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000
FXUS61 KBUF 232059
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
359 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY WARM
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARDS
ON THE NOSE OF A 60 TO 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY PROTECT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
ORIENTATION TO THE FLOW AND THE INVERSION SETTING UP NEAR THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VFR AS THE
SHOWERS END AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
         MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 232059
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
359 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY WARM
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARDS
ON THE NOSE OF A 60 TO 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY PROTECT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
ORIENTATION TO THE FLOW AND THE INVERSION SETTING UP NEAR THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VFR AS THE
SHOWERS END AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
         MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 232058
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
358 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER WILL KICK OFF LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRES
RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAWS A WARM FRONT THRU
THE TRI-STATE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON MON NGT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDING INTO THE THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DEPARTING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...WITH A ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM POSSIBLE
TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
RADAR COMPOSITE IS JUST BEGINNING TO SHOW THE ADVANCING SHIELD OF
RAIN S OF DC. THE 12Z MODEL DATA WAS ON TRACK WITH THE ONGOING
RAIN FCST SO LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED. TIMING IS STILL AFT
MIDNIGHT INTO MON MRNG...WITH MAINLY A FEW SHWRS THEREAFTER FOR
MOST OF MON. PCPN AMTS AROUND AN INCH.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN DOES LOOK TO FALL NEAR THE MRNG RUSH SO IMPACTS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

BY 12Z MON...THE CWA WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A 970S LOW OVER
THE UPR GREAT LAKES...AND A 1030S HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO STRONG SLY FLOW. THE GFS HAS H975 WINDS OVER
50KT FOR MOST OF LI...WHICH IS CONCERNING. HAVE MIXED DOWN 80
PERCENT OF THIS FOR THE FCST AND ISSUED A WIND ADVY FOR ALL OF
LI...INCLUDING BROOKLYN AND QUEENS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT
THE ADVY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NWD INTO CSTL CT IF DEEPER MIXING
OCCURS.

THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT SHIFT EWD THRU THE DAY...SO
ONLY KEPT THE WRN PORTION OF THE ADVY THRU THE MRNG. SUFFOLK
COUNTY FOR THE ENTIRE DAY.

THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS STILL POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT COMES THRU OVERNIGHT. THIS USHERS THE MORE
HUMID AIRMASS OFFSHORE. THE PRES GRAD STILL STAYS UP SO IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY THRU THE NGT. SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN BLW ADVY
CRITERIA WITH THE LOW APPROACHING LABRADOR. A FEW SHWRS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. THE NAM HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS SUGGESTION. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS FOR
THE PERIOD.

WITH THE COLD AIR LAGGING BEHIND AND WINDS KEEPING THE LLVLS
MIXED...LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABV
AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRANQUIL AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS ON TUES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN ITS
WAKE TUES NIGHT.

POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A COASTAL STORM WITH SNOW...RAIN
AND WIND TO IMPACT THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT...BUT SPREAD REMAINS
MODERATE IN TERMS OF EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST SENSITIVITY BASED ON SBU CSTAR ANALYSIS FOR THIS SYSTEM
LIES IN DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGH OVER THE EPAC OVER THE NEXT 48
HRS...AND RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM STRENGTH OF WEST COAST RIDGING AND
ULTIMATELY STRENGTH OF EAST COAST TROUGHING FOR MIDWEEK.
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE MODEL ANALYSIS REVEAL MID/UPPER LEVEL MODEL
FIELDS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS INITIALLY WITH
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND PAC ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEP CENTRAL US TROUGHING...WITH THIS ENERGY THEN SWINGING UP THE
COAST WED AND INTERACTING WITH YET ANOTHER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IT IS
WITH THIS SECOND INTERACTION...AFTER 48 HRS...THAT MODELS DIVERGE
ENOUGH TO AFFECT STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE PHASED SHORTWAVE
ENERGIES AS THEY PIVOT THROUGH THE NE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. THIS IS
RESULTING IN MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COASTAL LOW...BUT
MAINLY TRACK DIFFERENCES. THE RANGE OF OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ON
TRACK OF COASTAL LOW ARE...THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUING TO TREND WEST
AND TRACKING ACROSS LI WED NIGHT...TO THE 12Z NAM/CMC TRENDING WEST
AND PROJECTING WELL EAST OF BENCHMARK...AND 12Z GFS CONSISTENTLY
NEAR THE 40/70 LAT/LON.

WITH THIS SPREAD HAVE CONTINUED TO PLAY A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TRACK
BETWEEN CMC/GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH WOULD TRACK LOW
PRESSURE NEAR TO JUST INSIDE THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK WED NIGHT.
WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY COLD AIRMASS TO START...THIS TRACK WOULD
BRING MAINLY RAIN TO LI/SE CT...RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND
SW CT...AND MAINLY SNOW WELL N&W OF NYC...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WED
NIGHT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACK
NORTH. THIS MESHES FAIRLY WELL WITH WPC...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SEEING WARNING LEVEL SNOW RELEGATED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE
NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY..AND SW CT...AND ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
POSSIBLE INTO NYC METRO AND COASTAL SW CT SUN NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE VALUES IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT BASED ON ABOVE
MENTIONED SPREAD. PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW WITH THIS DAY 4 EVENT FOR A
DETERMINISTIC STORM TOTAL SNOW FORECAST.

ZONAL FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
GENERALLY QUIET AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SEASONABLE. A WEAK ALBERTA
CLIPPER MAY PASS TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03-05Z TONIGHT. RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBY DEVELOPS
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. LIFR AT TIMES IN RAIN POSSIBLE 9-14Z. CANNOT
RULE OUT THUNDER AROUND THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF NYC METRO.

IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS.

LIGHT S WINDS INTO THE EVENING TURN TOWARD THE SE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS AT 2000FT RANGING FROM 50-65 KT.

SURFACE WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY 10-13Z. SPEEDS
INCREASE QUICKLY TO 15 TO 25KT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KT. A FEW COASTAL
GUSTS COULD REACH 40 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...BECOMING VFR. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY.
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
.FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE ERN OCEAN REMAIN IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE...SO MAINTAINED
THE SCA TIL 23Z.

STRONG PRES GRAD SETS UP LATE TNGT ALLOWING FOR SLY FLOW THRU MON
NGT. GALES DEVELOP LATE TNGT AND CONTINUE THRU MON. WINDS DIMINISH
LATE MON NGT FROM W TO E. THE GALE WAS EXTENDED FOR THE ERN
WATERS...AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE REMAINING WATERS BASED
ON THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYS.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A TIGHT WNW
GRADIENT...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY TUE NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSE IN.

SCA CONDITIONS THEN LIKELY WED AFT THRU THU AS A COASTAL STORM
AFFECTS THE WATERS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MARGINAL GALE CONDS ON THE
EASTERN WATERS WED NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH
TO THE REGION. SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY
DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELLS AND TIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TNGT INTO MON. MINOR URBAN
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH IMPACTS LIKELY AROUND THE TIME
OF THE MRNG COMMUTE.

INCREASING POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION WED
INTO WED NIGHT. SOME PORTION OF THIS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS N&W OF THE NYC METRO.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOME OF THE MOST VULNERABLE SPOTS COULD TOUCH MINOR THRESHOLDS
DURING THE MON MRNG CYCLE. A STATEMENT IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
ATTM. AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED THIS EVE. SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION
IS POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SURF IN THE 5-8FT RANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ075-176>179.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ078>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JMC
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KOKX 232058
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
358 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER WILL KICK OFF LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRES
RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAWS A WARM FRONT THRU
THE TRI-STATE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON MON NGT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDING INTO THE THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DEPARTING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...WITH A ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM POSSIBLE
TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
RADAR COMPOSITE IS JUST BEGINNING TO SHOW THE ADVANCING SHIELD OF
RAIN S OF DC. THE 12Z MODEL DATA WAS ON TRACK WITH THE ONGOING
RAIN FCST SO LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED. TIMING IS STILL AFT
MIDNIGHT INTO MON MRNG...WITH MAINLY A FEW SHWRS THEREAFTER FOR
MOST OF MON. PCPN AMTS AROUND AN INCH.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN DOES LOOK TO FALL NEAR THE MRNG RUSH SO IMPACTS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

BY 12Z MON...THE CWA WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A 970S LOW OVER
THE UPR GREAT LAKES...AND A 1030S HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO STRONG SLY FLOW. THE GFS HAS H975 WINDS OVER
50KT FOR MOST OF LI...WHICH IS CONCERNING. HAVE MIXED DOWN 80
PERCENT OF THIS FOR THE FCST AND ISSUED A WIND ADVY FOR ALL OF
LI...INCLUDING BROOKLYN AND QUEENS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT
THE ADVY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NWD INTO CSTL CT IF DEEPER MIXING
OCCURS.

THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT SHIFT EWD THRU THE DAY...SO
ONLY KEPT THE WRN PORTION OF THE ADVY THRU THE MRNG. SUFFOLK
COUNTY FOR THE ENTIRE DAY.

THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS STILL POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT COMES THRU OVERNIGHT. THIS USHERS THE MORE
HUMID AIRMASS OFFSHORE. THE PRES GRAD STILL STAYS UP SO IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY THRU THE NGT. SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN BLW ADVY
CRITERIA WITH THE LOW APPROACHING LABRADOR. A FEW SHWRS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. THE NAM HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS SUGGESTION. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS FOR
THE PERIOD.

WITH THE COLD AIR LAGGING BEHIND AND WINDS KEEPING THE LLVLS
MIXED...LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABV
AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRANQUIL AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS ON TUES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN ITS
WAKE TUES NIGHT.

POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A COASTAL STORM WITH SNOW...RAIN
AND WIND TO IMPACT THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT...BUT SPREAD REMAINS
MODERATE IN TERMS OF EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST SENSITIVITY BASED ON SBU CSTAR ANALYSIS FOR THIS SYSTEM
LIES IN DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGH OVER THE EPAC OVER THE NEXT 48
HRS...AND RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM STRENGTH OF WEST COAST RIDGING AND
ULTIMATELY STRENGTH OF EAST COAST TROUGHING FOR MIDWEEK.
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE MODEL ANALYSIS REVEAL MID/UPPER LEVEL MODEL
FIELDS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS INITIALLY WITH
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND PAC ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEP CENTRAL US TROUGHING...WITH THIS ENERGY THEN SWINGING UP THE
COAST WED AND INTERACTING WITH YET ANOTHER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IT IS
WITH THIS SECOND INTERACTION...AFTER 48 HRS...THAT MODELS DIVERGE
ENOUGH TO AFFECT STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE PHASED SHORTWAVE
ENERGIES AS THEY PIVOT THROUGH THE NE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. THIS IS
RESULTING IN MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COASTAL LOW...BUT
MAINLY TRACK DIFFERENCES. THE RANGE OF OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ON
TRACK OF COASTAL LOW ARE...THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUING TO TREND WEST
AND TRACKING ACROSS LI WED NIGHT...TO THE 12Z NAM/CMC TRENDING WEST
AND PROJECTING WELL EAST OF BENCHMARK...AND 12Z GFS CONSISTENTLY
NEAR THE 40/70 LAT/LON.

WITH THIS SPREAD HAVE CONTINUED TO PLAY A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TRACK
BETWEEN CMC/GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH WOULD TRACK LOW
PRESSURE NEAR TO JUST INSIDE THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK WED NIGHT.
WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY COLD AIRMASS TO START...THIS TRACK WOULD
BRING MAINLY RAIN TO LI/SE CT...RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND
SW CT...AND MAINLY SNOW WELL N&W OF NYC...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WED
NIGHT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACK
NORTH. THIS MESHES FAIRLY WELL WITH WPC...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SEEING WARNING LEVEL SNOW RELEGATED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE
NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY..AND SW CT...AND ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
POSSIBLE INTO NYC METRO AND COASTAL SW CT SUN NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE VALUES IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT BASED ON ABOVE
MENTIONED SPREAD. PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW WITH THIS DAY 4 EVENT FOR A
DETERMINISTIC STORM TOTAL SNOW FORECAST.

ZONAL FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
GENERALLY QUIET AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SEASONABLE. A WEAK ALBERTA
CLIPPER MAY PASS TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03-05Z TONIGHT. RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBY DEVELOPS
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. LIFR AT TIMES IN RAIN POSSIBLE 9-14Z. CANNOT
RULE OUT THUNDER AROUND THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF NYC METRO.

IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS.

LIGHT S WINDS INTO THE EVENING TURN TOWARD THE SE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS AT 2000FT RANGING FROM 50-65 KT.

SURFACE WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY 10-13Z. SPEEDS
INCREASE QUICKLY TO 15 TO 25KT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KT. A FEW COASTAL
GUSTS COULD REACH 40 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...BECOMING VFR. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY.
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
.FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE ERN OCEAN REMAIN IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE...SO MAINTAINED
THE SCA TIL 23Z.

STRONG PRES GRAD SETS UP LATE TNGT ALLOWING FOR SLY FLOW THRU MON
NGT. GALES DEVELOP LATE TNGT AND CONTINUE THRU MON. WINDS DIMINISH
LATE MON NGT FROM W TO E. THE GALE WAS EXTENDED FOR THE ERN
WATERS...AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE REMAINING WATERS BASED
ON THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYS.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A TIGHT WNW
GRADIENT...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY TUE NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSE IN.

SCA CONDITIONS THEN LIKELY WED AFT THRU THU AS A COASTAL STORM
AFFECTS THE WATERS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MARGINAL GALE CONDS ON THE
EASTERN WATERS WED NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH
TO THE REGION. SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY
DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELLS AND TIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TNGT INTO MON. MINOR URBAN
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH IMPACTS LIKELY AROUND THE TIME
OF THE MRNG COMMUTE.

INCREASING POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION WED
INTO WED NIGHT. SOME PORTION OF THIS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS N&W OF THE NYC METRO.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOME OF THE MOST VULNERABLE SPOTS COULD TOUCH MINOR THRESHOLDS
DURING THE MON MRNG CYCLE. A STATEMENT IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
ATTM. AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED THIS EVE. SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION
IS POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SURF IN THE 5-8FT RANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ075-176>179.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ078>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JMC
CLIMATE...






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000
FXUS61 KBTV 232053
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM FRONTAL BAND OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN 09-12Z MONDAY.
WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS EVENING AS
GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE SAME TIME
HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-NE. OVERALL
EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH
2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT
THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS IN THE
GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO 0.60"...HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS IN THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 232053
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM FRONTAL BAND OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN 09-12Z MONDAY.
WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS EVENING AS
GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE SAME TIME
HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-NE. OVERALL
EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH
2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT
THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS IN THE
GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO 0.60"...HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS IN THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 232051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
351 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 232051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
351 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 232051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
351 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 232051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
351 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 232033
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDENSDAY...A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME
TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM FRONTAL BAND OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN 09-12Z MONDAY.
WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS EVENING AS
GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE SAME TIME
HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-NE. OVERALL
EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH
2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT
THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS IN THE
GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO 0.60"...HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS IN THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET.
WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMMINATING FROM LAKE
ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS 15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT
MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 232033
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDENSDAY...A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME
TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM FRONTAL BAND OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN 09-12Z MONDAY.
WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS EVENING AS
GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE SAME TIME
HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-NE. OVERALL
EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH
2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT
THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS IN THE
GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO 0.60"...HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS IN THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET.
WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMMINATING FROM LAKE
ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS 15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT
MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON



000
FXUS61 KALY 232025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
325 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 232025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
325 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER






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000
FXUS61 KBGM 232024
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
324 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S. A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHILLIER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
315 PM UPDATE... RESIDUAL LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
RGN BY 21-23Z...WITH SOME CLEARING PUSHING IN FROM PA FOR THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE HRS.

THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...THOUGH...AS A WARM FRNTL BNDRY AND AREA OF
STEADY RAINFALL ARE NORTHBOUND FROM THE SERN/MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE FA FROM S TO N...GENERALLY IN THE
02-06Z PD. ALTHOUGH FORCED ASCENT IS FAIRLY STG OVERNIGHT...THE
OVERALL SYSTEM IS FAST MOVG...AND THUS MAX RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE
KEPT MOSTLY IN THE 0.50.75" RANGE...MAINLY FROM ABT I-81 EWD.

STG SRLY FLOW AND LOW-LVL WAA WILL RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL TEMP
TREND ONCE AGN...WITH RISING TEMPS FORESEEN AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
325 PM UPDATE... WE STILL EXPECT THAT CNY/NE PA WILL BREAK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR MON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS THAT COULD
APPROACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME PLACES (WELL INTO THE 60S).
ALTHOUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN-FREE
...ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...GIVEN A FAIRLY MOIST
AMS...AND THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRNT LATE IN THE DAY.

THE JUST REFERRED TO COLD FRNT SHOULD PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE
CWA MON EVE...ACCOMPANIED BY SCTD SHWRS. A CAA REGIME WILL THEN BE
WITH US FROM LATE MON NGT...THROUGH TUE...AND TUE NGT.

ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO CNY/NE
PA THIS PD...THE OPTIMUM WORD IS GRADUAL...AS THE MAIN CHUNK OF
ARCTIC AIR AT LEAST INITIALLY HANGS BACK IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND
SRN CANADA. ALSO...THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE SWLY THIS
PD...STEERING ANY LES (WHICH SHOULD NOT BE SIG ANYWAY...GIVEN MUCH
LESS LK GENERATED INSTAB...AND LWR INVERSION HGTS THAN WHAT WE
SAW LAST WEEK) MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF OUR FCST AREA. IN
FACT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE...BLYR TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK
AS THOUGH THEY COULD SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX.

BY LATER TUE NGT...ANY LINGERING LGT -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD BE ON THE
WANE...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE DRIES UP. WE`LL
THEN TURN OUR EYES TO THE S...TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH POTENTIAL
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS TWDS THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY PD. MORE ON THIS
BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK
TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST
INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL
DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR
FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP
EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS IS FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A STRONG LL
JET PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH NY AND PA.

SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGELY
VFR CONDITIONS. LLWS KICKS OFF BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z, WITH 1500-2000
FT WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO OVER 40 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN
4Z AND 8Z, ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR PUSH. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST WITH THE MOISTURE WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY AT BGM.

WARM SECTOR ARRIVES BY LATE MORNING ON MONDAY, THOUGH SKIES MAY
REMAIN OVERCAST. MODELS ARE NOT QUICK TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 232024
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
324 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S. A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHILLIER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
315 PM UPDATE... RESIDUAL LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
RGN BY 21-23Z...WITH SOME CLEARING PUSHING IN FROM PA FOR THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE HRS.

THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...THOUGH...AS A WARM FRNTL BNDRY AND AREA OF
STEADY RAINFALL ARE NORTHBOUND FROM THE SERN/MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE FA FROM S TO N...GENERALLY IN THE
02-06Z PD. ALTHOUGH FORCED ASCENT IS FAIRLY STG OVERNIGHT...THE
OVERALL SYSTEM IS FAST MOVG...AND THUS MAX RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE
KEPT MOSTLY IN THE 0.50.75" RANGE...MAINLY FROM ABT I-81 EWD.

STG SRLY FLOW AND LOW-LVL WAA WILL RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL TEMP
TREND ONCE AGN...WITH RISING TEMPS FORESEEN AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
325 PM UPDATE... WE STILL EXPECT THAT CNY/NE PA WILL BREAK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR MON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS THAT COULD
APPROACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME PLACES (WELL INTO THE 60S).
ALTHOUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN-FREE
...ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...GIVEN A FAIRLY MOIST
AMS...AND THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRNT LATE IN THE DAY.

THE JUST REFERRED TO COLD FRNT SHOULD PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE
CWA MON EVE...ACCOMPANIED BY SCTD SHWRS. A CAA REGIME WILL THEN BE
WITH US FROM LATE MON NGT...THROUGH TUE...AND TUE NGT.

ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO CNY/NE
PA THIS PD...THE OPTIMUM WORD IS GRADUAL...AS THE MAIN CHUNK OF
ARCTIC AIR AT LEAST INITIALLY HANGS BACK IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND
SRN CANADA. ALSO...THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE SWLY THIS
PD...STEERING ANY LES (WHICH SHOULD NOT BE SIG ANYWAY...GIVEN MUCH
LESS LK GENERATED INSTAB...AND LWR INVERSION HGTS THAN WHAT WE
SAW LAST WEEK) MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF OUR FCST AREA. IN
FACT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE...BLYR TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK
AS THOUGH THEY COULD SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX.

BY LATER TUE NGT...ANY LINGERING LGT -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD BE ON THE
WANE...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE DRIES UP. WE`LL
THEN TURN OUR EYES TO THE S...TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH POTENTIAL
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS TWDS THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY PD. MORE ON THIS
BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK
TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST
INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL
DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR
FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP
EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS IS FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A STRONG LL
JET PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH NY AND PA.

SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGELY
VFR CONDITIONS. LLWS KICKS OFF BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z, WITH 1500-2000
FT WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO OVER 40 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN
4Z AND 8Z, ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR PUSH. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST WITH THE MOISTURE WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY AT BGM.

WARM SECTOR ARRIVES BY LATE MORNING ON MONDAY, THOUGH SKIES MAY
REMAIN OVERCAST. MODELS ARE NOT QUICK TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP






000
FXUS61 KALY 232007
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 232007
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 231829
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO 100
MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO
FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR
HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND A GOOD BIT OF
THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...SO THE TREND IS BCMG
CLEARER. HAVE YET TO SEE GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE MAY ADD SOME
FURTHER CLARITY...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED AFTN...CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE S & E DURING THE EVNG. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL
TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT...AND WILL
USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL
WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR
ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR
CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE OVER TO RN FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 231829
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO 100
MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO
FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR
HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND A GOOD BIT OF
THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...SO THE TREND IS BCMG
CLEARER. HAVE YET TO SEE GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE MAY ADD SOME
FURTHER CLARITY...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED AFTN...CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE S & E DURING THE EVNG. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL
TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT...AND WILL
USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL
WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR
ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR
CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE OVER TO RN FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 231811
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1210 PM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
INTRODUCED JUST A FEW BREAKS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BASED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY. LINGERING
SHOWERS GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE MORNING HRS...SO JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50F FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SW AT
5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT
MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231811
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1210 PM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
INTRODUCED JUST A FEW BREAKS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BASED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY. LINGERING
SHOWERS GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE MORNING HRS...SO JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50F FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SW AT
5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT
MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231811
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1210 PM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
INTRODUCED JUST A FEW BREAKS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BASED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY. LINGERING
SHOWERS GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE MORNING HRS...SO JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50F FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SW AT
5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT
MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231811
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1210 PM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
INTRODUCED JUST A FEW BREAKS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BASED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY. LINGERING
SHOWERS GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE MORNING HRS...SO JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50F FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SW AT
5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT
MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 231808
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE 00UTC ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE
CONVECTION IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED
AFTN...TO 100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG
PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB.
ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND
A GOOD BIT OF THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE HAS NOT IMPROVED WITH THIS
RUN...AND REMAINS ABOUT WHAT IT WAS ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

HAVE YET TO SEE THE NEW 12UTC ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE
MAY ADD SOME CLARITY BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW W/HI CHC POPS TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED
AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE FAIR S BY EVNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL





000
FXUS61 KALY 231808
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE 00UTC ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE
CONVECTION IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED
AFTN...TO 100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG
PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB.
ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND
A GOOD BIT OF THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE HAS NOT IMPROVED WITH THIS
RUN...AND REMAINS ABOUT WHAT IT WAS ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

HAVE YET TO SEE THE NEW 12UTC ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE
MAY ADD SOME CLARITY BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW W/HI CHC POPS TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED
AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE FAIR S BY EVNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL




000
FXUS61 KOKX 231757
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1257 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PASSES ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY MORNING...TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPRINKLES/LGT SHWRS ACROSS UPSTATE NY CORRESPOND TO ENHANCED MID
LVL THETAE ON THE 12Z NAM. INCLUDED SCHC FOR A FEW SPRINKLES WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR THIS. BULK OF ANY MEASUREABLE RAIN SHOULD
BE MAINLY N OF THE CATSKILLS PER STLT...RADAR AND MODELS.

MIXED OUT TEMPS FROM H975 AND ADDED A FEW DEGREES THIS
AFTN...RAISING FCST HIGHS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. FULL MIXING BASED
ON THE 12Z SOUNDING WOULD YIELD LWR 60S...WHICH IS NOT ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION TIL SFC WINDS BACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO QUICKLY BUILD IN
BEHIND IT. WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AND PASSAGE OF A
60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECT MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY...RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE-850 HPA WARM FRONT.

THERE IS SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN ZONES...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES FORECAST TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2...ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THAT HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TO -SHRA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONTS LIFT TO THE NE. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF
THE AFD FOR DETAILS ON AMOUNTS AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

ALSO WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN ANY EMBEDDED
CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER EASTERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING - AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE 100
PERCENT RULED OUT. IT SHOULD END UP QUITE WINDY ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH.
ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THERE
OCCURRENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT THE LOWS TO OCCUR IN THE
EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 50S
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT MID-UPPER 40S FAR NW ORANGE COUNTY.

RECORD HIGHS QUITE POSSIBLY WILL BE SET ON MONDAY AT MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE REGION SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR ONCE
THERE. FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HIGHS
AROUND 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SEE AN ISOLD-SCT SHRA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. THEN CLEARING IN ITS WAKE.
FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SW FLOW ALOFT...AND AS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE ABSENT ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...IT SHOULD BE DRY.
FOR HIGHS USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT NOW THE
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY SUPPORTING THE GFS (THOUGH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FARTHER W). WITH THE GFS AND CMC TRENDING
STRONGER (AROUND 10 MB DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT) AND FARTHER
WEST...HAVE OPTED TO USE A ECMWF/GFS BLEND AS THERE IS INCREASING
EVIDENCE THAT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE TWO SEEMS THE MOST
REASONABLE.

UNTIL ALL THE KEY PLAYERS...INCLUDING ENERGY STILL OUT OVER THE
PACIFIC ARE RESOLVED...THE EXACT NATURE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE E
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN - SO
THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SOME DEGREE. FOR NOW THOUGH THE
FOLLOWING IS WHAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY - THAT A FAIRLY DECENT...BUT
NOT OVERLY STRONG LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE BLEND WOULD SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN COULD REACH LONG ISLAND
AND MAYBE FAR SE CT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN SPREAD NW FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW INLAND
BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN. AS THE LOW NEARS THE BENCHMARK
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD COME IN
BEHIND IT TO CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FROM NW TO SE...THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THIS IS UNCERTAIN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
THURSDAY MORNING...UNLESS THE DEFORMATION AXIS LINGERS OVER THE
AREA...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF. FOR THIS REASON JUST WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

THE ECMWF TAKEN BY ITSELF WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING
LEVEL SNOWS TO THE W/N OF NYC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FARTHER EAST. GIVEN
THIS...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE OF REACHING WARNING LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CWA...SO WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
HWO. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST...IF NOT ALL...ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THE IMPACT ON THE BULK
OF PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL SHOULD BE MINIMIZED.

ZONAL THEN SW FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO FRIDAY...THEN A
WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES TO THE N ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR CAPE COD. BASED ON THIS HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVER EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE CLIPPER ITSELF LIKELY PASSING TO FAR N TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION BY ITSELF UNTIL THE COASTAL LOW FORMS.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND GFS AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03-05Z TONIGHT. RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBY DEVELOPS
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. LIFR AT TIMES IN RAIN POSSIBLE 9-14Z. CANNOT
RULE OUT THUNDER AROUND THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF NYC METRO.

IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR ISOLATED SHOWERS.

LIGHT S/SW WINDS INTO THE EVENING TURN TOWARD THE SE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS AT 2000FT RANGING FROM 50-65 KT.

SURFACE WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY 10-13Z. SPEEDS
INCREASE QUICKLY TO 15 TO 20KT WITH GUSTS 20S TO AROUND 30 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...BECOMING VFR. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY.
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
.FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
RAN THE SCA ON THE ERN OCEAN TIL 23Z WITH SEAS STILL CLOSE TO 8 FT
OFF MONTAUK. WINDS PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
950MB LOW LEVEL JET OF 60-70KT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A GALE
WARNING FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE
LONG ISLAND BAYS LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCA FOR
THE OTHER WATERS DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS STILL
PROBABLE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER THAN THIS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT. LOOKS
LIKE BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL WATERS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THE NEXT STORM AFFECTS THE WATERS LATE WEDS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURS WITH A COASTAL STORM PASSING NEARBY THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
WEDS NIGHT. FOR NOW...SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GALES. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LOCALLY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT BEING TO
SLOW THE COMMUTE DUE TO WET ROADS.

THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OR MORE OF QPF TO FALL
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY ANY IMPACT...OTHER THAN TO NOTE
THAT SOME PORTION OF THIS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MORE THAN 1/2 INCH
OF QPF WOULD BE OVER LONG ISLAND AND S CT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ335-
     338.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 231748
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1248 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS MORNING THEN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE RAINY
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1215 PM UPDATE...THE AREA OF LGT PCPN HAS HELD TOGETHER A BIT
BETTER/LONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. THUS...WE`VE INCLUDED A
CHC OF SPRINKLES FROM ABT THE TWIN TIERS NWD THROUGH 18-20Z.

BEHIND THIS AREA OF CLDS/SPRINKLES...SOME CLEARING IS NOTED ON SAT
IMAGERY ACRS PA...AND WE THINK SKIES WILL BECOME AT LEAST PTLY
SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

THEREAFTER...CLDS WILL INCREASE AGN BY EARLY EVE...WITH RAIN
SETTING IN BY 03-06Z.

PREV DISC... 10 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE...SO JUST A FEW COSMETIC CHGS ARE NEEDED ATTM.

A WEAKENING AREA OF SHWRS/SPRINKLES CONTS TO LIFT NEWD LATE THIS
MRNG FROM WRN NY/NWRN PA...ASSOCD WITH A VERY WEAK S/WV EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BROAD SWLY FLOW PATN ALOFT. WE FEEL A FEW
SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA ARE PSBL IN THE NRN FINGER LKS THROUGH ABT
MIDDAY...BUT THAT`S ABT IT...WITH MUCH OF THE FA STAYING DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A BAND OF THICKER CLDS TIED TO THE ABV MENTIONED FEATURE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH OUR WRN/NRN ZNS THROUGH 16-18Z...BUT OTHWS BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD DVLP WITH TIME TDY. INSOLATION COMBINED WITH
925-850 MB WAA SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S-MID
50S.

EARLIER DISC... AT 415 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY EAST OF I81 WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS JUST RAIN SINCE
TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE LESS WEST AND LITTLE MORE EAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH T85 AROUND 10/12C WILL BRING
TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORDS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, LAKE PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THE TRAILING SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH FROPA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL END
BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST
OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TUE
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK
TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST
INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL
DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR
FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP
EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS IS FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A STRONG LL
JET PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH NY AND PA.

SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGELY
VFR CONDITIONS. LLWS KICKS OFF BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z, WITH 1500-2000
FT WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO OVER 40 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN
4Z AND 8Z, ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR PUSH. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST WITH THE MOISTURE WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY AT BGM.

WARM SECTOR ARRIVES BY LATE MORNING ON MONDAY, THOUGH SKIES MAY
REMAIN OVERCAST. MODELS ARE NOT QUICK TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 231748
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1248 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS MORNING THEN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE RAINY
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1215 PM UPDATE...THE AREA OF LGT PCPN HAS HELD TOGETHER A BIT
BETTER/LONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. THUS...WE`VE INCLUDED A
CHC OF SPRINKLES FROM ABT THE TWIN TIERS NWD THROUGH 18-20Z.

BEHIND THIS AREA OF CLDS/SPRINKLES...SOME CLEARING IS NOTED ON SAT
IMAGERY ACRS PA...AND WE THINK SKIES WILL BECOME AT LEAST PTLY
SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

THEREAFTER...CLDS WILL INCREASE AGN BY EARLY EVE...WITH RAIN
SETTING IN BY 03-06Z.

PREV DISC... 10 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE...SO JUST A FEW COSMETIC CHGS ARE NEEDED ATTM.

A WEAKENING AREA OF SHWRS/SPRINKLES CONTS TO LIFT NEWD LATE THIS
MRNG FROM WRN NY/NWRN PA...ASSOCD WITH A VERY WEAK S/WV EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BROAD SWLY FLOW PATN ALOFT. WE FEEL A FEW
SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA ARE PSBL IN THE NRN FINGER LKS THROUGH ABT
MIDDAY...BUT THAT`S ABT IT...WITH MUCH OF THE FA STAYING DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A BAND OF THICKER CLDS TIED TO THE ABV MENTIONED FEATURE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH OUR WRN/NRN ZNS THROUGH 16-18Z...BUT OTHWS BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD DVLP WITH TIME TDY. INSOLATION COMBINED WITH
925-850 MB WAA SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S-MID
50S.

EARLIER DISC... AT 415 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY EAST OF I81 WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS JUST RAIN SINCE
TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE LESS WEST AND LITTLE MORE EAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH T85 AROUND 10/12C WILL BRING
TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORDS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, LAKE PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THE TRAILING SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH FROPA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL END
BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST
OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TUE
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK
TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST
INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL
DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR
FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP
EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS IS FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A STRONG LL
JET PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH NY AND PA.

SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGELY
VFR CONDITIONS. LLWS KICKS OFF BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z, WITH 1500-2000
FT WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO OVER 40 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN
4Z AND 8Z, ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR PUSH. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST WITH THE MOISTURE WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY AT BGM.

WARM SECTOR ARRIVES BY LATE MORNING ON MONDAY, THOUGH SKIES MAY
REMAIN OVERCAST. MODELS ARE NOT QUICK TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 231748
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1248 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS MORNING THEN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE RAINY
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1215 PM UPDATE...THE AREA OF LGT PCPN HAS HELD TOGETHER A BIT
BETTER/LONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. THUS...WE`VE INCLUDED A
CHC OF SPRINKLES FROM ABT THE TWIN TIERS NWD THROUGH 18-20Z.

BEHIND THIS AREA OF CLDS/SPRINKLES...SOME CLEARING IS NOTED ON SAT
IMAGERY ACRS PA...AND WE THINK SKIES WILL BECOME AT LEAST PTLY
SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

THEREAFTER...CLDS WILL INCREASE AGN BY EARLY EVE...WITH RAIN
SETTING IN BY 03-06Z.

PREV DISC... 10 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE...SO JUST A FEW COSMETIC CHGS ARE NEEDED ATTM.

A WEAKENING AREA OF SHWRS/SPRINKLES CONTS TO LIFT NEWD LATE THIS
MRNG FROM WRN NY/NWRN PA...ASSOCD WITH A VERY WEAK S/WV EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BROAD SWLY FLOW PATN ALOFT. WE FEEL A FEW
SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA ARE PSBL IN THE NRN FINGER LKS THROUGH ABT
MIDDAY...BUT THAT`S ABT IT...WITH MUCH OF THE FA STAYING DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A BAND OF THICKER CLDS TIED TO THE ABV MENTIONED FEATURE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH OUR WRN/NRN ZNS THROUGH 16-18Z...BUT OTHWS BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD DVLP WITH TIME TDY. INSOLATION COMBINED WITH
925-850 MB WAA SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S-MID
50S.

EARLIER DISC... AT 415 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY EAST OF I81 WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS JUST RAIN SINCE
TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE LESS WEST AND LITTLE MORE EAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH T85 AROUND 10/12C WILL BRING
TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORDS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, LAKE PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THE TRAILING SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH FROPA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL END
BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST
OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TUE
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK
TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST
INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL
DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR
FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP
EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS IS FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A STRONG LL
JET PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH NY AND PA.

SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGELY
VFR CONDITIONS. LLWS KICKS OFF BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z, WITH 1500-2000
FT WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO OVER 40 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN
4Z AND 8Z, ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR PUSH. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST WITH THE MOISTURE WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY AT BGM.

WARM SECTOR ARRIVES BY LATE MORNING ON MONDAY, THOUGH SKIES MAY
REMAIN OVERCAST. MODELS ARE NOT QUICK TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 231748
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1248 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS MORNING THEN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE RAINY
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1215 PM UPDATE...THE AREA OF LGT PCPN HAS HELD TOGETHER A BIT
BETTER/LONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. THUS...WE`VE INCLUDED A
CHC OF SPRINKLES FROM ABT THE TWIN TIERS NWD THROUGH 18-20Z.

BEHIND THIS AREA OF CLDS/SPRINKLES...SOME CLEARING IS NOTED ON SAT
IMAGERY ACRS PA...AND WE THINK SKIES WILL BECOME AT LEAST PTLY
SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

THEREAFTER...CLDS WILL INCREASE AGN BY EARLY EVE...WITH RAIN
SETTING IN BY 03-06Z.

PREV DISC... 10 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE...SO JUST A FEW COSMETIC CHGS ARE NEEDED ATTM.

A WEAKENING AREA OF SHWRS/SPRINKLES CONTS TO LIFT NEWD LATE THIS
MRNG FROM WRN NY/NWRN PA...ASSOCD WITH A VERY WEAK S/WV EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BROAD SWLY FLOW PATN ALOFT. WE FEEL A FEW
SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA ARE PSBL IN THE NRN FINGER LKS THROUGH ABT
MIDDAY...BUT THAT`S ABT IT...WITH MUCH OF THE FA STAYING DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A BAND OF THICKER CLDS TIED TO THE ABV MENTIONED FEATURE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH OUR WRN/NRN ZNS THROUGH 16-18Z...BUT OTHWS BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD DVLP WITH TIME TDY. INSOLATION COMBINED WITH
925-850 MB WAA SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S-MID
50S.

EARLIER DISC... AT 415 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY EAST OF I81 WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS JUST RAIN SINCE
TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE LESS WEST AND LITTLE MORE EAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH T85 AROUND 10/12C WILL BRING
TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORDS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, LAKE PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THE TRAILING SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH FROPA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL END
BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST
OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TUE
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK
TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST
INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL
DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR
FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP
EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS IS FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A STRONG LL
JET PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH NY AND PA.

SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGELY
VFR CONDITIONS. LLWS KICKS OFF BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z, WITH 1500-2000
FT WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO OVER 40 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN
4Z AND 8Z, ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR PUSH. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST WITH THE MOISTURE WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY AT BGM.

WARM SECTOR ARRIVES BY LATE MORNING ON MONDAY, THOUGH SKIES MAY
REMAIN OVERCAST. MODELS ARE NOT QUICK TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP






000
FXUS61 KBUF 231745
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1245 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS WARMER
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN OHIO IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT WESTERN NY THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION
IN ADVANCE OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS ROUND OF RAINFALL IS ONLY EXPECTED
TO BRING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL AT BEST AS IT
CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE
CONTINUED ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL EXACERBATE MELTING
OF THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF THE
FINGER LAKES...THOUGH HAVE KNOCKED THE TEMP FORECAST BACK A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THAT WILL DOG THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY WARM
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARDS ON THE NOSE OF A 65KT LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SHIELD MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
ORIENTATION TO THE FLOW AND THE INVERSION SETTING UP NEAR THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE-TOP...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE OTHER FEATURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MOVES ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE HEAVIEST-HIT SNOWFALL AREAS TONIGHT
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER TO A HALF-INCH ACROSS THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA AND NEAR THE PA BORDER IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ON
THE TUG. NONETHELESS...THE SHEER VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE SNOWMELT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT FLOOD
THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD REMAIN: 1) FLOODING ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES MELTING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND 2) A
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

COMPLEX DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MONDAY JUST TO THE WEST OF NEW YORK. EARLY MONDAY A
SHARP WARM FRONT SHOULD BE SHIFTING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A DRY
SLOT AND STRENGTHENING JET ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH MOST LIKELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT COULD NOT QUITE RULE OUT A LOW CHANCE OF VERY PATCHY
SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOW 60S
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A 950MB INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT ANY STRONG WIND
GUSTS FROM A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN AND KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR WARMER SURFACE TEMPS IN CHECK UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

SNOW MELT AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...
THIS WARM UP WILL CONTINUE THE RAPID SNOWMELT ACROSS AREAS WHICH
RECEIVED LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW CORE
MEASUREMENTS FROM FRIDAY SHOWED THE SNOW PACK HAS AN AVERAGE OF 4-6
INCHES OF LIQUID LOCKED UP. SNOW MELT MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE
FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
MELT UNDER FORECASTED CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING
SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING
WITH FINER DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FLOOD WARNING AND HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW. RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY AT LEAST TO MINOR
STAGES SO RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BUFFALO CREEKS.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA MONDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS BUT THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE WITH COLD ADVECTION ALLOWING
WIND ENERGY FROM A NOW STRONGER 60-75KT LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT TO BEGIN
MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ERODE WITH
THE COLD ADVECTION AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE. A HIGH
WIND WATCH REMAINS FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK COUNTIES WHICH
TYPICALLY SEEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS WHEN STRONG CUTTER LOWS PASS TO THE
WEST. HAVE HELD OFF ON THE DECISION TO GO WITH A WARNING VERSES
STICKING WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS SHIFT BUT WOULD AT LEAST
EXPECT ALL COUNTIES TO SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS BEING THE COUNTIES UNDER THE
WATCH. CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS PERIOD INDICATE THAT SIMILAR PATTERNS
HAVE SHOWN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 50KTS WHICH WOULD
INCREASE CONFIDENCE HOWEVER EXACTLY WHICH COUNTIES IS STILL MORE
UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STRONG LOW.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE DOWN TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS MAY
CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED INTO PART OF TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
SLOW TO EXIT. 850MB TEMPS WILL STEADILY FALL BACK TO AROUND -10C BY
LATE TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LAKE-850 INSTABILITY.
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL RISE TO 8KFT AND A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS EAST OF THE LAKES BY LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MAY FALL INTO THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION THEN DOWN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH WEDNESDAY TO
CONTINUE CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE NOREASTER`
LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED CHANCES OF
LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VFR AS THE
SHOWERS END AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE
WATERS...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM
BUFFALO TO RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA
VALLEY AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALE WATCHES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELD
ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 TODAY...REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT
ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 40S THEN RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY.
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE
VERY EFFICIENT AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT...WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES
WITH AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THAT RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ019-085.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
         EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA/WOOD
MARINE...TMA/WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 231745
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1245 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS WARMER
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN OHIO IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT WESTERN NY THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION
IN ADVANCE OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS ROUND OF RAINFALL IS ONLY EXPECTED
TO BRING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL AT BEST AS IT
CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE
CONTINUED ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL EXACERBATE MELTING
OF THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF THE
FINGER LAKES...THOUGH HAVE KNOCKED THE TEMP FORECAST BACK A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THAT WILL DOG THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY WARM
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARDS ON THE NOSE OF A 65KT LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SHIELD MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
ORIENTATION TO THE FLOW AND THE INVERSION SETTING UP NEAR THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE-TOP...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE OTHER FEATURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MOVES ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE HEAVIEST-HIT SNOWFALL AREAS TONIGHT
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER TO A HALF-INCH ACROSS THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA AND NEAR THE PA BORDER IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ON
THE TUG. NONETHELESS...THE SHEER VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE SNOWMELT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT FLOOD
THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD REMAIN: 1) FLOODING ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES MELTING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND 2) A
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

COMPLEX DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MONDAY JUST TO THE WEST OF NEW YORK. EARLY MONDAY A
SHARP WARM FRONT SHOULD BE SHIFTING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A DRY
SLOT AND STRENGTHENING JET ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH MOST LIKELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT COULD NOT QUITE RULE OUT A LOW CHANCE OF VERY PATCHY
SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOW 60S
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A 950MB INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT ANY STRONG WIND
GUSTS FROM A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN AND KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR WARMER SURFACE TEMPS IN CHECK UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

SNOW MELT AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...
THIS WARM UP WILL CONTINUE THE RAPID SNOWMELT ACROSS AREAS WHICH
RECEIVED LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW CORE
MEASUREMENTS FROM FRIDAY SHOWED THE SNOW PACK HAS AN AVERAGE OF 4-6
INCHES OF LIQUID LOCKED UP. SNOW MELT MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE
FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
MELT UNDER FORECASTED CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING
SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING
WITH FINER DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FLOOD WARNING AND HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW. RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY AT LEAST TO MINOR
STAGES SO RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BUFFALO CREEKS.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA MONDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS BUT THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE WITH COLD ADVECTION ALLOWING
WIND ENERGY FROM A NOW STRONGER 60-75KT LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT TO BEGIN
MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ERODE WITH
THE COLD ADVECTION AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE. A HIGH
WIND WATCH REMAINS FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK COUNTIES WHICH
TYPICALLY SEEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS WHEN STRONG CUTTER LOWS PASS TO THE
WEST. HAVE HELD OFF ON THE DECISION TO GO WITH A WARNING VERSES
STICKING WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS SHIFT BUT WOULD AT LEAST
EXPECT ALL COUNTIES TO SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS BEING THE COUNTIES UNDER THE
WATCH. CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS PERIOD INDICATE THAT SIMILAR PATTERNS
HAVE SHOWN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 50KTS WHICH WOULD
INCREASE CONFIDENCE HOWEVER EXACTLY WHICH COUNTIES IS STILL MORE
UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STRONG LOW.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE DOWN TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS MAY
CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED INTO PART OF TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
SLOW TO EXIT. 850MB TEMPS WILL STEADILY FALL BACK TO AROUND -10C BY
LATE TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LAKE-850 INSTABILITY.
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL RISE TO 8KFT AND A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS EAST OF THE LAKES BY LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MAY FALL INTO THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION THEN DOWN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH WEDNESDAY TO
CONTINUE CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE NOREASTER`
LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED CHANCES OF
LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VFR AS THE
SHOWERS END AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE
WATERS...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM
BUFFALO TO RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA
VALLEY AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALE WATCHES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELD
ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 TODAY...REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT
ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 40S THEN RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY.
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE
VERY EFFICIENT AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT...WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES
WITH AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THAT RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ019-085.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
         EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA/WOOD
MARINE...TMA/WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH





000
FXUS61 KALY 231731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1231 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE 00UTC ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE
CONVECTION IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED
AFTN...TO 100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG
PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB.
ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND
A GOOD BIT OF THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE HAS NOT IMPROVED WITH THIS
RUN...AND REMAINS ABOUT WHAT IT WAS ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

HAVE YET TO SEE THE NEW 12UTC ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE
MAY ADD SOME CLARITY BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW W/HI CHC POPS TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED
AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE FAIR S BY EVNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 231731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1231 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE 00UTC ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE
CONVECTION IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED
AFTN...TO 100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG
PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB.
ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND
A GOOD BIT OF THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE HAS NOT IMPROVED WITH THIS
RUN...AND REMAINS ABOUT WHAT IT WAS ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

HAVE YET TO SEE THE NEW 12UTC ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE
MAY ADD SOME CLARITY BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW W/HI CHC POPS TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED
AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE FAIR S BY EVNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 231727
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1227 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE 00UTC ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE
CONVECTION IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED
AFTN...TO 100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG
PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB.
ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND
A GOOD BIT OF THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE HAS NOT IMPROVED WITH THIS
RUN...AND REMAINS ABOUT WHAT IT WAS ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

HAVE YET TO SEE THE NEW 12UTC ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE
MAY ADD SOME CLARITY BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW W/HI CHC POPS TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED
AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE FAIR S BY EVNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 231727
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1227 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE 00UTC ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE
CONVECTION IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED
AFTN...TO 100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG
PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB.
ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND
A GOOD BIT OF THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE HAS NOT IMPROVED WITH THIS
RUN...AND REMAINS ABOUT WHAT IT WAS ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

HAVE YET TO SEE THE NEW 12UTC ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE
MAY ADD SOME CLARITY BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW W/HI CHC POPS TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED
AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE FAIR S BY EVNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KBGM 231720
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1219 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS MORNING THEN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE RAINY
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1215 PM UPDATE...THE AREA OF LGT PCPN HAS HELD TOGETHER A BIT
BETTER/LONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. THUS...WE`VE INCLUDED A
CHC OF SPRINKLES FROM ABT THE TWIN TIERS NWD THROUGH 18-20Z.

BEHIND THIS AREA OF CLDS/SPRINKLES...SOME CLEARING IS NOTED ON SAT
IMAGERY ACRS PA...AND WE THINK SKIES WILL BECOME AT LEAST PTLY
SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

THEREAFTER...CLDS WILL INCREASE AGN BY EARLY EVE...WITH RAIN
SETTING IN BY 03-06Z.

PREV DISC... 10 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE...SO JUST A FEW COSMETIC CHGS ARE NEEDED ATTM.

A WEAKENING AREA OF SHWRS/SPRINKLES CONTS TO LIFT NEWD LATE THIS
MRNG FROM WRN NY/NWRN PA...ASSOCD WITH A VERY WEAK S/WV EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BROAD SWLY FLOW PATN ALOFT. WE FEEL A FEW
SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA ARE PSBL IN THE NRN FINGER LKS THROUGH ABT
MIDDAY...BUT THAT`S ABT IT...WITH MUCH OF THE FA STAYING DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A BAND OF THICKER CLDS TIED TO THE ABV MENTIONED FEATURE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH OUR WRN/NRN ZNS THROUGH 16-18Z...BUT OTHWS BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD DVLP WITH TIME TDY. INSOLATION COMBINED WITH
925-850 MB WAA SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S-MID
50S.

EARLIER DISC... AT 415 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY EAST OF I81 WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS JUST RAIN SINCE
TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE LESS WEST AND LITTLE MORE EAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH T85 AROUND 10/12C WILL BRING
TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORDS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, LAKE PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THE TRAILING SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH FROPA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL END
BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST
OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TUE
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WED-WED NIGHT...BUT MUCH HAS TO BE DETERMINED ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT THE ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE WAVE...IS STILL IN THE
POORLY-SAMPLED OPEN PACIFIC. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AS THE STREAK OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE OF OREGON...EXTENDING
WELL WESTWARD. AS THE WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA-NEVADA
LATER TODAY TO AROUND FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO MONDAY...BETTER SAMPLING
SHOULD HELP BRING MORE STABILITY TO MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH RIGHT
NOW EXHIBIT A LOT OF SPREAD.

00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK...YET HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST STABLE RUN-TO-RUN...AND IT IMPACTS A FAIR CHUNK OF
OUR AREA WITHIN ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IT FEATURES A SURFACE
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY...WHICH RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BETTER PHASING OCCURS /COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS/ BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND
WEAKER...BARELY SKIMMING BY...WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO
WEAKER AND EVEN FARTHER OUT TO SEA /BUT CLOSER TO OUR REGION THAN
IT HAS BEEN/. HOWEVER...GFS- CANADIAN HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT RUN-
TO- RUN. 18Z GFS FOR EXAMPLE WAS ACTUALLY DEEPER AND IMPACTING
MORE OF OUR AREA...BEFORE JOGGING EAST AGAIN WITH 00Z RUN. BOTH
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. ONE POINT OF AGREEMENT IN ALL MODELS...IS THAT IF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES US...925-850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY /IF NOT ALL/ SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.

00Z WPC GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-81. WHILE NOT USING IT VERBATIM...I HAVE ADJUSTED
TOWARDS ITS DIRECTION...RESPECTING STABILITY OF ECMWF AND THE
TREND OF GFS-CANADIAN /TO VARYING DEGREES/ TO ALSO BRING SYSTEM
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THUS PROSPECTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE GOING
UP FOR WED-WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY UP THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS. ANYONE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BECOME CLEARER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL REINFORCE POLAR AIR
AND MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHEASTERN
ONONDAGA INTO NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA.

MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN STATES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS IS FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A STRONG LL
JET PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH NY AND PA.

SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGELY
VFR CONDITIONS. LLWS KICKS OFF BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z, WITH 1500-2000
FT WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO OVER 40 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN
4Z AND 8Z, ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR PUSH. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST WITH THE MOISTURE WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY AT BGM.

WARM SECTOR ARRIVES BY LATE MORNING ON MONDAY, THOUGH SKIES MAY
REMAIN OVERCAST. MODELS ARE NOT QUICK TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/MDP
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBTV 231712
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1212 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1210 PM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
INTRODUCED JUST A FEW BREAKS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BASED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY. LINGERING SHOWERS
GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE MORNING HRS...SO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR PATCHY DRIZZLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR
MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 231712
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1212 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1210 PM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
INTRODUCED JUST A FEW BREAKS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BASED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY. LINGERING SHOWERS
GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE MORNING HRS...SO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR PATCHY DRIZZLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR
MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBGM 231709
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1209 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS MORNING THEN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE RAINY
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE...SO JUST A
FEW COSMETIC CHGS ARE NEEDED ATTM.

A WEAKENING AREA OF SHWRS/SPRINKLES CONTS TO LIFT NEWD LATE THIS
MRNG FROM WRN NY/NWRN PA...ASSOCD WITH A VERY WEAK S/WV EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BROAD SWLY FLOW PATN ALOFT. WE FEEL A FEW
SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA ARE PSBL IN THE NRN FINGER LKS THROUGH ABT
MIDDAY...BUT THAT`S ABT IT...WITH MUCH OF THE FA STAYING DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A BAND OF THICKER CLDS TIED TO THE ABV MENTIONED FEATURE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH OUR WRN/NRN ZNS THROUGH 16-18Z...BUT OTHWS BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD DVLP WITH TIME TDY. INSOLATION COMBINED WITH
925-850 MB WAA SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S-MID
50S.

PREV DISC... AT 415 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY EAST OF I81 WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS JUST RAIN SINCE
TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE LESS WEST AND LITTLE MORE EAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH T85 AROUND 10/12C WILL BRING
TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORDS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, LAKE PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THE TRAILING SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH FROPA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL END
BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST
OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TUE
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WED-WED NIGHT...BUT MUCH HAS TO BE DETERMINED ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT THE ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE WAVE...IS STILL IN THE
POORLY-SAMPLED OPEN PACIFIC. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AS THE STREAK OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE OF OREGON...EXTENDING
WELL WESTWARD. AS THE WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA-NEVADA
LATER TODAY TO AROUND FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO MONDAY...BETTER SAMPLING
SHOULD HELP BRING MORE STABILITY TO MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH RIGHT
NOW EXHIBIT A LOT OF SPREAD.

00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK...YET HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST STABLE RUN-TO-RUN...AND IT IMPACTS A FAIR CHUNK OF
OUR AREA WITHIN ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IT FEATURES A SURFACE
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY...WHICH RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BETTER PHASING OCCURS /COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS/ BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND
WEAKER...BARELY SKIMMING BY...WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO
WEAKER AND EVEN FARTHER OUT TO SEA /BUT CLOSER TO OUR REGION THAN
IT HAS BEEN/. HOWEVER...GFS- CANADIAN HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT RUN-
TO- RUN. 18Z GFS FOR EXAMPLE WAS ACTUALLY DEEPER AND IMPACTING
MORE OF OUR AREA...BEFORE JOGGING EAST AGAIN WITH 00Z RUN. BOTH
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. ONE POINT OF AGREEMENT IN ALL MODELS...IS THAT IF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES US...925-850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY /IF NOT ALL/ SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.

00Z WPC GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-81. WHILE NOT USING IT VERBATIM...I HAVE ADJUSTED
TOWARDS ITS DIRECTION...RESPECTING STABILITY OF ECMWF AND THE
TREND OF GFS-CANADIAN /TO VARYING DEGREES/ TO ALSO BRING SYSTEM
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THUS PROSPECTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE GOING
UP FOR WED-WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY UP THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS. ANYONE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BECOME CLEARER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL REINFORCE POLAR AIR
AND MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHEASTERN
ONONDAGA INTO NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA.

MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN STATES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS IS FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A STRONG LL
JET PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH NY AND PA.

SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGELY
VFR CONDITIONS. LLWS KICKS OFF BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z, WITH 1500-2000
FT WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO OVER 40 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN
4Z AND 8Z, ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR PUSH. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST WITH THE MOISTURE WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY AT BGM.

WARM SECTOR ARRIVES BY LATE MORNING ON MONDAY, THOUGH SKIES MAY
REMAIN OVERCAST. MODELS ARE NOT QUICK TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/MDP
AVIATION...DJP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 231709
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1209 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS MORNING THEN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE RAINY
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE...SO JUST A
FEW COSMETIC CHGS ARE NEEDED ATTM.

A WEAKENING AREA OF SHWRS/SPRINKLES CONTS TO LIFT NEWD LATE THIS
MRNG FROM WRN NY/NWRN PA...ASSOCD WITH A VERY WEAK S/WV EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BROAD SWLY FLOW PATN ALOFT. WE FEEL A FEW
SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA ARE PSBL IN THE NRN FINGER LKS THROUGH ABT
MIDDAY...BUT THAT`S ABT IT...WITH MUCH OF THE FA STAYING DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A BAND OF THICKER CLDS TIED TO THE ABV MENTIONED FEATURE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH OUR WRN/NRN ZNS THROUGH 16-18Z...BUT OTHWS BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD DVLP WITH TIME TDY. INSOLATION COMBINED WITH
925-850 MB WAA SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S-MID
50S.

PREV DISC... AT 415 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY EAST OF I81 WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS JUST RAIN SINCE
TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE LESS WEST AND LITTLE MORE EAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH T85 AROUND 10/12C WILL BRING
TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORDS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, LAKE PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THE TRAILING SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH FROPA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL END
BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST
OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TUE
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WED-WED NIGHT...BUT MUCH HAS TO BE DETERMINED ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT THE ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE WAVE...IS STILL IN THE
POORLY-SAMPLED OPEN PACIFIC. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AS THE STREAK OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE OF OREGON...EXTENDING
WELL WESTWARD. AS THE WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA-NEVADA
LATER TODAY TO AROUND FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO MONDAY...BETTER SAMPLING
SHOULD HELP BRING MORE STABILITY TO MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH RIGHT
NOW EXHIBIT A LOT OF SPREAD.

00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK...YET HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST STABLE RUN-TO-RUN...AND IT IMPACTS A FAIR CHUNK OF
OUR AREA WITHIN ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IT FEATURES A SURFACE
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY...WHICH RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BETTER PHASING OCCURS /COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS/ BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND
WEAKER...BARELY SKIMMING BY...WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO
WEAKER AND EVEN FARTHER OUT TO SEA /BUT CLOSER TO OUR REGION THAN
IT HAS BEEN/. HOWEVER...GFS- CANADIAN HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT RUN-
TO- RUN. 18Z GFS FOR EXAMPLE WAS ACTUALLY DEEPER AND IMPACTING
MORE OF OUR AREA...BEFORE JOGGING EAST AGAIN WITH 00Z RUN. BOTH
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. ONE POINT OF AGREEMENT IN ALL MODELS...IS THAT IF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES US...925-850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY /IF NOT ALL/ SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.

00Z WPC GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-81. WHILE NOT USING IT VERBATIM...I HAVE ADJUSTED
TOWARDS ITS DIRECTION...RESPECTING STABILITY OF ECMWF AND THE
TREND OF GFS-CANADIAN /TO VARYING DEGREES/ TO ALSO BRING SYSTEM
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THUS PROSPECTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE GOING
UP FOR WED-WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY UP THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS. ANYONE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BECOME CLEARER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL REINFORCE POLAR AIR
AND MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHEASTERN
ONONDAGA INTO NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA.

MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN STATES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS IS FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A STRONG LL
JET PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH NY AND PA.

SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGELY
VFR CONDITIONS. LLWS KICKS OFF BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z, WITH 1500-2000
FT WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO OVER 40 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN
4Z AND 8Z, ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR PUSH. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST WITH THE MOISTURE WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY AT BGM.

WARM SECTOR ARRIVES BY LATE MORNING ON MONDAY, THOUGH SKIES MAY
REMAIN OVERCAST. MODELS ARE NOT QUICK TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/MDP
AVIATION...DJP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 231709
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1209 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS MORNING THEN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE RAINY
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE...SO JUST A
FEW COSMETIC CHGS ARE NEEDED ATTM.

A WEAKENING AREA OF SHWRS/SPRINKLES CONTS TO LIFT NEWD LATE THIS
MRNG FROM WRN NY/NWRN PA...ASSOCD WITH A VERY WEAK S/WV EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BROAD SWLY FLOW PATN ALOFT. WE FEEL A FEW
SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA ARE PSBL IN THE NRN FINGER LKS THROUGH ABT
MIDDAY...BUT THAT`S ABT IT...WITH MUCH OF THE FA STAYING DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A BAND OF THICKER CLDS TIED TO THE ABV MENTIONED FEATURE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH OUR WRN/NRN ZNS THROUGH 16-18Z...BUT OTHWS BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD DVLP WITH TIME TDY. INSOLATION COMBINED WITH
925-850 MB WAA SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S-MID
50S.

PREV DISC... AT 415 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY EAST OF I81 WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS JUST RAIN SINCE
TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE LESS WEST AND LITTLE MORE EAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH T85 AROUND 10/12C WILL BRING
TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORDS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, LAKE PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THE TRAILING SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH FROPA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL END
BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST
OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TUE
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WED-WED NIGHT...BUT MUCH HAS TO BE DETERMINED ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT THE ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE WAVE...IS STILL IN THE
POORLY-SAMPLED OPEN PACIFIC. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AS THE STREAK OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE OF OREGON...EXTENDING
WELL WESTWARD. AS THE WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA-NEVADA
LATER TODAY TO AROUND FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO MONDAY...BETTER SAMPLING
SHOULD HELP BRING MORE STABILITY TO MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH RIGHT
NOW EXHIBIT A LOT OF SPREAD.

00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK...YET HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST STABLE RUN-TO-RUN...AND IT IMPACTS A FAIR CHUNK OF
OUR AREA WITHIN ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IT FEATURES A SURFACE
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY...WHICH RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BETTER PHASING OCCURS /COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS/ BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND
WEAKER...BARELY SKIMMING BY...WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO
WEAKER AND EVEN FARTHER OUT TO SEA /BUT CLOSER TO OUR REGION THAN
IT HAS BEEN/. HOWEVER...GFS- CANADIAN HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT RUN-
TO- RUN. 18Z GFS FOR EXAMPLE WAS ACTUALLY DEEPER AND IMPACTING
MORE OF OUR AREA...BEFORE JOGGING EAST AGAIN WITH 00Z RUN. BOTH
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. ONE POINT OF AGREEMENT IN ALL MODELS...IS THAT IF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES US...925-850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY /IF NOT ALL/ SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.

00Z WPC GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-81. WHILE NOT USING IT VERBATIM...I HAVE ADJUSTED
TOWARDS ITS DIRECTION...RESPECTING STABILITY OF ECMWF AND THE
TREND OF GFS-CANADIAN /TO VARYING DEGREES/ TO ALSO BRING SYSTEM
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THUS PROSPECTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE GOING
UP FOR WED-WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY UP THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS. ANYONE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BECOME CLEARER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL REINFORCE POLAR AIR
AND MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHEASTERN
ONONDAGA INTO NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA.

MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN STATES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS IS FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A STRONG LL
JET PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH NY AND PA.

SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGELY
VFR CONDITIONS. LLWS KICKS OFF BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z, WITH 1500-2000
FT WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO OVER 40 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN
4Z AND 8Z, ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR PUSH. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST WITH THE MOISTURE WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY AT BGM.

WARM SECTOR ARRIVES BY LATE MORNING ON MONDAY, THOUGH SKIES MAY
REMAIN OVERCAST. MODELS ARE NOT QUICK TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/MDP
AVIATION...DJP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 231709
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1209 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS MORNING THEN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE RAINY
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE...SO JUST A
FEW COSMETIC CHGS ARE NEEDED ATTM.

A WEAKENING AREA OF SHWRS/SPRINKLES CONTS TO LIFT NEWD LATE THIS
MRNG FROM WRN NY/NWRN PA...ASSOCD WITH A VERY WEAK S/WV EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BROAD SWLY FLOW PATN ALOFT. WE FEEL A FEW
SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA ARE PSBL IN THE NRN FINGER LKS THROUGH ABT
MIDDAY...BUT THAT`S ABT IT...WITH MUCH OF THE FA STAYING DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A BAND OF THICKER CLDS TIED TO THE ABV MENTIONED FEATURE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH OUR WRN/NRN ZNS THROUGH 16-18Z...BUT OTHWS BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD DVLP WITH TIME TDY. INSOLATION COMBINED WITH
925-850 MB WAA SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S-MID
50S.

PREV DISC... AT 415 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY EAST OF I81 WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS JUST RAIN SINCE
TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE LESS WEST AND LITTLE MORE EAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH T85 AROUND 10/12C WILL BRING
TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORDS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, LAKE PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THE TRAILING SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH FROPA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL END
BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST
OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TUE
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WED-WED NIGHT...BUT MUCH HAS TO BE DETERMINED ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT THE ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE WAVE...IS STILL IN THE
POORLY-SAMPLED OPEN PACIFIC. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AS THE STREAK OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE OF OREGON...EXTENDING
WELL WESTWARD. AS THE WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA-NEVADA
LATER TODAY TO AROUND FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO MONDAY...BETTER SAMPLING
SHOULD HELP BRING MORE STABILITY TO MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH RIGHT
NOW EXHIBIT A LOT OF SPREAD.

00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK...YET HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST STABLE RUN-TO-RUN...AND IT IMPACTS A FAIR CHUNK OF
OUR AREA WITHIN ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IT FEATURES A SURFACE
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY...WHICH RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BETTER PHASING OCCURS /COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS/ BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND
WEAKER...BARELY SKIMMING BY...WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO
WEAKER AND EVEN FARTHER OUT TO SEA /BUT CLOSER TO OUR REGION THAN
IT HAS BEEN/. HOWEVER...GFS- CANADIAN HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT RUN-
TO- RUN. 18Z GFS FOR EXAMPLE WAS ACTUALLY DEEPER AND IMPACTING
MORE OF OUR AREA...BEFORE JOGGING EAST AGAIN WITH 00Z RUN. BOTH
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. ONE POINT OF AGREEMENT IN ALL MODELS...IS THAT IF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES US...925-850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY /IF NOT ALL/ SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.

00Z WPC GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-81. WHILE NOT USING IT VERBATIM...I HAVE ADJUSTED
TOWARDS ITS DIRECTION...RESPECTING STABILITY OF ECMWF AND THE
TREND OF GFS-CANADIAN /TO VARYING DEGREES/ TO ALSO BRING SYSTEM
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THUS PROSPECTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE GOING
UP FOR WED-WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY UP THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS. ANYONE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BECOME CLEARER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL REINFORCE POLAR AIR
AND MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHEASTERN
ONONDAGA INTO NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA.

MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN STATES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS IS FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A STRONG LL
JET PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH NY AND PA.

SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGELY
VFR CONDITIONS. LLWS KICKS OFF BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z, WITH 1500-2000
FT WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO OVER 40 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN
4Z AND 8Z, ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR PUSH. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST WITH THE MOISTURE WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY AT BGM.

WARM SECTOR ARRIVES BY LATE MORNING ON MONDAY, THOUGH SKIES MAY
REMAIN OVERCAST. MODELS ARE NOT QUICK TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/MDP
AVIATION...DJP






000
FXUS61 KOKX 231635
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1135 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PASSES ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY MORNING...TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPRINKLES/LGT SHWRS ACROSS UPSTATE NY CORRESPOND TO ENHANCED MID
LVL THETAE ON THE 12Z NAM. INCLUDED SCHC FOR A FEW SPRINKLES WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR THIS. BULK OF ANY MEASUREABLE RAIN SHOULD
BE MAINLY N OF THE CATSKILLS PER STLT...RADAR AND MODELS.

MIXED OUT TEMPS FROM H975 AND ADDED A FEW DEGREES THIS
AFTN...RAISING FCST HIGHS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. FULL MIXING BASED
ON THE 12Z SOUNDING WOULD YIELD LWR 60S...WHICH IS NOT ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION TIL SFC WINDS BACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO QUICKLY BUILD IN
BEHIND IT. WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AND PASSAGE OF A
60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECT MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY...RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE-850 HPA WARM FRONT.

THERE IS SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN ZONES...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES FORECAST TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2...ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THAT HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TO -SHRA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONTS LIFT TO THE NE. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF
THE AFD FOR DETAILS ON AMOUNTS AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

ALSO WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN ANY EMBEDDED
CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER EASTERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING - AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE 100
PERCENT RULED OUT. IT SHOULD END UP QUITE WINDY ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH.
ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THERE
OCCURRENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT THE LOWS TO OCCUR IN THE
EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 50S
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT MID-UPPER 40S FAR NW ORANGE COUNTY.

RECORD HIGHS QUITE POSSIBLY WILL BE SET ON MONDAY AT MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE REGION SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR ONCE
THERE. FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HIGHS
AROUND 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SEE AN ISOLD-SCT SHRA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. THEN CLEARING IN ITS WAKE.
FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SW FLOW ALOFT...AND AS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE ABSENT ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...IT SHOULD BE DRY.
FOR HIGHS USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT NOW THE
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY SUPPORTING THE GFS (THOUGH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FARTHER W). WITH THE GFS AND CMC TRENDING
STRONGER (AROUND 10 MB DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT) AND FARTHER
WEST...HAVE OPTED TO USE A ECMWF/GFS BLEND AS THERE IS INCREASING
EVIDENCE THAT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE TWO SEEMS THE MOST
REASONABLE.

UNTIL ALL THE KEY PLAYERS...INCLUDING ENERGY STILL OUT OVER THE
PACIFIC ARE RESOLVED...THE EXACT NATURE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE E
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN - SO
THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SOME DEGREE. FOR NOW THOUGH THE
FOLLOWING IS WHAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY - THAT A FAIRLY DECENT...BUT
NOT OVERLY STRONG LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE BLEND WOULD SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN COULD REACH LONG ISLAND
AND MAYBE FAR SE CT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN SPREAD NW FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW INLAND
BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN. AS THE LOW NEARS THE BENCHMARK
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD COME IN
BEHIND IT TO CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FROM NW TO SE...THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THIS IS UNCERTAIN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
THURSDAY MORNING...UNLESS THE DEFORMATION AXIS LINGERS OVER THE
AREA...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF. FOR THIS REASON JUST WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

THE ECMWF TAKEN BY ITSELF WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING
LEVEL SNOWS TO THE W/N OF NYC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FARTHER EAST. GIVEN
THIS...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE OF REACHING WARNING LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CWA...SO WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
HWO. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST...IF NOT ALL...ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THE IMPACT ON THE BULK
OF PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL SHOULD BE MINIMIZED.

ZONAL THEN SW FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO FRIDAY...THEN A
WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES TO THE N ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR CAPE COD. BASED ON THIS HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVER EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE CLIPPER ITSELF LIKELY PASSING TO FAR N TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION BY ITSELF UNTIL THE COASTAL LOW FORMS.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND GFS AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03-05Z MONDAY. RAIN WITH IFR DEVELOPS SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KBDR/KGON MAY BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...ALL TERMINALS BACK TO THE SOUTH AT SOME
POINT BY MIDNIGHT AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS AT 2000FT RANGING FROM 50-65 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. MORNING SHRA. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT
WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
RAN THE SCA ON THE ERN OCEAN TIL 23Z WITH SEAS STILL CLOSE TO 8 FT
OFF MONTAUK. WINDS PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
950MB LOW LEVEL JET OF 60-70KT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A GALE
WARNING FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE
LONG ISLAND BAYS LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCA FOR
THE OTHER WATERS DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS STILL
PROBABLE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER THAN THIS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT. LOOKS
LIKE BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL WATERS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THE NEXT STORM AFFECTS THE WATERS LATE WEDS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURS WITH A COASTAL STORM PASSING NEARBY THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
WEDS NIGHT. FOR NOW...SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GALES. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LOCALLY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT BEING TO
SLOW THE COMMUTE DUE TO WET ROADS.

THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OR MORE OF QPF TO FALL
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY ANY IMPACT...OTHER THAN TO NOTE
THAT SOME PORTION OF THIS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MORE THAN 1/2 INCH
OF QPF WOULD BE OVER LONG ISLAND AND S CT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ335-
     338.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC/PW
MARINE...JMC/JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KOKX 231635
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1135 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PASSES ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY MORNING...TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPRINKLES/LGT SHWRS ACROSS UPSTATE NY CORRESPOND TO ENHANCED MID
LVL THETAE ON THE 12Z NAM. INCLUDED SCHC FOR A FEW SPRINKLES WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR THIS. BULK OF ANY MEASUREABLE RAIN SHOULD
BE MAINLY N OF THE CATSKILLS PER STLT...RADAR AND MODELS.

MIXED OUT TEMPS FROM H975 AND ADDED A FEW DEGREES THIS
AFTN...RAISING FCST HIGHS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. FULL MIXING BASED
ON THE 12Z SOUNDING WOULD YIELD LWR 60S...WHICH IS NOT ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION TIL SFC WINDS BACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO QUICKLY BUILD IN
BEHIND IT. WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AND PASSAGE OF A
60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECT MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY...RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE-850 HPA WARM FRONT.

THERE IS SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN ZONES...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES FORECAST TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2...ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THAT HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TO -SHRA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONTS LIFT TO THE NE. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF
THE AFD FOR DETAILS ON AMOUNTS AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

ALSO WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN ANY EMBEDDED
CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER EASTERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING - AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE 100
PERCENT RULED OUT. IT SHOULD END UP QUITE WINDY ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH.
ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THERE
OCCURRENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT THE LOWS TO OCCUR IN THE
EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 50S
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT MID-UPPER 40S FAR NW ORANGE COUNTY.

RECORD HIGHS QUITE POSSIBLY WILL BE SET ON MONDAY AT MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE REGION SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR ONCE
THERE. FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HIGHS
AROUND 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SEE AN ISOLD-SCT SHRA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. THEN CLEARING IN ITS WAKE.
FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SW FLOW ALOFT...AND AS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE ABSENT ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...IT SHOULD BE DRY.
FOR HIGHS USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT NOW THE
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY SUPPORTING THE GFS (THOUGH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FARTHER W). WITH THE GFS AND CMC TRENDING
STRONGER (AROUND 10 MB DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT) AND FARTHER
WEST...HAVE OPTED TO USE A ECMWF/GFS BLEND AS THERE IS INCREASING
EVIDENCE THAT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE TWO SEEMS THE MOST
REASONABLE.

UNTIL ALL THE KEY PLAYERS...INCLUDING ENERGY STILL OUT OVER THE
PACIFIC ARE RESOLVED...THE EXACT NATURE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE E
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN - SO
THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SOME DEGREE. FOR NOW THOUGH THE
FOLLOWING IS WHAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY - THAT A FAIRLY DECENT...BUT
NOT OVERLY STRONG LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE BLEND WOULD SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN COULD REACH LONG ISLAND
AND MAYBE FAR SE CT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN SPREAD NW FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW INLAND
BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN. AS THE LOW NEARS THE BENCHMARK
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD COME IN
BEHIND IT TO CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FROM NW TO SE...THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THIS IS UNCERTAIN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
THURSDAY MORNING...UNLESS THE DEFORMATION AXIS LINGERS OVER THE
AREA...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF. FOR THIS REASON JUST WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

THE ECMWF TAKEN BY ITSELF WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING
LEVEL SNOWS TO THE W/N OF NYC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FARTHER EAST. GIVEN
THIS...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE OF REACHING WARNING LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CWA...SO WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
HWO. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST...IF NOT ALL...ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THE IMPACT ON THE BULK
OF PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL SHOULD BE MINIMIZED.

ZONAL THEN SW FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO FRIDAY...THEN A
WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES TO THE N ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR CAPE COD. BASED ON THIS HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVER EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE CLIPPER ITSELF LIKELY PASSING TO FAR N TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION BY ITSELF UNTIL THE COASTAL LOW FORMS.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND GFS AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03-05Z MONDAY. RAIN WITH IFR DEVELOPS SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KBDR/KGON MAY BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...ALL TERMINALS BACK TO THE SOUTH AT SOME
POINT BY MIDNIGHT AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS AT 2000FT RANGING FROM 50-65 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. MORNING SHRA. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT
WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
RAN THE SCA ON THE ERN OCEAN TIL 23Z WITH SEAS STILL CLOSE TO 8 FT
OFF MONTAUK. WINDS PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
950MB LOW LEVEL JET OF 60-70KT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A GALE
WARNING FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE
LONG ISLAND BAYS LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCA FOR
THE OTHER WATERS DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS STILL
PROBABLE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER THAN THIS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT. LOOKS
LIKE BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL WATERS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THE NEXT STORM AFFECTS THE WATERS LATE WEDS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURS WITH A COASTAL STORM PASSING NEARBY THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
WEDS NIGHT. FOR NOW...SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GALES. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LOCALLY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT BEING TO
SLOW THE COMMUTE DUE TO WET ROADS.

THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OR MORE OF QPF TO FALL
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY ANY IMPACT...OTHER THAN TO NOTE
THAT SOME PORTION OF THIS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MORE THAN 1/2 INCH
OF QPF WOULD BE OVER LONG ISLAND AND S CT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ335-
     338.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC/PW
MARINE...JMC/JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KOKX 231635
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1135 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PASSES ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY MORNING...TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPRINKLES/LGT SHWRS ACROSS UPSTATE NY CORRESPOND TO ENHANCED MID
LVL THETAE ON THE 12Z NAM. INCLUDED SCHC FOR A FEW SPRINKLES WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR THIS. BULK OF ANY MEASUREABLE RAIN SHOULD
BE MAINLY N OF THE CATSKILLS PER STLT...RADAR AND MODELS.

MIXED OUT TEMPS FROM H975 AND ADDED A FEW DEGREES THIS
AFTN...RAISING FCST HIGHS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. FULL MIXING BASED
ON THE 12Z SOUNDING WOULD YIELD LWR 60S...WHICH IS NOT ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION TIL SFC WINDS BACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO QUICKLY BUILD IN
BEHIND IT. WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AND PASSAGE OF A
60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECT MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY...RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE-850 HPA WARM FRONT.

THERE IS SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN ZONES...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES FORECAST TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2...ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THAT HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TO -SHRA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONTS LIFT TO THE NE. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF
THE AFD FOR DETAILS ON AMOUNTS AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

ALSO WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN ANY EMBEDDED
CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER EASTERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING - AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE 100
PERCENT RULED OUT. IT SHOULD END UP QUITE WINDY ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH.
ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THERE
OCCURRENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT THE LOWS TO OCCUR IN THE
EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 50S
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT MID-UPPER 40S FAR NW ORANGE COUNTY.

RECORD HIGHS QUITE POSSIBLY WILL BE SET ON MONDAY AT MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE REGION SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR ONCE
THERE. FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HIGHS
AROUND 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SEE AN ISOLD-SCT SHRA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. THEN CLEARING IN ITS WAKE.
FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SW FLOW ALOFT...AND AS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE ABSENT ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...IT SHOULD BE DRY.
FOR HIGHS USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT NOW THE
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY SUPPORTING THE GFS (THOUGH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FARTHER W). WITH THE GFS AND CMC TRENDING
STRONGER (AROUND 10 MB DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT) AND FARTHER
WEST...HAVE OPTED TO USE A ECMWF/GFS BLEND AS THERE IS INCREASING
EVIDENCE THAT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE TWO SEEMS THE MOST
REASONABLE.

UNTIL ALL THE KEY PLAYERS...INCLUDING ENERGY STILL OUT OVER THE
PACIFIC ARE RESOLVED...THE EXACT NATURE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE E
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN - SO
THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SOME DEGREE. FOR NOW THOUGH THE
FOLLOWING IS WHAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY - THAT A FAIRLY DECENT...BUT
NOT OVERLY STRONG LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE BLEND WOULD SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN COULD REACH LONG ISLAND
AND MAYBE FAR SE CT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN SPREAD NW FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW INLAND
BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN. AS THE LOW NEARS THE BENCHMARK
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD COME IN
BEHIND IT TO CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FROM NW TO SE...THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THIS IS UNCERTAIN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
THURSDAY MORNING...UNLESS THE DEFORMATION AXIS LINGERS OVER THE
AREA...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF. FOR THIS REASON JUST WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

THE ECMWF TAKEN BY ITSELF WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING
LEVEL SNOWS TO THE W/N OF NYC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FARTHER EAST. GIVEN
THIS...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE OF REACHING WARNING LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CWA...SO WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
HWO. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST...IF NOT ALL...ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THE IMPACT ON THE BULK
OF PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL SHOULD BE MINIMIZED.

ZONAL THEN SW FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO FRIDAY...THEN A
WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES TO THE N ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR CAPE COD. BASED ON THIS HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVER EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE CLIPPER ITSELF LIKELY PASSING TO FAR N TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION BY ITSELF UNTIL THE COASTAL LOW FORMS.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND GFS AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03-05Z MONDAY. RAIN WITH IFR DEVELOPS SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KBDR/KGON MAY BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...ALL TERMINALS BACK TO THE SOUTH AT SOME
POINT BY MIDNIGHT AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS AT 2000FT RANGING FROM 50-65 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. MORNING SHRA. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT
WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
RAN THE SCA ON THE ERN OCEAN TIL 23Z WITH SEAS STILL CLOSE TO 8 FT
OFF MONTAUK. WINDS PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
950MB LOW LEVEL JET OF 60-70KT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A GALE
WARNING FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE
LONG ISLAND BAYS LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCA FOR
THE OTHER WATERS DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS STILL
PROBABLE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER THAN THIS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT. LOOKS
LIKE BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL WATERS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THE NEXT STORM AFFECTS THE WATERS LATE WEDS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURS WITH A COASTAL STORM PASSING NEARBY THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
WEDS NIGHT. FOR NOW...SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GALES. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LOCALLY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT BEING TO
SLOW THE COMMUTE DUE TO WET ROADS.

THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OR MORE OF QPF TO FALL
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY ANY IMPACT...OTHER THAN TO NOTE
THAT SOME PORTION OF THIS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MORE THAN 1/2 INCH
OF QPF WOULD BE OVER LONG ISLAND AND S CT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ335-
     338.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC/PW
MARINE...JMC/JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KOKX 231635
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1135 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PASSES ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY MORNING...TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPRINKLES/LGT SHWRS ACROSS UPSTATE NY CORRESPOND TO ENHANCED MID
LVL THETAE ON THE 12Z NAM. INCLUDED SCHC FOR A FEW SPRINKLES WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR THIS. BULK OF ANY MEASUREABLE RAIN SHOULD
BE MAINLY N OF THE CATSKILLS PER STLT...RADAR AND MODELS.

MIXED OUT TEMPS FROM H975 AND ADDED A FEW DEGREES THIS
AFTN...RAISING FCST HIGHS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. FULL MIXING BASED
ON THE 12Z SOUNDING WOULD YIELD LWR 60S...WHICH IS NOT ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION TIL SFC WINDS BACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO QUICKLY BUILD IN
BEHIND IT. WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AND PASSAGE OF A
60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECT MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY...RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE-850 HPA WARM FRONT.

THERE IS SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN ZONES...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES FORECAST TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2...ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THAT HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TO -SHRA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONTS LIFT TO THE NE. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF
THE AFD FOR DETAILS ON AMOUNTS AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

ALSO WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN ANY EMBEDDED
CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER EASTERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING - AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE 100
PERCENT RULED OUT. IT SHOULD END UP QUITE WINDY ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH.
ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THERE
OCCURRENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT THE LOWS TO OCCUR IN THE
EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 50S
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT MID-UPPER 40S FAR NW ORANGE COUNTY.

RECORD HIGHS QUITE POSSIBLY WILL BE SET ON MONDAY AT MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE REGION SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR ONCE
THERE. FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HIGHS
AROUND 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SEE AN ISOLD-SCT SHRA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. THEN CLEARING IN ITS WAKE.
FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SW FLOW ALOFT...AND AS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE ABSENT ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...IT SHOULD BE DRY.
FOR HIGHS USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT NOW THE
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY SUPPORTING THE GFS (THOUGH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FARTHER W). WITH THE GFS AND CMC TRENDING
STRONGER (AROUND 10 MB DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT) AND FARTHER
WEST...HAVE OPTED TO USE A ECMWF/GFS BLEND AS THERE IS INCREASING
EVIDENCE THAT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE TWO SEEMS THE MOST
REASONABLE.

UNTIL ALL THE KEY PLAYERS...INCLUDING ENERGY STILL OUT OVER THE
PACIFIC ARE RESOLVED...THE EXACT NATURE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE E
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN - SO
THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SOME DEGREE. FOR NOW THOUGH THE
FOLLOWING IS WHAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY - THAT A FAIRLY DECENT...BUT
NOT OVERLY STRONG LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE BLEND WOULD SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN COULD REACH LONG ISLAND
AND MAYBE FAR SE CT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN SPREAD NW FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW INLAND
BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN. AS THE LOW NEARS THE BENCHMARK
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD COME IN
BEHIND IT TO CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FROM NW TO SE...THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THIS IS UNCERTAIN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
THURSDAY MORNING...UNLESS THE DEFORMATION AXIS LINGERS OVER THE
AREA...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF. FOR THIS REASON JUST WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

THE ECMWF TAKEN BY ITSELF WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING
LEVEL SNOWS TO THE W/N OF NYC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FARTHER EAST. GIVEN
THIS...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE OF REACHING WARNING LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CWA...SO WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
HWO. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST...IF NOT ALL...ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THE IMPACT ON THE BULK
OF PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL SHOULD BE MINIMIZED.

ZONAL THEN SW FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO FRIDAY...THEN A
WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES TO THE N ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR CAPE COD. BASED ON THIS HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVER EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE CLIPPER ITSELF LIKELY PASSING TO FAR N TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION BY ITSELF UNTIL THE COASTAL LOW FORMS.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND GFS AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03-05Z MONDAY. RAIN WITH IFR DEVELOPS SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KBDR/KGON MAY BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...ALL TERMINALS BACK TO THE SOUTH AT SOME
POINT BY MIDNIGHT AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS AT 2000FT RANGING FROM 50-65 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. MORNING SHRA. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT
WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
RAN THE SCA ON THE ERN OCEAN TIL 23Z WITH SEAS STILL CLOSE TO 8 FT
OFF MONTAUK. WINDS PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
950MB LOW LEVEL JET OF 60-70KT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A GALE
WARNING FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE
LONG ISLAND BAYS LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCA FOR
THE OTHER WATERS DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS STILL
PROBABLE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER THAN THIS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT. LOOKS
LIKE BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL WATERS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THE NEXT STORM AFFECTS THE WATERS LATE WEDS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURS WITH A COASTAL STORM PASSING NEARBY THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
WEDS NIGHT. FOR NOW...SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GALES. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LOCALLY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT BEING TO
SLOW THE COMMUTE DUE TO WET ROADS.

THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OR MORE OF QPF TO FALL
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY ANY IMPACT...OTHER THAN TO NOTE
THAT SOME PORTION OF THIS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MORE THAN 1/2 INCH
OF QPF WOULD BE OVER LONG ISLAND AND S CT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ335-
     338.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC/PW
MARINE...JMC/JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KBTV 231534
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1034 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
REMAINING SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE PAST 1-2
HOURS...SO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR
PATCHY DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR MODERATING TREND
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 231534
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1034 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
REMAINING SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE PAST 1-2
HOURS...SO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR
PATCHY DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR MODERATING TREND
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBGM 231451
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
951 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS MORNING THEN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE RAINY
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE...SO JUST A
FEW COSMETIC CHGS ARE NEEDED ATTM.

A WEAKENING AREA OF SHWRS/SPRINKLES CONTS TO LIFT NEWD LATE THIS
MRNG FROM WRN NY/NWRN PA...ASSOCD WITH A VERY WEAK S/WV EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BROAD SWLY FLOW PATN ALOFT. WE FEEL A FEW
SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA ARE PSBL IN THE NRN FINGER LKS THROUGH ABT
MIDDAY...BUT THAT`S ABT IT...WITH MUCH OF THE FA STAYING DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A BAND OF THICKER CLDS TIED TO THE ABV MENTIONED FEATURE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH OUR WRN/NRN ZNS THROUGH 16-18Z...BUT OTHWS BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD DVLP WITH TIME TDY. INSOLATION COMBINED WITH
925-850 MB WAA SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S-MID
50S.

PREV DISC... AT 415 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY EAST OF I81 WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS JUST RAIN SINCE
TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE LESS WEST AND LITTLE MORE EAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH T85 AROUND 10/12C WILL BRING
TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORDS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, LAKE PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THE TRAILING SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH FROPA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL END
BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST
OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TUE
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WED-WED NIGHT...BUT MUCH HAS TO BE DETERMINED ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT THE ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE WAVE...IS STILL IN THE
POORLY-SAMPLED OPEN PACIFIC. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AS THE STREAK OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE OF OREGON...EXTENDING
WELL WESTWARD. AS THE WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA-NEVADA
LATER TODAY TO AROUND FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO MONDAY...BETTER SAMPLING
SHOULD HELP BRING MORE STABILITY TO MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH RIGHT
NOW EXHIBIT A LOT OF SPREAD.

00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK...YET HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST STABLE RUN-TO-RUN...AND IT IMPACTS A FAIR CHUNK OF
OUR AREA WITHIN ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IT FEATURES A SURFACE
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY...WHICH RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BETTER PHASING OCCURS /COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS/ BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND
WEAKER...BARELY SKIMMING BY...WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO
WEAKER AND EVEN FARTHER OUT TO SEA /BUT CLOSER TO OUR REGION THAN
IT HAS BEEN/. HOWEVER...GFS- CANADIAN HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT RUN-
TO- RUN. 18Z GFS FOR EXAMPLE WAS ACTUALLY DEEPER AND IMPACTING
MORE OF OUR AREA...BEFORE JOGGING EAST AGAIN WITH 00Z RUN. BOTH
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. ONE POINT OF AGREEMENT IN ALL MODELS...IS THAT IF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES US...925-850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY /IF NOT ALL/ SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.

00Z WPC GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-81. WHILE NOT USING IT VERBATIM...I HAVE ADJUSTED
TOWARDS ITS DIRECTION...RESPECTING STABILITY OF ECMWF AND THE
TREND OF GFS-CANADIAN /TO VARYING DEGREES/ TO ALSO BRING SYSTEM
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THUS PROSPECTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE GOING
UP FOR WED-WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY UP THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS. ANYONE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BECOME CLEARER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL REINFORCE POLAR AIR
AND MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHEASTERN
ONONDAGA INTO NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA.

MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN STATES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
OVERNIGHT LLWS IS GOING AWAY FOR 12Z AS FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY
SLACKENS. UNFORTUNATELY...ENHANCED JET FROM A STRONGLY FORCED WAVE
APPEARS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP LLWS TONIGHT. AS FOR CLOUDS...KAVP TO
REMAIN VFR...BUT REMAINDER OF TERMINALS HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END
VFR THIS MORNING...BECOMING ALL VFR THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY TONIGHT.
AS WAVE MOVES SW TO NE LATER TONIGHT...FUEL ALT REQ MVFR CIG AND
RAIN IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TERMINALS...BECOMING IFR CIG
KBGM-KITH. WINDS LIGHT SW /EXCEPT REMAINING ESE KRME/...BACKING SE
AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN/LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LLWS MON MORNING...THEN
SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/MDP
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 231451
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
951 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS MORNING THEN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE RAINY
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE...SO JUST A
FEW COSMETIC CHGS ARE NEEDED ATTM.

A WEAKENING AREA OF SHWRS/SPRINKLES CONTS TO LIFT NEWD LATE THIS
MRNG FROM WRN NY/NWRN PA...ASSOCD WITH A VERY WEAK S/WV EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BROAD SWLY FLOW PATN ALOFT. WE FEEL A FEW
SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA ARE PSBL IN THE NRN FINGER LKS THROUGH ABT
MIDDAY...BUT THAT`S ABT IT...WITH MUCH OF THE FA STAYING DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A BAND OF THICKER CLDS TIED TO THE ABV MENTIONED FEATURE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH OUR WRN/NRN ZNS THROUGH 16-18Z...BUT OTHWS BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD DVLP WITH TIME TDY. INSOLATION COMBINED WITH
925-850 MB WAA SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S-MID
50S.

PREV DISC... AT 415 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY EAST OF I81 WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS JUST RAIN SINCE
TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE LESS WEST AND LITTLE MORE EAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH T85 AROUND 10/12C WILL BRING
TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORDS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, LAKE PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THE TRAILING SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH FROPA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL END
BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST
OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TUE
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WED-WED NIGHT...BUT MUCH HAS TO BE DETERMINED ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT THE ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE WAVE...IS STILL IN THE
POORLY-SAMPLED OPEN PACIFIC. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AS THE STREAK OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE OF OREGON...EXTENDING
WELL WESTWARD. AS THE WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA-NEVADA
LATER TODAY TO AROUND FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO MONDAY...BETTER SAMPLING
SHOULD HELP BRING MORE STABILITY TO MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH RIGHT
NOW EXHIBIT A LOT OF SPREAD.

00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK...YET HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST STABLE RUN-TO-RUN...AND IT IMPACTS A FAIR CHUNK OF
OUR AREA WITHIN ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IT FEATURES A SURFACE
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY...WHICH RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BETTER PHASING OCCURS /COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS/ BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND
WEAKER...BARELY SKIMMING BY...WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO
WEAKER AND EVEN FARTHER OUT TO SEA /BUT CLOSER TO OUR REGION THAN
IT HAS BEEN/. HOWEVER...GFS- CANADIAN HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT RUN-
TO- RUN. 18Z GFS FOR EXAMPLE WAS ACTUALLY DEEPER AND IMPACTING
MORE OF OUR AREA...BEFORE JOGGING EAST AGAIN WITH 00Z RUN. BOTH
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. ONE POINT OF AGREEMENT IN ALL MODELS...IS THAT IF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES US...925-850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY /IF NOT ALL/ SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.

00Z WPC GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-81. WHILE NOT USING IT VERBATIM...I HAVE ADJUSTED
TOWARDS ITS DIRECTION...RESPECTING STABILITY OF ECMWF AND THE
TREND OF GFS-CANADIAN /TO VARYING DEGREES/ TO ALSO BRING SYSTEM
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THUS PROSPECTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE GOING
UP FOR WED-WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY UP THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS. ANYONE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BECOME CLEARER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL REINFORCE POLAR AIR
AND MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHEASTERN
ONONDAGA INTO NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA.

MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN STATES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
OVERNIGHT LLWS IS GOING AWAY FOR 12Z AS FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY
SLACKENS. UNFORTUNATELY...ENHANCED JET FROM A STRONGLY FORCED WAVE
APPEARS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP LLWS TONIGHT. AS FOR CLOUDS...KAVP TO
REMAIN VFR...BUT REMAINDER OF TERMINALS HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END
VFR THIS MORNING...BECOMING ALL VFR THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY TONIGHT.
AS WAVE MOVES SW TO NE LATER TONIGHT...FUEL ALT REQ MVFR CIG AND
RAIN IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TERMINALS...BECOMING IFR CIG
KBGM-KITH. WINDS LIGHT SW /EXCEPT REMAINING ESE KRME/...BACKING SE
AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN/LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LLWS MON MORNING...THEN
SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/MDP
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 231451
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
951 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS MORNING THEN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE RAINY
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE...SO JUST A
FEW COSMETIC CHGS ARE NEEDED ATTM.

A WEAKENING AREA OF SHWRS/SPRINKLES CONTS TO LIFT NEWD LATE THIS
MRNG FROM WRN NY/NWRN PA...ASSOCD WITH A VERY WEAK S/WV EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BROAD SWLY FLOW PATN ALOFT. WE FEEL A FEW
SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA ARE PSBL IN THE NRN FINGER LKS THROUGH ABT
MIDDAY...BUT THAT`S ABT IT...WITH MUCH OF THE FA STAYING DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A BAND OF THICKER CLDS TIED TO THE ABV MENTIONED FEATURE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH OUR WRN/NRN ZNS THROUGH 16-18Z...BUT OTHWS BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD DVLP WITH TIME TDY. INSOLATION COMBINED WITH
925-850 MB WAA SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S-MID
50S.

PREV DISC... AT 415 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY EAST OF I81 WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS JUST RAIN SINCE
TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE LESS WEST AND LITTLE MORE EAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH T85 AROUND 10/12C WILL BRING
TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORDS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, LAKE PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THE TRAILING SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH FROPA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL END
BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST
OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TUE
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WED-WED NIGHT...BUT MUCH HAS TO BE DETERMINED ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT THE ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE WAVE...IS STILL IN THE
POORLY-SAMPLED OPEN PACIFIC. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AS THE STREAK OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE OF OREGON...EXTENDING
WELL WESTWARD. AS THE WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA-NEVADA
LATER TODAY TO AROUND FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO MONDAY...BETTER SAMPLING
SHOULD HELP BRING MORE STABILITY TO MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH RIGHT
NOW EXHIBIT A LOT OF SPREAD.

00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK...YET HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST STABLE RUN-TO-RUN...AND IT IMPACTS A FAIR CHUNK OF
OUR AREA WITHIN ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IT FEATURES A SURFACE
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY...WHICH RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BETTER PHASING OCCURS /COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS/ BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND
WEAKER...BARELY SKIMMING BY...WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO
WEAKER AND EVEN FARTHER OUT TO SEA /BUT CLOSER TO OUR REGION THAN
IT HAS BEEN/. HOWEVER...GFS- CANADIAN HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT RUN-
TO- RUN. 18Z GFS FOR EXAMPLE WAS ACTUALLY DEEPER AND IMPACTING
MORE OF OUR AREA...BEFORE JOGGING EAST AGAIN WITH 00Z RUN. BOTH
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. ONE POINT OF AGREEMENT IN ALL MODELS...IS THAT IF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES US...925-850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY /IF NOT ALL/ SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.

00Z WPC GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-81. WHILE NOT USING IT VERBATIM...I HAVE ADJUSTED
TOWARDS ITS DIRECTION...RESPECTING STABILITY OF ECMWF AND THE
TREND OF GFS-CANADIAN /TO VARYING DEGREES/ TO ALSO BRING SYSTEM
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THUS PROSPECTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE GOING
UP FOR WED-WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY UP THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS. ANYONE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BECOME CLEARER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL REINFORCE POLAR AIR
AND MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHEASTERN
ONONDAGA INTO NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA.

MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN STATES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
OVERNIGHT LLWS IS GOING AWAY FOR 12Z AS FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY
SLACKENS. UNFORTUNATELY...ENHANCED JET FROM A STRONGLY FORCED WAVE
APPEARS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP LLWS TONIGHT. AS FOR CLOUDS...KAVP TO
REMAIN VFR...BUT REMAINDER OF TERMINALS HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END
VFR THIS MORNING...BECOMING ALL VFR THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY TONIGHT.
AS WAVE MOVES SW TO NE LATER TONIGHT...FUEL ALT REQ MVFR CIG AND
RAIN IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TERMINALS...BECOMING IFR CIG
KBGM-KITH. WINDS LIGHT SW /EXCEPT REMAINING ESE KRME/...BACKING SE
AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN/LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LLWS MON MORNING...THEN
SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/MDP
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 231451
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
951 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS MORNING THEN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE RAINY
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE...SO JUST A
FEW COSMETIC CHGS ARE NEEDED ATTM.

A WEAKENING AREA OF SHWRS/SPRINKLES CONTS TO LIFT NEWD LATE THIS
MRNG FROM WRN NY/NWRN PA...ASSOCD WITH A VERY WEAK S/WV EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BROAD SWLY FLOW PATN ALOFT. WE FEEL A FEW
SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA ARE PSBL IN THE NRN FINGER LKS THROUGH ABT
MIDDAY...BUT THAT`S ABT IT...WITH MUCH OF THE FA STAYING DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A BAND OF THICKER CLDS TIED TO THE ABV MENTIONED FEATURE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH OUR WRN/NRN ZNS THROUGH 16-18Z...BUT OTHWS BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD DVLP WITH TIME TDY. INSOLATION COMBINED WITH
925-850 MB WAA SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S-MID
50S.

PREV DISC... AT 415 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY EAST OF I81 WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS JUST RAIN SINCE
TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE LESS WEST AND LITTLE MORE EAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH T85 AROUND 10/12C WILL BRING
TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORDS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, LAKE PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THE TRAILING SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH FROPA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL END
BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST
OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TUE
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WED-WED NIGHT...BUT MUCH HAS TO BE DETERMINED ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT THE ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE WAVE...IS STILL IN THE
POORLY-SAMPLED OPEN PACIFIC. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AS THE STREAK OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE OF OREGON...EXTENDING
WELL WESTWARD. AS THE WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA-NEVADA
LATER TODAY TO AROUND FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO MONDAY...BETTER SAMPLING
SHOULD HELP BRING MORE STABILITY TO MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH RIGHT
NOW EXHIBIT A LOT OF SPREAD.

00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK...YET HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST STABLE RUN-TO-RUN...AND IT IMPACTS A FAIR CHUNK OF
OUR AREA WITHIN ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IT FEATURES A SURFACE
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY...WHICH RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BETTER PHASING OCCURS /COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS/ BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND
WEAKER...BARELY SKIMMING BY...WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO
WEAKER AND EVEN FARTHER OUT TO SEA /BUT CLOSER TO OUR REGION THAN
IT HAS BEEN/. HOWEVER...GFS- CANADIAN HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT RUN-
TO- RUN. 18Z GFS FOR EXAMPLE WAS ACTUALLY DEEPER AND IMPACTING
MORE OF OUR AREA...BEFORE JOGGING EAST AGAIN WITH 00Z RUN. BOTH
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. ONE POINT OF AGREEMENT IN ALL MODELS...IS THAT IF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES US...925-850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY /IF NOT ALL/ SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.

00Z WPC GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-81. WHILE NOT USING IT VERBATIM...I HAVE ADJUSTED
TOWARDS ITS DIRECTION...RESPECTING STABILITY OF ECMWF AND THE
TREND OF GFS-CANADIAN /TO VARYING DEGREES/ TO ALSO BRING SYSTEM
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THUS PROSPECTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE GOING
UP FOR WED-WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY UP THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS. ANYONE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BECOME CLEARER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL REINFORCE POLAR AIR
AND MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHEASTERN
ONONDAGA INTO NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA.

MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN STATES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
OVERNIGHT LLWS IS GOING AWAY FOR 12Z AS FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY
SLACKENS. UNFORTUNATELY...ENHANCED JET FROM A STRONGLY FORCED WAVE
APPEARS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP LLWS TONIGHT. AS FOR CLOUDS...KAVP TO
REMAIN VFR...BUT REMAINDER OF TERMINALS HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END
VFR THIS MORNING...BECOMING ALL VFR THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY TONIGHT.
AS WAVE MOVES SW TO NE LATER TONIGHT...FUEL ALT REQ MVFR CIG AND
RAIN IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TERMINALS...BECOMING IFR CIG
KBGM-KITH. WINDS LIGHT SW /EXCEPT REMAINING ESE KRME/...BACKING SE
AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN/LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LLWS MON MORNING...THEN
SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/MDP
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KOKX 231435
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
935 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PASSES ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY MORNING...TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED SCHC FOR SPRINKLES THIS MRNG BASED ON RADAR. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE.

OTHERWISE...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY. WILL
SEE DECREASING CLOUD COVER IN RESPONSE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WITH AREAS PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO QUICKLY BUILD IN
BEHIND IT. WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AND PASSAGE OF A
60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECT MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY...RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE-850 HPA WARM FRONT.

THERE IS SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN ZONES...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES FORECAST TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2...ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THAT HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TO -SHRA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONTS LIFT TO THE NE. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF
THE AFD FOR DETAILS ON AMOUNTS AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

ALSO WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN ANY EMBEDDED
CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER EASTERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING - AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE 100
PERCENT RULED OUT. IT SHOULD END UP QUITE WINDY ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH.
ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THERE
OCCURRENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT THE LOWS TO OCCUR IN THE
EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 50S
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT MID-UPPER 40S FAR NW ORANGE COUNTY.

RECORD HIGHS QUITE POSSIBLY WILL BE SET ON MONDAY AT MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE REGION SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR ONCE
THERE. FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HIGHS
AROUND 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SEE AN ISOLD-SCT SHRA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. THEN CLEARING IN ITS WAKE.
FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SW FLOW ALOFT...AND AS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE ABSENT ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...IT SHOULD BE DRY.
FOR HIGHS USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT NOW THE
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY SUPPORTING THE GFS (THOUGH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FARTHER W). WITH THE GFS AND CMC TRENDING
STRONGER (AROUND 10 MB DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT) AND FARTHER
WEST...HAVE OPTED TO USE A ECMWF/GFS BLEND AS THERE IS INCREASING
EVIDENCE THAT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE TWO SEEMS THE MOST
REASONABLE.

UNTIL ALL THE KEY PLAYERS...INCLUDING ENERGY STILL OUT OVER THE
PACIFIC ARE RESOLVED...THE EXACT NATURE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE E
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN - SO
THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SOME DEGREE. FOR NOW THOUGH THE
FOLLOWING IS WHAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY - THAT A FAIRLY DECENT...BUT
NOT OVERLY STRONG LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE BLEND WOULD SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN COULD REACH LONG ISLAND
AND MAYBE FAR SE CT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN SPREAD NW FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW INLAND
BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN. AS THE LOW NEARS THE BENCHMARK
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD COME IN
BEHIND IT TO CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FROM NW TO SE...THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THIS IS UNCERTAIN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
THURSDAY MORNING...UNLESS THE DEFORMATION AXIS LINGERS OVER THE
AREA...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF. FOR THIS REASON JUST WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

THE ECMWF TAKEN BY ITSELF WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING
LEVEL SNOWS TO THE W/N OF NYC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FARTHER EAST. GIVEN
THIS...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE OF REACHING WARNING LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CWA...SO WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
HWO. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST...IF NOT ALL...ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THE IMPACT ON THE BULK
OF PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL SHOULD BE MINIMIZED.

ZONAL THEN SW FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO FRIDAY...THEN A
WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES TO THE N ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR CAPE COD. BASED ON THIS HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVER EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE CLIPPER ITSELF LIKELY PASSING TO FAR N TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION BY ITSELF UNTIL THE COASTAL LOW FORMS.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND GFS AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03-05Z MONDAY. RAIN WITH IFR DEVELOPS SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KBDR/KGON MAY BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...ALL TERMINALS BACK TO THE SOUTH AT SOME
POINT BY MIDNIGHT AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS AT 2000FT RANGING FROM 50-65 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. MORNING SHRA. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT
WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
LET THE WRN OCEAN SCA EXPIRE. STILL APPEAR ON TRACK FOR SCA CONDITIONS
THOUGH MIDDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

SEAS MIGHT TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO PAST THE SCA END TIME TO FALL
BELOW 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SO SCA END TIMES MIGHT BE FURTHER
ADJUSTED LATER THIS MORNING.

A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD THEN FOLLOWS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PIVOTS THROUGH.

WINDS PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 950MB LOW
LEVEL JET OF 60-70KT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A GALE WARNING FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE LONG ISLAND
BAYS LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCA FOR THE OTHER
WATERS DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS STILL
PROBABLE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER THAN THIS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT. LOOKS
LIKE BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL WATERS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THE NEXT STORM AFFECTS THE WATERS LATE WEDS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURS WITH A COASTAL STORM PASSING NEARBY THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
WEDS NIGHT. FOR NOW...SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GALES. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LOCALLY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT BEING TO
SLOW THE COMMUTE DUE TO WET ROADS.

THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OR MORE OF QPF TO FALL
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY ANY IMPACT...OTHER THAN TO NOTE
THAT SOME PORTION OF THIS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MORE THAN 1/2 INCH
OF QPF WOULD BE OVER LONG ISLAND AND S CT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ335-
     338.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC/PW
MARINE...JMC/JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 231435
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
935 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PASSES ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY MORNING...TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED SCHC FOR SPRINKLES THIS MRNG BASED ON RADAR. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE.

OTHERWISE...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY. WILL
SEE DECREASING CLOUD COVER IN RESPONSE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WITH AREAS PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO QUICKLY BUILD IN
BEHIND IT. WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AND PASSAGE OF A
60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECT MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY...RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE-850 HPA WARM FRONT.

THERE IS SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN ZONES...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES FORECAST TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2...ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THAT HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TO -SHRA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONTS LIFT TO THE NE. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF
THE AFD FOR DETAILS ON AMOUNTS AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

ALSO WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN ANY EMBEDDED
CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER EASTERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING - AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE 100
PERCENT RULED OUT. IT SHOULD END UP QUITE WINDY ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH.
ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THERE
OCCURRENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT THE LOWS TO OCCUR IN THE
EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 50S
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT MID-UPPER 40S FAR NW ORANGE COUNTY.

RECORD HIGHS QUITE POSSIBLY WILL BE SET ON MONDAY AT MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE REGION SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR ONCE
THERE. FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HIGHS
AROUND 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SEE AN ISOLD-SCT SHRA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. THEN CLEARING IN ITS WAKE.
FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SW FLOW ALOFT...AND AS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE ABSENT ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...IT SHOULD BE DRY.
FOR HIGHS USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT NOW THE
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY SUPPORTING THE GFS (THOUGH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FARTHER W). WITH THE GFS AND CMC TRENDING
STRONGER (AROUND 10 MB DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT) AND FARTHER
WEST...HAVE OPTED TO USE A ECMWF/GFS BLEND AS THERE IS INCREASING
EVIDENCE THAT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE TWO SEEMS THE MOST
REASONABLE.

UNTIL ALL THE KEY PLAYERS...INCLUDING ENERGY STILL OUT OVER THE
PACIFIC ARE RESOLVED...THE EXACT NATURE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE E
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN - SO
THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SOME DEGREE. FOR NOW THOUGH THE
FOLLOWING IS WHAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY - THAT A FAIRLY DECENT...BUT
NOT OVERLY STRONG LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE BLEND WOULD SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN COULD REACH LONG ISLAND
AND MAYBE FAR SE CT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN SPREAD NW FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW INLAND
BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN. AS THE LOW NEARS THE BENCHMARK
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD COME IN
BEHIND IT TO CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FROM NW TO SE...THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THIS IS UNCERTAIN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
THURSDAY MORNING...UNLESS THE DEFORMATION AXIS LINGERS OVER THE
AREA...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF. FOR THIS REASON JUST WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

THE ECMWF TAKEN BY ITSELF WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING
LEVEL SNOWS TO THE W/N OF NYC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FARTHER EAST. GIVEN
THIS...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE OF REACHING WARNING LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CWA...SO WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
HWO. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST...IF NOT ALL...ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THE IMPACT ON THE BULK
OF PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL SHOULD BE MINIMIZED.

ZONAL THEN SW FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO FRIDAY...THEN A
WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES TO THE N ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR CAPE COD. BASED ON THIS HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVER EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE CLIPPER ITSELF LIKELY PASSING TO FAR N TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION BY ITSELF UNTIL THE COASTAL LOW FORMS.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND GFS AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03-05Z MONDAY. RAIN WITH IFR DEVELOPS SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KBDR/KGON MAY BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...ALL TERMINALS BACK TO THE SOUTH AT SOME
POINT BY MIDNIGHT AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS AT 2000FT RANGING FROM 50-65 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. MORNING SHRA. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT
WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
LET THE WRN OCEAN SCA EXPIRE. STILL APPEAR ON TRACK FOR SCA CONDITIONS
THOUGH MIDDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

SEAS MIGHT TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO PAST THE SCA END TIME TO FALL
BELOW 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SO SCA END TIMES MIGHT BE FURTHER
ADJUSTED LATER THIS MORNING.

A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD THEN FOLLOWS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PIVOTS THROUGH.

WINDS PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 950MB LOW
LEVEL JET OF 60-70KT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A GALE WARNING FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE LONG ISLAND
BAYS LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCA FOR THE OTHER
WATERS DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS STILL
PROBABLE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER THAN THIS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT. LOOKS
LIKE BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL WATERS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THE NEXT STORM AFFECTS THE WATERS LATE WEDS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURS WITH A COASTAL STORM PASSING NEARBY THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
WEDS NIGHT. FOR NOW...SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GALES. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LOCALLY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT BEING TO
SLOW THE COMMUTE DUE TO WET ROADS.

THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OR MORE OF QPF TO FALL
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY ANY IMPACT...OTHER THAN TO NOTE
THAT SOME PORTION OF THIS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MORE THAN 1/2 INCH
OF QPF WOULD BE OVER LONG ISLAND AND S CT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ335-
     338.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC/PW
MARINE...JMC/JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 231435
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
935 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PASSES ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY MORNING...TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED SCHC FOR SPRINKLES THIS MRNG BASED ON RADAR. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE.

OTHERWISE...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY. WILL
SEE DECREASING CLOUD COVER IN RESPONSE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WITH AREAS PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO QUICKLY BUILD IN
BEHIND IT. WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AND PASSAGE OF A
60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECT MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY...RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE-850 HPA WARM FRONT.

THERE IS SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN ZONES...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES FORECAST TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2...ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THAT HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TO -SHRA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONTS LIFT TO THE NE. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF
THE AFD FOR DETAILS ON AMOUNTS AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

ALSO WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN ANY EMBEDDED
CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER EASTERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING - AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE 100
PERCENT RULED OUT. IT SHOULD END UP QUITE WINDY ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH.
ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THERE
OCCURRENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT THE LOWS TO OCCUR IN THE
EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 50S
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT MID-UPPER 40S FAR NW ORANGE COUNTY.

RECORD HIGHS QUITE POSSIBLY WILL BE SET ON MONDAY AT MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE REGION SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR ONCE
THERE. FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HIGHS
AROUND 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SEE AN ISOLD-SCT SHRA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. THEN CLEARING IN ITS WAKE.
FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SW FLOW ALOFT...AND AS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE ABSENT ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...IT SHOULD BE DRY.
FOR HIGHS USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT NOW THE
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY SUPPORTING THE GFS (THOUGH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FARTHER W). WITH THE GFS AND CMC TRENDING
STRONGER (AROUND 10 MB DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT) AND FARTHER
WEST...HAVE OPTED TO USE A ECMWF/GFS BLEND AS THERE IS INCREASING
EVIDENCE THAT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE TWO SEEMS THE MOST
REASONABLE.

UNTIL ALL THE KEY PLAYERS...INCLUDING ENERGY STILL OUT OVER THE
PACIFIC ARE RESOLVED...THE EXACT NATURE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE E
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN - SO
THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SOME DEGREE. FOR NOW THOUGH THE
FOLLOWING IS WHAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY - THAT A FAIRLY DECENT...BUT
NOT OVERLY STRONG LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE BLEND WOULD SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN COULD REACH LONG ISLAND
AND MAYBE FAR SE CT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN SPREAD NW FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW INLAND
BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN. AS THE LOW NEARS THE BENCHMARK
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD COME IN
BEHIND IT TO CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FROM NW TO SE...THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THIS IS UNCERTAIN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
THURSDAY MORNING...UNLESS THE DEFORMATION AXIS LINGERS OVER THE
AREA...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF. FOR THIS REASON JUST WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

THE ECMWF TAKEN BY ITSELF WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING
LEVEL SNOWS TO THE W/N OF NYC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FARTHER EAST. GIVEN
THIS...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE OF REACHING WARNING LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CWA...SO WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
HWO. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST...IF NOT ALL...ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THE IMPACT ON THE BULK
OF PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL SHOULD BE MINIMIZED.

ZONAL THEN SW FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO FRIDAY...THEN A
WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES TO THE N ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR CAPE COD. BASED ON THIS HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVER EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE CLIPPER ITSELF LIKELY PASSING TO FAR N TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION BY ITSELF UNTIL THE COASTAL LOW FORMS.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND GFS AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03-05Z MONDAY. RAIN WITH IFR DEVELOPS SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KBDR/KGON MAY BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...ALL TERMINALS BACK TO THE SOUTH AT SOME
POINT BY MIDNIGHT AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS AT 2000FT RANGING FROM 50-65 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. MORNING SHRA. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT
WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
LET THE WRN OCEAN SCA EXPIRE. STILL APPEAR ON TRACK FOR SCA CONDITIONS
THOUGH MIDDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

SEAS MIGHT TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO PAST THE SCA END TIME TO FALL
BELOW 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SO SCA END TIMES MIGHT BE FURTHER
ADJUSTED LATER THIS MORNING.

A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD THEN FOLLOWS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PIVOTS THROUGH.

WINDS PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 950MB LOW
LEVEL JET OF 60-70KT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A GALE WARNING FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE LONG ISLAND
BAYS LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCA FOR THE OTHER
WATERS DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS STILL
PROBABLE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER THAN THIS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT. LOOKS
LIKE BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL WATERS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THE NEXT STORM AFFECTS THE WATERS LATE WEDS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURS WITH A COASTAL STORM PASSING NEARBY THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
WEDS NIGHT. FOR NOW...SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GALES. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LOCALLY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT BEING TO
SLOW THE COMMUTE DUE TO WET ROADS.

THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OR MORE OF QPF TO FALL
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY ANY IMPACT...OTHER THAN TO NOTE
THAT SOME PORTION OF THIS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MORE THAN 1/2 INCH
OF QPF WOULD BE OVER LONG ISLAND AND S CT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ335-
     338.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC/PW
MARINE...JMC/JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 231435
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
935 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PASSES ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY MORNING...TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED SCHC FOR SPRINKLES THIS MRNG BASED ON RADAR. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE.

OTHERWISE...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY. WILL
SEE DECREASING CLOUD COVER IN RESPONSE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WITH AREAS PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO QUICKLY BUILD IN
BEHIND IT. WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AND PASSAGE OF A
60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECT MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY...RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE-850 HPA WARM FRONT.

THERE IS SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN ZONES...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES FORECAST TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2...ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THAT HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TO -SHRA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONTS LIFT TO THE NE. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF
THE AFD FOR DETAILS ON AMOUNTS AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

ALSO WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN ANY EMBEDDED
CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER EASTERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING - AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE 100
PERCENT RULED OUT. IT SHOULD END UP QUITE WINDY ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH.
ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THERE
OCCURRENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT THE LOWS TO OCCUR IN THE
EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 50S
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT MID-UPPER 40S FAR NW ORANGE COUNTY.

RECORD HIGHS QUITE POSSIBLY WILL BE SET ON MONDAY AT MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE REGION SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR ONCE
THERE. FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HIGHS
AROUND 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SEE AN ISOLD-SCT SHRA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. THEN CLEARING IN ITS WAKE.
FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SW FLOW ALOFT...AND AS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE ABSENT ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...IT SHOULD BE DRY.
FOR HIGHS USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT NOW THE
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY SUPPORTING THE GFS (THOUGH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FARTHER W). WITH THE GFS AND CMC TRENDING
STRONGER (AROUND 10 MB DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT) AND FARTHER
WEST...HAVE OPTED TO USE A ECMWF/GFS BLEND AS THERE IS INCREASING
EVIDENCE THAT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE TWO SEEMS THE MOST
REASONABLE.

UNTIL ALL THE KEY PLAYERS...INCLUDING ENERGY STILL OUT OVER THE
PACIFIC ARE RESOLVED...THE EXACT NATURE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE E
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN - SO
THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SOME DEGREE. FOR NOW THOUGH THE
FOLLOWING IS WHAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY - THAT A FAIRLY DECENT...BUT
NOT OVERLY STRONG LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE BLEND WOULD SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN COULD REACH LONG ISLAND
AND MAYBE FAR SE CT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN SPREAD NW FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW INLAND
BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN. AS THE LOW NEARS THE BENCHMARK
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD COME IN
BEHIND IT TO CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FROM NW TO SE...THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THIS IS UNCERTAIN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
THURSDAY MORNING...UNLESS THE DEFORMATION AXIS LINGERS OVER THE
AREA...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF. FOR THIS REASON JUST WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

THE ECMWF TAKEN BY ITSELF WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING
LEVEL SNOWS TO THE W/N OF NYC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FARTHER EAST. GIVEN
THIS...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE OF REACHING WARNING LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CWA...SO WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
HWO. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST...IF NOT ALL...ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THE IMPACT ON THE BULK
OF PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL SHOULD BE MINIMIZED.

ZONAL THEN SW FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO FRIDAY...THEN A
WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES TO THE N ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR CAPE COD. BASED ON THIS HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVER EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE CLIPPER ITSELF LIKELY PASSING TO FAR N TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION BY ITSELF UNTIL THE COASTAL LOW FORMS.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND GFS AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03-05Z MONDAY. RAIN WITH IFR DEVELOPS SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KBDR/KGON MAY BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...ALL TERMINALS BACK TO THE SOUTH AT SOME
POINT BY MIDNIGHT AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS AT 2000FT RANGING FROM 50-65 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. MORNING SHRA. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT
WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
LET THE WRN OCEAN SCA EXPIRE. STILL APPEAR ON TRACK FOR SCA CONDITIONS
THOUGH MIDDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

SEAS MIGHT TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO PAST THE SCA END TIME TO FALL
BELOW 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SO SCA END TIMES MIGHT BE FURTHER
ADJUSTED LATER THIS MORNING.

A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD THEN FOLLOWS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PIVOTS THROUGH.

WINDS PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 950MB LOW
LEVEL JET OF 60-70KT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A GALE WARNING FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE LONG ISLAND
BAYS LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCA FOR THE OTHER
WATERS DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS STILL
PROBABLE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER THAN THIS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT. LOOKS
LIKE BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL WATERS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THE NEXT STORM AFFECTS THE WATERS LATE WEDS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURS WITH A COASTAL STORM PASSING NEARBY THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
WEDS NIGHT. FOR NOW...SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GALES. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LOCALLY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT BEING TO
SLOW THE COMMUTE DUE TO WET ROADS.

THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OR MORE OF QPF TO FALL
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY ANY IMPACT...OTHER THAN TO NOTE
THAT SOME PORTION OF THIS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MORE THAN 1/2 INCH
OF QPF WOULD BE OVER LONG ISLAND AND S CT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ335-
     338.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC/PW
MARINE...JMC/JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KALY 231434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
934 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY
AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 231434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
934 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY
AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 231434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
934 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY
AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 231434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
934 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY
AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KOKX 231355
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
855 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PASSES ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY MORNING...TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED SCHC FOR SPRINKLES THIS MRNG BASED ON RADAR. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE.

OTHERWISE...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY. WILL
SEE DECREASING CLOUD COVER IN RESPONSE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WITH AREAS PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO QUICKLY BUILD IN
BEHIND IT. WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AND PASSAGE OF A
60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECT MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY...RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE-850 HPA WARM FRONT.

THERE IS SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN ZONES...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES FORECAST TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2...ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THAT HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TO -SHRA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONTS LIFT TO THE NE. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF
THE AFD FOR DETAILS ON AMOUNTS AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

ALSO WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN ANY EMBEDDED
CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER EASTERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING - AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE 100
PERCENT RULED OUT. IT SHOULD END UP QUITE WINDY ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH.
ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THERE
OCCURRENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT THE LOWS TO OCCUR IN THE
EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 50S
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT MID-UPPER 40S FAR NW ORANGE COUNTY.

RECORD HIGHS QUITE POSSIBLY WILL BE SET ON MONDAY AT MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE REGION SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR ONCE
THERE. FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HIGHS
AROUND 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SEE AN ISOLD-SCT SHRA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. THEN CLEARING IN ITS WAKE.
FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SW FLOW ALOFT...AND AS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE ABSENT ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...IT SHOULD BE DRY.
FOR HIGHS USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT NOW THE
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY SUPPORTING THE GFS (THOUGH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FARTHER W). WITH THE GFS AND CMC TRENDING
STRONGER (AROUND 10 MB DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT) AND FARTHER
WEST...HAVE OPTED TO USE A ECMWF/GFS BLEND AS THERE IS INCREASING
EVIDENCE THAT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE TWO SEEMS THE MOST
REASONABLE.

UNTIL ALL THE KEY PLAYERS...INCLUDING ENERGY STILL OUT OVER THE
PACIFIC ARE RESOLVED...THE EXACT NATURE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE E
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN - SO
THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SOME DEGREE. FOR NOW THOUGH THE
FOLLOWING IS WHAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY - THAT A FAIRLY DECENT...BUT
NOT OVERLY STRONG LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE BLEND WOULD SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN COULD REACH LONG ISLAND
AND MAYBE FAR SE CT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN SPREAD NW FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW INLAND
BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN. AS THE LOW NEARS THE BENCHMARK
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD COME IN
BEHIND IT TO CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FROM NW TO SE...THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THIS IS UNCERTAIN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
THURSDAY MORNING...UNLESS THE DEFORMATION AXIS LINGERS OVER THE
AREA...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF. FOR THIS REASON JUST WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

THE ECMWF TAKEN BY ITSELF WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING
LEVEL SNOWS TO THE W/N OF NYC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FARTHER EAST. GIVEN
THIS...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE OF REACHING WARNING LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CWA...SO WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
HWO. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST...IF NOT ALL...ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THE IMPACT ON THE BULK
OF PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL SHOULD BE MINIMIZED.

ZONAL THEN SW FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO FRIDAY...THEN A
WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES TO THE N ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR CAPE COD. BASED ON THIS HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVER EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE CLIPPER ITSELF LIKELY PASSING TO FAR N TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION BY ITSELF UNTIL THE COASTAL LOW FORMS.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND GFS AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03-05Z MONDAY. RAIN WITH IFR DEVELOPS SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KBDR/KGON MAY BACK WINDS MORE TO THE SOUTH
LATE THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...ALL TERMINALS BACK TO THE SOUTH AT
SOME POINT BY MIDNIGHT AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS AT 2000FT RANGING FROM 50-65 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. MORNING SHRA. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT
WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WEDS NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
LET THE WRN OCEAN SCA EXPIRE. STILL APPEAR ON TRACK FOR SCA CONDITIONS
THOUGH MIDDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

SEAS MIGHT TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO PAST THE SCA END TIME TO FALL
BELOW 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SO SCA END TIMES MIGHT BE FURTHER
ADJUSTED LATER THIS MORNING.

A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD THEN FOLLOWS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PIVOTS THROUGH.

WINDS PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 950MB LOW
LEVEL JET OF 60-70KT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A GALE WARNING FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE LONG ISLAND
BAYS LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCA FOR THE OTHER
WATERS DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS STILL
PROBABLE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER THAN THIS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT. LOOKS
LIKE BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL WATERS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THE NEXT STORM AFFECTS THE WATERS LATE WEDS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURS WITH A COASTAL STORM PASSING NEARBY THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
WEDS NIGHT. FOR NOW...SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GALES. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LOCALLY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT BEING TO
SLOW THE COMMUTE DUE TO WET ROADS.

THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OR MORE OF QPF TO FALL
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY ANY IMPACT...OTHER THAN TO NOTE
THAT SOME PORTION OF THIS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MORE THAN 1/2 INCH
OF QPF WOULD BE OVER LONG ISLAND AND S CT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ335-
     338.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ350-353.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KOKX 231355
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
855 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PASSES ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY MORNING...TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED SCHC FOR SPRINKLES THIS MRNG BASED ON RADAR. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE.

OTHERWISE...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY. WILL
SEE DECREASING CLOUD COVER IN RESPONSE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WITH AREAS PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO QUICKLY BUILD IN
BEHIND IT. WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AND PASSAGE OF A
60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECT MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY...RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE-850 HPA WARM FRONT.

THERE IS SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN ZONES...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES FORECAST TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2...ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THAT HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TO -SHRA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONTS LIFT TO THE NE. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF
THE AFD FOR DETAILS ON AMOUNTS AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

ALSO WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN ANY EMBEDDED
CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER EASTERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING - AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE 100
PERCENT RULED OUT. IT SHOULD END UP QUITE WINDY ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH.
ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THERE
OCCURRENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT THE LOWS TO OCCUR IN THE
EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 50S
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT MID-UPPER 40S FAR NW ORANGE COUNTY.

RECORD HIGHS QUITE POSSIBLY WILL BE SET ON MONDAY AT MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE REGION SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR ONCE
THERE. FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HIGHS
AROUND 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SEE AN ISOLD-SCT SHRA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. THEN CLEARING IN ITS WAKE.
FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SW FLOW ALOFT...AND AS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE ABSENT ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...IT SHOULD BE DRY.
FOR HIGHS USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT NOW THE
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY SUPPORTING THE GFS (THOUGH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FARTHER W). WITH THE GFS AND CMC TRENDING
STRONGER (AROUND 10 MB DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT) AND FARTHER
WEST...HAVE OPTED TO USE A ECMWF/GFS BLEND AS THERE IS INCREASING
EVIDENCE THAT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE TWO SEEMS THE MOST
REASONABLE.

UNTIL ALL THE KEY PLAYERS...INCLUDING ENERGY STILL OUT OVER THE
PACIFIC ARE RESOLVED...THE EXACT NATURE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE E
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN - SO
THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SOME DEGREE. FOR NOW THOUGH THE
FOLLOWING IS WHAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY - THAT A FAIRLY DECENT...BUT
NOT OVERLY STRONG LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE BLEND WOULD SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN COULD REACH LONG ISLAND
AND MAYBE FAR SE CT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN SPREAD NW FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW INLAND
BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN. AS THE LOW NEARS THE BENCHMARK
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD COME IN
BEHIND IT TO CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FROM NW TO SE...THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THIS IS UNCERTAIN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
THURSDAY MORNING...UNLESS THE DEFORMATION AXIS LINGERS OVER THE
AREA...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF. FOR THIS REASON JUST WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

THE ECMWF TAKEN BY ITSELF WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING
LEVEL SNOWS TO THE W/N OF NYC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FARTHER EAST. GIVEN
THIS...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE OF REACHING WARNING LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CWA...SO WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
HWO. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST...IF NOT ALL...ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THE IMPACT ON THE BULK
OF PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL SHOULD BE MINIMIZED.

ZONAL THEN SW FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO FRIDAY...THEN A
WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES TO THE N ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR CAPE COD. BASED ON THIS HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVER EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE CLIPPER ITSELF LIKELY PASSING TO FAR N TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION BY ITSELF UNTIL THE COASTAL LOW FORMS.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND GFS AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03-05Z MONDAY. RAIN WITH IFR DEVELOPS SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KBDR/KGON MAY BACK WINDS MORE TO THE SOUTH
LATE THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...ALL TERMINALS BACK TO THE SOUTH AT
SOME POINT BY MIDNIGHT AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS AT 2000FT RANGING FROM 50-65 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. MORNING SHRA. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT
WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WEDS NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
LET THE WRN OCEAN SCA EXPIRE. STILL APPEAR ON TRACK FOR SCA CONDITIONS
THOUGH MIDDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

SEAS MIGHT TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO PAST THE SCA END TIME TO FALL
BELOW 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SO SCA END TIMES MIGHT BE FURTHER
ADJUSTED LATER THIS MORNING.

A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD THEN FOLLOWS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PIVOTS THROUGH.

WINDS PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 950MB LOW
LEVEL JET OF 60-70KT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A GALE WARNING FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE LONG ISLAND
BAYS LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCA FOR THE OTHER
WATERS DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS STILL
PROBABLE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER THAN THIS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT. LOOKS
LIKE BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL WATERS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THE NEXT STORM AFFECTS THE WATERS LATE WEDS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURS WITH A COASTAL STORM PASSING NEARBY THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
WEDS NIGHT. FOR NOW...SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GALES. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LOCALLY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT BEING TO
SLOW THE COMMUTE DUE TO WET ROADS.

THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OR MORE OF QPF TO FALL
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY ANY IMPACT...OTHER THAN TO NOTE
THAT SOME PORTION OF THIS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MORE THAN 1/2 INCH
OF QPF WOULD BE OVER LONG ISLAND AND S CT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ335-
     338.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ350-353.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KBUF 231231
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
731 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS WARMER
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN OHIO IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT WESTERN NY THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION
IN ADVANCE OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS ROUND OF RAINFALL IS ONLY EXPECTED
TO BRING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL AT BEST AS IT
CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE
CONTINUED ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL EXACERBATE MELTING
OF THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF THE
FINGER LAKES...THOUGH HAVE KNOCKED THE TEMP FORECAST BACK A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THAT WILL DOG THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY WARM
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARDS ON THE NOSE OF A 65KT LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SHIELD MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
ORIENTATION TO THE FLOW AND THE INVERSION SETTING UP NEAR THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE-TOP...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE OTHER FEATURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MOVES ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE HEAVIEST-HIT SNOWFALL AREAS TONIGHT
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER TO A HALF-INCH ACROSS THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA AND NEAR THE PA BORDER IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ON
THE TUG. NONETHELESS...THE SHEER VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE SNOWMELT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT FLOOD
THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD REMAIN: 1) FLOODING ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES MELTING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND 2) A
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

COMPLEX DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MONDAY JUST TO THE WEST OF NEW YORK. EARLY MONDAY A
SHARP WARM FRONT SHOULD BE SHIFTING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A DRY
SLOT AND STRENGTHENING JET ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH MOST LIKELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT COULD NOT QUITE RULE OUT A LOW CHANCE OF VERY PATCHY
SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOW 60S
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A 950MB INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT ANY STRONG WIND
GUSTS FROM A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN AND KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR WARMER SURFACE TEMPS IN CHECK UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

SNOW MELT AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...
THIS WARM UP WILL CONTINUE THE RAPID SNOWMELT ACROSS AREAS WHICH
RECEIVED LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW CORE
MEASUREMENTS FROM FRIDAY SHOWED THE SNOW PACK HAS AN AVERAGE OF 4-6
INCHES OF LIQUID LOCKED UP. SNOW MELT MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE
FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
MELT UNDER FORECASTED CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING
SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING
WITH FINER DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FLOOD WARNING AND HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW. RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY AT LEAST TO MINOR
STAGES SO RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BUFFALO CREEKS.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA MONDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS BUT THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE WITH COLD ADVECTION ALLOWING
WIND ENERGY FROM A NOW STRONGER 60-75KT LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT TO BEGIN
MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ERODE WITH
THE COLD ADVECTION AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE. A HIGH
WIND WATCH REMAINS FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK COUNTIES WHICH
TYPICALLY SEEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS WHEN STRONG CUTTER LOWS PASS TO THE
WEST. HAVE HELD OFF ON THE DECISION TO GO WITH A WARNING VERSES
STICKING WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS SHIFT BUT WOULD AT LEAST
EXPECT ALL COUNTIES TO SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS BEING THE COUNTIES UNDER THE
WATCH. CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS PERIOD INDICATE THAT SIMILAR PATTERNS
HAVE SHOWN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 50KTS WHICH WOULD
INCREASE CONFIDENCE HOWEVER EXACTLY WHICH COUNTIES IS STILL MORE
UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STRONG LOW.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE DOWN TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS MAY
CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED INTO PART OF TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
SLOW TO EXIT. 850MB TEMPS WILL STEADILY FALL BACK TO AROUND -10C BY
LATE TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LAKE-850 INSTABILITY.
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL RISE TO 8KFT AND A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS EAST OF THE LAKES BY LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MAY FALL INTO THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION THEN DOWN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH WEDNESDAY TO
CONTINUE CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE NOREASTER`
LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED CHANCES OF
LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KART THIS MORNING...WHICH IS SHOWING
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AND REMAINS MVFR. EXPECT CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY IN SPITE OF AN AREA OF
WEAKENING SHOWERS CURRENTLY CROSSING INTO SW NY FROM NRN OH.
UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND
GIVEN MODEL TRENDS SUGGESTING THAT THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS THEY CROSS WNY BETWEEN 15-19Z...SEE NO NEED TO DEVIATE FROM
THE VFR FORECAST.

LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS RAIN WITH MAINLY MVFR/VFR CIGS.
SIGNIFICANT LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WHILE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ON THE LAKES THIS MORNING...THE RESPITE
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE LATER TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK
FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THESE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE
WATERS...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM
BUFFALO TO RIPLEY TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT
CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE
SWINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALE
WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELD
ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE NORTHERLY
WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW TRACKS UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 TODAY...REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT
ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 40S THEN RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY.
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE
VERY EFFICIENT AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT...WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES
WITH AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THAT RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ019-085.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
         EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 231231
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
731 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS WARMER
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN OHIO IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT WESTERN NY THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION
IN ADVANCE OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS ROUND OF RAINFALL IS ONLY EXPECTED
TO BRING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL AT BEST AS IT
CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE
CONTINUED ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL EXACERBATE MELTING
OF THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF THE
FINGER LAKES...THOUGH HAVE KNOCKED THE TEMP FORECAST BACK A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THAT WILL DOG THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY WARM
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARDS ON THE NOSE OF A 65KT LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SHIELD MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
ORIENTATION TO THE FLOW AND THE INVERSION SETTING UP NEAR THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE-TOP...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE OTHER FEATURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MOVES ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE HEAVIEST-HIT SNOWFALL AREAS TONIGHT
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER TO A HALF-INCH ACROSS THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA AND NEAR THE PA BORDER IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ON
THE TUG. NONETHELESS...THE SHEER VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE SNOWMELT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT FLOOD
THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD REMAIN: 1) FLOODING ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES MELTING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND 2) A
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

COMPLEX DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MONDAY JUST TO THE WEST OF NEW YORK. EARLY MONDAY A
SHARP WARM FRONT SHOULD BE SHIFTING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A DRY
SLOT AND STRENGTHENING JET ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH MOST LIKELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT COULD NOT QUITE RULE OUT A LOW CHANCE OF VERY PATCHY
SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOW 60S
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A 950MB INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT ANY STRONG WIND
GUSTS FROM A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN AND KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR WARMER SURFACE TEMPS IN CHECK UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

SNOW MELT AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...
THIS WARM UP WILL CONTINUE THE RAPID SNOWMELT ACROSS AREAS WHICH
RECEIVED LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW CORE
MEASUREMENTS FROM FRIDAY SHOWED THE SNOW PACK HAS AN AVERAGE OF 4-6
INCHES OF LIQUID LOCKED UP. SNOW MELT MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE
FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
MELT UNDER FORECASTED CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING
SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING
WITH FINER DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FLOOD WARNING AND HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW. RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY AT LEAST TO MINOR
STAGES SO RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BUFFALO CREEKS.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA MONDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS BUT THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE WITH COLD ADVECTION ALLOWING
WIND ENERGY FROM A NOW STRONGER 60-75KT LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT TO BEGIN
MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ERODE WITH
THE COLD ADVECTION AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE. A HIGH
WIND WATCH REMAINS FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK COUNTIES WHICH
TYPICALLY SEEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS WHEN STRONG CUTTER LOWS PASS TO THE
WEST. HAVE HELD OFF ON THE DECISION TO GO WITH A WARNING VERSES
STICKING WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS SHIFT BUT WOULD AT LEAST
EXPECT ALL COUNTIES TO SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS BEING THE COUNTIES UNDER THE
WATCH. CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS PERIOD INDICATE THAT SIMILAR PATTERNS
HAVE SHOWN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 50KTS WHICH WOULD
INCREASE CONFIDENCE HOWEVER EXACTLY WHICH COUNTIES IS STILL MORE
UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STRONG LOW.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE DOWN TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS MAY
CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED INTO PART OF TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
SLOW TO EXIT. 850MB TEMPS WILL STEADILY FALL BACK TO AROUND -10C BY
LATE TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LAKE-850 INSTABILITY.
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL RISE TO 8KFT AND A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS EAST OF THE LAKES BY LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MAY FALL INTO THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION THEN DOWN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH WEDNESDAY TO
CONTINUE CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE NOREASTER`
LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED CHANCES OF
LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KART THIS MORNING...WHICH IS SHOWING
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AND REMAINS MVFR. EXPECT CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY IN SPITE OF AN AREA OF
WEAKENING SHOWERS CURRENTLY CROSSING INTO SW NY FROM NRN OH.
UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND
GIVEN MODEL TRENDS SUGGESTING THAT THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS THEY CROSS WNY BETWEEN 15-19Z...SEE NO NEED TO DEVIATE FROM
THE VFR FORECAST.

LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS RAIN WITH MAINLY MVFR/VFR CIGS.
SIGNIFICANT LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WHILE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ON THE LAKES THIS MORNING...THE RESPITE
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE LATER TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK
FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THESE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE
WATERS...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM
BUFFALO TO RIPLEY TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT
CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE
SWINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALE
WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELD
ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE NORTHERLY
WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW TRACKS UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 TODAY...REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT
ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 40S THEN RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY.
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE
VERY EFFICIENT AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT...WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES
WITH AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THAT RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ019-085.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
         EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBGM 231148
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
648 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS MORNING THEN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE RAINY
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 415 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING PRIMARILY EAST OF I81
WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS JUST RAIN SINCE TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL
ABOVE FREEZING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE LESS WEST AND LITTLE MORE EAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH T85 AROUND 10/12C WILL BRING
TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORDS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, LAKE PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THE TRAILING SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH FROPA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL END
BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST
OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TUE
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WED-WED NIGHT...BUT MUCH HAS TO BE DETERMINED ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT THE ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE WAVE...IS STILL IN THE
POORLY-SAMPLED OPEN PACIFIC. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AS THE STREAK OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE OF OREGON...EXTENDING
WELL WESTWARD. AS THE WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA-NEVADA
LATER TODAY TO AROUND FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO MONDAY...BETTER SAMPLING
SHOULD HELP BRING MORE STABILITY TO MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH RIGHT
NOW EXHIBIT A LOT OF SPREAD.

00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK...YET HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST STABLE RUN-TO-RUN...AND IT IMPACTS A FAIR CHUNK OF
OUR AREA WITHIN ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IT FEATURES A SURFACE
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY...WHICH RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BETTER PHASING OCCURS /COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS/ BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND
WEAKER...BARELY SKIMMING BY...WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO
WEAKER AND EVEN FARTHER OUT TO SEA /BUT CLOSER TO OUR REGION THAN
IT HAS BEEN/. HOWEVER...GFS- CANADIAN HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT RUN-
TO- RUN. 18Z GFS FOR EXAMPLE WAS ACTUALLY DEEPER AND IMPACTING
MORE OF OUR AREA...BEFORE JOGGING EAST AGAIN WITH 00Z RUN. BOTH
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. ONE POINT OF AGREEMENT IN ALL MODELS...IS THAT IF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES US...925-850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY /IF NOT ALL/ SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.

00Z WPC GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-81. WHILE NOT USING IT VERBATIM...I HAVE ADJUSTED
TOWARDS ITS DIRECTION...RESPECTING STABILITY OF ECMWF AND THE
TREND OF GFS-CANADIAN /TO VARYING DEGREES/ TO ALSO BRING SYSTEM
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THUS PROSPECTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE GOING
UP FOR WED-WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY UP THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS. ANYONE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BECOME CLEARER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL REINFORCE POLAR AIR
AND MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHEASTERN
ONONDAGA INTO NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA.

MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN STATES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
OVERNIGHT LLWS IS GOING AWAY FOR 12Z AS FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY
SLACKENS. UNFORTUNATELY...ENHANCED JET FROM A STRONGLY FORCED WAVE
APPEARS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP LLWS TONIGHT. AS FOR CLOUDS...KAVP TO
REMAIN VFR...BUT REMAINDER OF TERMINALS HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END
VFR THIS MORNING...BECOMING ALL VFR THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY TONIGHT.
AS WAVE MOVES SW TO NE LATER TONIGHT...FUEL ALT REQ MVFR CIG AND
RAIN IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TERMINALS...BECOMING IFR CIG
KBGM-KITH. WINDS LIGHT SW /EXCEPT REMAINING ESE KRME/...BACKING SE
AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN/LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LLWS MON MORNING...THEN
SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/MDP
AVIATION...MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 231148
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
648 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS MORNING THEN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE RAINY
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 415 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING PRIMARILY EAST OF I81
WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS JUST RAIN SINCE TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL
ABOVE FREEZING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE LESS WEST AND LITTLE MORE EAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH T85 AROUND 10/12C WILL BRING
TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORDS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, LAKE PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THE TRAILING SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH FROPA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL END
BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST
OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TUE
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WED-WED NIGHT...BUT MUCH HAS TO BE DETERMINED ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT THE ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE WAVE...IS STILL IN THE
POORLY-SAMPLED OPEN PACIFIC. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AS THE STREAK OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE OF OREGON...EXTENDING
WELL WESTWARD. AS THE WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA-NEVADA
LATER TODAY TO AROUND FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO MONDAY...BETTER SAMPLING
SHOULD HELP BRING MORE STABILITY TO MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH RIGHT
NOW EXHIBIT A LOT OF SPREAD.

00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK...YET HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST STABLE RUN-TO-RUN...AND IT IMPACTS A FAIR CHUNK OF
OUR AREA WITHIN ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IT FEATURES A SURFACE
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY...WHICH RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BETTER PHASING OCCURS /COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS/ BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND
WEAKER...BARELY SKIMMING BY...WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO
WEAKER AND EVEN FARTHER OUT TO SEA /BUT CLOSER TO OUR REGION THAN
IT HAS BEEN/. HOWEVER...GFS- CANADIAN HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT RUN-
TO- RUN. 18Z GFS FOR EXAMPLE WAS ACTUALLY DEEPER AND IMPACTING
MORE OF OUR AREA...BEFORE JOGGING EAST AGAIN WITH 00Z RUN. BOTH
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. ONE POINT OF AGREEMENT IN ALL MODELS...IS THAT IF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES US...925-850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY /IF NOT ALL/ SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.

00Z WPC GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-81. WHILE NOT USING IT VERBATIM...I HAVE ADJUSTED
TOWARDS ITS DIRECTION...RESPECTING STABILITY OF ECMWF AND THE
TREND OF GFS-CANADIAN /TO VARYING DEGREES/ TO ALSO BRING SYSTEM
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THUS PROSPECTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE GOING
UP FOR WED-WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY UP THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS. ANYONE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BECOME CLEARER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL REINFORCE POLAR AIR
AND MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHEASTERN
ONONDAGA INTO NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA.

MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN STATES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
OVERNIGHT LLWS IS GOING AWAY FOR 12Z AS FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY
SLACKENS. UNFORTUNATELY...ENHANCED JET FROM A STRONGLY FORCED WAVE
APPEARS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP LLWS TONIGHT. AS FOR CLOUDS...KAVP TO
REMAIN VFR...BUT REMAINDER OF TERMINALS HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END
VFR THIS MORNING...BECOMING ALL VFR THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY TONIGHT.
AS WAVE MOVES SW TO NE LATER TONIGHT...FUEL ALT REQ MVFR CIG AND
RAIN IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TERMINALS...BECOMING IFR CIG
KBGM-KITH. WINDS LIGHT SW /EXCEPT REMAINING ESE KRME/...BACKING SE
AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN/LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LLWS MON MORNING...THEN
SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/MDP
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KOKX 231146
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
646 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PASSES ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY MORNING...TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

CURRENTLY SEE NO EVIDENCE IN THE OBSERVATIONS THAT SPOTTY
RELATIVELY WEAK RADAR RETURNS CLIPPING FAR N PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...ARE PRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING BASED ON
SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS. BASED ON THIS...AND THAT SUPPORTING
SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE EXITING TO THE EAST BY 12Z...HAVE GONE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM. EVEN IF A SPRINKLE DID
OCCUR...TEMPERATURES ABOVE ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL REMAIN SO.


OTHERWISE...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY. WILL
SEE DECREASING CLOUD COVER IN RESPONSE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WITH AREAS PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO QUICKLY BUILD IN
BEHIND IT. WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AND PASSAGE OF A
60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECT MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY...RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE-850 HPA WARM FRONT.

THERE IS SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN ZONES...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES FORECAST TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2...ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THAT HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TO -SHRA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONTS LIFT TO THE NE. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF
THE AFD FOR DETAILS ON AMOUNTS AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

ALSO WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN ANY EMBEDDED
CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER EASTERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING - AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE 100
PERCENT RULED OUT. IT SHOULD END UP QUITE WINDY ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH.
ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THERE
OCCURRENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT THE LOWS TO OCCUR IN THE
EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 50S
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT MID-UPPER 40S FAR NW ORANGE COUNTY.

RECORD HIGHS QUITE POSSIBLY WILL BE SET ON MONDAY AT MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE REGION SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR ONCE
THERE. FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HIGHS
AROUND 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SEE AN ISOLD-SCT SHRA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. THEN CLEARING IN ITS WAKE.
FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SW FLOW ALOFT...AND AS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE ABSENT ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...IT SHOULD BE DRY.
FOR HIGHS USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT NOW THE
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY SUPPORTING THE GFS (THOUGH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FARTHER W). WITH THE GFS AND CMC TRENDING
STRONGER (AROUND 10 MB DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT) AND FARTHER
WEST...HAVE OPTED TO USE A ECMWF/GFS BLEND AS THERE IS INCREASING
EVIDENCE THAT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE TWO SEEMS THE MOST
REASONABLE.

UNTIL ALL THE KEY PLAYERS...INCLUDING ENERGY STILL OUT OVER THE
PACIFIC ARE RESOLVED...THE EXACT NATURE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE E
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN - SO
THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SOME DEGREE. FOR NOW THOUGH THE
FOLLOWING IS WHAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY - THAT A FAIRLY DECENT...BUT
NOT OVERLY STRONG LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE BLEND WOULD SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN COULD REACH LONG ISLAND
AND MAYBE FAR SE CT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN SPREAD NW FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW INLAND
BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN. AS THE LOW NEARS THE BENCHMARK
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD COME IN
BEHIND IT TO CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FROM NW TO SE...THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THIS IS UNCERTAIN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
THURSDAY MORNING...UNLESS THE DEFORMATION AXIS LINGERS OVER THE
AREA...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF. FOR THIS REASON JUST WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

THE ECMWF TAKEN BY ITSELF WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING
LEVEL SNOWS TO THE W/N OF NYC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FARTHER EAST. GIVEN
THIS...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE OF REACHING WARNING LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CWA...SO WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
HWO. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST...IF NOT ALL...ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THE IMPACT ON THE BULK
OF PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL SHOULD BE MINIMIZED.

ZONAL THEN SW FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO FRIDAY...THEN A
WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES TO THE N ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR CAPE COD. BASED ON THIS HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVER EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE CLIPPER ITSELF LIKELY PASSING TO FAR N TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION BY ITSELF UNTIL THE COASTAL LOW FORMS.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND GFS AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03-05Z MONDAY. RAIN WITH IFR DEVELOPS SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KBDR/KGON MAY BACK WINDS MORE TO THE SOUTH
LATE THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...ALL TERMINALS BACK TO THE SOUTH AT
SOME POINT BY MIDNIGHT AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS AT 2000FT RANGING FROM 50-65 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. MORNING SHRA. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT
WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WEDS NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT 44097 REMAIN AT 7FT AND AT 44025 AT 8 FT...WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT AT 44065 AT 5 AM. THEREFORE WILL EXTEND THE SCA FOR ANZ-355
UNTIL 9AM. LATEST OBSERVATIONS THOUGH INDICATE WIND GUSTS ON THE
NON- OCEAN WATERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KT...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE
SCA THAT WAS UP THERE TO EXPIRE. STILL APPEAR ON TRACK FOR SCA
CONDITIONS THOUGH MIDDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

SEAS MIGHT TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO PAST THE SCA END TIME TO FALL
BELOW 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SO SCA END TIMES MIGHT BE FURTHER
ADJUSTED LATER THIS MORNING.

A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD THEN FOLLOWS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PIVOTS THROUGH.

WINDS PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 950MB LOW
LEVEL JET OF 60-70KT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A GALE WARNING FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE LONG ISLAND
BAYS LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCA FOR THE OTHER
WATERS DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS STILL
PROBABLE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER THAN THIS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT. LOOKS
LIKE BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL WATERS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THE NEXT STORM AFFECTS THE WATERS LATE WEDS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURS WITH A COASTAL STORM PASSING NEARBY THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
WEDS NIGHT. FOR NOW...SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GALES. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LOCALLY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT BEING TO
SLOW THE COMMUTE DUE TO WET ROADS.

THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OR MORE OF QPF TO FALL
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY ANY IMPACT...OTHER THAN TO NOTE
THAT SOME PORTION OF THIS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MORE THAN 1/2 INCH
OF QPF WOULD BE OVER LONG ISLAND AND S CT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ335-
     338.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ350-353.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 231146
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
646 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PASSES ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY MORNING...TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

CURRENTLY SEE NO EVIDENCE IN THE OBSERVATIONS THAT SPOTTY
RELATIVELY WEAK RADAR RETURNS CLIPPING FAR N PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...ARE PRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING BASED ON
SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS. BASED ON THIS...AND THAT SUPPORTING
SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE EXITING TO THE EAST BY 12Z...HAVE GONE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM. EVEN IF A SPRINKLE DID
OCCUR...TEMPERATURES ABOVE ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL REMAIN SO.


OTHERWISE...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY. WILL
SEE DECREASING CLOUD COVER IN RESPONSE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WITH AREAS PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO QUICKLY BUILD IN
BEHIND IT. WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AND PASSAGE OF A
60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECT MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY...RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE-850 HPA WARM FRONT.

THERE IS SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN ZONES...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES FORECAST TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2...ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THAT HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TO -SHRA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONTS LIFT TO THE NE. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF
THE AFD FOR DETAILS ON AMOUNTS AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

ALSO WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN ANY EMBEDDED
CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER EASTERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING - AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE 100
PERCENT RULED OUT. IT SHOULD END UP QUITE WINDY ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH.
ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THERE
OCCURRENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT THE LOWS TO OCCUR IN THE
EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 50S
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT MID-UPPER 40S FAR NW ORANGE COUNTY.

RECORD HIGHS QUITE POSSIBLY WILL BE SET ON MONDAY AT MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE REGION SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR ONCE
THERE. FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HIGHS
AROUND 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SEE AN ISOLD-SCT SHRA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. THEN CLEARING IN ITS WAKE.
FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SW FLOW ALOFT...AND AS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE ABSENT ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...IT SHOULD BE DRY.
FOR HIGHS USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT NOW THE
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY SUPPORTING THE GFS (THOUGH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FARTHER W). WITH THE GFS AND CMC TRENDING
STRONGER (AROUND 10 MB DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT) AND FARTHER
WEST...HAVE OPTED TO USE A ECMWF/GFS BLEND AS THERE IS INCREASING
EVIDENCE THAT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE TWO SEEMS THE MOST
REASONABLE.

UNTIL ALL THE KEY PLAYERS...INCLUDING ENERGY STILL OUT OVER THE
PACIFIC ARE RESOLVED...THE EXACT NATURE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE E
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN - SO
THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SOME DEGREE. FOR NOW THOUGH THE
FOLLOWING IS WHAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY - THAT A FAIRLY DECENT...BUT
NOT OVERLY STRONG LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE BLEND WOULD SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN COULD REACH LONG ISLAND
AND MAYBE FAR SE CT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN SPREAD NW FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW INLAND
BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN. AS THE LOW NEARS THE BENCHMARK
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD COME IN
BEHIND IT TO CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FROM NW TO SE...THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THIS IS UNCERTAIN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
THURSDAY MORNING...UNLESS THE DEFORMATION AXIS LINGERS OVER THE
AREA...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF. FOR THIS REASON JUST WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

THE ECMWF TAKEN BY ITSELF WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING
LEVEL SNOWS TO THE W/N OF NYC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FARTHER EAST. GIVEN
THIS...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE OF REACHING WARNING LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CWA...SO WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
HWO. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST...IF NOT ALL...ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THE IMPACT ON THE BULK
OF PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL SHOULD BE MINIMIZED.

ZONAL THEN SW FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO FRIDAY...THEN A
WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES TO THE N ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR CAPE COD. BASED ON THIS HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVER EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE CLIPPER ITSELF LIKELY PASSING TO FAR N TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION BY ITSELF UNTIL THE COASTAL LOW FORMS.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND GFS AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03-05Z MONDAY. RAIN WITH IFR DEVELOPS SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KBDR/KGON MAY BACK WINDS MORE TO THE SOUTH
LATE THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...ALL TERMINALS BACK TO THE SOUTH AT
SOME POINT BY MIDNIGHT AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS AT 2000FT RANGING FROM 50-65 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. MORNING SHRA. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT
WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WEDS NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT 44097 REMAIN AT 7FT AND AT 44025 AT 8 FT...WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT AT 44065 AT 5 AM. THEREFORE WILL EXTEND THE SCA FOR ANZ-355
UNTIL 9AM. LATEST OBSERVATIONS THOUGH INDICATE WIND GUSTS ON THE
NON- OCEAN WATERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KT...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE
SCA THAT WAS UP THERE TO EXPIRE. STILL APPEAR ON TRACK FOR SCA
CONDITIONS THOUGH MIDDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

SEAS MIGHT TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO PAST THE SCA END TIME TO FALL
BELOW 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SO SCA END TIMES MIGHT BE FURTHER
ADJUSTED LATER THIS MORNING.

A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD THEN FOLLOWS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PIVOTS THROUGH.

WINDS PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 950MB LOW
LEVEL JET OF 60-70KT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A GALE WARNING FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE LONG ISLAND
BAYS LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCA FOR THE OTHER
WATERS DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS STILL
PROBABLE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER THAN THIS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT. LOOKS
LIKE BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL WATERS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THE NEXT STORM AFFECTS THE WATERS LATE WEDS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURS WITH A COASTAL STORM PASSING NEARBY THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
WEDS NIGHT. FOR NOW...SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GALES. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LOCALLY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT BEING TO
SLOW THE COMMUTE DUE TO WET ROADS.

THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OR MORE OF QPF TO FALL
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY ANY IMPACT...OTHER THAN TO NOTE
THAT SOME PORTION OF THIS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MORE THAN 1/2 INCH
OF QPF WOULD BE OVER LONG ISLAND AND S CT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ335-
     338.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ350-353.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KBTV 231134
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 634 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCT
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END AS RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO VARIABLE CLOUDINESS HAVING A FEW BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THESE BREAKS...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 40S FOR
MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT
OF THE SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231134
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 634 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCT
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END AS RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO VARIABLE CLOUDINESS HAVING A FEW BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THESE BREAKS...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 40S FOR
MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT
OF THE SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KALY 231120
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...ENDING THE RAIN...AND ALLOWING
FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EST...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE FROM W TO E...WITH MAINLY JUST ISOLATED/SCATTERED
COVERAGE AT BEST. THIS DECREASING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 2 HOURS. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG COULD FORM IN SOME AREAS
THROUGH SUNRISE.

WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY...IF NOT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FURTHER S AND E...WE EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH A FEW PERIODS OF
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
LEAST CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 231113
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
613 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 231113
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
613 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 231113
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
613 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 231113
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
613 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KOKX 231106
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
606 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PASSES ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY MORNING...TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

CURRENTLY SEE NO EVIDENCE IN THE OBSERVATIONS THAT SPOTTY
RELATIVELY WEAK RADAR RETURNS CLIPPING FAR N PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...ARE PRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING BASED ON
SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS. BASED ON THIS...AND THAT SUPPORTING
SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE EXITING TO THE EAST BY 12Z...HAVE GONE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM. EVEN IF A SPRINKLE DID
OCCUR...TEMPERATURES ABOVE ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL REMAIN SO.


OTHERWISE...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY. WILL
SEE DECREASING CLOUD COVER IN RESPONSE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WITH AREAS PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO QUICKLY BUILD IN
BEHIND IT. WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AND PASSAGE OF A
60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECT MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY...RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE-850 HPA WARM FRONT.

THERE IS SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN ZONES...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES FORECAST TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2...ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THAT HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TO -SHRA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONTS LIFT TO THE NE. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF
THE AFD FOR DETAILS ON AMOUNTS AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

ALSO WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN ANY EMBEDDED
CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER EASTERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING - AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE 100
PERCENT RULED OUT. IT SHOULD END UP QUITE WINDY ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH.
ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THERE
OCCURRENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT THE LOWS TO OCCUR IN THE
EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 50S
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT MID-UPPER 40S FAR NW ORANGE COUNTY.

RECORD HIGHS QUITE POSSIBLY WILL BE SET ON MONDAY AT MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE REGION SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR ONCE
THERE. FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HIGHS
AROUND 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SEE AN ISOLD-SCT SHRA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. THEN CLEARING IN ITS WAKE.
FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SW FLOW ALOFT...AND AS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE ABSENT ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...IT SHOULD BE DRY.
FOR HIGHS USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT NOW THE
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY SUPPORTING THE GFS (THOUGH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FARTHER W). WITH THE GFS AND CMC TRENDING
STRONGER (AROUND 10 MB DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT) AND FARTHER
WEST...HAVE OPTED TO USE A ECMWF/GFS BLEND AS THERE IS INCREASING
EVIDENCE THAT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE TWO SEEMS THE MOST
REASONABLE.

UNTIL ALL THE KEY PLAYERS...INCLUDING ENERGY STILL OUT OVER THE
PACIFIC ARE RESOLVED...THE EXACT NATURE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE E
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN - SO
THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SOME DEGREE. FOR NOW THOUGH THE
FOLLOWING IS WHAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY - THAT A FAIRLY DECENT...BUT
NOT OVERLY STRONG LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE BLEND WOULD SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN COULD REACH LONG ISLAND
AND MAYBE FAR SE CT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN SPREAD NW FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW INLAND
BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN. AS THE LOW NEARS THE BENCHMARK
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD COME IN
BEHIND IT TO CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FROM NW TO SE...THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THIS IS UNCERTAIN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
THURSDAY MORNING...UNLESS THE DEFORMATION AXIS LINGERS OVER THE
AREA...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF. FOR THIS REASON JUST WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

THE ECMWF TAKEN BY ITSELF WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING
LEVEL SNOWS TO THE W/N OF NYC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FARTHER EAST. GIVEN
THIS...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE OF REACHING WARNING LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CWA...SO WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
HWO. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST...IF NOT ALL...ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THE IMPACT ON THE BULK
OF PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL SHOULD BE MINIMIZED.

ZONAL THEN SW FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO FRIDAY...THEN A
WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES TO THE N ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR CAPE COD. BASED ON THIS HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVER EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE CLIPPER ITSELF LIKELY PASSING TO FAR N TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION BY ITSELF UNTIL THE COASTAL LOW FORMS.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND GFS AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03Z MONDAY.

SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 10 KT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT POSSIBLE SEA BREEZES AT KHPN TO KGON
WITH LI SOUND TEMPS IN THE 40S. THIS WOULD BACK WINDS TO AROUND 170
TRUE AFT 17Z. WINDS WILL OTHERWISE BACK TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS EVENING.

CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BETWEEN 03-06Z MONDAY AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TONIGHT-MONDAY...IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN/FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE WITH 50-65
KT WINDS 1500-2000 FT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MID-MORNING.
HIGHEST EAST. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH 20-35 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15
KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WEDS NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT 44097 REMAIN AT 7FT AND AT 44025 AT 8 FT...WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT AT 44065 AT 5 AM. THEREFORE WILL EXTEND THE SCA FOR ANZ-355
UNTIL 9AM. LATEST OBSERVATIONS THOUGH INDICATE WIND GUSTS ON THE
NON- OCEAN WATERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KT...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE
SCA THAT WAS UP THERE TO EXPIRE. STILL APPEAR ON TRACK FOR SCA
CONDITIONS THOUGH MIDDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

SEAS MIGHT TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO PAST THE SCA END TIME TO FALL
BELOW 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SO SCA END TIMES MIGHT BE FURTHER
ADJUSTED LATER THIS MORNING.

A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD THEN FOLLOWS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PIVOTS THROUGH.

WINDS PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 950MB LOW
LEVEL JET OF 60-70KT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A GALE WARNING FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE LONG ISLAND
BAYS LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCA FOR THE OTHER
WATERS DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS STILL
PROBABLE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER THAN THIS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT. LOOKS
LIKE BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL WATERS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THE NEXT STORM AFFECTS THE WATERS LATE WEDS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURS WITH A COASTAL STORM PASSING NEARBY THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
WEDS NIGHT. FOR NOW...SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GALES. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LOCALLY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT BEING TO
SLOW THE COMMUTE DUE TO WET ROADS.

THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OR MORE OF QPF TO FALL
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY ANY IMPACT...OTHER THAN TO NOTE
THAT SOME PORTION OF THIS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MORE THAN 1/2 INCH
OF QPF WOULD BE OVER LONG ISLAND AND S CT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ335-
     338.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 231106
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
606 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PASSES ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY MORNING...TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

CURRENTLY SEE NO EVIDENCE IN THE OBSERVATIONS THAT SPOTTY
RELATIVELY WEAK RADAR RETURNS CLIPPING FAR N PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...ARE PRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING BASED ON
SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS. BASED ON THIS...AND THAT SUPPORTING
SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE EXITING TO THE EAST BY 12Z...HAVE GONE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM. EVEN IF A SPRINKLE DID
OCCUR...TEMPERATURES ABOVE ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL REMAIN SO.


OTHERWISE...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY. WILL
SEE DECREASING CLOUD COVER IN RESPONSE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WITH AREAS PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO QUICKLY BUILD IN
BEHIND IT. WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AND PASSAGE OF A
60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECT MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY...RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE-850 HPA WARM FRONT.

THERE IS SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN ZONES...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES FORECAST TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2...ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THAT HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TO -SHRA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONTS LIFT TO THE NE. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF
THE AFD FOR DETAILS ON AMOUNTS AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

ALSO WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN ANY EMBEDDED
CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER EASTERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING - AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE 100
PERCENT RULED OUT. IT SHOULD END UP QUITE WINDY ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH.
ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THERE
OCCURRENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT THE LOWS TO OCCUR IN THE
EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 50S
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT MID-UPPER 40S FAR NW ORANGE COUNTY.

RECORD HIGHS QUITE POSSIBLY WILL BE SET ON MONDAY AT MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE REGION SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR ONCE
THERE. FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HIGHS
AROUND 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SEE AN ISOLD-SCT SHRA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. THEN CLEARING IN ITS WAKE.
FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SW FLOW ALOFT...AND AS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE ABSENT ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...IT SHOULD BE DRY.
FOR HIGHS USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT NOW THE
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY SUPPORTING THE GFS (THOUGH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FARTHER W). WITH THE GFS AND CMC TRENDING
STRONGER (AROUND 10 MB DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT) AND FARTHER
WEST...HAVE OPTED TO USE A ECMWF/GFS BLEND AS THERE IS INCREASING
EVIDENCE THAT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE TWO SEEMS THE MOST
REASONABLE.

UNTIL ALL THE KEY PLAYERS...INCLUDING ENERGY STILL OUT OVER THE
PACIFIC ARE RESOLVED...THE EXACT NATURE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE E
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN - SO
THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SOME DEGREE. FOR NOW THOUGH THE
FOLLOWING IS WHAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY - THAT A FAIRLY DECENT...BUT
NOT OVERLY STRONG LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE BLEND WOULD SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN COULD REACH LONG ISLAND
AND MAYBE FAR SE CT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN SPREAD NW FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW INLAND
BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN. AS THE LOW NEARS THE BENCHMARK
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD COME IN
BEHIND IT TO CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FROM NW TO SE...THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THIS IS UNCERTAIN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
THURSDAY MORNING...UNLESS THE DEFORMATION AXIS LINGERS OVER THE
AREA...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF. FOR THIS REASON JUST WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

THE ECMWF TAKEN BY ITSELF WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING
LEVEL SNOWS TO THE W/N OF NYC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FARTHER EAST. GIVEN
THIS...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE OF REACHING WARNING LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CWA...SO WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
HWO. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST...IF NOT ALL...ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THE IMPACT ON THE BULK
OF PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL SHOULD BE MINIMIZED.

ZONAL THEN SW FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO FRIDAY...THEN A
WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES TO THE N ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR CAPE COD. BASED ON THIS HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVER EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE CLIPPER ITSELF LIKELY PASSING TO FAR N TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION BY ITSELF UNTIL THE COASTAL LOW FORMS.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND GFS AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03Z MONDAY.

SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 10 KT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT POSSIBLE SEA BREEZES AT KHPN TO KGON
WITH LI SOUND TEMPS IN THE 40S. THIS WOULD BACK WINDS TO AROUND 170
TRUE AFT 17Z. WINDS WILL OTHERWISE BACK TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS EVENING.

CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BETWEEN 03-06Z MONDAY AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TONIGHT-MONDAY...IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN/FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE WITH 50-65
KT WINDS 1500-2000 FT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MID-MORNING.
HIGHEST EAST. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH 20-35 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15
KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WEDS NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT 44097 REMAIN AT 7FT AND AT 44025 AT 8 FT...WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT AT 44065 AT 5 AM. THEREFORE WILL EXTEND THE SCA FOR ANZ-355
UNTIL 9AM. LATEST OBSERVATIONS THOUGH INDICATE WIND GUSTS ON THE
NON- OCEAN WATERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KT...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE
SCA THAT WAS UP THERE TO EXPIRE. STILL APPEAR ON TRACK FOR SCA
CONDITIONS THOUGH MIDDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

SEAS MIGHT TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO PAST THE SCA END TIME TO FALL
BELOW 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SO SCA END TIMES MIGHT BE FURTHER
ADJUSTED LATER THIS MORNING.

A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD THEN FOLLOWS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PIVOTS THROUGH.

WINDS PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 950MB LOW
LEVEL JET OF 60-70KT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A GALE WARNING FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE LONG ISLAND
BAYS LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCA FOR THE OTHER
WATERS DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS STILL
PROBABLE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER THAN THIS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT. LOOKS
LIKE BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL WATERS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THE NEXT STORM AFFECTS THE WATERS LATE WEDS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURS WITH A COASTAL STORM PASSING NEARBY THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
WEDS NIGHT. FOR NOW...SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GALES. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LOCALLY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT BEING TO
SLOW THE COMMUTE DUE TO WET ROADS.

THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OR MORE OF QPF TO FALL
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY ANY IMPACT...OTHER THAN TO NOTE
THAT SOME PORTION OF THIS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MORE THAN 1/2 INCH
OF QPF WOULD BE OVER LONG ISLAND AND S CT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ335-
     338.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 231106
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
606 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PASSES ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY MORNING...TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

CURRENTLY SEE NO EVIDENCE IN THE OBSERVATIONS THAT SPOTTY
RELATIVELY WEAK RADAR RETURNS CLIPPING FAR N PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...ARE PRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING BASED ON
SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS. BASED ON THIS...AND THAT SUPPORTING
SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE EXITING TO THE EAST BY 12Z...HAVE GONE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM. EVEN IF A SPRINKLE DID
OCCUR...TEMPERATURES ABOVE ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL REMAIN SO.


OTHERWISE...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY. WILL
SEE DECREASING CLOUD COVER IN RESPONSE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WITH AREAS PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO QUICKLY BUILD IN
BEHIND IT. WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AND PASSAGE OF A
60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECT MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY...RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE-850 HPA WARM FRONT.

THERE IS SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN ZONES...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES FORECAST TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2...ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THAT HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TO -SHRA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONTS LIFT TO THE NE. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF
THE AFD FOR DETAILS ON AMOUNTS AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

ALSO WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN ANY EMBEDDED
CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER EASTERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING - AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE 100
PERCENT RULED OUT. IT SHOULD END UP QUITE WINDY ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH.
ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THERE
OCCURRENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT THE LOWS TO OCCUR IN THE
EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 50S
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT MID-UPPER 40S FAR NW ORANGE COUNTY.

RECORD HIGHS QUITE POSSIBLY WILL BE SET ON MONDAY AT MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE REGION SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR ONCE
THERE. FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HIGHS
AROUND 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SEE AN ISOLD-SCT SHRA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. THEN CLEARING IN ITS WAKE.
FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SW FLOW ALOFT...AND AS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE ABSENT ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...IT SHOULD BE DRY.
FOR HIGHS USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT NOW THE
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY SUPPORTING THE GFS (THOUGH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FARTHER W). WITH THE GFS AND CMC TRENDING
STRONGER (AROUND 10 MB DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT) AND FARTHER
WEST...HAVE OPTED TO USE A ECMWF/GFS BLEND AS THERE IS INCREASING
EVIDENCE THAT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE TWO SEEMS THE MOST
REASONABLE.

UNTIL ALL THE KEY PLAYERS...INCLUDING ENERGY STILL OUT OVER THE
PACIFIC ARE RESOLVED...THE EXACT NATURE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE E
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN - SO
THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SOME DEGREE. FOR NOW THOUGH THE
FOLLOWING IS WHAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY - THAT A FAIRLY DECENT...BUT
NOT OVERLY STRONG LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE BLEND WOULD SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN COULD REACH LONG ISLAND
AND MAYBE FAR SE CT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN SPREAD NW FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW INLAND
BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN. AS THE LOW NEARS THE BENCHMARK
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD COME IN
BEHIND IT TO CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FROM NW TO SE...THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THIS IS UNCERTAIN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
THURSDAY MORNING...UNLESS THE DEFORMATION AXIS LINGERS OVER THE
AREA...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF. FOR THIS REASON JUST WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

THE ECMWF TAKEN BY ITSELF WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING
LEVEL SNOWS TO THE W/N OF NYC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FARTHER EAST. GIVEN
THIS...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE OF REACHING WARNING LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CWA...SO WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
HWO. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST...IF NOT ALL...ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THE IMPACT ON THE BULK
OF PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL SHOULD BE MINIMIZED.

ZONAL THEN SW FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO FRIDAY...THEN A
WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES TO THE N ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR CAPE COD. BASED ON THIS HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVER EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE CLIPPER ITSELF LIKELY PASSING TO FAR N TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION BY ITSELF UNTIL THE COASTAL LOW FORMS.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND GFS AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03Z MONDAY.

SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 10 KT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT POSSIBLE SEA BREEZES AT KHPN TO KGON
WITH LI SOUND TEMPS IN THE 40S. THIS WOULD BACK WINDS TO AROUND 170
TRUE AFT 17Z. WINDS WILL OTHERWISE BACK TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS EVENING.

CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BETWEEN 03-06Z MONDAY AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TONIGHT-MONDAY...IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN/FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE WITH 50-65
KT WINDS 1500-2000 FT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MID-MORNING.
HIGHEST EAST. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH 20-35 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15
KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WEDS NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT 44097 REMAIN AT 7FT AND AT 44025 AT 8 FT...WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT AT 44065 AT 5 AM. THEREFORE WILL EXTEND THE SCA FOR ANZ-355
UNTIL 9AM. LATEST OBSERVATIONS THOUGH INDICATE WIND GUSTS ON THE
NON- OCEAN WATERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KT...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE
SCA THAT WAS UP THERE TO EXPIRE. STILL APPEAR ON TRACK FOR SCA
CONDITIONS THOUGH MIDDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

SEAS MIGHT TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO PAST THE SCA END TIME TO FALL
BELOW 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SO SCA END TIMES MIGHT BE FURTHER
ADJUSTED LATER THIS MORNING.

A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD THEN FOLLOWS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PIVOTS THROUGH.

WINDS PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 950MB LOW
LEVEL JET OF 60-70KT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A GALE WARNING FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE LONG ISLAND
BAYS LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCA FOR THE OTHER
WATERS DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS STILL
PROBABLE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER THAN THIS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT. LOOKS
LIKE BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL WATERS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THE NEXT STORM AFFECTS THE WATERS LATE WEDS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURS WITH A COASTAL STORM PASSING NEARBY THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
WEDS NIGHT. FOR NOW...SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GALES. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LOCALLY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT BEING TO
SLOW THE COMMUTE DUE TO WET ROADS.

THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OR MORE OF QPF TO FALL
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY ANY IMPACT...OTHER THAN TO NOTE
THAT SOME PORTION OF THIS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MORE THAN 1/2 INCH
OF QPF WOULD BE OVER LONG ISLAND AND S CT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ335-
     338.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 231106
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
606 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PASSES ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY MORNING...TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

CURRENTLY SEE NO EVIDENCE IN THE OBSERVATIONS THAT SPOTTY
RELATIVELY WEAK RADAR RETURNS CLIPPING FAR N PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...ARE PRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING BASED ON
SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS. BASED ON THIS...AND THAT SUPPORTING
SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE EXITING TO THE EAST BY 12Z...HAVE GONE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM. EVEN IF A SPRINKLE DID
OCCUR...TEMPERATURES ABOVE ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL REMAIN SO.


OTHERWISE...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY. WILL
SEE DECREASING CLOUD COVER IN RESPONSE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WITH AREAS PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO QUICKLY BUILD IN
BEHIND IT. WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AND PASSAGE OF A
60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECT MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY...RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE-850 HPA WARM FRONT.

THERE IS SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN ZONES...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES FORECAST TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2...ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THAT HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TO -SHRA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONTS LIFT TO THE NE. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF
THE AFD FOR DETAILS ON AMOUNTS AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

ALSO WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN ANY EMBEDDED
CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER EASTERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING - AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE 100
PERCENT RULED OUT. IT SHOULD END UP QUITE WINDY ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH.
ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THERE
OCCURRENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT THE LOWS TO OCCUR IN THE
EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 50S
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT MID-UPPER 40S FAR NW ORANGE COUNTY.

RECORD HIGHS QUITE POSSIBLY WILL BE SET ON MONDAY AT MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE REGION SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR ONCE
THERE. FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HIGHS
AROUND 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SEE AN ISOLD-SCT SHRA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. THEN CLEARING IN ITS WAKE.
FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SW FLOW ALOFT...AND AS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE ABSENT ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...IT SHOULD BE DRY.
FOR HIGHS USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT NOW THE
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY SUPPORTING THE GFS (THOUGH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FARTHER W). WITH THE GFS AND CMC TRENDING
STRONGER (AROUND 10 MB DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT) AND FARTHER
WEST...HAVE OPTED TO USE A ECMWF/GFS BLEND AS THERE IS INCREASING
EVIDENCE THAT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE TWO SEEMS THE MOST
REASONABLE.

UNTIL ALL THE KEY PLAYERS...INCLUDING ENERGY STILL OUT OVER THE
PACIFIC ARE RESOLVED...THE EXACT NATURE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE E
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN - SO
THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SOME DEGREE. FOR NOW THOUGH THE
FOLLOWING IS WHAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY - THAT A FAIRLY DECENT...BUT
NOT OVERLY STRONG LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE BLEND WOULD SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN COULD REACH LONG ISLAND
AND MAYBE FAR SE CT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN SPREAD NW FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW INLAND
BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN. AS THE LOW NEARS THE BENCHMARK
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD COME IN
BEHIND IT TO CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FROM NW TO SE...THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THIS IS UNCERTAIN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
THURSDAY MORNING...UNLESS THE DEFORMATION AXIS LINGERS OVER THE
AREA...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF. FOR THIS REASON JUST WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

THE ECMWF TAKEN BY ITSELF WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING
LEVEL SNOWS TO THE W/N OF NYC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FARTHER EAST. GIVEN
THIS...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE OF REACHING WARNING LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CWA...SO WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
HWO. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST...IF NOT ALL...ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THE IMPACT ON THE BULK
OF PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL SHOULD BE MINIMIZED.

ZONAL THEN SW FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO FRIDAY...THEN A
WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES TO THE N ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR CAPE COD. BASED ON THIS HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVER EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE CLIPPER ITSELF LIKELY PASSING TO FAR N TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION BY ITSELF UNTIL THE COASTAL LOW FORMS.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND GFS AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03Z MONDAY.

SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 10 KT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT POSSIBLE SEA BREEZES AT KHPN TO KGON
WITH LI SOUND TEMPS IN THE 40S. THIS WOULD BACK WINDS TO AROUND 170
TRUE AFT 17Z. WINDS WILL OTHERWISE BACK TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS EVENING.

CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BETWEEN 03-06Z MONDAY AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TONIGHT-MONDAY...IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN/FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE WITH 50-65
KT WINDS 1500-2000 FT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MID-MORNING.
HIGHEST EAST. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH 20-35 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15
KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WEDS NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT 44097 REMAIN AT 7FT AND AT 44025 AT 8 FT...WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT AT 44065 AT 5 AM. THEREFORE WILL EXTEND THE SCA FOR ANZ-355
UNTIL 9AM. LATEST OBSERVATIONS THOUGH INDICATE WIND GUSTS ON THE
NON- OCEAN WATERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KT...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE
SCA THAT WAS UP THERE TO EXPIRE. STILL APPEAR ON TRACK FOR SCA
CONDITIONS THOUGH MIDDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

SEAS MIGHT TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO PAST THE SCA END TIME TO FALL
BELOW 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS...SO SCA END TIMES MIGHT BE FURTHER
ADJUSTED LATER THIS MORNING.

A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD THEN FOLLOWS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PIVOTS THROUGH.

WINDS PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 950MB LOW
LEVEL JET OF 60-70KT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A GALE WARNING FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE LONG ISLAND
BAYS LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCA FOR THE OTHER
WATERS DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS STILL
PROBABLE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER THAN THIS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT. LOOKS
LIKE BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL WATERS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THE NEXT STORM AFFECTS THE WATERS LATE WEDS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURS WITH A COASTAL STORM PASSING NEARBY THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
WEDS NIGHT. FOR NOW...SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GALES. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LOCALLY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT BEING TO
SLOW THE COMMUTE DUE TO WET ROADS.

THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OR MORE OF QPF TO FALL
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY ANY IMPACT...OTHER THAN TO NOTE
THAT SOME PORTION OF THIS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MORE THAN 1/2 INCH
OF QPF WOULD BE OVER LONG ISLAND AND S CT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ335-
     338.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KALY 231103
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...ENDING THE RAIN...AND ALLOWING
FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EST...RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE
LAST AREA OF SHOWERS IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TUG HILL
REGION...AND MOVING EAST VERY RAPIDLY. WE EXPECT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS TO TAPER OFF FROM W TO E BETWEEN 5
AND 7 AM.

FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...BEFORE ENDING.

AFTER THE SHOWERS END...WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...IF NOT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FURTHER S AND E...WE
EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
A FEW PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE LEAST CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 231103
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...ENDING THE RAIN...AND ALLOWING
FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EST...RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE
LAST AREA OF SHOWERS IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TUG HILL
REGION...AND MOVING EAST VERY RAPIDLY. WE EXPECT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS TO TAPER OFF FROM W TO E BETWEEN 5
AND 7 AM.

FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...BEFORE ENDING.

AFTER THE SHOWERS END...WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...IF NOT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FURTHER S AND E...WE
EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
A FEW PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE LEAST CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KBUF 231100
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
600 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS WARMER
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS THAT CROSSED THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS EXITED WESTERN NY AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF
LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN OHIO IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT WESTERN
NY THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS ROUND OF RAINFALL IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BRING A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS AS IT CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE BIGGER
STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
EXACERBATE MELTING OF THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
LOWER 50S NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES...THOUGH HAVE KNOCKED THE TEMP
FORECAST BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THAT
WILL DOG THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY WARM
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARDS ON THE NOSE OF A 65KT LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SHIELD MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
ORIENTATION TO THE FLOW AND THE INVERSION SETTING UP NEAR THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE-TOP...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE OTHER FEATURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MOVES ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE HEAVIEST-HIT SNOWFALL AREAS TONIGHT
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER TO A HALF-INCH ACROSS THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA AND NEAR THE PA BORDER IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ON
THE TUG. NONETHELESS...THE SHEER VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE SNOWMELT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT FLOOD
THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD REMAIN: 1) FLOODING ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES MELTING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND 2) A
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

COMPLEX DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MONDAY JUST TO THE WEST OF NEW YORK. EARLY MONDAY A
SHARP WARM FRONT SHOULD BE SHIFTING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A DRY
SLOT AND STRENGTHENING JET ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH MOST LIKELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT COULD NOT QUITE RULE OUT A LOW CHANCE OF VERY PATCHY
SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOW 60S
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A 950MB INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT ANY STRONG WIND
GUSTS FROM A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN AND KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR WARMER SURFACE TEMPS IN CHECK UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

SNOW MELT AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...
THIS WARM UP WILL CONTINUE THE RAPID SNOWMELT ACROSS AREAS WHICH
RECEIVED LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW CORE
MEASUREMENTS FROM FRIDAY SHOWED THE SNOW PACK HAS AN AVERAGE OF 4-6
INCHES OF LIQUID LOCKED UP. SNOW MELT MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE
FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
MELT UNDER FORECASTED CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING
SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING
WITH FINER DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FLOOD WARNING AND HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW. RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY AT LEAST TO MINOR
STAGES SO RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BUFFALO CREEKS.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA MONDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS BUT THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE WITH COLD ADVECTION ALLOWING
WIND ENERGY FROM A NOW STRONGER 60-75KT LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT TO BEGIN
MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ERODE WITH
THE COLD ADVECTION AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE. A HIGH
WIND WATCH REMAINS FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK COUNTIES WHICH
TYPICALLY SEEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS WHEN STRONG CUTTER LOWS PASS TO THE
WEST. HAVE HELD OFF ON THE DECISION TO GO WITH A WARNING VERSES
STICKING WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS SHIFT BUT WOULD AT LEAST
EXPECT ALL COUNTIES TO SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS BEING THE COUNTIES UNDER THE
WATCH. CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS PERIOD INDICATE THAT SIMILAR PATTERNS
HAVE SHOWN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 50KTS WHICH WOULD
INCREASE CONFIDENCE HOWEVER EXACTLY WHICH COUNTIES IS STILL MORE
UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STRONG LOW.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE DOWN TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS MAY
CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED INTO PART OF TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
SLOW TO EXIT. 850MB TEMPS WILL STEADILY FALL BACK TO AROUND -10C BY
LATE TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LAKE-850 INSTABILITY.
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL RISE TO 8KFT AND A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS EAST OF THE LAKES BY LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MAY FALL INTO THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION THEN DOWN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH WEDNESDAY TO
CONTINUE CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE NOREASTER`
LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED CHANCES OF
LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KART THIS MORNING AS THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS HAS DEPARTED TO THE EAST...HOWEVER ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER NRN OH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER THIS
MORNING...POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY WILL LEAD TO STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE TONIGHT WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG LLJ
MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS RAIN WITH MAINLY MVFR/VFR CIGS.
SIGNIFICANT LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT ON THE LAKES AND HAVE CANCELLED OR
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ALL REMAINING ADVISORIES. THE RESPITE WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON
LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA
VALLEY AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALE WATCHES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELD ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE NORTHERLY
WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW TRACKS UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 TODAY...REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT
ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 40S THEN RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY.
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE
VERY EFFICIENT AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT...WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES
WITH AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THAT RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ019-085.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
         EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 231100
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
600 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS WARMER
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS THAT CROSSED THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS EXITED WESTERN NY AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF
LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN OHIO IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT WESTERN
NY THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS ROUND OF RAINFALL IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BRING A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS AS IT CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE BIGGER
STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
EXACERBATE MELTING OF THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
LOWER 50S NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES...THOUGH HAVE KNOCKED THE TEMP
FORECAST BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THAT
WILL DOG THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY WARM
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARDS ON THE NOSE OF A 65KT LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SHIELD MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
ORIENTATION TO THE FLOW AND THE INVERSION SETTING UP NEAR THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE-TOP...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE OTHER FEATURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MOVES ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE HEAVIEST-HIT SNOWFALL AREAS TONIGHT
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER TO A HALF-INCH ACROSS THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA AND NEAR THE PA BORDER IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ON
THE TUG. NONETHELESS...THE SHEER VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE SNOWMELT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT FLOOD
THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD REMAIN: 1) FLOODING ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES MELTING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND 2) A
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

COMPLEX DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MONDAY JUST TO THE WEST OF NEW YORK. EARLY MONDAY A
SHARP WARM FRONT SHOULD BE SHIFTING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A DRY
SLOT AND STRENGTHENING JET ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH MOST LIKELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT COULD NOT QUITE RULE OUT A LOW CHANCE OF VERY PATCHY
SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOW 60S
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A 950MB INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT ANY STRONG WIND
GUSTS FROM A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN AND KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR WARMER SURFACE TEMPS IN CHECK UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

SNOW MELT AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...
THIS WARM UP WILL CONTINUE THE RAPID SNOWMELT ACROSS AREAS WHICH
RECEIVED LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW CORE
MEASUREMENTS FROM FRIDAY SHOWED THE SNOW PACK HAS AN AVERAGE OF 4-6
INCHES OF LIQUID LOCKED UP. SNOW MELT MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE
FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
MELT UNDER FORECASTED CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING
SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING
WITH FINER DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FLOOD WARNING AND HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW. RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY AT LEAST TO MINOR
STAGES SO RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BUFFALO CREEKS.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA MONDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS BUT THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE WITH COLD ADVECTION ALLOWING
WIND ENERGY FROM A NOW STRONGER 60-75KT LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT TO BEGIN
MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ERODE WITH
THE COLD ADVECTION AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE. A HIGH
WIND WATCH REMAINS FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK COUNTIES WHICH
TYPICALLY SEEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS WHEN STRONG CUTTER LOWS PASS TO THE
WEST. HAVE HELD OFF ON THE DECISION TO GO WITH A WARNING VERSES
STICKING WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS SHIFT BUT WOULD AT LEAST
EXPECT ALL COUNTIES TO SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS BEING THE COUNTIES UNDER THE
WATCH. CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS PERIOD INDICATE THAT SIMILAR PATTERNS
HAVE SHOWN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 50KTS WHICH WOULD
INCREASE CONFIDENCE HOWEVER EXACTLY WHICH COUNTIES IS STILL MORE
UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STRONG LOW.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE DOWN TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS MAY
CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED INTO PART OF TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
SLOW TO EXIT. 850MB TEMPS WILL STEADILY FALL BACK TO AROUND -10C BY
LATE TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LAKE-850 INSTABILITY.
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL RISE TO 8KFT AND A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS EAST OF THE LAKES BY LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MAY FALL INTO THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION THEN DOWN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH WEDNESDAY TO
CONTINUE CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE NOREASTER`
LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED CHANCES OF
LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KART THIS MORNING AS THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS HAS DEPARTED TO THE EAST...HOWEVER ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER NRN OH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER THIS
MORNING...POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY WILL LEAD TO STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE TONIGHT WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG LLJ
MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS RAIN WITH MAINLY MVFR/VFR CIGS.
SIGNIFICANT LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT ON THE LAKES AND HAVE CANCELLED OR
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ALL REMAINING ADVISORIES. THE RESPITE WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON
LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA
VALLEY AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALE WATCHES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELD ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE NORTHERLY
WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW TRACKS UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 TODAY...REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT
ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 40S THEN RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY.
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE
VERY EFFICIENT AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT...WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES
WITH AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THAT RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ019-085.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
         EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 231012
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
512 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS WARMER
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS THAT CROSSED THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS EXITED WESTERN NY AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF
LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN OHIO IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT WESTERN
NY THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS ROUND OF RAINFALL IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BRING A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS AS IT CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE BIGGER
STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
EXACERBATE MELTING OF THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
LOWER 50S NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES...THOUGH HAVE KNOCKED THE TEMP
FORECAST BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THAT
WILL DOG THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY WARM
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARDS ON THE NOSE OF A 65KT LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SHIELD MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
ORIENTATION TO THE FLOW AND THE INVERSION SETTING UP NEAR THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE-TOP...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE OTHER FEATURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MOVES ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE HEAVIEST-HIT SNOWFALL AREAS TONIGHT
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER TO A HALF-INCH ACROSS THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA AND NEAR THE PA BORDER IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ON
THE TUG. NONETHELESS...THE SHEER VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE SNOWMELT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT FLOOD
THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY REMAIN: 1) THE WARM UP
WITH SOME RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FLOODING AND 2) A POSSIBLE HIGH
WIND EVENT ON MONDAY...FOR WHICH A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

PHASING BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JETS OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
ALLOW FOR AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
INTO CANADA. THIS WILL ADVECT ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THIS WARM FRONT PASSAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET PUSHING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF 70+ KNOTS AT 850 MB. THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THIS INITIAL LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BRING A STRONG WIND THREAT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...INCLUDING DUNKIRK...DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE OTHER IMPACT OF THESE SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL BE TO EAT AWAY AT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD HELP TO LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER THE
WARM FRONT AND QG FORCING WILL LIKELY OVERWHELM THE DOWNSLOPE...SO
QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 OR SLIGHTLY MORE STILL SEEM REASONABLE.
ANOTHER IMPACT OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING WINDS WILL
BE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP EXPEDITE THE SNOW MELT PROCESS.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE WINDS ALOFT VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
MORE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR A WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENT AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE MIXED TO THE SURFACE. IN COMPARING THE FORECAST
PATTERN TO LOCAL RESEARCH ON HIGH WIND EVENTS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THIS EVENT MATCHES VERY WELL TO THE AVERAGE PATTERN SEEN DURING HIGH
WIND EVENTS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE
60S...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE
LOCATIONS FROM ROCHESTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 OR SO OF QPF.

TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY WINDY BEHIND
THE MONDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT PASSAGE...HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

SNOW MELT AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...
THE WARM UP AND PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE STILL ON TRACK AND APPEAR
FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE FLOODING FROM THE SNOW MELT. ONCE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THE RIPENING SNOW PACK WILL
BEGIN TO LET LOOSE WITH RAPID SNOW MELT ACROSS AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPTH MEASUREMENTS FROM
FRIDAY INDICATED SNOW PACK HAS COMPACTED DOWN TO BETWEEN 20 AND 40
INCHES WITH AN AVERAGE OF 4-6 INCHES OF LIQUID LOCKED UP. SNOW MELT
MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE FROM LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD MELT UNDER FORECASTED CONDITIONS.
THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY
RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WITH FINER DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE FLOOD WATCH AND HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

HIGH WINDS...
ADDED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH WIND THREAT ON MONDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
850MB JET MONDAY NIGHT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN
WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND POSSIBLY THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THE LOW LEVEL JET
VEERS TO SOUTHWEST WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG
WINDS AS WIND ENERGY FROM 50-60KT 850MB WINDS MIX DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMB TO AROUND 10KFT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE
NOREASTER` LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THE WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED
CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KART THIS MORNING AS THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS HAS DEPARTED TO THE EAST...HOWEVER ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER NRN OH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER THIS
MORNING...POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY WILL LEAD TO STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE TONIGHT WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG LLJ
MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS RAIN WITH MAINLY MVFR/VFR CIGS.
SIGNIFICANT LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT ON THE LAKES AND HAVE CANCELLED OR
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ALL REMAINING ADVISORIES. THE RESPITE WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON
LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA
VALLEY AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALE WATCHES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELD ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE NORTHERLY
WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW TRACKS UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY WAS COMPLETED FRIDAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEW POINTS ARE
ALREADY WELL ABOVE 32 THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT
AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH
AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN AS
EARLY AS THIS EVENING....SO HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST THREAT IS
ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS FROM THIS
WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...
CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR
FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS
CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND
SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ019-085.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
         EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 231012
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
512 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS WARMER
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS THAT CROSSED THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS EXITED WESTERN NY AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF
LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN OHIO IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT WESTERN
NY THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS ROUND OF RAINFALL IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BRING A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS AS IT CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE BIGGER
STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
EXACERBATE MELTING OF THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
LOWER 50S NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES...THOUGH HAVE KNOCKED THE TEMP
FORECAST BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THAT
WILL DOG THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY WARM
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARDS ON THE NOSE OF A 65KT LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SHIELD MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
ORIENTATION TO THE FLOW AND THE INVERSION SETTING UP NEAR THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE-TOP...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE OTHER FEATURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MOVES ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE HEAVIEST-HIT SNOWFALL AREAS TONIGHT
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER TO A HALF-INCH ACROSS THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA AND NEAR THE PA BORDER IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ON
THE TUG. NONETHELESS...THE SHEER VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE SNOWMELT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT FLOOD
THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY REMAIN: 1) THE WARM UP
WITH SOME RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FLOODING AND 2) A POSSIBLE HIGH
WIND EVENT ON MONDAY...FOR WHICH A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

PHASING BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JETS OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
ALLOW FOR AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
INTO CANADA. THIS WILL ADVECT ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THIS WARM FRONT PASSAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET PUSHING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF 70+ KNOTS AT 850 MB. THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THIS INITIAL LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BRING A STRONG WIND THREAT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...INCLUDING DUNKIRK...DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE OTHER IMPACT OF THESE SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL BE TO EAT AWAY AT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD HELP TO LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER THE
WARM FRONT AND QG FORCING WILL LIKELY OVERWHELM THE DOWNSLOPE...SO
QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 OR SLIGHTLY MORE STILL SEEM REASONABLE.
ANOTHER IMPACT OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING WINDS WILL
BE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP EXPEDITE THE SNOW MELT PROCESS.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE WINDS ALOFT VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
MORE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR A WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENT AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE MIXED TO THE SURFACE. IN COMPARING THE FORECAST
PATTERN TO LOCAL RESEARCH ON HIGH WIND EVENTS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THIS EVENT MATCHES VERY WELL TO THE AVERAGE PATTERN SEEN DURING HIGH
WIND EVENTS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE
60S...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE
LOCATIONS FROM ROCHESTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 OR SO OF QPF.

TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY WINDY BEHIND
THE MONDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT PASSAGE...HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

SNOW MELT AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...
THE WARM UP AND PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE STILL ON TRACK AND APPEAR
FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE FLOODING FROM THE SNOW MELT. ONCE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THE RIPENING SNOW PACK WILL
BEGIN TO LET LOOSE WITH RAPID SNOW MELT ACROSS AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPTH MEASUREMENTS FROM
FRIDAY INDICATED SNOW PACK HAS COMPACTED DOWN TO BETWEEN 20 AND 40
INCHES WITH AN AVERAGE OF 4-6 INCHES OF LIQUID LOCKED UP. SNOW MELT
MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE FROM LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD MELT UNDER FORECASTED CONDITIONS.
THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY
RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WITH FINER DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE FLOOD WATCH AND HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

HIGH WINDS...
ADDED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH WIND THREAT ON MONDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
850MB JET MONDAY NIGHT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN
WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND POSSIBLY THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THE LOW LEVEL JET
VEERS TO SOUTHWEST WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG
WINDS AS WIND ENERGY FROM 50-60KT 850MB WINDS MIX DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMB TO AROUND 10KFT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE
NOREASTER` LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THE WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED
CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KART THIS MORNING AS THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS HAS DEPARTED TO THE EAST...HOWEVER ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER NRN OH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER THIS
MORNING...POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY WILL LEAD TO STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE TONIGHT WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG LLJ
MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS RAIN WITH MAINLY MVFR/VFR CIGS.
SIGNIFICANT LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT ON THE LAKES AND HAVE CANCELLED OR
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ALL REMAINING ADVISORIES. THE RESPITE WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON
LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA
VALLEY AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALE WATCHES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELD ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE NORTHERLY
WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW TRACKS UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY WAS COMPLETED FRIDAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEW POINTS ARE
ALREADY WELL ABOVE 32 THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT
AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH
AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN AS
EARLY AS THIS EVENING....SO HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST THREAT IS
ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS FROM THIS
WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...
CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR
FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS
CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND
SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ019-085.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
         EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 231012
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
512 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS WARMER
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS THAT CROSSED THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS EXITED WESTERN NY AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF
LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN OHIO IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT WESTERN
NY THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS ROUND OF RAINFALL IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BRING A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS AS IT CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE BIGGER
STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
EXACERBATE MELTING OF THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
LOWER 50S NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES...THOUGH HAVE KNOCKED THE TEMP
FORECAST BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THAT
WILL DOG THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY WARM
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARDS ON THE NOSE OF A 65KT LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SHIELD MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
ORIENTATION TO THE FLOW AND THE INVERSION SETTING UP NEAR THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE-TOP...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE OTHER FEATURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MOVES ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE HEAVIEST-HIT SNOWFALL AREAS TONIGHT
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER TO A HALF-INCH ACROSS THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA AND NEAR THE PA BORDER IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ON
THE TUG. NONETHELESS...THE SHEER VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE SNOWMELT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT FLOOD
THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY REMAIN: 1) THE WARM UP
WITH SOME RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FLOODING AND 2) A POSSIBLE HIGH
WIND EVENT ON MONDAY...FOR WHICH A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

PHASING BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JETS OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
ALLOW FOR AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
INTO CANADA. THIS WILL ADVECT ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THIS WARM FRONT PASSAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET PUSHING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF 70+ KNOTS AT 850 MB. THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THIS INITIAL LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BRING A STRONG WIND THREAT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...INCLUDING DUNKIRK...DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE OTHER IMPACT OF THESE SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL BE TO EAT AWAY AT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD HELP TO LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER THE
WARM FRONT AND QG FORCING WILL LIKELY OVERWHELM THE DOWNSLOPE...SO
QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 OR SLIGHTLY MORE STILL SEEM REASONABLE.
ANOTHER IMPACT OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING WINDS WILL
BE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP EXPEDITE THE SNOW MELT PROCESS.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE WINDS ALOFT VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
MORE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR A WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENT AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE MIXED TO THE SURFACE. IN COMPARING THE FORECAST
PATTERN TO LOCAL RESEARCH ON HIGH WIND EVENTS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THIS EVENT MATCHES VERY WELL TO THE AVERAGE PATTERN SEEN DURING HIGH
WIND EVENTS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE
60S...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE
LOCATIONS FROM ROCHESTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 OR SO OF QPF.

TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY WINDY BEHIND
THE MONDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT PASSAGE...HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

SNOW MELT AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...
THE WARM UP AND PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE STILL ON TRACK AND APPEAR
FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE FLOODING FROM THE SNOW MELT. ONCE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THE RIPENING SNOW PACK WILL
BEGIN TO LET LOOSE WITH RAPID SNOW MELT ACROSS AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPTH MEASUREMENTS FROM
FRIDAY INDICATED SNOW PACK HAS COMPACTED DOWN TO BETWEEN 20 AND 40
INCHES WITH AN AVERAGE OF 4-6 INCHES OF LIQUID LOCKED UP. SNOW MELT
MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE FROM LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD MELT UNDER FORECASTED CONDITIONS.
THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY
RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WITH FINER DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE FLOOD WATCH AND HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

HIGH WINDS...
ADDED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH WIND THREAT ON MONDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
850MB JET MONDAY NIGHT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN
WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND POSSIBLY THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THE LOW LEVEL JET
VEERS TO SOUTHWEST WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG
WINDS AS WIND ENERGY FROM 50-60KT 850MB WINDS MIX DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMB TO AROUND 10KFT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE
NOREASTER` LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THE WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED
CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KART THIS MORNING AS THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS HAS DEPARTED TO THE EAST...HOWEVER ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER NRN OH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER THIS
MORNING...POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY WILL LEAD TO STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE TONIGHT WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG LLJ
MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS RAIN WITH MAINLY MVFR/VFR CIGS.
SIGNIFICANT LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT ON THE LAKES AND HAVE CANCELLED OR
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ALL REMAINING ADVISORIES. THE RESPITE WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON
LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA
VALLEY AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALE WATCHES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELD ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE NORTHERLY
WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW TRACKS UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY WAS COMPLETED FRIDAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEW POINTS ARE
ALREADY WELL ABOVE 32 THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT
AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH
AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN AS
EARLY AS THIS EVENING....SO HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST THREAT IS
ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS FROM THIS
WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...
CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR
FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS
CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND
SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ019-085.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
         EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 231012
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
512 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS WARMER
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS THAT CROSSED THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS EXITED WESTERN NY AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF
LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN OHIO IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT WESTERN
NY THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS ROUND OF RAINFALL IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BRING A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS AS IT CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE BIGGER
STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
EXACERBATE MELTING OF THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
LOWER 50S NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES...THOUGH HAVE KNOCKED THE TEMP
FORECAST BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THAT
WILL DOG THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY WARM
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARDS ON THE NOSE OF A 65KT LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SHIELD MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
ORIENTATION TO THE FLOW AND THE INVERSION SETTING UP NEAR THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE-TOP...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE OTHER FEATURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MOVES ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE HEAVIEST-HIT SNOWFALL AREAS TONIGHT
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER TO A HALF-INCH ACROSS THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA AND NEAR THE PA BORDER IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ON
THE TUG. NONETHELESS...THE SHEER VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE SNOWMELT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT FLOOD
THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY REMAIN: 1) THE WARM UP
WITH SOME RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FLOODING AND 2) A POSSIBLE HIGH
WIND EVENT ON MONDAY...FOR WHICH A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

PHASING BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JETS OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
ALLOW FOR AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
INTO CANADA. THIS WILL ADVECT ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THIS WARM FRONT PASSAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET PUSHING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF 70+ KNOTS AT 850 MB. THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THIS INITIAL LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BRING A STRONG WIND THREAT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...INCLUDING DUNKIRK...DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE OTHER IMPACT OF THESE SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL BE TO EAT AWAY AT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD HELP TO LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER THE
WARM FRONT AND QG FORCING WILL LIKELY OVERWHELM THE DOWNSLOPE...SO
QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 OR SLIGHTLY MORE STILL SEEM REASONABLE.
ANOTHER IMPACT OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING WINDS WILL
BE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP EXPEDITE THE SNOW MELT PROCESS.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE WINDS ALOFT VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
MORE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR A WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENT AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE MIXED TO THE SURFACE. IN COMPARING THE FORECAST
PATTERN TO LOCAL RESEARCH ON HIGH WIND EVENTS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THIS EVENT MATCHES VERY WELL TO THE AVERAGE PATTERN SEEN DURING HIGH
WIND EVENTS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE
60S...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE
LOCATIONS FROM ROCHESTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 OR SO OF QPF.

TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY WINDY BEHIND
THE MONDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT PASSAGE...HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

SNOW MELT AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...
THE WARM UP AND PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE STILL ON TRACK AND APPEAR
FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE FLOODING FROM THE SNOW MELT. ONCE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THE RIPENING SNOW PACK WILL
BEGIN TO LET LOOSE WITH RAPID SNOW MELT ACROSS AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPTH MEASUREMENTS FROM
FRIDAY INDICATED SNOW PACK HAS COMPACTED DOWN TO BETWEEN 20 AND 40
INCHES WITH AN AVERAGE OF 4-6 INCHES OF LIQUID LOCKED UP. SNOW MELT
MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE FROM LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD MELT UNDER FORECASTED CONDITIONS.
THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY
RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WITH FINER DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE FLOOD WATCH AND HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

HIGH WINDS...
ADDED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH WIND THREAT ON MONDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
850MB JET MONDAY NIGHT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN
WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND POSSIBLY THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THE LOW LEVEL JET
VEERS TO SOUTHWEST WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG
WINDS AS WIND ENERGY FROM 50-60KT 850MB WINDS MIX DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMB TO AROUND 10KFT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE
NOREASTER` LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THE WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED
CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KART THIS MORNING AS THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS HAS DEPARTED TO THE EAST...HOWEVER ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER NRN OH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER THIS
MORNING...POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY WILL LEAD TO STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE TONIGHT WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG LLJ
MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS RAIN WITH MAINLY MVFR/VFR CIGS.
SIGNIFICANT LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT ON THE LAKES AND HAVE CANCELLED OR
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ALL REMAINING ADVISORIES. THE RESPITE WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON
LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA
VALLEY AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALE WATCHES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELD ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE NORTHERLY
WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW TRACKS UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY WAS COMPLETED FRIDAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEW POINTS ARE
ALREADY WELL ABOVE 32 THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT
AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH
AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN AS
EARLY AS THIS EVENING....SO HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST THREAT IS
ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS FROM THIS
WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...
CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR
FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS
CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND
SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ019-085.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
         EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 230936
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
436 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS MORNING THEN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE RAINY
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 415 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING PRIMARILY EAST OF I81
WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS JUST RAIN SINCE TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL
ABOVE FREEZING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE LESS WEST AND LITTLE MORE EAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH T85 AROUND 10/12C WILL BRING
TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORDS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, LAKE PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THE TRAILING SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH FROPA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL END
BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST
OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TUE
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WED-WED NIGHT...BUT MUCH HAS TO BE DETERMINED ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT THE ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE WAVE...IS STILL IN THE
POORLY-SAMPLED OPEN PACIFIC. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AS THE STREAK OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE OF OREGON...EXTENDING
WELL WESTWARD. AS THE WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA-NEVADA
LATER TODAY TO AROUND FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO MONDAY...BETTER SAMPLING
SHOULD HELP BRING MORE STABILITY TO MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH RIGHT
NOW EXHIBIT A LOT OF SPREAD.

00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK...YET HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST STABLE RUN-TO-RUN...AND IT IMPACTS A FAIR CHUNK OF
OUR AREA WITHIN ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IT FEATURES A SURFACE
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY...WHICH RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BETTER PHASING OCCURS /COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS/ BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND
WEAKER...BARELY SKIMMING BY...WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO
WEAKER AND EVEN FARTHER OUT TO SEA /BUT CLOSER TO OUR REGION THAN
IT HAS BEEN/. HOWEVER...GFS- CANADIAN HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT RUN-
TO- RUN. 18Z GFS FOR EXAMPLE WAS ACTUALLY DEEPER AND IMPACTING
MORE OF OUR AREA...BEFORE JOGGING EAST AGAIN WITH 00Z RUN. BOTH
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. ONE POINT OF AGREEMENT IN ALL MODELS...IS THAT IF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES US...925-850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY /IF NOT ALL/ SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.

00Z WPC GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-81. WHILE NOT USING IT VERBATIM...I HAVE ADJUSTED
TOWARDS ITS DIRECTION...RESPECTING STABILITY OF ECMWF AND THE
TREND OF GFS-CANADIAN /TO VARYING DEGREES/ TO ALSO BRING SYSTEM
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THUS PROSPECTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE GOING
UP FOR WED-WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY UP THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS. ANYONE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BECOME CLEARER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL REINFORCE POLAR AIR
AND MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHEASTERN
ONONDAGA INTO NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA.

MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN STATES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LLWS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ABOUT 10Z WITH A 240-260 DEG FLOW
BETWEEN 40-48 KTS AT 2000 FEET...EXCEPTION IS LLWS PERSISTING TO
15Z KRME DUE TO OPPOSITION OF FLOW AT 2KFT TO LOCALIZED ESE VALLEY
WIND AT SURFACE. UNFORTUNATELY...ENHANCED JET FROM A STRONGLY
FORCED WAVE APPEARS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP LLWS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD ALSO...BUT IN BETWEEN DURING THE DAYTIME...NO LLWS AND
LIGHT SW TO SE WINDS...BACKING WITH TIME. AS FOR CLOUDS ...KSYR-
KRME WILL HOLD ONTO HIGH END MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING...SCT
-SHRA AS WELL INITIALLY...AND EVEN A BIT INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING MAINLY VFR UNTIL TOWARDS END OF TAF
PERIOD WHEN FUEL ALT REQ MVFR CIG DEVELOPS KAVP-KELM-KITH-KBGM
ALONG WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING 04Z-06Z MON.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN/FOG MAINLY MON MORNING...THEN SHRA
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING. TIMES OF POSSIBLE LLWS AS WELL.

TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT COASTAL SYSTEM MAY SKIM AT
LEAST KAVP WITH -SN LATE WED-EARLY THU.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/MDP
AVIATION...MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 230936
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
436 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS MORNING THEN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE RAINY
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 415 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING PRIMARILY EAST OF I81
WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS JUST RAIN SINCE TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL
ABOVE FREEZING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE LESS WEST AND LITTLE MORE EAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH T85 AROUND 10/12C WILL BRING
TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORDS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, LAKE PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THE TRAILING SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH FROPA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL END
BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST
OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TUE
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WED-WED NIGHT...BUT MUCH HAS TO BE DETERMINED ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT THE ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE WAVE...IS STILL IN THE
POORLY-SAMPLED OPEN PACIFIC. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AS THE STREAK OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE OF OREGON...EXTENDING
WELL WESTWARD. AS THE WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA-NEVADA
LATER TODAY TO AROUND FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO MONDAY...BETTER SAMPLING
SHOULD HELP BRING MORE STABILITY TO MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH RIGHT
NOW EXHIBIT A LOT OF SPREAD.

00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK...YET HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST STABLE RUN-TO-RUN...AND IT IMPACTS A FAIR CHUNK OF
OUR AREA WITHIN ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IT FEATURES A SURFACE
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY...WHICH RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BETTER PHASING OCCURS /COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS/ BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND
WEAKER...BARELY SKIMMING BY...WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO
WEAKER AND EVEN FARTHER OUT TO SEA /BUT CLOSER TO OUR REGION THAN
IT HAS BEEN/. HOWEVER...GFS- CANADIAN HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT RUN-
TO- RUN. 18Z GFS FOR EXAMPLE WAS ACTUALLY DEEPER AND IMPACTING
MORE OF OUR AREA...BEFORE JOGGING EAST AGAIN WITH 00Z RUN. BOTH
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. ONE POINT OF AGREEMENT IN ALL MODELS...IS THAT IF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES US...925-850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY /IF NOT ALL/ SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.

00Z WPC GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-81. WHILE NOT USING IT VERBATIM...I HAVE ADJUSTED
TOWARDS ITS DIRECTION...RESPECTING STABILITY OF ECMWF AND THE
TREND OF GFS-CANADIAN /TO VARYING DEGREES/ TO ALSO BRING SYSTEM
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THUS PROSPECTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE GOING
UP FOR WED-WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY UP THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS. ANYONE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BECOME CLEARER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL REINFORCE POLAR AIR
AND MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHEASTERN
ONONDAGA INTO NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA.

MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN STATES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LLWS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ABOUT 10Z WITH A 240-260 DEG FLOW
BETWEEN 40-48 KTS AT 2000 FEET...EXCEPTION IS LLWS PERSISTING TO
15Z KRME DUE TO OPPOSITION OF FLOW AT 2KFT TO LOCALIZED ESE VALLEY
WIND AT SURFACE. UNFORTUNATELY...ENHANCED JET FROM A STRONGLY
FORCED WAVE APPEARS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP LLWS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD ALSO...BUT IN BETWEEN DURING THE DAYTIME...NO LLWS AND
LIGHT SW TO SE WINDS...BACKING WITH TIME. AS FOR CLOUDS ...KSYR-
KRME WILL HOLD ONTO HIGH END MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING...SCT
-SHRA AS WELL INITIALLY...AND EVEN A BIT INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING MAINLY VFR UNTIL TOWARDS END OF TAF
PERIOD WHEN FUEL ALT REQ MVFR CIG DEVELOPS KAVP-KELM-KITH-KBGM
ALONG WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING 04Z-06Z MON.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN/FOG MAINLY MON MORNING...THEN SHRA
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING. TIMES OF POSSIBLE LLWS AS WELL.

TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT COASTAL SYSTEM MAY SKIM AT
LEAST KAVP WITH -SN LATE WED-EARLY THU.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/MDP
AVIATION...MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 230936
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
436 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS MORNING THEN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE RAINY
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 415 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING PRIMARILY EAST OF I81
WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS JUST RAIN SINCE TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL
ABOVE FREEZING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE LESS WEST AND LITTLE MORE EAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH T85 AROUND 10/12C WILL BRING
TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORDS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, LAKE PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THE TRAILING SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH FROPA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL END
BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST
OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TUE
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WED-WED NIGHT...BUT MUCH HAS TO BE DETERMINED ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT THE ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE WAVE...IS STILL IN THE
POORLY-SAMPLED OPEN PACIFIC. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AS THE STREAK OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE OF OREGON...EXTENDING
WELL WESTWARD. AS THE WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA-NEVADA
LATER TODAY TO AROUND FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO MONDAY...BETTER SAMPLING
SHOULD HELP BRING MORE STABILITY TO MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH RIGHT
NOW EXHIBIT A LOT OF SPREAD.

00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK...YET HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST STABLE RUN-TO-RUN...AND IT IMPACTS A FAIR CHUNK OF
OUR AREA WITHIN ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IT FEATURES A SURFACE
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY...WHICH RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BETTER PHASING OCCURS /COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS/ BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND
WEAKER...BARELY SKIMMING BY...WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO
WEAKER AND EVEN FARTHER OUT TO SEA /BUT CLOSER TO OUR REGION THAN
IT HAS BEEN/. HOWEVER...GFS- CANADIAN HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT RUN-
TO- RUN. 18Z GFS FOR EXAMPLE WAS ACTUALLY DEEPER AND IMPACTING
MORE OF OUR AREA...BEFORE JOGGING EAST AGAIN WITH 00Z RUN. BOTH
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. ONE POINT OF AGREEMENT IN ALL MODELS...IS THAT IF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES US...925-850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY /IF NOT ALL/ SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.

00Z WPC GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-81. WHILE NOT USING IT VERBATIM...I HAVE ADJUSTED
TOWARDS ITS DIRECTION...RESPECTING STABILITY OF ECMWF AND THE
TREND OF GFS-CANADIAN /TO VARYING DEGREES/ TO ALSO BRING SYSTEM
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THUS PROSPECTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE GOING
UP FOR WED-WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY UP THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS. ANYONE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BECOME CLEARER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL REINFORCE POLAR AIR
AND MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHEASTERN
ONONDAGA INTO NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA.

MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN STATES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LLWS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ABOUT 10Z WITH A 240-260 DEG FLOW
BETWEEN 40-48 KTS AT 2000 FEET...EXCEPTION IS LLWS PERSISTING TO
15Z KRME DUE TO OPPOSITION OF FLOW AT 2KFT TO LOCALIZED ESE VALLEY
WIND AT SURFACE. UNFORTUNATELY...ENHANCED JET FROM A STRONGLY
FORCED WAVE APPEARS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP LLWS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD ALSO...BUT IN BETWEEN DURING THE DAYTIME...NO LLWS AND
LIGHT SW TO SE WINDS...BACKING WITH TIME. AS FOR CLOUDS ...KSYR-
KRME WILL HOLD ONTO HIGH END MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING...SCT
-SHRA AS WELL INITIALLY...AND EVEN A BIT INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING MAINLY VFR UNTIL TOWARDS END OF TAF
PERIOD WHEN FUEL ALT REQ MVFR CIG DEVELOPS KAVP-KELM-KITH-KBGM
ALONG WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING 04Z-06Z MON.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN/FOG MAINLY MON MORNING...THEN SHRA
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING. TIMES OF POSSIBLE LLWS AS WELL.

TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT COASTAL SYSTEM MAY SKIM AT
LEAST KAVP WITH -SN LATE WED-EARLY THU.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/MDP
AVIATION...MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 230936
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
436 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS MORNING THEN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE RAINY
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 415 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING PRIMARILY EAST OF I81
WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS JUST RAIN SINCE TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL
ABOVE FREEZING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE LESS WEST AND LITTLE MORE EAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH T85 AROUND 10/12C WILL BRING
TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORDS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, LAKE PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THE TRAILING SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH FROPA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL END
BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST
OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TUE
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WED-WED NIGHT...BUT MUCH HAS TO BE DETERMINED ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT THE ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE WAVE...IS STILL IN THE
POORLY-SAMPLED OPEN PACIFIC. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AS THE STREAK OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE OF OREGON...EXTENDING
WELL WESTWARD. AS THE WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA-NEVADA
LATER TODAY TO AROUND FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO MONDAY...BETTER SAMPLING
SHOULD HELP BRING MORE STABILITY TO MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH RIGHT
NOW EXHIBIT A LOT OF SPREAD.

00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK...YET HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST STABLE RUN-TO-RUN...AND IT IMPACTS A FAIR CHUNK OF
OUR AREA WITHIN ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IT FEATURES A SURFACE
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY...WHICH RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BETTER PHASING OCCURS /COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS/ BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND
WEAKER...BARELY SKIMMING BY...WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO
WEAKER AND EVEN FARTHER OUT TO SEA /BUT CLOSER TO OUR REGION THAN
IT HAS BEEN/. HOWEVER...GFS- CANADIAN HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT RUN-
TO- RUN. 18Z GFS FOR EXAMPLE WAS ACTUALLY DEEPER AND IMPACTING
MORE OF OUR AREA...BEFORE JOGGING EAST AGAIN WITH 00Z RUN. BOTH
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. ONE POINT OF AGREEMENT IN ALL MODELS...IS THAT IF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES US...925-850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY /IF NOT ALL/ SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.

00Z WPC GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-81. WHILE NOT USING IT VERBATIM...I HAVE ADJUSTED
TOWARDS ITS DIRECTION...RESPECTING STABILITY OF ECMWF AND THE
TREND OF GFS-CANADIAN /TO VARYING DEGREES/ TO ALSO BRING SYSTEM
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THUS PROSPECTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE GOING
UP FOR WED-WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY UP THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS. ANYONE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BECOME CLEARER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL REINFORCE POLAR AIR
AND MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHEASTERN
ONONDAGA INTO NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA.

MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN STATES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LLWS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ABOUT 10Z WITH A 240-260 DEG FLOW
BETWEEN 40-48 KTS AT 2000 FEET...EXCEPTION IS LLWS PERSISTING TO
15Z KRME DUE TO OPPOSITION OF FLOW AT 2KFT TO LOCALIZED ESE VALLEY
WIND AT SURFACE. UNFORTUNATELY...ENHANCED JET FROM A STRONGLY
FORCED WAVE APPEARS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP LLWS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD ALSO...BUT IN BETWEEN DURING THE DAYTIME...NO LLWS AND
LIGHT SW TO SE WINDS...BACKING WITH TIME. AS FOR CLOUDS ...KSYR-
KRME WILL HOLD ONTO HIGH END MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING...SCT
-SHRA AS WELL INITIALLY...AND EVEN A BIT INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING MAINLY VFR UNTIL TOWARDS END OF TAF
PERIOD WHEN FUEL ALT REQ MVFR CIG DEVELOPS KAVP-KELM-KITH-KBGM
ALONG WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING 04Z-06Z MON.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN/FOG MAINLY MON MORNING...THEN SHRA
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING. TIMES OF POSSIBLE LLWS AS WELL.

TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT COASTAL SYSTEM MAY SKIM AT
LEAST KAVP WITH -SN LATE WED-EARLY THU.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/MDP
AVIATION...MDP






000
FXUS61 KOKX 230934
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
434 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PASSES ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY MORNING...TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENTLY SEE NO EVIDENCE IN THE OBSERVATIONS THAT SPOTTY
RELATIVELY WEAK RADAR RETURNS CLIPPING FAR N PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK 500-700 HPA SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE N
EARLY THIS MORNING...ARE PRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS
MORNING BASED ON SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS. BASED ON THIS HAVE GONE
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM. EVEN IF A
SPRINKLE DID OCCUR...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AT AREA ASOS
AND MESO-NET SITES THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY. WILL
SEE DECREASING CLOUD COVER IN RESPONSE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WITH AREAS PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO QUICKLY BUILD IN
BEHIND IT. WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AND PASSAGE OF A
60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECT MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY...RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE-850 HPA WARM FRONT.

THERE IS SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN ZONES...WITH
SHOWALTERS FORECAST TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2...ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THAT HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TO -SHRA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONTS LIFT TO THE NE. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF
THE AFD FOR DETAILS ON AMOUNTS AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

ALSO WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN ANY EMBEDDED
CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER EASTERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING - AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE 100
PERCENT RULED OUT. IT SHOULD END UP QUITE WINDY ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH.
ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THERE
OCCURRENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT THE LOWS TO OCCUR IN THE
EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 50S
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT MID-UPPER 40S FAR NW ORANGE COUNTY.

RECORD HIGHS QUITE POSSIBLY WILL BE SET ON MONDAY AT MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE REGION SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR ONCE
THERE. FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HIGHS
AROUND 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SEE AN ISOLD-SCT SHRA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. THEN CLEARING IN ITS WAKE.
FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SW FLOW ALOFT...AND AS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE ABSENT ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...IT SHOULD BE DRY.
FOR HIGHS USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT NOW THE
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY SUPPORTING THE GFS (THOUGH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FARTHER W). WITH THE GFS AND CMC TRENDING
STRONGER (AROUND 10 MB DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT) AND FARTHER
WEST...HAVE OPTED TO USE A ECMWF/GFS BLEND AS THERE IS INCREASING
EVIDENCE THAT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE TWO SEEMS THE MOST
REASONABLE.

UNTIL ALL THE KEY PLAYERS...INCLUDING ENERGY STILL OUT OVER THE
PACIFIC ARE RESOLVED...THE EXACT NATURE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE E
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN - SO
THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SOME DEGREE. FOR NOW THOUGH THE
FOLLOWING IS WHAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY - THAT A FAIRLY DECENT...BUT
NOT OVERLY STRONG LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE BLEND WOULD SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN COULD REACH LONG ISLAND
AND MAYBE FAR SE CT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN SPREAD NW FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW INLAND
BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN. AS THE LOW NEARS THE BENCHMARK
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD COME IN
BEHIND IT TO CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FROM NW TO SE...THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THIS IS UNCERTAIN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
THURSDAY MORNING...UNLESS THE DEFORMATION AXIS LINGERS OVER THE
AREA...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF. FOR THIS REASON JUST WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

THE ECMWF TAKEN BY ITSELF WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING
LEVEL SNOWS TO THE W/N OF NYC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FARTHER EAST. GIVEN
THIS...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE OF REACHING WARNING LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CWA...SO WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
HWO. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST...IF NOT ALL...ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THE IMPACT ON THE BULK
OF PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL SHOULD BE MINIMIZED.

ZONAL THEN SW FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO FRIDAY...THEN A
WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES TO THE N ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR CAPE COD. BASED ON THIS HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVER EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE CLIPPER ITSELF LIKELY PASSING TO FAR N TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION BY ITSELF UNTIL THE COASTAL LOW FORMS.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND GFS AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03Z MONDAY.

SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 10 KT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT POSSIBLE SEA BREEZES AT KHPN TO KGON
WITH LI SOUND TEMPS IN THE 40S. THIS WOULD BACK WINDS TO AROUND 170
TRUE AFT 17Z. WINDS WILL OTHERWISE BACK TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS EVENING.

CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BETWEEN 03-06Z MONDAY AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TONIGHT-MONDAY...IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN/FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE WITH 50-65
KT WINDS 1500-2000 FT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MID-MORNING.
HIGHEST EAST. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH 20-35 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15
KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WEDS NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL ALLOW SCA TO CONTINUE AS POSTED EARLIER...BUT ON THE OCEAN...
SEAS MIGHT TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO PAST THE SCA END TIME TO FALL
BELOW 5 FT. A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD OTHERWISE FOLLOWS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PIVOTS
THROUGH.

WINDS PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 950MB LOW
LEVEL JET OF 60-70KT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A GALE WARNING FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE LONG ISLAND
BAYS LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCA FOR THE OTHER
WATERS DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS STILL
PROBABLE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER THAN THIS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT. LOOKS
LIKE BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL WATERS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THE NEXT STORM AFFECTS THE WATERS LATE WEDS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURS WITH A COASTAL STORM PASSING NEARBY THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
WEDS NIGHT. FOR NOW...SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GALES. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LOCALLY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT BEING TO
SLOW THE COMMUTE DUE TO WET ROADS.

THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OR MORE OF QPF TO FALL
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY ANY IMPACT...OTHER THAN TO NOTE
THAT SOME PORTION OF THIS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MORE THAN 1/2 INCH
OF QPF WOULD BE OVER LONG ISLAND AND S CT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ335-
     338.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-340-345-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...MALOIT





000
FXUS61 KOKX 230934
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
434 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PASSES ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY MORNING...TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENTLY SEE NO EVIDENCE IN THE OBSERVATIONS THAT SPOTTY
RELATIVELY WEAK RADAR RETURNS CLIPPING FAR N PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK 500-700 HPA SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE N
EARLY THIS MORNING...ARE PRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS
MORNING BASED ON SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS. BASED ON THIS HAVE GONE
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM. EVEN IF A
SPRINKLE DID OCCUR...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AT AREA ASOS
AND MESO-NET SITES THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY. WILL
SEE DECREASING CLOUD COVER IN RESPONSE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WITH AREAS PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO QUICKLY BUILD IN
BEHIND IT. WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AND PASSAGE OF A
60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECT MODERATE...TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY...RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE-850 HPA WARM FRONT.

THERE IS SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN ZONES...WITH
SHOWALTERS FORECAST TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2...ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THAT HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TO -SHRA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONTS LIFT TO THE NE. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF
THE AFD FOR DETAILS ON AMOUNTS AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

ALSO WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN ANY EMBEDDED
CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER EASTERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING - AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE 100
PERCENT RULED OUT. IT SHOULD END UP QUITE WINDY ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH.
ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THERE
OCCURRENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT THE LOWS TO OCCUR IN THE
EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 50S
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT MID-UPPER 40S FAR NW ORANGE COUNTY.

RECORD HIGHS QUITE POSSIBLY WILL BE SET ON MONDAY AT MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE REGION SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR ONCE
THERE. FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HIGHS
AROUND 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND
OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SEE AN ISOLD-SCT SHRA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. THEN CLEARING IN ITS WAKE.
FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SW FLOW ALOFT...AND AS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE ABSENT ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...IT SHOULD BE DRY.
FOR HIGHS USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT NOW THE
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY SUPPORTING THE GFS (THOUGH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FARTHER W). WITH THE GFS AND CMC TRENDING
STRONGER (AROUND 10 MB DEEPER THAN LAST NIGHT) AND FARTHER
WEST...HAVE OPTED TO USE A ECMWF/GFS BLEND AS THERE IS INCREASING
EVIDENCE THAT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE TWO SEEMS THE MOST
REASONABLE.

UNTIL ALL THE KEY PLAYERS...INCLUDING ENERGY STILL OUT OVER THE
PACIFIC ARE RESOLVED...THE EXACT NATURE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE E
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN - SO
THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SOME DEGREE. FOR NOW THOUGH THE
FOLLOWING IS WHAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY - THAT A FAIRLY DECENT...BUT
NOT OVERLY STRONG LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE BLEND WOULD SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN COULD REACH LONG ISLAND
AND MAYBE FAR SE CT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN SPREAD NW FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW INLAND
BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN. AS THE LOW NEARS THE BENCHMARK
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD COME IN
BEHIND IT TO CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FROM NW TO SE...THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THIS IS UNCERTAIN. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
THURSDAY MORNING...UNLESS THE DEFORMATION AXIS LINGERS OVER THE
AREA...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF. FOR THIS REASON JUST WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

THE ECMWF TAKEN BY ITSELF WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING
LEVEL SNOWS TO THE W/N OF NYC...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FARTHER EAST. GIVEN
THIS...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE OF REACHING WARNING LEVEL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CWA...SO WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
HWO. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST...IF NOT ALL...ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THE IMPACT ON THE BULK
OF PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL SHOULD BE MINIMIZED.

ZONAL THEN SW FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO FRIDAY...THEN A
WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES TO THE N ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO COASTAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR CAPE COD. BASED ON THIS HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVER EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE CLIPPER ITSELF LIKELY PASSING TO FAR N TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION BY ITSELF UNTIL THE COASTAL LOW FORMS.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND GFS AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES BLENDED IN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03Z MONDAY.

SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 10 KT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT POSSIBLE SEA BREEZES AT KHPN TO KGON
WITH LI SOUND TEMPS IN THE 40S. THIS WOULD BACK WINDS TO AROUND 170
TRUE AFT 17Z. WINDS WILL OTHERWISE BACK TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS EVENING.

CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BETWEEN 03-06Z MONDAY AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TONIGHT-MONDAY...IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN/FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE WITH 50-65
KT WINDS 1500-2000 FT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MID-MORNING.
HIGHEST EAST. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH 20-35 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15
KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WEDS NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL ALLOW SCA TO CONTINUE AS POSTED EARLIER...BUT ON THE OCEAN...
SEAS MIGHT TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO PAST THE SCA END TIME TO FALL
BELOW 5 FT. A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD OTHERWISE FOLLOWS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PIVOTS
THROUGH.

WINDS PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 950MB LOW
LEVEL JET OF 60-70KT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A GALE WARNING FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE LONG ISLAND
BAYS LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCA FOR THE OTHER
WATERS DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS STILL
PROBABLE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER THAN THIS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT. LOOKS
LIKE BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL WATERS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THE NEXT STORM AFFECTS THE WATERS LATE WEDS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURS WITH A COASTAL STORM PASSING NEARBY THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
WEDS NIGHT. FOR NOW...SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GALES. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LOCALLY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT BEING TO
SLOW THE COMMUTE DUE TO WET ROADS.

THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH OR MORE OF QPF TO FALL
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY ANY IMPACT...OTHER THAN TO NOTE
THAT SOME PORTION OF THIS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MORE THAN 1/2 INCH
OF QPF WOULD BE OVER LONG ISLAND AND S CT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ335-
     338.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-340-345-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KALY 230916
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...ENDING THE RAIN...AND ALLOWING
FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EST...RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE
LAST AREA OF SHOWERS IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TUG HILL
REGION...AND MOVING EAST VERY RAPIDLY. WE EXPECT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS TO TAPER OFF FROM W TO E BETWEEN 5
AND 7 AM.

FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...BEFORE ENDING.

AFTER THE SHOWERS END...WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...IF NOT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FURTHER S AND E...WE
EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
A FEW PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE LEAST CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT
NOT MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF
-RAPL IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME
-RA AROUND AFT 06Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS PSBL TIL ARND 10Z.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 230916
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...ENDING THE RAIN...AND ALLOWING
FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EST...RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE
LAST AREA OF SHOWERS IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TUG HILL
REGION...AND MOVING EAST VERY RAPIDLY. WE EXPECT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS TO TAPER OFF FROM W TO E BETWEEN 5
AND 7 AM.

FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...BEFORE ENDING.

AFTER THE SHOWERS END...WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...IF NOT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FURTHER S AND E...WE
EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
A FEW PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE LEAST CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT
NOT MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF
-RAPL IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME
-RA AROUND AFT 06Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS PSBL TIL ARND 10Z.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 230859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS AT KSLK AND KMSS IN AREAS
OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH 14Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. CIGS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR, THEN BECOME VFR AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN
MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 230859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS AT KSLK AND KMSS IN AREAS
OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH 14Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. CIGS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR, THEN BECOME VFR AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN
MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 230859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS AT KSLK AND KMSS IN AREAS
OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH 14Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. CIGS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR, THEN BECOME VFR AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN
MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 230859
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS AT KSLK AND KMSS IN AREAS
OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH 14Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. CIGS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR, THEN BECOME VFR AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN
MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 230856
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KSLK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...



000
FXUS61 KBTV 230856
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KSLK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...



000
FXUS61 KBTV 230856
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KSLK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...



000
FXUS61 KBTV 230856
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING COMING TO AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 6-12 KTS. MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE
MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KSLK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...



000
FXUS61 KBGM 230831
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
331 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. SUNDAY WILL
BE MAINLY DRY AND MILDER. AFTER A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT...MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
934 PM UPDATE...
DROPPED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY BASED ON CALLS TO LOCAL DOTS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE MESONET SITES ARE STILL CLOSE
TO FREEZING. DUE TO SUCH COLD WEATHER THE PAST WEEK I WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO STILL SEE SOME LIGHT ICING IN SOME ISOLATED SPOTS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT, ESPECIALLY OUR NORMALLY COLDER SECTIONS SUCH AS
SECONDARY ROADS, SIDEWALKS, AND SHADY SPOTS. SINCE THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD, WE WILL COVER THAT WITH AN SPS. UP
ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR PLAIN RAIN HERE.


410 PM UPDATE...
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR LOCALES STILL HOLDING TUFF
ONTO FRZG TEMPS, NAMELY SUSQUEHANNA CNTY AND NRN WAYNE CNTY AS
ROADWAYS ARE SLIPPERY MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS ARE OCCURRING PER
PENNDOT. RMNDR OF SITES HV CLIMBED WELL ABV FRZG BUT COLD AIR
SEEMS TO BE LOCKED INTO THESE AREAS. STILL SEEING PATCHY DRIZZLE
IN THESE AREAS AS WV DEPARTS TO THE EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

215 PM UPDATE... WE`VE EXPANDED THE FRZG RAIN ADVSY TO INCLUDE A
NUMBER OF OUR FAR ERN ZNS (ALL OF ONEIDA...OTSEGO...DELAWARE...AND
SULLIVAN CNTYS).

PATCHY LGT PCPN IS OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE RGN LATE THIS
AFTN...WITH PCPN LIKELY TO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT ACRS OUR NRN AND
ERN ZNS THIS EVE...AS ANOTHER S/WV ZIPS THROUGH THE AREA...AND
ENHANCES LIFT ASSOCD WITH WAA FORCING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT TEMPS
ALOFT WILL WARM AT A SUFFICIENT RATE TO PRECLUDE MOST PTYPS...OTHER
THAN PRIMARILY RAIN OR FRZG RAIN. AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE...LOW-
LVL COLD AIR WILL BE HARDEST TO DISLODGE IN THE SRN TUG HILL
RGN...OTSEGO CNTY...AND THE WRN CATSKILLS...HENCE THE ADVSY FOR
THIS RGN. WE STILL EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL HOVER NEAR OR JUST BLO
THE FRZG MARK THIS EVE OVER SXNS OF THE POCONOS IN NE PA.
HOWEVER...PCPN WILL BE MUCH LGTR/MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE OVER THIS
AREA...SO THAT IS WHY NO ADVSYS HAVE BEEN POSTED. ACRS THE REST
OF THE FA...TEMPS WILL BE FAR ENUF ABV 32F...AND/OR PCPN WILL BE
LGT ENUF...SO AS TO PREVENT ANY REAL ISSUES WITH ICING.

-RA/-FZRA IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE AFTER 06-09Z...AS THE ABV
MENTIONED S/WV LIFTS TO OFF OUR NE...AND WE`RE JUST LEFT WITH A
BROAD SW FLOW PATN...AND NO REAL TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR PCPN.

TEMPS WILL EXHIBIT A NON-DIURNAL TREND OVERNIGHT...RISING SLOWLY
WITH TIME. MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE CAPTURED THIS NICELY...AND
WE USED A BLEND OF OUR PREV FCST...AS WELL AS ADJLAV AND HI-RES
WRF VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM UPDATE... MUCH OF SUN STILL LOOKS PCPN-FREE FROM THIS
VANTAGE PT...AS CNY/NE PA RESIDE IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES. DESPITE ONLY
LIMITED SUNSHINE (LINGERING MRNG CLDS...PLUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AGN FROM THE S AND SW BY LATE AFTN)...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S-LWR 50S.

SUN NGT LOOKS WET...AS THE SFC-850 MB WARM FRNTL BNDRYS LIFT NWD
THROUGH THE RGN...ASSOCD WITH A DEEPENING CYCLONE MOVG UP INTO THE
NRN LKS RGN. THUS...POPS REMAIN IN THE LIKELY-CAT RANGES.

ALTHOUGH A FEW SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...WE`LL PROBABLY HAVE A RELATIVE
LULL AGN FOR MOST OF MON...WITH CNY/NE PA SOLIDLY IN A WARM SECTOR
TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT. IN FACT...READINGS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM...WITH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 60S FOR A GOOD PTN OF THE AREA MON AFTN.

AN OCCLUDED/COLD FRNT TIED TO THE ABV MENTIONED SFC CYCLONE IS
PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA MON EVE...WITH AT LEAST SCTD
SHWRS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. SOME OF OUR MODEL
SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE DVLPMT OF MARGINAL INSTAB LATE MON (SB CAPES
OF 300-600 J/KG...SPCLY OVER NE PA). IF THIS WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...THIS SITN WOULD HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A
PSBL COOL SEASON LOW CAPE-HIGH SHEAR TYPE OF EVENT...GIVEN THE
PROGGED 0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES. AT THIS EARLY
JUNCTURE...WE DO NOT YET HAVE ANY THUNDER MENTIONED IN THE FCST.

LTR MON NGT AND TUE...A CAA REGIME WILL BE WITH US AGN...ON A WSWLY
FLOW PATN. SINCE THIS TRAJ IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR OUR CWA...AND ALSO
THE INCOMING AMS IS NOT THAT COLD INITIALLY...LES IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL OR NONE AT ALL THROUGH TUE. AS A MATTER OF FACT...BLYR
TEMPS ONLY APPEAR TO SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX ON TUE...WITH TEMPS
STILL IN THE 30S OR LWR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WED-WED NIGHT...BUT MUCH HAS TO BE DETERMINED ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT THE ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE WAVE...IS STILL IN THE
POORLY-SAMPLED OPEN PACIFIC. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AS THE STREAK OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE OF OREGON...EXTENDING
WELL WESTWARD. AS THE WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA-NEVADA
LATER TODAY TO AROUND FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO MONDAY...BETTER SAMPLING
SHOULD HELP BRING MORE STABILITY TO MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH RIGHT
NOW EXHIBIT A LOT OF SPREAD.

00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK...YET HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST STABLE RUN-TO-RUN...AND IT IMPACTS A FAIR CHUNK OF
OUR AREA WITHIN ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IT FEATURES A SURFACE
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY...WHICH RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BETTER PHASING OCCURS /COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS/ BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND
WEAKER...BARELY SKIMMING BY...WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO
WEAKER AND EVEN FARTHER OUT TO SEA /BUT CLOSER TO OUR REGION THAN
IT HAS BEEN/. HOWEVER...GFS- CANADIAN HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT RUN-
TO- RUN. 18Z GFS FOR EXAMPLE WAS ACTUALLY DEEPER AND IMPACTING
MORE OF OUR AREA...BEFORE JOGGING EAST AGAIN WITH 00Z RUN. BOTH
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. ONE POINT OF AGREEMENT IN ALL MODELS...IS THAT IF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES US...925-850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY /IF NOT ALL/ SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.

00Z WPC GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-81. WHILE NOT USING IT VERBATIM...I HAVE ADJUSTED
TOWARDS ITS DIRECTION...RESPECTING STABILITY OF ECMWF AND THE
TREND OF GFS-CANADIAN /TO VARYING DEGREES/ TO ALSO BRING SYSTEM
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THUS PROSPECTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE GOING
UP FOR WED-WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY UP THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS. ANYONE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BECOME CLEARER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL REINFORCE POLAR AIR
AND MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHEASTERN
ONONDAGA INTO NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA.

MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN STATES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LLWS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ABOUT 10Z WITH A 240-260 DEG FLOW
BETWEEN 40-48 KTS AT 2000 FEET...EXCEPTION IS LLWS PERSISTING TO
15Z KRME DUE TO OPPOSITION OF FLOW AT 2KFT TO LOCALIZED ESE VALLEY
WIND AT SURFACE. UNFORTUNATELY...ENHANCED JET FROM A STRONGLY
FORCED WAVE APPEARS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP LLWS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD ALSO...BUT IN BETWEEN DURING THE DAYTIME...NO LLWS AND
LIGHT SW TO SE WINDS...BACKING WITH TIME. AS FOR CLOUDS ...KSYR-
KRME WILL HOLD ONTO HIGH END MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING...SCT
-SHRA AS WELL INITIALLY...AND EVEN A BIT INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING MAINLY VFR UNTIL TOWARDS END OF TAF
PERIOD WHEN FUEL ALT REQ MVFR CIG DEVELOPS KAVP-KELM-KITH-KBGM
ALONG WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING 04Z-06Z MON.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN/FOG MAINLY MON MORNING...THEN SHRA
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING. TIMES OF POSSIBLE LLWS AS WELL.

TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT COASTAL SYSTEM MAY SKIM AT
LEAST KAVP WITH -SN LATE WED-EARLY THU.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ009-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ/PVF
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP/MDP
AVIATION...MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 230831
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
331 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. SUNDAY WILL
BE MAINLY DRY AND MILDER. AFTER A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT...MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
934 PM UPDATE...
DROPPED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY BASED ON CALLS TO LOCAL DOTS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE MESONET SITES ARE STILL CLOSE
TO FREEZING. DUE TO SUCH COLD WEATHER THE PAST WEEK I WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO STILL SEE SOME LIGHT ICING IN SOME ISOLATED SPOTS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT, ESPECIALLY OUR NORMALLY COLDER SECTIONS SUCH AS
SECONDARY ROADS, SIDEWALKS, AND SHADY SPOTS. SINCE THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD, WE WILL COVER THAT WITH AN SPS. UP
ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR PLAIN RAIN HERE.


410 PM UPDATE...
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR LOCALES STILL HOLDING TUFF
ONTO FRZG TEMPS, NAMELY SUSQUEHANNA CNTY AND NRN WAYNE CNTY AS
ROADWAYS ARE SLIPPERY MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS ARE OCCURRING PER
PENNDOT. RMNDR OF SITES HV CLIMBED WELL ABV FRZG BUT COLD AIR
SEEMS TO BE LOCKED INTO THESE AREAS. STILL SEEING PATCHY DRIZZLE
IN THESE AREAS AS WV DEPARTS TO THE EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

215 PM UPDATE... WE`VE EXPANDED THE FRZG RAIN ADVSY TO INCLUDE A
NUMBER OF OUR FAR ERN ZNS (ALL OF ONEIDA...OTSEGO...DELAWARE...AND
SULLIVAN CNTYS).

PATCHY LGT PCPN IS OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE RGN LATE THIS
AFTN...WITH PCPN LIKELY TO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT ACRS OUR NRN AND
ERN ZNS THIS EVE...AS ANOTHER S/WV ZIPS THROUGH THE AREA...AND
ENHANCES LIFT ASSOCD WITH WAA FORCING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT TEMPS
ALOFT WILL WARM AT A SUFFICIENT RATE TO PRECLUDE MOST PTYPS...OTHER
THAN PRIMARILY RAIN OR FRZG RAIN. AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE...LOW-
LVL COLD AIR WILL BE HARDEST TO DISLODGE IN THE SRN TUG HILL
RGN...OTSEGO CNTY...AND THE WRN CATSKILLS...HENCE THE ADVSY FOR
THIS RGN. WE STILL EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL HOVER NEAR OR JUST BLO
THE FRZG MARK THIS EVE OVER SXNS OF THE POCONOS IN NE PA.
HOWEVER...PCPN WILL BE MUCH LGTR/MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE OVER THIS
AREA...SO THAT IS WHY NO ADVSYS HAVE BEEN POSTED. ACRS THE REST
OF THE FA...TEMPS WILL BE FAR ENUF ABV 32F...AND/OR PCPN WILL BE
LGT ENUF...SO AS TO PREVENT ANY REAL ISSUES WITH ICING.

-RA/-FZRA IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE AFTER 06-09Z...AS THE ABV
MENTIONED S/WV LIFTS TO OFF OUR NE...AND WE`RE JUST LEFT WITH A
BROAD SW FLOW PATN...AND NO REAL TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR PCPN.

TEMPS WILL EXHIBIT A NON-DIURNAL TREND OVERNIGHT...RISING SLOWLY
WITH TIME. MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE CAPTURED THIS NICELY...AND
WE USED A BLEND OF OUR PREV FCST...AS WELL AS ADJLAV AND HI-RES
WRF VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM UPDATE... MUCH OF SUN STILL LOOKS PCPN-FREE FROM THIS
VANTAGE PT...AS CNY/NE PA RESIDE IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES. DESPITE ONLY
LIMITED SUNSHINE (LINGERING MRNG CLDS...PLUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AGN FROM THE S AND SW BY LATE AFTN)...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S-LWR 50S.

SUN NGT LOOKS WET...AS THE SFC-850 MB WARM FRNTL BNDRYS LIFT NWD
THROUGH THE RGN...ASSOCD WITH A DEEPENING CYCLONE MOVG UP INTO THE
NRN LKS RGN. THUS...POPS REMAIN IN THE LIKELY-CAT RANGES.

ALTHOUGH A FEW SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...WE`LL PROBABLY HAVE A RELATIVE
LULL AGN FOR MOST OF MON...WITH CNY/NE PA SOLIDLY IN A WARM SECTOR
TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT. IN FACT...READINGS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM...WITH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 60S FOR A GOOD PTN OF THE AREA MON AFTN.

AN OCCLUDED/COLD FRNT TIED TO THE ABV MENTIONED SFC CYCLONE IS
PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA MON EVE...WITH AT LEAST SCTD
SHWRS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. SOME OF OUR MODEL
SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE DVLPMT OF MARGINAL INSTAB LATE MON (SB CAPES
OF 300-600 J/KG...SPCLY OVER NE PA). IF THIS WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...THIS SITN WOULD HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A
PSBL COOL SEASON LOW CAPE-HIGH SHEAR TYPE OF EVENT...GIVEN THE
PROGGED 0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES. AT THIS EARLY
JUNCTURE...WE DO NOT YET HAVE ANY THUNDER MENTIONED IN THE FCST.

LTR MON NGT AND TUE...A CAA REGIME WILL BE WITH US AGN...ON A WSWLY
FLOW PATN. SINCE THIS TRAJ IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR OUR CWA...AND ALSO
THE INCOMING AMS IS NOT THAT COLD INITIALLY...LES IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL OR NONE AT ALL THROUGH TUE. AS A MATTER OF FACT...BLYR
TEMPS ONLY APPEAR TO SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX ON TUE...WITH TEMPS
STILL IN THE 30S OR LWR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WED-WED NIGHT...BUT MUCH HAS TO BE DETERMINED ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT THE ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE WAVE...IS STILL IN THE
POORLY-SAMPLED OPEN PACIFIC. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AS THE STREAK OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE OF OREGON...EXTENDING
WELL WESTWARD. AS THE WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA-NEVADA
LATER TODAY TO AROUND FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO MONDAY...BETTER SAMPLING
SHOULD HELP BRING MORE STABILITY TO MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH RIGHT
NOW EXHIBIT A LOT OF SPREAD.

00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK...YET HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST STABLE RUN-TO-RUN...AND IT IMPACTS A FAIR CHUNK OF
OUR AREA WITHIN ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IT FEATURES A SURFACE
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY...WHICH RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BETTER PHASING OCCURS /COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS/ BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND
WEAKER...BARELY SKIMMING BY...WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO
WEAKER AND EVEN FARTHER OUT TO SEA /BUT CLOSER TO OUR REGION THAN
IT HAS BEEN/. HOWEVER...GFS- CANADIAN HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT RUN-
TO- RUN. 18Z GFS FOR EXAMPLE WAS ACTUALLY DEEPER AND IMPACTING
MORE OF OUR AREA...BEFORE JOGGING EAST AGAIN WITH 00Z RUN. BOTH
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. ONE POINT OF AGREEMENT IN ALL MODELS...IS THAT IF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES US...925-850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY /IF NOT ALL/ SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.

00Z WPC GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-81. WHILE NOT USING IT VERBATIM...I HAVE ADJUSTED
TOWARDS ITS DIRECTION...RESPECTING STABILITY OF ECMWF AND THE
TREND OF GFS-CANADIAN /TO VARYING DEGREES/ TO ALSO BRING SYSTEM
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THUS PROSPECTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE GOING
UP FOR WED-WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY UP THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS. ANYONE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BECOME CLEARER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL REINFORCE POLAR AIR
AND MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHEASTERN
ONONDAGA INTO NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA.

MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN STATES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LLWS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ABOUT 10Z WITH A 240-260 DEG FLOW
BETWEEN 40-48 KTS AT 2000 FEET...EXCEPTION IS LLWS PERSISTING TO
15Z KRME DUE TO OPPOSITION OF FLOW AT 2KFT TO LOCALIZED ESE VALLEY
WIND AT SURFACE. UNFORTUNATELY...ENHANCED JET FROM A STRONGLY
FORCED WAVE APPEARS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP LLWS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD ALSO...BUT IN BETWEEN DURING THE DAYTIME...NO LLWS AND
LIGHT SW TO SE WINDS...BACKING WITH TIME. AS FOR CLOUDS ...KSYR-
KRME WILL HOLD ONTO HIGH END MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING...SCT
-SHRA AS WELL INITIALLY...AND EVEN A BIT INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING MAINLY VFR UNTIL TOWARDS END OF TAF
PERIOD WHEN FUEL ALT REQ MVFR CIG DEVELOPS KAVP-KELM-KITH-KBGM
ALONG WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING 04Z-06Z MON.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN/FOG MAINLY MON MORNING...THEN SHRA
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING. TIMES OF POSSIBLE LLWS AS WELL.

TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT COASTAL SYSTEM MAY SKIM AT
LEAST KAVP WITH -SN LATE WED-EARLY THU.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ009-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ/PVF
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP/MDP
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBTV 230818
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
318 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST SUNDAY...INFLUX OF WARM AIR CONTINUES IN THE
MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW...WITH VAD WIND PROFILES SHOWING 850MB
WINDS AT 35-45KTS. TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION RANGE FROM MID 30S
TO LOW 40S. THERE ARE STILL SOME AREAS NEAR FREEZING SUCH AT THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS - TPK AT 32 DEGREES- AND PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. BEST POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIX/FREEZING
RAIN AND SOME VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
ISOLATED/SPOTTY AREAS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM, ESPECIALLY IN
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE S/SW FLOW CANNOT SCOUR OUT COLDER
AIR. THUS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE WHILE
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY FROM NRN NY EASTWARD INTO
VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KLSK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
MARINE...MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBGM 230559
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1259 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. SUNDAY WILL
BE MAINLY DRY AND MILDER. AFTER A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT...MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
934 PM UPDATE...
DROPPED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY BASED ON CALLS TO LOCAL DOTS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE MESONET SITES ARE STILL CLOSE
TO FREEZING. DUE TO SUCH COLD WEATHER THE PAST WEEK I WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO STILL SEE SOME LIGHT ICING IN SOME ISOLATED SPOTS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT, ESPECIALLY OUR NORMALLY COLDER SECTIONS SUCH AS
SECONDARY ROADS, SIDEWALKS, AND SHADY SPOTS. SINCE THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD, WE WILL COVER THAT WITH AN SPS. UP
ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR PLAIN RAIN HERE.


410 PM UPDATE...
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR LOCALES STILL HOLDING TUFF
ONTO FRZG TEMPS, NAMELY SUSQUEHANNA CNTY AND NRN WAYNE CNTY AS
ROADWAYS ARE SLIPPERY MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS ARE OCCURRING PER
PENNDOT. RMNDR OF SITES HV CLIMBED WELL ABV FRZG BUT COLD AIR
SEEMS TO BE LOCKED INTO THESE AREAS. STILL SEEING PATCHY DRIZZLE
IN THESE AREAS AS WV DEPARTS TO THE EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

215 PM UPDATE... WE`VE EXPANDED THE FRZG RAIN ADVSY TO INCLUDE A
NUMBER OF OUR FAR ERN ZNS (ALL OF ONEIDA...OTSEGO...DELAWARE...AND
SULLIVAN CNTYS).

PATCHY LGT PCPN IS OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE RGN LATE THIS
AFTN...WITH PCPN LIKELY TO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT ACRS OUR NRN AND
ERN ZNS THIS EVE...AS ANOTHER S/WV ZIPS THROUGH THE AREA...AND
ENHANCES LIFT ASSOCD WITH WAA FORCING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT TEMPS
ALOFT WILL WARM AT A SUFFICIENT RATE TO PRECLUDE MOST PTYPS...OTHER
THAN PRIMARILY RAIN OR FRZG RAIN. AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE...LOW-
LVL COLD AIR WILL BE HARDEST TO DISLODGE IN THE SRN TUG HILL
RGN...OTSEGO CNTY...AND THE WRN CATSKILLS...HENCE THE ADVSY FOR
THIS RGN. WE STILL EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL HOVER NEAR OR JUST BLO
THE FRZG MARK THIS EVE OVER SXNS OF THE POCONOS IN NE PA.
HOWEVER...PCPN WILL BE MUCH LGTR/MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE OVER THIS
AREA...SO THAT IS WHY NO ADVSYS HAVE BEEN POSTED. ACRS THE REST
OF THE FA...TEMPS WILL BE FAR ENUF ABV 32F...AND/OR PCPN WILL BE
LGT ENUF...SO AS TO PREVENT ANY REAL ISSUES WITH ICING.

-RA/-FZRA IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE AFTER 06-09Z...AS THE ABV
MENTIONED S/WV LIFTS TO OFF OUR NE...AND WE`RE JUST LEFT WITH A
BROAD SW FLOW PATN...AND NO REAL TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR PCPN.

TEMPS WILL EXHIBIT A NON-DIURNAL TREND OVERNIGHT...RISING SLOWLY
WITH TIME. MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE CAPTURED THIS NICELY...AND
WE USED A BLEND OF OUR PREV FCST...AS WELL AS ADJLAV AND HI-RES
WRF VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE... MUCH OF SUN STILL LOOKS PCPN-FREE FROM THIS
VANTAGE PT...AS CNY/NE PA RESIDE IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES. DESPITE ONLY
LIMITED SUNSHINE (LINGERING MRNG CLDS...PLUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AGN FROM THE S AND SW BY LATE AFTN)...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S-LWR 50S.

SUN NGT LOOKS WET...AS THE SFC-850 MB WARM FRNTL BNDRYS LIFT NWD
THROUGH THE RGN...ASSOCD WITH A DEEPENING CYCLONE MOVG UP INTO THE
NRN LKS RGN. THUS...POPS REMAIN IN THE LIKELY-CAT RANGES.

ALTHOUGH A FEW SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...WE`LL PROBABLY HAVE A RELATIVE
LULL AGN FOR MOST OF MON...WITH CNY/NE PA SOLIDLY IN A WARM SECTOR
TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT. IN FACT...READINGS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM...WITH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 60S FOR A GOOD PTN OF THE AREA MON AFTN.

AN OCCLUDED/COLD FRNT TIED TO THE ABV MENTIONED SFC CYCLONE IS
PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA MON EVE...WITH AT LEAST SCTD
SHWRS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. SOME OF OUR MODEL
SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE DVLPMT OF MARGINAL INSTAB LATE MON (SB CAPES
OF 300-600 J/KG...SPCLY OVER NE PA). IF THIS WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...THIS SITN WOULD HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A
PSBL COOL SEASON LOW CAPE-HIGH SHEAR TYPE OF EVENT...GIVEN THE
PROGGED 0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES. AT THIS EARLY
JUNCTURE...WE DO NOT YET HAVE ANY THUNDER MENTIONED IN THE FCST.

LTR MON NGT AND TUE...A CAA REGIME WILL BE WITH US AGN...ON A WSWLY
FLOW PATN. SINCE THIS TRAJ IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR OUR CWA...AND ALSO
THE INCOMING AMS IS NOT THAT COLD INITIALLY...LES IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL OR NONE AT ALL THROUGH TUE. AS A MATTER OF FACT...BLYR
TEMPS ONLY APPEAR TO SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX ON TUE...WITH TEMPS
STILL IN THE 30S OR LWR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THIS PERIOD WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR
LAKE SNOW BANDS.

SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK WITH THE WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LOW ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER THE FORECAST TRACKS STILL
ONLY GIVE A GLANCING BLOW OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR SERN ZONES.

NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL REINFORCE POLAR AIR
AND MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHEASTERN
ONONDAGA INTO NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA.

MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN STATES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LLWS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ABOUT 10Z WITH A 240-260 DEG FLOW
BETWEEN 40-48 KTS AT 2000 FEET...EXCEPTION IS LLWS PERSISTING TO
15Z KRME DUE TO OPPOSITION OF FLOW AT 2KFT TO LOCALIZED ESE VALLEY
WIND AT SURFACE. UNFORTUNATELY...ENHANCED JET FROM A STRONGLY
FORCED WAVE APPEARS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP LLWS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD ALSO...BUT IN BETWEEN DURING THE DAYTIME...NO LLWS AND
LIGHT SW TO SE WINDS...BACKING WITH TIME. AS FOR CLOUDS ...KSYR-
KRME WILL HOLD ONTO HIGH END MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING...SCT
-SHRA AS WELL INITIALLY...AND EVEN A BIT INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING MAINLY VFR UNTIL TOWARDS END OF TAF
PERIOD WHEN FUEL ALT REQ MVFR CIG DEVELOPS KAVP-KELM-KITH-KBGM
ALONG WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING 04Z-06Z MON.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN/FOG MAINLY MON MORNING...THEN SHRA
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING. TIMES OF POSSIBLE LLWS AS WELL.

TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT COASTAL SYSTEM MAY SKIM AT
LEAST KAVP WITH -SN LATE WED-EARLY THU.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ009-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ/PVF
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 230559
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1259 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. SUNDAY WILL
BE MAINLY DRY AND MILDER. AFTER A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT...MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
934 PM UPDATE...
DROPPED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY BASED ON CALLS TO LOCAL DOTS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE MESONET SITES ARE STILL CLOSE
TO FREEZING. DUE TO SUCH COLD WEATHER THE PAST WEEK I WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO STILL SEE SOME LIGHT ICING IN SOME ISOLATED SPOTS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT, ESPECIALLY OUR NORMALLY COLDER SECTIONS SUCH AS
SECONDARY ROADS, SIDEWALKS, AND SHADY SPOTS. SINCE THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD, WE WILL COVER THAT WITH AN SPS. UP
ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR PLAIN RAIN HERE.


410 PM UPDATE...
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR LOCALES STILL HOLDING TUFF
ONTO FRZG TEMPS, NAMELY SUSQUEHANNA CNTY AND NRN WAYNE CNTY AS
ROADWAYS ARE SLIPPERY MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS ARE OCCURRING PER
PENNDOT. RMNDR OF SITES HV CLIMBED WELL ABV FRZG BUT COLD AIR
SEEMS TO BE LOCKED INTO THESE AREAS. STILL SEEING PATCHY DRIZZLE
IN THESE AREAS AS WV DEPARTS TO THE EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

215 PM UPDATE... WE`VE EXPANDED THE FRZG RAIN ADVSY TO INCLUDE A
NUMBER OF OUR FAR ERN ZNS (ALL OF ONEIDA...OTSEGO...DELAWARE...AND
SULLIVAN CNTYS).

PATCHY LGT PCPN IS OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE RGN LATE THIS
AFTN...WITH PCPN LIKELY TO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT ACRS OUR NRN AND
ERN ZNS THIS EVE...AS ANOTHER S/WV ZIPS THROUGH THE AREA...AND
ENHANCES LIFT ASSOCD WITH WAA FORCING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT TEMPS
ALOFT WILL WARM AT A SUFFICIENT RATE TO PRECLUDE MOST PTYPS...OTHER
THAN PRIMARILY RAIN OR FRZG RAIN. AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE...LOW-
LVL COLD AIR WILL BE HARDEST TO DISLODGE IN THE SRN TUG HILL
RGN...OTSEGO CNTY...AND THE WRN CATSKILLS...HENCE THE ADVSY FOR
THIS RGN. WE STILL EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL HOVER NEAR OR JUST BLO
THE FRZG MARK THIS EVE OVER SXNS OF THE POCONOS IN NE PA.
HOWEVER...PCPN WILL BE MUCH LGTR/MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE OVER THIS
AREA...SO THAT IS WHY NO ADVSYS HAVE BEEN POSTED. ACRS THE REST
OF THE FA...TEMPS WILL BE FAR ENUF ABV 32F...AND/OR PCPN WILL BE
LGT ENUF...SO AS TO PREVENT ANY REAL ISSUES WITH ICING.

-RA/-FZRA IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE AFTER 06-09Z...AS THE ABV
MENTIONED S/WV LIFTS TO OFF OUR NE...AND WE`RE JUST LEFT WITH A
BROAD SW FLOW PATN...AND NO REAL TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR PCPN.

TEMPS WILL EXHIBIT A NON-DIURNAL TREND OVERNIGHT...RISING SLOWLY
WITH TIME. MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE CAPTURED THIS NICELY...AND
WE USED A BLEND OF OUR PREV FCST...AS WELL AS ADJLAV AND HI-RES
WRF VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE... MUCH OF SUN STILL LOOKS PCPN-FREE FROM THIS
VANTAGE PT...AS CNY/NE PA RESIDE IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES. DESPITE ONLY
LIMITED SUNSHINE (LINGERING MRNG CLDS...PLUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AGN FROM THE S AND SW BY LATE AFTN)...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S-LWR 50S.

SUN NGT LOOKS WET...AS THE SFC-850 MB WARM FRNTL BNDRYS LIFT NWD
THROUGH THE RGN...ASSOCD WITH A DEEPENING CYCLONE MOVG UP INTO THE
NRN LKS RGN. THUS...POPS REMAIN IN THE LIKELY-CAT RANGES.

ALTHOUGH A FEW SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...WE`LL PROBABLY HAVE A RELATIVE
LULL AGN FOR MOST OF MON...WITH CNY/NE PA SOLIDLY IN A WARM SECTOR
TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT. IN FACT...READINGS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM...WITH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 60S FOR A GOOD PTN OF THE AREA MON AFTN.

AN OCCLUDED/COLD FRNT TIED TO THE ABV MENTIONED SFC CYCLONE IS
PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA MON EVE...WITH AT LEAST SCTD
SHWRS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. SOME OF OUR MODEL
SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE DVLPMT OF MARGINAL INSTAB LATE MON (SB CAPES
OF 300-600 J/KG...SPCLY OVER NE PA). IF THIS WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...THIS SITN WOULD HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A
PSBL COOL SEASON LOW CAPE-HIGH SHEAR TYPE OF EVENT...GIVEN THE
PROGGED 0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES. AT THIS EARLY
JUNCTURE...WE DO NOT YET HAVE ANY THUNDER MENTIONED IN THE FCST.

LTR MON NGT AND TUE...A CAA REGIME WILL BE WITH US AGN...ON A WSWLY
FLOW PATN. SINCE THIS TRAJ IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR OUR CWA...AND ALSO
THE INCOMING AMS IS NOT THAT COLD INITIALLY...LES IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL OR NONE AT ALL THROUGH TUE. AS A MATTER OF FACT...BLYR
TEMPS ONLY APPEAR TO SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX ON TUE...WITH TEMPS
STILL IN THE 30S OR LWR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THIS PERIOD WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR
LAKE SNOW BANDS.

SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK WITH THE WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LOW ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER THE FORECAST TRACKS STILL
ONLY GIVE A GLANCING BLOW OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR SERN ZONES.

NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL REINFORCE POLAR AIR
AND MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHEASTERN
ONONDAGA INTO NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA.

MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN STATES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LLWS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ABOUT 10Z WITH A 240-260 DEG FLOW
BETWEEN 40-48 KTS AT 2000 FEET...EXCEPTION IS LLWS PERSISTING TO
15Z KRME DUE TO OPPOSITION OF FLOW AT 2KFT TO LOCALIZED ESE VALLEY
WIND AT SURFACE. UNFORTUNATELY...ENHANCED JET FROM A STRONGLY
FORCED WAVE APPEARS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP LLWS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD ALSO...BUT IN BETWEEN DURING THE DAYTIME...NO LLWS AND
LIGHT SW TO SE WINDS...BACKING WITH TIME. AS FOR CLOUDS ...KSYR-
KRME WILL HOLD ONTO HIGH END MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING...SCT
-SHRA AS WELL INITIALLY...AND EVEN A BIT INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING MAINLY VFR UNTIL TOWARDS END OF TAF
PERIOD WHEN FUEL ALT REQ MVFR CIG DEVELOPS KAVP-KELM-KITH-KBGM
ALONG WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING 04Z-06Z MON.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN/FOG MAINLY MON MORNING...THEN SHRA
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING. TIMES OF POSSIBLE LLWS AS WELL.

TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT COASTAL SYSTEM MAY SKIM AT
LEAST KAVP WITH -SN LATE WED-EARLY THU.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ009-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ/PVF
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 230559
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1259 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. SUNDAY WILL
BE MAINLY DRY AND MILDER. AFTER A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT...MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
934 PM UPDATE...
DROPPED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY BASED ON CALLS TO LOCAL DOTS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE MESONET SITES ARE STILL CLOSE
TO FREEZING. DUE TO SUCH COLD WEATHER THE PAST WEEK I WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO STILL SEE SOME LIGHT ICING IN SOME ISOLATED SPOTS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT, ESPECIALLY OUR NORMALLY COLDER SECTIONS SUCH AS
SECONDARY ROADS, SIDEWALKS, AND SHADY SPOTS. SINCE THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD, WE WILL COVER THAT WITH AN SPS. UP
ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR PLAIN RAIN HERE.


410 PM UPDATE...
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR LOCALES STILL HOLDING TUFF
ONTO FRZG TEMPS, NAMELY SUSQUEHANNA CNTY AND NRN WAYNE CNTY AS
ROADWAYS ARE SLIPPERY MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS ARE OCCURRING PER
PENNDOT. RMNDR OF SITES HV CLIMBED WELL ABV FRZG BUT COLD AIR
SEEMS TO BE LOCKED INTO THESE AREAS. STILL SEEING PATCHY DRIZZLE
IN THESE AREAS AS WV DEPARTS TO THE EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

215 PM UPDATE... WE`VE EXPANDED THE FRZG RAIN ADVSY TO INCLUDE A
NUMBER OF OUR FAR ERN ZNS (ALL OF ONEIDA...OTSEGO...DELAWARE...AND
SULLIVAN CNTYS).

PATCHY LGT PCPN IS OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE RGN LATE THIS
AFTN...WITH PCPN LIKELY TO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT ACRS OUR NRN AND
ERN ZNS THIS EVE...AS ANOTHER S/WV ZIPS THROUGH THE AREA...AND
ENHANCES LIFT ASSOCD WITH WAA FORCING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT TEMPS
ALOFT WILL WARM AT A SUFFICIENT RATE TO PRECLUDE MOST PTYPS...OTHER
THAN PRIMARILY RAIN OR FRZG RAIN. AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE...LOW-
LVL COLD AIR WILL BE HARDEST TO DISLODGE IN THE SRN TUG HILL
RGN...OTSEGO CNTY...AND THE WRN CATSKILLS...HENCE THE ADVSY FOR
THIS RGN. WE STILL EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL HOVER NEAR OR JUST BLO
THE FRZG MARK THIS EVE OVER SXNS OF THE POCONOS IN NE PA.
HOWEVER...PCPN WILL BE MUCH LGTR/MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE OVER THIS
AREA...SO THAT IS WHY NO ADVSYS HAVE BEEN POSTED. ACRS THE REST
OF THE FA...TEMPS WILL BE FAR ENUF ABV 32F...AND/OR PCPN WILL BE
LGT ENUF...SO AS TO PREVENT ANY REAL ISSUES WITH ICING.

-RA/-FZRA IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE AFTER 06-09Z...AS THE ABV
MENTIONED S/WV LIFTS TO OFF OUR NE...AND WE`RE JUST LEFT WITH A
BROAD SW FLOW PATN...AND NO REAL TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR PCPN.

TEMPS WILL EXHIBIT A NON-DIURNAL TREND OVERNIGHT...RISING SLOWLY
WITH TIME. MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE CAPTURED THIS NICELY...AND
WE USED A BLEND OF OUR PREV FCST...AS WELL AS ADJLAV AND HI-RES
WRF VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE... MUCH OF SUN STILL LOOKS PCPN-FREE FROM THIS
VANTAGE PT...AS CNY/NE PA RESIDE IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES. DESPITE ONLY
LIMITED SUNSHINE (LINGERING MRNG CLDS...PLUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AGN FROM THE S AND SW BY LATE AFTN)...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S-LWR 50S.

SUN NGT LOOKS WET...AS THE SFC-850 MB WARM FRNTL BNDRYS LIFT NWD
THROUGH THE RGN...ASSOCD WITH A DEEPENING CYCLONE MOVG UP INTO THE
NRN LKS RGN. THUS...POPS REMAIN IN THE LIKELY-CAT RANGES.

ALTHOUGH A FEW SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...WE`LL PROBABLY HAVE A RELATIVE
LULL AGN FOR MOST OF MON...WITH CNY/NE PA SOLIDLY IN A WARM SECTOR
TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT. IN FACT...READINGS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM...WITH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 60S FOR A GOOD PTN OF THE AREA MON AFTN.

AN OCCLUDED/COLD FRNT TIED TO THE ABV MENTIONED SFC CYCLONE IS
PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA MON EVE...WITH AT LEAST SCTD
SHWRS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. SOME OF OUR MODEL
SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE DVLPMT OF MARGINAL INSTAB LATE MON (SB CAPES
OF 300-600 J/KG...SPCLY OVER NE PA). IF THIS WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...THIS SITN WOULD HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A
PSBL COOL SEASON LOW CAPE-HIGH SHEAR TYPE OF EVENT...GIVEN THE
PROGGED 0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES. AT THIS EARLY
JUNCTURE...WE DO NOT YET HAVE ANY THUNDER MENTIONED IN THE FCST.

LTR MON NGT AND TUE...A CAA REGIME WILL BE WITH US AGN...ON A WSWLY
FLOW PATN. SINCE THIS TRAJ IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR OUR CWA...AND ALSO
THE INCOMING AMS IS NOT THAT COLD INITIALLY...LES IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL OR NONE AT ALL THROUGH TUE. AS A MATTER OF FACT...BLYR
TEMPS ONLY APPEAR TO SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX ON TUE...WITH TEMPS
STILL IN THE 30S OR LWR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THIS PERIOD WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR
LAKE SNOW BANDS.

SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK WITH THE WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LOW ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER THE FORECAST TRACKS STILL
ONLY GIVE A GLANCING BLOW OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR SERN ZONES.

NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL REINFORCE POLAR AIR
AND MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHEASTERN
ONONDAGA INTO NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA.

MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN STATES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LLWS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ABOUT 10Z WITH A 240-260 DEG FLOW
BETWEEN 40-48 KTS AT 2000 FEET...EXCEPTION IS LLWS PERSISTING TO
15Z KRME DUE TO OPPOSITION OF FLOW AT 2KFT TO LOCALIZED ESE VALLEY
WIND AT SURFACE. UNFORTUNATELY...ENHANCED JET FROM A STRONGLY
FORCED WAVE APPEARS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP LLWS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD ALSO...BUT IN BETWEEN DURING THE DAYTIME...NO LLWS AND
LIGHT SW TO SE WINDS...BACKING WITH TIME. AS FOR CLOUDS ...KSYR-
KRME WILL HOLD ONTO HIGH END MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING...SCT
-SHRA AS WELL INITIALLY...AND EVEN A BIT INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING MAINLY VFR UNTIL TOWARDS END OF TAF
PERIOD WHEN FUEL ALT REQ MVFR CIG DEVELOPS KAVP-KELM-KITH-KBGM
ALONG WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING 04Z-06Z MON.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN/FOG MAINLY MON MORNING...THEN SHRA
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING. TIMES OF POSSIBLE LLWS AS WELL.

TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT COASTAL SYSTEM MAY SKIM AT
LEAST KAVP WITH -SN LATE WED-EARLY THU.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ009-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ/PVF
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 230559
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1259 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. SUNDAY WILL
BE MAINLY DRY AND MILDER. AFTER A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT...MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
934 PM UPDATE...
DROPPED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY BASED ON CALLS TO LOCAL DOTS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE MESONET SITES ARE STILL CLOSE
TO FREEZING. DUE TO SUCH COLD WEATHER THE PAST WEEK I WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO STILL SEE SOME LIGHT ICING IN SOME ISOLATED SPOTS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT, ESPECIALLY OUR NORMALLY COLDER SECTIONS SUCH AS
SECONDARY ROADS, SIDEWALKS, AND SHADY SPOTS. SINCE THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD, WE WILL COVER THAT WITH AN SPS. UP
ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR PLAIN RAIN HERE.


410 PM UPDATE...
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR LOCALES STILL HOLDING TUFF
ONTO FRZG TEMPS, NAMELY SUSQUEHANNA CNTY AND NRN WAYNE CNTY AS
ROADWAYS ARE SLIPPERY MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS ARE OCCURRING PER
PENNDOT. RMNDR OF SITES HV CLIMBED WELL ABV FRZG BUT COLD AIR
SEEMS TO BE LOCKED INTO THESE AREAS. STILL SEEING PATCHY DRIZZLE
IN THESE AREAS AS WV DEPARTS TO THE EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

215 PM UPDATE... WE`VE EXPANDED THE FRZG RAIN ADVSY TO INCLUDE A
NUMBER OF OUR FAR ERN ZNS (ALL OF ONEIDA...OTSEGO...DELAWARE...AND
SULLIVAN CNTYS).

PATCHY LGT PCPN IS OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE RGN LATE THIS
AFTN...WITH PCPN LIKELY TO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT ACRS OUR NRN AND
ERN ZNS THIS EVE...AS ANOTHER S/WV ZIPS THROUGH THE AREA...AND
ENHANCES LIFT ASSOCD WITH WAA FORCING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT TEMPS
ALOFT WILL WARM AT A SUFFICIENT RATE TO PRECLUDE MOST PTYPS...OTHER
THAN PRIMARILY RAIN OR FRZG RAIN. AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE...LOW-
LVL COLD AIR WILL BE HARDEST TO DISLODGE IN THE SRN TUG HILL
RGN...OTSEGO CNTY...AND THE WRN CATSKILLS...HENCE THE ADVSY FOR
THIS RGN. WE STILL EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL HOVER NEAR OR JUST BLO
THE FRZG MARK THIS EVE OVER SXNS OF THE POCONOS IN NE PA.
HOWEVER...PCPN WILL BE MUCH LGTR/MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE OVER THIS
AREA...SO THAT IS WHY NO ADVSYS HAVE BEEN POSTED. ACRS THE REST
OF THE FA...TEMPS WILL BE FAR ENUF ABV 32F...AND/OR PCPN WILL BE
LGT ENUF...SO AS TO PREVENT ANY REAL ISSUES WITH ICING.

-RA/-FZRA IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE AFTER 06-09Z...AS THE ABV
MENTIONED S/WV LIFTS TO OFF OUR NE...AND WE`RE JUST LEFT WITH A
BROAD SW FLOW PATN...AND NO REAL TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR PCPN.

TEMPS WILL EXHIBIT A NON-DIURNAL TREND OVERNIGHT...RISING SLOWLY
WITH TIME. MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE CAPTURED THIS NICELY...AND
WE USED A BLEND OF OUR PREV FCST...AS WELL AS ADJLAV AND HI-RES
WRF VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE... MUCH OF SUN STILL LOOKS PCPN-FREE FROM THIS
VANTAGE PT...AS CNY/NE PA RESIDE IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES. DESPITE ONLY
LIMITED SUNSHINE (LINGERING MRNG CLDS...PLUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AGN FROM THE S AND SW BY LATE AFTN)...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S-LWR 50S.

SUN NGT LOOKS WET...AS THE SFC-850 MB WARM FRNTL BNDRYS LIFT NWD
THROUGH THE RGN...ASSOCD WITH A DEEPENING CYCLONE MOVG UP INTO THE
NRN LKS RGN. THUS...POPS REMAIN IN THE LIKELY-CAT RANGES.

ALTHOUGH A FEW SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...WE`LL PROBABLY HAVE A RELATIVE
LULL AGN FOR MOST OF MON...WITH CNY/NE PA SOLIDLY IN A WARM SECTOR
TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT. IN FACT...READINGS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM...WITH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 60S FOR A GOOD PTN OF THE AREA MON AFTN.

AN OCCLUDED/COLD FRNT TIED TO THE ABV MENTIONED SFC CYCLONE IS
PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA MON EVE...WITH AT LEAST SCTD
SHWRS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. SOME OF OUR MODEL
SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE DVLPMT OF MARGINAL INSTAB LATE MON (SB CAPES
OF 300-600 J/KG...SPCLY OVER NE PA). IF THIS WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...THIS SITN WOULD HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A
PSBL COOL SEASON LOW CAPE-HIGH SHEAR TYPE OF EVENT...GIVEN THE
PROGGED 0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES. AT THIS EARLY
JUNCTURE...WE DO NOT YET HAVE ANY THUNDER MENTIONED IN THE FCST.

LTR MON NGT AND TUE...A CAA REGIME WILL BE WITH US AGN...ON A WSWLY
FLOW PATN. SINCE THIS TRAJ IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR OUR CWA...AND ALSO
THE INCOMING AMS IS NOT THAT COLD INITIALLY...LES IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL OR NONE AT ALL THROUGH TUE. AS A MATTER OF FACT...BLYR
TEMPS ONLY APPEAR TO SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX ON TUE...WITH TEMPS
STILL IN THE 30S OR LWR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THIS PERIOD WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR
LAKE SNOW BANDS.

SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK WITH THE WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LOW ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER THE FORECAST TRACKS STILL
ONLY GIVE A GLANCING BLOW OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR SERN ZONES.

NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL REINFORCE POLAR AIR
AND MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHEASTERN
ONONDAGA INTO NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA.

MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN STATES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LLWS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ABOUT 10Z WITH A 240-260 DEG FLOW
BETWEEN 40-48 KTS AT 2000 FEET...EXCEPTION IS LLWS PERSISTING TO
15Z KRME DUE TO OPPOSITION OF FLOW AT 2KFT TO LOCALIZED ESE VALLEY
WIND AT SURFACE. UNFORTUNATELY...ENHANCED JET FROM A STRONGLY
FORCED WAVE APPEARS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP LLWS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD ALSO...BUT IN BETWEEN DURING THE DAYTIME...NO LLWS AND
LIGHT SW TO SE WINDS...BACKING WITH TIME. AS FOR CLOUDS ...KSYR-
KRME WILL HOLD ONTO HIGH END MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING...SCT
-SHRA AS WELL INITIALLY...AND EVEN A BIT INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING MAINLY VFR UNTIL TOWARDS END OF TAF
PERIOD WHEN FUEL ALT REQ MVFR CIG DEVELOPS KAVP-KELM-KITH-KBGM
ALONG WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING 04Z-06Z MON.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN/FOG MAINLY MON MORNING...THEN SHRA
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING. TIMES OF POSSIBLE LLWS AS WELL.

TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT COASTAL SYSTEM MAY SKIM AT
LEAST KAVP WITH -SN LATE WED-EARLY THU.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ009-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ/PVF
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KALY 230553
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1253 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY MILDER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY
MILD WEATHER FOR A NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM EST...THE WINTER WX ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN BERKS
NORTHWARD INTO SRN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE NRN SARATOGA REGION...AND
THE SRN DACKS UNTIL 5 AM FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING
REPORTED NORTH OF THE REGION WITH PLAIN RAIN...AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE FOCUSES THE LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION. THE KALB 00Z
SOUNDING NICELY SHOWS THE WARM NOSE BETWEEN 875 HPA AND 775 HPA.
THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE SPOTTY SHOWERS GOING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA UNTIL 09Z-12Z. THE POPS AND WX WERE
ATTEMPTED TO BE RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND A PCPN-
THICKNESS TOOL. IT APPEARS THAT A SUFFICIENT TEMP/DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION...COMBINED WITH GROUND TEMPS NEAR FREEZING DUE TO OUR
RECENT COLD SPELL...HAVE LARGELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE REPORTS OF ICE
FORMATION DESPITE TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS WILL RISE
VERY SLOWLY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S THROUGH DAYBREAK. ANY ICE
ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A COATING TO A STRAY TENTH. SLEET
ACCUMS WILL BE A COATING TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS IN A FEW SPOTS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT
NOT MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF
-RAPL IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME
-RA AROUND AFT 06Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS PSBL TIL ARND 10Z.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>043-048>050-054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KOKX 230551 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1249 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS TO
OUR NORTH MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS BEHIND IT
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION
TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN LINGERS NEAR
THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. WILL ADJUST HOURLY
TEMPS/DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS...WHICH SEEM TO BE A BIT
WARMER THAN FORECAST. WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND FOR A FEW HOURS...AND
WILL RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A DEGREE OR SO.

OTHERWISE...WEAK SHORTWAVE PASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT IN
ZONAL FLOW...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT LIQUID PRECIP. CLOUD COVER AND WAA SW
FLOW SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY OR ONLY
SLOWLY DROP OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS OF LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT TO DROP TO AROUND FREEZING IN A FEW
SPOTS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD ABOVE FREEZING THERE.
FORECAST TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR SO TOO COLD. FREEZING RAIN
THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOW AND SPARSE AT WORST ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS...BUT WILL BE MONITORED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
RIDGING SUNDAY OCCURS AHEAD OF DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES AND DEEPENS OVER THE MID PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
DEEPENING LOW MARCHES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE AT
NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...ANY MORNING CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SW WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S MOST LOCALES...CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

THEN TEMPS REMAIN STEADY IN THE EVENING BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.

RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY WEEK...WITH
PHASING SOUTHERN STREAM/NORTHERN STREAM AND PAC ENERGY OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY LIFTING INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC MON
NIGHT/TUE. THE RESULT WILL BE A BOMBING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TAKING A SIMILAR PATH AS THE UPPER ENERGY. AHEAD OF IT...DEEP S/SW
FLOW...WITH 70-75 KT LLJ...WILL BRING A MOIST AIRMASS (PW 3-4 STD
ABOVE NORMAL) INTO THE REGION UP AND OVER AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN NIGHT THRU MON MORNING. A
BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING INDICATE SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF TRI-STATE. RAIN
SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY MON AS WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH...WITH
REGION WARM SECTORED IN ITS WAKE.

UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS...15-20 DEG ABOVE SEASONABLE...POSSIBLE
ACROSS INTERIOR MON AFT. A TIGHT SW GRADIENT AND CONTINUED HEALTHY
LLJ OF 40-45 KT AT 950 MB SHOULD RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND AREAS N&W OF NYC MON WITH ANY BREAKS OF SUN AND
RESULTANT DEEPER MIXED LAYER. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MON
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACCOMPANYING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE...AND THEN CAA IN ITS WAKE LATE.

TRANQUIL AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS ON TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THEN POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR A COASTAL STORM IMPACTING THE
REGION WED/WED NIGHT...BUT UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE DRIVER FOR THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE PHASING NORTHERN
STREAM AND PAC ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF DEEP CENTRAL US
TROUGHING EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THE ENERGY PIVOTING UP THE COAST
MIDWEEK AS IT PHASES WITH YET ANOTHER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. DIFFERENCES EXIST MORE SO WITH THE DEGREE OF
THIS SECOND INTERACTION...AFFECTING HOW NEGATIVELY TILTED ANS
STRONG THE TROUGH BECOMES. THE RESULT IS SOME TIMING...BUT MAINLY
TRACK DIFFERENCES WITH HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF TRACKS TO THE REGION WED NIGHT. FOR NOW
HAVE PLAYED A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TRACK BETWEEN OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH WOULD TRACK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE 40/70
LAT/LON BENCHMARK WED NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR A
RAIN/SNOW COAST...SNOW INTERIOR ON WED...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WED
NIGHT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND
TRACK NORTH. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TALK ABOUT SNOW AMOUNTS AND
LOCATION...BUT AT THIS POINT A LOW POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW FOR A PORTION OF THE TRI-STATE.

THEREAFTER...MODELS ARE STILL DIVERGENT OVER WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE
STORM...BUT IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN ITS WAKE EITHER DUE TO A LINGERING TROUGH
BEHIND THE LOW...OR ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES LATER TODAY.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03Z MONDAY. LOW CHANCE FOR POCKETS OF -FZRA
TOWARDS DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AT KSWF WITH MVFR CIGS...BUT PROB
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 8-12 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH 45-50 KT WINDS AT 2000-3000
FT...WILL KEEP LLWS IN THE TAFS THROUGH AROUND 13Z. IF THESE WINDS
MIX DOWN...AS APPEARS TO BE HAPPENING AT KGON...THEN SW WINDS WOULD
RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.

WINDS DIMINISH AFTER 13Z...AND WILL RANGE FROM 7-10 KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT POSSIBLE SEA BREEZES AT
KHPN TO KGON WITH LI SOUND TEMPS IN THE 40S. THIS WOULD BACK WINDS
TO AROUND 170 TRUE AFT 17Z. WINDS WILL OTHERWISE BACK TO THE SOUTH
TOWARDS EVENING.

CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BETWEEN 03-06Z MONDAY AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TONIGHT-MONDAY...IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN/FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE WITH 50 KT
WINDS 1500-2000 FT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH 20-35 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15
KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH PASSAGE OF
COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR THE INTERIOR...
BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST BASED ON TRACK
OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS UP. MARGINAL CONDS IN WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND
AND NEW YORK HARBOR. A FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI SOUND. HOWEVER...THESE GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...SO WILL NOT UPGRADE TO GALE
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
QUITE POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...WITH SCA
CRITERIA ELSEWHERE. WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH BEGINNING LATE AT NIGHT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.

ROUGH OCEAN SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY BEFORE BUILDING YET AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING
THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH MON BRINGING THE THREAT OF GALES.
BETTER OVERALL CHANCES WOULD BE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT THIS COULD
EXPAND TO THE OTHER ZONES. GALE WATCH FOR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MON.

SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS LATER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS
THEN BECOME MORE PROBABLE LATER WED THRU THU AS A COASTAL STORM
TRACKS TO THE SE OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A QUICK HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY THE MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS
EVENT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE AROUND AN INCH.
ANY MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LOCALLY.

A LOW POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS WED INTO
WED NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST MON HIGH TEMPS

NEWARK..............75/1979..................70
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..................65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..................68
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..................69
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.................67
ISLIP...............63/2001..................65

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-340-345-355.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KOKX 230551 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1249 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS TO
OUR NORTH MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS BEHIND IT
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION
TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN LINGERS NEAR
THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. WILL ADJUST HOURLY
TEMPS/DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS...WHICH SEEM TO BE A BIT
WARMER THAN FORECAST. WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND FOR A FEW HOURS...AND
WILL RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A DEGREE OR SO.

OTHERWISE...WEAK SHORTWAVE PASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT IN
ZONAL FLOW...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT LIQUID PRECIP. CLOUD COVER AND WAA SW
FLOW SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY OR ONLY
SLOWLY DROP OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS OF LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT TO DROP TO AROUND FREEZING IN A FEW
SPOTS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD ABOVE FREEZING THERE.
FORECAST TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR SO TOO COLD. FREEZING RAIN
THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOW AND SPARSE AT WORST ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS...BUT WILL BE MONITORED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
RIDGING SUNDAY OCCURS AHEAD OF DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES AND DEEPENS OVER THE MID PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
DEEPENING LOW MARCHES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE AT
NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...ANY MORNING CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SW WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S MOST LOCALES...CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

THEN TEMPS REMAIN STEADY IN THE EVENING BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.

RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY WEEK...WITH
PHASING SOUTHERN STREAM/NORTHERN STREAM AND PAC ENERGY OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY LIFTING INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC MON
NIGHT/TUE. THE RESULT WILL BE A BOMBING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TAKING A SIMILAR PATH AS THE UPPER ENERGY. AHEAD OF IT...DEEP S/SW
FLOW...WITH 70-75 KT LLJ...WILL BRING A MOIST AIRMASS (PW 3-4 STD
ABOVE NORMAL) INTO THE REGION UP AND OVER AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN NIGHT THRU MON MORNING. A
BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING INDICATE SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF TRI-STATE. RAIN
SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY MON AS WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH...WITH
REGION WARM SECTORED IN ITS WAKE.

UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS...15-20 DEG ABOVE SEASONABLE...POSSIBLE
ACROSS INTERIOR MON AFT. A TIGHT SW GRADIENT AND CONTINUED HEALTHY
LLJ OF 40-45 KT AT 950 MB SHOULD RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND AREAS N&W OF NYC MON WITH ANY BREAKS OF SUN AND
RESULTANT DEEPER MIXED LAYER. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MON
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACCOMPANYING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE...AND THEN CAA IN ITS WAKE LATE.

TRANQUIL AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS ON TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THEN POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR A COASTAL STORM IMPACTING THE
REGION WED/WED NIGHT...BUT UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE DRIVER FOR THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE PHASING NORTHERN
STREAM AND PAC ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF DEEP CENTRAL US
TROUGHING EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THE ENERGY PIVOTING UP THE COAST
MIDWEEK AS IT PHASES WITH YET ANOTHER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. DIFFERENCES EXIST MORE SO WITH THE DEGREE OF
THIS SECOND INTERACTION...AFFECTING HOW NEGATIVELY TILTED ANS
STRONG THE TROUGH BECOMES. THE RESULT IS SOME TIMING...BUT MAINLY
TRACK DIFFERENCES WITH HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF TRACKS TO THE REGION WED NIGHT. FOR NOW
HAVE PLAYED A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TRACK BETWEEN OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH WOULD TRACK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE 40/70
LAT/LON BENCHMARK WED NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR A
RAIN/SNOW COAST...SNOW INTERIOR ON WED...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WED
NIGHT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND
TRACK NORTH. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TALK ABOUT SNOW AMOUNTS AND
LOCATION...BUT AT THIS POINT A LOW POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW FOR A PORTION OF THE TRI-STATE.

THEREAFTER...MODELS ARE STILL DIVERGENT OVER WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE
STORM...BUT IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN ITS WAKE EITHER DUE TO A LINGERING TROUGH
BEHIND THE LOW...OR ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES LATER TODAY.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03Z MONDAY. LOW CHANCE FOR POCKETS OF -FZRA
TOWARDS DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AT KSWF WITH MVFR CIGS...BUT PROB
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 8-12 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH 45-50 KT WINDS AT 2000-3000
FT...WILL KEEP LLWS IN THE TAFS THROUGH AROUND 13Z. IF THESE WINDS
MIX DOWN...AS APPEARS TO BE HAPPENING AT KGON...THEN SW WINDS WOULD
RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.

WINDS DIMINISH AFTER 13Z...AND WILL RANGE FROM 7-10 KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT POSSIBLE SEA BREEZES AT
KHPN TO KGON WITH LI SOUND TEMPS IN THE 40S. THIS WOULD BACK WINDS
TO AROUND 170 TRUE AFT 17Z. WINDS WILL OTHERWISE BACK TO THE SOUTH
TOWARDS EVENING.

CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BETWEEN 03-06Z MONDAY AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TONIGHT-MONDAY...IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN/FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE WITH 50 KT
WINDS 1500-2000 FT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH 20-35 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15
KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH PASSAGE OF
COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR THE INTERIOR...
BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST BASED ON TRACK
OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS UP. MARGINAL CONDS IN WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND
AND NEW YORK HARBOR. A FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI SOUND. HOWEVER...THESE GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...SO WILL NOT UPGRADE TO GALE
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
QUITE POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...WITH SCA
CRITERIA ELSEWHERE. WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH BEGINNING LATE AT NIGHT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.

ROUGH OCEAN SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY BEFORE BUILDING YET AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING
THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH MON BRINGING THE THREAT OF GALES.
BETTER OVERALL CHANCES WOULD BE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT THIS COULD
EXPAND TO THE OTHER ZONES. GALE WATCH FOR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MON.

SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS LATER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS
THEN BECOME MORE PROBABLE LATER WED THRU THU AS A COASTAL STORM
TRACKS TO THE SE OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A QUICK HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY THE MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS
EVENT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE AROUND AN INCH.
ANY MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LOCALLY.

A LOW POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS WED INTO
WED NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST MON HIGH TEMPS

NEWARK..............75/1979..................70
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..................65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..................68
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..................69
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.................67
ISLIP...............63/2001..................65

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-340-345-355.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KOKX 230551 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1249 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS TO
OUR NORTH MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS BEHIND IT
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION
TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN LINGERS NEAR
THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. WILL ADJUST HOURLY
TEMPS/DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS...WHICH SEEM TO BE A BIT
WARMER THAN FORECAST. WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND FOR A FEW HOURS...AND
WILL RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A DEGREE OR SO.

OTHERWISE...WEAK SHORTWAVE PASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT IN
ZONAL FLOW...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT LIQUID PRECIP. CLOUD COVER AND WAA SW
FLOW SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY OR ONLY
SLOWLY DROP OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS OF LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT TO DROP TO AROUND FREEZING IN A FEW
SPOTS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD ABOVE FREEZING THERE.
FORECAST TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR SO TOO COLD. FREEZING RAIN
THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOW AND SPARSE AT WORST ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS...BUT WILL BE MONITORED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
RIDGING SUNDAY OCCURS AHEAD OF DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES AND DEEPENS OVER THE MID PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
DEEPENING LOW MARCHES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE AT
NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...ANY MORNING CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SW WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S MOST LOCALES...CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

THEN TEMPS REMAIN STEADY IN THE EVENING BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.

RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY WEEK...WITH
PHASING SOUTHERN STREAM/NORTHERN STREAM AND PAC ENERGY OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY LIFTING INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC MON
NIGHT/TUE. THE RESULT WILL BE A BOMBING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TAKING A SIMILAR PATH AS THE UPPER ENERGY. AHEAD OF IT...DEEP S/SW
FLOW...WITH 70-75 KT LLJ...WILL BRING A MOIST AIRMASS (PW 3-4 STD
ABOVE NORMAL) INTO THE REGION UP AND OVER AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN NIGHT THRU MON MORNING. A
BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING INDICATE SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF TRI-STATE. RAIN
SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY MON AS WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH...WITH
REGION WARM SECTORED IN ITS WAKE.

UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS...15-20 DEG ABOVE SEASONABLE...POSSIBLE
ACROSS INTERIOR MON AFT. A TIGHT SW GRADIENT AND CONTINUED HEALTHY
LLJ OF 40-45 KT AT 950 MB SHOULD RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND AREAS N&W OF NYC MON WITH ANY BREAKS OF SUN AND
RESULTANT DEEPER MIXED LAYER. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MON
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACCOMPANYING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE...AND THEN CAA IN ITS WAKE LATE.

TRANQUIL AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS ON TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THEN POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR A COASTAL STORM IMPACTING THE
REGION WED/WED NIGHT...BUT UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE DRIVER FOR THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE PHASING NORTHERN
STREAM AND PAC ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF DEEP CENTRAL US
TROUGHING EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THE ENERGY PIVOTING UP THE COAST
MIDWEEK AS IT PHASES WITH YET ANOTHER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. DIFFERENCES EXIST MORE SO WITH THE DEGREE OF
THIS SECOND INTERACTION...AFFECTING HOW NEGATIVELY TILTED ANS
STRONG THE TROUGH BECOMES. THE RESULT IS SOME TIMING...BUT MAINLY
TRACK DIFFERENCES WITH HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF TRACKS TO THE REGION WED NIGHT. FOR NOW
HAVE PLAYED A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TRACK BETWEEN OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH WOULD TRACK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE 40/70
LAT/LON BENCHMARK WED NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR A
RAIN/SNOW COAST...SNOW INTERIOR ON WED...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WED
NIGHT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND
TRACK NORTH. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TALK ABOUT SNOW AMOUNTS AND
LOCATION...BUT AT THIS POINT A LOW POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW FOR A PORTION OF THE TRI-STATE.

THEREAFTER...MODELS ARE STILL DIVERGENT OVER WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE
STORM...BUT IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN ITS WAKE EITHER DUE TO A LINGERING TROUGH
BEHIND THE LOW...OR ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES LATER TODAY.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03Z MONDAY. LOW CHANCE FOR POCKETS OF -FZRA
TOWARDS DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AT KSWF WITH MVFR CIGS...BUT PROB
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 8-12 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH 45-50 KT WINDS AT 2000-3000
FT...WILL KEEP LLWS IN THE TAFS THROUGH AROUND 13Z. IF THESE WINDS
MIX DOWN...AS APPEARS TO BE HAPPENING AT KGON...THEN SW WINDS WOULD
RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.

WINDS DIMINISH AFTER 13Z...AND WILL RANGE FROM 7-10 KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT POSSIBLE SEA BREEZES AT
KHPN TO KGON WITH LI SOUND TEMPS IN THE 40S. THIS WOULD BACK WINDS
TO AROUND 170 TRUE AFT 17Z. WINDS WILL OTHERWISE BACK TO THE SOUTH
TOWARDS EVENING.

CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BETWEEN 03-06Z MONDAY AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TONIGHT-MONDAY...IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN/FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE WITH 50 KT
WINDS 1500-2000 FT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH 20-35 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15
KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH PASSAGE OF
COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR THE INTERIOR...
BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST BASED ON TRACK
OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS UP. MARGINAL CONDS IN WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND
AND NEW YORK HARBOR. A FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI SOUND. HOWEVER...THESE GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...SO WILL NOT UPGRADE TO GALE
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
QUITE POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...WITH SCA
CRITERIA ELSEWHERE. WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH BEGINNING LATE AT NIGHT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.

ROUGH OCEAN SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY BEFORE BUILDING YET AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING
THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH MON BRINGING THE THREAT OF GALES.
BETTER OVERALL CHANCES WOULD BE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT THIS COULD
EXPAND TO THE OTHER ZONES. GALE WATCH FOR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MON.

SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS LATER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS
THEN BECOME MORE PROBABLE LATER WED THRU THU AS A COASTAL STORM
TRACKS TO THE SE OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A QUICK HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY THE MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS
EVENT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE AROUND AN INCH.
ANY MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LOCALLY.

A LOW POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS WED INTO
WED NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST MON HIGH TEMPS

NEWARK..............75/1979..................70
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..................65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..................68
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..................69
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.................67
ISLIP...............63/2001..................65

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-340-345-355.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KOKX 230551 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1249 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS TO
OUR NORTH MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS BEHIND IT
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION
TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN LINGERS NEAR
THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. WILL ADJUST HOURLY
TEMPS/DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS...WHICH SEEM TO BE A BIT
WARMER THAN FORECAST. WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND FOR A FEW HOURS...AND
WILL RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A DEGREE OR SO.

OTHERWISE...WEAK SHORTWAVE PASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT IN
ZONAL FLOW...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT LIQUID PRECIP. CLOUD COVER AND WAA SW
FLOW SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY OR ONLY
SLOWLY DROP OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS OF LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT TO DROP TO AROUND FREEZING IN A FEW
SPOTS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD ABOVE FREEZING THERE.
FORECAST TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR SO TOO COLD. FREEZING RAIN
THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOW AND SPARSE AT WORST ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS...BUT WILL BE MONITORED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
RIDGING SUNDAY OCCURS AHEAD OF DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES AND DEEPENS OVER THE MID PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
DEEPENING LOW MARCHES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE AT
NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...ANY MORNING CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SW WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S MOST LOCALES...CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

THEN TEMPS REMAIN STEADY IN THE EVENING BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.

RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY WEEK...WITH
PHASING SOUTHERN STREAM/NORTHERN STREAM AND PAC ENERGY OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY LIFTING INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC MON
NIGHT/TUE. THE RESULT WILL BE A BOMBING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TAKING A SIMILAR PATH AS THE UPPER ENERGY. AHEAD OF IT...DEEP S/SW
FLOW...WITH 70-75 KT LLJ...WILL BRING A MOIST AIRMASS (PW 3-4 STD
ABOVE NORMAL) INTO THE REGION UP AND OVER AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN NIGHT THRU MON MORNING. A
BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING INDICATE SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF TRI-STATE. RAIN
SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY MON AS WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH...WITH
REGION WARM SECTORED IN ITS WAKE.

UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS...15-20 DEG ABOVE SEASONABLE...POSSIBLE
ACROSS INTERIOR MON AFT. A TIGHT SW GRADIENT AND CONTINUED HEALTHY
LLJ OF 40-45 KT AT 950 MB SHOULD RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND AREAS N&W OF NYC MON WITH ANY BREAKS OF SUN AND
RESULTANT DEEPER MIXED LAYER. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MON
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACCOMPANYING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE...AND THEN CAA IN ITS WAKE LATE.

TRANQUIL AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS ON TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THEN POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR A COASTAL STORM IMPACTING THE
REGION WED/WED NIGHT...BUT UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE DRIVER FOR THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE PHASING NORTHERN
STREAM AND PAC ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF DEEP CENTRAL US
TROUGHING EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THE ENERGY PIVOTING UP THE COAST
MIDWEEK AS IT PHASES WITH YET ANOTHER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. DIFFERENCES EXIST MORE SO WITH THE DEGREE OF
THIS SECOND INTERACTION...AFFECTING HOW NEGATIVELY TILTED ANS
STRONG THE TROUGH BECOMES. THE RESULT IS SOME TIMING...BUT MAINLY
TRACK DIFFERENCES WITH HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF TRACKS TO THE REGION WED NIGHT. FOR NOW
HAVE PLAYED A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TRACK BETWEEN OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH WOULD TRACK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE 40/70
LAT/LON BENCHMARK WED NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR A
RAIN/SNOW COAST...SNOW INTERIOR ON WED...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WED
NIGHT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND
TRACK NORTH. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TALK ABOUT SNOW AMOUNTS AND
LOCATION...BUT AT THIS POINT A LOW POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW FOR A PORTION OF THE TRI-STATE.

THEREAFTER...MODELS ARE STILL DIVERGENT OVER WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE
STORM...BUT IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN ITS WAKE EITHER DUE TO A LINGERING TROUGH
BEHIND THE LOW...OR ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES LATER TODAY.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03Z MONDAY. LOW CHANCE FOR POCKETS OF -FZRA
TOWARDS DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AT KSWF WITH MVFR CIGS...BUT PROB
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 8-12 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH 45-50 KT WINDS AT 2000-3000
FT...WILL KEEP LLWS IN THE TAFS THROUGH AROUND 13Z. IF THESE WINDS
MIX DOWN...AS APPEARS TO BE HAPPENING AT KGON...THEN SW WINDS WOULD
RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.

WINDS DIMINISH AFTER 13Z...AND WILL RANGE FROM 7-10 KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT POSSIBLE SEA BREEZES AT
KHPN TO KGON WITH LI SOUND TEMPS IN THE 40S. THIS WOULD BACK WINDS
TO AROUND 170 TRUE AFT 17Z. WINDS WILL OTHERWISE BACK TO THE SOUTH
TOWARDS EVENING.

CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BETWEEN 03-06Z MONDAY AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.TONIGHT-MONDAY...IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN/FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE WITH 50 KT
WINDS 1500-2000 FT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH 20-35 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15
KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH PASSAGE OF
COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR THE INTERIOR...
BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST BASED ON TRACK
OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS UP. MARGINAL CONDS IN WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND
AND NEW YORK HARBOR. A FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI SOUND. HOWEVER...THESE GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...SO WILL NOT UPGRADE TO GALE
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
QUITE POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...WITH SCA
CRITERIA ELSEWHERE. WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH BEGINNING LATE AT NIGHT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.

ROUGH OCEAN SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY BEFORE BUILDING YET AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING
THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH MON BRINGING THE THREAT OF GALES.
BETTER OVERALL CHANCES WOULD BE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT THIS COULD
EXPAND TO THE OTHER ZONES. GALE WATCH FOR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MON.

SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS LATER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS
THEN BECOME MORE PROBABLE LATER WED THRU THU AS A COASTAL STORM
TRACKS TO THE SE OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A QUICK HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY THE MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS
EVENT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE AROUND AN INCH.
ANY MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LOCALLY.

A LOW POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS WED INTO
WED NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST MON HIGH TEMPS

NEWARK..............75/1979..................70
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..................65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..................68
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..................69
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.................67
ISLIP...............63/2001..................65

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-340-345-355.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KBTV 230540
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1240 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST SUNDAY...INFLUX OF WARM AIR CONTINUES IN THE
MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW...WITH VAD WIND PROFILES SHOWING 850MB
WINDS AT 35-45KTS. TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION RANGE FROM MID 30S
TO LOW 40S. THERE ARE STILL SOME AREAS NEAR FREEZING SUCH AT THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS - TPK AT 32 DEGREES- AND PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. BEST POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIX/FREEZING
RAIN AND SOME VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
ISOLATED/SPOTTY AREAS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM, ESPECIALLY IN
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE S/SW FLOW CANNOT SCOUR OUT COLDER
AIR. THUS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE WHILE
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY FROM NRN NY EASTWARD INTO
VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KLSK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-
     004-007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
MARINE...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KOKX 230530
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1230 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS TO
OUR NORTH MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS BEHIND IT
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION
TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN LINGERS NEAR
THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. WILL ADJUST HOURLY
TEMPS/DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS...WHICH SEEM TO BE A BIT
WARMER THAN FORECAST. WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND FOR A FEW HOURS...AND
WILL RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A DEGREE OR SO.

OTHERWISE...WEAK SHORTWAVE PASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT IN
ZONAL FLOW...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT LIQUID PRECIP. CLOUD COVER AND WAA SW
FLOW SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY OR ONLY
SLOWLY DROP OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS OF LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT TO DROP TO AROUND FREEZING IN A FEW
SPOTS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD ABOVE FREEZING THERE.
FORECAST TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR SO TOO COLD. FREEZING RAIN
THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOW AND SPARSE AT WORST ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS...BUT WILL BE MONITORED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RIDGING SUNDAY OCCURS AHEAD OF DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES AND DEEPENS OVER THE MID PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
DEEPENING LOW MARCHES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE AT
NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...ANY MORNING CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SW WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S MOST LOCALES...CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

THEN TEMPS REMAIN STEADY IN THE EVENING BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.

RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY WEEK...WITH
PHASING SOUTHERN STREAM/NORTHERN STREAM AND PAC ENERGY OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY LIFTING INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC MON
NIGHT/TUE. THE RESULT WILL BE A BOMBING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TAKING A SIMILAR PATH AS THE UPPER ENERGY. AHEAD OF IT...DEEP S/SW
FLOW...WITH 70-75 KT LLJ...WILL BRING A MOIST AIRMASS (PW 3-4 STD
ABOVE NORMAL) INTO THE REGION UP AND OVER AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN NIGHT THRU MON MORNING. A
BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING INDICATE SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF TRI-STATE. RAIN
SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY MON AS WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH...WITH
REGION WARM SECTORED IN ITS WAKE.

UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS...15-20 DEG ABOVE SEASONABLE...POSSIBLE
ACROSS INTERIOR MON AFT. A TIGHT SW GRADIENT AND CONTINUED HEALTHY
LLJ OF 40-45 KT AT 950 MB SHOULD RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND AREAS N&W OF NYC MON WITH ANY BREAKS OF SUN AND
RESULTANT DEEPER MIXED LAYER. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MON
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACCOMPANYING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE...AND THEN CAA IN ITS WAKE LATE.

TRANQUIL AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS ON TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THEN POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR A COASTAL STORM IMPACTING THE
REGION WED/WED NIGHT...BUT UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE DRIVER FOR THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE PHASING NORTHERN
STREAM AND PAC ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF DEEP CENTRAL US
TROUGHING EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THE ENERGY PIVOTING UP THE COAST
MIDWEEK AS IT PHASES WITH YET ANOTHER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. DIFFERENCES EXIST MORE SO WITH THE DEGREE OF
THIS SECOND INTERACTION...AFFECTING HOW NEGATIVELY TILTED ANS
STRONG THE TROUGH BECOMES. THE RESULT IS SOME TIMING...BUT MAINLY
TRACK DIFFERENCES WITH HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF TRACKS TO THE REGION WED NIGHT. FOR NOW
HAVE PLAYED A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TRACK BETWEEN OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH WOULD TRACK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE 40/70
LAT/LON BENCHMARK WED NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR A
RAIN/SNOW COAST...SNOW INTERIOR ON WED...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WED
NIGHT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND
TRACK NORTH. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TALK ABOUT SNOW AMOUNTS AND
LOCATION...BUT AT THIS POINT A LOW POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW FOR A PORTION OF THE TRI-STATE.

THEREAFTER...MODELS ARE STILL DIVERGENT OVER WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE
STORM...BUT IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN ITS WAKE EITHER DUE TO A LINGERING TROUGH
BEHIND THE LOW...OR ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES LATER TODAY.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03Z MONDAY. LOW CHANCE FOR POCKETS OF -FZRA
TOWARDS DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AT KSWF WITH MVFR CIGS...BUT PROB
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 8-12 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH 45-50 KT WINDS AT 2000-3000
FT...WILL KEEP LLWS IN THE TAFS THROUGH AROUND 13Z. IF THESE WINDS
MIX DOWN...AS APPEARS TO BE HAPPENING AT KGON...THEN SW WINDS WOULD
RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT G