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000
FXUS61 KBUF 250247
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1047 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...LOOK FOR VERY WARM AND GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST...WARM AND MOIST RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER. WITH DEW POINTS
RUNNING THE MID 40S...ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND. KBUF COMPOSITE
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME RETURNS ALOFT BUT WITH NO RAIN REPORTED
BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...OR SHOWING UP ON THE LOWER ELEVATION
SCANS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AREAS WERE ISOLATED
SPRINKLES DEVELOP FROM BUFFALO ACROSS TO THE FINGER LAKES.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...SATURATION WILL
BE EASIER TO ACHIEVE AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT. ALSO WITH THE WARMER AIR SURGING NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION...THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

MEMORIAL DAY WILL USHER IN A RETURN TO SUMMER AS THE AREA WILL BE
LOCATED FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE/MID-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LARGELY STYMIE ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH INCREASING
DEWPOINTS ON RETURN FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS FIRING
ALONG THE LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY OTHER
AREA WHERE WE MAY SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...CLOSER TO THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH READINGS HITTING THE MID
TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY WHERE SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP BUMP READINGS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE ONLY
AREAS THAT MAY REMAIN IN THE 70S WILL BE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE
COOLER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE A SYNOPTICALLY ENHANCED
LAKE BREEZE AND CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING...WITH NO
CHANGES.

MONDAY NIGHT A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL FINISH ITS NORTHWARD EXIT
THROUGH THE CWA USHERING IN WARMER...AND MORE HUMID AIR. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
MONDAY EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...FORMING TO THE LEE OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY
SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN
WARM OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY WILL HAVE A TASTE OF SUMMER TO THE DAY AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE.
INITIALLY THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED...WITH SUNSHINE AND
CLOUDS AROUND. WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +15C SURFACE HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING SBCAPES 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS
INSTABILITY...AND THE WEAKENING OF THE CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH WIND ALOFT...0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS TO ALLOW THESE STORMS TO
GROW...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE INLAND STRONG STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/LAKE
ERIE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH NO CHANGE
IN AIRMASS THE AIR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE
PRIOR NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS...AND EVEN SOME LIKELY POPS AS MORE FAVORABLE LIFTING WILL BE
FOUND THIS DAY IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COASTLINE EARLY
WEEK...WILL NOW BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TO START THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW SUBTLE SHORTWAVES TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
INLAND AND ALONG LAKE BREEZES WHERE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AIDED BY
LIFT FROM LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW EASTWARD WE SHOULD
NOT BE AS CAPPED AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR STORMS TO BREW. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES POPS IN
THE GRIDS...THOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND 12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A COLD
FRONT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. DIFFERENCES ARE THAT THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE SURFACE WAVES ON
THE FRONT IS SLOWER. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCES POPS FOR BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT NONE THE LESS THIS FRONT
REPRESENTS THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. WARMEST PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL TURN BRIEFLY
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO A MID-LEVEL DECK AROUND 10KFT
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE KBUF/KROC AREA...HOWEVER DRY AIR IN THE
LOW-LEVELS SHOULD KEEP FLIGHT CONDITIONS VFR. AS THE FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...KART SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AFTER 08Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KART WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PUMP UP SFC
DEWPOINTS ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ALONG LAKE ERIE LAKE
BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN SHOULD
LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND BACK
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL KEEP A
RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE RESULT WILL BE
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS FOR BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH WAVES
AVERAGING 2 FEET OR LESS.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK...AND THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE GENERALLY SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED... THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR
NEARLY DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
CHOP...PARTICULARLY ON THE EAST ENDS OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...CHURCH/WOOD
MARINE...CHURCH/WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 250247
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1047 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...LOOK FOR VERY WARM AND GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST...WARM AND MOIST RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER. WITH DEW POINTS
RUNNING THE MID 40S...ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND. KBUF COMPOSITE
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME RETURNS ALOFT BUT WITH NO RAIN REPORTED
BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...OR SHOWING UP ON THE LOWER ELEVATION
SCANS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AREAS WERE ISOLATED
SPRINKLES DEVELOP FROM BUFFALO ACROSS TO THE FINGER LAKES.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...SATURATION WILL
BE EASIER TO ACHIEVE AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT. ALSO WITH THE WARMER AIR SURGING NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION...THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

MEMORIAL DAY WILL USHER IN A RETURN TO SUMMER AS THE AREA WILL BE
LOCATED FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE/MID-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LARGELY STYMIE ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH INCREASING
DEWPOINTS ON RETURN FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS FIRING
ALONG THE LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY OTHER
AREA WHERE WE MAY SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...CLOSER TO THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH READINGS HITTING THE MID
TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY WHERE SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP BUMP READINGS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE ONLY
AREAS THAT MAY REMAIN IN THE 70S WILL BE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE
COOLER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE A SYNOPTICALLY ENHANCED
LAKE BREEZE AND CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING...WITH NO
CHANGES.

MONDAY NIGHT A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL FINISH ITS NORTHWARD EXIT
THROUGH THE CWA USHERING IN WARMER...AND MORE HUMID AIR. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
MONDAY EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...FORMING TO THE LEE OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY
SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN
WARM OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY WILL HAVE A TASTE OF SUMMER TO THE DAY AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE.
INITIALLY THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED...WITH SUNSHINE AND
CLOUDS AROUND. WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +15C SURFACE HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING SBCAPES 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS
INSTABILITY...AND THE WEAKENING OF THE CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH WIND ALOFT...0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS TO ALLOW THESE STORMS TO
GROW...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE INLAND STRONG STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/LAKE
ERIE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH NO CHANGE
IN AIRMASS THE AIR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE
PRIOR NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS...AND EVEN SOME LIKELY POPS AS MORE FAVORABLE LIFTING WILL BE
FOUND THIS DAY IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COASTLINE EARLY
WEEK...WILL NOW BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TO START THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW SUBTLE SHORTWAVES TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
INLAND AND ALONG LAKE BREEZES WHERE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AIDED BY
LIFT FROM LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW EASTWARD WE SHOULD
NOT BE AS CAPPED AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR STORMS TO BREW. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES POPS IN
THE GRIDS...THOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND 12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A COLD
FRONT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. DIFFERENCES ARE THAT THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE SURFACE WAVES ON
THE FRONT IS SLOWER. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCES POPS FOR BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT NONE THE LESS THIS FRONT
REPRESENTS THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. WARMEST PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL TURN BRIEFLY
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO A MID-LEVEL DECK AROUND 10KFT
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE KBUF/KROC AREA...HOWEVER DRY AIR IN THE
LOW-LEVELS SHOULD KEEP FLIGHT CONDITIONS VFR. AS THE FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...KART SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AFTER 08Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KART WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PUMP UP SFC
DEWPOINTS ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ALONG LAKE ERIE LAKE
BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN SHOULD
LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND BACK
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL KEEP A
RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE RESULT WILL BE
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS FOR BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH WAVES
AVERAGING 2 FEET OR LESS.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK...AND THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE GENERALLY SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED... THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR
NEARLY DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
CHOP...PARTICULARLY ON THE EAST ENDS OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...CHURCH/WOOD
MARINE...CHURCH/WOOD


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 250246
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1046 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE HIGH THEN MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO T/TD AND SKY
OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST OVER THE TRI- STATE...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS/DISSIPATION TONIGHT. SO GOING
WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY...THEN
SLIDES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
KEEP THINGS DRY.

DO EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CIRRUS SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST. FOR HIGHS TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF
MIXING DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF WARMER MET/MAV/EKD GUIDANCE. HIGHS
SHOULD BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...WHICH WOULD
PLACE THEM AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SHOULD SEE GUSTY
WINDS WITH SEABREEZE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
TO 30 MPH...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE NEARSHORE. A
40-45KT JET AT 1000 FT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE GUSTINESS OF THE
SEABREEZE.

MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR MONDAY NIGHT IS WHETHER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORM WITH THIRD NIGHT OF ONSHORE FLOW. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE
BACKED AWAY FROM THIS IDEA...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF DEBRIS
CIRRUS WORKING ITS WAY UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE - SO WENT WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER. FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED...WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER EAST COAST RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SOUTHERLY
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH WELL ESTABLISHED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DIURNALLY DRIVE AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AROUND THE
HIGH AS ENERGY MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY...ALLOWING A COUPLE OF WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS RESULTS IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA WHILE THE SOUTHERN
FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THEN WITH
THE WEAK FLOW THE NEXT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS
RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING
MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

S-SW FLOW LESS THAN 10 KT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. S-SW WINDS
INCREASE AFT 12Z MON WITH GUSTS RETURNING AS WELL. GUSTS 20-30KT
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM EACH
AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY NW OF CITY TERMINALS TUE AND WED. COASTAL
SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...WITH A PERSISTENT SW FLOW.

WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE PASSAGE OF A 40-45 KT JET AT 1000 FT. AT
THE SAME TIME WILL BE FAIRLY DEEPLY INVERTED...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE
THE AMOUNT OF THIS JET THAT MIXES DOWN...BUT WITH THE WIND MAX AT
OR JUST UNDER THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE...MORE MIXING COULD OCCUR IN
THIS SCENARIO THAN ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT.

BASED ON THIS HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 18Z
MONDAY-10Z TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT AS WELL. ON THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTS TO 20 KT...WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT
THAT 25 KT GUSTS END UP BEING MORE FREQUENT THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS UNDER SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
HOWEVER...NEARSHORE WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

ON GOING SMALL CRAFT SEAS TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WATERS AND A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
5 FT THURSDAY NIGHT. SUB SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO LATE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE 10-15 PERCENT HIGHER ON MON THAN
TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL BE 10-15 MPH STRONGER...INCLUDING THE
GUSTS. IF DEEPER MIXING OCCURS THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN
THE POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD COULD BE REALIZED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ345-350-353-355.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 250246
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1046 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE HIGH THEN MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO T/TD AND SKY
OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST OVER THE TRI- STATE...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS/DISSIPATION TONIGHT. SO GOING
WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY...THEN
SLIDES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
KEEP THINGS DRY.

DO EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CIRRUS SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST. FOR HIGHS TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF
MIXING DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF WARMER MET/MAV/EKD GUIDANCE. HIGHS
SHOULD BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...WHICH WOULD
PLACE THEM AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SHOULD SEE GUSTY
WINDS WITH SEABREEZE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
TO 30 MPH...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE NEARSHORE. A
40-45KT JET AT 1000 FT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE GUSTINESS OF THE
SEABREEZE.

MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR MONDAY NIGHT IS WHETHER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORM WITH THIRD NIGHT OF ONSHORE FLOW. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE
BACKED AWAY FROM THIS IDEA...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF DEBRIS
CIRRUS WORKING ITS WAY UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE - SO WENT WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER. FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED...WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER EAST COAST RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SOUTHERLY
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH WELL ESTABLISHED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DIURNALLY DRIVE AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AROUND THE
HIGH AS ENERGY MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY...ALLOWING A COUPLE OF WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS RESULTS IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA WHILE THE SOUTHERN
FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THEN WITH
THE WEAK FLOW THE NEXT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS
RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING
MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

S-SW FLOW LESS THAN 10 KT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. S-SW WINDS
INCREASE AFT 12Z MON WITH GUSTS RETURNING AS WELL. GUSTS 20-30KT
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM EACH
AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY NW OF CITY TERMINALS TUE AND WED. COASTAL
SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...WITH A PERSISTENT SW FLOW.

WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE PASSAGE OF A 40-45 KT JET AT 1000 FT. AT
THE SAME TIME WILL BE FAIRLY DEEPLY INVERTED...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE
THE AMOUNT OF THIS JET THAT MIXES DOWN...BUT WITH THE WIND MAX AT
OR JUST UNDER THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE...MORE MIXING COULD OCCUR IN
THIS SCENARIO THAN ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT.

BASED ON THIS HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 18Z
MONDAY-10Z TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT AS WELL. ON THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTS TO 20 KT...WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT
THAT 25 KT GUSTS END UP BEING MORE FREQUENT THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS UNDER SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
HOWEVER...NEARSHORE WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

ON GOING SMALL CRAFT SEAS TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WATERS AND A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
5 FT THURSDAY NIGHT. SUB SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO LATE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE 10-15 PERCENT HIGHER ON MON THAN
TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL BE 10-15 MPH STRONGER...INCLUDING THE
GUSTS. IF DEEPER MIXING OCCURS THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN
THE POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD COULD BE REALIZED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ345-350-353-355.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 250246
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1046 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE HIGH THEN MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO T/TD AND SKY
OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST OVER THE TRI- STATE...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS/DISSIPATION TONIGHT. SO GOING
WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY...THEN
SLIDES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
KEEP THINGS DRY.

DO EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CIRRUS SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST. FOR HIGHS TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF
MIXING DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF WARMER MET/MAV/EKD GUIDANCE. HIGHS
SHOULD BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...WHICH WOULD
PLACE THEM AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SHOULD SEE GUSTY
WINDS WITH SEABREEZE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
TO 30 MPH...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE NEARSHORE. A
40-45KT JET AT 1000 FT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE GUSTINESS OF THE
SEABREEZE.

MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR MONDAY NIGHT IS WHETHER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORM WITH THIRD NIGHT OF ONSHORE FLOW. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE
BACKED AWAY FROM THIS IDEA...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF DEBRIS
CIRRUS WORKING ITS WAY UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE - SO WENT WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER. FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED...WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER EAST COAST RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SOUTHERLY
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH WELL ESTABLISHED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DIURNALLY DRIVE AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AROUND THE
HIGH AS ENERGY MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY...ALLOWING A COUPLE OF WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS RESULTS IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA WHILE THE SOUTHERN
FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THEN WITH
THE WEAK FLOW THE NEXT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS
RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING
MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

S-SW FLOW LESS THAN 10 KT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. S-SW WINDS
INCREASE AFT 12Z MON WITH GUSTS RETURNING AS WELL. GUSTS 20-30KT
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM EACH
AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY NW OF CITY TERMINALS TUE AND WED. COASTAL
SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...WITH A PERSISTENT SW FLOW.

WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE PASSAGE OF A 40-45 KT JET AT 1000 FT. AT
THE SAME TIME WILL BE FAIRLY DEEPLY INVERTED...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE
THE AMOUNT OF THIS JET THAT MIXES DOWN...BUT WITH THE WIND MAX AT
OR JUST UNDER THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE...MORE MIXING COULD OCCUR IN
THIS SCENARIO THAN ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT.

BASED ON THIS HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 18Z
MONDAY-10Z TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT AS WELL. ON THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTS TO 20 KT...WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT
THAT 25 KT GUSTS END UP BEING MORE FREQUENT THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS UNDER SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
HOWEVER...NEARSHORE WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

ON GOING SMALL CRAFT SEAS TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WATERS AND A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
5 FT THURSDAY NIGHT. SUB SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO LATE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE 10-15 PERCENT HIGHER ON MON THAN
TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL BE 10-15 MPH STRONGER...INCLUDING THE
GUSTS. IF DEEPER MIXING OCCURS THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN
THE POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD COULD BE REALIZED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ345-350-353-355.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KOKX 250246
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1046 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE HIGH THEN MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO T/TD AND SKY
OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST OVER THE TRI- STATE...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS/DISSIPATION TONIGHT. SO GOING
WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY...THEN
SLIDES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
KEEP THINGS DRY.

DO EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CIRRUS SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST. FOR HIGHS TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF
MIXING DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF WARMER MET/MAV/EKD GUIDANCE. HIGHS
SHOULD BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...WHICH WOULD
PLACE THEM AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SHOULD SEE GUSTY
WINDS WITH SEABREEZE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
TO 30 MPH...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE NEARSHORE. A
40-45KT JET AT 1000 FT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE GUSTINESS OF THE
SEABREEZE.

MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR MONDAY NIGHT IS WHETHER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORM WITH THIRD NIGHT OF ONSHORE FLOW. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE
BACKED AWAY FROM THIS IDEA...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF DEBRIS
CIRRUS WORKING ITS WAY UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE - SO WENT WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER. FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED...WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER EAST COAST RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SOUTHERLY
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH WELL ESTABLISHED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DIURNALLY DRIVE AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AROUND THE
HIGH AS ENERGY MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY...ALLOWING A COUPLE OF WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS RESULTS IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA WHILE THE SOUTHERN
FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THEN WITH
THE WEAK FLOW THE NEXT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS
RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING
MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

S-SW FLOW LESS THAN 10 KT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. S-SW WINDS
INCREASE AFT 12Z MON WITH GUSTS RETURNING AS WELL. GUSTS 20-30KT
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM EACH
AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY NW OF CITY TERMINALS TUE AND WED. COASTAL
SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...WITH A PERSISTENT SW FLOW.

WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE PASSAGE OF A 40-45 KT JET AT 1000 FT. AT
THE SAME TIME WILL BE FAIRLY DEEPLY INVERTED...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE
THE AMOUNT OF THIS JET THAT MIXES DOWN...BUT WITH THE WIND MAX AT
OR JUST UNDER THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE...MORE MIXING COULD OCCUR IN
THIS SCENARIO THAN ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT.

BASED ON THIS HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 18Z
MONDAY-10Z TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT AS WELL. ON THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTS TO 20 KT...WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT
THAT 25 KT GUSTS END UP BEING MORE FREQUENT THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS UNDER SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
HOWEVER...NEARSHORE WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

ON GOING SMALL CRAFT SEAS TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WATERS AND A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
5 FT THURSDAY NIGHT. SUB SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO LATE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE 10-15 PERCENT HIGHER ON MON THAN
TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL BE 10-15 MPH STRONGER...INCLUDING THE
GUSTS. IF DEEPER MIXING OCCURS THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN
THE POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD COULD BE REALIZED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ345-350-353-355.

&&

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 250235
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASINGLY WARMER AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALONG WITH THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 1035 PM EDT...STILL OVER REAL ACTIVITY OVER OUR REGION.
PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT. RIDGING OVER THE EAST WILL LIKELY FORCE THIS
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
CLIP AREAS NORTH OF I-90.

TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED QUITE A BIT IN AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-
90...WHERE CLOUDS WHERE THE THINNEST.

SO IT LOOKS AS IF MUCH OF THE AREA WILL DODGE RAINFALL ONCE
AGAIN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD BUT A SHOWER IS REMOTELY
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...THOSE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS GO UP A LITTLE
TO THE NORTH WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
THE DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UPWARD...BOTH OF WHICH WILL SLOW THE RATE
OF COOLING DOWN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...RE-TOOLED THE HOURLY GRIDS AND CONTINUE TO LEAVE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO 50S IN THE CAPITAL REGION...CLOSER TO 50 IN MOST OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG WITH
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID AIR MASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS PWATS CLIMB IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I90. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID-TEENS RANGE
ALONG WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TOO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH M-U 70S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A TRAILING MID LEVEL FRONT SETTLING SOUTH
OF I90 OVERNIGHT. NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL
TRANSVERSE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO WARRANT A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD AND HUMID WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO COME OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE THE MID
LEVEL FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO THE CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OVERALL INSTABILITY AS CURRENT SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 500-1000 J/KG WITH PWATS OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES.
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAIN IN
THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SO SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY NIGHT SETTING UP WITH
LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SEASON/S FIRST REAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NY STATE. DISTURBANCES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES ON BY LATE THURSDAY...REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING
ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER JAMES BAY MIGHT PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH OF OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER
TO FILTER IN. THIS FAR OUT...THAT IS NOT A CERTAINTY...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PROJECTED CAPES TO
OVER 2500 J/KG...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG ON
THAT DAY. ALSO PWAT VALUES LOOK TO REACH OVER 1.5 INCHES...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

HOPEFULLY THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BRING SOME RELIEF TO OUR
INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH SOME OF THE HOTTER SPOTS HAVING A SHOT AT 90
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...IF WE GET ENOUGH OF
SUNSHINE EACH OF THESE DAYS.

BY SUNDAY..HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO 65-70 ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...70S ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 60S...COOLING A LITTLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...LOWERING
AND THICKENING A BIT MAINLY NORTH (AT KGFL)...DOWN TO ABOUT 12000
FEE AGL. WE DID PLACE A VCSH AT THAT TAF SITE FROM 10Z-16Z AS THAT
SITE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT ANY RESTRICTION TO
MVFR LOOKS LOW AND IFR EVEN LOWER.

HAVE KEPT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES DRY AT THIS POINT.

THE WIND VARIABLE TO SOUTH 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT IN MOST CASES.

THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY...GUSTING TO ABOUT 18KTS AT KPSF AND KALB BY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 75 TO 90 PERCENT BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN
THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CALM
TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEEK ON TAP WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH
RIVER LEVELS HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITHIN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 250235
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASINGLY WARMER AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALONG WITH THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 1035 PM EDT...STILL OVER REAL ACTIVITY OVER OUR REGION.
PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT. RIDGING OVER THE EAST WILL LIKELY FORCE THIS
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
CLIP AREAS NORTH OF I-90.

TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED QUITE A BIT IN AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-
90...WHERE CLOUDS WHERE THE THINNEST.

SO IT LOOKS AS IF MUCH OF THE AREA WILL DODGE RAINFALL ONCE
AGAIN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD BUT A SHOWER IS REMOTELY
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...THOSE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS GO UP A LITTLE
TO THE NORTH WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
THE DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UPWARD...BOTH OF WHICH WILL SLOW THE RATE
OF COOLING DOWN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...RE-TOOLED THE HOURLY GRIDS AND CONTINUE TO LEAVE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO 50S IN THE CAPITAL REGION...CLOSER TO 50 IN MOST OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG WITH
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID AIR MASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS PWATS CLIMB IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I90. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID-TEENS RANGE
ALONG WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TOO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH M-U 70S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A TRAILING MID LEVEL FRONT SETTLING SOUTH
OF I90 OVERNIGHT. NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL
TRANSVERSE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO WARRANT A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD AND HUMID WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO COME OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE THE MID
LEVEL FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO THE CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OVERALL INSTABILITY AS CURRENT SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 500-1000 J/KG WITH PWATS OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES.
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAIN IN
THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SO SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY NIGHT SETTING UP WITH
LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SEASON/S FIRST REAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NY STATE. DISTURBANCES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES ON BY LATE THURSDAY...REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING
ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER JAMES BAY MIGHT PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH OF OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER
TO FILTER IN. THIS FAR OUT...THAT IS NOT A CERTAINTY...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PROJECTED CAPES TO
OVER 2500 J/KG...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG ON
THAT DAY. ALSO PWAT VALUES LOOK TO REACH OVER 1.5 INCHES...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

HOPEFULLY THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BRING SOME RELIEF TO OUR
INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH SOME OF THE HOTTER SPOTS HAVING A SHOT AT 90
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...IF WE GET ENOUGH OF
SUNSHINE EACH OF THESE DAYS.

BY SUNDAY..HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO 65-70 ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...70S ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 60S...COOLING A LITTLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...LOWERING
AND THICKENING A BIT MAINLY NORTH (AT KGFL)...DOWN TO ABOUT 12000
FEE AGL. WE DID PLACE A VCSH AT THAT TAF SITE FROM 10Z-16Z AS THAT
SITE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT ANY RESTRICTION TO
MVFR LOOKS LOW AND IFR EVEN LOWER.

HAVE KEPT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES DRY AT THIS POINT.

THE WIND VARIABLE TO SOUTH 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT IN MOST CASES.

THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY...GUSTING TO ABOUT 18KTS AT KPSF AND KALB BY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 75 TO 90 PERCENT BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN
THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CALM
TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEEK ON TAP WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH
RIVER LEVELS HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITHIN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 250207
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1007 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1006 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE TO
OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE IN SHORT ORDER
AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST. SHOWERS INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD WITH CLOUDS AND
PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 348 PM SUNDAY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH
OF A STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST
AREA TOWARDS MORNING...WITH REST OF REGION REMAINING DRY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
HAVE INDICATED HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS WHERE A PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ACCORDINGLY...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW
FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD SEE
READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RISK OF SHOWERS DECREASES WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM
TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN
A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN 925MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 22C WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES OF
- 2 INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE U70S-U80S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND,
KEEPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD IN THE 60S WITH THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M70S-L80S.

SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
AGAIN PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MAXES WILL SEE THE U70S-M80S.

A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
EASTER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NY EARLY
SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT, AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH GENERALLY SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING - WHICH ARE LOCALLY
GUSTING TO 26 KTS AT KMSS - WILL TEND TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS AFTER
SUNSET AS LOW-LEVELS BECOME MORE STABLE. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING BKN-OVC050-090 CONDITIONS TO THE
TAF SITES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK MID TO LATE MORNING...AND POSSIBLE PBG AND VT
TAF LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD SEE PREVAILING VFR CIGS/VSBY FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH 5-10 KTS IN THE
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/KGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 250207
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1007 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1006 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE TO
OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE IN SHORT ORDER
AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST. SHOWERS INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD WITH CLOUDS AND
PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 348 PM SUNDAY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH
OF A STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST
AREA TOWARDS MORNING...WITH REST OF REGION REMAINING DRY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
HAVE INDICATED HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS WHERE A PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ACCORDINGLY...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW
FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD SEE
READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RISK OF SHOWERS DECREASES WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM
TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN
A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN 925MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 22C WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES OF
- 2 INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE U70S-U80S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND,
KEEPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD IN THE 60S WITH THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M70S-L80S.

SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
AGAIN PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MAXES WILL SEE THE U70S-M80S.

A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
EASTER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NY EARLY
SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT, AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH GENERALLY SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING - WHICH ARE LOCALLY
GUSTING TO 26 KTS AT KMSS - WILL TEND TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS AFTER
SUNSET AS LOW-LEVELS BECOME MORE STABLE. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING BKN-OVC050-090 CONDITIONS TO THE
TAF SITES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK MID TO LATE MORNING...AND POSSIBLE PBG AND VT
TAF LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD SEE PREVAILING VFR CIGS/VSBY FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH 5-10 KTS IN THE
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250207
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1007 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1006 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE TO
OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE IN SHORT ORDER
AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST. SHOWERS INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD WITH CLOUDS AND
PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 348 PM SUNDAY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH
OF A STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST
AREA TOWARDS MORNING...WITH REST OF REGION REMAINING DRY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
HAVE INDICATED HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS WHERE A PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ACCORDINGLY...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW
FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD SEE
READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RISK OF SHOWERS DECREASES WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM
TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN
A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN 925MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 22C WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES OF
- 2 INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE U70S-U80S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND,
KEEPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD IN THE 60S WITH THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M70S-L80S.

SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
AGAIN PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MAXES WILL SEE THE U70S-M80S.

A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
EASTER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NY EARLY
SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT, AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH GENERALLY SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING - WHICH ARE LOCALLY
GUSTING TO 26 KTS AT KMSS - WILL TEND TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS AFTER
SUNSET AS LOW-LEVELS BECOME MORE STABLE. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING BKN-OVC050-090 CONDITIONS TO THE
TAF SITES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK MID TO LATE MORNING...AND POSSIBLE PBG AND VT
TAF LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD SEE PREVAILING VFR CIGS/VSBY FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH 5-10 KTS IN THE
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250207
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1007 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1006 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE TO
OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE IN SHORT ORDER
AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST. SHOWERS INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD WITH CLOUDS AND
PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 348 PM SUNDAY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH
OF A STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST
AREA TOWARDS MORNING...WITH REST OF REGION REMAINING DRY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
HAVE INDICATED HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS WHERE A PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ACCORDINGLY...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW
FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD SEE
READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RISK OF SHOWERS DECREASES WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM
TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN
A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN 925MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 22C WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES OF
- 2 INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE U70S-U80S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND,
KEEPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD IN THE 60S WITH THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M70S-L80S.

SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
AGAIN PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MAXES WILL SEE THE U70S-M80S.

A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
EASTER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NY EARLY
SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT, AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH GENERALLY SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING - WHICH ARE LOCALLY
GUSTING TO 26 KTS AT KMSS - WILL TEND TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS AFTER
SUNSET AS LOW-LEVELS BECOME MORE STABLE. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING BKN-OVC050-090 CONDITIONS TO THE
TAF SITES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK MID TO LATE MORNING...AND POSSIBLE PBG AND VT
TAF LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD SEE PREVAILING VFR CIGS/VSBY FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH 5-10 KTS IN THE
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250207
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1007 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1006 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE TO
OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE IN SHORT ORDER
AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST. SHOWERS INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD WITH CLOUDS AND
PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 348 PM SUNDAY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH
OF A STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST
AREA TOWARDS MORNING...WITH REST OF REGION REMAINING DRY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
HAVE INDICATED HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS WHERE A PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ACCORDINGLY...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW
FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD SEE
READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RISK OF SHOWERS DECREASES WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM
TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN
A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN 925MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 22C WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES OF
- 2 INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE U70S-U80S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND,
KEEPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD IN THE 60S WITH THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M70S-L80S.

SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
AGAIN PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MAXES WILL SEE THE U70S-M80S.

A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
EASTER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NY EARLY
SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT, AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH GENERALLY SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING - WHICH ARE LOCALLY
GUSTING TO 26 KTS AT KMSS - WILL TEND TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS AFTER
SUNSET AS LOW-LEVELS BECOME MORE STABLE. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING BKN-OVC050-090 CONDITIONS TO THE
TAF SITES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK MID TO LATE MORNING...AND POSSIBLE PBG AND VT
TAF LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD SEE PREVAILING VFR CIGS/VSBY FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH 5-10 KTS IN THE
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250207
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1007 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1006 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE TO
OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE IN SHORT ORDER
AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST. SHOWERS INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD WITH CLOUDS AND
PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 348 PM SUNDAY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH
OF A STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST
AREA TOWARDS MORNING...WITH REST OF REGION REMAINING DRY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
HAVE INDICATED HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS WHERE A PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ACCORDINGLY...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW
FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD SEE
READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RISK OF SHOWERS DECREASES WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM
TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN
A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN 925MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 22C WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES OF
- 2 INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE U70S-U80S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND,
KEEPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD IN THE 60S WITH THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M70S-L80S.

SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
AGAIN PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MAXES WILL SEE THE U70S-M80S.

A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
EASTER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NY EARLY
SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT, AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH GENERALLY SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING - WHICH ARE LOCALLY
GUSTING TO 26 KTS AT KMSS - WILL TEND TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS AFTER
SUNSET AS LOW-LEVELS BECOME MORE STABLE. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING BKN-OVC050-090 CONDITIONS TO THE
TAF SITES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK MID TO LATE MORNING...AND POSSIBLE PBG AND VT
TAF LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD SEE PREVAILING VFR CIGS/VSBY FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH 5-10 KTS IN THE
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/KGM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 250007
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
807 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE HIGH THEN MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CIRRUS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO OUR
WEST OVER THE TRI-STATE...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF BREAKS/DISSIPATION TONIGHT. SO GOING WITH A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT FORMATION AT AREA ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY...THEN
SLIDES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
KEEP THINGS DRY.

DO EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CIRRUS SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST. FOR HIGHS TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF
MIXING DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF WARMER MET/MAV/EKD GUIDANCE. HIGHS
SHOULD BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...WHICH WOULD
PLACE THEM AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SHOULD SEE GUSTY
WINDS WITH SEABREEZE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
TO 30 MPH...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE NEARSHORE. A
40-45KT JET AT 1000 FT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE GUSTINESS OF THE
SEABREEZE.

MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR MONDAY NIGHT IS WHETHER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORM WITH THIRD NIGHT OF ONSHORE FLOW. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE
BACKED AWAY FROM THIS IDEA...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF DEBRIS
CIRRUS WORKING ITS WAY UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE - SO WENT WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER. FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED...WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER EAST COAST RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SOUTHERLY
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH WELL ESTABLISHED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DIURNALLY DRIVE AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AROUND THE
HIGH AS ENERGY MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY...ALLOWING A COUPLE OF WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS RESULTS IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA WHILE THE SOUTHERN
FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THEN WITH
THE WEAK FLOW THE NEXT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS
RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING
MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

DECREASING S-SW FLOW THIS EVE...THEN LESS THAN 10 KT ALL TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. S-SW WINDS INCREASE AFT 12Z MON WITH GUSTS RETURNING
AS WELL. GUSTS 20-30KT EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM EACH
AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY NW OF CITY TERMINALS TUE AND WED. COASTAL
SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...WITH A PERSISTENT SW FLOW.

WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE PASSAGE OF A 40-45 KT JET AT 1000 FT. AT
THE SAME TIME WILL BE FAIRLY DEEPLY INVERTED...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE
THE AMOUNT OF THIS JET THAT MIXES DOWN...BUT WITH THE WIND MAX AT
OR JUST UNDER THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE...MORE MIXING COULD OCCUR IN
THIS SCENARIO THAN ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT.

BASED ON THIS HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 18Z
MONDAY-10Z TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT AS WELL. ON THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTS TO 20 KT...WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT
THAT 25 KT GUSTS END UP BEING MORE FREQUENT THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS UNDER SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
HOWEVER...NEARSHORE WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

ON GOING SMALL CRAFT SEAS TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WATERS AND A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
5 FT THURSDAY NIGHT. SUB SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO LATE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OUTSIDE OF LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT REMAIN
BELOW 30 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS...SO THE ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE
SPREAD CONTINUES THERE INTO THIS EVENING.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE 10-15
PERCENT OVER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL BE 10-15 MPH
STRONGER...INCLUDING THE GUSTS. IF DEEPER MIXING OCCURS THAN IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE
SPREAD COULD BE REALIZED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...24
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MET



000
FXUS61 KOKX 250007
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
807 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE HIGH THEN MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CIRRUS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO OUR
WEST OVER THE TRI-STATE...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF BREAKS/DISSIPATION TONIGHT. SO GOING WITH A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT FORMATION AT AREA ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY...THEN
SLIDES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
KEEP THINGS DRY.

DO EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CIRRUS SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST. FOR HIGHS TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF
MIXING DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF WARMER MET/MAV/EKD GUIDANCE. HIGHS
SHOULD BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...WHICH WOULD
PLACE THEM AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SHOULD SEE GUSTY
WINDS WITH SEABREEZE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
TO 30 MPH...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE NEARSHORE. A
40-45KT JET AT 1000 FT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE GUSTINESS OF THE
SEABREEZE.

MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR MONDAY NIGHT IS WHETHER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORM WITH THIRD NIGHT OF ONSHORE FLOW. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE
BACKED AWAY FROM THIS IDEA...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF DEBRIS
CIRRUS WORKING ITS WAY UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE - SO WENT WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER. FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED...WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER EAST COAST RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SOUTHERLY
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH WELL ESTABLISHED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DIURNALLY DRIVE AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AROUND THE
HIGH AS ENERGY MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY...ALLOWING A COUPLE OF WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS RESULTS IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA WHILE THE SOUTHERN
FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THEN WITH
THE WEAK FLOW THE NEXT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS
RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING
MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

DECREASING S-SW FLOW THIS EVE...THEN LESS THAN 10 KT ALL TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. S-SW WINDS INCREASE AFT 12Z MON WITH GUSTS RETURNING
AS WELL. GUSTS 20-30KT EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM EACH
AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY NW OF CITY TERMINALS TUE AND WED. COASTAL
SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...WITH A PERSISTENT SW FLOW.

WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE PASSAGE OF A 40-45 KT JET AT 1000 FT. AT
THE SAME TIME WILL BE FAIRLY DEEPLY INVERTED...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE
THE AMOUNT OF THIS JET THAT MIXES DOWN...BUT WITH THE WIND MAX AT
OR JUST UNDER THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE...MORE MIXING COULD OCCUR IN
THIS SCENARIO THAN ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT.

BASED ON THIS HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 18Z
MONDAY-10Z TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT AS WELL. ON THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTS TO 20 KT...WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT
THAT 25 KT GUSTS END UP BEING MORE FREQUENT THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS UNDER SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
HOWEVER...NEARSHORE WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

ON GOING SMALL CRAFT SEAS TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WATERS AND A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
5 FT THURSDAY NIGHT. SUB SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO LATE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OUTSIDE OF LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT REMAIN
BELOW 30 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS...SO THE ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE
SPREAD CONTINUES THERE INTO THIS EVENING.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE 10-15
PERCENT OVER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL BE 10-15 MPH
STRONGER...INCLUDING THE GUSTS. IF DEEPER MIXING OCCURS THAN IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE
SPREAD COULD BE REALIZED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...24
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MET



000
FXUS61 KOKX 250007
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
807 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE HIGH THEN MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CIRRUS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO OUR
WEST OVER THE TRI-STATE...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF BREAKS/DISSIPATION TONIGHT. SO GOING WITH A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT FORMATION AT AREA ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY...THEN
SLIDES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
KEEP THINGS DRY.

DO EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CIRRUS SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST. FOR HIGHS TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF
MIXING DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF WARMER MET/MAV/EKD GUIDANCE. HIGHS
SHOULD BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...WHICH WOULD
PLACE THEM AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SHOULD SEE GUSTY
WINDS WITH SEABREEZE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
TO 30 MPH...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE NEARSHORE. A
40-45KT JET AT 1000 FT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE GUSTINESS OF THE
SEABREEZE.

MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR MONDAY NIGHT IS WHETHER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORM WITH THIRD NIGHT OF ONSHORE FLOW. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE
BACKED AWAY FROM THIS IDEA...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF DEBRIS
CIRRUS WORKING ITS WAY UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE - SO WENT WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER. FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED...WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER EAST COAST RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SOUTHERLY
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH WELL ESTABLISHED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DIURNALLY DRIVE AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AROUND THE
HIGH AS ENERGY MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY...ALLOWING A COUPLE OF WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS RESULTS IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA WHILE THE SOUTHERN
FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THEN WITH
THE WEAK FLOW THE NEXT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS
RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING
MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

DECREASING S-SW FLOW THIS EVE...THEN LESS THAN 10 KT ALL TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. S-SW WINDS INCREASE AFT 12Z MON WITH GUSTS RETURNING
AS WELL. GUSTS 20-30KT EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING.
.TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM EACH
AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY NW OF CITY TERMINALS TUE AND WED. COASTAL
SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...WITH A PERSISTENT SW FLOW.

WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE PASSAGE OF A 40-45 KT JET AT 1000 FT. AT
THE SAME TIME WILL BE FAIRLY DEEPLY INVERTED...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE
THE AMOUNT OF THIS JET THAT MIXES DOWN...BUT WITH THE WIND MAX AT
OR JUST UNDER THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE...MORE MIXING COULD OCCUR IN
THIS SCENARIO THAN ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT.

BASED ON THIS HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 18Z
MONDAY-10Z TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT AS WELL. ON THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTS TO 20 KT...WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT
THAT 25 KT GUSTS END UP BEING MORE FREQUENT THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS UNDER SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
HOWEVER...NEARSHORE WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

ON GOING SMALL CRAFT SEAS TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WATERS AND A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
5 FT THURSDAY NIGHT. SUB SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO LATE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OUTSIDE OF LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT REMAIN
BELOW 30 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS...SO THE ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE
SPREAD CONTINUES THERE INTO THIS EVENING.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE 10-15
PERCENT OVER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL BE 10-15 MPH
STRONGER...INCLUDING THE GUSTS. IF DEEPER MIXING OCCURS THAN IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE
SPREAD COULD BE REALIZED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...24
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MET




000
FXUS61 KALY 242358
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
759 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASINGLY WARMER AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALONG WITH THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS PF 745 PM EDT...ALL QUIET ON THE RADAR FRONTS...NO ECHOES. THE
NEAREST CONVECTION AT THIS TIME WAS BACK IN THE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS. THERE WAS A SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN WORKING
ACROSS THE NORTHER GREAT LAKES...NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. IT LOOKS AS
IF THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTH OF OUR
REGION...WITH SOME SHOWERS CLIPPER NORTHERN AREAS FROM GLENS FALLS
NORTH LATER OVERNIGHT.

THEREFORE IT LOOKS AS IF MUCH OF THE AREA WILL DODGE RAINFALL ONCE
AGAIN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD BUT A SHOWER IS REMOTELY
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DEWPOINTS REMAINED LOW OVER OUR REGION...FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. THEY WERE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER TO OUR SOUTH.

IT WILL BE DRY THERE WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...BUT AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...THOSE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RAMP UP TO OUR
NORTH AGAIN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS A LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BREEZE PERSISTS AND THE DEWPOINTS INCREASE.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS...LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND RAISING TEMPERATURES A BIT.

HAVE LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG WITH
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID AIR MASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS PWATS CLIMB IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I90. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID-TEENS RANGE
ALONG WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TOO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH M-U 70S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A TRAILING MID LEVEL FRONT SETTLING SOUTH
OF I90 OVERNIGHT. NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL
TRANSVERSE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO WARRANT A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD AND HUMID WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO COME OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE THE MID
LEVEL FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO THE CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OVERALL INSTABILITY AS CURRENT SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 500-1000 J/KG WITH PWATS OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES.
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAIN IN
THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SO SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY NIGHT SETTING UP WITH
LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SEASON/S FIRST REAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NY STATE. DISTURBANCES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES ON BY LATE THURSDAY...REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING
ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER JAMES BAY MIGHT PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH OF OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER
TO FILTER IN. THIS FAR OUT...THAT IS NOT A CERTAINTY...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PROJECTED CAPES TO
OVER 2500 J/KG...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG ON
THAT DAY. ALSO PWAT VALUES LOOK TO REACH OVER 1.5 INCHES...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

HOPEFULLY THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BRING SOME RELIEF TO OUR
INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH SOME OF THE HOTTER SPOTS HAVING A SHOT AT 90
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...IF WE GET ENOUGH OF
SUNSHINE EACH OF THESE DAYS.

BY SUNDAY..HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO 65-70 ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...70S ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 60S...COOLING A LITTLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...LOWERING
AND THICKENING A BIT MAINLY NORTH (AT KGFL)...DOWN TO ABOUT 12000
FEE AGL. WE DID PLACE A VCSH AT THAT TAF SITE FROM 10Z-16Z AS THAT
SITE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT ANY RESTRICTION TO
MVFR LOOKS LOW AND IFR EVEN LOWER.

HAVE KEPT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES DRY AT THIS POINT.

THE WIND WILL BE SOUTH (OR WEST TURNING SOUTH AT KALB) THIS
EVENING...5-10KTS...DROPPING TO AROUND 5KTS OVERNIGHT.

THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW...GUSTING TO ABOUT 18KTS AT KPSF AND KALB BY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 75 TO 90 PERCENT BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN
THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CALM
TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEEK ON TAP WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH
RIVER LEVELS HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITHIN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 242358
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
759 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASINGLY WARMER AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALONG WITH THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS PF 745 PM EDT...ALL QUIET ON THE RADAR FRONTS...NO ECHOES. THE
NEAREST CONVECTION AT THIS TIME WAS BACK IN THE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS. THERE WAS A SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN WORKING
ACROSS THE NORTHER GREAT LAKES...NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. IT LOOKS AS
IF THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTH OF OUR
REGION...WITH SOME SHOWERS CLIPPER NORTHERN AREAS FROM GLENS FALLS
NORTH LATER OVERNIGHT.

THEREFORE IT LOOKS AS IF MUCH OF THE AREA WILL DODGE RAINFALL ONCE
AGAIN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD BUT A SHOWER IS REMOTELY
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DEWPOINTS REMAINED LOW OVER OUR REGION...FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. THEY WERE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER TO OUR SOUTH.

IT WILL BE DRY THERE WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...BUT AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...THOSE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RAMP UP TO OUR
NORTH AGAIN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS A LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BREEZE PERSISTS AND THE DEWPOINTS INCREASE.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS...LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND RAISING TEMPERATURES A BIT.

HAVE LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG WITH
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID AIR MASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS PWATS CLIMB IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I90. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID-TEENS RANGE
ALONG WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TOO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH M-U 70S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A TRAILING MID LEVEL FRONT SETTLING SOUTH
OF I90 OVERNIGHT. NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL
TRANSVERSE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO WARRANT A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD AND HUMID WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO COME OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE THE MID
LEVEL FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO THE CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OVERALL INSTABILITY AS CURRENT SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 500-1000 J/KG WITH PWATS OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES.
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAIN IN
THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SO SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY NIGHT SETTING UP WITH
LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SEASON/S FIRST REAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NY STATE. DISTURBANCES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES ON BY LATE THURSDAY...REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING
ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER JAMES BAY MIGHT PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH OF OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER
TO FILTER IN. THIS FAR OUT...THAT IS NOT A CERTAINTY...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PROJECTED CAPES TO
OVER 2500 J/KG...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG ON
THAT DAY. ALSO PWAT VALUES LOOK TO REACH OVER 1.5 INCHES...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

HOPEFULLY THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BRING SOME RELIEF TO OUR
INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH SOME OF THE HOTTER SPOTS HAVING A SHOT AT 90
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...IF WE GET ENOUGH OF
SUNSHINE EACH OF THESE DAYS.

BY SUNDAY..HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO 65-70 ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...70S ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 60S...COOLING A LITTLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...LOWERING
AND THICKENING A BIT MAINLY NORTH (AT KGFL)...DOWN TO ABOUT 12000
FEE AGL. WE DID PLACE A VCSH AT THAT TAF SITE FROM 10Z-16Z AS THAT
SITE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT ANY RESTRICTION TO
MVFR LOOKS LOW AND IFR EVEN LOWER.

HAVE KEPT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES DRY AT THIS POINT.

THE WIND WILL BE SOUTH (OR WEST TURNING SOUTH AT KALB) THIS
EVENING...5-10KTS...DROPPING TO AROUND 5KTS OVERNIGHT.

THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW...GUSTING TO ABOUT 18KTS AT KPSF AND KALB BY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 75 TO 90 PERCENT BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN
THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CALM
TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEEK ON TAP WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH
RIVER LEVELS HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITHIN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 242358
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
759 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASINGLY WARMER AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALONG WITH THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS PF 745 PM EDT...ALL QUIET ON THE RADAR FRONTS...NO ECHOES. THE
NEAREST CONVECTION AT THIS TIME WAS BACK IN THE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS. THERE WAS A SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN WORKING
ACROSS THE NORTHER GREAT LAKES...NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. IT LOOKS AS
IF THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTH OF OUR
REGION...WITH SOME SHOWERS CLIPPER NORTHERN AREAS FROM GLENS FALLS
NORTH LATER OVERNIGHT.

THEREFORE IT LOOKS AS IF MUCH OF THE AREA WILL DODGE RAINFALL ONCE
AGAIN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD BUT A SHOWER IS REMOTELY
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DEWPOINTS REMAINED LOW OVER OUR REGION...FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. THEY WERE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER TO OUR SOUTH.

IT WILL BE DRY THERE WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...BUT AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...THOSE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RAMP UP TO OUR
NORTH AGAIN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS A LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BREEZE PERSISTS AND THE DEWPOINTS INCREASE.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS...LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND RAISING TEMPERATURES A BIT.

HAVE LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG WITH
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID AIR MASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS PWATS CLIMB IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I90. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID-TEENS RANGE
ALONG WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TOO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH M-U 70S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A TRAILING MID LEVEL FRONT SETTLING SOUTH
OF I90 OVERNIGHT. NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL
TRANSVERSE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO WARRANT A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD AND HUMID WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO COME OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE THE MID
LEVEL FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO THE CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OVERALL INSTABILITY AS CURRENT SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 500-1000 J/KG WITH PWATS OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES.
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAIN IN
THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SO SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY NIGHT SETTING UP WITH
LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SEASON/S FIRST REAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NY STATE. DISTURBANCES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES ON BY LATE THURSDAY...REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING
ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER JAMES BAY MIGHT PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH OF OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER
TO FILTER IN. THIS FAR OUT...THAT IS NOT A CERTAINTY...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PROJECTED CAPES TO
OVER 2500 J/KG...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG ON
THAT DAY. ALSO PWAT VALUES LOOK TO REACH OVER 1.5 INCHES...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

HOPEFULLY THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BRING SOME RELIEF TO OUR
INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH SOME OF THE HOTTER SPOTS HAVING A SHOT AT 90
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...IF WE GET ENOUGH OF
SUNSHINE EACH OF THESE DAYS.

BY SUNDAY..HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO 65-70 ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...70S ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 60S...COOLING A LITTLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...LOWERING
AND THICKENING A BIT MAINLY NORTH (AT KGFL)...DOWN TO ABOUT 12000
FEE AGL. WE DID PLACE A VCSH AT THAT TAF SITE FROM 10Z-16Z AS THAT
SITE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT ANY RESTRICTION TO
MVFR LOOKS LOW AND IFR EVEN LOWER.

HAVE KEPT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES DRY AT THIS POINT.

THE WIND WILL BE SOUTH (OR WEST TURNING SOUTH AT KALB) THIS
EVENING...5-10KTS...DROPPING TO AROUND 5KTS OVERNIGHT.

THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW...GUSTING TO ABOUT 18KTS AT KPSF AND KALB BY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 75 TO 90 PERCENT BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN
THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CALM
TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEEK ON TAP WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH
RIVER LEVELS HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITHIN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 242358
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
759 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASINGLY WARMER AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALONG WITH THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS PF 745 PM EDT...ALL QUIET ON THE RADAR FRONTS...NO ECHOES. THE
NEAREST CONVECTION AT THIS TIME WAS BACK IN THE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS. THERE WAS A SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING RAIN WORKING
ACROSS THE NORTHER GREAT LAKES...NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. IT LOOKS AS
IF THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTH OF OUR
REGION...WITH SOME SHOWERS CLIPPER NORTHERN AREAS FROM GLENS FALLS
NORTH LATER OVERNIGHT.

THEREFORE IT LOOKS AS IF MUCH OF THE AREA WILL DODGE RAINFALL ONCE
AGAIN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD BUT A SHOWER IS REMOTELY
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DEWPOINTS REMAINED LOW OVER OUR REGION...FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. THEY WERE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER TO OUR SOUTH.

IT WILL BE DRY THERE WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...BUT AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...THOSE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RAMP UP TO OUR
NORTH AGAIN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS A LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BREEZE PERSISTS AND THE DEWPOINTS INCREASE.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS...LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND RAISING TEMPERATURES A BIT.

HAVE LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG WITH
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID AIR MASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS PWATS CLIMB IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I90. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID-TEENS RANGE
ALONG WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TOO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH M-U 70S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A TRAILING MID LEVEL FRONT SETTLING SOUTH
OF I90 OVERNIGHT. NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL
TRANSVERSE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO WARRANT A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD AND HUMID WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO COME OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE THE MID
LEVEL FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO THE CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OVERALL INSTABILITY AS CURRENT SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 500-1000 J/KG WITH PWATS OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES.
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAIN IN
THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SO SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY NIGHT SETTING UP WITH
LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SEASON/S FIRST REAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NY STATE. DISTURBANCES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES ON BY LATE THURSDAY...REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING
ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER JAMES BAY MIGHT PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH OF OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER
TO FILTER IN. THIS FAR OUT...THAT IS NOT A CERTAINTY...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PROJECTED CAPES TO
OVER 2500 J/KG...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG ON
THAT DAY. ALSO PWAT VALUES LOOK TO REACH OVER 1.5 INCHES...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

HOPEFULLY THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BRING SOME RELIEF TO OUR
INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH SOME OF THE HOTTER SPOTS HAVING A SHOT AT 90
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...IF WE GET ENOUGH OF
SUNSHINE EACH OF THESE DAYS.

BY SUNDAY..HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO 65-70 ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...70S ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 60S...COOLING A LITTLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...LOWERING
AND THICKENING A BIT MAINLY NORTH (AT KGFL)...DOWN TO ABOUT 12000
FEE AGL. WE DID PLACE A VCSH AT THAT TAF SITE FROM 10Z-16Z AS THAT
SITE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT ANY RESTRICTION TO
MVFR LOOKS LOW AND IFR EVEN LOWER.

HAVE KEPT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES DRY AT THIS POINT.

THE WIND WILL BE SOUTH (OR WEST TURNING SOUTH AT KALB) THIS
EVENING...5-10KTS...DROPPING TO AROUND 5KTS OVERNIGHT.

THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW...GUSTING TO ABOUT 18KTS AT KPSF AND KALB BY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 75 TO 90 PERCENT BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN
THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CALM
TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEEK ON TAP WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH
RIVER LEVELS HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITHIN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KBTV 242343
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
743 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 705 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO FAR.
CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE TO
OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE IN SHORT ORDER
AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST. SHOWERS INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD WITH CLOUDS AND
PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S/50S ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 348 PM SUNDAY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH
OF A STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST
AREA TOWARDS MORNING...WITH REST OF REGION REMAINING DRY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
HAVE INDICATED HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS WHERE A PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ACCORDINGLY...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW
FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD SEE
READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RISK OF SHOWERS DECREASES WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM
TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN
A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN 925MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 22C WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES OF
- 2 INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE U70S-U80S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND,
KEEPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD IN THE 60S WITH THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M70S-L80S.

SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
AGAIN PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MAXES WILL SEE THE U70S-M80S.

A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
EASTER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NY EARLY
SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT, AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH GENERALLY SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING - WHICH ARE LOCALLY
GUSTING TO 26 KTS AT KMSS - WILL TEND TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS AFTER
SUNSET AS LOW-LEVELS BECOME MORE STABLE. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING BKN-OVC050-090 CONDITIONS TO THE
TAF SITES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK MID TO LATE MORNING...AND POSSIBLE PBG AND VT
TAF LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD SEE PREVAILING VFR CIGS/VSBY FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH 5-10 KTS IN THE
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 242343
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
743 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 705 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO FAR.
CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE TO
OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE IN SHORT ORDER
AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST. SHOWERS INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD WITH CLOUDS AND
PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S/50S ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 348 PM SUNDAY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH
OF A STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST
AREA TOWARDS MORNING...WITH REST OF REGION REMAINING DRY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
HAVE INDICATED HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS WHERE A PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ACCORDINGLY...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW
FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD SEE
READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RISK OF SHOWERS DECREASES WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM
TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN
A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN 925MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 22C WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES OF
- 2 INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE U70S-U80S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND,
KEEPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD IN THE 60S WITH THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M70S-L80S.

SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
AGAIN PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MAXES WILL SEE THE U70S-M80S.

A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
EASTER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NY EARLY
SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT, AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH GENERALLY SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING - WHICH ARE LOCALLY
GUSTING TO 26 KTS AT KMSS - WILL TEND TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS AFTER
SUNSET AS LOW-LEVELS BECOME MORE STABLE. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING BKN-OVC050-090 CONDITIONS TO THE
TAF SITES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK MID TO LATE MORNING...AND POSSIBLE PBG AND VT
TAF LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD SEE PREVAILING VFR CIGS/VSBY FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH 5-10 KTS IN THE
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/KGM


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBGM 242339
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
739 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EARLY MONDAY A WARM FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA BUT BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER
WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...
FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
SFC HIPRE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OVRNGT AS THE UPR RDG CONTS TO BLD.
WRM FNT TRIES TO MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA LATE BUT WITH UPR HGTS
STILL BLDG...BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN IS SHUNTED OFF TO THE WEST. LATE
TNGT A WV RIDING OVER THE RDG TRIES TO BRING SOME SHWRS INTO THE
NRN ZONES...ESP IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS. WILL CONT WITH A CHANCE OF
SHWRS OVER THE XTRM NORTH AND KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PTRN KIND OF STALLS THRU THE SHRT TERM WITH THE STRONG AND SHRP
RDG IN PLACE ON THE EAST CST AND A BROAD TROF OVER THE WRN US.
THIS WILL CONT DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING NWRD OUT OF THE WRN GULF
CST AND UP THE MI VLY. AS WVS WRAP ARND THE ERN RDG THEY PULL SOME
MOISTURE AND INCRSD INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. WITH HTG THERE/S A
RSNBL CHANCE OF AFNT CONV...ESP OVER THE NRN AND WRN ZONES TUE
AFTN. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MRGL CHANCE FOR TUE AFTN...MANLY WITH
THE INCRSD INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPLIED BY THE SHRT WV.

TEMPS WILL RISE CNSRBLY MON AFNT INTO TUE BHD THE WRM FNT...RCHG
INTO THE MID 80S IN THE VLYS BOTH MON AND TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...

AN UNSETTLED AND WARM EXTENDED FORECAST, WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
80S FOR HIGHS. FOR A LOT OF US, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL HOPEFULLY
WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINS TO PARTS OF OUR AREA. MODEL AGREEMENT
IS GOOD EARLY, BUT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK DIFFERS QUITE A BIT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS STILL PRESENT WITH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOWING PWATS (PRECIPITABLE WATER) VALUES 1.5" OR GREATER.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO WHILE NOT PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT ITS ALSO NOT EXACTLY PERPENDICULAR. THE RESULT WILL BE
THAT OUR AREA OF RAIN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE BUT NOT IN A REAL HURRY
TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. GFS MPE VECTORS ALSO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR BACK BUILDING OR TRAINING STORMS, WHILE THE NAM DOES NOT. THE
GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THIS REGARD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER THURSDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING DRIER AIR
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY. THE
EURO LINGERS MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING, KEEPS SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN. I TRIED A COMPROMISE
WITH JUST LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (PER THE EURO), BUT A NOTICEABLE
LOWER SHOT THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE WEDNESDAY (PER THE GFS). NEW
FRONT APPROACHES FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A NEW ROUND OF
RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SIDE EAST TODAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT ALL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH
OF ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY UNDER 12 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON EVENING...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN TSRA/SHRA.

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/DAYTIME TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...KAH



000
FXUS61 KBGM 242339
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
739 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EARLY MONDAY A WARM FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA BUT BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER
WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...
FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
SFC HIPRE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OVRNGT AS THE UPR RDG CONTS TO BLD.
WRM FNT TRIES TO MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA LATE BUT WITH UPR HGTS
STILL BLDG...BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN IS SHUNTED OFF TO THE WEST. LATE
TNGT A WV RIDING OVER THE RDG TRIES TO BRING SOME SHWRS INTO THE
NRN ZONES...ESP IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS. WILL CONT WITH A CHANCE OF
SHWRS OVER THE XTRM NORTH AND KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PTRN KIND OF STALLS THRU THE SHRT TERM WITH THE STRONG AND SHRP
RDG IN PLACE ON THE EAST CST AND A BROAD TROF OVER THE WRN US.
THIS WILL CONT DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING NWRD OUT OF THE WRN GULF
CST AND UP THE MI VLY. AS WVS WRAP ARND THE ERN RDG THEY PULL SOME
MOISTURE AND INCRSD INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. WITH HTG THERE/S A
RSNBL CHANCE OF AFNT CONV...ESP OVER THE NRN AND WRN ZONES TUE
AFTN. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MRGL CHANCE FOR TUE AFTN...MANLY WITH
THE INCRSD INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPLIED BY THE SHRT WV.

TEMPS WILL RISE CNSRBLY MON AFNT INTO TUE BHD THE WRM FNT...RCHG
INTO THE MID 80S IN THE VLYS BOTH MON AND TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...

AN UNSETTLED AND WARM EXTENDED FORECAST, WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
80S FOR HIGHS. FOR A LOT OF US, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL HOPEFULLY
WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINS TO PARTS OF OUR AREA. MODEL AGREEMENT
IS GOOD EARLY, BUT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK DIFFERS QUITE A BIT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS STILL PRESENT WITH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOWING PWATS (PRECIPITABLE WATER) VALUES 1.5" OR GREATER.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO WHILE NOT PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT ITS ALSO NOT EXACTLY PERPENDICULAR. THE RESULT WILL BE
THAT OUR AREA OF RAIN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE BUT NOT IN A REAL HURRY
TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. GFS MPE VECTORS ALSO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR BACK BUILDING OR TRAINING STORMS, WHILE THE NAM DOES NOT. THE
GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THIS REGARD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER THURSDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING DRIER AIR
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY. THE
EURO LINGERS MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING, KEEPS SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN. I TRIED A COMPROMISE
WITH JUST LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (PER THE EURO), BUT A NOTICEABLE
LOWER SHOT THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE WEDNESDAY (PER THE GFS). NEW
FRONT APPROACHES FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A NEW ROUND OF
RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SIDE EAST TODAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT ALL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH
OF ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY UNDER 12 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON EVENING...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN TSRA/SHRA.

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/DAYTIME TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 242311
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 705 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO FAR.
CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE TO
OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE IN SHORT ORDER
AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST. SHOWERS INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD WITH CLOUDS AND
PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S/50S ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 348 PM SUNDAY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH
OF A STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST
AREA TOWARDS MORNING...WITH REST OF REGION REMAINING DRY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
HAVE INDICATED HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS WHERE A PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ACCORDINGLY...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW
FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD SEE
READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RISK OF SHOWERS DECREASES WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM
TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN
A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN 925MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 22C WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES OF
- 2 INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE U70S-U80S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND,
KEEPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD IN THE 60S WITH THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M70S-L80S.

SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
AGAIN PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MAXES WILL SEE THE U70S-M80S.

A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
EASTER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NY EARLY
SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT, AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TOWARDS MORNING/AROUND SUNRISE. SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE WESTWARD
INTO NRN NY WITH VCSH POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND 10Z, REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS AT KMSS AND KSLK AROUND 12Z-13Z, BUT AREAS EAST LOOK TO
REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z/MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN
MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

WINDS OUT OF THE SW AT 6-12KTS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AT MOST SITES
OF 18-28KTS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 3-8KTS AND PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 242311
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 705 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO FAR.
CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE TO
OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE IN SHORT ORDER
AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST. SHOWERS INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD WITH CLOUDS AND
PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S/50S ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 348 PM SUNDAY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH
OF A STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST
AREA TOWARDS MORNING...WITH REST OF REGION REMAINING DRY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
HAVE INDICATED HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS WHERE A PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ACCORDINGLY...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW
FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD SEE
READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RISK OF SHOWERS DECREASES WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM
TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN
A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN 925MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 22C WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES OF
- 2 INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE U70S-U80S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND,
KEEPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD IN THE 60S WITH THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M70S-L80S.

SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
AGAIN PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MAXES WILL SEE THE U70S-M80S.

A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
EASTER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NY EARLY
SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT, AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TOWARDS MORNING/AROUND SUNRISE. SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE WESTWARD
INTO NRN NY WITH VCSH POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND 10Z, REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS AT KMSS AND KSLK AROUND 12Z-13Z, BUT AREAS EAST LOOK TO
REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z/MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN
MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

WINDS OUT OF THE SW AT 6-12KTS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AT MOST SITES
OF 18-28KTS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 3-8KTS AND PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 242311
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 705 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO FAR.
CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE TO
OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE IN SHORT ORDER
AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST. SHOWERS INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD WITH CLOUDS AND
PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S/50S ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 348 PM SUNDAY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH
OF A STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST
AREA TOWARDS MORNING...WITH REST OF REGION REMAINING DRY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
HAVE INDICATED HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS WHERE A PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ACCORDINGLY...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW
FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD SEE
READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RISK OF SHOWERS DECREASES WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM
TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN
A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN 925MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 22C WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES OF
- 2 INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE U70S-U80S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND,
KEEPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD IN THE 60S WITH THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M70S-L80S.

SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
AGAIN PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MAXES WILL SEE THE U70S-M80S.

A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
EASTER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NY EARLY
SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT, AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TOWARDS MORNING/AROUND SUNRISE. SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE WESTWARD
INTO NRN NY WITH VCSH POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND 10Z, REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS AT KMSS AND KSLK AROUND 12Z-13Z, BUT AREAS EAST LOOK TO
REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z/MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN
MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

WINDS OUT OF THE SW AT 6-12KTS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AT MOST SITES
OF 18-28KTS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 3-8KTS AND PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 242311
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 705 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO FAR.
CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE TO
OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE IN SHORT ORDER
AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST. SHOWERS INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD WITH CLOUDS AND
PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S/50S ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 348 PM SUNDAY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH
OF A STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST
AREA TOWARDS MORNING...WITH REST OF REGION REMAINING DRY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
HAVE INDICATED HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS WHERE A PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ACCORDINGLY...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW
FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD SEE
READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RISK OF SHOWERS DECREASES WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM
TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN
A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN 925MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 22C WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES OF
- 2 INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE U70S-U80S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND,
KEEPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD IN THE 60S WITH THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M70S-L80S.

SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
AGAIN PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MAXES WILL SEE THE U70S-M80S.

A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
EASTER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NY EARLY
SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT, AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TOWARDS MORNING/AROUND SUNRISE. SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE WESTWARD
INTO NRN NY WITH VCSH POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND 10Z, REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS AT KMSS AND KSLK AROUND 12Z-13Z, BUT AREAS EAST LOOK TO
REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z/MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN
MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

WINDS OUT OF THE SW AT 6-12KTS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AT MOST SITES
OF 18-28KTS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 3-8KTS AND PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 242311
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 705 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO FAR.
CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE TO
OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE IN SHORT ORDER
AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST. SHOWERS INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD WITH CLOUDS AND
PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S/50S ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 348 PM SUNDAY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH
OF A STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST
AREA TOWARDS MORNING...WITH REST OF REGION REMAINING DRY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
HAVE INDICATED HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS WHERE A PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ACCORDINGLY...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW
FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD SEE
READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RISK OF SHOWERS DECREASES WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM
TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN
A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN 925MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 22C WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES OF
- 2 INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE U70S-U80S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND,
KEEPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD IN THE 60S WITH THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M70S-L80S.

SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
AGAIN PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MAXES WILL SEE THE U70S-M80S.

A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
EASTER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NY EARLY
SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT, AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TOWARDS MORNING/AROUND SUNRISE. SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE WESTWARD
INTO NRN NY WITH VCSH POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND 10Z, REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS AT KMSS AND KSLK AROUND 12Z-13Z, BUT AREAS EAST LOOK TO
REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z/MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN
MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

WINDS OUT OF THE SW AT 6-12KTS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AT MOST SITES
OF 18-28KTS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 3-8KTS AND PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 242311
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 705 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO FAR.
CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE TO
OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE IN SHORT ORDER
AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST. SHOWERS INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD WITH CLOUDS AND
PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S/50S ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 348 PM SUNDAY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH
OF A STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST
AREA TOWARDS MORNING...WITH REST OF REGION REMAINING DRY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
HAVE INDICATED HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS WHERE A PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ACCORDINGLY...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW
FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD SEE
READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RISK OF SHOWERS DECREASES WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM
TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN
A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN 925MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 22C WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES OF
- 2 INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE U70S-U80S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND,
KEEPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD IN THE 60S WITH THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M70S-L80S.

SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
AGAIN PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MAXES WILL SEE THE U70S-M80S.

A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
EASTER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NY EARLY
SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT, AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TOWARDS MORNING/AROUND SUNRISE. SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE WESTWARD
INTO NRN NY WITH VCSH POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND 10Z, REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS AT KMSS AND KSLK AROUND 12Z-13Z, BUT AREAS EAST LOOK TO
REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z/MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN
MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

WINDS OUT OF THE SW AT 6-12KTS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AT MOST SITES
OF 18-28KTS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 3-8KTS AND PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 242311
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 705 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO FAR.
CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE TO
OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE IN SHORT ORDER
AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST. SHOWERS INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD WITH CLOUDS AND
PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S/50S ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 348 PM SUNDAY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH
OF A STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST
AREA TOWARDS MORNING...WITH REST OF REGION REMAINING DRY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
HAVE INDICATED HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS WHERE A PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ACCORDINGLY...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW
FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD SEE
READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RISK OF SHOWERS DECREASES WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM
TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN
A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN 925MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 22C WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES OF
- 2 INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE U70S-U80S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND,
KEEPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD IN THE 60S WITH THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M70S-L80S.

SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
AGAIN PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MAXES WILL SEE THE U70S-M80S.

A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
EASTER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NY EARLY
SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT, AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TOWARDS MORNING/AROUND SUNRISE. SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE WESTWARD
INTO NRN NY WITH VCSH POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND 10Z, REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS AT KMSS AND KSLK AROUND 12Z-13Z, BUT AREAS EAST LOOK TO
REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z/MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN
MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

WINDS OUT OF THE SW AT 6-12KTS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AT MOST SITES
OF 18-28KTS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 3-8KTS AND PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 242311
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 705 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO FAR.
CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE TO
OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE IN SHORT ORDER
AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST. SHOWERS INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD WITH CLOUDS AND
PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S/50S ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 348 PM SUNDAY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH
OF A STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST
AREA TOWARDS MORNING...WITH REST OF REGION REMAINING DRY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
HAVE INDICATED HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS WHERE A PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ACCORDINGLY...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW
FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD SEE
READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RISK OF SHOWERS DECREASES WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM
TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN
A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN 925MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 22C WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES OF
- 2 INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE U70S-U80S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND,
KEEPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD IN THE 60S WITH THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M70S-L80S.

SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
AGAIN PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MAXES WILL SEE THE U70S-M80S.

A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
EASTER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NY EARLY
SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT, AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TOWARDS MORNING/AROUND SUNRISE. SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE WESTWARD
INTO NRN NY WITH VCSH POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND 10Z, REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS AT KMSS AND KSLK AROUND 12Z-13Z, BUT AREAS EAST LOOK TO
REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z/MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN
MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

WINDS OUT OF THE SW AT 6-12KTS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AT MOST SITES
OF 18-28KTS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 3-8KTS AND PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 242311
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 705 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO FAR.
CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE TO
OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE IN SHORT ORDER
AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST. SHOWERS INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD WITH CLOUDS AND
PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S/50S ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 348 PM SUNDAY...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH
OF A STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST
AREA TOWARDS MORNING...WITH REST OF REGION REMAINING DRY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
HAVE INDICATED HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS WHERE A PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ACCORDINGLY...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW
FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD SEE
READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RISK OF SHOWERS DECREASES WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM
TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN
A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN 925MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 22C WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES OF
- 2 INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE U70S-U80S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND,
KEEPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD IN THE 60S WITH THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M70S-L80S.

SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
AGAIN PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MAXES WILL SEE THE U70S-M80S.

A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
EASTER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NY EARLY
SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT, AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TOWARDS MORNING/AROUND SUNRISE. SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE WESTWARD
INTO NRN NY WITH VCSH POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND 10Z, REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS AT KMSS AND KSLK AROUND 12Z-13Z, BUT AREAS EAST LOOK TO
REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z/MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN
MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

WINDS OUT OF THE SW AT 6-12KTS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AT MOST SITES
OF 18-28KTS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 3-8KTS AND PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM



000
FXUS61 KBUF 242232
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
632 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...LOOK FOR VERY WARM AND GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST...WARM AND MOIST RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING IS DEVELOPING A BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AND INTO NE OH / NW PA. THIS CAN BEST BE SEEN ON THE CLEVELAND
RADAR EARLY THIS EVENING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WHILE LOW-LEVEL AIR ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
WESTERN NY REMAINS FAIRLY DRY...WITH 30 DEGREE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS...EXPECT THAT OVER TIME AS THIS FRONT LIFTS
NORTH...THE CHANCE FOR TOP-DOWN SATURATION WILL INCREASE. HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT LIFTS
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY...SATURATION WILL BE EASIER TO ACHIEVE AND THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT. ALSO
WITH THE WARMER AIR SURGING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION...THIS WILL
RESULT IN A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

MEMORIAL DAY WILL USHER IN A RETURN TO SUMMER AS THE AREA WILL BE
LOCATED FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE/MID-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LARGELY STYMIE ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH INCREASING
DEWPOINTS ON RETURN FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS FIRING
ALONG THE LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY OTHER
AREA WHERE WE MAY SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...CLOSER TO THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH READINGS HITTING THE MID
TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY WHERE SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP BUMP READINGS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE ONLY
AREAS THAT MAY REMAIN IN THE 70S WILL BE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE
COOLER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE A SYNOPTICALLY ENHANCED
LAKE BREEZE AND CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL FINISH ITS NORTHWARD EXIT
THROUGH THE CWA USHERING IN WARMER...AND MORE HUMID AIR. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
MONDAY EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...FORMING TO THE LEE OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY
SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN WARM
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY WILL HAVE A TASTE OF SUMMER TO THE DAY AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE.
INITIALLY THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED...WITH SUNSHINE AND
CLOUDS AROUND. WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +15C SURFACE HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING SBCAPES 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS
INSTABILITY...AND THE WEAKENING OF THE CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH WIND ALOFT...0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS TO ALLOW THESE STORMS TO
GROW...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE INLAND STRONG STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/LAKE
ERIE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH NO CHANGE
IN AIRMASS THE AIR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE
PRIOR NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS...AND EVEN SOME LIKELY POPS AS MORE FAVORABLE LIFTING WILL BE
FOUND THIS DAY IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COASTLINE EARLY
WEEK...WILL NOW BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TO START THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW SUBTLE SHORTWAVES TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
INLAND AND ALONG LAKE BREEZES WHERE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AIDED BY
LIFT FROM LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW EASTWARD WE SHOULD
NOT BE AS CAPPED AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR STORMS TO BREW. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES POPS IN
THE GRIDS...THOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND 12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A COLD
FRONT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. DIFFERENCES ARE THAT THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE SURFACE WAVES ON
THE FRONT IS SLOWER. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCES POPS FOR BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT NONE THE LESS THIS FRONT
REPRESENTS THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. WARMEST PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL TURN BRIEFLY
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO A MID-LEVEL DECK AROUND 10KFT
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE KBUF/KROC AREA...HOWEVER DRY AIR IN THE
LOW-LEVELS SHOULD KEEP FLIGHT CONDITIONS VFR. AS THE FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...KART SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AFTER 09Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KART WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PUMP UP SFC
DEWPOINTS ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ALONG LAKE ERIE LAKE
BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN SHOULD
LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND BACK
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL KEEP A
RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE RESULT WILL BE
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS FOR BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH WAVES
AVERAGING 2 FEET OR LESS.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK...AND THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE GENERALLY SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED... THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR
NEARLY DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
CHOP...PARTICULARLY ON THE EAST ENDS OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...CHURCH/WOOD
MARINE...CHURCH/WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 242232
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
632 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...LOOK FOR VERY WARM AND GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST...WARM AND MOIST RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING IS DEVELOPING A BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AND INTO NE OH / NW PA. THIS CAN BEST BE SEEN ON THE CLEVELAND
RADAR EARLY THIS EVENING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WHILE LOW-LEVEL AIR ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
WESTERN NY REMAINS FAIRLY DRY...WITH 30 DEGREE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS...EXPECT THAT OVER TIME AS THIS FRONT LIFTS
NORTH...THE CHANCE FOR TOP-DOWN SATURATION WILL INCREASE. HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT LIFTS
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY...SATURATION WILL BE EASIER TO ACHIEVE AND THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT. ALSO
WITH THE WARMER AIR SURGING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION...THIS WILL
RESULT IN A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

MEMORIAL DAY WILL USHER IN A RETURN TO SUMMER AS THE AREA WILL BE
LOCATED FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE/MID-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LARGELY STYMIE ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH INCREASING
DEWPOINTS ON RETURN FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS FIRING
ALONG THE LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY OTHER
AREA WHERE WE MAY SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...CLOSER TO THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH READINGS HITTING THE MID
TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY WHERE SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP BUMP READINGS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE ONLY
AREAS THAT MAY REMAIN IN THE 70S WILL BE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE
COOLER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE A SYNOPTICALLY ENHANCED
LAKE BREEZE AND CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL FINISH ITS NORTHWARD EXIT
THROUGH THE CWA USHERING IN WARMER...AND MORE HUMID AIR. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
MONDAY EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...FORMING TO THE LEE OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY
SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN WARM
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY WILL HAVE A TASTE OF SUMMER TO THE DAY AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE.
INITIALLY THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED...WITH SUNSHINE AND
CLOUDS AROUND. WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +15C SURFACE HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING SBCAPES 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS
INSTABILITY...AND THE WEAKENING OF THE CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH WIND ALOFT...0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS TO ALLOW THESE STORMS TO
GROW...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE INLAND STRONG STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/LAKE
ERIE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH NO CHANGE
IN AIRMASS THE AIR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE
PRIOR NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS...AND EVEN SOME LIKELY POPS AS MORE FAVORABLE LIFTING WILL BE
FOUND THIS DAY IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COASTLINE EARLY
WEEK...WILL NOW BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TO START THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW SUBTLE SHORTWAVES TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
INLAND AND ALONG LAKE BREEZES WHERE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AIDED BY
LIFT FROM LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW EASTWARD WE SHOULD
NOT BE AS CAPPED AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR STORMS TO BREW. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES POPS IN
THE GRIDS...THOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND 12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A COLD
FRONT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. DIFFERENCES ARE THAT THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE SURFACE WAVES ON
THE FRONT IS SLOWER. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCES POPS FOR BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT NONE THE LESS THIS FRONT
REPRESENTS THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. WARMEST PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL TURN BRIEFLY
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO A MID-LEVEL DECK AROUND 10KFT
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE KBUF/KROC AREA...HOWEVER DRY AIR IN THE
LOW-LEVELS SHOULD KEEP FLIGHT CONDITIONS VFR. AS THE FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...KART SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AFTER 09Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KART WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PUMP UP SFC
DEWPOINTS ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ALONG LAKE ERIE LAKE
BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN SHOULD
LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND BACK
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL KEEP A
RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE RESULT WILL BE
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS FOR BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH WAVES
AVERAGING 2 FEET OR LESS.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK...AND THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE GENERALLY SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED... THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR
NEARLY DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
CHOP...PARTICULARLY ON THE EAST ENDS OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...CHURCH/WOOD
MARINE...CHURCH/WOOD



000
FXUS61 KBUF 242232
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
632 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...LOOK FOR VERY WARM AND GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST...WARM AND MOIST RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING IS DEVELOPING A BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AND INTO NE OH / NW PA. THIS CAN BEST BE SEEN ON THE CLEVELAND
RADAR EARLY THIS EVENING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WHILE LOW-LEVEL AIR ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
WESTERN NY REMAINS FAIRLY DRY...WITH 30 DEGREE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS...EXPECT THAT OVER TIME AS THIS FRONT LIFTS
NORTH...THE CHANCE FOR TOP-DOWN SATURATION WILL INCREASE. HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT LIFTS
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY...SATURATION WILL BE EASIER TO ACHIEVE AND THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT. ALSO
WITH THE WARMER AIR SURGING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION...THIS WILL
RESULT IN A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

MEMORIAL DAY WILL USHER IN A RETURN TO SUMMER AS THE AREA WILL BE
LOCATED FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE/MID-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LARGELY STYMIE ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH INCREASING
DEWPOINTS ON RETURN FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS FIRING
ALONG THE LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY OTHER
AREA WHERE WE MAY SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...CLOSER TO THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH READINGS HITTING THE MID
TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY WHERE SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP BUMP READINGS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE ONLY
AREAS THAT MAY REMAIN IN THE 70S WILL BE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE
COOLER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE A SYNOPTICALLY ENHANCED
LAKE BREEZE AND CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL FINISH ITS NORTHWARD EXIT
THROUGH THE CWA USHERING IN WARMER...AND MORE HUMID AIR. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
MONDAY EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...FORMING TO THE LEE OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY
SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN WARM
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY WILL HAVE A TASTE OF SUMMER TO THE DAY AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE.
INITIALLY THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED...WITH SUNSHINE AND
CLOUDS AROUND. WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +15C SURFACE HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING SBCAPES 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS
INSTABILITY...AND THE WEAKENING OF THE CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH WIND ALOFT...0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS TO ALLOW THESE STORMS TO
GROW...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE INLAND STRONG STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/LAKE
ERIE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH NO CHANGE
IN AIRMASS THE AIR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE
PRIOR NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS...AND EVEN SOME LIKELY POPS AS MORE FAVORABLE LIFTING WILL BE
FOUND THIS DAY IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COASTLINE EARLY
WEEK...WILL NOW BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TO START THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW SUBTLE SHORTWAVES TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
INLAND AND ALONG LAKE BREEZES WHERE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AIDED BY
LIFT FROM LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW EASTWARD WE SHOULD
NOT BE AS CAPPED AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR STORMS TO BREW. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES POPS IN
THE GRIDS...THOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND 12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A COLD
FRONT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. DIFFERENCES ARE THAT THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE SURFACE WAVES ON
THE FRONT IS SLOWER. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCES POPS FOR BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT NONE THE LESS THIS FRONT
REPRESENTS THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. WARMEST PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL TURN BRIEFLY
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO A MID-LEVEL DECK AROUND 10KFT
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE KBUF/KROC AREA...HOWEVER DRY AIR IN THE
LOW-LEVELS SHOULD KEEP FLIGHT CONDITIONS VFR. AS THE FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...KART SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AFTER 09Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KART WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PUMP UP SFC
DEWPOINTS ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ALONG LAKE ERIE LAKE
BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN SHOULD
LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND BACK
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL KEEP A
RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE RESULT WILL BE
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS FOR BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH WAVES
AVERAGING 2 FEET OR LESS.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK...AND THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE GENERALLY SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED... THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR
NEARLY DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
CHOP...PARTICULARLY ON THE EAST ENDS OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...CHURCH/WOOD
MARINE...CHURCH/WOOD



000
FXUS61 KBUF 242232
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
632 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...LOOK FOR VERY WARM AND GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST...WARM AND MOIST RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING IS DEVELOPING A BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AND INTO NE OH / NW PA. THIS CAN BEST BE SEEN ON THE CLEVELAND
RADAR EARLY THIS EVENING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WHILE LOW-LEVEL AIR ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
WESTERN NY REMAINS FAIRLY DRY...WITH 30 DEGREE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS...EXPECT THAT OVER TIME AS THIS FRONT LIFTS
NORTH...THE CHANCE FOR TOP-DOWN SATURATION WILL INCREASE. HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT LIFTS
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY...SATURATION WILL BE EASIER TO ACHIEVE AND THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT. ALSO
WITH THE WARMER AIR SURGING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION...THIS WILL
RESULT IN A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

MEMORIAL DAY WILL USHER IN A RETURN TO SUMMER AS THE AREA WILL BE
LOCATED FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE/MID-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LARGELY STYMIE ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH INCREASING
DEWPOINTS ON RETURN FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS FIRING
ALONG THE LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY OTHER
AREA WHERE WE MAY SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...CLOSER TO THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH READINGS HITTING THE MID
TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY WHERE SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP BUMP READINGS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE ONLY
AREAS THAT MAY REMAIN IN THE 70S WILL BE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE
COOLER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE A SYNOPTICALLY ENHANCED
LAKE BREEZE AND CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL FINISH ITS NORTHWARD EXIT
THROUGH THE CWA USHERING IN WARMER...AND MORE HUMID AIR. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
MONDAY EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...FORMING TO THE LEE OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY
SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN WARM
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY WILL HAVE A TASTE OF SUMMER TO THE DAY AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE.
INITIALLY THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED...WITH SUNSHINE AND
CLOUDS AROUND. WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +15C SURFACE HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING SBCAPES 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS
INSTABILITY...AND THE WEAKENING OF THE CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH WIND ALOFT...0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS TO ALLOW THESE STORMS TO
GROW...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE INLAND STRONG STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/LAKE
ERIE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH NO CHANGE
IN AIRMASS THE AIR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE
PRIOR NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS...AND EVEN SOME LIKELY POPS AS MORE FAVORABLE LIFTING WILL BE
FOUND THIS DAY IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COASTLINE EARLY
WEEK...WILL NOW BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TO START THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW SUBTLE SHORTWAVES TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
INLAND AND ALONG LAKE BREEZES WHERE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AIDED BY
LIFT FROM LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW EASTWARD WE SHOULD
NOT BE AS CAPPED AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR STORMS TO BREW. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES POPS IN
THE GRIDS...THOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND 12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A COLD
FRONT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. DIFFERENCES ARE THAT THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE SURFACE WAVES ON
THE FRONT IS SLOWER. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCES POPS FOR BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT NONE THE LESS THIS FRONT
REPRESENTS THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. WARMEST PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL TURN BRIEFLY
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO A MID-LEVEL DECK AROUND 10KFT
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE KBUF/KROC AREA...HOWEVER DRY AIR IN THE
LOW-LEVELS SHOULD KEEP FLIGHT CONDITIONS VFR. AS THE FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...KART SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AFTER 09Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KART WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PUMP UP SFC
DEWPOINTS ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ALONG LAKE ERIE LAKE
BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN SHOULD
LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND BACK
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL KEEP A
RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE RESULT WILL BE
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS FOR BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH WAVES
AVERAGING 2 FEET OR LESS.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK...AND THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE GENERALLY SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED... THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR
NEARLY DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
CHOP...PARTICULARLY ON THE EAST ENDS OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...CHURCH/WOOD
MARINE...CHURCH/WOOD



000
FXUS61 KBUF 242232
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
632 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...LOOK FOR VERY WARM AND GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST...WARM AND MOIST RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING IS DEVELOPING A BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AND INTO NE OH / NW PA. THIS CAN BEST BE SEEN ON THE CLEVELAND
RADAR EARLY THIS EVENING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WHILE LOW-LEVEL AIR ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
WESTERN NY REMAINS FAIRLY DRY...WITH 30 DEGREE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS...EXPECT THAT OVER TIME AS THIS FRONT LIFTS
NORTH...THE CHANCE FOR TOP-DOWN SATURATION WILL INCREASE. HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT LIFTS
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY...SATURATION WILL BE EASIER TO ACHIEVE AND THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT. ALSO
WITH THE WARMER AIR SURGING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION...THIS WILL
RESULT IN A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

MEMORIAL DAY WILL USHER IN A RETURN TO SUMMER AS THE AREA WILL BE
LOCATED FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE/MID-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LARGELY STYMIE ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH INCREASING
DEWPOINTS ON RETURN FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS FIRING
ALONG THE LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY OTHER
AREA WHERE WE MAY SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...CLOSER TO THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH READINGS HITTING THE MID
TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY WHERE SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP BUMP READINGS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE ONLY
AREAS THAT MAY REMAIN IN THE 70S WILL BE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE
COOLER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE A SYNOPTICALLY ENHANCED
LAKE BREEZE AND CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL FINISH ITS NORTHWARD EXIT
THROUGH THE CWA USHERING IN WARMER...AND MORE HUMID AIR. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
MONDAY EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...FORMING TO THE LEE OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY
SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN WARM
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY WILL HAVE A TASTE OF SUMMER TO THE DAY AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE.
INITIALLY THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED...WITH SUNSHINE AND
CLOUDS AROUND. WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +15C SURFACE HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING SBCAPES 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS
INSTABILITY...AND THE WEAKENING OF THE CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH WIND ALOFT...0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS TO ALLOW THESE STORMS TO
GROW...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE INLAND STRONG STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/LAKE
ERIE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH NO CHANGE
IN AIRMASS THE AIR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE
PRIOR NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS...AND EVEN SOME LIKELY POPS AS MORE FAVORABLE LIFTING WILL BE
FOUND THIS DAY IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COASTLINE EARLY
WEEK...WILL NOW BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TO START THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW SUBTLE SHORTWAVES TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
INLAND AND ALONG LAKE BREEZES WHERE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AIDED BY
LIFT FROM LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW EASTWARD WE SHOULD
NOT BE AS CAPPED AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR STORMS TO BREW. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES POPS IN
THE GRIDS...THOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND 12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A COLD
FRONT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. DIFFERENCES ARE THAT THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE SURFACE WAVES ON
THE FRONT IS SLOWER. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCES POPS FOR BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT NONE THE LESS THIS FRONT
REPRESENTS THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. WARMEST PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL TURN BRIEFLY
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO A MID-LEVEL DECK AROUND 10KFT
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE KBUF/KROC AREA...HOWEVER DRY AIR IN THE
LOW-LEVELS SHOULD KEEP FLIGHT CONDITIONS VFR. AS THE FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...KART SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AFTER 09Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KART WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PUMP UP SFC
DEWPOINTS ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ALONG LAKE ERIE LAKE
BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN SHOULD
LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND BACK
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL KEEP A
RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE RESULT WILL BE
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS FOR BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH WAVES
AVERAGING 2 FEET OR LESS.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK...AND THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE GENERALLY SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED... THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR
NEARLY DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
CHOP...PARTICULARLY ON THE EAST ENDS OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...CHURCH/WOOD
MARINE...CHURCH/WOOD



000
FXUS61 KBUF 242232
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
632 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...LOOK FOR VERY WARM AND GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST...WARM AND MOIST RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING IS DEVELOPING A BAND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AND INTO NE OH / NW PA. THIS CAN BEST BE SEEN ON THE CLEVELAND
RADAR EARLY THIS EVENING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WHILE LOW-LEVEL AIR ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
WESTERN NY REMAINS FAIRLY DRY...WITH 30 DEGREE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS...EXPECT THAT OVER TIME AS THIS FRONT LIFTS
NORTH...THE CHANCE FOR TOP-DOWN SATURATION WILL INCREASE. HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT LIFTS
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY...SATURATION WILL BE EASIER TO ACHIEVE AND THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT. ALSO
WITH THE WARMER AIR SURGING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION...THIS WILL
RESULT IN A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

MEMORIAL DAY WILL USHER IN A RETURN TO SUMMER AS THE AREA WILL BE
LOCATED FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE/MID-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LARGELY STYMIE ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH INCREASING
DEWPOINTS ON RETURN FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS FIRING
ALONG THE LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY OTHER
AREA WHERE WE MAY SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...CLOSER TO THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH READINGS HITTING THE MID
TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY WHERE SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP BUMP READINGS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE ONLY
AREAS THAT MAY REMAIN IN THE 70S WILL BE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE
COOLER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE A SYNOPTICALLY ENHANCED
LAKE BREEZE AND CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL FINISH ITS NORTHWARD EXIT
THROUGH THE CWA USHERING IN WARMER...AND MORE HUMID AIR. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
MONDAY EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...FORMING TO THE LEE OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY
SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN WARM
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY WILL HAVE A TASTE OF SUMMER TO THE DAY AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE.
INITIALLY THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED...WITH SUNSHINE AND
CLOUDS AROUND. WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +15C SURFACE HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING SBCAPES 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS
INSTABILITY...AND THE WEAKENING OF THE CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH WIND ALOFT...0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS TO ALLOW THESE STORMS TO
GROW...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE INLAND STRONG STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/LAKE
ERIE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH NO CHANGE
IN AIRMASS THE AIR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE
PRIOR NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS...AND EVEN SOME LIKELY POPS AS MORE FAVORABLE LIFTING WILL BE
FOUND THIS DAY IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COASTLINE EARLY
WEEK...WILL NOW BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TO START THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW SUBTLE SHORTWAVES TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
INLAND AND ALONG LAKE BREEZES WHERE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AIDED BY
LIFT FROM LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW EASTWARD WE SHOULD
NOT BE AS CAPPED AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR STORMS TO BREW. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES POPS IN
THE GRIDS...THOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND 12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A COLD
FRONT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. DIFFERENCES ARE THAT THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE SURFACE WAVES ON
THE FRONT IS SLOWER. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCES POPS FOR BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT NONE THE LESS THIS FRONT
REPRESENTS THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. WARMEST PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL TURN BRIEFLY
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO A MID-LEVEL DECK AROUND 10KFT
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE KBUF/KROC AREA...HOWEVER DRY AIR IN THE
LOW-LEVELS SHOULD KEEP FLIGHT CONDITIONS VFR. AS THE FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...KART SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AFTER 09Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KART WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PUMP UP SFC
DEWPOINTS ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ALONG LAKE ERIE LAKE
BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN SHOULD
LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND BACK
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL KEEP A
RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE RESULT WILL BE
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS FOR BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH WAVES
AVERAGING 2 FEET OR LESS.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK...AND THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE GENERALLY SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED... THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR
NEARLY DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
CHOP...PARTICULARLY ON THE EAST ENDS OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...CHURCH/WOOD
MARINE...CHURCH/WOOD



000
FXUS61 KBUF 242150
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
550 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...BRINGING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...LOOK FOR VERY WARM
AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST...WARM AND MOIST
RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNSHINE IS BECOMING MORE FILTERED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO STREAM ACROSS
THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...HOWEVER AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THUS THE BULK
OF THE ISENTROPIC UPLIFT WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS
EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE OTTAWA VALLEY...EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE. THE WARM AIR SURGING
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

MEMORIAL DAY WILL USHER IN A RETURN TO SUMMER AS THE AREA WILL BE
LOCATED FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE/MID-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LARGELY STYMIE ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH INCREASING
DEWPOINTS ON RETURN FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS FIRING
ALONG THE LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY OTHER
AREA WHERE WE MAY SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...CLOSER TO THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH READINGS HITTING THE MID
TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY WHERE SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP BUMP READINGS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE ONLY
AREAS THAT MAY REMAIN IN THE 70S WILL BE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE
COOLER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE A SYNOPTICALLY ENHANCED
LAKE BREEZE AND CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL FINISH ITS NORTHWARD EXIT
THROUGH THE CWA USHERING IN WARMER...AND MORE HUMID AIR. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
MONDAY EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...FORMING TO THE LEE OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY
SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN WARM
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY WILL HAVE A TASTE OF SUMMER TO THE DAY AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE.
INITIALLY THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED...WITH SUNSHINE AND
CLOUDS AROUND. WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +15C SURFACE HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING SBCAPES 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS
INSTABILITY...AND THE WEAKENING OF THE CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH WIND ALOFT...0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS TO ALLOW THESE STORMS TO
GROW...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE INLAND STRONG STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/LAKE
ERIE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH NO CHANGE
IN AIRMASS THE AIR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE
PRIOR NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS...AND EVEN SOME LIKELY POPS AS MORE FAVORABLE LIFTING WILL BE
FOUND THIS DAY IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COASTLINE EARLY WEEK...WILL NOW BE OFF
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TO START THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST
CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE INLAND AND ALONG LAKE BREEZES
WHERE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AIDED BY LIFT FROM LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATION SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW EASTWARD WE SHOULD NOT BE AS CAPPED AS EARLIER
IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STORMS TO BREW.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES POPS IN THE GRIDS...THOUGH MUCH OF THE
TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND 12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A COLD
FRONT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. DIFFERENCES ARE THAT THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE SURFACE WAVES ON
THE FRONT IS SLOWER. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCES POPS FOR BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT NONE THE LESS THIS FRONT
REPRESENTS THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. WARMEST PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL TURN BRIEFLY
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AND LOWER INTO A MID-LEVEL DECK AROUND 10KFT LATER THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE BULK
OF THE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC...SUGGESTING THAT
THE BULK OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS CANADA LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. THAT SAID THE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE AREA TO WARRANT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PUMP
UP SFC DEWPOINTS ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ALONG LAKE ERIE
LAKE BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN
SHOULD LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND BACK
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL KEEP A
RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE RESULT WILL BE
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS FOR BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH WAVES
AVERAGING 2 FEET OR LESS.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK...AND THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE GENERALLY SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED... THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR
NEARLY DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
CHOP...PARTICULARLY ON THE EAST ENDS OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...CHURCH/WOOD



000
FXUS61 KBUF 242150
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
550 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...BRINGING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...LOOK FOR VERY WARM
AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST...WARM AND MOIST
RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNSHINE IS BECOMING MORE FILTERED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO STREAM ACROSS
THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...HOWEVER AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THUS THE BULK
OF THE ISENTROPIC UPLIFT WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS
EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE OTTAWA VALLEY...EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE. THE WARM AIR SURGING
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

MEMORIAL DAY WILL USHER IN A RETURN TO SUMMER AS THE AREA WILL BE
LOCATED FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE/MID-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LARGELY STYMIE ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH INCREASING
DEWPOINTS ON RETURN FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS FIRING
ALONG THE LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY OTHER
AREA WHERE WE MAY SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...CLOSER TO THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH READINGS HITTING THE MID
TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY WHERE SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP BUMP READINGS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE ONLY
AREAS THAT MAY REMAIN IN THE 70S WILL BE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE
COOLER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE A SYNOPTICALLY ENHANCED
LAKE BREEZE AND CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL FINISH ITS NORTHWARD EXIT
THROUGH THE CWA USHERING IN WARMER...AND MORE HUMID AIR. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
MONDAY EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...FORMING TO THE LEE OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY
SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN WARM
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY WILL HAVE A TASTE OF SUMMER TO THE DAY AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE.
INITIALLY THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED...WITH SUNSHINE AND
CLOUDS AROUND. WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +15C SURFACE HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING SBCAPES 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS
INSTABILITY...AND THE WEAKENING OF THE CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH WIND ALOFT...0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS TO ALLOW THESE STORMS TO
GROW...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE INLAND STRONG STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/LAKE
ERIE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH NO CHANGE
IN AIRMASS THE AIR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE
PRIOR NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS...AND EVEN SOME LIKELY POPS AS MORE FAVORABLE LIFTING WILL BE
FOUND THIS DAY IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COASTLINE EARLY WEEK...WILL NOW BE OFF
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TO START THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST
CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE INLAND AND ALONG LAKE BREEZES
WHERE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AIDED BY LIFT FROM LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATION SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW EASTWARD WE SHOULD NOT BE AS CAPPED AS EARLIER
IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STORMS TO BREW.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES POPS IN THE GRIDS...THOUGH MUCH OF THE
TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND 12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A COLD
FRONT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. DIFFERENCES ARE THAT THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE SURFACE WAVES ON
THE FRONT IS SLOWER. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCES POPS FOR BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT NONE THE LESS THIS FRONT
REPRESENTS THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. WARMEST PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL TURN BRIEFLY
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AND LOWER INTO A MID-LEVEL DECK AROUND 10KFT LATER THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE BULK
OF THE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC...SUGGESTING THAT
THE BULK OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS CANADA LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. THAT SAID THE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE AREA TO WARRANT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PUMP
UP SFC DEWPOINTS ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ALONG LAKE ERIE
LAKE BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN
SHOULD LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND BACK
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL KEEP A
RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE RESULT WILL BE
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS FOR BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH WAVES
AVERAGING 2 FEET OR LESS.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK...AND THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE GENERALLY SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED... THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR
NEARLY DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
CHOP...PARTICULARLY ON THE EAST ENDS OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...CHURCH/WOOD




000
FXUS61 KOKX 242103
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
503 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE HIGH THEN MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CIRRUS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO OUR
WEST OVER THE TRI-STATE...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF BREAKS/DISSIPATION TONIGHT. SO GOING WITH A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT FORMATION AT AREA ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY...THEN
SLIDES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
KEEP THINGS DRY.

DO EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CIRRUS SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST. FOR HIGHS TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF
MIXING DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF WARMER MET/MAV/EKD GUIDANCE. HIGHS
SHOULD BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...WHICH WOULD
PLACE THEM AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SHOULD SEE GUSTY
WINDS WITH SEABREEZE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
TO 30 MPH...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE NEARSHORE. A
40-45KT JET AT 1000 FT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE GUSTINESS OF THE
SEABREEZE.

MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR MONDAY NIGHT IS WHETHER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORM WITH THIRD NIGHT OF ONSHORE FLOW. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE
BACKED AWAY FROM THIS IDEA...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF DEBRIS
CIRRUS WORKING ITS WAY UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE - SO WENT WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER. FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED...WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER EAST COAST RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SOUTHERLY
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH WELL ESTABLISHED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DIURNALLY DRIVE AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AROUND THE
HIGH AS ENERGY MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY...ALLOWING A COUPLE OF WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS RESULTS IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA WHILE THE SOUTHERN
FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THEN WITH
THE WEAK FLOW THE NEXT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS
RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING
MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SW FLOW FOR MOST TERMINALS. SEA BREEZES HAVE PASSED THROUGH
KISP/KBDR/KGON/KJFK...AND SHOULD PASS THROUGH KHPN RIGHT AROUND 20Z.
SEA BREEZES CURRENTLY NOT FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH KEWR/KTEB...BUT
THIS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY AFTER 22Z. SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRING AT KTEB...BUT CHANCES OVERALL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
SHIFT IN TAFS.

WINDS LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET TO UNDER 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. S/SW WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM EACH
AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY NW OF CITY TERMINALS TUE AND WED. COASTAL
SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...WITH A PERSISTENT SW FLOW.

WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE PASSAGE OF A 40-45 KT JET AT 1000 FT. AT
THE SAME TIME WILL BE FAIRLY DEEPLY INVERTED...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE
THE AMOUNT OF THIS JET THAT MIXES DOWN...BUT WITH THE WIND MAX AT
OR JUST UNDER THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE...MORE MIXING COULD OCCUR IN
THIS SCENARIO THAN ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT.

BASED ON THIS HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 18Z
MONDAY-10Z TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT AS WELL. ON THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTS TO 20 KT...WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT
THAT 25 KT GUSTS END UP BEING MORE FREQUENT THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS UNDER SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
HOWEVER...NEARSHORE WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

ON GOING SMALL CRAFT SEAS TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WATERS AND A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
5 FT THURSDAY NIGHT. SUB SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO LATE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OUTSIDE OF LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT REMAIN
BELOW 30 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS...SO THE ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE
SPREAD CONTINUES THERE INTO THIS EVENING.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE 10-15
PERCENT OVER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL BE 10-15 MPH
STRONGER...INCLUDING THE GUSTS. IF DEEPER MIXING OCCURS THAN IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE
SPREAD COULD BE REALIZED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MET



000
FXUS61 KOKX 242103
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
503 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE HIGH THEN MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CIRRUS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO OUR
WEST OVER THE TRI-STATE...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF BREAKS/DISSIPATION TONIGHT. SO GOING WITH A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT FORMATION AT AREA ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY...THEN
SLIDES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
KEEP THINGS DRY.

DO EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CIRRUS SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST. FOR HIGHS TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF
MIXING DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF WARMER MET/MAV/EKD GUIDANCE. HIGHS
SHOULD BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...WHICH WOULD
PLACE THEM AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SHOULD SEE GUSTY
WINDS WITH SEABREEZE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
TO 30 MPH...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE NEARSHORE. A
40-45KT JET AT 1000 FT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE GUSTINESS OF THE
SEABREEZE.

MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR MONDAY NIGHT IS WHETHER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORM WITH THIRD NIGHT OF ONSHORE FLOW. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE
BACKED AWAY FROM THIS IDEA...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF DEBRIS
CIRRUS WORKING ITS WAY UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE - SO WENT WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER. FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED...WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER EAST COAST RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SOUTHERLY
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH WELL ESTABLISHED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DIURNALLY DRIVE AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AROUND THE
HIGH AS ENERGY MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY...ALLOWING A COUPLE OF WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS RESULTS IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA WHILE THE SOUTHERN
FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THEN WITH
THE WEAK FLOW THE NEXT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS
RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING
MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SW FLOW FOR MOST TERMINALS. SEA BREEZES HAVE PASSED THROUGH
KISP/KBDR/KGON/KJFK...AND SHOULD PASS THROUGH KHPN RIGHT AROUND 20Z.
SEA BREEZES CURRENTLY NOT FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH KEWR/KTEB...BUT
THIS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY AFTER 22Z. SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRING AT KTEB...BUT CHANCES OVERALL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
SHIFT IN TAFS.

WINDS LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET TO UNDER 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. S/SW WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM EACH
AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY NW OF CITY TERMINALS TUE AND WED. COASTAL
SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...WITH A PERSISTENT SW FLOW.

WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE PASSAGE OF A 40-45 KT JET AT 1000 FT. AT
THE SAME TIME WILL BE FAIRLY DEEPLY INVERTED...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE
THE AMOUNT OF THIS JET THAT MIXES DOWN...BUT WITH THE WIND MAX AT
OR JUST UNDER THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE...MORE MIXING COULD OCCUR IN
THIS SCENARIO THAN ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT.

BASED ON THIS HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 18Z
MONDAY-10Z TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT AS WELL. ON THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTS TO 20 KT...WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT
THAT 25 KT GUSTS END UP BEING MORE FREQUENT THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS UNDER SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
HOWEVER...NEARSHORE WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

ON GOING SMALL CRAFT SEAS TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WATERS AND A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
5 FT THURSDAY NIGHT. SUB SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO LATE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OUTSIDE OF LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT REMAIN
BELOW 30 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS...SO THE ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE
SPREAD CONTINUES THERE INTO THIS EVENING.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE 10-15
PERCENT OVER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL BE 10-15 MPH
STRONGER...INCLUDING THE GUSTS. IF DEEPER MIXING OCCURS THAN IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE
SPREAD COULD BE REALIZED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MET




000
FXUS61 KBUF 242000
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
400 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...BRINGING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...LOOK FOR VERY WARM
AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST...WARM AND MOIST
RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNSHINE IS BECOMING MORE FILTERED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO STREAM ACROSS
THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...HOWEVER AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THUS THE BULK
OF THE ISENTROPIC UPLIFT WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS
EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE OTTAWA VALLEY...EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE. THE WARM AIR SURGING
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE MEMORIAL DAY WILL USHER IN A RETURN TO SUMMER AS THE AREA WILL
LOCATED FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE/MID-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LARGELY STYMIE ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH INCREASING
DEWPOINTS ON RETURN FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS FIRING
ALONG THE LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY OTHER
AREA WHERE WE MAY SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...CLOSER TO THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH READINGS HITTING THE MID
TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY WHERE SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP BUMP READINGS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE ONLY
AREAS THAT MAY REMAIN IN THE 70S WILL BE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE
COOLER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE A SYNOPTICALLY ENHANCED
LAKE BREEZE AND CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL FINISH ITS NORTHWARD EXIT
THROUGH THE CWA USHERING IN WARMER...AND MORE HUMID AIR. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
MONDAY EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...FORMING TO THE LEE OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY
SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN WARM
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY WILL HAVE A TASTE OF SUMMER TO THE DAY AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE.
INITIALLY THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED...WITH SUNSHINE AND
CLOUDS AROUND. WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +15C SURFACE HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING SBCAPES 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS
INSTABILITY...AND THE WEAKENING OF THE CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH WIND ALOFT...0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS TO ALLOW THESE STORMS TO
GROW...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE INLAND STRONG STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/LAKE
ERIE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH NO CHANGE
IN AIRMASS THE AIR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE
PRIOR NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS...AND EVEN SOME LIKELY POPS AS MORE FAVORABLE LIFTING WILL BE
FOUND THIS DAY IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COASTLINE EARLY WEEK...WILL NOW BE OFF
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TO START THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST
CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE INLAND AND ALONG LAKE BREEZES
WHERE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AIDED BY LIFT FROM LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATION SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW EASTWARD WE SHOULD NOT BE AS CAPPED AS EARLIER
IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STORMS TO BREW.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES POPS IN THE GRIDS...THOUGH MUCH OF THE
TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND 12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A COLD
FRONT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. DIFFERENCES ARE THAT THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE SURFACE WAVES ON
THE FRONT IS SLOWER. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCES POPS FOR BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT NONE THE LESS THIS FRONT
REPRESENTS THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. WARMEST PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL TURN BRIEFLY
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AND LOWER INTO A MID-LEVEL DECK AROUND 10KFT LATER THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE BULK
OF THE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC...SUGGESTING THAT
THE BULK OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS CANADA LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. THAT SAID THE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE AREA TO WARRANT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PUMP
UP SFC DEWPOINTS ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ALONG LAKE ERIE
LAKE BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN
SHOULD LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER WHERE PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
LAKE BREEZE. AS WITH YESTERDAY...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND
SUNDOWN.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
EXTEND BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS
WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE
RESULT WILL BE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS FOR BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO WITH WAVES AVERAGING 2 FEET OR LESS.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK...AND THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE GENERALLY SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED... THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR
NEARLY DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
CHOP...PARTICULARLY ON THE EAST ENDS OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-
         024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD



000
FXUS61 KBUF 242000
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
400 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...BRINGING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...LOOK FOR VERY WARM
AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST...WARM AND MOIST
RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNSHINE IS BECOMING MORE FILTERED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO STREAM ACROSS
THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...HOWEVER AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THUS THE BULK
OF THE ISENTROPIC UPLIFT WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS
EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE OTTAWA VALLEY...EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE. THE WARM AIR SURGING
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE MEMORIAL DAY WILL USHER IN A RETURN TO SUMMER AS THE AREA WILL
LOCATED FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE/MID-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LARGELY STYMIE ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH INCREASING
DEWPOINTS ON RETURN FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS FIRING
ALONG THE LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY OTHER
AREA WHERE WE MAY SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...CLOSER TO THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH READINGS HITTING THE MID
TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY WHERE SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP BUMP READINGS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE ONLY
AREAS THAT MAY REMAIN IN THE 70S WILL BE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE
COOLER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE A SYNOPTICALLY ENHANCED
LAKE BREEZE AND CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL FINISH ITS NORTHWARD EXIT
THROUGH THE CWA USHERING IN WARMER...AND MORE HUMID AIR. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
MONDAY EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...FORMING TO THE LEE OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY
SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN WARM
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY WILL HAVE A TASTE OF SUMMER TO THE DAY AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE.
INITIALLY THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED...WITH SUNSHINE AND
CLOUDS AROUND. WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +15C SURFACE HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING SBCAPES 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS
INSTABILITY...AND THE WEAKENING OF THE CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH WIND ALOFT...0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS TO ALLOW THESE STORMS TO
GROW...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE INLAND STRONG STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/LAKE
ERIE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH NO CHANGE
IN AIRMASS THE AIR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE
PRIOR NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS...AND EVEN SOME LIKELY POPS AS MORE FAVORABLE LIFTING WILL BE
FOUND THIS DAY IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COASTLINE EARLY WEEK...WILL NOW BE OFF
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TO START THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST
CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE INLAND AND ALONG LAKE BREEZES
WHERE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AIDED BY LIFT FROM LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATION SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW EASTWARD WE SHOULD NOT BE AS CAPPED AS EARLIER
IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STORMS TO BREW.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES POPS IN THE GRIDS...THOUGH MUCH OF THE
TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND 12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A COLD
FRONT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. DIFFERENCES ARE THAT THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE SURFACE WAVES ON
THE FRONT IS SLOWER. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCES POPS FOR BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT NONE THE LESS THIS FRONT
REPRESENTS THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. WARMEST PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL TURN BRIEFLY
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AND LOWER INTO A MID-LEVEL DECK AROUND 10KFT LATER THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE BULK
OF THE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC...SUGGESTING THAT
THE BULK OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS CANADA LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. THAT SAID THE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE AREA TO WARRANT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PUMP
UP SFC DEWPOINTS ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ALONG LAKE ERIE
LAKE BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN
SHOULD LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER WHERE PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
LAKE BREEZE. AS WITH YESTERDAY...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND
SUNDOWN.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
EXTEND BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS
WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE
RESULT WILL BE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS FOR BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO WITH WAVES AVERAGING 2 FEET OR LESS.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK...AND THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE GENERALLY SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED... THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR
NEARLY DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
CHOP...PARTICULARLY ON THE EAST ENDS OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-
         024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 242000
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
400 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...BRINGING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...LOOK FOR VERY WARM
AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST...WARM AND MOIST
RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNSHINE IS BECOMING MORE FILTERED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO STREAM ACROSS
THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...HOWEVER AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THUS THE BULK
OF THE ISENTROPIC UPLIFT WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS
EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE OTTAWA VALLEY...EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE. THE WARM AIR SURGING
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE MEMORIAL DAY WILL USHER IN A RETURN TO SUMMER AS THE AREA WILL
LOCATED FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE/MID-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LARGELY STYMIE ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH INCREASING
DEWPOINTS ON RETURN FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS FIRING
ALONG THE LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY OTHER
AREA WHERE WE MAY SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...CLOSER TO THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH READINGS HITTING THE MID
TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY WHERE SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP BUMP READINGS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE ONLY
AREAS THAT MAY REMAIN IN THE 70S WILL BE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE
COOLER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE A SYNOPTICALLY ENHANCED
LAKE BREEZE AND CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL FINISH ITS NORTHWARD EXIT
THROUGH THE CWA USHERING IN WARMER...AND MORE HUMID AIR. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
MONDAY EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...FORMING TO THE LEE OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY
SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN WARM
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY WILL HAVE A TASTE OF SUMMER TO THE DAY AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE.
INITIALLY THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED...WITH SUNSHINE AND
CLOUDS AROUND. WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +15C SURFACE HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING SBCAPES 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS
INSTABILITY...AND THE WEAKENING OF THE CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH WIND ALOFT...0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS TO ALLOW THESE STORMS TO
GROW...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE INLAND STRONG STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/LAKE
ERIE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH NO CHANGE
IN AIRMASS THE AIR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE
PRIOR NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS...AND EVEN SOME LIKELY POPS AS MORE FAVORABLE LIFTING WILL BE
FOUND THIS DAY IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COASTLINE EARLY WEEK...WILL NOW BE OFF
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TO START THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST
CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE INLAND AND ALONG LAKE BREEZES
WHERE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AIDED BY LIFT FROM LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATION SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW EASTWARD WE SHOULD NOT BE AS CAPPED AS EARLIER
IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STORMS TO BREW.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES POPS IN THE GRIDS...THOUGH MUCH OF THE
TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND 12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A COLD
FRONT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. DIFFERENCES ARE THAT THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE SURFACE WAVES ON
THE FRONT IS SLOWER. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCES POPS FOR BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT NONE THE LESS THIS FRONT
REPRESENTS THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. WARMEST PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL TURN BRIEFLY
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AND LOWER INTO A MID-LEVEL DECK AROUND 10KFT LATER THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE BULK
OF THE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC...SUGGESTING THAT
THE BULK OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS CANADA LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. THAT SAID THE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE AREA TO WARRANT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PUMP
UP SFC DEWPOINTS ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ALONG LAKE ERIE
LAKE BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN
SHOULD LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER WHERE PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
LAKE BREEZE. AS WITH YESTERDAY...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND
SUNDOWN.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
EXTEND BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS
WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE
RESULT WILL BE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS FOR BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO WITH WAVES AVERAGING 2 FEET OR LESS.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK...AND THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE GENERALLY SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED... THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR
NEARLY DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
CHOP...PARTICULARLY ON THE EAST ENDS OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-
         024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 242000
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
400 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...BRINGING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...LOOK FOR VERY WARM
AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST...WARM AND MOIST
RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNSHINE IS BECOMING MORE FILTERED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO STREAM ACROSS
THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...HOWEVER AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THUS THE BULK
OF THE ISENTROPIC UPLIFT WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS
EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE OTTAWA VALLEY...EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE. THE WARM AIR SURGING
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE MEMORIAL DAY WILL USHER IN A RETURN TO SUMMER AS THE AREA WILL
LOCATED FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE/MID-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LARGELY STYMIE ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH INCREASING
DEWPOINTS ON RETURN FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS FIRING
ALONG THE LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY OTHER
AREA WHERE WE MAY SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...CLOSER TO THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH READINGS HITTING THE MID
TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY WHERE SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPING WILL HELP BUMP READINGS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE ONLY
AREAS THAT MAY REMAIN IN THE 70S WILL BE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE
COOLER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE A SYNOPTICALLY ENHANCED
LAKE BREEZE AND CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL FINISH ITS NORTHWARD EXIT
THROUGH THE CWA USHERING IN WARMER...AND MORE HUMID AIR. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
MONDAY EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...FORMING TO THE LEE OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY
SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN WARM
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY WILL HAVE A TASTE OF SUMMER TO THE DAY AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE.
INITIALLY THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED...WITH SUNSHINE AND
CLOUDS AROUND. WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +15C SURFACE HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING SBCAPES 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS
INSTABILITY...AND THE WEAKENING OF THE CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH WIND ALOFT...0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS TO ALLOW THESE STORMS TO
GROW...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE INLAND STRONG STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/LAKE
ERIE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH NO CHANGE
IN AIRMASS THE AIR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE
PRIOR NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS...AND EVEN SOME LIKELY POPS AS MORE FAVORABLE LIFTING WILL BE
FOUND THIS DAY IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COASTLINE EARLY WEEK...WILL NOW BE OFF
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TO START THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST
CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE INLAND AND ALONG LAKE BREEZES
WHERE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AIDED BY LIFT FROM LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATION SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW EASTWARD WE SHOULD NOT BE AS CAPPED AS EARLIER
IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STORMS TO BREW.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES POPS IN THE GRIDS...THOUGH MUCH OF THE
TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND 12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A COLD
FRONT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. DIFFERENCES ARE THAT THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE SURFACE WAVES ON
THE FRONT IS SLOWER. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCES POPS FOR BOTH WEEKEND
DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT NONE THE LESS THIS FRONT
REPRESENTS THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. WARMEST PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL TURN BRIEFLY
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AND LOWER INTO A MID-LEVEL DECK AROUND 10KFT LATER THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE BULK
OF THE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC...SUGGESTING THAT
THE BULK OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS CANADA LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. THAT SAID THE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE AREA TO WARRANT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PUMP
UP SFC DEWPOINTS ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ALONG LAKE ERIE
LAKE BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN
SHOULD LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER WHERE PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
LAKE BREEZE. AS WITH YESTERDAY...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND
SUNDOWN.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
EXTEND BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS
WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE
RESULT WILL BE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS FOR BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO WITH WAVES AVERAGING 2 FEET OR LESS.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK...AND THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE GENERALLY SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED... THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR
NEARLY DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
CHOP...PARTICULARLY ON THE EAST ENDS OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-
         024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD



000
FXUS61 KBTV 241951
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF FORECAST AREA TOWARDS MORNING...WITH REST OF REGION REMAINING
DRY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
HAVE INDICATED HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS WHERE A PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ACCORDINGLY...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW
FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD SEE
READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RISK OF SHOWERS DECREASES WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM
TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN
A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN 925MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 22C WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES OF
- 2 INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE U70S-U80S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND,
KEEPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD IN THE 60S WITH THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M70S-L80S.

SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
AGAIN PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MAXES WILL SEE THE U70S-M80S.

A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
EASTER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NY EARLY
SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT, AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TOWARDS MORNING/AROUND SUNRISE. SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE WESTWARD
INTO NRN NY WITH VCSH POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND 10Z, REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS AT KMSS AND KSLK AROUND 12Z-13Z, BUT AREAS EAST LOOK TO
REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z/MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN
MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

WINDS OUT OF THE SW AT 6-12KTS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AT MOST SITES
OF 18-28KTS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 3-8KTS AND PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241951
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF FORECAST AREA TOWARDS MORNING...WITH REST OF REGION REMAINING
DRY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
HAVE INDICATED HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS WHERE A PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ACCORDINGLY...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW
FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD SEE
READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RISK OF SHOWERS DECREASES WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM
TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN
A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN 925MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 22C WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES OF
- 2 INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE U70S-U80S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND,
KEEPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD IN THE 60S WITH THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M70S-L80S.

SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
AGAIN PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MAXES WILL SEE THE U70S-M80S.

A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
EASTER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NY EARLY
SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT, AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TOWARDS MORNING/AROUND SUNRISE. SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE WESTWARD
INTO NRN NY WITH VCSH POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND 10Z, REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS AT KMSS AND KSLK AROUND 12Z-13Z, BUT AREAS EAST LOOK TO
REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z/MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN
MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

WINDS OUT OF THE SW AT 6-12KTS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AT MOST SITES
OF 18-28KTS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 3-8KTS AND PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 241949
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
349 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF FORECAST AREA TOWARDS MORNING...WITH REST OF REGION REMAINING
DRY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
HAVE INDICATED HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS WHERE A PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ACCORDINGLY...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW
FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD SEE
READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RISK OF SHOWERS DECREASES WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM
TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN
A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN 925MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 22C WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES OF
- 2 INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE U70S-U80S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND,
KEEPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD IN THE 60S WITH THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M70S-L80S.

SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
AGAIN PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MAXES WILL SEE THE U70S-M80S.

A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
EASTER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NY EARLY
SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT, AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TOWARDS MORNING/AROUND SUNRISE. SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE WESTWARD
INTO NRN NY WITH VCSH POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND 10Z, REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS AT KMSS AND KSLK AROUND 12Z-13Z, BUT AREAS EAST LOOK TO
REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z/MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN
MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

WINDS OUT OF THE SW AT 6-12KTS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AT MOST SITES
OF 18-28KTS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 3-8KTS AND PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 241949
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
349 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF FORECAST AREA TOWARDS MORNING...WITH REST OF REGION REMAINING
DRY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
HAVE INDICATED HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS WHERE A PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ACCORDINGLY...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW
FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD SEE
READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RISK OF SHOWERS DECREASES WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM
TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN
A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN 925MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 22C WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES OF
- 2 INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE U70S-U80S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND,
KEEPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD IN THE 60S WITH THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M70S-L80S.

SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
AGAIN PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MAXES WILL SEE THE U70S-M80S.

A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
EASTER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NY EARLY
SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT, AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TOWARDS MORNING/AROUND SUNRISE. SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE WESTWARD
INTO NRN NY WITH VCSH POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND 10Z, REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS AT KMSS AND KSLK AROUND 12Z-13Z, BUT AREAS EAST LOOK TO
REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z/MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN
MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

WINDS OUT OF THE SW AT 6-12KTS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AT MOST SITES
OF 18-28KTS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 3-8KTS AND PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 241949
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
349 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF FORECAST AREA TOWARDS MORNING...WITH REST OF REGION REMAINING
DRY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
HAVE INDICATED HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS WHERE A PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ACCORDINGLY...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW
FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD SEE
READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RISK OF SHOWERS DECREASES WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM
TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN
A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN 925MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 22C WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES OF
- 2 INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE U70S-U80S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND,
KEEPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD IN THE 60S WITH THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M70S-L80S.

SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
AGAIN PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MAXES WILL SEE THE U70S-M80S.

A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
EASTER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NY EARLY
SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT, AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TOWARDS MORNING/AROUND SUNRISE. SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE WESTWARD
INTO NRN NY WITH VCSH POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND 10Z, REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS AT KMSS AND KSLK AROUND 12Z-13Z, BUT AREAS EAST LOOK TO
REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z/MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN
MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

WINDS OUT OF THE SW AT 6-12KTS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AT MOST SITES
OF 18-28KTS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 3-8KTS AND PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 241949
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
349 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF FORECAST AREA TOWARDS MORNING...WITH REST OF REGION REMAINING
DRY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
HAVE INDICATED HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS WHERE A PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ACCORDINGLY...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW
FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD SEE
READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. RISK OF SHOWERS DECREASES WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED DURING TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM
TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN
A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN 925MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 22C WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES OF
- 2 INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE U70S-U80S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND,
KEEPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD IN THE 60S WITH THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M70S-L80S.

SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
AGAIN PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MAXES WILL SEE THE U70S-M80S.

A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
EASTER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NY EARLY
SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT, AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TOWARDS MORNING/AROUND SUNRISE. SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE WESTWARD
INTO NRN NY WITH VCSH POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND 10Z, REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS AT KMSS AND KSLK AROUND 12Z-13Z, BUT AREAS EAST LOOK TO
REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z/MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN
MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

WINDS OUT OF THE SW AT 6-12KTS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AT MOST SITES
OF 18-28KTS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 3-8KTS AND PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 241946
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
346 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASINGLY WARMER AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALONG WITH THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY...THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND HAS MOVED WELL EAST AS DEEP TROUGH WAS ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAINS. THIS IS RESULTING IN A BROAD RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS OUR
REGION.

AMPLE CONVECTION AND CLOUDS WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WAS BRINGING
HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGIONS AND
STREAMING INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS /COULD MAKE FOR SUN DOGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING/ THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...WE WILL AWAIT FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
EVOLVES. DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ADVECT INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AS SPEED CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN A HEALTHY AREA OF
RAIN/STORMS WITH THICKNESS SCHEME SUGGESTING THE TRACK OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION /MAINLY NORTH OF
I90/ OVERNIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED AS ANY RAINFALL WILL BE
WELCOME. SO THE GENERAL THEME FOR TONIGHT WILL BE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASING OVERNIGHT MAINLY
NORTH OF I90. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE
50 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG WITH
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID AIR MASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS PWATS CLIMB IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I90. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID-TEENS RANGE
ALONG WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TOO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH M-U 70S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A TRAILING MID LEVEL FRONT SETTLING SOUTH
OF I90 OVERNIGHT. NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL
TRANSVERSE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO WARRANT A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD AND HUMID WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO COME OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE THE MID
LEVEL FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO THE CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OVERALL INSTABILITY AS CURRENT SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 500-1000 J/KG WITH PWATS OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES.
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAIN IN
THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SO SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY NIGHT SETTING UP WITH
LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SEASON/S FIRST REAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NY STATE. DISTURBANCES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES ON BY LATE THURSDAY...REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING
ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER JAMES BAY MIGHT PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH OF OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER
TO FILTER IN. THIS FAR OUT...THAT IS NOT A CERTAINITY...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PROJECTED CAPES TO
OVER 2500 J/KG...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG ON
THAT DAY. ALSO PWAT VALUES LOOK TO REACH OVER 1.5 INCHES...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

HOPEFULLY THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BRING SOME RELIEF TO OUR
INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH SOME OF THE HOTTER SPOTS HAVING A SHOT AT 90
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...IF WE GET ENOUGH OF
SUNSHINE EACH OF THESE DAYS.

BY SUNDAY..HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO 65-70 ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...70S ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 60S...COOLING A LITTLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING FOR ALL TAF SITES.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN NY
THIS AFTN. WHILE SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY ONLY BE FEW-SCT...MOST
SITES LOOK TO HAVE BKN CIGS AT 25 KFT THANKS TO A THIN LAYER OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THIS EVENING. W-SW WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS...BUT LOOK TO DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES...AS THE BEST
FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. SEVERAL LAYERS OF BKN CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE LOWEST LAYER AT 8-12 KFT. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL HELP PREVENT ANY
RADIATIONAL FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT.

A SFC WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
/MEMORIAL DAY/.  MOST OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO MISS THE REGION TO THE NORTH/WEST...BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT A SHOWER AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY...ESP AFTER 18Z.  CIGS
WILL GENERALLY BE BKN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED" RISK
OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR. THIS STATEMENT IS SET TO EXPIRE BY THIS
EVENING.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE AROUND OR JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR
STATEMENTS WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN
THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CALM
TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH
RIVER LEVELS HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITHIN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 241946
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
346 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASINGLY WARMER AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALONG WITH THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY...THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND HAS MOVED WELL EAST AS DEEP TROUGH WAS ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAINS. THIS IS RESULTING IN A BROAD RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS OUR
REGION.

AMPLE CONVECTION AND CLOUDS WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WAS BRINGING
HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGIONS AND
STREAMING INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS /COULD MAKE FOR SUN DOGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING/ THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...WE WILL AWAIT FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
EVOLVES. DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ADVECT INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AS SPEED CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN A HEALTHY AREA OF
RAIN/STORMS WITH THICKNESS SCHEME SUGGESTING THE TRACK OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION /MAINLY NORTH OF
I90/ OVERNIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED AS ANY RAINFALL WILL BE
WELCOME. SO THE GENERAL THEME FOR TONIGHT WILL BE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASING OVERNIGHT MAINLY
NORTH OF I90. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE
50 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG WITH
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID AIR MASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS PWATS CLIMB IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I90. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID-TEENS RANGE
ALONG WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TOO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH M-U 70S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A TRAILING MID LEVEL FRONT SETTLING SOUTH
OF I90 OVERNIGHT. NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL
TRANSVERSE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO WARRANT A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD AND HUMID WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO COME OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE THE MID
LEVEL FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO THE CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OVERALL INSTABILITY AS CURRENT SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 500-1000 J/KG WITH PWATS OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES.
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAIN IN
THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SO SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY NIGHT SETTING UP WITH
LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SEASON/S FIRST REAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NY STATE. DISTURBANCES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES ON BY LATE THURSDAY...REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING
ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER JAMES BAY MIGHT PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH OF OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER
TO FILTER IN. THIS FAR OUT...THAT IS NOT A CERTAINITY...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PROJECTED CAPES TO
OVER 2500 J/KG...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG ON
THAT DAY. ALSO PWAT VALUES LOOK TO REACH OVER 1.5 INCHES...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

HOPEFULLY THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BRING SOME RELIEF TO OUR
INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH SOME OF THE HOTTER SPOTS HAVING A SHOT AT 90
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...IF WE GET ENOUGH OF
SUNSHINE EACH OF THESE DAYS.

BY SUNDAY..HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO 65-70 ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...70S ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 60S...COOLING A LITTLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING FOR ALL TAF SITES.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN NY
THIS AFTN. WHILE SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY ONLY BE FEW-SCT...MOST
SITES LOOK TO HAVE BKN CIGS AT 25 KFT THANKS TO A THIN LAYER OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THIS EVENING. W-SW WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS...BUT LOOK TO DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES...AS THE BEST
FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. SEVERAL LAYERS OF BKN CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE LOWEST LAYER AT 8-12 KFT. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL HELP PREVENT ANY
RADIATIONAL FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT.

A SFC WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
/MEMORIAL DAY/.  MOST OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO MISS THE REGION TO THE NORTH/WEST...BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT A SHOWER AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY...ESP AFTER 18Z.  CIGS
WILL GENERALLY BE BKN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED" RISK
OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR. THIS STATEMENT IS SET TO EXPIRE BY THIS
EVENING.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE AROUND OR JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR
STATEMENTS WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN
THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CALM
TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH
RIVER LEVELS HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITHIN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KOKX 241945
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
345 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE HIGH THEN MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CIRRUS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO OUR
WEST OVER THE TRI-STATE...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF BREAKS/DISSIPATION TONIGHT. SO GOING WITH A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT FORMATION AT AREA ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY...THEN
SLIDES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
KEEP THINGS DRY.

DO EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CIRRUS SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST. FOR HIGHS TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF
MIXING DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF WARMER MET/MAV/EKD GUIDANCE. HIGHS
SHOULD BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...WHICH WOULD
PLACE THEM AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SHOULD SEE GUSTY
WINDS WITH SEABREEZE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
TO 30 MPH...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE NEARSHORE. A
40-45KT JET AT 1000 FT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE GUSTINESS OF THE
SEABREEZE.

MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR MONDAY NIGHT IS WHETHER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORM WITH THIRD NIGHT OF ONSHORE FLOW. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE
BACKED AWAY FROM THIS IDEA...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF DEBRIS
CIRRUS WORKING ITS WAY UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE - SO WENT WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER. FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED...WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER EAST COAST RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SOUTHERLY
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH WELL ESTABLISHED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DIURNALLY DRIVE AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AROUND THE
HIGH AS ENERGY MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY...ALLOWING A COUPLE OF WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS RESULTS IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA WHILE THE SOUTHERN
FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THEN WITH
THE WEAK FLOW THE NEXT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS
RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING
MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SW FLOW FOR MOST TERMINALS. SEA BREEZES HAVE PASSED THROUGH
KISP/KBDR/KGON/KJFK...AND SHOULD PASS THROUGH KHPN RIGHT AROUND 20Z.
SEA BREEZES CURRENTLY NOT FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH KEWR/KTEB...BUT
THIS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY AFTER 22Z. SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRING AT KTEB...BUT CHANCES OVERALL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
SHIFT IN TAFS.

WINDS LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET TO UNDER 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. S/SW WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM EACH
AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY NW OF CITY TERMINALS TUE AND WED. COASTAL
SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...WITH A PERSISTENT SW FLOW.

WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE PASSAGE OF A 40-45 KT JET AT 1000 FT. AT
THE SAME TIME WILL BE FAIRLY DEEPLY INVERTED...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE
THE AMOUNT OF THIS JET THAT MIXES DOWN...BUT WITH THE WIND MAX AT
OR JUST UNDER THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE...MORE MIXING COULD OCCUR IN
THIS SCENARIO THAN ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT.

BASED ON THIS HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 18Z
MONDAY-10Z TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT AS WELL. ON THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTS TO 20 KT...WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT
THAT 25 KT GUSTS END UP BEING MORE FREQUENT THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS UNDER SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
HOWEVER...NEARSHORE WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

ON GOING SMALL CRAFT SEAS TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WATERS AND A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
5 FT THURSDAY NIGHT. SUB SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO LATE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OUTSIDE OF LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT REMAIN
BELOW 30 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS...SO THE ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE
SPREAD CONTINUES THERE INTO THIS EVENING.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE 10-15
PERCENT OVER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL BE 10-15 MPH
STRONGER...INCLUDING THE GUSTS. IF DEEPER MIXING OCCURS THAN IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE
SPREAD COULD BE REALIZED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241945
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
345 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE HIGH THEN MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CIRRUS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO OUR
WEST OVER THE TRI-STATE...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF BREAKS/DISSIPATION TONIGHT. SO GOING WITH A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT FORMATION AT AREA ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY...THEN
SLIDES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
KEEP THINGS DRY.

DO EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CIRRUS SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST. FOR HIGHS TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF
MIXING DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF WARMER MET/MAV/EKD GUIDANCE. HIGHS
SHOULD BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...WHICH WOULD
PLACE THEM AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SHOULD SEE GUSTY
WINDS WITH SEABREEZE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
TO 30 MPH...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE NEARSHORE. A
40-45KT JET AT 1000 FT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE GUSTINESS OF THE
SEABREEZE.

MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR MONDAY NIGHT IS WHETHER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORM WITH THIRD NIGHT OF ONSHORE FLOW. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE
BACKED AWAY FROM THIS IDEA...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF DEBRIS
CIRRUS WORKING ITS WAY UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE - SO WENT WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER. FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED...WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER EAST COAST RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SOUTHERLY
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH WELL ESTABLISHED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DIURNALLY DRIVE AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AROUND THE
HIGH AS ENERGY MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY...ALLOWING A COUPLE OF WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS RESULTS IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA WHILE THE SOUTHERN
FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THEN WITH
THE WEAK FLOW THE NEXT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS
RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING
MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SW FLOW FOR MOST TERMINALS. SEA BREEZES HAVE PASSED THROUGH
KISP/KBDR/KGON/KJFK...AND SHOULD PASS THROUGH KHPN RIGHT AROUND 20Z.
SEA BREEZES CURRENTLY NOT FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH KEWR/KTEB...BUT
THIS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY AFTER 22Z. SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRING AT KTEB...BUT CHANCES OVERALL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
SHIFT IN TAFS.

WINDS LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET TO UNDER 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. S/SW WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM EACH
AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY NW OF CITY TERMINALS TUE AND WED. COASTAL
SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...WITH A PERSISTENT SW FLOW.

WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE PASSAGE OF A 40-45 KT JET AT 1000 FT. AT
THE SAME TIME WILL BE FAIRLY DEEPLY INVERTED...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE
THE AMOUNT OF THIS JET THAT MIXES DOWN...BUT WITH THE WIND MAX AT
OR JUST UNDER THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE...MORE MIXING COULD OCCUR IN
THIS SCENARIO THAN ONE WOULD TYPICALLY EXPECT.

BASED ON THIS HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND FROM 18Z
MONDAY-10Z TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT AS WELL. ON THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTS TO 20 KT...WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT
THAT 25 KT GUSTS END UP BEING MORE FREQUENT THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS UNDER SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
HOWEVER...NEARSHORE WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

ON GOING SMALL CRAFT SEAS TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WATERS AND A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
5 FT THURSDAY NIGHT. SUB SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO LATE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OUTSIDE OF LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT REMAIN
BELOW 30 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS...SO THE ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE
SPREAD CONTINUES THERE INTO THIS EVENING.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE 10-15
PERCENT OVER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL BE 10-15 MPH
STRONGER...INCLUDING THE GUSTS. IF DEEPER MIXING OCCURS THAN IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE
SPREAD COULD BE REALIZED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MET



000
FXUS61 KBTV 241935
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
335 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A
STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WARM SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST
WITH LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE OVER PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND
CLOUD COVER DIMINISHED A BIT. WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...CAN`T RULE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP. TEMPS PROFILES CONTINUE TO MODERATE...AND SURFACE
READINGS RESPONDING TO THIS WARMING AND PARTIAL SUN ALONG WITH
WEST- SOUTHWEST BREEZE. READINGS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S AND WILL TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 70S WITH SOME LOWER 80S IN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE) AND
THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION FAR
NORTHEAST WILL THEN END BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER, LEAVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
WILL THEN TREND GRADUALLY CLOUDY LATER AT NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A
STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES. A
BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING, THOUGH MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST.

BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN NY COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AND HAVE OFFERED HIGHEST POPS/STEADIER SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND NOMINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN A MORE LIMITED FASHION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD ACHIEVE
LATE DAY VALUES IN UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH
AND EAST OF THESE AREAS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH ANY STEADIER MORNING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS EXITING
OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH TIME AND SKIES TRENDING PARTLY
SUNNY IN MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ON BOARD SHOWING
REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A
MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING HOWEVER, SO
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DISORGANIZED WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY REMAINING
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH, WITH PERHAPS
OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON ON TAP AS AFTERNOON 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE +20 TO +23C RANGE PER LATEST
NAM/GFS/EURO OUTPUT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST SPOTS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW WARMER LOCALES IN THE BROADER
VALLEYS NEARING THE 90F MARK.  DEFINITELY A TIME TO CONSIDER DUSTING
OFF THE AIR CONDITIONERS AFTER A 9-MONTH HIATUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN 925MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 22C WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES OF
- 2 INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE U70S-U80S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND,
KEEPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD IN THE 60S WITH THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M70S-L80S.

SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
AGAIN PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MAXES WILL SEE THE U70S-M80S.

A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
EASTER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NY EARLY
SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT, AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TOWARDS MORNING/AROUND SUNRISE. SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE WESTWARD
INTO NRN NY WITH VCSH POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND 10Z, REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS AT KMSS AND KSLK AROUND 12Z-13Z, BUT AREAS EAST LOOK TO
REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z/MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN
MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

WINDS OUT OF THE SW AT 6-12KTS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AT MOST SITES
OF 18-28KTS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 3-8KTS AND PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 105 PM SUNDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE
FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW TODAY AS THEY WERE ON
SATURDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH AT TIMES. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME DIFFICULT
TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
FIRE WEATHER...JMG/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241935
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
335 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A
STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WARM SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST
WITH LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE OVER PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND
CLOUD COVER DIMINISHED A BIT. WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...CAN`T RULE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP. TEMPS PROFILES CONTINUE TO MODERATE...AND SURFACE
READINGS RESPONDING TO THIS WARMING AND PARTIAL SUN ALONG WITH
WEST- SOUTHWEST BREEZE. READINGS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S AND WILL TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 70S WITH SOME LOWER 80S IN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE) AND
THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION FAR
NORTHEAST WILL THEN END BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER, LEAVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
WILL THEN TREND GRADUALLY CLOUDY LATER AT NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A
STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES. A
BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING, THOUGH MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST.

BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN NY COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AND HAVE OFFERED HIGHEST POPS/STEADIER SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND NOMINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN A MORE LIMITED FASHION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD ACHIEVE
LATE DAY VALUES IN UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH
AND EAST OF THESE AREAS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH ANY STEADIER MORNING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS EXITING
OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH TIME AND SKIES TRENDING PARTLY
SUNNY IN MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ON BOARD SHOWING
REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A
MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING HOWEVER, SO
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DISORGANIZED WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY REMAINING
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH, WITH PERHAPS
OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON ON TAP AS AFTERNOON 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE +20 TO +23C RANGE PER LATEST
NAM/GFS/EURO OUTPUT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST SPOTS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW WARMER LOCALES IN THE BROADER
VALLEYS NEARING THE 90F MARK.  DEFINITELY A TIME TO CONSIDER DUSTING
OFF THE AIR CONDITIONERS AFTER A 9-MONTH HIATUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN 925MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 22C WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES OF
- 2 INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE U70S-U80S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND,
KEEPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD IN THE 60S WITH THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M70S-L80S.

SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
AGAIN PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MAXES WILL SEE THE U70S-M80S.

A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
EASTER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NY EARLY
SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT, AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TOWARDS MORNING/AROUND SUNRISE. SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE WESTWARD
INTO NRN NY WITH VCSH POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND 10Z, REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS AT KMSS AND KSLK AROUND 12Z-13Z, BUT AREAS EAST LOOK TO
REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z/MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN
MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

WINDS OUT OF THE SW AT 6-12KTS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AT MOST SITES
OF 18-28KTS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 3-8KTS AND PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 105 PM SUNDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE
FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW TODAY AS THEY WERE ON
SATURDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH AT TIMES. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME DIFFICULT
TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
FIRE WEATHER...JMG/RJS



000
FXUS61 KBGM 241856
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
256 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EARLY MONDAY A WARM FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA BUT BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER
WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIPRE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OVRNGT AS THE UPR RDG CONTS TO BLD.
WRM FNT TRIES TO MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA LATE BUT WITH UPR HGTS
STILL BLDG...BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN IS SHUNTED OFF TO THE WEST. LATE
TNGT A WV RIDING OVER THE RDG TRIES TO BRING SOME SHWRS INTO THE
NRN ZONES...ESP IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS. WILL CONT WITH A CHANCE OF
SHWRS OVER THE XTRM NORTH AND KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PTRN KIND OF STALLS THRU THE SHRT TERM WITH THE STRONG AND SHRP
RDG IN PLACE ON THE EAST CST AND A BROAD TROF OVER THE WRN US.
THIS WILL CONT DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING NWRD OUT OF THE WRN GULF
CST AND UP THE MI VLY. AS WVS WRAP ARND THE ERN RDG THEY PULL SOME
MOISTURE AND INCRSD INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. WITH HTG THERE/S A
RSNBL CHANCE OF AFNT CONV...ESP OVER THE NRN AND WRN ZONES TUE
AFTN. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MRGL CHANCE FOR TUE AFTN...MANLY WITH
THE INCRSD INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPLIED BY THE SHRT WV.

TEMPS WILL RISE CNSRBLY MON AFNT INTO TUE BHD THE WRM FNT...RCHG
INTO THE MID 80S IN THE VLYS BOTH MON AND TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...

AN UNSETTLED AND WARM EXTENDED FORECAST, WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
80S FOR HIGHS. FOR A LOT OF US, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL HOPEFULLY
WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINS TO PARTS OF OUR AREA. MODEL AGREEMENT
IS GOOD EARLY, BUT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK DIFFERS QUITE A BIT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS STILL PRESENT WITH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOWING PWATS (PRECIPITABLE WATER) VALUES 1.5" OR GREATER.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO WHILE NOT PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT ITS ALSO NOT EXACTLY PERPENDICULAR. THE RESULT WILL BE
THAT OUR AREA OF RAIN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE BUT NOT IN A REAL HURRY
TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. GFS MPE VECTORS ALSO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR BACK BUILDING OR TRAINING STORMS, WHILE THE NAM DOES NOT. THE
GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THIS REGARD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER THURSDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING DRIER AIR
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY. THE
EURO LINGERS MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING, KEEPS SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN. I TRIED A COMPROMISE
WITH JUST LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (PER THE EURO), BUT A NOTICEABLELOWER
SHOT THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE WEDNESDAY (PER THE GFS). NEW FRONT
APPROACHES FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A NEW ROUND OF RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD...THOUGH HIGH THIN CLOUDS AT 20-25 KFT AGL
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
NY TERMINALS. VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WSW-W
8-12 KTS DURING THE DAY...BEFORE LIGHT SSE-S OR VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT A BRIEF PASSING -SHRA POSSIBLE KSYR-KRME.

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/DAYTIME TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...MDP



000
FXUS61 KBGM 241856
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
256 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EARLY MONDAY A WARM FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA BUT BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER
WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIPRE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OVRNGT AS THE UPR RDG CONTS TO BLD.
WRM FNT TRIES TO MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA LATE BUT WITH UPR HGTS
STILL BLDG...BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN IS SHUNTED OFF TO THE WEST. LATE
TNGT A WV RIDING OVER THE RDG TRIES TO BRING SOME SHWRS INTO THE
NRN ZONES...ESP IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS. WILL CONT WITH A CHANCE OF
SHWRS OVER THE XTRM NORTH AND KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PTRN KIND OF STALLS THRU THE SHRT TERM WITH THE STRONG AND SHRP
RDG IN PLACE ON THE EAST CST AND A BROAD TROF OVER THE WRN US.
THIS WILL CONT DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING NWRD OUT OF THE WRN GULF
CST AND UP THE MI VLY. AS WVS WRAP ARND THE ERN RDG THEY PULL SOME
MOISTURE AND INCRSD INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. WITH HTG THERE/S A
RSNBL CHANCE OF AFNT CONV...ESP OVER THE NRN AND WRN ZONES TUE
AFTN. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MRGL CHANCE FOR TUE AFTN...MANLY WITH
THE INCRSD INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPLIED BY THE SHRT WV.

TEMPS WILL RISE CNSRBLY MON AFNT INTO TUE BHD THE WRM FNT...RCHG
INTO THE MID 80S IN THE VLYS BOTH MON AND TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...

AN UNSETTLED AND WARM EXTENDED FORECAST, WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
80S FOR HIGHS. FOR A LOT OF US, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL HOPEFULLY
WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINS TO PARTS OF OUR AREA. MODEL AGREEMENT
IS GOOD EARLY, BUT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK DIFFERS QUITE A BIT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS STILL PRESENT WITH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOWING PWATS (PRECIPITABLE WATER) VALUES 1.5" OR GREATER.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO WHILE NOT PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT ITS ALSO NOT EXACTLY PERPENDICULAR. THE RESULT WILL BE
THAT OUR AREA OF RAIN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE BUT NOT IN A REAL HURRY
TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. GFS MPE VECTORS ALSO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR BACK BUILDING OR TRAINING STORMS, WHILE THE NAM DOES NOT. THE
GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THIS REGARD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER THURSDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING DRIER AIR
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY. THE
EURO LINGERS MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING, KEEPS SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN. I TRIED A COMPROMISE
WITH JUST LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (PER THE EURO), BUT A NOTICEABLELOWER
SHOT THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE WEDNESDAY (PER THE GFS). NEW FRONT
APPROACHES FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A NEW ROUND OF RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD...THOUGH HIGH THIN CLOUDS AT 20-25 KFT AGL
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
NY TERMINALS. VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WSW-W
8-12 KTS DURING THE DAY...BEFORE LIGHT SSE-S OR VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT A BRIEF PASSING -SHRA POSSIBLE KSYR-KRME.

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/DAYTIME TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...MDP



000
FXUS61 KBGM 241856
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
256 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EARLY MONDAY A WARM FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA BUT BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER
WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIPRE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OVRNGT AS THE UPR RDG CONTS TO BLD.
WRM FNT TRIES TO MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA LATE BUT WITH UPR HGTS
STILL BLDG...BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN IS SHUNTED OFF TO THE WEST. LATE
TNGT A WV RIDING OVER THE RDG TRIES TO BRING SOME SHWRS INTO THE
NRN ZONES...ESP IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS. WILL CONT WITH A CHANCE OF
SHWRS OVER THE XTRM NORTH AND KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PTRN KIND OF STALLS THRU THE SHRT TERM WITH THE STRONG AND SHRP
RDG IN PLACE ON THE EAST CST AND A BROAD TROF OVER THE WRN US.
THIS WILL CONT DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING NWRD OUT OF THE WRN GULF
CST AND UP THE MI VLY. AS WVS WRAP ARND THE ERN RDG THEY PULL SOME
MOISTURE AND INCRSD INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. WITH HTG THERE/S A
RSNBL CHANCE OF AFNT CONV...ESP OVER THE NRN AND WRN ZONES TUE
AFTN. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MRGL CHANCE FOR TUE AFTN...MANLY WITH
THE INCRSD INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPLIED BY THE SHRT WV.

TEMPS WILL RISE CNSRBLY MON AFNT INTO TUE BHD THE WRM FNT...RCHG
INTO THE MID 80S IN THE VLYS BOTH MON AND TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...

AN UNSETTLED AND WARM EXTENDED FORECAST, WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
80S FOR HIGHS. FOR A LOT OF US, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL HOPEFULLY
WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINS TO PARTS OF OUR AREA. MODEL AGREEMENT
IS GOOD EARLY, BUT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK DIFFERS QUITE A BIT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS STILL PRESENT WITH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOWING PWATS (PRECIPITABLE WATER) VALUES 1.5" OR GREATER.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO WHILE NOT PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT ITS ALSO NOT EXACTLY PERPENDICULAR. THE RESULT WILL BE
THAT OUR AREA OF RAIN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE BUT NOT IN A REAL HURRY
TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. GFS MPE VECTORS ALSO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR BACK BUILDING OR TRAINING STORMS, WHILE THE NAM DOES NOT. THE
GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THIS REGARD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER THURSDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING DRIER AIR
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY. THE
EURO LINGERS MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING, KEEPS SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN. I TRIED A COMPROMISE
WITH JUST LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (PER THE EURO), BUT A NOTICEABLELOWER
SHOT THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE WEDNESDAY (PER THE GFS). NEW FRONT
APPROACHES FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A NEW ROUND OF RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD...THOUGH HIGH THIN CLOUDS AT 20-25 KFT AGL
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
NY TERMINALS. VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WSW-W
8-12 KTS DURING THE DAY...BEFORE LIGHT SSE-S OR VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT A BRIEF PASSING -SHRA POSSIBLE KSYR-KRME.

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/DAYTIME TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...MDP



000
FXUS61 KBGM 241856
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
256 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EARLY MONDAY A WARM FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA BUT BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER
WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIPRE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OVRNGT AS THE UPR RDG CONTS TO BLD.
WRM FNT TRIES TO MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA LATE BUT WITH UPR HGTS
STILL BLDG...BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN IS SHUNTED OFF TO THE WEST. LATE
TNGT A WV RIDING OVER THE RDG TRIES TO BRING SOME SHWRS INTO THE
NRN ZONES...ESP IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS. WILL CONT WITH A CHANCE OF
SHWRS OVER THE XTRM NORTH AND KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PTRN KIND OF STALLS THRU THE SHRT TERM WITH THE STRONG AND SHRP
RDG IN PLACE ON THE EAST CST AND A BROAD TROF OVER THE WRN US.
THIS WILL CONT DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING NWRD OUT OF THE WRN GULF
CST AND UP THE MI VLY. AS WVS WRAP ARND THE ERN RDG THEY PULL SOME
MOISTURE AND INCRSD INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. WITH HTG THERE/S A
RSNBL CHANCE OF AFNT CONV...ESP OVER THE NRN AND WRN ZONES TUE
AFTN. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MRGL CHANCE FOR TUE AFTN...MANLY WITH
THE INCRSD INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPLIED BY THE SHRT WV.

TEMPS WILL RISE CNSRBLY MON AFNT INTO TUE BHD THE WRM FNT...RCHG
INTO THE MID 80S IN THE VLYS BOTH MON AND TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...

AN UNSETTLED AND WARM EXTENDED FORECAST, WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
80S FOR HIGHS. FOR A LOT OF US, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL HOPEFULLY
WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINS TO PARTS OF OUR AREA. MODEL AGREEMENT
IS GOOD EARLY, BUT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK DIFFERS QUITE A BIT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS STILL PRESENT WITH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOWING PWATS (PRECIPITABLE WATER) VALUES 1.5" OR GREATER.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO WHILE NOT PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT ITS ALSO NOT EXACTLY PERPENDICULAR. THE RESULT WILL BE
THAT OUR AREA OF RAIN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE BUT NOT IN A REAL HURRY
TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. GFS MPE VECTORS ALSO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR BACK BUILDING OR TRAINING STORMS, WHILE THE NAM DOES NOT. THE
GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THIS REGARD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER THURSDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING DRIER AIR
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY. THE
EURO LINGERS MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING, KEEPS SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN. I TRIED A COMPROMISE
WITH JUST LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (PER THE EURO), BUT A NOTICEABLELOWER
SHOT THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE WEDNESDAY (PER THE GFS). NEW FRONT
APPROACHES FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A NEW ROUND OF RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD...THOUGH HIGH THIN CLOUDS AT 20-25 KFT AGL
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
NY TERMINALS. VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WSW-W
8-12 KTS DURING THE DAY...BEFORE LIGHT SSE-S OR VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT A BRIEF PASSING -SHRA POSSIBLE KSYR-KRME.

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/DAYTIME TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...MDP



000
FXUS61 KBGM 241856
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
256 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EARLY MONDAY A WARM FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA BUT BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER
WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIPRE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OVRNGT AS THE UPR RDG CONTS TO BLD.
WRM FNT TRIES TO MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA LATE BUT WITH UPR HGTS
STILL BLDG...BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN IS SHUNTED OFF TO THE WEST. LATE
TNGT A WV RIDING OVER THE RDG TRIES TO BRING SOME SHWRS INTO THE
NRN ZONES...ESP IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS. WILL CONT WITH A CHANCE OF
SHWRS OVER THE XTRM NORTH AND KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PTRN KIND OF STALLS THRU THE SHRT TERM WITH THE STRONG AND SHRP
RDG IN PLACE ON THE EAST CST AND A BROAD TROF OVER THE WRN US.
THIS WILL CONT DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING NWRD OUT OF THE WRN GULF
CST AND UP THE MI VLY. AS WVS WRAP ARND THE ERN RDG THEY PULL SOME
MOISTURE AND INCRSD INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. WITH HTG THERE/S A
RSNBL CHANCE OF AFNT CONV...ESP OVER THE NRN AND WRN ZONES TUE
AFTN. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MRGL CHANCE FOR TUE AFTN...MANLY WITH
THE INCRSD INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPLIED BY THE SHRT WV.

TEMPS WILL RISE CNSRBLY MON AFNT INTO TUE BHD THE WRM FNT...RCHG
INTO THE MID 80S IN THE VLYS BOTH MON AND TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...

AN UNSETTLED AND WARM EXTENDED FORECAST, WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
80S FOR HIGHS. FOR A LOT OF US, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL HOPEFULLY
WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINS TO PARTS OF OUR AREA. MODEL AGREEMENT
IS GOOD EARLY, BUT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK DIFFERS QUITE A BIT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS STILL PRESENT WITH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOWING PWATS (PRECIPITABLE WATER) VALUES 1.5" OR GREATER.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO WHILE NOT PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT ITS ALSO NOT EXACTLY PERPENDICULAR. THE RESULT WILL BE
THAT OUR AREA OF RAIN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE BUT NOT IN A REAL HURRY
TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. GFS MPE VECTORS ALSO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR BACK BUILDING OR TRAINING STORMS, WHILE THE NAM DOES NOT. THE
GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THIS REGARD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER THURSDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING DRIER AIR
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY. THE
EURO LINGERS MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING, KEEPS SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN. I TRIED A COMPROMISE
WITH JUST LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (PER THE EURO), BUT A NOTICEABLELOWER
SHOT THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE WEDNESDAY (PER THE GFS). NEW FRONT
APPROACHES FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A NEW ROUND OF RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD...THOUGH HIGH THIN CLOUDS AT 20-25 KFT AGL
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
NY TERMINALS. VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WSW-W
8-12 KTS DURING THE DAY...BEFORE LIGHT SSE-S OR VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT A BRIEF PASSING -SHRA POSSIBLE KSYR-KRME.

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/DAYTIME TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 241856
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
256 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EARLY MONDAY A WARM FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA BUT BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER
WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIPRE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OVRNGT AS THE UPR RDG CONTS TO BLD.
WRM FNT TRIES TO MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA LATE BUT WITH UPR HGTS
STILL BLDG...BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN IS SHUNTED OFF TO THE WEST. LATE
TNGT A WV RIDING OVER THE RDG TRIES TO BRING SOME SHWRS INTO THE
NRN ZONES...ESP IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS. WILL CONT WITH A CHANCE OF
SHWRS OVER THE XTRM NORTH AND KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PTRN KIND OF STALLS THRU THE SHRT TERM WITH THE STRONG AND SHRP
RDG IN PLACE ON THE EAST CST AND A BROAD TROF OVER THE WRN US.
THIS WILL CONT DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING NWRD OUT OF THE WRN GULF
CST AND UP THE MI VLY. AS WVS WRAP ARND THE ERN RDG THEY PULL SOME
MOISTURE AND INCRSD INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. WITH HTG THERE/S A
RSNBL CHANCE OF AFNT CONV...ESP OVER THE NRN AND WRN ZONES TUE
AFTN. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MRGL CHANCE FOR TUE AFTN...MANLY WITH
THE INCRSD INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPLIED BY THE SHRT WV.

TEMPS WILL RISE CNSRBLY MON AFNT INTO TUE BHD THE WRM FNT...RCHG
INTO THE MID 80S IN THE VLYS BOTH MON AND TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...

AN UNSETTLED AND WARM EXTENDED FORECAST, WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
80S FOR HIGHS. FOR A LOT OF US, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL HOPEFULLY
WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINS TO PARTS OF OUR AREA. MODEL AGREEMENT
IS GOOD EARLY, BUT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK DIFFERS QUITE A BIT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS STILL PRESENT WITH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOWING PWATS (PRECIPITABLE WATER) VALUES 1.5" OR GREATER.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO WHILE NOT PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT ITS ALSO NOT EXACTLY PERPENDICULAR. THE RESULT WILL BE
THAT OUR AREA OF RAIN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE BUT NOT IN A REAL HURRY
TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. GFS MPE VECTORS ALSO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR BACK BUILDING OR TRAINING STORMS, WHILE THE NAM DOES NOT. THE
GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THIS REGARD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER THURSDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING DRIER AIR
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY. THE
EURO LINGERS MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING, KEEPS SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN. I TRIED A COMPROMISE
WITH JUST LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (PER THE EURO), BUT A NOTICEABLELOWER
SHOT THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE WEDNESDAY (PER THE GFS). NEW FRONT
APPROACHES FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A NEW ROUND OF RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD...THOUGH HIGH THIN CLOUDS AT 20-25 KFT AGL
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
NY TERMINALS. VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WSW-W
8-12 KTS DURING THE DAY...BEFORE LIGHT SSE-S OR VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT A BRIEF PASSING -SHRA POSSIBLE KSYR-KRME.

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/DAYTIME TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...MDP



000
FXUS61 KBGM 241819
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
219 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EARLY MONDAY A WARM FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA BUT BRING A CHANCE OF SHWERS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER
WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SFC HIPRE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OVRNGT AS THE UPR RDG CONTS TO BLD.
WRM FNT TRIES TO MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA LATE BUT WITH UPR HGTS
STILL BLDG...BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN IS SHUNTED OFF TO THE WEST. LATE
TNGT A WV RIDING OVER THE RDG TRIES TO BRING SOME SHWRS INTO THE
NRN ZONES...ESP IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS. WILL CONT WITH A CHANCE OF
SHWRS OVER THE XTRM NORTH AND KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

PTRN KIND OF STALLS THRU THE SHRT TERM WITH THE STRONG AND SHRP
RDG IN PLACE ON THE EAST CST AND A BROAD TROF OVER THE WRN US.
THIS WILL CONT DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING NWRD OUT OF THE WRN GULF
CST AND UP THE MI VLY. AS WVS WRAP ARND THE ERN RDG THEY PULL SOME
MOISTURE AND INCRSD INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. WITH HTG THERE/S A
RSNBL CHANCE OF AFNT CONV...ESP OVER THE NRN AND WRN ZONES TUE
AFTN. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MRGL CHANCE FOR TUE AFTN...MANLY WITH
THE INCRSD INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPLIED BY THE SHRT WV.

TEMPS WILL RISE CNSRBLY MON AFNT INTO TUE BHD THE WRM FNT...RCHG
INTO THE MID 80S IN THE VLYS BOTH MON AND TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
0330 AM UPDATE...MADE A FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING THAT FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY DRIER, COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY BEFORE
WARMER, MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TRY TO PUSH BACK IN BY FRIDAY. THUS,
LOWERED POPS, DEW POINTS, SKY COVER FOR THURSDAY. ALSO, STILL
EARLY BUT WEDNESDAY POTENTIALLY SHAPING UP TO BE
INTERESTING...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SHOWERS,
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS LOOK
TO BE QUITE HIGH WITH GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING SLOW MBE
VECTORS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PD BEGINS WITH A LRG RDG OVER THE SERN US
XTNDG UP INTO NEW ENG AND RISING HGTS UNDER A SW FLOW FOR THE FCST
AREA. AS WE GO THRU THE WEEK...THERE WILL BE S SLOW RETREAT OF THE
UPR RDG INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC WHILE THE MID WEST TROF SLOWLY
WEAKENS AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES EWRD.

SO...FOR THE DAY TO DAY FCST IN THE AREA...THE SW FLOW WILL BRING
WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. ALSO...WITH DAYTIME HTG
AND INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE SLOWLY ADVANCING TROF...THERE
WILL BE AN INCRSG CHANCE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THRU THE PD. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE WED AFTN AND AGAIN ON THU WITH MAX HTG AND THE TROF
NEARLY UPON US.

DAILY TEMPS WILL BE ABV NRML FOR THE AREA THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD...THOUGH HIGH THIN CLOUDS AT 20-25 KFT AGL
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
NY TERMINALS. VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WSW-W
8-12 KTS DURING THE DAY...BEFORE LIGHT SSE-S OR VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT A BRIEF PASSING -SHRA POSSIBLE KSYR-KRME.

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/DAYTIME TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MDP



000
FXUS61 KBGM 241819
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
219 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EARLY MONDAY A WARM FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA BUT BRING A CHANCE OF SHWERS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER
WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SFC HIPRE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OVRNGT AS THE UPR RDG CONTS TO BLD.
WRM FNT TRIES TO MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA LATE BUT WITH UPR HGTS
STILL BLDG...BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN IS SHUNTED OFF TO THE WEST. LATE
TNGT A WV RIDING OVER THE RDG TRIES TO BRING SOME SHWRS INTO THE
NRN ZONES...ESP IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS. WILL CONT WITH A CHANCE OF
SHWRS OVER THE XTRM NORTH AND KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

PTRN KIND OF STALLS THRU THE SHRT TERM WITH THE STRONG AND SHRP
RDG IN PLACE ON THE EAST CST AND A BROAD TROF OVER THE WRN US.
THIS WILL CONT DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING NWRD OUT OF THE WRN GULF
CST AND UP THE MI VLY. AS WVS WRAP ARND THE ERN RDG THEY PULL SOME
MOISTURE AND INCRSD INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. WITH HTG THERE/S A
RSNBL CHANCE OF AFNT CONV...ESP OVER THE NRN AND WRN ZONES TUE
AFTN. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MRGL CHANCE FOR TUE AFTN...MANLY WITH
THE INCRSD INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPLIED BY THE SHRT WV.

TEMPS WILL RISE CNSRBLY MON AFNT INTO TUE BHD THE WRM FNT...RCHG
INTO THE MID 80S IN THE VLYS BOTH MON AND TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
0330 AM UPDATE...MADE A FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING THAT FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY DRIER, COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY BEFORE
WARMER, MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TRY TO PUSH BACK IN BY FRIDAY. THUS,
LOWERED POPS, DEW POINTS, SKY COVER FOR THURSDAY. ALSO, STILL
EARLY BUT WEDNESDAY POTENTIALLY SHAPING UP TO BE
INTERESTING...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SHOWERS,
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS LOOK
TO BE QUITE HIGH WITH GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING SLOW MBE
VECTORS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PD BEGINS WITH A LRG RDG OVER THE SERN US
XTNDG UP INTO NEW ENG AND RISING HGTS UNDER A SW FLOW FOR THE FCST
AREA. AS WE GO THRU THE WEEK...THERE WILL BE S SLOW RETREAT OF THE
UPR RDG INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC WHILE THE MID WEST TROF SLOWLY
WEAKENS AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES EWRD.

SO...FOR THE DAY TO DAY FCST IN THE AREA...THE SW FLOW WILL BRING
WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. ALSO...WITH DAYTIME HTG
AND INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE SLOWLY ADVANCING TROF...THERE
WILL BE AN INCRSG CHANCE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THRU THE PD. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE WED AFTN AND AGAIN ON THU WITH MAX HTG AND THE TROF
NEARLY UPON US.

DAILY TEMPS WILL BE ABV NRML FOR THE AREA THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD...THOUGH HIGH THIN CLOUDS AT 20-25 KFT AGL
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
NY TERMINALS. VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WSW-W
8-12 KTS DURING THE DAY...BEFORE LIGHT SSE-S OR VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT A BRIEF PASSING -SHRA POSSIBLE KSYR-KRME.

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/DAYTIME TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBUF 241819
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
219 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRODUCE A
BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
FINALLY BOOST TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A WARM FRONT
WILL THEN ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
WILL SIGNAL A CHANGE TO WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH THE MORE SUMMERY
AIRMASS SUPPORTING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK THOUGH WILL BE RAIN FREE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOW DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EXTENDING BACK
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPLY OUR REGION WITH BEAUTIFUL WEATHER
TODAY. AMPLE SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ONLY SOME HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS WARMER AIR WILL PUSH AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

UNLIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WHEN WE EXPERIENCED COOL WEATHER...
H85 TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 12C (WRN COUNTIES) WILL COMBINE WITH
A RISING HGT FIELD AND AMPLE SUNSHINE TO SEND OUR AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT PARTS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEG F HIGHER THAN THOSE FROM
SATURDAY...AND 20 DEG HIGHER THAN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS OF FRIDAY.

TONIGHT...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WARMER AIR PUSHING NORTH ACROSS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE THE PROCESS OF GENERATING ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED LIFT
BECOMING GREAT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS NEAR...AND NORTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARMER
AND WARMER NIGHTS...AS THE MERCURY TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL TO
AROUND 60 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WEST OF ROCHESTER...WHILE MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE MINS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. THIS WILL BE A FAR CRY FROM THE WIDESPREAD FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS FROM JUST TWO NIGHTS AGO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE PUSHING
ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THE BULK OF ANY WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT AND SHOULD THUS PRIMARILY IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY...WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD EXPERIENCE
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH. HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
/WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND WHERE THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST
AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR POURS
INTO THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE BURGEONING WARM SECTOR.
THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IMMEDIATELY NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP READINGS
CONFINED TO THE 70S.

AS WE GET INTO MONDAY EVENING...ANY LINGERING WARM FRONTAL
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THAT PARTICULAR REGION AS THE WARM FRONT FINISHES CLEARING
OUR FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...A VERY MODEST ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...AND WILL PROBABLY HELP TO TRIGGER A NEW ROUND OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. GIVEN DIMINISHING NOCTURNAL
INSTABILITY...EXPECT THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BOTH PRECIP AND THUNDER
CHANCES THEN DIMINISHING OVER TIME AND WITH EASTWARD EXTENT DURING
THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID NIGHT... WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE MID 60S IN
MOST PLACES...AND DEWPOINTS HOVERING JUST A LITTLE BELOW THESE
LEVELS.

AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL THEN PROBABLY LEAD TO A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITHOUT AN OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC-SCALE TRIGGER
PRESENT...ANY SUCH ACTIVITY MAY HAVE TO RELY MORE ON LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO GET GOING INITIALLY. THIS
WOULD TEND TO RESULT IN THE TYPICALLY-SEEN SCENARIO WHERE
CONVECTION INITIALLY FIRES TO THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE AND OTHER
REGIONS OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THEN SPREADS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE FORECAST BY
PLACING THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND LOWER CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
AREAS MORE LIKELY TO BE SHADOWED BY THE LAKES... THOUGH HAVE
REFRAINED FROM GOING LOWER THAN THAT JUST YET GIVEN THAT THIS TIME
FRAME IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT. ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD THEN TEND TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTION PROBABLY INCREASES AGAIN LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL
TROUGH...AND ITS ATTENDANT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND TRAILING MODEST
COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE BEST OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO COME
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN RENEWED DIURNAL HEATING WILL LEAD
TO GREATER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURES TO WORK WITH...AND IN TURN SHOULD LEAD TO ONE OR MORE
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ACCORDINGLY RESERVED THE HIGHEST OVERALL
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THAT PARTICULAR DAY...THOUGH HAVE ELECTED TO
KEEP THESE CONFINED TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE TIME BEING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AGAIN STRUGGLING TO FALL BELOW THE MID 60S... AND
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WHEN
THE WARMEST OVERALL TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WE GET INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LINGERING SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION... AND AS A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION IN ITS WAKE...
WITH THIS RIDGE THEN PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH LARGELY DRY AND
QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BOTH FALL BACK A LITTLE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP BACK TO THE
MORE COMFORTABLE MID AND UPPER 50S...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS RETREAT
TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALL
TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN
REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS BACK UP SOME 3-5 DEGREES OR SO FROM THURSDAY/S
READINGS. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE INCREASING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
VERY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME
BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL AGAIN BE IN PLAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WAVE-LADEN COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING IN OUR DIRECTION FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...THOUGH
THESE PACKAGES /AS IS TO BE EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT/ STILL ALSO
EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON ITS TIMING...WITH THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS EUROPEAN
COUNTERPART. WHILE I TEND TO BELIEVE THE LATTER MORE AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE VERY WAVY AND ELONGATED NATURE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
EITHER OF THESE SCENARIOS WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHICH HAS BEEN
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST BY INCREASING CHANCE POPS AND A TREND
TOWARD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AND LOWER INTO A MID-LEVEL DECK AROUND 10KFT LATER THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE BULK
OF THE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC...SUGGESTING THAT
THE BULK OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS CANADA LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. THAT SAID THE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE AREA TO WARRANT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PUMP
UP SFC DEWPOINTS ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ALONG LAKE ERIE
LAKE BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN
SHOULD LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND
BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL
KEEP A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE RESULT
WILL BE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS FOR BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
WITH WAVES AVERAGING 2 FEET OR LESS.

THE ONLY PROBLEM IN THE NEAR TERM WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND ON THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER WHERE FUNNELED SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN TO
15 TO 25 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED TO COVER THIS CONCERN.

THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...AND THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE
GENERALLY SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR NEARLY DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-
         024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/RSH
NEAR TERM...AR/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...AR/RSH



000
FXUS61 KBUF 241819
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
219 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRODUCE A
BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
FINALLY BOOST TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A WARM FRONT
WILL THEN ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
WILL SIGNAL A CHANGE TO WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH THE MORE SUMMERY
AIRMASS SUPPORTING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK THOUGH WILL BE RAIN FREE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOW DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EXTENDING BACK
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPLY OUR REGION WITH BEAUTIFUL WEATHER
TODAY. AMPLE SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ONLY SOME HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS WARMER AIR WILL PUSH AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

UNLIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WHEN WE EXPERIENCED COOL WEATHER...
H85 TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 12C (WRN COUNTIES) WILL COMBINE WITH
A RISING HGT FIELD AND AMPLE SUNSHINE TO SEND OUR AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT PARTS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEG F HIGHER THAN THOSE FROM
SATURDAY...AND 20 DEG HIGHER THAN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS OF FRIDAY.

TONIGHT...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WARMER AIR PUSHING NORTH ACROSS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE THE PROCESS OF GENERATING ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED LIFT
BECOMING GREAT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS NEAR...AND NORTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARMER
AND WARMER NIGHTS...AS THE MERCURY TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL TO
AROUND 60 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WEST OF ROCHESTER...WHILE MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE MINS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. THIS WILL BE A FAR CRY FROM THE WIDESPREAD FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS FROM JUST TWO NIGHTS AGO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE PUSHING
ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THE BULK OF ANY WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT AND SHOULD THUS PRIMARILY IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY...WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD EXPERIENCE
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH. HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
/WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND WHERE THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST
AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR POURS
INTO THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE BURGEONING WARM SECTOR.
THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IMMEDIATELY NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP READINGS
CONFINED TO THE 70S.

AS WE GET INTO MONDAY EVENING...ANY LINGERING WARM FRONTAL
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THAT PARTICULAR REGION AS THE WARM FRONT FINISHES CLEARING
OUR FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...A VERY MODEST ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...AND WILL PROBABLY HELP TO TRIGGER A NEW ROUND OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. GIVEN DIMINISHING NOCTURNAL
INSTABILITY...EXPECT THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BOTH PRECIP AND THUNDER
CHANCES THEN DIMINISHING OVER TIME AND WITH EASTWARD EXTENT DURING
THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID NIGHT... WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE MID 60S IN
MOST PLACES...AND DEWPOINTS HOVERING JUST A LITTLE BELOW THESE
LEVELS.

AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL THEN PROBABLY LEAD TO A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITHOUT AN OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC-SCALE TRIGGER
PRESENT...ANY SUCH ACTIVITY MAY HAVE TO RELY MORE ON LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO GET GOING INITIALLY. THIS
WOULD TEND TO RESULT IN THE TYPICALLY-SEEN SCENARIO WHERE
CONVECTION INITIALLY FIRES TO THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE AND OTHER
REGIONS OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THEN SPREADS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE FORECAST BY
PLACING THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND LOWER CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
AREAS MORE LIKELY TO BE SHADOWED BY THE LAKES... THOUGH HAVE
REFRAINED FROM GOING LOWER THAN THAT JUST YET GIVEN THAT THIS TIME
FRAME IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT. ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD THEN TEND TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTION PROBABLY INCREASES AGAIN LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL
TROUGH...AND ITS ATTENDANT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND TRAILING MODEST
COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE BEST OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO COME
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN RENEWED DIURNAL HEATING WILL LEAD
TO GREATER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURES TO WORK WITH...AND IN TURN SHOULD LEAD TO ONE OR MORE
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ACCORDINGLY RESERVED THE HIGHEST OVERALL
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THAT PARTICULAR DAY...THOUGH HAVE ELECTED TO
KEEP THESE CONFINED TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE TIME BEING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AGAIN STRUGGLING TO FALL BELOW THE MID 60S... AND
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WHEN
THE WARMEST OVERALL TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WE GET INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LINGERING SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION... AND AS A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION IN ITS WAKE...
WITH THIS RIDGE THEN PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH LARGELY DRY AND
QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BOTH FALL BACK A LITTLE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP BACK TO THE
MORE COMFORTABLE MID AND UPPER 50S...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS RETREAT
TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALL
TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN
REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS BACK UP SOME 3-5 DEGREES OR SO FROM THURSDAY/S
READINGS. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE INCREASING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
VERY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME
BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL AGAIN BE IN PLAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WAVE-LADEN COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING IN OUR DIRECTION FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...THOUGH
THESE PACKAGES /AS IS TO BE EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT/ STILL ALSO
EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON ITS TIMING...WITH THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS EUROPEAN
COUNTERPART. WHILE I TEND TO BELIEVE THE LATTER MORE AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE VERY WAVY AND ELONGATED NATURE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
EITHER OF THESE SCENARIOS WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHICH HAS BEEN
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST BY INCREASING CHANCE POPS AND A TREND
TOWARD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AND LOWER INTO A MID-LEVEL DECK AROUND 10KFT LATER THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE BULK
OF THE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC...SUGGESTING THAT
THE BULK OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS CANADA LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. THAT SAID THE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE AREA TO WARRANT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PUMP
UP SFC DEWPOINTS ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ALONG LAKE ERIE
LAKE BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN
SHOULD LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND
BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL
KEEP A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE RESULT
WILL BE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS FOR BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
WITH WAVES AVERAGING 2 FEET OR LESS.

THE ONLY PROBLEM IN THE NEAR TERM WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND ON THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER WHERE FUNNELED SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN TO
15 TO 25 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED TO COVER THIS CONCERN.

THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...AND THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE
GENERALLY SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR NEARLY DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-
         024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/RSH
NEAR TERM...AR/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...AR/RSH



000
FXUS61 KBUF 241819
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
219 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRODUCE A
BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
FINALLY BOOST TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A WARM FRONT
WILL THEN ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
WILL SIGNAL A CHANGE TO WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH THE MORE SUMMERY
AIRMASS SUPPORTING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK THOUGH WILL BE RAIN FREE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOW DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EXTENDING BACK
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPLY OUR REGION WITH BEAUTIFUL WEATHER
TODAY. AMPLE SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ONLY SOME HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS WARMER AIR WILL PUSH AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

UNLIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WHEN WE EXPERIENCED COOL WEATHER...
H85 TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 12C (WRN COUNTIES) WILL COMBINE WITH
A RISING HGT FIELD AND AMPLE SUNSHINE TO SEND OUR AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT PARTS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEG F HIGHER THAN THOSE FROM
SATURDAY...AND 20 DEG HIGHER THAN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS OF FRIDAY.

TONIGHT...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WARMER AIR PUSHING NORTH ACROSS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE THE PROCESS OF GENERATING ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED LIFT
BECOMING GREAT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS NEAR...AND NORTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARMER
AND WARMER NIGHTS...AS THE MERCURY TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL TO
AROUND 60 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WEST OF ROCHESTER...WHILE MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE MINS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. THIS WILL BE A FAR CRY FROM THE WIDESPREAD FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS FROM JUST TWO NIGHTS AGO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE PUSHING
ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THE BULK OF ANY WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT AND SHOULD THUS PRIMARILY IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY...WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD EXPERIENCE
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH. HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
/WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND WHERE THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST
AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR POURS
INTO THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE BURGEONING WARM SECTOR.
THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IMMEDIATELY NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP READINGS
CONFINED TO THE 70S.

AS WE GET INTO MONDAY EVENING...ANY LINGERING WARM FRONTAL
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THAT PARTICULAR REGION AS THE WARM FRONT FINISHES CLEARING
OUR FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...A VERY MODEST ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...AND WILL PROBABLY HELP TO TRIGGER A NEW ROUND OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. GIVEN DIMINISHING NOCTURNAL
INSTABILITY...EXPECT THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BOTH PRECIP AND THUNDER
CHANCES THEN DIMINISHING OVER TIME AND WITH EASTWARD EXTENT DURING
THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID NIGHT... WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE MID 60S IN
MOST PLACES...AND DEWPOINTS HOVERING JUST A LITTLE BELOW THESE
LEVELS.

AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL THEN PROBABLY LEAD TO A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITHOUT AN OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC-SCALE TRIGGER
PRESENT...ANY SUCH ACTIVITY MAY HAVE TO RELY MORE ON LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO GET GOING INITIALLY. THIS
WOULD TEND TO RESULT IN THE TYPICALLY-SEEN SCENARIO WHERE
CONVECTION INITIALLY FIRES TO THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE AND OTHER
REGIONS OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THEN SPREADS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE FORECAST BY
PLACING THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND LOWER CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
AREAS MORE LIKELY TO BE SHADOWED BY THE LAKES... THOUGH HAVE
REFRAINED FROM GOING LOWER THAN THAT JUST YET GIVEN THAT THIS TIME
FRAME IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT. ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD THEN TEND TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTION PROBABLY INCREASES AGAIN LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL
TROUGH...AND ITS ATTENDANT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND TRAILING MODEST
COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE BEST OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO COME
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN RENEWED DIURNAL HEATING WILL LEAD
TO GREATER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURES TO WORK WITH...AND IN TURN SHOULD LEAD TO ONE OR MORE
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ACCORDINGLY RESERVED THE HIGHEST OVERALL
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THAT PARTICULAR DAY...THOUGH HAVE ELECTED TO
KEEP THESE CONFINED TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE TIME BEING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AGAIN STRUGGLING TO FALL BELOW THE MID 60S... AND
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WHEN
THE WARMEST OVERALL TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WE GET INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LINGERING SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION... AND AS A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION IN ITS WAKE...
WITH THIS RIDGE THEN PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH LARGELY DRY AND
QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BOTH FALL BACK A LITTLE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP BACK TO THE
MORE COMFORTABLE MID AND UPPER 50S...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS RETREAT
TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALL
TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN
REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS BACK UP SOME 3-5 DEGREES OR SO FROM THURSDAY/S
READINGS. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE INCREASING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
VERY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME
BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL AGAIN BE IN PLAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WAVE-LADEN COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING IN OUR DIRECTION FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...THOUGH
THESE PACKAGES /AS IS TO BE EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT/ STILL ALSO
EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON ITS TIMING...WITH THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS EUROPEAN
COUNTERPART. WHILE I TEND TO BELIEVE THE LATTER MORE AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE VERY WAVY AND ELONGATED NATURE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
EITHER OF THESE SCENARIOS WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHICH HAS BEEN
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST BY INCREASING CHANCE POPS AND A TREND
TOWARD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AND LOWER INTO A MID-LEVEL DECK AROUND 10KFT LATER THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE BULK
OF THE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC...SUGGESTING THAT
THE BULK OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS CANADA LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. THAT SAID THE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE AREA TO WARRANT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PUMP
UP SFC DEWPOINTS ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ALONG LAKE ERIE
LAKE BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN
SHOULD LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND
BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL
KEEP A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE RESULT
WILL BE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS FOR BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
WITH WAVES AVERAGING 2 FEET OR LESS.

THE ONLY PROBLEM IN THE NEAR TERM WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND ON THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER WHERE FUNNELED SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN TO
15 TO 25 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED TO COVER THIS CONCERN.

THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...AND THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE
GENERALLY SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR NEARLY DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-
         024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/RSH
NEAR TERM...AR/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...AR/RSH




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241741
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
141 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE HIGH THEN
MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA FROM THE MIDDLE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HOURLY TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST.
HAVE INCREASED HIGHS 1-2 CATEGORIES AS A RESULT...CONSISTENT WITH
A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDING...A
MIX OF WARMER MET/EKD GUIDANCE...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
WOULD EXPECT NE NJ OUTSIDE OF NE NJ...AND NYC IMMEDIATELY AWAY
FROM THE S SHORE OF QUEENS/BROOKLYN TO BE AROUND 80-LOWER 80S.
SHOULD SEE MAINLY MID 70S-AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT UPPER 60S-
LOWER 70S NEAR SOUTH FACING COASTLINES.

ALSO...INCREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY OVER W ZONES TO REFLECT
PASSING CIRRUS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT FORMATION AT AREA ATLANTIC BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE
PROMINENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH IN
PLACE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS LONG ISLAND. USED A BLEND OF MAV AND ECE FOR LOW
TEMPS...AGAIN SIDING WITH A RELATIVELY WARMER SOLUTION.

FOR MONDAY...THE 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES...OVERALL EXHIBITING A STEADY RISING TREND COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY. LIKEWISE...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS NEAR THE SURFACE TO
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. HOWEVER...AT THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...THE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEARLY THE SAME
AS THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS IN PLACE. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND INTO
THE EVENINGS EACH DAY THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS DEVELOP. THE AIR MASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH BUILD UP OF CAPE AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY.
IF THE HIGH AND RIDGE ARE STRONGER AND REMAIN IN PLACE...THE
INLAND AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY. FARTHER EAST IS MORE STABLE WHILE
FARTHER WEST WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE AS THAT IS WHERE WARMER AIR
WILL RESIDE SO CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHER NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC.

AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS FRIDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AND KEPT POPS AT CHANCE.

FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS
RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SW FLOW FOR MOST TERMINALS. SEA BREEZES HAVE PASSED THROUGH
KISP/KBDR/KGON/KJFK...AND SHOULD PASS THROUGH KLGA RIGHT AROUND
18Z. SEA BREEZES CURRENTLY NOT FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
KEWR/KTEB/KHPN...BUT THIS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY LATE THIS AFTN.

WINDS LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET TO UNDER 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. S/SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM EACH
AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY NW OF CITY TERMINALS TUE AND WED. COASTAL
SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AT
TIMES COULD APPROACH 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...
ESPECIALLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5 FEET
OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...PROBABLY BEGINNING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOCAL NON OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOG/POOR VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO
LATE WEEK AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG VERTICAL MIXING WILL BRING DOWN LOWER DEWPOINTS FROM THE
LOW LEVELS. AS A RESULT...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN
THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH...WILL ENHANCE
THE SPREAD AND GROWTH OF ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR COASTAL CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN
QUEENS...NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES...WHERE MORE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JM
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/MET
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241741
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
141 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE HIGH THEN
MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA FROM THE MIDDLE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HOURLY TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST.
HAVE INCREASED HIGHS 1-2 CATEGORIES AS A RESULT...CONSISTENT WITH
A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDING...A
MIX OF WARMER MET/EKD GUIDANCE...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
WOULD EXPECT NE NJ OUTSIDE OF NE NJ...AND NYC IMMEDIATELY AWAY
FROM THE S SHORE OF QUEENS/BROOKLYN TO BE AROUND 80-LOWER 80S.
SHOULD SEE MAINLY MID 70S-AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT UPPER 60S-
LOWER 70S NEAR SOUTH FACING COASTLINES.

ALSO...INCREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY OVER W ZONES TO REFLECT
PASSING CIRRUS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT FORMATION AT AREA ATLANTIC BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE
PROMINENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH IN
PLACE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS LONG ISLAND. USED A BLEND OF MAV AND ECE FOR LOW
TEMPS...AGAIN SIDING WITH A RELATIVELY WARMER SOLUTION.

FOR MONDAY...THE 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES...OVERALL EXHIBITING A STEADY RISING TREND COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY. LIKEWISE...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS NEAR THE SURFACE TO
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. HOWEVER...AT THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...THE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEARLY THE SAME
AS THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS IN PLACE. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND INTO
THE EVENINGS EACH DAY THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS DEVELOP. THE AIR MASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH BUILD UP OF CAPE AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY.
IF THE HIGH AND RIDGE ARE STRONGER AND REMAIN IN PLACE...THE
INLAND AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY. FARTHER EAST IS MORE STABLE WHILE
FARTHER WEST WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE AS THAT IS WHERE WARMER AIR
WILL RESIDE SO CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHER NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC.

AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS FRIDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AND KEPT POPS AT CHANCE.

FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS
RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SW FLOW FOR MOST TERMINALS. SEA BREEZES HAVE PASSED THROUGH
KISP/KBDR/KGON/KJFK...AND SHOULD PASS THROUGH KLGA RIGHT AROUND
18Z. SEA BREEZES CURRENTLY NOT FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
KEWR/KTEB/KHPN...BUT THIS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY LATE THIS AFTN.

WINDS LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET TO UNDER 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. S/SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM EACH
AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY NW OF CITY TERMINALS TUE AND WED. COASTAL
SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AT
TIMES COULD APPROACH 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...
ESPECIALLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5 FEET
OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...PROBABLY BEGINNING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOCAL NON OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOG/POOR VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO
LATE WEEK AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG VERTICAL MIXING WILL BRING DOWN LOWER DEWPOINTS FROM THE
LOW LEVELS. AS A RESULT...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN
THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH...WILL ENHANCE
THE SPREAD AND GROWTH OF ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR COASTAL CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN
QUEENS...NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES...WHERE MORE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JM
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/MET
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JM



000
FXUS61 KOKX 241741
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
141 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE HIGH THEN
MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA FROM THE MIDDLE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HOURLY TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST.
HAVE INCREASED HIGHS 1-2 CATEGORIES AS A RESULT...CONSISTENT WITH
A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDING...A
MIX OF WARMER MET/EKD GUIDANCE...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
WOULD EXPECT NE NJ OUTSIDE OF NE NJ...AND NYC IMMEDIATELY AWAY
FROM THE S SHORE OF QUEENS/BROOKLYN TO BE AROUND 80-LOWER 80S.
SHOULD SEE MAINLY MID 70S-AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT UPPER 60S-
LOWER 70S NEAR SOUTH FACING COASTLINES.

ALSO...INCREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY OVER W ZONES TO REFLECT
PASSING CIRRUS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT FORMATION AT AREA ATLANTIC BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE
PROMINENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH IN
PLACE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS LONG ISLAND. USED A BLEND OF MAV AND ECE FOR LOW
TEMPS...AGAIN SIDING WITH A RELATIVELY WARMER SOLUTION.

FOR MONDAY...THE 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES...OVERALL EXHIBITING A STEADY RISING TREND COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY. LIKEWISE...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS NEAR THE SURFACE TO
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. HOWEVER...AT THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...THE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEARLY THE SAME
AS THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS IN PLACE. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND INTO
THE EVENINGS EACH DAY THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS DEVELOP. THE AIR MASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH BUILD UP OF CAPE AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY.
IF THE HIGH AND RIDGE ARE STRONGER AND REMAIN IN PLACE...THE
INLAND AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY. FARTHER EAST IS MORE STABLE WHILE
FARTHER WEST WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE AS THAT IS WHERE WARMER AIR
WILL RESIDE SO CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHER NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC.

AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS FRIDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AND KEPT POPS AT CHANCE.

FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS
RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SW FLOW FOR MOST TERMINALS. SEA BREEZES HAVE PASSED THROUGH
KISP/KBDR/KGON/KJFK...AND SHOULD PASS THROUGH KLGA RIGHT AROUND
18Z. SEA BREEZES CURRENTLY NOT FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
KEWR/KTEB/KHPN...BUT THIS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY LATE THIS AFTN.

WINDS LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET TO UNDER 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. S/SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM EACH
AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY NW OF CITY TERMINALS TUE AND WED. COASTAL
SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AT
TIMES COULD APPROACH 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...
ESPECIALLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5 FEET
OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...PROBABLY BEGINNING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOCAL NON OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOG/POOR VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO
LATE WEEK AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG VERTICAL MIXING WILL BRING DOWN LOWER DEWPOINTS FROM THE
LOW LEVELS. AS A RESULT...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN
THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH...WILL ENHANCE
THE SPREAD AND GROWTH OF ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR COASTAL CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN
QUEENS...NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES...WHERE MORE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JM
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/MET
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JM



000
FXUS61 KOKX 241741
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
141 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE HIGH THEN
MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA FROM THE MIDDLE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HOURLY TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST.
HAVE INCREASED HIGHS 1-2 CATEGORIES AS A RESULT...CONSISTENT WITH
A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDING...A
MIX OF WARMER MET/EKD GUIDANCE...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
WOULD EXPECT NE NJ OUTSIDE OF NE NJ...AND NYC IMMEDIATELY AWAY
FROM THE S SHORE OF QUEENS/BROOKLYN TO BE AROUND 80-LOWER 80S.
SHOULD SEE MAINLY MID 70S-AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT UPPER 60S-
LOWER 70S NEAR SOUTH FACING COASTLINES.

ALSO...INCREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY OVER W ZONES TO REFLECT
PASSING CIRRUS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT FORMATION AT AREA ATLANTIC BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE
PROMINENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH IN
PLACE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS LONG ISLAND. USED A BLEND OF MAV AND ECE FOR LOW
TEMPS...AGAIN SIDING WITH A RELATIVELY WARMER SOLUTION.

FOR MONDAY...THE 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES...OVERALL EXHIBITING A STEADY RISING TREND COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY. LIKEWISE...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS NEAR THE SURFACE TO
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. HOWEVER...AT THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...THE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEARLY THE SAME
AS THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS IN PLACE. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND INTO
THE EVENINGS EACH DAY THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS DEVELOP. THE AIR MASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH BUILD UP OF CAPE AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY.
IF THE HIGH AND RIDGE ARE STRONGER AND REMAIN IN PLACE...THE
INLAND AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY. FARTHER EAST IS MORE STABLE WHILE
FARTHER WEST WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE AS THAT IS WHERE WARMER AIR
WILL RESIDE SO CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHER NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC.

AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS FRIDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AND KEPT POPS AT CHANCE.

FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS
RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SW FLOW FOR MOST TERMINALS. SEA BREEZES HAVE PASSED THROUGH
KISP/KBDR/KGON/KJFK...AND SHOULD PASS THROUGH KLGA RIGHT AROUND
18Z. SEA BREEZES CURRENTLY NOT FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
KEWR/KTEB/KHPN...BUT THIS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY LATE THIS AFTN.

WINDS LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET TO UNDER 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. S/SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM EACH
AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY NW OF CITY TERMINALS TUE AND WED. COASTAL
SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AT
TIMES COULD APPROACH 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...
ESPECIALLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5 FEET
OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...PROBABLY BEGINNING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOCAL NON OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOG/POOR VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO
LATE WEEK AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG VERTICAL MIXING WILL BRING DOWN LOWER DEWPOINTS FROM THE
LOW LEVELS. AS A RESULT...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN
THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH...WILL ENHANCE
THE SPREAD AND GROWTH OF ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR COASTAL CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN
QUEENS...NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES...WHERE MORE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JM
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/MET
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A
STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WARM SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST
WITH LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE OVER PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND
CLOUD COVER DIMINISHED A BIT. WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...CAN`T RULE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP. TEMPS PROFILES CONTINUE TO MODERATE...AND SURFACE
READINGS RESPONDING TO THIS WARMING AND PARTIAL SUN ALONG WITH
WEST- SOUTHWEST BREEZE. READINGS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S AND WILL TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 70S WITH SOME LOWER 80S IN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE) AND
THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION FAR
NORTHEAST WILL THEN END BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER, LEAVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
WILL THEN TREND GRADUALLY CLOUDY LATER AT NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A
STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES. A
BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING, THOUGH MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST.

BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN NY COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AND HAVE OFFERED HIGHEST POPS/STEADIER SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND NOMINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN A MORE LIMITED FASHION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD ACHIEVE
LATE DAY VALUES IN UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH
AND EAST OF THESE AREAS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH ANY STEADIER MORNING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS EXITING
OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH TIME AND SKIES TRENDING PARTLY
SUNNY IN MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ON BOARD SHOWING
REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A
MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING HOWEVER, SO
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DISORGANIZED WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY REMAINING
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH, WITH PERHAPS
OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON ON TAP AS AFTERNOON 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE +20 TO +23C RANGE PER LATEST
NAM/GFS/EURO OUTPUT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST SPOTS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW WARMER LOCALES IN THE BROADER
VALLEYS NEARING THE 90F MARK.  DEFINITELY A TIME TO CONSIDER DUSTING
OFF THE AIR CONDITIONERS AFTER A 9-MONTH HIATUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF FA FOR WARM/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA
AS WELL AS OPPORTUNITIES FOR MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO RIDGE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. IT WILL BE MOIST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER TUES
NGT/WED BEFORE A NORTHERN WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WED NGT
THEN AGAIN PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES FRI NGT/SAT
BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT.

IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY AND ALTHOUGH NOT A WIDESPREAD NEEDED SOAKING
RAIN...WARM MOIST FLOW WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND A PERSISTENT
BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA SHOULD GIVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF
BENEFICIAL RAINS...ALBEIT WHEN IT DOES RAIN IT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE WARM WITH H925 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. HOW HIGH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER.

THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME CLOSER IN LINE ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS
ALTHOUGH PARALLEL UPPER FLOW ALWAYS HAS A TRICK UP ITS SLEEVE. RIGHT
NOW...A WEAK DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING WARM FRONT TUE NGT/WED WILL BRING
ABOUT CHANCE SHOWERS...PERHAPS THUNDER TUE NGT WITH NORTHERN
STREAM MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING AN EVENTUAL WASHED OUT FRONT
ACROSS FA WED FOR BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING
BOUNDARY ON THU MAY BRING ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THU THEN LOOKS DRY FOR FRI AHEAD OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND FRONT ON SAT. BETTER
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY ON SAT MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TOWARDS MORNING/AROUND SUNRISE. SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE WESTWARD
INTO NRN NY WITH VCSH POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND 10Z, REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS AT KMSS AND KSLK AROUND 12Z-13Z, BUT AREAS EAST LOOK TO
REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z/MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN
MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

WINDS OUT OF THE SW AT 6-12KTS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AT MOST SITES
OF 18-28KTS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 3-8KTS AND PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 105 PM SUNDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE
FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW TODAY AS THEY WERE ON
SATURDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH AT TIMES. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME DIFFICULT
TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...KGM
FIRE WEATHER...JMG/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A
STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WARM SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST
WITH LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE OVER PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND
CLOUD COVER DIMINISHED A BIT. WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...CAN`T RULE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP. TEMPS PROFILES CONTINUE TO MODERATE...AND SURFACE
READINGS RESPONDING TO THIS WARMING AND PARTIAL SUN ALONG WITH
WEST- SOUTHWEST BREEZE. READINGS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S AND WILL TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 70S WITH SOME LOWER 80S IN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE) AND
THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION FAR
NORTHEAST WILL THEN END BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER, LEAVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
WILL THEN TREND GRADUALLY CLOUDY LATER AT NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A
STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES. A
BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING, THOUGH MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST.

BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN NY COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AND HAVE OFFERED HIGHEST POPS/STEADIER SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND NOMINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN A MORE LIMITED FASHION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD ACHIEVE
LATE DAY VALUES IN UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH
AND EAST OF THESE AREAS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH ANY STEADIER MORNING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS EXITING
OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH TIME AND SKIES TRENDING PARTLY
SUNNY IN MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ON BOARD SHOWING
REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A
MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING HOWEVER, SO
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DISORGANIZED WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY REMAINING
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH, WITH PERHAPS
OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON ON TAP AS AFTERNOON 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE +20 TO +23C RANGE PER LATEST
NAM/GFS/EURO OUTPUT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST SPOTS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW WARMER LOCALES IN THE BROADER
VALLEYS NEARING THE 90F MARK.  DEFINITELY A TIME TO CONSIDER DUSTING
OFF THE AIR CONDITIONERS AFTER A 9-MONTH HIATUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF FA FOR WARM/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA
AS WELL AS OPPORTUNITIES FOR MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO RIDGE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. IT WILL BE MOIST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER TUES
NGT/WED BEFORE A NORTHERN WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WED NGT
THEN AGAIN PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES FRI NGT/SAT
BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT.

IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY AND ALTHOUGH NOT A WIDESPREAD NEEDED SOAKING
RAIN...WARM MOIST FLOW WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND A PERSISTENT
BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA SHOULD GIVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF
BENEFICIAL RAINS...ALBEIT WHEN IT DOES RAIN IT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE WARM WITH H925 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. HOW HIGH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER.

THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME CLOSER IN LINE ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS
ALTHOUGH PARALLEL UPPER FLOW ALWAYS HAS A TRICK UP ITS SLEEVE. RIGHT
NOW...A WEAK DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING WARM FRONT TUE NGT/WED WILL BRING
ABOUT CHANCE SHOWERS...PERHAPS THUNDER TUE NGT WITH NORTHERN
STREAM MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING AN EVENTUAL WASHED OUT FRONT
ACROSS FA WED FOR BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING
BOUNDARY ON THU MAY BRING ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THU THEN LOOKS DRY FOR FRI AHEAD OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND FRONT ON SAT. BETTER
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY ON SAT MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TOWARDS MORNING/AROUND SUNRISE. SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE WESTWARD
INTO NRN NY WITH VCSH POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND 10Z, REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS AT KMSS AND KSLK AROUND 12Z-13Z, BUT AREAS EAST LOOK TO
REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z/MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN
MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

WINDS OUT OF THE SW AT 6-12KTS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AT MOST SITES
OF 18-28KTS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 3-8KTS AND PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 105 PM SUNDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE
FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW TODAY AS THEY WERE ON
SATURDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH AT TIMES. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME DIFFICULT
TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...KGM
FIRE WEATHER...JMG/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A
STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WARM SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST
WITH LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE OVER PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND
CLOUD COVER DIMINISHED A BIT. WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...CAN`T RULE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP. TEMPS PROFILES CONTINUE TO MODERATE...AND SURFACE
READINGS RESPONDING TO THIS WARMING AND PARTIAL SUN ALONG WITH
WEST- SOUTHWEST BREEZE. READINGS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S AND WILL TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 70S WITH SOME LOWER 80S IN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE) AND
THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION FAR
NORTHEAST WILL THEN END BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER, LEAVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
WILL THEN TREND GRADUALLY CLOUDY LATER AT NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A
STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES. A
BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING, THOUGH MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST.

BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN NY COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AND HAVE OFFERED HIGHEST POPS/STEADIER SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND NOMINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN A MORE LIMITED FASHION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD ACHIEVE
LATE DAY VALUES IN UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH
AND EAST OF THESE AREAS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH ANY STEADIER MORNING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS EXITING
OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH TIME AND SKIES TRENDING PARTLY
SUNNY IN MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ON BOARD SHOWING
REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A
MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING HOWEVER, SO
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DISORGANIZED WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY REMAINING
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH, WITH PERHAPS
OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON ON TAP AS AFTERNOON 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE +20 TO +23C RANGE PER LATEST
NAM/GFS/EURO OUTPUT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST SPOTS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW WARMER LOCALES IN THE BROADER
VALLEYS NEARING THE 90F MARK.  DEFINITELY A TIME TO CONSIDER DUSTING
OFF THE AIR CONDITIONERS AFTER A 9-MONTH HIATUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF FA FOR WARM/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA
AS WELL AS OPPORTUNITIES FOR MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO RIDGE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. IT WILL BE MOIST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER TUES
NGT/WED BEFORE A NORTHERN WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WED NGT
THEN AGAIN PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES FRI NGT/SAT
BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT.

IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY AND ALTHOUGH NOT A WIDESPREAD NEEDED SOAKING
RAIN...WARM MOIST FLOW WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND A PERSISTENT
BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA SHOULD GIVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF
BENEFICIAL RAINS...ALBEIT WHEN IT DOES RAIN IT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE WARM WITH H925 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. HOW HIGH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER.

THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME CLOSER IN LINE ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS
ALTHOUGH PARALLEL UPPER FLOW ALWAYS HAS A TRICK UP ITS SLEEVE. RIGHT
NOW...A WEAK DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING WARM FRONT TUE NGT/WED WILL BRING
ABOUT CHANCE SHOWERS...PERHAPS THUNDER TUE NGT WITH NORTHERN
STREAM MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING AN EVENTUAL WASHED OUT FRONT
ACROSS FA WED FOR BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING
BOUNDARY ON THU MAY BRING ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THU THEN LOOKS DRY FOR FRI AHEAD OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND FRONT ON SAT. BETTER
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY ON SAT MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TOWARDS MORNING/AROUND SUNRISE. SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE WESTWARD
INTO NRN NY WITH VCSH POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND 10Z, REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS AT KMSS AND KSLK AROUND 12Z-13Z, BUT AREAS EAST LOOK TO
REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z/MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN
MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

WINDS OUT OF THE SW AT 6-12KTS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AT MOST SITES
OF 18-28KTS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 3-8KTS AND PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 105 PM SUNDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE
FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW TODAY AS THEY WERE ON
SATURDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH AT TIMES. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME DIFFICULT
TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...KGM
FIRE WEATHER...JMG/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A
STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WARM SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST
WITH LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE OVER PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND
CLOUD COVER DIMINISHED A BIT. WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...CAN`T RULE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP. TEMPS PROFILES CONTINUE TO MODERATE...AND SURFACE
READINGS RESPONDING TO THIS WARMING AND PARTIAL SUN ALONG WITH
WEST- SOUTHWEST BREEZE. READINGS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S AND WILL TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 70S WITH SOME LOWER 80S IN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE) AND
THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION FAR
NORTHEAST WILL THEN END BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER, LEAVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
WILL THEN TREND GRADUALLY CLOUDY LATER AT NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A
STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES. A
BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING, THOUGH MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST.

BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN NY COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AND HAVE OFFERED HIGHEST POPS/STEADIER SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND NOMINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN A MORE LIMITED FASHION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD ACHIEVE
LATE DAY VALUES IN UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH
AND EAST OF THESE AREAS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH ANY STEADIER MORNING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS EXITING
OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH TIME AND SKIES TRENDING PARTLY
SUNNY IN MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ON BOARD SHOWING
REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A
MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING HOWEVER, SO
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DISORGANIZED WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY REMAINING
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH, WITH PERHAPS
OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON ON TAP AS AFTERNOON 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE +20 TO +23C RANGE PER LATEST
NAM/GFS/EURO OUTPUT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST SPOTS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW WARMER LOCALES IN THE BROADER
VALLEYS NEARING THE 90F MARK.  DEFINITELY A TIME TO CONSIDER DUSTING
OFF THE AIR CONDITIONERS AFTER A 9-MONTH HIATUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF FA FOR WARM/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA
AS WELL AS OPPORTUNITIES FOR MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO RIDGE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. IT WILL BE MOIST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER TUES
NGT/WED BEFORE A NORTHERN WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WED NGT
THEN AGAIN PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES FRI NGT/SAT
BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT.

IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY AND ALTHOUGH NOT A WIDESPREAD NEEDED SOAKING
RAIN...WARM MOIST FLOW WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND A PERSISTENT
BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA SHOULD GIVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF
BENEFICIAL RAINS...ALBEIT WHEN IT DOES RAIN IT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE WARM WITH H925 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. HOW HIGH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER.

THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME CLOSER IN LINE ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS
ALTHOUGH PARALLEL UPPER FLOW ALWAYS HAS A TRICK UP ITS SLEEVE. RIGHT
NOW...A WEAK DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING WARM FRONT TUE NGT/WED WILL BRING
ABOUT CHANCE SHOWERS...PERHAPS THUNDER TUE NGT WITH NORTHERN
STREAM MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING AN EVENTUAL WASHED OUT FRONT
ACROSS FA WED FOR BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING
BOUNDARY ON THU MAY BRING ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THU THEN LOOKS DRY FOR FRI AHEAD OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND FRONT ON SAT. BETTER
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY ON SAT MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TOWARDS MORNING/AROUND SUNRISE. SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE WESTWARD
INTO NRN NY WITH VCSH POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND 10Z, REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS AT KMSS AND KSLK AROUND 12Z-13Z, BUT AREAS EAST LOOK TO
REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z/MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN
MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

WINDS OUT OF THE SW AT 6-12KTS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AT MOST SITES
OF 18-28KTS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 3-8KTS AND PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 105 PM SUNDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE
FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW TODAY AS THEY WERE ON
SATURDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH AT TIMES. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME DIFFICULT
TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...KGM
FIRE WEATHER...JMG/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A
STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WARM SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST
WITH LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE OVER PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND
CLOUD COVER DIMINISHED A BIT. WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...CAN`T RULE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP. TEMPS PROFILES CONTINUE TO MODERATE...AND SURFACE
READINGS RESPONDING TO THIS WARMING AND PARTIAL SUN ALONG WITH
WEST- SOUTHWEST BREEZE. READINGS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S AND WILL TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 70S WITH SOME LOWER 80S IN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE) AND
THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION FAR
NORTHEAST WILL THEN END BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER, LEAVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
WILL THEN TREND GRADUALLY CLOUDY LATER AT NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A
STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES. A
BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING, THOUGH MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST.

BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN NY COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AND HAVE OFFERED HIGHEST POPS/STEADIER SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND NOMINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN A MORE LIMITED FASHION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD ACHIEVE
LATE DAY VALUES IN UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH
AND EAST OF THESE AREAS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH ANY STEADIER MORNING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS EXITING
OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH TIME AND SKIES TRENDING PARTLY
SUNNY IN MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ON BOARD SHOWING
REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A
MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING HOWEVER, SO
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DISORGANIZED WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY REMAINING
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH, WITH PERHAPS
OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON ON TAP AS AFTERNOON 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE +20 TO +23C RANGE PER LATEST
NAM/GFS/EURO OUTPUT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST SPOTS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW WARMER LOCALES IN THE BROADER
VALLEYS NEARING THE 90F MARK.  DEFINITELY A TIME TO CONSIDER DUSTING
OFF THE AIR CONDITIONERS AFTER A 9-MONTH HIATUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF FA FOR WARM/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA
AS WELL AS OPPORTUNITIES FOR MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO RIDGE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. IT WILL BE MOIST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER TUES
NGT/WED BEFORE A NORTHERN WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WED NGT
THEN AGAIN PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES FRI NGT/SAT
BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT.

IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY AND ALTHOUGH NOT A WIDESPREAD NEEDED SOAKING
RAIN...WARM MOIST FLOW WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND A PERSISTENT
BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA SHOULD GIVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF
BENEFICIAL RAINS...ALBEIT WHEN IT DOES RAIN IT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE WARM WITH H925 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. HOW HIGH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER.

THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME CLOSER IN LINE ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS
ALTHOUGH PARALLEL UPPER FLOW ALWAYS HAS A TRICK UP ITS SLEEVE. RIGHT
NOW...A WEAK DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING WARM FRONT TUE NGT/WED WILL BRING
ABOUT CHANCE SHOWERS...PERHAPS THUNDER TUE NGT WITH NORTHERN
STREAM MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING AN EVENTUAL WASHED OUT FRONT
ACROSS FA WED FOR BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING
BOUNDARY ON THU MAY BRING ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THU THEN LOOKS DRY FOR FRI AHEAD OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND FRONT ON SAT. BETTER
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY ON SAT MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TOWARDS MORNING/AROUND SUNRISE. SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE WESTWARD
INTO NRN NY WITH VCSH POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND 10Z, REACHING THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS AT KMSS AND KSLK AROUND 12Z-13Z, BUT AREAS EAST LOOK TO
REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z/MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN
MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS.

WINDS OUT OF THE SW AT 6-12KTS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AT MOST SITES
OF 18-28KTS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 3-8KTS AND PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 105 PM SUNDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE
FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW TODAY AS THEY WERE ON
SATURDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH AT TIMES. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME DIFFICULT
TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...KGM
FIRE WEATHER...JMG/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241709
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
109 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A
STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WARM SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST
WITH LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE OVER PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND
CLOUD COVER DIMINISHED A BIT. WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...CAN`T RULE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP. TEMPS PROFILES CONTINUE TO MODERATE...AND SURFACE
READINGS RESPONDING TO THIS WARMING AND PARTIAL SUN ALONG WITH
WEST- SOUTHWEST BREEZE. READINGS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S AND WILL TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 70S WITH SOME LOWER 80S IN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE) AND
THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION FAR
NORTHEAST WILL THEN END BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER, LEAVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
WILL THEN TREND GRADUALLY CLOUDY LATER AT NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A
STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES. A
BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING, THOUGH MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST.

BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN NY COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AND HAVE OFFERED HIGHEST POPS/STEADIER SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND NOMINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN A MORE LIMITED FASHION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD ACHIEVE
LATE DAY VALUES IN UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH
AND EAST OF THESE AREAS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH ANY STEADIER MORNING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS EXITING
OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH TIME AND SKIES TRENDING PARTLY
SUNNY IN MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ON BOARD SHOWING
REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A
MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING HOWEVER, SO
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DISORGANZIED WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY REMAINING
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH, WITH PERHAPS
OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON ON TAP AS AFTERNOON 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE +20 TO +23C RANGE PER LATEST
NAM/GFS/EURO OUTPUT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST SPOTS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW WARMER LOCALES IN THE BROADER
VALLEYS NEARING THE 90F MARK.  DEFINITELY A TIME TO CONSIDER DUSTING
OFF THE AIR CONDITIONERS AFTER A 9-MONTH HIATUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF FA FOR WARM/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA
AS WELL AS OPPORTUNITIES FOR MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO RIDGE
AROUND THE PERIPERHY OF THE RIDGE. IT WILL BE MOIST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER TUES
NGT/WED BEFORE A NORTHERN WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WED NGT
THEN AGAIN PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES FRI NGT/SAT
BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT.

IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY AND ALTHOUGH NOT A WIDESPREAD NEEDED SOAKING
RAIN...WARM MOIST FLOW WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND A PERSISTENT
BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA SHOULD GIVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF
BENEFICIAL RAINS...ALBEIT WHEN IT DOES RAIN IT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE WARM WITH H925 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. HOW HIGH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER.

THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME CLOSER IN LINE ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS
ALTHOUGH PARALLEL UPPER FLOW ALWAYS HAS A TRICK UP ITS SLEEVE. RIGHT
NOW...A WEAK DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING WARM FRONT TUE NGT/WED WILL BRING
ABOUT CHANCE SHOWERS...PERHAPS THUNDR TUE NGT WITH NORTHERN STREAM
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING AN EVENTUAL WASHED OUT FRONT ACROSS FA
WED FOR BETTER CHANCE OF TSTRMS. LINGERING BOUNDARY ON THU MAY BRING
ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTRMS THU THEN LOOKS DRY FOR FRI
AHEAD OF MORE SIGNFICANT NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND FRONT ON
SAT. BETTER DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY ON SAT MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS TOWARD 12Z MON.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY - THURSDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 105 PM SUNDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE
FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW TODAY AS THEY WERE ON
SATURDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH AT TIMES. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME DIFFICULT
TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
FIRE WEATHER...JMG/RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 241709
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
109 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A
STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WARM SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST
WITH LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE OVER PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND
CLOUD COVER DIMINISHED A BIT. WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...CAN`T RULE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP. TEMPS PROFILES CONTINUE TO MODERATE...AND SURFACE
READINGS RESPONDING TO THIS WARMING AND PARTIAL SUN ALONG WITH
WEST- SOUTHWEST BREEZE. READINGS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S AND WILL TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 70S WITH SOME LOWER 80S IN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE) AND
THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION FAR
NORTHEAST WILL THEN END BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER, LEAVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
WILL THEN TREND GRADUALLY CLOUDY LATER AT NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A
STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES. A
BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING, THOUGH MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST.

BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN NY COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AND HAVE OFFERED HIGHEST POPS/STEADIER SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND NOMINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN A MORE LIMITED FASHION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD ACHIEVE
LATE DAY VALUES IN UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH
AND EAST OF THESE AREAS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH ANY STEADIER MORNING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS EXITING
OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH TIME AND SKIES TRENDING PARTLY
SUNNY IN MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ON BOARD SHOWING
REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A
MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING HOWEVER, SO
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DISORGANZIED WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY REMAINING
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH, WITH PERHAPS
OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON ON TAP AS AFTERNOON 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE +20 TO +23C RANGE PER LATEST
NAM/GFS/EURO OUTPUT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST SPOTS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW WARMER LOCALES IN THE BROADER
VALLEYS NEARING THE 90F MARK.  DEFINITELY A TIME TO CONSIDER DUSTING
OFF THE AIR CONDITIONERS AFTER A 9-MONTH HIATUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF FA FOR WARM/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA
AS WELL AS OPPORTUNITIES FOR MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO RIDGE
AROUND THE PERIPERHY OF THE RIDGE. IT WILL BE MOIST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER TUES
NGT/WED BEFORE A NORTHERN WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WED NGT
THEN AGAIN PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES FRI NGT/SAT
BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT.

IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY AND ALTHOUGH NOT A WIDESPREAD NEEDED SOAKING
RAIN...WARM MOIST FLOW WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND A PERSISTENT
BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA SHOULD GIVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF
BENEFICIAL RAINS...ALBEIT WHEN IT DOES RAIN IT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE WARM WITH H925 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. HOW HIGH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER.

THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME CLOSER IN LINE ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS
ALTHOUGH PARALLEL UPPER FLOW ALWAYS HAS A TRICK UP ITS SLEEVE. RIGHT
NOW...A WEAK DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING WARM FRONT TUE NGT/WED WILL BRING
ABOUT CHANCE SHOWERS...PERHAPS THUNDR TUE NGT WITH NORTHERN STREAM
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING AN EVENTUAL WASHED OUT FRONT ACROSS FA
WED FOR BETTER CHANCE OF TSTRMS. LINGERING BOUNDARY ON THU MAY BRING
ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTRMS THU THEN LOOKS DRY FOR FRI
AHEAD OF MORE SIGNFICANT NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND FRONT ON
SAT. BETTER DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY ON SAT MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS TOWARD 12Z MON.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY - THURSDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 105 PM SUNDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE
FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW TODAY AS THEY WERE ON
SATURDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH AT TIMES. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME DIFFICULT
TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
FIRE WEATHER...JMG/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241709
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
109 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A
STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WARM SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST
WITH LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE OVER PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND
CLOUD COVER DIMINISHED A BIT. WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...CAN`T RULE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP. TEMPS PROFILES CONTINUE TO MODERATE...AND SURFACE
READINGS RESPONDING TO THIS WARMING AND PARTIAL SUN ALONG WITH
WEST- SOUTHWEST BREEZE. READINGS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S AND WILL TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 70S WITH SOME LOWER 80S IN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE) AND
THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION FAR
NORTHEAST WILL THEN END BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER, LEAVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
WILL THEN TREND GRADUALLY CLOUDY LATER AT NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A
STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES. A
BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING, THOUGH MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST.

BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN NY COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AND HAVE OFFERED HIGHEST POPS/STEADIER SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND NOMINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN A MORE LIMITED FASHION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD ACHIEVE
LATE DAY VALUES IN UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH
AND EAST OF THESE AREAS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH ANY STEADIER MORNING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS EXITING
OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH TIME AND SKIES TRENDING PARTLY
SUNNY IN MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ON BOARD SHOWING
REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A
MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING HOWEVER, SO
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DISORGANZIED WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY REMAINING
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH, WITH PERHAPS
OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON ON TAP AS AFTERNOON 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE +20 TO +23C RANGE PER LATEST
NAM/GFS/EURO OUTPUT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST SPOTS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW WARMER LOCALES IN THE BROADER
VALLEYS NEARING THE 90F MARK.  DEFINITELY A TIME TO CONSIDER DUSTING
OFF THE AIR CONDITIONERS AFTER A 9-MONTH HIATUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF FA FOR WARM/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA
AS WELL AS OPPORTUNITIES FOR MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO RIDGE
AROUND THE PERIPERHY OF THE RIDGE. IT WILL BE MOIST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER TUES
NGT/WED BEFORE A NORTHERN WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WED NGT
THEN AGAIN PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES FRI NGT/SAT
BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT.

IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY AND ALTHOUGH NOT A WIDESPREAD NEEDED SOAKING
RAIN...WARM MOIST FLOW WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND A PERSISTENT
BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA SHOULD GIVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF
BENEFICIAL RAINS...ALBEIT WHEN IT DOES RAIN IT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE WARM WITH H925 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. HOW HIGH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER.

THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME CLOSER IN LINE ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS
ALTHOUGH PARALLEL UPPER FLOW ALWAYS HAS A TRICK UP ITS SLEEVE. RIGHT
NOW...A WEAK DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING WARM FRONT TUE NGT/WED WILL BRING
ABOUT CHANCE SHOWERS...PERHAPS THUNDR TUE NGT WITH NORTHERN STREAM
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING AN EVENTUAL WASHED OUT FRONT ACROSS FA
WED FOR BETTER CHANCE OF TSTRMS. LINGERING BOUNDARY ON THU MAY BRING
ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTRMS THU THEN LOOKS DRY FOR FRI
AHEAD OF MORE SIGNFICANT NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND FRONT ON
SAT. BETTER DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY ON SAT MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS TOWARD 12Z MON.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY - THURSDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 105 PM SUNDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE
FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW TODAY AS THEY WERE ON
SATURDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH AT TIMES. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME DIFFICULT
TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
FIRE WEATHER...JMG/RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 241709
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
109 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A
STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WARM SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST
WITH LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE OVER PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND
CLOUD COVER DIMINISHED A BIT. WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...CAN`T RULE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP. TEMPS PROFILES CONTINUE TO MODERATE...AND SURFACE
READINGS RESPONDING TO THIS WARMING AND PARTIAL SUN ALONG WITH
WEST- SOUTHWEST BREEZE. READINGS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S AND WILL TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 70S WITH SOME LOWER 80S IN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE) AND
THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION FAR
NORTHEAST WILL THEN END BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER, LEAVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
WILL THEN TREND GRADUALLY CLOUDY LATER AT NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A
STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES. A
BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING, THOUGH MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST.

BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN NY COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AND HAVE OFFERED HIGHEST POPS/STEADIER SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND NOMINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN A MORE LIMITED FASHION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD ACHIEVE
LATE DAY VALUES IN UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH
AND EAST OF THESE AREAS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH ANY STEADIER MORNING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS EXITING
OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH TIME AND SKIES TRENDING PARTLY
SUNNY IN MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ON BOARD SHOWING
REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A
MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING HOWEVER, SO
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DISORGANZIED WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY REMAINING
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH, WITH PERHAPS
OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON ON TAP AS AFTERNOON 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE +20 TO +23C RANGE PER LATEST
NAM/GFS/EURO OUTPUT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST SPOTS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW WARMER LOCALES IN THE BROADER
VALLEYS NEARING THE 90F MARK.  DEFINITELY A TIME TO CONSIDER DUSTING
OFF THE AIR CONDITIONERS AFTER A 9-MONTH HIATUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF FA FOR WARM/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA
AS WELL AS OPPORTUNITIES FOR MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO RIDGE
AROUND THE PERIPERHY OF THE RIDGE. IT WILL BE MOIST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER TUES
NGT/WED BEFORE A NORTHERN WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WED NGT
THEN AGAIN PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES FRI NGT/SAT
BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT.

IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY AND ALTHOUGH NOT A WIDESPREAD NEEDED SOAKING
RAIN...WARM MOIST FLOW WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND A PERSISTENT
BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA SHOULD GIVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF
BENEFICIAL RAINS...ALBEIT WHEN IT DOES RAIN IT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE WARM WITH H925 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. HOW HIGH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER.

THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME CLOSER IN LINE ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS
ALTHOUGH PARALLEL UPPER FLOW ALWAYS HAS A TRICK UP ITS SLEEVE. RIGHT
NOW...A WEAK DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING WARM FRONT TUE NGT/WED WILL BRING
ABOUT CHANCE SHOWERS...PERHAPS THUNDR TUE NGT WITH NORTHERN STREAM
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING AN EVENTUAL WASHED OUT FRONT ACROSS FA
WED FOR BETTER CHANCE OF TSTRMS. LINGERING BOUNDARY ON THU MAY BRING
ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTRMS THU THEN LOOKS DRY FOR FRI
AHEAD OF MORE SIGNFICANT NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND FRONT ON
SAT. BETTER DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY ON SAT MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS TOWARD 12Z MON.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY - THURSDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 105 PM SUNDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE
FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW TODAY AS THEY WERE ON
SATURDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH AT TIMES. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME DIFFICULT
TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
FIRE WEATHER...JMG/RJS




000
FXUS61 KALY 241709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SCT-BKN AC DECK
JUST ALONG THE NORTHERN CWFA WITH FEW-THIN/SCT CI/CS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WERE RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES BUT RECENT DOWN TRENDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.  EITHER
WAY...A DELIGHTFUL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AS THE MAIN UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW WAS DEPARTING WITH RISING HEIGHTS UNDERWAY. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDING NICELY WITH MID 70S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND AROUND 70F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS LOOK IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. SO THE MAIN UPDATES WERE TO THE SKY
COVERAGE AND HOURLY GRIDS PER OBSERVATIONS.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE STRENGTHENING WITH
HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST.
OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MUCH
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE
I-90 CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE
FL AND LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN
CATSKILLS...NRN BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY
INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE 0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. PWAT VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO.
THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED
TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING FOR ALL TAF SITES.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN NY
THIS AFTN. WHILE SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY ONLY BE FEW-SCT...MOST
SITES LOOK TO HAVE BKN CIGS AT 25 KFT THANKS TO A THIN LAYER OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THIS EVENING. W-SW WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS...BUT LOOK TO DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES...AS THE BEST
FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. SEVERAL LAYERS OF BKN CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE LOWEST LAYER AT 8-12 KFT. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL HELP PREVENT ANY
RADIATIONAL FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT.

A SFC WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
/MEMORIAL DAY/.  MOST OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO MISS THE REGION TO THE NORTH/WEST...BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT A SHOWER AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY...ESP AFTER 18Z.  CIGS
WILL GENERALLY BE BKN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KBTV 241709
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
109 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A
STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WARM SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST
WITH LATEST UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE OVER PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND
CLOUD COVER DIMINISHED A BIT. WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...CAN`T RULE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS SHOULD THEY
DEVELOP. TEMPS PROFILES CONTINUE TO MODERATE...AND SURFACE
READINGS RESPONDING TO THIS WARMING AND PARTIAL SUN ALONG WITH
WEST- SOUTHWEST BREEZE. READINGS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S AND WILL TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 70S WITH SOME LOWER 80S IN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE) AND
THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION FAR
NORTHEAST WILL THEN END BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER, LEAVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
WILL THEN TREND GRADUALLY CLOUDY LATER AT NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A
STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES. A
BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING, THOUGH MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST.

BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN NY COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AND HAVE OFFERED HIGHEST POPS/STEADIER SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND NOMINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN A MORE LIMITED FASHION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD ACHIEVE
LATE DAY VALUES IN UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH
AND EAST OF THESE AREAS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH ANY STEADIER MORNING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS EXITING
OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH TIME AND SKIES TRENDING PARTLY
SUNNY IN MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ON BOARD SHOWING
REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A
MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING HOWEVER, SO
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DISORGANZIED WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY REMAINING
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH, WITH PERHAPS
OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON ON TAP AS AFTERNOON 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE +20 TO +23C RANGE PER LATEST
NAM/GFS/EURO OUTPUT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST SPOTS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW WARMER LOCALES IN THE BROADER
VALLEYS NEARING THE 90F MARK.  DEFINITELY A TIME TO CONSIDER DUSTING
OFF THE AIR CONDITIONERS AFTER A 9-MONTH HIATUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF FA FOR WARM/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA
AS WELL AS OPPORTUNITIES FOR MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO RIDGE
AROUND THE PERIPERHY OF THE RIDGE. IT WILL BE MOIST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER TUES
NGT/WED BEFORE A NORTHERN WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WED NGT
THEN AGAIN PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES FRI NGT/SAT
BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT.

IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY AND ALTHOUGH NOT A WIDESPREAD NEEDED SOAKING
RAIN...WARM MOIST FLOW WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND A PERSISTENT
BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA SHOULD GIVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF
BENEFICIAL RAINS...ALBEIT WHEN IT DOES RAIN IT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE WARM WITH H925 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. HOW HIGH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER.

THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME CLOSER IN LINE ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS
ALTHOUGH PARALLEL UPPER FLOW ALWAYS HAS A TRICK UP ITS SLEEVE. RIGHT
NOW...A WEAK DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING WARM FRONT TUE NGT/WED WILL BRING
ABOUT CHANCE SHOWERS...PERHAPS THUNDR TUE NGT WITH NORTHERN STREAM
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING AN EVENTUAL WASHED OUT FRONT ACROSS FA
WED FOR BETTER CHANCE OF TSTRMS. LINGERING BOUNDARY ON THU MAY BRING
ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTRMS THU THEN LOOKS DRY FOR FRI
AHEAD OF MORE SIGNFICANT NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND FRONT ON
SAT. BETTER DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY ON SAT MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS TOWARD 12Z MON.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY - THURSDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 105 PM SUNDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE
FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW TODAY AS THEY WERE ON
SATURDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH AT TIMES. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME DIFFICULT
TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
FIRE WEATHER...JMG/RJS




000
FXUS61 KALY 241709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SCT-BKN AC DECK
JUST ALONG THE NORTHERN CWFA WITH FEW-THIN/SCT CI/CS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WERE RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES BUT RECENT DOWN TRENDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.  EITHER
WAY...A DELIGHTFUL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AS THE MAIN UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW WAS DEPARTING WITH RISING HEIGHTS UNDERWAY. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDING NICELY WITH MID 70S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND AROUND 70F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS LOOK IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. SO THE MAIN UPDATES WERE TO THE SKY
COVERAGE AND HOURLY GRIDS PER OBSERVATIONS.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE STRENGTHENING WITH
HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST.
OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MUCH
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE
I-90 CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE
FL AND LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN
CATSKILLS...NRN BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY
INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE 0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. PWAT VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO.
THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED
TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING FOR ALL TAF SITES.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN NY
THIS AFTN. WHILE SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY ONLY BE FEW-SCT...MOST
SITES LOOK TO HAVE BKN CIGS AT 25 KFT THANKS TO A THIN LAYER OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THIS EVENING. W-SW WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS...BUT LOOK TO DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES...AS THE BEST
FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. SEVERAL LAYERS OF BKN CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE LOWEST LAYER AT 8-12 KFT. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL HELP PREVENT ANY
RADIATIONAL FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT.

A SFC WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
/MEMORIAL DAY/.  MOST OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO MISS THE REGION TO THE NORTH/WEST...BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT A SHOWER AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY...ESP AFTER 18Z.  CIGS
WILL GENERALLY BE BKN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 241709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SCT-BKN AC DECK
JUST ALONG THE NORTHERN CWFA WITH FEW-THIN/SCT CI/CS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WERE RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES BUT RECENT DOWN TRENDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.  EITHER
WAY...A DELIGHTFUL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AS THE MAIN UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW WAS DEPARTING WITH RISING HEIGHTS UNDERWAY. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDING NICELY WITH MID 70S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND AROUND 70F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS LOOK IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. SO THE MAIN UPDATES WERE TO THE SKY
COVERAGE AND HOURLY GRIDS PER OBSERVATIONS.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE STRENGTHENING WITH
HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST.
OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MUCH
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE
I-90 CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE
FL AND LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN
CATSKILLS...NRN BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY
INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE 0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. PWAT VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO.
THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED
TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING FOR ALL TAF SITES.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN NY
THIS AFTN. WHILE SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY ONLY BE FEW-SCT...MOST
SITES LOOK TO HAVE BKN CIGS AT 25 KFT THANKS TO A THIN LAYER OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THIS EVENING. W-SW WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS...BUT LOOK TO DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES...AS THE BEST
FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. SEVERAL LAYERS OF BKN CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE LOWEST LAYER AT 8-12 KFT. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL HELP PREVENT ANY
RADIATIONAL FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT.

A SFC WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
/MEMORIAL DAY/.  MOST OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO MISS THE REGION TO THE NORTH/WEST...BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT A SHOWER AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY...ESP AFTER 18Z.  CIGS
WILL GENERALLY BE BKN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 241709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SCT-BKN AC DECK
JUST ALONG THE NORTHERN CWFA WITH FEW-THIN/SCT CI/CS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WERE RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES BUT RECENT DOWN TRENDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.  EITHER
WAY...A DELIGHTFUL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AS THE MAIN UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW WAS DEPARTING WITH RISING HEIGHTS UNDERWAY. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDING NICELY WITH MID 70S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND AROUND 70F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS LOOK IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. SO THE MAIN UPDATES WERE TO THE SKY
COVERAGE AND HOURLY GRIDS PER OBSERVATIONS.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE STRENGTHENING WITH
HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST.
OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MUCH
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE
I-90 CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE
FL AND LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN
CATSKILLS...NRN BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY
INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE 0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. PWAT VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO.
THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED
TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING FOR ALL TAF SITES.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN NY
THIS AFTN. WHILE SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY ONLY BE FEW-SCT...MOST
SITES LOOK TO HAVE BKN CIGS AT 25 KFT THANKS TO A THIN LAYER OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THIS EVENING. W-SW WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS...BUT LOOK TO DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES...AS THE BEST
FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. SEVERAL LAYERS OF BKN CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE LOWEST LAYER AT 8-12 KFT. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL HELP PREVENT ANY
RADIATIONAL FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT.

A SFC WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
/MEMORIAL DAY/.  MOST OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO MISS THE REGION TO THE NORTH/WEST...BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT A SHOWER AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY...ESP AFTER 18Z.  CIGS
WILL GENERALLY BE BKN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 241709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SCT-BKN AC DECK
JUST ALONG THE NORTHERN CWFA WITH FEW-THIN/SCT CI/CS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WERE RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES BUT RECENT DOWN TRENDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.  EITHER
WAY...A DELIGHTFUL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AS THE MAIN UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW WAS DEPARTING WITH RISING HEIGHTS UNDERWAY. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDING NICELY WITH MID 70S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND AROUND 70F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS LOOK IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. SO THE MAIN UPDATES WERE TO THE SKY
COVERAGE AND HOURLY GRIDS PER OBSERVATIONS.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE STRENGTHENING WITH
HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST.
OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MUCH
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE
I-90 CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE
FL AND LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN
CATSKILLS...NRN BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY
INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE 0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. PWAT VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO.
THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED
TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING FOR ALL TAF SITES.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN NY
THIS AFTN. WHILE SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY ONLY BE FEW-SCT...MOST
SITES LOOK TO HAVE BKN CIGS AT 25 KFT THANKS TO A THIN LAYER OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THIS EVENING. W-SW WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS...BUT LOOK TO DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES...AS THE BEST
FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. SEVERAL LAYERS OF BKN CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE LOWEST LAYER AT 8-12 KFT. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL HELP PREVENT ANY
RADIATIONAL FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT.

A SFC WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
/MEMORIAL DAY/.  MOST OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO MISS THE REGION TO THE NORTH/WEST...BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT A SHOWER AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY...ESP AFTER 18Z.  CIGS
WILL GENERALLY BE BKN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 241709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SCT-BKN AC DECK
JUST ALONG THE NORTHERN CWFA WITH FEW-THIN/SCT CI/CS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WERE RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES BUT RECENT DOWN TRENDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.  EITHER
WAY...A DELIGHTFUL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AS THE MAIN UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW WAS DEPARTING WITH RISING HEIGHTS UNDERWAY. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDING NICELY WITH MID 70S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND AROUND 70F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS LOOK IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. SO THE MAIN UPDATES WERE TO THE SKY
COVERAGE AND HOURLY GRIDS PER OBSERVATIONS.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE STRENGTHENING WITH
HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST.
OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MUCH
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE
I-90 CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE
FL AND LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN
CATSKILLS...NRN BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY
INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE 0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. PWAT VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO.
THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED
TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING FOR ALL TAF SITES.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN NY
THIS AFTN. WHILE SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY ONLY BE FEW-SCT...MOST
SITES LOOK TO HAVE BKN CIGS AT 25 KFT THANKS TO A THIN LAYER OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THIS EVENING. W-SW WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS...BUT LOOK TO DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES...AS THE BEST
FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. SEVERAL LAYERS OF BKN CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE LOWEST LAYER AT 8-12 KFT. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL HELP PREVENT ANY
RADIATIONAL FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT.

A SFC WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
/MEMORIAL DAY/.  MOST OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO MISS THE REGION TO THE NORTH/WEST...BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT A SHOWER AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY...ESP AFTER 18Z.  CIGS
WILL GENERALLY BE BKN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 241709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SCT-BKN AC DECK
JUST ALONG THE NORTHERN CWFA WITH FEW-THIN/SCT CI/CS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WERE RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES BUT RECENT DOWN TRENDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.  EITHER
WAY...A DELIGHTFUL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AS THE MAIN UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW WAS DEPARTING WITH RISING HEIGHTS UNDERWAY. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDING NICELY WITH MID 70S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND AROUND 70F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS LOOK IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. SO THE MAIN UPDATES WERE TO THE SKY
COVERAGE AND HOURLY GRIDS PER OBSERVATIONS.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE STRENGTHENING WITH
HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST.
OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MUCH
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE
I-90 CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE
FL AND LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN
CATSKILLS...NRN BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY
INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE 0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. PWAT VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO.
THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED
TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING FOR ALL TAF SITES.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN NY
THIS AFTN. WHILE SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY ONLY BE FEW-SCT...MOST
SITES LOOK TO HAVE BKN CIGS AT 25 KFT THANKS TO A THIN LAYER OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THIS EVENING. W-SW WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS...BUT LOOK TO DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES...AS THE BEST
FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. SEVERAL LAYERS OF BKN CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE LOWEST LAYER AT 8-12 KFT. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL HELP PREVENT ANY
RADIATIONAL FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT.

A SFC WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
/MEMORIAL DAY/.  MOST OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO MISS THE REGION TO THE NORTH/WEST...BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT A SHOWER AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY...ESP AFTER 18Z.  CIGS
WILL GENERALLY BE BKN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241649
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1249 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE HIGH THEN
MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA FROM THE MIDDLE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HOURLY TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST.
HAVE INCREASED HIGHS 1-2 CATEGORIES AS A RESULT...CONSISTENT WITH
A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDING...A
MIX OF WARMER MET/EKD GUIDANCE...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
WOULD EXPECT NE NJ OUTSIDE OF NE NJ...AND NYC IMMEDIATELY AWAY
FROM THE S SHORE OF QUEENS/BROOKLYN TO HAVES FROM AROUND 80-LOWER
80S. SHOULD SEE MAINLY MID 70S-AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT UPPER
60S-LOWER 70S NEAR SOUTH FACING COASTLINES.

ALSO...INCREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY OVER W ZONES TO REFLECT
PASSING CIRRUS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT FORMATION AT AREA ATLANTIC BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE
PROMINENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH IN
PLACE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS LONG ISLAND. USED A BLEND OF MAV AND ECE FOR LOW
TEMPS...AGAIN SIDING WITH A RELATIVELY WARMER SOLUTION.

FOR MONDAY...THE 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES...OVERALL EXHIBITING A STEADY RISING TREND COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY. LIKEWISE...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS NEAR THE SURFACE TO
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. HOWEVER...AT THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...THE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEARLY THE SAME
AS THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS IN PLACE. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND INTO
THE EVENINGS EACH DAY THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS DEVELOP. THE AIR MASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH BUILD UP OF CAPE AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY.
IF THE HIGH AND RIDGE ARE STRONGER AND REMAIN IN PLACE...THE
INLAND AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY. FARTHER EAST IS MORE STABLE WHILE
FARTHER WEST WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE AS THAT IS WHERE WARMER AIR
WILL RESIDE SO CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHER NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC.

AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS FRIDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AND KEPT POPS AT CHANCE.

FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS
RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SW FLOW INCREASES FOR THE DURATION OF THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS MOSTLY AROUND 20KT. SEA BREEZES HAVE PASSED
THROUGH KISP/KBDR/KGON...AND WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH
KJFK...AND PROBABLY KLGA. CURRENTLY NOT FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
KEWR/KTEB/KHPN...BUT THIS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY LATE THIS AFTN.

WINDS LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET TO UNDER 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. S/SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM NW OF
NYC METRO EACH AFTERNOON. COASTAL SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AT
TIMES COULD APPROACH 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...
ESPECIALLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5 FEET
OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...PROBABLY BEGINNING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOCAL NON OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOG/POOR VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO
LATE WEEK AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG VERTICAL MIXING WILL BRING DOWN LOWER DEWPOINTS FROM THE
LOW LEVELS. AS A RESULT...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN
THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH...WILL ENHANCE
THE SPREAD AND GROWTH OF ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR COASTAL CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN
QUEENS...NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES...WHERE MORE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JM
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/MET
AVIATION...JC/PW
MARINE...MALOIT/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JM



000
FXUS61 KOKX 241649
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1249 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE HIGH THEN
MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA FROM THE MIDDLE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HOURLY TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST.
HAVE INCREASED HIGHS 1-2 CATEGORIES AS A RESULT...CONSISTENT WITH
A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDING...A
MIX OF WARMER MET/EKD GUIDANCE...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
WOULD EXPECT NE NJ OUTSIDE OF NE NJ...AND NYC IMMEDIATELY AWAY
FROM THE S SHORE OF QUEENS/BROOKLYN TO HAVES FROM AROUND 80-LOWER
80S. SHOULD SEE MAINLY MID 70S-AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT UPPER
60S-LOWER 70S NEAR SOUTH FACING COASTLINES.

ALSO...INCREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY OVER W ZONES TO REFLECT
PASSING CIRRUS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT FORMATION AT AREA ATLANTIC BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE
PROMINENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH IN
PLACE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS LONG ISLAND. USED A BLEND OF MAV AND ECE FOR LOW
TEMPS...AGAIN SIDING WITH A RELATIVELY WARMER SOLUTION.

FOR MONDAY...THE 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES...OVERALL EXHIBITING A STEADY RISING TREND COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY. LIKEWISE...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS NEAR THE SURFACE TO
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. HOWEVER...AT THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...THE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEARLY THE SAME
AS THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS IN PLACE. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND INTO
THE EVENINGS EACH DAY THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS DEVELOP. THE AIR MASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH BUILD UP OF CAPE AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY.
IF THE HIGH AND RIDGE ARE STRONGER AND REMAIN IN PLACE...THE
INLAND AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY. FARTHER EAST IS MORE STABLE WHILE
FARTHER WEST WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE AS THAT IS WHERE WARMER AIR
WILL RESIDE SO CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHER NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC.

AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS FRIDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AND KEPT POPS AT CHANCE.

FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS
RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SW FLOW INCREASES FOR THE DURATION OF THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS MOSTLY AROUND 20KT. SEA BREEZES HAVE PASSED
THROUGH KISP/KBDR/KGON...AND WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH
KJFK...AND PROBABLY KLGA. CURRENTLY NOT FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
KEWR/KTEB/KHPN...BUT THIS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY LATE THIS AFTN.

WINDS LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET TO UNDER 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. S/SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM NW OF
NYC METRO EACH AFTERNOON. COASTAL SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AT
TIMES COULD APPROACH 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...
ESPECIALLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5 FEET
OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...PROBABLY BEGINNING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOCAL NON OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOG/POOR VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO
LATE WEEK AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG VERTICAL MIXING WILL BRING DOWN LOWER DEWPOINTS FROM THE
LOW LEVELS. AS A RESULT...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN
THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH...WILL ENHANCE
THE SPREAD AND GROWTH OF ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR COASTAL CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN
QUEENS...NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES...WHERE MORE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JM
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/MET
AVIATION...JC/PW
MARINE...MALOIT/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241649
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1249 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE HIGH THEN
MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA FROM THE MIDDLE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HOURLY TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST.
HAVE INCREASED HIGHS 1-2 CATEGORIES AS A RESULT...CONSISTENT WITH
A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDING...A
MIX OF WARMER MET/EKD GUIDANCE...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
WOULD EXPECT NE NJ OUTSIDE OF NE NJ...AND NYC IMMEDIATELY AWAY
FROM THE S SHORE OF QUEENS/BROOKLYN TO HAVES FROM AROUND 80-LOWER
80S. SHOULD SEE MAINLY MID 70S-AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT UPPER
60S-LOWER 70S NEAR SOUTH FACING COASTLINES.

ALSO...INCREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY OVER W ZONES TO REFLECT
PASSING CIRRUS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT FORMATION AT AREA ATLANTIC BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE
PROMINENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH IN
PLACE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS LONG ISLAND. USED A BLEND OF MAV AND ECE FOR LOW
TEMPS...AGAIN SIDING WITH A RELATIVELY WARMER SOLUTION.

FOR MONDAY...THE 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES...OVERALL EXHIBITING A STEADY RISING TREND COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY. LIKEWISE...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS NEAR THE SURFACE TO
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. HOWEVER...AT THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...THE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEARLY THE SAME
AS THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS IN PLACE. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND INTO
THE EVENINGS EACH DAY THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS DEVELOP. THE AIR MASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH BUILD UP OF CAPE AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY.
IF THE HIGH AND RIDGE ARE STRONGER AND REMAIN IN PLACE...THE
INLAND AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY. FARTHER EAST IS MORE STABLE WHILE
FARTHER WEST WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE AS THAT IS WHERE WARMER AIR
WILL RESIDE SO CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHER NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC.

AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS FRIDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AND KEPT POPS AT CHANCE.

FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS
RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SW FLOW INCREASES FOR THE DURATION OF THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS MOSTLY AROUND 20KT. SEA BREEZES HAVE PASSED
THROUGH KISP/KBDR/KGON...AND WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH
KJFK...AND PROBABLY KLGA. CURRENTLY NOT FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
KEWR/KTEB/KHPN...BUT THIS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY LATE THIS AFTN.

WINDS LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET TO UNDER 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. S/SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM NW OF
NYC METRO EACH AFTERNOON. COASTAL SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AT
TIMES COULD APPROACH 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...
ESPECIALLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5 FEET
OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...PROBABLY BEGINNING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOCAL NON OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOG/POOR VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO
LATE WEEK AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG VERTICAL MIXING WILL BRING DOWN LOWER DEWPOINTS FROM THE
LOW LEVELS. AS A RESULT...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN
THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH...WILL ENHANCE
THE SPREAD AND GROWTH OF ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR COASTAL CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN
QUEENS...NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES...WHERE MORE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/JM
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/MET
AVIATION...JC/PW
MARINE...MALOIT/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JM



000
FXUS61 KALY 241642
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1242 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SCT-BKN AC DECK
JUST ALONG THE NORTHERN CWFA WITH FEW-THIN/SCT CI/CS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WERE RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES BUT RECENT DOWN TRENDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.  EITHER
WAY...A DELIGHTFUL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AS THE MAIN UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW WAS DEPARTING WITH RISING HEIGHTS UNDERWAY. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDING NICELY WITH MID 70S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND AROUND 70F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS LOOK IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. SO THE MAIN UPDATES WERE TO THE SKY
COVERAGE AND HOURLY GRIDS PER OBSERVATIONS.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE STRENGTHENING WITH
HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST.
OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MUCH
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE
I-90 CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE
FL AND LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN
CATSKILLS...NRN BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY
INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE 0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. PWAT VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO.
THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED
TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA...KGFL...EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT PASSES
TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT EASTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING A HOLD ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AS A PIECE ENERGY
RIDES OVER THE TOP.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...
     A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 241642
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1242 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SCT-BKN AC DECK
JUST ALONG THE NORTHERN CWFA WITH FEW-THIN/SCT CI/CS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WERE RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES BUT RECENT DOWN TRENDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.  EITHER
WAY...A DELIGHTFUL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AS THE MAIN UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW WAS DEPARTING WITH RISING HEIGHTS UNDERWAY. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDING NICELY WITH MID 70S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND AROUND 70F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS LOOK IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. SO THE MAIN UPDATES WERE TO THE SKY
COVERAGE AND HOURLY GRIDS PER OBSERVATIONS.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE STRENGTHENING WITH
HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST.
OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MUCH
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE
I-90 CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE
FL AND LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN
CATSKILLS...NRN BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY
INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE 0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. PWAT VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO.
THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED
TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA...KGFL...EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT PASSES
TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT EASTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING A HOLD ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AS A PIECE ENERGY
RIDES OVER THE TOP.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...
     A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 241543
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1143 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRODUCE A
BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
FINALLY BOOST TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A WARM FRONT
WILL THEN ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
WILL SIGNAL A CHANGE TO WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH THE MORE SUMMERY
AIRMASS SUPPORTING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK THOUGH WILL BE RAIN FREE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOW DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EXTENDING BACK
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPLY OUR REGION WITH BEAUTIFUL WEATHER
TODAY. AMPLE SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ONLY SOME HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS WARMER AIR WILL PUSH AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

UNLIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WHEN WE EXPERIENCED COOL WEATHER...
H85 TEMPS CLIMBING TO ARND 12C (WRN COUNTIES) WILL COMBINE WITH A
RISING HGT FIELD AND AMPLE SUNSHINE TO SEND OUR AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT PARTS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEG F HIGHER THAN THOSE FROM SATURDAY...AND 20 DEG
HIGHER THAN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS OF FRIDAY.

TONIGHT...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WARMER AIR PUSHING NORTH ACROSS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE THE PROCESS OF GENERATING ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED LIFT
BECOMING GREAT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS NEAR...AND NORTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARMER
AND WARMER NIGHTS...AS THE MERCURY TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL TO
AROUND 60 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WEST OF ROCHESTER...WHILE MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE MINS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. THIS WILL BE A FAR CRY FROM THE WIDESPREAD FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS FROM JUST TWO NIGHTS AGO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE PUSHING
ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THE BULK OF ANY WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT AND SHOULD THUS PRIMARILY IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY...WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD EXPERIENCE
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH. HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
/WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND WHERE THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST
AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR POURS
INTO THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE BURGEONING WARM SECTOR.
THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IMMEDIATELY NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP READINGS
CONFINED TO THE 70S.

AS WE GET INTO MONDAY EVENING...ANY LINGERING WARM FRONTAL
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THAT PARTICULAR REGION AS THE WARM FRONT FINISHES CLEARING
OUR FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...A VERY MODEST ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...AND WILL PROBABLY HELP TO TRIGGER A NEW ROUND OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. GIVEN DIMINISHING NOCTURNAL
INSTABILITY...EXPECT THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BOTH PRECIP AND THUNDER
CHANCES THEN DIMINISHING OVER TIME AND WITH EASTWARD EXTENT DURING
THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID NIGHT... WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE MID 60S IN
MOST PLACES...AND DEWPOINTS HOVERING JUST A LITTLE BELOW THESE
LEVELS.

AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL THEN PROBABLY LEAD TO A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITHOUT AN OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC-SCALE TRIGGER
PRESENT...ANY SUCH ACTIVITY MAY HAVE TO RELY MORE ON LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO GET GOING INITIALLY. THIS
WOULD TEND TO RESULT IN THE TYPICALLY-SEEN SCENARIO WHERE
CONVECTION INITIALLY FIRES TO THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE AND OTHER
REGIONS OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THEN SPREADS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE FORECAST BY
PLACING THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND LOWER CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
AREAS MORE LIKELY TO BE SHADOWED BY THE LAKES... THOUGH HAVE
REFRAINED FROM GOING LOWER THAN THAT JUST YET GIVEN THAT THIS TIME
FRAME IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT. ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD THEN TEND TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTION PROBABLY INCREASES AGAIN LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL
TROUGH...AND ITS ATTENDANT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND TRAILING MODEST
COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE BEST OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO COME
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN RENEWED DIURNAL HEATING WILL LEAD
TO GREATER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURES TO WORK WITH...AND IN TURN SHOULD LEAD TO ONE OR MORE
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ACCORDINGLY RESERVED THE HIGHEST OVERALL
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THAT PARTICULAR DAY...THOUGH HAVE ELECTED TO
KEEP THESE CONFINED TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE TIME BEING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AGAIN STRUGGLING TO FALL BELOW THE MID 60S... AND
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WHEN
THE WARMEST OVERALL TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WE GET INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LINGERING SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION... AND AS A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION IN ITS WAKE...
WITH THIS RIDGE THEN PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH LARGELY DRY AND
QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BOTH FALL BACK A LITTLE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP BACK TO THE
MORE COMFORTABLE MID AND UPPER 50S...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS RETREAT
TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALL
TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN
REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS BACK UP SOME 3-5 DEGREES OR SO FROM THURSDAY/S
READINGS. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE INCREASING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
VERY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME
BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL AGAIN BE IN PLAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WAVE-LADEN COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING IN OUR DIRECTION FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...THOUGH
THESE PACKAGES /AS IS TO BE EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT/ STILL ALSO
EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON ITS TIMING...WITH THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS EUROPEAN
COUNTERPART. WHILE I TEND TO BELIEVE THE LATTER MORE AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE VERY WAVY AND ELONGATED NATURE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
EITHER OF THESE SCENARIOS WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHICH HAS BEEN
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST BY INCREASING CHANCE POPS AND A TREND
TOWARD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOCKED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SUPPORT
SPECTACULAR FLYING WEATHER TODAY. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AN ALTO-CU DECK WILL SPREAD
ACROSS OUR REGION AND THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS

WHILE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THE LOWERING VFR CIGS
COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS NEAR AND NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND
BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL
KEEP A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE RESULT
WILL BE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS FOR BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
WITH WAVES AVERAGING 2 FEET OR LESS.

THE ONLY PROBLEM IN THE NEAR TERM WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND ON THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER WHERE FUNNELED SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN TO
15 TO 25 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED TO COVER THIS CONCERN.

THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...AND THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE
GENERALLY SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR NEARLY DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-
         024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/RSH
NEAR TERM...AR/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...AR/RSH
MARINE...AR/RSH



000
FXUS61 KBUF 241543
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1143 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRODUCE A
BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
FINALLY BOOST TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A WARM FRONT
WILL THEN ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
WILL SIGNAL A CHANGE TO WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH THE MORE SUMMERY
AIRMASS SUPPORTING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK THOUGH WILL BE RAIN FREE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOW DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EXTENDING BACK
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPLY OUR REGION WITH BEAUTIFUL WEATHER
TODAY. AMPLE SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ONLY SOME HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS WARMER AIR WILL PUSH AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

UNLIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WHEN WE EXPERIENCED COOL WEATHER...
H85 TEMPS CLIMBING TO ARND 12C (WRN COUNTIES) WILL COMBINE WITH A
RISING HGT FIELD AND AMPLE SUNSHINE TO SEND OUR AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT PARTS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEG F HIGHER THAN THOSE FROM SATURDAY...AND 20 DEG
HIGHER THAN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS OF FRIDAY.

TONIGHT...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WARMER AIR PUSHING NORTH ACROSS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE THE PROCESS OF GENERATING ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED LIFT
BECOMING GREAT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS NEAR...AND NORTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARMER
AND WARMER NIGHTS...AS THE MERCURY TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL TO
AROUND 60 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WEST OF ROCHESTER...WHILE MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE MINS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. THIS WILL BE A FAR CRY FROM THE WIDESPREAD FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS FROM JUST TWO NIGHTS AGO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE PUSHING
ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THE BULK OF ANY WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT AND SHOULD THUS PRIMARILY IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY...WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD EXPERIENCE
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH. HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
/WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND WHERE THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST
AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR POURS
INTO THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE BURGEONING WARM SECTOR.
THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IMMEDIATELY NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP READINGS
CONFINED TO THE 70S.

AS WE GET INTO MONDAY EVENING...ANY LINGERING WARM FRONTAL
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THAT PARTICULAR REGION AS THE WARM FRONT FINISHES CLEARING
OUR FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...A VERY MODEST ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...AND WILL PROBABLY HELP TO TRIGGER A NEW ROUND OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. GIVEN DIMINISHING NOCTURNAL
INSTABILITY...EXPECT THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BOTH PRECIP AND THUNDER
CHANCES THEN DIMINISHING OVER TIME AND WITH EASTWARD EXTENT DURING
THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID NIGHT... WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE MID 60S IN
MOST PLACES...AND DEWPOINTS HOVERING JUST A LITTLE BELOW THESE
LEVELS.

AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL THEN PROBABLY LEAD TO A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITHOUT AN OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC-SCALE TRIGGER
PRESENT...ANY SUCH ACTIVITY MAY HAVE TO RELY MORE ON LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO GET GOING INITIALLY. THIS
WOULD TEND TO RESULT IN THE TYPICALLY-SEEN SCENARIO WHERE
CONVECTION INITIALLY FIRES TO THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE AND OTHER
REGIONS OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THEN SPREADS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE FORECAST BY
PLACING THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND LOWER CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
AREAS MORE LIKELY TO BE SHADOWED BY THE LAKES... THOUGH HAVE
REFRAINED FROM GOING LOWER THAN THAT JUST YET GIVEN THAT THIS TIME
FRAME IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT. ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD THEN TEND TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTION PROBABLY INCREASES AGAIN LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL
TROUGH...AND ITS ATTENDANT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND TRAILING MODEST
COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE BEST OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO COME
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN RENEWED DIURNAL HEATING WILL LEAD
TO GREATER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURES TO WORK WITH...AND IN TURN SHOULD LEAD TO ONE OR MORE
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ACCORDINGLY RESERVED THE HIGHEST OVERALL
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THAT PARTICULAR DAY...THOUGH HAVE ELECTED TO
KEEP THESE CONFINED TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE TIME BEING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AGAIN STRUGGLING TO FALL BELOW THE MID 60S... AND
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WHEN
THE WARMEST OVERALL TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WE GET INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LINGERING SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION... AND AS A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION IN ITS WAKE...
WITH THIS RIDGE THEN PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH LARGELY DRY AND
QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BOTH FALL BACK A LITTLE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP BACK TO THE
MORE COMFORTABLE MID AND UPPER 50S...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS RETREAT
TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALL
TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN
REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS BACK UP SOME 3-5 DEGREES OR SO FROM THURSDAY/S
READINGS. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE INCREASING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
VERY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME
BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL AGAIN BE IN PLAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WAVE-LADEN COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING IN OUR DIRECTION FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...THOUGH
THESE PACKAGES /AS IS TO BE EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT/ STILL ALSO
EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON ITS TIMING...WITH THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS EUROPEAN
COUNTERPART. WHILE I TEND TO BELIEVE THE LATTER MORE AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE VERY WAVY AND ELONGATED NATURE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
EITHER OF THESE SCENARIOS WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHICH HAS BEEN
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST BY INCREASING CHANCE POPS AND A TREND
TOWARD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOCKED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SUPPORT
SPECTACULAR FLYING WEATHER TODAY. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AN ALTO-CU DECK WILL SPREAD
ACROSS OUR REGION AND THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS

WHILE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THE LOWERING VFR CIGS
COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS NEAR AND NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND
BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL
KEEP A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE RESULT
WILL BE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS FOR BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
WITH WAVES AVERAGING 2 FEET OR LESS.

THE ONLY PROBLEM IN THE NEAR TERM WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND ON THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER WHERE FUNNELED SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN TO
15 TO 25 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED TO COVER THIS CONCERN.

THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...AND THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE
GENERALLY SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR NEARLY DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-
         024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/RSH
NEAR TERM...AR/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...AR/RSH
MARINE...AR/RSH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 241543
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1143 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRODUCE A
BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
FINALLY BOOST TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A WARM FRONT
WILL THEN ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
WILL SIGNAL A CHANGE TO WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH THE MORE SUMMERY
AIRMASS SUPPORTING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK THOUGH WILL BE RAIN FREE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOW DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EXTENDING BACK
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPLY OUR REGION WITH BEAUTIFUL WEATHER
TODAY. AMPLE SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ONLY SOME HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS WARMER AIR WILL PUSH AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

UNLIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WHEN WE EXPERIENCED COOL WEATHER...
H85 TEMPS CLIMBING TO ARND 12C (WRN COUNTIES) WILL COMBINE WITH A
RISING HGT FIELD AND AMPLE SUNSHINE TO SEND OUR AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT PARTS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEG F HIGHER THAN THOSE FROM SATURDAY...AND 20 DEG
HIGHER THAN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS OF FRIDAY.

TONIGHT...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WARMER AIR PUSHING NORTH ACROSS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE THE PROCESS OF GENERATING ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED LIFT
BECOMING GREAT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS NEAR...AND NORTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARMER
AND WARMER NIGHTS...AS THE MERCURY TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL TO
AROUND 60 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WEST OF ROCHESTER...WHILE MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE MINS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. THIS WILL BE A FAR CRY FROM THE WIDESPREAD FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS FROM JUST TWO NIGHTS AGO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE PUSHING
ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THE BULK OF ANY WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT AND SHOULD THUS PRIMARILY IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY...WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD EXPERIENCE
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH. HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
/WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND WHERE THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST
AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR POURS
INTO THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE BURGEONING WARM SECTOR.
THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IMMEDIATELY NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP READINGS
CONFINED TO THE 70S.

AS WE GET INTO MONDAY EVENING...ANY LINGERING WARM FRONTAL
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THAT PARTICULAR REGION AS THE WARM FRONT FINISHES CLEARING
OUR FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...A VERY MODEST ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...AND WILL PROBABLY HELP TO TRIGGER A NEW ROUND OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. GIVEN DIMINISHING NOCTURNAL
INSTABILITY...EXPECT THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BOTH PRECIP AND THUNDER
CHANCES THEN DIMINISHING OVER TIME AND WITH EASTWARD EXTENT DURING
THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID NIGHT... WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE MID 60S IN
MOST PLACES...AND DEWPOINTS HOVERING JUST A LITTLE BELOW THESE
LEVELS.

AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL THEN PROBABLY LEAD TO A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITHOUT AN OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC-SCALE TRIGGER
PRESENT...ANY SUCH ACTIVITY MAY HAVE TO RELY MORE ON LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO GET GOING INITIALLY. THIS
WOULD TEND TO RESULT IN THE TYPICALLY-SEEN SCENARIO WHERE
CONVECTION INITIALLY FIRES TO THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE AND OTHER
REGIONS OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THEN SPREADS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE FORECAST BY
PLACING THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND LOWER CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
AREAS MORE LIKELY TO BE SHADOWED BY THE LAKES... THOUGH HAVE
REFRAINED FROM GOING LOWER THAN THAT JUST YET GIVEN THAT THIS TIME
FRAME IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT. ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD THEN TEND TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTION PROBABLY INCREASES AGAIN LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL
TROUGH...AND ITS ATTENDANT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND TRAILING MODEST
COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE BEST OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO COME
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN RENEWED DIURNAL HEATING WILL LEAD
TO GREATER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURES TO WORK WITH...AND IN TURN SHOULD LEAD TO ONE OR MORE
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ACCORDINGLY RESERVED THE HIGHEST OVERALL
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THAT PARTICULAR DAY...THOUGH HAVE ELECTED TO
KEEP THESE CONFINED TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE TIME BEING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AGAIN STRUGGLING TO FALL BELOW THE MID 60S... AND
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WHEN
THE WARMEST OVERALL TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WE GET INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LINGERING SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION... AND AS A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION IN ITS WAKE...
WITH THIS RIDGE THEN PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH LARGELY DRY AND
QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BOTH FALL BACK A LITTLE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP BACK TO THE
MORE COMFORTABLE MID AND UPPER 50S...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS RETREAT
TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALL
TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN
REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS BACK UP SOME 3-5 DEGREES OR SO FROM THURSDAY/S
READINGS. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE INCREASING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
VERY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME
BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL AGAIN BE IN PLAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WAVE-LADEN COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING IN OUR DIRECTION FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...THOUGH
THESE PACKAGES /AS IS TO BE EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT/ STILL ALSO
EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON ITS TIMING...WITH THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS EUROPEAN
COUNTERPART. WHILE I TEND TO BELIEVE THE LATTER MORE AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE VERY WAVY AND ELONGATED NATURE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
EITHER OF THESE SCENARIOS WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHICH HAS BEEN
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST BY INCREASING CHANCE POPS AND A TREND
TOWARD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOCKED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SUPPORT
SPECTACULAR FLYING WEATHER TODAY. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AN ALTO-CU DECK WILL SPREAD
ACROSS OUR REGION AND THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS

WHILE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THE LOWERING VFR CIGS
COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS NEAR AND NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND
BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL
KEEP A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE RESULT
WILL BE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS FOR BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
WITH WAVES AVERAGING 2 FEET OR LESS.

THE ONLY PROBLEM IN THE NEAR TERM WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND ON THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER WHERE FUNNELED SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN TO
15 TO 25 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED TO COVER THIS CONCERN.

THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...AND THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE
GENERALLY SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR NEARLY DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-
         024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/RSH
NEAR TERM...AR/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...AR/RSH
MARINE...AR/RSH



000
FXUS61 KBUF 241506
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1106 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRODUCE A
BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
FINALLY BOOST TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A WARM FRONT
WILL THEN ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
WILL SIGNAL A CHANGE TO WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH THE MORE SUMMERY
AIRMASS SUPPORTING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK THOUGH WILL BE RAIN FREE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOW DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EXTENDING BACK
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPLY OUR REGION WITH BEAUTIFUL WEATHER
TODAY. AMPLE SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ONLY SOME HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS WARMER AIR WILL PUSH AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

UNLIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WHEN WE EXPERIENCED COOL WEATHER...
H85 TEMPS CLIMBING TO ARND 12C (WRN COUNTIES) WILL COMBINE WITH A
RISING HGT FIELD AND AMPLE SUNSHINE TO SEND OUR AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT PARTS OF
THE GENESEE COUNTY VALLEY COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEG F HIGHER THAN THOSE FROM SATURDAY...AND 20 DEG
HIGHER THAN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS OF FRIDAY.

TONIGHT...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WARMER AIR PUSHING NORTH ACROSS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE THE PROCESS OF GENERATING ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED LIFT
BECOMING GREAT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS NEAR...AND NORTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARMER
AND WARMER NIGHTS...AS THE MERCURY TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL TO
AROUND 60 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WEST OF ROCHESTER...WHILE MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE MINS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. THIS WILL BE A FAR CRY FROM THE WIDESPREAD FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS FROM JUST TWO NIGHTS AGO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE PUSHING
ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THE BULK OF ANY WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT AND SHOULD THUS PRIMARILY IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY...WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD EXPERIENCE
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH. HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
/WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND WHERE THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST
AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR POURS
INTO THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE BURGEONING WARM SECTOR.
THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IMMEDIATELY NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP READINGS
CONFINED TO THE 70S.

AS WE GET INTO MONDAY EVENING...ANY LINGERING WARM FRONTAL
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THAT PARTICULAR REGION AS THE WARM FRONT FINISHES CLEARING
OUR FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...A VERY MODEST ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...AND WILL PROBABLY HELP TO TRIGGER A NEW ROUND OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. GIVEN DIMINISHING NOCTURNAL
INSTABILITY...EXPECT THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BOTH PRECIP AND THUNDER
CHANCES THEN DIMINISHING OVER TIME AND WITH EASTWARD EXTENT DURING
THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID NIGHT... WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE MID 60S IN
MOST PLACES...AND DEWPOINTS HOVERING JUST A LITTLE BELOW THESE
LEVELS.

AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL THEN PROBABLY LEAD TO A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITHOUT AN OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC-SCALE TRIGGER
PRESENT...ANY SUCH ACTIVITY MAY HAVE TO RELY MORE ON LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO GET GOING INITIALLY. THIS
WOULD TEND TO RESULT IN THE TYPICALLY-SEEN SCENARIO WHERE
CONVECTION INITIALLY FIRES TO THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE AND OTHER
REGIONS OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THEN SPREADS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE FORECAST BY
PLACING THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND LOWER CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
AREAS MORE LIKELY TO BE SHADOWED BY THE LAKES... THOUGH HAVE
REFRAINED FROM GOING LOWER THAN THAT JUST YET GIVEN THAT THIS TIME
FRAME IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT. ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD THEN TEND TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTION PROBABLY INCREASES AGAIN LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL
TROUGH...AND ITS ATTENDANT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND TRAILING MODEST
COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE BEST OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO COME
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN RENEWED DIURNAL HEATING WILL LEAD
TO GREATER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURES TO WORK WITH...AND IN TURN SHOULD LEAD TO ONE OR MORE
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ACCORDINGLY RESERVED THE HIGHEST OVERALL
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THAT PARTICULAR DAY...THOUGH HAVE ELECTED TO
KEEP THESE CONFINED TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE TIME BEING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AGAIN STRUGGLING TO FALL BELOW THE MID 60S... AND
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WHEN
THE WARMEST OVERALL TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WE GET INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LINGERING SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION... AND AS A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION IN ITS WAKE...
WITH THIS RIDGE THEN PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH LARGELY DRY AND
QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BOTH FALL BACK A LITTLE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP BACK TO THE
MORE COMFORTABLE MID AND UPPER 50S...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS RETREAT
TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALL
TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN
REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS BACK UP SOME 3-5 DEGREES OR SO FROM THURSDAY/S
READINGS. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE INCREASING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
VERY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME
BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL AGAIN BE IN PLAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WAVE-LADEN COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING IN OUR DIRECTION FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...THOUGH
THESE PACKAGES /AS IS TO BE EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT/ STILL ALSO
EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON ITS TIMING...WITH THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS EUROPEAN
COUNTERPART. WHILE I TEND TO BELIEVE THE LATTER MORE AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE VERY WAVY AND ELONGATED NATURE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
EITHER OF THESE SCENARIOS WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHICH HAS BEEN
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST BY INCREASING CHANCE POPS AND A TREND
TOWARD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOCKED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SUPPORT
SPECTACULAR FLYING WEATHER TODAY. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AN ALTO-CU DECK WILL SPREAD
ACROSS OUR REGION AND THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS

WHILE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THE LOWERING VFR CIGS
COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS NEAR AND NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND
BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL
KEEP A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE RESULT
WILL BE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS FOR BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
WITH WAVES AVERAGING 2 FEET OR LESS.

THE ONLY PROBLEM IN THE NEAR TERM WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND ON THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER WHERE FUNNELED SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN TO
15 TO 25 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED TO COVER THIS CONCERN.

THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...AND THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE
GENERALLY SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR NEARLY DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-
         024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/RSH
NEAR TERM...AR/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...AR/RSH
MARINE...AR/RSH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 241506
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1106 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRODUCE A
BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
FINALLY BOOST TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A WARM FRONT
WILL THEN ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
WILL SIGNAL A CHANGE TO WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH THE MORE SUMMERY
AIRMASS SUPPORTING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK THOUGH WILL BE RAIN FREE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOW DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EXTENDING BACK
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPLY OUR REGION WITH BEAUTIFUL WEATHER
TODAY. AMPLE SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ONLY SOME HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS WARMER AIR WILL PUSH AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

UNLIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WHEN WE EXPERIENCED COOL WEATHER...
H85 TEMPS CLIMBING TO ARND 12C (WRN COUNTIES) WILL COMBINE WITH A
RISING HGT FIELD AND AMPLE SUNSHINE TO SEND OUR AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT PARTS OF
THE GENESEE COUNTY VALLEY COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEG F HIGHER THAN THOSE FROM SATURDAY...AND 20 DEG
HIGHER THAN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS OF FRIDAY.

TONIGHT...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WARMER AIR PUSHING NORTH ACROSS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE THE PROCESS OF GENERATING ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED LIFT
BECOMING GREAT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS NEAR...AND NORTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARMER
AND WARMER NIGHTS...AS THE MERCURY TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL TO
AROUND 60 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WEST OF ROCHESTER...WHILE MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE MINS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. THIS WILL BE A FAR CRY FROM THE WIDESPREAD FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS FROM JUST TWO NIGHTS AGO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE PUSHING
ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THE BULK OF ANY WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT AND SHOULD THUS PRIMARILY IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY...WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD EXPERIENCE
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH. HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
/WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND WHERE THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST
AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR POURS
INTO THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE BURGEONING WARM SECTOR.
THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IMMEDIATELY NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP READINGS
CONFINED TO THE 70S.

AS WE GET INTO MONDAY EVENING...ANY LINGERING WARM FRONTAL
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THAT PARTICULAR REGION AS THE WARM FRONT FINISHES CLEARING
OUR FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...A VERY MODEST ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...AND WILL PROBABLY HELP TO TRIGGER A NEW ROUND OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. GIVEN DIMINISHING NOCTURNAL
INSTABILITY...EXPECT THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BOTH PRECIP AND THUNDER
CHANCES THEN DIMINISHING OVER TIME AND WITH EASTWARD EXTENT DURING
THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID NIGHT... WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE MID 60S IN
MOST PLACES...AND DEWPOINTS HOVERING JUST A LITTLE BELOW THESE
LEVELS.

AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL THEN PROBABLY LEAD TO A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITHOUT AN OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC-SCALE TRIGGER
PRESENT...ANY SUCH ACTIVITY MAY HAVE TO RELY MORE ON LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO GET GOING INITIALLY. THIS
WOULD TEND TO RESULT IN THE TYPICALLY-SEEN SCENARIO WHERE
CONVECTION INITIALLY FIRES TO THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE AND OTHER
REGIONS OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THEN SPREADS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE FORECAST BY
PLACING THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND LOWER CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
AREAS MORE LIKELY TO BE SHADOWED BY THE LAKES... THOUGH HAVE
REFRAINED FROM GOING LOWER THAN THAT JUST YET GIVEN THAT THIS TIME
FRAME IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT. ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD THEN TEND TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTION PROBABLY INCREASES AGAIN LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL
TROUGH...AND ITS ATTENDANT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND TRAILING MODEST
COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE BEST OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO COME
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN RENEWED DIURNAL HEATING WILL LEAD
TO GREATER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURES TO WORK WITH...AND IN TURN SHOULD LEAD TO ONE OR MORE
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ACCORDINGLY RESERVED THE HIGHEST OVERALL
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THAT PARTICULAR DAY...THOUGH HAVE ELECTED TO
KEEP THESE CONFINED TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE TIME BEING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AGAIN STRUGGLING TO FALL BELOW THE MID 60S... AND
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WHEN
THE WARMEST OVERALL TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WE GET INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LINGERING SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION... AND AS A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION IN ITS WAKE...
WITH THIS RIDGE THEN PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH LARGELY DRY AND
QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BOTH FALL BACK A LITTLE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP BACK TO THE
MORE COMFORTABLE MID AND UPPER 50S...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS RETREAT
TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALL
TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN
REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS BACK UP SOME 3-5 DEGREES OR SO FROM THURSDAY/S
READINGS. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE INCREASING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
VERY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME
BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL AGAIN BE IN PLAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WAVE-LADEN COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING IN OUR DIRECTION FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...THOUGH
THESE PACKAGES /AS IS TO BE EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT/ STILL ALSO
EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON ITS TIMING...WITH THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS EUROPEAN
COUNTERPART. WHILE I TEND TO BELIEVE THE LATTER MORE AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE VERY WAVY AND ELONGATED NATURE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
EITHER OF THESE SCENARIOS WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHICH HAS BEEN
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST BY INCREASING CHANCE POPS AND A TREND
TOWARD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOCKED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SUPPORT
SPECTACULAR FLYING WEATHER TODAY. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AN ALTO-CU DECK WILL SPREAD
ACROSS OUR REGION AND THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS

WHILE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THE LOWERING VFR CIGS
COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS NEAR AND NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE DOCKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND
BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL
KEEP A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE RESULT
WILL BE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS FOR BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
WITH WAVES AVERAGING 2 FEET OR LESS.

THE ONLY PROBLEM IN THE NEAR TERM WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND ON THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER WHERE FUNNELED SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN TO
15 TO 25 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED TO COVER THIS CONCERN.

THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...AND THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE
GENERALLY SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR NEARLY DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-
         024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/RSH
NEAR TERM...AR/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...AR/RSH
MARINE...AR/RSH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 241500
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A
STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WARM SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1050 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST
WITH LATEST UPDATE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAISED POPS A BIT TO
REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS. LATEST RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. BUT WITH LOW LEVELS STILL QUITE DRY...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES.
ISOLATED STORM STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN VERMONT...AS SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INDICATED. MAX
TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
TODAY BEGINS OUR TRANSITIONAL PERIOD BACK INTO SUMMERLIKE WEATHER
AS PRONOUNCED HEIGHT AND THICKNESS RISES CONTINUE UNDER DEEPENING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL TREND GUSTY BY AFTERNOON.
USING A MODEL BLEND OF 18-21Z 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST MAX
READINGS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST SPOTS,
PERHAPS TOUCHING THE 80F MARK IN WARMER LOCALES OF THE CHAMPLAIN
AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEYS WHERE DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY BOOST
READINGS A DEGREE OR TWO. WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, A
WEAK AND DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED WSW TO ESE ALONG/JUST
NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER MAY STILL SPARK A WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-
BASED SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT BASED OFF SFC- BASED CAPES TO 500 J/KG AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DEEP AND DRY (TO 700 MB) SO IF AN ISOLATED
STORM DOES FORM LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH OR SO WILL BE
POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY CONVECTIVE CORES AS PARCEL DESCENT WOULD BE
ACCELERATING DUE TO EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES BENEATH THE CLOUD BASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION FAR
NORTHEAST WILL THEN END BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER, LEAVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
WILL THEN TREND GRADUALLY CLOUDY LATER AT NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A
STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES. A
BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING, THOUGH MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST.

BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN NY COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AND HAVE OFFERED HIGHEST POPS/STEADIER SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND NOMINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN A MORE LIMITED FASHION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD ACHIEVE
LATE DAY VALUES IN UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH
AND EAST OF THESE AREAS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH ANY STEADIER MORNING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS EXITING
OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH TIME AND SKIES TRENDING PARTLY
SUNNY IN MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ON BOARD SHOWING
REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A
MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING HOWEVER, SO
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DISORGANZIED WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY REMAINING
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH, WITH PERHAPS
OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON ON TAP AS AFTERNOON 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE +20 TO +23C RANGE PER LATEST
NAM/GFS/EURO OUTPUT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST SPOTS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW WARMER LOCALES IN THE BROADER
VALLEYS NEARING THE 90F MARK.  DEFINITELY A TIME TO CONSIDER DUSTING
OFF THE AIR CONDITIONERS AFTER A 9-MONTH HIATUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF FA FOR WARM/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA
AS WELL AS OPPORTUNITIES FOR MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO RIDGE
AROUND THE PERIPERHY OF THE RIDGE. IT WILL BE MOIST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER TUES
NGT/WED BEFORE A NORTHERN WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WED NGT
THEN AGAIN PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES FRI NGT/SAT
BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT.

IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY AND ALTHOUGH NOT A WIDESPREAD NEEDED SOAKING
RAIN...WARM MOIST FLOW WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND A PERSISTENT
BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA SHOULD GIVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF
BENEFICIAL RAINS...ALBEIT WHEN IT DOES RAIN IT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE WARM WITH H925 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. HOW HIGH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER.

THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME CLOSER IN LINE ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS
ALTHOUGH PARALLEL UPPER FLOW ALWAYS HAS A TRICK UP ITS SLEEVE. RIGHT
NOW...A WEAK DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING WARM FRONT TUE NGT/WED WILL BRING
ABOUT CHANCE SHOWERS...PERHAPS THUNDR TUE NGT WITH NORTHERN STREAM
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING AN EVENTUAL WASHED OUT FRONT ACROSS FA
WED FOR BETTER CHANCE OF TSTRMS. LINGERING BOUNDARY ON THU MAY BRING
ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTRMS THU THEN LOOKS DRY FOR FRI
AHEAD OF MORE SIGNFICANT NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND FRONT ON
SAT. BETTER DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY ON SAT MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS TOWARD 12Z MON.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY - THURSDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 356 AM SUNDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE
FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW TODAY AS THEY WERE ON
SATURDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 20 TO 35 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO
30 MPH AT TIMES. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START ON SUNDAY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME
DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
FIRE WEATHER...JMG/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241500
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A
STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WARM SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1050 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST
WITH LATEST UPDATE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAISED POPS A BIT TO
REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS. LATEST RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. BUT WITH LOW LEVELS STILL QUITE DRY...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES.
ISOLATED STORM STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN VERMONT...AS SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INDICATED. MAX
TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
TODAY BEGINS OUR TRANSITIONAL PERIOD BACK INTO SUMMERLIKE WEATHER
AS PRONOUNCED HEIGHT AND THICKNESS RISES CONTINUE UNDER DEEPENING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL TREND GUSTY BY AFTERNOON.
USING A MODEL BLEND OF 18-21Z 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST MAX
READINGS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST SPOTS,
PERHAPS TOUCHING THE 80F MARK IN WARMER LOCALES OF THE CHAMPLAIN
AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEYS WHERE DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY BOOST
READINGS A DEGREE OR TWO. WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, A
WEAK AND DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED WSW TO ESE ALONG/JUST
NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER MAY STILL SPARK A WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-
BASED SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT BASED OFF SFC- BASED CAPES TO 500 J/KG AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DEEP AND DRY (TO 700 MB) SO IF AN ISOLATED
STORM DOES FORM LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH OR SO WILL BE
POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY CONVECTIVE CORES AS PARCEL DESCENT WOULD BE
ACCELERATING DUE TO EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES BENEATH THE CLOUD BASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION FAR
NORTHEAST WILL THEN END BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER, LEAVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
WILL THEN TREND GRADUALLY CLOUDY LATER AT NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A
STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES. A
BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING, THOUGH MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST.

BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN NY COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AND HAVE OFFERED HIGHEST POPS/STEADIER SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND NOMINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN A MORE LIMITED FASHION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD ACHIEVE
LATE DAY VALUES IN UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH
AND EAST OF THESE AREAS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH ANY STEADIER MORNING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS EXITING
OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH TIME AND SKIES TRENDING PARTLY
SUNNY IN MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ON BOARD SHOWING
REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A
MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING HOWEVER, SO
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DISORGANZIED WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY REMAINING
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH, WITH PERHAPS
OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON ON TAP AS AFTERNOON 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE +20 TO +23C RANGE PER LATEST
NAM/GFS/EURO OUTPUT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST SPOTS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW WARMER LOCALES IN THE BROADER
VALLEYS NEARING THE 90F MARK.  DEFINITELY A TIME TO CONSIDER DUSTING
OFF THE AIR CONDITIONERS AFTER A 9-MONTH HIATUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF FA FOR WARM/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA
AS WELL AS OPPORTUNITIES FOR MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO RIDGE
AROUND THE PERIPERHY OF THE RIDGE. IT WILL BE MOIST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER TUES
NGT/WED BEFORE A NORTHERN WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WED NGT
THEN AGAIN PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES FRI NGT/SAT
BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT.

IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY AND ALTHOUGH NOT A WIDESPREAD NEEDED SOAKING
RAIN...WARM MOIST FLOW WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND A PERSISTENT
BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA SHOULD GIVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF
BENEFICIAL RAINS...ALBEIT WHEN IT DOES RAIN IT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE WARM WITH H925 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. HOW HIGH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER.

THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME CLOSER IN LINE ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS
ALTHOUGH PARALLEL UPPER FLOW ALWAYS HAS A TRICK UP ITS SLEEVE. RIGHT
NOW...A WEAK DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING WARM FRONT TUE NGT/WED WILL BRING
ABOUT CHANCE SHOWERS...PERHAPS THUNDR TUE NGT WITH NORTHERN STREAM
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING AN EVENTUAL WASHED OUT FRONT ACROSS FA
WED FOR BETTER CHANCE OF TSTRMS. LINGERING BOUNDARY ON THU MAY BRING
ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTRMS THU THEN LOOKS DRY FOR FRI
AHEAD OF MORE SIGNFICANT NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND FRONT ON
SAT. BETTER DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY ON SAT MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS TOWARD 12Z MON.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY - THURSDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 356 AM SUNDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE
FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW TODAY AS THEY WERE ON
SATURDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 20 TO 35 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO
30 MPH AT TIMES. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START ON SUNDAY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME
DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
FIRE WEATHER...JMG/RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 241500
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A
STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WARM SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1050 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST
WITH LATEST UPDATE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAISED POPS A BIT TO
REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS. LATEST RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. BUT WITH LOW LEVELS STILL QUITE DRY...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES.
ISOLATED STORM STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN VERMONT...AS SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INDICATED. MAX
TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
TODAY BEGINS OUR TRANSITIONAL PERIOD BACK INTO SUMMERLIKE WEATHER
AS PRONOUNCED HEIGHT AND THICKNESS RISES CONTINUE UNDER DEEPENING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL TREND GUSTY BY AFTERNOON.
USING A MODEL BLEND OF 18-21Z 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST MAX
READINGS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST SPOTS,
PERHAPS TOUCHING THE 80F MARK IN WARMER LOCALES OF THE CHAMPLAIN
AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEYS WHERE DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY BOOST
READINGS A DEGREE OR TWO. WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, A
WEAK AND DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED WSW TO ESE ALONG/JUST
NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER MAY STILL SPARK A WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-
BASED SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT BASED OFF SFC- BASED CAPES TO 500 J/KG AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DEEP AND DRY (TO 700 MB) SO IF AN ISOLATED
STORM DOES FORM LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH OR SO WILL BE
POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY CONVECTIVE CORES AS PARCEL DESCENT WOULD BE
ACCELERATING DUE TO EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES BENEATH THE CLOUD BASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION FAR
NORTHEAST WILL THEN END BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER, LEAVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
WILL THEN TREND GRADUALLY CLOUDY LATER AT NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A
STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES. A
BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING, THOUGH MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST.

BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN NY COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AND HAVE OFFERED HIGHEST POPS/STEADIER SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND NOMINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN A MORE LIMITED FASHION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD ACHIEVE
LATE DAY VALUES IN UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH
AND EAST OF THESE AREAS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH ANY STEADIER MORNING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS EXITING
OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH TIME AND SKIES TRENDING PARTLY
SUNNY IN MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ON BOARD SHOWING
REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A
MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING HOWEVER, SO
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DISORGANZIED WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY REMAINING
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH, WITH PERHAPS
OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON ON TAP AS AFTERNOON 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE +20 TO +23C RANGE PER LATEST
NAM/GFS/EURO OUTPUT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST SPOTS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW WARMER LOCALES IN THE BROADER
VALLEYS NEARING THE 90F MARK.  DEFINITELY A TIME TO CONSIDER DUSTING
OFF THE AIR CONDITIONERS AFTER A 9-MONTH HIATUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF FA FOR WARM/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA
AS WELL AS OPPORTUNITIES FOR MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO RIDGE
AROUND THE PERIPERHY OF THE RIDGE. IT WILL BE MOIST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER TUES
NGT/WED BEFORE A NORTHERN WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WED NGT
THEN AGAIN PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES FRI NGT/SAT
BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT.

IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY AND ALTHOUGH NOT A WIDESPREAD NEEDED SOAKING
RAIN...WARM MOIST FLOW WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND A PERSISTENT
BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA SHOULD GIVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF
BENEFICIAL RAINS...ALBEIT WHEN IT DOES RAIN IT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE WARM WITH H925 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. HOW HIGH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER.

THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME CLOSER IN LINE ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS
ALTHOUGH PARALLEL UPPER FLOW ALWAYS HAS A TRICK UP ITS SLEEVE. RIGHT
NOW...A WEAK DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING WARM FRONT TUE NGT/WED WILL BRING
ABOUT CHANCE SHOWERS...PERHAPS THUNDR TUE NGT WITH NORTHERN STREAM
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING AN EVENTUAL WASHED OUT FRONT ACROSS FA
WED FOR BETTER CHANCE OF TSTRMS. LINGERING BOUNDARY ON THU MAY BRING
ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTRMS THU THEN LOOKS DRY FOR FRI
AHEAD OF MORE SIGNFICANT NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND FRONT ON
SAT. BETTER DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY ON SAT MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS TOWARD 12Z MON.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY - THURSDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 356 AM SUNDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE
FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW TODAY AS THEY WERE ON
SATURDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 20 TO 35 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO
30 MPH AT TIMES. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START ON SUNDAY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME
DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
FIRE WEATHER...JMG/RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 241500
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A
STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WARM SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1050 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST
WITH LATEST UPDATE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAISED POPS A BIT TO
REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS. LATEST RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. BUT WITH LOW LEVELS STILL QUITE DRY...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES.
ISOLATED STORM STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN VERMONT...AS SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INDICATED. MAX
TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
TODAY BEGINS OUR TRANSITIONAL PERIOD BACK INTO SUMMERLIKE WEATHER
AS PRONOUNCED HEIGHT AND THICKNESS RISES CONTINUE UNDER DEEPENING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL TREND GUSTY BY AFTERNOON.
USING A MODEL BLEND OF 18-21Z 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST MAX
READINGS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST SPOTS,
PERHAPS TOUCHING THE 80F MARK IN WARMER LOCALES OF THE CHAMPLAIN
AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEYS WHERE DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY BOOST
READINGS A DEGREE OR TWO. WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, A
WEAK AND DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED WSW TO ESE ALONG/JUST
NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER MAY STILL SPARK A WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-
BASED SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT BASED OFF SFC- BASED CAPES TO 500 J/KG AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DEEP AND DRY (TO 700 MB) SO IF AN ISOLATED
STORM DOES FORM LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH OR SO WILL BE
POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY CONVECTIVE CORES AS PARCEL DESCENT WOULD BE
ACCELERATING DUE TO EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES BENEATH THE CLOUD BASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION FAR
NORTHEAST WILL THEN END BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER, LEAVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
WILL THEN TREND GRADUALLY CLOUDY LATER AT NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A
STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES. A
BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING, THOUGH MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST.

BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN NY COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AND HAVE OFFERED HIGHEST POPS/STEADIER SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND NOMINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN A MORE LIMITED FASHION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD ACHIEVE
LATE DAY VALUES IN UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH
AND EAST OF THESE AREAS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH ANY STEADIER MORNING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS EXITING
OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH TIME AND SKIES TRENDING PARTLY
SUNNY IN MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ON BOARD SHOWING
REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A
MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING HOWEVER, SO
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DISORGANZIED WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY REMAINING
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH, WITH PERHAPS
OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON ON TAP AS AFTERNOON 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE +20 TO +23C RANGE PER LATEST
NAM/GFS/EURO OUTPUT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST SPOTS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW WARMER LOCALES IN THE BROADER
VALLEYS NEARING THE 90F MARK.  DEFINITELY A TIME TO CONSIDER DUSTING
OFF THE AIR CONDITIONERS AFTER A 9-MONTH HIATUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF FA FOR WARM/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA
AS WELL AS OPPORTUNITIES FOR MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO RIDGE
AROUND THE PERIPERHY OF THE RIDGE. IT WILL BE MOIST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER TUES
NGT/WED BEFORE A NORTHERN WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WED NGT
THEN AGAIN PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES FRI NGT/SAT
BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT.

IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY AND ALTHOUGH NOT A WIDESPREAD NEEDED SOAKING
RAIN...WARM MOIST FLOW WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND A PERSISTENT
BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA SHOULD GIVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF
BENEFICIAL RAINS...ALBEIT WHEN IT DOES RAIN IT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE WARM WITH H925 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. HOW HIGH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER.

THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME CLOSER IN LINE ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS
ALTHOUGH PARALLEL UPPER FLOW ALWAYS HAS A TRICK UP ITS SLEEVE. RIGHT
NOW...A WEAK DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING WARM FRONT TUE NGT/WED WILL BRING
ABOUT CHANCE SHOWERS...PERHAPS THUNDR TUE NGT WITH NORTHERN STREAM
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING AN EVENTUAL WASHED OUT FRONT ACROSS FA
WED FOR BETTER CHANCE OF TSTRMS. LINGERING BOUNDARY ON THU MAY BRING
ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTRMS THU THEN LOOKS DRY FOR FRI
AHEAD OF MORE SIGNFICANT NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND FRONT ON
SAT. BETTER DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY ON SAT MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS TOWARD 12Z MON.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY - THURSDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 356 AM SUNDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE
FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW TODAY AS THEY WERE ON
SATURDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 20 TO 35 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO
30 MPH AT TIMES. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START ON SUNDAY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME
DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
FIRE WEATHER...JMG/RJS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241441
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1041 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE HIGH THEN
MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA FROM THE MIDDLE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

ALOFT...THE JET STREAM WILL BE PUSHING NORTH DURING THE
DAY WITH AN INCOMING LONGWAVE RIDGE FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGING
WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...KEEPING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN AND INCREASE WITH
ADIABATIC MIXING UP TO 900 TO 875 HPA. GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO STRONGER
SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

THE 850 MB TEMPS HAVE ALREADY BEEN INCREASING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS TREND THROUGH THE DAY. THE MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR
REMARKABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. USED A
MET/EKD BLEND OF TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WHICH VERIFIED PRETTY WELL THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS.

FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE
PROMINENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH IN
PLACE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS LONG ISLAND. USED A BLEND OF MAV AND ECE FOR LOW
TEMPS...AGAIN SIDING WITH A RELATIVELY WARMER SOLUTION.

FOR MONDAY...THE 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES...OVERALL EXHIBITING A STEADY RISING TREND COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY. LIKEWISE...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS NEAR THE SURFACE TO
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. HOWEVER...AT THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...THE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEARLY THE SAME
AS THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS IN PLACE. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND INTO
THE EVENINGS EACH DAY THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS DEVELOP. THE AIR MASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH BUILD UP OF CAPE AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY.
IF THE HIGH AND RIDGE ARE STRONGER AND REMAIN IN PLACE...THE
INLAND AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY. FARTHER EAST IS MORE STABLE WHILE
FARTHER WEST WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE AS THAT IS WHERE WARMER AIR
WILL RESIDE SO CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHER NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC.

AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS FRIDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AND KEPT POPS AT CHANCE.

FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS
RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SW FLOW INCREASES FOR THE DURATION OF THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS MOSTLY AROUND 20KT. SEA BREEZES HAVE PASSED
THROUGH KISP/KBDR/KGON...AND WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH
KJFK...AND PROBABLY KLGA. CURRENTLY NOT FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
KEWR/KTEB/KHPN...BUT THIS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY LATE THIS AFTN.

WINDS LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET TO UNDER 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. S/SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM NW OF
NYC METRO EACH AFTERNOON. COASTAL SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AT
TIMES COULD APPROACH 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...
ESPECIALLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5 FEET
OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...PROBABLY BEGINNING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOCAL NON OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOG/POOR VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO
LATE WEEK AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WILL HELP LOWER
DEWPOINTS WITH VERTICAL MIXING. AS A RESULT...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR 25 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...SO THESE CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE THE SPREAD AND GROWTH OF
ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR COASTAL CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN
QUEENS...NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES...WHERE MORE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SO LOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE AS DRY HERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/MET
AVIATION...JC/PW
MARINE...MALOIT/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JM



000
FXUS61 KOKX 241441
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1041 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE HIGH THEN
MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA FROM THE MIDDLE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

ALOFT...THE JET STREAM WILL BE PUSHING NORTH DURING THE
DAY WITH AN INCOMING LONGWAVE RIDGE FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGING
WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...KEEPING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN AND INCREASE WITH
ADIABATIC MIXING UP TO 900 TO 875 HPA. GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO STRONGER
SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

THE 850 MB TEMPS HAVE ALREADY BEEN INCREASING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS TREND THROUGH THE DAY. THE MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR
REMARKABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. USED A
MET/EKD BLEND OF TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WHICH VERIFIED PRETTY WELL THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS.

FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE
PROMINENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH IN
PLACE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS LONG ISLAND. USED A BLEND OF MAV AND ECE FOR LOW
TEMPS...AGAIN SIDING WITH A RELATIVELY WARMER SOLUTION.

FOR MONDAY...THE 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES...OVERALL EXHIBITING A STEADY RISING TREND COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY. LIKEWISE...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS NEAR THE SURFACE TO
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. HOWEVER...AT THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...THE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEARLY THE SAME
AS THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS IN PLACE. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND INTO
THE EVENINGS EACH DAY THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS DEVELOP. THE AIR MASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH BUILD UP OF CAPE AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY.
IF THE HIGH AND RIDGE ARE STRONGER AND REMAIN IN PLACE...THE
INLAND AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY. FARTHER EAST IS MORE STABLE WHILE
FARTHER WEST WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE AS THAT IS WHERE WARMER AIR
WILL RESIDE SO CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHER NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC.

AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS FRIDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AND KEPT POPS AT CHANCE.

FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS
RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SW FLOW INCREASES FOR THE DURATION OF THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS MOSTLY AROUND 20KT. SEA BREEZES HAVE PASSED
THROUGH KISP/KBDR/KGON...AND WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH
KJFK...AND PROBABLY KLGA. CURRENTLY NOT FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
KEWR/KTEB/KHPN...BUT THIS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY LATE THIS AFTN.

WINDS LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET TO UNDER 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. S/SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM NW OF
NYC METRO EACH AFTERNOON. COASTAL SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AT
TIMES COULD APPROACH 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...
ESPECIALLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5 FEET
OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...PROBABLY BEGINNING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOCAL NON OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOG/POOR VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO
LATE WEEK AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WILL HELP LOWER
DEWPOINTS WITH VERTICAL MIXING. AS A RESULT...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR 25 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...SO THESE CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE THE SPREAD AND GROWTH OF
ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR COASTAL CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN
QUEENS...NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES...WHERE MORE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SO LOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE AS DRY HERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/MET
AVIATION...JC/PW
MARINE...MALOIT/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JM



000
FXUS61 KOKX 241441
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1041 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE HIGH THEN
MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA FROM THE MIDDLE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

ALOFT...THE JET STREAM WILL BE PUSHING NORTH DURING THE
DAY WITH AN INCOMING LONGWAVE RIDGE FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGING
WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...KEEPING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN AND INCREASE WITH
ADIABATIC MIXING UP TO 900 TO 875 HPA. GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO STRONGER
SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

THE 850 MB TEMPS HAVE ALREADY BEEN INCREASING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS TREND THROUGH THE DAY. THE MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR
REMARKABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. USED A
MET/EKD BLEND OF TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WHICH VERIFIED PRETTY WELL THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS.

FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE
PROMINENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH IN
PLACE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS LONG ISLAND. USED A BLEND OF MAV AND ECE FOR LOW
TEMPS...AGAIN SIDING WITH A RELATIVELY WARMER SOLUTION.

FOR MONDAY...THE 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES...OVERALL EXHIBITING A STEADY RISING TREND COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY. LIKEWISE...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS NEAR THE SURFACE TO
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. HOWEVER...AT THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...THE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEARLY THE SAME
AS THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS IN PLACE. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND INTO
THE EVENINGS EACH DAY THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS DEVELOP. THE AIR MASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH BUILD UP OF CAPE AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY.
IF THE HIGH AND RIDGE ARE STRONGER AND REMAIN IN PLACE...THE
INLAND AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY. FARTHER EAST IS MORE STABLE WHILE
FARTHER WEST WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE AS THAT IS WHERE WARMER AIR
WILL RESIDE SO CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHER NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC.

AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS FRIDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AND KEPT POPS AT CHANCE.

FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS
RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SW FLOW INCREASES FOR THE DURATION OF THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS MOSTLY AROUND 20KT. SEA BREEZES HAVE PASSED
THROUGH KISP/KBDR/KGON...AND WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH
KJFK...AND PROBABLY KLGA. CURRENTLY NOT FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
KEWR/KTEB/KHPN...BUT THIS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY LATE THIS AFTN.

WINDS LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET TO UNDER 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. S/SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM NW OF
NYC METRO EACH AFTERNOON. COASTAL SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AT
TIMES COULD APPROACH 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...
ESPECIALLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5 FEET
OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...PROBABLY BEGINNING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOCAL NON OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOG/POOR VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO
LATE WEEK AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WILL HELP LOWER
DEWPOINTS WITH VERTICAL MIXING. AS A RESULT...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR 25 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...SO THESE CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE THE SPREAD AND GROWTH OF
ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR COASTAL CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN
QUEENS...NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES...WHERE MORE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SO LOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE AS DRY HERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/MET
AVIATION...JC/PW
MARINE...MALOIT/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241441
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1041 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE HIGH THEN
MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA FROM THE MIDDLE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

ALOFT...THE JET STREAM WILL BE PUSHING NORTH DURING THE
DAY WITH AN INCOMING LONGWAVE RIDGE FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGING
WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...KEEPING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN AND INCREASE WITH
ADIABATIC MIXING UP TO 900 TO 875 HPA. GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO STRONGER
SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

THE 850 MB TEMPS HAVE ALREADY BEEN INCREASING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS TREND THROUGH THE DAY. THE MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR
REMARKABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. USED A
MET/EKD BLEND OF TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WHICH VERIFIED PRETTY WELL THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS.

FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE
PROMINENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH IN
PLACE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS LONG ISLAND. USED A BLEND OF MAV AND ECE FOR LOW
TEMPS...AGAIN SIDING WITH A RELATIVELY WARMER SOLUTION.

FOR MONDAY...THE 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES...OVERALL EXHIBITING A STEADY RISING TREND COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY. LIKEWISE...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS NEAR THE SURFACE TO
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. HOWEVER...AT THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...THE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEARLY THE SAME
AS THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS IN PLACE. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND INTO
THE EVENINGS EACH DAY THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS DEVELOP. THE AIR MASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH BUILD UP OF CAPE AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY.
IF THE HIGH AND RIDGE ARE STRONGER AND REMAIN IN PLACE...THE
INLAND AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY. FARTHER EAST IS MORE STABLE WHILE
FARTHER WEST WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE AS THAT IS WHERE WARMER AIR
WILL RESIDE SO CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHER NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC.

AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS FRIDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AND KEPT POPS AT CHANCE.

FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS
RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SW FLOW INCREASES FOR THE DURATION OF THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS MOSTLY AROUND 20KT. SEA BREEZES HAVE PASSED
THROUGH KISP/KBDR/KGON...AND WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH
KJFK...AND PROBABLY KLGA. CURRENTLY NOT FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
KEWR/KTEB/KHPN...BUT THIS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY LATE THIS AFTN.

WINDS LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET TO UNDER 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. S/SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM NW OF
NYC METRO EACH AFTERNOON. COASTAL SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AT
TIMES COULD APPROACH 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...
ESPECIALLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5 FEET
OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...PROBABLY BEGINNING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOCAL NON OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOG/POOR VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO
LATE WEEK AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WILL HELP LOWER
DEWPOINTS WITH VERTICAL MIXING. AS A RESULT...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR 25 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...SO THESE CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE THE SPREAD AND GROWTH OF
ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR COASTAL CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN
QUEENS...NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES...WHERE MORE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SO LOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE AS DRY HERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/MET
AVIATION...JC/PW
MARINE...MALOIT/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JM




000
FXUS61 KALY 241415
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW
CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE ARE GRAZING INTO OUR PORTIONS OF THE SRN
ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE SKIES TO THE SOUTH ARE MAINLY CLEAR WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE LATEST 12Z NAM AND 3KM
HRRR SHOW A FEW RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
SLIDES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN
NORTH OF OUR CWA ACROSS THE FAR NORTH COUNTRY AND INTO NORTHERN
VT. AS A RESULT...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY OVER OUR AREA
TODAY...WITH JUST A FEW PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING FROM
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE STRENGTHENING WITH
HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST.
OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MUCH
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE
I-90 CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE
FL AND LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN
CATSKILLS...NRN BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY
INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE 0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. PWAT VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO.
THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED
TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA...KGFL...EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT PASSES
TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT EASTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING A HOLD ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AS A PIECE ENERGY
RIDES OVER THE TOP.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...
     A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 241415
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW
CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE ARE GRAZING INTO OUR PORTIONS OF THE SRN
ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE SKIES TO THE SOUTH ARE MAINLY CLEAR WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE LATEST 12Z NAM AND 3KM
HRRR SHOW A FEW RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
SLIDES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN
NORTH OF OUR CWA ACROSS THE FAR NORTH COUNTRY AND INTO NORTHERN
VT. AS A RESULT...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY OVER OUR AREA
TODAY...WITH JUST A FEW PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING FROM
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE STRENGTHENING WITH
HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST.
OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MUCH
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE
I-90 CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE
FL AND LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN
CATSKILLS...NRN BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY
INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE 0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. PWAT VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO.
THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED
TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA...KGFL...EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT PASSES
TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT EASTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING A HOLD ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AS A PIECE ENERGY
RIDES OVER THE TOP.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...
     A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241139
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
739 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL REGIONAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WARM SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD
INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 726 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO TRENDS IN SKY COVER AND
T/TD OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OTHERWISE GOING REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
TODAY BEGINS OUR TRANSITIONAL PERIOD BACK INTO SUMMERLIKE WEATHER
AS PRONOUNCED HEIGHT AND THICKNESS RISES CONTINUE UNDER DEEPENING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL TREND GUSTY BY AFTERNOON.
USING A MODEL BLEND OF 18-21Z 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST MAX
READINGS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST SPOTS,
PERHAPS TOUCHING THE 80F MARK IN WARMER LOCALES OF THE CHAMPLAIN
AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEYS WHERE DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY BOOST
READINGS A DEGREE OR TWO. WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, A
WEAK AND DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED WSW TO ESE ALONG/JUST
NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER MAY STILL SPARK A WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-
BASED SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT BASED OFF SFC- BASED CAPES TO 500 J/KG AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DEEP AND DRY (TO 700 MB) SO IF AN ISOLATED
STORM DOES FORM LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH OR SO WILL BE
POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY CONVECTIVE CORES AS PARCEL DESCENT WOULD BE
ACCELERATING DUE TO EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES BENEATH THE CLOUD BASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION FAR
NORTHEAST WILL THEN END BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER, LEAVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
WILL THEN TREND GRADUALLY CLOUDY LATER AT NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A
STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES. A
BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING, THOUGH MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST.

BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN NY COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AND HAVE OFFERED HIGHEST POPS/STEADIER SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND NOMINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN A MORE LIMITED FASHION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD ACHIEVE
LATE DAY VALUES IN UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH
AND EAST OF THESE AREAS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH ANY STEADIER MORNING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS EXITING
OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH TIME AND SKIES TRENDING PARTLY
SUNNY IN MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ON BOARD SHOWING
REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A
MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING HOWEVER, SO
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DISORGANZIED WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY REMAINING
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH, WITH PERHAPS
OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON ON TAP AS AFTERNOON 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE +20 TO +23C RANGE PER LATEST
NAM/GFS/EURO OUTPUT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST SPOTS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW WARMER LOCALES IN THE BROADER
VALLEYS NEARING THE 90F MARK.  DEFINITELY A TIME TO CONSIDER DUSTING
OFF THE AIR CONDITIONERS AFTER A 9-MONTH HIATUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF FA FOR WARM/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA
AS WELL AS OPPORTUNITIES FOR MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO RIDGE
AROUND THE PERIPERHY OF THE RIDGE. IT WILL BE MOIST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER TUES
NGT/WED BEFORE A NORTHERN WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WED NGT
THEN AGAIN PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES FRI NGT/SAT
BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT.

IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY AND ALTHOUGH NOT A WIDESPREAD NEEDED SOAKING
RAIN...WARM MOIST FLOW WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND A PERSISTENT
BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA SHOULD GIVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF
BENEFICIAL RAINS...ALBEIT WHEN IT DOES RAIN IT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE WARM WITH H925 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. HOW HIGH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER.

THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME CLOSER IN LINE ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS
ALTHOUGH PARALLEL UPPER FLOW ALWAYS HAS A TRICK UP ITS SLEEVE. RIGHT
NOW...A WEAK DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING WARM FRONT TUE NGT/WED WILL BRING
ABOUT CHANCE SHOWERS...PERHAPS THUNDR TUE NGT WITH NORTHERN STREAM
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING AN EVENTUAL WASHED OUT FRONT ACROSS FA
WED FOR BETTER CHANCE OF TSTRMS. LINGERING BOUNDARY ON THU MAY BRING
ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTRMS THU THEN LOOKS DRY FOR FRI
AHEAD OF MORE SIGNFICANT NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND FRONT ON
SAT. BETTER DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY ON SAT MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS TOWARD 12Z MON.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY - THURSDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 356 AM SUNDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE
FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW TODAY AS THEY WERE ON
SATURDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO
30 MPH AT TIMES. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START ON SUNDAY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME
DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
FIRE WEATHER...JMG/RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 241139
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
739 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL REGIONAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WARM SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD
INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 726 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO TRENDS IN SKY COVER AND
T/TD OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OTHERWISE GOING REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
TODAY BEGINS OUR TRANSITIONAL PERIOD BACK INTO SUMMERLIKE WEATHER
AS PRONOUNCED HEIGHT AND THICKNESS RISES CONTINUE UNDER DEEPENING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL TREND GUSTY BY AFTERNOON.
USING A MODEL BLEND OF 18-21Z 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST MAX
READINGS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST SPOTS,
PERHAPS TOUCHING THE 80F MARK IN WARMER LOCALES OF THE CHAMPLAIN
AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEYS WHERE DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY BOOST
READINGS A DEGREE OR TWO. WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, A
WEAK AND DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED WSW TO ESE ALONG/JUST
NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER MAY STILL SPARK A WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-
BASED SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT BASED OFF SFC- BASED CAPES TO 500 J/KG AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DEEP AND DRY (TO 700 MB) SO IF AN ISOLATED
STORM DOES FORM LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH OR SO WILL BE
POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY CONVECTIVE CORES AS PARCEL DESCENT WOULD BE
ACCELERATING DUE TO EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES BENEATH THE CLOUD BASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION FAR
NORTHEAST WILL THEN END BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER, LEAVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
WILL THEN TREND GRADUALLY CLOUDY LATER AT NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A
STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES. A
BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING, THOUGH MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST.

BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN NY COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AND HAVE OFFERED HIGHEST POPS/STEADIER SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND NOMINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN A MORE LIMITED FASHION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD ACHIEVE
LATE DAY VALUES IN UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH
AND EAST OF THESE AREAS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH ANY STEADIER MORNING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS EXITING
OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH TIME AND SKIES TRENDING PARTLY
SUNNY IN MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ON BOARD SHOWING
REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A
MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING HOWEVER, SO
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DISORGANZIED WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY REMAINING
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH, WITH PERHAPS
OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON ON TAP AS AFTERNOON 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE +20 TO +23C RANGE PER LATEST
NAM/GFS/EURO OUTPUT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST SPOTS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW WARMER LOCALES IN THE BROADER
VALLEYS NEARING THE 90F MARK.  DEFINITELY A TIME TO CONSIDER DUSTING
OFF THE AIR CONDITIONERS AFTER A 9-MONTH HIATUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF FA FOR WARM/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA
AS WELL AS OPPORTUNITIES FOR MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO RIDGE
AROUND THE PERIPERHY OF THE RIDGE. IT WILL BE MOIST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER TUES
NGT/WED BEFORE A NORTHERN WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WED NGT
THEN AGAIN PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES FRI NGT/SAT
BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT.

IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY AND ALTHOUGH NOT A WIDESPREAD NEEDED SOAKING
RAIN...WARM MOIST FLOW WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND A PERSISTENT
BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA SHOULD GIVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF
BENEFICIAL RAINS...ALBEIT WHEN IT DOES RAIN IT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE WARM WITH H925 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. HOW HIGH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER.

THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME CLOSER IN LINE ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS
ALTHOUGH PARALLEL UPPER FLOW ALWAYS HAS A TRICK UP ITS SLEEVE. RIGHT
NOW...A WEAK DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING WARM FRONT TUE NGT/WED WILL BRING
ABOUT CHANCE SHOWERS...PERHAPS THUNDR TUE NGT WITH NORTHERN STREAM
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING AN EVENTUAL WASHED OUT FRONT ACROSS FA
WED FOR BETTER CHANCE OF TSTRMS. LINGERING BOUNDARY ON THU MAY BRING
ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTRMS THU THEN LOOKS DRY FOR FRI
AHEAD OF MORE SIGNFICANT NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND FRONT ON
SAT. BETTER DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY ON SAT MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS TOWARD 12Z MON.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY - THURSDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 356 AM SUNDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE
FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW TODAY AS THEY WERE ON
SATURDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO
30 MPH AT TIMES. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START ON SUNDAY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME
DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
FIRE WEATHER...JMG/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241139
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
739 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL REGIONAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WARM SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD
INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 726 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO TRENDS IN SKY COVER AND
T/TD OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OTHERWISE GOING REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
TODAY BEGINS OUR TRANSITIONAL PERIOD BACK INTO SUMMERLIKE WEATHER
AS PRONOUNCED HEIGHT AND THICKNESS RISES CONTINUE UNDER DEEPENING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL TREND GUSTY BY AFTERNOON.
USING A MODEL BLEND OF 18-21Z 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST MAX
READINGS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST SPOTS,
PERHAPS TOUCHING THE 80F MARK IN WARMER LOCALES OF THE CHAMPLAIN
AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEYS WHERE DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY BOOST
READINGS A DEGREE OR TWO. WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, A
WEAK AND DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED WSW TO ESE ALONG/JUST
NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER MAY STILL SPARK A WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-
BASED SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT BASED OFF SFC- BASED CAPES TO 500 J/KG AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DEEP AND DRY (TO 700 MB) SO IF AN ISOLATED
STORM DOES FORM LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH OR SO WILL BE
POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY CONVECTIVE CORES AS PARCEL DESCENT WOULD BE
ACCELERATING DUE TO EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES BENEATH THE CLOUD BASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION FAR
NORTHEAST WILL THEN END BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER, LEAVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
WILL THEN TREND GRADUALLY CLOUDY LATER AT NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A
STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES. A
BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING, THOUGH MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST.

BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN NY COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AND HAVE OFFERED HIGHEST POPS/STEADIER SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND NOMINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN A MORE LIMITED FASHION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD ACHIEVE
LATE DAY VALUES IN UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH
AND EAST OF THESE AREAS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH ANY STEADIER MORNING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS EXITING
OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH TIME AND SKIES TRENDING PARTLY
SUNNY IN MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ON BOARD SHOWING
REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A
MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING HOWEVER, SO
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DISORGANZIED WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY REMAINING
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH, WITH PERHAPS
OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON ON TAP AS AFTERNOON 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE +20 TO +23C RANGE PER LATEST
NAM/GFS/EURO OUTPUT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST SPOTS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW WARMER LOCALES IN THE BROADER
VALLEYS NEARING THE 90F MARK.  DEFINITELY A TIME TO CONSIDER DUSTING
OFF THE AIR CONDITIONERS AFTER A 9-MONTH HIATUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF FA FOR WARM/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA
AS WELL AS OPPORTUNITIES FOR MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO RIDGE
AROUND THE PERIPERHY OF THE RIDGE. IT WILL BE MOIST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER TUES
NGT/WED BEFORE A NORTHERN WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WED NGT
THEN AGAIN PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES FRI NGT/SAT
BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT.

IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY AND ALTHOUGH NOT A WIDESPREAD NEEDED SOAKING
RAIN...WARM MOIST FLOW WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND A PERSISTENT
BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA SHOULD GIVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF
BENEFICIAL RAINS...ALBEIT WHEN IT DOES RAIN IT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE WARM WITH H925 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. HOW HIGH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER.

THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME CLOSER IN LINE ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS
ALTHOUGH PARALLEL UPPER FLOW ALWAYS HAS A TRICK UP ITS SLEEVE. RIGHT
NOW...A WEAK DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING WARM FRONT TUE NGT/WED WILL BRING
ABOUT CHANCE SHOWERS...PERHAPS THUNDR TUE NGT WITH NORTHERN STREAM
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING AN EVENTUAL WASHED OUT FRONT ACROSS FA
WED FOR BETTER CHANCE OF TSTRMS. LINGERING BOUNDARY ON THU MAY BRING
ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTRMS THU THEN LOOKS DRY FOR FRI
AHEAD OF MORE SIGNFICANT NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND FRONT ON
SAT. BETTER DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY ON SAT MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS TOWARD 12Z MON.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY - THURSDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 356 AM SUNDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE
FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW TODAY AS THEY WERE ON
SATURDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO
30 MPH AT TIMES. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START ON SUNDAY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME
DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
FIRE WEATHER...JMG/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241139
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
739 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL REGIONAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WARM SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD
INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 726 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO TRENDS IN SKY COVER AND
T/TD OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OTHERWISE GOING REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
TODAY BEGINS OUR TRANSITIONAL PERIOD BACK INTO SUMMERLIKE WEATHER
AS PRONOUNCED HEIGHT AND THICKNESS RISES CONTINUE UNDER DEEPENING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL TREND GUSTY BY AFTERNOON.
USING A MODEL BLEND OF 18-21Z 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST MAX
READINGS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST SPOTS,
PERHAPS TOUCHING THE 80F MARK IN WARMER LOCALES OF THE CHAMPLAIN
AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEYS WHERE DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY BOOST
READINGS A DEGREE OR TWO. WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, A
WEAK AND DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED WSW TO ESE ALONG/JUST
NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER MAY STILL SPARK A WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-
BASED SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT BASED OFF SFC- BASED CAPES TO 500 J/KG AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DEEP AND DRY (TO 700 MB) SO IF AN ISOLATED
STORM DOES FORM LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH OR SO WILL BE
POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY CONVECTIVE CORES AS PARCEL DESCENT WOULD BE
ACCELERATING DUE TO EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES BENEATH THE CLOUD BASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION FAR
NORTHEAST WILL THEN END BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER, LEAVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
WILL THEN TREND GRADUALLY CLOUDY LATER AT NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A
STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES. A
BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING, THOUGH MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST.

BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN NY COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AND HAVE OFFERED HIGHEST POPS/STEADIER SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND NOMINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN A MORE LIMITED FASHION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD ACHIEVE
LATE DAY VALUES IN UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH
AND EAST OF THESE AREAS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH ANY STEADIER MORNING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS EXITING
OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH TIME AND SKIES TRENDING PARTLY
SUNNY IN MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ON BOARD SHOWING
REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A
MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING HOWEVER, SO
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DISORGANZIED WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY REMAINING
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH, WITH PERHAPS
OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON ON TAP AS AFTERNOON 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE +20 TO +23C RANGE PER LATEST
NAM/GFS/EURO OUTPUT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST SPOTS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW WARMER LOCALES IN THE BROADER
VALLEYS NEARING THE 90F MARK.  DEFINITELY A TIME TO CONSIDER DUSTING
OFF THE AIR CONDITIONERS AFTER A 9-MONTH HIATUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF FA FOR WARM/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA
AS WELL AS OPPORTUNITIES FOR MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO RIDGE
AROUND THE PERIPERHY OF THE RIDGE. IT WILL BE MOIST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER TUES
NGT/WED BEFORE A NORTHERN WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WED NGT
THEN AGAIN PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES FRI NGT/SAT
BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT.

IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY AND ALTHOUGH NOT A WIDESPREAD NEEDED SOAKING
RAIN...WARM MOIST FLOW WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND A PERSISTENT
BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA SHOULD GIVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF
BENEFICIAL RAINS...ALBEIT WHEN IT DOES RAIN IT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE WARM WITH H925 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. HOW HIGH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER.

THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME CLOSER IN LINE ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS
ALTHOUGH PARALLEL UPPER FLOW ALWAYS HAS A TRICK UP ITS SLEEVE. RIGHT
NOW...A WEAK DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING WARM FRONT TUE NGT/WED WILL BRING
ABOUT CHANCE SHOWERS...PERHAPS THUNDR TUE NGT WITH NORTHERN STREAM
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING AN EVENTUAL WASHED OUT FRONT ACROSS FA
WED FOR BETTER CHANCE OF TSTRMS. LINGERING BOUNDARY ON THU MAY BRING
ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTRMS THU THEN LOOKS DRY FOR FRI
AHEAD OF MORE SIGNFICANT NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND FRONT ON
SAT. BETTER DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY ON SAT MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS TOWARD 12Z MON.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY - THURSDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 356 AM SUNDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE
FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW TODAY AS THEY WERE ON
SATURDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO
30 MPH AT TIMES. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START ON SUNDAY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME
DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
FIRE WEATHER...JMG/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241139
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
739 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL REGIONAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WARM SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD
INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 726 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO TRENDS IN SKY COVER AND
T/TD OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OTHERWISE GOING REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
TODAY BEGINS OUR TRANSITIONAL PERIOD BACK INTO SUMMERLIKE WEATHER
AS PRONOUNCED HEIGHT AND THICKNESS RISES CONTINUE UNDER DEEPENING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL TREND GUSTY BY AFTERNOON.
USING A MODEL BLEND OF 18-21Z 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST MAX
READINGS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST SPOTS,
PERHAPS TOUCHING THE 80F MARK IN WARMER LOCALES OF THE CHAMPLAIN
AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEYS WHERE DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY BOOST
READINGS A DEGREE OR TWO. WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, A
WEAK AND DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED WSW TO ESE ALONG/JUST
NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER MAY STILL SPARK A WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-
BASED SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT BASED OFF SFC- BASED CAPES TO 500 J/KG AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DEEP AND DRY (TO 700 MB) SO IF AN ISOLATED
STORM DOES FORM LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH OR SO WILL BE
POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY CONVECTIVE CORES AS PARCEL DESCENT WOULD BE
ACCELERATING DUE TO EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES BENEATH THE CLOUD BASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION FAR
NORTHEAST WILL THEN END BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER, LEAVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
WILL THEN TREND GRADUALLY CLOUDY LATER AT NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A
STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES. A
BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING, THOUGH MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST.

BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN NY COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AND HAVE OFFERED HIGHEST POPS/STEADIER SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND NOMINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN A MORE LIMITED FASHION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD ACHIEVE
LATE DAY VALUES IN UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH
AND EAST OF THESE AREAS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH ANY STEADIER MORNING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS EXITING
OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH TIME AND SKIES TRENDING PARTLY
SUNNY IN MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ON BOARD SHOWING
REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A
MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING HOWEVER, SO
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DISORGANZIED WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY REMAINING
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH, WITH PERHAPS
OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON ON TAP AS AFTERNOON 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE +20 TO +23C RANGE PER LATEST
NAM/GFS/EURO OUTPUT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST SPOTS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW WARMER LOCALES IN THE BROADER
VALLEYS NEARING THE 90F MARK.  DEFINITELY A TIME TO CONSIDER DUSTING
OFF THE AIR CONDITIONERS AFTER A 9-MONTH HIATUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF FA FOR WARM/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA
AS WELL AS OPPORTUNITIES FOR MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO RIDGE
AROUND THE PERIPERHY OF THE RIDGE. IT WILL BE MOIST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER TUES
NGT/WED BEFORE A NORTHERN WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WED NGT
THEN AGAIN PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES FRI NGT/SAT
BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT.

IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY AND ALTHOUGH NOT A WIDESPREAD NEEDED SOAKING
RAIN...WARM MOIST FLOW WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND A PERSISTENT
BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA SHOULD GIVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF
BENEFICIAL RAINS...ALBEIT WHEN IT DOES RAIN IT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE WARM WITH H925 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. HOW HIGH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER.

THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME CLOSER IN LINE ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS
ALTHOUGH PARALLEL UPPER FLOW ALWAYS HAS A TRICK UP ITS SLEEVE. RIGHT
NOW...A WEAK DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING WARM FRONT TUE NGT/WED WILL BRING
ABOUT CHANCE SHOWERS...PERHAPS THUNDR TUE NGT WITH NORTHERN STREAM
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING AN EVENTUAL WASHED OUT FRONT ACROSS FA
WED FOR BETTER CHANCE OF TSTRMS. LINGERING BOUNDARY ON THU MAY BRING
ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTRMS THU THEN LOOKS DRY FOR FRI
AHEAD OF MORE SIGNFICANT NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND FRONT ON
SAT. BETTER DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY ON SAT MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS TOWARD 12Z MON.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY - THURSDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 356 AM SUNDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE
FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW TODAY AS THEY WERE ON
SATURDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO
30 MPH AT TIMES. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START ON SUNDAY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME
DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
FIRE WEATHER...JMG/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241139
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
739 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL REGIONAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WARM SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD
INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 726 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO TRENDS IN SKY COVER AND
T/TD OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OTHERWISE GOING REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
TODAY BEGINS OUR TRANSITIONAL PERIOD BACK INTO SUMMERLIKE WEATHER
AS PRONOUNCED HEIGHT AND THICKNESS RISES CONTINUE UNDER DEEPENING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL TREND GUSTY BY AFTERNOON.
USING A MODEL BLEND OF 18-21Z 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST MAX
READINGS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST SPOTS,
PERHAPS TOUCHING THE 80F MARK IN WARMER LOCALES OF THE CHAMPLAIN
AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEYS WHERE DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY BOOST
READINGS A DEGREE OR TWO. WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, A
WEAK AND DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED WSW TO ESE ALONG/JUST
NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER MAY STILL SPARK A WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-
BASED SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT BASED OFF SFC- BASED CAPES TO 500 J/KG AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DEEP AND DRY (TO 700 MB) SO IF AN ISOLATED
STORM DOES FORM LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH OR SO WILL BE
POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY CONVECTIVE CORES AS PARCEL DESCENT WOULD BE
ACCELERATING DUE TO EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES BENEATH THE CLOUD BASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION FAR
NORTHEAST WILL THEN END BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER, LEAVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
WILL THEN TREND GRADUALLY CLOUDY LATER AT NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A
STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES. A
BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING, THOUGH MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST.

BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN NY COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AND HAVE OFFERED HIGHEST POPS/STEADIER SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND NOMINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN A MORE LIMITED FASHION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD ACHIEVE
LATE DAY VALUES IN UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH
AND EAST OF THESE AREAS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH ANY STEADIER MORNING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS EXITING
OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH TIME AND SKIES TRENDING PARTLY
SUNNY IN MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ON BOARD SHOWING
REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A
MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING HOWEVER, SO
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DISORGANZIED WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY REMAINING
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH, WITH PERHAPS
OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON ON TAP AS AFTERNOON 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE +20 TO +23C RANGE PER LATEST
NAM/GFS/EURO OUTPUT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST SPOTS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW WARMER LOCALES IN THE BROADER
VALLEYS NEARING THE 90F MARK.  DEFINITELY A TIME TO CONSIDER DUSTING
OFF THE AIR CONDITIONERS AFTER A 9-MONTH HIATUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF FA FOR WARM/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA
AS WELL AS OPPORTUNITIES FOR MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO RIDGE
AROUND THE PERIPERHY OF THE RIDGE. IT WILL BE MOIST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER TUES
NGT/WED BEFORE A NORTHERN WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WED NGT
THEN AGAIN PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES FRI NGT/SAT
BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT.

IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY AND ALTHOUGH NOT A WIDESPREAD NEEDED SOAKING
RAIN...WARM MOIST FLOW WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND A PERSISTENT
BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA SHOULD GIVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF
BENEFICIAL RAINS...ALBEIT WHEN IT DOES RAIN IT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE WARM WITH H925 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. HOW HIGH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER.

THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME CLOSER IN LINE ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS
ALTHOUGH PARALLEL UPPER FLOW ALWAYS HAS A TRICK UP ITS SLEEVE. RIGHT
NOW...A WEAK DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING WARM FRONT TUE NGT/WED WILL BRING
ABOUT CHANCE SHOWERS...PERHAPS THUNDR TUE NGT WITH NORTHERN STREAM
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING AN EVENTUAL WASHED OUT FRONT ACROSS FA
WED FOR BETTER CHANCE OF TSTRMS. LINGERING BOUNDARY ON THU MAY BRING
ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTRMS THU THEN LOOKS DRY FOR FRI
AHEAD OF MORE SIGNFICANT NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND FRONT ON
SAT. BETTER DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY ON SAT MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS TOWARD 12Z MON.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY - THURSDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 356 AM SUNDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE
FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW TODAY AS THEY WERE ON
SATURDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO
30 MPH AT TIMES. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START ON SUNDAY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME
DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
FIRE WEATHER...JMG/RJS




000
FXUS61 KALY 241136
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
736 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 646 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...AND TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RISE AS THE
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK WARM
FRONT THAT GRAZED NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE
STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MIDWEST. OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECWMF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE FL AND
LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT
IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN CATSKILLS...NRN
BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED BY
THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE
0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.  PWAT
VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO. THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI
CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S
COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA...KGFL...EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT PASSES
TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT EASTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING A HOLD ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AS A PIECE ENERGY
RIDES OVER THE TOP.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 241136
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
736 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 646 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...AND TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RISE AS THE
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK WARM
FRONT THAT GRAZED NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE
STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MIDWEST. OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECWMF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE FL AND
LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT
IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN CATSKILLS...NRN
BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED BY
THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE
0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.  PWAT
VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO. THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI
CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S
COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA...KGFL...EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT PASSES
TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT EASTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING A HOLD ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AS A PIECE ENERGY
RIDES OVER THE TOP.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 241136
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
736 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 646 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...AND TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RISE AS THE
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK WARM
FRONT THAT GRAZED NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE
STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MIDWEST. OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECWMF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE FL AND
LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT
IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN CATSKILLS...NRN
BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED BY
THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE
0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.  PWAT
VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO. THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI
CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S
COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA...KGFL...EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT PASSES
TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT EASTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING A HOLD ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AS A PIECE ENERGY
RIDES OVER THE TOP.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 241136
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
736 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 646 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...AND TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RISE AS THE
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK WARM
FRONT THAT GRAZED NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE
STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MIDWEST. OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECWMF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE FL AND
LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT
IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN CATSKILLS...NRN
BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED BY
THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE
0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.  PWAT
VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO. THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI
CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S
COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA...KGFL...EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT PASSES
TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT EASTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING A HOLD ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AS A PIECE ENERGY
RIDES OVER THE TOP.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241126
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL REGIONAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WARM SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD
INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 726 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO TRENDS IN SKY COVER AND
T/TD OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OTHERWISE GOING REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
TODAY BEGINS OUR TRANSITIONAL PERIOD BACK INTO SUMMERLIKE WEATHER
AS PRONOUNCED HEIGHT AND THICKNESS RISES CONTINUE UNDER DEEPENING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL TREND GUSTY BY AFTERNOON.
USING A MODEL BLEND OF 18-21Z 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST MAX
READINGS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST SPOTS,
PERHAPS TOUCHING THE 80F MARK IN WARMER LOCALES OF THE CHAMPLAIN
AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEYS WHERE DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY BOOST
READINGS A DEGREE OR TWO. WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, A
WEAK AND DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED WSW TO ESE ALONG/JUST
NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER MAY STILL SPARK A WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-
BASED SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT BASED OFF SFC- BASED CAPES TO 500 J/KG AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DEEP AND DRY (TO 700 MB) SO IF AN ISOLATED
STORM DOES FORM LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH OR SO WILL BE
POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY CONVECTIVE CORES AS PARCEL DESCENT WOULD BE
ACCELERATING DUE TO EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES BENEATH THE CLOUD BASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION FAR
NORTHEAST WILL THEN END BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER, LEAVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
WILL THEN TREND GRADUALLY CLOUDY LATER AT NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A
STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES. A
BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING, THOUGH MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST.

BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN NY COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AND HAVE OFFERED HIGHEST POPS/STEADIER SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND NOMINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN A MORE LIMITED FASHION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD ACHIEVE
LATE DAY VALUES IN UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH
AND EAST OF THESE AREAS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH ANY STEADIER MORNING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS EXITING
OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH TIME AND SKIES TRENDING PARTLY
SUNNY IN MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ON BOARD SHOWING
REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A
MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING HOWEVER, SO
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DISORGANZIED WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY REMAINING
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH, WITH PERHAPS
OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON ON TAP AS AFTERNOON 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE +20 TO +23C RANGE PER LATEST
NAM/GFS/EURO OUTPUT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST SPOTS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW WARMER LOCALES IN THE BROADER
VALLEYS NEARING THE 90F MARK.  DEFINITELY A TIME TO CONSIDER DUSTING
OFF THE AIR CONDITIONERS AFTER A 9-MONTH HIATUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF FA FOR WARM/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA
AS WELL AS OPPORTUNITIES FOR MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO RIDGE
AROUND THE PERIPERHY OF THE RIDGE. IT WILL BE MOIST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER TUES
NGT/WED BEFORE A NORTHERN WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WED NGT
THEN AGAIN PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES FRI NGT/SAT
BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT.

IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY AND ALTHOUGH NOT A WIDESPREAD NEEDED SOAKING
RAIN...WARM MOIST FLOW WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND A PERSISTENT
BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA SHOULD GIVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF
BENEFICIAL RAINS...ALBEIT WHEN IT DOES RAIN IT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE WARM WITH H925 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. HOW HIGH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER.

THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME CLOSER IN LINE ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS
ALTHOUGH PARALLEL UPPER FLOW ALWAYS HAS A TRICK UP ITS SLEEVE. RIGHT
NOW...A WEAK DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING WARM FRONT TUE NGT/WED WILL BRING
ABOUT CHANCE SHOWERS...PERHAPS THUNDR TUE NGT WITH NORTHERN STREAM
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING AN EVENTUAL WASHED OUT FRONT ACROSS FA
WED FOR BETTER CHANCE OF TSTRMS. LINGERING BOUNDARY ON THU MAY BRING
ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTRMS THU THEN LOOKS DRY FOR FRI
AHEAD OF MORE SIGNFICANT NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND FRONT ON
SAT. BETTER DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY ON SAT MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TONIGHT AND
ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-15 KNOTS TONIGHT TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS
20-30 KNOTS DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR ALSO EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
(MSS/SLK/PBG) WITH 45-50 KNOTS FORECAST AT 2000 FEET AGL...MAINLY
THRU 12Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

12Z MONDAY - THURSDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 356 AM SUNDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE
FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW TODAY AS THEY WERE ON
SATURDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO
30 MPH AT TIMES. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START ON SUNDAY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME
DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
FIRE WEATHER...JMG/RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 241126
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL REGIONAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WARM SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD
INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 726 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO TRENDS IN SKY COVER AND
T/TD OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OTHERWISE GOING REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
TODAY BEGINS OUR TRANSITIONAL PERIOD BACK INTO SUMMERLIKE WEATHER
AS PRONOUNCED HEIGHT AND THICKNESS RISES CONTINUE UNDER DEEPENING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL TREND GUSTY BY AFTERNOON.
USING A MODEL BLEND OF 18-21Z 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST MAX
READINGS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST SPOTS,
PERHAPS TOUCHING THE 80F MARK IN WARMER LOCALES OF THE CHAMPLAIN
AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEYS WHERE DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY BOOST
READINGS A DEGREE OR TWO. WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, A
WEAK AND DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED WSW TO ESE ALONG/JUST
NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER MAY STILL SPARK A WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-
BASED SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT BASED OFF SFC- BASED CAPES TO 500 J/KG AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DEEP AND DRY (TO 700 MB) SO IF AN ISOLATED
STORM DOES FORM LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH OR SO WILL BE
POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY CONVECTIVE CORES AS PARCEL DESCENT WOULD BE
ACCELERATING DUE TO EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES BENEATH THE CLOUD BASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION FAR
NORTHEAST WILL THEN END BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER, LEAVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
WILL THEN TREND GRADUALLY CLOUDY LATER AT NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A
STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES. A
BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING, THOUGH MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST.

BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN NY COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AND HAVE OFFERED HIGHEST POPS/STEADIER SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND NOMINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN A MORE LIMITED FASHION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD ACHIEVE
LATE DAY VALUES IN UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH
AND EAST OF THESE AREAS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH ANY STEADIER MORNING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS EXITING
OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH TIME AND SKIES TRENDING PARTLY
SUNNY IN MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ON BOARD SHOWING
REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A
MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING HOWEVER, SO
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DISORGANZIED WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY REMAINING
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH, WITH PERHAPS
OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON ON TAP AS AFTERNOON 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE +20 TO +23C RANGE PER LATEST
NAM/GFS/EURO OUTPUT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST SPOTS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW WARMER LOCALES IN THE BROADER
VALLEYS NEARING THE 90F MARK.  DEFINITELY A TIME TO CONSIDER DUSTING
OFF THE AIR CONDITIONERS AFTER A 9-MONTH HIATUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF FA FOR WARM/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA
AS WELL AS OPPORTUNITIES FOR MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO RIDGE
AROUND THE PERIPERHY OF THE RIDGE. IT WILL BE MOIST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER TUES
NGT/WED BEFORE A NORTHERN WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WED NGT
THEN AGAIN PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES FRI NGT/SAT
BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT.

IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY AND ALTHOUGH NOT A WIDESPREAD NEEDED SOAKING
RAIN...WARM MOIST FLOW WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND A PERSISTENT
BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA SHOULD GIVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF
BENEFICIAL RAINS...ALBEIT WHEN IT DOES RAIN IT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE WARM WITH H925 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. HOW HIGH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER.

THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME CLOSER IN LINE ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS
ALTHOUGH PARALLEL UPPER FLOW ALWAYS HAS A TRICK UP ITS SLEEVE. RIGHT
NOW...A WEAK DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING WARM FRONT TUE NGT/WED WILL BRING
ABOUT CHANCE SHOWERS...PERHAPS THUNDR TUE NGT WITH NORTHERN STREAM
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING AN EVENTUAL WASHED OUT FRONT ACROSS FA
WED FOR BETTER CHANCE OF TSTRMS. LINGERING BOUNDARY ON THU MAY BRING
ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTRMS THU THEN LOOKS DRY FOR FRI
AHEAD OF MORE SIGNFICANT NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND FRONT ON
SAT. BETTER DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY ON SAT MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TONIGHT AND
ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-15 KNOTS TONIGHT TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS
20-30 KNOTS DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR ALSO EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
(MSS/SLK/PBG) WITH 45-50 KNOTS FORECAST AT 2000 FEET AGL...MAINLY
THRU 12Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

12Z MONDAY - THURSDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 356 AM SUNDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE
FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW TODAY AS THEY WERE ON
SATURDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO
30 MPH AT TIMES. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START ON SUNDAY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME
DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
FIRE WEATHER...JMG/RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241126
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL REGIONAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WARM SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD
INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 726 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO TRENDS IN SKY COVER AND
T/TD OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OTHERWISE GOING REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
TODAY BEGINS OUR TRANSITIONAL PERIOD BACK INTO SUMMERLIKE WEATHER
AS PRONOUNCED HEIGHT AND THICKNESS RISES CONTINUE UNDER DEEPENING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL TREND GUSTY BY AFTERNOON.
USING A MODEL BLEND OF 18-21Z 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST MAX
READINGS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST SPOTS,
PERHAPS TOUCHING THE 80F MARK IN WARMER LOCALES OF THE CHAMPLAIN
AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEYS WHERE DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY BOOST
READINGS A DEGREE OR TWO. WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, A
WEAK AND DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED WSW TO ESE ALONG/JUST
NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER MAY STILL SPARK A WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-
BASED SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT BASED OFF SFC- BASED CAPES TO 500 J/KG AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DEEP AND DRY (TO 700 MB) SO IF AN ISOLATED
STORM DOES FORM LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH OR SO WILL BE
POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY CONVECTIVE CORES AS PARCEL DESCENT WOULD BE
ACCELERATING DUE TO EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES BENEATH THE CLOUD BASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION FAR
NORTHEAST WILL THEN END BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER, LEAVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
WILL THEN TREND GRADUALLY CLOUDY LATER AT NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A
STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES. A
BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING, THOUGH MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST.

BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN NY COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AND HAVE OFFERED HIGHEST POPS/STEADIER SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND NOMINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN A MORE LIMITED FASHION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD ACHIEVE
LATE DAY VALUES IN UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH
AND EAST OF THESE AREAS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH ANY STEADIER MORNING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS EXITING
OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH TIME AND SKIES TRENDING PARTLY
SUNNY IN MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ON BOARD SHOWING
REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A
MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING HOWEVER, SO
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DISORGANZIED WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY REMAINING
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH, WITH PERHAPS
OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON ON TAP AS AFTERNOON 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE +20 TO +23C RANGE PER LATEST
NAM/GFS/EURO OUTPUT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST SPOTS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW WARMER LOCALES IN THE BROADER
VALLEYS NEARING THE 90F MARK.  DEFINITELY A TIME TO CONSIDER DUSTING
OFF THE AIR CONDITIONERS AFTER A 9-MONTH HIATUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF FA FOR WARM/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA
AS WELL AS OPPORTUNITIES FOR MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO RIDGE
AROUND THE PERIPERHY OF THE RIDGE. IT WILL BE MOIST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER TUES
NGT/WED BEFORE A NORTHERN WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WED NGT
THEN AGAIN PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES FRI NGT/SAT
BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT.

IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY AND ALTHOUGH NOT A WIDESPREAD NEEDED SOAKING
RAIN...WARM MOIST FLOW WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND A PERSISTENT
BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA SHOULD GIVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF
BENEFICIAL RAINS...ALBEIT WHEN IT DOES RAIN IT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE WARM WITH H925 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. HOW HIGH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER.

THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME CLOSER IN LINE ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS
ALTHOUGH PARALLEL UPPER FLOW ALWAYS HAS A TRICK UP ITS SLEEVE. RIGHT
NOW...A WEAK DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING WARM FRONT TUE NGT/WED WILL BRING
ABOUT CHANCE SHOWERS...PERHAPS THUNDR TUE NGT WITH NORTHERN STREAM
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING AN EVENTUAL WASHED OUT FRONT ACROSS FA
WED FOR BETTER CHANCE OF TSTRMS. LINGERING BOUNDARY ON THU MAY BRING
ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTRMS THU THEN LOOKS DRY FOR FRI
AHEAD OF MORE SIGNFICANT NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND FRONT ON
SAT. BETTER DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY ON SAT MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TONIGHT AND
ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-15 KNOTS TONIGHT TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS
20-30 KNOTS DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR ALSO EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
(MSS/SLK/PBG) WITH 45-50 KNOTS FORECAST AT 2000 FEET AGL...MAINLY
THRU 12Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

12Z MONDAY - THURSDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 356 AM SUNDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE
FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW TODAY AS THEY WERE ON
SATURDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO
30 MPH AT TIMES. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START ON SUNDAY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME
DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
FIRE WEATHER...JMG/RJS



000
FXUS61 KBUF 241119
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
719 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRODUCE A
BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
FINALLY BOOST TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A WARM FRONT
WILL THEN ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
WILL SIGNAL A CHANGE TO WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH THE MORE SUMMERY
AIRMASS SUPPORTING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK THOUGH WILL BE RAINFREE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND BACK
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND SUPPLY OUR REGION WITH
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDAY HOURS...THEN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR WILL PUSH OUR WAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
WARM FRONT.

UNLIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WHEN WE EXPERIENCED COOL WEATHER...
H85 TEMPS CLIMBING TO ARND 12C (WRN COUNTIES) WILL COMBINE WITH A
RISING HGT FIELD AND AMPLE SUNSHINE TO SEND OUR AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT PARTS OF
THE GENESEE COUNTY VALLEY COULD TICKLE 80. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEG F HIGHER THAN THOSE FROM SATURDAY...AND 20 DEG
HIGHER THAN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS OF FRIDAY.

TONIGHT...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WARMER AIR PUSHING NORTH ACROSS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE THE PROCESS OF GENERATING ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED LIFT
BECOMING GREAT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS NEAR...AND NORTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARMER
AND WARMER NIGHTS...AS THE MERCURY TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL TO
AROUND 60 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WEST OF ROCHESTER...WHILE MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE MINS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. THIS WILL BE A FAR CRY FROM THE WIDESPREAD FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS FROM JUST TWO NIGHTS AGO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE PUSHING
ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THE BULK OF ANY WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT AND SHOULD THUS PRIMARILY IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY...WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD EXPERIENCE
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH. HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
/WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND WHERE THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST
AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR POURS
INTO THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE BURGEONING WARM SECTOR.
THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IMMEDIATELY NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP READINGS
CONFINED TO THE 70S.

AS WE GET INTO MONDAY EVENING...ANY LINGERING WARM FRONTAL
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THAT PARTICULAR REGION AS THE WARM FRONT FINISHES CLEARING
OUR FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...A VERY MODEST ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...AND WILL PROBABLY HELP TO TRIGGER A NEW ROUND OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. GIVEN DIMINISHING NOCTURNAL
INSTABILITY...EXPECT THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BOTH PRECIP AND THUNDER
CHANCES THEN DIMINISHING OVER TIME AND WITH EASTWARD EXTENT DURING
THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID NIGHT... WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE MID 60S IN
MOST PLACES...AND DEWPOINTS HOVERING JUST A LITTLE BELOW THESE
LEVELS.

AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL THEN PROBABLY LEAD TO A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITHOUT AN OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC-SCALE TRIGGER
PRESENT...ANY SUCH ACTIVITY MAY HAVE TO RELY MORE ON LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO GET GOING INITIALLY. THIS
WOULD TEND TO RESULT IN THE TYPICALLY-SEEN SCENARIO WHERE
CONVECTION INITIALLY FIRES TO THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE AND OTHER
REGIONS OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THEN SPREADS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE FORECAST BY
PLACING THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND LOWER CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
AREAS MORE LIKELY TO BE SHADOWED BY THE LAKES... THOUGH HAVE
REFRAINED FROM GOING LOWER THAN THAT JUST YET GIVEN THAT THIS TIME
FRAME IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT. ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD THEN TEND TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTION PROBABLY INCREASES AGAIN LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL
TROUGH...AND ITS ATTENDANT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND TRAILING MODEST
COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE BEST OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO COME
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN RENEWED DIURNAL HEATING WILL LEAD
TO GREATER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURES TO WORK WITH...AND IN TURN SHOULD LEAD TO ONE OR MORE
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ACCORDINGLY RESERVED THE HIGHEST OVERALL
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THAT PARTICULAR DAY...THOUGH HAVE ELECTED TO
KEEP THESE CONFINED TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE TIME BEING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AGAIN STRUGGLING TO FALL BELOW THE MID 60S... AND
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WHEN
THE WARMEST OVERALL TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WE GET INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LINGERING SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION... AND AS A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION IN ITS WAKE...
WITH THIS RIDGE THEN PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH LARGELY DRY AND
QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BOTH FALL BACK A LITTLE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP BACK TO THE
MORE COMFORTABLE MID AND UPPER 50S...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS RETREAT
TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALL
TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN
REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS BACK UP SOME 3-5 DEGREES OR SO FROM THURSDAY/S
READINGS. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE INCREASING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
VERY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME
BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL AGAIN BE IN PLAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WAVE-LADEN COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING IN OUR DIRECTION FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...THOUGH
THESE PACKAGES /AS IS TO BE EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT/ STILL ALSO
EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON ITS TIMING...WITH THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS EUROPEAN
COUNTERPART. WHILE I TEND TO BELIEVE THE LATTER MORE AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE VERY WAVY AND ELONGATED NATURE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
EITHER OF THESE SCENARIOS WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHICH HAS BEEN
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST BY INCREASING CHANCE POPS AND A TREND
TOWARD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SUPPORT
BEAUTIFUL FLYING WEATHER TODAY. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY THROUGH
AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING...THEN AN ALTO-CU DECK WILL ADVANCE
ACROSS OUR REGION AND THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

WHILE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THE LOWERING VFR CIGS
COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS NEAR AND NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND
BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL
KEEP A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE RESULT
WILL BE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS FOR BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
WITH WAVES AVERAGING 2 FEET OR LESS.

THE ONLY PROBLEM IN THE NEAR TERM WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND ON THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER WHERE FUNNELED SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN TO
15 TO 25 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED TO COVER THIS CONCERN.

THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...AND THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE
GENERALLY SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR NEARLY DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
         FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH



000
FXUS61 KOKX 241115
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
715 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE HIGH THEN
MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA MID THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT ENTERING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND STALLING WITHIN THE
VICINITY ON THURSDAY WHILE FURTHER WEAKENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST PARAMETERS MAINLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

ALOFT...THE JET STREAM WILL BE PUSHING NORTH DURING THE
DAY WITH AN INCOMING LONGWAVE RIDGE FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGING
WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...KEEPING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING
THE DAY TODAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFFSHORE
TODAY...ESSENTIALLY BECOMING A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN AND LIKELY INCREASE
WITH ADIABATIC MIXING UP TO 875 TO 900 MB. GUSTS WILL BE IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO
STRONGER SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

THE 850 MB TEMPS HAVE ALREADY BEEN INCREASING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS TREND THROUGH THE DAY. THE MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR
REMARKABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. USED A
MET/EKD BLEND OF TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WHICH VERIFIED PRETTY WELL THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS.

FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE
PROMINENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH IN
PLACE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS LONG ISLAND. USED A BLEND OF MAV AND ECE FOR LOW
TEMPS...AGAIN SIDING WITH A RELATIVELY WARMER SOLUTION.

FOR MONDAY...THE 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES...OVERALL EXHIBITING A STEADY RISING TREND COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY. LIKEWISE...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS NEAR THE SURFACE TO
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. HOWEVER...AT THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...THE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEARLY THE SAME
AS THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS IN PLACE. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND INTO
THE EVENINGS EACH DAY THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS DEVELOP. THE AIR MASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH BUILD UP OF CAPE AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY.
IF THE HIGH AND RIDGE ARE STRONGER AND REMAIN IN PLACE...THE
INLAND AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY. FARTHER EAST IS MORE STABLE WHILE
FARTHER WEST WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE AS THAT IS WHERE WARMER AIR
WILL RESIDE SO CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHER NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC.

AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS FRIDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AND KEPT POPS AT CHANCE.

FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS
RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SW FLOW INCREASES THIS MORNING. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT...OR IN THE
LOWER 20S...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND THIS WILL CAUSE SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER TRUE SEABREEZE DIRECTIONS AT
KJFK/KLGA/KBDR/KGON/KISP CAN BE REALIZED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR TRUE SEABREEZE IS KJFK. SEA BREEZE SHOULD REACH KLGA
LATE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW.

WINDS LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET TO UNDER 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. S/SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHC SHRA/TSTM NW OF NYC
METRO EACH AFTN. COASTAL SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH
S-SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST PARAMETERS MAINLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL.
WINDS AT TIMES COULD APPROACH 20 TO 25 KTS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...
ESPECIALLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5 FEET
OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...PROBABLY BEGINNING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOCAL NON OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOG/POOR VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO
LATE WEEK AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WILL HELP LOWER
DEWPOINTS WITH VERTICAL MIXING. AS A RESULT...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR 25 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...SO THESE CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE THE SPREAD AND GROWTH OF
ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR COASTAL CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN
QUEENS...NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES...WHERE MORE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SO LOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE AS DRY HERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/MET
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...PW
FIRE WEATHER...JM
HYDROLOGY...JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241115
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
715 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE HIGH THEN
MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA MID THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT ENTERING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND STALLING WITHIN THE
VICINITY ON THURSDAY WHILE FURTHER WEAKENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST PARAMETERS MAINLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

ALOFT...THE JET STREAM WILL BE PUSHING NORTH DURING THE
DAY WITH AN INCOMING LONGWAVE RIDGE FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGING
WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...KEEPING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING
THE DAY TODAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFFSHORE
TODAY...ESSENTIALLY BECOMING A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN AND LIKELY INCREASE
WITH ADIABATIC MIXING UP TO 875 TO 900 MB. GUSTS WILL BE IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO
STRONGER SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

THE 850 MB TEMPS HAVE ALREADY BEEN INCREASING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS TREND THROUGH THE DAY. THE MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR
REMARKABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. USED A
MET/EKD BLEND OF TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WHICH VERIFIED PRETTY WELL THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS.

FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE
PROMINENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH IN
PLACE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS LONG ISLAND. USED A BLEND OF MAV AND ECE FOR LOW
TEMPS...AGAIN SIDING WITH A RELATIVELY WARMER SOLUTION.

FOR MONDAY...THE 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES...OVERALL EXHIBITING A STEADY RISING TREND COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY. LIKEWISE...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS NEAR THE SURFACE TO
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. HOWEVER...AT THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...THE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEARLY THE SAME
AS THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS IN PLACE. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND INTO
THE EVENINGS EACH DAY THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS DEVELOP. THE AIR MASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH BUILD UP OF CAPE AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY.
IF THE HIGH AND RIDGE ARE STRONGER AND REMAIN IN PLACE...THE
INLAND AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY. FARTHER EAST IS MORE STABLE WHILE
FARTHER WEST WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE AS THAT IS WHERE WARMER AIR
WILL RESIDE SO CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHER NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC.

AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS FRIDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AND KEPT POPS AT CHANCE.

FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS
RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SW FLOW INCREASES THIS MORNING. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT...OR IN THE
LOWER 20S...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND THIS WILL CAUSE SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER TRUE SEABREEZE DIRECTIONS AT
KJFK/KLGA/KBDR/KGON/KISP CAN BE REALIZED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR TRUE SEABREEZE IS KJFK. SEA BREEZE SHOULD REACH KLGA
LATE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW.

WINDS LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET TO UNDER 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. S/SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHC SHRA/TSTM NW OF NYC
METRO EACH AFTN. COASTAL SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH
S-SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST PARAMETERS MAINLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL.
WINDS AT TIMES COULD APPROACH 20 TO 25 KTS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...
ESPECIALLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5 FEET
OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...PROBABLY BEGINNING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOCAL NON OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOG/POOR VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO
LATE WEEK AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WILL HELP LOWER
DEWPOINTS WITH VERTICAL MIXING. AS A RESULT...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR 25 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...SO THESE CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE THE SPREAD AND GROWTH OF
ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR COASTAL CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN
QUEENS...NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES...WHERE MORE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SO LOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE AS DRY HERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/MET
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...PW
FIRE WEATHER...JM
HYDROLOGY...JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241115
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
715 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE HIGH THEN
MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA MID THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT ENTERING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND STALLING WITHIN THE
VICINITY ON THURSDAY WHILE FURTHER WEAKENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST PARAMETERS MAINLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

ALOFT...THE JET STREAM WILL BE PUSHING NORTH DURING THE
DAY WITH AN INCOMING LONGWAVE RIDGE FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGING
WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...KEEPING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING
THE DAY TODAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFFSHORE
TODAY...ESSENTIALLY BECOMING A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN AND LIKELY INCREASE
WITH ADIABATIC MIXING UP TO 875 TO 900 MB. GUSTS WILL BE IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO
STRONGER SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

THE 850 MB TEMPS HAVE ALREADY BEEN INCREASING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS TREND THROUGH THE DAY. THE MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR
REMARKABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. USED A
MET/EKD BLEND OF TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WHICH VERIFIED PRETTY WELL THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS.

FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE
PROMINENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH IN
PLACE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS LONG ISLAND. USED A BLEND OF MAV AND ECE FOR LOW
TEMPS...AGAIN SIDING WITH A RELATIVELY WARMER SOLUTION.

FOR MONDAY...THE 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES...OVERALL EXHIBITING A STEADY RISING TREND COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY. LIKEWISE...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS NEAR THE SURFACE TO
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. HOWEVER...AT THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...THE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEARLY THE SAME
AS THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS IN PLACE. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND INTO
THE EVENINGS EACH DAY THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS DEVELOP. THE AIR MASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH BUILD UP OF CAPE AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY.
IF THE HIGH AND RIDGE ARE STRONGER AND REMAIN IN PLACE...THE
INLAND AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY. FARTHER EAST IS MORE STABLE WHILE
FARTHER WEST WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE AS THAT IS WHERE WARMER AIR
WILL RESIDE SO CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHER NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC.

AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS FRIDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AND KEPT POPS AT CHANCE.

FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS
RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SW FLOW INCREASES THIS MORNING. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT...OR IN THE
LOWER 20S...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND THIS WILL CAUSE SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER TRUE SEABREEZE DIRECTIONS AT
KJFK/KLGA/KBDR/KGON/KISP CAN BE REALIZED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR TRUE SEABREEZE IS KJFK. SEA BREEZE SHOULD REACH KLGA
LATE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW.

WINDS LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET TO UNDER 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. S/SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHC SHRA/TSTM NW OF NYC
METRO EACH AFTN. COASTAL SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH
S-SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST PARAMETERS MAINLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL.
WINDS AT TIMES COULD APPROACH 20 TO 25 KTS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...
ESPECIALLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5 FEET
OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...PROBABLY BEGINNING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOCAL NON OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOG/POOR VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO
LATE WEEK AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WILL HELP LOWER
DEWPOINTS WITH VERTICAL MIXING. AS A RESULT...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR 25 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...SO THESE CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE THE SPREAD AND GROWTH OF
ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR COASTAL CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN
QUEENS...NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES...WHERE MORE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SO LOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE AS DRY HERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/MET
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...PW
FIRE WEATHER...JM
HYDROLOGY...JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241115
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
715 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE HIGH THEN
MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA MID THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT ENTERING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND STALLING WITHIN THE
VICINITY ON THURSDAY WHILE FURTHER WEAKENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST PARAMETERS MAINLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

ALOFT...THE JET STREAM WILL BE PUSHING NORTH DURING THE
DAY WITH AN INCOMING LONGWAVE RIDGE FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGING
WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...KEEPING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING
THE DAY TODAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFFSHORE
TODAY...ESSENTIALLY BECOMING A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN AND LIKELY INCREASE
WITH ADIABATIC MIXING UP TO 875 TO 900 MB. GUSTS WILL BE IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO
STRONGER SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

THE 850 MB TEMPS HAVE ALREADY BEEN INCREASING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS TREND THROUGH THE DAY. THE MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR
REMARKABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. USED A
MET/EKD BLEND OF TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WHICH VERIFIED PRETTY WELL THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS.

FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE
PROMINENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH IN
PLACE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS LONG ISLAND. USED A BLEND OF MAV AND ECE FOR LOW
TEMPS...AGAIN SIDING WITH A RELATIVELY WARMER SOLUTION.

FOR MONDAY...THE 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES...OVERALL EXHIBITING A STEADY RISING TREND COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY. LIKEWISE...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS NEAR THE SURFACE TO
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. HOWEVER...AT THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...THE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEARLY THE SAME
AS THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS IN PLACE. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND INTO
THE EVENINGS EACH DAY THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS DEVELOP. THE AIR MASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH BUILD UP OF CAPE AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY.
IF THE HIGH AND RIDGE ARE STRONGER AND REMAIN IN PLACE...THE
INLAND AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY. FARTHER EAST IS MORE STABLE WHILE
FARTHER WEST WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE AS THAT IS WHERE WARMER AIR
WILL RESIDE SO CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHER NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC.

AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS FRIDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AND KEPT POPS AT CHANCE.

FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS
RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SW FLOW INCREASES THIS MORNING. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT...OR IN THE
LOWER 20S...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND THIS WILL CAUSE SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER TRUE SEABREEZE DIRECTIONS AT
KJFK/KLGA/KBDR/KGON/KISP CAN BE REALIZED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR TRUE SEABREEZE IS KJFK. SEA BREEZE SHOULD REACH KLGA
LATE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW.

WINDS LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET TO UNDER 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. S/SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHC SHRA/TSTM NW OF NYC
METRO EACH AFTN. COASTAL SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH
S-SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST PARAMETERS MAINLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL.
WINDS AT TIMES COULD APPROACH 20 TO 25 KTS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...
ESPECIALLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5 FEET
OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...PROBABLY BEGINNING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOCAL NON OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOG/POOR VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO
LATE WEEK AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WILL HELP LOWER
DEWPOINTS WITH VERTICAL MIXING. AS A RESULT...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR 25 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...SO THESE CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE THE SPREAD AND GROWTH OF
ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR COASTAL CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN
QUEENS...NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES...WHERE MORE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SO LOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE AS DRY HERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/MET
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...PW
FIRE WEATHER...JM
HYDROLOGY...JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241115
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
715 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE HIGH THEN
MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA MID THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT ENTERING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND STALLING WITHIN THE
VICINITY ON THURSDAY WHILE FURTHER WEAKENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST PARAMETERS MAINLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

ALOFT...THE JET STREAM WILL BE PUSHING NORTH DURING THE
DAY WITH AN INCOMING LONGWAVE RIDGE FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGING
WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...KEEPING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING
THE DAY TODAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFFSHORE
TODAY...ESSENTIALLY BECOMING A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN AND LIKELY INCREASE
WITH ADIABATIC MIXING UP TO 875 TO 900 MB. GUSTS WILL BE IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO
STRONGER SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

THE 850 MB TEMPS HAVE ALREADY BEEN INCREASING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS TREND THROUGH THE DAY. THE MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR
REMARKABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. USED A
MET/EKD BLEND OF TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WHICH VERIFIED PRETTY WELL THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS.

FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE
PROMINENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH IN
PLACE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS LONG ISLAND. USED A BLEND OF MAV AND ECE FOR LOW
TEMPS...AGAIN SIDING WITH A RELATIVELY WARMER SOLUTION.

FOR MONDAY...THE 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES...OVERALL EXHIBITING A STEADY RISING TREND COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY. LIKEWISE...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS NEAR THE SURFACE TO
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. HOWEVER...AT THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...THE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEARLY THE SAME
AS THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS IN PLACE. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND INTO
THE EVENINGS EACH DAY THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS DEVELOP. THE AIR MASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH BUILD UP OF CAPE AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY.
IF THE HIGH AND RIDGE ARE STRONGER AND REMAIN IN PLACE...THE
INLAND AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY. FARTHER EAST IS MORE STABLE WHILE
FARTHER WEST WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE AS THAT IS WHERE WARMER AIR
WILL RESIDE SO CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHER NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC.

AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS FRIDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AND KEPT POPS AT CHANCE.

FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS
RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SW FLOW INCREASES THIS MORNING. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT...OR IN THE
LOWER 20S...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND THIS WILL CAUSE SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER TRUE SEABREEZE DIRECTIONS AT
KJFK/KLGA/KBDR/KGON/KISP CAN BE REALIZED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR TRUE SEABREEZE IS KJFK. SEA BREEZE SHOULD REACH KLGA
LATE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW.

WINDS LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET TO UNDER 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. S/SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHC SHRA/TSTM NW OF NYC
METRO EACH AFTN. COASTAL SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH
S-SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST PARAMETERS MAINLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL.
WINDS AT TIMES COULD APPROACH 20 TO 25 KTS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...
ESPECIALLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5 FEET
OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...PROBABLY BEGINNING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOCAL NON OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOG/POOR VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO
LATE WEEK AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WILL HELP LOWER
DEWPOINTS WITH VERTICAL MIXING. AS A RESULT...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR 25 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...SO THESE CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE THE SPREAD AND GROWTH OF
ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR COASTAL CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN
QUEENS...NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES...WHERE MORE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SO LOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE AS DRY HERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/MET
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...PW
FIRE WEATHER...JM
HYDROLOGY...JM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241115
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
715 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE HIGH THEN
MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION WITH MULTIPLE LOWS PASSING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA MID THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT ENTERING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND STALLING WITHIN THE
VICINITY ON THURSDAY WHILE FURTHER WEAKENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST PARAMETERS MAINLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

ALOFT...THE JET STREAM WILL BE PUSHING NORTH DURING THE
DAY WITH AN INCOMING LONGWAVE RIDGE FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGING
WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE...KEEPING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING
THE DAY TODAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFFSHORE
TODAY...ESSENTIALLY BECOMING A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN AND LIKELY INCREASE
WITH ADIABATIC MIXING UP TO 875 TO 900 MB. GUSTS WILL BE IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO
STRONGER SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

THE 850 MB TEMPS HAVE ALREADY BEEN INCREASING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THIS TREND THROUGH THE DAY. THE MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR
REMARKABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. USED A
MET/EKD BLEND OF TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WHICH VERIFIED PRETTY WELL THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS.

FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE
PROMINENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH IN
PLACE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS LONG ISLAND. USED A BLEND OF MAV AND ECE FOR LOW
TEMPS...AGAIN SIDING WITH A RELATIVELY WARMER SOLUTION.

FOR MONDAY...THE 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES...OVERALL EXHIBITING A STEADY RISING TREND COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY. LIKEWISE...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS NEAR THE SURFACE TO
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. HOWEVER...AT THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...THE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEARLY THE SAME
AS THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS IN PLACE. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND INTO
THE EVENINGS EACH DAY THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS DEVELOP. THE AIR MASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH BUILD UP OF CAPE AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY.
IF THE HIGH AND RIDGE ARE STRONGER AND REMAIN IN PLACE...THE
INLAND AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY. FARTHER EAST IS MORE STABLE WHILE
FARTHER WEST WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE AS THAT IS WHERE WARMER AIR
WILL RESIDE SO CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHER NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC.

AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS FRIDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AND KEPT POPS AT CHANCE.

FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS
RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SW FLOW INCREASES THIS MORNING. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT...OR IN THE
LOWER 20S...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND THIS WILL CAUSE SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER TRUE SEABREEZE DIRECTIONS AT
KJFK/KLGA/KBDR/KGON/KISP CAN BE REALIZED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR TRUE SEABREEZE IS KJFK. SEA BREEZE SHOULD REACH KLGA
LATE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW.

WINDS LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET TO UNDER 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. S/SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHC SHRA/TSTM NW OF NYC
METRO EACH AFTN. COASTAL SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH
S-SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST PARAMETERS MAINLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL.
WINDS AT TIMES COULD APPROACH 20 TO 25 KTS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...
ESPECIALLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5 FEET
OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...PROBABLY BEGINNING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOCAL NON OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOG/POOR VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO
LATE WEEK AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WILL HELP LOWER
DEWPOINTS WITH VERTICAL MIXING. AS A RESULT...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR 25 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...SO THESE CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE THE SPREAD AND GROWTH OF
ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR COASTAL CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN
QUEENS...NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES...WHERE MORE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SO LOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE AS DRY HERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/MET
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...PW
FIRE WEATHER...JM
HYDROLOGY...JM



000
FXUS61 KBGM 241100
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
700 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A COOL DAWN...WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S UNDER SUNSHINE. WE WILL ADD ANOTHER SEVERAL
DEGREES FOR MEMORIAL DAY...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY DRY THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NEW YORK IN THE MORNING AND
AGAIN INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A WARM YET UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL TAKE
SHAPE TUESDAY ONWARD WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
7 AM EDT UPDATE...
SOME SPOTS GOT COLDER THAN FORECAST...INCLUDING ELMIRA INTO THE
MID 30S A FEW HOURS AGO...AND SEVERAL MESONET SITES IN CORTLAND-
CHENANGO-OTSEGO-DELAWARE COUNTIES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SO
COVERAGE OF PATCHY FROST ALSO WAS PROBABLY MORE THAN EXPECTED.
INVERSION IS QUITE SHALLOW AND REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES ARE NOW
UNDERWAY WITH THE SUN ALREADY OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UNLIKE 24 HOURS AGO WHEN IT TOOK QUITE AWHILE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO SET IN BECAUSE OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WIND...THIS TIME
THE COOLING WAS IMMEDIATE THANKS TO RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING OVER THE REGION. AT 1 AM TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY 40 IN
ITHACA- ELMIRA...AND 39 IN NORWICH-CORTLAND. HOWEVER...AIR MASS IS
ALREADY MODERATING AND DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO IN THE 30S INSTEAD OF
20S. THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...THERE MAY STILL BE
PATCHY FROST EARLY THIS MORNING IN SOME OF OUR TYPICALLY COLDEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING SPOTS...SUCH AS CHEMUNG AND UPPER CHENANGO
RIVER VALLEYS.

THE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BECOME QUITE OBVIOUS
TODAY...ONCE THE SUN ERADICATES THE SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE
INVERSION. COMBINED SUN AND WARMING WSW WIND WILL SURGE
TEMPERATURES TO MID-UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS TODAY...EVEN AROUND 80
FOR SOME LOWER ELEVATION LOCALES.

VERY WARM UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER FROM WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING...TO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...AND OVER OUR
REGION MONDAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SW TO NE
MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF HIGH-BASE/ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY MORNING...BUT
MEMORIAL DAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY FOR MAJORITY OF OUR AREA. THE BETTER
SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL DELAY UNTIL THE RIDGE AXIS CAN
PASS THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAKE US MORE VULNERABLE TO
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY VERY WARM, MOIST SW FLOW
SITUATED BETWEEN RIDGE AXIS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND
APPROACHING TROUGH.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD MONDAY EVENING, AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER TOP
OF RIDGE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING FROM OHIO AND S ONTARIO
EASTWARD WILL BE WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT COULD
STILL BRING A COUPLE SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE,
WARM, MOIST SW FLOW BRINGS INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
AND LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

FOR TUESDAY, RIDGE AXIS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE EAST SO CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED DAYTIME HEATING INDUCED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S WITH CONDITIONS FEELING QUITE HUMID AS DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE GENERAL TREND BEING FOR DAYTIME SHOWERS/STORMS TO DIMINISH AS
STRONGER FORCING TO KEEP STORMS GOING WILL STILL BE OFF TO THE
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
0330 AM UPDATE...MADE A FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING THAT FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY DRIER, COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY BEFORE
WARMER, MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TRY TO PUSH BACK IN BY FRIDAY. THUS,
LOWERED POPS, DEW POINTS, SKY COVER FOR THURSDAY. ALSO, STILL
EARLY BUT WEDNESDAY POTENTIALLY SHAPING UP TO BE
INTERESTING...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SHOWERS,
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS LOOK
TO BE QUITE HIGH WITH GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING SLOW MBE
VECTORS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PD BEGINS WITH A LRG RDG OVER THE SERN US
XTNDG UP INTO NEW ENG AND RISING HGTS UNDER A SW FLOW FOR THE FCST
AREA. AS WE GO THRU THE WEEK...THERE WILL BE S SLOW RETREAT OF THE
UPR RDG INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC WHILE THE MID WEST TROF SLOWLY
WEAKENS AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES EWRD.

SO...FOR THE DAY TO DAY FCST IN THE AREA...THE SW FLOW WILL BRING
WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. ALSO...WITH DAYTIME HTG
AND INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE SLOWLY ADVANCING TROF...THERE
WILL BE AN INCRSG CHANCE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THRU THE PD. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE WED AFTN AND AGAIN ON THU WITH MAX HTG AND THE TROF
NEARLY UPON US.

DAILY TEMPS WILL BE ABV NRML FOR THE AREA THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD...THOUGH HIGH THIN CLOUDS AT 20-25 KFT AGL
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
NY TERMINALS. VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WSW-W
8-12 KTS DURING THE DAY...BEFORE LIGHT SSE-S OR VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT A BRIEF PASSING -SHRA POSSIBLE KSYR-KRME.

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/DAYTIME TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MDP



000
FXUS61 KBGM 241100
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
700 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A COOL DAWN...WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S UNDER SUNSHINE. WE WILL ADD ANOTHER SEVERAL
DEGREES FOR MEMORIAL DAY...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY DRY THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NEW YORK IN THE MORNING AND
AGAIN INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A WARM YET UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL TAKE
SHAPE TUESDAY ONWARD WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
7 AM EDT UPDATE...
SOME SPOTS GOT COLDER THAN FORECAST...INCLUDING ELMIRA INTO THE
MID 30S A FEW HOURS AGO...AND SEVERAL MESONET SITES IN CORTLAND-
CHENANGO-OTSEGO-DELAWARE COUNTIES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SO
COVERAGE OF PATCHY FROST ALSO WAS PROBABLY MORE THAN EXPECTED.
INVERSION IS QUITE SHALLOW AND REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES ARE NOW
UNDERWAY WITH THE SUN ALREADY OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UNLIKE 24 HOURS AGO WHEN IT TOOK QUITE AWHILE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO SET IN BECAUSE OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WIND...THIS TIME
THE COOLING WAS IMMEDIATE THANKS TO RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING OVER THE REGION. AT 1 AM TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY 40 IN
ITHACA- ELMIRA...AND 39 IN NORWICH-CORTLAND. HOWEVER...AIR MASS IS
ALREADY MODERATING AND DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO IN THE 30S INSTEAD OF
20S. THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...THERE MAY STILL BE
PATCHY FROST EARLY THIS MORNING IN SOME OF OUR TYPICALLY COLDEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING SPOTS...SUCH AS CHEMUNG AND UPPER CHENANGO
RIVER VALLEYS.

THE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BECOME QUITE OBVIOUS
TODAY...ONCE THE SUN ERADICATES THE SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE
INVERSION. COMBINED SUN AND WARMING WSW WIND WILL SURGE
TEMPERATURES TO MID-UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS TODAY...EVEN AROUND 80
FOR SOME LOWER ELEVATION LOCALES.

VERY WARM UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER FROM WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING...TO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...AND OVER OUR
REGION MONDAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SW TO NE
MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF HIGH-BASE/ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY MORNING...BUT
MEMORIAL DAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY FOR MAJORITY OF OUR AREA. THE BETTER
SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL DELAY UNTIL THE RIDGE AXIS CAN
PASS THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAKE US MORE VULNERABLE TO
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY VERY WARM, MOIST SW FLOW
SITUATED BETWEEN RIDGE AXIS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND
APPROACHING TROUGH.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD MONDAY EVENING, AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER TOP
OF RIDGE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING FROM OHIO AND S ONTARIO
EASTWARD WILL BE WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT COULD
STILL BRING A COUPLE SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE,
WARM, MOIST SW FLOW BRINGS INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
AND LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

FOR TUESDAY, RIDGE AXIS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE EAST SO CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED DAYTIME HEATING INDUCED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S WITH CONDITIONS FEELING QUITE HUMID AS DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE GENERAL TREND BEING FOR DAYTIME SHOWERS/STORMS TO DIMINISH AS
STRONGER FORCING TO KEEP STORMS GOING WILL STILL BE OFF TO THE
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
0330 AM UPDATE...MADE A FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING THAT FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY DRIER, COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY BEFORE
WARMER, MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TRY TO PUSH BACK IN BY FRIDAY. THUS,
LOWERED POPS, DEW POINTS, SKY COVER FOR THURSDAY. ALSO, STILL
EARLY BUT WEDNESDAY POTENTIALLY SHAPING UP TO BE
INTERESTING...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SHOWERS,
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS LOOK
TO BE QUITE HIGH WITH GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING SLOW MBE
VECTORS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PD BEGINS WITH A LRG RDG OVER THE SERN US
XTNDG UP INTO NEW ENG AND RISING HGTS UNDER A SW FLOW FOR THE FCST
AREA. AS WE GO THRU THE WEEK...THERE WILL BE S SLOW RETREAT OF THE
UPR RDG INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC WHILE THE MID WEST TROF SLOWLY
WEAKENS AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES EWRD.

SO...FOR THE DAY TO DAY FCST IN THE AREA...THE SW FLOW WILL BRING
WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. ALSO...WITH DAYTIME HTG
AND INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE SLOWLY ADVANCING TROF...THERE
WILL BE AN INCRSG CHANCE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THRU THE PD. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE WED AFTN AND AGAIN ON THU WITH MAX HTG AND THE TROF
NEARLY UPON US.

DAILY TEMPS WILL BE ABV NRML FOR THE AREA THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD...THOUGH HIGH THIN CLOUDS AT 20-25 KFT AGL
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
NY TERMINALS. VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WSW-W
8-12 KTS DURING THE DAY...BEFORE LIGHT SSE-S OR VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT A BRIEF PASSING -SHRA POSSIBLE KSYR-KRME.

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/DAYTIME TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 241100
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
700 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A COOL DAWN...WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S UNDER SUNSHINE. WE WILL ADD ANOTHER SEVERAL
DEGREES FOR MEMORIAL DAY...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY DRY THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NEW YORK IN THE MORNING AND
AGAIN INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A WARM YET UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL TAKE
SHAPE TUESDAY ONWARD WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
7 AM EDT UPDATE...
SOME SPOTS GOT COLDER THAN FORECAST...INCLUDING ELMIRA INTO THE
MID 30S A FEW HOURS AGO...AND SEVERAL MESONET SITES IN CORTLAND-
CHENANGO-OTSEGO-DELAWARE COUNTIES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SO
COVERAGE OF PATCHY FROST ALSO WAS PROBABLY MORE THAN EXPECTED.
INVERSION IS QUITE SHALLOW AND REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES ARE NOW
UNDERWAY WITH THE SUN ALREADY OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UNLIKE 24 HOURS AGO WHEN IT TOOK QUITE AWHILE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO SET IN BECAUSE OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WIND...THIS TIME
THE COOLING WAS IMMEDIATE THANKS TO RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING OVER THE REGION. AT 1 AM TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY 40 IN
ITHACA- ELMIRA...AND 39 IN NORWICH-CORTLAND. HOWEVER...AIR MASS IS
ALREADY MODERATING AND DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO IN THE 30S INSTEAD OF
20S. THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...THERE MAY STILL BE
PATCHY FROST EARLY THIS MORNING IN SOME OF OUR TYPICALLY COLDEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING SPOTS...SUCH AS CHEMUNG AND UPPER CHENANGO
RIVER VALLEYS.

THE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BECOME QUITE OBVIOUS
TODAY...ONCE THE SUN ERADICATES THE SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE
INVERSION. COMBINED SUN AND WARMING WSW WIND WILL SURGE
TEMPERATURES TO MID-UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS TODAY...EVEN AROUND 80
FOR SOME LOWER ELEVATION LOCALES.

VERY WARM UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER FROM WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING...TO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...AND OVER OUR
REGION MONDAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SW TO NE
MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF HIGH-BASE/ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY MORNING...BUT
MEMORIAL DAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY FOR MAJORITY OF OUR AREA. THE BETTER
SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL DELAY UNTIL THE RIDGE AXIS CAN
PASS THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAKE US MORE VULNERABLE TO
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY VERY WARM, MOIST SW FLOW
SITUATED BETWEEN RIDGE AXIS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND
APPROACHING TROUGH.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD MONDAY EVENING, AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER TOP
OF RIDGE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING FROM OHIO AND S ONTARIO
EASTWARD WILL BE WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT COULD
STILL BRING A COUPLE SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE,
WARM, MOIST SW FLOW BRINGS INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
AND LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

FOR TUESDAY, RIDGE AXIS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE EAST SO CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED DAYTIME HEATING INDUCED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S WITH CONDITIONS FEELING QUITE HUMID AS DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE GENERAL TREND BEING FOR DAYTIME SHOWERS/STORMS TO DIMINISH AS
STRONGER FORCING TO KEEP STORMS GOING WILL STILL BE OFF TO THE
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
0330 AM UPDATE...MADE A FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING THAT FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY DRIER, COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY BEFORE
WARMER, MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TRY TO PUSH BACK IN BY FRIDAY. THUS,
LOWERED POPS, DEW POINTS, SKY COVER FOR THURSDAY. ALSO, STILL
EARLY BUT WEDNESDAY POTENTIALLY SHAPING UP TO BE
INTERESTING...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SHOWERS,
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS LOOK
TO BE QUITE HIGH WITH GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING SLOW MBE
VECTORS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PD BEGINS WITH A LRG RDG OVER THE SERN US
XTNDG UP INTO NEW ENG AND RISING HGTS UNDER A SW FLOW FOR THE FCST
AREA. AS WE GO THRU THE WEEK...THERE WILL BE S SLOW RETREAT OF THE
UPR RDG INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC WHILE THE MID WEST TROF SLOWLY
WEAKENS AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES EWRD.

SO...FOR THE DAY TO DAY FCST IN THE AREA...THE SW FLOW WILL BRING
WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. ALSO...WITH DAYTIME HTG
AND INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE SLOWLY ADVANCING TROF...THERE
WILL BE AN INCRSG CHANCE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THRU THE PD. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE WED AFTN AND AGAIN ON THU WITH MAX HTG AND THE TROF
NEARLY UPON US.

DAILY TEMPS WILL BE ABV NRML FOR THE AREA THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD...THOUGH HIGH THIN CLOUDS AT 20-25 KFT AGL
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
NY TERMINALS. VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WSW-W
8-12 KTS DURING THE DAY...BEFORE LIGHT SSE-S OR VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT A BRIEF PASSING -SHRA POSSIBLE KSYR-KRME.

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/DAYTIME TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 241100
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
700 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A COOL DAWN...WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S UNDER SUNSHINE. WE WILL ADD ANOTHER SEVERAL
DEGREES FOR MEMORIAL DAY...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY DRY THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NEW YORK IN THE MORNING AND
AGAIN INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A WARM YET UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL TAKE
SHAPE TUESDAY ONWARD WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
7 AM EDT UPDATE...
SOME SPOTS GOT COLDER THAN FORECAST...INCLUDING ELMIRA INTO THE
MID 30S A FEW HOURS AGO...AND SEVERAL MESONET SITES IN CORTLAND-
CHENANGO-OTSEGO-DELAWARE COUNTIES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SO
COVERAGE OF PATCHY FROST ALSO WAS PROBABLY MORE THAN EXPECTED.
INVERSION IS QUITE SHALLOW AND REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES ARE NOW
UNDERWAY WITH THE SUN ALREADY OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UNLIKE 24 HOURS AGO WHEN IT TOOK QUITE AWHILE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO SET IN BECAUSE OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WIND...THIS TIME
THE COOLING WAS IMMEDIATE THANKS TO RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING OVER THE REGION. AT 1 AM TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY 40 IN
ITHACA- ELMIRA...AND 39 IN NORWICH-CORTLAND. HOWEVER...AIR MASS IS
ALREADY MODERATING AND DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO IN THE 30S INSTEAD OF
20S. THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...THERE MAY STILL BE
PATCHY FROST EARLY THIS MORNING IN SOME OF OUR TYPICALLY COLDEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING SPOTS...SUCH AS CHEMUNG AND UPPER CHENANGO
RIVER VALLEYS.

THE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BECOME QUITE OBVIOUS
TODAY...ONCE THE SUN ERADICATES THE SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE
INVERSION. COMBINED SUN AND WARMING WSW WIND WILL SURGE
TEMPERATURES TO MID-UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS TODAY...EVEN AROUND 80
FOR SOME LOWER ELEVATION LOCALES.

VERY WARM UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER FROM WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING...TO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...AND OVER OUR
REGION MONDAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SW TO NE
MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF HIGH-BASE/ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY MORNING...BUT
MEMORIAL DAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY FOR MAJORITY OF OUR AREA. THE BETTER
SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL DELAY UNTIL THE RIDGE AXIS CAN
PASS THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAKE US MORE VULNERABLE TO
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY VERY WARM, MOIST SW FLOW
SITUATED BETWEEN RIDGE AXIS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND
APPROACHING TROUGH.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD MONDAY EVENING, AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER TOP
OF RIDGE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING FROM OHIO AND S ONTARIO
EASTWARD WILL BE WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT COULD
STILL BRING A COUPLE SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE,
WARM, MOIST SW FLOW BRINGS INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
AND LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

FOR TUESDAY, RIDGE AXIS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE EAST SO CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED DAYTIME HEATING INDUCED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S WITH CONDITIONS FEELING QUITE HUMID AS DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE 60S.

ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE GENERAL TREND BEING FOR DAYTIME SHOWERS/STORMS TO DIMINISH AS
STRONGER FORCING TO KEEP STORMS GOING WILL STILL BE OFF TO THE
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
0330 AM UPDATE...MADE A FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING THAT FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY DRIER, COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY BEFORE
WARMER, MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TRY TO PUSH BACK IN BY FRIDAY. THUS,
LOWERED POPS, DEW POINTS, SKY COVER FOR THURSDAY. ALSO, STILL
EARLY BUT WEDNESDAY POTENTIALLY SHAPING UP TO BE
INTERESTING...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SHOWERS,
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS LOOK
TO BE QUITE HIGH WITH GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING SLOW MBE
VECTORS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PD BEGINS WITH A LRG RDG OVER THE SERN US
XTNDG UP INTO NEW ENG AND RISING HGTS UNDER A SW FLOW FOR THE FCST
AREA. AS WE GO THRU THE WEEK...THERE WILL BE S SLOW RETREAT OF THE
UPR RDG INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC WHILE THE MID WEST TROF SLOWLY
WEAKENS AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES EWRD.

SO...FOR THE DAY TO DAY FCST IN THE AREA...THE SW FLOW WILL BRING
WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. ALSO...WITH DAYTIME HTG
AND INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE SLOWLY ADVANCING TROF...THERE
WILL BE AN INCRSG CHANCE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS THRU THE PD. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE WED AFTN AND AGAIN ON THU WITH MAX HTG AND THE TROF
NEARLY UPON US.

DAILY TEMPS WILL BE ABV NRML FOR THE AREA THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD...THOUGH HIGH THIN CLOUDS AT 20-25 KFT AGL
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
NY TERMINALS. VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WSW-W
8-12 KTS DURING THE DAY...BEFORE LIGHT SSE-S OR VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT A BRIEF PASSING -SHRA POSSIBLE KSYR-KRME.

TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/DAYTIME TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MDP



000
FXUS61 KALY 241046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
646 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 646 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...AND TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RISE AS THE
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK WARM
FRONT THAT GRAZED NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE
STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MIDWEST. OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECWMF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE FL AND
LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT
IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN CATSKILLS...NRN
BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED BY
THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE
0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.  PWAT
VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO. THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI
CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S
COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA...KGFL...EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT PASSES
TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT EASTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING A HOLD ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AS A PIECE ENERGY
RIDES OVER THE TOP.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
     HIGH HAINES INDEX EXPECTED AS WELL AS A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 241046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
646 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 646 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...AND TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RISE AS THE
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK WARM
FRONT THAT GRAZED NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE
STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MIDWEST. OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECWMF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE FL AND
LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT
IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN CATSKILLS...NRN
BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED BY
THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE
0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.  PWAT
VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO. THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI
CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S
COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA...KGFL...EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT PASSES
TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT EASTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING A HOLD ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AS A PIECE ENERGY
RIDES OVER THE TOP.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
     HIGH HAINES INDEX EXPECTED AS WELL AS A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 240905
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
505 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED S/SE OF LONG
ISLAND AND THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS
GRAZING NRN NEW ENGLAND TIED TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
SE CANADA. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING.

TEMPS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY FROM THE M30S TO U40S WITH THE SFC HIGH
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR WILL
COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
COUPLED WITH THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE
SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHTS
INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST.
OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MUCH
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECWMF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE FL AND
LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT
IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN CATSKILLS...NRN
BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED BY
THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE
0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.  PWAT
VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO. THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI
CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S
COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUN