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000
FXUS61 KOKX 290100
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
900 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west this evening, then
slowly cross the Tri-State through Wednesday. Weak high pressure
builds in Wednesday night through Friday. A cold front then
approaches and moves across the area late Friday night and Saturday.
High pressure builds in behind the front from Saturday night through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The forecast has been updated to adjust the probability of
precipitation where thunderstorms are imminent or occurring. An
axis of heavy rainfall appears to be coming together across the
Hudson Valley into northern New Jersey.

The fog bank remains positioned along the south shore of Long
Island into New York City, with reduced visibilities being
reported at John F Kennedy Airport. Will maintain patchy fog in
the forecast for the overnight.

The timing of the entire system has been slowed slightly from the
previous forecast, and the expectation is that the thunderstorms
will hold together slightly longer due to the position of the
upper jet.

For lows tonight, a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter
temperatures was used, with values forecast to be a few degrees
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Core of 700-500 hPa trough lifts NE into eastern Quebec Wednesday,
taking the best dynamics with it. Best jet forcing will be in the
morning with the region in the right rear quadrant of a 75-80 KT 300
hPa jet and having a 50 KT 500 hPa jet pass over western
portions. However, the mid levels are forecast to be rather dry,
along with a cap centered around 650 hPa, with these likely being
the limiting factors in any convective development. For now have
slight chance pops across the N tier of the CWA Wednesday (area
closest to the best dynamic forcing), mainly E of the Hudson
River, with a dry forecast elsewhere.

Highs Wednesday were based on a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance, NAM
2-meter, and a mix down from 950-800 hPa per BUFKIT soundings.
Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal, except near normal
in the immediate NYC Metro area.

The main 700-500 hPa trough axis exits to the east Wednesday
evening, with drier air working in behind it in the low levels, to
go with the already dry air aloft. As a result, expect any cloud
cover to clear out overnight, with decent radiational cooling
setting up. Based on this, lows were weighed towards coolest of
MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter temperatures at any given
point outside of urban areas. Lows should be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds across the area on Thursday and Friday. A
cold front will move through the area late on Friday night and into
early Saturday, brining showers and the potential for some
thunderstorms. High pressure builds behind the front Sunday and
remains through the holiday weekend.

Temperatures during the extended period will be near normal for this
time of year, with temperatures during the day in the low to mid 80s
and low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An approaching cold front passes through the region late tonight
into Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds around 10KT into early tonight will become light and
variable later tonight until the frontal passage Wednesday morning.
Then winds become more NW and will stay light with therefore sea
breeze formation Wednesday afternoon for coastal terminals. Though
there is more uncertainty with wind directions Wednesday
afternoon with therefore a low confidence forecast that
timeframe.

Conditions will become mostly IFR/LIFR this evening and continue
into early Wednesday morning. Highest chances for showers and
thunderstorms will be in the 01Z-06Z timeframe for most NYC
terminals as well as those to the N/W. Chances remain to the east
thereafter but mainly for showers with a lower chance for
thunderstorms. After the frontal passage Wednesday, conditions
gradually improve to VFR.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: TSRA possible before 04z. VLIFR is possible at
times tonight. End time of LIFR/IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KLGA TAF Comments: End time of LIFR/IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of IFR/LIFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KTEB TAF Comments: End time of LIFR/IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KHPN TAF Comments: End time of LIFR/IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KISP TAF Comments: TSRA possible 04-06Z. End time of LIFR/IFR
could be 1-3 hours off.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday night through Friday morning...VFR.
.Friday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in
showers/tstms.
.Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Added patchy fog to the ocean and South Shore Bays tonight.
Otherwise, a relaxed pressure gradient over the waters around
Long Island will keep winds at 10 kt or less through Wednesday
night. With no significant swells forecast, seas/waves should be 3
ft or less as well during this time frame.

Winds and seas are forecast to remain below small craft advisory
levels Thursday through the holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
From 1/6-1/2 inch of rain is forecast through tonight, with
locally higher amounts possible mainly west of the Hudson River.
Areas that do experience locally heavy rainfall could experience
minor flooding of urban/poor drainage areas with a very small
chance of localized flash flooding. However, most areas will
receive no hydrologic impact from this rainfall.

No significant rainfall is expected from Wednesday through Friday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late Friday night
and into early Saturday. Antecedent conditions are very dry, so
widespread hydrology issues are not expected.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/Maloit
NEAR TERM...JMC/Maloit
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JC/JM
MARINE...JMC/FIG/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...FIG/Maloit



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 290008
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
808 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will continue to move across the North
tonight, triggering heavy rain showers and scattered strong
thunderstorms especially across the champlain valley and vermont.
Scattered showers linger into Wednesday as an upper trough swings
through, but the end of the work week will see a return of warm
and dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 755 PM EDT Tuesday...with the exception of a rogue severe
t-storm over st lawrence county ny as I type this discussion, the
threat for severe weather is diminishing as surface instability is
decreasing. the threat for locally heavy rain is not over just yet
however.

in general, things are going according to forecast. we have a band
of showers and thunderstorms stretching from north-central VT
southwestward into the Albany NY area and then southward from
there. With the deep southwest flow, the eastward progress of this
band has been slow. still have convection to the south that will
ride up to the northeast within the convective band, giving the
potential for additional localized heavy rains in areas that have
seen rain already. just how much the convection will keep going is
a little uncertain. some hi-res meso models do hint that activity
will keep on going through about midnight in association with the
passage of an upper level shortwave.

luckily, it was dry to begin with, and the footprints of the
heaviest of rain has been rather small. thus the various small
stream basins have, for the most part, not been overwhelmed. we
will continue to maintain a close watch of radar trends, because
in some locations we`ve had rainfall totals that have touched our
flash flood guidance thresholds. this includes a 2.90" of rain in
just 75 minutes in Eden Mills VT a little while ago.

in general, the tweaks to the forecast were based on the latest
radar/satellite/model trends, but overall the forecast concept
didn`t change. any heavy rainfall will be through midnight, with
residual showers across Vermont decreasing after midnight.
Possibility for some patchy fog later tonight, though part of that
will depend up on how much clearing may develop.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240PM EDT Tuesday... Upper trough centered across vt on
wednesday with some diurnal heating accounting for some sct -shra
and possible tsra...esp in eastern vt wednesday afternoon. surface
high pressure moves in wed ngt and continues through thursday
night. Dry weather with seasonable temperatures on thu and some
valley fog possible wed night and to lesser extent thu night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH tuesday/...
As of 240 PM EDT Tuesday...important holiday weekend forecast and
for the most part it looks good for holiday celebrations.

Another northern stream upper trough rotates across eastern great
lakes into north country late fri-fri ngt-sat morning. Airmass
more stable thus not impacts as witnessing/expected today/tonight
but enough heating for some showers and possible thunderstorms
late fri (esp ny) and showers fri ngt and some leftover showers
esp in northern sections on sat.

On sunday...still under the influence of closed low in northern
quebec and cyclonic flow across area. Models differ slightly on
the resultant outcome but cant rule out a possible shower sun aftn
but thunder not expected.

On monday...upper low and trough axis shifting ene away from area
thus should be sunny...dry and seasonable and this will continue
into tuesday as well.

Therefore...not expecting any heat related issues nor thunderstorm
concerns for holiday festivities at this time but always remember
to check the latest forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 00Z thursday...tried to time the potential for tsra at
various terminals through 02-03z. after that, should be only
showers and primarily for vermont locations through about 06z.
after that, looking at patchy fog with ifr conditions. guidance
doesn`t provide a clear answer, and whether a location gets any
fog will depend on how much the clouds clear out later tonight. at
this point, think the better chance will be across northern new
york (mainly SLK, but perhaps PBG) where there should be a little
more in the way of breaks in the clouds. for wednesday, expect
additional showers/isolated thunderstorm development during the
afternoon. primarily hit or miss (mostly miss), so kept VFR in the
TAFs, though any shower will bring MVFR conditions.

Outlook 00z thursday through Saturday...

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with IFR/LIFR radiational
fog at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

Saturday onward...VFR/MVFR with chances for scattered showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 235 PM EDT Tuesday... Risk of heavy rainfall remains in
place for rest of this afteroon/tonight. Low-level wind fields
parallel to the cold front should lead to training of convective
cells, and if persistent enough may trigger areas of isolated
flash flooding. PWAT values are not excessively high but are
around 1.4-1.6". Flash flood guidance (FFG) is also fairly high
given the relative dryness of late. 1 hour FFG is roughly
1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is 2.3-3.0". It might be hard to see that
amount of rain in just 1 hour, but if we`ve got a slow moving line
with repeated cells moving across an area for 3 hours, that 3 hour
FFG is not too hard to achieve. Any flash flooding would be
localized to small basins or small urban and mountainous
locations. Larger main-stem river flooding is not expected.
Forecast QPF values through tonight range from 1 to 1.5", but
could be higher in more localized and persistent cell training.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...Nash
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Nash/SLW
HYDROLOGY...Loconto/slw




000
FXUS61 KBTV 290008
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
808 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will continue to move across the North
tonight, triggering heavy rain showers and scattered strong
thunderstorms especially across the champlain valley and vermont.
Scattered showers linger into Wednesday as an upper trough swings
through, but the end of the work week will see a return of warm
and dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 755 PM EDT Tuesday...with the exception of a rogue severe
t-storm over st lawrence county ny as I type this discussion, the
threat for severe weather is diminishing as surface instability is
decreasing. the threat for locally heavy rain is not over just yet
however.

in general, things are going according to forecast. we have a band
of showers and thunderstorms stretching from north-central VT
southwestward into the Albany NY area and then southward from
there. With the deep southwest flow, the eastward progress of this
band has been slow. still have convection to the south that will
ride up to the northeast within the convective band, giving the
potential for additional localized heavy rains in areas that have
seen rain already. just how much the convection will keep going is
a little uncertain. some hi-res meso models do hint that activity
will keep on going through about midnight in association with the
passage of an upper level shortwave.

luckily, it was dry to begin with, and the footprints of the
heaviest of rain has been rather small. thus the various small
stream basins have, for the most part, not been overwhelmed. we
will continue to maintain a close watch of radar trends, because
in some locations we`ve had rainfall totals that have touched our
flash flood guidance thresholds. this includes a 2.90" of rain in
just 75 minutes in Eden Mills VT a little while ago.

in general, the tweaks to the forecast were based on the latest
radar/satellite/model trends, but overall the forecast concept
didn`t change. any heavy rainfall will be through midnight, with
residual showers across Vermont decreasing after midnight.
Possibility for some patchy fog later tonight, though part of that
will depend up on how much clearing may develop.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240PM EDT Tuesday... Upper trough centered across vt on
wednesday with some diurnal heating accounting for some sct -shra
and possible tsra...esp in eastern vt wednesday afternoon. surface
high pressure moves in wed ngt and continues through thursday
night. Dry weather with seasonable temperatures on thu and some
valley fog possible wed night and to lesser extent thu night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH tuesday/...
As of 240 PM EDT Tuesday...important holiday weekend forecast and
for the most part it looks good for holiday celebrations.

Another northern stream upper trough rotates across eastern great
lakes into north country late fri-fri ngt-sat morning. Airmass
more stable thus not impacts as witnessing/expected today/tonight
but enough heating for some showers and possible thunderstorms
late fri (esp ny) and showers fri ngt and some leftover showers
esp in northern sections on sat.

On sunday...still under the influence of closed low in northern
quebec and cyclonic flow across area. Models differ slightly on
the resultant outcome but cant rule out a possible shower sun aftn
but thunder not expected.

On monday...upper low and trough axis shifting ene away from area
thus should be sunny...dry and seasonable and this will continue
into tuesday as well.

Therefore...not expecting any heat related issues nor thunderstorm
concerns for holiday festivities at this time but always remember
to check the latest forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 00Z thursday...tried to time the potential for tsra at
various terminals through 02-03z. after that, should be only
showers and primarily for vermont locations through about 06z.
after that, looking at patchy fog with ifr conditions. guidance
doesn`t provide a clear answer, and whether a location gets any
fog will depend on how much the clouds clear out later tonight. at
this point, think the better chance will be across northern new
york (mainly SLK, but perhaps PBG) where there should be a little
more in the way of breaks in the clouds. for wednesday, expect
additional showers/isolated thunderstorm development during the
afternoon. primarily hit or miss (mostly miss), so kept VFR in the
TAFs, though any shower will bring MVFR conditions.

Outlook 00z thursday through Saturday...

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with IFR/LIFR radiational
fog at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

Saturday onward...VFR/MVFR with chances for scattered showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 235 PM EDT Tuesday... Risk of heavy rainfall remains in
place for rest of this afteroon/tonight. Low-level wind fields
parallel to the cold front should lead to training of convective
cells, and if persistent enough may trigger areas of isolated
flash flooding. PWAT values are not excessively high but are
around 1.4-1.6". Flash flood guidance (FFG) is also fairly high
given the relative dryness of late. 1 hour FFG is roughly
1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is 2.3-3.0". It might be hard to see that
amount of rain in just 1 hour, but if we`ve got a slow moving line
with repeated cells moving across an area for 3 hours, that 3 hour
FFG is not too hard to achieve. Any flash flooding would be
localized to small basins or small urban and mountainous
locations. Larger main-stem river flooding is not expected.
Forecast QPF values through tonight range from 1 to 1.5", but
could be higher in more localized and persistent cell training.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...Nash
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Nash/SLW
HYDROLOGY...Loconto/slw




000
FXUS61 KOKX 282359
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
759 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west this evening, then
slowly cross the Tri-State through Wednesday. Weak high pressure
builds in Wednesday night through Friday. A cold front then
approaches and moves across the area late Friday night and Saturday.
High pressure builds in behind the front from Saturday night through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Added some patchy fog to the southern portions of Long Island and
New York City, as cameras have shown a fog bank offshore.
Otherwise, 700-500 hPa trough builds into the region tonight, as
an 850 hPa cold front moves into, then stalls over the area as it
becomes parallel to fairly weak flow at 850 hPa.

Should see showers, with maybe some embedded thunderstorms slowly build
into far western zones this evening, then spread eastward mainly
after midnight per latest high resolution model runs. CAPE of
500-1000 J/kg limited late this afternoon to W of the Hudson
River, with CAPE quickly diminishing after 00z. However, do have
showalter indices around 0 this evening throughout, hence at
least a slight chance of thunder everywhere. It does appear that
even the instability aloft diminishes after midnight, so have gone
over to just showers overnight.

Region remains under slight risk of severe storms tonight over
Orange County with a marginal risk just to the east, mainly for
areas W of the Hudson River. However, bulk shear remains below 20
kt, outside of Orange County where it is 25-30kt, until the CAPE
subsides, so Severe threat likely will be contained in Orange
County. However, will continue to highlight both Slight and
Marginal risk areas in the HWO, with the main threat strong gusty
winds. Also, with precipitable waters forecast over W zones to
reach upwards of 1.25 inches, could see some locally heavy
rainfall as well. See the hydrology section of the AFD for
details.

For lows tonight, a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter
temperatures was used, with values forecast to be a few degrees
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Core of 700-500 hPa trough lifts NE into eastern Quebec Wednesday,
taking the best dynamics with it. Best jet forcing will be in the
morning with the region in the right rear quadrant of a 75-80 KT 300
hPa jet and having a 50 KT 500 hPa jet pass over western
portions. However, the mid levels are forecast to be rather dry,
along with a cap centered around 650 hPa, with these likely being
the limiting factors in any convective development. For now have
slight chance pops across the N tier of the CWA Wednesday (area
closest to the best dynamic forcing), mainly E of the Hudson
River, with a dry forecast elsewhere.

Highs Wednesday were based on a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance, NAM
2-meter, and a mix down from 950-800 hPa per BUFKIT soundings.
Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal, except near normal
in the immediate NYC Metro area.

The main 700-500 hPa trough axis exits to the east Wednesday
evening, with drier air working in behind it in the low levels, to
go with the already dry air aloft. As a result, expect any cloud
cover to clear out overnight, with decent radiational cooling
setting up. Based on this, lows were weighed towards coolest of
MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter temperatures at any given
point outside of urban areas. Lows should be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds across the area on Thursday and Friday. A
cold front will move through the area late on Friday night and into
early Saturday, brining showers and the potential for some
thunderstorms. High pressure builds behind the front Sunday and
remains through the holiday weekend.

Temperatures during the extended period will be near normal for this
time of year, with temperatures during the day in the low to mid 80s
and low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An approaching cold front passes through the region late tonight
into Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds around 10KT into early tonight will become light and
variable later tonight until the frontal passage Wednesday morning.
Then winds become more NW and will stay light with therefore sea
breeze formation Wednesday afternoon for coastal terminals. Though
there is more uncertainty with wind directions Wednesday
afternoon with therefore a low confidence forecast that
timeframe.

Conditions will become mostly IFR/LIFR this evening and continue
into early Wednesday morning. Highest chances for showers will be
in the 02Z-06Z timeframe for NYC terminals as well as those to
the N/W. Chances remain to the east thereafter. Thunderstorms are
only forecast to be sparse in coverage early this evening so with
much uncertainty in exact timing and placement, these were not
included in TAFs. After the frontal passage Wednesday, conditions
gradually improve to VFR.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: VLIFR is possible at times tonight. End time of
LIFR/IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KLGA TAF Comments: End time of LIFR/IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of IFR/LIFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KTEB TAF Comments: End time of LIFR/IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KHPN TAF Comments: End time of LIFR/IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KISP TAF Comments: End time of LIFR/IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday night through Friday morning...VFR.
.Friday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in
showers/tstms.
.Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Added patchy fog to the ocean and South Shore Bays tonight.
Otherwise, a relaxed pressure gradient over the waters around
Long Island will keep winds at 10 kt or less through Wednesday
night. With no significant swells forecast, seas/waves should be 3
ft or less as well during this time frame.

Winds and seas are forecast to remain below small craft advisory
levels Thursday through the holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
From 1/6-1/2 inch of rain is forecast through tonight, with
locally higher amounts possible mainly west of the Hudson River.
Areas that do experience locally heavy rainfall could experience
minor flooding of urban/poor drainage areas with a very small
chance of localized flash flooding. However, most areas will
receive no hydrologic impact from this rainfall.

No significant rainfall is expected from Wednesday through Friday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late Friday night
and into early Saturday. Antecedent conditions are very dry, so
widespread hydrology issues are not expected.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/Maloit
NEAR TERM...JMC/Maloit
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/FIG/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...FIG/Maloit




000
FXUS61 KOKX 282359
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
759 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west this evening, then
slowly cross the Tri-State through Wednesday. Weak high pressure
builds in Wednesday night through Friday. A cold front then
approaches and moves across the area late Friday night and Saturday.
High pressure builds in behind the front from Saturday night through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Added some patchy fog to the southern portions of Long Island and
New York City, as cameras have shown a fog bank offshore.
Otherwise, 700-500 hPa trough builds into the region tonight, as
an 850 hPa cold front moves into, then stalls over the area as it
becomes parallel to fairly weak flow at 850 hPa.

Should see showers, with maybe some embedded thunderstorms slowly build
into far western zones this evening, then spread eastward mainly
after midnight per latest high resolution model runs. CAPE of
500-1000 J/kg limited late this afternoon to W of the Hudson
River, with CAPE quickly diminishing after 00z. However, do have
showalter indices around 0 this evening throughout, hence at
least a slight chance of thunder everywhere. It does appear that
even the instability aloft diminishes after midnight, so have gone
over to just showers overnight.

Region remains under slight risk of severe storms tonight over
Orange County with a marginal risk just to the east, mainly for
areas W of the Hudson River. However, bulk shear remains below 20
kt, outside of Orange County where it is 25-30kt, until the CAPE
subsides, so Severe threat likely will be contained in Orange
County. However, will continue to highlight both Slight and
Marginal risk areas in the HWO, with the main threat strong gusty
winds. Also, with precipitable waters forecast over W zones to
reach upwards of 1.25 inches, could see some locally heavy
rainfall as well. See the hydrology section of the AFD for
details.

For lows tonight, a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter
temperatures was used, with values forecast to be a few degrees
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Core of 700-500 hPa trough lifts NE into eastern Quebec Wednesday,
taking the best dynamics with it. Best jet forcing will be in the
morning with the region in the right rear quadrant of a 75-80 KT 300
hPa jet and having a 50 KT 500 hPa jet pass over western
portions. However, the mid levels are forecast to be rather dry,
along with a cap centered around 650 hPa, with these likely being
the limiting factors in any convective development. For now have
slight chance pops across the N tier of the CWA Wednesday (area
closest to the best dynamic forcing), mainly E of the Hudson
River, with a dry forecast elsewhere.

Highs Wednesday were based on a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance, NAM
2-meter, and a mix down from 950-800 hPa per BUFKIT soundings.
Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal, except near normal
in the immediate NYC Metro area.

The main 700-500 hPa trough axis exits to the east Wednesday
evening, with drier air working in behind it in the low levels, to
go with the already dry air aloft. As a result, expect any cloud
cover to clear out overnight, with decent radiational cooling
setting up. Based on this, lows were weighed towards coolest of
MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter temperatures at any given
point outside of urban areas. Lows should be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds across the area on Thursday and Friday. A
cold front will move through the area late on Friday night and into
early Saturday, brining showers and the potential for some
thunderstorms. High pressure builds behind the front Sunday and
remains through the holiday weekend.

Temperatures during the extended period will be near normal for this
time of year, with temperatures during the day in the low to mid 80s
and low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An approaching cold front passes through the region late tonight
into Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds around 10KT into early tonight will become light and
variable later tonight until the frontal passage Wednesday morning.
Then winds become more NW and will stay light with therefore sea
breeze formation Wednesday afternoon for coastal terminals. Though
there is more uncertainty with wind directions Wednesday
afternoon with therefore a low confidence forecast that
timeframe.

Conditions will become mostly IFR/LIFR this evening and continue
into early Wednesday morning. Highest chances for showers will be
in the 02Z-06Z timeframe for NYC terminals as well as those to
the N/W. Chances remain to the east thereafter. Thunderstorms are
only forecast to be sparse in coverage early this evening so with
much uncertainty in exact timing and placement, these were not
included in TAFs. After the frontal passage Wednesday, conditions
gradually improve to VFR.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: VLIFR is possible at times tonight. End time of
LIFR/IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KLGA TAF Comments: End time of LIFR/IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of IFR/LIFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KTEB TAF Comments: End time of LIFR/IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KHPN TAF Comments: End time of LIFR/IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KISP TAF Comments: End time of LIFR/IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday night through Friday morning...VFR.
.Friday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in
showers/tstms.
.Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Added patchy fog to the ocean and South Shore Bays tonight.
Otherwise, a relaxed pressure gradient over the waters around
Long Island will keep winds at 10 kt or less through Wednesday
night. With no significant swells forecast, seas/waves should be 3
ft or less as well during this time frame.

Winds and seas are forecast to remain below small craft advisory
levels Thursday through the holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
From 1/6-1/2 inch of rain is forecast through tonight, with
locally higher amounts possible mainly west of the Hudson River.
Areas that do experience locally heavy rainfall could experience
minor flooding of urban/poor drainage areas with a very small
chance of localized flash flooding. However, most areas will
receive no hydrologic impact from this rainfall.

No significant rainfall is expected from Wednesday through Friday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late Friday night
and into early Saturday. Antecedent conditions are very dry, so
widespread hydrology issues are not expected.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/Maloit
NEAR TERM...JMC/Maloit
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/FIG/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...FIG/Maloit



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBUF 282347
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
747 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move into Eastern New York this evening. Behind
the front, there will be a chance of showers across the North
Country on Wednesday. Otherwise, cooler and less humid conditions
will be found through the middle of the week. A return to warmer
weather is expected by Friday, along with the next chance of rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
There are a few very, very isolated showers this evening as an
upper level trough approaches the region. These showers, too
sparse to mention in the area-averaged zone forecast but covered
in the gridded data, are partly tied to weakening lake breeze
boundaries and continued weak low level cold air advection.
Showers are likely too small to drop much more than a trace at
any location...hence the very low probability of measurable
precipitation.

As the trough moves overhead, there may be a few more showers,
but these too should be fairly sparse with a minimal QPF. Will
keep a low threat...primarily for the Eastern Lake Ontario region
tonight. Low temps will settle into the 50s with the cooler
reading occuring in the cooler Southern Tier where drier air is
found.

On Wednesday the trough and associated cyclonic flow combined with
some wraparound moisture will bring a chance of showers east of
Lake Ontario. Expect a mix of clouds and sun in most areas with
cooler air aloft promoting plenty of afternoon cumulus. Drier air
arriving with incoming high pressure should bring more in the way
of sunshine later in the afternoon. Temperatures and humidity
levels will remain very comfortable with highs in the mid 70s
across lower elevations and around 70 in the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A trough will exit into New England on Wednesday night, with any
lingering showers across the North Country tapering off Wednesday
evening. A ridge of high pressure across the Ohio Valley will
expand into the region behind this with skies clearing from west
to east. This combined with light winds will allow for good
radiational cooling. Expect lows in the lower to mid 50s on the
lake plains with mid 40s in some of the cooler Southern Tier
valleys.

High pressure will build across the lower lakes Thursday with
associated subsidence and dry air supporting plenty of sunshine. The
airmass will quickly moderate with highs back into the lower 80s
across lower elevations. High pressure will drift slowly towards the
east coast Thursday night with the mainly clear skies and overnight
lows in the 50s.

A closed 500 mb low near James Bay is forecast to push a trough
across our region on Friday. There will be a weak cold front with
this, with a weak warm front expected to stay to our southeast. The
more organized large scale ascent will remain north of the Canadian
border with limited convergence and moisture along the trailing
surface cold front which will move across our area. Local lake
breeze boundaries will likely end up producing better convergence
than the cold front itself, with widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible Friday afternoon and evening. Model QPF to
our south and east is likely associated with the weak warm front,
but model consensus generally keeps this out of our cwa.  The sparse
areal coverage will probably not alleviate the dry soil conditions
in most areas. These showers will taper off Friday night as the cold
front pushes east of our area and another high builds into the Great
Lakes Region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Saturday through Monday, July 4th, surface high pressure will slide
from the Western Great Lakes region to the Eastern Great Lakes
region. This area of high pressure, anchored over the Great Lakes
region will keep a baroclinic zone with showers and thunderstorms
well to our south over the holiday weekend. A mean long wave trough
aloft will limit the warming associated with this surface high.
Afternoon temperatures will warm from the mid 70s Friday, to the
lower 80s by Monday. There may be a stray shower east of Lake
Ontario Saturday with the presence of the upper level
low...otherwise mostly sunny skies and dry weather will prevail
through the weekend, with comfortable dewpoints.

On Tuesday the surface high will push eastward. Warming aloft at 850
hPa will occur with the southerly flow in the mid levels...with
temperatures reaching into the mid to upper teens C at 850 hPa
Tuesday. This will bring a warmer day at the surface with air
temperatures pushing higher into the mid to upper 80s, and a
slightly more uncomfortable feel to the airmass as dewpoints will be
a few degrees warmer.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditons remain in place across all of western and north
central New York this evening. A few showers are possible, but
with continued VFR conditions. The only area that may see some
MVFR tonight will be in the Western Southern Tier late tonight.

The low chance of some showers is again possible Wednesday east
of Lake Ontario.

Outlook...
Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds in the wake of a cold front have veered to the west-
northwest...but speeds will remain below small craft advisory
thresholds. Nevertheless...this flow will create choppy conditions
today on the eastern shores of the lakes.

Surface High pressure will build across the Lower Great Lakes
tonight and Wednesday...and will remain over the region through
Thursday with generally light winds and negligible waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.../SMITH/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...SMITH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH/ZAFF
MARINE...SMITH



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 282325
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
725 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region tonight,
resulting in showers and thunderstorms. Some storms may be produce
locally heavy rainfall. A disturbance will move through on
Wednesday with a few more showers and thunderstorms. High pressure
will then build into the region Wednesday night into Thursday
night, bringing dry weather. Another frontal system may bring a
few showers or thunderstorms Friday, before fair and seasonably
warm conditions return for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

...Flash Flood Watch cancelled for western Mohawk Valley...

As of 725 PM EDT, a prefrontal trough/dewpoint boundary extended
from the Saratoga/Lake George region southwest into the central
Catskills. A weak wave of low pressure may be developing along
this boundary across eastern NY, in response to the approach of a
potent shortwave currently located across the eastern Great Lakes
region.

In the vicinity of this boundary, numerous showers and
thunderstorms have developed, producing locally very heavy
rainfall, and isolated gusty winds and hail.

The boundary will continue slowly trudging east and south, as the
weak wave of low pressure continues to ripple along it. Showers
and embedded thunderstorms will continue in the vicinity of this
boundary, especially from the Lake George region into the Capital
Region and NE Catskills through 9 PM. Locally heavy downpours will
remain possible, with the threat for strong winds diminishing.

Between roughly 9 PM and midnight, the showers and embedded
thunderstorms should move into western New England, and the mid
Hudson Valley. Again, some locally heavy downpours will remain
possible. The showers should weaken after midnight, and decrease
in areal coverage, although could linger across portions of SE VT,
and perhaps NW CT.

Areas of fog/low clouds may develop in areas which receive
rainfall this evening.

Overnight lows will mainly be in the lower 60s, with some 50s
possible across portions of the Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wednesday, the shortwave currently located across the Great Lakes
will translate east across the region during the midday hours on
Wednesday. Forcing and mid level cooling associated with this
feature should allow for isolated to scattered showers to develop,
with the best chances/coverage across the upper Hudson Valley and
southern VT. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible in this
region, where forcing will be greatest. Small hail/gusty winds
could occur with any taller convective elements. Showers and
thunderstorms should decrease in areal coverage late Wednesday
afternoon. Expect high temperatures to reach the mid 70s to mid
80s, warmest in valley areas from Albany south and east.

Wednesday night through Thursday night, high pressure will build
in with dry weather and seasonable temperatures.

On Friday, another shortwave will approach from the Great Lakes
region. There remains uncertainty as to the areal extent of any
showers/possible thunderstorms will be associated with this
feature, and will ultimately depend on low level moisture recovery
from the mid Atlantic region. For now, have chances for showers
and thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening, tapering off Friday
night. Friday high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper
70s to mid 80s, but may be cooler if clouds/showers become more
widespread.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Generally fair and seasonably warm conditions are expected through
the period. We will have to watch for any fast moving upper level
impulses which pass through within a strong mid/upper level
west/northwest flow, which could generate isolated/scattered
showers, especially on Saturday, but for now, have indicated
mainly dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Leading line of showers and thunderstorms tracking through the KGFL
and KALB areas through 01Z. Area of intermittent rain behind the
line of convection should occur through about 06Z at KGFL and
KALB...then lingering low level moisture will help keep MVFR
ceilings in the area through much of the night. Some MVFR
visibilities in fog should occur intermittently through the night as
well. The low clouds and fog should break up by around 13Z.

The convection should reach KPSF and KPOU between 01Z and 03Z..then
the area of showers behind the convection lingers to around 06Z-08Z.
MVFR ceilings and visibilities should linger through about 13Z with
the low level moisture.

After around 13Z...ceilings and visibilities improve to VFR...but by
15Z-17Z...some scattered showers could develop around KALB...KGFL
and KPSF as upper energy tracks through our region. So...including a
VCSH there for Wednesday afternoon.

South to southeast winds through about 01Z at KPOU and KPSF until
the leading edge of the convection tracks through. There could be
some northwesterly wind gusts to 25 kt in the leading edge of the
convection.  Winds become west and northwest around 10 kt once the
convection exits.  Then as the rain ends later tonight the winds
trend to near calm.   Winds become southwest to northwest at 10 kt
or less Wednesday morning...continuing through Wednesday
afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this evening and
tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some
storms may produce locally heavy rainfall. A disturbance will
move through on Wednesday with a few more showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the region
Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values will increase to between 85 and
100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday will be around
40 to 55 percent.

Southerly winds this evening at 5-10 mph will become westerly
by later this evening around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
evening and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold front.
Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an inch,
however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated amounts
near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur within
thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible within
persistent slow moving downpours, particularly across the western
Mohawk Valley. Antecedent conditions are very dry though, so
widespread hydro issues on larger stem rivers are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL/JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBGM 282324
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
724 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region
primarily this afternoon. Some of the thunderstorms could produce
damaging winds mainly in the western Catskills, Poconos and
Wyoming valley in northeast Pennsylvania. Mainly dry and cooler
weather will follow the front through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
10 am update... Lower stratus clouds continue to slowly erode
across the Poconos and western Catskills late this morning, while
the rest of the region was enjoying sunshine. Partly-mostly sunny
skies should prevail area-wide through midday/early afternoon,
with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s-lower 80s.

The main focus continues to be the likelihood of thunderstorms
this afternoon/early evening, with some potential for isolated
strong-severe development. As of late morning, a slow moving
surface cold front was located just west of our forecast area,
across western NY/northwest PA. At the same time, a well defined
short-wave feature was evident on both satellite and meso-analysis
data over Lake Huron/southern Ontario. This is the real feature of
interest, as it could provide sufficient forced lift/vertical
shear/steeper mid-level lapse rates for more organized convection
later today, as it sweeps eastward. Its passage would seem well
timed with peak heating this afternoon, along with some higher
surface dew points (in the 60s) along and east of the
aforementioned surface front. Thus, we`ve continued with fairly
high POP`s (70+%) for areas near and east of the I-81 corridor,
from mid-afternoon til early evening.

Once again, available buoyancy (ML Capes of 1000-1500, maybe
locally near 2000 j/kg) and deep-layered shear (0-6 km values
around 40 kt) could support organized storm clusters/linear
features, and perhaps isolated supercells. We will be watching
this closely later today. The mention of gusty winds, hail, and
locally heavy rain remains in the forecast this
afternoon/evening.

Previous discussion... Early this morning a surface cold front
was moving through western New York as the associated upper level
trof and jet dynamics was well to the west over the central lakes.
As this front approaches the western forecast area primarily
scattered showers will develop by mid morning. Models continue to
show the convection along this boundary will intensify early this
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes and the upper level wave
and associated jet dynamics synch up with the surface feature. By
this time the airmass from I81 east is forecast to have ML CAPE
values of 1500-2000 J/KG (NAM) with the GFS around 800 J/KG. An
average value around 1200 J/KG seems reasonable along with deep
shear values around 40 knots. These values indicate the potential
for severe weather today and SPC continues to have the area
primarily from I81 east in a slight risk. The limiting factor
continues to be weak mid level lapse rates which may result in
tall/skinny CAPE if dewpoints don`t reach the upper 60s to around
70. The primary threat continues to be damaging winds although
very heavy downpours are also possible as PWATs are near 1.50
inches. Recent dry stretch has resulted in dry antecedent
conditions which should limit any hydro concerns. The best chances
for severe weather will reside in the western Catskills, Poconos
and Wyoming valley in northeast Pennsylvania. This activity may
linger into the early evening hours in the far southeast then end.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
On wednesday a weak secondary surface trof may trigger some light
showers so will continue with slight chc pops for much of the
area. Wednesday night through Thursday night the region will
remain dry with surface high pressure moving from the Ohio valley
east across the vicinity to the eastern seaboard by Thursday
night. It will be cool during the overnight periods with lows in
the upper 40s to middle 50s and highs in the 70s on Wednesday
rising to around 80 on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
11 am update...

For this period mostly dry with an upper level trough over the
northeast US and high pressure at the surface. Storm track Midwest
to the middle Atlantic. Temperatures near or slightly below
normal. Friday night the slow moving trough is over the area so a
chance of showers all night and maybe an evening thunderstorm. The
trough moves slowly east over the weekend. Maybe some showers
Tuesday night on with more of a zonal flow aloft and warm front at
the surface.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A few scattered showers and storms lingering over the western
Catskills and NE PA this evening...but not expected to have a
direct impact on any of the forecast terminals. May see -SHRA at
AVP between 00-02Z...otherwise dry conditions for most locations.
There is the potential for a few rain showers around SYR and RME
Wed morning...but confidence is low enough not to include in the
TAFs.

Will see a stratus deck form across most of the region later
tonight with MVFR ceilings likely and a chance of lower fuel
alternate cigs after 09Z at ELM...BGM and AVP. Brief MVFR vsbys in
fog are possible as well.

Ceilings lift to VFR through the morning hours and a SCT-BKN 040
cumulus field redevelops in the afternoon. Winds increase to
around 10 kt in the late morning and afternoon...but subside
before 00Z Thur to 4 kt or less...as skies clear out and a drier
air mass moves in.

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday night-Thursday...VFR except valley fog at KELM.

Friday...Although VFR expected much of the time, brief
restrictions with showers/thunderstorms are possible.

Sat and Sun...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...BJT/Heden




000
FXUS61 KOKX 282239
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
639 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west this evening, then
slowly cross the Tri-State through Wednesday. Weak high pressure
builds in Wednesday night through Friday. A cold front then
approaches and moves across the area late Friday night and Saturday.
High pressure builds in behind the front from Saturday night through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Added some patchy fog to the southern portions of Long Island and
New York City, as cameras have shown a fog bank offshore.
Otherwise, 700-500 hPa trough builds into the region tonight, as
an 850 hPa cold front moves into, then stalls over the area as it
becomes parallel to fairly weak flow at 850 hPa.

Should see showers, with maybe some embedded thunderstorms slowly build
into far western zones this evening, then spread eastward mainly
after midnight per latest high resolution model runs. CAPE of
500-1000 J/kg limited late this afternoon to W of the Hudson
River, with CAPE quickly diminishing after 00z. However, do have
showalter indices around 0 this evening throughout, hence at
least a slight chance of thunder everywhere. It does appear that
even the instability aloft diminishes after midnight, so have gone
over to just showers overnight.

Region remains under slight risk of severe storms tonight over
Orange County with a marginal risk just to the east, mainly for
areas W of the Hudson River. However, bulk shear remains below 20
kt, outside of Orange County where it is 25-30kt, until the CAPE
subsides, so Severe threat likely will be contained in Orange
County. However, will continue to highlight both Slight and
Marginal risk areas in the HWO, with the main threat strong gusty
winds. Also, with precipitable waters forecast over W zones to
reach upwards of 1.25 inches, could see some locally heavy
rainfall as well. See the hydrology section of the AFD for
details.

For lows tonight, a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter
temperatures was used, with values forecast to be a few degrees
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Core of 700-500 hPa trough lifts NE into eastern Quebec Wednesday,
taking the best dynamics with it. Best jet forcing will be in the
morning with the region in the right rear quadrant of a 75-80 KT 300
hPa jet and having a 50 KT 500 hPa jet pass over western
portions. However, the mid levels are forecast to be rather dry,
along with a cap centered around 650 hPa, with these likely being
the limiting factors in any convective development. For now have
slight chance pops across the N tier of the CWA Wednesday (area
closest to the best dynamic forcing), mainly E of the Hudson
River, with a dry forecast elsewhere.

Highs Wednesday were based on a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance, NAM
2-meter, and a mix down from 950-800 hPa per BUFKIT soundings.
Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal, except near normal
in the immediate NYC Metro area.

The main 700-500 hPa trough axis exits to the east Wednesday
evening, with drier air working in behind it in the low levels, to
go with the already dry air aloft. As a result, expect any cloud
cover to clear out overnight, with decent radiational cooling
setting up. Based on this, lows were weighed towards coolest of
MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter temperatures at any given
point outside of urban areas. Lows should be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds across the area on Thursday and Friday. A
cold front will move through the area late on Friday night and into
early Saturday, brining showers and the potential for some
thunderstorms. High pressure builds behind the front Sunday and
remains through the holiday weekend.

Temperatures during the extended period will be near normal for this
time of year, with temperatures during the day in the low to mid 80s
and low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An approaching cold front passes through the region late tonight
into Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds around 10KT into early tonight will become light and
variable later tonight until the frontal passage Wednesday morning.
Then winds become more NW and will stay light with therefore sea
breeze formation Wednesday afternoon for coastal terminals.

Conditions initially MVFR to LIFR will become mostly IFR/LIFR late
this evening and continue into early Wednesday morning. Highest
chances for showers will be in the 00Z-04Z timeframe for NYC
terminals as well as those to the N/W. Chances remain to the east
thereafter. Thunderstorms are only forecast to be sparse in
coverage early this evening so with much uncertainty in exact
timing and placement, these were not included in TAFs. After
frontal passage Wednesday, conditions gradually improve to VFR.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Some IFR vsbys are possible before 4Z.

KLGA TAF Comments: Timing of IFR/LIFR could be 1-2 hours off.

KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of IFR/LIFR could be 1-2 hours off.

KTEB TAF Comments: Timing of IFR/LIFR could be 1-2 hours off.

KHPN TAF Comments: Timing of LIFR to IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KISP TAF Comments: Timing of LIFR to IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH Sunday...
.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.
.Friday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in
showers/tstms.
.Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Added patchy fog to the ocean and South Shore Bays tonight.
Otherwise, a relaxed pressure gradient over the waters around
Long Island will keep winds at 10 kt or less through Wednesday
night. With no significant swells forecast, seas/waves should be 3
ft or less as well during this time frame.

Winds and seas are forecast to remain below small craft advisory
levels Thursday through the holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
From 1/6-1/2 inch of rain is forecast through tonight, with
locally higher amounts possible mainly west of the Hudson River.
Areas that do experience locally heavy rainfall could experience
minor flooding of urban/poor drainage areas with a very small
chance of localized flash flooding. However, most areas will
receive no hydrologic impact from this rainfall.

No significant rainfall is expected from Wednesday through Friday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late Friday night
and into early Saturday. Antecedent conditions are very dry, so
widespread hydrology issues are not expected.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/Maloit
NEAR TERM...JMC/Maloit
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JC/JM
MARINE...JMC/FIG/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...FIG/Maloit




000
FXUS61 KOKX 282239
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
639 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west this evening, then
slowly cross the Tri-State through Wednesday. Weak high pressure
builds in Wednesday night through Friday. A cold front then
approaches and moves across the area late Friday night and Saturday.
High pressure builds in behind the front from Saturday night through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Added some patchy fog to the southern portions of Long Island and
New York City, as cameras have shown a fog bank offshore.
Otherwise, 700-500 hPa trough builds into the region tonight, as
an 850 hPa cold front moves into, then stalls over the area as it
becomes parallel to fairly weak flow at 850 hPa.

Should see showers, with maybe some embedded thunderstorms slowly build
into far western zones this evening, then spread eastward mainly
after midnight per latest high resolution model runs. CAPE of
500-1000 J/kg limited late this afternoon to W of the Hudson
River, with CAPE quickly diminishing after 00z. However, do have
showalter indices around 0 this evening throughout, hence at
least a slight chance of thunder everywhere. It does appear that
even the instability aloft diminishes after midnight, so have gone
over to just showers overnight.

Region remains under slight risk of severe storms tonight over
Orange County with a marginal risk just to the east, mainly for
areas W of the Hudson River. However, bulk shear remains below 20
kt, outside of Orange County where it is 25-30kt, until the CAPE
subsides, so Severe threat likely will be contained in Orange
County. However, will continue to highlight both Slight and
Marginal risk areas in the HWO, with the main threat strong gusty
winds. Also, with precipitable waters forecast over W zones to
reach upwards of 1.25 inches, could see some locally heavy
rainfall as well. See the hydrology section of the AFD for
details.

For lows tonight, a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter
temperatures was used, with values forecast to be a few degrees
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Core of 700-500 hPa trough lifts NE into eastern Quebec Wednesday,
taking the best dynamics with it. Best jet forcing will be in the
morning with the region in the right rear quadrant of a 75-80 KT 300
hPa jet and having a 50 KT 500 hPa jet pass over western
portions. However, the mid levels are forecast to be rather dry,
along with a cap centered around 650 hPa, with these likely being
the limiting factors in any convective development. For now have
slight chance pops across the N tier of the CWA Wednesday (area
closest to the best dynamic forcing), mainly E of the Hudson
River, with a dry forecast elsewhere.

Highs Wednesday were based on a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance, NAM
2-meter, and a mix down from 950-800 hPa per BUFKIT soundings.
Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal, except near normal
in the immediate NYC Metro area.

The main 700-500 hPa trough axis exits to the east Wednesday
evening, with drier air working in behind it in the low levels, to
go with the already dry air aloft. As a result, expect any cloud
cover to clear out overnight, with decent radiational cooling
setting up. Based on this, lows were weighed towards coolest of
MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter temperatures at any given
point outside of urban areas. Lows should be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds across the area on Thursday and Friday. A
cold front will move through the area late on Friday night and into
early Saturday, brining showers and the potential for some
thunderstorms. High pressure builds behind the front Sunday and
remains through the holiday weekend.

Temperatures during the extended period will be near normal for this
time of year, with temperatures during the day in the low to mid 80s
and low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An approaching cold front passes through the region late tonight
into Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds around 10KT into early tonight will become light and
variable later tonight until the frontal passage Wednesday morning.
Then winds become more NW and will stay light with therefore sea
breeze formation Wednesday afternoon for coastal terminals.

Conditions initially MVFR to LIFR will become mostly IFR/LIFR late
this evening and continue into early Wednesday morning. Highest
chances for showers will be in the 00Z-04Z timeframe for NYC
terminals as well as those to the N/W. Chances remain to the east
thereafter. Thunderstorms are only forecast to be sparse in
coverage early this evening so with much uncertainty in exact
timing and placement, these were not included in TAFs. After
frontal passage Wednesday, conditions gradually improve to VFR.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Some IFR vsbys are possible before 4Z.

KLGA TAF Comments: Timing of IFR/LIFR could be 1-2 hours off.

KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of IFR/LIFR could be 1-2 hours off.

KTEB TAF Comments: Timing of IFR/LIFR could be 1-2 hours off.

KHPN TAF Comments: Timing of LIFR to IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

KISP TAF Comments: Timing of LIFR to IFR could be 1-3 hours off.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH Sunday...
.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.
.Friday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in
showers/tstms.
.Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Added patchy fog to the ocean and South Shore Bays tonight.
Otherwise, a relaxed pressure gradient over the waters around
Long Island will keep winds at 10 kt or less through Wednesday
night. With no significant swells forecast, seas/waves should be 3
ft or less as well during this time frame.

Winds and seas are forecast to remain below small craft advisory
levels Thursday through the holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
From 1/6-1/2 inch of rain is forecast through tonight, with
locally higher amounts possible mainly west of the Hudson River.
Areas that do experience locally heavy rainfall could experience
minor flooding of urban/poor drainage areas with a very small
chance of localized flash flooding. However, most areas will
receive no hydrologic impact from this rainfall.

No significant rainfall is expected from Wednesday through Friday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late Friday night
and into early Saturday. Antecedent conditions are very dry, so
widespread hydrology issues are not expected.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/Maloit
NEAR TERM...JMC/Maloit
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JC/JM
MARINE...JMC/FIG/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...FIG/Maloit




000
FXUS61 KBUF 282030
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
430 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move into Eastern New York this evening. Behind
the front, there will be a chance of showers across the North
Country on Wednesday. Otherwise, cooler and less humid conditions
will be found through the middle of the week. A return to warmer
weather is expected by Friday, along with the next chance of rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front stretches from the Saint Lawrence River Valley south to
central PA with a shortwave trough pivoting toward western NY this
afternoon. Visible satellite shows a clear circulation associated
with the shortwave which is bringing mostly cloudy skies across much
of western NY, while most of the convection is along and just
ahead of the frontal boundary. This will leave all of western NY
except the St Lawrence valley free of convection for the evening.

Tonight...Subsidence in the wake of the shortwave will generally
provide fair weather...although some 12z models show some post
frontal showers over the eastern half of Lake Ontario as the
shortwave passes. Low temps will settle into the 50s with the
cooler temps occuring in the cooler Southern Tier where a littler
drier air is found.

On Wednesday the trough and associated cyclonic flow combined with
some wraparound moisture will bring a chance of a few scattered
showers east of Lake Ontario. Expect a mix of clouds and sun in most
areas with cooler air aloft promoting plenty of diurnal cumulus.
Drier air arriving with incoming high pressure should bring more in
the way of sunshine later in the afternoon. Temperatures and
humidity levels will remain very comfortable with highs in the mid
70s across lower elevations and around 70 in the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A trough will exit into New England on Wednesday night, with any
lingering showers across the North Country tapering off Wednesday
evening. A ridge of high pressure across the Ohio Valley will
expand into the region behind this with skies clearing from west
to east. This combined with light winds will allow for good
radiational cooling. Expect lows in the lower to mid 50s on the
lake plains with mid 40s in some of the cooler Southern Tier
valleys.

High pressure will build across the lower lakes Thursday with
associated subsidence and dry air supporting plenty of sunshine. The
airmass will quickly moderate with highs back into the lower 80s
across lower elevations. High pressure will drift slowly towards the
east coast Thursday night with the mainly clear skies and overnight
lows in the 50s.

A closed 500 mb low near James Bay is forecast to push a trough
across our region on Friday. There will be a weak cold front with
this, with a weak warm front expected to stay to our southeast. The
more organized large scale ascent will remain north of the Canadian
border with limited convergence and moisture along the trailing
surface cold front which will move across our area. Local lake
breeze boundaries will likely end up producing better convergence
than the cold front itself, with widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible Friday afternoon and evening. Model QPF to
our south and east is likely associated with the weak warm front,
but model consensus generally keeps this out of our cwa.  The sparse
areal coverage will probably not alleviate the dry soil conditions
in most areas. These showers will taper off Friday night as the cold
front pushes east of our area and another high builds into the Great
Lakes Region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Saturday through Monday, July 4th, surface high pressure will slide
from the Western Great Lakes region to the Eastern Great Lakes
region. This area of high pressure, anchored over the Great Lakes
region will keep a baroclinic zone with showers and thunderstorms
well to our south over the holiday weekend. A mean long wave trough
aloft will limit the warming associated with this surface high.
Afternoon temperatures will warm from the mid 70s Friday, to the
lower 80s by Monday. There may be a stray shower east of Lake
Ontario Saturday with the presence of the upper level
low...otherwise mostly sunny skies and dry weather will prevail
through the weekend, with comfortable dewpoints.

On Tuesday the surface high will push eastward. Warming aloft at 850
hPa will occur with the southerly flow in the mid levels...with
temperatures reaching into the mid to upper teens C at 850 hPa
Tuesday. This will bring a warmer day at the surface with air
temperatures pushing higher into the mid to upper 80s, and a
slightly more uncomfortable feel to the airmass as dewpoints will be
a few degrees warmer.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditons remain in place across all of western and north
central New York this afternoon. Strong to severe threat will stay
east of a KART-KSYR line.

For tonight...mainly VFR conditions should persist with a low chance
of some showers developing over the eastern end of Lake Ontario.
Confidence is low for any of these moving near KART. Cigs in the
higher terrain of the western Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario
could lower to MVFR which has been included for a few hours at KJHW.

The low chance of some showers is again in play on Wednesday east of
Lake Ontario which may drift near KART as a mid-level trough passes
east.

Outlook...

Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR with no operational impact.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds in the wake of a cold front have veered to the west-
northwest...but speeds will remain below small craft advisory
thresholds. Nevertheless...this flow will create choppy conditions
today on the eastern shores of the lakes.

Surface High pressure will build across the Lower Great Lakes
tonight and Wednesday...and will remain over the region through
Thursday with generally light winds and negligible waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAM/SMITH/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...SMITH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH/ZAFF
MARINE...SMITH




000
FXUS61 KALY 282003
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
403 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this
evening and tonight, resulting in showers and thunderstorms. Some
storms may be produce locally very heavy rainfall. A disturbance
will move through on Wednesday with a few more showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the region
Wednesday night into Thursday night, bringing dry weather.
Another frontal system may bring a few showers or thunderstorms
Friday, before fair and seasonably warm conditions return for the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

...Flash Flood Watch in effect until 10 PM EDT for the southern
Herkimer CO...Fulton and Montgomery Cos...

As of 345 PM EDT, a prefrontal trough/dewpoint boundary extended
from the western Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley, into south central
NYS. It appears a weak wave of low pressure may be developing
along this boundary across far NE PA, in response to the approach
of a potent shortwave currently located across the eastern Great
Lakes region.

In the vicinity of this boundary, numerous showers and
thunderstorms have developed, producing locally very heavy
rainfall, and isolated gusty winds and hail.

As the aforementioned wave ripples along this boundary, it appears
that the best chance for showers/thunderstorms through sunset will
be across Herkimer CO and Hamilton Cos, and portions of the
western Mohawk Valley. As mid level winds back with the approach
of the aforementioned shortwave, some of this activity may
actually expand back northward into central and northern
Herkimer/Hamilton Cos.

Closer to, and especially after sunset, we expect the weak wave of
low pressure to move northeast, allowing this boundary to begin
sagging E and S. This should allow the threat of showers and
thunderstorms to increase from northwest to southeast across the
eastern Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and Lake George/Saratoga
Region, and southern VT around or shortly after sunset, and into
the Berkshires a bit later, most likely between roughly 10 PM and
midnight. The main impacts from these thunderstorms should be
locally heavy rain, but can not rule out localized gusty winds,
especially in any merging thunderstorm clusters and associated
cold pools.

It appears that the western Mohawk Valley may remain in an area of
repeated/multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through this
evening. Although it has been quite dry lately, individual
thunderstorms will be capable of producing rainfall rates of 1 to
2 inches per hour, and the western Mohawk Valley may be the most
susceptible area for training of this convection, therefore a
Flash Flood Watch has been issued through 10 PM.

Later tonight, showers and thunderstorms should weaken as they
trend south and east.

Areas of fog/low clouds may develop in areas which receive
rainfall this evening.

Overnight lows will mainly be in the 60s, with some 50s possible
across portions of the Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wednesday, the shortwave currently located across the Great Lakes
will translate east across the region during the midday hours on
Wednesday. Forcing and mid level cooling associated with this
feature should allow for isolated to scattered showers to develop,
with the best chances/coverage across the upper Hudson Valley and
southern VT. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible in this
region, where forcing will be greatest. Small hail/gusty winds
could occur with any taller convective elements. Showers and
thunderstorms should decrease in areal coverage late Wednesday
afternoon. Expect high temperatures to reach the mid 70s to mid
80s, warmest in valley areas from Albany south and east.

Wednesday night through Thursday night, high pressure will build
in with dry weather and seasonable temperatures.

On Friday, another shortwave will approach from the Great Lakes
region. There remains uncertainty as to the areal extent of any
showers/possible thunderstorms will be associated with this
feature, and will ultimately depend on low level moisture recovery
from the mid Atlantic region. For now, have chances for showers
and thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening, tapering off Friday
night. Friday high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper
70s to mid 80s, but may be cooler if clouds/showers become more
widespread.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Generally fair and seasonably warm conditions are expected through
the period. We will have to watch for any fast moving upper level
impulses which pass through within a strong mid/upper level
west/northwest flow, which could generate isolated/scattered
showers, especially on Saturday, but for now, have indicated
mainly dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
We continue to watch convection developing upstream at this time as
a few thunderstorms are just to the west of the Capital District
with a sct-bkn line of convection along the cold front in the
vicinity of I81.  Expectations are for this line of convection to
develop and mature as it approaches the Hudson Valley TAF locations
with a period of MVFR to possibly IFR conditions.  The best window
of opportunity would be from approximately 20Z Tuesday til 02Z
Wednesday.

Tonight depending on how much rain impacts the TAF sites, widespread
MVFR conditions are expected to develop for the overnight in the
wake of the convection with IFR conditions expected at KPOU and KPSF.

Southerly winds this afternoon with gusts into the teens and lower
20s at KALB during the afternoon. Winds will become light
and variable tonight.



Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this evening and
tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some
storms may produce locally heavy rainfall. A disturbance will
move through on Wednesday with a few more showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the region
Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values will increase to between 85 and
100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday will be around
40 to 55 percent.

Southerly winds this evening at 5-10 mph will become westerly
later tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be northwest
at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
evening and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold front.
Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an inch,
however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated amounts
near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur within
thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible within
persistent slow moving downpours, particularly across the western
Mohawk Valley. Antecedent conditions are very dry though, so
widespread hydro issues on larger stem rivers are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for NYZ038>040-
     082.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL/JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV




000
FXUS61 KBUF 281957
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
357 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will shift across Central and Eastern New York this
afternoon, bringing a chance of thunderstorms mainly east of
Interstate 81. In the wake of the cold front, a chance of showers
will be possible across the North Country on Wednesday, otherwise,
cooler and less humid conditions will be found through the middle
of the week. A return to warmer weather is expected by Friday,
along with the next chance of rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front stretches from the Saint Lawrence River Valley south to
central PA with a shortwave trough pivoting toward western NY this
afternoon. Visible satellite shows a clear circulation associated
with the shortwave which is bringing mostly cloudy skies across much
of western NY and will enhance storm activity east of the cold front
going into this evening. While most of the storm activity will
remain east of our forecast area, some locations east of I-81 in
Lewis county could see a strong to severe storm this afternoon as
the shortwave approaches. Mesoanalysis here shows 1000+ j/kg SBCAPE
but 0-6km shear is on the low side of favorable at 25-30 kts. SPC
maintains a marginal risk for severe storms across eastern Oswego,
eastern Jefferson and Lewis counties.

Conditions west of the the front are much more comfortable today
with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. Latest KBUF radar is
showing some isolated showers over the Niagara Frontier this
afternoon likely triggered by a combination of a lake breeze
convergence zone and synoptic forcing from the shortwave. Have
maintained chance POPs mainly extending into Niagara county for some
showers as 12z forecast soundings continue to show a lingering 700mb
cap west of the front. High temperatures today should range in the
mid to upper 70s and a little cooler along the lake shores.

Tonight...Subsidence in the wake of the shortwave will generally
provide fair weather...although some 12z models show some post
frontal showers over the eastern half of Lake Ontario as the
shortwave passes. Low temps will settle into the 50s with the cooler
temps occuring in the cooler Southern Tier where a littler drier
air is found.

On Wednesday the trough and associated cyclonic flow combined with
some wraparound moisture will bring a chance of a few scattered
showers east of Lake Ontario. Expect a mix of clouds and sun in most
areas with cooler air aloft promoting plenty of diurnal cumulus.
Drier air arriving with incoming high pressure should bring more in
the way of sunshine later in the afternoon. Temperatures and
humidity levels will remain very comfortable with highs in the mid
70s across lower elevations and around 70 in the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A trough will exit into New England on Wednesday night, with any
lingering showers across the North Country tapering off Wednesday
evening. A ridge of high pressure across the Ohio Valley will
expand into the region behind this with skies clearing from west
to east. This combined with light winds will allow for good
radiational cooling. Expect lows in the lower to mid 50s on the
lake plains with mid 40s in some of the cooler Southern Tier
valleys.

High pressure will build across the lower lakes Thursday with
associated subsidence and dry air supporting plenty of sunshine. The
airmass will quickly moderate with highs back into the lower 80s
across lower elevations. High pressure will drift slowly towards the
east coast Thursday night with the mainly clear skies and overnight
lows in the 50s.

A closed 500 mb low near James Bay is forecast to push a trough
across our region on Friday. There will be a weak cold front with
this, with a weak warm front expected to stay to our southeast. The
more organized large scale ascent will remain north of the Canadian
border with limited convergence and moisture along the trailing
surface cold front which will move across our area. Local lake
breeze boundaries will likely end up producing better convergence
than the cold front itself, with widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible Friday afternoon and evening. Model QPF to
our south and east is likely associated with the weak warm front,
but model consensus generally keeps this out of our cwa.  The sparse
areal coverage will probably not alleviate the dry soil conditions
in most areas. These showers will taper off Friday night as the cold
front pushes east of our area and another high builds into the Great
Lakes Region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Saturday through Monday, July 4th, surface high pressure will slide
from the Western Great Lakes region to the Eastern Great Lakes
region. This area of high pressure, anchored over the Great Lakes
region will keep a baroclinic zone with showers and thunderstorms
well to our south over the holiday weekend. A mean long wave trough
aloft will limit the warming associated with this surface high.
Afternoon temperatures will warm from the mid 70s Friday, to the
lower 80s by Monday. There may be a stray shower east of Lake
Ontario Saturday with the presence of the upper level
low...otherwise mostly sunny skies and dry weather will prevail
through the weekend, with comfortable dewpoints.

On Tuesday the surface high will push eastward. Warming aloft at 850
hPa will occur with the southerly flow in the mid levels...with
temperatures reaching into the mid to upper teens C at 850 hPa
Tuesday. This will bring a warmer day at the surface with air
temperatures pushing higher into the mid to upper 80s, and a
slightly more uncomfortable feel to the airmass as dewpoints will be
a few degrees warmer.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditons remain in place across all of western and north
central New York this afternoon. Strong to severe threat should
stay east of a KART-KSYR line.

For tonight...mainly VFR conditions should persist with a low chance
of some showers developing over the eastern end of Lake Ontario.
Confidence is low for any of these moving near KART. Cigs in the
higher terrain of the western Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario
could lower to MVFR which has been included for a few hours at KJHW.

The low chance of some showers is again in play on Wednesday east of
Lake Ontario which may drift near KART as a mid-level trough passes
east.

Outlook...

Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR with no operational impact.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds in the wake of a cold front have veered to the west-
northwest...but speeds will remain below small craft advisory
thresholds. Nevertheless...this flow will create choppy conditions
today on the eastern shores of the lakes.

Surface High pressure will build across the Lower Great Lakes
tonight and Wednesday...and will remain over the region through
Thursday with generally light winds and negligible waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAM/SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 281957
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
357 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will shift across Central and Eastern New York this
afternoon, bringing a chance of thunderstorms mainly east of
Interstate 81. In the wake of the cold front, a chance of showers
will be possible across the North Country on Wednesday, otherwise,
cooler and less humid conditions will be found through the middle
of the week. A return to warmer weather is expected by Friday,
along with the next chance of rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front stretches from the Saint Lawrence River Valley south to
central PA with a shortwave trough pivoting toward western NY this
afternoon. Visible satellite shows a clear circulation associated
with the shortwave which is bringing mostly cloudy skies across much
of western NY and will enhance storm activity east of the cold front
going into this evening. While most of the storm activity will
remain east of our forecast area, some locations east of I-81 in
Lewis county could see a strong to severe storm this afternoon as
the shortwave approaches. Mesoanalysis here shows 1000+ j/kg SBCAPE
but 0-6km shear is on the low side of favorable at 25-30 kts. SPC
maintains a marginal risk for severe storms across eastern Oswego,
eastern Jefferson and Lewis counties.

Conditions west of the the front are much more comfortable today
with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. Latest KBUF radar is
showing some isolated showers over the Niagara Frontier this
afternoon likely triggered by a combination of a lake breeze
convergence zone and synoptic forcing from the shortwave. Have
maintained chance POPs mainly extending into Niagara county for some
showers as 12z forecast soundings continue to show a lingering 700mb
cap west of the front. High temperatures today should range in the
mid to upper 70s and a little cooler along the lake shores.

Tonight...Subsidence in the wake of the shortwave will generally
provide fair weather...although some 12z models show some post
frontal showers over the eastern half of Lake Ontario as the
shortwave passes. Low temps will settle into the 50s with the cooler
temps occuring in the cooler Southern Tier where a littler drier
air is found.

On Wednesday the trough and associated cyclonic flow combined with
some wraparound moisture will bring a chance of a few scattered
showers east of Lake Ontario. Expect a mix of clouds and sun in most
areas with cooler air aloft promoting plenty of diurnal cumulus.
Drier air arriving with incoming high pressure should bring more in
the way of sunshine later in the afternoon. Temperatures and
humidity levels will remain very comfortable with highs in the mid
70s across lower elevations and around 70 in the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A trough will exit into New England on Wednesday night, with any
lingering showers across the North Country tapering off Wednesday
evening. A ridge of high pressure across the Ohio Valley will
expand into the region behind this with skies clearing from west
to east. This combined with light winds will allow for good
radiational cooling. Expect lows in the lower to mid 50s on the
lake plains with mid 40s in some of the cooler Southern Tier
valleys.

High pressure will build across the lower lakes Thursday with
associated subsidence and dry air supporting plenty of sunshine. The
airmass will quickly moderate with highs back into the lower 80s
across lower elevations. High pressure will drift slowly towards the
east coast Thursday night with the mainly clear skies and overnight
lows in the 50s.

A closed 500 mb low near James Bay is forecast to push a trough
across our region on Friday. There will be a weak cold front with
this, with a weak warm front expected to stay to our southeast. The
more organized large scale ascent will remain north of the Canadian
border with limited convergence and moisture along the trailing
surface cold front which will move across our area. Local lake
breeze boundaries will likely end up producing better convergence
than the cold front itself, with widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible Friday afternoon and evening. Model QPF to
our south and east is likely associated with the weak warm front,
but model consensus generally keeps this out of our cwa.  The sparse
areal coverage will probably not alleviate the dry soil conditions
in most areas. These showers will taper off Friday night as the cold
front pushes east of our area and another high builds into the Great
Lakes Region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Saturday through Monday, July 4th, surface high pressure will slide
from the Western Great Lakes region to the Eastern Great Lakes
region. This area of high pressure, anchored over the Great Lakes
region will keep a baroclinic zone with showers and thunderstorms
well to our south over the holiday weekend. A mean long wave trough
aloft will limit the warming associated with this surface high.
Afternoon temperatures will warm from the mid 70s Friday, to the
lower 80s by Monday. There may be a stray shower east of Lake
Ontario Saturday with the presence of the upper level
low...otherwise mostly sunny skies and dry weather will prevail
through the weekend, with comfortable dewpoints.

On Tuesday the surface high will push eastward. Warming aloft at 850
hPa will occur with the southerly flow in the mid levels...with
temperatures reaching into the mid to upper teens C at 850 hPa
Tuesday. This will bring a warmer day at the surface with air
temperatures pushing higher into the mid to upper 80s, and a
slightly more uncomfortable feel to the airmass as dewpoints will be
a few degrees warmer.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditons remain in place across all of western and north
central New York this afternoon. Strong to severe threat should
stay east of a KART-KSYR line.

For tonight...mainly VFR conditions should persist with a low chance
of some showers developing over the eastern end of Lake Ontario.
Confidence is low for any of these moving near KART. Cigs in the
higher terrain of the western Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario
could lower to MVFR which has been included for a few hours at KJHW.

The low chance of some showers is again in play on Wednesday east of
Lake Ontario which may drift near KART as a mid-level trough passes
east.

Outlook...

Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR with no operational impact.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds in the wake of a cold front have veered to the west-
northwest...but speeds will remain below small craft advisory
thresholds. Nevertheless...this flow will create choppy conditions
today on the eastern shores of the lakes.

Surface High pressure will build across the Lower Great Lakes
tonight and Wednesday...and will remain over the region through
Thursday with generally light winds and negligible waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAM/SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH




000
FXUS61 KOKX 281951
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
351 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west this evening, then
slowly cross the Tri-State through Wednesday. Weak high pressure
builds in Wednesday night through Friday. A cold front then
approaches and moves across the area late Friday night and Saturday.
High pressure builds in behind the front from Saturday night through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
700-500 hPa trough builds into the region tonight, as an 850 hPa
cold front moves into, then stalls over the area as it becomes
parallel to fairly weak flow at 850 hPa.

Should see showers, with maybe some embedded thunderstorms slowly build
into far western zones this evening, then spread eastward mainly
after midnight per latest high resolution model runs. CAPE of
500-1000 J/kg limited late this afternoon to W of the Hudson
River, with CAPE quickly diminishing after 00z. However, do have
showalter indices around 0 this evening throughout, hence at
least a slight chance of thunder everywhere. It does appear that
even the instability aloft diminishes after midnight, so have gone
over to just showers overnight.

Region remains under slight risk of severe storms tonight over
Orange County with a marginal risk just to the east, mainly for
areas W of the Hudson River. However, bulk shear remains below 20
kt, outside of Orange County where it is 25-30kt, until the CAPE
subsides, so Severe threat likely will be contained in Orange
County. However, will continue to highlight both Slight and
Marginal risk areas in the HWO, with the main threat strong gusty
winds. Also, with precipitable waters forecast over W zones to
reach upwards of 1.25 inches, could see some locally heavy
rainfall as well. See the hydrology section of the AFD for
details.

For lows tonight, a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter
temperatures was used, with values forecast to be a few degrees
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Core of 700-500 hPa trough lifts NE into eastern Quebec Wednesday,
taking the best dynamics with it. Best jet forcing will be in the
morning with the region in the right rear quadrant of a 75-80 KT 300
hPa jet and having a 50 KT 500 hPa jet pass over western
portions. However, the mid levels are forecast to be rather dry,
along with a cap centered around 650 hPa, with these likely being
the limiting factors in any convective development. For now have
slight chance pops across the N tier of the CWA Wednesday (area
closest to the best dynamic forcing), mainly E of the Hudson
River, with a dry forecast elsewhere.

Highs Wednesday were based on a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance, NAM
2-meter, and a mix down from 950-800 hPa per BUFKIT soundings.
Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal, except near normal
in the immediate NYC Metro area.

The main 700-500 hPa trough axis exits to the east Wednesday
evening, with drier air working in behind it in the low levels, to
go with the already dry air aloft. As a result, expect any cloud
cover to clear out overnight, with decent radiational cooling
setting up. Based on this, lows were weighed towards coolest of
MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter temperatures at any given
point outside of urban areas. Lows should be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds across the area on Thursday and Friday. A
cold front will move through the area late on Friday night and into
early Saturday, brining showers and the potential for some
thunderstorms. High pressure builds behind the front Sunday and
remains through the holiday weekend.

Temperatures during the extended period will be near normal for this
time of year, with temperatures during the day in the low to mid 80s
and low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An approaching cold front passes through the region late tonight
into Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds around 10KT.

Cigs at city and western terminals varying mostly 800-1500 FT. Cigs
probably lower after around 00-01Z. Showers will be possible for a
few hours, starting around midnight for the city terminals. A
thunderstorm is possible during this period, but not
likely/widespread enough to include at any terminal forecast.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Prevailing MVFR cigs possible this afternoon.

KLGA TAF Comments: Prevailing MVFR cigs possible this afternoon.

KEWR TAF Comments: Prevailing MVFR cigs possible this afternoon.

KTEB TAF Comments: Tempo IFR cigs possible before 00Z.

KHPN TAF Comments: Tempo MVFR possible this afternoon.

KISP TAF Comments: Cigs could vary 800-1200FT for the rest of the
afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH Sunday...

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in
showers/tstms.

.Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters around Long Island
will keep winds at 10 kt or less through Wednesday night. With no
significant swells forecast, seas/waves should be 3 ft or less as
well during this time frame.

Winds and seas are forecast to remain below small craft advisory
levels Thursday through the holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
From 1/6-1/2 inch of rain is forecast through tonight, with
locally higher amounts possible mainly west of the Hudson River.
Areas that do experience locally heavy rainfall could experience
minor flooding of urban/poor drainage areas with a very small
chance of localized flash flooding. However, most areas will
receive no hydrologic impact from this rainfall.

No significant rainfall is expected from Wednesday through Friday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late Friday night
and into early Saturday. Antecedent conditions are very dry, so
widespread hydrology issues are not expected.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Maloit/FIG
NEAR TERM...Maloit
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...Maloit/FIG
HYDROLOGY...Maloit/FIG




000
FXUS61 KOKX 281951
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
351 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west this evening, then
slowly cross the Tri-State through Wednesday. Weak high pressure
builds in Wednesday night through Friday. A cold front then
approaches and moves across the area late Friday night and Saturday.
High pressure builds in behind the front from Saturday night through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
700-500 hPa trough builds into the region tonight, as an 850 hPa
cold front moves into, then stalls over the area as it becomes
parallel to fairly weak flow at 850 hPa.

Should see showers, with maybe some embedded thunderstorms slowly build
into far western zones this evening, then spread eastward mainly
after midnight per latest high resolution model runs. CAPE of
500-1000 J/kg limited late this afternoon to W of the Hudson
River, with CAPE quickly diminishing after 00z. However, do have
showalter indices around 0 this evening throughout, hence at
least a slight chance of thunder everywhere. It does appear that
even the instability aloft diminishes after midnight, so have gone
over to just showers overnight.

Region remains under slight risk of severe storms tonight over
Orange County with a marginal risk just to the east, mainly for
areas W of the Hudson River. However, bulk shear remains below 20
kt, outside of Orange County where it is 25-30kt, until the CAPE
subsides, so Severe threat likely will be contained in Orange
County. However, will continue to highlight both Slight and
Marginal risk areas in the HWO, with the main threat strong gusty
winds. Also, with precipitable waters forecast over W zones to
reach upwards of 1.25 inches, could see some locally heavy
rainfall as well. See the hydrology section of the AFD for
details.

For lows tonight, a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter
temperatures was used, with values forecast to be a few degrees
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Core of 700-500 hPa trough lifts NE into eastern Quebec Wednesday,
taking the best dynamics with it. Best jet forcing will be in the
morning with the region in the right rear quadrant of a 75-80 KT 300
hPa jet and having a 50 KT 500 hPa jet pass over western
portions. However, the mid levels are forecast to be rather dry,
along with a cap centered around 650 hPa, with these likely being
the limiting factors in any convective development. For now have
slight chance pops across the N tier of the CWA Wednesday (area
closest to the best dynamic forcing), mainly E of the Hudson
River, with a dry forecast elsewhere.

Highs Wednesday were based on a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance, NAM
2-meter, and a mix down from 950-800 hPa per BUFKIT soundings.
Highs should be around 5 degrees above normal, except near normal
in the immediate NYC Metro area.

The main 700-500 hPa trough axis exits to the east Wednesday
evening, with drier air working in behind it in the low levels, to
go with the already dry air aloft. As a result, expect any cloud
cover to clear out overnight, with decent radiational cooling
setting up. Based on this, lows were weighed towards coolest of
MAV/MET/ECS guidance and NAM 2-meter temperatures at any given
point outside of urban areas. Lows should be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds across the area on Thursday and Friday. A
cold front will move through the area late on Friday night and into
early Saturday, brining showers and the potential for some
thunderstorms. High pressure builds behind the front Sunday and
remains through the holiday weekend.

Temperatures during the extended period will be near normal for this
time of year, with temperatures during the day in the low to mid 80s
and low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An approaching cold front passes through the region late tonight
into Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds around 10KT.

Cigs at city and western terminals varying mostly 800-1500 FT. Cigs
probably lower after around 00-01Z. Showers will be possible for a
few hours, starting around midnight for the city terminals. A
thunderstorm is possible during this period, but not
likely/widespread enough to include at any terminal forecast.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Prevailing MVFR cigs possible this afternoon.

KLGA TAF Comments: Prevailing MVFR cigs possible this afternoon.

KEWR TAF Comments: Prevailing MVFR cigs possible this afternoon.

KTEB TAF Comments: Tempo IFR cigs possible before 00Z.

KHPN TAF Comments: Tempo MVFR possible this afternoon.

KISP TAF Comments: Cigs could vary 800-1200FT for the rest of the
afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH Sunday...

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in
showers/tstms.

.Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters around Long Island
will keep winds at 10 kt or less through Wednesday night. With no
significant swells forecast, seas/waves should be 3 ft or less as
well during this time frame.

Winds and seas are forecast to remain below small craft advisory
levels Thursday through the holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
From 1/6-1/2 inch of rain is forecast through tonight, with
locally higher amounts possible mainly west of the Hudson River.
Areas that do experience locally heavy rainfall could experience
minor flooding of urban/poor drainage areas with a very small
chance of localized flash flooding. However, most areas will
receive no hydrologic impact from this rainfall.

No significant rainfall is expected from Wednesday through Friday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late Friday night
and into early Saturday. Antecedent conditions are very dry, so
widespread hydrology issues are not expected.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Maloit/FIG
NEAR TERM...Maloit
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...Maloit/FIG
HYDROLOGY...Maloit/FIG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281838
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
238 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will continue to move across the North
tonight, triggering heavy rain showers and scattered strong
thunderstorms especially across the champlain valley and vermont.
Scattered showers linger into Wednesday as an upper trough swings
through, but the end of the work week will see a return of warm
and dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /through wednesay/...
As of 240 PM EDT Tuesday...Showers and thunderstorms continue to
develop as expectd across NE NY and northern VT as a result of
moderate instability and a slow moving cold front moving across
the area and the approach of a vigourous shortwave moving across
the eastern great lakes this afternoon and rest of forecast area
tonight.

Wind dynamics are not that all great with 0-6km shear values in
area of greatest instability 30-35kts yet stronger shear of >45
kts lags behind the instability. Perhaps these winds can tap into
any thunderstorms across northern vt this evening and bring about
localized severe.

Storm motion is expected to be less than 25 kts and with pwats
alg/ahd of frontal boundary in the 1.5 inch vicinity and
unidirectional parallel flow to frontal boundary can expect some
slow-moving training storms.

Upper level dynamics are not too bad with h25 jet of 80+ kts
moving across northern vt between 03-09z and potentially may be in
favored coupled jet streak which may bring some enhancement to
keep upper vertical motion going in rich pwats.

Therefore...some concern for localized 2-3+ inch rainfall and
despite dry antecedent conditions very localized flooding. Weather
Prediction Center mesoscale precipitation discussion issued
earlier today confirms our concerns.

Again...very localized and for many a much welcomed drink of
water.

Light/calm wind and lots of low-level moisture will likely
promote some patchy fog where it rains and some patchy dense fog
in climo favored adrndks and central/eastern mtn/river valleys.

Upper trough centered across vt on wednesday with some diurnal
heating accounting for some sct -shra and possible tsra...esp in
eastern vt wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY night THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 240PM
EDT Tuesday...surface high pressure moves in wed ngt and continues
through thursday night. Dry weather with seasonable temperatures
on thu and some valley fog possible wed night and to lesser extent
thu night.&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Tuesday...important holiday weekend forecast and
for the most part it looks good for holiday celebrations.

Another northern stream upper trough rotates across eastern great
lakes into north country late fri-fri ngt-sat morning. Airmass
more stable thus not impacts as witnessing/expected today/tonight
but enough heating for some showers and possible thunderstorms
late fri (esp ny) and showers fri ngt and some leftover showers
esp in northern sections on sat.

On sunday...still under the influence of closed low in northern
quebec and cyclonic flow across area. Models differ slightly on
the resultant outcome but cant rule out a possible shower sun aftn
but thunder not expected.

On monday...upper low and trough axis shifting ene away from area
thus should be sunny...dry and seasonable and this will continue
into tuesday as well.

Therefore...not expecting any heat related issues nor thunderstorm
concerns for holiday festivities at this time but always remember
to check the latest forecasts.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...Stage set for developing heavy showers
and thunderstorms along a cold front, starting around 18z
kslk/kplb and then advancing eastward into VT terminals. mvfr/ifr
with heavy rain showers and thunderstorms and some turbulance
associated with thunderstorms. Aft 06z...shower activity
diminishes but lots of llvl moisture should allow for MVFR/IFR
cigs and vsby due to fog. Aft 12z wed...vfr with perhaps some
instability -shra.

Outlook 18z Wednesday through Saturday...

18z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Generally VFR, possible
brief MVFR in diurnal showers.

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with IFR/LIFR radiational
fog at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

Saturday onward...VFR/MVFR with chances for scattered showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 235 pM EDT Tuesday... Risk of heavy rainfall remains in
place for rest of this afteroon/tonight. Low-level wind fields
parallel to the cold front should lead to training of convective
cells, and if persistent enough may trigger areas of isolated
flash flooding. PWAT values are not excessively high but are
around 1.4-1.6". Flash flood guidance (FFG) is also fairly high
given the relative dryness of late. 1 hour FFG is roughly
1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is 2.3-3.0". It might be hard to see that
amount of rain in just 1 hour, but if we`ve got a slow moving line
with repeated cells moving across an area for 3 hours, that 3 hour
FFG is not too hard to achieve. Any flash flooding would be
localized to small basins or small urban and mountainous
locations. Larger main-stem river flooding is not expected.
Forecast QPF values through tonight range from 1 to 1.5", but
could be higher in more localized and persistent cell training.

&&


.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW/AL
NEAR TERM...SLW/AL
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
HYDROLOGY...Loconto/slw




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281838
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
238 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will continue to move across the North
tonight, triggering heavy rain showers and scattered strong
thunderstorms especially across the champlain valley and vermont.
Scattered showers linger into Wednesday as an upper trough swings
through, but the end of the work week will see a return of warm
and dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /through wednesay/...
As of 240 PM EDT Tuesday...Showers and thunderstorms continue to
develop as expectd across NE NY and northern VT as a result of
moderate instability and a slow moving cold front moving across
the area and the approach of a vigourous shortwave moving across
the eastern great lakes this afternoon and rest of forecast area
tonight.

Wind dynamics are not that all great with 0-6km shear values in
area of greatest instability 30-35kts yet stronger shear of >45
kts lags behind the instability. Perhaps these winds can tap into
any thunderstorms across northern vt this evening and bring about
localized severe.

Storm motion is expected to be less than 25 kts and with pwats
alg/ahd of frontal boundary in the 1.5 inch vicinity and
unidirectional parallel flow to frontal boundary can expect some
slow-moving training storms.

Upper level dynamics are not too bad with h25 jet of 80+ kts
moving across northern vt between 03-09z and potentially may be in
favored coupled jet streak which may bring some enhancement to
keep upper vertical motion going in rich pwats.

Therefore...some concern for localized 2-3+ inch rainfall and
despite dry antecedent conditions very localized flooding. Weather
Prediction Center mesoscale precipitation discussion issued
earlier today confirms our concerns.

Again...very localized and for many a much welcomed drink of
water.

Light/calm wind and lots of low-level moisture will likely
promote some patchy fog where it rains and some patchy dense fog
in climo favored adrndks and central/eastern mtn/river valleys.

Upper trough centered across vt on wednesday with some diurnal
heating accounting for some sct -shra and possible tsra...esp in
eastern vt wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY night THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 240PM
EDT Tuesday...surface high pressure moves in wed ngt and continues
through thursday night. Dry weather with seasonable temperatures
on thu and some valley fog possible wed night and to lesser extent
thu night.&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Tuesday...important holiday weekend forecast and
for the most part it looks good for holiday celebrations.

Another northern stream upper trough rotates across eastern great
lakes into north country late fri-fri ngt-sat morning. Airmass
more stable thus not impacts as witnessing/expected today/tonight
but enough heating for some showers and possible thunderstorms
late fri (esp ny) and showers fri ngt and some leftover showers
esp in northern sections on sat.

On sunday...still under the influence of closed low in northern
quebec and cyclonic flow across area. Models differ slightly on
the resultant outcome but cant rule out a possible shower sun aftn
but thunder not expected.

On monday...upper low and trough axis shifting ene away from area
thus should be sunny...dry and seasonable and this will continue
into tuesday as well.

Therefore...not expecting any heat related issues nor thunderstorm
concerns for holiday festivities at this time but always remember
to check the latest forecasts.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...Stage set for developing heavy showers
and thunderstorms along a cold front, starting around 18z
kslk/kplb and then advancing eastward into VT terminals. mvfr/ifr
with heavy rain showers and thunderstorms and some turbulance
associated with thunderstorms. Aft 06z...shower activity
diminishes but lots of llvl moisture should allow for MVFR/IFR
cigs and vsby due to fog. Aft 12z wed...vfr with perhaps some
instability -shra.

Outlook 18z Wednesday through Saturday...

18z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Generally VFR, possible
brief MVFR in diurnal showers.

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with IFR/LIFR radiational
fog at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

Saturday onward...VFR/MVFR with chances for scattered showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 235 pM EDT Tuesday... Risk of heavy rainfall remains in
place for rest of this afteroon/tonight. Low-level wind fields
parallel to the cold front should lead to training of convective
cells, and if persistent enough may trigger areas of isolated
flash flooding. PWAT values are not excessively high but are
around 1.4-1.6". Flash flood guidance (FFG) is also fairly high
given the relative dryness of late. 1 hour FFG is roughly
1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is 2.3-3.0". It might be hard to see that
amount of rain in just 1 hour, but if we`ve got a slow moving line
with repeated cells moving across an area for 3 hours, that 3 hour
FFG is not too hard to achieve. Any flash flooding would be
localized to small basins or small urban and mountainous
locations. Larger main-stem river flooding is not expected.
Forecast QPF values through tonight range from 1 to 1.5", but
could be higher in more localized and persistent cell training.

