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000
FXUS61 KOKX 292053
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
453 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WORK WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INSTABILITY CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...WITH DEVELOPING
INVERSION FROM AROUND 750-650 HPA SERVING AS A LIMITING FACTOR.
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT...WEIGHED
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOWARDS WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. TO
ACHIEVE THIS USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF
RIP CURRENTS EARLY THIS EVENING AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WHETHER THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND PASSING OF WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE SPRINKLES TO MAYBE ISOLD
SHRA/TSTM ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST
BULLISH FOLLOWED BY THE SREF...THE ECMWF IS DRY AND THE CMC REG
AND GFS SUGGEST LIMITING TO WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE THE MID LEVEL CAP THAT DEVELOPS MIGHT
NOT ERODE...EVEN OVER ORANGE COUNTY. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NW 1/2 OF ORANGE
COUNTY...WHERE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HOWEVER...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7500-8500 FT...AND
500 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TO MUCH CLOUD
DEPTH TO GET LIGHTNING AND/OR SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL...SO WENT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE AS WELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WHERE THE CAP IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
OVER NW ORANGE COUNTY...THE QUESTION IS ARE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SPRINKLES UNDER THE CAP. IF THIS WERE THE
COOL SEASON WOULD BE INCLINED TO SAY YES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO DO SO IN THE WARM SEASON...AS MODELS ON OCCASION OVERDO
THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ELSEWHERE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME INSTABILITY CLOUDS LIKE
TODAY...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT 850 HPA
NW ZONES PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE NE AND MID LEVEL INVERSION
WEAKER THAN TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING...SO DO EXPECT SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON THIS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING AND WORKING EAST AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THERE
ARE CLEARLY TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS...AS WELL AS WITH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT RETROGRADES WEST IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THU INTO SAT. THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BRING A
BOUT OF STEADY RAINS INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO THE SAT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...BUT THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE AND THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THU INTO FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE EAST WITH A
RETURN SLY FLOW. AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. OVERALL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ARE LOW DURING THIS TIME WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
IN THE AFT/EVE HOURS IN THE HILLS NW OF NYC...DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE HEELS
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE GGEM AND GFS BOTH ARE SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. THUS...CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO MON
WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO NE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EAST OF THE CITY TERMINALS.

NW TO W WINDS FOR THE CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS WEST. KISP AND
KBDR MAY EXPERIENCE A COUPLE OF WIND SHIFTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY REMAINING NEARBY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING AT JFK
AS WELL.

VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 03-05Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FORECASTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 16-19KT THRU 00Z. CHANCE
THAT SEA BREEZE PUSHES THROUGH WITH A SSW WIND SHIFT SOMEWHERE IN
THE 00Z-02Z TIME FRAME.

KLGA FORECASTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 16-19KT POSSIBLE THRU
00Z TIMING OF WINDS BACKING WNW COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
WINDS MIGHT NOT BACK TO AROUND 300 MAGNETIC AND REMAIN AT OR NORTH
OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

KEWR FORECASTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL. WINDS
COULD BE BACKED TO 260-280 MAGNETIC AT TIMES BEFORE 23Z.

KTEB FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE COULD RETURN NORTH AND SHIFT
WINDS 240-210 MAGNETIC AS EARLY AS 23Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AT KSWF IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WILL BE
4 FT OR LESS AND ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS 1 FT OR LESS AS A
RESULT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FROM THURSDAY THOUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE
AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO OFFER
SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 292053
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
453 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WORK WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INSTABILITY CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...WITH DEVELOPING
INVERSION FROM AROUND 750-650 HPA SERVING AS A LIMITING FACTOR.
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT...WEIGHED
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOWARDS WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. TO
ACHIEVE THIS USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF
RIP CURRENTS EARLY THIS EVENING AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WHETHER THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND PASSING OF WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE SPRINKLES TO MAYBE ISOLD
SHRA/TSTM ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST
BULLISH FOLLOWED BY THE SREF...THE ECMWF IS DRY AND THE CMC REG
AND GFS SUGGEST LIMITING TO WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE THE MID LEVEL CAP THAT DEVELOPS MIGHT
NOT ERODE...EVEN OVER ORANGE COUNTY. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NW 1/2 OF ORANGE
COUNTY...WHERE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HOWEVER...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7500-8500 FT...AND
500 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TO MUCH CLOUD
DEPTH TO GET LIGHTNING AND/OR SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL...SO WENT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE AS WELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WHERE THE CAP IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
OVER NW ORANGE COUNTY...THE QUESTION IS ARE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SPRINKLES UNDER THE CAP. IF THIS WERE THE
COOL SEASON WOULD BE INCLINED TO SAY YES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO DO SO IN THE WARM SEASON...AS MODELS ON OCCASION OVERDO
THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ELSEWHERE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME INSTABILITY CLOUDS LIKE
TODAY...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT 850 HPA
NW ZONES PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE NE AND MID LEVEL INVERSION
WEAKER THAN TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING...SO DO EXPECT SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON THIS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING AND WORKING EAST AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THERE
ARE CLEARLY TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS...AS WELL AS WITH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT RETROGRADES WEST IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THU INTO SAT. THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BRING A
BOUT OF STEADY RAINS INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO THE SAT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...BUT THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE AND THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THU INTO FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE EAST WITH A
RETURN SLY FLOW. AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. OVERALL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ARE LOW DURING THIS TIME WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
IN THE AFT/EVE HOURS IN THE HILLS NW OF NYC...DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE HEELS
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE GGEM AND GFS BOTH ARE SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. THUS...CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO MON
WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO NE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EAST OF THE CITY TERMINALS.

NW TO W WINDS FOR THE CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS WEST. KISP AND
KBDR MAY EXPERIENCE A COUPLE OF WIND SHIFTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY REMAINING NEARBY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING AT JFK
AS WELL.

VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 03-05Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FORECASTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 16-19KT THRU 00Z. CHANCE
THAT SEA BREEZE PUSHES THROUGH WITH A SSW WIND SHIFT SOMEWHERE IN
THE 00Z-02Z TIME FRAME.

KLGA FORECASTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 16-19KT POSSIBLE THRU
00Z TIMING OF WINDS BACKING WNW COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
WINDS MIGHT NOT BACK TO AROUND 300 MAGNETIC AND REMAIN AT OR NORTH
OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

KEWR FORECASTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL. WINDS
COULD BE BACKED TO 260-280 MAGNETIC AT TIMES BEFORE 23Z.

KTEB FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE COULD RETURN NORTH AND SHIFT
WINDS 240-210 MAGNETIC AS EARLY AS 23Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AT KSWF IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WILL BE
4 FT OR LESS AND ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS 1 FT OR LESS AS A
RESULT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FROM THURSDAY THOUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE
AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO OFFER
SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW





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000
FXUS61 KALY 292010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
304 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MAINLY CLEAR COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...AN AFTERNOON FEELING MORE LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER AS
OPPOSED TO LATE JULY. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 70 TO 75 IN THE
VALLEYS...65 TO 70 HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS BLOTTED OUT
THE SUN AT TIMES...AND RANDOM SPRINKLE COULD NOT BE RULED. A
NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGE 5 TO 10 MPH.

THE CLOUDS AND ANY SPRINKLES WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN.
MOST CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE...THE WIND WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM. THIS
WILL ALL SET US UP FOR A COOL NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO THE
LOWER 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 40S
MOST OUTLYING AREAS. THERE WILL BE PATCHES OF FOG...DENSE IN SPOTS
LATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND QUITE A
BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CLOUDINESS HAS MADE FOR SCATTERED VARIABLE
BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE MORE SCATTERED
CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 06Z-13Z AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON 10 KT...OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
AT KALB AND KPSF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 292010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
304 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MAINLY CLEAR COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...AN AFTERNOON FEELING MORE LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER AS
OPPOSED TO LATE JULY. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 70 TO 75 IN THE
VALLEYS...65 TO 70 HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS BLOTTED OUT
THE SUN AT TIMES...AND RANDOM SPRINKLE COULD NOT BE RULED. A
NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGE 5 TO 10 MPH.

THE CLOUDS AND ANY SPRINKLES WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN.
MOST CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE...THE WIND WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM. THIS
WILL ALL SET US UP FOR A COOL NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO THE
LOWER 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 40S
MOST OUTLYING AREAS. THERE WILL BE PATCHES OF FOG...DENSE IN SPOTS
LATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND QUITE A
BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CLOUDINESS HAS MADE FOR SCATTERED VARIABLE
BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE MORE SCATTERED
CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 06Z-13Z AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON 10 KT...OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
AT KALB AND KPSF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBUF 292006
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
406 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. THE COOL
PATTERN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HANGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND BUT A LINGERING TROUGH
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE
RIDGING AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL CONTINUE THE
CLOUDY SKIES FROM WESTERN NEW YORK EAST TO THE FINGER LAKES. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY MAY STILL PROVIDE SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES BUT SURFACE
RIDGING AND CAP AT 800MB/6500FT WILL LARGELY LIMIT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...MUCH DRIER
AIR ALOFT AS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL KEEP JUST SCT/BKN
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 DEGREES
BELOW LATE JULY AVERAGES. 12Z BUF RAOB MEASURED ONLY +6C AT 850MB
WHICH IS ABOUT -2SD. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES WITH MID 60S ACROSS THE COLDER SPOTS.

TONIGHT ANY ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL TAPER OFF WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. JULY LAKE EFFECT WILL AGAIN BECOME LIKELY AS BUFKIT
PROFILES INDICATE INCREASING LAKE INDUCED CAPE TO 1500 J/KG AND
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING OVER 30KFT. LAKE-850MB DELTA T`S WILL RISE
OVER 13C. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM JUST WEST OF THE LAKES WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR CELLULAR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK. A RISK
FOR WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. SURFACE LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORES TO THE LOW 50S
ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THEN ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A LIKELY
PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THESE PERIODS. COOL TEMPS ALOFT
WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO 30KFT WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME GRAUPEL TO FALL WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
ALONG THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RAISES 850MB TEMPS TO
NEAR +8C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND PROVIDE SEVERAL PERIODS OF ENHANCED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AT TIMES.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS TENDING TO FOCUS OVER AND EAST OF
THE LAKES AGAIN. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY LEFT FOR A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING
FOR SOME DRYING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO BE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY ENOUGH INTO
QUEBEC ON FRIDAY TO BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AND NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES ON
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 50S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING OVER 2/3 OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL SLIGHTLY DEEPEN AND SHARPEN AS A FAIRLY STRONG
WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS PERIOD. AS THIS WAVE BEGINS TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO SUNDAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...A GREAT DEAL OF MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE REGARDING
THE TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH A MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE...RIGHT NOW LEANING TOWARDS THE FASTER SOLUTION WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT.

TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND CLIMO THROUGH THIS
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BKN/OVC VFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO A COOL MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BENEATH A
TROUGH OF COLD AIR ALOFT. ONLY SCT/BKN VFR CLOUDS ARE FOUND TOWARD
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DUE TO THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. ISOLATED SPRINKLES MAY POP UP THIS
AFTERNOON BUT VCSH WAS REMOVED DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPING A LID ON DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...WITH LOW VFR/MVFR POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 12Z AS SOME LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOP EAST OF THE LAKES. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY BRINGING
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND LOW VFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE WATERSPOUTS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES ALONG WITH CHANCES OF LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS EACH NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 292006
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
406 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. THE COOL
PATTERN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HANGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND BUT A LINGERING TROUGH
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE
RIDGING AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL CONTINUE THE
CLOUDY SKIES FROM WESTERN NEW YORK EAST TO THE FINGER LAKES. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY MAY STILL PROVIDE SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES BUT SURFACE
RIDGING AND CAP AT 800MB/6500FT WILL LARGELY LIMIT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...MUCH DRIER
AIR ALOFT AS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL KEEP JUST SCT/BKN
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 DEGREES
BELOW LATE JULY AVERAGES. 12Z BUF RAOB MEASURED ONLY +6C AT 850MB
WHICH IS ABOUT -2SD. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES WITH MID 60S ACROSS THE COLDER SPOTS.

TONIGHT ANY ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL TAPER OFF WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. JULY LAKE EFFECT WILL AGAIN BECOME LIKELY AS BUFKIT
PROFILES INDICATE INCREASING LAKE INDUCED CAPE TO 1500 J/KG AND
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING OVER 30KFT. LAKE-850MB DELTA T`S WILL RISE
OVER 13C. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM JUST WEST OF THE LAKES WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR CELLULAR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK. A RISK
FOR WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. SURFACE LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORES TO THE LOW 50S
ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THEN ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A LIKELY
PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THESE PERIODS. COOL TEMPS ALOFT
WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO 30KFT WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME GRAUPEL TO FALL WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
ALONG THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RAISES 850MB TEMPS TO
NEAR +8C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND PROVIDE SEVERAL PERIODS OF ENHANCED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AT TIMES.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS TENDING TO FOCUS OVER AND EAST OF
THE LAKES AGAIN. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY LEFT FOR A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING
FOR SOME DRYING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO BE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY ENOUGH INTO
QUEBEC ON FRIDAY TO BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AND NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES ON
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 50S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING OVER 2/3 OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL SLIGHTLY DEEPEN AND SHARPEN AS A FAIRLY STRONG
WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS PERIOD. AS THIS WAVE BEGINS TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO SUNDAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...A GREAT DEAL OF MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE REGARDING
THE TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH A MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE...RIGHT NOW LEANING TOWARDS THE FASTER SOLUTION WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT.

TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND CLIMO THROUGH THIS
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BKN/OVC VFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO A COOL MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BENEATH A
TROUGH OF COLD AIR ALOFT. ONLY SCT/BKN VFR CLOUDS ARE FOUND TOWARD
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DUE TO THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. ISOLATED SPRINKLES MAY POP UP THIS
AFTERNOON BUT VCSH WAS REMOVED DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPING A LID ON DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...WITH LOW VFR/MVFR POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 12Z AS SOME LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOP EAST OF THE LAKES. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY BRINGING
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND LOW VFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE WATERSPOUTS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES ALONG WITH CHANCES OF LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS EACH NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 292006
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
406 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WORK WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INSTABILITY CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...WITH DEVELOPING
INVERSION FROM AROUND 750-650 HPA SERVING AS A LIMITING FACTOR.
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT...WEIGHED
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOWARDS WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. TO
ACHIEVE THIS USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF
RIP CURRENTS EARLY THIS EVENING AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WHETHER THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND PASSING OF WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE SPRINKLES TO MAYBE ISOLD
SHRA/TSTM ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST
BULLISH FOLLOWED BY THE SREF...THE ECMWF IS DRY AND THE CMC REG
AND GFS SUGGEST LIMITING TO WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE THE MID LEVEL CAP THAT DEVELOPS MIGHT
NOT ERODE...EVEN OVER ORANGE COUNTY. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NW 1/2 OF ORANGE
COUNTY...WHERE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HOWEVER...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7500-8500 FT...AND
500 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TO MUCH CLOUD
DEPTH TO GET LIGHTNING AND/OR SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL...SO WENT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE AS WELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WHERE THE CAP IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
OVER NW ORANGE COUNTY...THE QUESTION IS ARE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SPRINKLES UNDER THE CAP. IF THIS WERE THE
COOL SEASON WOULD BE INCLINED TO SAY YES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO DO SO IN THE WARM SEASON...AS MODELS ON OCCASION OVERDO
THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ELSEWHERE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME INSTABILITY CLOUDS LIKE
TODAY...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT 850 HPA
NW ZONES PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE NE AND MID LEVEL INVERSION
WEAKER THAN TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING...SO DO EXPECT SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON THIS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING AND WORKING EAST AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THERE
ARE CLEARLY TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS...AS WELL AS WITH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT RETROGRADES WEST IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THU INTO SAT. THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BRING A
BOUT OF STEADY RAINS INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO THE SAT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...BUT THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE AND THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THU INTO FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE EAST WITH A
RETURN SLY FLOW. AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. OVERALL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ARE LOW DURING THIS TIME WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
IN THE AFT/EVE HOURS IN THE HILLS NW OF NYC...DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE HEELS
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE GGEM AND GFS BOTH ARE SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. THUS...CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO MON
WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO NE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE CT COAST IS THROUGH THE CT COASTAL TERMINALS.
SEA BREEZE IS THROUGH SOUTHERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...BUT LIES ALONG THE
COAST IN NASSAU COUNTY AND BROOKLYN AND QUEENS. WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS...WILL BE HARD FOR SEA BREEZE TO
TRACK MUCH FARTHER INLAND. WILL KEEP WINDS AT KEWR WITH A W-NW
DIRECTION. FOR KLGA...WINDS WILL BACK FROM A NW TO A W FLOW BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. FOR KJFK...THINK THE SEA BREEZE MAY LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE TERMINAL FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN WINDS VARYING FROM
W-NW TO W-SW INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 03-05Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL HANG JUST SOUTH OF KJFK...
POSSIBLY LIFTING NORTH FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH 23Z.

KLGA FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS 320-340 MAG...BACKING TO 250-270 MAG
BY 22Z.

KEWR FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OCNL GUSTS TO 17 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z.

KTEB FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AT KSWF IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WILL BE
4 FT OR LESS AND ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS 1 FT OR LESS AS A
RESULT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FROM THURSDAY THOUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE
AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO OFFER
SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 292006
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
406 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WORK WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INSTABILITY CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...WITH DEVELOPING
INVERSION FROM AROUND 750-650 HPA SERVING AS A LIMITING FACTOR.
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT...WEIGHED
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOWARDS WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. TO
ACHIEVE THIS USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF
RIP CURRENTS EARLY THIS EVENING AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WHETHER THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND PASSING OF WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE SPRINKLES TO MAYBE ISOLD
SHRA/TSTM ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST
BULLISH FOLLOWED BY THE SREF...THE ECMWF IS DRY AND THE CMC REG
AND GFS SUGGEST LIMITING TO WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE THE MID LEVEL CAP THAT DEVELOPS MIGHT
NOT ERODE...EVEN OVER ORANGE COUNTY. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NW 1/2 OF ORANGE
COUNTY...WHERE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HOWEVER...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7500-8500 FT...AND
500 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TO MUCH CLOUD
DEPTH TO GET LIGHTNING AND/OR SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL...SO WENT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE AS WELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WHERE THE CAP IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
OVER NW ORANGE COUNTY...THE QUESTION IS ARE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SPRINKLES UNDER THE CAP. IF THIS WERE THE
COOL SEASON WOULD BE INCLINED TO SAY YES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO DO SO IN THE WARM SEASON...AS MODELS ON OCCASION OVERDO
THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ELSEWHERE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME INSTABILITY CLOUDS LIKE
TODAY...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT 850 HPA
NW ZONES PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE NE AND MID LEVEL INVERSION
WEAKER THAN TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING...SO DO EXPECT SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON THIS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING AND WORKING EAST AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THERE
ARE CLEARLY TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS...AS WELL AS WITH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT RETROGRADES WEST IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THU INTO SAT. THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BRING A
BOUT OF STEADY RAINS INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO THE SAT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...BUT THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE AND THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THU INTO FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE EAST WITH A
RETURN SLY FLOW. AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. OVERALL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ARE LOW DURING THIS TIME WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
IN THE AFT/EVE HOURS IN THE HILLS NW OF NYC...DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE HEELS
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE GGEM AND GFS BOTH ARE SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. THUS...CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO MON
WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO NE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE CT COAST IS THROUGH THE CT COASTAL TERMINALS.
SEA BREEZE IS THROUGH SOUTHERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...BUT LIES ALONG THE
COAST IN NASSAU COUNTY AND BROOKLYN AND QUEENS. WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS...WILL BE HARD FOR SEA BREEZE TO
TRACK MUCH FARTHER INLAND. WILL KEEP WINDS AT KEWR WITH A W-NW
DIRECTION. FOR KLGA...WINDS WILL BACK FROM A NW TO A W FLOW BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. FOR KJFK...THINK THE SEA BREEZE MAY LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE TERMINAL FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN WINDS VARYING FROM
W-NW TO W-SW INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 03-05Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL HANG JUST SOUTH OF KJFK...
POSSIBLY LIFTING NORTH FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH 23Z.

KLGA FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS 320-340 MAG...BACKING TO 250-270 MAG
BY 22Z.

KEWR FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OCNL GUSTS TO 17 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z.

KTEB FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AT KSWF IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WILL BE
4 FT OR LESS AND ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS 1 FT OR LESS AS A
RESULT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FROM THURSDAY THOUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE
AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO OFFER
SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 292006
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
406 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WORK WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INSTABILITY CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...WITH DEVELOPING
INVERSION FROM AROUND 750-650 HPA SERVING AS A LIMITING FACTOR.
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT...WEIGHED
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOWARDS WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. TO
ACHIEVE THIS USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF
RIP CURRENTS EARLY THIS EVENING AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WHETHER THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND PASSING OF WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE SPRINKLES TO MAYBE ISOLD
SHRA/TSTM ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST
BULLISH FOLLOWED BY THE SREF...THE ECMWF IS DRY AND THE CMC REG
AND GFS SUGGEST LIMITING TO WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE THE MID LEVEL CAP THAT DEVELOPS MIGHT
NOT ERODE...EVEN OVER ORANGE COUNTY. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NW 1/2 OF ORANGE
COUNTY...WHERE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HOWEVER...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7500-8500 FT...AND
500 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TO MUCH CLOUD
DEPTH TO GET LIGHTNING AND/OR SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL...SO WENT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE AS WELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WHERE THE CAP IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
OVER NW ORANGE COUNTY...THE QUESTION IS ARE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SPRINKLES UNDER THE CAP. IF THIS WERE THE
COOL SEASON WOULD BE INCLINED TO SAY YES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO DO SO IN THE WARM SEASON...AS MODELS ON OCCASION OVERDO
THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ELSEWHERE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME INSTABILITY CLOUDS LIKE
TODAY...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT 850 HPA
NW ZONES PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE NE AND MID LEVEL INVERSION
WEAKER THAN TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING...SO DO EXPECT SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON THIS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING AND WORKING EAST AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THERE
ARE CLEARLY TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS...AS WELL AS WITH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT RETROGRADES WEST IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THU INTO SAT. THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BRING A
BOUT OF STEADY RAINS INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO THE SAT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...BUT THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE AND THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THU INTO FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE EAST WITH A
RETURN SLY FLOW. AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. OVERALL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ARE LOW DURING THIS TIME WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
IN THE AFT/EVE HOURS IN THE HILLS NW OF NYC...DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE HEELS
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE GGEM AND GFS BOTH ARE SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. THUS...CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO MON
WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO NE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE CT COAST IS THROUGH THE CT COASTAL TERMINALS.
SEA BREEZE IS THROUGH SOUTHERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...BUT LIES ALONG THE
COAST IN NASSAU COUNTY AND BROOKLYN AND QUEENS. WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS...WILL BE HARD FOR SEA BREEZE TO
TRACK MUCH FARTHER INLAND. WILL KEEP WINDS AT KEWR WITH A W-NW
DIRECTION. FOR KLGA...WINDS WILL BACK FROM A NW TO A W FLOW BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. FOR KJFK...THINK THE SEA BREEZE MAY LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE TERMINAL FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN WINDS VARYING FROM
W-NW TO W-SW INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 03-05Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL HANG JUST SOUTH OF KJFK...
POSSIBLY LIFTING NORTH FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH 23Z.

KLGA FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS 320-340 MAG...BACKING TO 250-270 MAG
BY 22Z.

KEWR FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OCNL GUSTS TO 17 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z.

KTEB FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AT KSWF IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WILL BE
4 FT OR LESS AND ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS 1 FT OR LESS AS A
RESULT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FROM THURSDAY THOUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE
AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO OFFER
SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW





000
FXUS61 KOKX 292006
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
406 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WORK WEST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INSTABILITY CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...WITH DEVELOPING
INVERSION FROM AROUND 750-650 HPA SERVING AS A LIMITING FACTOR.
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT...WEIGHED
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOWARDS WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. TO
ACHIEVE THIS USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF
RIP CURRENTS EARLY THIS EVENING AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WHETHER THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND PASSING OF WEAK
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE SPRINKLES TO MAYBE ISOLD
SHRA/TSTM ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST
BULLISH FOLLOWED BY THE SREF...THE ECMWF IS DRY AND THE CMC REG
AND GFS SUGGEST LIMITING TO WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE THE MID LEVEL CAP THAT DEVELOPS MIGHT
NOT ERODE...EVEN OVER ORANGE COUNTY. THUS...FOR NOW HAVE OPTED
FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NW 1/2 OF ORANGE
COUNTY...WHERE HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HOWEVER...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7500-8500 FT...AND
500 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TO MUCH CLOUD
DEPTH TO GET LIGHTNING AND/OR SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL...SO WENT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE AS WELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WHERE THE CAP IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
OVER NW ORANGE COUNTY...THE QUESTION IS ARE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SPRINKLES UNDER THE CAP. IF THIS WERE THE
COOL SEASON WOULD BE INCLINED TO SAY YES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO DO SO IN THE WARM SEASON...AS MODELS ON OCCASION OVERDO
THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ELSEWHERE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME INSTABILITY CLOUDS LIKE
TODAY...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT 850 HPA
NW ZONES PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE NE AND MID LEVEL INVERSION
WEAKER THAN TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING...SO DO EXPECT SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON THIS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING AND WORKING EAST AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THERE
ARE CLEARLY TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS...AS WELL AS WITH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT RETROGRADES WEST IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THU INTO SAT. THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BRING A
BOUT OF STEADY RAINS INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO THE SAT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...BUT THERE
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE AND THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THU INTO FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE EAST WITH A
RETURN SLY FLOW. AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. OVERALL CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ARE LOW DURING THIS TIME WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
IN THE AFT/EVE HOURS IN THE HILLS NW OF NYC...DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE HEELS
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THE GGEM AND GFS BOTH ARE SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. THUS...CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO MON
WITH A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO NE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE CT COAST IS THROUGH THE CT COASTAL TERMINALS.
SEA BREEZE IS THROUGH SOUTHERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...BUT LIES ALONG THE
COAST IN NASSAU COUNTY AND BROOKLYN AND QUEENS. WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS...WILL BE HARD FOR SEA BREEZE TO
TRACK MUCH FARTHER INLAND. WILL KEEP WINDS AT KEWR WITH A W-NW
DIRECTION. FOR KLGA...WINDS WILL BACK FROM A NW TO A W FLOW BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. FOR KJFK...THINK THE SEA BREEZE MAY LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE TERMINAL FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN WINDS VARYING FROM
W-NW TO W-SW INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 03-05Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL HANG JUST SOUTH OF KJFK...
POSSIBLY LIFTING NORTH FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH 23Z.

KLGA FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS 320-340 MAG...BACKING TO 250-270 MAG
BY 22Z.

KEWR FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OCNL GUSTS TO 17 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z.

KTEB FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AT KSWF IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WILL BE
4 FT OR LESS AND ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS 1 FT OR LESS AS A
RESULT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FROM THURSDAY THOUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE
AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO OFFER
SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW





000
FXUS61 KBUF 291953
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
353 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. THE COOL
PATTERN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HANGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND BUT A LINGERING TROUGH
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE
RIDGING AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL CONTINUE THE
CLOUDY SKIES FROM WESTERN NEW YORK EAST TO THE FINGER LAKES. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY MAY STILL PROVIDE SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES BUT SURFACE
RIDGING AND CAP AT 800MB/6500FT WILL LARGELY LIMIT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...MUCH DRIER
AIR ALOFT AS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL KEEP JUST SCT/BKN
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 DEGREES
BELOW LATE JULY AVERAGES. 12Z BUF RAOB MEASURED ONLY +6C AT 850MB
WHICH IS ABOUT -2SD. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES WITH MID 60S ACROSS THE COLDER SPOTS.

TONIGHT ANY ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL TAPER OFF WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. JULY LAKE EFFECT WILL AGAIN BECOME LIKELY AS BUFKIT
PROFILES INDICATE INCREASING LAKE INDUCED CAPE TO 1500 J/KG AND
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING OVER 30KFT. LAKE-850MB DELTA T`S WILL RISE
OVER 13C. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM JUST WEST OF THE LAKES WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR CELLULAR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK. A RISK
FOR WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. SURFACE LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORES TO THE LOW 50S
ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THEN ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A LIKELY
PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THESE PERIODS. COOL TEMPS ALOFT
WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO 30KFT WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME GRAUPEL TO FALL WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
ALONG THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RAISES 850MB TEMPS TO
NEAR +8C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND PROVIDE SEVERAL PERIODS OF ENHANCED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT OR ENHANCED RAIN AT TIMES.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM ITSELF WILL BE WEAK AND MAY ONLY PRODUCE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS. THE LAKES
WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
VERY IMPRESSIVE LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF 1200-1500J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS GREATER THAN 30K FEET. THE STRONG LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS ALMOST ALWAYS ORGANIZED INTO CELLULAR CONVECTION RATHER THAN A
SINGLE BAND...GIVEN HOW DEEPLY MIXED THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN SUMMER.

OFF LAKE ERIE...EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TO EXTEND OFF THE
LAKE INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT 12Z WED. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
DETACH FROM THE LAKE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH...SPREADING SHOWERS EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LOCATED OVER THE LAKE TO
NEAR PRINCE EDWARD POINT AT 12Z WED...SPREADING EAST INTO THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. GIVEN THE
QUALITY OF INSTABILITY FORECAST...THERE MAY BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITHIN THE LAKE BANDS AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT THE LAKES TO TRY TO FLIP...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING TENDING TO EVOLVE INTO
DIURNAL SHOWERS INLAND FROM THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
ANY STORM MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE COOL
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...WITH SHOWERS TENDING TO FOCUS
OVER AND EAST OF THE LAKES AGAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY LEFT FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
LESS THAN THAT OF WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING
TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE
DRY OVERNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING
SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THURSDAY
ADDING ON A FEW MORE DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 50S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING OVER 2/3 OF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL SLIGHTLY DEEPEN AND SHARPEN AS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE
DROPS THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD. AS THIS WAVE BEGINS TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST COAST AND UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO SUNDAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...A GREAT DEAL OF MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE REGARDING
THE TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH A MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY TIME FRAME WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE...RIGHT NOW LEANING TOWARDS THE FASTER SOLUTION WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT.

TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND CLIMO THROUGH THIS
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BKN/OVC VFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON
DO TO A COOL MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BENEATH A
TROUGH OF COLD AIR ALOFT. ONLY SCT/BKN VFR CLOUDS ARE FOUND TOWARD
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DUE TO THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. ISOLATED SPRINKLES MAY POP UP THIS
AFTERNOON BUT VCSH WAS REMOVED DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPING A LID ON DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...WITH LOW VFR/MVFR POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 12Z AS SOME LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOP EAST OF THE LAKES. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND LOW VFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE WATERSPOUTS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES ALONG WITH CHANCES OF LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS EACH NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 291953
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
353 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. THE COOL
PATTERN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HANGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND BUT A LINGERING TROUGH
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE
RIDGING AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL CONTINUE THE
CLOUDY SKIES FROM WESTERN NEW YORK EAST TO THE FINGER LAKES. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY MAY STILL PROVIDE SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES BUT SURFACE
RIDGING AND CAP AT 800MB/6500FT WILL LARGELY LIMIT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...MUCH DRIER
AIR ALOFT AS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL KEEP JUST SCT/BKN
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 DEGREES
BELOW LATE JULY AVERAGES. 12Z BUF RAOB MEASURED ONLY +6C AT 850MB
WHICH IS ABOUT -2SD. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES WITH MID 60S ACROSS THE COLDER SPOTS.

TONIGHT ANY ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL TAPER OFF WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. JULY LAKE EFFECT WILL AGAIN BECOME LIKELY AS BUFKIT
PROFILES INDICATE INCREASING LAKE INDUCED CAPE TO 1500 J/KG AND
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING OVER 30KFT. LAKE-850MB DELTA T`S WILL RISE
OVER 13C. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM JUST WEST OF THE LAKES WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR CELLULAR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK. A RISK
FOR WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. SURFACE LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORES TO THE LOW 50S
ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THEN ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A LIKELY
PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THESE PERIODS. COOL TEMPS ALOFT
WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO 30KFT WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME GRAUPEL TO FALL WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
ALONG THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RAISES 850MB TEMPS TO
NEAR +8C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND PROVIDE SEVERAL PERIODS OF ENHANCED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT OR ENHANCED RAIN AT TIMES.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM ITSELF WILL BE WEAK AND MAY ONLY PRODUCE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS. THE LAKES
WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
VERY IMPRESSIVE LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF 1200-1500J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS GREATER THAN 30K FEET. THE STRONG LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS ALMOST ALWAYS ORGANIZED INTO CELLULAR CONVECTION RATHER THAN A
SINGLE BAND...GIVEN HOW DEEPLY MIXED THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN SUMMER.

OFF LAKE ERIE...EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TO EXTEND OFF THE
LAKE INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT 12Z WED. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
DETACH FROM THE LAKE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH...SPREADING SHOWERS EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LOCATED OVER THE LAKE TO
NEAR PRINCE EDWARD POINT AT 12Z WED...SPREADING EAST INTO THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. GIVEN THE
QUALITY OF INSTABILITY FORECAST...THERE MAY BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITHIN THE LAKE BANDS AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT THE LAKES TO TRY TO FLIP...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING TENDING TO EVOLVE INTO
DIURNAL SHOWERS INLAND FROM THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
ANY STORM MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE COOL
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...WITH SHOWERS TENDING TO FOCUS
OVER AND EAST OF THE LAKES AGAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY LEFT FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
LESS THAN THAT OF WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING
TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE
DRY OVERNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING
SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THURSDAY
ADDING ON A FEW MORE DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 50S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING OVER 2/3 OF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL SLIGHTLY DEEPEN AND SHARPEN AS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE
DROPS THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD. AS THIS WAVE BEGINS TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST COAST AND UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO SUNDAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...A GREAT DEAL OF MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE REGARDING
THE TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH A MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY TIME FRAME WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE...RIGHT NOW LEANING TOWARDS THE FASTER SOLUTION WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT.

TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND CLIMO THROUGH THIS
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BKN/OVC VFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON
DO TO A COOL MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BENEATH A
TROUGH OF COLD AIR ALOFT. ONLY SCT/BKN VFR CLOUDS ARE FOUND TOWARD
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DUE TO THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. ISOLATED SPRINKLES MAY POP UP THIS
AFTERNOON BUT VCSH WAS REMOVED DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPING A LID ON DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...WITH LOW VFR/MVFR POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 12Z AS SOME LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOP EAST OF THE LAKES. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND LOW VFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE WATERSPOUTS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES ALONG WITH CHANCES OF LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS EACH NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 291953
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
353 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. THE COOL
PATTERN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HANGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND BUT A LINGERING TROUGH
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE
RIDGING AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL CONTINUE THE
CLOUDY SKIES FROM WESTERN NEW YORK EAST TO THE FINGER LAKES. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY MAY STILL PROVIDE SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES BUT SURFACE
RIDGING AND CAP AT 800MB/6500FT WILL LARGELY LIMIT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...MUCH DRIER
AIR ALOFT AS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL KEEP JUST SCT/BKN
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 DEGREES
BELOW LATE JULY AVERAGES. 12Z BUF RAOB MEASURED ONLY +6C AT 850MB
WHICH IS ABOUT -2SD. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES WITH MID 60S ACROSS THE COLDER SPOTS.

TONIGHT ANY ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL TAPER OFF WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. JULY LAKE EFFECT WILL AGAIN BECOME LIKELY AS BUFKIT
PROFILES INDICATE INCREASING LAKE INDUCED CAPE TO 1500 J/KG AND
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING OVER 30KFT. LAKE-850MB DELTA T`S WILL RISE
OVER 13C. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM JUST WEST OF THE LAKES WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR CELLULAR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK. A RISK
FOR WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. SURFACE LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORES TO THE LOW 50S
ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THEN ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A LIKELY
PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THESE PERIODS. COOL TEMPS ALOFT
WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO 30KFT WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME GRAUPEL TO FALL WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
ALONG THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RAISES 850MB TEMPS TO
NEAR +8C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND PROVIDE SEVERAL PERIODS OF ENHANCED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT OR ENHANCED RAIN AT TIMES.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM ITSELF WILL BE WEAK AND MAY ONLY PRODUCE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS. THE LAKES
WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
VERY IMPRESSIVE LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF 1200-1500J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS GREATER THAN 30K FEET. THE STRONG LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS ALMOST ALWAYS ORGANIZED INTO CELLULAR CONVECTION RATHER THAN A
SINGLE BAND...GIVEN HOW DEEPLY MIXED THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN SUMMER.

OFF LAKE ERIE...EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TO EXTEND OFF THE
LAKE INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT 12Z WED. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
DETACH FROM THE LAKE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH...SPREADING SHOWERS EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LOCATED OVER THE LAKE TO
NEAR PRINCE EDWARD POINT AT 12Z WED...SPREADING EAST INTO THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. GIVEN THE
QUALITY OF INSTABILITY FORECAST...THERE MAY BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITHIN THE LAKE BANDS AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT THE LAKES TO TRY TO FLIP...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING TENDING TO EVOLVE INTO
DIURNAL SHOWERS INLAND FROM THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
ANY STORM MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE COOL
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...WITH SHOWERS TENDING TO FOCUS
OVER AND EAST OF THE LAKES AGAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY LEFT FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
LESS THAN THAT OF WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING
TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE
DRY OVERNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING
SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THURSDAY
ADDING ON A FEW MORE DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 50S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING OVER 2/3 OF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL SLIGHTLY DEEPEN AND SHARPEN AS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE
DROPS THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD. AS THIS WAVE BEGINS TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST COAST AND UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO SUNDAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...A GREAT DEAL OF MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE REGARDING
THE TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH A MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY TIME FRAME WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE...RIGHT NOW LEANING TOWARDS THE FASTER SOLUTION WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT.

TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND CLIMO THROUGH THIS
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BKN/OVC VFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON
DO TO A COOL MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BENEATH A
TROUGH OF COLD AIR ALOFT. ONLY SCT/BKN VFR CLOUDS ARE FOUND TOWARD
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DUE TO THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. ISOLATED SPRINKLES MAY POP UP THIS
AFTERNOON BUT VCSH WAS REMOVED DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPING A LID ON DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...WITH LOW VFR/MVFR POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 12Z AS SOME LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOP EAST OF THE LAKES. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND LOW VFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE WATERSPOUTS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES ALONG WITH CHANCES OF LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS EACH NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 291953
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
353 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. THE COOL
PATTERN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HANGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND BUT A LINGERING TROUGH
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE
RIDGING AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL CONTINUE THE
CLOUDY SKIES FROM WESTERN NEW YORK EAST TO THE FINGER LAKES. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY MAY STILL PROVIDE SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES BUT SURFACE
RIDGING AND CAP AT 800MB/6500FT WILL LARGELY LIMIT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...MUCH DRIER
AIR ALOFT AS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL KEEP JUST SCT/BKN
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 DEGREES
BELOW LATE JULY AVERAGES. 12Z BUF RAOB MEASURED ONLY +6C AT 850MB
WHICH IS ABOUT -2SD. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES WITH MID 60S ACROSS THE COLDER SPOTS.

TONIGHT ANY ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL TAPER OFF WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. JULY LAKE EFFECT WILL AGAIN BECOME LIKELY AS BUFKIT
PROFILES INDICATE INCREASING LAKE INDUCED CAPE TO 1500 J/KG AND
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING OVER 30KFT. LAKE-850MB DELTA T`S WILL RISE
OVER 13C. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM JUST WEST OF THE LAKES WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR CELLULAR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK. A RISK
FOR WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. SURFACE LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORES TO THE LOW 50S
ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THEN ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A LIKELY
PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THESE PERIODS. COOL TEMPS ALOFT
WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO 30KFT WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME GRAUPEL TO FALL WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
ALONG THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RAISES 850MB TEMPS TO
NEAR +8C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND PROVIDE SEVERAL PERIODS OF ENHANCED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT OR ENHANCED RAIN AT TIMES.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM ITSELF WILL BE WEAK AND MAY ONLY PRODUCE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS. THE LAKES
WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
VERY IMPRESSIVE LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF 1200-1500J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS GREATER THAN 30K FEET. THE STRONG LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS ALMOST ALWAYS ORGANIZED INTO CELLULAR CONVECTION RATHER THAN A
SINGLE BAND...GIVEN HOW DEEPLY MIXED THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN SUMMER.

OFF LAKE ERIE...EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TO EXTEND OFF THE
LAKE INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT 12Z WED. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
DETACH FROM THE LAKE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH...SPREADING SHOWERS EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LOCATED OVER THE LAKE TO
NEAR PRINCE EDWARD POINT AT 12Z WED...SPREADING EAST INTO THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. GIVEN THE
QUALITY OF INSTABILITY FORECAST...THERE MAY BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITHIN THE LAKE BANDS AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT THE LAKES TO TRY TO FLIP...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING TENDING TO EVOLVE INTO
DIURNAL SHOWERS INLAND FROM THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
ANY STORM MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE COOL
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...WITH SHOWERS TENDING TO FOCUS
OVER AND EAST OF THE LAKES AGAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY LEFT FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
LESS THAN THAT OF WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING
TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE
DRY OVERNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING
SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THURSDAY
ADDING ON A FEW MORE DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 50S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING OVER 2/3 OF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL SLIGHTLY DEEPEN AND SHARPEN AS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE
DROPS THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD. AS THIS WAVE BEGINS TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST COAST AND UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO SUNDAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...A GREAT DEAL OF MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE REGARDING
THE TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH A MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY TIME FRAME WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE...RIGHT NOW LEANING TOWARDS THE FASTER SOLUTION WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT.

TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND CLIMO THROUGH THIS
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BKN/OVC VFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON
DO TO A COOL MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BENEATH A
TROUGH OF COLD AIR ALOFT. ONLY SCT/BKN VFR CLOUDS ARE FOUND TOWARD
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DUE TO THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. ISOLATED SPRINKLES MAY POP UP THIS
AFTERNOON BUT VCSH WAS REMOVED DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPING A LID ON DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...WITH LOW VFR/MVFR POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 12Z AS SOME LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOP EAST OF THE LAKES. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND LOW VFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE WATERSPOUTS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES ALONG WITH CHANCES OF LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS EACH NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 291944
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
344 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. THE COOL
PATTERN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HANGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND BUT A LINGERING TROUGH
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE
RIDGING AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL CONTINUE THE
CLOUDY SKIES FROM WESTERN NEW YORK EAST TO THE FINGER LAKES. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY MAY STILL PROVIDE SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES BUT SURFACE
RIDGING AND CAP AT 800MB/6500FT WILL LARGELY LIMIT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...MUCH DRIER
AIR ALOFT AS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL KEEP JUST SCT/BKN
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 DEGREES
BELOW LATE JULY AVERAGES. 12Z BUF RAOB MEASURED ONLY +6C AT 850MB
WHICH IS ABOUT -2SD. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES WITH MID 60S ACROSS THE COLDER SPOTS.

TONIGHT ANY ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL TAPER OFF WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. JULY LAKE EFFECT WILL AGAIN BECOME LIKELY AS BUFKIT
PROFILES INDICATE INCREASING LAKE INDUCED CAPE TO 1500 J/KG AND
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING OVER 30KFT. LAKE-850MB DELTA T`S WILL RISE
OVER 13C. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM JUST WEST OF THE LAKES WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR CELLULAR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK. A RISK
FOR WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. SURFACE LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORES TO THE LOW 50S
ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THEN ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A LIKELY
PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THESE PERIODS. COOL TEMPS ALOFT
WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO 30KFT WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME GRAUPEL TO FALL WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
ALONG THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RAISES 850MB TEMPS TO
NEAR +8C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND PROVIDE SEVERAL PERIODS OF ENHANCED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT OR ENHANCED RAIN AT TIMES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...WITH SHOWERS TENDING TO
FOCUS OVER AND EAST OF THE LAKES AGAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY LEFT FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD
BE LESS THAN THAT OF WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING FOR
SOME DRYING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. THERE MAY
STILL BE A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THURSDAY
ADDING ON A FEW MORE DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 50S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY ENOUGH INTO
QUEBEC ON FRIDAY TO BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE TROUGH RELOADS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT DIGGING TROUGH WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND APPALACHIANS...REACHING OUR
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SAME BASIC
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY MONDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS FASTER IN BRINGING
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THIS SYSTEM BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKES ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS
SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO TYPICAL MID SUMMER LEVELS FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BKN/OVC VFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON
DO TO A COOL MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BENEATH A
TROUGH OF COLD AIR ALOFT. ONLY SCT/BKN VFR CLOUDS ARE FOUND TOWARD
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DUE TO THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. ISOLATED SPRINKLES MAY POP UP THIS
AFTERNOON BUT VCSH WAS REMOVED DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPING A LID ON DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...WITH LOW VFR/MVFR POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 12Z AS SOME LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOP EAST OF THE LAKES. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND LOW VFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE WATERSPOUTS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES ALONG WITH CHANCES OF LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS EACH NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 291944
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
344 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. THE COOL
PATTERN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HANGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND BUT A LINGERING TROUGH
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE
RIDGING AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL CONTINUE THE
CLOUDY SKIES FROM WESTERN NEW YORK EAST TO THE FINGER LAKES. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY MAY STILL PROVIDE SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES BUT SURFACE
RIDGING AND CAP AT 800MB/6500FT WILL LARGELY LIMIT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...MUCH DRIER
AIR ALOFT AS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL KEEP JUST SCT/BKN
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 DEGREES
BELOW LATE JULY AVERAGES. 12Z BUF RAOB MEASURED ONLY +6C AT 850MB
WHICH IS ABOUT -2SD. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES WITH MID 60S ACROSS THE COLDER SPOTS.

TONIGHT ANY ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL TAPER OFF WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. JULY LAKE EFFECT WILL AGAIN BECOME LIKELY AS BUFKIT
PROFILES INDICATE INCREASING LAKE INDUCED CAPE TO 1500 J/KG AND
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING OVER 30KFT. LAKE-850MB DELTA T`S WILL RISE
OVER 13C. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM JUST WEST OF THE LAKES WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR CELLULAR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK. A RISK
FOR WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. SURFACE LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORES TO THE LOW 50S
ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THEN ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A LIKELY
PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THESE PERIODS. COOL TEMPS ALOFT
WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO 30KFT WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME GRAUPEL TO FALL WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
ALONG THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RAISES 850MB TEMPS TO
NEAR +8C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND PROVIDE SEVERAL PERIODS OF ENHANCED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT OR ENHANCED RAIN AT TIMES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...WITH SHOWERS TENDING TO
FOCUS OVER AND EAST OF THE LAKES AGAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY LEFT FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD
BE LESS THAN THAT OF WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING FOR
SOME DRYING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. THERE MAY
STILL BE A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THURSDAY
ADDING ON A FEW MORE DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 50S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY ENOUGH INTO
QUEBEC ON FRIDAY TO BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE TROUGH RELOADS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT DIGGING TROUGH WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND APPALACHIANS...REACHING OUR
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SAME BASIC
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY MONDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS FASTER IN BRINGING
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THIS SYSTEM BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKES ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS
SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO TYPICAL MID SUMMER LEVELS FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BKN/OVC VFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON
DO TO A COOL MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BENEATH A
TROUGH OF COLD AIR ALOFT. ONLY SCT/BKN VFR CLOUDS ARE FOUND TOWARD
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DUE TO THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. ISOLATED SPRINKLES MAY POP UP THIS
AFTERNOON BUT VCSH WAS REMOVED DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPING A LID ON DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...WITH LOW VFR/MVFR POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 12Z AS SOME LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOP EAST OF THE LAKES. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND LOW VFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE WATERSPOUTS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES ALONG WITH CHANCES OF LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS EACH NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 291944
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
344 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. THE COOL
PATTERN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HANGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND BUT A LINGERING TROUGH
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE
RIDGING AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL CONTINUE THE
CLOUDY SKIES FROM WESTERN NEW YORK EAST TO THE FINGER LAKES. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY MAY STILL PROVIDE SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES BUT SURFACE
RIDGING AND CAP AT 800MB/6500FT WILL LARGELY LIMIT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...MUCH DRIER
AIR ALOFT AS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL KEEP JUST SCT/BKN
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 DEGREES
BELOW LATE JULY AVERAGES. 12Z BUF RAOB MEASURED ONLY +6C AT 850MB
WHICH IS ABOUT -2SD. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES WITH MID 60S ACROSS THE COLDER SPOTS.

TONIGHT ANY ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL TAPER OFF WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. JULY LAKE EFFECT WILL AGAIN BECOME LIKELY AS BUFKIT
PROFILES INDICATE INCREASING LAKE INDUCED CAPE TO 1500 J/KG AND
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING OVER 30KFT. LAKE-850MB DELTA T`S WILL RISE
OVER 13C. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM JUST WEST OF THE LAKES WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR CELLULAR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK. A RISK
FOR WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. SURFACE LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORES TO THE LOW 50S
ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THEN ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A LIKELY
PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THESE PERIODS. COOL TEMPS ALOFT
WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO 30KFT WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME GRAUPEL TO FALL WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
ALONG THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RAISES 850MB TEMPS TO
NEAR +8C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND PROVIDE SEVERAL PERIODS OF ENHANCED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT OR ENHANCED RAIN AT TIMES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...WITH SHOWERS TENDING TO
FOCUS OVER AND EAST OF THE LAKES AGAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY LEFT FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD
BE LESS THAN THAT OF WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING FOR
SOME DRYING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. THERE MAY
STILL BE A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THURSDAY
ADDING ON A FEW MORE DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 50S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY ENOUGH INTO
QUEBEC ON FRIDAY TO BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE TROUGH RELOADS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT DIGGING TROUGH WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND APPALACHIANS...REACHING OUR
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SAME BASIC
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY MONDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS FASTER IN BRINGING
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THIS SYSTEM BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKES ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS
SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO TYPICAL MID SUMMER LEVELS FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BKN/OVC VFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON
DO TO A COOL MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BENEATH A
TROUGH OF COLD AIR ALOFT. ONLY SCT/BKN VFR CLOUDS ARE FOUND TOWARD
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DUE TO THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. ISOLATED SPRINKLES MAY POP UP THIS
AFTERNOON BUT VCSH WAS REMOVED DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPING A LID ON DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...WITH LOW VFR/MVFR POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 12Z AS SOME LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOP EAST OF THE LAKES. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND LOW VFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE WATERSPOUTS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES ALONG WITH CHANCES OF LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS EACH NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 291944
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
344 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. THE COOL
PATTERN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HANGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND BUT A LINGERING TROUGH
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE
RIDGING AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL CONTINUE THE
CLOUDY SKIES FROM WESTERN NEW YORK EAST TO THE FINGER LAKES. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY MAY STILL PROVIDE SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES BUT SURFACE
RIDGING AND CAP AT 800MB/6500FT WILL LARGELY LIMIT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...MUCH DRIER
AIR ALOFT AS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL KEEP JUST SCT/BKN
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 DEGREES
BELOW LATE JULY AVERAGES. 12Z BUF RAOB MEASURED ONLY +6C AT 850MB
WHICH IS ABOUT -2SD. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES WITH MID 60S ACROSS THE COLDER SPOTS.

TONIGHT ANY ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL TAPER OFF WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. JULY LAKE EFFECT WILL AGAIN BECOME LIKELY AS BUFKIT
PROFILES INDICATE INCREASING LAKE INDUCED CAPE TO 1500 J/KG AND
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING OVER 30KFT. LAKE-850MB DELTA T`S WILL RISE
OVER 13C. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM JUST WEST OF THE LAKES WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR CELLULAR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK. A RISK
FOR WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. SURFACE LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORES TO THE LOW 50S
ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THEN ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A LIKELY
PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THESE PERIODS. COOL TEMPS ALOFT
WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO 30KFT WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME GRAUPEL TO FALL WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
ALONG THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RAISES 850MB TEMPS TO
NEAR +8C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND PROVIDE SEVERAL PERIODS OF ENHANCED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT OR ENHANCED RAIN AT TIMES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...WITH SHOWERS TENDING TO
FOCUS OVER AND EAST OF THE LAKES AGAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY LEFT FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD
BE LESS THAN THAT OF WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING FOR
SOME DRYING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. THERE MAY
STILL BE A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THURSDAY
ADDING ON A FEW MORE DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 50S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY ENOUGH INTO
QUEBEC ON FRIDAY TO BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE TROUGH RELOADS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT DIGGING TROUGH WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND APPALACHIANS...REACHING OUR
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SAME BASIC
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY MONDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS FASTER IN BRINGING
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THIS SYSTEM BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKES ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS
SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO TYPICAL MID SUMMER LEVELS FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BKN/OVC VFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON
DO TO A COOL MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BENEATH A
TROUGH OF COLD AIR ALOFT. ONLY SCT/BKN VFR CLOUDS ARE FOUND TOWARD
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DUE TO THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. ISOLATED SPRINKLES MAY POP UP THIS
AFTERNOON BUT VCSH WAS REMOVED DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPING A LID ON DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...WITH LOW VFR/MVFR POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 12Z AS SOME LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOP EAST OF THE LAKES. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND LOW VFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE WATERSPOUTS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES ALONG WITH CHANCES OF LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS EACH NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 291926
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRETTY QUIET AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS WE REMAIN UNDER A DRY CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE
JAMES BAY REGION. PLENTY OF CLOUDS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING THOUGH NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEY LOCALES THOUGH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH MODEST RADIATIONAL COOLING AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS ALOFT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN VERMONT...AND
LOW/MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER







000
FXUS61 KBTV 291926
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRETTY QUIET AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS WE REMAIN UNDER A DRY CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE
JAMES BAY REGION. PLENTY OF CLOUDS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING THOUGH NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEY LOCALES THOUGH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH MODEST RADIATIONAL COOLING AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS ALOFT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN VERMONT...AND
LOW/MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER
THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY
WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN
ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBGM 291921
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
321 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
240 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU REFUSED TO GIVE UP THE GHOST TODAY. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR RAPID CLEARING BETWEEN
6 PM AND SUNSET.

GIVEN AMPLE CLEARING OVERNIGHT, LIGHT WINDS, AND MOIST GROUND,
RIVER VALLEY FOG IS NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 2 AM. `

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S.

1005 AM UPDATE...
WE HAVE LINGERED THE CLOUDS LONGER WITHIN THE SKY GRIDS THIS
MORNING, AND SUPPRESSED MORNING TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. STRATOCU
AREA EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE TOWARD I-81 CORRIDOR IS PROVING TO
BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK. THE MODEL PROJECTED BURN OFF HAS NOT
OCCURRED TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN, WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUING
TO SPIN OVER LOWER CANADA WITH AXIS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY REDUCE IN AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE INTERIM, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON DUE TO COLD CORE ALOFT AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER
70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 PM TUE UPDATE... THE LARGE-SCALE PATN OF A WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PD...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LOSE
SOME AMPLITUDE/RETROGRADE A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WX...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHWRS/TSTMS ARE FORESEEN
EACH DAY...PERHAPS MOST NUMEROUS FRI AND SAT AFTERNOONS...WHEN A
COASTAL SFC BNDRY BACKS SLOWLY WWD...AND ALSO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CHC/SCTD POPS WILL BE
EMPLOYED FOR NOW...GIVEN THE CUSTOMARY UNCERTAINTIES AT THESE TIME
RANGES.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY AUG...WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUE UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
FCST PD...WITH A SCT-BKN CU FIELD THIS AFTN...AND AGN LATE WED
MRNG INTO THE AFTN. IN BETWEEN...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TNT.

THE USUAL EXCEPTION IS KELM...WHERE VLY FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED (STARTING 06-08Z). IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE FORESEEN
HERE THROUGH 12-13Z WED...BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ






000
FXUS61 KBGM 291921
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
321 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
240 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU REFUSED TO GIVE UP THE GHOST TODAY. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR RAPID CLEARING BETWEEN
6 PM AND SUNSET.

GIVEN AMPLE CLEARING OVERNIGHT, LIGHT WINDS, AND MOIST GROUND,
RIVER VALLEY FOG IS NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 2 AM. `

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S.

1005 AM UPDATE...
WE HAVE LINGERED THE CLOUDS LONGER WITHIN THE SKY GRIDS THIS
MORNING, AND SUPPRESSED MORNING TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. STRATOCU
AREA EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE TOWARD I-81 CORRIDOR IS PROVING TO
BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK. THE MODEL PROJECTED BURN OFF HAS NOT
OCCURRED TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN, WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUING
TO SPIN OVER LOWER CANADA WITH AXIS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY REDUCE IN AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE INTERIM, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON DUE TO COLD CORE ALOFT AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER
70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 PM TUE UPDATE... THE LARGE-SCALE PATN OF A WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PD...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LOSE
SOME AMPLITUDE/RETROGRADE A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WX...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHWRS/TSTMS ARE FORESEEN
EACH DAY...PERHAPS MOST NUMEROUS FRI AND SAT AFTERNOONS...WHEN A
COASTAL SFC BNDRY BACKS SLOWLY WWD...AND ALSO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CHC/SCTD POPS WILL BE
EMPLOYED FOR NOW...GIVEN THE CUSTOMARY UNCERTAINTIES AT THESE TIME
RANGES.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY AUG...WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUE UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
FCST PD...WITH A SCT-BKN CU FIELD THIS AFTN...AND AGN LATE WED
MRNG INTO THE AFTN. IN BETWEEN...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TNT.

THE USUAL EXCEPTION IS KELM...WHERE VLY FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED (STARTING 06-08Z). IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE FORESEEN
HERE THROUGH 12-13Z WED...BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ






000
FXUS61 KBGM 291921
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
321 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
240 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU REFUSED TO GIVE UP THE GHOST TODAY. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR RAPID CLEARING BETWEEN
6 PM AND SUNSET.

GIVEN AMPLE CLEARING OVERNIGHT, LIGHT WINDS, AND MOIST GROUND,
RIVER VALLEY FOG IS NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 2 AM. `

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S.

1005 AM UPDATE...
WE HAVE LINGERED THE CLOUDS LONGER WITHIN THE SKY GRIDS THIS
MORNING, AND SUPPRESSED MORNING TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. STRATOCU
AREA EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE TOWARD I-81 CORRIDOR IS PROVING TO
BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK. THE MODEL PROJECTED BURN OFF HAS NOT
OCCURRED TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN, WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUING
TO SPIN OVER LOWER CANADA WITH AXIS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY REDUCE IN AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE INTERIM, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON DUE TO COLD CORE ALOFT AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER
70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 PM TUE UPDATE... THE LARGE-SCALE PATN OF A WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PD...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LOSE
SOME AMPLITUDE/RETROGRADE A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WX...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHWRS/TSTMS ARE FORESEEN
EACH DAY...PERHAPS MOST NUMEROUS FRI AND SAT AFTERNOONS...WHEN A
COASTAL SFC BNDRY BACKS SLOWLY WWD...AND ALSO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CHC/SCTD POPS WILL BE
EMPLOYED FOR NOW...GIVEN THE CUSTOMARY UNCERTAINTIES AT THESE TIME
RANGES.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY AUG...WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUE UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
FCST PD...WITH A SCT-BKN CU FIELD THIS AFTN...AND AGN LATE WED
MRNG INTO THE AFTN. IN BETWEEN...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TNT.

THE USUAL EXCEPTION IS KELM...WHERE VLY FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED (STARTING 06-08Z). IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE FORESEEN
HERE THROUGH 12-13Z WED...BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ






000
FXUS61 KBGM 291921
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
321 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
240 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU REFUSED TO GIVE UP THE GHOST TODAY. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR RAPID CLEARING BETWEEN
6 PM AND SUNSET.

GIVEN AMPLE CLEARING OVERNIGHT, LIGHT WINDS, AND MOIST GROUND,
RIVER VALLEY FOG IS NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 2 AM. `

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S.

1005 AM UPDATE...
WE HAVE LINGERED THE CLOUDS LONGER WITHIN THE SKY GRIDS THIS
MORNING, AND SUPPRESSED MORNING TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. STRATOCU
AREA EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE TOWARD I-81 CORRIDOR IS PROVING TO
BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK. THE MODEL PROJECTED BURN OFF HAS NOT
OCCURRED TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN, WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUING
TO SPIN OVER LOWER CANADA WITH AXIS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY REDUCE IN AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE INTERIM, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON DUE TO COLD CORE ALOFT AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER
70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 PM TUE UPDATE... THE LARGE-SCALE PATN OF A WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PD...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LOSE
SOME AMPLITUDE/RETROGRADE A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WX...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHWRS/TSTMS ARE FORESEEN
EACH DAY...PERHAPS MOST NUMEROUS FRI AND SAT AFTERNOONS...WHEN A
COASTAL SFC BNDRY BACKS SLOWLY WWD...AND ALSO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CHC/SCTD POPS WILL BE
EMPLOYED FOR NOW...GIVEN THE CUSTOMARY UNCERTAINTIES AT THESE TIME
RANGES.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY AUG...WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUE UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
FCST PD...WITH A SCT-BKN CU FIELD THIS AFTN...AND AGN LATE WED
MRNG INTO THE AFTN. IN BETWEEN...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TNT.

THE USUAL EXCEPTION IS KELM...WHERE VLY FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED (STARTING 06-08Z). IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE FORESEEN
HERE THROUGH 12-13Z WED...BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ






000
FXUS61 KBTV 291916
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
316 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT
SHAPE WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND PARTY CLOUDY/SUNNY SKIES. CURRENT TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S AND LIKELY WILL ONLY
RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN RATHER STEADY BEFORE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE TOWARDS
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 291916
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
316 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT
SHAPE WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND PARTY CLOUDY/SUNNY SKIES. CURRENT TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S AND LIKELY WILL ONLY
RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN RATHER STEADY BEFORE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE TOWARDS
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW
ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME
HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN
10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER
VALLEYS. LOWS WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBGM 291845
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
245 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
240 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU REFUSED TO GIVE UP THE GHOST TODAY. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR RAPID CLEARING BETWEEN
6 PM AND SUNSET.

GIVEN AMPLE CLEARING OVERNIGHT, LIGHT WINDS, AND MOIST GROUND,
RIVER VALLEY FOG IS NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 2 AM. `

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S.

1005 AM UPDATE...
WE HAVE LINGERED THE CLOUDS LONGER WITHIN THE SKY GRIDS THIS
MORNING, AND SUPPRESSED MORNING TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. STRATOCU
AREA EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE TOWARD I-81 CORRIDOR IS PROVING TO
BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK. THE MODEL PROJECTED BURN OFF HAS NOT
OCCURRED TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN, WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUING
TO SPIN OVER LOWER CANADA WITH AXIS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY REDUCE IN AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE INTERIM, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON DUE TO COLD CORE ALOFT AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER
70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUE UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
FCST PD...WITH A SCT-BKN CU FIELD THIS AFTN...AND AGN LATE WED
MRNG INTO THE AFTN. IN BETWEEN...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TNT.

THE USUAL EXCEPTION IS KELM...WHERE VLY FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED (STARTING 06-08Z). IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE FORESEEN
HERE THROUGH 12-13Z WED...BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MLJ






000
FXUS61 KBGM 291845
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
245 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
240 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU REFUSED TO GIVE UP THE GHOST TODAY. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR RAPID CLEARING BETWEEN
6 PM AND SUNSET.

GIVEN AMPLE CLEARING OVERNIGHT, LIGHT WINDS, AND MOIST GROUND,
RIVER VALLEY FOG IS NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 2 AM. `

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S.

1005 AM UPDATE...
WE HAVE LINGERED THE CLOUDS LONGER WITHIN THE SKY GRIDS THIS
MORNING, AND SUPPRESSED MORNING TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. STRATOCU
AREA EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE TOWARD I-81 CORRIDOR IS PROVING TO
BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK. THE MODEL PROJECTED BURN OFF HAS NOT
OCCURRED TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN, WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUING
TO SPIN OVER LOWER CANADA WITH AXIS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY REDUCE IN AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE INTERIM, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON DUE TO COLD CORE ALOFT AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER
70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUE UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
FCST PD...WITH A SCT-BKN CU FIELD THIS AFTN...AND AGN LATE WED
MRNG INTO THE AFTN. IN BETWEEN...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TNT.

THE USUAL EXCEPTION IS KELM...WHERE VLY FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED (STARTING 06-08Z). IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE FORESEEN
HERE THROUGH 12-13Z WED...BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MLJ







000
FXUS61 KBUF 291827
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
227 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS COOL
PATTERN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HANGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND BUT A LINGERING TROUGH
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE
RIDGING AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL CONTINUE THE
CLOUDY SKIES FROM WESTERN NEW YORK EAST TO THE FINGER LAKES. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY MAY STILL PROVIDE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT SURFACE
RIDGING AND CAP AT 800MB/6500FT WILL LARGELY LIMIT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO...MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT AS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WILL KEEP JUST SCT/BKN FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW LATE JULY AVERAGES. 12Z BUF
RAOB MEASURES ONLY +6C AT 850MB WHICH IS ABOUT -2SD. HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH MID 60S ACROSS THE
COLDER SPOTS.

TONIGHT ANY DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. JULY LAKE EFFECT WILL AGAIN BECOME LIKELY AS BUFKIT
PROFILES INDICATE INCREASING LAKE INDUCED CAPE TO 1500 J/KG AND
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING OVER 30KFT. LAKE-850MB DELTA T`S WILL RISE
OVER 13C. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH A FORECASTED SURFACE
TROUGH AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR CELLULAR LAKE ENHANCED
RAIN TO DEVELOP FIRST OFF LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. A RISK FOR
WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. SURFACE TEMPS WILL AGAIN BOTTOM
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND PROVIDE SEVERAL PERIODS OF ENHANCED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT OR ENHANCED RAIN AT TIMES.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM ITSELF WILL BE WEAK AND MAY ONLY PRODUCE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS. THE LAKES
WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
VERY IMPRESSIVE LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF 1200-1500J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS GREATER THAN 30K FEET. THE STRONG LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS ALMOST ALWAYS ORGANIZED INTO CELLULAR CONVECTION RATHER THAN A
SINGLE BAND...GIVEN HOW DEEPLY MIXED THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN SUMMER.

OFF LAKE ERIE...EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TO EXTEND OFF THE
LAKE INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT 12Z WED. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
DETACH FROM THE LAKE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH...SPREADING SHOWERS EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LOCATED OVER THE LAKE TO
NEAR PRINCE EDWARD POINT AT 12Z WED...SPREADING EAST INTO THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. GIVEN THE
QUALITY OF INSTABILITY FORECAST...THERE MAY BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITHIN THE LAKE BANDS AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT THE LAKES TO TRY TO FLIP...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING TENDING TO EVOLVE INTO
DIURNAL SHOWERS INLAND FROM THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
ANY STORM MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE COOL
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...WITH SHOWERS TENDING TO FOCUS
OVER AND EAST OF THE LAKES AGAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY LEFT FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
LESS THAN THAT OF WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING
TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE
DRY OVERNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING
SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THURSDAY
ADDING ON A FEW MORE DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 50S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY ENOUGH INTO
QUEBEC ON FRIDAY TO BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE TROUGH RELOADS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT DIGGING TROUGH WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND APPALACHIANS...REACHING OUR
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SAME BASIC
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY MONDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS FASTER IN BRINGING
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THIS SYSTEM BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKES ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS
SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO TYPICAL MID SUMMER LEVELS FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BKN/OVC VFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY DO TO A
COOL MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BENEATH A TROUGH OF
COLD AIR ALOFT. ONLY SCT/BKN VFR CLOUDS ARE FOUND TOWARD THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION DUE TO THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY POP UP
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KBUF/KIAG/KJHW WHERE
VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH LOW
VFR/MVFR POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 12Z AS SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DEVELOP EAST OF THE LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND LOW VFR
CIGS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAKER FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BRING A CHANCE WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
BOTH LAKES ALONG WITH CHANCES OF LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 291827
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
227 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS COOL
PATTERN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HANGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND BUT A LINGERING TROUGH
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE
RIDGING AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL CONTINUE THE
CLOUDY SKIES FROM WESTERN NEW YORK EAST TO THE FINGER LAKES. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY MAY STILL PROVIDE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT SURFACE
RIDGING AND CAP AT 800MB/6500FT WILL LARGELY LIMIT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO...MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT AS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WILL KEEP JUST SCT/BKN FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW LATE JULY AVERAGES. 12Z BUF
RAOB MEASURES ONLY +6C AT 850MB WHICH IS ABOUT -2SD. HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH MID 60S ACROSS THE
COLDER SPOTS.

TONIGHT ANY DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. JULY LAKE EFFECT WILL AGAIN BECOME LIKELY AS BUFKIT
PROFILES INDICATE INCREASING LAKE INDUCED CAPE TO 1500 J/KG AND
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING OVER 30KFT. LAKE-850MB DELTA T`S WILL RISE
OVER 13C. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH A FORECASTED SURFACE
TROUGH AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR CELLULAR LAKE ENHANCED
RAIN TO DEVELOP FIRST OFF LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. A RISK FOR
WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. SURFACE TEMPS WILL AGAIN BOTTOM
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND PROVIDE SEVERAL PERIODS OF ENHANCED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT OR ENHANCED RAIN AT TIMES.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM ITSELF WILL BE WEAK AND MAY ONLY PRODUCE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS. THE LAKES
WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
VERY IMPRESSIVE LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF 1200-1500J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS GREATER THAN 30K FEET. THE STRONG LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS ALMOST ALWAYS ORGANIZED INTO CELLULAR CONVECTION RATHER THAN A
SINGLE BAND...GIVEN HOW DEEPLY MIXED THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN SUMMER.

OFF LAKE ERIE...EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TO EXTEND OFF THE
LAKE INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT 12Z WED. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
DETACH FROM THE LAKE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH...SPREADING SHOWERS EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LOCATED OVER THE LAKE TO
NEAR PRINCE EDWARD POINT AT 12Z WED...SPREADING EAST INTO THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. GIVEN THE
QUALITY OF INSTABILITY FORECAST...THERE MAY BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITHIN THE LAKE BANDS AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT THE LAKES TO TRY TO FLIP...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING TENDING TO EVOLVE INTO
DIURNAL SHOWERS INLAND FROM THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
ANY STORM MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE COOL
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...WITH SHOWERS TENDING TO FOCUS
OVER AND EAST OF THE LAKES AGAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY LEFT FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
LESS THAN THAT OF WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING
TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE
DRY OVERNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING
SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THURSDAY
ADDING ON A FEW MORE DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 50S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY ENOUGH INTO
QUEBEC ON FRIDAY TO BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE TROUGH RELOADS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT DIGGING TROUGH WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND APPALACHIANS...REACHING OUR
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SAME BASIC
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY MONDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS FASTER IN BRINGING
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THIS SYSTEM BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKES ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS
SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO TYPICAL MID SUMMER LEVELS FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BKN/OVC VFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY DO TO A
COOL MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BENEATH A TROUGH OF
COLD AIR ALOFT. ONLY SCT/BKN VFR CLOUDS ARE FOUND TOWARD THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION DUE TO THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY POP UP
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KBUF/KIAG/KJHW WHERE
VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH LOW
VFR/MVFR POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 12Z AS SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DEVELOP EAST OF THE LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND LOW VFR
CIGS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAKER FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BRING A CHANCE WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
BOTH LAKES ALONG WITH CHANCES OF LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 291733
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
133 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT WILL BE NEAR BY OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY AROUND
60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN...SO
HAVE KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/WILL
SHORTLY HIT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
MAINLY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON - WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVELS A LIMITING FACTOR.

THE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN A MID LEVEL INVERSION THE 4-7000 FT
RANGE...SO DID NOT GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 775 HPA PER BUFKIT AND 12Z
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM AND RAP 2-METER TEMPERATURES...6Z MAV GUIDANCE
AND 00Z MET GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE SHADED CLOSER TO
MET GUIDANCE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WED...BUT THE TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING
MOISTURE APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING
TO HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
CLOUD COVER ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABOVE
CONVECTIVE. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION
WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER
HIGH WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE
COAST...WHILE THE INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG IT AND/OR TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM
ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER
ON TIMING. AT THIS TIME DECIDED TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH
INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME WITH SOME DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING AND AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEA BREEZE IS CURRENTLY HOVERING ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS JUST
SOUTH OF THE COAST...AND WITH NW FLOW AT 10-12 KT...SEA BREEZE
HAS BEEN SLOW TO TRACK INLAND. WILL BACK WINDS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS TO THE SW AT 19-20Z...AND THEN TO THE S FROM 20-22Z. FOR
INLAND TERMINALS...WINDS WILL BACK TO A W-SW FLOW BY 22Z.

VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 03-05Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS TO 200-220 MAG
BY 21Z. TIMING COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KLGA FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS TO AROUND 200
MAG BY 21Z. TIMING COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KEWR FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OCNL GUSTS TO 17 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z.

KTEB FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS TO 250-270 MAG
BY 21Z. TIMING COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AT KSWF IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN









000
FXUS61 KOKX 291733
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
133 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT WILL BE NEAR BY OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY AROUND
60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN...SO
HAVE KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/WILL
SHORTLY HIT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
MAINLY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON - WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVELS A LIMITING FACTOR.

THE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN A MID LEVEL INVERSION THE 4-7000 FT
RANGE...SO DID NOT GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 775 HPA PER BUFKIT AND 12Z
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM AND RAP 2-METER TEMPERATURES...6Z MAV GUIDANCE
AND 00Z MET GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE SHADED CLOSER TO
MET GUIDANCE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WED...BUT THE TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING
MOISTURE APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING
TO HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
CLOUD COVER ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABOVE
CONVECTIVE. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION
WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER
HIGH WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE
COAST...WHILE THE INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG IT AND/OR TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM
ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER
ON TIMING. AT THIS TIME DECIDED TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH
INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME WITH SOME DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING AND AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEA BREEZE IS CURRENTLY HOVERING ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS JUST
SOUTH OF THE COAST...AND WITH NW FLOW AT 10-12 KT...SEA BREEZE
HAS BEEN SLOW TO TRACK INLAND. WILL BACK WINDS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS TO THE SW AT 19-20Z...AND THEN TO THE S FROM 20-22Z. FOR
INLAND TERMINALS...WINDS WILL BACK TO A W-SW FLOW BY 22Z.

VRB WINDS 5 KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 03-05Z THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS TO 200-220 MAG
BY 21Z. TIMING COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KLGA FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS TO AROUND 200
MAG BY 21Z. TIMING COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KEWR FORECASTER COMMENTS: WINDS 270-290 MAG THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OCNL GUSTS TO 17 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z.

KTEB FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FORECASTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FORECASTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS TO 250-270 MAG
BY 21Z. TIMING COULD BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AT KSWF IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN










000
FXUS61 KBTV 291718
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
118 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT
SHAPE WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND PARTY CLOUDY/SUNNY SKIES. CURRENT TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S AND LIKELY WILL ONLY
RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN RATHER STEADY BEFORE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE TOWARDS
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 291718
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
118 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT
SHAPE WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND PARTY CLOUDY/SUNNY SKIES. CURRENT TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S AND LIKELY WILL ONLY
RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN RATHER STEADY BEFORE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE TOWARDS
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 291718
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
118 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT
SHAPE WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND PARTY CLOUDY/SUNNY SKIES. CURRENT TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S AND LIKELY WILL ONLY
RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN RATHER STEADY BEFORE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE TOWARDS
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 291718
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
118 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT
SHAPE WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND PARTY CLOUDY/SUNNY SKIES. CURRENT TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S AND LIKELY WILL ONLY
RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN RATHER STEADY BEFORE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE TOWARDS
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG
AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS
OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT
100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE
AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER
LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET
AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS
AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBGM 291716
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
116 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS
PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1005 AM UPDATE...
WE HAVE LINGERED THE CLOUDS LONGER WITHIN THE SKY GRIDS THIS
MORNING, AND SUPPRESSED MORNING TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. STRATOCU
AREA EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE TOWARD I-81 CORRIDOR IS PROVING TO
BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK. THE MODEL PROJECTED BURN OFF HAS NOT
OCCURRED TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 AM...LOCAL RADAR INDICATE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE NOW
DIMINISHED AS SKIES ARE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY.

UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A FAIRLY DEEP TROF
OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH SOME MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT DUE TO LACK OF ANY
TRIGGERS ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY SUNNY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD
KEEPING REGION ON THE COOL SIDE. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS BOTH WED AND THU AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY
BOTH AFTERNOONS SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER. BY
THURSDAY, SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A
MODERATING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z TUE UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
FCST PD...WITH A SCT-BKN CU FIELD THIS AFTN...AND AGN LATE WED
MRNG INTO THE AFTN. IN BETWEEN...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TNT.

THE USUAL EXCEPTION IS KELM...WHERE VLY FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED (STARTING 06-08Z). IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE FORESEEN
HERE THROUGH 12-13Z WED...BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MLJ






000
FXUS61 KBGM 291716
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
116 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS
PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1005 AM UPDATE...
WE HAVE LINGERED THE CLOUDS LONGER WITHIN THE SKY GRIDS THIS
MORNING, AND SUPPRESSED MORNING TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. STRATOCU
AREA EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE TOWARD I-81 CORRIDOR IS PROVING TO
BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK. THE MODEL PROJECTED BURN OFF HAS NOT
OCCURRED TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 AM...LOCAL RADAR INDICATE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE NOW
DIMINISHED AS SKIES ARE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY.

UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A FAIRLY DEEP TROF
OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH SOME MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT DUE TO LACK OF ANY
TRIGGERS ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY SUNNY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD
KEEPING REGION ON THE COOL SIDE. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS BOTH WED AND THU AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY
BOTH AFTERNOONS SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER. BY
THURSDAY, SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A
MODERATING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z TUE UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
FCST PD...WITH A SCT-BKN CU FIELD THIS AFTN...AND AGN LATE WED
MRNG INTO THE AFTN. IN BETWEEN...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TNT.

THE USUAL EXCEPTION IS KELM...WHERE VLY FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED (STARTING 06-08Z). IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE FORESEEN
HERE THROUGH 12-13Z WED...BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MLJ







000
FXUS61 KALY 291714
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
114 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE A DRY AFTERNOON FEELING MORE LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER THAN
LATE JULY.  DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT...LOTS OF CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST AREAS
DUE TO A STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL CAP (WARMING) IN THE SOUNDING SO CUMULUS SHOULD NOT GROW
TALL ENOUGH FOR THUNDER OR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SPRINKLES COULD FALL...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ADDED A FEW CLOUDS PER SATELLITE AND CANADIAN ASTRONOMICAL
CLOUD FORECAST DATA. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE GIVEN THE RAOB AND
UPPER AIR DATA.

SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE...THAT SPRINKLE POSSIBILITY (RAINFALL TOO LIGHT TO MEASURE)
AND COOL BREEZE FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY AROUND 70 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...SO COOLER THAN NORMAL. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL COMFORTABLE
WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND QUITE A
BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CLOUDINESS HAS MADE FOR SCATTERED VARIABLE
BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE MORE SCATTERED
CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 06Z-13Z AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOONAT 10 KT...OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
AT KALB AND KPSF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 291714
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
114 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE A DRY AFTERNOON FEELING MORE LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER THAN
LATE JULY.  DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT...LOTS OF CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST AREAS
DUE TO A STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL CAP (WARMING) IN THE SOUNDING SO CUMULUS SHOULD NOT GROW
TALL ENOUGH FOR THUNDER OR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SPRINKLES COULD FALL...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ADDED A FEW CLOUDS PER SATELLITE AND CANADIAN ASTRONOMICAL
CLOUD FORECAST DATA. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE GIVEN THE RAOB AND
UPPER AIR DATA.

SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE...THAT SPRINKLE POSSIBILITY (RAINFALL TOO LIGHT TO MEASURE)
AND COOL BREEZE FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY AROUND 70 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...SO COOLER THAN NORMAL. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL COMFORTABLE
WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND QUITE A
BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CLOUDINESS HAS MADE FOR SCATTERED VARIABLE
BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE MORE SCATTERED
CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 06Z-13Z AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOONAT 10 KT...OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
AT KALB AND KPSF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KOKX 291655
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1255 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT WILL BE NEAR BY OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY AROUND
60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN...SO
HAVE KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/WILL
SHORTLY HIT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
MAINLY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON - WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVELS A LIMITING FACTOR.

THE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN A MID LEVEL INVERSION THE 4-7000 FT
RANGE...SO DID NOT GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 775 HPA PER BUFKIT AND 12Z
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM AND RAP 2-METER TEMPERATURES...6Z MAV GUIDANCE
AND 00Z MET GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE SHADED CLOSER TO
MET GUIDANCE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WED...BUT THE TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING
MOISTURE APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING
TO HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
CLOUD COVER ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABOVE
CONVECTIVE. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. AT THIS TIME DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

OTHERWISE...VFR. W-NW FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO THE W-SW
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
ARRIVE AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEA BREEZE TIMING
AND DIRECTION...WINDS COULD GO MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 291655
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1255 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT WILL BE NEAR BY OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY AROUND
60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN...SO
HAVE KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/WILL
SHORTLY HIT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
MAINLY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON - WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVELS A LIMITING FACTOR.

THE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN A MID LEVEL INVERSION THE 4-7000 FT
RANGE...SO DID NOT GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 775 HPA PER BUFKIT AND 12Z
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM AND RAP 2-METER TEMPERATURES...6Z MAV GUIDANCE
AND 00Z MET GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE SHADED CLOSER TO
MET GUIDANCE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WED...BUT THE TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING
MOISTURE APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING
TO HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
CLOUD COVER ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABOVE
CONVECTIVE. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. AT THIS TIME DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

OTHERWISE...VFR. W-NW FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO THE W-SW
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
ARRIVE AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEA BREEZE TIMING
AND DIRECTION...WINDS COULD GO MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 291655
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1255 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT WILL BE NEAR BY OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY AROUND
60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN...SO
HAVE KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/WILL
SHORTLY HIT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
MAINLY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON - WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVELS A LIMITING FACTOR.

