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000
FXUS61 KBUF 280149
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
849 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW
MOVING INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER STORM WILL APPROACH ON THE HEELS
OF THE SUNDAY STORM AND BRING A POTENTIAL FOR AN ICY MIX AND
STRONG WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SETTLE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND ORIENTED OVER
WATERTOWN THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH 05Z PER
NAM/GFS BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS IT SETTLES OVER THE TUG HILL REGION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
WEAKENING SNOWFALL RATES. IN THE MEAN TIME...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM
WATERTOWN AND ACROSS SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY / NORTHERN TUG HILL
COULD PUSH 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IN THE MOST
PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING
ABOUT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
NUMBERS ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS
INLAND AND NEAR MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER. WIND CHILLS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A WIDESPREAD PROBLEM OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS NOT
MEETING THE 5 MPH CRITERIA FOR ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NEW MONTH OF MARCH...AND METEOROLOGICAL START OF SPRING...WILL
OPEN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AS A WINTER STORM
DEVELOPS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TRACKS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR. A LARGE PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
BE TRANSPORTED OVER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A
SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORCING WILL ONLY INITIALLY BE ISENTROPIC WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT EARLIER SUNDAY THEN FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A BROAD 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT VORT MAX ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN 850MB JET WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FALL. 12Z MODELS DO SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE NAM/ECMWF/CMC BRINGING SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY 12Z SUN AND THE GFS HOLDING BACK SNOW
TIL AFTER 18Z SUN AND SREF AS EARLY AS 9Z. THE SUITE OF MODEL QPF
HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH A QUARTER TO HALF
INCH OF QPF. WARMER PROFILES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD HOLD
SNOW RATIOS DOWN TO AN AVERAGE OF 12:1 DURING MUCH OF THE EVENT
UNTIL COLDER AIR CIRCULATES IN BEHIND THE SURFACE WAVE LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE ALL COUNTIES SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...THE SOUTHERN TIER HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF 6 OF MORE
INCHES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
FORCING CONTRIBUTED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH COVERING THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL CLIMB TOWARD 30 THEN ONLY SLIP INTO THE 20S
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW AND CLOUD COVER. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
DEFORMATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW ON MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE CHANCES OF SOME LIMITED SNOW TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM TOWARD THE UPPER 20S EARLY THEN FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE STORM.
PACIFIC BASED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND
THE DEPARTING STORM WITH CLEARING SKIES GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD ADVECTION...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE A RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 10.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JUST AS WE ARE FINISHED CLEARING THE DRIVEWAYS AND SIDEWALKS FROM
SUNDAYS STORM...ANOTHER STRONGER AND WARMER STORM WILL QUICKLY
APPROACH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR AN ICY MIX
FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WITH
ATTENDANT VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A FULL
LATITUDE WESTERN STATES TROUGH TUESDAY TRIGGERING A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

WHILE SNOW LOOKS TO BEGIN ARRIVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OVERRIDE COLDER SUB-FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT PRODUCING A WARM NOSE
IN VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SNOW TO CHANGE
TO AN ICY MIX OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SECTIONS POSSIBLY EVEN GOING OVER
TO PLAIN RAIN AS TEMPERATURES PUSH TOWARD 40 DEGREES.

THE MATURE LOW WILL SHIFT JUST NORTHWEST OF WESTERN NEW YORK ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE
TRAILING STRONG WINDS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF PLAIN RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE RAIN WILL
MIX WITH SNOW AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST. THE TRACK OF THIS DEEPENING
LOW CUTTING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRONG
WINDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE
FALL-RISE COUPLET CROSSING DIRECTLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK INDICATING THE START OF THE DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN THE COMING
DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED HIGH WORKING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL STATES. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY DRY WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHERWISE VFR AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...BECOMING WINDY. MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH
SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
REGIONS.

THE COLD WEATHER HAS CAUSED CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. OUTSIDE OF FAST FLOWING
AREAS...VIRTUALLY ALL THE CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE FROZEN WITH A VERY
THICK ICE PACK IN PLACE. ICE EXCEEDS A FOOT IN MANY SLOW FLOWING
AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST AND NORTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PATH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA...POSSIBLY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. AT THIS
TIME...AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN MAY CAUSE
CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP AND POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  46.2        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  45.2        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
                29 DAYS         FEB 27 2015
                28 DAYS         JAN 12 1881


--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

            10      1979
             9      2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)


THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 19 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

            19      2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)
            16      1978

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
MARINE...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
HYDROLOGY...FRANKLIN
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 280149
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
849 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW
MOVING INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER STORM WILL APPROACH ON THE HEELS
OF THE SUNDAY STORM AND BRING A POTENTIAL FOR AN ICY MIX AND
STRONG WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SETTLE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND ORIENTED OVER
WATERTOWN THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH 05Z PER
NAM/GFS BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS IT SETTLES OVER THE TUG HILL REGION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
WEAKENING SNOWFALL RATES. IN THE MEAN TIME...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM
WATERTOWN AND ACROSS SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY / NORTHERN TUG HILL
COULD PUSH 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IN THE MOST
PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING
ABOUT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
NUMBERS ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS
INLAND AND NEAR MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER. WIND CHILLS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A WIDESPREAD PROBLEM OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS NOT
MEETING THE 5 MPH CRITERIA FOR ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NEW MONTH OF MARCH...AND METEOROLOGICAL START OF SPRING...WILL
OPEN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AS A WINTER STORM
DEVELOPS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TRACKS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR. A LARGE PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
BE TRANSPORTED OVER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A
SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORCING WILL ONLY INITIALLY BE ISENTROPIC WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT EARLIER SUNDAY THEN FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A BROAD 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT VORT MAX ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN 850MB JET WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FALL. 12Z MODELS DO SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE NAM/ECMWF/CMC BRINGING SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY 12Z SUN AND THE GFS HOLDING BACK SNOW
TIL AFTER 18Z SUN AND SREF AS EARLY AS 9Z. THE SUITE OF MODEL QPF
HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH A QUARTER TO HALF
INCH OF QPF. WARMER PROFILES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD HOLD
SNOW RATIOS DOWN TO AN AVERAGE OF 12:1 DURING MUCH OF THE EVENT
UNTIL COLDER AIR CIRCULATES IN BEHIND THE SURFACE WAVE LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE ALL COUNTIES SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...THE SOUTHERN TIER HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF 6 OF MORE
INCHES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
FORCING CONTRIBUTED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH COVERING THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL CLIMB TOWARD 30 THEN ONLY SLIP INTO THE 20S
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW AND CLOUD COVER. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
DEFORMATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW ON MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE CHANCES OF SOME LIMITED SNOW TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM TOWARD THE UPPER 20S EARLY THEN FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE STORM.
PACIFIC BASED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND
THE DEPARTING STORM WITH CLEARING SKIES GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD ADVECTION...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE A RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 10.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JUST AS WE ARE FINISHED CLEARING THE DRIVEWAYS AND SIDEWALKS FROM
SUNDAYS STORM...ANOTHER STRONGER AND WARMER STORM WILL QUICKLY
APPROACH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR AN ICY MIX
FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WITH
ATTENDANT VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A FULL
LATITUDE WESTERN STATES TROUGH TUESDAY TRIGGERING A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

WHILE SNOW LOOKS TO BEGIN ARRIVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OVERRIDE COLDER SUB-FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT PRODUCING A WARM NOSE
IN VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SNOW TO CHANGE
TO AN ICY MIX OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SECTIONS POSSIBLY EVEN GOING OVER
TO PLAIN RAIN AS TEMPERATURES PUSH TOWARD 40 DEGREES.

THE MATURE LOW WILL SHIFT JUST NORTHWEST OF WESTERN NEW YORK ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE
TRAILING STRONG WINDS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF PLAIN RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE RAIN WILL
MIX WITH SNOW AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST. THE TRACK OF THIS DEEPENING
LOW CUTTING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRONG
WINDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE
FALL-RISE COUPLET CROSSING DIRECTLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK INDICATING THE START OF THE DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN THE COMING
DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED HIGH WORKING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL STATES. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY DRY WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHERWISE VFR AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...BECOMING WINDY. MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH
SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
REGIONS.

THE COLD WEATHER HAS CAUSED CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. OUTSIDE OF FAST FLOWING
AREAS...VIRTUALLY ALL THE CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE FROZEN WITH A VERY
THICK ICE PACK IN PLACE. ICE EXCEEDS A FOOT IN MANY SLOW FLOWING
AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST AND NORTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PATH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA...POSSIBLY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. AT THIS
TIME...AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN MAY CAUSE
CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP AND POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  46.2        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  45.2        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
                29 DAYS         FEB 27 2015
                28 DAYS         JAN 12 1881


--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

            10      1979
             9      2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)


THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 19 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

            19      2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)
            16      1978

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
MARINE...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
HYDROLOGY...FRANKLIN
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 280149
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
849 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW
MOVING INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER STORM WILL APPROACH ON THE HEELS
OF THE SUNDAY STORM AND BRING A POTENTIAL FOR AN ICY MIX AND
STRONG WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SETTLE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND ORIENTED OVER
WATERTOWN THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH 05Z PER
NAM/GFS BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS IT SETTLES OVER THE TUG HILL REGION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
WEAKENING SNOWFALL RATES. IN THE MEAN TIME...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM
WATERTOWN AND ACROSS SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY / NORTHERN TUG HILL
COULD PUSH 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IN THE MOST
PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING
ABOUT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
NUMBERS ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS
INLAND AND NEAR MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER. WIND CHILLS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A WIDESPREAD PROBLEM OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS NOT
MEETING THE 5 MPH CRITERIA FOR ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NEW MONTH OF MARCH...AND METEOROLOGICAL START OF SPRING...WILL
OPEN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AS A WINTER STORM
DEVELOPS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TRACKS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR. A LARGE PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
BE TRANSPORTED OVER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A
SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORCING WILL ONLY INITIALLY BE ISENTROPIC WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT EARLIER SUNDAY THEN FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A BROAD 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT VORT MAX ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN 850MB JET WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FALL. 12Z MODELS DO SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE NAM/ECMWF/CMC BRINGING SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY 12Z SUN AND THE GFS HOLDING BACK SNOW
TIL AFTER 18Z SUN AND SREF AS EARLY AS 9Z. THE SUITE OF MODEL QPF
HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH A QUARTER TO HALF
INCH OF QPF. WARMER PROFILES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD HOLD
SNOW RATIOS DOWN TO AN AVERAGE OF 12:1 DURING MUCH OF THE EVENT
UNTIL COLDER AIR CIRCULATES IN BEHIND THE SURFACE WAVE LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE ALL COUNTIES SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...THE SOUTHERN TIER HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF 6 OF MORE
INCHES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
FORCING CONTRIBUTED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH COVERING THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL CLIMB TOWARD 30 THEN ONLY SLIP INTO THE 20S
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW AND CLOUD COVER. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
DEFORMATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW ON MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE CHANCES OF SOME LIMITED SNOW TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM TOWARD THE UPPER 20S EARLY THEN FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE STORM.
PACIFIC BASED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND
THE DEPARTING STORM WITH CLEARING SKIES GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD ADVECTION...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE A RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 10.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JUST AS WE ARE FINISHED CLEARING THE DRIVEWAYS AND SIDEWALKS FROM
SUNDAYS STORM...ANOTHER STRONGER AND WARMER STORM WILL QUICKLY
APPROACH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR AN ICY MIX
FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WITH
ATTENDANT VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A FULL
LATITUDE WESTERN STATES TROUGH TUESDAY TRIGGERING A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

WHILE SNOW LOOKS TO BEGIN ARRIVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OVERRIDE COLDER SUB-FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT PRODUCING A WARM NOSE
IN VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SNOW TO CHANGE
TO AN ICY MIX OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SECTIONS POSSIBLY EVEN GOING OVER
TO PLAIN RAIN AS TEMPERATURES PUSH TOWARD 40 DEGREES.

THE MATURE LOW WILL SHIFT JUST NORTHWEST OF WESTERN NEW YORK ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE
TRAILING STRONG WINDS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF PLAIN RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE RAIN WILL
MIX WITH SNOW AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST. THE TRACK OF THIS DEEPENING
LOW CUTTING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRONG
WINDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE
FALL-RISE COUPLET CROSSING DIRECTLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK INDICATING THE START OF THE DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN THE COMING
DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED HIGH WORKING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL STATES. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY DRY WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHERWISE VFR AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...BECOMING WINDY. MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH
SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
REGIONS.

THE COLD WEATHER HAS CAUSED CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. OUTSIDE OF FAST FLOWING
AREAS...VIRTUALLY ALL THE CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE FROZEN WITH A VERY
THICK ICE PACK IN PLACE. ICE EXCEEDS A FOOT IN MANY SLOW FLOWING
AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST AND NORTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PATH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA...POSSIBLY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. AT THIS
TIME...AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN MAY CAUSE
CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP AND POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  46.2        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  45.2        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
                29 DAYS         FEB 27 2015
                28 DAYS         JAN 12 1881


--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

            10      1979
             9      2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)


THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 19 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

            19      2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)
            16      1978

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
MARINE...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
HYDROLOGY...FRANKLIN
CLIMATE...THOMAS







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBGM 280110
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
810 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD DRY WEATHER
TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
810 PM UPDATE...
EDGED THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS UP A FEW DEGREES
OVERNIGHT. LATEST OBS ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
PLAN, AND WHILE I EXPECT THE BOTTOM WILL DROP OUT ON THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE SOUNDING OVERNIGHT, I BELIEVE A COMBINATION OF THE
HRRR AND LAMP GUIDANCE PRODUCES A GOOD PROG FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY.

4 PM UPDATE...
BAND OF CLOUDS PERSISTS OVER THE SYRACUSE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES AT TIMES... WHILE ANOTHER BAND IS
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO. BOTH OF THESE BANDS SHOULD
WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST
TOWARD NY AND PENNSYLVANIA. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. NOTICED
THAT TEMPERATURES NEAR THE NORTHEAST RIM OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER
MICHIGAN WERE QUITE COLD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD ZERO
TO -20 READINGS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THAT STATE. MOS GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING LOWS NEAR ZERO TONIGHT... BIT OUR CURRENT FORECAST
IS COLDER AND BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS BELIEVE THAT THE COLDER
FORECAST IS PROBABLY BETTER. HAVE BASICALLY KEPT THE CURRENT
FORECAST GOING FOR READINGS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM NEAR OR JUST
BELOW ZERO IN WARMER AREAS... TO AS LOW AS -10 TO -15 IN NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT... WITH WIND CHILLS
BASICALLY RUNNING ABOUT THE SAME AS THE TEMPERATURE.

SATURDAY WILL BE A SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE
AREA. AFTER A VERY COLD START TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY RISE TO
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY... WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT SOME CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT EXPECT LOWEST TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE EAST WITH WIDESPREAD BELOW READINGS.
IN THE WEST TEMPERATURES MAY FALL TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE ZERO IN
THE EVENING... THEN LEVEL OUT OR MAYBE EVEN RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS NY
AND PA LATER SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY... WITH SNOW PROBABLY DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND`S EVENT... AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SIMILAR SNOW AMOUNTS... WITH MAXIMUM VALUES IN
THE SYRACUSE AREA EAST TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND SMALLEST AMOUNTS NORTHEAST OF HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY WHERE SW FLOW MAY
DOWNSLOPE OFF OF THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT THIS PATTERN AND GIVEN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL TIMES
THIS YEAR AND PARTICULARLY LAST WEEKEND WE ARE INCLINED TO BELIEVE
THIS SCENARIO.  BASICALLY EXPECTING A 2 TO 5 INCH SNOW EVENT FOR
MOST AREAS... WITH AGAIN LOWEST AMOUNTS NORTHEAST OF HIGHER
TERRAIN AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND POSSIBLY
SYRACUSE.

STEADIER SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BACK DOWN TO
AROUND -15 SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON SO SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE. WITH
THE FLOW FROM 300-310 DEGREES EXPECTING MULTIBANDS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. WITH A SHORT FETCH AND ICE COVER OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
ONTARIO EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE
SYRACUSE AREA SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THROUGH THE EASTERN FINGER
LAKES AREA... WITH UP TO A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES TRANSITORY.
POTENT STORM FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION TYPES LIKELY. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. AGAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE...BUT AVERAGE IS ABOVE FREEZING NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AM BEFORE THE STORM MOVES NE.
RIDGING ALOFT WITH WAA AT MID LEVELS. OVERRUNNING PRECIP STARTS AS
SNOW TUESDAY AFTN AND EVE. THE GFS IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS FASTER
THAN THE EURO. TUESDAY OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS GO ABOVE 0C SO
CHANGEOVER TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN. WARM AIR HEADS TO SURFACE
WEDNESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN EVERYWHERE. THE STORM
TRACK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST 2 OR 3 DAYS. MOVING NE INTO SE
ONTARIO WED AM. COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH WED PM CHANGING THE PRECIP
TO SNOW.

CAA THU NGT AND FRIDAY SO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY SO DRYING ESPECIALLY NE PA. GFS
AND EURO AGREE ON A WEAK CLIPPER MOVING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA
FRIDAY NGT WHICH MAY BRUSH THE NY ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCANT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IN VICINITY
OF KSYR-KRME BUT STILL VFR. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES KRME LATER THIS EVENING...BUT WITH IT BEING JUST A
POSSIBILITY AND NOT A LIKELIHOOD...I HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE
TAF /EVEN IF IT OCCURS...MINOR IF ANY RESTRICTION WOULD RESULT/.
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT W OR
NW DAYTIME HOURS OF SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT TO RAIN WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...HEDEN/TAC
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 280110
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
810 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD DRY WEATHER
TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
810 PM UPDATE...
EDGED THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS UP A FEW DEGREES
OVERNIGHT. LATEST OBS ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
PLAN, AND WHILE I EXPECT THE BOTTOM WILL DROP OUT ON THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE SOUNDING OVERNIGHT, I BELIEVE A COMBINATION OF THE
HRRR AND LAMP GUIDANCE PRODUCES A GOOD PROG FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY.

4 PM UPDATE...
BAND OF CLOUDS PERSISTS OVER THE SYRACUSE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES AT TIMES... WHILE ANOTHER BAND IS
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO. BOTH OF THESE BANDS SHOULD
WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST
TOWARD NY AND PENNSYLVANIA. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. NOTICED
THAT TEMPERATURES NEAR THE NORTHEAST RIM OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER
MICHIGAN WERE QUITE COLD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD ZERO
TO -20 READINGS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THAT STATE. MOS GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING LOWS NEAR ZERO TONIGHT... BIT OUR CURRENT FORECAST
IS COLDER AND BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS BELIEVE THAT THE COLDER
FORECAST IS PROBABLY BETTER. HAVE BASICALLY KEPT THE CURRENT
FORECAST GOING FOR READINGS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM NEAR OR JUST
BELOW ZERO IN WARMER AREAS... TO AS LOW AS -10 TO -15 IN NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT... WITH WIND CHILLS
BASICALLY RUNNING ABOUT THE SAME AS THE TEMPERATURE.

SATURDAY WILL BE A SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE
AREA. AFTER A VERY COLD START TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY RISE TO
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY... WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT SOME CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT EXPECT LOWEST TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE EAST WITH WIDESPREAD BELOW READINGS.
IN THE WEST TEMPERATURES MAY FALL TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE ZERO IN
THE EVENING... THEN LEVEL OUT OR MAYBE EVEN RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS NY
AND PA LATER SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY... WITH SNOW PROBABLY DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND`S EVENT... AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SIMILAR SNOW AMOUNTS... WITH MAXIMUM VALUES IN
THE SYRACUSE AREA EAST TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND SMALLEST AMOUNTS NORTHEAST OF HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY WHERE SW FLOW MAY
DOWNSLOPE OFF OF THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT THIS PATTERN AND GIVEN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL TIMES
THIS YEAR AND PARTICULARLY LAST WEEKEND WE ARE INCLINED TO BELIEVE
THIS SCENARIO.  BASICALLY EXPECTING A 2 TO 5 INCH SNOW EVENT FOR
MOST AREAS... WITH AGAIN LOWEST AMOUNTS NORTHEAST OF HIGHER
TERRAIN AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND POSSIBLY
SYRACUSE.

STEADIER SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BACK DOWN TO
AROUND -15 SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON SO SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE. WITH
THE FLOW FROM 300-310 DEGREES EXPECTING MULTIBANDS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. WITH A SHORT FETCH AND ICE COVER OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
ONTARIO EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE
SYRACUSE AREA SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THROUGH THE EASTERN FINGER
LAKES AREA... WITH UP TO A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES TRANSITORY.
POTENT STORM FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION TYPES LIKELY. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. AGAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE...BUT AVERAGE IS ABOVE FREEZING NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AM BEFORE THE STORM MOVES NE.
RIDGING ALOFT WITH WAA AT MID LEVELS. OVERRUNNING PRECIP STARTS AS
SNOW TUESDAY AFTN AND EVE. THE GFS IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS FASTER
THAN THE EURO. TUESDAY OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS GO ABOVE 0C SO
CHANGEOVER TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN. WARM AIR HEADS TO SURFACE
WEDNESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN EVERYWHERE. THE STORM
TRACK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST 2 OR 3 DAYS. MOVING NE INTO SE
ONTARIO WED AM. COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH WED PM CHANGING THE PRECIP
TO SNOW.

CAA THU NGT AND FRIDAY SO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY SO DRYING ESPECIALLY NE PA. GFS
AND EURO AGREE ON A WEAK CLIPPER MOVING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA
FRIDAY NGT WHICH MAY BRUSH THE NY ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCANT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IN VICINITY
OF KSYR-KRME BUT STILL VFR. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES KRME LATER THIS EVENING...BUT WITH IT BEING JUST A
POSSIBILITY AND NOT A LIKELIHOOD...I HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE
TAF /EVEN IF IT OCCURS...MINOR IF ANY RESTRICTION WOULD RESULT/.
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT W OR
NW DAYTIME HOURS OF SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT TO RAIN WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...HEDEN/TAC
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 280110
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
810 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD DRY WEATHER
TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
810 PM UPDATE...
EDGED THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS UP A FEW DEGREES
OVERNIGHT. LATEST OBS ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
PLAN, AND WHILE I EXPECT THE BOTTOM WILL DROP OUT ON THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE SOUNDING OVERNIGHT, I BELIEVE A COMBINATION OF THE
HRRR AND LAMP GUIDANCE PRODUCES A GOOD PROG FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY.

4 PM UPDATE...
BAND OF CLOUDS PERSISTS OVER THE SYRACUSE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES AT TIMES... WHILE ANOTHER BAND IS
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO. BOTH OF THESE BANDS SHOULD
WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST
TOWARD NY AND PENNSYLVANIA. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. NOTICED
THAT TEMPERATURES NEAR THE NORTHEAST RIM OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER
MICHIGAN WERE QUITE COLD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD ZERO
TO -20 READINGS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THAT STATE. MOS GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING LOWS NEAR ZERO TONIGHT... BIT OUR CURRENT FORECAST
IS COLDER AND BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS BELIEVE THAT THE COLDER
FORECAST IS PROBABLY BETTER. HAVE BASICALLY KEPT THE CURRENT
FORECAST GOING FOR READINGS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM NEAR OR JUST
BELOW ZERO IN WARMER AREAS... TO AS LOW AS -10 TO -15 IN NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT... WITH WIND CHILLS
BASICALLY RUNNING ABOUT THE SAME AS THE TEMPERATURE.

SATURDAY WILL BE A SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE
AREA. AFTER A VERY COLD START TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY RISE TO
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY... WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT SOME CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT EXPECT LOWEST TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE EAST WITH WIDESPREAD BELOW READINGS.
IN THE WEST TEMPERATURES MAY FALL TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE ZERO IN
THE EVENING... THEN LEVEL OUT OR MAYBE EVEN RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS NY
AND PA LATER SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY... WITH SNOW PROBABLY DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND`S EVENT... AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SIMILAR SNOW AMOUNTS... WITH MAXIMUM VALUES IN
THE SYRACUSE AREA EAST TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND SMALLEST AMOUNTS NORTHEAST OF HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY WHERE SW FLOW MAY
DOWNSLOPE OFF OF THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT THIS PATTERN AND GIVEN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL TIMES
THIS YEAR AND PARTICULARLY LAST WEEKEND WE ARE INCLINED TO BELIEVE
THIS SCENARIO.  BASICALLY EXPECTING A 2 TO 5 INCH SNOW EVENT FOR
MOST AREAS... WITH AGAIN LOWEST AMOUNTS NORTHEAST OF HIGHER
TERRAIN AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND POSSIBLY
SYRACUSE.

STEADIER SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BACK DOWN TO
AROUND -15 SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON SO SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE. WITH
THE FLOW FROM 300-310 DEGREES EXPECTING MULTIBANDS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. WITH A SHORT FETCH AND ICE COVER OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
ONTARIO EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE
SYRACUSE AREA SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THROUGH THE EASTERN FINGER
LAKES AREA... WITH UP TO A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES TRANSITORY.
POTENT STORM FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION TYPES LIKELY. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. AGAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE...BUT AVERAGE IS ABOVE FREEZING NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AM BEFORE THE STORM MOVES NE.
RIDGING ALOFT WITH WAA AT MID LEVELS. OVERRUNNING PRECIP STARTS AS
SNOW TUESDAY AFTN AND EVE. THE GFS IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS FASTER
THAN THE EURO. TUESDAY OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS GO ABOVE 0C SO
CHANGEOVER TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN. WARM AIR HEADS TO SURFACE
WEDNESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN EVERYWHERE. THE STORM
TRACK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST 2 OR 3 DAYS. MOVING NE INTO SE
ONTARIO WED AM. COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH WED PM CHANGING THE PRECIP
TO SNOW.

CAA THU NGT AND FRIDAY SO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY SO DRYING ESPECIALLY NE PA. GFS
AND EURO AGREE ON A WEAK CLIPPER MOVING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA
FRIDAY NGT WHICH MAY BRUSH THE NY ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCANT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IN VICINITY
OF KSYR-KRME BUT STILL VFR. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES KRME LATER THIS EVENING...BUT WITH IT BEING JUST A
POSSIBILITY AND NOT A LIKELIHOOD...I HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE
TAF /EVEN IF IT OCCURS...MINOR IF ANY RESTRICTION WOULD RESULT/.
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT W OR
NW DAYTIME HOURS OF SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT TO RAIN WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...HEDEN/TAC
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 280110
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
810 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD DRY WEATHER
TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
810 PM UPDATE...
EDGED THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS UP A FEW DEGREES
OVERNIGHT. LATEST OBS ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
PLAN, AND WHILE I EXPECT THE BOTTOM WILL DROP OUT ON THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE SOUNDING OVERNIGHT, I BELIEVE A COMBINATION OF THE
HRRR AND LAMP GUIDANCE PRODUCES A GOOD PROG FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY.

4 PM UPDATE...
BAND OF CLOUDS PERSISTS OVER THE SYRACUSE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES AT TIMES... WHILE ANOTHER BAND IS
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO. BOTH OF THESE BANDS SHOULD
WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST
TOWARD NY AND PENNSYLVANIA. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. NOTICED
THAT TEMPERATURES NEAR THE NORTHEAST RIM OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER
MICHIGAN WERE QUITE COLD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD ZERO
TO -20 READINGS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THAT STATE. MOS GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING LOWS NEAR ZERO TONIGHT... BIT OUR CURRENT FORECAST
IS COLDER AND BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS BELIEVE THAT THE COLDER
FORECAST IS PROBABLY BETTER. HAVE BASICALLY KEPT THE CURRENT
FORECAST GOING FOR READINGS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM NEAR OR JUST
BELOW ZERO IN WARMER AREAS... TO AS LOW AS -10 TO -15 IN NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT... WITH WIND CHILLS
BASICALLY RUNNING ABOUT THE SAME AS THE TEMPERATURE.

SATURDAY WILL BE A SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE
AREA. AFTER A VERY COLD START TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY RISE TO
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY... WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT SOME CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT EXPECT LOWEST TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE EAST WITH WIDESPREAD BELOW READINGS.
IN THE WEST TEMPERATURES MAY FALL TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE ZERO IN
THE EVENING... THEN LEVEL OUT OR MAYBE EVEN RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS NY
AND PA LATER SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY... WITH SNOW PROBABLY DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND`S EVENT... AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SIMILAR SNOW AMOUNTS... WITH MAXIMUM VALUES IN
THE SYRACUSE AREA EAST TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND SMALLEST AMOUNTS NORTHEAST OF HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY WHERE SW FLOW MAY
DOWNSLOPE OFF OF THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT THIS PATTERN AND GIVEN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL TIMES
THIS YEAR AND PARTICULARLY LAST WEEKEND WE ARE INCLINED TO BELIEVE
THIS SCENARIO.  BASICALLY EXPECTING A 2 TO 5 INCH SNOW EVENT FOR
MOST AREAS... WITH AGAIN LOWEST AMOUNTS NORTHEAST OF HIGHER
TERRAIN AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND POSSIBLY
SYRACUSE.

STEADIER SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BACK DOWN TO
AROUND -15 SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON SO SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE. WITH
THE FLOW FROM 300-310 DEGREES EXPECTING MULTIBANDS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. WITH A SHORT FETCH AND ICE COVER OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
ONTARIO EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE
SYRACUSE AREA SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THROUGH THE EASTERN FINGER
LAKES AREA... WITH UP TO A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES TRANSITORY.
POTENT STORM FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION TYPES LIKELY. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. AGAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE...BUT AVERAGE IS ABOVE FREEZING NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AM BEFORE THE STORM MOVES NE.
RIDGING ALOFT WITH WAA AT MID LEVELS. OVERRUNNING PRECIP STARTS AS
SNOW TUESDAY AFTN AND EVE. THE GFS IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS FASTER
THAN THE EURO. TUESDAY OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS GO ABOVE 0C SO
CHANGEOVER TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN. WARM AIR HEADS TO SURFACE
WEDNESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN EVERYWHERE. THE STORM
TRACK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST 2 OR 3 DAYS. MOVING NE INTO SE
ONTARIO WED AM. COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH WED PM CHANGING THE PRECIP
TO SNOW.

CAA THU NGT AND FRIDAY SO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY SO DRYING ESPECIALLY NE PA. GFS
AND EURO AGREE ON A WEAK CLIPPER MOVING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA
FRIDAY NGT WHICH MAY BRUSH THE NY ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCANT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IN VICINITY
OF KSYR-KRME BUT STILL VFR. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES KRME LATER THIS EVENING...BUT WITH IT BEING JUST A
POSSIBILITY AND NOT A LIKELIHOOD...I HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE
TAF /EVEN IF IT OCCURS...MINOR IF ANY RESTRICTION WOULD RESULT/.
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT W OR
NW DAYTIME HOURS OF SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT TO RAIN WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...HEDEN/TAC
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBUF 272348
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
648 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW
MOVING INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER STORM WILL APPROACH ON THE HEELS
OF THE SUNDAY STORM AND BRING A POTENTIAL FOR AN ICY MIX AND
STRONG WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SETTLE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO HAS
NOW SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE AND WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT
DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING
ABOUT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
NUMBERS ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS
INLAND AND NEAR MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NEW MONTH OF MARCH...AND METEOROLOGICAL START OF SPRING...WILL
OPEN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AS A WINTER STORM
DEVELOPS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TRACKS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR. A LARGE PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
BE TRANSPORTED OVER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A
SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORCING WILL ONLY INITIALLY BE ISENTROPIC WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT EARLIER SUNDAY THEN FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A BROAD 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT VORT MAX ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN 850MB JET WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FALL. 12Z MODELS DO SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE NAM/ECMWF/CMC BRINGING SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY 12Z SUN AND THE GFS HOLDING BACK SNOW
TIL AFTER 18Z SUN AND SREF AS EARLY AS 9Z. THE SUITE OF MODEL QPF
HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH A QUARTER TO HALF
INCH OF QPF. WARMER PROFILES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD HOLD
SNOW RATIOS DOWN TO AN AVERAGE OF 12:1 DURING MUCH OF THE EVENT
UNTIL COLDER AIR CIRCULATES IN BEHIND THE SURFACE WAVE LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE ALL COUNTIES SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...THE SOUTHERN TIER HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF 6 OF MORE
INCHES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
FORCING CONTRIBUTED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH COVERING THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL CLIMB TOWARD 30 THEN ONLY SLIP INTO THE 20S
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW AND CLOUD COVER. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
DEFORMATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW ON MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE CHANCES OF SOME LIMITED SNOW TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM TOWARD THE UPPER 20S EARLY THEN FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE STORM.
PACIFIC BASED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND
THE DEPARTING STORM WITH CLEARING SKIES GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD ADVECTION...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE A RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 10.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JUST AS WE ARE FINISHED CLEARING THE DRIVEWAYS AND SIDEWALKS FROM
SUNDAYS STORM...ANOTHER STRONGER AND WARMER STORM WILL QUICKLY
APPROACH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR AN ICY MIX
FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WITH
ATTENDANT VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A FULL
LATITUDE WESTERN STATES TROUGH TUESDAY TRIGGERING A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

WHILE SNOW LOOKS TO BEGIN ARRIVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OVERRIDE COLDER SUB-FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT PRODUCING A WARM NOSE
IN VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SNOW TO CHANGE
TO AN ICY MIX OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SECTIONS POSSIBLY EVEN GOING OVER
TO PLAIN RAIN AS TEMPERATURES PUSH TOWARD 40 DEGREES.

THE MATURE LOW WILL SHIFT JUST NORTHWEST OF WESTERN NEW YORK ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE
TRAILING STRONG WINDS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF PLAIN RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE RAIN WILL
MIX WITH SNOW AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST. THE TRACK OF THIS DEEPENING
LOW CUTTING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRONG
WINDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE
FALL-RISE COUPLET CROSSING DIRECTLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK INDICATING THE START OF THE DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN THE COMING
DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED HIGH WORKING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL STATES. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY DRY WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHERWISE VFR AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...BECOMING WINDY. MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH
SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
REGIONS.

THE COLD WEATHER HAS CAUSED CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. OUTSIDE OF FAST FLOWING
AREAS...VIRTUALLY ALL THE CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE FROZEN WITH A VERY
THICK ICE PACK IN PLACE. ICE EXCEEDS A FOOT IN MANY SLOW FLOWING
AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST AND NORTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PATH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA...POSSIBLY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. AT THIS
TIME...AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN MAY CAUSE
CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP AND POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  46.2        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  45.2        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
                29 DAYS         FEB 27 2015
                28 DAYS         JAN 12 1881


--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

            10      1979
             9      2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)


THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 19 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

            19      2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)
            16      1978


&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
MARINE...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
HYDROLOGY...FRANKLIN
CLIMATE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 272348
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
648 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW
MOVING INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER STORM WILL APPROACH ON THE HEELS
OF THE SUNDAY STORM AND BRING A POTENTIAL FOR AN ICY MIX AND
STRONG WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SETTLE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO HAS
NOW SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE AND WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT
DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING
ABOUT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
NUMBERS ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS
INLAND AND NEAR MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NEW MONTH OF MARCH...AND METEOROLOGICAL START OF SPRING...WILL
OPEN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AS A WINTER STORM
DEVELOPS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TRACKS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR. A LARGE PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
BE TRANSPORTED OVER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A
SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORCING WILL ONLY INITIALLY BE ISENTROPIC WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT EARLIER SUNDAY THEN FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A BROAD 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT VORT MAX ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN 850MB JET WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FALL. 12Z MODELS DO SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE NAM/ECMWF/CMC BRINGING SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY 12Z SUN AND THE GFS HOLDING BACK SNOW
TIL AFTER 18Z SUN AND SREF AS EARLY AS 9Z. THE SUITE OF MODEL QPF
HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH A QUARTER TO HALF
INCH OF QPF. WARMER PROFILES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD HOLD
SNOW RATIOS DOWN TO AN AVERAGE OF 12:1 DURING MUCH OF THE EVENT
UNTIL COLDER AIR CIRCULATES IN BEHIND THE SURFACE WAVE LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE ALL COUNTIES SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...THE SOUTHERN TIER HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF 6 OF MORE
INCHES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
FORCING CONTRIBUTED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH COVERING THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL CLIMB TOWARD 30 THEN ONLY SLIP INTO THE 20S
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW AND CLOUD COVER. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
DEFORMATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW ON MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE CHANCES OF SOME LIMITED SNOW TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM TOWARD THE UPPER 20S EARLY THEN FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE STORM.
PACIFIC BASED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND
THE DEPARTING STORM WITH CLEARING SKIES GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD ADVECTION...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE A RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 10.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JUST AS WE ARE FINISHED CLEARING THE DRIVEWAYS AND SIDEWALKS FROM
SUNDAYS STORM...ANOTHER STRONGER AND WARMER STORM WILL QUICKLY
APPROACH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR AN ICY MIX
FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WITH
ATTENDANT VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A FULL
LATITUDE WESTERN STATES TROUGH TUESDAY TRIGGERING A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

WHILE SNOW LOOKS TO BEGIN ARRIVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OVERRIDE COLDER SUB-FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT PRODUCING A WARM NOSE
IN VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SNOW TO CHANGE
TO AN ICY MIX OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SECTIONS POSSIBLY EVEN GOING OVER
TO PLAIN RAIN AS TEMPERATURES PUSH TOWARD 40 DEGREES.

THE MATURE LOW WILL SHIFT JUST NORTHWEST OF WESTERN NEW YORK ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE
TRAILING STRONG WINDS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF PLAIN RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE RAIN WILL
MIX WITH SNOW AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST. THE TRACK OF THIS DEEPENING
LOW CUTTING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRONG
WINDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE
FALL-RISE COUPLET CROSSING DIRECTLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK INDICATING THE START OF THE DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN THE COMING
DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED HIGH WORKING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL STATES. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY DRY WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHERWISE VFR AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...BECOMING WINDY. MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH
SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
REGIONS.

THE COLD WEATHER HAS CAUSED CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. OUTSIDE OF FAST FLOWING
AREAS...VIRTUALLY ALL THE CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE FROZEN WITH A VERY
THICK ICE PACK IN PLACE. ICE EXCEEDS A FOOT IN MANY SLOW FLOWING
AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST AND NORTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PATH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA...POSSIBLY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. AT THIS
TIME...AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN MAY CAUSE
CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP AND POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  46.2        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  45.2        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
                29 DAYS         FEB 27 2015
                28 DAYS         JAN 12 1881


--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

            10      1979
             9      2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)


THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 19 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

            19      2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)
            16      1978


&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
MARINE...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
HYDROLOGY...FRANKLIN
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 272348
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
648 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW
MOVING INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER STORM WILL APPROACH ON THE HEELS
OF THE SUNDAY STORM AND BRING A POTENTIAL FOR AN ICY MIX AND
STRONG WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SETTLE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO HAS
NOW SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE AND WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT
DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING
ABOUT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
NUMBERS ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS
INLAND AND NEAR MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NEW MONTH OF MARCH...AND METEOROLOGICAL START OF SPRING...WILL
OPEN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AS A WINTER STORM
DEVELOPS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TRACKS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR. A LARGE PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
BE TRANSPORTED OVER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A
SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORCING WILL ONLY INITIALLY BE ISENTROPIC WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT EARLIER SUNDAY THEN FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A BROAD 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT VORT MAX ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN 850MB JET WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FALL. 12Z MODELS DO SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE NAM/ECMWF/CMC BRINGING SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY 12Z SUN AND THE GFS HOLDING BACK SNOW
TIL AFTER 18Z SUN AND SREF AS EARLY AS 9Z. THE SUITE OF MODEL QPF
HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH A QUARTER TO HALF
INCH OF QPF. WARMER PROFILES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD HOLD
SNOW RATIOS DOWN TO AN AVERAGE OF 12:1 DURING MUCH OF THE EVENT
UNTIL COLDER AIR CIRCULATES IN BEHIND THE SURFACE WAVE LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE ALL COUNTIES SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...THE SOUTHERN TIER HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF 6 OF MORE
INCHES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
FORCING CONTRIBUTED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH COVERING THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL CLIMB TOWARD 30 THEN ONLY SLIP INTO THE 20S
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW AND CLOUD COVER. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
DEFORMATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW ON MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE CHANCES OF SOME LIMITED SNOW TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM TOWARD THE UPPER 20S EARLY THEN FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE STORM.
PACIFIC BASED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND
THE DEPARTING STORM WITH CLEARING SKIES GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD ADVECTION...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE A RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 10.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JUST AS WE ARE FINISHED CLEARING THE DRIVEWAYS AND SIDEWALKS FROM
SUNDAYS STORM...ANOTHER STRONGER AND WARMER STORM WILL QUICKLY
APPROACH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR AN ICY MIX
FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WITH
ATTENDANT VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A FULL
LATITUDE WESTERN STATES TROUGH TUESDAY TRIGGERING A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

WHILE SNOW LOOKS TO BEGIN ARRIVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OVERRIDE COLDER SUB-FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT PRODUCING A WARM NOSE
IN VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SNOW TO CHANGE
TO AN ICY MIX OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SECTIONS POSSIBLY EVEN GOING OVER
TO PLAIN RAIN AS TEMPERATURES PUSH TOWARD 40 DEGREES.

THE MATURE LOW WILL SHIFT JUST NORTHWEST OF WESTERN NEW YORK ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE
TRAILING STRONG WINDS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF PLAIN RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE RAIN WILL
MIX WITH SNOW AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST. THE TRACK OF THIS DEEPENING
LOW CUTTING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRONG
WINDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE
FALL-RISE COUPLET CROSSING DIRECTLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK INDICATING THE START OF THE DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN THE COMING
DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED HIGH WORKING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL STATES. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY DRY WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHERWISE VFR AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...BECOMING WINDY. MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH
SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
REGIONS.

THE COLD WEATHER HAS CAUSED CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. OUTSIDE OF FAST FLOWING
AREAS...VIRTUALLY ALL THE CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE FROZEN WITH A VERY
THICK ICE PACK IN PLACE. ICE EXCEEDS A FOOT IN MANY SLOW FLOWING
AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST AND NORTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PATH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA...POSSIBLY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. AT THIS
TIME...AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN MAY CAUSE
CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP AND POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  46.2        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  45.2        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
                29 DAYS         FEB 27 2015
                28 DAYS         JAN 12 1881


--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

            10      1979
             9      2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)


THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 19 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

            19      2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)
            16      1978


&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
MARINE...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
HYDROLOGY...FRANKLIN
CLIMATE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 272348
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
648 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW
MOVING INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER STORM WILL APPROACH ON THE HEELS
OF THE SUNDAY STORM AND BRING A POTENTIAL FOR AN ICY MIX AND
STRONG WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SETTLE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO HAS
NOW SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE AND WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT
DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING
ABOUT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
NUMBERS ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS
INLAND AND NEAR MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NEW MONTH OF MARCH...AND METEOROLOGICAL START OF SPRING...WILL
OPEN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AS A WINTER STORM
DEVELOPS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TRACKS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR. A LARGE PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
BE TRANSPORTED OVER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A
SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORCING WILL ONLY INITIALLY BE ISENTROPIC WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT EARLIER SUNDAY THEN FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A BROAD 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT VORT MAX ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN 850MB JET WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FALL. 12Z MODELS DO SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE NAM/ECMWF/CMC BRINGING SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY 12Z SUN AND THE GFS HOLDING BACK SNOW
TIL AFTER 18Z SUN AND SREF AS EARLY AS 9Z. THE SUITE OF MODEL QPF
HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH A QUARTER TO HALF
INCH OF QPF. WARMER PROFILES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD HOLD
SNOW RATIOS DOWN TO AN AVERAGE OF 12:1 DURING MUCH OF THE EVENT
UNTIL COLDER AIR CIRCULATES IN BEHIND THE SURFACE WAVE LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE ALL COUNTIES SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...THE SOUTHERN TIER HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF 6 OF MORE
INCHES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
FORCING CONTRIBUTED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH COVERING THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL CLIMB TOWARD 30 THEN ONLY SLIP INTO THE 20S
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW AND CLOUD COVER. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
DEFORMATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW ON MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE CHANCES OF SOME LIMITED SNOW TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM TOWARD THE UPPER 20S EARLY THEN FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE STORM.
PACIFIC BASED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND
THE DEPARTING STORM WITH CLEARING SKIES GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD ADVECTION...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE A RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 10.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JUST AS WE ARE FINISHED CLEARING THE DRIVEWAYS AND SIDEWALKS FROM
SUNDAYS STORM...ANOTHER STRONGER AND WARMER STORM WILL QUICKLY
APPROACH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR AN ICY MIX
FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WITH
ATTENDANT VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A FULL
LATITUDE WESTERN STATES TROUGH TUESDAY TRIGGERING A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

WHILE SNOW LOOKS TO BEGIN ARRIVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OVERRIDE COLDER SUB-FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT PRODUCING A WARM NOSE
IN VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SNOW TO CHANGE
TO AN ICY MIX OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SECTIONS POSSIBLY EVEN GOING OVER
TO PLAIN RAIN AS TEMPERATURES PUSH TOWARD 40 DEGREES.

THE MATURE LOW WILL SHIFT JUST NORTHWEST OF WESTERN NEW YORK ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE
TRAILING STRONG WINDS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF PLAIN RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE RAIN WILL
MIX WITH SNOW AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST. THE TRACK OF THIS DEEPENING
LOW CUTTING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRONG
WINDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE
FALL-RISE COUPLET CROSSING DIRECTLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK INDICATING THE START OF THE DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN THE COMING
DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED HIGH WORKING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL STATES. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY DRY WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHERWISE VFR AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...BECOMING WINDY. MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH
SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
REGIONS.

THE COLD WEATHER HAS CAUSED CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. OUTSIDE OF FAST FLOWING
AREAS...VIRTUALLY ALL THE CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE FROZEN WITH A VERY
THICK ICE PACK IN PLACE. ICE EXCEEDS A FOOT IN MANY SLOW FLOWING
AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST AND NORTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PATH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA...POSSIBLY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. AT THIS
TIME...AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN MAY CAUSE
CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP AND POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  46.2        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  45.2        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
                29 DAYS         FEB 27 2015
                28 DAYS         JAN 12 1881


--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

            10      1979
             9      2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)


THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 19 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

            19      2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/27)
            16      1978


&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
MARINE...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
HYDROLOGY...FRANKLIN
CLIMATE...THOMAS






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 272343
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
643 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF PATCHY CLOUDS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS. KTYX RADAR EVEN SUGGESTS SOME FLURRIES MAY BE
OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE SNOW
SHOWERS FROM THE WEST EXTEND FURTHER EAST INTO THIS REGION.

OTHERWISE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
TONIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AND
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS WILL FALL
BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND ESPECIALLY NEAR GLENS FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH
WINDS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 MPH IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
00Z/SUN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
BETWEEN 01Z-03Z/SAT AT MOST TAF SITES. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING SATURDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 272320
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
620 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING
CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AND LASTING INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES GENERALLY
EXPECTED. ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS. FOLLOWING THE BRIEF WARMUP
WEDNESDAY...COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EST FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY NOISE LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/SKY DATASETS AS WE PROGRESS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DID ADD SOME PTLY CLOUDY WORDING INTO OUR
FAR SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAY TRANSPORT A FEW LAKE-INDUCED CLOUDS INTO THIS AREA OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE LOOKING AT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND CHILLY
SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES AS SPRAWLING 1040 MB SFC RIDGE MAINTAINS
CONTROL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. HAVE A GREAT
EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 336 PM EST FRIDAY...
SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS AS CENTER OF STRONG (1045MB)
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS EWD ACROSS PA AND THE SRN TIER OF NEW
YORK. UNDERCUT MOS CONSENSUS BY A FEW DEGREES WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED. EARLY AM LOWS ANTICIPATED
TO RANGE FROM 0 TO -10F IN MOST SPOTS (-2F AT BTV)...BUT LOCALLY
-15F TO -25F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND THE COLDER VALLEYS IN
VERMONT`S NORTHEAST KINGDOM. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH
THIS EVENING WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT 5 MPH OR LESS AS BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZATION OCCURS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM EST FRIDAY...STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE NERN CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...PROVIDING
CONTINUED DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THRU MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE AS WE CLOSE OUT
FEBRUARY...BUMPED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH READINGS REACHING THE LOW/MID 20S FOR
SATURDAY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND MID/UPR 20S ON SUNDAY. WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTN HOURS SUNDAY
AS FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID-LEVEL WAA
REGIME COMMENCES ACROSS NY/NEW ENGLAND. PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
INCREASES AS SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.
THUS...WILL SEE SOUTH-SSW WINDS 10-15 MPH (WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25
MPH SUNDAY AFTN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY).

INCREASING 850-700MB WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALLOWS WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-NE DURING
SUNDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH 2-3" OF ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN
MOST SPOTS. OVERCAST SKIES AND CONTINUED LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPR TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EST FRIDAY...
MONDAY... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA BRINGING CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES TOWARDS THE EAST NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA FOR MAX TEMPS AND THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE VALLEYS WITH SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND IN THE ADIRONDACK
MOUNTAINS. MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS THERE WILL BE A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE BETWEEN THE 1008MB LOW OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE AND THE 1034MB HIGH CENTERED OVER IOWA. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 25KTS ACROSS
THE VALLEYS WITH MUCH HIGHER VALUES AT THE SUMMITS GUSTING TO
NEARLY 45KTS AT THE TOP OF WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN AND MT MANSFIELD.
THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOWFALL
ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF BOTH THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS SO
THAT WOULD BE WHERE I`D EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SO, I`M ONLY LOOKING AT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF
0.5 TO 1.5" INCHES ON MONDAY AND THEN THE PRECIP SHOULD END
SHARPLY AS THE LOW CONTINUES OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE SETS IN.

TUESDAY... THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LEAVING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN MONDAY BUT STILL WELL ABOVE WHAT
WE`VE BEEN SEEING MOST OF FEBRUARY.  EVEN BEHIND THE MILD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH ON MONDAY, THE RISING SUN ANGLE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
THAT CAUSED MONDAY`S WINDS WILL HAVE SUBSIDED LEAVING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SHIFTING FROM MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL ONLY DROP BY A FEW DEGREES AS THE SOUTHERLY WARMER
RETURN FLOW WILL SET IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH.

WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE TWO SLIGHTLY DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR THE
FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.  THE BROAD SENSE OF THE FORECAST IS THAT A
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPAWN A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SURFACE
SYSTEM WILL FEED OFF BOTH A NORTHERLY STREAM OF ENERGY AND A
SOUTHERLY STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM.  THE NET RESULT IS A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A
LONG TIME THE CURRENT IDEA IS THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY AT SOME POINT
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PUSHES INTO
THE AREA TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY.  AS SUCH THERE WILL BE A WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY BY MORNING AND THEN BACK TO
SNOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. USING THE GFS AS THE THERMAL
PROFILE GAVE ME QUITE THE MIX OF PTYPES. FOR THE TIME BEING I OPTED
TO REMOVE FREEZING RAIN FROM THE FORECAST TRANSITION AND TRANSITION
STRAIGHT FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND THEN TO RAIN.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A SMALL WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN BUT AT 5 AND 6 DAYS OUT I JUST DON`T
HAVE THAT KIND OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THAT WINDOW.  I DID
HOWEVER WANT TO ESTABLISH THE WINTRY MIX AND THUS NOT JUST POINT TO
RAIN OR SNOW. 1000-500MB THICKNESS LEVELS WILL BE APPROACH 5500
METERS WELL ABOVE THE "MAGIC" 5400 METER LINE FOR RAIN/SNOW. RIGHT
NOW I WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
TIMING/LOCATION/INTENSITY BUT I FAVOURED THE TRACK OF THE ECMWF A
BIT MORE BECAUSE THE GFS POINTS TO A LOW TRACKING UP THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THEN BOMBING OUT OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING THATS QUITE RARE AND TYPICALLY DOESN`T
HAPPEN.  THE BOMBING LOWS TYPICALLY RUN UP THE COASTAL SO CONSIDER
ME SKEPTICAL OF THAT SOLUTION FOR THE TIME BEING. AS THE LOW PUSHED
THROUGH THE REGION THERE WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY
ALOFT GUSTY TO 40-50KTS ABOVE 2000 FT.

THURSDAY... THE SURFACE LOW THAT BROUGHT THE SNOWFALL WILL BE
PUSHING WELL OUT OF THE AREA TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST GIVING WAY TO
ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY IN THE MORNING THURSDAY
A BURST OF ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE NORTHERLY WRAP
AROUND WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A DECENT SHOT AT OROGRAPHIC SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS SO I WENT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANGE BEGINNING EVERYWHERE
ELSE BY THURSDAY MID MORNING.  THE ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING MAX TEMPS AROUND 30 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH LOW TO
MID 20S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SETS IN AND WE WILL DEVELOP DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY... ONCE AGAIN TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S UNDER THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ONLY MARGINAL CHANCES
OF SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GREENS
AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER REGIONAL WX CONDITIONS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY TREND A BIT GUSTY AT KMSS AFTER 15Z
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...JMG/DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 272320
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
620 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING
CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AND LASTING INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES GENERALLY
EXPECTED. ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS. FOLLOWING THE BRIEF WARMUP
WEDNESDAY...COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EST FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY NOISE LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/SKY DATASETS AS WE PROGRESS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DID ADD SOME PTLY CLOUDY WORDING INTO OUR
FAR SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAY TRANSPORT A FEW LAKE-INDUCED CLOUDS INTO THIS AREA OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE LOOKING AT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND CHILLY
SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES AS SPRAWLING 1040 MB SFC RIDGE MAINTAINS
CONTROL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. HAVE A GREAT
EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 336 PM EST FRIDAY...
SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS AS CENTER OF STRONG (1045MB)
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS EWD ACROSS PA AND THE SRN TIER OF NEW
YORK. UNDERCUT MOS CONSENSUS BY A FEW DEGREES WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED. EARLY AM LOWS ANTICIPATED
TO RANGE FROM 0 TO -10F IN MOST SPOTS (-2F AT BTV)...BUT LOCALLY
-15F TO -25F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND THE COLDER VALLEYS IN
VERMONT`S NORTHEAST KINGDOM. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH
THIS EVENING WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT 5 MPH OR LESS AS BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZATION OCCURS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM EST FRIDAY...STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE NERN CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...PROVIDING
CONTINUED DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THRU MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE AS WE CLOSE OUT
FEBRUARY...BUMPED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH READINGS REACHING THE LOW/MID 20S FOR
SATURDAY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND MID/UPR 20S ON SUNDAY. WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTN HOURS SUNDAY
AS FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID-LEVEL WAA
REGIME COMMENCES ACROSS NY/NEW ENGLAND. PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
INCREASES AS SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.
THUS...WILL SEE SOUTH-SSW WINDS 10-15 MPH (WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25
MPH SUNDAY AFTN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY).

INCREASING 850-700MB WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALLOWS WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-NE DURING
SUNDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH 2-3" OF ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN
MOST SPOTS. OVERCAST SKIES AND CONTINUED LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPR TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EST FRIDAY...
MONDAY... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA BRINGING CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES TOWARDS THE EAST NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA FOR MAX TEMPS AND THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE VALLEYS WITH SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND IN THE ADIRONDACK
MOUNTAINS. MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS THERE WILL BE A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE BETWEEN THE 1008MB LOW OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE AND THE 1034MB HIGH CENTERED OVER IOWA. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 25KTS ACROSS
THE VALLEYS WITH MUCH HIGHER VALUES AT THE SUMMITS GUSTING TO
NEARLY 45KTS AT THE TOP OF WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN AND MT MANSFIELD.
THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOWFALL
ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF BOTH THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS SO
THAT WOULD BE WHERE I`D EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SO, I`M ONLY LOOKING AT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF
0.5 TO 1.5" INCHES ON MONDAY AND THEN THE PRECIP SHOULD END
SHARPLY AS THE LOW CONTINUES OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE SETS IN.

TUESDAY... THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LEAVING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN MONDAY BUT STILL WELL ABOVE WHAT
WE`VE BEEN SEEING MOST OF FEBRUARY.  EVEN BEHIND THE MILD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH ON MONDAY, THE RISING SUN ANGLE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
THAT CAUSED MONDAY`S WINDS WILL HAVE SUBSIDED LEAVING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SHIFTING FROM MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL ONLY DROP BY A FEW DEGREES AS THE SOUTHERLY WARMER
RETURN FLOW WILL SET IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH.

WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE TWO SLIGHTLY DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR THE
FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.  THE BROAD SENSE OF THE FORECAST IS THAT A
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPAWN A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SURFACE
SYSTEM WILL FEED OFF BOTH A NORTHERLY STREAM OF ENERGY AND A
SOUTHERLY STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM.  THE NET RESULT IS A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A
LONG TIME THE CURRENT IDEA IS THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY AT SOME POINT
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PUSHES INTO
THE AREA TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY.  AS SUCH THERE WILL BE A WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY BY MORNING AND THEN BACK TO
SNOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. USING THE GFS AS THE THERMAL
PROFILE GAVE ME QUITE THE MIX OF PTYPES. FOR THE TIME BEING I OPTED
TO REMOVE FREEZING RAIN FROM THE FORECAST TRANSITION AND TRANSITION
STRAIGHT FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND THEN TO RAIN.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A SMALL WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN BUT AT 5 AND 6 DAYS OUT I JUST DON`T
HAVE THAT KIND OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THAT WINDOW.  I DID
HOWEVER WANT TO ESTABLISH THE WINTRY MIX AND THUS NOT JUST POINT TO
RAIN OR SNOW. 1000-500MB THICKNESS LEVELS WILL BE APPROACH 5500
METERS WELL ABOVE THE "MAGIC" 5400 METER LINE FOR RAIN/SNOW. RIGHT
NOW I WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
TIMING/LOCATION/INTENSITY BUT I FAVOURED THE TRACK OF THE ECMWF A
BIT MORE BECAUSE THE GFS POINTS TO A LOW TRACKING UP THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THEN BOMBING OUT OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING THATS QUITE RARE AND TYPICALLY DOESN`T
HAPPEN.  THE BOMBING LOWS TYPICALLY RUN UP THE COASTAL SO CONSIDER
ME SKEPTICAL OF THAT SOLUTION FOR THE TIME BEING. AS THE LOW PUSHED
THROUGH THE REGION THERE WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY
ALOFT GUSTY TO 40-50KTS ABOVE 2000 FT.

THURSDAY... THE SURFACE LOW THAT BROUGHT THE SNOWFALL WILL BE
PUSHING WELL OUT OF THE AREA TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST GIVING WAY TO
ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY IN THE MORNING THURSDAY
A BURST OF ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE NORTHERLY WRAP
AROUND WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A DECENT SHOT AT OROGRAPHIC SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS SO I WENT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANGE BEGINNING EVERYWHERE
ELSE BY THURSDAY MID MORNING.  THE ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING MAX TEMPS AROUND 30 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH LOW TO
MID 20S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SETS IN AND WE WILL DEVELOP DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY... ONCE AGAIN TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S UNDER THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ONLY MARGINAL CHANCES
OF SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GREENS
AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER REGIONAL WX CONDITIONS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY TREND A BIT GUSTY AT KMSS AFTER 15Z
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...JMG/DEAL


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 272314
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
613 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN ON TUESDAY BEFORE
YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK - COLD & DRY. HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN A CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT NW SFC FLOW (CALM AT TIMES). THIS ALONG WITH A
DECENT SNOW PACK WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND ZERO FOR
SOME NORTHERN SUBURBS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE REST OF
THE SUBURBS. THE CITY AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO 10-15 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. SUNNY TO START ON SATURDAY...THEN THERE
COULD BE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL LIMIT
THE MIXING HEIGHT BY ABOUT 25MB VERSUS TODAY...AND WITH A SIMILAR
TEMP EXPECTED AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LESS OF A
DOWNSLOPE FACTOR...HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY. A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND MATCHES THIS THINKING. THIS IS ABOUT
15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL.

ANY CLOUD COVER REMAINING BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD SHIFT OUT
TO THE EAST...THEN A PERIOD OF CLEAR CONDITIONS BEFORE MID-HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO RETURN LATE AT NIGHT. THE LACK OF CAA AND THE LATE
NIGHT CLOUD INCREASE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS
THEY WILL TONIGHT IN SPITE OF MORE WIDESPREAD CALM WINDS.
STILL...LOWS AVERAGING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. 18Z GFS IS NOW FASTER AND CLOSER TO NAM
WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN LATE SUNDAY - SUGGESTING MORE OF A MID
AFTN ONSET. 15Z SREF THOUGH STILL SUGGESTS A LATER START.

FROM PREVIOUS...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ON BOARD FOR A CHANGE IN THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH THE PERSISTENT HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA FINALLY BREAKING DOWN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SPLIT
CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. BY MID
WEEK...RIDGING BEGINS TO EXPAND NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES...AND A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST FROM THE
PLAINS STATES.

THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF FRONTAL
SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA...THE FIRST SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THEN
ANOTHER TUE NIGHT INTO THU. THE LATTER OF WHICH DIFFERS IN THE
SYSTEM PROGRESSION AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES
TO BE ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. PREFERENCE WAS TO TAKE A
MIDDLE ROAD SOLUTION...WHICH IN TIMING WAS CLOSE TO THE GGEM.

THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVING LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT PRECEDED BY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. THE UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW WHICH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NAM WRF AND GGEM HINT AT A WEAK
SECONDARY LOW FORMING TO THE SOUTH SUN NIGHT. THIS MAY MAKE FOR A
CHALLENGING RAIN/SNOW LINE...WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE LI/NY METRO AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD
KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL COLD WITH A NLY FLOW AND RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN. RIGHT NOW...LOOKING FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AND A
LIGHT ICE ACCRETION TO THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS DRY OUT MON MORNING
WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR...ALBEIT WARMER THAN IN RECENT WEEKS.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO BRING OVERRUNNING PCPN TO THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THIS TIME AROUND WARMER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH THE NORTH. KEPT CHANCES OF
PCPN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WED NIGHT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TRANSITION BACK TO WINTRY PCPN WED NIGHT.

THE WEEK COMES TO AN END ON A COLD...BLUSTERY NOTE...WITH READINGS
WELL BELOW NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROF REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN OVER THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WNW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BACKING WEST
SAT AFT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15KT POSSIBLE METRO TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SAT EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC IN THE
MORNING...BACKING TO LEFT OF 310 MAG AFTER 18-20Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC IN THE
MORNING...BACKING TO LEFT OF 310 MAG AFTER 18-20Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC IN THE
MORNING...BACKING TO LEFT OF 310 MAG AFTER 18-20Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN MORN...VFR.
.SUN AFTN-EARLY MON MORN...MVFR OR LOWER IN -SN CHANGING TO A
WINTRY MIX COAST AND -SN INLAND SUN NIGHT. SE SFC WND G15-20KT
POSSIBLE SUN AFTN.
.MON-TUE MORN...VFR. NW WINDS G15-25KT MON AFTN/EVE.
.TUE AFTN-WED...IFR POSSIBLE IN -SN CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX TUE
NGT. RA LATE TUE NGT/WED MORN. BECOMING VFR LATE WED. LLWS
POSSIBLE TUE NGT-WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SWELL WILL BE DIMINISHING INTO TONIGHT...AND WITH ALL AREA BUOYS
REPORTING JUST BELOW 5 FT. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...BUT STILL BELOW SCA CRITERIA. WINDS
WILL BE OFFSHORE...SO WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL AS THE
SWELL SUBSIDES. BY SAT AFTN...WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW 10 KT AND REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES
OVERHEAD OR NEARBY LATE AT NIGHT.

SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT
ON THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JC/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MALOIT/NV
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 272314
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
613 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN ON TUESDAY BEFORE
YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK - COLD & DRY. HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN A CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT NW SFC FLOW (CALM AT TIMES). THIS ALONG WITH A
DECENT SNOW PACK WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND ZERO FOR
SOME NORTHERN SUBURBS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE REST OF
THE SUBURBS. THE CITY AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO 10-15 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. SUNNY TO START ON SATURDAY...THEN THERE
COULD BE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL LIMIT
THE MIXING HEIGHT BY ABOUT 25MB VERSUS TODAY...AND WITH A SIMILAR
TEMP EXPECTED AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LESS OF A
DOWNSLOPE FACTOR...HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY. A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND MATCHES THIS THINKING. THIS IS ABOUT
15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL.

ANY CLOUD COVER REMAINING BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD SHIFT OUT
TO THE EAST...THEN A PERIOD OF CLEAR CONDITIONS BEFORE MID-HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO RETURN LATE AT NIGHT. THE LACK OF CAA AND THE LATE
NIGHT CLOUD INCREASE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS
THEY WILL TONIGHT IN SPITE OF MORE WIDESPREAD CALM WINDS.
STILL...LOWS AVERAGING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. 18Z GFS IS NOW FASTER AND CLOSER TO NAM
WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN LATE SUNDAY - SUGGESTING MORE OF A MID
AFTN ONSET. 15Z SREF THOUGH STILL SUGGESTS A LATER START.

FROM PREVIOUS...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ON BOARD FOR A CHANGE IN THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH THE PERSISTENT HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA FINALLY BREAKING DOWN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SPLIT
CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. BY MID
WEEK...RIDGING BEGINS TO EXPAND NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES...AND A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST FROM THE
PLAINS STATES.

THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF FRONTAL
SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA...THE FIRST SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THEN
ANOTHER TUE NIGHT INTO THU. THE LATTER OF WHICH DIFFERS IN THE
SYSTEM PROGRESSION AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES
TO BE ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. PREFERENCE WAS TO TAKE A
MIDDLE ROAD SOLUTION...WHICH IN TIMING WAS CLOSE TO THE GGEM.

THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVING LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT PRECEDED BY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. THE UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW WHICH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NAM WRF AND GGEM HINT AT A WEAK
SECONDARY LOW FORMING TO THE SOUTH SUN NIGHT. THIS MAY MAKE FOR A
CHALLENGING RAIN/SNOW LINE...WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE LI/NY METRO AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD
KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL COLD WITH A NLY FLOW AND RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN. RIGHT NOW...LOOKING FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AND A
LIGHT ICE ACCRETION TO THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS DRY OUT MON MORNING
WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR...ALBEIT WARMER THAN IN RECENT WEEKS.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO BRING OVERRUNNING PCPN TO THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THIS TIME AROUND WARMER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH THE NORTH. KEPT CHANCES OF
PCPN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WED NIGHT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TRANSITION BACK TO WINTRY PCPN WED NIGHT.

THE WEEK COMES TO AN END ON A COLD...BLUSTERY NOTE...WITH READINGS
WELL BELOW NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROF REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN OVER THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WNW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BACKING WEST
SAT AFT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15KT POSSIBLE METRO TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SAT EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC IN THE
MORNING...BACKING TO LEFT OF 310 MAG AFTER 18-20Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC IN THE
MORNING...BACKING TO LEFT OF 310 MAG AFTER 18-20Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC IN THE
MORNING...BACKING TO LEFT OF 310 MAG AFTER 18-20Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN MORN...VFR.
.SUN AFTN-EARLY MON MORN...MVFR OR LOWER IN -SN CHANGING TO A
WINTRY MIX COAST AND -SN INLAND SUN NIGHT. SE SFC WND G15-20KT
POSSIBLE SUN AFTN.
.MON-TUE MORN...VFR. NW WINDS G15-25KT MON AFTN/EVE.
.TUE AFTN-WED...IFR POSSIBLE IN -SN CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX TUE
NGT. RA LATE TUE NGT/WED MORN. BECOMING VFR LATE WED. LLWS
POSSIBLE TUE NGT-WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SWELL WILL BE DIMINISHING INTO TONIGHT...AND WITH ALL AREA BUOYS
REPORTING JUST BELOW 5 FT. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...BUT STILL BELOW SCA CRITERIA. WINDS
WILL BE OFFSHORE...SO WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL AS THE
SWELL SUBSIDES. BY SAT AFTN...WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW 10 KT AND REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES
OVERHEAD OR NEARBY LATE AT NIGHT.

SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT
ON THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JC/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MALOIT/NV
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW










000
FXUS61 KOKX 272314
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
613 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN ON TUESDAY BEFORE
YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK - COLD & DRY. HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN A CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT NW SFC FLOW (CALM AT TIMES). THIS ALONG WITH A
DECENT SNOW PACK WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND ZERO FOR
SOME NORTHERN SUBURBS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE REST OF
THE SUBURBS. THE CITY AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO 10-15 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. SUNNY TO START ON SATURDAY...THEN THERE
COULD BE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL LIMIT
THE MIXING HEIGHT BY ABOUT 25MB VERSUS TODAY...AND WITH A SIMILAR
TEMP EXPECTED AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LESS OF A
DOWNSLOPE FACTOR...HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY. A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND MATCHES THIS THINKING. THIS IS ABOUT
15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL.

ANY CLOUD COVER REMAINING BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD SHIFT OUT
TO THE EAST...THEN A PERIOD OF CLEAR CONDITIONS BEFORE MID-HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO RETURN LATE AT NIGHT. THE LACK OF CAA AND THE LATE
NIGHT CLOUD INCREASE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS
THEY WILL TONIGHT IN SPITE OF MORE WIDESPREAD CALM WINDS.
STILL...LOWS AVERAGING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. 18Z GFS IS NOW FASTER AND CLOSER TO NAM
WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN LATE SUNDAY - SUGGESTING MORE OF A MID
AFTN ONSET. 15Z SREF THOUGH STILL SUGGESTS A LATER START.

FROM PREVIOUS...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ON BOARD FOR A CHANGE IN THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH THE PERSISTENT HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA FINALLY BREAKING DOWN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SPLIT
CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. BY MID
WEEK...RIDGING BEGINS TO EXPAND NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES...AND A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST FROM THE
PLAINS STATES.

THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF FRONTAL
SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA...THE FIRST SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THEN
ANOTHER TUE NIGHT INTO THU. THE LATTER OF WHICH DIFFERS IN THE
SYSTEM PROGRESSION AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES
TO BE ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. PREFERENCE WAS TO TAKE A
MIDDLE ROAD SOLUTION...WHICH IN TIMING WAS CLOSE TO THE GGEM.

THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVING LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT PRECEDED BY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. THE UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW WHICH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NAM WRF AND GGEM HINT AT A WEAK
SECONDARY LOW FORMING TO THE SOUTH SUN NIGHT. THIS MAY MAKE FOR A
CHALLENGING RAIN/SNOW LINE...WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE LI/NY METRO AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD
KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL COLD WITH A NLY FLOW AND RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN. RIGHT NOW...LOOKING FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AND A
LIGHT ICE ACCRETION TO THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS DRY OUT MON MORNING
WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR...ALBEIT WARMER THAN IN RECENT WEEKS.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO BRING OVERRUNNING PCPN TO THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THIS TIME AROUND WARMER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH THE NORTH. KEPT CHANCES OF
PCPN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WED NIGHT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TRANSITION BACK TO WINTRY PCPN WED NIGHT.

THE WEEK COMES TO AN END ON A COLD...BLUSTERY NOTE...WITH READINGS
WELL BELOW NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROF REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN OVER THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WNW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BACKING WEST
SAT AFT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15KT POSSIBLE METRO TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SAT EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC IN THE
MORNING...BACKING TO LEFT OF 310 MAG AFTER 18-20Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC IN THE
MORNING...BACKING TO LEFT OF 310 MAG AFTER 18-20Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC IN THE
MORNING...BACKING TO LEFT OF 310 MAG AFTER 18-20Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN MORN...VFR.
.SUN AFTN-EARLY MON MORN...MVFR OR LOWER IN -SN CHANGING TO A
WINTRY MIX COAST AND -SN INLAND SUN NIGHT. SE SFC WND G15-20KT
POSSIBLE SUN AFTN.
.MON-TUE MORN...VFR. NW WINDS G15-25KT MON AFTN/EVE.
.TUE AFTN-WED...IFR POSSIBLE IN -SN CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX TUE
NGT. RA LATE TUE NGT/WED MORN. BECOMING VFR LATE WED. LLWS
POSSIBLE TUE NGT-WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SWELL WILL BE DIMINISHING INTO TONIGHT...AND WITH ALL AREA BUOYS
REPORTING JUST BELOW 5 FT. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...BUT STILL BELOW SCA CRITERIA. WINDS
WILL BE OFFSHORE...SO WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL AS THE
SWELL SUBSIDES. BY SAT AFTN...WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW 10 KT AND REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES
OVERHEAD OR NEARBY LATE AT NIGHT.

SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT
ON THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JC/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MALOIT/NV
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 272314
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
613 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN ON TUESDAY BEFORE
YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK - COLD & DRY. HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN A CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT NW SFC FLOW (CALM AT TIMES). THIS ALONG WITH A
DECENT SNOW PACK WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND ZERO FOR
SOME NORTHERN SUBURBS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE REST OF
THE SUBURBS. THE CITY AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO 10-15 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. SUNNY TO START ON SATURDAY...THEN THERE
COULD BE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL LIMIT
THE MIXING HEIGHT BY ABOUT 25MB VERSUS TODAY...AND WITH A SIMILAR
TEMP EXPECTED AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LESS OF A
DOWNSLOPE FACTOR...HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY. A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND MATCHES THIS THINKING. THIS IS ABOUT
15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL.

ANY CLOUD COVER REMAINING BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD SHIFT OUT
TO THE EAST...THEN A PERIOD OF CLEAR CONDITIONS BEFORE MID-HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO RETURN LATE AT NIGHT. THE LACK OF CAA AND THE LATE
NIGHT CLOUD INCREASE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS
THEY WILL TONIGHT IN SPITE OF MORE WIDESPREAD CALM WINDS.
STILL...LOWS AVERAGING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. 18Z GFS IS NOW FASTER AND CLOSER TO NAM
WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN LATE SUNDAY - SUGGESTING MORE OF A MID
AFTN ONSET. 15Z SREF THOUGH STILL SUGGESTS A LATER START.

FROM PREVIOUS...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ON BOARD FOR A CHANGE IN THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH THE PERSISTENT HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA FINALLY BREAKING DOWN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SPLIT
CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. BY MID
WEEK...RIDGING BEGINS TO EXPAND NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES...AND A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST FROM THE
PLAINS STATES.

THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF FRONTAL
SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA...THE FIRST SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THEN
ANOTHER TUE NIGHT INTO THU. THE LATTER OF WHICH DIFFERS IN THE
SYSTEM PROGRESSION AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES
TO BE ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. PREFERENCE WAS TO TAKE A
MIDDLE ROAD SOLUTION...WHICH IN TIMING WAS CLOSE TO THE GGEM.

THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVING LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT PRECEDED BY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. THE UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW WHICH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NAM WRF AND GGEM HINT AT A WEAK
SECONDARY LOW FORMING TO THE SOUTH SUN NIGHT. THIS MAY MAKE FOR A
CHALLENGING RAIN/SNOW LINE...WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE LI/NY METRO AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD
KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL COLD WITH A NLY FLOW AND RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN. RIGHT NOW...LOOKING FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AND A
LIGHT ICE ACCRETION TO THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS DRY OUT MON MORNING
WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR...ALBEIT WARMER THAN IN RECENT WEEKS.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO BRING OVERRUNNING PCPN TO THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THIS TIME AROUND WARMER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH THE NORTH. KEPT CHANCES OF
PCPN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WED NIGHT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TRANSITION BACK TO WINTRY PCPN WED NIGHT.

THE WEEK COMES TO AN END ON A COLD...BLUSTERY NOTE...WITH READINGS
WELL BELOW NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROF REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN OVER THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WNW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BACKING WEST
SAT AFT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15KT POSSIBLE METRO TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SAT EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC IN THE
MORNING...BACKING TO LEFT OF 310 MAG AFTER 18-20Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC IN THE
MORNING...BACKING TO LEFT OF 310 MAG AFTER 18-20Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC IN THE
MORNING...BACKING TO LEFT OF 310 MAG AFTER 18-20Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NIGHT-SUN MORN...VFR.
.SUN AFTN-EARLY MON MORN...MVFR OR LOWER IN -SN CHANGING TO A
WINTRY MIX COAST AND -SN INLAND SUN NIGHT. SE SFC WND G15-20KT
POSSIBLE SUN AFTN.
.MON-TUE MORN...VFR. NW WINDS G15-25KT MON AFTN/EVE.
.TUE AFTN-WED...IFR POSSIBLE IN -SN CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX TUE
NGT. RA LATE TUE NGT/WED MORN. BECOMING VFR LATE WED. LLWS
POSSIBLE TUE NGT-WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SWELL WILL BE DIMINISHING INTO TONIGHT...AND WITH ALL AREA BUOYS
REPORTING JUST BELOW 5 FT. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...BUT STILL BELOW SCA CRITERIA. WINDS
WILL BE OFFSHORE...SO WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL AS THE
SWELL SUBSIDES. BY SAT AFTN...WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW 10 KT AND REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES
OVERHEAD OR NEARBY LATE AT NIGHT.

SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT
ON THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JC/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MALOIT/NV
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW










000
FXUS61 KBGM 272256
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
556 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD DRY WEATHER
TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAND OF CLOUDS PERSISTS OVER THE SYRACUSE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES AT TIMES... WHILE ANOTHER BAND IS LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO. BOTH OF THESE BANDS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST TOWARD NY AND
PENNSYLVANIA. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BELOW ZERO IN MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. NOTICED THAT TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE NORTHEAST RIM OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER MICHIGAN WERE QUITE
COLD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD ZERO TO -20 READINGS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THAT STATE. MOS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOWS
NEAR ZERO TONIGHT... BIT OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS COLDER AND BASED ON
CURRENT CONDITIONS BELIEVE THAT THE COLDER FORECAST IS PROBABLY
BETTER. HAVE BASICALLY KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING FOR
READINGS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO IN WARMER
AREAS... TO AS LOW AS -10 TO -15 IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT... WITH WIND CHILLS BASICALLY RUNNING ABOUT
THE SAME AS THE TEMPERATURE.

SATURDAY WILL BE A SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE
AREA. AFTER A VERY COLD START TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY RISE TO
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY... WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT SOME CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT EXPECT LOWEST TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE EAST WITH WIDESPREAD BELOW READINGS.
IN THE WEST TEMPERATURES MAY FALL TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE ZERO IN
THE EVENING... THEN LEVEL OUT OR MAYBE EVEN RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS NY
AND PA LATER SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY... WITH SNOW PROBABLY DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND`S EVENT... AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SIMILAR SNOW AMOUNTS... WITH MAXIMUM VALUES IN
THE SYRACUSE AREA EAST TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND SMALLEST AMOUNTS NORTHEAST OF HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY WHERE SW FLOW MAY
DOWNSLOPE OFF OF THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT THIS PATTERN AND GIVEN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL TIMES
THIS YEAR AND PARTICULARLY LAST WEEKEND WE ARE INCLINED TO BELIEVE
THIS SCENARIO.  BASICALLY EXPECTING A 2 TO 5 INCH SNOW EVENT FOR
MOST AREAS... WITH AGAIN LOWEST AMOUNTS NORTHEAST OF HIGHER
TERRAIN AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND POSSIBLY
SYRACUSE.

STEADIER SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BACK DOWN TO
AROUND -15 SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON SO SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE. WITH
THE FLOW FROM 300-310 DEGREES EXPECTING MULTIBANDS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. WITH A SHORT FETCH AND ICE COVER OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
ONTARIO EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE
SYRACUSE AREA SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THROUGH THE EASTERN FINGER
LAKES AREA... WITH UP TO A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES TRANSITORY.
POTENT STORM FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION TYPES LIKELY. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. AGAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE...BUT AVERAGE IS ABOVE FREEZING NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AM BEFORE THE STORM MOVES NE.
RIDGING ALOFT WITH WAA AT MID LEVELS. OVERRUNNING PRECIP STARTS AS
SNOW TUESDAY AFTN AND EVE. THE GFS IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS FASTER
THAN THE EURO. TUESDAY OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS GO ABOVE 0C SO
CHANGEOVER TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN. WARM AIR HEADS TO SURFACE
WEDNESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN EVERYWHERE. THE STORM
TRACK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST 2 OR 3 DAYS. MOVING NE INTO SE
ONTARIO WED AM. COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH WED PM CHANGING THE PRECIP
TO SNOW.

CAA THU NGT AND FRIDAY SO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY SO DRYING ESPECIALLY NE PA. GFS
AND EURO AGREE ON A WEAK CLIPPER MOVING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA
FRIDAY NGT WHICH MAY BRUSH THE NY ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCANT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IN VICINITY
OF KSYR-KRME BUT STILL VFR. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES KRME LATER THIS EVENING...BUT WITH IT BEING JUST A
POSSIBILITY AND NOT A LIKELIHOOD...I HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE
TAF /EVEN IF IT OCCURS...MINOR IF ANY RESTRICTION WOULD RESULT/.
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT W OR
NW DAYTIME HOURS OF SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT TO RAIN WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...HEDEN/TAC
AVIATION...MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 272256
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
556 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD DRY WEATHER
TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAND OF CLOUDS PERSISTS OVER THE SYRACUSE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES AT TIMES... WHILE ANOTHER BAND IS LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO. BOTH OF THESE BANDS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST TOWARD NY AND
PENNSYLVANIA. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BELOW ZERO IN MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. NOTICED THAT TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE NORTHEAST RIM OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER MICHIGAN WERE QUITE
COLD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD ZERO TO -20 READINGS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THAT STATE. MOS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOWS
NEAR ZERO TONIGHT... BIT OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS COLDER AND BASED ON
CURRENT CONDITIONS BELIEVE THAT THE COLDER FORECAST IS PROBABLY
BETTER. HAVE BASICALLY KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING FOR
READINGS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO IN WARMER
AREAS... TO AS LOW AS -10 TO -15 IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT... WITH WIND CHILLS BASICALLY RUNNING ABOUT
THE SAME AS THE TEMPERATURE.

SATURDAY WILL BE A SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE
AREA. AFTER A VERY COLD START TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY RISE TO
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY... WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT SOME CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT EXPECT LOWEST TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE EAST WITH WIDESPREAD BELOW READINGS.
IN THE WEST TEMPERATURES MAY FALL TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE ZERO IN
THE EVENING... THEN LEVEL OUT OR MAYBE EVEN RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS NY
AND PA LATER SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY... WITH SNOW PROBABLY DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND`S EVENT... AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SIMILAR SNOW AMOUNTS... WITH MAXIMUM VALUES IN
THE SYRACUSE AREA EAST TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND SMALLEST AMOUNTS NORTHEAST OF HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY WHERE SW FLOW MAY
DOWNSLOPE OFF OF THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT THIS PATTERN AND GIVEN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL TIMES
THIS YEAR AND PARTICULARLY LAST WEEKEND WE ARE INCLINED TO BELIEVE
THIS SCENARIO.  BASICALLY EXPECTING A 2 TO 5 INCH SNOW EVENT FOR
MOST AREAS... WITH AGAIN LOWEST AMOUNTS NORTHEAST OF HIGHER
TERRAIN AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND POSSIBLY
SYRACUSE.

STEADIER SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BACK DOWN TO
AROUND -15 SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON SO SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE. WITH
THE FLOW FROM 300-310 DEGREES EXPECTING MULTIBANDS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. WITH A SHORT FETCH AND ICE COVER OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
ONTARIO EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE
SYRACUSE AREA SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THROUGH THE EASTERN FINGER
LAKES AREA... WITH UP TO A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES TRANSITORY.
POTENT STORM FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION TYPES LIKELY. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. AGAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE...BUT AVERAGE IS ABOVE FREEZING NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AM BEFORE THE STORM MOVES NE.
RIDGING ALOFT WITH WAA AT MID LEVELS. OVERRUNNING PRECIP STARTS AS
SNOW TUESDAY AFTN AND EVE. THE GFS IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS FASTER
THAN THE EURO. TUESDAY OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS GO ABOVE 0C SO
CHANGEOVER TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN. WARM AIR HEADS TO SURFACE
WEDNESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN EVERYWHERE. THE STORM
TRACK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST 2 OR 3 DAYS. MOVING NE INTO SE
ONTARIO WED AM. COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH WED PM CHANGING THE PRECIP
TO SNOW.

CAA THU NGT AND FRIDAY SO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY SO DRYING ESPECIALLY NE PA. GFS
AND EURO AGREE ON A WEAK CLIPPER MOVING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA
FRIDAY NGT WHICH MAY BRUSH THE NY ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCANT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IN VICINITY
OF KSYR-KRME BUT STILL VFR. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES KRME LATER THIS EVENING...BUT WITH IT BEING JUST A
POSSIBILITY AND NOT A LIKELIHOOD...I HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE
TAF /EVEN IF IT OCCURS...MINOR IF ANY RESTRICTION WOULD RESULT/.
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT W OR
NW DAYTIME HOURS OF SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT TO RAIN WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...HEDEN/TAC
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 272256
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
556 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD DRY WEATHER
TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAND OF CLOUDS PERSISTS OVER THE SYRACUSE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES AT TIMES... WHILE ANOTHER BAND IS LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO. BOTH OF THESE BANDS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST TOWARD NY AND
PENNSYLVANIA. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BELOW ZERO IN MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. NOTICED THAT TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE NORTHEAST RIM OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER MICHIGAN WERE QUITE
COLD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD ZERO TO -20 READINGS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THAT STATE. MOS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOWS
NEAR ZERO TONIGHT... BIT OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS COLDER AND BASED ON
CURRENT CONDITIONS BELIEVE THAT THE COLDER FORECAST IS PROBABLY
BETTER. HAVE BASICALLY KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING FOR
READINGS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO IN WARMER
AREAS... TO AS LOW AS -10 TO -15 IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT... WITH WIND CHILLS BASICALLY RUNNING ABOUT
THE SAME AS THE TEMPERATURE.

SATURDAY WILL BE A SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE
AREA. AFTER A VERY COLD START TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY RISE TO
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY... WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT SOME CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT EXPECT LOWEST TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE EAST WITH WIDESPREAD BELOW READINGS.
IN THE WEST TEMPERATURES MAY FALL TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE ZERO IN
THE EVENING... THEN LEVEL OUT OR MAYBE EVEN RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS NY
AND PA LATER SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY... WITH SNOW PROBABLY DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND`S EVENT... AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SIMILAR SNOW AMOUNTS... WITH MAXIMUM VALUES IN
THE SYRACUSE AREA EAST TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND SMALLEST AMOUNTS NORTHEAST OF HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY WHERE SW FLOW MAY
DOWNSLOPE OFF OF THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT THIS PATTERN AND GIVEN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL TIMES
THIS YEAR AND PARTICULARLY LAST WEEKEND WE ARE INCLINED TO BELIEVE
THIS SCENARIO.  BASICALLY EXPECTING A 2 TO 5 INCH SNOW EVENT FOR
MOST AREAS... WITH AGAIN LOWEST AMOUNTS NORTHEAST OF HIGHER
TERRAIN AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND POSSIBLY
SYRACUSE.

STEADIER SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BACK DOWN TO
AROUND -15 SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON SO SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE. WITH
THE FLOW FROM 300-310 DEGREES EXPECTING MULTIBANDS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. WITH A SHORT FETCH AND ICE COVER OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
ONTARIO EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE
SYRACUSE AREA SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THROUGH THE EASTERN FINGER
LAKES AREA... WITH UP TO A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES TRANSITORY.
POTENT STORM FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION TYPES LIKELY. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. AGAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE...BUT AVERAGE IS ABOVE FREEZING NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AM BEFORE THE STORM MOVES NE.
RIDGING ALOFT WITH WAA AT MID LEVELS. OVERRUNNING PRECIP STARTS AS
SNOW TUESDAY AFTN AND EVE. THE GFS IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS FASTER
THAN THE EURO. TUESDAY OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS GO ABOVE 0C SO
CHANGEOVER TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN. WARM AIR HEADS TO SURFACE
WEDNESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN EVERYWHERE. THE STORM
TRACK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST 2 OR 3 DAYS. MOVING NE INTO SE
ONTARIO WED AM. COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH WED PM CHANGING THE PRECIP
TO SNOW.

CAA THU NGT AND FRIDAY SO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY SO DRYING ESPECIALLY NE PA. GFS
AND EURO AGREE ON A WEAK CLIPPER MOVING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA
FRIDAY NGT WHICH MAY BRUSH THE NY ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCANT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IN VICINITY
OF KSYR-KRME BUT STILL VFR. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES KRME LATER THIS EVENING...BUT WITH IT BEING JUST A
POSSIBILITY AND NOT A LIKELIHOOD...I HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE
TAF /EVEN IF IT OCCURS...MINOR IF ANY RESTRICTION WOULD RESULT/.
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT W OR
NW DAYTIME HOURS OF SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT TO RAIN WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...HEDEN/TAC
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 272256
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
556 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD DRY WEATHER
TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAND OF CLOUDS PERSISTS OVER THE SYRACUSE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES AT TIMES... WHILE ANOTHER BAND IS LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO. BOTH OF THESE BANDS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST TOWARD NY AND
PENNSYLVANIA. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BELOW ZERO IN MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. NOTICED THAT TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE NORTHEAST RIM OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER MICHIGAN WERE QUITE
COLD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD ZERO TO -20 READINGS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THAT STATE. MOS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOWS
NEAR ZERO TONIGHT... BIT OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS COLDER AND BASED ON
CURRENT CONDITIONS BELIEVE THAT THE COLDER FORECAST IS PROBABLY
BETTER. HAVE BASICALLY KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING FOR
READINGS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO IN WARMER
AREAS... TO AS LOW AS -10 TO -15 IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT... WITH WIND CHILLS BASICALLY RUNNING ABOUT
THE SAME AS THE TEMPERATURE.

SATURDAY WILL BE A SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE
AREA. AFTER A VERY COLD START TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY RISE TO
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY... WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT SOME CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT EXPECT LOWEST TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE EAST WITH WIDESPREAD BELOW READINGS.
IN THE WEST TEMPERATURES MAY FALL TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE ZERO IN
THE EVENING... THEN LEVEL OUT OR MAYBE EVEN RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS NY
AND PA LATER SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY... WITH SNOW PROBABLY DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND`S EVENT... AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SIMILAR SNOW AMOUNTS... WITH MAXIMUM VALUES IN
THE SYRACUSE AREA EAST TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND SMALLEST AMOUNTS NORTHEAST OF HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY WHERE SW FLOW MAY
DOWNSLOPE OFF OF THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT THIS PATTERN AND GIVEN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL TIMES
THIS YEAR AND PARTICULARLY LAST WEEKEND WE ARE INCLINED TO BELIEVE
THIS SCENARIO.  BASICALLY EXPECTING A 2 TO 5 INCH SNOW EVENT FOR
MOST AREAS... WITH AGAIN LOWEST AMOUNTS NORTHEAST OF HIGHER
TERRAIN AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND POSSIBLY
SYRACUSE.

STEADIER SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BACK DOWN TO
AROUND -15 SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON SO SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE. WITH
THE FLOW FROM 300-310 DEGREES EXPECTING MULTIBANDS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. WITH A SHORT FETCH AND ICE COVER OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
ONTARIO EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE
SYRACUSE AREA SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THROUGH THE EASTERN FINGER
LAKES AREA... WITH UP TO A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES TRANSITORY.
POTENT STORM FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION TYPES LIKELY. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. AGAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE...BUT AVERAGE IS ABOVE FREEZING NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AM BEFORE THE STORM MOVES NE.
RIDGING ALOFT WITH WAA AT MID LEVELS. OVERRUNNING PRECIP STARTS AS
SNOW TUESDAY AFTN AND EVE. THE GFS IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS FASTER
THAN THE EURO. TUESDAY OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS GO ABOVE 0C SO
CHANGEOVER TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN. WARM AIR HEADS TO SURFACE
WEDNESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN EVERYWHERE. THE STORM
TRACK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST 2 OR 3 DAYS. MOVING NE INTO SE
ONTARIO WED AM. COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH WED PM CHANGING THE PRECIP
TO SNOW.

CAA THU NGT AND FRIDAY SO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY SO DRYING ESPECIALLY NE PA. GFS
AND EURO AGREE ON A WEAK CLIPPER MOVING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA
FRIDAY NGT WHICH MAY BRUSH THE NY ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCANT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IN VICINITY
OF KSYR-KRME BUT STILL VFR. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES KRME LATER THIS EVENING...BUT WITH IT BEING JUST A
POSSIBILITY AND NOT A LIKELIHOOD...I HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE
TAF /EVEN IF IT OCCURS...MINOR IF ANY RESTRICTION WOULD RESULT/.
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT W OR
NW DAYTIME HOURS OF SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT TO RAIN WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...HEDEN/TAC
AVIATION...MDP






000
FXUS61 KALY 272239
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
539 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
ESPECIALLY WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH
WINDS BEING LESS THAN 5 MPH...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RIDGE IN FROM PA TOMORROW.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
18Z/28. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. CLEARING AND SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 06Z/28.  THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE SKIES MAINLY CLEAR LATE TOMORROW MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR SOME SCT CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W/NW TO NE AT 4-9 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AT 5 KTS TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 KTS OR SO WILL PREVAIL LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 272239
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
539 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
ESPECIALLY WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH
WINDS BEING LESS THAN 5 MPH...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RIDGE IN FROM PA TOMORROW.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
18Z/28. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. CLEARING AND SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 06Z/28.  THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE SKIES MAINLY CLEAR LATE TOMORROW MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR SOME SCT CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W/NW TO NE AT 4-9 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AT 5 KTS TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 KTS OR SO WILL PREVAIL LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 272239
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
539 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
ESPECIALLY WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH
WINDS BEING LESS THAN 5 MPH...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RIDGE IN FROM PA TOMORROW.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
18Z/28. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. CLEARING AND SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 06Z/28.  THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE SKIES MAINLY CLEAR LATE TOMORROW MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR SOME SCT CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W/NW TO NE AT 4-9 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AT 5 KTS TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 KTS OR SO WILL PREVAIL LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 272239
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
539 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
ESPECIALLY WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH
WINDS BEING LESS THAN 5 MPH...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RIDGE IN FROM PA TOMORROW.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
18Z/28. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. CLEARING AND SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 06Z/28.  THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE SKIES MAINLY CLEAR LATE TOMORROW MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR SOME SCT CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W/NW TO NE AT 4-9 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AT 5 KTS TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 KTS OR SO WILL PREVAIL LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 272104
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
ESPECIALLY WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH
WINDS BEING LESS THAN 5 MPH...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RIDGE IN FROM PA TOMORROW.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
18Z/28. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. CLEARING AND SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 06Z/28.  THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE SKIES MAINLY CLEAR LATE TOMORROW MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR SOME SCT CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W/NW TO NE AT 4-9 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AT 5 KTS TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 KTS OR SO WILL PREVAIL LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 272104
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
ESPECIALLY WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH
WINDS BEING LESS THAN 5 MPH...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RIDGE IN FROM PA TOMORROW.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
18Z/28. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. CLEARING AND SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 06Z/28.  THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE SKIES MAINLY CLEAR LATE TOMORROW MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR SOME SCT CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W/NW TO NE AT 4-9 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AT 5 KTS TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 KTS OR SO WILL PREVAIL LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 272103
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
403 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
ESPECIALLY WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH
WINDS BEING LESS THAN 5 MPH...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RIDGE IN FROM PA TOMORROW.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
18Z/28. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. CLEARING AND SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 06Z/28.  THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE SKIES MAINLY CLEAR LATE TOMORROW MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR SOME SCT CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W/NW TO NE AT 4-9 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AT 5 KTS TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 KTS OR SO WILL PREVAIL LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/FRUGIS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 272103
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
403 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
ESPECIALLY WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH
WINDS BEING LESS THAN 5 MPH...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED.

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RIDGE IN FROM PA TOMORROW.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
18Z/28. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. CLEARING AND SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 06Z/28.  THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE SKIES MAINLY CLEAR LATE TOMORROW MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR SOME SCT CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W/NW TO NE AT 4-9 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AT 5 KTS TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 KTS OR SO WILL PREVAIL LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/FRUGIS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KOKX 272059
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN ON TUESDAY BEFORE
YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN A CLEAR SKY. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AND FOR SOME SUBURBAN AREAS...CALM AT TIMES. THIS ALONG
WITH A DECENT SNOW PACK WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND ZERO
FOR SOME NORTHERN SUBURBS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE REST
OF THE SUBURBS. THE CITY AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO 10-15. BECAUSE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT IN THE
CITY...WIND CHILLS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE ZERO THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO
NO SPS PLANNED FOR THE CITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SUNNY TO START ON SATURDAY...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME MID-HIGH
CLOUDS FILTERING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL LIMIT THE MIXING HEIGHT BY
ABOUT 25MB VERSUS TODAY...AND WITH A SIMILAR TEMP EXPECTED AT THE
TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE FACTOR...HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND
MATCHES THIS THINKING. THIS IS ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN
NORMAL.

ANY CLOUD COVER REMAINING BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD SHIFT OUT
TO THE EAST...THEN A PERIOD OF CLEAR CONDITIONS BEFORE MID-HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO RETURN LATE AT NIGHT. THE LACK OF CAA AND THE LATE
NIGHT CLOUD INCREASE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS
THEY WILL TONIGHT IN SPITE OF MORE WIDESPREAD CALM WINDS.
STILL...LOWS AVERAGING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ON BOARD FOR A CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN WITH THE PERSISTENT HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA FINALLY BREAKING DOWN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SPLIT CONFLUENT
FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. BY MID WEEK...RIDGING
BEGINS TO EXPAND NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES...AND A
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES.

THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF FRONTAL
SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA...THE FIRST SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THEN
ANOTHER TUE NIGHT INTO THU. THE LATTER OF WHICH DIFFERS IN THE
SYSTEM PROGRESSION AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES
TO BE ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. PREFERENCE WAS TO TAKE A
MIDDLE ROAD SOLUTION...WHICH IN TIMING WAS CLOSE TO THE GGEM.

THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVING LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT PRECEDED BY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. THE UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW WHICH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NAM WRF AND GGEM HINT AT A WEAK
SECONDARY LOW FORMING TO THE SOUTH SUN NIGHT. THIS MAY MAKE FOR A
CHALLENGING RAIN/SNOW LINE...WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE LI/NY METRO AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD
KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL COLD WITH A NLY FLOW AND RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN. RIGHT NOW...LOOKING FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AND A
LIGHT ICE ACCRETION TO THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS DRY OUT MON MORNING
WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR...ALBEIT WARMER THAN IN RECENT WEEKS.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO BRING OVERRUNNING PCPN TO THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THIS TIME AROUND WARMER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH THE NORTH. KEPT CHANCES OF
PCPN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WED NIGHT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TRANSITION BACK TO WINTRY PCPN WED NIGHT.

THE WEEK COMES TO AN END ON A COLD...BLUSTERY NOTE...WITH READINGS
WELL BELOW NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROF REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN OVER THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

N-NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 155-20KT POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 290-350 TRUE
(300-360 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING - BUT MAINLY AT OR TO THE RIGHT
OF 300 TRUE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT UNTIL 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 310-010 TRUE
(320-020 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
UNTIL 2Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 280-010 TRUE
(290-020 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING - BUT MAINLY AT OR TO THE RIGHT
OF 300 TRUE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT  UNTIL 2Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT UNTIL 2Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT UNTIL 2Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT UNTIL 2Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY MORNING...MVFR OR LOWER IN -SN CHANGING
TO A WINTRY MIX S TERMINALS AND -SN N TERMINALS. SE WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NW WINDS G15-25KT
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN -SN
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RAIN LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR LATE WEDNESDAY. LLWS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SWELL WILL BE DIMINISHING INTO TONIGHT...AND WITH ALL AREA BUOYS
REPORTING JUST BELOW 5 FT...WILL CANCEL THE SCA WHICH ORIGINALLY
LASTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE A LITTLE
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE
A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT ON THE OCEAN...BUT NOT JUSTIFYING ANOTHER
SCA. WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE...SO WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FALL AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES. BY SAT AFT...WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW 10 KT
AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY LATE AT NIGHT.

SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT
ON THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 272059
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN ON TUESDAY BEFORE
YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN A CLEAR SKY. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AND FOR SOME SUBURBAN AREAS...CALM AT TIMES. THIS ALONG
WITH A DECENT SNOW PACK WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND ZERO
FOR SOME NORTHERN SUBURBS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE REST
OF THE SUBURBS. THE CITY AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO 10-15. BECAUSE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT IN THE
CITY...WIND CHILLS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE ZERO THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO
NO SPS PLANNED FOR THE CITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SUNNY TO START ON SATURDAY...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME MID-HIGH
CLOUDS FILTERING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL LIMIT THE MIXING HEIGHT BY
ABOUT 25MB VERSUS TODAY...AND WITH A SIMILAR TEMP EXPECTED AT THE
TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE FACTOR...HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND
MATCHES THIS THINKING. THIS IS ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN
NORMAL.

ANY CLOUD COVER REMAINING BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD SHIFT OUT
TO THE EAST...THEN A PERIOD OF CLEAR CONDITIONS BEFORE MID-HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO RETURN LATE AT NIGHT. THE LACK OF CAA AND THE LATE
NIGHT CLOUD INCREASE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS
THEY WILL TONIGHT IN SPITE OF MORE WIDESPREAD CALM WINDS.
STILL...LOWS AVERAGING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ON BOARD FOR A CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN WITH THE PERSISTENT HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA FINALLY BREAKING DOWN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SPLIT CONFLUENT
FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. BY MID WEEK...RIDGING
BEGINS TO EXPAND NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES...AND A
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES.

THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF FRONTAL
SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA...THE FIRST SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THEN
ANOTHER TUE NIGHT INTO THU. THE LATTER OF WHICH DIFFERS IN THE
SYSTEM PROGRESSION AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES
TO BE ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. PREFERENCE WAS TO TAKE A
MIDDLE ROAD SOLUTION...WHICH IN TIMING WAS CLOSE TO THE GGEM.

THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVING LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT PRECEDED BY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. THE UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW WHICH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NAM WRF AND GGEM HINT AT A WEAK
SECONDARY LOW FORMING TO THE SOUTH SUN NIGHT. THIS MAY MAKE FOR A
CHALLENGING RAIN/SNOW LINE...WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE LI/NY METRO AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD
KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL COLD WITH A NLY FLOW AND RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN. RIGHT NOW...LOOKING FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AND A
LIGHT ICE ACCRETION TO THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS DRY OUT MON MORNING
WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR...ALBEIT WARMER THAN IN RECENT WEEKS.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO BRING OVERRUNNING PCPN TO THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THIS TIME AROUND WARMER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH THE NORTH. KEPT CHANCES OF
PCPN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WED NIGHT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TRANSITION BACK TO WINTRY PCPN WED NIGHT.

THE WEEK COMES TO AN END ON A COLD...BLUSTERY NOTE...WITH READINGS
WELL BELOW NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROF REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN OVER THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

N-NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 155-20KT POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 290-350 TRUE
(300-360 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING - BUT MAINLY AT OR TO THE RIGHT
OF 300 TRUE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT UNTIL 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 310-010 TRUE
(320-020 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
UNTIL 2Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 280-010 TRUE
(290-020 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING - BUT MAINLY AT OR TO THE RIGHT
OF 300 TRUE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT  UNTIL 2Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT UNTIL 2Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT UNTIL 2Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT UNTIL 2Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY MORNING...MVFR OR LOWER IN -SN CHANGING
TO A WINTRY MIX S TERMINALS AND -SN N TERMINALS. SE WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NW WINDS G15-25KT
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN -SN
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RAIN LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR LATE WEDNESDAY. LLWS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SWELL WILL BE DIMINISHING INTO TONIGHT...AND WITH ALL AREA BUOYS
REPORTING JUST BELOW 5 FT...WILL CANCEL THE SCA WHICH ORIGINALLY
LASTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE A LITTLE
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE
A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT ON THE OCEAN...BUT NOT JUSTIFYING ANOTHER
SCA. WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE...SO WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FALL AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES. BY SAT AFT...WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW 10 KT
AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY LATE AT NIGHT.

SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT
ON THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 272059
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN ON TUESDAY BEFORE
YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN A CLEAR SKY. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AND FOR SOME SUBURBAN AREAS...CALM AT TIMES. THIS ALONG
WITH A DECENT SNOW PACK WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND ZERO
FOR SOME NORTHERN SUBURBS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE REST
OF THE SUBURBS. THE CITY AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO 10-15. BECAUSE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT IN THE
CITY...WIND CHILLS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE ZERO THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO
NO SPS PLANNED FOR THE CITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SUNNY TO START ON SATURDAY...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME MID-HIGH
CLOUDS FILTERING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL LIMIT THE MIXING HEIGHT BY
ABOUT 25MB VERSUS TODAY...AND WITH A SIMILAR TEMP EXPECTED AT THE
TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE FACTOR...HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND
MATCHES THIS THINKING. THIS IS ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN
NORMAL.

ANY CLOUD COVER REMAINING BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD SHIFT OUT
TO THE EAST...THEN A PERIOD OF CLEAR CONDITIONS BEFORE MID-HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO RETURN LATE AT NIGHT. THE LACK OF CAA AND THE LATE
NIGHT CLOUD INCREASE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS
THEY WILL TONIGHT IN SPITE OF MORE WIDESPREAD CALM WINDS.
STILL...LOWS AVERAGING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ON BOARD FOR A CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN WITH THE PERSISTENT HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA FINALLY BREAKING DOWN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SPLIT CONFLUENT
FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. BY MID WEEK...RIDGING
BEGINS TO EXPAND NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES...AND A
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES.

THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF FRONTAL
SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA...THE FIRST SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THEN
ANOTHER TUE NIGHT INTO THU. THE LATTER OF WHICH DIFFERS IN THE
SYSTEM PROGRESSION AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES
TO BE ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. PREFERENCE WAS TO TAKE A
MIDDLE ROAD SOLUTION...WHICH IN TIMING WAS CLOSE TO THE GGEM.

THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVING LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT PRECEDED BY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. THE UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW WHICH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NAM WRF AND GGEM HINT AT A WEAK
SECONDARY LOW FORMING TO THE SOUTH SUN NIGHT. THIS MAY MAKE FOR A
CHALLENGING RAIN/SNOW LINE...WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE LI/NY METRO AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD
KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL COLD WITH A NLY FLOW AND RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN. RIGHT NOW...LOOKING FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AND A
LIGHT ICE ACCRETION TO THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS DRY OUT MON MORNING
WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR...ALBEIT WARMER THAN IN RECENT WEEKS.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO BRING OVERRUNNING PCPN TO THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THIS TIME AROUND WARMER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH THE NORTH. KEPT CHANCES OF
PCPN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WED NIGHT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TRANSITION BACK TO WINTRY PCPN WED NIGHT.

THE WEEK COMES TO AN END ON A COLD...BLUSTERY NOTE...WITH READINGS
WELL BELOW NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROF REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN OVER THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

N-NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 155-20KT POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 290-350 TRUE
(300-360 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING - BUT MAINLY AT OR TO THE RIGHT
OF 300 TRUE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT UNTIL 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 310-010 TRUE
(320-020 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
UNTIL 2Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 280-010 TRUE
(290-020 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING - BUT MAINLY AT OR TO THE RIGHT
OF 300 TRUE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT  UNTIL 2Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT UNTIL 2Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT UNTIL 2Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT UNTIL 2Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY MORNING...MVFR OR LOWER IN -SN CHANGING
TO A WINTRY MIX S TERMINALS AND -SN N TERMINALS. SE WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NW WINDS G15-25KT
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN -SN
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RAIN LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR LATE WEDNESDAY. LLWS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SWELL WILL BE DIMINISHING INTO TONIGHT...AND WITH ALL AREA BUOYS
REPORTING JUST BELOW 5 FT...WILL CANCEL THE SCA WHICH ORIGINALLY
LASTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE A LITTLE
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE
A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT ON THE OCEAN...BUT NOT JUSTIFYING ANOTHER
SCA. WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE...SO WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FALL AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES. BY SAT AFT...WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW 10 KT
AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY LATE AT NIGHT.

SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT
ON THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 272059
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN ON TUESDAY BEFORE
YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN A CLEAR SKY. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER THROUGH
THE NIGHT...AND FOR SOME SUBURBAN AREAS...CALM AT TIMES. THIS ALONG
WITH A DECENT SNOW PACK WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND ZERO
FOR SOME NORTHERN SUBURBS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE REST
OF THE SUBURBS. THE CITY AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO 10-15. BECAUSE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT IN THE
CITY...WIND CHILLS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE ZERO THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO
NO SPS PLANNED FOR THE CITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SUNNY TO START ON SATURDAY...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME MID-HIGH
CLOUDS FILTERING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL LIMIT THE MIXING HEIGHT BY
ABOUT 25MB VERSUS TODAY...AND WITH A SIMILAR TEMP EXPECTED AT THE
TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE FACTOR...HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. A NAM/MAV MOS BLEND
MATCHES THIS THINKING. THIS IS ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN
NORMAL.

ANY CLOUD COVER REMAINING BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD SHIFT OUT
TO THE EAST...THEN A PERIOD OF CLEAR CONDITIONS BEFORE MID-HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO RETURN LATE AT NIGHT. THE LACK OF CAA AND THE LATE
NIGHT CLOUD INCREASE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS
THEY WILL TONIGHT IN SPITE OF MORE WIDESPREAD CALM WINDS.
STILL...LOWS AVERAGING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ON BOARD FOR A CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN WITH THE PERSISTENT HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA FINALLY BREAKING DOWN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SPLIT CONFLUENT
FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. BY MID WEEK...RIDGING
BEGINS TO EXPAND NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES...AND A
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES.

THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF FRONTAL
SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA...THE FIRST SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THEN
ANOTHER TUE NIGHT INTO THU. THE LATTER OF WHICH DIFFERS IN THE
SYSTEM PROGRESSION AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES
TO BE ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. PREFERENCE WAS TO TAKE A
MIDDLE ROAD SOLUTION...WHICH IN TIMING WAS CLOSE TO THE GGEM.

THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVING LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT PRECEDED BY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. THE UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW WHICH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NAM WRF AND GGEM HINT AT A WEAK
SECONDARY LOW FORMING TO THE SOUTH SUN NIGHT. THIS MAY MAKE FOR A
CHALLENGING RAIN/SNOW LINE...WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE LI/NY METRO AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD
KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL COLD WITH A NLY FLOW AND RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN. RIGHT NOW...LOOKING FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AND A
LIGHT ICE ACCRETION TO THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS DRY OUT MON MORNING
WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR...ALBEIT WARMER THAN IN RECENT WEEKS.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO BRING OVERRUNNING PCPN TO THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THIS TIME AROUND WARMER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH THE NORTH. KEPT CHANCES OF
PCPN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WED NIGHT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TRANSITION BACK TO WINTRY PCPN WED NIGHT.

THE WEEK COMES TO AN END ON A COLD...BLUSTERY NOTE...WITH READINGS
WELL BELOW NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROF REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN OVER THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

N-NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 155-20KT POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 290-350 TRUE
(300-360 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING - BUT MAINLY AT OR TO THE RIGHT
OF 300 TRUE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT UNTIL 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 310-010 TRUE
(320-020 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
UNTIL 2Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 280-010 TRUE
(290-020 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING - BUT MAINLY AT OR TO THE RIGHT
OF 300 TRUE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT  UNTIL 2Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT UNTIL 2Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT UNTIL 2Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT UNTIL 2Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY MORNING...MVFR OR LOWER IN -SN CHANGING
TO A WINTRY MIX S TERMINALS AND -SN N TERMINALS. SE WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NW WINDS G15-25KT
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN -SN
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RAIN LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR LATE WEDNESDAY. LLWS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SWELL WILL BE DIMINISHING INTO TONIGHT...AND WITH ALL AREA BUOYS
REPORTING JUST BELOW 5 FT...WILL CANCEL THE SCA WHICH ORIGINALLY
LASTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE A LITTLE
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE
A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT ON THE OCEAN...BUT NOT JUSTIFYING ANOTHER
SCA. WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE...SO WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FALL AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES. BY SAT AFT...WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW 10 KT
AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY LATE AT NIGHT.

SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT
ON THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW






000
FXUS61 KBUF 272056
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
356 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW
MOVING INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER STORM WILL APPROACH ON THE HEELS
OF THE SUNDAY STORM AND BRING A POTENTIAL FOR AN ICY MIX AND
STRONG WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SETTLE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO HAS
NOW SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE AND WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT
DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. ADDITIONAL WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF ICE
COVERED LAKE ERIE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING
ABOUT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
NUMBERS ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS
INLAND AND NEAR MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NEW MONTH OF MARCH...AND METEOROLOGICAL START OF SPRING...WILL
OPEN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AS A WINTER STORM
DEVELOPS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TRACKS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR. A LARGE PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
BE TRANSPORTED OVER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A
SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORCING WILL ONLY INITIALLY BE ISENTROPIC WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT EARLIER SUNDAY THEN FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A BROAD 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT VORT MAX ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN 850MB JET WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FALL. 12Z MODELS DO SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE NAM/ECMWF/CMC BRINGING SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY 12Z SUN AND THE GFS HOLDING BACK SNOW
TIL AFTER 18Z SUN AND SREF AS EARLY AS 9Z. THE SUITE OF MODEL QPF
HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH A QUARTER TO HALF
INCH OF QPF. WARMER PROFILES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD HOLD
SNOW RATIOS DOWN TO AN AVERAGE OF 12:1 DURING MUCH OF THE EVENT
UNTIL COLDER AIR CIRCULATES IN BEHIND THE SURFACE WAVE LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE ALL COUNTIES SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...THE SOUTHERN TIER HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF 6 OF MORE
INCHES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
FORCING CONTRIBUTED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH COVERING THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL CLIMB TOWARD 30 THEN ONLY SLIP INTO THE 20S
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW AND CLOUD COVER. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
DEFORMATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW ON MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE CHANCES OF SOME LIMITED SNOW TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM TOWARD THE UPPER 20S EARLY THEN FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE STORM.
PACIFIC BASED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND
THE DEPARTING STORM WITH CLEARING SKIES GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD ADVECTION...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE A RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 10.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JUST AS WE ARE FINISHED CLEARING THE DRIVEWAYS AND SIDEWALKS FROM
SUNDAYS STORM...ANOTHER STRONGER AND WARMER STORM WILL QUICKLY
APPROACH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR AN ICY MIX
FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WITH
ATTENDANT VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A FULL
LATITUDE WESTERN STATES TROUGH TUESDAY TRIGGERING A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

WHILE SNOW LOOKS TO BEGIN ARRIVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OVERRIDE COLDER SUB-FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT PRODUCING A WARM NOSE
IN VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SNOW TO CHANGE
TO AN ICY MIX OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SECTIONS POSSIBLY EVEN GOING OVER
TO PLAIN RAIN AS TEMPERATURES PUSH TOWARD 40 DEGREES.

THE MATURE LOW WILL SHIFT JUST NORTHWEST OF WESTERN NEW YORK ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE
TRAILING STRONG WINDS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF PLAIN RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE RAIN WILL
MIX WITH SNOW AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST. THE TRACK OF THIS DEEPENING
LOW CUTTING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRONG
WINDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE
FALL-RISE COUPLET CROSSING DIRECTLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK INDICATING THE START OF THE DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN THE COMING
DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED HIGH WORKING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL STATES. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY DRY WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHER WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...BECOMING WINDY. MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
REGIONS.

THE COLD WEATHER HAS CAUSED CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. OUTSIDE OF FAST FLOWING
AREAS...VIRTUALLY ALL THE CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE FROZEN WITH A VERY
THICK ICE PACK IN PLACE. ICE EXCEEDS A FOOT IN MANY SLOW FLOWING
AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST AND NORTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PATH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA...POSSIBLY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. AT THIS
TIME...AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN MAY CAUSE
CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP AND POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/SMITH
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN
HYDROLOGY...FRANKLIN
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 272056
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
356 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW
MOVING INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER STORM WILL APPROACH ON THE HEELS
OF THE SUNDAY STORM AND BRING A POTENTIAL FOR AN ICY MIX AND
STRONG WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SETTLE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO HAS
NOW SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE AND WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT
DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. ADDITIONAL WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF ICE
COVERED LAKE ERIE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING
ABOUT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
NUMBERS ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS
INLAND AND NEAR MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NEW MONTH OF MARCH...AND METEOROLOGICAL START OF SPRING...WILL
OPEN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AS A WINTER STORM
DEVELOPS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TRACKS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR. A LARGE PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
BE TRANSPORTED OVER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A
SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORCING WILL ONLY INITIALLY BE ISENTROPIC WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT EARLIER SUNDAY THEN FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A BROAD 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT VORT MAX ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN 850MB JET WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FALL. 12Z MODELS DO SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE NAM/ECMWF/CMC BRINGING SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY 12Z SUN AND THE GFS HOLDING BACK SNOW
TIL AFTER 18Z SUN AND SREF AS EARLY AS 9Z. THE SUITE OF MODEL QPF
HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH A QUARTER TO HALF
INCH OF QPF. WARMER PROFILES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD HOLD
SNOW RATIOS DOWN TO AN AVERAGE OF 12:1 DURING MUCH OF THE EVENT
UNTIL COLDER AIR CIRCULATES IN BEHIND THE SURFACE WAVE LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE ALL COUNTIES SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...THE SOUTHERN TIER HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF 6 OF MORE
INCHES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
FORCING CONTRIBUTED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH COVERING THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL CLIMB TOWARD 30 THEN ONLY SLIP INTO THE 20S
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW AND CLOUD COVER. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
DEFORMATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW ON MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE CHANCES OF SOME LIMITED SNOW TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM TOWARD THE UPPER 20S EARLY THEN FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE STORM.
PACIFIC BASED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND
THE DEPARTING STORM WITH CLEARING SKIES GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD ADVECTION...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE A RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 10.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JUST AS WE ARE FINISHED CLEARING THE DRIVEWAYS AND SIDEWALKS FROM
SUNDAYS STORM...ANOTHER STRONGER AND WARMER STORM WILL QUICKLY
APPROACH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR AN ICY MIX
FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WITH
ATTENDANT VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A FULL
LATITUDE WESTERN STATES TROUGH TUESDAY TRIGGERING A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

WHILE SNOW LOOKS TO BEGIN ARRIVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OVERRIDE COLDER SUB-FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT PRODUCING A WARM NOSE
IN VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SNOW TO CHANGE
TO AN ICY MIX OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SECTIONS POSSIBLY EVEN GOING OVER
TO PLAIN RAIN AS TEMPERATURES PUSH TOWARD 40 DEGREES.

THE MATURE LOW WILL SHIFT JUST NORTHWEST OF WESTERN NEW YORK ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE
TRAILING STRONG WINDS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF PLAIN RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE RAIN WILL
MIX WITH SNOW AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST. THE TRACK OF THIS DEEPENING
LOW CUTTING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRONG
WINDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE
FALL-RISE COUPLET CROSSING DIRECTLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK INDICATING THE START OF THE DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN THE COMING
DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED HIGH WORKING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL STATES. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY DRY WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHER WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...BECOMING WINDY. MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
REGIONS.