&&


.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW/AL
NEAR TERM...SLW/AL
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
HYDROLOGY...Loconto/slw




000
FXUS61 KBUF 281835
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
235 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will shift across Central and Eastern New York this
afternoon, bringing a chance of thunderstorms mainly East of
Interstate 81. In the wake of the cold front, a chance of showers
will be possible across the North Country on Wednesday, otherwise,
cooler and less humid conditions will be found through the middle
of the week. A return to warmer weather is expected by Friday,
along with the next chance of rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front stretches from the Saint Lawrence River Valley south to
central PA with a shortwave trough pivoting toward western NY this
afternoon. Visible satellite shows a clear circulation associated
with the shortwave which is bringing mostly cloudy skies across much
of western NY and will enhance storm activity east of the cold front
going into this evening. While most of the storm activity will
remain east of our forecast area, some locations east of I-81 in
Lewis county could see a strong to severe storm this afternoon as
the shortwave approaches. Mesoanalysis here shows 1000+ j/kg SBCAPE
but 0-6km shear is on the low side of favorable at 25-30 kts. SPC
maintains a marginal risk for severe storms across eastern Oswego,
eastern Jefferson and Lewis counties.

Conditions west of the the front are much more comfortable today
with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. Latest KBUF radar is
showing some isolated showers over the Niagara Frontier this
afternoon likely triggered by a combination of a lake breeze
convergence zone and synoptic forcing from the shortwave. Have
maintained chance POPs mainly extending into Niagara county for some
showers as 12z forecast soundings continue to show a lingering 700mb
cap west of the front. High temperatures today should range in the
mid to upper 70s and a little cooler along the lake shores.

Tonight...Subsidence in the wake of the shortwave will generally
provide fair weather...although some 12z models show some post
frontal showers over the eastern half of Lake Ontario as the
shortwave passes. Low temps will settle into the 50s with the cooler
temps occuring in the cooler Southern Tier where a littler drier
air is found.

On Wednesday the trough and associated cyclonic flow combined with
some wraparound moisture will bring a chance of a few scattered
showers east of Lake Ontario. Expect a mix of clouds and sun in most
areas with cooler air aloft promoting plenty of diurnal cumulus.
Drier air arriving with incoming high pressure should bring more in
the way of sunshine later in the afternoon. Temperatures and
humidity levels will remain very comfortable with highs in the mid
70s across lower elevations and around 70 in the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A trough will exit into New England on Wednesday night, with any
lingering showers across the North Country tapering off Wednesday
evening. A ridge of high pressure across the Ohio Valley will
expand into the region behind this with skies clearing from west
to east. This combined with light winds will allow for good
radiational cooling. Expect lows in the lower to mid 50s on the
lake plains with mid 40s in some of the cooler Southern Tier
valleys.

High pressure will build across the lower lakes Thursday with
associated subsidence and dry air supporting plenty of sunshine. The
airmass will quickly moderate with highs back into the lower 80s
across lower elevations. High pressure will drift slowly towards the
east coast Thursday night with the mainly clear skies and overnight
lows in the 50s.

A closed 500 mb low near James Bay is forecast to push a trough
across our region on Friday. There will be a weak cold front with
this, with a weak warm front expected to stay to our southeast. The
more organized large scale ascent will remain north of the Canadian
border with limited convergence and moisture along the trailing
surface cold front which will move across our area. Local lake
breeze boundaries will likely end up producing better convergence
than the cold front itself, with widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible Friday afternoon and evening. Model QPF to
our south and east is likely associated with the weak warm front,
but model consensus generally keeps this out of our cwa.  The sparse
areal coverage will probably not alleviate the dry soil conditions
in most areas. These showers will taper off Friday night as the cold
front pushes east of our area and another high builds into the Great
Lakes Region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds back into the Great Lakes by Saturday and will
remain in place Sunday before drifting to the east coast Monday.
This will provide a dry and sunny holiday weekend with temperatures
in the mid 70s Saturday, warming back into the 80s by Monday for
Independence Day.

Looking a little farther ahead, the pattern may become a little more
active across the Great Lakes during the second half of next week as
zonal flow remains just north of the Canadian border and the ridge
builds northward into the midwest and Ohio Valley. This may place
our region closer to the travel corridor for one or more
thunderstorm complexes, but given the time range this is still
a low confidence forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditons remain in place across all of western and north
central New York this afternoon. Strong to severe threat should
stay east of a KART-KSYR line.

For tonight...mainly VFR conditions should persist with a low chance
of some showers developing over the eastern end of Lake Ontario.
Confidence is low for any of these moving near KART. Cigs in the
higher terrain of the western Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario
could lower to MVFR which has been included for a few hours at KJHW.

The low chance of some showers is again in play on Wednesday east of
Lake Ontario which may drift near KART as a mid-level trough passes
east.

Outlook...

Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR with no operational impact.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds in the wake of a cold front have veered to the west-
northwest...but speeds will remain below small craft advisory
thresholds. Nevertheless...this flow will create choppy conditions
today on the eastern shores of the lakes.

Surface High pressure will build across the Lower Great Lakes
tonight and Wednesday...and will remain over the region through
Thursday with generally light winds and negligible waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/LAM
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 281835
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
235 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will shift across Central and Eastern New York this
afternoon, bringing a chance of thunderstorms mainly East of
Interstate 81. In the wake of the cold front, a chance of showers
will be possible across the North Country on Wednesday, otherwise,
cooler and less humid conditions will be found through the middle
of the week. A return to warmer weather is expected by Friday,
along with the next chance of rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front stretches from the Saint Lawrence River Valley south to
central PA with a shortwave trough pivoting toward western NY this
afternoon. Visible satellite shows a clear circulation associated
with the shortwave which is bringing mostly cloudy skies across much
of western NY and will enhance storm activity east of the cold front
going into this evening. While most of the storm activity will
remain east of our forecast area, some locations east of I-81 in
Lewis county could see a strong to severe storm this afternoon as
the shortwave approaches. Mesoanalysis here shows 1000+ j/kg SBCAPE
but 0-6km shear is on the low side of favorable at 25-30 kts. SPC
maintains a marginal risk for severe storms across eastern Oswego,
eastern Jefferson and Lewis counties.

Conditions west of the the front are much more comfortable today
with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. Latest KBUF radar is
showing some isolated showers over the Niagara Frontier this
afternoon likely triggered by a combination of a lake breeze
convergence zone and synoptic forcing from the shortwave. Have
maintained chance POPs mainly extending into Niagara county for some
showers as 12z forecast soundings continue to show a lingering 700mb
cap west of the front. High temperatures today should range in the
mid to upper 70s and a little cooler along the lake shores.

Tonight...Subsidence in the wake of the shortwave will generally
provide fair weather...although some 12z models show some post
frontal showers over the eastern half of Lake Ontario as the
shortwave passes. Low temps will settle into the 50s with the cooler
temps occuring in the cooler Southern Tier where a littler drier
air is found.

On Wednesday the trough and associated cyclonic flow combined with
some wraparound moisture will bring a chance of a few scattered
showers east of Lake Ontario. Expect a mix of clouds and sun in most
areas with cooler air aloft promoting plenty of diurnal cumulus.
Drier air arriving with incoming high pressure should bring more in
the way of sunshine later in the afternoon. Temperatures and
humidity levels will remain very comfortable with highs in the mid
70s across lower elevations and around 70 in the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A trough will exit into New England on Wednesday night, with any
lingering showers across the North Country tapering off Wednesday
evening. A ridge of high pressure across the Ohio Valley will
expand into the region behind this with skies clearing from west
to east. This combined with light winds will allow for good
radiational cooling. Expect lows in the lower to mid 50s on the
lake plains with mid 40s in some of the cooler Southern Tier
valleys.

High pressure will build across the lower lakes Thursday with
associated subsidence and dry air supporting plenty of sunshine. The
airmass will quickly moderate with highs back into the lower 80s
across lower elevations. High pressure will drift slowly towards the
east coast Thursday night with the mainly clear skies and overnight
lows in the 50s.

A closed 500 mb low near James Bay is forecast to push a trough
across our region on Friday. There will be a weak cold front with
this, with a weak warm front expected to stay to our southeast. The
more organized large scale ascent will remain north of the Canadian
border with limited convergence and moisture along the trailing
surface cold front which will move across our area. Local lake
breeze boundaries will likely end up producing better convergence
than the cold front itself, with widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible Friday afternoon and evening. Model QPF to
our south and east is likely associated with the weak warm front,
but model consensus generally keeps this out of our cwa.  The sparse
areal coverage will probably not alleviate the dry soil conditions
in most areas. These showers will taper off Friday night as the cold
front pushes east of our area and another high builds into the Great
Lakes Region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds back into the Great Lakes by Saturday and will
remain in place Sunday before drifting to the east coast Monday.
This will provide a dry and sunny holiday weekend with temperatures
in the mid 70s Saturday, warming back into the 80s by Monday for
Independence Day.

Looking a little farther ahead, the pattern may become a little more
active across the Great Lakes during the second half of next week as
zonal flow remains just north of the Canadian border and the ridge
builds northward into the midwest and Ohio Valley. This may place
our region closer to the travel corridor for one or more
thunderstorm complexes, but given the time range this is still
a low confidence forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditons remain in place across all of western and north
central New York this afternoon. Strong to severe threat should
stay east of a KART-KSYR line.

For tonight...mainly VFR conditions should persist with a low chance
of some showers developing over the eastern end of Lake Ontario.
Confidence is low for any of these moving near KART. Cigs in the
higher terrain of the western Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario
could lower to MVFR which has been included for a few hours at KJHW.

The low chance of some showers is again in play on Wednesday east of
Lake Ontario which may drift near KART as a mid-level trough passes
east.

Outlook...

Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR with no operational impact.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds in the wake of a cold front have veered to the west-
northwest...but speeds will remain below small craft advisory
thresholds. Nevertheless...this flow will create choppy conditions
today on the eastern shores of the lakes.

Surface High pressure will build across the Lower Great Lakes
tonight and Wednesday...and will remain over the region through
Thursday with generally light winds and negligible waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/LAM
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH




000
FXUS61 KOKX 281817
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
217 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west this afternoon and
evening, then slowly move across the Tri-State through Wednesday.
Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through Friday. Another
cold front then approaches and passes through late Friday night
into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the front Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Persistent cloud cover continues over the area, limiting
temperature rise and instability. There are some breaks in the
clouds just to the west, so cannot rule out some hit or miss
sunshine over far western zones later this afternoon.

Latest RAP limits CAPE of 500 J/Kg or greater to basically W of
the Hudson River and over 1000 J/kg to far Western Orange County.
The updated SPC Day1 Outlook which scaled back the area under
marginal risk reflects this. The HWO has been updated to reflect
the reduced areal coverage of the slight risk (no longer covers SW
CT, NYC, Nassau County, Eastern NE NJ, and WestChester County).

Also lowered highs today to reflect lesser anticipation of any
meaningful sunshine, generally 1-2 categories across the board.

For pops, latest radar/HRRR/RAP trends support most of the area
staying dry for the remainder of this afternoon, with
showers/embedded thunderstorms moving into far W zones 20-21z.
Have not been quite so aggressive in scaling back pops, as often
get isolated cell or two out ahead of main convective line, but
still have scaled back significantly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Latest HRRR/RAP/Radar trends indicate that pops were a bit on the
high side early this evening, especially over eastern zones. Have
adjusted pops downward accordingly through 3z.

The short wave trough is forecast to gradually move east with the
trough axis nearly overhead by 6 pm Wednesday.

Any potential severe TSTMs Tuesday evening should end by midnight
with showers ending by 10z Wednesday.

SCT instability TSTMs are possible aft 16z Wednesday with the
approach of the short wave trough axis.

Temperatures are forecast near normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As has been the case for the last several weeks, still no hot
weather on tap for the region with minor fluctuations around the
mean. The mean upper trough will continue to reside across eastern
Canada, the Great Lakes, and Northeast, while an amplified upper
ridge over the western U.S. gradually flattens into early next
week. At the same time, an upper low near Hudson Bay translates
east.

At the surface, weak high pressure over the Midwest builds into the
area Thursday and then offshore Thursday night ahead of an
approaching cold front and pre-frontal trough. The latter of which
is associated with the upper low/trough working across eastern
Canada. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday into
Friday night with the best chance being across the interior where
the greatest instability will exist. Deep-layer shear increases with
the approaching upper trough. Dry air could be a limiting factor for
any organization. Cold front works east of the area Saturday morning
with high pressure to follow through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An approaching cold front passes through the region late tonight
into Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds around 10KT.

Cigs at city and western terminals 800-1300 FT through mid-
afternoon, possibly lifting to 1000-1500 FT. If so, then cigs
probably lower back near 00-01z. Showers will be possible for a
few hours, starting around midnight for the city terminals. A
thunderstorm is possible during this period, but not
likely/widespread enough to include at any terminal forecast.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Tempo or prevailing MVFR cigs possible this
afternoon.

KLGA TAF Comments: Tempo or prevailing MVFR cigs possible this
afternoon.

KEWR TAF Comments: Tempo or prevailing MVFR cigs possible this
afternoon.

KTEB TAF Comments: Cigs 1000-1500 FT could prevail all afternoon.

KHPN TAF Comments: Visibility and Cigs could remain lower than
forecast this afternoon.

KISP TAF Comments: IFR conditions could occur at any time this
afternoon - low confidence on timing.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH Sunday...

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in
showers/tstms.

.Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Minor changes were made with this update to reflect the latest
trends in observations and guidance. The forecast appears on
track.

Winds and seas are forecast to generally remain below Small Craft
Advisory/SCA levels of 25 kt and 5 feet across the Atlantic Ocean
coastal waters through the period.

Cold frontal passages with wind shifts are forecast late
Wednesday and Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
This Afternoon through Tonight: 1/5 to 2/3 of an inch of rain is
forecast, with locally higher amounts possible in stronger
convection. Based on high surface dew points and precipitable
water contents, can not rule out isolated flash flooding of low
lying and poor drainage areas in areas experiencing locally heavy
rainfall, however minor flooding is more likely in any such area.

Friday Afternoon and Evening: Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may produce localized heavy rainfall, mainly north and west of
NYC.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/Maloit/DW
NEAR TERM...Maloit
SHORT TERM...GC/Maloit
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GC/Maloit/DW
HYDROLOGY...GC/Maloit/DW




000
FXUS61 KALY 281721
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
121 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 115 PM EDT, scattered showers/thunderstorms were developing
along and ahead of a weak prefrontal trough/dewpoint boundary,
which extended from the western Adirondacks into extreme E/SE
Oneida Co, and southwest to east of BGM. Further west, a cold
front and strong upper level impulse was located across the
eastern Great Lakes region and western NYS.

Recent SPC analysis suggests SBCAPES in the 1500-2000 J/KG range
across central NYS extending into portions of the Mohawk Valley
and Schoharie CO region, with generally 500-1500 J/KG further
south and east, lowest across the mid Hudson Valley/Berkshires and
NW CT, where a low cloud deck remains most persistent.

We expect showers/thunderstorms to increase in areal coverage
along and just ahead of the aforementioned prefrontal
trough/boundary, initially across the Mohawk Valley/western
Adirondacks, then slowly advancing east/southeast closer to the
Capital Region/Saratoga Region and Lake George region later this
afternoon and closer to sunset. Any thunderstorms will be capable
of producing locally gusty winds and very heavy rainfall. As mid
level winds increase with the approach of the shortwave across the
eastern Great Lakes, isolated strong/damaging wind gusts could
occur within any merging cells and associated cold pools which are
generated, with this threat appearing mainly from Albany and
points N and W through sunset.

Perhaps the bigger threat will be localized intense downpours,
with some rainfall rates possibly reaching up to 2 inches/hour.
This could certainly lead to rapid ponding of water in poor
drainage/urban areas. If any cells train over one location for
any length of time, isolated flash flooding will be possible in
such areas, despite such recent dry conditions.

Temperatures will likely reach the lower/mid 80s in valley areas
from Albany north and west, with mainly 75-80 across higher
terrain, and in valley areas south and east of Albany.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances for convection as we head into the long holiday weekend
then fair weather is expected.

A vigorous short-wave is expected to be rotating about the base
of an upper level low near southern Hudson Bay Canada Thursday
night through Friday night. This feature will be accompanied by a
cold front at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop and move across the region in response. Have limited
pops to chance for Friday and Friday night at this time due to
timing concerns.

The upper low is modeled to move slowly eastward across eastern
Canada over the holiday weekend eventually filling in and opening
up. Our region will remain on the southern periphery of the low
through Sunday with heights rising Sunday night and Monday as
ridging builds in.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm Friday with cooler
readings by 5 to 10 degrees in the wake of the cold front for Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures are anticipated to moderate back to normal
levels for Monday Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
We continue to watch convection developing upstream at this time as
a few thunderstorms are just to the west of the Capital District
with a sct-bkn line of convection along the cold front in the
vicinity of I81.  Expectations are for this line of convection to
develop and mature as it approaches the Hudson Valley TAF locations
with a period of MVFR to possibly IFR conditions.  The best window
of opportunity would be from approximately 20Z Tuesday til 02Z
Wednesday.

Tonight depending on how much rain impacts the TAF sites, widespread
MVFR conditions are expected to develop for the overnight in the
wake of the convection with IFR conditions expected at KPOU and KPSF.

Southerly winds this afternoon with gusts into the teens and lower
20s at KALB during the afternoon. Winds will become light
and variable tonight.

Outlook...

Wed Night-Thu Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Fri-Fri Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sat: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KBUF 281719
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
119 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will shift across Central New York today, bringing a
chance of thunderstorms mainly East of Interstate 81. In the wake of
the cold front, a chance of showers will be possible across the
North Country on Wednesday, otherwise, cooler and less humid
conditions will be found through the middle of the week. A return to
warmer weather is expected by Friday, along with the next chance of
rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front is stretched from northern NY southwest to central NY
then north-central PA with a shortwave trough approaching Lake
Ontario. Visible satellite shows a clear circulation associated with
the shortwave which will work to enhance storm activity east of Lake
Ontario. Conditions west of the the front are much more comfortable
today with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. East of the front
there remains the risk for some strong to severe thunderstorms as
higher dewpoints and surface heating are contributing to 1500+ j/kg
SBCAPE per 15z mesoanalysis.

While most of the storm activity is expected east of our forecast
area some locations east of I-81 could see a strong to severe storm
this afternoon with better storm coverage triggered as the shortwave
approaches. KTYX radar shows a few showers have developed ahead of
the front and are working into the unstable air were models show 0-
6km shear may approach 40kts by mid-afternoon. SPC maintains a
marginal risk for severe storms across Oswego, eastern Jefferson and
Lewis counties. Mesomodels including the HRRR show a potential for
some showers over the Niagara Peninsula which may extend into the
Niagara Frontier counties this afternoon firing along a lake breeze
convergence zone. Have maintained chance POPs here for some showers
as 12z KBUF sounding shows a strong cap west of the front at 700mb.

Temperatures today will be some 10 degrees F lower over the western
counties than they were on Monday...as highs will be in the mid to
upper 70s. The twenty four hour difference will not be as noticeable
east of Lake Ontario though...as a complete airmass change is not
expected until the front pushes east across New England tonight.

Later tonight...subsidence in the wake of the shortwave will
generally provide fair weather...although some 12z models showing
some post frontal showers over the eastern half of Lake Ontario as
the shortwave passes. It will then be cool tonight with the mercury
generally settling into the 50s. Some 40s will be possible in the
cooler Srn Tier valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
On Wednesday the mid level trough will move from central NY at 12Z
to western New England by late afternoon. The proximity of the
trough and associated cyclonic flow combined with lingering moisture
will produce a few more scattered showers east of Lake Ontario, with
an isolated shower or two possible as far west as the Finger Lakes
and Genesee Valley. Expect a mix of clouds and sun in most areas
with the lingering moisture and cool air aloft promoting plenty of
cumulus and stratocumulus. Sunshine should increase later in the
afternoon across western NY as the deeper moisture begins to pull
away. Expect highs in the mid 70s across lower elevations and
around 70 on the hills.

A trough will exit into New England on Wednesday night, with any
lingering showers across the North Country tapering off Wednesday
evening. A ridge of high pressure across the Ohio Valley will expand
into the region behind this with skies clearing from west to east.
This combined with light winds will allow for good radiational
cooling. Expect lows in the lower to mid 50s on the lake plains with
mid 40s in some of the cooler Southern Tier valleys.

High pressure will build across the lower lakes Thursday with
associated subsidence and dry air supporting plenty of sunshine. The
airmass will quickly moderate with highs back into the lower 80s
across lower elevations. High pressure will drift slowly towards the
east coast Thursday night with the mainly clear skies and overnight
lows in the 50s.

A closed 500 mb low near James Bay is forecast to push a trough
across our region on Friday. There will be a weak cold front with
this, with a weak warm front expected to stay to our southeast. The
more organized large scale ascent will remain north of the Canadian
border with limited convergence and moisture along the trailing
surface cold front which will move across our area. Local lake
breeze boundaries will likely end up producing better convergence
than the cold front itself, with widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible Friday afternoon and evening. Model QPF to
our south and east is likely associated with the weak warm front,
but model consensus generally keeps this out of our cwa.  The sparse
areal coverage will probably not alleviate the dry soil conditions
in most areas. These showers will taper off Friday night as the cold
front pushes east of our area and another high builds into the Great
Lakes Region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds back into the Great Lakes by Saturday and will
remain in place Sunday before drifting to the east coast Monday.
This will provide a dry and sunny holiday weekend with temperatures
in the mid 70s Saturday, warming back into the 80s by Monday for
Independence Day.

Looking a little farther ahead, the pattern may become a little more
active across the Great Lakes during the second half of next week as
zonal flow remains just north of the Canadian border and the ridge
builds northward into the midwest and Ohio Valley. This may place
our region closer to the travel corridor for one or more
thunderstorm complexes, but given the time range this is still
a low confidence forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditons remain in place across all of western and north
central New York...although a weak cold front moving east of Lake
Ontario will become a focus for afternoon convection which should
stay east of KART-KSYR.

For tonight...VFR conditions should persist with a low chance of
some showers developing over the eastern end of Lake Ontario.
Confidence is low for any of these moving near KART. The low chance
of some showers is again in play on Wednesday east of Lake Ontario
as an upper level trough passes east.

Outlook...

Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR with no operational impact.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds in the wake of a cold front have veered to the west-
northwest...but speeds will remain below small craft advisory
thresholds. Nevertheless...this flow will create choppy conditions
today on the eastern shores of the lakes.

Surface High pressure will build across the Lower Great Lakes
tonight and Wednesday...and will remain over the region through
Thursday with generally light winds and negligible waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH




000
FXUS61 KALY 281717
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
117 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 115 PM EDT, scattered showers/thunderstorms were developing
along and ahead of a weak prefrontal trough/dewpoint boundary,
which extended from the western Adirondacks into extreme E/SE
Oneida Co, and southwest to east of BGM. Further west, a cold
front and strong upper level impulse was located across the
eastern Great Lakes region and western NYS.

Recent SPC analysis suggests SBCAPES in the 1500-2000 J/KG range
across central NYS extending into portions of the Mohawk Valley
and Schoharie CO region, with generally 500-1500 J/KG further
south and east, lowest across the mid Hudson Valley/Berkshires and
NW CT, where a low cloud deck remains most persistent.

We expect showers/thunderstorms to increase in areal coverage
along and just ahead of the aforementioned prefrontal
trough/boundary, initially across the Mohawk Valley/western
Adirondacks, then slowly advancing east/southeast closer to the
Capital Region/Saratoga Region and Lake George region later this
afternoon and closer to sunset. Any thunderstorms will be capable
of producing locally gusty winds and very heavy rainfall. As mid
level winds increase with the approach of the shortwave across the
eastern Great Lakes, isolated strong/damaging wind gusts could
occur within any merging cells and associated cold pools which are
generated, with this threat appearing mainly from Albany and
points N and W through sunset.

Perhaps the bigger threat will be localized intense downpours,
with some rainfall rates possibly reaching up to 2 inches/hour.
This could certainly lead to rapid ponding of water in poor
drainage/urban areas. If any cells train over one locations for
any length of time, isolated flash flooding will be possible in
such areas, despite such dry conditions.

Temperatures will likely reach the lower/mid 80s in valley areas
from Albany north and west, with mainly 75-80 across higher
terrain, and in valley areas south and east of Albany.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances for convection as we head into the long holiday weekend
then fair weather is expected.

A vigorous short-wave is expected to be rotating about the base
of an upper level low near southern Hudson Bay Canada Thursday
night through Friday night. This feature will be accompanied by a
cold front at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop and move across the region in response. Have limited
pops to chance for Friday and Friday night at this time due to
timing concerns.

The upper low is modeled to move slowly eastward across eastern
Canada over the holiday weekend eventually filling in and opening
up. Our region will remain on the southern periphery of the low
through Sunday with heights rising Sunday night and Monday as
ridging builds in.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm Friday with cooler
readings by 5 to 10 degrees in the wake of the cold front for Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures are anticipated to moderate back to normal
levels for Monday Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
We continue to watch convection developing upstream at this time as
a few thunderstorms are just to the west of the Capital District
with a sct-bkn line of convection along the cold front in the
vicinity of I81.  Expectations are for this line of convection to
develop and mature as it approaches the Hudson Valley TAF locations
with a period of MVFR to possibly IFR conditions.  The best window
of opportunity would be from approximately 20Z Tuesday til 02Z
Wednesday.

Tonight depending on how much rain impacts the TAF sites, widespread
MVFR conditions are expected to develop for the overnight in the
wake of the convection with IFR conditions expected at KPOU and KPSF.

Southerly winds this afternoon with gusts into the teens and lower
20s at KALB during the afternoon. Winds will become light
and variable tonight.

Outlook...

Wed Night-Thu Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Fri-Fri Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sat: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...BGM/IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 281717
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
117 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west this afternoon and
evening, then slowly move across the Tri-State through Wednesday.
Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through Friday. Another
cold front then approaches and passes through late Friday night
into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the front Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Persistent cloud cover continues over the area, limiting
temperature rise and instability. There are some breaks in the
clouds just to the west, so cannot rule out some hit or miss
sunshine over far western zones later this afternoon.

Latest RAP limits CAPE of 500 J/Kg or greater to basically W of
the Hudson River and over 1000 J/kg to far Western Orange County.
The updated SPC Day1 Outlook which scaled back the area under
marginal risk reflects this. The HWO has been updated to reflect
the reduced areal coverage of the slight risk (no longer covers SW
CT, NYC, Nassau County, Eastern NE NJ, and WestChester County).

Also lowered highs today to reflect lesser anticipation of any
meaningful sunshine, generally 1-2 categories across the board.

For pops, latest radar/HRRR/RAP trends support most of the area
staying dry for the remainder of this afternoon, with
showers/embedded thunderstorms moving into far W zones 20-21z.
Have not been quite so aggressive in scaling back pops, as often
get isolated cell or two out ahead of main convective line, but
still have scaled back significantly.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Latest HRRR/RAP/Radar trends indicate that pops were a bit on the
high side early this evening, especially over eastern zones. Have
adjusted pops downward accordingly through 3z.

The short wave trough is forecast to gradually move east with the
trough axis nearly overhead by 6 pm Wednesday.

Any potential severe TSTMs Tuesday evening should end by midnight
with showers ending by 10z Wednesday.

SCT instability TSTMs are possible aft 16z Wednesday with the
approach of the short wave trough axis.

Temperatures are forecast near normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As has been the case for the last several weeks, still no hot
weather on tap for the region with minor fluctuations around the
mean. The mean upper trough will continue to reside across eastern
Canada, the Great Lakes, and Northeast, while an amplified upper
ridge over the western U.S. gradually flattens into early next
week. At the same time, an upper low near Hudson Bay translates
east.

At the surface, weak high pressure over the Midwest builds into the
area Thursday and then offshore Thursday night ahead of an
approaching cold front and pre-frontal trough. The latter of which
is associated with the upper low/trough working across eastern
Canada. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday into
Friday night with the best chance being across the interior where
the greatest instability will exist. Deep-layer shear increases with
the approaching upper trough. Dry air could be a limiting factor for
any organization. Cold front works east of the area Saturday morning
with high pressure to follow through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front approaches later today and passes through the region
late tonight through Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds around 10KT.

Cigs at city and western terminals 700-1200 ft through early
afternoon, possibly lifting later this afternoon before a chance
of showers and tstms late in the day/early evening.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail all afternoon. Late
day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour or
two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall.

KLGA TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail all afternoon. Late
day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour or
two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall.

KEWR TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail all afternoon. Late
day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour or
two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail all afternoon. Late
day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour or
two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall.

KHPN TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail all afternoon.

KISP TAF Comments: Cigs 1000-1500 could prevail most of the
afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Wednesday morning...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals)
conditions possible via morning fog/low clouds and rain.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Minor changes were made with this update to reflect the latest
trends in observations and guidance. The forecast appears on
track.

Winds and seas are forecast to generally remain below Small Craft
Advisory/SCA levels of 25 kt and 5 feet across the Atlantic Ocean
coastal waters through the period.

Cold frontal passages with wind shifts are forecast late
Wednesday and Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
This Afternoon through Tonight: 1/5 to 2/3 of an inch of rain is
forecast, with locally higher amounts possible in stronger
convection. Based on high surface dew points and precipitable
water contents, can not rule out isolated flash flooding of low
lying and poor drainage areas in areas experiencing locally heavy
rainfall, however minor flooding is more likely in any such area.

Friday Afternoon and Evening: Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may produce localized heavy rainfall, mainly north and west of
NYC.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Maloit/GC/DW
NEAR TERM...Maloit
SHORT TERM...Maloit/GC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...Maloit/GC/DW
HYDROLOGY...Maloit/GC/DW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281659
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1259 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will move into the North Country today
into tonight, triggering heavy showers and strong thunderstorms. The
strongest storms will develop from the eastern slopes of the
Adirondacks eastward across Vermont, with some potentially
producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail. Scattered
showers linger into Wednesday as an upper trough swings through,
but the end of the work week will see a return of warm and dry
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 100 pm EDT Tuesday...Convection has begun on schedule and
rapidly developing. strong to isold severe stil possibility
although wind field and storm motion not that good. mesoscale
precipitation discussion issued earlier highlighting the heavy
rainfall with these slow moving storms and in-line with
previous/current thinking. again...largely localized flash
flooding potential for training storms and largely focused across
nrn vt and ne ny. no changes to on-going forecast.

Previous discussion from 958 am follows...No changes as things
are on track. already some convection along pre-frontal trof axis
as models have depicted well but still should be around/after noon
when things begin to pop. water vapor really shows healthy neg-
tilt shortwave thus just awaiting on heating and instability with
the approach of the shortwave.

Previous discussion from 706 am follows...No changes to the
forecast except to account for current observations. Radar shows
some light showers already being observed across southern St.
Lawrence County with some stubborn lower stratus across southeast
VT. In between is mostly sunny skies, though these will gradually
begin to fill in as cumulus begin to develop. Cold front as of 630
AM essentially still resides along the St. Lawrence River south to
just east of Rochester NY and will slowly advance east. Latest
HRRR and 06z runs of the BTV-4 and BTV-6 WRFs all continue to
point to an active afternoon and evening, so I`ve made no changes
to PoPs or Wx. Temps should keep climbing several degrees from
relatively mild early-morning lows, but will eventually be curbed
by greater cloud cover and developing showers/thunderstorms. Highs
upper 70s to lower/mid 80s appear on track.

Previous discussion from 355 AM follows...

Active Tuesday is in store for a large part of the North Country,
particularly focusing on an area from the Northern Adirondacks
eastward, as a slow-moving cold front will spark scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms by early this afternoon into
evening hrs. Storms will become strong to occasionally severe and
be capable of strong to at times damaging winds, small mainly sub-
severe hail, and locally heavy rainfall capable of triggering
isolated areas of flash flooding. See the Hydrology section below
for more details on the localized heavy rainfall concern.

Cold front at 06z was positioned essentially along the St.
Lawrence River southeastward to just west of Syracuse. We remain
in deep southwest flow aloft trailing back to a shortwave trough
and associated 500 mb 45-50 kt jetstreak across the southern Great
Lakes. A mild and relatively moist air mass lies ahead of the
boundary across the North Country with temperatures in the 60s to
low 70s and dewpoints generally in the lower to mid 60s. Given
these conditions, there is hardly any convective inhibition noted
on SPC`s mesoanalysis. As such, I think we`ll be off and running,
so to speak, once we get some stronger sunshine and we start to
generate some surface convergence along the front with the
southerly winds. Nearly all CAMs (convection-allowing models) show
developing showers/storms between 15-17z on the Adirondacks,
advancing into the Champlain Valley by 18-20z, and Central and
Southern VT between 19-22z. Instability is plenty sufficient for
strong to severe storms with MUCAPEs of 1500-2000 J/kg, though is
limited by poor lapse rates aloft and of a "tall, skinny CAPE"
flavor. 0-6 km shear should support organized updrafts as well
with values around 35-40 kts. Given the deep shear vectors,
multicells should be the predominant mode and primarily capable of
gusty to damaging winds. Small hail would be a secondary concern
but I can`t discount the possibility of 1" hailstones in the
strongest cells. As storms should move over the same areas,
localized heavy rainfall capable of isolated flash flooding can`t
be discounted either even given the dry conditions. Since I`ve
maintained the enhanced wording for gusty winds, small hail and
heavy rain but went with areal coverage wording (sct to numerous
showers/storms). By evening, ongoing strong/severe storms should
be focused along or just east of the Champlain Valley. Waning
instability should result in a general weakening of thunderstorms.
I`ve kept the enhanced wording for gusty winds and hail through
03z, but we should see more of a focus on heavy rain into the
evening hours.

Highs should only top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s given the
timing of storms today, with lows ranging from the upper 50s to
lower/mid 60s highest for VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 454 AM EDT Tuesday...An upper trough will move across the
region on Wednesday with a chance of showers. Models showing some
destabilization as well, so will mention a slight chance for
thunderstorms on Wednesday. SPC has Vermont in a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. However...GFS 0-6 km bulk shear
showing strongest winds shifting east of the region on Wednesday,
so not buying into SPC marginal risk at this time. Feel western
Maine and New Hampshire will have a better chance for any severe
weather on Wednesday. The upper trough will swing east of teh
region Wednesday night, with fair and dry weather expected over
the north country Wednesday night through Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 454 AM EDT Tuesday...Friday will start out dry across the
region. GFS model hinting at a chance of showers and thunderstorms
Friday afternoon into Friday night. ECMWF model keeps Friday dry
and holds off on bringing in any showers until Friday night. Thus,
forecaster confidence in Friday afternoon forecast is low at this
time. An upper trough will be over the region on Saturday, so will
keep in a chance of showers in the forecast. Models now hinting at
a dry forecast from saturday night through the 4th of July.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Lingering MVFR stratus at RUT will burn
off to VFR within the next couple hrs. Stage will then be set for
developing heavy showers and thunderstorms along a cold front,
starting around 16z Tuesday at SLK and then advancing eastward
into PBG/VT terminals after 18z. Some storms may become strong to
severe during this timeframe, producing gusty winds and associated
turbulence, lightning and brief cig/visby reductions into the
MVFR/IFR category. Tried to indicate where the best window would
be for stronger storms with a 3SM +SHRA following with a 6SM
-SHRA. See specific TAFs for timing, with later amendments likely
to address more imminent risk. General weakening trend from 03z
through 12z. Winds south 6-8 kts then becoming west to northwest
3-6 kts late in the TAF period.

Outlook 12z Wednesday through Saturday...

12z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Generally VFR, possible brief
MVFR in diurnal showers.

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with IFR/LIFR radiational
fog at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

Saturday onward...VFR/MVFR with chances for scattered showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday... Risk of heavy rainfall remains in
place for today with strong to severe thunderstorms mainly from
the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks eastward to VT this
afternoon and evening. Low-level wind fields parallel to the cold
front should lead to training of convective cells, and if
persistent enough may trigger areas of isolated flash flooding.
PWAT values are not excessively high but are around 1.4-1.6".
Flash flood guidance (FFG) is also fairly high given the relative
dryness of late. 1 hour FFG is roughly 1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is
2.3-3.0". It might be hard to see that amount of rain in just 1
hour, but if we`ve got a slow moving line with repeated cells
moving across an area for 3 hours, that 3 hour FFG is not too hard
to achieve. After collaboration with surrounding WFOs, opted to
not issue a flash flood watch but will raise awareness of the
heavy rainfall and isolated flash flood concerns with a Special
Weather Statement this morning. Any flash flooding would be
localized to small basins or small urban and mountainous
locations. Larger main-stem river flooding is not expected.
Forecast QPF values through tonight range from 1 to 1.5", but
could be higher in more localized and persistent cell training.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...Boaters should remain aware of the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms nearing Lake
Champlain early this afternoon. Storms will be capable of frequent
lightning, heavy rainfall and gusty winds capable of creating
choppy waves. Boaters should be prepared to seek safe harbor if
threatening weather approaches. A Lake Thunderstorm Advisory may
become necessary today as the situation warrants.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto/SLW
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Loconto
MARINE...Loconto




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281659
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1259 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will move into the North Country today
into tonight, triggering heavy showers and strong thunderstorms. The
strongest storms will develop from the eastern slopes of the
Adirondacks eastward across Vermont, with some potentially
producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail. Scattered
showers linger into Wednesday as an upper trough swings through,
but the end of the work week will see a return of warm and dry
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 100 pm EDT Tuesday...Convection has begun on schedule and
rapidly developing. strong to isold severe stil possibility
although wind field and storm motion not that good. mesoscale
precipitation discussion issued earlier highlighting the heavy
rainfall with these slow moving storms and in-line with
previous/current thinking. again...largely localized flash
flooding potential for training storms and largely focused across
nrn vt and ne ny. no changes to on-going forecast.

Previous discussion from 958 am follows...No changes as things
are on track. already some convection along pre-frontal trof axis
as models have depicted well but still should be around/after noon
when things begin to pop. water vapor really shows healthy neg-
tilt shortwave thus just awaiting on heating and instability with
the approach of the shortwave.

Previous discussion from 706 am follows...No changes to the
forecast except to account for current observations. Radar shows
some light showers already being observed across southern St.
Lawrence County with some stubborn lower stratus across southeast
VT. In between is mostly sunny skies, though these will gradually
begin to fill in as cumulus begin to develop. Cold front as of 630
AM essentially still resides along the St. Lawrence River south to
just east of Rochester NY and will slowly advance east. Latest
HRRR and 06z runs of the BTV-4 and BTV-6 WRFs all continue to
point to an active afternoon and evening, so I`ve made no changes
to PoPs or Wx. Temps should keep climbing several degrees from
relatively mild early-morning lows, but will eventually be curbed
by greater cloud cover and developing showers/thunderstorms. Highs
upper 70s to lower/mid 80s appear on track.

Previous discussion from 355 AM follows...

Active Tuesday is in store for a large part of the North Country,
particularly focusing on an area from the Northern Adirondacks
eastward, as a slow-moving cold front will spark scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms by early this afternoon into
evening hrs. Storms will become strong to occasionally severe and
be capable of strong to at times damaging winds, small mainly sub-
severe hail, and locally heavy rainfall capable of triggering
isolated areas of flash flooding. See the Hydrology section below
for more details on the localized heavy rainfall concern.

Cold front at 06z was positioned essentially along the St.
Lawrence River southeastward to just west of Syracuse. We remain
in deep southwest flow aloft trailing back to a shortwave trough
and associated 500 mb 45-50 kt jetstreak across the southern Great
Lakes. A mild and relatively moist air mass lies ahead of the
boundary across the North Country with temperatures in the 60s to
low 70s and dewpoints generally in the lower to mid 60s. Given
these conditions, there is hardly any convective inhibition noted
on SPC`s mesoanalysis. As such, I think we`ll be off and running,
so to speak, once we get some stronger sunshine and we start to
generate some surface convergence along the front with the
southerly winds. Nearly all CAMs (convection-allowing models) show
developing showers/storms between 15-17z on the Adirondacks,
advancing into the Champlain Valley by 18-20z, and Central and
Southern VT between 19-22z. Instability is plenty sufficient for
strong to severe storms with MUCAPEs of 1500-2000 J/kg, though is
limited by poor lapse rates aloft and of a "tall, skinny CAPE"
flavor. 0-6 km shear should support organized updrafts as well
with values around 35-40 kts. Given the deep shear vectors,
multicells should be the predominant mode and primarily capable of
gusty to damaging winds. Small hail would be a secondary concern
but I can`t discount the possibility of 1" hailstones in the
strongest cells. As storms should move over the same areas,
localized heavy rainfall capable of isolated flash flooding can`t
be discounted either even given the dry conditions. Since I`ve
maintained the enhanced wording for gusty winds, small hail and
heavy rain but went with areal coverage wording (sct to numerous
showers/storms). By evening, ongoing strong/severe storms should
be focused along or just east of the Champlain Valley. Waning
instability should result in a general weakening of thunderstorms.
I`ve kept the enhanced wording for gusty winds and hail through
03z, but we should see more of a focus on heavy rain into the
evening hours.

Highs should only top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s given the
timing of storms today, with lows ranging from the upper 50s to
lower/mid 60s highest for VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 454 AM EDT Tuesday...An upper trough will move across the
region on Wednesday with a chance of showers. Models showing some
destabilization as well, so will mention a slight chance for
thunderstorms on Wednesday. SPC has Vermont in a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. However...GFS 0-6 km bulk shear
showing strongest winds shifting east of the region on Wednesday,
so not buying into SPC marginal risk at this time. Feel western
Maine and New Hampshire will have a better chance for any severe
weather on Wednesday. The upper trough will swing east of teh
region Wednesday night, with fair and dry weather expected over
the north country Wednesday night through Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 454 AM EDT Tuesday...Friday will start out dry across the
region. GFS model hinting at a chance of showers and thunderstorms
Friday afternoon into Friday night. ECMWF model keeps Friday dry
and holds off on bringing in any showers until Friday night. Thus,
forecaster confidence in Friday afternoon forecast is low at this
time. An upper trough will be over the region on Saturday, so will
keep in a chance of showers in the forecast. Models now hinting at
a dry forecast from saturday night through the 4th of July.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Lingering MVFR stratus at RUT will burn
off to VFR within the next couple hrs. Stage will then be set for
developing heavy showers and thunderstorms along a cold front,
starting around 16z Tuesday at SLK and then advancing eastward
into PBG/VT terminals after 18z. Some storms may become strong to
severe during this timeframe, producing gusty winds and associated
turbulence, lightning and brief cig/visby reductions into the
MVFR/IFR category. Tried to indicate where the best window would
be for stronger storms with a 3SM +SHRA following with a 6SM
-SHRA. See specific TAFs for timing, with later amendments likely
to address more imminent risk. General weakening trend from 03z
through 12z. Winds south 6-8 kts then becoming west to northwest
3-6 kts late in the TAF period.

Outlook 12z Wednesday through Saturday...

12z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Generally VFR, possible brief
MVFR in diurnal showers.

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with IFR/LIFR radiational
fog at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

Saturday onward...VFR/MVFR with chances for scattered showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday... Risk of heavy rainfall remains in
place for today with strong to severe thunderstorms mainly from
the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks eastward to VT this
afternoon and evening. Low-level wind fields parallel to the cold
front should lead to training of convective cells, and if
persistent enough may trigger areas of isolated flash flooding.
PWAT values are not excessively high but are around 1.4-1.6".
Flash flood guidance (FFG) is also fairly high given the relative
dryness of late. 1 hour FFG is roughly 1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is
2.3-3.0". It might be hard to see that amount of rain in just 1
hour, but if we`ve got a slow moving line with repeated cells
moving across an area for 3 hours, that 3 hour FFG is not too hard
to achieve. After collaboration with surrounding WFOs, opted to
not issue a flash flood watch but will raise awareness of the
heavy rainfall and isolated flash flood concerns with a Special
Weather Statement this morning. Any flash flooding would be
localized to small basins or small urban and mountainous
locations. Larger main-stem river flooding is not expected.
Forecast QPF values through tonight range from 1 to 1.5", but
could be higher in more localized and persistent cell training.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...Boaters should remain aware of the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms nearing Lake
Champlain early this afternoon. Storms will be capable of frequent
lightning, heavy rainfall and gusty winds capable of creating
choppy waves. Boaters should be prepared to seek safe harbor if
threatening weather approaches. A Lake Thunderstorm Advisory may
become necessary today as the situation warrants.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto/SLW
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Loconto
MARINE...Loconto




000
FXUS61 KOKX 281555
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1155 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west this afternoon and
evening, then slowly move across the Tri-State through Wednesday.
Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through Friday. Another
cold front then approaches and passes through late Friday night
into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the front Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A short wave trough will be moving SE toward the area along with
its surface cold front reflection this afternoon.

Showers lingering a tad longer over far E Long Island than
originally forecast, so have upped pops there. Also, noting
extensive cloud cover over the area, have slowed down timing of
onset of thunder across the area, as any instability will be slow
to be achieved.

Latest high resolution models suggest that any significant CAPE
(1000 J/kg or more) will be confined to areas mainly W of the
Hudson River this afternoon. Also looking at latest regional radar
and HRRR suggest that most areas could remain dry through around
21z, so have reduced pops through this afternoon as well. In
addition, have now confined any mention of small hail, gusty winds
and heavy rain to far Western Orange county at 21z, consistent
with this.


In any case, there is a Slight Risk or severe TSTMs mainly for
Orange County and a Marginal Risk further east across NYC and SW
CT...mainly aft 20z with damaging winds being the primary threat.
The marginal risk area likely is over done, given current
expectation for significant CAPE to be focused mainly W of the
Hudson River.

An Outlook was issued for these potential hazards and impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The short wave trough is forecast to gradually move east with the
trough axis nearly overhead by 6 pm Wednesday.

Any potential severe TSTMs Tuesday evening should end by midnight
with showers ending by 10z Wednesday.

SCT instability TSTMs are possible aft 16z Wednesday with the
approach of the short wave trough axis.

Temperatures are forecast near normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As has been the case for the last several weeks, still no hot
weather on tap for the region with minor fluctuations around the
mean. The mean upper trough will continue to reside across eastern
Canada, the Great Lakes, and Northeast, while an amplified upper
ridge over the western U.S. gradually flattens into early next
week. At the same time, an upper low near Hudson Bay translates
east.

At the surface, weak high pressure over the Midwest builds into the
area Thursday and then offshore Thursday night ahead of an
approaching cold front and pre-frontal trough. The latter of which
is associated with the upper low/trough working across eastern
Canada. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday into
Friday night with the best chance being across the interior where
the greatest instability will exist. Deep-layer shear increases with
the approaching upper trough. Dry air could be a limiting factor for
any organization. Cold front works east of the area Saturday morning
with high pressure to follow through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front approaches later today and passes through the region
late tonight through Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds around 10KT.

Cigs at city and western terminals 700-1200 ft through early
afternoon, possibly lifting later this afternoon before a chance
of showers and tstms late in the day/early evening.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail all afternoon. Late
day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour or
two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall.

KLGA TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail all afternoon. Late
day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour or
two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall.

KEWR TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail all afternoon. Late
day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour or
two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail all afternoon. Late
day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour or
two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall.

KHPN TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail all afternoon.

KISP TAF Comments: Cigs 1000-1500 could prevail most of the
afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Wednesday morning...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals)
conditions possible via morning fog/low clouds and rain.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The main change was to slow down the
timing and extent of thunder of the waters this afternoon/early
this evening.

Winds and seas are forecast to generally remain below Small Craft
Advisory/SCA levels of 25 kt and 5 feet across the Atlantic Ocean
coastal waters through the period.

Cold frontal passages with wind shifts are forecast late
Wednesday and Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
This Afternoon through Tonight: 1/4 to 2/3 of an inch of rain is
forecast, with locally higher amounts possible in stronger
convection. Based on high surface dew points and precipitable
water contents, can not rule out isolated flash flooding of low
lying and poor drainage areas in areas experiencing locally heavy
rainfall.

Friday Afternoon and Evening: Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may produce localized heavy rainfall, mainly north and west of
NYC.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/DW
NEAR TERM...GC/Maloit
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...GC/Maloit/DW
HYDROLOGY...GC/DW




000
FXUS61 KBUF 281545
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1145 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will shift across Central New York today, bringing a
chance of thunderstorms mainly East of Interstate 81. In the wake of
the cold front, a chance of showers will be possible across the
North Country on Wednesday, otherwise, cooler and less humid
conditions will be found through the middle of the week. A return to
warmer weather is expected by Friday, along with the next chance of
rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front is stretched from northern NY southwest to central NY
then north-central PA with a shortwave trough approaching Lake
Ontario. Visible satellite shows a clear circulation associated with
the shortwave which will work to enhance storm activity east of Lake
Ontario. Conditions west of the the front are much more comfortable
today with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. East of the front
there remains the risk for some strong to severe thunderstorms as
higher dewpoints and surface heating are contributing to 1500+ j/kg
SBCAPE per 15z mesoanalysis.

While most of the storm activity is expected east of our forecast
area some locations east of I-81 could see a strong to severe storm
this afternoon with better storm coverage triggered as the shortwave
approaches. KTYX radar shows a few showers have developed ahead of
the front and are working into the unstable air were models show 0-
6km shear may approach 40kts by mid-afternoon. SPC maintains a
marginal risk for severe storms across Oswego, eastern Jefferson and
Lewis counties. Mesomodels including the HRRR show a potential for
some showers over the Niagara Peninsula which may extend into the
Niagara Frontier counties this afternoon firing along a lake breeze
convergence zone. Have maintained chance POPs here for some showers
as 12z KBUF sounding shows a strong cap west of the front at 700mb.

Temperatures today will be some 10 degrees F lower over the western
counties than they were on Monday...as highs will be in the mid to
upper 70s. The twenty four hour difference will not be as noticeable
east of Lake Ontario though...as a complete airmass change is not
expected until the front pushes east across New England tonight.

Later tonight...subsidence in the wake of the shortwave will
generally provide fair weather...although some 12z models showing
some post frontal showers over the eastern half of Lake Ontario as
the shortwave passes. It will then be cool tonight with the mercury
generally settling into the 50s. Some 40s will be possible in the
cooler Srn Tier valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On Wednesday the mid level trough will move from central NY at 12Z
to western New England by late afternoon. The proximity of the
trough and associated cyclonic flow combined with lingering moisture
will produce a few more scattered showers east of Lake Ontario, with
an isolated shower or two possible as far west as the Finger Lakes
and Genesee Valley. Expect a mix of clouds and sun in most areas
with the lingering moisture and cool air aloft promoting plenty of
cumulus and stratocumulus. Sunshine should increase later in the
afternoon across western NY as the deeper moisture begins to pull
away. Expect highs in the mid 70s across lower elevations and
around 70 on the hills.

The mid level trough will exit into northern New England Wednesday
night and take the deeper moisture and cyclonic flow with it. Any
isolated showers east of Lake Ontario will end during the evening
with skies clearing from west to east overnight as dry air and
subsidence build into the lower Great Lakes. The clearing skies,
light winds, and cool/dry airmass will allow for good radiational
cooling. Expect lows in the lower to mid 50s on the lake plains with
mid 40s in some of the cooler Southern Tier valleys.

High pressure builds into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes
Thursday with associated subsidence and dry air supporting plenty of
sunshine. The airmass will quickly moderate with highs back into the
lower 80s across lower elevations. High pressure will drift slowly
towards the east coast Thursday night with the mainly clear skies
continuing.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mid level trough will move east across Ontario and Quebec Friday
and Friday night, with a trailing cold front moving east across the
Great Lakes. The majority of the more organized large scale ascent
will remain north of the Canadian border with limited convergence
and moisture along the trailing surface cold front which will move
across our area. Local lake breeze boundaries will likely end up
producing better convergence than the cold front itself, with
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
Friday afternoon and evening. Coverage of any rainfall will remain
very sparse with little help to alleviate the dry soil conditions in
most areas.

High pressure builds back into the Great Lakes by Saturday and will
remain in place Sunday before drifting to the east coast Monday.
This will provide a dry and sunny holiday weekend with temperatures
in the mid 70s Saturday, warming back into the 80s by Monday for
Independence Day.

Looking a little farther ahead, the pattern may become a little more
active across the Great Lakes during the second half of next week as
zonal flow remains just north of the Canadian border and the ridge
builds northward into the midwest and Ohio Valley. This may place
our region closer to the travel corridor for one or more
thunderstorm complexes, but given the time range this is still
a low confidence forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditons remain in place across all of western and north
central New York...although a weak cold front moving east of Lake
Ontario will become a focus for afternoon convection which should
stay east of KART-KSYR.

For tonight...VFR conditions should persist with a low chance of
some showers developing over the eastern end of Lake Ontario.
Confidence is low for any of these moving near KART. The low chance
of some showers is again in play on Wednesday east of Lake Ontario
as an upper level trough passes east.

Outlook...

Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR with no operational impact.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds in the wake of a cold front have veered to the west-
northwest...but speeds will remain below small craft advisory
thresholds. Nevertheless...this flow will create choppy conditions
today on the eastern shores of the lakes.

Surface High pressure will build across the Lower Great Lakes
tonight and Wednesday...and will remain over the region through
Thursday with generally light winds and negligible waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/LAM
NEAR TERM...SMITH/RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 281545
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1145 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will shift across Central New York today, bringing a
chance of thunderstorms mainly East of Interstate 81. In the wake of
the cold front, a chance of showers will be possible across the
North Country on Wednesday, otherwise, cooler and less humid
conditions will be found through the middle of the week. A return to
warmer weather is expected by Friday, along with the next chance of
rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front is stretched from northern NY southwest to central NY
then north-central PA with a shortwave trough approaching Lake
Ontario. Visible satellite shows a clear circulation associated with
the shortwave which will work to enhance storm activity east of Lake
Ontario. Conditions west of the the front are much more comfortable
today with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. East of the front
there remains the risk for some strong to severe thunderstorms as
higher dewpoints and surface heating are contributing to 1500+ j/kg
SBCAPE per 15z mesoanalysis.

While most of the storm activity is expected east of our forecast
area some locations east of I-81 could see a strong to severe storm
this afternoon with better storm coverage triggered as the shortwave
approaches. KTYX radar shows a few showers have developed ahead of
the front and are working into the unstable air were models show 0-
6km shear may approach 40kts by mid-afternoon. SPC maintains a
marginal risk for severe storms across Oswego, eastern Jefferson and
Lewis counties. Mesomodels including the HRRR show a potential for
some showers over the Niagara Peninsula which may extend into the
Niagara Frontier counties this afternoon firing along a lake breeze
convergence zone. Have maintained chance POPs here for some showers
as 12z KBUF sounding shows a strong cap west of the front at 700mb.

Temperatures today will be some 10 degrees F lower over the western
counties than they were on Monday...as highs will be in the mid to
upper 70s. The twenty four hour difference will not be as noticeable
east of Lake Ontario though...as a complete airmass change is not
expected until the front pushes east across New England tonight.

Later tonight...subsidence in the wake of the shortwave will
generally provide fair weather...although some 12z models showing
some post frontal showers over the eastern half of Lake Ontario as
the shortwave passes. It will then be cool tonight with the mercury
generally settling into the 50s. Some 40s will be possible in the
cooler Srn Tier valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On Wednesday the mid level trough will move from central NY at 12Z
to western New England by late afternoon. The proximity of the
trough and associated cyclonic flow combined with lingering moisture
will produce a few more scattered showers east of Lake Ontario, with
an isolated shower or two possible as far west as the Finger Lakes
and Genesee Valley. Expect a mix of clouds and sun in most areas
with the lingering moisture and cool air aloft promoting plenty of
cumulus and stratocumulus. Sunshine should increase later in the
afternoon across western NY as the deeper moisture begins to pull
away. Expect highs in the mid 70s across lower elevations and
around 70 on the hills.

The mid level trough will exit into northern New England Wednesday
night and take the deeper moisture and cyclonic flow with it. Any
isolated showers east of Lake Ontario will end during the evening
with skies clearing from west to east overnight as dry air and
subsidence build into the lower Great Lakes. The clearing skies,
light winds, and cool/dry airmass will allow for good radiational
cooling. Expect lows in the lower to mid 50s on the lake plains with
mid 40s in some of the cooler Southern Tier valleys.

High pressure builds into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes
Thursday with associated subsidence and dry air supporting plenty of
sunshine. The airmass will quickly moderate with highs back into the
lower 80s across lower elevations. High pressure will drift slowly
towards the east coast Thursday night with the mainly clear skies
continuing.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mid level trough will move east across Ontario and Quebec Friday
and Friday night, with a trailing cold front moving east across the
Great Lakes. The majority of the more organized large scale ascent
will remain north of the Canadian border with limited convergence
and moisture along the trailing surface cold front which will move
across our area. Local lake breeze boundaries will likely end up
producing better convergence than the cold front itself, with
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
Friday afternoon and evening. Coverage of any rainfall will remain
very sparse with little help to alleviate the dry soil conditions in
most areas.

High pressure builds back into the Great Lakes by Saturday and will
remain in place Sunday before drifting to the east coast Monday.
This will provide a dry and sunny holiday weekend with temperatures
in the mid 70s Saturday, warming back into the 80s by Monday for
Independence Day.

Looking a little farther ahead, the pattern may become a little more
active across the Great Lakes during the second half of next week as
zonal flow remains just north of the Canadian border and the ridge
builds northward into the midwest and Ohio Valley. This may place
our region closer to the travel corridor for one or more
thunderstorm complexes, but given the time range this is still
a low confidence forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditons remain in place across all of western and north
central New York...although a weak cold front moving east of Lake
Ontario will become a focus for afternoon convection which should
stay east of KART-KSYR.

For tonight...VFR conditions should persist with a low chance of
some showers developing over the eastern end of Lake Ontario.
Confidence is low for any of these moving near KART. The low chance
of some showers is again in play on Wednesday east of Lake Ontario
as an upper level trough passes east.

Outlook...

Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR with no operational impact.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds in the wake of a cold front have veered to the west-
northwest...but speeds will remain below small craft advisory
thresholds. Nevertheless...this flow will create choppy conditions
today on the eastern shores of the lakes.

Surface High pressure will build across the Lower Great Lakes
tonight and Wednesday...and will remain over the region through
Thursday with generally light winds and negligible waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/LAM
NEAR TERM...SMITH/RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 281538
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1138 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region
primarily this afternoon. Some of the thunderstorms could produce
damaging winds mainly in the western Catskills, Poconos and
Wyoming valley in northeast Pennsylvania. Mainly dry and cooler
weather will follow the front through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 am update... Lower stratus clouds continue to slowly erode
across the Poconos and western Catskills late this morning, while
the rest of the region was enjoying sunshine. Partly-mostly sunny
skies should prevail area-wide through midday/early afternoon,
with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s-lower 80s.

The main focus continues to be the likelihood of thunderstorms
this afternoon/early evening, with some potential for isolated
strong-severe development. As of late morning, a slow moving
surface cold front was located just west of our forecast area,
across western NY/northwest PA. At the same time, a well defined
short-wave feature was evident on both satellite and meso-analysis
data over Lake Huron/southern Ontario. This is the real feature of
interest, as it could provide sufficient forced lift/vertical
shear/steeper mid-level lapse rates for more organized convection
later today, as it sweeps eastward. Its passage would seem well
timed with peak heating this afternoon, along with some higher
surface dew points (in the 60s) along and east of the
aforementioned surface front. Thus, we`ve continued with fairly
high POP`s (70+%) for areas near and east of the I-81 corridor,
from mid-afternoon til early evening.

Once again, available buoyancy (ML Capes of 1000-1500, maybe
locally near 2000 j/kg) and deep-layered shear (0-6 km values
around 40 kt) could support organized storm clusters/linear
features, and perhaps isolated supercells. We will be watching
this closely later today. The mention of gusty winds, hail, and
locally heavy rain remains in the forecast this
afternoon/evening.

Previous discussion... Early this morning a surface cold front
was moving through western New York as the associated upper level
trof and jet dynamics was well to the west over the central lakes.
As this front approaches the western forecast area primarily
scattered showers will develop by mid morning. Models continue to
show the convection along this boundary will intensify early this
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes and the upper level wave
and associated jet dynamics synch up with the surface feature. By
this time the airmass from I81 east is forecast to have ML CAPE
values of 1500-2000 J/KG (NAM) with the GFS around 800 J/KG. An
average value around 1200 J/KG seems reasonable along with deep
shear values around 40 knots. These values indicate the potential
for severe weather today and SPC continues to have the area
primarily from I81 east in a slight risk. The limiting factor
continues to be weak mid level lapse rates which may result in
tall/skinny CAPE if dewpoints don`t reach the upper 60s to around
70. The primary threat continues to be damaging winds although
very heavy downpours are also possible as PWATs are near 1.50
inches. Recent dry stretch has resulted in dry antecedent
conditions which should limit any hydro concerns. The best chances
for severe weather will reside in the western Catskills, Poconos
and Wyoming valley in northeast Pennsylvania. This activity may
linger into the early evening hours in the far southeast then end.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
On wednesday a weak secondary surface trof may trigger some light
showers so will continue with slight chc pops for much of the
area. Wednesday night through Thursday night the region will
remain dry with surface high pressure moving from the Ohio valley
east across the vicinity to the eastern seaboard by Thursday
night. It will be cool during the overnight periods with lows in
the upper 40s to middle 50s and highs in the 70s on Wednesday
rising to around 80 on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
11 am update...

For this period mostly dry with an upper level trough over the
northeast US and high pressure at the surface. Storm track Midwest
to the middle Atlantic. Temperatures near or slightly below
normal. Friday night the slow moving trough is over the area so a
chance of showers all night and maybe an evening thunderstorm. The
trough moves slowly east over the weekend. Maybe some showers
Tuesday night on with more of a zonal flow aloft and warm front at
the surface.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
11 am update...

VFR has returned. Still expecting thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon. One now in Oneida east of KRME. Timing of thunderstorms
decent and covered by TEMPO mvfr.

previous discussion...
A line of thunderstorms will impact especially KAVP this
afternoon with gusty winds and IFR vsbys possible between 19Z and
23Z. At KELM/KITH/KBGM/KRME the line may initially develop near or
just southeast of these terminals (17Z- 21Z). While gusty winds
and brief IFR vsbys are possible here, the likelihood and duration
will be shorter thus a more narrow tempo group was used or leaving
out a mention of thunderstorms all together.


VFR tonight except valley fog with IFR vsbys possible at KELM.

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR except valley fog at KELM.

Friday...Although VFR expected much of the time, brief
restrictions with showers/thunderstorms are possible.

Sat...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...Heden




000
FXUS61 KALY 281520
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1120 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1100 AM EDT...

...Continuing to closely monitor the potential for severe
thunderstorms across much of the region this afternoon into this
evening...

Cold front appears to be along the I81 corridor yet ample stratus
was lingering across most of our local region. This has slowed
down the heating a bit but several breaks are noticeable in the
Schoharie Valley and through the Adirondacks. LAPS/SPC Mesoscale
windows show SBCAPES climbing to around 1k J/KG (especially where
breaks are more pronounced and along differential heating
boundaries) with PWATS generally between 1-1.25" which is near to
just above normal. Expectations are as the upper trough over
Michigan approaches and a surface focus with the slow moving
frontal boundary that convection should initiate over the next
couple of hours as we approach and exceed our convective
temperature. SPC continues with the slight risk at this time as
wet microbursts appear to be the main severe threat. As for
rainfall, while anomalies are not too high and antecedent dry
conditions of late, there is an outside chance for flooding/flash
flooding as training of convection could occur due to slow
movement of the surface front and modest winds aloft. So for this
update, removed pops up til noon then continued with the higher
pops through the afternoon and evening hours. Slowed down the
diurnal temperature climb a bit along with more clouds initially
before become partly sunny.

Prev disc...
A moist and increasingly unstable air mass will be in place
today. Already early this morning temperatures are quite mild in
the 60s, with dewpoints also in the 60s making it humid. Lots of
low stratus clouds around, but most of the area will see breaks
of sunshine by late morning into early afternoon, which will allow
for moderate instability to develop. The only area where the
stratus clouds and more stable conditions could hold on longer is
across eastern Dutchess, southern Berkshire, and Litchfield
counties where there is a Marginal Risk of severe storms, compared
to the greater Slight Risk farther west across the rest of the
area.

Large-scale ascent will result from low level convergence along a
slow moving cold front that will track eastward across the region
this afternoon and evening, combined with cyclonic vorticity
advection ahead of an upper level trough pushing eastward through
the eastern Great Lakes. This pattern will result in widespread
development of showers and storms, with hi-res models indicating
convective initiation across the western Adirondacks and Mohawk
Valley by early this afternoon. Storms will intensify and move
eastward into the Catskills and Hudson valley by mid to late
afternoon.

Thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind the primary
threat. SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg will provide enough
buoyancy to maintain persistent multicells given increasing deep
layer shear of 30-40 kt. Mitigating factor to large hail will be
relatively weak mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and `thin`
CAPE profile aloft. However, forecast sounding profiles also
showing potential for heavy rainfall within storms, which could
result in isolated flash flooding. See hydro section for details.

Showers and storms will move into western New England during the
evening, and should tend to weaken but still may produce gusty
winds and downpours.

High temps expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in most
locations, but will drop into the 60s during any persistent
showers or storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances for convection as we head into the long holiday weekend
then fair weather is expected.

A vigorous short-wave is expected to be rotating about the base
of an upper level low near southern Hudson Bay Canada Thursday
night through Friday night. This feature will be accompanied by a
cold front at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop and move across the region in response. Have limited
pops to chance for Friday and Friday night at this time due to
timing concerns.

The upper low is modeled to move slowly eastward across eastern
Canada over the holiday weekend eventually filling in and opening
up. Our region will remain on the southern periphery of the low
through Sunday with heights rising Sunday night and Monday as
ridging builds in.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm Friday with cooler
readings by 5 to 10 degrees in the wake of the cold front for Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures are anticipated to moderate back to normal
levels for Monday Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected to improve to VFR this morning.
Convection will develop across the area impacting the TAFs sites
this afternoon and evening as cold front approaches and gradually
crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection will initiate by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours and the
evening hours. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and this
will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew points in
the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The primary threat
will be strong to damaging winds gusts along with locally heavy
rainfall.

Widespread MVFR conditions are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection with IFR conditions expected at
KPOU and KPSF.

Southerly winds today with gusts into the teens at KALB during
the afternoon. Winds will become light tonight.

Outlook...

Wed Night-Thu Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Fri-Fri Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sat: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 281518
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1118 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west this afternoon and
evening, then slowly move across the Tri-State through Wednesday.
Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through Friday. Another
cold front then approaches and passes through late Friday night
into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the front Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A short wave trough will be moving SE toward the area along with
its surface cold front reflection this afternoon.

Showers lingering a tad longer over far E Long Island than
originally forecast, so have upped pops there. Also, noting
extensive cloud cover over the area, have slowed down timing of
onset of thunder across the area, as any instability will be slow
to be achieved.

Latest high resolution models suggest that any significant CAPE
(1000 J/kg or more) will be confined to areas mainly W of the
Hudson River this afternoon. Also looking at latest regional radar
and HRRR suggest that most areas could remain dry through around
21z, so have reduced pops through this afternoon as well. In
addition, have now confined any mention of small hail, gusty winds
and heavy rain to far Western Orange county at 21z, consistent
with this.


In any case, there is a Slight Risk or severe TSTMs mainly for
Orange County and a Marginal Risk further east across NYC and SW
CT...mainly aft 20z with damaging winds being the primary threat.
The marginal risk area likely is over done, given current
expectation for significant CAPE to be focused mainly W of the
Hudson River.

An Outlook was issued for these potential hazards and impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The short wave trough is forecast to gradually move east with the
trough axis nearly overhead by 6 pm Wednesday.

Any potential severe TSTMs Tuesday evening should end by midnight
with showers ending by 10z Wednesday.

SCT instability TSTMs are possible aft 16z Wednesday with the
approach of the short wave trough axis.

Temperatures are forecast near normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As has been the case for the last several weeks, still no hot
weather on tap for the region with minor fluctuations around the
mean. The mean upper trough will continue to reside across eastern
Canada, the Great Lakes, and Northeast, while an amplified upper
ridge over the western U.S. gradually flattens into early next
week. At the same time, an upper low near Hudson Bay translates
east.

At the surface, weak high pressure over the Midwest builds into the
area Thursday and then offshore Thursday night ahead of an
approaching cold front and pre-frontal trough. The latter of which
is associated with the upper low/trough working across eastern
Canada. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday into
Friday night with the best chance being across the interior where
the greatest instability will exist. Deep-layer shear increases with
the approaching upper trough. Dry air could be a limiting factor for
any organization. Cold front works east of the area Saturday morning
with high pressure to follow through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front approaches later today and passes through the region
late tonight through Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds around 10KT.

Cigs around 1000ft into early afternoon, possibly lifting later this
afternoon before a chance of showers and tstms late in the day.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail through at least 17-18z.
Late day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour or
two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall.

KLGA TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail through at least 17-18z.
Late day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour
or two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall.

KEWR TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail through at least 17-
18z,and MVFR cigs might not materialize. Late day/early evening
shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour or two...forecast is more
likely to be too early with rainfall.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail through at least 17-18z.
Late day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour
or two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall.

KHPN TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail most of the day.

KISP TAF Comments: VFR could prevail through the rest of the morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Wednesday morning...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals)
conditions possible via morning fog/low clouds and rain.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The main change was to slow down the
timing and extent of thunder of the waters this afternoon/early
this evening.

Winds and seas are forecast to generally remain below Small Craft
Advisory/SCA levels of 25 kt and 5 feet across the Atlantic Ocean
coastal waters through the period.

Cold frontal passages with wind shifts are forecast late
Wednesday and Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
This Afternoon through Tonight: 1/4 to 2/3 of an inch of rain is
forecast, with locally higher amounts possible in stronger
convection. Based on high surface dew points and precipitable
water contents, can not rule out isolated flash flooding of low
lying and poor drainage areas in areas experiencing locally heavy
rainfall.

Friday Afternoon and Evening: Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may produce localized heavy rainfall, mainly north and west of
NYC.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Maloit/GC/DW
NEAR TERM...Maloit/GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...Maloit/GC/DW
HYDROLOGY...Maloit/GC/DW




000
FXUS61 KBGM 281425
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1025 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region
primarily this afternoon. Some of the thunderstorms could produce
damaging winds mainly in the western Catskills, Poconos and
Wyoming valley in northeast Pennsylvania. Mainly dry and cooler
weather will follow the front through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 am update... Lower stratus clouds continue to slowly erode
across the Poconos and western Catskills late this morning, while
the rest of the region was enjoying sunshine. Partly-mostly sunny
skies should prevail area-wide through midday/early afternoon,
with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s-lower 80s.

The main focus continues to be the likelihood of thunderstorms
this afternoon/early evening, with some potential for isolated
strong-severe development. As of late morning, a slow moving
surface cold front was located just west of our forecast area,
across western NY/northwest PA. At the same time, a well defined
short-wave feature was evident on both satellite and meso-analysis
data over Lake Huron/southern Ontario. This is the real feature of
interest, as it could provide sufficient forced lift/vertical
shear/steeper mid-level lapse rates for more organized convection
later today, as it sweeps eastward. Its passage would seem well
timed with peak heating this afternoon, along with some higher
surface dew points (in the 60s) along and east of the
aforementioned surface front. Thus, we`ve continued with fairly
high POP`s (70+%) for areas near and east of the I-81 corridor,
from mid-afternoon til early evening.

Once again, available buoyancy (ML Capes of 1000-1500, maybe
locally near 2000 j/kg) and deep-layered shear (0-6 km values
around 40 kt) could support organized storm clusters/linear
features, and perhaps isolated supercells. We will be watching
this closely later today. The mention of gusty winds, hail, and
locally heavy rain remains in the forecast this
afternoon/evening.

Previous discussion... Early this morning a surface cold front
was moving through western New York as the associated upper level
trof and jet dynamics was well to the west over the central lakes.
As this front approaches the western forecast area primarily
scattered showers will develop by mid morning. Models continue to
show the convection along this boundary will intensify early this
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes and the upper level wave
and associated jet dynamics synch up with the surface feature. By
this time the airmass from I81 east is forecast to have ML CAPE
values of 1500-2000 J/KG (NAM) with the GFS around 800 J/KG. An
average value around 1200 J/KG seems reasonable along with deep
shear values around 40 knots. These values indicate the potential
for severe weather today and SPC continues to have the area
primarily from I81 east in a slight risk. The limiting factor
continues to be weak mid level lapse rates which may result in
tall/skinny CAPE if dewpoints don`t reach the upper 60s to around
70. The primary threat continues to be damaging winds although
very heavy downpours are also possible as PWATs are near 1.50
inches. Recent dry stretch has resulted in dry antecedent
conditions which should limit any hydro concerns. The best chances
for severe weather will reside in the western Catskills, Poconos
and Wyoming valley in northeast Pennsylvania. This activity may
linger into the early evening hours in the far southeast then end.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On wednesday a weak secondary surface trof may trigger some light
showers so will continue with slight chc pops for much of the
area. Wednesday night through Thursday night the region will
remain dry with surface high pressure moving from the Ohio valley
east across the vicinity to the eastern seaboard by Thursday
night. It will be cool during the overnight periods with lows in
the upper 40s to middle 50s and highs in the 70s on Wednesday
rising to around 80 on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
215 pm update... A progressive, fairly dry pattern overall, is
likely to continue this period.

An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front are
progged to impact the region Friday into Friday night. As such, we
have chance probabilities (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms.

Thereafter, it appears that we could have another extended stretch
of rain-free weather, with slowly building heights aloft, and
incoming surface high pressure.

Temperatures look fairly seasonable, with highs Friday mostly in
the 80s, dropping back a bit to the upper 70s-lower 80s for the
rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low clouds with MVFR cigs at KAVP, dense fog and low cigs at KELM
and KBGM will rapidly improve between now and 14Z with a return to
VFR weather. A line of thunderstorms will impact especially KAVP
this afternoon with gusty winds and IFR vsbys possible between 19Z
and 23Z. At KELM/KITH/KBGM/KRME the line may initially develop
near or just southeast of these terminals (17Z-21Z). While gusty
winds and brief IFR vsbys are possible here, the likelihood and
duration will be shorter thus a more narrow tempo group was used
or leaving out a mention of thunderstorms all together.


VFR tonight except valley fog with IFR vsbys possible at KELM.

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR except valley fog at KELM.

Friday...Although VFR expected much of the time, brief
restrictions with showers/thunderstorms are possible.

Sat...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...Heden




000
FXUS61 KBGM 281425
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1025 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region
primarily this afternoon. Some of the thunderstorms could produce
damaging winds mainly in the western Catskills, Poconos and
Wyoming valley in northeast Pennsylvania. Mainly dry and cooler
weather will follow the front through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 am update... Lower stratus clouds continue to slowly erode
across the Poconos and western Catskills late this morning, while
the rest of the region was enjoying sunshine. Partly-mostly sunny
skies should prevail area-wide through midday/early afternoon,
with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s-lower 80s.

The main focus continues to be the likelihood of thunderstorms
this afternoon/early evening, with some potential for isolated
strong-severe development. As of late morning, a slow moving
surface cold front was located just west of our forecast area,
across western NY/northwest PA. At the same time, a well defined
short-wave feature was evident on both satellite and meso-analysis
data over Lake Huron/southern Ontario. This is the real feature of
interest, as it could provide sufficient forced lift/vertical
shear/steeper mid-level lapse rates for more organized convection
later today, as it sweeps eastward. Its passage would seem well
timed with peak heating this afternoon, along with some higher
surface dew points (in the 60s) along and east of the
aforementioned surface front. Thus, we`ve continued with fairly
high POP`s (70+%) for areas near and east of the I-81 corridor,
from mid-afternoon til early evening.

Once again, available buoyancy (ML Capes of 1000-1500, maybe
locally near 2000 j/kg) and deep-layered shear (0-6 km values
around 40 kt) could support organized storm clusters/linear
features, and perhaps isolated supercells. We will be watching
this closely later today. The mention of gusty winds, hail, and
locally heavy rain remains in the forecast this
afternoon/evening.

Previous discussion... Early this morning a surface cold front
was moving through western New York as the associated upper level
trof and jet dynamics was well to the west over the central lakes.
As this front approaches the western forecast area primarily
scattered showers will develop by mid morning. Models continue to
show the convection along this boundary will intensify early this
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes and the upper level wave
and associated jet dynamics synch up with the surface feature. By
this time the airmass from I81 east is forecast to have ML CAPE
values of 1500-2000 J/KG (NAM) with the GFS around 800 J/KG. An
average value around 1200 J/KG seems reasonable along with deep
shear values around 40 knots. These values indicate the potential
for severe weather today and SPC continues to have the area
primarily from I81 east in a slight risk. The limiting factor
continues to be weak mid level lapse rates which may result in
tall/skinny CAPE if dewpoints don`t reach the upper 60s to around
70. The primary threat continues to be damaging winds although
very heavy downpours are also possible as PWATs are near 1.50
inches. Recent dry stretch has resulted in dry antecedent
conditions which should limit any hydro concerns. The best chances
for severe weather will reside in the western Catskills, Poconos
and Wyoming valley in northeast Pennsylvania. This activity may
linger into the early evening hours in the far southeast then end.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On wednesday a weak secondary surface trof may trigger some light
showers so will continue with slight chc pops for much of the
area. Wednesday night through Thursday night the region will
remain dry with surface high pressure moving from the Ohio valley
east across the vicinity to the eastern seaboard by Thursday
night. It will be cool during the overnight periods with lows in
the upper 40s to middle 50s and highs in the 70s on Wednesday
rising to around 80 on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
215 pm update... A progressive, fairly dry pattern overall, is
likely to continue this period.

An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front are
progged to impact the region Friday into Friday night. As such, we
have chance probabilities (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms.

Thereafter, it appears that we could have another extended stretch
of rain-free weather, with slowly building heights aloft, and
incoming surface high pressure.

Temperatures look fairly seasonable, with highs Friday mostly in
the 80s, dropping back a bit to the upper 70s-lower 80s for the
rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low clouds with MVFR cigs at KAVP, dense fog and low cigs at KELM
and KBGM will rapidly improve between now and 14Z with a return to
VFR weather. A line of thunderstorms will impact especially KAVP
this afternoon with gusty winds and IFR vsbys possible between 19Z
and 23Z. At KELM/KITH/KBGM/KRME the line may initially develop
near or just southeast of these terminals (17Z-21Z). While gusty
winds and brief IFR vsbys are possible here, the likelihood and
duration will be shorter thus a more narrow tempo group was used
or leaving out a mention of thunderstorms all together.


VFR tonight except valley fog with IFR vsbys possible at KELM.

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR except valley fog at KELM.

Friday...Although VFR expected much of the time, brief
restrictions with showers/thunderstorms are possible.

Sat...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...Heden




000
FXUS61 KOKX 281359
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
959 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front over western Pennsylvania this morning will move
slowly east today passing across the area on Wednesday. Weak
high pressure returns for Thursday through Friday. Another cold
front then approaches and passes through late Friday night into
Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the front Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Dissipating band of showers across far eastern LI will work east
through mid morning. For the rest of the morning, there will be a
low chance of showers until airmass destabilizes enough to
warrant the mention of thunderstorms this afternoon. However, did
keep LI and CT showers through the day based on marine air keeping
the region stable. In fact, any strong convection across the
interior is not likely until late this afternoon. There is
definitely a good deal of uncertainty as to whether this activity
will be able to reach the coast late today into this evening.

Otherwise, low stratus and patchy fog, locally dense will prevail
until around 15z.

A short wave trough will be moving SE toward the area along with
its` surface cold front reflection. With abundant low level
moisture in place and the cold front serving as the trigger, SCT
TSTMS are forecast to develop ahead of the cold front and move
toward the Lower Hudson Valley and Northern NJ aft 18z. The degree
of surface based instability is uncertain based on clouds
dissipating upstream.

In any case, there is a Slight Risk or severe TSTMs mainly for
Orange County and a Marginal Risk further east across NYC and SW
CT...mainly aft 20z with damaging winds being the primary threat.
Based on high sfc dew points and precipitable water contents, can
not rule out isolated flash flooding of low lying and poor
drainage areas.

An Outlook was issued for these potential hazards and impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The short wave trough is forecast to gradually move east with the
trough axis nearly overhead by 6 pm Wednesday.

Any potential severe TSTMs Tuesday evening should end by midnight
with showers ending by 10z Wednesday.

SCT instability TSTMs are possible aft 16z Wednesday with the
approach of the short wave trough axis.

Temperatures are forecast near normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As has been the case for the last several weeks, still no hot
weather on tap for the region with minor fluctuations around the
mean. The mean upper trough will continue to reside across eastern
Canada, the Great Lakes, and Northeast, while an amplified upper
ridge over the western U.S. gradually flattens into early next
week. At the same time, an upper low near Hudson Bay translates
east.

At the surface, weak high pressure over the Midwest builds into the
area Thursday and then offshore Thursday night ahead of an
approaching cold front and pre-frontal trough. The latter of which
is associated with the upper low/trough working across eastern
Canada. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday into
Friday night with the best chance being across the interior where
the greatest instability will exist. Deep-layer shear increases with
the approaching upper trough. Dry air could be a limiting factor for
any organization. Cold front works east of the area Saturday morning
with high pressure to follow through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front approaches later today and passes through the region
late tonight through Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds around 10KT.

Cigs around 1000ft into early afternoon, possibly lifting later this
afternoon before a chance of showers and tstms late in the day.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail through at least 17-18z.
Late day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour or
two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall.

KLGA TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail through at least 17-18z.
Late day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour
or two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall.

KEWR TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail through at least 17-
18z,and MVFR cigs might not materialize. Late day/early evening
shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour or two...forecast is more
likely to be too early with rainfall.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail through at least 17-18z.
Late day/early evening shra/tstm timing could be off by an hour
or two...forecast is more likely to be too early with rainfall.

KHPN TAF Comments: IFR cigs could prevail most of the day.

KISP TAF Comments: VFR could prevail through the rest of the morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Wednesday morning...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals)
conditions possible via morning fog/low clouds and rain.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are forecast to generally remain below Small Craft
Advisory/SCA levels of 25 kt and 5 feet across the Atlantic Ocean
coastal waters through the period.

This Morning...Vsby of 1 to 3 nm possible in patchy fog with
scattered showers.

Late Afternoon through Tonight...Scattered TSTMs are possible with
the approach of a cold front along with Vsby of 1 to 3 NM in
patchy fog.

Cold frontal passages with wind shifts are forecast late
Wednesday and Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
This Morning: Up to 1/2-inch rainfall is possible across Long
Island and Southern CT.

This Afternoon through Tonight: 1/4 to 3/4-inches possible with
isolated higher amounts in heavier showers and SCT TSTMS. Can not
rule out isolated flash flooding of low lying poor drainage areas.

Friday Afternoon and Evening: Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may produce localized heavy rainfall, mainly north and west of
NYC.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/DW
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...GC/DW
HYDROLOGY...GC/DW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281358
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
958 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will move into the North Country today
into tonight, triggering heavy showers and strong thunderstorms. The
strongest storms will develop from the eastern slopes of the
Adirondacks eastward across Vermont, with some potentially
producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail. Scattered
showers linger into Wednesday as an upper trough swings through,
but the end of the work week will see a return of warm and dry
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 949 AM EDT Tuesday...No changes as things are on track.
already some convection along pre-frontal trof axis as models have
depicted well but still should be around/after noon when things
begin to pop. water vapor really shows healthy neg-tilt shortwave
thus just awaiting on heating and instability with the approach of
the shortwave.

Previous discussion from 706 am follows...No changes to the
forecast except to account for current observations. Radar shows
some light showers already being observed across southern St.
Lawrence County with some stubborn lower stratus across southeast
VT. In between is mostly sunny skies, though these will gradually
begin to fill in as cumulus begin to develop. Cold front as of 630
AM essentially still resides along the St. Lawrence River south to
just east of Rochester NY and will slowly advance east. Latest
HRRR and 06z runs of the BTV-4 and BTV-6 WRFs all continue to
point to an active afternoon and evening, so I`ve made no changes
to PoPs or Wx. Temps should keep climbing several degrees from
relatively mild early-morning lows, but will eventually be curbed
by greater cloud cover and developing showers/thunderstorms. Highs
upper 70s to lower/mid 80s appear on track.

Previous discussion from 355 AM follows...

Active Tuesday is in store for a large part of the North Country,
particularly focusing on an area from the Northern Adirondacks
eastward, as a slow-moving cold front will spark scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms by early this afternoon into
evening hrs. Storms will become strong to occasionally severe and
be capable of strong to at times damaging winds, small mainly sub-
severe hail, and locally heavy rainfall capable of triggering
isolated areas of flash flooding. See the Hydrology section below
for more details on the localized heavy rainfall concern.

Cold front at 06z was positioned essentially along the St.
Lawrence River southeastward to just west of Syracuse. We remain
in deep southwest flow aloft trailing back to a shortwave trough
and associated 500 mb 45-50 kt jetstreak across the southern Great
Lakes. A mild and relatively moist air mass lies ahead of the
boundary across the North Country with temperatures in the 60s to
low 70s and dewpoints generally in the lower to mid 60s. Given
these conditions, there is hardly any convective inhibition noted
on SPC`s mesoanalysis. As such, I think we`ll be off and running,
so to speak, once we get some stronger sunshine and we start to
generate some surface convergence along the front with the
southerly winds. Nearly all CAMs (convection-allowing models) show
developing showers/storms between 15-17z on the Adirondacks,
advancing into the Champlain Valley by 18-20z, and Central and
Southern VT between 19-22z. Instability is plenty sufficient for
strong to severe storms with MUCAPEs of 1500-2000 J/kg, though is
limited by poor lapse rates aloft and of a "tall, skinny CAPE"
flavor. 0-6 km shear should support organized updrafts as well
with values around 35-40 kts. Given the deep shear vectors,
multicells should be the predominant mode and primarily capable of
gusty to damaging winds. Small hail would be a secondary concern
but I can`t discount the possibility of 1" hailstones in the
strongest cells. As storms should move over the same areas,
localized heavy rainfall capable of isolated flash flooding can`t
be discounted either even given the dry conditions. Since I`ve
maintained the enhanced wording for gusty winds, small hail and
heavy rain but went with areal coverage wording (sct to numerous
showers/storms). By evening, ongoing strong/severe storms should
be focused along or just east of the Champlain Valley. Waning
instability should result in a general weakening of thunderstorms.
I`ve kept the enhanced wording for gusty winds and hail through
03z, but we should see more of a focus on heavy rain into the
evening hours.

Highs should only top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s given the
timing of storms today, with lows ranging from the upper 50s to
lower/mid 60s highest for VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 454 AM EDT Tuesday...An upper trough will move across the
region on Wednesday with a chance of showers. Models showing some
destabilization as well, so will mention a slight chance for
thunderstorms on Wednesday. SPC has Vermont in a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. However...GFS 0-6 km bulk shear
showing strongest winds shifting east of the region on Wednesday,
so not buying into SPC marginal risk at this time. Feel western
Maine and New Hampshire will have a better chance for any severe
weather on Wednesday. The upper trough will swing east of teh
region Wednesday night, with fair and dry weather expected over
the north country Wednesday night through Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 454 AM EDT Tuesday...Friday will start out dry across the
region. GFS model hinting at a chance of showers and thunderstorms
Friday afternoon into Friday night. ECMWF model keeps Friday dry
and holds off on bringing in any showers until Friday night. Thus,
forecaster confidence in Friday afternoon forecast is low at this
time. An upper trough will be over the region on Saturday, so will
keep in a chance of showers in the forecast. Models now hinting at
a dry forecast from saturday night through the 4th of July.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Lingering MVFR stratus at RUT will burn
off to VFR within the next couple hrs. Stage will then be set for
developing heavy showers and thunderstorms along a cold front,
starting around 16z Tuesday at SLK and then advancing eastward
into PBG/VT terminals after 18z. Some storms may become strong to
severe during this timeframe, producing gusty winds and associated
turbulence, lightning and brief cig/visby reductions into the
MVFR/IFR category. Tried to indicate where the best window would
be for stronger storms with a 3SM +SHRA following with a 6SM
-SHRA. See specific TAFs for timing, with later amendments likely
to address more imminent risk. General weakening trend from 03z
through 12z. Winds south 6-8 kts then becoming west to northwest
3-6 kts late in the TAF period.

Outlook 12z Wednesday through Saturday...

12z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Generally VFR, possible brief
MVFR in diurnal showers.

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with IFR/LIFR radiational
fog at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

Saturday onward...VFR/MVFR with chances for scattered showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday... Risk of heavy rainfall remains in
place for today with strong to severe thunderstorms mainly from
the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks eastward to VT this
afternoon and evening. Low-level wind fields parallel to the cold
front should lead to training of convective cells, and if
persistent enough may trigger areas of isolated flash flooding.
PWAT values are not excessively high but are around 1.4-1.6".
Flash flood guidance (FFG) is also fairly high given the relative
dryness of late. 1 hour FFG is roughly 1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is
2.3-3.0". It might be hard to see that amount of rain in just 1
hour, but if we`ve got a slow moving line with repeated cells
moving across an area for 3 hours, that 3 hour FFG is not too hard
to achieve. After collaboration with surrounding WFOs, opted to
not issue a flash flood watch but will raise awareness of the
heavy rainfall and isolated flash flood concerns with a Special
Weather Statement this morning. Any flash flooding would be
localized to small basins or small urban and mountainous
locations. Larger main-stem river flooding is not expected.
Forecast QPF values through tonight range from 1 to 1.5", but
could be higher in more localized and persistent cell training.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...Boaters should remain aware of the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms nearing Lake
Champlain early this afternoon. Storms will be capable of frequent
lightning, heavy rainfall and gusty winds capable of creating
choppy waves. Boaters should be prepared to seek safe harbor if
threatening weather approaches. A Lake Thunderstorm Advisory may
become necessary today as the situation warrants.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto/SLW
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Loconto
MARINE...Loconto




000
FXUS61 KOKX 281152
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
752 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front over western Pennsylvania this morning will move
slowly east today passing across the area on Wednesday. Weak
high pressure returns for Thursday through Friday. Another cold
front then approaches and passes through late Friday night into
Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the front Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Dissipating band of showers across far eastern LI will work east
through mid morning. For the rest of the morning, there will be a
low chance of showers until airmass destabilizes enough to
warrant the mention of thunderstorms this afternoon. However, did
keep LI and CT showers through the day based on marine air keeping
the region stable. In fact, any strong convection across the
interior is not likely until late this afternoon. There is
definitely a good deal of uncertainty as to whether this activity
will be able to reach the coast late today into this evening.

Otherwise, low stratus and patchy fog, locally dense will prevail
until around 15z.

A short wave trough will be moving SE toward the area along with
its` surface cold front reflection. With abundant low level
moisture in place and the cold front serving as the trigger, SCT
TSTMS are forecast to develop ahead of the cold front and move
toward the Lower Hudson Valley and Northern NJ aft 18z. The degree
of surface based instability is uncertain based on clouds
dissipating upstream.

In any case, there is a Slight Risk or severe TSTMs mainly for
Orange County and a Marginal Risk further east across NYC and SW
CT...mainly aft 20z with damaging winds being the primary threat.
Based on high sfc dew points and precipitable water contents, can
not rule out isolated flash flooding of low lying and poor
drainage areas.

An Outlook was issued for these potential hazards and impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The short wave trough is forecast to gradually move east with the
trough axis nearly overhead by 6 pm Wednesday.

Any potential severe TSTMs Tuesday evening should end by midnight
with showers ending by 10z Wednesday.

SCT instability TSTMs are possible aft 16z Wednesday with the
approach of the short wave trough axis.

Temperatures are forecast near normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As has been the case for the last several weeks, still no hot
weather on tap for the region with minor fluctuations around the
mean. The mean upper trough will continue to reside across eastern
Canada, the Great Lakes, and Northeast, while an amplified upper
ridge over the western U.S. gradually flattens into early next
week. At the same time, an upper low near Hudson Bay translates
east.

At the surface, weak high pressure over the Midwest builds into the
area Thursday and then offshore Thursday night ahead of an
approaching cold front and pre-frontal trough. The latter of which
is associated with the upper low/trough working across eastern
Canada. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday into
Friday night with the best chance being across the interior where
the greatest instability will exist. Deep-layer shear increases with
the approaching upper trough. Dry air could be a limiting factor for
any organization. Cold front works east of the area Saturday morning
with high pressure to follow through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front approaches later today and passes through the region
late tonight through Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds 5-10 KT will increase to 10-15 KT later today.

MVFR/IFR conditions in fog/stratus. An area of showers west of KNYC
will pass through sometime from 14Z-18Z. Will TEMPO showers for
KEWR/KTEB from 12Z-14Z. Showers possible for KLGA/KJFK from 13-15Z,
but will leave out of TAF for now.

Cold front approaches late in the day. SHRA/TSRA will develop north
and west of KNYC terminals and track east. Will carry TEMPO groups
for KNYC and interior terminals for TSRA. For eastern terminals,
will carry TEMPO groups for SHRA. Rain/stratus/fog moves into the
terminals after 03Z with IFR conditions.

Cold front passes through around daybreak Wednesday. Rain tapers
off. Conditions will improve through Wednesday morning.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

KLGA TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

KEWR TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

KHPN TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. IFR conditions
likely through most of the day.

KISP TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Wednesday morning...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals)
conditions possible via morning fog/low clouds and rain.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are forecast to generally remain below Small Craft
Advisory/SCA levels of 25 kt and 5 feet across the Atlantic Ocean
coastal waters through the period.

This Morning...Vsby of 1 to 3 nm possible in patchy fog with
scattered showers.

Late Afternoon through Tonight...Scattered TSTMs are possible with
the approach of a cold front along with Vsby of 1 to 3 NM in
patchy fog.

Cold frontal passages with wind shifts are forecast late
Wednesday and Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
This Morning: Up to 1/2-inch rainfall is possible across Long
Island and Southern CT.

This Afternoon through Tonight: 1/4 to 3/4-inches possible with
isolated higher amounts in heavier showers and SCT TSTMS. Can not
rule out isolated flash flooding of low lying poor drainage areas.

Friday Afternoon and Evening: Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may produce localized heavy rainfall, mainly north and west of
NYC.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/DW
NEAR TERM...GC/DW
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/DW
HYDROLOGY...GC/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 281152
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
752 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front over western Pennsylvania this morning will move
slowly east today passing across the area on Wednesday. Weak
high pressure returns for Thursday through Friday. Another cold
front then approaches and passes through late Friday night into
Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the front Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Dissipating band of showers across far eastern LI will work east
through mid morning. For the rest of the morning, there will be a
low chance of showers until airmass destabilizes enough to
warrant the mention of thunderstorms this afternoon. However, did
keep LI and CT showers through the day based on marine air keeping
the region stable. In fact, any strong convection across the
interior is not likely until late this afternoon. There is
definitely a good deal of uncertainty as to whether this activity
will be able to reach the coast late today into this evening.

Otherwise, low stratus and patchy fog, locally dense will prevail
until around 15z.

A short wave trough will be moving SE toward the area along with
its` surface cold front reflection. With abundant low level
moisture in place and the cold front serving as the trigger, SCT
TSTMS are forecast to develop ahead of the cold front and move
toward the Lower Hudson Valley and Northern NJ aft 18z. The degree
of surface based instability is uncertain based on clouds
dissipating upstream.

In any case, there is a Slight Risk or severe TSTMs mainly for
Orange County and a Marginal Risk further east across NYC and SW
CT...mainly aft 20z with damaging winds being the primary threat.
Based on high sfc dew points and precipitable water contents, can
not rule out isolated flash flooding of low lying and poor
drainage areas.

An Outlook was issued for these potential hazards and impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The short wave trough is forecast to gradually move east with the
trough axis nearly overhead by 6 pm Wednesday.

Any potential severe TSTMs Tuesday evening should end by midnight
with showers ending by 10z Wednesday.

SCT instability TSTMs are possible aft 16z Wednesday with the
approach of the short wave trough axis.

Temperatures are forecast near normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As has been the case for the last several weeks, still no hot
weather on tap for the region with minor fluctuations around the
mean. The mean upper trough will continue to reside across eastern
Canada, the Great Lakes, and Northeast, while an amplified upper
ridge over the western U.S. gradually flattens into early next
week. At the same time, an upper low near Hudson Bay translates
east.

At the surface, weak high pressure over the Midwest builds into the
area Thursday and then offshore Thursday night ahead of an
approaching cold front and pre-frontal trough. The latter of which
is associated with the upper low/trough working across eastern
Canada. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday into
Friday night with the best chance being across the interior where
the greatest instability will exist. Deep-layer shear increases with
the approaching upper trough. Dry air could be a limiting factor for
any organization. Cold front works east of the area Saturday morning
with high pressure to follow through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front approaches later today and passes through the region
late tonight through Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds 5-10 KT will increase to 10-15 KT later today.

MVFR/IFR conditions in fog/stratus. An area of showers west of KNYC
will pass through sometime from 14Z-18Z. Will TEMPO showers for
KEWR/KTEB from 12Z-14Z. Showers possible for KLGA/KJFK from 13-15Z,
but will leave out of TAF for now.

Cold front approaches late in the day. SHRA/TSRA will develop north
and west of KNYC terminals and track east. Will carry TEMPO groups
for KNYC and interior terminals for TSRA. For eastern terminals,
will carry TEMPO groups for SHRA. Rain/stratus/fog moves into the
terminals after 03Z with IFR conditions.

Cold front passes through around daybreak Wednesday. Rain tapers
off. Conditions will improve through Wednesday morning.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

KLGA TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

KEWR TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

KHPN TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. IFR conditions
likely through most of the day.

KISP TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Wednesday morning...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals)
conditions possible via morning fog/low clouds and rain.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are forecast to generally remain below Small Craft
Advisory/SCA levels of 25 kt and 5 feet across the Atlantic Ocean
coastal waters through the period.

This Morning...Vsby of 1 to 3 nm possible in patchy fog with
scattered showers.

Late Afternoon through Tonight...Scattered TSTMs are possible with
the approach of a cold front along with Vsby of 1 to 3 NM in
patchy fog.

Cold frontal passages with wind shifts are forecast late
Wednesday and Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
This Morning: Up to 1/2-inch rainfall is possible across Long
Island and Southern CT.

This Afternoon through Tonight: 1/4 to 3/4-inches possible with
isolated higher amounts in heavier showers and SCT TSTMS. Can not
rule out isolated flash flooding of low lying poor drainage areas.

Friday Afternoon and Evening: Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may produce localized heavy rainfall, mainly north and west of
NYC.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/DW
NEAR TERM...GC/DW
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/DW
HYDROLOGY...GC/DW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281107
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
707 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will move into the North Country today
into tonight, triggering heavy showers and strong thunderstorms. The
strongest storms will develop from the eastern slopes of the
Adirondacks eastward across Vermont, with some potentially
producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail. Scattered
showers linger into Wednesday as an upper trough swings through,
but the end of the work week will see a return of warm and dry
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 706 AM EDT Tuesday...No changes to the forecast except to
account for current observations. Radar shows some light showers
already being observed across southern St. Lawrence County with
some stubborn lower stratus across southeast VT. In between is
mostly sunny skies, though these will gradually begin to fill in
as cumulus begin to develop. Cold front as of 630 AM essentially
still resides along the St. Lawrence River south to just east of
Rochester NY and will slowly advance east. Latest HRRR and 06z
runs of the BTV-4 and BTV-6 WRFs all continue to point to an
active afternoon and evening, so I`ve made no changes to PoPs or
Wx. Temps should keep climbing several degrees from relatively
mild early-morning lows, but will eventually be curbed by greater
cloud cover and developing showers/thunderstorms. Highs upper 70s
to lower/mid 80s appear on track.

Previous discussion from 355 AM follows...

Active Tuesday is in store for a large part of the North Country,
particularly focusing on an area from the Northern Adirondacks
eastward, as a slow-moving cold front will spark scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms by early this afternoon into
evening hrs. Storms will become strong to occasionally severe and
be capable of strong to at times damaging winds, small mainly sub-
severe hail, and locally heavy rainfall capable of triggering
isolated areas of flash flooding. See the Hydrology section below
for more details on the localized heavy rainfall concern.

Cold front at 06z was positioned essentially along the St.
Lawrence River southeastward to just west of Syracuse. We remain
in deep southwest flow aloft trailing back to a shortwave trough
and associated 500 mb 45-50 kt jetstreak across the southern Great
Lakes. A mild and relatively moist air mass lies ahead of the
boundary across the North Country with temperatures in the 60s to
low 70s and dewpoints generally in the lower to mid 60s. Given
these conditions, there is hardly any convective inhibition noted
on SPC`s mesoanalysis. As such, I think we`ll be off and running,
so to speak, once we get some stronger sunshine and we start to
generate some surface convergence along the front with the
southerly winds. Nearly all CAMs (convection-allowing models) show
developing showers/storms between 15-17z on the Adirondacks,
advancing into the Champlain Valley by 18-20z, and Central and
Southern VT between 19-22z. Instability is plenty sufficient for
strong to severe storms with MUCAPEs of 1500-2000 J/kg, though is
limited by poor lapse rates aloft and of a "tall, skinny CAPE"
flavor. 0-6 km shear should support organized updrafts as well
with values around 35-40 kts. Given the deep shear vectors,
multicells should be the predominant mode and primarily capable of
gusty to damaging winds. Small hail would be a secondary concern
but I can`t discount the possibility of 1" hailstones in the
strongest cells. As storms should move over the same areas,
localized heavy rainfall capable of isolated flash flooding can`t
be discounted either even given the dry conditions. Since I`ve
maintained the enhanced wording for gusty winds, small hail and
heavy rain but went with areal coverage wording (sct to numerous
showers/storms). By evening, ongoing strong/severe storms should
be focused along or just east of the Champlain Valley. Waning
instability should result in a general weakening of thunderstorms.
I`ve kept the enhanced wording for gusty winds and hail through
03z, but we should see more of a focus on heavy rain into the
evening hours.

Highs should only top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s given the
timing of storms today, with lows ranging from the upper 50s to
lower/mid 60s highest for VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 454 AM EDT Tuesday...An upper trough will move across the
region on Wednesday with a chance of showers. Models showing some
destabilization as well, so will mention a slight chance for
thunderstorms on Wednesday. SPC has Vermont in a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. However...GFS 0-6 km bulk shear
showing strongest winds shifting east of the region on Wednesday,
so not buying into SPC marginal risk at this time. Feel western
Maine and New Hampshire will have a better chance for any severe
weather on Wednesday. The upper trough will swing east of teh
region Wednesday night, with fair and dry weather expected over
the north country Wednesday night through Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 454 AM EDT Tuesday...Friday will start out dry across the
region. GFS model hinting at a chance of showers and thunderstorms
Friday afternoon into Friday night. ECMWF model keeps Friday dry
and holds off on bringing in any showers until Friday night. Thus,
forecaster confidence in Friday afternoon forecast is low at this
time. An upper trough will be over the region on Saturday, so will
keep in a chance of showers in the forecast. Models now hinting at
a dry forecast from saturday night through the 4th of July.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Lingering MVFR stratus at RUT will burn
off to VFR within the next couple hrs. Stage will then be set for
developing heavy showers and thunderstorms along a cold front,
starting around 16z Tuesday at SLK and then advancing eastward
into PBG/VT terminals after 18z. Some storms may become strong to
severe during this timeframe, producing gusty winds and associated
turbulence, lightning and brief cig/visby reductions into the
MVFR/IFR category. Tried to indicate where the best window would
be for stronger storms with a 3SM +SHRA following with a 6SM
-SHRA. See specific TAFs for timing, with later amendments likely
to address more imminent risk. General weakening trend from 03z
through 12z. Winds south 6-8 kts then becoming west to northwest
3-6 kts late in the TAF period.

Outlook 12z Wednesday through Saturday...

12z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Generally VFR, possible brief
MVFR in diurnal showers.

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with IFR/LIFR radiational
fog at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

Saturday onward...VFR/MVFR with chances for scattered showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday... Risk of heavy rainfall remains in
place for today with strong to severe thunderstorms mainly from
the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks eastward to VT this
afternoon and evening. Low-level wind fields parallel to the cold
front should lead to training of convective cells, and if
persistent enough may trigger areas of isolated flash flooding.
PWAT values are not excessively high but are around 1.4-1.6".
Flash flood guidance (FFG) is also fairly high given the relative
dryness of late. 1 hour FFG is roughly 1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is
2.3-3.0". It might be hard to see that amount of rain in just 1
hour, but if we`ve got a slow moving line with repeated cells
moving across an area for 3 hours, that 3 hour FFG is not too hard
to achieve. After collaboration with surrounding WFOs, opted to
not issue a flash flood watch but will raise awareness of the
heavy rainfall and isolated flash flood concerns with a Special
Weather Statement this morning. Any flash flooding would be
localized to small basins or small urban and mountainous
locations. Larger main-stem river flooding is not expected.
Forecast QPF values through tonight range from 1 to 1.5", but
could be higher in more localized and persistent cell training.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...Boaters should remain aware of the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms nearing Lake
Champlain early this afternoon. Storms will be capable of frequent
lightning, heavy rainfall and gusty winds capable of creating
choppy waves. Boaters should be prepared to seek safe harbor if
threatening weather approaches. A Lake Thunderstorm Advisory may
become necessary today as the situation warrants.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Loconto
MARINE...Loconto




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281107
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
707 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will move into the North Country today
into tonight, triggering heavy showers and strong thunderstorms. The
strongest storms will develop from the eastern slopes of the
Adirondacks eastward across Vermont, with some potentially
producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail. Scattered
showers linger into Wednesday as an upper trough swings through,
but the end of the work week will see a return of warm and dry
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 706 AM EDT Tuesday...No changes to the forecast except to
account for current observations. Radar shows some light showers
already being observed across southern St. Lawrence County with
some stubborn lower stratus across southeast VT. In between is
mostly sunny skies, though these will gradually begin to fill in
as cumulus begin to develop. Cold front as of 630 AM essentially
still resides along the St. Lawrence River south to just east of
Rochester NY and will slowly advance east. Latest HRRR and 06z
runs of the BTV-4 and BTV-6 WRFs all continue to point to an
active afternoon and evening, so I`ve made no changes to PoPs or
Wx. Temps should keep climbing several degrees from relatively
mild early-morning lows, but will eventually be curbed by greater
cloud cover and developing showers/thunderstorms. Highs upper 70s
to lower/mid 80s appear on track.

Previous discussion from 355 AM follows...

Active Tuesday is in store for a large part of the North Country,
particularly focusing on an area from the Northern Adirondacks
eastward, as a slow-moving cold front will spark scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms by early this afternoon into
evening hrs. Storms will become strong to occasionally severe and
be capable of strong to at times damaging winds, small mainly sub-
severe hail, and locally heavy rainfall capable of triggering
isolated areas of flash flooding. See the Hydrology section below
for more details on the localized heavy rainfall concern.

Cold front at 06z was positioned essentially along the St.
Lawrence River southeastward to just west of Syracuse. We remain
in deep southwest flow aloft trailing back to a shortwave trough
and associated 500 mb 45-50 kt jetstreak across the southern Great
Lakes. A mild and relatively moist air mass lies ahead of the
boundary across the North Country with temperatures in the 60s to
low 70s and dewpoints generally in the lower to mid 60s. Given
these conditions, there is hardly any convective inhibition noted
on SPC`s mesoanalysis. As such, I think we`ll be off and running,
so to speak, once we get some stronger sunshine and we start to
generate some surface convergence along the front with the
southerly winds. Nearly all CAMs (convection-allowing models) show
developing showers/storms between 15-17z on the Adirondacks,
advancing into the Champlain Valley by 18-20z, and Central and
Southern VT between 19-22z. Instability is plenty sufficient for
strong to severe storms with MUCAPEs of 1500-2000 J/kg, though is
limited by poor lapse rates aloft and of a "tall, skinny CAPE"
flavor. 0-6 km shear should support organized updrafts as well
with values around 35-40 kts. Given the deep shear vectors,
multicells should be the predominant mode and primarily capable of
gusty to damaging winds. Small hail would be a secondary concern
but I can`t discount the possibility of 1" hailstones in the
strongest cells. As storms should move over the same areas,
localized heavy rainfall capable of isolated flash flooding can`t
be discounted either even given the dry conditions. Since I`ve
maintained the enhanced wording for gusty winds, small hail and
heavy rain but went with areal coverage wording (sct to numerous
showers/storms). By evening, ongoing strong/severe storms should
be focused along or just east of the Champlain Valley. Waning
instability should result in a general weakening of thunderstorms.
I`ve kept the enhanced wording for gusty winds and hail through
03z, but we should see more of a focus on heavy rain into the
evening hours.

Highs should only top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s given the
timing of storms today, with lows ranging from the upper 50s to
lower/mid 60s highest for VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 454 AM EDT Tuesday...An upper trough will move across the
region on Wednesday with a chance of showers. Models showing some
destabilization as well, so will mention a slight chance for
thunderstorms on Wednesday. SPC has Vermont in a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. However...GFS 0-6 km bulk shear
showing strongest winds shifting east of the region on Wednesday,
so not buying into SPC marginal risk at this time. Feel western
Maine and New Hampshire will have a better chance for any severe
weather on Wednesday. The upper trough will swing east of teh
region Wednesday night, with fair and dry weather expected over
the north country Wednesday night through Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 454 AM EDT Tuesday...Friday will start out dry across the
region. GFS model hinting at a chance of showers and thunderstorms
Friday afternoon into Friday night. ECMWF model keeps Friday dry
and holds off on bringing in any showers until Friday night. Thus,
forecaster confidence in Friday afternoon forecast is low at this
time. An upper trough will be over the region on Saturday, so will
keep in a chance of showers in the forecast. Models now hinting at
a dry forecast from saturday night through the 4th of July.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Lingering MVFR stratus at RUT will burn
off to VFR within the next couple hrs. Stage will then be set for
developing heavy showers and thunderstorms along a cold front,
starting around 16z Tuesday at SLK and then advancing eastward
into PBG/VT terminals after 18z. Some storms may become strong to
severe during this timeframe, producing gusty winds and associated
turbulence, lightning and brief cig/visby reductions into the
MVFR/IFR category. Tried to indicate where the best window would
be for stronger storms with a 3SM +SHRA following with a 6SM
-SHRA. See specific TAFs for timing, with later amendments likely
to address more imminent risk. General weakening trend from 03z
through 12z. Winds south 6-8 kts then becoming west to northwest
3-6 kts late in the TAF period.

Outlook 12z Wednesday through Saturday...

12z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Generally VFR, possible brief
MVFR in diurnal showers.

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with IFR/LIFR radiational
fog at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

Saturday onward...VFR/MVFR with chances for scattered showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday... Risk of heavy rainfall remains in
place for today with strong to severe thunderstorms mainly from
the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks eastward to VT this
afternoon and evening. Low-level wind fields parallel to the cold
front should lead to training of convective cells, and if
persistent enough may trigger areas of isolated flash flooding.
PWAT values are not excessively high but are around 1.4-1.6".
Flash flood guidance (FFG) is also fairly high given the relative
dryness of late. 1 hour FFG is roughly 1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is
2.3-3.0". It might be hard to see that amount of rain in just 1
hour, but if we`ve got a slow moving line with repeated cells
moving across an area for 3 hours, that 3 hour FFG is not too hard
to achieve. After collaboration with surrounding WFOs, opted to
not issue a flash flood watch but will raise awareness of the
heavy rainfall and isolated flash flood concerns with a Special
Weather Statement this morning. Any flash flooding would be
localized to small basins or small urban and mountainous
locations. Larger main-stem river flooding is not expected.
Forecast QPF values through tonight range from 1 to 1.5", but
could be higher in more localized and persistent cell training.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...Boaters should remain aware of the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms nearing Lake
Champlain early this afternoon. Storms will be capable of frequent
lightning, heavy rainfall and gusty winds capable of creating
choppy waves. Boaters should be prepared to seek safe harbor if
threatening weather approaches. A Lake Thunderstorm Advisory may
become necessary today as the situation warrants.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Loconto
MARINE...Loconto




000
FXUS61 KBGM 281049
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
649 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region
primarily this afternoon. Some of the thunderstorms could produce
damaging winds mainly in the western Catskills, Poconos and
Wyoming valley in northeast Pennsylvania. Mainly dry and cooler
weather will follow the front through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Early this morning a surface cold front was moving through
western New York as the associated upper level trof and jet
dynamics was well to the west over the central lakes. As this
front approaches the western forecast area primarily scattered
showers will develop by mid morning. Models continue to show the
convection along this boundary will intensify early this afternoon
as the atmosphere destabilizes and the upper level wave and
associated jet dynamics synch up with the surface feature. By this
time the airmass from I81 east is forecast to have ML CAPE values
of 1500-2000 J/KG (NAM) with the GFS around 800 J/KG. An average
value around 1200 J/KG seems reasonable along with deep shear
values around 40 knots. These values indicate the potential for
severe weather today and SPC continues to have the area primarily
from I81 east in a slight risk. The limiting factor continues to
be weak mid level lapse rates which may result in tall/skinny CAPE
if dewpoints don`t reach the upper 60s to around 70. The primary
threat continues to be damaging winds although very heavy downpours
are also possible as PWATs are near 1.50 inches. Recent dry
stretch has resulted in dry antecedent conditions which should
limit any hydro concerns. The best chances for severe weather will
reside in the western Catskills, Poconos and Wyoming valley in
northeast Pennsylvania. This activity may linger into the early
evening hours in the far southeast then end.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On wednesday a weak secondary surface trof may trigger some light
showers so will continue with slight chc pops for much of the
area. Wednesday night through Thursday night the region will
remain dry with surface high pressure moving from the Ohio valley
east across the vicinity to the eastern seaboard by Thursday
night. It will be cool during the overnight periods with lows in
the upper 40s to middle 50s and highs in the 70s on Wednesday
rising to around 80 on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
215 pm update... A progressive, fairly dry pattern overall, is
likely to continue this period.

An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front are
progged to impact the region Friday into Friday night. As such, we
have chance probabilities (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms.

Thereafter, it appears that we could have another extended stretch
of rain-free weather, with slowly building heights aloft, and
incoming surface high pressure.

Temperatures look fairly seasonable, with highs Friday mostly in
the 80s, dropping back a bit to the upper 70s-lower 80s for the
rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low clouds with MVFR cigs at KAVP, dense fog and low cigs at KELM
and KBGM will rapidly improve between now and 14Z with a return to
VFR weather. A line of thunderstorms will impact especially KAVP
this afternoon with gusty winds and IFR vsbys possible between 19Z
and 23Z. At KELM/KITH/KBGM/KRME the line may initially develop
near or just southeast of these terminals (17Z-21Z). While gusty
winds and brief IFR vsbys are possible here, the likelihood and
duration will be shorter thus a more narrow tempo group was used
or leaving out a mention of thunderstorms all together.


VFR tonight except valley fog with IFR vsbys possible at KELM.

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR except valley fog at KELM.

Friday...Although VFR expected much of the time, brief
restrictions with showers/thunderstorms are possible.

Sat...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...BJT/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...Heden




000
FXUS61 KBGM 281049
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
649 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region
primarily this afternoon. Some of the thunderstorms could produce
damaging winds mainly in the western Catskills, Poconos and
Wyoming valley in northeast Pennsylvania. Mainly dry and cooler
weather will follow the front through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Early this morning a surface cold front was moving through
western New York as the associated upper level trof and jet
dynamics was well to the west over the central lakes. As this
front approaches the western forecast area primarily scattered
showers will develop by mid morning. Models continue to show the
convection along this boundary will intensify early this afternoon
as the atmosphere destabilizes and the upper level wave and
associated jet dynamics synch up with the surface feature. By this
time the airmass from I81 east is forecast to have ML CAPE values
of 1500-2000 J/KG (NAM) with the GFS around 800 J/KG. An average
value around 1200 J/KG seems reasonable along with deep shear
values around 40 knots. These values indicate the potential for
severe weather today and SPC continues to have the area primarily
from I81 east in a slight risk. The limiting factor continues to
be weak mid level lapse rates which may result in tall/skinny CAPE
if dewpoints don`t reach the upper 60s to around 70. The primary
threat continues to be damaging winds although very heavy downpours
are also possible as PWATs are near 1.50 inches. Recent dry
stretch has resulted in dry antecedent conditions which should
limit any hydro concerns. The best chances for severe weather will
reside in the western Catskills, Poconos and Wyoming valley in
northeast Pennsylvania. This activity may linger into the early
evening hours in the far southeast then end.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On wednesday a weak secondary surface trof may trigger some light
showers so will continue with slight chc pops for much of the
area. Wednesday night through Thursday night the region will
remain dry with surface high pressure moving from the Ohio valley
east across the vicinity to the eastern seaboard by Thursday
night. It will be cool during the overnight periods with lows in
the upper 40s to middle 50s and highs in the 70s on Wednesday
rising to around 80 on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
215 pm update... A progressive, fairly dry pattern overall, is
likely to continue this period.

An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front are
progged to impact the region Friday into Friday night. As such, we
have chance probabilities (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms.

Thereafter, it appears that we could have another extended stretch
of rain-free weather, with slowly building heights aloft, and
incoming surface high pressure.

Temperatures look fairly seasonable, with highs Friday mostly in
the 80s, dropping back a bit to the upper 70s-lower 80s for the
rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low clouds with MVFR cigs at KAVP, dense fog and low cigs at KELM
and KBGM will rapidly improve between now and 14Z with a return to
VFR weather. A line of thunderstorms will impact especially KAVP
this afternoon with gusty winds and IFR vsbys possible between 19Z
and 23Z. At KELM/KITH/KBGM/KRME the line may initially develop
near or just southeast of these terminals (17Z-21Z). While gusty
winds and brief IFR vsbys are possible here, the likelihood and
duration will be shorter thus a more narrow tempo group was used
or leaving out a mention of thunderstorms all together.


VFR tonight except valley fog with IFR vsbys possible at KELM.

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR except valley fog at KELM.

Friday...Although VFR expected much of the time, brief
restrictions with showers/thunderstorms are possible.

Sat...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...BJT/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...Heden




000
FXUS61 KBUF 281047
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
647 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool front that moved across the western counties overnight has
ushered in a notably cooler and less humid airmass. The more
comfortable conditions will last through Wednesday night before
warmer weather returns. Otherwise...while parts of the region could
experience a shower of thunderstorm today...high pressure moving
across the Great Lakes will promote fair dry weather until late in
the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
It will be cooler and less humid across the bulk of the forecast
area today...as more comfortable air will continue to work across
the Lower Great Lakes in the wake of a weak cool front. This front
pushed across the western counties overnight...but as it becomes
parallel to the mid level flow today...it will will temporarily
stall over the eastern portion of the state. This will become a
focus for some showers and thunderstorms...some of which could
include gusty winds and heavy rain east of Interstate 81 where a
plume of deeper moisture will also be in place.

While there will be an increasing risk for showers and thunderstorms
east of the Genesee Valley today...the bulk of our forecast area
will only experience some increasing clouds associated with an
approaching shortwave. This feature will have to be closely watched
later today though...as it could help to generate some widely
separated showers over the region late this afternoon into the
evening hours.

Later tonight...subsidence in the wake of the shortwave will
encourage the return of more widespread fair weather...although
clouds may linger into the morning hours.

Temperatures today will be some 10 degrees F lower over the
western counties than they were on Monday...as highs will be in
the mid to upper 70s. The twenty four hour difference will not be
as noticeable east of Lake Ontario though...as a complete airmass
change is not expected until the aforementioned shortwave pushes
the stalled front across New England tonight. It will then be cool
tonight with the mercury generally settling into the 50s. Some 40s
will be possible in the cooler Srn Tier valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On Wednesday the mid level trough will move from central NY at 12Z
to western New England by late afternoon. The proximity of the
trough and associated cyclonic flow combined with lingering moisture
will produce a few more scattered showers east of Lake Ontario, with
an isolated shower or two possible as far west as the Finger Lakes
and Genesee Valley. Expect a mix of clouds and sun in most areas
with the lingering moisture and cool air aloft promoting plenty of
cumulus and stratocumulus. Sunshine should increase later in the
afternoon across western NY as the deeper moisture begins to pull
away. Expect highs in the mid 70s across lower elevations and
around 70 on the hills.

The mid level trough will exit into northern New England Wednesday
night and take the deeper moisture and cyclonic flow with it. Any
isolated showers east of Lake Ontario will end during the evening
with skies clearing from west to east overnight as dry air and
subsidence build into the lower Great Lakes. The clearing skies,
light winds, and cool/dry airmass will allow for good radiational
cooling. Expect lows in the lower to mid 50s on the lake plains with
mid 40s in some of the cooler Southern Tier valleys.

High pressure builds into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes
Thursday with associated subsidence and dry air supporting plenty of
sunshine. The airmass will quickly moderate with highs back into the
lower 80s across lower elevations. High pressure will drift slowly
towards the east coast Thursday night with the mainly clear skies
continuing.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mid level trough will move east across Ontario and Quebec Friday
and Friday night, with a trailing cold front moving east across the
Great Lakes. The majority of the more organized large scale ascent
will remain north of the Canadian border with limited convergence
and moisture along the trailing surface cold front which will move
across our area. Local lake breeze boundaries will likely end up
producing better convergence than the cold front itself, with
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
Friday afternoon and evening. Coverage of any rainfall will remain
very sparse with little help to alleviate the dry soil conditions in
most areas.

High pressure builds back into the Great Lakes by Saturday and will
remain in place Sunday before drifting to the east coast Monday.
This will provide a dry and sunny holiday weekend with temperatures
in the mid 70s Saturday, warming back into the 80s by Monday for
Independence Day.

Looking a little farther ahead, the pattern may become a little more
active across the Great Lakes during the second half of next week as
zonal flow remains just north of the Canadian border and the ridge
builds northward into the midwest and Ohio Valley. This may place
our region closer to the travel corridor for one or more
thunderstorm complexes, but given the time range this is still
a low confidence forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditons will be in place across all of western and north
central New York today...although a weak cool front moving through
the region will become a focus for midday and afternoon convection.

Showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly more common from
the Finger Lakes eastward later today...with the most widespread
activity forecast to be east of KART and KSYR where thunderstorms
could become strong to severe.

For tonight...while there could be a few showers around during the
evening hours...VFR conditions should persist.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR with no operational impact.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A cool front passed over the Lower Great Lakes overnight. Winds in
the wake of this front have veered to the west-northwest...but they
are not forecast to freshen to the point of requiring a small craft
advisory. Nevertheless...this flow will create choppy
conditions today east of Braddock Bay.

Surface High pressure will then build across the Lower Great Lakes
later tonight and Wednesday...and will remain over the region
through Thursday with generally light winds and negligible waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 281047
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
647 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool front that moved across the western counties overnight has
ushered in a notably cooler and less humid airmass. The more
comfortable conditions will last through Wednesday night before
warmer weather returns. Otherwise...while parts of the region could
experience a shower of thunderstorm today...high pressure moving
across the Great Lakes will promote fair dry weather until late in
the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
It will be cooler and less humid across the bulk of the forecast
area today...as more comfortable air will continue to work across
the Lower Great Lakes in the wake of a weak cool front. This front
pushed across the western counties overnight...but as it becomes
parallel to the mid level flow today...it will will temporarily
stall over the eastern portion of the state. This will become a
focus for some showers and thunderstorms...some of which could
include gusty winds and heavy rain east of Interstate 81 where a
plume of deeper moisture will also be in place.

While there will be an increasing risk for showers and thunderstorms
east of the Genesee Valley today...the bulk of our forecast area
will only experience some increasing clouds associated with an
approaching shortwave. This feature will have to be closely watched
later today though...as it could help to generate some widely
separated showers over the region late this afternoon into the
evening hours.

Later tonight...subsidence in the wake of the shortwave will
encourage the return of more widespread fair weather...although
clouds may linger into the morning hours.

Temperatures today will be some 10 degrees F lower over the
western counties than they were on Monday...as highs will be in
the mid to upper 70s. The twenty four hour difference will not be
as noticeable east of Lake Ontario though...as a complete airmass
change is not expected until the aforementioned shortwave pushes
the stalled front across New England tonight. It will then be cool
tonight with the mercury generally settling into the 50s. Some 40s
will be possible in the cooler Srn Tier valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On Wednesday the mid level trough will move from central NY at 12Z
to western New England by late afternoon. The proximity of the
trough and associated cyclonic flow combined with lingering moisture
will produce a few more scattered showers east of Lake Ontario, with
an isolated shower or two possible as far west as the Finger Lakes
and Genesee Valley. Expect a mix of clouds and sun in most areas
with the lingering moisture and cool air aloft promoting plenty of
cumulus and stratocumulus. Sunshine should increase later in the
afternoon across western NY as the deeper moisture begins to pull
away. Expect highs in the mid 70s across lower elevations and
around 70 on the hills.

The mid level trough will exit into northern New England Wednesday
night and take the deeper moisture and cyclonic flow with it. Any
isolated showers east of Lake Ontario will end during the evening
with skies clearing from west to east overnight as dry air and
subsidence build into the lower Great Lakes. The clearing skies,
light winds, and cool/dry airmass will allow for good radiational
cooling. Expect lows in the lower to mid 50s on the lake plains with
mid 40s in some of the cooler Southern Tier valleys.

High pressure builds into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes
Thursday with associated subsidence and dry air supporting plenty of
sunshine. The airmass will quickly moderate with highs back into the
lower 80s across lower elevations. High pressure will drift slowly
towards the east coast Thursday night with the mainly clear skies
continuing.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mid level trough will move east across Ontario and Quebec Friday
and Friday night, with a trailing cold front moving east across the
Great Lakes. The majority of the more organized large scale ascent
will remain north of the Canadian border with limited convergence
and moisture along the trailing surface cold front which will move
across our area. Local lake breeze boundaries will likely end up
producing better convergence than the cold front itself, with
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
Friday afternoon and evening. Coverage of any rainfall will remain
very sparse with little help to alleviate the dry soil conditions in
most areas.

High pressure builds back into the Great Lakes by Saturday and will
remain in place Sunday before drifting to the east coast Monday.
This will provide a dry and sunny holiday weekend with temperatures
in the mid 70s Saturday, warming back into the 80s by Monday for
Independence Day.

Looking a little farther ahead, the pattern may become a little more
active across the Great Lakes during the second half of next week as
zonal flow remains just north of the Canadian border and the ridge
builds northward into the midwest and Ohio Valley. This may place
our region closer to the travel corridor for one or more
thunderstorm complexes, but given the time range this is still
a low confidence forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditons will be in place across all of western and north
central New York today...although a weak cool front moving through
the region will become a focus for midday and afternoon convection.

Showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly more common from
the Finger Lakes eastward later today...with the most widespread
activity forecast to be east of KART and KSYR where thunderstorms
could become strong to severe.

For tonight...while there could be a few showers around during the
evening hours...VFR conditions should persist.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR with no operational impact.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A cool front passed over the Lower Great Lakes overnight. Winds in
the wake of this front have veered to the west-northwest...but they
are not forecast to freshen to the point of requiring a small craft
advisory. Nevertheless...this flow will create choppy
conditions today east of Braddock Bay.

Surface High pressure will then build across the Lower Great Lakes
later tonight and Wednesday...and will remain over the region
through Thursday with generally light winds and negligible waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KALY 281047
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
647 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 611 AM EDT...Severe thunderstorms possible across much of
the region this afternoon into this evening...

A moist and increasingly unstable air mass will be in place
today. Already early this morning temperatures are quite mild in
the 60s, with dewpoints also in the 60s making it humid. Lots of
low stratus clouds around, but most of the area will see breaks
of sunshine by late morning into early afternoon, which will allow
for moderate instability to develop. The only area where the
stratus clouds and more stable conditions could hold on longer is
across eastern Dutchess, southern Berkshire, and Litchfield
counties where there is a Marginal Risk of severe storms, compared
to the greater Slight Risk farther west across the rest of the
area.

Large-scale ascent will result from low level convergence along a
slow moving cold front that will track eastward across the region
this afternoon and evening, combined with cyclonic vorticity
advection ahead of an upper level trough pushing eastward through
the eastern Great Lakes. This pattern will result in widespread
development of showers and storms, with hi-res models indicating
convective initiation across the western Adirondacks and Mohawk
Valley by early this afternoon. Storms will intensify and move
eastward into the Catskills and Hudson valley by mid to late
afternoon.

Thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind the primary
threat. SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg will provide enough
buoyancy to maintain persistent multicells given increasing deep
layer shear of 30-40 kt. Mitigating factor to large hail will be
relatively weak mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and `thin`
CAPE profile aloft. However, forecast sounding profiles also
showing potential for heavy rainfall within storms, which could
result in isolated flash flooding. See hydro section for details.

Showers and storms will move into western New England during the
evening, and should tend to weaken but still may produce gusty
winds and downpours.

High temps expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in most
locations, but will drop into the 60s during any persistent
showers or storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances for convection as we head into the long holiday weekend
then fair weather is expected.

A vigorous short-wave is expected to be rotating about the base
of an upper level low near southern Hudson Bay Canada Thursday
night through Friday night. This feature will be accompanied by a
cold front at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop and move across the region in response. Have limited
pops to chance for Friday and Friday night at this time due to
timing concerns.

The upper low is modeled to move slowly eastward across eastern
Canada over the holiday weekend eventually filling in and opening
up. Our region will remain on the southern periphery of the low
through Sunday with heights rising Sunday night and Monday as
ridging builds in.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm Friday with cooler
readings by 5 to 10 degrees in the wake of the cold front for Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures are anticipated to moderate back to normal
levels for Monday Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected to improve to VFR this morning.
Convection will develop across the area impacting the TAFs sites
this afternoon and evening as cold front approaches and gradually
crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection will initiate by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours and the
evening hours. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and this
will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew points in
the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The primary threat
will be strong to damaging winds gusts along with locally heavy
rainfall.

Widespread MVFR conditions are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection with IFR conditions expected at
KPOU and KPSF.

Southerly winds today with gusts into the teens at KALB during
the afternoon. Winds will become light tonight.

Outlook...

Wed Night-Thu Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Fri-Fri Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sat: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281047
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
647 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 611 AM EDT...Severe thunderstorms possible across much of
the region this afternoon into this evening...

A moist and increasingly unstable air mass will be in place
today. Already early this morning temperatures are quite mild in
the 60s, with dewpoints also in the 60s making it humid. Lots of
low stratus clouds around, but most of the area will see breaks
of sunshine by late morning into early afternoon, which will allow
for moderate instability to develop. The only area where the
stratus clouds and more stable conditions could hold on longer is
across eastern Dutchess, southern Berkshire, and Litchfield
counties where there is a Marginal Risk of severe storms, compared
to the greater Slight Risk farther west across the rest of the
area.

Large-scale ascent will result from low level convergence along a
slow moving cold front that will track eastward across the region
this afternoon and evening, combined with cyclonic vorticity
advection ahead of an upper level trough pushing eastward through
the eastern Great Lakes. This pattern will result in widespread
development of showers and storms, with hi-res models indicating
convective initiation across the western Adirondacks and Mohawk
Valley by early this afternoon. Storms will intensify and move
eastward into the Catskills and Hudson valley by mid to late
afternoon.

Thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind the primary
threat. SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg will provide enough
buoyancy to maintain persistent multicells given increasing deep
layer shear of 30-40 kt. Mitigating factor to large hail will be
relatively weak mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and `thin`
CAPE profile aloft. However, forecast sounding profiles also
showing potential for heavy rainfall within storms, which could
result in isolated flash flooding. See hydro section for details.

Showers and storms will move into western New England during the
evening, and should tend to weaken but still may produce gusty
winds and downpours.

High temps expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in most
locations, but will drop into the 60s during any persistent
showers or storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances for convection as we head into the long holiday weekend
then fair weather is expected.

A vigorous short-wave is expected to be rotating about the base
of an upper level low near southern Hudson Bay Canada Thursday
night through Friday night. This feature will be accompanied by a
cold front at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop and move across the region in response. Have limited
pops to chance for Friday and Friday night at this time due to
timing concerns.

The upper low is modeled to move slowly eastward across eastern
Canada over the holiday weekend eventually filling in and opening
up. Our region will remain on the southern periphery of the low
through Sunday with heights rising Sunday night and Monday as
ridging builds in.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm Friday with cooler
readings by 5 to 10 degrees in the wake of the cold front for Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures are anticipated to moderate back to normal
levels for Monday Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected to improve to VFR this morning.
Convection will develop across the area impacting the TAFs sites
this afternoon and evening as cold front approaches and gradually
crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection will initiate by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours and the
evening hours. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and this
will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew points in
the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The primary threat
will be strong to damaging winds gusts along with locally heavy
rainfall.

Widespread MVFR conditions are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection with IFR conditions expected at
KPOU and KPSF.

Southerly winds today with gusts into the teens at KALB during
the afternoon. Winds will become light tonight.

Outlook...

Wed Night-Thu Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Fri-Fri Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sat: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281011
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
611 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 611 AM EDT...Severe thunderstorms possible across much of
the region this afternoon into this evening...

A moist and increasingly unstable air mass will be in place
today. Already early this morning temperatures are quite mild in
the 60s, with dewpoints also in the 60s making it humid. Lots of
low stratus clouds around, but most of the area will see breaks
of sunshine by late morning into early afternoon, which will allow
for moderate instability to develop. The only area where the
stratus clouds and more stable conditions could hold on longer is
across eastern Dutchess, southern Berkshire, and Litchfield
counties where there is a Marginal Risk of severe storms, compared
to the greater Slight Risk farther west across the rest of the
area.

Large-scale ascent will result from low level convergence along a
slow moving cold front that will track eastward across the region
this afternoon and evening, combined with cyclonic vorticity
advection ahead of an upper level trough pushing eastward through
the eastern Great Lakes. This pattern will result in widespread
development of showers and storms, with hi-res models indicating
convective initiation across the western Adirondacks and Mohawk
Valley by early this afternoon. Storms will intensify and move
eastward into the Catskills and Hudson valley by mid to late
afternoon.

Thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind the primary
threat. SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg will provide enough
buoyancy to maintain persistent multicells given increasing deep
layer shear of 30-40 kt. Mitigating factor to large hail will be
relatively weak mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and `thin`
CAPE profile aloft. However, forecast sounding profiles also
showing potential for heavy rainfall within storms, which could
result in isolated flash flooding. See hydro section for details.

Showers and storms will move into western New England during the
evening, and should tend to weaken but still may produce gusty
winds and downpours.

High temps expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in most
locations, but will drop into the 60s during any persistent
showers or storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances for convection as we head into the long holiday weekend
then fair weather is expected.

A vigorous short-wave is expected to be rotating about the base
of an upper level low near southern Hudson Bay Canada Thursday
night through Friday night. This feature will be accompanied by a
cold front at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop and move across the region in response. Have limited
pops to chance for Friday and Friday night at this time due to
timing concerns.

The upper low is modeled to move slowly eastward across eastern
Canada over the holiday weekend eventually filling in and opening
up. Our region will remain on the southern periphery of the low
through Sunday with heights rising Sunday night and Monday as
ridging builds in.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm Friday with cooler
readings by 5 to 10 degrees in the wake of the cold front for Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures are anticipated to moderate back to normal
levels for Monday Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected through the early morning mainly
due to ceilings. These conditions are expected to improve to VFR
after sunrise as the atmosphere mixes. Convection will develop
across the area impacting the TAFs sites this afternoon into the
evening as cold front approaches and gradually crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection should initiated by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours into
the evening. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and
this will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew
points in the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The
primary threat will be strong to damaging winds gusts.

Widespread MVFR condition are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection.

Overall winds will be southerly through the TAF period; 06Z/Wednesday.
At KALB, gusts into the teens are expected during the afternoon.


Outlook...

Wed Night-Thu Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Fri-Fri Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sat: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281011
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
611 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 611 AM EDT...Severe thunderstorms possible across much of
the region this afternoon into this evening...

A moist and increasingly unstable air mass will be in place
today. Already early this morning temperatures are quite mild in
the 60s, with dewpoints also in the 60s making it humid. Lots of
low stratus clouds around, but most of the area will see breaks
of sunshine by late morning into early afternoon, which will allow
for moderate instability to develop. The only area where the
stratus clouds and more stable conditions could hold on longer is
across eastern Dutchess, southern Berkshire, and Litchfield
counties where there is a Marginal Risk of severe storms, compared
to the greater Slight Risk farther west across the rest of the
area.

Large-scale ascent will result from low level convergence along a
slow moving cold front that will track eastward across the region
this afternoon and evening, combined with cyclonic vorticity
advection ahead of an upper level trough pushing eastward through
the eastern Great Lakes. This pattern will result in widespread
development of showers and storms, with hi-res models indicating
convective initiation across the western Adirondacks and Mohawk
Valley by early this afternoon. Storms will intensify and move
eastward into the Catskills and Hudson valley by mid to late
afternoon.

Thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind the primary
threat. SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg will provide enough
buoyancy to maintain persistent multicells given increasing deep
layer shear of 30-40 kt. Mitigating factor to large hail will be
relatively weak mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and `thin`
CAPE profile aloft. However, forecast sounding profiles also
showing potential for heavy rainfall within storms, which could
result in isolated flash flooding. See hydro section for details.

Showers and storms will move into western New England during the
evening, and should tend to weaken but still may produce gusty
winds and downpours.

High temps expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in most
locations, but will drop into the 60s during any persistent
showers or storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances for convection as we head into the long holiday weekend
then fair weather is expected.

A vigorous short-wave is expected to be rotating about the base
of an upper level low near southern Hudson Bay Canada Thursday
night through Friday night. This feature will be accompanied by a
cold front at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop and move across the region in response. Have limited
pops to chance for Friday and Friday night at this time due to
timing concerns.

The upper low is modeled to move slowly eastward across eastern
Canada over the holiday weekend eventually filling in and opening
up. Our region will remain on the southern periphery of the low
through Sunday with heights rising Sunday night and Monday as
ridging builds in.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm Friday with cooler
readings by 5 to 10 degrees in the wake of the cold front for Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures are anticipated to moderate back to normal
levels for Monday Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected through the early morning mainly
due to ceilings. These conditions are expected to improve to VFR
after sunrise as the atmosphere mixes. Convection will develop
across the area impacting the TAFs sites this afternoon into the
evening as cold front approaches and gradually crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection should initiated by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours into
the evening. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and
this will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew
points in the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The
primary threat will be strong to damaging winds gusts.

Widespread MVFR condition are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection.

Overall winds will be southerly through the TAF period; 06Z/Wednesday.
At KALB, gusts into the teens are expected during the afternoon.


Outlook...

Wed Night-Thu Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Fri-Fri Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sat: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280854
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
454 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will move into the North Country today
into tonight, triggering heavy showers and strong thunderstorms. The
strongest storms will develop from the eastern slopes of the
Adirondacks eastward across Vermont, with some potentially
producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail. Scattered
showers linger into Wednesday as an upper trough swings through,
but the end of the work week will see a return of warm and dry
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...Active Tuesday is in store for a large
part of the North Country, particularly focusing on an area from
the Northern Adirondacks eastward, as a slow-moving cold front
will spark scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by
early this afternoon into evening hrs. Storms will become strong
to occasionally severe and be capable of strong to at times
damaging winds, small mainly sub-severe hail, and locally heavy
rainfall capable of triggering isolated areas of flash flooding.
See the Hydrology section below for more details on the localized
heavy rainfall concern.

Cold front at 06z was positioned essentially along the St.
Lawrence River southeastward to just west of Syracuse. We remain
in deep southwest flow aloft trailing back to a shortwave trough
and associated 500 mb 45-50 kt jetstreak across the southern Great
Lakes. A mild and relatively moist air mass lies ahead of the
boundary across the North Country with temperatures in the 60s to
low 70s and dewpoints generally in the lower to mid 60s. Given
these conditions, there is hardly any convective inhibition noted
on SPC`s mesoanalysis. As such, I think we`ll be off and running,
so to speak, once we get some stronger sunshine and we start to
generate some surface convergence along the front with the
southerly winds. Nearly all CAMs (convection-allowing models) show
developing showers/storms between 15-17z on the Adirondacks,
advancing into the Champlain Valley by 18-20z, and Central and
Southern VT between 19-22z. Instability is plenty sufficient for
strong to severe storms with MUCAPEs of 1500-2000 J/kg, though is
limited by poor lapse rates aloft and of a "tall, skinny CAPE"
flavor. 0-6 km shear should support organized updrafts as well
with values around 35-40 kts. Given the deep shear vectors,
multicells should be the predominant mode and primarily capable of
gusty to damaging winds. Small hail would be a secondary concern
but I can`t discount the possibility of 1" hailstones in the
strongest cells. As storms should move over the same areas,
localized heavy rainfall capable of isolated flash flooding can`t
be discounted either even given the dry conditions. Since I`ve
maintained the enhanced wording for gusty winds, small hail and
heavy rain but went with areal coverage wording (sct to numerous
showers/storms). By evening, ongoing strong/severe storms should
be focused along or just east of the Champlain Valley. Waning
instability should result in a general weakening of thunderstorms.
I`ve kept the enhanced wording for gusty winds and hail through
03z, but we should see more of a focus on heavy rain into the
evening hours.

Highs should only top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s given the
timing of storms today, with lows ranging from the upper 50s to
lower/mid 60s highest for VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 454 AM EDT Tuesday...An upper trough will move across the
region on Wednesday with a chance of showers. Models showing some
destabilization as well, so will mention a slight chance for
thunderstorms on Wednesday. SPC has Vermont in a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. However...GFS 0-6 km bulk shear
showing strongest winds shifting east of the region on Wednesday,
so not buying into SPC marginal risk at this time. Feel western
Maine and New Hampshire will have a better chance for any severe
weather on Wednesday. The upper trough will swing east of teh
region Wednesday night, with fair and dry weather expected over
the north country Wednesday night through Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 454 AM EDT Tuesday...Friday will start out dry across the
region. GFS model hinting at a chance of showers and thunderstorms
Friday afternoon into Friday night. ECMWF model keeps Friday dry
and holds off on bringing in any showers until Friday night. Thus,
forecaster confidence in Friday afternoon forecast is low at this
time. An upper trough will be over the region on Saturday, so will
keep in a chance of showers in the forecast. Models now hinting at
a dry forecast from saturday night through the 4th of July.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Some MVFR stratus has advected in
southeast flow at RUT but otherwise VFR conditions across the
terminals. Expect the stratus at RUT to be generally short-lived
as low-level flow becomes more southerly. Fog isn`t likely as
winds will be strong enough to preclude. Winds south 7-12 kts
through rest of overnight.

Much more active weather then develops as heavy showers and
thunderstorms develop along a cold front starting around 16z
Tuesday at SLK and then advancing slowly eastward into PBG and
the VT terminals after 18z. Some storms may become strong to
severe during this timeframe, producing gusty winds and associated
turbulence, lightning and brief cig/visby reductions into the
MVFR/IFR category. Weakening trend expected around 01z. Winds
south 6-8 kts then becoming west to northwest 3-6 kts late in the
TAF period.

Outlook 06z Wednesday through Saturday...

06z Wednesday through 12z Wednesday...Weakening showers/storms
produce brief MVFR conditions especially for RUT and MPV but
generally VFR elsewhere.

12z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Generally VFR, possible brief
MVFR in diurnal showers.

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with IFR/LIFR radiational
fog at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

Saturday onward...VFR/MVFR with chances for scattered showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday... Risk of heavy rainfall remains in
place for today with strong to severe thunderstorms mainly from
the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks eastward to VT this
afternoon and evening. Low-level wind fields parallel to the cold
front should lead to training of convective cells, and if
persistent enough may trigger areas of isolated flash flooding.
PWAT values are not excessively high but are around 1.4-1.6".
Flash flood guidance (FFG) is also fairly high given the relative
dryness of late. 1 hour FFG is roughly 1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is
2.3-3.0". It might be hard to see that amount of rain in just 1
hour, but if we`ve got a slow moving line with repeated cells
moving across an area for 3 hours, that 3 hour FFG is not too hard
to achieve. After collaboration with surrounding WFOs, opted to
not issue a flash flood watch but will raise awareness of the
heavy rainfall and isolated flash flood concerns with a Special
Weather Statement this morning. Any flash flooding would be
localized to small basins or small urban and mountainous
locations. Larger main-stem river flooding is not expected.
Forecast QPF values through tonight range from 1 to 1.5", but
could be higher in more localized and persistent cell training.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...Boaters should remain aware of the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms nearing Lake
Champlain early this afternoon. Storms will be capable of frequent
lightning, heavy rainfall and gusty winds capable of creating
choppy waves. Boaters should be prepared to seek safe harbor if
threatening weather approaches. A Lake Thunderstorm Advisory may
become necessary today as the situation warrants.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Loconto
MARINE...Loconto




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280854
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
454 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will move into the North Country today
into tonight, triggering heavy showers and strong thunderstorms. The
strongest storms will develop from the eastern slopes of the
Adirondacks eastward across Vermont, with some potentially
producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail. Scattered
showers linger into Wednesday as an upper trough swings through,
but the end of the work week will see a return of warm and dry
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...Active Tuesday is in store for a large
part of the North Country, particularly focusing on an area from
the Northern Adirondacks eastward, as a slow-moving cold front
will spark scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by
early this afternoon into evening hrs. Storms will become strong
to occasionally severe and be capable of strong to at times
damaging winds, small mainly sub-severe hail, and locally heavy
rainfall capable of triggering isolated areas of flash flooding.
See the Hydrology section below for more details on the localized
heavy rainfall concern.

Cold front at 06z was positioned essentially along the St.
Lawrence River southeastward to just west of Syracuse. We remain
in deep southwest flow aloft trailing back to a shortwave trough
and associated 500 mb 45-50 kt jetstreak across the southern Great
Lakes. A mild and relatively moist air mass lies ahead of the
boundary across the North Country with temperatures in the 60s to
low 70s and dewpoints generally in the lower to mid 60s. Given
these conditions, there is hardly any convective inhibition noted
on SPC`s mesoanalysis. As such, I think we`ll be off and running,
so to speak, once we get some stronger sunshine and we start to
generate some surface convergence along the front with the
southerly winds. Nearly all CAMs (convection-allowing models) show
developing showers/storms between 15-17z on the Adirondacks,
advancing into the Champlain Valley by 18-20z, and Central and
Southern VT between 19-22z. Instability is plenty sufficient for
strong to severe storms with MUCAPEs of 1500-2000 J/kg, though is
limited by poor lapse rates aloft and of a "tall, skinny CAPE"
flavor. 0-6 km shear should support organized updrafts as well
with values around 35-40 kts. Given the deep shear vectors,
multicells should be the predominant mode and primarily capable of
gusty to damaging winds. Small hail would be a secondary concern
but I can`t discount the possibility of 1" hailstones in the
strongest cells. As storms should move over the same areas,
localized heavy rainfall capable of isolated flash flooding can`t
be discounted either even given the dry conditions. Since I`ve
maintained the enhanced wording for gusty winds, small hail and
heavy rain but went with areal coverage wording (sct to numerous
showers/storms). By evening, ongoing strong/severe storms should
be focused along or just east of the Champlain Valley. Waning
instability should result in a general weakening of thunderstorms.
I`ve kept the enhanced wording for gusty winds and hail through
03z, but we should see more of a focus on heavy rain into the
evening hours.

Highs should only top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s given the
timing of storms today, with lows ranging from the upper 50s to
lower/mid 60s highest for VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 454 AM EDT Tuesday...An upper trough will move across the
region on Wednesday with a chance of showers. Models showing some
destabilization as well, so will mention a slight chance for
thunderstorms on Wednesday. SPC has Vermont in a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. However...GFS 0-6 km bulk shear
showing strongest winds shifting east of the region on Wednesday,
so not buying into SPC marginal risk at this time. Feel western
Maine and New Hampshire will have a better chance for any severe
weather on Wednesday. The upper trough will swing east of teh
region Wednesday night, with fair and dry weather expected over
the north country Wednesday night through Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 454 AM EDT Tuesday...Friday will start out dry across the
region. GFS model hinting at a chance of showers and thunderstorms
Friday afternoon into Friday night. ECMWF model keeps Friday dry
and holds off on bringing in any showers until Friday night. Thus,
forecaster confidence in Friday afternoon forecast is low at this
time. An upper trough will be over the region on Saturday, so will
keep in a chance of showers in the forecast. Models now hinting at
a dry forecast from saturday night through the 4th of July.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Some MVFR stratus has advected in
southeast flow at RUT but otherwise VFR conditions across the
terminals. Expect the stratus at RUT to be generally short-lived
as low-level flow becomes more southerly. Fog isn`t likely as
winds will be strong enough to preclude. Winds south 7-12 kts
through rest of overnight.

Much more active weather then develops as heavy showers and
thunderstorms develop along a cold front starting around 16z
Tuesday at SLK and then advancing slowly eastward into PBG and
the VT terminals after 18z. Some storms may become strong to
severe during this timeframe, producing gusty winds and associated
turbulence, lightning and brief cig/visby reductions into the
MVFR/IFR category. Weakening trend expected around 01z. Winds
south 6-8 kts then becoming west to northwest 3-6 kts late in the
TAF period.

Outlook 06z Wednesday through Saturday...

06z Wednesday through 12z Wednesday...Weakening showers/storms
produce brief MVFR conditions especially for RUT and MPV but
generally VFR elsewhere.

12z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Generally VFR, possible brief
MVFR in diurnal showers.

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with IFR/LIFR radiational
fog at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

Saturday onward...VFR/MVFR with chances for scattered showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday... Risk of heavy rainfall remains in
place for today with strong to severe thunderstorms mainly from
the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks eastward to VT this
afternoon and evening. Low-level wind fields parallel to the cold
front should lead to training of convective cells, and if
persistent enough may trigger areas of isolated flash flooding.
PWAT values are not excessively high but are around 1.4-1.6".
Flash flood guidance (FFG) is also fairly high given the relative
dryness of late. 1 hour FFG is roughly 1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is
2.3-3.0". It might be hard to see that amount of rain in just 1
hour, but if we`ve got a slow moving line with repeated cells
moving across an area for 3 hours, that 3 hour FFG is not too hard
to achieve. After collaboration with surrounding WFOs, opted to
not issue a flash flood watch but will raise awareness of the
heavy rainfall and isolated flash flood concerns with a Special
Weather Statement this morning. Any flash flooding would be
localized to small basins or small urban and mountainous
locations. Larger main-stem river flooding is not expected.
Forecast QPF values through tonight range from 1 to 1.5", but
could be higher in more localized and persistent cell training.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...Boaters should remain aware of the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms nearing Lake
Champlain early this afternoon. Storms will be capable of frequent
lightning, heavy rainfall and gusty winds capable of creating
choppy waves. Boaters should be prepared to seek safe harbor if
threatening weather approaches. A Lake Thunderstorm Advisory may
become necessary today as the situation warrants.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Loconto
MARINE...Loconto




000
FXUS61 KBUF 280837
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
437 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool front that moved across the western counties overnight has
ushered in a notably cooler and less humid airmass. The more
comfortable conditions will last through Wednesday night before
warmer weather returns. Otherwise...while parts of the region could
experience a shower of thunderstorm today...high pressure moving
across the Great Lakes will promote fair dry weather until late in
the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
It will be cooler and less humid across the bulk of the forecast
area today...as more comfortable air will continue to work across
the Lower Great Lakes in the wake of a weak cool front. This front
pushed across the western counties overnight...but as it becomes
parallel to the mid level flow today...it will will temporarily
stall over the eastern portion of the state. This will become a
focus for some showers and thunderstorms...some of which could
include gusty winds and heavy rain east of Interstate 81 where a
plume of deeper moisture will also be in place.

While there will be an increasing risk for showers and thunderstorms
east of the Genesee Valley today...the bulk of our forecast area
will only experience some increasing clouds associated with an
approaching shortwave. This feature will have to be closely watched
later today though...as it could help to generate some widely
separated showers over the region late this afternoon into the
evening hours.

Later tonight...subsidence in the wake of the shortwave will
encourage the return of more widespread fair weather...although
clouds may linger into the morning hours.

Temperatures today will be some 10 degrees F lower over the
western counties than they were on Monday...as highs will be in
the mid to upper 70s. The twenty four hour difference will not be
as noticeable east of Lake Ontario though...as a complete airmass
change is not expected until the aforementioned shortwave pushes
the stalled front across New England tonight. It will then be cool
tonight with the mercury generally settling into the 50s. Some 40s
will be possible in the cooler Srn Tier valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On Wednesday the mid level trough will move from central NY at 12Z
to western New England by late afternoon. The proximity of the
trough and associated cyclonic flow combined with lingering moisture
will produce a few more scattered showers east of Lake Ontario, with
an isolated shower or two possible as far west as the Finger Lakes
and Genesee Valley. Expect a mix of clouds and sun in most areas
with the lingering moisture and cool air aloft promoting plenty of
cumulus and stratocumulus. Sunshine should increase later in the
afternoon across western NY as the deeper moisture begins to pull
away. Expect highs in the mid 70s across lower elevations and
around 70 on the hills.

The mid level trough will exit into northern New England Wednesday
night and take the deeper moisture and cyclonic flow with it. Any
isolated showers east of Lake Ontario will end during the evening
with skies clearing from west to east overnight as dry air and
subsidence build into the lower Great Lakes. The clearing skies,
light winds, and cool/dry airmass will allow for good radiational
cooling. Expect lows in the lower to mid 50s on the lake plains with
mid 40s in some of the cooler Southern Tier valleys.

High pressure builds into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes
Thursday with associated subsidence and dry air supporting plenty of
sunshine. The airmass will quickly moderate with highs back into the
lower 80s across lower elevations. High pressure will drift slowly
towards the east coast Thursday night with the mainly clear skies
continuing.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mid level trough will move east across Ontario and Quebec Friday
and Friday night, with a trailing cold front moving east across the
Great Lakes. The majority of the more organized large scale ascent
will remain north of the Canadian border with limited convergence
and moisture along the trailing surface cold front which will move
across our area. Local lake breeze boundaries will likely end up
producing better convergence than the cold front itself, with
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
Friday afternoon and evening. Coverage of any rainfall will remain
very sparse with little help to alleviate the dry soil conditions in
most areas.

High pressure builds back into the Great Lakes by Saturday and will
remain in place Sunday before drifting to the east coast Monday.
This will provide a dry and sunny holiday weekend with temperatures
in the mid 70s Saturday, warming back into the 80s by Monday for
Independence Day.

Looking a little farther ahead, the pattern may become a little more
active across the Great Lakes during the second half of next week as
zonal flow remains just north of the Canadian border and the ridge
builds northward into the midwest and Ohio Valley. This may place
our region closer to the travel corridor for one or more
thunderstorm complexes, but given the time range this is still
a low confidence forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditons will be in place across all of western and north
central New York today...although a weak cool front moving through
the region will become a focus for midday and afternoon convection.

Showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly more common from
the Finger Lakes eastward later today...with the most widespread
activity forecast to be east of KART and KSYR where thunderstorms
could become strong to severe.

For tonight...while there could be a few showers around during the
evening hours...VFR conditions should persist.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR with no operational impact.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A cool front passed over Lake Ontario overnight and is now in the
process of moving south across Lake Erie. Winds in the wake of this
front will veer to the west-northwest...but they are not forecast to
freshen to the point of requiring a small craft advisory for the
upcoming day. Nevertheless...this flow will create choppy conditions
east of Braddock Bay.

Surface High pressure will then build across the Lower Great Lakes
later tonight and Wednesday...and will remain over the region
through Thursday with generally light winds and negligible waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KALY 280834
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
434 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 336 AM EDT...

Severe thunderstorms possible across much of the region this
afternoon into this evening...

A moist and increasingly unstable air mass will be in place
today. Already early this morning temperatures are quite mild in
the 60s, with dewpoints also in the 60s making it humid. Lots of
low stratus clouds around early, but most of the area will see
breaks of sunshine by late morning into early afternoon, which
will allow for moderate instability to develop. The only area
where the stratus clouds and more stable conditions could hold on
longer is across eastern Dutchess, southern Berkshire, and
Litchfield counties where there is a Marginal Risk of severe
storms, compared to the greater Slight Risk farther west across
the rest of the area.

Large-scale ascent will result from low level convergence along a
slow moving cold front that will track eastward across the region
this afternoon and evening, combined with cyclonic vorticity
advection ahead of an upper level trough pushing eastward through
the eastern Great Lakes. This pattern will result in widespread
development of showers and storms, with hi-res models indicating
convective initiation across the western Adirondacks and Mohawk
Valley by early this afternoon. Storms will intensify and move
eastward into the Catskills and Hudson valley by mid to late
afternoon.

Thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind the primary
threat. SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg will provide enough
buoyancy to maintain persistent multicells given increasing deep
layer shear of 30-40 kt. Mitigating factor to large hail will be
relatively weak mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and `thin`
CAPE profile aloft. However, forecast sounding profiles also
showing potential for heavy rainfall within storms, which could
result in isolated flash flooding. See hydro section for details.

Showers and storms will move into western New England during the
evening, and should tend to weaken but still may produce gusty
winds and downpours.

High temps expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in most
locations, but will drop into the 60s during any persistent
showers or storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances for convection as we head into the long holiday weekend
then fair weather is expected.

A vigorous short-wave is expected to be rotating about the base
of an upper level low near southern Hudson Bay Canada Thursday
night through Friday night. This feature will be accompanied by a
cold front at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop and move across the region in response. Have limited
pops to chance for Friday and Friday night at this time due to
timing concerns.

The upper low is modeled to move slowly eastward across eastern
Canada over the holiday weekend eventually filling in and opening
up. Our region will remain on the southern periphery of the low
through Sunday with heights rising Sunday night and Monday as
ridging builds in.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm Friday with cooler
readings by 5 to 10 degrees in the wake of the cold front for Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures are anticipated to moderate back to normal
levels for Monday Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected through the early morning mainly
due to ceilings. These conditions are expected to improve to VFR
after sunrise as the atmosphere mixes. Convection will develop
across the area impacting the TAFs sites this afternoon into the
evening as cold front approaches and gradually crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection should initiated by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours into
the evening. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and
this will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew
points in the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The
primary threat will be strong to damaging winds gusts.

Widespread MVFR condition are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection.

Overall winds will be southerly through the TAF period; 06Z/Wednesday.
At KALB, gusts into the teens are expected during the afternoon.


Outlook...

Wed Night-Thu Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Fri-Fri Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sat: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 280834
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
434 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 336 AM EDT...

Severe thunderstorms possible across much of the region this
afternoon into this evening...

A moist and increasingly unstable air mass will be in place
today. Already early this morning temperatures are quite mild in
the 60s, with dewpoints also in the 60s making it humid. Lots of
low stratus clouds around early, but most of the area will see
breaks of sunshine by late morning into early afternoon, which
will allow for moderate instability to develop. The only area
where the stratus clouds and more stable conditions could hold on
longer is across eastern Dutchess, southern Berkshire, and
Litchfield counties where there is a Marginal Risk of severe
storms, compared to the greater Slight Risk farther west across
the rest of the area.

Large-scale ascent will result from low level convergence along a
slow moving cold front that will track eastward across the region
this afternoon and evening, combined with cyclonic vorticity
advection ahead of an upper level trough pushing eastward through
the eastern Great Lakes. This pattern will result in widespread
development of showers and storms, with hi-res models indicating
convective initiation across the western Adirondacks and Mohawk
Valley by early this afternoon. Storms will intensify and move
eastward into the Catskills and Hudson valley by mid to late
afternoon.

Thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind the primary
threat. SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg will provide enough
buoyancy to maintain persistent multicells given increasing deep
layer shear of 30-40 kt. Mitigating factor to large hail will be
relatively weak mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and `thin`
CAPE profile aloft. However, forecast sounding profiles also
showing potential for heavy rainfall within storms, which could
result in isolated flash flooding. See hydro section for details.

Showers and storms will move into western New England during the
evening, and should tend to weaken but still may produce gusty
winds and downpours.

High temps expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in most
locations, but will drop into the 60s during any persistent
showers or storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances for convection as we head into the long holiday weekend
then fair weather is expected.

A vigorous short-wave is expected to be rotating about the base
of an upper level low near southern Hudson Bay Canada Thursday
night through Friday night. This feature will be accompanied by a
cold front at the surface. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop and move across the region in response. Have limited
pops to chance for Friday and Friday night at this time due to
timing concerns.

The upper low is modeled to move slowly eastward across eastern
Canada over the holiday weekend eventually filling in and opening
up. Our region will remain on the southern periphery of the low
through Sunday with heights rising Sunday night and Monday as
ridging builds in.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm Friday with cooler
readings by 5 to 10 degrees in the wake of the cold front for Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures are anticipated to moderate back to normal
levels for Monday Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected through the early morning mainly
due to ceilings. These conditions are expected to improve to VFR
after sunrise as the atmosphere mixes. Convection will develop
across the area impacting the TAFs sites this afternoon into the
evening as cold front approaches and gradually crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection should initiated by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours into
the evening. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and
this will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew
points in the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The
primary threat will be strong to damaging winds gusts.

Widespread MVFR condition are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection.

Overall winds will be southerly through the TAF period; 06Z/Wednesday.
At KALB, gusts into the teens are expected during the afternoon.


Outlook...

Wed Night-Thu Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Fri-Fri Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sat: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KBGM 280832
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
432 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region
primarily this afternoon. Some of the thunderstorms could produce
damaging winds mainly in the western Catskills, Poconos and
Wyoming valley in northeast Pennsylvania. Mainly dry and cooler
weather will follow the front through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Early this morning a surface cold front was moving through
western New York as the associated upper level trof and jet
dynamics was well to the west over the central lakes. As this
front approaches the western forecast area primarily scattered
showers will develop by mid morning. Models continue to show the
convection along this boundary will intensify early this afternoon
as the atmosphere destabilizes and the upper level wave and
associated jet dynamics synch up with the surface feature. By this
time the airmass from I81 east is forecast to have ML CAPE values
of 1500-2000 J/KG (NAM) with the GFS around 800 J/KG. An average
value around 1200 J/KG seems reasonable along with deep shear
values around 40 knots. These values indicate the potential for
severe weather today and SPC continues to have the area primarily
from I81 east in a slight risk. The limiting factor continues to
be weak mid level lapse rates which may result in tall/skinny CAPE
if dewpoints don`t reach the upper 60s to around 70. The primary
threat continues to be damaging winds although very heavy downpours
are also possible as PWATs are near 1.50 inches. Recent dry
stretch has resulted in dry antecedent conditions which should
limit any hydro concerns. The best chances for severe weather will
reside in the western Catskills, Poconos and Wyoming valley in
northeast Pennsylvania. This activity may linger into the early
evening hours in the far southeast then end.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On wednesday a weak secondary surface trof may trigger some light
showers so will continue with slight chc pops for much of the
area. Wednesday night through Thursday night the region will
remain dry with surface high pressure moving from the Ohio valley
east across the vicinity to the eastern seaboard by Thursday
night. It will be cool during the overnight periods with lows in
the upper 40s to middle 50s and highs in the 70s on Wednesday
rising to around 80 on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
215 pm update... A progressive, fairly dry pattern overall, is
likely to continue this period.

An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front are
progged to impact the region Friday into Friday night. As such, we
have chance probabilities (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms.

Thereafter, it appears that we could have another extended stretch
of rain-free weather, with slowly building heights aloft, and
incoming surface high pressure.

Temperatures look fairly seasonable, with highs Friday mostly in
the 80s, dropping back a bit to the upper 70s-lower 80s for the
rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Complicated aviation forecast with a MVFR to IFR layer of low
clouds impacting the far southeast terminals this morning, dense
fog possible at KELM through daybreak, then convection by midday
most terminals.

Through daybreak, MVFR cigs at KAVP and MVFR to IFR cigs at KBGM
will continue. Some of these lower cigs may reach KRME but
confidence a bit lower here so I included just a TEMPO group. Fog
likely at KELM but it could be quite variable the next few hours,
bouncing from low end IFR to VFR. With a good shot at remaining
clear here however and fog already forming, below airport mins are
possible after 08Z. A return to VFR all terminals expectec between
12Z and 14Z.

Convection this afternoon occurs around 18Z, roughly along I-81
from near Binghamton and then moves south and east through 22Z.
With this scenario, highest confidence in thunderstorms will be at
KAVP, then KBGM. From KELM to KITH and KRME confidence much lower
as storms will fire near but perhaps just, just east of these
terminals. Here I went with smaller shorter TEMPO groups with the
duration expected to be over a smaller window. Drier weather by
tonight.

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.

Friday-Saturday...Although VFR expected much of the time, brief
restrictions with showers/thunderstorms are possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...Heden




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280823
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
423 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move slowly east passing across the area on
Wednesday. High pressure will follow Thursday. Another cold front
will move southeast across the area Friday night followed by High
pressure during the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A band of light to moderate rain extending from coastal NJ NE
across SW CT continues to move very slowly east across the region.
Most rainfall amounts ranged from 1/3 to 2/3-inch with HPN
measuring .92 inches with a maximum hourly rate of .49 inches.

Rain is forecast to taper off from W to E by 12z.

Otherwise...low stratus and patchy fog, locally dense will prevail
until around 15z.

A short wave trough will be moving SE toward the area along with
its` surface cold front reflection. With abundant low level
moisture in place and the cold front serving as the trigger, SCT
TSTMS are forecast to develop ahead of the cold front and move
toward the Lower Hudson Valley and Northern NJ aft 18z. The degree
of surface based instability is uncertain based on clouds
dissipating upstream.

In any case, there is a Slight Risk or severe TSTMs mainly for
Orange County and a Marginal Risk further east across NYC and SW
CT...mainly aft 20z with damaging winds being the primary threat.
Based on high sfc dew points and precipitable water contents, can
not rule out isolated flash flooding of low lying and poor
drainage areas.

An Outlook was issued for these potential hazards and impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The short wave trough is forecast to gradually move east with the
trough axis nearly overhead by 6 pm Wednesday.

Any potential severe TSTMs Tuesday evening should end by midnight
with showers ending by 10z Wednesday.

SCT instability TSTMs are possible aft 16z Wednesday with the
approach of the short wave trough axis.

Temperatures are forecast near normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As has been the case for the last several weeks, still no hot
weather on tap for the region with minor fluctuations around the
mean. The mean upper trough will continue to reside across eastern
Canada, the Great Lakes, and Northeast, while an amplified upper
ridge over the western U.S. gradually flattens into early next
week. At the same time, an upper low near Hudson Bay translates
east.

At the surface, weak high pressure over the Midwest builds into the
area Thursday and then offshore Thursday night ahead of an
approaching cold front and pre-frontal trough. The latter of which
is associated with the upper low/trough working across eastern
Canada. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday into
Friday night with the best chance being across the interior where
the greatest instability will exist. Deep-layer shear increases with
the approaching upper trough. Dry air could be a limiting factor for
any organization. Cold front works east of the area Saturday morning
with high pressure to follow through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A weak trough of low pressure will pass through the region through
the early morning hours. A cold front then approaches later today
and passes through the region late tonight through Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds 5-10 KT will increase to 10-15 KT later today. If
breaks of sunshine develop, winds for coastal terminals could be
around 5 kt stronger than forecast, along with potential gusts 20 to
25 kt.

MVFR/IFR conditions in fog/stratus through daybreak. Rain shield
east of KNYC and moving through SE CT and LI. Another area of
showers possible from 10-14Z.

Widespread fog/stratus likely on tap for most areas through the
afternoon with IFR/MVFR conditions.

Cold front approaches late in the day. SHRA/TSRA will develop
north and west of KNYC terminals and track east. Will carry PROB30
groups for KNYC and interior terminals. Not confident enough in
TSRA development for LI/SE CT.

Widespread fog/stratus will develop again late tonight with IFR
conditions.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

KLGA TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

KEWR TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

KHPN TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. IFR conditions
likely through most of the day.

KISP TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Late Tonight...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions
likely in showers/isolated tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions
possible via morning fog/low clouds and showers/isolated tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are forecast to generally remain below Small Craft
Advisory/SCA levels of 25 kt and 5 feet across the Atlantic Ocean
coastal waters through the period.

This Morning...Vsby of 1 to 3 nm possible in patchy fog with
scattered showers.

Late Afternoon through Tonight...Scattered TSTMs are possible with
the approach of a cold front along with Vsby of 1 to 3 NM in
patchy fog.

Cold frontal passages with wind shifts are forecast late
Wednesday and Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
This Morning: Up to 1/2-inch rainfall is possible across Long
Island and Southern CT.

This Afternoon through Tonight: 1/4 to 3/4-inches possible with
isolated higher amounts in heavier showers and SCT TSTMS. Can not
rule out isolated flash flooding of low lying poor drainage areas.

Friday Afternoon and Evening: Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may produce localized heavy rainfall, mainly north and west of
NYC.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/DW
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/DW
HYDROLOGY...GC/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280823
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
423 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move slowly east passing across the area on
Wednesday. High pressure will follow Thursday. Another cold front
will move southeast across the area Friday night followed by High
pressure during the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A band of light to moderate rain extending from coastal NJ NE
across SW CT continues to move very slowly east across the region.
Most rainfall amounts ranged from 1/3 to 2/3-inch with HPN
measuring .92 inches with a maximum hourly rate of .49 inches.

Rain is forecast to taper off from W to E by 12z.

Otherwise...low stratus and patchy fog, locally dense will prevail
until around 15z.

A short wave trough will be moving SE toward the area along with
its` surface cold front reflection. With abundant low level
moisture in place and the cold front serving as the trigger, SCT
TSTMS are forecast to develop ahead of the cold front and move
toward the Lower Hudson Valley and Northern NJ aft 18z. The degree
of surface based instability is uncertain based on clouds
dissipating upstream.

In any case, there is a Slight Risk or severe TSTMs mainly for
Orange County and a Marginal Risk further east across NYC and SW
CT...mainly aft 20z with damaging winds being the primary threat.
Based on high sfc dew points and precipitable water contents, can
not rule out isolated flash flooding of low lying and poor
drainage areas.

An Outlook was issued for these potential hazards and impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The short wave trough is forecast to gradually move east with the
trough axis nearly overhead by 6 pm Wednesday.

Any potential severe TSTMs Tuesday evening should end by midnight
with showers ending by 10z Wednesday.

SCT instability TSTMs are possible aft 16z Wednesday with the
approach of the short wave trough axis.

Temperatures are forecast near normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As has been the case for the last several weeks, still no hot
weather on tap for the region with minor fluctuations around the
mean. The mean upper trough will continue to reside across eastern
Canada, the Great Lakes, and Northeast, while an amplified upper
ridge over the western U.S. gradually flattens into early next
week. At the same time, an upper low near Hudson Bay translates
east.

At the surface, weak high pressure over the Midwest builds into the
area Thursday and then offshore Thursday night ahead of an
approaching cold front and pre-frontal trough. The latter of which
is associated with the upper low/trough working across eastern
Canada. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday into
Friday night with the best chance being across the interior where
the greatest instability will exist. Deep-layer shear increases with
the approaching upper trough. Dry air could be a limiting factor for
any organization. Cold front works east of the area Saturday morning
with high pressure to follow through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A weak trough of low pressure will pass through the region through
the early morning hours. A cold front then approaches later today
and passes through the region late tonight through Wednesday morning.

S/SE winds 5-10 KT will increase to 10-15 KT later today. If
breaks of sunshine develop, winds for coastal terminals could be
around 5 kt stronger than forecast, along with potential gusts 20 to
25 kt.

MVFR/IFR conditions in fog/stratus through daybreak. Rain shield
east of KNYC and moving through SE CT and LI. Another area of
showers possible from 10-14Z.

Widespread fog/stratus likely on tap for most areas through the
afternoon with IFR/MVFR conditions.

Cold front approaches late in the day. SHRA/TSRA will develop
north and west of KNYC terminals and track east. Will carry PROB30
groups for KNYC and interior terminals. Not confident enough in
TSRA development for LI/SE CT.

Widespread fog/stratus will develop again late tonight with IFR
conditions.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

KLGA TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

KEWR TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

KHPN TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. IFR conditions
likely through most of the day.

KISP TAF Comments: Low confidence in the forecast. AMDs expected
throughout the day for changes in flight categories.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Late Tonight...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions
likely in showers/isolated tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions
possible via morning fog/low clouds and showers/isolated tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are forecast to generally remain below Small Craft
Advisory/SCA levels of 25 kt and 5 feet across the Atlantic Ocean
coastal waters through the period.

This Morning...Vsby of 1 to 3 nm possible in patchy fog with
scattered showers.

Late Afternoon through Tonight...Scattered TSTMs are possible with
the approach of a cold front along with Vsby of 1 to 3 NM in
patchy fog.

Cold frontal passages with wind shifts are forecast late
Wednesday and Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
This Morning: Up to 1/2-inch rainfall is possible across Long
Island and Southern CT.

This Afternoon through Tonight: 1/4 to 3/4-inches possible with
isolated higher amounts in heavier showers and SCT TSTMS. Can not
rule out isolated flash flooding of low lying poor drainage areas.

Friday Afternoon and Evening: Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may produce localized heavy rainfall, mainly north and west of
NYC.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/DW
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/DW
HYDROLOGY...GC/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280805
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
405 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move slowly east passing across the area on
Wednesday. High pressure will follow Thursday. Another cold front
will move southeast across the area Friday night followed by High
pressure during the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A band of light to moderate rain extending from coastal NJ NE
across SW CT continues to move very slowly east across the region.
Most rainfall amounts ranged from 1/3 to 2/3-inch with HPN
measuring .92 inches with a maximum hourly rate of .49 inches.

Rain is forecast to taper off from W to E by 12z.

Otherwise...low stratus and patchy fog, locally dense will prevail
until around 15z.

A short wave trough will be moving SE toward the area along with
its` surface cold front reflection. With abundant low level
moisture in place and the cold front serving as the trigger, SCT
TSTMS are forecast to develop ahead of the cold front and move
toward the Lower Hudson Valley and Northern NJ aft 18z. The degree
of surface based instability is uncertain based on clouds
dissipating upstream.

In any case, there is a Slight Risk or severe TSTMs mainly for
Orange County and a Marginal Risk further east across NYC and SW
CT...mainly aft 20z with damaging winds being the primary threat.
Based on high sfc dew points and precipitable water contents, can
not rule out isolated flash flooding of low lying and poor
drainage areas.

An Outlook was issued for these potential hazards and impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The short wave trough is forecast to gradually move east with the
trough axis nearly overhead by 6 pm Wednesday.

Any potential severe TSTMs Tuesday evening should end by midnight
with showers ending by 10z Wednesday.

SCT instability TSTMs are possible aft 16z Wednesday with the
approach of the short wave trough axis.

Temperatures are forecast near normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mean upper trough will remain across Eastern Canada and the
Northeast through the period with near seasonable temps through
the weekend and mainly dry conditions. A high amplitude ridge
over the mid section on the country briefly expands east Friday
into Saturday with warming heights aloft and the approach of a
warm front Saturday afternoon and night. This is short lived
though as strong jet energy from the Northwest territories of
Canada dives southeast across Hudson Bay Saturday and into the
Northeast Sunday into Monday with a deepening cutoff low. This
will be preceded by a cold frontal passage on Sunday followed by
temps early next week at or below seasonable levels. Stayed with a
model consensus at this time, but should this solution materialize
a much colder airmass could be in store for Monday into Tuesday
with moderation by midweek as heights aloft begin to rise. The
best chance for rainfall is with the aforementioned warm front and
cold frontal passage Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. This
would be in the form of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Rainfall
amounts remain uncertain at this time due to the area being on
the eastern periphery of the overrunning rain shield.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak trough of low pressure will pass through the region through
the early morning hours. A cold front then approaches later today
and passes through the region late tonight through Wednesday
morning.

S/SE winds 5-10 KT will increase to 10-15 KT later today. If
breaks of sunshine develop, winds for coastal terminals could be
around 5 kt stronger than forecast, with gusts 20 to 25 kt.

MVFR/IFR conditions in rain/fog for the early morning hours. Rain
shield slowly working its way through KNYC terminals, and them
more showers develop towards daybreak.

Widespread fog/stratus likely on tap for most areas through the
afternoon with IFR/MVFR conditions.

Cold front approaches late in the day. SHRA/TSRA will develop
north and west of KNYC terminals and track east. Will carry PROB30
groups for KNYC and interior terminals. Not confident enough in
TSRA development for LI/SE CT.

Widespread fog/stratus will develop late tonight with IFR
conditions.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Tonight...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions
likely in showers/isolated tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions
possible via morning fog/low clouds and showers/isolated tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are forecast to generally remain below Small Craft
Advisory/SCA levels of 25 kt and 5 feet across the Atlantic Ocean
coastal waters through the period.

This Morning...Vsby of 1 to 3 nm possible in patchy fog with
scattered showers.

Late Afternoon through Tonight...Scattered TSTMs are possible with
the approach of a cold front along with Vsby of 1 to 3 NM in
patchy fog.

Cold frontal passages with wind shifts are forecast late
Wednesday, Friday night and Sunday.

A cold frontal passage on Sunday will be followed by a stronger
NW flow that could bring marginal SCA conditions to the waters
late Sunday into Monday, with the best chance being across the
ocean waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
This Morning: Up to 1/2-inch rainfall is possible across Long
Island and Southern CT.

This Afternoon through Tonight: 1/4 to 3/4-inches possible with
isolated higher amounts in heavier showers and SCT TSTMS. Can not
rule out isolated flash flooding of low lying poor drainage areas.

Friday Afternoon and Evening: Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may produce localized heavy rainfall, mainly north and west of
NYC.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/DW
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/DW
HYDROLOGY...GC/DW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280758
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
358 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will move into the North Country today
into tonight, triggering heavy showers and strong thunderstorms. The
strongest storms will develop from the eastern slopes of the
Adirondacks eastward across Vermont, with some potentially
producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail. Scattered
showers linger into Wednesday as an upper trough swings through,
but the end of the work week will see a return of warm and dry
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...Active Tuesday is in store for a large
part of the North Country, particularly focusing on an area from
the Northern Adirondacks eastward, as a slow-moving cold front
will spark scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by
early this afternoon into evening hrs. Storms will become strong
to occasionally severe and be capable of strong to at times
damaging winds, small mainly sub-severe hail, and locally heavy
rainfall capable of triggering isolated areas of flash flooding.
See the Hydrology section below for more details on the localized
heavy rainfall concern.

Cold front at 06z was positioned essentially along the St.
Lawrence River southeastward to just west of Syracuse. We remain
in deep southwest flow aloft trailing back to a shortwave trough
and associated 500 mb 45-50 kt jetstreak across the southern Great
Lakes. A mild and relatively moist air mass lies ahead of the
boundary across the North Country with temperatures in the 60s to
low 70s and dewpoints generally in the lower to mid 60s. Given
these conditions, there is hardly any convective inhibition noted
on SPC`s mesoanalysis. As such, I think we`ll be off and running,
so to speak, once we get some stronger sunshine and we start to
generate some surface convergence along the front with the
southerly winds. Nearly all CAMs (convection-allowing models) show
developing showers/storms between 15-17z on the Adirondacks,
advancing into the Champlain Valley by 18-20z, and Central and
Southern VT between 19-22z. Instability is plenty sufficient for
strong to severe storms with MUCAPEs of 1500-2000 J/kg, though is
limited by poor lapse rates aloft and of a "tall, skinny CAPE"
flavor. 0-6 km shear should support organized updrafts as well
with values around 35-40 kts. Given the deep shear vectors,
multicells should be the predominant mode and primarily capable of
gusty to damaging winds. Small hail would be a secondary concern
but I can`t discount the possibility of 1" hailstones in the
strongest cells. As storms should move over the same areas,
localized heavy rainfall capable of isolated flash flooding can`t
be discounted either even given the dry conditions. Since I`ve
maintained the enhanced wording for gusty winds, small hail and
heavy rain but went with areal coverage wording (sct to numerous
showers/storms). By evening, ongoing strong/severe storms should
be focused along or just east of the Champlain Valley. Waning
instability should result in a general weakening of thunderstorms.
I`ve kept the enhanced wording for gusty winds and hail through
03z, but we should see more of a focus on heavy rain into the
evening hours.

Highs should only top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s given the
timing of storms today, with lows ranging from the upper 50s to
lower/mid 60s highest for VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...no huge changes in the forecast. at the
start of tuesday evening, we should have a line of convection
(likely focused across Vermont) that will be pushing slowly east.
looks like a threat for locally heavy rain will continue until
about midnight. model guidance indicates a shortwave that will
move into the region during the early evening. thinking this will
help to increase the coverage of convection. add in some "cell
training", some locally heavy rain is a distinct possibility. see
the hydro section below for a few more details.

wednesday will be quieter than tuesday, however a few showers
across the north are possible. a stronger shortwave will zip
across the region during the day, however low level moisture is
quite limited (precipitable water values well below 1"). will
probably see a few showers develop across the higher terrain, thus
have painted in some 30-40% pops. limited instability, so not
looking for any thunderstorms.

wednesday night will be quiet as weak high pressure starts to
build in. i suppose we could see some areas of river valley fog.

stuck with model guidance blends for temperatures. should average
out close to normal for this time of year. lots of 70s to around
80f for wednesday. generally 50s/close to 60f for overnight lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...initial glance at the upcoming July 4TH
Holiday Weekend indicates pretty decent weather for all the
outdoor activities planned. i think most everyone will be pleased
with that tidbit of information!

12z guidance (GFS & ECMWF) are in relatively good agreement, so
the featured forecast is basically a blend of what we`ve had
previously along with the newest data. some comments on each day:

thursday: should be a fine day with near normal temperatures and
relatively low humidity thanks to high pressure overhead.

friday: upper trough will be moving into the region during the
day. most of the energy is far to our north, but we`ll have
marginal instability and moisture around to trigger a few showers
and t-storms.

saturday: cyclonic flow along with slightly cool temperatures
aloft combined with daytime heating should result in a few
showers, mainly across higher terrain. however for the vast
majority of the region the vast majority of the time it will be
dry with partly sunny skies. temperatures a little below normal,
but still quite comfy.

sunday: looking similar to saturday. a little less low level
moisture, so any showers will be lighter and harder to find. have
only 15-20% chance of rain for the higher terrain. temperatures
will again be just a few degrees below normal, but still comfy.
another "get outside and enjoy it" kind of day.

Monday July 4th: see above.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Some MVFR stratus has advected in
southeast flow at RUT but otherwise VFR conditions across the
terminals. Expect the stratus at RUT to be generally short-lived
as low-level flow becomes more southerly. Fog isn`t likely as
winds will be strong enough to preclude. Winds south 7-12 kts
through rest of overnight.

Much more active weather then develops as heavy showers and
thunderstorms develop along a cold front starting around 16z
Tuesday at SLK and then advancing slowly eastward into PBG and
the VT terminals after 18z. Some storms may become strong to
severe during this timeframe, producing gusty winds and associated
turbulence, lightning and brief cig/visby reductions into the
MVFR/IFR category. Weakening trend expected around 01z. Winds
south 6-8 kts then becoming west to northwest 3-6 kts late in the
TAF period.

Outlook 06z Wednesday through Saturday...

06z Wednesday through 12z Wednesday...Weakening showers/storms
produce brief MVFR conditions especially for RUT and MPV but
generally VFR elsewhere.

12z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Generally VFR, possible brief
MVFR in diurnal showers.

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with IFR/LIFR radiational
fog at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

Saturday onward...VFR/MVFR with chances for scattered showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday... Risk of heavy rainfall remains in
place for today with strong to severe thunderstorms mainly from
the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks eastward to VT this
afternoon and evening. Low-level wind fields parallel to the cold
front should lead to training of convective cells, and if
persistent enough may trigger areas of isolated flash flooding.
PWAT values are not excessively high but are around 1.4-1.6".
Flash flood guidance (FFG) is also fairly high given the relative
dryness of late. 1 hour FFG is roughly 1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is
2.3-3.0". It might be hard to see that amount of rain in just 1
hour, but if we`ve got a slow moving line with repeated cells
moving across an area for 3 hours, that 3 hour FFG is not too hard
to achieve. After collaboration with surrounding WFOs, opted to
not issue a flash flood watch but will raise awareness of the
heavy rainfall and isolated flash flood concerns with a Special
Weather Statement this morning. Any flash flooding would be
localized to small basins or small urban and mountainous
locations. Larger main-stem river flooding is not expected.
Forecast QPF values through tonight range from 1 to 1.5", but
could be higher in more localized and persistent cell training.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...Boaters should remain aware of the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms nearing Lake
Champlain early this afternoon. Storms will be capable of frequent
lightning, heavy rainfall and gusty winds capable of creating
choppy waves. Boaters should be prepared to seek safe harbor if
threatening weather approaches. A Lake Thunderstorm Advisory may
become necessary today as the situation warrants.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Loconto
MARINE...Loconto




000
FXUS61 KBUF 280750
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
350 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool front that moved across the western counties overnight has
ushered in a notably cooler and less humid airmass. The more
comfortable conditions will last through Wednesday night before
warmer weather returns. Otherwise...while parts of the region could
experience a shower of thunderstorm today...high pressure moving
across the Great Lakes will promote fair dry weather until late in
the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
It will be cooler and less humid across the bulk of the forecast
area today...as more comfortable air will continue to work across
the Lower Great Lakes in the wake of a weak cool front. This front
pushed across the western counties overnight...but as it becomes
parallel to the mid level flow today...it will will temporarily
stall over the eastern portion of the state. This will become a
focus for some showers and thunderstorms...some of which could
include gusty winds and heavy rain east of Interstate 81 where a
plume of deeper moisture will also be in place.

While there will be an increasing risk for showers and thunderstorms
east of the Genesee Valley today...the bulk of our forecast area
will only experience some increasing clouds associated with an
approaching shortwave. This feature will have to be closely watched
later today though...as it could help to generate some widely
separated showers over the region late this afternoon into the
evening hours.

Later tonight...subsidence in the wake of the shortwave will
encourage the return of more widespread fair weather...although
clouds may linger into the morning hours.

Temperatures today will be some 10 degrees F lower over the
western counties than they were on Monday...as highs will be in
the mid to upper 70s. The twenty four difference will not be as
noticeable east of Lake Ontario though...as a complete airmass
change is not expected until the aforementioned shortwave pushes the
stalled front across New England tonight. It will then be cool
tonight with the mercury generally settling into the 50s. Some 40s
will be possible in the cooler Srn Tier valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On Wednesday the mid level trough will move from central NY at 12Z
to western New England by late afternoon. The proximity of the
trough and associated cyclonic flow combined with lingering moisture
will produce a few more scattered showers east of Lake Ontario, with
an isolated shower or two possible as far west as the Finger Lakes
and Genesee Valley. Expect a mix of clouds and sun in most areas
with the lingering moisture and cool air aloft promoting plenty of
cumulus and stratocumulus. Sunshine should increase later in the
afternoon across western NY as the deeper moisture begins to pull
away. Expect highs in the mid 70s across lower elevations and
around 70 on the hills.

The mid level trough will exit into northern New England Wednesday
night and take the deeper moisture and cyclonic flow with it. Any
isolated showers east of Lake Ontario will end during the evening
with skies clearing from west to east overnight as dry air and
subsidence build into the lower Great Lakes. The clearing skies,
light winds, and cool/dry airmass will allow for good radiational
cooling. Expect lows in the lower to mid 50s on the lake plains with
mid 40s in some of the cooler Southern Tier valleys.

High pressure builds into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes
Thursday with associated subsidence and dry air supporting plenty of
sunshine. The airmass will quickly moderate with highs back into the
lower 80s across lower elevations. High pressure will drift slowly
towards the east coast Thursday night with the mainly clear skies
continuing.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mid level trough will move east across Ontario and Quebec Friday
and Friday night, with a trailing cold front moving east across the
Great Lakes. The majority of the more organized large scale ascent
will remain north of the Canadian border with limited convergence
and moisture along the trailing surface cold front which will move
across our area. Local lake breeze boundaries will likely end up
producing better convergence than the cold front itself, with
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
Friday afternoon and evening. Coverage of any rainfall will remain
very sparse with little help to alleviate the dry soil conditions in
most areas.

High pressure builds back into the Great Lakes by Saturday and will
remain in place Sunday before drifting to the east coast Monday.
This will provide a dry and sunny holiday weekend with temperatures
in the mid 70s Saturday, warming back into the 80s by Monday for
Independence Day.

Looking a little farther ahead, the pattern may become a little more
active across the Great Lakes during the second half of next week as
zonal flow remains just north of the Canadian border and the ridge
builds northward into the midwest and Ohio Valley. This may place
our region closer to the travel corridor for one or more
thunderstorm complexes, but given the time range this is still
a low confidence forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditons will be in place across all of western and north
central New York today...although a weak cool front moving through
the region will become a focus for midday and afternoon convection.

Showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly more common from
the Finger Lakes eastward later today...with the most widespread
activity forecast to be east of KART and KSYR where thunderstorms
could become strong to severe.

For tonight...while there could be a few showers around during the
evening hours...VFR conditions should persist.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR with no operational impact.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A cool front passed over Lake Ontario overnight and is now in the
process of moving south across Lake Erie. Winds in the wake of this
front will veer to the west-northwest...but they are not forecast to
freshen to the point of requiring a small craft advisory for the
upcoming day. Nevertheless...this flow will create choppy conditions
east of Braddock Bay.

Surface High pressure will then build across the Lower Great Lakes
later tonight and Wednesday...and will remain over the region
through Thursday with generally light winds and negligible waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KALY 280736
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
336 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 336 AM EDT...

Severe thunderstorms possible across much of the region this
afternoon into this evening...

A moist and increasingly unstable air mass will be in place
today. Already early this morning temperatures are quite mild in
the 60s, with dewpoints also in the 60s making it humid. Lots of
low stratus clouds around early, but most of the area will see
breaks of sunshine by late morning into early afternoon, which
will allow for moderate instability to develop. The only area
where the stratus clouds and more stable conditions could hold on
longer is across eastern Dutchess, southern Berkshire, and
Litchfield counties where there is a Marginal Risk of severe
storms, compared to the greater Slight Risk farther west across
the rest of the area.

Large-scale ascent will result from low level convergence along a
slow moving cold front that will track eastward across the region
this afternoon and evening, combined with cyclonic vorticity
advection ahead of an upper level trough pushing eastward through
the eastern Great Lakes. This pattern will result in widespread
development of showers and storms, with hi-res models indicating
convective initiation across the western Adirondacks and Mohawk
Valley by early this afternoon. Storms will intensify and move
eastward into the Catskills and Hudson valley by mid to late
afternoon.

Thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind the primary
threat. SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg will provide enough
buoyancy to maintain persistent multicells given increasing deep
layer shear of 30-40 kt. Mitigating factor to large hail will be
relatively weak mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and `thin`
CAPE profile aloft. However, forecast sounding profiles also
showing potential for heavy rainfall within storms, which could
result in isolated flash flooding. See hydro section for details.

Showers and storms will move into western New England during the
evening, and should tend to weaken but still may produce gusty
winds and downpours.

High temps expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in most
locations, but will drop into the 60s during any persistent
showers or storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected through the early morning mainly
due to ceilings. These conditions are expected to improve to VFR
after sunrise as the atmosphere mixes. Convection will develop
across the area impacting the TAFs sites this afternoon into the
evening as cold front approaches and gradually crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection should initiated by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours into
the evening. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and
this will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew
points in the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The
primary threat will be strong to damaging winds gusts.

Widespread MVFR condition are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection.

Overall winds will be southerly through the TAF period; 06Z/Wednesday.
At KALB, gusts into the teens are expected during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night-Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 280736
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
336 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 336 AM EDT...

Severe thunderstorms possible across much of the region this
afternoon into this evening...

A moist and increasingly unstable air mass will be in place
today. Already early this morning temperatures are quite mild in
the 60s, with dewpoints also in the 60s making it humid. Lots of
low stratus clouds around early, but most of the area will see
breaks of sunshine by late morning into early afternoon, which
will allow for moderate instability to develop. The only area
where the stratus clouds and more stable conditions could hold on
longer is across eastern Dutchess, southern Berkshire, and
Litchfield counties where there is a Marginal Risk of severe
storms, compared to the greater Slight Risk farther west across
the rest of the area.

Large-scale ascent will result from low level convergence along a
slow moving cold front that will track eastward across the region
this afternoon and evening, combined with cyclonic vorticity
advection ahead of an upper level trough pushing eastward through
the eastern Great Lakes. This pattern will result in widespread
development of showers and storms, with hi-res models indicating
convective initiation across the western Adirondacks and Mohawk
Valley by early this afternoon. Storms will intensify and move
eastward into the Catskills and Hudson valley by mid to late
afternoon.

Thunderstorms could become severe with damaging wind the primary
threat. SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg will provide enough
buoyancy to maintain persistent multicells given increasing deep
layer shear of 30-40 kt. Mitigating factor to large hail will be
relatively weak mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and `thin`
CAPE profile aloft. However, forecast sounding profiles also
showing potential for heavy rainfall within storms, which could
result in isolated flash flooding. See hydro section for details.

Showers and storms will move into western New England during the
evening, and should tend to weaken but still may produce gusty
winds and downpours.

High temps expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in most
locations, but will drop into the 60s during any persistent
showers or storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Hudson
valley eastward into western New England this evening and
overnight. Will continue to mention likely showers and
thunderstorms for these areas, gradually tapering off from west to
east. The cold front should clear eastern portions of the area by
sunrise Wednesday.

There will still be a threat of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday, as the upper level trough axis is
forecast to be positioned just to our west. Some of the storms
could be strong during the afternoon mainly for areas north and
east of the Hudson Valley depending on how much instability
develops ahead of the trough. The highest dewpoints will likely be
displaced to our east across central/eastern New England, but
lapse rates will be steepening due to the trough moving through.

Chances for leftover showers/storms should end Wednesday evening
as the trough shifts eastward into eastern New England. High
pressure will then build eastward from the Midwest and Great
Lakes, providing dry conditions and comfortably low humidity
levels with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected through the early morning mainly
due to ceilings. These conditions are expected to improve to VFR
after sunrise as the atmosphere mixes. Convection will develop
across the area impacting the TAFs sites this afternoon into the
evening as cold front approaches and gradually crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection should initiated by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours into
the evening. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and
this will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew
points in the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The
primary threat will be strong to damaging winds gusts.

Widespread MVFR condition are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection.

Overall winds will be southerly through the TAF period; 06Z/Wednesday.
At KALB, gusts into the teens are expected during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night-Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will slowly move across our region this afternoon
and tonight, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Some storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
A disturbance will move through on Wednesday with a few more
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing dry weather.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 55 to 65 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 85 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Wednesday
will be around 40 to 55 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly tonight around 5 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of and along a slow moving cold
front. Basin average rainfall will be around a half inch to an
inch, however locally heavy rainfall could result in isolated
amounts near or exceeding two inches. Ponding of water will occur
within thunderstorms, and even isolated flash flooding is possible
within persistent slow moving downpours. Antecedent conditions are
very dry though, so widespread hydro issues are not expected.

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
with light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KBUF 280559
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
159 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A moisture starved cold front will cross the western counties during
the pre dawn hours...and this will usher in a notably cooler and
more comfortable airmass for Tuesday and Wednesday. While parts of
the region could experience a shower of thunderstorm this
afternoon...high pressure moving across the Great Lakes will promote
fair dry weather through at least Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
It will be cooler and less humid across the bulk of the forecast
area today...as more comfortable air will continue to work across
the Lower Great Lakes in the wake of a weak cool front. This front
pushed across the western counties overnight...but as it becomes
parallel to the mid level flow today...it will will temporarily
stall over the eastern portion of the state. This will become a
focus for some showers and thunderstorms...some of which could
include gusty winds and heavy rain east of Interstate 81.

While there will be an increasing risk for showers and thunderstorms
east of the Genesee Valley today...the bulk of our forecast area
will only experience some increasing clouds associated with an
approaching shortwave. This feature will have to be closely watched
later today though...as it could help to generate some widely
separated showers over the region into the evening hours.

Temperatures today will be some 10 degrees F lower over the
western counties than they were on Monday...as highs will be in
the mid to upper 70s. The twenty four difference will not be as
noticeable east of Lake Ontario though...as a complete airmass
change is not expected until the aforementioned shortwave pushes
the stalled front across New England Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On Tuesday night a closed 500 mb low will track north of Lake
Ontario with its trough axis forecast to slowly move across our
region. Although this will be fairly strong feature, it will pass
overnight with no diurnal instability. As a result, expect the areal
coverage of showers to be spotty at best with little rainfall in
most areas to help with dry soil conditions. Cloud cover will limit
radiational cooling, but the cold air mass will still support lows
averaging in the lower to mid 50s.

On Wednesday the trough axis will slowly move from eastern New York
into New England. Due to the closer proximity of the trough there
maybe some showers across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Any
showers would be along or inland of the lake breeze which will
extend northeast of Lake Ontario. This is in line with a consensus
of guidance which has light convectively driven QPF in this region.
There will be limited instability here but with cool air aloft an
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Otherwise the rest of the
area will see a mix of sun and clouds as low level moisture
initially forces diurnal cumulus to develop inland from the lakes
before mixing out later in the day. Temperatures will remain just a
tad below average with highs in the mid 70s at lower elevations and
around 70 across higher terrain.

Dry weather will return after this, with high pressure forecast to
build across the Ohio valley Wednesday and then shift across the
lower Great Lakes through Thursday night. This will result in fair
weather and mostly clear skies throughout the period. Temperatures
on Thursday will be seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be on the cool side, especially Wednesday
night when temperatures in the Southern Tier valleys are expected to
drop into the mid to upper 40s. Temperature forecasts reflect a
slightly wider diurnal temperature swing than consensus guidance due
to the dry airmass influenced by high pressure.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Friday a mid level trough will pass across the region, with a weak
cold front passing across WNY and CNY. We will continue with low
chance pops along this front due to the frontal passage and
favorable dynamics aloft, despite moisture fields that are not
overly impressive.

Saturday through Monday, July 4th, surface high pressure will slide
from the Western Great Lakes region to the Eastern Great Lakes
region. A mean long wave trough aloft will limit the warming
associated with this surface high. Afternoon temperatures will warm
from the mid 70s Friday, to the lower 80s by Monday. There may be a
stray shower east of Lake Ontario Saturday with the presence of the
upper level low...otherwise mostly sunny skies and dry weather will
prevail through the weekend, with comfortable dewpoints.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditons will be in place across all of western and north
central New York for the remainder of the overnight into Tuesday...
although a weak cool front moving through the region will become a
focus for midday and afternoon convection.

Showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly more common from
the Finger Lakes eastward later today...with the most widespread
activity forecast to be east of KART and KSYR.

For Tuesday night...while there could be a few showers around during
the evening hours...VFR conditions should persist.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A cool front passed over Lake Ontario earlier this night and is now
in the process of moving south across Lake Erie. Winds in the wake
of this front will veer to the west-northwest...but they are not
forecast to freshen to the point of requiring a small craft advisory
for the upcoming day. Nevertheless...this flow will create choppy
conditions east of Braddock Bay.

Surface High pressure will then build across the Lower Great Lakes
later Tuesday night and Wednesday...and will remain over the region
through Thursday with generally light winds and negligible waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...LEVAN/RSH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 280559
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
159 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A moisture starved cold front will cross the western counties during
the pre dawn hours...and this will usher in a notably cooler and
more comfortable airmass for Tuesday and Wednesday. While parts of
the region could experience a shower of thunderstorm this
afternoon...high pressure moving across the Great Lakes will promote
fair dry weather through at least Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
It will be cooler and less humid across the bulk of the forecast
area today...as more comfortable air will continue to work across
the Lower Great Lakes in the wake of a weak cool front. This front
pushed across the western counties overnight...but as it becomes
parallel to the mid level flow today...it will will temporarily
stall over the eastern portion of the state. This will become a
focus for some showers and thunderstorms...some of which could
include gusty winds and heavy rain east of Interstate 81.

While there will be an increasing risk for showers and thunderstorms
east of the Genesee Valley today...the bulk of our forecast area
will only experience some increasing clouds associated with an
approaching shortwave. This feature will have to be closely watched
later today though...as it could help to generate some widely
separated showers over the region into the evening hours.

Temperatures today will be some 10 degrees F lower over the
western counties than they were on Monday...as highs will be in
the mid to upper 70s. The twenty four difference will not be as
noticeable east of Lake Ontario though...as a complete airmass
change is not expected until the aforementioned shortwave pushes
the stalled front across New England Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On Tuesday night a closed 500 mb low will track north of Lake
Ontario with its trough axis forecast to slowly move across our
region. Although this will be fairly strong feature, it will pass
overnight with no diurnal instability. As a result, expect the areal
coverage of showers to be spotty at best with little rainfall in
most areas to help with dry soil conditions. Cloud cover will limit
radiational cooling, but the cold air mass will still support lows
averaging in the lower to mid 50s.

On Wednesday the trough axis will slowly move from eastern New York
into New England. Due to the closer proximity of the trough there
maybe some showers across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Any
showers would be along or inland of the lake breeze which will
extend northeast of Lake Ontario. This is in line with a consensus
of guidance which has light convectively driven QPF in this region.
There will be limited instability here but with cool air aloft an
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Otherwise the rest of the
area will see a mix of sun and clouds as low level moisture
initially forces diurnal cumulus to develop inland from the lakes
before mixing out later in the day. Temperatures will remain just a
tad below average with highs in the mid 70s at lower elevations and
around 70 across higher terrain.

Dry weather will return after this, with high pressure forecast to
build across the Ohio valley Wednesday and then shift across the
lower Great Lakes through Thursday night. This will result in fair
weather and mostly clear skies throughout the period. Temperatures
on Thursday will be seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be on the cool side, especially Wednesday
night when temperatures in the Southern Tier valleys are expected to
drop into the mid to upper 40s. Temperature forecasts reflect a
slightly wider diurnal temperature swing than consensus guidance due
to the dry airmass influenced by high pressure.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Friday a mid level trough will pass across the region, with a weak
cold front passing across WNY and CNY. We will continue with low
chance pops along this front due to the frontal passage and
favorable dynamics aloft, despite moisture fields that are not
overly impressive.

Saturday through Monday, July 4th, surface high pressure will slide
from the Western Great Lakes region to the Eastern Great Lakes
region. A mean long wave trough aloft will limit the warming
associated with this surface high. Afternoon temperatures will warm
from the mid 70s Friday, to the lower 80s by Monday. There may be a
stray shower east of Lake Ontario Saturday with the presence of the
upper level low...otherwise mostly sunny skies and dry weather will
prevail through the weekend, with comfortable dewpoints.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditons will be in place across all of western and north
central New York for the remainder of the overnight into Tuesday...
although a weak cool front moving through the region will become a
focus for midday and afternoon convection.

Showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly more common from
the Finger Lakes eastward later today...with the most widespread
activity forecast to be east of KART and KSYR.

For Tuesday night...while there could be a few showers around during
the evening hours...VFR conditions should persist.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A cool front passed over Lake Ontario earlier this night and is now
in the process of moving south across Lake Erie. Winds in the wake
of this front will veer to the west-northwest...but they are not
forecast to freshen to the point of requiring a small craft advisory
for the upcoming day. Nevertheless...this flow will create choppy
conditions east of Braddock Bay.

Surface High pressure will then build across the Lower Great Lakes
later Tuesday night and Wednesday...and will remain over the region
through Thursday with generally light winds and negligible waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...LEVAN/RSH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 280555
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
155 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will be mainly dry but mild and muggy tonight ahead of a
cold front. This front will bring showers and storms to the area
Tuesday then be followed by cooler and drier weather for midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
900 pm update...
Rain showers tracked eastward across Oneida county earlier this
evening but have since moved east and dissipated. A weak boundary
situated N-S from the Finger Lakes southward into n-central PA has
started to wash out a bit and lift back to the north as a weak
push of moisture from the south begins to move in. Have dropped
all mention of showers and storms from the forecast for the rest
of tonight. Boundary layer has become stable enough to keep all
convective development on hold until later tomorrow morning.
There is still some uncertainty concerning the areal extent of
cloud cover expected tonight and tomorrow morning. The clouds will
have a significant event on temperatures tonight and
tomorrow...along with an impact on eventual convective potential
late tomorrow morning and into the early afternoon. More cloud
cover longer across the region will inhibit the amt of
instability...while less cloud cover will allow for stronger
destabilization and potentially stronger storms. Rest of the
forecast still on track.

Previous discussion...
Skies are beginning to clear west to east across the area in the
wake of an initial area of showers that is now located over far
S/E zones as of the mid afternoon. In the wake of this first
area, destabilization is occurring over Finger Lakes area into
Lake Plain as temperatures are warming with moist conditions in
the low levels. A cold front that will affect tomorrow is still
located upstream over southern Ontario with area in southerly
flow. For the late afternoon into early this evening, first area
of showers will continue to move east and exit S/E portions of the
CWA by this evening. Meanwhile, expect some isolated showers or
storms may form over remaining areas where clearing and
destabilization is occurring.

Mainly quiet weather for tonight as any showers/storms diminish
after sunset. Conditions will be mild and muggy in moist slot ahead
of cold front. Also, the abundant moisture in the lower levels
looks to result in low level stratus formation overnight
especially from NE PA into the southern tier. Lows will be mainly
in the mid 60s.

For Tuesday, severe weather threat looks a little higher based on
the latest suite of model guidance. Early in the day, slow moving
cold front will be near west edge of the CWA and will slowly
advance east. Low stratus should mix out through the morning and
allow for enough destabilization for showers and thunderstorms to
fire along and just east of the front around midday into the early
afternoon (15-18z). This should occur near or just west of the
I-81 corridor. Latest model guidance indicates ML CAPES by this
time of around 700-900 J/kG (GFS) to as high as 2000-2500 J/KG
(NAM). Thus see 1500 J/KG as reasonable along with 40 knots of 0-6
km bulk shear which is what models are showing. Limiting factor
will be weak mid level laps rates under 6.0 C/km due to warm
layer. For this reason, if low level moisture is less than models
show, CAPE aloft will be quite narrow and thin further limiting
severe weather potential. This all said, threat currently high
enough for SPC to upgrade areas from I-81 east to a slight risk
meaning scattered severe storms will be possible. The biggest
threats will be strong winds and small hail. Have some concerns
about heavy rain as well due to slow movement of front and high
PWATs near 1.5 inches so some areas could get a good soaking.
However dry antecedent conditions should limit Flash flood
potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
To start the period, slow moving cold front will be over S/E part
of the CWA where showers/storms will likely still be ongoing while
remaining areas across the Twin Tiers north and west will be
seeing activity come to an end in the front`s wake. These
showers/storms will exit west to east by the overnight with cooler
and drier air moving in as lows drop into the 50s.

Wednesday will be cool and dry compared to recent weather with a
mix of sun and clouds. Lingering trough could bring a few isolated
showers across central NY with otherwise dry weather with highs
mostly in the low to mid 70s. High pressure then builds in for
Wednesday night and Thursday with mainly clear skies. Lows will be
cool Wednesday night - upper 40s to mid 50s with highs Thursday in
the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
215 pm update... A progressive, fairly dry pattern overall, is
likely to continue this period.

An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front are
progged to impact the region Friday into Friday night. As such, we
have chance probabilities (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms.

Thereafter, it appears that we could have another extended stretch
of rain-free weather, with slowly building heights aloft, and
incoming surface high pressure.

Temperatures look fairly seasonable, with highs Friday mostly in
the 80s, dropping back a bit to the upper 70s-lower 80s for the
rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Complicated aviation forecast with a MVFR to IFR layer of low
clouds impacting the far southeast terminals this morning, dense
fog possible at KELM through daybreak, then convection by midday
most terminals.

Through daybreak, MVFR cigs at KAVP and MVFR to IFR cigs at KBGM
will continue. Some of these lower cigs may reach KRME but
confidence a bit lower here so I included just a TEMPO group. Fog
likely at KELM but it could be quite variable the next few hours,
bouncing from low end IFR to VFR. With a good shot at remaining
clear here however and fog already forming, below airport mins are
possible after 08Z. A return to VFR all terminals expectec between
12Z and 14Z.

Convection this afternoon occurs around 18Z, roughly along I-81
from near Binghamton and then moves south and east through 22Z.
With this scenario, highest confidence in thunderstorms will be at
KAVP, then KBGM. From KELM to KITH and KRME confidence much lower
as storms will fire near but perhaps just, just east of these
terminals. Here I went with smaller shorter TEMPO groups with the
duration expected to be over a smaller window. Drier weather by
tonight.

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.

Friday-Saturday...Although VFR expected much of the time, brief
restrictions with showers/thunderstorms are possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...BJT/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...Heden




000
FXUS61 KBGM 280555
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
155 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will be mainly dry but mild and muggy tonight ahead of a
cold front. This front will bring showers and storms to the area
Tuesday then be followed by cooler and drier weather for midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
900 pm update...
Rain showers tracked eastward across Oneida county earlier this
evening but have since moved east and dissipated. A weak boundary
situated N-S from the Finger Lakes southward into n-central PA has
started to wash out a bit and lift back to the north as a weak
push of moisture from the south begins to move in. Have dropped
all mention of showers and storms from the forecast for the rest
of tonight. Boundary layer has become stable enough to keep all
convective development on hold until later tomorrow morning.
There is still some uncertainty concerning the areal extent of
cloud cover expected tonight and tomorrow morning. The clouds will
have a significant event on temperatures tonight and
tomorrow...along with an impact on eventual convective potential
late tomorrow morning and into the early afternoon. More cloud
cover longer across the region will inhibit the amt of
instability...while less cloud cover will allow for stronger
destabilization and potentially stronger storms. Rest of the
forecast still on track.

Previous discussion...
Skies are beginning to clear west to east across the area in the
wake of an initial area of showers that is now located over far
S/E zones as of the mid afternoon. In the wake of this first
area, destabilization is occurring over Finger Lakes area into
Lake Plain as temperatures are warming with moist conditions in
the low levels. A cold front that will affect tomorrow is still
located upstream over southern Ontario with area in southerly
flow. For the late afternoon into early this evening, first area
of showers will continue to move east and exit S/E portions of the
CWA by this evening. Meanwhile, expect some isolated showers or
storms may form over remaining areas where clearing and
destabilization is occurring.

Mainly quiet weather for tonight as any showers/storms diminish
after sunset. Conditions will be mild and muggy in moist slot ahead
of cold front. Also, the abundant moisture in the lower levels
looks to result in low level stratus formation overnight
especially from NE PA into the southern tier. Lows will be mainly
in the mid 60s.

For Tuesday, severe weather threat looks a little higher based on
the latest suite of model guidance. Early in the day, slow moving
cold front will be near west edge of the CWA and will slowly
advance east. Low stratus should mix out through the morning and
allow for enough destabilization for showers and thunderstorms to
fire along and just east of the front around midday into the early
afternoon (15-18z). This should occur near or just west of the
I-81 corridor. Latest model guidance indicates ML CAPES by this
time of around 700-900 J/kG (GFS) to as high as 2000-2500 J/KG
(NAM). Thus see 1500 J/KG as reasonable along with 40 knots of 0-6
km bulk shear which is what models are showing. Limiting factor
will be weak mid level laps rates under 6.0 C/km due to warm
layer. For this reason, if low level moisture is less than models
show, CAPE aloft will be quite narrow and thin further limiting
severe weather potential. This all said, threat currently high
enough for SPC to upgrade areas from I-81 east to a slight risk
meaning scattered severe storms will be possible. The biggest
threats will be strong winds and small hail. Have some concerns
about heavy rain as well due to slow movement of front and high
PWATs near 1.5 inches so some areas could get a good soaking.
However dry antecedent conditions should limit Flash flood
potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
To start the period, slow moving cold front will be over S/E part
of the CWA where showers/storms will likely still be ongoing while
remaining areas across the Twin Tiers north and west will be
seeing activity come to an end in the front`s wake. These
showers/storms will exit west to east by the overnight with cooler
and drier air moving in as lows drop into the 50s.

Wednesday will be cool and dry compared to recent weather with a
mix of sun and clouds. Lingering trough could bring a few isolated
showers across central NY with otherwise dry weather with highs
mostly in the low to mid 70s. High pressure then builds in for
Wednesday night and Thursday with mainly clear skies. Lows will be
cool Wednesday night - upper 40s to mid 50s with highs Thursday in
the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
215 pm update... A progressive, fairly dry pattern overall, is
likely to continue this period.

An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front are
progged to impact the region Friday into Friday night. As such, we
have chance probabilities (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms.

Thereafter, it appears that we could have another extended stretch
of rain-free weather, with slowly building heights aloft, and
incoming surface high pressure.

Temperatures look fairly seasonable, with highs Friday mostly in
the 80s, dropping back a bit to the upper 70s-lower 80s for the
rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Complicated aviation forecast with a MVFR to IFR layer of low
clouds impacting the far southeast terminals this morning, dense
fog possible at KELM through daybreak, then convection by midday
most terminals.

Through daybreak, MVFR cigs at KAVP and MVFR to IFR cigs at KBGM
will continue. Some of these lower cigs may reach KRME but
confidence a bit lower here so I included just a TEMPO group. Fog
likely at KELM but it could be quite variable the next few hours,
bouncing from low end IFR to VFR. With a good shot at remaining
clear here however and fog already forming, below airport mins are
possible after 08Z. A return to VFR all terminals expectec between
12Z and 14Z.

Convection this afternoon occurs around 18Z, roughly along I-81
from near Binghamton and then moves south and east through 22Z.
With this scenario, highest confidence in thunderstorms will be at
KAVP, then KBGM. From KELM to KITH and KRME confidence much lower
as storms will fire near but perhaps just, just east of these
terminals. Here I went with smaller shorter TEMPO groups with the
duration expected to be over a smaller window. Drier weather by
tonight.

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.

Friday-Saturday...Although VFR expected much of the time, brief
restrictions with showers/thunderstorms are possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...BJT/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...Heden




000
FXUS61 KALY 280551
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
151 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak warm front will exit New England overnight. A cold front
move through our region Tuesday afternoon and night. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure
will build east from the Midwest Wednesday, and bring dry weather
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1254 AM EDT...Main change with this update was to raise
pops across a limited area of southeast Dutchess and much of
Litchfield county, as some slow moving showers will persist there
for the next few hours. Otherwise, the rest of the area should be
dry tonight due to limited forcing. Increased cloud cover as well,
as areas of stratus clouds have developed in parts of the region.
It will be a mild and muggy night with low temps and dewpoints in
the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper energy north of the Great Lakes and the associated cold
front making steady progress east and an axis of instability ahead
of the cold front. Some sun is expected at least in western areas
Tuesday morning...and how far east sees some sun depends on how
the band of clouds over us evolves through the night. Once we
reach convective temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s...most
areas should see more clouds than sun by midday...with showers and
thunderstorms developing over central NY..then tracking through
eastern NY and Western New England in the afternoon through the
evening.

There is a good consensus in guidance that an axis of decent
instability sets up ahead of the cold front...mainly due to
relatively high surface dew points and not so much due to hot
surface temperatures. However...the high dew points over the Great
Lakes to western New York at model initialization time this
morning have mixed out to lower levels this afternoon.
So...surface dew points tomorrow will have a big influence on
severe weather potential...and will make the difference between
700-1000 j/kg CAPES and 1000-2000 j/kg CAPES.

There is a slight risk of severe weather...and as long as dew
points rise and translate into decent instability...initial
thunderstorm updrafts will pulse up strongly...with potential
marginal severe hail and winds. As thunderstorms track east...new
updrafts will again pulse up from time to time with the potential
for brief scattered marginally severe hail and winds.

The low level shear and upper jet/upper dynamics are relatively
weak but there is a decent boundary layer thermal gradient along
the cold front for some frontogenetic convergence. So...putting
the possibility for small hail and gusty winds into the forecast
Tuesday afternoon and evening. There could be some locally heavy
rain...with the relatively weak steering flow...if storms can
train. It has been a bit dry in our region...so any flash flood
threat is very low but will just have to keep an eye out for
training thunderstorms for some localized nuisance ponding of
water in some areas. Highs Tuesday in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Lingering shower activity Tuesday night as winds shift to west and
northwest and by daybreak Wednesday...any isolated showers should
be over eastern NY and New England. The isolated showers supported
by lagging upper energy should exit through the afternoon...with
improving sky cover through the day in all areas. Highs Wednesday
in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Much more sun and dryer weather
Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 80s...but mid to upper
70s in higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected through the early morning mainly
due to ceilings. These conditions are expected to improve to VFR
after sunrise as the atmosphere mixes. Convection will develop
across the area impacting the TAFs sites this afternoon into the
evening as cold front approaches and gradually crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection should initiated by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours into
the evening. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and
this will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew
points in the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The
primary threat will be strong to damaging winds gusts.

Widespread MVFR condition are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection.

Overall winds will be southerly through the TAF period; 06Z/Wednesday.
At KALB, gusts into the teens are expected during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night-Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

RH will then increase to between 80 and 100 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Tuesday will be around 50 to 65
percent...then near 100 percent with scattered thunderstorms later
Tuesday afternoon evening. Minimum RH values on Wednesday around
45 to 60 percent.

Southerly winds will be 15 mph or less tonight. Winds on Tuesday
will be south-southwest at 15 mph or less. Winds will shift to
west and northwest by Wednesday at around 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There will be showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Rainfall totals could
reach one third to three quarters of an inch, with some isolated
higher amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light rainfall amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Snyder/JPV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 280551
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
151 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak warm front will exit New England overnight. A cold front
move through our region Tuesday afternoon and night. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure
will build east from the Midwest Wednesday, and bring dry weather
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1254 AM EDT...Main change with this update was to raise
pops across a limited area of southeast Dutchess and much of
Litchfield county, as some slow moving showers will persist there
for the next few hours. Otherwise, the rest of the area should be
dry tonight due to limited forcing. Increased cloud cover as well,
as areas of stratus clouds have developed in parts of the region.
It will be a mild and muggy night with low temps and dewpoints in
the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper energy north of the Great Lakes and the associated cold
front making steady progress east and an axis of instability ahead
of the cold front. Some sun is expected at least in western areas
Tuesday morning...and how far east sees some sun depends on how
the band of clouds over us evolves through the night. Once we
reach convective temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s...most
areas should see more clouds than sun by midday...with showers and
thunderstorms developing over central NY..then tracking through
eastern NY and Western New England in the afternoon through the
evening.

There is a good consensus in guidance that an axis of decent
instability sets up ahead of the cold front...mainly due to
relatively high surface dew points and not so much due to hot
surface temperatures. However...the high dew points over the Great
Lakes to western New York at model initialization time this
morning have mixed out to lower levels this afternoon.
So...surface dew points tomorrow will have a big influence on
severe weather potential...and will make the difference between
700-1000 j/kg CAPES and 1000-2000 j/kg CAPES.

There is a slight risk of severe weather...and as long as dew
points rise and translate into decent instability...initial
thunderstorm updrafts will pulse up strongly...with potential
marginal severe hail and winds. As thunderstorms track east...new
updrafts will again pulse up from time to time with the potential
for brief scattered marginally severe hail and winds.

The low level shear and upper jet/upper dynamics are relatively
weak but there is a decent boundary layer thermal gradient along
the cold front for some frontogenetic convergence. So...putting
the possibility for small hail and gusty winds into the forecast
Tuesday afternoon and evening. There could be some locally heavy
rain...with the relatively weak steering flow...if storms can
train. It has been a bit dry in our region...so any flash flood
threat is very low but will just have to keep an eye out for
training thunderstorms for some localized nuisance ponding of
water in some areas. Highs Tuesday in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Lingering shower activity Tuesday night as winds shift to west and
northwest and by daybreak Wednesday...any isolated showers should
be over eastern NY and New England. The isolated showers supported
by lagging upper energy should exit through the afternoon...with
improving sky cover through the day in all areas. Highs Wednesday
in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Much more sun and dryer weather
Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 80s...but mid to upper
70s in higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR-IFR conditions are expected through the early morning mainly
due to ceilings. These conditions are expected to improve to VFR
after sunrise as the atmosphere mixes. Convection will develop
across the area impacting the TAFs sites this afternoon into the
evening as cold front approaches and gradually crosses the area.

Guidance indicates convection should initiated by afternoon across
the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with the storms
moving eastward across the area through the afternoon hours into
the evening. Have included a TEMPO group for thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions in each TAF. Brief IFR conditions can be expected
with the some storms but don`t have the confidence for timing to
include in TAFs. Some of the thunderstorms may become strong to
severe. Aloft an approaching short-wave will be rotating through
the base of the upper trough as the cold front approaches and
this will occur during the peak heating of the day. With dew
points in the 60s the airmass will become quite unstable. The
primary threat will be strong to damaging winds gusts.

Widespread MVFR condition are expected to develop for the overnight
in the wake of the convection.

Overall winds will be southerly through the TAF period; 06Z/Wednesday.
At KALB, gusts into the teens are expected during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night-Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

RH will then increase to between 80 and 100 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Tuesday will be around 50 to 65
percent...then near 100 percent with scattered thunderstorms later
Tuesday afternoon evening. Minimum RH values on Wednesday around
45 to 60 percent.

Southerly winds will be 15 mph or less tonight. Winds on Tuesday
will be south-southwest at 15 mph or less. Winds will shift to
west and northwest by Wednesday at around 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There will be showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Rainfall totals could
reach one third to three quarters of an inch, with some isolated
higher amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light rainfall amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Snyder/JPV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280542
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
142 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough moves across the region tonight. A cold front
approaches Tuesday and moves into the area Tuesday night, and
through the area Wednesday. The front moves farther offshore
Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through
Friday. Another cold front then approaches and passes through late
Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the
front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A band of light to moderate rain across the NYC Metro will move
very slowly east and expand eastward based on near term forecast
model trends.

Amounts up to 1/3 of an inch have already occurred in Linden NJ with
hourly maximum rates approaching 1/4 inch.

With abundant low level moisture in place and increasing low
level convergence and weak instability, the POPs were increased to
likely across the region with QPF ranging from 1/4 to 1/2 inch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The longwave upper trough continues to dig into the eastern states
Tuesday and Tuesday night with additional energy rotating through
the trough. By 12Z Wednesday the trough axis still remains to the
west, through the eastern Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley.
Gulf of Mexico moisture is drawn up into the area through the
period with increasing low and mid level moisture. A more stable
marine layer remains in place and will limit the threat of
thunderstorms. However, inland instability increases Tuesday
afternoon and into the evening. Cape will be limited, however, a
few stronger thunderstorms will be possible, especially across the
lower Hudson Valley. The storm prediction center has a slight risk
area into portions of Orange county, but will not mention any
enhanced wording at this time as the better chances for the
stronger storms will be to the west.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front will likely be over the eastern zones Wednesday
morning. It will slowly push offshore through the day as it
dissipates. Its eastward progression could be slowed down by a weak
wave of low pressure attempting to form along the front. Thinking is
that chances of showers and thunderstorms will be primarily over the
eastern zones during the morning. Then in the afternoon and early
evening, PVA and destabilization could bring a shower or storm to
the rest of the forecast area.

High pressure brings dry weather on Thursday and Thursday night. For
Friday, a pre-frontal trough brings low chances of showers and
storms. The trailing cold front moves in Friday night, when
overall better chances occur.

It appears that this cold front will be slow to push offshore, so
low chances of showers and storms have been left in for eastern
sections Saturday morning. The front eventually sags to the south as
the upper flow aloft becomes more cyclonic Saturday night into
Sunday. ECMWF, which has been a northern outlier with a wave of low
pressure forming along the front, has trended farther south/drier
with this feature and associated precipitation. Will still leave in a
slight chance for the southern zones for this period until
confidence in dry weather increases further. High pressure otherwise
builds in from the northwest on Monday with dry conditions.

Temperatures through the long term period will be generally near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak trough of low pressure will pass through the region through
the early morning hours. A cold front then approaches later today
and passes through the region late tonight through Wednesday
morning.

S/SE winds 5-10 KT will increase to 10-15 KT later today. If
breaks of sunshine develop, winds for coastal terminals could be
around 5 kt stronger than forecast, with gusts 20 to 25 kt.

MVFR/IFR conditions in rain/fog for the early morning hours. Rain
shield slowly working its way through KNYC terminals, and them
more showers develop towards daybreak.

Widespread fog/stratus likely on tap for most areas through the
afternoon with IFR/MVFR conditions.

Cold front approaches late in the day. SHRA/TSRA will develop
north and west of KNYC terminals and track east. Will carry PROB30
groups for KNYC and interior terminals. Not confident enough in
TSRA development for LI/SE CT.

Widespread fog/stratus will develop late tonight with IFR
conditions.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Tonight...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions
likely in showers/isolated tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions
possible via morning fog/low clouds and showers/isolated tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak surface trough moves through the waters tonight with the
chance of scattered showers. A cold front approaches Tuesday and
moves into the waters Tuesday night and east Wednesday. Southerly
winds will precede the cold frontal passage and occasional gusts
on the ocean waters may approach small craft levels into early
this evening and Tuesday, especially west of Fire Island Inlet.
Otherwise winds and seas will remain below advisory levels tonight
through Tuesday night.

The pressure gradient is expected to remain rather weak through the
rest of the forecast period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280519
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
119 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After a warm and muggy night, a slow moving cold front will move
into the North Country on Tuesday, with widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity expected. The strongest storms will develop from
the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks eastward across Vermont,
with some potentially producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
small hail. Scattered showers linger into Wednesday as an upper
trough swings through, but the end of the work week will see a
return of warm and dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 119 AM EDT Tuesday...No significant changes to the
forecast, though did increase sky cover for a few hours in
southeast VT as low-level southerly flow has helped advect in some
of the lower stratus evident over southern New England. Think this
should generally be temporary however. Surface analysis shows cold
front/trough in the Ottawa Valley, which will be of little
consequence this evening but of greater impact for the Tuesday
forecast. Otherwise rest of the forecast remains on track for a
generally mild evening with lows mid 60s to around 70.

Moving on to Tuesday the forecast remains on track for a busy
afternoon across the North Country with the aforementioned cold
front shifting into the region producing widespread showers and
thunderstorms. We continue to monitor the threat for stronger
storms to develop with several ingredients coming together to
support the idea of some becoming severe along with the potential
for localized flash flooding. Timing is as such that the front
enters into the St. Lawrence Valley mid-morning, with convection
firing out ahead across the northern Adirondacks around 16-18z,
and slowly progressing eastward into the Champlain Valley 18-20z,
and eastern Vermont thereafter. For severe potential, there`s not
one single ingredient that sticks out over another, with modest
MUCAPEs of 1500-2500 J/kg, 0-3km bulk shear around 30kts, and
0-6km shear 40-50kts, but low level moisture will be abundant with
dewpoints well into the 60`s and with increasing mid-level
southwesterlies we`ll likely see a few stronger storms possibly
producing localized damaging winds. Of more concern though is the
threat for some localized flash flooding as a plume of enhanced
PWATs interacts with the boundary and the low/mid level flow
parallels the front supporting some training of storms. We`ll
touch on this more in an upcoming hydro section this afternoon, as
well as in the short term period. Stay tuned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...no huge changes in the forecast. at the
start of tuesday evening, we should have a line of convection
(likely focused across Vermont) that will be pushing slowly east.
looks like a threat for locally heavy rain will continue until
about midnight. model guidance indicates a shortwave that will
move into the region during the early evening. thinking this will
help to increase the coverage of convection. add in some "cell
training", some locally heavy rain is a distinct possibility. see
the hydro section below for a few more details.

wednesday will be quieter than tuesday, however a few showers
across the north are possible. a stronger shortwave will zip
across the region during the day, however low level moisture is
quite limited (precipitable water values well below 1"). will
probably see a few showers develop across the higher terrain, thus
have painted in some 30-40% pops. limited instability, so not
looking for any thunderstorms.

wednesday night will be quiet as weak high pressure starts to
build in. i suppose we could see some areas of river valley fog.

stuck with model guidance blends for temperatures. should average
out close to normal for this time of year. lots of 70s to around
80f for wednesday. generally 50s/close to 60f for overnight lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...initial glance at the upcoming July 4TH
Holiday Weekend indicates pretty decent weather for all the
outdoor activities planned. i think most everyone will be pleased
with that tidbit of information!

12z guidance (GFS & ECMWF) are in relatively good agreement, so
the featured forecast is basically a blend of what we`ve had
previously along with the newest data. some comments on each day:

thursday: should be a fine day with near normal temperatures and
relatively low humidity thanks to high pressure overhead.

friday: upper trough will be moving into the region during the
day. most of the energy is far to our north, but we`ll have
marginal instability and moisture around to trigger a few showers
and t-storms.

saturday: cyclonic flow along with slightly cool temperatures
aloft combined with daytime heating should result in a few
showers, mainly across higher terrain. however for the vast
majority of the region the vast majority of the time it will be
dry with partly sunny skies. temperatures a little below normal,
but still quite comfy.

sunday: looking similar to saturday. a little less low level
moisture, so any showers will be lighter and harder to find. have
only 15-20% chance of rain for the higher terrain. temperatures
will again be just a few degrees below normal, but still comfy.
another "get outside and enjoy it" kind of day.

Monday July 4th: see above.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Some MVFR stratus has advected in
southeast flow at RUT but otherwise VFR conditions across the
terminals. Expect the stratus at RUT to be generally short-lived
as low-level flow becomes more southerly. Fog isn`t likely as
winds will be strong enough to preclude. Winds south 7-12 kts
through rest of overnight.

Much more active weather then develops as heavy showers and
thunderstorms develop along a cold front starting around 16z
Tuesday at SLK and then advancing slowly eastward into PBG and
the VT terminals after 18z. Some storms may become strong to
severe during this timeframe, producing gusty winds and associated
turbulence, lightning and brief cig/visby reductions into the
MVFR/IFR category. Weakening trend expected around 01z. Winds
south 6-8 kts then becoming west to northwest 3-6 kts late in the
TAF period.

Outlook 06z Wednesday through Saturday...

06z Wednesday through 12z Wednesday...Weakening showers/storms
produce brief MVFR conditions especially for RUT and MPV but
generally VFR elsewhere.

12z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Generally VFR, possible brief
MVFR in diurnal showers.

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with IFR/LIFR radiational
fog at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

Saturday onward...VFR/MVFR with chances for scattered showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
as of 325 pm monday... 12z guidance suite showing some signals
for localized heavy rain tuesday afternoon and evening, primarily
across vermont. with a deep southwest flow forecast to be in
place, the showers/t-storms that will develop won`t make fast
progress to the east. rather, the individual convective cells will
be moving from southwest to northeast within the slow moving line,
and this sets up the possibility for "training" (eg: one after the
other) cells. this type of situation can result in narrow stripes
of heavier precipitation footprints. precipitable water values
will peak somewhere in the order of 1.5 to 1.7", primarily across
vermont. these values aren`t excessive, but indicative of a fairly
moist atmosphere. adding to the ingredient list, models indicate a
short wave will be pushing into the area during the evening. the
NAM and GFS both indicate a blossoming of activity across vermont
between 00z-03z. raw QPF from some of the hi-res models indicate
some spot totals in excess of 1" in an hour or two. flash flood
guidance (FFG) is fairly high, given the relative dryness of late.
but that does not mean we can`t have flooding. 1 hour FFG is
roughly 1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is 2.3-3.0". It might be hard to
see that amount of rain in just 1 hour, but if we`ve got a slow
moving line with repeated cells moving across an area for 3 hours,
that 3 hour FFG is not too hard to achieve. Any flooding would be
localized to small basins. Not expecting enough widespread heavy
rain to have any significant impact on river levels.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Loconto
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Nash




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280519
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
119 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After a warm and muggy night, a slow moving cold front will move
into the North Country on Tuesday, with widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity expected. The strongest storms will develop from
the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks eastward across Vermont,
with some potentially producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
small hail. Scattered showers linger into Wednesday as an upper
trough swings through, but the end of the work week will see a
return of warm and dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 119 AM EDT Tuesday...No significant changes to the
forecast, though did increase sky cover for a few hours in
southeast VT as low-level southerly flow has helped advect in some
of the lower stratus evident over southern New England. Think this
should generally be temporary however. Surface analysis shows cold
front/trough in the Ottawa Valley, which will be of little
consequence this evening but of greater impact for the Tuesday
forecast. Otherwise rest of the forecast remains on track for a
generally mild evening with lows mid 60s to around 70.

Moving on to Tuesday the forecast remains on track for a busy
afternoon across the North Country with the aforementioned cold
front shifting into the region producing widespread showers and
thunderstorms. We continue to monitor the threat for stronger
storms to develop with several ingredients coming together to
support the idea of some becoming severe along with the potential
for localized flash flooding. Timing is as such that the front
enters into the St. Lawrence Valley mid-morning, with convection
firing out ahead across the northern Adirondacks around 16-18z,
and slowly progressing eastward into the Champlain Valley 18-20z,
and eastern Vermont thereafter. For severe potential, there`s not
one single ingredient that sticks out over another, with modest
MUCAPEs of 1500-2500 J/kg, 0-3km bulk shear around 30kts, and
0-6km shear 40-50kts, but low level moisture will be abundant with
dewpoints well into the 60`s and with increasing mid-level
southwesterlies we`ll likely see a few stronger storms possibly
producing localized damaging winds. Of more concern though is the
threat for some localized flash flooding as a plume of enhanced
PWATs interacts with the boundary and the low/mid level flow
parallels the front supporting some training of storms. We`ll
touch on this more in an upcoming hydro section this afternoon, as
well as in the short term period. Stay tuned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...no huge changes in the forecast. at the
start of tuesday evening, we should have a line of convection
(likely focused across Vermont) that will be pushing slowly east.
looks like a threat for locally heavy rain will continue until
about midnight. model guidance indicates a shortwave that will
move into the region during the early evening. thinking this will
help to increase the coverage of convection. add in some "cell
training", some locally heavy rain is a distinct possibility. see
the hydro section below for a few more details.

wednesday will be quieter than tuesday, however a few showers
across the north are possible. a stronger shortwave will zip
across the region during the day, however low level moisture is
quite limited (precipitable water values well below 1"). will
probably see a few showers develop across the higher terrain, thus
have painted in some 30-40% pops. limited instability, so not
looking for any thunderstorms.

wednesday night will be quiet as weak high pressure starts to
build in. i suppose we could see some areas of river valley fog.

stuck with model guidance blends for temperatures. should average
out close to normal for this time of year. lots of 70s to around
80f for wednesday. generally 50s/close to 60f for overnight lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...initial glance at the upcoming July 4TH
Holiday Weekend indicates pretty decent weather for all the
outdoor activities planned. i think most everyone will be pleased
with that tidbit of information!

12z guidance (GFS & ECMWF) are in relatively good agreement, so
the featured forecast is basically a blend of what we`ve had
previously along with the newest data. some comments on each day:

thursday: should be a fine day with near normal temperatures and
relatively low humidity thanks to high pressure overhead.

friday: upper trough will be moving into the region during the
day. most of the energy is far to our north, but we`ll have
marginal instability and moisture around to trigger a few showers
and t-storms.

saturday: cyclonic flow along with slightly cool temperatures
aloft combined with daytime heating should result in a few
showers, mainly across higher terrain. however for the vast
majority of the region the vast majority of the time it will be
dry with partly sunny skies. temperatures a little below normal,
but still quite comfy.

sunday: looking similar to saturday. a little less low level
moisture, so any showers will be lighter and harder to find. have
only 15-20% chance of rain for the higher terrain. temperatures
will again be just a few degrees below normal, but still comfy.
another "get outside and enjoy it" kind of day.

Monday July 4th: see above.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Some MVFR stratus has advected in
southeast flow at RUT but otherwise VFR conditions across the
terminals. Expect the stratus at RUT to be generally short-lived
as low-level flow becomes more southerly. Fog isn`t likely as
winds will be strong enough to preclude. Winds south 7-12 kts
through rest of overnight.

Much more active weather then develops as heavy showers and
thunderstorms develop along a cold front starting around 16z
Tuesday at SLK and then advancing slowly eastward into PBG and
the VT terminals after 18z. Some storms may become strong to
severe during this timeframe, producing gusty winds and associated
turbulence, lightning and brief cig/visby reductions into the
MVFR/IFR category. Weakening trend expected around 01z. Winds
south 6-8 kts then becoming west to northwest 3-6 kts late in the
TAF period.

Outlook 06z Wednesday through Saturday...

06z Wednesday through 12z Wednesday...Weakening showers/storms
produce brief MVFR conditions especially for RUT and MPV but
generally VFR elsewhere.

12z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Generally VFR, possible brief
MVFR in diurnal showers.

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with IFR/LIFR radiational
fog at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

Saturday onward...VFR/MVFR with chances for scattered showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
as of 325 pm monday... 12z guidance suite showing some signals
for localized heavy rain tuesday afternoon and evening, primarily
across vermont. with a deep southwest flow forecast to be in
place, the showers/t-storms that will develop won`t make fast
progress to the east. rather, the individual convective cells will
be moving from southwest to northeast within the slow moving line,
and this sets up the possibility for "training" (eg: one after the
other) cells. this type of situation can result in narrow stripes
of heavier precipitation footprints. precipitable water values
will peak somewhere in the order of 1.5 to 1.7", primarily across
vermont. these values aren`t excessive, but indicative of a fairly
moist atmosphere. adding to the ingredient list, models indicate a
short wave will be pushing into the area during the evening. the
NAM and GFS both indicate a blossoming of activity across vermont
between 00z-03z. raw QPF from some of the hi-res models indicate
some spot totals in excess of 1" in an hour or two. flash flood
guidance (FFG) is fairly high, given the relative dryness of late.
but that does not mean we can`t have flooding. 1 hour FFG is
roughly 1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is 2.3-3.0". It might be hard to
see that amount of rain in just 1 hour, but if we`ve got a slow
moving line with repeated cells moving across an area for 3 hours,
that 3 hour FFG is not too hard to achieve. Any flooding would be
localized to small basins. Not expecting enough widespread heavy
rain to have any significant impact on river levels.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Loconto
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Nash




000
FXUS61 KALY 280454
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1254 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak warm front will exit New England overnight. A cold front
move through our region Tuesday afternoon and night. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure
will build east from the Midwest Wednesday, and bring dry weather
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1254 AM EDT...Main change with this update was to raise
pops across a limited area of southeast Dutchess and much of
Litchfield county, as some slow moving showers will persist there
for the next few hours. Otherwise, the rest of the area should be
dry tonight due to limited forcing. Increased cloud cover as well,
as areas of stratus clouds have developed in parts of the region.
It will be a mild and muggy night with low temps and dewpoints in
the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper energy north of the Great Lakes and the associated cold
front making steady progress east and an axis of instability ahead
of the cold front. Some sun is expected at least in western areas
Tuesday morning...and how far east sees some sun depends on how
the band of clouds over us evolves through the night. Once we
reach convective temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s...most
areas should see more clouds than sun by midday...with showers and
thunderstorms developing over central NY..then tracking through
eastern NY and Western New England in the afternoon through the
evening.

There is a good consensus in guidance that an axis of decent
instability sets up ahead of the cold front...mainly due to
relatively high surface dew points and not so much due to hot
surface temperatures. However...the high dew points over the Great
Lakes to western New York at model initialization time this
morning have mixed out to lower levels this afternoon.
So...surface dew points tomorrow will have a big influence on
severe weather potential...and will make the difference between
700-1000 j/kg CAPES and 1000-2000 j/kg CAPES.

There is a slight risk of severe weather...and as long as dew
points rise and translate into decent instability...initial
thunderstorm updrafts will pulse up strongly...with potential
marginal severe hail and winds. As thunderstorms track east...new
updrafts will again pulse up from time to time with the potential
for brief scattered marginally severe hail and winds.

The low level shear and upper jet/upper dynamics are relatively
weak but there is a decent boundary layer thermal gradient along
the cold front for some frontogenetic convergence. So...putting
the possibility for small hail and gusty winds into the forecast
Tuesday afternoon and evening. There could be some locally heavy
rain...with the relatively weak steering flow...if storms can
train. It has been a bit dry in our region...so any flash flood
threat is very low but will just have to keep an eye out for
training thunderstorms for some localized nuisance ponding of
water in some areas. Highs Tuesday in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Lingering shower activity Tuesday night as winds shift to west and
northwest and by daybreak Wednesday...any isolated showers should
be over eastern NY and New England. The isolated showers supported
by lagging upper energy should exit through the afternoon...with
improving sky cover through the day in all areas. Highs Wednesday
in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Much more sun and dryer weather
Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 80s...but mid to upper
70s in higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers have exited the region as the wmfnt that triggered them
is from Vt into the Catskills. Overnight, combination of rainfall
earlier along with incrg surface dewpoints into the 60s will lead
toward lower CIGS and VIS well into MVFR flight categories. Where breaks
in the clouds occur this evening and winds decouple, IFR conditions
will be possible with fog and/or low stratus.

Winds will generally be from the southerly direction 5 to 10 KTS
overnight in most areas.

Tuesday morning low clouds and fog will dissipate with conds bcmg
VFR in most areas with sct-bkn cu. Hwvr an approaching cdfnt will
trigger shra and tstms some of which could become quite strong in
the afternoon with MVFR conds. SPC has placed the area in a slight
risk of Severe thunderstorms Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

RH will then increase to between 80 and 100 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Tuesday will be around 50 to 65
percent...then near 100 percent with scattered thunderstorms later
Tuesday afternoon evening. Minimum RH values on Wednesday around
45 to 60 percent.

Southerly winds will be 15 mph or less tonight. Winds on Tuesday
will be south-southwest at 15 mph or less. Winds will shift to
west and northwest by Wednesday at around 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There will be showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Rainfall totals could
reach one third to three quarters of an inch, with some isolated
higher amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light rainfall amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Snyder/JPV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...Snyder
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280414
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1214 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough moves across the region tonight. A cold front
approaches Tuesday and moves into the area Tuesday night, and
through the area Wednesday. The front moves farther offshore
Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through
Friday. Another cold front then approaches and passes through late
Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the
front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A band of light to moderate rain across the NYC Metro will move
very slowly east and expand eastward based on near term forecast
model trends.

Amounts up to 1/3 of an inch have already occurred in Linden NJ with
hourly maximum rates approaching 1/4 inch.

With abundant low level moisture in place and increasing low
level convergence and weak instability, the POPs were increased to
likely across the region with QPF ranging from 1/4 to 1/2 inch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The longwave upper trough continues to dig into the eastern states
Tuesday and Tuesday night with additional energy rotating through
the trough. By 12Z Wednesday the trough axis still remains to the
west, through the eastern Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley.
Gulf of Mexico moisture is drawn up into the area through the
period with increasing low and mid level moisture. A more stable
marine layer remains in place and will limit the threat of
thunderstorms. However, inland instability increases Tuesday
afternoon and into the evening. Cape will be limited, however, a
few stronger thunderstorms will be possible, especially across the
lower Hudson Valley. The storm prediction center has a slight risk
area into portions of Orange county, but will not mention any
enhanced wording at this time as the better chances for the
stronger storms will be to the west.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front will likely be over the eastern zones Wednesday
morning. It will slowly push offshore through the day as it
dissipates. Its eastward progression could be slowed down by a weak
wave of low pressure attempting to form along the front. Thinking is
that chances of showers and thunderstorms will be primarily over the
eastern zones during the morning. Then in the afternoon and early
evening, PVA and destabilization could bring a shower or storm to
the rest of the forecast area.

High pressure brings dry weather on Thursday and Thursday night. For
Friday, a pre-frontal trough brings low chances of showers and
storms. The trailing cold front moves in Friday night, when
overall better chances occur.

It appears that this cold front will be slow to push offshore, so
low chances of showers and storms have been left in for eastern
sections Saturday morning. The front eventually sags to the south as
the upper flow aloft becomes more cyclonic Saturday night into
Sunday. ECMWF, which has been a northern outlier with a wave of low
pressure forming along the front, has trended farther south/drier
with this feature and associated precipitation. Will still leave in a
slight chance for the southern zones for this period until
confidence in dry weather increases further. High pressure otherwise
builds in from the northwest on Monday with dry conditions.

Temperatures through the long term period will be generally near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak low pressure trough will approach tonight, then a cold
front will approach on Tuesday...crossing Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

S/SE winds weaken to around 5 to 10 kt overnight...increasing to
10 to 15 kt Tue afternoon. If breaks of sunshine develop winds for
coastal terminals could be around 5 kt stronger than
forecast...with gusts 20 to 25 kt.

Sct to Bkn mvfr cigs developing under weakening rain band across
NYC/NJ metro terminals late this evening. Latest trend is for
MVFR/IFR cigs to develop more gradually overnight into early Tue
morning. Although dewpoints are creeping well into the 60s...with
no signs of upstream stratus development...have nudged timing of
stratus development a few hours slower. Highest likelihood for
IFR development across eastern terminals.

On Tuesday...IFR likely...possibly LIFR...across eastern
terminals through the day. Potential for KJFK/KLGA/KHPN to remain
IFR for much if not all day. For terminals to the north/west of
NYC...improvement to mvfr likely in the afternoon. Some breaks of
vfr possible across NYC metro and north and west terminals in the
afternoon.

Low chance of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon/evening for
NYC/NJ metro terminals and terminals to the north/west.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Tuesday night...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals)
conditions likely in showers/isolated tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions
possible via morning fog/low clouds and showers/isolated tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak surface trough moves through the waters tonight with the
chance of scattered showers. A cold front approaches Tuesday and
moves into the waters Tuesday night and east Wednesday. Southerly
winds will precede the cold frontal passage and occasional gusts
on the ocean waters may approach small craft levels into early
this evening and Tuesday, especially west of Fire Island Inlet.
Otherwise winds and seas will remain below advisory levels tonight
through Tuesday night.

The pressure gradient is expected to remain rather weak through the
rest of the forecast period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280311
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1111 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough moves across the region tonight. A cold front
approaches Tuesday and moves into the area Tuesday night, and
through the area Wednesday. The front moves farther offshore
Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through
Friday. Another cold front then approaches and passes through late
Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the
front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Showers continue to fall as of 9 pm across approximately the
western half of the county warning area. The rain had tapered off
however across most of Orange county. The 18Z models do show the
rain chances continuing and even slowly expanding eastward
overnight. With this scenario being supported by the current radar
data, the forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The longwave upper trough continues to dig into the eastern states
Tuesday and Tuesday night with additional energy rotating through
the trough. By 12Z Wednesday the trough axis still remains to the
west, through the eastern Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley.
Gulf of Mexico moisture is drawn up into the area through the
period with increasing low and mid level moisture. A more stable
marine layer remains in place and will limit the threat of
thunderstorms. However, inland instability increases Tuesday
afternoon and into the evening. Cape will be limited, however, a
few stronger thunderstorms will be possible, especially across the
lower Hudson Valley. The storm prediction center has a slight risk
area into portions of Orange county, but will not mention any
enhanced wording at this time as the better chances for the
stronger storms will be to the west.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front will likely be over the eastern zones Wednesday
morning. It will slowly push offshore through the day as it
dissipates. Its eastward progression could be slowed down by a weak
wave of low pressure attempting to form along the front. Thinking is
that chances of showers and thunderstorms will be primarily over the
eastern zones during the morning. Then in the afternoon and early
evening, PVA and destabilization could bring a shower or storm to
the rest of the forecast area.

High pressure brings dry weather on Thursday and Thursday night. For
Friday, a pre-frontal trough brings low chances of showers and
storms. The trailing cold front moves in Friday night, when
overall better chances occur.

It appears that this cold front will be slow to push offshore, so
low chances of showers and storms have been left in for eastern
sections Saturday morning. The front eventually sags to the south as
the upper flow aloft becomes more cyclonic Saturday night into
Sunday. ECMWF, which has been a northern outlier with a wave of low
pressure forming along the front, has trended farther south/drier
with this feature and associated precipitation. Will still leave in a
slight chance for the southern zones for this period until
confidence in dry weather increases further. High pressure otherwise
builds in from the northwest on Monday with dry conditions.

Temperatures through the long term period will be generally near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak low pressure trough will approach tonight, then a cold
front will approach on Tuesday...crossing Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

S/SE winds weaken to around 5 to 10 kt overnight...increasing to
10 to 15 kt Tue afternoon. If breaks of sunshine develop winds for
coastal terminals could be around 5 kt stronger than
forecast...with gusts 20 to 25 kt.

Sct to Bkn mvfr cigs developing under weakening rain band across
NYC/NJ metro terminals late this evening. Latest trend is for
MVFR/IFR cigs to develop more gradually overnight into early Tue
morning. Although dewpoints are creeping well into the 60s...with
no signs of upstream stratus development...have nudged timing of
stratus development a few hours slower. Highest likelihood for
IFR development across eastern terminals.

On Tuesday...IFR likely...possibly LIFR...across eastern
terminals through the day. Potential for KJFK/KLGA/KHPN to remain
IFR for much if not all day. For terminals to the north/west of
NYC...improvement to mvfr likely in the afternoon. Some breaks of
vfr possible across NYC metro and north and west terminals in the
afternoon.

Low chance of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon/evening for
NYC/NJ metro terminals and terminals to the north/west.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Tuesday night...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals)
conditions likely in showers/isolated tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions
possible via morning fog/low clouds and showers/isolated tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak surface trough moves through the waters tonight with the
chance of scattered showers. A cold front approaches Tuesday and
moves into the waters Tuesday night and east Wednesday. Southerly
winds will precede the cold frontal passage and occasional gusts
on the ocean waters may approach small craft levels into early
this evening and Tuesday, especially west of Fire Island Inlet.
Otherwise winds and seas will remain below advisory levels tonight
through Tuesday night.

The pressure gradient is expected to remain rather weak through the
rest of the forecast period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280311
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1111 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough moves across the region tonight. A cold front
approaches Tuesday and moves into the area Tuesday night, and
through the area Wednesday. The front moves farther offshore
Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through
Friday. Another cold front then approaches and passes through late
Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the
front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Showers continue to fall as of 9 pm across approximately the
western half of the county warning area. The rain had tapered off
however across most of Orange county. The 18Z models do show the
rain chances continuing and even slowly expanding eastward
overnight. With this scenario being supported by the current radar
data, the forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The longwave upper trough continues to dig into the eastern states
Tuesday and Tuesday night with additional energy rotating through
the trough. By 12Z Wednesday the trough axis still remains to the
west, through the eastern Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley.
Gulf of Mexico moisture is drawn up into the area through the
period with increasing low and mid level moisture. A more stable
marine layer remains in place and will limit the threat of
thunderstorms. However, inland instability increases Tuesday
afternoon and into the evening. Cape will be limited, however, a
few stronger thunderstorms will be possible, especially across the
lower Hudson Valley. The storm prediction center has a slight risk
area into portions of Orange county, but will not mention any
enhanced wording at this time as the better chances for the
stronger storms will be to the west.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front will likely be over the eastern zones Wednesday
morning. It will slowly push offshore through the day as it
dissipates. Its eastward progression could be slowed down by a weak
wave of low pressure attempting to form along the front. Thinking is
that chances of showers and thunderstorms will be primarily over the
eastern zones during the morning. Then in the afternoon and early
evening, PVA and destabilization could bring a shower or storm to
the rest of the forecast area.

High pressure brings dry weather on Thursday and Thursday night. For
Friday, a pre-frontal trough brings low chances of showers and
storms. The trailing cold front moves in Friday night, when
overall better chances occur.

It appears that this cold front will be slow to push offshore, so
low chances of showers and storms have been left in for eastern
sections Saturday morning. The front eventually sags to the south as
the upper flow aloft becomes more cyclonic Saturday night into
Sunday. ECMWF, which has been a northern outlier with a wave of low
pressure forming along the front, has trended farther south/drier
with this feature and associated precipitation. Will still leave in a
slight chance for the southern zones for this period until
confidence in dry weather increases further. High pressure otherwise
builds in from the northwest on Monday with dry conditions.

Temperatures through the long term period will be generally near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak low pressure trough will approach tonight, then a cold
front will approach on Tuesday...crossing Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

S/SE winds weaken to around 5 to 10 kt overnight...increasing to
10 to 15 kt Tue afternoon. If breaks of sunshine develop winds for
coastal terminals could be around 5 kt stronger than
forecast...with gusts 20 to 25 kt.

Sct to Bkn mvfr cigs developing under weakening rain band across
NYC/NJ metro terminals late this evening. Latest trend is for
MVFR/IFR cigs to develop more gradually overnight into early Tue
morning. Although dewpoints are creeping well into the 60s...with
no signs of upstream stratus development...have nudged timing of
stratus development a few hours slower. Highest likelihood for
IFR development across eastern terminals.

On Tuesday...IFR likely...possibly LIFR...across eastern
terminals through the day. Potential for KJFK/KLGA/KHPN to remain
IFR for much if not all day. For terminals to the north/west of
NYC...improvement to mvfr likely in the afternoon. Some breaks of
vfr possible across NYC metro and north and west terminals in the
afternoon.

Low chance of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon/evening for
NYC/NJ metro terminals and terminals to the north/west.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Tuesday night...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals)
conditions likely in showers/isolated tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions
possible via morning fog/low clouds and showers/isolated tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak surface trough moves through the waters tonight with the
chance of scattered showers. A cold front approaches Tuesday and
moves into the waters Tuesday night and east Wednesday. Southerly
winds will precede the cold frontal passage and occasional gusts
on the ocean waters may approach small craft levels into early
this evening and Tuesday, especially west of Fire Island Inlet.
Otherwise winds and seas will remain below advisory levels tonight
through Tuesday night.

The pressure gradient is expected to remain rather weak through the
rest of the forecast period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280238
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1038 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After a warm and muggy night, a slow moving cold front will move
into the North Country on Tuesday, with widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity expected. The strongest storms will develop from
the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks eastward across Vermont,
with some potentially producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
small hail. Scattered showers linger into Wednesday as an upper
trough swings through, but the end of the work week will see a
return of warm and dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING/...
As of 1038 PM EDT Monday...Going forecast in good shape and only
needed to match observations to keep the current conditions fresh.
Otherwise...mid-level heights fall only slightly tonight and with
prevailing south/southwest winds it should be pretty warm and
muggy with lows only ranging through the 60s to locally 70 at
KBTV, and dewpoints holding just a couple degrees cooler. Can`t
rule out some fog in the more sheltered hollows where winds could
decouple, but due to the expected limited areal coverage have not
mentioned it in the official forecast.

Moving on to Tuesday the forecast remains on track for a busy
afternoon across the North Country with the aforementioned cold
front shifting into the region producing widespread showers and
thunderstorms. We continue to monitor the threat for stronger
storms to develop with several ingredients coming together to
support the idea of some becoming severe along with the potential
for localized flash flooding. Timing is as such that the front
enters into the St. Lawrence Valley mid-morning, with convection
firing out ahead across the northern Adirondacks around 16-18z,
and slowly progressing eastward into the Champlain Valley 18-20z,
and eastern Vermont thereafter. For severe potential, there`s not
one single ingredient that sticks out over another, with modest
MUCAPEs of 1500-2500 J/kg, 0-3km bulk shear around 30kts, and
0-6km shear 40-50kts, but low level moisture will be abundant with
dewpoints well into the 60`s and with increasing mid-level
southwesterlies we`ll likely see a few stronger storms possibly
producing localized damaging winds. Of more concern though is the
threat for some localized flash flooding as a plume of enhanced
PWATs interacts with the boundary and the low/mid level flow
parallels the front supporting some training of storms. We`ll
touch on this more in an upcoming hydro section this afternoon, as
well as in the short term period. Stay tuned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...no huge changes in the forecast. at the
start of tuesday evening, we should have a line of convection
(likely focused across Vermont) that will be pushing slowly east.
looks like a threat for locally heavy rain will continue until
about midnight. model guidance indicates a shortwave that will
move into the region during the early evening. thinking this will
help to increase the coverage of convection. add in some "cell
training", some locally heavy rain is a distinct possibility. see
the hydro section below for a few more details.

wednesday will be quieter than tuesday, however a few showers
across the north are possible. a stronger shortwave will zip
across the region during the day, however low level moisture is
quite limited (precipitable water values well below 1"). will
probably see a few showers develop across the higher terrain, thus
have painted in some 30-40% pops. limited instability, so not
looking for any thunderstorms.

wednesday night will be quiet as weak high pressure starts to
build in. i suppose we could see some areas of river valley fog.

stuck with model guidance blends for temperatures. should average
out close to normal for this time of year. lots of 70s to around
80f for wednesday. generally 50s/close to 60f for overnight lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...initial glance at the upcoming July 4TH
Holiday Weekend indicates pretty decent weather for all the
outdoor activities planned. i think most everyone will be pleased
with that tidbit of information!

12z guidance (GFS & ECMWF) are in relatively good agreement, so
the featured forecast is basically a blend of what we`ve had
previously along with the newest data. some comments on each day:

thursday: should be a fine day with near normal temperatures and
relatively low humidity thanks to high pressure overhead.

friday: upper trough will be moving into the region during the
day. most of the energy is far to our north, but we`ll have
marginal instability and moisture around to trigger a few showers
and t-storms.

saturday: cyclonic flow along with slightly cool temperatures
aloft combined with daytime heating should result in a few
showers, mainly across higher terrain. however for the vast
majority of the region the vast majority of the time it will be
dry with partly sunny skies. temperatures a little below normal,
but still quite comfy.

sunday: looking similar to saturday. a little less low level
moisture, so any showers will be lighter and harder to find. have
only 15-20% chance of rain for the higher terrain. temperatures
will again be just a few degrees below normal, but still comfy.
another "get outside and enjoy it" kind of day.

Monday July 4th: see above.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected
through the period with potential MVFR ceilings at KRUT/KSLK
tomorrow afternoon during period of passing showers. Gusty
surface winds due to passing trof are weakening and will go light
and variable overnight before becoming southerly at 50-10 knots
by mid-day tomorrow. After 12z Tuesday, a slow moving cold front
will bring widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, though
mainly from the Adirondacks eastward and after 17z. Expect periods
of MVFR to IFR visibilities due to heavy showers as they pass over
most stations tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook 00z Wednesday through Saturday...
00z Wednesday through 12z Wednesday...+SHRA/TSRA likely along a
cold frontal passage, with locally strong/severe storms possible
mainly from the Champlain Valley eastward. Brief vsby/cig
reductions to MVFR/IFR possible.
12z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Mainly VFR with chance MVFR
showers.
00z Thursday through 12z Friday...Mainly VFR under high
pressure. Locally dense LIFR fog possible mainly at MPV/SLK 06-12Z
each night.
12z Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR with chance
MVFR showers and thunderstorms along another frontal passage.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
as of 325 pm monday... 12z guidance suite showing some signals
for localized heavy rain tuesday afternoon and evening, primarily
across vermont. with a deep southwest flow forecast to be in
place, the showers/t-storms that will develop won`t make fast
progress to the east. rather, the individual convective cells will
be moving from southwest to northeast within the slow moving line,
and this sets up the possibility for "training" (eg: one after the
other) cells. this type of situation can result in narrow stripes
of heavier precipitation footprints. precipitable water values
will peak somewhere in the order of 1.5 to 1.7", primarily across
vermont. these values aren`t excessive, but indicative of a fairly
moist atmosphere. adding to the ingredient list, models indicate a
short wave will be pushing into the area during the evening. the
NAM and GFS both indicate a blossoming of activity across vermont
between 00z-03z. raw QPF from some of the hi-res models indicate
some spot totals in excess of 1" in an hour or two. flash flood
guidance (FFG) is fairly high, given the relative dryness of late.
but that does not mean we can`t have flooding. 1 hour FFG is
roughly 1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is 2.3-3.0". It might be hard to
see that amount of rain in just 1 hour, but if we`ve got a slow
moving line with repeated cells moving across an area for 3 hours,
that 3 hour FFG is not too hard to achieve. Any flooding would be
localized to small basins. Not expecting enough widespread heavy
rain to have any significant impact on river levels.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...Lahiff/MV
HYDROLOGY...Nash




000
FXUS61 KBUF 280231
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1031 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the region overnight with a chance
of showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm through Tuesday.
Then surface high pressure will build across the Lower Great Lakes
region with generally fair and seasonable weather on Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak, moisture starved cold front will move across the region
after midnight...with legitimately cooler air slowly making its way
across the Lower Great Lakes. The more comfortable airmass will not
be fully `appreciated` until after daybreak though, as temperatures
overnight will only drop off into the low to mid 60s for most areas.
Tuesday, there will also be a threat of a few showers and possibly
an isolated thunderstorm especially inland and away from the
stabilizing influence of the lakes. SPC has issued a Marginal threat
for severe thunderstorms further to the east of lake Ontario but
it`s likely that the lake breeze will help to suppress thunderstorm
development in this area. Highs on Wednesday will be much cooler and
comfortable with 70s expected across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On Tuesday night a closed 500 mb low will track north of Lake
Ontario with its trough axis forecast to slowly move across our
region. Although this will be fairly strong feature, it will pass
overnight with no diurnal instability. As a result, expect the areal
coverage of showers to be spotty at best with little rainfall in
most areas to help with dry soil conditions. Cloud cover will limit
radiational cooling, but the cold air mass will still support lows
averaging in the lower to mid 50s.

On Wednesday the trough axis will slowly move from eastern New York
into New England. Due to the closer proximity of the trough there
maybe some showers across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Any
showers would be along or inland of the lake breeze which will
extend northeast of Lake Ontario. This is in line with a consensus
of guidance which has light convectively driven QPF in this region.
There will be limited instability here but with cool air aloft an
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Otherwise the rest of the
area will see a mix of sun and clouds as low level moisture
initially forces diurnal cumulus to develop inland from the lakes
before mixing out later in the day. Temperatures will remain just a
tad below average with highs in the mid 70s at lower elevations and
around 70 across higher terrain.

Dry weather will return after this, with high pressure forecast to
build across the Ohio valley Wednesday and then shift across the
lower Great Lakes through Thursday night. This will result in fair
weather and mostly clear skies throughout the period. Temperatures
on Thursday will be seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be on the cool side, especially Wednesday
night when temperatures in the Southern Tier valleys are expected to
drop into the mid to upper 40s. Temperature forecasts reflect a
slightly wider diurnal temperature swing than consensus guidance due
to the dry airmass influenced by high pressure.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Friday a mid level trough will pass across the region, with a weak
cold front passing across WNY and CNY. We will continue with low
chance pops along this front due to the frontal passage and
favorable dynamics aloft, despite moisture fields that are not
overly impressive.

Saturday through Monday, July 4th, surface high pressure will slide
from the Western Great Lakes region to the Eastern Great Lakes
region. A mean long wave trough aloft will limit the warming
associated with this surface high. Afternoon temperatures will warm
from the mid 70s Friday, to the lower 80s by Monday. There may be a
stray shower east of Lake Ontario Saturday with the presence of the
upper level low...otherwise mostly sunny skies and dry weather will
prevail through the weekend, with comfortable dewpoints.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front will move across the forecast area after 05z which
will bring lowering CIGS and possibly brief MVFR conditions with
any showers activity. Otherwise, on Tuesday expect mainly VFR
conditions with a chance of showers or an isolated thunderstorm.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight, A weak cold front will cross the region with a chance of a
few showers. Behind the cold front, northwesterly winds pick up
during the midday and especially in the afternoon on Tuesday. This
will likely allow for some choppy waters east of Braddock Bay, but
below small craft advisory levels.

Surface High pressure will then build across the Lower Great Lakes
Wednesday and remain over the region through Thursday with light
winds and minimal waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR/LEVAN/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...AR/LEVAN/TMA
MARINE...AR/LEVAN




000
FXUS61 KBGM 280119
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
919 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will be mainly dry but mild and muggy tonight ahead of a
cold front. This front will bring showers and storms to the area
Tuesday then be followed by cooler and drier weather for midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
900 pm update...
Rain showers tracked eastward across Oneida county earlier this
evening but have since moved east and dissipated. A weak boundary
situated N-S from the Finger Lakes southward into n-central PA has
started to wash out a bit and lift back to the north as a weak
push of moisture from the south begins to move in. Have dropped
all mention of showers and storms from the forecast for the rest
of tonight. Boundary layer has become stable enough to keep all
convective development on hold until later tomorrow morning.
There is still some uncertainty concerning the areal extent of
cloud cover expected tonight and tomorrow morning. The clouds will
have a significant event on temperatures tonight and
tomorrow...along with an impact on eventual convective potential
late tomorrow morning and into the early afternoon. More cloud
cover longer across the region will inhibit the amt of
instability...while less cloud cover will allow for stronger
destabilization and potentially stronger storms. Rest of the
forecast still on track.

Previous discussion...
Skies are beginning to clear west to east across the area in the
wake of an initial area of showers that is now located over far
S/E zones as of the mid afternoon. In the wake of this first
area, destabilization is occurring over Finger Lakes area into
Lake Plain as temperatures are warming with moist conditions in
the low levels. A cold front that will affect tomorrow is still
located upstream over southern Ontario with area in southerly
flow. For the late afternoon into early this evening, first area
of showers will continue to move east and exit S/E portions of the
CWA by this evening. Meanwhile, expect some isolated showers or
storms may form over remaining areas where clearing and
destabilization is occurring.

Mainly quiet weather for tonight as any showers/storms diminish
after sunset. Conditions will be mild and muggy in moist slot ahead
of cold front. Also, the abundant moisture in the lower levels
looks to result in low level stratus formation overnight
especially from NE PA into the southern tier. Lows will be mainly
in the mid 60s.

For Tuesday, severe weather threat looks a little higher based on
the latest suite of model guidance. Early in the day, slow moving
cold front will be near west edge of the CWA and will slowly
advance east. Low stratus should mix out through the morning and
allow for enough destabilization for showers and thunderstorms to
fire along and just east of the front around midday into the early
afternoon (15-18z). This should occur near or just west of the
I-81 corridor. Latest model guidance indicates ML CAPES by this
time of around 700-900 J/kG (GFS) to as high as 2000-2500 J/KG
(NAM). Thus see 1500 J/KG as reasonable along with 40 knots of 0-6
km bulk shear which is what models are showing. Limiting factor
will be weak mid level laps rates under 6.0 C/km due to warm
layer. For this reason, if low level moisture is less than models
show, CAPE aloft will be quite narrow and thin further limiting
severe weather potential. This all said, threat currently high
enough for SPC to upgrade areas from I-81 east to a slight risk
meaning scattered severe storms will be possible. The biggest
threats will be strong winds and small hail. Have some concerns
about heavy rain as well due to slow movement of front and high
PWATs near 1.5 inches so some areas could get a good soaking.
However dry antecedent conditions should limit Flash flood
potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
To start the period, slow moving cold front will be over S/E part
of the CWA where showers/storms will likely still be ongoing while
remaining areas across the Twin Tiers north and west will be
seeing activity come to an end in the front`s wake. These
showers/storms will exit west to east by the overnight with cooler
and drier air moving in as lows drop into the 50s.

Wednesday will be cool and dry compared to recent weather with a
mix of sun and clouds. Lingering trough could bring a few isolated
showers across central NY with otherwise dry weather with highs
mostly in the low to mid 70s. High pressure then builds in for
Wednesday night and Thursday with mainly clear skies. Lows will be
cool Wednesday night - upper 40s to mid 50s with highs Thursday in
the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
215 pm update... A progressive, fairly dry pattern overall, is
likely to continue this period.

An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front are
progged to impact the region Friday into Friday night. As such, we
have chance probabilities (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms.

Thereafter, it appears that we could have another extended stretch
of rain-free weather, with slowly building heights aloft, and
incoming surface high pressure.

Temperatures look fairly seasonable, with highs Friday mostly in
the 80s, dropping back a bit to the upper 70s-lower 80s for the
rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Visible satellite imagery shows clouds clearing across the Poconos
and Catskills on a westerly flow. There were scattered mid clouds
around 5000 to 7000 AGL also moving through central NY. A boundary
has stalled from just east of KSYR southwest to just east of KELM.
The boundary has not reached KITH and it looks stationary on the
KBGM radar loop. South and east of this boundary the winds were
southerly and low-level moisture was more plentiful with dewpoints
in the 60s. West of this boundary dewpoints have fallen into the
50s and the flow was westerly. It looks like winds will die off at
the surface overnight and return to southerly all sites and a few
thousand feet up the winds will remain south to southwest. With
nocturnal cooling expect MVFR ceilings to develop across KAVP-KBGM
with less chance for this farther north and west. KITH will be
close. Time the MVFR to KAVP and KBGM around 06Z. Rest of TAFS
will be VFR.

For Tuesday, mainly VFR in cumulus with a period of thunderstorms
between 17z and 21z KRME, KITH, KSYR and KELM, 18-22z KBGM and
20z-24z KAVP. Expect MVFR vsby and cig at times in thunderstorms.
So have a tempo group in TAFs for these times.

Surface winds will be S-SW at 5 to 10 knots and turn northwest
late in the forecast period except for KAVP.

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.

Friday-Saturday...Although VFR expected much of the time, brief
restrictions with showers/thunderstorms are possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...BJT/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DJN




000
FXUS61 KBGM 280119
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
919 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will be mainly dry but mild and muggy tonight ahead of a
cold front. This front will bring showers and storms to the area
Tuesday then be followed by cooler and drier weather for midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
900 pm update...
Rain showers tracked eastward across Oneida county earlier this
evening but have since moved east and dissipated. A weak boundary
situated N-S from the Finger Lakes southward into n-central PA has
started to wash out a bit and lift back to the north as a weak
push of moisture from the south begins to move in. Have dropped
all mention of showers and storms from the forecast for the rest
of tonight. Boundary layer has become stable enough to keep all
convective development on hold until later tomorrow morning.
There is still some uncertainty concerning the areal extent of
cloud cover expected tonight and tomorrow morning. The clouds will
have a significant event on temperatures tonight and
tomorrow...along with an impact on eventual convective potential
late tomorrow morning and into the early afternoon. More cloud
cover longer across the region will inhibit the amt of
instability...while less cloud cover will allow for stronger
destabilization and potentially stronger storms. Rest of the
forecast still on track.

Previous discussion...
Skies are beginning to clear west to east across the area in the
wake of an initial area of showers that is now located over far
S/E zones as of the mid afternoon. In the wake of this first
area, destabilization is occurring over Finger Lakes area into
Lake Plain as temperatures are warming with moist conditions in
the low levels. A cold front that will affect tomorrow is still
located upstream over southern Ontario with area in southerly
flow. For the late afternoon into early this evening, first area
of showers will continue to move east and exit S/E portions of the
CWA by this evening. Meanwhile, expect some isolated showers or
storms may form over remaining areas where clearing and
destabilization is occurring.

Mainly quiet weather for tonight as any showers/storms diminish
after sunset. Conditions will be mild and muggy in moist slot ahead
of cold front. Also, the abundant moisture in the lower levels
looks to result in low level stratus formation overnight
especially from NE PA into the southern tier. Lows will be mainly
in the mid 60s.

For Tuesday, severe weather threat looks a little higher based on
the latest suite of model guidance. Early in the day, slow moving
cold front will be near west edge of the CWA and will slowly
advance east. Low stratus should mix out through the morning and
allow for enough destabilization for showers and thunderstorms to
fire along and just east of the front around midday into the early
afternoon (15-18z). This should occur near or just west of the
I-81 corridor. Latest model guidance indicates ML CAPES by this
time of around 700-900 J/kG (GFS) to as high as 2000-2500 J/KG
(NAM). Thus see 1500 J/KG as reasonable along with 40 knots of 0-6
km bulk shear which is what models are showing. Limiting factor
will be weak mid level laps rates under 6.0 C/km due to warm
layer. For this reason, if low level moisture is less than models
show, CAPE aloft will be quite narrow and thin further limiting
severe weather potential. This all said, threat currently high
enough for SPC to upgrade areas from I-81 east to a slight risk
meaning scattered severe storms will be possible. The biggest
threats will be strong winds and small hail. Have some concerns
about heavy rain as well due to slow movement of front and high
PWATs near 1.5 inches so some areas could get a good soaking.
However dry antecedent conditions should limit Flash flood
potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
To start the period, slow moving cold front will be over S/E part
of the CWA where showers/storms will likely still be ongoing while
remaining areas across the Twin Tiers north and west will be
seeing activity come to an end in the front`s wake. These
showers/storms will exit west to east by the overnight with cooler
and drier air moving in as lows drop into the 50s.

Wednesday will be cool and dry compared to recent weather with a
mix of sun and clouds. Lingering trough could bring a few isolated
showers across central NY with otherwise dry weather with highs
mostly in the low to mid 70s. High pressure then builds in for
Wednesday night and Thursday with mainly clear skies. Lows will be
cool Wednesday night - upper 40s to mid 50s with highs Thursday in
the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
215 pm update... A progressive, fairly dry pattern overall, is
likely to continue this period.

An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front are
progged to impact the region Friday into Friday night. As such, we
have chance probabilities (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms.

Thereafter, it appears that we could have another extended stretch
of rain-free weather, with slowly building heights aloft, and
incoming surface high pressure.

Temperatures look fairly seasonable, with highs Friday mostly in
the 80s, dropping back a bit to the upper 70s-lower 80s for the
rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Visible satellite imagery shows clouds clearing across the Poconos
and Catskills on a westerly flow. There were scattered mid clouds
around 5000 to 7000 AGL also moving through central NY. A boundary
has stalled from just east of KSYR southwest to just east of KELM.
The boundary has not reached KITH and it looks stationary on the
KBGM radar loop. South and east of this boundary the winds were
southerly and low-level moisture was more plentiful with dewpoints
in the 60s. West of this boundary dewpoints have fallen into the
50s and the flow was westerly. It looks like winds will die off at
the surface overnight and return to southerly all sites and a few
thousand feet up the winds will remain south to southwest. With
nocturnal cooling expect MVFR ceilings to develop across KAVP-KBGM
with less chance for this farther north and west. KITH will be
close. Time the MVFR to KAVP and KBGM around 06Z. Rest of TAFS
will be VFR.

For Tuesday, mainly VFR in cumulus with a period of thunderstorms
between 17z and 21z KRME, KITH, KSYR and KELM, 18-22z KBGM and
20z-24z KAVP. Expect MVFR vsby and cig at times in thunderstorms.
So have a tempo group in TAFs for these times.

Surface winds will be S-SW at 5 to 10 knots and turn northwest
late in the forecast period except for KAVP.

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.

Friday-Saturday...Although VFR expected much of the time, brief
restrictions with showers/thunderstorms are possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...BJT/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DJN




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280105
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
905 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough moves across the region tonight. A cold front
approaches Tuesday and moves into the area Tuesday night, and
through the area Wednesday. The front moves farther offshore
Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through
Friday. Another cold front then approaches and passes through late
Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the
front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Showers continue to fall as of 9 pm across approximately the
western half of the county warning area. The rain had tapered off
however across most of Orange county. The 18Z models do show the
rain chances continuing and even slowly expanding eastward
overnight. With this scenario being supported by the current radar
data, the forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The longwave upper trough continues to dig into the eastern states
Tuesday and Tuesday night with additional energy rotating through
the trough. By 12Z Wednesday the trough axis still remains to the
west, through the eastern Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley.
Gulf of Mexico moisture is drawn up into the area through the
period with increasing low and mid level moisture. A more stable
marine layer remains in place and will limit the threat of
thunderstorms. However, inland instability increases Tuesday
afternoon and into the evening. Cape will be limited, however, a
few stronger thunderstorms will be possible, especially across the
lower Hudson Valley. The storm prediction center has a slight risk
area into portions of Orange county, but will not mention any
enhanced wording at this time as the better chances for the
stronger storms will be to the west.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front will likely be over the eastern zones Wednesday
morning. It will slowly push offshore through the day as it
dissipates. Its eastward progression could be slowed down by a weak
wave of low pressure attempting to form along the front. Thinking is
that chances of showers and thunderstorms will be primarily over the
eastern zones during the morning. Then in the afternoon and early
evening, PVA and destabilization could bring a shower or storm to
the rest of the forecast area.

High pressure brings dry weather on Thursday and Thursday night. For
Friday, a pre-frontal trough brings low chances of showers and
storms. The trailing cold front moves in Friday night, when
overall better chances occur.

It appears that this cold front will be slow to push offshore, so
low chances of showers and storms have been left in for eastern
sections Saturday morning. The front eventually sags to the south as
the upper flow aloft becomes more cyclonic Saturday night into
Sunday. ECMWF, which has been a northern outlier with a wave of low
pressure forming along the front, has trended farther south/drier
with this feature and associated precipitation. Will still leave in a
slight chance for the southern zones for this period until
confidence in dry weather increases further. High pressure otherwise
builds in from the northwest on Monday with dry conditions.

Temperatures through the long term period will be generally near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak low pressure trough will approach tonight, then a cold
front will approach on Tuesday...crossing Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

Gusty s/se winds gradually weaken through the late
evening...around 5 to 10 kt overnight...increasing to 10 to 15 kt
Tue afternoon. If breaks of sunshine develop winds for coastal
terminals could be around 5 kt stronger than forecast...with gusts
20 to 25 kt.

Low clouds likely to develop this evening at NYC and coastal
terminals, with MVFR cigs to start, then IFR overnight...lifr
possible for KGON/KISP. MVFR cigs expected to develop for
terminals to the north/west overnight.

IFR likely...possibly LIFR...across eastern terminals through the
day. Potential for KJFK/KLGA/KHPN to remain IFR all day. For NJ
terminals and terminals to the north/west...improvement to mvfr
likely in the afternoon. Low chance of a thunderstorm in the late
afternoon/evening for NYC/NJ metro terminals and terminals to the
north/west.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR cigs
tonight still a little uncertain. Potential for ifr cigs to
remain through the day. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon.
Southerly wind gusts of 20-25 kt possible tue afternoon if partial
sunshine materialize.

KLGA TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight could be
off by 1 to 2 hrs. Potential for ifr cigs late tonight and to
remain through the day. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon.
Southerly wind gusts of 20-25 kt possible Tue afternoon if
partial sunshine materialize.

KEWR TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight could be
off by 1 to 2 hrs. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon. occasional
Se wind gusts of 15 to 20 kt possible Tue afternoon if partial
sunshine materialize.

KTEB TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight could be
off by 1 to 2 hrs. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon. Occasional
S wind gusts of 15 to 20 kt possible Tue afternoon if partial
sunshine materialize.

KHPN TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR/LIFR cigs
tonight could be off by 1 to 2 hrs. IFR cigs possible to remain through
the day. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon. Occasional southerly
wind gusts of 15-20 kt possible Tue afternoon if partial sunshine
materialize.

KISP TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR/LIFR cigs
tonight could be off by 1 to 2 hrs. IFR or lower cigs likely to
remain through the day. Southerly wind gusts of 15-20 kt possible
Tue afternoon if partial sunshine materialize.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Tuesday night...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals)
conditions likely in showers/isolated tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions
possible via morning fog/low clouds and showers/isolated tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak surface trough moves through the waters tonight with the
chance of scattered showers. A cold front approaches Tuesday and
moves into the waters Tuesday night and east Wednesday. Southerly
winds will precede the cold frontal passage and occasional gusts
on the ocean waters may approach small craft levels into early
this evening and Tuesday, especially west of Fire Island Inlet.
Otherwise winds and seas will remain below advisory levels tonight
through Tuesday night.

The pressure gradient is expected to remain rather weak through the
rest of the forecast period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280105
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
905 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough moves across the region tonight. A cold front
approaches Tuesday and moves into the area Tuesday night, and
through the area Wednesday. The front moves farther offshore
Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through
Friday. Another cold front then approaches and passes through late
Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the
front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Showers continue to fall as of 9 pm across approximately the
western half of the county warning area. The rain had tapered off
however across most of Orange county. The 18Z models do show the
rain chances continuing and even slowly expanding eastward
overnight. With this scenario being supported by the current radar
data, the forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The longwave upper trough continues to dig into the eastern states
Tuesday and Tuesday night with additional energy rotating through
the trough. By 12Z Wednesday the trough axis still remains to the
west, through the eastern Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley.
Gulf of Mexico moisture is drawn up into the area through the
period with increasing low and mid level moisture. A more stable
marine layer remains in place and will limit the threat of
thunderstorms. However, inland instability increases Tuesday
afternoon and into the evening. Cape will be limited, however, a
few stronger thunderstorms will be possible, especially across the
lower Hudson Valley. The storm prediction center has a slight risk
area into portions of Orange county, but will not mention any
enhanced wording at this time as the better chances for the
stronger storms will be to the west.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front will likely be over the eastern zones Wednesday
morning. It will slowly push offshore through the day as it
dissipates. Its eastward progression could be slowed down by a weak
wave of low pressure attempting to form along the front. Thinking is
that chances of showers and thunderstorms will be primarily over the
eastern zones during the morning. Then in the afternoon and early
evening, PVA and destabilization could bring a shower or storm to
the rest of the forecast area.

High pressure brings dry weather on Thursday and Thursday night. For
Friday, a pre-frontal trough brings low chances of showers and
storms. The trailing cold front moves in Friday night, when
overall better chances occur.

It appears that this cold front will be slow to push offshore, so
low chances of showers and storms have been left in for eastern
sections Saturday morning. The front eventually sags to the south as
the upper flow aloft becomes more cyclonic Saturday night into
Sunday. ECMWF, which has been a northern outlier with a wave of low
pressure forming along the front, has trended farther south/drier
with this feature and associated precipitation. Will still leave in a
slight chance for the southern zones for this period until
confidence in dry weather increases further. High pressure otherwise
builds in from the northwest on Monday with dry conditions.

Temperatures through the long term period will be generally near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak low pressure trough will approach tonight, then a cold
front will approach on Tuesday...crossing Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

Gusty s/se winds gradually weaken through the late
evening...around 5 to 10 kt overnight...increasing to 10 to 15 kt
Tue afternoon. If breaks of sunshine develop winds for coastal
terminals could be around 5 kt stronger than forecast...with gusts
20 to 25 kt.

Low clouds likely to develop this evening at NYC and coastal
terminals, with MVFR cigs to start, then IFR overnight...lifr
possible for KGON/KISP. MVFR cigs expected to develop for
terminals to the north/west overnight.

IFR likely...possibly LIFR...across eastern terminals through the
day. Potential for KJFK/KLGA/KHPN to remain IFR all day. For NJ
terminals and terminals to the north/west...improvement to mvfr
likely in the afternoon. Low chance of a thunderstorm in the late
afternoon/evening for NYC/NJ metro terminals and terminals to the
north/west.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR cigs
tonight still a little uncertain. Potential for ifr cigs to
remain through the day. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon.
Southerly wind gusts of 20-25 kt possible tue afternoon if partial
sunshine materialize.

KLGA TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight could be
off by 1 to 2 hrs. Potential for ifr cigs late tonight and to
remain through the day. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon.
Southerly wind gusts of 20-25 kt possible Tue afternoon if
partial sunshine materialize.

KEWR TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight could be
off by 1 to 2 hrs. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon. occasional
Se wind gusts of 15 to 20 kt possible Tue afternoon if partial
sunshine materialize.

KTEB TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight could be
off by 1 to 2 hrs. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon. Occasional
S wind gusts of 15 to 20 kt possible Tue afternoon if partial
sunshine materialize.

KHPN TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR/LIFR cigs
tonight could be off by 1 to 2 hrs. IFR cigs possible to remain through
the day. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon. Occasional southerly
wind gusts of 15-20 kt possible Tue afternoon if partial sunshine
materialize.

KISP TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR/LIFR cigs
tonight could be off by 1 to 2 hrs. IFR or lower cigs likely to
remain through the day. Southerly wind gusts of 15-20 kt possible
Tue afternoon if partial sunshine materialize.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Tuesday night...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals)
conditions likely in showers/isolated tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions
possible via morning fog/low clouds and showers/isolated tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak surface trough moves through the waters tonight with the
chance of scattered showers. A cold front approaches Tuesday and
moves into the waters Tuesday night and east Wednesday. Southerly
winds will precede the cold frontal passage and occasional gusts
on the ocean waters may approach small craft levels into early
this evening and Tuesday, especially west of Fire Island Inlet.
Otherwise winds and seas will remain below advisory levels tonight
through Tuesday night.

The pressure gradient is expected to remain rather weak through the
rest of the forecast period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET




000
FXUS61 KALY 280022
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
822 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak warm front will exit New England overnight. A cold front
move through our region Tuesday afternoon and night. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure
will build east from the Midwest Wednesday, and bring dry weather
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Well this is my last AFD and my last operational shift as I will
be retiring July 1. Its probably been 30 some years since the
first AFD I wrote one sometime in the 1980s when the product was
created. Warren R.Snyder

The band of showers that moved though today...have exited the
region. The weak wmfnt that triggered them was NNE to SSW from Vt
into the Catskills. While much of the Mohawk Valley and
Adirondacks have cleared in this systems wake...Td have risen to
the 60s in many areas and an sct shra have formed again in the w
mhwk vly.

The combination of slowing eastward movement of wmfnt incrg llvl
moisture...will result in this clearing decelerating. Much of the
guidance suggests clouds will form and lower in this moisture
rich environment with some areas of hz and light fog. The western
edge of the clearing seems to have set up fm roughly Warren County
into the Catskills. As light winds and a mostly clear sky allow
temperatures to fall faster in these clearing areas than areas to
the east that remain cloudy. As td have risen into the 60s...min
temps will be confined to this range as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper energy north of the Great Lakes and the associated cold
front making steady progress east and an axis of instability ahead
of the cold front. Some sun is expected at least in western areas
Tuesday morning...and how far east sees some sun depends on how
the band of clouds over us evolves through the night. Once we
reach convective temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s...most
areas should see more clouds than sun by midday...with showers and
thunderstorms developing over central NY..then tracking through
eastern NY and Western New England in the afternoon through the
evening.

There is a good consensus in guidance that an axis of decent
instability sets up ahead of the cold front...mainly due to
relatively high surface dew points and not so much due to hot
surface temperatures. However...the high dew points over the Great
Lakes to western New York at model initialization time this
morning have mixed out to lower levels this afternoon.
So...surface dew points tomorrow will have a big influence on
severe weather potential...and will make the difference between
700-1000 j/kg CAPES and 1000-2000 j/kg CAPES.

There is a slight risk of severe weather...and as long as dew
points rise and translate into decent instability...initial
thunderstorm updrafts will pulse up strongly...with potential
marginal severe hail and winds. As thunderstorms track east...new
updrafts will again pulse up from time to time with the potential
for brief scattered marginally severe hail and winds.

The low level shear and upper jet/upper dynamics are relatively
weak but there is a decent boundary layer thermal gradient along
the cold front for some frontogenetic convergence. So...putting
the possibility for small hail and gusty winds into the forecast
Tuesday afternoon and evening. There could be some locally heavy
rain...with the relatively weak steering flow...if storms can
train. It has been a bit dry in our region...so any flash flood
threat is very low but will just have to keep an eye out for
training thunderstorms for some localized nuisance ponding of
water in some areas. Highs Tuesday in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Lingering shower activity Tuesday night as winds shift to west and
northwest and by daybreak Wednesday...any isolated showers should
be over eastern NY and New England. The isolated showers supported
by lagging upper energy should exit through the afternoon...with
improving sky cover through the day in all areas. Highs Wednesday
in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Much more sun and dryer weather
Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 80s...but mid to upper
70s in higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers have exited the region as the wmfnt that triggered them
is from Vt into the Catskills. Overnight, combination of rainfall
earlier along with incrg surface dewpoints into the 60s will lead
toward lower CIGS and VIS well into MVFR flight categories. Where breaks
in the clouds occur this evening and winds decouple, IFR conditions
will be possible with fog and/or low stratus.

Winds will generally be from the southerly direction 5 to 10 KTS
overnight in most areas.

Tuesday morning low clouds and fog will dissipate with conds bcmg
VFR in most areas with sct-bkn cu. Hwvr an approaching cdfnt will
trigger shra and tstms some of which could become quite strong in
the afternoon with MVFR conds. SPC has placed the area in a slight
risk of Severe thunderstorms Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

RH will then increase to between 80 and 100 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Tuesday will be around 50 to 65
percent...then near 100 percent with scattered thunderstorms later
Tuesday afternoon evening. Minimum RH values on Wednesday around
45 to 60 percent.

Southerly winds will be 15 mph or less tonight. Winds on Tuesday
will be south-southwest at 15 mph or less. Winds will shift to
west and northwest by Wednesday at around 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There will be showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Rainfall totals could
reach one third to three quarters of an inch, with some isolated
higher amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light rainfall amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Snyder
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...Snyder
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 280022
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
822 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak warm front will exit New England overnight. A cold front
move through our region Tuesday afternoon and night. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure
will build east from the Midwest Wednesday, and bring dry weather
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Well this is my last AFD and my last operational shift as I will
be retiring July 1. Its probably been 30 some years since the
first AFD I wrote one sometime in the 1980s when the product was
created. Warren R.Snyder

The band of showers that moved though today...have exited the
region. The weak wmfnt that triggered them was NNE to SSW from Vt
into the Catskills. While much of the Mohawk Valley and
Adirondacks have cleared in this systems wake...Td have risen to
the 60s in many areas and an sct shra have formed again in the w
mhwk vly.

The combination of slowing eastward movement of wmfnt incrg llvl
moisture...will result in this clearing decelerating. Much of the
guidance suggests clouds will form and lower in this moisture
rich environment with some areas of hz and light fog. The western
edge of the clearing seems to have set up fm roughly Warren County
into the Catskills. As light winds and a mostly clear sky allow
temperatures to fall faster in these clearing areas than areas to
the east that remain cloudy. As td have risen into the 60s...min
temps will be confined to this range as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper energy north of the Great Lakes and the associated cold
front making steady progress east and an axis of instability ahead
of the cold front. Some sun is expected at least in western areas
Tuesday morning...and how far east sees some sun depends on how
the band of clouds over us evolves through the night. Once we
reach convective temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s...most
areas should see more clouds than sun by midday...with showers and
thunderstorms developing over central NY..then tracking through
eastern NY and Western New England in the afternoon through the
evening.

There is a good consensus in guidance that an axis of decent
instability sets up ahead of the cold front...mainly due to
relatively high surface dew points and not so much due to hot
surface temperatures. However...the high dew points over the Great
Lakes to western New York at model initialization time this
morning have mixed out to lower levels this afternoon.
So...surface dew points tomorrow will have a big influence on
severe weather potential...and will make the difference between
700-1000 j/kg CAPES and 1000-2000 j/kg CAPES.

There is a slight risk of severe weather...and as long as dew
points rise and translate into decent instability...initial
thunderstorm updrafts will pulse up strongly...with potential
marginal severe hail and winds. As thunderstorms track east...new
updrafts will again pulse up from time to time with the potential
for brief scattered marginally severe hail and winds.

The low level shear and upper jet/upper dynamics are relatively
weak but there is a decent boundary layer thermal gradient along
the cold front for some frontogenetic convergence. So...putting
the possibility for small hail and gusty winds into the forecast
Tuesday afternoon and evening. There could be some locally heavy
rain...with the relatively weak steering flow...if storms can
train. It has been a bit dry in our region...so any flash flood
threat is very low but will just have to keep an eye out for
training thunderstorms for some localized nuisance ponding of
water in some areas. Highs Tuesday in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Lingering shower activity Tuesday night as winds shift to west and
northwest and by daybreak Wednesday...any isolated showers should
be over eastern NY and New England. The isolated showers supported
by lagging upper energy should exit through the afternoon...with
improving sky cover through the day in all areas. Highs Wednesday
in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Much more sun and dryer weather
Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 80s...but mid to upper
70s in higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers have exited the region as the wmfnt that triggered them
is from Vt into the Catskills. Overnight, combination of rainfall
earlier along with incrg surface dewpoints into the 60s will lead
toward lower CIGS and VIS well into MVFR flight categories. Where breaks
in the clouds occur this evening and winds decouple, IFR conditions
will be possible with fog and/or low stratus.

Winds will generally be from the southerly direction 5 to 10 KTS
overnight in most areas.

Tuesday morning low clouds and fog will dissipate with conds bcmg
VFR in most areas with sct-bkn cu. Hwvr an approaching cdfnt will
trigger shra and tstms some of which could become quite strong in
the afternoon with MVFR conds. SPC has placed the area in a slight
risk of Severe thunderstorms Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

RH will then increase to between 80 and 100 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Tuesday will be around 50 to 65
percent...then near 100 percent with scattered thunderstorms later
Tuesday afternoon evening. Minimum RH values on Wednesday around
45 to 60 percent.

Southerly winds will be 15 mph or less tonight. Winds on Tuesday
will be south-southwest at 15 mph or less. Winds will shift to
west and northwest by Wednesday at around 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There will be showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Rainfall totals could
reach one third to three quarters of an inch, with some isolated
higher amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light rainfall amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Snyder
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...Snyder
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 280022
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
822 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak warm front will exit New England overnight. A cold front
move through our region Tuesday afternoon and night. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure
will build east from the Midwest Wednesday, and bring dry weather
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Well this is my last AFD and my last operational shift as I will
be retiring July 1. Its probably been 30 some years since the
first AFD I wrote one sometime in the 1980s when the product was
created. Warren R.Snyder

The band of showers that moved though today...have exited the
region. The weak wmfnt that triggered them was NNE to SSW from Vt
into the Catskills. While much of the Mohawk Valley and
Adirondacks have cleared in this systems wake...Td have risen to
the 60s in many areas and an sct shra have formed again in the w
mhwk vly.

The combination of slowing eastward movement of wmfnt incrg llvl
moisture...will result in this clearing decelerating. Much of the
guidance suggests clouds will form and lower in this moisture
rich environment with some areas of hz and light fog. The western
edge of the clearing seems to have set up fm roughly Warren County
into the Catskills. As light winds and a mostly clear sky allow
temperatures to fall faster in these clearing areas than areas to
the east that remain cloudy. As td have risen into the 60s...min
temps will be confined to this range as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper energy north of the Great Lakes and the associated cold
front making steady progress east and an axis of instability ahead
of the cold front. Some sun is expected at least in western areas
Tuesday morning...and how far east sees some sun depends on how
the band of clouds over us evolves through the night. Once we
reach convective temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s...most
areas should see more clouds than sun by midday...with showers and
thunderstorms developing over central NY..then tracking through
eastern NY and Western New England in the afternoon through the
evening.

There is a good consensus in guidance that an axis of decent
instability sets up ahead of the cold front...mainly due to
relatively high surface dew points and not so much due to hot
surface temperatures. However...the high dew points over the Great
Lakes to western New York at model initialization time this
morning have mixed out to lower levels this afternoon.
So...surface dew points tomorrow will have a big influence on
severe weather potential...and will make the difference between
700-1000 j/kg CAPES and 1000-2000 j/kg CAPES.

There is a slight risk of severe weather...and as long as dew
points rise and translate into decent instability...initial
thunderstorm updrafts will pulse up strongly...with potential
marginal severe hail and winds. As thunderstorms track east...new
updrafts will again pulse up from time to time with the potential
for brief scattered marginally severe hail and winds.

The low level shear and upper jet/upper dynamics are relatively
weak but there is a decent boundary layer thermal gradient along
the cold front for some frontogenetic convergence. So...putting
the possibility for small hail and gusty winds into the forecast
Tuesday afternoon and evening. There could be some locally heavy
rain...with the relatively weak steering flow...if storms can
train. It has been a bit dry in our region...so any flash flood
threat is very low but will just have to keep an eye out for
training thunderstorms for some localized nuisance ponding of
water in some areas. Highs Tuesday in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Lingering shower activity Tuesday night as winds shift to west and
northwest and by daybreak Wednesday...any isolated showers should
be over eastern NY and New England. The isolated showers supported
by lagging upper energy should exit through the afternoon...with
improving sky cover through the day in all areas. Highs Wednesday
in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Much more sun and dryer weather
Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 80s...but mid to upper
70s in higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers have exited the region as the wmfnt that triggered them
is from Vt into the Catskills. Overnight, combination of rainfall
earlier along with incrg surface dewpoints into the 60s will lead
toward lower CIGS and VIS well into MVFR flight categories. Where breaks
in the clouds occur this evening and winds decouple, IFR conditions
will be possible with fog and/or low stratus.

Winds will generally be from the southerly direction 5 to 10 KTS
overnight in most areas.

Tuesday morning low clouds and fog will dissipate with conds bcmg
VFR in most areas with sct-bkn cu. Hwvr an approaching cdfnt will
trigger shra and tstms some of which could become quite strong in
the afternoon with MVFR conds. SPC has placed the area in a slight
risk of Severe thunderstorms Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

RH will then increase to between 80 and 100 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Tuesday will be around 50 to 65
percent...then near 100 percent with scattered thunderstorms later
Tuesday afternoon evening. Minimum RH values on Wednesday around
45 to 60 percent.

Southerly winds will be 15 mph or less tonight. Winds on Tuesday
will be south-southwest at 15 mph or less. Winds will shift to
west and northwest by Wednesday at around 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There will be showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Rainfall totals could
reach one third to three quarters of an inch, with some isolated
higher amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light rainfall amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Snyder
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...Snyder
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 280022
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
822 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak warm front will exit New England overnight. A cold front
move through our region Tuesday afternoon and night. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure
will build east from the Midwest Wednesday, and bring dry weather
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Well this is my last AFD and my last operational shift as I will
be retiring July 1. Its probably been 30 some years since the
first AFD I wrote one sometime in the 1980s when the product was
created. Warren R.Snyder

The band of showers that moved though today...have exited the
region. The weak wmfnt that triggered them was NNE to SSW from Vt
into the Catskills. While much of the Mohawk Valley and
Adirondacks have cleared in this systems wake...Td have risen to
the 60s in many areas and an sct shra have formed again in the w
mhwk vly.

The combination of slowing eastward movement of wmfnt incrg llvl
moisture...will result in this clearing decelerating. Much of the
guidance suggests clouds will form and lower in this moisture
rich environment with some areas of hz and light fog. The western
edge of the clearing seems to have set up fm roughly Warren County
into the Catskills. As light winds and a mostly clear sky allow
temperatures to fall faster in these clearing areas than areas to
the east that remain cloudy. As td have risen into the 60s...min
temps will be confined to this range as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper energy north of the Great Lakes and the associated cold
front making steady progress east and an axis of instability ahead
of the cold front. Some sun is expected at least in western areas
Tuesday morning...and how far east sees some sun depends on how
the band of clouds over us evolves through the night. Once we
reach convective temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s...most
areas should see more clouds than sun by midday...with showers and
thunderstorms developing over central NY..then tracking through
eastern NY and Western New England in the afternoon through the
evening.

There is a good consensus in guidance that an axis of decent
instability sets up ahead of the cold front...mainly due to
relatively high surface dew points and not so much due to hot
surface temperatures. However...the high dew points over the Great
Lakes to western New York at model initialization time this
morning have mixed out to lower levels this afternoon.
So...surface dew points tomorrow will have a big influence on
severe weather potential...and will make the difference between
700-1000 j/kg CAPES and 1000-2000 j/kg CAPES.

There is a slight risk of severe weather...and as long as dew
points rise and translate into decent instability...initial
thunderstorm updrafts will pulse up strongly...with potential
marginal severe hail and winds. As thunderstorms track east...new
updrafts will again pulse up from time to time with the potential
for brief scattered marginally severe hail and winds.

The low level shear and upper jet/upper dynamics are relatively
weak but there is a decent boundary layer thermal gradient along
the cold front for some frontogenetic convergence. So...putting
the possibility for small hail and gusty winds into the forecast
Tuesday afternoon and evening. There could be some locally heavy
rain...with the relatively weak steering flow...if storms can
train. It has been a bit dry in our region...so any flash flood
threat is very low but will just have to keep an eye out for
training thunderstorms for some localized nuisance ponding of
water in some areas. Highs Tuesday in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Lingering shower activity Tuesday night as winds shift to west and
northwest and by daybreak Wednesday...any isolated showers should
be over eastern NY and New England. The isolated showers supported
by lagging upper energy should exit through the afternoon...with
improving sky cover through the day in all areas. Highs Wednesday
in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Much more sun and dryer weather
Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 80s...but mid to upper
70s in higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers have exited the region as the wmfnt that triggered them
is from Vt into the Catskills. Overnight, combination of rainfall
earlier along with incrg surface dewpoints into the 60s will lead
toward lower CIGS and VIS well into MVFR flight categories. Where breaks
in the clouds occur this evening and winds decouple, IFR conditions
will be possible with fog and/or low stratus.

Winds will generally be from the southerly direction 5 to 10 KTS
overnight in most areas.

Tuesday morning low clouds and fog will dissipate with conds bcmg
VFR in most areas with sct-bkn cu. Hwvr an approaching cdfnt will
trigger shra and tstms some of which could become quite strong in
the afternoon with MVFR conds. SPC has placed the area in a slight
risk of Severe thunderstorms Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

RH will then increase to between 80 and 100 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Tuesday will be around 50 to 65
percent...then near 100 percent with scattered thunderstorms later
Tuesday afternoon evening. Minimum RH values on Wednesday around
45 to 60 percent.

Southerly winds will be 15 mph or less tonight. Winds on Tuesday
will be south-southwest at 15 mph or less. Winds will shift to
west and northwest by Wednesday at around 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There will be showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Rainfall totals could
reach one third to three quarters of an inch, with some isolated
higher amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light rainfall amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Snyder
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...Snyder
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280019
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
819 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough moves across the region tonight. A cold front
approaches Tuesday and moves into the area Tuesday night, and
through the area Wednesday. The front moves farther offshore
Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through
Friday. Another cold front then approaches and passes through late
Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the
front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A weak surface trough moves into the area this evening and late
tonight while slowly dissipating. Heights continue to fall slowly
as a long wave upper trough moves into the Great Lakes region.
Weak lift is accompanying the trough with little surface or mixed
layer CAPE. Also, instability is minimal with the best instability
across the lower Hudson Valley. So will not mention any thunder
tonight. As the area of showers moves farther to the east and
south through tonight, expect coverage to decrease. So, begin with
likely pops mainly across the western zones and lower to slight
chance late tonight. With increased low level moisture and a
southerly flow a marine layer will be in place. Stratus was
developing during the afternoon, and will become widespread
tonight.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic Ocean beaches through early this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The longwave upper trough continues to dig into the eastern states
Tuesday and Tuesday night with additional energy rotating through
the trough. By 12Z Wednesday the trough axis still remains to the
west, through the eastern Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley.
Gulf of Mexico moisture is drawn up into the area through the
period with increasing low and mid level moisture. A more stable
marine layer remains in place and will limit the threat of
thunderstorms. However, inland instability increases Tuesday
afternoon and into the evening. Cape will be limited, however, a
few stronger thunderstorms will be possible, especially across the
lower Hudson Valley. The storm prediction center has a slight risk
area into portions of Orange county, but will not mention any
enhanced wording at this time as the better chances for the
stronger storms will be to the west.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front will likely be over the eastern zones Wednesday
morning. It will slowly push offshore through the day as it
dissipates. Its eastward progression could be slowed down by a weak
wave of low pressure attempting to form along the front. Thinking is
that chances of showers and thunderstorms will be primarily over the
eastern zones during the morning. Then in the afternoon and early
evening, PVA and destabilization could bring a shower or storm to
the rest of the forecast area.

High pressure brings dry weather on Thursday and Thursday night. For
Friday, a pre-frontal trough brings low chances of showers and
storms. The trailing cold front moves in Friday night, when
overall better chances occur.

It appears that this cold front will be slow to push offshore, so
low chances of showers and storms have been left in for eastern
sections Saturday morning. The front eventually sags to the south as
the upper flow aloft becomes more cyclonic Saturday night into
Sunday. ECMWF, which has been a northern outlier with a wave of low
pressure forming along the front, has trended farther south/drier
with this feature and associated precipitation. Will still leave in a
slight chance for the southern zones for this period until
confidence in dry weather increases further. High pressure otherwise
builds in from the northwest on Monday with dry conditions.

Temperatures through the long term period will be generally near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak low pressure trough will approach tonight, then a cold
front will approach on Tuesday...crossing Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

Gusty s/se winds gradually weaken through the late
evening...around 5 to 10 kt overnight...increasing to 10 to 15 kt
Tue afternoon. If breaks of sunshine develop winds for coastal
terminals could be around 5 kt stronger than forecast...with gusts
20 to 25 kt.

Low clouds likely to develop this evening at NYC and coastal
terminals, with MVFR cigs to start, then IFR overnight...lifr
possible for KGON/KISP. MVFR cigs expected to develop for
terminals to the north/west overnight.

IFR likely...possibly LIFR...across eastern terminals through the
day. Potential for KJFK/KLGA/KHPN to remain IFR all day. For NJ
terminals and terminals to the north/west...improvement to mvfr
likely in the afternoon. Low chance of a thunderstorm in the late
afternoon/evening for NYC/NJ metro terminals and terminals to the
north/west.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR cigs
tonight still a little uncertain. Potential for ifr cigs to
remain through the day. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon.
Southerly wind gusts of 20-25 kt possible tue afternoon if partial
sunshine materialize.

KLGA TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight could be
off by 1 to 2 hrs. Potential for ifr cigs late tonight and to
remain through the day. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon.
Southerly wind gusts of 20-25 kt possible Tue afternoon if
partial sunshine materialize.

KEWR TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight could be
off by 1 to 2 hrs. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon. occasional
Se wind gusts of 15 to 20 kt possible Tue afternoon if partial
sunshine materialize.

KTEB TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight could be
off by 1 to 2 hrs. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon. Occasional
S wind gusts of 15 to 20 kt possible Tue afternoon if partial
sunshine materialize.

KHPN TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR/LIFR cigs
tonight could be off by 1 to 2 hrs. IFR cigs possible to remain through
the day. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon. Occasional southerly
wind gusts of 15-20 kt possible Tue afternoon if partial sunshine
materialize.

KISP TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR/LIFR cigs
tonight could be off by 1 to 2 hrs. IFR or lower cigs likely to
remain through the day. Southerly wind gusts of 15-20 kt possible
Tue afternoon if partial sunshine materialize.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Tuesday night...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals)
conditions likely in showers/isolated tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions
possible via morning fog/low clouds and showers/isolated tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak surface trough moves through the waters tonight with the
chance of scattered showers. A cold front approaches Tuesday and
moves into the waters Tuesday night and east Wednesday. Southerly
winds will precede the cold frontal passage and occasional gusts
on the ocean waters may approach small craft levels into early
this evening and Tuesday, especially west of Fire Island Inlet.
Otherwise winds and seas will remain below advisory levels tonight
through Tuesday night.

The pressure gradient is expected to remain rather weak through the
rest of the forecast period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 280019
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
819 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough moves across the region tonight. A cold front
approaches Tuesday and moves into the area Tuesday night, and
through the area Wednesday. The front moves farther offshore
Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through
Friday. Another cold front then approaches and passes through late
Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the
front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A weak surface trough moves into the area this evening and late
tonight while slowly dissipating. Heights continue to fall slowly
as a long wave upper trough moves into the Great Lakes region.
Weak lift is accompanying the trough with little surface or mixed
layer CAPE. Also, instability is minimal with the best instability
across the lower Hudson Valley. So will not mention any thunder
tonight. As the area of showers moves farther to the east and
south through tonight, expect coverage to decrease. So, begin with
likely pops mainly across the western zones and lower to slight
chance late tonight. With increased low level moisture and a
southerly flow a marine layer will be in place. Stratus was
developing during the afternoon, and will become widespread
tonight.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic Ocean beaches through early this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The longwave upper trough continues to dig into the eastern states
Tuesday and Tuesday night with additional energy rotating through
the trough. By 12Z Wednesday the trough axis still remains to the
west, through the eastern Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley.
Gulf of Mexico moisture is drawn up into the area through the
period with increasing low and mid level moisture. A more stable
marine layer remains in place and will limit the threat of
thunderstorms. However, inland instability increases Tuesday
afternoon and into the evening. Cape will be limited, however, a
few stronger thunderstorms will be possible, especially across the
lower Hudson Valley. The storm prediction center has a slight risk
area into portions of Orange county, but will not mention any
enhanced wording at this time as the better chances for the
stronger storms will be to the west.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front will likely be over the eastern zones Wednesday
morning. It will slowly push offshore through the day as it
dissipates. Its eastward progression could be slowed down by a weak
wave of low pressure attempting to form along the front. Thinking is
that chances of showers and thunderstorms will be primarily over the
eastern zones during the morning. Then in the afternoon and early
evening, PVA and destabilization could bring a shower or storm to
the rest of the forecast area.

High pressure brings dry weather on Thursday and Thursday night. For
Friday, a pre-frontal trough brings low chances of showers and
storms. The trailing cold front moves in Friday night, when
overall better chances occur.

It appears that this cold front will be slow to push offshore, so
low chances of showers and storms have been left in for eastern
sections Saturday morning. The front eventually sags to the south as
the upper flow aloft becomes more cyclonic Saturday night into
Sunday. ECMWF, which has been a northern outlier with a wave of low
pressure forming along the front, has trended farther south/drier
with this feature and associated precipitation. Will still leave in a
slight chance for the southern zones for this period until
confidence in dry weather increases further. High pressure otherwise
builds in from the northwest on Monday with dry conditions.

Temperatures through the long term period will be generally near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak low pressure trough will approach tonight, then a cold
front will approach on Tuesday...crossing Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

Gusty s/se winds gradually weaken through the late
evening...around 5 to 10 kt overnight...increasing to 10 to 15 kt
Tue afternoon. If breaks of sunshine develop winds for coastal
terminals could be around 5 kt stronger than forecast...with gusts
20 to 25 kt.

Low clouds likely to develop this evening at NYC and coastal
terminals, with MVFR cigs to start, then IFR overnight...lifr
possible for KGON/KISP. MVFR cigs expected to develop for
terminals to the north/west overnight.

IFR likely...possibly LIFR...across eastern terminals through the
day. Potential for KJFK/KLGA/KHPN to remain IFR all day. For NJ
terminals and terminals to the north/west...improvement to mvfr
likely in the afternoon. Low chance of a thunderstorm in the late
afternoon/evening for NYC/NJ metro terminals and terminals to the
north/west.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR cigs
tonight still a little uncertain. Potential for ifr cigs to
remain through the day. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon.
Southerly wind gusts of 20-25 kt possible tue afternoon if partial
sunshine materialize.

KLGA TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight could be
off by 1 to 2 hrs. Potential for ifr cigs late tonight and to
remain through the day. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon.
Southerly wind gusts of 20-25 kt possible Tue afternoon if
partial sunshine materialize.

KEWR TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight could be
off by 1 to 2 hrs. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon. occasional
Se wind gusts of 15 to 20 kt possible Tue afternoon if partial
sunshine materialize.

KTEB TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight could be
off by 1 to 2 hrs. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon. Occasional
S wind gusts of 15 to 20 kt possible Tue afternoon if partial
sunshine materialize.

KHPN TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR/LIFR cigs
tonight could be off by 1 to 2 hrs. IFR cigs possible to remain through
the day. Low prob of tsra in late afternoon. Occasional southerly
wind gusts of 15-20 kt possible Tue afternoon if partial sunshine
materialize.

KISP TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR/LIFR cigs
tonight could be off by 1 to 2 hrs. IFR or lower cigs likely to
remain through the day. Southerly wind gusts of 15-20 kt possible
Tue afternoon if partial sunshine materialize.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Tuesday night...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals)
conditions likely in showers/isolated tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR and IFR/lower (coastal terminals) conditions
possible via morning fog/low clouds and showers/isolated tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak surface trough moves through the waters tonight with the
chance of scattered showers. A cold front approaches Tuesday and
moves into the waters Tuesday night and east Wednesday. Southerly
winds will precede the cold frontal passage and occasional gusts
on the ocean waters may approach small craft levels into early
this evening and Tuesday, especially west of Fire Island Inlet.
Otherwise winds and seas will remain below advisory levels tonight
through Tuesday night.

The pressure gradient is expected to remain rather weak through the
rest of the forecast period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET




000
FXUS61 KBGM 272345
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
745 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will be mainly dry but mild and muggy tonight ahead of a
cold front. This front will bring showers and storms to the area
Tuesday then be followed by cooler and drier weather for midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Skies are beginning to clear west to east across the area in the
wake of an initial area of showers that is now located over far
S/E zones as of the mid afternoon. In tha wake of this first area,
destabilization is occurring over Finger Lakes area into Lake
Plain as temperatures are warming with moist conditions in the low
levels. A cold front that will affect tomorrow is still located
upstream over southern Ontario with area in southerly flow. For
the late afternoon into early this evening, first area of showers
will continue to move east and exit S/E portions of the CWA by
this evening. Meanwhile, expect some isolated showers or storms
may form over remaining areas where clearing and destabilization
is occurring.

Mainly quiet weather for tonight as any showers/storms diminish
after sunset. Conditions will be mild and muggy in moist slot ahead
of cold front. Also, the abundant moisture in the lower levels
looks to result in low level stratus formation overnight
especially from NE PA into the southern tier. Lows will be mainly
in the mid 60s.

For Tuesday, severe weather threat looks a little higher based on
the latest suite of model guidance. Early in the day, slow moving
cold front will be near west edge of the CWA and will slowly
advance east. Low stratus should mix out through the morning and
allow for enough destabilization for showers and thunderstorms to
fire along and just east of the front around midday into the early
afternoon (15-18z). This should occur near or just west of the
I-81 corridor. Latest model guidance indicates ML CAPES by this
time of around 700-900 J/kG (GFS) to as high as 2000-2500 J/KG
(NAM). Thus see 1500 J/KG as reasonable along with 40 knots of 0-6
km bulk shear which is what models are showing. Limiting factor
will be weak mid level laps rates under 6.0 C/km due to warm
layer. For this reason, if low level moisture is less than models
show, CAPE aloft will be quite narrow and thin further limiting
severe weather potential. This all said, threat currently high
enough for SPC to upgrade areas from I-81 east to a slight risk
meaning scattered severe storms will be possible. The biggest
threats will be strong winds and small hail. Have some concerns
about heavy rain as well due to slow movement of front and high
PWATs near 1.5 inches so some areas could get a good soaking.
However dry antecedent conditions should limit Flash flood
potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
To start the period, slow moving cold front will be over S/E part
of the CWA where showers/storms will likely still be ongoing while
remaining areas across the Twin Tiers north and west will be
seeing activity come to an end in the front`s wake. These
showers/storms will exit west to east by the overnight with cooler
and drier air moving in as lows drop into the 50s.

Wednesday will be cool and dry compared to recent weather with a
mix of sun and clouds. Lingering trough could bring a few isolated
showers across central NY with otherwise dry weather with highs
mostly in the low to mid 70s. High pressure then builds in for
Wednesday night and Thursday with mainly clear skies. Lows will be
cool Wednesday night - upper 40s to mid 50s with highs Thursday in
the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
215 pm update... A progressive, fairly dry pattern overall, is
likely to continue this period.

An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front are
progged to impact the region Friday into Friday night. As such, we
have chance probabilities (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms.

Thereafter, it appears that we could have another extended stretch
of rain-free weather, with slowly building heights aloft, and
incoming surface high pressure.

Temperatures look fairly seasonable, with highs Friday mostly in
the 80s, dropping back a bit to the upper 70s-lower 80s for the
rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Visible satellite imagery shows clouds clearing across the Poconos
and Catskills on a westerly flow. There were scattered mid clouds
around 5000 to 7000 AGL also moving through central NY. A boundary
has stalled from just east of KSYR southwest to just east of KELM.
The boundary has not reached KITH and it looks stationary on the
KBGM radar loop. South and east of this boundary the winds were
southerly and low-level moisture was more plentiful with dewpoints
in the 60s. West of this boundary dewpoints have fallen into the
50s and the flow was westerly. It looks like winds will die off at
the surface overnight and return to southerly all sites and a few
thousand feet up the winds will remain south to southwest. With
nocturnal cooling expect MVFR ceilings to develop across KAVP-KBGM
with less chance for this farther north and west. KITH will be
close. Time the MVFR to KAVP and KBGM around 06Z. Rest of TAFS
will be VFR.

For Tuesday, mainly VFR in cumulus with a period of thunderstorms
between 17z and 21z KRME, KITH, KSYR and KELM, 18-22z KBGM and
20z-24z KAVP. Expect MVFR vsby and cig at times in thunderstorms.
So have a tempo group in TAFs for these times.

Surface winds will be S-SW at 5 to 10 knots and turn northwest
late in the forecast period except for KAVP.

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.

Friday-Saturday...Although VFR expected much of the time, brief
restrictions with showers/thunderstorms are possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DJN




000
FXUS61 KBGM 272345
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
745 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will be mainly dry but mild and muggy tonight ahead of a
cold front. This front will bring showers and storms to the area
Tuesday then be followed by cooler and drier weather for midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Skies are beginning to clear west to east across the area in the
wake of an initial area of showers that is now located over far
S/E zones as of the mid afternoon. In tha wake of this first area,
destabilization is occurring over Finger Lakes area into Lake
Plain as temperatures are warming with moist conditions in the low
levels. A cold front that will affect tomorrow is still located
upstream over southern Ontario with area in southerly flow. For
the late afternoon into early this evening, first area of showers
will continue to move east and exit S/E portions of the CWA by
this evening. Meanwhile, expect some isolated showers or storms
may form over remaining areas where clearing and destabilization
is occurring.

Mainly quiet weather for tonight as any showers/storms diminish
after sunset. Conditions will be mild and muggy in moist slot ahead
of cold front. Also, the abundant moisture in the lower levels
looks to result in low level stratus formation overnight
especially from NE PA into the southern tier. Lows will be mainly
in the mid 60s.

For Tuesday, severe weather threat looks a little higher based on
the latest suite of model guidance. Early in the day, slow moving
cold front will be near west edge of the CWA and will slowly
advance east. Low stratus should mix out through the morning and
allow for enough destabilization for showers and thunderstorms to
fire along and just east of the front around midday into the early
afternoon (15-18z). This should occur near or just west of the
I-81 corridor. Latest model guidance indicates ML CAPES by this
time of around 700-900 J/kG (GFS) to as high as 2000-2500 J/KG
(NAM). Thus see 1500 J/KG as reasonable along with 40 knots of 0-6
km bulk shear which is what models are showing. Limiting factor
will be weak mid level laps rates under 6.0 C/km due to warm
layer. For this reason, if low level moisture is less than models
show, CAPE aloft will be quite narrow and thin further limiting
severe weather potential. This all said, threat currently high
enough for SPC to upgrade areas from I-81 east to a slight risk
meaning scattered severe storms will be possible. The biggest
threats will be strong winds and small hail. Have some concerns
about heavy rain as well due to slow movement of front and high
PWATs near 1.5 inches so some areas could get a good soaking.
However dry antecedent conditions should limit Flash flood
potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
To start the period, slow moving cold front will be over S/E part
of the CWA where showers/storms will likely still be ongoing while
remaining areas across the Twin Tiers north and west will be
seeing activity come to an end in the front`s wake. These
showers/storms will exit west to east by the overnight with cooler
and drier air moving in as lows drop into the 50s.

Wednesday will be cool and dry compared to recent weather with a
mix of sun and clouds. Lingering trough could bring a few isolated
showers across central NY with otherwise dry weather with highs
mostly in the low to mid 70s. High pressure then builds in for
Wednesday night and Thursday with mainly clear skies. Lows will be
cool Wednesday night - upper 40s to mid 50s with highs Thursday in
the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
215 pm update... A progressive, fairly dry pattern overall, is
likely to continue this period.

An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front are
progged to impact the region Friday into Friday night. As such, we
have chance probabilities (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms.

Thereafter, it appears that we could have another extended stretch
of rain-free weather, with slowly building heights aloft, and
incoming surface high pressure.

Temperatures look fairly seasonable, with highs Friday mostly in
the 80s, dropping back a bit to the upper 70s-lower 80s for the
rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Visible satellite imagery shows clouds clearing across the Poconos
and Catskills on a westerly flow. There were scattered mid clouds
around 5000 to 7000 AGL also moving through central NY. A boundary
has stalled from just east of KSYR southwest to just east of KELM.
The boundary has not reached KITH and it looks stationary on the
KBGM radar loop. South and east of this boundary the winds were
southerly and low-level moisture was more plentiful with dewpoints
in the 60s. West of this boundary dewpoints have fallen into the
50s and the flow was westerly. It looks like winds will die off at
the surface overnight and return to southerly all sites and a few
thousand feet up the winds will remain south to southwest. With
nocturnal cooling expect MVFR ceilings to develop across KAVP-KBGM
with less chance for this farther north and west. KITH will be
close. Time the MVFR to KAVP and KBGM around 06Z. Rest of TAFS
will be VFR.

For Tuesday, mainly VFR in cumulus with a period of thunderstorms
between 17z and 21z KRME, KITH, KSYR and KELM, 18-22z KBGM and
20z-24z KAVP. Expect MVFR vsby and cig at times in thunderstorms.
So have a tempo group in TAFs for these times.

Surface winds will be S-SW at 5 to 10 knots and turn northwest
late in the forecast period except for KAVP.

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.

Friday-Saturday...Although VFR expected much of the time, brief
restrictions with showers/thunderstorms are possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DJN




000
FXUS61 KBTV 272338
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
738 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After a warm and muggy night, a slow moving cold front will move
into the North Country on Tuesday, with widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity expected. The strongest storms will develop from
the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks eastward across Vermont,
with some potentially producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
small hail. Scattered showers linger into Wednesday as an upper
trough swings through, but the end of the work week will see a
return of warm and dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 621 PM EDT Monday...Overall forecast in good shape with
just some very minor tweaks needed. Clouds and precipitation have
quickly exited the area and have decreased these elements in areal
coverage to match current conditions. Otherwise...mid-level heights
fall only slightly tonight and with prevailing south/southwest
winds it should be pretty warm and muggy with lows only ranging
through the 60s to locally 70 at KBTV, and dewpoints holding just
a couple degrees cooler. Can`t rule out some fog in the more
sheltered hollows where winds could decouple, but due to the
expected limited areal coverage have not mentioned it in the
official forecast.

Moving on to Tuesday the forecast remains on track for a busy
afternoon across the North Country with the aforementioned cold
front shifting into the region producing widespread showers and
thunderstorms. We continue to monitor the threat for stronger
storms to develop with several ingredients coming together to
support the idea of some becoming severe along with the potential
for localized flash flooding. Timing is as such that the front
enters into the St. Lawrence Valley mid-morning, with convection
firing out ahead across the northern Adirondacks around 16-18z,
and slowly progressing eastward into the Champlain Valley 18-20z,
and eastern Vermont thereafter. For severe potential, there`s not
one single ingredient that sticks out over another, with modest
MUCAPEs of 1500-2500 J/kg, 0-3km bulk shear around 30kts, and
0-6km shear 40-50kts, but low level moisture will be abundant with
dewpoints well into the 60`s and with increasing mid-level
southwesterlies we`ll likely see a few stronger storms possibly
producing localized damaging winds. Of more concern though is the
threat for some localized flash flooding as a plume of enhanced
PWATs interacts with the boundary and the low/mid level flow
parallels the front supporting some training of storms. We`ll
touch on this more in an upcoming hydro section this afternoon, as
well as in the short term period. Stay tuned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...no huge changes in the forecast. at the
start of tuesday evening, we should have a line of convection
(likely focused across Vermont) that will be pushing slowly east.
looks like a threat for locally heavy rain will continue until
about midnight. model guidance indicates a shortwave that will
move into the region during the early evening. thinking this will
help to increase the coverage of convection. add in some "cell
training", some locally heavy rain is a distinct possibility. see
the hydro section below for a few more details.

wednesday will be quieter than tuesday, however a few showers
across the north are possible. a stronger shortwave will zip
across the region during the day, however low level moisture is
quite limited (precipitable water values well below 1"). will
probably see a few showers develop across the higher terrain, thus
have painted in some 30-40% pops. limited instability, so not
looking for any thunderstorms.

wednesday night will be quiet as weak high pressure starts to
build in. i suppose we could see some areas of river valley fog.

stuck with model guidance blends for temperatures. should average
out close to normal for this time of year. lots of 70s to around
80f for wednesday. generally 50s/close to 60f for overnight lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...initial glance at the upcoming July 4TH
Holiday Weekend indicates pretty decent weather for all the
outdoor activities planned. i think most everyone will be pleased
with that tidbit of information!

12z guidance (GFS & ECMWF) are in relatively good agreement, so
the featured forecast is basically a blend of what we`ve had
previously along with the newest data. some comments on each day:

thursday: should be a fine day with near normal temperatures and
relatively low humidity thanks to high pressure overhead.

friday: upper trough will be moving into the region during the
day. most of the energy is far to our north, but we`ll have
marginal instability and moisture around to trigger a few showers
and t-storms.

saturday: cyclonic flow along with slightly cool temperatures
aloft combined with daytime heating should result in a few
showers, mainly across higher terrain. however for the vast
majority of the region the vast majority of the time it will be
dry with partly sunny skies. temperatures a little below normal,
but still quite comfy.

sunday: looking similar to saturday. a little less low level
moisture, so any showers will be lighter and harder to find. have
only 15-20% chance of rain for the higher terrain. temperatures
will again be just a few degrees below normal, but still comfy.
another "get outside and enjoy it" kind of day.

Monday July 4th: see above.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected
through the period with potential MVFR ceilings at KRUT/KSLK
tomorrow afternoon during period of passing showers. Gusty
surface winds due to passing trof are weakening and will go light
and variable overnight before becoming southerly at 50-10 knots
by mid-day tomorrow. After 12z Tuesday, a slow moving cold front
will bring widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, though
mainly from the Adirondacks eastward and after 17z. Expect periods
of MVFR to IFR visibilities due to heavy showers as they pass over
most stations tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook 00z Wednesday through Saturday...
00z Wednesday through 12z Wednesday...+SHRA/TSRA likely along a
cold frontal passage, with locally strong/severe storms possible
mainly from the Champlain Valley eastward. Brief vsby/cig
reductions to MVFR/IFR possible.
12z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Mainly VFR with chance MVFR
showers.
00z Thursday through 12z Friday...Mainly VFR under high
pressure. Locally dense LIFR fog possible mainly at MPV/SLK 06-12Z
each night.
12z Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR with chance
MVFR showers and thunderstorms along another frontal passage.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
as of 325 pm monday... 12z guidance suite showing some signals
for localized heavy rain tuesday afternoon and evening, primarily
across vermont. with a deep southwest flow forecast to be in
place, the showers/t-storms that will develop won`t make fast
progress to the east. rather, the individual convective cells will
be moving from southwest to northeast within the slow moving line,
and this sets up the possibility for "training" (eg: one after the
other) cells. this type of situation can result in narrow stripes
of heavier precipitation footprints. precipitable water values
will peak somewhere in the order of 1.5 to 1.7", primarily across
vermont. these values aren`t excessive, but indicative of a fairly
moist atmosphere. adding to the ingredient list, models indicate a
short wave will be pushing into the area during the evening. the
NAM and GFS both indicate a blossoming of activity across vermont
between 00z-03z. raw QPF from some of the hi-res models indicate
some spot totals in excess of 1" in an hour or two. flash flood
guidance (FFG) is fairly high, given the relative dryness of late.
but that does not mean we can`t have flooding. 1 hour FFG is
roughly 1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is 2.3-3.0". It might be hard to
see that amount of rain in just 1 hour, but if we`ve got a slow
moving line with repeated cells moving across an area for 3 hours,
that 3 hour FFG is not too hard to achieve. Any flooding would be
localized to small basins. Not expecting enough widespread heavy
rain to have any significant impact on river levels.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 350 PM EDT Monday...A Lake wind advisory will remain in
effect throughout the afternoon and early evening on Monday. Winds
ranging from 15-25 kts are expected to continue for this time
period, and then diminish to below advisory level into the
nighttime hours. Winds could increase again on Tuesday afternoon
as thunderstorms are expected to move through the area. Boaters
should be aware of the potential for scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible near Lake Champlain, some of which could be
strong.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...Lahiff/MV
HYDROLOGY...Nash
MARINE...Follensbee




000
FXUS61 KALY 272322
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
722 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Band of showers is exiting the southern most counties in the next
hour. Much of the Mohawk Valley and Adirondacks have cleared.
Slowing eastward movement of line of showers...residual llvl
moisture...will result in this clearing decelerating...and lower
clouds forming in many areas. Where the western edge of the
clearing sets up later tonight is a bit of a question...as light
winds and a mostly clear sky could help temperatures to fall more
in those clearing areas than areas that stay cloudy.

Surface dew points are rising in areas near the band of rain...but
in western and central NY...where it has cleared...dew points
have fallen due to the mixing going on out there. So...lows around
60 to lower 60s in western and northern areas where the best
chances for some clearing exist...and lows in the mid to upper 60s
in eastern NY and Western New England...where there should be more
clouds and fewer breaks in the clouds. If the clearing line makes
more eastward progress...the forecast will have to be adjusted
through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper energy north of the Great Lakes and the associated cold
front making steady progress east and an axis of instability ahead
of the cold front. Some sun is expected at least in western areas
Tuesday morning...and how far east sees some sun depends on how
the band of clouds over us evolves through the night. Once we
reach convective temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s...most
areas should see more clouds than sun by midday...with showers and
thunderstorms developing over central NY..then tracking through
eastern NY and Western New England in the afternoon through the
evening.

There is a good consensus in guidance that an axis of decent
instability sets up ahead of the cold front...mainly due to
relatively high surface dew points and not so much due to hot
surface temperatures. However...the high dew points over the Great
Lakes to western New York at model initialization time this
morning have mixed out to lower levels this afternoon.
So...surface dew points tomorrow will have a big influence on
severe weather potential...and will make the difference between
700-1000 j/kg CAPES and 1000-2000 j/kg CAPES.

There is a slight risk of severe weather...and as long as dew
points rise and translate into decent instability...initial
thunderstorm updrafts will pulse up strongly...with potential
marginal severe hail and winds. As thunderstorms track east...new
updrafts will again pulse up from time to time with the potential
for brief scattered marginally severe hail and winds.

The low level shear and upper jet/upper dynamics are relatively
weak but there is a decent boundary layer thermal gradient along
the cold front for some frontogenetic convergence. So...putting
the possibility for small hail and gusty winds into the forecast
Tuesday afternoon and evening. There could be some locally heavy
rain...with the relatively weak steering flow...if storms can
train. It has been a bit dry in our region...so any flash flood
threat is very low but will just have to keep an eye out for
training thunderstorms for some localized nuisance ponding of
water in some areas. Highs Tuesday in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Lingering shower activity Tuesday night as winds shift to west and
northwest and by daybreak Wednesday...any isolated showers should
be over eastern NY and New England. The isolated showers supported
by lagging upper energy should exit through the afternoon...with
improving sky cover through the day in all areas. Highs Wednesday
in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Much more sun and dryer weather
Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 80s...but mid to upper
70s in higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers will be exiting the region next hour or so. Overnight,
combination from some rainfall earlier along with higher surface
dewpoints will lead toward lower CIGS and VIS well into MVFR
flight categories. Now if enough breaks in the clouds were to
occur and winds decouple, IFR conditions will be possible with fog
and/or low stratus.

Winds will generally be from the southerly direction around 10 KTS
through this afternoon then drop back to 5KTS or less tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

RH will then increase to between 80 and 100 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Tuesday will be around 50 to 65
percent...then near 100 percent with scattered thunderstorms later
Tuesday afternoon evening. Minimum RH values on Wednesday around
45 to 60 percent.

Southerly winds will be 15 mph or less tonight. Winds on Tuesday
will be south-southwest at 15 mph or less. Winds will shift to
west and northwest by Wednesday at around 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There will be showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Rainfall totals could
reach one third to three quarters of an inch, with some isolated
higher amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light rainfall amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder/NAS
NEAR TERM...Snyder/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/Snyder
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 272322
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
722 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Band of showers is exiting the southern most counties in the next
hour. Much of the Mohawk Valley and Adirondacks have cleared.
Slowing eastward movement of line of showers...residual llvl
moisture...will result in this clearing decelerating...and lower
clouds forming in many areas. Where the western edge of the
clearing sets up later tonight is a bit of a question...as light
winds and a mostly clear sky could help temperatures to fall more
in those clearing areas than areas that stay cloudy.

Surface dew points are rising in areas near the band of rain...but
in western and central NY...where it has cleared...dew points
have fallen due to the mixing going on out there. So...lows around
60 to lower 60s in western and northern areas where the best
chances for some clearing exist...and lows in the mid to upper 60s
in eastern NY and Western New England...where there should be more
clouds and fewer breaks in the clouds. If the clearing line makes
more eastward progress...the forecast will have to be adjusted
through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper energy north of the Great Lakes and the associated cold
front making steady progress east and an axis of instability ahead
of the cold front. Some sun is expected at least in western areas
Tuesday morning...and how far east sees some sun depends on how
the band of clouds over us evolves through the night. Once we
reach convective temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s...most
areas should see more clouds than sun by midday...with showers and
thunderstorms developing over central NY..then tracking through
eastern NY and Western New England in the afternoon through the
evening.

There is a good consensus in guidance that an axis of decent
instability sets up ahead of the cold front...mainly due to
relatively high surface dew points and not so much due to hot
surface temperatures. However...the high dew points over the Great
Lakes to western New York at model initialization time this
morning have mixed out to lower levels this afternoon.
So...surface dew points tomorrow will have a big influence on
severe weather potential...and will make the difference between
700-1000 j/kg CAPES and 1000-2000 j/kg CAPES.

There is a slight risk of severe weather...and as long as dew
points rise and translate into decent instability...initial
thunderstorm updrafts will pulse up strongly...with potential
marginal severe hail and winds. As thunderstorms track east...new
updrafts will again pulse up from time to time with the potential
for brief scattered marginally severe hail and winds.

The low level shear and upper jet/upper dynamics are relatively
weak but there is a decent boundary layer thermal gradient along
the cold front for some frontogenetic convergence. So...putting
the possibility for small hail and gusty winds into the forecast
Tuesday afternoon and evening. There could be some locally heavy
rain...with the relatively weak steering flow...if storms can
train. It has been a bit dry in our region...so any flash flood
threat is very low but will just have to keep an eye out for
training thunderstorms for some localized nuisance ponding of
water in some areas. Highs Tuesday in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Lingering shower activity Tuesday night as winds shift to west and
northwest and by daybreak Wednesday...any isolated showers should
be over eastern NY and New England. The isolated showers supported
by lagging upper energy should exit through the afternoon...with
improving sky cover through the day in all areas. Highs Wednesday
in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Much more sun and dryer weather
Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 80s...but mid to upper
70s in higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers will be exiting the region next hour or so. Overnight,
combination from some rainfall earlier along with higher surface
dewpoints will lead toward lower CIGS and VIS well into MVFR
flight categories. Now if enough breaks in the clouds were to
occur and winds decouple, IFR conditions will be possible with fog
and/or low stratus.

Winds will generally be from the southerly direction around 10 KTS
through this afternoon then drop back to 5KTS or less tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

RH will then increase to between 80 and 100 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Tuesday will be around 50 to 65
percent...then near 100 percent with scattered thunderstorms later
Tuesday afternoon evening. Minimum RH values on Wednesday around
45 to 60 percent.