THE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN A MID LEVEL INVERSION THE 4-7000 FT
RANGE...SO DID NOT GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 775 HPA PER BUFKIT AND 12Z
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM AND RAP 2-METER TEMPERATURES...6Z MAV GUIDANCE
AND 00Z MET GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE SHADED CLOSER TO
MET GUIDANCE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WED...BUT THE TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING
MOISTURE APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING
TO HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
CLOUD COVER ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABOVE
CONVECTIVE. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. AT THIS TIME DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

OTHERWISE...VFR. W-NW FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO THE W-SW
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
ARRIVE AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEA BREEZE TIMING
AND DIRECTION...WINDS COULD GO MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 291655
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1255 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT WILL BE NEAR BY OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY AROUND
60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN...SO
HAVE KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/WILL
SHORTLY HIT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
MAINLY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON - WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVELS A LIMITING FACTOR.

THE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN A MID LEVEL INVERSION THE 4-7000 FT
RANGE...SO DID NOT GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 775 HPA PER BUFKIT AND 12Z
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM AND RAP 2-METER TEMPERATURES...6Z MAV GUIDANCE
AND 00Z MET GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE SHADED CLOSER TO
MET GUIDANCE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WED...BUT THE TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING
MOISTURE APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING
TO HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME.
CLOUD COVER ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABOVE
CONVECTIVE. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. AT THIS TIME DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

OTHERWISE...VFR. W-NW FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO THE W-SW
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
ARRIVE AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEA BREEZE TIMING
AND DIRECTION...WINDS COULD GO MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN







000
FXUS61 KALY 291648
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE A DRY AFTERNOON FEELING MORE LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER THAN
LATE JULY.  DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT...LOTS OF CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST AREAS
DUE TO A STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL CAP (WARMING) IN THE SOUNDING SO CUMULUS SHOULD NOT GROW
TALL ENOUGH FOR THUNDER OR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SPRINKLES COULD FALL...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ADDED A FEW CLOUDS PER SATELLITE AND CANADIAN ASTRONOMICAL
CLOUD FORECAST DATA. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE GIVEN THE RAOB AND
UPPER AIR DATA.

SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE...THAT SPRINKLE POSSIBILITY (RAINFALL TOO LIGHT TO MEASURE)
AND COOL BREEZE FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY AROUND 70 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...SO COOLER THAN NORMAL. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL COMFORTABLE
WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING AROUND 50 DEGREES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 291648
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE A DRY AFTERNOON FEELING MORE LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER THAN
LATE JULY.  DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT...LOTS OF CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST AREAS
DUE TO A STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL CAP (WARMING) IN THE SOUNDING SO CUMULUS SHOULD NOT GROW
TALL ENOUGH FOR THUNDER OR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SPRINKLES COULD FALL...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ADDED A FEW CLOUDS PER SATELLITE AND CANADIAN ASTRONOMICAL
CLOUD FORECAST DATA. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE GIVEN THE RAOB AND
UPPER AIR DATA.

SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE...THAT SPRINKLE POSSIBILITY (RAINFALL TOO LIGHT TO MEASURE)
AND COOL BREEZE FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS...ONLY AROUND 70 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...SO COOLER THAN NORMAL. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL COMFORTABLE
WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING AROUND 50 DEGREES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA










000
FXUS61 KBTV 291645
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1245 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT
SHAPE WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND PARTY CLOUDY/SUNNY SKIES. CURRENT TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S AND LIKELY WILL ONLY
RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN RATHER STEADY BEFORE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE TOWARDS
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MIXING WILL HELP BREAK UP CIGS AT
KMPV/KSLK THIS MRNG WITH VFR UNDER SCT SKIES EVERYWHERE WITH
WINDS <10 KTS TODAY. TNGT...VFR FOR MOST SITES WITH MVFR/IFR PSBL
FOR KMPV/KSLK WITH LGT VRBL WINDS.


AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW







000
FXUS61 KBUF 291533
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1133 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS COOL
PATTERN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HANGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND BUT A LINGERING TROUGH
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE TROUGHING IS FOUND ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST STATES. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY
SKIES FROM WESTERN NEW YORK EAST TO THE FINGER LAKES. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...MUCH DRIER
AIR ALOFT AS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL KEEP JUST SCT/BKN
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 DEGREES
BELOW LATE JULY AVERAGES. 12Z BUF RAOB MEASURES ONLY +6C AT 850MB
WHICH IS ABOUT -2SD. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES WITH MID 60S ACROSS THE COLDER SPOTS.

TONIGHT ANY DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. JULY LAKE EFFECT WILL AGAIN BECOME LIKELY AS BUFKIT
PROFILES INDICATE INCREASING LAKE INDUCED CAPE TO 1500 J/KG AND
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING OVER 30KFT. LAKE-850MB DELTA T`S WILL RISE
OVER 13C. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH A FORECASTED SURFACE
TROUGH AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR CELLULAR LAKE ENHANCED
RAIN TO DEVELOP FIRST OFF LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. A RISK FOR
WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. SURFACE TEMPS WILL AGAIN BOTTOM
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND PROVIDE SEVERAL PERIODS OF ENHANCED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT OR ENHANCED RAIN AT TIMES.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM ITSELF WILL BE WEAK AND MAY ONLY PRODUCE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS. THE LAKES
WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
VERY IMPRESSIVE LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF 1200-1500J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS GREATER THAN 30K FEET. THE STRONG LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS ALMOST ALWAYS ORGANIZED INTO CELLULAR CONVECTION RATHER THAN A
SINGLE BAND...GIVEN HOW DEEPLY MIXED THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN SUMMER.

OFF LAKE ERIE...EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TO EXTEND OFF THE
LAKE INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT 12Z WED. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
DETACH FROM THE LAKE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH...SPREADING SHOWERS EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LOCATED OVER THE LAKE TO
NEAR PRINCE EDWARD POINT AT 12Z WED...SPREADING EAST INTO THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. GIVEN THE
QUALITY OF INSTABILITY FORECAST...THERE MAY BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITHIN THE LAKE BANDS AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT THE LAKES TO TRY TO FLIP...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING TENDING TO EVOLVE INTO
DIURNAL SHOWERS INLAND FROM THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
ANY STORM MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE COOL
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...WITH SHOWERS TENDING TO FOCUS
OVER AND EAST OF THE LAKES AGAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY LEFT FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
LESS THAN THAT OF WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING
TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE
DRY OVERNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING
SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THURSDAY
ADDING ON A FEW MORE DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 50S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY ENOUGH INTO
QUEBEC ON FRIDAY TO BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE TROUGH RELOADS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT DIGGING TROUGH WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND APPALACHIANS...REACHING OUR
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SAME BASIC
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY MONDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS FASTER IN BRINGING
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THIS SYSTEM BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKES ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS
SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO TYPICAL MID SUMMER LEVELS FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BKN/OVC VFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY DO TO A
COOL MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BENEATH A TROUGH OF
COLD AIR ALOFT. ONLY SCT VFR CLOUDS ARE FOUND TOWARD THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION DUE TO THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. EXPECT CLOUD COVERAGE TO HANG IN FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...WITH AGAIN THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION. SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL POP UP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KBUF/KIAG/KJHW WHERE VCSH HAS BEEN
INCLUDED. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH CIGS GENERALLY RANGING
BETWEEN 5 TO 10K FEET...WITH LOW VFR POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN NY AS SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DEVELOP EAST OF THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAKER FLOW IS FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BRING A CHANCE WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
BOTH LAKES ALONG WITH CHANCES OF LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 291533
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1133 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS COOL
PATTERN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HANGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND BUT A LINGERING TROUGH
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE TROUGHING IS FOUND ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST STATES. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY
SKIES FROM WESTERN NEW YORK EAST TO THE FINGER LAKES. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...MUCH DRIER
AIR ALOFT AS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL KEEP JUST SCT/BKN
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 DEGREES
BELOW LATE JULY AVERAGES. 12Z BUF RAOB MEASURES ONLY +6C AT 850MB
WHICH IS ABOUT -2SD. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES WITH MID 60S ACROSS THE COLDER SPOTS.

TONIGHT ANY DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. JULY LAKE EFFECT WILL AGAIN BECOME LIKELY AS BUFKIT
PROFILES INDICATE INCREASING LAKE INDUCED CAPE TO 1500 J/KG AND
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING OVER 30KFT. LAKE-850MB DELTA T`S WILL RISE
OVER 13C. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH A FORECASTED SURFACE
TROUGH AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR CELLULAR LAKE ENHANCED
RAIN TO DEVELOP FIRST OFF LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK. A RISK FOR
WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. SURFACE TEMPS WILL AGAIN BOTTOM
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND PROVIDE SEVERAL PERIODS OF ENHANCED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT OR ENHANCED RAIN AT TIMES.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM ITSELF WILL BE WEAK AND MAY ONLY PRODUCE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS. THE LAKES
WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
VERY IMPRESSIVE LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF 1200-1500J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS GREATER THAN 30K FEET. THE STRONG LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS ALMOST ALWAYS ORGANIZED INTO CELLULAR CONVECTION RATHER THAN A
SINGLE BAND...GIVEN HOW DEEPLY MIXED THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN SUMMER.

OFF LAKE ERIE...EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TO EXTEND OFF THE
LAKE INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT 12Z WED. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
DETACH FROM THE LAKE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH...SPREADING SHOWERS EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LOCATED OVER THE LAKE TO
NEAR PRINCE EDWARD POINT AT 12Z WED...SPREADING EAST INTO THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. GIVEN THE
QUALITY OF INSTABILITY FORECAST...THERE MAY BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITHIN THE LAKE BANDS AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT THE LAKES TO TRY TO FLIP...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING TENDING TO EVOLVE INTO
DIURNAL SHOWERS INLAND FROM THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
ANY STORM MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE COOL
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...WITH SHOWERS TENDING TO FOCUS
OVER AND EAST OF THE LAKES AGAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY LEFT FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
LESS THAN THAT OF WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING
TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE
DRY OVERNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING
SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THURSDAY
ADDING ON A FEW MORE DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 50S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY ENOUGH INTO
QUEBEC ON FRIDAY TO BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE TROUGH RELOADS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT DIGGING TROUGH WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND APPALACHIANS...REACHING OUR
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SAME BASIC
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY MONDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS FASTER IN BRINGING
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THIS SYSTEM BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKES ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS
SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO TYPICAL MID SUMMER LEVELS FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BKN/OVC VFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY DO TO A
COOL MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BENEATH A TROUGH OF
COLD AIR ALOFT. ONLY SCT VFR CLOUDS ARE FOUND TOWARD THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION DUE TO THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. EXPECT CLOUD COVERAGE TO HANG IN FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...WITH AGAIN THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION. SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL POP UP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KBUF/KIAG/KJHW WHERE VCSH HAS BEEN
INCLUDED. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH CIGS GENERALLY RANGING
BETWEEN 5 TO 10K FEET...WITH LOW VFR POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN NY AS SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DEVELOP EAST OF THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAKER FLOW IS FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BRING A CHANCE WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
BOTH LAKES ALONG WITH CHANCES OF LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KOKX 291448
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1048 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT WILL BE NEAR BY OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY
AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN...SO HAVE
KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. TEMPERATURES WILL HIT THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT MAINLY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE
AFTERNOON - WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS A LIMITING FACTOR.

THE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN A MID LEVEL INVERSION THE 4-7000 FT
RANGE...SO DID NOT GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TONIGHT CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABOVE CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. AT THIS TIME DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

OTHERWISE...VFR. W-NW FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO THE W-SW
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
ARRIVE AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEA BREEZE TIMING
AND DIRECTION...WINDS COULD GO MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

SEAS DOWN TO 4.6 FT AT 44017 AND WOULD EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY FALL...SO HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WHICH
EXPIRES AT 11 AM.

WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN





000
FXUS61 KOKX 291448
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1048 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT WILL BE NEAR BY OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY
AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN...SO HAVE
KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. TEMPERATURES WILL HIT THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT MAINLY SCT CUMULUS FOR THE
AFTERNOON - WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS A LIMITING FACTOR.

THE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN A MID LEVEL INVERSION THE 4-7000 FT
RANGE...SO DID NOT GO WITH A CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TONIGHT CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABOVE CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. AT THIS TIME DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

OTHERWISE...VFR. W-NW FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS WILL BACK TO THE W-SW
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
ARRIVE AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEA BREEZE TIMING
AND DIRECTION...WINDS COULD GO MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

SEAS DOWN TO 4.6 FT AT 44017 AND WOULD EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY FALL...SO HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WHICH
EXPIRES AT 11 AM.

WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN




000
FXUS61 KBTV 291425
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1025 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1024 AM EDT TUESDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH
ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND SKY TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.

WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE BRINGING CLEARING THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
AND SURFACE OBS.

WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY TODAY AS EXPECTING WET GROUND WILL
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE FOR SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT AS MODEL SOUNDING
SHOWING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UP AROUND 10K FT MAY RESULT IN SC
SPREADING OUT TO LOW AC BUT HINDER ANY PRECIPITATION BUT MAY
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGEST.

850 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 8-9C THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MIXING WILL HELP BREAK UP CIGS AT
KMPV/KSLK THIS MRNG WITH VFR UNDER SCT SKIES EVERYWHERE WITH
WINDS <10 KTS TODAY. TNGT...VFR FOR MOST SITES WITH MVFR/IFR PSBL
FOR KMPV/KSLK WITH LGT VRBL WINDS.


AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW








000
FXUS61 KBTV 291425
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1025 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1024 AM EDT TUESDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH
ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND SKY TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.

WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE BRINGING CLEARING THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
AND SURFACE OBS.

WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY TODAY AS EXPECTING WET GROUND WILL
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE FOR SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT AS MODEL SOUNDING
SHOWING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UP AROUND 10K FT MAY RESULT IN SC
SPREADING OUT TO LOW AC BUT HINDER ANY PRECIPITATION BUT MAY
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGEST.

850 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 8-9C THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MIXING WILL HELP BREAK UP CIGS AT
KMPV/KSLK THIS MRNG WITH VFR UNDER SCT SKIES EVERYWHERE WITH
WINDS <10 KTS TODAY. TNGT...VFR FOR MOST SITES WITH MVFR/IFR PSBL
FOR KMPV/KSLK WITH LGT VRBL WINDS.


AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW







000
FXUS61 KALY 291422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1006 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN A FAIR
BUT COOL DAY. DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE
LOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM...AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SO...WITH SUNSHINE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...DECENT MIXING EVEN AS WE ADVECT COOLER
AIR AT LOW LEVELS. BASED ON AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...FEW CHANGES IF ANY TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 70S...BUT SOME 60S IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA











000
FXUS61 KALY 291422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1006 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN A FAIR
BUT COOL DAY. DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE
LOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM...AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SO...WITH SUNSHINE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...DECENT MIXING EVEN AS WE ADVECT COOLER
AIR AT LOW LEVELS. BASED ON AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...FEW CHANGES IF ANY TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 70S...BUT SOME 60S IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA










000
FXUS61 KBGM 291406
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1006 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS
PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1005 AM UPDATE...
WE HAVE LINGERED THE CLOUDS LONGER WITHIN THE SKY GRIDS THIS
MORNING, AND SUPPRESSED MORNING TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. STRATOCU
AREA EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE TOWARD I-81 CORRIDOR IS PROVING TO
BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK. THE MODEL PROJECTED BURN OFF HAS NOT
OCCURRED TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 AM...LOCAL RADAR INDICATE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE NOW
DIMINISHED AS SKIES ARE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY.

UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A FAIRLY DEEP TROF
OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH SOME MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT DUE TO LACK OF ANY
TRIGGERS ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY SUNNY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD
KEEPING REGION ON THE COOL SIDE. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS BOTH WED AND THU AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY
BOTH AFTERNOONS SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER. BY
THURSDAY, SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A
MODERATING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KITH THROUGH 14Z AND OUTSIDE SHOT
ALSO AT KBGM. OTHERWISE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST EXTENSIVE
CUMULUS COVERAGE TODAY WILL BE FROM KITH SOUTH, WITH A BETTER SHOT
AT SUN COMING AT SYR AND RME. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BY EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH A NEAR CALM WIND AND OUR RECENT RAIN, ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S, VALLEY FOG WILL PRODUCE IFR VSBYS AT
KELM AFTER 07Z.


WINDS OUT OF THE WNW TODAY, BECOMING NEAR CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...HEDEN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 291406
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1006 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS
PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1005 AM UPDATE...
WE HAVE LINGERED THE CLOUDS LONGER WITHIN THE SKY GRIDS THIS
MORNING, AND SUPPRESSED MORNING TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. STRATOCU
AREA EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE TOWARD I-81 CORRIDOR IS PROVING TO
BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK. THE MODEL PROJECTED BURN OFF HAS NOT
OCCURRED TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 4 AM...LOCAL RADAR INDICATE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE NOW
DIMINISHED AS SKIES ARE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY.

UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A FAIRLY DEEP TROF
OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH SOME MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT DUE TO LACK OF ANY
TRIGGERS ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY SUNNY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD
KEEPING REGION ON THE COOL SIDE. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS BOTH WED AND THU AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY
BOTH AFTERNOONS SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER. BY
THURSDAY, SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A
MODERATING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KITH THROUGH 14Z AND OUTSIDE SHOT
ALSO AT KBGM. OTHERWISE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST EXTENSIVE
CUMULUS COVERAGE TODAY WILL BE FROM KITH SOUTH, WITH A BETTER SHOT
AT SUN COMING AT SYR AND RME. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BY EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH A NEAR CALM WIND AND OUR RECENT RAIN, ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S, VALLEY FOG WILL PRODUCE IFR VSBYS AT
KELM AFTER 07Z.


WINDS OUT OF THE WNW TODAY, BECOMING NEAR CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KALY 291406
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1006 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN A FAIR
BUT COOL DAY. DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE
LOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM...AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SO...WITH SUNSHINE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...DECENT MIXING EVEN AS WE ADVECT COOLER
AIR AT LOW LEVELS. BASED ON AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...FEW CHANGES IF ANY TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 70S...BUT SOME 60S IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 291406
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1006 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN A FAIR
BUT COOL DAY. DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE
LOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM...AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SO...WITH SUNSHINE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...DECENT MIXING EVEN AS WE ADVECT COOLER
AIR AT LOW LEVELS. BASED ON AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...FEW CHANGES IF ANY TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 70S...BUT SOME 60S IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBUF 291200
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TODAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS COOLER
PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THEN
DRIER WEATHER ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 12Z REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WELL
UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE A WEAK
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING PROVIDING DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND SUN ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. DIURNAL CU
WILL START TO POP THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES SOMEWHAT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL ALSO BE WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN PART DUE TO SURFACE HEATING. DEEPER MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSING OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT MAINLY DRY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND PROVIDE SEVERAL PERIODS OF ENHANCED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT OR ENHANCED RAIN AT TIMES.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM ITSELF WILL BE WEAK AND MAY ONLY PRODUCE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS. THE LAKES
WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
VERY IMPRESSIVE LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF 1200-1500J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS GREATER THAN 30K FEET. THE STRONG LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS ALMOST ALWAYS ORGANIZED INTO CELLULAR CONVECTION RATHER THAN A
SINGLE BAND...GIVEN HOW DEEPLY MIXED THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN SUMMER.

OFF LAKE ERIE...EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TO EXTEND OFF THE
LAKE INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT 12Z WED. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
DETACH FROM THE LAKE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH...SPREADING SHOWERS EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LOCATED OVER THE LAKE TO
NEAR PRINCE EDWARD POINT AT 12Z WED...SPREADING EAST INTO THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. GIVEN THE
QUALITY OF INSTABILITY FORECAST...THERE MAY BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITHIN THE LAKE BANDS AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT THE LAKES TO TRY TO FLIP...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING TENDING TO EVOLVE INTO
DIURNAL SHOWERS INLAND FROM THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
ANY STORM MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE COOL
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...WITH SHOWERS TENDING TO FOCUS
OVER AND EAST OF THE LAKES AGAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY LEFT FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
LESS THAN THAT OF WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING
TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE
DRY OVERNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING
SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THURSDAY
ADDING ON A FEW MORE DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 50S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY ENOUGH INTO
QUEBEC ON FRIDAY TO BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE TROUGH RELOADS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT DIGGING TROUGH WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND APPALACHIANS...REACHING OUR
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SAME BASIC
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY MONDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS FASTER IN BRINGING
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THIS SYSTEM BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKES ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS
SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO TYPICAL MID SUMMER LEVELS FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 12Z CIGS REMAIN AT 4K-6K FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THANKS TO A
COOL MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER HAS A FEW LOCATIONS WITH CIGS DOWN
TO 1-2K FT. LESSER AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS ARE FOUND TOWARD THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION DUE TO THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. EXPECT CLOUD COVERAGE TO HANG IN FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...WITH AGAIN THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION. ANY CLEARING THAT DOES OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATER
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH 4 TO
6K FEET BASES WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH CIGS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 5 TO 10K FEET...WITH LOW
VFR POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN NY.

WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE DAY. TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAKER FLOW IS FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 291200
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TODAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS COOLER
PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THEN
DRIER WEATHER ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 12Z REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WELL
UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE A WEAK
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING PROVIDING DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND SUN ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. DIURNAL CU
WILL START TO POP THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES SOMEWHAT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL ALSO BE WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN PART DUE TO SURFACE HEATING. DEEPER MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSING OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT MAINLY DRY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND PROVIDE SEVERAL PERIODS OF ENHANCED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT OR ENHANCED RAIN AT TIMES.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM ITSELF WILL BE WEAK AND MAY ONLY PRODUCE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS. THE LAKES
WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
VERY IMPRESSIVE LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF 1200-1500J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS GREATER THAN 30K FEET. THE STRONG LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS ALMOST ALWAYS ORGANIZED INTO CELLULAR CONVECTION RATHER THAN A
SINGLE BAND...GIVEN HOW DEEPLY MIXED THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN SUMMER.

OFF LAKE ERIE...EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TO EXTEND OFF THE
LAKE INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT 12Z WED. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
DETACH FROM THE LAKE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH...SPREADING SHOWERS EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LOCATED OVER THE LAKE TO
NEAR PRINCE EDWARD POINT AT 12Z WED...SPREADING EAST INTO THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. GIVEN THE
QUALITY OF INSTABILITY FORECAST...THERE MAY BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITHIN THE LAKE BANDS AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT THE LAKES TO TRY TO FLIP...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING TENDING TO EVOLVE INTO
DIURNAL SHOWERS INLAND FROM THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
ANY STORM MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE COOL
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...WITH SHOWERS TENDING TO FOCUS
OVER AND EAST OF THE LAKES AGAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY LEFT FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
LESS THAN THAT OF WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING
TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE
DRY OVERNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING
SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THURSDAY
ADDING ON A FEW MORE DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 50S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY ENOUGH INTO
QUEBEC ON FRIDAY TO BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE TROUGH RELOADS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT DIGGING TROUGH WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND APPALACHIANS...REACHING OUR
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SAME BASIC
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY MONDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS FASTER IN BRINGING
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THIS SYSTEM BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKES ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS
SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO TYPICAL MID SUMMER LEVELS FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 12Z CIGS REMAIN AT 4K-6K FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THANKS TO A
COOL MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER HAS A FEW LOCATIONS WITH CIGS DOWN
TO 1-2K FT. LESSER AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS ARE FOUND TOWARD THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION DUE TO THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. EXPECT CLOUD COVERAGE TO HANG IN FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...WITH AGAIN THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION. ANY CLEARING THAT DOES OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATER
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH 4 TO
6K FEET BASES WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH CIGS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 5 TO 10K FEET...WITH LOW
VFR POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN NY.

WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE DAY. TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAKER FLOW IS FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 291200
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TODAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS COOLER
PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THEN
DRIER WEATHER ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 12Z REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WELL
UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE A WEAK
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING PROVIDING DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND SUN ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. DIURNAL CU
WILL START TO POP THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES SOMEWHAT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL ALSO BE WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN PART DUE TO SURFACE HEATING. DEEPER MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSING OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT MAINLY DRY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND PROVIDE SEVERAL PERIODS OF ENHANCED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT OR ENHANCED RAIN AT TIMES.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM ITSELF WILL BE WEAK AND MAY ONLY PRODUCE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS. THE LAKES
WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
VERY IMPRESSIVE LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF 1200-1500J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS GREATER THAN 30K FEET. THE STRONG LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS ALMOST ALWAYS ORGANIZED INTO CELLULAR CONVECTION RATHER THAN A
SINGLE BAND...GIVEN HOW DEEPLY MIXED THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN SUMMER.

OFF LAKE ERIE...EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TO EXTEND OFF THE
LAKE INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT 12Z WED. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
DETACH FROM THE LAKE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH...SPREADING SHOWERS EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LOCATED OVER THE LAKE TO
NEAR PRINCE EDWARD POINT AT 12Z WED...SPREADING EAST INTO THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. GIVEN THE
QUALITY OF INSTABILITY FORECAST...THERE MAY BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITHIN THE LAKE BANDS AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT THE LAKES TO TRY TO FLIP...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING TENDING TO EVOLVE INTO
DIURNAL SHOWERS INLAND FROM THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
ANY STORM MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE COOL
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...WITH SHOWERS TENDING TO FOCUS
OVER AND EAST OF THE LAKES AGAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY LEFT FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
LESS THAN THAT OF WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING
TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE
DRY OVERNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING
SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THURSDAY
ADDING ON A FEW MORE DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 50S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY ENOUGH INTO
QUEBEC ON FRIDAY TO BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE TROUGH RELOADS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT DIGGING TROUGH WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND APPALACHIANS...REACHING OUR
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SAME BASIC
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY MONDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS FASTER IN BRINGING
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THIS SYSTEM BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKES ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS
SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO TYPICAL MID SUMMER LEVELS FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 12Z CIGS REMAIN AT 4K-6K FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THANKS TO A
COOL MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER HAS A FEW LOCATIONS WITH CIGS DOWN
TO 1-2K FT. LESSER AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS ARE FOUND TOWARD THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION DUE TO THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. EXPECT CLOUD COVERAGE TO HANG IN FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...WITH AGAIN THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION. ANY CLEARING THAT DOES OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATER
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH 4 TO
6K FEET BASES WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH CIGS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 5 TO 10K FEET...WITH LOW
VFR POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN NY.

WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE DAY. TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAKER FLOW IS FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 291200
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TODAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS COOLER
PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THEN
DRIER WEATHER ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 12Z REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WELL
UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE A WEAK
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING PROVIDING DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND SUN ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. DIURNAL CU
WILL START TO POP THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES SOMEWHAT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL ALSO BE WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN PART DUE TO SURFACE HEATING. DEEPER MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSING OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS AS WELL.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT MAINLY DRY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND PROVIDE SEVERAL PERIODS OF ENHANCED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT OR ENHANCED RAIN AT TIMES.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM ITSELF WILL BE WEAK AND MAY ONLY PRODUCE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS. THE LAKES
WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
VERY IMPRESSIVE LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF 1200-1500J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS GREATER THAN 30K FEET. THE STRONG LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS ALMOST ALWAYS ORGANIZED INTO CELLULAR CONVECTION RATHER THAN A
SINGLE BAND...GIVEN HOW DEEPLY MIXED THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN SUMMER.

OFF LAKE ERIE...EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TO EXTEND OFF THE
LAKE INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT 12Z WED. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
DETACH FROM THE LAKE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH...SPREADING SHOWERS EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LOCATED OVER THE LAKE TO
NEAR PRINCE EDWARD POINT AT 12Z WED...SPREADING EAST INTO THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. GIVEN THE
QUALITY OF INSTABILITY FORECAST...THERE MAY BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITHIN THE LAKE BANDS AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT THE LAKES TO TRY TO FLIP...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING TENDING TO EVOLVE INTO
DIURNAL SHOWERS INLAND FROM THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
ANY STORM MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE COOL
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...WITH SHOWERS TENDING TO FOCUS
OVER AND EAST OF THE LAKES AGAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY LEFT FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
LESS THAN THAT OF WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING
TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE
DRY OVERNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING
SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THURSDAY
ADDING ON A FEW MORE DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 50S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY ENOUGH INTO
QUEBEC ON FRIDAY TO BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE TROUGH RELOADS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT DIGGING TROUGH WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND APPALACHIANS...REACHING OUR
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SAME BASIC
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY MONDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS FASTER IN BRINGING
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THIS SYSTEM BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKES ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS
SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO TYPICAL MID SUMMER LEVELS FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 12Z CIGS REMAIN AT 4K-6K FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THANKS TO A
COOL MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER HAS A FEW LOCATIONS WITH CIGS DOWN
TO 1-2K FT. LESSER AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS ARE FOUND TOWARD THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION DUE TO THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. EXPECT CLOUD COVERAGE TO HANG IN FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...WITH AGAIN THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION. ANY CLEARING THAT DOES OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATER
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH 4 TO
6K FEET BASES WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH CIGS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 5 TO 10K FEET...WITH LOW
VFR POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN NY.

WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE DAY. TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAKER FLOW IS FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 291132
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 731 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE BRINGING CLEARING THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
AND SURFACE OBS.

WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY TODAY AS EXPECTING WET GROUND WILL
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE FOR SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT AS MODEL SOUNDING
SHOWING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UP AROUND 10K FT MAY RESULT IN SC
SPREADING OUT TO LOW AC BUT HINDER ANY PRECIPITATION BUT MAY
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGEST.

850 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 8-9C THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MIXING WILL HELP BREAK UP CIGS AT
KMPV/KSLK THIS MRNG WITH VFR UNDER SCT SKIES EVERYWHERE WITH
WINDS <10 KTS TODAY. TNGT...VFR FOR MOST SITES WITH MVFR/IFR PSBL
FOR KMPV/KSLK WITH LGT VRBL WINDS.


AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW








000
FXUS61 KBTV 291132
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 731 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE BRINGING CLEARING THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
AND SURFACE OBS.

WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY TODAY AS EXPECTING WET GROUND WILL
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE FOR SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT AS MODEL SOUNDING
SHOWING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UP AROUND 10K FT MAY RESULT IN SC
SPREADING OUT TO LOW AC BUT HINDER ANY PRECIPITATION BUT MAY
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGEST.

850 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 8-9C THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MIXING WILL HELP BREAK UP CIGS AT
KMPV/KSLK THIS MRNG WITH VFR UNDER SCT SKIES EVERYWHERE WITH
WINDS <10 KTS TODAY. TNGT...VFR FOR MOST SITES WITH MVFR/IFR PSBL
FOR KMPV/KSLK WITH LGT VRBL WINDS.


AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 291132
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
732 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
COAST...AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...OTHERWISE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN. PW/S
ONLY AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FCST
GOING. TEMPS WILL HIT CONVECTIVE SO SCT TO OCNL BKN CU FOR THE
AFTN.

THE FAIR WX CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TNGT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE.

TEMPS TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TNGT CLOSER TO THE MET.

MDT RISK FOR RIPS TODAY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY ATTM. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABV CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. ATTM DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR
COASTAL TERMINALS.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
MAKE IT AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEA BREEZE TIMING
AND DIRECTION...WINDS COULD GO MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. WAVES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED BY 1/2 FT FROM WAVEWATCH ON THE OCEAN. RETAINED THE SCA
EXPIRATION TIMING OF 11 AM BASED ON THIS FCST DATA AS WELL AS
CURRENT TRENDS. WIND AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TNGT AND WED WITH
HIPRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 291132
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
732 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
COAST...AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...OTHERWISE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN. PW/S
ONLY AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FCST
GOING. TEMPS WILL HIT CONVECTIVE SO SCT TO OCNL BKN CU FOR THE
AFTN.

THE FAIR WX CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TNGT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE.

TEMPS TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TNGT CLOSER TO THE MET.

MDT RISK FOR RIPS TODAY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY ATTM. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABV CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. ATTM DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR
COASTAL TERMINALS.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
MAKE IT AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEA BREEZE TIMING
AND DIRECTION...WINDS COULD GO MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. WAVES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED BY 1/2 FT FROM WAVEWATCH ON THE OCEAN. RETAINED THE SCA
EXPIRATION TIMING OF 11 AM BASED ON THIS FCST DATA AS WELL AS
CURRENT TRENDS. WIND AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TNGT AND WED WITH
HIPRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 291132
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
732 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
COAST...AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...OTHERWISE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN. PW/S
ONLY AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FCST
GOING. TEMPS WILL HIT CONVECTIVE SO SCT TO OCNL BKN CU FOR THE
AFTN.

THE FAIR WX CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TNGT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE.

TEMPS TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TNGT CLOSER TO THE MET.

MDT RISK FOR RIPS TODAY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY ATTM. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABV CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. ATTM DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR
COASTAL TERMINALS.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
MAKE IT AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEA BREEZE TIMING
AND DIRECTION...WINDS COULD GO MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. WAVES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED BY 1/2 FT FROM WAVEWATCH ON THE OCEAN. RETAINED THE SCA
EXPIRATION TIMING OF 11 AM BASED ON THIS FCST DATA AS WELL AS
CURRENT TRENDS. WIND AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TNGT AND WED WITH
HIPRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 291132
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
732 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
COAST...AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...OTHERWISE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN. PW/S
ONLY AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FCST
GOING. TEMPS WILL HIT CONVECTIVE SO SCT TO OCNL BKN CU FOR THE
AFTN.

THE FAIR WX CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TNGT...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD END UP TRAPPED IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE.

TEMPS TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TNGT CLOSER TO THE MET.

MDT RISK FOR RIPS TODAY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY ATTM. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABV CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. ATTM DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR
COASTAL TERMINALS.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
MAKE IT AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SEA BREEZE TIMING
AND DIRECTION...WINDS COULD GO MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. WAVES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED BY 1/2 FT FROM WAVEWATCH ON THE OCEAN. RETAINED THE SCA
EXPIRATION TIMING OF 11 AM BASED ON THIS FCST DATA AS WELL AS
CURRENT TRENDS. WIND AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TNGT AND WED WITH
HIPRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN








000
FXUS61 KBTV 291118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN MAINE AIR SKIES WILL BE
CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBS.

WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY TODAY AS EXPECTING WET GROUND WILL
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE FOR SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT AS MODEL SOUNDING
SHOWING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UP AROUND 10K FT MAY RESULT IN SC
SPREADING OUT TO LOW AC BUT HINDER ANY PRECIPITATION BUT MAY
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGEST.

850 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 8-9C THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MIXING WILL HELP BREAK UP CIGS AT
KMPV/KSLK THIS MRNG WITH VFR UNDER SCT SKIES EVERYWHERE WITH
WINDS <10 KTS TODAY. TNGT...VFR FOR MOST SITES WITH MVFR/IFR PSBL
FOR KMPV/KSLK WITH LGT VRBL WINDS.


AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW






000
FXUS61 KBTV 291118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN MAINE AIR SKIES WILL BE
CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBS.

WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY TODAY AS EXPECTING WET GROUND WILL
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE FOR SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT AS MODEL SOUNDING
SHOWING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UP AROUND 10K FT MAY RESULT IN SC
SPREADING OUT TO LOW AC BUT HINDER ANY PRECIPITATION BUT MAY
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGEST.

850 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 8-9C THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MIXING WILL HELP BREAK UP CIGS AT
KMPV/KSLK THIS MRNG WITH VFR UNDER SCT SKIES EVERYWHERE WITH
WINDS <10 KTS TODAY. TNGT...VFR FOR MOST SITES WITH MVFR/IFR PSBL
FOR KMPV/KSLK WITH LGT VRBL WINDS.


AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW






000
FXUS61 KBTV 291118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN MAINE AIR SKIES WILL BE
CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBS.

WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY TODAY AS EXPECTING WET GROUND WILL
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE FOR SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT AS MODEL SOUNDING
SHOWING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UP AROUND 10K FT MAY RESULT IN SC
SPREADING OUT TO LOW AC BUT HINDER ANY PRECIPITATION BUT MAY
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGEST.

850 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 8-9C THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MIXING WILL HELP BREAK UP CIGS AT
KMPV/KSLK THIS MRNG WITH VFR UNDER SCT SKIES EVERYWHERE WITH
WINDS <10 KTS TODAY. TNGT...VFR FOR MOST SITES WITH MVFR/IFR PSBL
FOR KMPV/KSLK WITH LGT VRBL WINDS.


AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW






000
FXUS61 KBTV 291118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN MAINE AIR SKIES WILL BE
CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBS.

WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY TODAY AS EXPECTING WET GROUND WILL
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE FOR SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT AS MODEL SOUNDING
SHOWING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UP AROUND 10K FT MAY RESULT IN SC
SPREADING OUT TO LOW AC BUT HINDER ANY PRECIPITATION BUT MAY
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGEST.

850 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 8-9C THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MIXING WILL HELP BREAK UP CIGS AT
KMPV/KSLK THIS MRNG WITH VFR UNDER SCT SKIES EVERYWHERE WITH
WINDS <10 KTS TODAY. TNGT...VFR FOR MOST SITES WITH MVFR/IFR PSBL
FOR KMPV/KSLK WITH LGT VRBL WINDS.


AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW






000
FXUS61 KBGM 291047
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
647 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS
PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 4 AM...LOCAL RADAR INDICATE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE NOW
DIMINISHED AS SKIES ARE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY.

UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A FAIRLY DEEP TROF
OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH SOME MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT DUE TO LACK OF ANY
TRIGGERS ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY SUNNY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD
KEEPING REGION ON THE COOL SIDE. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS BOTH WED AND THU AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY
BOTH AFTERNOONS SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER. BY
THURSDAY, SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A
MODERATING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KITH THROUGH 14Z AND OUTSIDE SHOT
ALSO AT KBGM. OTHERWISE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST EXTENSIVE
CUMULUS COVERAGE TODAY WILL BE FROM KITH SOUTH, WITH A BETTER SHOT
AT SUN COMING AT SYR AND RME. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BY EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH A NEAR CALM WIND AND OUR RECENT RAIN, ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S, VALLEY FOG WILL PRODUCE IFR VSBYS AT
KELM AFTER 07Z.


WINDS OUT OF THE WNW TODAY, BECOMING NEAR CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 291047
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
647 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS
PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 4 AM...LOCAL RADAR INDICATE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE NOW
DIMINISHED AS SKIES ARE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY.

UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A FAIRLY DEEP TROF
OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH SOME MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT DUE TO LACK OF ANY
TRIGGERS ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY SUNNY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD
KEEPING REGION ON THE COOL SIDE. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS BOTH WED AND THU AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY
BOTH AFTERNOONS SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER. BY
THURSDAY, SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A
MODERATING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KITH THROUGH 14Z AND OUTSIDE SHOT
ALSO AT KBGM. OTHERWISE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST EXTENSIVE
CUMULUS COVERAGE TODAY WILL BE FROM KITH SOUTH, WITH A BETTER SHOT
AT SUN COMING AT SYR AND RME. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BY EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH A NEAR CALM WIND AND OUR RECENT RAIN, ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S, VALLEY FOG WILL PRODUCE IFR VSBYS AT
KELM AFTER 07Z.


WINDS OUT OF THE WNW TODAY, BECOMING NEAR CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...HEDEN






000
FXUS61 KALY 291037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AS IT IS DRAWN
NORTHWARD BY THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS IS
ALLOWING HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD. LOOKING AT A FAIR BUT COOL
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 291037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AS IT IS DRAWN
NORTHWARD BY THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS IS
ALLOWING HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD. LOOKING AT A FAIR BUT COOL
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 291037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AS IT IS DRAWN
NORTHWARD BY THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS IS
ALLOWING HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD. LOOKING AT A FAIR BUT COOL
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 291037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AS IT IS DRAWN
NORTHWARD BY THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS IS
ALLOWING HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD. LOOKING AT A FAIR BUT COOL
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE MAINLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER
CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
PASSING CLOUDS...ESP IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
THIS IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. HOWEVER...AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER
OUT...AND FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY MID
MORNING.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MAINLY DISSIPATE FOR
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT...AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBUF 290920
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
520 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS COOLER
PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THEN
DRIER WEATHER ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 09Z REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WELL
UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE A WEAK
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND CLOUDS MIXED WITH SUN. DIURNAL CU
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK IN PART DUE TO SURFACE
HEATING. THIS ALONG WITH DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING
OVER THE AREA WILL HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT MAINLY DRY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND PROVIDE SEVERAL PERIODS OF ENHANCED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT OR ENHANCED RAIN AT TIMES.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM ITSELF WILL BE WEAK AND MAY ONLY PRODUCE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS. THE LAKES
WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
VERY IMPRESSIVE LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF 1200-1500J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS GREATER THAN 30K FEET. THE STRONG LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS ALMOST ALWAYS ORGANIZED INTO CELLULAR CONVECTION RATHER THAN A
SINGLE BAND...GIVEN HOW DEEPLY MIXED THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN SUMMER.

OFF LAKE ERIE...EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TO EXTEND OFF THE
LAKE INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT 12Z WED. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
DETACH FROM THE LAKE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH...SPREADING SHOWERS EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LOCATED OVER THE LAKE TO
NEAR PRINCE EDWARD POINT AT 12Z WED...SPREADING EAST INTO THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. GIVEN THE
QUALITY OF INSTABILITY FORECAST...THERE MAY BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITHIN THE LAKE BANDS AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT THE LAKES TO TRY TO FLIP...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING TENDING TO EVOLVE INTO
DIURNAL SHOWERS INLAND FROM THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
ANY STORM MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE COOL
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...WITH SHOWERS TENDING TO FOCUS
OVER AND EAST OF THE LAKES AGAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY LEFT FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
LESS THAN THAT OF WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING
TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE
DRY OVERNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING
SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THURSDAY
ADDING ON A FEW MORE DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 50S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY ENOUGH INTO
QUEBEC ON FRIDAY TO BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE TROUGH RELOADS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT DIGGING TROUGH WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND APPALACHIANS...REACHING OUR
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SAME BASIC
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY MONDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS FASTER IN BRINGING
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THIS SYSTEM BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKES ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS
SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO TYPICAL MID SUMMER LEVELS FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 09Z CIGS REMAIN AT 4K-6K FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THANKS TO A
COOL MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER HAS A FEW LOCATIONS WITH CIGS DOWN
TO 1-2K FT. LESSER AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS ARE FOUND TOWARD THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION DUE TO THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. EXPECT CLOUD COVERAGE TO THIN OUT SOME
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. THEN SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH 4 TO 6K
FEET BASES WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH CIGS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 5 TO 10K
FEET FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH LOW VFR POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN NY.

WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE DAY. TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAKER FLOW IS FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 290920
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
520 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS COOLER
PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THEN
DRIER WEATHER ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 09Z REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WELL
UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE A WEAK
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND CLOUDS MIXED WITH SUN. DIURNAL CU
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK IN PART DUE TO SURFACE
HEATING. THIS ALONG WITH DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING
OVER THE AREA WILL HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT MAINLY DRY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND PROVIDE SEVERAL PERIODS OF ENHANCED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT OR ENHANCED RAIN AT TIMES.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM ITSELF WILL BE WEAK AND MAY ONLY PRODUCE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS. THE LAKES
WILL COME INTO PLAY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY HOWEVER...WITH
VERY IMPRESSIVE LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF 1200-1500J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS GREATER THAN 30K FEET. THE STRONG LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR
IS ALMOST ALWAYS ORGANIZED INTO CELLULAR CONVECTION RATHER THAN A
SINGLE BAND...GIVEN HOW DEEPLY MIXED THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN SUMMER.

OFF LAKE ERIE...EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TO EXTEND OFF THE
LAKE INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT 12Z WED. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
DETACH FROM THE LAKE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH...SPREADING SHOWERS EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LOCATED OVER THE LAKE TO
NEAR PRINCE EDWARD POINT AT 12Z WED...SPREADING EAST INTO THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. GIVEN THE
QUALITY OF INSTABILITY FORECAST...THERE MAY BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITHIN THE LAKE BANDS AS WELL.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT THE LAKES TO TRY TO FLIP...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING TENDING TO EVOLVE INTO
DIURNAL SHOWERS INLAND FROM THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
ANY STORM MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE COOL
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...WITH SHOWERS TENDING TO FOCUS
OVER AND EAST OF THE LAKES AGAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY LEFT FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
LESS THAN THAT OF WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING
TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE
DRY OVERNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING
SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THURSDAY
ADDING ON A FEW MORE DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 50S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY ENOUGH INTO
QUEBEC ON FRIDAY TO BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE TROUGH RELOADS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT DIGGING TROUGH WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND APPALACHIANS...REACHING OUR
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SAME BASIC
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY MONDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS FASTER IN BRINGING
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THIS SYSTEM BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKES ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS
SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO TYPICAL MID SUMMER LEVELS FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 09Z CIGS REMAIN AT 4K-6K FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THANKS TO A
COOL MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER HAS A FEW LOCATIONS WITH CIGS DOWN
TO 1-2K FT. LESSER AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS ARE FOUND TOWARD THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION DUE TO THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. EXPECT CLOUD COVERAGE TO THIN OUT SOME
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. THEN SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH 4 TO 6K
FEET BASES WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH CIGS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 5 TO 10K
FEET FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH LOW VFR POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN NY.

WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE DAY. TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAKER FLOW IS FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
CLIMATE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 290853
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
453 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN MAINE AIR SKIES WILL BE
CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBS.

WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY TODAY AS EXPECTING WET GROUND WILL
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE FOR SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT AS MODEL SOUNDING
SHOWING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UP AROUND 10K FT MAY RESULT IN SC
SPREADING OUT TO LOW AC BUT HINDER ANY PRECIPITATION BUT MAY
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGEST.

850 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 8-9C THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN HAS PRIMARILY ENDED ACROSS FORECAST
AREA WITH CLOUDS STARTING TO BREAK ACROSS NRN NY. A WIDE RANGE OF
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. VFR AT KPBG/KMSS BUT
MVFR AT KBTV/KRUT WITH IFR FOR KMPV/KSLK DUE TO LOW CLDS/FOG AS
WINDS ARE DECOUPLING FM ERLR.

AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW









000
FXUS61 KBTV 290853
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
453 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN MAINE AIR SKIES WILL BE
CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBS.

WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY TODAY AS EXPECTING WET GROUND WILL
SUPPLY SOME MOISTURE FOR SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT AS MODEL SOUNDING
SHOWING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A
CAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UP AROUND 10K FT MAY RESULT IN SC
SPREADING OUT TO LOW AC BUT HINDER ANY PRECIPITATION BUT MAY
RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGEST.

850 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 8-9C THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS FAIRLY POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT (-18 TO -20C AT 500 MB) ROTATES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

OTHER THAN SOME DISSIPATING DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXPECTING
SOME MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS TO MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALSO
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 8 A.M. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

ON WED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. RESULTING CAPE FROM THE THE
MODELS AVG ABOUT 300 J/KG AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS SHOWING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG AT KMSS. 850 TEMPS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE PERHAPS A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY NEAR 10C WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

AGAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT WITH DIFF VORT
ADVECTION AND COOLING ALOFT. ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ALL SHOWING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WITH OTHER MEMBERS LESS. WITH FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND A LITTLE MORE HEATING COULD SEE SOME
CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG AS THE ECMWF INDICATES OVER VT. FURTHER
WEST IT MAY BE THE TIME OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A BIT TOO EARLY WITH
MOVER CLOUDS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT HEATING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 452 AM EDT TUESDAY...

A FALL/WINTER/EARLY SPRING LOOK TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM...DOMINATED BY A SLOW-MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER
THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT.

THE PROXIMITY OF TROF AXIS ALOFT AND SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ACCOUNT FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA ON THE WEEKEND BUT HOPEFULLY
REMAINING DRY ON FRIDAY OR JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE STRETCH
WITH 70S/L80S DURING THE DAY AND PRIMARILY 50S/L60S AT NIGHT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK INTO U50S/L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN HAS PRIMARILY ENDED ACROSS FORECAST
AREA WITH CLOUDS STARTING TO BREAK ACROSS NRN NY. A WIDE RANGE OF
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. VFR AT KPBG/KMSS BUT
MVFR AT KBTV/KRUT WITH IFR FOR KMPV/KSLK DUE TO LOW CLDS/FOG AS
WINDS ARE DECOUPLING FM ERLR.

AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW










000
FXUS61 KALY 290835
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AS IT IS DRAWN
NORTHWARD BY THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL
ALLOW HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AS IT
WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ABOUT IT.
WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AFFECTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVERHEAD.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL A BIT SHORT OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. NIGHTTIME WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE
WEAKENING...HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS...COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THANKS TO HEATING. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS N THE
70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS...EVEN THOUGH IT WON/T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND THE TROUGH WON/T
CERTAINLY BE AS SHARP IN AMPLITUDE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE WEEKEND FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...BUT THE THREAT FOR AN
AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH A COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF THE AREA...SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE REGION THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVER CANADA. FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE VFR FOR THE VALLEY TAF SITES...BUT REMAIN IFR AT KPSF
THANKS TO LINGERING LOW STRATUS.  AS LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING AT KPSF BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. W-NW WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS...WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5
KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO DISSIPATE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN RESULTING IN A FAIR BUT COOL DAY.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBGM 290810
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
410 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS
PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 4 AM...LOCAL RADAR INDICATE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE NOW
DIMINISHED AS SKIES ARE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY.

UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A FAIRLY DEEP TROF
OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH SOME MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT DUE TO LACK OF ANY
TRIGGERS ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY SUNNY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD
KEEPING REGION ON THE COOL SIDE. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS BOTH WED AND THU AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY
BOTH AFTERNOONS SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER. BY
THURSDAY, SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A
MODERATING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME BRIEF IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE ELEVATED SITES OF
KITH/KBGM, WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KAVP NEXT FEW
HOURS. CONFIDENCE NOT THAT GREAT BASED ON RECENT IMPROVEMENT BUT
STILL HIGH ENOUGH FOR A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 10Z. OTHERWISE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST EXTENSIVE CUMULUS COVERAGE TODAY
WILL BE FROM KITH SOUTH, WITH A BETTER SHOT AT SUN COMING AT SYR
AND RME. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BY EARLY TONIGHT.


WINDS OUT OF THE WNW TODAY, BECOMING NEAR CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 290751 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
351 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
COAST...AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...OTHERWISE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN. PW/S
ONLY AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FCST
GOING. TEMPS WILL HIT CONVECTIVE SO SCT TO OCNL BKN CU FOR THE
AFTN.

THE FAIR WX CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TNGT...BUT IT COULD BE A
SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT IS GOING ON ACROSS OH AND PA WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE.

TEMPS TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TNGT CLOSER TO THE MET.

MDT RISK FOR RIPS TODAY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY ATTM. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABV CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. ATTM DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR AT
LEAST KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
MAKE IT AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED AT KEWR BUT
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF FORECAST CHANGES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. WAVES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED BY 1/2 FT FROM WAVEWATCH ON THE OCEAN. RETAINED THE SCA
EXPIRATION TIMING OF 11 AM BASED ON THIS FCST DATA AS WELL AS
CURRENT TRENDS. WIND AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TNGT AND WED WITH
HIPRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 290751 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
351 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
COAST...AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...OTHERWISE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN. PW/S
ONLY AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FCST
GOING. TEMPS WILL HIT CONVECTIVE SO SCT TO OCNL BKN CU FOR THE
AFTN.

THE FAIR WX CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TNGT...BUT IT COULD BE A
SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT IS GOING ON ACROSS OH AND PA WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE.

TEMPS TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TNGT CLOSER TO THE MET.

MDT RISK FOR RIPS TODAY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY ATTM. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABV CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. ATTM DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR AT
LEAST KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
MAKE IT AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED AT KEWR BUT
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF FORECAST CHANGES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. WAVES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED BY 1/2 FT FROM WAVEWATCH ON THE OCEAN. RETAINED THE SCA
EXPIRATION TIMING OF 11 AM BASED ON THIS FCST DATA AS WELL AS
CURRENT TRENDS. WIND AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TNGT AND WED WITH
HIPRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 290751 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
351 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
COAST...AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...OTHERWISE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN. PW/S
ONLY AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FCST
GOING. TEMPS WILL HIT CONVECTIVE SO SCT TO OCNL BKN CU FOR THE
AFTN.

THE FAIR WX CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TNGT...BUT IT COULD BE A
SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT IS GOING ON ACROSS OH AND PA WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE.

TEMPS TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TNGT CLOSER TO THE MET.

MDT RISK FOR RIPS TODAY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY ATTM. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABV CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. ATTM DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR AT
LEAST KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
MAKE IT AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED AT KEWR BUT
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF FORECAST CHANGES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. WAVES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED BY 1/2 FT FROM WAVEWATCH ON THE OCEAN. RETAINED THE SCA
EXPIRATION TIMING OF 11 AM BASED ON THIS FCST DATA AS WELL AS
CURRENT TRENDS. WIND AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TNGT AND WED WITH
HIPRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 290751 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
351 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
COAST...AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...OTHERWISE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN. PW/S
ONLY AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FCST
GOING. TEMPS WILL HIT CONVECTIVE SO SCT TO OCNL BKN CU FOR THE
AFTN.

THE FAIR WX CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TNGT...BUT IT COULD BE A
SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT IS GOING ON ACROSS OH AND PA WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE.

TEMPS TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TNGT CLOSER TO THE MET.

MDT RISK FOR RIPS TODAY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY ATTM. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABV CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. ATTM DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR AT
LEAST KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
MAKE IT AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED AT KEWR BUT
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF FORECAST CHANGES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. WAVES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED BY 1/2 FT FROM WAVEWATCH ON THE OCEAN. RETAINED THE SCA
EXPIRATION TIMING OF 11 AM BASED ON THIS FCST DATA AS WELL AS
CURRENT TRENDS. WIND AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TNGT AND WED WITH
HIPRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 290746
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
346 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
COAST...AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...OTHERWISE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN. PW/S
ONLY AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FCST
GOING. TEMPS WILL HIT CONVECTIVE SO SCT TO OCNL BKN CU FOR THE
AFTN.

THE FAIR WX CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TNGT...BUT IT COULD BE A
SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT IS GOING ON ACROSS OH AND PA WITH WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE.

TEMPS TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TNGT CLOSER TO THE MET.

MDT RISK FOR RIPS TODAY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY ATTM. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABV CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. ATTM DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR AT
LEAST KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
MAKE IT AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED AT KEWR BUT
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF FORECAST CHANGES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. WAVES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED BY 1/2 FT FROM WAVEWATCH ON THE OCEAN. RETAINED THE SCA
EXPIRATION TIMING OF 11 AM BASED ON THIS FCST DATA AS WELL AS
CURRENT TRENDS. WIND AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TNGT AND WED WITH
HIPRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN






000
FXUS61 KOKX 290746
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
346 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
COAST...AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN TODAY...OTHERWISE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND JULY SUN. PW/S
ONLY AROUND 60 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FCST
GOING. TEMPS WILL HIT CONVECTIVE SO SCT TO OCNL BKN CU FOR THE
AFTN.

THE FAIR WX CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TNGT...BUT IT COULD BE A
SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT IS GOING ON ACROSS OH AND PA WITH WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE.

TEMPS TODAY CLOSE TO GMOS AND TNGT CLOSER TO THE MET.

MDT RISK FOR RIPS TODAY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS PUT OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN WED...BUT THE TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATE GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INHIBIT ANY TRIGGER. AS A RESULT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. INCREASING MOISTURE
APPEARS TO COME IN TOO LATE TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO HAVE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON INSTABILITY ATTM. CLOUD COVER
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO SCT-BKN WITH TEMPS AGAIN ABV CONVECTIVE. TEMPS
CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS
LOW COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLD LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON
THU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

AS THE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND...A PORTION WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH
WILL PUSH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE BACK TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE THE
INLAND TROUGH INDUCES WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT AND/OR
TRIGGERS SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE GFS...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. ATTM DECIDED
TO INCORPORATE ASPECTS OF BOTH INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
WITH SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATION...WITH CHANCE POP SAT INTO SAT EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FCST TO BEGIN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KICKING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/TSTMS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG THU-FRI...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG THIS
WEEKEND VIA CLOUD COVER AND GREATER POP...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR AVG
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR AT
LEAST KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON.

..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SEA BREEZE DOES NOT
MAKE IT AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED AT KEWR BUT
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF FORECAST CHANGES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN
EITHER DIRECTION.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. WAVES HAVE BEEN
DECREASED BY 1/2 FT FROM WAVEWATCH ON THE OCEAN. RETAINED THE SCA
EXPIRATION TIMING OF 11 AM BASED ON THIS FCST DATA AS WELL AS
CURRENT TRENDS. WIND AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TNGT AND WED WITH
HIPRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR CONDS ON THE OCEAN TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS DEPENDING ON POSITION
OF AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU FRI. PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE AND TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO IT IS TOO
EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS OR TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN







000
FXUS61 KBTV 290632
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
232 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE RAPIDLY DRYING UP
WITH CLEARING SKIES ALREADING INTO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP AROUND
BY DAY BREAK. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A FEW SPOT
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN HAS PRIMARILY ENDED ACROSS FORECAST
AREA WITH CLOUDS STARTING TO BREAK ACROSS NRN NY. A WIDE RANGE OF
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. VFR AT KPBG/KMSS BUT
MVFR AT KBTV/KRUT WITH IFR FOR KMPV/KSLK DUE TO LOW CLDS/FOG AS
WINDS ARE DECOUPLING FM ERLR.

AFT 12Z...GENERALLY VFR WITH WINDS AOB 10KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...TABER







000
FXUS61 KBUF 290613
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DEPART THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A FEW DAILY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END REGION WIDE AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES
OVER THE AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT MAINLY DRY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/RGEM GUIDANCE FORECAST A VORTICITY
MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE IMPULSE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPULSES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A WEAKER
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS.
ALL AND ALL...SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...WITH QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL) AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPEN UP TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
WISE...AS THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND 500H HEIGHTS RISE SO WILL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT 06Z. CIGS WILL
REMAIN AT 4K-6K FEET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...EVEN SOME FEW/SCT SKIES
SEEN OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. MOST CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING CIGS
DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS. SCATTERED CU WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE LIFT NORTH INTO NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT.
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL
DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY MORNING. WAVES UP TO 3 FEET EARLY WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAKER FLOW IS FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/TMA
NEAR TERM...JM/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JM/TMA
MARINE...JM/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 290613
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DEPART THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A FEW DAILY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END REGION WIDE AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES
OVER THE AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT MAINLY DRY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/RGEM GUIDANCE FORECAST A VORTICITY
MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE IMPULSE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPULSES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A WEAKER
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS.
ALL AND ALL...SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...WITH QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL) AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPEN UP TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
WISE...AS THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND 500H HEIGHTS RISE SO WILL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT 06Z. CIGS WILL
REMAIN AT 4K-6K FEET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...EVEN SOME FEW/SCT SKIES
SEEN OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. MOST CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING CIGS
DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS. SCATTERED CU WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE LIFT NORTH INTO NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT.
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL
DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY MORNING. WAVES UP TO 3 FEET EARLY WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAKER FLOW IS FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/TMA
NEAR TERM...JM/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JM/TMA
MARINE...JM/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 290613
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DEPART THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A FEW DAILY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END REGION WIDE AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES
OVER THE AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT MAINLY DRY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/RGEM GUIDANCE FORECAST A VORTICITY
MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE IMPULSE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPULSES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A WEAKER
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS.
ALL AND ALL...SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...WITH QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL) AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPEN UP TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
WISE...AS THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND 500H HEIGHTS RISE SO WILL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT 06Z. CIGS WILL
REMAIN AT 4K-6K FEET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...EVEN SOME FEW/SCT SKIES
SEEN OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. MOST CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING CIGS
DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS. SCATTERED CU WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE LIFT NORTH INTO NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT.
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL
DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY MORNING. WAVES UP TO 3 FEET EARLY WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAKER FLOW IS FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/TMA
NEAR TERM...JM/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JM/TMA
MARINE...JM/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 290613
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DEPART THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A FEW DAILY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END REGION WIDE AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES
OVER THE AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT MAINLY DRY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/RGEM GUIDANCE FORECAST A VORTICITY
MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE IMPULSE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPULSES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A WEAKER
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS.
ALL AND ALL...SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...WITH QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL) AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPEN UP TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
WISE...AS THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND 500H HEIGHTS RISE SO WILL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT 06Z. CIGS WILL
REMAIN AT 4K-6K FEET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...EVEN SOME FEW/SCT SKIES
SEEN OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. MOST CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING CIGS
DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS. SCATTERED CU WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE LIFT NORTH INTO NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT.
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL
DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY MORNING. WAVES UP TO 3 FEET EARLY WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAKER FLOW IS FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/TMA
NEAR TERM...JM/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JM/TMA
MARINE...JM/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBGM 290540
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
140 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...HIT
AND MISS AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...AS UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1040 PM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. MASSAGED TEMPS AS THEY ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW
50S ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT AS THE DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION... THEY WILL CONTINUE TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES.
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SHOULD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DISSIPATE AS WELL.
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL GOOD.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...
DRY AIR IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NY THIS EVENING AS WE ARE
FINALLY STARTING TO BE POSITIONED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPR LVL
TROUGH. DEW POINTS OVER FAR WESTERN NY ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
AND EXPECT THE DEW POINTS OVER OUR CWA TO FALL INTO THIS RANGE AS
WELL. AS THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EXPECT WHAT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE LINGERING TO DISSIPATE. AND EXPECT CLOUD
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TO BECOME LESS AND LESS.

IT WILL BECOME QUITE CHILLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPR 40S. AS THE SKIES CLEAR OUT VALLEY FOG
MAY DEVELOP... AND IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE SKY BECOMES CLEAR FOR A
FEW HOURS OR MORE MAY SEE SOME DENSE FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
410 PM MON UPDATE... THE NEXT FEW DAYS (TUE-THU) WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...JUST AHD OF A LINGERING
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY RGNS.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY BLDG
EWD FROM THE UPR LAKES RGN AND SWRN ONT.

IN GENERAL...THIS MEANS DRY WX MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WIDELY SEPARATED SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ARND...MOSTLY
WED AND THU...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO NY/PA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COOL FOR THE END OF JULY (HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S)...THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY MODERATE TWDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME BRIEF IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE ELEVATED SITES OF
KITH/KBGM, WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KAVP NEXT FEW
HOURS. CONFIDENCE NOT THAT GREAT BASED ON RECENT IMPROVEMENT BUT
STILL HIGH ENOUGH FOR A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 10Z. OTHERWISE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST EXTENSIVE CUMULUS COVERAGE TODAY
WILL BE FROM KITH SOUTH, WITH A BETTER SHOT AT SUN COMING AT SYR
AND RME. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BY EARLY TONIGHT.


WINDS OUT OF THE WNW TODAY, BECOMING NEAR CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...HEDEN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 290540
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
140 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...HIT
AND MISS AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...AS UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1040 PM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. MASSAGED TEMPS AS THEY ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW
50S ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT AS THE DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION... THEY WILL CONTINUE TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES.
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SHOULD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DISSIPATE AS WELL.
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL GOOD.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...
DRY AIR IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NY THIS EVENING AS WE ARE
FINALLY STARTING TO BE POSITIONED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPR LVL
TROUGH. DEW POINTS OVER FAR WESTERN NY ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
AND EXPECT THE DEW POINTS OVER OUR CWA TO FALL INTO THIS RANGE AS
WELL. AS THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EXPECT WHAT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE LINGERING TO DISSIPATE. AND EXPECT CLOUD
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TO BECOME LESS AND LESS.

IT WILL BECOME QUITE CHILLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPR 40S. AS THE SKIES CLEAR OUT VALLEY FOG
MAY DEVELOP... AND IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE SKY BECOMES CLEAR FOR A
FEW HOURS OR MORE MAY SEE SOME DENSE FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
410 PM MON UPDATE... THE NEXT FEW DAYS (TUE-THU) WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...JUST AHD OF A LINGERING
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY RGNS.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY BLDG
EWD FROM THE UPR LAKES RGN AND SWRN ONT.

IN GENERAL...THIS MEANS DRY WX MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WIDELY SEPARATED SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ARND...MOSTLY
WED AND THU...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO NY/PA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COOL FOR THE END OF JULY (HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S)...THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY MODERATE TWDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME BRIEF IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE ELEVATED SITES OF
KITH/KBGM, WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KAVP NEXT FEW
HOURS. CONFIDENCE NOT THAT GREAT BASED ON RECENT IMPROVEMENT BUT
STILL HIGH ENOUGH FOR A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 10Z. OTHERWISE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST EXTENSIVE CUMULUS COVERAGE TODAY
WILL BE FROM KITH SOUTH, WITH A BETTER SHOT AT SUN COMING AT SYR
AND RME. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BY EARLY TONIGHT.


WINDS OUT OF THE WNW TODAY, BECOMING NEAR CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 290532
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
132 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND
REMAINS ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
LATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FCST UPDATED MAINLY FOR MARINE HEADLINES. NO MAJOR CHANGES.

SHOWER THREAT HAS COME TO AN END WILL LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
AND WITH DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. GENERALLY
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN MID-DECK WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AROUND 06-08Z AS TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH...THEN
CLEARING SKIES IN ITS WAKE.

GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE OVERNIGHT.

LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT.

VFR. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. GUSTS SHOULD ONLY REMAIN IN
THE NYC TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 8-9Z.

FOR TUESDAY...NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT BACKS W TO SW IN THE AFTN.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR AT LEAST KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG. VFR
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AROUND
DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY THROUGH TUES MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE MAY BE ABOUT 1
FT TOO HIGH.

SUB-SCA SEAS EXPECTED BY TUE AFT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KALY 290520
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
120 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONG
SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER MAINE AND IS BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD BY
THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SKIES . ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. UPDATED WINDS USING
A BLEND FROM THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH A COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF THE AREA...SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE REGION THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVER CANADA. FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE VFR FOR THE VALLEY TAF SITES...BUT REMAIN IFR AT KPSF
THANKS TO LINGERING LOW STRATUS.  AS LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING AT KPSF BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. W-NW WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS...WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5
KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO DISSIPATE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALL FLOOD WARNINGS EXPIRED OR WHERE CANCELLED EARLIER.

EVEN THOUGH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE...THE REGION
WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH A LARGE CLOSED LOW WOBBLING
OVER EASTERN CANADA THIS WEEK. PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL
ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW TRIGGERING CONVECTION WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 290520
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
120 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONG
SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER MAINE AND IS BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD BY
THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SKIES . ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. UPDATED WINDS USING
A BLEND FROM THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH A COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF THE AREA...SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE REGION THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVER CANADA. FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE VFR FOR THE VALLEY TAF SITES...BUT REMAIN IFR AT KPSF
THANKS TO LINGERING LOW STRATUS.  AS LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING AT KPSF BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. W-NW WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS...WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5
KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO DISSIPATE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALL FLOOD WARNINGS EXPIRED OR WHERE CANCELLED EARLIER.

EVEN THOUGH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE...THE REGION
WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH A LARGE CLOSED LOW WOBBLING
OVER EASTERN CANADA THIS WEEK. PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL
ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW TRIGGERING CONVECTION WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 290515
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE RAPIDLY DRYING UP
WITH CLEARING SKIES ALREADING INTO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP AROUND
BY DAY BREAK. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A FEW SPOT
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 290515
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE RAPIDLY DRYING UP
WITH CLEARING SKIES ALREADING INTO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP AROUND
BY DAY BREAK. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A FEW SPOT
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER









000
FXUS61 KOKX 290409
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1209 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND
REMAINS ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
LATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FCST UPDATED MAINLY FOR MARINE HEADLINES. NO MAJOR CHANGES.

SHOWER THREAT HAS COME TO AN END WILL LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
AND WITH DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. GENERALLY
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN MID-DECK WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AROUND 06-08Z AS TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH...THEN
CLEARING SKIES IN ITS WAKE.

GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE OVERNIGHT.

LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OFF.

FOR TUESDAY...NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT BACKS W TO SW IN THE AFTN.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR AT LEAST KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AROUND
DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY THROUGH TUES MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE MAY BE ABOUT 1
FT TOO HIGH.

SUB-SCA SEAS EXPECTED BY TUE AFT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...JMC/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 290409
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1209 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND
REMAINS ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
LATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FCST UPDATED MAINLY FOR MARINE HEADLINES. NO MAJOR CHANGES.

SHOWER THREAT HAS COME TO AN END WILL LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
AND WITH DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. GENERALLY
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN MID-DECK WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AROUND 06-08Z AS TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH...THEN
CLEARING SKIES IN ITS WAKE.

GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE OVERNIGHT.

LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OFF.

FOR TUESDAY...NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT BACKS W TO SW IN THE AFTN.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR AT LEAST KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AROUND
DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY THROUGH TUES MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE MAY BE ABOUT 1
FT TOO HIGH.

SUB-SCA SEAS EXPECTED BY TUE AFT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...JMC/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KBUF 290254
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1054 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DEPART THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET
UP THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A FEW DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING OVER THE
AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
VALLEY FOG.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/RGEM GUIDANCE FORECAST A VORTICITY
MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE IMPULSE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPULSES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A WEAKER
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS.
ALL AND ALL...SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...WITH QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL) AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPEN UP TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
WISE...AS THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND 500H HEIGHTS RISE SO WILL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND AT 03Z. CIGS HAVE CONTINUED TO
RISE THIS EVENING WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT 4K-6K FEET. MOST CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING CIGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. SCATTERED CU WITH 4-5K FT
BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE LIFT NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE AREA.

A WEAKER FLOW IS FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/TMA
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/TMA
MARINE...FRANKLIN/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 290254
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1054 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DEPART THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET
UP THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A FEW DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING OVER THE
AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
VALLEY FOG.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/RGEM GUIDANCE FORECAST A VORTICITY
MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE IMPULSE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPULSES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A WEAKER
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS.
ALL AND ALL...SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...WITH QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL) AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPEN UP TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
WISE...AS THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND 500H HEIGHTS RISE SO WILL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND AT 03Z. CIGS HAVE CONTINUED TO
RISE THIS EVENING WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT 4K-6K FEET. MOST CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING CIGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. SCATTERED CU WITH 4-5K FT
BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE LIFT NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE AREA.

A WEAKER FLOW IS FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/TMA
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/TMA
MARINE...FRANKLIN/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KOKX 290248
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1048 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND
REMAINS ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
LATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER THREAT HAS COME TO AN END WILL LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
AND WITH DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. GENERALLY
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN MID-DECK WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AROUND 06-08Z AS TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH...THEN
CLEARING SKIES IN ITS WAKE.

GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE OVERNIGHT.

LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OFF.

FOR TUESDAY...NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT BACKS W TO SW IN THE AFTN.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR AT LEAST KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH
AROUND DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY THROUGH TUES MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE MAY BE
ABOUT 1 FT TOO HIGH.

SUB-SCA SEAS EXPECTED BY TUE AFT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KOKX 290248
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1048 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND
REMAINS ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
LATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER THREAT HAS COME TO AN END WILL LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
AND WITH DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. GENERALLY
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN MID-DECK WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AROUND 06-08Z AS TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH...THEN
CLEARING SKIES IN ITS WAKE.

GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE OVERNIGHT.

LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OFF.

FOR TUESDAY...NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT BACKS W TO SW IN THE AFTN.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE FOR AT LEAST KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH
AROUND DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY THROUGH TUES MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE MAY BE
ABOUT 1 FT TOO HIGH.

SUB-SCA SEAS EXPECTED BY TUE AFT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 290247
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1047 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...HIT
AND MISS AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...AS UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1040 PM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. MASSAGED TEMPS AS THEY ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW
50S ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT AS THE DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION... THEY WILL CONTINUE TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES.
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SHOULD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DISSIPATE AS WELL.
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL GOOD.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...
DRY AIR IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NY THIS EVENING AS WE ARE
FINALLY STARTING TO BE POSITIONED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPR LVL
TROUGH. DEW POINTS OVER FAR WESTERN NY ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
AND EXPECT THE DEW POINTS OVER OUR CWA TO FALL INTO THIS RANGE AS
WELL. AS THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EXPECT WHAT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE LINGERING TO DISSIPATE. AND EXPECT CLOUD
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TO BECOME LESS AND LESS.

IT WILL BECOME QUITE CHILLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPR 40S. AS THE SKIES CLEAR OUT VALLEY FOG
MAY DEVELOP... AND IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE SKY BECOMES CLEAR FOR A
FEW HOURS OR MORE MAY SEE SOME DENSE FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
410 PM MON UPDATE... THE NEXT FEW DAYS (TUE-THU) WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...JUST AHD OF A LINGERING
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY RGNS.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY BLDG
EWD FROM THE UPR LAKES RGN AND SWRN ONT.

IN GENERAL...THIS MEANS DRY WX MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WIDELY SEPARATED SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ARND...MOSTLY
WED AND THU...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO NY/PA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COOL FOR THE END OF JULY (HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S)...THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY MODERATE TWDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PULLING INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING THE
SHOWERS TO AN END BY 06Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT SYR AND RME
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LEAVING VFR IN ITS WAKE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, IFR EXPECTED ACROSS ITH AND ELM THROUGH 06Z.
AFTER THIS TIME, CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LEAVING IFR RESTRICTIONS
IN FOG THROUGH 12Z BEFORE IMPROVING. AT BGM AND AVP, EXPECT JUST
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.

AFTER 15Z TUESDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP
IN LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS OUT OF THE WNW FROM 5-10KTS NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 290247
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1047 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...HIT
AND MISS AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...AS UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1040 PM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. MASSAGED TEMPS AS THEY ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW
50S ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT AS THE DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION... THEY WILL CONTINUE TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES.
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SHOULD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DISSIPATE AS WELL.
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL GOOD.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...
DRY AIR IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NY THIS EVENING AS WE ARE
FINALLY STARTING TO BE POSITIONED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPR LVL
TROUGH. DEW POINTS OVER FAR WESTERN NY ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
AND EXPECT THE DEW POINTS OVER OUR CWA TO FALL INTO THIS RANGE AS
WELL. AS THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EXPECT WHAT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE LINGERING TO DISSIPATE. AND EXPECT CLOUD
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TO BECOME LESS AND LESS.

IT WILL BECOME QUITE CHILLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPR 40S. AS THE SKIES CLEAR OUT VALLEY FOG
MAY DEVELOP... AND IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE SKY BECOMES CLEAR FOR A
FEW HOURS OR MORE MAY SEE SOME DENSE FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
410 PM MON UPDATE... THE NEXT FEW DAYS (TUE-THU) WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...JUST AHD OF A LINGERING
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY RGNS.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY BLDG
EWD FROM THE UPR LAKES RGN AND SWRN ONT.

IN GENERAL...THIS MEANS DRY WX MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WIDELY SEPARATED SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ARND...MOSTLY
WED AND THU...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO NY/PA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COOL FOR THE END OF JULY (HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S)...THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY MODERATE TWDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PULLING INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING THE
SHOWERS TO AN END BY 06Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT SYR AND RME
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LEAVING VFR IN ITS WAKE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, IFR EXPECTED ACROSS ITH AND ELM THROUGH 06Z.
AFTER THIS TIME, CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LEAVING IFR RESTRICTIONS
IN FOG THROUGH 12Z BEFORE IMPROVING. AT BGM AND AVP, EXPECT JUST
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.

AFTER 15Z TUESDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP
IN LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS OUT OF THE WNW FROM 5-10KTS NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVN









000
FXUS61 KBTV 290239
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1039 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING UNDER BROAD DEFORMATION BAND ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTH/NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. HEAVIEST RAINS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE DUE TO NORTH WINDS AND BLOCKED FLOW
(FROUDE NUMBERS LESS THAN 0.25) HAS LED TO LOCAL ENHANCEMENT
THERE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE WEAKENED OR MOVED EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF WEAKENING RAIN SHIELD NOW MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WE SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW CONTINUING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND FROUDE
NUMBERS AROUND 0.5 THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...A FEW LINGERING
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL DRYING AND CLEARING TREND
ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A
FEW SPOT UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER







000
FXUS61 KBTV 290239
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1039 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING UNDER BROAD DEFORMATION BAND ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTH/NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. HEAVIEST RAINS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE DUE TO NORTH WINDS AND BLOCKED FLOW
(FROUDE NUMBERS LESS THAN 0.25) HAS LED TO LOCAL ENHANCEMENT
THERE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE WEAKENED OR MOVED EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF WEAKENING RAIN SHIELD NOW MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WE SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW CONTINUING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND FROUDE
NUMBERS AROUND 0.5 THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...A FEW LINGERING
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL DRYING AND CLEARING TREND
ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A
FEW SPOT UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER






000
FXUS61 KBTV 290238
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING UNDER BROAD DEFORMATION BAND ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTH/NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. HEAVIEST RAINS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE DUE TO NORTH WINDS AND BLOCKED FLOW
(FROUDE NUMBERS LESS THAN 0.25) HAVE LED TO LOCAL ENHANCEMENT
THERE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE WEAKENED OR MOVED EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF WEAKENING RAIN SHIELD NOW MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WE SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW CONTINUING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND FROUDE
NUMBERS AROUND 0.5 THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...A FEW LINGERING
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL DRYING AND CLEARING TREND
ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A
FEW SPOT UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 290238
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING UNDER BROAD DEFORMATION BAND ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTH/NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. HEAVIEST RAINS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE DUE TO NORTH WINDS AND BLOCKED FLOW
(FROUDE NUMBERS LESS THAN 0.25) HAVE LED TO LOCAL ENHANCEMENT
THERE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE WEAKENED OR MOVED EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF WEAKENING RAIN SHIELD NOW MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WE SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW CONTINUING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND FROUDE
NUMBERS AROUND 0.5 THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...A FEW LINGERING
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL DRYING AND CLEARING TREND
ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A
FEW SPOT UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 290238
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING UNDER BROAD DEFORMATION BAND ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTH/NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. HEAVIEST RAINS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE DUE TO NORTH WINDS AND BLOCKED FLOW
(FROUDE NUMBERS LESS THAN 0.25) HAVE LED TO LOCAL ENHANCEMENT
THERE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE WEAKENED OR MOVED EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF WEAKENING RAIN SHIELD NOW MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WE SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW CONTINUING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND FROUDE
NUMBERS AROUND 0.5 THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...A FEW LINGERING
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL DRYING AND CLEARING TREND
ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A
FEW SPOT UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 290238
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING UNDER BROAD DEFORMATION BAND ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTH/NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. HEAVIEST RAINS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE DUE TO NORTH WINDS AND BLOCKED FLOW
(FROUDE NUMBERS LESS THAN 0.25) HAVE LED TO LOCAL ENHANCEMENT
THERE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE WEAKENED OR MOVED EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF WEAKENING RAIN SHIELD NOW MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WE SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW CONTINUING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND FROUDE
NUMBERS AROUND 0.5 THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...A FEW LINGERING
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL DRYING AND CLEARING TREND
ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A
FEW SPOT UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER








000
FXUS61 KALY 290202
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO
TRACK FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.  AS SEEN IN THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
KBUF AND HERE...THE INVERSION NEAR H750 MAY INHIBIT TOO MUCH
CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS WE WILL DELAY THIS PROGRESS UNTIL VERY LATE
TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...JUST MODIFIED HOURLY VALUES AND POPS AS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO SOME IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN AND LOWER STRATUS MAY
DEVELOP.  THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TRACK FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.  A
WEST-NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS
10KTS OR LESS.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING /MAY BE A LITTLE DELAYED
AT KPSF WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS/ AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
REPORTS AND RIVER GAGE AT ROCKINGHAM IN NORTHERN WINDHAM COUNTY
EXPERIENCED FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING.  COMBINATION OF TRAINING
CONVECTION AND NEARLY SATURATED GROUND RESULTED IN THE RAPID RISE OF
WATER.  AS OF 10 PM...PER COORDINATION AND RIVER GAGE...THE RIVER
LEVEL HAS JUST DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE.  HOWEVER...WATER LEVELS
REMAIN ELEVATED AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A
LITTLE LONGER.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS/BGM
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS/BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 290202
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO
TRACK FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.  AS SEEN IN THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
KBUF AND HERE...THE INVERSION NEAR H750 MAY INHIBIT TOO MUCH
CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS WE WILL DELAY THIS PROGRESS UNTIL VERY LATE
TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...JUST MODIFIED HOURLY VALUES AND POPS AS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO SOME IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN AND LOWER STRATUS MAY
DEVELOP.  THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TRACK FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.  A
WEST-NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS
10KTS OR LESS.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING /MAY BE A LITTLE DELAYED
AT KPSF WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS/ AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
REPORTS AND RIVER GAGE AT ROCKINGHAM IN NORTHERN WINDHAM COUNTY
EXPERIENCED FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING.  COMBINATION OF TRAINING
CONVECTION AND NEARLY SATURATED GROUND RESULTED IN THE RAPID RISE OF
WATER.  AS OF 10 PM...PER COORDINATION AND RIVER GAGE...THE RIVER
LEVEL HAS JUST DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE.  HOWEVER...WATER LEVELS
REMAIN ELEVATED AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A
LITTLE LONGER.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS/BGM
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS/BGM







000
FXUS61 KOKX 290020 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
819 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER THREAT COMING TO AN END AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST...AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES.

GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR.

WINDS BACKING NW THIS EVENING AND DIMINISHING. GUSTS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT BACKS W TO SW IN THE AFTN.


 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF
FREQUENT GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 02-03Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERLY SWELLS MAY STILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NOTE
THAT WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...









000
FXUS61 KOKX 290020 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
819 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER THREAT COMING TO AN END AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST...AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES.

GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR.

WINDS BACKING NW THIS EVENING AND DIMINISHING. GUSTS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT BACKS W TO SW IN THE AFTN.


 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF
FREQUENT GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 02-03Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERLY SWELLS MAY STILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NOTE
THAT WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...









000
FXUS61 KOKX 290020 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
819 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER THREAT COMING TO AN END AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST...AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES.

GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR.

WINDS BACKING NW THIS EVENING AND DIMINISHING. GUSTS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT BACKS W TO SW IN THE AFTN.


 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF
FREQUENT GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 02-03Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERLY SWELLS MAY STILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NOTE
THAT WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...









000
FXUS61 KOKX 290020 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
819 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER THREAT COMING TO AN END AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST...AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES.

GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR.

WINDS BACKING NW THIS EVENING AND DIMINISHING. GUSTS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT BACKS W TO SW IN THE AFTN.


 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF
FREQUENT GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE VEERED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 02-03Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERLY SWELLS MAY STILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NOTE
THAT WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...









000
FXUS61 KBUF 282356
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
756 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES ITS WAY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING OVER THE AREA.
EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS/VALLEY FOG.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/RGEM GUIDANCE FORECAST A VORTICITY
MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE IMPULSE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPULSES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A WEAKER
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS.
ALL AND ALL...SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...WITH QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL) AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPEN UP TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
WISE...AS THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND 500H HEIGHTS RISE SO WILL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND AT 00Z. CIGS HAVE CONTINUED TO
RISE THIS EVENING WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT 4K-6K FEET. MOST CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING CIGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. SCATTERED CU
WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A WEAKER FLOW IS FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/TMA
MARINE...FRANKLIN/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 282353
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
753 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY. PATCHY HEAVY RAIN MAINLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 20-21Z TIME FRAME AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES INTO NEW ENGLAND. REMAINING FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE
CANCELED.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING
OVER THE AREA.  EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS/VALLEY FOG.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/RGEM GUIDANCE FORECAST A VORTICITY
MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE IMPULSE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPULSES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A WEAKER
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS.
ALL AND ALL...SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...WITH QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL) AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPEN UP TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
WISE...AS THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND 500H HEIGHTS RISE SO WILL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND AT 00Z. CIGS HAVE CONTINUED TO
RISE THIS EVENING WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT 4K-6K FEET. MOST CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING CIGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. SCATTERED CU
WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A WEAKER FLOW IS FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/TMA
MARINE...FRANKLIN/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 282353
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
753 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY. PATCHY HEAVY RAIN MAINLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 20-21Z TIME FRAME AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES INTO NEW ENGLAND. REMAINING FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE
CANCELED.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING
OVER THE AREA.  EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS/VALLEY FOG.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/RGEM GUIDANCE FORECAST A VORTICITY
MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE IMPULSE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPULSES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A WEAKER
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS.
ALL AND ALL...SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...WITH QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL) AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPEN UP TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
WISE...AS THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND 500H HEIGHTS RISE SO WILL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND AT 00Z. CIGS HAVE CONTINUED TO
RISE THIS EVENING WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT 4K-6K FEET. MOST CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING CIGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. SCATTERED CU
WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A WEAKER FLOW IS FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/TMA
MARINE...FRANKLIN/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KOKX 282341
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
741 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER THREAT COMING TO AN END AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST...AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES.

GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR.

WINDS BACKING NW THIS EVENING AND DIMINISHING. GUSTS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT BACKS W TO SW IN THE AFTN.


 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 02-03Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERLY SWELLS MAY STILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NOTE
THAT WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 282341
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
741 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER THREAT COMING TO AN END AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST...AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES.

GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR.

WINDS BACKING NW THIS EVENING AND DIMINISHING. GUSTS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT BACKS W TO SW IN THE AFTN.


 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 02-03Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERLY SWELLS MAY STILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NOTE
THAT WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 282341
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
741 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER THREAT COMING TO AN END AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST...AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES.

GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR.

WINDS BACKING NW THIS EVENING AND DIMINISHING. GUSTS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT BACKS W TO SW IN THE AFTN.


 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 02-03Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERLY SWELLS MAY STILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NOTE
THAT WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 282341
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
741 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER THREAT COMING TO AN END AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST...AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES.

GUSTY WSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

VFR.

WINDS BACKING NW THIS EVENING AND DIMINISHING. GUSTS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...NW FLOW AROUND 10 KT BACKS W TO SW IN THE AFTN.


 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 01-02Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE MORE BACKED BY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES THAN FORECAST BEFORE 02-03Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT
GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERLY SWELLS MAY STILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NOTE
THAT WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 282341
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
741 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...HIT AND MISS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...AS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...
DRY AIR IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NY THIS EVENING AS WE ARE
FINALLY STARTING TO BE POSITIONED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPR
LVL TROUGH. DEW POINTS OVER FAR WESTERN NY ARE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S AND EXPECT THE DEW POINTS OVER OUR CWA TO FALL INTO THIS RANGE
AS WELL. AS THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EXPECT
WHAT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE LINGERING TO DISSIPATE. AND EXPECT CLOUD
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TO BECOME LESS AND LESS.

IT WILL BECOME QUITE CHILLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPR 40S. AS THE SKIES CLEAR OUT VALLEY FOG
MAY DEVELOP... AND IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE SKY BECOMES CLEAR FOR A
FEW HOURS OR MORE MAY SEE SOME DENSE FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
410 PM MON UPDATE... THE NEXT FEW DAYS (TUE-THU) WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...JUST AHD OF A LINGERING
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY RGNS.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY BLDG
EWD FROM THE UPR LAKES RGN AND SWRN ONT.

IN GENERAL...THIS MEANS DRY WX MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WIDELY SEPARATED SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ARND...MOSTLY
WED AND THU...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO NY/PA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COOL FOR THE END OF JULY (HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S)...THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY MODERATE TWDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PULLING INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING THE
SHOWERS TO AN END BY 06Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT SYR AND RME
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LEAVING VFR IN ITS WAKE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, IFR EXPECTED ACROSS ITH AND ELM THROUGH 06Z.
AFTER THIS TIME, CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LEAVING IFR RESTRICTIONS
IN FOG THROUGH 12Z BEFORE IMPROVING. AT BGM AND AVP, EXPECT JUST
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.

AFTER 15Z TUESDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP
IN LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS OUT OF THE WNW FROM 5-10KTS NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 282341
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
741 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...HIT AND MISS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...AS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...
DRY AIR IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NY THIS EVENING AS WE ARE
FINALLY STARTING TO BE POSITIONED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPR
LVL TROUGH. DEW POINTS OVER FAR WESTERN NY ARE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S AND EXPECT THE DEW POINTS OVER OUR CWA TO FALL INTO THIS RANGE
AS WELL. AS THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EXPECT
WHAT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE LINGERING TO DISSIPATE. AND EXPECT CLOUD
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TO BECOME LESS AND LESS.

IT WILL BECOME QUITE CHILLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPR 40S. AS THE SKIES CLEAR OUT VALLEY FOG
MAY DEVELOP... AND IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE SKY BECOMES CLEAR FOR A
FEW HOURS OR MORE MAY SEE SOME DENSE FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
410 PM MON UPDATE... THE NEXT FEW DAYS (TUE-THU) WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...JUST AHD OF A LINGERING
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY RGNS.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY BLDG
EWD FROM THE UPR LAKES RGN AND SWRN ONT.

IN GENERAL...THIS MEANS DRY WX MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WIDELY SEPARATED SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ARND...MOSTLY
WED AND THU...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO NY/PA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COOL FOR THE END OF JULY (HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S)...THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY MODERATE TWDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PULLING INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING THE
SHOWERS TO AN END BY 06Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT SYR AND RME
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LEAVING VFR IN ITS WAKE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, IFR EXPECTED ACROSS ITH AND ELM THROUGH 06Z.
AFTER THIS TIME, CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LEAVING IFR RESTRICTIONS
IN FOG THROUGH 12Z BEFORE IMPROVING. AT BGM AND AVP, EXPECT JUST
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.

AFTER 15Z TUESDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP
IN LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS OUT OF THE WNW FROM 5-10KTS NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 282341
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
741 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...HIT AND MISS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...AS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...
DRY AIR IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NY THIS EVENING AS WE ARE
FINALLY STARTING TO BE POSITIONED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPR
LVL TROUGH. DEW POINTS OVER FAR WESTERN NY ARE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S AND EXPECT THE DEW POINTS OVER OUR CWA TO FALL INTO THIS RANGE
AS WELL. AS THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EXPECT
WHAT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE LINGERING TO DISSIPATE. AND EXPECT CLOUD
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TO BECOME LESS AND LESS.

IT WILL BECOME QUITE CHILLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPR 40S. AS THE SKIES CLEAR OUT VALLEY FOG
MAY DEVELOP... AND IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE SKY BECOMES CLEAR FOR A
FEW HOURS OR MORE MAY SEE SOME DENSE FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
410 PM MON UPDATE... THE NEXT FEW DAYS (TUE-THU) WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...JUST AHD OF A LINGERING
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY RGNS.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY BLDG
EWD FROM THE UPR LAKES RGN AND SWRN ONT.

IN GENERAL...THIS MEANS DRY WX MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WIDELY SEPARATED SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ARND...MOSTLY
WED AND THU...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO NY/PA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COOL FOR THE END OF JULY (HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S)...THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY MODERATE TWDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PULLING INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING THE
SHOWERS TO AN END BY 06Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT SYR AND RME
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LEAVING VFR IN ITS WAKE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, IFR EXPECTED ACROSS ITH AND ELM THROUGH 06Z.
AFTER THIS TIME, CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LEAVING IFR RESTRICTIONS
IN FOG THROUGH 12Z BEFORE IMPROVING. AT BGM AND AVP, EXPECT JUST
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.

AFTER 15Z TUESDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP
IN LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS OUT OF THE WNW FROM 5-10KTS NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 282341
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
741 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...HIT AND MISS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...AS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...
DRY AIR IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NY THIS EVENING AS WE ARE
FINALLY STARTING TO BE POSITIONED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPR
LVL TROUGH. DEW POINTS OVER FAR WESTERN NY ARE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S AND EXPECT THE DEW POINTS OVER OUR CWA TO FALL INTO THIS RANGE
AS WELL. AS THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EXPECT
WHAT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE LINGERING TO DISSIPATE. AND EXPECT CLOUD
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TO BECOME LESS AND LESS.

IT WILL BECOME QUITE CHILLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPR 40S. AS THE SKIES CLEAR OUT VALLEY FOG
MAY DEVELOP... AND IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE SKY BECOMES CLEAR FOR A
FEW HOURS OR MORE MAY SEE SOME DENSE FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
410 PM MON UPDATE... THE NEXT FEW DAYS (TUE-THU) WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...JUST AHD OF A LINGERING
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY RGNS.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY BLDG
EWD FROM THE UPR LAKES RGN AND SWRN ONT.

IN GENERAL...THIS MEANS DRY WX MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WIDELY SEPARATED SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ARND...MOSTLY
WED AND THU...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO NY/PA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COOL FOR THE END OF JULY (HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S)...THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY MODERATE TWDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PULLING INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING THE
SHOWERS TO AN END BY 06Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT SYR AND RME
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LEAVING VFR IN ITS WAKE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, IFR EXPECTED ACROSS ITH AND ELM THROUGH 06Z.
AFTER THIS TIME, CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LEAVING IFR RESTRICTIONS
IN FOG THROUGH 12Z BEFORE IMPROVING. AT BGM AND AVP, EXPECT JUST
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.

AFTER 15Z TUESDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP
IN LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS OUT OF THE WNW FROM 5-10KTS NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVN







000
FXUS61 KBUF 282337
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
737 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY. PATCHY HEAVY RAIN MAINLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 20-21Z TIME FRAME AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES INTO NEW ENGLAND. REMAINING FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE
CANCELED.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING
OVER THE AREA.  EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS/VALLEY FOG.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/RGEM GUIDANCE FORECAST A VORTICITY
MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE IMPULSE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPULSES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A WEAKER
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS.
ALL AND ALL...SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...WITH QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL) AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPEN UP TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
WISE...AS THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND 500H HEIGHTS RISE SO WILL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND AT 00Z. CIGS HAVE CONTINUED TO
RISE THIS EVENING WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT 4K-6K FEET. MOST CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING CIGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. SCATTERED CU
WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A WEAKER FLOW IS FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/TMA
MARINE...FRANKLIN/TMA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 282337
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
737 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY. PATCHY HEAVY RAIN MAINLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 20-21Z TIME FRAME AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES INTO NEW ENGLAND. REMAINING FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE
CANCELED.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING
OVER THE AREA.  EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS/VALLEY FOG.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/RGEM GUIDANCE FORECAST A VORTICITY
MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE IMPULSE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPULSES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A WEAKER
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS.
ALL AND ALL...SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...WITH QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL) AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPEN UP TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
WISE...AS THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND 500H HEIGHTS RISE SO WILL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND AT 00Z. CIGS HAVE CONTINUED TO
RISE THIS EVENING WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT 4K-6K FEET. MOST CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING CIGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. SCATTERED CU
WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A WEAKER FLOW IS FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/TMA
MARINE...FRANKLIN/TMA





000
FXUS61 KBGM 282331
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
731 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...HIT AND MISS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...AS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
4 PM MON UPDATE... THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS FINALLY OPENING
UP LATE THIS AFTN AND MOVING ENEWD INTO NEW ENG. AS SUCH...THE
HVYR RAINS ON THE DEFORMATION SIDE OF THE LOW HAVE SUBSIDED IN
CNY...WITH JUST LGT-MDT LEFTOVER SHWRS. A CONVECTIVE LN ACRS NE PA
IS TRANSLATING SEWD...AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE FA BY 21-23Z. FOR
THESE REASONS...THE FF WATCH ACRS PTNS OF CNY HAS BEEN CANCELLED EARLY.

AFTER ANY RESIDUAL SHWRS END EARLY THIS EVE...THE REST OF THE NGT
SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE...WITH CLDNS EARLY ON GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE. THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING WILL BE KEY TO HOW
MUCH...IF ANY VLY FOG FORMS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S-MID 50S MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
410 PM MON UPDATE... THE NEXT FEW DAYS (TUE-THU) WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...JUST AHD OF A LINGERING
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY RGNS.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY BLDG
EWD FROM THE UPR LAKES RGN AND SWRN ONT.

IN GENERAL...THIS MEANS DRY WX MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WIDELY SEPARATED SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ARND...MOSTLY
WED AND THU...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO NY/PA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COOL FOR THE END OF JULY (HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S)...THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY MODERATE TWDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PULLING INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING THE
SHOWERS TO AN END BY 06Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT SYR AND RME
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LEAVING VFR IN ITS WAKE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, IFR EXPECTED ACROSS ITH AND ELM THROUGH 06Z.
AFTER THIS TIME, CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LEAVING IFR RESTRICTIONS
IN FOG THROUGH 12Z BEFORE IMPROVING. AT BGM AND AVP, EXPECT JUST
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.

AFTER 15Z TUESDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP
IN LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS OUT OF THE WNW FROM 5-10KTS NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVN




000
FXUS61 KBGM 282331
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
731 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...HIT AND MISS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...AS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
4 PM MON UPDATE... THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS FINALLY OPENING
UP LATE THIS AFTN AND MOVING ENEWD INTO NEW ENG. AS SUCH...THE
HVYR RAINS ON THE DEFORMATION SIDE OF THE LOW HAVE SUBSIDED IN
CNY...WITH JUST LGT-MDT LEFTOVER SHWRS. A CONVECTIVE LN ACRS NE PA
IS TRANSLATING SEWD...AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE FA BY 21-23Z. FOR
THESE REASONS...THE FF WATCH ACRS PTNS OF CNY HAS BEEN CANCELLED EARLY.

AFTER ANY RESIDUAL SHWRS END EARLY THIS EVE...THE REST OF THE NGT
SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE...WITH CLDNS EARLY ON GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE. THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING WILL BE KEY TO HOW
MUCH...IF ANY VLY FOG FORMS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S-MID 50S MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
410 PM MON UPDATE... THE NEXT FEW DAYS (TUE-THU) WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...JUST AHD OF A LINGERING
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY RGNS.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY BLDG
EWD FROM THE UPR LAKES RGN AND SWRN ONT.

IN GENERAL...THIS MEANS DRY WX MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WIDELY SEPARATED SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ARND...MOSTLY
WED AND THU...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO NY/PA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COOL FOR THE END OF JULY (HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S)...THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY MODERATE TWDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PULLING INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING THE
SHOWERS TO AN END BY 06Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT SYR AND RME
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LEAVING VFR IN ITS WAKE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, IFR EXPECTED ACROSS ITH AND ELM THROUGH 06Z.
AFTER THIS TIME, CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LEAVING IFR RESTRICTIONS
IN FOG THROUGH 12Z BEFORE IMPROVING. AT BGM AND AVP, EXPECT JUST
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.

AFTER 15Z TUESDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP
IN LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS OUT OF THE WNW FROM 5-10KTS NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVN





000
FXUS61 KBTV 282327
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS NORTHERN NY/VT AND INCREASE WINDS ACRS THE CPV.
SFC LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR EXETER NH WL CONT TO MOVE QUICKLY NE
INTO EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT...WHILE POTENT 5H VORT AND BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION ZN DEVELOPS FROM WESTERN NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLW DOWN THE CPV WL
RESULT IN CONTINUED RAINFALL ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO THE CPV
AND WESTERN SLOPES THRU 06Z TONIGHT. KBTV HAS MEASURED 0.40 LAST
HR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. KCXX VAD SHOWS 925MB WINDS OF 30
KNOTS FROM THE NORTH...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL CONVERGENCE
ACRS THE CPV. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.75 WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE
CPV/WESTERN SLOPES THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAINFALL INTENSITY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY FLOOD RELATED PROBLEMS. MEANWHILE...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND ULVL SUPPORT WL SLOWLY WEAKEN AFT 06Z AND
PRECIP WL BECOME SCATTERED. CONTINUED TO MENTION 100% POPS ACRS
THE NORTHERN CWA WITH CHC/LOW LIKELY SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SCHC FOR
THUNDER THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL NOTING A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKE ACRS THIS REGION.

JUST LIKE WINTER STORMS A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE SFC LOW
TRACK...RESULTS IN A WIDE RANGE OF WX. FOR THIS AFTN THE SFC LOW
JUMPED TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND...AND RESULTED IN MUCH LESS INSTABILITY ACRS OUR CWA. A
FURTHER NORTH TRACK WOULD HAVE PLACED OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. THEREFORE WITH CAPE VALUES ONLY BTWN 500
AND 800 J/KG...AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOL NORTHERLY WINDS...THE
THREAT FOR SVR STORMS HAS ENDED ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE MENTIONED
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCHC FOR STORMS THRU 00Z THIS
EVENING...THEN REMOVED MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP WL BECOME TRRN DRIVEN
BY 03Z TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ACRS THE EASTERN
DACKS...NORTHERN CPV...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS.

THINKING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WL DECREASE WITH
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...AND WEAKER RAINFALL RATES.
SOUTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY WITH STORM TOTAL PRECIP IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES. ALL IS COVERED IN CRNT WARNING STATEMENT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 282327
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS NORTHERN NY/VT AND INCREASE WINDS ACRS THE CPV.
SFC LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR EXETER NH WL CONT TO MOVE QUICKLY NE
INTO EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT...WHILE POTENT 5H VORT AND BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION ZN DEVELOPS FROM WESTERN NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLW DOWN THE CPV WL
RESULT IN CONTINUED RAINFALL ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO THE CPV
AND WESTERN SLOPES THRU 06Z TONIGHT. KBTV HAS MEASURED 0.40 LAST
HR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. KCXX VAD SHOWS 925MB WINDS OF 30
KNOTS FROM THE NORTH...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL CONVERGENCE
ACRS THE CPV. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.75 WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE
CPV/WESTERN SLOPES THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAINFALL INTENSITY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY FLOOD RELATED PROBLEMS. MEANWHILE...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND ULVL SUPPORT WL SLOWLY WEAKEN AFT 06Z AND
PRECIP WL BECOME SCATTERED. CONTINUED TO MENTION 100% POPS ACRS
THE NORTHERN CWA WITH CHC/LOW LIKELY SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SCHC FOR
THUNDER THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL NOTING A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKE ACRS THIS REGION.

JUST LIKE WINTER STORMS A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE SFC LOW
TRACK...RESULTS IN A WIDE RANGE OF WX. FOR THIS AFTN THE SFC LOW
JUMPED TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND...AND RESULTED IN MUCH LESS INSTABILITY ACRS OUR CWA. A
FURTHER NORTH TRACK WOULD HAVE PLACED OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. THEREFORE WITH CAPE VALUES ONLY BTWN 500
AND 800 J/KG...AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOL NORTHERLY WINDS...THE
THREAT FOR SVR STORMS HAS ENDED ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE MENTIONED
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCHC FOR STORMS THRU 00Z THIS
EVENING...THEN REMOVED MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP WL BECOME TRRN DRIVEN
BY 03Z TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ACRS THE EASTERN
DACKS...NORTHERN CPV...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS.

THINKING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WL DECREASE WITH
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...AND WEAKER RAINFALL RATES.
SOUTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY WITH STORM TOTAL PRECIP IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES. ALL IS COVERED IN CRNT WARNING STATEMENT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER







000
FXUS61 KBTV 282254
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
654 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS NORTHERN NY/VT AND INCREASE WINDS ACRS THE CPV.
SFC LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR EXETER NH WL CONT TO MOVE QUICKLY NE
INTO EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT...WHILE POTENT 5H VORT AND BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION ZN DEVELOPS FROM WESTERN NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLW DOWN THE CPV WL
RESULT IN CONTINUED RAINFALL ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO THE CPV
AND WESTERN SLOPES THRU 06Z TONIGHT. KBTV HAS MEASURED 0.40 LAST
HR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. KCXX VAD SHOWS 925MB WINDS OF 30
KNOTS FROM THE NORTH...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL CONVERGENCE
ACRS THE CPV. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.75 WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE
CPV/WESTERN SLOPES THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAINFALL INTENSITY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY FLOOD RELATED PROBLEMS. MEANWHILE...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND ULVL SUPPORT WL SLOWLY WEAKEN AFT 06Z AND
PRECIP WL BECOME SCATTERED. CONTINUED TO MENTION 100% POPS ACRS
THE NORTHERN CWA WITH CHC/LOW LIKELY SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SCHC FOR
THUNDER THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL NOTING A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKE ACRS THIS REGION.

JUST LIKE WINTER STORMS A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE SFC LOW
TRACK...RESULTS IN A WIDE RANGE OF WX. FOR THIS AFTN THE SFC LOW
JUMPED TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND...AND RESULTED IN MUCH LESS INSTABILITY ACRS OUR CWA. A
FURTHER NORTH TRACK WOULD HAVE PLACED OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. THEREFORE WITH CAPE VALUES ONLY BTWN 500
AND 800 J/KG...AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOL NORTHERLY WINDS...THE
THREAT FOR SVR STORMS HAS ENDED ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE MENTIONED
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCHC FOR STORMS THRU 00Z THIS
EVENING...THEN REMOVED MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP WL BECOME TRRN DRIVEN
BY 03Z TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ACRS THE EASTERN
DACKS...NORTHERN CPV...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS.

THINKING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WL DECREASE WITH
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...AND WEAKER RAINFALL RATES.
SOUTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY WITH STORM TOTAL PRECIP IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES. ALL IS COVERED IN CRNT WARNING STATEMENT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 282254
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
654 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS NORTHERN NY/VT AND INCREASE WINDS ACRS THE CPV.
SFC LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR EXETER NH WL CONT TO MOVE QUICKLY NE
INTO EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT...WHILE POTENT 5H VORT AND BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION ZN DEVELOPS FROM WESTERN NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLW DOWN THE CPV WL
RESULT IN CONTINUED RAINFALL ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO THE CPV
AND WESTERN SLOPES THRU 06Z TONIGHT. KBTV HAS MEASURED 0.40 LAST
HR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. KCXX VAD SHOWS 925MB WINDS OF 30
KNOTS FROM THE NORTH...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL CONVERGENCE
ACRS THE CPV. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.75 WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE
CPV/WESTERN SLOPES THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAINFALL INTENSITY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY FLOOD RELATED PROBLEMS. MEANWHILE...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND ULVL SUPPORT WL SLOWLY WEAKEN AFT 06Z AND
PRECIP WL BECOME SCATTERED. CONTINUED TO MENTION 100% POPS ACRS
THE NORTHERN CWA WITH CHC/LOW LIKELY SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SCHC FOR
THUNDER THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL NOTING A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKE ACRS THIS REGION.

JUST LIKE WINTER STORMS A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE SFC LOW
TRACK...RESULTS IN A WIDE RANGE OF WX. FOR THIS AFTN THE SFC LOW
JUMPED TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND...AND RESULTED IN MUCH LESS INSTABILITY ACRS OUR CWA. A
FURTHER NORTH TRACK WOULD HAVE PLACED OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. THEREFORE WITH CAPE VALUES ONLY BTWN 500
AND 800 J/KG...AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOL NORTHERLY WINDS...THE
THREAT FOR SVR STORMS HAS ENDED ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE MENTIONED
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCHC FOR STORMS THRU 00Z THIS
EVENING...THEN REMOVED MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP WL BECOME TRRN DRIVEN
BY 03Z TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ACRS THE EASTERN
DACKS...NORTHERN CPV...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS.

THINKING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WL DECREASE WITH
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...AND WEAKER RAINFALL RATES.
SOUTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY WITH STORM TOTAL PRECIP IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES. ALL IS COVERED IN CRNT WARNING STATEMENT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER










000
FXUS61 KALY 282140
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
540 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLED. RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDER STILL IN PARTS OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
SPINNING EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM. CURRENT FORECAST
STILL REFLECTS CURRENT TRENDS SO VERY LITTLE TO ADJUST THROUGH
THIS EVENING EXCEPT TO TAKE OUT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY
RAIN WORDING.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 282133
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
533 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 522 PM EDT MONDAY...JUST LIKE WINTER STORMS A SLIGHT SHIFT
IN THE SFC LOW TRACK...RESULTS IN A WIDE RANGE OF WX. FOR THIS
AFTN THE SFC LOW JUMPED TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND RESULTED IN MUCH LESS
INSTABILITY ACRS OUR CWA. A FURTHER NORTH TRACK WOULD HAVE PLACED
OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. THEREFORE
WITH CAPE VALUES ONLY BTWN 500 AND 800 J/KG...AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND COOL NORTHERLY WINDS...THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS HAS ENDED
ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE MENTIONED OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCHC FOR
STORMS THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...THEN REMOVED MENTION OF CONVECTION
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP WL
BECOME TRRN DRIVEN BY 03Z TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ACRS THE
EASTERN DACKS...NORTHERN CPV...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS.

THINKING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WL DECREASE WITH
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...AND WEAKER RAINFALL RATES.
SOUTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY WITH STORM TOTAL PRECIP IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES. ALL IS COVERED IN CRNT WARNING STATEMENT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER














000
FXUS61 KBTV 282133
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
533 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 522 PM EDT MONDAY...JUST LIKE WINTER STORMS A SLIGHT SHIFT
IN THE SFC LOW TRACK...RESULTS IN A WIDE RANGE OF WX. FOR THIS
AFTN THE SFC LOW JUMPED TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND RESULTED IN MUCH LESS
INSTABILITY ACRS OUR CWA. A FURTHER NORTH TRACK WOULD HAVE PLACED
OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. THEREFORE
WITH CAPE VALUES ONLY BTWN 500 AND 800 J/KG...AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND COOL NORTHERLY WINDS...THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS HAS ENDED
ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE MENTIONED OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCHC FOR
STORMS THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...THEN REMOVED MENTION OF CONVECTION
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP WL
BECOME TRRN DRIVEN BY 03Z TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ACRS THE
EASTERN DACKS...NORTHERN CPV...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS.

THINKING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WL DECREASE WITH
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...AND WEAKER RAINFALL RATES.
SOUTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY WITH STORM TOTAL PRECIP IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES. ALL IS COVERED IN CRNT WARNING STATEMENT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER













000
FXUS61 KBUF 282112
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
512 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY. PATCHY HEAVY RAIN MAINLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 20-21Z TIME FRAME AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES INTO NEW ENGLAND. REMAINING FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE
CANCELED.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING
OVER THE AREA.  EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS/VALLEY FOG.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/RGEM GUIDANCE FORECAST A VORTICITY
MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE IMPULSE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPULSES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A WEAKER
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS.
ALL AND ALL...SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...WITH QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL) AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPEN UP TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
WISE...AS THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND 500H HEIGHTS RISE SO WILL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AT 21Z. WIDESPREAD CIGS
AOB 2K FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH VSBYS 2-4SM IN RA EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD...CIGS WILL RISE
TO 4-5K FT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING... AND SHOULD LAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BRING CIGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. SCATTERED CU WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 25 KNOTS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY
WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
15 TO 25 KNOTS...AND AROUND 30 KNOTS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WILL
DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/TMA
MARINE...FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 282112
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
512 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY. PATCHY HEAVY RAIN MAINLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 20-21Z TIME FRAME AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES INTO NEW ENGLAND. REMAINING FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE
CANCELED.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING
OVER THE AREA.  EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS/VALLEY FOG.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/RGEM GUIDANCE FORECAST A VORTICITY
MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE IMPULSE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPULSES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A WEAKER
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS.
ALL AND ALL...SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...WITH QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL) AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPEN UP TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
WISE...AS THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND 500H HEIGHTS RISE SO WILL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AT 21Z. WIDESPREAD CIGS
AOB 2K FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH VSBYS 2-4SM IN RA EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD...CIGS WILL RISE
TO 4-5K FT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING... AND SHOULD LAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BRING CIGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. SCATTERED CU WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 25 KNOTS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY
WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
15 TO 25 KNOTS...AND AROUND 30 KNOTS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WILL
DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/TMA
MARINE...FRANKLIN





000
FXUS61 KOKX 282045
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
445 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY FROM
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NORTH OF NEW YORK CITY/LONG ISLAND THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF MAINLY SHOWERS FROM ALBANY NY
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR STATE COLLEGE PA AS OF 3 PM WILL NEED
WATCHING...BUT DUE TO LIMITED CAPE, IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY
STATE AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN NJ TOWARDS 6 PM. AHEAD OF THIS
LINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED.

AFTER 6 PM THE LINE SHOULD BEGIN TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AS IT
APPROACHES NYC AND LONG ISLAND TOWARDS 7-8 PM.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTN/EVENING.

WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF NYC
TERMINALS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH KSWF HAVING THE BEST
OVERALL CHANCE.

SW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH 25-28 KT. WINDS DIMINISH TO
10-15 KT WITH 15-23 KT GUSTS THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING W-NW AND
DIMINISHING FURTHER TO 8-12 KT.

GENERAL WEST FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THE REST OF THE AFTN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS, QUITE
STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, TO NEAR 30 KTS THOUGH THE EVENING.

WIND DIMINISH LATE OVERNIGHT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE.
NOTE THAT WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 282045
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
445 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY FROM
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NORTH OF NEW YORK CITY/LONG ISLAND THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF MAINLY SHOWERS FROM ALBANY NY
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR STATE COLLEGE PA AS OF 3 PM WILL NEED
WATCHING...BUT DUE TO LIMITED CAPE, IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY
STATE AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN NJ TOWARDS 6 PM. AHEAD OF THIS
LINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED.

AFTER 6 PM THE LINE SHOULD BEGIN TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AS IT
APPROACHES NYC AND LONG ISLAND TOWARDS 7-8 PM.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTN/EVENING.

WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF NYC
TERMINALS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH KSWF HAVING THE BEST
OVERALL CHANCE.

SW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH 25-28 KT. WINDS DIMINISH TO
10-15 KT WITH 15-23 KT GUSTS THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING W-NW AND
DIMINISHING FURTHER TO 8-12 KT.

GENERAL WEST FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THE REST OF THE AFTN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS, QUITE
STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, TO NEAR 30 KTS THOUGH THE EVENING.

WIND DIMINISH LATE OVERNIGHT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE.
NOTE THAT WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KBGM 282013
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
413 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...HIT AND MISS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...AS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
4 PM MON UPDATE... THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS FINALLY OPENING
UP LATE THIS AFTN AND MOVING ENEWD INTO NEW ENG. AS SUCH...THE
HVYR RAINS ON THE DEFORMATION SIDE OF THE LOW HAVE SUBSIDED IN
CNY...WITH JUST LGT-MDT LEFTOVER SHWRS. A CONVECTIVE LN ACRS NE PA
IS TRANSLATING SEWD...AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE FA BY 21-23Z. FOR
THESE REASONS...THE FF WATCH ACRS PTNS OF CNY HAS BEEN CANCELLED EARLY.

AFTER ANY RESIDUAL SHWRS END EARLY THIS EVE...THE REST OF THE NGT
SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE...WITH CLDNS EARLY ON GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE. THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING WILL BE KEY TO HOW
MUCH...IF ANY VLY FOG FORMS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S-MID 50S MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
410 PM MON UPDATE... THE NEXT FEW DAYS (TUE-THU) WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...JUST AHD OF A LINGERING
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY RGNS.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY BLDG
EWD FROM THE UPR LAKES RGN AND SWRN ONT.

IN GENERAL...THIS MEANS DRY WX MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WIDELY SEPARATED SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ARND...MOSTLY
WED AND THU...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO NY/PA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COOL FOR THE END OF JULY (HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S)...THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY MODERATE TWDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE CYCLONE TRANSLATING ACROSS NY STATE WILL SPIN SHOWERS
OVER THE NY TERMINALS THROUGH 23Z-01Z, WHERE AFTER SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE. HEAVY SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BORDERLINE IFR RESTRICTIONS
(1SM TO 3SM VIS, 600-1500 FT CIGS) MAINLY THROUGH SUNSET.

LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ELM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 282013
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
413 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...HIT AND MISS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...AS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
4 PM MON UPDATE... THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS FINALLY OPENING
UP LATE THIS AFTN AND MOVING ENEWD INTO NEW ENG. AS SUCH...THE
HVYR RAINS ON THE DEFORMATION SIDE OF THE LOW HAVE SUBSIDED IN
CNY...WITH JUST LGT-MDT LEFTOVER SHWRS. A CONVECTIVE LN ACRS NE PA
IS TRANSLATING SEWD...AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE FA BY 21-23Z. FOR
THESE REASONS...THE FF WATCH ACRS PTNS OF CNY HAS BEEN CANCELLED EARLY.

AFTER ANY RESIDUAL SHWRS END EARLY THIS EVE...THE REST OF THE NGT
SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE...WITH CLDNS EARLY ON GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE. THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING WILL BE KEY TO HOW
MUCH...IF ANY VLY FOG FORMS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S-MID 50S MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
410 PM MON UPDATE... THE NEXT FEW DAYS (TUE-THU) WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...JUST AHD OF A LINGERING
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY RGNS.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY BLDG
EWD FROM THE UPR LAKES RGN AND SWRN ONT.

IN GENERAL...THIS MEANS DRY WX MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WIDELY SEPARATED SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ARND...MOSTLY
WED AND THU...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO NY/PA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COOL FOR THE END OF JULY (HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S)...THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY MODERATE TWDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE CYCLONE TRANSLATING ACROSS NY STATE WILL SPIN SHOWERS
OVER THE NY TERMINALS THROUGH 23Z-01Z, WHERE AFTER SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE. HEAVY SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BORDERLINE IFR RESTRICTIONS
(1SM TO 3SM VIS, 600-1500 FT CIGS) MAINLY THROUGH SUNSET.

LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ELM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 282013
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
413 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...HIT AND MISS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...AS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
4 PM MON UPDATE... THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS FINALLY OPENING
UP LATE THIS AFTN AND MOVING ENEWD INTO NEW ENG. AS SUCH...THE
HVYR RAINS ON THE DEFORMATION SIDE OF THE LOW HAVE SUBSIDED IN
CNY...WITH JUST LGT-MDT LEFTOVER SHWRS. A CONVECTIVE LN ACRS NE PA
IS TRANSLATING SEWD...AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE FA BY 21-23Z. FOR
THESE REASONS...THE FF WATCH ACRS PTNS OF CNY HAS BEEN CANCELLED EARLY.

AFTER ANY RESIDUAL SHWRS END EARLY THIS EVE...THE REST OF THE NGT
SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE...WITH CLDNS EARLY ON GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE. THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING WILL BE KEY TO HOW
MUCH...IF ANY VLY FOG FORMS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S-MID 50S MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
410 PM MON UPDATE... THE NEXT FEW DAYS (TUE-THU) WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...JUST AHD OF A LINGERING
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY RGNS.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY BLDG
EWD FROM THE UPR LAKES RGN AND SWRN ONT.

IN GENERAL...THIS MEANS DRY WX MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WIDELY SEPARATED SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ARND...MOSTLY
WED AND THU...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO NY/PA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COOL FOR THE END OF JULY (HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S)...THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY MODERATE TWDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE CYCLONE TRANSLATING ACROSS NY STATE WILL SPIN SHOWERS
OVER THE NY TERMINALS THROUGH 23Z-01Z, WHERE AFTER SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE. HEAVY SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BORDERLINE IFR RESTRICTIONS
(1SM TO 3SM VIS, 600-1500 FT CIGS) MAINLY THROUGH SUNSET.

LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ELM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 282013
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
413 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...HIT AND MISS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...AS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
4 PM MON UPDATE... THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS FINALLY OPENING
UP LATE THIS AFTN AND MOVING ENEWD INTO NEW ENG. AS SUCH...THE
HVYR RAINS ON THE DEFORMATION SIDE OF THE LOW HAVE SUBSIDED IN
CNY...WITH JUST LGT-MDT LEFTOVER SHWRS. A CONVECTIVE LN ACRS NE PA
IS TRANSLATING SEWD...AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE FA BY 21-23Z. FOR
THESE REASONS...THE FF WATCH ACRS PTNS OF CNY HAS BEEN CANCELLED EARLY.

AFTER ANY RESIDUAL SHWRS END EARLY THIS EVE...THE REST OF THE NGT
SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE...WITH CLDNS EARLY ON GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE. THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING WILL BE KEY TO HOW
MUCH...IF ANY VLY FOG FORMS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S-MID 50S MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
410 PM MON UPDATE... THE NEXT FEW DAYS (TUE-THU) WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...JUST AHD OF A LINGERING
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY RGNS.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY BLDG
EWD FROM THE UPR LAKES RGN AND SWRN ONT.

IN GENERAL...THIS MEANS DRY WX MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WIDELY SEPARATED SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ARND...MOSTLY
WED AND THU...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO NY/PA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COOL FOR THE END OF JULY (HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S)...THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY MODERATE TWDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE CYCLONE TRANSLATING ACROSS NY STATE WILL SPIN SHOWERS
OVER THE NY TERMINALS THROUGH 23Z-01Z, WHERE AFTER SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE. HEAVY SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BORDERLINE IFR RESTRICTIONS
(1SM TO 3SM VIS, 600-1500 FT CIGS) MAINLY THROUGH SUNSET.

LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ELM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP






000
FXUS61 KOKX 282010
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
410 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY FROM
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NORTH OF NEW YORK CITY/LONG ISLAND THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF MAINLY SHOWERS FROM ALBANY NY
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR STATE COLLEGE PA AS OF 3 PM WILL NEED
WATCHING...BUT DUE TO LIMITED CAPE, IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY
STATE AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN NJ TOWARDS 6 PM. AHEAD OF THIS
LINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED.

AFTER 6 PM THE LINE SHOULD BEGIN TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AS IT
APPROACHES NYC AND LONG ISLAND TOWARDS 7-8 PM.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A TSTM...WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ANY OF THE SHOWERS
IMPACTING ANY GIVEN TERMINAL...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE LATEST
TAFS. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME SHOWERS AT KSWF...AS THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONDS
OTHERWISE.

SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT.
WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH 15-23 KT GUSTS THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING W-NW AND DIMINISHING FURTHER TO 8-12 KT.

GENERAL WEST FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THE REST OF THE AFTN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS, QUITE
STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, TO NEAR 30 KTS THOUGH THE EVENING.

WIND DIMINISH LATE OVERNIGHT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE.
NOTE THAT WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KOKX 282010
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
410 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY FROM
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NORTH OF NEW YORK CITY/LONG ISLAND THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF MAINLY SHOWERS FROM ALBANY NY
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR STATE COLLEGE PA AS OF 3 PM WILL NEED
WATCHING...BUT DUE TO LIMITED CAPE, IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY
STATE AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN NJ TOWARDS 6 PM. AHEAD OF THIS
LINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED.

AFTER 6 PM THE LINE SHOULD BEGIN TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AS IT
APPROACHES NYC AND LONG ISLAND TOWARDS 7-8 PM.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A TSTM...WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ANY OF THE SHOWERS
IMPACTING ANY GIVEN TERMINAL...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE LATEST
TAFS. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME SHOWERS AT KSWF...AS THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONDS
OTHERWISE.

SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT.
WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH 15-23 KT GUSTS THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING W-NW AND DIMINISHING FURTHER TO 8-12 KT.

GENERAL WEST FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THE REST OF THE AFTN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS, QUITE
STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, TO NEAR 30 KTS THOUGH THE EVENING.

WIND DIMINISH LATE OVERNIGHT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE.
NOTE THAT WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KALY 282006
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
406 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD STILL
TRACKING EAST AND A FEW STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE IN AN
NEAR THE WATCH AREA. THE STORMS ARE MOVING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT HIGH OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS WHERE SOME ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE BERKSHIRES. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY OUT OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 281959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...









000
FXUS61 KBTV 281959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...










000
FXUS61 KBUF 281951
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
351 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY. PATCHY HEAVY RAIN MAINLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 20-21Z TIME FRAME AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES INTO NEW ENGLAND. REMAINING FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE
CANCELED.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING
OVER THE AREA.  EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS/VALLEY FOG.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/RGEM GUIDANCE FORECAST A VORTICITY
MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE IMPULSE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPULSES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A WEAKER
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS.
ALL AND ALL...SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...WITH QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL) AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPEN UP TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
WISE...AS THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND 500H HEIGHTS RISE SO WILL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AT 19Z. WIDESPREAD CEILINGS
AOB 1K FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH VSBYS 1-3SM IN +RA EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD...CEILINGS WILL
RISE TO 4-5K FT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.  SCATTERED CU WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 25 KNOTS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY
WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
15 TO 25 KNOTS...AND AROUND 30 KNOTS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WILL
DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN







000
FXUS61 KBUF 281951
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
351 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY. PATCHY HEAVY RAIN MAINLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 20-21Z TIME FRAME AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES INTO NEW ENGLAND. REMAINING FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE
CANCELED.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING
OVER THE AREA.  EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS/VALLEY FOG.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/RGEM GUIDANCE FORECAST A VORTICITY
MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE IMPULSE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPULSES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A WEAKER
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS.
ALL AND ALL...SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...WITH QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL) AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPEN UP TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
WISE...AS THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND 500H HEIGHTS RISE SO WILL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AT 19Z. WIDESPREAD CEILINGS
AOB 1K FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH VSBYS 1-3SM IN +RA EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD...CEILINGS WILL
RISE TO 4-5K FT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.  SCATTERED CU WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 25 KNOTS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY
WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
15 TO 25 KNOTS...AND AROUND 30 KNOTS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WILL
DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN








000
FXUS61 KALY 281949
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
349 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD STILL
TRACKING EAST AND A FEW STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE IN AN
NEAR THE WATCH AREA. THE STORMS ARE MOVING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT HIGH OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS WHERE SOME ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE BERKSHIRES. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY OUT OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 281949
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
349 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD STILL
TRACKING EAST AND A FEW STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE IN AN
NEAR THE WATCH AREA. THE STORMS ARE MOVING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT HIGH OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS WHERE SOME ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE BERKSHIRES. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY OUT OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 281949
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
349 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD STILL
TRACKING EAST AND A FEW STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE IN AN
NEAR THE WATCH AREA. THE STORMS ARE MOVING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT HIGH OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS WHERE SOME ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE BERKSHIRES. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY OUT OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 281949
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
349 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD STILL
TRACKING EAST AND A FEW STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE IN AN
NEAR THE WATCH AREA. THE STORMS ARE MOVING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT HIGH OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS WHERE SOME ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE BERKSHIRES. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY OUT OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 281939
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
339 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY FROM
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NORTH OF NEW YORK CITY/LONG ISLAND THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF MAINLY SHOWERS FROM ALBANY NY
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR STATE COLLEGE PA AS OF 3 PM WILL NEED
WATCHING...BUT DUE TO LIMITED CAPE, IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY
STATE AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN NJ TOWARDS 6 PM. AHEAD OF THIS
LINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED.

AFTER 6 PM THE LINE SHOULD BEGIN TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AS IT
APPROACHES NYC AND LONG ISLAND TOWARDS 7-8 PM.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A TSTM...WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ANY OF THE SHOWERS
IMPACTING ANY GIVEN TERMINAL...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE LATEST
TAFS. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME SHOWERS AT KSWF...AS THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONDS
OTHERWISE.

SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT.
WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH 15-23 KT GUSTS THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING W-NW AND DIMINISHING FURTHER TO 8-12 KT.

GENERAL WEST FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THE REST OF THE AFTN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS, QUITE
STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, TO NEAR 30 KTS THOUGH THE EVENING.

WIND DIMINISH LATE OVERNIGHT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE.
NOTE THAT WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KOKX 281939
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
339 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY FROM
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NORTH OF NEW YORK CITY/LONG ISLAND THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF MAINLY SHOWERS FROM ALBANY NY
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR STATE COLLEGE PA AS OF 3 PM WILL NEED
WATCHING...BUT DUE TO LIMITED CAPE, IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY
STATE AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN NJ TOWARDS 6 PM. AHEAD OF THIS
LINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED.

AFTER 6 PM THE LINE SHOULD BEGIN TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AS IT
APPROACHES NYC AND LONG ISLAND TOWARDS 7-8 PM.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO.

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL.

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A TSTM...WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ANY OF THE SHOWERS
IMPACTING ANY GIVEN TERMINAL...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE LATEST
TAFS. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME SHOWERS AT KSWF...AS THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONDS
OTHERWISE.

SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT.
WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH 15-23 KT GUSTS THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING W-NW AND DIMINISHING FURTHER TO 8-12 KT.

GENERAL WEST FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THE REST OF THE AFTN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS, QUITE
STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, TO NEAR 30 KTS THOUGH THE EVENING.

WIND DIMINISH LATE OVERNIGHT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE.
NOTE THAT WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KBTV 281902
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
302 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH BOX #452 FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. LATEST LAPS SHOW SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG ACRS THIS
REGION. THINKING THE BEST CHC FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WL BE
ACRS RUTLAND...WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS WESTERN/NORTHERN NY.
WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH
HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS
CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO
MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS
REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000
J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET
BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED 5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL
THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE
70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING
IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBUF 281901
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
301 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY. PATCHY HEAVY RAIN MAINLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 20-21Z TIME FRAME AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES INTO NEW ENGLAND. REMAINING FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE
CANCELED.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING
OVER THE AREA.  EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS/VALLEY FOG.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND BRING
ANOMALOUSLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE TROUGHS WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS FROM
TIME TO TIME. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
LAKE RESPONSE WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN
AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHOWERS EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS WESTERN NY AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
ISOLATED AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS AWAY...ALTHOUGH WITH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING LAKE INSTABILITY A FEW MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID SUMMER...WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ONLY INTO THE VERY LOW 70S AT LOW ELEVATIONS AND MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 70 ON THE HILLS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL TEND
TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER
50S IN THE COOLER INLAND AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATE
DURING MIDWEEK WILL SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AND RETREAT INTO QUEBEC BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OUT.

THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES PROBABLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AT 19Z. WIDESPREAD CEILINGS
AOB 1K FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH VSBYS 1-3SM IN +RA EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD...CEILINGS WILL
RISE TO 4-5K FT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.  SCATTERED CU WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 25 KNOTS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY
WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
15 TO 25 KNOTS...AND AROUND 30 KNOTS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WILL
DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN








000
FXUS61 KBUF 281901
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
301 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY. PATCHY HEAVY RAIN MAINLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 20-21Z TIME FRAME AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES INTO NEW ENGLAND. REMAINING FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE
CANCELED.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING
OVER THE AREA.  EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS/VALLEY FOG.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND BRING
ANOMALOUSLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE TROUGHS WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS FROM
TIME TO TIME. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
LAKE RESPONSE WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN
AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHOWERS EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS WESTERN NY AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
ISOLATED AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS AWAY...ALTHOUGH WITH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING LAKE INSTABILITY A FEW MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID SUMMER...WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ONLY INTO THE VERY LOW 70S AT LOW ELEVATIONS AND MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 70 ON THE HILLS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL TEND
TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER
50S IN THE COOLER INLAND AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATE
DURING MIDWEEK WILL SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AND RETREAT INTO QUEBEC BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OUT.

THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES PROBABLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AT 19Z. WIDESPREAD CEILINGS
AOB 1K FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH VSBYS 1-3SM IN +RA EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD...CEILINGS WILL
RISE TO 4-5K FT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.  SCATTERED CU WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 25 KNOTS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY
WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
15 TO 25 KNOTS...AND AROUND 30 KNOTS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WILL
DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN







000
FXUS61 KBTV 281817
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
217 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH BOX #452 FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. LATEST LAPS SHOW SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG ACRS THIS
REGION. THINKING THE BEST CHC FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WL BE
ACRS RUTLAND...WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS WESTERN/NORTHERN NY.
WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH
HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS
CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO
MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS
REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000
J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET
BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED 5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL
THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE
70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING
IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 281817
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
217 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH BOX #452 FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. LATEST LAPS SHOW SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG ACRS THIS
REGION. THINKING THE BEST CHC FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WL BE
ACRS RUTLAND...WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS WESTERN/NORTHERN NY.
WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH
HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS
CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO
MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS
REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000
J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET
BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED 5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL
THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE
70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING
IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 281817
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
217 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH BOX #452 FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. LATEST LAPS SHOW SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG ACRS THIS
REGION. THINKING THE BEST CHC FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WL BE
ACRS RUTLAND...WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS WESTERN/NORTHERN NY.
WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH
HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS
CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO
MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS
REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000
J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET
BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED 5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL
THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE
70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING
IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 281817
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
217 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH BOX #452 FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. LATEST LAPS SHOW SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG ACRS THIS
REGION. THINKING THE BEST CHC FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WL BE
ACRS RUTLAND...WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS WESTERN/NORTHERN NY.
WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH
HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS
CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO
MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS
REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000
J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET
BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED 5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL
THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE
70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING
IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KALY 281816
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
216 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...INCLUDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 281816
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
216 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...INCLUDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281757
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
157 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281757
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
157 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KOKX 281755
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
155 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES EAST TONIGHT...SETTLING WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
998 HPA SFC LOW NEAR ALBANY NY AS OF 1 PM. THE COLD FRONT IS NEAR
THE KBDR TO KISP LINE. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
THE UPPER LOW WERE ROTATING ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA.

FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK. CAP IS WEAKENING WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER NOW NORTH OF KSMQ IN NORTHERN NJ. CAPE IS NARROW WITH LOTS
OF DRY AIR ALOFT. BELIEVE LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS - HIGHEST NORTH.

WILL LIKELY DROP THE MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE HWO COME 3 PM WITH
LITTLE IF ANY DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LIFTING LCL`S, MAIN WX STORY
IS THE LATE JULY WINDS WHICH WILL GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS WE MIX UP
TO 800-850 HPA.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVENING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD. EVENING
WINDS DIMINISH AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TUES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A CLOSED
LOW HOVERING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH MINIMAL PROGRESSIVE
MOVEMENT ALOFT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST...BUT THEN
STALL OFFSHORE. IT SHOULD PUSH JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...BUT WILL COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE
FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL MAINTAIN HOLD OF THE REGION
THROUGH THURS. SHORTWAVE ROTATING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH
COULD TRIGGER AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM TUES AFTN OVER FAR NORTH AND
WESTERN EDGES OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING
IN...COULD LIKELY WILL END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THE NEXT MENTION
OF PCPN COMES THURS AFTN WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
REGION...INJECTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THE CLOSED
LOW ALOFT FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH STILL WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE PATTERN STILL BRINGS THROUGH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES THURS-FRI...EACH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHC IN TRIGGERING AN
ISO SHOWER OR TSTM.

LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT BY THIS WEEKEND...RIDING
THE FRONT WHILE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS THE SFC LOW NEAR THE TRI STATE AREA BY SUN MORNING. ENOUGH
FORCING ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
COMBINE WITH THE SFC LOW TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP FOR
LATER SAT THROUGH SUN.

TEMPS REMAIN NEAR STEADY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A TSTM...WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ANY OF THE SHOWERS
IMPACTING ANY GIVEN TERMINAL...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE LATEST
TAFS. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME SHOWERS AT KSWF...AS THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONDS
OTHERWISE.

SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT.
WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH 15-23 KT GUSTS THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING W-NW AND DIMINISHING FURTHER TO 8-12 KT.

GENERAL WEST FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...POSSIBLY JUST
SHY OF GALE FORCE FOR A SHORT TIME.

THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WILL EXTEND THE SCA THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND UNTIL MIDNIGHT ELSEWHERE.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUES MORNING.
AS THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUES AFTN. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE/PW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...TONGUE/PW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE










000
FXUS61 KOKX 281755
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
155 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES EAST TONIGHT...SETTLING WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
998 HPA SFC LOW NEAR ALBANY NY AS OF 1 PM. THE COLD FRONT IS NEAR
THE KBDR TO KISP LINE. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
THE UPPER LOW WERE ROTATING ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA.

FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK. CAP IS WEAKENING WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER NOW NORTH OF KSMQ IN NORTHERN NJ. CAPE IS NARROW WITH LOTS
OF DRY AIR ALOFT. BELIEVE LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS - HIGHEST NORTH.

WILL LIKELY DROP THE MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE HWO COME 3 PM WITH
LITTLE IF ANY DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LIFTING LCL`S, MAIN WX STORY
IS THE LATE JULY WINDS WHICH WILL GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS WE MIX UP
TO 800-850 HPA.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVENING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD. EVENING
WINDS DIMINISH AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TUES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A CLOSED
LOW HOVERING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT