATER VAPOR
LOOP IMAGERY. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT THIS EVENING VIA TOP-DOWN MOISTENING...AS UPPER LEVELS AND
FORCED ASCENT OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET...OUTPACE THE LOW
LEVELS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WEAK FRONT-SURFACE TROUGH THEN
SWEEPING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM. IT IS A
HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF
AN INCH. ALSO...THE FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOW ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY TO PA...WILL SHUNT WELL EAST TO THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST BY THE TIME THE TROUGH ARRIVES...PRECLUDING ANY CHANCE OF
THUNDER. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS-SPRINKLES BY DAWN WILL BE QUICK TO EXIT
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND COOL AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...SHOULD MAKE THE CLOUDS MORE
STUBBORN TO BREAK. LOSS OF DIURNAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY LATE IN
THE DAY SHOULD THEN HASTEN IT. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGHS TO
MAINLY LOW TO MID 60S FROM TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD...BUT FARTHER
SOUTH CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOONER ALLOWING THE SUN TO BRING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S-NEAR 70 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
MIDWESTERN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY NEW COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DROP OUT OF CANADA BY LATE THURSDAY. THESE TWO HIGHS WILL BE
SEPARATED BY A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SHALLOW POST-FRONTAL
MOIST LAYER COULD YIELD A FEW SPRINKLES FROM TUG HILL TO FINGER
LAKES REGION EARLY THURSDAY...OTHERWISE JUST COOL AND CLOUDY FOR
MOST OF THE NEW YORK ZONES THURSDAY /LESS SO SOUTH OF THE TWIN
TIERS IN NEPA/.

WITH THE FIRST HIGH NOT COMING OUT OF CANADA...GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT YET WITH PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL ONLY LIMITED
TO THE WESTERN CATSKILL VALLEYS IF ANYTHING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES JUST SHY OF
CLIMATOLOGY. FROST POTENTIAL MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER COME THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH DESCENDING INTO THE AREA.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

A SCATTERED CU AND CIRRUS FIELD WILL BE OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH
SUNSET. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH
A MID DECK ACROSS OUR REGION AFTER SUNSET. SHOWERS, WITH ATTENDANT
MVFR CONDITIONS, WILL ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
3Z AND 8Z.

DRIER AIR WILL RETURN BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE AFTN TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT
ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 151943
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
343 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE QUICK TO
EXIT IN THE MORNING...YET CLOUDS MAY HANG IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE BREAKING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK KEEPING THE REGION DRY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
PLENTY OF EARLY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH APPROACH. WAVE CAN BE SEEN ALREADY
CRUISING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON WATER VAPOR
LOOP IMAGERY. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT THIS EVENING VIA TOP-DOWN MOISTENING...AS UPPER LEVELS AND
FORCED ASCENT OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET...OUTPACE THE LOW
LEVELS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WEAK FRONT-SURFACE TROUGH THEN
SWEEPING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM. IT IS A
HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF
AN INCH. ALSO...THE FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOW ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY TO PA...WILL SHUNT WELL EAST TO THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST BY THE TIME THE TROUGH ARRIVES...PRECLUDING ANY CHANCE OF
THUNDER. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS-SPRINKLES BY DAWN WILL BE QUICK TO EXIT
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND COOL AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...SHOULD MAKE THE CLOUDS MORE
STUBBORN TO BREAK. LOSS OF DIURNAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY LATE IN
THE DAY SHOULD THEN HASTEN IT. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGHS TO
MAINLY LOW TO MID 60S FROM TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD...BUT FARTHER
SOUTH CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOONER ALLOWING THE SUN TO BRING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S-NEAR 70 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
MIDWESTERN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY NEW COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DROP OUT OF CANADA BY LATE THURSDAY. THESE TWO HIGHS WILL BE
SEPARATED BY A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SHALLOW POST-FRONTAL
MOIST LAYER COULD YIELD A FEW SPRINKLES FROM TUG HILL TO FINGER
LAKES REGION EARLY THURSDAY...OTHERWISE JUST COOL AND CLOUDY FOR
MOST OF THE NEW YORK ZONES THURSDAY /LESS SO SOUTH OF THE TWIN
TIERS IN NEPA/.

WITH THE FIRST HIGH NOT COMING OUT OF CANADA...GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT YET WITH PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL ONLY LIMITED
TO THE WESTERN CATSKILL VALLEYS IF ANYTHING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES JUST SHY OF
CLIMATOLOGY. FROST POTENTIAL MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER COME THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH DESCENDING INTO THE AREA.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

A SCATTERED CU AND CIRRUS FIELD WILL BE OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH
SUNSET. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH
A MID DECK ACROSS OUR REGION AFTER SUNSET. SHOWERS, WITH ATTENDANT
MVFR CONDITIONS, WILL ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
3Z AND 8Z.

DRIER AIR WILL RETURN BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE AFTN TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT
ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KOKX 151941
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
341 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THESE WILL MOVE ACROSS
AND WEAKEN TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS...EVENTUALLY
LOWERING AND THICKENING LATE. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS WELL AS A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HAVE AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE.

MUCH OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND WITH THE PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO START...RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL BE EFFECTIVE. LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS...YIELDING A
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

POPS INCREASE LATE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 08Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WENT WITH COVERAGE
WORDING AND ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NUMEROUS NEAR NYC AND N/W
BUT MORE SCATTERED FARTHER EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING A CONSISTENT TREND OF BREAKING UP AND
LOWERING THE QPF AS THE FRONT TRACKS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE JET STREAK WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY SO THE FORCING FOR
LIFT WILL BE LOST AND THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL WEAKEN...LEAVING
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THEREAFTER
ON TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.

OVERALL CONDITIONS MAY END UP DRYING OUT EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
WIND DIRECTION IS ALSO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH LIGHT WIND
SPEEDS...SO THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LESS MOISTURE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NEAR.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WERE A BLEND OF 2/3 NAM12 AND 1/3
GMOS...ACCOUNTING FOR LOWER TEMPS DUE TO WET GROUND FROM
RAINFALL...ALLOWING FOR MORE INSOLATION TO GO INTO THE EVAPORATION
OF WATER. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAKEN
LATER TUESDAY MORNING. THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND WITH A DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECREASING
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND ADVECTING IN COOLER AIR.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WHICH YIELD A RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND NO
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY WITH JUST A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE TROUGH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AT NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS WED-THU NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL DROP
VALUES INTO THE 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

NAM/MOSGUIDE BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A
MOSGUIDE/WPC BLEND THEREAFTER. VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST OVERALL WITH TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES SAT-MON AS HEIGHTS RISE AHEAD
OF A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. 20/00Z ECMWF RUN WAS AN
OUTLIER IN RELATION TO PRECIP ON SATURDAY. 20/12Z HAS COME INTO LINE
WITH THE GFS/CMC LENDING TO A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WELL
TO THE WEST WILL BE APPROACHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE EAST...EXPECT PRECIP TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AHEAD THE FRONT ON SATURDAY SO EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFFSHORE INTO THIS EVENING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...THEN
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

MOST LIKELY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR WITH
ANY -SHRA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM SAY 09-14Z...BUT  MORE LIKELY
JUST A FEW HOURS WITH CEILINGS 4000-6000 FT. HAVE  PLAYED THAT WAY
IN TAFS. PROBABILITY OF -SHRA WITH THE TROUGH HAS DECREASED...SO
HAVE SCALED BACK TO JUST VCSH IN TAFS...EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE
MAINTAINED -SHRA IN PREVAILING.

LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS IN PLACE EXCEPT WHERE SEABREEZE HAS KICKED IN
AT KJFK/KEWR/KBDR AND KGON. DO EXPECT SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AT REMAINDER OF TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF AND KHPN. WINDS THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/LIGHT SW CITY TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS
THEN BECOME W-NW BEHIND THE TROUGH. EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW 10 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE REACHING LGA IS
MODERATE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS
MODERATE-HIGH.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS HIGH.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE-E WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EVEN WITH INCREASING SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS
WED-SAT WITH MAINLY SUB SCA CRITERIA EXPECTED. WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW
PASSING TO THE EAST...SWELLS INCREASE WED WITH OCEAN SEAS POSSIBLY
REACHING 5 FT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS WELL...WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SEAS COULD ONCE AGAIN RISE
AGAIN TO 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THEREAFTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/LN
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JM/LN
HYDROLOGY...JM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 151941
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
341 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THESE WILL MOVE ACROSS
AND WEAKEN TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS...EVENTUALLY
LOWERING AND THICKENING LATE. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS WELL AS A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HAVE AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE.

MUCH OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND WITH THE PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO START...RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL BE EFFECTIVE. LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS...YIELDING A
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

POPS INCREASE LATE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 08Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WENT WITH COVERAGE
WORDING AND ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NUMEROUS NEAR NYC AND N/W
BUT MORE SCATTERED FARTHER EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING A CONSISTENT TREND OF BREAKING UP AND
LOWERING THE QPF AS THE FRONT TRACKS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE JET STREAK WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY SO THE FORCING FOR
LIFT WILL BE LOST AND THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL WEAKEN...LEAVING
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THEREAFTER
ON TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.

OVERALL CONDITIONS MAY END UP DRYING OUT EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
WIND DIRECTION IS ALSO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH LIGHT WIND
SPEEDS...SO THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LESS MOISTURE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NEAR.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WERE A BLEND OF 2/3 NAM12 AND 1/3
GMOS...ACCOUNTING FOR LOWER TEMPS DUE TO WET GROUND FROM
RAINFALL...ALLOWING FOR MORE INSOLATION TO GO INTO THE EVAPORATION
OF WATER. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAKEN
LATER TUESDAY MORNING. THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND WITH A DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECREASING
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND ADVECTING IN COOLER AIR.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WHICH YIELD A RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND NO
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY WITH JUST A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE TROUGH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AT NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS WED-THU NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL DROP
VALUES INTO THE 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

NAM/MOSGUIDE BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A
MOSGUIDE/WPC BLEND THEREAFTER. VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST OVERALL WITH TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES SAT-MON AS HEIGHTS RISE AHEAD
OF A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. 20/00Z ECMWF RUN WAS AN
OUTLIER IN RELATION TO PRECIP ON SATURDAY. 20/12Z HAS COME INTO LINE
WITH THE GFS/CMC LENDING TO A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WELL
TO THE WEST WILL BE APPROACHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE EAST...EXPECT PRECIP TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN
AHEAD THE FRONT ON SATURDAY SO EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFFSHORE INTO THIS EVENING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...THEN
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

MOST LIKELY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR WITH
ANY -SHRA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM SAY 09-14Z...BUT  MORE LIKELY
JUST A FEW HOURS WITH CEILINGS 4000-6000 FT. HAVE  PLAYED THAT WAY
IN TAFS. PROBABILITY OF -SHRA WITH THE TROUGH HAS DECREASED...SO
HAVE SCALED BACK TO JUST VCSH IN TAFS...EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE
MAINTAINED -SHRA IN PREVAILING.

LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS IN PLACE EXCEPT WHERE SEABREEZE HAS KICKED IN
AT KJFK/KEWR/KBDR AND KGON. DO EXPECT SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AT REMAINDER OF TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF AND KHPN. WINDS THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/LIGHT SW CITY TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS
THEN BECOME W-NW BEHIND THE TROUGH. EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW 10 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE REACHING LGA IS
MODERATE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS
MODERATE-HIGH.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS HIGH.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE-E WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EVEN WITH INCREASING SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS
WED-SAT WITH MAINLY SUB SCA CRITERIA EXPECTED. WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW
PASSING TO THE EAST...SWELLS INCREASE WED WITH OCEAN SEAS POSSIBLY
REACHING 5 FT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS WELL...WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SEAS COULD ONCE AGAIN RISE
AGAIN TO 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THEREAFTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/LN
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JM/LN
HYDROLOGY...JM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 151923
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
323 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AT 19Z WILL TRANSLATE
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY.
WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOSTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15" TO 0.30" ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS THAN
LAST NIGHT...AND PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 50F AT BTV/MSS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
LOCALLY SW 10MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
GUSTINESS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL 5-10 MPH
S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREA WIDE AT THE MOMENT. THIS WILL
LAST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING, THE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY IN THE 01-04Z
TIMEFRAME, SPREADING EAST INTO VERMONT BETWEEN 04-06Z. WITH THE
SHOWERS, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND ULTIMATELY FALL INTO
MVFR CATEGORIES. IN GENERAL THE RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, SO
NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY, BUT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
ALSO MIX IN AT SLK AND MPV, SO MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE ONCE AGAIN IFR TO LIFR FOR
MPV AND SLK, BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS END
PRIOR TO 12Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND BY 15Z IN VERMONT. CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY VERY WELL HANG ON IN
MANY AREAS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 151923
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
323 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AT 19Z WILL TRANSLATE
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY.
WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOSTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15" TO 0.30" ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS THAN
LAST NIGHT...AND PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 50F AT BTV/MSS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
LOCALLY SW 10MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
GUSTINESS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL 5-10 MPH
S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREA WIDE AT THE MOMENT. THIS WILL
LAST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING, THE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY IN THE 01-04Z
TIMEFRAME, SPREADING EAST INTO VERMONT BETWEEN 04-06Z. WITH THE
SHOWERS, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND ULTIMATELY FALL INTO
MVFR CATEGORIES. IN GENERAL THE RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, SO
NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY, BUT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
ALSO MIX IN AT SLK AND MPV, SO MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE ONCE AGAIN IFR TO LIFR FOR
MPV AND SLK, BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS END
PRIOR TO 12Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND BY 15Z IN VERMONT. CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY VERY WELL HANG ON IN
MANY AREAS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 151923
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
323 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AT 19Z WILL TRANSLATE
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY.
WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOSTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15" TO 0.30" ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS THAN
LAST NIGHT...AND PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 50F AT BTV/MSS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
LOCALLY SW 10MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
GUSTINESS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL 5-10 MPH
S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREA WIDE AT THE MOMENT. THIS WILL
LAST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING, THE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY IN THE 01-04Z
TIMEFRAME, SPREADING EAST INTO VERMONT BETWEEN 04-06Z. WITH THE
SHOWERS, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND ULTIMATELY FALL INTO
MVFR CATEGORIES. IN GENERAL THE RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, SO
NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY, BUT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
ALSO MIX IN AT SLK AND MPV, SO MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE ONCE AGAIN IFR TO LIFR FOR
MPV AND SLK, BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS END
PRIOR TO 12Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND BY 15Z IN VERMONT. CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY VERY WELL HANG ON IN
MANY AREAS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 151923
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
323 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AT 19Z WILL TRANSLATE
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY.
WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOSTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15" TO 0.30" ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS THAN
LAST NIGHT...AND PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 50F AT BTV/MSS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
LOCALLY SW 10MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
GUSTINESS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL 5-10 MPH
S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF
VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST-
EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE
PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS
LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT
BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST
SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF
SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN
QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH
MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO
CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF
CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING
WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE
WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC.

WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREA WIDE AT THE MOMENT. THIS WILL
LAST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING, THE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY IN THE 01-04Z
TIMEFRAME, SPREADING EAST INTO VERMONT BETWEEN 04-06Z. WITH THE
SHOWERS, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND ULTIMATELY FALL INTO
MVFR CATEGORIES. IN GENERAL THE RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, SO
NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY, BUT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
ALSO MIX IN AT SLK AND MPV, SO MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE ONCE AGAIN IFR TO LIFR FOR
MPV AND SLK, BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS END
PRIOR TO 12Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND BY 15Z IN VERMONT. CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY VERY WELL HANG ON IN
MANY AREAS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NASH






000
FXUS61 KOKX 151822
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
222 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO PASS EARLY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND OFFSHORE OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN N/W OF NYC
WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS LOOK
MAINLY ON TRACK. STILL EXPECTING MAX TEMPS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SEA BREEZES ALREADY OCCURRING AT SOME COASTAL CT SITES AND WILL
MOVE INTO OTHER COASTAL SITES AS WELL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS...EVENTUALLY
LOWERING AND THICKENING LATE. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS WELL AS A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HAVE AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE.

MUCH OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND WITH THE PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
EFFECTIVE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. LOWS WERE A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/ECS...YIELDING A RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

POPS INCREASE LATE...AFTER 08Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WENT WITH COVERAGE WORDING AND
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NUMEROUS FOR NEAR NYC AND N/W BUT MORE
SCATTERED FARTHER EAST. THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING A CONSISTENT TREND OF BREAKING UP
AND LOWERING THE QPF AS THE FRONT TRACKS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE JET STREAK WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY SO THE FORCING FOR
LIFT WILL BE LOST AND OVERALL CONDITIONS MAY END UP DRYING OUT
EARLIER THAN FORECAST. WIND DIRECTION IS ALSO SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WITH LIGHT WIND SPEEDS...SO THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LESS MOISTURE TO
GET ENTRAINED INTO THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NEAR.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WERE A BLEND OF 2/3 NAM12 AND 1/3
GMOS...ACCOUNTING FOR LOWER TEMPS DUE TO WET GROUND. THE COLD
FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA LATER TUESDAY MORNING. THE MORE
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BEFORE LIFTING UP INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE INDICATIONS BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS THAT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND THE TROUGH WILL
ONCE AGAIN REESTABLISH ITSELF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A
W/NW FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. A REINFORCING DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP WED NIGHT. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FRI INTO SAT THE FLOW WILL
BECOME ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND.

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH FOLLOWED A BLEND OF
WPC AND MOSGUIDE FOR TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS AND
LOWS WILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE NEXT SUN AS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFFSHORE INTO THIS EVENING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING.

MOST LIKELY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR WITH
ANY -SHRA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT MORE LIKELY JUST A FEW HOURS
WITH CEILINGS 4000-6000 FT. HAVE PLAYED THAT WAY IN TAFS.
PROBABILITY OF -SHRA WITH THE TROUGH HAS DECREASED...SO HAVE
SCALED BACK TO JUST VCSH IN TAFS...EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE MAINTAINED
-SHRA IN PREVAILING.

LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS IN PLACE EXCEPT WHERE SEABREEZE HAS KICKED IN
AT KBDR AND KGON. DO EXPECT SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AT
REMAINDER OF TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF AND KHPN. WINDS THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/LIGHT SW CITY TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN
BECOME W-NW BEHIND THE TROUGH. EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW 10 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS HIGH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE REACHING LGA IS
MODERATE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS
MODERATE-HIGH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS
MODERATE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS
MODERATE-HIGH.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE-E WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EVEN WITH INCREASING SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS
WED-FRI. AS THE HIGH PASSES TO NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK A MODERATE
NE FLOW DEVELOPS. MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN
WATERS DURING THIS TIME DUE TO BOTH SE SWELLS FROM DISTANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD AND THE STRENGTHENING E/NE FLOW AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JM/JMC/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM









000
FXUS61 KOKX 151822
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
222 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO PASS EARLY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND OFFSHORE OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN N/W OF NYC
WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS LOOK
MAINLY ON TRACK. STILL EXPECTING MAX TEMPS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SEA BREEZES ALREADY OCCURRING AT SOME COASTAL CT SITES AND WILL
MOVE INTO OTHER COASTAL SITES AS WELL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS...EVENTUALLY
LOWERING AND THICKENING LATE. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS WELL AS A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HAVE AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE.

MUCH OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND WITH THE PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
EFFECTIVE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. LOWS WERE A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/ECS...YIELDING A RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

POPS INCREASE LATE...AFTER 08Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WENT WITH COVERAGE WORDING AND
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NUMEROUS FOR NEAR NYC AND N/W BUT MORE
SCATTERED FARTHER EAST. THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING A CONSISTENT TREND OF BREAKING UP
AND LOWERING THE QPF AS THE FRONT TRACKS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE JET STREAK WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY SO THE FORCING FOR
LIFT WILL BE LOST AND OVERALL CONDITIONS MAY END UP DRYING OUT
EARLIER THAN FORECAST. WIND DIRECTION IS ALSO SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WITH LIGHT WIND SPEEDS...SO THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LESS MOISTURE TO
GET ENTRAINED INTO THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NEAR.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WERE A BLEND OF 2/3 NAM12 AND 1/3
GMOS...ACCOUNTING FOR LOWER TEMPS DUE TO WET GROUND. THE COLD
FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA LATER TUESDAY MORNING. THE MORE
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BEFORE LIFTING UP INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE INDICATIONS BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS THAT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND THE TROUGH WILL
ONCE AGAIN REESTABLISH ITSELF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A
W/NW FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. A REINFORCING DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP WED NIGHT. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FRI INTO SAT THE FLOW WILL
BECOME ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND.

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH FOLLOWED A BLEND OF
WPC AND MOSGUIDE FOR TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS AND
LOWS WILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE NEXT SUN AS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFFSHORE INTO THIS EVENING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING.

MOST LIKELY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR WITH
ANY -SHRA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT MORE LIKELY JUST A FEW HOURS
WITH CEILINGS 4000-6000 FT. HAVE PLAYED THAT WAY IN TAFS.
PROBABILITY OF -SHRA WITH THE TROUGH HAS DECREASED...SO HAVE
SCALED BACK TO JUST VCSH IN TAFS...EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE MAINTAINED
-SHRA IN PREVAILING.

LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS IN PLACE EXCEPT WHERE SEABREEZE HAS KICKED IN
AT KBDR AND KGON. DO EXPECT SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AT
REMAINDER OF TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF AND KHPN. WINDS THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/LIGHT SW CITY TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN
BECOME W-NW BEHIND THE TROUGH. EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW 10 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS HIGH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE REACHING LGA IS
MODERATE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS
MODERATE-HIGH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS
MODERATE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS
MODERATE-HIGH.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE-E WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EVEN WITH INCREASING SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS
WED-FRI. AS THE HIGH PASSES TO NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK A MODERATE
NE FLOW DEVELOPS. MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN
WATERS DURING THIS TIME DUE TO BOTH SE SWELLS FROM DISTANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD AND THE STRENGTHENING E/NE FLOW AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JM/JMC/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM









000
FXUS61 KOKX 151822
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
222 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO PASS EARLY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND OFFSHORE OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN N/W OF NYC
WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS LOOK
MAINLY ON TRACK. STILL EXPECTING MAX TEMPS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SEA BREEZES ALREADY OCCURRING AT SOME COASTAL CT SITES AND WILL
MOVE INTO OTHER COASTAL SITES AS WELL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS...EVENTUALLY
LOWERING AND THICKENING LATE. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS WELL AS A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HAVE AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE.

MUCH OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND WITH THE PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
EFFECTIVE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. LOWS WERE A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/ECS...YIELDING A RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

POPS INCREASE LATE...AFTER 08Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WENT WITH COVERAGE WORDING AND
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NUMEROUS FOR NEAR NYC AND N/W BUT MORE
SCATTERED FARTHER EAST. THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING A CONSISTENT TREND OF BREAKING UP
AND LOWERING THE QPF AS THE FRONT TRACKS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE JET STREAK WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY SO THE FORCING FOR
LIFT WILL BE LOST AND OVERALL CONDITIONS MAY END UP DRYING OUT
EARLIER THAN FORECAST. WIND DIRECTION IS ALSO SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WITH LIGHT WIND SPEEDS...SO THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LESS MOISTURE TO
GET ENTRAINED INTO THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NEAR.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WERE A BLEND OF 2/3 NAM12 AND 1/3
GMOS...ACCOUNTING FOR LOWER TEMPS DUE TO WET GROUND. THE COLD
FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA LATER TUESDAY MORNING. THE MORE
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BEFORE LIFTING UP INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE INDICATIONS BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS THAT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND THE TROUGH WILL
ONCE AGAIN REESTABLISH ITSELF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A
W/NW FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. A REINFORCING DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP WED NIGHT. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FRI INTO SAT THE FLOW WILL
BECOME ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND.

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH FOLLOWED A BLEND OF
WPC AND MOSGUIDE FOR TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS AND
LOWS WILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE NEXT SUN AS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFFSHORE INTO THIS EVENING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING.

MOST LIKELY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR WITH
ANY -SHRA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT MORE LIKELY JUST A FEW HOURS
WITH CEILINGS 4000-6000 FT. HAVE PLAYED THAT WAY IN TAFS.
PROBABILITY OF -SHRA WITH THE TROUGH HAS DECREASED...SO HAVE
SCALED BACK TO JUST VCSH IN TAFS...EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE MAINTAINED
-SHRA IN PREVAILING.

LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS IN PLACE EXCEPT WHERE SEABREEZE HAS KICKED IN
AT KBDR AND KGON. DO EXPECT SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AT
REMAINDER OF TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF AND KHPN. WINDS THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/LIGHT SW CITY TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN
BECOME W-NW BEHIND THE TROUGH. EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW 10 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS HIGH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE REACHING LGA IS
MODERATE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS
MODERATE-HIGH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS
MODERATE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS
MODERATE-HIGH.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE-E WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EVEN WITH INCREASING SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS
WED-FRI. AS THE HIGH PASSES TO NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK A MODERATE
NE FLOW DEVELOPS. MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN
WATERS DURING THIS TIME DUE TO BOTH SE SWELLS FROM DISTANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD AND THE STRENGTHENING E/NE FLOW AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JM/JMC/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM









000
FXUS61 KOKX 151822
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
222 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO PASS EARLY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND OFFSHORE OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN N/W OF NYC
WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS LOOK
MAINLY ON TRACK. STILL EXPECTING MAX TEMPS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SEA BREEZES ALREADY OCCURRING AT SOME COASTAL CT SITES AND WILL
MOVE INTO OTHER COASTAL SITES AS WELL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS...EVENTUALLY
LOWERING AND THICKENING LATE. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS WELL AS A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HAVE AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE.

MUCH OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND WITH THE PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
EFFECTIVE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. LOWS WERE A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/ECS...YIELDING A RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

POPS INCREASE LATE...AFTER 08Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WENT WITH COVERAGE WORDING AND
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NUMEROUS FOR NEAR NYC AND N/W BUT MORE
SCATTERED FARTHER EAST. THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING A CONSISTENT TREND OF BREAKING UP
AND LOWERING THE QPF AS THE FRONT TRACKS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE JET STREAK WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY SO THE FORCING FOR
LIFT WILL BE LOST AND OVERALL CONDITIONS MAY END UP DRYING OUT
EARLIER THAN FORECAST. WIND DIRECTION IS ALSO SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WITH LIGHT WIND SPEEDS...SO THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LESS MOISTURE TO
GET ENTRAINED INTO THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NEAR.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WERE A BLEND OF 2/3 NAM12 AND 1/3
GMOS...ACCOUNTING FOR LOWER TEMPS DUE TO WET GROUND. THE COLD
FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA LATER TUESDAY MORNING. THE MORE
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BEFORE LIFTING UP INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE INDICATIONS BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS THAT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND THE TROUGH WILL
ONCE AGAIN REESTABLISH ITSELF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A
W/NW FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. A REINFORCING DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP WED NIGHT. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FRI INTO SAT THE FLOW WILL
BECOME ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND.

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH FOLLOWED A BLEND OF
WPC AND MOSGUIDE FOR TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS AND
LOWS WILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE NEXT SUN AS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFFSHORE INTO THIS EVENING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING.

MOST LIKELY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR WITH
ANY -SHRA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT MORE LIKELY JUST A FEW HOURS
WITH CEILINGS 4000-6000 FT. HAVE PLAYED THAT WAY IN TAFS.
PROBABILITY OF -SHRA WITH THE TROUGH HAS DECREASED...SO HAVE
SCALED BACK TO JUST VCSH IN TAFS...EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE MAINTAINED
-SHRA IN PREVAILING.

LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS IN PLACE EXCEPT WHERE SEABREEZE HAS KICKED IN
AT KBDR AND KGON. DO EXPECT SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AT
REMAINDER OF TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF AND KHPN. WINDS THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/LIGHT SW CITY TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN
BECOME W-NW BEHIND THE TROUGH. EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW 10 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS HIGH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE REACHING LGA IS
MODERATE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS
MODERATE-HIGH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS
MODERATE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS
MODERATE-HIGH.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE-E WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EVEN WITH INCREASING SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS
WED-FRI. AS THE HIGH PASSES TO NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK A MODERATE
NE FLOW DEVELOPS. MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN
WATERS DURING THIS TIME DUE TO BOTH SE SWELLS FROM DISTANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD AND THE STRENGTHENING E/NE FLOW AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JM/JMC/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM









000
FXUS61 KBTV 151817
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
217 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1228 PM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATING
SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS REACHING
61-66F IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON (STILL 4-7 DEGREES BELOW MID-
SEPTEMBER NORMALS). MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS NRN NY AND WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE ACROSS VT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A LIGHT S-SWLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP (5-10
MPH) ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT FLOW ON WRN PERIPHERY OF DEPARTING
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN THIS PAST NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREA WIDE AT THE MOMENT. THIS WILL
LAST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING, THE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY IN THE 01-04Z
TIMEFRAME, SPREADING EAST INTO VERMONT BETWEEN 04-06Z. WITH THE
SHOWERS, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND ULTIMATELY FALL INTO
MVFR CATEGORIES. IN GENERAL THE RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, SO
NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY, BUT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
ALSO MIX IN AT SLK AND MPV, SO MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE ONCE AGAIN IFR TO LIFR FOR
MPV AND SLK, BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS END
PRIOR TO 12Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND BY 15Z IN VERMONT. CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY VERY WELL HANG ON IN
MANY AREAS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS
ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBGM 151801
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
201 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE QUICK TO
EXIT IN THE MORNING...YET CLOUDS MAY HANG IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE BREAKING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK KEEPING THE REGION DRY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
PLENTY OF EARLY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH APPROACH. WAVE CAN BE SEEN ALREADY
CRUISING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON WATER VAPOR
LOOP IMAGERY. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT THIS EVENING VIA TOP-DOWN MOISTENING...AS UPPER LEVELS AND
FORCED ASCENT OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET...OUTPACE THE LOW
LEVELS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WEAK FRONT-SURFACE TROUGH THEN
SWEEPING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM. IT IS A
HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF
AN INCH. ALSO...THE FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOW ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY TO PA...WILL SHUNT WELL EAST TO THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST BY THE TIME THE TROUGH ARRIVES...PRECLUDING ANY CHANCE OF
THUNDER. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS-SPRINKLES BY DAWN WILL BE QUICK TO EXIT
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND COOL AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...SHOULD MAKE THE CLOUDS MORE
STUBBORN TO BREAK. LOSS OF DIURNAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY LATE IN
THE DAY SHOULD THEN HASTEN IT. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGHS TO
MAINLY LOW TO MID 60S FROM TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD...BUT FARTHER
SOUTH CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOONER ALLOWING THE SUN TO BRING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S-NEAR 70 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY KEEPING THE REGION DRY. MAX TEMPS ON WED WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SFC TROF WILL DROP SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA
BRINGING SOME INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW AND JUST SHOW SOME INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

A SCATTERED CU AND CIRRUS FIELD WILL BE OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH
SUNSET. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH
A MID DECK ACROSS OUR REGION AFTER SUNSET. SHOWERS, WITH ATTENDANT
MVFR CONDITIONS, WILL ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
3Z AND 8Z.

DRIER AIR WILL RETURN BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE AFTN TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT
ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 151801
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
201 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE QUICK TO
EXIT IN THE MORNING...YET CLOUDS MAY HANG IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE BREAKING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK KEEPING THE REGION DRY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
PLENTY OF EARLY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH APPROACH. WAVE CAN BE SEEN ALREADY
CRUISING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON WATER VAPOR
LOOP IMAGERY. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT THIS EVENING VIA TOP-DOWN MOISTENING...AS UPPER LEVELS AND
FORCED ASCENT OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET...OUTPACE THE LOW
LEVELS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WEAK FRONT-SURFACE TROUGH THEN
SWEEPING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM. IT IS A
HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF
AN INCH. ALSO...THE FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOW ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY TO PA...WILL SHUNT WELL EAST TO THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST BY THE TIME THE TROUGH ARRIVES...PRECLUDING ANY CHANCE OF
THUNDER. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS-SPRINKLES BY DAWN WILL BE QUICK TO EXIT
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND COOL AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...SHOULD MAKE THE CLOUDS MORE
STUBBORN TO BREAK. LOSS OF DIURNAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY LATE IN
THE DAY SHOULD THEN HASTEN IT. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGHS TO
MAINLY LOW TO MID 60S FROM TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD...BUT FARTHER
SOUTH CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOONER ALLOWING THE SUN TO BRING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S-NEAR 70 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY KEEPING THE REGION DRY. MAX TEMPS ON WED WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SFC TROF WILL DROP SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA
BRINGING SOME INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW AND JUST SHOW SOME INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

A SCATTERED CU AND CIRRUS FIELD WILL BE OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH
SUNSET. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH
A MID DECK ACROSS OUR REGION AFTER SUNSET. SHOWERS, WITH ATTENDANT
MVFR CONDITIONS, WILL ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
3Z AND 8Z.

DRIER AIR WILL RETURN BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE AFTN TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT
ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 151801
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
201 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE QUICK TO
EXIT IN THE MORNING...YET CLOUDS MAY HANG IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE BREAKING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK KEEPING THE REGION DRY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
PLENTY OF EARLY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH APPROACH. WAVE CAN BE SEEN ALREADY
CRUISING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON WATER VAPOR
LOOP IMAGERY. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT THIS EVENING VIA TOP-DOWN MOISTENING...AS UPPER LEVELS AND
FORCED ASCENT OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET...OUTPACE THE LOW
LEVELS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WEAK FRONT-SURFACE TROUGH THEN
SWEEPING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM. IT IS A
HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF
AN INCH. ALSO...THE FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOW ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY TO PA...WILL SHUNT WELL EAST TO THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST BY THE TIME THE TROUGH ARRIVES...PRECLUDING ANY CHANCE OF
THUNDER. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS-SPRINKLES BY DAWN WILL BE QUICK TO EXIT
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND COOL AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...SHOULD MAKE THE CLOUDS MORE
STUBBORN TO BREAK. LOSS OF DIURNAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY LATE IN
THE DAY SHOULD THEN HASTEN IT. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGHS TO
MAINLY LOW TO MID 60S FROM TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD...BUT FARTHER
SOUTH CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOONER ALLOWING THE SUN TO BRING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S-NEAR 70 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY KEEPING THE REGION DRY. MAX TEMPS ON WED WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SFC TROF WILL DROP SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA
BRINGING SOME INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW AND JUST SHOW SOME INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

A SCATTERED CU AND CIRRUS FIELD WILL BE OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH
SUNSET. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH
A MID DECK ACROSS OUR REGION AFTER SUNSET. SHOWERS, WITH ATTENDANT
MVFR CONDITIONS, WILL ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
3Z AND 8Z.

DRIER AIR WILL RETURN BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE AFTN TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT
ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 151801
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
201 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE QUICK TO
EXIT IN THE MORNING...YET CLOUDS MAY HANG IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE BREAKING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK KEEPING THE REGION DRY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
PLENTY OF EARLY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH APPROACH. WAVE CAN BE SEEN ALREADY
CRUISING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON WATER VAPOR
LOOP IMAGERY. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT THIS EVENING VIA TOP-DOWN MOISTENING...AS UPPER LEVELS AND
FORCED ASCENT OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET...OUTPACE THE LOW
LEVELS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WEAK FRONT-SURFACE TROUGH THEN
SWEEPING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM. IT IS A
HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO WITH ONLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF
AN INCH. ALSO...THE FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOW ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY TO PA...WILL SHUNT WELL EAST TO THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST BY THE TIME THE TROUGH ARRIVES...PRECLUDING ANY CHANCE OF
THUNDER. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS-SPRINKLES BY DAWN WILL BE QUICK TO EXIT
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND COOL AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...SHOULD MAKE THE CLOUDS MORE
STUBBORN TO BREAK. LOSS OF DIURNAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY LATE IN
THE DAY SHOULD THEN HASTEN IT. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGHS TO
MAINLY LOW TO MID 60S FROM TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD...BUT FARTHER
SOUTH CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOONER ALLOWING THE SUN TO BRING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S-NEAR 70 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY KEEPING THE REGION DRY. MAX TEMPS ON WED WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SFC TROF WILL DROP SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA
BRINGING SOME INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW AND JUST SHOW SOME INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

A SCATTERED CU AND CIRRUS FIELD WILL BE OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH
SUNSET. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH
A MID DECK ACROSS OUR REGION AFTER SUNSET. SHOWERS, WITH ATTENDANT
MVFR CONDITIONS, WILL ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
3Z AND 8Z.

DRIER AIR WILL RETURN BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE AFTN TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT
ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KALY 151751
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
151 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT STILL
ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD END TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON
CLEARING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE LINGERING FOG BURNED OFF AND
THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
HAS BROKEN UP. CURRENTLY HAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY WARMING FROM THEIR CHILLY START.
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE 295-300 K SURFACES WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
RATHER QUICKLY...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LAKE GEORGE REGION BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE
SARATOGA AND CAPITAL REGIONS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM...THEN PRESSING S
AND E INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN
DEVELOP...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS A RATHER FAST MOVER...AND IT
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SHOULD
BE MAINLY E OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 8 AM. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...ESP AREAS E
OF THE HUDSON RIVER. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY
MIDDAY...CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME AREAS UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS PERSIST EVEN
LONGER...EVEN COOLER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

TUE NT-WED NT...TRICKY CALL FOR TUE NT...AS THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT LOW CLOUDS REFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND PERSISTENT W/NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SOME
PATCHY CLOUDS...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN IN AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE
WITH THE WARMER MET MOS...ASSUMING SOME CLOUDS REDEVELOP...WITH
MIN TEMPS MAINLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME PATCHY FROST COULD
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
PERSIST. WED SHOULD BE MILDER...AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA
SLOWLY APPROACHES. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
LATE WED NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND
COULD TRIGGER SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START DRY AND END WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
BY SUNDAY.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SETS UP WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
MORNING AND TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS AND FOG TO THE TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT 12Z TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST LATER TUESDAY MORNING AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. SOME
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
THEN FALL INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY...AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND THIRD AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...SND/KL
HYDROLOGY...SND/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 151751
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
151 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT STILL
ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD END TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON
CLEARING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE LINGERING FOG BURNED OFF AND
THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
HAS BROKEN UP. CURRENTLY HAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY WARMING FROM THEIR CHILLY START.
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE 295-300 K SURFACES WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
RATHER QUICKLY...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LAKE GEORGE REGION BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE
SARATOGA AND CAPITAL REGIONS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM...THEN PRESSING S
AND E INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN
DEVELOP...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS A RATHER FAST MOVER...AND IT
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SHOULD
BE MAINLY E OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 8 AM. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...ESP AREAS E
OF THE HUDSON RIVER. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY
MIDDAY...CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME AREAS UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS PERSIST EVEN
LONGER...EVEN COOLER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

TUE NT-WED NT...TRICKY CALL FOR TUE NT...AS THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT LOW CLOUDS REFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND PERSISTENT W/NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SOME
PATCHY CLOUDS...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN IN AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE
WITH THE WARMER MET MOS...ASSUMING SOME CLOUDS REDEVELOP...WITH
MIN TEMPS MAINLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME PATCHY FROST COULD
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
PERSIST. WED SHOULD BE MILDER...AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA
SLOWLY APPROACHES. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
LATE WED NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND
COULD TRIGGER SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START DRY AND END WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
BY SUNDAY.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SETS UP WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
MORNING AND TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS AND FOG TO THE TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT 12Z TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST LATER TUESDAY MORNING AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. SOME
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
THEN FALL INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY...AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND THIRD AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...SND/KL
HYDROLOGY...SND/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 151751
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
151 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT STILL
ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD END TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON
CLEARING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE LINGERING FOG BURNED OFF AND
THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
HAS BROKEN UP. CURRENTLY HAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY WARMING FROM THEIR CHILLY START.
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE 295-300 K SURFACES WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
RATHER QUICKLY...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LAKE GEORGE REGION BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE
SARATOGA AND CAPITAL REGIONS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM...THEN PRESSING S
AND E INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN
DEVELOP...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS A RATHER FAST MOVER...AND IT
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SHOULD
BE MAINLY E OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 8 AM. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...ESP AREAS E
OF THE HUDSON RIVER. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY
MIDDAY...CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME AREAS UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS PERSIST EVEN
LONGER...EVEN COOLER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

TUE NT-WED NT...TRICKY CALL FOR TUE NT...AS THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT LOW CLOUDS REFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND PERSISTENT W/NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SOME
PATCHY CLOUDS...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN IN AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE
WITH THE WARMER MET MOS...ASSUMING SOME CLOUDS REDEVELOP...WITH
MIN TEMPS MAINLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME PATCHY FROST COULD
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
PERSIST. WED SHOULD BE MILDER...AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA
SLOWLY APPROACHES. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
LATE WED NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND
COULD TRIGGER SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START DRY AND END WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
BY SUNDAY.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SETS UP WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
MORNING AND TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS AND FOG TO THE TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT 12Z TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST LATER TUESDAY MORNING AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. SOME
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
THEN FALL INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY...AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND THIRD AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...SND/KL
HYDROLOGY...SND/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 151751
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
151 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT STILL
ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD END TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON
CLEARING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE LINGERING FOG BURNED OFF AND
THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
HAS BROKEN UP. CURRENTLY HAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY WARMING FROM THEIR CHILLY START.
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE 295-300 K SURFACES WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
RATHER QUICKLY...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LAKE GEORGE REGION BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE
SARATOGA AND CAPITAL REGIONS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM...THEN PRESSING S
AND E INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN
DEVELOP...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS A RATHER FAST MOVER...AND IT
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SHOULD
BE MAINLY E OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 8 AM. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...ESP AREAS E
OF THE HUDSON RIVER. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY
MIDDAY...CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME AREAS UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS PERSIST EVEN
LONGER...EVEN COOLER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

TUE NT-WED NT...TRICKY CALL FOR TUE NT...AS THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT LOW CLOUDS REFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND PERSISTENT W/NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SOME
PATCHY CLOUDS...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN IN AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE
WITH THE WARMER MET MOS...ASSUMING SOME CLOUDS REDEVELOP...WITH
MIN TEMPS MAINLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME PATCHY FROST COULD
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
PERSIST. WED SHOULD BE MILDER...AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA
SLOWLY APPROACHES. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
LATE WED NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND
COULD TRIGGER SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START DRY AND END WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
BY SUNDAY.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SETS UP WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
MORNING AND TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS AND FOG TO THE TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT 12Z TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST LATER TUESDAY MORNING AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. SOME
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
THEN FALL INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY...AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND THIRD AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...SND/KL
HYDROLOGY...SND/KL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 151749
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
149 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS RAIN WILL COME TO
AN END EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT BRINGS CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHILE THICKENING TO THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

THIS CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A DECENT CAP BETWEEN
850-700MB WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTEAD THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DRIVEN BY PV
ADVECTION AS THE CORE OF THE PV ANOMALY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. THE
RESULTING SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW
YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY BLOSSOMING ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH 850MB
TEMPS TO AROUND +6C...TRANSLATING TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S
WITH WARMEST AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY
WHERE LIMITED DOWNSLOPING MAY ADD A DEGREE OR TWO...PUSHING READINGS
TOWARDS THE MID-60S. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS BOTTOMING
OUT AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK...WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT QUICKLY
SHIFTS EAST TO NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND WITH
DRY AIR HELPING TO CLEAR SKIES FOR SOME SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH THEN OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW MID-SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

A MOISTURE-STARVED SECONDARY COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY APPROACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH A POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE RIPPLING ALONG THE FRONT
KEEPS CONCERN FOR A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY MORNING THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BEFORE
WASHING OUT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAKENING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER
LAKES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH CLEARING AND DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO THE
NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 OR NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK TO THE MID-UPPER 30S INLAND TO
MID 40S NEAR THE LAKES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
FROST CONCERNS AND PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

ON FRIDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE GULF OF
MAINE. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DRY DAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AS A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN
FLOW OF MILDER AIR BEGINS OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN CANADA.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS TO OUR
REGION...THE CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL HELP TO
PUMP EVEN WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO FINALLY CLIMB BACK TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 18Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION...CLOUDS THAT
ARE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE THAT IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL
AND LOWERING CIGS ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z. MUCH OF THE
TIME SHOULD BE VFR...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS ARE
LIKELY WITHIN THE RAIN SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS
EASTWARD AXIS ALONG WITH THE NOW EASTWARD WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING AN END TO THE RAINFALL. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ALONG WITH MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER AROUND TO
NORTHWESTERLY. OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 12
AND 00Z TOMORROW WITH A GENERAL LIGHT WIND FLOW.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG WITH
LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS LOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL BRING 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES ON LAKE ERIE...AND ON LAKE
ONTARIO A LONGER FETCH TO THE LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES.
BASED ON THIS ALONG WITH WINDS NEARING 20 KNOTS WILL HOIST A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAKE ONTARIO FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. .

WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS/WOOD








000
FXUS61 KBUF 151749
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
149 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS RAIN WILL COME TO
AN END EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT BRINGS CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHILE THICKENING TO THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

THIS CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A DECENT CAP BETWEEN
850-700MB WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTEAD THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DRIVEN BY PV
ADVECTION AS THE CORE OF THE PV ANOMALY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. THE
RESULTING SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW
YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY BLOSSOMING ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH 850MB
TEMPS TO AROUND +6C...TRANSLATING TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S
WITH WARMEST AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY
WHERE LIMITED DOWNSLOPING MAY ADD A DEGREE OR TWO...PUSHING READINGS
TOWARDS THE MID-60S. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS BOTTOMING
OUT AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK...WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT QUICKLY
SHIFTS EAST TO NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND WITH
DRY AIR HELPING TO CLEAR SKIES FOR SOME SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH THEN OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW MID-SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

A MOISTURE-STARVED SECONDARY COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY APPROACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH A POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE RIPPLING ALONG THE FRONT
KEEPS CONCERN FOR A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY MORNING THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BEFORE
WASHING OUT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAKENING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER
LAKES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH CLEARING AND DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO THE
NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 OR NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK TO THE MID-UPPER 30S INLAND TO
MID 40S NEAR THE LAKES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
FROST CONCERNS AND PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

ON FRIDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE GULF OF
MAINE. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DRY DAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AS A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN
FLOW OF MILDER AIR BEGINS OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN CANADA.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS TO OUR
REGION...THE CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL HELP TO
PUMP EVEN WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO FINALLY CLIMB BACK TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 18Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION...CLOUDS THAT
ARE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE THAT IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL
AND LOWERING CIGS ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z. MUCH OF THE
TIME SHOULD BE VFR...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS ARE
LIKELY WITHIN THE RAIN SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS
EASTWARD AXIS ALONG WITH THE NOW EASTWARD WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING AN END TO THE RAINFALL. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ALONG WITH MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER AROUND TO
NORTHWESTERLY. OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 12
AND 00Z TOMORROW WITH A GENERAL LIGHT WIND FLOW.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG WITH
LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS LOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL BRING 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES ON LAKE ERIE...AND ON LAKE
ONTARIO A LONGER FETCH TO THE LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES.
BASED ON THIS ALONG WITH WINDS NEARING 20 KNOTS WILL HOIST A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAKE ONTARIO FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. .

WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS/WOOD







000
FXUS61 KALY 151711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT STILL
ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD END TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON
CLEARING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE LINGERING FOG BURNED OFF AND
THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
HAS BROKEN UP. CURRENTLY HAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY WARMING FROM THEIR CHILLY START.
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE 295-300 K SURFACES WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
RATHER QUICKLY...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LAKE GEORGE REGION BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE
SARATOGA AND CAPITAL REGIONS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM...THEN PRESSING S
AND E INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN
DEVELOP...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS A RATHER FAST MOVER...AND IT
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SHOULD
BE MAINLY E OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 8 AM. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...ESP AREAS E
OF THE HUDSON RIVER. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY
MIDDAY...CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME AREAS UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS PERSIST EVEN
LONGER...EVEN COOLER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

TUE NT-WED NT...TRICKY CALL FOR TUE NT...AS THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT LOW CLOUDS REFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND PERSISTENT W/NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SOME
PATCHY CLOUDS...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN IN AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE
WITH THE WARMER MET MOS...ASSUMING SOME CLOUDS REDEVELOP...WITH
MIN TEMPS MAINLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME PATCHY FROST COULD
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
PERSIST. WED SHOULD BE MILDER...AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA
SLOWLY APPROACHES. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
LATE WED NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND
COULD TRIGGER SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START DRY AND END WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
BY SUNDAY.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SETS UP WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
MORNING AND TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORNING FOG STILL IMPACTING KALB...BUT HAS CLEARED OTHER TAF SITE.
EXPECT VFR WITH SCT LOW CLOUDS UNTIL LATE AFT WHEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM START TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS
EVENING A SOLID DECK OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH OVC050 IS EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES WITH MVFR CONDS
DEVELOPING BTWN 05Z AND 09Z. THE SHOWERS WILL FIRST IMPACT KGFL
AND BE LAST TO IMPACT KPOU.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. SOME
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
THEN FALL INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY...AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND THIRD AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SND/KL
HYDROLOGY...SND/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 151711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT STILL
ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD END TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON
CLEARING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE LINGERING FOG BURNED OFF AND
THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
HAS BROKEN UP. CURRENTLY HAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY WARMING FROM THEIR CHILLY START.
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE 295-300 K SURFACES WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
RATHER QUICKLY...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LAKE GEORGE REGION BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE
SARATOGA AND CAPITAL REGIONS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM...THEN PRESSING S
AND E INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN
DEVELOP...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS A RATHER FAST MOVER...AND IT
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SHOULD
BE MAINLY E OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY 8 AM. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...ESP AREAS E
OF THE HUDSON RIVER. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY
MIDDAY...CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME AREAS UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUDS PERSIST EVEN
LONGER...EVEN COOLER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