Southerly winds will be 15 mph or less tonight. Winds on Tuesday
will be south-southwest at 15 mph or less. Winds will shift to
west and northwest by Wednesday at around 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There will be showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Rainfall totals could
reach one third to three quarters of an inch, with some isolated
higher amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light rainfall amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder/NAS
NEAR TERM...Snyder/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/Snyder
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 272321
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
721 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the region tonight with a chance of showers
and possibly an isolated thunderstorm through Tuesday. Then
surface high pressure will build across the Lower Great Lakes
region with generally fair and seasonable weather on Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak, moisture starved cold front will move across the region
after midnight...with legitimately cooler air slowly making its way
across the Lower Great Lakes. The more comfortable airmass will not
be fully `appreciated` until after daybreak though, as temperatures
overnight will only drop off into the low to mid 60s for most areas.
Tuesday, there will also be a threat of a few showers and possibly
an isolated thunderstorm especially inland and away from the
stabilizing influence of the lakes. SPC has issued a Marginal threat
for severe thunderstorms further to the east of lake Ontario but
it`s likely that the lake breeze will help to suppress thunderstorm
development in this area. Highs on Wednesday will be much cooler and
comfortable with 70s expected across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On Tuesday night a closed 500 mb low will track north of Lake
Ontario with its trough axis forecast to slowly move across our
region. Although this will be fairly strong feature, it will pass
overnight with no diurnal instability. As a result, expect the areal
coverage of showers to be spotty at best with little rainfall in
most areas to help with dry soil conditions. Cloud cover will limit
radiational cooling, but the cold air mass will still support lows
averaging in the lower to mid 50s.

On Wednesday the trough axis will slowly move from eastern New York
into New England. Due to the closer proximity of the trough there
maybe some showers across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Any
showers would be along or inland of the lake breeze which will
extend northeast of Lake Ontario. This is in line with a consensus
of guidance which has light convectively driven QPF in this region.
There will be limited instability here but with cool air aloft an
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Otherwise the rest of the
area will see a mix of sun and clouds as low level moisture
initially forces diurnal cumulus to develop inland from the lakes
before mixing out later in the day. Temperatures will remain just a
tad below average with highs in the mid 70s at lower elevations and
around 70 across higher terrain.

Dry weather will return after this, with high pressure forecast to
build across the Ohio valley Wednesday and then shift across the
lower Great Lakes through Thursday night. This will result in fair
weather and mostly clear skies throughout the period. Temperatures
on Thursday will be seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be on the cool side, especially Wednesday
night when temperatures in the Southern Tier valleys are expected to
drop into the mid to upper 40s. Temperature forecasts reflect a
slightly wider diurnal temperature swing than consensus guidance due
to the dry airmass influenced by high pressure.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Friday a mid level trough will pass across the region, with a weak
cold front passing across WNY and CNY. We will continue with low
chance pops along this front due to the frontal passage and
favorable dynamics aloft, despite moisture fields that are not
overly impressive.

Saturday through Monday, July 4th, surface high pressure will slide
from the Western Great Lakes region to the Eastern Great Lakes
region. A mean long wave trough aloft will limit the warming
associated with this surface high. Afternoon temperatures will warm
from the mid 70s Friday, to the lower 80s by Monday. There may be a
stray shower east of Lake Ontario Saturday with the presence of the
upper level low...otherwise mostly sunny skies and dry weather will
prevail through the weekend, with comfortable dewpoints.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front will move across the forecast area after 05z which
will bring lowering CIGS and possibly brief MVFR conditions with
any showers activity. Otherwise, on Tuesday expect mainly VFR
conditions with a chance of showers or an isolated thunderstorm.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight, A weak cold front will cross the region with a chance of a
few showers. Behind the cold front, northwesterly winds pick up
during the midday and especially in the afternoon on Tuesday. This
will likely allow for some choppy waters east of Braddock Bay, but
below small craft advisory levels.

Surface High pressure will then build across the Lower Great Lakes
Wednesday and remain over the region through Thursday with light
winds and minimal waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR/LEVAN/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...AR/LEVAN/TMA
MARINE...AR/LEVAN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 272321
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
721 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the region tonight with a chance of showers
and possibly an isolated thunderstorm through Tuesday. Then
surface high pressure will build across the Lower Great Lakes
region with generally fair and seasonable weather on Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak, moisture starved cold front will move across the region
after midnight...with legitimately cooler air slowly making its way
across the Lower Great Lakes. The more comfortable airmass will not
be fully `appreciated` until after daybreak though, as temperatures
overnight will only drop off into the low to mid 60s for most areas.
Tuesday, there will also be a threat of a few showers and possibly
an isolated thunderstorm especially inland and away from the
stabilizing influence of the lakes. SPC has issued a Marginal threat
for severe thunderstorms further to the east of lake Ontario but
it`s likely that the lake breeze will help to suppress thunderstorm
development in this area. Highs on Wednesday will be much cooler and
comfortable with 70s expected across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On Tuesday night a closed 500 mb low will track north of Lake
Ontario with its trough axis forecast to slowly move across our
region. Although this will be fairly strong feature, it will pass
overnight with no diurnal instability. As a result, expect the areal
coverage of showers to be spotty at best with little rainfall in
most areas to help with dry soil conditions. Cloud cover will limit
radiational cooling, but the cold air mass will still support lows
averaging in the lower to mid 50s.

On Wednesday the trough axis will slowly move from eastern New York
into New England. Due to the closer proximity of the trough there
maybe some showers across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Any
showers would be along or inland of the lake breeze which will
extend northeast of Lake Ontario. This is in line with a consensus
of guidance which has light convectively driven QPF in this region.
There will be limited instability here but with cool air aloft an
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Otherwise the rest of the
area will see a mix of sun and clouds as low level moisture
initially forces diurnal cumulus to develop inland from the lakes
before mixing out later in the day. Temperatures will remain just a
tad below average with highs in the mid 70s at lower elevations and
around 70 across higher terrain.

Dry weather will return after this, with high pressure forecast to
build across the Ohio valley Wednesday and then shift across the
lower Great Lakes through Thursday night. This will result in fair
weather and mostly clear skies throughout the period. Temperatures
on Thursday will be seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be on the cool side, especially Wednesday
night when temperatures in the Southern Tier valleys are expected to
drop into the mid to upper 40s. Temperature forecasts reflect a
slightly wider diurnal temperature swing than consensus guidance due
to the dry airmass influenced by high pressure.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Friday a mid level trough will pass across the region, with a weak
cold front passing across WNY and CNY. We will continue with low
chance pops along this front due to the frontal passage and
favorable dynamics aloft, despite moisture fields that are not
overly impressive.

Saturday through Monday, July 4th, surface high pressure will slide
from the Western Great Lakes region to the Eastern Great Lakes
region. A mean long wave trough aloft will limit the warming
associated with this surface high. Afternoon temperatures will warm
from the mid 70s Friday, to the lower 80s by Monday. There may be a
stray shower east of Lake Ontario Saturday with the presence of the
upper level low...otherwise mostly sunny skies and dry weather will
prevail through the weekend, with comfortable dewpoints.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front will move across the forecast area after 05z which
will bring lowering CIGS and possibly brief MVFR conditions with
any showers activity. Otherwise, on Tuesday expect mainly VFR
conditions with a chance of showers or an isolated thunderstorm.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight, A weak cold front will cross the region with a chance of a
few showers. Behind the cold front, northwesterly winds pick up
during the midday and especially in the afternoon on Tuesday. This
will likely allow for some choppy waters east of Braddock Bay, but
below small craft advisory levels.

Surface High pressure will then build across the Lower Great Lakes
Wednesday and remain over the region through Thursday with light
winds and minimal waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR/LEVAN/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...AR/LEVAN/TMA
MARINE...AR/LEVAN




000
FXUS61 KOKX 272235
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
635 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough moves across the region tonight. A cold front
approaches Tuesday and moves into the area Tuesday night, and
through the area Wednesday. The front moves farther offshore
Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through
Friday. Another cold front then approaches and passes through late
Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the
front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A weak surface trough moves into the area this evening and late
tonight while slowly dissipating. Heights continue to fall slowly
as a long wave upper trough moves into the Great Lakes region.
Weak lift is accompanying the trough with little surface or mixed
layer CAPE. Also, instability is minimal with the best instability
across the lower Hudson Valley. So will not mention any thunder
tonight. As the area of showers moves farther to the east and
south through tonight, expect coverage to decrease. So, begin with
likely pops mainly across the western zones and lower to slight
chance late tonight. With increased low level moisture and a
southerly flow a marine layer will be in place. Stratus was
developing during the afternoon, and will become widespread
tonight.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic Ocean beaches through early this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The longwave upper trough continues to dig into the eastern states
Tuesday and Tuesday night with additional energy rotating through
the trough. By 12Z Wednesday the trough axis still remains to the
west, through the eastern Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley.
Gulf of Mexico moisture is drawn up into the area through the
period with increasing low and mid level moisture. A more stable
marine layer remains in place and will limit the threat of
thunderstorms. However, inland instability increases Tuesday
afternoon and into the evening. Cape will be limited, however, a
few stronger thunderstorms will be possible, especially across the
lower Hudson Valley. The storm prediction center has a slight risk
area into portions of Orange county, but will not mention any
enhanced wording at this time as the better chances for the
stronger storms will be to the west.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front will likely be over the eastern zones Wednesday
morning. It will slowly push offshore through the day as it
dissipates. Its eastward progression could be slowed down by a weak
wave of low pressure attempting to form along the front. Thinking is
that chances of showers and thunderstorms will be primarily over the
eastern zones during the morning. Then in the afternoon and early
evening, PVA and destabilization could bring a shower or storm to
the rest of the forecast area.

High pressure brings dry weather on Thursday and Thursday night. For
Friday, a pre-frontal trough brings low chances of showers and
storms. The trailing cold front moves in Friday night, when
overall better chances occur.

It appears that this cold front will be slow to push offshore, so
low chances of showers and storms have been left in for eastern
sections Saturday morning. The front eventually sags to the south as
the upper flow aloft becomes more cyclonic Saturday night into
Sunday. ECMWF, which has been a northern outlier with a wave of low
pressure forming along the front, has trended farther south/drier
with this feature and associated precipitation. Will still leave in a
slight chance for the southern zones for this period until
confidence in dry weather increases further. High pressure otherwise
builds in from the northwest on Monday with dry conditions.

Temperatures through the long term period will be generally near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak low pressure trough will approach tonight, then a cold
front will approach on Tuesday.

* S flow late this afternoon just about at its expected peak, up
  to 30 kt at KJFK, 25 kt at KLGA/KISP, and 15-18 kt most
  elsewhere.

* Low clouds likely to move in quickly this evening at coastal
  terminals, with MVFR cigs to start, then IFR overnight. MVFR
  cigs expected north/west of there overnight except for KSWF, but
  timing north/west is uncertain, since those areas will be
  shielded from direct marine influence initially in southerly
  flow.

* Cigs should lift to MVFR by about 14Z-15Z.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: A brief gust just over 30 kt possible late this
afternoon. Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR cigs tonight still
a little uncertain.

KLGA TAF Comments: A brief gust just over 25 kt possible late this
afternoon. Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain,
and could occur later than forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional G15-18KT late this afternoon.
Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain, and could
occur later than forecast.

KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional G15-18KT late this afternoon.
Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain, and could
occur later than forecast.

KHPN TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still a
little uncertain.

KISP TAF Comments: A brief gust just over 25 kt possible late this
afternoon. Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR cigs tonight still
a little uncertain.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers/tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR or IFR or lower conditions possible via morning
fog/low clouds and showers/tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak surface trough moves through the waters tonight with the
chance of scattered showers. A cold front approaches Tuesday and
moves into the waters Tuesday night and east Wednesday. Southerly
winds will precede the cold frontal passage and occasional gusts
on the ocean waters may approach small craft levels into early
this evening and Tuesday, especially west of Fire Island Inlet.
Otherwise winds and seas will remain below advisory levels tonight
through Tuesday night.

The pressure gradient is expected to remain rather weak through the
rest of the forecast period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET




000
FXUS61 KBTV 272221
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
621 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After a warm and muggy night, a slow moving cold front will move
into the North Country on Tuesday, with widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity expected. The strongest storms will develop from
the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks eastward across Vermont,
with some potentially producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
small hail. Scattered showers linger into Wednesday as an upper
trough swings through, but the end of the work week will see a
return of warm and dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 621 PM EDT Monday...Overall forecast in good shape with
just some very minor tweaks needed. Clouds and precipitation have
quickly exited the area and have decreased these elements in areal
coverage to match current conditions. Otherwise...mid-level heights
fall only slightly tonight and with prevailing south/southwest
winds it should be pretty warm and muggy with lows only ranging
through the 60s to locally 70 at KBTV, and dewpoints holding just
a couple degrees cooler. Can`t rule out some fog in the more
sheltered hollows where winds could decouple, but due to the
expected limited areal coverage have not mentioned it in the
official forecast.

Moving on to Tuesday the forecast remains on track for a busy
afternoon across the North Country with the aforementioned cold
front shifting into the region producing widespread showers and
thunderstorms. We continue to monitor the threat for stronger
storms to develop with several ingredients coming together to
support the idea of some becoming severe along with the potential
for localized flash flooding. Timing is as such that the front
enters into the St. Lawrence Valley mid-morning, with convection
firing out ahead across the northern Adirondacks around 16-18z,
and slowly progressing eastward into the Champlain Valley 18-20z,
and eastern Vermont thereafter. For severe potential, there`s not
one single ingredient that sticks out over another, with modest
MUCAPEs of 1500-2500 J/kg, 0-3km bulk shear around 30kts, and
0-6km shear 40-50kts, but low level moisture will be abundant with
dewpoints well into the 60`s and with increasing mid-level
southwesterlies we`ll likely see a few stronger storms possibly
producing localized damaging winds. Of more concern though is the
threat for some localized flash flooding as a plume of enhanced
PWATs interacts with the boundary and the low/mid level flow
parallels the front supporting some training of storms. We`ll
touch on this more in an upcoming hydro section this afternoon, as
well as in the short term period. Stay tuned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...no huge changes in the forecast. at the
start of tuesday evening, we should have a line of convection
(likely focused across Vermont) that will be pushing slowly east.
looks like a threat for locally heavy rain will continue until
about midnight. model guidance indicates a shortwave that will
move into the region during the early evening. thinking this will
help to increase the coverage of convection. add in some "cell
training", some locally heavy rain is a distinct possibility. see
the hydro section below for a few more details.

wednesday will be quieter than tuesday, however a few showers
across the north are possible. a stronger shortwave will zip
across the region during the day, however low level moisture is
quite limited (precipitable water values well below 1"). will
probably see a few showers develop across the higher terrain, thus
have painted in some 30-40% pops. limited instability, so not
looking for any thunderstorms.

wednesday night will be quiet as weak high pressure starts to
build in. i suppose we could see some areas of river valley fog.

stuck with model guidance blends for temperatures. should average
out close to normal for this time of year. lots of 70s to around
80f for wednesday. generally 50s/close to 60f for overnight lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...initial glance at the upcoming July 4TH
Holiday Weekend indicates pretty decent weather for all the
outdoor activities planned. i think most everyone will be pleased
with that tidbit of information!

12z guidance (GFS & ECMWF) are in relatively good agreement, so
the featured forecast is basically a blend of what we`ve had
previously along with the newest data. some comments on each day:

thursday: should be a fine day with near normal temperatures and
relatively low humidity thanks to high pressure overhead.

friday: upper trough will be moving into the region during the
day. most of the energy is far to our north, but we`ll have
marginal instability and moisture around to trigger a few showers
and t-storms.

saturday: cyclonic flow along with slightly cool temperatures
aloft combined with daytime heating should result in a few
showers, mainly across higher terrain. however for the vast
majority of the region the vast majority of the time it will be
dry with partly sunny skies. temperatures a little below normal,
but still quite comfy.

sunday: looking similar to saturday. a little less low level
moisture, so any showers will be lighter and harder to find. have
only 15-20% chance of rain for the higher terrain. temperatures
will again be just a few degrees below normal, but still comfy.
another "get outside and enjoy it" kind of day.

Monday July 4th: see above.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through
the period with isolated MVFR currently at KMSS/KSLK persisting
for a couple more hours before lifting to VFR. Surface trough
moving through the area this afternoon continues to provide
locally gusty winds up to 25kts along with some isolated to
scattered showers, but as we progress into the evening and
overnight hours this activity will dissipate with winds abating
and ceilings lifting to a FEW-SCT cirrus deck. After 12z Tuesday,
a slow moving cold front will bring widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms, though mainly from the Adirondacks eastward and
after 17z.

Outlook 18z Tuesday through Saturday...
18z Tuesday through 12z Wednesday...+SHRA/TSRA likely along a cold
frontal passage, with locally strong/severe storms possible mainly
from the Champlain Valley eastward. Brief vsby/cig reductions to
MVFR/IFR possible.
12z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Mainly VFR with chance MVFR
showers.
00z Thursday through 12z Friday...Mainly VFR under high pressure.
Locally dense LIFR fog possible mainly at MPV/SLK 06-12Z each
night.
12z Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR with chance MVFR showers
and thunderstorms along another frontal passage.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
as of 325 pm monday... 12z guidance suite showing some signals
for localized heavy rain tuesday afternoon and evening, primarily
across vermont. with a deep southwest flow forecast to be in
place, the showers/t-storms that will develop won`t make fast
progress to the east. rather, the individual convective cells will
be moving from southwest to northeast within the slow moving line,
and this sets up the possibility for "training" (eg: one after the
other) cells. this type of situation can result in narrow stripes
of heavier precipitation footprints. precipitable water values
will peak somewhere in the order of 1.5 to 1.7", primarily across
vermont. these values aren`t excessive, but indicative of a fairly
moist atmosphere. adding to the ingredient list, models indicate a
short wave will be pushing into the area during the evening. the
NAM and GFS both indicate a blossoming of activity across vermont
between 00z-03z. raw QPF from some of the hi-res models indicate
some spot totals in excess of 1" in an hour or two. flash flood
guidance (FFG) is fairly high, given the relative dryness of late.
but that does not mean we can`t have flooding. 1 hour FFG is
roughly 1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is 2.3-3.0". It might be hard to
see that amount of rain in just 1 hour, but if we`ve got a slow
moving line with repeated cells moving across an area for 3 hours,
that 3 hour FFG is not too hard to achieve. Any flooding would be
localized to small basins. Not expecting enough widespread heavy
rain to have any significant impact on river levels.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 350 PM EDT Monday...A Lake wind advisory will remain in
effect throughout the afternoon and early evening on Monday. Winds
ranging from 15-25 kts are expected to continue for this time
period, and then diminish to below advisory level into the
nighttime hours. Winds could increase again on Tuesday afternoon
as thunderstorms are expected to move through the area. Boaters
should be aware of the potential for scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible near Lake Champlain, some of which could be
strong.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...Lahiff
HYDROLOGY...Nash
MARINE...Follensbee




000
FXUS61 KALY 272033
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
433 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Band of showers...with some isolated thunderstorms in the eastern
Catskills and mid Hudson Valley...will be exiting through this
evening. There is a line of clearing into central NY with a clear
to mostly clear sky through much of the Great Lakes and OH valley.

There are indications in guidance that the showers will weaken
and decrease in coverage as they track into New England and the
band of clouds will in a sense stall because of convergence on the
western periphery of offshore upper energy. Where the western edge
of the clearing sets up later tonight is a bit of a question...as
light winds and a mostly clear sky could help temperatures to fall
more in those clearing areas than areas that stay cloudy.

Surface dew points are rising in areas near the band of rain...but
in western and central NY...where it has cleared...dew points
have fallen due to the mixing going on out there. So...lows around
60 to lower 60s in western and northern areas where the best
chances for some clearing exist...and lows in the mid to upper 60s
in eastern NY and Western New England...where there should be more
clouds and fewer breaks in the clouds. If the clearing line makes
more eastward progress...the forecast will have to be adjusted
through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper energy north of the Great Lakes and the associated cold
front making steady progress east and an axis of instability ahead
of the cold front. Some sun is expected at least in western areas
Tuesday morning...and how far east sees some sun depends on how
the band of clouds over us evolves through the night. Once we
reach convective temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s...most
areas should see more clouds than sun by midday...with showers and
thunderstorms developing over central NY..then tracking through
eastern NY and Western New England in the afternoon through the
evening.

There is a good consensus in guidance that an axis of decent
instability sets up ahead of the cold front...mainly due to
relatively high surface dew points and not so much due to hot
surface temperatures. However...the high dew points over the Great
Lakes to western New York at model initialization time this
morning have mixed out to lower levels this afternoon.
So...surface dew points tomorrow will have a big influence on
severe weather potential...and will make the difference between
700-1000 j/kg CAPES and 1000-2000 j/kg CAPES.

There is a slight risk of severe weather...and as long as dew
points rise and translate into decent instability...initial
thunderstorm updrafts will pulse up strongly...with potential
marginal severe hail and winds. As thunderstorms track east...new
updrafts will again pulse up from time to time with the potential
for brief scattered marginally severe hail and winds.

The low level shear and upper jet/upper dynamics are relatively
weak but there is a decent boundary layer thermal gradient along
the cold front for some frontogenetic convergence. So...putting
the possibility for small hail and gusty winds into the forecast
Tuesday afternoon and evening. There could be some locally heavy
rain...with the relatively weak steering flow...if storms can
train. It has been a bit dry in our region...so any flash flood
threat is very low but will just have to keep an eye out for
training thunderstorms for some localized nuisance ponding of
water in some areas. Highs Tuesday in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Lingering shower activity Tuesday night as winds shift to west and
northwest and by daybreak Wednesday...any isolated showers should
be over eastern NY and New England. The isolated showers supported
by lagging upper energy should exit through the afternoon...with
improving sky cover through the day in all areas. Highs Wednesday
in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Much more sun and dryer weather
Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 80s...but mid to upper
70s in higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Band of showers was progressing across eastern New York yet flight
conditions remain VFR. In the wake of these showers the CIGS lower
a bit toward MVFR which seems this trend will continue into this
evening. Later tonight, combination from some rainfall earlier
along with higher surface dewpoints will lead toward lower CIGS
and VIS well into MVFR flight categories. Now if enough breaks in
the clouds were to occur and winds decouple, IFR conditions will
be possible with fog and/or low stratus.

Winds will generally be from the southerly direction around 10 KTS
through this afternoon then drop back to 5KTS or less tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

RH will then increase to between 80 and 100 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Tuesday will be around 50 to 65
percent...then near 100 percent with scattered thunderstorms later
Tuesday afternoon evening. Minimum RH values on Wednesday around
45 to 60 percent.

Southerly winds will be 15 mph or less tonight. Winds on Tuesday
will be south-southwest at 15 mph or less. Winds will shift to
west and northwest by Wednesday at around 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There will be showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Rainfall totals could
reach one third to three quarters of an inch, with some isolated
higher amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light rainfall amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 272029
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
429 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Band of showers...with some isolated thunderstorms in the eastern
Catskills and mid Hudson Valley...will be exiting through this
evening. There is a line of clearing into central NY with a clear
to mostly clear sky through much of the Great Lakes and OH valley.

There are indications in guidance that the showers will weaken
and decrease in coverage as they track into New England and the
band of clouds will in a sense stall because of convergence on the
western periphery of offshore upper energy. Where the western edge
of the clearing sets up later tonight is a bit of a question...as
light winds and a mostly clear sky could help temperatures to fall
more in those clearing areas than areas that stay cloudy.

Surface dew points are rising in areas near the band of rain...but
in western and central NY...where it has cleared...dew points
have fallen due to the mixing going on out there. So...lows around
60 to lower 60s in western and northern areas where the best
chances for some clearing exist...and lows in the mid to upper 60s
in eastern NY and Western New England...where there should be more
clouds and fewer breaks in the clouds. If the clearing line makes
more eastward progress...the forecast will have to be adjusted
through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper energy north of the Great Lakes and the associated cold
front making steady progress east and an axis of instability ahead
of the cold front. Some sun is expected at least in western areas
Tuesday morning...and how far east sees some sun depends on how
the band of clouds over us evolves through the night. Once we
reach convective temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s...most
areas should see more clouds than sun by midday...with showers and
thunderstorms developing over central NY..then tracking through
eastern NY and Western New England in the afternoon through the
evening.

There is a good consensus in guidance that an axis of decent
instability sets up ahead of the cold front...mainly due to
relatively high surface dew points and not so much due to hot
surface temperatures. However...the high dew points over the Great
Lakes to western New York at model initialization time this
morning have mixed out to lower levels this afternoon.
So...surface dew points tomorrow will have a big influence on
severe weather potential...and will make the difference between
700-1000 j/kg CAPES and 1000-2000 j/kg CAPES.

There is a slight risk of severe weather...and as long as dew
points rise and translate into decent instability...initial
thunderstorm updrafts will pulse up strongly...with potential
marginal severe hail and winds. As thunderstorms track east...new
updrafts will again pulse up from time to time with the potential
for brief scattered marginally severe hail and winds.

The low level shear and upper jet/upper dynamics are relatively
weak but there is a decent boundary layer thermal gradient along
the cold front for some frontogenetic convergence. So...putting
the possibility for small hail and gusty winds into the forecast
Tuesday afternoon and evening. There could be some locally heavy
rain...with the relatively weak steering flow...if storms can
train. It has been a bit dry in our region...so any flash flood
threat is very low but will just have to keep an eye out for
training thunderstorms for some localized nuisance ponding of
water in some areas. Highs Tuesday in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Lingering shower activity Tuesday night as winds shift to west and
northwest and by daybreak Wednesday...any isolated showers should
be over eastern NY and New England. The isolated showers supported
by lagging upper energy should exit through the afternoon...with
improving sky cover through the day in all areas. Highs Wednesday
in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Much more sun and dryer weather
Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 80s...but mid to upper
70s in higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change from the previous long term forecast package as a
rather persistent northwest flow regime will reestablish itself
heading into the holiday weekend.

We begin the period with a surface ridge and southwest flow regime
aloft with warm and a bit humid conditions ahead of a cold front
approaching the Great Lakes region.  Global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic pattern as we will retain the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast heading into Friday.

The passage of the cold front will usher in a bit cooler but
noticeably drier air mass for the weekend with mainly dry conditions.
There are some hints of a weak wave moving southeast toward the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondack Park on Sunday where we will place a
slight chance wording.

Highs will generally range between 75-85F and overnight lows mainly
into the 50s.

A quick look into Independence Holiday forecast, dry and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Band of showers was progressing across eastern New York yet flight
conditions remain VFR. In the wake of these showers the CIGS lower
a bit toward MVFR which seems this trend will continue into this
evening. Later tonight, combination from some rainfall earlier
along with higher surface dewpoints will lead toward lower CIGS
and VIS well into MVFR flight categories. Now if enough breaks in
the clouds were to occur and winds decouple, IFR conditions will
be possible with fog and/or low stratus.

Winds will generally be from the southerly direction around 10 KTS
through this afternoon then drop back to 5KTS or less tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak front will exit the region tonight. A stronger cold front
will track through our region Tuesday afternoon and night.
Isolated showers are expected tonight with more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will
then build in from the Midwest through the day Wednesday, with dry
weather returning through the end of the week.

RH will then increase to between 80 and 100 percent tonight.
Minimum RH values on Tuesday will be around 50 to 65
percent...then near 100 percent with scattered thunderstorms later
Tuesday afternoon evening. Minimum RH values on Wednesday around
45to 60 percent.

Southerly winds will be 15 mph or less tonight. Winds on Tuesday
will be south-southwest at 15 mph or less. Winds will shift to
west and northwest by Wednesday at around 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There will be showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Rainfall totals could
reach one third to three quarters of an inch, with some isolated
higher amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light rainfall amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271951
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
351 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After a warm and muggy night, a slow moving cold front will move
into the North Country on Tuesday, with widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity expected. The strongest storms will develop from
the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks eastward across Vermont,
with some potentially producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
small hail. Scattered showers linger into Wednesday as an upper
trough swings through, but the end of the work week will see a
return of warm and dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Monday...Weak pre-frontal trough moving through
the North Country this afternoon continues to produce some locally
gusty winds along with isolated to scattered light rain showers.
Really not much impact though as reported rainfall amounts are
only a couple of hundredths, so keep those afternoon activities on
your daily planner. For tonight, any lingering showers and clouds
exit to our east as a mid-level dry slot builds into the forecast
area ahead of a cold front well upstream of the region,
approaching the Ottawa valley toward daybreak. Even though we`ll
see some clearing overnight, mid-level heights fall only slightly
and with prevailing south/southwest winds it should be pretty warm
and muggy with lows only ranging through the 60s to locally 70 at
KBTV, and dewpoints holding just a couple degrees cooler. Can`t
rule out some fog in the more sheltered hollows where winds could
decouple, but due to the expected limited areal coverage have not
mentioned it in the official forecast.

Moving on to Tuesday the forecast remains on track for a busy
afternoon across the North Country with the aforementioned cold
front shifting into the region producing widespread showers and
thunderstorms. We continue to monitor the threat for stronger
storms to develop with several ingredients coming together to
support the idea of some becoming severe along with the potential
for localized flash flooding. Timing is as such that the front
enters into the St. Lawrence Valley mid-morning, with convection
firing out ahead across the northern Adirondacks around 16-18z,
and slowly progressing eastward into the Champlain Valley 18-20z,
and eastern Vermont thereafter. For severe potential, there`s not
one single ingredient that sticks out over another, with modest
MUCAPEs of 1500-2500 J/kg, 0-3km bulk shear around 30kts, and
0-6km shear 40-50kts, but low level moisture will be abundant with
dewpoints well into the 60`s and with increasing mid-level
southwesterlies we`ll likely see a few stronger storms possibly
producing localized damaging winds. Of more concern though is the
threat for some localized flash flooding as a plume of enhanced
PWATs interacts with the boundary and the low/mid level flow
parallels the front supporting some training of storms. We`ll
touch on this more in an upcoming hydro section this afternoon, as
well as in the short term period. Stay tuned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...no huge changes in the forecast. at the
start of tuesday evening, we should have a line of convection
(likely focused across Vermont) that will be pushing slowly east.
looks like a threat for locally heavy rain will continue until
about midnight. model guidance indicates a shortwave that will
move into the region during the early evening. thinking this will
help to increase the coverage of convection. add in some "cell
training", some locally heavy rain is a distinct possibility. see
the hydro section below for a few more details.

wednesday will be quieter than tuesday, however a few showers
across the north are possible. a stronger shortwave will zip
across the region during the day, however low level moisture is
quite limited (precipitable water values well below 1"). will
probably see a few showers develop across the higher terrain, thus
have painted in some 30-40% pops. limited instability, so not
looking for any thunderstorms.

wednesday night will be quiet as weak high pressure starts to
build in. i suppose we could see some areas of river valley fog.

stuck with model guidance blends for temperatures. should average
out close to normal for this time of year. lots of 70s to around
80f for wednesday. generally 50s/close to 60f for overnight lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...initial glance at the upcoming July 4TH
Holiday Weekend indicates pretty decent weather for all the
outdoor activities planned. i think most everyone will be pleased
with that tidbit of information!

12z guidance (GFS & ECMWF) are in relatively good agreement, so
the featured forecast is basically a blend of what we`ve had
previously along with the newest data. some comments on each day:

thursday: should be a fine day with near normal temperatures and
relatively low humidity thanks to high pressure overhead.

friday: upper trough will be moving into the region during the
day. most of the energy is far to our north, but we`ll have
marginal instability and moisture around to trigger a few showers
and t-storms.

saturday: cyclonic flow along with slightly cool temperatures
aloft combined with daytime heating should result in a few
showers, mainly across higher terrain. however for the vast
majority of the region the vast majority of the time it will be
dry with partly sunny skies. temperatures a little below normal,
but still quite comfy.

sunday: looking similar to saturday. a little less low level
moisture, so any showers will be lighter and harder to find. have
only 15-20% chance of rain for the higher terrain. temperatures
will again be just a few degrees below normal, but still comfy.
another "get outside and enjoy it" kind of day.

Monday July 4th: see above.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through
the period with isolated MVFR currently at KMSS/KSLK persisting
for a couple more hours before lifting to VFR. Surface trough
moving through the area this afternoon continues to provide
locally gusty winds up to 25kts along with some isolated to
scattered showers, but as we progress into the evening and
overnight hours this activity will dissipate with winds abating
and ceilings lifting to a FEW-SCT cirrus deck. After 12z Tuesday,
a slow moving cold front will bring widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms, though mainly from the Adirondacks eastward and
after 17z.

Outlook 18z Tuesday through Saturday...
18z Tuesday through 12z Wednesday...+SHRA/TSRA likely along a cold
frontal passage, with locally strong/severe storms possible mainly
from the Champlain Valley eastward. Brief vsby/cig reductions to
MVFR/IFR possible.
12z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Mainly VFR with chance MVFR
showers.
00z Thursday through 12z Friday...Mainly VFR under high pressure.
Locally dense LIFR fog possible mainly at MPV/SLK 06-12Z each
night.
12z Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR with chance MVFR showers
and thunderstorms along another frontal passage.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
as of 325 pm monday... 12z guidance suite showing some signals
for localized heavy rain tuesday afternoon and evening, primarily
across vermont. with a deep southwest flow forecast to be in
place, the showers/t-storms that will develop won`t make fast
progress to the east. rather, the individual convective cells will
be moving from southwest to northeast within the slow moving line,
and this sets up the possibility for "training" (eg: one after the
other) cells. this type of situation can result in narrow stripes
of heavier precipitation footprints. precipitable water values
will peak somewhere in the order of 1.5 to 1.7", primarily across
vermont. these values aren`t excessive, but indicative of a fairly
moist atmosphere. adding to the ingredient list, models indicate a
short wave will be pushing into the area during the evening. the
NAM and GFS both indicate a blossoming of activity across vermont
between 00z-03z. raw QPF from some of the hi-res models indicate
some spot totals in excess of 1" in an hour or two. flash flood
guidance (FFG) is fairly high, given the relative dryness of late.
but that does not mean we can`t have flooding. 1 hour FFG is
roughly 1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is 2.3-3.0". It might be hard to
see that amount of rain in just 1 hour, but if we`ve got a slow
moving line with repeated cells moving across an area for 3 hours,
that 3 hour FFG is not too hard to achieve. Any flooding would be
localized to small basins. Not expecting enough widespread heavy
rain to have any significant impact on river levels.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 350 PM EDT Monday...A Lake wind advisory will remain in
effect throughout the afternoon and early evening on Monday. Winds
ranging from 15-25 kts are expected to continue for this time
period, and then diminish to below advisory level into the
nighttime hours. Winds could increase again on Tuesday afternoon
as thunderstorms are expected to move through the area. Boaters
should be aware of the potential for scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible near Lake Champlain, some of which could be
strong.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...Lahiff
HYDROLOGY...Nash
MARINE...Follensbee




000
FXUS61 KOKX 271950
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
350 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough moves across the region tonight. A cold front
approaches Tuesday and moves into the area Tuesday night, and
through the area Wednesday. The front moves farther offshore
Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through
Friday. Another cold front then approaches and passes through late
Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the
front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A weak surface trough moves into the area this evening and late
tonight while slowly dissipating. Heights continue to fall slowly
as a long wave upper trough moves into the Great Lakes region.
Weak lift is accompanying the trough with little surface or mixed
layer CAPE. Also, instability is minimal with the best instability
across the lower Hudson Valley. So will not mention any thunder
tonight. As the area of showers moves farther to the east and
south through tonight, expect coverage to decrease. So, begin with
chance pops mainly across the western zones and lower to slight
chance late tonight. With increased low level moisture and a
southerly flow a marine layer will be in place. Stratus was
developing during the afternoon, and will become widespread
tonight.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic ocean beaches through early this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The longwave upper trough continues to dig into the eastern states
Tuesday and Tuesday night with additional energy rotating through
the trough. By 12Z Wednesday the trough axis still remains to the
west, through the eastern Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley.
Gulf of Mexico moisture is drawn up into the area through the
period with increasing low and mid level moisture. A more stable
marine layer remains in place and will limit the threat of
thunderstorms. However, inland instability increases Tuesday
afternoon and into the evening. Cape will be limited, however, a
few stronger thunderstorms will be possible, especially across the
lower Hudson Valley. The storm prediction center has a slight risk
area into portions of Orange county, but will not mention any
enhanced wording at this time as the better chances for the
stronger storms will be to the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front will likely be over the eastern zones Wednesday
morning. It will slowly push offshore through the day as it
dissipates. Its eastward progression could be slowed down by a weak
wave of low pressure attempting to form along the front. Thinking is
that chances of showers and thunderstorms will be primarily over the
eastern zones during the morning. Then in the afternoon and early
evening, PVA and destabilization could bring a shower or storm to
the rest of the forecast area.

High pressure brings dry weather on Thursday and Thursday night. For
Friday, a pre-frontal trough brings low chances of showers and
storms. The trailing cold front moves in Friday night, when
overall better chances occur.

It appears that this cold front will be slow to push offshore, so
low chances of showers and storms have been left in for eastern
sections Saturday morning. The front eventually sags to the south as
the upper flow aloft becomes more cyclonic Saturday night into
Sunday. ECMWF, which has been a northern outlier with a wave of low
pressure forming along the front, has trended farther south/drier
with this feature and associated precipitation. Will still leave in a
slight chance for the southern zones for this period until
confidence in dry weather increases further. High pressure otherwise
builds in from the northwest on Monday with dry conditions.

Temperatures through the long term period will be generally near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak low pressure trough will approach tonight, then a cold
front will approach on Tuesday.

* S flow late this afternoon just about at its expected peak, up
  to 30 kt at KJFK, 25 kt at KLGA/KISP, and 15-18 kt most
  elsewhere.

* Low clouds likely to move in quickly this evening at coastal
  terminals, with MVFR cigs to start, then IFR overnight. MVFR
  cigs expected north/west of there overnight except for KSWF, but
  timing north/west is uncertain, since those areas will be
  shielded from direct marine influence initially in southerly
  flow.

* Cigs should lift to MVFR by about 14Z-15Z.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: A brief gust just over 30 kt possible late this
afternoon. Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR cigs tonight still
a little uncertain.

KLGA TAF Comments: A brief gust just over 25 kt possible late this
afternoon. Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain,
and could occur later than forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional G15-18KT late this afternoon.
Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain, and could
occur later than forecast.

KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional G15-18KT late this afternoon.
Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain, and could
occur later than forecast.

KHPN TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still a
little uncertain.

KISP TAF Comments: A brief gust just over 25 kt possible late this
afternoon. Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR cigs tonight still
a little uncertain.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers/tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR or IFR or lower conditions possible via morning
fog/low clouds and showers/tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak surface trough moves through the waters tonight with the
chance of scattered showers. A cold front approaches Tuesday and
moves into the waters Tuesday night and east Wednesday. Southerly
winds will precede the cold frontal passage and occasional gusts
on the ocean waters may approach small craft levels into early
this evening and Tuesday, especially west of Fire Island Inlet.
Otherwise winds and seas will remain below advisory levels tonight
through Tuesday night.

The pressure gradient is expected to remain rather weak through the
rest of the forecast period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 271950
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
350 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough moves across the region tonight. A cold front
approaches Tuesday and moves into the area Tuesday night, and
through the area Wednesday. The front moves farther offshore
Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns for Thursday through
Friday. Another cold front then approaches and passes through late
Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the
front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A weak surface trough moves into the area this evening and late
tonight while slowly dissipating. Heights continue to fall slowly
as a long wave upper trough moves into the Great Lakes region.
Weak lift is accompanying the trough with little surface or mixed
layer CAPE. Also, instability is minimal with the best instability
across the lower Hudson Valley. So will not mention any thunder
tonight. As the area of showers moves farther to the east and
south through tonight, expect coverage to decrease. So, begin with
chance pops mainly across the western zones and lower to slight
chance late tonight. With increased low level moisture and a
southerly flow a marine layer will be in place. Stratus was
developing during the afternoon, and will become widespread
tonight.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic ocean beaches through early this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The longwave upper trough continues to dig into the eastern states
Tuesday and Tuesday night with additional energy rotating through
the trough. By 12Z Wednesday the trough axis still remains to the
west, through the eastern Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley.
Gulf of Mexico moisture is drawn up into the area through the
period with increasing low and mid level moisture. A more stable
marine layer remains in place and will limit the threat of
thunderstorms. However, inland instability increases Tuesday
afternoon and into the evening. Cape will be limited, however, a
few stronger thunderstorms will be possible, especially across the
lower Hudson Valley. The storm prediction center has a slight risk
area into portions of Orange county, but will not mention any
enhanced wording at this time as the better chances for the
stronger storms will be to the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front will likely be over the eastern zones Wednesday
morning. It will slowly push offshore through the day as it
dissipates. Its eastward progression could be slowed down by a weak
wave of low pressure attempting to form along the front. Thinking is
that chances of showers and thunderstorms will be primarily over the
eastern zones during the morning. Then in the afternoon and early
evening, PVA and destabilization could bring a shower or storm to
the rest of the forecast area.

High pressure brings dry weather on Thursday and Thursday night. For
Friday, a pre-frontal trough brings low chances of showers and
storms. The trailing cold front moves in Friday night, when
overall better chances occur.

It appears that this cold front will be slow to push offshore, so
low chances of showers and storms have been left in for eastern
sections Saturday morning. The front eventually sags to the south as
the upper flow aloft becomes more cyclonic Saturday night into
Sunday. ECMWF, which has been a northern outlier with a wave of low
pressure forming along the front, has trended farther south/drier
with this feature and associated precipitation. Will still leave in a
slight chance for the southern zones for this period until
confidence in dry weather increases further. High pressure otherwise
builds in from the northwest on Monday with dry conditions.

Temperatures through the long term period will be generally near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak low pressure trough will approach tonight, then a cold
front will approach on Tuesday.

* S flow late this afternoon just about at its expected peak, up
  to 30 kt at KJFK, 25 kt at KLGA/KISP, and 15-18 kt most
  elsewhere.

* Low clouds likely to move in quickly this evening at coastal
  terminals, with MVFR cigs to start, then IFR overnight. MVFR
  cigs expected north/west of there overnight except for KSWF, but
  timing north/west is uncertain, since those areas will be
  shielded from direct marine influence initially in southerly
  flow.

* Cigs should lift to MVFR by about 14Z-15Z.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: A brief gust just over 30 kt possible late this
afternoon. Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR cigs tonight still
a little uncertain.

KLGA TAF Comments: A brief gust just over 25 kt possible late this
afternoon. Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain,
and could occur later than forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional G15-18KT late this afternoon.
Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain, and could
occur later than forecast.

KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional G15-18KT late this afternoon.
Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain, and could
occur later than forecast.

KHPN TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still a
little uncertain.

KISP TAF Comments: A brief gust just over 25 kt possible late this
afternoon. Initial timing of MVFR and then IFR cigs tonight still
a little uncertain.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers/tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR or IFR or lower conditions possible via morning
fog/low clouds and showers/tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak surface trough moves through the waters tonight with the
chance of scattered showers. A cold front approaches Tuesday and
moves into the waters Tuesday night and east Wednesday. Southerly
winds will precede the cold frontal passage and occasional gusts
on the ocean waters may approach small craft levels into early
this evening and Tuesday, especially west of Fire Island Inlet.
Otherwise winds and seas will remain below advisory levels tonight
through Tuesday night.

The pressure gradient is expected to remain rather weak through the
rest of the forecast period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET




000
FXUS61 KBUF 271948
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
348 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the region tonight with a chance of showers
and possibly an isolated thunderstorm through Tuesday. Then
surface high pressure will build across the Lower Great Lakes
region with generally fair and seasonable weather on Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Visible satellite shows generally mostly sunny skies west of the
Eastern Lake Ontario region in the wake of the pre-frontal trough.
Expect this continue to be the case the rest of today with
clearing expected in the next hour or two east of lake Ontario.
Temperature wise, readings will top out in the 80s to near 90F
with elevated humidity making it feel a bit uncomfortable outside.

Tonight...a weak, moisture starved cold front will move across
the region after midnight...with legitimately cooler air slowly
making its way across the Lower Great Lakes. The more comfortable
airmass will not be fully `appreciated` until after daybreak though,
as temperatures overnight will only drop off into the low to mid 60s
for most areas. Tuesday, there will also be a threat of a few
showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm especially inland and
away from the stabilizing influence of the lakes. SPC has issued a
Marginal threat for severe thunderstorms further to the east of
lake Ontario but it`s likely that the lake breeze will help to
suppress thunderstorm development in this area. Highs on Wednesday
will be much cooler and comfortable with 70s expected across the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On Tuesday night a closed 500 mb low will track north of Lake
Ontario with its trough axis forecast to slowly move across our
region. Although this will be fairly strong feature, it will pass
overnight with no diurnal instability. As a result, expect the areal
coverage of showers to be spotty at best with little rainfall in
most areas to help with dry soil conditions. Cloud cover will limit
radiational cooling, but the cold air mass will still support lows
averaging in the lower to mid 50s.

On Wednesday the trough axis will slowly move from eastern New York
into New England. Due to the closer proximity of the trough there
maybe some showers across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Any
showers would be along or inland of the lake breeze which will
extend northeast of Lake Ontario. This is in line with a consensus
of guidance which has light convectively driven QPF in this region.
There will be limited instability here but with cool air aloft an
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Otherwise the rest of the
area will see a mix of sun and clouds as low level moisture
initially forces diurnal cumulus to develop inland from the lakes
before mixing out later in the day. Temperatures will remain just a
tad below average with highs in the mid 70s at lower elevations and
around 70 across higher terrain.

Dry weather will return after this, with high pressure forecast to
build across the Ohio valley Wednesday and then shift across the
lower Great Lakes through Thursday night. This will result in fair
weather and mostly clear skies throughout the period. Temperatures
on Thursday will be seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be on the cool side, especially Wednesday
night when temperatures in the Southern Tier valleys are expected to
drop into the mid to upper 40s. Temperature forecasts reflect a
slightly wider diurnal temperature swing than consensus guidance due
to the dry airmass influenced by high pressure.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Friday a mid level trough will pass across the region, with a weak
cold front passing across WNY and CNY. We will continue with low
chance pops along this front due to the frontal passage and
favorable dynamics aloft, despite moisture fields that are not
overly impressive.

Saturday through Monday, July 4th, surface high pressure will slide
from the Western Great Lakes region to the Eastern Great Lakes
region. A mean long wave trough aloft will limit the warming
associated with this surface high. Afternoon temperatures will warm
from the mid 70s Friday, to the lower 80s by Monday. There may be a
stray shower east of Lake Ontario Saturday with the presence of the
upper level low...otherwise mostly sunny skies and dry weather will
prevail through the weekend, with comfortable dewpoints.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low level cloudiness has dissipated at KBUF allowing for VFR the rest
of today. Elsewhere, VFR will continue at KJHW and KROC with MVFR
expected at KART through 19Z as the low cloudiness there slowly
exits to the east and northeast with improving conditions.

Tonight, a cold front will move across the forecast area which will
bring lowering CIGS and possibly brief MVFR conditions with any
showers activity. Otherwise, on Tuesday expect mainly VFR conditions
with a chance of showers or an isolated thunderstorm.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight, A weak cold front will cross the region with a chance of a
few showers. Behind the cold front, northwesterly winds pick up
during the midday and especially in the afternoon on Tuesday. This
will likely allow for some choppy waters east of Braddock Bay, but
below small craft advisory levels.

Surface High pressure will then build across the Lower Great Lakes
Wednesday and remain over the region through Thursday with light
winds and minimal waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR/LEVAN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...AR/LEVAN
MARINE...AR/LEVAN




000
FXUS61 KBGM 271941
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
341 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will be mainly dry but mild and muggy tonight ahead of a
cold front. This front will bring showers and storms to the area
Tuesday then be followed by cooler and drier weather for midweek.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Skies are beginning to clear west to east across the area in the
wake of an initial area of showers that is now located over far
S/E zones as of the mid afternoon. In tha wake of this first area,
destabilization is occurring over Finger Lakes area into Lake
Plain as temperatures are warming with moist conditions in the low
levels. A cold front that will affect tomorrow is still located
upstream over southern Ontario with area in southerly flow. For
the late afternoon into early this evening, first area of showers
will continue to move east and exit S/E portions of the CWA by
this evening. Meanwhile, expect some isolated showers or storms
may form over remaining areas where clearing and destabilization
is occurring.

Mainly quiet weather for tonight as any showers/storms diminish
after sunset. Conditions will be mild and muggy in moist slot ahead
of cold front. Also, the abundant moisture in the lower levels
looks to result in low level stratus formation overnight
especially from NE PA into the southern tier. Lows will be mainly
in the mid 60s.

For Tuesday, severe weather threat looks a little higher based on
the latest suite of model guidance. Early in the day, slow moving
cold front will be near west edge of the CWA and will slowly
advance east. Low stratus should mix out through the morning and
allow for enough destabilization for showers and thunderstorms to
fire along and just east of the front around midday into the early
afternoon (15-18z). This should occur near or just west of the
I-81 corridor. Latest model guidance indicates ML CAPES by this
time of around 700-900 J/kG (GFS) to as high as 2000-2500 J/KG
(NAM). Thus see 1500 J/KG as reasonable along with 40 knots of 0-6
km bulk shear which is what models are showing. Limiting factor
will be weak mid level laps rates under 6.0 C/km due to warm
layer. For this reason, if low level moisture is less than models
show, CAPE aloft will be quite narrow and thin further limiting
severe weather potential. This all said, threat currently high
enough for SPC to upgrade areas from I-81 east to a slight risk
meaning scattered severe storms will be possible. The biggest
threats will be strong winds and small hail. Have some concerns
about heavy rain as well due to slow movement of front and high
PWATs near 1.5 inches so some areas could get a good soaking.
However dry antecedent conditions should limit Flash flood
potential.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
To start the period, slow moving cold front will be over S/E part
of the CWA where showers/storms will likely still be ongoing while
remaining areas across the Twin Tiers north and west will be
seeing activity come to an end in the front`s wake. These
showers/storms will exit west to east by the overnight with cooler
and drier air moving in as lows drop into the 50s.

Wednesday will be cool and dry compared to recent weather with a
mix of sun and clouds. Lingering trough could bring a few isolated
showers across central NY with otherwise dry weather with highs
mostly in the low to mid 70s. High pressure then builds in for
Wednesday night and Thursday with mainly clear skies. Lows will be
cool Wednesday night - upper 40s to mid 50s with highs Thursday in
the upper 70s to low 80s.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
215 pm update... A progressive, fairly dry pattern overall, is
likely to continue this period.

An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front are
progged to impact the region Friday into Friday night. As such, we
have chance probabilities (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms.

Thereafter, it appears that we could have another extended stretch
of rain-free weather, with slowly building heights aloft, and
incoming surface high pressure.

Temperatures look fairly seasonable, with highs Friday mostly in
the 80s, dropping back a bit to the upper 70s-lower 80s for the
rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For the most part, VFR/unrestricted conditions can be expected
through 18z Tuesday. However, there a few brief windows for
restrictions, which will be outlined below.

First, an area of MVFR ceilings and scattered showers will be
exiting the area early this afternoon from W-E. Restrictions were
only carried through 19-20z at KRME, KBGM, and KAVP.

Late tonight into early Tuesday, an area of lower stratus
clouds/light fog is expected to form. The highest confidence of
such occurrence is at KBGM and KAVP, with somewhat lower
confidence at KELM and KITH. In general, MVFR restrictions were
carried at this early juncture, mostly between 07z and 13z.

Finally, showers and thunderstorms are likely to form around
midday Tuesday, along and ahead of an approaching cold front. The
most probable sites to be impacted before 18z are KELM, KSYR, and
KITH.

Surface winds will be S-SW at 8-12 kt both this afternoon, and on
Tuesday. Winds will turn light overnight (5 kt or less).

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.

Friday-Saturday...Although VFR expected much of the time, brief
restrictions with showers/thunderstorms are possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271933
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
333 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening mid-level trough across the eastern Great Lakes and
southeastern Ontario will bring an increase in clouds today along
with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. The best
chance for rainfall will be across northern New York this morning.
Temperatures will not be as hot as Sunday, but afternoon highs
will still reach the low to mid 80s in most sections. Moderate south
to southwest winds are expected today, and will bring a slight
increase in humidity levels to the region. A slow- moving surface
cold front and stronger mid-level trough will move into the North
Country for Tuesday, with the potential for more widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity. The strongest thunderstorm
activity is expected from the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks
eastward across Vermont, and storms could produce heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, and small hail.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 231 PM EDT Monday...Weak pre-frontal trough moving through
the North Country this afternoon continues to produce some locally
gusty winds along with isolated to scattered light rain showers.
Really not much impact though as reported rainfall amounts are
only a couple of hundredths, so keep those afternoon activities on
your daily planner. Persistent cloud cover has kept area
temperatures mainly in the 70s, but a few breaks in the clouds
this afternoon should push us to previously forecast highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

For tonight, any lingering showers and clouds exit to our east as
a mid-level dry slot builds into the forecast area ahead of a
cold front well upstream of the region, approaching the Ottawa
valley toward daybreak. Even though we`ll see some clearing
overnight, mid-level heights fall only slightly and with prevailing
south/southwest winds it should be pretty warm and muggy with
lows only ranging through the 60s to locally 70 at KBTV, and
dewpoints holding just a couple degrees cooler. Can`t rule out
some fog in the more sheltered hollows where winds could
decouple, but due to the expected limited areal coverage have not
mentioned it in the official forecast.

Moving on to Tuesday the forecast remains on track for a busy
afternoon across the North Country with the aforementioned cold
front shifting into the region producing widespread showers and
thunderstorms. We continue to monitor the threat for stronger
storms to develop with several ingredients coming together to
support the idea of some becoming severe along with the potential
for localized flash flooding. Timing is as such that the front
enters into the St. Lawrence Valley mid-morning, with convection
firing out ahead across the northern Adirondacks around 16-18z,
and slowly progressing eastward into the Champlain Valley 18-20z,
and eastern Vermont thereafter. For severe potential, there`s not
one single ingredient that sticks out over another, with modest
MUCAPEs of 1500-2500 J/kg, 0-3km bulk shear around 30kts, and
0-6km shear 40-50kts, but low level moisture will be abundant with
dewpoints well into the 60`s and with increasing mid-level
southwesterlies we`ll likely see a few stronger storms possibly
producing localized damaging winds. Of more concern though is the
threat for some localized flash flooding as a plume of enhanced
PWATs interacts with the boundary and the low/mid level flow
parallels the front supporting some training of storms. We`ll
touch on this more in an upcoming hydro section this afternoon, as
well as in the short term period. Stay tuned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...no huge changes in the forecast. at the
start of tuesday evening, we should have a line of convection
(likely focussed across Vermont) that will be pushing slowly east.
looks like a threat for locally heavy rain will continue until
about midnight. model guidance indicates a shortwave that will
move into the region during the early evening. thinking this will
help to increase the coverage of convection. add in some "cell
training", some locally heavy rain is a distinct possibility. see
the hydro section below for a few more details.

wednesday will be quieter than tuesday, however a few showers
across the north are possible. a stronger shortwave will zip
across the region during the day, however low level moisture is
quite limited (precipitable water values well below 1"). will
probably see a few showers develop across the higher terrain, thus
have painted in some 30-40% pops. limited instability, so not
looking for any thunderstorms.

wednesday night will be quiet as weak high pressure starts to
build in. i suppose we could see some areas of river valley fog.

stuck with model guidance blends for temperatures. should average
out close to normal for this time of year. lots of 70s to around
80f for wednesday. generally 50s/close to 60f for overnight lows.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH moNDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...initial glance at the upcoming July 4TH
Holiday Weekend indicates pretty decent weather for all the
outdoor activities planned. i think most everyone will be pleased
with that tidbit of information!

12z guidance (GFS & ECMWF) are in relatively good agreement, so
the featured forecast is basically a blend of what we`ve had
previously along with the newest data. some comments on each day:

thursday: should be a fine day with near normal temperatures and
relatively low humidity thanks to high pressure overhead.

friday: upper trough will be moving into the region during the
day. most of the energy is far to our north, but we`ll have
marginal instability and moisture around to trigger a few showers
and t-storms.

saturday: cyclonic flow along with slightly cool temperatures
aloft combined with daytime heating should result in a few
showers, mainly across higher terrain. however for the vast
majority of the region the vast majority of the time it will be
dry with partly sunny skies. temperatures a little below normal,
but still quite comfy.

sunday: looking similar to saturday. a little less low level
moisture, so any showers will be lighter and harder to find. have
only 15-20% chance of rain for the higher terrain. temperatures
will again be just a few degrees below normal, but still comfy.
another "get outside and enjoy it" kind of day.

Monday July 4th: see above.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through
the period with isolated MVFR currently at KMSS/KSLK persisting
for a couple more hours before lifting to VFR. Surface trough
moving through the area this afternoon continues to provide
locally gusty winds up to 25kts along with some isolated to
scattered showers, but as we progress into the evening and
overnight hours this activity will dissipate with winds abating
and ceilings lifting to a FEW-SCT cirrus deck. After 12z Tuesday,
a slow moving cold front will bring widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms, though mainly from the Adirondacks eastward and
after 17z.

Outlook 18z Tuesday through Saturday...
18z Tuesday through 12z Wednesday...+SHRA/TSRA likely along a cold
frontal passage, with locally strong/severe storms possible mainly
from the Champlain Valley eastward. Brief vsby/cig reductions to
MVFR/IFR possible.
12z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Mainly VFR with chance MVFR
showers.
00z Thursday through 12z Friday...Mainly VFR under high pressure.
Locally dense LIFR fog possible mainly at MPV/SLK 06-12Z each
night.
12z Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR with chance MVFR showers
and thunderstorms along another frontal passage.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
as of 325 pm monday... 12z guidance suite showing some signals
for localized heavy rain tuesday afternoon and evening, primarily
across vermont. with a deep southwest flow forecast to be in
place, the showers/t-storms that will develop won`t make fast
progress to the east. rather, the individual convective cells will
be moving from southwest to northeast within the slow moving line,
and this sets up the possibility for "training" (eg: one after the
other) cells. this type of situation can result in narrow stripes
of heavier precipitation footprints. precipitable water values
will peak somewhere in the order of 1.5 to 1.7", primarily across
vermont. these values aren`t excessive, but indicative of a fairly
moist atmosphere. adding to the ingredient list, models indicate a
short wave will be pushing into the area during the evening. the
NAM and GFS both indicate a blossiming of activity across vermont
between 00z-03z. raw QPF from some of the hi-res models indicate
some spot totals in excess of 1" in an hour or two. flash flood
guidance (FFG) is fairly high, given the relative dryness of late.
but that does not mean we can`t have flooding. 1 hour FFG is
roughly 1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is 2.3-3.0". It might be hard to
see that amount of rain in just 1 hour, but if we`ve got a slow
moving line with repeated cells moving across an area for 3 hours,
that 3 hour FFG is not too hard to achieve. Any flooding would be
localized to small basins. Not expecting enough widespread heavy
rain to have any significant impact on river levels.

&&

.MARINE...
Will maintain lake wind advisory through the day Monday with South
winds 15-25kts across much of Lake Champlain. It appears winds
will continue 15-25kts through about midnight, then gradient flow
diminishes and may be able to drop the advisory for the pre-dawn
hours on Tuesday. Boaters should also be advised that the
approaching surface cold front will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms vicinity of Lake Champlain Tuesday afternoon, with a
few strong storms possible.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...Lahiff
HYDROLOGY...nash
MARINE...Banacos




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271933
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
333 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening mid-level trough across the eastern Great Lakes and
southeastern Ontario will bring an increase in clouds today along
with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. The best
chance for rainfall will be across northern New York this morning.
Temperatures will not be as hot as Sunday, but afternoon highs
will still reach the low to mid 80s in most sections. Moderate south
to southwest winds are expected today, and will bring a slight
increase in humidity levels to the region. A slow- moving surface
cold front and stronger mid-level trough will move into the North
Country for Tuesday, with the potential for more widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity. The strongest thunderstorm
activity is expected from the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks
eastward across Vermont, and storms could produce heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, and small hail.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 231 PM EDT Monday...Weak pre-frontal trough moving through
the North Country this afternoon continues to produce some locally
gusty winds along with isolated to scattered light rain showers.
Really not much impact though as reported rainfall amounts are
only a couple of hundredths, so keep those afternoon activities on
your daily planner. Persistent cloud cover has kept area
temperatures mainly in the 70s, but a few breaks in the clouds
this afternoon should push us to previously forecast highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

For tonight, any lingering showers and clouds exit to our east as
a mid-level dry slot builds into the forecast area ahead of a
cold front well upstream of the region, approaching the Ottawa
valley toward daybreak. Even though we`ll see some clearing
overnight, mid-level heights fall only slightly and with prevailing
south/southwest winds it should be pretty warm and muggy with
lows only ranging through the 60s to locally 70 at KBTV, and
dewpoints holding just a couple degrees cooler. Can`t rule out
some fog in the more sheltered hollows where winds could
decouple, but due to the expected limited areal coverage have not
mentioned it in the official forecast.

Moving on to Tuesday the forecast remains on track for a busy
afternoon across the North Country with the aforementioned cold
front shifting into the region producing widespread showers and
thunderstorms. We continue to monitor the threat for stronger
storms to develop with several ingredients coming together to
support the idea of some becoming severe along with the potential
for localized flash flooding. Timing is as such that the front
enters into the St. Lawrence Valley mid-morning, with convection
firing out ahead across the northern Adirondacks around 16-18z,
and slowly progressing eastward into the Champlain Valley 18-20z,
and eastern Vermont thereafter. For severe potential, there`s not
one single ingredient that sticks out over another, with modest
MUCAPEs of 1500-2500 J/kg, 0-3km bulk shear around 30kts, and
0-6km shear 40-50kts, but low level moisture will be abundant with
dewpoints well into the 60`s and with increasing mid-level
southwesterlies we`ll likely see a few stronger storms possibly
producing localized damaging winds. Of more concern though is the
threat for some localized flash flooding as a plume of enhanced
PWATs interacts with the boundary and the low/mid level flow
parallels the front supporting some training of storms. We`ll
touch on this more in an upcoming hydro section this afternoon, as
well as in the short term period. Stay tuned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...no huge changes in the forecast. at the
start of tuesday evening, we should have a line of convection
(likely focussed across Vermont) that will be pushing slowly east.
looks like a threat for locally heavy rain will continue until
about midnight. model guidance indicates a shortwave that will
move into the region during the early evening. thinking this will
help to increase the coverage of convection. add in some "cell
training", some locally heavy rain is a distinct possibility. see
the hydro section below for a few more details.

wednesday will be quieter than tuesday, however a few showers
across the north are possible. a stronger shortwave will zip
across the region during the day, however low level moisture is
quite limited (precipitable water values well below 1"). will
probably see a few showers develop across the higher terrain, thus
have painted in some 30-40% pops. limited instability, so not
looking for any thunderstorms.

wednesday night will be quiet as weak high pressure starts to
build in. i suppose we could see some areas of river valley fog.

stuck with model guidance blends for temperatures. should average
out close to normal for this time of year. lots of 70s to around
80f for wednesday. generally 50s/close to 60f for overnight lows.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH moNDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...initial glance at the upcoming July 4TH
Holiday Weekend indicates pretty decent weather for all the
outdoor activities planned. i think most everyone will be pleased
with that tidbit of information!

12z guidance (GFS & ECMWF) are in relatively good agreement, so
the featured forecast is basically a blend of what we`ve had
previously along with the newest data. some comments on each day:

thursday: should be a fine day with near normal temperatures and
relatively low humidity thanks to high pressure overhead.

friday: upper trough will be moving into the region during the
day. most of the energy is far to our north, but we`ll have
marginal instability and moisture around to trigger a few showers
and t-storms.

saturday: cyclonic flow along with slightly cool temperatures
aloft combined with daytime heating should result in a few
showers, mainly across higher terrain. however for the vast
majority of the region the vast majority of the time it will be
dry with partly sunny skies. temperatures a little below normal,
but still quite comfy.

sunday: looking similar to saturday. a little less low level
moisture, so any showers will be lighter and harder to find. have
only 15-20% chance of rain for the higher terrain. temperatures
will again be just a few degrees below normal, but still comfy.
another "get outside and enjoy it" kind of day.

Monday July 4th: see above.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through
the period with isolated MVFR currently at KMSS/KSLK persisting
for a couple more hours before lifting to VFR. Surface trough
moving through the area this afternoon continues to provide
locally gusty winds up to 25kts along with some isolated to
scattered showers, but as we progress into the evening and
overnight hours this activity will dissipate with winds abating
and ceilings lifting to a FEW-SCT cirrus deck. After 12z Tuesday,
a slow moving cold front will bring widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms, though mainly from the Adirondacks eastward and
after 17z.

Outlook 18z Tuesday through Saturday...
18z Tuesday through 12z Wednesday...+SHRA/TSRA likely along a cold
frontal passage, with locally strong/severe storms possible mainly
from the Champlain Valley eastward. Brief vsby/cig reductions to
MVFR/IFR possible.
12z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Mainly VFR with chance MVFR
showers.
00z Thursday through 12z Friday...Mainly VFR under high pressure.
Locally dense LIFR fog possible mainly at MPV/SLK 06-12Z each
night.
12z Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR with chance MVFR showers
and thunderstorms along another frontal passage.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
as of 325 pm monday... 12z guidance suite showing some signals
for localized heavy rain tuesday afternoon and evening, primarily
across vermont. with a deep southwest flow forecast to be in
place, the showers/t-storms that will develop won`t make fast
progress to the east. rather, the individual convective cells will
be moving from southwest to northeast within the slow moving line,
and this sets up the possibility for "training" (eg: one after the
other) cells. this type of situation can result in narrow stripes
of heavier precipitation footprints. precipitable water values
will peak somewhere in the order of 1.5 to 1.7", primarily across
vermont. these values aren`t excessive, but indicative of a fairly
moist atmosphere. adding to the ingredient list, models indicate a
short wave will be pushing into the area during the evening. the
NAM and GFS both indicate a blossiming of activity across vermont
between 00z-03z. raw QPF from some of the hi-res models indicate
some spot totals in excess of 1" in an hour or two. flash flood
guidance (FFG) is fairly high, given the relative dryness of late.
but that does not mean we can`t have flooding. 1 hour FFG is
roughly 1.8-2.4", and 3 hour FFG is 2.3-3.0". It might be hard to
see that amount of rain in just 1 hour, but if we`ve got a slow
moving line with repeated cells moving across an area for 3 hours,
that 3 hour FFG is not too hard to achieve. Any flooding would be
localized to small basins. Not expecting enough widespread heavy
rain to have any significant impact on river levels.

&&

.MARINE...
Will maintain lake wind advisory through the day Monday with South
winds 15-25kts across much of Lake Champlain. It appears winds
will continue 15-25kts through about midnight, then gradient flow
diminishes and may be able to drop the advisory for the pre-dawn
hours on Tuesday. Boaters should also be advised that the
approaching surface cold front will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms vicinity of Lake Champlain Tuesday afternoon, with a
few strong storms possible.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...Lahiff
HYDROLOGY...nash
MARINE...Banacos




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271831
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
231 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening mid-level trough across the eastern Great Lakes and
southeastern Ontario will bring an increase in clouds today along
with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. The best
chance for rainfall will be across northern New York this morning.
Temperatures will not be as hot as Sunday, but afternoon highs
will still reach the low to mid 80s in most sections. Moderate south
to southwest winds are expected today, and will bring a slight
increase in humidity levels to the region. A slow- moving surface
cold front and stronger mid-level trough will move into the North
Country for Tuesday, with the potential for more widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity. The strongest thunderstorm
activity is expected from the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks
eastward across Vermont, and storms could produce heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, and small hail.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 231 PM EDT Monday...Weak pre-frontal trough moving through
the North Country this afternoon continues to produce some locally
gusty winds along with isolated to scattered light rain showers.
Really not much impact though as reported rainfall amounts are
only a couple of hundredths, so keep those afternoon activities on
your daily planner. Persistent cloud cover has kept area
temperatures mainly in the 70s, but a few breaks in the clouds
this afternoon should push us to previously forecast highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

For tonight, any lingering showers and clouds exit to our east as
a mid-level dry slot builds into the forecast area ahead of a
cold front well upstream of the region, approaching the Ottawa
valley toward daybreak. Even though we`ll see some clearing
overnight, mid-level heights fall only slightly and with prevailing
south/southwest winds it should be pretty warm and muggy with
lows only ranging through the 60s to locally 70 at KBTV, and
dewpoints holding just a couple degrees cooler. Can`t rule out
some fog in the more sheltered hollows where winds could
decouple, but due to the expected limited areal coverage have not
mentioned it in the official forecast.

Moving on to Tuesday the forecast remains on track for a busy
afternoon across the North Country with the aforementioned cold
front shifting into the region producing widespread showers and
thunderstorms. We continue to monitor the threat for stronger
storms to develop with several ingredients coming together to
support the idea of some becoming severe along with the potential
for localized flash flooding. Timing is as such that the front
enters into the St. Lawrence Valley mid-morning, with convection
firing out ahead across the northern Adirondacks around 16-18z,
and slowly progressing eastward into the Champlain Valley 18-20z,
and eastern Vermont thereafter. For severe potential, there`s not
one single ingredient that sticks out over another, with modest
MUCAPEs of 1500-2500 J/kg, 0-3km bulk shear around 30kts, and
0-6km shear 40-50kts, but low level moisture will be abundant with
dewpoints well into the 60`s and with increasing mid-level
southwesterlies we`ll likely see a few stronger storms possibly
producing localized damaging winds. Of more concern though is the
threat for some localized flash flooding as a plume of enhanced
PWATs interacts with the boundary and the low/mid level flow
parallels the front supporting some training of storms. We`ll
touch on this more in an upcoming hydro section this afternoon, as
well as in the short term period. Stay tuned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 444 AM EDT Monday...On Tuesday, conditions start out mainly
dry. Have used BTV 4 km model for timing of development of showers
and thunderstorms. This model showing showers and storms
developing over northern New York between 16z-18z on Tuesday, with
storms developing over the western slopes of the Green Mountains
around 18z Tuesday. Models showing a sharp upper trough
approaching the region from the Great lakes On Tuesday. Also, GFS
model showing 40-45 knots in the 0-6km layer of bulk shear, along
with surface based GFS model capes of 1000 to greater than 2000
j/kg by Tuesday afternoon. Have continued to use enhanced wording
from the Adirondacks eastward to Vermont for Tuesday afternoon,
with gusty winds, small hail and heavy downpours possible, mainly
from the Adirondacks eastward to Vermont. SPC has most of the
region in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Expecting most of the shower and thunderstorm activity to be over
eastern and southern Vermont by early Tuesday evening, based on
the BTV 4km model. Given rather dry antecedent conditions across
the region, am not expecting any flash flooding issues at this
time, with main threats being from gusty winds and hail. Expecting
thunderstorm activity to diminish early Tuesday evening, with the
loss of daytime surface heating.

The upper trough will move across the region on Wednesday, so have
kept in a chance of rain showers in the forecast. This upper
trough will be eats of the region by Wednesday night, so have gone
with a dry forecast for Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 444 AM EDT Monday...Drier weather will be over the region
Thursday and Thursday night, as a weak ridge of high pressure will
be over the region. Friday also starts out dry, with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms developing Friday afternoon and
continuing into Friday night as a cold front move east from the
eastern Great Lakes. An upper trough will be over the region on
Saturday, so will continue with a chance for rain showers.
expecting mainly dry conditions on Sunday, as a weak area of high
pressure slides east from the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through
the period with isolated MVFR currently at KMSS/KSLK persisting
for a couple more hours before lifting to VFR. Surface trough
moving through the area this afternoon continues to provide
locally gusty winds up to 25kts along with some isolated to
scattered showers, but as we progress into the evening and
overnight hours this activity will dissipate with winds abating
and ceilings lifting to a FEW-SCT cirrus deck. After 12z Tuesday,
a slow moving cold front will bring widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms, though mainly from the Adirondacks eastward and
after 17z.

Outlook 18z Tuesday through Saturday...
18z Tuesday through 12z Wednesday...+SHRA/TSRA likely along a cold
frontal passage, with locally strong/severe storms possible mainly
from the Champlain Valley eastward. Brief vsby/cig reductions to
MVFR/IFR possible.
12z Wednesday through 00z Thursday...Mainly VFR with chance MVFR
showers.
00z Thursday through 12z Friday...Mainly VFR under high pressure.
Locally dense LIFR fog possible mainly at MPV/SLK 06-12Z each
night.
12z Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR with chance MVFR showers
and thunderstorms along another frontal passage.

&&

.MARINE...
Will maintain lake wind advisory through the day Monday with South
winds 15-25kts across much of Lake Champlain. It appears winds
will continue 15-25kts through about midnight, then gradient flow
diminishes and may be able to drop the advisory for the pre-dawn
hours on Tuesday. Boaters should also be advised that the
approaching surface cold front will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms vicinity of Lake Champlain Tuesday afternoon, with a
few strong storms possible.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Lahiff
MARINE...Banacos




000
FXUS61 KBUF 271826
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
226 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the region tonight with a chance of a
few showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm on Tuesday.
Then surface high pressure will build into the Lower Great Lakes
region with generally fair and seasonable weather on Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Visible satellite shows generally mostly sunny skies west of the
Eastern Lake Ontario region in the wake of the pre-frontal trough.
Expect this continue to be the case the rest of today with
clearing expected in the next hour or two east of lake Ontario.
Temperature wise, readings will top out in the 80s to near 90F
with elevated humidity making it feel a bit uncomfortable outside.

Tonight...a weak, moisture starved cold front will move across
the region after midnight...with legitimately cooler air slowly
making its way across the Lower Great Lakes. The more comfortable
airmass will not be fully `appreciated` until after daybreak though,
as temperatures overnight will only drop off into the low to mid 60s
for most areas. Tuesday, there will also be a threat of a few
showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm especially inland and
away from the stabilizing influence of the lakes. SPC has issued a
Marginal threat for severe thunderstorms further to the east of
lake Ontario but it`s likely that the lake breeze will help to
suppress thunderstorm development in this area. Highs on Wednesday
will be much cooler and comfortable with 70s expected across the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On Tuesday night a closed 500 mb low will track north of Lake
Ontario with its trough axis forecast to slowly move across our
region. Although this will be fairly strong feature, it will pass
overnight with no diurnal instability. As a result, expect the areal
coverage of showers to be spotty at best with little rainfall in
most areas to help with dry soil conditions. Cloud cover will limit
radiational cooling, but the cold air mass will still support lows
averaging in the lower to mid 50s.

On Wednesday the trough axis will slowly move from eastern New York
into New England. Due to the closer proximity of the trough there
maybe some showers across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Any
showers would be along or inland of the lake breeze which will
extend northeast of Lake Ontario. This is in line with a consensus
of guidance which has light convectively driven QPF in this region.
There will be limited instability here but with cool air aloft an
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Otherwise the rest of the
area will see a mix of sun and clouds as low level moisture
initially forces diurnal cumulus to develop inland from the lakes
before mixing out later in the day. Temperatures will remain just a
tad below average with highs in the mid 70s at lower elevations and
around 70 across higher terrain.

Dry weather will return after this, with high pressure forecast to
build across the Ohio valley Wednesday and then shift across the
lower Great Lakes through Thursday night. This will result in fair
weather and mostly clear skies throughout the period. Temperatures
on Thursday will be seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be on the cool side, especially Wednesday
night when temperatures in the Southern Tier valleys are expected to
drop into the mid to upper 40s. Temperature forecasts reflect a
slightly wider diurnal temperature swing than consensus guidance due
to the dry airmass influenced by high pressure.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
By Friday a mid level trough will swing east through Ontario and
Quebec, with a trailing surface cold front moving east through the
Great Lakes. This front will provide the next chance of rain by
Friday afternoon and Friday night, but similar to many fronts in the
past few weeks expect coverage of any showers and thunderstorms to
remain scattered.

High pressure then returns to the Great Lakes region for next
weekend with a return to sunshine. Temperatures will be a little
cooler Saturday behind the front with highs in the 70s, then warming
back into the lower 80s by Sunday as the airmass quickly modifies.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low level cloudiness has dissipated at KBUF allowing for VFR the rest
of today. Elsewhere, VFR will continue at KJHW and KROC with MVFR
expected at KART through 19Z as the low cloudiness there slowly
exits to the east and northeast with improving conditions.

Tonight, a cold front will move across the forecast area which will
bring lowering CIGS and possibly brief MVFR conditions with any
showers activity. Otherwise, on Tuesday expect mainly VFR conditions
with a chance of showers or an isolated thunderstorm.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight, A weak cold front will cross the region with a chance of a
few showers. Behind the cold front, northwesterly winds pick up
during the midday and especially in the afternoon on Tuesday. This
will likely allow for some choppy waters east of Braddock Bay, but
below small craft advisory levels.

Surface High pressure will then build across the Lower Great Lakes
Wednesday and remain over the region through Thursday with light
winds and minimal waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR/LEVAN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...AR/LEVAN
MARINE...AR/LEVAN




000
FXUS61 KOKX 271824
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
224 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure weakens across the region through tonight as a cold
front well to the west slowly approaches. The cold front nears the
region Tuesday, and moves across Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. The front moves farther offshore Wednesday night. Weak
high pressure returns Thursday through Friday. Another cold front
approaches late Friday moving across Saturday and moving southeast
of the region by next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weak mid and low level forcing has resulted in clouds developing
across eastern Connecticut and eastern Long Island. In addition,
in an increasingly low level southerly flow stratus has begun to
develop. A weak surface trough was across eastern New York state
into northeastern Pennsylvania with a line of scattered showers
associated with the trough. Will continue with the chance and
slight chance pops for this afternoon.

The airmass will begin to become more humid as dew points rise
through the lower 60s this afternoon with south winds as highs as
15 to 20 mph at the coast.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic ocean beaches today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Mid level short wave trough passes through tonight with a few
showers possible. Next feature of interest will be a cold front
dropping SE across the Great Lakes tonight, approaching the NW
zones late tomorrow afternoon. Gradual height falls aloft and
increasing low-level moisture will allow for moderate instability
tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the interior. An onshore flow
near the coast will help to stabilize the airmass. The best chance
for isolated strong convection will be across the interior later
in the afternoon with CAPES over 1000 J/KG. Wind shear remains
weak, so not expecting any organization.

Conditions will be warm and muggy with dew points rising into the
upper 60s with with similar lows tonight. Highs on Tuesday may be
a degree or two cooler due to more cloud cover and continued
onshore flow. Coastal sections may have to contend with stratus
late tonight into Tuesday as the warm, moist air overruns the
cooler nearshore waters.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level trough makes slow progress east across New England
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Associated PVA noted in most model
solutions traversing across the area through early Wednesday before
moving east.

This energy departs to the northeast as closed upper low moves
across Ontario Province late in the week, with a general trough
extending across the Great Lakes region toward the east. The closed
low moves east across Quebec Province, with lowering heights and
weak PVA moving across the northeast United States next weekend.

At the surface, a slow moving cold front approaches Tuesday evening,
with a wave of low pressure along the front to the west. The front
makes slow progress across the area Tuesday night, with another
frontal boundary lagging behind Wednesday before moving through
late. High pressure builds Thursday and Friday with another cold
front moving toward or through the area Saturday. Not too confident
in how far front moves for the latter portion of the weekend.

As for sensible weather, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night due to leftover moderate
instability, convergence along the front, upper level jet and PVA
aiding development. This chance continues overnight into Wednesday
due to continuation of upper support and cold front in the vicinity.
Would expect possible shower or thunderstorm development at any time
Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly scattered in nature.

Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday with unsettled weather
returning next weekend.

Temperatures will average near normal, lower to middle 80s during
the day and 60s at night for the most part. Followed model blend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will continue to drift
east. A weak low pressure trough will approach tonight, then a
cold front will approach on Tuesday.

* Mainly VFR to start afternoon. Initial MVFR cigs at KISP should
  scatter by 20Z as dense mid level clouds move east and daytime
  heating/mixing resume.

* Still expect increasing S flow, except SSE at KEWR/KTEB. Gusts
  could peak around 30 kt at KJFK, 25 kt at KLGA/KISP, and 15-18
  kt most elsewhere.

* Low clouds likely to move in quickly this evening at coastal
  terminals, with MVFR cigs to start, then IFR overnight. MVFR
  cigs expected north/west of there overnight except for KSWF, but
  timing north/west is uncertain, since those areas will be
  shielded from direct marine influence initially in southerly
  flow.

* Cigs should lift to MVFR by about 14Z-15Z.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Peak gusts around 30 kt this afternoon. Initial
timing of MVFR and then IFR cigs tonight still a little
uncertain.

KLGA TAF Comments: Peak gusts around 25 kt this afternoon. Initial
timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain, and could occur
later than forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional G15-18KT this afternoon. Initial
timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain, and could occur
later than forecast.

KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional G15-18KT this afternoon. Initial
timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain, and could occur
later than forecast.

KHPN TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still a
little uncertain.

KISP TAF Comments: Peak gusts around 25 kt this afternoon. Initial
timing of MVFR and then IFR cigs tonight still a little uncertain.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers/tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR or IFR or lower conditions possible via morning
fog/low clouds and showers/tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas forecast on track. No changes at this time.

As high pressure drifts east today, southerly winds will increase
this afternoon with occasional gusts to near small craft levels,
mainly west of Fire Island Inlet to near the mouth of New York
Harbor. Similar conditions are forecast on Tuesday. Otherwise,
winds and seas will remain below small craft levels on all the
waters.

A slow moving cold front passes across the waters Tuesday
night through Wednesday as high pressure builds for the late
week period. Overall, the pressure gradient remains rather weak
during this time period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW/PW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...MET/DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW/PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 271824
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
224 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure weakens across the region through tonight as a cold
front well to the west slowly approaches. The cold front nears the
region Tuesday, and moves across Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. The front moves farther offshore Wednesday night. Weak
high pressure returns Thursday through Friday. Another cold front
approaches late Friday moving across Saturday and moving southeast
of the region by next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weak mid and low level forcing has resulted in clouds developing
across eastern Connecticut and eastern Long Island. In addition,
in an increasingly low level southerly flow stratus has begun to
develop. A weak surface trough was across eastern New York state
into northeastern Pennsylvania with a line of scattered showers
associated with the trough. Will continue with the chance and
slight chance pops for this afternoon.

The airmass will begin to become more humid as dew points rise
through the lower 60s this afternoon with south winds as highs as
15 to 20 mph at the coast.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic ocean beaches today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Mid level short wave trough passes through tonight with a few
showers possible. Next feature of interest will be a cold front
dropping SE across the Great Lakes tonight, approaching the NW
zones late tomorrow afternoon. Gradual height falls aloft and
increasing low-level moisture will allow for moderate instability
tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the interior. An onshore flow
near the coast will help to stabilize the airmass. The best chance
for isolated strong convection will be across the interior later
in the afternoon with CAPES over 1000 J/KG. Wind shear remains
weak, so not expecting any organization.

Conditions will be warm and muggy with dew points rising into the
upper 60s with with similar lows tonight. Highs on Tuesday may be
a degree or two cooler due to more cloud cover and continued
onshore flow. Coastal sections may have to contend with stratus
late tonight into Tuesday as the warm, moist air overruns the
cooler nearshore waters.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level trough makes slow progress east across New England
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Associated PVA noted in most model
solutions traversing across the area through early Wednesday before
moving east.

This energy departs to the northeast as closed upper low moves
across Ontario Province late in the week, with a general trough
extending across the Great Lakes region toward the east. The closed
low moves east across Quebec Province, with lowering heights and
weak PVA moving across the northeast United States next weekend.

At the surface, a slow moving cold front approaches Tuesday evening,
with a wave of low pressure along the front to the west. The front
makes slow progress across the area Tuesday night, with another
frontal boundary lagging behind Wednesday before moving through
late. High pressure builds Thursday and Friday with another cold
front moving toward or through the area Saturday. Not too confident
in how far front moves for the latter portion of the weekend.

As for sensible weather, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night due to leftover moderate
instability, convergence along the front, upper level jet and PVA
aiding development. This chance continues overnight into Wednesday
due to continuation of upper support and cold front in the vicinity.
Would expect possible shower or thunderstorm development at any time
Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly scattered in nature.

Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday with unsettled weather
returning next weekend.

Temperatures will average near normal, lower to middle 80s during
the day and 60s at night for the most part. Followed model blend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will continue to drift
east. A weak low pressure trough will approach tonight, then a
cold front will approach on Tuesday.

* Mainly VFR to start afternoon. Initial MVFR cigs at KISP should
  scatter by 20Z as dense mid level clouds move east and daytime
  heating/mixing resume.

* Still expect increasing S flow, except SSE at KEWR/KTEB. Gusts
  could peak around 30 kt at KJFK, 25 kt at KLGA/KISP, and 15-18
  kt most elsewhere.

* Low clouds likely to move in quickly this evening at coastal
  terminals, with MVFR cigs to start, then IFR overnight. MVFR
  cigs expected north/west of there overnight except for KSWF, but
  timing north/west is uncertain, since those areas will be
  shielded from direct marine influence initially in southerly
  flow.

* Cigs should lift to MVFR by about 14Z-15Z.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Peak gusts around 30 kt this afternoon. Initial
timing of MVFR and then IFR cigs tonight still a little
uncertain.

KLGA TAF Comments: Peak gusts around 25 kt this afternoon. Initial
timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain, and could occur
later than forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional G15-18KT this afternoon. Initial
timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain, and could occur
later than forecast.

KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional G15-18KT this afternoon. Initial
timing of MVFR cigs tonight still uncertain, and could occur
later than forecast.

KHPN TAF Comments: Initial timing of MVFR cigs tonight still a
little uncertain.

KISP TAF Comments: Peak gusts around 25 kt this afternoon. Initial
timing of MVFR and then IFR cigs tonight still a little uncertain.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers/tstms and/or low clouds/fog.

.Wednesday...MVFR or IFR or lower conditions possible via morning
fog/low clouds and showers/tstms.

.Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning...VFR.

.Friday night...MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers/tstms.

.Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas forecast on track. No changes at this time.

As high pressure drifts east today, southerly winds will increase
this afternoon with occasional gusts to near small craft levels,
mainly west of Fire Island Inlet to near the mouth of New York
Harbor. Similar conditions are forecast on Tuesday. Otherwise,
winds and seas will remain below small craft levels on all the
waters.

A slow moving cold front passes across the waters Tuesday
night through Wednesday as high pressure builds for the late
week period. Overall, the pressure gradient remains rather weak
during this time period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW/PW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...MET/DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW/PW




000
FXUS61 KBGM 271817
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
217 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal system will spread clouds, showers and scattered
thunderstorms across the area today. Some clearing can be expected
later today and tonight then another frontal system will bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms again on Tuesday. Mainly dry
weather will return Wednesday as high pressure builds across the
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 am update...An area of showers continues to move east across
central NY with areas around the central southern tier including
Binghamton likely to see some showers within the next hour or two.
We raised POPs for much of central NY based on latest radar and
trends and also made some adjustments to temperatures for today.
Temps were lowered for the late morning into early this afternoon
due to showers moving through with many areas likely to see highs
toward the late afternoon following the showers and any storms.


615 am update... Current forecast is in good shape. Band of
showers over western NY is making slow progress east with the
leading edge now from near Syracuse through the Finger Lakes. Have
adjusted pops slightly to lower pops for the next few hours from
Binghamton down through northeast Pa as any rain looks to hold off
in that area until after 10 am. Otherwise still expecting a band
of showers with some isolated thunder to move across the area
through early afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms could
still develop later this afternoon but coverage will be less than
late this morning. Previous discussion is below:

Band of showers is moving slowly east early this morning across
western NY and northwest Pa in association with a weak surface
trough advancing east from the eastern Great Lakes. Models are in
good agreement that this band of showers will hold together and
move across central New York and northeast Pa later this morning
into early afternoon. A ribbon of modest instability will develop
along the trough axis later this morning so isolated thunderstorms
will also be possible along with the showers. Once this initial
band of showers moves east of the area... some clearing will occur
later this afternoon however the weak surface troughing will
persist across the region with dew points climbing into the mid
60s. Expect isolated showers and thunderstorms near the surface
trough in central NY late this afternoon persisting into the early
evening before things dry out completely overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Expect Tuesday to start out rain-free but rather muggy with dew
points in the mid to upper 60s. A cold front will track slowly
east across the region during the day with scattered convective
showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. At this
point the models are in fairly good agreement that the location of
the frontal zone will favor the eastern half of our area for the
highest coverage of showers Tuesday afternoon... mainly from the
I-81 corridor east. The NAM is forecasting a ribbon of 1000-2000
J/kg MLCAPE values from the Poconos to the Catskills along or just
ahead of the front by late afternoon Tuesday. As is typical the
GFS shows much less instability with MLCAPE values in that same
area generally below 500 J/kg. A compromise of around 1000 J/kg
should support some thunderstorms. Meanwhile deep-layer shear
values will be averaging 30-40 kts across the area... so if
moderate instability would develop we would have to watch for the
possibility of strong to marginally severe storms. The key will be
how quickly east the front moves and this will have to monitored
and the forecast refined over the next 36 hours. Meanwhile the
Finger Lakes area should be west of the front by late Tuesday with
most if not all convective showers east of that area.

Quiet weather will return to the area Tuesday night and Wednesday
as high pressure builds east from the Great Lakes. Dew points on
Wednesday will fall back into the 50s with near seasonal high
temperatures in the mid 70s to near 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
215 pm update... A progressive, fairly dry pattern overall, is
likely to continue this period.

An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front are
progged to impact the region Friday into Friday night. As such, we
have chance probabilities (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms.

Thereafter, it appears that we could have another extended stretch
of rain-free weather, with slowly building heights aloft, and
incoming surface high pressure.

Temperatures look fairly seasonable, with highs Friday mostly in
the 80s, dropping back a bit to the upper 70s-lower 80s for the
rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For the most part, VFR/unrestricted conditions can be expected
through 18z Tuesday. However, there a few brief windows for
restrictions, which will be outlined below.

First, an area of MVFR ceilings and scattered showers will be
exiting the area early this afternoon from W-E. Restrictions were
only carried through 19-20z at KRME, KBGM, and KAVP.

Late tonight into early Tuesday, an area of lower stratus
clouds/light fog is expected to form. The highest confidence of
such occurrence is at KBGM and KAVP, with somewhat lower
confidence at KELM and KITH. In general, MVFR restrictions were
carried at this early juncture, mostly between 07z and 13z.

Finally, showers and thunderstorms are likely to form around
midday Tuesday, along and ahead of an approaching cold front. The
most probable sites to be impacted before 18z are KELM, KSYR, and
KITH.

Surface winds will be S-SW at 8-12 kt both this afternoon, and on
Tuesday. Winds will turn light overnight (5 kt or less).

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.

Friday-Saturday...Although VFR expected much of the time, brief
restrictions with showers/thunderstorms are possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MSE
NEAR TERM...DGM/MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBUF 271814
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
214 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the region tonight with a chance of a
few showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm on Tuesday.
Surface high pressure builds into the Lower Great Lakes Wednesday
with cooler and drier air weather expected through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Visible shows generally mostly sunny skies west of the Eastern Lake
Ontario region in the wake of the pre-frontal trough. Expect this
continue to be the case the rest of today with clearing expected in
the next hour or two east of lake Ontario. Temperature wise,
readings will top out in the 80s to near 90F with elevated humidity
making it feel a bit uncomfortable outside.

Tonight...a weak, moisture starved cold front will move across
the region after midnight...with legitimately cooler air slowly
making its way across the Lower Great Lakes. The more comfortable
airmass will not be fully `appreciated` until after daybreak though,
as temperatures overnight will only drop off into the low to mid 60s
for most areas. Tuesday, there will also be a threat of a few
showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm especially inland and
away from the stabilizing influence of the lakes. SPC has issued a
Marginal threat for SVR Thunderstorms further to the east of lake
Ontario but it`s likely that the lake breeze will help to suppress
thunderstorm development in this area. Highs on Wednesday will be
much cooler and comfortable with 70s expected across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A sharp mid level trough will move from the central Great Lakes
Tuesday into the lower Great Lakes by Tuesday night. Several
shortwaves rotating through the trough will provide a few periods of
large scale ascent, with a pair of associated subtle surface cold
fronts providing some low level convergence. The combination of
large scale ascent, modest diurnal instability, and limited moisture
will support a few scattered showers Tuesday, mainly in the
afternoon and mainly inland from the stabilizing influences of the
lakes. The limited instability and cooling temperatures aloft may
allow lapse rates to steepen sufficiently to support a few isolated
thunderstorms as well, especially across central NY where a relative
maximum in instability is expected along the leading edge of the
trough axis.

Ongoing cold advection and increased cloud cover will keep
temperatures cooler than recent days, with highs in the mid 70s in
most locations.

Tuesday night the main mid level trough will slowly cross the area
from west to east. Ongoing weak ascent and limited moisture with the
trough passage may continue to support a few widely scattered
showers overnight, with any isolated thunder ending in the evening
with weakening diurnal instability. Coverage of the showers and
isolated storms Tuesday and Tuesday night will be very spotty at
best, with little rainfall in most areas to help with dry soil
conditions.

On Wednesday the mid level trough will continue east across eastern
NY and into New England. Enough cyclonic flow, ascent, and moisture
may remain across the eastern Lake Ontario region to support a few
lingering scattered showers. Otherwise the rest of the area will see
a mix of sun and clouds as low level moisture initially forces
diurnal cumulus to develop inland from the lakes before mixing out
later in the day. Temperatures will remain just a tad below average
with highs in the mid 70s at lower elevations and around 70 across
higher terrain.

High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes
Wednesday night with clearing skies. The clearing and light winds
combined with the dry/cool airmass will allow for good radiational
cooling, with lows in the lower to mid 50s on the lake plains and
mid to upper 40s in the cooler Southern Tier valleys and Lewis
County.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes
Thursday with abundant sunshine. Highs will rebound into the lower
80s in most locations as the airmass quickly modifies.

By Friday a mid level trough will swing east through Ontario and
Quebec, with a trailing surface cold front moving east through the
Great Lakes. This front will provide the next chance of rain by
Friday afternoon and Friday night, but similar to many fronts in the
past few weeks expect coverage of any showers and thunderstorms to
remain scattered.

High pressure then returns to the Great Lakes region for next
weekend with a return to sunshine. Temperatures will be a little
cooler Saturday behind the front with highs in the 70s, then warming
back into the lower 80s by Sunday as the airmass quickly modifies.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low level cloudiness has dissipated at KBUF allowing for VFR the rest
of today. Elsewhere, VFR will continue at KJHW and KROC with MVFR
expected at KART through 19Z as the low cloudiness there slowly
exits to the east and northeast with improving conditions.

Tonight, a cold front will move across the forecast area which will
bring lowering CIGS and possibly brief MVFR conditions with any
showers activity. Otherwise, on Tuesday expect mainly VFR conditions
with a chance of showers or an isolated thunderstorm.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight, A weak cold front will cross the region with a chance of a
few showers. Behind the cold front, northwesterly winds pick up
during the midday and especially in the afternoon on Tuesday. This
will likely allow for some choppy waters east of Braddock Bay, but
below small craft advisory levels.

Surface High pressure will then build across the Lower Great Lakes
Wednesday and remain over the region through Thursday with light
winds and minimal waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR/LEVAN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...AR/LEVAN
MARINE...AR/LEVAN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 271814
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
214 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the region tonight with a chance of a
few showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm on Tuesday.
Surface high pressure builds into the Lower Great Lakes Wednesday
with cooler and drier air weather expected through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Visible shows generally mostly sunny skies west of the Eastern Lake
Ontario region in the wake of the pre-frontal trough. Expect this
continue to be the case the rest of today with clearing expected in
the next hour or two east of lake Ontario. Temperature wise,
readings will top out in the 80s to near 90F with elevated humidity
making it feel a bit uncomfortable outside.

Tonight...a weak, moisture starved cold front will move across
the region after midnight...with legitimately cooler air slowly
making its way across the Lower Great Lakes. The more comfortable
airmass will not be fully `appreciated` until after daybreak though,
as temperatures overnight will only drop off into the low to mid 60s
for most areas. Tuesday, there will also be a threat of a few
showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm especially inland and
away from the stabilizing influence of the lakes. SPC has issued a
Marginal threat for SVR Thunderstorms further to the east of lake
Ontario but it`s likely that the lake breeze will help to suppress
thunderstorm development in this area. Highs on Wednesday will be
much cooler and comfortable with 70s expected across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A sharp mid level trough will move from the central Great Lakes
Tuesday into the lower Great Lakes by Tuesday night. Several
shortwaves rotating through the trough will provide a few periods of
large scale ascent, with a pair of associated subtle surface cold
fronts providing some low level convergence. The combination of
large scale ascent, modest diurnal instability, and limited moisture
will support a few scattered showers Tuesday, mainly in the
afternoon and mainly inland from the stabilizing influences of the
lakes. The limited instability and cooling temperatures aloft may
allow lapse rates to steepen sufficiently to support a few isolated
thunderstorms as well, especially across central NY where a relative
maximum in instability is expected along the leading edge of the
trough axis.

Ongoing cold advection and increased cloud cover will keep
temperatures cooler than recent days, with highs in the mid 70s in
most locations.

Tuesday night the main mid level trough will slowly cross the area
from west to east. Ongoing weak ascent and limited moisture with the
trough passage may continue to support a few widely scattered
showers overnight, with any isolated thunder ending in the evening
with weakening diurnal instability. Coverage of the showers and
isolated storms Tuesday and Tuesday night will be very spotty at
best, with little rainfall in most areas to help with dry soil
conditions.

On Wednesday the mid level trough will continue east across eastern
NY and into New England. Enough cyclonic flow, ascent, and moisture
may remain across the eastern Lake Ontario region to support a few
lingering scattered showers. Otherwise the rest of the area will see
a mix of sun and clouds as low level moisture initially forces
diurnal cumulus to develop inland from the lakes before mixing out
later in the day. Temperatures will remain just a tad below average
with highs in the mid 70s at lower elevations and around 70 across
higher terrain.

High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes
Wednesday night with clearing skies. The clearing and light winds
combined with the dry/cool airmass will allow for good radiational
cooling, with lows in the lower to mid 50s on the lake plains and
mid to upper 40s in the cooler Southern Tier valleys and Lewis
County.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes
Thursday with abundant sunshine. Highs will rebound into the lower
80s in most locations as the airmass quickly modifies.

By Friday a mid level trough will swing east through Ontario and
Quebec, with a trailing surface cold front moving east through the
Great Lakes. This front will provide the next chance of rain by
Friday afternoon and Friday night, but similar to many fronts in the
past few weeks expect coverage of any showers and thunderstorms to
remain scattered.

High pressure then returns to the Great Lakes region for next
weekend with a return to sunshine. Temperatures will be a little
cooler Saturday behind the front with highs in the 70s, then warming
back into the lower 80s by Sunday as the airmass quickly modifies.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low level cloudiness has dissipated at KBUF allowing for VFR the rest
of today. Elsewhere, VFR will continue at KJHW and KROC with MVFR
expected at KART through 19Z as the low cloudiness there slowly
exits to the east and northeast with improving conditions.

Tonight, a cold front will move across the forecast area which will
bring lowering CIGS and possibly brief MVFR conditions with any
showers activity. Otherwise, on Tuesday expect mainly VFR conditions
with a chance of showers or an isolated thunderstorm.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight, A weak cold front will cross the region with a chance of a
few showers. Behind the cold front, northwesterly winds pick up
during the midday and especially in the afternoon on Tuesday. This
will likely allow for some choppy waters east of Braddock Bay, but
below small craft advisory levels.

Surface High pressure will then build across the Lower Great Lakes
Wednesday and remain over the region through Thursday with light
winds and minimal waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR/LEVAN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...AR/LEVAN
MARINE...AR/LEVAN




000
FXUS61 KBGM 271736
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
136 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal system will spread clouds, showers and scattered
thunderstorms across the area today. Some clearing can be expected
later today and tonight then another frontal system will bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms again on Tuesday. Mainly dry
weather will return Wednesday as high pressure builds across the
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 am update...An area of showers continues to move east across
central NY with areas around the central southern tier including
Binghamton likely to see some showers within the next hour or two.
We raised POPs for much of central NY based on latest radar and
trends and also made some adjustments to temperatures for today.
Temps were lowered for the late morning into early this afternoon
due to showers moving through with many areas likely to see highs
toward the late afternoon following the showers and any storms.


615 am update... Current forecast is in good shape. Band of
showers over western NY is making slow progress east with the
leading edge now from near Syracuse through the Finger Lakes. Have
adjusted pops slightly to lower pops for the next few hours from
Binghamton down through northeast Pa as any rain looks to hold off
in that area until after 10 am. Otherwise still expecting a band
of showers with some isolated thunder to move across the area
through early afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms could
still develop later this afternoon but coverage will be less than
late this morning. Previous discussion is below:

Band of showers is moving slowly east early this morning across
western NY and northwest Pa in association with a weak surface
trough advancing east from the eastern Great Lakes. Models are in
good agreement that this band of showers will hold together and
move across central New York and northeast Pa later this morning
into early afternoon. A ribbon of modest instability will develop
along the trough axis later this morning so isolated thunderstorms
will also be possible along with the showers. Once this initial
band of showers moves east of the area... some clearing will occur
later this afternoon however the weak surface troughing will
persist across the region with dew points climbing into the mid
60s. Expect isolated showers and thunderstorms near the surface
trough in central NY late this afternoon persisting into the early
evening before things dry out completely overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Expect Tuesday to start out rain-free but rather muggy with dew
points in the mid to upper 60s. A cold front will track slowly
east across the region during the day with scattered convective
showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. At this
point the models are in fairly good agreement that the location of
the frontal zone will favor the eastern half of our area for the
highest coverage of showers Tuesday afternoon... mainly from the
I-81 corridor east. The NAM is forecasting a ribbon of 1000-2000
J/kg MLCAPE values from the Poconos to the Catskills along or just
ahead of the front by late afternoon Tuesday. As is typical the
GFS shows much less instability with MLCAPE values in that same
area generally below 500 J/kg. A compromise of around 1000 J/kg
should support some thunderstorms. Meanwhile deep-layer shear
values will be averaging 30-40 kts across the area... so if
moderate instability would develop we would have to watch for the
possibility of strong to marginally severe storms. The key will be
how quickly east the front moves and this will have to monitored
and the forecast refined over the next 36 hours. Meanwhile the
Finger Lakes area should be west of the front by late Tuesday with
most if not all convective showers east of that area.

Quiet weather will return to the area Tuesday night and Wednesday
as high pressure builds east from the Great Lakes. Dew points on
Wednesday will fall back into the 50s with near seasonal high
temperatures in the mid 70s to near 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
415 AM Update...Medium range models continue to show that an
upper level trof will remain over the northeast through the
extended forecast. Maximum temperatures through the period will
be close to normal but overnight minimums will run a little cool.
The only surface feature during the period will be a cold frontal
passage Friday into Friday night, will continue with chance pops
here. The rest of the extended will be dry as surface high
pressure will be in the vicinity Thursday and Saturday through
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For the most part, VFR/unrestricted conditions can be expected
through 18z Tuesday. However, there a few brief windows for
restrictions, which will be outlined below.

First, an area of MVFR ceilings and scattered showers will be
exiting the area early this afternoon from W-E. Restrictions were
only carried through 19-20z at KRME, KBGM, and KAVP.

Late tonight into early Tuesday, an area of lower stratus
clouds/light fog is expected to form. The highest confidence of
such occurrence is at KBGM and KAVP, with somewhat lower
confidence at KELM and KITH. In general, MVFR restrictions were
carried at this early juncture, mostly between 07z and 13z.

Finally, showers and thunderstorms are likely to form around
midday Tuesday, along and ahead of an approaching cold front. The
most probable sites to be impacted before 18z are KELM, KSYR, and
KITH.

Surface winds will be S-SW at 8-12 kt both this afternoon, and on
Tuesday. Winds will turn light overnight (5 kt or less).

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.

Friday-Saturday...Although VFR expected much of the time, brief
restrictions with showers/thunderstorms are possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MSE
NEAR TERM...DGM/MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KALY 271730
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
130 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Band of showers continues is track east and will affect eastern NY
and western New England this afternoon. Quite a sharp western edge
to the rain but clouds lag back a bit to the west. There is a line
of clearing approaching central NY that will work its way into the
Schoharie Valley...western Mohawk Valley and parts of the southern
Adirondacks before sunset.

The clouds and rain will cap temperatures in eastern NY and
western New England...and cause temperatures to fall a bit while
it is raining. In areas it is already raining...temperatures have
fallen...and may fall another degree or two. Dew points rise
behind the band of rain and clouds...though.

So...temperatures this afternoon in the upper 70s to mid 80s in
eastern NY and western New England will fall once the rain
arrives...while temperatures in areas seeing the rain will be in
the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The aforementioned pre-frontal trough will stall and become
diffuse near western New England tonight. So will only mention
isolated to widely scattered showers. It will be another mild
night with a southerly breezy persisting, with low temps in the
60s.

Tuesday is expected to be the most active day of the week in
terms of convective potential. At the surface, a cold front will
gradually push eastward across the region during the afternoon and
evening. Aloft, a positive to neutral tilt upper level trough is
forecast to deepen just to our west over the eastern Great Lakes.
Height falls and cyclonic vorticity advection aloft combined with
low level convergence along the cold front should result in fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially during
the afternoon across eastern NY spreading eastward to western New
England by evening.

There is a marginal risk for some of the thunderstorms to become
severe if sufficient instability can develop. Some breaks of
sunshine are expected ahead of the cold front, but it is unclear
how unstable it will get as model guidance differs with the GFS
indicating 500-1500 J/Kg of SBCAPE, while the NAM has more robust
values of around 1500-3000 J/Kg. Should more sunshine materialize,
the NAM values would be reasonable, but this is uncertain at this
time. Deep layer shear will be increasing to around 25-40 kt, so
organized severe storms will be possible given ample buoyancy.
Will mention the marginal risk in HWO.

Showers will continue Tuesday night, as the cold front only
gradually makes eastward progress, while the upper level trough
axis remains to our west with a continued cyclonic flow.
Coverage/intensity of thunder should decrease by late evening
though as instability is forecast to wane.

Will continue to mention chance pops for scattered showers with
isolated thunder for Wednesday, siding with the slower ECMWF/NAM
guidance compared to faster GFS. The upper level trough may become
a closed low, which would slow its progress. The more progressive
GFS continues to show and open wave. Max temps Wednesday should be
cooler than recent days, but close to normal for late June.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The period is expected to start out with fair weather and
seasonably warm temperatures. At the surface high pressure is
expected to be over the region. While aloft, the region is
expected to be between short wave trough.

A cold front will be on the approaches from the northwest as we
close out the work week and head into the long holiday weekend.
Convection is expected as the front approaches on Friday and
crosses the region Friday night.

Guidance indicates an upper level low should develop over the
Great Lakes region with it becoming stacked. This stacked low then
is modeled to move gradually eastward across eastern Canada over
the holiday weekend as short waves rotating about it maintaining
an upper level trough over the region. At this time, it appears
the weather across the local area should be fair for the holiday
weekend as the upper low is modeled to remain far enough to our
north while the cold front that moves through is forecast to stall
far enough to our south. A wave of low pressure is expected to
move eastward along this boundary. Subtle changes in the expected
locations of these features will result in changes to a fair
weather forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Band of showers was progressing across eastern New York yet flight
conditions remain VFR. In the wake of these showers the CIGS lower
a bit toward MVFR which seems this trend will continue into this
evening. Later tonight, combination from some rainfall earlier
along with higher surface dewpoints will lead toward lower CIGS
and VIS well into MVFR flight categories. Now if enough breaks in
the clouds were to occur and winds decouple, IFR conditions will
be possible with fog and/or low stratus.

Winds will generally be from the southerly direction around 10 KTS
through this afternoon then drop back to 5KTS or less tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 50 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 80 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Tuesday
will be around 50 to 60 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 10 to 15 mph with gusts
around 20 mph. Southerly winds will decrease to 5 to 10 mph
tonight. Winds on Tuesday will be south-southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There is a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms today, as a
weakening frontal boundary approaches. There will be a better
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Two day rainfall totals
could reach one half to one inch, with some isolated higher
amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV

www.weather.gov/albany




000
FXUS61 KALY 271730
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
130 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Band of showers continues is track east and will affect eastern NY
and western New England this afternoon. Quite a sharp western edge
to the rain but clouds lag back a bit to the west. There is a line
of clearing approaching central NY that will work its way into the
Schoharie Valley...western Mohawk Valley and parts of the southern
Adirondacks before sunset.

The clouds and rain will cap temperatures in eastern NY and
western New England...and cause temperatures to fall a bit while
it is raining. In areas it is already raining...temperatures have
fallen...and may fall another degree or two. Dew points rise
behind the band of rain and clouds...though.

So...temperatures this afternoon in the upper 70s to mid 80s in
eastern NY and western New England will fall once the rain
arrives...while temperatures in areas seeing the rain will be in
the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The aforementioned pre-frontal trough will stall and become
diffuse near western New England tonight. So will only mention
isolated to widely scattered showers. It will be another mild
night with a southerly breezy persisting, with low temps in the
60s.

Tuesday is expected to be the most active day of the week in
terms of convective potential. At the surface, a cold front will
gradually push eastward across the region during the afternoon and
evening. Aloft, a positive to neutral tilt upper level trough is
forecast to deepen just to our west over the eastern Great Lakes.
Height falls and cyclonic vorticity advection aloft combined with
low level convergence along the cold front should result in fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially during
the afternoon across eastern NY spreading eastward to western New
England by evening.

There is a marginal risk for some of the thunderstorms to become
severe if sufficient instability can develop. Some breaks of
sunshine are expected ahead of the cold front, but it is unclear
how unstable it will get as model guidance differs with the GFS
indicating 500-1500 J/Kg of SBCAPE, while the NAM has more robust
values of around 1500-3000 J/Kg. Should more sunshine materialize,
the NAM values would be reasonable, but this is uncertain at this
time. Deep layer shear will be increasing to around 25-40 kt, so
organized severe storms will be possible given ample buoyancy.
Will mention the marginal risk in HWO.

Showers will continue Tuesday night, as the cold front only
gradually makes eastward progress, while the upper level trough
axis remains to our west with a continued cyclonic flow.
Coverage/intensity of thunder should decrease by late evening
though as instability is forecast to wane.

Will continue to mention chance pops for scattered showers with
isolated thunder for Wednesday, siding with the slower ECMWF/NAM
guidance compared to faster GFS. The upper level trough may become
a closed low, which would slow its progress. The more progressive
GFS continues to show and open wave. Max temps Wednesday should be
cooler than recent days, but close to normal for late June.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The period is expected to start out with fair weather and
seasonably warm temperatures. At the surface high pressure is
expected to be over the region. While aloft, the region is
expected to be between short wave trough.

A cold front will be on the approaches from the northwest as we
close out the work week and head into the long holiday weekend.
Convection is expected as the front approaches on Friday and
crosses the region Friday night.

Guidance indicates an upper level low should develop over the
Great Lakes region with it becoming stacked. This stacked low then
is modeled to move gradually eastward across eastern Canada over
the holiday weekend as short waves rotating about it maintaining
an upper level trough over the region. At this time, it appears
the weather across the local area should be fair for the holiday
weekend as the upper low is modeled to remain far enough to our
north while the cold front that moves through is forecast to stall
far enough to our south. A wave of low pressure is expected to
move eastward along this boundary. Subtle changes in the expected
locations of these features will result in changes to a fair
weather forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Band of showers was progressing across eastern New York yet flight
conditions remain VFR. In the wake of these showers the CIGS lower
a bit toward MVFR which seems this trend will continue into this
evening. Later tonight, combination from some rainfall earlier
along with higher surface dewpoints will lead toward lower CIGS
and VIS well into MVFR flight categories. Now if enough breaks in
the clouds were to occur and winds decouple, IFR conditions will
be possible with fog and/or low stratus.

Winds will generally be from the southerly direction around 10 KTS
through this afternoon then drop back to 5KTS or less tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 50 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 80 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Tuesday
will be around 50 to 60 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 10 to 15 mph with gusts
around 20 mph. Southerly winds will decrease to 5 to 10 mph
tonight. Winds on Tuesday will be south-southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There is a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms today, as a
weakening frontal boundary approaches. There will be a better
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Two day rainfall totals
could reach one half to one inch, with some isolated higher
amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV

www.weather.gov/albany




000
FXUS61 KALY 271709
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
109 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Band of showers continues is track east and will affect eastern NY
and western New England this afternoon. Quite a sharp western edge
to the rain but clouds lag back a bit to the west. There is a line
of clearing approaching central NY that will work its way into the
Schoharie Valley...western Mohawk Valley and parts of the southern
Adirondacks before sunset.

The clouds and rain will cap temperatures in eastern NY and
western New England...and cause temperatures to fall a bit while
it is raining. In areas it is already raining...temperatures have
fallen...and may fall another degree or two. Dew points rise
behind the band of rain and clouds...though.

So...temperatures this afternoon in the upper 70s to mid 80s in
eastern NY and western New England will fall once the rain
arrives...while temperatures in areas seeing the rain will be in
the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The aforementioned pre-frontal trough will stall and become
diffuse near western New England tonight. So will only mention
isolated to widely scattered showers. It will be another mild
night with a southerly breezy persisting, with low temps in the
60s.

Tuesday is expected to be the most active day of the week in
terms of convective potential. At the surface, a cold front will
gradually push eastward across the region during the afternoon and
evening. Aloft, a positive to neutral tilt upper level trough is
forecast to deepen just to our west over the eastern Great Lakes.
Height falls and cyclonic vorticity advection aloft combined with
low level convergence along the cold front should result in fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially during
the afternoon across eastern NY spreading eastward to western New
England by evening.

There is a marginal risk for some of the thunderstorms to become
severe if sufficient instability can develop. Some breaks of
sunshine are expected ahead of the cold front, but it is unclear
how unstable it will get as model guidance differs with the GFS
indicating 500-1500 J/Kg of SBCAPE, while the NAM has more robust
values of around 1500-3000 J/Kg. Should more sunshine materialize,
the NAM values would be reasonable, but this is uncertain at this
time. Deep layer shear will be increasing to around 25-40 kt, so
organized severe storms will be possible given ample buoyancy.
Will mention the marginal risk in HWO.

Showers will continue Tuesday night, as the cold front only
gradually makes eastward progress, while the upper level trough
axis remains to our west with a continued cyclonic flow.
Coverage/intensity of thunder should decrease by late evening
though as instability is forecast to wane.

Will continue to mention chance pops for scattered showers with
isolated thunder for Wednesday, siding with the slower ECMWF/NAM
guidance compared to faster GFS. The upper level trough may become
a closed low, which would slow its progress. The more progressive
GFS continues to show and open wave. Max temps Wednesday should be
cooler than recent days, but close to normal for late June.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The period is expected to start out with fair weather and
seasonably warm temperatures. At the surface high pressure is
expected to be over the region. While aloft, the region is
expected to be between short wave trough.

A cold front will be on the approaches from the northwest as we
close out the work week and head into the long holiday weekend.
Convection is expected as the front approaches on Friday and
crosses the region Friday night.

Guidance indicates an upper level low should develop over the
Great Lakes region with it becoming stacked. This stacked low then
is modeled to move gradually eastward across eastern Canada over
the holiday weekend as short waves rotating about it maintaining
an upper level trough over the region. At this time, it appears
the weather across the local area should be fair for the holiday
weekend as the upper low is modeled to remain far enough to our
north while the cold front that moves through is forecast to stall
far enough to our south. A wave of low pressure is expected to
move eastward along this boundary. Subtle changes in the expected
locations of these features will result in changes to a fair
weather forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will weaken and slide
offshore today. In the meantime, a cold front will approach from
the west. Heights will fall across the region however upper level
support will remain well to the west. convection to move across
across the local area today impacting the TAF sites mainly during
the afternoon into the evening.

Expecting VFR conditions to prevail through much of the evening.
MVFR conditions are expected to develop overnight initially due
to ceilings then some fog is expected to form.

South-southwest flow will increasing to 10 to 12 knots with some
gusts into the 20s. The winds will decrease in the evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 50 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 80 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Tuesday
will be around 50 to 60 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 10 to 15 mph with gusts
around 20 mph. Southerly winds will decrease to 5 to 10 mph
tonight. Winds on Tuesday will be south-southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There is a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms today, as a
weakening frontal boundary approaches. There will be a better
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Two day rainfall totals
could reach one half to one inch, with some isolated higher
amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 271641
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1241 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure weakens across the region through tonight as a cold
front well to the west slowly approaches. The cold front nears the
region Tuesday, and moves across Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. The front moves farther offshore Wednesday night. Weak
high pressure returns Thursday through Friday. Another cold front
approaches late Friday moving across Saturday and moving southeast
of the region by next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weak mid and low level forcing has resulted in clouds developing
across eastern Connecticut and eastern Long Island. In addition,
in an increasingly low level southerly flow stratus has begun to
develop. A weak surface trough was across eastern New York state
into northeastern Pennsylvania with a line of scattered showers
associated with the trough. Will continue with the chance and
slight chance pops for this afternoon.

The airmass will begin to become more humid as dew points rise
through the lower 60s this afternoon with south winds as highs as
15 to 20 mph at the coast.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic ocean beaches today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Mid level short wave trough passes through tonight with a few
showers possible. Next feature of interest will be a cold front
dropping SE across the Great Lakes tonight, approaching the NW
zones late tomorrow afternoon. Gradual height falls aloft and
increasing low-level moisture will allow for moderate instability
tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the interior. An onshore flow
near the coast will help to stabilize the airmass. The best chance
for isolated strong convection will be across the interior later
in the afternoon with CAPES over 1000 J/KG. Wind shear remains
weak, so not expecting any organization.

Conditions will be warm and muggy with dew points rising into the
upper 60s with with similar lows tonight. Highs on Tuesday may be
a degree or two cooler due to more cloud cover and continued
onshore flow. Coastal sections may have to contend with stratus
late tonight into Tuesday as the warm, moist air overruns the
cooler nearshore waters.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level trough makes slow progress east across New England
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Associated PVA noted in most model
solutions traversing across the area through early Wednesday before
moving east.

This energy departs to the northeast as closed upper low moves
across Ontario Province late in the week, with a general trough
extending across the Great Lakes region toward the east. The closed
low moves east across Quebec Province, with lowering heights and
weak PVA moving across the northeast United States next weekend.

At the surface, a slow moving cold front approaches Tuesday evening,
with a wave of low pressure along the front to the west. The front
makes slow progress across the area Tuesday night, with another
frontal boundary lagging behind Wednesday before moving through
late. High pressure builds Thursday and Friday with another cold
front moving toward or through the area Saturday. Not too confident
in how far front moves for the latter portion of the weekend.

As for sensible weather, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night due to leftover moderate
instability, convergence along the front, upper level jet and PVA
aiding development. This chance continues overnight into Wednesday
due to continuation of upper support and cold front in the vicinity.
Would expect possible shower or thunderstorm development at any time
Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly scattered in nature.

Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday with unsettled weather
returning next weekend.

Temperatures will average near normal, lower to middle 80s during
the day and 60s at night for the most part. Followed model blend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast continues to drift into
the open Atlantic waters as a cold front approaches from the west.

Important changes with 14Z AMD:

* SE sea breeze should make it to KEWR/KTEB by about 17Z, with
  occasional G15-18KT as was the case yesterday.

* Wind gusts at the other coastal terminals should be stronger
  than originally forecast. Cannot totally rule out gusts close
  to 30 kt at KJFK and close to to 25 kt at KLGA/KISP/KGON.

* Also watching low clouds advancing northward into central NJ
  and the nearby coastal waters. Think the heat of the day will
  hold these clouds off for the most part, then MVFR cigs should
  come in after dark. Exact timing is uncertain and could even be
  sooner than forecast at KJFK/KLGA/KISP. IFR cigs are now
  forecast for late tonight at KGON, and may have to consider this
  for the other coastal terminals with 18Z TAF.

Showers also possible toward daybreak Tuesday and into Tuesday
morning with MVFR conditions.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Sea breeze gusts could approach 30 kt late
this afternoon. Timing of MVFR cigs tonight uncertain.

KLGA TAF Comments: Sea breeze gusts could approach 25 kt late
this afternoon. Timing of MVFR cigs tonight uncertain.

KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional G15-18KT late this afternoon. Timing
of MVFR cigs tonight uncertain.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN, which
implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional G15-18KT late this afternoon. Timing
of MVFR cigs tonight uncertain.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled AMD.

KISP TAF Comments: Sea breeze gusts could approach 25 kt late
this afternoon. Timing of MVFR cigs tonight uncertain. Slight
chance of IFR cigs late tonight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.Tuesday morning...MVFR or lower conditions possible, with
showers mainly from NYC metro north/west, and low clouds/patchy
fog along the coast.

.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers and tstms. Low clouds and fog possible at night, with IFR
or lower conditions likely at coastal terminals.

.Wednesday morning...IFR or lower conditions still possible via
morning fog/low clouds and any stray showers.

.Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...VFR.

.Friday...MVFR or lower conditions possible in showers/tstms in
the late afternoon from NYC metro north/west, and throughout at
night.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas forecast on track. No changes at this time.

As high pressure drifts east today, southerly winds will increase
this afternoon with occasional gusts to near small craft levels,
mainly west of Fire Island Inlet to near the mouth of New York
Harbor. Similar conditions are forecast on Tuesday. Otherwise,
winds and seas will remain below small craft levels on all the
waters.

A slow moving cold front passes across the waters Tuesday
night through Wednesday as high pressure builds for the late
week period. Overall, the pressure gradient remains rather weak
during this time period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW/PW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...MET/DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW/PW




000
FXUS61 KBUF 271453
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1053 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect one more warm humid day before a weak cold front crosses
the region overnight. Cooler air will move in behind the front
for much of the remainder of the week. The more comfortable
conditions will be accompanied by the minimal chance for a shower
Tuesday during the passage of a secondary cold front...then mainly
dry weather is anticipated until the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Skies are clearing from west to east across the region in the wake
of a pre-frontal trough that crossed the region this morning. The
exception is immediately downwind of Lake Erie where the lake is
producing an area of low clouds expected to persist into the early
afternoon. Temperatures will remain at mid summer readings with
elevated humidity through today.

Tonight...a weak, moisture starved cold front will move across
the region after midnight...with legitimately cooler air slowly
making its way across the Lower Great Lakes. The more comfortable
airmass will not be fully `appreciated` until after daybreak
though...as temperatures overnight will only drop off into the low
to mid 60s for most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A sharp mid level trough will move from the central Great Lakes
Tuesday into the lower Great Lakes by Tuesday night. Several
shortwaves rotating through the trough will provide a few periods of
large scale ascent, with a pair of associated subtle surface cold
fronts providing some low level convergence. The combination of
large scale ascent, modest diurnal instability, and limited moisture
will support a few scattered showers Tuesday, mainly in the
afternoon and mainly inland from the stabilizing influences of the
lakes. The limited instability and cooling temperatures aloft may
allow lapse rates to steepen sufficiently to support a few isolated
thunderstorms as well, especially across central NY where a relative
maximum in instability is expected along the leading edge of the
trough axis.

Ongoing cold advection and increased cloud cover will keep
temperatures cooler than recent days, with highs in the mid 70s in
most locations.

Tuesday night the main mid level trough will slowly cross the area
from west to east. Ongoing weak ascent and limited moisture with the
trough passage may continue to support a few widely scattered
showers overnight, with any isolated thunder ending in the evening
with weakening diurnal instability. Coverage of the showers and
isolated storms Tuesday and Tuesday night will be very spotty at
best, with little rainfall in most areas to help with dry soil
conditions.

On Wednesday the mid level trough will continue east across eastern
NY and into New England. Enough cyclonic flow, ascent, and moisture
may remain across the eastern Lake Ontario region to support a few
lingering scattered showers. Otherwise the rest of the area will see
a mix of sun and clouds as low level moisture initially forces
diurnal cumulus to develop inland from the lakes before mixing out
later in the day. Temperatures will remain just a tad below average
with highs in the mid 70s at lower elevations and around 70 across
higher terrain.

High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes
Wednesday night with clearing skies. The clearing and light winds
combined with the dry/cool airmass will allow for good radiational
cooling, with lows in the lower to mid 50s on the lake plains and
mid to upper 40s in the cooler Southern Tier valleys and Lewis
County.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes
Thursday with abundant sunshine. Highs will rebound into the lower
80s in most locations as the airmass quickly modifies.

By Friday a mid level trough will swing east through Ontario and
Quebec, with a trailing surface cold front moving east through the
Great Lakes. This front will provide the next chance of rain by
Friday afternoon and Friday night, but similar to many fronts in the
past few weeks expect coverage of any showers and thunderstorms to
remain scattered.

High pressure then returns to the Great Lakes region for next
weekend with a return to sunshine. Temperatures will be a little
cooler Saturday behind the front with highs in the 70s, then warming
back into the lower 80s by Sunday as the airmass quickly modifies.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
low clouds and showers with MVFR to IFR cigs will improve to VFR
from west to east through 18z. VFR conditions will persist through
much of the night. A cold front may bring brief MVFR conditions
later tonight. Tuesday once again expect mainly VFR conditions but
with a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A weal cold front will cross the region Despite the passage of a
pair of frontal boundaries today and tonight...a relatively weak
sfc pressure will be in place across the Lower Great Lakes. This
will generally keep moderate southwesterlies in place today with
veering winds becoming lighter tonight. Meanwhile waves will be
well below small craft advisory levels.

On Tuesday...northwest winds in the wake of a cool front will
freshen a bit during the midday and afternoon. While it will
likely become choppy for the New York nearshore waters east of
Irondequoit Bay...conditions should remain below small craft
advisory criteria.

High pressure will then work across the Lower Great Lakes Wednesday
and Thursday...and this will keep sub advisory conditions in place
while promoting plenty of sunshine.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...LEVAN/RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...LEVAN




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271414
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1014 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening mid-level trough across the eastern Great Lakes and
southeastern Ontario will bring an increase in clouds today along
with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. The best
chance for rainfall will be across northern New York this morning.
Temperatures will not be as hot as Sunday, but afternoon highs
will still reach the low to mid 80s in most sections. Moderate south
to southwest winds are expected today, and will bring a slight
increase in humidity levels to the region. A slow- moving surface
cold front and stronger mid-level trough will move into the North
Country for Tuesday, with the potential for more widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity. The strongest thunderstorm
activity is expected from the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks
eastward across Vermont, and storms could produce heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, and small hail.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1014 AM EDT Monday...Minor updates made to previous
forecast which is in good shape for the remainder of today. Pre-
frontal trough moving into the North Country this morning is
providing a few light rain showers and/or sprinkles falling out of
a mid-cloud deck. Accumulations will be light to nil, so shouldn`t
impact any outdoor activities. Cloud cover though has kept temps
rather steady this morning in the upper 60s to low 70s, and a
slight drop is likely as the "rain" passes through, but increasing
sunshine this afternoon should bump us up to previous forecast
highs of mid 70s to low 80s in the 3-5PM time-frame.

Previous Discussion...
Elongated NE-SW oriented 850-700mb trough axis and associated
moist axis extends from swrn Quebec across the St. Lawrence Valley
and across wrn NY/nwrn PA at 11Z. This trough is in advance of
closed low well north of Lake Superior (which will be responsible
for Tuesday`s more active weather), and prevailing mid-level ridge
still in place across much of central and ern New England.
Consistent with previous forecasts, it continues to appear that
this mid-level trough will shift ewd across the North Country
through early afternoon, but gradually weaken as it encounters the
downstream ridge across New England. Low- level convergence
likewise appears limited, with 850mb thermal ridge (+14 to +15C)
still in place across ern NY into VT this afternoon, and uniform
S-SW gradient flow at low- levels. High resolution models,
including BTV4 and 12km WRFs and NCEP 4km- NAM are in good
agreement bringing existing showers into the St. Lawrence Valley
area through about 14z, and then gradually becoming less
widespread through the daylight hours. Will see some light
rain/sprinkles from prevailing mid- deck move across the
Adirondacks into the Champlain valley 13-15z, and into central VT
by 18Z. Prevailing S-SW flow (10-15mph, with gusts 25 mph
especially in the Champlain Valley) does bump dewpoints into the
lower 60s by early to mid aftn across the wrn half of the forecast
area. As such, will need to watch developing axis of SBCAPE
(500-1000 J/kg) mainly across nrn NY, with potential for a few
thunderstorms developing this afternoon. Large-scale dynamics are
generally lacking given weak low-level convergence, and ewd push
of weakening trough...but orographic influences may be sufficient
to get a few showers/tstms going across especially the nrn
Adirondacks this afternoon. Carried chance tstms across nrn NY and
slight chance for VT counties, though not expecting any severe
activity. QPF amts highest St. Lawrence into Franklin County
(0.10-0.20" this morning), but generally 0.10" or less further
east given anticipated downward trends. One hour precip totaled
0.07" at KMSS between 10-11Z. The increase in mid-level clouds
will result in high temperatures not quite as hot as yesterday,
but still expecting values mainly low-mid 80s.

Upper ridge begins to break down tonight with mid-level height
falls moving into the region as closed low digs into the nrn Great
Lakes region. Sfc cold front remains well upstream of the region,
approaching the Ottawa valley toward daybreak. Should be a warm
night with prevailing s-sw winds and mid-level clouds. Lows
generally mid-upr 60s. Can`t rule out isold rain showers in
developing cyclonic flow regime, but better forcing for ascent
holds off until the daylight hrs Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 444 AM EDT Monday...On Tuesday, conditions start out mainly
dry. Have used BTV 4 km model for timing of development of showers
and thunderstorms. This model showing showers and storms
developing over northern New York between 16z-18z on Tuesday, with
storms developing over the western slopes of the Green Mountains
around 18z Tuesday. Models showing a sharp upper trough
approaching the region from the Great lakes On Tuesday. Also, GFS
model showing 40-45 knots in the 0-6km layer of bulk shear, along
with surface based GFS model capes of 1000 to greater than 2000
j/kg by Tuesday afternoon. Have continued to use enhanced wording
from the Adirondacks eastward to Vermont for Tuesday afternoon,
with gusty winds, small hail and heavy downpours possible, mainly
from the Adirondacks eastward to Vermont. SPC has most of the
region in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Expecting most of the shower and thunderstorm activity to be over
eastern and southern Vermont by early Tuesday evening, based on
the BTV 4km model. Given rather dry antecedent conditions across
the region, am not expecting any flash flooding issues at this
time, with main threats being from gusty winds and hail. Expecting
thunderstorm activity to diminish early Tuesday evening, with the
loss of daytime surface heating.

The upper trough will move across the region on Wednesday, so have
kept in a chance of rain showers in the forecast. This upper
trough will be eats of the region by Wednesday night, so have gone
with a dry forecast for Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 444 AM EDT Monday...Drier weather will be over the region
Thursday and Thursday night, as a weak ridge of high pressure will
be over the region. Friday also starts out dry, with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms developing Friday afternoon and
continuing into Friday night as a cold front move east from the
eastern Great Lakes. An upper trough will be over the region on
Saturday, so will continue with a chance for rain showers.
expecting mainly dry conditions on Sunday, as a weak area of high
pressure slides east from the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR through the TAF period, but
weakening mid-level trough will progress ewd across nrn NY
bringing scattered showers this morning...and threat for isold
tstms early-mid afternoon. As such, will see development of mid-
level ceilings, and can`t rule out brief intervals of MVFR/IFR
conditions with any heavier showers/tstms. That activity should
become more isold this afternoon as trough weakens across VT, with
just a slight chance of -RW/-TSRA. Given timing/coverage concerns,
have carried VCSH for most of the TAF locations attm, with
prevailing -SHRA 12-14Z for KMSS/KSLK based on radar trends early
this morning. S-SW gradient flow will continue throughout the
period...generally 10-15kts, with gusts 18-20kt and locally up to
25-26kt at BTV with peak gusts expected mid to late afternoon.

Outlook 12z Tuesday through Friday...A slow moving cold front and
associated upper level trough bring widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday...with locally strong/severe storms
possible mainly from the Champlain Valley ewd. Any heavier
showers/tstms have the potential to bring brief vsby/cig
reductions into MVFR/IFR range. Upper trough lingers across NY and
New England Tuesday night and Wednesday with -SHRA expected. May
see brief MVFR conditions, but prevailing VFR expected. Upper
system clears the area by Wednesday night. Weak high pressure
building in from the west will bring patchy dense fog/LIFR MPV/SLK
06-12Z Thursday and possibly again 06-12z Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Will maintain lake wind advisory through the day Monday with South
winds 15-25kts across much of Lake Champlain. It appears winds
will continue 15-25kts through about midnight, then gradient flow
diminishes and may be able to drop the advisory for the pre-dawn
hours on Tuesday. Boaters should also be advised that the
approaching surface cold front will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms vicinity of Lake Champlain Tuesday afternoon, with a
few strong storms possible.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Banacos
MARINE...Banacos




000
FXUS61 KOKX 271412
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1012 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cold front over the Lower Great Lakes this morning
dissipates to the west of the area later today. Another cold
front approaches from the west on Tuesday and moves across the
area Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The front moves farther
offshore Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns Thursday
through Friday. Another cold front approaches late Friday moving
across Saturday and moving southeast of the region by next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Minor adjustments were made to forecast based on latest conditions.

High pressure over the region this morning gives way to a
dissipating cold front approaching from the west. The latter of
which may produce a few showers late this afternoon to the north
and west of NYC. Chances are low though with warm heights aloft
resulting in weak instability. For the most part, expect mostly
sunny skies into early this afternoon with increasing mid and high
level clouds to follow from upstream convection.

The airmass will begin to become more humid as dew points rise
through the lower 60s this afternoon with south winds as highs as
15 to 20 mph at the coast.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic ocean beaches today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Mid level short wave trough passes through tonight with a few
showers possible. Next feature of interest will be a cold front
dropping SE across the Great Lakes tonight, approaching the NW
zones late tomorrow afternoon. Gradual height falls aloft and
increasing low-level moisture will allow for moderate instability
tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the interior. An onshore flow
near the coast will help to stabilize the airmass. The best chance
for isolated strong convection will be across the interior later
in the afternoon with CAPES over 1000 J/KG. Wind shear remains
weak, so not expecting any organization.

Conditions will be warm and muggy with dew points rising into the
upper 60s with with similar lows tonight. Highs on Tuesday may be
a degree or two cooler due to more cloud cover and continued
onshore flow. Coastal sections may have to contend with stratus
late tonight into Tuesday as the warm, moist air overruns the
cooler nearshore waters.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level trough makes slow progress east across New England
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Associated PVA noted in most model
solutions traversing across the area through early Wednesday before
moving east.

This energy departs to the northeast as closed upper low moves
across Ontario Province late in the week, with a general trough
extending across the Great Lakes region toward the east. The closed
low moves east across Quebec Province, with lowering heights and
weak PVA moving across the northeast United States next weekend.

At the surface, a slow moving cold front approaches Tuesday evening,
with a wave of low pressure along the front to the west. The front
makes slow progress across the area Tuesday night, with another
frontal boundary lagging behind Wednesday before moving through
late. High pressure builds Thursday and Friday with another cold
front moving toward or through the area Saturday. Not too confident
in how far front moves for the latter portion of the weekend.

As for sensible weather, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night due to leftover moderate
instability, convergence along the front, upper level jet and PVA
aiding development. This chance continues overnight into Wednesday
due to continuation of upper support and cold front in the vicinity.
Would expect possible shower or thunderstorm development at any time
Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly scattered in nature.

Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday with unsettled weather
returning next weekend.

Temperatures will average near normal, lower to middle 80s during
the day and 60s at night for the most part. Followed model blend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast continues to drift into
the open Atlantic waters as a cold front approaches from the west.

Important changes with 14Z AMD:

* SE sea breeze should make it to KEWR/KTEB by about 17Z, with
  occasional G15-18KT as was the case yesterday.

* Wind gusts at the other coastal terminals should be stronger
  than originally forecast. Cannot totally rule out gusts close
  to 30 kt at KJFK and close to to 25 kt at KLGA/KISP/KGON.

* Also watching low clouds advancing northward into central NJ
  and the nearby coastal waters. Think the heat of the day will
  hold these clouds off for the most part, then MVFR cigs should
  come in after dark. Exact timing is uncertain and could even be
  sooner than forecast at KJFK/KLGA/KISP. IFR cigs are now
  forecast for late tonight at KGON, and may have to consider this
  for the other coastal terminals with 18Z TAF.

Showers also possible toward daybreak Tuesday and into Tuesday
morning with MVFR conditions.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Sea breeze gusts could approach 30 kt late
this afternoon. Timing of MVFR cigs tonight uncertain.

KLGA TAF Comments: Sea breeze gusts could approach 25 kt late
this afternoon. Timing of MVFR cigs tonight uncertain.

KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional G15-18KT late this afternoon. Timing
of MVFR cigs tonight uncertain.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN, which
implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional G15-18KT late this afternoon. Timing
of MVFR cigs tonight uncertain.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled AMD.

KISP TAF Comments: Sea breeze gusts could approach 25 kt late
this afternoon. Timing of MVFR cigs tonight uncertain. Slight
chance of IFR cigs late tonight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.Tuesday morning...MVFR or lower conditions possible, with
showers mainly from NYC metro north/west, and low clouds/patchy
fog along the coast.

.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers and tstms. Low clouds and fog possible at night, with IFR
or lower conditions likely at coastal terminals.

.Wednesday morning...IFR or lower conditions still possible via
morning fog/low clouds and any stray showers.

.Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...VFR.

.Friday...MVFR or lower conditions possible in showers/tstms in
the late afternoon from NYC metro north/west, and throughout at
night.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas forecast on track. No changes at this time.

As high pressure drifts east today, southerly winds will increase
this afternoon with occasional gusts to near small craft levels,
mainly west of Fire Island Inlet to near the mouth of New York
Harbor. Similar conditions are forecast on Tuesday. Otherwise,
winds and seas will remain below small craft levels on all the
waters.

A slow moving cold front passes across the waters Tuesday
night through Wednesday as high pressure builds for the late
week period. Overall, the pressure gradient remains rather weak
during this time period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW/PW
NEAR TERM...DW/PW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW/PW




000
FXUS61 KBGM 271402
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1002 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal system will spread clouds, showers and scattered
thunderstorms across the area today. Some clearing can be expected
later today and tonight then another frontal system will bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms again on Tuesday. Mainly dry
weather will return Wednesday as high pressure builds across the
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 am update...An area of showers continues to move east across
central NY with areas around the central southern tier including
Binghamton likely to see some showers within the next hour or two.
We raised POPs for much of central NY based on latest radar and
trends and also made some adjustments to temperatures for today.
Temps were lowered for the late morning into early this afternoon
due to showers moving through with many areas likely to see highs
toward the late afternoon following the showers and any storms.


615 am update... Current forecast is in good shape. Band of
showers over western NY is making slow progress east with the
leading edge now from near Syracuse through the Finger Lakes. Have
adjusted pops slightly to lower pops for the next few hours from
Binghamton down through northeast Pa as any rain looks to hold off
in that area until after 10 am. Otherwise still expecting a band
of showers with some isolated thunder to move across the area
through early afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms could
still develop later this afternoon but coverage will be less than
late this morning. Previous discussion is below:

Band of showers is moving slowly east early this morning across
western NY and northwest Pa in association with a weak surface
trough advancing east from the eastern Great Lakes. Models are in
good agreement that this band of showers will hold together and
move across central New York and northeast Pa later this morning
into early afternoon. A ribbon of modest instability will develop
along the trough axis later this morning so isolated thunderstorms
will also be possible along with the showers. Once this initial
band of showers moves east of the area... some clearing will occur
later this afternoon however the weak surface troughing will
persist across the region with dew points climbing into the mid
60s. Expect isolated showers and thunderstorms near the surface
trough in central NY late this afternoon persisting into the early
evening before things dry out completely overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Expect Tuesday to start out rain-free but rather muggy with dew
points in the mid to upper 60s. A cold front will track slowly
east across the region during the day with scattered convective
showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. At this
point the models are in fairly good agreement that the location of
the frontal zone will favor the eastern half of our area for the
highest coverage of showers Tuesday afternoon... mainly from the
I-81 corridor east. The NAM is forecasting a ribbon of 1000-2000
J/kg MLCAPE values from the Poconos to the Catskills along or just
ahead of the front by late afternoon Tuesday. As is typical the
GFS shows much less instability with MLCAPE values in that same
area generally below 500 J/kg. A compromise of around 1000 J/kg
should support some thunderstorms. Meanwhile deep-layer shear
values will be averaging 30-40 kts across the area... so if
moderate instability would develop we would have to watch for the
possibility of strong to marginally severe storms. The key will be
how quickly east the front moves and this will have to monitored
and the forecast refined over the next 36 hours. Meanwhile the
Finger Lakes area should be west of the front by late Tuesday with
most if not all convective showers east of that area.

Quiet weather will return to the area Tuesday night and Wednesday
as high pressure builds east from the Great Lakes. Dew points on
Wednesday will fall back into the 50s with near seasonal high
temperatures in the mid 70s to near 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
415 AM Update...Medium range models continue to show that an
upper level trof will remain over the northeast through the
extended forecast. Maximum temperatures through the period will
be close to normal but overnight minimums will run a little cool.
The only surface feature during the period will be a cold frontal
passage Friday into Friday night, will continue with chance pops
here. The rest of the extended will be dry as surface high
pressure will be in the vicinity Thursday and Saturday through
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weakening mid level short wave and pre-frontal trof will cross
the region this morning through early afternoon. A 4-5 hour period
of primarily VFR showers are expected with this feature. There
could be brief restrictions or a rumble of thunder but not
included due to low probability. In general the showers will occur
between 13Z-18Z at KAVP between 18Z-22Z. Conditions will remain
VFR behind the showers although restrictions are expected late
tonight due to mist and MVFR cigs.

South to southwest winds at 8-12 knots today then southerly
tonight around 5 knots.

OUTLOOK...

Tuesday...Chance of showers-thunder and associated brief
restrictions as a slow moving cold front moves through.

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.

Friday...Restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MSE
NEAR TERM...DGM/MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 271402
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1002 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal system will spread clouds, showers and scattered
thunderstorms across the area today. Some clearing can be expected
later today and tonight then another frontal system will bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms again on Tuesday. Mainly dry
weather will return Wednesday as high pressure builds across the
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 am update...An area of showers continues to move east across
central NY with areas around the central southern tier including
Binghamton likely to see some showers within the next hour or two.
We raised POPs for much of central NY based on latest radar and
trends and also made some adjustments to temperatures for today.
Temps were lowered for the late morning into early this afternoon
due to showers moving through with many areas likely to see highs
toward the late afternoon following the showers and any storms.


615 am update... Current forecast is in good shape. Band of
showers over western NY is making slow progress east with the
leading edge now from near Syracuse through the Finger Lakes. Have
adjusted pops slightly to lower pops for the next few hours from
Binghamton down through northeast Pa as any rain looks to hold off
in that area until after 10 am. Otherwise still expecting a band
of showers with some isolated thunder to move across the area
through early afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms could
still develop later this afternoon but coverage will be less than
late this morning. Previous discussion is below:

Band of showers is moving slowly east early this morning across
western NY and northwest Pa in association with a weak surface
trough advancing east from the eastern Great Lakes. Models are in
good agreement that this band of showers will hold together and
move across central New York and northeast Pa later this morning
into early afternoon. A ribbon of modest instability will develop
along the trough axis later this morning so isolated thunderstorms
will also be possible along with the showers. Once this initial
band of showers moves east of the area... some clearing will occur
later this afternoon however the weak surface troughing will
persist across the region with dew points climbing into the mid
60s. Expect isolated showers and thunderstorms near the surface
trough in central NY late this afternoon persisting into the early
evening before things dry out completely overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Expect Tuesday to start out rain-free but rather muggy with dew
points in the mid to upper 60s. A cold front will track slowly
east across the region during the day with scattered convective
showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. At this
point the models are in fairly good agreement that the location of
the frontal zone will favor the eastern half of our area for the
highest coverage of showers Tuesday afternoon... mainly from the
I-81 corridor east. The NAM is forecasting a ribbon of 1000-2000
J/kg MLCAPE values from the Poconos to the Catskills along or just
ahead of the front by late afternoon Tuesday. As is typical the
GFS shows much less instability with MLCAPE values in that same
area generally below 500 J/kg. A compromise of around 1000 J/kg
should support some thunderstorms. Meanwhile deep-layer shear
values will be averaging 30-40 kts across the area... so if
moderate instability would develop we would have to watch for the
possibility of strong to marginally severe storms. The key will be
how quickly east the front moves and this will have to monitored
and the forecast refined over the next 36 hours. Meanwhile the
Finger Lakes area should be west of the front by late Tuesday with
most if not all convective showers east of that area.

Quiet weather will return to the area Tuesday night and Wednesday
as high pressure builds east from the Great Lakes. Dew points on
Wednesday will fall back into the 50s with near seasonal high
temperatures in the mid 70s to near 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
415 AM Update...Medium range models continue to show that an
upper level trof will remain over the northeast through the
extended forecast. Maximum temperatures through the period will
be close to normal but overnight minimums will run a little cool.
The only surface feature during the period will be a cold frontal
passage Friday into Friday night, will continue with chance pops
here. The rest of the extended will be dry as surface high
pressure will be in the vicinity Thursday and Saturday through
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weakening mid level short wave and pre-frontal trof will cross
the region this morning through early afternoon. A 4-5 hour period
of primarily VFR showers are expected with this feature. There
could be brief restrictions or a rumble of thunder but not
included due to low probability. In general the showers will occur
between 13Z-18Z at KAVP between 18Z-22Z. Conditions will remain
VFR behind the showers although restrictions are expected late
tonight due to mist and MVFR cigs.

South to southwest winds at 8-12 knots today then southerly
tonight around 5 knots.

OUTLOOK...

Tuesday...Chance of showers-thunder and associated brief
restrictions as a slow moving cold front moves through.

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.

Friday...Restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MSE
NEAR TERM...DGM/MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KALY 271343
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
943 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 930 AM EDT...Line of showers and some embedded thunderstorms
per the NLDN were into portions of the Adirondack Park and western
Mohawk Valley. Per extrapolation of these showers in conjunction
with the HRRR/HRRRX, we will time these showers/storms expanding
further eastward with most of the Hudson Valley region by early
afternoon under cloudy conditions with scattered convection as
weak surface trough passes through. As for temperatures, after a
mild start to the day, there remains enough sun over the eastern
2/3rds of the local county warning area to keep the expected high
temperatures (mainly upper 70s to mid 80s).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The aforementioned pre-frontal trough will stall and become
diffuse near western New England tonight. So will only mention
isolated to widely scattered showers. It will be another mild
night with a southerly breezy persisting, with low temps in the
60s.

Tuesday is expected to be the most active day of the week in
terms of convective potential. At the surface, a cold front will
gradually push eastward across the region during the afternoon and
evening. Aloft, a positive to neutral tilt upper level trough is
forecast to deepen just to our west over the eastern Great Lakes.
Height falls and cyclonic vorticity advection aloft combined with
low level convergence along the cold front should result in fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially during
the afternoon across eastern NY spreading eastward to western New
England by evening.

There is a marginal risk for some of the thunderstorms to become
severe if sufficient instability can develop. Some breaks of
sunshine are expected ahead of the cold front, but it is unclear
how unstable it will get as model guidance differs with the GFS
indicating 500-1500 J/Kg of SBCAPE, while the NAM has more robust
values of around 1500-3000 J/Kg. Should more sunshine materialize,
the NAM values would be reasonable, but this is uncertain at this
time. Deep layer shear will be increasing to around 25-40 kt, so
organized severe storms will be possible given ample buoyancy.
Will mention the marginal risk in HWO.

Showers will continue Tuesday night, as the cold front only
gradually makes eastward progress, while the upper level trough
axis remains to our west with a continued cyclonic flow.
Coverage/intensity of thunder should decrease by late evening
though as instability is forecast to wane.

Will continue to mention chance pops for scattered showers with
isolated thunder for Wednesday, siding with the slower ECMWF/NAM
guidance compared to faster GFS. The upper level trough may become
a closed low, which would slow its progress. The more progressive
GFS continues to show and open wave. Max temps Wednesday should be
cooler than recent days, but close to normal for late June.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The period is expected to start out with fair weather and
seasonably warm temperatures. At the surface high pressure is
expected to be over the region. While aloft, the region is
expected to be between short wave trough.

A cold front will be on the approaches from the northwest as we
close out the work week and head into the long holiday weekend.
Convection is expected as the front approaches on Friday and
crosses the region Friday night.

Guidance indicates an upper level low should develop over the
Great Lakes region with it becoming stacked. This stacked low then
is modeled to move gradually eastward across eastern Canada over
the holiday weekend as short waves rotating about it maintaining
an upper level trough over the region. At this time, it appears
the weather across the local area should be fair for the holiday
weekend as the upper low is modeled to remain far enough to our
north while the cold front that moves through is forecast to stall
far enough to our south. A wave of low pressure is expected to
move eastward along this boundary. Subtle changes in the expected
locations of these features will result in changes to a fair
weather forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will weaken and slide
offshore today. In the meantime, a cold front will approach from
the west. Heights will fall across the region however upper level
support will remain well to the west. convection to move across
across the local area today impacting the TAF sites mainly during
the afternoon into the evening.

Expecting VFR conditions to prevail through much of the evening.
MVFR conditions are expected to develop overnight initially due
to ceilings then some fog is expected to form.

South-southwest flow will increasing to 10 to 12 knots with some
gusts into the 20s. The winds will decrease in the evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 50 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 80 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Tuesday
will be around 50 to 60 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 10 to 15 mph with gusts
around 20 mph. Southerly winds will decrease to 5 to 10 mph
tonight. Winds on Tuesday will be south-southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There is a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms today, as a
weakening frontal boundary approaches. There will be a better
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Two day rainfall totals
could reach one half to one inch, with some isolated higher
amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV

www.weather.gov/albany




000
FXUS61 KOKX 271342
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
942 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cold front over the Lower Great Lakes this morning
dissipates to the west of the area later today. Another cold
front approaches from the west on Tuesday and moves across the
area Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The front moves farther
offshore Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns Thursday
through Friday. Another cold front approaches late Friday moving
across Saturday and moving southeast of the region by next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Minor adjustments were made to forecast based on latest conditions.

High pressure over the region this morning gives way to a
dissipating cold front approaching from the west. The latter of
which may produce a few showers late this afternoon to the north
and west of NYC. Chances are low though with warm heights aloft
resulting in weak instability. For the most part, expect mostly
sunny skies into early this afternoon with increasing mid and high
level clouds to follow from upstream convection.

The airmass will begin to become more humid as dew points rise
through the lower 60s this afternoon with south winds as highs as
15 to 20 mph at the coast.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic ocean beaches today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Mid level short wave trough passes through tonight with a few
showers possible. Next feature of interest will be a cold front
dropping SE across the Great Lakes tonight, approaching the NW
zones late tomorrow afternoon. Gradual height falls aloft and
increasing low-level moisture will allow for moderate instability
tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the interior. An onshore flow
near the coast will help to stabilize the airmass. The best chance
for isolated strong convection will be across the interior later
in the afternoon with CAPES over 1000 J/KG. Wind shear remains
weak, so not expecting any organization.

Conditions will be warm and muggy with dew points rising into the
upper 60s with with similar lows tonight. Highs on Tuesday may be
a degree or two cooler due to more cloud cover and continued
onshore flow. Coastal sections may have to contend with stratus
late tonight into Tuesday as the warm, moist air overruns the
cooler nearshore waters.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level trough makes slow progress east across New England
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Associated PVA noted in most model
solutions traversing across the area through early Wednesday before
moving east.

This energy departs to the northeast as closed upper low moves
across Ontario Province late in the week, with a general trough
extending across the Great Lakes region toward the east. The closed
low moves east across Quebec Province, with lowering heights and
weak PVA moving across the northeast United States next weekend.

At the surface, a slow moving cold front approaches Tuesday evening,
with a wave of low pressure along the front to the west. The front
makes slow progress across the area Tuesday night, with another
frontal boundary lagging behind Wednesday before moving through
late. High pressure builds Thursday and Friday with another cold
front moving toward or through the area Saturday. Not too confident
in how far front moves for the latter portion of the weekend.

As for sensible weather, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night due to leftover moderate
instability, convergence along the front, upper level jet and PVA
aiding development. This chance continues overnight into Wednesday
due to continuation of upper support and cold front in the vicinity.
Would expect possible shower or thunderstorm development at any time
Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly scattered in nature.

Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday with unsettled weather
returning next weekend.

Temperatures will average near normal, lower to middle 80s during
the day and 60s at night for the most part. Followed model blend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast continues to drift into
the open Atlantic waters as a cold front approaches from the west.

VFR forecast through at least 06Z Tuesday.

MVFR conditions should hold off until after 06Z Tuesday as CIGs
lower to around 2500 feet. Showers possible towards daybreak
Tuesday and through Tuesday morning with MVFR conditions.

SW winds 5-10 KT will become S 10-15 KT later this morning. Sea
breezes will develop this afternoon, turning winds S. Coastal jet
will develop at KJFK, and winds will increase to 15-20 KT with 20-25
KT gusts there. For most other terminals, S winds will range from 10-
15 KT with gusts up to 20 KT.

S winds become SW after 00Z Tuesday, and diminish to 5-10 KT.

 ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 15Z, and then winds
increase to 15-20 KT with gusts up to 25 KT after 18Z. Timing of
wind speed increases could be off by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

KLGA TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 19Z. Timing could be off
by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate confidence in forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: S winds increase to 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20
KT after 17Z, but timing could be off by an hour or so. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KISP TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. Sea breeze
likely after 15Z, with speeds increasing to around 15 KT with gusts
up to 20 KT after 18Z. Timing could be off by an hour or so.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.Tuesday morning...MVFR or lower conditions possible, with
showers mainly from NYC metro north/west, and low clouds/patchy
fog along the coast especially KGON/KISP.

.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers and tstms. Stratus and fog possible at night, with IFR or
lower conditions likely at coastal terminals.

.Wednesday morning...IFR or lower conditions still possible via
morning fog/low clouds and any stray showers.

.Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...VFR.

.Friday...MVFR or lower conditions with showers/tstms possible in
the late afternoon from NYC metro north/west, and throughout at
night.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas forecast on track. No changes at this time.

As high pressure drifts east today, southerly winds will increase
this afternoon with occasional gusts to near small craft levels,
mainly west of Fire Island Inlet to near the mouth of New York
Harbor. Similar conditions are forecast on Tuesday. Otherwise,
winds and seas will remain below small craft levels on all the
waters.

A slow moving cold front passes across the waters Tuesday
night through Wednesday as high pressure builds for the late
week period. Overall, the pressure gradient remains rather weak
during this time period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271127
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
727 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening mid-level trough across the eastern Great Lakes and
southeastern Ontario will bring an increase in clouds today along
with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. The best
chance for rainfall will be across northern New York this morning.
Temperatures will not be as hot as Sunday, but afternoon highs
will still reach the low to mid 80s in most sections. Moderate south
to southwest winds are expected today, and will bring a slight
increase in humidity levels to the region. A slow- moving surface
cold front and stronger mid-level trough will move into the North
Country for Tuesday, with the potential for more widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity. The strongest thunderstorm
activity is expected from the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks
eastward across Vermont, and storms could produce heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, and small hail.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 710 AM EDT Monday...Elongated NE-SW oriented 850-700mb
trough axis and associated moist axis extends from swrn Quebec
across the St. Lawrence Valley and across wrn NY/nwrn PA at 11Z.
This trough is in advance of closed low well north of Lake
Superior (which will be responsible for Tuesday`s more active
weather), and prevailing mid-level ridge still in place across
much of central and ern New England. Consistent with previous
forecasts, it continues to appear that this mid-level trough will
shift ewd across the North Country through early afternoon, but
gradually weaken as it encounters the downstream ridge across New
England. Low- level convergence likewise appears limited, with
850mb thermal ridge (+14 to +15C) still in place across ern NY
into VT this afternoon, and uniform S-SW gradient flow at low-
levels. High resolution models, including BTV4 and 12km WRFs and
NCEP 4km-NAM are in good agreement bringing existing showers into
the St. Lawrence Valley area through about 14z, and then gradually
becoming less widespread through the daylight hours. Will see some
light rain/sprinkles from prevailing mid- deck move across the
Adirondacks into the Champlain valley 13-15z, and into central VT
by 18Z. Prevailing S-SW flow (10-15mph, with gusts 25 mph
especially in the Champlain Valley) does bump dewpoints into the
lower 60s by early to mid aftn across the wrn half of the forecast
area. As such, will need to watch developing axis of SBCAPE
(500-1000 J/kg) mainly across nrn NY, with potential for a few
thunderstorms developing this afternoon. Large-scale dynamics are
generally lacking given weak low-level convergence, and ewd push
of weakening trough...but orographic influences may be sufficient
to get a few showers/tstms going across especially the nrn
Adirondacks this afternoon. Carried chance tstms across nrn NY and
slight chance for VT counties, though not expecting any severe
activity. QPF amts highest St. Lawrence into Franklin County
(0.10-0.20" this morning), but generally 0.10" or less further
east given anticipated downward trends. One hour precip totaled
0.07" at KMSS between 10-11Z. The increase in mid-level clouds
will result in high temperatures not quite as hot as yesterday,
but still expecting values mainly low-mid 80s.

Upper ridge begins to break down tonight with mid-level height
falls moving into the region as closed low digs into the nrn Great
Lakes region. Sfc cold front remains well upstream of the region,
approaching the Ottawa valley toward daybreak. Should be a warm
night with prevailing s-sw winds and mid-level clouds. Lows
generally mid-upr 60s. Can`t rule out isold rain showers in
developing cyclonic flow regime, but better forcing for ascent
holds off until the daylight hrs Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 444 AM EDT Monday...On Tuesday, conditions start out mainly
dry. Have used BTV 4 km model for timing of development of showers
and thunderstorms. This model showing showers and storms
developing over northern New York between 16z-18z on Tuesday, with
storms developing over the western slopes of the Green Mountains
around 18z Tuesday. Models showing a sharp upper trough
approaching the region from the Great lakes On Tuesday. Also, GFS
model showing 40-45 knots in the 0-6km layer of bulk shear, along
with surface based GFS model capes of 1000 to greater than 2000
j/kg by Tuesday afternoon. Have continued to use enhanced wording
from the Adirondacks eastward to Vermont for Tuesday afternoon,
with gusty winds, small hail and heavy downpours possible, mainly
from the Adirondacks eastward to Vermont. SPC has most of the
region in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Expecting most of the shower and thunderstorm activity to be over
eastern and southern Vermont by early Tuesday evening, based on
the BTV 4km model. Given rather dry antecedent conditions across
the region, am not expecting any flash flooding issues at this
time, with main threats being from gusty winds and hail. Expecting
thunderstorm activity to diminish early Tuesday evening, with the
loss of daytime surface heating.

The upper trough will move across the region on Wednesday, so have
kept in a chance of rain showers in the forecast. This upper
trough will be eats of the region by Wednesday night, so have gone
with a dry forecast for Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 444 AM EDT Monday...Drier weather will be over the region
Thursday and Thursday night, as a weak ridge of high pressure will
be over the region. Friday also starts out dry, with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms developing Friday afternoon and
continuing into Friday night as a cold front move east from the
eastern Great Lakes. An upper trough will be over the region on
Saturday, so will continue with a chance for rain showers.
expecting mainly dry conditions on Sunday, as a weak area of high
pressure slides east from the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR through the TAF period, but
weakening mid-level trough will progress ewd across nrn NY
bringing scattered showers this morning...and threat for isold
tstms early-mid afternoon. As such, will see development of mid-
level ceilings, and can`t rule out brief intervals of MVFR/IFR
conditions with any heavier showers/tstms. That activity should
become more isold this afternoon as trough weakens across VT, with
just a slight chance of -RW/-TSRA. Given timing/coverage concerns,
have carried VCSH for most of the TAF locations attm, with
prevailing -SHRA 12-14Z for KMSS/KSLK based on radar trends early
this morning. S-SW gradient flow will continue throughout the
period...generally 10-15kts, with gusts 18-20kt and locally up to
25-26kt at BTV with peak gusts expected mid to late afternoon.

Outlook 12z Tuesday through Friday...A slow moving cold front and
associated upper level trough bring widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday...with locally strong/severe storms
possible mainly from the Champlain Valley ewd. Any heavier
showers/tstms have the potential to bring brief vsby/cig
reductions into MVFR/IFR range. Upper trough lingers across NY and
New England Tuesday night and Wednesday with -SHRA expected. May
see brief MVFR conditions, but prevailing VFR expected. Upper
system clears the area by Wednesday night. Weak high pressure
building in from the west will bring patchy dense fog/LIFR MPV/SLK
06-12Z Thursday and possibly again 06-12z Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Will maintain lake wind advisory through the day Monday with South
winds 15-25kts across much of Lake Champlain. It appears winds
will continue 15-25kts through about midnight, then gradient flow
diminishes and may be able to drop the advisory for the pre-dawn
hours on Tuesday. Boaters should also be advised that the
approaching surface cold front will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms vicinity of Lake Champlain Tuesday afternoon, with a
few strong storms possible.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
A faulty switch is causing an issue with dissemination of radar
data from KCXX and KTYX to non FAA comms lines. We hope to have
these data restored by 13Z. Thanks for your patience.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Banacos
MARINE...Banacos
EQUIPMENT...Banacos




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271127
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
727 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening mid-level trough across the eastern Great Lakes and
southeastern Ontario will bring an increase in clouds today along
with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. The best
chance for rainfall will be across northern New York this morning.
Temperatures will not be as hot as Sunday, but afternoon highs
will still reach the low to mid 80s in most sections. Moderate south
to southwest winds are expected today, and will bring a slight
increase in humidity levels to the region. A slow- moving surface
cold front and stronger mid-level trough will move into the North
Country for Tuesday, with the potential for more widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity. The strongest thunderstorm
activity is expected from the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks
eastward across Vermont, and storms could produce heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, and small hail.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 710 AM EDT Monday...Elongated NE-SW oriented 850-700mb
trough axis and associated moist axis extends from swrn Quebec
across the St. Lawrence Valley and across wrn NY/nwrn PA at 11Z.
This trough is in advance of closed low well north of Lake
Superior (which will be responsible for Tuesday`s more active
weather), and prevailing mid-level ridge still in place across
much of central and ern New England. Consistent with previous
forecasts, it continues to appear that this mid-level trough will
shift ewd across the North Country through early afternoon, but
gradually weaken as it encounters the downstream ridge across New
England. Low- level convergence likewise appears limited, with
850mb thermal ridge (+14 to +15C) still in place across ern NY
into VT this afternoon, and uniform S-SW gradient flow at low-
levels. High resolution models, including BTV4 and 12km WRFs and
NCEP 4km-NAM are in good agreement bringing existing showers into
the St. Lawrence Valley area through about 14z, and then gradually
becoming less widespread through the daylight hours. Will see some
light rain/sprinkles from prevailing mid- deck move across the
Adirondacks into the Champlain valley 13-15z, and into central VT
by 18Z. Prevailing S-SW flow (10-15mph, with gusts 25 mph
especially in the Champlain Valley) does bump dewpoints into the
lower 60s by early to mid aftn across the wrn half of the forecast
area. As such, will need to watch developing axis of SBCAPE
(500-1000 J/kg) mainly across nrn NY, with potential for a few
thunderstorms developing this afternoon. Large-scale dynamics are
generally lacking given weak low-level convergence, and ewd push
of weakening trough...but orographic influences may be sufficient
to get a few showers/tstms going across especially the nrn
Adirondacks this afternoon. Carried chance tstms across nrn NY and
slight chance for VT counties, though not expecting any severe
activity. QPF amts highest St. Lawrence into Franklin County
(0.10-0.20" this morning), but generally 0.10" or less further
east given anticipated downward trends. One hour precip totaled
0.07" at KMSS between 10-11Z. The increase in mid-level clouds
will result in high temperatures not quite as hot as yesterday,
but still expecting values mainly low-mid 80s.

Upper ridge begins to break down tonight with mid-level height
falls moving into the region as closed low digs into the nrn Great
Lakes region. Sfc cold front remains well upstream of the region,
approaching the Ottawa valley toward daybreak. Should be a warm
night with prevailing s-sw winds and mid-level clouds. Lows
generally mid-upr 60s. Can`t rule out isold rain showers in
developing cyclonic flow regime, but better forcing for ascent
holds off until the daylight hrs Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 444 AM EDT Monday...On Tuesday, conditions start out mainly
dry. Have used BTV 4 km model for timing of development of showers
and thunderstorms. This model showing showers and storms
developing over northern New York between 16z-18z on Tuesday, with
storms developing over the western slopes of the Green Mountains
around 18z Tuesday. Models showing a sharp upper trough
approaching the region from the Great lakes On Tuesday. Also, GFS
model showing 40-45 knots in the 0-6km layer of bulk shear, along
with surface based GFS model capes of 1000 to greater than 2000
j/kg by Tuesday afternoon. Have continued to use enhanced wording
from the Adirondacks eastward to Vermont for Tuesday afternoon,
with gusty winds, small hail and heavy downpours possible, mainly
from the Adirondacks eastward to Vermont. SPC has most of the
region in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Expecting most of the shower and thunderstorm activity to be over
eastern and southern Vermont by early Tuesday evening, based on
the BTV 4km model. Given rather dry antecedent conditions across
the region, am not expecting any flash flooding issues at this
time, with main threats being from gusty winds and hail. Expecting
thunderstorm activity to diminish early Tuesday evening, with the
loss of daytime surface heating.

The upper trough will move across the region on Wednesday, so have
kept in a chance of rain showers in the forecast. This upper
trough will be eats of the region by Wednesday night, so have gone
with a dry forecast for Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 444 AM EDT Monday...Drier weather will be over the region
Thursday and Thursday night, as a weak ridge of high pressure will
be over the region. Friday also starts out dry, with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms developing Friday afternoon and
continuing into Friday night as a cold front move east from the
eastern Great Lakes. An upper trough will be over the region on
Saturday, so will continue with a chance for rain showers.
expecting mainly dry conditions on Sunday, as a weak area of high
pressure slides east from the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR through the TAF period, but
weakening mid-level trough will progress ewd across nrn NY
bringing scattered showers this morning...and threat for isold
tstms early-mid afternoon. As such, will see development of mid-
level ceilings, and can`t rule out brief intervals of MVFR/IFR
conditions with any heavier showers/tstms. That activity should
become more isold this afternoon as trough weakens across VT, with
just a slight chance of -RW/-TSRA. Given timing/coverage concerns,
have carried VCSH for most of the TAF locations attm, with
prevailing -SHRA 12-14Z for KMSS/KSLK based on radar trends early
this morning. S-SW gradient flow will continue throughout the
period...generally 10-15kts, with gusts 18-20kt and locally up to
25-26kt at BTV with peak gusts expected mid to late afternoon.

Outlook 12z Tuesday through Friday...A slow moving cold front and
associated upper level trough bring widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday...with locally strong/severe storms
possible mainly from the Champlain Valley ewd. Any heavier
showers/tstms have the potential to bring brief vsby/cig
reductions into MVFR/IFR range. Upper trough lingers across NY and
New England Tuesday night and Wednesday with -SHRA expected. May
see brief MVFR conditions, but prevailing VFR expected. Upper
system clears the area by Wednesday night. Weak high pressure
building in from the west will bring patchy dense fog/LIFR MPV/SLK
06-12Z Thursday and possibly again 06-12z Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Will maintain lake wind advisory through the day Monday with South
winds 15-25kts across much of Lake Champlain. It appears winds
will continue 15-25kts through about midnight, then gradient flow
diminishes and may be able to drop the advisory for the pre-dawn
hours on Tuesday. Boaters should also be advised that the
approaching surface cold front will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms vicinity of Lake Champlain Tuesday afternoon, with a
few strong storms possible.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
A faulty switch is causing an issue with dissemination of radar
data from KCXX and KTYX to non FAA comms lines. We hope to have
these data restored by 13Z. Thanks for your patience.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Banacos
MARINE...Banacos
EQUIPMENT...Banacos




000
FXUS61 KOKX 271121
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
721 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cold front over the Lower Great Lakes this morning
dissipates to the west of the area later today. Another cold
front approaches from the west on Tuesday and moves across the
area Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The front moves farther
offshore Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns Thursday
through Friday. Another cold front approaches late Friday moving
across Saturday and moving southeast of the region by next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Minor adjustments were made to forecast based on latest conditions.

High pressure over the region this morning gives way to a
dissipating cold front approaching from the west. The latter of
which may produce a few showers late this afternoon to the north
and west of NYC. Chances are low though with warm heights aloft
resulting in weak instability. For the most part, expect mostly
sunny skies into early this afternoon with increasing mid and high
level clouds to follow from upstream convection.

Highs will range from the mid 70s at the coast to near 85 across
the interior. This looks to be a couple of degrees shy of normal.
It will also begin to become more humid as dew points rise through
the lower 60s this afternoon with south winds as highs as 15 to 20
mph at the coast.

There is a borderline low to moderate risk for the development of
rip currents at Atlantic ocean beaches today. If incoming swell
energy falls to around 1 ft as depicted by guidance, rip
development risk would be low, but there is some uncertainty on
how quickly that will occur. With that said, 15-20 kt afternoon
coastal jet development should have rip risk increasing to
moderate across NYC and Western LI beaches in the late
afternoon/evening with increased wind waves.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Mid level short wave trough passes through tonight with a few
showers possible. Next feature of interest will be a cold front
dropping SE across the Great Lakes tonight, approaching the NW
zones late tomorrow afternoon. Gradual height falls aloft and
increasing low-level moisture will allow for moderate instability
tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the interior. An onshore flow
near the coast will help to stabilize the airmass. The best chance
for isolated strong convection will be across the interior later
in the afternoon with CAPES over 1000 J/KG. Wind shear remains
weak, so not expecting any organization.

Conditions will be warm and muggy with dew points rising into the
upper 60s with with similar lows tonight. Highs on Tuesday may be
a degree or two cooler due to more cloud cover and continued
onshore flow. Coastal sections may have to contend with stratus
late tonight into Tuesday as the warm, moist air overruns the
cooler nearshore waters.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level trough makes slow progress east across New England
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Associated PVA noted in most model
solutions traversing across the area through early Wednesday before
moving east.

This energy departs to the northeast as closed upper low moves
across Ontario Province late in the week, with a general trough
extending across the Great Lakes region toward the east. The closed
low moves east across Quebec Province, with lowering heights and
weak PVA moving across the northeast United States next weekend.

At the surface, a slow moving cold front approaches Tuesday evening,
with a wave of low pressure along the front to the west. The front
makes slow progress across the area Tuesday night, with another
frontal boundary lagging behind Wednesday before moving through
late. High pressure builds Thursday and Friday with another cold
front moving toward or through the area Saturday. Not too confident
in how far front moves for the latter portion of the weekend.

As for sensible weather, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night due to leftover moderate
instability, convergence along the front, upper level jet and PVA
aiding development. This chance continues overnight into Wednesday
due to continuation of upper support and cold front in the vicinity.
Would expect possible shower or thunderstorm development at any time
Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly scattered in nature.

Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday with unsettled weather
returning next weekend.

Temperatures will average near normal, lower to middle 80s during
the day and 60s at night for the most part. Followed model blend.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast continues to drift into
the open Atlantic waters as a cold front approaches from the west.

VFR forecast through at least 06Z Tuesday.

MVFR conditions should hold off until after 06Z Tuesday as CIGs
lower to around 2500 feet. Showers possible towards daybreak
Tuesday and through Tuesday morning with MVFR conditions.

SW winds 5-10 KT will become S 10-15 KT later this morning. Sea
breezes will develop this afternoon, turning winds S. Coastal jet
will develop at KJFK, and winds will increase to 15-20 KT with 20-25
KT gusts there. For most other terminals, S winds will range from 10-
15 KT with gusts up to 20 KT.

S winds become SW after 00Z Tuesday, and diminish to 5-10 KT.

 ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 15Z, and then winds
increase to 15-20 KT with gusts up to 25 KT after 18Z. Timing of
wind speed increases could be off by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

KLGA TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 19Z. Timing could be off
by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate confidence in forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: S winds increase to 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20
KT after 17Z, but timing could be off by an hour or so. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KISP TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. Sea breeze
likely after 15Z, with speeds increasing to around 15 KT with gusts
up to 20 KT after 18Z. Timing could be off by an hour or so.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.Tuesday morning...MVFR or lower conditions possible, with
showers mainly from NYC metro north/west, and low clouds/patchy
fog along the coast especially KGON/KISP.

.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers and tstms. Stratus and fog possible at night, with IFR or
lower conditions likely at coastal terminals.

.Wednesday morning...IFR or lower conditions still possible via
morning fog/low clouds and any stray showers.

.Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...VFR.

.Friday...MVFR or lower conditions with showers/tstms possible in
the late afternoon from NYC metro north/west, and throughout at
night.

&&

.MARINE...
As high pressure drifts east today, southerly winds will increase
this afternoon with occasional gusts to near small craft levels,
mainly west of Fire Island Inlet to near the mouth of New York
Harbor. Similar conditions are forecast on Tuesday. Otherwise,
winds and seas will remain below small craft levels on all the
waters.

A slow moving cold front passes across the waters Tuesday
night through Wednesday as high pressure builds for the late
week period. Overall, the pressure gradient remains rather weak
during this time period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW/PW
NEAR TERM...DW/PW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW/PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 271121
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
721 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cold front over the Lower Great Lakes this morning
dissipates to the west of the area later today. Another cold
front approaches from the west on Tuesday and moves across the
area Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The front moves farther
offshore Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns Thursday
through Friday. Another cold front approaches late Friday moving
across Saturday and moving southeast of the region by next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Minor adjustments were made to forecast based on latest conditions.

High pressure over the region this morning gives way to a
dissipating cold front approaching from the west. The latter of
which may produce a few showers late this afternoon to the north
and west of NYC. Chances are low though with warm heights aloft
resulting in weak instability. For the most part, expect mostly
sunny skies into early this afternoon with increasing mid and high
level clouds to follow from upstream convection.

Highs will range from the mid 70s at the coast to near 85 across
the interior. This looks to be a couple of degrees shy of normal.
It will also begin to become more humid as dew points rise through
the lower 60s this afternoon with south winds as highs as 15 to 20
mph at the coast.

There is a borderline low to moderate risk for the development of
rip currents at Atlantic ocean beaches today. If incoming swell
energy falls to around 1 ft as depicted by guidance, rip
development risk would be low, but there is some uncertainty on
how quickly that will occur. With that said, 15-20 kt afternoon
coastal jet development should have rip risk increasing to
moderate across NYC and Western LI beaches in the late
afternoon/evening with increased wind waves.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Mid level short wave trough passes through tonight with a few
showers possible. Next feature of interest will be a cold front
dropping SE across the Great Lakes tonight, approaching the NW
zones late tomorrow afternoon. Gradual height falls aloft and
increasing low-level moisture will allow for moderate instability
tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the interior. An onshore flow
near the coast will help to stabilize the airmass. The best chance
for isolated strong convection will be across the interior later
in the afternoon with CAPES over 1000 J/KG. Wind shear remains
weak, so not expecting any organization.

Conditions will be warm and muggy with dew points rising into the
upper 60s with with similar lows tonight. Highs on Tuesday may be
a degree or two cooler due to more cloud cover and continued
onshore flow. Coastal sections may have to contend with stratus
late tonight into Tuesday as the warm, moist air overruns the
cooler nearshore waters.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level trough makes slow progress east across New England
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Associated PVA noted in most model
solutions traversing across the area through early Wednesday before
moving east.

This energy departs to the northeast as closed upper low moves
across Ontario Province late in the week, with a general trough
extending across the Great Lakes region toward the east. The closed
low moves east across Quebec Province, with lowering heights and
weak PVA moving across the northeast United States next weekend.

At the surface, a slow moving cold front approaches Tuesday evening,
with a wave of low pressure along the front to the west. The front
makes slow progress across the area Tuesday night, with another
frontal boundary lagging behind Wednesday before moving through
late. High pressure builds Thursday and Friday with another cold
front moving toward or through the area Saturday. Not too confident
in how far front moves for the latter portion of the weekend.

As for sensible weather, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night due to leftover moderate
instability, convergence along the front, upper level jet and PVA
aiding development. This chance continues overnight into Wednesday
due to continuation of upper support and cold front in the vicinity.
Would expect possible shower or thunderstorm development at any time
Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly scattered in nature.

Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday with unsettled weather
returning next weekend.

Temperatures will average near normal, lower to middle 80s during
the day and 60s at night for the most part. Followed model blend.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast continues to drift into
the open Atlantic waters as a cold front approaches from the west.

VFR forecast through at least 06Z Tuesday.

MVFR conditions should hold off until after 06Z Tuesday as CIGs
lower to around 2500 feet. Showers possible towards daybreak
Tuesday and through Tuesday morning with MVFR conditions.

SW winds 5-10 KT will become S 10-15 KT later this morning. Sea
breezes will develop this afternoon, turning winds S. Coastal jet
will develop at KJFK, and winds will increase to 15-20 KT with 20-25
KT gusts there. For most other terminals, S winds will range from 10-
15 KT with gusts up to 20 KT.

S winds become SW after 00Z Tuesday, and diminish to 5-10 KT.

 ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 15Z, and then winds
increase to 15-20 KT with gusts up to 25 KT after 18Z. Timing of
wind speed increases could be off by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

KLGA TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 19Z. Timing could be off
by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate confidence in forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: S winds increase to 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20
KT after 17Z, but timing could be off by an hour or so. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KISP TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. Sea breeze
likely after 15Z, with speeds increasing to around 15 KT with gusts
up to 20 KT after 18Z. Timing could be off by an hour or so.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.Tuesday morning...MVFR or lower conditions possible, with
showers mainly from NYC metro north/west, and low clouds/patchy
fog along the coast especially KGON/KISP.

.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers and tstms. Stratus and fog possible at night, with IFR or
lower conditions likely at coastal terminals.

.Wednesday morning...IFR or lower conditions still possible via
morning fog/low clouds and any stray showers.

.Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...VFR.

.Friday...MVFR or lower conditions with showers/tstms possible in
the late afternoon from NYC metro north/west, and throughout at
night.

&&

.MARINE...
As high pressure drifts east today, southerly winds will increase
this afternoon with occasional gusts to near small craft levels,
mainly west of Fire Island Inlet to near the mouth of New York
Harbor. Similar conditions are forecast on Tuesday. Otherwise,
winds and seas will remain below small craft levels on all the
waters.

A slow moving cold front passes across the waters Tuesday
night through Wednesday as high pressure builds for the late
week period. Overall, the pressure gradient remains rather weak
during this time period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW/PW
NEAR TERM...DW/PW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW/PW




000
FXUS61 KBUF 271055
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
655 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Some very beneficial showers and embedded thunderstorms will cross
the region early today ahead of a weak cool front...then cooler air
will move in behind the front for much of the remainder of the week.
The more comfortable conditions will be accompanied by the minimal
chance for a shower Tuesday during the passage of a secondary cold
front...then mainly dry weather is anticipated until the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A robust shortwave in the vcnty of James Bay will push a pair of
frontal boundaries across our region today and tonight...with the
first feature helping to generate some badly needed rainfall.

The first front is actually more of a pre-frontal trough...as there
will essentially be no airmass change in its wake. H85 temps that
were in the upper teens C Sunday evening will be in the mid to upper
teens C for much of today...so our apparent temperatures will remain
at mid summer levels. This will translate into readings in the mid
to upper 80s for the valleys and lake plains...with some 90 degree
readings possible in the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes regions.

In terms of the pcpn...the showers and thunderstorms are already in
the process of coming to an end across the far western counties. The
pcpn east of the Genesee Valley will likely end by lunchtime as the
moisture plume will outrun the forcing from the pre frontal trough.
This rainfall was supported by a plume of sub-tropical moisture that
extended from the Lower Mississippi Valley across the Ohio Valley to
Western New York...with PWAT values in the vcnty of 2 inches. This
helped to generate some downpours...which brought over a half inch
of badly needed rainfall to some areas.

As drier mid level air works across the region from west to east
during the course of the midday and afternoon...skies will at least
partially clear. Mainly sunny skies should be observed this
afternoon west of the Finger Lakes.

Tonight...the second frontal boundary will move across the region. A
somewhat moisture starved cool front will cross the region after
midnight...with legitimately cooler air slowly making its way across
the Lower Great Lakes. The more comfortable airmass will not be
fully `appreciated` until after daybreak though...as temperatures
overnight will only drop off into the low to mid 60s for most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A sharp mid level trough will move from the central Great Lakes
Tuesday into the lower Great Lakes by Tuesday night. Several
shortwaves rotating through the trough will provide a few periods of
large scale ascent, with a pair of associated subtle surface cold
fronts providing some low level convergence. The combination of
large scale ascent, modest diurnal instability, and limited moisture
will support a few scattered showers Tuesday, mainly in the
afternoon and mainly inland from the stabilizing influences of the
lakes. The limited instability and cooling temperatures aloft may
allow lapse rates to steepen sufficiently to support a few isolated
thunderstorms as well, especially across central NY where a relative
maximum in instability is expected along the leading edge of the
trough axis.

Ongoing cold advection and increased cloud cover will keep
temperatures cooler than recent days, with highs in the mid 70s in
most locations.

Tuesday night the main mid level trough will slowly cross the area
from west to east. Ongoing weak ascent and limited moisture with the
trough passage may continue to support a few widely scattered
showers overnight, with any isolated thunder ending in the evening
with weakening diurnal instability. Coverage of the showers and
isolated storms Tuesday and Tuesday night will be very spotty at
best, with little rainfall in most areas to help with dry soil
conditions.

On Wednesday the mid level trough will continue east across eastern
NY and into New England. Enough cyclonic flow, ascent, and moisture
may remain across the eastern Lake Ontario region to support a few
lingering scattered showers. Otherwise the rest of the area will see
a mix of sun and clouds as low level moisture initially forces
diurnal cumulus to develop inland from the lakes before mixing out
later in the day. Temperatures will remain just a tad below average
with highs in the mid 70s at lower elevations and around 70 across
higher terrain.

High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes
Wednesday night with clearing skies. The clearing and light winds
combined with the dry/cool airmass will allow for good radiational
cooling, with lows in the lower to mid 50s on the lake plains and
mid to upper 40s in the cooler Southern Tier valleys and Lewis
County.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes
Thursday with abundant sunshine. Highs will rebound into the lower
80s in most locations as the airmass quickly modifies.

By Friday a mid level trough will swing east through Ontario and
Quebec, with a trailing surface cold front moving east through the
Great Lakes. This front will provide the next chance of rain by
Friday afternoon and Friday night, but similar to many fronts in the
past few weeks expect coverage of any showers and thunderstorms to
remain scattered.

High pressure then returns to the Great Lakes region for next
weekend with a return to sunshine. Temperatures will be a little
cooler Saturday behind the front with highs in the 70s, then warming
back into the lower 80s by Sunday as the airmass quickly modifies.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
While the bulk of today will feature VFR conditions...low clouds and
showers ahead of a pre-frontal trough will result in MVFR to IFR
cigs for many areas through about 15z. As we work through the late
morning and afternoon...drier air moving across the region will
promote improving conditions that will persist through tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR but with a chance of showers and possibly a
thunderstorm.
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Despite the passage of a pair of frontal boundaries today and
tonight...a relatively weak sfc pressure will be in place across the
Lower Great Lakes. This will generally keep moderate southwesterlies
in place today with veering winds becoming lighter tonight.
Meanwhile waves will be well below small craft advisory levels. The
only concern today will be found over Eastern Lake Ontario where
there will be the risk for a thunderstorm or two into the midday
hours.

On Tuesday...northwest winds in the wake of a cool front will
freshen a bit during the midday and afternoon. While it will likely
become choppy for the New York nearshore waters east of Irondequoit
Bay...conditions should remain below small craft advisory criteria.

High pressure will then work across the Lower Great Lakes Wednesday
and Thursday...and this will keep sub advisory conditions in place
while promoting plenty of sunshine.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 271055
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
655 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Some very beneficial showers and embedded thunderstorms will cross
the region early today ahead of a weak cool front...then cooler air
will move in behind the front for much of the remainder of the week.
The more comfortable conditions will be accompanied by the minimal
chance for a shower Tuesday during the passage of a secondary cold
front...then mainly dry weather is anticipated until the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A robust shortwave in the vcnty of James Bay will push a pair of
frontal boundaries across our region today and tonight...with the
first feature helping to generate some badly needed rainfall.

The first front is actually more of a pre-frontal trough...as there
will essentially be no airmass change in its wake. H85 temps that
were in the upper teens C Sunday evening will be in the mid to upper
teens C for much of today...so our apparent temperatures will remain
at mid summer levels. This will translate into readings in the mid
to upper 80s for the valleys and lake plains...with some 90 degree
readings possible in the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes regions.

In terms of the pcpn...the showers and thunderstorms are already in
the process of coming to an end across the far western counties. The
pcpn east of the Genesee Valley will likely end by lunchtime as the
moisture plume will outrun the forcing from the pre frontal trough.
This rainfall was supported by a plume of sub-tropical moisture that
extended from the Lower Mississippi Valley across the Ohio Valley to
Western New York...with PWAT values in the vcnty of 2 inches. This
helped to generate some downpours...which brought over a half inch
of badly needed rainfall to some areas.

As drier mid level air works across the region from west to east
during the course of the midday and afternoon...skies will at least
partially clear. Mainly sunny skies should be observed this
afternoon west of the Finger Lakes.

Tonight...the second frontal boundary will move across the region. A
somewhat moisture starved cool front will cross the region after
midnight...with legitimately cooler air slowly making its way across
the Lower Great Lakes. The more comfortable airmass will not be
fully `appreciated` until after daybreak though...as temperatures
overnight will only drop off into the low to mid 60s for most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A sharp mid level trough will move from the central Great Lakes
Tuesday into the lower Great Lakes by Tuesday night. Several
shortwaves rotating through the trough will provide a few periods of
large scale ascent, with a pair of associated subtle surface cold
fronts providing some low level convergence. The combination of
large scale ascent, modest diurnal instability, and limited moisture
will support a few scattered showers Tuesday, mainly in the
afternoon and mainly inland from the stabilizing influences of the
lakes. The limited instability and cooling temperatures aloft may
allow lapse rates to steepen sufficiently to support a few isolated
thunderstorms as well, especially across central NY where a relative
maximum in instability is expected along the leading edge of the
trough axis.

Ongoing cold advection and increased cloud cover will keep
temperatures cooler than recent days, with highs in the mid 70s in
most locations.

Tuesday night the main mid level trough will slowly cross the area
from west to east. Ongoing weak ascent and limited moisture with the
trough passage may continue to support a few widely scattered
showers overnight, with any isolated thunder ending in the evening
with weakening diurnal instability. Coverage of the showers and
isolated storms Tuesday and Tuesday night will be very spotty at
best, with little rainfall in most areas to help with dry soil
conditions.

On Wednesday the mid level trough will continue east across eastern
NY and into New England. Enough cyclonic flow, ascent, and moisture
may remain across the eastern Lake Ontario region to support a few
lingering scattered showers. Otherwise the rest of the area will see
a mix of sun and clouds as low level moisture initially forces
diurnal cumulus to develop inland from the lakes before mixing out
later in the day. Temperatures will remain just a tad below average
with highs in the mid 70s at lower elevations and around 70 across
higher terrain.

High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes
Wednesday night with clearing skies. The clearing and light winds
combined with the dry/cool airmass will allow for good radiational
cooling, with lows in the lower to mid 50s on the lake plains and
mid to upper 40s in the cooler Southern Tier valleys and Lewis
County.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes
Thursday with abundant sunshine. Highs will rebound into the lower
80s in most locations as the airmass quickly modifies.

By Friday a mid level trough will swing east through Ontario and
Quebec, with a trailing surface cold front moving east through the
Great Lakes. This front will provide the next chance of rain by
Friday afternoon and Friday night, but similar to many fronts in the
past few weeks expect coverage of any showers and thunderstorms to
remain scattered.

High pressure then returns to the Great Lakes region for next
weekend with a return to sunshine. Temperatures will be a little
cooler Saturday behind the front with highs in the 70s, then warming
back into the lower 80s by Sunday as the airmass quickly modifies.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
While the bulk of today will feature VFR conditions...low clouds and
showers ahead of a pre-frontal trough will result in MVFR to IFR
cigs for many areas through about 15z. As we work through the late
morning and afternoon...drier air moving across the region will
promote improving conditions that will persist through tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR but with a chance of showers and possibly a
thunderstorm.
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Despite the passage of a pair of frontal boundaries today and
tonight...a relatively weak sfc pressure will be in place across the
Lower Great Lakes. This will generally keep moderate southwesterlies
in place today with veering winds becoming lighter tonight.
Meanwhile waves will be well below small craft advisory levels. The
only concern today will be found over Eastern Lake Ontario where
there will be the risk for a thunderstorm or two into the midday
hours.

On Tuesday...northwest winds in the wake of a cool front will
freshen a bit during the midday and afternoon. While it will likely
become choppy for the New York nearshore waters east of Irondequoit
Bay...conditions should remain below small craft advisory criteria.

High pressure will then work across the Lower Great Lakes Wednesday
and Thursday...and this will keep sub advisory conditions in place
while promoting plenty of sunshine.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 271036
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
636 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal system will spread clouds, showers and scattered
thunderstorms across the area today. Some clearing can be expected
later today and tonight then another frontal system will bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms again on Tuesday. Mainly dry
weather will return Wednesday as high pressure builds across the
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.Updated at 615 am... Current forecast is in good shape. Band of
showers over western NY is making slow progress east with the
leading edge now from near Syracuse through the Finger Lakes. Have
adjusted pops slightly to lower pops for the next few hours from
Binghamton down through northeast Pa as any rain looks to hold off
in that area until after 10 am. Otherwise still expecting a band
of showers with some isolated thunder to move across the area
through early afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms could
still develop later this afternoon but coverage will be less than
late this morning. Previous discussion is below.

Band of showers is moving slowly east early this morning across
western NY and northwest Pa in association with a weak surface
trough advancing east from the eastern Great Lakes. Models are in
good agreement that this band of showers will hold together and
move across central New York and northeast Pa later this morning
into early afternoon. A ribbon of modest instability will develop
along the trough axis later this morning so isolated thunderstorms
will also be possible along with the showers. Once this initial
band of showers moves east of the area... some clearing will occur
later this afternoon however the weak surface troughing will
persist across the region with dew points climbing into the mid
60s. Expect isolated showers and thunderstorms near the surface
trough in central NY late this afternoon persisting into the early
evening before things dry out completely overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Expect Tuesday to start out rain-free but rather muggy with dew
points in the mid to upper 60s. A cold front will track slowly
east across the region during the day with scattered convective
showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. At this
point the models are in fairly good agreement that the location of
the frontal zone will favor the eastern half of our area for the
highest coverage of showers Tuesday afternoon... mainly from the
I-81 corridor east. The NAM is forecasting a ribbon of 1000-2000
J/kg MLCAPE values from the Poconos to the Catskills along or just
ahead of the front by late afternoon Tuesday. As is typical the
GFS shows much less instability with MLCAPE values in that same
area generally below 500 J/kg. A compromise of around 1000 J/kg
should support some thunderstorms. Meanwhile deep-layer shear
values will be averaging 30-40 kts across the area... so if
moderate instability would develop we would have to watch for the
possibility of strong to marginally severe storms. The key will be
how quickly east the front moves and this will have to monitored
and the forecast refined over the next 36 hours. Meanwhile the
Finger Lakes area should be west of the front by late Tuesday with
most if not all convective showers east of that area.

Quiet weather will return to the area Tuesday night and Wednesday
as high pressure builds east from the Great Lakes. Dew points on
Wednesday will fall back into the 50s with near seasonal high
temperatures in the mid 70s to near 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
415 AM Update...Medium range models continue to show that an
upper level trof will remain over the northeast through the
extended forecast. Maximum temperatures through the period will
be close to normal but overnight minimums will run a little cool.
The only surface feature during the period will be a cold frontal
passage Friday into Friday night, will continue with chance pops
here. The rest of the extended will be dry as surface high
pressure will be in the vicinity Thursday and Saturday through
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weakening mid level short wave and pre-frontal trof will cross
the region this morning through early afternoon. A 4-5 hour period
of primarily VFR showers are expected with this feature. There
could be brief restrictions or a rumble of thunder but not
included due to low probability. In general the showers will occur
between 13Z-18Z at KAVP between 18Z-22Z. Conditions will remain
VFR behind the showers although restrictions are expected late
tonight due to mist and MVFR cigs.

South to southwest winds at 8-12 knots today then southerly
tonight around 5 knots.

OUTLOOK...

Tuesday...Chance of showers-thunder and associated brief
restrictions as a slow moving cold front moves through.

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.

Friday...Restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MSE
NEAR TERM...DGM/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KALY 271030
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
630 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 630 AM EDT...Most of the area remains mostly sunny at this
time, although clouds are thickening across areas north and west
of the Capital District as a pre-frontal trough approaches from
the eastern Great Lakes. Temps are very warm for early morning,
mainly in the 60s.

A solid band of showers with embedded isolated thunder extends
from near the St. Lawrence valley south and west across
central/western New York. These showers will gradually shift
eastward into mainly the NW half of the area through the morning
hours. Not much surface based instability will develop due to
extensive cloud cover moving in, but some elevated instability
will lead to some embedded thunder. The showers and storms will
tend to decrease in coverage by later in the afternoon and
especially the evening, due to weakening of the trough as it moves
eastward across the area.

Some breaks of sunshine are expected late in the day, which
should help boost max temps into the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The aforementioned pre-frontal trough will stall and become
diffuse near western New England tonight. So will only mention
isolated to widely scattered showers. It will be another mild
night with a southerly breezy persisting, with low temps in the
60s.

Tuesday is expected to be the most active day of the week in
terms of convective potential. At the surface, a cold front will
gradually push eastward across the region during the afternoon and
evening. Aloft, a positive to neutral tilt upper level trough is
forecast to deepen just to our west over the eastern Great Lakes.
Height falls and cyclonic vorticity advection aloft combined with
low level convergence along the cold front should result in fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially during
the afternoon across eastern NY spreading eastward to western New
England by evening.

There is a marginal risk for some of the thunderstorms to become
severe if sufficient instability can develop. Some breaks of
sunshine are expected ahead of the cold front, but it is unclear
how unstable it will get as model guidance differs with the GFS
indicating 500-1500 J/Kg of SBCAPE, while the NAM has more robust
values of around 1500-3000 J/Kg. Should more sunshine materialize,
the NAM values would be reasonable, but this is uncertain at this
time. Deep layer shear will be increasing to around 25-40 kt, so
organized severe storms will be possible given ample buoyancy.
Will mention the marginal risk in HWO.

Showers will continue Tuesday night, as the cold front only
gradually makes eastward progress, while the upper level trough
axis remains to our west with a continued cyclonic flow.
Coverage/intensity of thunder should decrease by late evening
though as instability is forecast to wane.

Will continue to mention chance pops for scattered showers with
isolated thunder for Wednesday, siding with the slower ECMWF/NAM
guidance compared to faster GFS. The upper level trough may become
a closed low, which would slow its progress. The more progressive
GFS continues to show and open wave. Max temps Wednesday should be
cooler than recent days, but close to normal for late June.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The period is expected to start out with fair weather and
seasonably warm temperatures. At the surface high pressure is
expected to be over the region. While aloft, the region is
expected to be between short wave trough.

A cold front will be on the approaches from the northwest as we
close out the work week and head into the long holiday weekend.
Convection is expected as the front approaches on Friday and
crosses the region Friday night.

Guidance indicates an upper level low should develop over the
Great Lakes region with it becoming stacked. This stacked low then
is modeled to move gradually eastward across eastern Canada over
the holiday weekend as short waves rotating about it maintaining
an upper level trough over the region. At this time, it appears
the weather across the local area should be fair for the holiday
weekend as the upper low is modeled to remain far enough to our
north while the cold front that moves through is forecast to stall
far enough to our south. A wave of low pressure is expected to
move eastward along this boundary. Subtle changes in the expected
locations of these features will result in changes to a fair
weather forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will weaken and slide
offshore today. In the meantime, a cold front will approach from
the west. Heights will fall across the region however upper level
support will remain well to the west. convection to move across
across the local area today impacting the TAF sites mainly during
the afternoon into the evening.

Expecting VFR conditions to prevail through much of the evening.
MVFR conditions are expected to develop overnight initially due
to ceilings then some fog is expected to form.

South-southwest flow will increasing to 10 to 12 knots with some
gusts into the 20s. The winds will decrease in the evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 50 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 80 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Tuesday
will be around 50 to 60 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 10 to 15 mph with gusts
around 20 mph. Southerly winds will decrease to 5 to 10 mph
tonight. Winds on Tuesday will be south-southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There is a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms today, as a
weakening frontal boundary approaches. There will be a better
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Two day rainfall totals
could reach one half to one inch, with some isolated higher
amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KBGM 271018
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
618 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal system will spread clouds, showers and scattered
thunderstorms across the area today. Some clearing can be expected
later today and tonight then another frontal system will bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms again on Tuesday. Mainly dry
weather will return Wednesday as high pressure builds across the
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.Updated at 615 am... Current forecast is in good shape. Band of
showers over western NY is making slow progress east with the
leading edge now from near Syracuse through the Finger Lakes. Have
adjusted pops slightly to lower pops for the next few hours from
Binghamton down through northeast Pa as any rain looks to hold off
in that area until after 10 am. Otherwise still expecting a band
of showers with some isolated thunder to move across the area
through early afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms could
still develop later this afternoon but coverage will be less than
late this morning. Previous discussion is below.

Band of showers is moving slowly east early this morning across
western NY and northwest Pa in association with a weak surface
trough advancing east from the eastern Great Lakes. Models are in
good agreement that this band of showers will hold together and
move across central New York and northeast Pa later this morning
into early afternoon. A ribbon of modest instability will develop
along the trough axis later this morning so isolated thunderstorms
will also be possible along with the showers. Once this initial
band of showers moves east of the area... some clearing will occur
later this afternoon however the weak surface troughing will
persist across the region with dew points climbing into the mid
60s. Expect isolated showers and thunderstorms near the surface
trough in central NY late this afternoon persisting into the early
evening before things dry out completely overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Expect Tuesday to start out rain-free but rather muggy with dew
points in the mid to upper 60s. A cold front will track slowly
east across the region during the day with scattered convective
showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. At this
point the models are in fairly good agreement that the location of
the frontal zone will favor the eastern half of our area for the
highest coverage of showers Tuesday afternoon... mainly from the
I-81 corridor east. The NAM is forecasting a ribbon of 1000-2000
J/kg MLCAPE values from the Poconos to the Catskills along or just
ahead of the front by late afternoon Tuesday. As is typical the
GFS shows much less instability with MLCAPE values in that same
area generally below 500 J/kg. A compromise of around 1000 J/kg
should support some thunderstorms. Meanwhile deep-layer shear
values will be averaging 30-40 kts across the area... so if
moderate instability would develop we would have to watch for the
possibility of strong to marginally severe storms. The key will be
how quickly east the front moves and this will have to monitored
and the forecast refined over the next 36 hours. Meanwhile the
Finger Lakes area should be west of the front by late Tuesday with
most if not all convective showers east of that area.

Quiet weather will return to the area Tuesday night and Wednesday
as high pressure builds east from the Great Lakes. Dew points on
Wednesday will fall back into the 50s with near seasonal high
temperatures in the mid 70s to near 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
415 AM Update...Medium range models continue to show that an
upper level trof will remain over the northeast through the
extended forecast. Maximum temperatures through the period will
be close to normal but overnight minimums will run a little cool.
The only surface feature during the period will be a cold frontal
passage Friday into Friday night, will continue with chance pops
here. The rest of the extended will be dry as surface high
pressure will be in the vicinity Thursday and Saturday through
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weakening mid level short wave and pre-frontal trof will cross
the region later this morning through early afternoon. Initially
mid/high level clouds will increase over the region followed by a
five hour period of primarily VFR showers. There could be brief
restrictions or a rumble of thunder but not included due to low
probability. In general the showers will occur between 12Z-18Z at
KAVP between 18Z-22Z. Conditions will remain VFR behind the
showers although restrictions may occur after 06Z due to fog/haze.

South to southwest winds at 8-12 knots today then southerly
tonight around 5 knots.

OUTLOOK...

Tuesday...Chance of showers-thunder and associated brief
restrictions as a slow moving cold front moves through.

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.

Friday...Restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MSE
NEAR TERM...DGM/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 271005
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
605 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cold front over the Lower Great Lakes this morning
dissipates to the west of the area later today. Another cold
front approaches from the west on Tuesday and moves across the
area Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The front moves farther
offshore Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns Thursday
through Friday. Another cold front approaches late Friday moving
across Saturday and moving southeast of the region by next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Minor adjustments were made to forecast based on latest conditions.

High pressure over the region this morning gives way to a
dissipating cold front approaching from the west. The later of
which may produce a few showers late this afternoon to the north
and west of NYC. Chances are low though with warm heights aloft
resulting in weak instability. For the most part, expect mostly
sunny skies into early this afternoon with increasing mid and high
level clouds to follow from upstream convection.

Highs will range from the mid 70s at coast to near 85 across the
interior. This looks to be a couple of degrees shy of normal. It
will also begin to become more humid as dew points rise through
the lower 60s this afternoon with south winds as highs as 15 to
20 mph at the coast.

There is a borderline low to moderate risk for the development of
rip currents at Atlantic ocean beaches today. If incoming swell
energy falls to around 1 ft as depicted by guidance, rip
development risk would be low, but there is some uncertainty on
how quickly that will occur. With that said, 15-20 kt afternoon
coastal jet development should have rip risk increasing to
moderate across NYC and Western LI beaches in the late
afternoon/evening with increased wind waves.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Mid level short wave trough passes through tonight with a few
showers possible. Next feature of interest will be a cold front
dropping SE across the Great Lakes tonight, approaching the NW
zones late tomorrow afternoon. Gradual height falls aloft and
increasing low-level moisture will allow for moderate instability
tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the interior. An onshore flow
near the coast will help to stabilize the airmass. The best chance
for isolated strong convection will be across the interior later
in the afternoon with CAPES over 1000 J/KG. Wind shear remains
weak, so not expecting any organization.

Conditions will be warm and muggy with dew points rising into the
upper 60s with with similar lows tonight. Highs on Tuesday may be
a degree or two cooler due to more cloud cover and continued
onshore flow. Coastal sections may have to contend with stratus
late tonight into Tuesday as the warm, moist air overruns the
cooler nearshore waters.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level trough makes slow progress east across New England
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Associated PVA noted in most model
solutions traversing across the area through early Wednesday before
moving east.

This energy departs to the northeast as closed upper low moves
across Ontario Province late in the week, with a general trough
extending across the Great Lakes region toward the east. The closed
low moves east across Quebec Province, with lowering heights and
weak PVA moving across the northeast United States next weekend.

At the surface, a slow moving cold front approaches Tuesday evening,
with a wave of low pressure along the front to the west. The front
makes slow progress across the area Tuesday night, with another
frontal boundary lagging behind Wednesday before moving through
late. High pressure builds Thursday and Friday with another cold
front moving toward or through the area Saturday. Not too confident
in how far front moves for the latter portion of the weekend.

As for sensible weather, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night due to leftover moderate
instability, convergence along the front, upper level jet and PVA
aiding development. This chance continues overnight into Wednesday
due to continuation of upper support and cold front in the vicinity.
Would expect possible shower or thunderstorm development at any time
Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly scattered in nature.

Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday with unsettled weather
returning next weekend.

Temperatures will average near normal, lower to middle 80s during
the day and 60s at night for the most part. Followed model blend.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure over the western Atlantic continues to drift into the
open Atlantic waters as a cold front approaches from the west.

VFR forecast through 06Z Tuesday. Only exception will be for some
potential fog at KGON from around 10-12Z this morning. In addition,
some stratus is possible along the coast, with FEW005-007 possible
during the early morning hours.

FEW-SCT clouds at 1500-2500 feet will spread through the terminals
ahead of that approaching cold front today, and another area of FEW-
SCT clouds at 5000 feet will develop this afternoon.

MVFR conditions will hold off until after 06Z, so the 30 hour TAFs
of KJFK/KEWR/KSWF will be impacted by precip late in the TAF period.

SW winds 5-10 KT will become S 10-15 KT later this morning. Sea
breezes will develop this afternoon, turning winds S. Coastal jet
will develop at KJFK, and winds will increase to 15-20 KT with 20-25
KT gusts there. For most other terminals, S winds will range from 10-
15 KT with gusts up to 20 KT.

S winds become SW after 00Z Tuesday, and diminish to 5-10 KT.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 15Z, and then winds
increase to 15-20 KT with gusts up to 25 KT after 18Z. Timing of
wind speed increases could be off by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

KLGA TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 19Z. Timing could be off
by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate confidence in forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: S winds increase to 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20
KT after 17Z, but timing could be off by an hour or so. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KISP TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. Sea breeze
likely after 15Z, with speeds increasing to around 15 KT with gusts
up to 20 KT after 18Z. Timing could be off by an hour or so.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.Tonight into Tuesday morning...S winds G20KT along the coast in
the early evening. MVFR or lower conditions possible, with showers
mainly from NYC metro north/west, and low clouds/patchy fog along
the coast especially KGON/KISP.

.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers and tstms. Stratus and fog possible at night, with IFR or
lower conditions likely at coastal terminals.

.Wednesday morning...IFR or lower conditions still possible via
morning fog/low clouds and any stray showers.

.Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...VFR.

.Friday...MVFR or lower conditions with showers/tstms possible in
the late afternoon from NYC metro north/west, and throughout at
night.

&&

.MARINE...
As high pressure drifts east today, southerly winds will increase
this afternoon with occasional gusts to near small craft levels,
mainly west of Fire Island Inlet to near the mouth of New York
Harbor. Similar conditions are forecast on Tuesday. Otherwise,
winds and seas will remain below small craft levels on all the
waters.

A slow moving cold front passes across the waters Tuesday
night through Wednesday as high pressure builds for the late
week period. Overall, the pressure gradient remains rather weak
during this time period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW/PW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW/PW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270902
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
502 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening mid-level trough across the eastern Great Lakes and
southeastern Ontario will bring an increase in clouds today along
with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. The best
chance for rainfall will be across northern New York this morning.
Temperatures will not be as hot as Sunday, but afternoon highs
will still reach the low to mid 80s in most sections. Moderate south
to southwest winds are expected today, and will bring a slight
increase in humidity levels to the region. A slow- moving surface
cold front and stronger mid-level trough will move into the North
Country for Tuesday, with the potential for more widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity. The strongest thunderstorm
activity is expected from the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks
eastward across Vermont, and storms could produce heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, and small hail.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 451 AM EDT Monday...Elongated NE-SW oriented 850-700mb
trough axis and associated moist axis extends from swrn Quebec
across sern Ontario and into the lower Ohio Valley region early
this morning. This trough is in advance of closed low well north
of Lake Superior (which will be responsible for Tuesday`s more
active weather), and prevailing mid-level ridge still in place
across much of New England. Consistent with previous forecasts, it
continues to appear that this mid-level trough will shift ewd
across the North Country through early afternoon, but gradually
weaken as it encounters the downstream ridge across New England.
Low- level convergence likewise appears limited, with 850mb
thermal ridge (+14 to +15C) still in place across ern NY into VT
this afternoon, and uniform S-SW gradient flow at low-levels. High
resolution models, including BTV4 and 12km WRFs and NCEP 4km- NAM
are in good agreement bringing existing showers into the St.
Lawrence Valley area 09-12Z, and then gradually becoming less
widespread through the daylight hours. Will see some light
rain/sprinkles from prevailing mid- deck move across the
Adirondacks into the Champlain valley 12-15z, and into central VT
by 18Z. Prevailing S-SW flow (10-15mph, with gusts 25 mph
especially in the Champlain Valley) does bump dewpoints into the
lower 60s by early to mid aftn across the wrn half of the forecast
area. As such, will need to watch developing axis of SBCAPE
(500-1000 J/kg) mainly across nrn NY, with potential for a few
thunderstorms developing this afternoon. Large-scale dynamics are
generally lacking given weak low-level convergence, and ewd push
of weakening trough...but orographic influences may be sufficient
to get a few showers/tstms going across especially the nrn
Adirondacks this afternoon. Carried chance tstms across nrn NY and
slight chance for VT counties, though not expecting any severe
activity. QPF amts highest St. Lawrence into Franklin County
(0.10-0.20" this morning), but generally 0.10" or less further
east given anticipated downward trends. The increase in mid- level
clouds will result in high temperatures not quite as hot as
yesterday, but still expecting values mainly low-mid 80s.

Upper ridge begins to break down tonight with mid-level height
falls moving into the region as closed low digs into the nrn Great
Lakes region. Sfc cold front remains well upstream of the region,
approaching the Ottawa valley toward daybreak. Should be a warm
night with prevailing s-sw winds and mid-level clouds. Lows
generally mid-upr 60s. Can`t rule out isold rain showers in
developing cyclonic flow regime, but better forcing for ascent
holds off until the daylight hrs Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 444 AM EDT Monday...On Tuesday, conditions start out mainly
dry. Have used BTV 4 km model for timing of development of showers
and thunderstorms. This model showing showers and storms
developing over northern New York between 16z-18z on Tuesday, with
storms developing over the western slopes of the Green Mountains
around 18z Tuesday. Models showing a sharp upper trough
approaching the region from the Great lakes On Tuesday. Also, GFS
model showing 40-45 knots in the 0-6km layer of bulk shear, along
with surface based GFS model capes of 1000 to greater than 2000
j/kg by Tuesday afternoon. Have continued to use enhanced wording
from the Adirondacks eastward to Vermont for Tuesday afternoon,
with gusty winds, small hail and heavy downpours possible, mainly
from the Adirondacks eastward to Vermont. SPC has most of the
region in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Expecting most of the shower and thunderstorm activity to be over
eastern and southern Vermont by early Tuesday evening, based on
the BTV 4km model. Given rather dry antecedent conditions across
the region, am not expecting any flash flooding issues at this
time, with main threats being from gusty winds and hail. Expecting
thunderstorm activity to diminish early Tuesday evening, with the
loss of daytime surface heating.

The upper trough will move across the region on Wednesday, so have
kept in a chance of rain showers in the forecast. This upper
trough will be eats of the region by Wednesday night, so have gone
with a dry forecast for Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 444 AM EDT Monday...Drier weather will be over the region
Thursday and Thursday night, as a weak ridge of high pressure will
be over the region. Friday also starts out dry, with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms developing Friday afternoon and
continuing into Friday night as a cold front move east from the
eastern Great Lakes. An upper trough will be over the region on
Saturday, so will continue with a chance for rain showers.
expecting mainly dry conditions on Sunday, as a weak area of high
pressure slides east from the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR through the TAF period, but
weakening mid-level trough will progress ewd across nrn NY
bringing scattered showers this morning...and threat for isold
tstms early-mid afternoon. As such, will see development of mid-
level ceilings, and can`t rule out brief intervals of MVFR/IFR
conditions with any of the heavier showers/tstms. That activity
should become more isold this afternoon as trough weakens across
VT, with just a slight chance of -RW/-TSRA. Given timing/coverage
concerns, have carried VCSH for most of the TAF locations attm,
with prevailing -SHRA 08-12Z for KMSS based on radar trends early
this morning. S-SW gradient flow will continue throughout the
period...generally 10-15kts, with gusts 18-20kt and locally up to
25-26kt at BTV with peak gusts expected mid to late afternoon.

Outlook 12z Tuesday through Friday...A slow moving cold front and
associated upper level trough bring widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday...with locally strong/severe storms
possible mainly from the Champlain Valley ewd. Any heavier
showers/tstms have the potential to bring brief vsby/cig
reductions into MVFR/IFR range. Upper trough lingers across NY and
New England Tuesday night and Wednesday with -SHRA expected. May
see brief MVFR conditions, but prevailing VFR expected. Upper
system clears the area by Wednesday night. Weak high pressure
building in from the west will bring patchy dense fog/LIFR MPV/SLK
06-12Z Thursday and possibly again 06-12z Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Will maintain lake wind advisory through the day Monday with South
winds 15-25kts across much of Lake Champlain. It appears winds
will continue 15-25kts through about midnight, then gradient flow
diminishes and may be able to drop the advisory for the pre-dawn
hours on Tuesday. Boaters should also be advised that the
approaching surface cold front will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms vicinity of Lake Champlain Tuesday afternoon, with a
few strong storms possible.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Banacos
MARINE...Banacos




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270844
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
444 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening mid-level trough across the eastern Great Lakes and
southeastern Ontario will bring an increase in clouds today along
with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. The best
chance for rainfall will be across northern New York this morning.
Temperatures will not be as hot as Sunday, but afternoon highs
will still reach the low to mid 80s in most sections. Moderate south
to southwest winds are expected today, and will bring a slight
increase in humidity levels to the region. A slow- moving surface
cold front and stronger mid-level trough will move into the North
Country for Tuesday, with the potential for more widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity. The strongest thunderstorm
activity is expected from the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks
eastward across Vermont, and storms could produce heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, and small hail.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 214 AM EDT Monday...Elongated NE-SW oriented 850-700mb
trough axis and associated moist axis extends from swrn Quebec
across sern Ontario and into the lower Ohio Valley region early
this morning. This trough is in advance of closed low well north
of Lake Superior (which will be responsible for Tuesday`s more
active weather), and prevailing mid-level ridge still in place
across much of New England. Consistent with previous forecasts, it
continues to appear that this mid-level trough will shift ewd
across the North Country today, but gradually weaken as it
encounters the downstream ridge across New England. Low-level
convergence likewise appears limited, with 850mb thermal ridge
(+14 to +15C) still in place across ern NY into VT this afternoon,
and uniform S-SW gradient flow at low-levels. High resolution
models, including BTV4 and 12km WRFs and NCEP 4km- NAM are in good
agreement bringing existing showers into the St. Lawrence Valley
area 09-12Z, and then gradually becoming less widespread through
the daylight hours. Will see some light rain/sprinkles from
prevailing mid- deck move across the Adirondacks into the
Champlain valley 12-15z, and into central VT by 18Z. Prevailing
S-SW flow (10-15mph, with gusts 25 mph especially in the Champlain
Valley) does bump dewpoints into the lower 60s by early to mid
aftn across the wrn half of the forecast area. As such, will need
to watch developing axis of SBCAPE (500-1000 J/kg) mainly across
nrn NY, with potential for a few thunderstorms developing this
afternoon. Large-scale dynamics are generally lacking given weak
low-level convergence, and ewd push of weakening trough...but
orographic influences may be sufficient to get a few
showers/tstms going across especially the nrn Adirondacks this
afternoon. Carried chance tstms across nrn NY and slight chance
for VT counties, though not expecting any severe activity. QPF
amts highest St. Lawrence into Franklin County (0.10-0.20" this
morning), but generally 0.10" or less further east given
anticipated downward trends. The increase in mid- level clouds
will result in high temperatures not quite as hot as yesterday,
but still expecting values mainly low-mid 80s.

Upper ridge begins to break down tonight with mid-level height
falls moving into the region as closed low digs into the nrn Great
Lakes region. Sfc cold front remains well upstream of the region,
approaching the Ottawa valley toward daybreak. Should be a warm
night with prevailing s-sw winds and mid-level clouds. Lows
generally mid-upr 60s. Can`t rule out isold rain showers in
developing cyclonic flow regime, but better forcing for ascent
holds off until the daylight hrs Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 444 AM EDT Monday...On Tuesday, conditions start out mainly
dry. Have used BTV 4 km model for timing of development of showers
and thunderstorms. This model showing showers and storms
developing over northern New York between 16z-18z on Tuesday, with
storms developing over the western slopes of the Green Mountains
around 18z Tuesday. Models showing a sharp upper trough
approaching the region from the Great lakes On Tuesday. Also, GFS
model showing 40-45 knots in the 0-6km layer of bulk shear, along
with surface based GFS model capes of 1000 to greater than 2000
j/kg by Tuesday afternoon. Have continued to use enhanced wording
from the Adirondacks eastward to Vermont for Tuesday afternoon,
with gusty winds, small hail and heavy downpours possible, mainly
from the Adirondacks eastward to Vermont. SPC has most of the
region in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Expecting most of the shower and thunderstorm activity to be over
eastern and southern Vermont by early Tuesday evening, based on
the BTV 4km model. Given rather dry antecedent conditions across
the region, am not expecting any flash flooding issues at this
time, with main threats being from gusty winds and hail. Expecting
thunderstorm activity to diminish early Tuesday evening, with the
loss of daytime surface heating.

The upper trough will move across the region on Wednesday, so have
kept in a chance of rain showers in the forecast. This upper
trough will be eats of the region by Wednesday night, so have gone
with a dry forecast for Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 444 AM EDT Monday...Drier weather will be over the region
Thursday and Thursday night, as a weak ridge of high pressure will
be over the region. Friday also starts out dry, with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms developing Friday afternoon and
continuing into Friday night as a cold front move east from the
eastern Great Lakes. An upper trough will be over the region on
Saturday, so will continue with a chance for rain showers.
expecting mainly dry conditions on Sunday, as a weak area of high
pressure slides east from the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR through the TAF period, but
weakening mid-level trough will progress ewd across nrn NY
bringing scattered showers this morning...and threat for isold
tstms early-mid afternoon. As such, will see development of mid-
level ceilings, and can`t rule out brief intervals of MVFR/IFR
conditions with any of the heavier showers/tstms. That activity
should become more isold this afternoon as trough weakens across
VT, with just a slight chance of -RW/-TSRA. Given timing/coverage
concerns, have carried VCSH for most of the TAF locations attm,
with prevailing -SHRA 08-12Z for KMSS based on radar trends early
this morning. S-SW gradient flow will continue throughout the
period...generally 10-15kts, with gusts 18-20kt and locally up to
25-26kt at BTV with peak gusts expected mid to late afternoon.

Outlook 12z Tuesday through Friday...A slow moving cold front and
associated upper level trough bring widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday...with locally strong/severe storms
possible mainly from the Champlain Valley ewd. Any heavier
showers/tstms have the potential to bring brief vsby/cig
reductions into MVFR/IFR range. Upper trough lingers across NY and
New England Tuesday night and Wednesday with -SHRA expected. May
see brief MVFR conditions, but prevailing VFR expected. Upper
system clears the area by Wednesday night. Weak high pressure
building in from the west will bring patchy dense fog/LIFR MPV/SLK
06-12Z Thursday and possibly again 06-12z Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Will maintain lake wind advisory through the day Monday with South
winds 15-25kts across much of Lake Champlain. It appears winds
will continue 15-25kts through about midnight, then gradient flow
diminishes and may be able to drop the advisory for the pre-dawn
hours on Tuesday. Boaters should also be advised that the
approaching surface cold front will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms vicinity of Lake Champlain Tuesday afternoon, with a
few strong storms possible.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Banacos
MARINE...Banacos




000
FXUS61 KBGM 270821
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
421 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal system will spread clouds, showers and scattered
thunderstorms across the area today. Some clearing can be expected
later today and tonight then another frontal system will bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms again on Tuesday. Mainly dry
weather will return Wednesday as high pressure builds across the
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Band of showers is moving slowly east early this morning across
western NY and northwest Pa in association with a weak surface
trough advancing east from the eastern Great Lakes. Models are in
good agreement that this band of showers will hold together and
move across central New York and northeast Pa later this morning
into early afternoon. A ribbon of modest instability will develop
along the trough axis later this morning so isolated thunderstorms
will also be possible along with the showers. Once this initial
band of showers moves east of the area... some clearing will occur
later this afternoon however the weak surface troughing will
persist across the region with dew points climbing into the mid
60s. Expect isolated showers and thunderstorms near the surface
trough in central NY late this afternoon persisting into the early
evening before things dry out completely overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Expect Tuesday to start out rain-free but rather muggy with dew
points in the mid to upper 60s. A cold front will track slowly
east across the region during the day with scattered convective
showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. At this
point the models are in fairly good agreement that the location of
the frontal zone will favor the eastern half of our area for the
highest coverage of showers Tuesday afternoon... mainly from the
I-81 corridor east. The NAM is forecasting a ribbon of 1000-2000
J/kg MLCAPE values from the Poconos to the Catskills along or just
ahead of the front by late afternoon Tuesday. As is typical the
GFS shows much less instability with MLCAPE values in that same
area generally below 500 J/kg. A compromise of around 1000 J/kg
should support some thunderstorms. Meanwhile deep-layer shear
values will be averaging 30-40 kts across the area... so if
moderate instability would develop we would have to watch for the
possibility of strong to marginally severe storms. The key will be
how quickly east the front moves and this will have to monitored
and the forecast refined over the next 36 hours. Meanwhile the
Finger Lakes area should be west of the front by late Tuesday with
most if not all convective showers east of that area.

Quiet weather will return to the area Tuesday night and Wednesday
as high pressure builds east from the Great Lakes. Dew points on
Wednesday will fall back into the 50s with near seasonal high
temperatures in the mid 70s to near 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
415 AM Update...Medium range models continue to show that an
upper level trof will remain over the northeast through the
extended forecast. Maximum temperatures through the period will
be close to normal but overnight minimums will run a little cool.
The only surface feature during the period will be a cold frontal
passage Friday into Friday night, will continue with chance pops
here. The rest of the extended will be dry as surface high
pressure will be in the vicinity Thursday and Saturday through
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weakening mid level short wave and pre-frontal trof will cross
the region later this morning through early afternoon. Initially
mid/high level clouds will increase over the region followed by a
five hour period of primarily VFR showers. There could be brief
restrictions or a rumble of thunder but not included due to low
probability. In general the showers will occur between 12Z-18Z at
KAVP between 18Z-22Z. Conditions will remain VFR behind the
showers although restrictions may occur after 06Z due to fog/haze.

South to southwest winds at 8-12 knots today then southerly
tonight around 5 knots.

OUTLOOK...

Tuesday...Chance of showers-thunder and associated brief
restrictions as a slow moving cold front moves through.

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.

Friday...Restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MSE
NEAR TERM...DGM/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 270821
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
421 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal system will spread clouds, showers and scattered
thunderstorms across the area today. Some clearing can be expected
later today and tonight then another frontal system will bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms again on Tuesday. Mainly dry
weather will return Wednesday as high pressure builds across the
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Band of showers is moving slowly east early this morning across
western NY and northwest Pa in association with a weak surface
trough advancing east from the eastern Great Lakes. Models are in
good agreement that this band of showers will hold together and
move across central New York and northeast Pa later this morning
into early afternoon. A ribbon of modest instability will develop
along the trough axis later this morning so isolated thunderstorms
will also be possible along with the showers. Once this initial
band of showers moves east of the area... some clearing will occur
later this afternoon however the weak surface troughing will
persist across the region with dew points climbing into the mid
60s. Expect isolated showers and thunderstorms near the surface
trough in central NY late this afternoon persisting into the early
evening before things dry out completely overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Expect Tuesday to start out rain-free but rather muggy with dew
points in the mid to upper 60s. A cold front will track slowly
east across the region during the day with scattered convective
showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. At this
point the models are in fairly good agreement that the location of
the frontal zone will favor the eastern half of our area for the
highest coverage of showers Tuesday afternoon... mainly from the
I-81 corridor east. The NAM is forecasting a ribbon of 1000-2000
J/kg MLCAPE values from the Poconos to the Catskills along or just
ahead of the front by late afternoon Tuesday. As is typical the
GFS shows much less instability with MLCAPE values in that same
area generally below 500 J/kg. A compromise of around 1000 J/kg
should support some thunderstorms. Meanwhile deep-layer shear
values will be averaging 30-40 kts across the area... so if
moderate instability would develop we would have to watch for the
possibility of strong to marginally severe storms. The key will be
how quickly east the front moves and this will have to monitored
and the forecast refined over the next 36 hours. Meanwhile the
Finger Lakes area should be west of the front by late Tuesday with
most if not all convective showers east of that area.

Quiet weather will return to the area Tuesday night and Wednesday
as high pressure builds east from the Great Lakes. Dew points on
Wednesday will fall back into the 50s with near seasonal high
temperatures in the mid 70s to near 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
415 AM Update...Medium range models continue to show that an
upper level trof will remain over the northeast through the
extended forecast. Maximum temperatures through the period will
be close to normal but overnight minimums will run a little cool.
The only surface feature during the period will be a cold frontal
passage Friday into Friday night, will continue with chance pops
here. The rest of the extended will be dry as surface high
pressure will be in the vicinity Thursday and Saturday through
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weakening mid level short wave and pre-frontal trof will cross
the region later this morning through early afternoon. Initially
mid/high level clouds will increase over the region followed by a
five hour period of primarily VFR showers. There could be brief
restrictions or a rumble of thunder but not included due to low
probability. In general the showers will occur between 12Z-18Z at
KAVP between 18Z-22Z. Conditions will remain VFR behind the
showers although restrictions may occur after 06Z due to fog/haze.

South to southwest winds at 8-12 knots today then southerly
tonight around 5 knots.

OUTLOOK...

Tuesday...Chance of showers-thunder and associated brief
restrictions as a slow moving cold front moves through.

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.

Friday...Restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MSE
NEAR TERM...DGM/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KALY 270820
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
420 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 400 AM EDT...Most of the area remains mainly clear early
this morning, although clouds are thickening across areas north
and west of the Capital District as a pre-frontal trough
approaches from the eastern Great Lakes.

A solid band of showers with embedded isolated thunder extends
from central/eastern Lake Ontario south and west across western
New York state. These showers will gradually shift eastward into
mainly the NW half of the area through the morning hours. Not much
surface based instability will develop due to extensive cloud
cover moving in, but some elevated instability will lead to some
embedded thunder. The showers and storms will tend to decrease in
coverage by later in the afternoon and especially the evening, due
to weakening of the trough as it moves across the area.

Some breaks of sunshine are expected late in the day, which
should help boost max temps into the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The aforementioned pre-frontal trough will stall and become
diffuse near western New England tonight. So will only mention
isolated to widely scattered showers. It will be another mild
night with a southerly breezy persisting, with low temps in the
60s.

Tuesday is expected to be the most active day of the week in
terms of convective potential. At the surface, a cold front will
gradually push eastward across the region during the afternoon and
evening. Aloft, a positive to neutral tilt upper level trough is
forecast to deepen just to our west over the eastern Great Lakes.
Height falls and cyclonic vorticity advection aloft combined with
low level convergence along the cold front should result in fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially during
the afternoon across eastern NY spreading eastward to western New
England by evening.

There is a marginal risk for some of the thunderstorms to become
severe if sufficient instability can develop. Some breaks of
sunshine are expected ahead of the cold front, but it is unclear
how unstable it will get as model guidance differs with the GFS
indicating 500-1500 J/Kg of SBCAPE, while the NAM has more robust
values of around 1500-3000 J/Kg. Should more sunshine materialize,
the NAM values would be reasonable, but this is uncertain at this
time. Deep layer shear will be increasing to around 25-40 kt, so
organized severe storms will be possible given ample buoyancy.
Will mention the marginal risk in HWO.

Showers will continue Tuesday night, as the cold front only
gradually makes eastward progress, while the upper level trough
axis remains to our west with a continued cyclonic flow.
Coverage/intensity of thunder should decrease by late evening
though as instability is forecast to wane.

Will continue to mention chance pops for scattered showers with
isolated thunder for Wednesday, siding with the slower ECMWF/NAM
guidance compared to faster GFS. The upper level trough may become
a closed low, which would slow its progress. The more progressive
GFS continues to show and open wave. Max temps Wednesday should be
cooler than recent days, but close to normal for late June.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The period is expected to start out with fair weather and
seasonably warm temperatures. At the surface high pressure is
expected to be over the region. While aloft, the region is
expected to be between short wave trough.

A cold front will be on the approaches from the northwest as we
close out the work week and head into the long holiday weekend.
Convection is expected as the front approaches on Friday and
crosses the region Friday night.

Guidance indicates an upper level low should develop over the
Great Lakes region with it becoming stacked. This stacked low then
is modeled to move gradually eastward across eastern Canada over
the holiday weekend as short waves rotating about it maintaining
an upper level trough over the region. At this time, it appears
the weather across the local area should be fair for the holiday
weekend as the upper low is modeled to remain far enough to our
north while the cold front that moves through is forecast to stall
far enough to our south. A wave of low pressure is expected to
move eastward along this boundary. Subtle changes in the expected
locations of these features will result in changes to a fair
weather forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard will weaken and slide
offshore today. In the meantime, a cold front will approach from
the west. Heights will fall across the region however upper level
support will remain well to the west. Expecting some convection to
move into/develop across the local area today particularly during
the afternoon and evening.

Expecting mainly VFR conditions to prevail through much of the
evening. Exception would be the possibility of some mvfr-ifr fog
early this morning at KPSF and KGFL. MVFR conditions are expected
to develop mainly due to ceilings overnight.

Southerly wind will continue at KALB overnight increasing after
sunrise to around 12 knots. Winds will become gusty with gusts
into the 20s. At KGFL, KPOU and KPSF light and variable to calm
winds for the overnight with a south-southwest flow developing
after sunrise. Southerly winds increasing to around 10 knots with
some gusts into the teens. The winds will decrease in the evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A series of cold fronts will move eastward across the region late
today through Tuesday night, bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will then build in from the Midwest
by Wednesday night, with dry weather returning.

Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
be around 35 to 50 percent. RH values will then increase to
between 80 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values on Tuesday
will be around 50 to 60 percent.

Winds today will be southerly around 10 to 15 mph with gusts
around 20 mph. Southerly winds will decrease to 5 to 10 mph
tonight. Winds on Tuesday will be south-southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days.
There is a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms today, as a
weakening frontal boundary approaches. There will be a better
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms across the region on
Tuesday, ahead of and along a cold front. Two day rainfall totals
could reach one half to one inch, with some isolated higher
amounts. Ponding of water will occur within any persistent
thunderstorms. A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday with
light qpf amounts.

Dry weather will return by Thursday, with high pressure moving
back in across the region.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270813 CCA
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
413 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cold front over the Lower Great Lakes this morning
dissipates to the west of the area later today. Another cold
front approaches from the west on Tuesday and moves across the
area Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The front moves farther
offshore Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns Thursday
through Friday. Another cold front approaches late Friday moving
across Saturday and moving southeast of the region by next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure over the region this morning gives way to a
dissipating cold front approaching from the west. The later of
which may produce a few showers late this afternoon to the north
and west of NYC. Chances are low though with warm heights aloft
resulting in weak instability. For the most part, expect mostly
sunny skies into early this afternoon with increasing mid and
high level clouds to follow from upstream convection.

Highs will range from the mid 70s at coast to near 85 across the
interior. This looks to be a couple of degrees shy of normal. It
will also begin to become more humid as dew points rise through
the lower 60s this afternoon with south winds as highs as 15 to
20 mph at the coast.

There is a borderline low to moderate risk for the development of
rip currents at Atlantic ocean beaches today. If incoming swell
energy falls to around 1 ft as depicted by guidance, rip
development risk would be low, but there is some uncertainty on
how quickly that will occur. With that said, 15-20 kt afternoon
coastal jet development should have rip risk increasing to
moderate across NYC and Western LI beaches in the late
afternoon/evening with increased wind waves.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Mid level short wave trough passes through tonight with a few
showers possible. Next feature of interest will be a cold front
dropping SE across the Great Lakes tonight, approaching the NW
zones late tomorrow afternoon. Gradual height falls aloft and
increasing low-level moisture will allow for moderate instability
tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the interior. An onshore flow
near the coast will help to stabilize the airmass. The best chance
for isolated strong convection will be across the interior later
in the afternoon with CAPES over 1000 J/KG. Wind shear remains
weak, so not expecting any organization.

Conditions will be warm and muggy with dew points rising into the
upper 60s with with similar lows tonight. Highs on Tuesday may be
a degree or two cooler due to more cloud cover and continued
onshore flow. Coastal sections may have to contend with stratus
late tonight into Tuesday as the warm, moist air overruns the
cooler nearshore waters.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level trough makes slow progress east across New England
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Associated PVA noted in most model
solutions traversing across the area through early Wednesday before
moving east.

This energy departs to the northeast as closed upper low moves
across Ontario Province late in the week, with a general trough
extending across the Great Lakes region toward the east. The closed
low moves east across Quebec Province, with lowering heights and
weak PVA moving across the northeast United States next weekend.

At the surface, a slow moving cold front approaches Tuesday evening,
with a wave of low pressure along the front to the west. The front
makes slow progress across the area Tuesday night, with another
frontal boundary lagging behind Wednesday before moving through
late. High pressure builds Thursday and Friday with another cold
front moving toward or through the area Saturday. Not too confident
in how far front moves for the latter portion of the weekend.

As for sensible weather, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night due to leftover moderate
instability, convergence along the front, upper level jet and PVA
aiding development. This chance continues overnight into Wednesday
due to continuation of upper support and cold front in the vicinity.
Would expect possible shower or thunderstorm development at any time
Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly scattered in nature.

Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday with unsettled weather
returning next weekend.

Temperatures will average near normal, lower to middle 80s during
the day and 60s at night for the most part. Followed model blend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure over the western Atlantic continues to drift into the
open Atlantic waters as a cold front approaches from the west.

VFR forecast through 06Z Tuesday. Only exception will be for some
potential fog at KGON from around 10-12Z this morning. In addition,
some stratus is possible along the coast, with FEW005-007 possible
during the early morning hours.

FEW-SCT clouds at 1500-2500 feet will spread through the terminals
ahead of that approaching cold front today, and another area of FEW-
SCT clouds at 5000 feet will develop this afternoon.

MVFR conditions will hold off until after 06Z, so the 30 hour TAFs
of KJFK/KEWR/KSWF will be impacted by precip late in the TAF period.

SW winds 5-10 KT will become S 10-15 KT later this morning. Sea
breezes will develop this afternoon, turning winds S. Coastal jet
will develop at KJFK, and winds will increase to 15-20 KT with 20-25
KT gusts there. For most other terminals, S winds will range from 10-
15 KT with gusts up to 20 KT.

S winds become SW after 00Z Tuesday, and diminish to 5-10 KT.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 15Z, and then winds
increase to 15-20 KT with gusts up to 25 KT after 18Z. Timing of
wind speed increases could be off by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

KLGA TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 19Z. Timing could be off
by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate confidence in forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: S winds increase to 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20
KT after 17Z, but timing could be off by an hour or so. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KISP TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. Sea breeze
likely after 15Z, with speeds increasing to around 15 KT with gusts
up to 20 KT after 18Z. Timing could be off by an hour or so.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.Tonight into Tuesday morning...S winds G20KT along the coast in
the early evening. MVFR or lower conditions possible, with showers
mainly from NYC metro north/west, and low clouds/patchy fog along
the coast especially KGON/KISP.

.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers and tstms. Stratus and fog possible at night, with IFR or
lower conditions likely at coastal terminals.

.Wednesday morning...IFR or lower conditions still possible via
morning fog/low clouds and any stray showers.

.Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...VFR.

.Friday...MVFR or lower conditions with showers/tstms possible in
the late afternoon from NYC metro north/west, and throughout at
night.

&&

.MARINE...
As high pressure drifts east today, southerly winds will increase
this afternoon with occasional gusts to near small craft levels,
mainly west of Fire Island Inlet to near the mouth of New York
Harbor. Similar conditions are forecast on Tuesday. Otherwise,
winds and seas will remain below small craft levels on all the
waters.

A slow moving cold front passes across the waters Tuesday
night through Wednesday as high pressure builds for the late
week period. Overall, the pressure gradient remains rather weak
during this time period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW/PW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW/PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270813 CCA
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
413 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cold front over the Lower Great Lakes this morning
dissipates to the west of the area later today. Another cold
front approaches from the west on Tuesday and moves across the
area Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The front moves farther
offshore Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns Thursday
through Friday. Another cold front approaches late Friday moving
across Saturday and moving southeast of the region by next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure over the region this morning gives way to a
dissipating cold front approaching from the west. The later of
which may produce a few showers late this afternoon to the north
and west of NYC. Chances are low though with warm heights aloft
resulting in weak instability. For the most part, expect mostly
sunny skies into early this afternoon with increasing mid and
high level clouds to follow from upstream convection.

Highs will range from the mid 70s at coast to near 85 across the
interior. This looks to be a couple of degrees shy of normal. It
will also begin to become more humid as dew points rise through
the lower 60s this afternoon with south winds as highs as 15 to
20 mph at the coast.

There is a borderline low to moderate risk for the development of
rip currents at Atlantic ocean beaches today. If incoming swell
energy falls to around 1 ft as depicted by guidance, rip
development risk would be low, but there is some uncertainty on
how quickly that will occur. With that said, 15-20 kt afternoon
coastal jet development should have rip risk increasing to
moderate across NYC and Western LI beaches in the late
afternoon/evening with increased wind waves.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Mid level short wave trough passes through tonight with a few
showers possible. Next feature of interest will be a cold front
dropping SE across the Great Lakes tonight, approaching the NW
zones late tomorrow afternoon. Gradual height falls aloft and
increasing low-level moisture will allow for moderate instability
tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the interior. An onshore flow
near the coast will help to stabilize the airmass. The best chance
for isolated strong convection will be across the interior later
in the afternoon with CAPES over 1000 J/KG. Wind shear remains
weak, so not expecting any organization.

Conditions will be warm and muggy with dew points rising into the
upper 60s with with similar lows tonight. Highs on Tuesday may be
a degree or two cooler due to more cloud cover and continued
onshore flow. Coastal sections may have to contend with stratus
late tonight into Tuesday as the warm, moist air overruns the
cooler nearshore waters.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level trough makes slow progress east across New England
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Associated PVA noted in most model
solutions traversing across the area through early Wednesday before
moving east.

This energy departs to the northeast as closed upper low moves
across Ontario Province late in the week, with a general trough
extending across the Great Lakes region toward the east. The closed
low moves east across Quebec Province, with lowering heights and
weak PVA moving across the northeast United States next weekend.

At the surface, a slow moving cold front approaches Tuesday evening,
with a wave of low pressure along the front to the west. The front
makes slow progress across the area Tuesday night, with another
frontal boundary lagging behind Wednesday before moving through
late. High pressure builds Thursday and Friday with another cold
front moving toward or through the area Saturday. Not too confident
in how far front moves for the latter portion of the weekend.

As for sensible weather, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night due to leftover moderate
instability, convergence along the front, upper level jet and PVA
aiding development. This chance continues overnight into Wednesday
due to continuation of upper support and cold front in the vicinity.
Would expect possible shower or thunderstorm development at any time
Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly scattered in nature.

Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday with unsettled weather
returning next weekend.

Temperatures will average near normal, lower to middle 80s during
the day and 60s at night for the most part. Followed model blend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure over the western Atlantic continues to drift into the
open Atlantic waters as a cold front approaches from the west.

VFR forecast through 06Z Tuesday. Only exception will be for some
potential fog at KGON from around 10-12Z this morning. In addition,
some stratus is possible along the coast, with FEW005-007 possible
during the early morning hours.

FEW-SCT clouds at 1500-2500 feet will spread through the terminals
ahead of that approaching cold front today, and another area of FEW-
SCT clouds at 5000 feet will develop this afternoon.

MVFR conditions will hold off until after 06Z, so the 30 hour TAFs
of KJFK/KEWR/KSWF will be impacted by precip late in the TAF period.

SW winds 5-10 KT will become S 10-15 KT later this morning. Sea
breezes will develop this afternoon, turning winds S. Coastal jet
will develop at KJFK, and winds will increase to 15-20 KT with 20-25
KT gusts there. For most other terminals, S winds will range from 10-
15 KT with gusts up to 20 KT.

S winds become SW after 00Z Tuesday, and diminish to 5-10 KT.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 15Z, and then winds
increase to 15-20 KT with gusts up to 25 KT after 18Z. Timing of
wind speed increases could be off by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

KLGA TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 19Z. Timing could be off
by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate confidence in forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: S winds increase to 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20
KT after 17Z, but timing could be off by an hour or so. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KISP TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. Sea breeze
likely after 15Z, with speeds increasing to around 15 KT with gusts
up to 20 KT after 18Z. Timing could be off by an hour or so.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.Tonight into Tuesday morning...S winds G20KT along the coast in
the early evening. MVFR or lower conditions possible, with showers
mainly from NYC metro north/west, and low clouds/patchy fog along
the coast especially KGON/KISP.

.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers and tstms. Stratus and fog possible at night, with IFR or
lower conditions likely at coastal terminals.

.Wednesday morning...IFR or lower conditions still possible via
morning fog/low clouds and any stray showers.

.Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...VFR.

.Friday...MVFR or lower conditions with showers/tstms possible in
the late afternoon from NYC metro north/west, and throughout at
night.

&&

.MARINE...
As high pressure drifts east today, southerly winds will increase
this afternoon with occasional gusts to near small craft levels,
mainly west of Fire Island Inlet to near the mouth of New York
Harbor. Similar conditions are forecast on Tuesday. Otherwise,
winds and seas will remain below small craft levels on all the
waters.

A slow moving cold front passes across the waters Tuesday
night through Wednesday as high pressure builds for the late
week period. Overall, the pressure gradient remains rather weak
during this time period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW/PW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW/PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270811
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
411 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cold front over the Lower Great Lakes this morning
dissipates to the west of the area later today. Another cold
front approaches from the west on Tuesday and moves across the
area Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The front moves farther
offshore Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns Thursday
through Friday. Another cold front approaches late Friday moving
across Saturday and moving southeast of the region by next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure over the region this morning gives way to a
dissipating cold front approaching from the west. The later of
which may produce a few showers late this afternoon to the north
and west of NYC. Chances are low though with warm heights aloft
resulting in weak instability. For the most part, expect mostly
sunny skies into early this afternoon with increasing mid and
high level clouds to follow from upstream convection.

Highs will range from the mid 70s at coast to near 85 across the
interior. This looks to be a couple of degrees shy of normal. It
will also begin to become more humid as dew points rise through
the lower 60s this afternoon with south winds as highs as 15 to
20 mph at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Mid level short wave trough passes through tonight with a few
showers possible. Next feature of interest will be a cold front
dropping SE across the Great Lakes tonight, approaching the NW
zones late tomorrow afternoon. Gradual height falls aloft and
increasing low-level moisture will allow for moderate instability
tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the interior. An onshore flow
near the coast will help to stabilize the airmass. The best chance
for isolated strong convection will be across the interior later
in the afternoon with CAPES over 1000 J/KG. Wind shear remains
weak, so not expecting any organization.

Conditions will be warm and muggy with dew points rising into the
upper 60s with with similar lows tonight. Highs on Tuesday may be
a degree or two cooler due to more cloud cover and continued
onshore flow. Coastal sections may have to contend with stratus
late tonight into Tuesday as the warm, moist air overruns the
cooler nearshore waters.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level trough makes slow progress east across New England
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Associated PVA noted in most model
solutions traversing across the area through early Wednesday before
moving east.

This energy departs to the northeast as closed upper low moves
across Ontario Province late in the week, with a general trough
extending across the Great Lakes region toward the east. The closed
low moves east across Quebec Province, with lowering heights and
weak PVA moving across the northeast United States next weekend.

At the surface, a slow moving cold front approaches Tuesday evening,
with a wave of low pressure along the front to the west. The front
makes slow progress across the area Tuesday night, with another
frontal boundary lagging behind Wednesday before moving through
late. High pressure builds Thursday and Friday with another cold
front moving toward or through the area Saturday. Not too confident
in how far front moves for the latter portion of the weekend.

As for sensible weather, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night due to leftover moderate
instability, convergence along the front, upper level jet and PVA
aiding development. This chance continues overnight into Wednesday
due to continuation of upper support and cold front in the vicinity.
Would expect possible shower or thunderstorm development at any time
Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly scattered in nature.

Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday with unsettled weather
returning next weekend.

Temperatures will average near normal, lower to middle 80s during
the day and 60s at night for the most part. Followed model blend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure over the western Atlantic continues to drift into the
open Atlantic waters as a cold front approaches from the west.

VFR forecast through 06Z Tuesday. Only exception will be for some
potential fog at KGON from around 10-12Z this morning. In addition,
some stratus is possible along the coast, with FEW005-007 possible
during the early morning hours.

FEW-SCT clouds at 1500-2500 feet will spread through the terminals
ahead of that approaching cold front today, and another area of FEW-
SCT clouds at 5000 feet will develop this afternoon.

MVFR conditions will hold off until after 06Z, so the 30 hour TAFs
of KJFK/KEWR/KSWF will be impacted by precip late in the TAF period.

SW winds 5-10 KT will become S 10-15 KT later this morning. Sea
breezes will develop this afternoon, turning winds S. Coastal jet
will develop at KJFK, and winds will increase to 15-20 KT with 20-25
KT gusts there. For most other terminals, S winds will range from 10-
15 KT with gusts up to 20 KT.

S winds become SW after 00Z Tuesday, and diminish to 5-10 KT.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 15Z, and then winds
increase to 15-20 KT with gusts up to 25 KT after 18Z. Timing of
wind speed increases could be off by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

KLGA TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 19Z. Timing could be off
by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate confidence in forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: S winds increase to 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20
KT after 17Z, but timing could be off by an hour or so. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KISP TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. Sea breeze
likely after 15Z, with speeds increasing to around 15 KT with gusts
up to 20 KT after 18Z. Timing could be off by an hour or so.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.Tonight into Tuesday morning...S winds G20KT along the coast in
the early evening. MVFR or lower conditions possible, with showers
mainly from NYC metro north/west, and low clouds/patchy fog along
the coast especially KGON/KISP.

.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers and tstms. Stratus and fog possible at night, with IFR or
lower conditions likely at coastal terminals.

.Wednesday morning...IFR or lower conditions still possible via
morning fog/low clouds and any stray showers.

.Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...VFR.

.Friday...MVFR or lower conditions with showers/tstms possible in
the late afternoon from NYC metro north/west, and throughout at
night.

&&

.MARINE...
As high pressure drifts east today, southerly winds will increase
this afternoon with occasional gusts to near small craft levels,
mainly west of Fire Island Inlet to near the mouth of New York
Harbor. Similar conditions are forecast on Tuesday. Otherwise,
winds and seas will remain below small craft levels on all the
waters.

A slow moving cold front passes across the waters Tuesday
night through Wednesday as high pressure builds for the late
week period. Overall, the pressure gradient remains rather weak
during this time period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW/PW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW/PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270811
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
411 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cold front over the Lower Great Lakes this morning
dissipates to the west of the area later today. Another cold
front approaches from the west on Tuesday and moves across the
area Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The front moves farther
offshore Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns Thursday
through Friday. Another cold front approaches late Friday moving
across Saturday and moving southeast of the region by next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure over the region this morning gives way to a
dissipating cold front approaching from the west. The later of
which may produce a few showers late this afternoon to the north
and west of NYC. Chances are low though with warm heights aloft
resulting in weak instability. For the most part, expect mostly
sunny skies into early this afternoon with increasing mid and
high level clouds to follow from upstream convection.

Highs will range from the mid 70s at coast to near 85 across the
interior. This looks to be a couple of degrees shy of normal. It
will also begin to become more humid as dew points rise through
the lower 60s this afternoon with south winds as highs as 15 to
20 mph at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Mid level short wave trough passes through tonight with a few
showers possible. Next feature of interest will be a cold front
dropping SE across the Great Lakes tonight, approaching the NW
zones late tomorrow afternoon. Gradual height falls aloft and
increasing low-level moisture will allow for moderate instability
tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the interior. An onshore flow
near the coast will help to stabilize the airmass. The best chance
for isolated strong convection will be across the interior later
in the afternoon with CAPES over 1000 J/KG. Wind shear remains
weak, so not expecting any organization.

Conditions will be warm and muggy with dew points rising into the
upper 60s with with similar lows tonight. Highs on Tuesday may be
a degree or two cooler due to more cloud cover and continued
onshore flow. Coastal sections may have to contend with stratus
late tonight into Tuesday as the warm, moist air overruns the
cooler nearshore waters.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level trough makes slow progress east across New England
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Associated PVA noted in most model
solutions traversing across the area through early Wednesday before
moving east.

This energy departs to the northeast as closed upper low moves
across Ontario Province late in the week, with a general trough
extending across the Great Lakes region toward the east. The closed
low moves east across Quebec Province, with lowering heights and
weak PVA moving across the northeast United States next weekend.

At the surface, a slow moving cold front approaches Tuesday evening,
with a wave of low pressure along the front to the west. The front
makes slow progress across the area Tuesday night, with another
frontal boundary lagging behind Wednesday before moving through
late. High pressure builds Thursday and Friday with another cold
front moving toward or through the area Saturday. Not too confident
in how far front moves for the latter portion of the weekend.

As for sensible weather, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night due to leftover moderate
instability, convergence along the front, upper level jet and PVA
aiding development. This chance continues overnight into Wednesday
due to continuation of upper support and cold front in the vicinity.
Would expect possible shower or thunderstorm development at any time
Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly scattered in nature.

Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday with unsettled weather
returning next weekend.

Temperatures will average near normal, lower to middle 80s during
the day and 60s at night for the most part. Followed model blend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure over the western Atlantic continues to drift into the
open Atlantic waters as a cold front approaches from the west.

VFR forecast through 06Z Tuesday. Only exception will be for some
potential fog at KGON from around 10-12Z this morning. In addition,
some stratus is possible along the coast, with FEW005-007 possible
during the early morning hours.

FEW-SCT clouds at 1500-2500 feet will spread through the terminals
ahead of that approaching cold front today, and another area of FEW-
SCT clouds at 5000 feet will develop this afternoon.

MVFR conditions will hold off until after 06Z, so the 30 hour TAFs
of KJFK/KEWR/KSWF will be impacted by precip late in the TAF period.

SW winds 5-10 KT will become S 10-15 KT later this morning. Sea
breezes will develop this afternoon, turning winds S. Coastal jet
will develop at KJFK, and winds will increase to 15-20 KT with 20-25
KT gusts there. For most other terminals, S winds will range from 10-
15 KT with gusts up to 20 KT.

S winds become SW after 00Z Tuesday, and diminish to 5-10 KT.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 15Z, and then winds
increase to 15-20 KT with gusts up to 25 KT after 18Z. Timing of
wind speed increases could be off by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

KLGA TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 19Z. Timing could be off
by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate confidence in forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: S winds increase to 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20
KT after 17Z, but timing could be off by an hour or so. Moderate
confidence in forecast.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
AMDs expected.

KISP TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. Sea breeze
likely after 15Z, with speeds increasing to around 15 KT with gusts
up to 20 KT after 18Z. Timing could be off by an hour or so.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.Tonight into Tuesday morning...S winds G20KT along the coast in
the early evening. MVFR or lower conditions possible, with showers
mainly from NYC metro north/west, and low clouds/patchy fog along
the coast especially KGON/KISP.

.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers and tstms. Stratus and fog possible at night, with IFR or
lower conditions likely at coastal terminals.

.Wednesday morning...IFR or lower conditions still possible via
morning fog/low clouds and any stray showers.

.Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...VFR.

.Friday...MVFR or lower conditions with showers/tstms possible in
the late afternoon from NYC metro north/west, and throughout at
night.

&&

.MARINE...
As high pressure drifts east today, southerly winds will increase
this afternoon with occasional gusts to near small craft levels,
mainly west of Fire Island Inlet to near the mouth of New York
Harbor. Similar conditions are forecast on Tuesday. Otherwise,
winds and seas will remain below small craft levels on all the
waters.

A slow moving cold front passes across the waters Tuesday
night through Wednesday as high pressure builds for the late
week period. Overall, the pressure gradient remains rather weak
during this time period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW/PW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW/PW




000
FXUS61 KBGM 270755
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Servic