THE COLD WEATHER HAS CAUSED CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. OUTSIDE OF FAST FLOWING
AREAS...VIRTUALLY ALL THE CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE FROZEN WITH A VERY
THICK ICE PACK IN PLACE. ICE EXCEEDS A FOOT IN MANY SLOW FLOWING
AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST AND NORTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PATH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA...POSSIBLY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. AT THIS
TIME...AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN MAY CAUSE
CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP AND POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/SMITH
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN
HYDROLOGY...FRANKLIN
CLIMATE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 272056
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
356 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW
MOVING INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER STORM WILL APPROACH ON THE HEELS
OF THE SUNDAY STORM AND BRING A POTENTIAL FOR AN ICY MIX AND
STRONG WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SETTLE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO HAS
NOW SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE AND WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT
DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. ADDITIONAL WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF ICE
COVERED LAKE ERIE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING
ABOUT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
NUMBERS ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS
INLAND AND NEAR MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NEW MONTH OF MARCH...AND METEOROLOGICAL START OF SPRING...WILL
OPEN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AS A WINTER STORM
DEVELOPS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TRACKS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR. A LARGE PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
BE TRANSPORTED OVER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A
SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORCING WILL ONLY INITIALLY BE ISENTROPIC WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT EARLIER SUNDAY THEN FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A BROAD 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT VORT MAX ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN 850MB JET WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FALL. 12Z MODELS DO SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE NAM/ECMWF/CMC BRINGING SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY 12Z SUN AND THE GFS HOLDING BACK SNOW
TIL AFTER 18Z SUN AND SREF AS EARLY AS 9Z. THE SUITE OF MODEL QPF
HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH A QUARTER TO HALF
INCH OF QPF. WARMER PROFILES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD HOLD
SNOW RATIOS DOWN TO AN AVERAGE OF 12:1 DURING MUCH OF THE EVENT
UNTIL COLDER AIR CIRCULATES IN BEHIND THE SURFACE WAVE LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE ALL COUNTIES SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...THE SOUTHERN TIER HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF 6 OF MORE
INCHES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
FORCING CONTRIBUTED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH COVERING THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL CLIMB TOWARD 30 THEN ONLY SLIP INTO THE 20S
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW AND CLOUD COVER. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
DEFORMATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW ON MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE CHANCES OF SOME LIMITED SNOW TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM TOWARD THE UPPER 20S EARLY THEN FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE STORM.
PACIFIC BASED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND
THE DEPARTING STORM WITH CLEARING SKIES GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD ADVECTION...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE A RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 10.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JUST AS WE ARE FINISHED CLEARING THE DRIVEWAYS AND SIDEWALKS FROM
SUNDAYS STORM...ANOTHER STRONGER AND WARMER STORM WILL QUICKLY
APPROACH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR AN ICY MIX
FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WITH
ATTENDANT VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A FULL
LATITUDE WESTERN STATES TROUGH TUESDAY TRIGGERING A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

WHILE SNOW LOOKS TO BEGIN ARRIVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OVERRIDE COLDER SUB-FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT PRODUCING A WARM NOSE
IN VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SNOW TO CHANGE
TO AN ICY MIX OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SECTIONS POSSIBLY EVEN GOING OVER
TO PLAIN RAIN AS TEMPERATURES PUSH TOWARD 40 DEGREES.

THE MATURE LOW WILL SHIFT JUST NORTHWEST OF WESTERN NEW YORK ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE
TRAILING STRONG WINDS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF PLAIN RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE RAIN WILL
MIX WITH SNOW AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST. THE TRACK OF THIS DEEPENING
LOW CUTTING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRONG
WINDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE
FALL-RISE COUPLET CROSSING DIRECTLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK INDICATING THE START OF THE DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN THE COMING
DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED HIGH WORKING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL STATES. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY DRY WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHER WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...BECOMING WINDY. MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
REGIONS.

THE COLD WEATHER HAS CAUSED CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. OUTSIDE OF FAST FLOWING
AREAS...VIRTUALLY ALL THE CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE FROZEN WITH A VERY
THICK ICE PACK IN PLACE. ICE EXCEEDS A FOOT IN MANY SLOW FLOWING
AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST AND NORTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PATH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA...POSSIBLY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. AT THIS
TIME...AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN MAY CAUSE
CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP AND POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/SMITH
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN
HYDROLOGY...FRANKLIN
CLIMATE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 272056
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
356 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW
MOVING INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER STORM WILL APPROACH ON THE HEELS
OF THE SUNDAY STORM AND BRING A POTENTIAL FOR AN ICY MIX AND
STRONG WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SETTLE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO HAS
NOW SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE AND WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT
DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. ADDITIONAL WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF ICE
COVERED LAKE ERIE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING
ABOUT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
NUMBERS ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS
INLAND AND NEAR MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NEW MONTH OF MARCH...AND METEOROLOGICAL START OF SPRING...WILL
OPEN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AS A WINTER STORM
DEVELOPS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TRACKS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR. A LARGE PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
BE TRANSPORTED OVER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A
SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORCING WILL ONLY INITIALLY BE ISENTROPIC WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT EARLIER SUNDAY THEN FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A BROAD 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT VORT MAX ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN 850MB JET WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FALL. 12Z MODELS DO SHOW SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE NAM/ECMWF/CMC BRINGING SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY 12Z SUN AND THE GFS HOLDING BACK SNOW
TIL AFTER 18Z SUN AND SREF AS EARLY AS 9Z. THE SUITE OF MODEL QPF
HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH A QUARTER TO HALF
INCH OF QPF. WARMER PROFILES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD HOLD
SNOW RATIOS DOWN TO AN AVERAGE OF 12:1 DURING MUCH OF THE EVENT
UNTIL COLDER AIR CIRCULATES IN BEHIND THE SURFACE WAVE LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE ALL COUNTIES SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...THE SOUTHERN TIER HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF 6 OF MORE
INCHES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
FORCING CONTRIBUTED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH COVERING THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL CLIMB TOWARD 30 THEN ONLY SLIP INTO THE 20S
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW AND CLOUD COVER. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
DEFORMATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW ON MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE CHANCES OF SOME LIMITED SNOW TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM TOWARD THE UPPER 20S EARLY THEN FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE STORM.
PACIFIC BASED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND
THE DEPARTING STORM WITH CLEARING SKIES GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD ADVECTION...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE A RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 10.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JUST AS WE ARE FINISHED CLEARING THE DRIVEWAYS AND SIDEWALKS FROM
SUNDAYS STORM...ANOTHER STRONGER AND WARMER STORM WILL QUICKLY
APPROACH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR AN ICY MIX
FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WITH
ATTENDANT VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A FULL
LATITUDE WESTERN STATES TROUGH TUESDAY TRIGGERING A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

WHILE SNOW LOOKS TO BEGIN ARRIVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OVERRIDE COLDER SUB-FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT PRODUCING A WARM NOSE
IN VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SNOW TO CHANGE
TO AN ICY MIX OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SECTIONS POSSIBLY EVEN GOING OVER
TO PLAIN RAIN AS TEMPERATURES PUSH TOWARD 40 DEGREES.

THE MATURE LOW WILL SHIFT JUST NORTHWEST OF WESTERN NEW YORK ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE
TRAILING STRONG WINDS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF PLAIN RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE RAIN WILL
MIX WITH SNOW AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST. THE TRACK OF THIS DEEPENING
LOW CUTTING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRONG
WINDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE
FALL-RISE COUPLET CROSSING DIRECTLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK INDICATING THE START OF THE DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN THE COMING
DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED HIGH WORKING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL STATES. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY DRY WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHER WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...BECOMING WINDY. MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
REGIONS.

THE COLD WEATHER HAS CAUSED CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. OUTSIDE OF FAST FLOWING
AREAS...VIRTUALLY ALL THE CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE FROZEN WITH A VERY
THICK ICE PACK IN PLACE. ICE EXCEEDS A FOOT IN MANY SLOW FLOWING
AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST AND NORTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PATH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA...POSSIBLY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. AT THIS
TIME...AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN MAY CAUSE
CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP AND POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/SMITH
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN
HYDROLOGY...FRANKLIN
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 272040
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING
CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AND LASTING INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES GENERALLY
EXPECTED. ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS. FOLLOWING THE BRIEF WARMUP
WEDNESDAY...COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 336 PM EST FRIDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS AS
CENTER OF STRONG (1045MB) SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS EWD ACROSS PA
AND THE SRN TIER OF NEW YORK. UNDERCUT MOS CONSENSUS BY A FEW
DEGREES WITH CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED. EARLY AM LOWS ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM 0 TO -10F IN
MOST SPOTS (-2F AT BTV)...BUT LOCALLY -15F TO -25F IN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND THE COLDER VALLEYS IN VERMONT`S NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
VARIABLE AT 5 MPH OR LESS AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION OCCURS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM EST FRIDAY...STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE NERN CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...PROVIDING
CONTINUED DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THRU MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE AS WE CLOSE OUT
FEBRUARY...BUMPED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH READINGS REACHING THE LOW/MID 20S FOR
SATURDAY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND MID/UPR 20S ON SUNDAY. WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTN HOURS SUNDAY
AS FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID-LEVEL WAA
REGIME COMMENCES ACROSS NY/NEW ENGLAND. PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
INCREASES AS SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.
THUS...WILL SEE SOUTH-SSW WINDS 10-15 MPH (WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25
MPH SUNDAY AFTN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY).

INCREASING 850-700MB WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALLOWS WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-NE DURING
SUNDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH 2-3" OF ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN
MOST SPOTS. OVERCAST SKIES AND CONTINUED LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPR TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EST FRIDAY...
MONDAY... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES TOWARDS THE EAST NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE AREA FOR MAX TEMPS AND THE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE VALLEYS WITH SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND IN THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS.
MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT FORCE BETWEEN THE 1008MB LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AND THE
1034MB HIGH CENTERED OVER IOWA. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 25KTS ACROSS THE VALLEYS WITH MUCH
HIGHER VALUES AT THE SUMMITS GUSTING TO NEARLY 45KTS AT THE TOP OF
WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN AND MT MANSFIELD. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOWFALL ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF BOTH THE
GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS SO THAT WOULD BE WHERE I`D EXPECT THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.  EVEN SO, I`M ONLY LOOKING
AT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF 0.5 TO 1.5" INCHES ON MONDAY AND THEN THE
PRECIP SHOULD END SHARPLY AS THE LOW CONTINUES OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETS IN.

TUESDAY... THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LEAVING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN MONDAY BUT STILL WELL ABOVE WHAT
WE`VE BEEN SEEING MOST OF FEBRUARY.  EVEN BEHIND THE MILD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH ON MONDAY, THE RISING SUN ANGLE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
THAT CAUSED MONDAY`S WINDS WILL HAVE SUBSIDED LEAVING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SHIFTING FROM MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL ONLY DROP BY A FEW DEGREES AS THE SOUTHERLY WARMER
RETURN FLOW WILL SET IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH.

WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE TWO SLIGHTLY DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR THE
FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.  THE BROAD SENSE OF THE FORECAST IS THAT A
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPAWN A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SURFACE
SYSTEM WILL FEED OFF BOTH A NORTHERLY STREAM OF ENERGY AND A
SOUTHERLY STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM.  THE NET RESULT IS A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A
LONG TIME THE CURRENT IDEA IS THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY AT SOME POINT
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PUSHES INTO
THE AREA TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY.  AS SUCH THERE WILL BE A WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY BY MORNING AND THEN BACK TO
SNOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. USING THE GFS AS THE THERMAL
PROFILE GAVE ME QUITE THE MIX OF PTYPES. FOR THE TIME BEING I OPTED
TO REMOVE FREEZING RAIN FROM THE FORECAST TRANSITION AND TRANSITION
STRAIGHT FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND THEN TO RAIN.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A SMALL WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN BUT AT 5 AND 6 DAYS OUT I JUST DON`T
HAVE THAT KIND OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THAT WINDOW.  I DID
HOWEVER WANT TO ESTABLISH THE WINTRY MIX AND THUS NOT JUST POINT TO
RAIN OR SNOW. 1000-500MB THICKNESS LEVELS WILL BE APPROACH 5500
METERS WELL ABOVE THE "MAGIC" 5400 METER LINE FOR RAIN/SNOW. RIGHT
NOW I WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
TIMING/LOCATION/INTENSITY BUT I FAVOURED THE TRACK OF THE ECMWF A
BIT MORE BECAUSE THE GFS POINTS TO A LOW TRACKING UP THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THEN BOMBING OUT OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING THATS QUITE RARE AND TYPICALLY DOESN`T
HAPPEN.  THE BOMBING LOWS TYPICALLY RUN UP THE COASTAL SO CONSIDER
ME SKEPTICAL OF THAT SOLUTION FOR THE TIME BEING. AS THE LOW PUSHED
THROUGH THE REGION THERE WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY
ALOFT GUSTY TO 40-50KTS ABOVE 2000 FT.

THURSDAY... THE SURFACE LOW THAT BROUGHT THE SNOWFALL WILL BE
PUSHING WELL OUT OF THE AREA TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST GIVING WAY TO
ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY IN THE MORNING THURSDAY
A BURST OF ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE NORTHERLY WRAP
AROUND WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A DECENT SHOT AT OROGRAPHIC SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS SO I WENT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANGE BEGINNING EVERYWHERE
ELSE BY THURSDAY MID MORNING.  THE ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING MAX TEMPS AROUND 30 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH LOW TO
MID 20S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SETS IN AND WE WILL DEVELOP DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY... ONCE AGAIN TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S UNDER THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ONLY MARGINAL CHANCES
OF SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GREENS
AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TODAY WITH
SKIES TRENDING TO SKC BY 00Z SATURDAY. A FEW LIGHT HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD BUILD INTO DURING THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. WINDS WEST
TO NORTHWEST WILL STAY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL



000
FXUS61 KBTV 272040
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING
CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AND LASTING INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES GENERALLY
EXPECTED. ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS. FOLLOWING THE BRIEF WARMUP
WEDNESDAY...COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 336 PM EST FRIDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS AS
CENTER OF STRONG (1045MB) SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS EWD ACROSS PA
AND THE SRN TIER OF NEW YORK. UNDERCUT MOS CONSENSUS BY A FEW
DEGREES WITH CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED. EARLY AM LOWS ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM 0 TO -10F IN
MOST SPOTS (-2F AT BTV)...BUT LOCALLY -15F TO -25F IN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND THE COLDER VALLEYS IN VERMONT`S NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
VARIABLE AT 5 MPH OR LESS AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION OCCURS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM EST FRIDAY...STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE NERN CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...PROVIDING
CONTINUED DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THRU MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE AS WE CLOSE OUT
FEBRUARY...BUMPED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH READINGS REACHING THE LOW/MID 20S FOR
SATURDAY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND MID/UPR 20S ON SUNDAY. WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTN HOURS SUNDAY
AS FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID-LEVEL WAA
REGIME COMMENCES ACROSS NY/NEW ENGLAND. PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
INCREASES AS SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.
THUS...WILL SEE SOUTH-SSW WINDS 10-15 MPH (WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25
MPH SUNDAY AFTN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY).

INCREASING 850-700MB WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALLOWS WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-NE DURING
SUNDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH 2-3" OF ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN
MOST SPOTS. OVERCAST SKIES AND CONTINUED LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPR TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EST FRIDAY...
MONDAY... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES TOWARDS THE EAST NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE AREA FOR MAX TEMPS AND THE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE VALLEYS WITH SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND IN THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS.
MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT FORCE BETWEEN THE 1008MB LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AND THE
1034MB HIGH CENTERED OVER IOWA. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 25KTS ACROSS THE VALLEYS WITH MUCH
HIGHER VALUES AT THE SUMMITS GUSTING TO NEARLY 45KTS AT THE TOP OF
WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN AND MT MANSFIELD. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOWFALL ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF BOTH THE
GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS SO THAT WOULD BE WHERE I`D EXPECT THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.  EVEN SO, I`M ONLY LOOKING
AT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF 0.5 TO 1.5" INCHES ON MONDAY AND THEN THE
PRECIP SHOULD END SHARPLY AS THE LOW CONTINUES OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETS IN.

TUESDAY... THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LEAVING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN MONDAY BUT STILL WELL ABOVE WHAT
WE`VE BEEN SEEING MOST OF FEBRUARY.  EVEN BEHIND THE MILD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH ON MONDAY, THE RISING SUN ANGLE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
THAT CAUSED MONDAY`S WINDS WILL HAVE SUBSIDED LEAVING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SHIFTING FROM MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL ONLY DROP BY A FEW DEGREES AS THE SOUTHERLY WARMER
RETURN FLOW WILL SET IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH.

WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE TWO SLIGHTLY DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR THE
FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.  THE BROAD SENSE OF THE FORECAST IS THAT A
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPAWN A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SURFACE
SYSTEM WILL FEED OFF BOTH A NORTHERLY STREAM OF ENERGY AND A
SOUTHERLY STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM.  THE NET RESULT IS A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A
LONG TIME THE CURRENT IDEA IS THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY AT SOME POINT
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PUSHES INTO
THE AREA TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY.  AS SUCH THERE WILL BE A WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY BY MORNING AND THEN BACK TO
SNOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. USING THE GFS AS THE THERMAL
PROFILE GAVE ME QUITE THE MIX OF PTYPES. FOR THE TIME BEING I OPTED
TO REMOVE FREEZING RAIN FROM THE FORECAST TRANSITION AND TRANSITION
STRAIGHT FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND THEN TO RAIN.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A SMALL WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN BUT AT 5 AND 6 DAYS OUT I JUST DON`T
HAVE THAT KIND OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THAT WINDOW.  I DID
HOWEVER WANT TO ESTABLISH THE WINTRY MIX AND THUS NOT JUST POINT TO
RAIN OR SNOW. 1000-500MB THICKNESS LEVELS WILL BE APPROACH 5500
METERS WELL ABOVE THE "MAGIC" 5400 METER LINE FOR RAIN/SNOW. RIGHT
NOW I WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
TIMING/LOCATION/INTENSITY BUT I FAVOURED THE TRACK OF THE ECMWF A
BIT MORE BECAUSE THE GFS POINTS TO A LOW TRACKING UP THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THEN BOMBING OUT OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING THATS QUITE RARE AND TYPICALLY DOESN`T
HAPPEN.  THE BOMBING LOWS TYPICALLY RUN UP THE COASTAL SO CONSIDER
ME SKEPTICAL OF THAT SOLUTION FOR THE TIME BEING. AS THE LOW PUSHED
THROUGH THE REGION THERE WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY
ALOFT GUSTY TO 40-50KTS ABOVE 2000 FT.

THURSDAY... THE SURFACE LOW THAT BROUGHT THE SNOWFALL WILL BE
PUSHING WELL OUT OF THE AREA TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST GIVING WAY TO
ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY IN THE MORNING THURSDAY
A BURST OF ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE NORTHERLY WRAP
AROUND WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A DECENT SHOT AT OROGRAPHIC SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS SO I WENT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANGE BEGINNING EVERYWHERE
ELSE BY THURSDAY MID MORNING.  THE ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING MAX TEMPS AROUND 30 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH LOW TO
MID 20S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SETS IN AND WE WILL DEVELOP DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY... ONCE AGAIN TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S UNDER THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ONLY MARGINAL CHANCES
OF SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GREENS
AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TODAY WITH
SKIES TRENDING TO SKC BY 00Z SATURDAY. A FEW LIGHT HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD BUILD INTO DURING THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. WINDS WEST
TO NORTHWEST WILL STAY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 272040
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING
CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AND LASTING INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES GENERALLY
EXPECTED. ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS. FOLLOWING THE BRIEF WARMUP
WEDNESDAY...COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 336 PM EST FRIDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS AS
CENTER OF STRONG (1045MB) SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS EWD ACROSS PA
AND THE SRN TIER OF NEW YORK. UNDERCUT MOS CONSENSUS BY A FEW
DEGREES WITH CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED. EARLY AM LOWS ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM 0 TO -10F IN
MOST SPOTS (-2F AT BTV)...BUT LOCALLY -15F TO -25F IN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND THE COLDER VALLEYS IN VERMONT`S NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
VARIABLE AT 5 MPH OR LESS AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION OCCURS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM EST FRIDAY...STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE NERN CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...PROVIDING
CONTINUED DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THRU MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE AS WE CLOSE OUT
FEBRUARY...BUMPED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH READINGS REACHING THE LOW/MID 20S FOR
SATURDAY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND MID/UPR 20S ON SUNDAY. WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTN HOURS SUNDAY
AS FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID-LEVEL WAA
REGIME COMMENCES ACROSS NY/NEW ENGLAND. PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
INCREASES AS SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.
THUS...WILL SEE SOUTH-SSW WINDS 10-15 MPH (WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25
MPH SUNDAY AFTN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY).

INCREASING 850-700MB WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALLOWS WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-NE DURING
SUNDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH 2-3" OF ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN
MOST SPOTS. OVERCAST SKIES AND CONTINUED LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPR TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EST FRIDAY...
MONDAY... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES TOWARDS THE EAST NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE AREA FOR MAX TEMPS AND THE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE VALLEYS WITH SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND IN THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS.
MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT FORCE BETWEEN THE 1008MB LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AND THE
1034MB HIGH CENTERED OVER IOWA. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 25KTS ACROSS THE VALLEYS WITH MUCH
HIGHER VALUES AT THE SUMMITS GUSTING TO NEARLY 45KTS AT THE TOP OF
WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN AND MT MANSFIELD. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOWFALL ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF BOTH THE
GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS SO THAT WOULD BE WHERE I`D EXPECT THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.  EVEN SO, I`M ONLY LOOKING
AT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF 0.5 TO 1.5" INCHES ON MONDAY AND THEN THE
PRECIP SHOULD END SHARPLY AS THE LOW CONTINUES OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETS IN.

TUESDAY... THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LEAVING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN MONDAY BUT STILL WELL ABOVE WHAT
WE`VE BEEN SEEING MOST OF FEBRUARY.  EVEN BEHIND THE MILD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH ON MONDAY, THE RISING SUN ANGLE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
THAT CAUSED MONDAY`S WINDS WILL HAVE SUBSIDED LEAVING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SHIFTING FROM MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL ONLY DROP BY A FEW DEGREES AS THE SOUTHERLY WARMER
RETURN FLOW WILL SET IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH.

WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE TWO SLIGHTLY DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR THE
FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.  THE BROAD SENSE OF THE FORECAST IS THAT A
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPAWN A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SURFACE
SYSTEM WILL FEED OFF BOTH A NORTHERLY STREAM OF ENERGY AND A
SOUTHERLY STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM.  THE NET RESULT IS A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A
LONG TIME THE CURRENT IDEA IS THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY AT SOME POINT
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PUSHES INTO
THE AREA TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY.  AS SUCH THERE WILL BE A WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY BY MORNING AND THEN BACK TO
SNOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. USING THE GFS AS THE THERMAL
PROFILE GAVE ME QUITE THE MIX OF PTYPES. FOR THE TIME BEING I OPTED
TO REMOVE FREEZING RAIN FROM THE FORECAST TRANSITION AND TRANSITION
STRAIGHT FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND THEN TO RAIN.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A SMALL WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN BUT AT 5 AND 6 DAYS OUT I JUST DON`T
HAVE THAT KIND OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THAT WINDOW.  I DID
HOWEVER WANT TO ESTABLISH THE WINTRY MIX AND THUS NOT JUST POINT TO
RAIN OR SNOW. 1000-500MB THICKNESS LEVELS WILL BE APPROACH 5500
METERS WELL ABOVE THE "MAGIC" 5400 METER LINE FOR RAIN/SNOW. RIGHT
NOW I WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
TIMING/LOCATION/INTENSITY BUT I FAVOURED THE TRACK OF THE ECMWF A
BIT MORE BECAUSE THE GFS POINTS TO A LOW TRACKING UP THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THEN BOMBING OUT OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING THATS QUITE RARE AND TYPICALLY DOESN`T
HAPPEN.  THE BOMBING LOWS TYPICALLY RUN UP THE COASTAL SO CONSIDER
ME SKEPTICAL OF THAT SOLUTION FOR THE TIME BEING. AS THE LOW PUSHED
THROUGH THE REGION THERE WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY
ALOFT GUSTY TO 40-50KTS ABOVE 2000 FT.

THURSDAY... THE SURFACE LOW THAT BROUGHT THE SNOWFALL WILL BE
PUSHING WELL OUT OF THE AREA TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST GIVING WAY TO
ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY IN THE MORNING THURSDAY
A BURST OF ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE NORTHERLY WRAP
AROUND WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A DECENT SHOT AT OROGRAPHIC SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS SO I WENT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANGE BEGINNING EVERYWHERE
ELSE BY THURSDAY MID MORNING.  THE ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING MAX TEMPS AROUND 30 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH LOW TO
MID 20S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SETS IN AND WE WILL DEVELOP DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY... ONCE AGAIN TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S UNDER THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ONLY MARGINAL CHANCES
OF SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GREENS
AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TODAY WITH
SKIES TRENDING TO SKC BY 00Z SATURDAY. A FEW LIGHT HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD BUILD INTO DURING THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. WINDS WEST
TO NORTHWEST WILL STAY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 272040
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING
CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AND LASTING INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES GENERALLY
EXPECTED. ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS. FOLLOWING THE BRIEF WARMUP
WEDNESDAY...COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 336 PM EST FRIDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS AS
CENTER OF STRONG (1045MB) SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS EWD ACROSS PA
AND THE SRN TIER OF NEW YORK. UNDERCUT MOS CONSENSUS BY A FEW
DEGREES WITH CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED. EARLY AM LOWS ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM 0 TO -10F IN
MOST SPOTS (-2F AT BTV)...BUT LOCALLY -15F TO -25F IN THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND THE COLDER VALLEYS IN VERMONT`S NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
VARIABLE AT 5 MPH OR LESS AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION OCCURS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM EST FRIDAY...STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE NERN CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...PROVIDING
CONTINUED DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THRU MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE AS WE CLOSE OUT
FEBRUARY...BUMPED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH READINGS REACHING THE LOW/MID 20S FOR
SATURDAY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND MID/UPR 20S ON SUNDAY. WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTN HOURS SUNDAY
AS FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID-LEVEL WAA
REGIME COMMENCES ACROSS NY/NEW ENGLAND. PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
INCREASES AS SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.
THUS...WILL SEE SOUTH-SSW WINDS 10-15 MPH (WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25
MPH SUNDAY AFTN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY).

INCREASING 850-700MB WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALLOWS WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-NE DURING
SUNDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH 2-3" OF ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN
MOST SPOTS. OVERCAST SKIES AND CONTINUED LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPR TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EST FRIDAY...
MONDAY... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES TOWARDS THE EAST NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE AREA FOR MAX TEMPS AND THE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE VALLEYS WITH SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND IN THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS.
MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT FORCE BETWEEN THE 1008MB LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AND THE
1034MB HIGH CENTERED OVER IOWA. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 25KTS ACROSS THE VALLEYS WITH MUCH
HIGHER VALUES AT THE SUMMITS GUSTING TO NEARLY 45KTS AT THE TOP OF
WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN AND MT MANSFIELD. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOWFALL ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF BOTH THE
GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS SO THAT WOULD BE WHERE I`D EXPECT THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.  EVEN SO, I`M ONLY LOOKING
AT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF 0.5 TO 1.5" INCHES ON MONDAY AND THEN THE
PRECIP SHOULD END SHARPLY AS THE LOW CONTINUES OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETS IN.

TUESDAY... THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LEAVING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN MONDAY BUT STILL WELL ABOVE WHAT
WE`VE BEEN SEEING MOST OF FEBRUARY.  EVEN BEHIND THE MILD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH ON MONDAY, THE RISING SUN ANGLE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
THAT CAUSED MONDAY`S WINDS WILL HAVE SUBSIDED LEAVING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SHIFTING FROM MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL ONLY DROP BY A FEW DEGREES AS THE SOUTHERLY WARMER
RETURN FLOW WILL SET IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH.

WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE TWO SLIGHTLY DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR THE
FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.  THE BROAD SENSE OF THE FORECAST IS THAT A
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPAWN A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SURFACE
SYSTEM WILL FEED OFF BOTH A NORTHERLY STREAM OF ENERGY AND A
SOUTHERLY STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM.  THE NET RESULT IS A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A
LONG TIME THE CURRENT IDEA IS THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY AT SOME POINT
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PUSHES INTO
THE AREA TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY.  AS SUCH THERE WILL BE A WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY BY MORNING AND THEN BACK TO
SNOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. USING THE GFS AS THE THERMAL
PROFILE GAVE ME QUITE THE MIX OF PTYPES. FOR THE TIME BEING I OPTED
TO REMOVE FREEZING RAIN FROM THE FORECAST TRANSITION AND TRANSITION
STRAIGHT FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND THEN TO RAIN.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A SMALL WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN BUT AT 5 AND 6 DAYS OUT I JUST DON`T
HAVE THAT KIND OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THAT WINDOW.  I DID
HOWEVER WANT TO ESTABLISH THE WINTRY MIX AND THUS NOT JUST POINT TO
RAIN OR SNOW. 1000-500MB THICKNESS LEVELS WILL BE APPROACH 5500
METERS WELL ABOVE THE "MAGIC" 5400 METER LINE FOR RAIN/SNOW. RIGHT
NOW I WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
TIMING/LOCATION/INTENSITY BUT I FAVOURED THE TRACK OF THE ECMWF A
BIT MORE BECAUSE THE GFS POINTS TO A LOW TRACKING UP THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THEN BOMBING OUT OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING THATS QUITE RARE AND TYPICALLY DOESN`T
HAPPEN.  THE BOMBING LOWS TYPICALLY RUN UP THE COASTAL SO CONSIDER
ME SKEPTICAL OF THAT SOLUTION FOR THE TIME BEING. AS THE LOW PUSHED
THROUGH THE REGION THERE WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY
ALOFT GUSTY TO 40-50KTS ABOVE 2000 FT.

THURSDAY... THE SURFACE LOW THAT BROUGHT THE SNOWFALL WILL BE
PUSHING WELL OUT OF THE AREA TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST GIVING WAY TO
ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY IN THE MORNING THURSDAY
A BURST OF ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE NORTHERLY WRAP
AROUND WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A DECENT SHOT AT OROGRAPHIC SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS SO I WENT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANGE BEGINNING EVERYWHERE
ELSE BY THURSDAY MID MORNING.  THE ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING MAX TEMPS AROUND 30 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH LOW TO
MID 20S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SETS IN AND WE WILL DEVELOP DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY... ONCE AGAIN TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S UNDER THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ONLY MARGINAL CHANCES
OF SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GREENS
AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TODAY WITH
SKIES TRENDING TO SKC BY 00Z SATURDAY. A FEW LIGHT HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD BUILD INTO DURING THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. WINDS WEST
TO NORTHWEST WILL STAY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL



000
FXUS61 KBGM 272036
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
336 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD DRY WEATHER
TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAND OF CLOUDS PERSISTS OVER THE SYRACUSE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES AT TIMES... WHILE ANOTHER BAND IS LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO. BOTH OF THESE BANDS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST TOWARD NY AND
PENNSYLVANIA. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BELOW ZERO IN MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. NOTICED THAT TEMPERAURES NEAR
THE NORTHEAST RIM OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER MICHIGAN WERE QUITE
COLD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD ZERO TO -20 READINGS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THAT STATE. MOS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOWS
NEAR ZERO TONIGHT... BIT OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS COLDER AND BASED ON
CURRENT CONDITIONS BELIEVE THAT THE COLDER FORECAST IS PROBABLY
BETTER. HAVE BASICALLY KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING FOR
READINGS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO IN WARMER
AREAS... TO AS LOW AS -10 TO -15 IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT... WITH WIND CHILLS BASICALLY RUNNING ABOUT
THE SAME AS THE TEMPERATURE.

SATURDAY WILL BE A SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE
AREA. AFTER A VERY COLD START TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY RISE TO
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY... WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT SOME CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT EXPECT LOWEST TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE EAST WITH WIDESPREAD BELOW READINGS.
IN THE WEST TEMPERATURES MAY FALL TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE ZERO IN
THE EVENING... THEN LEVEL OUT OR MAYBE EVEN RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS NY
AND PA LATER SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY... WITH SNOW PROBABLY DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND`S EVENT... AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SIMILAR SNOW AMOUNTS... WITH MAXIMUM VALUES IN
THE SYRACUSE AREA EAST TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND SMALLEST AMOUNTS NORTHEAST OF HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY WHERE SW FLOW MAY
DOWNSLOPE OFF OF THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT THIS PATTERN AND GIVEN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL TIMES
THIS YEAR AND PARTICULARLY LAST WEEKEND WE ARE INCLINED TO BELIEVE
THIS SCENARIO.  BASICALLY EXPECTING A 2 TO 5 INCH SNOW EVENT FOR
MOST AREAS... WITH AGAIN LOWEST AMOUNTS NORTHEAST OF HIGHER
TERRAIN AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND POSSIBLY
SYRACUSE.

STEADIER SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BACK DOWN TO
AROUND -15 SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON SO SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE. WITH
THE FLOW FROM 300-310 DEGREES EXPECTING MULTIBANDS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. WITH A SHORT FETCH AND ICE COVER OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
ONTARIO EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE
SYRACUSE AREA SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THROUGH THE EASTERN FINGER
LAKES AREA... WITH UP TO A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES TRANSITORY.
POTENT STORM FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION TYPES LIKELY. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. AGAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE...BUT AVERAGE IS ABOVE FREEZING NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AM BEFORE THE STORM MOVES NE.
RIDGING ALOFT WITH WAA AT MID LEVELS. OVERRUNNING PRECIP STARTS AS
SNOW TUESDAY AFTN AND EVE. THE GFS IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS FASTER
THAN THE EURO. TUESDAY OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS GO ABOVE 0C SO
CHANGEOVER TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN. WARM AIR HEADS TO SURFACE
WEDNESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN EVERYWHERE. THE STORM
TRACK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST 2 OR 3 DAYS. MOVING NE INTO SE
ONTARIO WED AM. COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH WED PM CHANGING THE PRECIP
TO SNOW.

CAA THU NGT AND FRIDAY SO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY SO DRYING ESPECIALLY NE PA. GFS
AND EURO AGREE ON A WEAK CLIPPER MOVING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA
FRIDAY NGT WHICH MAY BRUSH THE NY ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1230 PM UPDATE...

STILL SOME FLURRIES THAT SHOULD AFFECT SYR AND RME. WEAK WNW FLOW
IS CAUSING MVFR CLOUDS IN SYR THIS AFTN. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
WEST SO RME SHOULD HAVE MVFR CLOUDS THIS EVE.

NE PA AND SRN TIER OF NY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED TO CLEAR THIS
AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT SENDING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES AND CLEARING SKIES. CLEAR SKEIS REMAIN INTO
SATURDAY.

W TO NW WINDS AT 7 TO 10 KTS BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START GOING TO A MIX THEN
RAIN WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...HEDEN/TAC
AVIATION...TAC






000
FXUS61 KBGM 272036
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
336 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD DRY WEATHER
TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAND OF CLOUDS PERSISTS OVER THE SYRACUSE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES AT TIMES... WHILE ANOTHER BAND IS LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO. BOTH OF THESE BANDS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST TOWARD NY AND
PENNSYLVANIA. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BELOW ZERO IN MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. NOTICED THAT TEMPERAURES NEAR
THE NORTHEAST RIM OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER MICHIGAN WERE QUITE
COLD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD ZERO TO -20 READINGS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THAT STATE. MOS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOWS
NEAR ZERO TONIGHT... BIT OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS COLDER AND BASED ON
CURRENT CONDITIONS BELIEVE THAT THE COLDER FORECAST IS PROBABLY
BETTER. HAVE BASICALLY KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING FOR
READINGS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO IN WARMER
AREAS... TO AS LOW AS -10 TO -15 IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT... WITH WIND CHILLS BASICALLY RUNNING ABOUT
THE SAME AS THE TEMPERATURE.

SATURDAY WILL BE A SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE
AREA. AFTER A VERY COLD START TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY RISE TO
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY... WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT SOME CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT EXPECT LOWEST TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE EAST WITH WIDESPREAD BELOW READINGS.
IN THE WEST TEMPERATURES MAY FALL TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE ZERO IN
THE EVENING... THEN LEVEL OUT OR MAYBE EVEN RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS NY
AND PA LATER SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY... WITH SNOW PROBABLY DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND`S EVENT... AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SIMILAR SNOW AMOUNTS... WITH MAXIMUM VALUES IN
THE SYRACUSE AREA EAST TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND SMALLEST AMOUNTS NORTHEAST OF HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY WHERE SW FLOW MAY
DOWNSLOPE OFF OF THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT THIS PATTERN AND GIVEN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL TIMES
THIS YEAR AND PARTICULARLY LAST WEEKEND WE ARE INCLINED TO BELIEVE
THIS SCENARIO.  BASICALLY EXPECTING A 2 TO 5 INCH SNOW EVENT FOR
MOST AREAS... WITH AGAIN LOWEST AMOUNTS NORTHEAST OF HIGHER
TERRAIN AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND POSSIBLY
SYRACUSE.

STEADIER SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BACK DOWN TO
AROUND -15 SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON SO SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE. WITH
THE FLOW FROM 300-310 DEGREES EXPECTING MULTIBANDS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. WITH A SHORT FETCH AND ICE COVER OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
ONTARIO EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE
SYRACUSE AREA SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THROUGH THE EASTERN FINGER
LAKES AREA... WITH UP TO A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES TRANSITORY.
POTENT STORM FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION TYPES LIKELY. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. AGAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE...BUT AVERAGE IS ABOVE FREEZING NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AM BEFORE THE STORM MOVES NE.
RIDGING ALOFT WITH WAA AT MID LEVELS. OVERRUNNING PRECIP STARTS AS
SNOW TUESDAY AFTN AND EVE. THE GFS IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS FASTER
THAN THE EURO. TUESDAY OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS GO ABOVE 0C SO
CHANGEOVER TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN. WARM AIR HEADS TO SURFACE
WEDNESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN EVERYWHERE. THE STORM
TRACK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST 2 OR 3 DAYS. MOVING NE INTO SE
ONTARIO WED AM. COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH WED PM CHANGING THE PRECIP
TO SNOW.

CAA THU NGT AND FRIDAY SO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY SO DRYING ESPECIALLY NE PA. GFS
AND EURO AGREE ON A WEAK CLIPPER MOVING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA
FRIDAY NGT WHICH MAY BRUSH THE NY ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1230 PM UPDATE...

STILL SOME FLURRIES THAT SHOULD AFFECT SYR AND RME. WEAK WNW FLOW
IS CAUSING MVFR CLOUDS IN SYR THIS AFTN. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
WEST SO RME SHOULD HAVE MVFR CLOUDS THIS EVE.

NE PA AND SRN TIER OF NY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED TO CLEAR THIS
AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT SENDING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES AND CLEARING SKIES. CLEAR SKEIS REMAIN INTO
SATURDAY.

W TO NW WINDS AT 7 TO 10 KTS BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START GOING TO A MIX THEN
RAIN WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...HEDEN/TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 272036
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
336 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD DRY WEATHER
TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAND OF CLOUDS PERSISTS OVER THE SYRACUSE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES AT TIMES... WHILE ANOTHER BAND IS LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO. BOTH OF THESE BANDS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST TOWARD NY AND
PENNSYLVANIA. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BELOW ZERO IN MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. NOTICED THAT TEMPERAURES NEAR
THE NORTHEAST RIM OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER MICHIGAN WERE QUITE
COLD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD ZERO TO -20 READINGS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THAT STATE. MOS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOWS
NEAR ZERO TONIGHT... BIT OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS COLDER AND BASED ON
CURRENT CONDITIONS BELIEVE THAT THE COLDER FORECAST IS PROBABLY
BETTER. HAVE BASICALLY KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING FOR
READINGS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO IN WARMER
AREAS... TO AS LOW AS -10 TO -15 IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT... WITH WIND CHILLS BASICALLY RUNNING ABOUT
THE SAME AS THE TEMPERATURE.

SATURDAY WILL BE A SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE
AREA. AFTER A VERY COLD START TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY RISE TO
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY... WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT SOME CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT EXPECT LOWEST TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE EAST WITH WIDESPREAD BELOW READINGS.
IN THE WEST TEMPERATURES MAY FALL TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE ZERO IN
THE EVENING... THEN LEVEL OUT OR MAYBE EVEN RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS NY
AND PA LATER SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY... WITH SNOW PROBABLY DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND`S EVENT... AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SIMILAR SNOW AMOUNTS... WITH MAXIMUM VALUES IN
THE SYRACUSE AREA EAST TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND SMALLEST AMOUNTS NORTHEAST OF HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY WHERE SW FLOW MAY
DOWNSLOPE OFF OF THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT THIS PATTERN AND GIVEN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL TIMES
THIS YEAR AND PARTICULARLY LAST WEEKEND WE ARE INCLINED TO BELIEVE
THIS SCENARIO.  BASICALLY EXPECTING A 2 TO 5 INCH SNOW EVENT FOR
MOST AREAS... WITH AGAIN LOWEST AMOUNTS NORTHEAST OF HIGHER
TERRAIN AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND POSSIBLY
SYRACUSE.

STEADIER SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BACK DOWN TO
AROUND -15 SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON SO SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE. WITH
THE FLOW FROM 300-310 DEGREES EXPECTING MULTIBANDS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. WITH A SHORT FETCH AND ICE COVER OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
ONTARIO EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE
SYRACUSE AREA SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THROUGH THE EASTERN FINGER
LAKES AREA... WITH UP TO A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES TRANSITORY.
POTENT STORM FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION TYPES LIKELY. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. AGAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE...BUT AVERAGE IS ABOVE FREEZING NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AM BEFORE THE STORM MOVES NE.
RIDGING ALOFT WITH WAA AT MID LEVELS. OVERRUNNING PRECIP STARTS AS
SNOW TUESDAY AFTN AND EVE. THE GFS IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS FASTER
THAN THE EURO. TUESDAY OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS GO ABOVE 0C SO
CHANGEOVER TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN. WARM AIR HEADS TO SURFACE
WEDNESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN EVERYWHERE. THE STORM
TRACK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST 2 OR 3 DAYS. MOVING NE INTO SE
ONTARIO WED AM. COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH WED PM CHANGING THE PRECIP
TO SNOW.

CAA THU NGT AND FRIDAY SO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY SO DRYING ESPECIALLY NE PA. GFS
AND EURO AGREE ON A WEAK CLIPPER MOVING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA
FRIDAY NGT WHICH MAY BRUSH THE NY ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1230 PM UPDATE...

STILL SOME FLURRIES THAT SHOULD AFFECT SYR AND RME. WEAK WNW FLOW
IS CAUSING MVFR CLOUDS IN SYR THIS AFTN. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
WEST SO RME SHOULD HAVE MVFR CLOUDS THIS EVE.

NE PA AND SRN TIER OF NY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED TO CLEAR THIS
AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT SENDING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES AND CLEARING SKIES. CLEAR SKEIS REMAIN INTO
SATURDAY.

W TO NW WINDS AT 7 TO 10 KTS BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START GOING TO A MIX THEN
RAIN WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...HEDEN/TAC
AVIATION...TAC






000
FXUS61 KBGM 272036
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
336 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD DRY WEATHER
TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAND OF CLOUDS PERSISTS OVER THE SYRACUSE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES AT TIMES... WHILE ANOTHER BAND IS LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO. BOTH OF THESE BANDS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST TOWARD NY AND
PENNSYLVANIA. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BELOW ZERO IN MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. NOTICED THAT TEMPERAURES NEAR
THE NORTHEAST RIM OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER MICHIGAN WERE QUITE
COLD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD ZERO TO -20 READINGS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THAT STATE. MOS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOWS
NEAR ZERO TONIGHT... BIT OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS COLDER AND BASED ON
CURRENT CONDITIONS BELIEVE THAT THE COLDER FORECAST IS PROBABLY
BETTER. HAVE BASICALLY KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING FOR
READINGS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO IN WARMER
AREAS... TO AS LOW AS -10 TO -15 IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT... WITH WIND CHILLS BASICALLY RUNNING ABOUT
THE SAME AS THE TEMPERATURE.

SATURDAY WILL BE A SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE
AREA. AFTER A VERY COLD START TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY RISE TO
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY... WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT SOME CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT EXPECT LOWEST TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE EAST WITH WIDESPREAD BELOW READINGS.
IN THE WEST TEMPERATURES MAY FALL TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE ZERO IN
THE EVENING... THEN LEVEL OUT OR MAYBE EVEN RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS NY
AND PA LATER SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY... WITH SNOW PROBABLY DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND`S EVENT... AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SIMILAR SNOW AMOUNTS... WITH MAXIMUM VALUES IN
THE SYRACUSE AREA EAST TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND SMALLEST AMOUNTS NORTHEAST OF HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY WHERE SW FLOW MAY
DOWNSLOPE OFF OF THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT THIS PATTERN AND GIVEN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL TIMES
THIS YEAR AND PARTICULARLY LAST WEEKEND WE ARE INCLINED TO BELIEVE
THIS SCENARIO.  BASICALLY EXPECTING A 2 TO 5 INCH SNOW EVENT FOR
MOST AREAS... WITH AGAIN LOWEST AMOUNTS NORTHEAST OF HIGHER
TERRAIN AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND POSSIBLY
SYRACUSE.

STEADIER SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BACK DOWN TO
AROUND -15 SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON SO SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE. WITH
THE FLOW FROM 300-310 DEGREES EXPECTING MULTIBANDS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. WITH A SHORT FETCH AND ICE COVER OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
ONTARIO EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE
SYRACUSE AREA SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THROUGH THE EASTERN FINGER
LAKES AREA... WITH UP TO A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES TRANSITORY.
POTENT STORM FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION TYPES LIKELY. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. AGAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE...BUT AVERAGE IS ABOVE FREEZING NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AM BEFORE THE STORM MOVES NE.
RIDGING ALOFT WITH WAA AT MID LEVELS. OVERRUNNING PRECIP STARTS AS
SNOW TUESDAY AFTN AND EVE. THE GFS IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS FASTER
THAN THE EURO. TUESDAY OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS GO ABOVE 0C SO
CHANGEOVER TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN. WARM AIR HEADS TO SURFACE
WEDNESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN EVERYWHERE. THE STORM
TRACK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST 2 OR 3 DAYS. MOVING NE INTO SE
ONTARIO WED AM. COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH WED PM CHANGING THE PRECIP
TO SNOW.

CAA THU NGT AND FRIDAY SO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY SO DRYING ESPECIALLY NE PA. GFS
AND EURO AGREE ON A WEAK CLIPPER MOVING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA
FRIDAY NGT WHICH MAY BRUSH THE NY ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1230 PM UPDATE...

STILL SOME FLURRIES THAT SHOULD AFFECT SYR AND RME. WEAK WNW FLOW
IS CAUSING MVFR CLOUDS IN SYR THIS AFTN. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
WEST SO RME SHOULD HAVE MVFR CLOUDS THIS EVE.

NE PA AND SRN TIER OF NY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED TO CLEAR THIS
AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT SENDING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES AND CLEARING SKIES. CLEAR SKEIS REMAIN INTO
SATURDAY.

W TO NW WINDS AT 7 TO 10 KTS BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START GOING TO A MIX THEN
RAIN WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...HEDEN/TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBUF 271950
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
250 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TOT HE NORTHEASTERN STATES
ON SATURDAY. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SETTLE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO HAS
NOW SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE AND WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT
DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. ADDITIONAL WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF ICE
COVERED LAKE ERIE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING
ABOUT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
NUMBERS ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS
INLAND AND NEAR MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE BITTER COLD OF RECENT WEEKS WILL RELAX DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL RESULT IN OUR REGION BEING
DOMINATED BY PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME AT THE
EXPENSE OF RECEIVING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THOUGH...AS WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE JET TYPICALLY COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL STREAK
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD DOME OF
AIR OVER OUR REGION BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BE FOUND
AHEAD OF A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE DEEPENING LIFT SUPPLIED BY A 140KT H25 JET AND WARM
ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS
FIRST DAY OF MARCH WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH IN MOST AREAS
TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF RAISING POPS...GOING WITH NEAR 90 IN THE WEST AND 80
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 20 POINTS HIGHER
THAN THE MAINSTREAM MOS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET...A
VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE PLOWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2/3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE BOOSTED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS TO 100.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH AND EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE TO END THE MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
500MB SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A
BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST STORM IN MORE THAN A MONTH THAT COULD BRING P-TYPE ISSUES BACK
TO THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO NEAR +8C BY TUESDAY NIGHT SO WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
SOME SNOW TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A
WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLE EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REMAIN BUT BOTH SHOW A DEEPENING LOW CUTTING
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. COLD
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
SNOWFALL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHER WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...BECOMING WINDY. MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
REGIONS.

THE COLD WEATHER HAS CAUSED CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. OUTSIDE OF FAST FLOWING
AREAS...VIRTUALLY ALL THE CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE FROZEN WITH A VERY
THICK ICE PACK IN PLACE. ICE EXCEEDS A FOOT IN MANY SLOW FLOWING
AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST AND NORTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PATH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA...POSSIBLY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. AT THIS
TIME...AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN MAY CAUSE
CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP AND POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN
HYDROLOGY...FRANKLIN
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 271950
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
250 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TOT HE NORTHEASTERN STATES
ON SATURDAY. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SETTLE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO HAS
NOW SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE AND WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT
DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. ADDITIONAL WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF ICE
COVERED LAKE ERIE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING
ABOUT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
NUMBERS ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS
INLAND AND NEAR MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE BITTER COLD OF RECENT WEEKS WILL RELAX DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL RESULT IN OUR REGION BEING
DOMINATED BY PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME AT THE
EXPENSE OF RECEIVING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THOUGH...AS WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE JET TYPICALLY COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL STREAK
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD DOME OF
AIR OVER OUR REGION BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BE FOUND
AHEAD OF A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE DEEPENING LIFT SUPPLIED BY A 140KT H25 JET AND WARM
ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS
FIRST DAY OF MARCH WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH IN MOST AREAS
TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF RAISING POPS...GOING WITH NEAR 90 IN THE WEST AND 80
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 20 POINTS HIGHER
THAN THE MAINSTREAM MOS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET...A
VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE PLOWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2/3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE BOOSTED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS TO 100.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH AND EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE TO END THE MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
500MB SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A
BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST STORM IN MORE THAN A MONTH THAT COULD BRING P-TYPE ISSUES BACK
TO THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO NEAR +8C BY TUESDAY NIGHT SO WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
SOME SNOW TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A
WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLE EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REMAIN BUT BOTH SHOW A DEEPENING LOW CUTTING
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. COLD
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
SNOWFALL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHER WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...BECOMING WINDY. MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
REGIONS.

THE COLD WEATHER HAS CAUSED CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. OUTSIDE OF FAST FLOWING
AREAS...VIRTUALLY ALL THE CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE FROZEN WITH A VERY
THICK ICE PACK IN PLACE. ICE EXCEEDS A FOOT IN MANY SLOW FLOWING
AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST AND NORTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PATH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA...POSSIBLY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. AT THIS
TIME...AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN MAY CAUSE
CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP AND POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN
HYDROLOGY...FRANKLIN
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 271950
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
250 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TOT HE NORTHEASTERN STATES
ON SATURDAY. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SETTLE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO HAS
NOW SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE AND WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT
DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. ADDITIONAL WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF ICE
COVERED LAKE ERIE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING
ABOUT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
NUMBERS ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS
INLAND AND NEAR MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE BITTER COLD OF RECENT WEEKS WILL RELAX DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL RESULT IN OUR REGION BEING
DOMINATED BY PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME AT THE
EXPENSE OF RECEIVING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THOUGH...AS WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE JET TYPICALLY COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL STREAK
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD DOME OF
AIR OVER OUR REGION BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BE FOUND
AHEAD OF A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE DEEPENING LIFT SUPPLIED BY A 140KT H25 JET AND WARM
ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS
FIRST DAY OF MARCH WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH IN MOST AREAS
TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF RAISING POPS...GOING WITH NEAR 90 IN THE WEST AND 80
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 20 POINTS HIGHER
THAN THE MAINSTREAM MOS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET...A
VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE PLOWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2/3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE BOOSTED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS TO 100.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH AND EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE TO END THE MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
500MB SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A
BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST STORM IN MORE THAN A MONTH THAT COULD BRING P-TYPE ISSUES BACK
TO THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO NEAR +8C BY TUESDAY NIGHT SO WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
SOME SNOW TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A
WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLE EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REMAIN BUT BOTH SHOW A DEEPENING LOW CUTTING
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. COLD
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
SNOWFALL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHER WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...BECOMING WINDY. MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
REGIONS.

THE COLD WEATHER HAS CAUSED CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. OUTSIDE OF FAST FLOWING
AREAS...VIRTUALLY ALL THE CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE FROZEN WITH A VERY
THICK ICE PACK IN PLACE. ICE EXCEEDS A FOOT IN MANY SLOW FLOWING
AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST AND NORTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PATH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA...POSSIBLY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. AT THIS
TIME...AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN MAY CAUSE
CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP AND POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN
HYDROLOGY...FRANKLIN
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 271950
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
250 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TOT HE NORTHEASTERN STATES
ON SATURDAY. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SETTLE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO HAS
NOW SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE AND WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT
DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. ADDITIONAL WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF ICE
COVERED LAKE ERIE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING
ABOUT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
NUMBERS ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS
INLAND AND NEAR MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE BITTER COLD OF RECENT WEEKS WILL RELAX DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL RESULT IN OUR REGION BEING
DOMINATED BY PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME AT THE
EXPENSE OF RECEIVING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THOUGH...AS WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE JET TYPICALLY COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL STREAK
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD DOME OF
AIR OVER OUR REGION BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BE FOUND
AHEAD OF A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE DEEPENING LIFT SUPPLIED BY A 140KT H25 JET AND WARM
ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS
FIRST DAY OF MARCH WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH IN MOST AREAS
TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF RAISING POPS...GOING WITH NEAR 90 IN THE WEST AND 80
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 20 POINTS HIGHER
THAN THE MAINSTREAM MOS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET...A
VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE PLOWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2/3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE BOOSTED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS TO 100.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH AND EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE TO END THE MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
500MB SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A
BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST STORM IN MORE THAN A MONTH THAT COULD BRING P-TYPE ISSUES BACK
TO THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO NEAR +8C BY TUESDAY NIGHT SO WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
SOME SNOW TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A
WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLE EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REMAIN BUT BOTH SHOW A DEEPENING LOW CUTTING
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. COLD
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
SNOWFALL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHER WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...BECOMING WINDY. MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
REGIONS.

THE COLD WEATHER HAS CAUSED CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. OUTSIDE OF FAST FLOWING
AREAS...VIRTUALLY ALL THE CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE FROZEN WITH A VERY
THICK ICE PACK IN PLACE. ICE EXCEEDS A FOOT IN MANY SLOW FLOWING
AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST AND NORTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PATH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA...POSSIBLY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. AT THIS
TIME...AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN MAY CAUSE
CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP AND POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN
HYDROLOGY...FRANKLIN
CLIMATE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 271950
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
250 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TOT HE NORTHEASTERN STATES
ON SATURDAY. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SETTLE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO HAS
NOW SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE AND WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT
DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. ADDITIONAL WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF ICE
COVERED LAKE ERIE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING
ABOUT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
NUMBERS ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS
INLAND AND NEAR MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE BITTER COLD OF RECENT WEEKS WILL RELAX DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL RESULT IN OUR REGION BEING
DOMINATED BY PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME AT THE
EXPENSE OF RECEIVING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THOUGH...AS WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE JET TYPICALLY COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL STREAK
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD DOME OF
AIR OVER OUR REGION BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BE FOUND
AHEAD OF A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE DEEPENING LIFT SUPPLIED BY A 140KT H25 JET AND WARM
ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS
FIRST DAY OF MARCH WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH IN MOST AREAS
TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF RAISING POPS...GOING WITH NEAR 90 IN THE WEST AND 80
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 20 POINTS HIGHER
THAN THE MAINSTREAM MOS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET...A
VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE PLOWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2/3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE BOOSTED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS TO 100.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH AND EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE TO END THE MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
500MB SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A
BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST STORM IN MORE THAN A MONTH THAT COULD BRING P-TYPE ISSUES BACK
TO THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO NEAR +8C BY TUESDAY NIGHT SO WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
SOME SNOW TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A
WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLE EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REMAIN BUT BOTH SHOW A DEEPENING LOW CUTTING
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. COLD
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
SNOWFALL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHER WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...BECOMING WINDY. MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
REGIONS.

THE COLD WEATHER HAS CAUSED CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. OUTSIDE OF FAST FLOWING
AREAS...VIRTUALLY ALL THE CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE FROZEN WITH A VERY
THICK ICE PACK IN PLACE. ICE EXCEEDS A FOOT IN MANY SLOW FLOWING
AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST AND NORTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PATH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA...POSSIBLY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. AT THIS
TIME...AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN MAY CAUSE
CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP AND POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN
HYDROLOGY...FRANKLIN
CLIMATE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 271950
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
250 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TOT HE NORTHEASTERN STATES
ON SATURDAY. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SETTLE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO HAS
NOW SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE AND WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT
DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. ADDITIONAL WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF ICE
COVERED LAKE ERIE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING
ABOUT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
NUMBERS ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS
INLAND AND NEAR MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE BITTER COLD OF RECENT WEEKS WILL RELAX DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL RESULT IN OUR REGION BEING
DOMINATED BY PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME AT THE
EXPENSE OF RECEIVING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THOUGH...AS WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE JET TYPICALLY COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL STREAK
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD DOME OF
AIR OVER OUR REGION BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BE FOUND
AHEAD OF A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE DEEPENING LIFT SUPPLIED BY A 140KT H25 JET AND WARM
ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS
FIRST DAY OF MARCH WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH IN MOST AREAS
TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF RAISING POPS...GOING WITH NEAR 90 IN THE WEST AND 80
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 20 POINTS HIGHER
THAN THE MAINSTREAM MOS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET...A
VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE PLOWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2/3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE BOOSTED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS TO 100.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH AND EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE TO END THE MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
500MB SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A
BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST STORM IN MORE THAN A MONTH THAT COULD BRING P-TYPE ISSUES BACK
TO THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO NEAR +8C BY TUESDAY NIGHT SO WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
SOME SNOW TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A
WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLE EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REMAIN BUT BOTH SHOW A DEEPENING LOW CUTTING
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. COLD
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
SNOWFALL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHER WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...BECOMING WINDY. MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
REGIONS.

THE COLD WEATHER HAS CAUSED CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. OUTSIDE OF FAST FLOWING
AREAS...VIRTUALLY ALL THE CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE FROZEN WITH A VERY
THICK ICE PACK IN PLACE. ICE EXCEEDS A FOOT IN MANY SLOW FLOWING
AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST AND NORTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PATH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA...POSSIBLY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. AT THIS
TIME...AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN MAY CAUSE
CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP AND POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN
HYDROLOGY...FRANKLIN
CLIMATE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 271950
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
250 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TOT HE NORTHEASTERN STATES
ON SATURDAY. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SETTLE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO HAS
NOW SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE AND WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT
DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. ADDITIONAL WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF ICE
COVERED LAKE ERIE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING
ABOUT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
NUMBERS ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS
INLAND AND NEAR MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE BITTER COLD OF RECENT WEEKS WILL RELAX DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL RESULT IN OUR REGION BEING
DOMINATED BY PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME AT THE
EXPENSE OF RECEIVING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THOUGH...AS WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE JET TYPICALLY COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL STREAK
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD DOME OF
AIR OVER OUR REGION BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BE FOUND
AHEAD OF A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE DEEPENING LIFT SUPPLIED BY A 140KT H25 JET AND WARM
ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS
FIRST DAY OF MARCH WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH IN MOST AREAS
TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF RAISING POPS...GOING WITH NEAR 90 IN THE WEST AND 80
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 20 POINTS HIGHER
THAN THE MAINSTREAM MOS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET...A
VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE PLOWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2/3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE BOOSTED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS TO 100.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH AND EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE TO END THE MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
500MB SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A
BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST STORM IN MORE THAN A MONTH THAT COULD BRING P-TYPE ISSUES BACK
TO THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO NEAR +8C BY TUESDAY NIGHT SO WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
SOME SNOW TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A
WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLE EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REMAIN BUT BOTH SHOW A DEEPENING LOW CUTTING
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. COLD
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
SNOWFALL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHER WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...BECOMING WINDY. MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
REGIONS.

THE COLD WEATHER HAS CAUSED CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. OUTSIDE OF FAST FLOWING
AREAS...VIRTUALLY ALL THE CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE FROZEN WITH A VERY
THICK ICE PACK IN PLACE. ICE EXCEEDS A FOOT IN MANY SLOW FLOWING
AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST AND NORTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PATH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA...POSSIBLY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. AT THIS
TIME...AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN MAY CAUSE
CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP AND POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN
HYDROLOGY...FRANKLIN
CLIMATE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 271950
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
250 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TOT HE NORTHEASTERN STATES
ON SATURDAY. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SETTLE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO HAS
NOW SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE AND WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT
DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. ADDITIONAL WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF ICE
COVERED LAKE ERIE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING
ABOUT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
NUMBERS ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS
INLAND AND NEAR MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE BITTER COLD OF RECENT WEEKS WILL RELAX DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL RESULT IN OUR REGION BEING
DOMINATED BY PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME AT THE
EXPENSE OF RECEIVING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THOUGH...AS WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE JET TYPICALLY COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL STREAK
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD DOME OF
AIR OVER OUR REGION BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BE FOUND
AHEAD OF A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE DEEPENING LIFT SUPPLIED BY A 140KT H25 JET AND WARM
ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS
FIRST DAY OF MARCH WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH IN MOST AREAS
TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF RAISING POPS...GOING WITH NEAR 90 IN THE WEST AND 80
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 20 POINTS HIGHER
THAN THE MAINSTREAM MOS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET...A
VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE PLOWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2/3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE BOOSTED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS TO 100.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH AND EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE TO END THE MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
500MB SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A
BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST STORM IN MORE THAN A MONTH THAT COULD BRING P-TYPE ISSUES BACK
TO THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO NEAR +8C BY TUESDAY NIGHT SO WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
SOME SNOW TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A
WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLE EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REMAIN BUT BOTH SHOW A DEEPENING LOW CUTTING
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. COLD
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
SNOWFALL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHER WEAK LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...BECOMING WINDY. MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
REGIONS.

THE COLD WEATHER HAS CAUSED CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. OUTSIDE OF FAST FLOWING
AREAS...VIRTUALLY ALL THE CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE FROZEN WITH A VERY
THICK ICE PACK IN PLACE. ICE EXCEEDS A FOOT IN MANY SLOW FLOWING
AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST AND NORTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PATH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA...POSSIBLY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. AT THIS
TIME...AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN MAY CAUSE
CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP AND POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN
HYDROLOGY...FRANKLIN
CLIMATE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 271913
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TOT HE NORTHEASTERN STATES
ON SATURDAY. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. OTHERWISE SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL REDIRECT ANY
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE TO THE
EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP IT TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ALONG THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS INLAND AND NEAR
MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE BITTER COLD OF RECENT WEEKS WILL RELAX DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL RESULT IN OUR REGION BEING
DOMINATED BY PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME AT THE
EXPENSE OF RECEIVING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THOUGH...AS WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE JET TYPICALLY COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL STREAK
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD DOME OF
AIR OVER OUR REGION BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BE FOUND
AHEAD OF A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE DEEPENING LIFT SUPPLIED BY A 140KT H25 JET AND WARM
ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS
FIRST DAY OF MARCH WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH IN MOST AREAS
TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF RAISING POPS...GOING WITH NEAR 90 IN THE WEST AND 80
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 20 POINTS HIGHER
THAN THE MAINSTREAM MOS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET...A
VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE PLOWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2/3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE BOOSTED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS TO 100.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH AND EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE TO END THE MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
500MB SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A
BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST STORM IN MORE THAN A MONTH THAT COULD BRING P-TYPE ISSUES BACK
TO THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO NEAR +8C BY TUESDAY NIGHT SO WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
SOME SNOW TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A
WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLE EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REMAIN BUT BOTH SHOW A DEEPENING LOW CUTTING
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. COLD
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
SNOWFALL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MVFR
CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...BECOMING WINDY. MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
REGIONS.

THE COLD WEATHER HAS CAUSED CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. OUTSIDE OF FAST FLOWING
AREAS...VIRTUALLY ALL THE CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE FROZEN WITH A VERY
THICK ICE PACK IN PLACE. ICE EXCEEDS A FOOT IN MANY SLOW FLOWING
AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST AND NORTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PATH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA...POSSIBLY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. AT THIS
TIME...AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN MAY CAUSE
CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP AND POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING.
&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN
HYDROLOGY...FRANKLIN
CLIMATE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 271913
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TOT HE NORTHEASTERN STATES
ON SATURDAY. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. OTHERWISE SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL REDIRECT ANY
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE TO THE
EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP IT TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ALONG THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS INLAND AND NEAR
MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE BITTER COLD OF RECENT WEEKS WILL RELAX DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL RESULT IN OUR REGION BEING
DOMINATED BY PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME AT THE
EXPENSE OF RECEIVING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THOUGH...AS WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE JET TYPICALLY COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL STREAK
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD DOME OF
AIR OVER OUR REGION BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BE FOUND
AHEAD OF A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE DEEPENING LIFT SUPPLIED BY A 140KT H25 JET AND WARM
ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS
FIRST DAY OF MARCH WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH IN MOST AREAS
TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF RAISING POPS...GOING WITH NEAR 90 IN THE WEST AND 80
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 20 POINTS HIGHER
THAN THE MAINSTREAM MOS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET...A
VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE PLOWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2/3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE BOOSTED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS TO 100.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH AND EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE TO END THE MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
500MB SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A
BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST STORM IN MORE THAN A MONTH THAT COULD BRING P-TYPE ISSUES BACK
TO THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO NEAR +8C BY TUESDAY NIGHT SO WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
SOME SNOW TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A
WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLE EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REMAIN BUT BOTH SHOW A DEEPENING LOW CUTTING
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. COLD
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
SNOWFALL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MVFR
CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...BECOMING WINDY. MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
REGIONS.

THE COLD WEATHER HAS CAUSED CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. OUTSIDE OF FAST FLOWING
AREAS...VIRTUALLY ALL THE CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE FROZEN WITH A VERY
THICK ICE PACK IN PLACE. ICE EXCEEDS A FOOT IN MANY SLOW FLOWING
AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST AND NORTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PATH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA...POSSIBLY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. AT THIS
TIME...AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN MAY CAUSE
CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP AND POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING.
&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN
HYDROLOGY...FRANKLIN
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 271913
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TOT HE NORTHEASTERN STATES
ON SATURDAY. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. OTHERWISE SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL REDIRECT ANY
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE TO THE
EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP IT TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ALONG THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS INLAND AND NEAR
MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE BITTER COLD OF RECENT WEEKS WILL RELAX DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL RESULT IN OUR REGION BEING
DOMINATED BY PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME AT THE
EXPENSE OF RECEIVING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THOUGH...AS WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE JET TYPICALLY COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL STREAK
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD DOME OF
AIR OVER OUR REGION BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BE FOUND
AHEAD OF A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE DEEPENING LIFT SUPPLIED BY A 140KT H25 JET AND WARM
ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS
FIRST DAY OF MARCH WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH IN MOST AREAS
TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF RAISING POPS...GOING WITH NEAR 90 IN THE WEST AND 80
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 20 POINTS HIGHER
THAN THE MAINSTREAM MOS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET...A
VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE PLOWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2/3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE BOOSTED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS TO 100.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH AND EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE TO END THE MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
500MB SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A
BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST STORM IN MORE THAN A MONTH THAT COULD BRING P-TYPE ISSUES BACK
TO THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO NEAR +8C BY TUESDAY NIGHT SO WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
SOME SNOW TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A
WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLE EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REMAIN BUT BOTH SHOW A DEEPENING LOW CUTTING
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. COLD
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
SNOWFALL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MVFR
CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...BECOMING WINDY. MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
REGIONS.

THE COLD WEATHER HAS CAUSED CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. OUTSIDE OF FAST FLOWING
AREAS...VIRTUALLY ALL THE CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE FROZEN WITH A VERY
THICK ICE PACK IN PLACE. ICE EXCEEDS A FOOT IN MANY SLOW FLOWING
AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST AND NORTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PATH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA...POSSIBLY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. AT THIS
TIME...AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN MAY CAUSE
CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP AND POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING.
&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN
HYDROLOGY...FRANKLIN
CLIMATE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 271913
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TOT HE NORTHEASTERN STATES
ON SATURDAY. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. OTHERWISE SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL REDIRECT ANY
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE TO THE
EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP IT TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ALONG THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS INLAND AND NEAR
MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE BITTER COLD OF RECENT WEEKS WILL RELAX DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL RESULT IN OUR REGION BEING
DOMINATED BY PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME AT THE
EXPENSE OF RECEIVING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THOUGH...AS WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE JET TYPICALLY COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL STREAK
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD DOME OF
AIR OVER OUR REGION BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BE FOUND
AHEAD OF A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE DEEPENING LIFT SUPPLIED BY A 140KT H25 JET AND WARM
ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS
FIRST DAY OF MARCH WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH IN MOST AREAS
TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF RAISING POPS...GOING WITH NEAR 90 IN THE WEST AND 80
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 20 POINTS HIGHER
THAN THE MAINSTREAM MOS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET...A
VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE PLOWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2/3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE BOOSTED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS TO 100.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH AND EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE TO END THE MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
500MB SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A
BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST STORM IN MORE THAN A MONTH THAT COULD BRING P-TYPE ISSUES BACK
TO THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO NEAR +8C BY TUESDAY NIGHT SO WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
SOME SNOW TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A
WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLE EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REMAIN BUT BOTH SHOW A DEEPENING LOW CUTTING
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. COLD
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
SNOWFALL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MVFR
CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...BECOMING WINDY. MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
REGIONS.

THE COLD WEATHER HAS CAUSED CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. OUTSIDE OF FAST FLOWING
AREAS...VIRTUALLY ALL THE CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE FROZEN WITH A VERY
THICK ICE PACK IN PLACE. ICE EXCEEDS A FOOT IN MANY SLOW FLOWING
AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST AND NORTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PATH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA...POSSIBLY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. AT THIS
TIME...AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN MAY CAUSE
CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP AND POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING.
&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN
HYDROLOGY...FRANKLIN
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 271913
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TOT HE NORTHEASTERN STATES
ON SATURDAY. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. OTHERWISE SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL REDIRECT ANY
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE TO THE
EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP IT TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ALONG THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS INLAND AND NEAR
MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE BITTER COLD OF RECENT WEEKS WILL RELAX DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL RESULT IN OUR REGION BEING
DOMINATED BY PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME AT THE
EXPENSE OF RECEIVING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THOUGH...AS WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE JET TYPICALLY COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL STREAK
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD DOME OF
AIR OVER OUR REGION BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BE FOUND
AHEAD OF A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE DEEPENING LIFT SUPPLIED BY A 140KT H25 JET AND WARM
ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS
FIRST DAY OF MARCH WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH IN MOST AREAS
TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF RAISING POPS...GOING WITH NEAR 90 IN THE WEST AND 80
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 20 POINTS HIGHER
THAN THE MAINSTREAM MOS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET...A
VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE PLOWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2/3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE BOOSTED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS TO 100.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH AND EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE TO END THE MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
500MB SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A
BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST STORM IN MORE THAN A MONTH THAT COULD BRING P-TYPE ISSUES BACK
TO THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO NEAR +8C BY TUESDAY NIGHT SO WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
SOME SNOW TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A
WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLE EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REMAIN BUT BOTH SHOW A DEEPENING LOW CUTTING
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. COLD
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
SNOWFALL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MVFR
CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...BECOMING WINDY. MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
REGIONS.

THE COLD WEATHER HAS CAUSED CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. OUTSIDE OF FAST FLOWING
AREAS...VIRTUALLY ALL THE CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE FROZEN WITH A VERY
THICK ICE PACK IN PLACE. ICE EXCEEDS A FOOT IN MANY SLOW FLOWING
AREAS.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST AND NORTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PATH WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA...POSSIBLY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. AT THIS
TIME...AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN MAY CAUSE
CREEK AND RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP AND POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING.
&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN
HYDROLOGY...FRANKLIN
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBGM 271909
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
209 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE
COLD AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. SNOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SEVERAL INCHES
EXPECTED BEFORE ENDING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATED AT 11 AM... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY JUST
SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING. A SNOW
BAND OVER LAKE ONTARIO CAN BE SEEN WHICH MAY BE IMPACTING THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE WELL NORTHWEST OF SYRACUSE. THIS BAND MAY
BRING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO OSWEGO COUNTY LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT NO EFFECT IN OUR AREA. BASICALLY JUST A
PARTLY SUNNY UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY UNFOLDING WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS TO NEAR 20. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

400 AM UPDATE...
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.
BEYOND DAYBREAK DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL PUT AN END TO MOST OF
THIS. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A LIGHT DUSTING.

COLD AIR WILL AGAIN BE THE BIG STORY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE TEENS. TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY, IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO DROP BELOW ZERO.
WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR CALM) WIND CHILLS FOR THE
MOST PART WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AND IT WILL JUST BE PLAIN OLD COLD
AIR ITSELF. I DID LEAVE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES IN THE HWO BECAUSE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE CATSKILLS
BACK THROUGH CORTLAND COUNTY HAVE ENOUGH OF A BREEZE (4 TO 5 MPH)
TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AT THE LOW END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE (-15
TO -17). AFTER WHAT WE HAVE BEEN THROUGH, NOT NEARLY AS BAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
400 AM UPDATE...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND TO OUR WEST BY
12Z MONDAY WILL PRODUCE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS TYPE OF TRACK/INTENSITY DOESN`T SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. FOR A FIRST SNOW ESTIMATE WENT UNDER WPC
GUIDANCE WITH A 2 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL AREAWIDE. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE ONSET TIME WITH THE GFS HOLDING OFF PRECIP
UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDAY EVENING, WITH THE EURO FASTER AND THE
CANADIAN A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH AN AFTERNOON ONSET. OVERALL
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES TRANSITORY.
POTENT STORM FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION TYPES LIKELY. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. AGAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE...BUT AVERAGE IS ABOVE FREEZING NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AM BEFORE THE STORM MOVES NE.
RIDGING ALOFT WITH WAA AT MID LEVELS. OVERRUNNING PRECIP STARTS AS
SNOW TUESDAY AFTN AND EVE. THE GFS IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS FASTER
THAN THE EURO. TUESDAY OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS GO ABOVE 0C SO
CHANGEOVER TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN. WARM AIR HEADS TO SURFACE
WEDNESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN EVERYWHERE. THE STORM
TRACK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST 2 OR 3 DAYS. MOVING NE INTO SE
ONTARIO WED AM. COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH WED PM CHANGING THE PRECIP
TO SNOW.

CAA THU NGT AND FRIDAY SO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY SO DRYING ESPECIALLY NE PA. GFS
AND EURO AGREE ON A WEAK CLIPPER MOVING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA
FRIDAY NGT WHICH MAY BRUSH THE NY ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1230 PM UPDATE...

STILL SOME FLURRIES THAT SHOULD AFFECT SYR AND RME. WEAK WNW FLOW
IS CAUSING MVFR CLOUDS IN SYR THIS AFTN. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
WEST SO RME SHOULD HAVE MVFR CLOUDS THIS EVE.

NE PA AND SRN TIER OF NY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED TO CLEAR THIS
AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT SENDING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES AND CLEARING SKIES. CLEAR SKEIS REMAIN INTO
SATURDAY.

W TO NW WINDS AT 7 TO 10 KTS BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START GOING TO A MIX THEN
RAIN WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 271909
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
209 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE
COLD AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. SNOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SEVERAL INCHES
EXPECTED BEFORE ENDING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATED AT 11 AM... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY JUST
SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING. A SNOW
BAND OVER LAKE ONTARIO CAN BE SEEN WHICH MAY BE IMPACTING THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE WELL NORTHWEST OF SYRACUSE. THIS BAND MAY
BRING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO OSWEGO COUNTY LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT NO EFFECT IN OUR AREA. BASICALLY JUST A
PARTLY SUNNY UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY UNFOLDING WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS TO NEAR 20. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

400 AM UPDATE...
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.
BEYOND DAYBREAK DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL PUT AN END TO MOST OF
THIS. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A LIGHT DUSTING.

COLD AIR WILL AGAIN BE THE BIG STORY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE TEENS. TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY, IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO DROP BELOW ZERO.
WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR CALM) WIND CHILLS FOR THE
MOST PART WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AND IT WILL JUST BE PLAIN OLD COLD
AIR ITSELF. I DID LEAVE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES IN THE HWO BECAUSE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE CATSKILLS
BACK THROUGH CORTLAND COUNTY HAVE ENOUGH OF A BREEZE (4 TO 5 MPH)
TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AT THE LOW END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE (-15
TO -17). AFTER WHAT WE HAVE BEEN THROUGH, NOT NEARLY AS BAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
400 AM UPDATE...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND TO OUR WEST BY
12Z MONDAY WILL PRODUCE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS TYPE OF TRACK/INTENSITY DOESN`T SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. FOR A FIRST SNOW ESTIMATE WENT UNDER WPC
GUIDANCE WITH A 2 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL AREAWIDE. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE ONSET TIME WITH THE GFS HOLDING OFF PRECIP
UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDAY EVENING, WITH THE EURO FASTER AND THE
CANADIAN A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH AN AFTERNOON ONSET. OVERALL
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES TRANSITORY.
POTENT STORM FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION TYPES LIKELY. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. AGAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE...BUT AVERAGE IS ABOVE FREEZING NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AM BEFORE THE STORM MOVES NE.
RIDGING ALOFT WITH WAA AT MID LEVELS. OVERRUNNING PRECIP STARTS AS
SNOW TUESDAY AFTN AND EVE. THE GFS IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS FASTER
THAN THE EURO. TUESDAY OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS GO ABOVE 0C SO
CHANGEOVER TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN. WARM AIR HEADS TO SURFACE
WEDNESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN EVERYWHERE. THE STORM
TRACK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST 2 OR 3 DAYS. MOVING NE INTO SE
ONTARIO WED AM. COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH WED PM CHANGING THE PRECIP
TO SNOW.

CAA THU NGT AND FRIDAY SO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY SO DRYING ESPECIALLY NE PA. GFS
AND EURO AGREE ON A WEAK CLIPPER MOVING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA
FRIDAY NGT WHICH MAY BRUSH THE NY ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1230 PM UPDATE...

STILL SOME FLURRIES THAT SHOULD AFFECT SYR AND RME. WEAK WNW FLOW
IS CAUSING MVFR CLOUDS IN SYR THIS AFTN. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
WEST SO RME SHOULD HAVE MVFR CLOUDS THIS EVE.

NE PA AND SRN TIER OF NY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED TO CLEAR THIS
AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT SENDING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES AND CLEARING SKIES. CLEAR SKEIS REMAIN INTO
SATURDAY.

W TO NW WINDS AT 7 TO 10 KTS BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START GOING TO A MIX THEN
RAIN WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 271909
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
209 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE
COLD AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. SNOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SEVERAL INCHES
EXPECTED BEFORE ENDING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATED AT 11 AM... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY JUST
SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING. A SNOW
BAND OVER LAKE ONTARIO CAN BE SEEN WHICH MAY BE IMPACTING THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE WELL NORTHWEST OF SYRACUSE. THIS BAND MAY
BRING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO OSWEGO COUNTY LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT NO EFFECT IN OUR AREA. BASICALLY JUST A
PARTLY SUNNY UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY UNFOLDING WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS TO NEAR 20. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

400 AM UPDATE...
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.
BEYOND DAYBREAK DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL PUT AN END TO MOST OF
THIS. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A LIGHT DUSTING.

COLD AIR WILL AGAIN BE THE BIG STORY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE TEENS. TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY, IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO DROP BELOW ZERO.
WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR CALM) WIND CHILLS FOR THE
MOST PART WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AND IT WILL JUST BE PLAIN OLD COLD
AIR ITSELF. I DID LEAVE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES IN THE HWO BECAUSE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE CATSKILLS
BACK THROUGH CORTLAND COUNTY HAVE ENOUGH OF A BREEZE (4 TO 5 MPH)
TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AT THE LOW END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE (-15
TO -17). AFTER WHAT WE HAVE BEEN THROUGH, NOT NEARLY AS BAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
400 AM UPDATE...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND TO OUR WEST BY
12Z MONDAY WILL PRODUCE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS TYPE OF TRACK/INTENSITY DOESN`T SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. FOR A FIRST SNOW ESTIMATE WENT UNDER WPC
GUIDANCE WITH A 2 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL AREAWIDE. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE ONSET TIME WITH THE GFS HOLDING OFF PRECIP
UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDAY EVENING, WITH THE EURO FASTER AND THE
CANADIAN A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH AN AFTERNOON ONSET. OVERALL
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES TRANSITORY.
POTENT STORM FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION TYPES LIKELY. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. AGAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE...BUT AVERAGE IS ABOVE FREEZING NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AM BEFORE THE STORM MOVES NE.
RIDGING ALOFT WITH WAA AT MID LEVELS. OVERRUNNING PRECIP STARTS AS
SNOW TUESDAY AFTN AND EVE. THE GFS IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS FASTER
THAN THE EURO. TUESDAY OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS GO ABOVE 0C SO
CHANGEOVER TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN. WARM AIR HEADS TO SURFACE
WEDNESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN EVERYWHERE. THE STORM
TRACK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST 2 OR 3 DAYS. MOVING NE INTO SE
ONTARIO WED AM. COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH WED PM CHANGING THE PRECIP
TO SNOW.

CAA THU NGT AND FRIDAY SO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY SO DRYING ESPECIALLY NE PA. GFS
AND EURO AGREE ON A WEAK CLIPPER MOVING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA
FRIDAY NGT WHICH MAY BRUSH THE NY ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1230 PM UPDATE...

STILL SOME FLURRIES THAT SHOULD AFFECT SYR AND RME. WEAK WNW FLOW
IS CAUSING MVFR CLOUDS IN SYR THIS AFTN. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
WEST SO RME SHOULD HAVE MVFR CLOUDS THIS EVE.

NE PA AND SRN TIER OF NY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED TO CLEAR THIS
AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT SENDING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES AND CLEARING SKIES. CLEAR SKEIS REMAIN INTO
SATURDAY.

W TO NW WINDS AT 7 TO 10 KTS BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START GOING TO A MIX THEN
RAIN WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 271909
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
209 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE
COLD AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. SNOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SEVERAL INCHES
EXPECTED BEFORE ENDING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATED AT 11 AM... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY JUST
SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING. A SNOW
BAND OVER LAKE ONTARIO CAN BE SEEN WHICH MAY BE IMPACTING THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE WELL NORTHWEST OF SYRACUSE. THIS BAND MAY
BRING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO OSWEGO COUNTY LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT NO EFFECT IN OUR AREA. BASICALLY JUST A
PARTLY SUNNY UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY UNFOLDING WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS TO NEAR 20. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

400 AM UPDATE...
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.
BEYOND DAYBREAK DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL PUT AN END TO MOST OF
THIS. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A LIGHT DUSTING.

COLD AIR WILL AGAIN BE THE BIG STORY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE TEENS. TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY, IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO DROP BELOW ZERO.
WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR CALM) WIND CHILLS FOR THE
MOST PART WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AND IT WILL JUST BE PLAIN OLD COLD
AIR ITSELF. I DID LEAVE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES IN THE HWO BECAUSE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE CATSKILLS
BACK THROUGH CORTLAND COUNTY HAVE ENOUGH OF A BREEZE (4 TO 5 MPH)
TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AT THE LOW END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE (-15
TO -17). AFTER WHAT WE HAVE BEEN THROUGH, NOT NEARLY AS BAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
400 AM UPDATE...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND TO OUR WEST BY
12Z MONDAY WILL PRODUCE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS TYPE OF TRACK/INTENSITY DOESN`T SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. FOR A FIRST SNOW ESTIMATE WENT UNDER WPC
GUIDANCE WITH A 2 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL AREAWIDE. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE ONSET TIME WITH THE GFS HOLDING OFF PRECIP
UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDAY EVENING, WITH THE EURO FASTER AND THE
CANADIAN A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH AN AFTERNOON ONSET. OVERALL
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES TRANSITORY.
POTENT STORM FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION TYPES LIKELY. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. AGAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE...BUT AVERAGE IS ABOVE FREEZING NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AM BEFORE THE STORM MOVES NE.
RIDGING ALOFT WITH WAA AT MID LEVELS. OVERRUNNING PRECIP STARTS AS
SNOW TUESDAY AFTN AND EVE. THE GFS IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS FASTER
THAN THE EURO. TUESDAY OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS GO ABOVE 0C SO
CHANGEOVER TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN. WARM AIR HEADS TO SURFACE
WEDNESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN EVERYWHERE. THE STORM
TRACK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST 2 OR 3 DAYS. MOVING NE INTO SE
ONTARIO WED AM. COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH WED PM CHANGING THE PRECIP
TO SNOW.

CAA THU NGT AND FRIDAY SO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY SO DRYING ESPECIALLY NE PA. GFS
AND EURO AGREE ON A WEAK CLIPPER MOVING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA
FRIDAY NGT WHICH MAY BRUSH THE NY ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1230 PM UPDATE...

STILL SOME FLURRIES THAT SHOULD AFFECT SYR AND RME. WEAK WNW FLOW
IS CAUSING MVFR CLOUDS IN SYR THIS AFTN. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
WEST SO RME SHOULD HAVE MVFR CLOUDS THIS EVE.

NE PA AND SRN TIER OF NY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED TO CLEAR THIS
AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT SENDING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES AND CLEARING SKIES. CLEAR SKEIS REMAIN INTO
SATURDAY.

W TO NW WINDS AT 7 TO 10 KTS BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START GOING TO A MIX THEN
RAIN WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 271909
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
209 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE
COLD AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. SNOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SEVERAL INCHES
EXPECTED BEFORE ENDING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATED AT 11 AM... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY JUST
SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING. A SNOW
BAND OVER LAKE ONTARIO CAN BE SEEN WHICH MAY BE IMPACTING THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE WELL NORTHWEST OF SYRACUSE. THIS BAND MAY
BRING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO OSWEGO COUNTY LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT NO EFFECT IN OUR AREA. BASICALLY JUST A
PARTLY SUNNY UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY UNFOLDING WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS TO NEAR 20. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

400 AM UPDATE...
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.
BEYOND DAYBREAK DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL PUT AN END TO MOST OF
THIS. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A LIGHT DUSTING.

COLD AIR WILL AGAIN BE THE BIG STORY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE TEENS. TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY, IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO DROP BELOW ZERO.
WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR CALM) WIND CHILLS FOR THE
MOST PART WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AND IT WILL JUST BE PLAIN OLD COLD
AIR ITSELF. I DID LEAVE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES IN THE HWO BECAUSE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE CATSKILLS
BACK THROUGH CORTLAND COUNTY HAVE ENOUGH OF A BREEZE (4 TO 5 MPH)
TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AT THE LOW END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE (-15
TO -17). AFTER WHAT WE HAVE BEEN THROUGH, NOT NEARLY AS BAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
400 AM UPDATE...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND TO OUR WEST BY
12Z MONDAY WILL PRODUCE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS TYPE OF TRACK/INTENSITY DOESN`T SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. FOR A FIRST SNOW ESTIMATE WENT UNDER WPC
GUIDANCE WITH A 2 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL AREAWIDE. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE ONSET TIME WITH THE GFS HOLDING OFF PRECIP
UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDAY EVENING, WITH THE EURO FASTER AND THE
CANADIAN A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH AN AFTERNOON ONSET. OVERALL
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES TRANSITORY.
POTENT STORM FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION TYPES LIKELY. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. AGAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE...BUT AVERAGE IS ABOVE FREEZING NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AM BEFORE THE STORM MOVES NE.
RIDGING ALOFT WITH WAA AT MID LEVELS. OVERRUNNING PRECIP STARTS AS
SNOW TUESDAY AFTN AND EVE. THE GFS IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS FASTER
THAN THE EURO. TUESDAY OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS GO ABOVE 0C SO
CHANGEOVER TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN. WARM AIR HEADS TO SURFACE
WEDNESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN EVERYWHERE. THE STORM
TRACK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST 2 OR 3 DAYS. MOVING NE INTO SE
ONTARIO WED AM. COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH WED PM CHANGING THE PRECIP
TO SNOW.

CAA THU NGT AND FRIDAY SO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY SO DRYING ESPECIALLY NE PA. GFS
AND EURO AGREE ON A WEAK CLIPPER MOVING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA
FRIDAY NGT WHICH MAY BRUSH THE NY ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1230 PM UPDATE...

STILL SOME FLURRIES THAT SHOULD AFFECT SYR AND RME. WEAK WNW FLOW
IS CAUSING MVFR CLOUDS IN SYR THIS AFTN. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
WEST SO RME SHOULD HAVE MVFR CLOUDS THIS EVE.

NE PA AND SRN TIER OF NY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED TO CLEAR THIS
AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT SENDING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES AND CLEARING SKIES. CLEAR SKEIS REMAIN INTO
SATURDAY.

W TO NW WINDS AT 7 TO 10 KTS BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START GOING TO A MIX THEN
RAIN WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 271909
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
209 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE
COLD AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. SNOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SEVERAL INCHES
EXPECTED BEFORE ENDING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATED AT 11 AM... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY JUST
SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING. A SNOW
BAND OVER LAKE ONTARIO CAN BE SEEN WHICH MAY BE IMPACTING THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE WELL NORTHWEST OF SYRACUSE. THIS BAND MAY
BRING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO OSWEGO COUNTY LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT NO EFFECT IN OUR AREA. BASICALLY JUST A
PARTLY SUNNY UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY UNFOLDING WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS TO NEAR 20. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

400 AM UPDATE...
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.
BEYOND DAYBREAK DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL PUT AN END TO MOST OF
THIS. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A LIGHT DUSTING.

COLD AIR WILL AGAIN BE THE BIG STORY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE TEENS. TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY, IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO DROP BELOW ZERO.
WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR CALM) WIND CHILLS FOR THE
MOST PART WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AND IT WILL JUST BE PLAIN OLD COLD
AIR ITSELF. I DID LEAVE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES IN THE HWO BECAUSE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE CATSKILLS
BACK THROUGH CORTLAND COUNTY HAVE ENOUGH OF A BREEZE (4 TO 5 MPH)
TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AT THE LOW END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE (-15
TO -17). AFTER WHAT WE HAVE BEEN THROUGH, NOT NEARLY AS BAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
400 AM UPDATE...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND TO OUR WEST BY
12Z MONDAY WILL PRODUCE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS TYPE OF TRACK/INTENSITY DOESN`T SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. FOR A FIRST SNOW ESTIMATE WENT UNDER WPC
GUIDANCE WITH A 2 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL AREAWIDE. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE ONSET TIME WITH THE GFS HOLDING OFF PRECIP
UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDAY EVENING, WITH THE EURO FASTER AND THE
CANADIAN A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH AN AFTERNOON ONSET. OVERALL
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES TRANSITORY.
POTENT STORM FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION TYPES LIKELY. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. AGAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE...BUT AVERAGE IS ABOVE FREEZING NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AM BEFORE THE STORM MOVES NE.
RIDGING ALOFT WITH WAA AT MID LEVELS. OVERRUNNING PRECIP STARTS AS
SNOW TUESDAY AFTN AND EVE. THE GFS IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS FASTER
THAN THE EURO. TUESDAY OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS GO ABOVE 0C SO
CHANGEOVER TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN. WARM AIR HEADS TO SURFACE
WEDNESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN EVERYWHERE. THE STORM
TRACK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST 2 OR 3 DAYS. MOVING NE INTO SE
ONTARIO WED AM. COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH WED PM CHANGING THE PRECIP
TO SNOW.

CAA THU NGT AND FRIDAY SO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY SO DRYING ESPECIALLY NE PA. GFS
AND EURO AGREE ON A WEAK CLIPPER MOVING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA
FRIDAY NGT WHICH MAY BRUSH THE NY ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1230 PM UPDATE...

STILL SOME FLURRIES THAT SHOULD AFFECT SYR AND RME. WEAK WNW FLOW
IS CAUSING MVFR CLOUDS IN SYR THIS AFTN. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
WEST SO RME SHOULD HAVE MVFR CLOUDS THIS EVE.

NE PA AND SRN TIER OF NY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED TO CLEAR THIS
AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT SENDING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES AND CLEARING SKIES. CLEAR SKEIS REMAIN INTO
SATURDAY.

W TO NW WINDS AT 7 TO 10 KTS BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START GOING TO A MIX THEN
RAIN WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC






000
FXUS61 KBTV 271752
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH QUIET AND COLD WEATHER.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL BE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1227 PM EST FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE PROVIDING SUNNY BUT COLD
CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING LOWS INCLUDED -8F
AT BTV AND -19F AT MSS. TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING QUICKLY WITH
FULL SUN BUT WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE 15-20F RANGE...WHICH
REMAINS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE FEBRUARY. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT WITH AFTERNOON MIXING WILL
BECOME W-NW AT 5-10 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET. POPS NIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EST FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLANS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND SNOW WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST. SNOWFALL WILL
BE LIGHT WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EST FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND IT WILL BE
FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY HOWEVER...AFFECTING MAINLY THE WESTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE JUST A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

DRY AND A BIT COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS THEN
QUICKLY RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR TO STREAM INTO
FORECAST AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
AROUND +4C ON WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT TO
TRANSITION TO A MIX IN MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND .75 INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE
PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LOW DEPARTS TOP THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS REGION
AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TODAY WITH
SKIES TRENDING TO SKC BY 00Z SATURDAY. A FEW LIGHT HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD BUILD INTO DURING THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. WINDS WEST
TO NORTHWEST WILL STAY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271752
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH QUIET AND COLD WEATHER.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL BE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1227 PM EST FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE PROVIDING SUNNY BUT COLD
CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING LOWS INCLUDED -8F
AT BTV AND -19F AT MSS. TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING QUICKLY WITH
FULL SUN BUT WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE 15-20F RANGE...WHICH
REMAINS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE FEBRUARY. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT WITH AFTERNOON MIXING WILL
BECOME W-NW AT 5-10 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET. POPS NIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EST FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLANS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND SNOW WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST. SNOWFALL WILL
BE LIGHT WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EST FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND IT WILL BE
FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY HOWEVER...AFFECTING MAINLY THE WESTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE JUST A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

DRY AND A BIT COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS THEN
QUICKLY RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR TO STREAM INTO
FORECAST AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
AROUND +4C ON WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT TO
TRANSITION TO A MIX IN MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND .75 INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE
PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LOW DEPARTS TOP THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS REGION
AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TODAY WITH
SKIES TRENDING TO SKC BY 00Z SATURDAY. A FEW LIGHT HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD BUILD INTO DURING THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. WINDS WEST
TO NORTHWEST WILL STAY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...DEAL



000
FXUS61 KBTV 271752
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH QUIET AND COLD WEATHER.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL BE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1227 PM EST FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE PROVIDING SUNNY BUT COLD
CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING LOWS INCLUDED -8F
AT BTV AND -19F AT MSS. TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING QUICKLY WITH
FULL SUN BUT WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE 15-20F RANGE...WHICH
REMAINS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE FEBRUARY. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT WITH AFTERNOON MIXING WILL
BECOME W-NW AT 5-10 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET. POPS NIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EST FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLANS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND SNOW WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST. SNOWFALL WILL
BE LIGHT WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EST FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND IT WILL BE
FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY HOWEVER...AFFECTING MAINLY THE WESTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE JUST A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

DRY AND A BIT COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS THEN
QUICKLY RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR TO STREAM INTO
FORECAST AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
AROUND +4C ON WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT TO
TRANSITION TO A MIX IN MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND .75 INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE
PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LOW DEPARTS TOP THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS REGION
AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TODAY WITH
SKIES TRENDING TO SKC BY 00Z SATURDAY. A FEW LIGHT HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD BUILD INTO DURING THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. WINDS WEST
TO NORTHWEST WILL STAY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KALY 271751
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1251 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

EXPECT SKIES THIS AFTERNOON TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
BASED ON THE SATELLITE PICTURE. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING THE SKIES TO CLEAR. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN BELOW NORMAL AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF -15 TO -19 DEGREES C PERSIST.
THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RIDGE IN FROM PA TOMORROW.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
18Z/28. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. CLEARING AND SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 06Z/28.  THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE SKIES MAINLY CLEAR LATE TOMORROW MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR SOME SCT CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W/NW TO NE AT 4-9 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AT 5 KTS TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 KTS OR SO WILL PREVAIL LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 271751
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1251 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

EXPECT SKIES THIS AFTERNOON TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
BASED ON THE SATELLITE PICTURE. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING THE SKIES TO CLEAR. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN BELOW NORMAL AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF -15 TO -19 DEGREES C PERSIST.
THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RIDGE IN FROM PA TOMORROW.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
18Z/28. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. CLEARING AND SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 06Z/28.  THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE SKIES MAINLY CLEAR LATE TOMORROW MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR SOME SCT CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W/NW TO NE AT 4-9 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AT 5 KTS TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 KTS OR SO WILL PREVAIL LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 271751
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1251 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

EXPECT SKIES THIS AFTERNOON TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
BASED ON THE SATELLITE PICTURE. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING THE SKIES TO CLEAR. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN BELOW NORMAL AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF -15 TO -19 DEGREES C PERSIST.
THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RIDGE IN FROM PA TOMORROW.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
18Z/28. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. CLEARING AND SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 06Z/28.  THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE SKIES MAINLY CLEAR LATE TOMORROW MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR SOME SCT CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W/NW TO NE AT 4-9 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AT 5 KTS TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 KTS OR SO WILL PREVAIL LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 271751
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1251 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

EXPECT SKIES THIS AFTERNOON TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
BASED ON THE SATELLITE PICTURE. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING THE SKIES TO CLEAR. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN BELOW NORMAL AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF -15 TO -19 DEGREES C PERSIST.
THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RIDGE IN FROM PA TOMORROW.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
18Z/28. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. CLEARING AND SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 06Z/28.  THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE SKIES MAINLY CLEAR LATE TOMORROW MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR SOME SCT CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE W/NW TO NE AT 4-9 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AT 5 KTS TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 KTS OR SO WILL PREVAIL LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KOKX 271746
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1246 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. A QUICK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HAVE FURTHER
REDUCED CLOUD COVER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH THIS UPDATE...SO
EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. NUDGED
HIGH TEMP FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST SPOTS BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS AND EXPECTATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS MOSTLY
25-30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN A CLEAR SKY. WINDS BECOME
LIGHTER THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND FOR SOME SUBURBAN AREAS...CALM AT
TIMES. THIS ALONG WITH A DECENT SNOW PACK WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
DROP TO AROUND ZERO FOR SOME NORTHERN SUBURBS...WITH SINGLE
DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE SUBURBS. THE CITY AND IMMEDIATE
SURROUNDING AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 10-15. BECAUSE WINDS
WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE IN THE CITY...WIND CHILLS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE ZERO THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO NO SPS PLANNED FOR THE
CITY.

FOR SATURDAY...SUNNY AND COLD WITH TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 1045 BY
00Z SUN...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST W OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING
CALM ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COASTS AND CITY BY DARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE
SYSTEM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S
WITH NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING A FEW DEGREES IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER ON MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WARMER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS
SYSTEM. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN RISE TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN OVER THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

N-NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 155-20KT POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 320-020 TRUE
(330-030 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
FROM 20-2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 310-010 TRUE
(320-020 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
FROM 20-2Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 330-020 TRUE
(340-030 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
FROM 20-2Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT FROM 20-2Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT FROM 20-2Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT FROM 20-2Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY MORNING...MVFR OR LOWER IN -SN CHANGING
TO A WINTRY MIX S TERMINALS AND -SN N TERMINALS. SE WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NW WINDS G15-25KT
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN -SN
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RAIN LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR LATE WEDNESDAY. LLWS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AROUND 5 FT TODAY ON THE OCEAN WITH SCA REMAINING IN PLACE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND SAT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE W. BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. SEAS
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SNOW EVENT LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/FIG
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC/JMC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JMC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG








000
FXUS61 KOKX 271746
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1246 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. A QUICK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HAVE FURTHER
REDUCED CLOUD COVER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH THIS UPDATE...SO
EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. NUDGED
HIGH TEMP FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST SPOTS BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS AND EXPECTATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS MOSTLY
25-30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN A CLEAR SKY. WINDS BECOME
LIGHTER THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND FOR SOME SUBURBAN AREAS...CALM AT
TIMES. THIS ALONG WITH A DECENT SNOW PACK WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
DROP TO AROUND ZERO FOR SOME NORTHERN SUBURBS...WITH SINGLE
DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE SUBURBS. THE CITY AND IMMEDIATE
SURROUNDING AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 10-15. BECAUSE WINDS
WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE IN THE CITY...WIND CHILLS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE ZERO THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO NO SPS PLANNED FOR THE
CITY.

FOR SATURDAY...SUNNY AND COLD WITH TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 1045 BY
00Z SUN...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST W OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING
CALM ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COASTS AND CITY BY DARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE
SYSTEM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S
WITH NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING A FEW DEGREES IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER ON MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WARMER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS
SYSTEM. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN RISE TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN OVER THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

N-NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 155-20KT POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 320-020 TRUE
(330-030 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
FROM 20-2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 310-010 TRUE
(320-020 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
FROM 20-2Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 330-020 TRUE
(340-030 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
FROM 20-2Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT FROM 20-2Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT FROM 20-2Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT FROM 20-2Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY MORNING...MVFR OR LOWER IN -SN CHANGING
TO A WINTRY MIX S TERMINALS AND -SN N TERMINALS. SE WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NW WINDS G15-25KT
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN -SN
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RAIN LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR LATE WEDNESDAY. LLWS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AROUND 5 FT TODAY ON THE OCEAN WITH SCA REMAINING IN PLACE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND SAT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE W. BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. SEAS
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SNOW EVENT LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/FIG
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC/JMC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JMC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG









000
FXUS61 KOKX 271746
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1246 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. A QUICK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HAVE FURTHER
REDUCED CLOUD COVER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH THIS UPDATE...SO
EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. NUDGED
HIGH TEMP FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST SPOTS BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS AND EXPECTATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS MOSTLY
25-30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN A CLEAR SKY. WINDS BECOME
LIGHTER THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND FOR SOME SUBURBAN AREAS...CALM AT
TIMES. THIS ALONG WITH A DECENT SNOW PACK WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
DROP TO AROUND ZERO FOR SOME NORTHERN SUBURBS...WITH SINGLE
DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE SUBURBS. THE CITY AND IMMEDIATE
SURROUNDING AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 10-15. BECAUSE WINDS
WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE IN THE CITY...WIND CHILLS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE ZERO THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO NO SPS PLANNED FOR THE
CITY.

FOR SATURDAY...SUNNY AND COLD WITH TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 1045 BY
00Z SUN...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST W OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING
CALM ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COASTS AND CITY BY DARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE
SYSTEM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S
WITH NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING A FEW DEGREES IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER ON MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WARMER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS
SYSTEM. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN RISE TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN OVER THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

N-NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 155-20KT POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 320-020 TRUE
(330-030 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
FROM 20-2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 310-010 TRUE
(320-020 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
FROM 20-2Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 330-020 TRUE
(340-030 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
FROM 20-2Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT FROM 20-2Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT FROM 20-2Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT FROM 20-2Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY MORNING...MVFR OR LOWER IN -SN CHANGING
TO A WINTRY MIX S TERMINALS AND -SN N TERMINALS. SE WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NW WINDS G15-25KT
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN -SN
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RAIN LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR LATE WEDNESDAY. LLWS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AROUND 5 FT TODAY ON THE OCEAN WITH SCA REMAINING IN PLACE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND SAT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE W. BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. SEAS
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SNOW EVENT LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/FIG
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC/JMC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JMC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG









000
FXUS61 KOKX 271746
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1246 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. A QUICK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HAVE FURTHER
REDUCED CLOUD COVER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH THIS UPDATE...SO
EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. NUDGED
HIGH TEMP FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST SPOTS BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS AND EXPECTATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS MOSTLY
25-30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN A CLEAR SKY. WINDS BECOME
LIGHTER THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND FOR SOME SUBURBAN AREAS...CALM AT
TIMES. THIS ALONG WITH A DECENT SNOW PACK WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
DROP TO AROUND ZERO FOR SOME NORTHERN SUBURBS...WITH SINGLE
DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE SUBURBS. THE CITY AND IMMEDIATE
SURROUNDING AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 10-15. BECAUSE WINDS
WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE IN THE CITY...WIND CHILLS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE ZERO THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO NO SPS PLANNED FOR THE
CITY.

FOR SATURDAY...SUNNY AND COLD WITH TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 1045 BY
00Z SUN...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST W OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING
CALM ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COASTS AND CITY BY DARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE
SYSTEM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S
WITH NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING A FEW DEGREES IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER ON MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WARMER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS
SYSTEM. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN RISE TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN OVER THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

N-NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 155-20KT POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 320-020 TRUE
(330-030 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
FROM 20-2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 310-010 TRUE
(320-020 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
FROM 20-2Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 330-020 TRUE
(340-030 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
FROM 20-2Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT FROM 20-2Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT FROM 20-2Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT FROM 20-2Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY MORNING...MVFR OR LOWER IN -SN CHANGING
TO A WINTRY MIX S TERMINALS AND -SN N TERMINALS. SE WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NW WINDS G15-25KT
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN -SN
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RAIN LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR LATE WEDNESDAY. LLWS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AROUND 5 FT TODAY ON THE OCEAN WITH SCA REMAINING IN PLACE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND SAT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE W. BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. SEAS
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SNOW EVENT LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/FIG
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC/JMC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JMC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG









000
FXUS61 KOKX 271746
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1246 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. A QUICK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HAVE FURTHER
REDUCED CLOUD COVER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH THIS UPDATE...SO
EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. NUDGED
HIGH TEMP FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST SPOTS BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS AND EXPECTATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS MOSTLY
25-30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN A CLEAR SKY. WINDS BECOME
LIGHTER THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND FOR SOME SUBURBAN AREAS...CALM AT
TIMES. THIS ALONG WITH A DECENT SNOW PACK WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
DROP TO AROUND ZERO FOR SOME NORTHERN SUBURBS...WITH SINGLE
DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE SUBURBS. THE CITY AND IMMEDIATE
SURROUNDING AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 10-15. BECAUSE WINDS
WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE IN THE CITY...WIND CHILLS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE ZERO THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO NO SPS PLANNED FOR THE
CITY.

FOR SATURDAY...SUNNY AND COLD WITH TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 1045 BY
00Z SUN...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST W OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING
CALM ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COASTS AND CITY BY DARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE
SYSTEM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S
WITH NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING A FEW DEGREES IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER ON MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WARMER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS
SYSTEM. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN RISE TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN OVER THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

N-NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 155-20KT POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 320-020 TRUE
(330-030 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
FROM 20-2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 310-010 TRUE
(320-020 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
FROM 20-2Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 330-020 TRUE
(340-030 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
FROM 20-2Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT FROM 20-2Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT FROM 20-2Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT FROM 20-2Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY MORNING...MVFR OR LOWER IN -SN CHANGING
TO A WINTRY MIX S TERMINALS AND -SN N TERMINALS. SE WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NW WINDS G15-25KT
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN -SN
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RAIN LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR LATE WEDNESDAY. LLWS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AROUND 5 FT TODAY ON THE OCEAN WITH SCA REMAINING IN PLACE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND SAT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE W. BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. SEAS
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SNOW EVENT LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/FIG
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC/JMC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JMC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG









000
FXUS61 KOKX 271746
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1246 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. A QUICK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HAVE FURTHER
REDUCED CLOUD COVER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH THIS UPDATE...SO
EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. NUDGED
HIGH TEMP FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST SPOTS BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS AND EXPECTATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS MOSTLY
25-30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN A CLEAR SKY. WINDS BECOME
LIGHTER THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND FOR SOME SUBURBAN AREAS...CALM AT
TIMES. THIS ALONG WITH A DECENT SNOW PACK WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
DROP TO AROUND ZERO FOR SOME NORTHERN SUBURBS...WITH SINGLE
DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE SUBURBS. THE CITY AND IMMEDIATE
SURROUNDING AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 10-15. BECAUSE WINDS
WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE IN THE CITY...WIND CHILLS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE ZERO THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO NO SPS PLANNED FOR THE
CITY.

FOR SATURDAY...SUNNY AND COLD WITH TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 1045 BY
00Z SUN...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST W OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING
CALM ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COASTS AND CITY BY DARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE
SYSTEM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S
WITH NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING A FEW DEGREES IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER ON MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WARMER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS
SYSTEM. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN RISE TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN OVER THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

N-NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 155-20KT POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 320-020 TRUE
(330-030 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
FROM 20-2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 310-010 TRUE
(320-020 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
FROM 20-2Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 330-020 TRUE
(340-030 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
FROM 20-2Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT FROM 20-2Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT FROM 20-2Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT FROM 20-2Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY MORNING...MVFR OR LOWER IN -SN CHANGING
TO A WINTRY MIX S TERMINALS AND -SN N TERMINALS. SE WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NW WINDS G15-25KT
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN -SN
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RAIN LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. BECOMING VFR LATE WEDNESDAY. LLWS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AROUND 5 FT TODAY ON THE OCEAN WITH SCA REMAINING IN PLACE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND SAT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE W. BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. SEAS
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SNOW EVENT LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/FIG
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC/JMC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JMC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG









000
FXUS61 KBUF 271734
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1234 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TOT HE NORTHEASTERN STATES
ON SATURDAY. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. OTHERWISE SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY
THIS AFETRNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL REDIRECT ANY
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE TO THE
EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP IT TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ALONG THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS INLAND AND NEAR
MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE BITTER COLD OF RECENT WEEKS WILL RELAX DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL RESULT IN OUR REGION BEING
DOMINATED BY PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME AT THE
EXPENSE OF RECEIVING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THOUGH...AS WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE JET TYPICALLY COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL STREAK
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD DOME OF
AIR OVER OUR REGION BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BE FOUND
AHEAD OF A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE DEEPENING LIFT SUPPLIED BY A 140KT H25 JET AND WARM
ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS
FIRST DAY OF MARCH WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH IN MOST AREAS
TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF RAISING POPS...GOING WITH NEAR 90 IN THE WEST AND 80
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 20 POINTS HIGHER
THAN THE MAINSTREAM MOS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET...A
VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE PLOWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2/3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE BOOSTED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS TO 100.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH AND EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE TO END THE MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
500MB SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A
BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST STORM IN MORE THAN A MONTH THAT COULD BRING P-TYPE ISSUES BACK
TO THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO NEAR +8C BY TUESDAY NIGHT SO WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
SOME SNOW TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A
WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLE EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REMAIN BUT BOTH SHOW A DEEPENING LOW CUTTING
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. COLD
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
SNOWFALL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS
AND VSBYS. OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...BECOMING WINDY. MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 271734
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1234 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TOT HE NORTHEASTERN STATES
ON SATURDAY. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. OTHERWISE SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY
THIS AFETRNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL REDIRECT ANY
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE TO THE
EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP IT TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ALONG THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS INLAND AND NEAR
MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE BITTER COLD OF RECENT WEEKS WILL RELAX DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL RESULT IN OUR REGION BEING
DOMINATED BY PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME AT THE
EXPENSE OF RECEIVING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THOUGH...AS WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE JET TYPICALLY COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL STREAK
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD DOME OF
AIR OVER OUR REGION BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BE FOUND
AHEAD OF A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE DEEPENING LIFT SUPPLIED BY A 140KT H25 JET AND WARM
ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS
FIRST DAY OF MARCH WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH IN MOST AREAS
TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF RAISING POPS...GOING WITH NEAR 90 IN THE WEST AND 80
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 20 POINTS HIGHER
THAN THE MAINSTREAM MOS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET...A
VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE PLOWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2/3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE BOOSTED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS TO 100.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH AND EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE TO END THE MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
500MB SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A
BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST STORM IN MORE THAN A MONTH THAT COULD BRING P-TYPE ISSUES BACK
TO THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO NEAR +8C BY TUESDAY NIGHT SO WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
SOME SNOW TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A
WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLE EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REMAIN BUT BOTH SHOW A DEEPENING LOW CUTTING
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. COLD
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
SNOWFALL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS
AND VSBYS. OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...BECOMING WINDY. MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN
CLIMATE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 271734
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1234 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TOT HE NORTHEASTERN STATES
ON SATURDAY. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. OTHERWISE SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY
THIS AFETRNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL REDIRECT ANY
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE TO THE
EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP IT TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ALONG THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS INLAND AND NEAR
MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE BITTER COLD OF RECENT WEEKS WILL RELAX DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL RESULT IN OUR REGION BEING
DOMINATED BY PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME AT THE
EXPENSE OF RECEIVING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THOUGH...AS WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE JET TYPICALLY COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL STREAK
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD DOME OF
AIR OVER OUR REGION BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BE FOUND
AHEAD OF A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE DEEPENING LIFT SUPPLIED BY A 140KT H25 JET AND WARM
ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS
FIRST DAY OF MARCH WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH IN MOST AREAS
TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF RAISING POPS...GOING WITH NEAR 90 IN THE WEST AND 80
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 20 POINTS HIGHER
THAN THE MAINSTREAM MOS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET...A
VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE PLOWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2/3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE BOOSTED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS TO 100.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH AND EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE TO END THE MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
500MB SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A
BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST STORM IN MORE THAN A MONTH THAT COULD BRING P-TYPE ISSUES BACK
TO THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO NEAR +8C BY TUESDAY NIGHT SO WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
SOME SNOW TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A
WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLE EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REMAIN BUT BOTH SHOW A DEEPENING LOW CUTTING
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. COLD
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
SNOWFALL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS
AND VSBYS. OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...BECOMING WINDY. MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 271729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1229 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH QUIET AND COLD WEATHER.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL BE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1227 PM EST FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE PROVIDING SUNNY BUT COLD
CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING LOWS INCLUDED -8F
AT BTV AND -19F AT MSS. TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING QUICKLY WITH
FULL SUN BUT WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE 15-20F RANGE...WHICH
REMAINS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE FEBRUARY. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT WITH AFTERNOON MIXING WILL
BECOME W-NW AT 5-10 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET. POPS NIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EST FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLANS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND SNOW WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST. SNOWFALL WILL
BE LIGHT WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EST FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND IT WILL BE
FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY HOWEVER...AFFECTING MAINLY THE WESTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE JUST A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

DRY AND A BIT COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS THEN
QUICKLY RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR TO STREAM INTO
FORECAST AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
AROUND +4C ON WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT TO
TRANSITION TO A MIX IN MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND .75 INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE
PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LOW DEPARTS TOP THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS REGION
AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TODAY
WITH SKIES TRENDING TO SKC BY 00Z SATURDAY. WINDS WEST TO
NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1229 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH QUIET AND COLD WEATHER.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL BE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1227 PM EST FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE PROVIDING SUNNY BUT COLD
CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING LOWS INCLUDED -8F
AT BTV AND -19F AT MSS. TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING QUICKLY WITH
FULL SUN BUT WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE 15-20F RANGE...WHICH
REMAINS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE FEBRUARY. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT WITH AFTERNOON MIXING WILL
BECOME W-NW AT 5-10 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET. POPS NIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EST FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLANS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND SNOW WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST. SNOWFALL WILL
BE LIGHT WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EST FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND IT WILL BE
FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY HOWEVER...AFFECTING MAINLY THE WESTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE JUST A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

DRY AND A BIT COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS THEN
QUICKLY RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR TO STREAM INTO
FORECAST AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
AROUND +4C ON WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT TO
TRANSITION TO A MIX IN MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND .75 INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE
PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LOW DEPARTS TOP THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS REGION
AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TODAY
WITH SKIES TRENDING TO SKC BY 00Z SATURDAY. WINDS WEST TO
NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1229 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH QUIET AND COLD WEATHER.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL BE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1227 PM EST FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE PROVIDING SUNNY BUT COLD
CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING LOWS INCLUDED -8F
AT BTV AND -19F AT MSS. TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING QUICKLY WITH
FULL SUN BUT WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE 15-20F RANGE...WHICH
REMAINS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE FEBRUARY. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT WITH AFTERNOON MIXING WILL
BECOME W-NW AT 5-10 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET. POPS NIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EST FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLANS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND SNOW WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST. SNOWFALL WILL
BE LIGHT WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EST FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND IT WILL BE
FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY HOWEVER...AFFECTING MAINLY THE WESTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE JUST A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

DRY AND A BIT COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS THEN
QUICKLY RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR TO STREAM INTO
FORECAST AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
AROUND +4C ON WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT TO
TRANSITION TO A MIX IN MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND .75 INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE
PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LOW DEPARTS TOP THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS REGION
AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TODAY
WITH SKIES TRENDING TO SKC BY 00Z SATURDAY. WINDS WEST TO
NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1229 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH QUIET AND COLD WEATHER.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL BE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1227 PM EST FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE PROVIDING SUNNY BUT COLD
CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING LOWS INCLUDED -8F
AT BTV AND -19F AT MSS. TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING QUICKLY WITH
FULL SUN BUT WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE 15-20F RANGE...WHICH
REMAINS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE FEBRUARY. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT WITH AFTERNOON MIXING WILL
BECOME W-NW AT 5-10 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET. POPS NIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EST FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLANS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND SNOW WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST. SNOWFALL WILL
BE LIGHT WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EST FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND IT WILL BE
FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY HOWEVER...AFFECTING MAINLY THE WESTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE JUST A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

DRY AND A BIT COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS THEN
QUICKLY RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR TO STREAM INTO
FORECAST AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
AROUND +4C ON WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT TO
TRANSITION TO A MIX IN MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND .75 INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE
PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LOW DEPARTS TOP THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS REGION
AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TODAY
WITH SKIES TRENDING TO SKC BY 00Z SATURDAY. WINDS WEST TO
NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KALY 271716
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1216 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

EXPECT SKIES THIS AFTERNOON TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
BASED ON THE SATELLITE PICTURE. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING THE SKIES TO CLEAR. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN BELOW NORMAL AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF -15 TO -19 DEGREES C PERSIST.
THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AT THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MID LEVEL DECK WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WITH LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING/DISSIPATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR AT KALB AND POSSIBLY KPSF
THIS MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEN DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 271716
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1216 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

EXPECT SKIES THIS AFTERNOON TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
BASED ON THE SATELLITE PICTURE. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING THE SKIES TO CLEAR. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN BELOW NORMAL AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF -15 TO -19 DEGREES C PERSIST.
THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AT THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MID LEVEL DECK WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WITH LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING/DISSIPATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR AT KALB AND POSSIBLY KPSF
THIS MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEN DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 271716
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1216 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

EXPECT SKIES THIS AFTERNOON TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
BASED ON THE SATELLITE PICTURE. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING THE SKIES TO CLEAR. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN BELOW NORMAL AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF -15 TO -19 DEGREES C PERSIST.
THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AT THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MID LEVEL DECK WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WITH LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING/DISSIPATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR AT KALB AND POSSIBLY KPSF
THIS MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEN DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 271716
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1216 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

EXPECT SKIES THIS AFTERNOON TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
BASED ON THE SATELLITE PICTURE. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING THE SKIES TO CLEAR. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN BELOW NORMAL AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF -15 TO -19 DEGREES C PERSIST.
THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AT THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MID LEVEL DECK WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WITH LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING/DISSIPATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR AT KALB AND POSSIBLY KPSF
THIS MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEN DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KBGM 271601
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1101 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS, AND LOWS NEAR OR BELOW
ZERO AGAIN. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATED AT 11 AM... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY JUST
SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE AREA LATE THJIS MORNING. A SNOW
BAND OVER LAKE ONTARIO CAN BE SEEN WHICH MAY BE IMPACTING THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE WELL NORTHWEST OF SYRACUSE. THIS BAND MAY
BRING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO OSWEGO COUNTY LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT NO EFFECT IN OUR AREA. BASICALLY JUST A
PARTLY SUNNY UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY UNFOLDING WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS TO NEAR 20. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

400 AM UPDATE...
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.
BEYOND DAYBREAK DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL PUT AN END TO MOST OF
THIS. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A LIGHT DUSTING.

COLD AIR WILL AGAIN BE THE BIG STORY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE TEENS. TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY, IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO DROP BELOW ZERO.
WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR CALM) WIND CHILLS FOR THE
MOST PART WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AND IT WILL JUST BE PLAIN OLD COLD
AIR ITSELF. I DID LEAVE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES IN THE HWO BECAUSE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE CATSKILLS
BACK THROUGH CORTLAND COUNTY HAVE ENOUGH OF A BREEZE (4 TO 5 MPH)
TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AT THE LOW END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE (-15
TO -17). AFTER WHAT WE HAVE BEEN THROUGH, NOT NEARLY AS BAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND TO OUR WEST BY
12Z MONDAY WILL PRODUCE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS TYPE OF TRACK/INTENSITY DOESN`T SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. FOR A FIRST SNOW ESTIMATE WENT UNDER WPC GUIDANCE
WITH A 2 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL AREAWIDE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE ONSET
TIME WITH THE GFS HOLDING OFF PRECIP UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDAY EVENING,
WITH THE EURO FASTER AND THE CANADIAN A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH AN
AFTERNOON ONSET. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD AS PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE...A TRANSITION THAT WILL NOT OCCUR QUIETLY.

SUNDAY BEGINS QUIET WITH SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...BRISK
ZONAL FLOW WILL SEND ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLUMN WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.
IT LOOKS QUITE CERTAIN NOW THAT IT WILL BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW...YET IT ALSO SHOULD HIT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LIMIT AMOUNTS. AT
THIS POINT WE ARE EXPECTING A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES
ACCUMULATION...ADVISORY AMOUNTS AT WORST. BY DAWN MONDAY...WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND PROBABLY JUST A FEW FLURRIES LEFT BY
THEN /MAINLY CENTRAL NY/.

LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING QUICKLY
OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...INCLUDING DEVELOPMENT OF
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION VIA STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. BROAD SHIELD OF WARM FRONTAL MOISTURE APPEARS LIKELY TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY INTO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE
OF COLD AIR LINGERING LONGER NEAR THE SURFACE...YET QUICKLY
WARMING ALOFT...THIS COULD EASILY LEAD TO MIX OF
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY SOME SNOW TUESDAY THEN WINTRY MIX
INCLUDING POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST HOW WARM THE SURFACE WILL
MANAGE TO GET CONSIDERING THE REGIONAL SNOW PACK...BUT AT THIS TIME
WE ARE FIGURING ON MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY. COLD
FRONT THEN TO COME THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO SOME COLDER AIR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINGERING LGT SNOW AT ITH WILL END SHRTLY AFT SUNRISE BRINGING ALL
STATIONS TO VFR CONDS THIS MRNG. VFR CONDS WILL HOLD THRU THE TAF
PD AS HIPRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. LGT WLY WINDS AHD OF THE HIPRES
TODAY WILL BECOME MSTLY VRBL TNGT.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN OR MIX AS SYSTEM MOVES
IN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM






000
FXUS61 KBGM 271601
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1101 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS, AND LOWS NEAR OR BELOW
ZERO AGAIN. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATED AT 11 AM... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY JUST
SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE AREA LATE THJIS MORNING. A SNOW
BAND OVER LAKE ONTARIO CAN BE SEEN WHICH MAY BE IMPACTING THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE WELL NORTHWEST OF SYRACUSE. THIS BAND MAY
BRING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO OSWEGO COUNTY LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT NO EFFECT IN OUR AREA. BASICALLY JUST A
PARTLY SUNNY UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY UNFOLDING WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS TO NEAR 20. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

400 AM UPDATE...
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.
BEYOND DAYBREAK DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL PUT AN END TO MOST OF
THIS. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A LIGHT DUSTING.

COLD AIR WILL AGAIN BE THE BIG STORY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE TEENS. TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY, IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO DROP BELOW ZERO.
WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR CALM) WIND CHILLS FOR THE
MOST PART WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AND IT WILL JUST BE PLAIN OLD COLD
AIR ITSELF. I DID LEAVE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES IN THE HWO BECAUSE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE CATSKILLS
BACK THROUGH CORTLAND COUNTY HAVE ENOUGH OF A BREEZE (4 TO 5 MPH)
TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AT THE LOW END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE (-15
TO -17). AFTER WHAT WE HAVE BEEN THROUGH, NOT NEARLY AS BAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND TO OUR WEST BY
12Z MONDAY WILL PRODUCE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS TYPE OF TRACK/INTENSITY DOESN`T SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. FOR A FIRST SNOW ESTIMATE WENT UNDER WPC GUIDANCE
WITH A 2 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL AREAWIDE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE ONSET
TIME WITH THE GFS HOLDING OFF PRECIP UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDAY EVENING,
WITH THE EURO FASTER AND THE CANADIAN A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH AN
AFTERNOON ONSET. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD AS PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE...A TRANSITION THAT WILL NOT OCCUR QUIETLY.

SUNDAY BEGINS QUIET WITH SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...BRISK
ZONAL FLOW WILL SEND ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLUMN WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.
IT LOOKS QUITE CERTAIN NOW THAT IT WILL BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW...YET IT ALSO SHOULD HIT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LIMIT AMOUNTS. AT
THIS POINT WE ARE EXPECTING A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES
ACCUMULATION...ADVISORY AMOUNTS AT WORST. BY DAWN MONDAY...WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND PROBABLY JUST A FEW FLURRIES LEFT BY
THEN /MAINLY CENTRAL NY/.

LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING QUICKLY
OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...INCLUDING DEVELOPMENT OF
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION VIA STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. BROAD SHIELD OF WARM FRONTAL MOISTURE APPEARS LIKELY TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY INTO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE
OF COLD AIR LINGERING LONGER NEAR THE SURFACE...YET QUICKLY
WARMING ALOFT...THIS COULD EASILY LEAD TO MIX OF
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY SOME SNOW TUESDAY THEN WINTRY MIX
INCLUDING POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST HOW WARM THE SURFACE WILL
MANAGE TO GET CONSIDERING THE REGIONAL SNOW PACK...BUT AT THIS TIME
WE ARE FIGURING ON MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY. COLD
FRONT THEN TO COME THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO SOME COLDER AIR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINGERING LGT SNOW AT ITH WILL END SHRTLY AFT SUNRISE BRINGING ALL
STATIONS TO VFR CONDS THIS MRNG. VFR CONDS WILL HOLD THRU THE TAF
PD AS HIPRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. LGT WLY WINDS AHD OF THE HIPRES
TODAY WILL BECOME MSTLY VRBL TNGT.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN OR MIX AS SYSTEM MOVES
IN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 271601
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1101 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS, AND LOWS NEAR OR BELOW
ZERO AGAIN. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATED AT 11 AM... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY JUST
SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE AREA LATE THJIS MORNING. A SNOW
BAND OVER LAKE ONTARIO CAN BE SEEN WHICH MAY BE IMPACTING THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE WELL NORTHWEST OF SYRACUSE. THIS BAND MAY
BRING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO OSWEGO COUNTY LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT NO EFFECT IN OUR AREA. BASICALLY JUST A
PARTLY SUNNY UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY UNFOLDING WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS TO NEAR 20. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

400 AM UPDATE...
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.
BEYOND DAYBREAK DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL PUT AN END TO MOST OF
THIS. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A LIGHT DUSTING.

COLD AIR WILL AGAIN BE THE BIG STORY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE TEENS. TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY, IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO DROP BELOW ZERO.
WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR CALM) WIND CHILLS FOR THE
MOST PART WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AND IT WILL JUST BE PLAIN OLD COLD
AIR ITSELF. I DID LEAVE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES IN THE HWO BECAUSE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE CATSKILLS
BACK THROUGH CORTLAND COUNTY HAVE ENOUGH OF A BREEZE (4 TO 5 MPH)
TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AT THE LOW END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE (-15
TO -17). AFTER WHAT WE HAVE BEEN THROUGH, NOT NEARLY AS BAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND TO OUR WEST BY
12Z MONDAY WILL PRODUCE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS TYPE OF TRACK/INTENSITY DOESN`T SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. FOR A FIRST SNOW ESTIMATE WENT UNDER WPC GUIDANCE
WITH A 2 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL AREAWIDE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE ONSET
TIME WITH THE GFS HOLDING OFF PRECIP UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDAY EVENING,
WITH THE EURO FASTER AND THE CANADIAN A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH AN
AFTERNOON ONSET. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD AS PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE...A TRANSITION THAT WILL NOT OCCUR QUIETLY.

SUNDAY BEGINS QUIET WITH SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...BRISK
ZONAL FLOW WILL SEND ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLUMN WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.
IT LOOKS QUITE CERTAIN NOW THAT IT WILL BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW...YET IT ALSO SHOULD HIT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LIMIT AMOUNTS. AT
THIS POINT WE ARE EXPECTING A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES
ACCUMULATION...ADVISORY AMOUNTS AT WORST. BY DAWN MONDAY...WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND PROBABLY JUST A FEW FLURRIES LEFT BY
THEN /MAINLY CENTRAL NY/.

LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING QUICKLY
OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...INCLUDING DEVELOPMENT OF
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION VIA STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. BROAD SHIELD OF WARM FRONTAL MOISTURE APPEARS LIKELY TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY INTO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE
OF COLD AIR LINGERING LONGER NEAR THE SURFACE...YET QUICKLY
WARMING ALOFT...THIS COULD EASILY LEAD TO MIX OF
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY SOME SNOW TUESDAY THEN WINTRY MIX
INCLUDING POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST HOW WARM THE SURFACE WILL
MANAGE TO GET CONSIDERING THE REGIONAL SNOW PACK...BUT AT THIS TIME
WE ARE FIGURING ON MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY. COLD
FRONT THEN TO COME THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO SOME COLDER AIR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINGERING LGT SNOW AT ITH WILL END SHRTLY AFT SUNRISE BRINGING ALL
STATIONS TO VFR CONDS THIS MRNG. VFR CONDS WILL HOLD THRU THE TAF
PD AS HIPRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. LGT WLY WINDS AHD OF THE HIPRES
TODAY WILL BECOME MSTLY VRBL TNGT.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN OR MIX AS SYSTEM MOVES
IN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 271601
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1101 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS, AND LOWS NEAR OR BELOW
ZERO AGAIN. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATED AT 11 AM... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY JUST
SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE AREA LATE THJIS MORNING. A SNOW
BAND OVER LAKE ONTARIO CAN BE SEEN WHICH MAY BE IMPACTING THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE WELL NORTHWEST OF SYRACUSE. THIS BAND MAY
BRING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO OSWEGO COUNTY LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT NO EFFECT IN OUR AREA. BASICALLY JUST A
PARTLY SUNNY UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY UNFOLDING WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS TO NEAR 20. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

400 AM UPDATE...
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.
BEYOND DAYBREAK DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL PUT AN END TO MOST OF
THIS. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A LIGHT DUSTING.

COLD AIR WILL AGAIN BE THE BIG STORY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE TEENS. TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY, IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO DROP BELOW ZERO.
WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR CALM) WIND CHILLS FOR THE
MOST PART WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AND IT WILL JUST BE PLAIN OLD COLD
AIR ITSELF. I DID LEAVE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES IN THE HWO BECAUSE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE CATSKILLS
BACK THROUGH CORTLAND COUNTY HAVE ENOUGH OF A BREEZE (4 TO 5 MPH)
TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AT THE LOW END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE (-15
TO -17). AFTER WHAT WE HAVE BEEN THROUGH, NOT NEARLY AS BAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND TO OUR WEST BY
12Z MONDAY WILL PRODUCE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS TYPE OF TRACK/INTENSITY DOESN`T SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. FOR A FIRST SNOW ESTIMATE WENT UNDER WPC GUIDANCE
WITH A 2 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL AREAWIDE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE ONSET
TIME WITH THE GFS HOLDING OFF PRECIP UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDAY EVENING,
WITH THE EURO FASTER AND THE CANADIAN A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH AN
AFTERNOON ONSET. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD AS PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE...A TRANSITION THAT WILL NOT OCCUR QUIETLY.

SUNDAY BEGINS QUIET WITH SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...BRISK
ZONAL FLOW WILL SEND ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLUMN WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.
IT LOOKS QUITE CERTAIN NOW THAT IT WILL BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW...YET IT ALSO SHOULD HIT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LIMIT AMOUNTS. AT
THIS POINT WE ARE EXPECTING A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES
ACCUMULATION...ADVISORY AMOUNTS AT WORST. BY DAWN MONDAY...WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND PROBABLY JUST A FEW FLURRIES LEFT BY
THEN /MAINLY CENTRAL NY/.

LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING QUICKLY
OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...INCLUDING DEVELOPMENT OF
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION VIA STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. BROAD SHIELD OF WARM FRONTAL MOISTURE APPEARS LIKELY TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY INTO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE
OF COLD AIR LINGERING LONGER NEAR THE SURFACE...YET QUICKLY
WARMING ALOFT...THIS COULD EASILY LEAD TO MIX OF
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY SOME SNOW TUESDAY THEN WINTRY MIX
INCLUDING POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST HOW WARM THE SURFACE WILL
MANAGE TO GET CONSIDERING THE REGIONAL SNOW PACK...BUT AT THIS TIME
WE ARE FIGURING ON MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY. COLD
FRONT THEN TO COME THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO SOME COLDER AIR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINGERING LGT SNOW AT ITH WILL END SHRTLY AFT SUNRISE BRINGING ALL
STATIONS TO VFR CONDS THIS MRNG. VFR CONDS WILL HOLD THRU THE TAF
PD AS HIPRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. LGT WLY WINDS AHD OF THE HIPRES
TODAY WILL BECOME MSTLY VRBL TNGT.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN OR MIX AS SYSTEM MOVES
IN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM






000
FXUS61 KALY 271510
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1010 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1009 AM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

THIS UPDATE HAS TRENDED THE SKY COVER TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BASED ON THE SATELLITE PICTURE. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING THE SKIES TO BE CLEAR. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF -15 TO -19
DEGREES C PERSIST. THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AT THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MID LEVEL DECK WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WITH LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING/DISSIPATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR AT KALB AND POSSIBLY KPSF
THIS MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEN DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 271510
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1010 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1009 AM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

THIS UPDATE HAS TRENDED THE SKY COVER TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BASED ON THE SATELLITE PICTURE. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING THE SKIES TO BE CLEAR. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF -15 TO -19
DEGREES C PERSIST. THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AT THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MID LEVEL DECK WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WITH LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING/DISSIPATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR AT KALB AND POSSIBLY KPSF
THIS MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEN DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 271510
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1010 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1009 AM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

THIS UPDATE HAS TRENDED THE SKY COVER TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BASED ON THE SATELLITE PICTURE. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING THE SKIES TO BE CLEAR. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF -15 TO -19
DEGREES C PERSIST. THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AT THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MID LEVEL DECK WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WITH LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING/DISSIPATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR AT KALB AND POSSIBLY KPSF
THIS MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEN DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 271510
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1010 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1009 AM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

THIS UPDATE HAS TRENDED THE SKY COVER TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BASED ON THE SATELLITE PICTURE. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING THE SKIES TO BE CLEAR. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF -15 TO -19
DEGREES C PERSIST. THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AT THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MID LEVEL DECK WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WITH LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING/DISSIPATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR AT KALB AND POSSIBLY KPSF
THIS MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEN DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KOKX 271456
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
956 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. A QUICK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HAVE REDUCED CLOUD
COVER WITH THIS UPDATE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ALSO HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES. MODELS STILL
SHOW SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDENT
WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
SHALLOW. SO THINKING IS THAT WE CAN STILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATER TODAY...BUT SKY GRIDS MAY STILL HAVE TOO MUCH CLOUD
COVER FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMP FORECAST OF MID TO UPPER 20S STILL LOOKS GOOD BASED ON
MIXING TO 925 MB...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF
THE MORNING...AND SOMEWHAT OF A DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION TO HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SUNNY AND COLD WITH TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. THE HI IS
PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 1045 BY 00Z SUN...WITH THE CENTER
OF THE HI JUST W OF THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING CALM ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTS AND CITY BY DARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S
     WITH NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING A FEW DEGREES IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER ON MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE WARMER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN RISE TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

N-NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 155-20KT POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 330-020 TRUE
(340-030 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20
KT THROUGH 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 310-030 TRUE
(320-040 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20
KT THROUGH 2Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 330-020 TRUE
(340-030 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20
KT THROUGH 2Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THROUGH 2Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THROUGH 2Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THROUGH 2Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY MORNING...-SN PROBABLE WITH MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS. SE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NW WINDS G15-25KT
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN -SN CHANGING
TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR RAIN. LLWS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AROUND 5 FT TODAY ON THE OCEAN WITH SCA REMAINING IN PLACE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND SAT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE W. BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. SEAS
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SNOW EVENT LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/FIG
NEAR TERM...JC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MALOIT/DS
MARINE...JMC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG







000
FXUS61 KOKX 271456
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
956 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. A QUICK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HAVE REDUCED CLOUD
COVER WITH THIS UPDATE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ALSO HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES. MODELS STILL
SHOW SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDENT
WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
SHALLOW. SO THINKING IS THAT WE CAN STILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATER TODAY...BUT SKY GRIDS MAY STILL HAVE TOO MUCH CLOUD
COVER FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMP FORECAST OF MID TO UPPER 20S STILL LOOKS GOOD BASED ON
MIXING TO 925 MB...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF
THE MORNING...AND SOMEWHAT OF A DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION TO HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SUNNY AND COLD WITH TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. THE HI IS
PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 1045 BY 00Z SUN...WITH THE CENTER
OF THE HI JUST W OF THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING CALM ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTS AND CITY BY DARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S
     WITH NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING A FEW DEGREES IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER ON MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE WARMER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN RISE TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

N-NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 155-20KT POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 330-020 TRUE
(340-030 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20
KT THROUGH 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 310-030 TRUE
(320-040 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20
KT THROUGH 2Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 330-020 TRUE
(340-030 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20
KT THROUGH 2Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THROUGH 2Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THROUGH 2Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THROUGH 2Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY MORNING...-SN PROBABLE WITH MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS. SE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NW WINDS G15-25KT
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN -SN CHANGING
TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR RAIN. LLWS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AROUND 5 FT TODAY ON THE OCEAN WITH SCA REMAINING IN PLACE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND SAT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE W. BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. SEAS
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SNOW EVENT LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/FIG
NEAR TERM...JC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MALOIT/DS
MARINE...JMC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG







000
FXUS61 KOKX 271456
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
956 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. A QUICK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HAVE REDUCED CLOUD
COVER WITH THIS UPDATE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ALSO HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES. MODELS STILL
SHOW SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDENT
WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
SHALLOW. SO THINKING IS THAT WE CAN STILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATER TODAY...BUT SKY GRIDS MAY STILL HAVE TOO MUCH CLOUD
COVER FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMP FORECAST OF MID TO UPPER 20S STILL LOOKS GOOD BASED ON
MIXING TO 925 MB...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF
THE MORNING...AND SOMEWHAT OF A DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION TO HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SUNNY AND COLD WITH TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. THE HI IS
PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 1045 BY 00Z SUN...WITH THE CENTER
OF THE HI JUST W OF THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING CALM ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTS AND CITY BY DARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S
     WITH NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING A FEW DEGREES IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER ON MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE WARMER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN RISE TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

N-NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 155-20KT POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 330-020 TRUE
(340-030 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20
KT THROUGH 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 310-030 TRUE
(320-040 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20
KT THROUGH 2Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 330-020 TRUE
(340-030 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20
KT THROUGH 2Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THROUGH 2Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THROUGH 2Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THROUGH 2Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY MORNING...-SN PROBABLE WITH MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS. SE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NW WINDS G15-25KT
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN -SN CHANGING
TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR RAIN. LLWS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AROUND 5 FT TODAY ON THE OCEAN WITH SCA REMAINING IN PLACE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND SAT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE W. BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. SEAS
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SNOW EVENT LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/FIG
NEAR TERM...JC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MALOIT/DS
MARINE...JMC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG







000
FXUS61 KOKX 271456
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
956 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. A QUICK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HAVE REDUCED CLOUD
COVER WITH THIS UPDATE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ALSO HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES. MODELS STILL
SHOW SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDENT
WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
SHALLOW. SO THINKING IS THAT WE CAN STILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATER TODAY...BUT SKY GRIDS MAY STILL HAVE TOO MUCH CLOUD
COVER FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMP FORECAST OF MID TO UPPER 20S STILL LOOKS GOOD BASED ON
MIXING TO 925 MB...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF
THE MORNING...AND SOMEWHAT OF A DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION TO HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SUNNY AND COLD WITH TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. THE HI IS
PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 1045 BY 00Z SUN...WITH THE CENTER
OF THE HI JUST W OF THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING CALM ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTS AND CITY BY DARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S
     WITH NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING A FEW DEGREES IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER ON MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE WARMER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN RISE TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

N-NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 155-20KT POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 330-020 TRUE
(340-030 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20
KT THROUGH 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 310-030 TRUE
(320-040 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20
KT THROUGH 2Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 330-020 TRUE
(340-030 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20
KT THROUGH 2Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THROUGH 2Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THROUGH 2Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THROUGH 2Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY MORNING...-SN PROBABLE WITH MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS. SE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NW WINDS G15-25KT
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN -SN CHANGING
TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR RAIN. LLWS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AROUND 5 FT TODAY ON THE OCEAN WITH SCA REMAINING IN PLACE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND SAT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE W. BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. SEAS
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SNOW EVENT LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/FIG
NEAR TERM...JC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MALOIT/DS
MARINE...JMC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG







000
FXUS61 KOKX 271456
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
956 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. A QUICK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HAVE REDUCED CLOUD
COVER WITH THIS UPDATE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ALSO HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES. MODELS STILL
SHOW SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDENT
WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
SHALLOW. SO THINKING IS THAT WE CAN STILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATER TODAY...BUT SKY GRIDS MAY STILL HAVE TOO MUCH CLOUD
COVER FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMP FORECAST OF MID TO UPPER 20S STILL LOOKS GOOD BASED ON
MIXING TO 925 MB...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF
THE MORNING...AND SOMEWHAT OF A DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION TO HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SUNNY AND COLD WITH TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. THE HI IS
PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 1045 BY 00Z SUN...WITH THE CENTER
OF THE HI JUST W OF THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING CALM ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTS AND CITY BY DARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S
     WITH NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING A FEW DEGREES IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER ON MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE WARMER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN RISE TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

N-NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 155-20KT POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 330-020 TRUE
(340-030 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20
KT THROUGH 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 310-030 TRUE
(320-040 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20
KT THROUGH 2Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 330-020 TRUE
(340-030 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20
KT THROUGH 2Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THROUGH 2Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THROUGH 2Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THROUGH 2Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY MORNING...-SN PROBABLE WITH MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS. SE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NW WINDS G15-25KT
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN -SN CHANGING
TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR RAIN. LLWS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AROUND 5 FT TODAY ON THE OCEAN WITH SCA REMAINING IN PLACE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND SAT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE W. BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. SEAS
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SNOW EVENT LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/FIG
NEAR TERM...JC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MALOIT/DS
MARINE...JMC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG







000
FXUS61 KOKX 271456
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
956 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. A QUICK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HAVE REDUCED CLOUD
COVER WITH THIS UPDATE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ALSO HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES. MODELS STILL
SHOW SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDENT
WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
SHALLOW. SO THINKING IS THAT WE CAN STILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATER TODAY...BUT SKY GRIDS MAY STILL HAVE TOO MUCH CLOUD
COVER FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMP FORECAST OF MID TO UPPER 20S STILL LOOKS GOOD BASED ON
MIXING TO 925 MB...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF
THE MORNING...AND SOMEWHAT OF A DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION TO HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SUNNY AND COLD WITH TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. THE HI IS
PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 1045 BY 00Z SUN...WITH THE CENTER
OF THE HI JUST W OF THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING CALM ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTS AND CITY BY DARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S
     WITH NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING A FEW DEGREES IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER ON MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE WARMER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN RISE TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

N-NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 155-20KT POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 330-020 TRUE
(340-030 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20
KT THROUGH 2Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 310-030 TRUE
(320-040 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20
KT THROUGH 2Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 330-020 TRUE
(340-030 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20
KT THROUGH 2Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THROUGH 2Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THROUGH 2Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THROUGH 2Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY MORNING...-SN PROBABLE WITH MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS. SE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NW WINDS G15-25KT
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN -SN CHANGING
TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR RAIN. LLWS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AROUND 5 FT TODAY ON THE OCEAN WITH SCA REMAINING IN PLACE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND SAT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE W. BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. SEAS
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SNOW EVENT LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/FIG
NEAR TERM...JC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MALOIT/DS
MARINE...JMC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG






000
FXUS61 KBTV 271435
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
935 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH QUIET AND COLD WEATHER.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL BE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 919 AM EST FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE PROVIDING
SUNNY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS
INCLUDED -8F AT BTV AND -19F AT MSS. TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING
QUICKLY WITH FULL SUN BUT WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE 14-19F
RANGE...WHICH REMAINS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE
FEBRUARY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT WITH AFTERNOON
MIXING WILL BECOME W-NW AT 5-10 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. POPS NIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EST FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLANS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND SNOW WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST. SNOWFALL WILL
BE LIGHT WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EST FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND IT WILL BE
FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY HOWEVER...AFFECTING MAINLY THE WESTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE JUST A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

DRY AND A BIT COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS THEN
QUICKLY RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR TO STREAM INTO
FORECAST AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
AROUND +4C ON WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT TO
TRANSITION TO A MIX IN MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND .75 INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE
PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LOW DEPARTS TOP THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS REGION
AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TODAY
WITH SKIES TRENDING TO SKC BY 00Z SATURDAY. WINDS WEST TO
NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271435
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
935 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH QUIET AND COLD WEATHER.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL BE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 919 AM EST FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE PROVIDING
SUNNY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS
INCLUDED -8F AT BTV AND -19F AT MSS. TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING
QUICKLY WITH FULL SUN BUT WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE 14-19F
RANGE...WHICH REMAINS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE
FEBRUARY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT WITH AFTERNOON
MIXING WILL BECOME W-NW AT 5-10 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. POPS NIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EST FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLANS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND SNOW WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST. SNOWFALL WILL
BE LIGHT WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EST FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND IT WILL BE
FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY HOWEVER...AFFECTING MAINLY THE WESTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE JUST A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

DRY AND A BIT COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS THEN
QUICKLY RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR TO STREAM INTO
FORECAST AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
AROUND +4C ON WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT TO
TRANSITION TO A MIX IN MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND .75 INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE
PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LOW DEPARTS TOP THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS REGION
AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TODAY
WITH SKIES TRENDING TO SKC BY 00Z SATURDAY. WINDS WEST TO
NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 271435
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
935 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH QUIET AND COLD WEATHER.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL BE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 919 AM EST FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE PROVIDING
SUNNY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS
INCLUDED -8F AT BTV AND -19F AT MSS. TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING
QUICKLY WITH FULL SUN BUT WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE 14-19F
RANGE...WHICH REMAINS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE
FEBRUARY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT WITH AFTERNOON
MIXING WILL BECOME W-NW AT 5-10 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. POPS NIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EST FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLANS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND SNOW WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST. SNOWFALL WILL
BE LIGHT WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EST FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND IT WILL BE
FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY HOWEVER...AFFECTING MAINLY THE WESTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE JUST A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

DRY AND A BIT COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS THEN
QUICKLY RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR TO STREAM INTO
FORECAST AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
AROUND +4C ON WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT TO
TRANSITION TO A MIX IN MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND .75 INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE
PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LOW DEPARTS TOP THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS REGION
AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TODAY
WITH SKIES TRENDING TO SKC BY 00Z SATURDAY. WINDS WEST TO
NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



000
FXUS61 KBUF 271359
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
859 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE TODAY...WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD SEE
UNEVENTFUL BUT CONTINUED COLD WEATHER TODAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS WILL REDIRECT ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE. SUBSIDENCE
WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP
IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID SINGLE NUMBERS TO THE MID
TEENS...DESPITE THE SUNSHINE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ALONG THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS INLAND AND NEAR
MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE BITTER COLD OF RECENT WEEKS WILL RELAX DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL RESULT IN OUR REGION BEING
DOMINATED BY PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME AT THE
EXPENSE OF RECEIVING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THOUGH...AS WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE JET TYPICALLY COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

SATURDAY WILL UNDOUBTEDLY PROVE TO BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
SUPPLY THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. A SOLID CAP UNDER 5K FT...A MODERATELY SHEARED
BOUNDARY LAYER AND PLENTY OF ICE ON THE EASTERN END OF LK ONTARIO
WILL ALL WORK AGAINST ANYTHING ORGANIZED AND KEEP ACCUMULATIONS
UNDER AN INCH (CENTERED ON TUG HILL). THIS WILL BE THE LAST REAL
COLD DAY IN AWHILE AS MAX TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WHILE PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL STREAK EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHED UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD DOME OF AIR OVER OUR REGION
BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF A WAVY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
DEEPENING LIFT SUPPLIED BY A 140KT H25 JET AND WARM ADVECTION IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS FIRST DAY OF MARCH
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH IN MOST AREAS TO AS MUCH AS 3
INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
RAISING POPS...GOING WITH NEAR 90 IN THE WEST AND 80 EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 20 POINTS HIGHER THAN THE
MAINSTREAM MOS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET...A
VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE PLOWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2/3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE BOOSTED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS TO 100.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH AND EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE TO END THE MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
500MB SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A
BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST STORM IN MORE THAN A MONTH THAT COULD BRING P-TYPE ISSUES BACK
TO THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO NEAR +8C BY TUESDAY NIGHT SO WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
SOME SNOW TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A
WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLE EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REMAIN BUT BOTH SHOW A DEEPENING LOW CUTTING
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. COLD
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
SNOWFALL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...LOWERING CLOUDS TO MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW
AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/WCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/WCH
CLIMATE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 271359
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
859 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE TODAY...WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD SEE
UNEVENTFUL BUT CONTINUED COLD WEATHER TODAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS WILL REDIRECT ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE. SUBSIDENCE
WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP
IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID SINGLE NUMBERS TO THE MID
TEENS...DESPITE THE SUNSHINE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ALONG THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS INLAND AND NEAR
MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE BITTER COLD OF RECENT WEEKS WILL RELAX DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL RESULT IN OUR REGION BEING
DOMINATED BY PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME AT THE
EXPENSE OF RECEIVING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THOUGH...AS WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE JET TYPICALLY COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

SATURDAY WILL UNDOUBTEDLY PROVE TO BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
SUPPLY THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. A SOLID CAP UNDER 5K FT...A MODERATELY SHEARED
BOUNDARY LAYER AND PLENTY OF ICE ON THE EASTERN END OF LK ONTARIO
WILL ALL WORK AGAINST ANYTHING ORGANIZED AND KEEP ACCUMULATIONS
UNDER AN INCH (CENTERED ON TUG HILL). THIS WILL BE THE LAST REAL
COLD DAY IN AWHILE AS MAX TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WHILE PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL STREAK EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHED UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD DOME OF AIR OVER OUR REGION
BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF A WAVY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
DEEPENING LIFT SUPPLIED BY A 140KT H25 JET AND WARM ADVECTION IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS FIRST DAY OF MARCH
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH IN MOST AREAS TO AS MUCH AS 3
INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
RAISING POPS...GOING WITH NEAR 90 IN THE WEST AND 80 EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 20 POINTS HIGHER THAN THE
MAINSTREAM MOS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET...A
VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE PLOWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2/3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE BOOSTED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS TO 100.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH AND EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE TO END THE MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
500MB SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A
BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST STORM IN MORE THAN A MONTH THAT COULD BRING P-TYPE ISSUES BACK
TO THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO NEAR +8C BY TUESDAY NIGHT SO WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
SOME SNOW TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A
WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLE EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REMAIN BUT BOTH SHOW A DEEPENING LOW CUTTING
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. COLD
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
SNOWFALL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...LOWERING CLOUDS TO MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW
AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/WCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/WCH
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 271359
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
859 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE TODAY...WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD SEE
UNEVENTFUL BUT CONTINUED COLD WEATHER TODAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS WILL REDIRECT ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE. SUBSIDENCE
WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP
IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID SINGLE NUMBERS TO THE MID
TEENS...DESPITE THE SUNSHINE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ALONG THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS INLAND AND NEAR
MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE BITTER COLD OF RECENT WEEKS WILL RELAX DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL RESULT IN OUR REGION BEING
DOMINATED BY PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME AT THE
EXPENSE OF RECEIVING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THOUGH...AS WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE JET TYPICALLY COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

SATURDAY WILL UNDOUBTEDLY PROVE TO BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
SUPPLY THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. A SOLID CAP UNDER 5K FT...A MODERATELY SHEARED
BOUNDARY LAYER AND PLENTY OF ICE ON THE EASTERN END OF LK ONTARIO
WILL ALL WORK AGAINST ANYTHING ORGANIZED AND KEEP ACCUMULATIONS
UNDER AN INCH (CENTERED ON TUG HILL). THIS WILL BE THE LAST REAL
COLD DAY IN AWHILE AS MAX TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WHILE PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL STREAK EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHED UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD DOME OF AIR OVER OUR REGION
BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF A WAVY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
DEEPENING LIFT SUPPLIED BY A 140KT H25 JET AND WARM ADVECTION IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS FIRST DAY OF MARCH
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH IN MOST AREAS TO AS MUCH AS 3
INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
RAISING POPS...GOING WITH NEAR 90 IN THE WEST AND 80 EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 20 POINTS HIGHER THAN THE
MAINSTREAM MOS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET...A
VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE PLOWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2/3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE BOOSTED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS TO 100.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH AND EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE TO END THE MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
500MB SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A
BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST STORM IN MORE THAN A MONTH THAT COULD BRING P-TYPE ISSUES BACK
TO THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO NEAR +8C BY TUESDAY NIGHT SO WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
SOME SNOW TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A
WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLE EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REMAIN BUT BOTH SHOW A DEEPENING LOW CUTTING
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. COLD
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
SNOWFALL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...LOWERING CLOUDS TO MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW
AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/WCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/WCH
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 271359
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
859 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE TODAY...WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD SEE
UNEVENTFUL BUT CONTINUED COLD WEATHER TODAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS WILL REDIRECT ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE. SUBSIDENCE
WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP
IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID SINGLE NUMBERS TO THE MID
TEENS...DESPITE THE SUNSHINE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ALONG THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS INLAND AND NEAR
MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE BITTER COLD OF RECENT WEEKS WILL RELAX DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL RESULT IN OUR REGION BEING
DOMINATED BY PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME AT THE
EXPENSE OF RECEIVING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THOUGH...AS WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE JET TYPICALLY COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

SATURDAY WILL UNDOUBTEDLY PROVE TO BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
SUPPLY THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. A SOLID CAP UNDER 5K FT...A MODERATELY SHEARED
BOUNDARY LAYER AND PLENTY OF ICE ON THE EASTERN END OF LK ONTARIO
WILL ALL WORK AGAINST ANYTHING ORGANIZED AND KEEP ACCUMULATIONS
UNDER AN INCH (CENTERED ON TUG HILL). THIS WILL BE THE LAST REAL
COLD DAY IN AWHILE AS MAX TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WHILE PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL STREAK EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHED UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD DOME OF AIR OVER OUR REGION
BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF A WAVY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
DEEPENING LIFT SUPPLIED BY A 140KT H25 JET AND WARM ADVECTION IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS FIRST DAY OF MARCH
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH IN MOST AREAS TO AS MUCH AS 3
INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
RAISING POPS...GOING WITH NEAR 90 IN THE WEST AND 80 EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 20 POINTS HIGHER THAN THE
MAINSTREAM MOS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET...A
VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE PLOWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2/3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE BOOSTED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS TO 100.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH AND EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE TO END THE MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
500MB SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A
BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST STORM IN MORE THAN A MONTH THAT COULD BRING P-TYPE ISSUES BACK
TO THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO NEAR +8C BY TUESDAY NIGHT SO WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
SOME SNOW TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A
WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLE EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REMAIN BUT BOTH SHOW A DEEPENING LOW CUTTING
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. COLD
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
SNOWFALL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...LOWERING CLOUDS TO MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW
AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/WCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/WCH
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 271359
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
859 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE TODAY...WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD SEE
UNEVENTFUL BUT CONTINUED COLD WEATHER TODAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS WILL REDIRECT ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE. SUBSIDENCE
WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP
IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID SINGLE NUMBERS TO THE MID
TEENS...DESPITE THE SUNSHINE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ALONG THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS INLAND AND NEAR
MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE BITTER COLD OF RECENT WEEKS WILL RELAX DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL RESULT IN OUR REGION BEING
DOMINATED BY PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME AT THE
EXPENSE OF RECEIVING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THOUGH...AS WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE JET TYPICALLY COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

SATURDAY WILL UNDOUBTEDLY PROVE TO BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
SUPPLY THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. A SOLID CAP UNDER 5K FT...A MODERATELY SHEARED
BOUNDARY LAYER AND PLENTY OF ICE ON THE EASTERN END OF LK ONTARIO
WILL ALL WORK AGAINST ANYTHING ORGANIZED AND KEEP ACCUMULATIONS
UNDER AN INCH (CENTERED ON TUG HILL). THIS WILL BE THE LAST REAL
COLD DAY IN AWHILE AS MAX TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WHILE PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL STREAK EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHED UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD DOME OF AIR OVER OUR REGION
BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF A WAVY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
DEEPENING LIFT SUPPLIED BY A 140KT H25 JET AND WARM ADVECTION IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS FIRST DAY OF MARCH
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH IN MOST AREAS TO AS MUCH AS 3
INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
RAISING POPS...GOING WITH NEAR 90 IN THE WEST AND 80 EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 20 POINTS HIGHER THAN THE
MAINSTREAM MOS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET...A
VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE PLOWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2/3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE BOOSTED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS TO 100.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH AND EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE TO END THE MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
500MB SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A
BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST STORM IN MORE THAN A MONTH THAT COULD BRING P-TYPE ISSUES BACK
TO THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO NEAR +8C BY TUESDAY NIGHT SO WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
SOME SNOW TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A
WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLE EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REMAIN BUT BOTH SHOW A DEEPENING LOW CUTTING
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. COLD
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
SNOWFALL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...LOWERING CLOUDS TO MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW
AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/WCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/WCH
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 271359
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
859 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE TODAY...WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD SEE
UNEVENTFUL BUT CONTINUED COLD WEATHER TODAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS WILL REDIRECT ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE. SUBSIDENCE
WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP
IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID SINGLE NUMBERS TO THE MID
TEENS...DESPITE THE SUNSHINE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ALONG THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS INLAND AND NEAR
MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE BITTER COLD OF RECENT WEEKS WILL RELAX DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL RESULT IN OUR REGION BEING
DOMINATED BY PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME AT THE
EXPENSE OF RECEIVING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THOUGH...AS WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE JET TYPICALLY COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

SATURDAY WILL UNDOUBTEDLY PROVE TO BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
SUPPLY THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. A SOLID CAP UNDER 5K FT...A MODERATELY SHEARED
BOUNDARY LAYER AND PLENTY OF ICE ON THE EASTERN END OF LK ONTARIO
WILL ALL WORK AGAINST ANYTHING ORGANIZED AND KEEP ACCUMULATIONS
UNDER AN INCH (CENTERED ON TUG HILL). THIS WILL BE THE LAST REAL
COLD DAY IN AWHILE AS MAX TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WHILE PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL STREAK EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHED UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD DOME OF AIR OVER OUR REGION
BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF A WAVY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
DEEPENING LIFT SUPPLIED BY A 140KT H25 JET AND WARM ADVECTION IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS FIRST DAY OF MARCH
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH IN MOST AREAS TO AS MUCH AS 3
INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
RAISING POPS...GOING WITH NEAR 90 IN THE WEST AND 80 EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 20 POINTS HIGHER THAN THE
MAINSTREAM MOS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET...A
VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE PLOWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2/3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE BOOSTED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS TO 100.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH AND EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE TO END THE MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
500MB SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A
BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST STORM IN MORE THAN A MONTH THAT COULD BRING P-TYPE ISSUES BACK
TO THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO NEAR +8C BY TUESDAY NIGHT SO WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
SOME SNOW TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A
WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLE EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REMAIN BUT BOTH SHOW A DEEPENING LOW CUTTING
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. COLD
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
SNOWFALL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...LOWERING CLOUDS TO MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW
AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/WCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/WCH
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 271359
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
859 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE TODAY...WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD SEE
UNEVENTFUL BUT CONTINUED COLD WEATHER TODAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS WILL REDIRECT ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE. SUBSIDENCE
WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP
IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID SINGLE NUMBERS TO THE MID
TEENS...DESPITE THE SUNSHINE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ALONG THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS INLAND AND NEAR
MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE BITTER COLD OF RECENT WEEKS WILL RELAX DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL RESULT IN OUR REGION BEING
DOMINATED BY PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME AT THE
EXPENSE OF RECEIVING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THOUGH...AS WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE JET TYPICALLY COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

SATURDAY WILL UNDOUBTEDLY PROVE TO BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
SUPPLY THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. A SOLID CAP UNDER 5K FT...A MODERATELY SHEARED
BOUNDARY LAYER AND PLENTY OF ICE ON THE EASTERN END OF LK ONTARIO
WILL ALL WORK AGAINST ANYTHING ORGANIZED AND KEEP ACCUMULATIONS
UNDER AN INCH (CENTERED ON TUG HILL). THIS WILL BE THE LAST REAL
COLD DAY IN AWHILE AS MAX TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WHILE PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL STREAK EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHED UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD DOME OF AIR OVER OUR REGION
BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF A WAVY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
DEEPENING LIFT SUPPLIED BY A 140KT H25 JET AND WARM ADVECTION IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS FIRST DAY OF MARCH
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH IN MOST AREAS TO AS MUCH AS 3
INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
RAISING POPS...GOING WITH NEAR 90 IN THE WEST AND 80 EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 20 POINTS HIGHER THAN THE
MAINSTREAM MOS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET...A
VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE PLOWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2/3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE BOOSTED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS TO 100.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH AND EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE TO END THE MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
500MB SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A
BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST STORM IN MORE THAN A MONTH THAT COULD BRING P-TYPE ISSUES BACK
TO THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO NEAR +8C BY TUESDAY NIGHT SO WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
SOME SNOW TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A
WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLE EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REMAIN BUT BOTH SHOW A DEEPENING LOW CUTTING
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. COLD
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
SNOWFALL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...LOWERING CLOUDS TO MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW
AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/WCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/WCH
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 271359
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
859 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE TODAY...WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD SEE
UNEVENTFUL BUT CONTINUED COLD WEATHER TODAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS WILL REDIRECT ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE. SUBSIDENCE
WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP
IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID SINGLE NUMBERS TO THE MID
TEENS...DESPITE THE SUNSHINE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ALONG THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS INLAND AND NEAR
MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE BITTER COLD OF RECENT WEEKS WILL RELAX DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL RESULT IN OUR REGION BEING
DOMINATED BY PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME AT THE
EXPENSE OF RECEIVING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THOUGH...AS WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE JET TYPICALLY COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

SATURDAY WILL UNDOUBTEDLY PROVE TO BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
SUPPLY THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. A SOLID CAP UNDER 5K FT...A MODERATELY SHEARED
BOUNDARY LAYER AND PLENTY OF ICE ON THE EASTERN END OF LK ONTARIO
WILL ALL WORK AGAINST ANYTHING ORGANIZED AND KEEP ACCUMULATIONS
UNDER AN INCH (CENTERED ON TUG HILL). THIS WILL BE THE LAST REAL
COLD DAY IN AWHILE AS MAX TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WHILE PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL STREAK EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHED UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD DOME OF AIR OVER OUR REGION
BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF A WAVY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
DEEPENING LIFT SUPPLIED BY A 140KT H25 JET AND WARM ADVECTION IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS FIRST DAY OF MARCH
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH IN MOST AREAS TO AS MUCH AS 3
INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
RAISING POPS...GOING WITH NEAR 90 IN THE WEST AND 80 EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 20 POINTS HIGHER THAN THE
MAINSTREAM MOS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET...A
VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE PLOWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2/3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE BOOSTED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS TO 100.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH AND EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE TO END THE MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
500MB SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A
BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST STORM IN MORE THAN A MONTH THAT COULD BRING P-TYPE ISSUES BACK
TO THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO NEAR +8C BY TUESDAY NIGHT SO WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
SOME SNOW TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A
WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLE EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REMAIN BUT BOTH SHOW A DEEPENING LOW CUTTING
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. COLD
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
SNOWFALL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...LOWERING CLOUDS TO MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW
AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/WCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/WCH
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KOKX 271150 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
649 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. A QUICK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...A 1039 HI WAS CENTERED OVER ERN NEB AT 8Z. THIS HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THRU SAT. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANY PCPN TODAY...WITH PW/S AROUND 1/4 INCH AND FALLING. BY 12Z
SAT PW/S OF AROUND 0.05 INCHES ARE PROGGED. STRONG SHRTWV ENERGY
THIS AFTN COINCIDENT WITH SOME RESIDUAL MID LVL MOISTURE MAY BE
ABLE TO PRODUCE A FLURRY OR TWO. BY THIS EVE...THE AIRMASS SHOULD
JUST BE TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING TO FALL. A BLEND OF MOS WITH THE PREV
OFFICIAL WAS USED FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SUNNY AND COLD WITH TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. THE HI IS
PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 1045 BY 00Z SUN...WITH THE CENTER
OF THE HI JUST W OF THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS
THRU THE DAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING CALM ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTS AND CITY BY DARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S
     WITH NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING A FEW DEGREES IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER ON MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE WARMER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN RISE TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR FORECAST.

N WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT THIS MORNING BECOME NW 7-11 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NW OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 350-020 TRUE
(360-030 MAGNETIC) THIS MORNING. LOW CHANCE MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 340-020 TRUE
(010-030 MAGNETIC) THIS MORNING. LOW CHANCE MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 350-020 TRUE
(360-030 MAGNETIC) THIS MORNING. LOW CHANCE MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.SAT-SUN AFTERNOON...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING...MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW.
.MON AFTERNOON-TUE AFTERNOON...VFR.
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AROUND 5 FT TODAY ON THE OCEAN. WINDS BLW 25KT SO THE SCA
WAS CONVERTED TO A SCA FOR SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS
TONIGHT AND SAT WITH HI PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W. BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SNOW EVENT LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KOKX 271150 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
649 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. A QUICK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...A 1039 HI WAS CENTERED OVER ERN NEB AT 8Z. THIS HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THRU SAT. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANY PCPN TODAY...WITH PW/S AROUND 1/4 INCH AND FALLING. BY 12Z
SAT PW/S OF AROUND 0.05 INCHES ARE PROGGED. STRONG SHRTWV ENERGY
THIS AFTN COINCIDENT WITH SOME RESIDUAL MID LVL MOISTURE MAY BE
ABLE TO PRODUCE A FLURRY OR TWO. BY THIS EVE...THE AIRMASS SHOULD
JUST BE TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING TO FALL. A BLEND OF MOS WITH THE PREV
OFFICIAL WAS USED FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SUNNY AND COLD WITH TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. THE HI IS
PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 1045 BY 00Z SUN...WITH THE CENTER
OF THE HI JUST W OF THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS
THRU THE DAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING CALM ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTS AND CITY BY DARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S
     WITH NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING A FEW DEGREES IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER ON MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE WARMER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN RISE TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR FORECAST.

N WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT THIS MORNING BECOME NW 7-11 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NW OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 350-020 TRUE
(360-030 MAGNETIC) THIS MORNING. LOW CHANCE MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 340-020 TRUE
(010-030 MAGNETIC) THIS MORNING. LOW CHANCE MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 350-020 TRUE
(360-030 MAGNETIC) THIS MORNING. LOW CHANCE MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.SAT-SUN AFTERNOON...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING...MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW.
.MON AFTERNOON-TUE AFTERNOON...VFR.
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AROUND 5 FT TODAY ON THE OCEAN. WINDS BLW 25KT SO THE SCA
WAS CONVERTED TO A SCA FOR SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS
TONIGHT AND SAT WITH HI PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W. BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SNOW EVENT LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KBUF 271148
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
648 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE TODAY...WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD SEE
UNEVENTFUL BUT CONTINUED COLD WEATHER TODAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPECT VERY LIGHT MESOSCALE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO. SKIES ARE WILL CLEAR THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES NORTH OF THE REGION SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL REDIRECT ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE. SUBSIDENCE
WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT AND KEEPS
IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. SKIES
WILL BE SUNNY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE MIXES OUT. HIGH TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID SINGLE NUMBERS TO THE MID
TEENS...DESPITE THE SUNSHINE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ALONG THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS INLAND AND NEAR
MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE BITTER COLD OF RECENT WEEKS WILL RELAX DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL RESULT IN OUR REGION BEING
DOMINATED BY PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME AT THE
EXPENSE OF RECEIVING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THOUGH...AS WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE JET TYPICALLY COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

SATURDAY WILL UNDOUBTEDLY PROVE TO BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
SUPPLY THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. A SOLID CAP UNDER 5K FT...A MODERATELY SHEARED
BOUNDARY LAYER AND PLENTY OF ICE ON THE EASTERN END OF LK ONTARIO
WILL ALL WORK AGAINST ANYTHING ORGANIZED AND KEEP ACCUMULATIONS
UNDER AN INCH (CENTERED ON TUG HILL). THIS WILL BE THE LAST REAL
COLD DAY IN AWHILE AS MAX TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WHILE PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL STREAK EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHED UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD DOME OF AIR OVER OUR REGION
BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF A WAVY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
DEEPENING LIFT SUPPLIED BY A 140KT H25 JET AND WARM ADVECTION IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS FIRST DAY OF MARCH
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH IN MOST AREAS TO AS MUCH AS 3
INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
RAISING POPS...GOING WITH NEAR 90 IN THE WEST AND 80 EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 20 POINTS HIGHER THAN THE
MAINSTREAM MOS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET...A
VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE PLOWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2/3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE BOOSTED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS TO 100.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH AND EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE TO END THE MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
500MB SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A
BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST STORM IN MORE THAN A MONTH THAT COULD BRING P-TYPE ISSUES BACK
TO THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO NEAR +8C BY TUESDAY NIGHT SO WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
SOME SNOW TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A
WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLE EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REMAIN BUT BOTH SHOW A DEEPENING LOW CUTTING
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. COLD
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
SNOWFALL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE
MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS AND SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION WHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...LOWERING CLOUDS TO MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY
AND THEN WESTERLY DURING FRIDAY.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH/ZAFF
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 271148
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
648 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE TODAY...WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD SEE
UNEVENTFUL BUT CONTINUED COLD WEATHER TODAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPECT VERY LIGHT MESOSCALE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO. SKIES ARE WILL CLEAR THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES NORTH OF THE REGION SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL REDIRECT ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE. SUBSIDENCE
WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT AND KEEPS
IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. SKIES
WILL BE SUNNY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE MIXES OUT. HIGH TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID SINGLE NUMBERS TO THE MID
TEENS...DESPITE THE SUNSHINE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ALONG THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS INLAND AND NEAR
MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE BITTER COLD OF RECENT WEEKS WILL RELAX DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL RESULT IN OUR REGION BEING
DOMINATED BY PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME AT THE
EXPENSE OF RECEIVING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THOUGH...AS WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE JET TYPICALLY COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

SATURDAY WILL UNDOUBTEDLY PROVE TO BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
SUPPLY THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. A SOLID CAP UNDER 5K FT...A MODERATELY SHEARED
BOUNDARY LAYER AND PLENTY OF ICE ON THE EASTERN END OF LK ONTARIO
WILL ALL WORK AGAINST ANYTHING ORGANIZED AND KEEP ACCUMULATIONS
UNDER AN INCH (CENTERED ON TUG HILL). THIS WILL BE THE LAST REAL
COLD DAY IN AWHILE AS MAX TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WHILE PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL STREAK EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHED UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD DOME OF AIR OVER OUR REGION
BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF A WAVY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
DEEPENING LIFT SUPPLIED BY A 140KT H25 JET AND WARM ADVECTION IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS FIRST DAY OF MARCH
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH IN MOST AREAS TO AS MUCH AS 3
INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
RAISING POPS...GOING WITH NEAR 90 IN THE WEST AND 80 EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 20 POINTS HIGHER THAN THE
MAINSTREAM MOS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET...A
VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE PLOWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2/3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE BOOSTED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS TO 100.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH AND EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE TO END THE MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
500MB SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A
BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST STORM IN MORE THAN A MONTH THAT COULD BRING P-TYPE ISSUES BACK
TO THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO NEAR +8C BY TUESDAY NIGHT SO WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
SOME SNOW TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A
WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLE EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REMAIN BUT BOTH SHOW A DEEPENING LOW CUTTING
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. COLD
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
SNOWFALL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE
MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS AND SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION WHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...LOWERING CLOUDS TO MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY
AND THEN WESTERLY DURING FRIDAY.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH/ZAFF
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 271148
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
648 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE TODAY...WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD SEE
UNEVENTFUL BUT CONTINUED COLD WEATHER TODAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPECT VERY LIGHT MESOSCALE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO. SKIES ARE WILL CLEAR THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES NORTH OF THE REGION SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL REDIRECT ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE. SUBSIDENCE
WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT AND KEEPS
IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. SKIES
WILL BE SUNNY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE MIXES OUT. HIGH TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID SINGLE NUMBERS TO THE MID
TEENS...DESPITE THE SUNSHINE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ALONG THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS INLAND AND NEAR
MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE BITTER COLD OF RECENT WEEKS WILL RELAX DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL RESULT IN OUR REGION BEING
DOMINATED BY PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME AT THE
EXPENSE OF RECEIVING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THOUGH...AS WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE JET TYPICALLY COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

SATURDAY WILL UNDOUBTEDLY PROVE TO BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
SUPPLY THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. A SOLID CAP UNDER 5K FT...A MODERATELY SHEARED
BOUNDARY LAYER AND PLENTY OF ICE ON THE EASTERN END OF LK ONTARIO
WILL ALL WORK AGAINST ANYTHING ORGANIZED AND KEEP ACCUMULATIONS
UNDER AN INCH (CENTERED ON TUG HILL). THIS WILL BE THE LAST REAL
COLD DAY IN AWHILE AS MAX TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WHILE PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL STREAK EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHED UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD DOME OF AIR OVER OUR REGION
BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF A WAVY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
DEEPENING LIFT SUPPLIED BY A 140KT H25 JET AND WARM ADVECTION IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS FIRST DAY OF MARCH
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH IN MOST AREAS TO AS MUCH AS 3
INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
RAISING POPS...GOING WITH NEAR 90 IN THE WEST AND 80 EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 20 POINTS HIGHER THAN THE
MAINSTREAM MOS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET...A
VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE PLOWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2/3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE BOOSTED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS TO 100.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH AND EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE TO END THE MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
500MB SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A
BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST STORM IN MORE THAN A MONTH THAT COULD BRING P-TYPE ISSUES BACK
TO THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO NEAR +8C BY TUESDAY NIGHT SO WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
SOME SNOW TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A
WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLE EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REMAIN BUT BOTH SHOW A DEEPENING LOW CUTTING
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. COLD
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
SNOWFALL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE
MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS AND SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION WHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...LOWERING CLOUDS TO MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY
AND THEN WESTERLY DURING FRIDAY.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH/ZAFF
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 271148
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
648 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE TODAY...WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD SEE
UNEVENTFUL BUT CONTINUED COLD WEATHER TODAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPECT VERY LIGHT MESOSCALE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO. SKIES ARE WILL CLEAR THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES NORTH OF THE REGION SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL REDIRECT ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE. SUBSIDENCE
WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT AND KEEPS
IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. SKIES
WILL BE SUNNY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE MIXES OUT. HIGH TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID SINGLE NUMBERS TO THE MID
TEENS...DESPITE THE SUNSHINE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ALONG THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS INLAND AND NEAR
MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE BITTER COLD OF RECENT WEEKS WILL RELAX DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL RESULT IN OUR REGION BEING
DOMINATED BY PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME AT THE
EXPENSE OF RECEIVING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THOUGH...AS WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE JET TYPICALLY COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

SATURDAY WILL UNDOUBTEDLY PROVE TO BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
SUPPLY THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. A SOLID CAP UNDER 5K FT...A MODERATELY SHEARED
BOUNDARY LAYER AND PLENTY OF ICE ON THE EASTERN END OF LK ONTARIO
WILL ALL WORK AGAINST ANYTHING ORGANIZED AND KEEP ACCUMULATIONS
UNDER AN INCH (CENTERED ON TUG HILL). THIS WILL BE THE LAST REAL
COLD DAY IN AWHILE AS MAX TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WHILE PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL STREAK EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHED UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD DOME OF AIR OVER OUR REGION
BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF A WAVY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
DEEPENING LIFT SUPPLIED BY A 140KT H25 JET AND WARM ADVECTION IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS FIRST DAY OF MARCH
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH IN MOST AREAS TO AS MUCH AS 3
INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
RAISING POPS...GOING WITH NEAR 90 IN THE WEST AND 80 EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 20 POINTS HIGHER THAN THE
MAINSTREAM MOS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET...A
VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE PLOWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2/3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE BOOSTED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS TO 100.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH AND EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE TO END THE MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
500MB SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A
BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST STORM IN MORE THAN A MONTH THAT COULD BRING P-TYPE ISSUES BACK
TO THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO NEAR +8C BY TUESDAY NIGHT SO WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
SOME SNOW TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A
WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLE EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REMAIN BUT BOTH SHOW A DEEPENING LOW CUTTING
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. COLD
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
SNOWFALL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE
MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS AND SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION WHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...LOWERING CLOUDS TO MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY
AND THEN WESTERLY DURING FRIDAY.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH/ZAFF
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 271148
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
648 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE TODAY...WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD SEE
UNEVENTFUL BUT CONTINUED COLD WEATHER TODAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPECT VERY LIGHT MESOSCALE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO. SKIES ARE WILL CLEAR THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES NORTH OF THE REGION SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL REDIRECT ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE TO THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE. SUBSIDENCE
WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS THE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT AND KEEPS
IT TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. SKIES
WILL BE SUNNY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE MIXES OUT. HIGH TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID SINGLE NUMBERS TO THE MID
TEENS...DESPITE THE SUNSHINE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ALONG THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORE TO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE NUMBERS INLAND AND NEAR
MINUS 10 OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE BITTER COLD OF RECENT WEEKS WILL RELAX DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL RESULT IN OUR REGION BEING
DOMINATED BY PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME AT THE
EXPENSE OF RECEIVING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THOUGH...AS WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE JET TYPICALLY COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

SATURDAY WILL UNDOUBTEDLY PROVE TO BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND
DAYS AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL
SUPPLY THE BULK OF OUR REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. A SOLID CAP UNDER 5K FT...A MODERATELY SHEARED
BOUNDARY LAYER AND PLENTY OF ICE ON THE EASTERN END OF LK ONTARIO
WILL ALL WORK AGAINST ANYTHING ORGANIZED AND KEEP ACCUMULATIONS
UNDER AN INCH (CENTERED ON TUG HILL). THIS WILL BE THE LAST REAL
COLD DAY IN AWHILE AS MAX TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WHILE PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL STREAK EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHED UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD DOME OF AIR OVER OUR REGION
BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF A WAVY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
DEEPENING LIFT SUPPLIED BY A 140KT H25 JET AND WARM ADVECTION IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS FIRST DAY OF MARCH
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN INCH IN MOST AREAS TO AS MUCH AS 3
INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
RAISING POPS...GOING WITH NEAR 90 IN THE WEST AND 80 EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 20 POINTS HIGHER THAN THE
MAINSTREAM MOS GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

THE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET...A
VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE PLOWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2/3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS SCENARIO...HAVE BOOSTED SUNDAY NIGHT POPS TO 100.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH AND EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE TO END THE MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WHILE PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
500MB SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A
BROAD WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DEEPENING
GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST STORM IN MORE THAN A MONTH THAT COULD BRING P-TYPE ISSUES BACK
TO THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE
TO NEAR +8C BY TUESDAY NIGHT SO WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
SOME SNOW TUESDAY EVENTUALLY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A
WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLE EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REMAIN BUT BOTH SHOW A DEEPENING LOW CUTTING
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH THE WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. COLD
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
SNOWFALL AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE
MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS AND SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION WHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...LOWERING CLOUDS TO MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY
AND THEN WESTERLY DURING FRIDAY.  LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH/ZAFF
CLIMATE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 271146
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
646 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. A QUICK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...A 1039 HI WAS CENTERED OVER ERN NEB AT 8Z. THIS HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THRU SAT. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANY PCPN TODAY...WITH PW/S AROUND 1/4 INCH AND FALLING. BY 12Z
SAT PW/S OF AROUND 0.05 INCHES ARE PROGGED. STRONG SHRTWV ENERGY
THIS AFTN COINCIDENT WITH SOME RESIDUAL MID LVL MOISTURE MAY BE
ABLE TO PRODUCE A FLURRY OR TWO. BY THIS EVE...THE AIRMASS SHOULD
JUST BE TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING TO FALL. A BLEND OF MOS WITH THE PREV
OFFICIAL WAS USED FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SUNNY AND COLD WITH TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. THE HI IS
PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 1045 BY 00Z SUN...WITH THE CENTER
OF THE HI JUST W OF THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS
THRU THE DAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING CALM ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTS AND CITY BY DARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S
     WITH NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING A FEW DEGREES IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER ON MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE WARMER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN RISE TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR FORECAST.

N WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT THIS MORNING BECOME NW 7-11 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NW OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 350-020 TRUE
(360-030 MAGNETIC) THIS MORNING. LOW CHANCE MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 340-020 TRUE
(010-030 MAGNETIC) THIS MORNING. LOW CHANCE MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 350-020 TRUE
(360-030 MAGNETIC) THIS MORNING. LOW CHANCE MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.LATE FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY AFTERNOON...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON MORNING...MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW.
.MON AFTERNOON-TUE AFTERNOON...VFR.
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AROUND 5 FT TODAY ON THE OCEAN. WINDS BLW 25KT SO THE SCA
WAS CONVERTED TO A SCA FOR SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS
TONIGHT AND SAT WITH HI PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W. BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SNOW EVENT LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KOKX 271146
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
646 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. A QUICK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...A 1039 HI WAS CENTERED OVER ERN NEB AT 8Z. THIS HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THRU SAT. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANY PCPN TODAY...WITH PW/S AROUND 1/4 INCH AND FALLING. BY 12Z
SAT PW/S OF AROUND 0.05 INCHES ARE PROGGED. STRONG SHRTWV ENERGY
THIS AFTN COINCIDENT WITH SOME RESIDUAL MID LVL MOISTURE MAY BE
ABLE TO PRODUCE A FLURRY OR TWO. BY THIS EVE...THE AIRMASS SHOULD
JUST BE TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING TO FALL. A BLEND OF MOS WITH THE PREV
OFFICIAL WAS USED FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SUNNY AND COLD WITH TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BLW CLIMO. THE HI IS
PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 1045 BY 00Z SUN...WITH THE CENTER
OF THE HI JUST W OF THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS
THRU THE DAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING CALM ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTS AND CITY BY DARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S
     WITH NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING A FEW DEGREES IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER ON MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE WARMER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN RISE TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR FORECAST.

N WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT THIS MORNING BECOME NW 7-11 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NW OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 350-020 TRUE
(360-030 MAGNETIC) THIS MORNING. LOW CHANCE MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 340-020 TRUE
(010-030 MAGNETIC) THIS MORNING. LOW CHANCE MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 350-020 TRUE
(360-030 MAGNETIC) THIS MORNING. LOW CHANCE MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.LATE FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY AFTERNOON...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON MORNING...MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW.
.MON AFTERNOON-TUE AFTERNOON...VFR.
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AROUND 5 FT TODAY ON THE OCEAN. WINDS BLW 25KT SO THE SCA
WAS CONVERTED TO A SCA FOR SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS
TONIGHT AND SAT WITH HI PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W. BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SNOW EVENT LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KALY 271145
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 632 AM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

SKY COVER VARIES ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS IS HAVING AN IMPACT
ON MORNING TEMPS AS WELL. MOST OF THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
AND GLENS FALLS AREA IS NEARLY CLEAR...AND TEMPS ARE GENERALLY -5
TO -20 F ACROSS THESE AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH...THERE HAVE BEEN
PATCHES OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE CAPITAL
REGION...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS
KEPT TEMPS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THESE AREAS. CLOUDS
ARE STARTING TO BREAK UP...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE ALBANY AND BENNINGTON AREAS ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

DESPITE THESE PATCHES OF MORNING CLOUDS...SKY COVER SHOULD
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT...AND THE BEST VORTICITY STARTS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD. MOST AREAS WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO BE RATHER COLD...WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS OF -15 TO -19 DEGREES C. THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AT THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MID LEVEL DECK WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WITH LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING/DISSIPATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR AT KALB AND POSSIBLY KPSF
THIS MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEN DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KBGM 271145
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
645 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS, AND LOWS NEAR OR BELOW
ZERO AGAIN. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
400 AM UPDATE...
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.
BEYOND DAYBREAK DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL PUT AN END TO MOST OF
THIS. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A LIGHT DUSTING.

COLD AIR WILL AGAIN BE THE BIG STORY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE TEENS. TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY, IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO DROP BELOW ZERO.
WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR CALM) WIND CHILLS FOR THE
MOST PART WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AND IT WILL JUST BE PLAIN OLD COLD
AIR ITSELF. I DID LEAVE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES IN THE HWO BECAUSE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE CATSKILLS
BACK THROUGH CORTLAND COUNTY HAVE ENOUGH OF A BREEZE (4 TO 5 MPH)
TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AT THE LOW END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE (-15
TO -17). AFTER WHAT WE HAVE BEEN THROUGH, NOT NEARLY AS BAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND TO OUR WEST BY
12Z MONDAY WILL PRODUCE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS TYPE OF TRACK/INTENSITY DOESN`T SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. FOR A FIRST SNOW ESTIMATE WENT UNDER WPC GUIDANCE
WITH A 2 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL AREAWIDE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE ONSET
TIME WITH THE GFS HOLDING OFF PRECIP UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDAY EVENING,
WITH THE EURO FASTER AND THE CANADIAN A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH AN
AFTERNOON ONSET. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD AS PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE...A TRANSITION THAT WILL NOT OCCUR QUIETLY.

SUNDAY BEGINS QUIET WITH SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...BRISK
ZONAL FLOW WILL SEND ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLUMN WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.
IT LOOKS QUITE CERTAIN NOW THAT IT WILL BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW...YET IT ALSO SHOULD HIT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LIMIT AMOUNTS. AT
THIS POINT WE ARE EXPECTING A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES
ACCUMULATION...ADVISORY AMOUNTS AT WORST. BY DAWN MONDAY...WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND PROBABLY JUST A FEW FLURRIES LEFT BY
THEN /MAINLY CENTRAL NY/.

LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING QUICKLY
OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...INCLUDING DEVELOPMENT OF
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION VIA STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. BROAD SHIELD OF WARM FRONTAL MOISTURE APPEARS LIKELY TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY INTO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE
OF COLD AIR LINGERING LONGER NEAR THE SURFACE...YET QUICKLY
WARMING ALOFT...THIS COULD EASILY LEAD TO MIX OF
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY SOME SNOW TUESDAY THEN WINTRY MIX
INCLUDING POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST HOW WARM THE SURFACE WILL
MANAGE TO GET CONSIDERING THE REGIONAL SNOW PACK...BUT AT THIS TIME
WE ARE FIGURING ON MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY. COLD
FRONT THEN TO COME THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO SOME COLDER AIR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LINGERING LGT SNOW AT ITH WILL END SHRTLY AFT SUNRISE BRINGING ALL
STATIONS TO VFR CONDS THIS MRNG. VFR CONDS WILL HOLD THRU THE TAF
PD AS HIPRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. LGT WLY WINDS AHD OF THE HIPRES
TODAY WILL BECOME MSTLY VRBL TNGT.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN OR MIX AS SYSTEM MOVES
IN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 271145
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 632 AM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

SKY COVER VARIES ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS IS HAVING AN IMPACT
ON MORNING TEMPS AS WELL. MOST OF THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
AND GLENS FALLS AREA IS NEARLY CLEAR...AND TEMPS ARE GENERALLY -5
TO -20 F ACROSS THESE AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH...THERE HAVE BEEN
PATCHES OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE CAPITAL
REGION...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS
KEPT TEMPS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THESE AREAS. CLOUDS
ARE STARTING TO BREAK UP...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE ALBANY AND BENNINGTON AREAS ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

DESPITE THESE PATCHES OF MORNING CLOUDS...SKY COVER SHOULD
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT...AND THE BEST VORTICITY STARTS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD. MOST AREAS WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO BE RATHER COLD...WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS OF -15 TO -19 DEGREES C. THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AT THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MID LEVEL DECK WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WITH LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING/DISSIPATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR AT KALB AND POSSIBLY KPSF
THIS MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEN DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KBGM 271145
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
645 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS, AND LOWS NEAR OR BELOW
ZERO AGAIN. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
400 AM UPDATE...
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.
BEYOND DAYBREAK DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL PUT AN END TO MOST OF
THIS. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A LIGHT DUSTING.

COLD AIR WILL AGAIN BE THE BIG STORY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE TEENS. TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY, IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO DROP BELOW ZERO.
WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR CALM) WIND CHILLS FOR THE
MOST PART WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AND IT WILL JUST BE PLAIN OLD COLD
AIR ITSELF. I DID LEAVE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES IN THE HWO BECAUSE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE CATSKILLS
BACK THROUGH CORTLAND COUNTY HAVE ENOUGH OF A BREEZE (4 TO 5 MPH)
TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AT THE LOW END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE (-15
TO -17). AFTER WHAT WE HAVE BEEN THROUGH, NOT NEARLY AS BAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND TO OUR WEST BY
12Z MONDAY WILL PRODUCE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS TYPE OF TRACK/INTENSITY DOESN`T SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. FOR A FIRST SNOW ESTIMATE WENT UNDER WPC GUIDANCE
WITH A 2 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL AREAWIDE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE ONSET
TIME WITH THE GFS HOLDING OFF PRECIP UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDAY EVENING,
WITH THE EURO FASTER AND THE CANADIAN A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH AN
AFTERNOON ONSET. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD AS PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE...A TRANSITION THAT WILL NOT OCCUR QUIETLY.

SUNDAY BEGINS QUIET WITH SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...BRISK
ZONAL FLOW WILL SEND ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLUMN WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.
IT LOOKS QUITE CERTAIN NOW THAT IT WILL BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW...YET IT ALSO SHOULD HIT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LIMIT AMOUNTS. AT
THIS POINT WE ARE EXPECTING A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES
ACCUMULATION...ADVISORY AMOUNTS AT WORST. BY DAWN MONDAY...WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND PROBABLY JUST A FEW FLURRIES LEFT BY
THEN /MAINLY CENTRAL NY/.

LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING QUICKLY
OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...INCLUDING DEVELOPMENT OF
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION VIA STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. BROAD SHIELD OF WARM FRONTAL MOISTURE APPEARS LIKELY TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY INTO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE
OF COLD AIR LINGERING LONGER NEAR THE SURFACE...YET QUICKLY
WARMING ALOFT...THIS COULD EASILY LEAD TO MIX OF
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY SOME SNOW TUESDAY THEN WINTRY MIX
INCLUDING POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST HOW WARM THE SURFACE WILL
MANAGE TO GET CONSIDERING THE REGIONAL SNOW PACK...BUT AT THIS TIME
WE ARE FIGURING ON MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY. COLD
FRONT THEN TO COME THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO SOME COLDER AIR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LINGERING LGT SNOW AT ITH WILL END SHRTLY AFT SUNRISE BRINGING ALL
STATIONS TO VFR CONDS THIS MRNG. VFR CONDS WILL HOLD THRU THE TAF
PD AS HIPRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. LGT WLY WINDS AHD OF THE HIPRES
TODAY WILL BECOME MSTLY VRBL TNGT.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN OR MIX AS SYSTEM MOVES
IN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM






000
FXUS61 KALY 271132
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
632 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 632 AM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

SKY COVER VARIES ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS IS HAVING AN IMPACT
ON MORNING TEMPS AS WELL. MOST OF THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
AND GLENS FALLS AREA IS NEARLY CLEAR...AND TEMPS ARE GENERALLY -5
TO -20 F ACROSS THESE AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH...THERE HAVE BEEN
PATCHES OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE CAPITAL
REGION...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS
KEPT TEMPS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THESE AREAS. CLOUDS
ARE STARTING TO BREAK UP...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE ALBANY AND BENNINGTON AREAS ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

DESPITE THESE PATCHES OF MORNING CLOUDS...SKY COVER SHOULD
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT...AND THE BEST VORTICITY STARTS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD. MOST AREAS WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO BE RATHER COLD...WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS OF -15 TO -19 DEGREES C. THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AT THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
BACK IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE MID LEVEL DECK WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING.
WITH LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING/DISSIPATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR AT KALB AND POSSIBLY
EARLY THIS MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEN DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 271132
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
632 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 632 AM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

SKY COVER VARIES ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS IS HAVING AN IMPACT
ON MORNING TEMPS AS WELL. MOST OF THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
AND GLENS FALLS AREA IS NEARLY CLEAR...AND TEMPS ARE GENERALLY -5
TO -20 F ACROSS THESE AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH...THERE HAVE BEEN
PATCHES OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE CAPITAL
REGION...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS
KEPT TEMPS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THESE AREAS. CLOUDS
ARE STARTING TO BREAK UP...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE ALBANY AND BENNINGTON AREAS ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

DESPITE THESE PATCHES OF MORNING CLOUDS...SKY COVER SHOULD
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT...AND THE BEST VORTICITY STARTS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD. MOST AREAS WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO BE RATHER COLD...WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS OF -15 TO -19 DEGREES C. THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AT THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
BACK IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE MID LEVEL DECK WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING.
WITH LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING/DISSIPATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR AT KALB AND POSSIBLY
EARLY THIS MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEN DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271130
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH QUIET AND COLD WEATHER.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL BE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 629 AM EST FRIDAY...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS. CLEARING SKIES HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE AREA...ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...AND A MIX
OF SUN AND CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS...ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EST FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLANS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND SNOW WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST. SNOWFALL WILL
BE LIGHT WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EST FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND IT WILL BE
FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY HOWEVER...AFFECTING MAINLY THE WESTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE JUST A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

DRY AND A BIT COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS THEN
QUICKLY RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR TO STREAM INTO
FORECAST AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
AROUND +4C ON WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT TO
TRANSITION TO A MIX IN MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND .75 INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE
PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LOW DEPARTS TOP THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS REGION
AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TODAY
WITH SKIES TRENDING TO SKC BY 00Z SATURDAY. WINDS WEST TO
NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271130
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH QUIET AND COLD WEATHER.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL BE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 629 AM EST FRIDAY...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS. CLEARING SKIES HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE AREA...ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...AND A MIX
OF SUN AND CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS...ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EST FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLANS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND SNOW WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST. SNOWFALL WILL
BE LIGHT WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EST FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND IT WILL BE
FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY HOWEVER...AFFECTING MAINLY THE WESTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE JUST A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

DRY AND A BIT COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS THEN
QUICKLY RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR TO STREAM INTO
FORECAST AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
AROUND +4C ON WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT TO
TRANSITION TO A MIX IN MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND .75 INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE
PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LOW DEPARTS TOP THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS REGION
AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TODAY
WITH SKIES TRENDING TO SKC BY 00Z SATURDAY. WINDS WEST TO
NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 271126
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
626 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH QUIET AND COLD WEATHER.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL BE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE AREA...ARCTIC AIR IN
PLACE...AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS ABOVE ZERO. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EST FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLANS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND SNOW WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST. SNOWFALL WILL
BE LIGHT WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EST FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND IT WILL BE
FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY HOWEVER...AFFECTING MAINLY THE WESTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE JUST A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

DRY AND A BIT COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS THEN
QUICKLY RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR TO STREAM INTO
FORECAST AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
AROUND +4C ON WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT TO
TRANSITION TO A MIX IN MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND .75 INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE
PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LOW DEPARTS TOP THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS REGION
AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TODAY
WITH SKIES TRENDING TO SKC BY 00Z SATURDAY. WINDS WEST TO
NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



000
FXUS61 KALY 270959
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
459 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 459 AM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT THE
SURFACE...A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEYS.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MAINLY UPSTREAM OF THE REGION...THERE ARE A LOT
OF CLOUDS IN PLACE. WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLURRIES FROM
TIME TO TIME EARLY THIS MORNING...THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS KEEPING THESE FLURRIES FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...AND VERY LIGHT
WHEN THEY DO OCCUR.

EVEN DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE REGION THANKS TO THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...SO CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP THIS MORNING AND ANY
FLURRIES WILL END...AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT...AND THE
BEST VORTICITY STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD.  MOST AREAS WILL BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER COLD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS OF -15 TO -19 DEGREES C. THIS
LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH.

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AT THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
BACK IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE MID LEVEL DECK WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING.
WITH LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING/DISSIPATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR AT KALB AND POSSIBLY
EARLY THIS MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEN DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KBGM 270907
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
407 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS, AND LOWS NEAR OR BELOW
ZERO AGAIN. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
400 AM UPDATE...
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.
BEYOND DAYBREAK DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL PUT AN END TO MOST OF
THIS. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A LIGHT DUSTING.

COLD AIR WILL AGAIN BE THE BIG STORY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE TEENS. TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY, IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO DROP BELOW ZERO.
WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR CALM) WIND CHILLS FOR THE
MOST PART WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AND IT WILL JUST BE PLAIN OLD COLD
AIR ITSELF. I DID LEAVE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES IN THE HWO BECAUSE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE CATSKILLS
BACK THROUGH CORTLAND COUNTY HAVE ENOUGH OF A BREEZE (4 TO 5 MPH)
TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AT THE LOW END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE (-15
TO -17). AFTER WHAT WE HAVE BEEN THROUGH, NOT NEARLY AS BAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND TO OUR WEST BY
12Z MONDAY WILL PRODUCE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS TYPE OF TRACK/INTENSITY DOESN`T SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. FOR A FIRST SNOW ESTIMATE WENT UNDER WPC GUIDANCE
WITH A 2 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL AREAWIDE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE ONSET
TIME WITH THE GFS HOLDING OFF PRECIP UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDAY EVENING,
WITH THE EURO FASTER AND THE CANADIAN A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH AN
AFTERNOON ONSET. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD AS PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE...A TRANSITION THAT WILL NOT OCCUR QUIETLY.

SUNDAY BEGINS QUIET WITH SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...BRISK
ZONAL FLOW WILL SEND ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLUMN WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.
IT LOOKS QUITE CERTAIN NOW THAT IT WILL BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW...YET IT ALSO SHOULD HIT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LIMIT AMOUNTS. AT
THIS POINT WE ARE EXPECTING A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES
ACCUMULATION...ADVISORY AMOUNTS AT WORST. BY DAWN MONDAY...WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND PROBABLY JUST A FEW FLURRIES LEFT BY
THEN /MAINLY CENTRAL NY/.

LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING QUICKLY
OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...INCLUDING DEVELOPMENT OF
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION VIA STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. BROAD SHIELD OF WARM FRONTAL MOISTURE APPEARS LIKELY TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY INTO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE
OF COLD AIR LINGERING L