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000
FXUS61 KOKX 201430
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1030 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...AND THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A STORM SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA
CONTINUES TO PRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND WILL BECOME
CENTERED OVER CAPE COD LATER TODAY.

AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH...THE SKY WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT DURING
THE DAY. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST THIS MORNING...THEN TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WILL USHER A COOLER
AIRMASS INTO MOST OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN HIGHS ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THAT OF SATURDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW 60S TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES KEEPS CONDITIONS QUIET THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW...HIGHS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL TOP OFF
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT COASTAL AREAS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
TUESDAY. TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AWAY FROM NYC
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S. OTHERWISE...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 40S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER
40S.

COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE
EVENING. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL CAP POPS AT LIKELY...AND WILL FOCUS ON
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE...DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AS IT
NEGATIVELY TILTS ON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN ASSOCIATED COLD POOL BUILDING
IN ALOFT...DUE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE W/SLIGHT CHANCE E OF LIGHT RAIN BY
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

A NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW MOVES TO SE QUEBEC/SW ONTARIO BY LATE
SATURDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF IT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WARRANTING CHANCE POPS THIS TIME FRAME.
FOR NOW IT APPEARS WARM FRONT WILL PROBABLY STAY TO THE S FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN LIFT TO THE N SATURDAY MORNING...SO WENT WITH RAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR.

FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. BASED ON THIS...FORECASTING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

GENERALLY E-SE FLOW...ALTHOUGH KLGA WILL LIKELY HAVE NE FLOW
CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING MORE EASTERLY. WINDS
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. THE
WIND SPEED LOWERS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHRA BECOMING LIKELY...WITH
MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR.
NW-N WIND G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. NW-N WIND G20-25 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS SEAS
STRUGGLE TO REACH 5 FT. AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA GUSTS...AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE LIES ACROSS THE REGION.

SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH A CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA GUSTS
AND OCEAN SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
AND EASTERN WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY IN GUSTY
NW WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING COASTAL LOW. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY SUNDAY EXPECTED WITH MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT.
NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY...AND THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE. A FEW
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE QPF WILL BE LESS THAN
1/4 INCH AND NOT POSE FLOODING ISSUES.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MALOIT/JM
MARINE...BC/MALOIT/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MPS








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000
FXUS61 KBUF 201426
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1026 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER
TO THE REGION TODAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND EXPANDING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PLEASANT CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE
WITH JUST A FEW PASSING THIN/WISPY CIRRUS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT
850 HPA WARM TO AROUND +4 TO +8C EAST TO WEST AND THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD 60S TO THE REGION. WARMEST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE A FEW OF THE WARMEST AREAS IN THE MID GENESEE
VALLEY MAY PUSH 70.

THE FAR EASTERN EXTENT OF A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A MIDWEST STORM
SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE REGION. THICKEST CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND NORTHWARD. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. A FEW
UPPER 30S WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE STATE LINE UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL BE MAINTAINED MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MORE
SUNSHINE SHOULD BE SEEN DURING THE FIRST HALF THE DAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS FILTERING SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME IN A WELL MIXED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BUT PROBABLY HOLDING IN THE
60S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND EVEN COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE
SHORE AREAS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP THE GREAT
LAKES...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE HURON AND INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION. FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z TUESDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ARRIVES AND SOME ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMIC GET INVOLVED. FRONTAL
MOVEMENT LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH THE LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO A
HALF INCH OR LESS. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK AT THIS POINT WITH ANY
THUNDER THREAT VERY LOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES END BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THIS MAY BE
TEMPORARY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.
SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILES WITHIN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME MAY
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES...
ESPECIALLY OVER FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. CRITICAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST A LOW PROBABILITY OF A MIX WITH
SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST LOCATIONS TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE INTO
CHANGEABLE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE IT WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL ON WEDNESDAY...RIDGING OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL PUSH
EAST AND BOOST OUR MERCURY BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME
DETAILS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH SUBSEQUENT MID LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND QUITE COOL THOUGH
AS H85 TEMPS OF -5C WILL HOLD OUR AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S F. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS POINT IN THE SEASON
ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

THE SFC HIGH WILL EASE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR STAR GAZING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND MODERATING H85 TEMPS
LEADING TO PLEASANT WARMING FOR THURSDAY. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...THE DOOR
WILL BE OPEN FOR A PACIFIC BASED COOL FRONT TO CROSS THE LOWER
LAKES. SOME SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT AND ITS SUPPORTING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH THE REGION.

THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY...PROLONGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT 12Z ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A GENERAL LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHRA ACTIVITY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND NEW ENGLAND TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY WILL BRING MINIMAL WAVES ON THE LAKES AND JUST A GENTLE
BREEZE ACROSS BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS





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000
FXUS61 KBTV 201413
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1013 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PROVIDE REGION WITH A WARM DAY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE AREA
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1013 AM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST FOR A NICE DAY ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WELL ON TRACK THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
INTACT OVER THE NORTHEAST REGION...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO AND A COASTAL LOW IN THE CAROLINAS
REGION. TEMPS ON TRACK FROM MORNING LOWS. HIGH TEMPS ON TRACK AND
WILL BE AIDED BY INCR SOUTHERLY FETCH AS DAY PROGRESSES WITH SFC
RIDGE PUSHING OFFSHORE. HAVE INCREASED CLD COVER A BIT FOR N NY AS
SOME OF THE CLDS AHEAD OF FRONT MAY WORK INTO THAT AREA DURING THE
DAY...BUT SHOULDN`T IMPACT OVERALL EXPECTED CONDITIONS THRU THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT CLOUDS AFFECT OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30S...THOUGH WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER DUE TO CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY. WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE OUR
AREA WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY...TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW AND ESPECIALLY ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER
WHICH IS THE AREA CLOSEST TO THE WARM FRONT. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL REMAIN MILD WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND SOME
PRECIP MOVING INTO THE AREA. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...THEN CONTINUING TO TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARMER THAN NORMAL
TREND. ONE THIRD TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...NO HYDRO CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START AND END WITH
CHANCES OF RAIN...BUT TWO RELATIVELY NICE SPRING DAYS WILL BE
FEATURED IN BETWEEN.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT AS A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL SLOWING OF THE
FEATURES AS THEY PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION. THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SHOWERS IS
LIKELY FROM LATE TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING
OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PLACEMENT OF THE
LOW WILL DETERMINE LENGTH AND AMOUNT OF RAIN...BUT AS NOTED IN THE
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...ONE THIRD TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH LOOKS
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL POST-FRONTAL-
PASSAGE IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...HOWEVER CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL LIMIT HOW COOL IT
GETS TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE LOOKING AT MOSTLY 30S AND LOW 40S.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES AT THE TAIL-
END OF PRECIP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS
COMBINED WITH MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND
OROGRAPHIC RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. AS A RESULT
WE`LL ALSO BE LOOKING AT A BELOW NORMAL DAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...44-54F FOR HIGHS. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND A NICE DAY/COOL
NIGHTS. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH NIGHTS. BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SO WE`LL BE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE. THE LOW WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S AND 40S AND
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY AND SLIDING EASTWARD TONIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO IMPACT EXPECTED
WITH ALL CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 12K FEET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING TURN SOUTHERLY FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FROM 5-15
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI







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000
FXUS61 KALY 201402
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1002 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MILD AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION STAYS ENTRENCHED. JUST
SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. IT WILL BE A
MILD DAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS OUR DESPITE THE LOW CENTER TRACKING
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AS CLOUDS START TO
INCREASE ACRS THE FA.

ON TUESDAY MORNING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING FROM THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS OUR REGION AND THEN OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A
QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IN MOST AREAS WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH. H10-H8 THETA E RIDGE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
ACRS THE FA AT 18Z TUESDAY AND AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT THAT IT MAY TAP SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE.
EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND TAPER
OFF DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. A LITTLE SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BEFORE THE PCPN TAPERS OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO START...AND END
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...WITH A PERIOD OF DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
DIGGING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR WED-EARLY THU...WHICH MAY FORM
A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. WEAK DISTURBANCES DROPPING INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THIS DIGGING TROUGH SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS
SOME SHOWERS AROUND FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION WED-WED NT. THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE FURTHER EAST ON THU...AS A NARROW RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER FOR THU-THU NT...ALONG WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO
NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.

FOR FRI-SAT...ANOTHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CLOUDS...AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM FRI AFTERNOON
INTO SAT. TEMPS MAY GET CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON FRI BEFORE
CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SAT DUE TO CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

HERE ARE SOME ADDITIONAL SPECIFICS...

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT THANKS TO THE
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE AS LOW AS -6
DEGREES OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 40S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER/MID 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALONG WITH GUSTY W-NW WINDS. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...THANKS TO PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SOME SHOWERS
OF WET SNOW/GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER TEMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLY
COOL FOR WED/THURS NIGHT WITH 30S...SOME 20S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
IT MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY ON THU...AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT TIGHT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING OFFSHORE STORM
SYSTEM...AND THE HIGH BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

FRI-SAT...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL RETURN THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
REGION FOR SOMETIME LATE FRI INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THE DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH...AS
SOME MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW IT MUCH SLOWER DUE TO THE SYSTEM
CUTTING OFF AT 500 HPA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHC POPS FOR LATE FRI
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS LOOK WARM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
VALLEY TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR FRIDAY...AND LOW TO MID 60S
ON SATURDAY. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S...EXCEPT
FOR SOME 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS EVENING. ONLY OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...BECOMING A BIT MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL THEN TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BY
MID TO LATE MORNING...AT 5-10 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
AT MOST TAF SITES BY SUNSET...BUT SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT
KALB AT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY ISOLATED SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON RANGING
FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 60 TO 90
PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUMS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 25 TO
35 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL IS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY FALL. BASED ON
THE LATEST FORECAST...IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 2 PM.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION/RAIN ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
REGION. QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/11
HYDROLOGY...11







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBGM 201343
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
943 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. OTHER THAN
OCCASIONAL THIN HIGH CLOUDS...THIS WILL ALLOW SUNSHINE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
VALUES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY FURTHER WARMING MONDAY. OUR NEXT RAIN
ARRIVES TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
930 AM UPDATE...
ACTIVE WV IMAGERY THIS MRNG WITH H5 LOWS AND/OR TROFS WORKING ACRS
NRN CANADA, SERN U.S. COAST, SRN PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
CWA IS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT THIS TIME WITH SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE.
EXPECT TEMPS WL BEGIN TO CLIMB RAPIDLY UNDER STRONG WAA AS H9
TEMPS RISE TO NR +8C BY 18Z TDA. 925MB TEMPS PROGGED TO CLIMB TO
+10C BY 21Z, LEADING TO MAXES IN THE LOW/MID 60S TDA. NO CHGS
NEEDED TO GRIDS WITH MRNG UPDATE.

PREV DISCO BLO...

630 AM UPDATE...
VEIL OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS PERSISTED MOST OF THE NIGHT OVER
PA/SOUTHERN NY...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT THEY ARE NOW DIMINISHING. THAT WILL BE THE
ONLY IMPACT FROM THAT DISTANT SYSTEM FOR OUR REGION...WITH THE
BROAD SURFACE HIGH NOW BUILDING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES MUCH MORE DOMINANT OF OUR WEATHER. A NORTHERN STREAM COLD
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY WHILE SETTLING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA TO LAKE ONTARIO-NORTHEAST NY MONDAY...A NON-PLAYER FOR OUR
REGION...ALLOWING CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TO OCCUR.

WHILE STILL A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT OVERALL...THE HIGH
THIN CLOUDS SOMEWHAT LIMITED THE TEMPERATURE DROPOFF DURING THESE
PREDAWN HOURS IN NEPA...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS WYOMING VALLEY WHICH
STAYED ABOVE FREEZING. UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IS MORE COMMON IN
CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH COLDEST READINGS IN
ELMIRA AT 26 DEGREES AND NORWICH AT 27 DEGREES.

DESPITE THE COOL START...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY GET UNDERWAY
AS EVIDENCED BY SURGE IN 925-850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE MODELS.
SURFACE RIDGE BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG THE COAST...ENCOURAGING
ESTABLISHMENT OF RETURN FLOW AND THUS WARMING GETTING REALIZED
EVEN AT THE SURFACE LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD
MANAGE JUST A HAIR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY TODAY...AND MUCH MORE SO INTO
MONDAY AS FURTHER WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS. UPPER 50S-MID 60S
TODAY...MID 60S-LOW 70S MONDAY WITH COOLEST READINGS BOTH DAYS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS-TUG HILL PLATEAU. LOWS
TONIGHT 30S TO NEAR 40...MILDEST ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY MODERATELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MOISTURE PROFILES ON BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK AND HAVE A PRETTY
GOOD CHANCE AT ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES REGION BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WE MADE ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES TO CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THIS
PERIOD WITH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING THE UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENING WITH TIME. SHOWERS
BECOME MORE LIKELY FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
IF ALL GOES AS PLANNED...SHOULD BE PASSING INTO EASTERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AN INTERESTING SHOT OF SUB FREEZING AIR
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON A FRESH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SUGGESTS A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE APRIL. CONDITIONS MODERATE FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...AND PROBABLY MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT AND
FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE DRIFT INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT THE DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE ON
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. EACH WEATHER FEATURE APPEARS
TO BE RATHER WEAK WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...AND IT SEEMS AS THOUGH
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH A HALF INCH FOR THE WHOLE 7
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR ALL TERMINALS. OCCASIONAL HIGH THIN CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 20 KFT
AGL. HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MON THROUGH MON NGT...VFR.

TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERY FRONT PASSES TUE...THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO WED MRNG ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
130 AM UPDATE...
THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH WIND TODAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY...WELL
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP EVEN LOWER...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
THAT TREND CONTINUES MONDAY...WITH FURTHER WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND FAIRLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY YET LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...A
WETTING RAIN IS ON THE WAY WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/PVN
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 201136
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
736 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...AND THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A STORM SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK. WILL UPDATE HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
DRIFT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS
FOR THE SKY TO CLEAR OUT.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO PRESS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER CAPE COD
LATER TODAY.

AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH...THE SKY WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT DURING
THE DAY. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST THIS MORNING...THEN TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WILL USHER A COOLER
AIRMASS INTO MOST OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN HIGHS ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THAT OF SATURDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW 60S TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES KEEPS CONDITIONS QUIET THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW...HIGHS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL TOP OFF
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT COASTAL AREAS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
TUESDAY. TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AWAY FROM NYC
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S. OTHERWISE...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 40S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER
40S.

COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE
EVENING. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL CAP POPS AT LIKELY...AND WILL FOCUS ON
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE...DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AS IT
NEGATIVELY TILTS ON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN ASSOCIATED COLD POOL BUILDING
IN ALOFT...DUE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE W/SLIGHT CHANCE E OF LIGHT RAIN BY
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

A NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW MOVES TO SE QUEBEC/SW ONTARIO BY LATE
SATURDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF IT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WARRANTING CHANCE POPS THIS TIME FRAME.
FOR NOW IT APPEARS WARM FRONT WILL PROBABLY STAY TO THE S FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN LIFT TO THE N SATURDAY MORNING...SO WENT WITH RAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR.

FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. BASED ON THIS...FORECASTING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS VEER FROM NE-ENE TO E BY MID MORNING...THEN TO SE BY EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 8-13 KT FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS...AND 10 KT OR LESS FOR INLAND TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHRA BECOMING LIKELY...WITH
MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR.
NW-N WIND G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. NW-N WIND G20-25 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING EAST...A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ON THE WATERS TODAY. NOT EXPECTING SCA GUSTS...BUT SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT. WILL CONVERT SCA TO SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...AND WILL RUN IT THROUGH TODAY.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE LIES ACROSS THE REGION.

SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH A CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA GUSTS
AND OCEAN SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
AND EASTERN WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY IN GUSTY
NW WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING COASTAL LOW. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY SUNDAY EXPECTED WITH MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT.
NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY...AND THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE.

WITH DRY FINE FUELS...THIS WILL POSE ANOTHER DAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE QPF WILL BE LESS THAN
1/4 INCH AND NOT POSE FLOODING ISSUES.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MPS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 201135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
735 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PROVIDE REGION WITH A WARM DAY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE AREA
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 726 AM EDT SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY
OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WARM SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM ALONG WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MAXING OUT IN THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT CLOUDS AFFECT OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30S...THOUGH WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER DUE TO CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY. WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE OUR
AREA WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY...TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW AND ESPECIALLY ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER
WHICH IS THE AREA CLOSEST TO THE WARM FRONT. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL REMAIN MILD WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND SOME
PRECIP MOVING INTO THE AREA. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...THEN CONTINUING TO TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARMER THAN NORMAL
TREND. ONE THIRD TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...NO HYDRO CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START AND END WITH
CHANCES OF RAIN...BUT TWO RELATIVELY NICE SPRING DAYS WILL BE
FEATURED IN BETWEEN.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT AS A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL SLOWING OF THE
FEATURES AS THEY PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION. THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SHOWERS IS
LIKELY FROM LATE TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING
OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PLACEMENT OF THE
LOW WILL DETERMINE LENGTH AND AMOUNT OF RAIN...BUT AS NOTED IN THE
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...ONE THIRD TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH LOOKS
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL POST-FRONTAL-
PASSAGE IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...HOWEVER CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL LIMIT HOW COOL IT
GETS TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE LOOKING AT MOSTLY 30S AND LOW 40S.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES AT THE TAIL-
END OF PRECIP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS
COMBINED WITH MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND
OROGRAPHIC RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. AS A RESULT
WE`LL ALSO BE LOOKING AT A BELOW NORMAL DAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...44-54F FOR HIGHS. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND A NICE DAY/COOL
NIGHTS. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH NIGHTS. BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SO WE`LL BE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE. THE LOW WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S AND 40S AND
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY AND SLIDING EASTWARD TONIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO IMPACT EXPECTED
WITH ALL CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 12K FEET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING TURN SOUTHERLY FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FROM 5-15
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBUF 201120
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
720 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER
TO THE REGION TODAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND EXPANDING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PLEASANT CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850
HPA WARM TO AROUND +4 TO +8C EAST TO WEST AND THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD 60S TO THE REGION. WARMEST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE FAR EASTERN EXTENT OF A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A MIDWEST STORM
SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE REGION. THICKEST CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND NORTHWARD. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. A FEW
UPPER 30S WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE STATE LINE UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL BE MAINTAINED MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MORE
SUNSHINE SHOULD BE SEEN DURING THE FIRST HALF THE DAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS FILTERING SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME IN A WELL MIXED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BUT PROBABLY HOLDING IN THE
60S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND EVEN COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE
SHORE AREAS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP THE GREAT
LAKES...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE HURON AND INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION. FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z TUESDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ARRIVES AND SOME ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMIC GET INVOLVED. FRONTAL
MOVEMENT LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH THE LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO A
HALF INCH OR LESS. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK AT THIS POINT WITH ANY
THUNDER THREAT VERY LOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES END BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THIS MAY BE
TEMPORARY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.
SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILES WITHIN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME MAY
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES...
ESPECIALLY OVER FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. CRITICAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST A LOW PROBABILITY OF A MIX WITH
SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST LOCATIONS TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE INTO
CHANGEABLE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE IT WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL ON WEDNESDAY...RIDGING OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL PUSH
EAST AND BOOST OUR MERCURY BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME
DETAILS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH SUBSEQUENT MID LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND QUITE COOL THOUGH
AS H85 TEMPS OF -5C WILL HOLD OUR AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S F. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS POINT IN THE SEASON
ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

THE SFC HIGH WILL EASE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR STAR GAZING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND MODERATING H85 TEMPS
LEADING TO PLEASANT WARMING FOR THURSDAY. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...THE DOOR
WILL BE OPEN FOR A PACIFIC BASED COOL FRONT TO CROSS THE LOWER
LAKES. SOME SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT AND ITS SUPPORTING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH THE REGION.

THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY...PROLONGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT 12Z ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A GENERAL LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHRA ACTIVITY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND NEW ENGLAND TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY WILL BRING MINIMAL WAVES ON THE LAKES AND JUST A GENTLE
BREEZE ACROSS BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 201056
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
656 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PROVIDE REGION WITH A WARM DAY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE AREA
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY
OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WARM SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM ALONG WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MAXING OUT IN THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT CLOUDS AFFECT OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30S...THOUGH WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER DUE TO CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY. WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE OUR
AREA WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY...TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW AND ESPECIALLY ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER
WHICH IS THE AREA CLOSEST TO THE WARM FRONT. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL REMAIN MILD WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND SOME
PRECIP MOVING INTO THE AREA. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...THEN CONTINUING TO TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARMER THAN NORMAL
TREND. ONE THIRD TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...NO HYDRO CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START AND END WITH
CHANCES OF RAIN...BUT TWO RELATIVELY NICE SPRING DAYS WILL BE
FEATURED IN BETWEEN.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT AS A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL SLOWING OF THE
FEATURES AS THEY PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION. THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SHOWERS IS
LIKELY FROM LATE TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING
OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PLACEMENT OF THE
LOW WILL DETERMINE LENGTH AND AMOUNT OF RAIN...BUT AS NOTED IN THE
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...ONE THIRD TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH LOOKS
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL POST-FRONTAL-
PASSAGE IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...HOWEVER CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL LIMIT HOW COOL IT
GETS TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE LOOKING AT MOSTLY 30S AND LOW 40S.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES AT THE TAIL-
END OF PRECIP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS
COMBINED WITH MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND
OROGRAPHIC RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. AS A RESULT
WE`LL ALSO BE LOOKING AT A BELOW NORMAL DAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...44-54F FOR HIGHS. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND A NICE DAY/COOL
NIGHTS. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH NIGHTS. BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SO WE`LL BE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE. THE LOW WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S AND 40S AND
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY AND SLIDING EASTWARD TONIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO IMPACT EXPECTED
WITH ALL CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 12K FEET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING TURN SOUTHERLY FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FROM 5-15
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBGM 201035
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
635 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. OTHER THAN
OCCASIONAL THIN HIGH CLOUDS...THIS WILL ALLOW SUNSHINE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
VALUES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY FURTHER WARMING MONDAY. OUR NEXT RAIN
ARRIVES TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...
VEIL OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS PERSISTED MOST OF THE NIGHT OVER
PA/SOUTHERN NY...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT THEY ARE NOW DIMINISHING. THAT WILL BE THE
ONLY IMPACT FROM THAT DISTANT SYSTEM FOR OUR REGION...WITH THE
BROAD SURFACE HIGH NOW BUILDING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES MUCH MORE DOMINANT OF OUR WEATHER. A NORTHERN STREAM COLD
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY WHILE SETTLING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA TO LAKE ONTARIO-NORTHEAST NY MONDAY...A NON-PLAYER FOR OUR
REGION...ALLOWING CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TO OCCUR.

WHILE STILL A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT OVERALL...THE HIGH
THIN CLOUDS SOMEWHAT LIMITED THE TEMPERATURE DROPOFF DURING THESE
PREDAWN HOURS IN NEPA...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS WYOMING VALLEY WHICH
STAYED ABOVE FREEZING. UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IS MORE COMMON IN
CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH COLDEST READINGS IN
ELMIRA AT 26 DEGREES AND NORWICH AT 27 DEGREES.

DESPITE THE COOL START...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY GET UNDERWAY
AS EVIDENCED BY SURGE IN 925-850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE MODELS.
SURFACE RIDGE BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG THE COAST...ENCOURAGING
ESTABLISHMENT OF RETURN FLOW AND THUS WARMING GETTING REALIZED
EVEN AT THE SURFACE LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD
MANAGE JUST A HAIR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY TODAY...AND MUCH MORE SO INTO
MONDAY AS FURTHER WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS. UPPER 50S-MID 60S
TODAY...MID 60S-LOW 70S MONDAY WITH COOLEST READINGS BOTH DAYS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS-TUG HILL PLATEAU. LOWS
TONIGHT 30S TO NEAR 40...MILDEST ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY MODERATELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MOISTURE PROFILES ON BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK AND HAVE A PRETTY
GOOD CHANCE AT ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES REGION BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WE MADE ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES TO CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THIS
PERIOD WITH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING THE UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENING WITH TIME. SHOWERS
BECOME MORE LIKELY FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
IF ALL GOES AS PLANNED...SHOULD BE PASSING INTO EASTERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AN INTERESTING SHOT OF SUB FREEZING AIR
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON A FRESH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SUGGESTS A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE APRIL. CONDITIONS MODERATE FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...AND PROBABLY MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT AND
FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE DRIFT INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT THE DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE ON
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. EACH WEATHER FEATURE APPEARS
TO BE RATHER WEAK WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...AND IT SEEMS AS THOUGH
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH A HALF INCH FOR THE WHOLE 7
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR ALL TERMINALS. OCCASIONAL HIGH THIN CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 20 KFT
AGL. HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MON THROUGH MON NGT...VFR.

TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERY FRONT PASSES TUE...THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO WED MRNG ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
130 AM UPDATE...
THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH WIND TODAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY...WELL
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP EVEN LOWER...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
THAT TREND CONTINUES MONDAY...WITH FURTHER WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND FAIRLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY YET LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...A
WETTING RAIN IS ON THE WAY WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...MDP







000
FXUS61 KALY 201030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MILD AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY AND COOL CONDITIONS
PREVAILED ACROSS THE FA. THE CIRRUS AHEAD OF THE COASTAL STORM OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST HAS STARTED RETREATING BACK SOUTHWARD...THUS
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION STAYS ENTRENCHED THROUGH
TODAY. IT WILL BE A MILD DAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS OUR DESPITE THE LOW CENTER TRACKING
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AS CLOUDS START TO
INCREASE ACRS THE FA.

ON TUESDAY MORNING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING FROM THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS OUR REGION AND THEN OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A
QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IN MOST AREAS WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH. H10-H8 THETA E RIDGE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
ACRS THE FA AT 18Z TUESDAY AND AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT THAT IT MAY TAP SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE.
EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND TAPER
OFF DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. A LITTLE SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BEFORE THE PCPN TAPERS OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO START...AND END
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...WITH A PERIOD OF DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
DIGGING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR WED-EARLY THU...WHICH MAY FORM
A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. WEAK DISTURBANCES DROPPING INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THIS DIGGING TROUGH SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS
SOME SHOWERS AROUND FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION WED-WED NT. THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE FURTHER EAST ON THU...AS A NARROW RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER FOR THU-THU NT...ALONG WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO
NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.

FOR FRI-SAT...ANOTHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CLOUDS...AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM FRI AFTERNOON
INTO SAT. TEMPS MAY GET CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON FRI BEFORE
CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SAT DUE TO CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

HERE ARE SOME ADDITIONAL SPECIFICS...

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT THANKS TO THE
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE AS LOW AS -6
DEGREES OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 40S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER/MID 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALONG WITH GUSTY W-NW WINDS. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...THANKS TO PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SOME SHOWERS
OF WET SNOW/GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER TEMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLY
COOL FOR WED/THURS NIGHT WITH 30S...SOME 20S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
IT MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY ON THU...AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT TIGHT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING OFFSHORE STORM
SYSTEM...AND THE HIGH BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

FRI-SAT...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL RETURN THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
REGION FOR SOMETIME LATE FRI INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THE DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH...AS
SOME MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW IT MUCH SLOWER DUE TO THE SYSTEM
CUTTING OFF AT 500 HPA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHC POPS FOR LATE FRI
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS LOOK WARM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
VALLEY TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR FRIDAY...AND LOW TO MID 60S
ON SATURDAY. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S...EXCEPT
FOR SOME 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS EVENING. ONLY OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...BECOMING A BIT MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL THEN TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BY
MID TO LATE MORNING...AT 5-10 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
AT MOST TAF SITES BY SUNSET...BUT SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT
KALB AT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY ISOLATED SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON RANGING
FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 60 TO 90
PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUMS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 25 TO
35 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL IS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY FALL. BASED ON
THE LATEST FORECAST...IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 2 PM.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION/RAIN ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
REGION. QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/11
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KOKX 201012
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
612 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...AND THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A STORM SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK. WILL UPDATE HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST SFC
OBS AND IR SAT IMG. CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DRIFT SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS FOR SKIES TO CLEAR
OUT.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO PRESS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER CAPE COD LATER
TODAY.

AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT DURING
THE DAY. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST...AND THEN TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WILL USHER A COOLER
AIRMASS INTO MOST OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN HIGHS ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THAT OF SATURDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW 60S TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES KEEPS CONDITIONS QUIET THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW...HIGHS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL TOP OFF
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT COASTAL AREAS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
TUESDAY. TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AWAY FROM NYC
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S. OTHERWISE...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 40S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER
40S.

COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE
EVENING. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL CAP POPS AT LIKELY...AND WILL FOCUS ON
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE...DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AS IT
NEGATIVELY TILTS ON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN ASSOCIATED COLD POOL BUILDING
IN ALOFT...DUE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE W/SLIGHT CHANCE E OF LIGHT RAIN BY
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

A NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW MOVES TO SE QUEBEC/SW ONTARIO BY LATE
SATURDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF IT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WARRANTING CHANCE POPS THIS TIME FRAME.
FOR NOW IT APPEARS WARM FRONT WILL PROBABLY STAY TO THE S FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN LIFT TO THE N SATURDAY MORNING...SO WENT WITH RAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR.

FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. BASED ON THIS...FORECASTING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS SLOWLY VEER FROM NE-ENE TO E BY 12-14Z...THEN SE BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 8-13 KT FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS...AND 10 KT OR LESS FOR INLAND TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING FOR ALL BUT KJFK AND KLGA.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHRA BECOMING LIKELY...WITH
MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR.
NW-N WIND G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. NW-N WIND G20-25 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING EAST...A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ON THE WATERS TODAY. NOT EXPECTING SCA GUSTS...BUT SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT. WILL CONVERT SCA TO SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...AND WILL RUN IT THROUGH TODAY.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE LIES ACROSS THE REGION.

SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH A CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA GUSTS
AND OCEAN SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
AND EASTERN WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY IN GUSTY
NW WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING COASTAL LOW. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY SUNDAY EXPECTED WITH MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT.
NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY...AND THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE.

WITH DRY FINE FUELS...THIS WILL POSE ANOTHER DAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE QPF WILL BE LESS THAN
1/4 INCH AND NOT POSE FLOODING ISSUES.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MPS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 200849
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
449 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...AND THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A STORM SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO PRESS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER CAPE COD LATER TODAY.

AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH...ANY CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD
BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH...AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY.
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST...AND THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST
BY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WILL USHER A COOLER AIRMASS
INTO MOST OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN HIGHS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THAT OF SATURDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
60S TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES KEEPS CONDITIONS QUIET THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW...HIGHS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL TOP OFF IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50S. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY.
TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AWAY FROM NYC WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO FALL INTO THE 20S. OTHERWISE...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S
IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
MONDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE
EVENING. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL CAP POPS AT LIKELY...AND WILL FOCUS ON
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE...DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AS IT
NEGATIVELY TILTS ON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN ASSOCIATED COLD POOL BUILDING
IN ALOFT...DUE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE W/SLIGHT CHANCE E OF LIGHT RAIN BY
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

A NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW MOVES TO SE QUEBEC/SW ONTARIO BY LATE
SATURDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF IT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WARRANTING CHANCE POPS THIS TIME FRAME.
FOR NOW IT APPEARS WARM FRONT WILL PROBABLY STAY TO THE S FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN LIFT TO THE N SATURDAY MORNING...SO WENT WITH RAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR.

FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. BASED ON THIS...FORECASTING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS SLOWLY VEER FROM NE-ENE TO E BY 12-14Z...THEN SE BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 8-13 KT FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS...AND 10 KT OR LESS FOR INLAND TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING FOR ALL BUT KJFK AND KLGA.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHRA BECOMING LIKELY...WITH
MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR.
NW-N WIND G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. NW-N WIND G20-25 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING EAST...A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ON THE WATERS TODAY. NOT EXPECTING SCA GUSTS...BUT SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT. WILL CONVERT SCA TO SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...AND WILL RUN IT THROUGH TODAY.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE LIES ACROSS THE REGION.

SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH A CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA GUSTS
AND OCEAN SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
AND EASTERN WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY IN GUSTY
NW WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING COASTAL LOW. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY SUNDAY EXPECTED WITH MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT.
NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY...AND THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE.

WITH DRY FINE FUELS...THIS WILL POSE ANOTHER DAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE QPF WILL BE LESS THAN
1/4 INCH AND NOT POSE FLOODING ISSUES.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MPS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 200847
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
447 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PROVIDE REGION WITH A WARM DAY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE AREA
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY
OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WARM SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM ALONG WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MAXING OUT IN THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT CLOUDS AFFECT OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30S...THOUGH WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER DUE TO CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY. WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE OUR
AREA WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY...TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW AND ESPECIALLY ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER
WHICH IS THE AREA CLOSEST TO THE WARM FRONT. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL REMAIN MILD WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND SOME
PRECIP MOVING INTO THE AREA. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...THEN CONTINUING TO TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARMER THAN NORMAL
TREND. ONE THIRD TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...NO HYDRO CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START AND END WITH
CHANCES OF RAIN...BUT TWO RELATIVELY NICE SPRING DAYS WILL BE
FEATURED IN BETWEEN.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT AS A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL SLOWING OF THE
FEATURES AS THEY PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION. THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SHOWERS IS
LIKELY FROM LATE TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING
OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PLACEMENT OF THE
LOW WILL DETERMINE LENGTH AND AMOUNT OF RAIN...BUT AS NOTED IN THE
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...ONE THIRD TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH LOOKS
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL POST-FRONTAL-
PASSAGE IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...HOWEVER CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL LIMIT HOW COOL IT
GETS TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE LOOKING AT MOSTLY 30S AND LOW 40S.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES AT THE TAIL-
END OF PRECIP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS
COMBINED WITH MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND
OROGRAPHIC RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. AS A RESULT
WE`LL ALSO BE LOOKING AT A BELOW NORMAL DAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...44-54F FOR HIGHS. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND A NICE DAY/COOL
NIGHTS. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH NIGHTS. BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SO WE`LL BE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE. THE LOW WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S AND 40S AND
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
CEILINGS ALL 12K FEET OR ABOVE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
TURN SOUTHERLY FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FROM 5-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 200837
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
437 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PROVIDE REGION WITH A WARM DAY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE AREA
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY
OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WARM SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM ALONG WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MAXING OUT IN THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT CLOUDS AFFECT OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30S...THOUGH WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER DUE TO CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY. WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE OUR
AREA WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY...TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW AND ESPECIALLY ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER
WHICH IS THE AREA CLOSEST TO THE WARM FRONT. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL REMAIN MILD WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND SOME
PRECIP MOVING INTO THE AREA. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...THEN CONTINUING TO TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARMER THAN NORMAL
TREND. ONE THIRD TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...NO HYDRO CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START AND END WITH
CHANCES OF RAIN...BUT TWO RELATIVELY NICE SPRING DAYS WILL BE
FEATURED IN BETWEEN.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT AS A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL SLOWING OF THE
FEATURES AS THEY PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION. THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL LOW REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SHOWERS
IS LIKELY FROM LATE TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE LENGTH AND AMOUNT OF RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL POST-FRONTAL-PASSAGE IN DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...HOWEVER CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE WILL LIMIT HOW COOL IT GETS TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE
LOOKING AT MOSTLY 30S AND LOW 40S. THIS WILL LIKELY BE COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES AT THE TAIL-END OF PRECIP IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS
COMBINED WITH MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND
OROGRAPHIC RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. AS A RESULT
WE`LL ALSO BE LOOKING AT A BELOW NORMAL DAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...44-54F FOR HIGHS. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND A NICE DAY/COOL
NIGHTS. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH NIGHTS. BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SO WE`LL BE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE. THE LOW WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S AND 40S AND
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
CEILINGS ALL 12K FEET OR ABOVE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
TURN SOUTHERLY FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FROM 5-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI






000
FXUS61 KALY 200747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
347 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MILD AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS AS SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR A THIN VEIL OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL STORM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WHICH WILL HEAD OUT TO SEA. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION BEFORE
HEADING EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. IT WILL BE A MILD DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS OUR DESPITE THE LOW CENTER TRACKING
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AS CLOUDS START TO
INCREASE ACRS THE FA.

ON TUESDAY MORNING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING FROM THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS OUR REGION AND THEN OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A
QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IN MOST AREAS WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH. H10-H8 THETA E RIDGE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
ACRS THE FA AT 18Z TUESDAY AND AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT THAT IT MAY TAP SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE.
EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND TAPER
OFF DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. A LITTLE SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BEFORE THE PCPN TAPERS OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO START...AND END
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...WITH A PERIOD OF DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
DIGGING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR WED-EARLY THU...WHICH MAY FORM
A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. WEAK DISTURBANCES DROPPING INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THIS DIGGING TROUGH SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS
SOME SHOWERS AROUND FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION WED-WED NT. THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE FURTHER EAST ON THU...AS A NARROW RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER FOR THU-THU NT...ALONG WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO
NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.

FOR FRI-SAT...ANOTHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CLOUDS...AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM FRI AFTERNOON
INTO SAT. TEMPS MAY GET CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON FRI BEFORE
CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SAT DUE TO CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

HERE ARE SOME ADDITIONAL SPECIFICS...

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT THANKS TO THE
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE AS LOW AS -6
DEGREES OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 40S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER/MID 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALONG WITH GUSTY W-NW WINDS. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...THANKS TO PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SOME SHOWERS
OF WET SNOW/GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER TEMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLY
COOL FOR WED/THURS NIGHT WITH 30S...SOME 20S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
IT MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY ON THU...AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT TIGHT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING OFFSHORE STORM
SYSTEM...AND THE HIGH BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

FRI-SAT...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL RETURN THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
REGION FOR SOMETIME LATE FRI INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THE DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH...AS
SOME MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW IT MUCH SLOWER DUE TO THE SYSTEM
CUTTING OFF AT 500 HPA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHC POPS FOR LATE FRI
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS LOOK WARM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
VALLEY TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR FRIDAY...AND LOW TO MID 60S
ON SATURDAY. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S...EXCEPT
FOR SOME 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY LATER TODAY. WE ONLY EXPECT OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF
HIGH CLOUDS TO PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 8 KT WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL THEN TREND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BY MID TO LATE MORNING...AT 5-10 KT. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES BY SUNSET...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT KALB AT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON RANGING
FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 60 TO 90
PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUMS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 25 TO
35 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL IS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY FALL. BASED ON
THE LATEST FORECAST...IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 2 PM.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION/RAIN ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
REGION. QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL/FRUGIS
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/IAA








000
FXUS61 KOKX 200737
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
337 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...AND THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A STORM SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO PRESS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER CAPE COD LATER TODAY.

AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH...ANY CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD
BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH...AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY.
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST...AND THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST
BY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WILL USHER A COOLER AIRMASS
INTO MOST OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN HIGHS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THAT OF SATURDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
60S TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES KEEPS CONDS QUIET THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW...HIGHS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL TOP OFF IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50S. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY.
TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS AWAY FROM NYC WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO FALL INTO THE 20S. OTHERWISE...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S
IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
MONDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE
EVENING. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL CAP POPS AT LIKELY...AND WILL FOCUS ON
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE...DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AS IT
NEGATIVELY TILTS ON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN ASSOCIATED COLD POOL BUILDING
IN ALOFT...DUE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE W/SLIGHT CHANCE E OF LIGHT RAIN BY
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

A NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW MOVES TO SE QUEBEC/SW ONTARIO BY LATE
SATURDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF IT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WARRANTING CHANCE POPS THIS TIME FRAME.
FOR NOW IT APPEARS WARM FRONT WILL PROBABLY STAY TO THE S FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN LIFT TO THE N SATURDAY MORNING...SO WENT WITH RAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR.

FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. BASED ON THIS...FORECASTING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS SLOWLY VEER FROM NE EARLY THIS MORNING...TO E BY
12-14Z...THEN SE BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. SPEEDS GENERALLY
AROUND 12 KT FOR COASTAL TERMINALS...AND 10 KT OR LESS FOR INLAND
TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING FOR ALL
BUT KJFK AND KLGA.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHRA BECOMING LIKELY...WITH
MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR.
NW-N WIND G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. NW-N WIND G20-25 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING EAST...A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ON THE WATERS TODAY. NOT EXPECTING SCA GUSTS...BUT SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT. WILL CONVERT SCA TO SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...AND WILL RUN IT THROUGH TODAY.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE LIES ACROSS THE REGION.

SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH A CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA GUSTS
AND OCEAN SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
AND EASTERN WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY IN GUSTY
NW WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING COASTAL LOW. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY SUNDAY EXPECTED WITH MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT.
NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY...AND THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE.

WITH DRY FINE FUELS...THIS WILL POSE ANOTHER DAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE QPF WILL BE LESS THAN
1/4 INCH AND NOT POSE FLOODING ISSUES.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MPS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 200736
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
LEADING TO A RATHER CHILLY MID TO LATE-APRIL NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
THEN REBOUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AND
MILDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THOUGH A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ISN`T UNTIL TUESDAY AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 111 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO CHANGES FOR 130 AM UPDATE...GOING
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

MOSTLY CLR SKIES ACRS FA THUS RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE
ACRS FA. HRLY TMP TRENDS AND MIN T FCST APPEAR TO BE IN-
LINE...THUS NO CHANGES WITH THIS FCST UPDATE.

323 PM DISCUSSION...LATE-AFTERNOON VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
LEFTOVER CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS. THESE WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND UNDER BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT EXPECTED AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE AND UNDER COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION (850 TEMPS FALL
TO AROUND -6C). SOME HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY TOWARD MORNING BUT THOSE WON`T STOP OVERALL IDEA OF STRONG
NOCTURNAL COOLING. 12Z MAV AND MET GUIDANCE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
PRIOR FORECAST AND THUS HAD NO COMPELLING REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH
FROM THAT...WHICH OFFERS LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS FOR THE
CUSTOMARY COLDER SPOTS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS
TO THE MID/UPPER 20S IN THE MILDER VALLEYS. THIS IS ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID/LATE APRIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT SATURDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND
500 MB RIDGE AXIS BISECTS VERMONT. MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWS 850 MB TEMPS TO WARM TO AROUND +1 TO +3C. UNDER AT LEAST
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES (SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FURTHEST
NORTH ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY)...HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT WELL
INTO THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOW 60S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
THE LOWER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE AT LEAST A GREATER
COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THE NORTHERN THIRD OF VERMONT WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT
OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 1000-500 MB
RH. A NUMBER OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW SOME RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. I`VE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY SOURCE OF LIFT COMING FROM WEAK WARM
ADVECTION AND NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS I`M NOT
CONVINCED COVERAGE WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO GO WITH HIGHER
POPS THAN THAT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO LOW
40S...GENERALLY WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLIES INCREASE TOWARD MONDAY MORNING.

THINK THERE STILL COULD BE AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS
INTO MONDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. APPROACH
OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASE IN POPS FROM
CHANCE/HIGH CHANCE SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
VERMONT TO SLIGHT CHANCE/DRY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
QPF PRETTY LOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS BEST FORCING MOVES IN ON
TUESDAY. UNTIL THAT ARRIVES THOUGH...CLOUDS MAY HOLD OFF ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR A FEW HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT...BUT HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S (COOLEST NORTH).
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES MONDAY NIGHT LOOK FOR RATHER MILD LATE APRIL
LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START AND END WITH CHANCES
OF RAIN...BUT TWO RELATIVELY NICE SPRING DAYS WILL BE FEATURED
IN BETWEEN.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS
A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL SLOWING OF THE FEATURES AS THEY
PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION. THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL LOW REMAINS
TO BE SEEN...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SHOWERS IS LIKELY FROM
LATE TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
WILL DETERMINE LENGTH AND AMOUNT OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
POST-FRONTAL-PASSAGE IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...HOWEVER CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL LIMIT HOW COOL IT GETS
TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE LOOKING AT MOSTLY 30S AND LOW 40S. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES AT THE
TAIL-END OF PRECIP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS
COMBINED WITH MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND
OROGRAPHIC RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. AS A RESULT WE`LL
ALSO BE LOOKING AT A BELOW NORMAL DAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...44-54F FOR HIGHS. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND A NICE DAY/COOL
NIGHTS. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH NIGHTS. BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST...SO WE`LL BE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE. THE LOW WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.
LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S AND 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
CEILINGS ALL 12K FEET OR ABOVE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
TURN SOUTHERLY FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FROM 5-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...NEILES/LOCONTO/SLW
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 200734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
334 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
LEADING TO A RATHER CHILLY MID TO LATE-APRIL NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
THEN REBOUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AND
MILDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THOUGH A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ISN`T UNTIL TUESDAY AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 111 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO CHANGES FOR 130 AM UPDATE...GOING
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

MOSTLY CLR SKIES ACRS FA THUS RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE
ACRS FA. HRLY TMP TRENDS AND MIN T FCST APPEAR TO BE IN-
LINE...THUS NO CHANGES WITH THIS FCST UPDATE.

323 PM DISCUSSION...LATE-AFTERNOON VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
LEFTOVER CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS. THESE WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND UNDER BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT EXPECTED AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE AND UNDER COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION (850 TEMPS FALL
TO AROUND -6C). SOME HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY TOWARD MORNING BUT THOSE WON`T STOP OVERALL IDEA OF STRONG
NOCTURNAL COOLING. 12Z MAV AND MET GUIDANCE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
PRIOR FORECAST AND THUS HAD NO COMPELLING REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH
FROM THAT...WHICH OFFERS LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS FOR THE
CUSTOMARY COLDER SPOTS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS
TO THE MID/UPPER 20S IN THE MILDER VALLEYS. THIS IS ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID/LATE APRIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT SATURDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND
500 MB RIDGE AXIS BISECTS VERMONT. MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWS 850 MB TEMPS TO WARM TO AROUND +1 TO +3C. UNDER AT LEAST
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES (SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FURTHEST
NORTH ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY)...HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT WELL
INTO THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOW 60S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
THE LOWER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE AT LEAST A GREATER
COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THE NORTHERN THIRD OF VERMONT WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT
OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 1000-500 MB
RH. A NUMBER OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW SOME RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. I`VE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY SOURCE OF LIFT COMING FROM WEAK WARM
ADVECTION AND NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS I`M NOT
CONVINCED COVERAGE WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO GO WITH HIGHER
POPS THAN THAT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO LOW
40S...GENERALLY WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLIES INCREASE TOWARD MONDAY MORNING.

THINK THERE STILL COULD BE AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS
INTO MONDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. APPROACH
OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASE IN POPS FROM
CHANCE/HIGH CHANCE SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
VERMONT TO SLIGHT CHANCE/DRY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
QPF PRETTY LOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS BEST FORCING MOVES IN ON
TUESDAY. UNTIL THAT ARRIVES THOUGH...CLOUDS MAY HOLD OFF ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR A FEW HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT...BUT HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S (COOLEST NORTH).
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES MONDAY NIGHT LOOK FOR RATHER MILD LATE APRIL
LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START AND END WITH CHANCES
OF RAIN...BUT TWO RELATIVELY NICE SPRING DAYS WILL BE FEATURED
IN BETWEEN.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS
A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL SLOWING OF THE FEATURES AS THEY
PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION. THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL LOW REMAINS
TO BE SEEN...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SHOWERS IS LIKELY FROM
LATE TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
WILL DETERMINE LENGTH AND AMOUNT OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
POST-FRONTAL-PASSAGE IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...HOWEVER CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL LIMIT HOW COOL IT GETS
TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE LOOKING AT MOSTLY 30S AND LOW 40S. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES AT THE
TAIL-END OF PRECIP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS
COMBINED WITH MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND
OROGRAPHIC RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. AS A RESULT WE`LL
ALSO BE LOOKING AT A BELOW NORMAL DAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...44-54F FOR HIGHS. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND A NICE DAY/COOL
NIGHTS. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH NIGHTS. BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST...SO WE`LL BE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE. THE LOW WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.
LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S AND 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.


.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
CEILINGS ALL 12K FEET OR ABOVE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
TURN SOUTHERLY FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FROM 5-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...NEILES/LOCONTO/SLW
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBGM 200713
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
313 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL THIN HIGH CLOUDS...THIS WILL
ALLOW SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES TODAY TO ESPECIALLY MONDAY. OUR NEXT
RAIN ARRIVES TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...
VEIL OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS EXTENDS ALL THE WAY UP OVER PA/SOUTHERN
NY...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THAT WILL BE THE ONLY IMPACT FROM THAT SYSTEM FOR OUR
REGION...WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH NOW BUILDING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES MUCH MORE DOMINANT OF OUR WEATHER. A NORTHERN
STREAM COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY WHILE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
OUT OF CANADA TO LAKE ONTARIO-NORTHEAST NY MONDAY...A NON-PLAYER
FOR OUR REGION...ALLOWING CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TO OCCUR.

WHILE STILL A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT OVERALL...THE HIGH
THIN CLOUDS ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE TEMPERATURE DROPOFF DURING
THESE PREDAWN HOURS /ESPECIALLY TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD/. EXPECTING MUCH
OF  NEPA TO END UP STAYING ABOVE FREEZING...WHILE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S WILL BE MORE COMMON IN CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING.

DESPITE THE COOL START...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY GET UNDERWAY
AS EVIDENCED BY SURGE IN 925-850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE MODELS.
SURFACE RIDGE BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG THE COAST...ENCOURAGING
ESTABLISHMENT OF RETURN FLOW AND THUS WARMING GETTING REALIZED
EVEN AT THE SURFACE LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD
MANAGE JUST A HAIR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY TODAY...AND MUCH MORE SO INTO
MONDAY AS FURTHER WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS. UPPER 50S-MID 60S
TODAY...MID 60S-LOW 70S MONDAY WITH COOLEST READINGS BOTH DAYS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS-TUG HILL PLATEAU. LOWS
TONIGHT 30S TO NEAR 40...MILDEST ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY MODERATELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MOISTURE PROFILES ON BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK AND HAVE A PRETTY
GOOD CHANCE AT ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES REGION BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WE MADE ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES TO CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THIS
PERIOD WITH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING THE UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENING WITH TIME. SHOWERS
BECOME MORE LIKELY FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
IF ALL GOES AS PLANNED...SHOULD BE PASSING INTO EASTERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AN INTERESTING SHOT OF SUB FREEZING AIR
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON A FRESH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SUGGESTS A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE APRIL. CONDITIONS MODERATE FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...AND PROBABLY MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT AND
FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE DRIFT INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT THE DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE ON
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. EACH WEATHER FEATURE APPEARS
TO BE RATHER WEAK WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...AND IT SEEMS AS THOUGH
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH A HALF INCH FOR THE WHOLE 7
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR ALL TERMINALS. SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS AROUND OR ABOVE 25 KFT
AGL...ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE IN CHARGE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SUN NGT THROUGH MON NGT...MAINLY VFR.

TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS AS SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES TUE...THEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS INTO WED MORNING ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
130 AM UPDATE...
THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH WIND TODAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY...WELL
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP EVEN LOWER...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
THAT TREND CONTINUES MONDAY...WITH FURTHER WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND FAIRLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY YET LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...A
WETTING RAIN IS ON THE WAY WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KBUF 200545
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
145 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER
TO THE REGION TODAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND EXPANDING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PLEASANT CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850
HPA WARM TO AROUND +4 TO +8C EAST TO WEST AND THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD 60S TO THE REGION. WARMEST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE FAR EASTERN EXTENT OF A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A MIDWEST STORM
SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE REGION. THICKEST CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND NORTHWARD. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. A FEW
UPPER 30S WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE STATE LINE UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM
NOVA SCOTIA WILL KEEP FAIR DRY WEATHER OVER OUR REGION MONDAY...WITH
MONDAY SLATED TO BE ONE OF THE NICER DAYS WITHIN THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND...ANY CLOUD COVER
OF NOTE WILL BE CONFINED TO SITES NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE. OUR PARTLY TO MSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL THUS COMBINE WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 8C TO
SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS THAT WILL RANGE FROM 70 TO 75 ACROSS THE
WESTERN COUNTIES TO THE MID 60S EAST OF LK ONTARIO. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...IT WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL WITHIN
A COUPLE MILES OF THE LAKE SHORES WHERE LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

OUR STRETCH OF FINE WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A PAIR
OF SHORTWAVES DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DEEPEN A
CORRESPONDING SFC LOW THAT WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH...FROM
GEORGIAN BAY TO THE OTTAWA VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES AND THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE PCPN FREE DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

AS THE FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION TUESDAY MORNING...A 100KT H25 JET
OVER QUEBEC WILL INDUCE A RELATIVELY NARROW SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL
LIFT TO ACCOMPANY THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS
BEING MAINTAINED FROM CONTINUITY. THE WRN COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE
THE BULK OF THEIR SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING WITH MOST OF SHOWERS
EAST OF LK ONTARIO BEING FOCUSED ON THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER 6 DEG/KM WILL WORK AGAINST ANY
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 10 DEG F BELOW
THOSE FROM MONDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60.

RESIDUAL TROUGHING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE FOR SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF LK ONTARIO WHERE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD WILL BE PRESENT.
WHILE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY...TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD STAY JUST
MILD ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY NUISANCE PCPN IN LIQUID FORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE INTO
CHANGEABLE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE IT WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL ON WEDNESDAY...RIDGING OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL PUSH
EAST AND BOOST OUR MERCURY BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME
DETAILS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH SUBSEQUENT MID LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND QUITE COOL THOUGH AS
H85 TEMPS OF -5C WILL HOLD OUR AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S F. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS POINT IN THE SEASON
ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

THE SFC HIGH WILL EASE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR STAR GAZING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND MODERATING H85 TEMPS
LEADING TO PLEASANT WARMING FOR THURSDAY. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...THE DOOR
WILL BE OPEN FOR A PACIFIC BASED COOL FRONT TO CROSS THE LOWER
LAKES. SOME SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT AND ITS SUPPORTING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH THE REGION.

THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY...PROLONGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT 06Z ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A GENERAL LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHRA ACTIVITY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND NEW ENGLAND TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY WILL BRING MINIMAL WAVES ON THE LAKES AND JUST A GENTLE
BREEZE ACROSS BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 200535
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
135 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE NEW WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI- STATE FROM
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BUMP UP CLOUD COVERAGE...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. AS A RESULT...WILL BUMP UP LOWS BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...MAINLY IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE. WILL
ALSO UPDATE THE HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE REGION WITH LOW
PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US OVERNIGHT. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO WILL KEEP A COOL NE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.

BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS...WHERE
SOME PATCHY FROST/FREEZE IS POSSIBLE AS TEMPS DROP INTO UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL TRACK EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW. THE COOLER EASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. CLOSER TO THE COAST...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND 30S. LOWS IN THE NYC METRO AREA WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW TO START THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MID WEEK AS
PAC AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASE. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH THIS EVOLUTION...BUT MINOR DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE STRENGTH
OF THE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT. A GOOD BIT
OF SENSITIVITY WITH THIS INTERACTION APPEARS TO LIE IN THE PAC
SHORTWAVE/RIDGE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE WEST COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BE BETTER SAMPLED STARTING BY TOMORROW
MORNING. THESE DIFFERENCES ALOFT ARE RESULTING IN SOME DIFFERENCES
IN STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE RESULTANT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH OUR REGION TUE NIGHT. OVERALL LOOKS TO BE A PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN GREATEST LIKELIHOOD TUES NIGHT. AMOUNT OF
PRECIP WILL BE PREDICATED ON THE DEPTH/STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH SHOULD CLARIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY LIKELY TAPERS OFF WED MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INSTABILITY SHOWERS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WED AFT AS
THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.

DRY CONDITIONS UNDER DEEP LAYERED RIDGING AS IT BUILDS ACROSS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN THE NEXT NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS ON THE STRENGTH AND PROGRESSIVENESS OF THIS
ENERGY...AS PATTERN BECOMES MORE BLOCKY IN NATURE.

NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE ACROSS INTERIOR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW MON AND TUE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WED WITH INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOT OF CAA...BUT
THEN A MODERATING TREND TO SEASONABLE AND THEN ABOVE SEASONABLE
TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A MODERATING AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS SLOWLY VEER FROM NE EARLY THIS MORNING...TO E BY
12-14Z...THEN SE BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. SPEEDS GENERALLY
AROUND 12 KT FOR COASTAL TERMINALS...AND 10 KT OR LESS FOR INLAND
TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING FOR ALL
BUT KJFK AND KLGA.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHRA BECOMING LIKELY...WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR. NW-N WIND
G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. NW-N WIND G20-25 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATELY TIGHT NE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
SCA GUSTS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE LIES ACROSS THE REGION.

SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH A CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA GUSTS
AND OCEAN SEAS TUES NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SCA WIND GUSTS ON ALL WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO
WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA THU INTO
THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY SUNDAY EXPECTED WITH MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT.
NE/SE WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
20 MPH.

WITH DRY FINE FUELS...THIS WILL POSE ANOTHER DAY WITH POTENTIAL
RAPID FIRE SPREAD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS LOW THROUGH THE NEW
WEEK.

WE WILL MONITOR THE STRENGTH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PROGRESSIVE
WHICH WOULD POINT AGAINST SIGNIFICANT RAIN.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/NV
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...BC/NV
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/NV







000
FXUS61 KBGM 200531
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
131 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL THIN HIGH CLOUDS...THIS WILL
ALLOW SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES TODAY TO ESPECIALLY MONDAY. OUR NEXT
RAIN ARRIVES TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...
VEIL OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS EXTENDS ALL THE WAY UP OVER PA/SOUTHERN
NY...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THAT WILL BE THE ONLY IMPACT FROM THAT SYSTEM FOR OUR
REGION...WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH NOW BUILDING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES MUCH MORE DOMINANT OF OUR WEATHER. A NORTHERN
STREAM COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY WHILE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
OUT OF CANADA TO LAKE ONTARIO-NORTHEAST NY MONDAY...A NON-PLAYER
FOR OUR REGION...ALLOWING CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TO OCCUR.

WHILE STILL A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT OVERALL...THE HIGH
THIN CLOUDS ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE TEMPERATURE DROPOFF DURING
THESE PREDAWN HOURS /ESPECIALLY TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD/. EXPECTING MUCH
OF  NEPA TO END UP STAYING ABOVE FREEZING...WHILE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S WILL BE MORE COMMON IN CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING.

DESPITE THE COOL START...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY GET UNDERWAY
AS EVIDENCED BY SURGE IN 925-850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE MODELS.
SURFACE RIDGE BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG THE COAST...ENCOURAGING
ESTABLISHMENT OF RETURN FLOW AND THUS WARMING GETTING REALIZED
EVEN AT THE SURFACE LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD
MANAGE JUST A HAIR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY TODAY...AND MUCH MORE SO INTO
MONDAY AS FURTHER WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS. UPPER 50S-MID 60S
TODAY...MID 60S-LOW 70S MONDAY WITH COOLEST READINGS BOTH DAYS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS-TUG HILL PLATEAU. LOWS
TONIGHT 30S TO NEAR 40...MILDEST ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES WL KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY UNTIL CLOSE TO TUE AFTN. WL KEEP LKLY
POPS IN FOR ENTIRE DAY ON TUESDAY AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. WITH CLD
CVR AND SHOWERS OFF AND ON THRU THE DAY EXPECT TEMPS WL ONLY BE IN
THE 60S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY TUES NIGHT THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA AND A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS/UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY STILL BE LINGERING. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE RAIN AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THEY MAY LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION ON THURS BRINGING A BEAUTIFUL AND QUIET DAY. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST
ON FRI. LARGE DIFFERENCE STILL EXIST WITHIN GUIDANCE STARTING ON
FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES CONSIST OF TIMING AND THE LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. A CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE EACH DAY ACROSS THE CWA AND RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY FRI AND SAT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
HAVE A SLIGHT RISING TREND AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
30S WED MORNING AND RISE INTO THE LOW 40S BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR ALL TERMINALS. SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS AROUND OR ABOVE 25 KFT
AGL...ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE IN CHARGE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SUN NGT THROUGH MON NGT...MAINLY VFR.

TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS AS SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES TUE...THEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS INTO WED MORNING ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
130 AM UPDATE...
THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH WIND TODAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY...WELL
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP EVEN LOWER...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
THAT TREND CONTINUES MONDAY...WITH FURTHER WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND FAIRLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY YET LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...A
WETTING RAIN IS ON THE WAY WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBTV 200515
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
LEADING TO A RATHER CHILLY MID TO LATE-APRIL NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
THEN REBOUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AND
MILDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THOUGH A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ISN`T UNTIL TUESDAY AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 111 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO CHANGES FOR 130 AM UPDATE...GOING
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

MOSTLY CLR SKIES ACRS FA THUS RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE
ACRS FA. HRLY TMP TRENDS AND MIN T FCST APPEAR TO BE IN-
LINE...THUS NO CHANGES WITH THIS FCST UPDATE.

323 PM DISCUSSION...LATE-AFTERNOON VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
LEFTOVER CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS. THESE WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND UNDER BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT EXPECTED AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE AND UNDER COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION (850 TEMPS FALL
TO AROUND -6C). SOME HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY TOWARD MORNING BUT THOSE WON`T STOP OVERALL IDEA OF STRONG
NOCTURNAL COOLING. 12Z MAV AND MET GUIDANCE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
PRIOR FORECAST AND THUS HAD NO COMPELLING REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH
FROM THAT...WHICH OFFERS LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS FOR THE
CUSTOMARY COLDER SPOTS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS
TO THE MID/UPPER 20S IN THE MILDER VALLEYS. THIS IS ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID/LATE APRIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT SATURDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND
500 MB RIDGE AXIS BISECTS VERMONT. MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWS 850 MB TEMPS TO WARM TO AROUND +1 TO +3C. UNDER AT LEAST
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES (SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FURTHEST
NORTH ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY)...HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT WELL
INTO THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOW 60S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
THE LOWER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE AT LEAST A GREATER
COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THE NORTHERN THIRD OF VERMONT WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT
OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 1000-500 MB
RH. A NUMBER OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW SOME RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. I`VE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY SOURCE OF LIFT COMING FROM WEAK WARM
ADVECTION AND NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS I`M NOT
CONVINCED COVERAGE WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO GO WITH HIGHER
POPS THAN THAT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO LOW
40S...GENERALLY WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLIES INCREASE TOWARD MONDAY MORNING.

THINK THERE STILL COULD BE AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS
INTO MONDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. APPROACH
OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASE IN POPS FROM
CHANCE/HIGH CHANCE SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
VERMONT TO SLIGHT CHANCE/DRY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
QPF PRETTY LOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS BEST FORCING MOVES IN ON
TUESDAY. UNTIL THAT ARRIVES THOUGH...CLOUDS MAY HOLD OFF ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR A FEW HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT...BUT HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S (COOLEST NORTH).
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES MONDAY NIGHT LOOK FOR RATHER MILD LATE APRIL
LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EDT SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC
EARLY TUESDAY WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
ECMWF MODEL A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS MODEL IN BRINGING THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL
HAVING SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE AN UPPER TOUGH
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE FOR A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON THURSDAY AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOWING TIMING DIFFERENCES ON BRINGING A COLD FRONT EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS MODEL
IN BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY. HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS IN EARLIER IN THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE AROUND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SOME SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...SO HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
CEILINGS ALL 12K FEET OR ABOVE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
TURN SOUTHERLY FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FROM 5-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...NEILES/LOCONTO/SLW
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI






000
FXUS61 KBTV 200501
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
101 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT LEADING TO A RATHER CHILLY MID TO LATE-APRIL NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST AND MILDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ISN`T UNTIL
TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1003 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLR SKIES ACRS FA THUS
RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE ACRS FA. HRLY TMP TRENDS AND MIN
T FCST APPEAR TO BE IN-LINE...THUS NO CHANGES WITH THIS FCST UPDATE.


323 PM DISCUSSION...LATE-AFTERNOON VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWSSOME
LEFTOVER CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS. THESE WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND UNDER BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT EXPECTED AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE AND UNDER COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION (850 TEMPS FALL TO
AROUND -6C). SOME HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TOWARD MORNING BUT THOSE WON`T STOP OVERALL IDEA OF STRONG
NOCTURNAL COOLING. 12Z MAV AND MET GUIDANCE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
PRIOR FORECAST AND THUS HAD NO COMPELLING REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH
FROM THAT...WHICH OFFERS LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS FOR THE
CUSTOMARY COLDER SPOTS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS TO
THE MID/UPPER 20S IN THE MILDER VALLEYS. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID/LATE APRIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT SATURDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND
500 MB RIDGE AXIS BISECTS VERMONT. MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWS 850 MB TEMPS TO WARM TO AROUND +1 TO +3C. UNDER AT LEAST
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES (SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FURTHEST
NORTH ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY)...HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT WELL INTO
THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOW 60S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
LOWER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE AT LEAST A GREATER COVERAGE
OF CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF VERMONT WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 1000-500 MB RH. A NUMBER
OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW SOME RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. I`VE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
ONLY SOURCE OF LIFT COMING FROM WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND NEUTRAL TO
SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS I`M NOT CONVINCED COVERAGE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO GO WITH HIGHER POPS THAN THAT. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...GENERALLY WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLIES INCREASE TOWARD MONDAY MORNING.

THINK THERE STILL COULD BE AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS
INTO MONDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. APPROACH
OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASE IN POPS FROM
CHANCE/HIGH CHANCE SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
VERMONT TO SLIGHT CHANCE/DRY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. QPF
PRETTY LOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS BEST FORCING MOVES IN ON TUESDAY.
UNTIL THAT ARRIVES THOUGH...CLOUDS MAY HOLD OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A FEW HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S (COOLEST NORTH). UNDER OVERCAST SKIES MONDAY
NIGHT LOOK FOR RATHER MILD LATE APRIL LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EDT SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC
EARLY TUESDAY WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
ECMWF MODEL A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS MODEL IN BRINGING THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL
HAVING SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE AN UPPER TOUGH
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE FOR A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON THURSDAY AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOWING TIMING DIFFERENCES ON BRINGING A COLD FRONT EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS MODEL IN
BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY. HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS IN EARLIER IN THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE AROUND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SOME SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...SO HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY
TO GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER CEILINGS ALL 12K FEET OR ABOVE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT TURN SOUTHERLY FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FROM 5-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO/SLW
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...MUCCILLI









000
FXUS61 KOKX 200435
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1235 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE NEW WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI- STATE FROM
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BUMP UP CLOUD COVERAGE...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. AS A RESULT...WILL BUMP UP LOWS BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...MAINLY IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE. WILL
ALSO UPDATE THE HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE REGION WITH LOW
PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US OVERNIGHT. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO WILL KEEP A COOL NE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.

BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS...WHERE
SOME PATCHY FROST/FREEZE IS POSSIBLE AS TEMPS DROP INTO UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL TRACK EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW. THE COOLER EASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. CLOSER TO THE COAST...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND 30S. LOWS IN THE NYC METRO AREA WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW TO START THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MID WEEK AS
PAC AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASE. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH THIS EVOLUTION...BUT MINOR DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE STRENGTH
OF THE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT. A GOOD BIT
OF SENSITIVITY WITH THIS INTERACTION APPEARS TO LIE IN THE PAC
SHORTWAVE/RIDGE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE WEST COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BE BETTER SAMPLED STARTING BY TOMORROW
MORNING. THESE DIFFERENCES ALOFT ARE RESULTING IN SOME DIFFERENCES
IN STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE RESULTANT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH OUR REGION TUE NIGHT. OVERALL LOOKS TO BE A PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN GREATEST LIKELIHOOD TUES NIGHT. AMOUNT OF
PRECIP WILL BE PREDICATED ON THE DEPTH/STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH SHOULD CLARIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY LIKELY TAPERS OFF WED MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INSTABILITY SHOWERS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WED AFT AS
THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.

DRY CONDITIONS UNDER DEEP LAYERED RIDGING AS IT BUILDS ACROSS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN THE NEXT NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS ON THE STRENGTH AND PROGRESSIVENESS OF THIS
ENERGY...AS PATTERN BECOMES MORE BLOCKY IN NATURE.

NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE ACROSS INTERIOR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW MON AND TUE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WED WITH INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOT OF CAA...BUT
THEN A MODERATING TREND TO SEASONABLE AND THEN ABOVE SEASONABLE
TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A MODERATING AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. N/NE SYNOPTIC FLOW HAS REGAINED
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVE AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SE ON SUN. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
WIND FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT-TUE MORNING...VFR.
.TUE AFTN-WED MORNING...SHRA BECOMING LIKELY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE LATE TUE AFTN/WED MORNING.
.WED AFTN...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR. NW-N WIND
G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WED NIGHT-THU...VFR. NW-N WIND G15-20 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATELY TIGHT NE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
SCA GUSTS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE LIES ACROSS THE REGION.

SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH A CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA GUSTS
AND OCEAN SEAS TUES NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SCA WIND GUSTS ON ALL WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO
WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA THU INTO
THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY SUNDAY EXPECTED WITH MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT.
NE/SE WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
20 MPH.

WITH DRY FINE FUELS...THIS WILL POSE ANOTHER DAY WITH POTENTIAL
RAPID FIRE SPREAD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS LOW THROUGH THE NEW
WEEK.

WE WILL MONITOR THE STRENGTH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PROGRESSIVE
WHICH WOULD POINT AGAINST SIGNIFICANT RAIN.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/NV
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BC/NV
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/NV










000
FXUS61 KALY 200421
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1221 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...A THIN BLANKET OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST CONTINUES TO
COVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THESE CLOUDS ARE
THIN...THEY ARE PREVENTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM
OCCURRING TONIGHT. WE HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO RANGE BETWEEN THE LOW
20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOW 30S IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND
MID HUDSON VALLEY.

OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE
DOMINATES AND FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST.

AFTER A CHILLY START...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WARM TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST. WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS
TONIGHT WILL BE...LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S...CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO
THE REGION. UNTIL THEN MORE DRY AND WARM WEATHER MONDAY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SOME LOW 70S EXPECTED IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
AND CAPITAL DISTRICT. WILL BE MILD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS BOUNDARY...MAINLY IN THE EVENING...AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY
BREEZE DEVELOPING.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT THANKS TO THE
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY.
850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE AS LOW AS -6 DEGREES OVER THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...ALONG WITH
STRONG W-NW WINDS. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THANKS TO PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER TEMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH LOW 50S
TO LOW 60S OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SEASONABLE COOL FOR WED/THURS NIGHT WITH 30S...SOME 20S OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. THIS WILL RETURN THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION
FOR SOMETIME LATE FRI INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN WHEN THE DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH...AS SOME
MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW IT MUCH SLOWER DUE TO THE SYSTEM
CUTTING OFF AT 500 HPA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHC POPS FOR FRI
NIGHT AND THE WEEKEND. TEMPS LOOK WARM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
VALLEY TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR FRIDAY...AND LOW TO MID 60S
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY LATER TODAY. WE ONLY EXPECT OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF
HIGH CLOUDS TO PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 8 KT WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL THEN TREND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BY MID TO LATE MORNING...AT 5-10 KT. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES BY SUNSET...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT KALB AT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON RANGING
FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT...

GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT
TONIGHT. MINIMUMS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 60 TO 85 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL IS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY FALL. BASED ON
THE LATEST FORECAST...IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 2 PM.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION/RAIN ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBUF 200325
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1125 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY WITH ITS
AXIS NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT FOR THE MOST PART
CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WERE SOME THIN CIRRUS FROM A STORM SYSTEM OVER FL/GA
HAS CREPT NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA.

OTHERWISE...UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT WIND REGIME EXPECT GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT. PREDAWN LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (TUG HILL)...LOOK FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S.

SUNDAY...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST. EVEN WITH THE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH
H850 TEMPS AROUND +6C WILL HELP AID IN SFC TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT MID APRIL DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM
NOVA SCOTIA WILL KEEP FAIR DRY WEATHER OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...WITH MONDAY SLATED TO BE ONE OF THE NICER DAYS WITHIN
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND...ANY
CLOUD COVER OF NOTE WILL BE CONFINED TO SITES NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE. OUR PRTLY TO
MSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL THUS COMBINE WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF
8C TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS THAT WILL RANGE FROM 70 TO 75 ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO THE MID 60S EAST OF LK ONTARIO. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...IT WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL
WITHIN A COUPLE MILES OF THE LAKE SHORES WHERE LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

OUR STRETCH OF FINE WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A PAIR
OF SHORTWAVES DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DEEPEN A
CORRESPONDING SFC LOW THAT WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH...FROM
GEORGIAN BAY TO THE OTTAWA VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES AND THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE PCPN FREE DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

AS THE FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION TUESDAY MORNING...A 100KT H25 JET
OVER QUEBEC WILL INDUCE A RELATIVELY NARROW SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL
LIFT TO ACCOMPANY THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS
BEING MAINTAINED FROM CONTINUITY. THE WRN COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE
THE BULK OF THEIR SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING WITH MOST OF SHOWERS
EAST OF LK ONTARIO BEING FOCUSED ON THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER 6 DEG/KM WILL WORK AGAINST ANY
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 10 DEG F BELOW
THOSE FROM MONDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60.

RESIDUAL TROUGHING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE FOR SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF LK ONTARIO WHERE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD WILL BE PRESENT.
WHILE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY...TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD STAY JUST
MILD ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY NUISANCE PCPN IN LIQUID FORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE INTO
CHANGEABLE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE IT WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL ON WEDNESDAY...RIDGING OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL PUSH
EAST AND BOOST OUR MERCURY BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME
DETAILS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH SUBSEQUENT MID LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND QUITE COOL THOUGH AS
H85 TEMPS OF -5C WILL HOLD OUR AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S F. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS POINT IN THE SEASON
ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

THE SFC HIGH WILL EASE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR STAR GAZING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND MODERATING H85 TEMPS
LEADING TO PLEASANT WARMING FOR THURSDAY. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...THE DOOR
WILL BE OPEN FOR A PACIFIC BASED COOL FRONT TO CROSS THE LOWER
LAKES. SOME SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT AND ITS SUPPORTING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH THE REGION.

THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY...PROLONGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MAINTAIN VFR OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT...SUNDAY EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHRA ACTIVITY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

THROUGH THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY
MORNING...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH MINIMAL WAVES...ONE FOOT OR LESS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR








000
FXUS61 KOKX 200313
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1113 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE NEW WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI- STATE FROM
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS MOSTLY ON TRACK. ADDED SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE GRIDS
WITH THIN CIRRUS REMAINING OVER THE AREA. DON`T THINK IT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE LOW TEMPS TO BE AFFECTED SO NO CHANGES THERE. ALSO
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO FIT BETTER WITH
OBS/TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE REGION WITH LOW
PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US OVERNIGHT. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO WILL KEEP A COOL NE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.

BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS...WHERE
SOME PATCHY FROST/FREEZE IS POSSIBLE AS TEMPS DROP INTO UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL TRACK EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW. THE COOLER EASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. CLOSER TO THE COAST...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND 30S. LOWS IN THE NYC METRO AREA WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW TO START THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MID WEEK AS PAC
AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASE. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THIS EVOLUTION...BUT MINOR DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT. A GOOD BIT OF
SENSITIVITY WITH THIS INTERACTION APPEARS TO LIE IN THE PAC
SHORTWAVE/RIDGE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE WEST COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BE BETTER SAMPLED STARTING BY TOMORROW
MORNING. THESE DIFFERENCES ALOFT ARE RESULTING IN SOME DIFFERENCES
IN STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE RESULTANT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
OUR REGION TUE NIGHT. OVERALL LOOKS TO BE A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD TUES NIGHT. AMOUNT OF PRECIP WILL BE PREDICATED
ON THE DEPTH/STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WHICH SHOULD CLARIFY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY TAPERS OFF WED
MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WED AFT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.

DRY CONDITIONS UNDER DEEP LAYERED RIDGING AS IT BUILDS ACROSS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON THE
STRENGTH AND PROGRESSIVENESS OF THIS ENERGY...AS PATTERN BECOMES
MORE BLOCKY IN NATURE.

NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE ACROSS INTERIOR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW MON AND TUE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WED WITH INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOT OF CAA...BUT
THEN A MODERATING TREND TO SEASONABLE AND THEN ABOVE SEASONABLE
TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A MODERATING AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. N/NE SYNOPTIC FLOW HAS REGAINED
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVE AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SE ON SUN. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
WIND FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT-TUE MORNING...VFR.
.TUE AFTN-WED MORNING...SHRA BECOMING LIKELY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE LATE TUE AFTN/WED MORNING.
.WED AFTN...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR. NW-N WIND
G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WED NIGHT-THU...VFR. NW-N WIND G15-20 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATELY TIGHT NE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
SCA GUSTS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE LIES ACROSS THE REGION.

SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH A CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA GUSTS
AND OCEAN SEAS TUES NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SCA WIND GUSTS ON ALL WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO
WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA THU INTO
THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY SUNDAY EXPECTED WITH MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT.
NE/SE WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
20 MPH.

WITH DRY FINE FUELS...THIS WILL POSE ANOTHER DAY WITH POTENTIAL
RAPID FIRE SPREAD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS LOW THROUGH THE NEW
WEEK.

WE WILL MONITOR THE STRENGTH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PROGRESSIVE
WHICH WOULD POINT AGAINST SIGNIFICANT RAIN.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KBUF 200254
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1054 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY WITH ITS
AXIS NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT FOR THE MOST PART
MOONLIT SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER WERE SOME THIN CIRRUS FROM A STORM SYSTEM OVER
FL/GA HAS CREPT NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA.

OTHERWISE...UNDER MOONLIT SKIES AND A LIGHT WIND REGIME EXPECT GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT. PREDAWN LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (TUG HILL)...LOOK FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S.

SUNDAY...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST. EVEN WITH THE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH
H850 TEMPS AROUND +6C WILL HELP AID IN SFC TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT MID APRIL DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM
NOVA SCOTIA WILL KEEP FAIR DRY WEATHER OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...WITH MONDAY SLATED TO BE ONE OF THE NICER DAYS WITHIN
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND...ANY
CLOUD COVER OF NOTE WILL BE CONFINED TO SITES NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE. OUR PRTLY TO
MSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL THUS COMBINE WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF
8C TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS THAT WILL RANGE FROM 70 TO 75 ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO THE MID 60S EAST OF LK ONTARIO. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...IT WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL
WITHIN A COUPLE MILES OF THE LAKE SHORES WHERE LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

OUR STRETCH OF FINE WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A PAIR
OF SHORTWAVES DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DEEPEN A
CORRESPONDING SFC LOW THAT WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH...FROM
GEORGIAN BAY TO THE OTTAWA VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES AND THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE PCPN FREE DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

AS THE FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION TUESDAY MORNING...A 100KT H25 JET
OVER QUEBEC WILL INDUCE A RELATIVELY NARROW SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL
LIFT TO ACCOMPANY THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS
BEING MAINTAINED FROM CONTINUITY. THE WRN COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE
THE BULK OF THEIR SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING WITH MOST OF SHOWERS
EAST OF LK ONTARIO BEING FOCUSED ON THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER 6 DEG/KM WILL WORK AGAINST ANY
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 10 DEG F BELOW
THOSE FROM MONDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60.

RESIDUAL TROUGHING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE FOR SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF LK ONTARIO WHERE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD WILL BE PRESENT.
WHILE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY...TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD STAY JUST
MILD ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY NUISANCE PCPN IN LIQUID FORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE INTO
CHANGEABLE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE IT WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL ON WEDNESDAY...RIDGING OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL PUSH
EAST AND BOOST OUR MERCURY BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME
DETAILS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH SUBSEQUENT MID LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND QUITE COOL THOUGH AS
H85 TEMPS OF -5C WILL HOLD OUR AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S F. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS POINT IN THE SEASON
ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

THE SFC HIGH WILL EASE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR STAR GAZING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND MODERATING H85 TEMPS
LEADING TO PLEASANT WARMING FOR THURSDAY. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...THE DOOR
WILL BE OPEN FOR A PACIFIC BASED COOL FRONT TO CROSS THE LOWER
LAKES. SOME SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT AND ITS SUPPORTING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH THE REGION.

THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY...PROLONGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MAINTAIN VFR OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT...SUNDAY EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHRA ACTIVITY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

THROUGH THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY
MORNING...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH MINIMAL WAVES...ONE FOOT OR LESS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR








000
FXUS61 KBGM 200226
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1026 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOMORROW INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1020 PM UPDATE...
MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS AND TEMPERATURES IN
CENTRAL TO ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN ZONES. OVERALL JUST A LITTLE MILDER
OVERNIGHT...THANKS TO BROADER-THAN-EXPECTED SHIELD OF HIGH THIN
CLOUDS...THUS PREVENTING AS PRECIPITOUS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
DROP OFF AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.

615 PM UPDATE...FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

1 PM UPDATE...
1037MB HIGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVR JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING DOWN INTO CNTRL GREAT LKS WL BUILD EAST TONIGHT INTO
QUEBEC TWD AREA OF STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES. AS IT DOES, WINDS WL
BCM LGT OUT OF THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE AFT 06Z. STRONG
INVERSION WL SET UP ARND 1KFT BY MRNG WITH A 3-8F SPREAD IN TEMPS
BTWN RIDGES AND DEEPER VLYS.

SKIES WL BE MOCLR TONIGHT WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS SNEAKING IN OVRNGT
FM SYSTEMS ACRS THE SERN U.S AND SW FLOW COMING UP THRU THE MIDWEST.
WINDS BCM SRLY AFT 12Z SUNDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND AHD OF NEXT
SYSTEM. THIS WL RESULT IN H8 TEMPS INCRSG TO BTWN +1 (IN THE EAST)
AND +5C (IN THE FINGER LKS). THUS, COOLEST MAXES TOMORROW WL BE ACRS
WRN CATS AND WARMEST ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE HIGH TEMPS WL RANGE
FM 5-8 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
SRLY SFC WINDS WL CONT SUN NGT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM. H5 LOW WL LIFT
OUT OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD CLDS ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE S/WV RIDGE AS IT FLATTENS OUT SUN NGT. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN QUITE A BIT COLDER WITH MINS FOR MON MRNG UNDER
MOCLR SKIES FM THE SRN TIER AND POINTS SOUTH. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE FINGER LKS IN SW FLOW AND ALSO INCREASING CLDS.

MON EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS APPCHG AND/OR
EXCEEDING 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS AS H8 TEMPS WARM TO +8C. HIPRES WL
KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY UNTIL CLOSE TO TUE AFTN. WL KEEP LKLY POPS IN FOR
ENTIRE DAY ON TUESDAY AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. WITH CLD CVR AND SHOWERS
OFF AND ON THRU THE DAY EXPECT TEMPS WL ONLY BE IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY TUES NIGHT THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA AND A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS/UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY STILL BE LINGERING. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE RAIN AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THEY MAY LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION ON THURS BRINGING A BEAUTIFUL AND QUIET DAY. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST
ON FRI. LARGE DIFFERENCE STILL EXIST WITHIN GUIDANCE STARTING ON
FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES CONSIST OF TIMING AND THE LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. A CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE EACH DAY ACROSS THE CWA AND RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY FRI AND SAT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
HAVE A SLIGHT RISING TREND AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
30S WED MORNING AND RISE INTO THE LOW 40S BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. UPPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AMERICAN
SOUTHEAST WILL SUPPLY A VAIL OF CIRRUS ALOFT...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED. NORTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL WEAKEN
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AFTER 15Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
240 PM UPDATE...
RH VALUES RECOVER NICELY TONIGHT AND THEN DROP TO NEAR AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW 20% DURING THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS CNY AND NEPA.
10-HOUR FUELS WILL REMAIN DRY AT LESS THAN 10%, HOWEVER WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 MPH DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...MDP/PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...CMG
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KALY 200219
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1019 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1018 PM EDT...A THIN BLANKET OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST CONTINUES TO COVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THESE CLOUDS ARE THIN...THEY
ARE PREVENTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING TONIGHT.
WE HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. MIN
TEMPS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO RANGE BETWEEN THE LOW 20S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOW 30S IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO DIMINISH THANKS
TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE
DOMINATES AND FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST.

AFTER A CHILLY START...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WARM TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST. WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS
TONIGHT WILL BE...LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S...CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO
THE REGION. UNTIL THEN MORE DRY AND WARM WEATHER MONDAY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SOME LOW 70S EXPECTED IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
AND CAPITAL DISTRICT. WILL BE MILD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS BOUNDARY...MAINLY IN THE EVENING...AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY
BREEZE DEVELOPING.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT THANKS TO THE
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY.
850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE AS LOW AS -6 DEGREES OVER THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...ALONG WITH
STRONG W-NW WINDS. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THANKS TO PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER TEMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH LOW 50S
TO LOW 60S OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SEASONABLE COOL FOR WED/THURS NIGHT WITH 30S...SOME 20S OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. THIS WILL RETURN THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION
FOR SOMETIME LATE FRI INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN WHEN THE DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH...AS SOME
MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW IT MUCH SLOWER DUE TO THE SYSTEM
CUTTING OFF AT 500 HPA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHC POPS FOR FRI
NIGHT AND THE WEEKEND. TEMPS LOOK WARM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
VALLEY TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR FRIDAY...AND LOW TO MID 60S
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING.

GUSTY N-NW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AND GENERALLY BECOME CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SKIES ARE NEARLY CLEAR AT KGFL. FURTHER SOUTH...SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS ARE AFFECTING THE TAF SITES...ESP FOR KPOU. THESE CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT NO LOWER OR
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...LIGHT S-SE WINDS OF AROUND 5-10 KTS
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME PASSING HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL...WITH CONTINUED
VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON RANGING
FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT...

GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT
TONIGHT. MINIMUMS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 60 TO 85 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL IS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY FALL. BASED ON
THE LATEST FORECAST...IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 2 PM.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION/RAIN ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 200205
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1005 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT LEADING TO A RATHER CHILLY MID TO LATE-APRIL NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST AND MILDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ISN`T UNTIL
TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1003 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLR SKIES ACRS FA THUS
RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE ACRS FA. HRLY TMP TRENDS AND MIN
T FCST APPEAR TO BE IN-LINE...THUS NO CHANGES WITH THIS FCST UPDATE.


323 PM DISCUSSION...LATE-AFTERNOON VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWSSOME
LEFTOVER CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS. THESE WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND UNDER BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT EXPECTED AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE AND UNDER COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION (850 TEMPS FALL TO
AROUND -6C). SOME HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TOWARD MORNING BUT THOSE WON`T STOP OVERALL IDEA OF STRONG
NOCTURNAL COOLING. 12Z MAV AND MET GUIDANCE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
PRIOR FORECAST AND THUS HAD NO COMPELLING REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH
FROM THAT...WHICH OFFERS LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS FOR THE
CUSTOMARY COLDER SPOTS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS TO
THE MID/UPPER 20S IN THE MILDER VALLEYS. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID/LATE APRIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT SATURDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND
500 MB RIDGE AXIS BISECTS VERMONT. MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWS 850 MB TEMPS TO WARM TO AROUND +1 TO +3C. UNDER AT LEAST
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES (SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FURTHEST
NORTH ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY)...HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT WELL INTO
THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOW 60S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
LOWER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE AT LEAST A GREATER COVERAGE
OF CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF VERMONT WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 1000-500 MB RH. A NUMBER
OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW SOME RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. I`VE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
ONLY SOURCE OF LIFT COMING FROM WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND NEUTRAL TO
SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS I`M NOT CONVINCED COVERAGE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO GO WITH HIGHER POPS THAN THAT. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...GENERALLY WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLIES INCREASE TOWARD MONDAY MORNING.

THINK THERE STILL COULD BE AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS
INTO MONDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. APPROACH
OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASE IN POPS FROM
CHANCE/HIGH CHANCE SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
VERMONT TO SLIGHT CHANCE/DRY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. QPF
PRETTY LOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS BEST FORCING MOVES IN ON TUESDAY.
UNTIL THAT ARRIVES THOUGH...CLOUDS MAY HOLD OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A FEW HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S (COOLEST NORTH). UNDER OVERCAST SKIES MONDAY
NIGHT LOOK FOR RATHER MILD LATE APRIL LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EDT SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC
EARLY TUESDAY WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
ECMWF MODEL A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS MODEL IN BRINGING THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL
HAVING SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE AN UPPER TOUGH
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE FOR A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON THURSDAY AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOWING TIMING DIFFERENCES ON BRINGING A COLD FRONT EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS MODEL IN
BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY. HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS IN EARLIER IN THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE AROUND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SOME SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...SO HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
FROM CANADA AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUDS
RAPIDLY DECREASING OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND EXPECT SKC
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNIG. NORTH WINDS TO 5 KTS THIS EVENING
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE
BUT ONLY TO 6-8 KTS. A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK OOZ MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO/SLW
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/NF







000
FXUS61 KBUF 200021
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
821 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY WITH ITS
AXIS NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT FOR THE MOST PART
MOONLIT SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER WERE SOME THIN CIRRUS FROM A STORM SYSTEM OVER
FL/GA HAS CREPT NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA.

OTHERWISE...UNDER MOONLIT SKIES AND A LIGHT WIND REGIME EXPECT GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT. PREDAWN LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (TUG HILL)...LOOK FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S.

SUNDAY...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST. EVEN WITH THE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH
H850 TEMPS AROUND +6C WILL HELP AID IN SFC TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT MID APRIL DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM
NOVA SCOTIA WILL KEEP FAIR DRY WEATHER OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...WITH MONDAY SLATED TO BE ONE OF THE NICER DAYS WITHIN
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND...ANY
CLOUD COVER OF NOTE WILL BE CONFINED TO SITES NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE. OUR PRTLY TO
MSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL THUS COMBINE WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF
8C TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS THAT WILL RANGE FROM 70 TO 75 ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO THE MID 60S EAST OF LK ONTARIO. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...IT WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL
WITHIN A COUPLE MILES OF THE LAKE SHORES WHERE LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

OUR STRETCH OF FINE WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A PAIR
OF SHORTWAVES DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DEEPEN A
CORRESPONDING SFC LOW THAT WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH...FROM
GEORGIAN BAY TO THE OTTAWA VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES AND THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE PCPN FREE DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

AS THE FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION TUESDAY MORNING...A 100KT H25 JET
OVER QUEBEC WILL INDUCE A RELATIVELY NARROW SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL
LIFT TO ACCOMPANY THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS
BEING MAINTAINED FROM CONTINUITY. THE WRN COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE
THE BULK OF THEIR SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING WITH MOST OF SHOWERS
EAST OF LK ONTARIO BEING FOCUSED ON THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER 6 DEG/KM WILL WORK AGAINST ANY
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 10 DEG F BELOW
THOSE FROM MONDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60.

RESIDUAL TROUGHING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE FOR SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF LK ONTARIO WHERE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD WILL BE PRESENT.
WHILE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY...TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD STAY JUST
MILD ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY NUISANCE PCPN IN LIQUID FORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE INTO
CHANGEABLE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE IT WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL ON WEDNESDAY...RIDGING OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL PUSH
EAST AND BOOST OUR MERCURY BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME
DETAILS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH SUBSEQUENT MID LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND QUITE COOL THOUGH AS
H85 TEMPS OF -5C WILL HOLD OUR AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S F. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS POINT IN THE SEASON
ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

THE SFC HIGH WILL EASE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR STAR GAZING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND MODERATING H85 TEMPS
LEADING TO PLEASANT WARMING FOR THURSDAY. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...THE DOOR
WILL BE OPEN FOR A PACIFIC BASED COOL FRONT TO CROSS THE LOWER
LAKES. SOME SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT AND ITS SUPPORTING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH THE REGION.

THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY...PROLONGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH MONDAY.  SURFACE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT..THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHRA ACTIVITY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

THROUGH THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY
MORNING...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR








000
FXUS61 KOKX 200011
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
811 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE NEW WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI- STATE FROM
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US OVERNIGHT. THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE TWO WILL KEEP A COOL NE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS CLEAR AND DRY.

BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS...WHERE
SOME PATCHY FROST/FREEZE IS POSSIBLE AS TEMPS DROP INTO UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL TRACK EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW. THE COOLER EASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. CLOSER TO THE COAST...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND 30S. LOWS IN THE NYC METRO AREA WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW TO START THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MID WEEK AS PAC
AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASE. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THIS EVOLUTION...BUT MINOR DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT. A GOOD BIT OF
SENSITIVITY WITH THIS INTERACTION APPEARS TO LIE IN THE PAC
SHORTWAVE/RIDGE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE WEST COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BE BETTER SAMPLED STARTING BY TOMORROW
MORNING. THESE DIFFERENCES ALOFT ARE RESULTING IN SOME DIFFERENCES
IN STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE RESULTANT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
OUR REGION TUE NIGHT. OVERALL LOOKS TO BE A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD TUES NIGHT. AMOUNT OF PRECIP WILL BE PREDICATED
ON THE DEPTH/STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WHICH SHOULD CLARIFY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY TAPERS OFF WED
MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WED AFT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.

DRY CONDITIONS UNDER DEEP LAYERED RIDGING AS IT BUILDS ACROSS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON THE
STRENGTH AND PROGRESSIVENESS OF THIS ENERGY...AS PATTERN BECOMES
MORE BLOCKY IN NATURE.

NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE ACROSS INTERIOR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW MON AND TUE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WED WITH INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOT OF CAA...BUT
THEN A MODERATING TREND TO SEASONABLE AND THEN ABOVE SEASONABLE
TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A MODERATING AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LATE AFTN SEABREEZE DEVELOPED AT KJFK
AND WAS HEADING TOWARDS KEWR...BUT MAY NOT MAKE IT TO THE
AIRFIELD. SPEEDS ARE LESS THAN 10 KT. N/NE SYNOPTIC FLOW EXPECTED
TO REGAIN CONTROL BY 01Z AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOMES SE ON SUN. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND
FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT-TUE MORNING...VFR.
.TUE AFTN-WED MORNING...SHRA BECOMING LIKELY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE LATE TUE AFTN/WED MORNING.
.WED AFTN...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR. NW-N WIND
G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WED NIGHT-THU...VFR. NW-N WIND G15-20 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATELY TIGHT NE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
SCA GUSTS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE LIES ACROSS THE REGION.

SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH A CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA GUSTS
AND OCEAN SEAS TUES NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SCA WIND GUSTS ON ALL WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO
WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA THU INTO
THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY SUNDAY EXPECTED WITH MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT.
NE/SE WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
20 MPH.

WITH DRY FINE FUELS...THIS WILL POSE ANOTHER DAY WITH POTENTIAL
RAPID FIRE SPREAD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS LOW THROUGH THE NEW
WEEK.

WE WILL MONITOR THE STRENGTH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PROGRESSIVE
WHICH WOULD POINT AGAINST SIGNIFICANT RAIN.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/NV
NEAR TERM...BC/NV
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...
MARINE...BC/NV
FIRE WEATHER...NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/NV









000
FXUS61 KBGM 192344
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
744 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOMORROW INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE...FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

1 PM UPDATE...
1037MB HIGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVR JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING DOWN INTO CNTRL GREAT LKS WL BUILD EAST TONIGHT INTO
QUEBEC TWD AREA OF STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES. AS IT DOES, WINDS WL
BCM LGT OUT OF THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE AFT 06Z. STRONG
INVERSION WL SET UP ARND 1KFT BY MRNG WITH A 3-8F SPREAD IN TEMPS
BTWN RIDGES AND DEEPER VLYS.

SKIES WL BE MOCLR TONIGHT WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS SNEAKING IN OVRNGT
FM SYSTEMS ACRS THE SERN U.S AND SW FLOW COMING UP THRU THE MIDWEST.
WINDS BCM SRLY AFT 12Z SUNDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND AHD OF NEXT
SYSTEM. THIS WL RESULT IN H8 TEMPS INCRSG TO BTWN +1 (IN THE EAST)
AND +5C (IN THE FINGER LKS). THUS, COOLEST MAXES TOMORROW WL BE ACRS
WRN CATS AND WARMEST ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE HIGH TEMPS WL RANGE
FM 5-8 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
SRLY SFC WINDS WL CONT SUN NGT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM. H5 LOW WL LIFT
OUT OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD CLDS ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE S/WV RIDGE AS IT FLATTENS OUT SUN NGT. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN QUITE A BIT COLDER WITH MINS FOR MON MRNG UNDER
MOCLR SKIES FM THE SRN TIER AND POINTS SOUTH. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE FINGER LKS IN SW FLOW AND ALSO INCREASING CLDS.

MON EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS APPCHG AND/OR
EXCEEDING 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS AS H8 TEMPS WARM TO +8C. HIPRES WL
KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY UNTIL CLOSE TO TUE AFTN. WL KEEP LKLY POPS IN FOR
ENTIRE DAY ON TUESDAY AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. WITH CLD CVR AND SHOWERS
OFF AND ON THRU THE DAY EXPECT TEMPS WL ONLY BE IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY TUES NIGHT THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA AND A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS/UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY STILL BE LINGERING. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE RAIN AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THEY MAY LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION ON THURS BRINGING A BEAUTIFUL AND QUIET DAY. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST
ON FRI. LARGE DIFFERENCE STILL EXIST WITHIN GUIDANCE STARTING ON
FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES CONSIST OF TIMING AND THE LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. A CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE EACH DAY ACROSS THE CWA AND RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY FRI AND SAT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
HAVE A SLIGHT RISING TREND AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
30S WED MORNING AND RISE INTO THE LOW 40S BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. UPPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AMERICAN
SOUTHEAST WILL SUPPLY A VAIL OF CIRRUS ALOFT...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED. NORTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL WEAKEN
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AFTER 15Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
240 PM UPDATE...
RH VALUES RECOVER NICELY TONIGHT AND THEN DROP TO NEAR AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW 20% DURING THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS CNY AND NEPA.
10-HOUR FUELS WILL REMAIN DRY AT LESS THAN 10%, HOWEVER WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 MPH DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...CMG
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KBTV 192336
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT LEADING TO A RATHER CHILLY MID TO LATE-APRIL NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST AND MILDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ISN`T UNTIL
TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT SATURDAY...LEFTOVER CLDS HAVE MELTED DURING THE
LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLR SKIES ACRS FA. UPDATED
TEMP TRENDS AS TMPS IN SOME LOCALES ROSE ABOVE TREND LINES DUE TO
APRIL SS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO ONGOING FCST.


323 PM DISCUSSION...LATE-AFTERNOON VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWSSOME
LEFTOVER CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS. THESE WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND UNDER BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT EXPECTED AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE AND UNDER COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION (850 TEMPS FALL TO
AROUND -6C). SOME HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TOWARD MORNING BUT THOSE WON`T STOP OVERALL IDEA OF STRONG
NOCTURNAL COOLING. 12Z MAV AND MET GUIDANCE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
PRIOR FORECAST AND THUS HAD NO COMPELLING REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH
FROM THAT...WHICH OFFERS LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS FOR THE
CUSTOMARY COLDER SPOTS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS TO
THE MID/UPPER 20S IN THE MILDER VALLEYS. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID/LATE APRIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT SATURDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND
500 MB RIDGE AXIS BISECTS VERMONT. MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWS 850 MB TEMPS TO WARM TO AROUND +1 TO +3C. UNDER AT LEAST
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES (SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FURTHEST
NORTH ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY)...HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT WELL INTO
THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOW 60S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
LOWER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE AT LEAST A GREATER COVERAGE
OF CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF VERMONT WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 1000-500 MB RH. A NUMBER
OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW SOME RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. I`VE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
ONLY SOURCE OF LIFT COMING FROM WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND NEUTRAL TO
SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS I`M NOT CONVINCED COVERAGE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO GO WITH HIGHER POPS THAN THAT. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...GENERALLY WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLIES INCREASE TOWARD MONDAY MORNING.

THINK THERE STILL COULD BE AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS
INTO MONDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. APPROACH
OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASE IN POPS FROM
CHANCE/HIGH CHANCE SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
VERMONT TO SLIGHT CHANCE/DRY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. QPF
PRETTY LOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS BEST FORCING MOVES IN ON TUESDAY.
UNTIL THAT ARRIVES THOUGH...CLOUDS MAY HOLD OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A FEW HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S (COOLEST NORTH). UNDER OVERCAST SKIES MONDAY
NIGHT LOOK FOR RATHER MILD LATE APRIL LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EDT SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC
EARLY TUESDAY WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
ECMWF MODEL A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS MODEL IN BRINGING THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL
HAVING SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE AN UPPER TOUGH
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE FOR A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON THURSDAY AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOWING TIMING DIFFERENCES ON BRINGING A COLD FRONT EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS MODEL IN
BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY. HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS IN EARLIER IN THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE AROUND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SOME SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...SO HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
FROM CANADA AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUDS
RAPIDLY DECREASING OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND EXPECT SKC
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNIG. NORTH WINDS TO 5 KTS THIS EVENING
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE
BUT ONLY TO 6-8 KTS. A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK OOZ MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO/SLW
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/NF







000
FXUS61 KALY 192331
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
731 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 731 PM EDT...ALL DIURNAL CU HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
HAVE SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA TO AS
FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL REGION. ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF CIRRUS CLOUDS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....SKY COVER IS STILL EXPECTED
TO GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MAINLY THE 20S
(10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE
DOMINATES AND FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST.

AFTER A CHILLY START...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WARM TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST. WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS
TONIGHT WILL BE...LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S...CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO
THE REGION. UNTIL THEN MORE DRY AND WARM WEATHER MONDAY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SOME LOW 70S EXPECTED IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
AND CAPITAL DISTRICT. WILL BE MILD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS BOUNDARY...MAINLY IN THE EVENING...AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY
BREEZE DEVELOPING.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT THANKS TO THE
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY.
850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE AS LOW AS -6 DEGREES OVER THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...ALONG WITH
STRONG W-NW WINDS. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THANKS TO PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER TEMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH LOW 50S
TO LOW 60S OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SEASONABLE COOL FOR WED/THURS NIGHT WITH 30S...SOME 20S OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. THIS WILL RETURN THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION
FOR SOMETIME LATE FRI INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN WHEN THE DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH...AS SOME
MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW IT MUCH SLOWER DUE TO THE SYSTEM
CUTTING OFF AT 500 HPA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHC POPS FOR FRI
NIGHT AND THE WEEKEND. TEMPS LOOK WARM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
VALLEY TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR FRIDAY...AND LOW TO MID 60S
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING.

GUSTY N-NW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AND GENERALLY BECOME CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SKIES ARE NEARLY CLEAR AT KGFL. FURTHER SOUTH...SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS ARE AFFECTING THE TAF SITES...ESP FOR KPOU. THESE CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT NO LOWER OR
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...LIGHT S-SE WINDS OF AROUND 5-10 KTS
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME PASSING HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL...WITH CONTINUED
VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON RANGING
FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT...

GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT
TONIGHT. MINIMUMS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 60 TO 85 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL IS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY FALL. BASED ON
THE LATEST FORECAST...IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 2 PM.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION/RAIN ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 192307
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
707 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT LEADING TO A RATHER CHILLY MID TO LATE-APRIL NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST AND MILDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ISN`T UNTIL
TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 705 PM EDT SATURDAY...LEFTOVER CLDS HAVE MELTED DURING THE
LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLR SKIES ACRS FA. UPDATED
TEMP TRENDS AS TMPS IN SOME LOCALES ROSE ABOVE TREND LINES DUE TO
APRIL SS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO ONGOING FCST.


323 PM DISCUSSION...LATE-AFTERNOON VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWSSOME
LEFTOVER CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS. THESE WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND UNDER BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT EXPECTED AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE AND UNDER COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION (850 TEMPS FALL TO
AROUND -6C). SOME HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TOWARD MORNING BUT THOSE WON`T STOP OVERALL IDEA OF STRONG
NOCTURNAL COOLING. 12Z MAV AND MET GUIDANCE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
PRIOR FORECAST AND THUS HAD NO COMPELLING REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH
FROM THAT...WHICH OFFERS LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS FOR THE
CUSTOMARY COLDER SPOTS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS TO
THE MID/UPPER 20S IN THE MILDER VALLEYS. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID/LATE APRIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT SATURDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND
500 MB RIDGE AXIS BISECTS VERMONT. MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWS 850 MB TEMPS TO WARM TO AROUND +1 TO +3C. UNDER AT LEAST
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES (SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FURTHEST
NORTH ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY)...HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT WELL INTO
THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOW 60S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
LOWER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE AT LEAST A GREATER COVERAGE
OF CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF VERMONT WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 1000-500 MB RH. A NUMBER
OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW SOME RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. I`VE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
ONLY SOURCE OF LIFT COMING FROM WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND NEUTRAL TO
SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS I`M NOT CONVINCED COVERAGE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO GO WITH HIGHER POPS THAN THAT. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...GENERALLY WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLIES INCREASE TOWARD MONDAY MORNING.

THINK THERE STILL COULD BE AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS
INTO MONDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. APPROACH
OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASE IN POPS FROM
CHANCE/HIGH CHANCE SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
VERMONT TO SLIGHT CHANCE/DRY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. QPF
PRETTY LOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS BEST FORCING MOVES IN ON TUESDAY.
UNTIL THAT ARRIVES THOUGH...CLOUDS MAY HOLD OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A FEW HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S (COOLEST NORTH). UNDER OVERCAST SKIES MONDAY
NIGHT LOOK FOR RATHER MILD LATE APRIL LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EDT SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC
EARLY TUESDAY WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
ECMWF MODEL A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS MODEL IN BRINGING THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL
HAVING SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE AN UPPER TOUGH
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE FOR A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON THURSDAY AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOWING TIMING DIFFERENCES ON BRINGING A COLD FRONT EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS MODEL IN
BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY. HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS IN EARLIER IN THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE AROUND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SOME SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...SO HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
THROUGH 1730Z SATURDAY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME. EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR
THROUGHOUT THE REGION AFTER 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUNDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO/SLW
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH







000
FXUS61 KBGM 192218
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
618 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOMORROW INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE...FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

1 PM UPDATE...
1037MB HIGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVR JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING DOWN INTO CNTRL GREAT LKS WL BUILD EAST TONIGHT INTO
QUEBEC TWD AREA OF STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES. AS IT DOES, WINDS WL
BCM LGT OUT OF THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE AFT 06Z. STRONG
INVERSION WL SET UP ARND 1KFT BY MRNG WITH A 3-8F SPREAD IN TEMPS
BTWN RIDGES AND DEEPER VLYS.

SKIES WL BE MOCLR TONIGHT WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS SNEAKING IN OVRNGT
FM SYSTEMS ACRS THE SERN U.S AND SW FLOW COMING UP THRU THE MIDWEST.
WINDS BCM SRLY AFT 12Z SUNDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND AHD OF NEXT
SYSTEM. THIS WL RESULT IN H8 TEMPS INCRSG TO BTWN +1 (IN THE EAST)
AND +5C (IN THE FINGER LKS). THUS, COOLEST MAXES TOMORROW WL BE ACRS
WRN CATS AND WARMEST ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE HIGH TEMPS WL RANGE
FM 5-8 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
SRLY SFC WINDS WL CONT SUN NGT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM. H5 LOW WL LIFT
OUT OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD CLDS ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE S/WV RIDGE AS IT FLATTENS OUT SUN NGT. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN QUITE A BIT COLDER WITH MINS FOR MON MRNG UNDER
MOCLR SKIES FM THE SRN TIER AND POINTS SOUTH. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE FINGER LKS IN SW FLOW AND ALSO INCREASING CLDS.

MON EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS APPCHG AND/OR
EXCEEDING 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS AS H8 TEMPS WARM TO +8C. HIPRES WL
KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY UNTIL CLOSE TO TUE AFTN. WL KEEP LKLY POPS IN FOR
ENTIRE DAY ON TUESDAY AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. WITH CLD CVR AND SHOWERS
OFF AND ON THRU THE DAY EXPECT TEMPS WL ONLY BE IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY TUES NIGHT THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA AND A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS/UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY STILL BE LINGERING. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE RAIN AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THEY MAY LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION ON THURS BRINGING A BEAUTIFUL AND QUIET DAY. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST
ON FRI. LARGE DIFFERENCE STILL EXIST WITHIN GUIDANCE STARTING ON
FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES CONSIST OF TIMING AND THE LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. A CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE EACH DAY ACROSS THE CWA AND RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY FRI AND SAT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
HAVE A SLIGHT RISING TREND AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
30S WED MORNING AND RISE INTO THE LOW 40S BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
THE MVFR DECK OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK HAS BEEN SLOW TO LIFT THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON AND EXPECT ALL CIGS TO BECOME VFR WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR. AFTER THE DECK LIFTS LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD MIXING TO OCCUR THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THESE WINDS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
240 PM UPDATE...
RH VALUES RECOVER NICELY TONIGHT AND THEN DROP TO NEAR AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW 20% DURING THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS CNY AND NEPA.
10-HOUR FUELS WILL REMAIN DRY AT LESS THAN 10%, HOWEVER WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 MPH DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KALY 192112
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
512 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LINGERING CLOUDS HAVE BASICALLY DISSIPATED. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MAINLY THE 20S
(10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE
DOMINATES AND FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST.

AFTER A CHILLY START...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WARM TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST. WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS
TONIGHT WILL BE...LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S...CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO
THE REGION. UNTIL THEN MORE DRY AND WARM WEATHER MONDAY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SOME LOW 70S EXPECTED IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
AND CAPITAL DISTRICT. WILL BE MILD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS BOUNDARY...MAINLY IN THE EVENING...AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY
BREEZE DEVELOPING.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT THANKS TO THE
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY.
850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE AS LOW AS -6 DEGREES OVER THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...ALONG WITH
STRONG W-NW WINDS. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THANKS TO PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER TEMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH LOW 50S
TO LOW 60S OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SEASONABLE COOL FOR WED/THURS NIGHT WITH 30S...SOME 20S OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. THIS WILL RETURN THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION
FOR SOMETIME LATE FRI INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN WHEN THE DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH...AS SOME
MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW IT MUCH SLOWER DUE TO THE SYSTEM
CUTTING OFF AT 500 HPA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHC POPS FOR FRI
NIGHT AND THE WEEKEND. TEMPS LOOK WARM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
VALLEY TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR FRIDAY...AND LOW TO MID 60S
ON SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 5 KFT WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AT KALB...KGFL AND KPSF. SKIES WILL
BECOME SKC BY 21Z AT ALL TAF SITES. NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
BE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SKC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS
TREND TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE
REGION. MAINLY SKC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS SPILLING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON RANGING
FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT...

GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT
TONIGHT. MINIMUMS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 60 TO 85 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL IS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY FALL. BASED ON
THE LATEST FORECAST...IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 2 PM.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION/RAIN ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 191947
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT LEADING TO A RATHER CHILLY MID TO LATE-APRIL NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST AND MILDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ISN`T UNTIL
TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT SATURDAY...LATE-AFTERNOON VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME LEFTOVER CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS. THESE WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND UNDER BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT EXPECTED AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE AND UNDER COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION (850 TEMPS FALL TO
AROUND -6C). SOME HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TOWARD MORNING BUT THOSE WON`T STOP OVERALL IDEA OF STRONG
NOCTURNAL COOLING. 12Z MAV AND MET GUIDANCE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
PRIOR FORECAST AND THUS HAD NO COMPELLING REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH
FROM THAT...WHICH OFFERS LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS FOR THE
CUSTOMARY COLDER SPOTS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS TO
THE MID/UPPER 20S IN THE MILDER VALLEYS. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID/LATE APRIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT SATURDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND
500 MB RIDGE AXIS BISECTS VERMONT. MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWS 850 MB TEMPS TO WARM TO AROUND +1 TO +3C. UNDER AT LEAST
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES (SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FURTHEST
NORTH ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY)...HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT WELL INTO
THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOW 60S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
LOWER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE AT LEAST A GREATER COVERAGE
OF CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF VERMONT WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 1000-500 MB RH. A NUMBER
OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW SOME RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. I`VE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
ONLY SOURCE OF LIFT COMING FROM WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND NEUTRAL TO
SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS I`M NOT CONVINCED COVERAGE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO GO WITH HIGHER POPS THAN THAT. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...GENERALLY WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLIES INCREASE TOWARD MONDAY MORNING.

THINK THERE STILL COULD BE AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS
INTO MONDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. APPROACH
OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASE IN POPS FROM
CHANCE/HIGH CHANCE SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
VERMONT TO SLIGHT CHANCE/DRY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. QPF
PRETTY LOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS BEST FORCING MOVES IN ON TUESDAY.
UNTIL THAT ARRIVES THOUGH...CLOUDS MAY HOLD OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A FEW HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S (COOLEST NORTH). UNDER OVERCAST SKIES MONDAY
NIGHT LOOK FOR RATHER MILD LATE APRIL LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EDT SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC
EARLY TUESDAY WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
ECMWF MODEL A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS MODEL IN BRINGING THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL
HAVING SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE AN UPPER TOUGH
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE FOR A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON THURSDAY AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOWING TIMING DIFFERENCES ON BRINGING A COLD FRONT EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS MODEL IN
BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY. HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS IN EARLIER IN THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE AROUND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SOME SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...SO HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
THROUGH 1730Z SATURDAY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME. EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR
THROUGHOUT THE REGION AFTER 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUNDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH








000
FXUS61 KOKX 191925
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
325 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE NEW WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI- STATE FROM
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NORTH AND WEST OF NYC...WHERE SOME SPOTS
COULD SEE LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL TRACK EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW. THE COOLER EASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. CLOSER TO THE COAST...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND 30S. LOWS IN THE NYC METRO AREA WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW TO START THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MID WEEK AS PAC
AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASE. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THIS EVOLUTION...BUT MINOR DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT. A GOOD BIT OF
SENSITIVITY WITH THIS INTERACTION APPEARS TO LIE IN THE PAC
SHORTWAVE/RIDGE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE WEST COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BE BETTER SAMPLED STARTING BY TOMORROW
MORNING. THESE DIFFERENCES ALOFT ARE RESULTING IN SOME DIFFERENCES
IN STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE RESULTANT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
OUR REGION TUE NIGHT. OVERALL LOOKS TO BE A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD TUES NIGHT. AMOUNT OF PRECIP WILL BE PREDICATED
ON THE DEPTH/STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WHICH SHOULD CLARIFY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY TAPERS OFF WED
MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WED AFT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.

DRY CONDITIONS UNDER DEEP LAYERED RIDGING AS IT BUILDS ACROSS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON THE
STRENGTH AND PROGRESSIVENESS OF THIS ENERGY...AS PATTERN BECOMES
MORE BLOCKY IN NATURE.

NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE ACROSS INTERIOR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW MON AND TUE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WED WITH INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOT OF CAA...BUT
THEN A MODERATING TREND TO SEASONABLE AND THEN ABOVE SEASONABLE
TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A MODERATING AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A GUSTY NNW-N FLOW...SUSTAINED AROUND
10KT GUSTS 15-20KT CONTINUES UNTIL EARLY EVENING. THEN WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER TO NNE-NE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING SE
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHRA BECOMING LIKELY...WITH
MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR. NW-N
WIND G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. NW-N WIND G15-20 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NEAR THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS
REMAINING BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH A CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA GUSTS
AND OCEAN SEAS TUES NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SCA WIND GUSTS ON ALL WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO
WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA THU INTO
THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY DAY TODAY WITH GUSTY N-NW FLOW WILL RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES
BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH AT TIMES.
THIS WILL ENHANCE FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
WILL REMAIN UP TO HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS LOW THROUGH THE NEW
WEEK.

WE WILL MONITOR THE STRENGTH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PROGRESSIVE
WHICH WOULD POINT AGAINST SIGNIFICANT RAIN.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/NV
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BC/NV
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/NV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 191923
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
323 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT LEADING TO A RATHER CHILLY MID TO LATE-APRIL NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST AND MILDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ISN`T UNTIL
TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT SATURDAY...LATE-AFTERNOON VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME LEFTOVER CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS. THESE WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND UNDER BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT EXPECTED AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE AND UNDER COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION (850 TEMPS FALL TO
AROUND -6C). SOME HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TOWARD MORNING BUT THOSE WON`T STOP OVERALL IDEA OF STRONG
NOCTURNAL COOLING. 12Z MAV AND MET GUIDANCE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
PRIOR FORECAST AND THUS HAD NO COMPELLING REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH
FROM THAT...WHICH OFFERS LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS FOR THE
CUSTOMARY COLDER SPOTS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS TO
THE MID/UPPER 20S IN THE MILDER VALLEYS. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID/LATE APRIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT SATURDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND
500 MB RIDGE AXIS BISECTS VERMONT. MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWS 850 MB TEMPS TO WARM TO AROUND +1 TO +3C. UNDER AT LEAST
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES (SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FURTHEST
NORTH ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY)...HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT WELL INTO
THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOW 60S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
LOWER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE AT LEAST A GREATER COVERAGE
OF CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF VERMONT WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 1000-500 MB RH. A NUMBER
OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW SOME RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. I`VE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
ONLY SOURCE OF LIFT COMING FROM WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND NEUTRAL TO
SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS I`M NOT CONVINCED COVERAGE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO GO WITH HIGHER POPS THAN THAT. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...GENERALLY WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLIES INCREASE TOWARD MONDAY MORNING.

THINK THERE STILL COULD BE AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS
INTO MONDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. APPROACH
OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASE IN POPS FROM
CHANCE/HIGH CHANCE SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
VERMONT TO SLIGHT CHANCE/DRY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. QPF
PRETTY LOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS BEST FORCING MOVES IN ON TUESDAY.
UNTIL THAT ARRIVES THOUGH...CLOUDS MAY HOLD OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A FEW HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S (COOLEST NORTH). UNDER OVERCAST SKIES MONDAY
NIGHT LOOK FOR RATHER MILD LATE APRIL LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE TUESDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS TO START ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TO START THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALLOWING
FOR A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
SHOULDN`T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BUT CAN`T RULE OUT
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW
REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SHOWERS IS LIKELY
FROM TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
SECONDARY LOW WILL DETERMINE LENGTH AND AMOUNT OF RAIN. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO
THE 60S ON TUESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT POST-FRONT FALLING
BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S. SOME SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE ON
THE TAIL-END OF PRECIP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS
COMBINED WITH MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND
OROGRAPHIC RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. AS A RESULT
WE`LL ALSO BE LOOKING AT A BELOW NORMAL DAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...45-55F FOR HIGHS. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND A NICE DAY/COOL
NIGHTS. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY FROM 50-60F WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH NIGHTS. BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SO WE`LL BE TRENDING ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
THROUGH 1730Z SATURDAY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME. EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR
THROUGHOUT THE REGION AFTER 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUNDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...WGH














000
FXUS61 KBUF 191916
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
316 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT
WIND REGIME. MOST OVERNIGHT LOWS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON SUNDAY FROM
A SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST.  SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON COUPLED
WITH H8.5 TEMPS AROUND 5C WILL MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT MID APRIL
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM
NOVA SCOTIA WILL KEEP FAIR DRY WEATHER OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...WITH MONDAY SLATED TO BE ONE OF THE NICER DAYS WITHIN
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND...ANY
CLOUD COVER OF NOTE WILL BE CONFINED TO SITES NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE. OUR PRTLY TO
MSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL THUS COMBINE WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF
8C TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS THAT WILL RANGE FROM 70 TO 75 ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO THE MID 60S EAST OF LK ONTARIO. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...IT WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL
WITHIN A COUPLE MILES OF THE LAKE SHORES WHERE LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

OUR STRETCH OF FINE WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A PAIR
OF SHORTWAVES DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DEEPEN A
CORRESPONDING SFC LOW THAT WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH...FROM
GEORGIAN BAY TO THE OTTAWA VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES AND THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE PCPN FREE DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

AS THE FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION TUESDAY MORNING...A 100KT H25 JET
OVER QUEBEC WILL INDUCE A RELATIVELY NARROW SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL
LIFT TO ACCOMPANY THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS
BEING MAINTAINED FROM CONTINUITY. THE WRN COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE
THE BULK OF THEIR SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING WITH MOST OF SHOWERS
EAST OF LK ONTARIO BEING FOCUSED ON THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER 6 DEG/KM WILL WORK AGAINST ANY
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 10 DEG F BELOW
THOSE FROM MONDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60.

RESIDUAL TROUGHING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE FOR SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF LK ONTARIO WHERE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD WILL BE PRESENT.
WHILE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY...TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD STAY JUST
MILD ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY NUISANCE PCPN IN LIQUID FORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE INTO
CHANGEABLE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE IT WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL ON WEDNESDAY...RIDGING OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL PUSH
EAST AND BOOST OUR MERCURY BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME
DETAILS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH SUBSEQUENT MID LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND QUITE COOL THOUGH AS
H85 TEMPS OF -5C WILL HOLD OUR AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S F. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS POINT IN THE SEASON
ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

THE SFC HIGH WILL EASE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR STAR GAZING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND MODERATING H85 TEMPS
LEADING TO PLEASANT WARMING FOR THURSDAY. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...THE DOOR
WILL BE OPEN FOR A PACIFIC BASED COOL FRONT TO CROSS THE LOWER
LAKES. SOME SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT AND ITS SUPPORTING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH THE REGION.

THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY...PROLONGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH MONDAY.  SURFACE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT..THEN
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY
MORNING...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 191915
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
315 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOMORROW INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
1037MB HIGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVR JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING DOWN INTO CNTRL GREAT LKS WL BUILD EAST TONIGHT INTO
QUEBEC TWD AREA OF STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES. AS IT DOES, WINDS WL
BCM LGT OUT OF THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE AFT 06Z. STRONG
INVERSION WL SET UP ARND 1KFT BY MRNG WITH A 3-8F SPREAD IN TEMPS
BTWN RIDGES AND DEEPER VLYS.

SKIES WL BE MOCLR TONIGHT WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS SNEAKING IN OVRNGT
FM SYSTEMS ACRS THE SERN U.S AND SW FLOW COMING UP THRU THE MIDWEST.
WINDS BCM SRLY AFT 12Z SUNDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND AHD OF NEXT
SYSTEM. THIS WL RESULT IN H8 TEMPS INCRSG TO BTWN +1 (IN THE EAST)
AND +5C (IN THE FINGER LKS). THUS, COOLEST MAXES TOMORROW WL BE ACRS
WRN CATS AND WARMEST ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE HIGH TEMPS WL RANGE
FM 5-8 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
SRLY SFC WINDS WL CONT SUN NGT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM. H5 LOW WL LIFT
OUT OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD CLDS ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE S/WV RIDGE AS IT FLATTENS OUT SUN NGT. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN QUITE A BIT COLDER WITH MINS FOR MON MRNG UNDER
MOCLR SKIES FM THE SRN TIER AND POINTS SOUTH. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE FINGER LKS IN SW FLOW AND ALSO INCREASING CLDS.

MON EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS APPCHG AND/OR
EXCEEDING 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS AS H8 TEMPS WARM TO +8C. HIPRES WL
KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY UNTIL CLOSE TO TUE AFTN. WL KEEP LKLY POPS IN FOR
ENTIRE DAY ON TUESDAY AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. WITH CLD CVR AND SHOWERS
OFF AND ON THRU THE DAY EXPECT TEMPS WL ONLY BE IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY TUES NIGHT THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA AND A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS/UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY STILL BE LINGERING. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE RAIN AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THEY MAY LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION ON THURS BRINGING A BEAUTIFUL AND QUIET DAY. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST
ON FRI. LARGE DIFFERENCE STILL EXIST WITHIN GUIDANCE STARTING ON
FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES CONSIST OF TIMING AND THE LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. A CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE EACH DAY ACROSS THE CWA AND RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY FRI AND SAT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
HAVE A SLIGHT RISING TREND AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
30S WED MORNING AND RISE INTO THE LOW 40S BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
THE MVFR DECK OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK HAS BEEN SLOW TO LIFT THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON AND EXPECT ALL CIGS TO BECOME VFR WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR. AFTER THE DECK LIFTS LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD MIXING TO OCCUR THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THESE WINDS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
240 PM UPDATE...
RH VALUES RECOVER NICELY TONIGHT AND THEN DROP TO NEAR AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW 20% DURING THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS CNY AND NEPA.
10-HOUR FUELS WILL REMAIN DRY AT LESS THAN 10%, HOWEVER WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 10MPH DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH
FIRE WEATHER...PVN








000
FXUS61 KBUF 191902
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
302 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS ERODING AS PREDICTED BUT STILL LINGER ACROSS FINGER LAKES
AND TUG HILL AREAS.  CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE ESPECIALLY AS SUNSET
NEARS.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT
WIND REGIME. MOST OVERNIGHT LOWS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON SUNDAY FROM
A SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST.  SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON COUPLED
WITH H8.5 TEMPS AROUND 5C WILL MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT MID APRIL
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM
NOVA SCOTIA WILL KEEP FAIR DRY WEATHER OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...WITH MONDAY SLATED TO BE ONE OF THE NICER DAYS WITHIN
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND...ANY
CLOUD COVER OF NOTE WILL BE CONFINED TO SITES NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE. OUR PRTLY TO
MSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL THUS COMBINE WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF
8C TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS THAT WILL RANGE FROM 70 TO 75 ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO THE MID 60S EAST OF LK ONTARIO. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...IT WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL
WITHIN A COUPLE MILES OF THE LAKE SHORES WHERE LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

OUR STRETCH OF FINE WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A PAIR
OF SHORTWAVES DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DEEPEN A
CORRESPONDING SFC LOW THAT WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH...FROM
GEORGIAN BAY TO THE OTTAWA VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES AND THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE PCPN FREE DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

AS THE FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION TUESDAY MORNING...A 100KT H25 JET
OVER QUEBEC WILL INDUCE A RELATIVELY NARROW SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL
LIFT TO ACCOMPANY THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS
BEING MAINTAINED FROM CONTINUITY. THE WRN COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE
THE BULK OF THEIR SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING WITH MOST OF SHOWERS
EAST OF LK ONTARIO BEING FOCUSED ON THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER 6 DEG/KM WILL WORK AGAINST ANY
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 10 DEG F BELOW
THOSE FROM MONDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60.

RESIDUAL TROUGHING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE FOR SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF LK ONTARIO WHERE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD WILL BE PRESENT.
WHILE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY...TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD STAY JUST
MILD ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY NUISANCE PCPN IN LIQUID FORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE INTO
CHANGEABLE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE IT WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL ON WEDNESDAY...RIDGING OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL PUSH
EAST AND BOOST OUR MERCURY BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME
DETAILS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH SUBSEQUENT MID LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND QUITE COOL THOUGH AS
H85 TEMPS OF -5C WILL HOLD OUR AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S F. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS POINT IN THE SEASON
ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

THE SFC HIGH WILL EASE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR STAR GAZING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND MODERATING H85 TEMPS
LEADING TO PLEASANT WARMING FOR THURSDAY. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...THE DOOR
WILL BE OPEN FOR A PACIFIC BASED COOL FRONT TO CROSS THE LOWER
LAKES. SOME SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT AND ITS SUPPORTING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH THE REGION.

THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY...PROLONGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 3K FEET MAINLY OVER FINGER LAKES AND
TUG HILL WILL DIMINISH BY 20Z. OTHERWISE VFR AREAWIDE THROUGH
MONDAY.  NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT..THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY
MORNING...NO SIGNIFIANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 191848
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
248 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOMORROW INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
1037MB HIGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVR JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING DOWN INTO CNTRL GREAT LKS WL BUILD EAST TONIGHT INTO
QUEBEC TWD AREA OF STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES. AS IT DOES, WINDS WL
BCM LGT OUT OF THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE AFT 06Z. STRONG
INVERSION WL SET UP ARND 1KFT BY MRNG WITH A 3-8F SPREAD IN TEMPS
BTWN RIDGES AND DEEPER VLYS.

SKIES WL BE MOCLR TONIGHT WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS SNEAKING IN OVRNGT
FM SYSTEMS ACRS THE SERN U.S AND SW FLOW COMING UP THRU THE MIDWEST.
WINDS BCM SRLY AFT 12Z SUNDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND AHD OF NEXT
SYSTEM. THIS WL RESULT IN H8 TEMPS INCRSG TO BTWN +1 (IN THE EAST)
AND +5C (IN THE FINGER LKS). THUS, COOLEST MAXES TOMORROW WL BE ACRS
WRN CATS AND WARMEST ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE HIGH TEMPS WL RANGE
FM 5-8 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
SRLY SFC WINDS WL CONT SUN NGT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM. H5 LOW WL LIFT
OUT OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD CLDS ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE S/WV RIDGE AS IT FLATTENS OUT SUN NGT. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN QUITE A BIT COLDER WITH MINS FOR MON MRNG UNDER
MOCLR SKIES FM THE SRN TIER AND POINTS SOUTH. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE FINGER LKS IN SW FLOW AND ALSO INCREASING CLDS.

MON EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS APPCHG AND/OR
EXCEEDING 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS AS H8 TEMPS WARM TO +8C. HIPRES WL
KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY UNTIL CLOSE TO TUE AFTN. WL KEEP LKLY POPS IN FOR
ENTIRE DAY ON TUESDAY AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. WITH CLD CVR AND SHOWERS
OFF AND ON THRU THE DAY EXPECT TEMPS WL ONLY BE IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...
BEHIND SURFACE FRONT FROM TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DROPS ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. GFS-ECMWF RUNS BOTH KEEP
IT AS AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SWINGS THROUGH...BEFORE DIFFERING ON ITS
EVOLUTION WELL OFFSHORE. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES GET SUB-540
DECAMETERS FOR A TIME...CONTRIBUTING TO THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. STILL A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL WITH THAT UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH.

DRY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CHARGE AT SURFACE...AND RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ALSO
MODERATING...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY...BUT NEXT WAVE MAY ALSO BE
APPROACHING BY THEN WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF COURSE WILL BE SORTED OUT BETTER IN COMING
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
THE MVFR DECK OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK HAS BEEN SLOW TO LIFT THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON AND EXPECT ALL CIGS TO BECOME VFR WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR. AFTER THE DECK LIFTS LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD MIXING TO OCCUR THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THESE WINDS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
240 PM UPDATE...
RH VALUES RECOVER NICELY TONIGHT AND THEN DROP TO NEAR AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW 20% DURING THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS CNY AND NEPA.
10-HOUR FUELS WILL REMAIN DRY AT LESS THAN 10%, HOWEVER WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 10MPH DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...KAH
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 191846
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
246 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TODAY...INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...WILL
MODERATE SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
1037MB HIGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVR JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING DOWN INTO CNTRL GREAT LKS WL BUILD EAST TONIGHT INTO
QUEBEC TWD AREA OF STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES. AS IT DOES, WINDS WL
BCM LGT OUT OF THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE AFT 06Z. STRONG
INVERSION WL SET UP ARND 1KFT BY MRNG WITH A 3-8F SPREAD IN TEMPS
BTWN RIDGES AND DEEPER VLYS.

SKIES WL BE MOCLR TONIGHT WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS SNEAKING IN OVRNGT
FM SYSTEMS ACRS THE SERN U.S AND SW FLOW COMING UP THRU THE MIDWEST.
WINDS BCM SRLY AFT 12Z SUNDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND AHD OF NEXT
SYSTEM. THIS WL RESULT IN H8 TEMPS INCRSG TO BTWN +1 (IN THE EAST)
AND +5C (IN THE FINGER LKS). THUS, COOLEST MAXES TOMORROW WL BE ACRS
WRN CATS AND WARMEST ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE HIGH TEMPS WL RANGE
FM 5-8 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
SRLY SFC WINDS WL CONT SUN NGT AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM. H5 LOW WL LIFT
OUT OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD CLDS ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE S/WV RIDGE AS IT FLATTENS OUT SUN NGT. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN QUITE A BIT COLDER WITH MINS FOR MON MRNG UNDER
MOCLR SKIES FM THE SRN TIER AND POINTS SOUTH. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE FINGER LKS IN SW FLOW AND ALSO INCREASING CLDS.

MON EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS APPCHG AND/OR
EXCEEDING 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS AS H8 TEMPS WARM TO +8C. HIPRES WL
KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY UNTIL CLOSE TO TUE AFTN. WL KEEP LKLY POPS IN FOR
ENTIRE DAY ON TUESDAY AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. WITH CLD CVR AND SHOWERS
OFF AND ON THRU THE DAY EXPECT TEMPS WL ONLY BE IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...
BEHIND SURFACE FRONT FROM TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DROPS ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. GFS-ECMWF RUNS BOTH KEEP
IT AS AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SWINGS THROUGH...BEFORE DIFFERING ON ITS
EVOLUTION WELL OFFSHORE. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES GET SUB-540
DECAMETERS FOR A TIME...CONTRIBUTING TO THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. STILL A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL WITH THAT UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH.

DRY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CHARGE AT SURFACE...AND RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ALSO
MODERATING...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY...BUT NEXT WAVE MAY ALSO BE
APPROACHING BY THEN WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF COURSE WILL BE SORTED OUT BETTER IN COMING
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
THE MVFR DECK OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK HAS BEEN SLOW TO LIFT THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON AND EXPECT ALL CIGS TO BECOME VFR WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR. AFTER THE DECK LIFTS LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD MIXING TO OCCUR THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THESE WINDS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
240 PM UPDATE...
RH VALUES RECOVER NICELY TONIGHT AND THEN DROP TO NEAR AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW 20% DURING THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS CNY AND NEPA.
10-HOUR FUELS WILL REMAIN DRY AT LESS THAN 10%, HOWEVER WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 10MPH DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...KAH
FIRE WEATHER...PVN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 191754
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
154 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TODAY...INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...WILL
MODERATE SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
1037MB HIGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVR JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING DOWN INTO CNTRL GREAT LKS WL BUILD EAST TONIGHT INTO
QUEBEC TWD AREA OF STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES. AS IT DOES, WINDS WL
BCM LGT OUT OF THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE AFT 06Z. STRONG
INVERSION WL SET UP ARND 1KFT BY MRNG WITH A 3-8F SPREAD IN TEMPS
BTWN RIDGES AND DEEPER VLYS.

SKIES WL BE MOCLR TONIGHT WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS SNEAKING IN OVRNGT
FM SYSTEMS ACRS THE SERN U.S AND SW FLOW COMING UP THRU THE MIDWEST.
WINDS BCM SRLY AFT 12Z SUNDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND AHD OF NEXT
SYSTEM. THIS WL RESULT IN H8 TEMPS INCRSG TO BTWN +1 (IN THE EAST)
AND +5C (IN THE FINGER LKS). THUS, COOLEST MAXES TOMORROW WL BE ACRS
WRN CATS AND WARMEST ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE HIGH TEMPS WL RANGE
FM 5-8 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LARGER SEPARATION BETWEEN
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT
/ESPECIALLY FIRST HALF BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE
IN/...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED WARMER TREND OF GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY...AFTER 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM AGREE NOW ON WAITING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TO SWEEP COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION.
THE RAIN ITSELF IS A SOLID BET...IT IS JUST A MATTER OF WHICH TIME
OF DAY WILL BE THE MAIN RAINFALL. WENT AHEAD WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD
OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...AND AS THE TIME NEARS WE WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER HEM IN WHICH SPECIFIC HOURS WILL BE INVOLVED. FRONT WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH...TO WHICH
WE ANTICIPATE LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT OTHER THAN DAMPENING PLANS
FOR GENERAL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THERMAL PROFILES ALSO TOO STABLE
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...SO NO LIGHTNING EXPECTED.

RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT AND THEN EVENTUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK TO UPPER 50S-MID 60S FOR HIGHS...FOLLOWED
BY UPPER 30S-LOW 40S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...
BEHIND SURFACE FRONT FROM TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DROPS ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. GFS-ECMWF RUNS BOTH KEEP
IT AS AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SWINGS THROUGH...BEFORE DIFFERING ON ITS
EVOLUTION WELL OFFSHORE. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES GET SUB-540
DECAMETERS FOR A TIME...CONTRIBUTING TO THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. STILL A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL WITH THAT UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH.

DRY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CHARGE AT SURFACE...AND RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ALSO
MODERATING...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY...BUT NEXT WAVE MAY ALSO BE
APPROACHING BY THEN WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF COURSE WILL BE SORTED OUT BETTER IN COMING
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
THE MVFR DECK OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK HAS BEEN SLOW TO LIFT THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON AND EXPECT ALL CIGS TO BECOME VFR WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR. AFTER THE DECK LIFTS LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD MIXING TO OCCUR THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THESE WINDS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
5 AM SAT UPDATE...

FOR TODAY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE
30S PERCENT IN FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S PERCENT
IN THE REST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES. FINE FUELS WERE RUNNING BELOW 10
PERCENT. THIS COMES CLOSE TO OUR RED FLAG CRITERIA IN PA. IN NY
THE CRITERIA IS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH OR MORE. BIGGEST QUESTION
WILL BE THE WIND GUSTS IN NE PA AND THAT IS WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY LIES
AT THIS TIME. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH CTP AND PHI WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO COVER AND DAY SHIFT CAN COORDINATE WITH PA STATE PARTNERS
TO SEE IF RED FLAG IS WARRANTED LATER THIS MORNING.

FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...KAH
FIRE WEATHER...DJN








000
FXUS61 KBTV 191750
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
150 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH
SUNDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1250 PM EDT SATURDAY...AFTER A RATHER RAW AND OVERCAST START
TO SATURDAY...STARTING TO FINALLY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
AS INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
STILL EXPECT THE COOLEST TEMPS FOR THE REST OF TODAY TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH CLOUDS BEING SLOWER TO LIFT THERE. ANY
LOWER ELEVATION RAIN/HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL VERMONT/NORTHERN GREENS AREA AND
LIKELY NOT LAST MUCH LONGER THAN INTO THE MID- AFTERNOON. AS
CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT...LOOK FOR WINDS AND GUSTS TO INCREASE A
BIT UNDER BETTER MIXING. THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY ON
TRACK...GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE TOO QUICK WITH DRYING THE LOW-LEVELS
OUT AND AS SUCH I`VE OPTED TO SLOW TIMING OF SHARPER FALLS IN SFC
DEWPOINTS WITH THIS UPDATE. HIGHS IN THE 40S/SPOT LOW 50S
(PRIMARILY SOUTHERN VERMONT) STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF AS SURFACE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES...AN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ON SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAINLY UPPER 50S.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED...A NICE DAY ON TAP. QUIET
WEATHER CONTINUES OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BE WARMER THAN TONIGHT. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
NICE DAY...WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUING AND MAX TEMPS IN THE
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE TUESDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS TO START ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TO START THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALLOWING
FOR A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
SHOULDN`T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BUT CAN`T RULE OUT
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW
REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SHOWERS IS LIKELY
FROM TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
SECONDARY LOW WILL DETERMINE LENGTH AND AMOUNT OF RAIN. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO
THE 60S ON TUESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT POST-FRONT FALLING
BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S. SOME SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE ON
THE TAIL-END OF PRECIP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS
COMBINED WITH MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND
OROGRAPHIC RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. AS A RESULT
WE`LL ALSO BE LOOKING AT A BELOW NORMAL DAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...45-55F FOR HIGHS. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND A NICE DAY/COOL
NIGHTS. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY FROM 50-60F WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH NIGHTS. BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SO WE`LL BE TRENDING ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
THROUGH 1730Z SATURDAY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME. EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR
THROUGHOUT THE REGION AFTER 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUNDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...WGH









000
FXUS61 KALY 191747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MILD AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST ALSO. RIDGING IS BUILDING
IN AT THE SURFACE WITH HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO RISE ALOFT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD COVER DECREASING. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
OT MIX OUT AND DISSIPATE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE RATHER TIGHT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALREADY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH DEEP MIXING TO
BETWEEN 825-850 MB. LOOKING AT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION.
INITIALLY...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS MAY PERSIST AS THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT TIGHT. HOWEVER...AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT TO CALM WIND...COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND A DRY...CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
RATHER COLD LEVELS FOR MID APRIL BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK...WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...WITH EVEN SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME LOWER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. SHOULD WINDS
PERSIST LONGER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WARMER MIN TEMPS WOULD
OCCUR.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION TO OCCUR. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...EXPECT SUN AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REACH 60-65 IN VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER THAN TODAY...BUT WILL INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST...ESP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...PERHAPS REACHING 10-20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...TRICKY CALL ON MIN TEMPS...AS A SOUTH WIND...SOME
PASSING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...AND OVERALL LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MAY KEEP TEMPS MUCH HIGHER THAN SAT NT/SUN AM. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH
GENERALLY LOWER/MID 30S EXPECTED IN VALLEYS...WITH SOME 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...BUT MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT AS A
WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION TOWARD
THE REGION WILL SLOW CONSIDERABLY. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...MOST OF
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
REMAIN N AND W OF THE REGION FOR MOST OF MONDAY...AND ONLY REACHING
N/W AREAS MON NT...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. SO...KEEPING MOST AREAS OUTSIDE
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS DRY FOR MONDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS
INDICATED FOR MON NT FOR FAR N/W AREAS LATE. FURTHER LOW LEVEL
WARMING SHOULD ALLOW MON MAX TEMPS TO REACH 65-70 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
A RATHER MILD MON NT IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH MOST MINS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WET IN MOST AREAS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED TO OUR NORTH
AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR CAPE COD AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THUS MOST OF TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK WET WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AS MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX CROSS THE REGION SO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.
ON FRIDAY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY. SO AFTER A DRY
DAY ON THURSDAY EXPECT MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO END THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL AVERAGE OUT TO BE
SEASONABLE FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGHS
ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70
SOUTHEAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH READINGS FROM
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...ALTHOUGH SOME
UPPER 40S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH SOME
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 5 KFT WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AT KALB...KGFL AND KPSF. SKIES WILL
BECOME SKC BY 21Z AT ALL TAF SITES. NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
BE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SKC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS
TREND TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE
REGION. MAINLY SKC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS SPILLING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 25 MPH LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...
     LOW RH VALUES OF 25-35 PERCENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP...WITH
SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
TO 5-15 MPH...AND SHOULD DECREASE TO 5 MPH OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL THEN TREND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AND INCREASE TO 5-15 MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
WILL THEN DROP INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER HAS DROPPED TO MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE...AND IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT FALLS COMPLETELY
BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 191730
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
130 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TODAY...AND THEN SETTLES OVER THE GULF
OF MAINE FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TOWARDS...THEN OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
WILL BUILD EAST. WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RIDGING AT THE
SFC...WILL EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH 20-25 MPH
GUSTS. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A BLEND OF MET/MAV
MOS GUIDANCE WAS USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK AS HIGH PRES
MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY...AND THEN SETTLES OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT
IN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AS WELL AS
THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND. ELSEWHERE...LOWS DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE.

AS THE HIGH TRACKS EAST...WINDS SHIFT TO A COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY IN MOST
SPOTS. HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST...AND
IN THE LOW 60S INLAND. SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR
COASTAL AREAS ON MONDAY...BUT THE INTERIOR WILL BE ABLE TO WARM
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOWS DROP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO PHASING BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY...TO THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY...AS IT BEGINS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOLID CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS THAT
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY...THEN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN
FROM NW TO SE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS THEN WILL
TAPER OF FROM NW TO SE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN CONSENSUS...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT TUESDAY NIGHT. DO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE (CHANCE FAR NE ZONES) OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN RESPONSE TO CORE OF THE MID-UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF THE RIDGE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SPED UP A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF AND REMAINDER OF
THE 00Z GUIDANCE...AND WOULD NO BRING SOME RAIN IN ON
FRIDAY...WHILE ALL THE LATTER GUIDANCE HAS FRIDAY DRY. IF THE
TRENDS IN THE ECMWF CONTINUE...THEN POPS WOULD HAVE TO BE ADDED TO
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD BE
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT AREAS FROM NYC ON W COULD REACH OR JUST GO PAST
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY...RAISE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY...THEN SHOULD
BE ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. NOTE...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT IT COULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST. FOR
FRIDAY...IF THE 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THEN HIGHS COULD BE AT
LEAST 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A GUSTY NNW FLOW...SUSTAINED AROUND 10KT
GUSTS 15-20KT CONTINUES UNTIL EARLY EVENING. THEN WINDS GRADUALLY
VEER TO NNE-NE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING SE WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY 5-10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHRA BECOMING LIKELY...WITH
MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR. NW-N
WIND G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. NW-N WIND G15-20 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS WEEKEND.
OCNL WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ON THE SOUND AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY WITH A RELATIVELY
RELAXED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO
SCA LEVELS ON ALL WATERS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY DAY TODAY WITH GUSTY N-NW FLOW WILL RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES
BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH AT TIMES.
THIS WILL ENHANCE FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE
NEW WEEK.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF THIS APPEARS LOWER
THAN IT DID YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS - IF
ANY.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MPS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 191712
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
112 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS ERODING AS PREDICTED BUT STILL LINGER ACROSS FINGER LAKES
AND TUG HILL AREAS.  CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE ESPECIALLY AS SUNSET
NEARS.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT
WIND REGIME. MOST OVERNIGHT LOWS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON SUNDAY FROM
A SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST.  SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON COUPLED
WITH H8.5 TEMPS AROUND 5C WILL MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT MID APRIL
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A BEAUTIFUL EASTER SUNDAY...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY
DRIFTS EASTWARD AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. PLENTY OF DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER...WITH JUST A MODEST INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL HELP PUMP 850 MB TEMPS UP TO BETWEEN +3C AND
+7C...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
BULK OF THE AREA SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO ALL
THIS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES...WHERE DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER...AND
POTENTIALLY CONFINED TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE IT WILL THEN
STALL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE LIFTING A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CENTRAL US-CANADA BORDER...AND THE
CONSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD SURFACE WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWER CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER AND POINTS NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY...WITH OUR AREA OTHERWISE
REMAINING DRY ALONG WITH JUST A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RENDER SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR AT LEAST A PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE
AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY
SUNNY. WITH A MILDER OVERALL AIRMASS IN PLACE...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD AVERAGE SOME 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO SATURDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOST AREAS SEEING READINGS BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN WARMER DAY ON MONDAY COMPARED TO
SUNDAY...WHEN 850 MB TEMPS OF +6C TO +9C SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS THOSE LAKESHORE AREAS IMMEDIATELY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...
WHERE A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS
NOTICEABLY COOLER.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE EAST
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE HEADING OFF TO
EASTERN NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE
PROCESS...IT WILL PUSH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE THUS CONTINUED
WITH A SWATH OF HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WHICH PEAK
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT MILD LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OF MILD AIR THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE ENCROACHING
COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THEN FOLLOWING
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW BODILY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER...ENOUGH SO TO SEND HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER
THAN NORMAL READINGS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THAT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL CREST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...BEFORE SLIDING EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY GIVING
WAY TO THE NEXT SURFACE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
SHOWER CHANCES RETURN ON FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...A GENERAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RECOVER BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S AGAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 3K FEET MAINLY OVER FINGER LAKES AND
TUG HILL WILL DIMINISH BY 20Z. OTHERWISE VFR AREAWIDE THROUGH
MONDAY.  NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT..THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY
MORNING...NO SIGNIFIANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN








000
FXUS61 KBUF 191708
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1007 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS ERODING AS PREDICTED BUT STILL LINGER ACROSS FINGER LAKES
AND TUG HILL AREAS.  CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE ESPECIALLY AS SUNSET
NEARS.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT
WIND REGIME. MOST OVERNIGHT LOWS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON SUNDAY FROM
A SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST.  SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON COUPLED
WITH H8.5 TEMPS AROUND 5C WILL MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT MID APRIL
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A BEAUTIFUL EASTER SUNDAY...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY
DRIFTS EASTWARD AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. PLENTY OF DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER...WITH JUST A MODEST INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL HELP PUMP 850 MB TEMPS UP TO BETWEEN +3C AND
+7C...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
BULK OF THE AREA SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO ALL
THIS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES...WHERE DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER...AND
POTENTIALLY CONFINED TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE IT WILL THEN
STALL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE LIFTING A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CENTRAL US-CANADA BORDER...AND THE
CONSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD SURFACE WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWER CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER AND POINTS NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY...WITH OUR AREA OTHERWISE
REMAINING DRY ALONG WITH JUST A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RENDER SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR AT LEAST A PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE
AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY
SUNNY. WITH A MILDER OVERALL AIRMASS IN PLACE...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD AVERAGE SOME 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO SATURDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOST AREAS SEEING READINGS BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN WARMER DAY ON MONDAY COMPARED TO
SUNDAY...WHEN 850 MB TEMPS OF +6C TO +9C SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS THOSE LAKESHORE AREAS IMMEDIATELY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...
WHERE A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS
NOTICEABLY COOLER.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE EAST
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE HEADING OFF TO
EASTERN NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE
PROCESS...IT WILL PUSH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE THUS CONTINUED
WITH A SWATH OF HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WHICH PEAK
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT MILD LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OF MILD AIR THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE ENCROACHING
COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THEN FOLLOWING
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW BODILY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER...ENOUGH SO TO SEND HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER
THAN NORMAL READINGS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THAT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL CREST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...BEFORE SLIDING EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY GIVING
WAY TO THE NEXT SURFACE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
SHOWER CHANCES RETURN ON FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...A GENERAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RECOVER BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S AGAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 3K FEET MAINLY OVER FINGER LAKES AND
TUG HILL WILL DIMINISH BY 20Z. OTHERWISE VFR AREAWIDE THROUGH
MONDAY.  NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT..THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY
MORNING...NO SIGNIFIANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...TMA










000
FXUS61 KBTV 191650
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1250 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH
SUNDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1250 PM EDT SATURDAY...AFTER A RATHER RAW AND OVERCAST START
TO SATURDAY...STARTING TO FINALLY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
AS INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
STILL EXPECT THE COOLEST TEMPS FOR THE REST OF TODAY TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH CLOUDS BEING SLOWER TO LIFT THERE. ANY
LOWER ELEVATION RAIN/HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL VERMONT/NORTHERN GREENS AREA AND
LIKELY NOT LAST MUCH LONGER THAN INTO THE MID- AFTERNOON. AS
CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT...LOOK FOR WINDS AND GUSTS TO INCREASE A
BIT UNDER BETTER MIXING. THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY ON
TRACK...GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE TOO QUICK WITH DRYING THE LOW-LEVELS
OUT AND AS SUCH I`VE OPTED TO SLOW TIMING OF SHARPER FALLS IN SFC
DEWPOINTS WITH THIS UPDATE. HIGHS IN THE 40S/SPOT LOW 50S
(PRIMARILY SOUTHERN VERMONT) STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF AS SURFACE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES...AN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ON SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAINLY UPPER 50S.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED...A NICE DAY ON TAP. QUIET
WEATHER CONTINUES OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BE WARMER THAN TONIGHT. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
NICE DAY...WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUING AND MAX TEMPS IN THE
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE TUESDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS TO START ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TO START THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALLOWING
FOR A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
SHOULDN`T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BUT CAN`T RULE OUT
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW
REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SHOWERS IS LIKELY
FROM TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
SECONDARY LOW WILL DETERMINE LENGTH AND AMOUNT OF RAIN. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO
THE 60S ON TUESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT POST-FRONT FALLING
BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S. SOME SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE ON
THE TAIL-END OF PRECIP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS
COMBINED WITH MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND
OROGRAPHIC RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. AS A RESULT
WE`LL ALSO BE LOOKING AT A BELOW NORMAL DAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...45-55F FOR HIGHS. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND A NICE DAY/COOL
NIGHTS. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY FROM 50-60F WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH NIGHTS. BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SO WE`LL BE TRENDING ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
MORNING IS DELIVERING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THESE WILL GRADUALLY WANE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE MORNING...HANGING ON IN EASTERN AND HIGHER ELEVATION
TAF SITES THE LONGEST. ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RUT ARE
ALREADY EXPERIENCING OR ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
REDUCTION TO MVFR...MAINLY DUE TO SOME LOWER CEILINGS POST-FRONT
IN UPSLOPE FLOW. SLK IS SEEING SOME IFR. IMPROVEMENT AFTER 14Z IS
FORECAST WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DEVELOP WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS LIKELY.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ABATE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI
















000
FXUS61 KBGM 191647
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1247 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TODAY...INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...WILL
MODERATE SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
1037MB HIGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVR JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING DOWN INTO CNTRL GREAT LKS WL BUILD EAST TONIGHT INTO
QUEBEC TWD AREA OF STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES. AS IT DOES, WINDS WL
BCM LGT OUT OF THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE AFT 06Z. STRONG
INVERSION WL SET UP ARND 1KFT BY MRNG WITH A 3-8F SPREAD IN TEMPS
BTWN RIDGES AND DEEPER VLYS.

SKIES WL BE MOCLR TONIGHT WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS SNEAKING IN OVRNGT
FM SYSTEMS ACRS THE SERN U.S AND SW FLOW COMING UP THRU THE MIDWEST.
WINDS BCM SRLY AFT 12Z SUNDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND AHD OF NEXT
SYSTEM. THIS WL RESULT IN H8 TEMPS INCRSG TO BTWN +1 (IN THE EAST)
AND +5C (IN THE FINGER LKS). THUS, COOLEST MAXES TOMORROW WL BE ACRS
WRN CATS AND WARMEST ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE HIGH TEMPS WL RANGE
FM 5-8 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LARGER SEPARATION BETWEEN
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT
/ESPECIALLY FIRST HALF BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE
IN/...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED WARMER TREND OF GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY...AFTER 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM AGREE NOW ON WAITING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TO SWEEP COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION.
THE RAIN ITSELF IS A SOLID BET...IT IS JUST A MATTER OF WHICH TIME
OF DAY WILL BE THE MAIN RAINFALL. WENT AHEAD WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD
OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...AND AS THE TIME NEARS WE WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER HEM IN WHICH SPECIFIC HOURS WILL BE INVOLVED. FRONT WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH...TO WHICH
WE ANTICIPATE LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT OTHER THAN DAMPENING PLANS
FOR GENERAL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THERMAL PROFILES ALSO TOO STABLE
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...SO NO LIGHTNING EXPECTED.

RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT AND THEN EVENTUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK TO UPPER 50S-MID 60S FOR HIGHS...FOLLOWED
BY UPPER 30S-LOW 40S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...
BEHIND SURFACE FRONT FROM TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DROPS ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. GFS-ECMWF RUNS BOTH KEEP
IT AS AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SWINGS THROUGH...BEFORE DIFFERING ON ITS
EVOLUTION WELL OFFSHORE. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES GET SUB-540
DECAMETERS FOR A TIME...CONTRIBUTING TO THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. STILL A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL WITH THAT UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH.

DRY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CHARGE AT SURFACE...AND RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ALSO
MODERATING...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY...BUT NEXT WAVE MAY ALSO BE
APPROACHING BY THEN WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF COURSE WILL BE SORTED OUT BETTER IN COMING
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS REACHED INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND WILL SOON BE
THRU KAVP. POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS HAS SCATTERED OUT. A FEW PATCHY
MVFR CIGS WERE STILL PRESENT IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF C NY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SCT-BKN VFR
CUMULUS/SC TO FORM LATE MORNING WITH INSOLATION. HOWEVER...WITH
SUCH DRY AIR ABOVE THE PROJECTED MIXED LAYER...THESE CLDS SHUD
CLEAR OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MOST TAFS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
AT KRME WHERE THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COOLER WHICH WILL LEAD TO
THE CLDS HANGING ON LONGER.

AFTER CLDS CLEAR OUT LATER TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST THRU
12Z SUN.

EXPECT NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
5 AM SAT UPDATE...

FOR TODAY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE
30S PERCENT IN FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S PERCENT
IN THE REST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES. FINE FUELS WERE RUNNING BELOW 10
PERCENT. THIS COMES CLOSE TO OUR RED FLAG CRITERIA IN PA. IN NY
THE CRITERIA IS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH OR MORE. BIGGEST QUESTION
WILL BE THE WIND GUSTS IN NE PA AND THAT IS WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY LIES
AT THIS TIME. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH CTP AND PHI WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO COVER AND DAY SHIFT CAN COORDINATE WITH PA STATE PARTNERS
TO SEE IF RED FLAG IS WARRANTED LATER THIS MORNING.

FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DJN
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KOKX 191435
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1035 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TODAY...AND THEN SETTLES OVER THE GULF
OF MAINE FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TOWARDS...THEN OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK. MADE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...AND BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRES CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST. WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AND RIDGING AT THE SFC...WILL EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH 20-25 MPH GUSTS. SKIES CLEAR OUT LATER THIS
MORNING...GIVING TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A BLEND OF MET/MAV
MOS GUIDANCE WAS USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK AS HIGH PRES
MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY...AND THEN SETTLES OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT
IN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AS WELL AS
THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND. ELSEWHERE...LOWS DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE.

AS THE HIGH TRACKS EAST...WINDS SHIFT TO A COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY IN MOST
SPOTS. HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST...AND
IN THE LOW 60S INLAND. SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR
COASTAL AREAS ON MONDAY...BUT THE INTERIOR WILL BE ABLE TO WARM
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOWS DROP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO PHASING BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY...TO THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY...AS IT BEGINS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOLID CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS THAT
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY...THEN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN
FROM NW TO SE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS THEN WILL
TAPER OF FROM NW TO SE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN CONSENSUS...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT TUESDAY NIGHT. DO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE (CHANCE FAR NE ZONES) OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN RESPONSE TO CORE OF THE MID-UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF THE RIDGE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SPED UP A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF AND REMAINDER OF
THE 00Z GUIDANCE...AND WOULD NO BRING SOME RAIN IN ON
FRIDAY...WHILE ALL THE LATTER GUIDANCE HAS FRIDAY DRY. IF THE
TRENDS IN THE ECMWF CONTINUE...THEN POPS WOULD HAVE TO BE ADDED TO
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD BE
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT AREAS FROM NYC ON W COULD REACH OR JUST GO PAST
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY...RAISE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY...THEN SHOULD
BE ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. NOTE...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT IT COULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST. FOR
FRIDAY...IF THE 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THEN HIGHS COULD BE AT
LEAST 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A GUSTY NNW FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND COLD
FRONT...SUSTAINED AROUND 10KT GUSTS 15-20KT. THIS DIMINISHES BY
EARLY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHRA LIKELY...WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR.
NW-N WIND G 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS WEEKEND.
OCNL WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ON THE SOUND AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY WITH A RELATIVELY
RELAXED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO
SCA LEVELS ON ALL WATERS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY DAY TODAY WITH GUSTY N-NW FLOW WILL RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES
BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH AT TIMES.
THIS WILL ENHANCE FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE
NEW WEEK.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF THIS APPEARS LOWER
THAN IT DID YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS - IF
ANY.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MALOIT/JM
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MPS










000
FXUS61 KALY 191419
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1019 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MILD AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE ALONG THE NYS/CANADIAN BORDER IS POISED TO PASS THROUGH
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH PART OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY SFC TROUGH
PASSAGE...AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT OCCUR. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...ALONG WITH AN
INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND...WHICH COULD REACH 25-30 MPH AT
TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

DEEP MIXING TO BETWEEN 825-850 MB IS EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...SO DESPITE LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION...STILL EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...ESP IN VALLEY
AREAS...WHERE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WHERE ADDED DOWNSLOPING
MAY GIVE A FURTHER BOOST IN TEMPS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A BIT
COOLER...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MAINLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS POSSIBLY BARELY REACHING
THE LOWER 40S. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION.
INITIALLY...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS MAY PERSIST AS THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT TIGHT. HOWEVER...AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT TO CALM WIND...COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND A DRY...CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
RATHER COLD LEVELS FOR MID APRIL BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK...WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...WITH EVEN SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME LOWER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. SHOULD WINDS
PERSIST LONGER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WARMER MIN TEMPS WOULD
OCCUR.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION TO OCCUR. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...EXPECT SUN AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REACH 60-65 IN VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER THAN TODAY...BUT WILL INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST...ESP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...PERHAPS REACHING 10-20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...TRICKY CALL ON MIN TEMPS...AS A SOUTH WIND...SOME
PASSING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...AND OVERALL LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MAY KEEP TEMPS MUCH HIGHER THAN SAT NT/SUN AM. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH
GENERALLY LOWER/MID 30S EXPECTED IN VALLEYS...WITH SOME 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...BUT MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT AS A
WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION TOWARD
THE REGION WILL SLOW CONSIDERABLY. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...MOST OF
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
REMAIN N AND W OF THE REGION FOR MOST OF MONDAY...AND ONLY REACHING
N/W AREAS MON NT...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. SO...KEEPING MOST AREAS OUTSIDE
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS DRY FOR MONDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS
INDICATED FOR MON NT FOR FAR N/W AREAS LATE. FURTHER LOW LEVEL
WARMING SHOULD ALLOW MON MAX TEMPS TO REACH 65-70 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
A RATHER MILD MON NT IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH MOST MINS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WET IN MOST AREAS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED TO OUR NORTH
AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR CAPE COD AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THUS MOST OF TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK WET WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AS MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX CROSS THE REGION SO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.
ON FRIDAY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY. SO AFTER A DRY
DAY ON THURSDAY EXPECT MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO END THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL AVERAGE OUT TO BE
SEASONABLE FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGHS
ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70
SOUTHEAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH READINGS FROM
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...ALTHOUGH SOME
UPPER 40S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH SOME
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WHICH ENDS AT 12Z SUNDAY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SKC MUCH OF THE TIME
WITH JUST A FEW PASSING CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS UNTIL MID
MORNING...THEN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GUSTY AT
TIMES...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS ON TODAY. THE WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 25 MPH LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...
     LOW RH VALUES OF 25-35 PERCENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP...WITH
SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
TO 5-15 MPH...AND SHOULD DECREASE TO 5 MPH OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL THEN TREND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AND INCREASE TO 5-15 MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
WILL THEN DROP INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER HAS DROPPED TO MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE...AND IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT FALLS COMPLETELY
BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV









000
FXUS61 KBGM 191408
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1008 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TODAY...INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...WILL
MODERATE SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
10 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF CLDS IS DROPPING SOUTH IN NRLY FLOW. HV UPDATED GRIDS TO
GO PRTLY-MSTLY CLDY FOR THE MRNG HRS NORTH OF THE SRN TIER AND
SUN SHUD WORK ITS MAGIC TO DISSIPATE CLD CVR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS. HV MASSAGED HRLY T/TD GRIDS AND WL LWR MAXES LATER IF NEEDED
DUE TO CLD CVR, HWVR THINKS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JUST A FEW PATCHY LOWER SC
ACRS C NY AND NRN PA WITH PLENTY OF CI ACRS PA FROM A SRN BRANCH
CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S AS OF 6 AM. THIS CIRRUS SHIELD WILL
BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH THIS MORNING AS A DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FORCES THE UPPER CONFLUENCE ZONE
FARTHER SOUTH TODAY. BEHIND THIS DIGGING UPPER LEVEL WAVE A POLAR
AIR MASS WILL DROP SOUTH WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY
OVER NY/PA. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN ACRS THE ENTIRE WFO
BINGHAMTON FORECAST AREA...MORE SO THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. THE
ADVERTISED LULL IN CLDS IS OCCURRING AND WILL CONT UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE. SINCE LL MOISTURE IS NOT AS MUCH AS EARLIER EXPECTED NOT
EXPECTING ANY SPRINKLE ACVTY. EVEN WITH SFC DEWPOINTS A BIT LOWER
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE TOP OF THE
PROJECTED MIXED LAYER WILL BRING TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB DOWN TO
-1C IN NE PA TO -5C IN NC NY BY LATE MORNING. WITH INSOLATION
BELIEVE SCT-BKN SC/CU FORMS BY LATE MORNING GIVEN THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND SFC DWPTS CLOSE TO FREEZING. SKIES SHUD CLEAR OUT AS
THE BNDRY LAYER GROWS BEYOND 850 MB THIS AFTERNOON. HENCE HAVE SKIES
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 850 MB AND HIGHER UP
BUILDS ACRS THE REGION WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW SO WE SHUD HAVE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOME CI FROM NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD ACRS NC NY SUN PM. SUNDAY WILL BE MILDER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LARGER SEPARATION BETWEEN
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT
/ESPECIALLY FIRST HALF BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE
IN/...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED WARMER TREND OF GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY...AFTER 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM AGREE NOW ON WAITING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TO SWEEP COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION.
THE RAIN ITSELF IS A SOLID BET...IT IS JUST A MATTER OF WHICH TIME
OF DAY WILL BE THE MAIN RAINFALL. WENT AHEAD WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD
OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...AND AS THE TIME NEARS WE WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER HEM IN WHICH SPECIFIC HOURS WILL BE INVOLVED. FRONT WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH...TO WHICH
WE ANTICIPATE LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT OTHER THAN DAMPENING PLANS
FOR GENERAL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THERMAL PROFILES ALSO TOO STABLE
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...SO NO LIGHTNING EXPECTED.

RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT AND THEN EVENTUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK TO UPPER 50S-MID 60S FOR HIGHS...FOLLOWED
BY UPPER 30S-LOW 40S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...
BEHIND SURFACE FRONT FROM TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DROPS ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. GFS-ECMWF RUNS BOTH KEEP
IT AS AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SWINGS THROUGH...BEFORE DIFFERING ON ITS
EVOLUTION WELL OFFSHORE. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES GET SUB-540
DECAMETERS FOR A TIME...CONTRIBUTING TO THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. STILL A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL WITH THAT UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH.

DRY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CHARGE AT SURFACE...AND RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ALSO
MODERATING...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY...BUT NEXT WAVE MAY ALSO BE
APPROACHING BY THEN WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF COURSE WILL BE SORTED OUT BETTER IN COMING
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS REACHED INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND WILL SOON BE
THRU KAVP. POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS HAS SCATTERED OUT. A FEW PATCHY
MVFR CIGS WERE STILL PRESENT IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF C NY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SCT-BKN VFR
CUMULUS/SC TO FORM LATE MORNING WITH INSOLATION. HOWEVER...WITH
SUCH DRY AIR ABOVE THE PROJECTED MIXED LAYER...THESE CLDS SHUD
CLEAR OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MOST TAFS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
AT KRME WHERE THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COOLER WHICH WILL LEAD TO
THE CLDS HANGING ON LONGER.

AFTER CLDS CLEAR OUT LATER TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST THRU
12Z SUN.

EXPECT NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
5 AM SAT UPDATE...

FOR TODAY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE
30S PERCENT IN FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S PERCENT
IN THE REST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES. FINE FUELS WERE RUNNING BELOW 10
PERCENT. THIS COMES CLOSE TO OUR RED FLAG CRITERIA IN PA. IN NY
THE CRITERIA IS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH OR MORE. BIGGEST QUESTION
WILL BE THE WIND GUSTS IN NE PA AND THAT IS WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY LIES
AT THIS TIME. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH CTP AND PHI WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO COVER AND DAY SHIFT CAN COORDINATE WITH PA STATE PARTNERS
TO SEE IF RED FLAG IS WARRANTED LATER THIS MORNING.

FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DJN
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KBUF 191408
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1008 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COME LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER EASTERN HALF OF AREA WITH LOW LEVEL
MIXING. AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE...EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE FORECAST MAX TEMPS
WERE NUDGED A LITTLE HIGHER THIS AFETRNOON AWAY FROM LAKE INFLUENCES
AFTER LOOKING AT 12Z BUF SOUNDING.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT
WIND REGIME. MOST OVERNIGHT LOWS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A BEAUTIFUL EASTER SUNDAY...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY
DRIFTS EASTWARD AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. PLENTY OF DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER...WITH JUST A MODEST INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL HELP PUMP 850 MB TEMPS UP TO BETWEEN +3C AND
+7C...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
BULK OF THE AREA SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO ALL
THIS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES...WHERE DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER...AND
POTENTIALLY CONFINED TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE IT WILL THEN
STALL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE LIFTING A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CENTRAL US-CANADA BORDER...AND THE
CONSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD SURFACE WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWER CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER AND POINTS NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY...WITH OUR AREA OTHERWISE
REMAINING DRY ALONG WITH JUST A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RENDER SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR AT LEAST A PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE
AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY
SUNNY. WITH A MILDER OVERALL AIRMASS IN PLACE...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD AVERAGE SOME 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO SATURDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOST AREAS SEEING READINGS BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN WARMER DAY ON MONDAY COMPARED TO
SUNDAY...WHEN 850 MB TEMPS OF +6C TO +9C SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS THOSE LAKESHORE AREAS IMMEDIATELY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...
WHERE A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS
NOTICEABLY COOLER.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE EAST
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE HEADING OFF TO
EASTERN NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE
PROCESS...IT WILL PUSH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE THUS CONTINUED
WITH A SWATH OF HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WHICH PEAK
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT MILD LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OF MILD AIR THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE ENCROACHING
COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THEN FOLLOWING
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW BODILY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER...ENOUGH SO TO SEND HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER
THAN NORMAL READINGS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THAT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL CREST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...BEFORE SLIDING EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY GIVING
WAY TO THE NEXT SURFACE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
SHOWER CHANCES RETURN ON FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...A GENERAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RECOVER BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S AGAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 2K FEET MAINLY EAST OF GENESSEE
VALLEY WILL DIMINISH BY AROUND 17Z. OTHERWISE VFR AREAWIDE THROUGH
TONIGHT.  NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/CHANCE SHOWERS EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND
MINIMAL WAVES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...TMA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 191350
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
950 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH
SUNDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO CROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING.
THESE FEATURES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A RATHER DREARY START TO
SATURDAY WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOWER-
ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT
WITH SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 1500 FT (AS PER WEBCAMS AND BTV-4 BUFKIT
THERMAL PROFILES). HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INDICATE AREAL
COVERAGE WORDING WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION. WITH STILL A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS BACK ACROSS EASTERN QUEBEC...FEEL HIGHS MAY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES TOO WARM. THOUGH SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY...ONLY A FEW HOURS OF SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH A POST-FRONTAL
COLD AND DRY ADVECTION REGIME THROUGH THE COLUMN MAY ONLY SUPPORT
HIGHS INTO THE 40S...COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. ONCE SKIES
DO CLEAR OUT BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST GUSTS TO
PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY (PEAKING OUT AROUND 30 MPH) AS COLD
ADVECTION ESTABLISHES BETTER MIXING DEPTHS AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF AS SURFACE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES...AN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ON SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAINLY UPPER 50S.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED...A NICE DAY ON TAP. QUIET
WEATHER CONTINUES OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BE WARMER THAN TONIGHT. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
NICE DAY...WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUING AND MAX TEMPS IN THE
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE TUESDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS TO START ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TO START THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALLOWING
FOR A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
SHOULDN`T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BUT CAN`T RULE OUT
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW
REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SHOWERS IS LIKELY
FROM TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
SECONDARY LOW WILL DETERMINE LENGTH AND AMOUNT OF RAIN. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO
THE 60S ON TUESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT POST-FRONT FALLING
BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S. SOME SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE ON
THE TAIL-END OF PRECIP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS
COMBINED WITH MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND
OROGRAPHIC RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. AS A RESULT
WE`LL ALSO BE LOOKING AT A BELOW NORMAL DAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...45-55F FOR HIGHS. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND A NICE DAY/COOL
NIGHTS. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY FROM 50-60F WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH NIGHTS. BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SO WE`LL BE TRENDING ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
MORNING IS DELIVERING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THESE WILL GRADUALLY WANE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE MORNING...HANGING ON IN EASTERN AND HIGHER ELEVATION
TAF SITES THE LONGEST. ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RUT ARE
ALREADY EXPERIENCING OR ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
REDUCTION TO MVFR...MAINLY DUE TO SOME LOWER CEILINGS POST-FRONT
IN UPSLOPE FLOW. SLK IS SEEING SOME IFR. IMPROVEMENT AFTER 14Z IS
FORECAST WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DEVELOP WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS LIKELY.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ABATE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI













000
FXUS61 KOKX 191153
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
753 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TODAY...AND THEN SETTLES OVER THE GULF
OF MAINE FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TOWARDS...THEN OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK. WILL ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST SFC
OBS AND SAT IMG. WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...AND BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRES CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST. WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND RIDGING AT THE SFC...WILL EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH 20-25 MPH GUSTS. SKIES CLEAR OUT
LATER THIS MORNING...GIVING TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A BLEND OF MET/MAV
MOS GUIDANCE WAS USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK AS HIGH PRES
MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY...AND THEN SETTLES OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT
IN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AS WELL AS
THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND. ELSEWHERE...LOWS DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE.

AS THE HIGH TRACKS EAST...WINDS SHIFT TO A COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY IN MOST
SPOTS. HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST...AND
IN THE LOW 60S INLAND. SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR
COASTAL AREAS ON MONDAY...BUT THE INTERIOR WILL BE ABLE TO WARM
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOWS DROP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO PHASING BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY...TO THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY...AS IT BEGINS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOLID CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS THAT
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY...THEN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN
FROM NW TO SE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS THEN WILL
TAPER OF FROM NW TO SE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN CONSENSUS...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT TUESDAY NIGHT. DO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE (CHANCE FAR NE ZONES) OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN RESPONSE TO CORE OF THE MID-UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF THE RIDGE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SPED UP A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF AND REMAINDER OF
THE 00Z GUIDANCE...AND WOULD NO BRING SOME RAIN IN ON
FRIDAY...WHILE ALL THE LATTER GUIDANCE HAS FRIDAY DRY. IF THE
TRENDS IN THE ECMWF CONTINUE...THEN POPS WOULD HAVE TO BE ADDED TO
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD BE
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT AREAS FROM NYC ON W COULD REACH OR JUST GO PAST
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY...RAISE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY...THEN SHOULD
BE ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. NOTE...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT IT COULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST. FOR
FRIDAY...IF THE 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THEN HIGHS COULD BE AT
LEAST 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO VEER TO THE NW FROM THE SW THAN
EXPECTED...SO HAVE DELAYED WINDS GETTING TO THE LEFT OF 300
TRUE/310 MAGNETIC UNTIL 12-14Z. WIND SHIFT HAS OCCURED AT
KLGA...SO SHOULD OCCUR BY 13Z KJFK AND KEWR.

APPEARS WINDS SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 15-20KT FROM LATE MORNING
INTO MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS ABATE BY EARLY EVENING AS WINDS VEER TO
THE N THEN NNE-NE AND SPEEDS FALL BELOW 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHRA LIKELY...WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE. NW-N WINDS G202-5KT POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR.
NW-N WIND G 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL ALLOW SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO EXPIRE AS SEAS HAVE FALLEN
BELOW 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS WEEKEND.
OCNL WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ON THE SOUND AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY WITH A RELATIVELY
RELAXED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO
SCA LEVELS ON ALL WATERS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY DAY TODAY WITH GUSTY N-NW FLOW WILL RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES
BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH AT TIMES.
THIS WILL ENHANCE FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE
NEW WEEK.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF THIS APPEARS LOWER
THAN IT DID YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS - IF
ANY.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MPS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 191137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH
SUNDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ALONG WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT. SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE BORDER HELPING TO ENHANCE
PRECIP SLIGHTLY. SHOWERS WILL END IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SKIES
WILL BECOME SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. 850
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -6C. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY...UP TO 25
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF AS SURFACE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES...AN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ON SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAINLY UPPER 50S.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED...A NICE DAY ON TAP. QUIET
WEATHER CONTINUES OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BE WARMER THAN TONIGHT. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
NICE DAY...WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUING AND MAX TEMPS IN THE
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE TUESDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS TO START ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TO START THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALLOWING
FOR A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
SHOULDN`T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BUT CAN`T RULE OUT
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW
REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SHOWERS IS LIKELY
FROM TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
SECONDARY LOW WILL DETERMINE LENGTH AND AMOUNT OF RAIN. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO
THE 60S ON TUESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT POST-FRONT FALLING
BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S. SOME SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE ON
THE TAIL-END OF PRECIP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS
COMBINED WITH MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND
OROGRAPHIC RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. AS A RESULT
WE`LL ALSO BE LOOKING AT A BELOW NORMAL DAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...45-55F FOR HIGHS. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND A NICE DAY/COOL
NIGHTS. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY FROM 50-60F WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH NIGHTS. BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SO WE`LL BE TRENDING ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
MORNING IS DELIVERING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THESE WILL GRADUALLY WANE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE MORNING...HANGING ON IN EASTERN AND HIGHER ELEVATION
TAF SITES THE LONGEST. ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RUT ARE
ALREADY EXPERIENCING OR ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
REDUCTION TO MVFR...MAINLY DUE TO SOME LOWER CEILINGS POST-FRONT
IN UPSLOPE FLOW. SLK IS SEEING SOME IFR. IMPROVEMENT AFTER 14Z IS
FORECAST WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DEVELOP WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS LIKELY.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ABATE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI






000
FXUS61 KBUF 191126
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
726 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COME LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND SETTLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT PROVIDING FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER. 850 MB THERMAL TROF PROPAGATING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST A SMIDGEN BELOW NORMAL...WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT
WIND REGIME. MOST OVERNIGHT LOWS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A BEAUTIFUL EASTER SUNDAY...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY
DRIFTS EASTWARD AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. PLENTY OF DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER...WITH JUST A MODEST INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL HELP PUMP 850 MB TEMPS UP TO BETWEEN +3C AND
+7C...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
BULK OF THE AREA SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO ALL
THIS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES...WHERE DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER...AND
POTENTIALLY CONFINED TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE IT WILL THEN
STALL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE LIFTING A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CENTRAL US-CANADA BORDER...AND THE
CONSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD SURFACE WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWER CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER AND POINTS NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY...WITH OUR AREA OTHERWISE
REMAINING DRY ALONG WITH JUST A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RENDER SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR AT LEAST A PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE
AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY
SUNNY. WITH A MILDER OVERALL AIRMASS IN PLACE...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD AVERAGE SOME 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO SATURDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOST AREAS SEEING READINGS BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN WARMER DAY ON MONDAY COMPARED TO
SUNDAY...WHEN 850 MB TEMPS OF +6C TO +9C SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS THOSE LAKESHORE AREAS IMMEDIATELY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...
WHERE A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS
NOTICEABLY COOLER.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE EAST
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE HEADING OFF TO
EASTERN NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE
PROCESS...IT WILL PUSH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE THUS CONTINUED
WITH A SWATH OF HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WHICH PEAK
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT MILD LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OF MILD AIR THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE ENCROACHING
COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THEN FOLLOWING
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW BODILY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER...ENOUGH SO TO SEND HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER
THAN NORMAL READINGS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THAT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL CREST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...BEFORE SLIDING EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY GIVING
WAY TO THE NEXT SURFACE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
SHOWER CHANCES RETURN ON FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...A GENERAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RECOVER BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S AGAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESIDUAL LINGERING CLOUDINESS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AT KART THROUGH THE MORNING.
LITTLE IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS
WILL SCATTERED OUT AT KART BY AROUND 16Z...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES
TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD
TODAY. VFR/UNLIMITED CIGS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/CHANCE SHOWERS EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND
MINIMAL WAVES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBTV 191050
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
650 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH
SUNDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. 850 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -6C. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE GUSTY...UP TO 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF AS SURFACE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES...AN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ON SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAINLY UPPER 50S.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED...A NICE DAY ON TAP. QUIET
WEATHER CONTINUES OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BE WARMER THAN TONIGHT. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
NICE DAY...WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUING AND MAX TEMPS IN THE
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE TUESDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS TO START ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TO START THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALLOWING
FOR A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
SHOULDN`T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BUT CAN`T RULE OUT
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW
REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SHOWERS IS LIKELY
FROM TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
SECONDARY LOW WILL DETERMINE LENGTH AND AMOUNT OF RAIN. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO
THE 60S ON TUESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT POST-FRONT FALLING
BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S. SOME SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE ON
THE TAIL-END OF PRECIP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS
COMBINED WITH MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND
OROGRAPHIC RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. AS A RESULT
WE`LL ALSO BE LOOKING AT A BELOW NORMAL DAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...45-55F FOR HIGHS. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND A NICE DAY/COOL
NIGHTS. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY FROM 50-60F WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH NIGHTS. BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SO WE`LL BE TRENDING ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
MORNING IS DELIVERING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THESE WILL GRADUALLY WANE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE MORNING...HANGING ON IN EASTERN AND HIGHER ELEVATION
TAF SITES THE LONGEST. ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RUT ARE
ALREADY EXPERIENCING OR ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
REDUCTION TO MVFR...MAINLY DUE TO SOME LOWER CEILINGS POST-FRONT
IN UPSLOPE FLOW. SLK IS SEEING SOME IFR. IMPROVEMENT AFTER 14Z IS
FORECAST WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DEVELOP WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS LIKELY.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ABATE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBGM 191041
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
641 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TODAY...INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...WILL
MODERATE SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JUST A FEW PATCHY LOWER SC
ACRS C NY AND NRN PA WITH PLENTY OF CI ACRS PA FROM A SRN BRANCH
CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWEAST U.S AS OF 6 AM. THIS CIRRUS SHIELD WILL
BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH THIS MORNING AS A DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FORCES THE UPPER CONFLUENCE ZONE
FARTHER SOUTH TODAY. BEHIND THIS DIGGING UPPER LEVEL WAVE A POLAR
AIR MASS WILL DROP SOUTH WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY
OVER NY/PA. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN ACRS THE ENTIRE WFO
BINGHAMTON FORECAST AREA...MORE SO THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. THE
ADVERTISED LULL IN CLDS IS OCCURRING AND WILL CONT UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE. SINCE LL MOISTURE IS NOT AS MUCH AS EARLIER EXPECTED NOT
EXPECTING ANY SPRINKLE ACVTY. EVEN WITH SFC DEWPOINTS A BIT LOWER
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE TOP OF THE
PROJECTED MIXED LAYER WILL BRING TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB DOWN TO
-1C IN NE PA TO -5C IN NC NY BY LATE MORNING. WITH INSOLATION
BELIEVE SCT-BKN SC/CU FORMS BY LATE MORNING GIVEN THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND SFC DWPTS CLOSE TO FREEZING. SKIES SHUD CLEAR OUT AS
THE BNDRY LAYER GROWS BEYOND 850 MB THIS AFTERNOON. HENCE HAVE SKIES
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 850 MB AND HIGHER UP
BUILDS ACRS THE REGION WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW SO WE SHUD HAVE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOME CI FROM NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD ACRS NC NY SUN PM. SUNDAY WILL BE MILDER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LARGER SEPARATION BETWEEN
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT
/ESPECIALLY FIRST HALF BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE
IN/...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED WARMER TREND OF GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY...AFTER 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM AGREE NOW ON WAITING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TO SWEEP COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION.
THE RAIN ITSELF IS A SOLID BET...IT IS JUST A MATTER OF WHICH TIME
OF DAY WILL BE THE MAIN RAINFALL. WENT AHEAD WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD
OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...AND AS THE TIME NEARS WE WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER HEM IN WHICH SPECIFIC HOURS WILL BE INVOLVED. FRONT WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH...TO WHICH
WE ANTICIPATE LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT OTHER THAN DAMPENING PLANS
FOR GENERAL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THERMAL PROFILES ALSO TOO STABLE
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...SO NO LIGHTNING EXPECTED.

RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT AND THEN EVENTUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK TO UPPER 50S-MID 60S FOR HIGHS...FOLLOWED
BY UPPER 30S-LOW 40S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...
BEHIND SURFACE FRONT FROM TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DROPS ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. GFS-ECMWF RUNS BOTH KEEP
IT AS AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SWINGS THROUGH...BEFORE DIFFERING ON ITS
EVOLUTION WELL OFFSHORE. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES GET SUB-540
DECAMETERS FOR A TIME...CONTRIBUTING TO THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. STILL A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL WITH THAT UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH.

DRY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CHARGE AT SURFACE...AND RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ALSO
MODERATING...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY...BUT NEXT WAVE MAY ALSO BE
APPROACHING BY THEN WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF COURSE WILL BE SORTED OUT BETTER IN COMING
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS REACHED INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND WILL SOON BE
THRU KAVP. POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS HAS SCATTERED OUT. A FEW PATCHY
MVFR CIGS WERE STILL PRESENT IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF C NY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SCT-BKN VFR
CUMULUS/SC TO FORM LATE MORNING WITH INSOLATION. HOWEVER...WITH
SUCH DRY AIR ABOVE THE PROJECTED MIXED LAYER...THESE CLDS SHUD
CLEAR OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MOST TAFS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
AT KRME WHERE THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COOLER WHICH WILL LEAD TO
THE CLDS HANGING ON LONGER.

AFTER CLDS CLEAR OUT LATER TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST THRU
12Z SUN.

EXPECT NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
5 AM SAT UPDATE...

FOR TODAY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE
30S PERCENT IN FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S PERCENT
IN THE REST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES. FINE FUELS WERE RUNNING BELOW 10
PERCENT. THIS COMES CLOSE TO OUR RED FLAG CRITERIA IN PA. IN NY
THE CRITERIA IS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH OR MORE. BIGGEST QUESTION
WILL BE THE WIND GUSTS IN NE PA AND THAT IS WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY LIES
AT THIS TIME. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH CTP AND PHI WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO COVER AND DAY SHIFT CAN COORDINATE WITH PA STATE PARTNERS
TO SEE IF RED FLAG IS WARRANTED LATER THIS MORNING.

FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DJN
FIRE WEATHER...DJN







000
FXUS61 KALY 191024
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
624 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MILD AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO PASS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROUGH AND UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE ALONG THE NYS/CANADIAN BORDER IS POISED TO PASS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS REMAIN IN TACT THROUGH
MID MORNING.

IN ADDITION...LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY SFC TROUGH PASSAGE...AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT
OCCUR. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND DISSIPATE DURING
THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...ESP
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SFC FRONT PASSES. THEN...FOR LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH AN
INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND...WHICH COULD REACH 25-30 MPH AT
TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

DEEP MIXING TO BETWEEN 825-850 MB IS EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...SO DESPITE LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION...STILL EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...ESP IN VALLEY
AREAS...WHERE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WHERE ADDED DOWNSLOPING
MAY GIVE A FURTHER BOOST IN TEMPS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A BIT
COOLER...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MAINLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS POSSIBLY BARELY REACHING
THE LOWER 40S. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION.
INITIALLY...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS MAY PERSIST AS THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT TIGHT. HOWEVER...AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT TO CALM WIND...COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND A DRY...CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
RATHER COLD LEVELS FOR MID APRIL BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK...WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...WITH EVEN SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME LOWER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. SHOULD WINDS
PERSIST LONGER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WARMER MIN TEMPS WOULD
OCCUR.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION TO OCCUR. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...EXPECT SUN AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REACH 60-65 IN VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER THAN TODAY...BUT WILL INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST...ESP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...PERHAPS REACHING 10-20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...TRICKY CALL ON MIN TEMPS...AS A SOUTH WIND...SOME
PASSING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...AND OVERALL LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MAY KEEP TEMPS MUCH HIGHER THAN SAT NT/SUN AM. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH
GENERALLY LOWER/MID 30S EXPECTED IN VALLEYS...WITH SOME 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...BUT MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT AS A
WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION TOWARD
THE REGION WILL SLOW CONSIDERABLY. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...MOST OF
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
REMAIN N AND W OF THE REGION FOR MOST OF MONDAY...AND ONLY REACHING
N/W AREAS MON NT...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. SO...KEEPING MOST AREAS OUTSIDE
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS DRY FOR MONDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS
INDICATED FOR MON NT FOR FAR N/W AREAS LATE. FURTHER LOW LEVEL
WARMING SHOULD ALLOW MON MAX TEMPS TO REACH 65-70 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
A RATHER MILD MON NT IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH MOST MINS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WET IN MOST AREAS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED TO OUR NORTH
AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR CAPE COD AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THUS MOST OF TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK WET WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AS MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX CROSS THE REGION SO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.
ON FRIDAY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY. SO AFTER A DRY
DAY ON THURSDAY EXPECT MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO END THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL AVERAGE OUT TO BE
SEASONABLE FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGHS
ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70
SOUTHEAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH READINGS FROM
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...ALTHOUGH SOME
UPPER 40S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH SOME
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WHICH ENDS AT 12Z SUNDAY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SKC MUCH OF THE TIME
WITH JUST A FEW PASSING CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS UNTIL MID
MORNING...THEN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GUSTY AT
TIMES...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS ON TODAY. THE WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 25 MPH LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...
...LOW RH VALUES OF 25-35 PERCENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP...WITH
SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
TO 5-15 MPH...AND SHOULD DECREASE TO 5 MPH OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL THEN TREND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AND INCREASE TO 5-15 MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
WILL THEN DROP INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER HAS DROPPED TO MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE...AND IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT FALLS COMPLETELY
BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 191021
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
621 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TODAY...AND THEN SETTLES OVER THE GULF
OF MAINE FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TOWARDS...THEN OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK. WILL ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST SFC
OBS AND SAT IMG. WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...AND BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRES CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST. WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND RIDGING AT THE SFC...WILL EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH 20-25 MPH GUSTS. SKIES CLEAR OUT
LATER THIS MORNING...GIVING TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A BLEND OF MET/MAV
MOS GUIDANCE WAS USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK AS HIGH PRES
MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY...AND THEN SETTLES OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT
IN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AS WELL AS
THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND. ELSEWHERE...LOWS DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE.

AS THE HIGH TRACKS EAST...WINDS SHIFT TO A COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY IN MOST
SPOTS. HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST...AND
IN THE LOW 60S INLAND. SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR
COASTAL AREAS ON MONDAY...BUT THE INTERIOR WILL BE ABLE TO WARM
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOWS DROP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO PHASING BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY...TO THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY...AS IT BEGINS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOLID CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS THAT
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY...THEN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN
FROM NW TO SE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS THEN WILL
TAPER OF FROM NW TO SE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN CONSENSUS...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT TUESDAY NIGHT. DO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE (CHANCE FAR NE ZONES) OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN RESPONSE TO CORE OF THE MID-UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF THE RIDGE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SPED UP A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF AND REMAINDER OF
THE 00Z GUIDANCE...AND WOULD NO BRING SOME RAIN IN ON
FRIDAY...WHILE ALL THE LATTER GUIDANCE HAS FRIDAY DRY. IF THE
TRENDS IN THE ECMWF CONTINUE...THEN POPS WOULD HAVE TO BE ADDED TO
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD BE
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT AREAS FROM NYC ON W COULD REACH OR JUST GO PAST
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY...RAISE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY...THEN SHOULD
BE ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. NOTE...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT IT COULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST. FOR
FRIDAY...IF THE 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THEN HIGHS COULD BE AT
LEAST 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA INTO TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO VEER TO THE NW FROM THE SW THAN
EXPECTED...SO HAVE DELAYED WINDS GETTING TO THE LEFT OF 300
TRUE/310 MAGNETIC UNTIL 12-13Z. APPEARS WINDS SHOULD GUST TO
AROUND 15-20KT FROM LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS ABATE
BY EARLY EVENING AS WINDS VEER TO THE N THEN NNE-NE AND SPEEDS
FALL BELOW 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHRA LIKELY...WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE. NW-N WINDS G202-5KT POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR.
NW-N WIND G 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL ALLOW SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO EXPIRE AS SEAS HAVE FALLEN
BELOW 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS WEEKEND.
OCNL WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ON THE SOUND AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY WITH A RELATIVELY
RELAXED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO
SCA LEVELS ON ALL WATERS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY DAY TODAY WITH GUSTY N-NW FLOW WILL RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES
BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH AT TIMES.
THIS WILL ENHANCE FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE
NEW WEEK.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF THIS APPEARS LOWER
THAN IT DID YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS - IF
ANY.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MPS








000
FXUS61 KBGM 191015
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
615 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TODAY...INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...WILL
MODERATE SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JUST A FEW PATCHY LOWER SC
ACRS C NY AND NRN PA WITH PLENTY OF CI ACRS PA FROM A SRN BRANCH
CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWEAST U.S AS OF 6 AM. THIS CIRRUS SHIELD WILL
BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH THIS MORNING AS A DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FORCES THE UPPER CONFLUENCE ZONE
FARTHER SOUTH TODAY. BEHIND THIS DIGGING UPPER LEVEL WAVE A POLAR
AIR MASS WILL DROP SOUTH WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY
OVER NY/PA. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN ACRS THE ENTIRE WFO
BINGHAMTON FORECAST AREA...MORE SO THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. THE
ADVERTISED LULL IN CLDS IS OCCURRING AND WILL CONT UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE. SINCE LL MOISTURE IS NOT AS MUCH AS EARLIER EXPECTED NOT
EXPECTING ANY SPRINKLE ACVTY. EVEN WITH SFC DEWPOINTS A BIT LOWER
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE TOP OF THE
PROJECTED MIXED LAYER WILL BRING TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB DOWN TO
-1C IN NE PA TO -5C IN NC NY BY LATE MORNING. WITH INSOLATION
BELIEVE SCT-BKN SC/CU FORMS BY LATE MORNING GIVEN THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND SFC DWPTS CLOSE TO FREEZING. SKIES SHUD CLEAR OUT AS
THE BNDRY LAYER GROWS BEYOND 850 MB THIS AFTERNOON. HENCE HAVE SKIES
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THRU 850 MB AND HIGHER UP
BUILDS ACRS THE REGION WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW SO WE SHUD HAVE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOME CI FROM NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD ACRS NC NY SUN PM. SUNDAY WILL BE MILDER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LARGER SEPARATION BETWEEN
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT
/ESPECIALLY FIRST HALF BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE
IN/...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED WARMER TREND OF GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY...AFTER 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM AGREE NOW ON WAITING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TO SWEEP COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION.
THE RAIN ITSELF IS A SOLID BET...IT IS JUST A MATTER OF WHICH TIME
OF DAY WILL BE THE MAIN RAINFALL. WENT AHEAD WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD
OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...AND AS THE TIME NEARS WE WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER HEM IN WHICH SPECIFIC HOURS WILL BE INVOLVED. FRONT WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH...TO WHICH
WE ANTICIPATE LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT OTHER THAN DAMPENING PLANS
FOR GENERAL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THERMAL PROFILES ALSO TOO STABLE
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...SO NO LIGHTNING EXPECTED.

RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT AND THEN EVENTUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK TO UPPER 50S-MID 60S FOR HIGHS...FOLLOWED
BY UPPER 30S-LOW 40S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...
BEHIND SURFACE FRONT FROM TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DROPS ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. GFS-ECMWF RUNS BOTH KEEP
IT AS AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SWINGS THROUGH...BEFORE DIFFERING ON ITS
EVOLUTION WELL OFFSHORE. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES GET SUB-540
DECAMETERS FOR A TIME...CONTRIBUTING TO THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. STILL A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL WITH THAT UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH.

DRY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CHARGE AT SURFACE...AND RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ALSO
MODERATING...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY...BUT NEXT WAVE MAY ALSO BE
APPROACHING BY THEN WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF COURSE WILL BE SORTED OUT BETTER IN COMING
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND
EXTENDED FROM ABOUT ONEONTA NY TO TOWANDA PA IN THE WFO BGM
FORECAST AREA. THERE WAS POST FRONTAL BKN-OVC CLOUDS AND JUST A
FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS OTSEGO CO. THESE INSIGNIFICANT
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHRA WILL NOT AFFECT ANY TAF SITE ERLY THIS
MORNING.

THE BKN-OVC POST FRONTL CLOUDS WAS MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR...ESPECIALLY AT KSYR...KRME...KITH AND KBGM. AS THE FRONT
WORKS FARTHER SOUTH LL DRYING WILL OCCUR AND SHUD SCATTER OUT THIS
MOISTURE SO EXPECT JUST SCT CLDS BY ARND 8-10Z.

AFTER SUNRISE...COLDER AIR WILL BLOW IN ABV THE SFC LAYER WHICH
WILL BE DECOUPLED AND HENCE THE SFC DRYING WILL WEAKEN. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A SCT-BKN CU/SC LAYER TO DEVELOP WITH INSOLATION FROM MID
TO LATE MORNING. I EXPECT MAINLY VFR 3500 TO 5000 FEET CLD BASES.
AS THIS OCCURS...STRGR WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SFC AND THIS CLOUD LAYER SHUD MIX OUT TO MAINLY CLR SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. CLR SKIES WILL REMAIN AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM SW TO NW AFTER FROPA AT KAVP AROUND 07Z OR
SO. REST OF TAF SITES WILL HAVE W-NW WINDS MAINLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE A DECENT LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KICK WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE WINDS VEER FROM THE NW TO THE N BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
2 AM SAT UPDATE...

FOR TODAY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE
30S PERCENT IN FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S PERCENT
IN THE REST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES. FINE FUELS WERE RUNNING BELOW 10
PERCENT. THIS COMES CLOSE TO OUR RED FLAG CRITERIA IN PA. IN NY
THE CRITERIA IS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH OR MORE. BIGGEST QUESTION
WILL BE THE WIND GUSTS IN NE PA AND THAT IS WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY LIES
AT THIS TIME. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH CTP AND PHI WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO COVER AND DAY SHIFT CAN COORDINATE WITH PA STATE PARTNERS
TO SEE IF RED FLAG IS WARRANTED LATER THIS MORNING.

FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DJN
FIRE WEATHER...DJN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 190918
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
518 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TODAY...AND THEN SETTLES OVER THE GULF
OF MAINE FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TOWARDS...THEN OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BUILD EAST TODAY. WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
RIDGING AT THE SFC...WILL EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH WITH 20-25 MPH GUSTS. SKIES CLEAR OUT LATER THIS
MORNING...GIVING TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A BLEND OF MET/MAV
MOS GUIDANCE WAS USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK AS HIGH PRES
MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY...AND THEN SETTLES OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT
IN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AS WELL AS
THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND. ELSEWHERE...LOWS DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE.

AS THE HIGH TRACKS EAST...WINDS SHIFT TO A COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY IN MOST
SPOTS. HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST...AND
IN THE LOW 60S INLAND. SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR
COASTAL AREAS ON MONDAY...BUT THE INTERIOR WILL BE ABLE TO WARM
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOWS DROP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO PHASING BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY...TO THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY...AS IT BEGINS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOLID CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS THAT
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY...THEN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN
FROM NW TO SE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS THEN WILL
TAPER OF FROM NW TO SE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN CONSENSUS...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT TUESDAY NIGHT. DO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE (CHANCE FAR NE ZONES) OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN RESPONSE TO CORE OF THE MID-UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF THE RIDGE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SPED UP A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF AND REMAINDER OF
THE 00Z GUIDANCE...AND WOULD NO BRING SOME RAIN IN ON
FRIDAY...WHILE ALL THE LATTER GUIDANCE HAS FRIDAY DRY. IF THE
TRENDS IN THE ECMWF CONTINUE...THEN POPS WOULD HAVE TO BE ADDED TO
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD BE
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT AREAS FROM NYC ON W COULD REACH OR JUST GO PAST
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY...RAISE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY...THEN SHOULD
BE ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. NOTE...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT IT COULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST. FOR
FRIDAY...IF THE 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THEN HIGHS COULD BE AT
LEAST 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA INTO TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO VEER TO THE NW FROM THE SW THAN
EXPECTED...SO HAVE DELAYED WINDS GETTING TO THE LEFT OF 300
TRUE/310 MAGNETIC UNTIL 12-13Z. APPEARS WINDS SHOULD GUST TO
AROUND 15-20KT FROM LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS ABATE
BY EARLY EVENING AS WINDS VEER TO THE N THEN NNE-NE AND SPEEDS
FALL BELOW 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHRA LIKELY...WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE. NW-N WINDS G202-5KT POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR.
NW-N WIND G 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OCEAN WATERS UNTIL 6
AM THIS MORNING AS SEAS CONTINUE TO AVERAGE RIGHT AROUND 5
FT...BUT ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING.

OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS
WEEKEND. OCNL WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUND AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY WITH A RELATIVELY
RELAXED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO
SCA LEVELS ON ALL WATERS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY DAY TODAY WITH GUSTY N-NW FLOW WILL RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES
BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH AT TIMES.
THIS WILL ENHANCE FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE
NEW WEEK.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF THIS APPEARS LOWER
THAN IT DID YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS - IF
ANY.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MPS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 190907
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
507 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH
SUNDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. 850 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -6C. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE GUSTY...UP TO 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF AS SURFACE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES...AN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ON SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAINLY UPPER 50S.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED...A NICE DAY ON TAP. QUIET
WEATHER CONTINUES OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BE WARMER THAN TONIGHT. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
NICE DAY...WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUING AND MAX TEMPS IN THE
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE TUESDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS TO START ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TO START THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALLOWING
FOR A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
SHOULDN`T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BUT CAN`T RULE OUT
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW
REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SHOWERS IS LIKELY
FROM TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
SECONDARY LOW WILL DETERMINE LENGTH AND AMOUNT OF RAIN. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO
THE 60S ON TUESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT POST-FRONT FALLING
BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S. SOME SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE ON
THE TAIL-END OF PRECIP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS
COMBINED WITH MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND
OROGRAPHIC RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. AS A RESULT
WE`LL ALSO BE LOOKING AT A BELOW NORMAL DAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...45-55F FOR HIGHS. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND A NICE DAY/COOL
NIGHTS. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY FROM 50-60F WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH NIGHTS. BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SO WE`LL BE TRENDING ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE
OTTAWA VALLEY BRINGING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
INTERVALS OF MVFR WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PERIOD OF LOWER
CLOUDS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE IN UPSLOPE FLOW. WINDS INITIALLY
S-SE ACROSS VT AND S-SW ACROSS NY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK. GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...GENERALLY 320/12G22KT. GUSTY WINDS WILL ABATE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBGM 190906
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
506 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TODAY...INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...WILL
MODERATE SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER SUNRISE...STRGR COLD AIR ADVECTION ABV THE SFC LAYER LEADS
TO COLD ENUF TEMPERATURES AS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS TO SUPPORT SCT-
BKN SC/CU FORMING WITH INSOLATION AND THE DIURNAL GROWTH OF THE
BNDRY LAYER FOR MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE
FOR THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA. MESOSCALE MODELS ALL
SHOW A BAND OF VERY HIGH RH AT 925 MB ADVECTING SOUTHWARD REACHING
C NY/NRN PA ARND 12Z. AFTER 15Z THE MODELS MIX OUT THIS MOISTURE.
THE EURO/GFS...OUR LOCAL 4KM WRF...WRFARW AND HRRR EVEN GO AS FAR
AS SPITTING OUT A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP SUGGESTING SOME SPRINKLES.
FOR NOW I JUST INCREASED THE CLD CVR FOR MID TO LATE MORNING AND
THEN MIX IT OUT BY AFTERNOON. WILL REASSESS WHETHER SOME SPRINKLES
WILL BE WARRANTED FOR LATER THIS MORNING WITH NEXT UPDATE. ITS
PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT AND OPTED TO KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING
WHICH IS WELL COLLOBARATED WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH OVER
THE CWA SAT NGT EXTENDING NORTH TO QUEBEC. COLDEST NIGHT COMING UP
WITH LOWS MOSTLY 25 TO 32. SOME RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST
SUNDAY BUT SFC WINDS LIGHT. HIGHS STILL IN THE L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LARGER SEPARATION BETWEEN
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT
/ESPECIALLY FIRST HALF BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE
IN/...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED WARMER TREND OF GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY...AFTER 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM AGREE NOW ON WAITING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TO SWEEP COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION.
THE RAIN ITSELF IS A SOLID BET...IT IS JUST A MATTER OF WHICH TIME
OF DAY WILL BE THE MAIN RAINFALL. WENT AHEAD WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD
OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...AND AS THE TIME NEARS WE WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER HEM IN WHICH SPECIFIC HOURS WILL BE INVOLVED. FRONT WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH...TO WHICH
WE ANTICIPATE LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT OTHER THAN DAMPENING PLANS
FOR GENERAL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THERMAL PROFILES ALSO TOO STABLE
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...SO NO LIGHTNING EXPECTED.

RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT AND THEN EVENTUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK TO UPPER 50S-MID 60S FOR HIGHS...FOLLOWED
BY UPPER 30S-LOW 40S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...
BEHIND SURFACE FRONT FROM TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DROPS ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. GFS-ECMWF RUNS BOTH KEEP
IT AS AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SWINGS THROUGH...BEFORE DIFFERING ON ITS
EVOLUTION WELL OFFSHORE. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES GET SUB-540
DECAMETERS FOR A TIME...CONTRIBUTING TO THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. STILL A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL WITH THAT UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH.

DRY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CHARGE AT SURFACE...AND RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ALSO
MODERATING...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY...BUT NEXT WAVE MAY ALSO BE
APPROACHING BY THEN WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF COURSE WILL BE SORTED OUT BETTER IN COMING
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND
EXTENDED FROM ABOUT ONEONTA NY TO TOWANDA PA IN THE WFO BGM
FORECAST AREA. THERE WAS POST FRONTAL BKN-OVC CLOUDS AND JUST A
FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS OTSEGO CO. THESE INSIGNIFICANT
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHRA WILL NOT AFFECT ANY TAF SITE ERLY THIS
MORNING.

THE BKN-OVC POST FRONTL CLOUDS WAS MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR...ESPECIALLY AT KSYR...KRME...KITH AND KBGM. AS THE FRONT
WORKS FARTHER SOUTH LL DRYING WILL OCCUR AND SHUD SCATTER OUT THIS
MOISTURE SO EXPECT JUST SCT CLDS BY ARND 8-10Z.

AFTER SUNRISE...COLDER AIR WILL BLOW IN ABV THE SFC LAYER WHICH
WILL BE DECOUPLED AND HENCE THE SFC DRYING WILL WEAKEN. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A SCT-BKN CU/SC LAYER TO DEVELOP WITH INSOLATION FROM MID
TO LATE MORNING. I EXPECT MAINLY VFR 3500 TO 5000 FEET CLD BASES.
AS THIS OCCURS...STRGR WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SFC AND THIS CLOUD LAYER SHUD MIX OUT TO MAINLY CLR SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. CLR SKIES WILL REMAIN AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM SW TO NW AFTER FROPA AT KAVP AROUND 07Z OR
SO. REST OF TAF SITES WILL HAVE W-NW WINDS MAINLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE A DECENT LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KICK WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE WINDS VEER FROM THE NW TO THE N BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
2 AM SAT UPDATE...

FOR TODAY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE
30S PERCENT IN FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S PERCENT
IN THE REST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES. FINE FUELS WERE RUNNING BELOW 10
PERCENT. THIS COMES CLOSE TO OUR RED FLAG CRITERIA IN PA. IN NY
THE CRITERIA IS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH OR MORE. BIGGEST QUESTION
WILL BE THE WIND GUSTS IN NE PA AND THAT IS WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY LIES
AT THIS TIME. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH CTP AND PHI WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO COVER AND DAY SHIFT CAN COORDINATE WITH PA STATE PARTNERS
TO SEE IF RED FLAG IS WARRANTED LATER THIS MORNING.

FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DJN
FIRE WEATHER...DJN






000
FXUS61 KALY 190846
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MILD AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO PASS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. EARLIER LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HAVE
DISSIPATED AND/OR MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK SFC TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA
POISED TO PASS THROUGH THIS MORNING...SOME ADDITIONAL SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES COULD REDEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS
REMAIN IN TACT THROUGH MID MORNING.

IN ADDITION...LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY SFC TROUGH...AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT OCCUR.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND DISSIPATE DURING THIS
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...ESP
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SFC FRONT PASSES. THEN...FOR LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH AN
INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND...WHICH COULD REACH 25-30 MPH AT
TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

DEEP MIXING TO BETWEEN 825-850 MB IS EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...SO DESPITE LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION...STILL EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...ESP IN VALLEY
AREAS...WHERE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WHERE ADDED DOWNSLOPING
MAY GIVE A FURTHER BOOST IN TEMPS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A BIT
COOLER...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MAINLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS POSSIBLY BARELY REACHING
THE LOWER 40S. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION.
INITIALLY...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS MAY PERSIST AS THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT TIGHT. HOWEVER...AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT TO CALM WIND...COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND A DRY...CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
RATHER COLD LEVELS FOR MID APRIL BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK...WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...WITH EVEN SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME LOWER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. SHOULD WINDS
PERSIST LONGER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WARMER MIN TEMPS WOULD
OCCUR.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION TO OCCUR. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...EXPECT SUN AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REACH 60-65 IN VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER THAN TODAY...BUT WILL INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST...ESP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...PERHAPS REACHING 10-20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...TRICKY CALL ON MIN TEMPS...AS A SOUTH WIND...SOME
PASSING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...AND OVERALL LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MAY KEEP TEMPS MUCH HIGHER THAN SAT NT/SUN AM. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH
GENERALLY LOWER/MID 30S EXPECTED IN VALLEYS...WITH SOME 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...BUT MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT AS A
WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION TOWARD
THE REGION WILL SLOW CONSIDERABLY. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...MOST OF
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
REMAIN N AND W OF THE REGION FOR MOST OF MONDAY...AND ONLY REACHING
N/W AREAS MON NT...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. SO...KEEPING MOST AREAS OUTSIDE
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS DRY FOR MONDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS
INDICATED FOR MON NT FOR FAR N/W AREAS LATE. FURTHER LOW LEVEL
WARMING SHOULD ALLOW MON MAX TEMPS TO REACH 65-70 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
A RATHER MILD MON NT IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH MOST MINS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WET IN MOST AREAS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED TO OUR NORTH
AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR CAPE COD AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THUS MOST OF TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK WET WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AS MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX CROSS THE REGION SO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.
ON FRIDAY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY. SO AFTER A DRY
DAY ON THURSDAY EXPECT MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO END THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL AVERAGE OUT TO BE
SEASONABLE FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGHS
ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70
SOUTHEAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH READINGS FROM
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...ALTHOUGH SOME
UPPER 40S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH SOME
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WHICH ENDS AT 06Z SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WITH NO PCPN EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES. DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY SKIES WILL BECOME FEW060 TO SKC AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...THEN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND GUSTY AT TIMES...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS
ON SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 25 MPH LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...
...LOW RH VALUES OF 25-35 PERCENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP...WITH
SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
TO 5-15 MPH...AND SHOULD DECREASE TO 5 MPH OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL THEN TREND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AND INCREASE TO 5-15 MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
WILL THEN DROP INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER HAS DROPPED TO MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE...AND IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT FALLS COMPLETELY
BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV








000
FXUS61 KBUF 190831
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
431 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COME LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND SETTLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT PROVIDING FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER. 850 MB THERMAL TROF PROPAGATING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST A SMIDGE BELOW NORMAL...WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT
WIND REGIME. MOST OVERNIGHT LOWS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A BEAUTIFUL EASTER SUNDAY...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY
DRIFTS EASTWARD AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. PLENTY OF DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER...WITH JUST A MODEST INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL HELP PUMP 850 MB TEMPS UP TO BETWEEN +3C AND
+7C...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
BULK OF THE AREA SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO ALL
THIS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES...WHERE DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER...AND
POTENTIALLY CONFINED TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE IT WILL THEN
STALL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE LIFTING A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CENTRAL US-CANADA BORDER...AND THE
CONSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD SURFACE WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWER CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER AND POINTS NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY...WITH OUR AREA OTHERWISE
REMAINING DRY ALONG WITH JUST A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RENDER SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR AT LEAST A PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE
AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY
SUNNY. WITH A MILDER OVERALL AIRMASS IN PLACE...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD AVERAGE SOME 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO SATURDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOST AREAS SEEING READINGS BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN WARMER DAY ON MONDAY COMPARED TO
SUNDAY...WHEN 850 MB TEMPS OF +6C TO +9C SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS THOSE LAKESHORE AREAS IMMEDIATELY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...
WHERE A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS
NOTICEABLY COOLER.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE EAST
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE HEADING OFF TO
EASTERN NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE
PROCESS...IT WILL PUSH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE THUS CONTINUED
WITH A SWATH OF HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WHICH PEAK
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT MILD LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OF MILD AIR THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE ENCROACHING
COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THEN FOLLOWING
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW BODILY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER...ENOUGH SO TO SEND HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER
THAN NORMAL READINGS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THAT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL CREST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...BEFORE SLIDING EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY GIVING
WAY TO THE NEXT SURFACE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
SHOWER CHANCES RETURN ON FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...A GENERAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RECOVER BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S AGAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESIDUAL LINGERING CLOUDINESS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS OVERNIGHT
AS GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY WITH VFR/UNLIMITED CIGS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/CHANCE SHOWERS EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND
MINIMAL WAVES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...AR/TMA
MARINE...TMA








000
FXUS61 KBUF 190804
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
404 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COME LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND SETTLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT PROVIDING FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER. 850 MB THERMAL TROF PROPAGATING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST A SMIDGE BELOW NORMAL...WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT
WIND REGIME. MOST OVERNIGHT LOWS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A BEAUTIFUL EASTER SUNDAY...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY
DRIFTS EASTWARD AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. PLENTY OF DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER...WITH JUST A MODEST INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL HELP PUMP 850 MB TEMPS UP TO BETWEEN +3C AND
+7C...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
BULK OF THE AREA SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO ALL
THIS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES...WHERE DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER...AND
POTENTIALLY CONFINED TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE IT WILL THEN
STALL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE LIFTING A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CENTRAL US-CANADA BORDER...AND THE
CONSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD SURFACE WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWER CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER AND POINTS NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY...WITH OUR AREA OTHERWISE
REMAINING DRY ALONG WITH JUST A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RENDER SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR AT LEAST A PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE
AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY
SUNNY. WITH A MILDER OVERALL AIRMASS IN PLACE...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD AVERAGE SOME 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO SATURDAY NIGHT...
WITH MOST AREAS SEEING READINGS BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN WARMER DAY ON MONDAY COMPARED TO
SUNDAY...WHEN 850 MB TEMPS OF +6C TO +9C SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS THOSE LAKESHORE AREAS IMMEDIATELY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...
WHERE A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS
NOTICEABLY COOLER.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE EAST
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE HEADING OFF TO
EASTERN NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE
PROCESS...IT WILL PUSH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE THUS CONTINUED
WITH A SWATH OF HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WHICH PEAK
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT MILD LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OF MILD AIR THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE ENCROACHING
COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THEN FOLLOWING
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE AMPLIFIED...BUT PROGRESSIVE...PATTERN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO
CHANGEABLE WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NOT AVERAGING TOO FAR FROM
NORMAL. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...DRY WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF THE
THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN EVENTS WITH UNDER A
QUARTER OF INCH OF RAIN TUES/TUES NIGHT AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS
PROJECTED FOR FRIDAY.

ON TUESDAY...A DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH WHILE IT
WILL PUSH ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS...BUT AS MENTIONED...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE BASE OF ITS SUPPORTING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THESE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

IN FACT...WHILE A SHARPENING RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP TO IMPROVE THE WEATHER OVER THE WRN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY...AN
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY HOLD ONTO THE LEFTOVER SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN
PROMOTE FAIR DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESIDUAL LINGERING CLOUDINESS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS OVERNIGHT
AS GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY WITH VFR/UNLIMITED CIGS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/CHANCE SHOWERS EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND
MINIMAL WAVES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...AR/TMA
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBGM 190759
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
359 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TODAY...INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...WILL
MODERATE SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS WEAKENING SPRINKLES ACRS OTSEGO CO AS WK SFC FRNT
SLOWLY SLIPS S AND E ACRS C NY AND NE PA. FRNT EXTENDED ROUGHLY
FROM ONEONTA NY TO ABT TOWANDA PA. THIS FRNT WAS TIED TO AN UPR
LVL WAVE THAT WAS MOVG ACRS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND HENCE DEEPEST LIFT
WAS FARTHER EAST WHERE THERE WAS MORE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BY
12Z...FRNT WILL BE S INTO SRN PA WHERE IT WASHES OUT. INITIALLY
THERE WILL BE A BATCH OF BKN POST FRONTAL CLDS THAT WILL ADVECT
SOUTHWARD INTO NRN PA BY 9Z AND THEN DISSIPATE. SO HAVE VARYING
AMNTS OF CLD CVR FOR THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AFTER SUNRISE...STRGR COLD AIR ADVECTION ABV THE SFC LAYER LEADS
TO COLD ENUF TEMPERATURES AS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS TO SUPPORT SCT-
BKN SC/CU FORMING WITH INSOLATION AND THE DIURNAL GROWTH OF THE
BNDRY LAYER FOR MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE
FOR THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA. MESOSCALE MODELS ALL
SHOW A BAND OF VERY HIGH RH AT 925 MB ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
REACHING C NY/NRN PA ARND 12Z. AFTER 15Z THE MODELS MIX OUT THIS
MOISTURE. THE EURO/GFS...OUR LOCAL 4KM WRF...WRFARW AND HRRR EVEN
GO AS FAR AS SPITTING OUT A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP SUGGESTING SOME
SPRINKLES. FOR NOW I JUST INCREASED THE CLD CVR FOR MID TO LATE
MORNING AND THEN MIX IT OUT BY AFTERNOON. WILL REASSESS WHETHER
SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE WARRANTED FOR LATER THIS MORNING WITH NEXT
UPDATE. ITS PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT AND OPTED TO KEEP CURRENT
FORECAST GOING WHICH IS WELL COLLOBARATED WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH OVER
THE CWA SAT NGT EXTENDING NORTH TO QUEBEC. COLDEST NIGHT COMING UP
WITH LOWS MOSTLY 25 TO 32. SOME RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST
SUNDAY BUT SFC WINDS LIGHT. HIGHS STILL IN THE L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LARGER SEPARATION BETWEEN
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT
/ESPECIALLY FIRST HALF BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE
IN/...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED WARMER TREND OF GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY...AFTER 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM AGREE NOW ON WAITING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TO SWEEP COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION.
THE RAIN ITSELF IS A SOLID BET...IT IS JUST A MATTER OF WHICH TIME
OF DAY WILL BE THE MAIN RAINFALL. WENT AHEAD WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD
OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...AND AS THE TIME NEARS WE WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER HEM IN WHICH SPECIFIC HOURS WILL BE INVOLVED. FRONT WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH...TO WHICH
WE ANTICIPATE LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT OTHER THAN DAMPENING PLANS
FOR GENERAL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THERMAL PROFILES ALSO TOO STABLE
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...SO NO LIGHTNING EXPECTED.

RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT AND THEN EVENTUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK TO UPPER 50S-MID 60S FOR HIGHS...FOLLOWED
BY UPPER 30S-LOW 40S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...
BEHIND SURFACE FRONT FROM TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DROPS ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. GFS-ECMWF RUNS BOTH KEEP
IT AS AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SWINGS THROUGH...BEFORE DIFFERING ON ITS
EVOLUTION WELL OFFSHORE. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES GET SUB-540
DECAMETERS FOR A TIME...CONTRIBUTING TO THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. STILL A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL WITH THAT UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH.

DRY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CHARGE AT SURFACE...AND RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ALSO
MODERATING...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY...BUT NEXT WAVE MAY ALSO BE
APPROACHING BY THEN WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF COURSE WILL BE SORTED OUT BETTER IN COMING
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND
EXTENDED FROM ABOUT ONEONTA NY TO TOWANDA PA IN THE WFO BGM
FORECAST AREA. THERE WAS POST FRONTAL BKN-OVC CLOUDS AND JUST A
FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS OTSEGO CO. THESE INSIGNIFICANT
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHRA WILL NOT AFFECT ANY TAF SITE ERLY THIS
MORNING.

THE BKN-OVC POST FRONTL CLOUDS WAS MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR...ESPECIALLY AT KSYR...KRME...KITH AND KBGM. AS THE FRONT
WORKS FARTHER SOUTH LL DRYING WILL OCCUR AND SHUD SCATTER OUT THIS
MOISTURE SO EXPECT JUST SCT CLDS BY ARND 8-10Z.

AFTER SUNRISE...COLDER AIR WILL BLOW IN ABV THE SFC LAYER WHICH
WILL BE DECOUPLED AND HENCE THE SFC DRYING WILL WEAKEN. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A SCT-BKN CU/SC LAYER TO DEVELOP WITH INSOLATION FROM MID
TO LATE MORNING. I EXPECT MAINLY VFR 3500 TO 5000 FEET CLD BASES.
AS THIS OCCURS...STRGR WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SFC AND THIS CLOUD LAYER SHUD MIX OUT TO MAINLY CLR SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. CLR SKIES WILL REMAIN AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM SW TO NW AFTER FROPA AT KAVP AROUND 07Z OR
SO. REST OF TAF SITES WILL HAVE W-NW WINDS MAINLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE A DECENT LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KICK WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE WINDS VEER FROM THE NW TO THE N BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
2 PM FRI UPDATE...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN NY. NONE IN NE PA.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...RH FALLING INTO THE 30S BUT WINDS ONLY 5 TO 15
MPH. SATURDAY INCREASING WINDS AND SUNSHINE. ERN AREAS COULD HAVE
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. RH FALLING TO 25 TO 40 PERCENT. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS AND SEE IF THE 10 HOUR FUELS DRY ENOUGH.

FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN/TAC
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DJN
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KBTV 190752
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 134 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE...MAINLY JUST TO KEEP FORECAST
CURRENT. LATEST RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHERN
VERMONT. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK COLD FRONT AND RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION ON THE LIGHT SIDE...A
DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. MIN TEMPS STILL LOOK OK
HOWEVER...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S EARLY SATURDAY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TO TRACK
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING
AT CURRENT SURFACE OBS...WE`VE GOT SOME PRETTY DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE WITH RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD...AND RISING TO THE 30S CLOSER TO THE FRONT
IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH SUCH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
AND WEAKENING RETURNS ON UPSTREAM RADAR...NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE A
WHOLE LOT OF QPF WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAYBE A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NORTHERN DACKS THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE
FRONT WASHES OUT EASTWARD. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND AS THE WINDS TURN WEST/NORTHWEST WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE NW SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN GREENS...BUT LIKELY ONLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH AT BEST.
LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 311 PM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY
MID- DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO
DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH
50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY. ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...BUT AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPS IN
THE 30S TO 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE TUESDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS TO START ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO
START THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALLOWING FOR A RELATIVELY
MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. SHOULDN`T BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW
REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SHOWERS IS LIKELY FROM
TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE SECONDARY LOW
WILL DETERMINE LENGTH AND AMOUNT OF RAIN. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE
60S ON TUESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT POST-FRONT FALLING BACK
INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S. SOME SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
TAIL-END OF PRECIP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS
COMBINED WITH MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND
OROGRAPHIC RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. AS A RESULT WE`LL
ALSO BE LOOKING AT A BELOW NORMAL DAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...45-55F FOR HIGHS. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND A NICE DAY/COOL
NIGHTS. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY FROM 50-60F WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH NIGHTS. BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SO WE`LL BE TRENDING ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE
OTTAWA VALLEY BRINGING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
INTERVALS OF MVFR WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PERIOD OF LOWER
CLOUDS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE IN UPSLOPE FLOW. WINDS INITIALLY
S-SE ACROSS VT AND S-SW ACROSS NY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK. GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...GENERALLY 320/12G22KT. GUSTY WINDS WILL ABATE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KOKX 190733
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
333 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TODAY...AND THEN SETTLES OVER THE GULF
OF MAINE FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TOWARDS...THEN OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BUILD EAST TODAY. WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
RIDGING AT THE SFC...WILL EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH WITH 20-25 MPH GUSTS. SKIES CLEAR OUT LATER THIS
MORNING...GIVING TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A BLEND OF MET/MAV
MOS GUIDANCE WAS USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET CONDS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK AS HIGH PRES
MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY...AND THEN SETTLES OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT
IN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS...ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AS WELL AS
THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND. ELSEWHERE...LOWS DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE.

AS THE HIGH TRACKS EAST...WINDS SHIFT TO A COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY IN MOST
SPOTS. HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST...AND
IN THE LOW 60S INLAND. SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR
COASTAL AREAS ON MONDAY...BUT THE INTERIOR WILL BE ABLE TO WARM
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOWS DROP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO PHASING BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY...TO THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY...AS IT BEGINS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOLID CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS THAT
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY...THEN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN
FROM NW TO SE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS THEN WILL
TAPER OF FROM NW TO SE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN CONSENSUS...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT TUESDAY NIGHT. DO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE (CHANCE FAR NE ZONES) OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN RESPONSE TO CORE OF THE MID-UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF THE RIDGE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SPED UP A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF AND REMAINDER OF
THE 00Z GUIDANCE...AND WOULD NO BRING SOME RAIN IN ON
FRIDAY...WHILE ALL THE LATTER GUIDANCE HAS FRIDAY DRY. IF THE
TRENDS IN THE ECMWF CONTINUE...THEN POPS WOULD HAVE TO BE ADDED TO
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD BE
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT AREAS FROM NYC ON W COULD REACH OR JUST GO PAST
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY...RAISE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY...THEN SHOULD
BE ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. NOTE...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT IT COULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST. FOR
FRIDAY...IF THE 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THEN HIGHS COULD BE AT
LEAST 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA INTO TONIGHT.

MOST LIKELY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION -
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE - WOULD BE FOR MVFR-IFR CEILINGS TO
MOVE INTO KJFK AND MAYBE KISP.

WINDS VEER TO THE NW 5-10KT BY 11-12Z. APPEARS SHOULD GUST TO
AROUND 15-20KT FROM LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS ABATE
BY EARLY EVENING AS WINDS VEER TO THE N THEN NNE-NE AND SPEEDS FALL
BELOW 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHRA LIKELY...WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE. NW-N WINDS G202-5KT POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR.
NW-N WIND G 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OCEAN WATERS UNTIL 6
AM THIS MORNING AS SEAS CONTINUE TO AVERAGE RIGHT AROUND 5
FT...BUT ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING.

OTHERWISE...CONDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS
WEEKEND. OCNL WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUND AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.

TRANQUIL CONDS THEN EXPECTED INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY WITH A RELATIVELY
RELAXED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO
SCA LEVELS ON ALL WATERS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY DAY TODAY WITH GUSTY N-NW FLOW WILL RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES
BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH AT TIMES.
THIS WILL ENHANCE FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE
NEW WEEK.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF THIS APPEARS LOWER
THAN IT DID YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS - IF
ANY.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MPS







000
FXUS61 KBGM 190621
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
221 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
TONIGHT TO CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN
SATURDAY, LASTING INTO MONDAY. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO THE
60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR SHOWS WEAKENING SPRINKLES ACRS OTSEGO CO AS WK SFC FRNT
SLOWLY SLIPS S AND E ACRS C NY AND NE PA. FRNT EXTENDED ROUGHLY
FROM ONEONTA NY TO ABT TOWANDA PA. THIS FRNT WAS TIED TO AN UPR
LVL WAVE THAT WAS MOVG ACRS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND HENCE DEEPEST LIFT
WAS FARTHER EAST WHERE THERE WAS MORE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BY
12Z...FRNT WILL BE S INTO SRN PA WHERE IT WASHES OUT. INITIALLY
THERE WILL BE A BATCH OF BKN POST FRONTAL CLDS THAT WILL ADVECT
SOUTHWARD INTO NRN PA BY 9Z AND THEN DISSIPATE. SO HAVE VARYING
AMNTS OF CLD CVR FOR THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AFTER SUNRISE...STRGR COLD AIR ADVECTION ABV THE SFC LAYER LEADS
TO COLD ENUF TEMPERATURES AS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS TO SUPPORT SCT-
BKN SC/CU FORMING WITH INSOLATION AND THE DIURNAL GROWTH OF THE
BNDRY LAYER FOR MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE
FOR THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA. MESOSCALE MODELS ALL
SHOW A BAND OF VERY HIGH RH AT 925 MB ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
REACHING C NY/NRN PA ARND 12Z. AFTER 15Z THE MODELS MIX OUT THIS
MOISTURE. THE EURO/GFS...OUR LOCAL 4KM WRF...WRFARW AND HRRR EVEN
GO AS FAR AS SPITTING OUT A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP SUGGESTING SOME
SPRINKLES. FOR NOW I JUST INCREASED THE CLD CVR FOR MID TO LATE
MORNING AND THEN MIX IT OUT BY AFTERNOON. WILL REASSESS WHETHER
SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE WARRANTED FOR LATER THIS MORNING WITH NEXT
UPDATE. ITS PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT AND OPTED TO KEEP CURRENT
FORECAST GOING WHICH IS WELL COLLOBARATED WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH OVER THE CWA SAT NGT EXTENDING NORTH TO
QUEBEC. COLDEST NIGHT COMING UP WITH LOWS MOSTLY 25 TO 32. SOME
RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY BUT SFC WINDS LIGHT.
HIGHS STILL IN THE L60S.

INITIAL SFC LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE CWA LAYING DOWN A FRONT
IN SE CANADA. PRECIP WILL BE STAY IN CANADA WITH A UPPER LEVEL
ZONAL FLOW.

FOR RAIN WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE DIGS A TROF INTO THE UPPER LAKES. LOWERED POPS TO NOTHING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ONLY SCHC POPS FAR NW MON AFTN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY FOR MON NGT AND HV PULLED POPS
DOWN TO SLGT CHC CWA-WIDE WITH LKLY POPS FOR TUE AS FNT COMES
THRU. LINGERING PCPN EXPECTED TUE NGT AS UL TROF SWINGS THRU. 12Z
GFS INDICATES H5 LOW DVLPNG OVR THE COAST WHILE 00Z EURO KEEPS IT
AS AN OPEN WV. FOR THE TIME BEING HV GONE WITH CHC SHOWERS ON WED
FOR ERN SXNS.

1020MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FM THE WEST ON THUR LEADING TO DRY
WX THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD. HIGH TEMPS FOLLOWING FROPA ON WED
WL DROP TO BLO SEASONAL NORMS FOR A DAY AND THEN REBOUND UNDER
S/WV RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND
EXTENDED FROM ABOUT ONEONTA NY TO TOWANDA PA IN THE WFO BGM
FORECAST AREA. THERE WAS POST FRONTAL BKN-OVC CLOUDS AND JUST A
FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS OTSEGO CO. THESE INSIGNIFICANT
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHRA WILL NOT AFFECT ANY TAF SITE ERLY THIS
MORNING.

THE BKN-OVC POST FRONTL CLOUDS WAS MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR...ESPECIALLY AT KSYR...KRME...KITH AND KBGM. AS THE FRONT
WORKS FARTHER SOUTH LL DRYING WILL OCCUR AND SHUD SCATTER OUT THIS
MOISTURE SO EXPECT JUST SCT CLDS BY ARND 8-10Z.

AFTER SUNRISE...COLDER AIR WILL BLOW IN ABV THE SFC LAYER WHICH
WILL BE DECOUPLED AND HENCE THE SFC DRYING WILL WEAKEN. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A SCT-BKN CU/SC LAYER TO DEVELOP WITH INSOLATION FROM MID
TO LATE MORNING. I EXPECT MAINLY VFR 3500 TO 5000 FEET CLD BASES.
AS THIS OCCURS...STRGR WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SFC AND THIS CLOUD LAYER SHUD MIX OUT TO MAINLY CLR SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. CLR SKIES WILL REMAIN AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM SW TO NW AFTER FROPA AT KAVP AROUND 07Z OR
SO. REST OF TAF SITES WILL HAVE W-NW WINDS MAINLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE A DECENT LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KICK WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE WINDS VEER FROM THE NW TO THE N BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
2 PM FRI UPDATE...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN NY. NONE IN NE PA.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...RH FALLING INTO THE 30S BUT WINDS ONLY 5 TO 15
MPH. SATURDAY INCREASING WINDS AND SUNSHINE. ERN AREAS COULD HAVE
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. RH FALLING TO 25 TO 40 PERCENT. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS AND SEE IF THE 10 HOUR FUELS DRY ENOUGH.

FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DJN
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KBUF 190537
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
137 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COME LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 03Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE LINE OF -SHRA
CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE NORTH COUNTRY W/THE SFC FRONT.
OTHERWISE...ALL OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA ARE SEEING PRIMARILY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...PATCHY FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
NORTH OF I-90 AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN SECTIONS WITH THE CLOUD COVER LINGERING OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY HOLDING TONIGHT TEMPS CLOSE TO LAST NIGHT`S LOW 30S.
SATURDAY HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT OVER THE COUNTRY AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD
WILL AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL
MAKE ITS WAY ASHORE AND EVENTUALLY HELP TO GENERATE OUR NEXT BIG
WEATHER MAKER NEXT WEEK. MORE ON THAT SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW. UP THROUGH THAT TIME THOUGH...THERE WILL BE NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO DEAL WITH ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEG F ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL EXTEND ALL
THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST...PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH GENERALLY
STARLIT SKIES. LIGHT WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE CLEAR SKIES TO
ALLOW FOR FAIRLY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO OUR MINS WILL
RANGE FROM WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF FREEZING OVER THE WRN COUNTIES
TO THE MID 20S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

THE HEART OF THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT TO NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BEAUTIFUL EASTER SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF
BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL ADD SEVERAL DEGREES TO OUR H85 TEMPS...WHICH
IN TURN WILL SUPPORT A WARMER AFTERNOON (COMPARED TO SAT) AS MOST OF
WRN NEW YORK WILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS OF 65 TO 70. IT WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND CERTAINLY WITHIN A COUPLE
MILES OF THE LAKES WHERE WELL DEVELOPED LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
COULD CAP AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 50S.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
WILL CRUISE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE CORRESPONDING LOWERING HGTS AND DIVERGENT FLOW OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL HELP TO CONSOLIDATE A RELATIVELY BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. SINCE ANY REAL
BAROCLINICITY WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH...THIS WILL PROMOTE AN
EVEN NICER DAY FOR MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF
WRN NEW YORK WITH LOW-MID 60S EAST OF LK ONTARIO (AGAIN...NOTABLY
COOLER ALONG THE LAKE SHORES).

CONDITIONS WILL START TO DETERIORATE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE CONSOLIDATING SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND
DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO OUR DOORSTEP. SOME SHOWERS COULD
BREAK OUT IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE AMPLIFIED...BUT PROGRESSIVE...PATTERN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO
CHANGEABLE WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NOT AVERAGING TOO FAR FROM
NORMAL. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...DRY WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF THE
THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN EVENTS WITH UNDER A
QUARTER OF INCH OF RAIN TUES/TUES NIGHT AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS
PROJECTED FOR FRIDAY.

ON TUESDAY...A DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH WHILE IT
WILL PUSH ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS...BUT AS MENTIONED...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE BASE OF ITS SUPPORTING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THESE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

IN FACT...WHILE A SHARPENING RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP TO IMPROVE THE WEATHER OVER THE WRN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY...AN
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY HOLD ONTO THE LEFTOVER SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN
PROMOTE FAIR DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESIDUAL LINGERING CLOUDINESS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS OVERNIGHT
AS GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY WITH VFR/UNLIMITED CIGS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/CHANCE SHOWERS EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND
MINIMAL WAVES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...AR/TMA
MARINE...AR





000
FXUS61 KBTV 190535
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 134 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE...MAINLY JUST TO KEEP FORECAST
CURRENT. LATEST RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHERN
VERMONT. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK COLD FRONT AND RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION ON THE LIGHT SIDE...A
DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. MIN TEMPS STILL LOOK OK
HOWEVER...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S EARLY SATURDAY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TO TRACK
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING
AT CURRENT SURFACE OBS...WE`VE GOT SOME PRETTY DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE WITH RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD...AND RISING TO THE 30S CLOSER TO THE FRONT
IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH SUCH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
AND WEAKENING RETURNS ON UPSTREAM RADAR...NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE A
WHOLE LOT OF QPF WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAYBE A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NORTHERN DACKS THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE
FRONT WASHES OUT EASTWARD. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND AS THE WINDS TURN WEST/NORTHWEST WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE NW SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN GREENS...BUT LIKELY ONLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH AT BEST.
LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY
MID- DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO
DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH
50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY. ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...BUT AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPS IN
THE 30S TO 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE ECMWF MODEL ON FRIDAY BRINGS
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW GIVEN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE
OTTAWA VALLEY BRINGING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
INTERVALS OF MVFR WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PERIOD OF LOWER
CLOUDS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE IN UPSLOPE FLOW. WINDS INITIALLY
S-SE ACROSS VT AND S-SW ACROSS NY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK. GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...GENERALLY 320/12G22KT. GUSTY WINDS WILL ABATE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KOKX 190529
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
129 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY HIGH/MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NEAR BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING W/NW AND INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE LOWER
POTENTIAL OF TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUTLYING PARTS OF THE REGION FOR PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FROST.

CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARDS COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...RIDGING TREND IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE AND KEEP A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO QUEBEC WITH WINDS BEING OUT OF THE
NORTH. THE SETUP IS THERE FOR A MUCH WARMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MARINE INFLUENCE TO A MINIMUM AND
DOWNSLOPE WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES EVEN AT THE COAST. MAX
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF 1/2 MAV AND 1/2 GMOS AND INCREASED BY
TWO...PREFERRING THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 5-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT WITH A CUTOFF LOW MOVING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. WHILE THE SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL BE STRONG
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS...AN INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE LOWER DEWPOINTS. WHILE THE LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...THE RH LEVELS WILL BE LOWER...LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY WITH THIS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AT THE COAST. THERE WILL BE
MORE MARINE INFLUENCE. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF ECE AND GMOS AND WILL
BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES. STILL KEEPING CLOUDS LOWER WITH
HIGH PRESSURE NOT TOO FAR AWAY...THEREBY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL AID IN LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. MONDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURE WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WHICH IS NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. 12Z GFS KEEPS THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY
THEREFORE KEPT CONDITIONS DRY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA INTO TONIGHT.

MOST LIKELY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION -
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE - WOULD BE FOR MVFR-IFR CEILINGS TO
MOVE INTO KJFK AND MAYBE KISP.

WINDS VEER TO THE NW 5-10KT BY 11-12Z. APPEARS SHOULD GUST TO
AROUND 15-20KT FROM LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS ABATE
BY EARLY EVENING AS WINDS VEER TO THE N THEN NNE-NE AND SPEEDS FALL
BELOW 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHRA LIKELY...WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE. NW-N WINDS G202-5KT POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR.
NW-N WIND G 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10Z SATURDAY AS LINGERING EASTERLY
SWELL KEEPS HIGHER SEAS WITHIN THE FORECAST COASTAL OCEAN ZONES.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE GAINING CONTROL. ONCE THE SEAS ON THE OCEAN SUBSIDE
EARLY SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE AS WELL THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO MOSTLY 20 KT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SCA EVENT FOR OCEAN SEAS ON SUNDAY WITH THE MORE
EASTERLY FLOW.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SEAS ACROSS OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SCA
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY DAY SATURDAY WITH GUSTY N-NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND THEREFORE LOWER RH VALUES. MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 18 AND 30 PERCENT MOSTLY. WIND GUSTS WILL BE UP TO 20-25
MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE FIRE SPREAD
POTENTIAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAINFALL EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS - IF ANY.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/FIG
NEAR TERM...NV/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JM/FIG
FIRE WEATHER...JM
HYDROLOGY...JM/FIG







000
FXUS61 KALY 190528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW TO
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...THE LINE OF SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...BUT IS
STILL PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. WE
EXPECT SOME OF THESE TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST OVER THE NEXT 1-3
HOURS...BUT AGAIN...WITH MUCH LESS OVERALL COVERAGE THAN ABOUT 2
HOURS AGO. WILL THEREFORE KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

TRICKY TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...AS SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EARLIER HAVE ALLOWED SOME TEMPS TO DROP TO
NEAR FREEZING IN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SARATOGA REGION...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...WHILE RISING IN OTHER AREAS AS CLOUDS
INCREASE AGAIN. OVERALL...EXPECT A GENERAL UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS
IN THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CLOUDS PASS BY...AND
SOME WIND PICKS UP. TEMPS ARE STILL LIKELY TO DROP A FEW MORE
DEGREES FURTHER E ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT...BEFORE
RISING IN THESE AREAS AS WELL IN ABOUT 2 OR MORE HOURS AS THE
CLOUDS AND SOME WIND ALSO DEVELOP.

ELSEWHERE...TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO SETTLE BACK AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP
INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW QUICKLY BECOMING ANTI-CYCLONIC. SO JUST
AN ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASING SUNSHINE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRENGTHENING AND
MIXING DEPTHS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. THIS WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUNSHINE DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER NEW ENGLAND. STILL LOOKING AT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NORMAL AFTER A COOL START.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY MAKING IT FEEL MORE PLEASANT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE
SUNDAY...AND KEEPS A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SO MORE DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT
MAY START TO INCREASE.

MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS...AS A W-SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY SET UP JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP REMAINING
CLOSER TO THE US/CANADA BORDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THINGS MOISTEN UP AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...TRIGGERING RAIN SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.  BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOWERS LINGER TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ENOUGH COLD AIR FILTERING IN COULD HELP TO ADD SOME SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE MIX OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

LOW CHC POPS EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR SQUEEZES MOISTURE
OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT...AND
VERY CLEAR AIR.  ON TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND
70 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

THEN FOLLOWS ABOUT A 36-HOUR PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AS A CENTRAL
CANADA TO OHIO VALLEY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES EASTWARD...
PASSING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...BUT WITH HIGHS BOUNCING BACK ONLY A FEW
DEGREES.  ANOTHER LITTLE JUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ROUND OUT
THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM MOVES SOME...BUT NOT A
LOT OF...CLOUDS AND RAIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S
RANGE.  THE ADIRONDACKS...IN PARTICULAR...WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES COLDER
STILL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE TREND BEGINS TO TURN AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WHICH ENDS AT 06Z SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WITH NO PCPN EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES. DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY SKIES WILL BECOME FEW060 TO SKC AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...THEN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND GUSTY AT TIMES...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS
ON SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST OVER 25 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

     RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE RH WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80 AND 95 PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25 TO 35 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RH
WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 70 AND 95 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH...SHIFTING
TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER CONTINUES TO BE JUST OVER MAJOR FLOOD
STAGE...ALTHOUGH THE LEVELS WILL BE GRADUALLY RECEDING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING...AND BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT FALLS COMPLETELY
BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 190527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1033 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE...MAINLY JUST TO KEEP FORECAST
CURRENT. LATEST RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHERN
VERMONT. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK COLD FRONT AND RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION ON THE LIGHT SIDE...A
DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. MIN TEMPS STILL LOOK OK
HOWEVER...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S EARLY SATURDAY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TO TRACK
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING
AT CURRENT SURFACE OBS...WE`VE GOT SOME PRETTY DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE WITH RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD...AND RISING TO THE 30S CLOSER TO THE FRONT
IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH SUCH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
AND WEAKENING RETURNS ON UPSTREAM RADAR...NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE A
WHOLE LOT OF QPF WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAYBE A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NORTHERN DACKS THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE
FRONT WASHES OUT EASTWARD. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND AS THE WINDS TURN WEST/NORTHWEST WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE NW SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN GREENS...BUT LIKELY ONLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH AT BEST.
LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY
MID- DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO
DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH
50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY. ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...BUT AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPS IN
THE 30S TO 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE ECMWF MODEL ON FRIDAY BRINGS
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW GIVEN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE
OTTAWA VALLEY BRINGING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
INTERVALS OF MVFR WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PERIOD OF LOWER
CLOUDS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE IN UPSLOPE FLOW. WINDS INITIALLY
S-SE ACROSS VT AND S-SW ACROSS NY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK. GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...GENERALLY 320/12G22KT. GUSTY WINDS WILL ABATE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBUF 190329
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1129 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COME LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 03Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE LINE OF -SHRA
CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE NORTH COUNTRY W/THE SFC FRONT.
OTHERWISE...ALL OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA ARE SEEING PRIMARILY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...PATCHY FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
NORTH OF I-90 AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN SECTIONS WITH THE CLOUD COVER LINGERING OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY HOLDING TONIGHT TEMPS CLOSE TO LAST NIGHT`S LOW 30S.
SATURDAY HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT OVER THE COUNTRY AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD
WILL AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL
MAKE ITS WAY ASHORE AND EVENTUALLY HELP TO GENERATE OUR NEXT BIG
WEATHER MAKER NEXT WEEK. MORE ON THAT SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW. UP THROUGH THAT TIME THOUGH...THERE WILL BE NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO DEAL WITH ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEG F ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL EXTEND ALL
THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST...PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH GENERALLY
STARLIT SKIES. LIGHT WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE CLEAR SKIES TO
ALLOW FOR FAIRLY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO OUR MINS WILL
RANGE FROM WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF FREEZING OVER THE WRN COUNTIES
TO THE MID 20S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

THE HEART OF THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT TO NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BEAUTIFUL EASTER SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF
BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL ADD SEVERAL DEGREES TO OUR H85 TEMPS...WHICH
IN TURN WILL SUPPORT A WARMER AFTERNOON (COMPARED TO SAT) AS MOST OF
WRN NEW YORK WILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS OF 65 TO 70. IT WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND CERTAINLY WITHIN A COUPLE
MILES OF THE LAKES WHERE WELL DEVELOPED LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
COULD CAP AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 50S.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
WILL CRUISE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE CORRESPONDING LOWERING HGTS AND DIVERGENT FLOW OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL HELP TO CONSOLIDATE A RELATIVELY BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. SINCE ANY REAL
BAROCLINICITY WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH...THIS WILL PROMOTE AN
EVEN NICER DAY FOR MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF
WRN NEW YORK WITH LOW-MID 60S EAST OF LK ONTARIO (AGAIN...NOTABLY
COOLER ALONG THE LAKE SHORES).

CONDITIONS WILL START TO DETERIORATE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE CONSOLIDATING SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND
DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO OUR DOORSTEP. SOME SHOWERS COULD
BREAK OUT IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE AMPLIFIED...BUT PROGRESSIVE...PATTERN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO
CHANGEABLE WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NOT AVERAGING TOO FAR FROM
NORMAL. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...DRY WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF THE
THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN EVENTS WITH UNDER A
QUARTER OF INCH OF RAIN TUES/TUES NIGHT AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS
PROJECTED FOR FRIDAY.

ON TUESDAY...A DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH WHILE IT
WILL PUSH ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS...BUT AS MENTIONED...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE BASE OF ITS SUPPORTING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THESE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

IN FACT...WHILE A SHARPENING RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP TO IMPROVE THE WEATHER OVER THE WRN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY...AN
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY HOLD ONTO THE LEFTOVER SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN
PROMOTE FAIR DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 03Z...THE COLD FRONT AND IT`S -SHRA CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT RESIDUAL LINGERING LOW CLOUDINESS WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS AS GRADUAL CLEARING TAKE PLACE
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
SATURDAY WITH VFR/UNLIMITED CIGS BY SAT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/CHANCE SHOWERS EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND
MINIMAL WAVES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR








000
FXUS61 KBTV 190249
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1049 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1033 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE...MAINLY JUST TO KEEP FORECAST
CURRENT. LATEST RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHERN
VERMONT. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK COLD FRONT AND RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION ON THE LIGHT SIDE...A
DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. MIN TEMPS STILL LOOK OK
HOWEVER...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S EARLY SATURDAY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TO TRACK
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING
AT CURRENT SURFACE OBS...WE`VE GOT SOME PRETTY DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE WITH RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD...AND RISING TO THE 30S CLOSER TO THE FRONT
IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH SUCH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
AND WEAKENING RETURNS ON UPSTREAM RADAR...NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE A
WHOLE LOT OF QPF WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAYBE A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NORTHERN DACKS THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE
FRONT WASHES OUT EASTWARD. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND AS THE WINDS TURN WEST/NORTHWEST WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE NW SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN GREENS...BUT LIKELY ONLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH AT BEST.
LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY
MID- DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO
DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH
50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY. ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...BUT AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPS IN
THE 30S TO 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE ECMWF MODEL ON FRIDAY BRINGS
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW GIVEN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE
OTTAWA VALLEY BRINGING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NRN NY THIS
EVENING AND ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT OVERNIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT KSLK BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS BEFORE DAYBREAK. OVERALL...LOOKING AT
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR WITH THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIR TRRN MAY ALSO BE OBSCD BETWEEN 04-09Z. A WIND
SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS INITIALLY S-SE ACROSS VT
AND S-SW ACROSS NY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK FOLLOWING
FROPA. GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...GENERALLY 320/12G24KT.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY TO 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...BANACOS







000
FXUS61 KOKX 190242
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1042 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MAINLY HIGH/MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NEAR BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING W/NW AND INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK TROUGH. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE LOWER
POTENTIAL OF TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUTLYING PARTS OF THE REGION FOR PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FROST.

CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARDS COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...RIDGING TREND IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE AND KEEP A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO QUEBEC WITH WINDS BEING OUT OF THE
NORTH. THE SETUP IS THERE FOR A MUCH WARMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MARINE INFLUENCE TO A MINIMUM AND
DOWNSLOPE WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES EVEN AT THE COAST. MAX
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF 1/2 MAV AND 1/2 GMOS AND INCREASED BY
TWO...PREFERRING THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 5-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT WITH A CUTOFF LOW MOVING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. WHILE THE SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL BE STRONG
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS...AN INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE LOWER DEWPOINTS. WHILE THE LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...THE RH LEVELS WILL BE LOWER...LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY WITH THIS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AT THE COAST. THERE WILL BE
MORE MARINE INFLUENCE. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF ECE AND GMOS AND WILL
BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES. STILL KEEPING CLOUDS LOWER WITH
HIGH PRESSURE NOT TOO FAR AWAY...THEREBY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL AID IN LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. MONDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURE WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WHICH IS NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. 12Z GFS KEEPS THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY
THEREFORE KEPT CONDITIONS DRY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING TONIGHT. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING OF COLD FROPA RANGES FROM 08Z-13Z W
TO E. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING GUSTY ON SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. END TIME OF GUSTS COULD BE A FEW HOURS OFF SAT EVE.

LOW PROBABILITY OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...BUT WOULD EXPECT EASTERN
TERMINALS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHC DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. IT WON`T BE VISIBLE ON IR SAT NOW THAT THE SUN
HAS SET WITH THE VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS OHD...SO OBS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NIGHT-TUE AFTN...VFR.
.TUE LATE AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS...COLD
FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10Z SATURDAY AS LINGERING EASTERLY
SWELL KEEPS HIGHER SEAS WITHIN THE FORECAST COASTAL OCEAN ZONES.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE GAINING CONTROL. ONCE THE SEAS ON THE OCEAN SUBSIDE
EARLY SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE AS WELL THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO MOSTLY 20 KT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SCA EVENT FOR OCEAN SEAS ON SUNDAY WITH THE MORE
EASTERLY FLOW.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SEAS ACROSS OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SCA
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY DAY SATURDAY WITH GUSTY N-NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND THEREFORE LOWER RH VALUES. MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 18 AND 30 PERCENT MOSTLY. WIND GUSTS WILL BE UP TO 20-25
MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE FIRE SPREAD
POTENTIAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAINFALL EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS - IF ANY.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...
MARINE...FIG/JM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...FIG/JM









000
FXUS61 KBGM 190239
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1039 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
TONIGHT TO CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN
SATURDAY, LASTING INTO MONDAY. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO THE
60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...WEAK SFC COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM THE SYR AREA
ACROSS ITH INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. RADAR/SFC OBS STILL
INDICATE JUST SOME SPRINKLES/BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER ALONG FEATURE
WITH BETTER RETURNS OVER THE NRN CWA. CURRENT POPS OF SLIGHT
CHC/CHC LOOKS REASONABLE ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH ACTIVITY
CONTINUING TO SHIFT EAST OF I81 AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN ENDING SHORTLY
AFTER.

640 PM UPDATE...SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO ACROSS ROC TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. LOCAL RADARS SHOW
WEAK RETURNS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN THE LAKE PLAIN BUT DUE TO
20-30 DEGREES DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ONLY SPRINKLES ARE BEING
REPORTED AT THE SFC. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH CHC/SLIGHT
CHC POPS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE NRN FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH LATE EVENING.

2 PM UPDATE...

A WEAK FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO WRN NY ATTM. A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND IT IN SE ONTARIO. WITH THE DRY AIR STILL AT
THE SURFACE EXPECTING VERY LITTLE TO FALL THIS EVE. PRECIP SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE FINGER LAKES AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. MOSTLY SCHC POPS NRN TIER OF
NE PA NORTH.

BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH TO SET
OFF THE LAKE EFFECT WITH 850MB TEMPS AT -4C. WITH NW FLOW SHOULD
ONLY KEEP THE CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING.

SAT AFTN WAA ALOFT KICKS IN AND SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR. AT
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DROPPING THE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH OVER THE CWA SAT NGT EXTENDING NORTH TO
QUEBEC. COLDEST NIGHT COMING UP WITH LOWS MOSTLY 25 TO 32. SOME
RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY BUT SFC WINDS LIGHT.
HIGHS STILL IN THE L60S.

INITIAL SFC LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE CWA LAYING DOWN A FRONT
IN SE CANADA. PRECIP WILL BE STAY IN CANADA WITH A UPPER LEVEL
ZONAL FLOW.

FOR RAIN WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE DIGS A TROF INTO THE UPPER LAKES. LOWERED POPS TO NOTHING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ONLY SCHC POPS FAR NW MON AFTN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY FOR MON NGT AND HV PULLED POPS
DOWN TO SLGT CHC CWA-WIDE WITH LKLY POPS FOR TUE AS FNT COMES
THRU. LINGERING PCPN EXPECTED TUE NGT AS UL TROF SWINGS THRU. 12Z
GFS INDICATES H5 LOW DVLPNG OVR THE COAST WHILE 00Z EURO KEEPS IT
AS AN OPEN WV. FOR THE TIME BEING HV GONE WITH CHC SHOWERS ON WED
FOR ERN SXNS.

1020MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FM THE WEST ON THUR LEADING TO DRY
WX THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD. HIGH TEMPS FOLLOWING FROPA ON WED
WL DROP TO BLO SEASONAL NORMS FOR A DAY AND THEN REBOUND UNDER
S/WV RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WINDS NOW BEGINNING TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES WORKING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING WEAK RETURNS ACROSS WESTERN NY HOWEVER
LITTLE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS REACHING THE GROUND BASED ON VERY DRY
LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS. BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS...EXPECT LITTLE
MORE THAN A BKN-OVC MID-LEVEL DECK AS FRONT ROLES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SOME CLEARING SHORTLY AFTER PASSAGE. AS WINDS CONTINUE
TO VEER...MODELS DO SHOW INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW OFF ALOFT. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT
HOWEVER...AM INCLINED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MVFR MENTION BASED ON THE
ABRUPT CLEARING TREND NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST IF NEEDED.

WINDS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO THE NORTH BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
2 PM FRI UPDATE...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN NY. NONE IN NE PA.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...RH FALLING INTO THE 30S BUT WINDS ONLY 5 TO 15
MPH. SATURDAY INCREASING WINDS AND SUNSHINE. ERN AREAS COULD HAVE
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. RH FALLING TO 25 TO 40 PERCENT. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS AND SEE IF THE 10 HOUR FUELS DRY ENOUGH.

FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...CMG
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KALY 190218
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1018 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW TO
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT...RADAR CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A LINE OF BROKEN
SHOWERS ABOUT 50 MILES EAST FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS APPROACHING THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES PER THE H2O VAPOR LOOP. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
FROM THE 00Z RAP/HRRR AND THE NEW ARRIVAL OF THE 00Z NAM CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THE BEST LIFT WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
FOR THIS UPDATE...DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND TWEAKED POPS/WX PER
OBSERVATIONS AND AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST TRENDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MIXED OVER
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT WITH MEAGER QPF SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 30S...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW QUICKLY BECOMING ANTI-CYCLONIC. SO JUST
AN ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASING SUNSHINE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRENGTHENING AND
MIXING DEPTHS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. THIS WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUNSHINE DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER NEW ENGLAND. STILL LOOKING AT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NORMAL AFTER A COOL START.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY MAKING IT FEEL MORE PLEASANT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE
SUNDAY...AND KEEPS A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SO MORE DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT
MAY START TO INCREASE.

MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS...AS A W-SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY SET UP JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP REMAINING
CLOSER TO THE US/CANADA BORDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THINGS MOISTEN UP AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...TRIGGERING RAIN SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.  BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOWERS LINGER TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ENOUGH COLD AIR FILTERING IN COULD HELP TO ADD SOME SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE MIX OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

LOW CHC POPS EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR SQUEEZES MOISTURE
OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT...AND
VERY CLEAR AIR.  ON TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND
70 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

THEN FOLLOWS ABOUT A 36-HOUR PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AS A CENTRAL
CANADA TO OHIO VALLEY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES EASTWARD...
PASSING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...BUT WITH HIGHS BOUNCING BACK ONLY A FEW
DEGREES.  ANOTHER LITTLE JUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ROUND OUT
THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM MOVES SOME...BUT NOT A
LOT OF...CLOUDS AND RAIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S
RANGE.  THE ADIRONDACKS...IN PARTICULAR...WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES COLDER
STILL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE TREND BEGINS TO TURN AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THIS TAF FORECAST CYCLE ENDING
00Z/SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY CLOUD COVER WITH JUST A CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER OR TWO MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KALB. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS DIMINISHES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR CIGS
WITH INCREASING FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS INTO KPSF.

WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS TONIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GUSTY AT
TIMES...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST OVER 25 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

     RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE RH WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80 AND 95 PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25 TO 35 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RH
WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 70 AND 95 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH...SHIFTING
TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER CONTINUES TO BE JUST OVER MAJOR FLOOD
STAGE...ALTHOUGH THE LEVELS WILL BE GRADUALLY RECEDING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING...AND BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT FALLS COMPLETELY
BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KBUF 190022
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
822 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS FAIR WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE START OF NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS A LINE OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ASSOCIATED W/THE SFC FRONT LATE
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...ALL OTHER LOCATIONS ARE MAINLY
EXPERIENCING PRIMARILY JUST CLOUDY SKIES. ALTHOUGH...A FEW STRAY
SPRINKLES STILL CAN`T BE RULED OUT BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE CWA.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY BUILD SOUTH. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH...SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SKIES THERE TOO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN SECTIONS WITH THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
HOLDING TONIGHT TEMPS CLOSE TO LAST NIGHT`S LOW 30S. SATURDAY HIGHS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT OVER THE COUNTRY AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD
WILL AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL
MAKE ITS WAY ASHORE AND EVENTUALLY HELP TO GENERATE OUR NEXT BIG
WEATHER MAKER NEXT WEEK. MORE ON THAT SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW. UP THROUGH THAT TIME THOUGH...THERE WILL BE NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO DEAL WITH ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEG F ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL EXTEND ALL
THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST...PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH GENERALLY
STARLIT SKIES. LIGHT WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE CLEAR SKIES TO
ALLOW FOR FAIRLY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO OUR MINS WILL
RANGE FROM WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF FREEZING OVER THE WRN COUNTIES
TO THE MID 20S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

THE HEART OF THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT TO NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BEAUTIFUL EASTER SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF
BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL ADD SEVERAL DEGREES TO OUR H85 TEMPS...WHICH
IN TURN WILL SUPPORT A WARMER AFTERNOON (COMPARED TO SAT) AS MOST OF
WRN NEW YORK WILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS OF 65 TO 70. IT WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND CERTAINLY WITHIN A COUPLE
MILES OF THE LAKES WHERE WELL DEVELOPED LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
COULD CAP AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 50S.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
WILL CRUISE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE CORRESPONDING LOWERING HGTS AND DIVERGENT FLOW OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL HELP TO CONSOLIDATE A RELATIVELY BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. SINCE ANY REAL
BAROCLINICITY WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH...THIS WILL PROMOTE AN
EVEN NICER DAY FOR MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF
WRN NEW YORK WITH LOW-MID 60S EAST OF LK ONTARIO (AGAIN...NOTABLY
COOLER ALONG THE LAKE SHORES).

CONDITIONS WILL START TO DETERIORATE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE CONSOLIDATING SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND
DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO OUR DOORSTEP. SOME SHOWERS COULD
BREAK OUT IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE AMPLIFIED...BUT PROGRESSIVE...PATTERN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO
CHANGEABLE WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NOT AVERAGING TOO FAR FROM
NORMAL. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...DRY WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF THE
THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN EVENTS WITH UNDER A
QUARTER OF INCH OF RAIN TUES/TUES NIGHT AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS
PROJECTED FOR FRIDAY.

ON TUESDAY...A DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH WHILE IT
WILL PUSH ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS...BUT AS MENTIONED...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE BASE OF ITS SUPPORTING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THESE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

IN FACT...WHILE A SHARPENING RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP TO IMPROVE THE WEATHER OVER THE WRN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY...AN
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY HOLD ONTO THE LEFTOVER SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN
PROMOTE FAIR DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWER
CIGS AND SOME -SHRA.  HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE -SHRA THE FRONT WILL
ONLY HAVE SOME MINOR IMPACTS...SPOTTY MVFR CIGS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL VEER
TO WNW AND PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES WILL BEGIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT/SATURDAY WITH VFR/UNLIMITED CIGS BY SAT
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/CHANCE SHOWERS EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...AR/LEVAN
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...AR/LEVAN
MARINE...AR/LEVAN









000
FXUS61 KOKX 190011
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
811 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH OVERALL A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY
WITH NORTHERN BRANCH OF UPPER LEVEL JET STAYING NORTH OF THE
REGION. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NEAR BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND
THEY WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE LOWER POTENTIAL OF TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
THINK ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR FOR AREAS OF FROST WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER BUT WILL
BE VERY LOCALIZED AND RESTRICTED TO BEST COOLING SPOTS FARTHER
SOUTH.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF 3/4 MET AND 1/4 MAV...WHICH
IS PREFERRING THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. VALUES OVERALL WILL BE
AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...RIDGING TREND IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE AND KEEP A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO QUEBEC WITH WINDS BEING OUT OF THE
NORTH. THE SETUP IS THERE FOR A MUCH WARMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MARINE INFLUENCE TO A MINIMUM AND
DOWNSLOPE WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES EVEN AT THE COAST. MAX
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF 1/2 MAV AND 1/2 GMOS AND INCREASED BY
TWO...PREFERRING THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 5-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT WITH A CUTOFF LOW MOVING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. WHILE THE SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL BE STRONG
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS...AN INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE LOWER DEWPOINTS. WHILE THE LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...THE RH LEVELS WILL BE LOWER...LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY WITH THIS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AT THE COAST. THERE WILL BE
MORE MARINE INFLUENCE. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF ECE AND GMOS AND WILL
BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES. STILL KEEPING CLOUDS LOWER WITH
HIGH PRESSURE NOT TOO FAR AWAY...THEREBY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL AID IN LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. MONDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURE WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WHICH IS NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. 12Z GFS KEEPS THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY
THEREFORE KEPT CONDITIONS DRY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING TONIGHT. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING GUSTY ON SAT
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT STRATUS DEVELOPS...BUT IF IT
DOES OCCUR...WOULD EXPECT EASTERN TERMINALS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
CHC DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO SEE ON IR SAT NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET WITH THE VEIL
OF HIGH CLOUDS OHD.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FROPA TIMING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. TIMING OF
GUSTS DIMINISHING MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FROPA TIMING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. TIMING OF
GUSTS DIMINISHING MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FROPA TIMING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. TIMING OF
GUSTS DIMINISHING MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FROPA TIMING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. GUSTS MAY
DIMINISH A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FROPA TIMING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. GUSTS MAY
DIMINISH A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING TONIGHT. FROPA
TIMING BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. GUSTS MAY DIMINISH A A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NIGHT-TUE AFTN...VFR.
.TUE LATE AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS...COLD
FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10Z SATURDAY AS LINGERING EASTERLY
SWELL KEEPS HIGHER SEAS WITHIN THE FORECAST COASTAL OCEAN ZONES.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE GAINING CONTROL. ONCE THE SEAS ON THE OCEAN SUBSIDE
EARLY SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE AS WELL THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO MOSTLY 20 KT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SCA EVENT FOR OCEAN SEAS ON SUNDAY WITH THE MORE
EASTERLY FLOW.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SEAS ACROSS OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SCA
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY DAY SATURDAY WITH GUSTY N-NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND THEREFORE LOWER RH VALUES. MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 18 AND 30 PERCENT MOSTLY. WIND GUSTS WILL BE UP TO 20-25
MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE FIRE SPREAD
POTENTIAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAINFALL EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS - IF ANY.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...
MARINE...FIG/JM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...FIG/JM









000
FXUS61 KBGM 182353
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
753 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
TONIGHT TO CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN
SATURDAY, LASTING INTO MONDAY. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO THE
60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
640 PM UPDATE...SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO ACROSS ROC TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. LOCAL RADARS SHOW
WEAK RETURNS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN THE LAKE PLAIN BUT DUE TO
20-30 DEGREES DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ONLY SPRINKLES ARE BEING
REPORTED AT THE SFC. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH CHC/SLIGHT
CHC POPS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE NRN FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH LATE EVENING.

2 PM UPDATE...

A WEAK FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO WRN NY ATTM. A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND IT IN SE ONTARIO. WITH THE DRY AIR STILL AT
THE SURFACE EXPECTING VERY LITTLE TO FALL THIS EVE. PRECIP SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE FINGER LAKES AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. MOSTLY SCHC POPS NRN TIER OF
NE PA NORTH.

BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH TO SET
OFF THE LAKE EFFECT WITH 850MB TEMPS AT -4C. WITH NW FLOW SHOULD
ONLY KEEP THE CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING.

SAT AFTN WAA ALOFT KICKS IN AND SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR. AT
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DROPPING THE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH OVER THE CWA SAT NGT EXTENDING NORTH TO
QUEBEC. COLDEST NIGHT COMING UP WITH LOWS MOSTLY 25 TO 32. SOME
RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY BUT SFC WINDS LIGHT.
HIGHS STILL IN THE L60S.

INITIAL SFC LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE CWA LAYING DOWN A FRONT
IN SE CANADA. PRECIP WILL BE STAY IN CANADA WITH A UPPER LEVEL
ZONAL FLOW.

FOR RAIN WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE DIGS A TROF INTO THE UPPER LAKES. LOWERED POPS TO NOTHING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ONLY SCHC POPS FAR NW MON AFTN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY FOR MON NGT AND HV PULLED POPS
DOWN TO SLGT CHC CWA-WIDE WITH LKLY POPS FOR TUE AS FNT COMES
THRU. LINGERING PCPN EXPECTED TUE NGT AS UL TROF SWINGS THRU. 12Z
GFS INDICATES H5 LOW DVLPNG OVR THE COAST WHILE 00Z EURO KEEPS IT
AS AN OPEN WV. FOR THE TIME BEING HV GONE WITH CHC SHOWERS ON WED
FOR ERN SXNS.

1020MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FM THE WEST ON THUR LEADING TO DRY
WX THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD. HIGH TEMPS FOLLOWING FROPA ON WED
WL DROP TO BLO SEASONAL NORMS FOR A DAY AND THEN REBOUND UNDER
S/WV RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WINDS NOW BEGINNING TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES WORKING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING WEAK RETURNS ACROSS WESTERN NY HOWEVER
LITTLE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS REACHING THE GROUND BASED ON VERY DRY
LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS. BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS...EXPECT LITTLE
MORE THAN A BKN-OVC MID-LEVEL DECK AS FRONT ROLES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SOME CLEARING SHORTLY AFTER PASSAGE. AS WINDS CONTINUE
TO VEER...MODELS DO SHOW INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW OFF ALOFT. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT
HOWEVER...AM INCLINED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MVFR MENTION BASED ON THE
ABRUPT CLEARING TREND NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST IF NEEDED.

WINDS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO THE NORTH BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
2 PM FRI UPDATE...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN NY. NONE IN NE PA.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...RH FALLING INTO THE 30S BUT WINDS ONLY 5 TO 15
MPH. SATURDAY INCREASING WINDS AND SUNSHINE. ERN AREAS COULD HAVE
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. RH FALLING TO 25 TO 40 PERCENT. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS AND SEE IF THE 10 HOUR FUELS DRY ENOUGH.

FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...CMG
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KALY 182352
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
752 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW TO
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...UPSTREAM RADAR DEPICTS A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS FROM
KROC-KART-KMSS WITH A GRADUAL PROGRESSION EASTWARD. AS NOTED IN
UPSTREAM METARS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER LOW WITH
CEILINGS ABOVE 5K FEET. HRRR REFLECTIVITIES SUGGEST THESE SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH FURTHER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK PARK AND HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY NORTH OF KALB TOWARD OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO NO
CHANGES TO THE POPS/WX AT THIS TIME AND JUST A MINOR TWEAK TO THE
ONGOING HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MIXED OVER
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT WITH MEAGER QPF SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 30S...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW QUICKLY BECOMING ANTI-CYCLONIC. SO JUST
AN ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASING SUNSHINE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRENGTHENING AND
MIXING DEPTHS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. THIS WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUNSHINE DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER NEW ENGLAND. STILL LOOKING AT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NORMAL AFTER A COOL START.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY MAKING IT FEEL MORE PLEASANT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE
SUNDAY...AND KEEPS A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SO MORE DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT
MAY START TO INCREASE.

MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS...AS A W-SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY SET UP JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP REMAINING
CLOSER TO THE US/CANADA BORDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THINGS MOISTEN UP AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...TRIGGERING RAIN SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.  BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOWERS LINGER TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ENOUGH COLD AIR FILTERING IN COULD HELP TO ADD SOME SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE MIX OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

LOW CHC POPS EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR SQUEEZES MOISTURE
OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT...AND
VERY CLEAR AIR.  ON TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND
70 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

THEN FOLLOWS ABOUT A 36-HOUR PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AS A CENTRAL
CANADA TO OHIO VALLEY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES EASTWARD...
PASSING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...BUT WITH HIGHS BOUNCING BACK ONLY A FEW
DEGREES.  ANOTHER LITTLE JUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ROUND OUT
THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM MOVES SOME...BUT NOT A
LOT OF...CLOUDS AND RAIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S
RANGE.  THE ADIRONDACKS...IN PARTICULAR...WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES COLDER
STILL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE TREND BEGINS TO TURN AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THIS TAF FORECAST CYCLE ENDING
00Z/SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY CLOUD COVER WITH JUST A CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER OR TWO MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KALB. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS DIMINISHES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR CIGS
WITH INCREASING FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS INTO KPSF.

WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS TONIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GUSTY AT
TIMES...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST OVER 25 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

     RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE RH WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80 AND 95 PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25 TO 35 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RH
WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 70 AND 95 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH...SHIFTING
TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER CONTINUES TO BE JUST OVER MAJOR FLOOD
STAGE...ALTHOUGH THE LEVELS WILL BE GRADUALLY RECEDING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING...AND BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT FALLS COMPLETELY
BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KBTV 182341
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 724 PM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS MOVING
INTO SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON SCHEDULE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE EAST INTO ADIRONDACKS THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS IT ADVANCES FURTHER
EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY CHANGES TO GOING
FORECAST WERE TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON SATELLITE PICS...AND TO KEEP FORECAST
CURRENT BY INPUTTING LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO GRIDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TO TRACK THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT
CURRENT SURFACE OBS...WE`VE GOT SOME PRETTY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE
WITH RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
EASTWARD...AND RISING TO THE 30S CLOSER TO THE FRONT IN THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH SUCH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND WEAKENING
RETURNS ON UPSTREAM RADAR...NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE A WHOLE LOT OF
QPF WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAYBE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO A
TENTH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN DACKS THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT
WASHES OUT EASTWARD. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS
THE WINDS TURN WEST/NORTHWEST WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE NW SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN GREENS...BUT LIKELY ONLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH AT BEST.
LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY
MID- DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO
DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH
50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY. ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...BUT AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPS IN
THE 30S TO 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE ECMWF MODEL ON FRIDAY BRINGS
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW GIVEN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE
OTTAWA VALLEY BRINGING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NRN NY THIS
EVENING AND ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT OVERNIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT KSLK BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS BEFORE DAYBREAK. OVERALL...LOOKING AT
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR WITH THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIR TRRN MAY ALSO BE OBSCD BETWEEN 04-09Z. A WIND
SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS INITIALLY S-SE ACROSS VT
AND S-SW ACROSS NY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK FOLLOWING
FROPA. GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...GENERALLY 320/12G24KT.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY TO 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...BANACOS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 182324
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
724 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 724 PM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS MOVING
INTO SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON SCHEDULE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE EAST INTO ADIRONDACKS THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS IT ADVANCES FURTHER
EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY CHANGES TO GOING
FORECAST WERE TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON SATELLITE PICS...AND TO KEEP FORECAST
CURRENT BY INPUTTING LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO GRIDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TO TRACK THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT
CURRENT SURFACE OBS...WE`VE GOT SOME PRETTY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE
WITH RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
EASTWARD...AND RISING TO THE 30S CLOSER TO THE FRONT IN THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH SUCH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND WEAKENING
RETURNS ON UPSTREAM RADAR...NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE A WHOLE LOT OF
QPF WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAYBE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO A
TENTH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN DACKS THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT
WASHES OUT EASTWARD. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS
THE WINDS TURN WEST/NORTHWEST WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE NW SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN GREENS...BUT LIKELY ONLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH AT BEST.
LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY
MID- DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO
DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH
50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY. ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...BUT AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPS IN
THE 30S TO 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE ECMWF MODEL ON FRIDAY BRINGS
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW GIVEN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WITH CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. EXPECTING
MAINLY SPRINKLES WITH THIS COLD FRONT AS LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT 17Z FRIDAY SHOWING A LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. EXPECTING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z SATURDAY
TIL 14Z SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY TO 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 182323
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
723 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 717 PM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS MOVING
INTO SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON SCHEDULE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE EAST INTO ADIRONDACKS THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS IT ADVANCES FURTHER
EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ONLY CHANGES TO GOING
FORECAST WERE TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON SATELLITE PICS...AND TO KEEP FORECAST
CURRENT BY INPUTTING LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO GRIDS.

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC TO TRACK THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT CURRENT SURFACE OBS...WE`VE GOT SOME
PRETTY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS AND 20S FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD...AND RISING TO THE
30S CLOSER TO THE FRONT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH SUCH DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND WEAKENING RETURNS ON UPSTREAM
RADAR...NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE A WHOLE LOT OF QPF WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAYBE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN DACKS
THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT WASHES OUT
EASTWARD. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS THE WINDS
TURN WEST/NORTHWEST WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT BEFORE PRECIP ENDS.
BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE NW SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
GREENS...BUT LIKELY ONLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH AT BEST. LOWS WILL
BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY
MID- DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO
DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH
50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY. ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...BUT AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPS IN
THE 30S TO 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE ECMWF MODEL ON FRIDAY BRINGS
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW GIVEN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WITH CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. EXPECTING
MAINLY SPRINKLES WITH THIS COLD FRONT AS LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT 17Z FRIDAY SHOWING A LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. EXPECTING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z SATURDAY
TIL 14Z SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY TO 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH







000
FXUS61 KBGM 182244
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
TONIGHT TO CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN
SATURDAY, LASTING INTO MONDAY. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO THE
60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
640 PM UPDATE...SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO ACROSS ROC TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. LOCAL RADARS SHOW
WEAK RETURNS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN THE LAKE PLAIN BUT DUE TO
20-30 DEGREES DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ONLY SPRINKLES ARE BEING
REPORTED AT THE SFC. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH CHC/SLIGHT
CHC POPS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE NRN FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH LATE EVENING.

2 PM UPDATE...

A WEAK FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO WRN NY ATTM. A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND IT IN SE ONTARIO. WITH THE DRY AIR STILL AT
THE SURFACE EXPECTING VERY LITTLE TO FALL THIS EVE. PRECIP SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE FINGER LAKES AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. MOSTLY SCHC POPS NRN TIER OF
NE PA NORTH.

BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH TO SET
OFF THE LAKE EFFECT WITH 850MB TEMPS AT -4C. WITH NW FLOW SHOULD
ONLY KEEP THE CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING.

SAT AFTN WAA ALOFT KICKS IN AND SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR. AT
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DROPPING THE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH OVER THE CWA SAT NGT EXTENDING NORTH TO
QUEBEC. COLDEST NIGHT COMING UP WITH LOWS MOSTLY 25 TO 32. SOME
RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY BUT SFC WINDS LIGHT.
HIGHS STILL IN THE L60S.

INITIAL SFC LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE CWA LAYING DOWN A FRONT
IN SE CANADA. PRECIP WILL BE STAY IN CANADA WITH A UPPER LEVEL
ZONAL FLOW.

FOR RAIN WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE DIGS A TROF INTO THE UPPER LAKES. LOWERED POPS TO NOTHING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ONLY SCHC POPS FAR NW MON AFTN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY FOR MON NGT AND HV PULLED POPS
DOWN TO SLGT CHC CWA-WIDE WITH LKLY POPS FOR TUE AS FNT COMES
THRU. LINGERING PCPN EXPECTED TUE NGT AS UL TROF SWINGS THRU. 12Z
GFS INDICATES H5 LOW DVLPNG OVR THE COAST WHILE 00Z EURO KEEPS IT
AS AN OPEN WV. FOR THE TIME BEING HV GONE WITH CHC SHOWERS ON WED
FOR ERN SXNS.

1020MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FM THE WEST ON THUR LEADING TO DRY
WX THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD. HIGH TEMPS FOLLOWING FROPA ON WED
WL DROP TO BLO SEASONAL NORMS FOR A DAY AND THEN REBOUND UNDER
S/WV RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH TAF VALID TIME. MID-HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE BETWEEN 02 AND 07Z AT
KSYR AND KRME. FOLLOWING WEAK FRONT TONIGHT MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
BKN-OVC VFR CIGS ARND 5KFT BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AROUND 13Z WITH KELM AND KAVP SKC
AFTER THIS TIME.

WINDS AROUND 10KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL BECOME WNW FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
2 PM FRI UPDATE...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN NY. NONE IN NE PA.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...RH FALLING INTO THE 30S BUT WINDS ONLY 5 TO 15
MPH. SATURDAY INCREASING WINDS AND SUNSHINE. ERN AREAS COULD HAVE
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. RH FALLING TO 25 TO 40 PERCENT. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS AND SEE IF THE 10 HOUR FUELS DRY ENOUGH.

FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KBUF 182123
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
523 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS FAIR WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE START OF NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD PUSHING
INTO WESTERN NY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE CLOUD SHIELD...REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE ONTARIO
AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN RAIN
FREE.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY BUILD SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR CLEARING
SKIES TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN SECTIONS WITH THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
HOLDING TONIGHT TEMPS CLOSE TO LAST NIGHT`S LOW 30S. SATURDAY HIGHS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT OVER THE COUNTRY AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD
WILL AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL
MAKE ITS WAY ASHORE AND EVENTUALLY HELP TO GENERATE OUR NEXT BIG
WEATHER MAKER NEXT WEEK. MORE ON THAT SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW. UP THROUGH THAT TIME THOUGH...THERE WILL BE NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO DEAL WITH ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEG F ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL EXTEND ALL
THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST...PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH GENERALLY
STARLIT SKIES. LIGHT WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE CLEAR SKIES TO
ALLOW FOR FAIRLY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO OUR MINS WILL
RANGE FROM WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF FREEZING OVER THE WRN COUNTIES
TO THE MID 20S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

THE HEART OF THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT TO NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BEAUTIFUL EASTER SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF
BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL ADD SEVERAL DEGREES TO OUR H85 TEMPS...WHICH
IN TURN WILL SUPPORT A WARMER AFTERNOON (COMPARED TO SAT) AS MOST OF
WRN NEW YORK WILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS OF 65 TO 70. IT WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND CERTAINLY WITHIN A COUPLE
MILES OF THE LAKES WHERE WELL DEVELOPED LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
COULD CAP AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 50S.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
WILL CRUISE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE CORRESPONDING LOWERING HGTS AND DIVERGENT FLOW OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL HELP TO CONSOLIDATE A RELATIVELY BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. SINCE ANY REAL
BAROCLINICITY WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH...THIS WILL PROMOTE AN
EVEN NICER DAY FOR MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF
WRN NEW YORK WITH LOW-MID 60S EAST OF LK ONTARIO (AGAIN...NOTABLY
COOLER ALONG THE LAKE SHORES).

CONDITIONS WILL START TO DETERIORATE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE CONSOLIDATING SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND
DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO OUR DOORSTEP. SOME SHOWERS COULD
BREAK OUT IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE AMPLIFIED...BUT PROGRESSIVE...PATTERN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO
CHANGEABLE WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NOT AVERAGING TOO FAR FROM
NORMAL. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...DRY WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF THE
THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN EVENTS WITH UNDER A
QUARTER OF INCH OF RAIN TUES/TUES NIGHT AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS
PROJECTED FOR FRIDAY.

ON TUESDAY...A DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH WHILE IT
WILL PUSH ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS...BUT AS MENTIONED...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE BASE OF ITS SUPPORTING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THESE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

IN FACT...WHILE A SHARPENING RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP TO IMPROVE THE WEATHER OVER THE WRN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY...AN
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY HOLD ONTO THE LEFTOVER SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN
PROMOTE FAIR DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 21Z...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO WESTERN NY WITH
LOWERING CIGS AND SOME -SHRA.  HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE -SHRA THE
FRONT WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL VEER TO WNW BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO CLEAR.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER
TONIGHT/SATURDAY WITH VFR/UNLIMITED CIGS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/CHANCE SHOWERS EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...AR/LEVAN
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...AR/LEVAN
MARINE...AR/LEVAN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 181955
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
355 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL...A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH NORTHERN BRANCH OF
UPPER LEVEL JET STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
NEAR BY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AND FURTHER
SCATTER WITH JUST CIRRUS BY LATE TONIGHT.

AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND
THEY WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY WINDS AND EXTRA CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE
LOWER POTENTIAL OF TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THINK ENOUGH RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR FOR AREAS OF FROST
WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER BUT WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED AND
RESTRICTED TO BEST COOLING SPOTS FARTHER SOUTH.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF 3/4 MET AND 1/4 MAV...WHICH
IS PREFERRING THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. VALUES OVERALL WILL BE
AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...RIDGING TREND IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE AND KEEP A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO QUEBEC WITH WINDS BEING OUT OF THE
NORTH. THE SETUP IS THERE FOR A MUCH WARMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MARINE INFLUENCE TO A MINIMUM AND
DOWNSLOPE WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES EVEN AT THE COAST. MAX
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF 1/2 MAV AND 1/2 GMOS AND INCREASED BY
TWO...PREFERRING THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 5-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT WITH A CUTOFF LOW MOVING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. WHILE THE SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL BE STRONG
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS...AN INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE LOWER DEWPOINTS. WHILE THE LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...THE RH LEVELS WILL BE LOWER...LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY WITH THIS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AT THE COAST. THERE WILL BE
MORE MARINE INFLUENCE. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF ECE AND GMOS AND WILL
BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES. STILL KEEPING CLOUDS LOWER WITH
HIGH PRESSURE NOT TOO FAR AWAY...THEREBY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL AID IN LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. MONDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURE WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WHICH IS NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. 12Z GFS KEEPS THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY
THEREFORE KEPT CONDITIONS DRY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING TONIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
SOUTHEAST-SOUTH FLOW LESS THAN 8 KT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS TOMORROW WILL REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 8-15KT. EXPECT GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE.

LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP AFTER
00Z SATURDAY...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. VFR EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR.
.TUE LATE AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS...COLD
FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10Z SATURDAY AS LINGERING EASTERLY
SWELL KEEPS HIGHER SEAS WITHIN THE FORECAST COASTAL OCEAN ZONES.
THIS AFTERNOON...FOR BUOY 44017 SEAS WERE RUNNING ABOUT 1 FT
HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE GAINING CONTROL. ONCE THE SEAS ON THE OCEAN SUBSIDE
EARLY SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE AS WELL THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO MOSTLY 20 KT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SCA EVENT FOR OCEAN SEAS ON SUNDAY WITH THE MORE
EASTERLY FLOW.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SEAS ACROSS OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SCA
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY DAY SATURDAY WITH GUSTY N-NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND THEREFORE LOWER RH VALUES. MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 18 AND 30 PERCENT MOSTLY. WIND GUSTS WILL BE UP TO 20-25
MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE ANY FIRE SPREAD
POTENTIAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAINFALL EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS - IF ANY.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...FIG/JM
FIRE WEATHER...JM
HYDROLOGY...FIG/JM







000
FXUS61 KALY 181950
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
350 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW TO
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT...HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A THICKER BAND OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH JUST NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS IMPRESSIVE
DYNAMICS...MOST OF THE FORCING WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
AREA. ALSO...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF INDICATE A BROKEN BAND
OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
HOLD TOGETHER AND IMPACT AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK FARTHER EAST LATE. SO JUST
EXPECTING THICKENING CLOUDS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MIXED OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS BUT WITH MEAGER QPF SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
30S...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW QUICKLY BECOMING ANTI-CYCLONIC. SO JUST
AN ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASING SUNSHINE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRENGTHENING AND
MIXING DEPTHS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. THIS WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUNSHINE DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER NEW ENGLAND. STILL LOOKING AT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NORMAL AFTER A COOL START.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY MAKING IT FEEL MORE PLEASANT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE
SUNDAY...AND KEEPS A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SO MORE DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT
MAY START TO INCREASE.

MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS...AS A W-SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY SET UP JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP REMAINING
CLOSER TO THE US/CANADA BORDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THINGS MOISTEN UP AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...TRIGGERING RAIN SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.  BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOWERS LINGER TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ENOUGH COLD AIR FILTERING IN COULD HELP TO ADD SOME SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE MIX OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

LOW CHC POPS EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR SQUEEZES MOISTURE
OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT...AND
VERY CLEAR AIR.  ON TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND
70 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

THEN FOLLOWS ABOUT A 36-HOUR PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AS A CENTRAL
CANADA TO OHIO VALLEY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES EASTWARD...
PASSING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...BUT WITH HIGHS BOUNCING BACK ONLY A FEW
DEGREES.  ANOTHER LITTLE JUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ROUND OUT
THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM MOVES SOME...BUT NOT A
LOT OF...CLOUDS AND RAIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S
RANGE.  THE ADIRONDACKS...IN PARTICULAR...WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES COLDER
STILL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE TREND BEGINS TO TURN AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...ANY LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AT KPOU HAVE ERODED
AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS
ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AND SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH A PASSING SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH AT KGFL FROM 06Z TO
12Z. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE...ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PRODUCE A
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS DECK IN THE 2-3 KFT RANGE....ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MVFR CEILINGS AT THIS
TIME. ANY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY ERODE BY 15Z AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS TONIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GUSTY AT
TIMES...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST OVER 25 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

...RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE RH WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80 AND 95 PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25 TO 35 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RH
WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 70 AND 95 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH...SHIFTING
TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER CONTINUES TO BE JUST OVER MAJOR FLOOD
STAGE...ALTHOUGH THE LEVELS WILL BE GRADUALLY RECEDING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING...AND BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT FALLS COMPLETELY
BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KBUF 181930
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
330 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS FAIR WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE START OF NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING.
RADAR SHOWING ECHOES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH WATERLOO
AND LONDON REPORTING LIGHT SHOWERS.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THOUGH GIVEN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE PCPN EXPECT THAT THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES SHOULD
REMAIN RAIN FREE.

AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH...CLEARING BEGINS LATER OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN SECTIONS WITH THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
HOLDING TONIGHT TEMPS CLOSE TO LAST NIGHT`S LOW 30S. SATURDAY HIGHS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT OVER THE COUNTRY AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD
WILL AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL
MAKE ITS WAY ASHORE AND EVENTUALLY HELP TO GENERATE OUR NEXT BIG
WEATHER MAKER NEXT WEEK. MORE ON THAT SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW. UP THROUGH THAT TIME THOUGH...THERE WILL BE NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO DEAL WITH ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEG F ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL EXTEND ALL
THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST...PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH GENERALLY
STARLIT SKIES. LIGHT WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE CLEAR SKIES TO
ALLOW FOR FAIRLY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO OUR MINS WILL
RANGE FROM WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF FREEZING OVER THE WRN COUNTIES
TO THE MID 20S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

THE HEART OF THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT TO NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BEAUTIFUL EASTER SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF
BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL ADD SEVERAL DEGREES TO OUR H85 TEMPS...WHICH
IN TURN WILL SUPPORT A WARMER AFTERNOON (COMPARED TO SAT) AS MOST OF
WRN NEW YORK WILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS OF 65 TO 70. IT WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND CERTAINLY WITHIN A COUPLE
MILES OF THE LAKES WHERE WELL DEVELOPED LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
COULD CAP AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 50S.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
WILL CRUISE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE CORRESPONDING LOWERING HGTS AND DIVERGENT FLOW OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL HELP TO CONSOLIDATE A RELATIVELY BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. SINCE ANY REAL
BAROCLINICITY WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH...THIS WILL PROMOTE AN
EVEN NICER DAY FOR MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF
WRN NEW YORK WITH LOW-MID 60S EAST OF LK ONTARIO (AGAIN...NOTABLY
COOLER ALONG THE LAKE SHORES).

CONDITIONS WILL START TO DETERIORATE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE CONSOLIDATING SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND
DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO OUR DOORSTEP. SOME SHOWERS COULD
BREAK OUT IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE AMPLIFIED...BUT PROGRESSIVE...PATTERN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO
CHANGEABLE WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NOT AVERAGING TOO FAR FROM
NORMAL. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...DRY WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF THE
THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN EVENTS WITH UNDER A
QUARTER OF INCH OF RAIN TUES/TUES NIGHT AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS
PROJECTED FOR FRIDAY.

ON TUESDAY...A DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH WHILE IT
WILL PUSH ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS...BUT AS MENTIONED...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE BASE OF ITS SUPPORTING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THESE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

IN FACT...WHILE A SHARPENING RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP TO IMPROVE THE WEATHER OVER THE WRN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY...AN
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY HOLD ONTO THE LEFTOVER SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN
PROMOTE FAIR DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THICKEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR CIGS
ACCOMPANYING THE ACTUAL FROPA ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
WINDS VEER TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONT.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN LATER TONIGHT/SATURDAY WITH VFR/UNLIMITED CIGS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/CHANCE SHOWERS EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES
BAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...LEVAN








000
FXUS61 KBTV 181930
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 311 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC TO TRACK THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT CURRENT SURFACE OBS...WE`VE GOT SOME
PRETTY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS AND 20S FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD...AND RISING TO THE
30S CLOSER TO THE FRONT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH SUCH DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND WEAKENING RETURNS ON UPSTREAM
RADAR...NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE A WHOLE LOT OF QPF WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAYBE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN DACKS
THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT WASHES OUT
EASTWARD. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS THE WINDS
TURN WEST/NORTHWEST WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT BEFORE PRECIP ENDS.
BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE NW SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
GREENS...BUT LIKELY ONLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH AT BEST. LOWS WILL
BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY
MID- DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO
DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH
50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY. ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...BUT AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPS IN
THE 30S TO 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE ECMWF MODEL ON FRIDAY BRINGS
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW GIVEN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WITH CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. EXPECTING
MAINLY SPRINKLES WITH THIS COLD FRONT AS LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT 17Z FRIDAY SHOWING A LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. EXPECTING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z SATURDAY
TIL 14Z SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY TO 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 181912
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
312 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 311 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC TO TRACK THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT CURRENT SURFACE OBS...WE`VE GOT SOME
PRETTY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE
TEENS AND 20S FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD...AND RISING TO THE
30S CLOSER TO THE FRONT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH SUCH DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND WEAKENING RETURNS ON UPSTREAM
RADAR...NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE A WHOLE LOT OF QPF WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAYBE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN DACKS
THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT WASHES OUT
EASTWARD. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS THE WINDS
TURN WEST/NORTHWEST WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT BEFORE PRECIP ENDS.
BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE NW SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
GREENS...BUT LIKELY ONLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH AT BEST. LOWS WILL
BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY
MID- DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO
DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH
50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY. ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...BUT AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPS IN
THE 30S TO 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A SHOWERY PERIOD IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY TUE-WED NEXT WEEK AS
PATTERN AMPLIFIES NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A DIGGING LONG WAVE TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION SO
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THIS GENERAL
SOLUTION, BUT ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF DIGGING AND
EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST ON WED
AND HOW FAST IT PULLS AWAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET MONDAY UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT MAY BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
AREA. THIS MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWER TO NORTHERN AREAS ON
MONDAY SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE POP THERE. WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +4C
SHOULD HAVE HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

ON TUESDAY THE TROF REALLY DIGS IN WITH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST US. COOLER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN AS THE SLOW
SLIDES EAST BUT TUES EVENING. TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE THE HIGHEST POP OF THE PERIOD AND IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS
WILL BE 55 TO 60 ON TUE BEFORE COOLING OFF INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S AT NIGHT.

BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THIS LOW CONSOLIDATES SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST PUTTING OUR REGION INTO A COOLER AND MOIST
NORTHERLY FLOW. STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND AS IT DOES PULLS EVEN
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION SO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING EARLY THU WITH LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOW 40S.

THURSDAY SHOULD FEATURE CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGHS 55 TO 60 AS THE
UPPER TROF AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST AWAY FROM US AND RIDGING
ALOFT INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WITH CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. EXPECTING
MAINLY SPRINKLES WITH THIS COLD FRONT AS LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT 17Z FRIDAY SHOWING A LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. EXPECTING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z SATURDAY
TIL 14Z SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY TO 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...WGH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 181908
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
308 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
TONIGHT TO CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN
SATURDAY, LASTING INTO MONDAY. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO THE
60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

A WEAK FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO WRN NY ATTM. A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND IT IN SE ONTARIO. WITH THE DRY AIR STILL AT
THE SURFACE EXPECTING VERY LITTLE TO FALL THIS EVE. PRECIP SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE FINGER LAKES AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. MOSTLY SCHC POPS NRN TIER OF
NE PA NORTH.

BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH TO SET
OFF THE LAKE EFFECT WITH 850MB TEMPS AT -4C. WITH NW FLOW SHOULD
ONLY KEEP THE CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING.

SAT AFTN WAA ALOFT KICKS IN AND SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR. AT
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DROPPING THE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH OVER THE CWA SAT NGT EXTENDING NORTH TO
QUEBEC. COLDEST NIGHT COMING UP WITH LOWS MOSTLY 25 TO 32. SOME
RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY BUT SFC WINDS LIGHT.
HIGHS STILL IN THE L60S.

INITIAL SFC LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE CWA LAYING DOWN A FRONT
IN SE CANADA. PRECIP WILL BE STAY IN CANADA WITH A UPPER LEVEL
ZONAL FLOW.

FOR RAIN WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE DIGS A TROF INTO THE UPPER LAKES. LOWERED POPS TO NOTHING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ONLY SCHC POPS FAR NW MON AFTN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY FOR MON NGT AND HV PULLED POPS
DOWN TO SLGT CHC CWA-WIDE WITH LKLY POPS FOR TUE AS FNT COMES
THRU. LINGERING PCPN EXPECTED TUE NGT AS UL TROF SWINGS THRU. 12Z
GFS INDICATES H5 LOW DVLPNG OVR THE COAST WHILE 00Z EURO KEEPS IT
AS AN OPEN WV. FOR THE TIME BEING HV GONE WITH CHC SHOWERS ON WED
FOR ERN SXNS.

1020MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FM THE WEST ON THUR LEADING TO DRY
WX THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD. HIGH TEMPS FOLLOWING FROPA ON WED
WL DROP TO BLO SEASONAL NORMS FOR A DAY AND THEN REBOUND UNDER
S/WV RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH TAF VALID TIME. MID-HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE BETWEEN 02 AND 07Z AT
KSYR AND KRME. FOLLOWING WEAK FRONT TONIGHT MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
BKN-OVC VFR CIGS ARND 5KFT BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AROUND 13Z WITH KELM AND KAVP SKC
AFTER THIS TIME.

WINDS AROUND 10KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL BECOME WNW FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
2 PM FRI UPDATE...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN NY. NONE IN NE PA.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...RH FALLING INTO THE 30S BUT WINDS ONLY 5 TO 15
MPH. SATURDAY INCREASING WINDS AND SUNSHINE. ERN AREAS COULD HAVE
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. RH FALLING TO 25 TO 40 PERCENT. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS AND SEE IF THE 10 HOUR FUELS DRY ENOUGH.

FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 181818
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
218 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH THEN SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING A STRONGER INFLUENCE IN TERMS OF MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE
SCATTERED...MANY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN...MITIGATING SOLAR
INSOLATION. HENCE...MAX TEMPS WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY AGAIN WITH THE
UPDATE. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
WITH LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST WESTERN AREAS SUCH AS ORANGE
COUNTY...FARTHEST AWAY FROM THE EASTERLY WIND.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE
NORTHEAST AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED IN KEEPING THE FRONT TO THE
NORTH...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA AS THE MAIN
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL.
A PASSING VORT MAX WILL KEEP THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A WARMING TREND WITH
WAA...THE COMBINATION OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW...AND CLOUD COVER WILL
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH SETTING UP BRIEFLY OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE TROUGH IS QUICKLY
REPLACED BY THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE...BUILDING SOUTH AND EAST FROM
CANADA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT AGAIN MAIN
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING AT THE SURFACE
ALONG WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT. RIDGING SETS
UP QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH FOR SATURDAY AND WITH
BUILDING SUBSIDENCE...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND SUNNY DAY ONCE
THE MORNING CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TONIGHT...AND THEN EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING INFLUENCE.

INCREASED WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES ON SATURDAY COULD LEAD TO AN
ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE...WITH
SUSTAINED 10-15 MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CORRESPONDING WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY AND WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER IN
THIS TIME FRAME. FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES NEAR NORMAL IN NYC PROPER...AND A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE. FOR HIGHS SUNDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN
FROM 925-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT READINGS TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY...THEN
EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY...BUT COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEVELOPING FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH.

TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHARPEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF IT LIKELY
CONFINED TO THE NW 1/3-1/2 OF THE CWA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO E
PA/UPSTATE NY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BEGINS TO TAKE ON A BIT OF A
NEGATIVE TILT...WOULD EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...NOTING SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
TIMING...AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
CHANCE AT THIS TIME.

SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION EXITS TO THE E
ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE 00Z CMC
AND GFS WHEN COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW SOON
WILL A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO NEGATIVELY TILT
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THIS CUTOFF LIFT TO THE
NE. FOR NOW...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION...AS SLOWER IS OFTEN THE BETTER FORECAST WITH NEGATIVELY
TILTED SYSTEMS. AS A RESULT DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE NE 1/3 OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...WITH A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR TO
THE NE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THAT THE FORECAST COULD LATER
EVOLVE INTO A CLOUDIER ONE WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THIS TIME
FRAME.

FOR TEMPERATURES MONDAY-THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN NEAR
NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME AREAS MAINLY FROM NYC ON W HITTING 70. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
FOR NOW SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE
OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...IF THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW ENDS UP CLOSER
TO THE AREA...THEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. WITH JUST MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES TURNING WINDS S AT 8-12 KT.

WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST THEN NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. WINDS TOMORROW WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
8-15KT.

LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP AFTER
00Z SATURDAY...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. VFR EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR.
.TUE LATE AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS...COLD
FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS EXTENDED UNTIL 10Z SATURDAY AS LINGERING
EASTERLY SWELL KEEPS HIGHER SEAS WITHIN THE FORECAST COASTAL OCEAN
ZONES. THIS AFTERNOON...BUOY 44017 SEAS WERE RUNNING ABOUT 1 FT HIGHER
THAN WAVEWATCH.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ONCE
THE SEAS ON THE OCEAN SUBSIDE TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THERE AS WELL.

AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH WINDS ON NON-OCEAN WATERS 10 KT OR LESS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS COULD
EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SHOULD ALSO BE
10 KT OR LESS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS - IF ANY.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS
NEAR TERM...JM/SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JM/MALOIT/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/SEARS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 181757
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
157 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS FAIR WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE START OF NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
RADAR BEGINNING TO SHOW ECHOES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WITH WATERLOO AND LONDON REPORTING LIGHT SHOWERS.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THOUGH GIVEN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE PCPN EXPECT THAT THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES SHOULD
REMAIN RAIN FREE.

AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH...CLEARING BEGINS LATER OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN SECTIONS WITH THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
HOLDING TONIGHT TEMPS CLOSE TO LAST NIGHT`S LOW 30S. SATURDAY HIGHS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON SATURDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR DRAPED FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BUILDS EAST
INTO NEW YORK STATE. AS A RESULT...AND LEFTOVER CLOUDS AND SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AREAWIDE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS...850 MB READINGS RANGING FROM ABOUT +1C
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK TO -4/-5C ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL TRANSLATE INTO SURFACE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S IN
MOST PLACES...THOUGH AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORES OF BOTH LAKES WILL
BE KEPT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER BY THE PREVAILING NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW.

THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND WILL THEN FEATURE CONTINUED FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST AND OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH JUST A LIMITED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PRESSES IN OUR DIRECTION FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TO THE MID 30S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...THEN A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MILDER AIR WILL HELP SEND TEMPS BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE 850 MB TEMPS OF +5C TO +7C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...THOUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL NOT FARE TOO BADLY
EITHER WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
EVEN THERE. THE ABOVE STATED...AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES
WILL AGAIN BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN THEIR INLAND COUNTERPARTS...
THIS TIME DUE TO DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...WHERE IT WILL THEN STALL AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY
AS WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING ALONG THE CENTRAL US-CANADA
BORDER HELPS KEY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THE ENCROACHING
FRONT WILL BRING A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AND EVENTUALLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS
MOISTURE AND LIFT BOTH BEGIN TO POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH...AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO APPEAR TO REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...AND SHOULD THUS REMAIN DRY RIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY A MORE LIMITED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A MILDER NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN
CONSIDERABLY MILDER AIRMASS IN PLACE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S. FURTHER WARMING ALOFT WILL THEN PUSH 850 MB TEMPS TO THE
+6C TO +9C RANGE ON MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH WILL BE KEPT A BIT COOLER
DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT AND GREATER AMOUNTS OF
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH THE UPSTREAM
SURFACE LOW SLIDING EAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WHILE ALSO BRINGING THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME CONFINED TO
THE HIGH-END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY NEED
TO BE BUMPED UPWARD IN THE NEAR FUTURE SHOULD THE INCREASED
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES
CONTINUE TO HOLD.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...SHOWER CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH OUR AIRMASS
PERHAPS GETTING COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH COUNTRY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FINALLY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BOTH APPEAR TO BE QUIET AND
DRY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE TO CLOSE OUT THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURE-WISE...IT APPEARS
THAT SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE RIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MODERATING BACK TO MORE NORMAL
LEVELS ON THURSDAY AS READINGS ALOFT BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THICKEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR CIGS
ACCOMPANYING THE ACTUAL FROPA ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
WINDS VEER TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONT.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN LATER TONIGHT/SATURDAY WITH VFR/UNLIMITED CIGS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/CHANCE SHOWERS EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES
BAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...LEVAN








000
FXUS61 KBTV 181754
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
154 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A
NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 123 PM EDT FRIDAY...IT`S A LOVELY SPRING AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH TEMPS JUST ABOUT 50 DEGREES OR WARMER UNDER
FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH SCT-BKN CIRRUS DECK. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC...BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
EASTWARD INTO VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 444 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY
CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW...WELL NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND NO MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY
SATURDAY MORNING. FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ON SATURDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LINGERING
THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT ENDED THERE EVEN BY
18Z. COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...KEEPING
SATURDAY COLDER THAN TODAY. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD
WITH TEMPS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY BUT WARMER AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
EASTWARD AND RETURN FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A SHOWERY PERIOD IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY TUE-WED NEXT WEEK AS
PATTERN AMPLIFIES NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A DIGGING LONG WAVE TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION SO
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THIS GENERAL
SOLUTION, BUT ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF DIGGING AND
EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST ON WED
AND HOW FAST IT PULLS AWAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET MONDAY UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT MAY BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
AREA. THIS MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWER TO NORTHERN AREAS ON
MONDAY SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE POP THERE. WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +4C
SHOULD HAVE HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

ON TUESDAY THE TROF REALLY DIGS IN WITH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST US. COOLER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN AS THE SLOW
SLIDES EAST BUT TUES EVENING. TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE THE HIGHEST POP OF THE PERIOD AND IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS
WILL BE 55 TO 60 ON TUE BEFORE COOLING OFF INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S AT NIGHT.

BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THIS LOW CONSOLIDATES SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST PUTTING OUR REGION INTO A COOLER AND MOIST
NORTHERLY FLOW. STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND AS IT DOES PULLS EVEN
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION SO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING EARLY THU WITH LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOW 40S.

THURSDAY SHOULD FEATURE CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGHS 55 TO 60 AS THE
UPPER TROF AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST AWAY FROM US AND RIDGING
ALOFT INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WITH CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. EXPECTING
MAINLY SPRINKLES WITH THIS COLD FRONT AS LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT 17Z FRIDAY SHOWING A LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. EXPECTING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z SATURDAY
TIL 14Z SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY TO 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...WGH







000
FXUS61 KBGM 181742
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
142 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY...PERHAPS LASTING INTO MONDAY. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...

THICK HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CWA HAVE SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE RISE
BUT MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK GOOD. LOW CLOUDS OVER THE FAR SE FROM
ATLANTIC MOISTURE HAVE SLOWED TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE. AS A WEAK
COLD APPROACHES LATE TODAY THE LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT THIS EVENING. OTHER THAN TEMPS AND
CLOUDS NO CHANGES.

345 AM FRI UPDATE... SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A MARINE LYR CLOUD DECK
SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND FROM NJ/ERN PA ATTM. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD...THESE CLDS WILL ONLY HAVE A LIMITED OPPORTUNITY TO
MAKE MORE INROADS TO THE N AND W EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH AN ERODING
TREND BACK TWDS THE COAST ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNRISE. OTHWS...WE
SHOULD SEE MORNING SUNSHINE FADING BEHIND THICKENING MID AND HIGH-
LVL CLOUD COVER DURG THE AFTN.

A WEAK SFC BNDRY STRETCHED FROM LAKE HURON SWD THROUGH ERN LWR MI
AND NWRN OH AS ABT 08Z. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THIS FEATURE
MOVG EWD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVE...PUSHED ALG BY A S/WV
SEEN OVER THE UPR MIDWEST ATTM. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
CONVERGENCE ALG THE SFC FRNT...OVERALL DYNAMIC SUPPORT APPEARS
TO BE MEAGER...AND THE MOISTURE SUPPLY IS ALSO LIMITED.
THUS...WE`LL ONLY ADVERTISE THE PSBLTY OF SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA
AFTER ABT 18Z IN OUR FAR NRN/WRN ZNS. ANY ADDTNL LGT PCPN SHOULD
HOLD OFF TIL THIS EVE FARTHER S AND E.

FURTHER 925-850 MB WAA TDY SHOULD HELP PROPEL READINGS CLOSE TO 60
IN OUR LAKE PLAIN AREAS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RANGING IN THE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
4 AM FRI UPDATE... THE ABV MENTIONED WEAK COLD FRNT IS SLATED TO
COME ACRS THE CWA IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME THIS EVE...GENERALLY
ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY HIT AND MISS SPRINKLES/-SHRA IN CNY...AND LTL
OR NO PCPN IN NE PA.

LOW-LVL CAA LATE TNT AND SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE BLO A DVLPG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD RESULT IN A POST-FRNTL SC DECK IN PTNS
OF CNY...ALG WITH A FEW RESIDUAL SPRINKLES/FLRYS. ONLY PTLY CLDY
CONDS ARE LIKELY FARTHER S THROUGH NE PA.

A LARGE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD ACRS NY/PA FROM CNTRL/SRN ONT OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WX SAT THROUGH SUN. ANY EARLY
MRNG CLDS SAT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE BY
AFTN...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SAT NGT...AND SUNNY CONDS
SUN. HIGHS SAT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN THEY WILL BE
TDY...MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S MOST LOCALES. A RETURN WAA FLOW
DVLPS AGN ON SUN...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH
OF OUR NEXT COLD FRNT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...WE`VE KEPT SUN NGT
DRY...WITH JUST SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE IN OUR NRN/WRN
ZNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY FOR MON NGT AND HV PULLED POPS
DOWN TO SLGT CHC CWA-WIDE WITH LKLY POPS FOR TUE AS FNT COMES
THRU. LINGERING PCPN EXPECTED TUE NGT AS UL TROF SWINGS THRU. 12Z
GFS INDICATES H5 LOW DVLPNG OVR THE COAST WHILE 00Z EURO KEEPS IT
AS AN OPEN WV. FOR THE TIME BEING HV GONE WITH CHC SHOWERS ON WED
FOR ERN SXNS.

1020MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FM THE WEST ON THUR LEADING TO DRY
WX THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD. HIGH TEMPS FOLLOWING FROPA ON WED
WL DROP TO BLO SEASONAL NORMS FOR A DAY AND THEN REBOUND UNDER
S/WV RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH TAF VALID TIME. MID-HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE BETWEEN 02 AND 07Z AT
KSYR AND KRME. FOLLOWING WEAK FRONT TONIGHT MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
BKN-OVC VFR CIGS ARND 5KFT BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AROUND 13Z WITH KELM AND KAVP SKC
AFTER THIS TIME.

WINDS AROUND 10KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL BECOME WNW FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
10 AM FRI UPDATE...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS TODAY (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 25-35%), SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH. 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE WILL TODAY
WILL BE UNDER 10 PERCENT.

LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIP TONIGHT MOSTLY IN NY SO 10
HOUR FUELS SHOULD BE BACK BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AGAIN WINDS UNDER 20 MPH SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. ATTM MONDAY WINDS
WILL BE BELOW 20 MPH BUT THIS COULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH. NEXT
CHANCE OF A SOAKING RAIN TUESDAY BUT MODEL TRENDS ARE TO DELAY
THIS.

SO THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY TO MONDAY WILL BE THE WINDS ON ANY
FLAGS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ/TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KALY 181737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY...WITH MORNING SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TRACKS EAST. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
TONIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT...MADE JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS PERSISTING ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT ARE TRANSPARENT ENOUGH TO MENTION PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THICKER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH 6 PM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AM. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A FAIR AMT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE SCARCE...WITH MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING IN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE GULF
COAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS. SO...AT THIS TIME WE ONLY EXPECT
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHICH MAY SPREAD AS FAR S AS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND
PERHAPS SOME UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN WOULD FALL...BUT ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS SOME COOLER AIR SEEPS
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT
MINS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH MAINLY MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE AS A BIT OF WIND...AND SOME CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS.

SAT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION SAT AM. AGAIN...SOME SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES COULD OCCUR WITH...OR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
REGION...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE SAT MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MIXING DEPTH SHOULD DEEPEN TO BETWEEN
875-850 MB...OR PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...WITH GENERALLY 50S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CATSKILLS AND ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...WHERE ONLY
40S ARE EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT COOL AIR ADVECTION.

SAT NT-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS.
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE CHILLY 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS SAT NT/SUN AM...WITH
PERHAPS SOME TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. A
QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...AS DEEP MIXING AND
SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALLOWS MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH 50S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
SOME PATCHY HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD REACH NW AREAS BY LATE
SUNDAY.

SUN NT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN
IN VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE AT
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
STRENGTH...EXACT PATH...AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO ONLY THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN SAT NT DUE TO SOME CLOUDS AND A
BREEZE...WITH MAINLY 30S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY IN MOST AREAS ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS NORTH AS FA WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS MAINE AND A
COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. THUS
MOST OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK WET WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACRS
THE FA SO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ON OUR DOOR STEP SO EXPECT DIMINISHING
WINDS AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...ANY LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AT KPOU HAVE ERODED
AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS
ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AND SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH A PASSING SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH AT KGFL FROM 06Z TO
12Z. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE...ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PRODUCE A
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS DECK IN THE 2-3 KFT RANGE....ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MVFR CEILINGS AT THIS
TIME. ANY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY ERODE BY 15Z AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS TONIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GUSTY AT
TIMES...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RH OF AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD GUST INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE
TO 15-25 MPH.

THE RH IS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE IN
VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL RECOVER INTO THE 75-85 PERCENT RANGE
TONIGHT...THEN FALL TO 20-30 PERCENT FOR SAT AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT...WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
AMTS REMAINING UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS AT MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT
FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/LFM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 181724
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
124 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A
NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 123 PM EDT FRIDAY...IT`S A LOVELY SPRING AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH TEMPS JUST ABOUT 50 DEGREES OR WARMER UNDER
FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH SCT-BKN CIRRUS DECK. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC...BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
EASTWARD INTO VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE A GREAT FRIDAY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 444 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY
CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW...WELL NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND NO MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY
SATURDAY MORNING. FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ON SATURDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LINGERING
THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT ENDED THERE EVEN BY
18Z. COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...KEEPING
SATURDAY COLDER THAN TODAY. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD
WITH TEMPS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY BUT WARMER AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
EASTWARD AND RETURN FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A SHOWERY PERIOD IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY TUE-WED NEXT WEEK AS
PATTERN AMPLIFIES NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A DIGGING LONG WAVE TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION SO
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THIS GENERAL
SOLUTION, BUT ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF DIGGING AND
EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST ON WED
AND HOW FAST IT PULLS AWAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET MONDAY UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT MAY BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
AREA. THIS MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWER TO NORTHERN AREAS ON
MONDAY SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE POP THERE. WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +4C
SHOULD HAVE HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

ON TUESDAY THE TROF REALLY DIGS IN WITH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST US. COOLER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN AS THE SLOW
SLIDES EAST BUT TUES EVENING. TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE THE HIGHEST POP OF THE PERIOD AND IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS
WILL BE 55 TO 60 ON TUE BEFORE COOLING OFF INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S AT NIGHT.

BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THIS LOW CONSOLIDATES SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST PUTTING OUR REGION INTO A COOLER AND MOIST
NORTHERLY FLOW. STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND AS IT DOES PULLS EVEN
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION SO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING EARLY THU WITH LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOW 40S.

THURSDAY SHOULD FEATURE CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGHS 55 TO 60 AS THE
UPPER TROF AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST AWAY FROM US AND RIDGING
ALOFT INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFT 00Z SAT ESPECIALLY
KMSS/KSLK THEN AFT 05Z KBTV/KPBG/KMPV/KRUT.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW AND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT TODAY DURING MIDDAY.

HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE
DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST NEARING
KMSS/KSLK BY 06Z SAT AND 12Z BTV. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR KMSS/KSLK
AFTER 00Z WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT
VSBY TOO MUCH EXCEPT BRIEFLY IFR VSBY IN -SHSN AT KSLK 8-12Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY....ANY -SHRA/SHRA ENDING THEN BECOMING
VFR WITH A COOL NW FLOW WITH G20-25 KTS MIDDAY.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON









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