Home > Products > State Listing > New York Data
Latest:
 AFDBUF |  AFDBTV |  AFDALY |  AFDBGM |  AFDOKX |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBUF 250304
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1004 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL
REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS TRANSITIONED OVER TO LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEPENING MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS ALLOWED
FOR SATURATION INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THUS ENDING THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AND UPSTREAM OBS IN CANADA SUGGEST THIS DEEPER MOISTURE...AND THUS
SNOW P-TYPE...WILL PERSIST FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. HAVE DECIDED TO
DROP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE. WHILE THE
ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT...EXPECT UNTREATED ROADS TO REMAIN
VERY SLICK OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW COATING ON TOP
OF ANY ICE ON THE ROAD SURFACE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE
RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 7K FEET FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE
LAKES FROM A COMBINATION OF WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION. NOTE THAT EVEN THOUGH LAKE ERIE
NOW HAS PLENTY OF ICE COVER...THE EASTERN BASIN IS STILL THIN AND
SLUSHY...WHICH STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME TRANSFER OF SENSIBLE AND LATENT
HEAT TO THE ATMOSPHERE.

BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD PUSH A BROKEN BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH AND ONSHORE ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DUSTING TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION IN SOME
AREAS. SUNDAY MORNING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL QUICKLY
DROP AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT...FORCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE TO WEAKEN TO FLURRIES BY LATE MORNING. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH...
MAINLY FROM THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA INTO THE FINGER LAKES.

BY AFTERNOON EVEN THE FLURRIES SHOULD END AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
CRASH. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO ERODE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH NO OFF-LAKE FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID
20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL DROP SHARPLY LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND NOT BOTTOM OUT UNTIL MID TO LATE
MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAVE TEMPS IN THE TEENS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CUT SOUTH OF NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SHIELDS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM ITS IMPACTS. COLD AIR BROUGHT SOUTH BY THE ARCTIC HIGH
WILL ENSURE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND WELL BELOW ZERO EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 5 KNOTS IN THE NORTH COUNTY WILL
PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES WITH THE BITTERLY
COLD TEMPS.

ON MONDAY THE CLIPPER WILL SHIFT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND BEGIN TO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THIS COASTAL STORM ACROSS
PA/NY AND BENEATH A NEGATIVELY TILTING 500MB TROUGH. VERTICAL
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW PLENTIFUL MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW
PUSHING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER
LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
INTERSECTING THE FAVORED DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION. THESE
REGIONS COULD PICK UP 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SNOW
RATIOS.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER MOISTURE PROFILES
ARE QUITE A BIT THINNER AND DISPLACED BENEATH THE FAVORED DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH REGION. THIS SET UP MAY BRING A RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
RATHER THAN SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN -10C WITHIN THE CLOUD
LAYER MAY ONLY SUPPORT SUPER-COOLED DROPLETS. HAVE INCLUDED SNOW AS
A P-TYPE FOR NOW WITH JUST A MENTION OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HERE IN
THE DISCUSSION BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSER AS WE ROLL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL STORM WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A NORTH
WIND AND SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL LEAVE A
DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
PLUMMETING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS LOOK TO REACH BELOW ZERO
AGAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT DRIFT ACROSS NEW
YORK ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR REGION IS NOW
FORECAST TO CUT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS
MODELS SHOWING A TRACK TO OUR NORTH. THIS SOUTHERN TRACK ALONG WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE PICKED UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HAS BROUGHT AND
INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY. SNOW MAY
LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AS THE LOW CUTS ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. A TRAILING SURFACE HIGH SHOWN BY THE 12Z GFS AND
ECWMF WOULD BRING A COLD BUT DRY START TO NEXT WEEKEND.

ARRIVAL OF THE THE SHARPER ARCTIC AIRMASS WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING IN
THE LONG TERM HAS NOW BEEN PUSHED BACK TIL MONDAY. THIS WOULD BE
USHERED SOUTH BY YET ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH ON
SUNDAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A VERY COLD START TO FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CIGS ARE CURRENTLY A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR AND IFR WITHIN A LOW
STRATUS DECK...WITH IFR FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT HAS LARGELY
PASSED AT THIS POINT...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN THE MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR
VSBY BEFORE ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL RUN MVFR ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MVFR ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AND WAVES
DIMINISHING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 250304
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1004 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL
REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS TRANSITIONED OVER TO LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEPENING MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS ALLOWED
FOR SATURATION INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THUS ENDING THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AND UPSTREAM OBS IN CANADA SUGGEST THIS DEEPER MOISTURE...AND THUS
SNOW P-TYPE...WILL PERSIST FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. HAVE DECIDED TO
DROP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE. WHILE THE
ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT...EXPECT UNTREATED ROADS TO REMAIN
VERY SLICK OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW COATING ON TOP
OF ANY ICE ON THE ROAD SURFACE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE
RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 7K FEET FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE
LAKES FROM A COMBINATION OF WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION. NOTE THAT EVEN THOUGH LAKE ERIE
NOW HAS PLENTY OF ICE COVER...THE EASTERN BASIN IS STILL THIN AND
SLUSHY...WHICH STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME TRANSFER OF SENSIBLE AND LATENT
HEAT TO THE ATMOSPHERE.

BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD PUSH A BROKEN BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH AND ONSHORE ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DUSTING TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION IN SOME
AREAS. SUNDAY MORNING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL QUICKLY
DROP AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT...FORCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE TO WEAKEN TO FLURRIES BY LATE MORNING. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH...
MAINLY FROM THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA INTO THE FINGER LAKES.

BY AFTERNOON EVEN THE FLURRIES SHOULD END AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
CRASH. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO ERODE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH NO OFF-LAKE FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID
20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL DROP SHARPLY LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND NOT BOTTOM OUT UNTIL MID TO LATE
MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAVE TEMPS IN THE TEENS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CUT SOUTH OF NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SHIELDS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM ITS IMPACTS. COLD AIR BROUGHT SOUTH BY THE ARCTIC HIGH
WILL ENSURE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND WELL BELOW ZERO EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 5 KNOTS IN THE NORTH COUNTY WILL
PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES WITH THE BITTERLY
COLD TEMPS.

ON MONDAY THE CLIPPER WILL SHIFT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND BEGIN TO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THIS COASTAL STORM ACROSS
PA/NY AND BENEATH A NEGATIVELY TILTING 500MB TROUGH. VERTICAL
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW PLENTIFUL MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW
PUSHING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER
LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
INTERSECTING THE FAVORED DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION. THESE
REGIONS COULD PICK UP 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SNOW
RATIOS.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER MOISTURE PROFILES
ARE QUITE A BIT THINNER AND DISPLACED BENEATH THE FAVORED DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH REGION. THIS SET UP MAY BRING A RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
RATHER THAN SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN -10C WITHIN THE CLOUD
LAYER MAY ONLY SUPPORT SUPER-COOLED DROPLETS. HAVE INCLUDED SNOW AS
A P-TYPE FOR NOW WITH JUST A MENTION OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HERE IN
THE DISCUSSION BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSER AS WE ROLL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL STORM WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A NORTH
WIND AND SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL LEAVE A
DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
PLUMMETING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS LOOK TO REACH BELOW ZERO
AGAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT DRIFT ACROSS NEW
YORK ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR REGION IS NOW
FORECAST TO CUT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS
MODELS SHOWING A TRACK TO OUR NORTH. THIS SOUTHERN TRACK ALONG WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE PICKED UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HAS BROUGHT AND
INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY. SNOW MAY
LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AS THE LOW CUTS ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. A TRAILING SURFACE HIGH SHOWN BY THE 12Z GFS AND
ECWMF WOULD BRING A COLD BUT DRY START TO NEXT WEEKEND.

ARRIVAL OF THE THE SHARPER ARCTIC AIRMASS WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING IN
THE LONG TERM HAS NOW BEEN PUSHED BACK TIL MONDAY. THIS WOULD BE
USHERED SOUTH BY YET ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH ON
SUNDAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A VERY COLD START TO FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CIGS ARE CURRENTLY A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR AND IFR WITHIN A LOW
STRATUS DECK...WITH IFR FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT HAS LARGELY
PASSED AT THIS POINT...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN THE MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR
VSBY BEFORE ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL RUN MVFR ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MVFR ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AND WAVES
DIMINISHING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 250304
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1004 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL
REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS TRANSITIONED OVER TO LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEPENING MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS ALLOWED
FOR SATURATION INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THUS ENDING THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AND UPSTREAM OBS IN CANADA SUGGEST THIS DEEPER MOISTURE...AND THUS
SNOW P-TYPE...WILL PERSIST FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. HAVE DECIDED TO
DROP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE. WHILE THE
ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT...EXPECT UNTREATED ROADS TO REMAIN
VERY SLICK OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW COATING ON TOP
OF ANY ICE ON THE ROAD SURFACE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE
RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 7K FEET FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE
LAKES FROM A COMBINATION OF WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION. NOTE THAT EVEN THOUGH LAKE ERIE
NOW HAS PLENTY OF ICE COVER...THE EASTERN BASIN IS STILL THIN AND
SLUSHY...WHICH STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME TRANSFER OF SENSIBLE AND LATENT
HEAT TO THE ATMOSPHERE.

BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD PUSH A BROKEN BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH AND ONSHORE ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DUSTING TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION IN SOME
AREAS. SUNDAY MORNING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL QUICKLY
DROP AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT...FORCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE TO WEAKEN TO FLURRIES BY LATE MORNING. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH...
MAINLY FROM THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA INTO THE FINGER LAKES.

BY AFTERNOON EVEN THE FLURRIES SHOULD END AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
CRASH. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO ERODE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH NO OFF-LAKE FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID
20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL DROP SHARPLY LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND NOT BOTTOM OUT UNTIL MID TO LATE
MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAVE TEMPS IN THE TEENS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CUT SOUTH OF NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SHIELDS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM ITS IMPACTS. COLD AIR BROUGHT SOUTH BY THE ARCTIC HIGH
WILL ENSURE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND WELL BELOW ZERO EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 5 KNOTS IN THE NORTH COUNTY WILL
PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES WITH THE BITTERLY
COLD TEMPS.

ON MONDAY THE CLIPPER WILL SHIFT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND BEGIN TO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THIS COASTAL STORM ACROSS
PA/NY AND BENEATH A NEGATIVELY TILTING 500MB TROUGH. VERTICAL
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW PLENTIFUL MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW
PUSHING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER
LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
INTERSECTING THE FAVORED DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION. THESE
REGIONS COULD PICK UP 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SNOW
RATIOS.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER MOISTURE PROFILES
ARE QUITE A BIT THINNER AND DISPLACED BENEATH THE FAVORED DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH REGION. THIS SET UP MAY BRING A RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
RATHER THAN SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN -10C WITHIN THE CLOUD
LAYER MAY ONLY SUPPORT SUPER-COOLED DROPLETS. HAVE INCLUDED SNOW AS
A P-TYPE FOR NOW WITH JUST A MENTION OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HERE IN
THE DISCUSSION BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSER AS WE ROLL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL STORM WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A NORTH
WIND AND SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL LEAVE A
DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
PLUMMETING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS LOOK TO REACH BELOW ZERO
AGAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT DRIFT ACROSS NEW
YORK ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR REGION IS NOW
FORECAST TO CUT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS
MODELS SHOWING A TRACK TO OUR NORTH. THIS SOUTHERN TRACK ALONG WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE PICKED UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HAS BROUGHT AND
INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY. SNOW MAY
LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AS THE LOW CUTS ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. A TRAILING SURFACE HIGH SHOWN BY THE 12Z GFS AND
ECWMF WOULD BRING A COLD BUT DRY START TO NEXT WEEKEND.

ARRIVAL OF THE THE SHARPER ARCTIC AIRMASS WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING IN
THE LONG TERM HAS NOW BEEN PUSHED BACK TIL MONDAY. THIS WOULD BE
USHERED SOUTH BY YET ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH ON
SUNDAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A VERY COLD START TO FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CIGS ARE CURRENTLY A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR AND IFR WITHIN A LOW
STRATUS DECK...WITH IFR FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT HAS LARGELY
PASSED AT THIS POINT...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN THE MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR
VSBY BEFORE ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL RUN MVFR ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MVFR ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AND WAVES
DIMINISHING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 250304
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1004 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL
REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS TRANSITIONED OVER TO LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEPENING MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS ALLOWED
FOR SATURATION INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THUS ENDING THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AND UPSTREAM OBS IN CANADA SUGGEST THIS DEEPER MOISTURE...AND THUS
SNOW P-TYPE...WILL PERSIST FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. HAVE DECIDED TO
DROP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE. WHILE THE
ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT...EXPECT UNTREATED ROADS TO REMAIN
VERY SLICK OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW COATING ON TOP
OF ANY ICE ON THE ROAD SURFACE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE
RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 7K FEET FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE
LAKES FROM A COMBINATION OF WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION. NOTE THAT EVEN THOUGH LAKE ERIE
NOW HAS PLENTY OF ICE COVER...THE EASTERN BASIN IS STILL THIN AND
SLUSHY...WHICH STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME TRANSFER OF SENSIBLE AND LATENT
HEAT TO THE ATMOSPHERE.

BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD PUSH A BROKEN BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH AND ONSHORE ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DUSTING TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION IN SOME
AREAS. SUNDAY MORNING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL QUICKLY
DROP AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT...FORCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE TO WEAKEN TO FLURRIES BY LATE MORNING. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH...
MAINLY FROM THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA INTO THE FINGER LAKES.

BY AFTERNOON EVEN THE FLURRIES SHOULD END AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
CRASH. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO ERODE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH NO OFF-LAKE FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID
20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL DROP SHARPLY LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND NOT BOTTOM OUT UNTIL MID TO LATE
MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAVE TEMPS IN THE TEENS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CUT SOUTH OF NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SHIELDS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM ITS IMPACTS. COLD AIR BROUGHT SOUTH BY THE ARCTIC HIGH
WILL ENSURE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND WELL BELOW ZERO EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 5 KNOTS IN THE NORTH COUNTY WILL
PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES WITH THE BITTERLY
COLD TEMPS.

ON MONDAY THE CLIPPER WILL SHIFT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND BEGIN TO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THIS COASTAL STORM ACROSS
PA/NY AND BENEATH A NEGATIVELY TILTING 500MB TROUGH. VERTICAL
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW PLENTIFUL MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW
PUSHING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER
LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
INTERSECTING THE FAVORED DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION. THESE
REGIONS COULD PICK UP 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SNOW
RATIOS.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER MOISTURE PROFILES
ARE QUITE A BIT THINNER AND DISPLACED BENEATH THE FAVORED DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH REGION. THIS SET UP MAY BRING A RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
RATHER THAN SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN -10C WITHIN THE CLOUD
LAYER MAY ONLY SUPPORT SUPER-COOLED DROPLETS. HAVE INCLUDED SNOW AS
A P-TYPE FOR NOW WITH JUST A MENTION OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HERE IN
THE DISCUSSION BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSER AS WE ROLL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL STORM WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A NORTH
WIND AND SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL LEAVE A
DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
PLUMMETING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS LOOK TO REACH BELOW ZERO
AGAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT DRIFT ACROSS NEW
YORK ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR REGION IS NOW
FORECAST TO CUT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS
MODELS SHOWING A TRACK TO OUR NORTH. THIS SOUTHERN TRACK ALONG WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE PICKED UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HAS BROUGHT AND
INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY. SNOW MAY
LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AS THE LOW CUTS ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. A TRAILING SURFACE HIGH SHOWN BY THE 12Z GFS AND
ECWMF WOULD BRING A COLD BUT DRY START TO NEXT WEEKEND.

ARRIVAL OF THE THE SHARPER ARCTIC AIRMASS WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING IN
THE LONG TERM HAS NOW BEEN PUSHED BACK TIL MONDAY. THIS WOULD BE
USHERED SOUTH BY YET ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH ON
SUNDAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A VERY COLD START TO FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CIGS ARE CURRENTLY A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR AND IFR WITHIN A LOW
STRATUS DECK...WITH IFR FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT HAS LARGELY
PASSED AT THIS POINT...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN THE MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR
VSBY BEFORE ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL RUN MVFR ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MVFR ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AND WAVES
DIMINISHING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 250302
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1002 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL TRACK UP
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE THEN
APPROACHES MONDAY AND PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE CONTINUING NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER SYSTEM THEN PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
        ** BLACK ICE ON UNTREATED SURFACES OVERNIGHT **

PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END OVER THE AREA...AND WITH NEGATIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE THAT
SUPPORTED THE LAST BURST OF SNOW...HAVING SOME CLEARING THIS
EVENING. A MID DECK WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT...THEN EXIT LATE.

MAIN STORY THOUGH IS WITH RESIDUAL WATER ON MOST AREA
ROADWAYS...AND TEMPERATURES FALLING MAINLY INTO THE 20S
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT TO AT OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN
NYC...EXPECT BLACK ICE TO FORM ON NON-TREATED SURFACES. THIS COULD
MAKE TRAVEL...INCLUDING WALKING...TREACHEROUS IN PLACES OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF BLACK ICE ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...WITH WEAKENING POLAR FRONT APPROACHING SUNDAY MORNING.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS DRY...WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATO-CU.

BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS SUNDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST SUN NIGHT WITH POLAR HIGH SLIDING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE TEENS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS AND LOWER 20S NYC METRO. COULD
GET INTO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS IF CLOUDS HOLD
OFF LONG ENOUGH.

THEREAFTER...ALL EYES ON STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUN AND INTO THE SE US SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOTE ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS FOR STORM SYSTEM MONDAY-TUESDAY. THE
18Z AND 00Z NAM HAVE MOVED TO A TRACK/IMPACT SIMILAR TO THE 12Z
GFS...WITH MOST OF THE IMPACT E OF THE CT/NY STATE LINE. THE 18Z
GFS THOUGH HAS A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE 12Z ECMWF/CMC-GLOBAL/NAM
WITH A POTENTIALLY POTENT STORM IMPACTING THE ENTIRE CWA. NO
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING...WHICH FOLLOWS BELOW...BASED ON
THESE TRENDS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER NW REGARDING A STORM THAT IS PROGGED TO
EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING MONDAY. AS THE STORM HEADS TO
THE NORTH...AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BECOMES STRONGLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED BEFORE A 500 MB LOW CLOSES SOUTH OF US AT SOME POINT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD DRAW THE STORM CLOSER TOWARDS
IT...EFFECTIVELY SLOWING DOWN ITS PROGRESS TO THE NE IN SPITE OF A
BLOCKING LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVING AWAY.

HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF
AND DEEPENING OF THE STORM...MESOSCALE BANDING BECOMES MORE LIKELY
AS WELL...BUT IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE
WHERE IT WOULD SET UP. BUT BASED THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
DEFORMATION THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING...BANDED PRECIPITATION WOULD
MOVE AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA...PERHAPS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS LIKE TO BE
ALL SNOW. RIGHT NOW ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT WARM AIR GETS
WRAPPED INTO THIS SYSTEM AND CAUSES MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES FOR
EASTERN SECTIONS. SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE THE NW TREND OF THE
STORM`S TRACK...PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES COULD BE A BIGGER
CONCERN. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT A COLD AIR MASS WILL ALREADY
BE IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING THROUGH SE CANADA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...PROMOTING PRECIPITATION TYPE OF SNOW.

DID NOT WANT TO TREND UPWARD TOO MUCH REGARDING POPS AND TOO HIGH
WITH QPF/SNOW TOTALS AT THIS POINT AS LIKELY POPS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FORECAST UNTIL THE 5TH PERIOD...BUT WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO
RFC AND WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FROM THE
HIGH QPF OUTPUT FROM ECMWF AND NAM...AND THE OTHER MODELS THAT DO
NOT SHOW AS MUCH. BUT BASED ON THE NW TREND OF THE STORM...DID
MAKE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY WEST OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT. FORECAST WINDS DURING THIS STORM COULD BE ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW...THINKING IS THAT EASTERN
AND OTHER COASTAL SECTIONS HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH. TOO EARLY FOR ANY HEADLINES REGARDING THE SNOW AND
WIND POTENTIAL...BUT WILL ADDRESS AT LEAST THE SNOW ASPECT IN THE
HWO AS WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA
IS INCREASING IN LIKELIHOOD.

BEHIND THE STORM...DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A
WEAKER LOW AFFECTS US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CAPPED POPS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW...WITH PRECIPITATION MORE LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT
MIXED PRECIPITATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
** HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SEE OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS **

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS ARE MAINLY WNW AROUND 10-15KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT
THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE W OVERNIGHT AT 5-10KT THROUGHOUT.
WNW WINDS G15-20KT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
THEN VEER TO THE NW AND THE GUSTS ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY EVENING...VFR.
.LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. MVFR POSSIBLE IN -SN. E-NE
WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN
SNOW...HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT EASTERN TERMINALS. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SNOW WITH NE-N WINDS G35-45 KT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-35KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO HAVE COME TO AN END ON ANZ-350...SO HAVE
CONVERTED THE GALE TO AN SCA THERE...WITH THE SAME END TIME AS
THE EXISTING SCA ELSEWHERE...22Z SUNDAY.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST WATERS THROUGH
SUN AFT...WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SEAS 4 TO 10 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS...HIGHEST EAST OF
MORICHES INLET OVERNIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL BELOW SCA SUN AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING...AND SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FALLING
BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR PROBABLY AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD SUN NIGHT.

WINDS INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A STRONG STORM FORECAST
TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL PROBABLY NEED A GALE WATCH...AND
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WILL ADDRESS GALE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. WINDS AND SEAS
THEN DIMINISH WEDS AND THURS AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA
AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LIGHT LIQUID EQUIVALENT FALLING AS
SNOW POSSIBLE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS ANYWHERE FROM AS LITTLE AS AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION OVER FAR W ORANGE
COUNTY...TO A LITTLE OVER AN INCH OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE
CT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STORM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE HOWEVER DOES APPEAR
TO BE MOSTLY ALL SNOW...REDUCING ADVERSE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS DURING
THE STORM. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE AMOUNTS.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A POTENTIAL INTENSE COASTAL STORM COULD BRING MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...MALOIT/JC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MALOIT/NV/JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/NV/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV





000
FXUS61 KOKX 250302
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1002 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL TRACK UP
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE THEN
APPROACHES MONDAY AND PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE CONTINUING NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER SYSTEM THEN PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
        ** BLACK ICE ON UNTREATED SURFACES OVERNIGHT **

PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END OVER THE AREA...AND WITH NEGATIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE THAT
SUPPORTED THE LAST BURST OF SNOW...HAVING SOME CLEARING THIS
EVENING. A MID DECK WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT...THEN EXIT LATE.

MAIN STORY THOUGH IS WITH RESIDUAL WATER ON MOST AREA
ROADWAYS...AND TEMPERATURES FALLING MAINLY INTO THE 20S
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT TO AT OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN
NYC...EXPECT BLACK ICE TO FORM ON NON-TREATED SURFACES. THIS COULD
MAKE TRAVEL...INCLUDING WALKING...TREACHEROUS IN PLACES OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF BLACK ICE ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...WITH WEAKENING POLAR FRONT APPROACHING SUNDAY MORNING.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS DRY...WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATO-CU.

BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS SUNDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST SUN NIGHT WITH POLAR HIGH SLIDING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE TEENS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS AND LOWER 20S NYC METRO. COULD
GET INTO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS IF CLOUDS HOLD
OFF LONG ENOUGH.

THEREAFTER...ALL EYES ON STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUN AND INTO THE SE US SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOTE ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS FOR STORM SYSTEM MONDAY-TUESDAY. THE
18Z AND 00Z NAM HAVE MOVED TO A TRACK/IMPACT SIMILAR TO THE 12Z
GFS...WITH MOST OF THE IMPACT E OF THE CT/NY STATE LINE. THE 18Z
GFS THOUGH HAS A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE 12Z ECMWF/CMC-GLOBAL/NAM
WITH A POTENTIALLY POTENT STORM IMPACTING THE ENTIRE CWA. NO
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING...WHICH FOLLOWS BELOW...BASED ON
THESE TRENDS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER NW REGARDING A STORM THAT IS PROGGED TO
EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING MONDAY. AS THE STORM HEADS TO
THE NORTH...AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BECOMES STRONGLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED BEFORE A 500 MB LOW CLOSES SOUTH OF US AT SOME POINT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD DRAW THE STORM CLOSER TOWARDS
IT...EFFECTIVELY SLOWING DOWN ITS PROGRESS TO THE NE IN SPITE OF A
BLOCKING LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVING AWAY.

HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF
AND DEEPENING OF THE STORM...MESOSCALE BANDING BECOMES MORE LIKELY
AS WELL...BUT IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE
WHERE IT WOULD SET UP. BUT BASED THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
DEFORMATION THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING...BANDED PRECIPITATION WOULD
MOVE AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA...PERHAPS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS LIKE TO BE
ALL SNOW. RIGHT NOW ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT WARM AIR GETS
WRAPPED INTO THIS SYSTEM AND CAUSES MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES FOR
EASTERN SECTIONS. SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE THE NW TREND OF THE
STORM`S TRACK...PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES COULD BE A BIGGER
CONCERN. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT A COLD AIR MASS WILL ALREADY
BE IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING THROUGH SE CANADA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...PROMOTING PRECIPITATION TYPE OF SNOW.

DID NOT WANT TO TREND UPWARD TOO MUCH REGARDING POPS AND TOO HIGH
WITH QPF/SNOW TOTALS AT THIS POINT AS LIKELY POPS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FORECAST UNTIL THE 5TH PERIOD...BUT WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO
RFC AND WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FROM THE
HIGH QPF OUTPUT FROM ECMWF AND NAM...AND THE OTHER MODELS THAT DO
NOT SHOW AS MUCH. BUT BASED ON THE NW TREND OF THE STORM...DID
MAKE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY WEST OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT. FORECAST WINDS DURING THIS STORM COULD BE ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW...THINKING IS THAT EASTERN
AND OTHER COASTAL SECTIONS HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH. TOO EARLY FOR ANY HEADLINES REGARDING THE SNOW AND
WIND POTENTIAL...BUT WILL ADDRESS AT LEAST THE SNOW ASPECT IN THE
HWO AS WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA
IS INCREASING IN LIKELIHOOD.

BEHIND THE STORM...DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A
WEAKER LOW AFFECTS US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CAPPED POPS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW...WITH PRECIPITATION MORE LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT
MIXED PRECIPITATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
** HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SEE OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS **

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS ARE MAINLY WNW AROUND 10-15KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT
THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK TO THE W OVERNIGHT AT 5-10KT THROUGHOUT.
WNW WINDS G15-20KT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
THEN VEER TO THE NW AND THE GUSTS ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY EVENING...VFR.
.LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. MVFR POSSIBLE IN -SN. E-NE
WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN
SNOW...HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT EASTERN TERMINALS. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SNOW WITH NE-N WINDS G35-45 KT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-35KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO HAVE COME TO AN END ON ANZ-350...SO HAVE
CONVERTED THE GALE TO AN SCA THERE...WITH THE SAME END TIME AS
THE EXISTING SCA ELSEWHERE...22Z SUNDAY.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST WATERS THROUGH
SUN AFT...WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SEAS 4 TO 10 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS...HIGHEST EAST OF
MORICHES INLET OVERNIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL BELOW SCA SUN AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING...AND SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FALLING
BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR PROBABLY AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD SUN NIGHT.

WINDS INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A STRONG STORM FORECAST
TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL PROBABLY NEED A GALE WATCH...AND
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WILL ADDRESS GALE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. WINDS AND SEAS
THEN DIMINISH WEDS AND THURS AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA
AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LIGHT LIQUID EQUIVALENT FALLING AS
SNOW POSSIBLE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS ANYWHERE FROM AS LITTLE AS AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION OVER FAR W ORANGE
COUNTY...TO A LITTLE OVER AN INCH OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE
CT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STORM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE HOWEVER DOES APPEAR
TO BE MOSTLY ALL SNOW...REDUCING ADVERSE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS DURING
THE STORM. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE AMOUNTS.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A POTENTIAL INTENSE COASTAL STORM COULD BRING MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...MALOIT/JC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MALOIT/NV/JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/NV/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 250222
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
922 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO
THE NORTH. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A POTENTIAL STRONG SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A POTENTIALLY
STRONG SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 922 PM EST SATURDAY...REGIONAL RADAR AS OF 9 PM REVEALS
BATCH OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS LARGELY SKIRTING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS GENERAL AREA UP UNTIL THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. I`VE HAD TO ADJUST POPS A LITTLE BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS, BUT HAVE MAINTAINED
AREAL COVERAGE WORDING FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF D-2" STILL LOOK GOOD. FRONTAL TIMING STILL
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY, TOWARD THE PRE-DAWN HOURS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND EARLY MORNING FOR THE REST OF VERMONT. EXPECT A RAPID
TEMPERATURE FALL BEHIND THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS NORTH AND THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S SOUTH
(WITH SHARPER TEMPERATURE FALLS ANTICIPATED INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT).

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SURGE OF COLD AIR
AND LEAVE THE AREA LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS ON
SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MONDAY THE BROAD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION SO MONDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER QUITE COLD DAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY MONDAY NIGHT A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A STRONG COASTAL STORM OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS VERY GOOD
CONSENSUS AMONG MEDIUM RANGED MODELS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
AND TRACK JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHICH MEANS THAT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP LOOKS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHERE SOME OF
THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW. AT THIS POINT WITH THE VARIABLE
NATURE OF THE TRACK AND THE FACT THAT AS OF YESTERDAY THE ECWMF
WAS THE ONLY LONG RANGE MODEL WITH THE SYSTEM I`VE BEEN HESITANT
TO ADD IN FINE SCALE DETAILS TO THE FORECAST CONCERNING SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EST SATURDAY...QUITE A CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...AS
ECMWF...GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE AREA BOMBING
OUT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. MODELS SPREAD SNOW FURTHER
WEST INTO VERMONT AND INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. ECMWF APPEARS
TO BE THE OUTLIER ON TUESDAY AS IT HAS THE LOW WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE BENCHMARK AT 18Z TUESDAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK BY 18Z TUESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE
LOW. HAVE OPTED TO GO HIGHER THAN THE SUPER-BLEND POPS ON TUESDAY
AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL OF VERMONT AND THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK.

MODELS SHOW SNOW WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW STARTS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. HOWEVER...HAVE STILL GONE HIGHER
THAN SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON FRIDAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM SERN ONTARIO
WILL BRING SCATTERED FLURRIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT...AND THEN PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z. ONLY
MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS ANTICIPATED...WITH
SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE TAF SITES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT W-NW...THEN INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG P-GRADIENT BEHIND THE
FRONT. SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR LATE MORNING SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...DEVELOPING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...BANACOS/WGH
EQUIPMENT...WGH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 250222
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
922 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO
THE NORTH. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A POTENTIAL STRONG SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A POTENTIALLY
STRONG SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 922 PM EST SATURDAY...REGIONAL RADAR AS OF 9 PM REVEALS
BATCH OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS LARGELY SKIRTING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS GENERAL AREA UP UNTIL THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. I`VE HAD TO ADJUST POPS A LITTLE BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS, BUT HAVE MAINTAINED
AREAL COVERAGE WORDING FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF D-2" STILL LOOK GOOD. FRONTAL TIMING STILL
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY, TOWARD THE PRE-DAWN HOURS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND EARLY MORNING FOR THE REST OF VERMONT. EXPECT A RAPID
TEMPERATURE FALL BEHIND THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS NORTH AND THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S SOUTH
(WITH SHARPER TEMPERATURE FALLS ANTICIPATED INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT).

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SURGE OF COLD AIR
AND LEAVE THE AREA LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS ON
SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MONDAY THE BROAD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION SO MONDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER QUITE COLD DAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY MONDAY NIGHT A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A STRONG COASTAL STORM OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS VERY GOOD
CONSENSUS AMONG MEDIUM RANGED MODELS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
AND TRACK JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHICH MEANS THAT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP LOOKS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHERE SOME OF
THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW. AT THIS POINT WITH THE VARIABLE
NATURE OF THE TRACK AND THE FACT THAT AS OF YESTERDAY THE ECWMF
WAS THE ONLY LONG RANGE MODEL WITH THE SYSTEM I`VE BEEN HESITANT
TO ADD IN FINE SCALE DETAILS TO THE FORECAST CONCERNING SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EST SATURDAY...QUITE A CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...AS
ECMWF...GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE AREA BOMBING
OUT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. MODELS SPREAD SNOW FURTHER
WEST INTO VERMONT AND INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. ECMWF APPEARS
TO BE THE OUTLIER ON TUESDAY AS IT HAS THE LOW WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE BENCHMARK AT 18Z TUESDAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK BY 18Z TUESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE
LOW. HAVE OPTED TO GO HIGHER THAN THE SUPER-BLEND POPS ON TUESDAY
AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL OF VERMONT AND THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK.

MODELS SHOW SNOW WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW STARTS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. HOWEVER...HAVE STILL GONE HIGHER
THAN SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON FRIDAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM SERN ONTARIO
WILL BRING SCATTERED FLURRIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT...AND THEN PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z. ONLY
MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS ANTICIPATED...WITH
SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE TAF SITES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT W-NW...THEN INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG P-GRADIENT BEHIND THE
FRONT. SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR LATE MORNING SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...DEVELOPING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...BANACOS/WGH
EQUIPMENT...WGH



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 250151
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
851 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BEHIND A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM...SOME LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS OR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. AN ARCTIC
AIR MASS MOVING IN BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COASTAL STORM WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ISSUED
FOR MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...HELDERBERGS...AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS.

AS OF 850 PM EST...IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
SPREADING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES FROM CENTRAL NY. THE LACK OF ICE
NUCLEI IN SOME AREAS IS ALLOWING FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
SPOTS UPSTREAM...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

EVEN THOUGH RADAR DOESN/T SHOW MUCH...ENOUGH REPORTS UPSTREAM...ALONG
WITH COLLABORATION WITH WFO BGM...HAS WARRANTED THE ISSUANCE OF A
SHORT FUSED WSW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND A CHANCE FOR -SHSN FOR WESTERN AREAS THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. WHILE TRACE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...IT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO MAKE SURFACES SLICK...ESP UNTREATED ONES.

THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND DRYING UP AS IT
MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD...AND 00Z KALY SOUNDING WOULD SUGGEST DRY
AIR WOULD PROBABLY WIN OUT. STILL...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS IT
PROGRESSES FURTHER EASTWARD. WITH COLDER AIR AND DEEPENING
MOISTURE ALOFT ARRIVING AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...PTYPE
SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT...SO
-FZDZ CONCERN IS REALLY ONLY FOR NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AND SHORT WAVE FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONLY GRADUALLY TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...AND MAY WIND UP HOLDING STEADY FOR MANY LOCATIONS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S. FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY FALL LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE TEENS AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED AROUND DAY BREAK ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND BEFORE MIDDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LITTLE RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION THE BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IN
FEEL EVEN COLDER.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE. THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY. HOWEVER ALOFT AN
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT/DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

IT WILL BE COLD AND FAIR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES OUR
WEATHER. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH BELOW
ZERO READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MONDAY WITH GREATER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS AND IS DRAWN UNDER THE UPPER LOW MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF ACTIVE...ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF
IMPACT IS STILL YET TO BE DETERMINED. IN ADDITION...RATHER COLD
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE COAST AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN ON TUESDAY. THIS IS SHOWN
IN THE 12Z ECMWF...GGEM...GFS...NAM AND MOST MEMBERS OF THE 12Z
GEFS.  THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BECOME CUT OFF...ALLOWING FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH
OF NEW ENGLAND.  OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TRACK IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.  WHILE
SOME SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY...AMOUNTS ARE STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
WHILE THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF BOTH HAD A LOT OF PRECIP OVER OUR AREA...THE
12Z GGEM/GFS AND 18Z NAM KEPT THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO OUR EAST. AT
THIS POINT...WILL FAVOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER FOR THE MOST
SNOWFALL AND HIGHEST POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
STILL...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS STORM TO TRACK CLOSER TO OUR
AREA AND BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE ENTIRE CWA...AND THE
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING CUTOFF...THIS MAKES THE FORECAST
RATHER DIFFICULT AND PARTICULAR UNCERTAIN. WE WILL MENTION THIS
SYSTEM IN OUR HWO. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL WITH AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND
LOWS BETWEEN -10 AND 5.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE STORM WILL BE MOVING AWAY...BUT IT REMAIN COLD
AND BLUSTERY BEHIND THE SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S FOR WED...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR WED NIGHT. NO PRECIP
IS EXPECTED...WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOK TO IMPACT THE REGION
SOMETIME BETWEEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. A ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW LOOKS TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR ALL AREAS. TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR THURS/FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
THURS NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM.
MIN ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. IT WILL BE COLD AND
BLUSTERY FOR SATURDAY WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...AND HIGHS IN THE
TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THIS EVENING...AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR MIST/LOW
STRATUS...MAINLY FOR KGFL OR KPSF. OTHERWISE...ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT
THANKS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP
THINGS MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS FROM
OCCURRING. OTHERWISE CIGS WILL BE BKN-OVC AT AROUND 5-6 KFT FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO OCCUR EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.  THE WIND SHIFT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE SUBTLE...DUE TO W-NW FLOW ALREADY IN PLACE BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COASTAL STORM. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY FOR
SUNDAY AT AROUND 10 KTS.

CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...BECOMING NEARLY CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY ABOUT MIDDAY.
LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY
FOR VALLEY SITES DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NYZ038>040-047-048-051-058-063.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 250151
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
851 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BEHIND A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM...SOME LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS OR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. AN ARCTIC
AIR MASS MOVING IN BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COASTAL STORM WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ISSUED
FOR MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...HELDERBERGS...AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS.

AS OF 850 PM EST...IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
SPREADING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES FROM CENTRAL NY. THE LACK OF ICE
NUCLEI IN SOME AREAS IS ALLOWING FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
SPOTS UPSTREAM...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

EVEN THOUGH RADAR DOESN/T SHOW MUCH...ENOUGH REPORTS UPSTREAM...ALONG
WITH COLLABORATION WITH WFO BGM...HAS WARRANTED THE ISSUANCE OF A
SHORT FUSED WSW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND A CHANCE FOR -SHSN FOR WESTERN AREAS THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. WHILE TRACE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...IT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO MAKE SURFACES SLICK...ESP UNTREATED ONES.

THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND DRYING UP AS IT
MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD...AND 00Z KALY SOUNDING WOULD SUGGEST DRY
AIR WOULD PROBABLY WIN OUT. STILL...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS IT
PROGRESSES FURTHER EASTWARD. WITH COLDER AIR AND DEEPENING
MOISTURE ALOFT ARRIVING AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...PTYPE
SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT...SO
-FZDZ CONCERN IS REALLY ONLY FOR NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AND SHORT WAVE FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONLY GRADUALLY TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...AND MAY WIND UP HOLDING STEADY FOR MANY LOCATIONS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S. FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY FALL LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE TEENS AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED AROUND DAY BREAK ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND BEFORE MIDDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LITTLE RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION THE BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IN
FEEL EVEN COLDER.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE. THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY. HOWEVER ALOFT AN
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT/DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

IT WILL BE COLD AND FAIR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES OUR
WEATHER. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH BELOW
ZERO READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MONDAY WITH GREATER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS AND IS DRAWN UNDER THE UPPER LOW MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF ACTIVE...ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF
IMPACT IS STILL YET TO BE DETERMINED. IN ADDITION...RATHER COLD
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE COAST AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN ON TUESDAY. THIS IS SHOWN
IN THE 12Z ECMWF...GGEM...GFS...NAM AND MOST MEMBERS OF THE 12Z
GEFS.  THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BECOME CUT OFF...ALLOWING FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH
OF NEW ENGLAND.  OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TRACK IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.  WHILE
SOME SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY...AMOUNTS ARE STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
WHILE THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF BOTH HAD A LOT OF PRECIP OVER OUR AREA...THE
12Z GGEM/GFS AND 18Z NAM KEPT THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO OUR EAST. AT
THIS POINT...WILL FAVOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER FOR THE MOST
SNOWFALL AND HIGHEST POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
STILL...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS STORM TO TRACK CLOSER TO OUR
AREA AND BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE ENTIRE CWA...AND THE
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING CUTOFF...THIS MAKES THE FORECAST
RATHER DIFFICULT AND PARTICULAR UNCERTAIN. WE WILL MENTION THIS
SYSTEM IN OUR HWO. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL WITH AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND
LOWS BETWEEN -10 AND 5.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE STORM WILL BE MOVING AWAY...BUT IT REMAIN COLD
AND BLUSTERY BEHIND THE SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S FOR WED...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR WED NIGHT. NO PRECIP
IS EXPECTED...WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOK TO IMPACT THE REGION
SOMETIME BETWEEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. A ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW LOOKS TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR ALL AREAS. TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR THURS/FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
THURS NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM.
MIN ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. IT WILL BE COLD AND
BLUSTERY FOR SATURDAY WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...AND HIGHS IN THE
TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THIS EVENING...AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR MIST/LOW
STRATUS...MAINLY FOR KGFL OR KPSF. OTHERWISE...ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT
THANKS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP
THINGS MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS FROM
OCCURRING. OTHERWISE CIGS WILL BE BKN-OVC AT AROUND 5-6 KFT FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO OCCUR EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.  THE WIND SHIFT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE SUBTLE...DUE TO W-NW FLOW ALREADY IN PLACE BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COASTAL STORM. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY FOR
SUNDAY AT AROUND 10 KTS.

CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...BECOMING NEARLY CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY ABOUT MIDDAY.
LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY
FOR VALLEY SITES DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NYZ038>040-047-048-051-058-063.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 250151
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
851 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BEHIND A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM...SOME LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS OR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. AN ARCTIC
AIR MASS MOVING IN BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COASTAL STORM WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ISSUED
FOR MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...HELDERBERGS...AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS.

AS OF 850 PM EST...IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
SPREADING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES FROM CENTRAL NY. THE LACK OF ICE
NUCLEI IN SOME AREAS IS ALLOWING FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
SPOTS UPSTREAM...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

EVEN THOUGH RADAR DOESN/T SHOW MUCH...ENOUGH REPORTS UPSTREAM...ALONG
WITH COLLABORATION WITH WFO BGM...HAS WARRANTED THE ISSUANCE OF A
SHORT FUSED WSW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND A CHANCE FOR -SHSN FOR WESTERN AREAS THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. WHILE TRACE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...IT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO MAKE SURFACES SLICK...ESP UNTREATED ONES.

THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND DRYING UP AS IT
MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD...AND 00Z KALY SOUNDING WOULD SUGGEST DRY
AIR WOULD PROBABLY WIN OUT. STILL...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS IT
PROGRESSES FURTHER EASTWARD. WITH COLDER AIR AND DEEPENING
MOISTURE ALOFT ARRIVING AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...PTYPE
SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT...SO
-FZDZ CONCERN IS REALLY ONLY FOR NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AND SHORT WAVE FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONLY GRADUALLY TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...AND MAY WIND UP HOLDING STEADY FOR MANY LOCATIONS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S. FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY FALL LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE TEENS AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED AROUND DAY BREAK ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND BEFORE MIDDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LITTLE RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION THE BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IN
FEEL EVEN COLDER.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE. THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY. HOWEVER ALOFT AN
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT/DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

IT WILL BE COLD AND FAIR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES OUR
WEATHER. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH BELOW
ZERO READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MONDAY WITH GREATER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS AND IS DRAWN UNDER THE UPPER LOW MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF ACTIVE...ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF
IMPACT IS STILL YET TO BE DETERMINED. IN ADDITION...RATHER COLD
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE COAST AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN ON TUESDAY. THIS IS SHOWN
IN THE 12Z ECMWF...GGEM...GFS...NAM AND MOST MEMBERS OF THE 12Z
GEFS.  THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BECOME CUT OFF...ALLOWING FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH
OF NEW ENGLAND.  OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TRACK IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.  WHILE
SOME SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY...AMOUNTS ARE STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
WHILE THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF BOTH HAD A LOT OF PRECIP OVER OUR AREA...THE
12Z GGEM/GFS AND 18Z NAM KEPT THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO OUR EAST. AT
THIS POINT...WILL FAVOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER FOR THE MOST
SNOWFALL AND HIGHEST POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
STILL...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS STORM TO TRACK CLOSER TO OUR
AREA AND BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE ENTIRE CWA...AND THE
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING CUTOFF...THIS MAKES THE FORECAST
RATHER DIFFICULT AND PARTICULAR UNCERTAIN. WE WILL MENTION THIS
SYSTEM IN OUR HWO. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL WITH AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND
LOWS BETWEEN -10 AND 5.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE STORM WILL BE MOVING AWAY...BUT IT REMAIN COLD
AND BLUSTERY BEHIND THE SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S FOR WED...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR WED NIGHT. NO PRECIP
IS EXPECTED...WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOK TO IMPACT THE REGION
SOMETIME BETWEEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. A ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW LOOKS TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR ALL AREAS. TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR THURS/FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
THURS NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM.
MIN ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. IT WILL BE COLD AND
BLUSTERY FOR SATURDAY WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...AND HIGHS IN THE
TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THIS EVENING...AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR MIST/LOW
STRATUS...MAINLY FOR KGFL OR KPSF. OTHERWISE...ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT
THANKS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP
THINGS MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS FROM
OCCURRING. OTHERWISE CIGS WILL BE BKN-OVC AT AROUND 5-6 KFT FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO OCCUR EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.  THE WIND SHIFT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE SUBTLE...DUE TO W-NW FLOW ALREADY IN PLACE BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COASTAL STORM. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY FOR
SUNDAY AT AROUND 10 KTS.

CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...BECOMING NEARLY CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY ABOUT MIDDAY.
LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY
FOR VALLEY SITES DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NYZ038>040-047-048-051-058-063.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 250151
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
851 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BEHIND A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM...SOME LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS OR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. AN ARCTIC
AIR MASS MOVING IN BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COASTAL STORM WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ISSUED
FOR MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...HELDERBERGS...AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS.

AS OF 850 PM EST...IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
SPREADING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES FROM CENTRAL NY. THE LACK OF ICE
NUCLEI IN SOME AREAS IS ALLOWING FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
SPOTS UPSTREAM...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

EVEN THOUGH RADAR DOESN/T SHOW MUCH...ENOUGH REPORTS UPSTREAM...ALONG
WITH COLLABORATION WITH WFO BGM...HAS WARRANTED THE ISSUANCE OF A
SHORT FUSED WSW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND A CHANCE FOR -SHSN FOR WESTERN AREAS THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. WHILE TRACE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...IT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO MAKE SURFACES SLICK...ESP UNTREATED ONES.

THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND DRYING UP AS IT
MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD...AND 00Z KALY SOUNDING WOULD SUGGEST DRY
AIR WOULD PROBABLY WIN OUT. STILL...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS IT
PROGRESSES FURTHER EASTWARD. WITH COLDER AIR AND DEEPENING
MOISTURE ALOFT ARRIVING AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...PTYPE
SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT...SO
-FZDZ CONCERN IS REALLY ONLY FOR NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AND SHORT WAVE FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONLY GRADUALLY TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...AND MAY WIND UP HOLDING STEADY FOR MANY LOCATIONS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S. FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY FALL LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE TEENS AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED AROUND DAY BREAK ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND BEFORE MIDDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LITTLE RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION THE BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IN
FEEL EVEN COLDER.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE. THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY. HOWEVER ALOFT AN
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT/DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

IT WILL BE COLD AND FAIR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES OUR
WEATHER. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH BELOW
ZERO READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MONDAY WITH GREATER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS AND IS DRAWN UNDER THE UPPER LOW MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF ACTIVE...ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF
IMPACT IS STILL YET TO BE DETERMINED. IN ADDITION...RATHER COLD
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE COAST AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN ON TUESDAY. THIS IS SHOWN
IN THE 12Z ECMWF...GGEM...GFS...NAM AND MOST MEMBERS OF THE 12Z
GEFS.  THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BECOME CUT OFF...ALLOWING FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH
OF NEW ENGLAND.  OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TRACK IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.  WHILE
SOME SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY...AMOUNTS ARE STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
WHILE THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF BOTH HAD A LOT OF PRECIP OVER OUR AREA...THE
12Z GGEM/GFS AND 18Z NAM KEPT THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO OUR EAST. AT
THIS POINT...WILL FAVOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER FOR THE MOST
SNOWFALL AND HIGHEST POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
STILL...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS STORM TO TRACK CLOSER TO OUR
AREA AND BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE ENTIRE CWA...AND THE
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING CUTOFF...THIS MAKES THE FORECAST
RATHER DIFFICULT AND PARTICULAR UNCERTAIN. WE WILL MENTION THIS
SYSTEM IN OUR HWO. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL WITH AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND
LOWS BETWEEN -10 AND 5.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE STORM WILL BE MOVING AWAY...BUT IT REMAIN COLD
AND BLUSTERY BEHIND THE SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S FOR WED...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR WED NIGHT. NO PRECIP
IS EXPECTED...WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOK TO IMPACT THE REGION
SOMETIME BETWEEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. A ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW LOOKS TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR ALL AREAS. TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR THURS/FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
THURS NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM.
MIN ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. IT WILL BE COLD AND
BLUSTERY FOR SATURDAY WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...AND HIGHS IN THE
TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THIS EVENING...AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR MIST/LOW
STRATUS...MAINLY FOR KGFL OR KPSF. OTHERWISE...ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT
THANKS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP
THINGS MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS FROM
OCCURRING. OTHERWISE CIGS WILL BE BKN-OVC AT AROUND 5-6 KFT FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO OCCUR EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.  THE WIND SHIFT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE SUBTLE...DUE TO W-NW FLOW ALREADY IN PLACE BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COASTAL STORM. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY FOR
SUNDAY AT AROUND 10 KTS.

CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...BECOMING NEARLY CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY ABOUT MIDDAY.
LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY
FOR VALLEY SITES DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NYZ038>040-047-048-051-058-063.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBGM 250106
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
806 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF
PENNSYLVANIA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COLDER WEATHER AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE ALONG A SOUTHWARD DROPPING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN MONDAY MORNING, SPREADING LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE SNOW WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND POINTS SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
8 PM UPDATE...ISSUED A SHORT TERM, UNTIL MIDNIGHT, WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL NY/NRN TIER OF PA FOR AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WE ANTICIPATE THE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THEN WHEN
CAA WILL COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH FOR ANY REMAINING FREEZING PRECIP
TO CHANGE TO FROZEN. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

545 PM UPDATE...A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST AS PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA. UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE A MIX OF
VERY LIGHT SNOW AND SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AS THE NEXT SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. MESOSCALE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS MIX MAY CONTINUE
UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WHEN THE COLUMN WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR JUST
SNOW. SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SHORT TERM.

1 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOW IS NOW SITTING A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF CAPE COD
BRINGING WINTRY PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW, SLEET AND RAIN TO NEW
ENGLAND. LGT SNOW HAS ALL BUT EXITED CWA RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. SNOW
REPORTS RANGE FM A DUSTING IN THE SRN TIER OF NY TO AS MUCH AS ISOLD
7-8 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-84.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BRIEFLY MAKING AN APPEARANCE AT SFC-H8 HAS ALLOWED
CLRNG TO DVLP ACRS CNTRL NY AND WL MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACRS ALL OF
CWA THIS AFTN AS IT MVS SOUTH. HWVR, SKIES WL QUICKLY CLD BACK UP
AHD OF IMPENDING CDFNT WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FM CNTRL QUEBEC
INTO THE UPR LAKES AND DROPPING SOUTH.

LGT SNOW SHOWERS WL DVLP AHD OF BNDRY LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG. NOT
EXPECTING FRONT TO GET INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THUS THINK
THAT CHC POPS LOOK BEST THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS BNDRY SLIDES
SOUTH AWAY FM LAKE EXPECTING FLURRIES AND/OR ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WL
DROP DOWN INTO SRN TIER BY DAYBREAK. JUST A DUSTING AT BEST EXPECTED
RIGHT NOW.

H8 TEMPS WL NOT DROP ENUF TO PRODUCE ANY ORGANIZED LK EFFECT SNOWS
TONIGHT WITH DELTA T`S EXPECTED TO BE 10C THRU MRNG HRS. THUS THINK
SCTD SNOW SHOWERS HANDLE IT BEST AT THIS POINT IN TIME. AFT FROPA
BTWN 06Z AND 09Z FLOW WL ALIGN ITSELF ARND 300 DEGREES WITH AN INCH
OR TWO EXPECTED BY MRNG ACRS FAVORED LK ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE HIPRES BUILDING IN FM THE NORTH BRINGING PSUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA BY AFTN. NRLY FLOW STRAIGHT FM CANADA WL ALSO BE
BROUGHT IN WITH TEMPS RMNG STEADY OR GRADUALLY FALLING THRU THE DAY
ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN ZONES. WHERE TEMPS ARE, ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY AT 12Z, WL BE THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY THEN FALLING FURTHER
SOUTH AS THE DAY CONTS. DRY AIR WL BE MVG IN FM ALOFT QUICKLY
DIMINISHING PCPN BY LATE MRNG WITH NO -SHSN EXPECTED AFT 18Z.

SYSTEM NOW UP OVR THE NRN ROCKIES WL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST DRG THE DAY
SUNDAY. ALL MED RANGE MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK
DRG THE DAY AS 12Z GFS, EC, NAM AND CMC HV IT LOCATED ALONG THE
IL/IA/MO LINE BY 12Z SUNDAY. DRY 1024MB SFC HIGH WL HELP SHUNT
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH ACRS THE OH VLY ON SUNDAY WITH NO SNOW EXPECTED.
SFC LOW SCOOTS EAST DRG THE OVRNGT BUT SFC HIGH WL ALSO HOLD TIGHT
THUS EXPECT LGT SNOW TO BEGIN DOWN ACRS POCONOS ARND 06Z. AS HIGH
RELAXES ITS GRIP AND BUILDS INTO ERN CANADA BY DAYBREAK EXPECT THAT
PCPN WL SLIDE NORTH TWD THE STATE LINE BY 12Z MONDAY.

INVERTED TROF EXPECTED TO BRING LGT SNOW TO MOST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE ERN SEABOARD. EXPECTING A
GNRLY 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW, MAINLY FOR SWRN CNTYS THRU 00Z TUESDAY.
INTENSE NOREASTER WL LKLY BRING A FOOT+ TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THRU
MID-WEEK. WITH SFC HIGH STILL HOLDING TIGHT TO EXTRM NRN PARTS OF FA
THERE WL LKLY BE A SHARP LINE BTWN SNOW-NO SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
245 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

A COUPLE OF WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE COASTAL STORM WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO IMPACT THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. WED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION BUT WILL BE QUICKLY PUSHED TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER
CLIPPER APPROACHES NY AND PA. THIS CLIPPER WILL IMPACT THE CWA
CREATING SNOW SHOWERS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO START LATE THURS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR SAT.

TEMPS WED WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM WITH MINIMUM TEMPS
FALLING TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON THURS
AND FRI REACHING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS... THEN FALL BACK BELOW ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM SLIDING EAST WILL CAUSE A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND LIGHT SNOW TO FORM OVER THE NY TERMINALS THIS EVENING. MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST, WITH VERY BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

CEILINGS WILL LIFT AROUND NOON TOMORROW INTO VFR TERRITORY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-MON...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE -SN AT KAVP AS CLIPPER PASSES.

MON NGT-TUE...MINOR RESTRICTIONS FROM LAKE CLOUDS AND/OR -SN...MAINLY
NY TERMINALS.

TUE NGT-WED...MAINLY VFR.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     PAZ038>040.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF/RRM
NEAR TERM...PVF/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 250106
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
806 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF
PENNSYLVANIA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COLDER WEATHER AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE ALONG A SOUTHWARD DROPPING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN MONDAY MORNING, SPREADING LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE SNOW WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND POINTS SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
8 PM UPDATE...ISSUED A SHORT TERM, UNTIL MIDNIGHT, WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL NY/NRN TIER OF PA FOR AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WE ANTICIPATE THE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THEN WHEN
CAA WILL COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH FOR ANY REMAINING FREEZING PRECIP
TO CHANGE TO FROZEN. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

545 PM UPDATE...A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST AS PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA. UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE A MIX OF
VERY LIGHT SNOW AND SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AS THE NEXT SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. MESOSCALE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS MIX MAY CONTINUE
UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WHEN THE COLUMN WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR JUST
SNOW. SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SHORT TERM.

1 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOW IS NOW SITTING A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF CAPE COD
BRINGING WINTRY PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW, SLEET AND RAIN TO NEW
ENGLAND. LGT SNOW HAS ALL BUT EXITED CWA RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. SNOW
REPORTS RANGE FM A DUSTING IN THE SRN TIER OF NY TO AS MUCH AS ISOLD
7-8 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-84.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BRIEFLY MAKING AN APPEARANCE AT SFC-H8 HAS ALLOWED
CLRNG TO DVLP ACRS CNTRL NY AND WL MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACRS ALL OF
CWA THIS AFTN AS IT MVS SOUTH. HWVR, SKIES WL QUICKLY CLD BACK UP
AHD OF IMPENDING CDFNT WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FM CNTRL QUEBEC
INTO THE UPR LAKES AND DROPPING SOUTH.

LGT SNOW SHOWERS WL DVLP AHD OF BNDRY LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG. NOT
EXPECTING FRONT TO GET INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THUS THINK
THAT CHC POPS LOOK BEST THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS BNDRY SLIDES
SOUTH AWAY FM LAKE EXPECTING FLURRIES AND/OR ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WL
DROP DOWN INTO SRN TIER BY DAYBREAK. JUST A DUSTING AT BEST EXPECTED
RIGHT NOW.

H8 TEMPS WL NOT DROP ENUF TO PRODUCE ANY ORGANIZED LK EFFECT SNOWS
TONIGHT WITH DELTA T`S EXPECTED TO BE 10C THRU MRNG HRS. THUS THINK
SCTD SNOW SHOWERS HANDLE IT BEST AT THIS POINT IN TIME. AFT FROPA
BTWN 06Z AND 09Z FLOW WL ALIGN ITSELF ARND 300 DEGREES WITH AN INCH
OR TWO EXPECTED BY MRNG ACRS FAVORED LK ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE HIPRES BUILDING IN FM THE NORTH BRINGING PSUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA BY AFTN. NRLY FLOW STRAIGHT FM CANADA WL ALSO BE
BROUGHT IN WITH TEMPS RMNG STEADY OR GRADUALLY FALLING THRU THE DAY
ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN ZONES. WHERE TEMPS ARE, ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY AT 12Z, WL BE THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY THEN FALLING FURTHER
SOUTH AS THE DAY CONTS. DRY AIR WL BE MVG IN FM ALOFT QUICKLY
DIMINISHING PCPN BY LATE MRNG WITH NO -SHSN EXPECTED AFT 18Z.

SYSTEM NOW UP OVR THE NRN ROCKIES WL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST DRG THE DAY
SUNDAY. ALL MED RANGE MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK
DRG THE DAY AS 12Z GFS, EC, NAM AND CMC HV IT LOCATED ALONG THE
IL/IA/MO LINE BY 12Z SUNDAY. DRY 1024MB SFC HIGH WL HELP SHUNT
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH ACRS THE OH VLY ON SUNDAY WITH NO SNOW EXPECTED.
SFC LOW SCOOTS EAST DRG THE OVRNGT BUT SFC HIGH WL ALSO HOLD TIGHT
THUS EXPECT LGT SNOW TO BEGIN DOWN ACRS POCONOS ARND 06Z. AS HIGH
RELAXES ITS GRIP AND BUILDS INTO ERN CANADA BY DAYBREAK EXPECT THAT
PCPN WL SLIDE NORTH TWD THE STATE LINE BY 12Z MONDAY.

INVERTED TROF EXPECTED TO BRING LGT SNOW TO MOST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE ERN SEABOARD. EXPECTING A
GNRLY 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW, MAINLY FOR SWRN CNTYS THRU 00Z TUESDAY.
INTENSE NOREASTER WL LKLY BRING A FOOT+ TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THRU
MID-WEEK. WITH SFC HIGH STILL HOLDING TIGHT TO EXTRM NRN PARTS OF FA
THERE WL LKLY BE A SHARP LINE BTWN SNOW-NO SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
245 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

A COUPLE OF WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE COASTAL STORM WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO IMPACT THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. WED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION BUT WILL BE QUICKLY PUSHED TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER
CLIPPER APPROACHES NY AND PA. THIS CLIPPER WILL IMPACT THE CWA
CREATING SNOW SHOWERS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO START LATE THURS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR SAT.

TEMPS WED WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM WITH MINIMUM TEMPS
FALLING TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON THURS
AND FRI REACHING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS... THEN FALL BACK BELOW ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM SLIDING EAST WILL CAUSE A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND LIGHT SNOW TO FORM OVER THE NY TERMINALS THIS EVENING. MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST, WITH VERY BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

CEILINGS WILL LIFT AROUND NOON TOMORROW INTO VFR TERRITORY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-MON...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE -SN AT KAVP AS CLIPPER PASSES.

MON NGT-TUE...MINOR RESTRICTIONS FROM LAKE CLOUDS AND/OR -SN...MAINLY
NY TERMINALS.

TUE NGT-WED...MAINLY VFR.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     PAZ038>040.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF/RRM
NEAR TERM...PVF/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DJP






000
FXUS61 KBTV 250031
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
731 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO
THE NORTH. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A POTENTIAL STRONG SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A POTENTIALLY
STRONG SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 624 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST GENERALLY HOLDING UP WELL,
BUT I DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN TERMS OF
SKY COVER, POPS AND WEATHER ELEMENTS. I`VE TRIED TO BETTER SHOW
SKY TRENDS EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY WHICH DEPICT AN AREA OF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SANDWICHED BETWEEN LAYERS OF STRATUS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AND AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THAT WILL CONTINE TO FILL IN FROM W
TO E THIS EVENING.

FRANKTOWN ONTARIO RADAR DEPICTS AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN ONTARIO AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT, WHICH PER RAP ANALYSES
IS STILL NORTHWEST OF OTTAWA. THESE WILL SPREAD INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY SHORTLY. FOR THAT REASON, I`VE OPTED TO GO WITH
AREAL COVERAGE WORDING. SOME LOWERED VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THESE SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH I`M NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SNOW
SQUALLS AS CONVECTIVE DEPTH IS VERY SHALLOW (GENERALLY UNDER 1 KM
AGL AS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS). I`VE TIMED ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM AND SWEEP FURTHER
SOUTHEAST ACROSS VERMONT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL THINK
D-2" OF SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

ASIDE FROM MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS, I`VE MADE NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SURGE OF COLD AIR
AND LEAVE THE AREA LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS ON
SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MONDAY THE BROAD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION SO MONDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER QUITE COLD DAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY MONDAY NIGHT A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A STRONG COASTAL STORM OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS VERY GOOD
CONSENSUS AMONG MEDIUM RANGED MODELS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
AND TRACK JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHICH MEANS THAT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP LOOKS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHERE SOME OF
THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW. AT THIS POINT WITH THE VARIABLE
NATURE OF THE TRACK AND THE FACT THAT AS OF YESTERDAY THE ECWMF
WAS THE ONLY LONG RANGE MODEL WITH THE SYSTEM I`VE BEEN HESITANT
TO ADD IN FINE SCALE DETAILS TO THE FORECAST CONCERNING SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EST SATURDAY...QUITE A CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...AS
ECMWF...GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE AREA BOMBING
OUT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. MODELS SPREAD SNOW FURTHER
WEST INTO VERMONT AND INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. ECMWF APPEARS
TO BE THE OUTLIER ON TUESDAY AS IT HAS THE LOW WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE BENCHMARK AT 18Z TUESDAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK BY 18Z TUESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE
LOW. HAVE OPTED TO GO HIGHER THAN THE SUPER-BLEND POPS ON TUESDAY
AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL OF VERMONT AND THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK.

MODELS SHOW SNOW WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW STARTS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. HOWEVER...HAVE STILL GONE HIGHER
THAN SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON FRIDAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM SERN ONTARIO
WILL BRING SCATTERED FLURRIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT...AND THEN PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z. ONLY
MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS ANTICIPATED...WITH
SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE TAF SITES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT W-NW...THEN INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG P-GRADIENT BEHIND THE
FRONT. SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR LATE MORNING SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...DEVELOPING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL/LOCONTO
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...BANACOS/WGH
EQUIPMENT...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250031
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
731 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO
THE NORTH. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A POTENTIAL STRONG SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A POTENTIALLY
STRONG SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 624 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST GENERALLY HOLDING UP WELL,
BUT I DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN TERMS OF
SKY COVER, POPS AND WEATHER ELEMENTS. I`VE TRIED TO BETTER SHOW
SKY TRENDS EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY WHICH DEPICT AN AREA OF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SANDWICHED BETWEEN LAYERS OF STRATUS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AND AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THAT WILL CONTINE TO FILL IN FROM W
TO E THIS EVENING.

FRANKTOWN ONTARIO RADAR DEPICTS AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN ONTARIO AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT, WHICH PER RAP ANALYSES
IS STILL NORTHWEST OF OTTAWA. THESE WILL SPREAD INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY SHORTLY. FOR THAT REASON, I`VE OPTED TO GO WITH
AREAL COVERAGE WORDING. SOME LOWERED VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THESE SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH I`M NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SNOW
SQUALLS AS CONVECTIVE DEPTH IS VERY SHALLOW (GENERALLY UNDER 1 KM
AGL AS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS). I`VE TIMED ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM AND SWEEP FURTHER
SOUTHEAST ACROSS VERMONT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL THINK
D-2" OF SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

ASIDE FROM MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS, I`VE MADE NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SURGE OF COLD AIR
AND LEAVE THE AREA LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS ON
SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MONDAY THE BROAD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION SO MONDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER QUITE COLD DAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY MONDAY NIGHT A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A STRONG COASTAL STORM OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS VERY GOOD
CONSENSUS AMONG MEDIUM RANGED MODELS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
AND TRACK JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHICH MEANS THAT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP LOOKS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHERE SOME OF
THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW. AT THIS POINT WITH THE VARIABLE
NATURE OF THE TRACK AND THE FACT THAT AS OF YESTERDAY THE ECWMF
WAS THE ONLY LONG RANGE MODEL WITH THE SYSTEM I`VE BEEN HESITANT
TO ADD IN FINE SCALE DETAILS TO THE FORECAST CONCERNING SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EST SATURDAY...QUITE A CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...AS
ECMWF...GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE AREA BOMBING
OUT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. MODELS SPREAD SNOW FURTHER
WEST INTO VERMONT AND INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. ECMWF APPEARS
TO BE THE OUTLIER ON TUESDAY AS IT HAS THE LOW WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE BENCHMARK AT 18Z TUESDAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK BY 18Z TUESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE
LOW. HAVE OPTED TO GO HIGHER THAN THE SUPER-BLEND POPS ON TUESDAY
AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL OF VERMONT AND THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK.

MODELS SHOW SNOW WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW STARTS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. HOWEVER...HAVE STILL GONE HIGHER
THAN SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON FRIDAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM SERN ONTARIO
WILL BRING SCATTERED FLURRIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT...AND THEN PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z. ONLY
MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS ANTICIPATED...WITH
SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE TAF SITES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT W-NW...THEN INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG P-GRADIENT BEHIND THE
FRONT. SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR LATE MORNING SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...DEVELOPING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL/LOCONTO
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...BANACOS/WGH
EQUIPMENT...WGH



000
FXUS61 KOKX 250015
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
715 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL TRACK UP
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE THEN APPROACHES MONDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
CONTINUING NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER SYSTEM
THEN PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
***BRIEF SNOW BAND LI/CT EARLY...THEN BLACK ICE DEVELOPING
 TONIGHT***

BACK EDGE OF SNOW WILL BE EXITING THE FORKS REGION AND NEW LONDON
COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION...HAVE LET ALL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EXPIRE.

BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS OF 00Z ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S AND WILL
BE FALLING THROUGH THIS EVENING. TEMPS EVENTUALLY FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 20S INLAND...AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S CITY/COAST.
AS SUCH...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BLACK ICE ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...WITH WEAKENING POLAR FRONT APPROACHING SUNDAY MORNING.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS DRY...WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATO-CU.

BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS SUNDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST SUN NIGHT WITH POLAR HIGH SLIDING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS AND LOWER 20S NYC METRO. COULD GET
INTO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF
LONG ENOUGH.

THEREAFTER...ALL EYES ON STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUN AND INTO THE SE US SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER NW REGARDING A STORM THAT IS PROGGED TO
EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING MONDAY. AS THE STORM HEADS TO
THE NORTH...AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BECOMES STRONGLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED BEFORE A 500 MB LOW CLOSES SOUTH OF US AT SOME POINT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD DRAW THE STORM CLOSER TOWARDS
IT...EFFECTIVELY SLOWING DOWN ITS PROGRESS TO THE NE IN SPITE OF A
BLOCKING LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVING AWAY.

HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF
AND DEEPENING OF THE STORM...MESOSCALE BANDING BECOMES MORE LIKELY
AS WELL...BUT IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE
WHERE IT WOULD SET UP. BUT BASED THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
DEFORMATION THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING...BANDED PCPN WOULD MOVE AT
LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA...PERHAPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. PCPN TYPE LOOKS LIKE TO BE ALL SNOW. RIGHT NOW ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT WARM AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO THIS SYSTEM AND
CAUSES MIXED PCPN TYPES FOR EASTERN SECTIONS. SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE
THE NW TREND OF THE STORM`S TRACK...PCPN TYPE ISSUES COULD BE A
BIGGER CONCERN. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT A COLD AIR MASS WILL
ALREADY BE IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING THROUGH SE CANADA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PROMOTING PCPN TYPE OF SNOW.

DID NOT WANT TO TREND UPWARD TOO MUCH REGARDING POPS AND TOO HIGH
WITH QPF/SNOW TOTALS AT THIS POINT AS LIKELY POPS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FORECAST UNTIL THE 5TH PERIOD...BUT WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO
RFC AND WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FROM THE
HIGH QPF OUTPUT FROM ECMWF AND NAM...AND THE OTHER MODELS THAT DO
NOT SHOW AS MUCH. BUT BASED ON THE NW TREND OF THE STORM...DID
MAKE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY WEST OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT. FORECAST WINDS DURING THIS STORM COULD BE ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW...THINKING IS THAT EASTERN
AND OTHER COASTAL SECTIONS HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH. TOO EARLY FOR ANY HEADLINES REGARDING THE SNOW AND
WIND POTENTIAL...BUT WILL ADDRESS AT LEAST THE SNOW ASPECT IN THE
HWO AS WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA
IS INCREASING IN LIKELIHOOD.

BEHIND THE STORM...DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A
WEAKER LOW AFFECTS US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CAPPED POPS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW...WITH PCPN MORE LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT MIXED PCPN
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
** HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SEE OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS **

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPTIONS ARE AT KGON WHERE MVFR TO
BRIEF IFR IN RASN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 2Z...AND AT KSWF
WHERE MVFR FOG SHOULD LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WINDS ARE MAINLY WNW AROUND 10-15KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT
THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW INLAND LOCATIONS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WINDS BACK TO THE W OVERNIGHT AT 5-10KT THROUGHOUT. WNW WINDS
G15-20KT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN VEER
TO THE NW AND THE GUSTS ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY EVENING...VFR.
.LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. MVFR POSSIBLE IN -SN. E-NE
WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN
SNOW...HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT EASTERN TERMINALS. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SNOW WITH NE-N WINDS G35-45 KT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-35KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST WATERS THROUGH
SUN AFT...WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MARGINAL GALE GUSTS STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS
BETWEEN MORICHES INLET AND MONTAUK POINT THIS EVENING. SEAS 7 TO
10 FT ONT HE OCEAN WATERS.

NLY WINDS BECOME NW TONIGHT AND THEN WEST ON SUN AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NE INTO FROM JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVE TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUN. WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
BELOW SCA SUN AFT INTO EVE...AND SEAS SUN NIGHT.

WINDS INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A STRONG STORM FORECAST
TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL PROBABLY NEED A GALE WATCH...AND
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WILL ADDRESS GALE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. WINDS AND SEAS
THEN DIMINISH WEDS AND THURS AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA
AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CURRENT FORECAST HAS ANYWHERE FROM AS LITTLE AS AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TO A LITTLE OVER AN
INCH IN ASSOCIATION WITH STORM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. PRECIP TYPE HOWEVER DOES APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY ALL
SNOW...REDUCING ADVERSE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS DURING THE STORM. THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE AMOUNTS.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A POTENTIAL INTENSE COASTAL STORM COULD BRING MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 250015
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
715 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL TRACK UP
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE THEN APPROACHES MONDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
CONTINUING NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER SYSTEM
THEN PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
***BRIEF SNOW BAND LI/CT EARLY...THEN BLACK ICE DEVELOPING
 TONIGHT***

BACK EDGE OF SNOW WILL BE EXITING THE FORKS REGION AND NEW LONDON
COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION...HAVE LET ALL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EXPIRE.

BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS OF 00Z ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S AND WILL
BE FALLING THROUGH THIS EVENING. TEMPS EVENTUALLY FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 20S INLAND...AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S CITY/COAST.
AS SUCH...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BLACK ICE ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...WITH WEAKENING POLAR FRONT APPROACHING SUNDAY MORNING.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS DRY...WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATO-CU.

BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS SUNDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST SUN NIGHT WITH POLAR HIGH SLIDING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS AND LOWER 20S NYC METRO. COULD GET
INTO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF
LONG ENOUGH.

THEREAFTER...ALL EYES ON STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUN AND INTO THE SE US SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER NW REGARDING A STORM THAT IS PROGGED TO
EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING MONDAY. AS THE STORM HEADS TO
THE NORTH...AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BECOMES STRONGLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED BEFORE A 500 MB LOW CLOSES SOUTH OF US AT SOME POINT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD DRAW THE STORM CLOSER TOWARDS
IT...EFFECTIVELY SLOWING DOWN ITS PROGRESS TO THE NE IN SPITE OF A
BLOCKING LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVING AWAY.

HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF
AND DEEPENING OF THE STORM...MESOSCALE BANDING BECOMES MORE LIKELY
AS WELL...BUT IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE
WHERE IT WOULD SET UP. BUT BASED THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
DEFORMATION THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING...BANDED PCPN WOULD MOVE AT
LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA...PERHAPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. PCPN TYPE LOOKS LIKE TO BE ALL SNOW. RIGHT NOW ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT WARM AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO THIS SYSTEM AND
CAUSES MIXED PCPN TYPES FOR EASTERN SECTIONS. SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE
THE NW TREND OF THE STORM`S TRACK...PCPN TYPE ISSUES COULD BE A
BIGGER CONCERN. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT A COLD AIR MASS WILL
ALREADY BE IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING THROUGH SE CANADA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PROMOTING PCPN TYPE OF SNOW.

DID NOT WANT TO TREND UPWARD TOO MUCH REGARDING POPS AND TOO HIGH
WITH QPF/SNOW TOTALS AT THIS POINT AS LIKELY POPS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FORECAST UNTIL THE 5TH PERIOD...BUT WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO
RFC AND WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FROM THE
HIGH QPF OUTPUT FROM ECMWF AND NAM...AND THE OTHER MODELS THAT DO
NOT SHOW AS MUCH. BUT BASED ON THE NW TREND OF THE STORM...DID
MAKE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY WEST OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT. FORECAST WINDS DURING THIS STORM COULD BE ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW...THINKING IS THAT EASTERN
AND OTHER COASTAL SECTIONS HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH. TOO EARLY FOR ANY HEADLINES REGARDING THE SNOW AND
WIND POTENTIAL...BUT WILL ADDRESS AT LEAST THE SNOW ASPECT IN THE
HWO AS WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA
IS INCREASING IN LIKELIHOOD.

BEHIND THE STORM...DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A
WEAKER LOW AFFECTS US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CAPPED POPS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW...WITH PCPN MORE LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT MIXED PCPN
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
** HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SEE OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS **

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPTIONS ARE AT KGON WHERE MVFR TO
BRIEF IFR IN RASN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 2Z...AND AT KSWF
WHERE MVFR FOG SHOULD LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WINDS ARE MAINLY WNW AROUND 10-15KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT
THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW INLAND LOCATIONS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WINDS BACK TO THE W OVERNIGHT AT 5-10KT THROUGHOUT. WNW WINDS
G15-20KT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN VEER
TO THE NW AND THE GUSTS ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY EVENING...VFR.
.LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. MVFR POSSIBLE IN -SN. E-NE
WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN
SNOW...HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT EASTERN TERMINALS. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SNOW WITH NE-N WINDS G35-45 KT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-35KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST WATERS THROUGH
SUN AFT...WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MARGINAL GALE GUSTS STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS
BETWEEN MORICHES INLET AND MONTAUK POINT THIS EVENING. SEAS 7 TO
10 FT ONT HE OCEAN WATERS.

NLY WINDS BECOME NW TONIGHT AND THEN WEST ON SUN AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NE INTO FROM JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVE TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUN. WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
BELOW SCA SUN AFT INTO EVE...AND SEAS SUN NIGHT.

WINDS INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A STRONG STORM FORECAST
TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL PROBABLY NEED A GALE WATCH...AND
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WILL ADDRESS GALE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. WINDS AND SEAS
THEN DIMINISH WEDS AND THURS AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA
AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CURRENT FORECAST HAS ANYWHERE FROM AS LITTLE AS AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TO A LITTLE OVER AN
INCH IN ASSOCIATION WITH STORM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. PRECIP TYPE HOWEVER DOES APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY ALL
SNOW...REDUCING ADVERSE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS DURING THE STORM. THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE AMOUNTS.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A POTENTIAL INTENSE COASTAL STORM COULD BRING MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 250015
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
715 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL TRACK UP
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE THEN APPROACHES MONDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
CONTINUING NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER SYSTEM
THEN PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
***BRIEF SNOW BAND LI/CT EARLY...THEN BLACK ICE DEVELOPING
 TONIGHT***

BACK EDGE OF SNOW WILL BE EXITING THE FORKS REGION AND NEW LONDON
COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION...HAVE LET ALL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EXPIRE.

BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS OF 00Z ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S AND WILL
BE FALLING THROUGH THIS EVENING. TEMPS EVENTUALLY FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 20S INLAND...AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S CITY/COAST.
AS SUCH...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BLACK ICE ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...WITH WEAKENING POLAR FRONT APPROACHING SUNDAY MORNING.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS DRY...WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATO-CU.

BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS SUNDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST SUN NIGHT WITH POLAR HIGH SLIDING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS AND LOWER 20S NYC METRO. COULD GET
INTO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF
LONG ENOUGH.

THEREAFTER...ALL EYES ON STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUN AND INTO THE SE US SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER NW REGARDING A STORM THAT IS PROGGED TO
EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING MONDAY. AS THE STORM HEADS TO
THE NORTH...AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BECOMES STRONGLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED BEFORE A 500 MB LOW CLOSES SOUTH OF US AT SOME POINT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD DRAW THE STORM CLOSER TOWARDS
IT...EFFECTIVELY SLOWING DOWN ITS PROGRESS TO THE NE IN SPITE OF A
BLOCKING LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVING AWAY.

HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF
AND DEEPENING OF THE STORM...MESOSCALE BANDING BECOMES MORE LIKELY
AS WELL...BUT IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE
WHERE IT WOULD SET UP. BUT BASED THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
DEFORMATION THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING...BANDED PCPN WOULD MOVE AT
LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA...PERHAPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. PCPN TYPE LOOKS LIKE TO BE ALL SNOW. RIGHT NOW ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT WARM AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO THIS SYSTEM AND
CAUSES MIXED PCPN TYPES FOR EASTERN SECTIONS. SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE
THE NW TREND OF THE STORM`S TRACK...PCPN TYPE ISSUES COULD BE A
BIGGER CONCERN. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT A COLD AIR MASS WILL
ALREADY BE IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING THROUGH SE CANADA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PROMOTING PCPN TYPE OF SNOW.

DID NOT WANT TO TREND UPWARD TOO MUCH REGARDING POPS AND TOO HIGH
WITH QPF/SNOW TOTALS AT THIS POINT AS LIKELY POPS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FORECAST UNTIL THE 5TH PERIOD...BUT WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO
RFC AND WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FROM THE
HIGH QPF OUTPUT FROM ECMWF AND NAM...AND THE OTHER MODELS THAT DO
NOT SHOW AS MUCH. BUT BASED ON THE NW TREND OF THE STORM...DID
MAKE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY WEST OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT. FORECAST WINDS DURING THIS STORM COULD BE ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW...THINKING IS THAT EASTERN
AND OTHER COASTAL SECTIONS HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH. TOO EARLY FOR ANY HEADLINES REGARDING THE SNOW AND
WIND POTENTIAL...BUT WILL ADDRESS AT LEAST THE SNOW ASPECT IN THE
HWO AS WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA
IS INCREASING IN LIKELIHOOD.

BEHIND THE STORM...DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A
WEAKER LOW AFFECTS US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CAPPED POPS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW...WITH PCPN MORE LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT MIXED PCPN
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
** HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SEE OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS **

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPTIONS ARE AT KGON WHERE MVFR TO
BRIEF IFR IN RASN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 2Z...AND AT KSWF
WHERE MVFR FOG SHOULD LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WINDS ARE MAINLY WNW AROUND 10-15KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT
THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW INLAND LOCATIONS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WINDS BACK TO THE W OVERNIGHT AT 5-10KT THROUGHOUT. WNW WINDS
G15-20KT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN VEER
TO THE NW AND THE GUSTS ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY EVENING...VFR.
.LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. MVFR POSSIBLE IN -SN. E-NE
WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN
SNOW...HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT EASTERN TERMINALS. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SNOW WITH NE-N WINDS G35-45 KT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-35KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST WATERS THROUGH
SUN AFT...WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MARGINAL GALE GUSTS STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS
BETWEEN MORICHES INLET AND MONTAUK POINT THIS EVENING. SEAS 7 TO
10 FT ONT HE OCEAN WATERS.

NLY WINDS BECOME NW TONIGHT AND THEN WEST ON SUN AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NE INTO FROM JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVE TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUN. WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
BELOW SCA SUN AFT INTO EVE...AND SEAS SUN NIGHT.

WINDS INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A STRONG STORM FORECAST
TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL PROBABLY NEED A GALE WATCH...AND
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WILL ADDRESS GALE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. WINDS AND SEAS
THEN DIMINISH WEDS AND THURS AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA
AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CURRENT FORECAST HAS ANYWHERE FROM AS LITTLE AS AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TO A LITTLE OVER AN
INCH IN ASSOCIATION WITH STORM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. PRECIP TYPE HOWEVER DOES APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY ALL
SNOW...REDUCING ADVERSE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS DURING THE STORM. THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE AMOUNTS.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A POTENTIAL INTENSE COASTAL STORM COULD BRING MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 250015
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
715 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL TRACK UP
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE THEN APPROACHES MONDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
CONTINUING NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER SYSTEM
THEN PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
***BRIEF SNOW BAND LI/CT EARLY...THEN BLACK ICE DEVELOPING
 TONIGHT***

BACK EDGE OF SNOW WILL BE EXITING THE FORKS REGION AND NEW LONDON
COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION...HAVE LET ALL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EXPIRE.

BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS OF 00Z ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S AND WILL
BE FALLING THROUGH THIS EVENING. TEMPS EVENTUALLY FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 20S INLAND...AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S CITY/COAST.
AS SUCH...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BLACK ICE ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...WITH WEAKENING POLAR FRONT APPROACHING SUNDAY MORNING.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS DRY...WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATO-CU.

BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS SUNDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST SUN NIGHT WITH POLAR HIGH SLIDING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS AND LOWER 20S NYC METRO. COULD GET
INTO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF
LONG ENOUGH.

THEREAFTER...ALL EYES ON STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUN AND INTO THE SE US SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER NW REGARDING A STORM THAT IS PROGGED TO
EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING MONDAY. AS THE STORM HEADS TO
THE NORTH...AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BECOMES STRONGLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED BEFORE A 500 MB LOW CLOSES SOUTH OF US AT SOME POINT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD DRAW THE STORM CLOSER TOWARDS
IT...EFFECTIVELY SLOWING DOWN ITS PROGRESS TO THE NE IN SPITE OF A
BLOCKING LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVING AWAY.

HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF
AND DEEPENING OF THE STORM...MESOSCALE BANDING BECOMES MORE LIKELY
AS WELL...BUT IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE
WHERE IT WOULD SET UP. BUT BASED THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
DEFORMATION THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING...BANDED PCPN WOULD MOVE AT
LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA...PERHAPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. PCPN TYPE LOOKS LIKE TO BE ALL SNOW. RIGHT NOW ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT WARM AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO THIS SYSTEM AND
CAUSES MIXED PCPN TYPES FOR EASTERN SECTIONS. SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE
THE NW TREND OF THE STORM`S TRACK...PCPN TYPE ISSUES COULD BE A
BIGGER CONCERN. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT A COLD AIR MASS WILL
ALREADY BE IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING THROUGH SE CANADA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PROMOTING PCPN TYPE OF SNOW.

DID NOT WANT TO TREND UPWARD TOO MUCH REGARDING POPS AND TOO HIGH
WITH QPF/SNOW TOTALS AT THIS POINT AS LIKELY POPS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FORECAST UNTIL THE 5TH PERIOD...BUT WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO
RFC AND WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FROM THE
HIGH QPF OUTPUT FROM ECMWF AND NAM...AND THE OTHER MODELS THAT DO
NOT SHOW AS MUCH. BUT BASED ON THE NW TREND OF THE STORM...DID
MAKE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY WEST OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT. FORECAST WINDS DURING THIS STORM COULD BE ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW...THINKING IS THAT EASTERN
AND OTHER COASTAL SECTIONS HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH. TOO EARLY FOR ANY HEADLINES REGARDING THE SNOW AND
WIND POTENTIAL...BUT WILL ADDRESS AT LEAST THE SNOW ASPECT IN THE
HWO AS WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA
IS INCREASING IN LIKELIHOOD.

BEHIND THE STORM...DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A
WEAKER LOW AFFECTS US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CAPPED POPS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW...WITH PCPN MORE LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT MIXED PCPN
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
** HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SEE OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS **

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPTIONS ARE AT KGON WHERE MVFR TO
BRIEF IFR IN RASN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 2Z...AND AT KSWF
WHERE MVFR FOG SHOULD LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WINDS ARE MAINLY WNW AROUND 10-15KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT
THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW INLAND LOCATIONS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WINDS BACK TO THE W OVERNIGHT AT 5-10KT THROUGHOUT. WNW WINDS
G15-20KT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN VEER
TO THE NW AND THE GUSTS ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY EVENING...VFR.
.LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. MVFR POSSIBLE IN -SN. E-NE
WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN
SNOW...HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT EASTERN TERMINALS. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SNOW WITH NE-N WINDS G35-45 KT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-35KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST WATERS THROUGH
SUN AFT...WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MARGINAL GALE GUSTS STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS
BETWEEN MORICHES INLET AND MONTAUK POINT THIS EVENING. SEAS 7 TO
10 FT ONT HE OCEAN WATERS.

NLY WINDS BECOME NW TONIGHT AND THEN WEST ON SUN AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NE INTO FROM JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVE TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUN. WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
BELOW SCA SUN AFT INTO EVE...AND SEAS SUN NIGHT.

WINDS INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A STRONG STORM FORECAST
TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL PROBABLY NEED A GALE WATCH...AND
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WILL ADDRESS GALE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. WINDS AND SEAS
THEN DIMINISH WEDS AND THURS AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA
AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CURRENT FORECAST HAS ANYWHERE FROM AS LITTLE AS AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TO A LITTLE OVER AN
INCH IN ASSOCIATION WITH STORM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. PRECIP TYPE HOWEVER DOES APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY ALL
SNOW...REDUCING ADVERSE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS DURING THE STORM. THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE AMOUNTS.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A POTENTIAL INTENSE COASTAL STORM COULD BRING MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KBUF 242355
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
655 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE FLURRIES AND AREAS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND CHANGE EVERYTHING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL REGION. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC ASCENT IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 11 PM FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING VERY SLICK ROAD
WAYS...AND WE HAVE HEARD COUNTLESS REPORTS OF ACCIDENTS ACROSS THE
AREA DUE TO THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE.

THE 00Z BUFFALO SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE MOISTURE IS BECOMING DEEPER
AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAD PROMISED...WITH THE PROFILE NEARLY
SATURATED UP TO ABOUT -15C. THIS SEEMS TO BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SEEN ON IR IMAGERY MOVING IN FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION TYPE HERE AT KBUF HAS BEEN SLUGGISH TO
RESPOND TO THIS INCREASING MOISTURE...AND A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE STILL REMAINS. HOWEVER...EXPECT THAT WE WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION OVER TO ALL LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. AREAS FROM
ROCHESTER ACROSS TO WATERTOWN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL THIS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS EASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS FORCING EVERYTHING TO
CHANGE BACK TO JUST SNOW. THE AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO
AROUND 7K FEET FOR A FEW HOURS. THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW OVERNIGHT
WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE LAKES FROM A COMBINATION OF WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND MORE IMPORTANTLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION. NOTE THAT EVEN THOUGH
LAKE ERIE NOW HAS PLENTY OF ICE COVER...THE EASTERN BASIN IS STILL
THIN AND SLUSHY...WHICH STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME TRANSFER OF SENSIBLE
AND LATENT HEAT TO THE ATMOSPHERE.

BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD PUSH A BROKEN BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH AND ONSHORE ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DUSTING TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION IN SOME
AREAS. SUNDAY MORNING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL QUICKLY
DROP AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT...FORCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE TO WEAKEN TO FLURRIES BY LATE MORNING. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH...
MAINLY FROM THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA INTO THE FINGER LAKES.

BY AFTERNOON EVEN THE FLURRIES SHOULD END AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
CRASH. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO ERODE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH NO OFF-LAKE FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID
20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL DROP SHARPLY LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND NOT BOTTOM OUT UNTIL MID TO LATE
MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAVE TEMPS IN THE TEENS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CUT SOUTH OF NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SHIELDS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM ITS IMPACTS. COLD AIR BROUGHT SOUTH BY THE ARCTIC HIGH
WILL ENSURE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND WELL BELOW ZERO EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 5 KNOTS IN THE NORTH COUNTY WILL
PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES WITH THE BITTERLY
COLD TEMPS.

ON MONDAY THE CLIPPER WILL SHIFT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND BEGIN TO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THIS COASTAL STORM ACROSS
PA/NY AND BENEATH A NEGATIVELY TILTING 500MB TROUGH. VERTICAL
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW PLENTIFUL MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW
PUSHING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER
LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
INTERSECTING THE FAVORED DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION. THESE
REGIONS COULD PICK UP 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SNOW
RATIOS.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER MOISTURE PROFILES
ARE QUITE A BIT THINNER AND DISPLACED BENEATH THE FAVORED DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH REGION. THIS SET UP MAY BRING A RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
RATHER THAN SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN -10C WITHIN THE CLOUD
LAYER MAY ONLY SUPPORT SUPER-COOLED DROPLETS. HAVE INCLUDED SNOW AS
A P-TYPE FOR NOW WITH JUST A MENTION OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HERE IN
THE DISCUSSION BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSER AS WE ROLL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL STORM WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A NORTH
WIND AND SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL LEAVE A
DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
PLUMMETING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS LOOK TO REACH BELOW ZERO
AGAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT DRIFT ACROSS NEW
YORK ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR REGION IS NOW
FORECAST TO CUT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS
MODELS SHOWING A TRACK TO OUR NORTH. THIS SOUTHERN TRACK ALONG WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE PICKED UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HAS BROUGHT AND
INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY. SNOW MAY
LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AS THE LOW CUTS ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. A TRAILING SURFACE HIGH SHOWN BY THE 12Z GFS AND
ECWMF WOULD BRING A COLD BUT DRY START TO NEXT WEEKEND.

ARRIVAL OF THE THE SHARPER ARCTIC AIRMASS WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING IN
THE LONG TERM HAS NOW BEEN PUSHED BACK TIL MONDAY. THIS WOULD BE
USHERED SOUTH BY YET ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH ON
SUNDAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A VERY COLD START TO FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CIGS ARE CURRENTLY A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR AND IFR WITHIN A LOW
STRATUS DECK...WITH IFR FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE CHANING OVER TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN THE MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR
VSBY BEFORE ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL RUN MVFR ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MVFR ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AND WAVES
DIMINISHING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KALY 242342
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
642 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BEHIND A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM...SOME LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS OR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. AN ARCTIC
AIR MASS MOVING IN BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COASTAL STORM WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 642 PM EST...COASTAL STORM CONTINUE TO DEPART AWAY FROM THE
AREA...AND STEADY SNOWFALL OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ENDED.
BACKEDGE OF THE CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
CLEARING SHOULD BE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY.

AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER
CENTRAL NY AND IS STARTING TO SPREAD TOWARDS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE LACK OF ICE NUCLEI IN SOME AREAS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SPOTS UPSTREAM...WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND A CHANCE FOR -SHSN FOR WESTERN AREAS THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY GENERALLY
DISSIPATING AS IT REACHES OUR AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF
FZDZ/FZRA BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...AN SPS OR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED.


A COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY
THE BOUNDARY AND SHORT WAVE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH LITTLE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONLY GRADUALLY TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...AND MAY WIND UP HOLDING STEADY FOR MANY LOCATIONS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S. FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY FALL LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE TEENS AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED AROUND DAY BREAK ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND BEFORE MIDDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LITTLE RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION THE BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IN
FEEL EVEN COLDER.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE. THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY. HOWEVER ALOFT AN
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT/DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

IT WILL BE COLD AND FAIR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES OUR
WEATHER. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH BELOW
ZERO READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MONDAY WITH GREATER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS AND IS DRAWN UNDER THE UPPER LOW MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF ACTIVE...ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF
IMPACT IS STILL YET TO BE DETERMINED. IN ADDITION...RATHER COLD
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE COAST AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN ON TUESDAY. THIS IS SHOWN
IN THE 12Z ECMWF...GGEM...GFS...NAM AND MOST MEMBERS OF THE 12Z
GEFS.  THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BECOME CUT OFF...ALLOWING FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH
OF NEW ENGLAND.  OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TRACK IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.  WHILE
SOME SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY...AMOUNTS ARE STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
WHILE THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF BOTH HAD A LOT OF PRECIP OVER OUR AREA...THE
12Z GGEM/GFS AND 18Z NAM KEPT THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO OUR EAST. AT
THIS POINT...WILL FAVOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER FOR THE MOST
SNOWFALL AND HIGHEST POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
STILL...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS STORM TO TRACK CLOSER TO OUR
AREA AND BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE ENTIRE CWA...AND THE
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING CUTOFF...THIS MAKES THE FORECAST
RATHER DIFFICULT AND PARTICULAR UNCERTAIN. WE WILL MENTION THIS
SYSTEM IN OUR HWO. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL WITH AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND
LOWS BETWEEN -10 AND 5.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE STORM WILL BE MOVING AWAY...BUT IT REMAIN COLD
AND BLUSTERY BEHIND THE SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S FOR WED...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR WED NIGHT. NO PRECIP
IS EXPECTED...WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOK TO IMPACT THE REGION
SOMETIME BETWEEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. A ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW LOOKS TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR ALL AREAS. TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR THURS/FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
THURS NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM.
MIN ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. IT WILL BE COLD AND
BLUSTERY FOR SATURDAY WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...AND HIGHS IN THE
TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THIS EVENING...AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR MIST/LOW
STRATUS...MAINLY FOR KGFL OR KPSF. OTHERWISE...ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT
THANKS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP
THINGS MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS FROM
OCCURRING. OTHERWISE CIGS WILL BE BKN-OVC AT AROUND 5-6 KFT FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO OCCUR EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.  THE WIND SHIFT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE SUBTLE...DUE TO W-NW FLOW ALREADY IN PLACE BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COASTAL STORM. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY FOR
SUNDAY AT AROUND 10 KTS.

CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...BECOMING NEARLY CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY ABOUT MIDDAY.
LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY
FOR VALLEY SITES DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 242342
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
642 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BEHIND A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM...SOME LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS OR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. AN ARCTIC
AIR MASS MOVING IN BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COASTAL STORM WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 642 PM EST...COASTAL STORM CONTINUE TO DEPART AWAY FROM THE
AREA...AND STEADY SNOWFALL OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ENDED.
BACKEDGE OF THE CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
CLEARING SHOULD BE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY.

AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER
CENTRAL NY AND IS STARTING TO SPREAD TOWARDS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE LACK OF ICE NUCLEI IN SOME AREAS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SPOTS UPSTREAM...WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND A CHANCE FOR -SHSN FOR WESTERN AREAS THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY GENERALLY
DISSIPATING AS IT REACHES OUR AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF
FZDZ/FZRA BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...AN SPS OR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED.


A COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY
THE BOUNDARY AND SHORT WAVE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH LITTLE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONLY GRADUALLY TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...AND MAY WIND UP HOLDING STEADY FOR MANY LOCATIONS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S. FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY FALL LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE TEENS AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED AROUND DAY BREAK ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND BEFORE MIDDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LITTLE RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION THE BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IN
FEEL EVEN COLDER.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE. THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY. HOWEVER ALOFT AN
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT/DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

IT WILL BE COLD AND FAIR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES OUR
WEATHER. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH BELOW
ZERO READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MONDAY WITH GREATER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS AND IS DRAWN UNDER THE UPPER LOW MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF ACTIVE...ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF
IMPACT IS STILL YET TO BE DETERMINED. IN ADDITION...RATHER COLD
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE COAST AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN ON TUESDAY. THIS IS SHOWN
IN THE 12Z ECMWF...GGEM...GFS...NAM AND MOST MEMBERS OF THE 12Z
GEFS.  THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BECOME CUT OFF...ALLOWING FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH
OF NEW ENGLAND.  OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TRACK IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.  WHILE
SOME SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY...AMOUNTS ARE STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
WHILE THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF BOTH HAD A LOT OF PRECIP OVER OUR AREA...THE
12Z GGEM/GFS AND 18Z NAM KEPT THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO OUR EAST. AT
THIS POINT...WILL FAVOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER FOR THE MOST
SNOWFALL AND HIGHEST POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
STILL...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS STORM TO TRACK CLOSER TO OUR
AREA AND BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE ENTIRE CWA...AND THE
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING CUTOFF...THIS MAKES THE FORECAST
RATHER DIFFICULT AND PARTICULAR UNCERTAIN. WE WILL MENTION THIS
SYSTEM IN OUR HWO. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL WITH AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND
LOWS BETWEEN -10 AND 5.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE STORM WILL BE MOVING AWAY...BUT IT REMAIN COLD
AND BLUSTERY BEHIND THE SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S FOR WED...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR WED NIGHT. NO PRECIP
IS EXPECTED...WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOK TO IMPACT THE REGION
SOMETIME BETWEEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. A ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW LOOKS TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR ALL AREAS. TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR THURS/FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
THURS NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM.
MIN ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. IT WILL BE COLD AND
BLUSTERY FOR SATURDAY WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...AND HIGHS IN THE
TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THIS EVENING...AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR MIST/LOW
STRATUS...MAINLY FOR KGFL OR KPSF. OTHERWISE...ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT
THANKS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP
THINGS MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS FROM
OCCURRING. OTHERWISE CIGS WILL BE BKN-OVC AT AROUND 5-6 KFT FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO OCCUR EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.  THE WIND SHIFT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE SUBTLE...DUE TO W-NW FLOW ALREADY IN PLACE BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COASTAL STORM. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY FOR
SUNDAY AT AROUND 10 KTS.

CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...BECOMING NEARLY CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY ABOUT MIDDAY.
LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY
FOR VALLEY SITES DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 242325
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
625 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO
THE NORTH. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A POTENTIAL STRONG SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A POTENTIALLY
STRONG SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 624 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST GENERALLY HOLDING UP WELL,
BUT I DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN TERMS OF
SKY COVER, POPS AND WEATHER ELEMENTS. I`VE TRIED TO BETTER SHOW
SKY TRENDS EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY WHICH DEPICT AN AREA OF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SANDWICHED BETWEEN LAYERS OF STRATUS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AND AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THAT WILL CONTINE TO FILL IN FROM W
TO E THIS EVENING.

FRANKTOWN ONTARIO RADAR DEPICTS AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN ONTARIO AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT, WHICH PER RAP ANALYSES
IS STILL NORTHWEST OF OTTAWA. THESE WILL SPREAD INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY SHORTLY. FOR THAT REASON, I`VE OPTED TO GO WITH
AREAL COVERAGE WORDING. SOME LOWERED VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THESE SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH I`M NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SNOW
SQUALLS AS CONVECTIVE DEPTH IS VERY SHALLOW (GENERALLY UNDER 1 KM
AGL AS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS). I`VE TIMED ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM AND SWEEP FURTHER
SOUTHEAST ACROSS VERMONT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL THINK
D-2" OF SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

ASIDE FROM MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS, I`VE MADE NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SURGE OF COLD AIR
AND LEAVE THE AREA LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS ON
SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MONDAY THE BROAD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION SO MONDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER QUITE COLD DAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY MONDAY NIGHT A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A STRONG COASTAL STORM OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS VERY GOOD
CONSENSUS AMONG MEDIUM RANGED MODELS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
AND TRACK JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHICH MEANS THAT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP LOOKS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHERE SOME OF
THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW. AT THIS POINT WITH THE VARIABLE
NATURE OF THE TRACK AND THE FACT THAT AS OF YESTERDAY THE ECWMF
WAS THE ONLY LONG RANGE MODEL WITH THE SYSTEM I`VE BEEN HESITANT
TO ADD IN FINE SCALE DETAILS TO THE FORECAST CONCERNING SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EST SATURDAY...QUITE A CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...AS
ECMWF...GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE AREA BOMBING
OUT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. MODELS SPREAD SNOW FURTHER
WEST INTO VERMONT AND INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. ECMWF APPEARS
TO BE THE OUTLIER ON TUESDAY AS IT HAS THE LOW WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE BENCHMARK AT 18Z TUESDAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK BY 18Z TUESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE
LOW. HAVE OPTED TO GO HIGHER THAN THE SUPER-BLEND POPS ON TUESDAY
AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL OF VERMONT AND THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK.

MODELS SHOW SNOW WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW STARTS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. HOWEVER...HAVE STILL GONE HIGHER
THAN SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON FRIDAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR MVFR CEILINGS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LOWER LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM CANADA. EXPECTING
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FROM 04Z-12Z SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FROM
07Z-14Z SUNDAY ACROSS VERMONT. EXPECTING SURFACE WIND GUSTS FROM
THE NORTHWEST AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS FROM 06Z-14Z SUNDAY THROUGH
18Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...DEVELOPING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL/LOCONTO
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WGH



000
FXUS61 KBGM 242317
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
617 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF
PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. COOLER WEATHER AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE ALONG A SOUTHWARD DROPPING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN MONDAY MORNING, SPREADING LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE SNOW WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND POINTS SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
545 PM...A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST AS PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA. UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE A MIX OF VERY LIGHT
SNOW AND SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION SHORTLY AS THE NEXT SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
MESOSCALE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS MIX MAY CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE THIS EVENING WHEN THE COLUMN WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW.
SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SHORT TERM.

1 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOW IS NOW SITTING A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF CAPE COD
BRINGING WINTRY PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW, SLEET AND RAIN TO NEW
ENGLAND. LGT SNOW HAS ALL BUT EXITED CWA RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. SNOW
REPORTS RANGE FM A DUSTING IN THE SRN TIER OF NY TO AS MUCH AS ISOLD
7-8 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-84.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BRIEFLY MAKING AN APPEARANCE AT SFC-H8 HAS ALLOWED
CLRNG TO DVLP ACRS CNTRL NY AND WL MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACRS ALL OF
CWA THIS AFTN AS IT MVS SOUTH. HWVR, SKIES WL QUICKLY CLD BACK UP
AHD OF IMPENDING CDFNT WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FM CNTRL QUEBEC
INTO THE UPR LAKES AND DROPPING SOUTH.

LGT SNOW SHOWERS WL DVLP AHD OF BNDRY LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG. NOT
EXPECTING FRONT TO GET INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THUS THINK
THAT CHC POPS LOOK BEST THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS BNDRY SLIDES
SOUTH AWAY FM LAKE EXPECTING FLURRIES AND/OR ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WL
DROP DOWN INTO SRN TIER BY DAYBREAK. JUST A DUSTING AT BEST EXPECTED
RIGHT NOW.

H8 TEMPS WL NOT DROP ENUF TO PRODUCE ANY ORGANIZED LK EFFECT SNOWS
TONIGHT WITH DELTA T`S EXPECTED TO BE 10C THRU MRNG HRS. THUS THINK
SCTD SNOW SHOWERS HANDLE IT BEST AT THIS POINT IN TIME. AFT FROPA
BTWN 06Z AND 09Z FLOW WL ALIGN ITSELF ARND 300 DEGREES WITH AN INCH
OR TWO EXPECTED BY MRNG ACRS FAVORED LK ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE HIPRES BUILDING IN FM THE NORTH BRINGING PSUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA BY AFTN. NRLY FLOW STRAIGHT FM CANADA WL ALSO BE
BROUGHT IN WITH TEMPS RMNG STEADY OR GRADUALLY FALLING THRU THE DAY
ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN ZONES. WHERE TEMPS ARE, ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY AT 12Z, WL BE THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY THEN FALLING FURTHER
SOUTH AS THE DAY CONTS. DRY AIR WL BE MVG IN FM ALOFT QUICKLY
DIMINISHING PCPN BY LATE MRNG WITH NO -SHSN EXPECTED AFT 18Z.

SYSTEM NOW UP OVR THE NRN ROCKIES WL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST DRG THE DAY
SUNDAY. ALL MED RANGE MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK
DRG THE DAY AS 12Z GFS, EC, NAM AND CMC HV IT LOCATED ALONG THE
IL/IA/MO LINE BY 12Z SUNDAY. DRY 1024MB SFC HIGH WL HELP SHUNT
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH ACRS THE OH VLY ON SUNDAY WITH NO SNOW EXPECTED.
SFC LOW SCOOTS EAST DRG THE OVRNGT BUT SFC HIGH WL ALSO HOLD TIGHT
THUS EXPECT LGT SNOW TO BEGIN DOWN ACRS POCONOS ARND 06Z. AS HIGH
RELAXES ITS GRIP AND BUILDS INTO ERN CANADA BY DAYBREAK EXPECT THAT
PCPN WL SLIDE NORTH TWD THE STATE LINE BY 12Z MONDAY.

INVERTED TROF EXPECTED TO BRING LGT SNOW TO MOST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE ERN SEABOARD. EXPECTING A
GNRLY 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW, MAINLY FOR SWRN CNTYS THRU 00Z TUESDAY.
INTENSE NOREASTER WL LKLY BRING A FOOT+ TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THRU
MID-WEEK. WITH SFC HIGH STILL HOLDING TIGHT TO EXTRM NRN PARTS OF FA
THERE WL LKLY BE A SHARP LINE BTWN SNOW-NO SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
245 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

A COUPLE OF WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE COASTAL STORM WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO IMPACT THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. WED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION BUT WILL BE QUICKLY PUSHED TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER
CLIPPER APPROACHES NY AND PA. THIS CLIPPER WILL IMPACT THE CWA
CREATING SNOW SHOWERS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO START LATE THURS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR SAT.

TEMPS WED WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM WITH MINIMUM TEMPS
FALLING TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON THURS
AND FRI REACHING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS... THEN FALL BACK BELOW ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM SLIDING EAST WILL CAUSE A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND LIGHT SNOW TO FORM OVER THE NY TERMINALS THIS EVENING. MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST, WITH VERY BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

CEILINGS WILL LIFT AROUND NOON TOMORROW INTO VFR TERRITORY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-MON...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE -SN AT KAVP AS CLIPPER PASSES.

MON NGT-TUE...MINOR RESTRICTIONS FROM LAKE CLOUDS AND/OR -SN...MAINLY
NY TERMINALS.

TUE NGT-WED...MAINLY VFR.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 242317
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
617 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF
PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. COOLER WEATHER AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE ALONG A SOUTHWARD DROPPING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN MONDAY MORNING, SPREADING LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE SNOW WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND POINTS SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
545 PM...A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST AS PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA. UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE A MIX OF VERY LIGHT
SNOW AND SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION SHORTLY AS THE NEXT SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
MESOSCALE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS MIX MAY CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE THIS EVENING WHEN THE COLUMN WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW.
SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SHORT TERM.

1 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOW IS NOW SITTING A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF CAPE COD
BRINGING WINTRY PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW, SLEET AND RAIN TO NEW
ENGLAND. LGT SNOW HAS ALL BUT EXITED CWA RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. SNOW
REPORTS RANGE FM A DUSTING IN THE SRN TIER OF NY TO AS MUCH AS ISOLD
7-8 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-84.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BRIEFLY MAKING AN APPEARANCE AT SFC-H8 HAS ALLOWED
CLRNG TO DVLP ACRS CNTRL NY AND WL MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACRS ALL OF
CWA THIS AFTN AS IT MVS SOUTH. HWVR, SKIES WL QUICKLY CLD BACK UP
AHD OF IMPENDING CDFNT WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FM CNTRL QUEBEC
INTO THE UPR LAKES AND DROPPING SOUTH.

LGT SNOW SHOWERS WL DVLP AHD OF BNDRY LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG. NOT
EXPECTING FRONT TO GET INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THUS THINK
THAT CHC POPS LOOK BEST THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS BNDRY SLIDES
SOUTH AWAY FM LAKE EXPECTING FLURRIES AND/OR ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WL
DROP DOWN INTO SRN TIER BY DAYBREAK. JUST A DUSTING AT BEST EXPECTED
RIGHT NOW.

H8 TEMPS WL NOT DROP ENUF TO PRODUCE ANY ORGANIZED LK EFFECT SNOWS
TONIGHT WITH DELTA T`S EXPECTED TO BE 10C THRU MRNG HRS. THUS THINK
SCTD SNOW SHOWERS HANDLE IT BEST AT THIS POINT IN TIME. AFT FROPA
BTWN 06Z AND 09Z FLOW WL ALIGN ITSELF ARND 300 DEGREES WITH AN INCH
OR TWO EXPECTED BY MRNG ACRS FAVORED LK ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE HIPRES BUILDING IN FM THE NORTH BRINGING PSUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA BY AFTN. NRLY FLOW STRAIGHT FM CANADA WL ALSO BE
BROUGHT IN WITH TEMPS RMNG STEADY OR GRADUALLY FALLING THRU THE DAY
ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN ZONES. WHERE TEMPS ARE, ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY AT 12Z, WL BE THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY THEN FALLING FURTHER
SOUTH AS THE DAY CONTS. DRY AIR WL BE MVG IN FM ALOFT QUICKLY
DIMINISHING PCPN BY LATE MRNG WITH NO -SHSN EXPECTED AFT 18Z.

SYSTEM NOW UP OVR THE NRN ROCKIES WL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST DRG THE DAY
SUNDAY. ALL MED RANGE MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK
DRG THE DAY AS 12Z GFS, EC, NAM AND CMC HV IT LOCATED ALONG THE
IL/IA/MO LINE BY 12Z SUNDAY. DRY 1024MB SFC HIGH WL HELP SHUNT
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH ACRS THE OH VLY ON SUNDAY WITH NO SNOW EXPECTED.
SFC LOW SCOOTS EAST DRG THE OVRNGT BUT SFC HIGH WL ALSO HOLD TIGHT
THUS EXPECT LGT SNOW TO BEGIN DOWN ACRS POCONOS ARND 06Z. AS HIGH
RELAXES ITS GRIP AND BUILDS INTO ERN CANADA BY DAYBREAK EXPECT THAT
PCPN WL SLIDE NORTH TWD THE STATE LINE BY 12Z MONDAY.

INVERTED TROF EXPECTED TO BRING LGT SNOW TO MOST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE ERN SEABOARD. EXPECTING A
GNRLY 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW, MAINLY FOR SWRN CNTYS THRU 00Z TUESDAY.
INTENSE NOREASTER WL LKLY BRING A FOOT+ TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THRU
MID-WEEK. WITH SFC HIGH STILL HOLDING TIGHT TO EXTRM NRN PARTS OF FA
THERE WL LKLY BE A SHARP LINE BTWN SNOW-NO SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
245 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

A COUPLE OF WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE COASTAL STORM WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO IMPACT THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. WED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION BUT WILL BE QUICKLY PUSHED TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER
CLIPPER APPROACHES NY AND PA. THIS CLIPPER WILL IMPACT THE CWA
CREATING SNOW SHOWERS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO START LATE THURS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR SAT.

TEMPS WED WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM WITH MINIMUM TEMPS
FALLING TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON THURS
AND FRI REACHING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS... THEN FALL BACK BELOW ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM SLIDING EAST WILL CAUSE A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND LIGHT SNOW TO FORM OVER THE NY TERMINALS THIS EVENING. MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST, WITH VERY BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

CEILINGS WILL LIFT AROUND NOON TOMORROW INTO VFR TERRITORY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-MON...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE -SN AT KAVP AS CLIPPER PASSES.

MON NGT-TUE...MINOR RESTRICTIONS FROM LAKE CLOUDS AND/OR -SN...MAINLY
NY TERMINALS.

TUE NGT-WED...MAINLY VFR.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DJP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 242246
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
546 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF
PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. COOLER WEATHER AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE ALONG A SOUTHWARD DROPPING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN MONDAY MORNING, SPREADING LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE SNOW WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND POINTS SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
545 PM...A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST AS PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA. UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE A MIX OF VERY LIGHT
SNOW AND SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION SHORTLY AS THE NEXT SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
MESOSCALE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS MIX MAY CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE THIS EVENING WHEN THE COLUMN WILL COOL ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW.
SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SHORT TERM.

1 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOW IS NOW SITTING A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF CAPE COD
BRINGING WINTRY PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW, SLEET AND RAIN TO NEW
ENGLAND. LGT SNOW HAS ALL BUT EXITED CWA RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. SNOW
REPORTS RANGE FM A DUSTING IN THE SRN TIER OF NY TO AS MUCH AS ISOLD
7-8 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-84.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BRIEFLY MAKING AN APPEARANCE AT SFC-H8 HAS ALLOWED
CLRNG TO DVLP ACRS CNTRL NY AND WL MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACRS ALL OF
CWA THIS AFTN AS IT MVS SOUTH. HWVR, SKIES WL QUICKLY CLD BACK UP
AHD OF IMPENDING CDFNT WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FM CNTRL QUEBEC
INTO THE UPR LAKES AND DROPPING SOUTH.

LGT SNOW SHOWERS WL DVLP AHD OF BNDRY LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG. NOT
EXPECTING FRONT TO GET INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THUS THINK
THAT CHC POPS LOOK BEST THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS BNDRY SLIDES
SOUTH AWAY FM LAKE EXPECTING FLURRIES AND/OR ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WL
DROP DOWN INTO SRN TIER BY DAYBREAK. JUST A DUSTING AT BEST EXPECTED
RIGHT NOW.

H8 TEMPS WL NOT DROP ENUF TO PRODUCE ANY ORGANIZED LK EFFECT SNOWS
TONIGHT WITH DELTA T`S EXPECTED TO BE 10C THRU MRNG HRS. THUS THINK
SCTD SNOW SHOWERS HANDLE IT BEST AT THIS POINT IN TIME. AFT FROPA
BTWN 06Z AND 09Z FLOW WL ALIGN ITSELF ARND 300 DEGREES WITH AN INCH
OR TWO EXPECTED BY MRNG ACRS FAVORED LK ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE HIPRES BUILDING IN FM THE NORTH BRINGING PSUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA BY AFTN. NRLY FLOW STRAIGHT FM CANADA WL ALSO BE
BROUGHT IN WITH TEMPS RMNG STEADY OR GRADUALLY FALLING THRU THE DAY
ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN ZONES. WHERE TEMPS ARE, ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY AT 12Z, WL BE THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY THEN FALLING FURTHER
SOUTH AS THE DAY CONTS. DRY AIR WL BE MVG IN FM ALOFT QUICKLY
DIMINISHING PCPN BY LATE MRNG WITH NO -SHSN EXPECTED AFT 18Z.

SYSTEM NOW UP OVR THE NRN ROCKIES WL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST DRG THE DAY
SUNDAY. ALL MED RANGE MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK
DRG THE DAY AS 12Z GFS, EC, NAM AND CMC HV IT LOCATED ALONG THE
IL/IA/MO LINE BY 12Z SUNDAY. DRY 1024MB SFC HIGH WL HELP SHUNT
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH ACRS THE OH VLY ON SUNDAY WITH NO SNOW EXPECTED.
SFC LOW SCOOTS EAST DRG THE OVRNGT BUT SFC HIGH WL ALSO HOLD TIGHT
THUS EXPECT LGT SNOW TO BEGIN DOWN ACRS POCONOS ARND 06Z. AS HIGH
RELAXES ITS GRIP AND BUILDS INTO ERN CANADA BY DAYBREAK EXPECT THAT
PCPN WL SLIDE NORTH TWD THE STATE LINE BY 12Z MONDAY.

INVERTED TROF EXPECTED TO BRING LGT SNOW TO MOST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE ERN SEABOARD. EXPECTING A
GNRLY 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW, MAINLY FOR SWRN CNTYS THRU 00Z TUESDAY.
INTENSE NOREASTER WL LKLY BRING A FOOT+ TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THRU
MID-WEEK. WITH SFC HIGH STILL HOLDING TIGHT TO EXTRM NRN PARTS OF FA
THERE WL LKLY BE A SHARP LINE BTWN SNOW-NO SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
245 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

A COUPLE OF WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE COASTAL STORM WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO IMPACT THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. WED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION BUT WILL BE QUICKLY PUSHED TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER
CLIPPER APPROACHES NY AND PA. THIS CLIPPER WILL IMPACT THE CWA
CREATING SNOW SHOWERS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO START LATE THURS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR SAT.

TEMPS WED WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM WITH MINIMUM TEMPS
FALLING TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON THURS
AND FRI REACHING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS... THEN FALL BACK BELOW ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM IS PUSHING EAST OUT OF NE PA THIS
AFTERNOON AND COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION. SNOW SHOWERS AT KAVP ARE EXPECTED TO END
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. WE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER... THUS WE WILL SEE A
FEW HOURS OF VFR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST
PA. COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AROUND 09Z AND MAY GENERATE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-MON...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE -SN AT KAVP AS CLIPPER PASSES.

MON NGT-TUE...MINOR RESTRICTIONS FROM LAKE CLOUDS AND/OR -SN...MAINLY
NY TERMINALS.

TUE NGT-WED...MAINLY VFR.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF/RRM
NEAR TERM...PVF/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH







000
FXUS61 KALY 242206
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
506 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD
FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
RESULTING IN SOME SNOW SHOWERS. IN THE WAKE OF THESE SYSTEMS...A
SURGE OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION.
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM AS THE
COASTAL STORM`S DEFORMATION BAND MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT.
FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA PLEASE
REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS.

A COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY
THE BOUNDARY AND SHORT WAVE. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A DRY LAYER
ALOFT WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONLY GRADUALLY TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED AROUND DAY BREAK ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND BEFORE MIDDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LITTLE RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION THE BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IN
FEEL EVEN COLDER.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE. THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY. HOWEVER ALOFT AN
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT/DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

IT WILL BE COLD AND FAIR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES OUR
WEATHER. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH BELOW
ZERO READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MONDAY WITH GREATER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS AND IS DRAWN UNDER THE UPPER LOW MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF ACTIVE...ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF
IMPACT IS STILL YET TO BE DETERMINED. IN ADDITION...RATHER COLD
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE COAST AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN ON TUESDAY. THIS IS SHOWN
IN THE 12Z ECMWF...GGEM...GFS...NAM AND MOST MEMBERS OF THE 12Z
GEFS.  THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BECOME CUT OFF...ALLOWING FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH
OF NEW ENGLAND.  OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TRACK IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.  WHILE
SOME SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY...AMOUNTS ARE STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
WHILE THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF BOTH HAD A LOT OF PRECIP OVER OUR AREA...THE
12Z GGEM/GFS AND 18Z NAM KEPT THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO OUR EAST. AT
THIS POINT...WILL FAVOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER FOR THE MOST
SNOWFALL AND HIGHEST POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
STILL...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS STORM TO TRACK CLOSER TO OUR
AREA AND BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE ENTIRE CWA...AND THE
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING CUTOFF...THIS MAKES THE FORECAST
RATHER DIFFICULT AND PARTICULAR UNCERTAIN. WE WILL MENTION THIS
SYSTEM IN OUR HWO. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL WITH AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND
LOWS BETWEEN -10 AND 5.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE STORM WILL BE MOVING AWAY...BUT IT REMAIN COLD
AND BLUSTERY BEHIND THE SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S FOR WED...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR WED NIGHT. NO PRECIP
IS EXPECTED...WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOK TO IMPACT THE REGION
SOMETIME BETWEEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. A ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW LOOKS TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR ALL AREAS. TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR THURS/FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
THURS NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM.
MIN ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. IT WILL BE COLD AND
BLUSTERY FOR SATURDAY WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...AND HIGHS IN THE
TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONE LAST THIN BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TRACKING EXITING KALB AND HEADED
TOWARD KPSF. JUST A LITTLE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AT KALB THROUGH
ABOUT 19Z. KPOU STILL HAS SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW LINGERING...BUT
SHOULD END AROUND 21Z. THE THIN TRAILING BAND OF SNOW IS MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KGFL AND KALB AND WILL AFFECT KPSF THROUGH 19Z OR
20Z.

BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...SOME VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KGFL
AND KALB...BUT LIKELY KPSF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KPOU
COULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LESS PROGRESS TO THE EXIT OF THE SNOW IN
SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT ALL
SITES THIS EVENING...THEN AN MVFR CEILING SHOULD DEVELOP AND SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 06Z...AND LAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...PERHAPS TO 15Z. AFTER 15Z...ALL TAF SITES SHOULD
RETURN TO UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOULD BECOME WEST THIS EVENING...THEN NORTHWEST LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  AFTER 15Z...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT AND COULD BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON..

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ061-065-066.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 242206
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
506 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD
FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
RESULTING IN SOME SNOW SHOWERS. IN THE WAKE OF THESE SYSTEMS...A
SURGE OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION.
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM AS THE
COASTAL STORM`S DEFORMATION BAND MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT.
FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA PLEASE
REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS.

A COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY
THE BOUNDARY AND SHORT WAVE. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A DRY LAYER
ALOFT WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONLY GRADUALLY TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED AROUND DAY BREAK ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND BEFORE MIDDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LITTLE RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION THE BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IN
FEEL EVEN COLDER.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE. THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY. HOWEVER ALOFT AN
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT/DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

IT WILL BE COLD AND FAIR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES OUR
WEATHER. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH BELOW
ZERO READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MONDAY WITH GREATER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS AND IS DRAWN UNDER THE UPPER LOW MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF ACTIVE...ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF
IMPACT IS STILL YET TO BE DETERMINED. IN ADDITION...RATHER COLD
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE COAST AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN ON TUESDAY. THIS IS SHOWN
IN THE 12Z ECMWF...GGEM...GFS...NAM AND MOST MEMBERS OF THE 12Z
GEFS.  THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BECOME CUT OFF...ALLOWING FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH
OF NEW ENGLAND.  OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TRACK IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.  WHILE
SOME SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY...AMOUNTS ARE STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
WHILE THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF BOTH HAD A LOT OF PRECIP OVER OUR AREA...THE
12Z GGEM/GFS AND 18Z NAM KEPT THE HEAVIER PRECIP TO OUR EAST. AT
THIS POINT...WILL FAVOR AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER FOR THE MOST
SNOWFALL AND HIGHEST POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
STILL...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS STORM TO TRACK CLOSER TO OUR
AREA AND BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE ENTIRE CWA...AND THE
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING CUTOFF...THIS MAKES THE FORECAST
RATHER DIFFICULT AND PARTICULAR UNCERTAIN. WE WILL MENTION THIS
SYSTEM IN OUR HWO. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL WITH AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND
LOWS BETWEEN -10 AND 5.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE STORM WILL BE MOVING AWAY...BUT IT REMAIN COLD
AND BLUSTERY BEHIND THE SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S FOR WED...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR WED NIGHT. NO PRECIP
IS EXPECTED...WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOK TO IMPACT THE REGION
SOMETIME BETWEEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. A ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW LOOKS TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR ALL AREAS. TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR THURS/FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
THURS NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM.
MIN ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. IT WILL BE COLD AND
BLUSTERY FOR SATURDAY WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...AND HIGHS IN THE
TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONE LAST THIN BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TRACKING EXITING KALB AND HEADED
TOWARD KPSF. JUST A LITTLE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AT KALB THROUGH
ABOUT 19Z. KPOU STILL HAS SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW LINGERING...BUT
SHOULD END AROUND 21Z. THE THIN TRAILING BAND OF SNOW IS MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KGFL AND KALB AND WILL AFFECT KPSF THROUGH 19Z OR
20Z.

BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...SOME VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KGFL
AND KALB...BUT LIKELY KPSF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KPOU
COULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LESS PROGRESS TO THE EXIT OF THE SNOW IN
SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT ALL
SITES THIS EVENING...THEN AN MVFR CEILING SHOULD DEVELOP AND SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 06Z...AND LAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...PERHAPS TO 15Z. AFTER 15Z...ALL TAF SITES SHOULD
RETURN TO UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOULD BECOME WEST THIS EVENING...THEN NORTHWEST LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  AFTER 15Z...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT AND COULD BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON..

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ061-065-066.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KOKX 242145
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
445 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO CAPE COD THIS EVENING
AND THEN UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE THEN APPROACHES MONDAY
AND PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE CONTINUING NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER
SYSTEM THEN PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
***BRIEF SNOW BAND LI/CT EARLY...THEN BLACK ICE DEVELOPING
 TONIGHT***

LOW PRESSURE...SE OF MONTAUK POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO E OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING.

IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING NORTHERN AND THEN SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY...OPERATIONAL AND HIGH RES MODELS STILL SIGNALING A
DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 19Z
AND 21Z...AND SLOWLY TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 TENTHS OF QPF POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND...MAINLY
EAST OF THE HUDSON...AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS SE CT/E LI.

THERMAL PROFILES AND DYNAMIC COOLING WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRANSITION
ANY LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW COULD BE
BRIEFLY MODERATE TO HEAVY WITH THIS BAND ACROSS LI/CT.

SO AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO 1 INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR NYC METRO
AND EASTERN LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. COATING TO 2 INCH POTENTIAL
ACROSS LI/CT. A WORST CASE OF AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT. LOW PROB FOR THIS WORST CASE THREAT TO EXTEND DOWN TO
LI.

THE SNOW BAND WILL MOVE EAST FROM W TO E LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING.

ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN DROPPED WEST OF THE HUDSON BASED ON
ABOVE...AND MAY BE ABLE TO DROP NYC/EASTERN HUDSON AT 4 PM BASED
ON BANDING DEVELOPMENT. ADVISORIES FARTHER EAST WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENDED TILL 00Z.

TEMPS WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY OF SLOWLY RISE INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 30S TODAY.

SNOW ENDS AFTER 00Z ACROSS FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
INLAND....AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S CITY/COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...WITH WEAKENING POLAR FRONT APPROACHING SUNDAY MORNING.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS DRY...WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATO-CU.

BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS SUNDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST SUN NIGHT WITH POLAR HIGH SLIDING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS AND LOWER 20S NYC METRO. COULD GET
INTO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF
LONG ENOUGH.

THEREAFTER...ALL EYES ON STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUN AND INTO THE SE US SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER NW REGARDING A STORM THAT IS PROGGED TO
EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING MONDAY. AS THE STORM HEADS TO
THE NORTH...AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BECOMES STRONGLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED BEFORE A 500 MB LOW CLOSES SOUTH OF US AT SOME POINT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD DRAW THE STORM CLOSER TOWARDS
IT...EFFECTIVELY SLOWING DOWN ITS PROGRESS TO THE NE IN SPITE OF A
BLOCKING LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVING AWAY.

HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF
AND DEEPENING OF THE STORM...MESOSCALE BANDING BECOMES MORE LIKELY
AS WELL...BUT IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE
WHERE IT WOULD SET UP. BUT BASED THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
DEFORMATION THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING...BANDED PCPN WOULD MOVE AT
LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA...PERHAPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. PCPN TYPE LOOKS LIKE TO BE ALL SNOW. RIGHT NOW ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT WARM AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO THIS SYSTEM AND
CAUSES MIXED PCPN TYPES FOR EASTERN SECTIONS. SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE
THE NW TREND OF THE STORM`S TRACK...PCPN TYPE ISSUES COULD BE A
BIGGER CONCERN. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT A COLD AIR MASS WILL
ALREADY BE IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING THROUGH SE CANADA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PROMOTING PCPN TYPE OF SNOW.

DID NOT WANT TO TREND UPWARD TOO MUCH REGARDING POPS AND TOO HIGH
WITH QPF/SNOW TOTALS AT THIS POINT AS LIKELY POPS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FORECAST UNTIL THE 5TH PERIOD...BUT WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO
RFC AND WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FROM THE
HIGH QPF OUTPUT FROM ECMWF AND NAM...AND THE OTHER MODELS THAT DO
NOT SHOW AS MUCH. BUT BASED ON THE NW TREND OF THE STORM...DID
MAKE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY WEST OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT. FORECAST WINDS DURING THIS STORM COULD BE ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW...THINKING IS THAT EASTERN
AND OTHER COASTAL SECTIONS HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH. TOO EARLY FOR ANY HEADLINES REGARDING THE SNOW AND
WIND POTENTIAL...BUT WILL ADDRESS AT LEAST THE SNOW ASPECT IN THE
HWO AS WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA
IS INCREASING IN LIKELIHOOD.

BEHIND THE STORM...DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A
WEAKER LOW AFFECTS US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CAPPED POPS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW...WITH PCPN MORE LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT MIXED PCPN
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
     HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE NIGHT...SEE OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS...

LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND
HEAD NORTHEAST...MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS EVENING.

LIGHT PRECIP WITH IFR CONDS PERSIST OUT EAST...WHILE CONDS HAVE
IMPROVED TO MVFR AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. HI-RES MODELS FORECAST
A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIX TO DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA FROM 20Z-22Z AND MOVE EAST INTO THIS EVENING...THAT COULD BRING
IFR CONDS AS LEAVE A COATING OF ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS. AFTER THIS
PASSES...EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...IN NYC METRO AROUND
00Z-01Z...AND AN HR OR TWO LATER FARTHER EAST.

WINDS IN NYC METRO AREA ALREADY BEGINNING TO BACK/SHIFT NW...AND
SHOULD DO SO ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING. AFTER PRECIP ENDS...WINDS
SHOULD SHIFTING WNW ON OR JUST LEFT OF 300 TRUE...AND INCREASE TO
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 20 KT. THESE WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO JUST UNDER 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT... THEN RAMP UP AGAIN BY
13Z-14Z SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. W WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20
KT...DIMINISHING LATE.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON-MON EVENING...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW. E-NE WINDS
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT.
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDS IN SNOW. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW WITH NE-N WINDS G35-45 KT...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE AFTERNOON.
.WED...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT.
.THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST WATERS THROUGH
SUN AFT...WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MARGINAL GALE GUSTS STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS
BETWEEN MORICHES INLET AND MONTAUK POINT THIS EVENING. SEAS 7 TO
10 FT ONT HE OCEAN WATERS.

NLY WINDS BECOME NW TONIGHT AND THEN WEST ON SUN AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NE INTO FROM JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVE TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUN. WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
BELOW SCA SUN AFT INTO EVE...AND SEAS SUN NIGHT.

WINDS INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A STRONG STORM FORECAST
TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL PROBABLY NEED A GALE WATCH...AND
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WILL ADDRESS GALE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. WINDS AND SEAS
THEN DIMINISH WEDS AND THURS AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA
AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT THIS
EVENING OVER LI/CT...HIGHEST EAST. THIS SHOULD FALL MAINLY AS
SNOW.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS ANYWHERE FROM AS LITTLE AS AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TO A LITTLE OVER AN INCH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STORM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. PRECIP TYPE HOWEVER DOES APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY ALL
SNOW...REDUCING ADVERSE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS DURING THE STORM.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE AMOUNTS.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A POTENTIAL INTENSE COASTAL STORM COULD BRING MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ078>081-177-179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ068-
     070>075-176-178.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV






000
FXUS61 KOKX 242145
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
445 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO CAPE COD THIS EVENING
AND THEN UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE THEN APPROACHES MONDAY
AND PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE CONTINUING NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER
SYSTEM THEN PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
***BRIEF SNOW BAND LI/CT EARLY...THEN BLACK ICE DEVELOPING
 TONIGHT***

LOW PRESSURE...SE OF MONTAUK POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO E OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING.

IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING NORTHERN AND THEN SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY...OPERATIONAL AND HIGH RES MODELS STILL SIGNALING A
DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 19Z
AND 21Z...AND SLOWLY TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 TENTHS OF QPF POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND...MAINLY
EAST OF THE HUDSON...AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS SE CT/E LI.

THERMAL PROFILES AND DYNAMIC COOLING WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRANSITION
ANY LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW COULD BE
BRIEFLY MODERATE TO HEAVY WITH THIS BAND ACROSS LI/CT.

SO AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO 1 INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR NYC METRO
AND EASTERN LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. COATING TO 2 INCH POTENTIAL
ACROSS LI/CT. A WORST CASE OF AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT. LOW PROB FOR THIS WORST CASE THREAT TO EXTEND DOWN TO
LI.

THE SNOW BAND WILL MOVE EAST FROM W TO E LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING.

ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN DROPPED WEST OF THE HUDSON BASED ON
ABOVE...AND MAY BE ABLE TO DROP NYC/EASTERN HUDSON AT 4 PM BASED
ON BANDING DEVELOPMENT. ADVISORIES FARTHER EAST WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENDED TILL 00Z.

TEMPS WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY OF SLOWLY RISE INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 30S TODAY.

SNOW ENDS AFTER 00Z ACROSS FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
INLAND....AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S CITY/COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...WITH WEAKENING POLAR FRONT APPROACHING SUNDAY MORNING.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS DRY...WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATO-CU.

BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS SUNDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST SUN NIGHT WITH POLAR HIGH SLIDING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS AND LOWER 20S NYC METRO. COULD GET
INTO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF
LONG ENOUGH.

THEREAFTER...ALL EYES ON STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUN AND INTO THE SE US SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER NW REGARDING A STORM THAT IS PROGGED TO
EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING MONDAY. AS THE STORM HEADS TO
THE NORTH...AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BECOMES STRONGLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED BEFORE A 500 MB LOW CLOSES SOUTH OF US AT SOME POINT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD DRAW THE STORM CLOSER TOWARDS
IT...EFFECTIVELY SLOWING DOWN ITS PROGRESS TO THE NE IN SPITE OF A
BLOCKING LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVING AWAY.

HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF
AND DEEPENING OF THE STORM...MESOSCALE BANDING BECOMES MORE LIKELY
AS WELL...BUT IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE
WHERE IT WOULD SET UP. BUT BASED THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
DEFORMATION THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING...BANDED PCPN WOULD MOVE AT
LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA...PERHAPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. PCPN TYPE LOOKS LIKE TO BE ALL SNOW. RIGHT NOW ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT WARM AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO THIS SYSTEM AND
CAUSES MIXED PCPN TYPES FOR EASTERN SECTIONS. SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE
THE NW TREND OF THE STORM`S TRACK...PCPN TYPE ISSUES COULD BE A
BIGGER CONCERN. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT A COLD AIR MASS WILL
ALREADY BE IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING THROUGH SE CANADA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PROMOTING PCPN TYPE OF SNOW.

DID NOT WANT TO TREND UPWARD TOO MUCH REGARDING POPS AND TOO HIGH
WITH QPF/SNOW TOTALS AT THIS POINT AS LIKELY POPS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FORECAST UNTIL THE 5TH PERIOD...BUT WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO
RFC AND WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FROM THE
HIGH QPF OUTPUT FROM ECMWF AND NAM...AND THE OTHER MODELS THAT DO
NOT SHOW AS MUCH. BUT BASED ON THE NW TREND OF THE STORM...DID
MAKE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY WEST OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT. FORECAST WINDS DURING THIS STORM COULD BE ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW...THINKING IS THAT EASTERN
AND OTHER COASTAL SECTIONS HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH. TOO EARLY FOR ANY HEADLINES REGARDING THE SNOW AND
WIND POTENTIAL...BUT WILL ADDRESS AT LEAST THE SNOW ASPECT IN THE
HWO AS WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA
IS INCREASING IN LIKELIHOOD.

BEHIND THE STORM...DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A
WEAKER LOW AFFECTS US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CAPPED POPS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW...WITH PCPN MORE LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT MIXED PCPN
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
     HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE NIGHT...SEE OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS...

LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND
HEAD NORTHEAST...MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS EVENING.

LIGHT PRECIP WITH IFR CONDS PERSIST OUT EAST...WHILE CONDS HAVE
IMPROVED TO MVFR AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. HI-RES MODELS FORECAST
A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIX TO DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA FROM 20Z-22Z AND MOVE EAST INTO THIS EVENING...THAT COULD BRING
IFR CONDS AS LEAVE A COATING OF ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS. AFTER THIS
PASSES...EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...IN NYC METRO AROUND
00Z-01Z...AND AN HR OR TWO LATER FARTHER EAST.

WINDS IN NYC METRO AREA ALREADY BEGINNING TO BACK/SHIFT NW...AND
SHOULD DO SO ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING. AFTER PRECIP ENDS...WINDS
SHOULD SHIFTING WNW ON OR JUST LEFT OF 300 TRUE...AND INCREASE TO
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 20 KT. THESE WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO JUST UNDER 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT... THEN RAMP UP AGAIN BY
13Z-14Z SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. W WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20
KT...DIMINISHING LATE.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON-MON EVENING...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW. E-NE WINDS
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT.
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDS IN SNOW. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW WITH NE-N WINDS G35-45 KT...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE AFTERNOON.
.WED...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT.
.THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST WATERS THROUGH
SUN AFT...WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MARGINAL GALE GUSTS STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS
BETWEEN MORICHES INLET AND MONTAUK POINT THIS EVENING. SEAS 7 TO
10 FT ONT HE OCEAN WATERS.

NLY WINDS BECOME NW TONIGHT AND THEN WEST ON SUN AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NE INTO FROM JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVE TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUN. WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
BELOW SCA SUN AFT INTO EVE...AND SEAS SUN NIGHT.

WINDS INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A STRONG STORM FORECAST
TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL PROBABLY NEED A GALE WATCH...AND
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WILL ADDRESS GALE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. WINDS AND SEAS
THEN DIMINISH WEDS AND THURS AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA
AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT THIS
EVENING OVER LI/CT...HIGHEST EAST. THIS SHOULD FALL MAINLY AS
SNOW.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS ANYWHERE FROM AS LITTLE AS AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TO A LITTLE OVER AN INCH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STORM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. PRECIP TYPE HOWEVER DOES APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY ALL
SNOW...REDUCING ADVERSE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS DURING THE STORM.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE AMOUNTS.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A POTENTIAL INTENSE COASTAL STORM COULD BRING MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ078>081-177-179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ068-
     070>075-176-178.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV






000
FXUS61 KOKX 242145
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
445 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO CAPE COD THIS EVENING
AND THEN UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE THEN APPROACHES MONDAY
AND PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE CONTINUING NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER
SYSTEM THEN PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
***BRIEF SNOW BAND LI/CT EARLY...THEN BLACK ICE DEVELOPING
 TONIGHT***

LOW PRESSURE...SE OF MONTAUK POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO E OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING.

IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING NORTHERN AND THEN SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY...OPERATIONAL AND HIGH RES MODELS STILL SIGNALING A
DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 19Z
AND 21Z...AND SLOWLY TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 TENTHS OF QPF POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND...MAINLY
EAST OF THE HUDSON...AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS SE CT/E LI.

THERMAL PROFILES AND DYNAMIC COOLING WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRANSITION
ANY LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW COULD BE
BRIEFLY MODERATE TO HEAVY WITH THIS BAND ACROSS LI/CT.

SO AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO 1 INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR NYC METRO
AND EASTERN LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. COATING TO 2 INCH POTENTIAL
ACROSS LI/CT. A WORST CASE OF AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT. LOW PROB FOR THIS WORST CASE THREAT TO EXTEND DOWN TO
LI.

THE SNOW BAND WILL MOVE EAST FROM W TO E LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING.

ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN DROPPED WEST OF THE HUDSON BASED ON
ABOVE...AND MAY BE ABLE TO DROP NYC/EASTERN HUDSON AT 4 PM BASED
ON BANDING DEVELOPMENT. ADVISORIES FARTHER EAST WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENDED TILL 00Z.

TEMPS WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY OF SLOWLY RISE INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 30S TODAY.

SNOW ENDS AFTER 00Z ACROSS FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
INLAND....AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S CITY/COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...WITH WEAKENING POLAR FRONT APPROACHING SUNDAY MORNING.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS DRY...WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATO-CU.

BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS SUNDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST SUN NIGHT WITH POLAR HIGH SLIDING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS AND LOWER 20S NYC METRO. COULD GET
INTO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF
LONG ENOUGH.

THEREAFTER...ALL EYES ON STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUN AND INTO THE SE US SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER NW REGARDING A STORM THAT IS PROGGED TO
EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING MONDAY. AS THE STORM HEADS TO
THE NORTH...AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BECOMES STRONGLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED BEFORE A 500 MB LOW CLOSES SOUTH OF US AT SOME POINT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD DRAW THE STORM CLOSER TOWARDS
IT...EFFECTIVELY SLOWING DOWN ITS PROGRESS TO THE NE IN SPITE OF A
BLOCKING LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVING AWAY.

HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF
AND DEEPENING OF THE STORM...MESOSCALE BANDING BECOMES MORE LIKELY
AS WELL...BUT IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE
WHERE IT WOULD SET UP. BUT BASED THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
DEFORMATION THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING...BANDED PCPN WOULD MOVE AT
LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA...PERHAPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. PCPN TYPE LOOKS LIKE TO BE ALL SNOW. RIGHT NOW ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT WARM AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO THIS SYSTEM AND
CAUSES MIXED PCPN TYPES FOR EASTERN SECTIONS. SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE
THE NW TREND OF THE STORM`S TRACK...PCPN TYPE ISSUES COULD BE A
BIGGER CONCERN. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT A COLD AIR MASS WILL
ALREADY BE IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING THROUGH SE CANADA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PROMOTING PCPN TYPE OF SNOW.

DID NOT WANT TO TREND UPWARD TOO MUCH REGARDING POPS AND TOO HIGH
WITH QPF/SNOW TOTALS AT THIS POINT AS LIKELY POPS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FORECAST UNTIL THE 5TH PERIOD...BUT WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO
RFC AND WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FROM THE
HIGH QPF OUTPUT FROM ECMWF AND NAM...AND THE OTHER MODELS THAT DO
NOT SHOW AS MUCH. BUT BASED ON THE NW TREND OF THE STORM...DID
MAKE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY WEST OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT. FORECAST WINDS DURING THIS STORM COULD BE ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW...THINKING IS THAT EASTERN
AND OTHER COASTAL SECTIONS HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH. TOO EARLY FOR ANY HEADLINES REGARDING THE SNOW AND
WIND POTENTIAL...BUT WILL ADDRESS AT LEAST THE SNOW ASPECT IN THE
HWO AS WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA
IS INCREASING IN LIKELIHOOD.

BEHIND THE STORM...DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A
WEAKER LOW AFFECTS US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CAPPED POPS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW...WITH PCPN MORE LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT MIXED PCPN
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
     HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE NIGHT...SEE OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS...

LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND
HEAD NORTHEAST...MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS EVENING.

LIGHT PRECIP WITH IFR CONDS PERSIST OUT EAST...WHILE CONDS HAVE
IMPROVED TO MVFR AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. HI-RES MODELS FORECAST
A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIX TO DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA FROM 20Z-22Z AND MOVE EAST INTO THIS EVENING...THAT COULD BRING
IFR CONDS AS LEAVE A COATING OF ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS. AFTER THIS
PASSES...EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...IN NYC METRO AROUND
00Z-01Z...AND AN HR OR TWO LATER FARTHER EAST.

WINDS IN NYC METRO AREA ALREADY BEGINNING TO BACK/SHIFT NW...AND
SHOULD DO SO ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING. AFTER PRECIP ENDS...WINDS
SHOULD SHIFTING WNW ON OR JUST LEFT OF 300 TRUE...AND INCREASE TO
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 20 KT. THESE WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO JUST UNDER 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT... THEN RAMP UP AGAIN BY
13Z-14Z SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. W WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20
KT...DIMINISHING LATE.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON-MON EVENING...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW. E-NE WINDS
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT.
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDS IN SNOW. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW WITH NE-N WINDS G35-45 KT...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE AFTERNOON.
.WED...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT.
.THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST WATERS THROUGH
SUN AFT...WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MARGINAL GALE GUSTS STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS
BETWEEN MORICHES INLET AND MONTAUK POINT THIS EVENING. SEAS 7 TO
10 FT ONT HE OCEAN WATERS.

NLY WINDS BECOME NW TONIGHT AND THEN WEST ON SUN AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NE INTO FROM JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVE TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUN. WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
BELOW SCA SUN AFT INTO EVE...AND SEAS SUN NIGHT.

WINDS INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A STRONG STORM FORECAST
TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL PROBABLY NEED A GALE WATCH...AND
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WILL ADDRESS GALE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. WINDS AND SEAS
THEN DIMINISH WEDS AND THURS AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA
AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT THIS
EVENING OVER LI/CT...HIGHEST EAST. THIS SHOULD FALL MAINLY AS
SNOW.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS ANYWHERE FROM AS LITTLE AS AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TO A LITTLE OVER AN INCH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STORM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. PRECIP TYPE HOWEVER DOES APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY ALL
SNOW...REDUCING ADVERSE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS DURING THE STORM.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE AMOUNTS.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A POTENTIAL INTENSE COASTAL STORM COULD BRING MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ078>081-177-179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ068-
     070>075-176-178.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV






000
FXUS61 KOKX 242145
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
445 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO CAPE COD THIS EVENING
AND THEN UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE THEN APPROACHES MONDAY
AND PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE CONTINUING NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER
SYSTEM THEN PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
***BRIEF SNOW BAND LI/CT EARLY...THEN BLACK ICE DEVELOPING
 TONIGHT***

LOW PRESSURE...SE OF MONTAUK POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO E OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING.

IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING NORTHERN AND THEN SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY...OPERATIONAL AND HIGH RES MODELS STILL SIGNALING A
DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 19Z
AND 21Z...AND SLOWLY TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 TENTHS OF QPF POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND...MAINLY
EAST OF THE HUDSON...AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS SE CT/E LI.

THERMAL PROFILES AND DYNAMIC COOLING WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRANSITION
ANY LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW COULD BE
BRIEFLY MODERATE TO HEAVY WITH THIS BAND ACROSS LI/CT.

SO AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO 1 INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR NYC METRO
AND EASTERN LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. COATING TO 2 INCH POTENTIAL
ACROSS LI/CT. A WORST CASE OF AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT. LOW PROB FOR THIS WORST CASE THREAT TO EXTEND DOWN TO
LI.

THE SNOW BAND WILL MOVE EAST FROM W TO E LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING.

ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN DROPPED WEST OF THE HUDSON BASED ON
ABOVE...AND MAY BE ABLE TO DROP NYC/EASTERN HUDSON AT 4 PM BASED
ON BANDING DEVELOPMENT. ADVISORIES FARTHER EAST WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENDED TILL 00Z.

TEMPS WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY OF SLOWLY RISE INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 30S TODAY.

SNOW ENDS AFTER 00Z ACROSS FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
INLAND....AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S CITY/COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...WITH WEAKENING POLAR FRONT APPROACHING SUNDAY MORNING.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS DRY...WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATO-CU.

BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS SUNDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST SUN NIGHT WITH POLAR HIGH SLIDING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS AND LOWER 20S NYC METRO. COULD GET
INTO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF
LONG ENOUGH.

THEREAFTER...ALL EYES ON STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUN AND INTO THE SE US SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER NW REGARDING A STORM THAT IS PROGGED TO
EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING MONDAY. AS THE STORM HEADS TO
THE NORTH...AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BECOMES STRONGLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED BEFORE A 500 MB LOW CLOSES SOUTH OF US AT SOME POINT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD DRAW THE STORM CLOSER TOWARDS
IT...EFFECTIVELY SLOWING DOWN ITS PROGRESS TO THE NE IN SPITE OF A
BLOCKING LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVING AWAY.

HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF
AND DEEPENING OF THE STORM...MESOSCALE BANDING BECOMES MORE LIKELY
AS WELL...BUT IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE
WHERE IT WOULD SET UP. BUT BASED THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
DEFORMATION THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING...BANDED PCPN WOULD MOVE AT
LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA...PERHAPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. PCPN TYPE LOOKS LIKE TO BE ALL SNOW. RIGHT NOW ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT WARM AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO THIS SYSTEM AND
CAUSES MIXED PCPN TYPES FOR EASTERN SECTIONS. SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE
THE NW TREND OF THE STORM`S TRACK...PCPN TYPE ISSUES COULD BE A
BIGGER CONCERN. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT A COLD AIR MASS WILL
ALREADY BE IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING THROUGH SE CANADA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PROMOTING PCPN TYPE OF SNOW.

DID NOT WANT TO TREND UPWARD TOO MUCH REGARDING POPS AND TOO HIGH
WITH QPF/SNOW TOTALS AT THIS POINT AS LIKELY POPS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FORECAST UNTIL THE 5TH PERIOD...BUT WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO
RFC AND WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FROM THE
HIGH QPF OUTPUT FROM ECMWF AND NAM...AND THE OTHER MODELS THAT DO
NOT SHOW AS MUCH. BUT BASED ON THE NW TREND OF THE STORM...DID
MAKE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY WEST OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT. FORECAST WINDS DURING THIS STORM COULD BE ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW...THINKING IS THAT EASTERN
AND OTHER COASTAL SECTIONS HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH. TOO EARLY FOR ANY HEADLINES REGARDING THE SNOW AND
WIND POTENTIAL...BUT WILL ADDRESS AT LEAST THE SNOW ASPECT IN THE
HWO AS WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA
IS INCREASING IN LIKELIHOOD.

BEHIND THE STORM...DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A
WEAKER LOW AFFECTS US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CAPPED POPS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW...WITH PCPN MORE LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT MIXED PCPN
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
     HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE NIGHT...SEE OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS...

LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND
HEAD NORTHEAST...MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS EVENING.

LIGHT PRECIP WITH IFR CONDS PERSIST OUT EAST...WHILE CONDS HAVE
IMPROVED TO MVFR AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. HI-RES MODELS FORECAST
A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIX TO DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA FROM 20Z-22Z AND MOVE EAST INTO THIS EVENING...THAT COULD BRING
IFR CONDS AS LEAVE A COATING OF ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS. AFTER THIS
PASSES...EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...IN NYC METRO AROUND
00Z-01Z...AND AN HR OR TWO LATER FARTHER EAST.

WINDS IN NYC METRO AREA ALREADY BEGINNING TO BACK/SHIFT NW...AND
SHOULD DO SO ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING. AFTER PRECIP ENDS...WINDS
SHOULD SHIFTING WNW ON OR JUST LEFT OF 300 TRUE...AND INCREASE TO
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 20 KT. THESE WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO JUST UNDER 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT... THEN RAMP UP AGAIN BY
13Z-14Z SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. W WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20
KT...DIMINISHING LATE.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON-MON EVENING...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW. E-NE WINDS
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT.
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDS IN SNOW. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW WITH NE-N WINDS G35-45 KT...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE AFTERNOON.
.WED...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT.
.THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST WATERS THROUGH
SUN AFT...WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MARGINAL GALE GUSTS STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS
BETWEEN MORICHES INLET AND MONTAUK POINT THIS EVENING. SEAS 7 TO
10 FT ONT HE OCEAN WATERS.

NLY WINDS BECOME NW TONIGHT AND THEN WEST ON SUN AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NE INTO FROM JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVE TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUN. WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
BELOW SCA SUN AFT INTO EVE...AND SEAS SUN NIGHT.

WINDS INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A STRONG STORM FORECAST
TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL PROBABLY NEED A GALE WATCH...AND
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WILL ADDRESS GALE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. WINDS AND SEAS
THEN DIMINISH WEDS AND THURS AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA
AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT THIS
EVENING OVER LI/CT...HIGHEST EAST. THIS SHOULD FALL MAINLY AS
SNOW.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS ANYWHERE FROM AS LITTLE AS AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TO A LITTLE OVER AN INCH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STORM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. PRECIP TYPE HOWEVER DOES APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY ALL
SNOW...REDUCING ADVERSE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS DURING THE STORM.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE AMOUNTS.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A POTENTIAL INTENSE COASTAL STORM COULD BRING MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ078>081-177-179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ068-
     070>075-176-178.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV






000
FXUS61 KOKX 242124
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
424 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO CAPE COD THIS EVENING
AND THEN UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE THEN APPROACHES MONDAY
AND PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE CONTINUING NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER
SYSTEM THEN PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
***BRIEF SNOW BAND LI/CT EARLY...THEN BLACK ICE DEVELOPING
 TONIGHT***

LOW PRESSURE...SE OF MONTAUK POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO E OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING.

IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING NORTHERN AND THEN SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY...OPERATIONAL AND HIGH RES MODELS STILL SIGNALING A
DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 19Z
AND 21Z...AND SLOWLY TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 TENTHS OF QPF POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND...MAINLY
EAST OF THE HUDSON...AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS SE CT/E LI.

THERMAL PROFILES AND DYNAMIC COOLING WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRANSITION
ANY LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW COULD BE
BRIEFLY MODERATE TO HEAVY WITH THIS BAND ACROSS LI/CT.

SO AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO 1 INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR NYC METRO
AND EASTERN LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. COATING TO 2 INCH POTENTIAL
ACROSS LI/CT. A WORST CASE OF AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT. LOW PROB FOR THIS WORST CASE THREAT TO EXTEND DOWN TO
LI.

THE SNOW BAND WILL MOVE EAST FROM W TO E LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING.

ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN DROPPED WEST OF THE HUDSON BASED ON
ABOVE...AND MAY BE ABLE TO DROP NYC/EASTERN HUDSON AT 4 PM BASED
ON BANDING DEVELOPMENT. ADVISORIES FARTHER EAST WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENDED TILL 00Z.

TEMPS WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY OF SLOWLY RISE INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 30S TODAY.

SNOW ENDS AFTER 00Z ACROSS FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
INLAND....AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S CITY/COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...WITH WEAKENING POLAR FRONT APPROACHING SUNDAY MORNING.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS DRY...WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATO-CU.

BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS SUNDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST SUN NIGHT WITH POLAR HIGH SLIDING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS AND LOWER 20S NYC METRO. COULD GET
INTO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF
LONG ENOUGH.

THEREAFTER...ALL EYES ON STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUN AND INTO THE SE US SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER NW REGARDING A STORM THAT IS PROGGED TO
EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING MONDAY. AS THE STORM HEADS TO
THE NORTH...AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BECOMES STRONGLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED BEFORE A 500 MB LOW CLOSES SOUTH OF US AT SOME POINT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD DRAW THE STORM CLOSER TOWARDS
IT...EFFECTIVELY SLOWING DOWN ITS PROGRESS TO THE NE IN SPITE OF A
BLOCKING LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVING AWAY.

HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF
AND DEEPENING OF THE STORM...MESOSCALE BANDING BECOMES MORE LIKELY
AS WELL...BUT IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE
WHERE IT WOULD SET UP. BUT BASED THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
DEFORMATION THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING...BANDED PCPN WOULD MOVE AT
LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA...PERHAPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. PCPN TYPE LOOKS LIKE TO BE ALL SNOW. RIGHT NOW ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT WARM AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO THIS SYSTEM AND
CAUSES MIXED PCPN TYPES FOR EASTERN SECTIONS. SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE
THE NW TREND OF THE STORM`S TRACK...PCPN TYPE ISSUES COULD BE A
BIGGER CONCERN. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT A COLD AIR MASS WILL
ALREADY BE IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING THROUGH SE CANADA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PROMOTING PCPN TYPE OF SNOW.

DID NOT WANT TO TREND UPWARD TOO MUCH REGARDING POPS AND TO TOO HIGH
WITH QPF/SNOW TOTALS AT THIS POINT AS LIKELY POPS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
FORECAST UNTIL THE 5TH PERIOD...BUT WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO RFC AND WPC
GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FROM THE HIGH QPF
OUTPUT FROM ECMWF AND NAM...AND THE OTHER MODELS THAT DO NOT SHOW AS
MUCH. BUT BASED ON THE NW TREND OF THE STORM...DID MAKE SOME UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY WEST OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. FORECAST
WINDS DURING THIS STORM COULD BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW...THINKING IS THAT EASTERN AND OTHER COASTAL
SECTIONS HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. TOO EARLY
FOR ANY HEADLINES REGARDING THE SNOW AND WIND POTENTIAL...BUT WILL
ADDRESS AT LEAST THE SNOW ASPECT IN THE HWO AS WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA IS INCREASING IN
LIKELIHOOD.

BEHIND THE STORM...DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A
WEAKER LOW AFFECTS US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CAPPED POPS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW...WITH PCPN MORE LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT MIXED PCPN
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
...HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE NIGHT...SEE OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS...

LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND
HEAD NORTHEAST...MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS EVENING.

LIGHT PRECIP WITH IFR CONDS PERSIST OUT EAST...WHILE CONDS HAVE
IMPROVED TO MVFR AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. HI-RES MODELS FORECAST
A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIX TO DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA FROM 20Z-22Z AND MOVE EAST INTO THIS EVENING...THAT COULD BRING
IFR CONDS AS LEAVE A COATING OF ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS. AFTER THIS
PASSES...EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...IN NYC METRO AROUND
00Z-01Z...AND AN HR OR TWO LATER FARTHER EAST.

WINDS IN NYC METRO AREA ALREADY BEGINNING TO BACK/SHIFT NW...AND
SHOULD DO SO ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING. AFTER PRECIP ENDS...WINDS
SHOULD SHIFTING WNW ON OR JUST LEFT OF 300 TRUE...AND INCREASE TO
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 20 KT. THESE WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO JUST UNDER 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT... THEN RAMP UP AGAIN BY
13Z-14Z SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. W WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20
KT...DIMINISHING LATE.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON-MON EVENING...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW. E-NE WINDS
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT.
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDS IN SNOW. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW WITH NE-N WINDS G35-45 KT...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE AFTERNOON.
.WED...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT.
.THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST WATERS THROUGH
SUN AFT...WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MARGINAL GALE GUSTS STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS
BETWEEN MORICHES INLET AND MONTAUK POINT THIS EVENING. SEAS 7 TO
10 FT ONT HE OCEAN WATERS.

NLY WINDS BECOME NW TONIGHT AND THEN WEST ON SUN AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NE INTO FROM JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVE TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUN. WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
BELOW SCA SUN AFT INTO EVE...AND SEAS SUN NIGHT.

WINDS INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A STRONG STORM FORECAST
TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL PROBABLY NEED A GALE WATCH...AND
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WILL ADDRESS GALE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. WINDS AND SEAS
THEN DIMINISH WEDS AND THURS AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA
AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT THIS
EVENING OVER LI/CT...HIGHEST EAST. THIS SHOULD FALL MAINLY AS
SNOW.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS ANYWHERE FROM AS LITTLE AS AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TO A LITTLE OVER AN INCH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STORM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. PRECIP TYPE HOWEVER DOES APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY ALL
SNOW...REDUCING ADVERSE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS DURING THE STORM.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE AMOUNTS.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES AND COASTAL FLOODING...
A POTENTIAL INTENSE COASTAL STORM COULD BRING MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ078>081-177-179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ068-
     070>075-176-178.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV






000
FXUS61 KOKX 242124
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
424 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO CAPE COD THIS EVENING
AND THEN UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE THEN APPROACHES MONDAY
AND PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE CONTINUING NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER
SYSTEM THEN PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
***BRIEF SNOW BAND LI/CT EARLY...THEN BLACK ICE DEVELOPING
 TONIGHT***

LOW PRESSURE...SE OF MONTAUK POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO E OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING.

IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING NORTHERN AND THEN SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY...OPERATIONAL AND HIGH RES MODELS STILL SIGNALING A
DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 19Z
AND 21Z...AND SLOWLY TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 TENTHS OF QPF POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND...MAINLY
EAST OF THE HUDSON...AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS SE CT/E LI.

THERMAL PROFILES AND DYNAMIC COOLING WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRANSITION
ANY LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW COULD BE
BRIEFLY MODERATE TO HEAVY WITH THIS BAND ACROSS LI/CT.

SO AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO 1 INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR NYC METRO
AND EASTERN LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. COATING TO 2 INCH POTENTIAL
ACROSS LI/CT. A WORST CASE OF AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT. LOW PROB FOR THIS WORST CASE THREAT TO EXTEND DOWN TO
LI.

THE SNOW BAND WILL MOVE EAST FROM W TO E LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING.

ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN DROPPED WEST OF THE HUDSON BASED ON
ABOVE...AND MAY BE ABLE TO DROP NYC/EASTERN HUDSON AT 4 PM BASED
ON BANDING DEVELOPMENT. ADVISORIES FARTHER EAST WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENDED TILL 00Z.

TEMPS WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY OF SLOWLY RISE INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 30S TODAY.

SNOW ENDS AFTER 00Z ACROSS FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
INLAND....AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S CITY/COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...WITH WEAKENING POLAR FRONT APPROACHING SUNDAY MORNING.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS DRY...WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATO-CU.

BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS SUNDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST SUN NIGHT WITH POLAR HIGH SLIDING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS AND LOWER 20S NYC METRO. COULD GET
INTO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF
LONG ENOUGH.

THEREAFTER...ALL EYES ON STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUN AND INTO THE SE US SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER NW REGARDING A STORM THAT IS PROGGED TO
EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING MONDAY. AS THE STORM HEADS TO
THE NORTH...AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BECOMES STRONGLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED BEFORE A 500 MB LOW CLOSES SOUTH OF US AT SOME POINT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD DRAW THE STORM CLOSER TOWARDS
IT...EFFECTIVELY SLOWING DOWN ITS PROGRESS TO THE NE IN SPITE OF A
BLOCKING LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVING AWAY.

HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF
AND DEEPENING OF THE STORM...MESOSCALE BANDING BECOMES MORE LIKELY
AS WELL...BUT IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE
WHERE IT WOULD SET UP. BUT BASED THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
DEFORMATION THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING...BANDED PCPN WOULD MOVE AT
LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA...PERHAPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. PCPN TYPE LOOKS LIKE TO BE ALL SNOW. RIGHT NOW ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT WARM AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO THIS SYSTEM AND
CAUSES MIXED PCPN TYPES FOR EASTERN SECTIONS. SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE
THE NW TREND OF THE STORM`S TRACK...PCPN TYPE ISSUES COULD BE A
BIGGER CONCERN. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT A COLD AIR MASS WILL
ALREADY BE IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING THROUGH SE CANADA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PROMOTING PCPN TYPE OF SNOW.

DID NOT WANT TO TREND UPWARD TOO MUCH REGARDING POPS AND TO TOO HIGH
WITH QPF/SNOW TOTALS AT THIS POINT AS LIKELY POPS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
FORECAST UNTIL THE 5TH PERIOD...BUT WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO RFC AND WPC
GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FROM THE HIGH QPF
OUTPUT FROM ECMWF AND NAM...AND THE OTHER MODELS THAT DO NOT SHOW AS
MUCH. BUT BASED ON THE NW TREND OF THE STORM...DID MAKE SOME UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY WEST OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. FORECAST
WINDS DURING THIS STORM COULD BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW...THINKING IS THAT EASTERN AND OTHER COASTAL
SECTIONS HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. TOO EARLY
FOR ANY HEADLINES REGARDING THE SNOW AND WIND POTENTIAL...BUT WILL
ADDRESS AT LEAST THE SNOW ASPECT IN THE HWO AS WARNING CRITERIA
SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA IS INCREASING IN
LIKELIHOOD.

BEHIND THE STORM...DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A
WEAKER LOW AFFECTS US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CAPPED POPS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW...WITH PCPN MORE LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT MIXED PCPN
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
...HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE NIGHT...SEE OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS...

LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND
HEAD NORTHEAST...MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS EVENING.

LIGHT PRECIP WITH IFR CONDS PERSIST OUT EAST...WHILE CONDS HAVE
IMPROVED TO MVFR AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. HI-RES MODELS FORECAST
A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIX TO DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA FROM 20Z-22Z AND MOVE EAST INTO THIS EVENING...THAT COULD BRING
IFR CONDS AS LEAVE A COATING OF ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS. AFTER THIS
PASSES...EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...IN NYC METRO AROUND
00Z-01Z...AND AN HR OR TWO LATER FARTHER EAST.

WINDS IN NYC METRO AREA ALREADY BEGINNING TO BACK/SHIFT NW...AND
SHOULD DO SO ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING. AFTER PRECIP ENDS...WINDS
SHOULD SHIFTING WNW ON OR JUST LEFT OF 300 TRUE...AND INCREASE TO
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 20 KT. THESE WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO JUST UNDER 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT... THEN RAMP UP AGAIN BY
13Z-14Z SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. W WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20
KT...DIMINISHING LATE.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON-MON EVENING...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW. E-NE WINDS
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT.
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDS IN SNOW. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW WITH NE-N WINDS G35-45 KT...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE AFTERNOON.
.WED...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT.
.THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST WATERS THROUGH
SUN AFT...WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MARGINAL GALE GUSTS STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS
BETWEEN MORICHES INLET AND MONTAUK POINT THIS EVENING. SEAS 7 TO
10 FT ONT HE OCEAN WATERS.

NLY WINDS BECOME NW TONIGHT AND THEN WEST ON SUN AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NE INTO FROM JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVE TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUN. WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
BELOW SCA SUN AFT INTO EVE...AND SEAS SUN NIGHT.

WINDS INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A STRONG STORM FORECAST
TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL PROBABLY NEED A GALE WATCH...AND
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WILL ADDRESS GALE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. WINDS AND SEAS
THEN DIMINISH WEDS AND THURS AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA
AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT THIS
EVENING OVER LI/CT...HIGHEST EAST. THIS SHOULD FALL MAINLY AS
SNOW.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS ANYWHERE FROM AS LITTLE AS AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TO A LITTLE OVER AN INCH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STORM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. PRECIP TYPE HOWEVER DOES APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY ALL
SNOW...REDUCING ADVERSE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS DURING THE STORM.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE AMOUNTS.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES AND COASTAL FLOODING...
A POTENTIAL INTENSE COASTAL STORM COULD BRING MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ078>081-177-179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ068-
     070>075-176-178.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 242057
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
357 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO
THE NORTH. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A POTENTIAL STRONG SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A POTENTIALLY
STRONG SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING BRINGING RAPIDLY CHANGING
COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
LOW TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. BASED ON TIMING OF THE
FRONT, IT WONT YET BE THROUGH SOUTHERN VERMONT SO THE SOUTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE MID
TO LOW 20S OVERNIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST OUR WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND SHOULD
SHIFT A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT LEADING TO A WEAKENING OF
THE CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE FRONT. THAT WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES
OF SNOW SHOWERS BUT STILL EXPECT WITH DECENT LOW TO MID MOISTURE
AND OROGRAPHIC FLOW THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  UPSTREAM OBS HAVE BEEN
REPORTING SOME FREEZING RAIN AND WHEN THE PRECIP BEGINS TO FALL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WILL START INITIALLY
UNSATURATED BEFORE BECOMING SATURATED AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SURGE OF COLD AIR
AND LEAVE THE AREA LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS ON
SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MONDAY THE BROAD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION SO MONDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER QUITE COLD DAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY MONDAY NIGHT A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A STRONG COASTAL STORM OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS VERY GOOD
CONSENSUS AMONG MEDIUM RANGED MODELS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
AND TRACK JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHICH MEANS THAT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP LOOKS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHERE SOME OF
THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW. AT THIS POINT WITH THE VARIABLE
NATURE OF THE TRACK AND THE FACT THAT AS OF YESTERDAY THE ECWMF
WAS THE ONLY LONG RANGE MODEL WITH THE SYSTEM I`VE BEEN HESITANT
TO ADD IN FINE SCALE DETAILS TO THE FORECAST CONCERNING SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EST SATURDAY...QUITE A CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...AS
ECMWF...GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE AREA BOMBING
OUT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. MODELS SPREAD SNOW FURTHER
WEST INTO VERMONT AND INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. ECMWF APPEARS
TO BE THE OUTLIER ON TUESDAY AS IT HAS THE LOW WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE BENCHMARK AT 18Z TUESDAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK BY 18Z TUESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE
LOW. HAVE OPTED TO GO HIGHER THAN THE SUPER-BLEND POPS ON TUESDAY
AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL OF VERMONT AND THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK.

MODELS SHOW SNOW WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW STARTS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. HOWEVER...HAVE STILL GONE HIGHER
THAN SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON FRIDAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR MVFR CEILINGS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LOWER LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM CANADA. EXPECTING
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FROM 04Z-12Z SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FROM
07Z-14Z SUNDAY ACROSS VERMONT. EXPECTING SURFACE WIND GUSTS FROM
THE NORTHWEST AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS FROM 06Z-14Z SUNDAY THROUGH
18Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...DEVELOPING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WGH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 242057
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
357 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO
THE NORTH. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A POTENTIAL STRONG SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A POTENTIALLY
STRONG SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING BRINGING RAPIDLY CHANGING
COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
LOW TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. BASED ON TIMING OF THE
FRONT, IT WONT YET BE THROUGH SOUTHERN VERMONT SO THE SOUTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE MID
TO LOW 20S OVERNIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST OUR WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND SHOULD
SHIFT A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT LEADING TO A WEAKENING OF
THE CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE FRONT. THAT WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES
OF SNOW SHOWERS BUT STILL EXPECT WITH DECENT LOW TO MID MOISTURE
AND OROGRAPHIC FLOW THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  UPSTREAM OBS HAVE BEEN
REPORTING SOME FREEZING RAIN AND WHEN THE PRECIP BEGINS TO FALL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WILL START INITIALLY
UNSATURATED BEFORE BECOMING SATURATED AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SURGE OF COLD AIR
AND LEAVE THE AREA LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS ON
SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MONDAY THE BROAD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION SO MONDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER QUITE COLD DAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY MONDAY NIGHT A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A STRONG COASTAL STORM OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS VERY GOOD
CONSENSUS AMONG MEDIUM RANGED MODELS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
AND TRACK JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHICH MEANS THAT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP LOOKS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHERE SOME OF
THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW. AT THIS POINT WITH THE VARIABLE
NATURE OF THE TRACK AND THE FACT THAT AS OF YESTERDAY THE ECWMF
WAS THE ONLY LONG RANGE MODEL WITH THE SYSTEM I`VE BEEN HESITANT
TO ADD IN FINE SCALE DETAILS TO THE FORECAST CONCERNING SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EST SATURDAY...QUITE A CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...AS
ECMWF...GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE AREA BOMBING
OUT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. MODELS SPREAD SNOW FURTHER
WEST INTO VERMONT AND INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. ECMWF APPEARS
TO BE THE OUTLIER ON TUESDAY AS IT HAS THE LOW WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE BENCHMARK AT 18Z TUESDAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK BY 18Z TUESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE
LOW. HAVE OPTED TO GO HIGHER THAN THE SUPER-BLEND POPS ON TUESDAY
AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL OF VERMONT AND THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK.

MODELS SHOW SNOW WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW STARTS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. HOWEVER...HAVE STILL GONE HIGHER
THAN SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON FRIDAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR MVFR CEILINGS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LOWER LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM CANADA. EXPECTING
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FROM 04Z-12Z SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FROM
07Z-14Z SUNDAY ACROSS VERMONT. EXPECTING SURFACE WIND GUSTS FROM
THE NORTHWEST AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS FROM 06Z-14Z SUNDAY THROUGH
18Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...DEVELOPING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 242041
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
341 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ARCTIC COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1220 PM EST SATURDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST AS OF THIS UPDATE. COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS A WEAK
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES AND THE
SPRINGFIELD OB IS REPORTING LIGHT SNOW SO I CONTINUED THE
INCREASE IN POPS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE 1-2 INCHES PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD WORK OUT
JUST FINE SO I LEFT THAT ALONE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA LOOK IN SHAPE TO WARM IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH BTV
ALREADY UP TO 34 AND PBG AT 32. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LEFT
ALONE AS IT IS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO CROSSES
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOME DECENT VORTICITY
ADVECTION. MINS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES HANG AROUND TWENTY AS FRONT
TAKES THE LONGEST TO REACH THERE. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THEN WIND DOWN TOWARDS MORNING. ONLY EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE AREA FROM CANADA BRINGING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. MAY
SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE DAYTIME
HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
COLDER OF THE TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE...SOME -20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EST SATURDAY...QUITE A CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...AS
ECMWF...GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE AREA BOMBING
OUT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. MODELS SPREAD SNOW FURTHER
WEST INTO VERMONT AND INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. ECMWF APPEARS
TO BE THE OUTLIER ON TUESDAY AS IT HAS THE LOW WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE BENCHMARK AT 18Z TUESDAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK BY 18Z TUESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE
LOW. HAVE OPTED TO GO HIGHER THAN THE SUPER-BLEND POPS ON TUESDAY
AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL OF VERMONT AND THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK.

MODELS SHOW SNOW WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW STARTS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. HOWEVER...HAVE STILL GONE HIGHER
THAN SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON FRIDAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.



&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR MVFR CEILINGS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LOWER LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM CANADA. EXPECTING
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FROM 04Z-12Z SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FROM
07Z-14Z SUNDAY ACROSS VERMONT. EXPECTING SURFACE WIND GUSTS FROM
THE NORTHWEST AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS FROM 06Z-14Z SUNDAY THROUGH
18Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...DEVELOPING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 242041
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
341 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ARCTIC COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1220 PM EST SATURDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST AS OF THIS UPDATE. COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS A WEAK
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES AND THE
SPRINGFIELD OB IS REPORTING LIGHT SNOW SO I CONTINUED THE
INCREASE IN POPS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE 1-2 INCHES PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD WORK OUT
JUST FINE SO I LEFT THAT ALONE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA LOOK IN SHAPE TO WARM IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH BTV
ALREADY UP TO 34 AND PBG AT 32. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LEFT
ALONE AS IT IS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO CROSSES
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOME DECENT VORTICITY
ADVECTION. MINS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES HANG AROUND TWENTY AS FRONT
TAKES THE LONGEST TO REACH THERE. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THEN WIND DOWN TOWARDS MORNING. ONLY EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE AREA FROM CANADA BRINGING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. MAY
SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE DAYTIME
HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
COLDER OF THE TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE...SOME -20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EST SATURDAY...QUITE A CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...AS
ECMWF...GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE AREA BOMBING
OUT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. MODELS SPREAD SNOW FURTHER
WEST INTO VERMONT AND INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. ECMWF APPEARS
TO BE THE OUTLIER ON TUESDAY AS IT HAS THE LOW WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE BENCHMARK AT 18Z TUESDAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK BY 18Z TUESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE
LOW. HAVE OPTED TO GO HIGHER THAN THE SUPER-BLEND POPS ON TUESDAY
AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL OF VERMONT AND THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK.

MODELS SHOW SNOW WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW STARTS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. HOWEVER...HAVE STILL GONE HIGHER
THAN SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON FRIDAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.



&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR MVFR CEILINGS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LOWER LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM CANADA. EXPECTING
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FROM 04Z-12Z SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FROM
07Z-14Z SUNDAY ACROSS VERMONT. EXPECTING SURFACE WIND GUSTS FROM
THE NORTHWEST AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS FROM 06Z-14Z SUNDAY THROUGH
18Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...DEVELOPING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WGH



000
FXUS61 KBUF 242037
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
337 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE FLURRIES AND AREAS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND CHANGE EVERYTHING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL REGION. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM ACROSS ONTARIO.
RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY WEAK RETURNS ACROSS WESTERN NY
THIS AFTERNOON...INDICATIVE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.

FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH MID EVENING AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND WEAK ASCENT BEGINS TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO DUE TO A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE OFF THE LAKES AND FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE TERRAIN JUST EAST OF THE LAKES. NAM BUFKIT
PROFILES ARE VERY CLOSE TO NOT BEING COLD ENOUGH IN THE CLOUD LAYER
TO SUPPORT ICE NUCLEI...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE CLOUD LAYER
-7C TO -8C...SO EXPECT PRECIP TYPE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNIZZLE. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED AT KBUF/KIAG AND UPSTREAM OBS ALSO SHOW SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED ON AND OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO FROM THE
EASTERN SHORES OF LAKE HURON TO THE CAPITAL CITY OF OTTAWA...AND
THIS SAME AIRMASS WILL BE OVER OUR REGION THIS EVENING. BY LATE
EVENING MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN AND CLOUD TOP TEMPS WILL COOL...
INTRODUCING ICE NUCLEI BACK INTO THE CLOUD LAYER AND ENDING THE
CHANCES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. UNTIL THEN...SOME VERY LIGHT ICING IS
POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED SURFACES. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST OF WESTERN NY AND THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION. SO FAR CEILINGS ARE HIGHER FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY INTO THE
FINGER LAKES WITH LESS CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THERE...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OVERNIGHT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS FORCING EVERYTHING TO
CHANGE BACK TO JUST SNOW. THE AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO
AROUND 7K FEET FOR A FEW HOURS. THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW OVERNIGHT
WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE LAKES FROM A COMBINATION OF WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND MORE IMPORTANTLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION. NOTE THAT EVEN THOUGH
LAKE ERIE NOW HAS PLENTY OF ICE COVER...THE EASTERN BASIN IS STILL
THIN AND SLUSHY...WHICH STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME TRANSFER OF SENSIBLE
AND LATENT HEAT TO THE ATMOSPHERE.

BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD PUSH A BROKEN BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH AND ONSHORE ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DUSTING TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION IN SOME
AREAS. SUNDAY MORNING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL QUICKLY
DROP AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT...FORCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE TO WEAKEN TO FLURRIES BY LATE MORNING. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH...
MAINLY FROM THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA INTO THE FINGER LAKES.

BY AFTERNOON EVEN THE FLURRIES SHOULD END AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
CRASH. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO ERODE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH NO OFF-LAKE FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID
20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL DROP SHARPLY LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND NOT BOTTOM OUT UNTIL MID TO LATE
MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAVE TEMPS IN THE TEENS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CUT SOUTH OF NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SHIELDS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM ITS IMPACTS. COLD AIR BROUGHT SOUTH BY THE ARCTIC HIGH
WILL ENSURE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND WELL BELOW ZERO EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 5 KNOTS IN THE NORTH COUNTY WILL
PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES WITH THE BITTERLY
COLD TEMPS.

ON MONDAY THE CLIPPER WILL SHIFT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND BEGIN TO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THIS COASTAL STORM ACROSS
PA/NY AND BENEATH A NEGATIVELY TILTING 500MB TROUGH. VERTICAL
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW PLENTIFUL MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW
PUSHING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER
LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
INTERSECTING THE FAVORED DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION. THESE
REGIONS COULD PICK UP 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SNOW
RATIOS.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER MOISTURE PROFILES
ARE QUITE A BIT THINNER AND DISPLACED BENEATH THE FAVORED DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH REGION. THIS SET UP MAY BRING A RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
RATHER THAN SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN -10C WITHIN THE CLOUD
LAYER MAY ONLY SUPPORT SUPER-COOLED DROPLETS. HAVE INCLUDED SNOW AS
A P-TYPE FOR NOW WITH JUST A MENTION OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HERE IN
THE DISCUSSION BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSER AS WE ROLL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL STORM WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A NORTH
WIND AND SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL LEAVE A
DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
PLUMMETING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS LOOK TO REACH BELOW ZERO
AGAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT DRIFT ACROSS NEW
YORK ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR REGION IS NOW
FORECAST TO CUT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS
MODELS SHOWING A TRACK TO OUR NORTH. THIS SOUTHERN TRACK ALONG WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE PICKED UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HAS BROUGHT AND
INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY. SNOW MAY
LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AS THE LOW CUTS ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. A TRAILING SURFACE HIGH SHOWN BY THE 12Z GFS AND
ECWMF WOULD BRING A COLD BUT DRY START TO NEXT WEEKEND.

ARRIVAL OF THE THE SHARPER ARCTIC AIRMASS WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING IN
THE LONG TERM HAS NOW BEEN PUSHED BACK TIL MONDAY. THIS WOULD BE
USHERED SOUTH BY YET ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH ON
SUNDAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A VERY COLD START TO FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK OVER
MOST OF THE REGION AND EXTENDING BACK UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR
AND IFR WITHIN THE STRATUS DECK...WITH IFR FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALSO EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. SCATTERED FLURRIES
WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET IN
EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST.

TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE MORE LIKELY EAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME
MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF
MVFR VSBY WITH SPOTTY IFR IN ANY SOMEWHAT MORE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL END BY MID TO LATE
EVENING AS THE AIRMASS GROWS COLDER ALOFT. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MAINLY LOW END MVFR AND IFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE COMING
UP TO MVFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE.

ON SUNDAY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN THE MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBY
BEFORE ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL RUN MVFR ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MVFR ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AND WAVES
DIMINISHING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK





000
FXUS61 KBUF 242037
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
337 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE FLURRIES AND AREAS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND CHANGE EVERYTHING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL REGION. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM ACROSS ONTARIO.
RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY WEAK RETURNS ACROSS WESTERN NY
THIS AFTERNOON...INDICATIVE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.

FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH MID EVENING AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND WEAK ASCENT BEGINS TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO DUE TO A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE OFF THE LAKES AND FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE TERRAIN JUST EAST OF THE LAKES. NAM BUFKIT
PROFILES ARE VERY CLOSE TO NOT BEING COLD ENOUGH IN THE CLOUD LAYER
TO SUPPORT ICE NUCLEI...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE CLOUD LAYER
-7C TO -8C...SO EXPECT PRECIP TYPE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNIZZLE. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED AT KBUF/KIAG AND UPSTREAM OBS ALSO SHOW SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED ON AND OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO FROM THE
EASTERN SHORES OF LAKE HURON TO THE CAPITAL CITY OF OTTAWA...AND
THIS SAME AIRMASS WILL BE OVER OUR REGION THIS EVENING. BY LATE
EVENING MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN AND CLOUD TOP TEMPS WILL COOL...
INTRODUCING ICE NUCLEI BACK INTO THE CLOUD LAYER AND ENDING THE
CHANCES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. UNTIL THEN...SOME VERY LIGHT ICING IS
POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED SURFACES. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST OF WESTERN NY AND THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION. SO FAR CEILINGS ARE HIGHER FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY INTO THE
FINGER LAKES WITH LESS CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THERE...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OVERNIGHT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS FORCING EVERYTHING TO
CHANGE BACK TO JUST SNOW. THE AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO
AROUND 7K FEET FOR A FEW HOURS. THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW OVERNIGHT
WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE LAKES FROM A COMBINATION OF WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND MORE IMPORTANTLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION. NOTE THAT EVEN THOUGH
LAKE ERIE NOW HAS PLENTY OF ICE COVER...THE EASTERN BASIN IS STILL
THIN AND SLUSHY...WHICH STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME TRANSFER OF SENSIBLE
AND LATENT HEAT TO THE ATMOSPHERE.

BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD PUSH A BROKEN BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH AND ONSHORE ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DUSTING TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION IN SOME
AREAS. SUNDAY MORNING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL QUICKLY
DROP AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT...FORCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE TO WEAKEN TO FLURRIES BY LATE MORNING. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH...
MAINLY FROM THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA INTO THE FINGER LAKES.

BY AFTERNOON EVEN THE FLURRIES SHOULD END AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
CRASH. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO ERODE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH NO OFF-LAKE FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID
20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL DROP SHARPLY LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND NOT BOTTOM OUT UNTIL MID TO LATE
MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAVE TEMPS IN THE TEENS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CUT SOUTH OF NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SHIELDS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM ITS IMPACTS. COLD AIR BROUGHT SOUTH BY THE ARCTIC HIGH
WILL ENSURE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND WELL BELOW ZERO EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 5 KNOTS IN THE NORTH COUNTY WILL
PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES WITH THE BITTERLY
COLD TEMPS.

ON MONDAY THE CLIPPER WILL SHIFT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND BEGIN TO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THIS COASTAL STORM ACROSS
PA/NY AND BENEATH A NEGATIVELY TILTING 500MB TROUGH. VERTICAL
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW PLENTIFUL MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW
PUSHING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER
LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
INTERSECTING THE FAVORED DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION. THESE
REGIONS COULD PICK UP 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SNOW
RATIOS.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER MOISTURE PROFILES
ARE QUITE A BIT THINNER AND DISPLACED BENEATH THE FAVORED DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH REGION. THIS SET UP MAY BRING A RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
RATHER THAN SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN -10C WITHIN THE CLOUD
LAYER MAY ONLY SUPPORT SUPER-COOLED DROPLETS. HAVE INCLUDED SNOW AS
A P-TYPE FOR NOW WITH JUST A MENTION OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HERE IN
THE DISCUSSION BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSER AS WE ROLL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL STORM WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A NORTH
WIND AND SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL LEAVE A
DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
PLUMMETING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS LOOK TO REACH BELOW ZERO
AGAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT DRIFT ACROSS NEW
YORK ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR REGION IS NOW
FORECAST TO CUT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS
MODELS SHOWING A TRACK TO OUR NORTH. THIS SOUTHERN TRACK ALONG WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE PICKED UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HAS BROUGHT AND
INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY. SNOW MAY
LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AS THE LOW CUTS ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. A TRAILING SURFACE HIGH SHOWN BY THE 12Z GFS AND
ECWMF WOULD BRING A COLD BUT DRY START TO NEXT WEEKEND.

ARRIVAL OF THE THE SHARPER ARCTIC AIRMASS WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING IN
THE LONG TERM HAS NOW BEEN PUSHED BACK TIL MONDAY. THIS WOULD BE
USHERED SOUTH BY YET ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH ON
SUNDAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A VERY COLD START TO FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK OVER
MOST OF THE REGION AND EXTENDING BACK UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR
AND IFR WITHIN THE STRATUS DECK...WITH IFR FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALSO EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. SCATTERED FLURRIES
WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET IN
EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST.

TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE MORE LIKELY EAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME
MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF
MVFR VSBY WITH SPOTTY IFR IN ANY SOMEWHAT MORE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL END BY MID TO LATE
EVENING AS THE AIRMASS GROWS COLDER ALOFT. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MAINLY LOW END MVFR AND IFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE COMING
UP TO MVFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE.

ON SUNDAY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN THE MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBY
BEFORE ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL RUN MVFR ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MVFR ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AND WAVES
DIMINISHING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBGM 241953
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
253 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE ALONG A SOUTHWARD
DROPPING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN MONDAY
MORNING, SPREADING LIGHT SNOW INTO THE AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO SEE SNOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND POINTS
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOW IS NOW SITTING A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF CAPE COD
BRINGING WINTRY PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW, SLEET AND RAIN TO NEW
ENGLAND. LGT SNOW HAS ALL BUT EXITED CWA RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. SNOW
REPORTS RANGE FM A DUSTING IN THE SRN TIER OF NY TO AS MUCH AS ISOLD
7-8 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-84.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BRIEFLY MAKING AN APPEARANCE AT SFC-H8 HAS ALLOWED
CLRNG TO DVLP ACRS CNTRL NY AND WL MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACRS ALL OF
CWA THIS AFTN AS IT MVS SOUTH. HWVR, SKIES WL QUICKLY CLD BACK UP
AHD OF IMPENDING CDFNT WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FM CNTRL QUEBEC
INTO THE UPR LAKES AND DROPPING SOUTH.

LGT SNOW SHOWERS WL DVLP AHD OF BNDRY LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG. NOT
EXPECTING FRONT TO GET INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THUS THINK
THAT CHC POPS LOOK BEST THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS BNDRY SLIDES
SOUTH AWAY FM LAKE EXPECTING FLURRIES AND/OR ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WL
DROP DOWN INTO SRN TIER BY DAYBREAK. JUST A DUSTING AT BEST EXPECTED
RIGHT NOW.

H8 TEMPS WL NOT DROP ENUF TO PRODUCE ANY ORGANIZED LK EFFECT SNOWS
TONIGHT WITH DELTA T`S EXPECTED TO BE 10C THRU MRNG HRS. THUS THINK
SCTD SNOW SHOWERS HANDLE IT BEST AT THIS POINT IN TIME. AFT FROPA
BTWN 06Z AND 09Z FLOW WL ALIGN ITSELF ARND 300 DEGREES WITH AN INCH
OR TWO EXPECTED BY MRNG ACRS FAVORED LK ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE HIPRES BUILDING IN FM THE NORTH BRINGING PSUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA BY AFTN. NRLY FLOW STRAIGHT FM CANADA WL ALSO BE
BROUGHT IN WITH TEMPS RMNG STEADY OR GRADUALLY FALLING THRU THE DAY
ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN ZONES. WHERE TEMPS ARE, ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY AT 12Z, WL BE THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY THEN FALLING FURTHER
SOUTH AS THE DAY CONTS. DRY AIR WL BE MVG IN FM ALOFT QUICKLY
DIMINISHING PCPN BY LATE MRNG WITH NO -SHSN EXPECTED AFT 18Z.

SYSTEM NOW UP OVR THE NRN ROCKIES WL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST DRG THE DAY
SUNDAY. ALL MED RANGE MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK
DRG THE DAY AS 12Z GFS, EC, NAM AND CMC HV IT LOCATED ALONG THE
IL/IA/MO LINE BY 12Z SUNDAY. DRY 1024MB SFC HIGH WL HELP SHUNT
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH ACRS THE OH VLY ON SUNDAY WITH NO SNOW EXPECTED.
SFC LOW SCOOTS EAST DRG THE OVRNGT BUT SFC HIGH WL ALSO HOLD TIGHT
THUS EXPECT LGT SNOW TO BEGIN DOWN ACRS POCONOS ARND 06Z. AS HIGH
RELAXES ITS GRIP AND BUILDS INTO ERN CANADA BY DAYBREAK EXPECT THAT
PCPN WL SLIDE NORTH TWD THE STATE LINE BY 12Z MONDAY.

INVERTED TROF EXPECTED TO BRING LGT SNOW TO MOST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE ERN SEABOARD. EXPECTING A
GNRLY 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW, MAINLY FOR SWRN CNTYS THRU 00Z TUESDAY.
INTENSE NOREASTER WL LKLY BRING A FOOT+ TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THRU
MID-WEEK. WITH SFC HIGH STILL HOLDING TIGHT TO EXTRM NRN PARTS OF FA
THERE WL LKLY BE A SHARP LINE BTWN SNOW-NO SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
245 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

A COUPLE OF WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE COASTAL STORM WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO IMPACT THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. WED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION BUT WILL BE QUICKLY PUSHED TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER
CLIPPER APPROACHES NY AND PA. THIS CLIPPER WILL IMPACT THE CWA
CREATING SNOW SHOWERS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO START LATE THURS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR SAT.

TEMPS WED WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM WITH MINIMUM TEMPS
FALLING TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON THURS
AND FRI REACHING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS... THEN FALL BACK BELOW ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM IS PUSHING EAST OUT OF NE PA THIS
AFTERNOON AND COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION. SNOW SHOWERS AT KAVP ARE EXPECTED TO END
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. WE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER... THUS WE WILL SEE A
FEW HOURS OF VFR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST
PA. COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AROUND 09Z AND MAY GENERATE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-MON...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE -SN AT KAVP AS CLIPPER PASSES.

MON NGT-TUE...MINOR RESTRICTIONS FROM LAKE CLOUDS AND/OR -SN...MAINLY
NY TERMINALS.

TUE NGT-WED...MAINLY VFR.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 241953
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
253 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE ALONG A SOUTHWARD
DROPPING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN MONDAY
MORNING, SPREADING LIGHT SNOW INTO THE AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO SEE SNOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND POINTS
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOW IS NOW SITTING A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF CAPE COD
BRINGING WINTRY PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW, SLEET AND RAIN TO NEW
ENGLAND. LGT SNOW HAS ALL BUT EXITED CWA RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. SNOW
REPORTS RANGE FM A DUSTING IN THE SRN TIER OF NY TO AS MUCH AS ISOLD
7-8 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-84.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BRIEFLY MAKING AN APPEARANCE AT SFC-H8 HAS ALLOWED
CLRNG TO DVLP ACRS CNTRL NY AND WL MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACRS ALL OF
CWA THIS AFTN AS IT MVS SOUTH. HWVR, SKIES WL QUICKLY CLD BACK UP
AHD OF IMPENDING CDFNT WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FM CNTRL QUEBEC
INTO THE UPR LAKES AND DROPPING SOUTH.

LGT SNOW SHOWERS WL DVLP AHD OF BNDRY LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG. NOT
EXPECTING FRONT TO GET INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THUS THINK
THAT CHC POPS LOOK BEST THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS BNDRY SLIDES
SOUTH AWAY FM LAKE EXPECTING FLURRIES AND/OR ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WL
DROP DOWN INTO SRN TIER BY DAYBREAK. JUST A DUSTING AT BEST EXPECTED
RIGHT NOW.

H8 TEMPS WL NOT DROP ENUF TO PRODUCE ANY ORGANIZED LK EFFECT SNOWS
TONIGHT WITH DELTA T`S EXPECTED TO BE 10C THRU MRNG HRS. THUS THINK
SCTD SNOW SHOWERS HANDLE IT BEST AT THIS POINT IN TIME. AFT FROPA
BTWN 06Z AND 09Z FLOW WL ALIGN ITSELF ARND 300 DEGREES WITH AN INCH
OR TWO EXPECTED BY MRNG ACRS FAVORED LK ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE HIPRES BUILDING IN FM THE NORTH BRINGING PSUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA BY AFTN. NRLY FLOW STRAIGHT FM CANADA WL ALSO BE
BROUGHT IN WITH TEMPS RMNG STEADY OR GRADUALLY FALLING THRU THE DAY
ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN ZONES. WHERE TEMPS ARE, ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY AT 12Z, WL BE THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY THEN FALLING FURTHER
SOUTH AS THE DAY CONTS. DRY AIR WL BE MVG IN FM ALOFT QUICKLY
DIMINISHING PCPN BY LATE MRNG WITH NO -SHSN EXPECTED AFT 18Z.

SYSTEM NOW UP OVR THE NRN ROCKIES WL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST DRG THE DAY
SUNDAY. ALL MED RANGE MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK
DRG THE DAY AS 12Z GFS, EC, NAM AND CMC HV IT LOCATED ALONG THE
IL/IA/MO LINE BY 12Z SUNDAY. DRY 1024MB SFC HIGH WL HELP SHUNT
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH ACRS THE OH VLY ON SUNDAY WITH NO SNOW EXPECTED.
SFC LOW SCOOTS EAST DRG THE OVRNGT BUT SFC HIGH WL ALSO HOLD TIGHT
THUS EXPECT LGT SNOW TO BEGIN DOWN ACRS POCONOS ARND 06Z. AS HIGH
RELAXES ITS GRIP AND BUILDS INTO ERN CANADA BY DAYBREAK EXPECT THAT
PCPN WL SLIDE NORTH TWD THE STATE LINE BY 12Z MONDAY.

INVERTED TROF EXPECTED TO BRING LGT SNOW TO MOST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE ERN SEABOARD. EXPECTING A
GNRLY 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW, MAINLY FOR SWRN CNTYS THRU 00Z TUESDAY.
INTENSE NOREASTER WL LKLY BRING A FOOT+ TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THRU
MID-WEEK. WITH SFC HIGH STILL HOLDING TIGHT TO EXTRM NRN PARTS OF FA
THERE WL LKLY BE A SHARP LINE BTWN SNOW-NO SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
245 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

A COUPLE OF WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE COASTAL STORM WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO IMPACT THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. WED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION BUT WILL BE QUICKLY PUSHED TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER
CLIPPER APPROACHES NY AND PA. THIS CLIPPER WILL IMPACT THE CWA
CREATING SNOW SHOWERS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO START LATE THURS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR SAT.

TEMPS WED WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM WITH MINIMUM TEMPS
FALLING TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON THURS
AND FRI REACHING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS... THEN FALL BACK BELOW ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM IS PUSHING EAST OUT OF NE PA THIS
AFTERNOON AND COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION. SNOW SHOWERS AT KAVP ARE EXPECTED TO END
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. WE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER... THUS WE WILL SEE A
FEW HOURS OF VFR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST
PA. COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AROUND 09Z AND MAY GENERATE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-MON...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE -SN AT KAVP AS CLIPPER PASSES.

MON NGT-TUE...MINOR RESTRICTIONS FROM LAKE CLOUDS AND/OR -SN...MAINLY
NY TERMINALS.

TUE NGT-WED...MAINLY VFR.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH









000
FXUS61 KBGM 241920
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
220 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE ALONG A SOUTHWARD
DROPPING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN MONDAY
MORNING, SPREADING LIGHT SNOW INTO THE AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO SEE SNOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND POINTS
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOW IS NOW SITTING A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF CAPE COD
BRINGING WINTRY PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW, SLEET AND RAIN TO NEW
ENGLAND. LGT SNOW HAS ALL BUT EXITED CWA RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. SNOW
REPORTS RANGE FM A DUSTING IN THE SRN TIER OF NY TO AS MUCH AS ISOLD
7-8 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-84.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BRIEFLY MAKING AN APPEARANCE AT SFC-H8 HAS ALLOWED
CLRNG TO DVLP ACRS CNTRL NY AND WL MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACRS ALL OF
CWA THIS AFTN AS IT MVS SOUTH. HWVR, SKIES WL QUICKLY CLD BACK UP
AHD OF IMPENDING CDFNT WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FM CNTRL QUEBEC
INTO THE UPR LAKES AND DROPPING SOUTH.

LGT SNOW SHOWERS WL DVLP AHD OF BNDRY LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG. NOT
EXPECTING FRONT TO GET INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THUS THINK
THAT CHC POPS LOOK BEST THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS BNDRY SLIDES
SOUTH AWAY FM LAKE EXPECTING FLURRIES AND/OR ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WL
DROP DOWN INTO SRN TIER BY DAYBREAK. JUST A DUSTING AT BEST EXPECTED
RIGHT NOW.

H8 TEMPS WL NOT DROP ENUF TO PRODUCE ANY ORGANIZED LK EFFECT SNOWS
TONIGHT WITH DELTA T`S EXPECTED TO BE 10C THRU MRNG HRS. THUS THINK
SCTD SNOW SHOWERS HANDLE IT BEST AT THIS POINT IN TIME. AFT FROPA
BTWN 06Z AND 09Z FLOW WL ALIGN ITSELF ARND 300 DEGREES WITH AN INCH
OR TWO EXPECTED BY MRNG ACRS FAVORED LK ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE HIPRES BUILDING IN FM THE NORTH BRINGING PSUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA BY AFTN. NRLY FLOW STRAIGHT FM CANADA WL ALSO BE
BROUGHT IN WITH TEMPS RMNG STEADY OR GRADUALLY FALLING THRU THE DAY
ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN ZONES. WHERE TEMPS ARE, ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY AT 12Z, WL BE THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY THEN FALLING FURTHER
SOUTH AS THE DAY CONTS. DRY AIR WL BE MVG IN FM ALOFT QUICKLY
DIMINISHING PCPN BY LATE MRNG WITH NO -SHSN EXPECTED AFT 18Z.

SYSTEM NOW UP OVR THE NRN ROCKIES WL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST DRG THE DAY
SUNDAY. ALL MED RANGE MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK
DRG THE DAY AS 12Z GFS, EC, NAM AND CMC HV IT LOCATED ALONG THE
IL/IA/MO LINE BY 12Z SUNDAY. DRY 1024MB SFC HIGH WL HELP SHUNT
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH ACRS THE OH VLY ON SUNDAY WITH NO SNOW EXPECTED.
SFC LOW SCOOTS EAST DRG THE OVRNGT BUT SFC HIGH WL ALSO HOLD TIGHT
THUS EXPECT LGT SNOW TO BEGIN DOWN ACRS POCONOS ARND 06Z. AS HIGH
RELAXES ITS GRIP AND BUILDS INTO ERN CANADA BY DAYBREAK EXPECT THAT
PCPN WL SLIDE NORTH TWD THE STATE LINE BY 12Z MONDAY.

INVERTED TROF EXPECTED TO BRING LGT SNOW TO MOST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE ERN SEABOARD. EXPECTING A
GNRLY 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW, MAINLY FOR SWRN CNTYS THRU 00Z TUESDAY.
INTENSE NOREASTER WL LKLY BRING A FOOT+ TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THRU
MID-WEEK. WITH SFC HIGH STILL HOLDING TIGHT TO EXTRM NRN PARTS OF FA
THERE WL LKLY BE A SHARP LINE BTWN SNOW-NO SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV TRENDED SOUTH FOR UPCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM SUN
NGT/MONDAY. STRONG 1025MB CANADIAN HIGH WL BUILD SOUTH AND SHUNT
SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. 12Z GFS, CMC AND EC TRACK IT CLOSE TO THE
PIEDMONT OF NC WITH 12Z NAM NOW GOING THRU THE HEART OF VA. H5 WV IS
STILL OFFSHORE AND WILL BE COMING INTO NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA
TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW HV LOWERED POPS FOR SUN NGT/MON WITH
SYSTEM NOW LOOKING TO BE A NEAR-MISS FOR CWA.

SFC HIGH WL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN CLDR AIR WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS
DROPPING DOWN TO NR 520DM. H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP BLO -10C WL
YIELD LOWS MON MRNG IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE TEENS ON MONDAY AS NRLY FLOW CONTS TO SUPPLY CLD AIR.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WL BE PRESENT OVR THE AREA STARTING MON
NGT AND HV DROPPED POPS TO SLGT CHC JUST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
NERLY FLOW WL BE PRESENT DRG THIS TIME WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA STARTING THUR MRNG.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM IS PUSHING EAST OUT OF NE PA THIS
AFTERNOON AND COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION. SNOW SHOWERS AT KAVP ARE EXPECTED TO END
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. WE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER... THUS WE WILL SEE A
FEW HOURS OF VFR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST
PA. COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AROUND 09Z AND MAY GENERATE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-MON...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE -SN AT KAVP AS CLIPPER PASSES.

MON NGT-TUE...MINOR RESTRICTIONS FROM LAKE CLOUDS AND/OR -SN...MAINLY
NY TERMINALS.

TUE NGT-WED...MAINLY VFR.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...KAH






000
FXUS61 KBGM 241920
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
220 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE ALONG A SOUTHWARD
DROPPING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN MONDAY
MORNING, SPREADING LIGHT SNOW INTO THE AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO SEE SNOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND POINTS
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOW IS NOW SITTING A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF CAPE COD
BRINGING WINTRY PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW, SLEET AND RAIN TO NEW
ENGLAND. LGT SNOW HAS ALL BUT EXITED CWA RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. SNOW
REPORTS RANGE FM A DUSTING IN THE SRN TIER OF NY TO AS MUCH AS ISOLD
7-8 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-84.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BRIEFLY MAKING AN APPEARANCE AT SFC-H8 HAS ALLOWED
CLRNG TO DVLP ACRS CNTRL NY AND WL MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACRS ALL OF
CWA THIS AFTN AS IT MVS SOUTH. HWVR, SKIES WL QUICKLY CLD BACK UP
AHD OF IMPENDING CDFNT WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FM CNTRL QUEBEC
INTO THE UPR LAKES AND DROPPING SOUTH.

LGT SNOW SHOWERS WL DVLP AHD OF BNDRY LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG. NOT
EXPECTING FRONT TO GET INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THUS THINK
THAT CHC POPS LOOK BEST THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS BNDRY SLIDES
SOUTH AWAY FM LAKE EXPECTING FLURRIES AND/OR ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WL
DROP DOWN INTO SRN TIER BY DAYBREAK. JUST A DUSTING AT BEST EXPECTED
RIGHT NOW.

H8 TEMPS WL NOT DROP ENUF TO PRODUCE ANY ORGANIZED LK EFFECT SNOWS
TONIGHT WITH DELTA T`S EXPECTED TO BE 10C THRU MRNG HRS. THUS THINK
SCTD SNOW SHOWERS HANDLE IT BEST AT THIS POINT IN TIME. AFT FROPA
BTWN 06Z AND 09Z FLOW WL ALIGN ITSELF ARND 300 DEGREES WITH AN INCH
OR TWO EXPECTED BY MRNG ACRS FAVORED LK ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE HIPRES BUILDING IN FM THE NORTH BRINGING PSUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA BY AFTN. NRLY FLOW STRAIGHT FM CANADA WL ALSO BE
BROUGHT IN WITH TEMPS RMNG STEADY OR GRADUALLY FALLING THRU THE DAY
ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN ZONES. WHERE TEMPS ARE, ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY AT 12Z, WL BE THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY THEN FALLING FURTHER
SOUTH AS THE DAY CONTS. DRY AIR WL BE MVG IN FM ALOFT QUICKLY
DIMINISHING PCPN BY LATE MRNG WITH NO -SHSN EXPECTED AFT 18Z.

SYSTEM NOW UP OVR THE NRN ROCKIES WL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST DRG THE DAY
SUNDAY. ALL MED RANGE MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK
DRG THE DAY AS 12Z GFS, EC, NAM AND CMC HV IT LOCATED ALONG THE
IL/IA/MO LINE BY 12Z SUNDAY. DRY 1024MB SFC HIGH WL HELP SHUNT
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH ACRS THE OH VLY ON SUNDAY WITH NO SNOW EXPECTED.
SFC LOW SCOOTS EAST DRG THE OVRNGT BUT SFC HIGH WL ALSO HOLD TIGHT
THUS EXPECT LGT SNOW TO BEGIN DOWN ACRS POCONOS ARND 06Z. AS HIGH
RELAXES ITS GRIP AND BUILDS INTO ERN CANADA BY DAYBREAK EXPECT THAT
PCPN WL SLIDE NORTH TWD THE STATE LINE BY 12Z MONDAY.

INVERTED TROF EXPECTED TO BRING LGT SNOW TO MOST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE ERN SEABOARD. EXPECTING A
GNRLY 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW, MAINLY FOR SWRN CNTYS THRU 00Z TUESDAY.
INTENSE NOREASTER WL LKLY BRING A FOOT+ TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THRU
MID-WEEK. WITH SFC HIGH STILL HOLDING TIGHT TO EXTRM NRN PARTS OF FA
THERE WL LKLY BE A SHARP LINE BTWN SNOW-NO SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV TRENDED SOUTH FOR UPCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM SUN
NGT/MONDAY. STRONG 1025MB CANADIAN HIGH WL BUILD SOUTH AND SHUNT
SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. 12Z GFS, CMC AND EC TRACK IT CLOSE TO THE
PIEDMONT OF NC WITH 12Z NAM NOW GOING THRU THE HEART OF VA. H5 WV IS
STILL OFFSHORE AND WILL BE COMING INTO NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA
TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW HV LOWERED POPS FOR SUN NGT/MON WITH
SYSTEM NOW LOOKING TO BE A NEAR-MISS FOR CWA.

SFC HIGH WL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN CLDR AIR WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS
DROPPING DOWN TO NR 520DM. H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP BLO -10C WL
YIELD LOWS MON MRNG IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE TEENS ON MONDAY AS NRLY FLOW CONTS TO SUPPLY CLD AIR.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WL BE PRESENT OVR THE AREA STARTING MON
NGT AND HV DROPPED POPS TO SLGT CHC JUST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
NERLY FLOW WL BE PRESENT DRG THIS TIME WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA STARTING THUR MRNG.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM IS PUSHING EAST OUT OF NE PA THIS
AFTERNOON AND COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION. SNOW SHOWERS AT KAVP ARE EXPECTED TO END
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. WE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER... THUS WE WILL SEE A
FEW HOURS OF VFR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST
PA. COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AROUND 09Z AND MAY GENERATE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-MON...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE -SN AT KAVP AS CLIPPER PASSES.

MON NGT-TUE...MINOR RESTRICTIONS FROM LAKE CLOUDS AND/OR -SN...MAINLY
NY TERMINALS.

TUE NGT-WED...MAINLY VFR.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...KAH






000
FXUS61 KBGM 241920
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
220 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE ALONG A SOUTHWARD
DROPPING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN MONDAY
MORNING, SPREADING LIGHT SNOW INTO THE AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO SEE SNOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND POINTS
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOW IS NOW SITTING A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF CAPE COD
BRINGING WINTRY PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW, SLEET AND RAIN TO NEW
ENGLAND. LGT SNOW HAS ALL BUT EXITED CWA RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. SNOW
REPORTS RANGE FM A DUSTING IN THE SRN TIER OF NY TO AS MUCH AS ISOLD
7-8 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-84.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BRIEFLY MAKING AN APPEARANCE AT SFC-H8 HAS ALLOWED
CLRNG TO DVLP ACRS CNTRL NY AND WL MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACRS ALL OF
CWA THIS AFTN AS IT MVS SOUTH. HWVR, SKIES WL QUICKLY CLD BACK UP
AHD OF IMPENDING CDFNT WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FM CNTRL QUEBEC
INTO THE UPR LAKES AND DROPPING SOUTH.

LGT SNOW SHOWERS WL DVLP AHD OF BNDRY LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG. NOT
EXPECTING FRONT TO GET INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THUS THINK
THAT CHC POPS LOOK BEST THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS BNDRY SLIDES
SOUTH AWAY FM LAKE EXPECTING FLURRIES AND/OR ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WL
DROP DOWN INTO SRN TIER BY DAYBREAK. JUST A DUSTING AT BEST EXPECTED
RIGHT NOW.

H8 TEMPS WL NOT DROP ENUF TO PRODUCE ANY ORGANIZED LK EFFECT SNOWS
TONIGHT WITH DELTA T`S EXPECTED TO BE 10C THRU MRNG HRS. THUS THINK
SCTD SNOW SHOWERS HANDLE IT BEST AT THIS POINT IN TIME. AFT FROPA
BTWN 06Z AND 09Z FLOW WL ALIGN ITSELF ARND 300 DEGREES WITH AN INCH
OR TWO EXPECTED BY MRNG ACRS FAVORED LK ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE HIPRES BUILDING IN FM THE NORTH BRINGING PSUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA BY AFTN. NRLY FLOW STRAIGHT FM CANADA WL ALSO BE
BROUGHT IN WITH TEMPS RMNG STEADY OR GRADUALLY FALLING THRU THE DAY
ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN ZONES. WHERE TEMPS ARE, ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY AT 12Z, WL BE THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY THEN FALLING FURTHER
SOUTH AS THE DAY CONTS. DRY AIR WL BE MVG IN FM ALOFT QUICKLY
DIMINISHING PCPN BY LATE MRNG WITH NO -SHSN EXPECTED AFT 18Z.

SYSTEM NOW UP OVR THE NRN ROCKIES WL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST DRG THE DAY
SUNDAY. ALL MED RANGE MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK
DRG THE DAY AS 12Z GFS, EC, NAM AND CMC HV IT LOCATED ALONG THE
IL/IA/MO LINE BY 12Z SUNDAY. DRY 1024MB SFC HIGH WL HELP SHUNT
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH ACRS THE OH VLY ON SUNDAY WITH NO SNOW EXPECTED.
SFC LOW SCOOTS EAST DRG THE OVRNGT BUT SFC HIGH WL ALSO HOLD TIGHT
THUS EXPECT LGT SNOW TO BEGIN DOWN ACRS POCONOS ARND 06Z. AS HIGH
RELAXES ITS GRIP AND BUILDS INTO ERN CANADA BY DAYBREAK EXPECT THAT
PCPN WL SLIDE NORTH TWD THE STATE LINE BY 12Z MONDAY.

INVERTED TROF EXPECTED TO BRING LGT SNOW TO MOST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE ERN SEABOARD. EXPECTING A
GNRLY 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW, MAINLY FOR SWRN CNTYS THRU 00Z TUESDAY.
INTENSE NOREASTER WL LKLY BRING A FOOT+ TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THRU
MID-WEEK. WITH SFC HIGH STILL HOLDING TIGHT TO EXTRM NRN PARTS OF FA
THERE WL LKLY BE A SHARP LINE BTWN SNOW-NO SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV TRENDED SOUTH FOR UPCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM SUN
NGT/MONDAY. STRONG 1025MB CANADIAN HIGH WL BUILD SOUTH AND SHUNT
SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. 12Z GFS, CMC AND EC TRACK IT CLOSE TO THE
PIEDMONT OF NC WITH 12Z NAM NOW GOING THRU THE HEART OF VA. H5 WV IS
STILL OFFSHORE AND WILL BE COMING INTO NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA
TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW HV LOWERED POPS FOR SUN NGT/MON WITH
SYSTEM NOW LOOKING TO BE A NEAR-MISS FOR CWA.

SFC HIGH WL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN CLDR AIR WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS
DROPPING DOWN TO NR 520DM. H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP BLO -10C WL
YIELD LOWS MON MRNG IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE TEENS ON MONDAY AS NRLY FLOW CONTS TO SUPPLY CLD AIR.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WL BE PRESENT OVR THE AREA STARTING MON
NGT AND HV DROPPED POPS TO SLGT CHC JUST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
NERLY FLOW WL BE PRESENT DRG THIS TIME WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA STARTING THUR MRNG.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM IS PUSHING EAST OUT OF NE PA THIS
AFTERNOON AND COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION. SNOW SHOWERS AT KAVP ARE EXPECTED TO END
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. WE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER... THUS WE WILL SEE A
FEW HOURS OF VFR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST
PA. COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AROUND 09Z AND MAY GENERATE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-MON...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE -SN AT KAVP AS CLIPPER PASSES.

MON NGT-TUE...MINOR RESTRICTIONS FROM LAKE CLOUDS AND/OR -SN...MAINLY
NY TERMINALS.

TUE NGT-WED...MAINLY VFR.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...KAH






000
FXUS61 KBGM 241920
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
220 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE ALONG A SOUTHWARD
DROPPING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN MONDAY
MORNING, SPREADING LIGHT SNOW INTO THE AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO SEE SNOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND POINTS
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOW IS NOW SITTING A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF CAPE COD
BRINGING WINTRY PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW, SLEET AND RAIN TO NEW
ENGLAND. LGT SNOW HAS ALL BUT EXITED CWA RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. SNOW
REPORTS RANGE FM A DUSTING IN THE SRN TIER OF NY TO AS MUCH AS ISOLD
7-8 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-84.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BRIEFLY MAKING AN APPEARANCE AT SFC-H8 HAS ALLOWED
CLRNG TO DVLP ACRS CNTRL NY AND WL MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACRS ALL OF
CWA THIS AFTN AS IT MVS SOUTH. HWVR, SKIES WL QUICKLY CLD BACK UP
AHD OF IMPENDING CDFNT WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FM CNTRL QUEBEC
INTO THE UPR LAKES AND DROPPING SOUTH.

LGT SNOW SHOWERS WL DVLP AHD OF BNDRY LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG. NOT
EXPECTING FRONT TO GET INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THUS THINK
THAT CHC POPS LOOK BEST THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS BNDRY SLIDES
SOUTH AWAY FM LAKE EXPECTING FLURRIES AND/OR ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WL
DROP DOWN INTO SRN TIER BY DAYBREAK. JUST A DUSTING AT BEST EXPECTED
RIGHT NOW.

H8 TEMPS WL NOT DROP ENUF TO PRODUCE ANY ORGANIZED LK EFFECT SNOWS
TONIGHT WITH DELTA T`S EXPECTED TO BE 10C THRU MRNG HRS. THUS THINK
SCTD SNOW SHOWERS HANDLE IT BEST AT THIS POINT IN TIME. AFT FROPA
BTWN 06Z AND 09Z FLOW WL ALIGN ITSELF ARND 300 DEGREES WITH AN INCH
OR TWO EXPECTED BY MRNG ACRS FAVORED LK ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE HIPRES BUILDING IN FM THE NORTH BRINGING PSUNNY
SKIES TO THE AREA BY AFTN. NRLY FLOW STRAIGHT FM CANADA WL ALSO BE
BROUGHT IN WITH TEMPS RMNG STEADY OR GRADUALLY FALLING THRU THE DAY
ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN ZONES. WHERE TEMPS ARE, ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY AT 12Z, WL BE THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY THEN FALLING FURTHER
SOUTH AS THE DAY CONTS. DRY AIR WL BE MVG IN FM ALOFT QUICKLY
DIMINISHING PCPN BY LATE MRNG WITH NO -SHSN EXPECTED AFT 18Z.

SYSTEM NOW UP OVR THE NRN ROCKIES WL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST DRG THE DAY
SUNDAY. ALL MED RANGE MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK
DRG THE DAY AS 12Z GFS, EC, NAM AND CMC HV IT LOCATED ALONG THE
IL/IA/MO LINE BY 12Z SUNDAY. DRY 1024MB SFC HIGH WL HELP SHUNT
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH ACRS THE OH VLY ON SUNDAY WITH NO SNOW EXPECTED.
SFC LOW SCOOTS EAST DRG THE OVRNGT BUT SFC HIGH WL ALSO HOLD TIGHT
THUS EXPECT LGT SNOW TO BEGIN DOWN ACRS POCONOS ARND 06Z. AS HIGH
RELAXES ITS GRIP AND BUILDS INTO ERN CANADA BY DAYBREAK EXPECT THAT
PCPN WL SLIDE NORTH TWD THE STATE LINE BY 12Z MONDAY.

INVERTED TROF EXPECTED TO BRING LGT SNOW TO MOST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE ERN SEABOARD. EXPECTING A
GNRLY 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW, MAINLY FOR SWRN CNTYS THRU 00Z TUESDAY.
INTENSE NOREASTER WL LKLY BRING A FOOT+ TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THRU
MID-WEEK. WITH SFC HIGH STILL HOLDING TIGHT TO EXTRM NRN PARTS OF FA
THERE WL LKLY BE A SHARP LINE BTWN SNOW-NO SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV TRENDED SOUTH FOR UPCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM SUN
NGT/MONDAY. STRONG 1025MB CANADIAN HIGH WL BUILD SOUTH AND SHUNT
SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. 12Z GFS, CMC AND EC TRACK IT CLOSE TO THE
PIEDMONT OF NC WITH 12Z NAM NOW GOING THRU THE HEART OF VA. H5 WV IS
STILL OFFSHORE AND WILL BE COMING INTO NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA
TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW HV LOWERED POPS FOR SUN NGT/MON WITH
SYSTEM NOW LOOKING TO BE A NEAR-MISS FOR CWA.

SFC HIGH WL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN CLDR AIR WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS
DROPPING DOWN TO NR 520DM. H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP BLO -10C WL
YIELD LOWS MON MRNG IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE TEENS ON MONDAY AS NRLY FLOW CONTS TO SUPPLY CLD AIR.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WL BE PRESENT OVR THE AREA STARTING MON
NGT AND HV DROPPED POPS TO SLGT CHC JUST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
NERLY FLOW WL BE PRESENT DRG THIS TIME WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA STARTING THUR MRNG.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM IS PUSHING EAST OUT OF NE PA THIS
AFTERNOON AND COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION. SNOW SHOWERS AT KAVP ARE EXPECTED TO END
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. WE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER... THUS WE WILL SEE A
FEW HOURS OF VFR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST
PA. COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AROUND 09Z AND MAY GENERATE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-MON...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE -SN AT KAVP AS CLIPPER PASSES.

MON NGT-TUE...MINOR RESTRICTIONS FROM LAKE CLOUDS AND/OR -SN...MAINLY
NY TERMINALS.

TUE NGT-WED...MAINLY VFR.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...KAH






000
FXUS61 KOKX 241852
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
152 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO CAPE COD THIS EVENING
AND THEN UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE...SE OF MONTAUK POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO E OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING.

IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING NORTHERN AND THEN SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY...OPERATIONAL AND HIGH RES MODELS STILL SIGNALING A
DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY TRANSLATING EAST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 TENTHS OF QPF POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND...MAINLY
EAST OF THE HUDSON...AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS SE CT/E LI.

THERMAL PROFILES AND DYNAMIC COOLING WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRANSITION
ANY LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR TRI- STATE...WITH A
TRANSITION FROM LIQUID TO SNOW ACROSS CITY/COAST THROUGH 20Z.

SNOW COULD BE BRIEFLY MODERATE TO HEAVY WITH THIS BAND ACROSS
LI/CT.

SO AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO 1 INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR NYC METRO
AND EASTERN LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. COATING TO 2 INCH POTENTIAL
ACROSS LI/CT. A WORST CASE OF AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT. LOW PROB FOR THIS WORST CASE THREAT TO EXTEND DOWN TO
LI.

ANY SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.

ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN DROPPED WEST OF THE HUDSON BASED ON
ABOVE...AND MAY BE ABLE TO DROP NYC/EASTERN HUDSON AT 4 PM BASED
ON BANDING DEVELOPMENT. ADVISORIES FARTHER EAST WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENDED TILL 00Z.

TEMPS WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY OF SLOWLY RISE INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 30S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
BLACK ICE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION AS TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING.

PCPN TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS EVE ACROSS FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S
INLAND....AND 25 TO 30 AT THE COAST.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SUN SENDS A DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR SUN EVE. HIGHS SUN WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S...WITH LOWS MON MORNING GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

NW GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN AFT BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW PRES
PUSHES TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC. A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...AND THEN TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. PREVIOUS MODELS
HAVE KEPT THE STORM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND THEN EAST OF THE
REGION AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST TO A POINT EAST OF CAPE COD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. 00Z NAM...00Z GFS...MOST GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE THIS PATTERN...AND KEEP
THE LOW TO THE EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THE 00Z ECMWF IS AN
OUTLIER IN THAT IT IS A BIT SLOWER AND A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST AS
OPPOSED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...AND SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL DIVE
INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL WRAP INTO THE DEPARTING SFC LOW
AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS LOW WILL ALSO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...FORMING A TIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME.

SHOULD THE ECMWF PAN OUT...IT COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA AS SNOW
WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM AS IT PASSES NEAR THE
BENCHMARK. SHOULD THE GFS/NAM PAN OUT...ANY SNOWFALL THAT FALLS WILL
BE LIGHT...BUT CHANCES WOULD BE MUCH LOWER AND CONFINED TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND THEN
CONFINE CHANCE POPS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED...AS
WITH STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
CLASSIC NOR`EASTER TO DEVELOP...BUT WHETHER SNOWFALL FROM IT IMPACTS
THE OKX FORECAST AREA REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

DRY CONDS FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST. WEAK LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPS
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. THESE TEMPS ARE SOME 10-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS RELATIVE TO NORMAL AT
NIGHT. WIND CHILLS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...POSSIBLY
FROM ZERO TO FIVE BELOW IN SOME AREAS...AND WIND CHILLS DURING THE
DAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS.

TEMPS WARM UP A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
...HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE NIGHT...SEE OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS...

LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
DEEPEN AND HEAD NORTHEAST...MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS
EVENING.

LIGHT PRECIP WITH IFR CONDS PERSIST. HI-RES MODELS FORECAST A
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FROM 20Z-22Z
AND MOVE EAST INTO THIS EVENING...THAT COULD LEAVE A COATING OF
ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS. AFTER THIS PASSES...EXPECT RAPID
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...IN NYC METRO AROUND 00Z-01Z...AND AN HR OT
TWO LATER FARTHER EAST. THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
WINDS SHIFTING FROM N-NW TO WNW ON OR JUST LEFT OF 300
TRUE...AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 20 KT.
THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO JUST UNDER 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...
THEN RAMP UP AGAIN BY 13Z-14Z SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. W WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON-MON EVENING...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW. E-NE WINDS
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT.
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDS IN SNOW. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW WITH NE-N WINDS G30-40 KT...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE AFTERNOON.
.WED...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT.
.THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST WATERS THROUGH SUN
AFT...WITH A MARGINAL GALE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS BETWEEN
MORICHES INLET AND MONTAUK POINT THIS EVENING. NLY WINDS TODAY
WILL BECOME NW TONIGHT AND THEN WEST ON SUN AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NE INTO FROM JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVE TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUN.

12Z MODELS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH A STRONG LOW IMPACTING THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS STARTING ON
MONDAY. CONDS SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CONDS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
DEPARTS AND HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY. THIS WILL FALL MAINLY AS SNOW.

12Z MODELS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF MON INTO
TUE...MAINLY AS SNOW...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT.

DRY CONDS RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ068-
     070>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...









000
FXUS61 KOKX 241852
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
152 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO CAPE COD THIS EVENING
AND THEN UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE...SE OF MONTAUK POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO E OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING.

IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING NORTHERN AND THEN SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY...OPERATIONAL AND HIGH RES MODELS STILL SIGNALING A
DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY TRANSLATING EAST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 TENTHS OF QPF POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND...MAINLY
EAST OF THE HUDSON...AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS SE CT/E LI.

THERMAL PROFILES AND DYNAMIC COOLING WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRANSITION
ANY LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR TRI- STATE...WITH A
TRANSITION FROM LIQUID TO SNOW ACROSS CITY/COAST THROUGH 20Z.

SNOW COULD BE BRIEFLY MODERATE TO HEAVY WITH THIS BAND ACROSS
LI/CT.

SO AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO 1 INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR NYC METRO
AND EASTERN LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. COATING TO 2 INCH POTENTIAL
ACROSS LI/CT. A WORST CASE OF AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT. LOW PROB FOR THIS WORST CASE THREAT TO EXTEND DOWN TO
LI.

ANY SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.

ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN DROPPED WEST OF THE HUDSON BASED ON
ABOVE...AND MAY BE ABLE TO DROP NYC/EASTERN HUDSON AT 4 PM BASED
ON BANDING DEVELOPMENT. ADVISORIES FARTHER EAST WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENDED TILL 00Z.

TEMPS WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY OF SLOWLY RISE INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 30S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
BLACK ICE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION AS TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING.

PCPN TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS EVE ACROSS FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S
INLAND....AND 25 TO 30 AT THE COAST.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SUN SENDS A DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR SUN EVE. HIGHS SUN WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S...WITH LOWS MON MORNING GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

NW GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN AFT BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW PRES
PUSHES TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC. A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...AND THEN TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. PREVIOUS MODELS
HAVE KEPT THE STORM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND THEN EAST OF THE
REGION AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST TO A POINT EAST OF CAPE COD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. 00Z NAM...00Z GFS...MOST GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE THIS PATTERN...AND KEEP
THE LOW TO THE EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THE 00Z ECMWF IS AN
OUTLIER IN THAT IT IS A BIT SLOWER AND A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST AS
OPPOSED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...AND SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL DIVE
INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL WRAP INTO THE DEPARTING SFC LOW
AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS LOW WILL ALSO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...FORMING A TIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME.

SHOULD THE ECMWF PAN OUT...IT COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA AS SNOW
WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM AS IT PASSES NEAR THE
BENCHMARK. SHOULD THE GFS/NAM PAN OUT...ANY SNOWFALL THAT FALLS WILL
BE LIGHT...BUT CHANCES WOULD BE MUCH LOWER AND CONFINED TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND THEN
CONFINE CHANCE POPS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED...AS
WITH STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
CLASSIC NOR`EASTER TO DEVELOP...BUT WHETHER SNOWFALL FROM IT IMPACTS
THE OKX FORECAST AREA REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

DRY CONDS FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST. WEAK LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPS
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. THESE TEMPS ARE SOME 10-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS RELATIVE TO NORMAL AT
NIGHT. WIND CHILLS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...POSSIBLY
FROM ZERO TO FIVE BELOW IN SOME AREAS...AND WIND CHILLS DURING THE
DAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS.

TEMPS WARM UP A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
...HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE NIGHT...SEE OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS...

LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
DEEPEN AND HEAD NORTHEAST...MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS
EVENING.

LIGHT PRECIP WITH IFR CONDS PERSIST. HI-RES MODELS FORECAST A
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FROM 20Z-22Z
AND MOVE EAST INTO THIS EVENING...THAT COULD LEAVE A COATING OF
ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS. AFTER THIS PASSES...EXPECT RAPID
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...IN NYC METRO AROUND 00Z-01Z...AND AN HR OT
TWO LATER FARTHER EAST. THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
WINDS SHIFTING FROM N-NW TO WNW ON OR JUST LEFT OF 300
TRUE...AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 20 KT.
THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO JUST UNDER 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...
THEN RAMP UP AGAIN BY 13Z-14Z SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. W WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MON-MON EVENING...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW. E-NE WINDS
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT.
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDS IN SNOW. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW WITH NE-N WINDS G30-40 KT...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE AFTERNOON.
.WED...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT.
.THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST WATERS THROUGH SUN
AFT...WITH A MARGINAL GALE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS BETWEEN
MORICHES INLET AND MONTAUK POINT THIS EVENING. NLY WINDS TODAY
WILL BECOME NW TONIGHT AND THEN WEST ON SUN AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NE INTO FROM JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVE TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUN.

12Z MODELS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH A STRONG LOW IMPACTING THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS STARTING ON
MONDAY. CONDS SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CONDS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
DEPARTS AND HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY. THIS WILL FALL MAINLY AS SNOW.

12Z MODELS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF MON INTO
TUE...MAINLY AS SNOW...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT.

DRY CONDS RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ068-
     070>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBUF 241830
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
130 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THEN FOLLOWING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A THICK LOW STRATUS OVERCAST
COVERING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
ALLEGANY AND LEWIS COUNTIES WHERE SOME BONUS SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE STRATUS MOVES IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS OUR REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN ADDED BOOST
OF MOISTURE FROM OFF THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NY AND THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION.

FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH MID EVENING AS PRECIP BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO DUE TO A LITTLE
DEEPER MOISTURE OFF THE LAKES AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
TERRAIN JUST EAST OF THE LAKES. NAM BUFKIT PROFILES ARE VERY CLOSE
TO NOT BEING COLD ENOUGH IN THE CLOUD LAYER TO SUPPORT ICE
NUCLEI...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE CLOUD LAYER NEAR -8C. WHEN
THE INITIAL PUSH OF LIGHT PRECIP STARTED HERE AT THE OFFICE AND ALSO
AT KIAG...IT BEGAN TO MIX WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. UPSTREAM OBS ALSO
SHOW SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
FROM THE EAST SHORES OF LAKE HURON TO THE CAPITAL CITY OF
OTTAWA...AND THIS SAME AIRMASS WILL BE OVER OUR REGION THIS EVENING.
BY LATE EVENING MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN AND CLOUD TOP TEMPS WILL
COOL...INTRODUCING ICE NUCLEI BACK INTO THE CLOUD LAYER AND ENDING
THE CHANCES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL GRADUALLY
SAG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/
LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FURTHER AUGMENT THE EXISTING
FORCING REFERRED TO ABOVE...THEREBY LEADING TO THE BEST OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. EXPECT THESE
TO BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN NATURE...WITH THE GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION AGAIN EXPECTED NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPING AND LAKE-DRIVEN ENHANCEMENT OF
THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE FIELD. IN THESE LATTER AREAS HAVE GONE
WITH A ROUND OF HIGH LIKELY POPS...ALONG WITH SOME MODEST ACCUMS OF
AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS THERE MOST LIKELY TO
FOCUS ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE...ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE BULK OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME BETWEEN EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GENERALLY DIMINISHING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S TODAY...WITH TEMPS THEN SHARPLY DROPPING OFF AS COLD
ADVECTION SETS UP FOLLOWING THE FROPA TONIGHT. BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY
MORNING...EXPECT READINGS TO HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...AND TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES ARE GUARANTEED TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN THE MERCURY WILL BE SOME
10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN WHERE IT SHOULD BE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
IMPRESSIVE BECAUSE CLIMATOLOGICALLY WE ARE AT OUR COLDEST POINT OF
THE YEAR. THE ZENITH AND NADIR OF OUR ANNUAL TEMPERATURES OCCUR
ROUGHLY 5 WEEKS AFTER THE CORRESPONDING SOLSTICE. BY THE START OF
FEBRUARY...OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING.

THE COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO A DEEPENING
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL
DIRECT COLD AIR FROM NUNAVUT AND THE CANADIAN ARCTIC ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. LUCKILY FOR OUR REGION...THE COLD WILL
NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AS THE ONLY REAL STORM
SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. MORE ON THAT IN A MOMENT.

AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD...A BOMBOGENETIC LOW WILL BE PUSHING NORTH
ALONG THE COAST OF QUEBEC WHILE A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LATTER OF THESE FEATURES
WAS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR FORECAST AREA
TO BRING US A FEW INCHES OF SNOW INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...SFC BASED RIDGING BETWEEN THE STORM SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER OVER OUR REGION WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME
NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AN FLURRIES. INITIALLY...A COLD 310 FLOW
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES...BUT WITH A CAP UNDER 6K FT AND A SERIOUS LACK OF SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE...SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO UNDER AN INCH. AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH.
THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW SOUTH OF LK ONTARIO SHOULD KEEP A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WHILE HELPING TO GENERATE FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE NEARLY
STEADY IN THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS. THESE READINGS WERE LOWERED BY
SOME 5 DEG FROM CONTINUITY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST TO THE CAROLINAS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY. AGAIN...THIS WILL KEEP A SHIELD OF
STEADY SNOW TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. GIVEN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...MOST AREAS
WILL BE FREE FROM ANY LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH THE MERCURY PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND WELL BELOW ZERO EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. AGAIN...THESE READINGS HAVE BEEN LOWERED FROM CONTINUITY.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY AS GENERAL RIDGING
WILL BE FOUND OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH MORE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER...ALBEIT COLD WITH TEMPERATURES
NOT CLIMBING OUT OF THE TEENS (SINGLE DIGITS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY).

WHILE ANOTHER DEEP COASTAL STORM IS FORECAST CHURN UP THE NORTHEAST
COAST ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE
TO NOSE BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP VERY COLD
IN PLACE...WITH A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ENCOURAGING SOME PESKY LOW
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER THE BULK OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MODERATING OF THE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DO NOT
LET THIS FOOL YOU THOUGH...AS AT THE SAME TIME...OLD MAN WINTER WILL
BE SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ARCTIC INTRUSION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA.

SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC WHEN WE OPEN THIS PERIOD...BUT AS WE PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...A LARGE SLUG OF THIS FRIGID AIR WILL BREAK
LOOSE AND PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CANADA. IN FACT...
THERE IS A SUGGESTION FROM MANY OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS THAT THE NOTORIOUS POLAR VORTEX WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH
OVER ONTARIO. IF THIS WERE TO COME TO FRUITION...THEN THE START OF
FEBRUARY COULD CERTAINLY FEATURE SOME OF THE COLDEST WEATHER THAT WE
WOULD EXPERIENCE THIS WINTER. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK OVER
MOST OF THE REGION AND EXTENDING BACK UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR
AND IFR WITHIN THE STRATUS DECK...WITH IFR FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALSO EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. SCATTERED FLURRIES
WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET IN
EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST.

TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE MORE LIKELY EAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME
MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF
MVFR VSBY WITH SPOTTY IFR IN ANY SOMEWHAT MORE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL END BY MID TO LATE
EVENING AS THE AIRMASS GROWS COLDER ALOFT. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MAINLY LOW END MVFR AND IFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE COMING
UP TO MVFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE.

ON SUNDAY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN THE MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBY
BEFORE ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL RUN MVFR ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MVFR ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
SAGS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...THEN WILL
VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. WITH WINDS AND WAVES
LIKELY TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS ON LAKE ONTARIO FROM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THAT LAKE AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ001-002-006>008-010>012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JJR






000
FXUS61 KBUF 241830
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
130 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THEN FOLLOWING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A THICK LOW STRATUS OVERCAST
COVERING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
ALLEGANY AND LEWIS COUNTIES WHERE SOME BONUS SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE STRATUS MOVES IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS OUR REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN ADDED BOOST
OF MOISTURE FROM OFF THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NY AND THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION.

FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH MID EVENING AS PRECIP BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO DUE TO A LITTLE
DEEPER MOISTURE OFF THE LAKES AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
TERRAIN JUST EAST OF THE LAKES. NAM BUFKIT PROFILES ARE VERY CLOSE
TO NOT BEING COLD ENOUGH IN THE CLOUD LAYER TO SUPPORT ICE
NUCLEI...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE CLOUD LAYER NEAR -8C. WHEN
THE INITIAL PUSH OF LIGHT PRECIP STARTED HERE AT THE OFFICE AND ALSO
AT KIAG...IT BEGAN TO MIX WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. UPSTREAM OBS ALSO
SHOW SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
FROM THE EAST SHORES OF LAKE HURON TO THE CAPITAL CITY OF
OTTAWA...AND THIS SAME AIRMASS WILL BE OVER OUR REGION THIS EVENING.
BY LATE EVENING MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN AND CLOUD TOP TEMPS WILL
COOL...INTRODUCING ICE NUCLEI BACK INTO THE CLOUD LAYER AND ENDING
THE CHANCES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL GRADUALLY
SAG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/
LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FURTHER AUGMENT THE EXISTING
FORCING REFERRED TO ABOVE...THEREBY LEADING TO THE BEST OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. EXPECT THESE
TO BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN NATURE...WITH THE GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION AGAIN EXPECTED NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPING AND LAKE-DRIVEN ENHANCEMENT OF
THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE FIELD. IN THESE LATTER AREAS HAVE GONE
WITH A ROUND OF HIGH LIKELY POPS...ALONG WITH SOME MODEST ACCUMS OF
AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS THERE MOST LIKELY TO
FOCUS ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE...ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE BULK OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME BETWEEN EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GENERALLY DIMINISHING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S TODAY...WITH TEMPS THEN SHARPLY DROPPING OFF AS COLD
ADVECTION SETS UP FOLLOWING THE FROPA TONIGHT. BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY
MORNING...EXPECT READINGS TO HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...AND TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES ARE GUARANTEED TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN THE MERCURY WILL BE SOME
10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN WHERE IT SHOULD BE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
IMPRESSIVE BECAUSE CLIMATOLOGICALLY WE ARE AT OUR COLDEST POINT OF
THE YEAR. THE ZENITH AND NADIR OF OUR ANNUAL TEMPERATURES OCCUR
ROUGHLY 5 WEEKS AFTER THE CORRESPONDING SOLSTICE. BY THE START OF
FEBRUARY...OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING.

THE COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO A DEEPENING
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL
DIRECT COLD AIR FROM NUNAVUT AND THE CANADIAN ARCTIC ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. LUCKILY FOR OUR REGION...THE COLD WILL
NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AS THE ONLY REAL STORM
SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. MORE ON THAT IN A MOMENT.

AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD...A BOMBOGENETIC LOW WILL BE PUSHING NORTH
ALONG THE COAST OF QUEBEC WHILE A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LATTER OF THESE FEATURES
WAS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR FORECAST AREA
TO BRING US A FEW INCHES OF SNOW INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...SFC BASED RIDGING BETWEEN THE STORM SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER OVER OUR REGION WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME
NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AN FLURRIES. INITIALLY...A COLD 310 FLOW
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES...BUT WITH A CAP UNDER 6K FT AND A SERIOUS LACK OF SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE...SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO UNDER AN INCH. AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH.
THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW SOUTH OF LK ONTARIO SHOULD KEEP A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WHILE HELPING TO GENERATE FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE NEARLY
STEADY IN THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS. THESE READINGS WERE LOWERED BY
SOME 5 DEG FROM CONTINUITY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST TO THE CAROLINAS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY. AGAIN...THIS WILL KEEP A SHIELD OF
STEADY SNOW TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. GIVEN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...MOST AREAS
WILL BE FREE FROM ANY LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH THE MERCURY PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND WELL BELOW ZERO EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. AGAIN...THESE READINGS HAVE BEEN LOWERED FROM CONTINUITY.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY AS GENERAL RIDGING
WILL BE FOUND OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH MORE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER...ALBEIT COLD WITH TEMPERATURES
NOT CLIMBING OUT OF THE TEENS (SINGLE DIGITS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY).

WHILE ANOTHER DEEP COASTAL STORM IS FORECAST CHURN UP THE NORTHEAST
COAST ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE
TO NOSE BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP VERY COLD
IN PLACE...WITH A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ENCOURAGING SOME PESKY LOW
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER THE BULK OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MODERATING OF THE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DO NOT
LET THIS FOOL YOU THOUGH...AS AT THE SAME TIME...OLD MAN WINTER WILL
BE SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ARCTIC INTRUSION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA.

SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC WHEN WE OPEN THIS PERIOD...BUT AS WE PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...A LARGE SLUG OF THIS FRIGID AIR WILL BREAK
LOOSE AND PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CANADA. IN FACT...
THERE IS A SUGGESTION FROM MANY OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS THAT THE NOTORIOUS POLAR VORTEX WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH
OVER ONTARIO. IF THIS WERE TO COME TO FRUITION...THEN THE START OF
FEBRUARY COULD CERTAINLY FEATURE SOME OF THE COLDEST WEATHER THAT WE
WOULD EXPERIENCE THIS WINTER. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK OVER
MOST OF THE REGION AND EXTENDING BACK UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR
AND IFR WITHIN THE STRATUS DECK...WITH IFR FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALSO EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. SCATTERED FLURRIES
WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET IN
EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST.

TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE MORE LIKELY EAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME
MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF
MVFR VSBY WITH SPOTTY IFR IN ANY SOMEWHAT MORE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL END BY MID TO LATE
EVENING AS THE AIRMASS GROWS COLDER ALOFT. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MAINLY LOW END MVFR AND IFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE COMING
UP TO MVFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE.

ON SUNDAY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN THE MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBY
BEFORE ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL RUN MVFR ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MVFR ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
SAGS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...THEN WILL
VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. WITH WINDS AND WAVES
LIKELY TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS ON LAKE ONTARIO FROM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THAT LAKE AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ001-002-006>008-010>012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JJR





000
FXUS61 KALY 241825
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COASTAL LOW LOCATED SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY RESULTING IN SOME SNOW SHOWERS. A SURGE OF UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR WITH BE USHERED IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE DOWNGRADED LITCHFIELD COUNTY FROM A WINTER STORM WARNING TO A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ULSTER COUNTY HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR BERKSHIRE...DUTCHESS...
EASTERN COLUMBIA AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES.

THE BULK OF THE STEADY SNOW HAS OCCURRED HOWEVER STILL NEED TO
DEAL WITH THE SYSTEM`S DEFORMATION BAND AS THE SHORT WAVE ROTATES
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DEFORMATION BAND SHOULD IMPACT THE AREAS
JUST TO OUR EAST. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES
HAVE MAINTAINED HEADLINES TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
WHEN THE PRECIPITATION LIGHTEN UP SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE MENTION
OF CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE TEMPERATURE ARE ABOVE FREEZING RAIN.

FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA PLEASE
REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS. WE DID GET SOME BANDING
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT EARLIER RESULTING IN 1
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SARATOGA COUNTY. HAVE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT AT THIS ADDRESSING THE
SNOWBAND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING COASTAL STORM...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AT TIMES...AND
SHOULD ALSO KEEP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASES IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THEN
EXPANDING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL
AS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...OR PERHAPS EMBEDDED SQUALLS COULD ALSO DEVELOP...AND
POSSIBLY EXTEND INTO VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. SNOWFALL
ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
BY DAYBREAK...AROUND AN INCH ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN
VT/NW MA...AND A COATING TO UP TO AN INCH IN AREAS WHICH
EXPERIENCE ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS...INCLUDING SOME
VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. MIN TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
REACHED IN MOST AREAS UNTIL DAYBREAK...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID
20S. SLIGHTLY COLDER MINS COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT SHOULD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP WITH
THE FRESH SNOW COVER IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...SOME MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN...COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON BRISK NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
AS THE FRONT PASSES...A PERIOD OF DEEPER MIXING AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING COULD ALLOW SOME VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY SPIKE IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEREAFTER...TEMPS SHOULD FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL TRACK AND IMPACTS FROM A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME RECENT 00Z/24 GEFS AND SREF MEMBERS...AS
WELL AS THE 00Z/24 ECMWF...STILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
FOR THIS SYSTEM...ESP AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND POSSIBLY CAPTURES THE SFC FEATURE OFF THE LONG ISLAND OR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE VERY LEAST...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ABUNDANT IN THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
SUN NT/MON AM...WITH MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO FOR MANY AREAS...WITH EVEN COLDER MINS POSSIBLE SHOULD
THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BE THINNER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
WINDS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...SO NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. ON MONDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE TEENS
IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT WILL BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE.

ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IT WILL BE A TOUGH CALL AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT A COASTAL LOW IMPACTS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FA. THE ECMWF
IS DECIDEDLY WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK FROM THE GFS AND GGEM
POSITIONS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS A SPRAWLING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT BUILDS EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE SWEEPING EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF CAPE COD WITH A TRAILING
TROUGH AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR REGION. SINCE THIS IS FAR OUT
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND MUCH CAN CHANGE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
UPPER TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONE LAST THIN BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TRACKING EXITING KALB AND HEADED
TOWARD KPSF. JUST A LITTLE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AT KALB THROUGH
ABOUT 19Z. KPOU STILL HAS SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW LINGERING...BUT
SHOULD END AROUND 21Z. THE THIN TRAILING BAND OF SNOW IS MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KGFL AND KALB AND WILL AFFECT KPSF THROUGH 19Z OR
20Z.

BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...SOME VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KGFL
AND KALB...BUT LIKELY KPSF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KPOU
COULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LESS PROGRESS TO THE EXIT OF THE SNOW IN
SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT ALL
SITES THIS EVENING...THEN AN MVFR CEILING SHOULD DEVELOP AND SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 06Z...AND LAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...PERHAPS TO 15Z. AFTER 15Z...ALL TAF SITES SHOULD
RETURN TO UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOULD BECOME WEST THIS EVENING...THEN NORTHWEST LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  AFTER 15Z...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT AND COULD BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON..

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE TO
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY SATURDAY NIGHT.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS AND RECENTLY HAS EXHIBITED A DECREASE IN GAGE
LEVELS /BELOW FLOOD STAGE/.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ061-065-066.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV







000
FXUS61 KALY 241816
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
116 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR AREAS FROM MAINLY THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER LITCHFIELD COUNTY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE DOWNGRADED LITCHFIELD COUNTY FROM A WINTER STORM WARNING TO A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ULSTER COUNTY HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR BERKSHIRE...DUTCHESS...
EASTERN COLUMBIA AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES.

THE BULK OF THE STEADY SNOW HAS OCCURRED HOWEVER STILL NEED TO
DEAL WITH THE SYSTEM`S DEFORMATION BAND AS THE SHORT WAVE ROTATES
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DEFORMATION BAND SHOULD IMPACT THE AREAS
JUST TO OUR EAST. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES
HAVE MAINTAINED HEADLINES TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
WHEN THE PRECIPITATION LIGHTEN UP SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE MENTION
OF CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE TEMPERATURE ARE ABOVE FREEZING RAIN.

FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA PLEASE
REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS. WE DID GET SOME BANDING
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT EARLIER RESULTING IN 1
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SARATOGA COUNTY. HAVE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT AT THIS ADDRESSING THE
SNOWBAND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING COASTAL STORM...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AT TIMES...AND
SHOULD ALSO KEEP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASES IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THEN
EXPANDING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL
AS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...OR PERHAPS EMBEDDED SQUALLS COULD ALSO DEVELOP...AND
POSSIBLY EXTEND INTO VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. SNOWFALL
ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
BY DAYBREAK...AROUND AN INCH ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN
VT/NW MA...AND A COATING TO UP TO AN INCH IN AREAS WHICH
EXPERIENCE ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS...INCLUDING SOME
VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. MIN TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
REACHED IN MOST AREAS UNTIL DAYBREAK...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID
20S. SLIGHTLY COLDER MINS COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT SHOULD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP WITH
THE FRESH SNOW COVER IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...SOME MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN...COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON BRISK NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
AS THE FRONT PASSES...A PERIOD OF DEEPER MIXING AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING COULD ALLOW SOME VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY SPIKE IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEREAFTER...TEMPS SHOULD FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL TRACK AND IMPACTS FROM A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME RECENT 00Z/24 GEFS AND SREF MEMBERS...AS
WELL AS THE 00Z/24 ECMWF...STILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
FOR THIS SYSTEM...ESP AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND POSSIBLY CAPTURES THE SFC FEATURE OFF THE LONG ISLAND OR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE VERY LEAST...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ABUNDANT IN THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
SUN NT/MON AM...WITH MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO FOR MANY AREAS...WITH EVEN COLDER MINS POSSIBLE SHOULD
THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BE THINNER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
WINDS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...SO NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. ON MONDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE TEENS
IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT WILL BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE.

ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IT WILL BE A TOUGH CALL AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT A COASTAL LOW IMPACTS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FA. THE ECMWF
IS DECIDEDLY WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK FROM THE GFS AND GGEM
POSITIONS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS A SPRAWLING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT BUILDS EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE SWEEPING EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF CAPE COD WITH A TRAILING
TROUGH AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR REGION. SINCE THIS IS FAR OUT
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND MUCH CAN CHANGE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
UPPER TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ONE LAST THIN BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TRACKING EXITING KALB AND HEADED
TOWARD KPSF. JUST A LITTLE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AT KALB THROUGH
ABOUT 19Z. KPOU STILL HAS SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW LINGERING...BUT
SHOULD END AROUND 21Z. THE THIN TRAILING BAND OF SNOW IS MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KGFL AND KALB AND WILL AFFECT KPSF THROUGH 19Z OR
20Z.

BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...SOME VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KGFL
AND KALB...BUT LIKELY KPSF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KPOU
COULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LESS PROGRESS TO THE EXIT OF THE SNOW IN
SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT ALL
SITES THIS EVENING...THEN AN MVFR CEILING SHOULD DEVELOP AND SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 06Z...AND LAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...PERHAPS TO 15Z. AFTER 15Z...ALL TAF SITES SHOULD
RETURN TO UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOULD BECOME WEST THIS EVENING...THEN NORTHWEST LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  AFTER 15Z...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT AND COULD BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON..

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE TO
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY SATURDAY NIGHT.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS AND RECENTLY HAS EXHIBITED A DECREASE IN GAGE
LEVELS /BELOW FLOOD STAGE/.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ061-065-066.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV







000
FXUS61 KALY 241816
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
116 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR AREAS FROM MAINLY THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER LITCHFIELD COUNTY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE DOWNGRADED LITCHFIELD COUNTY FROM A WINTER STORM WARNING TO A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ULSTER COUNTY HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR BERKSHIRE...DUTCHESS...
EASTERN COLUMBIA AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES.

THE BULK OF THE STEADY SNOW HAS OCCURRED HOWEVER STILL NEED TO
DEAL WITH THE SYSTEM`S DEFORMATION BAND AS THE SHORT WAVE ROTATES
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DEFORMATION BAND SHOULD IMPACT THE AREAS
JUST TO OUR EAST. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES
HAVE MAINTAINED HEADLINES TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
WHEN THE PRECIPITATION LIGHTEN UP SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE MENTION
OF CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE TEMPERATURE ARE ABOVE FREEZING RAIN.

FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA PLEASE
REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS. WE DID GET SOME BANDING
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT EARLIER RESULTING IN 1
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SARATOGA COUNTY. HAVE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT AT THIS ADDRESSING THE
SNOWBAND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING COASTAL STORM...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AT TIMES...AND
SHOULD ALSO KEEP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASES IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THEN
EXPANDING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL
AS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...OR PERHAPS EMBEDDED SQUALLS COULD ALSO DEVELOP...AND
POSSIBLY EXTEND INTO VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. SNOWFALL
ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
BY DAYBREAK...AROUND AN INCH ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN
VT/NW MA...AND A COATING TO UP TO AN INCH IN AREAS WHICH
EXPERIENCE ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS...INCLUDING SOME
VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. MIN TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
REACHED IN MOST AREAS UNTIL DAYBREAK...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID
20S. SLIGHTLY COLDER MINS COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT SHOULD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP WITH
THE FRESH SNOW COVER IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...SOME MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN...COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON BRISK NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
AS THE FRONT PASSES...A PERIOD OF DEEPER MIXING AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING COULD ALLOW SOME VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY SPIKE IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEREAFTER...TEMPS SHOULD FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL TRACK AND IMPACTS FROM A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME RECENT 00Z/24 GEFS AND SREF MEMBERS...AS
WELL AS THE 00Z/24 ECMWF...STILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
FOR THIS SYSTEM...ESP AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND POSSIBLY CAPTURES THE SFC FEATURE OFF THE LONG ISLAND OR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE VERY LEAST...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ABUNDANT IN THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
SUN NT/MON AM...WITH MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO FOR MANY AREAS...WITH EVEN COLDER MINS POSSIBLE SHOULD
THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BE THINNER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
WINDS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...SO NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. ON MONDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE TEENS
IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT WILL BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE.

ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IT WILL BE A TOUGH CALL AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT A COASTAL LOW IMPACTS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FA. THE ECMWF
IS DECIDEDLY WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK FROM THE GFS AND GGEM
POSITIONS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS A SPRAWLING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT BUILDS EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE SWEEPING EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF CAPE COD WITH A TRAILING
TROUGH AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR REGION. SINCE THIS IS FAR OUT
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND MUCH CAN CHANGE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
UPPER TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ONE LAST THIN BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TRACKING EXITING KALB AND HEADED
TOWARD KPSF. JUST A LITTLE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AT KALB THROUGH
ABOUT 19Z. KPOU STILL HAS SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW LINGERING...BUT
SHOULD END AROUND 21Z. THE THIN TRAILING BAND OF SNOW IS MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KGFL AND KALB AND WILL AFFECT KPSF THROUGH 19Z OR
20Z.

BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...SOME VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KGFL
AND KALB...BUT LIKELY KPSF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KPOU
COULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LESS PROGRESS TO THE EXIT OF THE SNOW IN
SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT ALL
SITES THIS EVENING...THEN AN MVFR CEILING SHOULD DEVELOP AND SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 06Z...AND LAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...PERHAPS TO 15Z. AFTER 15Z...ALL TAF SITES SHOULD
RETURN TO UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOULD BECOME WEST THIS EVENING...THEN NORTHWEST LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  AFTER 15Z...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT AND COULD BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON..

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE TO
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY SATURDAY NIGHT.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS AND RECENTLY HAS EXHIBITED A DECREASE IN GAGE
LEVELS /BELOW FLOOD STAGE/.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ061-065-066.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 241815
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ARCTIC COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1220 PM EST SATURDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST AS OF THIS UPDATE. COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS A WEAK
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES AND THE
SPRINGFIELD OB IS REPORTING LIGHT SNOW SO I CONTINUED THE
INCREASE IN POPS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE 1-2 INCHES PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD WORK OUT
JUST FINE SO I LEFT THAT ALONE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA LOOK IN SHAPE TO WARM IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH BTV
ALREADY UP TO 34 AND PBG AT 32. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LEFT
ALONE AS IT IS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO CROSSES
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOME DECENT VORTICITY
ADVECTION. MINS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES HANG AROUND TWENTY AS FRONT
TAKES THE LONGEST TO REACH THERE. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THEN WIND DOWN TOWARDS MORNING. ONLY EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE AREA FROM CANADA BRINGING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. MAY
SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE DAYTIME
HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
COLDER OF THE TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE...SOME -20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EST SATURDAY...QUIET...COLD AND GENERALLY DRY MID-
WINTER CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME AS BROAD LONGWAVE POLAR TROUGH REMAINS ATOP THE
NORTHEAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED BENEATH. DID OFFER AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHSN FAR EAST/SOUTH DURING TUESDAY AS
OFFSHORE SYSTEM PASSES NEAR THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK. THIS IS MAINLY
OUT OF RESPECT FOR MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHICH SHOW A
SOMEWHAT BROADER WESTERN EXTENT TO THE QPF FIELD OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THIS
MORNING`S UKMET...GFS AND GEM IS FOR A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST AND
THIS IS WHAT I`LL LEAN TOWARD...ESP SINCE BENCHMARK SYSTEMS ARE
USUALLY MINIMAL PLAYERS FOR US.

ONLY OTHER NOTABLE CHANCE OF PCPN WILL OCCUR LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVANCE
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN SHOWING BROAD CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
LOOKING AT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING REALLY ONLY
LIGHT SHSN HERE AND THERE WITH THE BEST SHOT OF ANY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS GIVEN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR MVFR CEILINGS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LOWER LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM CANADA. EXPECTING
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FROM 04Z-12Z SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FROM
07Z-14Z SUNDAY ACROSS VERMONT. EXPECTING SURFACE WIND GUSTS FROM
THE NORTHWEST AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS FROM 06Z-14Z SUNDAY THROUGH
18Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...DEVELOPING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WGH



000
FXUS61 KBUF 241756
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1256 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THEN FOLLOWING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A THICK LOW STRATUS OVERCAST
COVERING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
ALLEGANY AND LEWIS COUNTIES WHERE SOME BONUS SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE STRATUS MOVES IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS OUR REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL THEN COME TO AN END LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PRESSES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AND AS
BOTH SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MODEST LEAD SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
OF THESE NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE LAKES.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING AS PRECIP BEGINS TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO DUE TO A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE OFF THE LAKES AND FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE TERRAIN JUST EAST OF THE LAKES. NAM BUFKIT
PROFILES ARE VERY CLOSE TO NOT BEING COLD ENOUGH IN THE CLOUD LAYER
TO SUPPORT ICE NUCLEI...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE CLOUD LAYER
NEAR -8C. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND MAY NEED TO ADD FZDZ INTO
THE FORECAST AND ISSUE A SHORT LIVED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SLICK SPOTS. BY MID TO LATE EVENING
MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN AND CLOUD TOP TEMPS WILL COOL...INTRODUCING ICE
NUCLEI BACK INTO THE CLOUD LAYER AND ENDING THE CHANCES OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL GRADUALLY
SAG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/
LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FURTHER AUGMENT THE EXISTING
FORCING REFERRED TO ABOVE...THEREBY LEADING TO THE BEST OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. EXPECT THESE
TO BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN NATURE...WITH THE GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION AGAIN EXPECTED NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPING AND LAKE-DRIVEN ENHANCEMENT OF
THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE FIELD. IN THESE LATTER AREAS HAVE GONE
WITH A ROUND OF HIGH LIKELY POPS...ALONG WITH SOME MODEST ACCUMS OF
AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS THERE MOST LIKELY TO
FOCUS ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE...ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE BULK OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME BETWEEN EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GENERALLY DIMINISHING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S TODAY...WITH TEMPS THEN SHARPLY DROPPING OFF AS COLD
ADVECTION SETS UP FOLLOWING THE FROPA TONIGHT. BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY
MORNING...EXPECT READINGS TO HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...AND TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES ARE GUARANTEED TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN THE MERCURY WILL BE SOME
10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN WHERE IT SHOULD BE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
IMPRESSIVE BECAUSE CLIMATOLOGICALLY WE ARE AT OUR COLDEST POINT OF
THE YEAR. THE ZENITH AND NADIR OF OUR ANNUAL TEMPERATURES OCCUR
ROUGHLY 5 WEEKS AFTER THE CORRESPONDING SOLSTICE. BY THE START OF
FEBRUARY...OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING.

THE COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO A DEEPENING
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL
DIRECT COLD AIR FROM NUNAVUT AND THE CANADIAN ARCTIC ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. LUCKILY FOR OUR REGION...THE COLD WILL
NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AS THE ONLY REAL STORM
SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. MORE ON THAT IN A MOMENT.

AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD...A BOMBOGENETIC LOW WILL BE PUSHING NORTH
ALONG THE COAST OF QUEBEC WHILE A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LATTER OF THESE FEATURES
WAS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR FORECAST AREA
TO BRING US A FEW INCHES OF SNOW INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...SFC BASED RIDGING BETWEEN THE STORM SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER OVER OUR REGION WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME
NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AN FLURRIES. INITIALLY...A COLD 310 FLOW
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES...BUT WITH A CAP UNDER 6K FT AND A SERIOUS LACK OF SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE...SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO UNDER AN INCH. AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH.
THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW SOUTH OF LK ONTARIO SHOULD KEEP A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WHILE HELPING TO GENERATE FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE NEARLY
STEADY IN THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS. THESE READINGS WERE LOWERED BY
SOME 5 DEG FROM CONTINUITY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST TO THE CAROLINAS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY. AGAIN...THIS WILL KEEP A SHIELD OF
STEADY SNOW TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. GIVEN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...MOST AREAS
WILL BE FREE FROM ANY LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH THE MERCURY PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND WELL BELOW ZERO EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. AGAIN...THESE READINGS HAVE BEEN LOWERED FROM CONTINUITY.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY AS GENERAL RIDGING
WILL BE FOUND OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH MORE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER...ALBEIT COLD WITH TEMPERATURES
NOT CLIMBING OUT OF THE TEENS (SINGLE DIGITS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY).

WHILE ANOTHER DEEP COASTAL STORM IS FORECAST CHURN UP THE NORTHEAST
COAST ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE
TO NOSE BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP VERY COLD
IN PLACE...WITH A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ENCOURAGING SOME PESKY LOW
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER THE BULK OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MODERATING OF THE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DO NOT
LET THIS FOOL YOU THOUGH...AS AT THE SAME TIME...OLD MAN WINTER WILL
BE SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ARCTIC INTRUSION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA.

SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC WHEN WE OPEN THIS PERIOD...BUT AS WE PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...A LARGE SLUG OF THIS FRIGID AIR WILL BREAK
LOOSE AND PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CANADA. IN FACT...
THERE IS A SUGGESTION FROM MANY OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS THAT THE NOTORIOUS POLAR VORTEX WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH
OVER ONTARIO. IF THIS WERE TO COME TO FRUITION...THEN THE START OF
FEBRUARY COULD CERTAINLY FEATURE SOME OF THE COLDEST WEATHER THAT WE
WOULD EXPERIENCE THIS WINTER. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK OVER
MOST OF THE REGION AND EXTENDING BACK UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR
AND IFR WITHIN THE STRATUS DECK...WITH IFR FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALSO EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. SCATTERED FLURRIES
WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET TO
INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST.

TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE MORE LIKELY EAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME
MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF
MVFR VSBY WITH SPOTTY IFR IN ANY SOMEWHAT MORE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL END BY MID TO LATE
EVENING AS THE AIRMASS GROWS COLDER ALOFT. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MAINLY LOW END MVFR AND IFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE COMING
UP TO MVFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE.

ON SUNDAY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN THE MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBY
BEFORE ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL RUN MVFR ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MVFR ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
SAGS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...THEN WILL
VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. WITH WINDS AND WAVES
LIKELY TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS ON LAKE ONTARIO FROM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THAT LAKE AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JJR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 241756
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1256 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THEN FOLLOWING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A THICK LOW STRATUS OVERCAST
COVERING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
ALLEGANY AND LEWIS COUNTIES WHERE SOME BONUS SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE STRATUS MOVES IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS OUR REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL THEN COME TO AN END LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PRESSES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AND AS
BOTH SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MODEST LEAD SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
OF THESE NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE LAKES.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING AS PRECIP BEGINS TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO DUE TO A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE OFF THE LAKES AND FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE TERRAIN JUST EAST OF THE LAKES. NAM BUFKIT
PROFILES ARE VERY CLOSE TO NOT BEING COLD ENOUGH IN THE CLOUD LAYER
TO SUPPORT ICE NUCLEI...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE CLOUD LAYER
NEAR -8C. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND MAY NEED TO ADD FZDZ INTO
THE FORECAST AND ISSUE A SHORT LIVED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SLICK SPOTS. BY MID TO LATE EVENING
MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN AND CLOUD TOP TEMPS WILL COOL...INTRODUCING ICE
NUCLEI BACK INTO THE CLOUD LAYER AND ENDING THE CHANCES OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL GRADUALLY
SAG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/
LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FURTHER AUGMENT THE EXISTING
FORCING REFERRED TO ABOVE...THEREBY LEADING TO THE BEST OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. EXPECT THESE
TO BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN NATURE...WITH THE GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION AGAIN EXPECTED NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPING AND LAKE-DRIVEN ENHANCEMENT OF
THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE FIELD. IN THESE LATTER AREAS HAVE GONE
WITH A ROUND OF HIGH LIKELY POPS...ALONG WITH SOME MODEST ACCUMS OF
AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS THERE MOST LIKELY TO
FOCUS ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE...ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE BULK OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME BETWEEN EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GENERALLY DIMINISHING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S TODAY...WITH TEMPS THEN SHARPLY DROPPING OFF AS COLD
ADVECTION SETS UP FOLLOWING THE FROPA TONIGHT. BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY
MORNING...EXPECT READINGS TO HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...AND TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES ARE GUARANTEED TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN THE MERCURY WILL BE SOME
10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN WHERE IT SHOULD BE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
IMPRESSIVE BECAUSE CLIMATOLOGICALLY WE ARE AT OUR COLDEST POINT OF
THE YEAR. THE ZENITH AND NADIR OF OUR ANNUAL TEMPERATURES OCCUR
ROUGHLY 5 WEEKS AFTER THE CORRESPONDING SOLSTICE. BY THE START OF
FEBRUARY...OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING.

THE COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO A DEEPENING
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL
DIRECT COLD AIR FROM NUNAVUT AND THE CANADIAN ARCTIC ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. LUCKILY FOR OUR REGION...THE COLD WILL
NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AS THE ONLY REAL STORM
SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. MORE ON THAT IN A MOMENT.

AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD...A BOMBOGENETIC LOW WILL BE PUSHING NORTH
ALONG THE COAST OF QUEBEC WHILE A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LATTER OF THESE FEATURES
WAS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR FORECAST AREA
TO BRING US A FEW INCHES OF SNOW INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...SFC BASED RIDGING BETWEEN THE STORM SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER OVER OUR REGION WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME
NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AN FLURRIES. INITIALLY...A COLD 310 FLOW
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES...BUT WITH A CAP UNDER 6K FT AND A SERIOUS LACK OF SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE...SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO UNDER AN INCH. AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH.
THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW SOUTH OF LK ONTARIO SHOULD KEEP A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WHILE HELPING TO GENERATE FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE NEARLY
STEADY IN THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS. THESE READINGS WERE LOWERED BY
SOME 5 DEG FROM CONTINUITY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST TO THE CAROLINAS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY. AGAIN...THIS WILL KEEP A SHIELD OF
STEADY SNOW TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. GIVEN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...MOST AREAS
WILL BE FREE FROM ANY LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH THE MERCURY PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND WELL BELOW ZERO EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. AGAIN...THESE READINGS HAVE BEEN LOWERED FROM CONTINUITY.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY AS GENERAL RIDGING
WILL BE FOUND OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH MORE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER...ALBEIT COLD WITH TEMPERATURES
NOT CLIMBING OUT OF THE TEENS (SINGLE DIGITS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY).

WHILE ANOTHER DEEP COASTAL STORM IS FORECAST CHURN UP THE NORTHEAST
COAST ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE
TO NOSE BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP VERY COLD
IN PLACE...WITH A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ENCOURAGING SOME PESKY LOW
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER THE BULK OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MODERATING OF THE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DO NOT
LET THIS FOOL YOU THOUGH...AS AT THE SAME TIME...OLD MAN WINTER WILL
BE SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ARCTIC INTRUSION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA.

SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC WHEN WE OPEN THIS PERIOD...BUT AS WE PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...A LARGE SLUG OF THIS FRIGID AIR WILL BREAK
LOOSE AND PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CANADA. IN FACT...
THERE IS A SUGGESTION FROM MANY OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS THAT THE NOTORIOUS POLAR VORTEX WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH
OVER ONTARIO. IF THIS WERE TO COME TO FRUITION...THEN THE START OF
FEBRUARY COULD CERTAINLY FEATURE SOME OF THE COLDEST WEATHER THAT WE
WOULD EXPERIENCE THIS WINTER. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK OVER
MOST OF THE REGION AND EXTENDING BACK UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR
AND IFR WITHIN THE STRATUS DECK...WITH IFR FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALSO EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. SCATTERED FLURRIES
WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET TO
INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST.

TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE MORE LIKELY EAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME
MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF
MVFR VSBY WITH SPOTTY IFR IN ANY SOMEWHAT MORE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL END BY MID TO LATE
EVENING AS THE AIRMASS GROWS COLDER ALOFT. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MAINLY LOW END MVFR AND IFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE COMING
UP TO MVFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE.

ON SUNDAY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN THE MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBY
BEFORE ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL RUN MVFR ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MVFR ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
SAGS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...THEN WILL
VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. WITH WINDS AND WAVES
LIKELY TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS ON LAKE ONTARIO FROM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THAT LAKE AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JJR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 241756
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1256 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THEN FOLLOWING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A THICK LOW STRATUS OVERCAST
COVERING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
ALLEGANY AND LEWIS COUNTIES WHERE SOME BONUS SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE STRATUS MOVES IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS OUR REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL THEN COME TO AN END LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PRESSES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AND AS
BOTH SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MODEST LEAD SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
OF THESE NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE LAKES.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING AS PRECIP BEGINS TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO DUE TO A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE OFF THE LAKES AND FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE TERRAIN JUST EAST OF THE LAKES. NAM BUFKIT
PROFILES ARE VERY CLOSE TO NOT BEING COLD ENOUGH IN THE CLOUD LAYER
TO SUPPORT ICE NUCLEI...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE CLOUD LAYER
NEAR -8C. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND MAY NEED TO ADD FZDZ INTO
THE FORECAST AND ISSUE A SHORT LIVED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SLICK SPOTS. BY MID TO LATE EVENING
MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN AND CLOUD TOP TEMPS WILL COOL...INTRODUCING ICE
NUCLEI BACK INTO THE CLOUD LAYER AND ENDING THE CHANCES OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL GRADUALLY
SAG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/
LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FURTHER AUGMENT THE EXISTING
FORCING REFERRED TO ABOVE...THEREBY LEADING TO THE BEST OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. EXPECT THESE
TO BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN NATURE...WITH THE GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION AGAIN EXPECTED NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPING AND LAKE-DRIVEN ENHANCEMENT OF
THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE FIELD. IN THESE LATTER AREAS HAVE GONE
WITH A ROUND OF HIGH LIKELY POPS...ALONG WITH SOME MODEST ACCUMS OF
AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS THERE MOST LIKELY TO
FOCUS ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE...ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE BULK OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME BETWEEN EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GENERALLY DIMINISHING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S TODAY...WITH TEMPS THEN SHARPLY DROPPING OFF AS COLD
ADVECTION SETS UP FOLLOWING THE FROPA TONIGHT. BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY
MORNING...EXPECT READINGS TO HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...AND TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES ARE GUARANTEED TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN THE MERCURY WILL BE SOME
10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN WHERE IT SHOULD BE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
IMPRESSIVE BECAUSE CLIMATOLOGICALLY WE ARE AT OUR COLDEST POINT OF
THE YEAR. THE ZENITH AND NADIR OF OUR ANNUAL TEMPERATURES OCCUR
ROUGHLY 5 WEEKS AFTER THE CORRESPONDING SOLSTICE. BY THE START OF
FEBRUARY...OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING.

THE COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO A DEEPENING
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL
DIRECT COLD AIR FROM NUNAVUT AND THE CANADIAN ARCTIC ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. LUCKILY FOR OUR REGION...THE COLD WILL
NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AS THE ONLY REAL STORM
SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. MORE ON THAT IN A MOMENT.

AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD...A BOMBOGENETIC LOW WILL BE PUSHING NORTH
ALONG THE COAST OF QUEBEC WHILE A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LATTER OF THESE FEATURES
WAS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR FORECAST AREA
TO BRING US A FEW INCHES OF SNOW INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...SFC BASED RIDGING BETWEEN THE STORM SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER OVER OUR REGION WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME
NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AN FLURRIES. INITIALLY...A COLD 310 FLOW
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES...BUT WITH A CAP UNDER 6K FT AND A SERIOUS LACK OF SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE...SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO UNDER AN INCH. AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH.
THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW SOUTH OF LK ONTARIO SHOULD KEEP A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WHILE HELPING TO GENERATE FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE NEARLY
STEADY IN THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS. THESE READINGS WERE LOWERED BY
SOME 5 DEG FROM CONTINUITY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST TO THE CAROLINAS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY. AGAIN...THIS WILL KEEP A SHIELD OF
STEADY SNOW TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. GIVEN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...MOST AREAS
WILL BE FREE FROM ANY LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH THE MERCURY PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND WELL BELOW ZERO EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. AGAIN...THESE READINGS HAVE BEEN LOWERED FROM CONTINUITY.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY AS GENERAL RIDGING
WILL BE FOUND OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH MORE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER...ALBEIT COLD WITH TEMPERATURES
NOT CLIMBING OUT OF THE TEENS (SINGLE DIGITS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY).

WHILE ANOTHER DEEP COASTAL STORM IS FORECAST CHURN UP THE NORTHEAST
COAST ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE
TO NOSE BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP VERY COLD
IN PLACE...WITH A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ENCOURAGING SOME PESKY LOW
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER THE BULK OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MODERATING OF THE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DO NOT
LET THIS FOOL YOU THOUGH...AS AT THE SAME TIME...OLD MAN WINTER WILL
BE SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ARCTIC INTRUSION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA.

SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC WHEN WE OPEN THIS PERIOD...BUT AS WE PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...A LARGE SLUG OF THIS FRIGID AIR WILL BREAK
LOOSE AND PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CANADA. IN FACT...
THERE IS A SUGGESTION FROM MANY OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS THAT THE NOTORIOUS POLAR VORTEX WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH
OVER ONTARIO. IF THIS WERE TO COME TO FRUITION...THEN THE START OF
FEBRUARY COULD CERTAINLY FEATURE SOME OF THE COLDEST WEATHER THAT WE
WOULD EXPERIENCE THIS WINTER. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK OVER
MOST OF THE REGION AND EXTENDING BACK UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR
AND IFR WITHIN THE STRATUS DECK...WITH IFR FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALSO EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. SCATTERED FLURRIES
WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET TO
INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST.

TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE MORE LIKELY EAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME
MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF
MVFR VSBY WITH SPOTTY IFR IN ANY SOMEWHAT MORE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL END BY MID TO LATE
EVENING AS THE AIRMASS GROWS COLDER ALOFT. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MAINLY LOW END MVFR AND IFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE COMING
UP TO MVFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE.

ON SUNDAY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN THE MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBY
BEFORE ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL RUN MVFR ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MVFR ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
SAGS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...THEN WILL
VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. WITH WINDS AND WAVES
LIKELY TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS ON LAKE ONTARIO FROM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THAT LAKE AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JJR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 241756
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1256 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THEN FOLLOWING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A THICK LOW STRATUS OVERCAST
COVERING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
ALLEGANY AND LEWIS COUNTIES WHERE SOME BONUS SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE STRATUS MOVES IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS OUR REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL THEN COME TO AN END LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PRESSES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AND AS
BOTH SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MODEST LEAD SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
OF THESE NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE LAKES.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING AS PRECIP BEGINS TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO DUE TO A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE OFF THE LAKES AND FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE TERRAIN JUST EAST OF THE LAKES. NAM BUFKIT
PROFILES ARE VERY CLOSE TO NOT BEING COLD ENOUGH IN THE CLOUD LAYER
TO SUPPORT ICE NUCLEI...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE CLOUD LAYER
NEAR -8C. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND MAY NEED TO ADD FZDZ INTO
THE FORECAST AND ISSUE A SHORT LIVED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SLICK SPOTS. BY MID TO LATE EVENING
MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN AND CLOUD TOP TEMPS WILL COOL...INTRODUCING ICE
NUCLEI BACK INTO THE CLOUD LAYER AND ENDING THE CHANCES OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL GRADUALLY
SAG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/
LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FURTHER AUGMENT THE EXISTING
FORCING REFERRED TO ABOVE...THEREBY LEADING TO THE BEST OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. EXPECT THESE
TO BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN NATURE...WITH THE GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION AGAIN EXPECTED NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPING AND LAKE-DRIVEN ENHANCEMENT OF
THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE FIELD. IN THESE LATTER AREAS HAVE GONE
WITH A ROUND OF HIGH LIKELY POPS...ALONG WITH SOME MODEST ACCUMS OF
AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS THERE MOST LIKELY TO
FOCUS ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE...ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE BULK OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME BETWEEN EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GENERALLY DIMINISHING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S TODAY...WITH TEMPS THEN SHARPLY DROPPING OFF AS COLD
ADVECTION SETS UP FOLLOWING THE FROPA TONIGHT. BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY
MORNING...EXPECT READINGS TO HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...AND TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES ARE GUARANTEED TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN THE MERCURY WILL BE SOME
10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN WHERE IT SHOULD BE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
IMPRESSIVE BECAUSE CLIMATOLOGICALLY WE ARE AT OUR COLDEST POINT OF
THE YEAR. THE ZENITH AND NADIR OF OUR ANNUAL TEMPERATURES OCCUR
ROUGHLY 5 WEEKS AFTER THE CORRESPONDING SOLSTICE. BY THE START OF
FEBRUARY...OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING.

THE COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO A DEEPENING
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL
DIRECT COLD AIR FROM NUNAVUT AND THE CANADIAN ARCTIC ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. LUCKILY FOR OUR REGION...THE COLD WILL
NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AS THE ONLY REAL STORM
SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. MORE ON THAT IN A MOMENT.

AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD...A BOMBOGENETIC LOW WILL BE PUSHING NORTH
ALONG THE COAST OF QUEBEC WHILE A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LATTER OF THESE FEATURES
WAS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR FORECAST AREA
TO BRING US A FEW INCHES OF SNOW INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...SFC BASED RIDGING BETWEEN THE STORM SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER OVER OUR REGION WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME
NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AN FLURRIES. INITIALLY...A COLD 310 FLOW
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES...BUT WITH A CAP UNDER 6K FT AND A SERIOUS LACK OF SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE...SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO UNDER AN INCH. AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH.
THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW SOUTH OF LK ONTARIO SHOULD KEEP A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WHILE HELPING TO GENERATE FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE NEARLY
STEADY IN THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS. THESE READINGS WERE LOWERED BY
SOME 5 DEG FROM CONTINUITY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST TO THE CAROLINAS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY. AGAIN...THIS WILL KEEP A SHIELD OF
STEADY SNOW TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. GIVEN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...MOST AREAS
WILL BE FREE FROM ANY LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH THE MERCURY PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND WELL BELOW ZERO EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. AGAIN...THESE READINGS HAVE BEEN LOWERED FROM CONTINUITY.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY AS GENERAL RIDGING
WILL BE FOUND OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH MORE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER...ALBEIT COLD WITH TEMPERATURES
NOT CLIMBING OUT OF THE TEENS (SINGLE DIGITS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY).

WHILE ANOTHER DEEP COASTAL STORM IS FORECAST CHURN UP THE NORTHEAST
COAST ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE
TO NOSE BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP VERY COLD
IN PLACE...WITH A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ENCOURAGING SOME PESKY LOW
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER THE BULK OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MODERATING OF THE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DO NOT
LET THIS FOOL YOU THOUGH...AS AT THE SAME TIME...OLD MAN WINTER WILL
BE SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ARCTIC INTRUSION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA.

SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC WHEN WE OPEN THIS PERIOD...BUT AS WE PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...A LARGE SLUG OF THIS FRIGID AIR WILL BREAK
LOOSE AND PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CANADA. IN FACT...
THERE IS A SUGGESTION FROM MANY OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS THAT THE NOTORIOUS POLAR VORTEX WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH
OVER ONTARIO. IF THIS WERE TO COME TO FRUITION...THEN THE START OF
FEBRUARY COULD CERTAINLY FEATURE SOME OF THE COLDEST WEATHER THAT WE
WOULD EXPERIENCE THIS WINTER. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK OVER
MOST OF THE REGION AND EXTENDING BACK UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR
AND IFR WITHIN THE STRATUS DECK...WITH IFR FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALSO EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. SCATTERED FLURRIES
WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET TO
INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST.

TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE MORE LIKELY EAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME
MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF
MVFR VSBY WITH SPOTTY IFR IN ANY SOMEWHAT MORE PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL END BY MID TO LATE
EVENING AS THE AIRMASS GROWS COLDER ALOFT. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MAINLY LOW END MVFR AND IFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE COMING
UP TO MVFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE.

ON SUNDAY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN THE MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBY
BEFORE ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL RUN MVFR ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MVFR ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
SAGS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...THEN WILL
VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. WITH WINDS AND WAVES
LIKELY TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS ON LAKE ONTARIO FROM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THAT LAKE AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JJR





000
FXUS61 KBGM 241754
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1254 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. THE STORM THAT
CAUSED THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND IT, COOLER
WEATHER AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOW IS NOW SITTING A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF CAPE COD
BRINGING WINTRY PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW, SLEET AND RAIN TO NEW
ENGLAND. LGT SNOW HAS ALL BUT EXITED CWA RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. SNOW
REPORTS RANGE FM A DUSTING IN THE SRN TIER OF NY TO AS MUCH AS ISOLD
7-8 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-84.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BRIEFLY MAKING AN APPEARANCE AT SFC-H8 HAS ALLOWED
CLRNG TO DVLP ACRS CNTRL NY AND WL MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACRS ALL OF
CWA THIS AFTN AS IT MVS SOUTH. HWVR, SKIES WL QUICKLY CLD BACK UP
AHD OF IMPENDING CDFNT WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FM CNTRL QUEBEC
INTO THE UPR LAKES AND DROPPING SOUTH.

LGT SNOW SHOWERS WL DVLP AHD OF BNDRY LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG. NOT
EXPECTING FRONT TO GET INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THUS THINK
THAT CHC POPS LOOK BEST THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS BNDRY SLIDES
SOUTH AWAY FM LAKE EXPECTING FLURRIES AND/OR ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WL
DROP DOWN INTO SRN TIER BY DAYBREAK. JUST A DUSTING AT BEST EXPECTED
RIGHT NOW.

H8 TEMPS WL NOT DROP ENUF TO PRODUCE ANY ORGANIZED LK EFFECT SNOWS
TONIGHT WITH DELTA T`S EXPECTED TO BE 10C THRU MRNG HRS. THUS THINK
SCTD SNOW SHOWERS HANDLE IT BEST AT THIS POINT IN TIME. AFT FROPA
BTWN 06Z AND 09Z FLOW WL ALIGN ITSELF ARND 300 DEGREES WITH AN INCH
OR TWO EXPECTED BY MRNG ACRS FAVORED LK ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR AND A LOWERING INVERSION ENDS THE THREAT. MAIN CHANGE TO
THIS PERIOD WAS TO PUSH PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
FARTHER SOUTH BASED ON MODEL TRENDS. SNOW CHANCES ARE HELD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 06Z MONDAY, AND MAINLY JUST ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND
PART OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THIS IS A GOOD 50 MILES OR SO
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WE HAD PREVIOUSLY. TWO BIG DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS NEXT STORM ARE 1) STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, WHICH
WILL BLOCK THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF IT. 2) THE STORM IS A CLIPPER
AND COMING FROM THE WEST, SO IT WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO TAP A LOT OF MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV TRENDED SOUTH FOR UPCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM SUN
NGT/MONDAY. STRONG 1025MB CANADIAN HIGH WL BUILD SOUTH AND SHUNT
SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. 12Z GFS, CMC AND EC TRACK IT CLOSE TO THE
PIEDMONT OF NC WITH 12Z NAM NOW GOING THRU THE HEART OF VA. H5 WV IS
STILL OFFSHORE AND WILL BE COMING INTO NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA
TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW HV LOWERED POPS FOR SUN NGT/MON WITH
SYSTEM NOW LOOKING TO BE A NEAR-MISS FOR CWA.

SFC HIGH WL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN CLDR AIR WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS
DROPPING DOWN TO NR 520DM. H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP BLO -10C WL
YIELD LOWS MON MRNG IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE TEENS ON MONDAY AS NRLY FLOW CONTS TO SUPPLY CLD AIR.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WL BE PRESENT OVR THE AREA STARTING MON
NGT AND HV DROPPED POPS TO SLGT CHC JUST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
NERLY FLOW WL BE PRESENT DRG THIS TIME WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA STARTING THUR MRNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM IS PUSHING EAST OUT OF NE PA THIS
AFTERNOON AND COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION. SNOW SHOWERS AT KAVP ARE EXPECTED TO END
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. WE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER... THUS WE WILL SEE A
FEW HOURS OF VFR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST
PA. COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AROUND 09Z AND MAY GENERATE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-MON...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE -SN AT KAVP AS CLIPPER PASSES.

MON NGT-TUE...MINOR RESTRICTIONS FROM LAKE CLOUDS AND/OR -SN...MAINLY
NY TERMINALS.

TUE NGT-WED...MAINLY VFR.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...KAH






000
FXUS61 KBGM 241754
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1254 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. THE STORM THAT
CAUSED THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND IT, COOLER
WEATHER AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
SFC LOW IS NOW SITTING A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF CAPE COD
BRINGING WINTRY PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW, SLEET AND RAIN TO NEW
ENGLAND. LGT SNOW HAS ALL BUT EXITED CWA RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. SNOW
REPORTS RANGE FM A DUSTING IN THE SRN TIER OF NY TO AS MUCH AS ISOLD
7-8 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-84.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BRIEFLY MAKING AN APPEARANCE AT SFC-H8 HAS ALLOWED
CLRNG TO DVLP ACRS CNTRL NY AND WL MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACRS ALL OF
CWA THIS AFTN AS IT MVS SOUTH. HWVR, SKIES WL QUICKLY CLD BACK UP
AHD OF IMPENDING CDFNT WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FM CNTRL QUEBEC
INTO THE UPR LAKES AND DROPPING SOUTH.

LGT SNOW SHOWERS WL DVLP AHD OF BNDRY LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG. NOT
EXPECTING FRONT TO GET INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THUS THINK
THAT CHC POPS LOOK BEST THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS BNDRY SLIDES
SOUTH AWAY FM LAKE EXPECTING FLURRIES AND/OR ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WL
DROP DOWN INTO SRN TIER BY DAYBREAK. JUST A DUSTING AT BEST EXPECTED
RIGHT NOW.

H8 TEMPS WL NOT DROP ENUF TO PRODUCE ANY ORGANIZED LK EFFECT SNOWS
TONIGHT WITH DELTA T`S EXPECTED TO BE 10C THRU MRNG HRS. THUS THINK
SCTD SNOW SHOWERS HANDLE IT BEST AT THIS POINT IN TIME. AFT FROPA
BTWN 06Z AND 09Z FLOW WL ALIGN ITSELF ARND 300 DEGREES WITH AN INCH
OR TWO EXPECTED BY MRNG ACRS FAVORED LK ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR AND A LOWERING INVERSION ENDS THE THREAT. MAIN CHANGE TO
THIS PERIOD WAS TO PUSH PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
FARTHER SOUTH BASED ON MODEL TRENDS. SNOW CHANCES ARE HELD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 06Z MONDAY, AND MAINLY JUST ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND
PART OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THIS IS A GOOD 50 MILES OR SO
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WE HAD PREVIOUSLY. TWO BIG DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS NEXT STORM ARE 1) STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, WHICH
WILL BLOCK THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF IT. 2) THE STORM IS A CLIPPER
AND COMING FROM THE WEST, SO IT WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO TAP A LOT OF MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV TRENDED SOUTH FOR UPCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM SUN
NGT/MONDAY. STRONG 1025MB CANADIAN HIGH WL BUILD SOUTH AND SHUNT
SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. 12Z GFS, CMC AND EC TRACK IT CLOSE TO THE
PIEDMONT OF NC WITH 12Z NAM NOW GOING THRU THE HEART OF VA. H5 WV IS
STILL OFFSHORE AND WILL BE COMING INTO NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA
TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW HV LOWERED POPS FOR SUN NGT/MON WITH
SYSTEM NOW LOOKING TO BE A NEAR-MISS FOR CWA.

SFC HIGH WL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN CLDR AIR WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS
DROPPING DOWN TO NR 520DM. H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP BLO -10C WL
YIELD LOWS MON MRNG IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE TEENS ON MONDAY AS NRLY FLOW CONTS TO SUPPLY CLD AIR.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WL BE PRESENT OVR THE AREA STARTING MON
NGT AND HV DROPPED POPS TO SLGT CHC JUST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
NERLY FLOW WL BE PRESENT DRG THIS TIME WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA STARTING THUR MRNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM IS PUSHING EAST OUT OF NE PA THIS
AFTERNOON AND COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION. SNOW SHOWERS AT KAVP ARE EXPECTED TO END
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. WE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER... THUS WE WILL SEE A
FEW HOURS OF VFR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST
PA. COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AROUND 09Z AND MAY GENERATE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-MON...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE -SN AT KAVP AS CLIPPER PASSES.

MON NGT-TUE...MINOR RESTRICTIONS FROM LAKE CLOUDS AND/OR -SN...MAINLY
NY TERMINALS.

TUE NGT-WED...MAINLY VFR.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...KAH







000
FXUS61 KBGM 241753
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1253 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. THE STORM THAT
CAUSED THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND IT, COOLER
WEATHER AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...
SNOW IS LIGHTENING UP AND SLOWLY PULLING SOUTH AND EAST AS OF THIS
TIME. EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE THRU MOST OF THE MRNG HRS AND
CURRENT GRIDS HAVE AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THIS, THUS ONLY CHG MADE
WAS TO WORD CHC POPS AS LGT SNOW.

HV RECEIVED REPORTS OF ISOLD 8" AMNTS ARND THE SCRANTON AREA WHICH
IS REASONABLE AS THIS LOOKED TO BE WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS
WENT THRU FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MRNG. WL LET ADVISORIES GO THRU
NOON AND EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.

PREV DISCO BLO...

300 AM UPDATE...
A VERY SHARP LINE ON RADAR CONTINUES WITH NO SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY, WITH MODERATE SNOW JUST SOUTH OF THE NY/PA
LINE. MAIN UPDATES INCLUDE EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
INTO SULLIVAN COUNTY, NY, AND INCREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTHERN PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY. WE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A REPORT
OF 3" FROM MONROE COUNTY, PA (THANKS TO THE PHILLY OFFICE). WITH
THAT REPORT COMBINED WITH THE MESOSCALE BANDING SHOWING UP ON
RADAR, I INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE 4" TO 8" RANGE FOR
MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA. STILL EXPECT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY OR ROUGHLY FROM
NEAR WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON, SOUTH AND EAST. THIS MATCHES UP WELL
WITH RADAR TRENDS BEING MORE STRATIFORM DUE SOUTH OF THESE AREAS,
WITH MORE CONVECTIVE/SPLOTCHY RETURNS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOWFALL FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY AS WE WILL
LIKELY GO FROM A FEW INCHES DO JUST A DUSTING OVER THE SPAN OF A
FEW MILES. SNOW DIMINISHES RAPIDLY BY LATE MORNING, AS THE STORM
CAUSING THE SNOW LIFTS UP THE COAST.

CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SCT. SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT ON A COOL,
NORTHWEST FLOW. A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR AND A LOWERING INVERSION ENDS THE THREAT. MAIN CHANGE TO
THIS PERIOD WAS TO PUSH PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
FARTHER SOUTH BASED ON MODEL TRENDS. SNOW CHANCES ARE HELD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 06Z MONDAY, AND MAINLY JUST ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND
PART OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THIS IS A GOOD 50 MILES OR SO
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WE HAD PREVIOUSLY. TWO BIG DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS NEXT STORM ARE 1) STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, WHICH
WILL BLOCK THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF IT. 2) THE STORM IS A CLIPPER
AND COMING FROM THE WEST, SO IT WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO TAP A LOT OF MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV TRENDED SOUTH FOR UPCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM SUN
NGT/MONDAY. STRONG 1025MB CANADIAN HIGH WL BUILD SOUTH AND SHUNT
SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. 12Z GFS, CMC AND EC TRACK IT CLOSE TO THE
PIEDMONT OF NC WITH 12Z NAM NOW GOING THRU THE HEART OF VA. H5 WV IS
STILL OFFSHORE AND WILL BE COMING INTO NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA
TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW HV LOWERED POPS FOR SUN NGT/MON WITH
SYSTEM NOW LOOKING TO BE A NEAR-MISS FOR CWA.

SFC HIGH WL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN CLDR AIR WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS
DROPPING DOWN TO NR 520DM. H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP BLO -10C WL
YIELD LOWS MON MRNG IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE TEENS ON MONDAY AS NRLY FLOW CONTS TO SUPPLY CLD AIR.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WL BE PRESENT OVR THE AREA STARTING MON
NGT AND HV DROPPED POPS TO SLGT CHC JUST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
NERLY FLOW WL BE PRESENT DRG THIS TIME WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA STARTING THUR MRNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM IS PUSHING EAST OUT OF NE PA THIS
AFTERNOON AND COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION. SNOW SHOWERS AT KAVP ARE EXPECTED TO END
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. WE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER... THUS WE WILL SEE A
FEW HOURS OF VFR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST
PA. COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AROUND 09Z AND MAY GENERATE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-MON...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE -SN AT KAVP AS CLIPPER PASSES.

MON NGT-TUE...MINOR RESTRICTIONS FROM LAKE CLOUDS AND/OR -SN...MAINLY
NY TERMINALS.

TUE NGT-WED...MAINLY VFR.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PVF
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...KAH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 241753
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1253 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. THE STORM THAT
CAUSED THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND IT, COOLER
WEATHER AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...
SNOW IS LIGHTENING UP AND SLOWLY PULLING SOUTH AND EAST AS OF THIS
TIME. EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE THRU MOST OF THE MRNG HRS AND
CURRENT GRIDS HAVE AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THIS, THUS ONLY CHG MADE
WAS TO WORD CHC POPS AS LGT SNOW.

HV RECEIVED REPORTS OF ISOLD 8" AMNTS ARND THE SCRANTON AREA WHICH
IS REASONABLE AS THIS LOOKED TO BE WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS
WENT THRU FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MRNG. WL LET ADVISORIES GO THRU
NOON AND EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.

PREV DISCO BLO...

300 AM UPDATE...
A VERY SHARP LINE ON RADAR CONTINUES WITH NO SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY, WITH MODERATE SNOW JUST SOUTH OF THE NY/PA
LINE. MAIN UPDATES INCLUDE EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
INTO SULLIVAN COUNTY, NY, AND INCREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTHERN PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY. WE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A REPORT
OF 3" FROM MONROE COUNTY, PA (THANKS TO THE PHILLY OFFICE). WITH
THAT REPORT COMBINED WITH THE MESOSCALE BANDING SHOWING UP ON
RADAR, I INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE 4" TO 8" RANGE FOR
MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA. STILL EXPECT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY OR ROUGHLY FROM
NEAR WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON, SOUTH AND EAST. THIS MATCHES UP WELL
WITH RADAR TRENDS BEING MORE STRATIFORM DUE SOUTH OF THESE AREAS,
WITH MORE CONVECTIVE/SPLOTCHY RETURNS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOWFALL FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY AS WE WILL
LIKELY GO FROM A FEW INCHES DO JUST A DUSTING OVER THE SPAN OF A
FEW MILES. SNOW DIMINISHES RAPIDLY BY LATE MORNING, AS THE STORM
CAUSING THE SNOW LIFTS UP THE COAST.

CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SCT. SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT ON A COOL,
NORTHWEST FLOW. A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR AND A LOWERING INVERSION ENDS THE THREAT. MAIN CHANGE TO
THIS PERIOD WAS TO PUSH PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
FARTHER SOUTH BASED ON MODEL TRENDS. SNOW CHANCES ARE HELD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 06Z MONDAY, AND MAINLY JUST ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND
PART OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THIS IS A GOOD 50 MILES OR SO
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WE HAD PREVIOUSLY. TWO BIG DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS NEXT STORM ARE 1) STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, WHICH
WILL BLOCK THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF IT. 2) THE STORM IS A CLIPPER
AND COMING FROM THE WEST, SO IT WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO TAP A LOT OF MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV TRENDED SOUTH FOR UPCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM SUN
NGT/MONDAY. STRONG 1025MB CANADIAN HIGH WL BUILD SOUTH AND SHUNT
SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. 12Z GFS, CMC AND EC TRACK IT CLOSE TO THE
PIEDMONT OF NC WITH 12Z NAM NOW GOING THRU THE HEART OF VA. H5 WV IS
STILL OFFSHORE AND WILL BE COMING INTO NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA
TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW HV LOWERED POPS FOR SUN NGT/MON WITH
SYSTEM NOW LOOKING TO BE A NEAR-MISS FOR CWA.

SFC HIGH WL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN CLDR AIR WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS
DROPPING DOWN TO NR 520DM. H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP BLO -10C WL
YIELD LOWS MON MRNG IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE TEENS ON MONDAY AS NRLY FLOW CONTS TO SUPPLY CLD AIR.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WL BE PRESENT OVR THE AREA STARTING MON
NGT AND HV DROPPED POPS TO SLGT CHC JUST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
NERLY FLOW WL BE PRESENT DRG THIS TIME WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA STARTING THUR MRNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM IS PUSHING EAST OUT OF NE PA THIS
AFTERNOON AND COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION. SNOW SHOWERS AT KAVP ARE EXPECTED TO END
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. WE WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER... THUS WE WILL SEE A
FEW HOURS OF VFR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST
PA. COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AROUND 09Z AND MAY GENERATE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-MON...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE -SN AT KAVP AS CLIPPER PASSES.

MON NGT-TUE...MINOR RESTRICTIONS FROM LAKE CLOUDS AND/OR -SN...MAINLY
NY TERMINALS.

TUE NGT-WED...MAINLY VFR.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PVF
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...KAH









000
FXUS61 KBTV 241731
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1231 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ARCTIC COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1220 PM EST SATURDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST AS OF THIS UPDATE. COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS A WEAK
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES AND THE
SPRINGFIELD OB IS REPORTING LIGHT SNOW SO I CONTINUED THE
INCREASE IN POPS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE 1-2 INCHES PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD WORK OUT
JUST FINE SO I LEFT THAT ALONE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA LOOK IN SHAPE TO WARM IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH BTV
ALREADY UP TO 34 AND PBG AT 32. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LEFT
ALONE AS IT IS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO CROSSES
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOME DECENT VORTICITY
ADVECTION. MINS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES HANG AROUND TWENTY AS FRONT
TAKES THE LONGEST TO REACH THERE. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THEN WIND DOWN TOWARDS MORNING. ONLY EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE AREA FROM CANADA BRINGING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. MAY
SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE DAYTIME
HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
COLDER OF THE TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE...SOME -20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EST SATURDAY...QUIET...COLD AND GENERALLY DRY MID-
WINTER CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME AS BROAD LONGWAVE POLAR TROUGH REMAINS ATOP THE
NORTHEAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED BENEATH. DID OFFER AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHSN FAR EAST/SOUTH DURING TUESDAY AS
OFFSHORE SYSTEM PASSES NEAR THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK. THIS IS MAINLY
OUT OF RESPECT FOR MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHICH SHOW A
SOMEWHAT BROADER WESTERN EXTENT TO THE QPF FIELD OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THIS
MORNING`S UKMET...GFS AND GEM IS FOR A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST AND
THIS IS WHAT I`LL LEAN TOWARD...ESP SINCE BENCHMARK SYSTEMS ARE
USUALLY MINIMAL PLAYERS FOR US.

ONLY OTHER NOTABLE CHANCE OF PCPN WILL OCCUR LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVANCE
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN SHOWING BROAD CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
LOOKING AT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING REALLY ONLY
LIGHT SHSN HERE AND THERE WITH THE BEST SHOT OF ANY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS GIVEN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...BKN/OVC MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
AS OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
LITTLE IMPACT TO AREA TERMINALS. EXCEPTION AT KMSS TERMINAL WHERE
MORE PERSISTENT MVFR STRATUS EXPECTED WITH CIGS GENERALLY FROM
015-020 AGL. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 5-12 KTS. AFTER 22Z
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST WITH A
GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR AND INCREASING CHC OF
FLURRIES/SHSN. FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR IN THE 05-10Z TIME FRAME
WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241731
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1231 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ARCTIC COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1220 PM EST SATURDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST AS OF THIS UPDATE. COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS A WEAK
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES AND THE
SPRINGFIELD OB IS REPORTING LIGHT SNOW SO I CONTINUED THE
INCREASE IN POPS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE 1-2 INCHES PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD WORK OUT
JUST FINE SO I LEFT THAT ALONE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA LOOK IN SHAPE TO WARM IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH BTV
ALREADY UP TO 34 AND PBG AT 32. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LEFT
ALONE AS IT IS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO CROSSES
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOME DECENT VORTICITY
ADVECTION. MINS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES HANG AROUND TWENTY AS FRONT
TAKES THE LONGEST TO REACH THERE. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THEN WIND DOWN TOWARDS MORNING. ONLY EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE AREA FROM CANADA BRINGING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. MAY
SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE DAYTIME
HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
COLDER OF THE TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE...SOME -20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EST SATURDAY...QUIET...COLD AND GENERALLY DRY MID-
WINTER CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME AS BROAD LONGWAVE POLAR TROUGH REMAINS ATOP THE
NORTHEAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED BENEATH. DID OFFER AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHSN FAR EAST/SOUTH DURING TUESDAY AS
OFFSHORE SYSTEM PASSES NEAR THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK. THIS IS MAINLY
OUT OF RESPECT FOR MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHICH SHOW A
SOMEWHAT BROADER WESTERN EXTENT TO THE QPF FIELD OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THIS
MORNING`S UKMET...GFS AND GEM IS FOR A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST AND
THIS IS WHAT I`LL LEAN TOWARD...ESP SINCE BENCHMARK SYSTEMS ARE
USUALLY MINIMAL PLAYERS FOR US.

ONLY OTHER NOTABLE CHANCE OF PCPN WILL OCCUR LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVANCE
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN SHOWING BROAD CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
LOOKING AT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING REALLY ONLY
LIGHT SHSN HERE AND THERE WITH THE BEST SHOT OF ANY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS GIVEN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...BKN/OVC MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
AS OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
LITTLE IMPACT TO AREA TERMINALS. EXCEPTION AT KMSS TERMINAL WHERE
MORE PERSISTENT MVFR STRATUS EXPECTED WITH CIGS GENERALLY FROM
015-020 AGL. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 5-12 KTS. AFTER 22Z
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST WITH A
GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR AND INCREASING CHC OF
FLURRIES/SHSN. FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR IN THE 05-10Z TIME FRAME
WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241731
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1231 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ARCTIC COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1220 PM EST SATURDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST AS OF THIS UPDATE. COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS A WEAK
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES AND THE
SPRINGFIELD OB IS REPORTING LIGHT SNOW SO I CONTINUED THE
INCREASE IN POPS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE 1-2 INCHES PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD WORK OUT
JUST FINE SO I LEFT THAT ALONE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA LOOK IN SHAPE TO WARM IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH BTV
ALREADY UP TO 34 AND PBG AT 32. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LEFT
ALONE AS IT IS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO CROSSES
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOME DECENT VORTICITY
ADVECTION. MINS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES HANG AROUND TWENTY AS FRONT
TAKES THE LONGEST TO REACH THERE. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THEN WIND DOWN TOWARDS MORNING. ONLY EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE AREA FROM CANADA BRINGING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. MAY
SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE DAYTIME
HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
COLDER OF THE TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE...SOME -20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EST SATURDAY...QUIET...COLD AND GENERALLY DRY MID-
WINTER CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME AS BROAD LONGWAVE POLAR TROUGH REMAINS ATOP THE
NORTHEAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED BENEATH. DID OFFER AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHSN FAR EAST/SOUTH DURING TUESDAY AS
OFFSHORE SYSTEM PASSES NEAR THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK. THIS IS MAINLY
OUT OF RESPECT FOR MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHICH SHOW A
SOMEWHAT BROADER WESTERN EXTENT TO THE QPF FIELD OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THIS
MORNING`S UKMET...GFS AND GEM IS FOR A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST AND
THIS IS WHAT I`LL LEAN TOWARD...ESP SINCE BENCHMARK SYSTEMS ARE
USUALLY MINIMAL PLAYERS FOR US.

ONLY OTHER NOTABLE CHANCE OF PCPN WILL OCCUR LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVANCE
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN SHOWING BROAD CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
LOOKING AT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING REALLY ONLY
LIGHT SHSN HERE AND THERE WITH THE BEST SHOT OF ANY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS GIVEN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...BKN/OVC MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
AS OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
LITTLE IMPACT TO AREA TERMINALS. EXCEPTION AT KMSS TERMINAL WHERE
MORE PERSISTENT MVFR STRATUS EXPECTED WITH CIGS GENERALLY FROM
015-020 AGL. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 5-12 KTS. AFTER 22Z
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST WITH A
GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR AND INCREASING CHC OF
FLURRIES/SHSN. FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR IN THE 05-10Z TIME FRAME
WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241731
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1231 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ARCTIC COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1220 PM EST SATURDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST AS OF THIS UPDATE. COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS A WEAK
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES AND THE
SPRINGFIELD OB IS REPORTING LIGHT SNOW SO I CONTINUED THE
INCREASE IN POPS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE 1-2 INCHES PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD WORK OUT
JUST FINE SO I LEFT THAT ALONE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA LOOK IN SHAPE TO WARM IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH BTV
ALREADY UP TO 34 AND PBG AT 32. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LEFT
ALONE AS IT IS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO CROSSES
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOME DECENT VORTICITY
ADVECTION. MINS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES HANG AROUND TWENTY AS FRONT
TAKES THE LONGEST TO REACH THERE. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THEN WIND DOWN TOWARDS MORNING. ONLY EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE AREA FROM CANADA BRINGING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. MAY
SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE DAYTIME
HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
COLDER OF THE TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE...SOME -20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EST SATURDAY...QUIET...COLD AND GENERALLY DRY MID-
WINTER CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME AS BROAD LONGWAVE POLAR TROUGH REMAINS ATOP THE
NORTHEAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED BENEATH. DID OFFER AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHSN FAR EAST/SOUTH DURING TUESDAY AS
OFFSHORE SYSTEM PASSES NEAR THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK. THIS IS MAINLY
OUT OF RESPECT FOR MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHICH SHOW A
SOMEWHAT BROADER WESTERN EXTENT TO THE QPF FIELD OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THIS
MORNING`S UKMET...GFS AND GEM IS FOR A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST AND
THIS IS WHAT I`LL LEAN TOWARD...ESP SINCE BENCHMARK SYSTEMS ARE
USUALLY MINIMAL PLAYERS FOR US.

ONLY OTHER NOTABLE CHANCE OF PCPN WILL OCCUR LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVANCE
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN SHOWING BROAD CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
LOOKING AT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING REALLY ONLY
LIGHT SHSN HERE AND THERE WITH THE BEST SHOT OF ANY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS GIVEN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...BKN/OVC MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
AS OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
LITTLE IMPACT TO AREA TERMINALS. EXCEPTION AT KMSS TERMINAL WHERE
MORE PERSISTENT MVFR STRATUS EXPECTED WITH CIGS GENERALLY FROM
015-020 AGL. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 5-12 KTS. AFTER 22Z
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST WITH A
GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR AND INCREASING CHC OF
FLURRIES/SHSN. FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR IN THE 05-10Z TIME FRAME
WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WGH




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241618
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1118 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SE OF LI TODAY AND THEN
TRACK UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
AREA FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SE OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

THE INITIAL HEAVY PRECIP BAND HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND SPOTTY PRECIP THROUGH THE
MORNING. WITH TEMPS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SW CT...AND NE NJ HANGING AROUND FREEZING A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
ONLY SPOTTY TRACE ICE AMOUNTS FOR NORTHERN LI/NYC FOR A FEW SPOTS
EXPECTED TO STILL HANGING AROUND FREEZING.

IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING NORTHERN AND THEN SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY THIS AFTERNOON...OPERATIONAL AND HIGH RES MODELS SIGNALING
A DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIP DEVELOPING W OF THE HUDSON THIS
MORNING...AND THEN STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY TRANSLATING EAST INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 TENTHS OF QPF POSSIBLE WITH THIS
BAND.

THERMAL PROFILES AND DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
TRANSITION ANY LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR TRI-
STATE...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS
CITY/COAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. SNOW COULD BE BRIEFLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY WITH THIS BAND.

SO AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. WITH A WORST CASE OF AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4
INCHES EAST OF THE HUDSON...STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR THIS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT. IF CHANGEOVER OCCURS EARLIER FOR LI...THIS WORST CASE
THREAT COULD EXTEND DOWN TO LI...BUT LOW PROB.

ANY SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

WARNING HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO ADVISORIES BASED ON ABOVE
THREAT...AND WILL BE STEPPED DOWN ONCE THE BAND MOVES EAST.

TEMPS WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY OF SLOWLY RISE INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 30S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
PCPN TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS EVE ACROSS FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S
INLAND....AND 25 TO 30 AT THE COAST. MOTORISTS WILL NEED TO BE
ALERT FOR THE REFREEZING OF STANDING WATER AND SLUSH.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SUN SENDS A DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR SUN EVE. HIGHS SUN WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S...WITH LOWS MON MORNING GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

NW GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN AFT BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW PRES
PUSHES TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC. A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...AND THEN TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. PREVIOUS MODELS
HAVE KEPT THE STORM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND THEN EAST OF THE
REGION AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST TO A POINT EAST OF CAPE COD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. 00Z NAM...00Z GFS...MOST GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE THIS PATTERN...AND KEEP
THE LOW TO THE EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THE 00Z ECMWF IS AN
OUTLIER IN THAT IT IS A BIT SLOWER AND A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST AS
OPPOSED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...AND SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL DIVE
INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL WRAP INTO THE DEPARTING SFC LOW
AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS LOW WILL ALSO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...FORMING A TIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME.

SHOULD THE ECMWF PAN OUT...IT COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA AS SNOW
WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM AS IT PASSES NEAR THE
BENCHMARK. SHOULD THE GFS/NAM PAN OUT...ANY SNOWFALL THAT FALLS WILL
BE LIGHT...BUT CHANCES WOULD BE MUCH LOWER AND CONFINED TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND THEN
CONFINE CHANCE POPS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED...AS
WITH STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
CLASSIC NOR`EASTER TO DEVELOP...BUT WHETHER SNOWFALL FROM IT IMPACTS
THE OKX FORECAST AREA REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

DRY CONDS FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST. WEAK LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPS
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. THESE TEMPS ARE SOME 10-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS RELATIVE TO NORMAL AT
NIGHT. WIND CHILLS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...POSSIBLY
FROM ZERO TO FIVE BELOW IN SOME AREAS...AND WIND CHILLS DURING THE
DAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS.

TEMPS WARM UP A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND HEAD NORTHEAST...MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA
THIS EVENING.

PRECIP HAS TAPERED OFF TO LIGHT RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS AND LIGHT
SNOW AT KSWF...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS...AND LIFR CONDS MOSTLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND. THESE CONDS NOT EXPECT TO CHANGE MUCH INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT AS WINDS BACK MORE NORTHERLY AND THE LOW
DEEPENS FURTHER...ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL RETURN TO CHANGE PRECIP
BACK TO A LIGHT RAIN/SLEET MIX AND THEN LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A NARROW STRIPE WHERE SNOW
ACCUMULATES UP TO AN INCH ON RUNWAYS BEFORE ENDING...MOST LIKELY
ACROSS EASTERN CT AND CENTRAL/EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SO WILL HAVE
TO WATCH KISP/KGON FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT
WILL BACK NW AT OR JUST LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC...AND INCREASE TO
10-15G20-25KT THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
...HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...VFR. W WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT.
.MON...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW. E-NE WINDS 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KT.
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY
LONG ISLAND/CT TERMINALS. NE-N WINDS G30-35 KT.
.WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST WATERS THROUGH SUN
AFT...WITH A MARGINAL GALE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS BETWEEN
MORICHES INLET AND MONTAUK POINT. NLY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME NW
TONIGHT AND THEN WEST ON SUN AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE
INTO FROM JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVE TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON SUN.

WITH ANOTHER STRONG LOW IMPACTING THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS STARTING ON
MONDAY. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY. CONDS SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CONDS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY. THIS WILL FALL AS A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND RAIN.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF COULD COME
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW. 12Z MODELS
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MORE MORE SIGNIFICANT QPF...BUT
CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT.

DRY CONDS RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS ACROSS
WESTERN LI/NYC SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE...AND COULD LOCALLY BRIEFLY TOUCH MINOR THRESHOLDS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ007>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005-
     006.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067-
     069>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ068.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW
NEAR TERM...DW/NV
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...GOODMAN/DS
MARINE...MPS/DW/NV
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









000
FXUS61 KOKX 241618
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1118 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SE OF LI TODAY AND THEN
TRACK UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
AREA FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SE OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

THE INITIAL HEAVY PRECIP BAND HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND SPOTTY PRECIP THROUGH THE
MORNING. WITH TEMPS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SW CT...AND NE NJ HANGING AROUND FREEZING A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
ONLY SPOTTY TRACE ICE AMOUNTS FOR NORTHERN LI/NYC FOR A FEW SPOTS
EXPECTED TO STILL HANGING AROUND FREEZING.

IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING NORTHERN AND THEN SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY THIS AFTERNOON...OPERATIONAL AND HIGH RES MODELS SIGNALING
A DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIP DEVELOPING W OF THE HUDSON THIS
MORNING...AND THEN STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY TRANSLATING EAST INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 TENTHS OF QPF POSSIBLE WITH THIS
BAND.

THERMAL PROFILES AND DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
TRANSITION ANY LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR TRI-
STATE...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS
CITY/COAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. SNOW COULD BE BRIEFLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY WITH THIS BAND.

SO AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. WITH A WORST CASE OF AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4
INCHES EAST OF THE HUDSON...STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR THIS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT. IF CHANGEOVER OCCURS EARLIER FOR LI...THIS WORST CASE
THREAT COULD EXTEND DOWN TO LI...BUT LOW PROB.

ANY SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

WARNING HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO ADVISORIES BASED ON ABOVE
THREAT...AND WILL BE STEPPED DOWN ONCE THE BAND MOVES EAST.

TEMPS WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY OF SLOWLY RISE INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 30S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
PCPN TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS EVE ACROSS FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S
INLAND....AND 25 TO 30 AT THE COAST. MOTORISTS WILL NEED TO BE
ALERT FOR THE REFREEZING OF STANDING WATER AND SLUSH.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SUN SENDS A DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR SUN EVE. HIGHS SUN WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S...WITH LOWS MON MORNING GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

NW GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN AFT BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW PRES
PUSHES TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC. A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...AND THEN TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. PREVIOUS MODELS
HAVE KEPT THE STORM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND THEN EAST OF THE
REGION AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST TO A POINT EAST OF CAPE COD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. 00Z NAM...00Z GFS...MOST GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE THIS PATTERN...AND KEEP
THE LOW TO THE EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THE 00Z ECMWF IS AN
OUTLIER IN THAT IT IS A BIT SLOWER AND A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST AS
OPPOSED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...AND SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL DIVE
INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL WRAP INTO THE DEPARTING SFC LOW
AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS LOW WILL ALSO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...FORMING A TIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME.

SHOULD THE ECMWF PAN OUT...IT COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA AS SNOW
WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM AS IT PASSES NEAR THE
BENCHMARK. SHOULD THE GFS/NAM PAN OUT...ANY SNOWFALL THAT FALLS WILL
BE LIGHT...BUT CHANCES WOULD BE MUCH LOWER AND CONFINED TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND THEN
CONFINE CHANCE POPS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED...AS
WITH STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
CLASSIC NOR`EASTER TO DEVELOP...BUT WHETHER SNOWFALL FROM IT IMPACTS
THE OKX FORECAST AREA REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

DRY CONDS FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST. WEAK LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPS
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. THESE TEMPS ARE SOME 10-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS RELATIVE TO NORMAL AT
NIGHT. WIND CHILLS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...POSSIBLY
FROM ZERO TO FIVE BELOW IN SOME AREAS...AND WIND CHILLS DURING THE
DAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS.

TEMPS WARM UP A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND HEAD NORTHEAST...MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA
THIS EVENING.

PRECIP HAS TAPERED OFF TO LIGHT RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS AND LIGHT
SNOW AT KSWF...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS...AND LIFR CONDS MOSTLY
ACROSS LONG ISLAND. THESE CONDS NOT EXPECT TO CHANGE MUCH INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT AS WINDS BACK MORE NORTHERLY AND THE LOW
DEEPENS FURTHER...ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL RETURN TO CHANGE PRECIP
BACK TO A LIGHT RAIN/SLEET MIX AND THEN LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A NARROW STRIPE WHERE SNOW
ACCUMULATES UP TO AN INCH ON RUNWAYS BEFORE ENDING...MOST LIKELY
ACROSS EASTERN CT AND CENTRAL/EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SO WILL HAVE
TO WATCH KISP/KGON FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT
WILL BACK NW AT OR JUST LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC...AND INCREASE TO
10-15G20-25KT THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
...HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...VFR. W WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT.
.MON...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW. E-NE WINDS 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KT.
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY
LONG ISLAND/CT TERMINALS. NE-N WINDS G30-35 KT.
.WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST WATERS THROUGH SUN
AFT...WITH A MARGINAL GALE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS BETWEEN
MORICHES INLET AND MONTAUK POINT. NLY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME NW
TONIGHT AND THEN WEST ON SUN AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE
INTO FROM JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVE TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON SUN.

WITH ANOTHER STRONG LOW IMPACTING THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS STARTING ON
MONDAY. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY. CONDS SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CONDS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY. THIS WILL FALL AS A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND RAIN.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF COULD COME
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW. 12Z MODELS
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MORE MORE SIGNIFICANT QPF...BUT
CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT.

DRY CONDS RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS ACROSS
WESTERN LI/NYC SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE...AND COULD LOCALLY BRIEFLY TOUCH MINOR THRESHOLDS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ007>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005-
     006.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067-
     069>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ068.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW
NEAR TERM...DW/NV
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...GOODMAN/DS
MARINE...MPS/DW/NV
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KBTV 241446
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
946 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ARCTIC COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 946 AM EST SATURDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING A SHARP
CUTOFF BETWEEN SNOW AND NO SNOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AT
THIS TIME. HAVE BOOSTED POPS ACROSS WINDSOR COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT...AS SPRINGFIELD VERMONT REPORTING SNOW AT THIS TIME.
FURTHER NORTH...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SUNNY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 626 AM EST SATURDAY...TODAY WILL BE THE
LAST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY. WE`LL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TODAY. FIRST LOW WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF OUR
CWA ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC. SECOND LOW WILL PASS FROM MID ATLANTIC
REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CLOSELY CENTERED AROUND THAT LOW...THEREFORE
LITTLE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA. HAVE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN
RUTLAND...WINDSOR AND ORANGE COUNTIES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT...JUST ONE TO TWO INCHES. MEANWHILE WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO OUR NORTH THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. TODAY IS THE LAST CHANCE AT ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO CROSSES
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOME DECENT VORTICITY
ADVECTION. MINS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES HANG AROUND TWENTY AS FRONT
TAKES THE LONGEST TO REACH THERE. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THEN WIND DOWN TOWARDS MORNING. ONLY EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE AREA FROM CANADA BRINGING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. MAY
SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE DAYTIME
HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
COLDER OF THE TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE...SOME -20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EST SATURDAY...QUIET...COLD AND GENERALLY DRY MID-
WINTER CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME AS BROAD LONGWAVE POLAR TROUGH REMAINS ATOP THE
NORTHEAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED BENEATH. DID OFFER AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHSN FAR EAST/SOUTH DURING TUESDAY AS
OFFSHORE SYSTEM PASSES NEAR THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK. THIS IS MAINLY
OUT OF RESPECT FOR MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHICH SHOW A
SOMEWHAT BROADER WESTERN EXTENT TO THE QPF FIELD OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THIS
MORNING`S UKMET...GFS AND GEM IS FOR A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST AND
THIS IS WHAT I`LL LEAN TOWARD...ESP SINCE BENCHMARK SYSTEMS ARE
USUALLY MINIMAL PLAYERS FOR US.

ONLY OTHER NOTABLE CHANCE OF PCPN WILL OCCUR LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVANCE
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN SHOWING BROAD CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
LOOKING AT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING REALLY ONLY
LIGHT SHSN HERE AND THERE WITH THE BEST SHOT OF ANY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS GIVEN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...BKN/OVC MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
AS OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
LITTLE IMPACT TO AREA TERMINALS. EXCEPTION AT KMSS TERMINAL WHERE
MORE PERSISTENT MVFR STRATUS EXPECTED WITH CIGS GENERALLY FROM
015-020 AGL. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 5-12 KTS. AFTER 22Z
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST WITH A
GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR AND INCREASING CHC OF
FLURRIES/SHSN. FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR IN THE 05-10Z TIME FRAME
WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 241430
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
930 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THEN FOLLOWING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH THIS MORNING...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
REMAIN WITHIN THE SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND A COASTAL LOW
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CAROLINA COASTLINE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE RESULTING ZONE OF COMPENSATING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
AIR ACROSS OUR AREA WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COASTAL STORM GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO A SWATH OF LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL THEN COME TO AN END LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PRESSES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AND AS
BOTH SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MODEST LEAD SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
OF THESE NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE LAKES.

DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL GRADUALLY
SAG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/
LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FURTHER AUGMENT THE EXISTING
FORCING REFERRED TO ABOVE...THEREBY LEADING TO THE BEST OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. EXPECT THESE
TO BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN NATURE...WITH THE GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION AGAIN EXPECTED NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPING AND LAKE-DRIVEN ENHANCEMENT OF
THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE FIELD. IN THESE LATTER AREAS HAVE GONE
WITH A ROUND OF HIGH LIKELY POPS...ALONG WITH SOME MODEST ACCUMS OF
AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS THERE MOST LIKELY TO
FOCUS ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE...ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE BULK OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME BETWEEN EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GENERALLY DIMINISHING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S TODAY...WITH TEMPS THEN SHARPLY DROPPING OFF AS COLD
ADVECTION SETS UP FOLLOWING THE FROPA TONIGHT. BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY
MORNING...EXPECT READINGS TO HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...AND TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES ARE GUARANTEED TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN THE MERCURY WILL BE SOME
10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN WHERE IT SHOULD BE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
IMPRESSIVE BECAUSE CLIMATOLOGICALLY WE ARE AT OUR COLDEST POINT OF
THE YEAR. THE ZENITH AND NADIR OF OUR ANNUAL TEMPERATURES OCCUR
ROUGHLY 5 WEEKS AFTER THE CORRESPONDING SOLSTICE. BY THE START OF
FEBRUARY...OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING.

THE COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO A DEEPENING
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL
DIRECT COLD AIR FROM NUNAVUT AND THE CANADIAN ARCTIC ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. LUCKILY FOR OUR REGION...THE COLD WILL
NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AS THE ONLY REAL STORM
SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. MORE ON THAT IN A MOMENT.

AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD...A BOMBOGENETIC LOW WILL BE PUSHING NORTH
ALONG THE COAST OF QUEBEC WHILE A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LATTER OF THESE FEATURES
WAS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR FORECAST AREA
TO BRING US A FEW INCHES OF SNOW INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...SFC BASED RIDGING BETWEEN THE STORM SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER OVER OUR REGION WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME
NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AN FLURRIES. INITIALLY...A COLD 310 FLOW
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES...BUT WITH A CAP UNDER 6K FT AND A SERIOUS LACK OF SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE...SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO UNDER AN INCH. AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH.
THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW SOUTH OF LK ONTARIO SHOULD KEEP A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WHILE HELPING TO GENERATE FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE NEARLY
STEADY IN THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS. THESE READINGS WERE LOWERED BY
SOME 5 DEG FROM CONTINUITY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST TO THE CAROLINAS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY. AGAIN...THIS WILL KEEP A SHIELD OF
STEADY SNOW TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. GIVEN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...MOST AREAS
WILL BE FREE FROM ANY LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH THE MERCURY PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND WELL BELOW ZERO EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. AGAIN...THESE READINGS HAVE BEEN LOWERED FROM CONTINUITY.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY AS GENERAL RIDGING
WILL BE FOUND OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH MORE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER...ALBEIT COLD WITH TEMPERATURES
NOT CLIMBING OUT OF THE TEENS (SINGLE DIGITS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY).

WHILE ANOTHER DEEP COASTAL STORM IS FORECAST CHURN UP THE NORTHEAST
COAST ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE
TO NOSE BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP VERY COLD
IN PLACE...WITH A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ENCOURAGING SOME PESKY LOW
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER THE BULK OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MODERATING OF THE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DO NOT
LET THIS FOOL YOU THOUGH...AS AT THE SAME TIME...OLD MAN WINTER WILL
BE SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ARCTIC INTRUSION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA.

SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC WHEN WE OPEN THIS PERIOD...BUT AS WE PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...A LARGE SLUG OF THIS FRIGID AIR WILL BREAK
LOOSE AND PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CANADA. IN FACT...
THERE IS A SUGGESTION FROM MANY OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS THAT THE NOTORIOUS POLAR VORTEX WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH
OVER ONTARIO. IF THIS WERE TO COME TO FRUITION...THEN THE START OF
FEBRUARY COULD CERTAINLY FEATURE SOME OF THE COLDEST WEATHER THAT WE
WOULD EXPERIENCE THIS WINTER. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS MORNING...CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE TO IFR/LOW MVFR AS A STRATUS DECK SPREADS EASTWARD
FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN NEW YORK.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...WITH
THESE THEN DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
IFR/MVFR VSBYS...WHILE IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS SHOULD OTHERWISE CONTINUE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH LINGERING
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
SAGS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...THEN WILL
VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. WITH WINDS AND WAVES
LIKELY TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS ON LAKE ONTARIO FROM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THAT LAKE AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR






000
FXUS61 KALY 241428
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
928 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR AREAS FROM MAINLY THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER LITCHFIELD COUNTY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITCHFIELD CO...AND
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BERKSHIRES...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...AND EASTERN WINDHAM CO
VT...

SOME DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SNOW IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IN
EASTERN PA AND THE CATSKILLS...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
INCREASE IN COVERAGE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE END IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DOES NOT INCREASE..THE PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE BEFORE ENDING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS...WITH TOTAL SNOWFALLS ON THE LOWER END OF THE
CURRENTLY FORECASTED RANGES. PRECIPITATION COULD END AS SOME
SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE ONCE THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
DECREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 30S LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ONCE THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DECREASES AS WELL.
SO...JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS AFD HAS A FEW MORE DETAILS AND IS BELOW...

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
5-9 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS LITCHFIELD CO...WITH A BAND OF 6-8
INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN DUTCHESS CO AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
BERKSHIRE CO...WITH GENERALLY 3-6 INCHES EXPECTED FURTHER N AND W
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. HAVE EXPANDED THE 3-6 INCH SNOWFALL
RANGE INTO WESTERN ULSTER CO...HENCE THE EXPANSION OF THE
ADVISORY.

TRICKIER SNOWFALL FORECAST TO THE N AND W...WHERE DRIER AIR AND
SLIGHTLY LESS DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL FALL ACROSS THE CAPITAL
REGION AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY...HIGHEST TO THE S AND E...AND GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION/EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE SARATOGA REGION.

AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY EMBEDDED BANDING
FEATURES...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY GREATER SNOWFALL ACCUMS
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN
VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING COASTAL STORM...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AT TIMES...AND
SHOULD ALSO KEEP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASES IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THEN
EXPANDING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL
AS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...OR PERHAPS EMBEDDED SQUALLS COULD ALSO DEVELOP...AND
POSSIBLY EXTEND INTO VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. SNOWFALL
ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
BY DAYBREAK...AROUND AN INCH ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN
VT/NW MA...AND A COATING TO UP TO AN INCH IN AREAS WHICH
EXPERIENCE ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS...INCLUDING SOME
VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. MIN TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
REACHED IN MOST AREAS UNTIL DAYBREAK...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID
20S. SLIGHTLY COLDER MINS COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT SHOULD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP WITH
THE FRESH SNOW COVER IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...SOME MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN...COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON BRISK NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
AS THE FRONT PASSES...A PERIOD OF DEEPER MIXING AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING COULD ALLOW SOME VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY SPIKE IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEREAFTER...TEMPS SHOULD FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL TRACK AND IMPACTS FROM A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME RECENT 00Z/24 GEFS AND SREF MEMBERS...AS
WELL AS THE 00Z/24 ECMWF...STILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
FOR THIS SYSTEM...ESP AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND POSSIBLY CAPTURES THE SFC FEATURE OFF THE LONG ISLAND OR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE VERY LEAST...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ABUNDANT IN THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
SUN NT/MON AM...WITH MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO FOR MANY AREAS...WITH EVEN COLDER MINS POSSIBLE SHOULD
THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BE THINNER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
WINDS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...SO NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. ON MONDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE TEENS
IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT WILL BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE.

ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IT WILL BE A TOUGH CALL AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT A COASTAL LOW IMPACTS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FA. THE ECMWF
IS DECIDEDLY WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK FROM THE GFS AND GGEM
POSITIONS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS A SPRAWLING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT BUILDS EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE SWEEPING EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF CAPE COD WITH A TRAILING
TROUGH AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR REGION. SINCE THIS IS FAR OUT
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND MUCH CAN CHANGE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
UPPER TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDS AT KALB AND MAINLY VFR CONDS AT KGFL.
THIS IS A RESULT OF A COASTAL LOW JUST EAST OF DELAWARE OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS ARE MOVING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE KPOU AND KPSF TAF SITES WITH
KALB ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THESE BANDS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED AT KGFL...SO WILL HANDLE WITH A VCSH FOR NOW AT
THAT LOCATION.

AS THIS STORM INTENSIFIES TO OUR EAST...THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
TO SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY VFR BTWN 18Z AND 22Z.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH CIGS GENERALLY OVC035.

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE TO
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY SATURDAY NIGHT.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS AND RECENTLY HAS EXHIBITED A DECREASE IN GAGE
LEVELS /BELOW FLOOD STAGE/.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ061-063>066.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 241428
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
928 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR AREAS FROM MAINLY THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER LITCHFIELD COUNTY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITCHFIELD CO...AND
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BERKSHIRES...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...AND EASTERN WINDHAM CO
VT...

SOME DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SNOW IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IN
EASTERN PA AND THE CATSKILLS...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
INCREASE IN COVERAGE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE END IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DOES NOT INCREASE..THE PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE BEFORE ENDING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS...WITH TOTAL SNOWFALLS ON THE LOWER END OF THE
CURRENTLY FORECASTED RANGES. PRECIPITATION COULD END AS SOME
SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE ONCE THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
DECREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 30S LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ONCE THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DECREASES AS WELL.
SO...JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS AFD HAS A FEW MORE DETAILS AND IS BELOW...

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
5-9 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS LITCHFIELD CO...WITH A BAND OF 6-8
INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN DUTCHESS CO AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
BERKSHIRE CO...WITH GENERALLY 3-6 INCHES EXPECTED FURTHER N AND W
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. HAVE EXPANDED THE 3-6 INCH SNOWFALL
RANGE INTO WESTERN ULSTER CO...HENCE THE EXPANSION OF THE
ADVISORY.

TRICKIER SNOWFALL FORECAST TO THE N AND W...WHERE DRIER AIR AND
SLIGHTLY LESS DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL FALL ACROSS THE CAPITAL
REGION AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY...HIGHEST TO THE S AND E...AND GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION/EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE SARATOGA REGION.

AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY EMBEDDED BANDING
FEATURES...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY GREATER SNOWFALL ACCUMS
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN
VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING COASTAL STORM...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AT TIMES...AND
SHOULD ALSO KEEP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASES IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THEN
EXPANDING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL
AS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...OR PERHAPS EMBEDDED SQUALLS COULD ALSO DEVELOP...AND
POSSIBLY EXTEND INTO VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. SNOWFALL
ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
BY DAYBREAK...AROUND AN INCH ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN
VT/NW MA...AND A COATING TO UP TO AN INCH IN AREAS WHICH
EXPERIENCE ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS...INCLUDING SOME
VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. MIN TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
REACHED IN MOST AREAS UNTIL DAYBREAK...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID
20S. SLIGHTLY COLDER MINS COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT SHOULD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP WITH
THE FRESH SNOW COVER IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...SOME MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN...COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON BRISK NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
AS THE FRONT PASSES...A PERIOD OF DEEPER MIXING AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING COULD ALLOW SOME VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY SPIKE IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEREAFTER...TEMPS SHOULD FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL TRACK AND IMPACTS FROM A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME RECENT 00Z/24 GEFS AND SREF MEMBERS...AS
WELL AS THE 00Z/24 ECMWF...STILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
FOR THIS SYSTEM...ESP AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND POSSIBLY CAPTURES THE SFC FEATURE OFF THE LONG ISLAND OR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE VERY LEAST...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ABUNDANT IN THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
SUN NT/MON AM...WITH MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO FOR MANY AREAS...WITH EVEN COLDER MINS POSSIBLE SHOULD
THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BE THINNER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
WINDS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...SO NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. ON MONDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE TEENS
IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT WILL BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE.

ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IT WILL BE A TOUGH CALL AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT A COASTAL LOW IMPACTS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FA. THE ECMWF
IS DECIDEDLY WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK FROM THE GFS AND GGEM
POSITIONS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS A SPRAWLING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT BUILDS EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE SWEEPING EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF CAPE COD WITH A TRAILING
TROUGH AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR REGION. SINCE THIS IS FAR OUT
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND MUCH CAN CHANGE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
UPPER TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDS AT KALB AND MAINLY VFR CONDS AT KGFL.
THIS IS A RESULT OF A COASTAL LOW JUST EAST OF DELAWARE OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS ARE MOVING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE KPOU AND KPSF TAF SITES WITH
KALB ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THESE BANDS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED AT KGFL...SO WILL HANDLE WITH A VCSH FOR NOW AT
THAT LOCATION.

AS THIS STORM INTENSIFIES TO OUR EAST...THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
TO SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY VFR BTWN 18Z AND 22Z.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH CIGS GENERALLY OVC035.

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE TO
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY SATURDAY NIGHT.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS AND RECENTLY HAS EXHIBITED A DECREASE IN GAGE
LEVELS /BELOW FLOOD STAGE/.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ061-063>066.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV







000
FXUS61 KBGM 241406
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
906 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. THE STORM THAT
CAUSED THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND IT, COOLER
WEATHER AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...
SNOW IS LIGHTENING UP AND SLOWLY PULLING SOUTH AND EAST AS OF THIS
TIME. EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE THRU MOST OF THE MRNG HRS AND
CURRENT GRIDS HAVE AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THIS, THUS ONLY CHG MADE
WAS TO WORD CHC POPS AS LGT SNOW.

HV RECEIVED REPORTS OF ISOLD 8" AMNTS ARND THE SCRANTON AREA WHICH
IS REASONABLE AS THIS LOOKED TO BE WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS
WENT THRU FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MRNG. WL LET ADVISORIES GO THRU
NOON AND EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.

PREV DISCO BLO...

300 AM UPDATE...
A VERY SHARP LINE ON RADAR CONTINUES WITH NO SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY, WITH MODERATE SNOW JUST SOUTH OF THE NY/PA
LINE. MAIN UPDATES INCLUDE EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
INTO SULLIVAN COUNTY, NY, AND INCREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTHERN PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY. WE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A REPORT
OF 3" FROM MONROE COUNTY, PA (THANKS TO THE PHILLY OFFICE). WITH
THAT REPORT COMBINED WITH THE MESOSCALE BANDING SHOWING UP ON
RADAR, I INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE 4" TO 8" RANGE FOR
MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA. STILL EXPECT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY OR ROUGHLY FROM
NEAR WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON, SOUTH AND EAST. THIS MATCHES UP WELL
WITH RADAR TRENDS BEING MORE STRATIFORM DUE SOUTH OF THESE AREAS,
WITH MORE CONVECTIVE/SPLOTCHY RETURNS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOWFALL FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY AS WE WILL
LIKELY GO FROM A FEW INCHES DO JUST A DUSTING OVER THE SPAN OF A
FEW MILES. SNOW DIMINISHES RAPIDLY BY LATE MORNING, AS THE STORM
CAUSING THE SNOW LIFTS UP THE COAST.

CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SCT. SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT ON A COOL,
NORTHWEST FLOW. A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR AND A LOWERING INVERSION ENDS THE THREAT. MAIN CHANGE TO
THIS PERIOD WAS TO PUSH PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
FARTHER SOUTH BASED ON MODEL TRENDS. SNOW CHANCES ARE HELD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 06Z MONDAY, AND MAINLY JUST ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND
PART OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THIS IS A GOOD 50 MILES OR SO
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WE HAD PREVIOUSLY. TWO BIG DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS NEXT STORM ARE 1) STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, WHICH
WILL BLOCK THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF IT. 2) THE STORM IS A CLIPPER
AND COMING FROM THE WEST, SO IT WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO TAP A LOT OF MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV TRENDED SOUTH FOR UPCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM SUN
NGT/MONDAY. STRONG 1025MB CANADIAN HIGH WL BUILD SOUTH AND SHUNT
SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. 12Z GFS, CMC AND EC TRACK IT CLOSE TO THE
PIEDMONT OF NC WITH 12Z NAM NOW GOING THRU THE HEART OF VA. H5 WV IS
STILL OFFSHORE AND WILL BE COMING INTO NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA
TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW HV LOWERED POPS FOR SUN NGT/MON WITH
SYSTEM NOW LOOKING TO BE A NEAR-MISS FOR CWA.

SFC HIGH WL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN CLDR AIR WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS
DROPPING DOWN TO NR 520DM. H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP BLO -10C WL
YIELD LOWS MON MRNG IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE TEENS ON MONDAY AS NRLY FLOW CONTS TO SUPPLY CLD AIR.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WL BE PRESENT OVR THE AREA STARTING MON
NGT AND HV DROPPED POPS TO SLGT CHC JUST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
NERLY FLOW WL BE PRESENT DRG THIS TIME WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA STARTING THUR MRNG.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST CAUSED A SHIELD OF SNOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST PA INCLUDING KAVP...AND REACHED KBGM AS WELL AS BARELY
KELM. OTHER TERMINALS NO SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM THIS MORNING. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN WHICH WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO DIMINISH THROUGH 14Z KELM-KBGM AND THROUGH 16Z KAVP.
HOWEVER...FUEL ALT CIG LOOKS LIKELY TO CREEP INTO KSYR-KRME EARLY
AFTERNOON AS WNW WINDS ROUGHLY 8-12 KTS DEVELOP. GOING INTO LATE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AIR WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO INITIATE LAKE
CLOUDS BUT ONLY MINOR AT BEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SO I AM EXPECTING
MVFR CIG TO REDEVELOP /IF NOT PERSIST/ FOR THE OTHER TERMINALS AS
WELL...YET WITH ONLY VFR TO MVFR VIS RESTRICTION FROM ACCOMPANYING
SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...TOWARDS END OF THE TAF PERIOD...SURFACE
BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWERS FOR KSYR- KRME WHICH COULD
RESULT IN LOWER RESTRICTIONS FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT -SHSN MAINLY MORNING.

SUN NGT-MON...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE -SN AT KAVP AS CLIPPER PASSES.

MON NGT-TUE...MINOR RESTRICTIONS FROM LAKE CLOUDS AND/OR -SN...MAINLY
NY TERMINALS.

TUE NGT-WED...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PVF
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 241406
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
906 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. THE STORM THAT
CAUSED THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND IT, COOLER
WEATHER AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...
SNOW IS LIGHTENING UP AND SLOWLY PULLING SOUTH AND EAST AS OF THIS
TIME. EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE THRU MOST OF THE MRNG HRS AND
CURRENT GRIDS HAVE AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THIS, THUS ONLY CHG MADE
WAS TO WORD CHC POPS AS LGT SNOW.

HV RECEIVED REPORTS OF ISOLD 8" AMNTS ARND THE SCRANTON AREA WHICH
IS REASONABLE AS THIS LOOKED TO BE WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS
WENT THRU FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MRNG. WL LET ADVISORIES GO THRU
NOON AND EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.

PREV DISCO BLO...

300 AM UPDATE...
A VERY SHARP LINE ON RADAR CONTINUES WITH NO SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY, WITH MODERATE SNOW JUST SOUTH OF THE NY/PA
LINE. MAIN UPDATES INCLUDE EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
INTO SULLIVAN COUNTY, NY, AND INCREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTHERN PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY. WE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A REPORT
OF 3" FROM MONROE COUNTY, PA (THANKS TO THE PHILLY OFFICE). WITH
THAT REPORT COMBINED WITH THE MESOSCALE BANDING SHOWING UP ON
RADAR, I INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE 4" TO 8" RANGE FOR
MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA. STILL EXPECT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY OR ROUGHLY FROM
NEAR WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON, SOUTH AND EAST. THIS MATCHES UP WELL
WITH RADAR TRENDS BEING MORE STRATIFORM DUE SOUTH OF THESE AREAS,
WITH MORE CONVECTIVE/SPLOTCHY RETURNS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOWFALL FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY AS WE WILL
LIKELY GO FROM A FEW INCHES DO JUST A DUSTING OVER THE SPAN OF A
FEW MILES. SNOW DIMINISHES RAPIDLY BY LATE MORNING, AS THE STORM
CAUSING THE SNOW LIFTS UP THE COAST.

CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SCT. SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT ON A COOL,
NORTHWEST FLOW. A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR AND A LOWERING INVERSION ENDS THE THREAT. MAIN CHANGE TO
THIS PERIOD WAS TO PUSH PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
FARTHER SOUTH BASED ON MODEL TRENDS. SNOW CHANCES ARE HELD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 06Z MONDAY, AND MAINLY JUST ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND
PART OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THIS IS A GOOD 50 MILES OR SO
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WE HAD PREVIOUSLY. TWO BIG DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS NEXT STORM ARE 1) STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, WHICH
WILL BLOCK THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF IT. 2) THE STORM IS A CLIPPER
AND COMING FROM THE WEST, SO IT WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO TAP A LOT OF MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV TRENDED SOUTH FOR UPCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM SUN
NGT/MONDAY. STRONG 1025MB CANADIAN HIGH WL BUILD SOUTH AND SHUNT
SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. 12Z GFS, CMC AND EC TRACK IT CLOSE TO THE
PIEDMONT OF NC WITH 12Z NAM NOW GOING THRU THE HEART OF VA. H5 WV IS
STILL OFFSHORE AND WILL BE COMING INTO NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA
TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW HV LOWERED POPS FOR SUN NGT/MON WITH
SYSTEM NOW LOOKING TO BE A NEAR-MISS FOR CWA.

SFC HIGH WL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN CLDR AIR WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS
DROPPING DOWN TO NR 520DM. H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP BLO -10C WL
YIELD LOWS MON MRNG IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE TEENS ON MONDAY AS NRLY FLOW CONTS TO SUPPLY CLD AIR.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WL BE PRESENT OVR THE AREA STARTING MON
NGT AND HV DROPPED POPS TO SLGT CHC JUST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
NERLY FLOW WL BE PRESENT DRG THIS TIME WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA STARTING THUR MRNG.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST CAUSED A SHIELD OF SNOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST PA INCLUDING KAVP...AND REACHED KBGM AS WELL AS BARELY
KELM. OTHER TERMINALS NO SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM THIS MORNING. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN WHICH WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO DIMINISH THROUGH 14Z KELM-KBGM AND THROUGH 16Z KAVP.
HOWEVER...FUEL ALT CIG LOOKS LIKELY TO CREEP INTO KSYR-KRME EARLY
AFTERNOON AS WNW WINDS ROUGHLY 8-12 KTS DEVELOP. GOING INTO LATE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AIR WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO INITIATE LAKE
CLOUDS BUT ONLY MINOR AT BEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SO I AM EXPECTING
MVFR CIG TO REDEVELOP /IF NOT PERSIST/ FOR THE OTHER TERMINALS AS
WELL...YET WITH ONLY VFR TO MVFR VIS RESTRICTION FROM ACCOMPANYING
SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...TOWARDS END OF THE TAF PERIOD...SURFACE
BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWERS FOR KSYR- KRME WHICH COULD
RESULT IN LOWER RESTRICTIONS FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT -SHSN MAINLY MORNING.

SUN NGT-MON...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE -SN AT KAVP AS CLIPPER PASSES.

MON NGT-TUE...MINOR RESTRICTIONS FROM LAKE CLOUDS AND/OR -SN...MAINLY
NY TERMINALS.

TUE NGT-WED...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PVF
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KOKX 241222
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
722 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA THIS MORNING
WILL PAST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND THEN TRACK UP INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
THE AREA AND INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DUAL POL RADAR DATA ALONG WITH SFC OBS SHOWS RAIN/SNOW LINE INTO
SOUTHERN CT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...PROPAGATING NE. THE
TRANSITION TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN CT...STALLING ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF
CARMEL AND STEWART.

HAZARDS REMAIN UP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY DUE TO A WINTRY MIX INLAND
AND AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW/ICE AT THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND PASSES TO THE EAST...THE FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE NLY BY THIS AFT...POSSIBLY COOLING THE LOW-LEVELS
A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO EXPAND THE FREEZING
RAIN SOUTHWARD.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 3 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS INTERIOR NE NJ AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE THE SNOW RATIOS WERE LIKELY HIGHER. QPF
AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS WERE GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS. HIGHER
QPF FELL EAST...BUT IT WAS A WETTER SNOW WITH LOWER RATIOS. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR RETURNS.

TEMPS WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY OF SLOWLY RISE INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 30S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
PCPN TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS EVE ACROSS FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S
INLAND....AND 25 TO 30 AT THE COAST. MOTORISTS WILL NEED TO BE
ALERT FOR THE REFREEZING OF STANDING WATER AND SLUSH.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SUN SENDS A DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR SUN EVE. HIGHS SUN WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S...WITH LOWS MON MORNING GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

NW GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN AFT BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW PRES
PUSHES TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC. A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...AND THEN TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. PREVIOUS MODELS
HAVE KEPT THE STORM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND THEN EAST OF THE
REGION AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST TO A POINT EAST OF CAPE COD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. 00Z NAM...00Z GFS...MOST GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE THIS PATTERN...AND KEEP
THE LOW TO THE EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THE 00Z ECMWF IS AN
OUTLIER IN THAT IT IS A BIT SLOWER AND A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST AS
OPPOSED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...AND SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL DIVE
INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL WRAP INTO THE DEPARTING SFC LOW
AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS LOW WILL ALSO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...FORMING A TIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME.

SHOULD THE ECMWF PAN OUT...IT COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA AS SNOW
WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM AS IT PASSES NEAR THE
BENCHMARK. SHOULD THE GFS/NAM PAN OUT...ANY SNOWFALL THAT FALLS WILL
BE LIGHT...BUT CHANCES WOULD BE MUCH LOWER AND CONFINED TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND THEN
CONFINE CHANCE POPS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED...AS
WITH STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
CLASSIC NOR`EASTER TO DEVELOP...BUT WHETHER SNOWFALL FROM IT IMPACTS
THE OKX FORECAST AREA REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

DRY CONDS FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST. WEAK LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPS
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. THESE TEMPS ARE SOME 10-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS RELATIVE TO NORMAL AT
NIGHT. WIND CHILLS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...POSSIBLY
FROM ZERO TO FIVE BELOW IN SOME AREAS...AND WIND CHILLS DURING THE
DAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS.

TEMPS WARM UP A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
     HIGH IMPACT AVIATION WINTER EVENT TODAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST...MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS
EVENING.

WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...CHANGING TO A MIX
OF RAIN AND SLEET IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A CHANGE BACK TO ALL
SNOW IS LIKELY AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING
OF MIXING AND CHANGEOVER.

ICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL BE AROUND A TRACE...WITH UP TO AN
INCH OF NEW SNOW WITH THE CHANGEOVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED AT KSWF WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

IFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BY
SATURDAY EVENING. NE WINDS THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AROUND 10
KT SHIFT TO THE NW 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THIS
EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...VFR. WEST WIND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SNOW POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST WATERS THROUGH SUN
AFT...WITH A MARGINAL GALE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS BETWEEN
MORICHES INLET AND MONTAUK POINT. NLY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME NW
TONIGHT AND THEN WEST ON SUN AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE
INTO FROM JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVE TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON SUN.

WITH ANOTHER STRONG LOW IMPACTING THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS STARTING ON
MONDAY. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY. CONDS SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CONDS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY. THIS WILL FALL AS A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN...AND RAIN.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF COULD COME
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT COULD BE CONFINED
TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS HAPPENING.
DRY CONDS RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS WILL APPROACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN LI/NYC SOUTH SHORE BAYS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON SAT...LOCALLY TOUCHING MINOR THRESHOLDS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ007>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005-
     006.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067-
     069>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ068.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MPS/DW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









000
FXUS61 KOKX 241222
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
722 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA THIS MORNING
WILL PAST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND THEN TRACK UP INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
THE AREA AND INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DUAL POL RADAR DATA ALONG WITH SFC OBS SHOWS RAIN/SNOW LINE INTO
SOUTHERN CT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...PROPAGATING NE. THE
TRANSITION TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN CT...STALLING ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF
CARMEL AND STEWART.

HAZARDS REMAIN UP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY DUE TO A WINTRY MIX INLAND
AND AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW/ICE AT THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND PASSES TO THE EAST...THE FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE NLY BY THIS AFT...POSSIBLY COOLING THE LOW-LEVELS
A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO EXPAND THE FREEZING
RAIN SOUTHWARD.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 3 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS INTERIOR NE NJ AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE THE SNOW RATIOS WERE LIKELY HIGHER. QPF
AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS WERE GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS. HIGHER
QPF FELL EAST...BUT IT WAS A WETTER SNOW WITH LOWER RATIOS. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR RETURNS.

TEMPS WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY OF SLOWLY RISE INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 30S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
PCPN TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS EVE ACROSS FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S
INLAND....AND 25 TO 30 AT THE COAST. MOTORISTS WILL NEED TO BE
ALERT FOR THE REFREEZING OF STANDING WATER AND SLUSH.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SUN SENDS A DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR SUN EVE. HIGHS SUN WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S...WITH LOWS MON MORNING GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

NW GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN AFT BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW PRES
PUSHES TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC. A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...AND THEN TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. PREVIOUS MODELS
HAVE KEPT THE STORM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND THEN EAST OF THE
REGION AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST TO A POINT EAST OF CAPE COD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. 00Z NAM...00Z GFS...MOST GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE THIS PATTERN...AND KEEP
THE LOW TO THE EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THE 00Z ECMWF IS AN
OUTLIER IN THAT IT IS A BIT SLOWER AND A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST AS
OPPOSED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...AND SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL DIVE
INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL WRAP INTO THE DEPARTING SFC LOW
AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS LOW WILL ALSO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...FORMING A TIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME.

SHOULD THE ECMWF PAN OUT...IT COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA AS SNOW
WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM AS IT PASSES NEAR THE
BENCHMARK. SHOULD THE GFS/NAM PAN OUT...ANY SNOWFALL THAT FALLS WILL
BE LIGHT...BUT CHANCES WOULD BE MUCH LOWER AND CONFINED TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND THEN
CONFINE CHANCE POPS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED...AS
WITH STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
CLASSIC NOR`EASTER TO DEVELOP...BUT WHETHER SNOWFALL FROM IT IMPACTS
THE OKX FORECAST AREA REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

DRY CONDS FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST. WEAK LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPS
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. THESE TEMPS ARE SOME 10-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS RELATIVE TO NORMAL AT
NIGHT. WIND CHILLS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...POSSIBLY
FROM ZERO TO FIVE BELOW IN SOME AREAS...AND WIND CHILLS DURING THE
DAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS.

TEMPS WARM UP A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
     HIGH IMPACT AVIATION WINTER EVENT TODAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST...MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS
EVENING.

WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...CHANGING TO A MIX
OF RAIN AND SLEET IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A CHANGE BACK TO ALL
SNOW IS LIKELY AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING
OF MIXING AND CHANGEOVER.

ICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL BE AROUND A TRACE...WITH UP TO AN
INCH OF NEW SNOW WITH THE CHANGEOVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED AT KSWF WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

IFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BY
SATURDAY EVENING. NE WINDS THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AROUND 10
KT SHIFT TO THE NW 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THIS
EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...VFR. WEST WIND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SNOW POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST WATERS THROUGH SUN
AFT...WITH A MARGINAL GALE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS BETWEEN
MORICHES INLET AND MONTAUK POINT. NLY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME NW
TONIGHT AND THEN WEST ON SUN AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE
INTO FROM JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVE TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON SUN.

WITH ANOTHER STRONG LOW IMPACTING THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS STARTING ON
MONDAY. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY. CONDS SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CONDS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY. THIS WILL FALL AS A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN...AND RAIN.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF COULD COME
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT COULD BE CONFINED
TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS HAPPENING.
DRY CONDS RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS WILL APPROACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN LI/NYC SOUTH SHORE BAYS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON SAT...LOCALLY TOUCHING MINOR THRESHOLDS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ007>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005-
     006.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067-
     069>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ068.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MPS/DW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 241151
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
651 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. THE STORM THAT
CAUSED THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND IT, COOLER
WEATHER AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
300 AM UPDATE...
A VERY SHARP LINE ON RADAR CONTINUES WITH NO SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY, WITH MODERATE SNOW JUST SOUTH OF THE NY/PA
LINE. MAIN UPDATES INCLUDE EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
INTO SULLIVAN COUNTY, NY, AND INCREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTHERN PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY. WE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A REPORT
OF 3" FROM MONROE COUNTY, PA (THANKS TO THE PHILLY OFFICE). WITH
THAT REPORT COMBINED WITH THE MESOSCALE BANDING SHOWING UP ON
RADAR, I INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE 4" TO 8" RANGE FOR
MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA. STILL EXPECT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY OR ROUGHLY FROM
NEAR WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON, SOUTH AND EAST. THIS MATCHES UP WELL
WITH RADAR TRENDS BEING MORE STRATIFORM DUE SOUTH OF THESE AREAS,
WITH MORE CONVECTIVE/SPLOTCHY RETURNS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOWFALL FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY AS WE WILL
LIKELY GO FROM A FEW INCHES DO JUST A DUSTING OVER THE SPAN OF A
FEW MILES. SNOW DIMINISHES RAPIDLY BY LATE MORNING, AS THE STORM
CAUSING THE SNOW LIFTS UP THE COAST.

CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SCT. SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT ON A COOL,
NORTHWEST FLOW. A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR AND A LOWERING INVERSION ENDS THE THREAT. MAIN CHANGE TO
THIS PERIOD WAS TO PUSH PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
FARTHER SOUTH BASED ON MODEL TRENDS. SNOW CHANCES ARE HELD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 06Z MONDAY, AND MAINLY JUST ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND
PART OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THIS IS A GOOD 50 MILES OR SO
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WE HAD PREVIOUSLY. TWO BIG DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS NEXT STORM ARE 1) STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, WHICH
WILL BLOCK THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF IT. 2) THE STORM IS A CLIPPER
AND COMING FROM THE WEST, SO IT WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO TAP A LOT OF MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV TRENDED SOUTH FOR UPCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM SUN
NGT/MONDAY. STRONG 1025MB CANADIAN HIGH WL BUILD SOUTH AND SHUNT
SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. 12Z GFS, CMC AND EC TRACK IT CLOSE TO THE
PIEDMONT OF NC WITH 12Z NAM NOW GOING THRU THE HEART OF VA. H5 WV IS
STILL OFFSHORE AND WILL BE COMING INTO NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA
TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW HV LOWERED POPS FOR SUN NGT/MON WITH
SYSTEM NOW LOOKING TO BE A NEAR-MISS FOR CWA.

SFC HIGH WL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN CLDR AIR WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS
DROPPING DOWN TO NR 520DM. H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP BLO -10C WL
YIELD LOWS MON MRNG IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE TEENS ON MONDAY AS NRLY FLOW CONTS TO SUPPLY CLD AIR.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WL BE PRESENT OVR THE AREA STARTING MON
NGT AND HV DROPPED POPS TO SLGT CHC JUST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
NERLY FLOW WL BE PRESENT DRG THIS TIME WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA STARTING THUR MRNG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST CAUSED A SHIELD OF SNOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST PA INCLUDING KAVP...AND REACHED KBGM AS WELL AS BARELY
KELM. OTHER TERMINALS NO SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM THIS MORNING. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN WHICH WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO DIMINISH THROUGH 14Z KELM-KBGM AND THROUGH 16Z KAVP.
HOWEVER...FUEL ALT CIG LOOKS LIKELY TO CREEP INTO KSYR-KRME EARLY
AFTERNOON AS WNW WINDS ROUGHLY 8-12 KTS DEVELOP. GOING INTO LATE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AIR WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO INITIATE LAKE
CLOUDS BUT ONLY MINOR AT BEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SO I AM EXPECTING
MVFR CIG TO REDEVELOP /IF NOT PERSIST/ FOR THE OTHER TERMINALS AS
WELL...YET WITH ONLY VFR TO MVFR VIS RESTRICTION FROM ACCOMPANYING
SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...TOWARDS END OF THE TAF PERIOD...SURFACE
BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWERS FOR KSYR- KRME WHICH COULD
RESULT IN LOWER RESTRICTIONS FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT -SHSN MAINLY MORNING.

SUN NGT-MON...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE -SN AT KAVP AS CLIPPER PASSES.

MON NGT-TUE...MINOR RESTRICTIONS FROM LAKE CLOUDS AND/OR -SN...MAINLY
NY TERMINALS.

TUE NGT-WED...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/RRM
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 241151
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
651 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. THE STORM THAT
CAUSED THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND IT, COOLER
WEATHER AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
300 AM UPDATE...
A VERY SHARP LINE ON RADAR CONTINUES WITH NO SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY, WITH MODERATE SNOW JUST SOUTH OF THE NY/PA
LINE. MAIN UPDATES INCLUDE EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
INTO SULLIVAN COUNTY, NY, AND INCREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTHERN PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY. WE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A REPORT
OF 3" FROM MONROE COUNTY, PA (THANKS TO THE PHILLY OFFICE). WITH
THAT REPORT COMBINED WITH THE MESOSCALE BANDING SHOWING UP ON
RADAR, I INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE 4" TO 8" RANGE FOR
MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA. STILL EXPECT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY OR ROUGHLY FROM
NEAR WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON, SOUTH AND EAST. THIS MATCHES UP WELL
WITH RADAR TRENDS BEING MORE STRATIFORM DUE SOUTH OF THESE AREAS,
WITH MORE CONVECTIVE/SPLOTCHY RETURNS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOWFALL FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY AS WE WILL
LIKELY GO FROM A FEW INCHES DO JUST A DUSTING OVER THE SPAN OF A
FEW MILES. SNOW DIMINISHES RAPIDLY BY LATE MORNING, AS THE STORM
CAUSING THE SNOW LIFTS UP THE COAST.

CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SCT. SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT ON A COOL,
NORTHWEST FLOW. A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR AND A LOWERING INVERSION ENDS THE THREAT. MAIN CHANGE TO
THIS PERIOD WAS TO PUSH PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
FARTHER SOUTH BASED ON MODEL TRENDS. SNOW CHANCES ARE HELD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 06Z MONDAY, AND MAINLY JUST ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND
PART OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THIS IS A GOOD 50 MILES OR SO
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WE HAD PREVIOUSLY. TWO BIG DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS NEXT STORM ARE 1) STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, WHICH
WILL BLOCK THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF IT. 2) THE STORM IS A CLIPPER
AND COMING FROM THE WEST, SO IT WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO TAP A LOT OF MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV TRENDED SOUTH FOR UPCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM SUN
NGT/MONDAY. STRONG 1025MB CANADIAN HIGH WL BUILD SOUTH AND SHUNT
SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. 12Z GFS, CMC AND EC TRACK IT CLOSE TO THE
PIEDMONT OF NC WITH 12Z NAM NOW GOING THRU THE HEART OF VA. H5 WV IS
STILL OFFSHORE AND WILL BE COMING INTO NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA
TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW HV LOWERED POPS FOR SUN NGT/MON WITH
SYSTEM NOW LOOKING TO BE A NEAR-MISS FOR CWA.

SFC HIGH WL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN CLDR AIR WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS
DROPPING DOWN TO NR 520DM. H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP BLO -10C WL
YIELD LOWS MON MRNG IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE TEENS ON MONDAY AS NRLY FLOW CONTS TO SUPPLY CLD AIR.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WL BE PRESENT OVR THE AREA STARTING MON
NGT AND HV DROPPED POPS TO SLGT CHC JUST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
NERLY FLOW WL BE PRESENT DRG THIS TIME WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA STARTING THUR MRNG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST CAUSED A SHIELD OF SNOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST PA INCLUDING KAVP...AND REACHED KBGM AS WELL AS BARELY
KELM. OTHER TERMINALS NO SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM THIS MORNING. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN WHICH WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO DIMINISH THROUGH 14Z KELM-KBGM AND THROUGH 16Z KAVP.
HOWEVER...FUEL ALT CIG LOOKS LIKELY TO CREEP INTO KSYR-KRME EARLY
AFTERNOON AS WNW WINDS ROUGHLY 8-12 KTS DEVELOP. GOING INTO LATE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AIR WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO INITIATE LAKE
CLOUDS BUT ONLY MINOR AT BEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SO I AM EXPECTING
MVFR CIG TO REDEVELOP /IF NOT PERSIST/ FOR THE OTHER TERMINALS AS
WELL...YET WITH ONLY VFR TO MVFR VIS RESTRICTION FROM ACCOMPANYING
SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...TOWARDS END OF THE TAF PERIOD...SURFACE
BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWERS FOR KSYR- KRME WHICH COULD
RESULT IN LOWER RESTRICTIONS FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT -SHSN MAINLY MORNING.

SUN NGT-MON...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE -SN AT KAVP AS CLIPPER PASSES.

MON NGT-TUE...MINOR RESTRICTIONS FROM LAKE CLOUDS AND/OR -SN...MAINLY
NY TERMINALS.

TUE NGT-WED...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/RRM
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBUF 241148
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
648 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THEN FOLLOWING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH THIS MORNING...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
REMAIN WITHIN THE SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND A COASTAL LOW
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CAROLINA COASTLINE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE RESULTING ZONE OF COMPENSATING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
AIR ACROSS OUR AREA WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COASTAL STORM GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO A SWATH OF LOWER CLOUDS
ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL THEN COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PRESSES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AND AS
BOTH SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MODEST LEAD SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
OF THESE NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE LAKES.

DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL GRADUALLY
SAG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/
LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FURTHER AUGMENT THE EXISTING
FORCING REFERRED TO ABOVE...THEREBY LEADING TO THE BEST OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. EXPECT THESE
TO BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN NATURE...WITH THE GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION AGAIN EXPECTED NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPING AND LAKE-DRIVEN ENHANCEMENT OF
THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE FIELD. IN THESE LATTER AREAS HAVE GONE
WITH A ROUND OF HIGH LIKELY POPS...ALONG WITH SOME MODEST ACCUMS OF
AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS THERE MOST LIKELY TO
FOCUS ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE...ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE BULK OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME BETWEEN EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GENERALLY DIMINISHING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S TODAY...WITH TEMPS THEN SHARPLY DROPPING OFF AS COLD
ADVECTION SETS UP FOLLOWING THE FROPA TONIGHT. BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY
MORNING...EXPECT READINGS TO HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...AND TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES ARE GUARANTEED TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN THE MERCURY WILL BE SOME
10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN WHERE IT SHOULD BE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
IMPRESSIVE BECAUSE CLIMATOLOGICALLY WE ARE AT OUR COLDEST POINT OF
THE YEAR. THE ZENITH AND NADIR OF OUR ANNUAL TEMPERATURES OCCUR
ROUGHLY 5 WEEKS AFTER THE CORRESPONDING SOLSTICE. BY THE START OF
FEBRUARY...OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING.

THE COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO A DEEPENING
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL
DIRECT COLD AIR FROM NUNAVUT AND THE CANADIAN ARCTIC ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. LUCKILY FOR OUR REGION...THE COLD WILL
NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AS THE ONLY REAL STORM
SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. MORE ON THAT IN A MOMENT.

AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD...A BOMBOGENETIC LOW WILL BE PUSHING NORTH
ALONG THE COAST OF QUEBEC WHILE A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LATTER OF THESE FEATURES
WAS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR FORECAST AREA
TO BRING US A FEW INCHES OF SNOW INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...SFC BASED RIDGING BETWEEN THE STORM SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER OVER OUR REGION WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME
NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AN FLURRIES. INITIALLY...A COLD 310 FLOW
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES...BUT WITH A CAP UNDER 6K FT AND A SERIOUS LACK OF SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE...SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO UNDER AN INCH. AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH.
THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW SOUTH OF LK ONTARIO SHOULD KEEP A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WHILE HELPING TO GENERATE FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE NEARLY
STEADY IN THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS. THESE READINGS WERE LOWERED BY
SOME 5 DEG FROM CONTINUITY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST TO THE CAROLINAS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY. AGAIN...THIS WILL KEEP A SHIELD OF
STEADY SNOW TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. GIVEN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...MOST AREAS
WILL BE FREE FROM ANY LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH THE MERCURY PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND WELL BELOW ZERO EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. AGAIN...THESE READINGS HAVE BEEN LOWERED FROM CONTINUITY.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY AS GENERAL RIDGING
WILL BE FOUND OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH MORE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER...ALBEIT COLD WITH TEMPERATURES
NOT CLIMBING OUT OF THE TEENS (SINGLE DIGITS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY).

WHILE ANOTHER DEEP COASTAL STORM IS FORECAST CHURN UP THE NORTHEAST
COAST ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE
TO NOSE BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP VERY COLD
IN PLACE...WITH A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ENCOURAGING SOME PESKY LOW
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER THE BULK OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MODERATING OF THE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DO NOT
LET THIS FOOL YOU THOUGH...AS AT THE SAME TIME...OLD MAN WINTER WILL
BE SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ARCTIC INTRUSION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA.

SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC WHEN WE OPEN THIS PERIOD...BUT AS WE PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...A LARGE SLUG OF THIS FRIGID AIR WILL BREAK
LOOSE AND PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CANADA. IN FACT...
THERE IS A SUGGESTION FROM MANY OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS THAT THE NOTORIOUS POLAR VORTEX WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH
OVER ONTARIO. IF THIS WERE TO COME TO FRUITION...THEN THE START OF
FEBRUARY COULD CERTAINLY FEATURE SOME OF THE COLDEST WEATHER THAT WE
WOULD EXPERIENCE THIS WINTER. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS MORNING...CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE TO IFR/LOW MVFR AS A STRATUS DECK SPREADS EASTWARD
FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN NEW YORK.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...WITH
THESE THEN DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
IFR/MVFR VSBYS...WHILE IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS SHOULD OTHERWISE CONTINUE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH LINGERING
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
SAGS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...THEN WILL
VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. WITH WINDS AND WAVES
LIKELY TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS ON LAKE ONTARIO FROM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THAT LAKE AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR







000
FXUS61 KBUF 241148
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
648 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THEN FOLLOWING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH THIS MORNING...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
REMAIN WITHIN THE SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND A COASTAL LOW
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CAROLINA COASTLINE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE RESULTING ZONE OF COMPENSATING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
AIR ACROSS OUR AREA WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COASTAL STORM GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO A SWATH OF LOWER CLOUDS
ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL THEN COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PRESSES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AND AS
BOTH SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MODEST LEAD SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
OF THESE NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE LAKES.

DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL GRADUALLY
SAG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/
LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FURTHER AUGMENT THE EXISTING
FORCING REFERRED TO ABOVE...THEREBY LEADING TO THE BEST OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. EXPECT THESE
TO BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN NATURE...WITH THE GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION AGAIN EXPECTED NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPING AND LAKE-DRIVEN ENHANCEMENT OF
THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE FIELD. IN THESE LATTER AREAS HAVE GONE
WITH A ROUND OF HIGH LIKELY POPS...ALONG WITH SOME MODEST ACCUMS OF
AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS THERE MOST LIKELY TO
FOCUS ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE...ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE BULK OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME BETWEEN EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GENERALLY DIMINISHING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S TODAY...WITH TEMPS THEN SHARPLY DROPPING OFF AS COLD
ADVECTION SETS UP FOLLOWING THE FROPA TONIGHT. BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY
MORNING...EXPECT READINGS TO HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...AND TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES ARE GUARANTEED TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN THE MERCURY WILL BE SOME
10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN WHERE IT SHOULD BE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
IMPRESSIVE BECAUSE CLIMATOLOGICALLY WE ARE AT OUR COLDEST POINT OF
THE YEAR. THE ZENITH AND NADIR OF OUR ANNUAL TEMPERATURES OCCUR
ROUGHLY 5 WEEKS AFTER THE CORRESPONDING SOLSTICE. BY THE START OF
FEBRUARY...OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING.

THE COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO A DEEPENING
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL
DIRECT COLD AIR FROM NUNAVUT AND THE CANADIAN ARCTIC ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. LUCKILY FOR OUR REGION...THE COLD WILL
NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AS THE ONLY REAL STORM
SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. MORE ON THAT IN A MOMENT.

AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD...A BOMBOGENETIC LOW WILL BE PUSHING NORTH
ALONG THE COAST OF QUEBEC WHILE A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LATTER OF THESE FEATURES
WAS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR FORECAST AREA
TO BRING US A FEW INCHES OF SNOW INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...SFC BASED RIDGING BETWEEN THE STORM SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER OVER OUR REGION WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME
NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AN FLURRIES. INITIALLY...A COLD 310 FLOW
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES...BUT WITH A CAP UNDER 6K FT AND A SERIOUS LACK OF SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE...SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO UNDER AN INCH. AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH.
THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW SOUTH OF LK ONTARIO SHOULD KEEP A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WHILE HELPING TO GENERATE FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE NEARLY
STEADY IN THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS. THESE READINGS WERE LOWERED BY
SOME 5 DEG FROM CONTINUITY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST TO THE CAROLINAS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY. AGAIN...THIS WILL KEEP A SHIELD OF
STEADY SNOW TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. GIVEN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...MOST AREAS
WILL BE FREE FROM ANY LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH THE MERCURY PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND WELL BELOW ZERO EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. AGAIN...THESE READINGS HAVE BEEN LOWERED FROM CONTINUITY.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY AS GENERAL RIDGING
WILL BE FOUND OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH MORE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER...ALBEIT COLD WITH TEMPERATURES
NOT CLIMBING OUT OF THE TEENS (SINGLE DIGITS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY).

WHILE ANOTHER DEEP COASTAL STORM IS FORECAST CHURN UP THE NORTHEAST
COAST ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE
TO NOSE BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP VERY COLD
IN PLACE...WITH A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ENCOURAGING SOME PESKY LOW
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER THE BULK OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MODERATING OF THE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DO NOT
LET THIS FOOL YOU THOUGH...AS AT THE SAME TIME...OLD MAN WINTER WILL
BE SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ARCTIC INTRUSION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA.

SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC WHEN WE OPEN THIS PERIOD...BUT AS WE PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...A LARGE SLUG OF THIS FRIGID AIR WILL BREAK
LOOSE AND PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CANADA. IN FACT...
THERE IS A SUGGESTION FROM MANY OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS THAT THE NOTORIOUS POLAR VORTEX WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH
OVER ONTARIO. IF THIS WERE TO COME TO FRUITION...THEN THE START OF
FEBRUARY COULD CERTAINLY FEATURE SOME OF THE COLDEST WEATHER THAT WE
WOULD EXPERIENCE THIS WINTER. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS MORNING...CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE TO IFR/LOW MVFR AS A STRATUS DECK SPREADS EASTWARD
FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN NEW YORK.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...WITH
THESE THEN DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
IFR/MVFR VSBYS...WHILE IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS SHOULD OTHERWISE CONTINUE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH LINGERING
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
SAGS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...THEN WILL
VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. WITH WINDS AND WAVES
LIKELY TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS ON LAKE ONTARIO FROM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THAT LAKE AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBTV 241138
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
638 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ARCTIC COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 626 AM EST SATURDAY...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE DAY. WE`LL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TODAY. FIRST LOW WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF OUR CWA ACROSS
CENTRAL QUEBEC. SECOND LOW WILL PASS FROM MID ATLANTIC REGION
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CLOSELY CENTERED AROUND THAT LOW...THEREFORE
LITTLE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA. HAVE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN
RUTLAND...WINDSOR AND ORANGE COUNTIES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT...JUST ONE TO TWO INCHES. MEANWHILE WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO OUR NORTH THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. TODAY IS THE LAST CHANCE AT ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO CROSSES
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOME DECENT VORTICITY
ADVECTION. MINS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES HANG AROUND TWENTY AS FRONT
TAKES THE LONGEST TO REACH THERE. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THEN WIND DOWN TOWARDS MORNING. ONLY EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE AREA FROM CANADA BRINGING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. MAY
SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE DAYTIME
HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
COLDER OF THE TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE...SOME -20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EST SATURDAY...QUIET...COLD AND GENERALLY DRY MID-
WINTER CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME AS BROAD LONGWAVE POLAR TROUGH REMAINS ATOP THE
NORTHEAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED BENEATH. DID OFFER AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHSN FAR EAST/SOUTH DURING TUESDAY AS
OFFSHORE SYSTEM PASSES NEAR THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK. THIS IS MAINLY
OUT OF RESPECT FOR MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHICH SHOW A
SOMEWHAT BROADER WESTERN EXTENT TO THE QPF FIELD OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THIS
MORNING`S UKMET...GFS AND GEM IS FOR A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST AND
THIS IS WHAT I`LL LEAN TOWARD...ESP SINCE BENCHMARK SYSTEMS ARE
USUALLY MINIMAL PLAYERS FOR US.

ONLY OTHER NOTABLE CHANCE OF PCPN WILL OCCUR LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVANCE
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN SHOWING BROAD CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
LOOKING AT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING REALLY ONLY
LIGHT SHSN HERE AND THERE WITH THE BEST SHOT OF ANY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS GIVEN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...BKN/OVC MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
AS OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
LITTLE IMPACT TO AREA TERMINALS. EXCEPTION AT KMSS TERMINAL WHERE
MORE PERSISTENT MVFR STRATUS EXPECTED WITH CIGS GENERALLY FROM
015-020 AGL. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 5-12 KTS. AFTER 22Z
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST WITH A
GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR AND INCREASING CHC OF
FLURRIES/SHSN. FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR IN THE 05-10Z TIME FRAME
WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WGH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 241138
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
638 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ARCTIC COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 626 AM EST SATURDAY...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE DAY. WE`LL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TODAY. FIRST LOW WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF OUR CWA ACROSS
CENTRAL QUEBEC. SECOND LOW WILL PASS FROM MID ATLANTIC REGION
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CLOSELY CENTERED AROUND THAT LOW...THEREFORE
LITTLE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA. HAVE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN
RUTLAND...WINDSOR AND ORANGE COUNTIES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT...JUST ONE TO TWO INCHES. MEANWHILE WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO OUR NORTH THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. TODAY IS THE LAST CHANCE AT ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO CROSSES
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOME DECENT VORTICITY
ADVECTION. MINS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES HANG AROUND TWENTY AS FRONT
TAKES THE LONGEST TO REACH THERE. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THEN WIND DOWN TOWARDS MORNING. ONLY EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE AREA FROM CANADA BRINGING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. MAY
SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE DAYTIME
HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
COLDER OF THE TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE...SOME -20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EST SATURDAY...QUIET...COLD AND GENERALLY DRY MID-
WINTER CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME AS BROAD LONGWAVE POLAR TROUGH REMAINS ATOP THE
NORTHEAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED BENEATH. DID OFFER AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHSN FAR EAST/SOUTH DURING TUESDAY AS
OFFSHORE SYSTEM PASSES NEAR THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK. THIS IS MAINLY
OUT OF RESPECT FOR MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHICH SHOW A
SOMEWHAT BROADER WESTERN EXTENT TO THE QPF FIELD OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THIS
MORNING`S UKMET...GFS AND GEM IS FOR A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST AND
THIS IS WHAT I`LL LEAN TOWARD...ESP SINCE BENCHMARK SYSTEMS ARE
USUALLY MINIMAL PLAYERS FOR US.

ONLY OTHER NOTABLE CHANCE OF PCPN WILL OCCUR LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVANCE
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN SHOWING BROAD CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
LOOKING AT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING REALLY ONLY
LIGHT SHSN HERE AND THERE WITH THE BEST SHOT OF ANY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS GIVEN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...BKN/OVC MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
AS OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
LITTLE IMPACT TO AREA TERMINALS. EXCEPTION AT KMSS TERMINAL WHERE
MORE PERSISTENT MVFR STRATUS EXPECTED WITH CIGS GENERALLY FROM
015-020 AGL. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 5-12 KTS. AFTER 22Z
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST WITH A
GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR AND INCREASING CHC OF
FLURRIES/SHSN. FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR IN THE 05-10Z TIME FRAME
WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WGH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 241138
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
638 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ARCTIC COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 626 AM EST SATURDAY...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE DAY. WE`LL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TODAY. FIRST LOW WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF OUR CWA ACROSS
CENTRAL QUEBEC. SECOND LOW WILL PASS FROM MID ATLANTIC REGION
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CLOSELY CENTERED AROUND THAT LOW...THEREFORE
LITTLE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA. HAVE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN
RUTLAND...WINDSOR AND ORANGE COUNTIES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT...JUST ONE TO TWO INCHES. MEANWHILE WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO OUR NORTH THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. TODAY IS THE LAST CHANCE AT ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO CROSSES
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOME DECENT VORTICITY
ADVECTION. MINS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES HANG AROUND TWENTY AS FRONT
TAKES THE LONGEST TO REACH THERE. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THEN WIND DOWN TOWARDS MORNING. ONLY EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE AREA FROM CANADA BRINGING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. MAY
SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE DAYTIME
HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
COLDER OF THE TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE...SOME -20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EST SATURDAY...QUIET...COLD AND GENERALLY DRY MID-
WINTER CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME AS BROAD LONGWAVE POLAR TROUGH REMAINS ATOP THE
NORTHEAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED BENEATH. DID OFFER AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHSN FAR EAST/SOUTH DURING TUESDAY AS
OFFSHORE SYSTEM PASSES NEAR THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK. THIS IS MAINLY
OUT OF RESPECT FOR MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHICH SHOW A
SOMEWHAT BROADER WESTERN EXTENT TO THE QPF FIELD OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THIS
MORNING`S UKMET...GFS AND GEM IS FOR A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST AND
THIS IS WHAT I`LL LEAN TOWARD...ESP SINCE BENCHMARK SYSTEMS ARE
USUALLY MINIMAL PLAYERS FOR US.

ONLY OTHER NOTABLE CHANCE OF PCPN WILL OCCUR LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVANCE
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN SHOWING BROAD CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
LOOKING AT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING REALLY ONLY
LIGHT SHSN HERE AND THERE WITH THE BEST SHOT OF ANY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS GIVEN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...BKN/OVC MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
AS OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
LITTLE IMPACT TO AREA TERMINALS. EXCEPTION AT KMSS TERMINAL WHERE
MORE PERSISTENT MVFR STRATUS EXPECTED WITH CIGS GENERALLY FROM
015-020 AGL. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 5-12 KTS. AFTER 22Z
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST WITH A
GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR AND INCREASING CHC OF
FLURRIES/SHSN. FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR IN THE 05-10Z TIME FRAME
WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WGH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 241138
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
638 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ARCTIC COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 626 AM EST SATURDAY...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE DAY. WE`LL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TODAY. FIRST LOW WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF OUR CWA ACROSS
CENTRAL QUEBEC. SECOND LOW WILL PASS FROM MID ATLANTIC REGION
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CLOSELY CENTERED AROUND THAT LOW...THEREFORE
LITTLE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA. HAVE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN
RUTLAND...WINDSOR AND ORANGE COUNTIES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT...JUST ONE TO TWO INCHES. MEANWHILE WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO OUR NORTH THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. TODAY IS THE LAST CHANCE AT ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO CROSSES
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOME DECENT VORTICITY
ADVECTION. MINS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES HANG AROUND TWENTY AS FRONT
TAKES THE LONGEST TO REACH THERE. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THEN WIND DOWN TOWARDS MORNING. ONLY EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE AREA FROM CANADA BRINGING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. MAY
SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE DAYTIME
HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
COLDER OF THE TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE...SOME -20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EST SATURDAY...QUIET...COLD AND GENERALLY DRY MID-
WINTER CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME AS BROAD LONGWAVE POLAR TROUGH REMAINS ATOP THE
NORTHEAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED BENEATH. DID OFFER AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHSN FAR EAST/SOUTH DURING TUESDAY AS
OFFSHORE SYSTEM PASSES NEAR THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK. THIS IS MAINLY
OUT OF RESPECT FOR MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHICH SHOW A
SOMEWHAT BROADER WESTERN EXTENT TO THE QPF FIELD OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THIS
MORNING`S UKMET...GFS AND GEM IS FOR A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST AND
THIS IS WHAT I`LL LEAN TOWARD...ESP SINCE BENCHMARK SYSTEMS ARE
USUALLY MINIMAL PLAYERS FOR US.

ONLY OTHER NOTABLE CHANCE OF PCPN WILL OCCUR LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVANCE
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN SHOWING BROAD CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
LOOKING AT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING REALLY ONLY
LIGHT SHSN HERE AND THERE WITH THE BEST SHOT OF ANY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS GIVEN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...BKN/OVC MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
AS OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
LITTLE IMPACT TO AREA TERMINALS. EXCEPTION AT KMSS TERMINAL WHERE
MORE PERSISTENT MVFR STRATUS EXPECTED WITH CIGS GENERALLY FROM
015-020 AGL. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 5-12 KTS. AFTER 22Z
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST WITH A
GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR AND INCREASING CHC OF
FLURRIES/SHSN. FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR IN THE 05-10Z TIME FRAME
WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WGH



000
FXUS61 KALY 241131
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR AREAS FROM MAINLY THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER LITCHFIELD COUNTY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPANDED INTO WESTERN ULSTER CO...

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITCHFIELD
CO...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
BERKSHIRES...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...AND
EASTERN WINDHAM CO VT...

AS OF 640 AM EST...THE NORTHERN/LEADING EDGE OF THE STEADIER SNOW
IS NOW NEAR OR JUST N OF I-90/I-88 IN NY...AND INTO SOUTHERN VT.
BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE
NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COS...AND SE
BERKSHIRE CO...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY FURTHER N AND W.

WE EXPECT BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NW CT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW EXTENDING FARTHER N AND W THROUGH THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY FURTHER
N AND W AFTER SUNRISE TO JUST N OF INTERSTATE 88/90...INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF SARATOGA COUNTY BY MID MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND THEN
WEAKENING OR RECEDING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT THE LAKE
GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...WHERE A DUSTING COULD OCCUR.

SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE PRECIP BECOMES ALL SNOW ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
5-9 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS LITCHFIELD CO...WITH A BAND OF 6-8
INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN DUTCHESS CO AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
BERKSHIRE CO...WITH GENERALLY 3-6 INCHES EXPECTED FURTHER N AND W
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. HAVE EXPANDED THE 3-6 INCH SNOWFALL
RANGE INTO WESTERN ULSTER CO...HENCE THE EXPANSION OF THE
ADVISORY.

TRICKIER SNOWFALL FORECAST TO THE N AND W...WHERE DRIER AIR AND
SLIGHTLY LESS DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL FALL ACROSS THE CAPITAL
REGION AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY...HIGHEST TO THE S AND E...AND GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION/EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE SARATOGA REGION.

AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY EMBEDDED BANDING
FEATURES...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY GREATER SNOWFALL ACCUMS
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN
VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING COASTAL STORM...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AT TIMES...AND
SHOULD ALSO KEEP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASES IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THEN
EXPANDING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL
AS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...OR PERHAPS EMBEDDED SQUALLS COULD ALSO DEVELOP...AND
POSSIBLY EXTEND INTO VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. SNOWFALL
ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
BY DAYBREAK...AROUND AN INCH ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN
VT/NW MA...AND A COATING TO UP TO AN INCH IN AREAS WHICH
EXPERIENCE ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS...INCLUDING SOME
VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. MIN TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
REACHED IN MOST AREAS UNTIL DAYBREAK...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID
20S. SLIGHTLY COLDER MINS COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT SHOULD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP WITH
THE FRESH SNOW COVER IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...SOME MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN...COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON BRISK NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
AS THE FRONT PASSES...A PERIOD OF DEEPER MIXING AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING COULD ALLOW SOME VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY SPIKE IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEREAFTER...TEMPS SHOULD FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL TRACK AND IMPACTS FROM A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME RECENT 00Z/24 GEFS AND SREF MEMBERS...AS
WELL AS THE 00Z/24 ECMWF...STILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
FOR THIS SYSTEM...ESP AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND POSSIBLY CAPTURES THE SFC FEATURE OFF THE LONG ISLAND OR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE VERY LEAST...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ABUNDANT IN THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
SUN NT/MON AM...WITH MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO FOR MANY AREAS...WITH EVEN COLDER MINS POSSIBLE SHOULD
THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BE THINNER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
WINDS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...SO NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. ON MONDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE TEENS
IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT WILL BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE.

ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IT WILL BE A TOUGH CALL AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT A COASTAL LOW IMPACTS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FA. THE ECMWF
IS DECIDEDLY WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK FROM THE GFS AND GGEM
POSITIONS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS A SPRAWLING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT BUILDS EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE SWEEPING EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF CAPE COD WITH A TRAILING
TROUGH AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR REGION. SINCE THIS IS FAR OUT
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND MUCH CAN CHANGE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
UPPER TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDS AT KALB AND MAINLY VFR CONDS AT KGFL.
THIS IS A RESULT OF A COASTAL LOW JUST EAST OF DELAWARE OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS ARE MOVING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE KPOU AND KPSF TAF SITES WITH
KALB ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THESE BANDS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED AT KGFL...SO WILL HANDLE WITH A VCSH FOR NOW AT
THAT LOCATION.

AS THIS STORM INTENSIFIES TO OUR EAST...THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
TO SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY VFR BTWN 18Z AND 22Z.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH CIGS GENERALLY OVC035.

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE TO
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY SATURDAY NIGHT.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS AND RECENTLY HAS EXHIBITED A DECREASE IN GAGE
LEVELS /BELOW FLOOD STAGE/.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ061-063>066.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV







000
FXUS61 KALY 241131
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR AREAS FROM MAINLY THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER LITCHFIELD COUNTY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPANDED INTO WESTERN ULSTER CO...

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITCHFIELD
CO...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
BERKSHIRES...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...AND
EASTERN WINDHAM CO VT...

AS OF 640 AM EST...THE NORTHERN/LEADING EDGE OF THE STEADIER SNOW
IS NOW NEAR OR JUST N OF I-90/I-88 IN NY...AND INTO SOUTHERN VT.
BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE
NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COS...AND SE
BERKSHIRE CO...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY FURTHER N AND W.

WE EXPECT BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NW CT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW EXTENDING FARTHER N AND W THROUGH THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY FURTHER
N AND W AFTER SUNRISE TO JUST N OF INTERSTATE 88/90...INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF SARATOGA COUNTY BY MID MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND THEN
WEAKENING OR RECEDING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT THE LAKE
GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AREA...WHERE A DUSTING COULD OCCUR.

SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE PRECIP BECOMES ALL SNOW ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
5-9 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS LITCHFIELD CO...WITH A BAND OF 6-8
INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN DUTCHESS CO AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
BERKSHIRE CO...WITH GENERALLY 3-6 INCHES EXPECTED FURTHER N AND W
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. HAVE EXPANDED THE 3-6 INCH SNOWFALL
RANGE INTO WESTERN ULSTER CO...HENCE THE EXPANSION OF THE
ADVISORY.

TRICKIER SNOWFALL FORECAST TO THE N AND W...WHERE DRIER AIR AND
SLIGHTLY LESS DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL FALL ACROSS THE CAPITAL
REGION AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY...HIGHEST TO THE S AND E...AND GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION/EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE SARATOGA REGION.

AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY EMBEDDED BANDING
FEATURES...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY GREATER SNOWFALL ACCUMS
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN
VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING COASTAL STORM...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AT TIMES...AND
SHOULD ALSO KEEP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASES IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THEN
EXPANDING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL
AS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...OR PERHAPS EMBEDDED SQUALLS COULD ALSO DEVELOP...AND
POSSIBLY EXTEND INTO VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. SNOWFALL
ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
BY DAYBREAK...AROUND AN INCH ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN
VT/NW MA...AND A COATING TO UP TO AN INCH IN AREAS WHICH
EXPERIENCE ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS...INCLUDING SOME
VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. MIN TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
REACHED IN MOST AREAS UNTIL DAYBREAK...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID
20S. SLIGHTLY COLDER MINS COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT SHOULD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP WITH
THE FRESH SNOW COVER IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...SOME MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN...COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON BRISK NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
AS THE FRONT PASSES...A PERIOD OF DEEPER MIXING AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING COULD ALLOW SOME VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY SPIKE IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEREAFTER...TEMPS SHOULD FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL TRACK AND IMPACTS FROM A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME RECENT 00Z/24 GEFS AND SREF MEMBERS...AS
WELL AS THE 00Z/24 ECMWF...STILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
FOR THIS SYSTEM...ESP AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND POSSIBLY CAPTURES THE SFC FEATURE OFF THE LONG ISLAND OR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE VERY LEAST...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ABUNDANT IN THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
SUN NT/MON AM...WITH MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO FOR MANY AREAS...WITH EVEN COLDER MINS POSSIBLE SHOULD
THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BE THINNER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
WINDS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...SO NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. ON MONDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE TEENS
IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT WILL BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE.

ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IT WILL BE A TOUGH CALL AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT A COASTAL LOW IMPACTS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FA. THE ECMWF
IS DECIDEDLY WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK FROM THE GFS AND GGEM
POSITIONS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS A SPRAWLING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT BUILDS EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE SWEEPING EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF CAPE COD WITH A TRAILING
TROUGH AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR REGION. SINCE THIS IS FAR OUT
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND MUCH CAN CHANGE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
UPPER TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDS AT KALB AND MAINLY VFR CONDS AT KGFL.
THIS IS A RESULT OF A COASTAL LOW JUST EAST OF DELAWARE OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS ARE MOVING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE KPOU AND KPSF TAF SITES WITH
KALB ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THESE BANDS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED AT KGFL...SO WILL HANDLE WITH A VCSH FOR NOW AT
THAT LOCATION.

AS THIS STORM INTENSIFIES TO OUR EAST...THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
TO SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY VFR BTWN 18Z AND 22Z.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH CIGS GENERALLY OVC035.

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE TO
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY SATURDAY NIGHT.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS AND RECENTLY HAS EXHIBITED A DECREASE IN GAGE
LEVELS /BELOW FLOOD STAGE/.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ061-063>066.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 241123
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
623 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR AREAS FROM MAINLY THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER LITCHFIELD COUNTY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPANDED INTO WESTERN ULSTER
CO...

     WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITCHFIELD
CO...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
BERKSHIRES...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...AND
EASTERN WINDHAM CO VT...

AS OF 415 AM EST...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ARE NOW
TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS LITCHFIELD CO AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXTENDING
NORTH AND WEST INTO THE SE CATSKILLS. SNOWFALL RATES PER RADAR
ESTIMATES ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES PER HOUR OR GREATER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO.

WE EXPECT BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NW CT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW EXTENDING FARTHER N AND W THROUGH THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND INTERSTATE
90 IN NY STATE AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...AND SHOULD REACH SE VT BETWEEN 8-10 AM.
THIS NORTHERN EDGE MAY EXPAND SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W AFTER
SUNRISE INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY/CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SARATOGA COUNTY BY
MID MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND THEN WEAKENING OR RECEDING FROM NW
TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE PRECIP BECOMES ALL SNOW ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
5-9 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS LITCHFIELD CO...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BERKSHIRE CO...WITH GENERALLY 3-6 INCHES EXPECTED
FURTHER N AND W ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. HAVE EXPANDED THE 3-6
INCH SNOWFALL RANGE INTO WESTERN ULSTER CO...HENCE THE EXPANSION
OF THE ADVISORY.

TRICKIER SNOWFALL FORECAST TO THE N AND W...WHERE DRIER AIR AND
SLIGHTLY LESS DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL FALL ACROSS THE CAPITAL
REGION...HIGHEST TO THE S AND E...AND GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS
EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION/EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE SARATOGA REGION.

AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY EMBEDDED BANDING
FEATURES...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY GREATER SNOWFALL ACCUMS
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN
VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING COASTAL STORM...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AT TIMES...AND
SHOULD ALSO KEEP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASES IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THEN
EXPANDING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL
AS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...OR PERHAPS EMBEDDED SQUALLS COULD ALSO DEVELOP...AND
POSSIBLY EXTEND INTO VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. SNOWFALL
ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
BY DAYBREAK...AROUND AN INCH ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN
VT/NW MA...AND A COATING TO UP TO AN INCH IN AREAS WHICH
EXPERIENCE ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS...INCLUDING SOME
VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. MIN TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
REACHED IN MOST AREAS UNTIL DAYBREAK...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID
20S. SLIGHTLY COLDER MINS COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT SHOULD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP WITH
THE FRESH SNOW COVER IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...SOME MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN...COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON BRISK NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
AS THE FRONT PASSES...A PERIOD OF DEEPER MIXING AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING COULD ALLOW SOME VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY SPIKE IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEREAFTER...TEMPS SHOULD FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL TRACK AND IMPACTS FROM A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME RECENT 00Z/24 GEFS AND SREF MEMBERS...AS
WELL AS THE 00Z/24 ECMWF...STILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
FOR THIS SYSTEM...ESP AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND POSSIBLY CAPTURES THE SFC FEATURE OFF THE LONG ISLAND OR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE VERY LEAST...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ABUNDANT IN THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
SUN NT/MON AM...WITH MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO FOR MANY AREAS...WITH EVEN COLDER MINS POSSIBLE SHOULD
THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BE THINNER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
WINDS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...SO NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. ON MONDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE TEENS
IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT WILL BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE.

ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IT WILL BE A TOUGH CALL AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT A COASTAL LOW IMPACTS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FA. THE ECMWF
IS DECIDEDLY WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK FROM THE GFS AND GGEM
POSITIONS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS A SPRAWLING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT BUILDS EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE SWEEPING EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF CAPE COD WITH A TRAILING
TROUGH AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR REGION. SINCE THIS IS FAR OUT
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND MUCH CAN CHANGE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
UPPER TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDS AT KALB AND MAINLY VFR CONDS AT KGFL.
THIS IS A RESULT OF A COASTAL LOW JUST EAST OF DELAWARE OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS ARE MOVING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE KPOU AND KPSF TAF SITES WITH
KALB ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THESE BANDS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED AT KGFL...SO WILL HANDLE WITH A VCSH FOR NOW AT
THAT LOCATION.

AS THIS STORM INTENSIFIES TO OUR EAST...THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
TO SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY VFR BTWN 18Z AND 22Z.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH CIGS GENERALLY OVC035.

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE TO
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY SATURDAY NIGHT.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS AND RECENTLY HAS EXHIBITED A DECREASE IN GAGE
LEVELS /BELOW FLOOD STAGE/.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ061-063>066.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 241123
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
623 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR AREAS FROM MAINLY THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER LITCHFIELD COUNTY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPANDED INTO WESTERN ULSTER
CO...

     WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITCHFIELD
CO...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
BERKSHIRES...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...AND
EASTERN WINDHAM CO VT...

AS OF 415 AM EST...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ARE NOW
TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS LITCHFIELD CO AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXTENDING
NORTH AND WEST INTO THE SE CATSKILLS. SNOWFALL RATES PER RADAR
ESTIMATES ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES PER HOUR OR GREATER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO.

WE EXPECT BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NW CT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW EXTENDING FARTHER N AND W THROUGH THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND INTERSTATE
90 IN NY STATE AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...AND SHOULD REACH SE VT BETWEEN 8-10 AM.
THIS NORTHERN EDGE MAY EXPAND SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W AFTER
SUNRISE INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY/CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SARATOGA COUNTY BY
MID MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND THEN WEAKENING OR RECEDING FROM NW
TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE PRECIP BECOMES ALL SNOW ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
5-9 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS LITCHFIELD CO...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BERKSHIRE CO...WITH GENERALLY 3-6 INCHES EXPECTED
FURTHER N AND W ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. HAVE EXPANDED THE 3-6
INCH SNOWFALL RANGE INTO WESTERN ULSTER CO...HENCE THE EXPANSION
OF THE ADVISORY.

TRICKIER SNOWFALL FORECAST TO THE N AND W...WHERE DRIER AIR AND
SLIGHTLY LESS DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL FALL ACROSS THE CAPITAL
REGION...HIGHEST TO THE S AND E...AND GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS
EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION/EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE SARATOGA REGION.

AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY EMBEDDED BANDING
FEATURES...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY GREATER SNOWFALL ACCUMS
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN
VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING COASTAL STORM...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AT TIMES...AND
SHOULD ALSO KEEP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASES IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THEN
EXPANDING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL
AS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...OR PERHAPS EMBEDDED SQUALLS COULD ALSO DEVELOP...AND
POSSIBLY EXTEND INTO VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. SNOWFALL
ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
BY DAYBREAK...AROUND AN INCH ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN
VT/NW MA...AND A COATING TO UP TO AN INCH IN AREAS WHICH
EXPERIENCE ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS...INCLUDING SOME
VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. MIN TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
REACHED IN MOST AREAS UNTIL DAYBREAK...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID
20S. SLIGHTLY COLDER MINS COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT SHOULD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP WITH
THE FRESH SNOW COVER IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...SOME MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN...COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON BRISK NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
AS THE FRONT PASSES...A PERIOD OF DEEPER MIXING AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING COULD ALLOW SOME VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY SPIKE IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEREAFTER...TEMPS SHOULD FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL TRACK AND IMPACTS FROM A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME RECENT 00Z/24 GEFS AND SREF MEMBERS...AS
WELL AS THE 00Z/24 ECMWF...STILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
FOR THIS SYSTEM...ESP AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND POSSIBLY CAPTURES THE SFC FEATURE OFF THE LONG ISLAND OR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE VERY LEAST...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ABUNDANT IN THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
SUN NT/MON AM...WITH MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO FOR MANY AREAS...WITH EVEN COLDER MINS POSSIBLE SHOULD
THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BE THINNER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
WINDS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...SO NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. ON MONDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE TEENS
IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT WILL BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE.

ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IT WILL BE A TOUGH CALL AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT A COASTAL LOW IMPACTS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FA. THE ECMWF
IS DECIDEDLY WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK FROM THE GFS AND GGEM
POSITIONS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS A SPRAWLING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT BUILDS EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE SWEEPING EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF CAPE COD WITH A TRAILING
TROUGH AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR REGION. SINCE THIS IS FAR OUT
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND MUCH CAN CHANGE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
UPPER TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDS AT KALB AND MAINLY VFR CONDS AT KGFL.
THIS IS A RESULT OF A COASTAL LOW JUST EAST OF DELAWARE OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS ARE MOVING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE KPOU AND KPSF TAF SITES WITH
KALB ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THESE BANDS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED AT KGFL...SO WILL HANDLE WITH A VCSH FOR NOW AT
THAT LOCATION.

AS THIS STORM INTENSIFIES TO OUR EAST...THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
TO SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY VFR BTWN 18Z AND 22Z.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH CIGS GENERALLY OVC035.

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE TO
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY SATURDAY NIGHT.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS AND RECENTLY HAS EXHIBITED A DECREASE IN GAGE
LEVELS /BELOW FLOOD STAGE/.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ061-063>066.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 241123
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
623 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR AREAS FROM MAINLY THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER LITCHFIELD COUNTY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPANDED INTO WESTERN ULSTER
CO...

     WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITCHFIELD
CO...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
BERKSHIRES...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...AND
EASTERN WINDHAM CO VT...

AS OF 415 AM EST...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ARE NOW
TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS LITCHFIELD CO AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXTENDING
NORTH AND WEST INTO THE SE CATSKILLS. SNOWFALL RATES PER RADAR
ESTIMATES ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES PER HOUR OR GREATER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO.

WE EXPECT BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NW CT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW EXTENDING FARTHER N AND W THROUGH THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND INTERSTATE
90 IN NY STATE AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...AND SHOULD REACH SE VT BETWEEN 8-10 AM.
THIS NORTHERN EDGE MAY EXPAND SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W AFTER
SUNRISE INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY/CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SARATOGA COUNTY BY
MID MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND THEN WEAKENING OR RECEDING FROM NW
TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE PRECIP BECOMES ALL SNOW ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
5-9 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS LITCHFIELD CO...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BERKSHIRE CO...WITH GENERALLY 3-6 INCHES EXPECTED
FURTHER N AND W ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. HAVE EXPANDED THE 3-6
INCH SNOWFALL RANGE INTO WESTERN ULSTER CO...HENCE THE EXPANSION
OF THE ADVISORY.

TRICKIER SNOWFALL FORECAST TO THE N AND W...WHERE DRIER AIR AND
SLIGHTLY LESS DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL FALL ACROSS THE CAPITAL
REGION...HIGHEST TO THE S AND E...AND GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS
EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION/EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE SARATOGA REGION.

AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY EMBEDDED BANDING
FEATURES...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY GREATER SNOWFALL ACCUMS
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN
VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING COASTAL STORM...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AT TIMES...AND
SHOULD ALSO KEEP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASES IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THEN
EXPANDING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL
AS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...OR PERHAPS EMBEDDED SQUALLS COULD ALSO DEVELOP...AND
POSSIBLY EXTEND INTO VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. SNOWFALL
ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
BY DAYBREAK...AROUND AN INCH ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN
VT/NW MA...AND A COATING TO UP TO AN INCH IN AREAS WHICH
EXPERIENCE ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS...INCLUDING SOME
VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. MIN TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
REACHED IN MOST AREAS UNTIL DAYBREAK...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID
20S. SLIGHTLY COLDER MINS COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT SHOULD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP WITH
THE FRESH SNOW COVER IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...SOME MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN...COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON BRISK NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
AS THE FRONT PASSES...A PERIOD OF DEEPER MIXING AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING COULD ALLOW SOME VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY SPIKE IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEREAFTER...TEMPS SHOULD FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL TRACK AND IMPACTS FROM A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME RECENT 00Z/24 GEFS AND SREF MEMBERS...AS
WELL AS THE 00Z/24 ECMWF...STILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
FOR THIS SYSTEM...ESP AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND POSSIBLY CAPTURES THE SFC FEATURE OFF THE LONG ISLAND OR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE VERY LEAST...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ABUNDANT IN THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
SUN NT/MON AM...WITH MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO FOR MANY AREAS...WITH EVEN COLDER MINS POSSIBLE SHOULD
THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BE THINNER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
WINDS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...SO NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. ON MONDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE TEENS
IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT WILL BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE.

ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IT WILL BE A TOUGH CALL AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT A COASTAL LOW IMPACTS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FA. THE ECMWF
IS DECIDEDLY WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK FROM THE GFS AND GGEM
POSITIONS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS A SPRAWLING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT BUILDS EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE SWEEPING EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF CAPE COD WITH A TRAILING
TROUGH AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR REGION. SINCE THIS IS FAR OUT
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND MUCH CAN CHANGE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
UPPER TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDS AT KALB AND MAINLY VFR CONDS AT KGFL.
THIS IS A RESULT OF A COASTAL LOW JUST EAST OF DELAWARE OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS ARE MOVING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE KPOU AND KPSF TAF SITES WITH
KALB ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THESE BANDS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED AT KGFL...SO WILL HANDLE WITH A VCSH FOR NOW AT
THAT LOCATION.

AS THIS STORM INTENSIFIES TO OUR EAST...THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
TO SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY VFR BTWN 18Z AND 22Z.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH CIGS GENERALLY OVC035.

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE TO
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY SATURDAY NIGHT.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS AND RECENTLY HAS EXHIBITED A DECREASE IN GAGE
LEVELS /BELOW FLOOD STAGE/.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ061-063>066.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 241123
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
623 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR AREAS FROM MAINLY THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER LITCHFIELD COUNTY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPANDED INTO WESTERN ULSTER
CO...

     WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITCHFIELD
CO...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
BERKSHIRES...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...AND
EASTERN WINDHAM CO VT...

AS OF 415 AM EST...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ARE NOW
TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS LITCHFIELD CO AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXTENDING
NORTH AND WEST INTO THE SE CATSKILLS. SNOWFALL RATES PER RADAR
ESTIMATES ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES PER HOUR OR GREATER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO.

WE EXPECT BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NW CT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW EXTENDING FARTHER N AND W THROUGH THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND INTERSTATE
90 IN NY STATE AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...AND SHOULD REACH SE VT BETWEEN 8-10 AM.
THIS NORTHERN EDGE MAY EXPAND SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W AFTER
SUNRISE INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY/CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SARATOGA COUNTY BY
MID MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND THEN WEAKENING OR RECEDING FROM NW
TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE PRECIP BECOMES ALL SNOW ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
5-9 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS LITCHFIELD CO...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BERKSHIRE CO...WITH GENERALLY 3-6 INCHES EXPECTED
FURTHER N AND W ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. HAVE EXPANDED THE 3-6
INCH SNOWFALL RANGE INTO WESTERN ULSTER CO...HENCE THE EXPANSION
OF THE ADVISORY.

TRICKIER SNOWFALL FORECAST TO THE N AND W...WHERE DRIER AIR AND
SLIGHTLY LESS DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL FALL ACROSS THE CAPITAL
REGION...HIGHEST TO THE S AND E...AND GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS
EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION/EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE SARATOGA REGION.

AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY EMBEDDED BANDING
FEATURES...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY GREATER SNOWFALL ACCUMS
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN
VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING COASTAL STORM...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AT TIMES...AND
SHOULD ALSO KEEP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASES IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THEN
EXPANDING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL
AS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...OR PERHAPS EMBEDDED SQUALLS COULD ALSO DEVELOP...AND
POSSIBLY EXTEND INTO VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. SNOWFALL
ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
BY DAYBREAK...AROUND AN INCH ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN
VT/NW MA...AND A COATING TO UP TO AN INCH IN AREAS WHICH
EXPERIENCE ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS...INCLUDING SOME
VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. MIN TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
REACHED IN MOST AREAS UNTIL DAYBREAK...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID
20S. SLIGHTLY COLDER MINS COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT SHOULD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP WITH
THE FRESH SNOW COVER IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...SOME MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN...COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON BRISK NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
AS THE FRONT PASSES...A PERIOD OF DEEPER MIXING AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING COULD ALLOW SOME VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY SPIKE IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEREAFTER...TEMPS SHOULD FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL TRACK AND IMPACTS FROM A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME RECENT 00Z/24 GEFS AND SREF MEMBERS...AS
WELL AS THE 00Z/24 ECMWF...STILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
FOR THIS SYSTEM...ESP AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND POSSIBLY CAPTURES THE SFC FEATURE OFF THE LONG ISLAND OR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE VERY LEAST...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ABUNDANT IN THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
SUN NT/MON AM...WITH MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO FOR MANY AREAS...WITH EVEN COLDER MINS POSSIBLE SHOULD
THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BE THINNER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
WINDS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...SO NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. ON MONDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE TEENS
IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT WILL BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE.

ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IT WILL BE A TOUGH CALL AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT A COASTAL LOW IMPACTS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FA. THE ECMWF
IS DECIDEDLY WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK FROM THE GFS AND GGEM
POSITIONS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS A SPRAWLING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT BUILDS EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE SWEEPING EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF CAPE COD WITH A TRAILING
TROUGH AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR REGION. SINCE THIS IS FAR OUT
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND MUCH CAN CHANGE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
UPPER TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDS AT KALB AND MAINLY VFR CONDS AT KGFL.
THIS IS A RESULT OF A COASTAL LOW JUST EAST OF DELAWARE OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS ARE MOVING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE KPOU AND KPSF TAF SITES WITH
KALB ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THESE BANDS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED AT KGFL...SO WILL HANDLE WITH A VCSH FOR NOW AT
THAT LOCATION.

AS THIS STORM INTENSIFIES TO OUR EAST...THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
TO SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY VFR BTWN 18Z AND 22Z.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH CIGS GENERALLY OVC035.

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE TO
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY SATURDAY NIGHT.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS AND RECENTLY HAS EXHIBITED A DECREASE IN GAGE
LEVELS /BELOW FLOOD STAGE/.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ061-063>066.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 241115
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
615 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ARCTIC COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 320 AM EST SATURDAY...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE DAY. WE`LL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TODAY. FIRST LOW WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF OUR CWA ACROSS
CENTRAL QUEBEC. SECOND LOW WILL PASS FROM MID ATLANTIC REGION
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CLOSELY CENTERED AROUND THAT LOW...THEREFORE
LITTLE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA. HAVE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN
RUTLAND...WINDSOR AND ORANGE COUNTIES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT...JUST ONE TO TWO INCHES. MEANWHILE WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO OUR NORTH THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. TODAY IS THE LAST CHANCE AT ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO CROSSES
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOME DECENT VORTICITY
ADVECTION. MINS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES HANG AROUND TWENTY AS FRONT
TAKES THE LONGEST TO REACH THERE. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THEN WIND DOWN TOWARDS MORNING. ONLY EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE AREA FROM CANADA BRINGING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. MAY
SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE DAYTIME
HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
COLDER OF THE TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE...SOME -20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EST SATURDAY...QUIET...COLD AND GENERALLY DRY MID-
WINTER CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME AS BROAD LONGWAVE POLAR TROUGH REMAINS ATOP THE
NORTHEAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED BENEATH. DID OFFER AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHSN FAR EAST/SOUTH DURING TUESDAY AS
OFFSHORE SYSTEM PASSES NEAR THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK. THIS IS MAINLY
OUT OF RESPECT FOR MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHICH SHOW A
SOMEWHAT BROADER WESTERN EXTENT TO THE QPF FIELD OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THIS
MORNING`S UKMET...GFS AND GEM IS FOR A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST AND
THIS IS WHAT I`LL LEAN TOWARD...ESP SINCE BENCHMARK SYSTEMS ARE
USUALLY MINIMAL PLAYERS FOR US.

ONLY OTHER NOTABLE CHANCE OF PCPN WILL OCCUR LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVANCE
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN SHOWING BROAD CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
LOOKING AT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING REALLY ONLY
LIGHT SHSN HERE AND THERE WITH THE BEST SHOT OF ANY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS GIVEN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...BKN/OVC MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
AS OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
LITTLE IMPACT TO AREA TERMINALS. EXCEPTION AT KMSS TERMINAL WHERE
MORE PERSISTENT MVFR STRATUS EXPECTED WITH CIGS GENERALLY FROM
015-020 AGL. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 5-12 KTS. AFTER 22Z
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST WITH A
GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR AND INCREASING CHC OF
FLURRIES/SHSN. FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR IN THE 05-10Z TIME FRAME
WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WGH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 241115
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
615 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ARCTIC COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 320 AM EST SATURDAY...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE DAY. WE`LL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TODAY. FIRST LOW WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF OUR CWA ACROSS
CENTRAL QUEBEC. SECOND LOW WILL PASS FROM MID ATLANTIC REGION
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CLOSELY CENTERED AROUND THAT LOW...THEREFORE
LITTLE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA. HAVE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN
RUTLAND...WINDSOR AND ORANGE COUNTIES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT...JUST ONE TO TWO INCHES. MEANWHILE WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO OUR NORTH THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. TODAY IS THE LAST CHANCE AT ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO CROSSES
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOME DECENT VORTICITY
ADVECTION. MINS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES HANG AROUND TWENTY AS FRONT
TAKES THE LONGEST TO REACH THERE. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THEN WIND DOWN TOWARDS MORNING. ONLY EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE AREA FROM CANADA BRINGING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. MAY
SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE DAYTIME
HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
COLDER OF THE TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE...SOME -20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EST SATURDAY...QUIET...COLD AND GENERALLY DRY MID-
WINTER CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME AS BROAD LONGWAVE POLAR TROUGH REMAINS ATOP THE
NORTHEAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED BENEATH. DID OFFER AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHSN FAR EAST/SOUTH DURING TUESDAY AS
OFFSHORE SYSTEM PASSES NEAR THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK. THIS IS MAINLY
OUT OF RESPECT FOR MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHICH SHOW A
SOMEWHAT BROADER WESTERN EXTENT TO THE QPF FIELD OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THIS
MORNING`S UKMET...GFS AND GEM IS FOR A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST AND
THIS IS WHAT I`LL LEAN TOWARD...ESP SINCE BENCHMARK SYSTEMS ARE
USUALLY MINIMAL PLAYERS FOR US.

ONLY OTHER NOTABLE CHANCE OF PCPN WILL OCCUR LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVANCE
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN SHOWING BROAD CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
LOOKING AT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING REALLY ONLY
LIGHT SHSN HERE AND THERE WITH THE BEST SHOT OF ANY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS GIVEN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...BKN/OVC MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
AS OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
LITTLE IMPACT TO AREA TERMINALS. EXCEPTION AT KMSS TERMINAL WHERE
MORE PERSISTENT MVFR STRATUS EXPECTED WITH CIGS GENERALLY FROM
015-020 AGL. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 5-12 KTS. AFTER 22Z
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST WITH A
GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR AND INCREASING CHC OF
FLURRIES/SHSN. FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR IN THE 05-10Z TIME FRAME
WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WGH




000
FXUS61 KALY 240922
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
422 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR AREAS FROM MAINLY THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER LITCHFIELD COUNTY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPANDED INTO WESTERN ULSTER
CO...

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITCHFIELD
CO...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
BERKSHIRES...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...AND
EASTERN WINDHAM CO VT...

AS OF 415 AM EST...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ARE NOW
TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS LITCHFIELD CO AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXTENDING
NORTH AND WEST INTO THE SE CATSKILLS. SNOWFALL RATES PER RADAR
ESTIMATES ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES PER HOUR OR GREATER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO.

WE EXPECT BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NW CT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW EXTENDING FARTHER N AND W THROUGH THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND INTERSTATE
90 IN NY STATE AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...AND SHOULD REACH SE VT BETWEEN 8-10 AM.
THIS NORTHERN EDGE MAY EXPAND SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W AFTER
SUNRISE INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY/CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SARATOGA COUNTY BY
MID MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND THEN WEAKENING OR RECEDING FROM NW
TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE PRECIP BECOMES ALL SNOW ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
5-9 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS LITCHFIELD CO...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BERKSHIRE CO...WITH GENERALLY 3-6 INCHES EXPECTED
FURTHER N AND W ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. HAVE EXPANDED THE 3-6
INCH SNOWFALL RANGE INTO WESTERN ULSTER CO...HENCE THE EXPANSION
OF THE ADVISORY.

TRICKIER SNOWFALL FORECAST TO THE N AND W...WHERE DRIER AIR AND
SLIGHTLY LESS DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL FALL ACROSS THE CAPITAL
REGION...HIGHEST TO THE S AND E...AND GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS
EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION/EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE SARATOGA REGION.

AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY EMBEDDED BANDING
FEATURES...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY GREATER SNOWFALL ACCUMS
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN
VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING COASTAL STORM...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AT TIMES...AND
SHOULD ALSO KEEP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASES IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THEN
EXPANDING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL
AS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...OR PERHAPS EMBEDDED SQUALLS COULD ALSO DEVELOP...AND
POSSIBLY EXTEND INTO VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. SNOWFALL
ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
BY DAYBREAK...AROUND AN INCH ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN
VT/NW MA...AND A COATING TO UP TO AN INCH IN AREAS WHICH
EXPERIENCE ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS...INCLUDING SOME
VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. MIN TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
REACHED IN MOST AREAS UNTIL DAYBREAK...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID
20S. SLIGHTLY COLDER MINS COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT SHOULD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP WITH
THE FRESH SNOW COVER IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...SOME MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN...COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON BRISK NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
AS THE FRONT PASSES...A PERIOD OF DEEPER MIXING AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING COULD ALLOW SOME VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY SPIKE IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEREAFTER...TEMPS SHOULD FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL TRACK AND IMPACTS FROM A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME RECENT 00Z/24 GEFS AND SREF MEMBERS...AS
WELL AS THE 00Z/24 ECMWF...STILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
FOR THIS SYSTEM...ESP AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND POSSIBLY CAPTURES THE SFC FEATURE OFF THE LONG ISLAND OR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE VERY LEAST...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ABUNDANT IN THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
SUN NT/MON AM...WITH MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO FOR MANY AREAS...WITH EVEN COLDER MINS POSSIBLE SHOULD
THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BE THINNER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
WINDS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...SO NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. ON MONDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE TEENS
IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT WILL BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE.

ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IT WILL BE A TOUGH CALL AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT A COASTAL LOW IMPACTS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FA. THE ECMWF
IS DECIDEDLY WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK FROM THE GFS AND GGEM
POSITIONS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS A SPRAWLING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT BUILDS EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE SWEEPING EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF CAPE COD WITH A TRAILING
TROUGH AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR REGION. SINCE THIS IS FAR OUT
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND MUCH CAN CHANGE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
UPPER TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AS
THE STORM DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
SATURDAY. SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH AND IMPACT KPOU-KPSF FIRST WITH A
DROP TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. THEN THIS SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO KALB AROUND SUNRISE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. FOR
KGFL...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS THIS
LOCATION SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST FROM IMPACTS OF THIS
STORM. A PERIOD OF IFR IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING FROM KALB-
KPOU-KPSF WHEN THE GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

AS THIS STORM INTENSIFIES TO OUR EAST...THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
TO SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY VFR BTWN 22Z AND 00Z.

WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A TENDENCY TO BECOME
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
10KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE TO
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY SATURDAY NIGHT.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS AND RECENTLY HAS EXHIBITED A DECREASE IN GAGE
LEVELS /BELOW FLOOD STAGE/.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ061-063>066.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV







000
FXUS61 KALY 240922
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
422 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR AREAS FROM MAINLY THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER LITCHFIELD COUNTY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPANDED INTO WESTERN ULSTER
CO...

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITCHFIELD
CO...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
BERKSHIRES...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...AND
EASTERN WINDHAM CO VT...

AS OF 415 AM EST...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ARE NOW
TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS LITCHFIELD CO AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXTENDING
NORTH AND WEST INTO THE SE CATSKILLS. SNOWFALL RATES PER RADAR
ESTIMATES ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES PER HOUR OR GREATER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO.

WE EXPECT BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NW CT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW EXTENDING FARTHER N AND W THROUGH THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND INTERSTATE
90 IN NY STATE AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...AND SHOULD REACH SE VT BETWEEN 8-10 AM.
THIS NORTHERN EDGE MAY EXPAND SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W AFTER
SUNRISE INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY/CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SARATOGA COUNTY BY
MID MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND THEN WEAKENING OR RECEDING FROM NW
TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE PRECIP BECOMES ALL SNOW ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
5-9 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS LITCHFIELD CO...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BERKSHIRE CO...WITH GENERALLY 3-6 INCHES EXPECTED
FURTHER N AND W ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. HAVE EXPANDED THE 3-6
INCH SNOWFALL RANGE INTO WESTERN ULSTER CO...HENCE THE EXPANSION
OF THE ADVISORY.

TRICKIER SNOWFALL FORECAST TO THE N AND W...WHERE DRIER AIR AND
SLIGHTLY LESS DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL FALL ACROSS THE CAPITAL
REGION...HIGHEST TO THE S AND E...AND GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS
EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION/EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE SARATOGA REGION.

AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY EMBEDDED BANDING
FEATURES...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY GREATER SNOWFALL ACCUMS
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN
VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING COASTAL STORM...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AT TIMES...AND
SHOULD ALSO KEEP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASES IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THEN
EXPANDING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL
AS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...OR PERHAPS EMBEDDED SQUALLS COULD ALSO DEVELOP...AND
POSSIBLY EXTEND INTO VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. SNOWFALL
ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
BY DAYBREAK...AROUND AN INCH ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN
VT/NW MA...AND A COATING TO UP TO AN INCH IN AREAS WHICH
EXPERIENCE ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS...INCLUDING SOME
VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. MIN TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
REACHED IN MOST AREAS UNTIL DAYBREAK...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID
20S. SLIGHTLY COLDER MINS COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT SHOULD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP WITH
THE FRESH SNOW COVER IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...SOME MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN...COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON BRISK NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
AS THE FRONT PASSES...A PERIOD OF DEEPER MIXING AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING COULD ALLOW SOME VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY SPIKE IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEREAFTER...TEMPS SHOULD FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL TRACK AND IMPACTS FROM A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME RECENT 00Z/24 GEFS AND SREF MEMBERS...AS
WELL AS THE 00Z/24 ECMWF...STILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
FOR THIS SYSTEM...ESP AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND POSSIBLY CAPTURES THE SFC FEATURE OFF THE LONG ISLAND OR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE VERY LEAST...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ABUNDANT IN THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
SUN NT/MON AM...WITH MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO FOR MANY AREAS...WITH EVEN COLDER MINS POSSIBLE SHOULD
THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BE THINNER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
WINDS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...SO NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. ON MONDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE TEENS
IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT WILL BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE.

ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IT WILL BE A TOUGH CALL AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT A COASTAL LOW IMPACTS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FA. THE ECMWF
IS DECIDEDLY WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK FROM THE GFS AND GGEM
POSITIONS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS A SPRAWLING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT BUILDS EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE SWEEPING EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF CAPE COD WITH A TRAILING
TROUGH AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR REGION. SINCE THIS IS FAR OUT
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND MUCH CAN CHANGE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
UPPER TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AS
THE STORM DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
SATURDAY. SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH AND IMPACT KPOU-KPSF FIRST WITH A
DROP TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. THEN THIS SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO KALB AROUND SUNRISE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. FOR
KGFL...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS THIS
LOCATION SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST FROM IMPACTS OF THIS
STORM. A PERIOD OF IFR IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING FROM KALB-
KPOU-KPSF WHEN THE GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

AS THIS STORM INTENSIFIES TO OUR EAST...THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
TO SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY VFR BTWN 22Z AND 00Z.

WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A TENDENCY TO BECOME
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
10KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE TO
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY SATURDAY NIGHT.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS AND RECENTLY HAS EXHIBITED A DECREASE IN GAGE
LEVELS /BELOW FLOOD STAGE/.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ061-063>066.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 240922
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
422 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR AREAS FROM MAINLY THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER LITCHFIELD COUNTY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPANDED INTO WESTERN ULSTER
CO...

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITCHFIELD
CO...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
BERKSHIRES...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...AND
EASTERN WINDHAM CO VT...

AS OF 415 AM EST...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ARE NOW
TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS LITCHFIELD CO AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXTENDING
NORTH AND WEST INTO THE SE CATSKILLS. SNOWFALL RATES PER RADAR
ESTIMATES ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES PER HOUR OR GREATER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO.

WE EXPECT BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NW CT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW EXTENDING FARTHER N AND W THROUGH THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND INTERSTATE
90 IN NY STATE AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...AND SHOULD REACH SE VT BETWEEN 8-10 AM.
THIS NORTHERN EDGE MAY EXPAND SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W AFTER
SUNRISE INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY/CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SARATOGA COUNTY BY
MID MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND THEN WEAKENING OR RECEDING FROM NW
TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE PRECIP BECOMES ALL SNOW ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
5-9 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS LITCHFIELD CO...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BERKSHIRE CO...WITH GENERALLY 3-6 INCHES EXPECTED
FURTHER N AND W ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. HAVE EXPANDED THE 3-6
INCH SNOWFALL RANGE INTO WESTERN ULSTER CO...HENCE THE EXPANSION
OF THE ADVISORY.

TRICKIER SNOWFALL FORECAST TO THE N AND W...WHERE DRIER AIR AND
SLIGHTLY LESS DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL FALL ACROSS THE CAPITAL
REGION...HIGHEST TO THE S AND E...AND GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS
EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION/EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE SARATOGA REGION.

AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY EMBEDDED BANDING
FEATURES...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY GREATER SNOWFALL ACCUMS
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN
VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING COASTAL STORM...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AT TIMES...AND
SHOULD ALSO KEEP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASES IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THEN
EXPANDING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL
AS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...OR PERHAPS EMBEDDED SQUALLS COULD ALSO DEVELOP...AND
POSSIBLY EXTEND INTO VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. SNOWFALL
ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
BY DAYBREAK...AROUND AN INCH ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN
VT/NW MA...AND A COATING TO UP TO AN INCH IN AREAS WHICH
EXPERIENCE ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS...INCLUDING SOME
VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. MIN TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
REACHED IN MOST AREAS UNTIL DAYBREAK...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID
20S. SLIGHTLY COLDER MINS COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT SHOULD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP WITH
THE FRESH SNOW COVER IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...SOME MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN...COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON BRISK NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
AS THE FRONT PASSES...A PERIOD OF DEEPER MIXING AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING COULD ALLOW SOME VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY SPIKE IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEREAFTER...TEMPS SHOULD FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL TRACK AND IMPACTS FROM A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME RECENT 00Z/24 GEFS AND SREF MEMBERS...AS
WELL AS THE 00Z/24 ECMWF...STILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
FOR THIS SYSTEM...ESP AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND POSSIBLY CAPTURES THE SFC FEATURE OFF THE LONG ISLAND OR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE VERY LEAST...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ABUNDANT IN THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
SUN NT/MON AM...WITH MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO FOR MANY AREAS...WITH EVEN COLDER MINS POSSIBLE SHOULD
THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BE THINNER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
WINDS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...SO NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. ON MONDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE TEENS
IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT WILL BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE.

ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IT WILL BE A TOUGH CALL AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT A COASTAL LOW IMPACTS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FA. THE ECMWF
IS DECIDEDLY WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK FROM THE GFS AND GGEM
POSITIONS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS A SPRAWLING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT BUILDS EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE SWEEPING EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF CAPE COD WITH A TRAILING
TROUGH AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR REGION. SINCE THIS IS FAR OUT
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND MUCH CAN CHANGE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
UPPER TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AS
THE STORM DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
SATURDAY. SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH AND IMPACT KPOU-KPSF FIRST WITH A
DROP TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. THEN THIS SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO KALB AROUND SUNRISE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. FOR
KGFL...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS THIS
LOCATION SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST FROM IMPACTS OF THIS
STORM. A PERIOD OF IFR IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING FROM KALB-
KPOU-KPSF WHEN THE GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

AS THIS STORM INTENSIFIES TO OUR EAST...THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
TO SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY VFR BTWN 22Z AND 00Z.

WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A TENDENCY TO BECOME
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
10KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE TO
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY SATURDAY NIGHT.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS AND RECENTLY HAS EXHIBITED A DECREASE IN GAGE
LEVELS /BELOW FLOOD STAGE/.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ061-063>066.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV







000
FXUS61 KALY 240922
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
422 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR AREAS FROM MAINLY THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER LITCHFIELD COUNTY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPANDED INTO WESTERN ULSTER
CO...

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITCHFIELD
CO...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
BERKSHIRES...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...AND
EASTERN WINDHAM CO VT...

AS OF 415 AM EST...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ARE NOW
TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS LITCHFIELD CO AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXTENDING
NORTH AND WEST INTO THE SE CATSKILLS. SNOWFALL RATES PER RADAR
ESTIMATES ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES PER HOUR OR GREATER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO.

WE EXPECT BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NW CT THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW EXTENDING FARTHER N AND W THROUGH THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND INTERSTATE
90 IN NY STATE AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...AND SHOULD REACH SE VT BETWEEN 8-10 AM.
THIS NORTHERN EDGE MAY EXPAND SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W AFTER
SUNRISE INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY/CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SARATOGA COUNTY BY
MID MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND THEN WEAKENING OR RECEDING FROM NW
TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE PRECIP BECOMES ALL SNOW ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
5-9 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS LITCHFIELD CO...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BERKSHIRE CO...WITH GENERALLY 3-6 INCHES EXPECTED
FURTHER N AND W ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. HAVE EXPANDED THE 3-6
INCH SNOWFALL RANGE INTO WESTERN ULSTER CO...HENCE THE EXPANSION
OF THE ADVISORY.

TRICKIER SNOWFALL FORECAST TO THE N AND W...WHERE DRIER AIR AND
SLIGHTLY LESS DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL FALL ACROSS THE CAPITAL
REGION...HIGHEST TO THE S AND E...AND GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS
EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION/EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE SARATOGA REGION.

AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY EMBEDDED BANDING
FEATURES...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY GREATER SNOWFALL ACCUMS
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN
VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING COASTAL STORM...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AT TIMES...AND
SHOULD ALSO KEEP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASES IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THEN
EXPANDING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL
AS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...OR PERHAPS EMBEDDED SQUALLS COULD ALSO DEVELOP...AND
POSSIBLY EXTEND INTO VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. SNOWFALL
ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
BY DAYBREAK...AROUND AN INCH ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN
VT/NW MA...AND A COATING TO UP TO AN INCH IN AREAS WHICH
EXPERIENCE ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS...INCLUDING SOME
VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. MIN TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
REACHED IN MOST AREAS UNTIL DAYBREAK...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID
20S. SLIGHTLY COLDER MINS COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT SHOULD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP WITH
THE FRESH SNOW COVER IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...SOME MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN...COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON BRISK NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
AS THE FRONT PASSES...A PERIOD OF DEEPER MIXING AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING COULD ALLOW SOME VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY SPIKE IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEREAFTER...TEMPS SHOULD FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL TRACK AND IMPACTS FROM A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME RECENT 00Z/24 GEFS AND SREF MEMBERS...AS
WELL AS THE 00Z/24 ECMWF...STILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
FOR THIS SYSTEM...ESP AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND POSSIBLY CAPTURES THE SFC FEATURE OFF THE LONG ISLAND OR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE VERY LEAST...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ABUNDANT IN THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
SUN NT/MON AM...WITH MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO FOR MANY AREAS...WITH EVEN COLDER MINS POSSIBLE SHOULD
THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BE THINNER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
WINDS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...SO NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. ON MONDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE TEENS
IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT WILL BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE.

ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IT WILL BE A TOUGH CALL AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT A COASTAL LOW IMPACTS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FA. THE ECMWF
IS DECIDEDLY WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK FROM THE GFS AND GGEM
POSITIONS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS A SPRAWLING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT BUILDS EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE SWEEPING EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF CAPE COD WITH A TRAILING
TROUGH AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR REGION. SINCE THIS IS FAR OUT
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND MUCH CAN CHANGE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
UPPER TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AS
THE STORM DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
SATURDAY. SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH AND IMPACT KPOU-KPSF FIRST WITH A
DROP TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. THEN THIS SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO KALB AROUND SUNRISE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. FOR
KGFL...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS THIS
LOCATION SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST FROM IMPACTS OF THIS
STORM. A PERIOD OF IFR IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING FROM KALB-
KPOU-KPSF WHEN THE GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

AS THIS STORM INTENSIFIES TO OUR EAST...THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
TO SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY VFR BTWN 22Z AND 00Z.

WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A TENDENCY TO BECOME
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
10KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE TO
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY SATURDAY NIGHT.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS AND RECENTLY HAS EXHIBITED A DECREASE IN GAGE
LEVELS /BELOW FLOOD STAGE/.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ061-063>066.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 240911
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
411 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA THIS MORNING
WILL PAST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND THEN TRACK UP INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
THE AREA AND INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GREATEST 3 HR PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE DELMARVA
REGION THIS MORNING WHERE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY
DEEPENING. STRONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT SNOWS AIDED BY A COUPLING
UPPER JET PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH TOTALS JUST OVER 3 INCHES. FARTHER TO THE SW
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PA...THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OVER 5 INCHES.
THE HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 1 TO 2 HOURS AT
TH COAST BEFORE A WARM AIR ALOFT CHANGES PCPN OVER TO A WINTRY MIX
WITH PLAIN RAIN LIKELY AT THE COAST BY MID MORNING. FARTHER
INLAND...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC...A MIX IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFT BEFORE ENDING A SNOW.

LATEST DUAL POL DATA SHOWS A CHANGEOVER THE SLEET AND RAIN 10 TO
20 MILES SOUTH OF LI. THIS SHOULD ADVANCE NORTH WITHING THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDES EASTERN LI AND
SE CT...WHERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH 3 INCHES
BASED ON CURRENT RATES.

00Z MODEL RUN PRODUCE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP THROUGH 8 AM...WITH
ANOTHER QUARTER TO HALF INCH FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH LESS AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN COASTAL AREAS. THE WINTER
STORM WARNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SW
INTERIOR CT SHOULD PUSH CLOSE TO 6 INCHES.

TEMPS WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY OF SLOWLY RISE INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 30S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
PCPN TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS EVE ACROSS FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S
INLAND....AND 25 TO 30 AT THE COAST. MOTORISTS WILL NEED TO BE
ALERT FOR THE REFREEZING OF STANDING WATER AND SLUSH.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SUN SENDS A DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR SUN EVE. HIGHS SUN WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S...WITH LOWS MON MORNING GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

NW GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN AFT BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW PRES
PUSHES TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC. A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...AND THEN TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. PREVIOUS MODELS
HAVE KEPT THE STORM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND THEN EAST OF THE
REGION AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST TO A POINT EAST OF CAPE COD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. 00Z NAM...00Z GFS...MOST GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE THIS PATTERN...AND KEEP
THE LOW TO THE EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THE 00Z ECMWF IS AN
OUTLIER IN THAT IT IS A BIT SLOWER AND A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST AS
OPPOSED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...AND SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL DIVE
INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL WRAP INTO THE DEPARTING SFC LOW
AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS LOW WILL ALSO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...FORMING A TIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME.

SHOULD THE ECMWF PAN OUT...IT COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA AS SNOW
WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM AS IT PASSES NEAR THE
BENCHMARK. SHOULD THE GFS/NAM PAN OUT...ANY SNOWFALL THAT FALLS WILL
BE LIGHT...BUT CHANCES WOULD BE MUCH LOWER AND CONFINED TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND THEN
CONFINE CHANCE POPS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED...AS
WITH STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
CLASSIC NOR`EASTER TO DEVELOP...BUT WHETHER SNOWFALL FROM IT IMPACTS
THE OKX FORECAST AREA REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

DRY CONDS FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST. WEAK LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPS
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. THESE TEMPS ARE SOME 10-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS RELATIVE TO NORMAL AT
NIGHT. WIND CHILLS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...POSSIBLY
FROM ZERO TO FIVE BELOW IN SOME AREAS...AND WIND CHILLS DURING THE
DAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS.

TEMPS WARM UP A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
...HIGH IMPACT AVIATION WINTER EVENT TODAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING.

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. A WINTRY MIX MOVES IN ALONG THE COAST AFTER 11Z AND FARTHER
INLAND BY AFTERNOON. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN A
CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW IS LIKELY AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

IN GENERAL...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. A TRACE OF ICE AND
SLEET IS ALSO LIKELY.

IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE IMPROVING BY
SATURDAY EVENING.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF MIXING AND CHANGEOVER AND
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.


.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. W TO NW WIND 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. WEST WIND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SNOW POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST WATERS THROUGH SUN
AFT...WITH A MARGINAL GALE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS BETWEEN
MORICHES INLET AND MONTAUK POINT. NLY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME NW
TONIGHT AND THEN WEST ON SUN AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE
INTO FROM JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVE TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON SUN.

WITH ANOTHER STRONG LOW IMPACTING THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS STARTING ON
MONDAY. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY. CONDS SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CONDS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY. THIS WILL FALL AS A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN...AND RAIN.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF COULD COME
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT COULD BE CONFINED
TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS HAPPENING.
DRY CONDS RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS WILL APPROACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN LI/NYC SOUTH SHORE BAYS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON SAT...LOCALLY TOUCHING MINOR THRESHOLDS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ007>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005-
     006.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067-
     069>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ068.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MPS/DW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV/DW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 240911
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
411 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA THIS MORNING
WILL PAST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND THEN TRACK UP INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
THE AREA AND INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GREATEST 3 HR PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE DELMARVA
REGION THIS MORNING WHERE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY
DEEPENING. STRONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT SNOWS AIDED BY A COUPLING
UPPER JET PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH TOTALS JUST OVER 3 INCHES. FARTHER TO THE SW
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PA...THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OVER 5 INCHES.
THE HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 1 TO 2 HOURS AT
TH COAST BEFORE A WARM AIR ALOFT CHANGES PCPN OVER TO A WINTRY MIX
WITH PLAIN RAIN LIKELY AT THE COAST BY MID MORNING. FARTHER
INLAND...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC...A MIX IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFT BEFORE ENDING A SNOW.

LATEST DUAL POL DATA SHOWS A CHANGEOVER THE SLEET AND RAIN 10 TO
20 MILES SOUTH OF LI. THIS SHOULD ADVANCE NORTH WITHING THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDES EASTERN LI AND
SE CT...WHERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH 3 INCHES
BASED ON CURRENT RATES.

00Z MODEL RUN PRODUCE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP THROUGH 8 AM...WITH
ANOTHER QUARTER TO HALF INCH FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH LESS AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN COASTAL AREAS. THE WINTER
STORM WARNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SW
INTERIOR CT SHOULD PUSH CLOSE TO 6 INCHES.

TEMPS WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY OF SLOWLY RISE INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 30S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
PCPN TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS EVE ACROSS FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S
INLAND....AND 25 TO 30 AT THE COAST. MOTORISTS WILL NEED TO BE
ALERT FOR THE REFREEZING OF STANDING WATER AND SLUSH.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SUN SENDS A DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR SUN EVE. HIGHS SUN WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S...WITH LOWS MON MORNING GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

NW GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN AFT BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW PRES
PUSHES TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC. A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...AND THEN TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. PREVIOUS MODELS
HAVE KEPT THE STORM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND THEN EAST OF THE
REGION AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST TO A POINT EAST OF CAPE COD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. 00Z NAM...00Z GFS...MOST GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE THIS PATTERN...AND KEEP
THE LOW TO THE EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THE 00Z ECMWF IS AN
OUTLIER IN THAT IT IS A BIT SLOWER AND A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST AS
OPPOSED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...AND SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL DIVE
INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL WRAP INTO THE DEPARTING SFC LOW
AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS LOW WILL ALSO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...FORMING A TIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME.

SHOULD THE ECMWF PAN OUT...IT COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA AS SNOW
WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM AS IT PASSES NEAR THE
BENCHMARK. SHOULD THE GFS/NAM PAN OUT...ANY SNOWFALL THAT FALLS WILL
BE LIGHT...BUT CHANCES WOULD BE MUCH LOWER AND CONFINED TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND THEN
CONFINE CHANCE POPS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED...AS
WITH STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
CLASSIC NOR`EASTER TO DEVELOP...BUT WHETHER SNOWFALL FROM IT IMPACTS
THE OKX FORECAST AREA REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

DRY CONDS FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST. WEAK LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPS
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. THESE TEMPS ARE SOME 10-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS RELATIVE TO NORMAL AT
NIGHT. WIND CHILLS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...POSSIBLY
FROM ZERO TO FIVE BELOW IN SOME AREAS...AND WIND CHILLS DURING THE
DAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS.

TEMPS WARM UP A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
...HIGH IMPACT AVIATION WINTER EVENT TODAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING.

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. A WINTRY MIX MOVES IN ALONG THE COAST AFTER 11Z AND FARTHER
INLAND BY AFTERNOON. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN A
CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW IS LIKELY AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

IN GENERAL...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. A TRACE OF ICE AND
SLEET IS ALSO LIKELY.

IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE IMPROVING BY
SATURDAY EVENING.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF MIXING AND CHANGEOVER AND
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.


.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. W TO NW WIND 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. WEST WIND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SNOW POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST WATERS THROUGH SUN
AFT...WITH A MARGINAL GALE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS BETWEEN
MORICHES INLET AND MONTAUK POINT. NLY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME NW
TONIGHT AND THEN WEST ON SUN AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE
INTO FROM JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVE TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON SUN.

WITH ANOTHER STRONG LOW IMPACTING THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS STARTING ON
MONDAY. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY. CONDS SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CONDS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY. THIS WILL FALL AS A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN...AND RAIN.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF COULD COME
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT COULD BE CONFINED
TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS HAPPENING.
DRY CONDS RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS WILL APPROACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN LI/NYC SOUTH SHORE BAYS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON SAT...LOCALLY TOUCHING MINOR THRESHOLDS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ007>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005-
     006.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067-
     069>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ068.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MPS/DW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV/DW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 240911
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
411 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA THIS MORNING
WILL PAST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND THEN TRACK UP INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
THE AREA AND INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GREATEST 3 HR PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE DELMARVA
REGION THIS MORNING WHERE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY
DEEPENING. STRONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT SNOWS AIDED BY A COUPLING
UPPER JET PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH TOTALS JUST OVER 3 INCHES. FARTHER TO THE SW
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PA...THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OVER 5 INCHES.
THE HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 1 TO 2 HOURS AT
TH COAST BEFORE A WARM AIR ALOFT CHANGES PCPN OVER TO A WINTRY MIX
WITH PLAIN RAIN LIKELY AT THE COAST BY MID MORNING. FARTHER
INLAND...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC...A MIX IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFT BEFORE ENDING A SNOW.

LATEST DUAL POL DATA SHOWS A CHANGEOVER THE SLEET AND RAIN 10 TO
20 MILES SOUTH OF LI. THIS SHOULD ADVANCE NORTH WITHING THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDES EASTERN LI AND
SE CT...WHERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH 3 INCHES
BASED ON CURRENT RATES.

00Z MODEL RUN PRODUCE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP THROUGH 8 AM...WITH
ANOTHER QUARTER TO HALF INCH FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH LESS AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN COASTAL AREAS. THE WINTER
STORM WARNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SW
INTERIOR CT SHOULD PUSH CLOSE TO 6 INCHES.

TEMPS WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY OF SLOWLY RISE INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 30S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
PCPN TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS EVE ACROSS FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S
INLAND....AND 25 TO 30 AT THE COAST. MOTORISTS WILL NEED TO BE
ALERT FOR THE REFREEZING OF STANDING WATER AND SLUSH.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SUN SENDS A DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR SUN EVE. HIGHS SUN WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S...WITH LOWS MON MORNING GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

NW GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN AFT BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW PRES
PUSHES TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC. A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...AND THEN TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. PREVIOUS MODELS
HAVE KEPT THE STORM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND THEN EAST OF THE
REGION AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST TO A POINT EAST OF CAPE COD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. 00Z NAM...00Z GFS...MOST GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE THIS PATTERN...AND KEEP
THE LOW TO THE EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THE 00Z ECMWF IS AN
OUTLIER IN THAT IT IS A BIT SLOWER AND A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST AS
OPPOSED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...AND SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL DIVE
INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL WRAP INTO THE DEPARTING SFC LOW
AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS LOW WILL ALSO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...FORMING A TIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME.

SHOULD THE ECMWF PAN OUT...IT COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA AS SNOW
WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM AS IT PASSES NEAR THE
BENCHMARK. SHOULD THE GFS/NAM PAN OUT...ANY SNOWFALL THAT FALLS WILL
BE LIGHT...BUT CHANCES WOULD BE MUCH LOWER AND CONFINED TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND THEN
CONFINE CHANCE POPS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED...AS
WITH STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
CLASSIC NOR`EASTER TO DEVELOP...BUT WHETHER SNOWFALL FROM IT IMPACTS
THE OKX FORECAST AREA REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

DRY CONDS FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST. WEAK LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPS
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. THESE TEMPS ARE SOME 10-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS RELATIVE TO NORMAL AT
NIGHT. WIND CHILLS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...POSSIBLY
FROM ZERO TO FIVE BELOW IN SOME AREAS...AND WIND CHILLS DURING THE
DAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS.

TEMPS WARM UP A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
...HIGH IMPACT AVIATION WINTER EVENT TODAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING.

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. A WINTRY MIX MOVES IN ALONG THE COAST AFTER 11Z AND FARTHER
INLAND BY AFTERNOON. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN A
CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW IS LIKELY AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

IN GENERAL...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. A TRACE OF ICE AND
SLEET IS ALSO LIKELY.

IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE IMPROVING BY
SATURDAY EVENING.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF MIXING AND CHANGEOVER AND
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.


.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. W TO NW WIND 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. WEST WIND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SNOW POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST WATERS THROUGH SUN
AFT...WITH A MARGINAL GALE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS BETWEEN
MORICHES INLET AND MONTAUK POINT. NLY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME NW
TONIGHT AND THEN WEST ON SUN AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE
INTO FROM JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVE TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON SUN.

WITH ANOTHER STRONG LOW IMPACTING THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS STARTING ON
MONDAY. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY. CONDS SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CONDS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY. THIS WILL FALL AS A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN...AND RAIN.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF COULD COME
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT COULD BE CONFINED
TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS HAPPENING.
DRY CONDS RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS WILL APPROACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN LI/NYC SOUTH SHORE BAYS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON SAT...LOCALLY TOUCHING MINOR THRESHOLDS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ007>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005-
     006.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067-
     069>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ068.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MPS/DW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV/DW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 240911
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
411 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA THIS MORNING
WILL PAST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND THEN TRACK UP INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
THE AREA AND INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GREATEST 3 HR PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE DELMARVA
REGION THIS MORNING WHERE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY
DEEPENING. STRONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT SNOWS AIDED BY A COUPLING
UPPER JET PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH TOTALS JUST OVER 3 INCHES. FARTHER TO THE SW
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PA...THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OVER 5 INCHES.
THE HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 1 TO 2 HOURS AT
TH COAST BEFORE A WARM AIR ALOFT CHANGES PCPN OVER TO A WINTRY MIX
WITH PLAIN RAIN LIKELY AT THE COAST BY MID MORNING. FARTHER
INLAND...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC...A MIX IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFT BEFORE ENDING A SNOW.

LATEST DUAL POL DATA SHOWS A CHANGEOVER THE SLEET AND RAIN 10 TO
20 MILES SOUTH OF LI. THIS SHOULD ADVANCE NORTH WITHING THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDES EASTERN LI AND
SE CT...WHERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH 3 INCHES
BASED ON CURRENT RATES.

00Z MODEL RUN PRODUCE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP THROUGH 8 AM...WITH
ANOTHER QUARTER TO HALF INCH FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH LESS AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN COASTAL AREAS. THE WINTER
STORM WARNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SW
INTERIOR CT SHOULD PUSH CLOSE TO 6 INCHES.

TEMPS WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY OF SLOWLY RISE INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 30S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
PCPN TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS EVE ACROSS FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S
INLAND....AND 25 TO 30 AT THE COAST. MOTORISTS WILL NEED TO BE
ALERT FOR THE REFREEZING OF STANDING WATER AND SLUSH.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SUN SENDS A DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR SUN EVE. HIGHS SUN WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S...WITH LOWS MON MORNING GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

NW GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN AFT BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW PRES
PUSHES TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC. A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...AND THEN TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. PREVIOUS MODELS
HAVE KEPT THE STORM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND THEN EAST OF THE
REGION AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST TO A POINT EAST OF CAPE COD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. 00Z NAM...00Z GFS...MOST GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE THIS PATTERN...AND KEEP
THE LOW TO THE EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THE 00Z ECMWF IS AN
OUTLIER IN THAT IT IS A BIT SLOWER AND A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST AS
OPPOSED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...AND SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL DIVE
INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL WRAP INTO THE DEPARTING SFC LOW
AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS LOW WILL ALSO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...FORMING A TIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME.

SHOULD THE ECMWF PAN OUT...IT COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA AS SNOW
WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM AS IT PASSES NEAR THE
BENCHMARK. SHOULD THE GFS/NAM PAN OUT...ANY SNOWFALL THAT FALLS WILL
BE LIGHT...BUT CHANCES WOULD BE MUCH LOWER AND CONFINED TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND THEN
CONFINE CHANCE POPS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED...AS
WITH STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
CLASSIC NOR`EASTER TO DEVELOP...BUT WHETHER SNOWFALL FROM IT IMPACTS
THE OKX FORECAST AREA REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

DRY CONDS FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST. WEAK LOW
PRES LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND NORTHERLY FLOW...TEMPS
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. THESE TEMPS ARE SOME 10-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS RELATIVE TO NORMAL AT
NIGHT. WIND CHILLS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...POSSIBLY
FROM ZERO TO FIVE BELOW IN SOME AREAS...AND WIND CHILLS DURING THE
DAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS.

TEMPS WARM UP A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
...HIGH IMPACT AVIATION WINTER EVENT TODAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING.

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. A WINTRY MIX MOVES IN ALONG THE COAST AFTER 11Z AND FARTHER
INLAND BY AFTERNOON. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN A
CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW IS LIKELY AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

IN GENERAL...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. A TRACE OF ICE AND
SLEET IS ALSO LIKELY.

IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE IMPROVING BY
SATURDAY EVENING.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF MIXING AND CHANGEOVER AND
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.


.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. W TO NW WIND 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. WEST WIND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SNOW POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST WATERS THROUGH SUN
AFT...WITH A MARGINAL GALE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS BETWEEN
MORICHES INLET AND MONTAUK POINT. NLY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME NW
TONIGHT AND THEN WEST ON SUN AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE
INTO FROM JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVE TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON SUN.

WITH ANOTHER STRONG LOW IMPACTING THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS STARTING ON
MONDAY. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY. CONDS SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CONDS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY. THIS WILL FALL AS A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN...AND RAIN.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF COULD COME
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT COULD BE CONFINED
TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS HAPPENING.
DRY CONDS RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS WILL APPROACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN LI/NYC SOUTH SHORE BAYS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON SAT...LOCALLY TOUCHING MINOR THRESHOLDS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ007>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005-
     006.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067-
     069>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ068.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MPS/DW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV/DW






000
FXUS61 KBTV 240845
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ARCTIC COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 320 AM EST SATURDAY...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE DAY. WE`LL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TODAY. FIRST LOW WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF OUR CWA ACROSS
CENTRAL QUEBEC. SECOND LOW WILL PASS FROM MID ATLANTIC REGION
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CLOSELY CENTERED AROUND THAT LOW...THEREFORE
LITTLE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA. HAVE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN
RUTLAND...WINDSOR AND ORANGE COUNTIES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT...JUST ONE TO TWO INCHES. MEANWHILE WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO OUR NORTH THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. TODAY IS THE LAST CHANCE AT ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO CROSSES
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOME DECENT VORTICITY
ADVECTION. MINS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES HANG AROUND TWENTY AS FRONT
TAKES THE LONGEST TO REACH THERE. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THEN WIND DOWN TOWARDS MORNING. ONLY EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE AREA FROM CANADA BRINGING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. MAY
SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE DAYTIME
HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
COLDER OF THE TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE...SOME -20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EST SATURDAY...QUIET...COLD AND GENERALLY DRY MID-
WINTER CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME AS BROAD LONGWAVE POLAR TROUGH REMAINS ATOP THE
NORTHEAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED BENEATH. DID OFFER AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHSN FAR EAST/SOUTH DURING TUESDAY AS
OFFSHORE SYSTEM PASSES NEAR THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK. THIS IS MAINLY
OUT OF RESPECT FOR MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHICH SHOW A
SOMEWHAT BROADER WESTERN EXTENT TO THE QPF FIELD OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THIS
MORNING`S UKMET...GFS AND GEM IS FOR A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST AND
THIS IS WHAT I`LL LEAN TOWARD...ESP SINCE BENCHMARK SYSTEMS ARE
USUALLY MINIMAL PLAYERS FOR US.

ONLY OTHER NOTABLE CHANCE OF PCPN WILL OCCUR LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVANCE
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN SHOWING BROAD CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
LOOKING AT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING REALLY ONLY
LIGHT SHSN HERE AND THERE WITH THE BEST SHOT OF ANY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS GIVEN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCT/BKN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINALS DURING
THE 06-18Z TIME FRAME. NO PCPN EXPECTED. BRIEF MVFR CIGS FROM
015-025 AGL POSSIBLE AT KMSS FROM 06-10Z...OTHERWISE CIGS
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 120 AGL. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY.
AFTER 16Z...WINDS TREND CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY AS STORM
SYSTEM PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A BRIEF SHSN POSSIBLE AT
KRUT. AFTER 22Z CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO BELOW 100 AGL AS TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MOST SHSN ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
OCCUR GENERALLY BEYOND THE TAF FORECAST CYCLE...BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING HAVE OFFERED VCSH AT KMSS/KSLK WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SCT/BKN MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KSLK DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR
MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 240845
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ARCTIC COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 320 AM EST SATURDAY...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE DAY. WE`LL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TODAY. FIRST LOW WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF OUR CWA ACROSS
CENTRAL QUEBEC. SECOND LOW WILL PASS FROM MID ATLANTIC REGION
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CLOSELY CENTERED AROUND THAT LOW...THEREFORE
LITTLE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA. HAVE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN
RUTLAND...WINDSOR AND ORANGE COUNTIES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT...JUST ONE TO TWO INCHES. MEANWHILE WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO OUR NORTH THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. TODAY IS THE LAST CHANCE AT ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO CROSSES
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOME DECENT VORTICITY
ADVECTION. MINS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES HANG AROUND TWENTY AS FRONT
TAKES THE LONGEST TO REACH THERE. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THEN WIND DOWN TOWARDS MORNING. ONLY EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE AREA FROM CANADA BRINGING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. MAY
SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE DAYTIME
HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
COLDER OF THE TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE...SOME -20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EST SATURDAY...QUIET...COLD AND GENERALLY DRY MID-
WINTER CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME AS BROAD LONGWAVE POLAR TROUGH REMAINS ATOP THE
NORTHEAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED BENEATH. DID OFFER AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHSN FAR EAST/SOUTH DURING TUESDAY AS
OFFSHORE SYSTEM PASSES NEAR THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK. THIS IS MAINLY
OUT OF RESPECT FOR MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHICH SHOW A
SOMEWHAT BROADER WESTERN EXTENT TO THE QPF FIELD OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THIS
MORNING`S UKMET...GFS AND GEM IS FOR A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST AND
THIS IS WHAT I`LL LEAN TOWARD...ESP SINCE BENCHMARK SYSTEMS ARE
USUALLY MINIMAL PLAYERS FOR US.

ONLY OTHER NOTABLE CHANCE OF PCPN WILL OCCUR LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVANCE
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN SHOWING BROAD CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
LOOKING AT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING REALLY ONLY
LIGHT SHSN HERE AND THERE WITH THE BEST SHOT OF ANY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS GIVEN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCT/BKN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINALS DURING
THE 06-18Z TIME FRAME. NO PCPN EXPECTED. BRIEF MVFR CIGS FROM
015-025 AGL POSSIBLE AT KMSS FROM 06-10Z...OTHERWISE CIGS
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 120 AGL. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY.
AFTER 16Z...WINDS TREND CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY AS STORM
SYSTEM PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A BRIEF SHSN POSSIBLE AT
KRUT. AFTER 22Z CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO BELOW 100 AGL AS TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MOST SHSN ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
OCCUR GENERALLY BEYOND THE TAF FORECAST CYCLE...BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING HAVE OFFERED VCSH AT KMSS/KSLK WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SCT/BKN MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KSLK DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR
MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 240845
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ARCTIC COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 320 AM EST SATURDAY...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE DAY. WE`LL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TODAY. FIRST LOW WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF OUR CWA ACROSS
CENTRAL QUEBEC. SECOND LOW WILL PASS FROM MID ATLANTIC REGION
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CLOSELY CENTERED AROUND THAT LOW...THEREFORE
LITTLE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA. HAVE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN
RUTLAND...WINDSOR AND ORANGE COUNTIES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT...JUST ONE TO TWO INCHES. MEANWHILE WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO OUR NORTH THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. TODAY IS THE LAST CHANCE AT ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO CROSSES
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOME DECENT VORTICITY
ADVECTION. MINS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES HANG AROUND TWENTY AS FRONT
TAKES THE LONGEST TO REACH THERE. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THEN WIND DOWN TOWARDS MORNING. ONLY EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE AREA FROM CANADA BRINGING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. MAY
SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE DAYTIME
HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
COLDER OF THE TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE...SOME -20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EST SATURDAY...QUIET...COLD AND GENERALLY DRY MID-
WINTER CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME AS BROAD LONGWAVE POLAR TROUGH REMAINS ATOP THE
NORTHEAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED BENEATH. DID OFFER AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHSN FAR EAST/SOUTH DURING TUESDAY AS
OFFSHORE SYSTEM PASSES NEAR THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK. THIS IS MAINLY
OUT OF RESPECT FOR MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHICH SHOW A
SOMEWHAT BROADER WESTERN EXTENT TO THE QPF FIELD OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THIS
MORNING`S UKMET...GFS AND GEM IS FOR A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST AND
THIS IS WHAT I`LL LEAN TOWARD...ESP SINCE BENCHMARK SYSTEMS ARE
USUALLY MINIMAL PLAYERS FOR US.

ONLY OTHER NOTABLE CHANCE OF PCPN WILL OCCUR LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVANCE
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN SHOWING BROAD CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
LOOKING AT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING REALLY ONLY
LIGHT SHSN HERE AND THERE WITH THE BEST SHOT OF ANY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS GIVEN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCT/BKN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINALS DURING
THE 06-18Z TIME FRAME. NO PCPN EXPECTED. BRIEF MVFR CIGS FROM
015-025 AGL POSSIBLE AT KMSS FROM 06-10Z...OTHERWISE CIGS
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 120 AGL. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY.
AFTER 16Z...WINDS TREND CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY AS STORM
SYSTEM PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A BRIEF SHSN POSSIBLE AT
KRUT. AFTER 22Z CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO BELOW 100 AGL AS TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MOST SHSN ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
OCCUR GENERALLY BEYOND THE TAF FORECAST CYCLE...BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING HAVE OFFERED VCSH AT KMSS/KSLK WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SCT/BKN MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KSLK DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR
MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 240845
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ARCTIC COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 320 AM EST SATURDAY...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE DAY. WE`LL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TODAY. FIRST LOW WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF OUR CWA ACROSS
CENTRAL QUEBEC. SECOND LOW WILL PASS FROM MID ATLANTIC REGION
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CLOSELY CENTERED AROUND THAT LOW...THEREFORE
LITTLE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA. HAVE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN
RUTLAND...WINDSOR AND ORANGE COUNTIES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT...JUST ONE TO TWO INCHES. MEANWHILE WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO OUR NORTH THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. TODAY IS THE LAST CHANCE AT ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO CROSSES
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOME DECENT VORTICITY
ADVECTION. MINS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES HANG AROUND TWENTY AS FRONT
TAKES THE LONGEST TO REACH THERE. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THEN WIND DOWN TOWARDS MORNING. ONLY EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE AREA FROM CANADA BRINGING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. MAY
SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE DAYTIME
HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
COLDER OF THE TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE...SOME -20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EST SATURDAY...QUIET...COLD AND GENERALLY DRY MID-
WINTER CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME AS BROAD LONGWAVE POLAR TROUGH REMAINS ATOP THE
NORTHEAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED BENEATH. DID OFFER AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHSN FAR EAST/SOUTH DURING TUESDAY AS
OFFSHORE SYSTEM PASSES NEAR THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK. THIS IS MAINLY
OUT OF RESPECT FOR MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHICH SHOW A
SOMEWHAT BROADER WESTERN EXTENT TO THE QPF FIELD OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THIS
MORNING`S UKMET...GFS AND GEM IS FOR A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST AND
THIS IS WHAT I`LL LEAN TOWARD...ESP SINCE BENCHMARK SYSTEMS ARE
USUALLY MINIMAL PLAYERS FOR US.

ONLY OTHER NOTABLE CHANCE OF PCPN WILL OCCUR LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVANCE
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN SHOWING BROAD CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
LOOKING AT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING REALLY ONLY
LIGHT SHSN HERE AND THERE WITH THE BEST SHOT OF ANY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS GIVEN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCT/BKN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINALS DURING
THE 06-18Z TIME FRAME. NO PCPN EXPECTED. BRIEF MVFR CIGS FROM
015-025 AGL POSSIBLE AT KMSS FROM 06-10Z...OTHERWISE CIGS
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 120 AGL. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY.
AFTER 16Z...WINDS TREND CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY AS STORM
SYSTEM PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A BRIEF SHSN POSSIBLE AT
KRUT. AFTER 22Z CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO BELOW 100 AGL AS TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MOST SHSN ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
OCCUR GENERALLY BEYOND THE TAF FORECAST CYCLE...BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING HAVE OFFERED VCSH AT KMSS/KSLK WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SCT/BKN MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KSLK DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR
MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 240838
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
338 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THEN FOLLOWING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH THIS MORNING...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
REMAIN WITHIN THE SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND A COASTAL LOW
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CAROLINA COASTLINE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE RESULTING ZONE OF COMPENSATING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
AIR ACROSS OUR AREA WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COASTAL STORM GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO A SWATH OF LOWER CLOUDS
ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL THEN COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PRESSES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AND AS
BOTH SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MODEST LEAD SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
OF THESE NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE LAKES.

DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL GRADUALLY
SAG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/
LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FURTHER AUGMENT THE EXISTING
FORCING REFERRED TO ABOVE...THEREBY LEADING TO THE BEST OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. EXPECT THESE
TO BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN NATURE...WITH THE GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION AGAIN EXPECTED NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPING AND LAKE-DRIVEN ENHANCEMENT OF
THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE FIELD. IN THESE LATTER AREAS HAVE GONE
WITH A ROUND OF HIGH LIKELY POPS...ALONG WITH SOME MODEST ACCUMS OF
AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS THERE MOST LIKELY TO
FOCUS ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE...ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE BULK OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME BETWEEN EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GENERALLY DIMINISHING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S TODAY...WITH TEMPS THEN SHARPLY DROPPING OFF AS COLD
ADVECTION SETS UP FOLLOWING THE FROPA TONIGHT. BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY
MORNING...EXPECT READINGS TO HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...AND TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES ARE GUARANTEED TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN THE MERCURY WILL BE SOME
10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN WHERE IT SHOULD BE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
IMPRESSIVE BECAUSE CLIMATOLOGICALLY WE ARE AT OUR COLDEST POINT OF
THE YEAR. THE ZENITH AND NADIR OF OUR ANNUAL TEMPERATURES OCCUR
ROUGHLY 5 WEEKS AFTER THE CORRESPONDING SOLSTICE. BY THE START OF
FEBRUARY...OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING.

THE COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO A DEEPENING
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL
DIRECT COLD AIR FROM NUNAVUT AND THE CANADIAN ARCTIC ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. LUCKILY FOR OUR REGION...THE COLD WILL
NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AS THE ONLY REAL STORM
SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. MORE ON THAT IN A MOMENT.

AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD...A BOMBOGENETIC LOW WILL BE PUSHING NORTH
ALONG THE COAST OF QUEBEC WHILE A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LATTER OF THESE FEATURES
WAS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR FORECAST AREA
TO BRING US A FEW INCHES OF SNOW INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...SFC BASED RIDGING BETWEEN THE STORM SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER OVER OUR REGION WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME
NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AN FLURRIES. INITIALLY...A COLD 310 FLOW
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES...BUT WITH A CAP UNDER 6K FT AND A SERIOUS LACK OF SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE...SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO UNDER AN INCH. AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH.
THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW SOUTH OF LK ONTARIO SHOULD KEEP A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WHILE HELPING TO GENERATE FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE NEARLY
STEADY IN THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS. THESE READINGS WERE LOWERED BY
SOME 5 DEG FROM CONTINUITY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST TO THE CAROLINAS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY. AGAIN...THIS WILL KEEP A SHIELD OF
STEADY SNOW TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. GIVEN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...MOST AREAS
WILL BE FREE FROM ANY LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH THE MERCURY PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND WELL BELOW ZERO EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. AGAIN...THESE READINGS HAVE BEEN LOWERED FROM CONTINUITY.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY AS GENERAL RIDGING
WILL BE FOUND OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH MORE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER...ALBEIT COLD WITH TEMPERATURES
NOT CLIMBING OUT OF THE TEENS (SINGLE DIGITS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY).

WHILE ANOTHER DEEP COASTAL STORM IS FORECAST CHURN UP THE NORTHEAST
COAST ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE
TO NOSE BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP VERY COLD
IN PLACE...WITH A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ENCOURAGING SOME PESKY LOW
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER THE BULK OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MODERATING OF THE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DO NOT
LET THIS FOOL YOU THOUGH...AS AT THE SAME TIME...OLD MAN WINTER WILL
BE SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ARCTIC INTRUSION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA.

SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC WHEN WE OPEN THIS PERIOD...BUT AS WE PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...A LARGE SLUG OF THIS FRIGID AIR WILL BREAK
LOOSE AND PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CANADA. IN FACT...
THERE IS A SUGGESTION FROM MANY OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS THAT THE NOTORIOUS POLAR VORTEX WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH
OVER ONTARIO. IF THIS WERE TO COME TO FRUITION...THEN THE START OF
FEBRUARY COULD CERTAINLY FEATURE SOME OF THE COLDEST WEATHER THAT WE
WOULD EXPERIENCE THIS WINTER. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS MORNING...CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO
IFR/LOW MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST AS A STRATUS DECK SPREADS EASTWARD
FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...WITH
THESE THEN DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
IFR/MVFR VSBYS...WHILE IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS SHOULD OTHERWISE CONTINUE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH LINGERING
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
SAGS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...THEN WILL
VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. WITH WINDS AND WAVES
LIKELY TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS ON LAKE ONTARIO FROM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THAT LAKE AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR







000
FXUS61 KBUF 240838
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
338 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THEN FOLLOWING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH THIS MORNING...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
REMAIN WITHIN THE SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND A COASTAL LOW
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CAROLINA COASTLINE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE RESULTING ZONE OF COMPENSATING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
AIR ACROSS OUR AREA WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COASTAL STORM GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO A SWATH OF LOWER CLOUDS
ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL THEN COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PRESSES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AND AS
BOTH SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MODEST LEAD SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
OF THESE NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE LAKES.

DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL GRADUALLY
SAG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/
LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FURTHER AUGMENT THE EXISTING
FORCING REFERRED TO ABOVE...THEREBY LEADING TO THE BEST OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. EXPECT THESE
TO BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN NATURE...WITH THE GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION AGAIN EXPECTED NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPING AND LAKE-DRIVEN ENHANCEMENT OF
THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE FIELD. IN THESE LATTER AREAS HAVE GONE
WITH A ROUND OF HIGH LIKELY POPS...ALONG WITH SOME MODEST ACCUMS OF
AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS THERE MOST LIKELY TO
FOCUS ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE...ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE BULK OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME BETWEEN EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GENERALLY DIMINISHING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S TODAY...WITH TEMPS THEN SHARPLY DROPPING OFF AS COLD
ADVECTION SETS UP FOLLOWING THE FROPA TONIGHT. BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY
MORNING...EXPECT READINGS TO HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...AND TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES ARE GUARANTEED TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN THE MERCURY WILL BE SOME
10 TO 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN WHERE IT SHOULD BE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
IMPRESSIVE BECAUSE CLIMATOLOGICALLY WE ARE AT OUR COLDEST POINT OF
THE YEAR. THE ZENITH AND NADIR OF OUR ANNUAL TEMPERATURES OCCUR
ROUGHLY 5 WEEKS AFTER THE CORRESPONDING SOLSTICE. BY THE START OF
FEBRUARY...OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING.

THE COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO A DEEPENING
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL
DIRECT COLD AIR FROM NUNAVUT AND THE CANADIAN ARCTIC ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. LUCKILY FOR OUR REGION...THE COLD WILL
NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS AS THE ONLY REAL STORM
SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. MORE ON THAT IN A MOMENT.

AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD...A BOMBOGENETIC LOW WILL BE PUSHING NORTH
ALONG THE COAST OF QUEBEC WHILE A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LATTER OF THESE FEATURES
WAS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR FORECAST AREA
TO BRING US A FEW INCHES OF SNOW INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...SFC BASED RIDGING BETWEEN THE STORM SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER OVER OUR REGION WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME
NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AN FLURRIES. INITIALLY...A COLD 310 FLOW
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES...BUT WITH A CAP UNDER 6K FT AND A SERIOUS LACK OF SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE...SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO UNDER AN INCH. AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH.
THE RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW SOUTH OF LK ONTARIO SHOULD KEEP A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS IN PLACE WHILE HELPING TO GENERATE FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE NEARLY
STEADY IN THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS. THESE READINGS WERE LOWERED BY
SOME 5 DEG FROM CONTINUITY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST TO THE CAROLINAS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY. AGAIN...THIS WILL KEEP A SHIELD OF
STEADY SNOW TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. GIVEN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...MOST AREAS
WILL BE FREE FROM ANY LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH THE MERCURY PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND WELL BELOW ZERO EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. AGAIN...THESE READINGS HAVE BEEN LOWERED FROM CONTINUITY.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY AS GENERAL RIDGING
WILL BE FOUND OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH MORE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER...ALBEIT COLD WITH TEMPERATURES
NOT CLIMBING OUT OF THE TEENS (SINGLE DIGITS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY).

WHILE ANOTHER DEEP COASTAL STORM IS FORECAST CHURN UP THE NORTHEAST
COAST ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE
TO NOSE BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP VERY COLD
IN PLACE...WITH A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ENCOURAGING SOME PESKY LOW
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER THE BULK OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MODERATING OF THE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DO NOT
LET THIS FOOL YOU THOUGH...AS AT THE SAME TIME...OLD MAN WINTER WILL
BE SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ARCTIC INTRUSION FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA.

SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC WHEN WE OPEN THIS PERIOD...BUT AS WE PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...A LARGE SLUG OF THIS FRIGID AIR WILL BREAK
LOOSE AND PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CANADA. IN FACT...
THERE IS A SUGGESTION FROM MANY OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS THAT THE NOTORIOUS POLAR VORTEX WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH
OVER ONTARIO. IF THIS WERE TO COME TO FRUITION...THEN THE START OF
FEBRUARY COULD CERTAINLY FEATURE SOME OF THE COLDEST WEATHER THAT WE
WOULD EXPERIENCE THIS WINTER. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS MORNING...CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO
IFR/LOW MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST AS A STRATUS DECK SPREADS EASTWARD
FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...WITH
THESE THEN DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
IFR/MVFR VSBYS...WHILE IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS SHOULD OTHERWISE CONTINUE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH LINGERING
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
SAGS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...THEN WILL
VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. WITH WINDS AND WAVES
LIKELY TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS ON LAKE ONTARIO FROM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THAT LAKE AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBGM 240822
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
322 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. THE STORM THAT
CAUSED THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND IT, COOLER
WEATHER AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
300 AM UPDATE...
A VERY SHARP LINE ON RADAR CONTINUES WITH NO SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY, WITH MODERATE SNOW JUST SOUTH OF THE NY/PA
LINE. MAIN UPDATES INCLUDE EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
INTO SULLIVAN COUNTY, NY, AND INCREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTHERN PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY. WE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A REPORT
OF 3" FROM MONROE COUNTY, PA (THANKS TO THE PHILLY OFFICE). WITH
THAT REPORT COMBINED WITH THE MESOSCALE BANDING SHOWING UP ON
RADAR, I INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE 4" TO 8" RANGE FOR
MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA. STILL EXPECT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY OR ROUGHLY FROM
NEAR WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON, SOUTH AND EAST. THIS MATCHES UP WELL
WITH RADAR TRENDS BEING MORE STRATIFORM DUE SOUTH OF THESE AREAS,
WITH MORE CONVECTIVE/SPLOTCHY RETURNS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOWFALL FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY AS WE WILL
LIKELY GO FROM A FEW INCHES DO JUST A DUSTING OVER THE SPAN OF A
FEW MILES. SNOW DIMINISHES RAPIDLY BY LATE MORNING, AS THE STORM
CAUSING THE SNOW LIFTS UP THE COAST.

CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SCT. SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT ON A COOL,
NORTHWEST FLOW. A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL NY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR AND A LOWERING INVERSION ENDS THE THREAT. MAIN CHANGE TO
THIS PERIOD WAS TO PUSH PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
FARTHER SOUTH BASED ON MODEL TRENDS. SNOW CHANCES ARE HELD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 06Z MONDAY, AND MAINLY JUST ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND
PART OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THIS IS A GOOD 50 MILES OR SO
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WE HAD PREVIOUSLY. TWO BIG DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS NEXT STORM ARE 1) STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, WHICH
WILL BLOCK THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF IT. 2) THE STORM IS A CLIPPER
AND COMING FROM THE WEST, SO IT WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO TAP A LOT OF MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV TRENDED SOUTH FOR UPCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM SUN
NGT/MONDAY. STRONG 1025MB CANADIAN HIGH WL BUILD SOUTH AND SHUNT
SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. 12Z GFS, CMC AND EC TRACK IT CLOSE TO THE
PIEDMONT OF NC WITH 12Z NAM NOW GOING THRU THE HEART OF VA. H5 WV IS
STILL OFFSHORE AND WILL BE COMING INTO NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA
TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW HV LOWERED POPS FOR SUN NGT/MON WITH
SYSTEM NOW LOOKING TO BE A NEAR-MISS FOR CWA.

SFC HIGH WL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN CLDR AIR WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS
DROPPING DOWN TO NR 520DM. H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP BLO -10C WL
YIELD LOWS MON MRNG IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE TEENS ON MONDAY AS NRLY FLOW CONTS TO SUPPLY CLD AIR.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WL BE PRESENT OVR THE AREA STARTING MON
NGT AND HV DROPPED POPS TO SLGT CHC JUST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
NERLY FLOW WL BE PRESENT DRG THIS TIME WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA STARTING THUR MRNG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST...HAS CAUSED SHIELD OF SNOW TO
OVERSPREAD PA INCLUDING KAVP PRIOR TO 06Z. WE ANTICIPATE THAT THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND KBGM. KELM
AND TO A LESSER DEGREE KITH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...BUT
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME
AS PER LATEST MODELS/SOUNDINGS WHICH LEND INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS NOT OCCURRING...THUS NOT INCLUDED WITHIN TAFS. KSYR-
KRME MUCH TOO DRY FOR RESTRICTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND AS
SYSTEM EXITS...MOST OTHER TERMINALS ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME
LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WNW WINDS ROUGHLY 8-12 KTS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH PASSING WAVE ALOFT. AIR WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO INITIATE LAKE CLOUDS BUT ONLY MINOR AT BEST LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING FUEL ALT REQ MVFR CIGS TO FORM FOR
AT LEAST THE NY TERMINALS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES /OF GENERALLY MVFR VIS/.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT -SHSN MAINLY MORNING AT NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT-MON...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE -SN AT KAVP AS CLIPPER PASSES.

MON NGT-TUE...MINOR RESTRICTIONS FROM LAKE CLOUDS AND/OR -SN...MAINLY
NY TERMINALS.

TUE NGT-WED...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 240822
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
322 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. THE STORM THAT
CAUSED THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND IT, COOLER
WEATHER AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
300 AM UPDATE...
A VERY SHARP LINE ON RADAR CONTINUES WITH NO SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY, WITH MODERATE SNOW JUST SOUTH OF THE NY/PA
LINE. MAIN UPDATES INCLUDE EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
INTO SULLIVAN COUNTY, NY, AND INCREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTHERN PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY. WE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A REPORT
OF 3" FROM MONROE COUNTY, PA (THANKS TO THE PHILLY OFFICE). WITH
THAT REPORT COMBINED WITH THE MESOSCALE BANDING SHOWING UP ON
RADAR, I INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE 4" TO 8" RANGE FOR
MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA. STILL EXPECT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY OR ROUGHLY FROM
NEAR WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON, SOUTH AND EAST. THIS MATCHES UP WELL
WITH RADAR TRENDS BEING MORE STRATIFORM DUE SOUTH OF THESE AREAS,
WITH MORE CONVECTIVE/SPLOTCHY RETURNS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOWFALL FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY AS WE WILL
LIKELY GO FROM A FEW INCHES DO JUST A DUSTING OVER THE SPAN OF A
FEW MILES. SNOW DIMINISHES RAPIDLY BY LATE MORNING, AS THE STORM
CAUSING THE SNOW LIFTS UP THE COAST.

CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SCT. SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT ON A COOL,
NORTHWEST FLOW. A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL NY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR AND A LOWERING INVERSION ENDS THE THREAT. MAIN CHANGE TO
THIS PERIOD WAS TO PUSH PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
FARTHER SOUTH BASED ON MODEL TRENDS. SNOW CHANCES ARE HELD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 06Z MONDAY, AND MAINLY JUST ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND
PART OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THIS IS A GOOD 50 MILES OR SO
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WE HAD PREVIOUSLY. TWO BIG DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS NEXT STORM ARE 1) STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, WHICH
WILL BLOCK THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF IT. 2) THE STORM IS A CLIPPER
AND COMING FROM THE WEST, SO IT WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO TAP A LOT OF MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV TRENDED SOUTH FOR UPCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM SUN
NGT/MONDAY. STRONG 1025MB CANADIAN HIGH WL BUILD SOUTH AND SHUNT
SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. 12Z GFS, CMC AND EC TRACK IT CLOSE TO THE
PIEDMONT OF NC WITH 12Z NAM NOW GOING THRU THE HEART OF VA. H5 WV IS
STILL OFFSHORE AND WILL BE COMING INTO NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA
TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW HV LOWERED POPS FOR SUN NGT/MON WITH
SYSTEM NOW LOOKING TO BE A NEAR-MISS FOR CWA.

SFC HIGH WL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN CLDR AIR WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS
DROPPING DOWN TO NR 520DM. H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP BLO -10C WL
YIELD LOWS MON MRNG IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE TEENS ON MONDAY AS NRLY FLOW CONTS TO SUPPLY CLD AIR.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WL BE PRESENT OVR THE AREA STARTING MON
NGT AND HV DROPPED POPS TO SLGT CHC JUST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
NERLY FLOW WL BE PRESENT DRG THIS TIME WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA STARTING THUR MRNG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST...HAS CAUSED SHIELD OF SNOW TO
OVERSPREAD PA INCLUDING KAVP PRIOR TO 06Z. WE ANTICIPATE THAT THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND KBGM. KELM
AND TO A LESSER DEGREE KITH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...BUT
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME
AS PER LATEST MODELS/SOUNDINGS WHICH LEND INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS NOT OCCURRING...THUS NOT INCLUDED WITHIN TAFS. KSYR-
KRME MUCH TOO DRY FOR RESTRICTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND AS
SYSTEM EXITS...MOST OTHER TERMINALS ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME
LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WNW WINDS ROUGHLY 8-12 KTS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH PASSING WAVE ALOFT. AIR WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO INITIATE LAKE CLOUDS BUT ONLY MINOR AT BEST LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING FUEL ALT REQ MVFR CIGS TO FORM FOR
AT LEAST THE NY TERMINALS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES /OF GENERALLY MVFR VIS/.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT -SHSN MAINLY MORNING AT NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT-MON...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE -SN AT KAVP AS CLIPPER PASSES.

MON NGT-TUE...MINOR RESTRICTIONS FROM LAKE CLOUDS AND/OR -SN...MAINLY
NY TERMINALS.

TUE NGT-WED...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 240822
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
322 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. THE STORM THAT
CAUSED THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND IT, COOLER
WEATHER AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
300 AM UPDATE...
A VERY SHARP LINE ON RADAR CONTINUES WITH NO SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY, WITH MODERATE SNOW JUST SOUTH OF THE NY/PA
LINE. MAIN UPDATES INCLUDE EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
INTO SULLIVAN COUNTY, NY, AND INCREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTHERN PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY. WE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A REPORT
OF 3" FROM MONROE COUNTY, PA (THANKS TO THE PHILLY OFFICE). WITH
THAT REPORT COMBINED WITH THE MESOSCALE BANDING SHOWING UP ON
RADAR, I INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE 4" TO 8" RANGE FOR
MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA. STILL EXPECT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY OR ROUGHLY FROM
NEAR WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON, SOUTH AND EAST. THIS MATCHES UP WELL
WITH RADAR TRENDS BEING MORE STRATIFORM DUE SOUTH OF THESE AREAS,
WITH MORE CONVECTIVE/SPLOTCHY RETURNS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOWFALL FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY AS WE WILL
LIKELY GO FROM A FEW INCHES DO JUST A DUSTING OVER THE SPAN OF A
FEW MILES. SNOW DIMINISHES RAPIDLY BY LATE MORNING, AS THE STORM
CAUSING THE SNOW LIFTS UP THE COAST.

CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SCT. SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT ON A COOL,
NORTHWEST FLOW. A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL NY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR AND A LOWERING INVERSION ENDS THE THREAT. MAIN CHANGE TO
THIS PERIOD WAS TO PUSH PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
FARTHER SOUTH BASED ON MODEL TRENDS. SNOW CHANCES ARE HELD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 06Z MONDAY, AND MAINLY JUST ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND
PART OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THIS IS A GOOD 50 MILES OR SO
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WE HAD PREVIOUSLY. TWO BIG DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS NEXT STORM ARE 1) STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, WHICH
WILL BLOCK THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF IT. 2) THE STORM IS A CLIPPER
AND COMING FROM THE WEST, SO IT WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO TAP A LOT OF MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV TRENDED SOUTH FOR UPCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM SUN
NGT/MONDAY. STRONG 1025MB CANADIAN HIGH WL BUILD SOUTH AND SHUNT
SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. 12Z GFS, CMC AND EC TRACK IT CLOSE TO THE
PIEDMONT OF NC WITH 12Z NAM NOW GOING THRU THE HEART OF VA. H5 WV IS
STILL OFFSHORE AND WILL BE COMING INTO NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA
TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW HV LOWERED POPS FOR SUN NGT/MON WITH
SYSTEM NOW LOOKING TO BE A NEAR-MISS FOR CWA.

SFC HIGH WL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN CLDR AIR WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS
DROPPING DOWN TO NR 520DM. H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP BLO -10C WL
YIELD LOWS MON MRNG IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE TEENS ON MONDAY AS NRLY FLOW CONTS TO SUPPLY CLD AIR.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WL BE PRESENT OVR THE AREA STARTING MON
NGT AND HV DROPPED POPS TO SLGT CHC JUST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
NERLY FLOW WL BE PRESENT DRG THIS TIME WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA STARTING THUR MRNG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST...HAS CAUSED SHIELD OF SNOW TO
OVERSPREAD PA INCLUDING KAVP PRIOR TO 06Z. WE ANTICIPATE THAT THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND KBGM. KELM
AND TO A LESSER DEGREE KITH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...BUT
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME
AS PER LATEST MODELS/SOUNDINGS WHICH LEND INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS NOT OCCURRING...THUS NOT INCLUDED WITHIN TAFS. KSYR-
KRME MUCH TOO DRY FOR RESTRICTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND AS
SYSTEM EXITS...MOST OTHER TERMINALS ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME
LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WNW WINDS ROUGHLY 8-12 KTS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH PASSING WAVE ALOFT. AIR WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO INITIATE LAKE CLOUDS BUT ONLY MINOR AT BEST LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING FUEL ALT REQ MVFR CIGS TO FORM FOR
AT LEAST THE NY TERMINALS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES /OF GENERALLY MVFR VIS/.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT -SHSN MAINLY MORNING AT NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT-MON...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE -SN AT KAVP AS CLIPPER PASSES.

MON NGT-TUE...MINOR RESTRICTIONS FROM LAKE CLOUDS AND/OR -SN...MAINLY
NY TERMINALS.

TUE NGT-WED...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 240822
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
322 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. THE STORM THAT
CAUSED THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND IT, COOLER
WEATHER AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
300 AM UPDATE...
A VERY SHARP LINE ON RADAR CONTINUES WITH NO SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY, WITH MODERATE SNOW JUST SOUTH OF THE NY/PA
LINE. MAIN UPDATES INCLUDE EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
INTO SULLIVAN COUNTY, NY, AND INCREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTHERN PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY. WE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A REPORT
OF 3" FROM MONROE COUNTY, PA (THANKS TO THE PHILLY OFFICE). WITH
THAT REPORT COMBINED WITH THE MESOSCALE BANDING SHOWING UP ON
RADAR, I INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE 4" TO 8" RANGE FOR
MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA. STILL EXPECT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY OR ROUGHLY FROM
NEAR WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON, SOUTH AND EAST. THIS MATCHES UP WELL
WITH RADAR TRENDS BEING MORE STRATIFORM DUE SOUTH OF THESE AREAS,
WITH MORE CONVECTIVE/SPLOTCHY RETURNS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOWFALL FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY AS WE WILL
LIKELY GO FROM A FEW INCHES DO JUST A DUSTING OVER THE SPAN OF A
FEW MILES. SNOW DIMINISHES RAPIDLY BY LATE MORNING, AS THE STORM
CAUSING THE SNOW LIFTS UP THE COAST.

CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SCT. SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT ON A COOL,
NORTHWEST FLOW. A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL NY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR AND A LOWERING INVERSION ENDS THE THREAT. MAIN CHANGE TO
THIS PERIOD WAS TO PUSH PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
FARTHER SOUTH BASED ON MODEL TRENDS. SNOW CHANCES ARE HELD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 06Z MONDAY, AND MAINLY JUST ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND
PART OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THIS IS A GOOD 50 MILES OR SO
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WE HAD PREVIOUSLY. TWO BIG DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS NEXT STORM ARE 1) STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, WHICH
WILL BLOCK THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF IT. 2) THE STORM IS A CLIPPER
AND COMING FROM THE WEST, SO IT WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO TAP A LOT OF MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV TRENDED SOUTH FOR UPCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM SUN
NGT/MONDAY. STRONG 1025MB CANADIAN HIGH WL BUILD SOUTH AND SHUNT
SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. 12Z GFS, CMC AND EC TRACK IT CLOSE TO THE
PIEDMONT OF NC WITH 12Z NAM NOW GOING THRU THE HEART OF VA. H5 WV IS
STILL OFFSHORE AND WILL BE COMING INTO NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA
TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW HV LOWERED POPS FOR SUN NGT/MON WITH
SYSTEM NOW LOOKING TO BE A NEAR-MISS FOR CWA.

SFC HIGH WL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN CLDR AIR WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS
DROPPING DOWN TO NR 520DM. H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP BLO -10C WL
YIELD LOWS MON MRNG IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE TEENS ON MONDAY AS NRLY FLOW CONTS TO SUPPLY CLD AIR.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WL BE PRESENT OVR THE AREA STARTING MON
NGT AND HV DROPPED POPS TO SLGT CHC JUST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
NERLY FLOW WL BE PRESENT DRG THIS TIME WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA STARTING THUR MRNG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST...HAS CAUSED SHIELD OF SNOW TO
OVERSPREAD PA INCLUDING KAVP PRIOR TO 06Z. WE ANTICIPATE THAT THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND KBGM. KELM
AND TO A LESSER DEGREE KITH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...BUT
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME
AS PER LATEST MODELS/SOUNDINGS WHICH LEND INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS NOT OCCURRING...THUS NOT INCLUDED WITHIN TAFS. KSYR-
KRME MUCH TOO DRY FOR RESTRICTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND AS
SYSTEM EXITS...MOST OTHER TERMINALS ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME
LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WNW WINDS ROUGHLY 8-12 KTS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH PASSING WAVE ALOFT. AIR WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO INITIATE LAKE CLOUDS BUT ONLY MINOR AT BEST LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING FUEL ALT REQ MVFR CIGS TO FORM FOR
AT LEAST THE NY TERMINALS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES /OF GENERALLY MVFR VIS/.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT -SHSN MAINLY MORNING AT NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT-MON...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE -SN AT KAVP AS CLIPPER PASSES.

MON NGT-TUE...MINOR RESTRICTIONS FROM LAKE CLOUDS AND/OR -SN...MAINLY
NY TERMINALS.

TUE NGT-WED...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBTV 240745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
245 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A COASTAL LOW ON SATURDAY,
RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT FROM
THE COASTAL LOW AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK
INTO EASTERN VERMONT LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION,
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1217 AM EST SATURDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT CHANGES MADE FOR
1230 UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

GOING FORECAST STILL LOOKING GOOD. WITH LATEST UPDATE...MADE JUST
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS FOR TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. SKIES MAINLY CLEAR OVER SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...WITH MORE CLOUDS
OVER THE NORTH. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS SCENARIO THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD DECREASE AND
LIFT NORTH...WHILE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN AREAS. ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...BUT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT
WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT 20 TO 25 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST
LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION... WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH BRINGING CLOUDS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM TIME TO TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S WITH WARMEST AREAS BEING IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, WHERE CLOUDS WILL
BE SLOWEST TO ERODE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO APPROACHING CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE. MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH
A COASTAL LOW. BUT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM EITHER SYSTEM SHOULD
HOLD OFF TIL SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...A TALE OF TWO LOW PRESSURES - AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY GETS SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THEM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH, REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA ON
SATURDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN LITTLE IMPACT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH AND WEST, WHICH WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW
TO INFILTRATE RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES SATURDAY
MORNING...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AS FOR THE
NORTHERN LOW, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN NY MAINLY IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL BE SHIFTING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY AND OVERNIGHT, HELPING TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. ALSO IN THIS NW FLOW, LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND PRONOUNCED
COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
RESULTING IN NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. WITH 925 MB AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO ABOUT -20C, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
EARLY IN THE DAY AND ONLY BE IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S
SOUTH. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE FILTERING IN ON THE NW FLOW, WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NO PRECIPITATION. AS TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS
COMES TO AN END, EXPECT STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR
LESS, THOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SETTLES IN. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO, RANGING FROM
-12F TO -2F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EST SATURDAY...QUIET...COLD AND GENERALLY DRY MID-
WINTER CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME AS BROAD LONGWAVE POLAR TROUGH REMAINS ATOP THE
NORTHEAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED BENEATH. DID OFFER AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHSN FAR EAST/SOUTH DURING TUESDAY AS
OFFSHORE SYSTEM PASSES NEAR THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK. THIS IS MAINLY
OUT OF RESPECT FOR MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHICH SHOW A
SOMEWHAT BROADER WESTERN EXTENT TO THE QPF FIELD OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THIS
MORNING`S UKMET...GFS AND GEM IS FOR A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST AND
THIS IS WHAT I`LL LEAN TOWARD...ESP SINCE BENCHMARK SYSTEMS ARE
USUALLY MINIMAL PLAYERS FOR US.

ONLY OTHER NOTABLE CHANCE OF PCPN WILL OCCUR LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVANCE INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN SHOWING BROAD CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
LOOKING AT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING REALLY ONLY
LIGHT SHSN HERE AND THERE WITH THE BEST SHOT OF ANY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS GIVEN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCT/BKN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINALS DURING
THE 06-18Z TIME FRAME. NO PCPN EXPECTED. BRIEF MVFR CIGS FROM
015-025 AGL POSSIBLE AT KMSS FROM 06-10Z...OTHERWISE CIGS
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 120 AGL. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY.
AFTER 16Z...WINDS TREND CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY AS STORM
SYSTEM PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A BRIEF SHSN POSSIBLE AT
KRUT. AFTER 22Z CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO BELOW 100 AGL AS TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MOST SHSN ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
OCCUR GENERALLY BEYOND THE TAF FORECAST CYCLE...BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING HAVE OFFERED VCSH AT KMSS/KSLK WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SCT/BKN MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KSLK DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR
MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 240745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
245 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A COASTAL LOW ON SATURDAY,
RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT FROM
THE COASTAL LOW AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK
INTO EASTERN VERMONT LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION,
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1217 AM EST SATURDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT CHANGES MADE FOR
1230 UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

GOING FORECAST STILL LOOKING GOOD. WITH LATEST UPDATE...MADE JUST
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS FOR TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. SKIES MAINLY CLEAR OVER SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...WITH MORE CLOUDS
OVER THE NORTH. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS SCENARIO THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD DECREASE AND
LIFT NORTH...WHILE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN AREAS. ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...BUT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT
WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT 20 TO 25 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST
LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION... WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH BRINGING CLOUDS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM TIME TO TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S WITH WARMEST AREAS BEING IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, WHERE CLOUDS WILL
BE SLOWEST TO ERODE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO APPROACHING CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE. MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH
A COASTAL LOW. BUT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM EITHER SYSTEM SHOULD
HOLD OFF TIL SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...A TALE OF TWO LOW PRESSURES - AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY GETS SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THEM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH, REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA ON
SATURDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN LITTLE IMPACT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH AND WEST, WHICH WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW
TO INFILTRATE RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES SATURDAY
MORNING...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AS FOR THE
NORTHERN LOW, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN NY MAINLY IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL BE SHIFTING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY AND OVERNIGHT, HELPING TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. ALSO IN THIS NW FLOW, LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND PRONOUNCED
COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
RESULTING IN NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. WITH 925 MB AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO ABOUT -20C, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
EARLY IN THE DAY AND ONLY BE IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S
SOUTH. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE FILTERING IN ON THE NW FLOW, WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NO PRECIPITATION. AS TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS
COMES TO AN END, EXPECT STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR
LESS, THOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SETTLES IN. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO, RANGING FROM
-12F TO -2F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EST SATURDAY...QUIET...COLD AND GENERALLY DRY MID-
WINTER CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME AS BROAD LONGWAVE POLAR TROUGH REMAINS ATOP THE
NORTHEAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED BENEATH. DID OFFER AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHSN FAR EAST/SOUTH DURING TUESDAY AS
OFFSHORE SYSTEM PASSES NEAR THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK. THIS IS MAINLY
OUT OF RESPECT FOR MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHICH SHOW A
SOMEWHAT BROADER WESTERN EXTENT TO THE QPF FIELD OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THIS
MORNING`S UKMET...GFS AND GEM IS FOR A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST AND
THIS IS WHAT I`LL LEAN TOWARD...ESP SINCE BENCHMARK SYSTEMS ARE
USUALLY MINIMAL PLAYERS FOR US.

ONLY OTHER NOTABLE CHANCE OF PCPN WILL OCCUR LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVANCE INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN SHOWING BROAD CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
LOOKING AT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING REALLY ONLY
LIGHT SHSN HERE AND THERE WITH THE BEST SHOT OF ANY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS GIVEN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCT/BKN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINALS DURING
THE 06-18Z TIME FRAME. NO PCPN EXPECTED. BRIEF MVFR CIGS FROM
015-025 AGL POSSIBLE AT KMSS FROM 06-10Z...OTHERWISE CIGS
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 120 AGL. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY.
AFTER 16Z...WINDS TREND CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY AS STORM
SYSTEM PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A BRIEF SHSN POSSIBLE AT
KRUT. AFTER 22Z CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO BELOW 100 AGL AS TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MOST SHSN ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
OCCUR GENERALLY BEYOND THE TAF FORECAST CYCLE...BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING HAVE OFFERED VCSH AT KMSS/KSLK WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SCT/BKN MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KSLK DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR
MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 240745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
245 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A COASTAL LOW ON SATURDAY,
RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT FROM
THE COASTAL LOW AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK
INTO EASTERN VERMONT LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION,
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1217 AM EST SATURDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT CHANGES MADE FOR
1230 UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

GOING FORECAST STILL LOOKING GOOD. WITH LATEST UPDATE...MADE JUST
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS FOR TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. SKIES MAINLY CLEAR OVER SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...WITH MORE CLOUDS
OVER THE NORTH. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS SCENARIO THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD DECREASE AND
LIFT NORTH...WHILE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN AREAS. ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...BUT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT
WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT 20 TO 25 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST
LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION... WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH BRINGING CLOUDS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM TIME TO TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S WITH WARMEST AREAS BEING IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, WHERE CLOUDS WILL
BE SLOWEST TO ERODE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO APPROACHING CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE. MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH
A COASTAL LOW. BUT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM EITHER SYSTEM SHOULD
HOLD OFF TIL SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...A TALE OF TWO LOW PRESSURES - AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY GETS SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THEM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH, REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA ON
SATURDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN LITTLE IMPACT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH AND WEST, WHICH WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW
TO INFILTRATE RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES SATURDAY
MORNING...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AS FOR THE
NORTHERN LOW, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN NY MAINLY IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL BE SHIFTING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY AND OVERNIGHT, HELPING TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. ALSO IN THIS NW FLOW, LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND PRONOUNCED
COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
RESULTING IN NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. WITH 925 MB AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO ABOUT -20C, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
EARLY IN THE DAY AND ONLY BE IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S
SOUTH. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE FILTERING IN ON THE NW FLOW, WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NO PRECIPITATION. AS TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS
COMES TO AN END, EXPECT STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR
LESS, THOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SETTLES IN. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO, RANGING FROM
-12F TO -2F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EST SATURDAY...QUIET...COLD AND GENERALLY DRY MID-
WINTER CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME AS BROAD LONGWAVE POLAR TROUGH REMAINS ATOP THE
NORTHEAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED BENEATH. DID OFFER AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHSN FAR EAST/SOUTH DURING TUESDAY AS
OFFSHORE SYSTEM PASSES NEAR THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK. THIS IS MAINLY
OUT OF RESPECT FOR MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHICH SHOW A
SOMEWHAT BROADER WESTERN EXTENT TO THE QPF FIELD OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THIS
MORNING`S UKMET...GFS AND GEM IS FOR A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST AND
THIS IS WHAT I`LL LEAN TOWARD...ESP SINCE BENCHMARK SYSTEMS ARE
USUALLY MINIMAL PLAYERS FOR US.

ONLY OTHER NOTABLE CHANCE OF PCPN WILL OCCUR LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVANCE INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN SHOWING BROAD CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
LOOKING AT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING REALLY ONLY
LIGHT SHSN HERE AND THERE WITH THE BEST SHOT OF ANY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS GIVEN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCT/BKN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINALS DURING
THE 06-18Z TIME FRAME. NO PCPN EXPECTED. BRIEF MVFR CIGS FROM
015-025 AGL POSSIBLE AT KMSS FROM 06-10Z...OTHERWISE CIGS
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 120 AGL. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY.
AFTER 16Z...WINDS TREND CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY AS STORM
SYSTEM PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A BRIEF SHSN POSSIBLE AT
KRUT. AFTER 22Z CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO BELOW 100 AGL AS TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MOST SHSN ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
OCCUR GENERALLY BEYOND THE TAF FORECAST CYCLE...BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING HAVE OFFERED VCSH AT KMSS/KSLK WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SCT/BKN MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KSLK DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR
MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 240745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
245 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A COASTAL LOW ON SATURDAY,
RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT FROM
THE COASTAL LOW AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK
INTO EASTERN VERMONT LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION,
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1217 AM EST SATURDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT CHANGES MADE FOR
1230 UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

GOING FORECAST STILL LOOKING GOOD. WITH LATEST UPDATE...MADE JUST
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS FOR TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. SKIES MAINLY CLEAR OVER SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...WITH MORE CLOUDS
OVER THE NORTH. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS SCENARIO THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD DECREASE AND
LIFT NORTH...WHILE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN AREAS. ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...BUT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT
WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT 20 TO 25 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST
LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION... WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH BRINGING CLOUDS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM TIME TO TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S WITH WARMEST AREAS BEING IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, WHERE CLOUDS WILL
BE SLOWEST TO ERODE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO APPROACHING CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE. MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH
A COASTAL LOW. BUT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM EITHER SYSTEM SHOULD
HOLD OFF TIL SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...A TALE OF TWO LOW PRESSURES - AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY GETS SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THEM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH, REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA ON
SATURDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN LITTLE IMPACT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH AND WEST, WHICH WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW
TO INFILTRATE RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES SATURDAY
MORNING...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AS FOR THE
NORTHERN LOW, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN NY MAINLY IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL BE SHIFTING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY AND OVERNIGHT, HELPING TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. ALSO IN THIS NW FLOW, LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND PRONOUNCED
COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
RESULTING IN NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. WITH 925 MB AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO ABOUT -20C, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
EARLY IN THE DAY AND ONLY BE IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S
SOUTH. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE FILTERING IN ON THE NW FLOW, WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NO PRECIPITATION. AS TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS
COMES TO AN END, EXPECT STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR
LESS, THOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SETTLES IN. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO, RANGING FROM
-12F TO -2F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EST SATURDAY...QUIET...COLD AND GENERALLY DRY MID-
WINTER CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME AS BROAD LONGWAVE POLAR TROUGH REMAINS ATOP THE
NORTHEAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED BENEATH. DID OFFER AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHSN FAR EAST/SOUTH DURING TUESDAY AS
OFFSHORE SYSTEM PASSES NEAR THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK. THIS IS MAINLY
OUT OF RESPECT FOR MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHICH SHOW A
SOMEWHAT BROADER WESTERN EXTENT TO THE QPF FIELD OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THIS
MORNING`S UKMET...GFS AND GEM IS FOR A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST AND
THIS IS WHAT I`LL LEAN TOWARD...ESP SINCE BENCHMARK SYSTEMS ARE
USUALLY MINIMAL PLAYERS FOR US.

ONLY OTHER NOTABLE CHANCE OF PCPN WILL OCCUR LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVANCE INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN SHOWING BROAD CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
LOOKING AT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING REALLY ONLY
LIGHT SHSN HERE AND THERE WITH THE BEST SHOT OF ANY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS GIVEN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCT/BKN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINALS DURING
THE 06-18Z TIME FRAME. NO PCPN EXPECTED. BRIEF MVFR CIGS FROM
015-025 AGL POSSIBLE AT KMSS FROM 06-10Z...OTHERWISE CIGS
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 120 AGL. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY.
AFTER 16Z...WINDS TREND CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY AS STORM
SYSTEM PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A BRIEF SHSN POSSIBLE AT
KRUT. AFTER 22Z CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO BELOW 100 AGL AS TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MOST SHSN ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
OCCUR GENERALLY BEYOND THE TAF FORECAST CYCLE...BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING HAVE OFFERED VCSH AT KMSS/KSLK WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SCT/BKN MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KSLK DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR
MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 240610
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
110 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT ACROSS FOR SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE STORM WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON LEAVING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW HAS JUST MOVED INTO SOUTHERN PA DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ACTIVITY IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AS AIRMASS
ACROSS LOCAL AREA VERY DRY PER 00Z SOUNDINGS. BETTER JET DYNAMICS
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT WILL SPREAD THE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NE
PA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIP GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT DUE TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED AIRMASS AND FAST
MOVING WAVE. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR NEAR TERM
ADJUSTMENTS.

PREVIOUS DISC... SFC LOW DEEPENS OVRNGT AS IT TRACKS FROM ERN NC
TO WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA 12Z SAT. UPR STRUCTURE INCLUDES A
PROGRESSIVE OPEN WV AND DECENT JET STRUCTURE TO AID IN DEEPENING.
SYSTEM IS ABLE TO TAP THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF SO A PD OF
MOD SNOW SEEMS LIKELY OVER THE SE ZONES AHD OF THE UPR TROF.

TEMP PROFILE FVRBL FOR ALL SNOW FOR EVEN THE SRN MOST ZONES AND
LIFT WELL UP INTO THE DENDRITE ZONE...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNDG IS
ISOTHERMAL ABV -10C.

MODELS STILL ZEROING IN ON A SOLN BUT ATTM IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
THE NAM/SREFS THE OUTLIER WITH NEAR WARNING CRITERIA SNOW EDGING
INTO THE SRN ZONES. GEM/EURO/GFS HAVE MUCH LWR AMTS AND KEEP AREA
IN THE ADVISORY. SRN WYOMING CNTY/S HIGHER TERRAIN AND ISSUE AND
WITH AMTS UP THERE EXCEEDING 4 INCHES HAVE ELECTED TO THROW THEM
IN THE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM CONTS TO MVE QUICKLY OUT DESPITE THE CONTD DEEPENING OF THE
UPR LOW. SNOW WILL END QUICKLY SAT AFT 15Z SAT AS THJE PCPN SHIELD
PULLS NE. NARROW RDG BHD THE LOW FLATTENS OUT SAT AFTN AND EARLY
SUN ALLOWING A NW FLOW OF CAA OFF THE LAKES. XPCT SCT SNOW SHWRS
TO BRK OUT LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN. SUN AFTN...RDGG ALREADY
BLDG AHD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER WITH DRIER AIR AND NE FLOW CUTTING
OFF LE. LATEST RUNS ARE PUSHING THE NEXT SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND
SNOW DVLPG SUN AFTN LOKS TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA.

TEMPS THRU THE SHRT TERM WILL BE NEAR NRML WITH GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE GUID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV TRENDED SOUTH FOR UPCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM SUN
NGT/MONDAY. STRONG 1025MB CANADIAN HIGH WL BUILD SOUTH AND SHUNT
SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. 12Z GFS, CMC AND EC TRACK IT CLOSE TO THE
PIEDMONT OF NC WITH 12Z NAM NOW GOING THRU THE HEART OF VA. H5 WV IS
STILL OFFSHORE AND WILL BE COMING INTO NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA
TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW HV LOWERED POPS FOR SUN NGT/MON WITH
SYSTEM NOW LOOKING TO BE A NEAR-MISS FOR CWA.

SFC HIGH WL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN CLDR AIR WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS
DROPPING DOWN TO NR 520DM. H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP BLO -10C WL
YIELD LOWS MON MRNG IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE TEENS ON MONDAY AS NRLY FLOW CONTS TO SUPPLY CLD AIR.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WL BE PRESENT OVR THE AREA STARTING MON
NGT AND HV DROPPED POPS TO SLGT CHC JUST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
NERLY FLOW WL BE PRESENT DRG THIS TIME WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA STARTING THUR MRNG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST...HAS CAUSED SHIELD OF SNOW TO
OVERSPREAD PA INCLUDING KAVP PRIOR TO 06Z. WE ANTICIPATE THAT THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND KBGM. KELM
AND TO A LESSER DEGREE KITH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...BUT
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME
AS PER LATEST MODELS/SOUNDINGS WHICH LEND INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS NOT OCCURRING...THUS NOT INCLUDED WITHIN TAFS. KSYR-
KRME MUCH TOO DRY FOR RESTRICTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND AS
SYSTEM EXITS...MOST OTHER TERMINALS ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME
LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WNW WINDS ROUGHLY 8-12 KTS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH PASSING WAVE ALOFT. AIR WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO INITIATE LAKE CLOUDS BUT ONLY MINOR AT BEST LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING FUEL ALT REQ MVFR CIGS TO FORM FOR
AT LEAST THE NY TERMINALS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES /OF GENERALLY MVFR VIS/.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT -SHSN MAINLY MORNING AT NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT-MON...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE -SN AT KAVP AS CLIPPER PASSES.

MON NGT-TUE...MINOR RESTRICTIONS FROM LAKE CLOUDS AND/OR -SN...MAINLY
NY TERMINALS.

TUE NGT-WED...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 240610
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
110 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT ACROSS FOR SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE STORM WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON LEAVING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW HAS JUST MOVED INTO SOUTHERN PA DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ACTIVITY IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AS AIRMASS
ACROSS LOCAL AREA VERY DRY PER 00Z SOUNDINGS. BETTER JET DYNAMICS
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT WILL SPREAD THE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NE
PA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIP GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT DUE TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED AIRMASS AND FAST
MOVING WAVE. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR NEAR TERM
ADJUSTMENTS.

PREVIOUS DISC... SFC LOW DEEPENS OVRNGT AS IT TRACKS FROM ERN NC
TO WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA 12Z SAT. UPR STRUCTURE INCLUDES A
PROGRESSIVE OPEN WV AND DECENT JET STRUCTURE TO AID IN DEEPENING.
SYSTEM IS ABLE TO TAP THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF SO A PD OF
MOD SNOW SEEMS LIKELY OVER THE SE ZONES AHD OF THE UPR TROF.

TEMP PROFILE FVRBL FOR ALL SNOW FOR EVEN THE SRN MOST ZONES AND
LIFT WELL UP INTO THE DENDRITE ZONE...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNDG IS
ISOTHERMAL ABV -10C.

MODELS STILL ZEROING IN ON A SOLN BUT ATTM IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
THE NAM/SREFS THE OUTLIER WITH NEAR WARNING CRITERIA SNOW EDGING
INTO THE SRN ZONES. GEM/EURO/GFS HAVE MUCH LWR AMTS AND KEEP AREA
IN THE ADVISORY. SRN WYOMING CNTY/S HIGHER TERRAIN AND ISSUE AND
WITH AMTS UP THERE EXCEEDING 4 INCHES HAVE ELECTED TO THROW THEM
IN THE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM CONTS TO MVE QUICKLY OUT DESPITE THE CONTD DEEPENING OF THE
UPR LOW. SNOW WILL END QUICKLY SAT AFT 15Z SAT AS THJE PCPN SHIELD
PULLS NE. NARROW RDG BHD THE LOW FLATTENS OUT SAT AFTN AND EARLY
SUN ALLOWING A NW FLOW OF CAA OFF THE LAKES. XPCT SCT SNOW SHWRS
TO BRK OUT LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN. SUN AFTN...RDGG ALREADY
BLDG AHD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER WITH DRIER AIR AND NE FLOW CUTTING
OFF LE. LATEST RUNS ARE PUSHING THE NEXT SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND
SNOW DVLPG SUN AFTN LOKS TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA.

TEMPS THRU THE SHRT TERM WILL BE NEAR NRML WITH GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE GUID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV TRENDED SOUTH FOR UPCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM SUN
NGT/MONDAY. STRONG 1025MB CANADIAN HIGH WL BUILD SOUTH AND SHUNT
SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. 12Z GFS, CMC AND EC TRACK IT CLOSE TO THE
PIEDMONT OF NC WITH 12Z NAM NOW GOING THRU THE HEART OF VA. H5 WV IS
STILL OFFSHORE AND WILL BE COMING INTO NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA
TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW HV LOWERED POPS FOR SUN NGT/MON WITH
SYSTEM NOW LOOKING TO BE A NEAR-MISS FOR CWA.

SFC HIGH WL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN CLDR AIR WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS
DROPPING DOWN TO NR 520DM. H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP BLO -10C WL
YIELD LOWS MON MRNG IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE TEENS ON MONDAY AS NRLY FLOW CONTS TO SUPPLY CLD AIR.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WL BE PRESENT OVR THE AREA STARTING MON
NGT AND HV DROPPED POPS TO SLGT CHC JUST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
NERLY FLOW WL BE PRESENT DRG THIS TIME WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA STARTING THUR MRNG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST...HAS CAUSED SHIELD OF SNOW TO
OVERSPREAD PA INCLUDING KAVP PRIOR TO 06Z. WE ANTICIPATE THAT THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND KBGM. KELM
AND TO A LESSER DEGREE KITH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...BUT
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME
AS PER LATEST MODELS/SOUNDINGS WHICH LEND INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS NOT OCCURRING...THUS NOT INCLUDED WITHIN TAFS. KSYR-
KRME MUCH TOO DRY FOR RESTRICTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND AS
SYSTEM EXITS...MOST OTHER TERMINALS ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME
LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WNW WINDS ROUGHLY 8-12 KTS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH PASSING WAVE ALOFT. AIR WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO INITIATE LAKE CLOUDS BUT ONLY MINOR AT BEST LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING FUEL ALT REQ MVFR CIGS TO FORM FOR
AT LEAST THE NY TERMINALS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES /OF GENERALLY MVFR VIS/.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT -SHSN MAINLY MORNING AT NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT-MON...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE -SN AT KAVP AS CLIPPER PASSES.

MON NGT-TUE...MINOR RESTRICTIONS FROM LAKE CLOUDS AND/OR -SN...MAINLY
NY TERMINALS.

TUE NGT-WED...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KOKX 240548
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1248 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW MOVES ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THIS MORNING...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A SERIES
OF LOWS PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND. THE HIGH
RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SNOW OVERSPREADING AREA FROM SW TO NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
WILL BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS AROUND HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID
THROUGH 8 AM. WHILE THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT TOWARD
DAYBREAK...IT COULD BE A BATTLE WITH STRONG UPPER FORCING. ITS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL EVEN ALONG THE
COAST BY DAYBREAK. TEMP PROFILES ARE MARGINAL SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DUAL POL RADAR DATA AND HIGH
RES MODELS.

THERMAL PROFILES AND EXPECTED EVAPORATIONAL COOLING POINTS
TOWARDS CONDITIONS COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO START AS SNOW FOR ALL
AREAS. SNOW SHOULD BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FROM SW TO NE BTWN
4-7AM WITH STRONG WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT AND STRONG LIFT
FROM A COUPLE JET STRUCTURE WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.

TEMPS WILL SLOWLY FALL AS TH SNOWFALL PICKS UP IN INTENSITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A QUICK MOVING BUT
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
TEXAS SLIDING TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON...WHILE
INTERACTING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THE TREND HAS BEEN
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE INTENSIFYING SHORTWAVE...WITH FULL
PHASING AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPMENT NE OF THE REGION.
SIMILARLY MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
GULF COAST QUICKLY TRACKING NE TONIGHT TOWARDS THE MID-
ATLANTIC...AND NOW INSIDE OF THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK BY
SATURDAY EVENING. ALL OF THE ABOVE POINTS TO AN INTENSE BUT QUICK
MOVING SYSTEM...WITH A FASTER...MORE WESTWARD TRACK...AND SLIGHTLY
WETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.

AS INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES...AN E/SE LLJ JET BEGINS
TO ADVECT +1-4C 850-900MB AIR FROM S TO N FOR ALL BUT FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. THIS SHOULD TRANSITION
PRECIP TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN FROM S TO N...BTWN 6AM AND 8AM
FOR NY/NJ METRO AND COASTAL AREAS...AND MID MORNING TO MIDDAY
WORKING INTO MUCH OF INTERIOR. INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOR THE NY/NJ
METRO AND COASTAL PLAIN...THAT ENOUGH WARM AIR GETS IN ALOFT FOR A
CHANGE TO MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP (RAIN/FREEZING RAIN) FROM MID
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A BIT FARTHER N AND W...THIS WILL
LIKELY BE A MIX OF SLEET...SNOW...AND FREEZING RAIN. WHILE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SW CT WILL
LIKELY BE MAINLY SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT.

THERMAL PROFILES ARE ONE ISSUE...BUT THE OTHER ISSUE IS BANDING
PLACEMENT AND QPF. BASED ON WESTWARD ENSEMBLE OPER MODEL
TREND...HAVE INCREASED QPF BY ABOUT 1/4 INCH ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE SWEET SPOT FOR DEFORMATION BANDING
POTENTIAL AND COLDER THERMAL PROFILE SAT AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE
ACROSS INTERIOR SW CT AND NORTHEASTERN HUDSON VALLEY ZONES...WITH
THE HIGHEST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL THREAT.

IN TERMS OF SNOW AMOUNTS...THE TOUGH PART OF THIS FORECAST IS
THAT WE COULD BE LOOKING AT 1+ INCH SNOWFALL RATES AS WE ARE ARE
TRANSITIONING SATURDAY MORNING...SO A 1-2 HR TIMING DIFFERENCE IN
CHANGEOVER COULD BE A 1 TO 3 INCH DIFFERENCE IN SNOWFALL. FOR THE
NYC/NJ METRO AND COAST MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUM SHOULD BE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. A GENERAL 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE STILL
LOOKS REASONABLE THERE...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS NE NJ...LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...AND SW CT. AGAIN WITH BEST BANDING POTENTIAL AND
WESTWARD MODEL DRIFT ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SW CT ZONES
AND PUTNAM COUNTY...5 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED THERE...AND A WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED.

IN TERM OF FREEZING RAIN THREAT...ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE FROM THE
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW SHOULD KEEP WINDS MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH
THE PEAK OF THE STORM. THIS TYPICALLY PROMOTES COLD AIR DRAINAGE
DOWN THE HUDSON AND CT RIVER VALLEYS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD SURFACE
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW FOR NY/NJ METRO...NORTH SHORE
OF LI...AND COASTAL SW/SC CT THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING(AFTER
CHANGEOVER). SO POTENTIAL OF UP TO TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCRETION AWAY FROM SOUTH COASTAL LI/NYC IN THE MORNING. HEAVIEST
ICE ACCRETION LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN CT...WITH WARMER AIR WORKING
IN ALOFT BUT SURFACE TEMPS REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING. POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ICE HERE.

IN TERMS OF WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE SAT
AFTERNOON...PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GENERALLY 10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 30S. A PEAK GUST TO 40 MPH IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT.

ACROSS LI AND COASTAL CT...HEAVY RAIN SAT MORN/EARLY AFT AND EARLIER
SNOW MAY RESULT IN SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING ISSUES. ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THERMAL PROFILES APPEARS TO COOL ENOUGH BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
FOR A CHANGE BACK TO SLEET THEN SNOW DOWN TO COAST...BUT QUESTION
WILL BE HOW MUCH PRECIP IS LEFT. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR
SOUTH BANDING POTENTIAL EXISTS...AND WILL NOT LIKELY BECOME CLEAR
UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON. WITH PROGRESSIVE TREND OF THE UPPER TROUGH
EXPECTING ADDITIONAL ACCUM FOR THE METRO/COAST TO BE LIGHT
(COATING TO 3 INCHES) MID-LATE SAT AFT INTO EARLY SAT EVE FOR
NY/NJ METRO AND COAST AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN. AS MENTIONED
BEFORE...THE SWEET SPOT FOR DEFORMATION BANDING SAT AFTERNOON
STILL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT ZONES.

ANY SNOW COMES TO AND END LATE SAT AFTERNOON/EARLY SAT
EVENING...WITH BREEZY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY...GIVES WAY TO WEAK RIDGING SUNDAY
EVENING. SO IT SHOULD BE DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.

THE MODELS ARE MOVING TOWARDS A CONSENSUS OF ANY STORM SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK STAYING FAR ENOUGH TO THE S AND E TO PROBABLY HAVE LITTLE
OR NO IMPACT ON THE REGION. THE REASON FOR THIS IS THAT THERE NO
LONGER IS ANY - OR AT MOST VERY WEAK - PHASING PREDICTED BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...SO THE SOUTHERN STREAM DRIVEN
SURFACE LOW WILL END UP TAKING A FARTHER S PATH...AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY STAYS TO OUR N...LEAVING THE REGION HAVING NO TO
LITTLE FORCING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT.

TO GUARD AGAINST THE MODELS SWINGING THINGS BACK IN THE OTHER
DIRECTION ONLY REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE N AND LOW END CHANCE
SOUTH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF ULTIMATELY THE FORECAST ENDED UP BEING DRY FOR MOST
IF NOT ALL THE AREA IN THIS TIME FRAME. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.

WHAT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THAT A SOLID SHOT OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR
PUSHES IN FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...AS A MEAN
ROUGH SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES BEING MUCH BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WIND CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE MAINLY FROM 5 TO 15 SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN FROM AROUND 0 TO -10 MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ONLY IN THE TEENS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THEN IN THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY.

RIDGING BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN WILL SLOWLY APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A
MIX DOWN FROM 975-900 HPA WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY - WITH VALUES
FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED...WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FROM MONDAY-FRIDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS
USED...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN AS WELL ON
MONDAY...AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL RUN AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH THE COLDEST DAY BEING TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 10S TO MID 20S...AND THE COLDEST NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

   ...HIGH IMPACT AVIATION WINTER EVENT OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST MOVES NORTHEAST AND
DEEPENS OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING SATURDAY...MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT
AND BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER. A WINTRY MIX MOVES IN ALONG
THE COAST TOWARD MORNING AND FARTHER INLAND EARLY SATURDAY. A CHANGE
TO ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS SATURDAY MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN A CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW IS LIKELY
AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

IN GENERAL...3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY WITH AROUND 2 INCHES AT
KISP. A TRACE OF ICE AND SLEET IS ALSO LIKELY.

CONDITIONS QUICKLY LOWER TO IFR AS THE SNOW BECOMES STEADY. IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF SATURDAY BEFORE IMPROVING BY SATURDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF MIXING AND CHANGEOVER AND
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. W TO NW WIND 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. WEST WIND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SNOW POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
INITIALLY...CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SCA WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. HOWEVER...THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...GIVING WAY TO APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. NE WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE TO SCA TOWARDS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
WILL ALSO BRING HIGHER SEAS. MARGINAL GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE
OCEAN AT THIS TIME.

WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND THEN NW DURING THE DAY SAT AS LOW
TRACKS SE OF THE REGION AND DEEPENS...WITH SCA CONDS CONTINUING
ELSEWHERE. GALES EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS SAT AFT
INTO SAT NIGHT. OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 10 FT IN RESPONSE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON ALL WATERS ON SUNDAY...WITH A
BRIEF LULL ON SUNDAY NIGHT..EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE ON ALL WATERS...WITH
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A
COASTAL LOW PASSING TO THE S AND E OF LONG ISLAND.

SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET WILL
REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH QPF
UP TO 1 TO 1 1/4 INCH ACROSS LI/SE CT...AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS NE NJ
AND SW CT...TO 1/2 INCH FOR AREAS FAR NW OF NYC. THIS WILL FALL AS
A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND RAIN.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY-FRIDAY...WITH
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY-THURSDAY FORECAST TO BE DRY.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS WILL APPROACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN LI/NYC SOUTH SHORE BAYS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON SAT...LOCALLY TOUCHING MINOR THRESHOLDS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ007>011.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005-
     006.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067-
     069>075-078-080-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ068.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/NV/DW
NEAR TERM...NV/DW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MET/DS
MARINE...JM/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









000
FXUS61 KOKX 240548
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1248 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW MOVES ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THIS MORNING...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A SERIES
OF LOWS PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND. THE HIGH
RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SNOW OVERSPREADING AREA FROM SW TO NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
WILL BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS AROUND HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID
THROUGH 8 AM. WHILE THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT TOWARD
DAYBREAK...IT COULD BE A BATTLE WITH STRONG UPPER FORCING. ITS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL EVEN ALONG THE
COAST BY DAYBREAK. TEMP PROFILES ARE MARGINAL SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DUAL POL RADAR DATA AND HIGH
RES MODELS.

THERMAL PROFILES AND EXPECTED EVAPORATIONAL COOLING POINTS
TOWARDS CONDITIONS COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO START AS SNOW FOR ALL
AREAS. SNOW SHOULD BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FROM SW TO NE BTWN
4-7AM WITH STRONG WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT AND STRONG LIFT
FROM A COUPLE JET STRUCTURE WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.

TEMPS WILL SLOWLY FALL AS TH SNOWFALL PICKS UP IN INTENSITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A QUICK MOVING BUT
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
TEXAS SLIDING TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON...WHILE
INTERACTING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THE TREND HAS BEEN
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE INTENSIFYING SHORTWAVE...WITH FULL
PHASING AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPMENT NE OF THE REGION.
SIMILARLY MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
GULF COAST QUICKLY TRACKING NE TONIGHT TOWARDS THE MID-
ATLANTIC...AND NOW INSIDE OF THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK BY
SATURDAY EVENING. ALL OF THE ABOVE POINTS TO AN INTENSE BUT QUICK
MOVING SYSTEM...WITH A FASTER...MORE WESTWARD TRACK...AND SLIGHTLY
WETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.

AS INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES...AN E/SE LLJ JET BEGINS
TO ADVECT +1-4C 850-900MB AIR FROM S TO N FOR ALL BUT FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. THIS SHOULD TRANSITION
PRECIP TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN FROM S TO N...BTWN 6AM AND 8AM
FOR NY/NJ METRO AND COASTAL AREAS...AND MID MORNING TO MIDDAY
WORKING INTO MUCH OF INTERIOR. INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOR THE NY/NJ
METRO AND COASTAL PLAIN...THAT ENOUGH WARM AIR GETS IN ALOFT FOR A
CHANGE TO MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP (RAIN/FREEZING RAIN) FROM MID
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A BIT FARTHER N AND W...THIS WILL
LIKELY BE A MIX OF SLEET...SNOW...AND FREEZING RAIN. WHILE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SW CT WILL
LIKELY BE MAINLY SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT.

THERMAL PROFILES ARE ONE ISSUE...BUT THE OTHER ISSUE IS BANDING
PLACEMENT AND QPF. BASED ON WESTWARD ENSEMBLE OPER MODEL
TREND...HAVE INCREASED QPF BY ABOUT 1/4 INCH ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE SWEET SPOT FOR DEFORMATION BANDING
POTENTIAL AND COLDER THERMAL PROFILE SAT AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE
ACROSS INTERIOR SW CT AND NORTHEASTERN HUDSON VALLEY ZONES...WITH
THE HIGHEST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL THREAT.

IN TERMS OF SNOW AMOUNTS...THE TOUGH PART OF THIS FORECAST IS
THAT WE COULD BE LOOKING AT 1+ INCH SNOWFALL RATES AS WE ARE ARE
TRANSITIONING SATURDAY MORNING...SO A 1-2 HR TIMING DIFFERENCE IN
CHANGEOVER COULD BE A 1 TO 3 INCH DIFFERENCE IN SNOWFALL. FOR THE
NYC/NJ METRO AND COAST MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUM SHOULD BE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. A GENERAL 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE STILL
LOOKS REASONABLE THERE...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS NE NJ...LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...AND SW CT. AGAIN WITH BEST BANDING POTENTIAL AND
WESTWARD MODEL DRIFT ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SW CT ZONES
AND PUTNAM COUNTY...5 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED THERE...AND A WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED.

IN TERM OF FREEZING RAIN THREAT...ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE FROM THE
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW SHOULD KEEP WINDS MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH
THE PEAK OF THE STORM. THIS TYPICALLY PROMOTES COLD AIR DRAINAGE
DOWN THE HUDSON AND CT RIVER VALLEYS...WHICH SHOULD HOLD SURFACE
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW FOR NY/NJ METRO...NORTH SHORE
OF LI...AND COASTAL SW/SC CT THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING(AFTER
CHANGEOVER). SO POTENTIAL OF UP TO TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCRETION AWAY FROM SOUTH COASTAL LI/NYC IN THE MORNING. HEAVIEST
ICE ACCRETION LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN CT...WITH WARMER AIR WORKING
IN ALOFT BUT SURFACE TEMPS REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING. POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ICE HERE.

IN TERMS OF WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE SAT
AFTERNOON...PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GENERALLY 10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 30S. A PEAK GUST TO 40 MPH IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT.

ACROSS LI AND COASTAL CT...HEAVY RAIN SAT MORN/EARLY AFT AND EARLIER
SNOW MAY RESULT IN SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING ISSUES. ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THERMAL PROFILES APPEARS TO COOL ENOUGH BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
FOR A CHANGE BACK TO SLEET THEN SNOW DOWN TO COAST...BUT QUESTION
WILL BE HOW MUCH PRECIP IS LEFT. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR
SOUTH BANDING POTENTIAL EXISTS...AND WILL NOT LIKELY BECOME CLEAR
UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON. WITH PROGRESSIVE TREND OF THE UPPER TROUGH
EXPECTING ADDITIONAL ACCUM FOR THE METRO/COAST TO BE LIGHT
(COATING TO 3 INCHES) MID-LATE SAT AFT INTO EARLY SAT EVE FOR
NY/NJ METRO AND COAST AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN. AS MENTIONED
BEFORE...THE SWEET SPOT FOR DEFORMATION BANDING SAT AFTERNOON
STILL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT ZONES.

ANY SNOW COMES TO AND END LATE SAT AFTERNOON/EARLY SAT
EVENING...WITH BREEZY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY...GIVES WAY TO WEAK RIDGING SUNDAY
EVENING. SO IT SHOULD BE DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.

THE MODELS ARE MOVING TOWARDS A CONSENSUS OF ANY STORM SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK STAYING FAR ENOUGH TO THE S AND E TO PROBABLY HAVE LITTLE
OR NO IMPACT ON THE REGION. THE REASON FOR THIS IS THAT THERE NO
LONGER IS ANY - OR AT MOST VERY WEAK - PHASING PREDICTED BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...SO THE SOUTHERN STREAM DRIVEN
SURFACE LOW WILL END UP TAKING A FARTHER S PATH...AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY STAYS TO OUR N...LEAVING THE REGION HAVING NO TO
LITTLE FORCING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT.

TO GUARD AGAINST THE MODELS SWINGING THINGS BACK IN THE OTHER
DIRECTION ONLY REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE N AND LOW END CHANCE
SOUTH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF ULTIMATELY THE FORECAST ENDED UP BEING DRY FOR MOST
IF NOT ALL THE AREA IN THIS TIME FRAME. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.

WHAT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THAT A SOLID SHOT OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR
PUSHES IN FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...AS A MEAN
ROUGH SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES BEING MUCH BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WIND CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE MAINLY FROM 5 TO 15 SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN FROM AROUND 0 TO -10 MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ONLY IN THE TEENS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THEN IN THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY.

RIDGING BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN WILL SLOWLY APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A
MIX DOWN FROM 975-900 HPA WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY - WITH VALUES
FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED...WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FROM MONDAY-FRIDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS
USED...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN AS WELL ON
MONDAY...AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL RUN AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH THE COLDEST DAY BEING TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 10S TO MID 20S...AND THE COLDEST NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

   ...HIGH IMPACT AVIATION WINTER EVENT OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST MOVES NORTHEAST AND
DEEPENS OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING SATURDAY...MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT
AND BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER. A WINTRY MIX MOVES IN ALONG
THE COAST TOWARD MORNING AND FARTHER INLAND EARLY SATURDAY. A CHANGE
TO ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS SATURDAY MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN A CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW IS LIKELY
AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

IN GENERAL...3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY WITH AROUND 2 INCHES AT
KISP. A TRACE OF ICE AND SLEET IS ALSO LIKELY.

CONDITIONS QUICKLY LOWER TO IFR AS THE SNOW BECOMES STEADY. IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF SATURDAY BEFORE IMPROVING BY SATURDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF MIXING AND CHANGEOVER AND
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. W TO NW WIND 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. WEST WIND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SNOW POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
INITIALLY...CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SCA WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. HOWEVER...THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...GIVING WAY TO APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. NE WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE TO SCA TOWARDS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
WILL ALSO BRING HIGHER SEAS. MARGINAL GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE
OCEAN AT THIS TIME.

WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND THEN NW DURING THE DAY SAT AS LOW
TRACKS SE OF THE REGION AND DEEPENS...WITH SCA CONDS CONTINUING
ELSEWHERE. GALES EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS SAT AFT
INTO SAT NIGHT. OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 10 FT IN RESPONSE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON ALL WATERS ON SUNDAY...WITH A
BRIEF LULL ON SUNDAY NIGHT..EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE ON ALL WATERS...WITH
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A
COASTAL LOW PASSING TO THE S AND E OF LONG ISLAND.

SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET WILL
REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH QPF
UP TO 1 TO 1 1/4 INCH ACROSS LI/SE CT...AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS NE NJ
AND SW CT...TO 1/2 INCH FOR AREAS FAR NW OF NYC. THIS WILL FALL AS
A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND RAIN.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY-FRIDAY...WITH
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY-THURSDAY FORECAST TO BE DRY.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS WILL APPROACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN LI/NYC SOUTH SHORE BAYS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON SAT...LOCALLY TOUCHING MINOR THRESHOLDS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ007>011.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005-
     006.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067-
     069>075-078-080-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ068.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/NV/DW
NEAR TERM...NV/DW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MET/DS
MARINE...JM/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KBTV 240538
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1238 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A COASTAL LOW ON SATURDAY,
RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT FROM
THE COASTAL LOW AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK
INTO EASTERN VERMONT LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION,
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1217 AM EST SATURDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT CHANGES MADE FOR
1230 UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

GOING FORECAST STILL LOOKING GOOD. WITH LATEST UPDATE...MADE JUST
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS FOR TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. SKIES MAINLY CLEAR OVER SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...WITH MORE CLOUDS
OVER THE NORTH. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS SCENARIO THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD DECREASE AND
LIFT NORTH...WHILE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN AREAS. ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...BUT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT
WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT 20 TO 25 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST
LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION... WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH BRINGING CLOUDS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM TIME TO TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S WITH WARMEST AREAS BEING IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, WHERE CLOUDS WILL
BE SLOWEST TO ERODE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO APPROACHING CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE. MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH
A COASTAL LOW. BUT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM EITHER SYSTEM SHOULD
HOLD OFF TIL SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...A TALE OF TWO LOW PRESSURES - AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY GETS SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THEM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH, REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA ON
SATURDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN LITTLE IMPACT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH AND WEST, WHICH WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW
TO INFILTRATE RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES SATURDAY
MORNING...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AS FOR THE
NORTHERN LOW, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN NY MAINLY IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL BE SHIFTING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY AND OVERNIGHT, HELPING TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. ALSO IN THIS NW FLOW, LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND PRONOUNCED
COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
RESULTING IN NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. WITH 925 MB AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO ABOUT -20C, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
EARLY IN THE DAY AND ONLY BE IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S
SOUTH. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE FILTERING IN ON THE NW FLOW, WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NO PRECIPITATION. AS TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS
COMES TO AN END, EXPECT STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR
LESS, THOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SETTLES IN. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO, RANGING FROM
-12F TO -2F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EST FRIDAY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO MAJOR WINTER STORMS
EXPECTED...AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY...BUT THIS LOW WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AS A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE REGION WILL COME UNDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST
FROM CANADA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP LATER ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCT/BKN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINALS DURING
THE 06-18Z TIME FRAME. NO PCPN EXPECTED. BRIEF MVFR CIGS FROM
015-025 AGL POSSIBLE AT KMSS FROM 06-10Z...OTHERWISE CIGS
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 120 AGL. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY.
AFTER 16Z...WINDS TREND CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY AS STORM
SYSTEM PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A BRIEF SHSN POSSIBLE AT
KRUT. AFTER 22Z CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO BELOW 100 AGL AS TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MOST SHSN ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
OCCUR GENERALLY BEYOND THE TAF FORECAST CYCLE...BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING HAVE OFFERED VCSH AT KMSS/KSLK WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SCT/BKN MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KSLK DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR
MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH



000
FXUS61 KALY 240523
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1223 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES WILL RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR`EASTER AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...TO SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR AREAS FROM MAINLY THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER LITCHFIELD COUNTY. ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HOWEVER...WHERE CLOUDS REMAINED THINNER EARLIER THIS
EVENING...TEMPS PLUMMETED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION.

LIGHT SNOW WAS JUST BEGINNING TO REACH THE SFC ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND THE NYC/WESTERN LI AREA...EXTENDING INTO
NORTHERN NJ AND NE PA. IT APPEARS THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SNOW SHOULD REACH THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND AT LEAST SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD CO CT BETWEEN 1 AND 3 AM...BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD
THEREAFTER. HAVE TWEAKED GRIDDED DATABASE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND TIMING. ALSO...EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY RISE IN
MOST AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MAY BRIEFLY
FALL BACK A FEW DEGREES ONCE SNOW DEVELOPS DUE TO SOME WET BULB
COOLING EFFECTS.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH DAYBREAK FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AS
THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE
DELMARVA AND AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290-295K SURFACE INCREASES.

FORECAST MODELS...INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM HAVE ALL SHIFTED
THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE NORTH AND WEST FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
THIS TREND STARTED WITH LAST NIGHT/S 00Z ECMWF RUN...AND HAS
CONTINUED TODAY. A POSSIBLE REASON FOR THE SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO INCREASE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHICH IN TURN COULD CAUSE THE STORM TO TRACK CLOSER TO
THE COAST. WE HAVE ADJUSTED WINTER HEADLINES AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS EXPECTED SHIFT.

THIS STORM WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT DEEPENS CLOSE TO 24 MB
IN 24 HOURS FROM 06Z SATURDAY AROUND 996MB JUST OFF THE DELMARVA TO
06Z SUNDAY AROUND 963MB OVER NEW BRUNSWICK. FRONTOGENESIS ON THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO BANDING...ALTHOUGH AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOST OF THE STRONGEST FORCING AND HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS BANDING IS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH ONE INCH PER HOUR AT
TIMES YIELDING STORM TOTALS OF AROUND 5-9 INCHES. THERMAL PROFILES
HAVE TRENDED COLDER AS WELL...SO WILL JUST MENTION SOME SLEET
POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD FROM MID MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

TO THE NORTH AND WEST THERE WILL BE ENOUGH QPF WITHOUT BANDING TO
RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTY. ALSO INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR 1-3 INCHES
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE ADVISORY AREA. AREAS
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SHOULD SEE LITTLE IF
ANY SNOW. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
AMOUNTS WOULD INCREASE.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS FOR SUBSEQUENT CHANGES...AS
THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPMENTAL STAGES WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION AND MAY END UP SHIFTING THE TRACK FURTHER.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IT WILL LIKELY SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TACONICS TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THERE WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO FEATURE MUCH QUIETER
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED
TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO MAY
ACCUMULATE...AS THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE MOISTURE
THERE.

COLDER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF ALBANY EARLY SUNDAY...OTHERWISE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. A
VERY COLD NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILD MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING IN VERY COLD
AIR. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT POSSIBLY WELL BELOW ZERO OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RATHER TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH AN INCREASE IN ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

MONDAY...
RECENT TRENDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.  RECENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THIS WAVE WILL TRACK CLOSER TO THE I70 CORRIDOR THAN THE I80
CORRIDOR.  THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST HANDLED THIS VERY WELL
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE POPS/WX.  THE 1025MB SURFACE HIGH
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWFA RATHER DRY WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED.  AS H850
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE -10C/-12C...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT...
CONSENSUS FAVORS A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN AS SUGGESTED BY
THE ECMWF/GGEM AS THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE UPPER PATTERN
THEREFORE SLOWER WITH THE EXIT OF THIS WAVE.  PER WPC GUIDANCE...WE
WILL KEEP OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DRY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.  AS SURFACE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND A CLEARING TREND EXPECTED...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE RATHER CHILLY WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS EXPECTED INTO THE
TERRAIN AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
AN ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE RIDGE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
RESULT A IN PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER AND A SLOW RETURN TO
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF JANUARY.  PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.

THURSDAY...
STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
EARLIER IN THE WEEK QUICKLY RACES ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AND
AMPLIFIES SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHER POPS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.  INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE WITH
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AS
THE STORM DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
SATURDAY. SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH AND IMPACT KPOU-KPSF FIRST WITH A
DROP TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. THEN THIS SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO KALB AROUND SUNRISE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. FOR
KGFL...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS THIS
LOCATION SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST FROM IMPACTS OF THIS
STORM. A PERIOD OF IFR IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING FROM KALB-
KPOU-KPSF WHEN THE GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

AS THIS STORM INTENSIFIES TO OUR EAST...THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
TO SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY VFR BTWN 22Z AND 00Z.

WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A TENDENCY TO BECOME
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
10KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE TO
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY SATURDAY NIGHT.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS AND RECENTLY HAS EXHIBITED A DECREASE IN GAGE
LEVELS /BELOW FLOOD STAGE/.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ061-064>066.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/11
HYDROLOGY...JPV







000
FXUS61 KALY 240523
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1223 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES WILL RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR`EASTER AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...TO SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR AREAS FROM MAINLY THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER LITCHFIELD COUNTY. ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HOWEVER...WHERE CLOUDS REMAINED THINNER EARLIER THIS
EVENING...TEMPS PLUMMETED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION.

LIGHT SNOW WAS JUST BEGINNING TO REACH THE SFC ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND THE NYC/WESTERN LI AREA...EXTENDING INTO
NORTHERN NJ AND NE PA. IT APPEARS THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SNOW SHOULD REACH THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND AT LEAST SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD CO CT BETWEEN 1 AND 3 AM...BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD
THEREAFTER. HAVE TWEAKED GRIDDED DATABASE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND TIMING. ALSO...EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY RISE IN
MOST AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MAY BRIEFLY
FALL BACK A FEW DEGREES ONCE SNOW DEVELOPS DUE TO SOME WET BULB
COOLING EFFECTS.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH DAYBREAK FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AS
THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE
DELMARVA AND AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290-295K SURFACE INCREASES.

FORECAST MODELS...INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM HAVE ALL SHIFTED
THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE NORTH AND WEST FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
THIS TREND STARTED WITH LAST NIGHT/S 00Z ECMWF RUN...AND HAS
CONTINUED TODAY. A POSSIBLE REASON FOR THE SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO INCREASE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHICH IN TURN COULD CAUSE THE STORM TO TRACK CLOSER TO
THE COAST. WE HAVE ADJUSTED WINTER HEADLINES AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS EXPECTED SHIFT.

THIS STORM WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT DEEPENS CLOSE TO 24 MB
IN 24 HOURS FROM 06Z SATURDAY AROUND 996MB JUST OFF THE DELMARVA TO
06Z SUNDAY AROUND 963MB OVER NEW BRUNSWICK. FRONTOGENESIS ON THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO BANDING...ALTHOUGH AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOST OF THE STRONGEST FORCING AND HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS BANDING IS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH ONE INCH PER HOUR AT
TIMES YIELDING STORM TOTALS OF AROUND 5-9 INCHES. THERMAL PROFILES
HAVE TRENDED COLDER AS WELL...SO WILL JUST MENTION SOME SLEET
POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD FROM MID MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

TO THE NORTH AND WEST THERE WILL BE ENOUGH QPF WITHOUT BANDING TO
RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTY. ALSO INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR 1-3 INCHES
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE ADVISORY AREA. AREAS
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SHOULD SEE LITTLE IF
ANY SNOW. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
AMOUNTS WOULD INCREASE.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS FOR SUBSEQUENT CHANGES...AS
THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPMENTAL STAGES WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION AND MAY END UP SHIFTING THE TRACK FURTHER.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IT WILL LIKELY SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TACONICS TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THERE WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO FEATURE MUCH QUIETER
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED
TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO MAY
ACCUMULATE...AS THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE MOISTURE
THERE.

COLDER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF ALBANY EARLY SUNDAY...OTHERWISE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. A
VERY COLD NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILD MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING IN VERY COLD
AIR. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT POSSIBLY WELL BELOW ZERO OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RATHER TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH AN INCREASE IN ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

MONDAY...
RECENT TRENDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.  RECENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THIS WAVE WILL TRACK CLOSER TO THE I70 CORRIDOR THAN THE I80
CORRIDOR.  THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST HANDLED THIS VERY WELL
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE POPS/WX.  THE 1025MB SURFACE HIGH
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWFA RATHER DRY WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED.  AS H850
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE -10C/-12C...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT...
CONSENSUS FAVORS A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN AS SUGGESTED BY
THE ECMWF/GGEM AS THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE UPPER PATTERN
THEREFORE SLOWER WITH THE EXIT OF THIS WAVE.  PER WPC GUIDANCE...WE
WILL KEEP OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DRY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.  AS SURFACE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND A CLEARING TREND EXPECTED...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE RATHER CHILLY WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS EXPECTED INTO THE
TERRAIN AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
AN ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE RIDGE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
RESULT A IN PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER AND A SLOW RETURN TO
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF JANUARY.  PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.

THURSDAY...
STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
EARLIER IN THE WEEK QUICKLY RACES ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AND
AMPLIFIES SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHER POPS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.  INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE WITH
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AS
THE STORM DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
SATURDAY. SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH AND IMPACT KPOU-KPSF FIRST WITH A
DROP TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. THEN THIS SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO KALB AROUND SUNRISE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. FOR
KGFL...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS THIS
LOCATION SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST FROM IMPACTS OF THIS
STORM. A PERIOD OF IFR IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING FROM KALB-
KPOU-KPSF WHEN THE GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

AS THIS STORM INTENSIFIES TO OUR EAST...THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
TO SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY VFR BTWN 22Z AND 00Z.

WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A TENDENCY TO BECOME
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
10KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE TO
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY SATURDAY NIGHT.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS AND RECENTLY HAS EXHIBITED A DECREASE IN GAGE
LEVELS /BELOW FLOOD STAGE/.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ061-064>066.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/11
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 240520
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1220 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A COASTAL LOW ON SATURDAY,
RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT FROM
THE COASTAL LOW AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK
INTO EASTERN VERMONT LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION,
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1217 AM EST SATURDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT CHANGES MADE FOR
1230 UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

GOING FORECAST STILL LOOKING GOOD. WITH LATEST UPDATE...MADE JUST
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS FOR TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. SKIES MAINLY CLEAR OVER SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...WITH MORE CLOUDS
OVER THE NORTH. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS SCENARIO THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD DECREASE AND
LIFT NORTH...WHILE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN AREAS. ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...BUT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT
WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT 20 TO 25 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST
LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION... WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH BRINGING CLOUDS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM TIME TO TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S WITH WARMEST AREAS BEING IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, WHERE CLOUDS WILL
BE SLOWEST TO ERODE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO APPROACHING CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE. MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH
A COASTAL LOW. BUT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM EITHER SYSTEM SHOULD
HOLD OFF TIL SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...A TALE OF TWO LOW PRESSURES - AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY GETS SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THEM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH, REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA ON
SATURDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN LITTLE IMPACT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH AND WEST, WHICH WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW
TO INFILTRATE RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES SATURDAY
MORNING...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AS FOR THE
NORTHERN LOW, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN NY MAINLY IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL BE SHIFTING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY AND OVERNIGHT, HELPING TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. ALSO IN THIS NW FLOW, LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND PRONOUNCED
COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
RESULTING IN NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. WITH 925 MB AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO ABOUT -20C, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
EARLY IN THE DAY AND ONLY BE IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S
SOUTH. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE FILTERING IN ON THE NW FLOW, WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NO PRECIPITATION. AS TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS
COMES TO AN END, EXPECT STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR
LESS, THOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SETTLES IN. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO, RANGING FROM
-12F TO -2F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EST FRIDAY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO MAJOR WINTER STORMS
EXPECTED...AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY...BUT THIS LOW WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AS A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE REGION WILL COME UNDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST
FROM CANADA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP LATER ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR (EXCEPTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AT MSS) TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
CONTINUE PARTICULARLY AT MSS AND BTV, THOUGH STRONGEST AT MSS DUE
TO LOW/ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT PASSING TO NORTH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WILL SEE SOME AREAS OF LLWS TONIGHT IN AREAS WHERE
SOUTHWEST FLOW SLACKENS, THOUGH FEEL BEST CHANCE OF THAT AT SLK.
DISTANT COASTAL SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY WILL ONLY HAVE FRINGE EFFECTS
ON THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE. ANY LIGHT SNOW LIMITED TO RUT AFTER 14Z BUT
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS BUT WITH SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR
MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 240520
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1220 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A COASTAL LOW ON SATURDAY,
RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT FROM
THE COASTAL LOW AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK
INTO EASTERN VERMONT LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION,
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1217 AM EST SATURDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT CHANGES MADE FOR
1230 UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

GOING FORECAST STILL LOOKING GOOD. WITH LATEST UPDATE...MADE JUST
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS FOR TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. SKIES MAINLY CLEAR OVER SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...WITH MORE CLOUDS
OVER THE NORTH. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS SCENARIO THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD DECREASE AND
LIFT NORTH...WHILE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN AREAS. ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...BUT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT
WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT 20 TO 25 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST
LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION... WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH BRINGING CLOUDS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM TIME TO TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S WITH WARMEST AREAS BEING IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, WHERE CLOUDS WILL
BE SLOWEST TO ERODE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO APPROACHING CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE. MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH
A COASTAL LOW. BUT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM EITHER SYSTEM SHOULD
HOLD OFF TIL SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...A TALE OF TWO LOW PRESSURES - AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY GETS SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THEM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH, REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA ON
SATURDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN LITTLE IMPACT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH AND WEST, WHICH WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW
TO INFILTRATE RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES SATURDAY
MORNING...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AS FOR THE
NORTHERN LOW, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN NY MAINLY IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL BE SHIFTING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY AND OVERNIGHT, HELPING TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. ALSO IN THIS NW FLOW, LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND PRONOUNCED
COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
RESULTING IN NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. WITH 925 MB AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO ABOUT -20C, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
EARLY IN THE DAY AND ONLY BE IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S
SOUTH. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE FILTERING IN ON THE NW FLOW, WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NO PRECIPITATION. AS TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS
COMES TO AN END, EXPECT STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR
LESS, THOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SETTLES IN. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO, RANGING FROM
-12F TO -2F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EST FRIDAY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO MAJOR WINTER STORMS
EXPECTED...AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY...BUT THIS LOW WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AS A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE REGION WILL COME UNDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST
FROM CANADA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP LATER ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR (EXCEPTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AT MSS) TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
CONTINUE PARTICULARLY AT MSS AND BTV, THOUGH STRONGEST AT MSS DUE
TO LOW/ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT PASSING TO NORTH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WILL SEE SOME AREAS OF LLWS TONIGHT IN AREAS WHERE
SOUTHWEST FLOW SLACKENS, THOUGH FEEL BEST CHANCE OF THAT AT SLK.
DISTANT COASTAL SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY WILL ONLY HAVE FRINGE EFFECTS
ON THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE. ANY LIGHT SNOW LIMITED TO RUT AFTER 14Z BUT
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS BUT WITH SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR
MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH




000
FXUS61 KALY 240509
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1209 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES WILL RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR`EASTER AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...TO SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR AREAS FROM MAINLY THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER LITCHFIELD COUNTY. ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EST...AFTER A REVIEW OF THE 00Z/NAM12 AND 00Z/01Z RAP
/USAF RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PERFORMED SEVERAL DROPSONDES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS THIS EVENING THAT WILL BENEFIT THE 00Z GUIDANCE./
     NO CHANGES TO CURRENT HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. HIGH AND SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH
MID LEVEL REFLECTIVITIES ON THE INCREASE.  LATEST 3HR ISALLOBARIC
PRESSURE DROPS WERE NOW TRANSFERRING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER.  DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE
HAS WEAKENED AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH WAS APPROACHING THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. PER THE
HRRR/RAP13...SNOW ARRIVAL TIME STILL LOOKS GOOD PER THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH JUST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.  IT SHOULD QUICKLY EXPAND
FURTHER NORTH OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AROUND
SUNRISE SATURDAY.  QPF FROM THE NAM/RAP HAS INCREASED A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES SO DID SLIGHTLY MODIFY UPWARD THE
SNOW AMOUNTS BUT NO CHANGES TO THE STORM TOTAL FORECAST.

WITH A QUICK CLEARING THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES RESPONDED AND HAVE
MODIFIED HOURLIES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES.  WITH
THE CLOUD COVER INCREASING...THESE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STEADY OFF.

PREV DISC..
UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EXPANDED TO EASTERN
COLUMBIA...NORTHERN BERKSHIRE AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR EASTERN ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY.

AS OF 430 PM EST...SKIES HAVE BECOME MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH THE
REGION EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN THIS
EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS A DEEPENING CYCLONE TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE CAROLINAS.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT...AS THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE DELMARVA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH SNOW BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290-295K SURFACE
INCREASES.

FORECAST MODELS...INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM HAVE ALL SHIFTED
THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE NORTH AND WEST FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
THIS TREND STARTED WITH LAST NIGHT/S 00Z ECMWF RUN...AND HAS
CONTINUED TODAY. A POSSIBLE REASON FOR THE SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO INCREASE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHICH IN TURN COULD CAUSE THE STORM TO TRACK CLOSER TO
THE COAST. WE HAVE ADJUSTED WINTER HEADLINES AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS EXPECTED SHIFT.

THIS STORM WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT DEEPENS CLOSE TO 24 MB
IN 24 HOURS FROM 06Z SATURDAY AROUND 996MB JUST OFF THE DELMARVA TO
06Z SUNDAY AROUND 963MB OVER NEW BRUNSWICK. FRONTOGENESIS ON THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO BANDING...ALTHOUGH AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOST OF THE STRONGEST FORCING AND HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS BANDING IS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH ONE INCH PER HOUR AT
TIMES YIELDING STORM TOTALS OF AROUND 5-9 INCHES. THERMAL PROFILES
HAVE TRENDED COLDER AS WELL...SO WILL JUST MENTION SOME SLEET
POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD FROM MID MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

TO THE NORTH AND WEST THERE WILL BE ENOUGH QPF WITHOUT BANDING TO
RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTY. ALSO INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR 1-3 INCHES
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE ADVISORY AREA. AREAS
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SHOULD SEE LITTLE IF
ANY SNOW. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
AMOUNTS WOULD INCREASE.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS FOR SUBSEQUENT CHANGES...AS
THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPMENTAL STAGES WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION AND MAY END UP SHIFTING THE TRACK FURTHER.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IT WILL LIKELY SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TACONICS TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THERE WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO FEATURE MUCH QUIETER
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED
TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO MAY
ACCUMULATE...AS THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE MOISTURE
THERE.

COLDER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF ALBANY EARLY SUNDAY...OTHERWISE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. A
VERY COLD NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILD MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING IN VERY COLD
AIR. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT POSSIBLY WELL BELOW ZERO OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RATHER TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH AN INCREASE IN ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

MONDAY...
RECENT TRENDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.  RECENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THIS WAVE WILL TRACK CLOSER TO THE I70 CORRIDOR THAN THE I80
CORRIDOR.  THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST HANDLED THIS VERY WELL
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE POPS/WX.  THE 1025MB SURFACE HIGH
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWFA RATHER DRY WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED.  AS H850
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE -10C/-12C...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT...
CONSENSUS FAVORS A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN AS SUGGESTED BY
THE ECMWF/GGEM AS THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE UPPER PATTERN
THEREFORE SLOWER WITH THE EXIT OF THIS WAVE.  PER WPC GUIDANCE...WE
WILL KEEP OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DRY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.  AS SURFACE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND A CLEARING TREND EXPECTED...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE RATHER CHILLY WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS EXPECTED INTO THE
TERRAIN AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
AN ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE RIDGE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
RESULT A IN PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER AND A SLOW RETURN TO
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF JANUARY.  PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.

THURSDAY...
STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
EARLIER IN THE WEEK QUICKLY RACES ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AND
AMPLIFIES SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHER POPS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.  INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE WITH
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AS
THE STORM DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
SATURDAY. SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH AND IMPACT KPOU-KPSF FIRST WITH A
DROP TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. THEN THIS SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO KALB AROUND SUNRISE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. FOR
KGFL...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS THIS
LOCATION SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST FROM IMPACTS OF THIS
STORM. A PERIOD OF IFR IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING FROM KALB-
KPOU-KPSF WHEN THE GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

AS THIS STORM INTENSIFIES TO OUR EAST...THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
TO SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY VFR BTWN 22Z AND 00Z.

WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A TENDENCY TO BECOME
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
10KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE TO
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY SATURDAY NIGHT.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS AND RECENTLY HAS EXHIBITED A DECREASE IN GAGE
LEVELS /BELOW FLOOD STAGE/.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ061-064>066.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/11
HYDROLOGY...JPV







000
FXUS61 KALY 240509
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1209 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES WILL RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR`EASTER AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...TO SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR AREAS FROM MAINLY THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER LITCHFIELD COUNTY. ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EST...AFTER A REVIEW OF THE 00Z/NAM12 AND 00Z/01Z RAP
/USAF RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PERFORMED SEVERAL DROPSONDES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS THIS EVENING THAT WILL BENEFIT THE 00Z GUIDANCE./
     NO CHANGES TO CURRENT HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. HIGH AND SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH
MID LEVEL REFLECTIVITIES ON THE INCREASE.  LATEST 3HR ISALLOBARIC
PRESSURE DROPS WERE NOW TRANSFERRING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER.  DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE
HAS WEAKENED AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH WAS APPROACHING THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. PER THE
HRRR/RAP13...SNOW ARRIVAL TIME STILL LOOKS GOOD PER THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH JUST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.  IT SHOULD QUICKLY EXPAND
FURTHER NORTH OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AROUND
SUNRISE SATURDAY.  QPF FROM THE NAM/RAP HAS INCREASED A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES SO DID SLIGHTLY MODIFY UPWARD THE
SNOW AMOUNTS BUT NO CHANGES TO THE STORM TOTAL FORECAST.

WITH A QUICK CLEARING THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES RESPONDED AND HAVE
MODIFIED HOURLIES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES.  WITH
THE CLOUD COVER INCREASING...THESE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STEADY OFF.

PREV DISC..
UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EXPANDED TO EASTERN
COLUMBIA...NORTHERN BERKSHIRE AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR EASTERN ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY.

AS OF 430 PM EST...SKIES HAVE BECOME MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH THE
REGION EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN THIS
EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS A DEEPENING CYCLONE TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE CAROLINAS.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT...AS THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE DELMARVA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH SNOW BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290-295K SURFACE
INCREASES.

FORECAST MODELS...INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM HAVE ALL SHIFTED
THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE NORTH AND WEST FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
THIS TREND STARTED WITH LAST NIGHT/S 00Z ECMWF RUN...AND HAS
CONTINUED TODAY. A POSSIBLE REASON FOR THE SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO INCREASE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHICH IN TURN COULD CAUSE THE STORM TO TRACK CLOSER TO
THE COAST. WE HAVE ADJUSTED WINTER HEADLINES AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS EXPECTED SHIFT.

THIS STORM WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT DEEPENS CLOSE TO 24 MB
IN 24 HOURS FROM 06Z SATURDAY AROUND 996MB JUST OFF THE DELMARVA TO
06Z SUNDAY AROUND 963MB OVER NEW BRUNSWICK. FRONTOGENESIS ON THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO BANDING...ALTHOUGH AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOST OF THE STRONGEST FORCING AND HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS BANDING IS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH ONE INCH PER HOUR AT
TIMES YIELDING STORM TOTALS OF AROUND 5-9 INCHES. THERMAL PROFILES
HAVE TRENDED COLDER AS WELL...SO WILL JUST MENTION SOME SLEET
POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD FROM MID MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

TO THE NORTH AND WEST THERE WILL BE ENOUGH QPF WITHOUT BANDING TO
RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTY. ALSO INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR 1-3 INCHES
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE ADVISORY AREA. AREAS
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SHOULD SEE LITTLE IF
ANY SNOW. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
AMOUNTS WOULD INCREASE.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS FOR SUBSEQUENT CHANGES...AS
THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPMENTAL STAGES WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION AND MAY END UP SHIFTING THE TRACK FURTHER.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IT WILL LIKELY SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TACONICS TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THERE WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO FEATURE MUCH QUIETER
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED
TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO MAY
ACCUMULATE...AS THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE MOISTURE
THERE.

COLDER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF ALBANY EARLY SUNDAY...OTHERWISE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. A
VERY COLD NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILD MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING IN VERY COLD
AIR. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT POSSIBLY WELL BELOW ZERO OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RATHER TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH AN INCREASE IN ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

MONDAY...
RECENT TRENDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.  RECENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THIS WAVE WILL TRACK CLOSER TO THE I70 CORRIDOR THAN THE I80
CORRIDOR.  THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST HANDLED THIS VERY WELL
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE POPS/WX.  THE 1025MB SURFACE HIGH
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWFA RATHER DRY WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED.  AS H850
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE -10C/-12C...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT...
CONSENSUS FAVORS A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN AS SUGGESTED BY
THE ECMWF/GGEM AS THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE UPPER PATTERN
THEREFORE SLOWER WITH THE EXIT OF THIS WAVE.  PER WPC GUIDANCE...WE
WILL KEEP OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DRY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.  AS SURFACE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND A CLEARING TREND EXPECTED...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE RATHER CHILLY WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS EXPECTED INTO THE
TERRAIN AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
AN ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE RIDGE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
RESULT A IN PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER AND A SLOW RETURN TO
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF JANUARY.  PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS THE H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.

THURSDAY...
STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
EARLIER IN THE WEEK QUICKLY RACES ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AND
AMPLIFIES SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHER POPS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.  INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE WITH
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AS
THE STORM DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
SATURDAY. SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH AND IMPACT KPOU-KPSF FIRST WITH A
DROP TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. THEN THIS SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO KALB AROUND SUNRISE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. FOR
KGFL...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS THIS
LOCATION SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST FROM IMPACTS OF THIS
STORM. A PERIOD OF IFR IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING FROM KALB-
KPOU-KPSF WHEN THE GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

AS THIS STORM INTENSIFIES TO OUR EAST...THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
TO SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY VFR BTWN 22Z AND 00Z.

WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A TENDENCY TO BECOME
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
10KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE TO
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY SATURDAY NIGHT.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS AND RECENTLY HAS EXHIBITED A DECREASE IN GAGE
LEVELS /BELOW FLOOD STAGE/.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ061-064>066.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/11
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240456
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1156 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF WILL HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LIFTS NORTHEAST. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT ...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND A SMALL AREA OF STUBBORN CLOUDS JUST DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ERIE. FOR TONIGHT THE REGION WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THAT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING WAVE DROPPING
SOUTH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE LOW
20S.

SATURDAY STARTS OUT DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM BOTH THE SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE APPROACHING FRONT. SKIES WILL COMPLETELY
CLOUD UP BY AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW AS A
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH A HIGH WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 32.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND NEW
YORK STATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING NOR`EASTER SHIFTS
FROM THE GULF OF MAINE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE NOR`EASTER
WILL BE TOO FAR EAST FOR ANY IMPACTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK BUT THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER A RETURN TO MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. A
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF HAS BEEN FEATURED. THE QUICK PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT AND ARCTIC SOURCED AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
KEEP ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. ONLY THINKING AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 SATURDAY EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY MORNING SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT MAY BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS JUMP TOWARD 6KFT BUT SHOULD QUICKLY
BECOME SQUASHED AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SOME LAKE CLOUDS MAY LINGER BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH A SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WORKING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AHEAD OF CLIPPER LOW CROSSING THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC. OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS/ECMWF MODELS
SUGGEST THE ARCTIC HIGH JUST NORTH OF GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE
CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED SNOW SOUTH OF THE NY/PA LINE BUT A FEW SREF
MEMBERS INDICATE A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE LOCATIONS NEAR THE STATE LINE COULD PICK UP
A QUICK INCH. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 IN THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS AND WILL SLIDE INTO THE LOW TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR THE NORTH COUNTY.

ON MONDAY THE CLIPPER WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST WITH ANY
SOUTHERN TIER SNOW ENDING ENDING EARLY. OTHERWISE DRY ARCTIC AIR
WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR OUT FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TEENS MONDAY
THEN DROPPING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND TOWARD 10 BELOW EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. JUST 5-10 MPH OF WIND WOULD PUSH WIND CHILLS TOWARD
ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING LEVEL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED 500MB PATTERN FEATURING A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST AND
RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
ACROSS NEW YORK THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR EARLY IN
THE WEEK WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW OVER CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTH AND
MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS PHASING LOOKS TO DEPRESS THE WESTERN RIDGE PUSHING SOME HIGHER
HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD HELP BRING TEMPS BACK CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY MIDWEEK BUT THE FLOW WILL NOT BE LONG-LIVED ENOUGH TO
FOR OUR TEMPS TO REACH NORMAL LATE JANUARY LEVELS. GENERALLY EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME WEAK
LAKE ENHANCED FLURRIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO ON TUESDAY.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT MODELS SHIFT THE DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING TO DRY CONDITIONS.

FURTHER OUT...TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY...GFS/ECMWF 500MB
PATTERNS SHOW A BROAD DEEP TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES IN RESPONSE TO HIGH LATITUDE ARCTIC AIR SURGING
SOUTHWARD. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A RETURN TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS TO START FEBRUARY...COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
POSSIBLY RAMP BACK UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KBUF IS SEEING SOME THIN LOW CLOUD COVER AND MIST AT TIMES DUE TO
INCREASED MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE ERIE...AND THIS IS RESULTING IN VERY
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR BY
DAYBREAK AS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DEVELOP A LOW
STRATUS. EXPECT THIS DECK TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. BY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH REDUCTIONS
TO BOTH CIGS AND VIS. BY TONIGHT...EXPECT THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
COMMON...AND KJHW COULD SEE SOME LIFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL STRENGTHEN AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND WAVES BUILD. WINDS/WAVES WILL SUBSIDE DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

REMINDER...DUE TO INCREASING ICE COVERAGE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
PROGRAM FOR THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS AND NIAGARA RIVER HAS
BEEN SUSPENDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER SEASON... AND WILL
RESUME IN THE SPRING ONCE THE ICE MELTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...LEVAN








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240456
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1156 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF WILL HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LIFTS NORTHEAST. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT ...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND A SMALL AREA OF STUBBORN CLOUDS JUST DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ERIE. FOR TONIGHT THE REGION WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THAT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING WAVE DROPPING
SOUTH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE LOW
20S.

SATURDAY STARTS OUT DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM BOTH THE SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE APPROACHING FRONT. SKIES WILL COMPLETELY
CLOUD UP BY AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW AS A
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH A HIGH WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 32.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND NEW
YORK STATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING NOR`EASTER SHIFTS
FROM THE GULF OF MAINE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE NOR`EASTER
WILL BE TOO FAR EAST FOR ANY IMPACTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK BUT THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER A RETURN TO MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. A
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF HAS BEEN FEATURED. THE QUICK PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT AND ARCTIC SOURCED AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
KEEP ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. ONLY THINKING AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 SATURDAY EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY MORNING SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT MAY BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS JUMP TOWARD 6KFT BUT SHOULD QUICKLY
BECOME SQUASHED AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SOME LAKE CLOUDS MAY LINGER BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH A SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WORKING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AHEAD OF CLIPPER LOW CROSSING THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC. OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS/ECMWF MODELS
SUGGEST THE ARCTIC HIGH JUST NORTH OF GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE
CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED SNOW SOUTH OF THE NY/PA LINE BUT A FEW SREF
MEMBERS INDICATE A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE LOCATIONS NEAR THE STATE LINE COULD PICK UP
A QUICK INCH. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 IN THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS AND WILL SLIDE INTO THE LOW TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR THE NORTH COUNTY.

ON MONDAY THE CLIPPER WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST WITH ANY
SOUTHERN TIER SNOW ENDING ENDING EARLY. OTHERWISE DRY ARCTIC AIR
WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR OUT FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TEENS MONDAY
THEN DROPPING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND TOWARD 10 BELOW EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. JUST 5-10 MPH OF WIND WOULD PUSH WIND CHILLS TOWARD
ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING LEVEL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED 500MB PATTERN FEATURING A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST AND
RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
ACROSS NEW YORK THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR EARLY IN
THE WEEK WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW OVER CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTH AND
MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS PHASING LOOKS TO DEPRESS THE WESTERN RIDGE PUSHING SOME HIGHER
HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD HELP BRING TEMPS BACK CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY MIDWEEK BUT THE FLOW WILL NOT BE LONG-LIVED ENOUGH TO
FOR OUR TEMPS TO REACH NORMAL LATE JANUARY LEVELS. GENERALLY EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME WEAK
LAKE ENHANCED FLURRIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO ON TUESDAY.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT MODELS SHIFT THE DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING TO DRY CONDITIONS.

FURTHER OUT...TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY...GFS/ECMWF 500MB
PATTERNS SHOW A BROAD DEEP TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES IN RESPONSE TO HIGH LATITUDE ARCTIC AIR SURGING
SOUTHWARD. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A RETURN TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS TO START FEBRUARY...COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
POSSIBLY RAMP BACK UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KBUF IS SEEING SOME THIN LOW CLOUD COVER AND MIST AT TIMES DUE TO
INCREASED MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE ERIE...AND THIS IS RESULTING IN VERY
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR BY
DAYBREAK AS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DEVELOP A LOW
STRATUS. EXPECT THIS DECK TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. BY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH REDUCTIONS
TO BOTH CIGS AND VIS. BY TONIGHT...EXPECT THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
COMMON...AND KJHW COULD SEE SOME LIFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL STRENGTHEN AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND WAVES BUILD. WINDS/WAVES WILL SUBSIDE DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

REMINDER...DUE TO INCREASING ICE COVERAGE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
PROGRAM FOR THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS AND NIAGARA RIVER HAS
BEEN SUSPENDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER SEASON... AND WILL
RESUME IN THE SPRING ONCE THE ICE MELTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...LEVAN








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240456
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1156 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF WILL HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LIFTS NORTHEAST. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT ...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND A SMALL AREA OF STUBBORN CLOUDS JUST DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ERIE. FOR TONIGHT THE REGION WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THAT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING WAVE DROPPING
SOUTH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE LOW
20S.

SATURDAY STARTS OUT DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM BOTH THE SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE APPROACHING FRONT. SKIES WILL COMPLETELY
CLOUD UP BY AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW AS A
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH A HIGH WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 32.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND NEW
YORK STATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING NOR`EASTER SHIFTS
FROM THE GULF OF MAINE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE NOR`EASTER
WILL BE TOO FAR EAST FOR ANY IMPACTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK BUT THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER A RETURN TO MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. A
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF HAS BEEN FEATURED. THE QUICK PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT AND ARCTIC SOURCED AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
KEEP ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. ONLY THINKING AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 SATURDAY EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY MORNING SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT MAY BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS JUMP TOWARD 6KFT BUT SHOULD QUICKLY
BECOME SQUASHED AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SOME LAKE CLOUDS MAY LINGER BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH A SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WORKING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AHEAD OF CLIPPER LOW CROSSING THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC. OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS/ECMWF MODELS
SUGGEST THE ARCTIC HIGH JUST NORTH OF GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE
CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED SNOW SOUTH OF THE NY/PA LINE BUT A FEW SREF
MEMBERS INDICATE A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE LOCATIONS NEAR THE STATE LINE COULD PICK UP
A QUICK INCH. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 IN THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS AND WILL SLIDE INTO THE LOW TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR THE NORTH COUNTY.

ON MONDAY THE CLIPPER WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST WITH ANY
SOUTHERN TIER SNOW ENDING ENDING EARLY. OTHERWISE DRY ARCTIC AIR
WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR OUT FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TEENS MONDAY
THEN DROPPING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND TOWARD 10 BELOW EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. JUST 5-10 MPH OF WIND WOULD PUSH WIND CHILLS TOWARD
ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING LEVEL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED 500MB PATTERN FEATURING A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST AND
RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
ACROSS NEW YORK THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR EARLY IN
THE WEEK WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW OVER CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTH AND
MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS PHASING LOOKS TO DEPRESS THE WESTERN RIDGE PUSHING SOME HIGHER
HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD HELP BRING TEMPS BACK CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY MIDWEEK BUT THE FLOW WILL NOT BE LONG-LIVED ENOUGH TO
FOR OUR TEMPS TO REACH NORMAL LATE JANUARY LEVELS. GENERALLY EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME WEAK
LAKE ENHANCED FLURRIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO ON TUESDAY.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT MODELS SHIFT THE DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING TO DRY CONDITIONS.

FURTHER OUT...TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY...GFS/ECMWF 500MB
PATTERNS SHOW A BROAD DEEP TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES IN RESPONSE TO HIGH LATITUDE ARCTIC AIR SURGING
SOUTHWARD. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A RETURN TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS TO START FEBRUARY...COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
POSSIBLY RAMP BACK UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KBUF IS SEEING SOME THIN LOW CLOUD COVER AND MIST AT TIMES DUE TO
INCREASED MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE ERIE...AND THIS IS RESULTING IN VERY
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR BY
DAYBREAK AS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DEVELOP A LOW
STRATUS. EXPECT THIS DECK TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. BY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH REDUCTIONS
TO BOTH CIGS AND VIS. BY TONIGHT...EXPECT THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
COMMON...AND KJHW COULD SEE SOME LIFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL STRENGTHEN AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND WAVES BUILD. WINDS/WAVES WILL SUBSIDE DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

REMINDER...DUE TO INCREASING ICE COVERAGE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
PROGRAM FOR THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS AND NIAGARA RIVER HAS
BEEN SUSPENDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER SEASON... AND WILL
RESUME IN THE SPRING ONCE THE ICE MELTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...LEVAN








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240456
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1156 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF WILL HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LIFTS NORTHEAST. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT ...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND A SMALL AREA OF STUBBORN CLOUDS JUST DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ERIE. FOR TONIGHT THE REGION WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THAT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING WAVE DROPPING
SOUTH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE LOW
20S.

SATURDAY STARTS OUT DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM BOTH THE SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE APPROACHING FRONT. SKIES WILL COMPLETELY
CLOUD UP BY AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW AS A
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH A HIGH WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 32.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND NEW
YORK STATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING NOR`EASTER SHIFTS
FROM THE GULF OF MAINE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE NOR`EASTER
WILL BE TOO FAR EAST FOR ANY IMPACTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK BUT THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER A RETURN TO MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. A
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF HAS BEEN FEATURED. THE QUICK PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT AND ARCTIC SOURCED AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
KEEP ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. ONLY THINKING AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 SATURDAY EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY MORNING SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT MAY BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS JUMP TOWARD 6KFT BUT SHOULD QUICKLY
BECOME SQUASHED AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SOME LAKE CLOUDS MAY LINGER BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH A SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WORKING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AHEAD OF CLIPPER LOW CROSSING THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC. OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS/ECMWF MODELS
SUGGEST THE ARCTIC HIGH JUST NORTH OF GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE
CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED SNOW SOUTH OF THE NY/PA LINE BUT A FEW SREF
MEMBERS INDICATE A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE LOCATIONS NEAR THE STATE LINE COULD PICK UP
A QUICK INCH. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 IN THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS AND WILL SLIDE INTO THE LOW TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR THE NORTH COUNTY.

ON MONDAY THE CLIPPER WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST WITH ANY
SOUTHERN TIER SNOW ENDING ENDING EARLY. OTHERWISE DRY ARCTIC AIR
WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR OUT FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TEENS MONDAY
THEN DROPPING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND TOWARD 10 BELOW EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. JUST 5-10 MPH OF WIND WOULD PUSH WIND CHILLS TOWARD
ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING LEVEL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED 500MB PATTERN FEATURING A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST AND
RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
ACROSS NEW YORK THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR EARLY IN
THE WEEK WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW OVER CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTH AND
MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS PHASING LOOKS TO DEPRESS THE WESTERN RIDGE PUSHING SOME HIGHER
HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD HELP BRING TEMPS BACK CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY MIDWEEK BUT THE FLOW WILL NOT BE LONG-LIVED ENOUGH TO
FOR OUR TEMPS TO REACH NORMAL LATE JANUARY LEVELS. GENERALLY EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME WEAK
LAKE ENHANCED FLURRIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO ON TUESDAY.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT MODELS SHIFT THE DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING TO DRY CONDITIONS.

FURTHER OUT...TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY...GFS/ECMWF 500MB
PATTERNS SHOW A BROAD DEEP TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES IN RESPONSE TO HIGH LATITUDE ARCTIC AIR SURGING
SOUTHWARD. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A RETURN TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS TO START FEBRUARY...COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
POSSIBLY RAMP BACK UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KBUF IS SEEING SOME THIN LOW CLOUD COVER AND MIST AT TIMES DUE TO
INCREASED MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE ERIE...AND THIS IS RESULTING IN VERY
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR BY
DAYBREAK AS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DEVELOP A LOW
STRATUS. EXPECT THIS DECK TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. BY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH REDUCTIONS
TO BOTH CIGS AND VIS. BY TONIGHT...EXPECT THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
COMMON...AND KJHW COULD SEE SOME LIFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL STRENGTHEN AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND WAVES BUILD. WINDS/WAVES WILL SUBSIDE DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

REMINDER...DUE TO INCREASING ICE COVERAGE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
PROGRAM FOR THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS AND NIAGARA RIVER HAS
BEEN SUSPENDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER SEASON... AND WILL
RESUME IN THE SPRING ONCE THE ICE MELTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...LEVAN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 240304
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1004 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT ACROSS FOR SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE STORM WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON LEAVING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW HAS JUST MOVED INTO SOUTHERN PA DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ACTIVITY IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AS AIRMASS
ACROSS LOCAL AREA VERY DRY PER 00Z SOUNDINGS. BETTER JET DYNAMICS
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT WILL SPREAD THE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NE
PA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIP GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT DUE TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED AIRMASS AND FAST
MOVING WAVE. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR NEAR TERM
ADJUSTMENTS.

PREVIOUS DISC... SFC LOW DEEPENS OVRNGT AS IT TRACKS FROM ERN NC
TO WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA 12Z SAT. UPR STRUCTURE INCLUDES A
PROGRESSIVE OPEN WV AND DECENT JET STRUCTURE TO AID IN DEEPENING.
SYSTEM IS ABLE TO TAP THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF SO A PD OF
MOD SNOW SEEMS LIKELY OVER THE SE ZONES AHD OF THE UPR TROF.

TEMP PROFILE FVRBL FOR ALL SNOW FOR EVEN THE SRN MOST ZONES AND
LIFT WELL UP INTO THE DENDRITE ZONE...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNDG IS
ISOTHERMAL ABV -10C.

MODELS STILL ZEROING IN ON A SOLN BUT ATTM IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
THE NAM/SREFSTHE OUTLIER WITH NEAR WARNING CRITERIA SNOW EDGING
INTO THE SRN ZONES. GEM/EURO/GFS HAVE MUCH LWR AMTS AND KEEP AREA
IN THE ADVISORY. SRN WYOMING CNTY/S HIGHER TERRAIN AND ISSUE AND
WITH AMTS UP THERE EXCEEDING 4 INCHES HAVE ELECTED TO THROW THEM
IN THE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM CONTS TO MVE QUICKLY OUT DESPITE THE CONTD DEEPENING OF THE
UPR LOW. SNOW WILL END QUICKLY SAT AFT 15Z SAT AS THJE PCPN SHIELD
PULLS NE. NARROW RDG BHD THE LOW FLATTENS OUT SAT AFTN AND EARLY
SUN ALLOWING A NW FLOW OF CAA OFF THE LAKES. XPCT SCT SNOW SHWRS
TO BRK OUT LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN. SUN AFTN...RDGG ALREADY
BLDG AHD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER WITH DRIER AIR AND NE FLOW CUTTING
OFF LE. LATEST RUNS ARE PUSHING THE NEXT SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND
SNOW DVLPG SUN AFTN LOKS TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA.

TEMPS THRU THE SHRT TERM WILL BE NEAR NRML WITH GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE GUID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV TRENDED SOUTH FOR UPCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM SUN
NGT/MONDAY. STRONG 1025MB CANADIAN HIGH WL BUILD SOUTH AND SHUNT
SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. 12Z GFS, CMC AND EC TRACK IT CLOSE TO THE
PIEDMONT OF NC WITH 12Z NAM NOW GOING THRU THE HEART OF VA. H5 WV IS
STILL OFFSHORE AND WILL BE COMING INTO NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA
TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW HV LOWERED POPS FOR SUN NGT/MON WITH
SYSTEM NOW LOOKING TO BE A NEAR-MISS FOR CWA.

SFC HIGH WL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN CLDR AIR WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS
DROPPING DOWN TO NR 520DM. H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP BLO -10C WL
YIELD LOWS MON MRNG IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE TEENS ON MONDAY AS NRLY FLOW CONTS TO SUPPLY CLD AIR.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WL BE PRESENT OVR THE AREA STARTING MON
NGT AND HV DROPPED POPS TO SLGT CHC JUST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
NERLY FLOW WL BE PRESENT DRG THIS TIME WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA STARTING THUR MRNG.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SKIRT THE REGION TONIGHT, SPREADING LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 4Z AND 14Z. WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP, WITH TEMPO IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
AT BGM, AVP, AND ELM.

RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z, AS DRIER AIR POURS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT/SUN...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHWRS.

SUN NGT/MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW...STARTING LATE
SUN NGT ESPECIALLY AT AVP.

MON NGT/TUE...BECOMING VFR...THO OCNL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AT THE NY TERMINALS.

WED...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 240304
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1004 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT ACROSS FOR SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE STORM WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON LEAVING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW HAS JUST MOVED INTO SOUTHERN PA DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ACTIVITY IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AS AIRMASS
ACROSS LOCAL AREA VERY DRY PER 00Z SOUNDINGS. BETTER JET DYNAMICS
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT WILL SPREAD THE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NE
PA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIP GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT DUE TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED AIRMASS AND FAST
MOVING WAVE. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR NEAR TERM
ADJUSTMENTS.

PREVIOUS DISC... SFC LOW DEEPENS OVRNGT AS IT TRACKS FROM ERN NC
TO WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA 12Z SAT. UPR STRUCTURE INCLUDES A
PROGRESSIVE OPEN WV AND DECENT JET STRUCTURE TO AID IN DEEPENING.
SYSTEM IS ABLE TO TAP THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF SO A PD OF
MOD SNOW SEEMS LIKELY OVER THE SE ZONES AHD OF THE UPR TROF.

TEMP PROFILE FVRBL FOR ALL SNOW FOR EVEN THE SRN MOST ZONES AND
LIFT WELL UP INTO THE DENDRITE ZONE...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNDG IS
ISOTHERMAL ABV -10C.

MODELS STILL ZEROING IN ON A SOLN BUT ATTM IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
THE NAM/SREFSTHE OUTLIER WITH NEAR WARNING CRITERIA SNOW EDGING
INTO THE SRN ZONES. GEM/EURO/GFS HAVE MUCH LWR AMTS AND KEEP AREA
IN THE ADVISORY. SRN WYOMING CNTY/S HIGHER TERRAIN AND ISSUE AND
WITH AMTS UP THERE EXCEEDING 4 INCHES HAVE ELECTED TO THROW THEM
IN THE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM CONTS TO MVE QUICKLY OUT DESPITE THE CONTD DEEPENING OF THE
UPR LOW. SNOW WILL END QUICKLY SAT AFT 15Z SAT AS THJE PCPN SHIELD
PULLS NE. NARROW RDG BHD THE LOW FLATTENS OUT SAT AFTN AND EARLY
SUN ALLOWING A NW FLOW OF CAA OFF THE LAKES. XPCT SCT SNOW SHWRS
TO BRK OUT LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN. SUN AFTN...RDGG ALREADY
BLDG AHD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER WITH DRIER AIR AND NE FLOW CUTTING
OFF LE. LATEST RUNS ARE PUSHING THE NEXT SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND
SNOW DVLPG SUN AFTN LOKS TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA.

TEMPS THRU THE SHRT TERM WILL BE NEAR NRML WITH GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE GUID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV TRENDED SOUTH FOR UPCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM SUN
NGT/MONDAY. STRONG 1025MB CANADIAN HIGH WL BUILD SOUTH AND SHUNT
SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. 12Z GFS, CMC AND EC TRACK IT CLOSE TO THE
PIEDMONT OF NC WITH 12Z NAM NOW GOING THRU THE HEART OF VA. H5 WV IS
STILL OFFSHORE AND WILL BE COMING INTO NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA
TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW HV LOWERED POPS FOR SUN NGT/MON WITH
SYSTEM NOW LOOKING TO BE A NEAR-MISS FOR CWA.

SFC HIGH WL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN CLDR AIR WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS
DROPPING DOWN TO NR 520DM. H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP BLO -10C WL
YIELD LOWS MON MRNG IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE TEENS ON MONDAY AS NRLY FLOW CONTS TO SUPPLY CLD AIR.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WL BE PRESENT OVR THE AREA STARTING MON
NGT AND HV DROPPED POPS TO SLGT CHC JUST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
NERLY FLOW WL BE PRESENT DRG THIS TIME WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA STARTING THUR MRNG.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SKIRT THE REGION TONIGHT, SPREADING LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 4Z AND 14Z. WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP, WITH TEMPO IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
AT BGM, AVP, AND ELM.

RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z, AS DRIER AIR POURS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT/SUN...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHWRS.

SUN NGT/MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW...STARTING LATE
SUN NGT ESPECIALLY AT AVP.

MON NGT/TUE...BECOMING VFR...THO OCNL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AT THE NY TERMINALS.

WED...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 240304
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1004 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT ACROSS FOR SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE STORM WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON LEAVING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW HAS JUST MOVED INTO SOUTHERN PA DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ACTIVITY IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AS AIRMASS
ACROSS LOCAL AREA VERY DRY PER 00Z SOUNDINGS. BETTER JET DYNAMICS
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT WILL SPREAD THE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NE
PA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIP GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT DUE TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED AIRMASS AND FAST
MOVING WAVE. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR NEAR TERM
ADJUSTMENTS.

PREVIOUS DISC... SFC LOW DEEPENS OVRNGT AS IT TRACKS FROM ERN NC
TO WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA 12Z SAT. UPR STRUCTURE INCLUDES A
PROGRESSIVE OPEN WV AND DECENT JET STRUCTURE TO AID IN DEEPENING.
SYSTEM IS ABLE TO TAP THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF SO A PD OF
MOD SNOW SEEMS LIKELY OVER THE SE ZONES AHD OF THE UPR TROF.

TEMP PROFILE FVRBL FOR ALL SNOW FOR EVEN THE SRN MOST ZONES AND
LIFT WELL UP INTO THE DENDRITE ZONE...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNDG IS
ISOTHERMAL ABV -10C.

MODELS STILL ZEROING IN ON A SOLN BUT ATTM IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
THE NAM/SREFSTHE OUTLIER WITH NEAR WARNING CRITERIA SNOW EDGING
INTO THE SRN ZONES. GEM/EURO/GFS HAVE MUCH LWR AMTS AND KEEP AREA
IN THE ADVISORY. SRN WYOMING CNTY/S HIGHER TERRAIN AND ISSUE AND
WITH AMTS UP THERE EXCEEDING 4 INCHES HAVE ELECTED TO THROW THEM
IN THE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM CONTS TO MVE QUICKLY OUT DESPITE THE CONTD DEEPENING OF THE
UPR LOW. SNOW WILL END QUICKLY SAT AFT 15Z SAT AS THJE PCPN SHIELD
PULLS NE. NARROW RDG BHD THE LOW FLATTENS OUT SAT AFTN AND EARLY
SUN ALLOWING A NW FLOW OF CAA OFF THE LAKES. XPCT SCT SNOW SHWRS
TO BRK OUT LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN. SUN AFTN...RDGG ALREADY
BLDG AHD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER WITH DRIER AIR AND NE FLOW CUTTING
OFF LE. LATEST RUNS ARE PUSHING THE NEXT SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND
SNOW DVLPG SUN AFTN LOKS TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA.

TEMPS THRU THE SHRT TERM WILL BE NEAR NRML WITH GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE GUID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV TRENDED SOUTH FOR UPCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM SUN
NGT/MONDAY. STRONG 1025MB CANADIAN HIGH WL BUILD SOUTH AND SHUNT
SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. 12Z GFS, CMC AND EC TRACK IT CLOSE TO THE
PIEDMONT OF NC WITH 12Z NAM NOW GOING THRU THE HEART OF VA. H5 WV IS
STILL OFFSHORE AND WILL BE COMING INTO NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA
TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW HV LOWERED POPS FOR SUN NGT/MON WITH
SYSTEM NOW LOOKING TO BE A NEAR-MISS FOR CWA.

SFC HIGH WL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN CLDR AIR WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS
DROPPING DOWN TO NR 520DM. H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP BLO -10C WL
YIELD LOWS MON MRNG IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE TEENS ON MONDAY AS NRLY FLOW CONTS TO SUPPLY CLD AIR.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WL BE PRESENT OVR THE AREA STARTING MON
NGT AND HV DROPPED POPS TO SLGT CHC JUST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
NERLY FLOW WL BE PRESENT DRG THIS TIME WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA STARTING THUR MRNG.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SKIRT THE REGION TONIGHT, SPREADING LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 4Z AND 14Z. WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP, WITH TEMPO IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
AT BGM, AVP, AND ELM.

RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z, AS DRIER AIR POURS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT/SUN...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHWRS.

SUN NGT/MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW...STARTING LATE
SUN NGT ESPECIALLY AT AVP.

MON NGT/TUE...BECOMING VFR...THO OCNL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AT THE NY TERMINALS.

WED...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 240304
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1004 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT ACROSS FOR SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE STORM WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON LEAVING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW HAS JUST MOVED INTO SOUTHERN PA DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ACTIVITY IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AS AIRMASS
ACROSS LOCAL AREA VERY DRY PER 00Z SOUNDINGS. BETTER JET DYNAMICS
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT WILL SPREAD THE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NE
PA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIP GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT DUE TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED AIRMASS AND FAST
MOVING WAVE. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR NEAR TERM
ADJUSTMENTS.

PREVIOUS DISC... SFC LOW DEEPENS OVRNGT AS IT TRACKS FROM ERN NC
TO WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA 12Z SAT. UPR STRUCTURE INCLUDES A
PROGRESSIVE OPEN WV AND DECENT JET STRUCTURE TO AID IN DEEPENING.
SYSTEM IS ABLE TO TAP THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF SO A PD OF
MOD SNOW SEEMS LIKELY OVER THE SE ZONES AHD OF THE UPR TROF.

TEMP PROFILE FVRBL FOR ALL SNOW FOR EVEN THE SRN MOST ZONES AND
LIFT WELL UP INTO THE DENDRITE ZONE...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNDG IS
ISOTHERMAL ABV -10C.

MODELS STILL ZEROING IN ON A SOLN BUT ATTM IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
THE NAM/SREFSTHE OUTLIER WITH NEAR WARNING CRITERIA SNOW EDGING
INTO THE SRN ZONES. GEM/EURO/GFS HAVE MUCH LWR AMTS AND KEEP AREA
IN THE ADVISORY. SRN WYOMING CNTY/S HIGHER TERRAIN AND ISSUE AND
WITH AMTS UP THERE EXCEEDING 4 INCHES HAVE ELECTED TO THROW THEM
IN THE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM CONTS TO MVE QUICKLY OUT DESPITE THE CONTD DEEPENING OF THE
UPR LOW. SNOW WILL END QUICKLY SAT AFT 15Z SAT AS THJE PCPN SHIELD
PULLS NE. NARROW RDG BHD THE LOW FLATTENS OUT SAT AFTN AND EARLY
SUN ALLOWING A NW FLOW OF CAA OFF THE LAKES. XPCT SCT SNOW SHWRS
TO BRK OUT LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN. SUN AFTN...RDGG ALREADY
BLDG AHD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER WITH DRIER AIR AND NE FLOW CUTTING
OFF LE. LATEST RUNS ARE PUSHING THE NEXT SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND
SNOW DVLPG SUN AFTN LOKS TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA.

TEMPS THRU THE SHRT TERM WILL BE NEAR NRML WITH GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE GUID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV TRENDED SOUTH FOR UPCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM SUN
NGT/MONDAY. STRONG 1025MB CANADIAN HIGH WL BUILD SOUTH AND SHUNT
SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. 12Z GFS, CMC AND EC TRACK IT CLOSE TO THE
PIEDMONT OF NC WITH 12Z NAM NOW GOING THRU THE HEART OF VA. H5 WV IS
STILL OFFSHORE AND WILL BE COMING INTO NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA
TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW HV LOWERED POPS FOR SUN NGT/MON WITH
SYSTEM NOW LOOKING TO BE A NEAR-MISS FOR CWA.

SFC HIGH WL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN CLDR AIR WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS
DROPPING DOWN TO NR 520DM. H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP BLO -10C WL
YIELD LOWS MON MRNG IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE TEENS ON MONDAY AS NRLY FLOW CONTS TO SUPPLY CLD AIR.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WL BE PRESENT OVR THE AREA STARTING MON
NGT AND HV DROPPED POPS TO SLGT CHC JUST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
NERLY FLOW WL BE PRESENT DRG THIS TIME WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LK
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA STARTING THUR MRNG.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SKIRT THE REGION TONIGHT, SPREADING LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 4Z AND 14Z. WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP, WITH TEMPO IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
AT BGM, AVP, AND ELM.

RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z, AS DRIER AIR POURS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT/SUN...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHWRS.

SUN NGT/MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW...STARTING LATE
SUN NGT ESPECIALLY AT AVP.

MON NGT/TUE...BECOMING VFR...THO OCNL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AT THE NY TERMINALS.

WED...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBTV 240259
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
959 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A COASTAL LOW ON SATURDAY,
RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT FROM
THE COASTAL LOW AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK
INTO EASTERN VERMONT LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION,
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 948 PM EST FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST STILL LOOKING GOOD. WITH
LATEST UPDATE...MADE JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
PARAMETERS FOR TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA
AT THIS TIME...WITH MORE CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THIS SCENARIO THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AREAS
SHOULD DECREASE AND LIFT NORTH...WHILE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
COASTAL LOW MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AREAS. ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP
SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS...BUT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT 20 TO 25 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH BRINGING CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FROM TIME TO TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S WITH WARMEST AREAS BEING IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWEST TO ERODE
DUE TO PROXIMITY TO APPROACHING CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE. MORE CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW. BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM EITHER SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...A TALE OF TWO LOW PRESSURES - AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY GETS SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THEM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH, REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA ON
SATURDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN LITTLE IMPACT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH AND WEST, WHICH WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW
TO INFILTRATE RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES SATURDAY
MORNING...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AS FOR THE
NORTHERN LOW, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN NY MAINLY IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL BE SHIFTING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY AND OVERNIGHT, HELPING TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. ALSO IN THIS NW FLOW, LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND PRONOUNCED
COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
RESULTING IN NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. WITH 925 MB AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO ABOUT -20C, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
EARLY IN THE DAY AND ONLY BE IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S
SOUTH. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE FILTERING IN ON THE NW FLOW, WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NO PRECIPITATION. AS TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS
COMES TO AN END, EXPECT STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR
LESS, THOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SETTLES IN. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO, RANGING FROM
-12F TO -2F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EST FRIDAY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO MAJOR WINTER STORMS
EXPECTED...AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY...BUT THIS LOW WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AS A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE REGION WILL COME UNDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST
FROM CANADA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP LATER ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR (EXCEPTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AT MSS) TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
CONTINUE PARTICULARLY AT MSS AND BTV, THOUGH STRONGEST AT MSS DUE
TO LOW/ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT PASSING TO NORTH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WILL SEE SOME AREAS OF LLWS TONIGHT IN AREAS WHERE
SOUTHWEST FLOW SLACKENS, THOUGH FEEL BEST CHANCE OF THAT AT SLK.
DISTANT COASTAL SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY WILL ONLY HAVE FRINGE EFFECTS
ON THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE. ANY LIGHT SNOW LIMITED TO RUT AFTER 14Z BUT
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS BUT WITH SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR
MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 240259
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
959 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A COASTAL LOW ON SATURDAY,
RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT FROM
THE COASTAL LOW AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK
INTO EASTERN VERMONT LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION,
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 948 PM EST FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST STILL LOOKING GOOD. WITH
LATEST UPDATE...MADE JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
PARAMETERS FOR TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA
AT THIS TIME...WITH MORE CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THIS SCENARIO THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AREAS
SHOULD DECREASE AND LIFT NORTH...WHILE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
COASTAL LOW MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AREAS. ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP
SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS...BUT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT 20 TO 25 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH BRINGING CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
FROM TIME TO TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S WITH WARMEST AREAS BEING IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWEST TO ERODE
DUE TO PROXIMITY TO APPROACHING CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE. MORE CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW. BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM EITHER SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...A TALE OF TWO LOW PRESSURES - AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY GETS SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THEM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH, REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA ON
SATURDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO RESULT IN LITTLE IMPACT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH AND WEST, WHICH WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW
TO INFILTRATE RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES SATURDAY
MORNING...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AS FOR THE
NORTHERN LOW, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN NY MAINLY IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL BE SHIFTING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY AND OVERNIGHT, HELPING TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. ALSO IN THIS NW FLOW, LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND PRONOUNCED
COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
RESULTING IN NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. WITH 925 MB AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO ABOUT -20C, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
EARLY IN THE DAY AND ONLY BE IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S
SOUTH. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE FILTERING IN ON THE NW FLOW, WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NO PRECIPITATION. AS TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS
COMES TO AN END, EXPECT STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR
LESS, THOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SETTLES IN. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO, RANGING FROM
-12F TO -2F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EST FRIDAY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO MAJOR WINTER STORMS
EXPECTED...AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY...BUT THIS LOW WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AS A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE REGION WILL COME UNDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST
FROM CANADA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP LATER ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR (EXCEPTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AT MSS) TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
CONTINUE PARTICULARLY AT MSS AND BTV, THOUGH STRONGEST AT MSS DUE
TO LOW/ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT PASSING TO NORTH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WILL SEE SOME AREAS OF LLWS TONIGHT IN AREAS WHERE
SOUTHWEST FLOW SLACKENS, THOUGH FEEL BEST CHANCE OF THAT AT SLK.
DISTANT COASTAL SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY WILL ONLY HAVE FRINGE EFFECTS
ON THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE. ANY LIGHT SNOW LIMITED TO RUT AFTER 14Z BUT
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS BUT WITH SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR
MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH



000
FXUS61 KALY 240236
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
935 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES WILL RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR`EASTER AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...TO SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR AREAS FROM MAINLY THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER LITCHFIELD COUNTY. ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EST...AFTER A REVIEW OF THE 00Z/NAM12 AND 00Z/01Z RAP
/USAF RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PERFORMED SEVERAL DROPSONDES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS THIS EVENING THAT WILL BENEFIT THE 00Z GUIDANCE./
...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. HIGH AND SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH
MID LEVEL REFLECTIVITIES ON THE INCREASE.  LATEST 3HR ISALLOBARIC
PRESSURE DROPS WERE NOW TRANSFERRING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER.  DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE
HAS WEAKENED AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH WAS APPROACHING THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. PER THE
HRRR/RAP13...SNOW ARRIVAL TIME STILL LOOKS GOOD PER THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH JUST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.  IT SHOULD QUICKLY EXPAND
FURTHER NORTH OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AROUND
SUNRISE SATURDAY.  QPF FROM THE NAM/RAP HAS INCREASED A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES SO DID SLIGHTLY MODIFY UPWARD THE
SNOW AMOUNTS BUT NO CHANGES TO THE STORM TOTAL FORECAST.

WITH A QUICK CLEARING THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES RESPONDED AND HAVE
MODIFIED HOURLIES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES.  WITH
THE CLOUD COVER INCREASING...THESE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STEADY OFF.

PREV DISC..
UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EXPANDED TO EASTERN
COLUMBIA...NORTHERN BERKSHIRE AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR EASTERN ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY.

AS OF 430 PM EST...SKIES HAVE BECOME MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH THE
REGION EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN THIS
EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS A DEEPENING CYCLONE TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE CAROLINAS.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT...AS THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE DELMARVA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH SNOW BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290-295K SURFACE
INCREASES.

FORECAST MODELS...INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM HAVE ALL SHIFTED
THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE NORTH AND WEST FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
THIS TREND STARTED WITH LAST NIGHT/S 00Z ECMWF RUN...AND HAS
CONTINUED TODAY. A POSSIBLE REASON FOR THE SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO INCREASE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHICH IN TURN COULD CAUSE THE STORM TO TRACK CLOSER TO
THE COAST. WE HAVE ADJUSTED WINTER HEADLINES AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS EXPECTED SHIFT.

THIS STORM WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT DEEPENS CLOSE TO 24 MB
IN 24 HOURS FROM 06Z SATURDAY AROUND 996MB JUST OFF THE DELMARVA TO
06Z SUNDAY AROUND 963MB OVER NEW BRUNSWICK. FRONTOGENESIS ON THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO BANDING...ALTHOUGH AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOST OF THE STRONGEST FORCING AND HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS BANDING IS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH ONE INCH PER HOUR AT
TIMES YIELDING STORM TOTALS OF AROUND 5-9 INCHES. THERMAL PROFILES
HAVE TRENDED COLDER AS WELL...SO WILL JUST MENTION SOME SLEET
POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD FROM MID MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

TO THE NORTH AND WEST THERE WILL BE ENOUGH QPF WITHOUT BANDING TO
RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTY. ALSO INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR 1-3 INCHES
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE ADVISORY AREA. AREAS
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SHOULD SEE LITTLE IF
ANY SNOW. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
AMOUNTS WOULD INCREASE.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS FOR SUBSEQUENT CHANGES...AS
THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPMENTAL STAGES WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION AND MAY END UP SHIFTING THE TRACK FURTHER.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IT WILL LIKELY SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TACONICS TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THERE WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO FEATURE MUCH QUIETER
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED
TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO MAY
ACCUMULATE...AS THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE MOISTURE
THERE.

COLDER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF ALBANY EARLY SUNDAY...OTHERWISE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. A
VERY COLD NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILD MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING IN VERY COLD
AIR. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT POSSIBLY WELL BELOW ZERO OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RATHER TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH AN INCREASE IN ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

MONDAY...
RECENT TRENDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.  RECENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THIS WAVE WILL TRACK CLOSER TO THE I70 CORRIDOR THAN THE I80
CORRIDOR.  THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST HANDLED THIS VERY WELL
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE POPS/WX.  THE 1025MB SURFACE HIGH
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWFA RATHER DRY WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED.  AS H850
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE -10C/-12C...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT...
CONSENSUS FAVORS A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN AS SUGGESTED BY
THE ECMWF/GGEM AS THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE UPPER PATTERN
THEREFORE SLOWER WITH THE EXIT OF THIS WAVE.  PER WPC GUIDANCE...WE
WILL KEEP OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DRY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.  AS SURFACE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND A CLEARING TREND EXPECTED...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE RATHER CHILLY WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS EXPECTED INTO THE
TERRAIN AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
AN ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE RIDGE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
RESULT