TUE NT-WED NT...TRICKY CALL FOR TUE NT...AS THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT LOW CLOUDS REFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND PERSISTENT W/NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SOME
PATCHY CLOUDS...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN IN AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE
WITH THE WARMER MET MOS...ASSUMING SOME CLOUDS REDEVELOP...WITH
MIN TEMPS MAINLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME PATCHY FROST COULD
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
PERSIST. WED SHOULD BE MILDER...AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE CANADA
SLOWLY APPROACHES. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
LATE WED NT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND
COULD TRIGGER SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START DRY AND END WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
BY SUNDAY.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SETS UP WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
MORNING AND TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORNING FOG STILL IMPACTING KALB...BUT HAS CLEARED OTHER TAF SITE.
EXPECT VFR WITH SCT LOW CLOUDS UNTIL LATE AFT WHEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM START TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS
EVENING A SOLID DECK OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH OVC050 IS EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES WITH MVFR CONDS
DEVELOPING BTWN 05Z AND 09Z. THE SHOWERS WILL FIRST IMPACT KGFL
AND BE LAST TO IMPACT KPOU.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. SOME
MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL AFTERNOON CLEARING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL
THEN FALL INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY...AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND THIRD AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SND/KL
HYDROLOGY...SND/KL








000
FXUS61 KBGM 151638
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1238 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH LATE WEEK KEEPING THE REGION DRY BUT COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM UPDATE...
SOME OF ONEIDA COUNTY MANAGED TO DIP INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS EARLY
THIS MORNING. ALSO...POCKETS OF LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE COUNTIES IN
NEPA REACHED THE UPPER 30S BECAUSE THE SKY STAYED CLEAR THERE MOST
OF THE NIGHT AND WE EVEN HAD A LIGHT FROST REPORTED ON CAR
WINDOW/GRASS IN SPRING BROOK PA.

THE PAPER THIN LAYER OF CLOUDS THAT PREVENTED ALMOST ALL PATCHY
FROST IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...HAS MIXED OUT THIS MORNING...WHICH
WILL ALLOW A DECENT PERIOD OF SUNSHINE INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKY GRIDS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK INCLUDING A BRIEF BATCH OF
SHOWERS SET TO MOVE THROUGH WITH FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 440 AM...SATELLITE PICS SHOW AN AREA OF BKN/OVC SKIES
FROM EASTERN LAKE ERIE TO THE HUDSON VALLEY. THIS IS FROM A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND 4K FT WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING MUCH LOWER THAN THE LOWER 40S. WITH THIS CLOUD
SHIELD EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL MID MORNING THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD FROST IS OVER AND ALL ADVISORIES ARE CANCELLED. ONLY
AREA WHERE PATCHY FROST MAY STILL OCCUR IS IN NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY AS ENOUGH BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT FOR TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S.

SFC HIGH PRES WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE
OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY PROVIDING A MODERATING SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AS THIS FLOW DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT/TUESDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF
CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS AS THIS
FEATURE PASSES, PRIMARILY FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT UNTIL DAYBREAK.
BY MID MORNING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS SHOULD BE OVER BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY KEEPING THE REGION DRY. MAX TEMPS ON WED WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SFC TROF WILL DROP SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA
BRINGING SOME INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW AND JUST SHOW SOME INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

A SCATTERED CU AND CIRRUS FIELD WILL BE OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH
SUNSET. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH
A MID DECK ACROSS OUR REGION AFTER SUNSET. SHOWERS, WITH ATTENDANT
MVFR CONDITIONS, WILL ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
3Z AND 8Z.

DRIER AIR WILL RETURN BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE AFTN TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT
ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 151638
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1238 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH LATE WEEK KEEPING THE REGION DRY BUT COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM UPDATE...
SOME OF ONEIDA COUNTY MANAGED TO DIP INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS EARLY
THIS MORNING. ALSO...POCKETS OF LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE COUNTIES IN
NEPA REACHED THE UPPER 30S BECAUSE THE SKY STAYED CLEAR THERE MOST
OF THE NIGHT AND WE EVEN HAD A LIGHT FROST REPORTED ON CAR
WINDOW/GRASS IN SPRING BROOK PA.

THE PAPER THIN LAYER OF CLOUDS THAT PREVENTED ALMOST ALL PATCHY
FROST IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...HAS MIXED OUT THIS MORNING...WHICH
WILL ALLOW A DECENT PERIOD OF SUNSHINE INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKY GRIDS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK INCLUDING A BRIEF BATCH OF
SHOWERS SET TO MOVE THROUGH WITH FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 440 AM...SATELLITE PICS SHOW AN AREA OF BKN/OVC SKIES
FROM EASTERN LAKE ERIE TO THE HUDSON VALLEY. THIS IS FROM A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND 4K FT WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING MUCH LOWER THAN THE LOWER 40S. WITH THIS CLOUD
SHIELD EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL MID MORNING THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD FROST IS OVER AND ALL ADVISORIES ARE CANCELLED. ONLY
AREA WHERE PATCHY FROST MAY STILL OCCUR IS IN NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY AS ENOUGH BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT FOR TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S.

SFC HIGH PRES WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE
OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY PROVIDING A MODERATING SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AS THIS FLOW DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT/TUESDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF
CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS AS THIS
FEATURE PASSES, PRIMARILY FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT UNTIL DAYBREAK.
BY MID MORNING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS SHOULD BE OVER BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY KEEPING THE REGION DRY. MAX TEMPS ON WED WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SFC TROF WILL DROP SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA
BRINGING SOME INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW AND JUST SHOW SOME INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

A SCATTERED CU AND CIRRUS FIELD WILL BE OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH
SUNSET. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH
A MID DECK ACROSS OUR REGION AFTER SUNSET. SHOWERS, WITH ATTENDANT
MVFR CONDITIONS, WILL ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
3Z AND 8Z.

DRIER AIR WILL RETURN BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE AFTN TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT
ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 151638
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1238 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH LATE WEEK KEEPING THE REGION DRY BUT COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM UPDATE...
SOME OF ONEIDA COUNTY MANAGED TO DIP INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS EARLY
THIS MORNING. ALSO...POCKETS OF LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE COUNTIES IN
NEPA REACHED THE UPPER 30S BECAUSE THE SKY STAYED CLEAR THERE MOST
OF THE NIGHT AND WE EVEN HAD A LIGHT FROST REPORTED ON CAR
WINDOW/GRASS IN SPRING BROOK PA.

THE PAPER THIN LAYER OF CLOUDS THAT PREVENTED ALMOST ALL PATCHY
FROST IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...HAS MIXED OUT THIS MORNING...WHICH
WILL ALLOW A DECENT PERIOD OF SUNSHINE INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKY GRIDS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK INCLUDING A BRIEF BATCH OF
SHOWERS SET TO MOVE THROUGH WITH FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 440 AM...SATELLITE PICS SHOW AN AREA OF BKN/OVC SKIES
FROM EASTERN LAKE ERIE TO THE HUDSON VALLEY. THIS IS FROM A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND 4K FT WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING MUCH LOWER THAN THE LOWER 40S. WITH THIS CLOUD
SHIELD EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL MID MORNING THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD FROST IS OVER AND ALL ADVISORIES ARE CANCELLED. ONLY
AREA WHERE PATCHY FROST MAY STILL OCCUR IS IN NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY AS ENOUGH BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT FOR TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S.

SFC HIGH PRES WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE
OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY PROVIDING A MODERATING SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AS THIS FLOW DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT/TUESDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF
CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS AS THIS
FEATURE PASSES, PRIMARILY FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT UNTIL DAYBREAK.
BY MID MORNING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS SHOULD BE OVER BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY KEEPING THE REGION DRY. MAX TEMPS ON WED WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SFC TROF WILL DROP SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA
BRINGING SOME INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW AND JUST SHOW SOME INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

A SCATTERED CU AND CIRRUS FIELD WILL BE OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH
SUNSET. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH
A MID DECK ACROSS OUR REGION AFTER SUNSET. SHOWERS, WITH ATTENDANT
MVFR CONDITIONS, WILL ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
3Z AND 8Z.

DRIER AIR WILL RETURN BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE AFTN TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT
ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 151638
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1238 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH LATE WEEK KEEPING THE REGION DRY BUT COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM UPDATE...
SOME OF ONEIDA COUNTY MANAGED TO DIP INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS EARLY
THIS MORNING. ALSO...POCKETS OF LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE COUNTIES IN
NEPA REACHED THE UPPER 30S BECAUSE THE SKY STAYED CLEAR THERE MOST
OF THE NIGHT AND WE EVEN HAD A LIGHT FROST REPORTED ON CAR
WINDOW/GRASS IN SPRING BROOK PA.

THE PAPER THIN LAYER OF CLOUDS THAT PREVENTED ALMOST ALL PATCHY
FROST IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...HAS MIXED OUT THIS MORNING...WHICH
WILL ALLOW A DECENT PERIOD OF SUNSHINE INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKY GRIDS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK INCLUDING A BRIEF BATCH OF
SHOWERS SET TO MOVE THROUGH WITH FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 440 AM...SATELLITE PICS SHOW AN AREA OF BKN/OVC SKIES
FROM EASTERN LAKE ERIE TO THE HUDSON VALLEY. THIS IS FROM A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND 4K FT WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING MUCH LOWER THAN THE LOWER 40S. WITH THIS CLOUD
SHIELD EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL MID MORNING THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD FROST IS OVER AND ALL ADVISORIES ARE CANCELLED. ONLY
AREA WHERE PATCHY FROST MAY STILL OCCUR IS IN NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY AS ENOUGH BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT FOR TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S.

SFC HIGH PRES WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE
OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY PROVIDING A MODERATING SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AS THIS FLOW DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT/TUESDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF
CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS AS THIS
FEATURE PASSES, PRIMARILY FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT UNTIL DAYBREAK.
BY MID MORNING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS SHOULD BE OVER BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY KEEPING THE REGION DRY. MAX TEMPS ON WED WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SFC TROF WILL DROP SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA
BRINGING SOME INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW AND JUST SHOW SOME INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

A SCATTERED CU AND CIRRUS FIELD WILL BE OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH
SUNSET. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH
A MID DECK ACROSS OUR REGION AFTER SUNSET. SHOWERS, WITH ATTENDANT
MVFR CONDITIONS, WILL ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
3Z AND 8Z.

DRIER AIR WILL RETURN BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE AFTN TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT
ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBTV 151630
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1230 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1228 PM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATING
SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS REACHING
61-66F IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON (STILL 4-7 DEGREES BELOW MID-
SEPTEMBER NORMALS). MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS NRN NY AND WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE ACROSS VT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A LIGHT S-SWLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP (5-10
MPH) ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT FLOW ON WRN PERIPHERY OF DEPARTING
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN THIS PAST NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AFFECTING TAF
SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060 AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY 14Z. THEN VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AND AN INCREASING MID DECK OF
CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK
AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS VFR/MVFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AFTER 06Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AT 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS






000
FXUS61 KBTV 151630
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1230 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1228 PM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATING
SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS REACHING
61-66F IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON (STILL 4-7 DEGREES BELOW MID-
SEPTEMBER NORMALS). MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS NRN NY AND WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE ACROSS VT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A LIGHT S-SWLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP (5-10
MPH) ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT FLOW ON WRN PERIPHERY OF DEPARTING
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN THIS PAST NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AFFECTING TAF
SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060 AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY 14Z. THEN VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AND AN INCREASING MID DECK OF
CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK
AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS VFR/MVFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AFTER 06Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AT 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS






000
FXUS61 KBTV 151630
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1230 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1228 PM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATING
SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS REACHING
61-66F IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON (STILL 4-7 DEGREES BELOW MID-
SEPTEMBER NORMALS). MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS NRN NY AND WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE ACROSS VT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A LIGHT S-SWLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP (5-10
MPH) ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT FLOW ON WRN PERIPHERY OF DEPARTING
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN THIS PAST NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AFFECTING TAF
SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060 AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY 14Z. THEN VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AND AN INCREASING MID DECK OF
CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK
AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS VFR/MVFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AFTER 06Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AT 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS






000
FXUS61 KBTV 151630
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1230 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1228 PM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATING
SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS REACHING
61-66F IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON (STILL 4-7 DEGREES BELOW MID-
SEPTEMBER NORMALS). MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS NRN NY AND WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE ACROSS VT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A LIGHT S-SWLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP (5-10
MPH) ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT FLOW ON WRN PERIPHERY OF DEPARTING
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN THIS PAST NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AFFECTING TAF
SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060 AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY 14Z. THEN VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AND AN INCREASING MID DECK OF
CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK
AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS VFR/MVFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AFTER 06Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AT 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS






000
FXUS61 KBGM 151608
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1208 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH LATE WEEK KEEPING THE REGION DRY BUT COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM UPDATE...
SOME OF ONEIDA COUNTY MANAGED TO DIP INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS EARLY
THIS MORNING. ALSO...POCKETS OF LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE COUNTIES IN
NEPA REACHED THE UPPER 30S BECAUSE THE SKY STAYED CLEAR THERE MOST
OF THE NIGHT AND WE EVEN HAD A LIGHT FROST REPORTED ON CAR
WINDOW/GRASS IN SPRING BROOK PA.

THE PAPER THIN LAYER OF CLOUDS THAT PREVENTED ALMOST ALL PATCHY
FROST IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...HAS MIXED OUT THIS MORNING...WHICH
WILL ALLOW A DECENT PERIOD OF SUNSHINE INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKY GRIDS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK INCLUDING A BRIEF BATCH OF
SHOWERS SET TO MOVE THROUGH WITH FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 440 AM...SATELLITE PICS SHOW AN AREA OF BKN/OVC SKIES
FROM EASTERN LAKE ERIE TO THE HUDSON VALLEY. THIS IS FROM A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND 4K FT WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING MUCH LOWER THAN THE LOWER 40S. WITH THIS CLOUD
SHIELD EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL MID MORNING THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD FROST IS OVER AND ALL ADVISORIES ARE CANCELLED. ONLY
AREA WHERE PATCHY FROST MAY STILL OCCUR IS IN NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY AS ENOUGH BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT FOR TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S.

SFC HIGH PRES WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE
OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY PROVIDING A MODERATING SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AS THIS FLOW DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT/TUESDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF
CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS AS THIS
FEATURE PASSES, PRIMARILY FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT UNTIL DAYBREAK.
BY MID MORNING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS SHOULD BE OVER BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY KEEPING THE REGION DRY. MAX TEMPS ON WED WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SFC TROF WILL DROP SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA
BRINGING SOME INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW AND JUST SHOW SOME INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR THROUGH 6Z TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT SHOWERS WILL DROP CIGS
AND VSBYS TO MVFR.

LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS WITH 5K FT CIGS NOW. THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE
OUT AND MIX OUT BY 15Z. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL COME IN THIS
AFTN. 4K FT CLOUDS WILL COME BACK THIS EVE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AROUND 4Z NY AND 7Z AVP. ABOUT 3 HOURS AFTER CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL DROP TO MVFR AS SHOWERS CONTINUE.

WINDS LGT/VRB EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SW AT 5 KTS TODAY.
TONIGHT S AT 5 KT SHIFTING TO W OR NW LATE.

OUTLOOK...

TUE MORNING...MVFR/IFR CONTINUING WITH SHOWERS ENDING.

TUE AFTN TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 151608
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1208 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH LATE WEEK KEEPING THE REGION DRY BUT COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM UPDATE...
SOME OF ONEIDA COUNTY MANAGED TO DIP INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS EARLY
THIS MORNING. ALSO...POCKETS OF LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE COUNTIES IN
NEPA REACHED THE UPPER 30S BECAUSE THE SKY STAYED CLEAR THERE MOST
OF THE NIGHT AND WE EVEN HAD A LIGHT FROST REPORTED ON CAR
WINDOW/GRASS IN SPRING BROOK PA.

THE PAPER THIN LAYER OF CLOUDS THAT PREVENTED ALMOST ALL PATCHY
FROST IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...HAS MIXED OUT THIS MORNING...WHICH
WILL ALLOW A DECENT PERIOD OF SUNSHINE INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKY GRIDS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK INCLUDING A BRIEF BATCH OF
SHOWERS SET TO MOVE THROUGH WITH FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 440 AM...SATELLITE PICS SHOW AN AREA OF BKN/OVC SKIES
FROM EASTERN LAKE ERIE TO THE HUDSON VALLEY. THIS IS FROM A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND 4K FT WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING MUCH LOWER THAN THE LOWER 40S. WITH THIS CLOUD
SHIELD EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL MID MORNING THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD FROST IS OVER AND ALL ADVISORIES ARE CANCELLED. ONLY
AREA WHERE PATCHY FROST MAY STILL OCCUR IS IN NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY AS ENOUGH BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT FOR TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S.

SFC HIGH PRES WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE
OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY PROVIDING A MODERATING SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AS THIS FLOW DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT/TUESDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF
CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS AS THIS
FEATURE PASSES, PRIMARILY FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT UNTIL DAYBREAK.
BY MID MORNING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS SHOULD BE OVER BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY KEEPING THE REGION DRY. MAX TEMPS ON WED WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SFC TROF WILL DROP SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA
BRINGING SOME INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW AND JUST SHOW SOME INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR THROUGH 6Z TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT SHOWERS WILL DROP CIGS
AND VSBYS TO MVFR.

LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS WITH 5K FT CIGS NOW. THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE
OUT AND MIX OUT BY 15Z. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL COME IN THIS
AFTN. 4K FT CLOUDS WILL COME BACK THIS EVE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AROUND 4Z NY AND 7Z AVP. ABOUT 3 HOURS AFTER CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL DROP TO MVFR AS SHOWERS CONTINUE.

WINDS LGT/VRB EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SW AT 5 KTS TODAY.
TONIGHT S AT 5 KT SHIFTING TO W OR NW LATE.

OUTLOOK...

TUE MORNING...MVFR/IFR CONTINUING WITH SHOWERS ENDING.

TUE AFTN TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 151608
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1208 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH LATE WEEK KEEPING THE REGION DRY BUT COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM UPDATE...
SOME OF ONEIDA COUNTY MANAGED TO DIP INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS EARLY
THIS MORNING. ALSO...POCKETS OF LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE COUNTIES IN
NEPA REACHED THE UPPER 30S BECAUSE THE SKY STAYED CLEAR THERE MOST
OF THE NIGHT AND WE EVEN HAD A LIGHT FROST REPORTED ON CAR
WINDOW/GRASS IN SPRING BROOK PA.

THE PAPER THIN LAYER OF CLOUDS THAT PREVENTED ALMOST ALL PATCHY
FROST IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...HAS MIXED OUT THIS MORNING...WHICH
WILL ALLOW A DECENT PERIOD OF SUNSHINE INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKY GRIDS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK INCLUDING A BRIEF BATCH OF
SHOWERS SET TO MOVE THROUGH WITH FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 440 AM...SATELLITE PICS SHOW AN AREA OF BKN/OVC SKIES
FROM EASTERN LAKE ERIE TO THE HUDSON VALLEY. THIS IS FROM A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND 4K FT WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING MUCH LOWER THAN THE LOWER 40S. WITH THIS CLOUD
SHIELD EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL MID MORNING THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD FROST IS OVER AND ALL ADVISORIES ARE CANCELLED. ONLY
AREA WHERE PATCHY FROST MAY STILL OCCUR IS IN NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY AS ENOUGH BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT FOR TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S.

SFC HIGH PRES WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE
OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY PROVIDING A MODERATING SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AS THIS FLOW DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT/TUESDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF
CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS AS THIS
FEATURE PASSES, PRIMARILY FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT UNTIL DAYBREAK.
BY MID MORNING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS SHOULD BE OVER BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY KEEPING THE REGION DRY. MAX TEMPS ON WED WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SFC TROF WILL DROP SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA
BRINGING SOME INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW AND JUST SHOW SOME INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR THROUGH 6Z TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT SHOWERS WILL DROP CIGS
AND VSBYS TO MVFR.

LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS WITH 5K FT CIGS NOW. THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE
OUT AND MIX OUT BY 15Z. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL COME IN THIS
AFTN. 4K FT CLOUDS WILL COME BACK THIS EVE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AROUND 4Z NY AND 7Z AVP. ABOUT 3 HOURS AFTER CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL DROP TO MVFR AS SHOWERS CONTINUE.

WINDS LGT/VRB EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SW AT 5 KTS TODAY.
TONIGHT S AT 5 KT SHIFTING TO W OR NW LATE.

OUTLOOK...

TUE MORNING...MVFR/IFR CONTINUING WITH SHOWERS ENDING.

TUE AFTN TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 151608
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1208 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH LATE WEEK KEEPING THE REGION DRY BUT COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM UPDATE...
SOME OF ONEIDA COUNTY MANAGED TO DIP INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS EARLY
THIS MORNING. ALSO...POCKETS OF LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE COUNTIES IN
NEPA REACHED THE UPPER 30S BECAUSE THE SKY STAYED CLEAR THERE MOST
OF THE NIGHT AND WE EVEN HAD A LIGHT FROST REPORTED ON CAR
WINDOW/GRASS IN SPRING BROOK PA.

THE PAPER THIN LAYER OF CLOUDS THAT PREVENTED ALMOST ALL PATCHY
FROST IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...HAS MIXED OUT THIS MORNING...WHICH
WILL ALLOW A DECENT PERIOD OF SUNSHINE INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKY GRIDS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK INCLUDING A BRIEF BATCH OF
SHOWERS SET TO MOVE THROUGH WITH FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 440 AM...SATELLITE PICS SHOW AN AREA OF BKN/OVC SKIES
FROM EASTERN LAKE ERIE TO THE HUDSON VALLEY. THIS IS FROM A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND 4K FT WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING MUCH LOWER THAN THE LOWER 40S. WITH THIS CLOUD
SHIELD EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL MID MORNING THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD FROST IS OVER AND ALL ADVISORIES ARE CANCELLED. ONLY
AREA WHERE PATCHY FROST MAY STILL OCCUR IS IN NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY AS ENOUGH BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT FOR TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S.

SFC HIGH PRES WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE
OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY PROVIDING A MODERATING SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AS THIS FLOW DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT/TUESDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF
CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS AS THIS
FEATURE PASSES, PRIMARILY FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT UNTIL DAYBREAK.
BY MID MORNING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS SHOULD BE OVER BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY KEEPING THE REGION DRY. MAX TEMPS ON WED WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SFC TROF WILL DROP SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA
BRINGING SOME INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW AND JUST SHOW SOME INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR THROUGH 6Z TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT SHOWERS WILL DROP CIGS
AND VSBYS TO MVFR.

LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS WITH 5K FT CIGS NOW. THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE
OUT AND MIX OUT BY 15Z. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL COME IN THIS
AFTN. 4K FT CLOUDS WILL COME BACK THIS EVE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AROUND 4Z NY AND 7Z AVP. ABOUT 3 HOURS AFTER CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL DROP TO MVFR AS SHOWERS CONTINUE.

WINDS LGT/VRB EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SW AT 5 KTS TODAY.
TONIGHT S AT 5 KT SHIFTING TO W OR NW LATE.

OUTLOOK...

TUE MORNING...MVFR/IFR CONTINUING WITH SHOWERS ENDING.

TUE AFTN TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 151531
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1131 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO PASS
EARLY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED INITIAL TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WERE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER AND E OF THE CWA TODAY.
WITH SUNRISE AND DOWNSLOPE...LOWER CLOUDS HAVE ERODED THIS
MORNING. THIS LEAVES MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH TEMPS A
BLEND OF THE GMOS25 AND THE MET. WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME LGT AND
VRB WITH SEA BREEZES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS
EVENING...PARTICULARLY WESTERN PORTIONS...THEN SHOWERS REACH THE
AREA AROUND DAWN. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...BUT OVERALL THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT. ENOUGH TO
KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST. EVENT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A COUPLE OF
HOURS OF RAIN THEN CLEARING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOTS OF DRY AIR
BEHIND SO IT WILL LIKELY BE SUNNY BY LATE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS
SOON AS NOONTIME ALONG AND W OF THE HUDSON. TEMPS AGAIN A BLEND OF
GMOS25 AND THE MET. SUBSIDENCE AND NW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN
SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH BEHIND THE FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BEFORE LIFTING UP INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE INDICATIONS BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS THAT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND THE TROUGH WILL
ONCE AGAIN REESTABLISH ITSELF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A
W/NW FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. A REINFORCING DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP WED NIGHT. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FRI INTO SAT THE FLOW WILL
BECOME ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND.

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH FOLLOWED A BLEND OF
WPC AND MOSGUIDE FOR TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS AND
LOWS WILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE NEXT SUN AS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFFSHORE INTO THIS EVENING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO CROSS THE TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z AND POSSIBLY THOUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR AFTER 9Z WITH ARRIVAL OF -SHRA...BUT PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT N WINDS SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SEA
BREEZES AFFECT ALL BUT KSWF/KHPN/KTEB. SPEEDS...EVEN WITH THE SEA
BREEZE SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW 10 KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE INS SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS HIGH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE REACHING LGA IS
MODERATE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS
MODERATE-HIGH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS
MODERATE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS
MODERATE-HIGH.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY MORNING...MVFR POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...VFR. NE WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH INCREASING SWELL FROM EDOUARD WILL BE NOTED ON THE
OCEAN...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS
WED-FRI. AS THE HIGH PASSES TO NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK A MODERATE
NE FLOW DEVELOPS. MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN
WATERS DURING THIS TIME DUE TO BOTH SE SWELLS FROM DISTANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD AND THE STRENGTHENING E/NE FLOW AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL IS FCST TUE. QPF IS FROM THE RFC.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW
NEAR TERM...JM/PW/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MALOIT/24
MARINE...JMC/PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 151531
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1131 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO PASS
EARLY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED INITIAL TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WERE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER AND E OF THE CWA TODAY.
WITH SUNRISE AND DOWNSLOPE...LOWER CLOUDS HAVE ERODED THIS
MORNING. THIS LEAVES MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH TEMPS A
BLEND OF THE GMOS25 AND THE MET. WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME LGT AND
VRB WITH SEA BREEZES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS
EVENING...PARTICULARLY WESTERN PORTIONS...THEN SHOWERS REACH THE
AREA AROUND DAWN. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...BUT OVERALL THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT. ENOUGH TO
KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST. EVENT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A COUPLE OF
HOURS OF RAIN THEN CLEARING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOTS OF DRY AIR
BEHIND SO IT WILL LIKELY BE SUNNY BY LATE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS
SOON AS NOONTIME ALONG AND W OF THE HUDSON. TEMPS AGAIN A BLEND OF
GMOS25 AND THE MET. SUBSIDENCE AND NW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN
SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH BEHIND THE FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BEFORE LIFTING UP INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE INDICATIONS BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS THAT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND THE TROUGH WILL
ONCE AGAIN REESTABLISH ITSELF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A
W/NW FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. A REINFORCING DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP WED NIGHT. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FRI INTO SAT THE FLOW WILL
BECOME ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND.

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH FOLLOWED A BLEND OF
WPC AND MOSGUIDE FOR TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS AND
LOWS WILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE NEXT SUN AS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFFSHORE INTO THIS EVENING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO CROSS THE TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z AND POSSIBLY THOUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR AFTER 9Z WITH ARRIVAL OF -SHRA...BUT PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT N WINDS SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SEA
BREEZES AFFECT ALL BUT KSWF/KHPN/KTEB. SPEEDS...EVEN WITH THE SEA
BREEZE SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW 10 KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE INS SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS HIGH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE REACHING LGA IS
MODERATE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS
MODERATE-HIGH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS
MODERATE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS
MODERATE-HIGH.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY MORNING...MVFR POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...VFR. NE WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH INCREASING SWELL FROM EDOUARD WILL BE NOTED ON THE
OCEAN...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS
WED-FRI. AS THE HIGH PASSES TO NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK A MODERATE
NE FLOW DEVELOPS. MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN
WATERS DURING THIS TIME DUE TO BOTH SE SWELLS FROM DISTANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD AND THE STRENGTHENING E/NE FLOW AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL IS FCST TUE. QPF IS FROM THE RFC.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW
NEAR TERM...JM/PW/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MALOIT/24
MARINE...JMC/PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 151531
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1131 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO PASS
EARLY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED INITIAL TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WERE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER AND E OF THE CWA TODAY.
WITH SUNRISE AND DOWNSLOPE...LOWER CLOUDS HAVE ERODED THIS
MORNING. THIS LEAVES MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH TEMPS A
BLEND OF THE GMOS25 AND THE MET. WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME LGT AND
VRB WITH SEA BREEZES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS
EVENING...PARTICULARLY WESTERN PORTIONS...THEN SHOWERS REACH THE
AREA AROUND DAWN. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...BUT OVERALL THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT. ENOUGH TO
KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST. EVENT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A COUPLE OF
HOURS OF RAIN THEN CLEARING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOTS OF DRY AIR
BEHIND SO IT WILL LIKELY BE SUNNY BY LATE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS
SOON AS NOONTIME ALONG AND W OF THE HUDSON. TEMPS AGAIN A BLEND OF
GMOS25 AND THE MET. SUBSIDENCE AND NW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN
SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH BEHIND THE FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BEFORE LIFTING UP INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE INDICATIONS BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS THAT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND THE TROUGH WILL
ONCE AGAIN REESTABLISH ITSELF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A
W/NW FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. A REINFORCING DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP WED NIGHT. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FRI INTO SAT THE FLOW WILL
BECOME ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND.

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH FOLLOWED A BLEND OF
WPC AND MOSGUIDE FOR TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS AND
LOWS WILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE NEXT SUN AS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFFSHORE INTO THIS EVENING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO CROSS THE TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z AND POSSIBLY THOUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR AFTER 9Z WITH ARRIVAL OF -SHRA...BUT PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT N WINDS SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SEA
BREEZES AFFECT ALL BUT KSWF/KHPN/KTEB. SPEEDS...EVEN WITH THE SEA
BREEZE SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW 10 KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE INS SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS HIGH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE REACHING LGA IS
MODERATE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS
MODERATE-HIGH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS
MODERATE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS
MODERATE-HIGH.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY MORNING...MVFR POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...VFR. NE WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH INCREASING SWELL FROM EDOUARD WILL BE NOTED ON THE
OCEAN...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS
WED-FRI. AS THE HIGH PASSES TO NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK A MODERATE
NE FLOW DEVELOPS. MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN
WATERS DURING THIS TIME DUE TO BOTH SE SWELLS FROM DISTANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD AND THE STRENGTHENING E/NE FLOW AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL IS FCST TUE. QPF IS FROM THE RFC.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW
NEAR TERM...JM/PW/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MALOIT/24
MARINE...JMC/PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 151531
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1131 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO PASS
EARLY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED INITIAL TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WERE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER AND E OF THE CWA TODAY.
WITH SUNRISE AND DOWNSLOPE...LOWER CLOUDS HAVE ERODED THIS
MORNING. THIS LEAVES MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH TEMPS A
BLEND OF THE GMOS25 AND THE MET. WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME LGT AND
VRB WITH SEA BREEZES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS
EVENING...PARTICULARLY WESTERN PORTIONS...THEN SHOWERS REACH THE
AREA AROUND DAWN. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...BUT OVERALL THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT. ENOUGH TO
KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST. EVENT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A COUPLE OF
HOURS OF RAIN THEN CLEARING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOTS OF DRY AIR
BEHIND SO IT WILL LIKELY BE SUNNY BY LATE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS
SOON AS NOONTIME ALONG AND W OF THE HUDSON. TEMPS AGAIN A BLEND OF
GMOS25 AND THE MET. SUBSIDENCE AND NW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN
SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH BEHIND THE FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BEFORE LIFTING UP INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE INDICATIONS BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS THAT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND THE TROUGH WILL
ONCE AGAIN REESTABLISH ITSELF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A
W/NW FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. A REINFORCING DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP WED NIGHT. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FRI INTO SAT THE FLOW WILL
BECOME ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND.

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH FOLLOWED A BLEND OF
WPC AND MOSGUIDE FOR TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS AND
LOWS WILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE NEXT SUN AS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFFSHORE INTO THIS EVENING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO CROSS THE TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z AND POSSIBLY THOUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR AFTER 9Z WITH ARRIVAL OF -SHRA...BUT PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT N WINDS SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SEA
BREEZES AFFECT ALL BUT KSWF/KHPN/KTEB. SPEEDS...EVEN WITH THE SEA
BREEZE SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW 10 KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE INS SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS HIGH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE REACHING LGA IS
MODERATE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS
MODERATE-HIGH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS
MODERATE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD
BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE OCCURRING IS
MODERATE-HIGH.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY MORNING...MVFR POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY...VFR. NE WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH INCREASING SWELL FROM EDOUARD WILL BE NOTED ON THE
OCEAN...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS
WED-FRI. AS THE HIGH PASSES TO NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK A MODERATE
NE FLOW DEVELOPS. MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN
WATERS DURING THIS TIME DUE TO BOTH SE SWELLS FROM DISTANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD AND THE STRENGTHENING E/NE FLOW AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL IS FCST TUE. QPF IS FROM THE RFC.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW
NEAR TERM...JM/PW/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MALOIT/24
MARINE...JMC/PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC







000
FXUS61 KBUF 151437
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1037 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY WILL END AS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
BEFORE MORE SEASONABLE READINGS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...ALBEIT
ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS OVERCAST SKIES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS LATE MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASE IN DAYTIME MIXING. ELSEWHERE MUCH OF
THE REGION IS MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE TIME BEING. CLOUDS AHEAD OF A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A DECENT CAP BETWEEN
850-700MB WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTEAD THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DRIVEN BY STRONG PV
ADVECTION AS THE CORE OF THE PV ANOMALY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. THE
RESULTING SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW
YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY BLOSSOMING ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH 850MB
TEMPS TO AROUND +6C...TRANSLATING TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S
WITH WARMEST AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY
WHERE LIMITED DOWNSLOPING MAY ADD A DEGREE OR TWO...PUSHING READINGS
TOWARDS THE MID-60S. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS BOTTOMING
OUT AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK...WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT QUICKLY
SHIFTS EAST TO NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND WITH
DRY AIR HELPING TO CLEAR SKIES FOR SOME SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH THEN OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW MID-SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

A MOISTURE-STARVED SECONDARY COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY APPROACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH A POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE RIPPLING ALONG THE FRONT
KEEPS CONCERN FOR A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY MORNING THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BEFORE
WASHING OUT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAKENING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER
LAKES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH CLEARING AND DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO THE
NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 OR NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK TO THE MID-UPPER 30S INLAND TO
MID 40S NEAR THE LAKES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
FROST CONCERNS AND PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

ON FRIDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE GULF OF
MAINE. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DRY DAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AS A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN
FLOW OF MILDER AIR BEGINS OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN CANADA.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS TO OUR
REGION...THE CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL HELP TO
PUMP EVEN WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO FINALLY CLIMB BACK TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CIGS THAT WERE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT ARE CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS
OF CLEARING OUT ACROSS WNY THIS MORNING. WHILE WE WILL SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CLEARING THIS MORNING...MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM 00-03Z ONWARDS. WEST-NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL GENERATE LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR EARLY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS LOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL BRING 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES ON LAKE ERIE...AND ON LAKE
ONTARIO A LONGER FETCH TO THE LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES.
BASED ON THIS ALONG WITH WINDS NEARING 20 KNOTS WILL HOIST A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAKE ONTARIO FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. .

WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/WOOD
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...THOMAS/WOOD







000
FXUS61 KBUF 151437
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1037 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY WILL END AS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
BEFORE MORE SEASONABLE READINGS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...ALBEIT
ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS OVERCAST SKIES OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS LATE MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASE IN DAYTIME MIXING. ELSEWHERE MUCH OF
THE REGION IS MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE TIME BEING. CLOUDS AHEAD OF A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A DECENT CAP BETWEEN
850-700MB WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTEAD THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DRIVEN BY STRONG PV
ADVECTION AS THE CORE OF THE PV ANOMALY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. THE
RESULTING SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW
YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY BLOSSOMING ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH 850MB
TEMPS TO AROUND +6C...TRANSLATING TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S
WITH WARMEST AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY
WHERE LIMITED DOWNSLOPING MAY ADD A DEGREE OR TWO...PUSHING READINGS
TOWARDS THE MID-60S. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS BOTTOMING
OUT AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK...WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT QUICKLY
SHIFTS EAST TO NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND WITH
DRY AIR HELPING TO CLEAR SKIES FOR SOME SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH THEN OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW MID-SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

A MOISTURE-STARVED SECONDARY COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY APPROACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH A POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE RIPPLING ALONG THE FRONT
KEEPS CONCERN FOR A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY MORNING THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BEFORE
WASHING OUT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAKENING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER
LAKES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH CLEARING AND DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO THE
NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 OR NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK TO THE MID-UPPER 30S INLAND TO
MID 40S NEAR THE LAKES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
FROST CONCERNS AND PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

ON FRIDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE GULF OF
MAINE. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DRY DAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AS A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN
FLOW OF MILDER AIR BEGINS OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN CANADA.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS TO OUR
REGION...THE CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL HELP TO
PUMP EVEN WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO FINALLY CLIMB BACK TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CIGS THAT WERE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT ARE CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS
OF CLEARING OUT ACROSS WNY THIS MORNING. WHILE WE WILL SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CLEARING THIS MORNING...MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM 00-03Z ONWARDS. WEST-NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL GENERATE LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR EARLY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS LOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL BRING 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES ON LAKE ERIE...AND ON LAKE
ONTARIO A LONGER FETCH TO THE LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES.
BASED ON THIS ALONG WITH WINDS NEARING 20 KNOTS WILL HOIST A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAKE ONTARIO FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. .

WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/WOOD
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...THOMAS/WOOD








000
FXUS61 KBTV 151422
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1022 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1013 AM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. REMAINING VALLEY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT BY 15Z...LEADING
TO A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. AIR MASS WILL BE
MODERATING SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
REACHING 60-65F IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON (STILL 5-8 DEGREES
BELOW MID-SEPTEMBER NORMALS). MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ARE ALREADY OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS NRN NY AND WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE ACROSS VT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A LIGHT S-SWLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP (5-10 MPH) ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT FLOW ON WRN PERIPHERY
OF DEPARTING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN THIS PAST NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AFFECTING TAF
SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060 AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY 14Z. THEN VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AND AN INCREASING MID DECK OF
CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK
AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS VFR/MVFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AFTER 06Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AT 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 151422
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1022 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1013 AM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. REMAINING VALLEY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT BY 15Z...LEADING
TO A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. AIR MASS WILL BE
MODERATING SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
REACHING 60-65F IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON (STILL 5-8 DEGREES
BELOW MID-SEPTEMBER NORMALS). MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ARE ALREADY OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS NRN NY AND WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE ACROSS VT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A LIGHT S-SWLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP (5-10 MPH) ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT FLOW ON WRN PERIPHERY
OF DEPARTING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN THIS PAST NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AFFECTING TAF
SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060 AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY 14Z. THEN VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AND AN INCREASING MID DECK OF
CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK
AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS VFR/MVFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AFTER 06Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AT 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 151422
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1022 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1013 AM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. REMAINING VALLEY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT BY 15Z...LEADING
TO A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. AIR MASS WILL BE
MODERATING SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
REACHING 60-65F IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON (STILL 5-8 DEGREES
BELOW MID-SEPTEMBER NORMALS). MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ARE ALREADY OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS NRN NY AND WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE ACROSS VT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A LIGHT S-SWLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP (5-10 MPH) ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT FLOW ON WRN PERIPHERY
OF DEPARTING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN THIS PAST NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AFFECTING TAF
SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060 AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY 14Z. THEN VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AND AN INCREASING MID DECK OF
CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK
AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS VFR/MVFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AFTER 06Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AT 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 151422
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1022 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1013 AM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. REMAINING VALLEY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT BY 15Z...LEADING
TO A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. AIR MASS WILL BE
MODERATING SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
REACHING 60-65F IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON (STILL 5-8 DEGREES
BELOW MID-SEPTEMBER NORMALS). MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ARE ALREADY OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS NRN NY AND WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE ACROSS VT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A LIGHT S-SWLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP (5-10 MPH) ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT FLOW ON WRN PERIPHERY
OF DEPARTING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN THIS PAST NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY FOR CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY...SO
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C
DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY
OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AFFECTING TAF
SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060 AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY 14Z. THEN VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AND AN INCREASING MID DECK OF
CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH
LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK
AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS VFR/MVFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AFTER 06Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AT 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KOKX 151408
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1008 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO PASS
EARLY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED INITIAL TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WERE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER AND E OF THE CWA TODAY.
WITH SUNRISE AND DOWNSLOPE...LOWER CLOUDS HAVE ERODED THIS
MORNING. THIS LEAVES MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH TEMPS A
BLEND OF THE GMOS25 AND THE MET. WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME LGT AND
VRB WITH SEA BREEZES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS EVE...PARTICULARLY WRN
PORTIONS...THEN SHOWERS REACH THE AREA AROUND DAWN. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH ON PCPN AMOUNTS. THE NAM IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT OVERALL THE MODEL
SOLNS ARE CONSISTENT. ENOUGH TO KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST. EVENT
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A COUPLE OF HOURS OF RAIN THEN CLEARING BEHIND
THE CDFNT. LOTS OF DRY AIR BEHIND SO IT WILL LIKELY BE SUNNY BY
LATE AFTN...POSSIBLY AS SOON AS NOONTIME ALONG AND W OF THE
HUDSON. TEMPS AGAIN A BLEND OF GMOS25 AND THE MET. SUBSIDENCE AND
NW FLOW THRU THE COLUMN SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH BEHIND THE FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BEFORE LIFTING UP INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE INDICATIONS BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS THAT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND THE TROF WILL ONCE AGAIN
REESTABLISH ITSELF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A
W/NW FLOW ALOFT AND NLY FLOW AT THE SFC. A REINFORCING DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP WED NIGHT. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FRI INTO SAT THE FLOW WILL BECOME
ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND.

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH FOLLOWED A BLEND OF WPC
AND MOSGUIDE FOR TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS AND LOWS
WILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WARMEST
DAY LOOKS TO BE NEXT SUN AS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY WITH A SLY FLOW DEVELOPING. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH 06Z TUE. SCT-BKN CIGS BETWEEN 4-5K THIS MORNING SHOULD
DECREASE WITH HEATING AND MIXING.

LIGHT N WINDS SHOULD PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE SEA BREEZES AFFECT ALL BUT KSWF/KHPN/KTEB.
SPEEDS...EVEN WITH THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW 10 KT.

SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT WITH THE COLD
FRONT. TIMING MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED 1-2 HOURS. BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDS...MAINLY CIGS MAY ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: N WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE SW AFT
16Z...THEN GIVE WAY TO SEABREEZE WITH S WINDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: N WINDS MAY RANGE BETWEEN 040 AND 060 AT
TIMES THROUGH 18Z OR SO...THEN WINDS BECOME S-SW. UNCERTAIN IF
SEABREEZE WILL REACH THE AIRFIELD.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: N WINDS BECOME VRB EARLY THIS AFTN...WITH
SEABREEZE AND SE WINDS EXPECTED IN IMPACT THE AIRFIELD BETWEEN
19Z AND 21Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z.
WINDS MAY BECOME SWLY AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN THAT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE. SW WINDS G15-20KT BEHIND FROPA IN THE
MORNING.
.TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR...N-NW G15-20KT POSSIBLE LATE WED AFTN/EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH INCREASING SWELL FROM EDOUARD WILL BE NOTED ON THE
OCEAN...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS THRU TUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS
WED-FRI. AS THE HIGH PASSES TO NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK A
MODERATE NE FLOW DEVELOPS. MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OCEAN WATERS DURING THIS TIME DUE TO BOTH SE SWELLS FROM DISTANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD AND THE STRENGTHENING E/NE FLOW AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL IS FCST TUE. QPF IS FROM THE RFC.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM/PW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DW/PW
AVIATION...
MARINE...DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC






000
FXUS61 KOKX 151408
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1008 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO PASS
EARLY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED INITIAL TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WERE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER AND E OF THE CWA TODAY.
WITH SUNRISE AND DOWNSLOPE...LOWER CLOUDS HAVE ERODED THIS
MORNING. THIS LEAVES MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH TEMPS A
BLEND OF THE GMOS25 AND THE MET. WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME LGT AND
VRB WITH SEA BREEZES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS EVE...PARTICULARLY WRN
PORTIONS...THEN SHOWERS REACH THE AREA AROUND DAWN. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH ON PCPN AMOUNTS. THE NAM IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT OVERALL THE MODEL
SOLNS ARE CONSISTENT. ENOUGH TO KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST. EVENT
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A COUPLE OF HOURS OF RAIN THEN CLEARING BEHIND
THE CDFNT. LOTS OF DRY AIR BEHIND SO IT WILL LIKELY BE SUNNY BY
LATE AFTN...POSSIBLY AS SOON AS NOONTIME ALONG AND W OF THE
HUDSON. TEMPS AGAIN A BLEND OF GMOS25 AND THE MET. SUBSIDENCE AND
NW FLOW THRU THE COLUMN SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH BEHIND THE FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BEFORE LIFTING UP INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE INDICATIONS BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS THAT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND THE TROF WILL ONCE AGAIN
REESTABLISH ITSELF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A
W/NW FLOW ALOFT AND NLY FLOW AT THE SFC. A REINFORCING DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP WED NIGHT. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FRI INTO SAT THE FLOW WILL BECOME
ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND.

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH FOLLOWED A BLEND OF WPC
AND MOSGUIDE FOR TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS AND LOWS
WILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WARMEST
DAY LOOKS TO BE NEXT SUN AS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY WITH A SLY FLOW DEVELOPING. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH 06Z TUE. SCT-BKN CIGS BETWEEN 4-5K THIS MORNING SHOULD
DECREASE WITH HEATING AND MIXING.

LIGHT N WINDS SHOULD PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE SEA BREEZES AFFECT ALL BUT KSWF/KHPN/KTEB.
SPEEDS...EVEN WITH THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW 10 KT.

SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT WITH THE COLD
FRONT. TIMING MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED 1-2 HOURS. BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDS...MAINLY CIGS MAY ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: N WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE SW AFT
16Z...THEN GIVE WAY TO SEABREEZE WITH S WINDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: N WINDS MAY RANGE BETWEEN 040 AND 060 AT
TIMES THROUGH 18Z OR SO...THEN WINDS BECOME S-SW. UNCERTAIN IF
SEABREEZE WILL REACH THE AIRFIELD.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: N WINDS BECOME VRB EARLY THIS AFTN...WITH
SEABREEZE AND SE WINDS EXPECTED IN IMPACT THE AIRFIELD BETWEEN
19Z AND 21Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z.
WINDS MAY BECOME SWLY AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN THAT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUE...MVFR POSSIBLE. SW WINDS G15-20KT BEHIND FROPA IN THE
MORNING.
.TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR...N-NW G15-20KT POSSIBLE LATE WED AFTN/EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH INCREASING SWELL FROM EDOUARD WILL BE NOTED ON THE
OCEAN...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS THRU TUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS
WED-FRI. AS THE HIGH PASSES TO NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK A
MODERATE NE FLOW DEVELOPS. MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OCEAN WATERS DURING THIS TIME DUE TO BOTH SE SWELLS FROM DISTANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD AND THE STRENGTHENING E/NE FLOW AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL IS FCST TUE. QPF IS FROM THE RFC.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM/PW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DW/PW
AVIATION...
MARINE...DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 151354
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
954 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH LATE WEEK KEEPING THE REGION DRY BUT COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM UPDATE...
SOME OF ONEIDA COUNTY MANAGED TO DIP INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS EARLY
THIS MORNING. ALSO...POCKETS OF LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE COUNTIES IN
NEPA REACHED THE UPPER 30S BECAUSE THE SKY STAYED CLEAR THERE MOST
OF THE NIGHT AND WE EVEN HAD A LIGHT FROST REPORTED ON CAR
WINDOW/GRASS IN SPRING BROOK PA.

THE PAPER THIN LAYER OF CLOUDS THAT PREVENTED ALMOST ALL PATCHY
FROST IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...HAS MIXED OUT THIS MORNING...WHICH
WILL ALLOW A DECENT PERIOD OF SUNSHINE INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKY GRIDS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK INCLUDING A BRIEF BATCH OF
SHOWERS SET TO MOVE THROUGH WITH FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 440 AM...S