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000
FXUS61 KALY 251146
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
746 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 657 AM EDT...SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT/PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. A STRONG H250 JET STREAK OF 125-150 KTS WILL
APPROACH WRN NY BY THE EARLY EVENING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE NEAR
THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OR CYCLONIC EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
STREAK. THE BEST QG LIFT FOR SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR SCT-
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE LATEST HIRES WRF BRINGS THE SHOWERS INTO
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI CITIES BTWN 19Z-22Z TODAY. THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS MOST OF THE REGION BTWN 00Z-06Z.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE AFTER THE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
H850 TEMPS OF +4C TO +7C WITH DECENT MIXING AND SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH U50S TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE
M60S WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH ENOUGH QG LIFT GENERATED
FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
IS UTILIZED. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY /100-300 J/KG/. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 6.5-7.5C/KM RANGE ON THE NAM/GFS. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL THUNDER FCST BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY
1. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS
AND ERN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY 18Z SUN...THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR
NRN ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL FAVOR BRISK
CONDITIONS WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SINCE A NOTICEABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TOWARDS
LABRADOR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME U30S TO L40S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY.

MON-MON NIGHT...MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS AS SFC HIGH RIDGES IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
H850 TEMPS SURGE BACK TO +6C TO +11C BY 00Z/TUE ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS
LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U30S OVER SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE
REGION SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH RETURNING. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET REINFORCED LATE IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES
IN THE GUIDANCE GROW AS THEY DEAL WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/SYSTEM.

MILD DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH BROAD/DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
REGION AS RIDGING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACH. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BIT COOLER
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY OFF TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL NEED TO SWING THROUGH.

A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FLAT AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORT WAVES. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 11-3.9 MICRONS SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES. KGFL HAS LIFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WITH KPSF IFR DUE TO STRATUS. AFTER SUNRISE
FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR BY THIS EVENING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED
HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH VCSH.

WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT WITH DIRECTION DRIVEN BY LOCAL EFFECTS.
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH A SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE IN SPEED
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/SND
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 251146
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
746 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 657 AM EDT...SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT/PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. A STRONG H250 JET STREAK OF 125-150 KTS WILL
APPROACH WRN NY BY THE EARLY EVENING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE NEAR
THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OR CYCLONIC EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
STREAK. THE BEST QG LIFT FOR SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR SCT-
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE LATEST HIRES WRF BRINGS THE SHOWERS INTO
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI CITIES BTWN 19Z-22Z TODAY. THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS MOST OF THE REGION BTWN 00Z-06Z.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE AFTER THE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
H850 TEMPS OF +4C TO +7C WITH DECENT MIXING AND SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH U50S TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE
M60S WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH ENOUGH QG LIFT GENERATED
FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
IS UTILIZED. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY /100-300 J/KG/. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 6.5-7.5C/KM RANGE ON THE NAM/GFS. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL THUNDER FCST BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY
1. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS
AND ERN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY 18Z SUN...THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR
NRN ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL FAVOR BRISK
CONDITIONS WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SINCE A NOTICEABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TOWARDS
LABRADOR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME U30S TO L40S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY.

MON-MON NIGHT...MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS AS SFC HIGH RIDGES IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
H850 TEMPS SURGE BACK TO +6C TO +11C BY 00Z/TUE ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS
LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U30S OVER SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE
REGION SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH RETURNING. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET REINFORCED LATE IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES
IN THE GUIDANCE GROW AS THEY DEAL WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/SYSTEM.

MILD DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH BROAD/DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
REGION AS RIDGING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACH. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BIT COOLER
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY OFF TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL NEED TO SWING THROUGH.

A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FLAT AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORT WAVES. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 11-3.9 MICRONS SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES. KGFL HAS LIFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WITH KPSF IFR DUE TO STRATUS. AFTER SUNRISE
FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR BY THIS EVENING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED
HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH VCSH.

WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT WITH DIRECTION DRIVEN BY LOCAL EFFECTS.
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH A SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE IN SPEED
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/SND
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 251140
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
740 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
MONDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...JUST AN UPDATE ON TEMPS/DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING
TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TODAY...SO EXPECT SUNNY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH W WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY WEAK WITH NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BREEZY ON
SUNDAY.

TONIGHT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER STARTS THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE COOLER ON MONDAY DUE TO MORE LIMITED MIXING. A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE SLOW DUE TO THE FRONT BECOMING
ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SINCE
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NW 5-10 KT THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING
10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 KT
WHILE BACKING TO W-WSW. WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND
FORECAST. UNCERTAINTY WITH END TIME OF GUSTS WHICH COULD LINGER A
FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.SUN-TUE...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT ON SUN-SUN EVE...HIGHEST NYC METRO.
.WED...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SCA TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS. A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT AND THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
WILL BE DEEPENING...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
WATERS AND POSSIBLY SOME GALES ACROSS THE OCEAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT WILL BE ON A GRADUAL LOWERING TREND LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON
MONDAY WHEN CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO SUB SCA LEVELS.
THESE CONDITIONS REMAIN SUB SCA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 251140
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
740 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
MONDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...JUST AN UPDATE ON TEMPS/DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING
TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TODAY...SO EXPECT SUNNY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH W WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY WEAK WITH NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BREEZY ON
SUNDAY.

TONIGHT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER STARTS THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE COOLER ON MONDAY DUE TO MORE LIMITED MIXING. A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE SLOW DUE TO THE FRONT BECOMING
ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SINCE
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NW 5-10 KT THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING
10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 KT
WHILE BACKING TO W-WSW. WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND
FORECAST. UNCERTAINTY WITH END TIME OF GUSTS WHICH COULD LINGER A
FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.SUN-TUE...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT ON SUN-SUN EVE...HIGHEST NYC METRO.
.WED...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SCA TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS. A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT AND THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
WILL BE DEEPENING...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
WATERS AND POSSIBLY SOME GALES ACROSS THE OCEAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT WILL BE ON A GRADUAL LOWERING TREND LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON
MONDAY WHEN CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO SUB SCA LEVELS.
THESE CONDITIONS REMAIN SUB SCA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 251139
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
739 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND HIGHER SUMMIT SNOW
SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 721 AM EDT SATURDAY...MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER
THROUGH THE DAY BASED OFF LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND RAP 850 MB
RH PROGS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MID CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN NY WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PRIOR INDICATIONS. STILL LOOKING AT A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL SUN
HOWEVER. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS DEFAULT SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SKIRTS QUICKLY THROUGH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THUS AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
UNDER LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. 925 MB THERMAL PROFILES AT 18 UTC AVERAGE
7 TO 10C OR SO...SO ADDING THE TYPICAL 7-8C FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AUTUMNAL (OR VERNAL) SEASONAL PERIOD SUPPORTS HIGHS
RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING RATHER VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE AREA WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PVA AND HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. THUS
RUNNING IDEA OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NRN NY
COUNTIES...AND TOWARD EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT. THREAT
OF SHOWERS LOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...BY TONIGHT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE AS SHORTWAVE AND UPPER ENERGY DROPS INTO THE REGION...ESP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTH. AS FLOW TRENDS WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT
LATER TONIGHT...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3000 FT OR SO
WITH PCPN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW AT THE SUMMIT LEVEL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BELOW THE 2000
FT LEVEL. BEING OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN...SYSTEM WILL HAVE ONLY
MODEST MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER SO NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING
PARTICULARLY HEAVY.

BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CYCLONIC WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS.  FLOW WILL BECOME BLOCKED OVER TIME SUCH
THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MTNS WHERE SOME LIGHT ADDL SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ABOVE 2500 FT OR SO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 7 TO 12 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY...OR GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

BY MONDAY STILL GOOD CONSISTENCY AMONG THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL
SOLUTIONS IN SHOWING MODERATELY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGING TO BEGIN
PUSHING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW. STILL SOME LINGERING/VRB
CLOUDS...ESP NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE A BRIEF
SPRINKLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF THE DAY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DRY ELSEWHERE. HIGHS A BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTING VALUES FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...OR WITHIN 2 DEG OF
LATE OCTOBER SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 403 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL IDEA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING WITH THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND
565DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +11C SUPPORTING
HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT
INTENSIFIES AND A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING COLD FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY WITH ECMWF STILL A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. BASED ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BELIEVE THE ECMWF IS ON THE RIGHT PATH SO HAVE LEANED IN
THAT DIRECTIONS OFFERING A FROPA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH
THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
DRY WITH ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WE`LL RETURN TO MORE FALL-
LIKE TEMPS WITH THE 540DM THICKNESS LINE WELL SOUTH OF THE BTV
CWA AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S
AND 30S. THERE`S SOME UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP PROBS FOR HALLOWEEN AT
THIS TIME AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE SAID TROUGH DIFFERENTLY.
HAVE TRENDED DRY FOR NOW...BUT THE JURY IS STILL OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME SCT CIRRUS
THIS MORNING WILL TREND TOWARDS A BKN-OVC VFR DECK THIS AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS INTO THE REGION. KSLK IS CURRENTLY UNDER A
DENSE LIFR STRATUS DECK...WHICH WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE NEXT
2 HOURS...LIFTING INTO A VFR DECK. A SHORT 1-3HR PERIOD OF
SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...BUT EXPECT VSBY TO REMAIN VFR MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR. CIGS WILL
LOWER AREA-WIDE TO MVFR DURING PRECIP AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH TO WEST- SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECOND ROUND OF VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND AN EXITING FRONT ON NORTHWEST FLOW.

12Z MONDAY - 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251139
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
739 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND HIGHER SUMMIT SNOW
SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 721 AM EDT SATURDAY...MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER
THROUGH THE DAY BASED OFF LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND RAP 850 MB
RH PROGS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MID CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN NY WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PRIOR INDICATIONS. STILL LOOKING AT A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL SUN
HOWEVER. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS DEFAULT SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SKIRTS QUICKLY THROUGH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THUS AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
UNDER LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. 925 MB THERMAL PROFILES AT 18 UTC AVERAGE
7 TO 10C OR SO...SO ADDING THE TYPICAL 7-8C FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AUTUMNAL (OR VERNAL) SEASONAL PERIOD SUPPORTS HIGHS
RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING RATHER VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE AREA WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PVA AND HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. THUS
RUNNING IDEA OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NRN NY
COUNTIES...AND TOWARD EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT. THREAT
OF SHOWERS LOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...BY TONIGHT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE AS SHORTWAVE AND UPPER ENERGY DROPS INTO THE REGION...ESP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTH. AS FLOW TRENDS WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT
LATER TONIGHT...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3000 FT OR SO
WITH PCPN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW AT THE SUMMIT LEVEL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BELOW THE 2000
FT LEVEL. BEING OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN...SYSTEM WILL HAVE ONLY
MODEST MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER SO NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING
PARTICULARLY HEAVY.

BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CYCLONIC WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS.  FLOW WILL BECOME BLOCKED OVER TIME SUCH
THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MTNS WHERE SOME LIGHT ADDL SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ABOVE 2500 FT OR SO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 7 TO 12 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY...OR GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

BY MONDAY STILL GOOD CONSISTENCY AMONG THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL
SOLUTIONS IN SHOWING MODERATELY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGING TO BEGIN
PUSHING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW. STILL SOME LINGERING/VRB
CLOUDS...ESP NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE A BRIEF
SPRINKLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF THE DAY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DRY ELSEWHERE. HIGHS A BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTING VALUES FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...OR WITHIN 2 DEG OF
LATE OCTOBER SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 403 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL IDEA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING WITH THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND
565DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +11C SUPPORTING
HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT
INTENSIFIES AND A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING COLD FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY WITH ECMWF STILL A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. BASED ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BELIEVE THE ECMWF IS ON THE RIGHT PATH SO HAVE LEANED IN
THAT DIRECTIONS OFFERING A FROPA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH
THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
DRY WITH ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WE`LL RETURN TO MORE FALL-
LIKE TEMPS WITH THE 540DM THICKNESS LINE WELL SOUTH OF THE BTV
CWA AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S
AND 30S. THERE`S SOME UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP PROBS FOR HALLOWEEN AT
THIS TIME AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE SAID TROUGH DIFFERENTLY.
HAVE TRENDED DRY FOR NOW...BUT THE JURY IS STILL OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME SCT CIRRUS
THIS MORNING WILL TREND TOWARDS A BKN-OVC VFR DECK THIS AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS INTO THE REGION. KSLK IS CURRENTLY UNDER A
DENSE LIFR STRATUS DECK...WHICH WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE NEXT
2 HOURS...LIFTING INTO A VFR DECK. A SHORT 1-3HR PERIOD OF
SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...BUT EXPECT VSBY TO REMAIN VFR MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR. CIGS WILL
LOWER AREA-WIDE TO MVFR DURING PRECIP AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH TO WEST- SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECOND ROUND OF VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND AN EXITING FRONT ON NORTHWEST FLOW.

12Z MONDAY - 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251121
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND HIGHER SUMMIT SNOW
SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 721 AM EDT SATURDAY...MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER
THROUGH THE DAY BASED OFF LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND RAP 850 MB
RH PROGS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MID CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN NY WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PRIOR INDICATIONS. STILL LOOKING AT A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL SUN
HOWEVER. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS DEFAULT SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SKIRTS QUICKLY THROUGH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THUS AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
UNDER LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. 925 MB THERMAL PROFILES AT 18 UTC AVERAGE
7 TO 10C OR SO...SO ADDING THE TYPICAL 7-8C FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AUTUMNAL (OR VERNAL) SEASONAL PERIOD SUPPORTS HIGHS
RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING RATHER VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE AREA WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PVA AND HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. THUS
RUNNING IDEA OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NRN NY
COUNTIES...AND TOWARD EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT. THREAT
OF SHOWERS LOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...BY TONIGHT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE AS SHORTWAVE AND UPPER ENERGY DROPS INTO THE REGION...ESP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTH. AS FLOW TRENDS WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT
LATER TONIGHT...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3000 FT OR SO
WITH PCPN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW AT THE SUMMIT LEVEL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BELOW THE 2000
FT LEVEL. BEING OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN...SYSTEM WILL HAVE ONLY
MODEST MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER SO NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING
PARTICULARLY HEAVY.

BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CYCLONIC WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS.  FLOW WILL BECOME BLOCKED OVER TIME SUCH
THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MTNS WHERE SOME LIGHT ADDL SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ABOVE 2500 FT OR SO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 7 TO 12 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY...OR GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

BY MONDAY STILL GOOD CONSISTENCY AMONG THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL
SOLUTIONS IN SHOWING MODERATELY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGING TO BEGIN
PUSHING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW. STILL SOME LINGERING/VRB
CLOUDS...ESP NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE A BRIEF
SPRINKLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF THE DAY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DRY ELSEWHERE. HIGHS A BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTING VALUES FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...OR WITHIN 2 DEG OF
LATE OCTOBER SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 403 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL IDEA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING WITH THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND
565DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +11C SUPPORTING
HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT
INTENSIFIES AND A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING COLD FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY WITH ECMWF STILL A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. BASED ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BELIEVE THE ECMWF IS ON THE RIGHT PATH SO HAVE LEANED IN
THAT DIRECTIONS OFFERING A FROPA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH
THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
DRY WITH ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WE`LL RETURN TO MORE FALL-
LIKE TEMPS WITH THE 540DM THICKNESS LINE WELL SOUTH OF THE BTV
CWA AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S
AND 30S. THERE`S SOME UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP PROBS FOR HALLOWEEN AT
THIS TIME AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE SAID TROUGH DIFFERENTLY.
HAVE TRENDED DRY FOR NOW...BUT THE JURY IS STILL OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNDER SOME FEW-SCT CIRRUS WITH
IFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK THROUGH 11-12Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MVFR CIGS
ARE PROGRESSING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO SHIFT INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER 14Z...BUT BREAK UP COMING INTO VERMONT
WHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL. A SHORT 3-HR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA...BUT EXPECT
VSBY TO REMAIN VFR MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR. CIGS WILL LOWER AREA-WIDE
TO MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECOND ROUND OF VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND AN EXITING FRONT ON NORTHWEST FLOW.

12Z MONDAY - 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251121
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND HIGHER SUMMIT SNOW
SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 721 AM EDT SATURDAY...MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER
THROUGH THE DAY BASED OFF LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND RAP 850 MB
RH PROGS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MID CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN NY WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PRIOR INDICATIONS. STILL LOOKING AT A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL SUN
HOWEVER. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS DEFAULT SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SKIRTS QUICKLY THROUGH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THUS AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
UNDER LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. 925 MB THERMAL PROFILES AT 18 UTC AVERAGE
7 TO 10C OR SO...SO ADDING THE TYPICAL 7-8C FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AUTUMNAL (OR VERNAL) SEASONAL PERIOD SUPPORTS HIGHS
RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING RATHER VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE AREA WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PVA AND HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. THUS
RUNNING IDEA OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NRN NY
COUNTIES...AND TOWARD EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT. THREAT
OF SHOWERS LOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...BY TONIGHT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE AS SHORTWAVE AND UPPER ENERGY DROPS INTO THE REGION...ESP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTH. AS FLOW TRENDS WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT
LATER TONIGHT...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3000 FT OR SO
WITH PCPN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW AT THE SUMMIT LEVEL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BELOW THE 2000
FT LEVEL. BEING OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN...SYSTEM WILL HAVE ONLY
MODEST MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER SO NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING
PARTICULARLY HEAVY.

BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CYCLONIC WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS.  FLOW WILL BECOME BLOCKED OVER TIME SUCH
THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MTNS WHERE SOME LIGHT ADDL SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ABOVE 2500 FT OR SO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 7 TO 12 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY...OR GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

BY MONDAY STILL GOOD CONSISTENCY AMONG THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL
SOLUTIONS IN SHOWING MODERATELY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGING TO BEGIN
PUSHING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW. STILL SOME LINGERING/VRB
CLOUDS...ESP NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE A BRIEF
SPRINKLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF THE DAY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DRY ELSEWHERE. HIGHS A BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTING VALUES FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...OR WITHIN 2 DEG OF
LATE OCTOBER SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 403 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL IDEA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING WITH THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND
565DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +11C SUPPORTING
HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT
INTENSIFIES AND A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING COLD FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY WITH ECMWF STILL A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. BASED ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BELIEVE THE ECMWF IS ON THE RIGHT PATH SO HAVE LEANED IN
THAT DIRECTIONS OFFERING A FROPA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH
THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
DRY WITH ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WE`LL RETURN TO MORE FALL-
LIKE TEMPS WITH THE 540DM THICKNESS LINE WELL SOUTH OF THE BTV
CWA AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S
AND 30S. THERE`S SOME UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP PROBS FOR HALLOWEEN AT
THIS TIME AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE SAID TROUGH DIFFERENTLY.
HAVE TRENDED DRY FOR NOW...BUT THE JURY IS STILL OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNDER SOME FEW-SCT CIRRUS WITH
IFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK THROUGH 11-12Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MVFR CIGS
ARE PROGRESSING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO SHIFT INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER 14Z...BUT BREAK UP COMING INTO VERMONT
WHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL. A SHORT 3-HR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA...BUT EXPECT
VSBY TO REMAIN VFR MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR. CIGS WILL LOWER AREA-WIDE
TO MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECOND ROUND OF VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND AN EXITING FRONT ON NORTHWEST FLOW.

12Z MONDAY - 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBUF 251106
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
706 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS. COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL BE COOLER WITH BRISK WINDS. A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY
AS A VERY ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL CHARGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG H25 JET OF 145KTS (RETURN
INTERVAL OF ONCE IN A 10-20 YR PERIOD) WILL ACCOMPANY THE DIGGING
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...LEADING TO A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH AND
EVENTUAL CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOCUSING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT FOR THE EXPECTED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

AS WAS EXCELLENTLY DESCRIBED IN A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SHARP MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG DPVA AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A 150+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET AND AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
PWAT VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MORE
THAN AMPLE FOR LATE FALL. THIS SHOULD ALL COME TOGETHER WITH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A 3 HOUR
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LIFTED INDEX DROPS
TO -1C TO -3C DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...AND THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING
MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. FARTHER
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
MUCH WEAKER...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND BEHIND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH THE FRONTAL
INVERSION.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY TODAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER WHERE
BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEMES SUGGEST SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN THE
35-40 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDY...THE STRONG SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL ADVECT A NARROW
TONGUE OF 7/8C H85 TEMPS ACROSS OUR REGION...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
AFTERNOON TEMPS OF 60 TO 65...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
10 TO 15 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MUCH CHILLIER AIR WILL POUR ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. H85 TEMPS WILL DROP TO ARND -1C AND
THIS WILL BE ESTABLISH ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER LAKE ONTARIO TO
SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TUG HILL.
THE MESOSCALE BASED PCPN WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE PASSING OF A VERY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO `BLOSSOM` NORTHWARDS TOWARDS THE THOUSAND ISLANDS.
WHILE THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ABV 10K FT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH
ZONE TO PRODUCE SOME WET FLAKES. THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE
PROFILE THOUGH SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH ABV FREEZING TO ALLOW ANY SNOW
TO MELT. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS THE TUG HILL WHERE SOME WET
SNOW COULD MIX IN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FROM ADDING THIS TO THE
PACKAGE.

OFF LK ERIE...THERE WILL BE A SERIOUS LACK OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ABV
5K FT SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUD
COVER. ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...TONIGHT WILL FEATURE BRISK
WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MEANDER ITS
WAY EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A COOL WESTERLY TO
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH LAKE
AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO AREAS
EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING...FOR
WHICH POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO CATEGORICAL GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE SETUP. AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN
CONJUNCTION WITH BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN
THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND BEING INCREASINGLY DRIVEN MORE
BY LAKE AND OROGRAPHIC PROCESSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
EVENTUALLY DYING OUT ALTOGETHER SUNDAY NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH JUST A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SHOWERS. EXPECT A
BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF GOOD MECHANICAL MIXING
AND 850 MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO -2C YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S IN MOST PLACES...FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS AND TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

DURING MONDAY...THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE DEVELOPING COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES PUSHES ITS ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION. AT THIS JUNCTURE...EXPECT THIS LATTER
FEATURE TO APPROACH SLOWLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY...THOUGH
THE OVERALL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GENERAL
WEST TO EAST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER TIME...PARTICULARLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN SPITE OF THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...OUR
AIRMASS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND THE 60
DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...
WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN COOLER WITH HIGHS REMAINING
CONFINED TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN WHILE
BODILY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE...AND IN
THE PROCESS WILL DRIVE ITS WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF
A DEVELOPING 30-35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROBABLY BRING AT LEAST A LOWER-END RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...FOR WHICH SOME
CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE OVERALL WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN MONDAY
NIGHT BEING NOTICEABLY MILDER COMPARED TO ITS PREDECESSOR...WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE MID
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE DEEPENING LOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD
APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
GENERALLY TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AGAIN WITH THE 00Z/25 CYCLE...WHILE
ALSO STILL EXHIBITING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT A LITTLE BIT FROM OUR PREVIOUS CONTINUITY...WHILE ALSO
KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN ITS TIMING.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THESE LOOK AS IF THEY MAY REALLY SOAR
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY. WITH 925 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AS
HIGH AS +14C TO +18C IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AT THIS POINT FEEL THAT HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO
AROUND 70 OR SO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE LOWER TO EVEN
MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHOULD SUCH READINGS ACTUALLY COME TO
FRUITION...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER FOR OCTOBER
28TH (74/1946 AND 76/1984 RESPECTIVELY) COULD BE CLOSELY
APPROACHED...WHILE WATERTOWN`S RECORD HIGH (75/1984) WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY TO REMAIN SAFE. AFTER THAT...READINGS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT`S COLD FRONT...BROAD LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHING AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH READINGS
EVENTUALLY FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. MORE SPECIFICALLY...DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER
40S BY FRIDAY...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS PULL BACK TO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH JUST SOME NUISANCE
WEAK LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS FOUND EAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. AFTER THIS...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON SOME SEMBLANCE OF ANOTHER WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM
AFFECTING OUR REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE DETAILS VARY
FROM ONE PACKAGE TO THE NEXT. NONETHELESS...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE
INTO A RENEWED GENERAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN TIME FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN
PLAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTHWARDS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PRE DAWN HOURS...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF
WRN NEW YORK.

A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST AND
CROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BULK OF THE
DAY...CIGS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN SHOWERS DURING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IT WILL BECOME RATHER WINDY TODAY AS WELL WITH SOUTHWEST
SFC WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NEW YORK. THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF LK ONTARIO THOUGH...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR KART AND KGTB.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF
THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL FRESHEN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
OVER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ERIE WHERE A RELATIVELY
TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ENCOURAGE WINDS
TO REACH 30 KNOTS...WITH SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS LONGER TO INCREASE ON LAKE
ONTARIO...ESPECIALLY EAST OF ROCHESTER.

TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ON LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF.

THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON BOTH LAKES MONDAY AS THE SFC
RIDGE PASSES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM
         EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
         MONDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 251106
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
706 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS. COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL BE COOLER WITH BRISK WINDS. A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY
AS A VERY ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL CHARGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG H25 JET OF 145KTS (RETURN
INTERVAL OF ONCE IN A 10-20 YR PERIOD) WILL ACCOMPANY THE DIGGING
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...LEADING TO A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH AND
EVENTUAL CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOCUSING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT FOR THE EXPECTED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

AS WAS EXCELLENTLY DESCRIBED IN A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SHARP MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG DPVA AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A 150+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET AND AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
PWAT VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MORE
THAN AMPLE FOR LATE FALL. THIS SHOULD ALL COME TOGETHER WITH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A 3 HOUR
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LIFTED INDEX DROPS
TO -1C TO -3C DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...AND THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING
MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. FARTHER
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
MUCH WEAKER...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND BEHIND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH THE FRONTAL
INVERSION.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY TODAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER WHERE
BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEMES SUGGEST SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN THE
35-40 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDY...THE STRONG SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL ADVECT A NARROW
TONGUE OF 7/8C H85 TEMPS ACROSS OUR REGION...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
AFTERNOON TEMPS OF 60 TO 65...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
10 TO 15 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MUCH CHILLIER AIR WILL POUR ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. H85 TEMPS WILL DROP TO ARND -1C AND
THIS WILL BE ESTABLISH ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER LAKE ONTARIO TO
SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TUG HILL.
THE MESOSCALE BASED PCPN WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE PASSING OF A VERY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO `BLOSSOM` NORTHWARDS TOWARDS THE THOUSAND ISLANDS.
WHILE THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ABV 10K FT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH
ZONE TO PRODUCE SOME WET FLAKES. THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE
PROFILE THOUGH SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH ABV FREEZING TO ALLOW ANY SNOW
TO MELT. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS THE TUG HILL WHERE SOME WET
SNOW COULD MIX IN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FROM ADDING THIS TO THE
PACKAGE.

OFF LK ERIE...THERE WILL BE A SERIOUS LACK OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ABV
5K FT SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUD
COVER. ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...TONIGHT WILL FEATURE BRISK
WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MEANDER ITS
WAY EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A COOL WESTERLY TO
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH LAKE
AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO AREAS
EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING...FOR
WHICH POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO CATEGORICAL GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE SETUP. AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN
CONJUNCTION WITH BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN
THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND BEING INCREASINGLY DRIVEN MORE
BY LAKE AND OROGRAPHIC PROCESSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
EVENTUALLY DYING OUT ALTOGETHER SUNDAY NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH JUST A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SHOWERS. EXPECT A
BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF GOOD MECHANICAL MIXING
AND 850 MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO -2C YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S IN MOST PLACES...FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS AND TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

DURING MONDAY...THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE DEVELOPING COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES PUSHES ITS ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION. AT THIS JUNCTURE...EXPECT THIS LATTER
FEATURE TO APPROACH SLOWLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY...THOUGH
THE OVERALL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GENERAL
WEST TO EAST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER TIME...PARTICULARLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN SPITE OF THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...OUR
AIRMASS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND THE 60
DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...
WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN COOLER WITH HIGHS REMAINING
CONFINED TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN WHILE
BODILY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE...AND IN
THE PROCESS WILL DRIVE ITS WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF
A DEVELOPING 30-35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROBABLY BRING AT LEAST A LOWER-END RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...FOR WHICH SOME
CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE OVERALL WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN MONDAY
NIGHT BEING NOTICEABLY MILDER COMPARED TO ITS PREDECESSOR...WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE MID
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE DEEPENING LOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD
APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
GENERALLY TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AGAIN WITH THE 00Z/25 CYCLE...WHILE
ALSO STILL EXHIBITING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT A LITTLE BIT FROM OUR PREVIOUS CONTINUITY...WHILE ALSO
KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN ITS TIMING.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THESE LOOK AS IF THEY MAY REALLY SOAR
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY. WITH 925 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AS
HIGH AS +14C TO +18C IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AT THIS POINT FEEL THAT HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO
AROUND 70 OR SO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE LOWER TO EVEN
MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHOULD SUCH READINGS ACTUALLY COME TO
FRUITION...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER FOR OCTOBER
28TH (74/1946 AND 76/1984 RESPECTIVELY) COULD BE CLOSELY
APPROACHED...WHILE WATERTOWN`S RECORD HIGH (75/1984) WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY TO REMAIN SAFE. AFTER THAT...READINGS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT`S COLD FRONT...BROAD LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHING AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH READINGS
EVENTUALLY FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. MORE SPECIFICALLY...DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER
40S BY FRIDAY...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS PULL BACK TO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH JUST SOME NUISANCE
WEAK LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS FOUND EAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. AFTER THIS...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON SOME SEMBLANCE OF ANOTHER WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM
AFFECTING OUR REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE DETAILS VARY
FROM ONE PACKAGE TO THE NEXT. NONETHELESS...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE
INTO A RENEWED GENERAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN TIME FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN
PLAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTHWARDS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PRE DAWN HOURS...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF
WRN NEW YORK.

A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST AND
CROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BULK OF THE
DAY...CIGS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN SHOWERS DURING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IT WILL BECOME RATHER WINDY TODAY AS WELL WITH SOUTHWEST
SFC WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NEW YORK. THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF LK ONTARIO THOUGH...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR KART AND KGTB.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF
THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL FRESHEN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
OVER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ERIE WHERE A RELATIVELY
TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ENCOURAGE WINDS
TO REACH 30 KNOTS...WITH SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS LONGER TO INCREASE ON LAKE
ONTARIO...ESPECIALLY EAST OF ROCHESTER.

TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ON LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF.

THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON BOTH LAKES MONDAY AS THE SFC
RIDGE PASSES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM
         EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
         MONDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH








000
FXUS61 KALY 251057
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 657 AM EDT...SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT/PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. A STRONG H250 JET STREAK OF 125-150 KTS WILL
APPROACH WRN NY BY THE EARLY EVENING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE NEAR
THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OR CYCLONIC EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
STREAK. THE BEST QG LIFT FOR SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR SCT-
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE LATEST HIRES WRF BRINGS THE SHOWERS INTO
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI CITIES BTWN 19Z-22Z TODAY. THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS MOST OF THE REGION BTWN 00Z-06Z.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE AFTER THE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
H850 TEMPS OF +4C TO +7C WITH DECENT MIXING AND SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH U50S TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE
M60S WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH ENOUGH QG LIFT GENERATED
FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
IS UTILIZED. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY /100-300 J/KG/. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 6.5-7.5C/KM RANGE ON THE NAM/GFS. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL THUNDER FCST BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY
1. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS
AND ERN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY 18Z SUN...THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR
NRN ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL FAVOR BRISK
CONDITIONS WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SINCE A NOTICEABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TOWARDS
LABRADOR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME U30S TO L40S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY.

MON-MON NIGHT...MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS AS SFC HIGH RIDGES IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
H850 TEMPS SURGE BACK TO +6C TO +11C BY 00Z/TUE ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS
LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U30S OVER SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE
REGION SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH RETURNING. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET REINFORCED LATE IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES
IN THE GUIDANCE GROW AS THEY DEAL WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/SYSTEM.

MILD DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH BROAD/DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
REGION AS RIDGING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACH. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BIT COOLER
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY OFF TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL NEED TO SWING THROUGH.

A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FLAT AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORT WAVES. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 11-3.9 MICRONS SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES. KGFL HAS LIFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WITH KPSF DUE TO STRATUS. AFTER SUNRISE FOG
AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR BY THIS EVENING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED
HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH VCSH.

WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT WITH DIRECTION DRIVEN BY LOCAL EFFECTS.
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH A SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS
EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 251057
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 657 AM EDT...SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT/PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. A STRONG H250 JET STREAK OF 125-150 KTS WILL
APPROACH WRN NY BY THE EARLY EVENING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE NEAR
THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OR CYCLONIC EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
STREAK. THE BEST QG LIFT FOR SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR SCT-
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE LATEST HIRES WRF BRINGS THE SHOWERS INTO
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI CITIES BTWN 19Z-22Z TODAY. THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS MOST OF THE REGION BTWN 00Z-06Z.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE AFTER THE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
H850 TEMPS OF +4C TO +7C WITH DECENT MIXING AND SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH U50S TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE
M60S WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH ENOUGH QG LIFT GENERATED
FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
IS UTILIZED. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY /100-300 J/KG/. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 6.5-7.5C/KM RANGE ON THE NAM/GFS. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL THUNDER FCST BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY
1. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS
AND ERN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY 18Z SUN...THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR
NRN ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL FAVOR BRISK
CONDITIONS WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SINCE A NOTICEABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TOWARDS
LABRADOR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME U30S TO L40S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY.

MON-MON NIGHT...MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS AS SFC HIGH RIDGES IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
H850 TEMPS SURGE BACK TO +6C TO +11C BY 00Z/TUE ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS
LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U30S OVER SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE
REGION SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH RETURNING. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET REINFORCED LATE IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES
IN THE GUIDANCE GROW AS THEY DEAL WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/SYSTEM.

MILD DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH BROAD/DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
REGION AS RIDGING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACH. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BIT COOLER
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY OFF TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL NEED TO SWING THROUGH.

A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FLAT AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORT WAVES. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 11-3.9 MICRONS SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES. KGFL HAS LIFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WITH KPSF DUE TO STRATUS. AFTER SUNRISE FOG
AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR BY THIS EVENING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED
HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH VCSH.

WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT WITH DIRECTION DRIVEN BY LOCAL EFFECTS.
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH A SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS
EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBGM 251023
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
623 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL INITIALLY KEEP THINGS DRY AND MILD
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...BUT A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
NORTH OF THE TWIN TIERS. BEHIND THE FRONT IT WILL BE BLUSTERY AND
COOLER SUNDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK. DRY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER PASSING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
620 AM UPDATE...
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS WITH QUICKER ADVANCEMENT OF CLOUDS
ACROSS WESTERN TO CENTRAL ZONES ONGOING...ALSO ACCORDINGLY ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURE GRIDS. ALL ELSE ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE A PRE- FRONTAL
TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING /MAINLY NORTH/ ON AN
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION...AND IT IS NOT EXACTLY THE CLEANEST CONSIDERING THE
MOISTURE THAT IS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. A LAYER OF CLOUDS AT 4-6 KFT AGL
THROUGHOUT W NY/NW PA IS NOW SPREADING EAST INCLUDING SYRACUSE TO
PENN YAN SO FAR...EN ROUTE TO MOST OF OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING
THOSE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. SO PERHAPS MORE
CLOUDS THAN ORIGINALLY FIGURED FOR TODAY...YET WITH WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE BRINGING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING TROUGH
/WITH GUSTS INTO 15-25 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/...WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN MIXING IN AS WELL DURING THE DAY AS WE GET BRIEFLY
INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL REALIZE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

MODELS ARE WELL AGREED ON PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THEN PASSING THROUGH
FROM 4PM WNW TO 9PM ENE. IT WILL DO SO WITH LIMITED SHALLOW
MOISTURE...AND THUS GAPPY LIGHT SHOWERS. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE IN CENTRAL NY WITH AID OF LAKE MOISTURE AND STRONGER
DYNAMICS. IN FACT...MODEL SOUNDINGS /NAM IN PARTICULAR/ SHOW
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AND THERE HAVE ALREADY ACTUALLY BEEN
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT IN FAR WESTERN ONTARIO
/NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR/. THUS I ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO
ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY. IN THE TWIN
TIERS...SHOWERS WILL BE HIT-OR-MISS SCATTERED...SPRINKLES MAY BE
THE MORE APPROPRIATE TERM. SOUTHERN REACHES OF OUR AREA INCLUDING
THE WYOMING VALLEY PA MAY GET NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL FROM THIS
SYSTEM.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...VORTICITY LOBE ROUNDS THE TRANSIENT UPPER LOW MOVING
THROUGH QUEBEC...AND WHAT CAN BE CONSIDERED THE REAL COLD FRONT
WILL QUICKLY BLAST THROUGH THE AREA WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
RESULTING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS 850MB TEMPERATURES OVERTAKING OUR
AREA 06Z-12Z SUNDAY. AND WITH THAT...THE INTRODUCTION OF LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NY THRUWAY
CORRIDOR...NORTHWESTERN CATSKILLS...AND MOHAWK VALLEY-TUG HILL
PLATEAU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
COOL BLUSTERY DAY SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS...THEN QUIET MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED WELL THROUGH THE AREA BY DAWN SUNDAY.
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY SUBZERO SUNDAY...MEANWHILE
LAKE ONTARIO WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL 12-14 CELSIUS. THIS COLD
AIR ALOFT WITH STOUT WNW FLOW OFF OF LAKES HURON AND ONTARIO
SUNDAY...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING LAKE-MODIFIED AIR MASS
MIXING TO AT LEAST 10 KFT AGL...WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO
YIELD CLOUDS LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND EXTENDING TO SOME OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...EVEN A
BIT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING. INDEED...THE 85OMB RIDGE DOES
NOT EVEN REACH US UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH...MOISTURE
WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...SO A GOOD
AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS FIGURED SUNDAY...THEN SOME DIMINISHING OF
IT SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A LOT OF MIXING
SUNDAY WILL YIELD 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
AND DRY WEATHER. THOUGH REMAINS OF LAKE STRATOCUMULUS WILL FALL
APART...HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT WARM FRONT WILL ALSO ALREADY BE
STREAMING IN OUT OF THE WEST. WE WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE...BUT HOW
WIDE THAT WINDOW OF IT WILL BE IS UNCERTAIN. THEN VERY MILD MONDAY
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT AND CLOUDS PASS OVERHEAD...THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
125 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM MVG IN
TUE NGT INTO WED MRNG. WHILE GFS HAS COME ON BOARD WITH EC
REGARDING TIMING OF FROPA LATE TUE NGT, LATEST CMC IS SLOWER AND
DOES NOT BRING FROPA THRU UNTIL WED MRNG. EITHER WAY, HV GONE WITH
WPC GUIDANCE FOR SYSTEM WITH CHC SHOWERS. NW FLOW WL FOLLOW SYSTEM
AS IT PUSHES INTO EASTERN CANADA, SETTING THE STAGE FOR LK EFFECT
SHOWERS UNTIL HIPRES BUILDS IN ON THUR.

TEMPS WL CLIMB WELL ABV NORMAL ON TUE AHD OF SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 70S DRG THE AFTN. CDFNT PASSAGE WL
QUICKLY DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TWD NORMAL VALUES THRU THE END OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z SAT UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
ABT 00Z SUN. THE EXCEPTION IS KRME...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH LATE MRNG (14-15Z).

BY EARLY THIS EVE...A SOLID MVFR CLOUD DECK SHOULD ENTER UPSTATE
NY...IMPACTING KSYR AND KRME. FARTHER S...VFR SHOULD REMAIN THE
RULE...ALTHOUGH SPOTTY MVFR CIGS CAN`T BE RULED OUT AT
KITH/KELM/KBGM...SPCLY TWDS DAYBREAK. SPOTTY -SHRA ARE ALSO
FORESEEN...BUT VSBY`S SHUD REMAIN AOA 6SM.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 14-16Z...SHOULD PICK UP OUT OF THE W OR
SW FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN (GUSTS OF 20-25 KT ARE LIKELY). WINDS
SHOULD VEER INTO THE NW LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVE.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL IN THE MRNG...SPCLY KSYR AND KRME.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

WED...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...MLJ







000
FXUS61 KBGM 251020
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
620 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL INITIALLY KEEP THINGS DRY AND MILD
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...BUT A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
NORTH OF THE TWIN TIERS. BEHIND THE FRONT IT WILL BE BLUSTERY AND
COOLER SUNDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK. DRY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER PASSING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING /MAINLY NORTH/ ON AN
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION...AND IT IS NOT EXACTLY THE CLEANEST CONSIDERING THE
MOISTURE THAT IS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. A LAYER OF CLOUDS AT 4-6 KFT AGL
THROUGHOUT W NY/NW PA IS NOW SPREADING EAST INCLUDING SYRACUSE TO
PENN YAN SO FAR...EN ROUTE TO MOST OF OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING
THOSE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. SO PERHAPS MORE
CLOUDS THAN ORIGINALLY FIGURED FOR TODAY...YET WITH WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE BRINGING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING TROUGH
/WITH GUSTS INTO 15-25 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/...WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN MIXING IN AS WELL DURING THE DAY AS WE GET BRIEFLY
INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL REALIZE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

MODELS ARE WELL AGREED ON PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THEN PASSING THROUGH
FROM 4PM WNW TO 9PM ENE. IT WILL DO SO WITH LIMITED SHALLOW
MOISTURE...AND THUS GAPPY LIGHT SHOWERS. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE IN CENTRAL NY WITH AID OF LAKE MOISTURE AND STRONGER
DYNAMICS. IN FACT...MODEL SOUNDINGS /NAM IN PARTICULAR/ SHOW
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AND THERE HAVE ALREADY ACTUALLY BEEN
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT IN FAR WESTERN ONTARIO
/NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR/. THUS I ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO
ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY. IN THE TWIN
TIERS...SHOWERS WILL BE HIT-OR-MISS SCATTERED...SPRINKLES MAY BE
THE MORE APPROPRIATE TERM. SOUTHERN REACHES OF OUR AREA INCLUDING
THE WYOMING VALLEY PA MAY GET NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL FROM THIS
SYSTEM.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...VORTICITY LOBE ROUNDS THE TRANSIENT UPPER LOW MOVING
THROUGH QUEBEC...AND WHAT CAN BE CONSIDERED THE REAL COLD FRONT
WILL QUICKLY BLAST THROUGH THE AREA WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
RESULTING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS 850MB TEMPERATURES OVERTAKING OUR
AREA 06Z-12Z SUNDAY. AND WITH THAT...THE INTRODUCTION OF LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NY THRUWAY
CORRIDOR...NORTHWESTERN CATSKILLS...AND MOHAWK VALLEY-TUG HILL
PLATEAU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
COOL BLUSTERY DAY SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS...THEN QUIET MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED WELL THROUGH THE AREA BY DAWN SUNDAY.
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY SUBZERO SUNDAY...MEANWHILE
LAKE ONTARIO WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL 12-14 CELSIUS. THIS COLD
AIR ALOFT WITH STOUT WNW FLOW OFF OF LAKES HURON AND ONTARIO
SUNDAY...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING LAKE-MODIFIED AIR MASS
MIXING TO AT LEAST 10 KFT AGL...WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO
YIELD CLOUDS LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND EXTENDING TO SOME OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...EVEN A
BIT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING. INDEED...THE 85OMB RIDGE DOES
NOT EVEN REACH US UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH...MOISTURE
WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...SO A GOOD
AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS FIGURED SUNDAY...THEN SOME DIMINISHING OF
IT SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A LOT OF MIXING
SUNDAY WILL YIELD 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
AND DRY WEATHER. THOUGH REMAINS OF LAKE STRATOCUMULUS WILL FALL
APART...HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT WARM FRONT WILL ALSO ALREADY BE
STREAMING IN OUT OF THE WEST. WE WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE...BUT HOW
WIDE THAT WINDOW OF IT WILL BE IS UNCERTAIN. THEN VERY MILD MONDAY
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT AND CLOUDS PASS OVERHEAD...THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
125 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM MVG IN
TUE NGT INTO WED MRNG. WHILE GFS HAS COME ON BOARD WITH EC
REGARDING TIMING OF FROPA LATE TUE NGT, LATEST CMC IS SLOWER AND
DOES NOT BRING FROPA THRU UNTIL WED MRNG. EITHER WAY, HV GONE WITH
WPC GUIDANCE FOR SYSTEM WITH CHC SHOWERS. NW FLOW WL FOLLOW SYSTEM
AS IT PUSHES INTO EASTERN CANADA, SETTING THE STAGE FOR LK EFFECT
SHOWERS UNTIL HIPRES BUILDS IN ON THUR.

TEMPS WL CLIMB WELL ABV NORMAL ON TUE AHD OF SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 70S DRG THE AFTN. CDFNT PASSAGE WL
QUICKLY DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TWD NORMAL VALUES THRU THE END OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z SAT UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
ABT 00Z SUN. THE EXCEPTION IS KRME...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH LATE MRNG (14-15Z).

BY EARLY THIS EVE...A SOLID MVFR CLOUD DECK SHOULD ENTER UPSTATE
NY...IMPACTING KSYR AND KRME. FARTHER S...VFR SHOULD REMAIN THE
RULE...ALTHOUGH SPOTTY MVFR CIGS CAN`T BE RULED OUT AT
KITH/KELM/KBGM...SPCLY TWDS DAYBREAK. SPOTTY -SHRA ARE ALSO
FORESEEN...BUT VSBY`S SHUD REMAIN AOA 6SM.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 14-16Z...SHOULD PICK UP OUT OF THE W OR
SW FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN (GUSTS OF 20-25 KT ARE LIKELY). WINDS
SHOULD VEER INTO THE NW LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVE.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL IN THE MRNG...SPCLY KSYR AND KRME.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

WED...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...MLJ







000
FXUS61 KOKX 251018
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
618 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
MONDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...JUST AN UPDATE ON TEMPS/DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING TO
REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TODAY...SO EXPECT SUNNY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH W WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY WEAK WITH NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BREEZY ON
SUNDAY.

TONIGHT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER STARTS THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE COOLER ON MONDAY DUE TO MORE LIMITED MIXING. A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE SLOW DUE TO THE FRONT BECOMING
ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SINCE
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE NW 5-10 KT INTO THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING 10-15 KT
WITH SOME GUSTS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 KT WHILE BACKING
TO W-WSW. WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND
FORECAST. UNCERTAINTY WITH END TIME OF GUSTS WHICH COULD LINGER A
FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT ON
SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING...HIGHEST NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SCA TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS. A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT AND THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
WILL BE DEEPENING...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
WATERS AND POSSIBLY SOME GALES ACROSS THE OCEAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT WILL BE ON A GRADUAL LOWERING TREND LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON
MONDAY WHEN CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO SUB SCA LEVELS.
THESE CONDITIONS REMAIN SUB SCA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KALY 250901
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
501 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT...SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
A WEAK PRE FRONTAL THERMAL TROUGH OR SFC WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A STRONG H250 JET STREAK OF 125-150 KTS WILL
APPROACH WRN NY BY THE EARLY EVENING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE NEAR
THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OR CYCLONIC EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
STREAK. THE BEST QG LIFT FOR SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR SCT-
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS MOST OF THE REGION
BTWN 00Z-06Z.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE AFTER THE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
H850 TEMPS OF +4C TO +7C WITH DECENT MIXING AND SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH U50S TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE
M60S WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH ENOUGH QG LIFT GENERATED
FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
IS UTILIZED. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY /100-300 J/KG/. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 6.5-7.5C/KM RANGE ON THE NAM/GFS. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL THUNDER FCST BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY
1. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS
AND ERN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY 18Z SUN...THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR
NRN ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL FAVOR BRISK
CONDITIONS WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SINCE A NOTICEABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TOWARDS
LABRADOR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME U30S TO L40S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY.

MON-MON NIGHT...MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS AS SFC HIGH RIDGES IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
H850 TEMPS SURGE BACK TO +6C TO +11C BY 00Z/TUE ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS
LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U30S OVER SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE
REGION SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH RETURNING. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET REINFORCED LATE IN THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES
IN THE GUIDANCE GROW AS THEY DEAL WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/SYSTEM.

MILD DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH BROAD/DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
REGION AS RIDGING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACH. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BIT COOLER
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY OFF TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL NEED TO SWING THROUGH.

A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
ON THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FLAT AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORT WAVES. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TOUGH FORECAST THIS MORNING. HAVE HAD VARIABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO
RADIATIONAL FOG AND SOME STRATUS. WINDS ARE ALSO VARIABLE ACROSS THE
AREA. A BATCH OF CIRRUS CLOUDS HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. ALSO 11-3.9 MICRONS SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME
STRATUS HAS FORMED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
INTO THE BERKSHIRES. HAVE ADDRESSED CONCERNS WITH TEMPO GROUPS IN
TAFS. AFTER SUNRISE ANY FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING IN THE EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR BY THIS
EVENING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF
SHOWERS WITH VCSH.

WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT WITH DIRECTION AT THE TAF SITES DRIVEN BY
LOCAL EFFECTS. SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS DEVELOP AFTER 12Z WITH A SHIFT
MORE TO THE SOUTH AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING. THEN THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE
IN SPEED.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KOKX 250841
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
441 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
MONDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TODAY...SO EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH W WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST.

DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY WEAK WITH NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BREEZY ON
SUNDAY.

TONIGHT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER STARTS THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE COOLER ON MONDAY DUE TO MORE LIMITED MIXING. A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE SLOW DUE TO THE FRONT BECOMING
ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SINCE
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE NW 5-10 KT INTO THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING 10-15 KT
WITH SOME GUSTS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 KT WHILE BACKING
TO W-WSW. WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND
FORECAST. UNCERTAINTY WITH END TIME OF GUSTS WHICH COULD LINGER A
FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT ON
SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING...HIGHEST NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SCA TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS. A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT AND THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
WILL BE DEEPENING...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
WATERS AND POSSIBLY SOME GALES ACROSS THE OCEAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT WILL BE ON A GRADUAL LOWERING TREND LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON
MONDAY WHEN CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO SUB SCA LEVELS.
THESE CONDITIONS REMAIN SUB SCA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KALY 250837
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT...SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
A WEAK PRE FRONTAL THERMAL TROUGH OR SFC WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A STRONG H250 JET STREAK OF 125-150 KTS WILL
APPROACH WRN NY BY THE EARLY EVENING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE NEAR
THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OR CYCLONIC EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
STREAK. THE BEST QG LIFT FOR SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR SCT-
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS MOST OF THE REGION
BTWN 00Z-06Z.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE AFTER THE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
H850 TEMPS OF +4C TO +7C WITH DECENT MIXING AND SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH U50S TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE
M60S WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH ENOUGH QG LIFT GENERATED
FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
IS UTILIZED. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY /100-300 J/KG/. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 6.5-7.5C/KM RANGE ON THE NAM/GFS. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL THUNDER FCST BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY
1. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS
AND ERN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY 18Z SUN...THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR
NRN ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL FAVOR BRISK
CONDITIONS WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SINCE A NOTICEABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TOWARDS
LABRADOR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME U30S TO L40S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY.

MON-MON NIGHT...MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS AS SFC HIGH RIDGES IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
H850 TEMPS SURGE BACK TO +6C TO +11C BY 00Z/TUE ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS
LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U30S OVER SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT BECOMING UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT
ALSO TREND COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TOUGH FORECAST THIS MORNING. HAVE HAD VARIABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO
RADIATIONAL FOG AND SOME STRATUS. WINDS ARE ALSO VARIABLE ACROSS THE
AREA. A BATCH OF CIRRUS CLOUDS HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. ALSO 11-3.9 MICRONS SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME
STRATUS HAS FORMED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
INTO THE BERKSHIRES. HAVE ADDRESSED CONCERNS WITH TEMPO GROUPS IN
TAFS. AFTER SUNRISE ANY FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING IN THE EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR BY THIS
EVENING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF
SHOWERS WITH VCSH.

WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT WITH DIRECTION AT THE TAF SITES DRIVEN BY
LOCAL EFFECTS. SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS DEVELOP AFTER 12Z WITH A SHIFT
MORE TO THE SOUTH AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING. THEN THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE
IN SPEED.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBGM 250823
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
423 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL INITIALLY KEEP THINGS DRY AND MILD
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...BUT A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
NORTH OF THE TWIN TIERS. BEHIND THE FRONT IT WILL BE BLUSTERY AND
COOLER SUNDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK. DRY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER PASSING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING /MAINLY NORTH/ ON AN
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION...AND IT IS NOT EXACTLY THE CLEANEST CONSIDERING THE
MOISTURE THAT IS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. A LAYER OF CLOUDS AT 4-6 KFT AGL
THROUGHOUT W NY/NW PA IS NOW SPREADING EAST INCLUDING SYRACUSE TO
PENN YAN SO FAR...EN ROUTE TO MOST OF OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING
THOSE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. SO PERHAPS MORE
CLOUDS THAN ORIGINALLY FIGURED FOR TODAY...YET WITH WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE BRINGING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING TROUGH
/WITH GUSTS INTO 15-25 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/...WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN MIXING IN AS WELL DURING THE DAY AS WE GET BRIEFLY
INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL REALIZE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

MODELS ARE WELL AGREED ON PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THEN PASSING THROUGH
FROM 4PM WNW TO 9PM ENE. IT WILL DO SO WITH LIMITED SHALLOW
MOISTURE...AND THUS GAPPY LIGHT SHOWERS. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE IN CENTRAL NY WITH AID OF LAKE MOISTURE AND STRONGER
DYNAMICS. IN FACT...MODEL SOUNDINGS /NAM IN PARTICULAR/ SHOW
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AND THERE HAVE ALREADY ACTUALLY BEEN
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT IN FAR WESTERN ONTARIO
/NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR/. THUS I ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO
ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY. IN THE TWIN
TIERS...SHOWERS WILL BE HIT-OR-MISS SCATTERED...SPRINKLES MAY BE
THE MORE APPROPRIATE TERM. SOUTHERN REACHES OF OUR AREA INCLUDING
THE WYOMING VALLEY PA MAY GET NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL FROM THIS
SYSTEM.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...VORTICITY LOBE ROUNDS THE TRANSIENT UPPER LOW MOVING
THROUGH QUEBEC...AND WHAT CAN BE CONSIDERED THE REAL COLD FRONT
WILL QUICKLY BLAST THROUGH THE AREA WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
RESULTING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS 850MB TEMPERATURES OVERTAKING OUR
AREA 06Z-12Z SUNDAY. AND WITH THAT...THE INTRODUCTION OF LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NY THRUWAY
CORRIDOR...NORTHWESTERN CATSKILLS...AND MOHAWK VALLEY-TUG HILL
PLATEAU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
COOL BLUSTERY DAY SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS...THEN QUIET MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED WELL THROUGH THE AREA BY DAWN SUNDAY.
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY SUBZERO SUNDAY...MEANWHILE
LAKE ONTARIO WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL 12-14 CELSIUS. THIS COLD
AIR ALOFT WITH STOUT WNW FLOW OFF OF LAKES HURON AND ONTARIO
SUNDAY...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING LAKE-MODIFIED AIR MASS
MIXING TO AT LEAST 10 KFT AGL...WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO
YIELD CLOUDS LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND EXTENDING TO SOME OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...EVEN A
BIT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING. INDEED...THE 85OMB RIDGE DOES
NOT EVEN REACH US UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH...MOISTURE
WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...SO A GOOD
AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS FIGURED SUNDAY...THEN SOME DIMINISHING OF
IT SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A LOT OF MIXING
SUNDAY WILL YIELD 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
AND DRY WEATHER. THOUGH REMAINS OF LAKE STRATOCUMULUS WILL FALL
APART...HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT WARM FRONT WILL ALSO ALREADY BE
STREAMING IN OUT OF THE WEST. WE WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE...BUT HOW
WIDE THAT WINDOW OF IT WILL BE IS UNCERTAIN. THEN VERY MILD MONDAY
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT AND CLOUDS PASS OVERHEAD...THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
125 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM MVG IN
TUE NGT INTO WED MRNG. WHILE GFS HAS COME ON BOARD WITH EC
REGARDING TIMING OF FROPA LATE TUE NGT, LATEST CMC IS SLOWER AND
DOES NOT BRING FROPA THRU UNTIL WED MRNG. EITHER WAY, HV GONE WITH
WPC GUIDANCE FOR SYSTEM WITH CHC SHOWERS. NW FLOW WL FOLLOW SYSTEM
AS IT PUSHES INTO EASTERN CANADA, SETTING THE STAGE FOR LK EFFECT
SHOWERS UNTIL HIPRES BUILDS IN ON THUR.

TEMPS WL CLIMB WELL ABV NORMAL ON TUE AHD OF SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 70S DRG THE AFTN. CDFNT PASSAGE WL
QUICKLY DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TWD NORMAL VALUES THRU THE END OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SAT UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THIS PD
(THROUGH 06Z SUN). PSBL EXCEPTIONS ARE KRME AND KSYR...WHERE A
RELATIVELY BRIEF PD OF MVFR CIGS IS PSBL LTR THIS AFTN INTO THE
EVE HRS...AS A SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE RGN. SPOTTY -SHRA MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THIS WX FEATURE...BUT VSBY`S SHUD REMAIN AOA 6SM.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-15Z...SHOULD PICK UP OUT OF THE W OR
SW FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN PD (GUSTS OF 20-25 KT ARE LIKELY). WINDS
SHOULD VEER INTO THE NW LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVE.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL IN THE MRNG...SPCLY KSYR AND KRME.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

WED...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ







000
FXUS61 KBUF 250814
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
414 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS. COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL BE COOLER WITH BRISK WINDS. A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY
AS A VERY ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL CHARGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG H25 JET OF 145KTS (RETURN
INTERVAL OF ONCE IN A 10-20 YR PERIOD) WILL ACCOMPANY THE DIGGING
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...LEADING TO A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH AND
EVENTUAL CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOCUSING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT FOR THE EXPECTED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

AS WAS EXCELLENTLY DESCRIBED IN A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SHARP MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG DPVA AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A 150+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET AND AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
PWAT VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MORE
THAN AMPLE FOR LATE FALL. THIS SHOULD ALL COME TOGETHER WITH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A 3 HOUR
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LIFTED INDEX DROPS
TO -1C TO -3C DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...AND THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING
MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. FARTHER
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
MUCH WEAKER...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND BEHIND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH THE FRONTAL
INVERSION.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY TODAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER WHERE
BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEMES SUGGEST SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN THE
35-40 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDY...THE STRONG SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL ADVECT A NARROW
TONGUE OF 7/8C H85 TEMPS ACROSS OUR REGION...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
AFTERNOON TEMPS OF 60 TO 65...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
10 TO 15 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MUCH CHILLIER AIR WILL POUR ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. H85 TEMPS WILL DROP TO ARND -1C AND
THIS WILL BE ESTABLISH ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER LAKE ONTARIO TO
SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TUG HILL.
THE MESOSCALE BASED PCPN WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE PASSING OF A VERY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO `BLOSSOM` NORTHWARDS TOWARDS THE THOUSAND ISLANDS.
WHILE THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ABV 10K FT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH
ZONE TO PRODUCE SOME WET FLAKES. THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE
PROFILE THOUGH SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH ABV FREEZING TO ALLOW ANY SNOW
TO MELT. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS THE TUG HILL WHERE SOME WET
SNOW COULD MIX IN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FROM ADDING THIS TO THE
PACKAGE.

OFF LK ERIE...THERE WILL BE A SERIOUS LACK OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ABV
5K FT SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUD
COVER. ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...TONIGHT WILL FEATURE BRISK
WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MEANDER ITS
WAY EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A COOL WESTERLY TO
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH LAKE
AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO AREAS
EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING...FOR
WHICH POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO CATEGORICAL GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE SETUP. AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN
CONJUNCTION WITH BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN
THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND BEING INCREASINGLY DRIVEN MORE
BY LAKE AND OROGRAPHIC PROCESSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
EVENTUALLY DYING OUT ALTOGETHER SUNDAY NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH JUST A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SHOWERS. EXPECT A
BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF GOOD MECHANICAL MIXING
AND 850 MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO -2C YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S IN MOST PLACES...FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS AND TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

DURING MONDAY...THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE DEVELOPING COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES PUSHES ITS ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION. AT THIS JUNCTURE...EXPECT THIS LATTER
FEATURE TO APPROACH SLOWLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY...THOUGH
THE OVERALL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GENERAL
WEST TO EAST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER TIME...PARTICULARLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN SPITE OF THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...OUR
AIRMASS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND THE 60
DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...
WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN COOLER WITH HIGHS REMAINING
CONFINED TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN WHILE
BODILY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE...AND IN
THE PROCESS WILL DRIVE ITS WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF
A DEVELOPING 30-35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROBABLY BRING AT LEAST A LOWER-END RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...FOR WHICH SOME
CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE OVERALL WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN MONDAY
NIGHT BEING NOTICEABLY MILDER COMPARED TO ITS PREDECESSOR...WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE MID
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE DEEPENING LOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD
APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
GENERALLY TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AGAIN WITH THE 00Z/25 CYCLE...WHILE
ALSO STILL EXHIBITING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT A LITTLE BIT FROM OUR PREVIOUS CONTINUITY...WHILE ALSO
KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN ITS TIMING.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THESE LOOK AS IF THEY MAY REALLY SOAR
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY. WITH 925 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AS
HIGH AS +14C TO +18C IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AT THIS POINT FEEL THAT HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO
AROUND 70 OR SO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE LOWER TO EVEN
MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHOULD SUCH READINGS ACTUALLY COME TO
FRUITION...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER FOR OCTOBER
28TH (74/1946 AND 76/1984 RESPECTIVELY) COULD BE CLOSELY
APPROACHED...WHILE WATERTOWN`S RECORD HIGH (75/1984) WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY TO REMAIN SAFE. AFTER THAT...READINGS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT`S COLD FRONT...BROAD LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHING AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH READINGS
EVENTUALLY FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. MORE SPECIFICALLY...DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER
40S BY FRIDAY...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS PULL BACK TO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH JUST SOME NUISANCE
WEAK LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS FOUND EAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. AFTER THIS...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON SOME SEMBLANCE OF ANOTHER WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM
AFFECTING OUR REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE DETAILS VARY
FROM ONE PACKAGE TO THE NEXT. NONETHELESS...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE
INTO A RENEWED GENERAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN TIME FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN
PLAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTHWARDS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PRE DAWN HOURS...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER (KJHW/KELZ).

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST AND CROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE BULK OF THE DAY...CIGS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

IT WILL BECOME RATHER WINDY AS WELL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE TAF
SITES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NEW YORK. THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LK ONTARIO THOUGH...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KART AND KGTB.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF
THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL FRESHEN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
OVER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ERIE WHERE A RELATIVELY
TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ENCOURAGE WINDS
TO REACH 30 KNOTS...WITH SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS LONGER TO INCREASE ON LAKE
ONTARIO...ESPECIALLY EAST OF ROCHESTER.

TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ON LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF.

THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON BOTH LAKES MONDAY AS THE SFC
RIDGE PASSES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM
         EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
         MONDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 250805
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
405 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND HIGHER SUMMIT SNOW
SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY
AS DEFAULT SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS QUICKLY THROUGH AND EAST OF
THE REGION. THUS AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. 925 MB
THERMAL PROFILES AT 18 UTC AVERAGE 7 TO 10C OR SO...SO ADDING THE
TYPICAL 7-8C FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AUTUMNAL (OR VERNAL)
SEASONAL PERIOD SUPPORTS HIGHS RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 ACROSS OUR
AREA TODAY. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING RATHER VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PVA AND
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. THUS RUNNING IDEA OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS STILL APPEARS ON TRACK BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES...AND TOWARD EARLY EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN VT. THREAT OF SHOWERS LOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...BY TONIGHT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE AS SHORTWAVE AND UPPER ENERGY DROPS INTO THE REGION...ESP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTH. AS FLOW TRENDS WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT
LATER TONIGHT...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3000 FT OR SO
WITH PCPN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW AT THE SUMMIT LEVEL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BELOW THE 2000
FT LEVEL. BEING OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN...SYSTEM WILL HAVE ONLY
MODEST MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER SO NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING
PARTICULARLY HEAVY.

BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CYCLONIC WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS.  FLOW WILL BECOME BLOCKED OVER TIME SUCH
THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MTNS WHERE SOME LIGHT ADDL SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ABOVE 2500 FT OR SO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 7 TO 12 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY...OR GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

BY MONDAY STILL GOOD CONSISTENCY AMONG THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL
SOLUTIONS IN SHOWING MODERATELY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGING TO BEGIN
PUSHING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW. STILL SOME LINGERING/VRB
CLOUDS...ESP NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE A BRIEF
SPRINKLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF THE DAY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DRY ELSEWHERE. HIGHS A BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTING VALUES FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...OR WITHIN 2 DEG OF
LATE OCTOBER SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 403 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL IDEA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING WITH THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND
565DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +11C SUPPORTING
HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT
INTENSIFIES AND A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING COLD FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY WITH ECMWF STILL A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. BASED ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BELIEVE THE ECMWF IS ON THE RIGHT PATH SO HAVE LEANED IN
THAT DIRECTIONS OFFERING A FROPA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH
THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
DRY WITH ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WE`LL RETURN TO MORE FALL-
LIKE TEMPS WITH THE 540DM THICKNESS LINE WELL SOUTH OF THE BTV
CWA AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S
AND 30S. THERE`S SOME UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP PROBS FOR HALLOWEEN AT
THIS TIME AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE SAID TROUGH DIFFERENTLY.
HAVE TRENDED DRY FOR NOW...BUT THE JURY IS STILL OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNDER SOME FEW-SCT CIRRUS WITH
IFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK THROUGH 11-12Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MVFR CIGS
ARE PROGRESSING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO SHIFT INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER 14Z...BUT BREAK UP COMING INTO VERMONT
WHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL. A SHORT 3-HR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA...BUT EXPECT
VSBY TO REMAIN VFR MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR. CIGS WILL LOWER AREA-WIDE
TO MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECOND ROUND OF VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND AN EXITING FRONT ON NORTHWEST FLOW.

12Z MONDAY - 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250804
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
404 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND HIGHER SUMMIT SNOW
SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY
AS DEFAULT SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS QUICKLY THROUGH AND EAST OF
THE REGION. THUS AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. 925 MB
THERMAL PROFILES AT 18 UTC AVERAGE 7 TO 10C OR SO...SO ADDING THE
TYPICAL 7-8C FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AUTUMNAL (OR VERNAL)
SEASONAL PERIOD SUPPORTS HIGHS RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 ACROSS OUR
AREA TODAY. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING RATHER VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PVA AND
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. THUS RUNNING IDEA OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS STILL APPEARS ON TRACK BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES...AND TOWARD EARLY EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN VT. THREAT OF SHOWERS LOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...BY TONIGHT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE AS SHORTWAVE AND UPPER ENERGY DROPS INTO THE REGION...ESP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTH. AS FLOW TRENDS WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT
LATER TONIGHT...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3000 FT OR SO
WITH PCPN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW AT THE SUMMIT LEVEL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BELOW THE 2000
FT LEVEL. BEING OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN...SYSTEM WILL HAVE ONLY
MODEST MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER SO NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING
PARTICULARLY HEAVY.

BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CYCLONIC WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS.  FLOW WILL BECOME BLOCKED OVER TIME SUCH
THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MTNS WHERE SOME LIGHT ADDL SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ABOVE 2500 FT OR SO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 7 TO 12 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY...OR GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

BY MONDAY STILL GOOD CONSISTENCY AMONG THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL
SOLUTIONS IN SHOWING MODERATELY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGING TO BEGIN
PUSHING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW. STILL SOME LINGERING/VRB
CLOUDS...ESP NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE A BRIEF
SPRINKLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF THE DAY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DRY ELSEWHERE. HIGHS A BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTING VALUES FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...OR WITHIN 2 DEG OF
LATE OCTOBER SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 403 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL IDEA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING WITH THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND
565DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +11C SUPPORTING
HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT
INTENSIFIES AND A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING COLD FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY WITH ECMWF STILL A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. BASED ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BELIEVE THE ECMWF IS ON THE RIGHT PATH SO HAVE LEANED IN
THAT DIRECTIONS OFFERING A FROPA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH
THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
DRY WITH ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WE`LL RETURN TO MORE FALL-
LIKE TEMPS WITH THE 540DM THICKNESS LINE WELL SOUTH OF THE BTV
CWA AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S
AND 30S. THERE`S SOME UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP PROBS FOR HALLOWEEN AT
THIS TIME AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE SAID TROUGH DIFFERENTLY.
HAVE TRENDED DRY FOR NOW...BUT THE JURY IS STILL OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNDER SOME FEW-SCT CIRRUS.
SOME MVFR BR WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH AT KMPV AND KSLK. HAVE BACKED
OFF ON IFR FOG AT THESE LOCATIONS BASED ON LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE
INDICATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINNING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
INCREASING ENOUGH TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...MVFR CIGS ARE PROGRESSING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THESE CIGS TO SHIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER 14Z...BUT BREAK
UP COMING INTO VERMONT WHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL. A SHORT 3-HR PERIOD
OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CWA...BUT EXPECT VSBY TO REMAIN VFR MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR. CIGS
WILL LOWER AREA-WIDE TO MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECOND ROUND OF VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND AN EXITING FRONT ON NORTHWEST FLOW.

12Z MONDAY - 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KOKX 250757
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
MONDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TODAY...SO EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH W WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST.

DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY WEAK WITH NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BREEZY ON
SUNDAY.

TONIGHT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER STARTS THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE COOLER ON MONDAY DUE TO MORE LIMITED MIXING. A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE SLOW DUE TO THE FRONT BECOMING
ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SINCE
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE NW 5-10 KT INTO THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING 10-15 KT
WITH SOME GUSTS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 KT WHILE BACKING
TO W-WSW. WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KT SAT NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT ON
SUNDAY...HIGHEST NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SCA TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS. A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT AND THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
WILL BE DEEPENING...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
WATERS AND POSSIBLY SOME GALES ACROSS THE OCEAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE ON A GRADUAL
LOWERING TREND LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MONDAY WHEN CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TO SUB SCA LEVELS. THESE CONDITIONS REMAIN SUB
SCA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KBTV 250730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND HIGHER SUMMIT SNOW
SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY
AS DEFAULT SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS QUICKLY THROUGH AND EAST OF
THE REGION. THUS AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. 925 MB
THERMAL PROFILES AT 18 UTC AVERAGE 7 TO 10C OR SO...SO ADDING THE
TYPICAL 7-8C FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AUTUMNAL (OR VERNAL)
SEASONAL PERIOD SUPPORTS HIGHS RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 ACROSS OUR
AREA TODAY. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING RATHER VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PVA AND
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. THUS RUNNING IDEA OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS STILL APPEARS ON TRACK BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES...AND TOWARD EARLY EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN VT. THREAT OF SHOWERS LOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...BY TONIGHT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE AS SHORTWAVE AND UPPER ENERGY DROPS INTO THE REGION...ESP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTH. AS FLOW TRENDS WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT
LATER TONIGHT...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3000 FT OR SO
WITH PCPN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW AT THE SUMMIT LEVEL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BELOW THE 2000
FT LEVEL. BEING OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN...SYSTEM WILL HAVE ONLY
MODEST MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER SO NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING
PARTICULARLY HEAVY.

BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CYCLONIC WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS.  FLOW WILL BECOME BLOCKED OVER TIME SUCH
THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MTNS WHERE SOME LIGHT ADDL SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ABOVE 2500 FT OR SO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 7 TO 12 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY...OR GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

BY MONDAY STILL GOOD CONSISTENCY AMONG THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL
SOLUTIONS IN SHOWING MODERATELY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGING TO BEGIN
PUSHING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW. STILL SOME LINGERING/VRB
CLOUDS...ESP NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FSCT AREA WHERE A BRIEF
SPRINKLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF THE DAY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DRY ELSEWHERE. HIGHS A BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTING VALUES FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...OR WITHIN 2 DEG OF
LATE OCTOBER SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 413 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON MONDAY AS THE REGION STILL
REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
WHILE THE GFS MODEL IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EAST OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODEL IS MUCH FASTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH THIS
COLD FRONT. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL WHICH BETTER FITS
PREVIOUS CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THEN
ACROSS VERMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD
FRONT EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA ON FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNDER SOME FEW-SCT CIRRUS.
SOME MVFR BR WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH AT KMPV AND KSLK. HAVE BACKED
OFF ON IFR FOG AT THESE LOCATIONS BASED ON LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE
INDICATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINNING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
INCREASING ENOUGH TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...MVFR CIGS ARE PROGRESSING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THESE CIGS TO SHIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER 14Z...BUT BREAK
UP COMING INTO VERMONT WHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL. A SHORT 3-HR PERIOD
OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CWA...BUT EXPECT VSBY TO REMAIN VFR MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR. CIGS
WILL LOWER AREA-WIDE TO MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECOND ROUND OF VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND AN EXITING FRONT ON NORTHWEST FLOW.

12Z MONDAY - 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 250559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TODAY.  THIS WILL BRING THE
THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRISK AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT...SFC ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
OH VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ARE ALLOW DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR. FOG
HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE GRIDDED/TEXT FORECASTS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN
RETRENDED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. SOME SITES HAVE FALLEN CLOSE TO
THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTED MINS /SRN VT/. LOWS NOW ARE EXPECTED
FROM THE MID 30 TO L40S ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVES INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION MAY ASSIST WITH
SHALLOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW.
SO THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS
OF THE DECK WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS INTO NW CT KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AT THE PRESENT TIME. AS MORE PEAKS OF SUN ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MIXING POTENTIAL...WE WILL WARM
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS /PERHAPS LOWER 60S
FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS/ AND LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLIDES WELL EAST OF THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED /AT BEST/. HOWEVER...THE COLD
UPPER LOW AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST /MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AT OR BELOW 0C BY
MORNING SO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MIXING OF SNOW.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE TRANSVERSING THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THE
OTHER METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
TAP INTO THE MID-UPR 30KT RANGE SO A RATHER BRISK DAY IS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH THE CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW-MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW TRACKS WELL EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST PER NCEP MODEL CONSENSUS. A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
SHOWER TREND DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH IMPROVING SKY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOS VALUES ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE /WITHIN 1-2 DEGREES/ AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT BECOMING UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT
ALSO TREND COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
FOG. CLOUD COVER HAS DECREASED AND WINDS ARE LIGHT OR HAVE GONE CALM
IN SOME LOCATIONS. A BATCH OF CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS TO ADDRESS
CONCERNS OF VISIBILITY BEING VARIABLE DUE TO THE FOG. ALREADY HAVE
IFR AND LOWER AT KGFL WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...OTHERWISE MVFR
EXPECTED WITH IFR POSSIBLE. AFTER SUNRISE ANY FOG BURNS OFF/LIFTS
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING IN THE EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR BY THIS
EVENING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED SO HAVE
ADDRESSED THREAT WITH VCSH.

WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT WITH DIRECTION AT THE TAF SITES DRIVEN BY
LOCAL EFFECTS. SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS DEVELOP AFTER 12Z WITH A SHIFT
MORE TO THE SOUTH AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING. SPEED OF LESS THAN 10
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THEN THE WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST WITH
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE IN SPEED.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE COOL AND WET
PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MOST OF SATURDAY. FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30MPH EXPECTED.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ..AND REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED DURING THE WEEKEND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV








000
FXUS61 KBUF 250558
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
158 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST BY
DAYBREAK. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND ARRIVES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER LAKES OVERNIGHT.
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHING EAST ACROSS FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN FEATURED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE FOR LATE OCTOBER THANKS TO THE APPROACHING CLOUD COVER AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER
40S IN THE COOLER MORE SHELTERED INTERIOR LOCATIONS. THE TUG HILL
MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

IN THE HOURS FOLLOWING DAYBREAK...THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST AND QUICKLY WEAKEN...
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARDS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
CROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG
DPVA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 150+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET AND AREA OF
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. PWAT VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MORE THAN AMPLE FOR LATE FALL. THIS SHOULD ALL COME
TOGETHER WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT
TO PRODUCE A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THE LIFTED INDEX DROPS TO -1C TO -3C DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH STRONG FORCING MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN WIDELY
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
BENEATH THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

A BRIEF WINDOW OF 850MB TEMPS AROUND +7C JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS...IN THE MID 60S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME OF THE WARMER
SPOTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES MAY REACH THE
UPPER 60S. IT WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO
ROCHESTER WHERE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEMES SUGGEST GUSTS IN
THE 35-40 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYS TWO SHORTWAVES...A
COMPACT SHORTWAVE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF LAKE  WINNIPEG...AND A
SECOND MORE BROAD WAVE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE KEY OVER THIS UPCOMING TIMEFRAME.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
SATURDAY...WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY THE
SATURDAY EVENING...THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD. ALOFT THE
SHORTWAVE WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE WAVE STILL CROSSING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. ANY
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY WILL END EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING...THOUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...AND UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WILL DROP TO AROUND
-1C OVER LAKE ONTARIO...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER LAKE ERIE. THE
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL BE UP TO 10-12K FEET AND THERE
WILL ALSO BE LITTLE WIND SHEAR. THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL AID TO DEVELOP A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN OVERNIGHT
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE GREATER AMBIENT SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
RESIDES.

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
FALL APART THROUGH THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE
SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST.

THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR QUIET AND
DRY CONDITIONS. LATER MONDAY MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHWARD
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION MAY BRING A SHOWER FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD TO
BRUSH BY FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL NOW BE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE ROCKIES WHERE IT WILL CARRY AND DEEPEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FROM NEAR IOWA MONDAY EVENING TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT STRENGTHENING ON THIS DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...AND LAKE ONTARIO REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND AREAS JUST TO THE EAST AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION.

AFTER THIS WARM FRONT PASSES...AND WITH DAYTIME MIXING THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. HIGH
CHANCES POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS PASS ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...AND AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS A FEW
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A WESTERLY FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL THIS TIME PERIOD...AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH
THE 40S...WITH WARMEST AREAS UNDER LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SUNDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...AND THAT AT LOW TO MID 50S.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION AND SKIES CLEAR...SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. AGAIN WARMEST
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME LINGER LOW CLOUDS
WILL RESIDE.

GRADUALLY WARMING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUCH THAT THERE MAY BE A FEW
70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE MODELS QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND PRECIPITATION...NEAR RECORD WARMTH SEEMS LESS LIKELY NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY THAN TUESDAY...WITH MID 50S COMMON.
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG
WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A WINDIER DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE
INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND SOUTH OF BUFFALO
TOWARD JAMESTOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY...WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ONLY AROUND 5K
FEET. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS
LOW...AND HAVE LEFT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR
THE HUDSON BAY SHIFTS NORTH AND EASTWARD. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTHWARDS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PRE DAWN HOURS...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER (KJHW/KELZ).

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST AND CROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE BULK OF THE DAY...CIGS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

IT WILL BECOME RATHER WINDY AS WELL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE TAF
SITES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NEW YORK. THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LK ONTARIO THOUGH...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KART AND KGTB.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF
THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON SATURDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE LOWER LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE ON BOTH LAKES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
THEN BECOME WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY INCREASE
FURTHER TO 30 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO DURING THAT TIME FRAME AS COLD
AIR DEEPENS AND PROMOTES STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
MIXING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE LOWER LAKES BY MONDAY AND BRING AN END TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM
         EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
         MONDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 250557
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
157 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL INITIALLY KEEP THINGS DRY AND MILD
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...BUT A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
NORTH OF THE TWIN TIERS. BEHIND THE FRONT IT WILL BE BLUSTERY AND
COOLER SUNDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK. DRY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER PASSING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 AM UPDATE...
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE NEAR TERM...ALBEIT OF LOW
IMPACT...WILL BE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING /MAINLY NORTH/ ON
AN OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION...AND IT IS NOT EXACTLY THE CLEANEST CONSIDERING THE
MOISTURE THAT IS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. THERE IS A LAYER OF CLOUDS AT 4-6
KFT AGL THROUGHOUT W NY/NW PA. THOSE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS
WEST OF I-81 AND ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH
WARM FRONT. SO PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN ORIGINALLY FIGURED FOR
TODAY...YET WITH MIXING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
TROUGH /WITH GUSTS INTO 15-25 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/...WE SHOULD
STILL SEE A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN DURING THE DAY AS WE GET
BRIEFLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL REALIZE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

MODELS ARE WELL AGREED ON PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THEN PASSING THROUGH
FROM 4PM WNW TO 9PM ENE. IT WILL DO SO WITH LIMITED SHALLOW
MOISTURE...AND THUS GAPPY LIGHT SHOWERS. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE IN CENTRAL NY WITH AID OF LAKE MOISTURE AND STRONGER
DYNAMICS. IN THE TWIN TIERS...SHOWERS WILL BE HIT-OR-MISS
SCATTERED. SOUTHERN REACHES OF OUR AREA INCLUDING THE WYOMING
VALLEY PA MAY GET NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL FROM THIS SYSTEM.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...VORTICITY LOBE ROUNDS THE TRANSIENT UPPER LOW MOVING
THROUGH QUEBEC...AND WHAT CAN BE CONSIDERED THE REAL COLD FRONT
WILL QUICKLY BLAST THROUGH THE AREA WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
RESULTING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS 850MB TEMPERATURES OVERTAKING OUR
AREA 06Z-12Z SUNDAY. AND WITH THAT...THE INTRODUCTION OF LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NY THRUWAY
CORRIDOR...NORTHWESTERN CATSKILLS...AND MOHAWK VALLEY-TUG HILL
PLATEAU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
225 PM EDT UPDATE...
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY POST FRONTAL AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE MSLP INCREASES ACROSS THE CWA.
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY LASTING THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL BECOME MORE FALL LIKE AS THE
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
125 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM MVG IN
TUE NGT INTO WED MRNG. WHILE GFS HAS COME ON BOARD WITH EC
REGARDING TIMING OF FROPA LATE TUE NGT, LATEST CMC IS SLOWER AND
DOES NOT BRING FROPA THRU UNTIL WED MRNG. EITHER WAY, HV GONE WITH
WPC GUIDANCE FOR SYSTEM WITH CHC SHOWERS. NW FLOW WL FOLLOW SYSTEM
AS IT PUSHES INTO EASTERN CANADA, SETTING THE STAGE FOR LK EFFECT
SHOWERS UNTIL HIPRES BUILDS IN ON THUR.

TEMPS WL CLIMB WELL ABV NORMAL ON TUE AHD OF SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 70S DRG THE AFTN. CDFNT PASSAGE WL
QUICKLY DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TWD NORMAL VALUES THRU THE END OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SAT UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THIS PD
(THROUGH 06Z SUN). PSBL EXCEPTIONS ARE KRME AND KSYR...WHERE A
RELATIVELY BRIEF PD OF MVFR CIGS IS PSBL LTR THIS AFTN INTO THE
EVE HRS...AS A SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE RGN. SPOTTY -SHRA MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THIS WX FEATURE...BUT VSBY`S SHUD REMAIN AOA 6SM.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-15Z...SHOULD PICK UP OUT OF THE W OR
SW FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN PD (GUSTS OF 20-25 KT ARE LIKELY). WINDS
SHOULD VEER INTO THE NW LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVE.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL IN THE MRNG...SPCLY KSYR AND KRME.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

WED...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ







000
FXUS61 KOKX 250544
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
144 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
BRIEF TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 09Z AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS. WINDS SHOULD RELAX
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN.

CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS LATE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LATE
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WINDOW...ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC LATE TONIGHT.

IF WINDS DECOUPLE EARLIER THAN PREDICTED TEMPS ACROSS OUTLYING
AREAS COULD DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES...LEADING TO PATCHY FROST
FORMATION IN INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PINE BARRENS. THIS IS A LOW
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONT.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S...WHILE
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 40S. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING SUNDAY.
ITS RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH DURING MONDAY...AND WILL BE OFFSHORE
ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER ALL THREE DAYS...BUT BREEZY ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY...BUT A LITTLE COOLER ON MONDAY
DUE TO MORE LIMITED MIXING. A RETURN FLOW WITH SW WINDS WILL HELP
PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMALS ON TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE SLOW DUE TO THE FRONT BECOMING
ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE DAYTIME HOURS OF WEDS HAVE THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

MODELS DIFFER FOR FRIDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS ECMWF WITH A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION. SUPPORT FROM
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE NOT GREAT SO FAR...BUT WORTH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE NW 5-10 KT INTO THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING 10-15 KT
WITH SOME GUSTS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 KT WHILE BACKING
TO W-WSW. WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KT SAT NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT ON
SUNDAY...HIGHEST NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY TIGHTENS THROUGH 09Z WITH GUSTS INTO
THE LOWER 20S ON OCEAN AND AROUND 20 ON NEARSHORE
WATERS...DIMINISHING TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVE...WITH SEAS AND
WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT. WILL ADJUST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
START A BIT EARLIER FOR ALL WATERS STARTING SAT EVENING AT
MIDNIGHT WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.

SCA CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS SUNDAY WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW. WINDS
THEN SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD...SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR ALL
WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SW RETURN FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT ON TUESDAY...BUT GUSTS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN COULD BE
MARGINALLY AT SCA LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC







000
FXUS61 KBTV 250541
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, GIVING WAY TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL RETURN
LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED
AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILD WEATHER IS IN
STORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT COMES THROUGH WITH
MORE SHOWERS FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1026 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT
YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL IS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
LATE THIS EVENING. THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS ON WESTERN FRINGE OF
700MB CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS OFFSHORE LOW THROUGH ABOUT
03-06Z TONIGHT...AFTER WHICH TIME A NARROW RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. THE LOSS OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME CLOSELY
MARKS THE BACK EDGE OF THE PREVAILING STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS EVIDENT
ON EVENING IR IMAGERY ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING. ANTICIPATE A SLOW BUT STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
CLEARING LINE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
THRU CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. SOME SCATTERED MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS LATE TONIGHT. ANY
LINGERING SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT WILL END BY 03Z
OR SO.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIVE
COOLING CYCLE EARLY...WITH SOME BETTER POTENTIAL LATE. GENERALLY
STAYED ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. LOCALLY NEAR 32F IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS
WITHIN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACK REGION.

THERE COULD BE A TOUCH OF FOG IN ANY LOCATION THAT HAS A FEW
HOURS OF CLEARING LATE, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE CHANGEABLE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. THOSE WANTING TO DO MORE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, ESPECIALLY
REQUIRING DRY WEATHER, SHOULD PLAN FOR SATURDAY. THOSE THAT WANT
TO GO SNOWFLAKE CHASING SHOULD PLAN FOR SUNDAY. KEEP READING FOR A
LITTLE MORE SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD,
SO WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SUN, HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH, MID/LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADVECT IN
WARMER AIR ALOFT. THIS, ALONG WITH SOME SUN, SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION -- ACTUALLY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 60S OFF TO OUR WEST IN ONTARIO, I HAVE SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES. COULD BE SOME LOWER 60S IN SOME VALLEY
REGIONS (DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH SUN WE SEE).

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL START STREAMING IN FROM WEST TO EAST, AND
SHOULD THICKEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS TO BEGIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH IS A FAST
MOVER, SO SHOWERS WILL REACH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING
AND THEN INTO EASTERN VERMONT NO LATER THAN MID-EVENING. DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN -- LESS THAN 1/4" SHOULD
DO IT.

SATURDAY NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT WITH FLOW
TURNING NORTHWEST AND DECENT AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
AND LARGER SCALE TROUGH STILL ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WE
SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BECOME MORE OROGRAPHICALLY LOCKED.
HAVE KEPT THE IDEA OF HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE GREENS AND `DACKS,
LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO COOL, SO
THAT WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST OF ELEVATIONS
(3500FT+) BY LATE. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER
UNIFORM -- LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AT ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST
FOLKS LIVE.

SUNDAY: ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ALOFT. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP THE OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION CONTINUING. SUSPECT
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO ABOUT 2500FT BY THE AFTERNOON, AND THERE
SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES AT LEAST AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH COLD AIR COMING
IN ALOFT, THIS WILL GENERATE PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES AS WELL,
ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING TO BRING DOWN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
ANTICIPATE IT TO BE BREEZY, WITH GUSTS TO 25MPH AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT: OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS FILTERING IN. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, SO THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME -- BUT THINK 30S WILL BE WIDESPREAD
EXCEPT LOW 40S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 413 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON MONDAY AS THE REGION STILL
REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
WHILE THE GFS MODEL IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EAST OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODEL IS MUCH FASTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH THIS
COLD FRONT. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL WHICH BETTER FITS
PREVIOUS CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THEN
ACROSS VERMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD
FRONT EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA ON FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNDER SOME FEW-SCT CIRRUS.
SOME MVFR BR WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH AT KMPV AND KSLK. HAVE BACKED
OFF ON IFR FOG AT THESE LOCATIONS BASED ON LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE
INDICATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINNING AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
INCREASING ENOUGH TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...MVFR CIGS ARE PROGRESSING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THESE CIGS TO SHIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER 14Z...BUT BREAK
UP COMING INTO VERMONT WHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL. A SHORT 3-HR PERIOD
OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CWA...BUT EXPECT VSBY TO REMAIN VFR MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR. CIGS
WILL LOWER AREA-WIDE TO MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECOND ROUND OF VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND AN EXITING FRONT ON NORTHWEST FLOW.

12Z MONDAY - 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 250537
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
137 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL INITIALLY KEEP THINGS DRY AND MILD
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...BUT A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
NORTH OF THE TWIN TIERS. BEHIND THE FRONT IT WILL BE BLUSTERY AND
COOLER SUNDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK. DRY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER PASSING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 AM UPDATE...
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE NEAR TERM...ALBEIT OF LOW
IMPACT...WILL BE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING /MAINLY NORTH/ ON
AN OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION...AND IT IS NOT EXACTLY THE CLEANEST CONSIDERING THE
MOISTURE THAT IS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. THERE IS A LAYER OF CLOUDS AT 4-6
KFT AGL THROUGHOUT W NY/NW PA. THOSE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS
WEST OF I-81 AND ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH
WARM FRONT. SO PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN ORIGINALLY FIGURED FOR
TODAY...YET WITH MIXING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
TROUGH /WITH GUSTS INTO 15-25 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/...WE SHOULD
STILL SEE A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN DURING THE DAY AS WE GET
BRIEFLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL REALIZE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

MODELS ARE WELL AGREED ON PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THEN PASSING THROUGH
FROM 4PM WNW TO 9PM ENE. IT WILL DO SO WITH LIMITED SHALLOW
MOISTURE...AND THUS GAPPY LIGHT SHOWERS. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE IN CENTRAL NY WITH AID OF LAKE MOISTURE AND STRONGER
DYNAMICS. IN THE TWIN TIERS...SHOWERS WILL BE HIT-OR-MISS
SCATTERED. SOUTHERN REACHES OF OUR AREA INCLUDING THE WYOMING
VALLEY PA MAY GET NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL FROM THIS SYSTEM.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...VORTICITY LOBE ROUNDS THE TRANSIENT UPPER LOW MOVING
THROUGH QUEBEC...AND WHAT CAN BE CONSIDERED THE REAL COLD FRONT
WILL QUICKLY BLAST THROUGH THE AREA WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
RESULTING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS 850MB TEMPERATURES OVERTAKING OUR
AREA 06Z-12Z SUNDAY. AND WITH THAT...THE INTRODUCTION OF LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NY THRUWAY
CORRIDOR...NORTHWESTERN CATSKILLS...AND MOHAWK VALLEY-TUG HILL
PLATEAU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
225 PM EDT UPDATE...
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY POST FRONTAL AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE MSLP INCREASES ACROSS THE CWA.
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY LASTING THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL BECOME MORE FALL LIKE AS THE
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
125 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM MVG IN
TUE NGT INTO WED MRNG. WHILE GFS HAS COME ONBOARD WITH EC
REGARDING TIMING OF FROPA LATE TUE NGT, LATEST CMC IS SLOWER AND
DOES NOT BRING FROPA THRU UNTIL WED MRNG. EITHER WAY, HV GONE WITH
WPC GUIDANCE FOR SYSTEM WITH CHC SHOWERS. NW FLOW WL FOLLOW SYSTEM
AS IT PUSHES INTO EASTERN CANADA, SETTING THE STAGE FOR LK EFFECT
SHOWERS UNTIL HIPRES BUILDS IN ON THUR.

TEMPS WL CLIMB WELL ABV NORMAL ON TUE AHD OF SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 70S DRG THE AFTN. CDFNT PASSAGE WL
QUICKLY DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TWD NORMAL VALUES THRU THE END OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR XPCTD THRU THE TAF PD. RDG OVHD THIS EVE SHD KEEP KSKIES
MAINLY CLR OTR THAN SOME HI CLDS THRU LATE NGT. TWRD MRNG...WV MVG
THRU THE GREAT LAKES WILL DVLP A LWR CLD DECK...ESP OVER THE NY
SITES...BUT GNRLY SHD REMAIN IN THE VFR CAT. A FEW VERY LGT SHWRS
ARE PSBL AS THE WV PASSES...BUT NOT ENUF TO LWR CIGS OR RESTRICT
VSBYS. DRIER AIR BHD THE WV ARRIVES BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-SUN...SPOTTY -SHRA WITH SAT EVE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL POST FRONTAL MVFR CIG INTO SUNDAY FOR NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...DGM/PVF







000
FXUS61 KALY 250526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.  A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TODAY.  THIS WILL BRING THE
THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRISK AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6AM EDT TODAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT...SFC ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
OH VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ARE ALLOW DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR. FOG
HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE GRIDDED/TEXT FORECASTS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN
RETRENDED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. SOME SITES HAVE FALLEN CLOSE TO
THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTED MINS /SRN VT/. LOWS NOW ARE EXPECTED
FROM THE MID 30 TO L40S ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVES INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION MAY ASSIST WITH
SHALLOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW.
SO THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS
OF THE DECK WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS INTO NW CT KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AT THE PRESENT TIME. AS MORE PEAKS OF SUN ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MIXING POTENTIAL...WE WILL WARM
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS /PERHAPS LOWER 60S
FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS/ AND LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLIDES WELL EAST OF THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED /AT BEST/. HOWEVER...THE COLD
UPPER LOW AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST /MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AT OR BELOW 0C BY
MORNING SO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MIXING OF SNOW.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE TRANSVERSING THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THE
OTHER METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
TAP INTO THE MID-UPR 30KT RANGE SO A RATHER BRISK DAY IS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH THE CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW-MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW TRACKS WELL EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST PER NCEP MODEL CONSENSUS. A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
SHOWER TREND DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH IMPROVING SKY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOS VALUES ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE /WITHIN 1-2 DEGREES/ AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT BECOMING UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT
ALSO TREND COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A VFR TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER SOME MVFR AND IFR IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY TONIGHT.

THE STORM WAS FINALLY COMPLETELY PULLING AWAY BUT IN ITS AWAKE WAS
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS A LITTLE WIND OFF THE DECK
FROM A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...BUT THE DILEMMA IS HOW MUCH OF
THE WIND WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BIT OF INVERSIONS AT ALL THE SIGHTS
TONIGHT BUT NOT THAT STRONG. STILL SOME FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AT
KGFL. WE KEPT IFR FOG THERE AFTER 06Z.

ELSEWHERE...USE THE MIFG (SHALLOW FOG AT KPOU AND KALB) AS THERE
MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT THICKER FOG. HOWEVER...THIS
IS A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FOG.

AT KPSF...ENOUGH OF A BREEZE MIGHT PREVENT ANY FOG...BUT CIGS
COULD LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PLACE IT IN THE TAFS (AFTER THE IN ITAL MVFR CIGS WHICH WERE STILL
OCCURRING). WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AFTER 12Z...ALL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO NORTHWEST GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS
TONIGHT...TURNING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON SATURDAY.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MIGHT BRING A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF
THE DAY...MAINLY AT KGFL (VCSH).


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE COOL AND WET
PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MOST OF SATURDAY. FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30MPH EXPECTED.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ..AND REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED DURING THE WEEKEND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 250301
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1101 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
BRIEF TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 09Z AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS. WINDS SHOULD RELAX
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN.

CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS LATE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LATE
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WINDOW...ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC LATE TONIGHT.

IF WINDS DECOUPLE EARLIER THAN PREDICTED TEMPS ACROSS OUTLYING
AREAS COULD DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES...LEADING TO PATCHY FROST
FORMATION IN INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PINE BARRENS. THIS IS A LOW
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONT.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S...WHILE
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 40S. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING SUNDAY.
ITS RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH DURING MONDAY...AND WILL BE OFFSHORE
ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER ALL THREE DAYS...BUT BREEZY ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY...BUT A LITTLE COOLER ON MONDAY
DUE TO MORE LIMITED MIXING. A RETURN FLOW WITH SW WINDS WILL HELP
PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMALS ON TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE SLOW DUE TO THE FRONT BECOMING
ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE DAYTIME HOURS OF WEDS HAVE THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

MODELS DIFFER FOR FRIDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS ECMWF WITH A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION. SUPPORT FROM
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE NOT GREAT SO FAR...BUT WORTH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND PASS
TO THE SOUTH ON SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SAT NIGHT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS. BKN VFR CIGS OVER MOST OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INVOF NYC IS DISSIPATING..WITH WINDS
BECOMING NW AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS 15-18 KT LATE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...NW FLOW UNDER 10 KT OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND OR JUST OVER 10 KT BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY...
AND THEN BACK WSW DURING MID AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY GUST
UP TO 20 KT AS THE WINDS BACK WSW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT ON
SUNDAY...HIGHEST NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY TIGHTENS THROUGH 09Z WITH GUSTS INTO
THE LOWER 20S ON OCEAN AND AROUND 20 ON NEARSHORE
WATERS...DIMINISHING TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVE...WITH SEAS AND
WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT. WILL ADJUST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
START A BIT EARLIER FOR ALL WATERS STARTING SAT EVENING AT
MIDNIGHT WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.

SCA CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS SUNDAY WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW. WINDS
THEN SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD...SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR ALL
WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SW RETURN FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT ON TUESDAY...BUT GUSTS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN COULD BE
MARGINALLY AT SCA LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...BC/NV
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...BC/JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC









000
FXUS61 KBUF 250257
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1057 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST
COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY
BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND ARRIVES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER LAKES OVERNIGHT.
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING IS SHOWING AN AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHING EAST
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS
UPSTATE NEW YORK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THEN FEATURED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR LATE OCTOBER THANKS TO THE
APPROACHING CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH MID TO UPPER
40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 40S IN THE COOLER MORE SHELTERED
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. THE TUG HILL MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

SATURDAY MORNING THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST AND QUICKLY WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

DURING THE AFTERNOON A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARDS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
CROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG
DPVA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 150+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET AND AREA OF
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. PWAT VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MORE THAN AMPLE FOR LATE FALL. THIS SHOULD ALL COME
TOGETHER WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT
TO PRODUCE A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THE LIFTED INDEX DROPS TO -1C TO -3C DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH STRONG FORCING MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN WIDELY
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
BENEATH THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

A BRIEF WINDOW OF 850MB TEMPS AROUND +7C JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS...IN THE MID 60S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME OF THE WARMER
SPOTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES MAY REACH THE
UPPER 60S. IT WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO
ROCHESTER WHERE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEMES SUGGEST GUSTS IN
THE 35-40 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYS TWO SHORTWAVES...A
COMPACT SHORTWAVE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF LAKE  WINNIPEG...AND A
SECOND MORE BROAD WAVE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE KEY OVER THIS UPCOMING TIMEFRAME.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
SATURDAY...WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY THE
SATURDAY EVENING...THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD. ALOFT THE
SHORTWAVE WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE WAVE STILL CROSSING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. ANY
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY WILL END EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING...THOUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...AND UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WILL DROP TO AROUND
-1C OVER LAKE ONTARIO...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER LAKE ERIE. THE
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL BE UP TO 10-12K FEET AND THERE
WILL ALSO BE LITTLE WIND SHEAR. THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL AID TO DEVELOP A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN OVERNIGHT
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE GREATER AMBIENT SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
RESIDES.

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
FALL APART THROUGH THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE
SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST.

THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR QUIET AND
DRY CONDITIONS. LATER MONDAY MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHWARD
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION MAY BRING A SHOWER FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD TO
BRUSH BY FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL NOW BE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE ROCKIES WHERE IT WILL CARRY AND DEEPEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FROM NEAR IOWA MONDAY EVENING TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT STRENGTHENING ON THIS DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...AND LAKE ONTARIO REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND AREAS JUST TO THE EAST AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION.

AFTER THIS WARM FRONT PASSES...AND WITH DAYTIME MIXING THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. HIGH
CHANCES POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS PASS ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...AND AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS A FEW
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A WESTERLY FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL THIS TIME PERIOD...AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH
THE 40S...WITH WARMEST AREAS UNDER LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SUNDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...AND THAT AT LOW TO MID 50S.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION AND SKIES CLEAR...SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. AGAIN WARMEST
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME LINGER LOW CLOUDS
WILL RESIDE.

GRADUALLY WARMING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUCH THAT THERE MAY BE A FEW
70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE MODELS QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND PRECIPITATION...NEAR RECORD WARMTH SEEMS LESS LIKELY NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY THAN TUESDAY...WITH MID 50S COMMON.
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG
WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A WINDIER DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE
INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND SOUTH OF BUFFALO
TOWARD JAMESTOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY...WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ONLY AROUND 5K
FEET. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS
LOW...AND HAVE LEFT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR
THE HUDSON BAY SHIFTS NORTH AND EASTWARD. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
LATE THIS EVENING IS SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS APPROACHING
CROSSING INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST ACROSS WNY WITH THE LEADING EDGE EVENTUALLY REACHING ART/CNY BY
09Z. ACROSS FAR WNY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CIGS AT KBUF/KROC/KJHW
WILL DROP TO MVFR AFTER 10Z AND AT KART AFTER 12Z.

DURING THE AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT AND POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SHOWERS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THESE SHOWERS WILL HELP CIGS REBOUND TO VFR...BUT A PERIOD
OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. VSBY SHOULD STAY
MAINLY VFR FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SHOWERS LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN
NATURE. THE NORTH COUNTRY MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN
ANY HEAVIER AND MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF
THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON SATURDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE LOWER LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE ON BOTH LAKES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
THEN BECOME WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY INCREASE
FURTHER TO 30 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO DURING THAT TIME FRAME AS COLD
AIR DEEPENS AND PROMOTES STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
MIXING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE LOWER LAKES BY MONDAY AND BRING AN END TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT
         MONDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
         FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 250252
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1052 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY. MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
BRIEFLY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
7 AND 10 PM UPDATES...
JUST MINOR UPDATES THIS EVENING WITH NO PRECIPITATION. BROKEN HIGH
THIN CLOUDS HAVE NOT PREVENTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
QUICKLY. ALSO LIGHT TO CALM SURFACE WINDS WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGE.
BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT TO THE MIN TEMPS. SOME 30S ALREADY SO ADJUSTED
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES DOWN.

225 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE STACKED UPPR LVL LOW THAT HAVE CAUSED UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
DAYS HAVE FINALLY MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT IT NO LONGER IMPACTS
OUR WEATHER PATTERN. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TODAY NEAR
NOVA SCOTIA. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD WE WILL GO
INTO SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.

IT APPEARS THAT ALL SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY SOME VIRGA IS LEFT. THE CLOUD COVERAGE HAVE ALSO
DISSIPATED MUCH QUICKER THAN EXPECTED WHICH ALSO HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA THAT HAVE SEEN LOTS OF SUNSHINE TO REBOUND QUITE
NICELY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPR
50S TO LOW 60S. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES BEFORE
SUNSET.

A VERY WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE... EXPECT THIS WAVE TO
JUST PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS... MAINLY CIRRUS. IT APPEARS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY THIS WILL BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY.

TONIGHT THE STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO SINK SOUTH ALONG THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP US UNDER WEAK RIDING ALOFT ALLOWING SFC
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY AND PA. THE
EVENING WILL START OUT AS MOSTLY CLEAR AND BY SUNRISE EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE WEST DUE TO THE ADVANCING
SYSTEM. SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT... TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE UPR 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
225 PM EDT UPDATE...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TO THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER... DUE TO A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING... EXPECT AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS TO REMAIN
DRY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
START TO IMPACT THE CWA BY EJECTING A VORTICITY MAX ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE AROUND THE FINGER LAKES REGION... WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY... AND THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU. THIS SYSTEM HAS
IMPRESSIVE UPPR LVL DYNAMICS BUT LACKS MOISTURE... THUS DO NOT
EXPECT HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ATTENDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM.  WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY POST FRONTAL AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE MSLP INCREASES ACROSS THE CWA.

AFTER THE FIRST INITIAL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA A SECONDARY
WAVE THEN WILL QUICKLY DROP AND FOLLOW IN IT`S WAKE. THIS MAY
CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
SHORTLY AFTER THAT... LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
LASTING THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL BECOME MORE FALL LIKE AS THE
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
125 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM MVG IN
TUE NGT INTO WED MRNG. WHILE GFS HAS COME ONBOARD WITH EC
REGARDING TIMING OF FROPA LATE TUE NGT, LATEST CMC IS SLOWER AND
DOES NOT BRING FROPA THRU UNTIL WED MRNG. EITHER WAY, HV GONE WITH
WPC GUIDANCE FOR SYSTEM WITH CHC SHOWERS. NW FLOW WL FOLLOW SYSTEM
AS IT PUSHES INTO EASTERN CANADA, SETTING THE STAGE FOR LK EFFECT
SHOWERS UNTIL HIPRES BUILDS IN ON THUR.

TEMPS WL CLIMB WELL ABV NORMAL ON TUE AHD OF SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 70S DRG THE AFTN. CDFNT PASSAGE WL
QUICKLY DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TWD NORMAL VALUES THRU THE END OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR XPCTD THRU THE TAF PD. RDG OVHD THIS EVE SHD KEEP KSKIES
MAINLY CLR OTR THAN SOME HI CLDS THRU LATE NGT. TWRD MRNG...WV MVG
THRU THE GREAT LAKES WILL DVLP A LWR CLD DECK...ESP OVER THE NY
SITES...BUT GNRLY SHD REMAIN IN THE VFR CAT. A FEW VERY LGT SHWRS
ARE PSBL AS THE WV PASSES...BUT NOT ENUF TO LWR CIGS OR RESTRICT
VSBYS. DRIER AIR BHD THE WV ARRIVES BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-SUN...SPOTTY -SHRA WITH SAT EVE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL POST FRONTAL MVFR CIG INTO SUNDAY FOR NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH/TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH/TAC
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...DGM/PVF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 250230
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, GIVING WAY TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL RETURN
LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED
AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILD WEATHER IS IN
STORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT COMES THROUGH WITH
MORE SHOWERS FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1026 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT
YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL IS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
LATE THIS EVENING. THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS ON WESTERN FRINGE OF
700MB CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS OFFSHORE LOW THROUGH ABOUT
03-06Z TONIGHT...AFTER WHICH TIME A NARROW RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. THE LOSS OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME CLOSELY
MARKS THE BACK EDGE OF THE PREVAILING STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS EVIDENT
ON EVENING IR IMAGERY ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING. ANTICIPATE A SLOW BUT STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
CLEARING LINE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
THRU CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. SOME SCATTERED MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS LATE TONIGHT. ANY
LINGERING SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT WILL END BY 03Z
OR SO.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIVE
COOLING CYCLE EARLY...WITH SOME BETTER POTENTIAL LATE. GENERALLY
STAYED ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. LOCALLY NEAR 32F IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS
WITHIN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACK REGION.

THERE COULD BE A TOUCH OF FOG IN ANY LOCATION THAT HAS A FEW
HOURS OF CLEARING LATE, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE CHANGEABLE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. THOSE WANTING TO DO MORE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, ESPECIALLY
REQUIRING DRY WEATHER, SHOULD PLAN FOR SATURDAY. THOSE THAT WANT
TO GO SNOWFLAKE CHASING SHOULD PLAN FOR SUNDAY. KEEP READING FOR A
LITTLE MORE SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD,
SO WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SUN, HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH, MID/LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADVECT IN
WARMER AIR ALOFT. THIS, ALONG WITH SOME SUN, SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION -- ACTUALLY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 60S OFF TO OUR WEST IN ONTARIO, I HAVE SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES. COULD BE SOME LOWER 60S IN SOME VALLEY
REGIONS (DEPENDANT UPON HOW MUCH SUN WE SEE).

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL START STREAMING IN FROM WEST TO EAST, AND
SHOULD THICKEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS TO BEGIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH IS A FAST
MOVER, SO SHOWERS WILL REACH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING
AND THEN INTO EASTERN VERMONT NO LATER THAN MID-EVENING. DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN -- LESS THAN 1/4" SHOULD
DO IT.

SATURDAY NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT WITH FLOW
TURNING NORTHWEST AND DECENT AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
AND LARGER SCALE TROUGH STILL ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WE
SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BECOME MORE OROGRAPHICALLY LOCKED.
HAVE KEPT THE IDEA OF HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE GREENS AND `DACKS,
LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO COOL, SO
THAT WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST OF ELEVATIONS
(3500FT+) BY LATE. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER
UNIFORM -- LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AT ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST
FOLKS LIVE.

SUNDAY: ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ALOFT. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP THE OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION CONTINUING. SUSPECT
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO ABOUT 2500FT BY THE AFTERNOON, AND THERE
SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES AT LEAST AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH COLD AIR COMING
IN ALOFT, THIS WILL GENERATE PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES AS WELL,
ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING TO BRING DOWN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
ANTICIPATE IT TO BE BREEZY, WITH GUSTS TO 25MPH AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT: OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS FILTERING IN. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, SO THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME -- BUT THINK 30S WILL BE WIDESPREAD
EXCEPT LOW 40S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 413 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON MONDAY AS THE REGION STILL
REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
WHILE THE GFS MODEL IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EAST OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODEL IS MUCH FASTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH THIS
COLD FRONT. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL WHICH BETTER FITS
PREVIOUS CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THEN
ACROSS VERMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD
FRONT EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA ON FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...SEVERAL TAF LOCATIONS NOW VFR...AND REMAINING
TO IMPROVE FROM IFR/MVFR TO VFR OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IN GULF OF
MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...AND WEAK RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER
TO MAINTAIN VFR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IR SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBS SHOWING CLEARING LINE FROM ABOUT KMSS STRAIGHT SOUTH...WITH A
FEW HOURS CLEAR BEFORE A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES IN TO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD LIFR FOG AT KMPV AFTER
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...AND CONTINUED WITH THIS FORECAST AS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE LEFT FROM RECENT RAINFALL. DID NOT FORECAST FG/LIFR AT
KSLK AS RAIN HELD OFF THERE. VFR CIGS TO MOVE IN WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED RW IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW WENT WITH VCSH ALL TAF SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 250144
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
945 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEK WILL PULL AWAY TONIGHT.  A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRISK AND
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT...ONLY VERY MINOR EDITS TO AN OTHERWISE FINE
FORECAST PACKAGE. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE AWAY. A NORTHWEST
BREEZE WAS AVERAGING ABOUT ABOUT 5 MPH.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...BRINGING WITH IT DRIER AIR AND A CLEARING
SKY. COMBINED WITH THE LESSENING INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW EXPECT SKY COVER TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM
WEST TO EAST...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH EVEN
POCKETS OF CLEARING POSSIBLE AFTER A BATCH OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
QUICKLY WORK ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGING IN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH CLEARING SKIES...A SLACKENING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD AND
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW...EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE ACROSS VALLEY AREAS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN VERMONT
WHERE TERRAIN-ENHANCED DECOUPLING OCCURS.

LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVES INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION MAY ASSIST WITH
SHALLOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW.
SO THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS
OF THE DECK WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS INTO NW CT KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AT THE PRESENT TIME. AS MORE PEAKS OF SUN ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MIXING POTENTIAL...WE WILL WARM
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS /PERHAPS LOWER 60S
FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS/ AND LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLIDES WELL EAST OF THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED /AT BEST/. HOWEVER...THE COLD
UPPER LOW AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST /MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AT OR BELOW 0C BY
MORNING SO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MIXING OF SNOW.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE TRANSVERSING THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THE
OTHER METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
TAP INTO THE MID-UPR 30KT RANGE SO A RATHER BRISK DAY IS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH THE CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW-MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW TRACKS WELL EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST PER NCEP MODEL CONSENSUS. A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
SHOWER TREND DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH IMPROVING SKY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOS VALUES ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE /WITHIN 1-2 DEGREES/ AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT BECOMING UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT
ALSO TREND COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A VFR TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER SOME MVFR AND IFR IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY TONIGHT.

THE STORM WAS FINALLY COMPLETELY PULLING AWAY BUT IN ITS AWAKE WAS
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS A LITTLE WIND OFF THE DECK
FROM A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...BUT THE DILEMMA IS HOW MUCH OF
THE WIND WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BIT OF INVERSIONS AT ALL THE SIGHTS
TONIGHT BUT NOT THAT STRONG. STILL SOME FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AT
KGFL. WE KEPT IFR FOG THERE AFTER 06Z.

ELSEWHERE...USE THE MIFG (SHALLOW FOG AT KPOU AND KALB) AS THERE
MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT THICKER FOG. HOWEVER...THIS
IS A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FOG.

AT KPSF...ENOUGH OF A BREEZE MIGHT PREVENT ANY FOG...BUT CIGS
COULD LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PLACE IT IN THE TAFS (AFTER THE IN ITAL MVFR CIGS WHICH WERE STILL
OCCURRING). WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AFTER 12Z...ALL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO NORTHWEST GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS
TONIGHT...TURNING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON SATURDAY.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MIGHT BRING A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF
THE DAY...MAINLY AT KGFL (VCSH).


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE COOL AND WET
PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MOST OF SATURDAY. FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30MPH EXPECTED.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ..AND REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED DURING THE WEEKEND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/JPV
NEAR TERM...IRL/BGM/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV










000
FXUS61 KOKX 250010
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
810 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH...AND TO 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE...LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC.

IF WINDS DECOUPLE EARLIER THAN PREDICTED TEMPS ACROSS OUTLYING
AREAS COULD DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES...LEADING TO PATCHY FROST
FORMATION IN INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PINE BARRENS. THIS IS A LOW
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONT.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S...WHILE
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 40S. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING SUNDAY.
ITS RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH DURING MONDAY...AND WILL BE OFFSHORE
ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER ALL THREE DAYS...BUT BREEZY ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY...BUT A LITTLE COOLER ON MONDAY
DUE TO MORE LIMITED MIXING. A RETURN FLOW WITH SW WINDS WILL HELP
PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMALS ON TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE SLOW DUE TO THE FRONT BECOMING
ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE DAYTIME HOURS OF WEDS HAVE THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

MODELS DIFFER FOR FRIDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS ECMWF WITH A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION. SUPPORT FROM
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE NOT GREAT SO FAR...BUT WORTH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND PASS
TO THE SOUTH ON SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SAT NIGHT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS. BKN VFR CIGS OVER MOST OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALLOWED WINDS IN NYC METRO TO GO E-NE
EARLIER. THESE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK NW TONIGHT AS THE
TROUGH DISSIPATES AND THE HIGH BUILDS IN. OTHERWISE...NW FLOW
UNDER 10 KT TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND OR
JUST OVER 10 KT...AND THEN BACK WSW DURING MID AFTERNOON.
WINDS COULD BRIEFLY GUST UP TO 20 KT AS THE WINDS BACK WSW.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...VFR. NW WINDS G30 KT
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...ALLOWING FOR SUB SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVE...WITH SEAS AND
WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT. WILL ADJUST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
START A BIT EARLIER FOR ALL WATERS STARTING SAT EVENING AT
MIDNIGHT WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.

SCA CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS SUNDAY WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW. WINDS
THEN SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD...SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR ALL
WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SW RETURN FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT ON TUESDAY...BUT GUSTS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN COULD BE
MARGINALLY AT SCA LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...BC/NV
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BC/JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC









000
FXUS61 KBUF 250006
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
806 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST
COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY
BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND ARRIVES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER LAKES THIS
EVENING. MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING IS SHOWING AN AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION APPROACHING FROM
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO PROVINCE. THIS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AND INTO
WESTERN NY AFTER 01Z AND CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN FEATURED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR LATE
OCTOBER THANKS TO THE APPROACHING CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 40S
IN THE COOLER MORE SHELTERED INTERIOR LOCATIONS. THE TUG HILL MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

SATURDAY MORNING THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST AND QUICKLY WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

DURING THE AFTERNOON A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARDS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
CROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG
DPVA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 150+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET AND AREA OF
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. PWAT VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MORE THAN AMPLE FOR LATE FALL. THIS SHOULD ALL COME
TOGETHER WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT
TO PRODUCE A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THE LIFTED INDEX DROPS TO -1C TO -3C DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH STRONG FORCING MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN WIDELY
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
BENEATH THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

A BRIEF WINDOW OF 850MB TEMPS AROUND +7C JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS...IN THE MID 60S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME OF THE WARMER
SPOTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES MAY REACH THE
UPPER 60S. IT WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO
ROCHESTER WHERE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEMES SUGGEST GUSTS IN
THE 35-40 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYS TWO SHORTWAVES...A
COMPACT SHORTWAVE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF LAKE  WINNIPEG...AND A
SECOND MORE BROAD WAVE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE KEY OVER THIS UPCOMING TIMEFRAME.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
SATURDAY...WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY THE
SATURDAY EVENING...THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD. ALOFT THE
SHORTWAVE WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE WAVE STILL CROSSING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. ANY
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY WILL END EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING...THOUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...AND UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WILL DROP TO AROUND
-1C OVER LAKE ONTARIO...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER LAKE ERIE. THE
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL BE UP TO 10-12K FEET AND THERE
WILL ALSO BE LITTLE WIND SHEAR. THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL AID TO DEVELOP A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN OVERNIGHT
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE GREATER AMBIENT SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
RESIDES.

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
FALL APART THROUGH THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE
SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST.

THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR QUIET AND
DRY CONDITIONS. LATER MONDAY MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHWARD
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION MAY BRING A SHOWER FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD TO
BRUSH BY FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL NOW BE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE ROCKIES WHERE IT WILL CARRY AND DEEPEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FROM NEAR IOWA MONDAY EVENING TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT STRENGTHENING ON THIS DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...AND LAKE ONTARIO REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND AREAS JUST TO THE EAST AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION.

AFTER THIS WARM FRONT PASSES...AND WITH DAYTIME MIXING THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. HIGH
CHANCES POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS PASS ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...AND AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS A FEW
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A WESTERLY FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL THIS TIME PERIOD...AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH
THE 40S...WITH WARMEST AREAS UNDER LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SUNDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...AND THAT AT LOW TO MID 50S.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION AND SKIES CLEAR...SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. AGAIN WARMEST
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME LINGER LOW CLOUDS
WILL RESIDE.

GRADUALLY WARMING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUCH THAT THERE MAY BE A FEW
70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE MODELS QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND PRECIPITATION...NEAR RECORD WARMTH SEEMS LESS LIKELY NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY THAN TUESDAY...WITH MID 50S COMMON.
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG
WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A WINDIER DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE
INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND SOUTH OF BUFFALO
TOWARD JAMESTOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY...WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ONLY AROUND 5K
FEET. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS
LOW...AND HAVE LEFT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR
THE HUDSON BAY SHIFTS NORTH AND EASTWARD. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS EVENING IS SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. THIS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS WNY THE AREA AFTER
01Z EVENTUALLY REACHING ART/CNY BY 09Z. ACROSS FAR WNY GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CIGS AT KBUF/KROC/KJHW WILL DROP TO MVFR AFTER 10Z AND
AT KART AFTER 12Z.

DURING THE AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT AND POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SHOWERS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THESE SHOWERS WILL HELP CIGS REBOUND TO VFR...BUT A PERIOD
OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. VSBY SHOULD STAY
MAINLY VFR FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SHOWERS LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN
NATURE. THE NORTH COUNTRY MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN
ANY HEAVIER AND MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF
THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AT 15-20 KNOTS ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF BOTH LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE. THESE CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE SHORT LIVED WITH WINDS AND WAVES COMING BACK DOWN BY 11PM THIS
EVENING. ON LAKE ERIE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON SATURDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE LOWER LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE ON BOTH LAKES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
THEN BECOME WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY INCREASE
FURTHER TO 30 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO DURING THAT TIME FRAME AS COLD
AIR DEEPENS AND PROMOTES STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
MIXING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE LOWER LAKES BY MONDAY AND BRING AN END TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT
         MONDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
         FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KALY 242351
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
751 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEK WILL PULL AWAY TONIGHT.  A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRISK AND
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND SKY COVER.

IR AND 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW EROSION
OF CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE HUNG TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE COASTAL LOW LINGERED ACROSS THE
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...BRINGING WITH IT DRIER AIR AND CLEARING
SKIES. COMBINED WITH THE LESSENING INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW EXPECT SKY COVER TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM
WEST TO EAST...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH EVEN
POCKETS OF CLEARING POSSIBLE AFTER A BATCH OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
QUICKLY SKIRT ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGING IN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH CLEARING SKIES...A SLACKENING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD AND
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW...EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE ACROSS VALLEY AREAS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN VERMONT
WHERE TERRAIN-ENHANCED DECOUPLING OCCURS.

LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVES INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION MAY ASSIST WITH
SHALLOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW.
SO THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS
OF THE DECK WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS INTO NW CT KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AT THE PRESENT TIME. AS MORE PEAKS OF SUN ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MIXING POTENTIAL...WE WILL WARM
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS /PERHAPS LOWER 60S
FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS/ AND LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLIDES WELL EAST OF THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED /AT BEST/. HOWEVER...THE COLD
UPPER LOW AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST /MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AT OR BELOW 0C BY
MORNING SO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MIXING OF SNOW.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE TRANSVERSING THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THE
OTHER METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
TAP INTO THE MID-UPR 30KT RANGE SO A RATHER BRISK DAY IS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH THE CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW-MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW TRACKS WELL EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST PER NCEP MODEL CONSENSUS. A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
SHOWER TREND DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH IMPROVING SKY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOS VALUES ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE /WITHIN 1-2 DEGREES/ AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT BECOMING UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT
ALSO TREND COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A VFR TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER SOME MVFR AND IFR IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY TONIGHT.

THE STORM WAS FINALLY COMPLETELY PULLING AWAY BUT IN ITS AWAKE WAS
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS A LITTLE WIND OFF THE DECK
FROM A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...BUT THE DILEMMA IS HOW MUCH OF
THE WIND WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BIT OF INVERSIONS AT ALL THE SIGHTS
TONIGHT BUT NOT THAT STRONG. STILL SOME FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AT
KGFL. WE KEPT IFR FOG THERE AFTER 06Z.

ELSEWHERE...USE THE MIFG (SHALLOW FOG AT KPOU AND KALB) AS THERE
MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT THICKER FOG. HOWEVER...THIS
IS A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FOG.

AT KPSF...ENOUGH OF A BREEZE MIGHT PREVENT ANY FOG...BUT CIGS
COULD LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PLACE IT IN THE TAFS (AFTER THE IN ITAL MVFR CIGS WHICH WERE STILL
OCCURRING). WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AFTER 12Z...ALL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO NORTHWEST GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS
TONIGHT...TURNING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON SATURDAY.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MIGHT BRING A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF
THE DAY...MAINLY AT KGFL (VCSH).


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE COOL AND WET
PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MOST OF SATURDAY. FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30MPH EXPECTED.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ..AND REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED DURING THE WEEKEND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/JPV
NEAR TERM...IRL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 242345
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
745 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, GIVING WAY TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL RETURN
LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED
AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILD WEATHER IS IN
STORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT COMES THROUGH WITH
MORE SHOWERS FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT
YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL IS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
THIS EVENING. THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS WITHIN 700MB CYCLONIC FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE THOUGH ABOUT 03-06Z TONIGHT...AFTER
WHICH TIME A NARROW RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE
LOSS OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME CLOSELY MARKS THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PREVAILING STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS EVIDENT ON EVENING IR IMAGERY
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATE A
SLOW BUT STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CLEARING LINE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THRU CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. ANY LINGERING SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
VERMONT WILL END BY 03Z OR SO.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIVE
COOLING CYCLE EARLY...WITH SOME BETTER POTENTIAL LATE. GENERALLY
STAYED ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. LOCALLY NEAR 32F IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS
WITHIN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACK REGION.

THERE COULD BE A TOUCH OF FOG IN ANY LOCATION THAT HAS A FEW
HOURS OF CLEARING LATE, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE CHANGEABLE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. THOSE WANTING TO DO MORE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, ESPECIALLY
REQUIRING DRY WEATHER, SHOULD PLAN FOR SATURDAY. THOSE THAT WANT
TO GO SNOWFLAKE CHASING SHOULD PLAN FOR SUNDAY. KEEP READING FOR A
LITTLE MORE SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD,
SO WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SUN, HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH, MID/LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADVECT IN
WARMER AIR ALOFT. THIS, ALONG WITH SOME SUN, SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION -- ACTUALLY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 60S OFF TO OUR WEST IN ONTARIO, I HAVE SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES. COULD BE SOME LOWER 60S IN SOME VALLEY
REGIONS (DEPENDANT UPON HOW MUCH SUN WE SEE).

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL START STREAMING IN FROM WEST TO EAST, AND
SHOULD THICKEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS TO BEGIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH IS A FAST
MOVER, SO SHOWERS WILL REACH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING
AND THEN INTO EASTERN VERMONT NO LATER THAN MID-EVENING. DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN -- LESS THAN 1/4" SHOULD
DO IT.

SATURDAY NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT WITH FLOW
TURNING NORTHWEST AND DECENT AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
AND LARGER SCALE TROUGH STILL ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WE
SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BECOME MORE OROGRAPHICALLY LOCKED.
HAVE KEPT THE IDEA OF HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE GREENS AND `DACKS,
LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO COOL, SO
THAT WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST OF ELEVATIONS
(3500FT+) BY LATE. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER
UNIFORM -- LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AT ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST
FOLKS LIVE.

SUNDAY: ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ALOFT. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP THE OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION CONTINUING. SUSPECT
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO ABOUT 2500FT BY THE AFTERNOON, AND THERE
SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES AT LEAST AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH COLD AIR COMING
IN ALOFT, THIS WILL GENERATE PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES AS WELL,
ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING TO BRING DOWN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
ANTICIPATE IT TO BE BREEZY, WITH GUSTS TO 25MPH AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT: OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS FILTERING IN. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, SO THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME -- BUT THINK 30S WILL BE WIDESPREAD
EXCEPT LOW 40S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 413 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON MONDAY AS THE REGION STILL
REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
WHILE THE GFS MODEL IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EAST OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODEL IS MUCH FASTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH THIS
COLD FRONT. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL WHICH BETTER FITS
PREVIOUS CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THEN
ACROSS VERMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD
FRONT EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA ON FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...SEVERAL TAF LOCATIONS NOW VFR...AND REMAINING
TO IMPROVE FROM IFR/MVFR TO VFR OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IN GULF OF
MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...AND WEAK RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER
TO MAINTAIN VFR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IR SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBS SHOWING CLEARING LINE FROM ABOUT KMSS STRAIGHT SOUTH...WITH A
FEW HOURS CLEAR BEFORE A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES IN TO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD LIFR FOG AT KMPV AFTER
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...AND CONTINUED WITH THIS FORECAST AS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE LEFT FROM RECENT RAINFALL. DID NOT FORECAST FG/LIFR AT
KSLK AS RAIN HELD OFF THERE. VFR CIGS TO MOVE IN WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED RW IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW WENT WITH VCSH ALL TAF SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBGM 242340
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
740 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY RESULTING IN
DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
225 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE STACKED UPPR LVL LOW THAT HAVE CAUSED UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
DAYS HAVE FINALLY MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT IT NO LONGER IMPACTS
OUR WEATHER PATTERN. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TODAY NEAR
NOVA SCOTIA. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD WE WILL GO
INTO SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.

IT APPEARS THAT ALL SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY SOME VIRGA IS LEFT. THE CLOUD COVERAGE HAVE ALSO
DISSIPATED MUCH QUICKER THAN EXPECTED WHICH ALSO HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA THAT HAVE SEEN LOTS OF SUNSHINE TO REBOUND QUITE
NICELY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPR
50S TO LOW 60S. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES BEFORE
SUNSET.

A VERY WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE... EXPECT THIS WAVE TO
JUST PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS... MAINLY CIRRUS. IT APPEARS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY THIS WILL BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY.

TONIGHT THE STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO SINK SOUTH ALONG THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP US UNDER WEAK RIDING ALOFT ALLOWING SFC
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY AND PA. THE
EVENING WILL START OUT AS MOSTLY CLEAR AND BY SUNRISE EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE WEST DUE TO THE ADVANCING
SYSTEM. SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT... TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE UPR 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
225 PM EDT UPDATE...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TO THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER... DUE TO A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING... EXPECT AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS TO REMAIN
DRY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
START TO IMPACT THE CWA BY EJECTING A VORTICITY MAX ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE AROUND THE FINGER LAKES REGION... WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY... AND THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU. THIS SYSTEM HAS
IMPRESSIVE UPPR LVL DYNAMICS BUT LACKS MOISTURE... THUS DO NOT
EXPECT HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ATTENDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM.  WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY POST FRONTAL AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE MSLP INCREASES ACROSS THE CWA.

AFTER THE FIRST INITIAL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA A SECONDARY
WAVE THEN WILL QUICKLY DROP AND FOLLOW IN IT`S WAKE. THIS MAY
CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
SHORTLY AFTER THAT... LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
LASTING THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL BECOME MORE FALL LIKE AS THE
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
125 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM MVG IN
TUE NGT INTO WED MRNG. WHILE GFS HAS COME ONBOARD WITH EC
REGARDING TIMING OF FROPA LATE TUE NGT, LATEST CMC IS SLOWER AND
DOES NOT BRING FROPA THRU UNTIL WED MRNG. EITHER WAY, HV GONE WITH
WPC GUIDANCE FOR SYSTEM WITH CHC SHOWERS. NW FLOW WL FOLLOW SYSTEM
AS IT PUSHES INTO EASTERN CANADA, SETTING THE STAGE FOR LK EFFECT
SHOWERS UNTIL HIPRES BUILDS IN ON THUR.

TEMPS WL CLIMB WELL ABV NORMAL ON TUE AHD OF SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 70S DRG THE AFTN. CDFNT PASSAGE WL
QUICKLY DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TWD NORMAL VALUES THRU THE END OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR XPCTD THRU THE TAF PD. RDG OVHD THIS EVE SHD KEEP KSKIES
MAINLY CLR OTR THAN SOME HI CLDS THRU LATE NGT. TWRD MRNG...WV MVG
THRU THE GREAT LAKES WILL DVLP A LWR CLD DECK...ESP OVER THE NY
SITES...BUT GNRLY SHD REMAIN IN THE VFR CAT. A FEW VERY LGT SHWRS
ARE PSBL AS THE WV PASSES...BUT NOT ENUF TO LWR CIGS OR RESTRICT
VSBYS. DRIER AIR BHD THE WV ARRIVES BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-SUN...SPOTTY -SHRA WITH SAT EVE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL POST FRONTAL MVFR CIG INTO SUNDAY FOR NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...DGM/PVF







000
FXUS61 KALY 242340
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
740 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEK WILL PULL AWAY TONIGHT.  A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRISK AND
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND SKY COVER.

IR AND 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW EROSION
OF CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE HUNG TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE COASTAL LOW LINGERED ACROSS THE
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...BRINGING WITH IT DRIER AIR AND CLEARING
SKIES. COMBINED WITH THE LESSENING INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW EXPECT SKY COVER TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM
WEST TO EAST...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH EVEN
POCKETS OF CLEARING POSSIBLE AFTER A BATCH OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
QUICKLY SKIRT ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGING IN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH CLEARING SKIES...A SLACKENING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD AND
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW...EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE ACROSS VALLEY AREAS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN VERMONT
WHERE TERRAIN-ENHANCED DECOUPLING OCCURS.

LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVES INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION MAY ASSIST WITH
SHALLOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW.
SO THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS
OF THE DACK WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS INTO NW CT KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AT THE PRESENT TIME. AS MORE PEAKS OF SUN ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MIXING POTENTIAL...WE WILL WARM
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS /PERHAPS LOWER 60S
FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS/ AND LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLIDES WELL EAST OF THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED /AT BEST/. HOWEVER...THE COLD
UPPER LOW AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST /MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AT OR BELOW 0C BY
MORNING SO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MIXING OF SNOW.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE TRANSVERSING THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THE
OTHER METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
TAP INTO THE MID-UPR 30KT RANGE SO A RATHER BRISK DAY IS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH THE CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW-MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW TRACKS WELL EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST PER NCEP MODEL CONSENSUS. A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
SHOWER TREND DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH IMPROVING SKY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOS VALUES ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE /WITHIN 1-2 DEGREES/ AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT BECOMING UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT
ALSO TREND COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A DEPARTING COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO KEEP BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS MVFR DUE TO CIGS. THERE MAY BE A FEW POCKETS OF -DZ
AROUND KALB FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL
PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CIGS
BEGIN TO RISE. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTN...AND START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL STORM
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY.

MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE JUST SCT T0 FEW CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT. IF
ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS...THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME IFR BR/FG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...OTHERWISE FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR ALL SITES WITH LIGHT WEST T0
NORTHWEST WINDS.

SOME CLOUDS /MAINLY OF THE HIGHER VARIETY/ LOOK TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND KGFL...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE COOL AND WET
PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MOST OF SATURDAY. FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30MPH EXPECTED.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ..AND REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED DURING THE WEEKEND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/JPV
NEAR TERM...IRL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 242328
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, GIVING WAY TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL RETURN
LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED
AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILD WEATHER IS IN
STORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT COMES THROUGH WITH
MORE SHOWERS FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT WEATHER WISE,
WITH THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE BEING EXACTLY WHEN THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR -- WHICH HAS A BIG POTENTIAL ON HOW COLD IT COULD GET.

AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SHOULD
CLEAR OUT DURING THE MID-EVENING, WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER PAST
MIDNIGHT FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH CLEARING FINALLY
TAKING PLACE JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS, HAVE GONE TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE
FOR EASTERN AREAS, AND A LITTLE CLOSER TO A BLEND/COOLER GUIDANCE
FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK. IN THE END IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY 30S IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK (PERHAPS SUB-FREEZING IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS OF
THE `DACKS). MEANWHILE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS VERMONT -- MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

I SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE A TOUCH OF FOG IN ANY LOCATION THAT HAS A
FEW HOURS OF CLEARING, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE CHANGEABLE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. THOSE WANTING TO DO MORE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, ESPECIALLY
REQUIRING DRY WEATHER, SHOULD PLAN FOR SATURDAY. THOSE THAT WANT
TO GO SNOWFLAKE CHASING SHOULD PLAN FOR SUNDAY. KEEP READING FOR A
LITTLE MORE SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD,
SO WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SUN, HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH, MID/LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADVECT IN
WARMER AIR ALOFT. THIS, ALONG WITH SOME SUN, SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION -- ACTUALLY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 60S OFF TO OUR WEST IN ONTARIO, I HAVE SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES. COULD BE SOME LOWER 60S IN SOME VALLEY
REGIONS (DEPENDANT UPON HOW MUCH SUN WE SEE).

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL START STREAMING IN FROM WEST TO EAST, AND
SHOULD THICKEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS TO BEGIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH IS A FAST
MOVER, SO SHOWERS WILL REACH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING
AND THEN INTO EASTERN VERMONT NO LATER THAN MID-EVENING. DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN -- LESS THAN 1/4" SHOULD
DO IT.

SATURDAY NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT WITH FLOW
TURNING NORTHWEST AND DECENT AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
AND LARGER SCALE TROUGH STILL ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WE
SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BECOME MORE OROGRAPHICALLY LOCKED.
HAVE KEPT THE IDEA OF HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE GREENS AND `DACKS,
LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO COOL, SO
THAT WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST OF ELEVATIONS
(3500FT+) BY LATE. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER
UNIFORM -- LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AT ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST
FOLKS LIVE.

SUNDAY: ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ALOFT. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP THE OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION CONTINUING. SUSPECT
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO ABOUT 2500FT BY THE AFTERNOON, AND THERE
SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES AT LEAST AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH COLD AIR COMING
IN ALOFT, THIS WILL GENERATE PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES AS WELL,
ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING TO BRING DOWN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
ANTICIPATE IT TO BE BREEZY, WITH GUSTS TO 25MPH AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT: OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS FILTERING IN. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, SO THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME -- BUT THINK 30S WILL BE WIDESPREAD
EXCEPT LOW 40S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 413 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON MONDAY AS THE REGION STILL
REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
WHILE THE GFS MODEL IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EAST OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODEL IS MUCH FASTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH THIS
COLD FRONT. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL WHICH BETTER FITS
PREVIOUS CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THEN
ACROSS VERMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD
FRONT EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA ON FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...SEVERAL TAF LOCATIONS NOW VFR...AND REMAINING
TO IMPROVE FROM IFR/MVFR TO VFR OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IN GULF OF
MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...AND WEAK RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER
TO MAINTAIN VFR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IR SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBS SHOWING CLEARING LINE FROM ABOUT KMSS STRAIGHT SOUTH...WITH A
FEW HOURS CLEAR BEFORE A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES IN TO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD LIFR FOG AT KMPV AFTER
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...AND CONTINUED WITH THIS FORECAST AS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE LEFT FROM RECENT RAINFALL. DID NOT FORECAST FG/LIFR AT
KSLK AS RAIN HELD OFF THERE. VFR CIGS TO MOVE IN WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED RW IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW WENT WITH VCSH ALL TAF SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 242013
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
413 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, GIVING WAY TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL RETURN
LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED
AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILD WEATHER IS IN
STORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT COMES THROUGH WITH
MORE SHOWERS FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT WEATHER WISE,
WITH THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE BEING EXACTLY WHEN THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR -- WHICH HAS A BIG POTENTIAL ON HOW COLD IT COULD GET.

AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SHOULD
CLEAR OUT DURING THE MID-EVENING, WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER PAST
MIDNIGHT FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH CLEARING FINALLY
TAKING PLACE JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS, HAVE GONE TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE
FOR EASTERN AREAS, AND A LITTLE CLOSER TO A BLEND/COOLER GUIDANCE
FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK. IN THE END IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY 30S IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK (PERHAPS SUB-FREEZING IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS OF
THE `DACKS). MEANWHILE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS VERMONT -- MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

I SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE A TOUCH OF FOG IN ANY LOCATION THAT HAS A
FEW HOURS OF CLEARING, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE CHANGEABLE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. THOSE WANTING TO DO MORE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, ESPECIALLY
REQUIRING DRY WEATHER, SHOULD PLAN FOR SATURDAY. THOSE THAT WANT
TO GO SNOWFLAKE CHASING SHOULD PLAN FOR SUNDAY. KEEP READING FOR A
LITTLE MORE SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD,
SO WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SUN, HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH, MID/LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADVECT IN
WARMER AIR ALOFT. THIS, ALONG WITH SOME SUN, SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION -- ACTUALLY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 60S OFF TO OUR WEST IN ONTARIO, I HAVE SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES. COULD BE SOME LOWER 60S IN SOME VALLEY
REGIONS (DEPENDANT UPON HOW MUCH SUN WE SEE).

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL START STREAMING IN FROM WEST TO EAST, AND
SHOULD THICKEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS TO BEGIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH IS A FAST
MOVER, SO SHOWERS WILL REACH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING
AND THEN INTO EASTERN VERMONT NO LATER THAN MID-EVENING. DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN -- LESS THAN 1/4" SHOULD
DO IT.

SATURDAY NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT WITH FLOW
TURNING NORTHWEST AND DECENT AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
AND LARGER SCALE TROUGH STILL ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WE
SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BECOME MORE OROGRAPHICALLY LOCKED.
HAVE KEPT THE IDEA OF HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE GREENS AND `DACKS,
LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO COOL, SO
THAT WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST OF ELEVATIONS
(3500FT+) BY LATE. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER
UNIFORM -- LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AT ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST
FOLKS LIVE.

SUNDAY: ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ALOFT. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP THE OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION CONTINUING. SUSPECT
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO ABOUT 2500FT BY THE AFTERNOON, AND THERE
SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES AT LEAST AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH COLD AIR COMING
IN ALOFT, THIS WILL GENERATE PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES AS WELL,
ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING TO BRING DOWN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
ANTICIPATE IT TO BE BREEZY, WITH GUSTS TO 25MPH AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT: OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS FILTERING IN. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, SO THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME -- BUT THINK 30S WILL BE WIDESPREAD
EXCEPT LOW 40S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 413 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON MONDAY AS THE REGION STILL
REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
WHILE THE GFS MODEL IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EAST OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODEL IS MUCH FASTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH THIS
COLD FRONT. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL WHICH BETTER FITS
PREVIOUS CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THEN
ACROSS VERMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD
FRONT EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA ON FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
AT 18Z FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWING
CEILINGS SLOWLY RISING ACROSS THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR ACROSS THE REGION BY 04Z
SATURDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...GFS LAMP GUIDANCE
HINTING AT SOME FOG AT KMPV...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF DENSE
FOG AT KMPV FROM 07Z-14Z SATURDAY...BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON SKIES
CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 241952
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
352 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST
COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY
BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND ARRIVES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A PATCH OF THICKER
CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDINESS CROSSING WESTERN NY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST AND THIN OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING...LEAVING PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN MOST AREAS. THE WESTERN EDGE OF
LOWER CLOUD COVER FROM THE EAST COAST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CLIP LEWIS
COUNTY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS TOO SHOULD THIN OUT DURING THE
EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS SLOWLY AWAY.

OTHERWISE A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER LAKES
THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE A TRANQUIL AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY
CLEAR EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT AN AREA OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
UPSTREAM OVER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD AND INTO WESTERN NY...WITH THICKENING CLOUD COVER SUPPORTED
BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR LATE OCTOBER...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ON
THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 40S IN THE COOLER MORE SHELTERED INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. THE TUG HILL MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

SATURDAY MORNING THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST AND QUICKLY WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

DURING THE AFTERNOON A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARDS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
CROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG
DPVA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 150+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET AND AREA OF
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. PWAT VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MORE THAN AMPLE FOR LATE FALL. THIS SHOULD ALL COME
TOGETHER WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT
TO PRODUCE A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THE LIFTED INDEX DROPS TO -1C TO -3C DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH STRONG FORCING MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN WIDELY
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
BENEATH THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

A BRIEF WINDOW OF 850MB TEMPS AROUND +7C JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS...IN THE MID 60S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME OF THE WARMER
SPOTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES MAY REACH THE
UPPER 60S. IT WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO
ROCHESTER WHERE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEMES SUGGEST GUSTS IN
THE 35-40 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYS TWO SHORTWAVES...A
COMPACT SHORTWAVE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF LAKE  WINNIPEG...AND A
SECOND MORE BROAD WAVE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE KEY OVER THIS UPCOMING TIMEFRAME.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
SATURDAY...WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY THE
SATURDAY EVENING...THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD. ALOFT THE
SHORTWAVE WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE WAVE STILL CROSSING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. ANY
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY WILL END EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING...THOUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...AND UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WILL DROP TO AROUND
-1C OVER LAKE ONTARIO...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER LAKE ERIE. THE
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL BE UP TO 10-12K FEET AND THERE
WILL ALSO BE LITTLE WIND SHEAR. THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL AID TO DEVELOP A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN OVERNIGHT
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE GREATER AMBIENT SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
RESIDES.

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
FALL APART THROUGH THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE
SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST.

THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR QUIET AND
DRY CONDITIONS. LATER MONDAY MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHWARD
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION MAY BRING A SHOWER FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD TO
BRUSH BY FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL NOW BE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE ROCKIES WHERE IT WILL CARRY AND DEEPEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FROM NEAR IOWA MONDAY EVENING TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT STRENGTHENING ON THIS DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...AND LAKE ONTARIO REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND AREAS JUST TO THE EAST AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION.

AFTER THIS WARM FRONT PASSES...AND WITH DAYTIME MIXING THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. HIGH
CHANCES POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS PASS ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...AND AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS A FEW
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A WESTERLY FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL THIS TIME PERIOD...AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH
THE 40S...WITH WARMEST AREAS UNDER LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SUNDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...AND THAT AT LOW TO MID 50S.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION AND SKIES CLEAR...SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. AGAIN WARMEST
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME LINGER LOW CLOUDS
WILL RESIDE.

GRADUALLY WARMING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUCH THAT THERE MAY BE A FEW
70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE MODELS QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND PRECIPITATION...NEAR RECORD WARMTH SEEMS LESS LIKELY NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY THAN TUESDAY...WITH MID 50S COMMON.
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG
WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A WINDIER DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE
INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND SOUTH OF BUFFALO
TOWARD JAMESTOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY...WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ONLY AROUND 5K
FEET. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS
LOW...AND HAVE LEFT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR
THE HUDSON BAY SHIFTS NORTH AND EASTWARD. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. A PATCH OF
THICKER CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE BACK EDGE OF LOWER VFR LEVEL CLOUDS FROM A
COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND TUG
HILL REGION AT TIMES. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MAINLY
SKC.

TONIGHT AN AREA OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UPSTREAM OVER MICHIGAN
WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z. THIS WILL SPREAD A DECK OF
LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE REGION WITH A MIX OF LOW END VFR AND MVFR
CIGS. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND BREAK UP
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR. DURING THE AFTERNOON A
COLD FRONT AND POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CIGS WILL
INITIALLY BE VFR AS THE SHOWERS DEVELOP...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. VSBY SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR
FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SHOWERS LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE
NORTH COUNTRY MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN ANY HEAVIER
AND MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF
THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH WINDS AND WAVES COMING
BACK DOWN THIS EVENING. ON LAKE ERIE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO THIS EVENING WITH WINDS AND WAVES REMAINING JUST BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON SATURDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE LOWER LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE ON BOTH LAKES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
THEN BECOME WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY INCREASE
FURTHER TO 30 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO DURING THAT TIME FRAME AS COLD
AIR DEEPENS AND PROMOTES STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
MIXING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE LOWER LAKES BY MONDAY AND BRING AN END TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
         FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 241952
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
352 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST
COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY
BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND ARRIVES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A PATCH OF THICKER
CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDINESS CROSSING WESTERN NY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST AND THIN OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING...LEAVING PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN MOST AREAS. THE WESTERN EDGE OF
LOWER CLOUD COVER FROM THE EAST COAST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CLIP LEWIS
COUNTY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS TOO SHOULD THIN OUT DURING THE
EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS SLOWLY AWAY.

OTHERWISE A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER LAKES
THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE A TRANQUIL AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY
CLEAR EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT AN AREA OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
UPSTREAM OVER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD AND INTO WESTERN NY...WITH THICKENING CLOUD COVER SUPPORTED
BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR LATE OCTOBER...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ON
THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 40S IN THE COOLER MORE SHELTERED INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. THE TUG HILL MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

SATURDAY MORNING THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST AND QUICKLY WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

DURING THE AFTERNOON A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARDS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
CROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG
DPVA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 150+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET AND AREA OF
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. PWAT VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MORE THAN AMPLE FOR LATE FALL. THIS SHOULD ALL COME
TOGETHER WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT
TO PRODUCE A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THE LIFTED INDEX DROPS TO -1C TO -3C DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH STRONG FORCING MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN WIDELY
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
BENEATH THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

A BRIEF WINDOW OF 850MB TEMPS AROUND +7C JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS...IN THE MID 60S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME OF THE WARMER
SPOTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES MAY REACH THE
UPPER 60S. IT WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO
ROCHESTER WHERE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEMES SUGGEST GUSTS IN
THE 35-40 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYS TWO SHORTWAVES...A
COMPACT SHORTWAVE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF LAKE  WINNIPEG...AND A
SECOND MORE BROAD WAVE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE KEY OVER THIS UPCOMING TIMEFRAME.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
SATURDAY...WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY THE
SATURDAY EVENING...THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD. ALOFT THE
SHORTWAVE WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE WAVE STILL CROSSING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. ANY
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY WILL END EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING...THOUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...AND UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WILL DROP TO AROUND
-1C OVER LAKE ONTARIO...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER LAKE ERIE. THE
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL BE UP TO 10-12K FEET AND THERE
WILL ALSO BE LITTLE WIND SHEAR. THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL AID TO DEVELOP A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN OVERNIGHT
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE GREATER AMBIENT SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
RESIDES.

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
FALL APART THROUGH THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE
SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST.

THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR QUIET AND
DRY CONDITIONS. LATER MONDAY MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHWARD
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION MAY BRING A SHOWER FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD TO
BRUSH BY FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL NOW BE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE ROCKIES WHERE IT WILL CARRY AND DEEPEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FROM NEAR IOWA MONDAY EVENING TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT STRENGTHENING ON THIS DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...AND LAKE ONTARIO REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND AREAS JUST TO THE EAST AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION.

AFTER THIS WARM FRONT PASSES...AND WITH DAYTIME MIXING THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. HIGH
CHANCES POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS PASS ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...AND AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS A FEW
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A WESTERLY FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL THIS TIME PERIOD...AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH
THE 40S...WITH WARMEST AREAS UNDER LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SUNDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...AND THAT AT LOW TO MID 50S.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION AND SKIES CLEAR...SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. AGAIN WARMEST
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME LINGER LOW CLOUDS
WILL RESIDE.

GRADUALLY WARMING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUCH THAT THERE MAY BE A FEW
70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE MODELS QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND PRECIPITATION...NEAR RECORD WARMTH SEEMS LESS LIKELY NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY THAN TUESDAY...WITH MID 50S COMMON.
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG
WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A WINDIER DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE
INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND SOUTH OF BUFFALO
TOWARD JAMESTOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY...WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ONLY AROUND 5K
FEET. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS
LOW...AND HAVE LEFT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR
THE HUDSON BAY SHIFTS NORTH AND EASTWARD. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. A PATCH OF
THICKER CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE BACK EDGE OF LOWER VFR LEVEL CLOUDS FROM A
COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND TUG
HILL REGION AT TIMES. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MAINLY
SKC.

TONIGHT AN AREA OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UPSTREAM OVER MICHIGAN
WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z. THIS WILL SPREAD A DECK OF
LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE REGION WITH A MIX OF LOW END VFR AND MVFR
CIGS. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND BREAK UP
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR. DURING THE AFTERNOON A
COLD FRONT AND POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CIGS WILL
INITIALLY BE VFR AS THE SHOWERS DEVELOP...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. VSBY SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR
FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SHOWERS LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE
NORTH COUNTRY MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN ANY HEAVIER
AND MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF
THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH WINDS AND WAVES COMING
BACK DOWN THIS EVENING. ON LAKE ERIE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO THIS EVENING WITH WINDS AND WAVES REMAINING JUST BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON SATURDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE LOWER LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE ON BOTH LAKES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
THEN BECOME WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY INCREASE
FURTHER TO 30 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO DURING THAT TIME FRAME AS COLD
AIR DEEPENS AND PROMOTES STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
MIXING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE LOWER LAKES BY MONDAY AND BRING AN END TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
         FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBTV 241951
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, GIVING WAY TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL RETURN
LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED
AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILD WEATHER IS IN
STORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT COMES THROUGH WITH
MORE SHOWERS FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT WEATHER WISE,
WITH THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE BEING EXACTLY WHEN THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR -- WHICH HAS A BIG POTENTIAL ON HOW COLD IT COULD GET.

AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SHOULD
CLEAR OUT DURING THE MID-EVENING, WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER PAST
MIDNIGHT FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH CLEARING FINALLY
TAKING PLACE JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS, HAVE GONE TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE
FOR EASTERN AREAS, AND A LITTLE CLOSER TO A BLEND/COOLER GUIDANCE
FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK. IN THE END IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY 30S IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK (PERHAPS SUB-FREEZING IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS OF
THE `DACKS). MEANWHILE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS VERMONT -- MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

I SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE A TOUCH OF FOG IN ANY LOCATION THAT HAS A
FEW HOURS OF CLEARING, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE CHANGEABLE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. THOSE WANTING TO DO MORE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, ESPECIALLY
REQUIRING DRY WEATHER, SHOULD PLAN FOR SATURDAY. THOSE THAT WANT
TO GO SNOWFLAKE CHASING SHOULD PLAN FOR SUNDAY. KEEP READING FOR A
LITTLE MORE SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD,
SO WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SUN, HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH, MID/LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADVECT IN
WARMER AIR ALOFT. THIS, ALONG WITH SOME SUN, SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION -- ACTUALLY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 60S OFF TO OUR WEST IN ONTARIO, I HAVE SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES. COULD BE SOME LOWER 60S IN SOME VALLEY
REGIONS (DEPENDANT UPON HOW MUCH SUN WE SEE).

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL START STREAMING IN FROM WEST TO EAST, AND
SHOULD THICKEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS TO BEGIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH IS A FAST
MOVER, SO SHOWERS WILL REACH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING
AND THEN INTO EASTERN VERMONT NO LATER THAN MID-EVENING. DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN -- LESS THAN 1/4" SHOULD
DO IT.

SATURDAY NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT WITH FLOW
TURNING NORTHWEST AND DECENT AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
AND LARGER SCALE TROUGH STILL ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WE
SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BECOME MORE OROGRAPHICALLY LOCKED.
HAVE KEPT THE IDEA OF HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE GREENS AND `DACKS,
LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO COOL, SO
THAT WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST OF ELEVATIONS
(3500FT+) BY LATE. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER
UNIFORM -- LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AT ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST
FOLKS LIVE.

SUNDAY: ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ALOFT. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP THE OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION CONTINUING. SUSPECT
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO ABOUT 2500FT BY THE AFTERNOON, AND THERE
SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES AT LEAST AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH COLD AIR COMING
IN ALOFT, THIS WILL GENERATE PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES AS WELL,
ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING TO BRING DOWN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
ANTICIPATE IT TO BE BREEZY, WITH GUSTS TO 25MPH AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT: OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS FILTERING IN. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, SO THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME -- BUT THINK 30S WILL BE WIDESPREAD
EXCEPT LOW 40S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME
LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT.
TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON
NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE
LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
AT 18Z FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWING
CEILINGS SLOWLY RISING ACROSS THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR ACROSS THE REGION BY 04Z
SATURDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...GFS LAMP GUIDANCE
HINTING AT SOME FOG AT KMPV...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF DENSE
FOG AT KMPV FROM 07Z-14Z SATURDAY...BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON SKIES
CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241951
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, GIVING WAY TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL RETURN
LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED
AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILD WEATHER IS IN
STORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT COMES THROUGH WITH
MORE SHOWERS FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT WEATHER WISE,
WITH THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE BEING EXACTLY WHEN THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR -- WHICH HAS A BIG POTENTIAL ON HOW COLD IT COULD GET.

AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SHOULD
CLEAR OUT DURING THE MID-EVENING, WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER PAST
MIDNIGHT FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH CLEARING FINALLY
TAKING PLACE JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS, HAVE GONE TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE
FOR EASTERN AREAS, AND A LITTLE CLOSER TO A BLEND/COOLER GUIDANCE
FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK. IN THE END IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY 30S IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK (PERHAPS SUB-FREEZING IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS OF
THE `DACKS). MEANWHILE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS VERMONT -- MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

I SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE A TOUCH OF FOG IN ANY LOCATION THAT HAS A
FEW HOURS OF CLEARING, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE CHANGEABLE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. THOSE WANTING TO DO MORE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, ESPECIALLY
REQUIRING DRY WEATHER, SHOULD PLAN FOR SATURDAY. THOSE THAT WANT
TO GO SNOWFLAKE CHASING SHOULD PLAN FOR SUNDAY. KEEP READING FOR A
LITTLE MORE SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD,
SO WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SUN, HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH, MID/LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADVECT IN
WARMER AIR ALOFT. THIS, ALONG WITH SOME SUN, SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION -- ACTUALLY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 60S OFF TO OUR WEST IN ONTARIO, I HAVE SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES. COULD BE SOME LOWER 60S IN SOME VALLEY
REGIONS (DEPENDANT UPON HOW MUCH SUN WE SEE).

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL START STREAMING IN FROM WEST TO EAST, AND
SHOULD THICKEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS TO BEGIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH IS A FAST
MOVER, SO SHOWERS WILL REACH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING
AND THEN INTO EASTERN VERMONT NO LATER THAN MID-EVENING. DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN -- LESS THAN 1/4" SHOULD
DO IT.

SATURDAY NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT WITH FLOW
TURNING NORTHWEST AND DECENT AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
AND LARGER SCALE TROUGH STILL ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WE
SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BECOME MORE OROGRAPHICALLY LOCKED.
HAVE KEPT THE IDEA OF HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE GREENS AND `DACKS,
LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO COOL, SO
THAT WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST OF ELEVATIONS
(3500FT+) BY LATE. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER
UNIFORM -- LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AT ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST
FOLKS LIVE.

SUNDAY: ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ALOFT. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP THE OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION CONTINUING. SUSPECT
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO ABOUT 2500FT BY THE AFTERNOON, AND THERE
SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES AT LEAST AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH COLD AIR COMING
IN ALOFT, THIS WILL GENERATE PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES AS WELL,
ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING TO BRING DOWN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
ANTICIPATE IT TO BE BREEZY, WITH GUSTS TO 25MPH AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT: OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS FILTERING IN. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, SO THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME -- BUT THINK 30S WILL BE WIDESPREAD
EXCEPT LOW 40S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME
LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT.
TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON
NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE
LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
AT 18Z FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWING
CEILINGS SLOWLY RISING ACROSS THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR ACROSS THE REGION BY 04Z
SATURDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...GFS LAMP GUIDANCE
HINTING AT SOME FOG AT KMPV...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF DENSE
FOG AT KMPV FROM 07Z-14Z SATURDAY...BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON SKIES
CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH




000
FXUS61 KALY 241950
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
350 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEK WILL PULL AWAY TONIGHT.  A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRISK AND
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...1KM VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS THE BACK EDGE OF
THE CLOUDS WAS OVER OUR WESTERN CWA BORDER. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT POSITIVE TRENDS WITH THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF
THE COASTAL LOW. SO THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES TO OUR WEST
AND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW SHOULD SLOWLY YIELD SKY IMPROVEMENTS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. IF SKIES WERE TO CLEAR
COMPLETELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW AND NARROW SHORT WAVE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES COULD DIP AT OR
BELOW 40F. PER THE LATEST LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE TRENDS AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVED TEMPERATURES THIS FRIDAY MORNING...WE WILL FAVOR A COOLER MIN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM A FAST MOVING JET ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER COINCIDING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
WINNIPEG WILL BE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM REGIONAL U.S./CANADIAN REGIONAL MOSAIC RADARS
SUGGEST MINIMAL MOISTURE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVES INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION MAY ASSIST WITH
SHALLOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW.
SO THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS
OF THE DACK WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS INTO NW CT KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AT THE PRESENT TIME. AS MORE PEAKS OF SUN ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MIXING POTENTIAL...WE WILL WARM
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS /PERHAPS LOWER 60S
FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS/ AND LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLIDES WELL EAST OF THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED /AT BEST/. HOWEVER...THE COLD
UPPER LOW AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST /MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AT OR BELOW 0C BY
MORNING SO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MIXING OF SNOW.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE TRANSVERSING THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THE
OTHER METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
TAP INTO THE MID-UPR 30KT RANGE SO A RATHER BRISK DAY IS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH THE CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW-MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW TRACKS WELL EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST PER NCEP MODEL CONSENSUS. A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
SHOWER TREND DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH IMPROVING SKY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOS VALUES ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE /WITHIN 1-2 DEGREES/ AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT BECOMING UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT
ALSO TREND COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A DEPARTING COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO KEEP BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS MVFR DUE TO CIGS. THERE MAY BE A FEW POCKETS OF -DZ
AROUND KALB FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL
PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CIGS
BEGIN TO RISE. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTN...AND START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL STORM
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY.

MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE JUST SCT T0 FEW CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT. IF
ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS...THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME IFR BR/FG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...OTHERWISE FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR ALL SITES WITH LIGHT WEST T0
NORTHWEST WINDS.

SOME CLOUDS /MAINLY OF THE HIGHER VARIETY/ LOOK TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND KGFL...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE COOL AND WET
PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MOST OF SATURDAY. FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30MPH EXPECTED.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ..AND REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED DURING THE WEEKEND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 241950
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
350 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEK WILL PULL AWAY TONIGHT.  A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRISK AND
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...1KM VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS THE BACK EDGE OF
THE CLOUDS WAS OVER OUR WESTERN CWA BORDER. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT POSITIVE TRENDS WITH THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF
THE COASTAL LOW. SO THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES TO OUR WEST
AND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW SHOULD SLOWLY YIELD SKY IMPROVEMENTS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. IF SKIES WERE TO CLEAR
COMPLETELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW AND NARROW SHORT WAVE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES COULD DIP AT OR
BELOW 40F. PER THE LATEST LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE TRENDS AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVED TEMPERATURES THIS FRIDAY MORNING...WE WILL FAVOR A COOLER MIN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM A FAST MOVING JET ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER COINCIDING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
WINNIPEG WILL BE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM REGIONAL U.S./CANADIAN REGIONAL MOSAIC RADARS
SUGGEST MINIMAL MOISTURE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVES INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION MAY ASSIST WITH
SHALLOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW.
SO THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS
OF THE DACK WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS INTO NW CT KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AT THE PRESENT TIME. AS MORE PEAKS OF SUN ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MIXING POTENTIAL...WE WILL WARM
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS /PERHAPS LOWER 60S
FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS/ AND LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLIDES WELL EAST OF THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED /AT BEST/. HOWEVER...THE COLD
UPPER LOW AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST /MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AT OR BELOW 0C BY
MORNING SO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MIXING OF SNOW.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE TRANSVERSING THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THE
OTHER METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
TAP INTO THE MID-UPR 30KT RANGE SO A RATHER BRISK DAY IS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH THE CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW-MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW TRACKS WELL EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST PER NCEP MODEL CONSENSUS. A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
SHOWER TREND DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH IMPROVING SKY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOS VALUES ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE /WITHIN 1-2 DEGREES/ AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT BECOMING UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT
ALSO TREND COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A DEPARTING COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO KEEP BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS MVFR DUE TO CIGS. THERE MAY BE A FEW POCKETS OF -DZ
AROUND KALB FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL
PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CIGS
BEGIN TO RISE. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTN...AND START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL STORM
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY.

MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE JUST SCT T0 FEW CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT. IF
ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS...THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME IFR BR/FG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...OTHERWISE FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR ALL SITES WITH LIGHT WEST T0
NORTHWEST WINDS.

SOME CLOUDS /MAINLY OF THE HIGHER VARIETY/ LOOK TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND KGFL...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE COOL AND WET
PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MOST OF SATURDAY. FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30MPH EXPECTED.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ..AND REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED DURING THE WEEKEND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KOKX 241927
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO DEPART TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH...AND TO 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONT.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S...WHILE
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 40S. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING SUNDAY.
ITS RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH DURING MONDAY...AND WILL BE OFFSHORE
ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER ALL THREE DAYS...BUT BREEZY ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY...BUT A LITTLE COOLER ON MONDAY
DUE TO MORE LIMITED MIXING. A RETURN FLOW WITH SW WINDS WILL HELP
PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMALS ON TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE SLOW DUE TO THE FRONT BECOMING
ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE DAYTIME HOURS OF WEDS HAVE THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

MODELS DIFFER FOR FRIDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS ECMWF WITH A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION. SUPPORT FROM
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE NOT GREAT SO FAR...BUT WORTH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC
POPS.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

VFR EXPECTED REGIONWIDE TONIGHT AS BROKEN CLOUD DECK DISSIPATES
AFTER SUNSET. VFR IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

NW FLOW/GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIND
REMAINING RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS EVENING. WIND GRADUALLY
BECOMING WESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.  GUSTY NW WINDS TO
30KT LIKELY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IN CIGS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 30 KT ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...ALLOWING FOR TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SEAS AND WINDS INCREASING
TO SMALL CRAFT. WILL PUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR ALL WATERS
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AT MIDNIGHT WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.

SCA CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS SUNDAY WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW. WINDS
THEN SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD...SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR ALL
WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SW RETURN FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT ON TUESDAY...BUT GUSTS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN COULD BE
MARGINALLY AT SCA LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 241827
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
227 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY RESULTING IN
DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
225 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE STACKED UPPR LVL LOW THAT HAVE CAUSED UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
DAYS HAVE FINALLY MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT IT NO LONGER IMPACTS
OUR WEATHER PATTERN. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TODAY NEAR
NOVA SCOTIA. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD WE WILL GO
INTO SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.

IT APPEARS THAT ALL SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY SOME VIRGA IS LEFT. THE CLOUD COVERAGE HAVE ALSO
DISSIPATED MUCH QUICKER THAN EXPECTED WHICH ALSO HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA THAT HAVE SEEN LOTS OF SUNSHINE TO REBOUND QUITE
NICELY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPR
50S TO LOW 60S. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES BEFORE
SUNSET.

A VERY WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE... EXPECT THIS WAVE TO
JUST PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS... MAINLY CIRRUS. IT APPEARS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY THIS WILL BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY.

TONIGHT THE STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO SINK SOUTH ALONG THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP US UNDER WEAK RIDING ALOFT ALLOWING SFC
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY AND PA. THE
EVENING WILL START OUT AS MOSTLY CLEAR AND BY SUNRISE EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE WEST DUE TO THE ADVANCING
SYSTEM. SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT... TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE UPR 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
225 PM EDT UPDATE...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TO THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER... DUE TO A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING... EXPECT AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS TO REMAIN
DRY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
START TO IMPACT THE CWA BY EJECTING A VORTICITY MAX ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE AROUND THE FINGER LAKES REGION... WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY... AND THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU. THIS SYSTEM HAS
IMPRESSIVE UPPR LVL DYNAMICS BUT LACKS MOISTURE... THUS DO NOT
EXPECT HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ATTENDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM.  WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY POST FRONTAL AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE MSLP INCREASES ACROSS THE CWA.

AFTER THE FIRST INITIAL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA A SECONDARY
WAVE THEN WILL QUICKLY DROP AND FOLLOW IN IT`S WAKE. THIS MAY
CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
SHORTLY AFTER THAT... LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
LASTING THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL BECOME MORE FALL LIKE AS THE
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
125 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM MVG IN
TUE NGT INTO WED MRNG. WHILE GFS HAS COME ONBOARD WITH EC
REGARDING TIMING OF FROPA LATE TUE NGT, LATEST CMC IS SLOWER AND
DOES NOT BRING FROPA THRU UNTIL WED MRNG. EITHER WAY, HV GONE WITH
WPC GUIDANCE FOR SYSTEM WITH CHC SHOWERS. NW FLOW WL FOLLOW SYSTEM
AS IT PUSHES INTO EASTERN CANADA, SETTING THE STAGE FOR LK EFFECT
SHOWERS UNTIL HIPRES BUILDS IN ON THUR.

TEMPS WL CLIMB WELL ABV NORMAL ON TUE AHD OF SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 70S DRG THE AFTN. CDFNT PASSAGE WL
QUICKLY DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TWD NORMAL VALUES THRU THE END OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
FEW-SCT VFR CLDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR TOWARD
00Z. NEXT AREA OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AFTER 07Z AHEAD OF NEXT
WAVE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT RME AND ITH WITH
ELM POSSIBLY DROPPING BRIEFLY TO IFR.

WINDS OUT OF THE NW 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS APPCHG 20KTS UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET. THEN BECOMING LGT OUT OF THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-SUN...SPOTTY -SHRA WITH SAT EVE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL POST FRONTAL MVFR CIG INTO SUNDAY FOR NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...PVF









000
FXUS61 KBTV 241805
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY, WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE EXPECTED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT FRIDAY...WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON REFRESH OF THE
FORECAST I HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES OTHER THAN "IN THE WEEDS"
SORT OF STUFF TO MESH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST UP WITH
THE MOST RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE/OBSERVATION TRENDS.

SLOOOOOOW IMPROVEMENT IS UNDERWAY. ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OR DRIZZLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHEN YOU GET UP
INTO THE CLOUDS.

OUTSIDE OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THERE ARE A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN, THE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GO NOWHERE. FOR EXAMPLE, HERE AT
BTV WE ARE NOW 45F UP 3 WHOLE DEGREES FROM THE MORNING LOW.
MONTPELIER HAS ONLY RISEN 2 DEGREES (NOW 42 VS 40 FOR LOW). THE
PRIOR ADJUSTEMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...VARIABLE CLOUDS THEN GRADUALLY TREND
PTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS ACROSS THE
AREA. ADVECTIVE PROCESSES NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND WITH AT LEAST
SOME LINGERING/PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND NEAR SEASONAL LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RATHER
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING ESE INTO OUR REGION WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL ARRIVE IN TWO BUNDLES...THE
FIRST OCCURRING BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THE SECOND DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. LATEST NWP TRENDS SUGGEST BETTER DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WHERE IVE OFFERED A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS
(50-70%). QPF NOT ALL THAT HEAVY GIVEN CONTINENTAL SOURCE REGION OF
THE FEATURE...BUT A GOOD BET THAT MANY AREAS WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL BE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE 925 MB THERMAL
PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. BY SUNDAY...ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HERALD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS (46 TO 54). AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...PCPN WILL
LIKELY TREND TO SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME
LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT.
TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON
NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE
LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
AT 18Z FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWING
CEILINGS SLOWLY RISING ACROSS THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR ACROSS THE REGION BY 04Z
SATURDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...GFS LAMP GUIDANCE
HINTING AT SOME FOG AT KMPV...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF DENSE
FOG AT KMPV FROM 07Z-14Z SATURDAY...BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON SKIES
CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 241753
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
153 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM THE FINGER
LAKES EASTWARD GIVING WAY TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL THEN PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING FULL SUNSHINE
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA. AN AREA OF THICKER CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE
STATE WITH SOME LIMITED SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF A LOWER CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST
COAST STORM WILL CONTINUE TO CLIP MAINLY EASTERN LEWIS COUNTY WITH
SOME CLOUD COVER.

WITH THE SUNSHINE AND 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING BETWEEN +6C AND
+9C...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD LARGELY REACH INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE
TODAY...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
THE WARMEST TEMPS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING LOW CLOUDS OVER TIME...
WITH THIS TREND MOST PRONOUNCED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 40S. THE WARMEST OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE...WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP READINGS
FROM FALLING BELOW THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE COUNTRY THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...AND AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OFF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL BE THE LATEST TO SUPPORT THIS PATTERN...AS IT WILL DIRECT A
DEEP PACIFIC FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48. AS WAS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...ANY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED
UP IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC.

MEANWHILE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF
THIS PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT EAST WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AS A DIRECT RESULT OF A VERY POTENT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST DURING REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE OVERALL FLOW PROGRESSIVE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THIS RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NEAR RECORD
HIGHS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MORE ON THIS IN THE
LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.

A PAIR OF POTENT SHORTWAVES RACING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN A
130KT H25 JET WILL DIG OUT A FRESH LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD ON SATURDAY. A
CORRESPONDING SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
IN THE PROCESS...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE...THE DAY SHOULD BE
LARGELY PCPN FREE WITH ONLY SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WITH
QPF GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE ACTIVITY COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (NORTH OF TUG). WILL
LEAVE LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THAT AREA. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WITH 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOMEWHAT CHILLY AIR WILL RACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OUR
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO C AND THIS WILL SET UP ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE LAKES TO GENERATE SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
BULK OF THESE WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT. OVER LAKE ERIE...A SERIOUS LACK OF
MOISTURE ABV 5K FT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LAKE DRIVEN SHOWERS...
ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STRONG CHANNELLED VORTICITY OVER THE REGION COULD
HELP TO GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES EARLY IN THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S.

IT WILL BE BRISK AND COOL ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL
FIND OURSELVES SANDWICHED BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A VERY COOL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR (ALBEIT
PACIFIC MODIFIED) OVER OUR REGION WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE FOUND UNDER THE CORE OF A STRONG UL JET.
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE TUG FROM CONTINUED
MESOSCALE LAKE DRIVEN PROCESSES...WHICH BY THE WAY WILL WEAKEN AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL THEN NOSE NORTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENSURE A FAIR DRY NIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANY LINGERING NUISANCE LAKE RAIN SHOWERS ENDING
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

ON MONDAY...BROAD RIDGING WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THE
ENSUING WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR REGION WILL GENERATE SOME HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT A WEALTH OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THE EXPECTATION THAT THE STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A NICE DRY
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...SINUSOIDAL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ENSURE THAT
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. THE WARMEST DAY
WILL BE RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY WHEN A BROAD
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PUMP ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR
ACROSS OUR REGION.

H85 TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO ARND 12C BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...
AND WHEN FULLY MIXED...THIS WOULD SUPPORT NEAR RECORD MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. RECORDS FOR TUESDAY INCLUDE BUF 74 IN 1946...
ROC 76 IN 1984...AND WATERTOWN 75 ALSO IN 1984. THERE WILL BE A COLD
FRONT BEARING DOWN ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THOUGH...SO CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A SCREECHING HALT TO
THE SOARING TEMPS. THE FRONT IS SOME 3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL POUR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN
SET UP THE CHANCE FOR A MINIMAL LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME SHOWERS EAST
OF LK ONTARIO.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE A POOL OF PACIFICALLY
MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR WILL GLANCE BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A PAIR OF SEASONABLY COOL DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. A PATCH OF
THICKER CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE BACK EDGE OF LOWER VFR LEVEL CLOUDS FROM A
COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND TUG
HILL REGION AT TIMES. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MAINLY
SKC.

TONIGHT AN AREA OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UPSTREAM OVER MICHIGAN
WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z. THIS WILL SPREAD A DECK OF
LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE REGION WITH A MIX OF LOW END VFR AND MVFR
CIGS. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND BREAK UP
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR. DURING THE AFTERNOON A
COLD FRONT AND POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CIGS WILL
INITIALLY BE VFR AS THE SHOWERS DEVELOP...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. VSBY SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR
FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SHOWERS LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE
NORTH COUNTRY MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN ANY HEAVIER
AND MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF
THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS...A MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY
TODAY AND BRIEFLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE WEAKENING
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END
ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AREAWIDE.

OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION...AND SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SOLID ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES...BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING ON LAKE ERIE...AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JJR






000
FXUS61 KBTV 241739
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
139 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY, WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE EXPECTED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT FRIDAY...WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON REFRESH OF THE
FORECAST I HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES OTHER THAN "IN THE WEEDS"
SORT OF STUFF TO MESH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST UP WITH
THE MOST RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE/OBSERVATION TRENDS.

SLOOOOOOW IMPROVEMENT IS UNDERWAY. ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OR DRIZZLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHEN YOU GET UP
INTO THE CLOUDS.

OUTSIDE OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THERE ARE A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN, THE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GO NOWHERE. FOR EXAMPLE, HERE AT
BTV WE ARE NOW 45F UP 3 WHOLE DEGREES FROM THE MORNING LOW.
MONTPELIER HAS ONLY RISEN 2 DEGREES (NOW 42 VS 40 FOR LOW). THE
PRIOR ADJUSTEMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...VARIABLE CLOUDS THEN GRADUALLY TREND
PTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS ACROSS THE
AREA. ADVECTIVE PROCESSES NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND WITH AT LEAST
SOME LINGERING/PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND NEAR SEASONAL LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RATHER
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING ESE INTO OUR REGION WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL ARRIVE IN TWO BUNDLES...THE
FIRST OCCURRING BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THE SECOND DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. LATEST NWP TRENDS SUGGEST BETTER DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WHERE IVE OFFERED A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS
(50-70%). QPF NOT ALL THAT HEAVY GIVEN CONTINENTAL SOURCE REGION OF
THE FEATURE...BUT A GOOD BET THAT MANY AREAS WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL BE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE 925 MB THERMAL
PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. BY SUNDAY...ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HERALD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS (46 TO 54). AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...PCPN WILL
LIKELY TREND TO SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME
LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT.
TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON
NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE
LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A MIX OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS
WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MVFR
VSBY REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH 16Z FROM KSLK EASTWARD AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 16Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A
SHARP IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT REVEALING MID/HIGH VFR DECK. ALL SITES ARE VFR AFTER
00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SATURDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241737
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
137 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...EXPECT A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY DUE TO AN
ABUNDANCE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR REGION...SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING TO THE WEST...AND NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH...AND TO 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WITH CAA AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID
40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC.

DRY AND MILD ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST AS THE FRONT APPEARS WILL COME THROUGH DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE
WEST.

TEMPO MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE EASTERN TERMINALS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND DISTANT ATLANTIC LOW. VFR
EXPECTED REGIONWIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP A BROKEN STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000 FT UNTIL
TONIGHT.

NW FLOW/GUSTS TO 25KT THROUGH 22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND REMAINING RIGHT
OF 310 MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IN CIGS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 30 KT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE NE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
THEREFORE..THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THERE MAY HOWEVER BE A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25
KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
REMAIN ON THE REST OF THE WATERS.

BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS









000
FXUS61 KALY 241736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...WHILE SHOWERS HAVE ALL BEEN DIMINISHED...POCKETS
OF DRIZZLE REMAIN. WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWER/DRIZZLE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE PER THE 1KM VIS SAT IMAGERY WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST OVER OUR WESTERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THESE
BREAKS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD LATE IN THE DAY.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME REMAINS DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW
PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH THE
CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A DEPARTING COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO KEEP BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS MVFR DUE TO CIGS. THERE MAY BE A FEW POCKETS OF -DZ
AROUND KALB FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL
PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CIGS
BEGIN TO RISE. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTN...AND START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL STORM
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY.

MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE JUST SCT T0 FEW CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT. IF
ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS...THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME IFR BR/FG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...OTHERWISE FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR ALL SITES WITH LIGHT WEST T0
NORTHWEST WINDS.

SOME CLOUDS /MAINLY OF THE HIGHER VARIETY/ LOOK TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND KGFL...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KBGM 241726
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
126 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY EASTWARD TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR AND BREEZY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM EDT UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY ENDING ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING
AND SOME SUNSHINE HAVE RETURNED OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS. STILL
EXPECT CLOUD COVERAGE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. RIDGING ALOFT IS
STARTING TO MOVE OVER WESTERN NY/PA AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EAST TODAY AS THE UPPR LOW THAT HAS PRODUCES RAIN LIFTS TO
THE NORTH. THUS... AFTER THE SHOWERS END THIS MORNING EXPECT TODAY
TO BE DRY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPR LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS NEXT S/WV
MOVS INTO THE CNTRL GTLAKES TDA. CLDS THIS MRNG WITH SOME -RA OR
DZ ACRS ERN ZONES. CLEARING XPCTD TO PROGRESS STEADILY BUT SLOWLY
EWD TDA. ATTM THINK THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLDS WILL BE NEAR THE RT
81 CORRIDOR IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. WRN CATSKILLS PRBLY WON`T SEE
BREAKS UNTIL LATE TDA. MAXES IN THE U50S TO NEAR 60 WRN ZONES
WHERE MORE SS WILL OCCUR...L50S ACRS PORTIONS OF THE SRN CATSKILLS
WHERE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST LONGEST. NW WINDS GNRLY 10-20 KTS.

WE`LL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES TNGT BEFORE CLDS INCREASE
IN ADVANCE OF THE NXT S/WV LATE TNGT DUE TO WAA AND WEAK ISEN
LIFT. MINS GNRLY FROM THE U30 TO L40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VARYING AMTS OF CLDS ON SATURDAY DUE TO MRNG WAA...THEN SOME
IMPRVMNT PSBL IN THE AFTN BEFORE MORE CLDS ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY
AS THE CDFNT APRCHS. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE L60S ACRS MANY AREAS. CHC POPS LATE IN DAY FOR
-SHRA FROM STEUBEN INTO ONEIDA COUNTY...WITH CHC POPS MIGRATING
SEWD ON SAT EVNG TO COVER MUCH OF CNTRL NY. GOOD DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT NOT ALOT OF MSTR. WEAK LAKE INFLUENCE COMBINED
WITH ANOTHER S/WV KEEPS CHC POPS ACRS FAR NRN ZONES ON SUNDAY INTO
SUN EVNG WHERE CLDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...WITH PC SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. BLUSTERY NW WINDS XPCTD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
125 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM MVG IN
TUE NGT INTO WED MRNG. WHILE GFS HAS COME ONBOARD WITH EC
REGARDING TIMING OF FROPA LATE TUE NGT, LATEST CMC IS SLOWER AND
DOES NOT BRING FROPA THRU UNTIL WED MRNG. EITHER WAY, HV GONE WITH
WPC GUIDANCE FOR SYSTEM WITH CHC SHOWERS. NW FLOW WL FOLLOW SYSTEM
AS IT PUSHES INTO EASTERN CANADA, SETTING THE STAGE FOR LK EFFECT
SHOWERS UNTIL HIPRES BUILDS IN ON THUR.

TEMPS WL CLIMB WELL ABV NORMAL ON TUE AHD OF SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 70S DRG THE AFTN. CDFNT PASSAGE WL
QUICKLY DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TWD NORMAL VALUES THRU THE END OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
FEW-SCT VFR CLDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR TOWARD
00Z. NEXT AREA OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AFTER 07Z AHEAD OF NEXT
WAVE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT RME AND ITH WITH
ELM POSSIBLY DROPPING BRIEFLY TO IFR.

WINDS OUT OF THE NW 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS APPCHG 20KTS UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET. THEN BECOMING LGT OUT OF THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-SUN...SPOTTY -SHRA WITH SAT EVE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL POST FRONTAL MVFR CIG INTO SUNDAY FOR NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...PVF





000
FXUS61 KALY 241710
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...WHILE SHOWERS HAVE ALL BEEN DIMINISHED...POCKETS
OF DRIZZLE REMAIN. WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWER/DRIZZLE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE PER THE 1KM VIS SAT IMAGERY WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST OVER OUR WESTERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THESE
BREAKS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD LATE IN THE DAY.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME REMAINS DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW
PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH THE
CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY DUE TO CIGS...THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN IFR
VSBY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE FORECAST MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH AROUND 15Z...THEN MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VFR
VSBYS THROUGH 18Z TO 20Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS DRIER
AIR RETURNS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AT KALB/KPSF WILL LIKELY PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

AT KPOU CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR/MVFR AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE SOME -RA THIS
MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY
TODAY...THEN EVENTUALLY TURN TO NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS
LATER TODAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KBTV 241547
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1147 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION
TODAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1140 AM EDT FRIDAY...JUST FINISHED A LITTLE BELATED LATE
MORNING UPDATE, BUT IN GENERAL THE OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

THE DEEP MOISTURE IS DEPARTING, AND BASED ON WEB CAMS AND SURFACE
OBS, THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE THAN SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN, AND THIS IS MAINLY ACROSS VERMONT. ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA, SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
POKING INTO THE LOWER 50S THERE. FOR EVERYONE ELSE, LOW-MID 40S IS
ABOUT ALL (EXCEPT THE HIGHEST PEAKS ABOVE 4000FT WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 30S WITH SOME LIGHT ICING
HAPPENING SINCE THEY ARE IN THE CLOUDS).

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, THE IMPROVEMENT PROCESS IS GOING TO
BE PAINFULLY SLOW FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. PERHAPS SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, BUT THAT WON`T BE UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNSET AT THE VERY
EARLIEST. AS A RESULT, I KNOCKED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES
FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD AS THE CLOUDS AND CONTINUED
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS ON THE COOL SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...VARIABLE CLOUDS THEN GRADUALLY TREND
PTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS ACROSS THE
AREA. ADVECTIVE PROCESSES NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND WITH AT LEAST
SOME LINGERING/PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND NEAR SEASONAL LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RATHER
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING ESE INTO OUR REGION WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL ARRIVE IN TWO BUNDLES...THE
FIRST OCCURRING BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THE SECOND DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. LATEST NWP TRENDS SUGGEST BETTER DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WHERE IVE OFFERED A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS
(50-70%). QPF NOT ALL THAT HEAVY GIVEN CONTINENTAL SOURCE REGION OF
THE FEATURE...BUT A GOOD BET THAT MANY AREAS WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL BE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE 925 MB THERMAL
PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. BY SUNDAY...ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HERALD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS (46 TO 54). AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...PCPN WILL
LIKELY TREND TO SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME
LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT.
TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON
NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE
LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A MIX OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS
WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MVFR
VSBY REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH 16Z FROM KSLK EASTWARD AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 16Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A
SHARP IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT REVEALING MID/HIGH VFR DECK. ALL SITES ARE VFR AFTER
00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SATURDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241446
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1046 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED...WITH JUST
A FEW LEFT OVER ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS.

WITH ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PARTIALLY CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING TO THE WEST...AND NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER
60S ACROSS THE URBANIZED PARTS OF NE NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH...AND TO 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WITH CAA AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID
40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC.

DRY AND MILD ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST AS THE FRONT APPEARS WILL COME THROUGH DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

TEMPO MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE EASTERN TERMINALS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND DISTANT ATLANTIC LOW. VFR
EXPECTED REGIONWIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP A BROKEN STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000 FT UNTIL
TONIGHT.

NW FLOW/GUSTS TO 25KT THROUGH 22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IN CIGS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE NE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIL 4PM ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...AS WIND GUSTS AND SEAS REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
COULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS BEFORE 4PM. THEN...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN
ON THE REST OF THE WATERS.

BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 241446
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1046 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED...WITH JUST
A FEW LEFT OVER ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS.

WITH ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PARTIALLY CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING TO THE WEST...AND NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER
60S ACROSS THE URBANIZED PARTS OF NE NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH...AND TO 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WITH CAA AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID
40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC.

DRY AND MILD ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST AS THE FRONT APPEARS WILL COME THROUGH DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

TEMPO MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE EASTERN TERMINALS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND DISTANT ATLANTIC LOW. VFR
EXPECTED REGIONWIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP A BROKEN STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000 FT UNTIL
TONIGHT.

NW FLOW/GUSTS TO 25KT THROUGH 22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IN CIGS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE NE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIL 4PM ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...AS WIND GUSTS AND SEAS REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
COULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS BEFORE 4PM. THEN...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN
ON THE REST OF THE WATERS.

BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 241442
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1042 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM THE FINGER
LAKES EASTWARD GIVING WAY TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL THEN PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS
LINGERING ACROSS GENESEE AND ORLEANS COUNTY...WITH SOME VALLEY FOG
ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE CIRRUS UPSTREAM ACROSS LAKE
ERIE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE...BUT
A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL STILL FILTER THROUGH THE CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE EAST COAST SYSTEM WILL CLIP LEWIS
COUNTY. THE FINGER LAKES AND GENESEE VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN A SQUEEZE
PLAY BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE.

WITH THE SUNSHINE AND 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING BETWEEN +6C AND
+9C...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD LARGELY REACH INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE
TODAY...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
THE WARMEST TEMPS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING LOW CLOUDS OVER TIME...
WITH THIS TREND MOST PRONOUNCED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 40S. THE WARMEST OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE...WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP READINGS
FROM FALLING BELOW THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE COUNTRY THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...AND AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OFF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL BE THE LATEST TO SUPPORT THIS PATTERN...AS IT WILL DIRECT A
DEEP PACIFIC FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48. AS WAS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...ANY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED
UP IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC.

MEANWHILE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF
THIS PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT EAST WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AS A DIRECT RESULT OF A VERY POTENT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST DURING REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE OVERALL FLOW PROGRESSIVE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THIS RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NEAR RECORD
HIGHS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MORE ON THIS IN THE
LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.

A PAIR OF POTENT SHORTWAVES RACING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN A
130KT H25 JET WILL DIG OUT A FRESH LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD ON SATURDAY. A
CORRESPONDING SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
IN THE PROCESS...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE...THE DAY SHOULD BE
LARGELY PCPN FREE WITH ONLY SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WITH
QPF GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE ACTIVITY COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (NORTH OF TUG). WILL
LEAVE LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THAT AREA. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WITH 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOMEWHAT CHILLY AIR WILL RACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OUR
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO C AND THIS WILL SET UP ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE LAKES TO GENERATE SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
BULK OF THESE WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT. OVER LAKE ERIE...A SERIOUS LACK OF
MOISTURE ABV 5K FT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LAKE DRIVEN SHOWERS...
ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STRONG CHANNELLED VORTICITY OVER THE REGION COULD
HELP TO GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES EARLY IN THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S.

IT WILL BE BRISK AND COOL ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL
FIND OURSELVES SANDWICHED BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A VERY COOL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR (ALBEIT
PACIFIC MODIFIED) OVER OUR REGION WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE FOUND UNDER THE CORE OF A STRONG UL JET.
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE TUG FROM CONTINUED
MESOSCALE LAKE DRIVEN PROCESSES...WHICH BY THE WAY WILL WEAKEN AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL THEN NOSE NORTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENSURE A FAIR DRY NIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANY LINGERING NUISANCE LAKE RAIN SHOWERS ENDING
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

ON MONDAY...BROAD RIDGING WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THE
ENSUING WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR REGION WILL GENERATE SOME HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT A WEALTH OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THE EXPECTATION THAT THE STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A NICE DRY
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...SINUSOIDAL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ENSURE THAT
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. THE WARMEST DAY
WILL BE RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY WHEN A BROAD
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PUMP ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR
ACROSS OUR REGION.

H85 TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO ARND 12C BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...
AND WHEN FULLY MIXED...THIS WOULD SUPPORT NEAR RECORD MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. RECORDS FOR TUESDAY INCLUDE BUF 74 IN 1946...
ROC 76 IN 1984...AND WATERTOWN 75 ALSO IN 1984. THERE WILL BE A COLD
FRONT BEARING DOWN ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THOUGH...SO CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A SCREECHING HALT TO
THE SOARING TEMPS. THE FRONT IS SOME 3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL POUR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN
SET UP THE CHANCE FOR A MINIMAL LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME SHOWERS EAST
OF LK ONTARIO.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE A POOL OF PACIFICALLY
MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR WILL GLANCE BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A PAIR OF SEASONABLY COOL DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOME
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCAL
IFR THROUGH ABOUT 16Z BEFORE BURNING OFF.

OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AREAWIDE TODAY...WITH SOME CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUDINESS DRIFTING INTO WESTERN NY...AND SOME LOWER VFR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...
AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. IN TURN...THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LOWER-END VFR OR EVEN MVFR CLOUD COVER OVER
TIME.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS...A MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY
TODAY AND BRIEFLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE WEAKENING
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END
ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AREAWIDE.

OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION...AND SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SOLID ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES...BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING ON LAKE ERIE...AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/JJR
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 241442
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1042 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM THE FINGER
LAKES EASTWARD GIVING WAY TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL THEN PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS
LINGERING ACROSS GENESEE AND ORLEANS COUNTY...WITH SOME VALLEY FOG
ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE CIRRUS UPSTREAM ACROSS LAKE
ERIE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE...BUT
A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL STILL FILTER THROUGH THE CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE EAST COAST SYSTEM WILL CLIP LEWIS
COUNTY. THE FINGER LAKES AND GENESEE VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN A SQUEEZE
PLAY BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE.

WITH THE SUNSHINE AND 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING BETWEEN +6C AND
+9C...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD LARGELY REACH INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE
TODAY...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
THE WARMEST TEMPS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING LOW CLOUDS OVER TIME...
WITH THIS TREND MOST PRONOUNCED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 40S. THE WARMEST OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE...WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP READINGS
FROM FALLING BELOW THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE COUNTRY THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...AND AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OFF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL BE THE LATEST TO SUPPORT THIS PATTERN...AS IT WILL DIRECT A
DEEP PACIFIC FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48. AS WAS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...ANY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED
UP IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC.

MEANWHILE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF
THIS PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT EAST WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AS A DIRECT RESULT OF A VERY POTENT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST DURING REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE OVERALL FLOW PROGRESSIVE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THIS RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NEAR RECORD
HIGHS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MORE ON THIS IN THE
LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.

A PAIR OF POTENT SHORTWAVES RACING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN A
130KT H25 JET WILL DIG OUT A FRESH LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD ON SATURDAY. A
CORRESPONDING SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
IN THE PROCESS...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE...THE DAY SHOULD BE
LARGELY PCPN FREE WITH ONLY SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WITH
QPF GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE ACTIVITY COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (NORTH OF TUG). WILL
LEAVE LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THAT AREA. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WITH 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOMEWHAT CHILLY AIR WILL RACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OUR
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO C AND THIS WILL SET UP ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE LAKES TO GENERATE SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
BULK OF THESE WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT. OVER LAKE ERIE...A SERIOUS LACK OF
MOISTURE ABV 5K FT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LAKE DRIVEN SHOWERS...
ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STRONG CHANNELLED VORTICITY OVER THE REGION COULD
HELP TO GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES EARLY IN THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S.

IT WILL BE BRISK AND COOL ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL
FIND OURSELVES SANDWICHED BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A VERY COOL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR (ALBEIT
PACIFIC MODIFIED) OVER OUR REGION WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE FOUND UNDER THE CORE OF A STRONG UL JET.
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE TUG FROM CONTINUED
MESOSCALE LAKE DRIVEN PROCESSES...WHICH BY THE WAY WILL WEAKEN AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL THEN NOSE NORTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENSURE A FAIR DRY NIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANY LINGERING NUISANCE LAKE RAIN SHOWERS ENDING
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

ON MONDAY...BROAD RIDGING WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THE
ENSUING WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR REGION WILL GENERATE SOME HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT A WEALTH OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THE EXPECTATION THAT THE STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A NICE DRY
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...SINUSOIDAL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ENSURE THAT
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. THE WARMEST DAY
WILL BE RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY WHEN A BROAD
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PUMP ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR
ACROSS OUR REGION.

H85 TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO ARND 12C BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...
AND WHEN FULLY MIXED...THIS WOULD SUPPORT NEAR RECORD MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. RECORDS FOR TUESDAY INCLUDE BUF 74 IN 1946...
ROC 76 IN 1984...AND WATERTOWN 75 ALSO IN 1984. THERE WILL BE A COLD
FRONT BEARING DOWN ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THOUGH...SO CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A SCREECHING HALT TO
THE SOARING TEMPS. THE FRONT IS SOME 3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL POUR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN
SET UP THE CHANCE FOR A MINIMAL LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME SHOWERS EAST
OF LK ONTARIO.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE A POOL OF PACIFICALLY
MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR WILL GLANCE BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A PAIR OF SEASONABLY COOL DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOME
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCAL
IFR THROUGH ABOUT 16Z BEFORE BURNING OFF.

OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AREAWIDE TODAY...WITH SOME CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUDINESS DRIFTING INTO WESTERN NY...AND SOME LOWER VFR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...
AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. IN TURN...THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LOWER-END VFR OR EVEN MVFR CLOUD COVER OVER
TIME.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS...A MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY
TODAY AND BRIEFLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE WEAKENING
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END
ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AREAWIDE.

OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION...AND SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SOLID ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES...BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING ON LAKE ERIE...AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/JJR
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KALY 241420
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1020 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT...KENX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY ENDED
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE IS STILL ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF MIST AND
DRIZZLE...AND LOTS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AS WELL.

DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS SHOULD END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL STILL
BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW
PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH THE
CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY DUE TO CIGS...THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN IFR
VSBY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE FORECAST MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH AROUND 15Z...THEN MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VFR
VSBYS THROUGH 18Z TO 20Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS DRIER
AIR RETURNS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AT KALB/KPSF WILL LIKELY PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

AT KPOU CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR/MVFR AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE SOME -RA THIS
MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY
TODAY...THEN EVENTUALLY TURN TO NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS
LATER TODAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 241420
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1020 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT...KENX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY ENDED
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE IS STILL ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF MIST AND
DRIZZLE...AND LOTS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AS WELL.

DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS SHOULD END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL STILL
BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW
PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH THE
CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY DUE TO CIGS...THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN IFR
VSBY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE FORECAST MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH AROUND 15Z...THEN MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VFR
VSBYS THROUGH 18Z TO 20Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS DRIER
AIR RETURNS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AT KALB/KPSF WILL LIKELY PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

AT KPOU CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR/MVFR AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE SOME -RA THIS
MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY
TODAY...THEN EVENTUALLY TURN TO NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS
LATER TODAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KBGM 241305
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
905 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY EASTWARD TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR AND BREEZY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM EDT UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY ENDING ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING
AND SOME SUNSHINE HAVE RETURNED OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS. STILL
EXPECT CLOUD COVERAGE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. RIDGING ALOFT IS
STARTING TO MOVE OVER WESTERN NY/PA AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EAST TODAY AS THE UPPR LOW THAT HAS PRODUCES RAIN LIFTS TO
THE NORTH. THUS... AFTER THE SHOWERS END THIS MORNING EXPECT TODAY
TO BE DRY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPR LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLND CST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS NEXT S/WV
MOVS INTO THE CNTRL GTLAKES TDA. CLDS THIS MRNG WITH SOME -RA OR
DZ ACRS ERN ZONES. CLEARING XPCTD TO PROGRESS STEADILY BUT SLOWLY
EWD TDA. ATTM THINK THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLDS WILL BE NEAR THE RT
81 CORRIDOR IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. WRN CATSKILLS PRBLY WON`T SEE
BREAKS UNTIL LATE TDA. MAXES IN THE U50S TO NEAR 60 WRN ZONES
WHERE MORE SS WILL OCCUR...L50S ACRS PORTIONS OF THE SRN CATSKILLS
WHERE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST LONGEST. NW WINDS GNRLY 10-20 KTS.

WE`LL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES TNGT BEFORE CLDS INCREASE
IN ADVANCE OF THE NXT S/WV LATE TNGT DUE TO WAA AND WEAK ISEN
LIFT. MINS GNRLY FROM THE U30 TO L40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
VARYING AMTS OF CLDS ON SATURDAY DUE TO MRNG WAA...THEN SOME
IMPRVMNT PSBL IN THE AFTN BEFORE MORE CLDS ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY
AS THE CDFNT APRCHS. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE L60S ACRS MANY AREAS. CHC POPS LATE IN DAY FOR
-SHRA FROM STEUBEN INTO ONEIDA COUNTY...WITH CHC POPS MIGRATING
SEWD ON SAT EVNG TO COVER MUCH OF CNTRL NY. GOOD DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT NOT ALOT OF MSTR. WEAK LAKE INFLUENCE COMBINED
WITH ANOTHER S/WV KEEPS CHC POPS ACRS FAR NRN ZONES ON SUNDAY INTO
SUN EVNG WHERE CLDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...WITH PC SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. BLUSTERY NW WINDS XPCTD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TOWARDS 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. TREND IN MODEL
CONSENSUS /WITH GFS FASTEST...ECMWF MIDDLE...AND GEM SLOWEST/ IS
FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE WITHIN THE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. POPS TWEAKED ACCORDINGLY. AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...AS ALREADY MENTIONED BELOW WE BRIEFLY GET QUITE
WARM...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY A GOOD DOZEN OR SO DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY. A FEW LOWER ELEVATION SPOTS MAY EVEN TOUCH 70. BEHIND
THE FRONT...EXPECTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER THURSDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD AND QUICKLY
LOSING INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. AS EXPECTED CONDITIONS ACTUALLY
IMPROVED LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS DRIER AIR HAS BEEN MOVING IN AND
ERODING WHAT REMAINS OF CLOUD COVER ON OUTER PERIPHERY OF EXITING
SYSTEM. KAVP COULD STILL HAVE BRIEF MVFR CIG...OTHERWISE JOINING
THE OTHER TERMINALS IN A QUICK SCATTERING OUT THIS MORNING AS
VERY DRY AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKE OVER. NW WINDS 7-10 KTS
WITH GUSTS 15-19 KTS TODAY...WILL DIMINISHING AND BACKING INTO
TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR TONIGHT...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF AN
MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL MANGE FORM TOWARDS DAWN UNDER SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION FOR SOME TERMINALS...ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE
VALLEY FOG AT KELM.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-SUN...SPOTTY -SHRA WITH SAT EVE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL POST FRONTAL MVFR CIG INTO SUNDAY FOR NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM.../KAH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBTV 241137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION
TODAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 711 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS PACKAGE. PATCHY SHOWERS/AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR -DZ CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FCST
AREA AS OF 700 AM AS TEMPERATURES HOVER WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
40F. STILL EXPECTING OVERALL COVERAGE OF PCPN TO WANE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...ESP BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE
A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN DECENT SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS INTO YOUR FRIDAY.
OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BENCHMARK EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. AS A RESULT...PERSISTENT MOIST...EAST/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY ABATE AS DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WANES
OVER TIME. HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE DACKS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/NRN VT THIS MORNING WHERE
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS
TO THEN TREND MAINLY DRY IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS TO
CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL SIDE...GENERALLY FROM 45 TO 51 FROM
THE DACKS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT AND SLIGHTLY MILDER (50S) IN THE
SLV WHERE SOME PARTIAL LATE DAY SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...VARIABLE CLOUDS THEN GRADUALLY TREND
PTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS ACROSS THE
AREA. ADVECTIVE PROCESSES NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND WITH AT LEAST
SOME LINGERING/PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND NEAR SEASONAL LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RATHER
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING ESE INTO OUR REGION WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL ARRIVE IN TWO BUNDLES...THE
FIRST OCCURRING BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THE SECOND DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. LATEST NWP TRENDS SUGGEST BETTER DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WHERE IVE OFFERED A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS
(50-70%). QPF NOT ALL THAT HEAVY GIVEN CONTINENTAL SOURCE REGION OF
THE FEATURE...BUT A GOOD BET THAT MANY AREAS WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL BE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE 925 MB THERMAL
PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. BY SUNDAY...ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HERALD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS (46 TO 54). AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...PCPN WILL
LIKELY TREND TO SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME
LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT.
TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON
NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE
LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A MIX OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS
WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MVFR
VSBY REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH 16Z FROM KSLK EASTWARD AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 16Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A
SHARP IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT REVEALING MID/HIGH VFR DECK. ALL SITES ARE VFR AFTER
00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SATURDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 241133
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
733 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...LAST EXPECTED BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF
RAIN APPEARS TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. SO THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS
FOR THIS AREA THIS MORNING. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY
AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY DUE TO CIGS...THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN IFR
VSBY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE FORECAST MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH AROUND 15Z...THEN MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VFR
VSBYS THROUGH 18Z TO 20Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS DRIER
AIR RETURNS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AT KALB/KPSF WILL LIKELY PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

AT KPOU CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR/MVFR AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE SOME -RA THIS
MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY
TODAY...THEN EVENTUALLY TURN TO NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS
LATER TODAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KBUF 241131
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
731 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM THE FINGER
LAKES EASTWARD GIVING WAY TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL THEN PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE TODAY...AS ANY
PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER MIXES
OUT WITH DIURNAL HEATING...AND LEFTOVER CLOUDS OVER THE FINGER LAKES
AND NORTH COUNTRY RECEDE OFF TO OUR EAST AS THEIR PARENT SURFACE LOW
FINALLY LIFTS OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND HIGH PRESSURE/
DRIER AIR RIDGES NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING BETWEEN +6C AND
+9C...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD LARGELY REACH INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE
TODAY...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
THE WARMEST TEMPS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING LOW CLOUDS OVER TIME...
WITH THIS TREND MOST PRONOUNCED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 40S. THE WARMEST OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE...WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP READINGS
FROM FALLING BELOW THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE COUNTRY THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...AND AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OFF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL BE THE LATEST TO SUPPORT THIS PATTERN...AS IT WILL DIRECT A
DEEP PACIFIC FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48. AS WAS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...ANY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED
UP IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC.

MEANWHILE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF
THIS PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT EAST WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AS A DIRECT RESULT OF A VERY POTENT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST DURING REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE OVERALL FLOW PROGRESSIVE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THIS RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NEAR RECORD
HIGHS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MORE ON THIS IN THE
LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.

A PAIR OF POTENT SHORTWAVES RACING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN A
130KT H25 JET WILL DIG OUT A FRESH LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD ON SATURDAY. A
CORRESPONDING SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
IN THE PROCESS...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE...THE DAY SHOULD BE
LARGELY PCPN FREE WITH ONLY SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WITH
QPF GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE ACTIVITY COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (NORTH OF TUG). WILL
LEAVE LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THAT AREA. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WITH 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOMEWHAT CHILLY AIR WILL RACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OUR
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO C AND THIS WILL SET UP ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE LAKES TO GENERATE SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
BULK OF THESE WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT. OVER LAKE ERIE...A SERIOUS LACK OF
MOISTURE ABV 5K FT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LAKE DRIVEN SHOWERS...
ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STRONG CHANNELLED VORTICITY OVER THE REGION COULD
HELP TO GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES EARLY IN THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S.

IT WILL BE BRISK AND COOL ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL
FIND OURSELVES SANDWICHED BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A VERY COOL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR (ALBEIT
PACIFIC MODIFIED) OVER OUR REGION WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE FOUND UNDER THE CORE OF A STRONG UL JET.
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE TUG FROM CONTINUED
MESOSCALE LAKE DRIVEN PROCESSES...WHICH BY THE WAY WILL WEAKEN AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL THEN NOSE NORTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENSURE A FAIR DRY NIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANY LINGERING NUISANCE LAKE RAIN SHOWERS ENDING
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

ON MONDAY...BROAD RIDGING WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THE
ENSUING WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR REGION WILL GENERATE SOME HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT A WEALTH OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THE EXPECTATION THAT THE STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A NICE DRY
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...SINUSOIDAL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ENSURE THAT
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. THE WARMEST DAY
WILL BE RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY WHEN A BROAD
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PUMP ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR
ACROSS OUR REGION.

H85 TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO ARND 12C BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...
AND WHEN FULLY MIXED...THIS WOULD SUPPORT NEAR RECORD MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. RECORDS FOR TUESDAY INCLUDE BUF 74 IN 1946...
ROC 76 IN 1984...AND WATERTOWN 75 ALSO IN 1984. THERE WILL BE A COLD
FRONT BEARING DOWN ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THOUGH...SO CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A SCREECHING HALT TO
THE SOARING TEMPS. THE FRONT IS SOME 3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL POUR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN
SET UP THE CHANCE FOR A MINIMAL LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME SHOWERS EAST
OF LK ONTARIO.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE A POOL OF PACIFICALLY
MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR WILL GLANCE BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A PAIR OF SEASONABLY COOL DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AREAWIDE TODAY...WITH ANY EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER MIXING OUT WITH
DIURNAL HEATING THIS MORNING...AND LEFTOVER LOW AND MID CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY RECEDING OFF TO OUR EAST
AS THEIR PARENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR
REGION.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...
AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. IN TURN...THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LOWER-END VFR OR EVEN MVFR CLOUD COVER OVER
TIME.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS...A MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY
TODAY AND BRIEFLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE WEAKENING
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END
ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AREAWIDE.

OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION...AND SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SOLID ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES...BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING ON LAKE ERIE...AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KOKX 241128
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
728 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS THAT ARE GRADUALLY
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

THE LAST SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH IT. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL TAPER OFF BY MID-MORNING.

WITH ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PARTIALLY CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING TO THE WEST...AND NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER
60S ACROSS THE URBANIZED PARTS OF NE NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH...AND TO 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WITH CAA AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID
40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC.

DRY AND MILD ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST AS THE FRONT APPEARS WILL COME THROUGH DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK TOWARDS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM
THE WEST.

AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
TEMPO MVFR CONDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS AND EVEN PERHAPS AT A FEW OF
THE NYC TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z OR SO. VFR EXPECTED THEREAFTER
HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A BKN STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 3500
AND 6000 FT AROUND TODAY.

NW FLOW/GUSTS PICK UP AGAIN 14Z-15Z AND CONTINUES THROUGH 22Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY DEVELOP AN
HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY DEVELOP AN
HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY DEVELOP AN
HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY DEVELOP AN
HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA 12Z-14Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE NE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

WIND GUSTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KT ON LI SOUND/LI BAYS/NY HARBOR.
THEREFORE...WILL CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR THOSE WATERS. SCA CONDS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...AND THEN TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP THROUGH
SATURDAY.

BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...24
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS










000
FXUS61 KBTV 241111
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION
TODAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 711 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS PACKAGE. PATCHY SHOWERS/AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR -DZ CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FCST
AREA AS OF 700 AM AS TEMPERATURES HOVER WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
40F. STILL EXPECTING OVERALL COVERAGE OF PCPN TO WANE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...ESP BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE
A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN DECENT SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS INTO YOUR FRIDAY.
OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BENCHMARK EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. AS A RESULT...PERSISTENT MOIST...EAST/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY ABATE AS DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WANES
OVER TIME. HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE DACKS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/NRN VT THIS MORNING WHERE
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS
TO THEN TREND MAINLY DRY IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS TO
CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL SIDE...GENERALLY FROM 45 TO 51 FROM
THE DACKS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT AND SLIGHTLY MILDER (50S) IN THE
SLV WHERE SOME PARTIAL LATE DAY SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...VARIABLE CLOUDS THEN GRADUALLY TREND
PTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS ACROSS THE
AREA. ADVECTIVE PROCESSES NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND WITH AT LEAST
SOME LINGERING/PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND NEAR SEASONAL LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RATHER
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING ESE INTO OUR REGION WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL ARRIVE IN TWO BUNDLES...THE
FIRST OCCURRING BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THE SECOND DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. LATEST NWP TRENDS SUGGEST BETTER DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WHERE IVE OFFERED A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS
(50-70%). QPF NOT ALL THAT HEAVY GIVEN CONTINENTAL SOURCE REGION OF
THE FEATURE...BUT A GOOD BET THAT MANY AREAS WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL BE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE 925 MB THERMAL
PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. BY SUNDAY...ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HERALD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS (46 TO 54). AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...PCPN WILL
LIKELY TREND TO SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME
LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT.
TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON
NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE
LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPPF AMOUNTS AND
TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE CONTINUES
TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TRYING TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME MVFR
VSBY LIKELY THROUGH 12Z FROM KPBG EASTWARD. KSLK/KMSS LIKELY
REMAIN RAIN FREE...THOUGH SOME ON/OFF P6SM DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
A SHARP IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS MID-AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT REVEALING MID/HIGH VFR DECK. ALL SITES ARE VFR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SATURDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 241045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...LAST EXPECTED BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF
RAIN APPEARS TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. SO THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS
FOR THIS AREA THIS MORNING. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY
AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU...
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KBGM 241037
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
637 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY EASTWARD TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR AND BREEZY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPR LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLND CST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS NEXT S/WV
MOVS INTO THE CNTRL GTLAKES TDA. CLDS THIS MRNG WITH SOME -RA OR
DZ ACRS ERN ZONES. CLEARING XPCTD TO PROGRESS STEADILY BUT SLOWLY
EWD TDA. ATTM THINK THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLDS WILL BE NEAR THE RT
81 CORRIDOR IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. WRN CATSKILLS PRBLY WON`T SEE
BREAKS UNTIL LATE TDA. MAXES IN THE U50S TO NEAR 60 WRN ZONES
WHERE MORE SS WILL OCCUR...L50S ACRS PORTIONS OF THE SRN CATSKILLS
WHERE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST LONGEST. NW WINDS GNRLY 10-20 KTS.

WE`LL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES TNGT BEFORE CLDS INCREASE
IN ADVANCE OF THE NXT S/WV LATE TNGT DUE TO WAA AND WEAK ISEN
LIFT. MINS GNRLY FROM THE U30 TO L40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
VARYING AMTS OF CLDS ON SATURDAY DUE TO MRNG WAA...THEN SOME
IMPRVMNT PSBL IN THE AFTN BEFORE MORE CLDS ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY
AS THE CDFNT APRCHS. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE L60S ACRS MANY AREAS. CHC POPS LATE IN DAY FOR
-SHRA FROM STEUBEN INTO ONEIDA COUNTY...WITH CHC POPS MIGRATING
SEWD ON SAT EVNG TO COVER MUCH OF CNTRL NY. GOOD DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT NOT ALOT OF MSTR. WEAK LAKE INFLUENCE COMBINED
WITH ANOTHER S/WV KEEPS CHC POPS ACRS FAR NRN ZONES ON SUNDAY INTO
SUN EVNG WHERE CLDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...WITH PC SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. BLUSTERY NW WINDS XPCTD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TOWARDS 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. TREND IN MODEL
CONSENSUS /WITH GFS FASTEST...ECMWF MIDDLE...AND GEM SLOWEST/ IS
FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE WITHIN THE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. POPS TWEAKED ACCORDINGLY. AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...AS ALREADY MENTIONED BELOW WE BRIEFLY GET QUITE
WARM...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY A GOOD DOZEN OR SO DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY. A FEW LOWER ELEVATION SPOTS MAY EVEN TOUCH 70. BEHIND
THE FRONT...EXPECTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER THURSDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD AND QUICKLY
LOSING INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. AS EXPECTED CONDITIONS ACTUALLY
IMPROVED LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS DRIER AIR HAS BEEN MOVING IN AND
ERODING WHAT REMAINS OF CLOUD COVER ON OUTER PERIPHERY OF EXITING
SYSTEM. KAVP COULD STILL HAVE BRIEF MVFR CIG...OTHERWISE JOINING
THE OTHER TERMINALS IN A QUICK SCATTERING OUT THIS MORNING AS
VERY DRY AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKE OVER. NW WINDS 7-10 KTS
WITH GUSTS 15-19 KTS TODAY...WILL DIMINISHING AND BACKING INTO
TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR TONIGHT...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF AN
MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL MANGE FORM TOWARDS DAWN UNDER SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION FOR SOME TERMINALS...ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE
VALLEY FOG AT KELM.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-SUN...SPOTTY -SHRA WITH SAT EVE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL POST FRONTAL MVFR CIG INTO SUNDAY FOR NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KOKX 240934
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
534 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH IT. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL TAPER OFF BY MID-MORNING.

WITH ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PARTIALLY CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING TO THE WEST...AND NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER
60S ACROSS THE URBANIZED PARTS OF NE NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH...AND TO 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WITH CAA AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID
40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC.

DRY AND MILD ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST AS THE FRONT APPEARS WILL COME THROUGH DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST...PASSING
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM
THE WEST.

ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR EXCEPT KSWF AND KGON. SHOWERS
DROPPING DOWN FROM CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z. CIGS COULD DROP TO
MVFR AT A FEW PLACES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THEM DOWN
ATTM. VFR SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BY 15Z...ALTHOUGH
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A BKN STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000
FT AROUND TODAY.

GUSTS HAVE BECOME OCNL AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
NW FLOW/GUSTS PICK UP AGAIN AFT SUNRISE...14Z-15Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL MID EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL MID EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL MID EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE NE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

WIND GUSTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KT ON LI SOUND/LI BAYS/NY HARBOR.
THEREFORE...WILL CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR THOSE WATERS. SCA CONDS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...AND THEN TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP THROUGH
SATURDAY.

BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...24
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 240841
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
441 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH IT. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL TAPER OFF BY MID-MORNING.

WITH ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PARTIALLY CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING TO THE WEST...AND NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER
60S ACROSS THE URBANIZED PARTS OF NE NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH...AND TO 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WITH CAA AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID
40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC.

DRY AND MILD ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST AS THE FRONT APPEARS WILL COME THROUGH DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST...PASSING
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM
THE WEST.

ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR EXCEPT KSWF AND KGON. SHOWERS
DROPPING DOWN FROM CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z. CIGS COULD DROP TO
MVFR AT A FEW PLACES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THEM DOWN
ATTM. VFR SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BY 15Z...ALTHOUGH
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A BKN STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000
FT AROUND TODAY.

GUSTS HAVE BECOME OCNL AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
NW FLOW/GUSTS PICK UP AGAIN AFT SUNRISE...14Z-15Z.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL MID EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL MID EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL MID EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE NE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
TO 25 KT OVER LI SOUND/LI BAYS/NY HARBOR THIS MORNING...AND SCA
REMAINS UP THROUGH 6 AM. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...CONDS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MIDDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS THEN ON TAP THROUGH
SATURDAY.

BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...24
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS







000
FXUS61 KALY 240824
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...ONE MORE FAIRLY SOLID BATCH OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AFFECTING THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND BERKSHIRES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN APPEARS
TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. SO
THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS FOR THIS AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
WEST. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF
ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU...
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV











000
FXUS61 KALY 240804
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...ONE MORE FAIRLY SOLID BATCH OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AFFECTING THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND BERKSHIRES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN APPEARS
TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. SO
THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS FOR THIS AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
WEST. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF
ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU...
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 240804
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...ONE MORE FAIRLY SOLID BATCH OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AFFECTING THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND BERKSHIRES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN APPEARS
TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. SO
THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS FOR THIS AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
WEST. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF
ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU...
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240802
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
402 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM THE GENESEE
VALLEY EASTWARD GIVING WAY TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL THEN
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 08Z...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DICHOTOMY
IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE BUFFALO CWA...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THE
GENERAL RULE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOUND FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. WITHIN THIS
LATTER AREA...AREA RADARS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SPRINKLES.

THE ONE EXCEPTION TO ALL THIS IS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...
WHERE A SWATH OF MORE LIMITED LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO BRUSH ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...
FURTHER UPSLOPING/NOCTURNAL COOLING MAY HELP THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP/EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AS
THEY ARE THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH THE LARGER SWATH OF CLOUDS PERHAPS
SHIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AS THE RESPONSIBLE COASTAL LOW DRIFTS
A LITTLE FURTHER AWAY...AND A SLOW BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
HELPS TO SPREAD SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR EASTWARD INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY.

THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AREAWIDE...AS ANY EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER MIXES OUT WITH DIURNAL HEATING...AND THE LEFTOVER
CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS RECEDE EAST OF THE AREA
AS THEIR PARENT SURFACE LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
RIDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE. WITH THE INCREASING
SUNSHINE AND 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING BETWEEN +6C AND +9C...HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD LARGELY REACH INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE TODAY...WITH THE
COOLEST TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND THE WARMEST
TEMPS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING LOW CLOUDS OVER TIME...
WITH THIS TREND MOST PRONOUNCED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 40S. THE WARMEST OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE...WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP READINGS
FROM FALLING BELOW THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE COUNTRY THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...AND AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OFF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL BE THE LATEST TO SUPPORT THIS PATTERN...AS IT WILL DIRECT A
DEEP PACIFIC FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48. AS WAS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...ANY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED
UP IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC.

MEANWHILE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF
THIS PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT EAST WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AS A DIRECT RESULT OF A VERY POTENT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST DURING REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE OVERALL FLOW PROGRESSIVE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THIS RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NEAR RECORD
HIGHS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MORE ON THIS IN THE
LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.

A PAIR OF POTENT SHORTWAVES RACING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN A
130KT H25 JET WILL DIG OUT A FRESH LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD ON SATURDAY. A
CORRESPONDING SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
IN THE PROCESS...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE...THE DAY SHOULD BE
LARGELY PCPN FREE WITH ONLY SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WITH
QPF GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE ACTIVITY COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (NORTH OF TUG). WILL
LEAVE LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THAT AREA. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WITH 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOMEWHAT CHILLY AIR WILL RACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OUR
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO C AND THIS WILL SET UP ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE LAKES TO GENERATE SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
BULK OF THESE WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT. OVER LAKE ERIE...A SERIOUS LACK OF
MOISTURE ABV 5K FT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LAKE DRIVEN SHOWERS...
ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STRONG CHANNELLED VORTICITY OVER THE REGION COULD
HELP TO GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES EARLY IN THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S.

IT WILL BE BRISK AND COOL ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL
FIND OURSELVES SANDWICHED BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A VERY COOL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR (ALBEIT
PACIFIC MODIFIED) OVER OUR REGION WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE FOUND UNDER THE CORE OF A STRONG UL JET.
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE TUG FROM CONTINUED
MESOSCALE LAKE DRIVEN PROCESSES...WHICH BY THE WAY WILL WEAKEN AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL THEN NOSE NORTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENSURE A FAIR DRY NIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANY LINGERING NUISANCE LAKE RAIN SHOWERS ENDING
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

ON MONDAY...BROAD RIDGING WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THE
ENSUING WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR REGION WILL GENERATE SOME HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT A WEALTH OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THE EXPECTATION THAT THE STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A NICE DRY
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...SINUSOIDAL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ENSURE THAT
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. THE WARMEST DAY
WILL BE RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY WHEN A BROAD
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PUMP ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR
ACROSS OUR REGION.

H85 TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO ARND 12C BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...
AND WHEN FULLY MIXED...THIS WOULD SUPPORT NEAR RECORD MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. RECORDS FOR TUESDAY INCLUDE BUF 74 IN 1946...
ROC 76 IN 1984...AND WATERTOWN 75 ALSO IN 1984. THERE WILL BE A COLD
FRONT BEARING DOWN ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THOUGH...SO CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A SCREECHING HALT TO
THE SOARING TEMPS. THE FRONT IS SOME 3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL POUR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN
SET UP THE CHANCE FOR A MINIMAL LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME SHOWERS EAST
OF LK ONTARIO.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE A POOL OF PACIFICALLY
MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR WILL GLANCE BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A PAIR OF SEASONABLY COOL DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 08Z...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DICHOTOMY
IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THE GENERAL
RULE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOUND FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. WITHIN THIS LATTER AREA...
LOWER-END VFR CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY DOMINANT...SAVE FOR SOME MVFR
CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY.

THE ONE EXCEPTION TO ALL THIS IS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...
WHERE A SWATH OF MORE LIMITED IFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO BRUSH ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...
FURTHER UPSLOPING/NOCTURNAL COOLING MAY HELP THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP/EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AS
THEY ARE THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH THE LARGER SWATH OF CLOUDS PERHAPS
SHIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AS THE RESPONSIBLE COASTAL LOW DRIFTS
A LITTLE FURTHER AWAY...AND A SLOW BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
HELPS TO SPREAD SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR EASTWARD INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY.

THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
AREAWIDE...WITH ANY EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER MIXING OUT WITH DIURNAL HEATING...AND LEFTOVER
CEILINGS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY FINALLY RECEDING
EAST OF THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THEIR PARENT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...
AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. IN TURN...THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LOWER-END VFR CLOUD COVER OVER TIME...WITH
SOME MVFR CIGS PERHAPS EVEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
LATE IN THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS...A MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY
TODAY AND BRIEFLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE WEAKENING
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END
ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AREAWIDE.

OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION...AND SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SOLID ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES...BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING ON LAKE ERIE...AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBTV 240748
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
348 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION
TODAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST IN DECENT SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS
INTO YOUR FRIDAY. OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY
FROM OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...PERSISTENT
MOIST...EAST/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY ABATE AS DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WANES OVER TIME. HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL/NRN VT THIS MORNING WHERE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS TO THEN TREND MAINLY DRY IN MOST
AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS TO CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE...GENERALLY FROM 45 TO 51 FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD INTO
VERMONT AND SLIGHTLY MILDER (50S) IN THE SLV WHERE SOME PARTIAL
LATE DAY SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...VARIABLE CLOUDS THEN GRADUALLY TREND
PTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS ACROSS THE
AREA. ADVECTIVE PROCESSES NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND WITH AT LEAST
SOME LINGERING/PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND NEAR SEASONAL LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RATHER
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING ESE INTO OUR REGION WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL ARRIVE IN TWO BUNDLES...THE
FIRST OCCURRING BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THE SECOND DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. LATEST NWP TRENDS SUGGEST BETTER DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WHERE IVE OFFERED A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS
(50-70%). QPF NOT ALL THAT HEAVY GIVEN CONTINENTAL SOURCE REGION OF
THE FEATURE...BUT A GOOD BET THAT MANY AREAS WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL BE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE 925 MB THERMAL
PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. BY SUNDAY...ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HERALD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS (46 TO 54). AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...PCPN WILL
LIKELY TREND TO SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME
LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT.
TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON
NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE
LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPPF AMOUNTS AND
TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE CONTINUES
TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TRYING TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME MVFR
VSBY LIKELY THROUGH 12Z FROM KPBG EASTWARD. KSLK/KMSS LIKELY
REMAIN RAIN FREE...THOUGH SOME ON/OFF P6SM DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
A SHARP IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS MID-AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT REVEALING MID/HIGH VFR DECK. ALL SITES ARE VFR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SATURDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KOKX 240739
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
339 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH IT. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL TAPER OFF BY MID-MORNING.

WITH ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PARTIALLY CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING TO THE WEST...AND NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER
60S ACROSS THE URBANIZED PARTS OF NE NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH...AND TO 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WITH CAA AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID
40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC.

DRY AND MILD ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST AS THE FRONT APPEARS WILL COME THROUGH DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST...PASSING
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM
THE WEST.

VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AT NYC METRO TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
ALTHOUGH CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD KEEP A BKN STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 3500
AND 5000 FT AROUND TODAY. KBDR IS CURRENTLY VFR BUT COULD SEE SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. KISP/KGON STARTING OFF MVFR WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO LOW END
VFR. TIMING COULD BE A FEW HOURS OFF. VFR THEN REMAINS AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KHPN AND KISP STILL EXPERIENCING FREQ GUSTS SO HAVE KEPT THEM IN
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ANY OF THE TERMINALS COULD SEE AN OCNL GUST
UP TO 20 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NW FLOW/GUSTS PICK UP
AGAIN AFT SUNRISE...AROUND 14Z. DIRECTIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT
OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL MID EVE.

EXPECT MAINLY VICINITY IMPACTS FROM
LIGHT SHOWERS AT MOST TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WITH
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CATEGORY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE NE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
TO 25 KT OVER LI SOUND/LI BAYS/NY HARBOR THIS MORNING...AND SCA
REMAINS UP THROUGH 6 AM. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...CONDS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MIDDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS THEN ON TAP THROUGH
SATURDAY.

BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...24
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS








000
FXUS61 KBGM 240720
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
320 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY EASTWARD TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR AND BREEZY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPR LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLND CST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS NEXT S/WV
MOVS INTO THE CNTRL GTLAKES TDA. CLDS THIS MRNG WITH SOME -RA OR
DZ ACRS ERN ZONES. CLEARING XPCTD TO PROGRESS STEADILY BUT SLOWLY
EWD TDA. ATTM THINK THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLDS WILL BE NEAR THE RT
81 CORRIDOR IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. WRN CATSKILLS PRBLY WON`T SEE
BREAKS UNTIL LATE TDA. MAXES IN THE U50S TO NEAR 60 WRN ZONES
WHERE MORE SS WILL OCCUR...L50S ACRS PORTIONS OF THE SRN CATSKILLS
WHERE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST LONGEST. NW WINDS GNRLY 10-20 KTS.

WE`LL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES TNGT BEFORE CLDS INCREASE
IN ADVANCE OF THE NXT S/WV LATE TNGT DUE TO WAA AND WEAK ISEN
LIFT. MINS GNRLY FROM THE U30 TO L40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
VARYING AMTS OF CLDS ON SATURDAY DUE TO MRNG WAA...THEN SOME
IMPRVMNT PSBL IN THE AFTN BEFORE MORE CLDS ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY
AS THE CDFNT APRCHS. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE L60S ACRS MANY AREAS. CHC POPS LATE IN DAY FOR
-SHRA FROM STEUBEN INTO ONEIDA COUNTY...WITH CHC POPS MIGRATING
SEWD ON SAT EVNG TO COVER MUCH OF CNTRL NY. GOOD DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT NOT ALOT OF MSTR. WEAK LAKE INFLUENCE COMBINED
WITH ANOTHER S/WV KEEPS CHC POPS ACRS FAR NRN ZONES ON SUNDAY INTO
SUN EVNG WHERE CLDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...WITH PC SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. BLUSTERY NW WINDS XPCTD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TOWARDS 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. TREND IN MODEL
CONSENSUS /WITH GFS FASTEST...ECMWF MIDDLE...AND GEM SLOWEST/ IS
FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE WITHIN THE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. POPS TWEAKED ACCORDINGLY. AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...AS ALREADY MENTIONED BELOW WE BRIEFLY GET QUITE
WARM...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY A GOOD DOZEN OR SO DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY. A FEW LOWER ELEVATION SPOTS MAY EVEN TOUCH 70. BEHIND
THE FRONT...EXPECTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER THURSDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW JUST EAST OF CAPE COD AND LOSING
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. WE ARE ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF CLOUD
COVER CURRENTLY...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS...BUT THOSE WILL ACTUALLY
IMPROVE BETWEEN 06Z-10Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND ERODES IT. BY
10Z KBGM-KITH SHOULD BE DONE WITH IFR...KAVP-KELM SHOULD BE ABOVE
FUEL ALT REQ LEVEL...AND KSYR-KRME CIG SHOULD IMPROVE FROM MVFR
TO VFR. REMAINDER OF CLOUDS WILL BE QUICK TO SCATTER OUT THIS
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS VERY DRY AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE
TAKE OVER. NW WINDS 7-10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-19 KTS
/MAINLY DAYTIME/...WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-SUN...SPOTTY -SHRA WITH SAT EVE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL POST FRONTAL MVFR CIG INTO SUNDAY FOR NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 240704
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
304 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY EASTWARD TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR AND BREEZY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPR LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLND CST WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS NEXT S/WV MOVS INTO THE CNTRL GTLAKES TDA.
CLDS THIS MRNG WITH SOME -RA OR DZ ACRS ERN ZONES. CLEARING XPCTD
TO PROGRESS STEADLILY BUT SLOWLY EWD TDA. ATTM THINK THE WRN EDGE
OF THE CLDS WILL BE NEAR THE RT 81 CORRIDOR IN THE 16-18Z TIME
FRAME. WRN CATKILLS PRBLY WON`T SEE BREAKS UNTIL LATE TDA. MAXES
IN THE U50S TO NEAR 60 WRN ZONES WHERE MORE SS WILL OCCUR...L50S
ACRS PORTIONS OF THE SRN CATSKILLS WHERE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
LONGEST. NW WINDS GNRLY 10-20 KTS.

WE`LL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES TNGT BEFORE CLDS INCREASE
IN ADVANCE OF THE NXT S/WV LATE TNGT DUE TO WAA AND WEAK ISEN
LIFT. MINS GNRLY FROM THE U30 TO L40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
VARYING AMTS OF CLDS ON SATURDAY DUE TO MRNG WAA...THEN SOME
IMPRVMNT PSBL IN THE AFTN BEFORE MORE CLDS ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY
AS THE CDFNT APRCHS. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE L60S ACRS MANY AREAS. CHC POPS LATE IN DAY FOR
-SHRA FROM STEUBEN INTO ONEIDA COUNTY...WITH CHC POPS MIGRATING
SEWD ON SAT EVNG TO COVER MUCH OF CNTRL NY. GOOD DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT NOT ALOT OF MSTR. WEAK LAKE INFLUENCE COMBINED
WITH ANOTHER S/WV KEEPS CHC POPS ACRS FAR NRN ZONES ON SUNDAY INTO
SUN EVNG WHERE CLDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...WITH PC SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. BLUSTERY NW WINDS XPCTD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
IT`S ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF NEW YORK. SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FROPA...
HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. THIS IS DUE TO CAA AND THE FETCH OVER THE LAKE
RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT ENHANCED SHOWERS.

THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDDING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE NICE WEATHER MAY EXTEND FURTHER
INTO THE WEEK AS EACH GUIDANCE RUN HINTS THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM WILL
PROPAGATE EAST SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW JUST EAST OF CAPE COD AND LOSING
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. WE ARE ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF CLOUD
COVER CURRENTLY...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS...BUT THOSE WILL ACTUALLY
IMPROVE BETWEEN 06Z-10Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND ERODES IT. BY
10Z KBGM-KITH SHOULD BE DONE WITH IFR...KAVP-KELM SHOULD BE ABOVE
FUEL ALT REQ LEVEL...AND KSYR-KRME CIG SHOULD IMPROVE FROM MVFR
TO VFR. REMAINDER OF CLOUDS WILL BE QUICK TO SCATTER OUT THIS
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS VERY DRY AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE
TAKE OVER. NW WINDS 7-10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-19 KTS
/MAINLY DAYTIME/...WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-SUN...SPOTTY -SHRA WITH SAT EVE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL POST FRONTAL MVFR CIG INTO SUNDAY FOR NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBUF 240613
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 06Z...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD.

THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...THE VERTICALLY STACKED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE WINDS...THIS WILL HELP THE
DRIER AIR CURRENTLY OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO ADVECT A LITTLE
FURTHER EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND PERHAPS EVEN THE
FAR WESTERN FINGER LAKES. FURTHER EAST...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO.

THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS OVER FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...WHERE THE CURRENTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS. AT PRESENT...IT
APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING
SUCH DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE NARROWER T-TD SPREADS ACROSS THAT
AREA...WHILE AREAS FURTHER TO NORTH WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO SEE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG GIVEN BOTH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR...AND THE FACT THAT WINDS
WILL BE TURNING MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND THUS LESS UPSLOPE IN
NATURE.

GIVEN THE ABOVE DICHOTOMY IN CLOUD COVER...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO
THE MID 40S FURTHER EAST.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM OHIO ACROSS OUR REGION
WITH SUNNY SKIES CONTINUING TO SPREAD FROM W-E. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOUND ALOFT OVER OUR
REGION...WHICH WILL LIE BETWEEN A CUT OFF LOW EXITING OFF THE
ATLANTIC CANADA COASTLINE AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS WE WARM
ALOFT...AND MOISTURE INCREASES.

WE MAY START TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE TOWARDS
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AREAS NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY.
GREATEST LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIE NORTHWARD CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH LOW CHANCES POPS DOWN
NEAR THE STATE LINE.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DROP ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE JUST ENOUGH UNSTABLE (-1C 850 HPA) AND WITH A
GREAT ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL (15K FEET) TO GENERATE A
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. FOR LAKE ERIE
AMBIENT MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS...WITH NO
BANDS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE...THERE WILL
LINGER ENOUGH LIFT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO STILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SYNOPTIC SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER...AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL APART THROUGH
THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP TOWARDS WESTERN
NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

A BIT OF WARMTH WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. COOLING AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A COOLER DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID
40S...WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
GO CALM. IN FACT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE 30S THAN 40S DEGREE
READINGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN FAIR AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD JUST KEEP OUR AREA DRY. WITH OUR AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT...A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NEAR RECORD WARMTH WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE NEAR AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING
OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS NOT
ABUNDANT DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THIS
COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 HPA DROPPING
DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER
LAKE RESPONSE OFF BOTH LAKES WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRING CHANCES FOR
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. IN THIS LATTER REGION...LOWER-END VFR
CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY DOMINANT...SAVE FOR SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.

THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...THE VERTICALLY STACKED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE WINDS...THIS WILL HELP THE
DRIER AIR CURRENTLY OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO ADVECT A LITTLE
FURTHER EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND PERHAPS EVEN THE
FAR WESTERN FINGER LAKES. FURTHER EAST...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH VFR/MVFR CIGS PERSISTING.

THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS OVER FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...WHERE THE CURRENTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME IFR PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS. AT PRESENT...
IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING
SUCH DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE NARROWER T-TD SPREADS ACROSS THAT
AREA...WHILE AREAS FURTHER TO NORTH WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO SEE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG GIVEN BOTH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR...AND THE FACT THAT WINDS
WILL BE TURNING MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND THUS LESS UPSLOPE IN
NATURE.

ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AREAWIDE...WITH ANY
EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS MIXING OUT WITH DIURNAL HEATING...AND
LEFTOVER CEILINGS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY FINALLY
RECEDING EAST OF THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THEIR PARENT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
IN TURN...THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LOWER-END VFR CLOUD
COVER OVER TIME...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS PERHAPS EVEN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED
THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/CHURCH/JJR
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...APFFEL/CHURCH/JJR









000
FXUS61 KBGM 240556
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND COME TO AN END THIS MORNING.
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. FAIR WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
PREVIOUS SHIFT`S POP FORECAST LOOKS EXCELLENT AS CYCLONE PULLS
NORTHWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MIGHT NEED TO LOWER THE NEAR
TERM HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN FA BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT, AS
CURRENT ACTIVITY IS WEAK AND FADING FAST.

NEAR TERM TEMPS AND DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ALTERED.

105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE DRG THE DAY TMRW AS CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES.
HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE WEST BY AFTN WITH SKIES CLRNG RAPIDLY AFT
18Z. DRIER AIR ACCOMPANIES HIPRES, ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
M/U 50S THRU THE DAY. BRIEF S/WV RIDGING WL OCCUR AT UPR LVLS WITH
HGTS ON THE RISE.

SKIES WL BEGIN TO CLD UP LATE FRI NGT AS UPR LVL SYSTEM APPCHS
EASTERN CANADA AND SPREADS HIGH CIRRUS IN BY 12Z SAT. OVRNGT LOWS WL
BE COOLER THAN PRIOR NIGHTS UNDER CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THEREFORE
HV GONE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR FRI NGT LOWS.

MED RANGE MODELS HV COME IN SLOWER WITH WK SFC TROF AND EVENTUAL
PCPN EXPECTED OVR THE WEEKEND. BRIEF RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ON AND
DRY AIRMASS WL BE PREVALENT THRU MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. GFS
INDICATING UPGLIDE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT ACRS THE NORTH AND
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 21Z.

HV RETAINED CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY AS AREA IS UNDER INFLUENCE OF NW
FLOW. TEMPS WL LKLY MODERATE TO NR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
IT`S ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF NEW YORK. SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FROPA...
HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. THIS IS DUE TO CAA AND THE FETCH OVER THE LAKE
RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT ENHANCED SHOWERS.

THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDDING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE NICE WEATHER MAY EXTEND FURTHER
INTO THE WEEK AS EACH GUIDANCE RUN HINTS THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM WILL
PROPAGATE EAST SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW JUST EAST OF CAPE COD AND LOSING
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. WE ARE ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF CLOUD
COVER CURRENTLY...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS...BUT THOSE WILL ACTUALLY
IMPROVE BETWEEN 06Z-10Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND ERODES IT. BY
10Z KBGM-KITH SHOULD BE DONE WITH IFR...KAVP-KELM SHOULD BE ABOVE
FUEL ALT REQ LEVEL...AND KSYR-KRME CIG SHOULD IMPROVE FROM MVFR
TO VFR. REMAINDER OF CLOUDS WILL BE QUICK TO SCATTER OUT THIS
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS VERY DRY AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE
TAKE OVER. NW WINDS 7-10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-19 KTS
/MAINLY DAYTIME/...WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-SUN...SPOTTY -SHRA WITH SAT EVE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL POST FRONTAL MVFR CIG INTO SUNDAY FOR NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...DJP/PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KOKX 240552
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
152 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACHES THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE THROUGH GEORGES BANK DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA...WITH WINDS ONLY DIMINISHING A LITTLE LATE AT NIGHT.

SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY LOWER HUD VALLEY/SOUTHERN CT AND EASTERN LI.
THE FIRST ROUND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE SLIDES
S...WITH A SECOND ROUND LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. OVERALL ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A SHOWER IN SPOTS OVER CT AND EASTERN
LI FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE....DRY ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW STRATO-CU WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH DURING
THE DAY...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
TRI-STATE. CLOUDS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS WEEKEND. CLOSER TO OUR REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
DRY...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG
NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH
20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THE MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL
MODERATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST...PASSING
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM
THE WEST.

VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AT NYC METRO TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
ALTHOUGH CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD KEEP A BKN STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 3500
AND 5000 FT AROUND TODAY. KBDR IS CURRENTLY VFR BUT COULD SEE SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. KISP/KGON STARTING OFF MVFR WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO LOW END
VFR. TIMING COULD BE A FEW HOURS OFF. VFR THEN REMAINS AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KHPN AND KISP STILL EXPERIENCING FREQ GUSTS SO HAVE KEPT THEM IN
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ANY OF THE TERMINALS COULD SEE AN OCNL GUST
UP TO 20 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NW FLOW/GUSTS PICK UP
AGAIN AFT SUNRISE...AROUND 14Z. DIRECTIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT
OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL MID EVE.

EXPECT MAINLY VICINITY IMPACTS FROM
LIGHT SHOWERS AT MOST TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WITH
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CATEGORY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT.

GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR OCEAN WATERS WITH WINDS
CURRENTLY RUNNING JUST BELOW GALE AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. FREQUENT SCA GUSTS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL BELOW SCA
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

MARGINAL NEAR-SHORE SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ALL WATERS ON FRI DEPENDING
ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING OVERLAND. OCEAN SEAS SHOULD
GRADUALLY FALL BELOW SCA FRI AFT.

SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW
WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
FOR THIS EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WITH RESIDUALS CONTINUING TO
FALL INTO TOMORROW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KALY 240552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 124 AM EDT...NOTICING AN AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM MAINE INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK...AND PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD. THIS SIGNIFIES ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD. SO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELY VALUES FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ONLY
COOLING A FEW MORE DEGREES DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...SHOWERS AND A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU...
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50
TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ESTIMATED 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS THE
WILLIAMS AND SAXTONS RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HOOSIC RIVER IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE
GOOD NEWS...ALL THIS RIVERS HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE CRESTED...BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV











000
FXUS61 KALY 240524
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
124 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 124 AM EDT...NOTICING AN AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM MAINE INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK...AND PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD. THIS SIGNIFIES ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD. SO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELY VALUES FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ONLY
COOLING A FEW MORE DEGREES DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...SHOWERS AND A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS). HOWEVER...IT NOW
APPEARS KPSF MIGHT BE DOWN TO THE COUNT THROUGH TONIGHT (IFR).
ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS AS IF ANY IFR CIGS WILL BE VERY BRIEF. KPOU
MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ON FRIDAY...BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT TAKE AWHILE.

A NORTH WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NW AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATER
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...BUT
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20KTS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50
TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ESTIMATED 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS THE
WILLIAMS AND SAXTONS RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HOOSIC RIVER IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE
GOOD NEWS...ALL THIS RIVERS HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE CRESTED...BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 240520
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
120 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOGGY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH SOME SUN, A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER ON
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT THURSDAY...QUASI-STATIONARY CUTOFF LOW SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD WILL MAINTAIN DEEP MOIST FETCH ACROSS ME/NH AND INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WHICH WILL PIVOT WESTWARD
ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NY WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
WHILE IT WON/T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE NIGHT...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG
EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S. IN
FACT...THE TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON TODAY ONLY VARIED 3 DEGREES
SINCE MIDNIGHT...FROM 44-47F. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH
AT 10-15 MPH. WILL SEE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS WITH CHANNELED
FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH WINDS NORTH AT 15-25 KNOTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN HIGHEST ACROSS WINDSOR COUNTY
IN SERN VT WITH TOTALS RANGING FROM 1.2-1.4". TOTALS STEADILY DROP
OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER
0.53" AT MPV AND 0.37" AT BTV. AMOUNTS ACROSS NRN NY THUS FAR HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN LESS THAN 0.40". AN ELABORATED UPON IN THE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW...FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, THE LOW WILL
BE NEARING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE REGION WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO SLOWLY
FADE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, THE CLEARING WILL LIKELY
BE PAINFULLY SLOW, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN VERMONT. GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE WANTING TO CLEAR MUCH OF THE AREA OUT A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY,
AND AS A RESULT IT`S TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY A TOUCH TOO HIGH.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN AREAS -- ANOTHER DAY GENERALLY IN
THE 40S, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SHOULD
REACH INTO THE 50S (WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).

FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING DRY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STILL BE HANGING
TOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST VERMONT. A LITTLE BIT
OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP A LITTLE (5MPH OR SO),
AND THIS WILL KEEP US FROM SEEING OUR BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
GUIDANCE INDICATED LOW 30S COME SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS, I THOUGHT MID 30S WAS MORE APPROPRIATE.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH MANY OF US SEEING SOME SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WILL BE
APPROACHING BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL TURN FROM
NORTHWEST/WEST TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS CLOUDS SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. BY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
COME INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, SPREADING INTO VERMONT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 8-10C AND A LITTLE BIT OF SUN,
WE SHOULD EASILY BE NEAR NORMAL HIGHS -- IF NOT EVEN A LITTLE
ABOVE. SINCE THE SYSTEM WON`T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
EVEN THOUGH I DO HAVE POPS IN THE 50-70% RANGE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ACTUAL RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE
NOTHING MORE THAN 1/4".

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE CONTINUES
TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TRYING TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME MVFR
VSBY LIKELY THROUGH 12Z FROM KPBG EASTWARD. KSLK/KMSS LIKELY
REMAIN RAIN FREE...THOUGH SOME ON/OFF P6SM DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
A SHARP IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS MID-AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT REVEALING MID/HIGH VFR DECK. ALL SITES ARE VFR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SATURDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY
EXCESSIVE THUS FAR (0.5"-1.25" SINCE YESTERDAY IN THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS). DESPITE ANOTHER 0.3-0.7" EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS, RIVERS REMAIN FAR FROM BANKFUL AND WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY HYDRO RELATED ISSUES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THANKS TO CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS DURING THURSDAY WERE AROUND 30 KNOTS
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE, CLOSER TO DIAMOND ISLAND,
AND THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE WIND GETS
FUNNELED THROUGH THE NARROWING VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
LAKE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
CREATING CHOPPY WAVE CONDITIONS. THESE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH




000
FXUS61 KOKX 240253
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1053 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACHES THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE THROUGH GEORGES BANK DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA...WITH WINDS ONLY DIMINISHING A LITTLE LATE AT NIGHT.

SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY LOWER HUD VALLEY/SOUTHERN CT AND EASTERN LI.
THE FIRST ROUND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE SLIDES
S...WITH A SECOND ROUND LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. OVERALL ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A SHOWER IN SPOTS OVER CT AND EASTERN
LI FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE....DRY ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW STRATO-CU WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH DURING
THE DAY...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
TRI-STATE. CLOUDS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS WEEKEND. CLOSER TO OUR REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
DRY...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG
NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH
20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THE MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL
MODERATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT...PASSING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

N-NW FLOW GENERALLY 10-15G20-25 KT SHOULD ABATE OVERNIGHT...
THEN PICK UP AGAIN BY 14Z FRI. WINDS SHOULD BACK SLIGHTLY MORE NW
ON FRI BUT REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC. EXPECT MAINLY VICINITY
IMPACTS FROM LIGHT SHOWERS AT KLGA/KJFK/KISP/KGON LATE THIS
EVENING AND AT MOST TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY DAYLIGHT
FRI...BUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CATEGORY.

CIGS SHOULD REMAIN LOW-END VFR OVERNIGHT AT THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS. IMPROVEMENT FARTHER INLAND AT KSWF AND TO THE EAST AT
KISP/KGON SHOULD TAKE LONGER...WITH VFR NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHED AMD FOR FLUCTUATING CIGS POSSIBLE.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT.

GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR OCEAN WATERS WITH WINDS
CURRENTLY RUNNING JUST BELOW GALE AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. FREQUENT SCA GUSTS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL BELOW SCA
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

MARGINAL NEAR-SHORE SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ALL WATERS ON FRI DEPENDING
ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING OVERLAND. OCEAN SEAS SHOULD
GRADUALLY FALL BELOW SCA FRI AFT.

SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW
WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
FOR THIS EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WITH RESIDUALS CONTINUING TO
FALL INTO TOMORROW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...BC/JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV









000
FXUS61 KOKX 240253
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1053 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACHES THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE THROUGH GEORGES BANK DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA...WITH WINDS ONLY DIMINISHING A LITTLE LATE AT NIGHT.

SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY LOWER HUD VALLEY/SOUTHERN CT AND EASTERN LI.
THE FIRST ROUND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE SLIDES
S...WITH A SECOND ROUND LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. OVERALL ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A SHOWER IN SPOTS OVER CT AND EASTERN
LI FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE....DRY ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW STRATO-CU WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH DURING
THE DAY...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
TRI-STATE. CLOUDS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS WEEKEND. CLOSER TO OUR REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
DRY...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG
NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH
20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THE MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL
MODERATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT...PASSING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

N-NW FLOW GENERALLY 10-15G20-25 KT SHOULD ABATE OVERNIGHT...
THEN PICK UP AGAIN BY 14Z FRI. WINDS SHOULD BACK SLIGHTLY MORE NW
ON FRI BUT REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC. EXPECT MAINLY VICINITY
IMPACTS FROM LIGHT SHOWERS AT KLGA/KJFK/KISP/KGON LATE THIS
EVENING AND AT MOST TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY DAYLIGHT
FRI...BUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CATEGORY.

CIGS SHOULD REMAIN LOW-END VFR OVERNIGHT AT THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS. IMPROVEMENT FARTHER INLAND AT KSWF AND TO THE EAST AT
KISP/KGON SHOULD TAKE LONGER...WITH VFR NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHED AMD FOR FLUCTUATING CIGS POSSIBLE.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT.

GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR OCEAN WATERS WITH WINDS
CURRENTLY RUNNING JUST BELOW GALE AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. FREQUENT SCA GUSTS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL BELOW SCA
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

MARGINAL NEAR-SHORE SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ALL WATERS ON FRI DEPENDING
ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING OVERLAND. OCEAN SEAS SHOULD
GRADUALLY FALL BELOW SCA FRI AFT.

SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW
WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
FOR THIS EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WITH RESIDUALS CONTINUING TO
FALL INTO TOMORROW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...BC/JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV









000
FXUS61 KALY 240243
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1040 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...RADARS STILL FOLLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
THE OVERALL TREND OF THESE SHOWERS DIMINISHING. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATED A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUED WORKING INTO THE REGION
WHICH WAS SIGN THAT THE STORM HAS BEGUN TO "DECAY" (FILL) AS IT
MOVED TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD.

THE LOW WILL REACH THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINED SATURATED BUT WITH
TIME...WILL SLOWLY DRY OUT ON FRIDAY.

WITH THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH AT ALL
OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S...MID 40S LOCALLY IN
THE CAPITAL REGION.

NOT MUCH TO UPDATE OVERNIGHT...JUST TOUCHED UP THE HOURLY GRIDS AND
POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS). HOWEVER...IT NOW
APPEARS KPSF MIGHT BE DOWN TO THE COUNT THROUGH TONIGHT (IFR).
ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS AS IF ANY IFR CIGS WILL BE VERY BRIEF. KPOU
MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ON FRIDAY...BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT TAKE AWHILE.

A NORTH WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NW AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATER
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...BUT
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20KTS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50
TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ESTIMATED 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS THE
WILLIAMS AND SAXTONS RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HOOSIC RIVER IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE
GOOD NEWS...ALL THIS RIVERS HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE CRESTED...BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBUF 240243
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1043 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED...LEAVING JUST A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
SPRINKLES...AREAS EAST OF ROCHESTER WILL MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. POPS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

EAST OF BUFFALO...SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT WHICH HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO DROP A BIT. 11U-3.9U SATELLITE SHOWS SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NW PA AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES BUT WINDS PREVENT GROUND FOG FROM FORMING. IT IS ALSO
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT NAM/RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND THE HRRR
FORECAST SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM
BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER DUE TO COOLING AND A MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE LIGHTER WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM OHIO ACROSS OUR REGION
WITH SUNNY SKIES CONTINUING TO SPREAD FROM W-E. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOUND ALOFT OVER OUR
REGION...WHICH WILL LIE BETWEEN A CUT OFF LOW EXITING OFF THE
ATLANTIC CANADA COASTLINE AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS WE WARM
ALOFT...AND MOISTURE INCREASES.

WE MAY START TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE TOWARDS
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AREAS NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY.
GREATEST LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIE NORTHWARD CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH LOW CHANCES POPS DOWN
NEAR THE STATE LINE.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DROP ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE JUST ENOUGH UNSTABLE (-1C 850 HPA) AND WITH A
GREAT ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL (15K FEET) TO GENERATE A
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. FOR LAKE ERIE
AMBIENT MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS...WITH NO
BANDS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE...THERE WILL
LINGER ENOUGH LIFT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO STILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SYNOPTIC SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER...AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL APART THROUGH
THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP TOWARDS WESTERN
NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

A BIT OF WARMTH WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. COOLING AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A COOLER DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID
40S...WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
GO CALM. IN FACT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE 30S THAN 40S DEGREE
READINGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN FAIR AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD JUST KEEP OUR AREA DRY. WITH OUR AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT...A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NEAR RECORD WARMTH WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE NEAR AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING
OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS NOT
ABUNDANT DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THIS
COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 HPA DROPPING
DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER
LAKE RESPONSE OFF BOTH LAKES WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRING CHANCES FOR
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SHARP CLEARING LINE JUST WEST OF ROC AT 02Z...WITH
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RETREAT EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS AT ART LATE THIS EVENING SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT
AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY.

PERHAPS THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS OR FOG TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN AREAS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OUT. 11-3.9U SATELLITE SHOWS SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1K FT ACROSS
NW PA AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THESE COULD SPREAD
INTO JHW OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY STRATUS OR
FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR BUF/IAG HOWEVER WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE WILL
KEEP THIS OUT OF THE TAF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION. LOW
MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED
THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/CHURCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/CHURCH/JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240243
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1043 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED...LEAVING JUST A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
SPRINKLES...AREAS EAST OF ROCHESTER WILL MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. POPS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

EAST OF BUFFALO...SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT WHICH HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO DROP A BIT. 11U-3.9U SATELLITE SHOWS SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NW PA AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES BUT WINDS PREVENT GROUND FOG FROM FORMING. IT IS ALSO
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT NAM/RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND THE HRRR
FORECAST SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM
BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER DUE TO COOLING AND A MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE LIGHTER WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM OHIO ACROSS OUR REGION
WITH SUNNY SKIES CONTINUING TO SPREAD FROM W-E. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOUND ALOFT OVER OUR
REGION...WHICH WILL LIE BETWEEN A CUT OFF LOW EXITING OFF THE
ATLANTIC CANADA COASTLINE AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS WE WARM
ALOFT...AND MOISTURE INCREASES.

WE MAY START TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE TOWARDS
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AREAS NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY.
GREATEST LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIE NORTHWARD CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH LOW CHANCES POPS DOWN
NEAR THE STATE LINE.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DROP ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE JUST ENOUGH UNSTABLE (-1C 850 HPA) AND WITH A
GREAT ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL (15K FEET) TO GENERATE A
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. FOR LAKE ERIE
AMBIENT MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS...WITH NO
BANDS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE...THERE WILL
LINGER ENOUGH LIFT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO STILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SYNOPTIC SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER...AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL APART THROUGH
THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP TOWARDS WESTERN
NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

A BIT OF WARMTH WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. COOLING AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A COOLER DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID
40S...WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
GO CALM. IN FACT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE 30S THAN 40S DEGREE
READINGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN FAIR AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD JUST KEEP OUR AREA DRY. WITH OUR AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT...A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NEAR RECORD WARMTH WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE NEAR AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING
OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS NOT
ABUNDANT DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THIS
COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 HPA DROPPING
DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER
LAKE RESPONSE OFF BOTH LAKES WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRING CHANCES FOR
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SHARP CLEARING LINE JUST WEST OF ROC AT 02Z...WITH
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RETREAT EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS AT ART LATE THIS EVENING SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT
AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY.

PERHAPS THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS OR FOG TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN AREAS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OUT. 11-3.9U SATELLITE SHOWS SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1K FT ACROSS
NW PA AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THESE COULD SPREAD
INTO JHW OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY STRATUS OR
FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR BUF/IAG HOWEVER WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE WILL
KEEP THIS OUT OF THE TAF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION. LOW
MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED
THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/CHURCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/CHURCH/JJR








000
FXUS61 KALY 240243
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1040 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...RADARS STILL FOLLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
THE OVERALL TREND OF THESE SHOWERS DIMINISHING. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATED A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUED WORKING INTO THE REGION
WHICH WAS SIGN THAT THE STORM HAS BEGUN TO "DECAY" (FILL) AS IT
MOVED TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD.

THE LOW WILL REACH THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINED SATURATED BUT WITH
TIME...WILL SLOWLY DRY OUT ON FRIDAY.

WITH THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH AT ALL
OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S...MID 40S LOCALLY IN
THE CAPITAL REGION.

NOT MUCH TO UPDATE OVERNIGHT...JUST TOUCHED UP THE HOURLY GRIDS AND
POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS). HOWEVER...IT NOW
APPEARS KPSF MIGHT BE DOWN TO THE COUNT THROUGH TONIGHT (IFR).
ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS AS IF ANY IFR CIGS WILL BE VERY BRIEF. KPOU
MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ON FRIDAY...BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT TAKE AWHILE.

A NORTH WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NW AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATER
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...BUT
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20KTS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50
TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ESTIMATED 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS THE
WILLIAMS AND SAXTONS RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HOOSIC RIVER IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE
GOOD NEWS...ALL THIS RIVERS HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE CRESTED...BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBGM 240132
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
932 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND COME TO AN END
TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. FAIR WEATHER
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
PREVIOUS SHIFT`S POP FORECAST LOOKS EXCELLENT AS CYCLONE PULLS
NORTHWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MIGHT NEED TO LOWER THE NEAR
TERM HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN FA BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT, AS
CURRENT ACTIVITY IS WEAK AND FADING FAST.

NEAR TERM TEMPS AND DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ALTERED.

105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE DRG THE DAY TMRW AS CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES.
HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE WEST BY AFTN WITH SKIES CLRNG RAPIDLY AFT
18Z. DRIER AIR ACCOMPANIES HIPRES, ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
M/U 50S THRU THE DAY. BRIEF S/WV RIDGING WL OCCUR AT UPR LVLS WITH
HGTS ON THE RISE.

SKIES WL BEGIN TO CLD UP LATE FRI NGT AS UPR LVL SYSTEM APPCHS
EASTERN CANADA AND SPREADS HIGH CIRRUS IN BY 12Z SAT. OVRNGT LOWS WL
BE COOLER THAN PRIOR NIGHTS UNDER CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THEREFORE
HV GONE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR FRI NGT LOWS.

MED RANGE MODELS HV COME IN SLOWER WITH WK SFC TROF AND EVENTUAL
PCPN EXPECTED OVR THE WEEKEND. BRIEF RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ON AND
DRY AIRMASS WL BE PREVALENT THRU MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. GFS
INDICATING UPGLIDE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT ACRS THE NORTH AND
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 21Z.

HV RETAINED CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY AS AREA IS UNDER INFLUENCE OF NW
FLOW. TEMPS WL LKLY MODERATE TO NR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
IT`S ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF NEW YORK. SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FROPA...
HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. THIS IS DUE TO CAA AND THE FETCH OVER THE LAKE
RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT ENHANCED SHOWERS.

THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDDING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE NICE WEATHER MAY EXTEND FURTHER
INTO THE WEEK AS EACH GUIDANCE RUN HINTS THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM WILL
PROPAGATE EAST SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CUTOFF LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AND LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW
MVFR/MVFR CATEGORY. AT KBGM IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. ON FRIDAY, CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE EARLY
TO MID MORNING HOURS WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FURTHER TO JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
PERIOD.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT/SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR
ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...DJP/PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KOKX 240029
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
829 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACHES THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE THROUGH GEORGES BANK DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA...WITH WINDS ONLY DIMINISHING A LITTLE LATE AT NIGHT.

SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY LOWER HUD VALLEY/SOUTHERN CT AND EASTERN LI.
THE FIRST OF THESE...AFFECTING THE AREA THIS EVENING...WILL
CONTINUE TO PIVOT THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH A
SECOND POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. OVERALL ANY
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A SHOWER IN SPOTS OVER CT AND EASTERN
LI FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE....DRY ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW STRATO-CU WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH DURING
THE DAY...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
TRI-STATE. CLOUDS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS WEEKEND. CLOSER TO OUR REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
DRY...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG
NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH
20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THE MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL
MODERATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

N-NW FLOW 15G20-25 KT SHOULD ABATE LATE TONIGHT...THEN PICK UP
AGAIN BY 14Z FRI. DIRECTION WILL REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC EVEN
THOUGH WINDS SHOULD BACK MORE NW OVERNIGHT INTO FRI. SOME SHOWERS
COULD IMPACT KGON EARLY AND MOST TERMINALS CLOSE TO DAYBREAK...BUT
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL IMPACT IN FLIGHT CATEGORY.

CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TONIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY LOW-END VFR
AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...BUT COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING. IMPROVEMENT FARTHER INLAND AT KSWF AND TO THE
EAST AT KISP/KGON SHOULD TAKE LONGER...WITH VFR NOT EXPECTED AT
KGON UNTIL AFTERNOON.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHED AMD FOR CIGS POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARGINAL GALES THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO SCA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OTHER WATERS...MAY FALL JUST
BELOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MARGINAL NEARSHORE SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ALL WATERS ON FRI. OCEAN
SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL BELOW SCA FRI AFT.

SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW
WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
FOR THIS EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WITH RESIDUALS CONTINUING TO
FALL INTO TOMORROW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...BC/JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV









000
FXUS61 KALY 240010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
800 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION...STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS FOR
TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING A FEW PATCHES OF RAIN ON
RADAR...AS WELL AS LIKELY PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATE A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WAS WORKING INTO THE REGION WHICH WAS
SIGN THAT THE STORM HAS BEGUN TO "DECAY" (FILL). INDEED THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE...OF THE LOW...TO THE SOUTH OF CAPE COD...LOOKS TO HAVE
RISEN FROM 997 TO 998 MB IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE BRUNT OF THE RAINFALL IS OVER. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINED QUITE SATURATED SO FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND EASTWARD SO THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
AROUND FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT A LITTLE...SO ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. INTERESTING...THE WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
AGAIN DOWN TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE...AS THERE IS BETTER MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OF WIND THROUGH THE COLUMN...SINCE IT IS SOMEWHAT DRIER.
THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS...BUT THEY ARE GENERALLY A LITTLE
HIGHER AND MORE OF TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION DIFFERENCE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY DRY OUT OVERNIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN AND CERTAINLY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RESIDUAL SHOWERS (MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY AT THAT TIME).

DECIDED TO RAISE A FEW MINIMUMS OVERNIGHT DUE THE FACT THE IF
ANYTHING...COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN PLACED BY NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION AND IN SOME CASES...THE 8PM TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS WERE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE 700 PM ONES.  WITH THE CANOPY OF
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH AT ALL OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS). HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS AS IF CIGS WILL OCCASIONAL DIP TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
AT KPSF DUE TO AN UPSLOPE WIND AND KALB DUE TO MOHAWK HUDSON
CONVERGENCE.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS GFL AND KPOU BUT AT THIS POINT...WE
FELT THE THREAT WAS TOO LOW (AND BRIEF) NOT NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. IN FACT...KPOU WAS ACTUALLY MVFR DUE TO THE GUSTY
WINDS.

CONDITIONS MIGHT NOT BOUNCE BACK TO VFR AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES...UNTIL WELL PAST THE MORNING PEAK FRIDAY.

A NORTH WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NW AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATER
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...BUT
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KPOU AND KPSF.


SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50
TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ESTIMATED 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS THE
WILLIAMS AND SAXTONS RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HOOSIC RIVER IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE
GOOD NEWS...ALL THIS RIVERS HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE CRESTED...BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBTV 240007
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
807 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOGGY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH SOME SUN, A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER ON
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT THURSDAY...QUASI-STATIONARY CUTOFF LOW SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD WILL MAINTAIN DEEP MOIST FETCH ACROSS ME/NH AND INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WHICH WILL PIVOT WESTWARD
ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NY WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
WHILE IT WON/T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE NIGHT...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG
EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S. IN
FACT...THE TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON TODAY ONLY VARIED 3 DEGREES
SINCE MIDNIGHT...FROM 44-47F. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH
AT 10-15 MPH. WILL SEE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS WITH CHANNELED
FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH WINDS NORTH AT 15-25 KNOTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN HIGHEST ACROSS WINDSOR COUNTY
IN SERN VT WITH TOTALS RANGING FROM 1.2-1.4". TOTALS STEADILY DROP
OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER
0.53" AT MPV AND 0.37" AT BTV. AMOUNTS ACROSS NRN NY THUS FAR HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN LESS THAN 0.40". AN ELABORATED UPON IN THE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW...FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, THE LOW WILL
BE NEARING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE REGION WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO SLOWLY
FADE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, THE CLEARING WILL LIKELY
BE PAINFULLY SLOW, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN VERMONT. GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE WANTING TO CLEAR MUCH OF THE AREA OUT A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY,
AND AS A RESULT IT`S TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY A TOUCH TOO HIGH.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN AREAS -- ANOTHER DAY GENERALLY IN
THE 40S, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SHOULD
REACH INTO THE 50S (WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).

FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING DRY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STILL BE HANGING
TOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST VERMONT. A LITTLE BIT
OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP A LITTLE (5MPH OR SO),
AND THIS WILL KEEP US FROM SEEING OUR BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
GUIDANCE INDICATED LOW 30S COME SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS, I THOUGHT MID 30S WAS MORE APPROPRIATE.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH MANY OF US SEEING SOME SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WILL BE
APPROACHING BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL TURN FROM
NORTHWEST/WEST TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS CLOUDS SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. BY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
COME INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, SPREADING INTO VERMONT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 8-10C AND A LITTLE BIT OF SUN,
WE SHOULD EASILY BE NEAR NORMAL HIGHS -- IF NOT EVEN A LITTLE
ABOVE. SINCE THE SYSTEM WON`T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
EVEN THOUGH I DO HAVE POPS IN THE 50-70% RANGE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ACTUAL RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE
NOTHING MORE THAN 1/4".

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE CONTINUES TO STREAM
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. OFF AND ON PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL. TAF SITES RELATIVELY RAIN FREE AT FORECAST TIME
2330Z...AND TRIED TO TIME ARRIVAL OF NEXT RAIN BAND ARRIVING FROM
THE EAST AROUND 01-02Z. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...MID MORNING IN
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND CLOSER TO 00Z SATURDAY IN EASTERN
VERMONT. EXPECT A SHARP IMPROVEMENT AS LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT
REVEALING MID-HIGH LEVEL VFR CLOUD DECK.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY
EXCESSIVE THUS FAR (0.5"-1.25" SINCE YESTERDAY IN THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS). DESPITE ANOTHER 0.3-0.7" EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS, RIVERS REMAIN FAR FROM BANKFUL AND WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY HYDRO RELATED ISSUES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THANKS TO CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS DURING THURSDAY WERE AROUND 30 KNOTS
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE, CLOSER TO DIAMOND ISLAND,
AND THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE WIND GETS
FUNNELED THROUGH THE NARROWING VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
LAKE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
CREATING CHOPPY WAVE CONDITIONS. THESE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...HANSON
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 240003
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
803 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW HAS PUSHED SOME MOISTURE AND SHOWERS INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT SHOWERS HAVE FALLEN APART AS THEY
ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. WEST OF ROCHESTER WILL
BE DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES THIS EVENING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES REGION. CLOUDS WILL SPREAD TO THE WEST THIS
EVENING BEFORE RETREATING LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW OFF THE EAST
COAST SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. HAVE SCALED BACK POPS FOR THE EVENING
UPDATE AS RADAR DISPLAYS RATHER SPARSE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH SHOWERS ENDING
AND A GENERAL WEST TO EAST CLEARING LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY. NAM/RUC BUFKIT SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN WESTERN AREAS
WHERE CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH A
MODEST FLOW...THIS COULD JUST MIX OUT...OR THERE COULD BE PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED FOG TO SOME
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR FOG ELSEWHERE
DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE LIGHTER WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 40S.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM OHIO ACROSS OUR REGION
WITH SUNNY SKIES CONTINUING TO SPREAD FROM W-E. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOUND ALOFT OVER OUR
REGION...WHICH WILL LIE BETWEEN A CUT OFF LOW EXITING OFF THE
ATLANTIC CANADA COASTLINE AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS WE WARM
ALOFT...AND MOISTURE INCREASES.

WE MAY START TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE TOWARDS
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AREAS NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY.
GREATEST LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIE NORTHWARD CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH LOW CHANCES POPS DOWN
NEAR THE STATE LINE.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DROP ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE JUST ENOUGH UNSTABLE (-1C 850 HPA) AND WITH A
GREAT ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL (15K FEET) TO GENERATE A
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. FOR LAKE ERIE
AMBIENT MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS...WITH NO
BANDS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE...THERE WILL
LINGER ENOUGH LIFT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO STILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SYNOPTIC SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER...AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL APART THROUGH
THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP TOWARDS WESTERN
NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

A BIT OF WARMTH WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. COOLING AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A COOLER DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID
40S...WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
GO CALM. IN FACT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE 30S THAN 40S DEGREE
READINGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN FAIR AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD JUST KEEP OUR AREA DRY. WITH OUR AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT...A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NEAR RECORD WARMTH WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE NEAR AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING
OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS NOT
ABUNDANT DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THIS
COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 HPA DROPPING
DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER
LAKE RESPONSE OFF BOTH LAKES WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRING CHANCES FOR
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SHARP CLEARING LINE JUST WEST OF ROC AT 00Z. THIS WILL
MEANDER THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING EAST LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
CIGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 3K FT AT ROC...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECT
BUF/IAG/JHW TO ALSO BE VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. AFTER
THAT...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE OF THIS SHOULD
BE SPARSE...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ANY GIVEN TAF LOCATION...BUT
IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBY IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z AT
BUF/IAG/JHW. LOW MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

AT ART...MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER WILL LINGER THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO RAISE CIGS LATE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED
THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/CHURCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/CHURCH/JJR





000
FXUS61 KBGM 240001
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
801 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND COME TO AN END
TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. FAIR WEATHER
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE DRG THE DAY TMRW AS CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES.
HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE WEST BY AFTN WITH SKIES CLRNG RAPIDLY AFT
18Z. DRIER AIR ACCOMPANIES HIPRES, ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
M/U 50S THRU THE DAY. BRIEF S/WV RIDGING WL OCCUR AT UPR LVLS WITH
HGTS ON THE RISE.

SKIES WL BEGIN TO CLD UP LATE FRI NGT AS UPR LVL SYSTEM APPCHS
EASTERN CANADA AND SPREADS HIGH CIRRUS IN BY 12Z SAT. OVRNGT LOWS WL
BE COOLER THAN PRIOR NIGHTS UNDER CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THEREFORE
HV GONE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR FRI NGT LOWS.

MED RANGE MODELS HV COME IN SLOWER WITH WK SFC TROF AND EVENTUAL
PCPN EXPECTED OVR THE WEEKEND. BRIEF RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ON AND
DRY AIRMASS WL BE PREVALENT THRU MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. GFS
INDICATING UPGLIDE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT ACRS THE NORTH AND
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 21Z.

HV RETAINED CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY AS AREA IS UNDER INFLUENCE OF NW
FLOW. TEMPS WL LKLY MODERATE TO NR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
IT`S ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF NEW YORK. SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FROPA...
HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. THIS IS DUE TO CAA AND THE FETCH OVER THE LAKE
RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT ENHANCED SHOWERS.

THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDDING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE NICE WEATHER MAY EXTEND FURTHER
INTO THE WEEK AS EACH GUIDANCE RUN HINTS THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM WILL
PROPAGATE EAST SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CUTOFF LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AND LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW
MVFR/MVFR CATEGORY. AT KBGM IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. ON FRIDAY, CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE EARLY
TO MID MORNING HOURS WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FURTHER TO JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
PERIOD.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT/SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR
ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 232346
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
746 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOGGY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH SOME SUN, A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER ON
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR BETTER OR WORSE, WE FINALLY DID
GET OUR RAINY DAY. A QUICK LOOK AT RAINFALL REPORTS OVER THE LAST
12 HOURS INDICATE THAT MANY AREAS HAVE SEEN 0.3" TO 0.7", WITH A
FEW SPOT TOTALS APPROACHING 1". THUS FAR THE HIGHEST TOTALS HAVE
BEEN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT WHERE SOME
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT HAS HELPED.

FIRST BATCH OF RAIN IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, WITH A
LITTLE BREAK DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN VERMONT. RADAR SHOWS THAT
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN IS
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MAINE INTO NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS
BATCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF VERMONT AND INTO NORTHERN NY DURING THE EVENING. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED THE BASICALLY 100% POPS FOR THESE AREAS AT LEAST UNTIL
MID-EVENING. LOWER CHANCES (ON THE ORDER OF 60-80% ARE PAINTED IN
FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT). GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF NANTUCKET TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
(ALBEIT SLOWLY) OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL TURN FROM EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY. AS WE LOSE THAT VERY MOIST
TAP OFF THE ATLANTIC, THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH FROM WHERE THEY WERE
TODAY, SO LOTS OF LOWER 40S FOR US.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, THE LOW WILL
BE NEARING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE REGION WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO SLOWLY
FADE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, THE CLEARING WILL LIKELY
BE PAINFULLY SLOW, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN VERMONT. GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE WANTING TO CLEAR MUCH OF THE AREA OUT A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY,
AND AS A RESULT IT`S TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY A TOUCH TOO HIGH.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN AREAS -- ANOTHER DAY GENERALLY IN
THE 40S, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SHOULD
REACH INTO THE 50S (WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).

FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING DRY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STILL BE HANGING
TOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST VERMONT. A LITTLE BIT
OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP A LITTLE (5MPH OR SO),
AND THIS WILL KEEP US FROM SEEING OUR BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
GUIDANCE INDICATED LOW 30S COME SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS, I THOUGHT MID 30S WAS MORE APPROPRIATE.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH MANY OF US SEEING SOME SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WILL BE
APPROACHING BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL TURN FROM
NORTHWEST/WEST TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS CLOUDS SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. BY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
COME INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, SPREADING INTO VERMONT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 8-10C AND A LITTLE BIT OF SUN,
WE SHOULD EASILY BE NEAR NORMAL HIGHS -- IF NOT EVEN A LITTLE
ABOVE. SINCE THE SYSTEM WON`T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
EVEN THOUGH I DO HAVE POPS IN THE 50-70% RANGE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ACTUAL RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE
NOTHING MORE THAN 1/4".

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REAMINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE CONTINUES TO STREAM
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. OFF AND ON PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL. TAF SITES RELATIVELY RAIN FREE AT FORECAST TIME
2330Z...AND TRIED TO TIME ARRIVAL OF NEXT RAIN BAND ARRIVING FROM
THE EAST AROUND 01-02Z. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...MID MORNING IN
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND CLOSER TO 00Z SATURDAY IN EASTERN
VERMONT. EXPECT A SHARP IMPROVEMENT AS LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT
REVEALING MID-HIGH LEVEL VFR CLOUD DECK.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY
EXCESSIVE THUS FAR (0.5"-1.25" SINCE YESTERDAY IN THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS). DESPITE ANOTHER 0.3-0.7" EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS, RIVERS REMAIN FAR FROM BANKFUL AND WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY HYDRO RELATED ISSUES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THANKS TO CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS DURING THURSDAY WERE AROUND 30 KNOTS
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE, CLOSER TO DIAMOND ISLAND,
AND THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE WIND GETS
FUNNELED THROUGH THE NARROWING VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
LAKE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
CREATING CHOPPY WAVE CONDITIONS. THESE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...HANSON
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH




000
FXUS61 KOKX 232157
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
557 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACHES THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR NEXT VORT AND AREA OF SHOWERS PIVOTING
DOWN FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO SE CT/E LI THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

STACKED LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING BEFORE PICKING UP FORWARD MOTION TO NE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING A LITTLE LATE AT
NIGHT.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
TONIGHT WILL NOT EXTEND AS FAR WEST FROM THE CENTER OF THE STORM
AS IT HAS OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO. HIGHEST POPS OVER LONG ISLAND
AND CT...WITH THE RAINFALL THREAT ENDING WEST OF THESE AREAS BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A SHOWER IN SPOTS OVER CT AND EASTERN
LI FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE....DRY ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. HIGHER CLOUD COVER WILL BE GENERALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA...BUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN HALF. CLOUDS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS WEEKEND. CLOSER TO OUR REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
DRY...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG
NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH
20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THE MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL
MODERATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST.

AS THE LOW SLOWLY TRACKS AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS SLOW IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS.
EASTERN TERMINALS WILL SEE SLOWER IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING.

STRONG AND GUSTY N TO NW WIND 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE GUSTS ENDING AFTER 05Z.

VFR FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS IMPROVING THIS
EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN
HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS IMPROVING THIS
EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.
STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS IMPROVING THIS
EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.
STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS IMPROVING THIS
EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS IMPROVING THIS
EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS LIKELY INTO THIS
EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. NW WIND G20-25KT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. A TIGHT NW GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS TO ALSO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW
WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE ON AVERAGE THIS EVENING WILL BE A QUARTER
TO HALF FOOT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING. IN SPITE OF SOME LONG PERIOD
SE SWELLS DEVELOPING...THE LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDE COMBINED WITH A
PROLONGED MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BACKS OF LONG
ISLAND AND QUEENS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KALY 232013
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
413 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION...STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS FOR
TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 413 PM EDT...THE SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM THAT HAS BEEN
IMPACTING OUR REGION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW SITUATED JUST
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS SYSTEM IS VERTICALLY STACKED...WITH THE
CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE LOW. A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAS TRANSPORTED A LONG
FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE REGION...KEEPING
PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW IS ALLOWING
FOR A FEW SMALL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON THE DOWNSLOPING SIDE OF
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE...IT IS FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOME STEADY RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE DEFORMATION AXIS OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS STEADY RAINFALL
SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN...AS THE BEST FORCING WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS IS SEEN IN BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRES WRF AND THE 3KM HRRR...AS WELL AS THE NAM12 AND GFS40
MODELS.

ALTHOUGH THE STEADY RAINFALL LOOKS TO END THIS EVENING...A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THANKS TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE.
ADDITIONAL QPF LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CLOUDY...COOL AND DAMP WITH THE ABUNDANT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT
TEMPS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S. A FEW UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ALTHOUGH THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN WILL SHIFT WEST OF
THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHTER
RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST WELL INTO TONIGHT. THIS...COMBINED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING SLIGHTLY MORE INTO THE NORTH AND
DECREASING THE AMT OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND
BERKSHIRES...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL IFR...ESP AT
KALB AND KPSF.

MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z/FRI...ESP AT
KGFL/KALB AND KPOU.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO
50 TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL WILL
TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS HAVE
REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 232011
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
411 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOGGY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH SOME SUN, A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER ON
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR BETTER OR WORSE, WE FINALLY DID
GET OUR RAINY DAY. A QUICK LOOK AT RAINFALL REPORTS OVER THE LAST
12 HOURS INDICATE THAT MANY AREAS HAVE SEEN 0.3" TO 0.7", WITH A
FEW SPOT TOTALS APPROACHING 1". THUS FAR THE HIGHEST TOTALS HAVE
BEEN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT WHERE SOME
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT HAS HELPED.

FIRST BATCH OF RAIN IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, WITH A
LITTLE BREAK DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN VERMONT. RADAR SHOWS THAT
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN IS
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MAINE INTO NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS
BATCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF VERMONT AND INTO NORTHERN NY DURING THE EVENING. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED THE BASICALLY 100% POPS FOR THESE AREAS AT LEAST UNTIL
MID-EVENING. LOWER CHANCES (ON THE ORDER OF 60-80% ARE PAINTED IN
FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT). GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF NANTUCKET TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
(ALBEIT SLOWLY) OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL TURN FROM EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY. AS WE LOSE THAT VERY MOIST
TAP OFF THE ATLANTIC, THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH FROM WHERE THEY WERE
TODAY, SO LOTS OF LOWER 40S FOR US.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, THE LOW WILL
BE NEARING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE REGION WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO SLOWLY
FADE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, THE CLEARING WILL LIKELY
BE PAINFULLY SLOW, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN VERMONT. GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE WANTING TO CLEAR MUCH OF THE AREA OUT A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY,
AND AS A RESULT IT`S TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY A TOUCH TOO HIGH.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN AREAS -- ANOTHER DAY GENERALLY IN
THE 40S, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SHOULD
REACH INTO THE 50S (WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).

FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING DRY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STILL BE HANGING
TOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST VERMONT. A LITTLE BIT
OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP A LITTLE (5MPH OR SO),
AND THIS WILL KEEP US FROM SEEING OUR BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
GUIDANCE INDICATED LOW 30S COME SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS, I THOUGHT MID 30S WAS MORE APPROPRIATE.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH MANY OF US SEEING SOME SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WILL BE
APPROACHING BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL TURN FROM
NORTHWEST/WEST TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS CLOUDS SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. BY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
COME INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, SPREADING INTO VERMONT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 8-10C AND A LITTLE BIT OF SUN,
WE SHOULD EASILY BE NEAR NORMAL HIGHS -- IF NOT EVEN A LITTLE
ABOVE. SINCE THE SYSTEM WON`T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
EVEN THOUGH I DO HAVE POPS IN THE 50-70% RANGE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ACTUAL RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE
NOTHING MORE THAN 1/4".


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REAMINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE REGION THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY
EXCESSIVE THUS FAR (0.5"-1.25" SINCE YESTERDAY IN THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS). DESPITE ANOTHER 0.3-0.7" EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS, RIVERS REMAIN FAR FROM BANKFUL AND WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY HYDRO RELATED ISSUES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THANKS TO CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS DURING THURSDAY WERE AROUND 30 KNOTS
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE, CLOSER TO DIAMOND ISLAND,
AND THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE WIND GETS
FUNNELED THROUGH THE NARROWING VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
LAKE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
CREATING CHOPPY WAVE CONDITIONS. THESE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 231940
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
340 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
CURRENTLY...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW IS PUSHING AN
ENHANCED BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK INTO THE
AREA EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. RADAR IMAGERY AS OF 19Z SHOWS SHOWERS
PUSHING INTO LEWIS COUNTY...FROM EAST TO WEST...AND THIS WESTWARD
PUSH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT...THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PULL BACK OUT TO THE EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO SURGE EASTWARD RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH CLEARING SKIES. A SHARP CUT-OFF IN CLOUD COVER REMAINS
IN PLACE NEAR ROCHESTER...WITH CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST AND OVERCAST
SKIES TO THE EAST. THIS CLOUD COVER...LIKE THE PRECIPITATION HAS
TRENDED BACK TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE LIGHTER WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOUND ALOFT OVER OUR
REGION...WHICH WILL LIE BETWEEN A CUT OFF LOW EXITING OFF THE
ATLANTIC CANADA COASTLINE AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS WE WARM
ALOFT...AND MOISTURE INCREASES.

WE MAY START TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE TOWARDS
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AREAS NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY.
GREATEST LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIE NORTHWARD CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH LOW CHANCES POPS DOWN
NEAR THE STATE LINE.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DROP ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE JUST ENOUGH UNSTABLE (-1C 850 HPA) AND WITH A
GREAT ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL (15K FEET) TO GENERATE A
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. FOR LAKE ERIE
AMBIENT MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS...WITH NO
BANDS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE...THERE WILL
LINGER ENOUGH LIFT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO STILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SYNOPTIC SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER...AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL APART THROUGH
THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP TOWARDS WESTERN
NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

A BIT OF WARMTH WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. COOLING AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A COOLER DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID
40S...WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
GO CALM. IN FACT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE 30S THAN 40S DEGREE
READINGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN FAIR AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD JUST KEEP OUR AREA DRY. WITH OUR AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT...A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NEAR RECORD WARMTH WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE NEAR AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING
OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS NOT
ABUNDANT DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THIS
COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 HPA DROPPING
DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER
LAKE RESPONSE OFF BOTH LAKES WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRING CHANCES FOR
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING CLEAR
SKIES WEST OF KROC. KROC WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF A
SCT-BKN 4-6K FOOT CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KART WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE OF THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE COASTAL
LOW WITH VFR CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...DETERIORATING TO MVFR BY
THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST TERMINALS TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME LOW RISK THAT MVFR CIGS MAY NUDGE WESTWARD ENOUGH TO REACH
KROC...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN AT KART...
POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER TO IFR FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL
WEAKEN...WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES IN THIS REGION TO DIMINISH
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY THIS EVENING.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...CHURCH/JJR/TMA
MARINE...CHURCH/JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 231940
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
340 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
CURRENTLY...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW IS PUSHING AN
ENHANCED BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK INTO THE
AREA EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. RADAR IMAGERY AS OF 19Z SHOWS SHOWERS
PUSHING INTO LEWIS COUNTY...FROM EAST TO WEST...AND THIS WESTWARD
PUSH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT...THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PULL BACK OUT TO THE EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO SURGE EASTWARD RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH CLEARING SKIES. A SHARP CUT-OFF IN CLOUD COVER REMAINS
IN PLACE NEAR ROCHESTER...WITH CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST AND OVERCAST
SKIES TO THE EAST. THIS CLOUD COVER...LIKE THE PRECIPITATION HAS
TRENDED BACK TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE LIGHTER WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOUND ALOFT OVER OUR
REGION...WHICH WILL LIE BETWEEN A CUT OFF LOW EXITING OFF THE
ATLANTIC CANADA COASTLINE AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS WE WARM
ALOFT...AND MOISTURE INCREASES.

WE MAY START TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE TOWARDS
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AREAS NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY.
GREATEST LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIE NORTHWARD CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH LOW CHANCES POPS DOWN
NEAR THE STATE LINE.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DROP ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE JUST ENOUGH UNSTABLE (-1C 850 HPA) AND WITH A
GREAT ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL (15K FEET) TO GENERATE A
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. FOR LAKE ERIE
AMBIENT MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS...WITH NO
BANDS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE...THERE WILL
LINGER ENOUGH LIFT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO STILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SYNOPTIC SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER...AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL APART THROUGH
THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP TOWARDS WESTERN
NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

A BIT OF WARMTH WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. COOLING AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A COOLER DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID
40S...WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
GO CALM. IN FACT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE 30S THAN 40S DEGREE
READINGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN FAIR AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD JUST KEEP OUR AREA DRY. WITH OUR AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT...A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NEAR RECORD WARMTH WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE NEAR AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING
OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS NOT
ABUNDANT DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THIS
COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 HPA DROPPING
DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER
LAKE RESPONSE OFF BOTH LAKES WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRING CHANCES FOR
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING CLEAR
SKIES WEST OF KROC. KROC WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF A
SCT-BKN 4-6K FOOT CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KART WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE OF THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE COASTAL
LOW WITH VFR CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...DETERIORATING TO MVFR BY
THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST TERMINALS TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME LOW RISK THAT MVFR CIGS MAY NUDGE WESTWARD ENOUGH TO REACH
KROC...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN AT KART...
POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER TO IFR FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL
WEAKEN...WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES IN THIS REGION TO DIMINISH
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY THIS EVENING.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...CHURCH/JJR/TMA
MARINE...CHURCH/JJR








000
FXUS61 KBTV 231936
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REAMINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE REGION THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231936
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REAMINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE REGION THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KOKX 231919
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
318 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACHES THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING BEFORE PICKING UP FORWARD MOTION TO NE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING A LITTLE LATE AT NIGHT.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AREAS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TONIGHT
WILL NOT EXTEND AS FAR WEST FROM THE CENTER OF THE STORM AS IT HAS
OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH CHC
POPS...HIGHEST OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT...WITH THE RAINFALL THREAT
ENDING WEST OF THESE AREAS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A SHOWER IN SPOTS OVER CT AND EASTERN
LI FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE....DRY ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. HIGHER CLOUD COVER WILL BE GENERALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA...BUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN HALF. CLOUDS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS WEEKEND. CLOSER TO OUR REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
DRY...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG
NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH
20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THE MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL
MODERATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST.

AS THE LOW SLOWLY TRACKS AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
CEILINGS HAVE BECOME VARIABLE FROM MVFR TO VFR...WITH CEILINGS
RANGING FROM AROUND 1500 TO 3500 FT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

STRONG AND GUSTY N TO NW WIND 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE GUSTS ENDING AFTER 05Z.

VFR FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING.



   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY
BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE
OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN
HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS LIKELY INTO THIS
EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. NW WIND G20-25KT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. A TIGHT NW GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS TO ALSO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW
WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE ON AVERAGE THIS EVENING WILL BE A QUARTER
TO HALF FOOT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING. IN SPITE OF SOME LONG PERIOD
SE SWELLS DEVELOPING...THE LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDE COMBINED WITH A
PROLONGED MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BACKS OF LONG
ISLAND AND QUEENS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 231919
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
318 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACHES THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING BEFORE PICKING UP FORWARD MOTION TO NE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING A LITTLE LATE AT NIGHT.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AREAS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TONIGHT
WILL NOT EXTEND AS FAR WEST FROM THE CENTER OF THE STORM AS IT HAS
OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH CHC
POPS...HIGHEST OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT...WITH THE RAINFALL THREAT
ENDING WEST OF THESE AREAS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A SHOWER IN SPOTS OVER CT AND EASTERN
LI FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE....DRY ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. HIGHER CLOUD COVER WILL BE GENERALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA...BUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN HALF. CLOUDS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS WEEKEND. CLOSER TO OUR REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
DRY...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG
NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH
20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THE MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL
MODERATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST.

AS THE LOW SLOWLY TRACKS AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
CEILINGS HAVE BECOME VARIABLE FROM MVFR TO VFR...WITH CEILINGS
RANGING FROM AROUND 1500 TO 3500 FT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

STRONG AND GUSTY N TO NW WIND 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE GUSTS ENDING AFTER 05Z.

VFR FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING.



   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY
BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE
OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN
HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS LIKELY INTO THIS
EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. NW WIND G20-25KT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. A TIGHT NW GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS TO ALSO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW
WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE ON AVERAGE THIS EVENING WILL BE A QUARTER
TO HALF FOOT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING. IN SPITE OF SOME LONG PERIOD
SE SWELLS DEVELOPING...THE LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDE COMBINED WITH A
PROLONGED MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BACKS OF LONG
ISLAND AND QUEENS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 231917
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
317 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND COME TO AN END
TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. FAIR WEATHER
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE DRG THE DAY TMRW AS CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES.
HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE WEST BY AFTN WITH SKIES CLRNG RAPIDLY AFT
18Z. DRIER AIR ACCOMPANIES HIPRES, ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
M/U 50S THRU THE DAY. BRIEF S/WV RIDGING WL OCCUR AT UPR LVLS WITH
HGTS ON THE RISE.

SKIES WL BEGIN TO CLD UP LATE FRI NGT AS UPR LVL SYSTEM APPCHS
EASTERN CANADA AND SPREADS HIGH CIRRUS IN BY 12Z SAT. OVRNGT LOWS WL
BE COOLER THAN PRIOR NIGHTS UNDER CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THEREFORE
HV GONE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR FRI NGT LOWS.

MED RANGE MODELS HV COME IN SLOWER WITH WK SFC TROF AND EVENTUAL
PCPN EXPECTED OVR THE WEEKEND. BRIEF RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ON AND
DRY AIRMASS WL BE PREVALENT THRU MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. GFS
INDICATING UPGLIDE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT ACRS THE NORTH AND
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 21Z.

HV RETAINED CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY AS AREA IS UNDER INFLUENCE OF NW
FLOW. TEMPS WL LKLY MODERATE TO NR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
IT`S ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF NEW YORK. SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FROPA...
HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. THIS IS DUE TO CAA AND THE FETCH OVER THE LAKE
RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT ENHANCED SHOWERS.

THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDDING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE NICE WEATHER MAY EXTEND FURTHER
INTO THE WEEK AS EACH GUIDANCE RUN HINTS THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM WILL
PROPAGATE EAST SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CREATE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARDS CANADA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
IT WILL ALSO BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AND NORTHEAST PA. VISBYS MAY FALL TO AROUND 3SM WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MOSTLY AT MVFR THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING DRY AIR WILL START TO PUSH IN RESULTING IN
SKIES CLEARING OUT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TIMING OF THIS CLEARING
OUT ON FRIDAY MORNING. TRIED TO PLACE THE BEST TIMING ON THE
CLEARING BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST WHEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
RETURN.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 231917
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
317 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND COME TO AN END
TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. FAIR WEATHER
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE DRG THE DAY TMRW AS CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES.
HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE WEST BY AFTN WITH SKIES CLRNG RAPIDLY AFT
18Z. DRIER AIR ACCOMPANIES HIPRES, ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
M/U 50S THRU THE DAY. BRIEF S/WV RIDGING WL OCCUR AT UPR LVLS WITH
HGTS ON THE RISE.

SKIES WL BEGIN TO CLD UP LATE FRI NGT AS UPR LVL SYSTEM APPCHS
EASTERN CANADA AND SPREADS HIGH CIRRUS IN BY 12Z SAT. OVRNGT LOWS WL
BE COOLER THAN PRIOR NIGHTS UNDER CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THEREFORE
HV GONE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR FRI NGT LOWS.

MED RANGE MODELS HV COME IN SLOWER WITH WK SFC TROF AND EVENTUAL
PCPN EXPECTED OVR THE WEEKEND. BRIEF RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ON AND
DRY AIRMASS WL BE PREVALENT THRU MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. GFS
INDICATING UPGLIDE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT ACRS THE NORTH AND
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 21Z.

HV RETAINED CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY AS AREA IS UNDER INFLUENCE OF NW
FLOW. TEMPS WL LKLY MODERATE TO NR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
IT`S ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF NEW YORK. SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FROPA...
HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. THIS IS DUE TO CAA AND THE FETCH OVER THE LAKE
RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT ENHANCED SHOWERS.

THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDDING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE NICE WEATHER MAY EXTEND FURTHER
INTO THE WEEK AS EACH GUIDANCE RUN HINTS THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM WILL
PROPAGATE EAST SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CREATE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARDS CANADA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
IT WILL ALSO BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AND NORTHEAST PA. VISBYS MAY FALL TO AROUND 3SM WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MOSTLY AT MVFR THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING DRY AIR WILL START TO PUSH IN RESULTING IN
SKIES CLEARING OUT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TIMING OF THIS CLEARING
OUT ON FRIDAY MORNING. TRIED TO PLACE THE BEST TIMING ON THE
CLEARING BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST WHEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
RETURN.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 231814
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
214 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND COME TO AN END
TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. FAIR WEATHER
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE DRG THE DAY TMRW AS CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES.
HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE WEST BY AFTN WITH SKIES CLRNG RAPIDLY AFT
18Z. DRIER AIR ACCOMPANIES HIPRES, ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
M/U 50S THRU THE DAY. BRIEF S/WV RIDGING WL OCCUR AT UPR LVLS WITH
HGTS ON THE RISE.

SKIES WL BEGIN TO CLD UP LATE FRI NGT AS UPR LVL SYSTEM APPCHS
EASTERN CANADA AND SPREADS HIGH CIRRUS IN BY 12Z SAT. OVRNGT LOWS WL
BE COOLER THAN PRIOR NIGHTS UNDER CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THEREFORE
HV GONE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR FRI NGT LOWS.

MED RANGE MODELS HV COME IN SLOWER WITH WK SFC TROF AND EVENTUAL
PCPN EXPECTED OVR THE WEEKEND. BRIEF RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ON AND
DRY AIRMASS WL BE PREVALENT THRU MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. GFS
INDICATING UPGLIDE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT ACRS THE NORTH AND
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 21Z.

HV RETAINED CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY AS AREA IS UNDER INFLUENCE OF NW
FLOW. TEMPS WL LKLY MODERATE TO NR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CREATE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARDS CANADA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
IT WILL ALSO BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AND NORTHEAST PA. VISBYS MAY FALL TO AROUND 3SM WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MOSTLY AT MVFR THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING DRY AIR WILL START TO PUSH IN RESULTING IN
SKIES CLEARING OUT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TIMING OF THIS CLEARING
OUT ON FRIDAY MORNING. TRIED TO PLACE THE BEST TIMING ON THE
CLEARING BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST WHEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
RETURN.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...KAH







000
FXUS61 KBGM 231814
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
214 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND COME TO AN END
TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. FAIR WEATHER
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE DRG THE DAY TMRW AS CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES.
HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE WEST BY AFTN WITH SKIES CLRNG RAPIDLY AFT
18Z. DRIER AIR ACCOMPANIES HIPRES, ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
M/U 50S THRU THE DAY. BRIEF S/WV RIDGING WL OCCUR AT UPR LVLS WITH
HGTS ON THE RISE.

SKIES WL BEGIN TO CLD UP LATE FRI NGT AS UPR LVL SYSTEM APPCHS
EASTERN CANADA AND SPREADS HIGH CIRRUS IN BY 12Z SAT. OVRNGT LOWS WL
BE COOLER THAN PRIOR NIGHTS UNDER CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THEREFORE
HV GONE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR FRI NGT LOWS.

MED RANGE MODELS HV COME IN SLOWER WITH WK SFC TROF AND EVENTUAL
PCPN EXPECTED OVR THE WEEKEND. BRIEF RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ON AND
DRY AIRMASS WL BE PREVALENT THRU MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. GFS
INDICATING UPGLIDE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT ACRS THE NORTH AND
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 21Z.

HV RETAINED CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY AS AREA IS UNDER INFLUENCE OF NW
FLOW. TEMPS WL LKLY MODERATE TO NR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CREATE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARDS CANADA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
IT WILL ALSO BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AND NORTHEAST PA. VISBYS MAY FALL TO AROUND 3SM WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MOSTLY AT MVFR THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING DRY AIR WILL START TO PUSH IN RESULTING IN
SKIES CLEARING OUT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TIMING OF THIS CLEARING
OUT ON FRIDAY MORNING. TRIED TO PLACE THE BEST TIMING ON THE
CLEARING BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST WHEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
RETURN.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...KAH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 231811
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
211 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE REGION THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231811
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
211 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE REGION THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBGM 231759
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
159 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD SOME LINGERING --SHRA ACRS THE TUG AND WRN CATSKILLS
VERY ERLY FRIDAY..OTRW IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PS SKIES DVLPNG.
BRIEF RIDGING ON FRI NGT BUT NXT WAVE MOVS IN FOR SAT. MDLS
SUGGEST A PD OF CLDS IN THE MRNG ASSCD WITH WAA THEN PS SKIES
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. BEST CHCS FOR -SHRA ACRS NRN ZONES
LATER IN THE AFTN WITH SCT -SHRA ON SAT NGT ACRS CNTRL NY AS MOIST
AND COOLER NW FLOW DVLPS POST FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CREATE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARDS CANADA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
IT WILL ALSO BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AND NORTHEAST PA. VISBYS MAY FALL TO AROUND 3SM WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MOSTLY AT MVFR THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING DRY AIR WILL START TO PUSH IN RESULTING IN
SKIES CLEARING OUT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TIMING OF THIS CLEARING
OUT ON FRIDAY MORNING. TRIED TO PLACE THE BEST TIMING ON THE
CLEARING BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST WHEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
RETURN.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...KAH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 231759
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
159 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD SOME LINGERING --SHRA ACRS THE TUG AND WRN CATSKILLS
VERY ERLY FRIDAY..OTRW IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PS SKIES DVLPNG.
BRIEF RIDGING ON FRI NGT BUT NXT WAVE MOVS IN FOR SAT. MDLS
SUGGEST A PD OF CLDS IN THE MRNG ASSCD WITH WAA THEN PS SKIES
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. BEST CHCS FOR -SHRA ACRS NRN ZONES
LATER IN THE AFTN WITH SCT -SHRA ON SAT NGT ACRS CNTRL NY AS MOIST
AND COOLER NW FLOW DVLPS POST FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CREATE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARDS CANADA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
IT WILL ALSO BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AND NORTHEAST PA. VISBYS MAY FALL TO AROUND 3SM WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MOSTLY AT MVFR THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING DRY AIR WILL START TO PUSH IN RESULTING IN
SKIES CLEARING OUT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TIMING OF THIS CLEARING
OUT ON FRIDAY MORNING. TRIED TO PLACE THE BEST TIMING ON THE
CLEARING BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST WHEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
RETURN.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...KAH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 231743
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN MID-
MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE...THOUGH UPSTREAM OBS ONLY
SUPPORT VFR VSBY. EXCEPTION ON THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN BY MID-
MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHERLY AT 8-12KTS THRU THE PERIOD
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231743
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN MID-
MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE...THOUGH UPSTREAM OBS ONLY
SUPPORT VFR VSBY. EXCEPTION ON THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN BY MID-
MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHERLY AT 8-12KTS THRU THE PERIOD
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBUF 231735
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
135 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THE WORST EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
TO OUR EAST...MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A FEW SHOWERS TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER TO THE WEST...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DROP OFF SHARPLY WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT...WITH AREAS FROM
THE GENESEE VALLEY/WESTERNMOST FINGER LAKES WESTWARD LIKELY TO
REMAIN TOTALLY DRY.

IN TERMS OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...THIS WILL
EXTEND A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT SEPARATING THESE CLOUDS FROM MOSTLY SUNNY/MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A NOTABLE EAST-WEST GRADIENT IN HIGHS
TODAY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTRIBUTIONS OF PRECIP CHANCES AND
SKY COVER...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS /M-U40S/ FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS /U50S/ ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL THEN FALL TO THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE NORMALLY
COOLER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL LATE OCTOBER VALUES. MUCH OF THE
CREDIT FOR THE LACK OF COLD  WEATHER WILL BE GIVEN TO A DEEP PACIFIC
BASED ZONAL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL BLOCK ANY REAL COLD
AIR FROM PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

ONE CAN TELL THAT THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR AWHILE...AS
THERE IS REALLY NO COLD AIR ANYWHERE IN NORTH AMERICA. THE ZERO H85
ISOTHERM IS LARGELY NORTH OF 60N LATITUDE. IN ANY CASE...THIS
PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 140KT H25 JET
THAT WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE WESTERN CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE THIS
WILL INITIALLY HELP TO FLOOD THE LOWER 48 WITH MILD PACIFIC AIR...
THE ENERGY WITHIN THIS JET WILL ULTIMATELY SPAWN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA DURING THE WEEKEND. UNLIKE THIS PAST UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION THOUGH...THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL HAVE A SHORT DURATION
IMPACT ON OUR REGION. GETTING INTO THE DETAILS...

ON FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WHILE SURFACE BASED
RIDGING WILL WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH A LEFTOVER
EARLY MORNING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...
WHILE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 140KT
H25 JET WILL PLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE ENSUING WARM
ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL HELP TO HOLD UP OVER OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE EAST OF LK
ONTARIO AND IN SOME OF THE DEEPER SRN TIER VALLEYS WHERE READINGS
WILL SETTLE INTO THE 30S.

ON SATURDAY...THE POWERFUL H25 JET (+3 STD) AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THAT WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...THE BULK OF WHICH...WILL FALL EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH LIKELY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND
KEEP CHC POPS ELSEWHERE WHERE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE
RAIN FREE.

MUCH COOLER...ALBEIT IT PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL THEN CHARGE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRESH AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF -1C WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE A LAKE
RESPONSE EAST OF BOTH LAKES...WHILE CHANNELLED VORTICITY WITHIN A
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME NUISANCE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH SHOULD BE PCPN FREE.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE NATIONS MID
SECTION WHILE A MATURE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPORARILY ANCHORED
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
REGION WITHIN A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH DISORGANIZED LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEING CONCENTRATED EAST OF LK ONTARIO. WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO CONTEND
WITH...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PCPN. TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO COLD AIR IN SIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL AVERAGE A SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL LATE
OCTOBER VALUES DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION...A
RELATIVELY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW HAS DOMINATED THE PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE PAST WEEK TO TEN DAYS. THE RESULT OF THIS
HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ANY COLD AIR...EVEN OVER THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF CANADA. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE LOWER 48
DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TOO WILL THE WARMTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 50S FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AT THE HEIGHT OF
THE EVENT ON TUESDAY.

THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE UPCOMING STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WILL BE A
PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY ROTATING ABOUT A DEEP CLOSED
LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. THESE POTENT BUNDLES OF ENERGY WILL
SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WHILE A BROAD
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS RIDGE
WILL PUSH OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE FINE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
FOR OUTDOOR FALL ACTIVITIES.

ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH...A CUTTER STORM LIFTING NORTH FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SLING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL END OUR STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WHILE PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...
GIVEN THE LACK OF `COLD` AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN LATITUDES OF NORTH
AMERICA...IT IS LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH HALLOWEEN AND INTO THE START OF NOVEMBER. IN FACT...
IF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE MERCURY
COULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING CLEAR
SKIES WEST OF KROC. KROC WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF A
SCT-BKN 4-6K FOOT CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KART WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE OF THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE COASTAL
LOW WITH VFR CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...DETERIORATING TO MVFR BY
THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST TERMINALS TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME LOW RISK THAT MVFR CIGS MAY NUDGE WESTWARD ENOUGH TO REACH
KROC...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN AT KART...
POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER TO IFR FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN...WHICH
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES IN THIS REGION TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...CHURCH/JJR/TMA
MARINE...JJR





000
FXUS61 KALY 231735
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...A STACKED COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO SIT AND
SPIN JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. A BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS
MOVED WESTWARD INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND
THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THIS BAND CONTINUING TO MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FURTHER EAST...THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT THE BULK OF
THE RAIN FOR THIS AFTN HAS ENDED FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY ON
EASTWARD. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT LEAST CHC IN ALL AREAS...SINCE A
FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE.

WITH THE CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MOST HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING BETWEEN 45-50...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 50S IN PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN LITCHFIELD CO. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER/MID 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ALTHOUGH THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN WILL SHIFT WEST OF
THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHTER
RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST WELL INTO TONIGHT. THIS...COMBINED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING SLIGHTLY MORE INTO THE NORTH AND
DECREASING THE AMT OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND
BERKSHIRES...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL IFR...ESP AT
KALB AND KPSF.

MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z/FRI...ESP AT
KGFL/KALB AND KPOU.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 231733
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
133 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK WILL DEEPEN AND MEANDER IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY TODAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEARLY STACKED LOW MEANDERS NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK TODAY. CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAND
OF SHOWERS PIVOTING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...SO EXPECTING LESS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOWERED HIGH TEMP FORECAST
A FEW DEGREES FOR MOST SPOTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND OBS.

NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES
TONIGHT...TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THINGS WILL
BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM W TO E THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING POPS.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRI WITH PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE
IN THE DAY FRI.

WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRI. CHILLY TONIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. A BIT WARMER ON
FRI GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY
BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.

THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE...AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF
H5 SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. STRONG NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK AND
THEN DEPARTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE
AND TEMPS WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOMETIME LATE IN THE
NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST.

MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH A CHANCE OF VFR CEILINGS
BRIEFLY UNTIL AFTER 20Z WHEN CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR
OR HIGH END MVFR...AROUND 30K FT. STEADY RAIN ACROSS NEW JERSEY
TERMINALS INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG LIKELY. WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED 23Z TO 03Z.

STRONG AND GUSTY N TO NW WIND 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE GUSTS ENDING AFTER 05Z.

VFR FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING.



   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WITH
IMPROVEMENT LATE. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF
AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WITH
IMPROVEMENT LATE. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF
AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE
OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS LIKELY INTO THIS
EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT LATE THIS EVENING.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. NW WIND G20-25KT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK...THEN TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. GALES
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND AT THE SAME TIME...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OTHER
WATERS.

SCA GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN AFTER GALES SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL LINGER INTO FRI AFTN. SUB
ADVSY CONDS ELSEWHERE.

MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE
BALANCE OF TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTHWEST OF THE CITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE ON AVERAGE THIS EVENING WILL BE A QUARTER
TO HALF FOOT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING. IN SPITE OF SOME LONG PERIOD
SE SWELLS DEVELOPING...THE LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDE COMBINED WITH A
PROLONGED MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BACKS OF LONG
ISLAND AND QUEENS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MPS
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...24/MPS
HYDROLOGY...24/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC










000
FXUS61 KALY 231727
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...A STACKED COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO SIT AND
SPIN JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. A BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS
MOVED WESTWARD INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND
THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THIS BAND CONTINUING TO MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FURTHER EAST...THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT THE BULK OF
THE RAIN FOR THIS AFTN HAS ENDED FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY ON
EASTWARD. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT LEAST CHC IN ALL AREAS...SINCE A
FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE.

WITH THE CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MOST HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING BETWEEN 45-50...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 50S IN PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN LITCHFIELD CO. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER/MID 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AS OF 700 AM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR
RANGE. THE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IFR
CONDITIONS REPORTED DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDE SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z AT KALB/KPSF WHERE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...KPOU WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
RAIN TAPERS TO -SHRA. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT KPSF...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV








000
FXUS61 KBGM 231706
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
106 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD SOME LINGERING --SHRA ACRS THE TUG AND WRN CATSKILLS
VERY ERLY FRIDAY..OTRW IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PS SKIES DVLPNG.
BRIEF RIDGING ON FRI NGT BUT NXT WAVE MOVS IN FOR SAT. MDLS
SUGGEST A PD OF CLDS IN THE MRNG ASSCD WITH WAA THEN PS SKIES
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. BEST CHCS FOR -SHRA ACRS NRN ZONES
LATER IN THE AFTN WITH SCT -SHRA ON SAT NGT ACRS CNTRL NY AS MOIST
AND COOLER NW FLOW DVLPS POST FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...AND THE SYSTEM IS BIG ENOUGH TO THE POINT
THAT OUR TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND IT...SCT -SHRA AS WELL
EXCEPT FOR KITH-KELM. CIGS AT FUEL ALT MVFR KAVP-KITH-KBGM
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO HIGHER END MVFR...OTHER TERMINALS MAINLY
HIGHER END MVFR. KAVP-KBGM PROBABLY DIPPING BACK TO FUEL ALT MVFR
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERS GENERALLY SCATTERING OUT BUT
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THIS. PERSISTENT FUEL ALT MVFR FOR KAVP. WINDS
NNW TO NW 8-14 KTS...GUSTING 18-22 KTS...THEN BACKING AND
DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 231706
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
106 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD SOME LINGERING --SHRA ACRS THE TUG AND WRN CATSKILLS
VERY ERLY FRIDAY..OTRW IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PS SKIES DVLPNG.
BRIEF RIDGING ON FRI NGT BUT NXT WAVE MOVS IN FOR SAT. MDLS
SUGGEST A PD OF CLDS IN THE MRNG ASSCD WITH WAA THEN PS SKIES
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. BEST CHCS FOR -SHRA ACRS NRN ZONES
LATER IN THE AFTN WITH SCT -SHRA ON SAT NGT ACRS CNTRL NY AS MOIST
AND COOLER NW FLOW DVLPS POST FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...AND THE SYSTEM IS BIG ENOUGH TO THE POINT
THAT OUR TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND IT...SCT -SHRA AS WELL
EXCEPT FOR KITH-KELM. CIGS AT FUEL ALT MVFR KAVP-KITH-KBGM
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO HIGHER END MVFR...OTHER TERMINALS MAINLY
HIGHER END MVFR. KAVP-KBGM PROBABLY DIPPING BACK TO FUEL ALT MVFR
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERS GENERALLY SCATTERING OUT BUT
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THIS. PERSISTENT FUEL ALT MVFR FOR KAVP. WINDS
NNW TO NW 8-14 KTS...GUSTING 18-22 KTS...THEN BACKING AND
DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KALY 231444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS
LIKELY. THE PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS SOME E-SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES HAS LED TO SOME TOTALS REACHING
2.5-3 INCHES...WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL 0.5-1 INCH ADDITIONAL
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SEE HYDRO
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIELD...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE THROUGH 1030 AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL NOON WHEN AT
LEAST SOME RAIN SHOULD FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS
FROM AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE TO LOW
LIKELY POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
MOST HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BETWEEN 45-50...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER
50S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN
LITCHFIELD CO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AS OF 700 AM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR
RANGE. THE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IFR
CONDITIONS REPORTED DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDE SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z AT KALB/KPSF WHERE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...KPOU WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
RAIN TAPERS TO -SHRA. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT KPSF...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 231444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS
LIKELY. THE PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS SOME E-SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES HAS LED TO SOME TOTALS REACHING
2.5-3 INCHES...WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL 0.5-1 INCH ADDITIONAL
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SEE HYDRO
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIELD...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE THROUGH 1030 AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL NOON WHEN AT
LEAST SOME RAIN SHOULD FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS
FROM AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE TO LOW
LIKELY POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
MOST HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BETWEEN 45-50...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER
50S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN
LITCHFIELD CO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AS OF 700 AM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR
RANGE. THE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IFR
CONDITIONS REPORTED DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDE SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z AT KALB/KPSF WHERE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...KPOU WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
RAIN TAPERS TO -SHRA. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT KPSF...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 231438
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1038 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK WILL DEEPEN AND MEANDER IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY TODAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEARLY STACKED LOW MEANDERS NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT AROUND
THE LOW TODAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...FOCUSED MORE TOWARD
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND DURING THE BALANCE OF
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE LESS
WIDESPREAD BY LATE AFTERNOON.

NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.

NAM MOS TEMPS LOOKED TOO COOL AND WERE DISCOUNTED. SO A BLEND OF
THE MAV/ECS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND TO AROUND 60 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES
TONIGHT...TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THINGS WILL
BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM W TO E THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING POPS.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRI WITH PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE
IN THE DAY FRI.

WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRI. CHILLY TONIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. A BIT WARMER ON
FRI GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY
BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.

THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE...AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF
H5 SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. STRONG NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK AND
THEN DEPARTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE
AND TEMPS WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOMETIME LATE IN THE
NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF MONTAUK POINT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO
THE NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT.

MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME INTO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH BRIEF VFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO
TIME. PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS RAIN BANDS MOVE FROM EAST TO
WEST AROUND THE LOW.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO LOW END VFR...3 TO 5
KFT...LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERN TERMINALS THOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO LOWER CEILINGS A LITTLE LONGER. THEN GENERALLY EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS TONIGHT.

WINDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG FROM THE NORTH...15 TO 20 KT...WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...EXCEPT NYC AND COASTAL
TERMINALS. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT OVERNIGHT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WITH
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE
OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WITH
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE
OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR
OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. TIMING OF
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY MVFR CEILINGS.
NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR IN BRIEF SHOWERS.
W WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK...THEN TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. GALES
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND AT THE SAME TIME...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OTHER
WATERS.

SCA GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN AFTER GALES SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL LINGER INTO FRI AFTN. SUB
ADVSY CONDS ELSEWHERE.

MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE
BALANCE OF TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTHWEST OF THE CITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A COASTAL
FLOODING STATEMENT FOR SPOTS ALONG WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF TOUCHING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS
WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORE OF LONG ISLAND NOW THAT THE WINDS
HAVE BEEN NORTHERLY FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MPS
NEAR TERM...JC/24/MPS
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET/PW
MARINE...24/MPS
HYDROLOGY...24/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC










000
FXUS61 KOKX 231438
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1038 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK WILL DEEPEN AND MEANDER IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY TODAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEARLY STACKED LOW MEANDERS NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT AROUND
THE LOW TODAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...FOCUSED MORE TOWARD
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND DURING THE BALANCE OF
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE LESS
WIDESPREAD BY LATE AFTERNOON.

NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.

NAM MOS TEMPS LOOKED TOO COOL AND WERE DISCOUNTED. SO A BLEND OF
THE MAV/ECS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND TO AROUND 60 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES
TONIGHT...TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THINGS WILL
BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM W TO E THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING POPS.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRI WITH PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE
IN THE DAY FRI.

WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRI. CHILLY TONIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. A BIT WARMER ON
FRI GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY
BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.

THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE...AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF
H5 SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. STRONG NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK AND
THEN DEPARTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE
AND TEMPS WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOMETIME LATE IN THE
NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF MONTAUK POINT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO
THE NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT.

MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME INTO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH BRIEF VFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO
TIME. PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS RAIN BANDS MOVE FROM EAST TO
WEST AROUND THE LOW.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO LOW END VFR...3 TO 5
KFT...LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERN TERMINALS THOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO LOWER CEILINGS A LITTLE LONGER. THEN GENERALLY EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS TONIGHT.

WINDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG FROM THE NORTH...15 TO 20 KT...WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...EXCEPT NYC AND COASTAL
TERMINALS. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT OVERNIGHT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WITH
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE
OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WITH
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE
OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR
OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. TIMING OF
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY MVFR CEILINGS.
NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR IN BRIEF SHOWERS.
W WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK...THEN TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. GALES
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND AT THE SAME TIME...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OTHER
WATERS.

SCA GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN AFTER GALES SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL LINGER INTO FRI AFTN. SUB
ADVSY CONDS ELSEWHERE.

MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE
BALANCE OF TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTHWEST OF THE CITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A COASTAL
FLOODING STATEMENT FOR SPOTS ALONG WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF TOUCHING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS
WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORE OF LONG ISLAND NOW THAT THE WINDS
HAVE BEEN NORTHERLY FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MPS
NEAR TERM...JC/24/MPS
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET/PW
MARINE...24/MPS
HYDROLOGY...24/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC










000
FXUS61 KBUF 231432
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1032 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THE WORST EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
TO OUR EAST...MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A FEW SHOWERS TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER TO THE WEST...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DROP OFF SHARPLY WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT...WITH AREAS FROM
THE GENESEE VALLEY/WESTERNMOST FINGER LAKES WESTWARD LIKELY TO
REMAIN TOTALLY DRY.

IN TERMS OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...THIS WILL
EXTEND A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT SEPARATING THESE CLOUDS FROM MOSTLY SUNNY/MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A NOTABLE EAST-WEST GRADIENT IN HIGHS
TODAY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTRIBUTIONS OF PRECIP CHANCES AND
SKY COVER...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS /M-U40S/ FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS /U50S/ ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL THEN FALL TO THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE NORMALLY
COOLER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL LATE OCTOBER VALUES. MUCH OF THE
CREDIT FOR THE LACK OF COLD  WEATHER WILL BE GIVEN TO A DEEP PACIFIC
BASED ZONAL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL BLOCK ANY REAL COLD
AIR FROM PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

ONE CAN TELL THAT THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR AWHILE...AS
THERE IS REALLY NO COLD AIR ANYWHERE IN NORTH AMERICA. THE ZERO H85
ISOTHERM IS LARGELY NORTH OF 60N LATITUDE. IN ANY CASE...THIS
PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 140KT H25 JET
THAT WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE WESTERN CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE THIS
WILL INITIALLY HELP TO FLOOD THE LOWER 48 WITH MILD PACIFIC AIR...
THE ENERGY WITHIN THIS JET WILL ULTIMATELY SPAWN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA DURING THE WEEKEND. UNLIKE THIS PAST UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION THOUGH...THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL HAVE A SHORT DURATION
IMPACT ON OUR REGION. GETTING INTO THE DETAILS...

ON FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WHILE SURFACE BASED
RIDGING WILL WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH A LEFTOVER
EARLY MORNING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...
WHILE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 140KT
H25 JET WILL PLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE ENSUING WARM
ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL HELP TO HOLD UP OVER OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE EAST OF LK
ONTARIO AND IN SOME OF THE DEEPER SRN TIER VALLEYS WHERE READINGS
WILL SETTLE INTO THE 30S.

ON SATURDAY...THE POWERFUL H25 JET (+3 STD) AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THAT WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...THE BULK OF WHICH...WILL FALL EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH LIKELY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND
KEEP CHC POPS ELSEWHERE WHERE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE
RAIN FREE.

MUCH COOLER...ALBEIT IT PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL THEN CHARGE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRESH AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF -1C WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE A LAKE
RESPONSE EAST OF BOTH LAKES...WHILE CHANNELLED VORTICITY WITHIN A
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME NUISANCE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH SHOULD BE PCPN FREE.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE NATIONS MID
SECTION WHILE A MATURE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPORARILY ANCHORED
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
REGION WITHIN A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH DISORGANIZED LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEING CONCENTRATED EAST OF LK ONTARIO. WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO CONTEND
WITH...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PCPN. TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO COLD AIR IN SIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL AVERAGE A SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL LATE
OCTOBER VALUES DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION...A
RELATIVELY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW HAS DOMINATED THE PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE PAST WEEK TO TEN DAYS. THE RESULT OF THIS
HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ANY COLD AIR...EVEN OVER THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF CANADA. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE LOWER 48
DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TOO WILL THE WARMTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 50S FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AT THE HEIGHT OF
THE EVENT ON TUESDAY.

THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE UPCOMING STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WILL BE A
PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY ROTATING ABOUT A DEEP CLOSED
LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. THESE POTENT BUNDLES OF ENERGY WILL
SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WHILE A BROAD
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS RIDGE
WILL PUSH OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE FINE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
FOR OUTDOOR FALL ACTIVITIES.

ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH...A CUTTER STORM LIFTING NORTH FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SLING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL END OUR STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WHILE PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...
GIVEN THE LACK OF `COLD` AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN LATITUDES OF NORTH
AMERICA...IT IS LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH HALLOWEEN AND INTO THE START OF NOVEMBER. IN FACT...
IF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE MERCURY
COULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ATTENDANT MVFR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BY AND LARGE MAINLY DRY VFR WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS
MORNING...WHERE SOME IFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND/OR MIX OUT
OVER TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN...WHICH
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES IN THIS REGION TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...CHURCH/JJR
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 231432
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1032 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THE WORST EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
TO OUR EAST...MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A FEW SHOWERS TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER TO THE WEST...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DROP OFF SHARPLY WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT...WITH AREAS FROM
THE GENESEE VALLEY/WESTERNMOST FINGER LAKES WESTWARD LIKELY TO
REMAIN TOTALLY DRY.

IN TERMS OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...THIS WILL
EXTEND A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT SEPARATING THESE CLOUDS FROM MOSTLY SUNNY/MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A NOTABLE EAST-WEST GRADIENT IN HIGHS
TODAY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTRIBUTIONS OF PRECIP CHANCES AND
SKY COVER...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS /M-U40S/ FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS /U50S/ ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL THEN FALL TO THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE NORMALLY
COOLER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL LATE OCTOBER VALUES. MUCH OF THE
CREDIT FOR THE LACK OF COLD  WEATHER WILL BE GIVEN TO A DEEP PACIFIC
BASED ZONAL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL BLOCK ANY REAL COLD
AIR FROM PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

ONE CAN TELL THAT THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR AWHILE...AS
THERE IS REALLY NO COLD AIR ANYWHERE IN NORTH AMERICA. THE ZERO H85
ISOTHERM IS LARGELY NORTH OF 60N LATITUDE. IN ANY CASE...THIS
PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 140KT H25 JET
THAT WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE WESTERN CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE THIS
WILL INITIALLY HELP TO FLOOD THE LOWER 48 WITH MILD PACIFIC AIR...
THE ENERGY WITHIN THIS JET WILL ULTIMATELY SPAWN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA DURING THE WEEKEND. UNLIKE THIS PAST UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION THOUGH...THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL HAVE A SHORT DURATION
IMPACT ON OUR REGION. GETTING INTO THE DETAILS...

ON FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WHILE SURFACE BASED
RIDGING WILL WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH A LEFTOVER
EARLY MORNING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...
WHILE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 140KT
H25 JET WILL PLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE ENSUING WARM
ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL HELP TO HOLD UP OVER OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE EAST OF LK
ONTARIO AND IN SOME OF THE DEEPER SRN TIER VALLEYS WHERE READINGS
WILL SETTLE INTO THE 30S.

ON SATURDAY...THE POWERFUL H25 JET (+3 STD) AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THAT WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...THE BULK OF WHICH...WILL FALL EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH LIKELY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND
KEEP CHC POPS ELSEWHERE WHERE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE
RAIN FREE.

MUCH COOLER...ALBEIT IT PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL THEN CHARGE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRESH AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF -1C WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE A LAKE
RESPONSE EAST OF BOTH LAKES...WHILE CHANNELLED VORTICITY WITHIN A
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME NUISANCE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH SHOULD BE PCPN FREE.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE NATIONS MID
SECTION WHILE A MATURE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPORARILY ANCHORED
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
REGION WITHIN A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH DISORGANIZED LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEING CONCENTRATED EAST OF LK ONTARIO. WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO CONTEND
WITH...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PCPN. TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO COLD AIR IN SIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL AVERAGE A SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL LATE
OCTOBER VALUES DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION...A
RELATIVELY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW HAS DOMINATED THE PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE PAST WEEK TO TEN DAYS. THE RESULT OF THIS
HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ANY COLD AIR...EVEN OVER THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF CANADA. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE LOWER 48
DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TOO WILL THE WARMTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 50S FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AT THE HEIGHT OF
THE EVENT ON TUESDAY.

THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE UPCOMING STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WILL BE A
PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY ROTATING ABOUT A DEEP CLOSED
LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. THESE POTENT BUNDLES OF ENERGY WILL
SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WHILE A BROAD
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS RIDGE
WILL PUSH OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE FINE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
FOR OUTDOOR FALL ACTIVITIES.

ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH...A CUTTER STORM LIFTING NORTH FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SLING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL END OUR STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WHILE PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...
GIVEN THE LACK OF `COLD` AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN LATITUDES OF NORTH
AMERICA...IT IS LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH HALLOWEEN AND INTO THE START OF NOVEMBER. IN FACT...
IF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE MERCURY
COULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ATTENDANT MVFR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BY AND LARGE MAINLY DRY VFR WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS
MORNING...WHERE SOME IFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND/OR MIX OUT
OVER TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN...WHICH
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES IN THIS REGION TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...CHURCH/JJR
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBTV 231430
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1019 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATE MORNING FORECAST REFRESH DOESN`T
HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORECAST MODIFICATIONS. RADAR & SATELLITE
TRENDS SHOW THAT THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD RAIN IS SPREADING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. COLDER/DEEPER CLOUDS ARE NOW OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN VERMONT. RADAR SHOWING PRETTY SOLID COVERAGE FROM
EASTERN VERMONT ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTO MAINE. THUS THE
GOING FORECAST FOR POPS TO RAMP UP TO 100% FOR MOST OVER VERMONT
LOOKS GOOD. NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN
SOME DRIER AIR OUT ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN NY, SO ONCE
YOU GET WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, CHANCES FOR RAIN (AND
OVERALL AMOUNTS) WILL QUICKLY DECREASE. AT THE SAME TIME, THE LOW
IS STARTING TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE
ULTIMATE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND RAINFALL.
HAVE THUS MAINTAINED A 30-40% POP OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
FOR THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON.

THOUGH THE POPS WILL BE HIGH, THE TOTAL RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR
IT WILL BE ALL THAT HEAVY. THUS FAR THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE STAYED
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AREA ACROSS MASSACHUSSETS. WILL
STAY WITH THE LOWERING TREND THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL STAY IN
THE 0.5-0.9" RANGE AT THE MOST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AS WELL. DIDN`T MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. 40S WILL BE COMMON, WITH LOW 50S OUT IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DUE TO LESS PRECIPITATION OUT THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN MID-
MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE...THOUGH UPSTREAM OBS ONLY
SUPPORT VFR VSBY. EXCEPTION ON THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN BY MID-
MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHERLY AT 8-12KTS THRU THE PERIOD
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231430
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1019 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATE MORNING FORECAST REFRESH DOESN`T
HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORECAST MODIFICATIONS. RADAR & SATELLITE
TRENDS SHOW THAT THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD RAIN IS SPREADING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. COLDER/DEEPER CLOUDS ARE NOW OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN VERMONT. RADAR SHOWING PRETTY SOLID COVERAGE FROM
EASTERN VERMONT ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTO MAINE. THUS THE
GOING FORECAST FOR POPS TO RAMP UP TO 100% FOR MOST OVER VERMONT
LOOKS GOOD. NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN
SOME DRIER AIR OUT ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN NY, SO ONCE
YOU GET WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, CHANCES FOR RAIN (AND
OVERALL AMOUNTS) WILL QUICKLY DECREASE. AT THE SAME TIME, THE LOW
IS STARTING TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE
ULTIMATE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND RAINFALL.
HAVE THUS MAINTAINED A 30-40% POP OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
FOR THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON.

THOUGH THE POPS WILL BE HIGH, THE TOTAL RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR
IT WILL BE ALL THAT HEAVY. THUS FAR THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE STAYED
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AREA ACROSS MASSACHUSSETS. WILL
STAY WITH THE LOWERING TREND THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL STAY IN
THE 0.5-0.9" RANGE AT THE MOST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AS WELL. DIDN`T MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. 40S WILL BE COMMON, WITH LOW 50S OUT IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DUE TO LESS PRECIPITATION OUT THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN MID-
MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE...THOUGH UPSTREAM OBS ONLY
SUPPORT VFR VSBY. EXCEPTION ON THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN BY MID-
MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHERLY AT 8-12KTS THRU THE PERIOD
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBGM 231356
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
956 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
955 AM UPDATE...
SAME OLD SONG AND DANCE AS YESTERDAY AS COASTAL STORM CONTS TO
SPIN SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS MRNG. LIGHT RAIN HAS MADE IT INTO
AREAS EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THAT THIS WL CONTINUE OFF
AND ON THRU THIS EVNG BFR UPR LOW GETS THE BOOT. EXPECTING A TIGHT
GRADIENT IN PCPN ACRS CNTRL AND WRN SXNS OF CWA TDA AS 1025MB SFC
HIPRES IS SETTLED ACRS THE CORN BELT AND WL SLOWLY BUILD EAST THIS
AFTN. HV CONFINED MAJORITY OF POPS TO EAST OF I-81 THO CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER ACRS THE FINGER LKS THIS AFTN AND HV ADJUSTED
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO BE STUCK
IN THE 40S IN RAIN AREA. LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
WRN ZONES NOT EVEN APPCHG 50 FOR HIGHS AND PLAN TO WAIT ANOTHER
COUPLE OF HRS BFR LOWERING MAXES AS THIS SEEMS A LITTLE FAR-
FETCHED TO ME.

PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO...

540 AM UPDATE...MINOR TWEEKS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS WITH GIST OF FCST
UNCHANGED. PREV BLO...

UPR LOW OFF THE JERSEY SHORE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FCST
AREA TDA AND TNGT. SYSTEM WILL SPIN BANDS OF RAIN INTO ERN ZONES
TDA...WHILE WRN ZONES (STEUBEN/YATES) MAY FLIRT WITH PS SKIES THIS
AFTN. IN ANY EVENT...CAT POPS ERN ZONES TDA...DROPPING OFF TO LOW
CHC POPS ACRS THE WEST WHERE SOME -SHRA COULD MIGRATE WWD INTO
THIS AREA THIS AFTN. POPS SLOWLY DCRS TNGT FROM W TO E AS LOW
SLOWLY MOVS AWAY. NRLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS TDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD SOME LINGERING --SHRA ACRS THE TUG AND WRN CATSKILLS
VERY ERLY FRIDAY..OTRW IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PS SKIES DVLPNG.
BRIEF RIDGING ON FRI NGT BUT NXT WAVE MOVS IN FOR SAT. MDLS
SUGGEST A PD OF CLDS IN THE MRNG ASSCD WITH WAA THEN PS SKIES
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. BEST CHCS FOR -SHRA ACRS NRN ZONES
LATER IN THE AFTN WITH SCT -SHRA ON SAT NGT ACRS CNTRL NY AS MOIST
AND COOLER NW FLOW DVLPS POST FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...AND THE SYSTEM IS BIG ENOUGH TO THE POINT
THAT OUR TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND IT...SCT -SHRA AS WELL
EXCEPT FOR KITH-KELM. CIGS AT FUEL ALT MVFR KAVP-KITH-KBGM
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO HIGHER END MVFR...OTHER TERMINALS MAINLY
HIGHER END MVFR. KAVP-KBGM PROBABLY DIPPING BACK TO FUEL ALT MVFR
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERS GENERALLY SCATTERING OUT BUT
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THIS. PERSISTENT FUEL ALT MVFR FOR KAVP. WINDS
NNW TO NW 8-14 KTS...GUSTING 18-22 KTS...THEN BACKING AND
DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MDP







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