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000
FXUS61 KBUF 211341
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
941 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE A WARM FRONT LIES. A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR LAKE HURON/GEORGIAN BAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE BETWEEN GEORGIAN BAY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AN ILL
DEFINED WARM FRONT LIES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND
THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...GENERALLY IN
AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL THE PRECEDING DAY. THIS PATCHY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY MORNING WITH THE RISING SUN/MIXING HEIGHTS.

REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ADVANCING ACROSS WAYNE COUNTY AND TOWARDS THE SE END OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS ACTIVITY FORMING WITHIN A LAYER OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE
BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION.

FOR TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND BOUNDARY
LAYER CONVERGENT CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE LOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM. ACTIVITY
WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE WEAK WARM FRONT AS
WELL AS DEEPER MOISTURE. ACROSS WNY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATEST.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 HPA LAYER
WILL DIMINISH CONVECTIVE SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS FAR WNY. THEN AS THIS
DRIER LAYER PUSHES EASTWARD IN COMBINATION OF THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOWERS AND ANY
REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE WINDS
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE
THICKEST ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND HILLS OF SW NYS.

AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THE COOLEST 24-HR CHANGE TO THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE TODAY WILL
START CLOUDY AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY WHEN SOME SUNSHINE STARTED THE
DAY. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH A
CONTINUED MUGGINESS FEEL TO THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE FOG
FORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...BUT THIS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS. THERE WILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY ON FRIDAY...NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIN AND NARROW CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUBTLE AREA WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY. NAM/SREF/RGEM/GFS CONSENSUS QPF
ALSO KEYS ON THIS REGION...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE SPARSE
SUPPORTING JUST CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE...A DEVELOPING NE FLOW OFF
LAKE ONTARIO MAY HELP SHADOW THE NIAGARA FRONTIER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
STRONGER CELLS WILL PROBABLY HAVE LIGHTNING...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPARSE IN COVERAGE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS SATURDAY...BUT THESE SHOULD END QUICKLY SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER SEASONABLE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE A TAD WARMER WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE ALLOWING A FEW SPOTS TO
REACH 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE SHOULD START TO
BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK...BUT EVEN AS IT DOES THERE IS ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NICE
STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR OUR REGION...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND
AMPLE SUNSHINE. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 12Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
FEW POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS WNY.

ALL AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR THROUGH THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE IN THE PEAK OF
DAYTIME HEATING WITH A THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WITH THE SCATTEREDNESS OF THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WITH
VCSH...WITH LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY REGION.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS
OF THE TAF CYCLE...WITH THE REGION BECOMING MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT SOME
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IS LIKELY WITH MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS LAKE
ONTARIO TODAY...AND THEN DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE LOWER
LAKES REGION. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THIS LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 211155
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
755 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE A WARM FRONT LIES. A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR LAKE HURON/GEORGIAN BAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE BETWEEN GEORGIAN BAY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AN ILL
DEFINED WARM FRONT LIES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND
THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...GENERALLY IN
AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL THE PRECEDING DAY. THIS PATCHY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY MORNING WITH THE RISING SUN/MIXING HEIGHTS.

REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ADVANCING ACROSS WAYNE COUNTY AND TOWARDS THE SE END OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS ACTIVITY FORMING WITHIN A LAYER OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE
BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION.

FOR TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND BOUNDARY
LAYER CONVERGENT CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE LOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM. ACTIVITY
WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE WEAK WARM FRONT AS
WELL AS DEEPER MOISTURE. ACROSS WNY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATEST.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 HPA LAYER
WILL DIMINISH CONVECTIVE SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS FAR WNY. THEN AS THIS
DRIER LAYER PUSHES EASTWARD IN COMBINATION OF THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOWERS AND ANY
REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE WINDS
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE
THICKEST ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND HILLS OF SW NYS.

AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THE COOLEST 24-HR CHANGE TO THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE TODAY WILL
START CLOUDY AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY WHEN SOME SUNSHINE STARTED THE
DAY. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH A
CONTINUED MUGGINESS FEEL TO THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE FOG
FORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...BUT THIS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS. THERE WILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY ON FRIDAY...NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIN AND NARROW CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUBTLE AREA WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY. NAM/SREF/RGEM/GFS CONSENSUS QPF
ALSO KEYS ON THIS REGION...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE SPARSE
SUPPORTING JUST CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE...A DEVELOPING NE FLOW OFF
LAKE ONTARIO MAY HELP SHADOW THE NIAGARA FRONTIER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
STRONGER CELLS WILL PROBABLY HAVE LIGHTNING...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPARSE IN COVERAGE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS SATURDAY...BUT THESE SHOULD END QUICKLY SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER SEASONABLE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE A TAD WARMER WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE ALLOWING A FEW SPOTS TO
REACH 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE SHOULD START TO BREAK DOWN BY
MID-WEEK...BUT EVEN AS IT DOES THERE IS ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NICE STRETCH OF
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND AMPLE SUNSHINE.
MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 12Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
FEW POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS WNY.

ALL AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR THROUGH THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE IN THE PEAK OF
DAYTIME HEATING WITH A THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WITH THE SCATTEREDNESS OF THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WITH
VCSH...WITH LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY REGION.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS
OF THE TAF CYCLE...WITH THE REGION BECOMING MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT SOME
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IS LIKELY WITH MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS LAKE
ONTARIO TODAY...AND THEN DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE LOWER
LAKES REGION. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THIS LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 211155
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
755 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE A WARM FRONT LIES. A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR LAKE HURON/GEORGIAN BAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE BETWEEN GEORGIAN BAY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AN ILL
DEFINED WARM FRONT LIES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND
THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...GENERALLY IN
AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL THE PRECEDING DAY. THIS PATCHY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY MORNING WITH THE RISING SUN/MIXING HEIGHTS.

REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ADVANCING ACROSS WAYNE COUNTY AND TOWARDS THE SE END OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS ACTIVITY FORMING WITHIN A LAYER OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE
BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION.

FOR TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND BOUNDARY
LAYER CONVERGENT CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE LOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM. ACTIVITY
WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE WEAK WARM FRONT AS
WELL AS DEEPER MOISTURE. ACROSS WNY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATEST.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 HPA LAYER
WILL DIMINISH CONVECTIVE SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS FAR WNY. THEN AS THIS
DRIER LAYER PUSHES EASTWARD IN COMBINATION OF THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOWERS AND ANY
REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE WINDS
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE
THICKEST ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND HILLS OF SW NYS.

AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THE COOLEST 24-HR CHANGE TO THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE TODAY WILL
START CLOUDY AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY WHEN SOME SUNSHINE STARTED THE
DAY. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH A
CONTINUED MUGGINESS FEEL TO THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE FOG
FORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...BUT THIS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS. THERE WILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY ON FRIDAY...NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIN AND NARROW CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUBTLE AREA WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY. NAM/SREF/RGEM/GFS CONSENSUS QPF
ALSO KEYS ON THIS REGION...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE SPARSE
SUPPORTING JUST CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE...A DEVELOPING NE FLOW OFF
LAKE ONTARIO MAY HELP SHADOW THE NIAGARA FRONTIER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
STRONGER CELLS WILL PROBABLY HAVE LIGHTNING...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPARSE IN COVERAGE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS SATURDAY...BUT THESE SHOULD END QUICKLY SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER SEASONABLE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE A TAD WARMER WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE ALLOWING A FEW SPOTS TO
REACH 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE SHOULD START TO BREAK DOWN BY
MID-WEEK...BUT EVEN AS IT DOES THERE IS ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NICE STRETCH OF
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND AMPLE SUNSHINE.
MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 12Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
FEW POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS WNY.

ALL AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR THROUGH THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE IN THE PEAK OF
DAYTIME HEATING WITH A THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WITH THE SCATTEREDNESS OF THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WITH
VCSH...WITH LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY REGION.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS
OF THE TAF CYCLE...WITH THE REGION BECOMING MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT SOME
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IS LIKELY WITH MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS LAKE
ONTARIO TODAY...AND THEN DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE LOWER
LAKES REGION. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THIS LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 211155
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
755 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE A WARM FRONT LIES. A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR LAKE HURON/GEORGIAN BAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE BETWEEN GEORGIAN BAY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AN ILL
DEFINED WARM FRONT LIES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND
THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...GENERALLY IN
AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL THE PRECEDING DAY. THIS PATCHY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY MORNING WITH THE RISING SUN/MIXING HEIGHTS.

REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ADVANCING ACROSS WAYNE COUNTY AND TOWARDS THE SE END OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS ACTIVITY FORMING WITHIN A LAYER OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE
BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION.

FOR TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND BOUNDARY
LAYER CONVERGENT CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE LOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM. ACTIVITY
WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE WEAK WARM FRONT AS
WELL AS DEEPER MOISTURE. ACROSS WNY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATEST.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 HPA LAYER
WILL DIMINISH CONVECTIVE SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS FAR WNY. THEN AS THIS
DRIER LAYER PUSHES EASTWARD IN COMBINATION OF THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOWERS AND ANY
REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE WINDS
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE
THICKEST ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND HILLS OF SW NYS.

AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THE COOLEST 24-HR CHANGE TO THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE TODAY WILL
START CLOUDY AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY WHEN SOME SUNSHINE STARTED THE
DAY. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH A
CONTINUED MUGGINESS FEEL TO THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE FOG
FORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...BUT THIS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS. THERE WILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY ON FRIDAY...NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIN AND NARROW CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUBTLE AREA WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY. NAM/SREF/RGEM/GFS CONSENSUS QPF
ALSO KEYS ON THIS REGION...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE SPARSE
SUPPORTING JUST CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE...A DEVELOPING NE FLOW OFF
LAKE ONTARIO MAY HELP SHADOW THE NIAGARA FRONTIER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
STRONGER CELLS WILL PROBABLY HAVE LIGHTNING...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPARSE IN COVERAGE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS SATURDAY...BUT THESE SHOULD END QUICKLY SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER SEASONABLE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE A TAD WARMER WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE ALLOWING A FEW SPOTS TO
REACH 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE SHOULD START TO BREAK DOWN BY
MID-WEEK...BUT EVEN AS IT DOES THERE IS ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NICE STRETCH OF
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND AMPLE SUNSHINE.
MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 12Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
FEW POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS WNY.

ALL AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR THROUGH THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE IN THE PEAK OF
DAYTIME HEATING WITH A THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WITH THE SCATTEREDNESS OF THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WITH
VCSH...WITH LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY REGION.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS
OF THE TAF CYCLE...WITH THE REGION BECOMING MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT SOME
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IS LIKELY WITH MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS LAKE
ONTARIO TODAY...AND THEN DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE LOWER
LAKES REGION. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THIS LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 211155
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
755 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE A WARM FRONT LIES. A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR LAKE HURON/GEORGIAN BAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE BETWEEN GEORGIAN BAY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AN ILL
DEFINED WARM FRONT LIES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND
THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...GENERALLY IN
AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL THE PRECEDING DAY. THIS PATCHY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY MORNING WITH THE RISING SUN/MIXING HEIGHTS.

REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ADVANCING ACROSS WAYNE COUNTY AND TOWARDS THE SE END OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS ACTIVITY FORMING WITHIN A LAYER OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE
BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION.

FOR TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND BOUNDARY
LAYER CONVERGENT CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE LOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM. ACTIVITY
WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE WEAK WARM FRONT AS
WELL AS DEEPER MOISTURE. ACROSS WNY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATEST.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 HPA LAYER
WILL DIMINISH CONVECTIVE SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS FAR WNY. THEN AS THIS
DRIER LAYER PUSHES EASTWARD IN COMBINATION OF THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOWERS AND ANY
REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE WINDS
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE
THICKEST ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND HILLS OF SW NYS.

AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THE COOLEST 24-HR CHANGE TO THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE TODAY WILL
START CLOUDY AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY WHEN SOME SUNSHINE STARTED THE
DAY. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH A
CONTINUED MUGGINESS FEEL TO THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE FOG
FORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...BUT THIS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS. THERE WILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY ON FRIDAY...NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIN AND NARROW CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUBTLE AREA WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY. NAM/SREF/RGEM/GFS CONSENSUS QPF
ALSO KEYS ON THIS REGION...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE SPARSE
SUPPORTING JUST CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE...A DEVELOPING NE FLOW OFF
LAKE ONTARIO MAY HELP SHADOW THE NIAGARA FRONTIER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
STRONGER CELLS WILL PROBABLY HAVE LIGHTNING...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPARSE IN COVERAGE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS SATURDAY...BUT THESE SHOULD END QUICKLY SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER SEASONABLE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE A TAD WARMER WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE ALLOWING A FEW SPOTS TO
REACH 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE SHOULD START TO BREAK DOWN BY
MID-WEEK...BUT EVEN AS IT DOES THERE IS ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NICE STRETCH OF
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND AMPLE SUNSHINE.
MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 12Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
FEW POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS WNY.

ALL AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR THROUGH THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE IN THE PEAK OF
DAYTIME HEATING WITH A THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WITH THE SCATTEREDNESS OF THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WITH
VCSH...WITH LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY REGION.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS
OF THE TAF CYCLE...WITH THE REGION BECOMING MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT SOME
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IS LIKELY WITH MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS LAKE
ONTARIO TODAY...AND THEN DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE LOWER
LAKES REGION. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THIS LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211140
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS
TIME AND HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. STILL
EXPECTING MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHWEST
VERMONT...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MOVING INTO WESTERN VERMONT AT
THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH MAINLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR
TODAY FOR SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TODAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT IN NOT SHOWING MUCH IF ANY QPF ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST
VERMONT TODAY. BEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE
TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO SOUTHWEST
VERMONT. DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW TO
MID 70S FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. STILL COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. HAVE
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... BUT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS SOUTH FROM
CANADA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AND
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY QUIET AND STRAIGHT FORWARD FCST FOR
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...WHICH WL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
WEDS INTO THURS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH REGARDS TO NORTHERN STREAM
TROF AND ASSOCIATED POSITION OF SFC COLD FRNT. GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDS THIS SUMMER FOR LESS WAA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF AND
FASTER SFC COLD FRNT ARRIVAL TIMES...WL USE THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTS A FLATTER MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND WARMEST 85H TEMPS STAYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 14-16C BY 00Z WEDS...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE WARMER CPV/SLV ON TUES. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY FLW WL INCREASE THE SFC DWPTS INTO THE
60S...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS ANTICIPATED. LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SHOW SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS SLIDING JUST TO OUR NORTH ON
TUES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE BORDER
ON TUES. WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM...GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGE ACRS OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF POTENT 5H
VORT IN DEVELOPING S/W TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND A SFC COLD
FRNT WL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BY WEDS. COOLER
TEMPS WL ALSO ARRIVE BY WEDS/THURS...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
FALLING BACK BTWN 8-10C BY 00Z THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT IF THE FRNT IS SLOWER AND THE GFS
THERMAL FIELDS ARE REALIZED THEN TEMPS WEDS COULD BE WELL INTO THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. I WOULD EXPECT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
POSITION OF TROF DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF RIDGE/ASSOCIATED
THERMAL PROFILES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY/MONDAY WL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS...RESULTING IN TYPICAL MID AUGUST WEATHER FOR OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY....CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY/CPV ATTM...SLOWLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL VT. VIS/CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP IS MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. WL MENTION MAINLY VFR IN THE PREVAILING GROUP
WITH TEMPO FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM BTWN 12-15Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WL BE POSSIBLE
ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES THIS AFTN...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
IN THE HEAVIER STORMS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS. A SLOW CLRING TREND
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 21Z...WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS. THINKING CLOUDS AND
WINDS WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WL BE LIKELY AT SLK/MPV
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-
13Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES AT MSS AND RUTLAND.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER







000
FXUS61 KBTV 211140
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS
TIME AND HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. STILL
EXPECTING MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHWEST
VERMONT...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MOVING INTO WESTERN VERMONT AT
THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH MAINLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR
TODAY FOR SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TODAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT IN NOT SHOWING MUCH IF ANY QPF ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST
VERMONT TODAY. BEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE
TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO SOUTHWEST
VERMONT. DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW TO
MID 70S FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. STILL COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. HAVE
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... BUT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS SOUTH FROM
CANADA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AND
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY QUIET AND STRAIGHT FORWARD FCST FOR
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...WHICH WL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
WEDS INTO THURS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH REGARDS TO NORTHERN STREAM
TROF AND ASSOCIATED POSITION OF SFC COLD FRNT. GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDS THIS SUMMER FOR LESS WAA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF AND
FASTER SFC COLD FRNT ARRIVAL TIMES...WL USE THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTS A FLATTER MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND WARMEST 85H TEMPS STAYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 14-16C BY 00Z WEDS...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE WARMER CPV/SLV ON TUES. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY FLW WL INCREASE THE SFC DWPTS INTO THE
60S...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS ANTICIPATED. LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SHOW SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS SLIDING JUST TO OUR NORTH ON
TUES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE BORDER
ON TUES. WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM...GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGE ACRS OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF POTENT 5H
VORT IN DEVELOPING S/W TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND A SFC COLD
FRNT WL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BY WEDS. COOLER
TEMPS WL ALSO ARRIVE BY WEDS/THURS...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
FALLING BACK BTWN 8-10C BY 00Z THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT IF THE FRNT IS SLOWER AND THE GFS
THERMAL FIELDS ARE REALIZED THEN TEMPS WEDS COULD BE WELL INTO THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. I WOULD EXPECT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
POSITION OF TROF DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF RIDGE/ASSOCIATED
THERMAL PROFILES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY/MONDAY WL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS...RESULTING IN TYPICAL MID AUGUST WEATHER FOR OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY....CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY/CPV ATTM...SLOWLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL VT. VIS/CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP IS MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. WL MENTION MAINLY VFR IN THE PREVAILING GROUP
WITH TEMPO FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM BTWN 12-15Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WL BE POSSIBLE
ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES THIS AFTN...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
IN THE HEAVIER STORMS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS. A SLOW CLRING TREND
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 21Z...WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS. THINKING CLOUDS AND
WINDS WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WL BE LIKELY AT SLK/MPV
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-
13Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES AT MSS AND RUTLAND.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 211131
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
731 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MOVING INTO WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME.
WILL GO WITH MAINLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY FOR
SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TODAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT
IN NOT SHOWING MUCH IF ANY QPF ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT
TODAY. BEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO SOUTHWEST VERMONT. DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN ON
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW TO MID 70S FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. STILL COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. HAVE
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... BUT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS SOUTH FROM
CANADA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AND
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY QUIET AND STRAIGHT FORWARD FCST FOR
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...WHICH WL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
WEDS INTO THURS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH REGARDS TO NORTHERN STREAM
TROF AND ASSOCIATED POSITION OF SFC COLD FRNT. GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDS THIS SUMMER FOR LESS WAA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF AND
FASTER SFC COLD FRNT ARRIVAL TIMES...WL USE THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTS A FLATTER MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND WARMEST 85H TEMPS STAYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 14-16C BY 00Z WEDS...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE WARMER CPV/SLV ON TUES. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY FLW WL INCREASE THE SFC DWPTS INTO THE
60S...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS ANTICIPATED. LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SHOW SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS SLIDING JUST TO OUR NORTH ON
TUES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE BORDER
ON TUES. WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM...GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGE ACRS OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF POTENT 5H
VORT IN DEVELOPING S/W TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND A SFC COLD
FRNT WL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BY WEDS. COOLER
TEMPS WL ALSO ARRIVE BY WEDS/THURS...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
FALLING BACK BTWN 8-10C BY 00Z THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT IF THE FRNT IS SLOWER AND THE GFS
THERMAL FIELDS ARE REALIZED THEN TEMPS WEDS COULD BE WELL INTO THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. I WOULD EXPECT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
POSITION OF TROF DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF RIDGE/ASSOCIATED
THERMAL PROFILES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY/MONDAY WL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS...RESULTING IN TYPICAL MID AUGUST WEATHER FOR OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY....CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY/CPV ATTM...SLOWLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL VT. VIS/CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP IS MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. WL MENTION MAINLY VFR IN THE PREVAILING GROUP
WITH TEMPO FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM BTWN 12-15Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WL BE POSSIBLE
ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES THIS AFTN...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
IN THE HEAVIER STORMS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS. A SLOW CLRING TREND
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 21Z...WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS. THINKING CLOUDS AND
WINDS WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WL BE LIKELY AT SLK/MPV
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-
13Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES AT MSS AND RUTLAND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING
SYSTEM (ASOS) AT SAINT JOHNSBURY VERMONT (K1V4) NOW APPEARS TO BE
TRANSMITTING OBSERVATIONS AGAIN AS OF 0754Z (354 AM EDT).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WGH









000
FXUS61 KBTV 211131
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
731 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MOVING INTO WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME.
WILL GO WITH MAINLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY FOR
SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TODAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT
IN NOT SHOWING MUCH IF ANY QPF ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT
TODAY. BEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO SOUTHWEST VERMONT. DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN ON
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW TO MID 70S FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. STILL COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. HAVE
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... BUT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS SOUTH FROM
CANADA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AND
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY QUIET AND STRAIGHT FORWARD FCST FOR
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...WHICH WL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
WEDS INTO THURS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH REGARDS TO NORTHERN STREAM
TROF AND ASSOCIATED POSITION OF SFC COLD FRNT. GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDS THIS SUMMER FOR LESS WAA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF AND
FASTER SFC COLD FRNT ARRIVAL TIMES...WL USE THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTS A FLATTER MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND WARMEST 85H TEMPS STAYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 14-16C BY 00Z WEDS...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE WARMER CPV/SLV ON TUES. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY FLW WL INCREASE THE SFC DWPTS INTO THE
60S...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS ANTICIPATED. LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SHOW SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS SLIDING JUST TO OUR NORTH ON
TUES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE BORDER
ON TUES. WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM...GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGE ACRS OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF POTENT 5H
VORT IN DEVELOPING S/W TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND A SFC COLD
FRNT WL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BY WEDS. COOLER
TEMPS WL ALSO ARRIVE BY WEDS/THURS...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
FALLING BACK BTWN 8-10C BY 00Z THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT IF THE FRNT IS SLOWER AND THE GFS
THERMAL FIELDS ARE REALIZED THEN TEMPS WEDS COULD BE WELL INTO THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. I WOULD EXPECT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
POSITION OF TROF DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF RIDGE/ASSOCIATED
THERMAL PROFILES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY/MONDAY WL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS...RESULTING IN TYPICAL MID AUGUST WEATHER FOR OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY....CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY/CPV ATTM...SLOWLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL VT. VIS/CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP IS MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. WL MENTION MAINLY VFR IN THE PREVAILING GROUP
WITH TEMPO FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM BTWN 12-15Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WL BE POSSIBLE
ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES THIS AFTN...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
IN THE HEAVIER STORMS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS. A SLOW CLRING TREND
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 21Z...WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS. THINKING CLOUDS AND
WINDS WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WL BE LIKELY AT SLK/MPV
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-
13Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES AT MSS AND RUTLAND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING
SYSTEM (ASOS) AT SAINT JOHNSBURY VERMONT (K1V4) NOW APPEARS TO BE
TRANSMITTING OBSERVATIONS AGAIN AS OF 0754Z (354 AM EDT).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WGH







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 211117
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
717 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
FROM EASTERN CANADA. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST UPDATED TO REMOVE FOG THIS MRNG. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE REGION WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER NE NJ...LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO NYC. THESE AREAS MAY ALSO SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AS MUCAPE ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST...A
FEW HUNDRED TO JUST OVER 1000 J/KG. WITH A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
LIFTING MECHANISM...NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE.

CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE MOST PART. GENERALLY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES TONIGHT AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND A SHORTWAVE
MOVES AROUND ITS BASE. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES...AND THUS JUST
PLAIN SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN EARLY TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A MOIST AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS
WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS WILL COME BACK DOWN TO THE LOWER 60S
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THIS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN MEAN AN EVEN
COOLER DAY ON FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. SOME UPPER 70S FOR THE NYC
METRO REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO END FROM EAST TO
WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOLID MODEL CONSENSUS THRU TUE. HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA THEN
STRENGTHENS AS THE UPR RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD. ON WED...THE ECMWF
BRINGS A CDFNT CLOSE...BUT THE GFS KEEPS THE FEATURE OFF THE LOCAL
MAP. HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLN AS THIS FITS A FAST MODEL
BIAS AT THIS TIME RANGE.

A MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS IS LOCKED IN FRI NGT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SAT. VIRTUALLY NO LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER...SO HAVE ONLY FCST
SPRINKLES. THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLR IN THE AFTN FROM NE TO SW AS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN.

DRY WITH LGT WINDS SUN-WED COURTESY OF THE HIGH. SOME CIRRUS AT
TIMES.

TEMPS BLW NORMAL SAT...THEN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE
SUN-TUE AS HEIGHTS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ANY SHOWER
COULD REDUCE CEILINGS OR VSBYS TO MVFR BRIEFLY. BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS NYC METRO AND NORTH AND WEST...LATER IN THE DAY.

POSSIBLE HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. BEST CHANCE NYC METRO AND NORTH AND WEST.
VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS MAY LOWER TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR LATE AT NIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH 5 TO 10
KTS. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD LIGHTEN AS THEY TURN TO THE EAST.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST BEFORE NOON. TIMING COULD BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
MORNING...JUST TO THE RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI MORNING...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
.FRI AFTERNOON-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUND AND HARBOR. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA
BRIEFLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA LVLS FRI NGT...THEN DIMINISH DURING THE DAY
ON SAT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT LATE FRI
NGT...THEN LINGER THRU MOST OF SAT BEFORE SUBSIDING. A SCA MAY BE
NEEDED ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN FRI NGT AND SAT. OTHERWISE...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE BLW SCA LVLS SUN-AT LEAST TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE NJ AND INTO NYC. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT BASIN AVERAGED
TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT...AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE ISOLATED. TRACE AMOUNTS OF PCPN ARE POSSIBLE FRI NGT INTO SAT.
IT WILL THEN REMAIN DRY THRU THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP









000
FXUS61 KOKX 211117
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
717 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
FROM EASTERN CANADA. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST UPDATED TO REMOVE FOG THIS MRNG. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE REGION WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER NE NJ...LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO NYC. THESE AREAS MAY ALSO SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AS MUCAPE ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST...A
FEW HUNDRED TO JUST OVER 1000 J/KG. WITH A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
LIFTING MECHANISM...NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE.

CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE MOST PART. GENERALLY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES TONIGHT AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND A SHORTWAVE
MOVES AROUND ITS BASE. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES...AND THUS JUST
PLAIN SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN EARLY TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A MOIST AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS
WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS WILL COME BACK DOWN TO THE LOWER 60S
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THIS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN MEAN AN EVEN
COOLER DAY ON FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. SOME UPPER 70S FOR THE NYC
METRO REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO END FROM EAST TO
WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOLID MODEL CONSENSUS THRU TUE. HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA THEN
STRENGTHENS AS THE UPR RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD. ON WED...THE ECMWF
BRINGS A CDFNT CLOSE...BUT THE GFS KEEPS THE FEATURE OFF THE LOCAL
MAP. HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLN AS THIS FITS A FAST MODEL
BIAS AT THIS TIME RANGE.

A MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS IS LOCKED IN FRI NGT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SAT. VIRTUALLY NO LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER...SO HAVE ONLY FCST
SPRINKLES. THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLR IN THE AFTN FROM NE TO SW AS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN.

DRY WITH LGT WINDS SUN-WED COURTESY OF THE HIGH. SOME CIRRUS AT
TIMES.

TEMPS BLW NORMAL SAT...THEN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE
SUN-TUE AS HEIGHTS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ANY SHOWER
COULD REDUCE CEILINGS OR VSBYS TO MVFR BRIEFLY. BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS NYC METRO AND NORTH AND WEST...LATER IN THE DAY.

POSSIBLE HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. BEST CHANCE NYC METRO AND NORTH AND WEST.
VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS MAY LOWER TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR LATE AT NIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH 5 TO 10
KTS. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD LIGHTEN AS THEY TURN TO THE EAST.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST BEFORE NOON. TIMING COULD BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
MORNING...JUST TO THE RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI MORNING...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
.FRI AFTERNOON-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUND AND HARBOR. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA
BRIEFLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA LVLS FRI NGT...THEN DIMINISH DURING THE DAY
ON SAT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT LATE FRI
NGT...THEN LINGER THRU MOST OF SAT BEFORE SUBSIDING. A SCA MAY BE
NEEDED ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN FRI NGT AND SAT. OTHERWISE...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE BLW SCA LVLS SUN-AT LEAST TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE NJ AND INTO NYC. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT BASIN AVERAGED
TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT...AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE ISOLATED. TRACE AMOUNTS OF PCPN ARE POSSIBLE FRI NGT INTO SAT.
IT WILL THEN REMAIN DRY THRU THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 211058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY FROM THE EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS...EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY ACROSS THIS
REGION FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING UNTIL THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVES FURTHER EAST. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING. LATER THIS MORNING POPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
FOR A TIME...BUT BY LATER TODAY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ONCE AGAIN...AS ADDITIONAL MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING BEGINS IMPACT THE REGION...AND CHANCE POPS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

IT WILL BE CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. POPS ARE SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS WE ENTER THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST.

WPC GUIDANCE/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SRN QUEBEC AND
NRN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT...AND BE CENTERED OVER  THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY...AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND PLAINS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP DOWN
STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE LONG TERM STRETCH.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED FORECASTS WED
PM INTO WED NIGHT NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND
WITH 50S FOR LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M70S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...H850 TEMP MODERATE TO +13C TO +14C WITH DECENT
MIXING...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.  LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 50S TO L60S.  WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON WITH
M70S TO L80S FOR HIGHS...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE LATE THIS MORNING AT
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY FROM AT KGFL
AS BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CNTRL AND
ERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING MUCH OF THE
MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST. OTHER SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA BTWN 21Z AND 00Z/FRI LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR
LEVELS AGAIN AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN TERMS
OF CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF AND POSSIBLY KGFL.

SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PROBS ARE STILL
BELOW 50 PERCENT...SO WE WILL LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES ADDRESS THE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES. THE THREAT PERIOD LOOKS LIKE 20Z TO 04Z/FRI.

THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-8 KTS. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
TONIGHT AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT...DUE TO THE WET WEATHER
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 MPH TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.

AS OF 400 AM...RADAR INDICATES THAT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN SINCE WEDNESDAY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SARATOGA REGION. GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH TO ONE AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH IN
MANY AREAS...BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ANOTHER TWO TO THREE INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS BEFORE THE
RAIN BEGAN...THE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL GENERALLY BE
MINOR AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. BE.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBGM 211054
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
654 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE POTENT UPPR LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER NEW
YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
650 AM EDT UPDATE...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. PATCHY FOG HAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE
VALLEYS. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN NY AND PA. EXPECT THESE
TO DRIFT TO THE EAST AROUND 15-20 MPH. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON TODAY`S EVENT...
PLEASE READ DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS THIS MORNING HAVE PRETTY MUCH TAPERED OFF AND JUST AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE HERE ARE STILL GOING. PATCHY VALLEY FOG
HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THIS TO MIX OUT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

THE UPPR LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
THAT HAVE BROUGHT US SHOWERS YESTERDAY WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN TODAY
AND DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARDS NY. AS THIS LOW DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH IT
WILL EJECT A VORTICITY MAXIMA ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARE LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON.

ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOPS TODAY WILL HAVE MORE INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH THAN YESTERDAY. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
2500 J/KG... BELIEVE THIS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH BUT VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG AREN`T TOO UNREASONABLE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL NY AND 30 OVER
NORTHEAST PA. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW... AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OVER NE PA WHERE THE SHEAR IS A LITTLE
STRONGER. WITH THE MENTIONED STATEMENTS ABOVE... EXPECT TO SEE
MORE CONVECTION OVERALL TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE BEST MID
LVL SUPPORT DURING THE TIME FRAME FOR LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO BE I-81 AND EAST. PWAT VALUES TODAY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 1.4 INCHES GIVE OR TAKE. WITH THAT BEING SAID WE COULD
SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TODAY WITH THE CONVECTION.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WE MAY REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW TILL
LATE IN THE NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE AXIS MOVES EAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG SHOWERS MAY
LINGER.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S AND ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE
80S THIS AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR 14 DECREES CELSIUS.
TEMPS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 60S AS DENSE CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT STRONG COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY FRIDAY THE UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AND
THE LARGE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL
MOVE EAST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE MID-WEST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN OUR PATTERN ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. WEAK SPURTS OF ENERGY WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY AND DUE TO THE COMBINATIONS OF LINGERING LOW LVL
MOISTURE... WEAK WAVES... AND HEATING FROM THE SUN... SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WEAK VORTICITY MAXS WILL
TRAVEL ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT AND MAY GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CWA. BUT... BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THE UPPR RIDGE WILL BE FURTHER EAST AND SUBSIDENCE WILL START TO
TAKE CONTROL OF THE AREA. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THUS... BY SATURDAY
EVENING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE GONE.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL RISE INTO THE 70S EACH
AFTERNOON AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF STATES NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS COMBINED WITH SFC HIGH PRES ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
PROVIDE A PLEASANT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MAY BRING THE
AREA SOME SHOWERS.

245 PM UPDATE...
WPC GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WITH 588 DM
HEIGHTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS RIDGE WITH VERY
QUIET WEATHER. WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR
THE SURFACE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST,
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. EVENTUALLY THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MUCH, MUCH WARMER AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KELM WHERE CONDITIONS NEAR AIRPORT MINS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 14Z
AND KBGM WHERE LOW MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST UNTIL 14Z. BY MID
MORNING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN LAKES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. FOR THE NYS TERMINALS INCLUDED PREVAILING MVFR
SHOWERS FROM 18Z-00Z, AT KAVP 21Z-03Z. MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AGAIN DUE TO RAINFALL AND WEAK MIXING. AT
KELM DENSE FOG WILL BE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06Z.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING THEN
LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRI NGT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA.
FRI NGT...IFR FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY FOG AT KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...HEDEN/RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 211054
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
654 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE POTENT UPPR LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER NEW
YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
650 AM EDT UPDATE...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. PATCHY FOG HAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE
VALLEYS. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN NY AND PA. EXPECT THESE
TO DRIFT TO THE EAST AROUND 15-20 MPH. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON TODAY`S EVENT...
PLEASE READ DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS THIS MORNING HAVE PRETTY MUCH TAPERED OFF AND JUST AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE HERE ARE STILL GOING. PATCHY VALLEY FOG
HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THIS TO MIX OUT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

THE UPPR LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
THAT HAVE BROUGHT US SHOWERS YESTERDAY WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN TODAY
AND DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARDS NY. AS THIS LOW DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH IT
WILL EJECT A VORTICITY MAXIMA ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARE LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON.

ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOPS TODAY WILL HAVE MORE INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH THAN YESTERDAY. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
2500 J/KG... BELIEVE THIS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH BUT VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG AREN`T TOO UNREASONABLE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL NY AND 30 OVER
NORTHEAST PA. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW... AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OVER NE PA WHERE THE SHEAR IS A LITTLE
STRONGER. WITH THE MENTIONED STATEMENTS ABOVE... EXPECT TO SEE
MORE CONVECTION OVERALL TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE BEST MID
LVL SUPPORT DURING THE TIME FRAME FOR LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO BE I-81 AND EAST. PWAT VALUES TODAY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 1.4 INCHES GIVE OR TAKE. WITH THAT BEING SAID WE COULD
SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TODAY WITH THE CONVECTION.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WE MAY REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW TILL
LATE IN THE NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE AXIS MOVES EAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG SHOWERS MAY
LINGER.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S AND ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE
80S THIS AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR 14 DECREES CELSIUS.
TEMPS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 60S AS DENSE CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT STRONG COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY FRIDAY THE UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AND
THE LARGE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL
MOVE EAST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE MID-WEST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN OUR PATTERN ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. WEAK SPURTS OF ENERGY WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY AND DUE TO THE COMBINATIONS OF LINGERING LOW LVL
MOISTURE... WEAK WAVES... AND HEATING FROM THE SUN... SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WEAK VORTICITY MAXS WILL
TRAVEL ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT AND MAY GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CWA. BUT... BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THE UPPR RIDGE WILL BE FURTHER EAST AND SUBSIDENCE WILL START TO
TAKE CONTROL OF THE AREA. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THUS... BY SATURDAY
EVENING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE GONE.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL RISE INTO THE 70S EACH
AFTERNOON AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF STATES NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS COMBINED WITH SFC HIGH PRES ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
PROVIDE A PLEASANT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MAY BRING THE
AREA SOME SHOWERS.

245 PM UPDATE...
WPC GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WITH 588 DM
HEIGHTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS RIDGE WITH VERY
QUIET WEATHER. WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR
THE SURFACE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST,
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. EVENTUALLY THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MUCH, MUCH WARMER AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KELM WHERE CONDITIONS NEAR AIRPORT MINS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 14Z
AND KBGM WHERE LOW MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST UNTIL 14Z. BY MID
MORNING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN LAKES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. FOR THE NYS TERMINALS INCLUDED PREVAILING MVFR
SHOWERS FROM 18Z-00Z, AT KAVP 21Z-03Z. MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AGAIN DUE TO RAINFALL AND WEAK MIXING. AT
KELM DENSE FOG WILL BE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06Z.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING THEN
LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRI NGT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA.
FRI NGT...IFR FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY FOG AT KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...HEDEN/RRM
AVIATION...RRM









000
FXUS61 KBGM 211048
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
648 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE POTENT UPPR LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER NEW
YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS THIS MORNING HAVE PRETTY MUCH TAPERED OFF AND JUST AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE HERE ARE STILL GOING. PATCHY VALLEY FOG
HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THIS TO MIX OUT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

THE UPPR LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
THAT HAVE BROUGHT US SHOWERS YESTERDAY WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN TODAY
AND DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARDS NY. AS THIS LOW DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH IT
WILL EJECT A VORTICITY MAXIMA ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARE LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON.

ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOPS TODAY WILL HAVE MORE INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH THAN YESTERDAY. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
2500 J/KG... BELIEVE THIS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH BUT VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG AREN`T TOO UNREASONABLE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL NY AND 30 OVER
NORTHEAST PA. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW... AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OVER NE PA WHERE THE SHEAR IS A LITTLE
STRONGER. WITH THE MENTIONED STATEMENTS ABOVE... EXPECT TO SEE
MORE CONVECTION OVERALL TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE BEST MID
LVL SUPPORT DURING THE TIME FRAME FOR LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO BE I-81 AND EAST. PWAT VALUES TODAY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 1.4 INCHES GIVE OR TAKE. WITH THAT BEING SAID WE COULD
SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TODAY WITH THE CONVECTION.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WE MAY REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW TILL
LATE IN THE NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE AXIS MOVES EAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG SHOWERS MAY
LINGER.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S AND ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE
80S THIS AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR 14 DECREES CELSIUS.
TEMPS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 60S AS DENSE CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT STRONG COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY FRIDAY THE UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AND
THE LARGE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL
MOVE EAST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE MID-WEST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN OUR PATTERN ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. WEAK SPURTS OF ENERGY WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY AND DUE TO THE COMBINATIONS OF LINGERING LOW LVL
MOISTURE... WEAK WAVES... AND HEATING FROM THE SUN... SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WEAK VORTICITY MAXS WILL
TRAVEL ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT AND MAY GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CWA. BUT... BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THE UPPR RIDGE WILL BE FURTHER EAST AND SUBSIDENCE WILL START TO
TAKE CONTROL OF THE AREA. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THUS... BY SATURDAY
EVENING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE GONE.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL RISE INTO THE 70S EACH
AFTERNOON AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF STATES NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS COMBINED WITH SFC HIGH PRES ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
PROVIDE A PLEASANT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MAY BRING THE
AREA SOME SHOWERS.

245 PM UPDATE...
WPC GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WITH 588 DM
HEIGHTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS RIDGE WITH VERY
QUIET WEATHER. WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR
THE SURFACE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST,
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. EVENTUALLY THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MUCH, MUCH WARMER AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KELM WHERE CONDITIONS NEAR AIRPORT MINS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 14Z
AND KBGM WHERE LOW MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST UNTIL 14Z. BY MID
MORNING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN LAKES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. FOR THE NYS TERMINALS INCLUDED PREVAILING MVFR
SHOWERS FROM 18Z-00Z, AT KAVP 21Z-03Z. MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AGAIN DUE TO RAINFALL AND WEAK MIXING. AT
KELM DENSE FOG WILL BE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06Z.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING THEN
LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRI NGT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA.
FRI NGT...IFR FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY FOG AT KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...HEDEN/RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 211048
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
648 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE POTENT UPPR LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER NEW
YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS THIS MORNING HAVE PRETTY MUCH TAPERED OFF AND JUST AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE HERE ARE STILL GOING. PATCHY VALLEY FOG
HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THIS TO MIX OUT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

THE UPPR LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
THAT HAVE BROUGHT US SHOWERS YESTERDAY WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN TODAY
AND DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARDS NY. AS THIS LOW DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH IT
WILL EJECT A VORTICITY MAXIMA ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARE LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON.

ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOPS TODAY WILL HAVE MORE INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH THAN YESTERDAY. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
2500 J/KG... BELIEVE THIS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH BUT VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG AREN`T TOO UNREASONABLE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL NY AND 30 OVER
NORTHEAST PA. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW... AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OVER NE PA WHERE THE SHEAR IS A LITTLE
STRONGER. WITH THE MENTIONED STATEMENTS ABOVE... EXPECT TO SEE
MORE CONVECTION OVERALL TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE BEST MID
LVL SUPPORT DURING THE TIME FRAME FOR LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO BE I-81 AND EAST. PWAT VALUES TODAY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 1.4 INCHES GIVE OR TAKE. WITH THAT BEING SAID WE COULD
SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TODAY WITH THE CONVECTION.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WE MAY REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW TILL
LATE IN THE NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE AXIS MOVES EAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG SHOWERS MAY
LINGER.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S AND ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE
80S THIS AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR 14 DECREES CELSIUS.
TEMPS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 60S AS DENSE CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT STRONG COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY FRIDAY THE UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AND
THE LARGE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL
MOVE EAST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE MID-WEST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN OUR PATTERN ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. WEAK SPURTS OF ENERGY WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY AND DUE TO THE COMBINATIONS OF LINGERING LOW LVL
MOISTURE... WEAK WAVES... AND HEATING FROM THE SUN... SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WEAK VORTICITY MAXS WILL
TRAVEL ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT AND MAY GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CWA. BUT... BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THE UPPR RIDGE WILL BE FURTHER EAST AND SUBSIDENCE WILL START TO
TAKE CONTROL OF THE AREA. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THUS... BY SATURDAY
EVENING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE GONE.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL RISE INTO THE 70S EACH
AFTERNOON AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF STATES NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS COMBINED WITH SFC HIGH PRES ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
PROVIDE A PLEASANT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MAY BRING THE
AREA SOME SHOWERS.

245 PM UPDATE...
WPC GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WITH 588 DM
HEIGHTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS RIDGE WITH VERY
QUIET WEATHER. WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR
THE SURFACE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST,
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. EVENTUALLY THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MUCH, MUCH WARMER AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KELM WHERE CONDITIONS NEAR AIRPORT MINS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 14Z
AND KBGM WHERE LOW MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST UNTIL 14Z. BY MID
MORNING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN LAKES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. FOR THE NYS TERMINALS INCLUDED PREVAILING MVFR
SHOWERS FROM 18Z-00Z, AT KAVP 21Z-03Z. MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AGAIN DUE TO RAINFALL AND WEAK MIXING. AT
KELM DENSE FOG WILL BE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06Z.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING THEN
LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRI NGT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA.
FRI NGT...IFR FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY FOG AT KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...HEDEN/RRM
AVIATION...RRM






000
FXUS61 KALY 211040
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 630 AM...A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY FROM THE EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS...EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY ACROSS THIS
REGION FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING UNTIL THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVES FURTHER EAST. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING. LATER THIS MORNING POPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
FOR A TIME...BUT BY LATER TODAY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ONCE AGAIN...AS ADDITIONAL MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING BEGINS IMPACT THE REGION...AND CHANCE POPS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

IT WILL BE CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. POPS ARE SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS WE ENTER THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST.

WPC GUIDANCE/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SRN QUEBEC AND
NRN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT...AND BE CENTERED OVER  THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY...AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND PLAINS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP DOWN
STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE LONG TERM STRETCH.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED FORECASTS WED
PM INTO WED NIGHT NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND
WITH 50S FOR LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M70S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...H850 TEMP MODERATE TO +13C TO +14C WITH DECENT
MIXING...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.  LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 50S TO L60S.  WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON WITH
M70S TO L80S FOR HIGHS...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY FROM KALB-KPSF
NORTHWARD WHERE A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS
GOING MUCH OF THE MORNING. OTHER SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KPOU BTWN
09Z-12Z WITH LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED FROM KALB SOUTH AND
EAST IN THE EARLY PM...BUT SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN BTWN 21Z-00Z
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/HRRR. SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE PROBS ARE STILL BELOW 50 PERCENT...SO WE WILL
LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES ADDRESS THE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES.

THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-8 KTS. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
TONIGHT AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT...DUE TO THE WET WEATHER
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 MPH TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.

AS OF 400 AM...RADAR INDICATES THAT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN SINCE WEDNESDAY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SARATOGA REGION. GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH TO ONE AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH IN
MANY AREAS...BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ANOTHER TWO TO THREE INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS BEFORE THE
RAIN BEGAN...THE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL GENERALLY BE
MINOR AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. BE.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM














000
FXUS61 KALY 211040
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 630 AM...A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY FROM THE EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS...EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY ACROSS THIS
REGION FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING UNTIL THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVES FURTHER EAST. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING. LATER THIS MORNING POPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
FOR A TIME...BUT BY LATER TODAY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ONCE AGAIN...AS ADDITIONAL MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING BEGINS IMPACT THE REGION...AND CHANCE POPS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

IT WILL BE CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. POPS ARE SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS WE ENTER THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST.

WPC GUIDANCE/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SRN QUEBEC AND
NRN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT...AND BE CENTERED OVER  THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY...AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND PLAINS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP DOWN
STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE LONG TERM STRETCH.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED FORECASTS WED
PM INTO WED NIGHT NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND
WITH 50S FOR LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M70S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...H850 TEMP MODERATE TO +13C TO +14C WITH DECENT
MIXING...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.  LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 50S TO L60S.  WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON WITH
M70S TO L80S FOR HIGHS...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY FROM KALB-KPSF
NORTHWARD WHERE A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS
GOING MUCH OF THE MORNING. OTHER SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KPOU BTWN
09Z-12Z WITH LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED FROM KALB SOUTH AND
EAST IN THE EARLY PM...BUT SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN BTWN 21Z-00Z
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/HRRR. SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE PROBS ARE STILL BELOW 50 PERCENT...SO WE WILL
LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES ADDRESS THE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES.

THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-8 KTS. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
TONIGHT AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT...DUE TO THE WET WEATHER
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 MPH TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.

AS OF 400 AM...RADAR INDICATES THAT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN SINCE WEDNESDAY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SARATOGA REGION. GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH TO ONE AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH IN
MANY AREAS...BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ANOTHER TWO TO THREE INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS BEFORE THE
RAIN BEGAN...THE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL GENERALLY BE
MINOR AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. BE.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM















000
FXUS61 KOKX 211019
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
619 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TOD DAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
FROM EASTERN CANADA. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST UPDATED TO REMOVE FOG THIS MRNG. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE REGION WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER NE NJ...LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO NYC. THESE AREAS MAY ALSO SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AS MUCAP ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST...A
FEW HUNDRED TO JUST OVER 1000 J/KG. WITH A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
LIFTING MECHANISM...NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE.

CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE MOST PART. GENERALLY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES TONIGHT AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND A SHORTWAVE
MOVES AROUND ITS BASE. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES...AND THUS JUST
PLAIN SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN EARLY TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A MOIST AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS
WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS WILL COME BACK DOWN TO THE LOWER 60S
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THIS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN MEAN AN EVEN
COOLER DAY ON FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. SOME UPPER 70S FOR THE NYC
METRO REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO END FROM EAST TO
WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOLID MODEL CONSENSUS THRU TUE. HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA THEN
STRENGTHENS AS THE UPR RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD. ON WED...THE ECMWF
BRINGS A CDFNT CLOSE...BUT THE GFS KEEPS THE FEATURE OFF THE LOCAL
MAP. HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLN AS THIS FITS A FAST MODEL
BIAS AT THIS TIME RANGE.

A MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS IS LOCKED IN FRI NGT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SAT. VIRTUALLY NO LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER...SO HAVE ONLY FCST
SPRINKLES. THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLR IN THE AFTN FROM NE TO SW AS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN.

DRY WITH LGT WINDS SUN-WED COURTESY OF THE HIGH. SOME CIRRUS AT
TIMES.

TEMPS BLW NORMAL SAT...THEN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE
SUN-TUE AS HEIGHTS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
KGON...GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND
ANY SHOWER COULD REDUCE CEILINGS OR VSBYS TO MVFR BRIEFLY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NYC METRO AND NORTH AND WEST.

POSSIBLE HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. BEST CHANCE NYC METRO AND NORTH AND WEST.

LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAYTIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST BEFORE NOON. TIMING COULD BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
MORNING...JUST TO THE RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.TONIGHT...VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.FRI-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUND AND HARBOR. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA
BRIEFLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA LVLS FRI NGT...THEN DIMINISH DURING THE DAY
ON SAT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT LATE FRI
NGT...THEN LINGER THRU MOST OF SAT BEFORE SUBSIDING. A SCA MAY BE
NEEDED ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN FRI NGT AND SAT. OTHERWISE...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE BLW SCA LVLS SUN-AT LEAST TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE NJ AND INTO NYC. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT BASIN AVERAGED
TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT...AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE ISOLATED. TRACE AMOUNTS OF PCPN ARE POSSIBLE FRI NGT INTO SAT.
IT WILL THEN REMAIN DRY THRU THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP







000
FXUS61 KOKX 211019
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
619 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TOD DAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
FROM EASTERN CANADA. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST UPDATED TO REMOVE FOG THIS MRNG. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE REGION WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER NE NJ...LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO NYC. THESE AREAS MAY ALSO SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AS MUCAP ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST...A
FEW HUNDRED TO JUST OVER 1000 J/KG. WITH A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
LIFTING MECHANISM...NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE.

CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE MOST PART. GENERALLY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES TONIGHT AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND A SHORTWAVE
MOVES AROUND ITS BASE. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES...AND THUS JUST
PLAIN SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN EARLY TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A MOIST AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS
WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS WILL COME BACK DOWN TO THE LOWER 60S
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THIS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN MEAN AN EVEN
COOLER DAY ON FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. SOME UPPER 70S FOR THE NYC
METRO REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO END FROM EAST TO
WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOLID MODEL CONSENSUS THRU TUE. HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA THEN
STRENGTHENS AS THE UPR RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD. ON WED...THE ECMWF
BRINGS A CDFNT CLOSE...BUT THE GFS KEEPS THE FEATURE OFF THE LOCAL
MAP. HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLN AS THIS FITS A FAST MODEL
BIAS AT THIS TIME RANGE.

A MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS IS LOCKED IN FRI NGT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SAT. VIRTUALLY NO LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER...SO HAVE ONLY FCST
SPRINKLES. THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLR IN THE AFTN FROM NE TO SW AS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN.

DRY WITH LGT WINDS SUN-WED COURTESY OF THE HIGH. SOME CIRRUS AT
TIMES.

TEMPS BLW NORMAL SAT...THEN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE
SUN-TUE AS HEIGHTS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
KGON...GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND
ANY SHOWER COULD REDUCE CEILINGS OR VSBYS TO MVFR BRIEFLY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NYC METRO AND NORTH AND WEST.

POSSIBLE HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. BEST CHANCE NYC METRO AND NORTH AND WEST.

LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAYTIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST BEFORE NOON. TIMING COULD BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
MORNING...JUST TO THE RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.TONIGHT...VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.FRI-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUND AND HARBOR. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA
BRIEFLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA LVLS FRI NGT...THEN DIMINISH DURING THE DAY
ON SAT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT LATE FRI
NGT...THEN LINGER THRU MOST OF SAT BEFORE SUBSIDING. A SCA MAY BE
NEEDED ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN FRI NGT AND SAT. OTHERWISE...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE BLW SCA LVLS SUN-AT LEAST TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE NJ AND INTO NYC. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT BASIN AVERAGED
TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT...AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE ISOLATED. TRACE AMOUNTS OF PCPN ARE POSSIBLE FRI NGT INTO SAT.
IT WILL THEN REMAIN DRY THRU THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP








000
FXUS61 KALY 210852
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
450 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 430 AM...THE BACK EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS
AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AHEAD OF THE BACK EDGE THERE WERE
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIKELY POPS OR HIGHER ARE FORECAST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...AND LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE POPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN SLOWLY MOVES EAST. BY LATER
TODAY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST AREA ONCE
AGAIN AS ADDITIONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING BEGINS IMPACT THE
REGION...AND CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

IT WILL BE CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. POPS ARE SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS WE ENTER THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST.

WPC GUIDANCE/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SRN QUEBEC AND
NRN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT...AND BE CENTERED OVER  THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY...AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND PLAINS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP DOWN
STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE LONG TERM STRETCH.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED FORECASTS WED
PM INTO WED NIGHT NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND
WITH 50S FOR LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M70S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...H850 TEMP MODERATE TO +13C TO +14C WITH DECENT
MIXING...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.  LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 50S TO L60S.  WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON WITH
M70S TO L80S FOR HIGHS...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY FROM KALB-KPSF
NORTHWARD WHERE A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS
GOING MUCH OF THE MORNING. OTHER SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KPOU BTWN
09Z-12Z WITH LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED FROM KALB SOUTH AND
EAST IN THE EARLY PM...BUT SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN BTWN 21Z-00Z
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/HRRR. SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE PROBS ARE STILL BELOW 50 PERCENT...SO WE WILL
LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES ADDRESS THE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES.

THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-8 KTS. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
TONIGHT AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT...DUE TO THE WET WEATHER
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 MPH TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.

AS OF 400 AM...RADAR INDICATES THAT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN SINCE WEDNESDAY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SARATOGA REGION. GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH TO ONE AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH IN
MANY AREAS...BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ANOTHER TWO TO THREE INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS BEFORE THE
RAIN BEGAN...THE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL GENERALLY BE
MINOR AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. BE.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM











000
FXUS61 KALY 210849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
450 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 430 AM...THE BACK EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS
AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AHEAD OF THE BACK EDGE THERE WERE
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIKELY POPS OR HIGHER ARE FORECAST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...AND LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE POPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN SLOWLY MOVES EAST. BY LATER
TODAY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST AREA ONCE
AGAIN AS ADDITIONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING BEGINS IMPACT THE
REGION...AND CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

IT WILL BE CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. POPS ARE SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS WE ENTER THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST.

WPC GUIDANCE/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SRN QUEBEC AND
NRN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT...AND BE CENTERED OVER  THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY...AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND PLAINS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP DOWN
STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE LONG TERM STRETCH.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED FORECASTS WED
PM INTO WED NIGHT NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND
WITH 50S FOR LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M70S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...H850 TEMP MODERATE TO +13C TO +14C WITH DECENT
MIXING...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.  LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 50S TO L60S.  WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON WITH
M70S TO L80S FOR HIGHS...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY FROM KALB-KPSF
NORTHWARD WHERE A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS
GOING MUCH OF THE MORNING. OTHER SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KPOU BTWN
09Z-12Z WITH LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED FROM KALB SOUTH AND
EAST IN THE EARLY PM...BUT SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN BTWN 21Z-00Z
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/HRRR. SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE PROBS ARE STILL BELOW 50 PERCENT...SO WE WILL
LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES ADDRESS THE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES.

THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-8 KTS. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
TONIGHT AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT...DUE TO THE WET WEATHER
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 MPH TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.

AS OF 400 AM...RADAR INDICATES THAT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN SINCE WEDNESDAY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SARATOGA REGION. GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH TO ONE AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH IN
MANY AREAS...BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ANOTHER TWO TO THREE INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS BEFORE THE
RAIN BEGAN...THE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL GENERALLY BE
MINOR AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. BE.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM











000
FXUS61 KALY 210849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
450 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 430 AM...THE BACK EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS
AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AHEAD OF THE BACK EDGE THERE WERE
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIKELY POPS OR HIGHER ARE FORECAST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...AND LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE POPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN SLOWLY MOVES EAST. BY LATER
TODAY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST AREA ONCE
AGAIN AS ADDITIONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING BEGINS IMPACT THE
REGION...AND CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

IT WILL BE CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. POPS ARE SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS WE ENTER THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST.

WPC GUIDANCE/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SRN QUEBEC AND
NRN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT...AND BE CENTERED OVER  THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY...AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND PLAINS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP DOWN
STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE LONG TERM STRETCH.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED FORECASTS WED
PM INTO WED NIGHT NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND
WITH 50S FOR LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M70S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...H850 TEMP MODERATE TO +13C TO +14C WITH DECENT
MIXING...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.  LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 50S TO L60S.  WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON WITH
M70S TO L80S FOR HIGHS...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY FROM KALB-KPSF
NORTHWARD WHERE A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS
GOING MUCH OF THE MORNING. OTHER SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KPOU BTWN
09Z-12Z WITH LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED FROM KALB SOUTH AND
EAST IN THE EARLY PM...BUT SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN BTWN 21Z-00Z
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/HRRR. SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE PROBS ARE STILL BELOW 50 PERCENT...SO WE WILL
LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES ADDRESS THE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES.

THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-8 KTS. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
TONIGHT AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT...DUE TO THE WET WEATHER
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 MPH TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.

AS OF 400 AM...RADAR INDICATES THAT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN SINCE WEDNESDAY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SARATOGA REGION. GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH TO ONE AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH IN
MANY AREAS...BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ANOTHER TWO TO THREE INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS BEFORE THE
RAIN BEGAN...THE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL GENERALLY BE
MINOR AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. BE.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM











000
FXUS61 KALY 210849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
450 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 430 AM...THE BACK EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS
AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AHEAD OF THE BACK EDGE THERE WERE
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIKELY POPS OR HIGHER ARE FORECAST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...AND LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE POPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN SLOWLY MOVES EAST. BY LATER
TODAY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST AREA ONCE
AGAIN AS ADDITIONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING BEGINS IMPACT THE
REGION...AND CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

IT WILL BE CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. POPS ARE SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS WE ENTER THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST.

WPC GUIDANCE/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SRN QUEBEC AND
NRN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT...AND BE CENTERED OVER  THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY...AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND PLAINS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP DOWN
STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE LONG TERM STRETCH.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED FORECASTS WED
PM INTO WED NIGHT NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND
WITH 50S FOR LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M70S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...H850 TEMP MODERATE TO +13C TO +14C WITH DECENT
MIXING...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.  LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 50S TO L60S.  WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON WITH
M70S TO L80S FOR HIGHS...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY FROM KALB-KPSF
NORTHWARD WHERE A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS
GOING MUCH OF THE MORNING. OTHER SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KPOU BTWN
09Z-12Z WITH LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED FROM KALB SOUTH AND
EAST IN THE EARLY PM...BUT SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN BTWN 21Z-00Z
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/HRRR. SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE PROBS ARE STILL BELOW 50 PERCENT...SO WE WILL
LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES ADDRESS THE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES.

THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-8 KTS. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
TONIGHT AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT...DUE TO THE WET WEATHER
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 MPH TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.

AS OF 400 AM...RADAR INDICATES THAT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN SINCE WEDNESDAY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SARATOGA REGION. GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH TO ONE AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH IN
MANY AREAS...BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ANOTHER TWO TO THREE INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS BEFORE THE
RAIN BEGAN...THE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL GENERALLY BE
MINOR AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. BE.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM











000
FXUS61 KALY 210849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
450 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 430 AM...THE BACK EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS
AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AHEAD OF THE BACK EDGE THERE WERE
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIKELY POPS OR HIGHER ARE FORECAST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...AND LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE POPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN SLOWLY MOVES EAST. BY LATER
TODAY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST AREA ONCE
AGAIN AS ADDITIONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING BEGINS IMPACT THE
REGION...AND CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

IT WILL BE CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. POPS ARE SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS WE ENTER THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST.

WPC GUIDANCE/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SRN QUEBEC AND
NRN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT...AND BE CENTERED OVER  THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY...AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND PLAINS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP DOWN
STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE LONG TERM STRETCH.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED FORECASTS WED
PM INTO WED NIGHT NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND
WITH 50S FOR LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M70S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...H850 TEMP MODERATE TO +13C TO +14C WITH DECENT
MIXING...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.  LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 50S TO L60S.  WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON WITH
M70S TO L80S FOR HIGHS...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY FROM KALB-KPSF
NORTHWARD WHERE A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS
GOING MUCH OF THE MORNING. OTHER SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KPOU BTWN
09Z-12Z WITH LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED FROM KALB SOUTH AND
EAST IN THE EARLY PM...BUT SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN BTWN 21Z-00Z
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/HRRR. SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE PROBS ARE STILL BELOW 50 PERCENT...SO WE WILL
LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES ADDRESS THE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES.

THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-8 KTS. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
TONIGHT AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT...DUE TO THE WET WEATHER
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 MPH TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.

AS OF 400 AM...RADAR INDICATES THAT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN SINCE WEDNESDAY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SARATOGA REGION. GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH TO ONE AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH IN
MANY AREAS...BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ANOTHER TWO TO THREE INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS BEFORE THE
RAIN BEGAN...THE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL GENERALLY BE
MINOR AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. BE.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM











000
FXUS61 KBUF 210835
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
435 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE A WARM FRONT LIES. A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER LAKE HURON. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE
BETWEEN GEORGIAN BAY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AN ILL DEFINED
WARM FRONT LIES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND
THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...GENERALLY IN
AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL THE PRECEDING DAY. THIS PATCHY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY MORNING WITH THE RISING SUN/MIXING HEIGHTS.

FOR TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND BOUNDARY
LAYER CONVERGENT CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE LOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM. ACTIVITY
WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE WEAK WARM FRONT AS
WELL AS DEEPER MOISTURE. ACROSS WNY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATEST.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 HPA LAYER
WILL DIMINISH CONVECTIVE SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS FAR WNY. THEN AS THIS
DRIER LAYER PUSHES EASTWARD IN COMBINATION OF THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOWERS AND ANY
REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE WINDS
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE
THICKEST ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND HILLS OF SW NYS.

AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THE COOLEST 24-HR CHANGE TO THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE TODAY WILL
START CLOUDY AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY WHEN SOME SUNSHINE STARTED THE
DAY. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH A
CONTINUED MUGGINESS FEEL TO THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE FOG
FORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...BUT THIS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS. THERE WILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY ON FRIDAY...NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIN AND NARROW CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUBTLE AREA WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY. NAM/SREF/RGEM/GFS CONSENSUS QPF
ALSO KEYS ON THIS REGION...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE SPARSE
SUPPORTING JUST CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE...A DEVELOPING NE FLOW OFF
LAKE ONTARIO MAY HELP SHADOW THE NIAGARA FRONTIER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
STRONGER CELLS WILL PROBABLY HAVE LIGHTNING...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPARSE IN COVERAGE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS SATURDAY...BUT THESE SHOULD END QUICKLY SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER SEASONABLE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE A TAD WARMER WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE ALLOWING A FEW SPOTS TO
REACH 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE SHOULD START TO BREAK DOWN BY
MID-WEEK...BUT EVEN AS IT DOES THERE IS ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NICE STRETCH OF
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND AMPLE SUNSHINE.
MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 06Z MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH A MOIST AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING
IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
WHERE RAIN FELL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WNY AREAS EXPECT MAINLY VFR OR HIGH END MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

ALL AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE PEAK OF DAYTIME HEATING
WITH A THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS
OF THE TAF CYCLE...WITH THE REGION BECOMING MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT SOME
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IS LIKELY WITH MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS LAKE
ONTARIO TODAY...AND THEN DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE LOWER
LAKES REGION. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THIS LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 210835
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
435 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE A WARM FRONT LIES. A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER LAKE HURON. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE
BETWEEN GEORGIAN BAY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AN ILL DEFINED
WARM FRONT LIES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND
THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...GENERALLY IN
AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL THE PRECEDING DAY. THIS PATCHY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY MORNING WITH THE RISING SUN/MIXING HEIGHTS.

FOR TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND BOUNDARY
LAYER CONVERGENT CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE LOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM. ACTIVITY
WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE WEAK WARM FRONT AS
WELL AS DEEPER MOISTURE. ACROSS WNY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATEST.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 HPA LAYER
WILL DIMINISH CONVECTIVE SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS FAR WNY. THEN AS THIS
DRIER LAYER PUSHES EASTWARD IN COMBINATION OF THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOWERS AND ANY
REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE WINDS
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE
THICKEST ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND HILLS OF SW NYS.

AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THE COOLEST 24-HR CHANGE TO THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE TODAY WILL
START CLOUDY AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY WHEN SOME SUNSHINE STARTED THE
DAY. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH A
CONTINUED MUGGINESS FEEL TO THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE FOG
FORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...BUT THIS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS. THERE WILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY ON FRIDAY...NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIN AND NARROW CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUBTLE AREA WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY. NAM/SREF/RGEM/GFS CONSENSUS QPF
ALSO KEYS ON THIS REGION...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE SPARSE
SUPPORTING JUST CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE...A DEVELOPING NE FLOW OFF
LAKE ONTARIO MAY HELP SHADOW THE NIAGARA FRONTIER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
STRONGER CELLS WILL PROBABLY HAVE LIGHTNING...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPARSE IN COVERAGE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS SATURDAY...BUT THESE SHOULD END QUICKLY SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER SEASONABLE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE A TAD WARMER WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE ALLOWING A FEW SPOTS TO
REACH 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE SHOULD START TO BREAK DOWN BY
MID-WEEK...BUT EVEN AS IT DOES THERE IS ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NICE STRETCH OF
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND AMPLE SUNSHINE.
MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 06Z MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH A MOIST AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING
IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
WHERE RAIN FELL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WNY AREAS EXPECT MAINLY VFR OR HIGH END MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

ALL AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE PEAK OF DAYTIME HEATING
WITH A THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS
OF THE TAF CYCLE...WITH THE REGION BECOMING MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT SOME
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IS LIKELY WITH MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS LAKE
ONTARIO TODAY...AND THEN DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE LOWER
LAKES REGION. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THIS LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBGM 210833
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
433 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE POTENT UPPR LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER NEW
YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS THIS MORNING HAVE PRETTY MUCH TAPERED OFF AND JUST AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE HERE ARE STILL GOING. PATCHY VALLEY FOG
HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THIS TO MIX OUT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

THE UPPR LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
THAT HAVE BROUGHT US SHOWERS YESTERDAY WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN TODAY
AND DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARDS NY. AS THIS LOW DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH IT
WILL EJECT A VORTICITY MAXIMA ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARE LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON.

ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOPS TODAY WILL HAVE MORE INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH THAN YESTERDAY. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
2500 J/KG... BELIEVE THIS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH BUT VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG AREN`T TOO UNREASONABLE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL NY AND 30 OVER
NORTHEAST PA. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW... AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OVER NE PA WHERE THE SHEAR IS A LITTLE
STRONGER. WITH THE MENTIONED STATEMENTS ABOVE... EXPECT TO SEE
MORE CONVECTION OVERALL TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE BEST MID
LVL SUPPORT DURING THE TIME FRAME FOR LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO BE I-81 AND EAST. PWAT VALUES TODAY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 1.4 INCHES GIVE OR TAKE. WITH THAT BEING SAID WE COULD
SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TODAY WITH THE CONVECTION.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WE MAY REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW TILL
LATE IN THE NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE AXIS MOVES EAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG SHOWERS MAY
LINGER.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S AND ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE
80S THIS AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR 14 DECREES CELSIUS.
TEMPS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 60S AS DENSE CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT STRONG COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY FRIDAY THE UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AND
THE LARGE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL
MOVE EAST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE MID-WEST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN OUR PATTERN ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. WEAK SPURTS OF ENERGY WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY AND DUE TO THE COMBINATIONS OF LINGERING LOW LVL
MOISTURE... WEAK WAVES... AND HEATING FROM THE SUN... SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WEAK VORTICITY MAXS WILL
TRAVEL ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT AND MAY GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CWA. BUT... BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THE UPPR RIDGE WILL BE FURTHER EAST AND SUBSIDENCE WILL START TO
TAKE CONTROL OF THE AREA. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THUS... BY SATURDAY
EVENING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE GONE.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL RISE INTO THE 70S EACH
AFTERNOON AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF STATES NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS COMBINED WITH SFC HIGH PRES ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
PROVIDE A PLEASANT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MAY BRING THE
AREA SOME SHOWERS.

245 PM UPDATE...
WPC GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WITH 588 DM
HEIGHTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS RIDGE WITH VERY
QUIET WEATHER. WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR
THE SURFACE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST,
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. EVENTUALLY THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MUCH, MUCH WARMER AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAINFALL THIS EVENING COMBINED WITH WEAK MIXING OVERNIGHT WILL
RESULT IN CONDITIONS LOWERING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BY 09Z. AT
KAVP CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW MVFR CATEGORY. AT
KELM, DENSE FOG WILL BRING CONDITIONS CLOSE TO AIRPORT MINS THROUGH
MID MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING BUT
BY 15Z IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS LIKELY. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. FOR THE NYS TERMINALS INCLUDED PREVAILING MVFR
SHOWERS FROM 18Z-00Z, AT KAVP 21Z-03Z. MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AGAIN DUE TO RAINFALL AND WEAK MIXING.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS THEN LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRI NGT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA.
FRI NGT...IFR FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY FOG AT KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...HEDEN/RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 210833
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
433 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE POTENT UPPR LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER NEW
YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS THIS MORNING HAVE PRETTY MUCH TAPERED OFF AND JUST AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE HERE ARE STILL GOING. PATCHY VALLEY FOG
HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THIS TO MIX OUT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

THE UPPR LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
THAT HAVE BROUGHT US SHOWERS YESTERDAY WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN TODAY
AND DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARDS NY. AS THIS LOW DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH IT
WILL EJECT A VORTICITY MAXIMA ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARE LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON.

ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOPS TODAY WILL HAVE MORE INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH THAN YESTERDAY. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
2500 J/KG... BELIEVE THIS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH BUT VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG AREN`T TOO UNREASONABLE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL NY AND 30 OVER
NORTHEAST PA. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW... AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OVER NE PA WHERE THE SHEAR IS A LITTLE
STRONGER. WITH THE MENTIONED STATEMENTS ABOVE... EXPECT TO SEE
MORE CONVECTION OVERALL TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE BEST MID
LVL SUPPORT DURING THE TIME FRAME FOR LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO BE I-81 AND EAST. PWAT VALUES TODAY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 1.4 INCHES GIVE OR TAKE. WITH THAT BEING SAID WE COULD
SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TODAY WITH THE CONVECTION.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WE MAY REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW TILL
LATE IN THE NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE AXIS MOVES EAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG SHOWERS MAY
LINGER.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S AND ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE
80S THIS AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR 14 DECREES CELSIUS.
TEMPS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 60S AS DENSE CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT STRONG COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY FRIDAY THE UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AND
THE LARGE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL
MOVE EAST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE MID-WEST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN OUR PATTERN ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. WEAK SPURTS OF ENERGY WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY AND DUE TO THE COMBINATIONS OF LINGERING LOW LVL
MOISTURE... WEAK WAVES... AND HEATING FROM THE SUN... SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WEAK VORTICITY MAXS WILL
TRAVEL ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT AND MAY GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CWA. BUT... BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THE UPPR RIDGE WILL BE FURTHER EAST AND SUBSIDENCE WILL START TO
TAKE CONTROL OF THE AREA. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THUS... BY SATURDAY
EVENING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE GONE.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL RISE INTO THE 70S EACH
AFTERNOON AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF STATES NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS COMBINED WITH SFC HIGH PRES ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
PROVIDE A PLEASANT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MAY BRING THE
AREA SOME SHOWERS.

245 PM UPDATE...
WPC GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WITH 588 DM
HEIGHTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS RIDGE WITH VERY
QUIET WEATHER. WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR
THE SURFACE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST,
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. EVENTUALLY THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MUCH, MUCH WARMER AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAINFALL THIS EVENING COMBINED WITH WEAK MIXING OVERNIGHT WILL
RESULT IN CONDITIONS LOWERING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BY 09Z. AT
KAVP CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW MVFR CATEGORY. AT
KELM, DENSE FOG WILL BRING CONDITIONS CLOSE TO AIRPORT MINS THROUGH
MID MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING BUT
BY 15Z IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS LIKELY. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. FOR THE NYS TERMINALS INCLUDED PREVAILING MVFR
SHOWERS FROM 18Z-00Z, AT KAVP 21Z-03Z. MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AGAIN DUE TO RAINFALL AND WEAK MIXING.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS THEN LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRI NGT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA.
FRI NGT...IFR FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY FOG AT KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...HEDEN/RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 210833
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
433 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE POTENT UPPR LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER NEW
YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS THIS MORNING HAVE PRETTY MUCH TAPERED OFF AND JUST AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE HERE ARE STILL GOING. PATCHY VALLEY FOG
HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THIS TO MIX OUT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

THE UPPR LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
THAT HAVE BROUGHT US SHOWERS YESTERDAY WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN TODAY
AND DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARDS NY. AS THIS LOW DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH IT
WILL EJECT A VORTICITY MAXIMA ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARE LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON.

ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOPS TODAY WILL HAVE MORE INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH THAN YESTERDAY. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
2500 J/KG... BELIEVE THIS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH BUT VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG AREN`T TOO UNREASONABLE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL NY AND 30 OVER
NORTHEAST PA. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW... AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OVER NE PA WHERE THE SHEAR IS A LITTLE
STRONGER. WITH THE MENTIONED STATEMENTS ABOVE... EXPECT TO SEE
MORE CONVECTION OVERALL TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE BEST MID
LVL SUPPORT DURING THE TIME FRAME FOR LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO BE I-81 AND EAST. PWAT VALUES TODAY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 1.4 INCHES GIVE OR TAKE. WITH THAT BEING SAID WE COULD
SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TODAY WITH THE CONVECTION.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WE MAY REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW TILL
LATE IN THE NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE AXIS MOVES EAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG SHOWERS MAY
LINGER.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S AND ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE
80S THIS AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR 14 DECREES CELSIUS.
TEMPS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 60S AS DENSE CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT STRONG COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY FRIDAY THE UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AND
THE LARGE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL
MOVE EAST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE MID-WEST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN OUR PATTERN ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. WEAK SPURTS OF ENERGY WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY AND DUE TO THE COMBINATIONS OF LINGERING LOW LVL
MOISTURE... WEAK WAVES... AND HEATING FROM THE SUN... SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WEAK VORTICITY MAXS WILL
TRAVEL ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT AND MAY GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CWA. BUT... BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THE UPPR RIDGE WILL BE FURTHER EAST AND SUBSIDENCE WILL START TO
TAKE CONTROL OF THE AREA. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THUS... BY SATURDAY
EVENING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE GONE.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL RISE INTO THE 70S EACH
AFTERNOON AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF STATES NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS COMBINED WITH SFC HIGH PRES ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
PROVIDE A PLEASANT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MAY BRING THE
AREA SOME SHOWERS.

245 PM UPDATE...
WPC GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WITH 588 DM
HEIGHTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS RIDGE WITH VERY
QUIET WEATHER. WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR
THE SURFACE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST,
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. EVENTUALLY THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MUCH, MUCH WARMER AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAINFALL THIS EVENING COMBINED WITH WEAK MIXING OVERNIGHT WILL
RESULT IN CONDITIONS LOWERING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BY 09Z. AT
KAVP CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW MVFR CATEGORY. AT
KELM, DENSE FOG WILL BRING CONDITIONS CLOSE TO AIRPORT MINS THROUGH
MID MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING BUT
BY 15Z IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS LIKELY. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. FOR THE NYS TERMINALS INCLUDED PREVAILING MVFR
SHOWERS FROM 18Z-00Z, AT KAVP 21Z-03Z. MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AGAIN DUE TO RAINFALL AND WEAK MIXING.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS THEN LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRI NGT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA.
FRI NGT...IFR FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY FOG AT KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...HEDEN/RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 210833
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
433 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE POTENT UPPR LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER NEW
YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS THIS MORNING HAVE PRETTY MUCH TAPERED OFF AND JUST AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE HERE ARE STILL GOING. PATCHY VALLEY FOG
HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THIS TO MIX OUT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

THE UPPR LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
THAT HAVE BROUGHT US SHOWERS YESTERDAY WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN TODAY
AND DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARDS NY. AS THIS LOW DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH IT
WILL EJECT A VORTICITY MAXIMA ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARE LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON.

ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOPS TODAY WILL HAVE MORE INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH THAN YESTERDAY. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
2500 J/KG... BELIEVE THIS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH BUT VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG AREN`T TOO UNREASONABLE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL NY AND 30 OVER
NORTHEAST PA. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW... AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OVER NE PA WHERE THE SHEAR IS A LITTLE
STRONGER. WITH THE MENTIONED STATEMENTS ABOVE... EXPECT TO SEE
MORE CONVECTION OVERALL TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE BEST MID
LVL SUPPORT DURING THE TIME FRAME FOR LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO BE I-81 AND EAST. PWAT VALUES TODAY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 1.4 INCHES GIVE OR TAKE. WITH THAT BEING SAID WE COULD
SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TODAY WITH THE CONVECTION.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WE MAY REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW TILL
LATE IN THE NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE AXIS MOVES EAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG SHOWERS MAY
LINGER.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S AND ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE
80S THIS AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR 14 DECREES CELSIUS.
TEMPS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 60S AS DENSE CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT STRONG COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY FRIDAY THE UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AND
THE LARGE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL
MOVE EAST AND BECOME SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE MID-WEST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN OUR PATTERN ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. WEAK SPURTS OF ENERGY WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY AND DUE TO THE COMBINATIONS OF LINGERING LOW LVL
MOISTURE... WEAK WAVES... AND HEATING FROM THE SUN... SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WEAK VORTICITY MAXS WILL
TRAVEL ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT AND MAY GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CWA. BUT... BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THE UPPR RIDGE WILL BE FURTHER EAST AND SUBSIDENCE WILL START TO
TAKE CONTROL OF THE AREA. THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THUS... BY SATURDAY
EVENING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE GONE.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL RISE INTO THE 70S EACH
AFTERNOON AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF STATES NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS COMBINED WITH SFC HIGH PRES ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
PROVIDE A PLEASANT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MAY BRING THE
AREA SOME SHOWERS.

245 PM UPDATE...
WPC GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WITH 588 DM
HEIGHTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS RIDGE WITH VERY
QUIET WEATHER. WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR
THE SURFACE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST,
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. EVENTUALLY THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MUCH, MUCH WARMER AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAINFALL THIS EVENING COMBINED WITH WEAK MIXING OVERNIGHT WILL
RESULT IN CONDITIONS LOWERING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BY 09Z. AT
KAVP CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW MVFR CATEGORY. AT
KELM, DENSE FOG WILL BRING CONDITIONS CLOSE TO AIRPORT MINS THROUGH
MID MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING BUT
BY 15Z IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS LIKELY. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. FOR THE NYS TERMINALS INCLUDED PREVAILING MVFR
SHOWERS FROM 18Z-00Z, AT KAVP 21Z-03Z. MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AGAIN DUE TO RAINFALL AND WEAK MIXING.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS THEN LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRI NGT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA.
FRI NGT...IFR FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY FOG AT KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...HEDEN/RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 210831
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
431 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MOVING INTO WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME.
WILL GO WITH MAINLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY FOR
SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TODAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT
IN NOT SHOWING MUCH IF ANY QPF ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT
TODAY. BEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO SOUTHWEST VERMONT. DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN ON
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW TO MID 70S FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. STILL COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. HAVE
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... BUT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS SOUTH FROM
CANADA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AND
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY QUIET AND STRAIGHT FORWARD FCST FOR
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...WHICH WL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
WEDS INTO THURS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH REGARDS TO NORTHERN STREAM
TROF AND ASSOCIATED POSITION OF SFC COLD FRNT. GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDS THIS SUMMER FOR LESS WAA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF AND
FASTER SFC COLD FRNT ARRIVAL TIMES...WL USE THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTS A FLATTER MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND WARMEST 85H TEMPS STAYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 14-16C BY 00Z WEDS...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE WARMER CPV/SLV ON TUES. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY FLW WL INCREASE THE SFC DWPTS INTO THE
60S...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS ANTICIPATED. LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SHOW SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS SLIDING JUST TO OUR NORTH ON
TUES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE BORDER
ON TUES. WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM...GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGE ACRS OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF POTENT 5H
VORT IN DEVELOPING S/W TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND A SFC COLD
FRNT WL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BY WEDS. COOLER
TEMPS WL ALSO ARRIVE BY WEDS/THURS...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
FALLING BACK BTWN 8-10C BY 00Z THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT IF THE FRNT IS SLOWER AND THE GFS
THERMAL FIELDS ARE REALIZED THEN TEMPS WEDS COULD BE WELL INTO THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. I WOULD EXPECT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
POSITION OF TROF DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF RIDGE/ASSOCIATED
THERMAL PROFILES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY/MONDAY WL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS...RESULTING IN TYPICAL MID AUGUST WEATHER FOR OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY....CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY ATTM...SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE CPV. VIS/CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP IS MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. ALSO...NOTED SOME MVFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS AT MSS. THINKING THIS RAIN WL ARRIVE AT PBG BY 08Z AND INTO
BTV BY 09Z...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. SOUNDINGS SHOW LLVL
MOISTURE INCREASING AT SLK WITH SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BTWN 09Z-
14Z THIS MORNING. HAVE USED A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AND 200 TO 400 FT AGL WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL AT MPV OVERNIGHT. FOR
THURSDAY...EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH SOME PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE WITH MVFR VIS BTWN 3-5SM. WL USE TEMPO
GROUP TO COVER HEAVIER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT BTV/RUT. A SLOW CLRING
TREND WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 18Z...WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WL BE LIKELY AT SLK/MPV
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-
13Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES AT MSS AND RUTLAND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING
SYSTEM (ASOS) AT SAINT JOHNSBURY VERMONT (K1V4) NOW APPEARS TO BE
TRANSMITTING OBSERVATIONS AGAIN AS OF 0754Z (354 AM EDT).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WGH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 210831
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
431 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MOVING INTO WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME.
WILL GO WITH MAINLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY FOR
SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TODAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT
IN NOT SHOWING MUCH IF ANY QPF ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT
TODAY. BEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO SOUTHWEST VERMONT. DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN ON
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW TO MID 70S FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. STILL COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. HAVE
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... BUT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS SOUTH FROM
CANADA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AND
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY QUIET AND STRAIGHT FORWARD FCST FOR
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...WHICH WL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
WEDS INTO THURS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH REGARDS TO NORTHERN STREAM
TROF AND ASSOCIATED POSITION OF SFC COLD FRNT. GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDS THIS SUMMER FOR LESS WAA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF AND
FASTER SFC COLD FRNT ARRIVAL TIMES...WL USE THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTS A FLATTER MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND WARMEST 85H TEMPS STAYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 14-16C BY 00Z WEDS...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE WARMER CPV/SLV ON TUES. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY FLW WL INCREASE THE SFC DWPTS INTO THE
60S...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS ANTICIPATED. LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SHOW SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS SLIDING JUST TO OUR NORTH ON
TUES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE BORDER
ON TUES. WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM...GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGE ACRS OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF POTENT 5H
VORT IN DEVELOPING S/W TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND A SFC COLD
FRNT WL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BY WEDS. COOLER
TEMPS WL ALSO ARRIVE BY WEDS/THURS...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
FALLING BACK BTWN 8-10C BY 00Z THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT IF THE FRNT IS SLOWER AND THE GFS
THERMAL FIELDS ARE REALIZED THEN TEMPS WEDS COULD BE WELL INTO THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. I WOULD EXPECT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
POSITION OF TROF DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF RIDGE/ASSOCIATED
THERMAL PROFILES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY/MONDAY WL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS...RESULTING IN TYPICAL MID AUGUST WEATHER FOR OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY....CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY ATTM...SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE CPV. VIS/CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP IS MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. ALSO...NOTED SOME MVFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS AT MSS. THINKING THIS RAIN WL ARRIVE AT PBG BY 08Z AND INTO
BTV BY 09Z...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. SOUNDINGS SHOW LLVL
MOISTURE INCREASING AT SLK WITH SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BTWN 09Z-
14Z THIS MORNING. HAVE USED A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AND 200 TO 400 FT AGL WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL AT MPV OVERNIGHT. FOR
THURSDAY...EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH SOME PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE WITH MVFR VIS BTWN 3-5SM. WL USE TEMPO
GROUP TO COVER HEAVIER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT BTV/RUT. A SLOW CLRING
TREND WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 18Z...WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WL BE LIKELY AT SLK/MPV
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-
13Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES AT MSS AND RUTLAND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING
SYSTEM (ASOS) AT SAINT JOHNSBURY VERMONT (K1V4) NOW APPEARS TO BE
TRANSMITTING OBSERVATIONS AGAIN AS OF 0754Z (354 AM EDT).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WGH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 210803
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
403 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
VERMONT. DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THAT HIGH WILL STICK AROUND, GIVING
US A LONG STRING OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER THAT WILL LAST FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 144 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF
THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS
TIME ...WITH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT AND RAISED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW OPENS
UP/WEAKENS AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN NY /LIKELY POPS/ ON THURSDAY...THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VT IS ON THURSDAY. AIRMASS STILL
IS FAIRLY MOIST WITH PWS AROUND 1.5" WITH 12Z NAM SHOWING CAPE
VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. THE THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY IS
LIMITED GIVEN EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO LOSING
BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING GIVEN WEAKENING UPPER LOW. THEREFORE I`VE
ONLY GONE WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY. DESPITE 850 TEMPS OF +11 TO
+13C...OVERCAST WILL ONLY KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. OVERALL
DECREASING TREND IN POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCE
PIVOTS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

LARGE GRADIENT IN STORM TOTAL QPF /SPANNING WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY/. AMOUNTS RANGE FROM NIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM...UNDER 0.5" FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...TO UP TO 1.25" FOR
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD
QUEBEC AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
TO AN OPEN WAVE. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
BUT SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL WIN OUT BY LATE IN THE
DAY INTO THE EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MORE BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO
TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY QUIET AND STRAIGHT FORWARD FCST FOR
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...WHICH WL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
WEDS INTO THURS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH REGARDS TO NORTHERN STREAM
TROF AND ASSOCIATED POSITION OF SFC COLD FRNT. GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDS THIS SUMMER FOR LESS WAA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF AND
FASTER SFC COLD FRNT ARRIVAL TIMES...WL USE THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTS A FLATTER MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND WARMEST 85H TEMPS STAYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 14-16C BY 00Z WEDS...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE WARMER CPV/SLV ON TUES. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY FLW WL INCREASE THE SFC DWPTS INTO THE
60S...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS ANTICIPATED. LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SHOW SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS SLIDING JUST TO OUR NORTH ON
TUES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE BORDER
ON TUES. WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM...GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGE ACRS OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF POTENT 5H
VORT IN DEVELOPING S/W TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND A SFC COLD
FRNT WL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BY WEDS. COOLER
TEMPS WL ALSO ARRIVE BY WEDS/THURS...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
FALLING BACK BTWN 8-10C BY 00Z THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT IF THE FRNT IS SLOWER AND THE GFS
THERMAL FIELDS ARE REALIZED THEN TEMPS WEDS COULD BE WELL INTO THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. I WOULD EXPECT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
POSITION OF TROF DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF RIDGE/ASSOCIATED
THERMAL PROFILES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY/MONDAY WL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS...RESULTING IN TYPICAL MID AUGUST WEATHER FOR OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY....CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY ATTM...SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE CPV. VIS/CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP IS MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. ALSO...NOTED SOME MVFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS AT MSS. THINKING THIS RAIN WL ARRIVE AT PBG BY 08Z AND INTO
BTV BY 09Z...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. SOUNDINGS SHOW LLVL
MOISTURE INCREASING AT SLK WITH SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BTWN 09Z-
14Z THIS MORNING. HAVE USED A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AND 200 TO 400 FT AGL WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL AT MPV OVERNIGHT. FOR
THURSDAY...EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH SOME PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE WITH MVFR VIS BTWN 3-5SM. WL USE TEMPO
GROUP TO COVER HEAVIER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT BTV/RUT. A SLOW CLRING
TREND WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 18Z...WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WL BE LIKELY AT SLK/MPV
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-
13Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES AT MSS AND RUTLAND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 144 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING
SYSTEM (ASOS) AT SAINT JOHNSBURY VERMONT (K1V4) HAS NOT
TRANSMITTED AN OBSERVATION SINCE 1954Z (354 PM EDT) ON WEDNESDAY
AUGUST 20TH. AN ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN WILL CHECK INTO THIS
PROBLEM LATER THIS MORNING. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS PROBLEM WILL BE FIXED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WGH










000
FXUS61 KBTV 210803
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
403 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
VERMONT. DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THAT HIGH WILL STICK AROUND, GIVING
US A LONG STRING OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER THAT WILL LAST FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 144 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF
THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS
TIME ...WITH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT AND RAISED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW OPENS
UP/WEAKENS AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN NY /LIKELY POPS/ ON THURSDAY...THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VT IS ON THURSDAY. AIRMASS STILL
IS FAIRLY MOIST WITH PWS AROUND 1.5" WITH 12Z NAM SHOWING CAPE
VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. THE THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY IS
LIMITED GIVEN EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO LOSING
BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING GIVEN WEAKENING UPPER LOW. THEREFORE I`VE
ONLY GONE WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY. DESPITE 850 TEMPS OF +11 TO
+13C...OVERCAST WILL ONLY KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. OVERALL
DECREASING TREND IN POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCE
PIVOTS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

LARGE GRADIENT IN STORM TOTAL QPF /SPANNING WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY/. AMOUNTS RANGE FROM NIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM...UNDER 0.5" FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...TO UP TO 1.25" FOR
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD
QUEBEC AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
TO AN OPEN WAVE. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
BUT SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL WIN OUT BY LATE IN THE
DAY INTO THE EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MORE BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO
TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY QUIET AND STRAIGHT FORWARD FCST FOR
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...WHICH WL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
WEDS INTO THURS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH REGARDS TO NORTHERN STREAM
TROF AND ASSOCIATED POSITION OF SFC COLD FRNT. GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDS THIS SUMMER FOR LESS WAA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF AND
FASTER SFC COLD FRNT ARRIVAL TIMES...WL USE THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTS A FLATTER MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND WARMEST 85H TEMPS STAYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 14-16C BY 00Z WEDS...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE WARMER CPV/SLV ON TUES. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY FLW WL INCREASE THE SFC DWPTS INTO THE
60S...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS ANTICIPATED. LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SHOW SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS SLIDING JUST TO OUR NORTH ON
TUES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE BORDER
ON TUES. WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM...GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGE ACRS OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF POTENT 5H
VORT IN DEVELOPING S/W TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND A SFC COLD
FRNT WL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BY WEDS. COOLER
TEMPS WL ALSO ARRIVE BY WEDS/THURS...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
FALLING BACK BTWN 8-10C BY 00Z THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT IF THE FRNT IS SLOWER AND THE GFS
THERMAL FIELDS ARE REALIZED THEN TEMPS WEDS COULD BE WELL INTO THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. I WOULD EXPECT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
POSITION OF TROF DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF RIDGE/ASSOCIATED
THERMAL PROFILES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY/MONDAY WL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS...RESULTING IN TYPICAL MID AUGUST WEATHER FOR OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY....CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY ATTM...SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE CPV. VIS/CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP IS MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. ALSO...NOTED SOME MVFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS AT MSS. THINKING THIS RAIN WL ARRIVE AT PBG BY 08Z AND INTO
BTV BY 09Z...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. SOUNDINGS SHOW LLVL
MOISTURE INCREASING AT SLK WITH SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BTWN 09Z-
14Z THIS MORNING. HAVE USED A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AND 200 TO 400 FT AGL WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL AT MPV OVERNIGHT. FOR
THURSDAY...EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH SOME PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE WITH MVFR VIS BTWN 3-5SM. WL USE TEMPO
GROUP TO COVER HEAVIER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT BTV/RUT. A SLOW CLRING
TREND WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 18Z...WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WL BE LIKELY AT SLK/MPV
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-
13Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES AT MSS AND RUTLAND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 144 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING
SYSTEM (ASOS) AT SAINT JOHNSBURY VERMONT (K1V4) HAS NOT
TRANSMITTED AN OBSERVATION SINCE 1954Z (354 PM EDT) ON WEDNESDAY
AUGUST 20TH. AN ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN WILL CHECK INTO THIS
PROBLEM LATER THIS MORNING. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS PROBLEM WILL BE FIXED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WGH









000
FXUS61 KOKX 210758
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
358 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TOD DAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
FROM EASTERN CANADA. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE
REGION WHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN OVER NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO NYC. THESE AREAS
MAY ALSO SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS MUCAP ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST OVER 1000 J/KG.
WITH A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM...NOT LOOKING FOR
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE.

CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE MOST PART. GENERALLY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES TONIGHT AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND A SHORTWAVE
MOVES AROUND ITS BASE. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES...AND THUS JUST
PLAIN SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN EARLY TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A MOIST AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS
WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS WILL COME BACK DOWN TO THE LOWER 60S
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THIS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN MEAN AN EVEN
COOLER DAY ON FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. SOME UPPER 70S FOR THE NYC
METRO REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO END FROM EAST TO
WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOLID MODEL CONSENSUS THRU TUE. HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA THEN
STRENGTHENS AS THE UPR RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD. ON WED...THE ECMWF
BRINGS A CDFNT CLOSE...BUT THE GFS KEEPS THE FEATURE OFF THE LOCAL
MAP. HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLN AS THIS FITS A FAST MODEL
BIAS AT THIS TIME RANGE.

A MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS IS LOCKED IN FRI NGT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SAT. VIRTUALLY NO LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER...SO HAVE ONLY FCST
SPRINKLES. THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLR IN THE AFTN FROM NE TO SW AS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN.

DRY WITH LGT WINDS SUN-WED COURTESY OF THE HIGH. SOME CIRRUS AT
TIMES.

TEMPS BLW NORMAL SAT...THEN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE
SUN-TUE AS HEIGHTS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
KGON...GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND
ANY SHOWER COULD REDUCE CEILINGS OR VSBYS TO MVFR BRIEFLY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NYC METRO AND NORTH AND WEST.

POSSIBLE HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. BEST CHANCE NYC METRO AND NORTH AND WEST.

LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAYTIME.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST BEFORE NOON. TIMING COULD BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
MORNING...JUST TO THE RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.TONIGHT...VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.FRI-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUND AND HARBOR. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA
BRIEFLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA LVLS FRI NGT...THEN DIMINISH DURING THE DAY
ON SAT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT LATE FRI
NGT...THEN LINGER THRU MOST OF SAT BEFORE SUBSIDING. A SCA MAY BE
NEEDED ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN FRI NGT AND SAT. OTHERWISE...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE BLW SCA LVLS SUN-AT LEAST TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE NJ AND INTO NYC. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT BASIN AVERAGED
TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT...AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE ISOLATED. TRACE AMOUNTS OF PCPN ARE POSSIBLE FRI NGT INTO SAT.
IT WILL THEN REMAIN DRY THRU THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP







000
FXUS61 KOKX 210758
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
358 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TOD DAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
FROM EASTERN CANADA. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE
REGION WHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN OVER NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO NYC. THESE AREAS
MAY ALSO SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS MUCAP ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST OVER 1000 J/KG.
WITH A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM...NOT LOOKING FOR
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE.

CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE MOST PART. GENERALLY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES TONIGHT AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND A SHORTWAVE
MOVES AROUND ITS BASE. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES...AND THUS JUST
PLAIN SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN EARLY TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A MOIST AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS
WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS WILL COME BACK DOWN TO THE LOWER 60S
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THIS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN MEAN AN EVEN
COOLER DAY ON FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. SOME UPPER 70S FOR THE NYC
METRO REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO END FROM EAST TO
WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOLID MODEL CONSENSUS THRU TUE. HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA THEN
STRENGTHENS AS THE UPR RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD. ON WED...THE ECMWF
BRINGS A CDFNT CLOSE...BUT THE GFS KEEPS THE FEATURE OFF THE LOCAL
MAP. HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLN AS THIS FITS A FAST MODEL
BIAS AT THIS TIME RANGE.

A MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS IS LOCKED IN FRI NGT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SAT. VIRTUALLY NO LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER...SO HAVE ONLY FCST
SPRINKLES. THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLR IN THE AFTN FROM NE TO SW AS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN.

DRY WITH LGT WINDS SUN-WED COURTESY OF THE HIGH. SOME CIRRUS AT
TIMES.

TEMPS BLW NORMAL SAT...THEN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE
SUN-TUE AS HEIGHTS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
KGON...GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND
ANY SHOWER COULD REDUCE CEILINGS OR VSBYS TO MVFR BRIEFLY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NYC METRO AND NORTH AND WEST.

POSSIBLE HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. BEST CHANCE NYC METRO AND NORTH AND WEST.

LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAYTIME.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST BEFORE NOON. TIMING COULD BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
MORNING...JUST TO THE RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.TONIGHT...VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.FRI-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUND AND HARBOR. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA
BRIEFLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA LVLS FRI NGT...THEN DIMINISH DURING THE DAY
ON SAT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT LATE FRI
NGT...THEN LINGER THRU MOST OF SAT BEFORE SUBSIDING. A SCA MAY BE
NEEDED ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN FRI NGT AND SAT. OTHERWISE...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE BLW SCA LVLS SUN-AT LEAST TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE NJ AND INTO NYC. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT BASIN AVERAGED
TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT...AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE ISOLATED. TRACE AMOUNTS OF PCPN ARE POSSIBLE FRI NGT INTO SAT.
IT WILL THEN REMAIN DRY THRU THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 210707
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
307 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. THIS LOW WILL PASS EAST, AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING WEATHER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE IS NOW EAST OF THE FA, LEAVING US IN A
TEMPORARY LULL. PULLED BACK ON THE PRECIP COVERAGE OVERNIGHT,
LEANING TOWARD LOW CHANCE WEST AND HIGH CHANCE EAST THROUGH EARLY
MORNING.

NEXT SHOT OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE NEXT WAVE
ROTATING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NY/PA THURSDAY MID
MORNING.

LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A BETTER CAPE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE LOOKS OVERDONE,
WITH 500-1000 J/KG CAPE VALUES LOOKING MORE REALISTIC.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS SLOW MOVING SHRA IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION THAT WERE
BACK BUILDING TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER, THE SHRA WERE BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORMISH IN NATURE AS THERE WAS LITTLE CAPE AROUND 200 TO 300
J/KG. THE CAPE WAS ALSO TALL AND SKINNY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
SINCE THE CAPE WAS NOT THAT HIGH THE ACVTY REALLY WASNT BLOSSOMING
ENUF FOR HEAVY RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE NO FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES PLANNED. WE ARE SEEING SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE
URBAN ISSUES IN A FEW PLACES AND HAVE COVERED WITH FLOOD
ADVISORIES. THESE SHRA WILL CONT TO WORK E AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROF THAT WAS SUPPORTG THE ABV MENTIONED ACVTY
EXTENDED FROM NEAR SSM SOUTHWARD TO THE ERN OHIO VALLEY. ALL THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THAT A FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH E INTO C
NY AND NRN PA FROM THE ERN OH VLLY AND WEAKEN BY 23 TO 00Z. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE ACVTY TO CONT TO WORK E INTO THIS EVENING. THEN
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY SEEN OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES AND WILL
EXTEND NW TO SE FROM THE ERN LAKES TO NJ BY 08Z TO 09Z AND
SUPPORT RENEWED SHRA AND POTENTIALLY A LITTLE THUNDER LATER
TONIGHT. AGAIN CAPES WILL BE LOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOOD ISSUES BUT POPS WILL BE HIGHER.

FOR THURSDAY...THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL SUPPORT MORE SHRA AND MORE
TSRA AS CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THU THAN TODAY. PLUS THERE
IS A LITTLE MORE SHEAR. BUT SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES ARE BELOW WHAT
WOULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER HISTORICALLY. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG WITH BULK WIND SHEARS BETWEEN 0
AND 6 KM ARND 20 KNOTS. AGAIN PWATS ARE ARND 1.5 INCHES AND
STORMS WON/T BE MOVING THAT FAST AS MBE VECTORS ARE SMALL SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND FILLS AS IT WORKS OVER NY AND PA. GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND A FAIRLY MOIST BNDRY
LAYER...I CAN SEE SOME ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A LITTLE THUNDER
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD WHERE DWPTS
WILL REMAIN HIGHER AND THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL CAPE INTO THE NIGHT. SFC
RDGING WAS BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM NEW ENGLAND AND BEGINS TO DRY
OUT OUR ERN ZONES FROM THE UPPER MOHAWK TO WRN CATSKILLS THU NGT.
HENCE POPS ARE HIGHER TO THE W OF I-81 AND LOWER TO THE E THU NGT.
THIS PATTERN OF INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS A WEAK
IMPULSE DROPS SEWRD. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHRA OR TSRA FRI SO I
HAVE POPS FRI FM SLGHT CHC TO CHC WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST.
SOME ACVTY CUD LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT SO HAVE KEPT SOME RESIDUAL POPS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY.

FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW ENGLAND AND WE
SHUD HAVE FAIR WEATHER WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF STATES NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS COMBINED WITH SFC HIGH PRES ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
PROVIDE A PLEASANT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MAY BRING THE
AREA SOME SHOWERS.

245 PM UPDATE...
WPC GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WITH 588 DM
HEIGHTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS RIDGE WITH VERY
QUIET WEATHER. WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR
THE SURFACE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST,
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. EVENTUALLY THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MUCH, MUCH WARMER AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAINFALL THIS EVENING COMBINED WITH WEAK MIXING OVERNIGHT WILL
RESULT IN CONDITIONS LOWERING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BY 09Z. AT
KAVP CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW MVFR CATEGORY. AT
KELM, DENSE FOG WILL BRING CONDITIONS CLOSE TO AIRPORT MINS THROUGH
MID MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING BUT
BY 15Z IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS LIKELY. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. FOR THE NYS TERMINALS INCLUDED PREVAILING MVFR
SHOWERS FROM 18Z-00Z, AT KAVP 21Z-03Z. MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AGAIN DUE TO RAINFALL AND WEAK MIXING.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS THEN LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRI NGT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA.
FRI NGT...IFR FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY FOG AT KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...HEDEN/RRM
AVIATION...RRM






000
FXUS61 KBUF 210614
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
214 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE MAJORITY
OF THOSE TWO DAYS WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...BROAD LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY NEAR
LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TO LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE
PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

TOGETHER...THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THEIR
NORTH AND EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY COMING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...IN CONJUNCTION
WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE SUPPORTING MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW.
FOR OUR REGION...THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOUND
FROM CENTRAL NY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
SCATTERED THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF WEAKER FORCING...AND SOMEWHAT
LESSER AMOUNTS OF DEEP MOISTURE.

WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...A MOIST AIRMASS...AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN RISK FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY IF CELLS CAN TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER A
PARTICULAR AREA. THAT SAID...THE RISK REMAINS MARGINAL AND VERY
ISOLATED SO NO FLOOD WATCHES ARE JUSTIFIED. AT THE SAME
TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY DUE TO THE ABOVE FACTORS.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...SKIES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING OF OUR WARM AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES WHERE APPRECIABLE RAIN FELL TODAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY LARGELY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. IT
WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW
TRAVERSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
SHIFTS TO THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS...WILL JUST STICK WITH LOWER-END
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO ENCROACH UPON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. THIS
MODERATING EFFECT WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTS WITH LOWS LARGELY
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT DURING
THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION. A
SURFACE HIGH SITTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A BROAD
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 06Z MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH A MOIST AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING
IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
WHERE RAIN FELL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WNY AREAS EXPECT MAINLY VFR OR HIGH END MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

ALL AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE PEAK OF DAYTIME HEATING
WITH A THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS
OF THE TAF CYCLE...WITH THE REGION BECOMING MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EAST INTO LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THIS LOW TRACKS EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND
WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JJR







000
FXUS61 KALY 210600
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
200 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM...HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT TO
REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE AREA WITH
CHANCE POPS FURTHER TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN PAST NIGHTS...GENERALLY IN THE
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST FORCING LOOKING TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. RAIN COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...BUT RIGHT NOW NOT ENOUGH SIGNALS TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
THE GRIDS. WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS
(OROGRAPHICS WILL LIKELY ASSIST WITH ASCENT THERE)...LIKELY POPS
MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT CHANCE POPS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE
FORCING AND PWATS LOOKS LOWER.

WE ARE NOT NECESSARILY EXPECTED A COMPLETE WASHOUT ON THURSDAY...BUT
IT WILL BE DAMP AND GRAY WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME.

DUE TO THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY TOP IN
THE 70S...BUT IT WILL BE HUMID. IF WE WERE TO GET MORE BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...INSTABILITY (WHICH WE EXPECT TO BE LIMITED) WOULD
INCREASE. FOR NOW...JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...(WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK) BUT AGAIN MORE
SUNSHINE COULD MEAN TALLER THUNDER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ACTUAL OCCLUDE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND (LOWER CHANCES AGAIN SOUTH). TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL A LITTLE MORE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST...TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OPENS AND MOVES TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER...INITIALLY THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
LOW SO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND OR POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR
THIS DAY...CARRIED LOW POPS (30) FOR ELEVATIONS 1000 FEET OR
HIGHER...SLIGHT POPS (20) FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DUE TO THE CLOUDS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...LEANED WITH THE (BUT
NOT ALL THE WAY) THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. WE LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 ON FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN REMAINING IN THE 60S ALL DAY LONG.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES BUT WE WILL LIKELY GET UNDER AN
INVERSION WHICH COULD KEEP CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE PATCHY AROUND
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE NO MENTION OF DRIZZLE RIGHT NOW
BUT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DIP BACK MAINLY INTO
THE 50S...LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...UPPER 50S FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

BY SATURDAY...RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
AND LOOKS TO SCOUR AT LEAST SOME OF THE CLOUDS AWAY. A STRAY
AFTERNOON POP UP SHOWER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BUT FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT...THE THREAT OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM THE COLUMN UP A LITTLE. H850 TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND +12C WHICH WITH NORMAL MIXING...WOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST. A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A MORE DOMINANT PRESENCE AS
WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ORIENTATION AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SW TO NE RIGHT OVER OUR AREA WILL PROVIDE CONTINUAL TRANQUIL
WEATHER OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALSO FAVORS LARGE
SCALE SFC DIVERGENCE AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN 80-90 KT JET AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 20/12Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
PAST THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AS TIME GETS CLOSER TO MID NEXT WEEK.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL
SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE APEX OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF OUR REGION AS WE GO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY FROM KALB-KPSF
NORTHWARD WHERE A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS
GOING MUCH OF THE MORNING. OTHER SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KPOU BTWN
09Z-12Z WITH LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED FROM KALB SOUTH AND
EAST IN THE EARLY PM...BUT SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN BTWN 21Z-00Z
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/HRRR. SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE PROBS ARE STILL BELOW 50 PERCENT...SO WE WILL
LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES ADDRESS THE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES.

THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-8 KTS. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
TONIGHT AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD
INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SCATTERED SOUTH OF ALBANY. WE ASSIGNED A "WET
FLAG" TO ALL THE NFDRS EXCEPT STONYKILL. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. THERE COULD BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL CONTAINING LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WHICH COULD LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
SHOULD RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY...CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTH 5-10 MPH ON THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION BRINGING
PWAT AIR OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. DUE TO LOW
RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WELL
OVER AN INCH. THIS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHTER AS THE PWAT VALUES WILL DROP BACK DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 210600
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
200 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM...HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT TO
REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE AREA WITH
CHANCE POPS FURTHER TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN PAST NIGHTS...GENERALLY IN THE
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST FORCING LOOKING TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. RAIN COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...BUT RIGHT NOW NOT ENOUGH SIGNALS TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
THE GRIDS. WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS
(OROGRAPHICS WILL LIKELY ASSIST WITH ASCENT THERE)...LIKELY POPS
MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT CHANCE POPS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE
FORCING AND PWATS LOOKS LOWER.

WE ARE NOT NECESSARILY EXPECTED A COMPLETE WASHOUT ON THURSDAY...BUT
IT WILL BE DAMP AND GRAY WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME.

DUE TO THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY TOP IN
THE 70S...BUT IT WILL BE HUMID. IF WE WERE TO GET MORE BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...INSTABILITY (WHICH WE EXPECT TO BE LIMITED) WOULD
INCREASE. FOR NOW...JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...(WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK) BUT AGAIN MORE
SUNSHINE COULD MEAN TALLER THUNDER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ACTUAL OCCLUDE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND (LOWER CHANCES AGAIN SOUTH). TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL A LITTLE MORE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST...TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OPENS AND MOVES TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER...INITIALLY THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
LOW SO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND OR POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR
THIS DAY...CARRIED LOW POPS (30) FOR ELEVATIONS 1000 FEET OR
HIGHER...SLIGHT POPS (20) FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DUE TO THE CLOUDS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...LEANED WITH THE (BUT
NOT ALL THE WAY) THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. WE LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 ON FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN REMAINING IN THE 60S ALL DAY LONG.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES BUT WE WILL LIKELY GET UNDER AN
INVERSION WHICH COULD KEEP CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE PATCHY AROUND
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE NO MENTION OF DRIZZLE RIGHT NOW
BUT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DIP BACK MAINLY INTO
THE 50S...LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...UPPER 50S FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

BY SATURDAY...RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
AND LOOKS TO SCOUR AT LEAST SOME OF THE CLOUDS AWAY. A STRAY
AFTERNOON POP UP SHOWER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BUT FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT...THE THREAT OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM THE COLUMN UP A LITTLE. H850 TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND +12C WHICH WITH NORMAL MIXING...WOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST. A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A MORE DOMINANT PRESENCE AS
WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ORIENTATION AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SW TO NE RIGHT OVER OUR AREA WILL PROVIDE CONTINUAL TRANQUIL
WEATHER OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALSO FAVORS LARGE
SCALE SFC DIVERGENCE AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN 80-90 KT JET AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 20/12Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
PAST THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AS TIME GETS CLOSER TO MID NEXT WEEK.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL
SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE APEX OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF OUR REGION AS WE GO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY FROM KALB-KPSF
NORTHWARD WHERE A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS
GOING MUCH OF THE MORNING. OTHER SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KPOU BTWN
09Z-12Z WITH LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED FROM KALB SOUTH AND
EAST IN THE EARLY PM...BUT SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN BTWN 21Z-00Z
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/HRRR. SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE PROBS ARE STILL BELOW 50 PERCENT...SO WE WILL
LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES ADDRESS THE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES.

THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-8 KTS. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
TONIGHT AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD
INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SCATTERED SOUTH OF ALBANY. WE ASSIGNED A "WET
FLAG" TO ALL THE NFDRS EXCEPT STONYKILL. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. THERE COULD BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL CONTAINING LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WHICH COULD LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
SHOULD RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY...CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTH 5-10 MPH ON THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION BRINGING
PWAT AIR OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. DUE TO LOW
RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WELL
OVER AN INCH. THIS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHTER AS THE PWAT VALUES WILL DROP BACK DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 210554
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
154 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
VERMONT. DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THAT HIGH WILL STICK AROUND, GIVING
US A LONG STRING OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER THAT WILL LAST FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 144 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF
THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS
TIME ...WITH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT AND RAISED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW OPENS
UP/WEAKENS AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN NY /LIKELY POPS/ ON THURSDAY...THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VT IS ON THURSDAY. AIRMASS STILL
IS FAIRLY MOIST WITH PWS AROUND 1.5" WITH 12Z NAM SHOWING CAPE
VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. THE THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY IS
LIMITED GIVEN EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO LOSING
BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING GIVEN WEAKENING UPPER LOW. THEREFORE I`VE
ONLY GONE WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY. DESPITE 850 TEMPS OF +11 TO
+13C...OVERCAST WILL ONLY KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. OVERALL
DECREASING TREND IN POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCE
PIVOTS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

LARGE GRADIENT IN STORM TOTAL QPF /SPANNING WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY/. AMOUNTS RANGE FROM NIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM...UNDER 0.5" FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...TO UP TO 1.25" FOR
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD
QUEBEC AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
TO AN OPEN WAVE. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
BUT SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL WIN OUT BY LATE IN THE
DAY INTO THE EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MORE BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO
TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...12Z GUIDANCE FROM GFS, GFS ENSEMBLES
AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY DARN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER
AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL PREVIOUS RUNS, THUS I WOULD RATE MY
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS ABOVE NORMAL. IN SUMMARY, LARGE
SCALE BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY, RESULTING IN DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK (SUMMER WILL HANG ON NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAKES THIS
FORECASTER PERSONALLY HAPPY). WITH THE CLOSENESS AMONG THE MODELS, I
SAW NO REASON TO SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATE FROM THE PURE BLEND BETWEEN
THEM ALL. HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA.
STILL SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT IN
GENERAL THE FORECAST IS A DRY ONE. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY NOSING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. LUCKILY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR WARMEST SO I DON`T EXPECT ANY
ISSUES WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AS WE WOULD SEE IN
THE SPRING OR EVEN EARLY SUMMER. HOWEVER IT WILL SET UP AN A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND WARMEST IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10-12C (EAST TO WEST), HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO UPPER 70S IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT.
VALLEY FOG WILL PROBABLY FORM AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...DITTO.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH ON TOP OF THE AREA
ALONG WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. NET RESULT: LOTS OF SUN AND VERY
LIGHT WINDS. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE 12-13C RANGE AND WITH
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING, WE SHOULD REALIZE THE FULL POTENTIAL OF WARMTH
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. MONDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...ALMOST IDENTICAL TO MONDAY, EXCEPT THE HIGH SINKS JUST A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. IN RESPONSE, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A DEGREE OR TWO
FROM MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP AROUND 12-14C, SO LOOK
FOR LOWER 80S TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. STILL DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND
A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PERHAPS AS LOW AS 7500FT SO ANY
DAYTIME CUMULUS THAT FORMS WILL BE VERY SHALLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS A REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH IS A REPEAT OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME. GFS & IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE STRONG, MEANING LOTS O` SUN. ECMWF FLATTENS
THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE
NORTH AND BRINGS IN SOME MOISTURE TO NORTHERN NY LATE IN THE DAY
SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ABOUT. WITH THE BLEND I USED, I
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION, BUT PAINTED IN SOME 10-20%
POPS IN NORTHERN NY. THE BASIC WORDED FORECAST WILL INDICATE A DRY
DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 14-16C OR SO, THUS EVEN MORE OF
THE AREA WILL BE POKING ABOVE THE 80F MARK -- WITH EVEN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY....CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY ATTM...SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE CPV. VIS/CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP IS MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. ALSO...NOTED SOME MVFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS AT MSS. THINKING THIS RAIN WL ARRIVE AT PBG BY 08Z AND INTO
BTV BY 09Z...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. SOUNDINGS SHOW LLVL
MOISTURE INCREASING AT SLK WITH SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BTWN 09Z-
14Z THIS MORNING. HAVE USED A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AND 200 TO 400 FT AGL WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL AT MPV OVERNIGHT. FOR
THURSDAY...EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH SOME PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE WITH MVFR VIS BTWN 3-5SM. WL USE TEMPO
GROUP TO COVER HEAVIER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT BTV/RUT. A SLOW CLRING
TREND WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 18Z...WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WL BE LIKELY AT SLK/MPV
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-
13Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES AT MSS AND RUTLAND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 144 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING
SYSTEM (ASOS) AT SAINT JOHNSBURY VERMONT (K1V4) HAS NOT
TRANSMITTED AN OBSERVATION SINCE 1954Z (354 PM EDT) ON WEDNESDAY
AUGUST 20TH. AN ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN WILL CHECK INTO THIS
PROBLEM LATER THIS MORNING. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS PROBLEM WILL BE FIXED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WGH









000
FXUS61 KBTV 210554
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
154 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
VERMONT. DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THAT HIGH WILL STICK AROUND, GIVING
US A LONG STRING OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER THAT WILL LAST FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 144 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF
THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS
TIME ...WITH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT AND RAISED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW OPENS
UP/WEAKENS AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN NY /LIKELY POPS/ ON THURSDAY...THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VT IS ON THURSDAY. AIRMASS STILL
IS FAIRLY MOIST WITH PWS AROUND 1.5" WITH 12Z NAM SHOWING CAPE
VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. THE THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY IS
LIMITED GIVEN EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO LOSING
BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING GIVEN WEAKENING UPPER LOW. THEREFORE I`VE
ONLY GONE WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY. DESPITE 850 TEMPS OF +11 TO
+13C...OVERCAST WILL ONLY KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. OVERALL
DECREASING TREND IN POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCE
PIVOTS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

LARGE GRADIENT IN STORM TOTAL QPF /SPANNING WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY/. AMOUNTS RANGE FROM NIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM...UNDER 0.5" FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...TO UP TO 1.25" FOR
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD
QUEBEC AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
TO AN OPEN WAVE. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
BUT SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL WIN OUT BY LATE IN THE
DAY INTO THE EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MORE BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO
TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...12Z GUIDANCE FROM GFS, GFS ENSEMBLES
AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY DARN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER
AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL PREVIOUS RUNS, THUS I WOULD RATE MY
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS ABOVE NORMAL. IN SUMMARY, LARGE
SCALE BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY, RESULTING IN DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK (SUMMER WILL HANG ON NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAKES THIS
FORECASTER PERSONALLY HAPPY). WITH THE CLOSENESS AMONG THE MODELS, I
SAW NO REASON TO SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATE FROM THE PURE BLEND BETWEEN
THEM ALL. HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA.
STILL SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT IN
GENERAL THE FORECAST IS A DRY ONE. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY NOSING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. LUCKILY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR WARMEST SO I DON`T EXPECT ANY
ISSUES WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AS WE WOULD SEE IN
THE SPRING OR EVEN EARLY SUMMER. HOWEVER IT WILL SET UP AN A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND WARMEST IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10-12C (EAST TO WEST), HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO UPPER 70S IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT.
VALLEY FOG WILL PROBABLY FORM AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...DITTO.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH ON TOP OF THE AREA
ALONG WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. NET RESULT: LOTS OF SUN AND VERY
LIGHT WINDS. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE 12-13C RANGE AND WITH
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING, WE SHOULD REALIZE THE FULL POTENTIAL OF WARMTH
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. MONDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...ALMOST IDENTICAL TO MONDAY, EXCEPT THE HIGH SINKS JUST A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. IN RESPONSE, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A DEGREE OR TWO
FROM MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP AROUND 12-14C, SO LOOK
FOR LOWER 80S TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. STILL DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND
A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PERHAPS AS LOW AS 7500FT SO ANY
DAYTIME CUMULUS THAT FORMS WILL BE VERY SHALLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS A REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH IS A REPEAT OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME. GFS & IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE STRONG, MEANING LOTS O` SUN. ECMWF FLATTENS
THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE
NORTH AND BRINGS IN SOME MOISTURE TO NORTHERN NY LATE IN THE DAY
SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ABOUT. WITH THE BLEND I USED, I
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION, BUT PAINTED IN SOME 10-20%
POPS IN NORTHERN NY. THE BASIC WORDED FORECAST WILL INDICATE A DRY
DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 14-16C OR SO, THUS EVEN MORE OF
THE AREA WILL BE POKING ABOVE THE 80F MARK -- WITH EVEN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY....CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY ATTM...SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE CPV. VIS/CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP IS MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. ALSO...NOTED SOME MVFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS AT MSS. THINKING THIS RAIN WL ARRIVE AT PBG BY 08Z AND INTO
BTV BY 09Z...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. SOUNDINGS SHOW LLVL
MOISTURE INCREASING AT SLK WITH SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BTWN 09Z-
14Z THIS MORNING. HAVE USED A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AND 200 TO 400 FT AGL WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL AT MPV OVERNIGHT. FOR
THURSDAY...EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH SOME PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE WITH MVFR VIS BTWN 3-5SM. WL USE TEMPO
GROUP TO COVER HEAVIER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT BTV/RUT. A SLOW CLRING
TREND WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 18Z...WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WL BE LIKELY AT SLK/MPV
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-
13Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES AT MSS AND RUTLAND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 144 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING
SYSTEM (ASOS) AT SAINT JOHNSBURY VERMONT (K1V4) HAS NOT
TRANSMITTED AN OBSERVATION SINCE 1954Z (354 PM EDT) ON WEDNESDAY
AUGUST 20TH. AN ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN WILL CHECK INTO THIS
PROBLEM LATER THIS MORNING. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS PROBLEM WILL BE FIXED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WGH










000
FXUS61 KBGM 210554
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
154 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. THIS LOW WILL PASS EAST, AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING WEATHER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE IS NOW EAST OF THE FA, LEAVING US IN A
TEMPORARY LULL. PULLED BACK ON THE PRECIP COVERAGE OVERNIGHT,
LEANING TOWARD LOW CHANCE WEST AND HIGH CHANCE EAST THROUGH EARLY
MORNING.

NEXT SHOT OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE NEXT WAVE
ROTATING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NY/PA THURSDAY MID
MORNING.

LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A BETTER CAPE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE LOOKS OVERDONE,
WITH 500-1000 J/KG CAPE VALUES LOOKING MORE REALISTIC.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS SLOW MOVING SHRA IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION THAT WERE
BACK BUILDING TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER, THE SHRA WERE BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORMISH IN NATURE AS THERE WAS LITTLE CAPE AROUND 200 TO 300
J/KG. THE CAPE WAS ALSO TALL AND SKINNY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
SINCE THE CAPE WAS NOT THAT HIGH THE ACVTY REALLY WASNT BLOSSOMING
ENUF FOR HEAVY RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE NO FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES PLANNED. WE ARE SEEING SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE
URBAN ISSUES IN A FEW PLACES AND HAVE COVERED WITH FLOOD
ADVISORIES. THESE SHRA WILL CONT TO WORK E AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROF THAT WAS SUPPORTG THE ABV MENTIONED ACVTY
EXTENDED FROM NEAR SSM SOUTHWARD TO THE ERN OHIO VALLEY. ALL THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THAT A FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH E INTO C
NY AND NRN PA FROM THE ERN OH VLLY AND WEAKEN BY 23 TO 00Z. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE ACVTY TO CONT TO WORK E INTO THIS EVENING. THEN
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY SEEN OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES AND WILL
EXTEND NW TO SE FROM THE ERN LAKES TO NJ BY 08Z TO 09Z AND
SUPPORT RENEWED SHRA AND POTENTIALLY A LITTLE THUNDER LATER
TONIGHT. AGAIN CAPES WILL BE LOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOOD ISSUES BUT POPS WILL BE HIGHER.

FOR THURSDAY...THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL SUPPORT MORE SHRA AND MORE
TSRA AS CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THU THAN TODAY. PLUS THERE
IS A LITTLE MORE SHEAR. BUT SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES ARE BELOW WHAT
WOULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER HISTORICALLY. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG WITH BULK WIND SHEARS BETWEEN 0
AND 6 KM ARND 20 KNOTS. AGAIN PWATS ARE ARND 1.5 INCHES AND
STORMS WON/T BE MOVING THAT FAST AS MBE VECTORS ARE SMALL SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND FILLS AS IT WORKS OVER NY AND PA. GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND A FAIRLY MOIST BNDRY
LAYER...I CAN SEE SOME ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A LITTLE THUNDER
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD WHERE DWPTS
WILL REMAIN HIGHER AND THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL CAPE INTO THE NIGHT. SFC
RDGING WAS BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM NEW ENGLAND AND BEGINS TO DRY
OUT OUR ERN ZONES FROM THE UPPER MOHAWK TO WRN CATSKILLS THU NGT.
HENCE POPS ARE HIGHER TO THE W OF I-81 AND LOWER TO THE E THU NGT.
THIS PATTERN OF INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS A WEAK
IMPULSE DROPS SEWRD. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHRA OR TSRA FRI SO I
HAVE POPS FRI FM SLGHT CHC TO CHC WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST.
SOME ACVTY CUD LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT SO HAVE KEPT SOME RESIDUAL POPS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY.

FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW ENGLAND AND WE
SHUD HAVE FAIR WEATHER WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
WPC GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WITH 588 DM
HEIGHTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS RIDGE WITH VERY
QUIET WEATHER. WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR
THE SURFACE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST,
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. EVENTUALLY THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MUCH, MUCH WARMER AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAINFALL THIS EVENING COMBINED WITH WEAK MIXING OVERNIGHT WILL
RESULT IN CONDITIONS LOWERING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BY 09Z. AT
KAVP CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW MVFR CATEGORY. AT
KELM, DENSE FOG WILL BRING CONDITIONS CLOSE TO AIRPORT MINS THROUGH
MID MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING BUT
BY 15Z IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS LIKELY. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. FOR THE NYS TERMINALS INCLUDED PREVAILING MVFR
SHOWERS FROM 18Z-00Z, AT KAVP 21Z-03Z. MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AGAIN DUE TO RAINFALL AND WEAK MIXING.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS THEN LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRI NGT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA.
FRI NGT...IFR FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY FOG AT KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...RRM






000
FXUS61 KBGM 210554
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
154 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. THIS LOW WILL PASS EAST, AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING WEATHER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE IS NOW EAST OF THE FA, LEAVING US IN A
TEMPORARY LULL. PULLED BACK ON THE PRECIP COVERAGE OVERNIGHT,
LEANING TOWARD LOW CHANCE WEST AND HIGH CHANCE EAST THROUGH EARLY
MORNING.

NEXT SHOT OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE NEXT WAVE
ROTATING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NY/PA THURSDAY MID
MORNING.

LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A BETTER CAPE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE LOOKS OVERDONE,
WITH 500-1000 J/KG CAPE VALUES LOOKING MORE REALISTIC.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS SLOW MOVING SHRA IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION THAT WERE
BACK BUILDING TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER, THE SHRA WERE BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORMISH IN NATURE AS THERE WAS LITTLE CAPE AROUND 200 TO 300
J/KG. THE CAPE WAS ALSO TALL AND SKINNY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
SINCE THE CAPE WAS NOT THAT HIGH THE ACVTY REALLY WASNT BLOSSOMING
ENUF FOR HEAVY RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE NO FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES PLANNED. WE ARE SEEING SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE
URBAN ISSUES IN A FEW PLACES AND HAVE COVERED WITH FLOOD
ADVISORIES. THESE SHRA WILL CONT TO WORK E AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROF THAT WAS SUPPORTG THE ABV MENTIONED ACVTY
EXTENDED FROM NEAR SSM SOUTHWARD TO THE ERN OHIO VALLEY. ALL THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THAT A FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH E INTO C
NY AND NRN PA FROM THE ERN OH VLLY AND WEAKEN BY 23 TO 00Z. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE ACVTY TO CONT TO WORK E INTO THIS EVENING. THEN
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY SEEN OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES AND WILL
EXTEND NW TO SE FROM THE ERN LAKES TO NJ BY 08Z TO 09Z AND
SUPPORT RENEWED SHRA AND POTENTIALLY A LITTLE THUNDER LATER
TONIGHT. AGAIN CAPES WILL BE LOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOOD ISSUES BUT POPS WILL BE HIGHER.

FOR THURSDAY...THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL SUPPORT MORE SHRA AND MORE
TSRA AS CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THU THAN TODAY. PLUS THERE
IS A LITTLE MORE SHEAR. BUT SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES ARE BELOW WHAT
WOULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER HISTORICALLY. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG WITH BULK WIND SHEARS BETWEEN 0
AND 6 KM ARND 20 KNOTS. AGAIN PWATS ARE ARND 1.5 INCHES AND
STORMS WON/T BE MOVING THAT FAST AS MBE VECTORS ARE SMALL SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND FILLS AS IT WORKS OVER NY AND PA. GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND A FAIRLY MOIST BNDRY
LAYER...I CAN SEE SOME ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A LITTLE THUNDER
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD WHERE DWPTS
WILL REMAIN HIGHER AND THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL CAPE INTO THE NIGHT. SFC
RDGING WAS BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM NEW ENGLAND AND BEGINS TO DRY
OUT OUR ERN ZONES FROM THE UPPER MOHAWK TO WRN CATSKILLS THU NGT.
HENCE POPS ARE HIGHER TO THE W OF I-81 AND LOWER TO THE E THU NGT.
THIS PATTERN OF INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS A WEAK
IMPULSE DROPS SEWRD. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHRA OR TSRA FRI SO I
HAVE POPS FRI FM SLGHT CHC TO CHC WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST.
SOME ACVTY CUD LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT SO HAVE KEPT SOME RESIDUAL POPS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY.

FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW ENGLAND AND WE
SHUD HAVE FAIR WEATHER WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
WPC GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WITH 588 DM
HEIGHTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS RIDGE WITH VERY
QUIET WEATHER. WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR
THE SURFACE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST,
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. EVENTUALLY THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MUCH, MUCH WARMER AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAINFALL THIS EVENING COMBINED WITH WEAK MIXING OVERNIGHT WILL
RESULT IN CONDITIONS LOWERING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BY 09Z. AT
KAVP CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW MVFR CATEGORY. AT
KELM, DENSE FOG WILL BRING CONDITIONS CLOSE TO AIRPORT MINS THROUGH
MID MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING BUT
BY 15Z IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS LIKELY. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. FOR THE NYS TERMINALS INCLUDED PREVAILING MVFR
SHOWERS FROM 18Z-00Z, AT KAVP 21Z-03Z. MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AGAIN DUE TO RAINFALL AND WEAK MIXING.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS THEN LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRI NGT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA.
FRI NGT...IFR FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY FOG AT KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...RRM






000
FXUS61 KBGM 210554
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
154 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. THIS LOW WILL PASS EAST, AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING WEATHER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE IS NOW EAST OF THE FA, LEAVING US IN A
TEMPORARY LULL. PULLED BACK ON THE PRECIP COVERAGE OVERNIGHT,
LEANING TOWARD LOW CHANCE WEST AND HIGH CHANCE EAST THROUGH EARLY
MORNING.

NEXT SHOT OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE NEXT WAVE
ROTATING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NY/PA THURSDAY MID
MORNING.

LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A BETTER CAPE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE LOOKS OVERDONE,
WITH 500-1000 J/KG CAPE VALUES LOOKING MORE REALISTIC.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS SLOW MOVING SHRA IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION THAT WERE
BACK BUILDING TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER, THE SHRA WERE BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORMISH IN NATURE AS THERE WAS LITTLE CAPE AROUND 200 TO 300
J/KG. THE CAPE WAS ALSO TALL AND SKINNY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
SINCE THE CAPE WAS NOT THAT HIGH THE ACVTY REALLY WASNT BLOSSOMING
ENUF FOR HEAVY RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE NO FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES PLANNED. WE ARE SEEING SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE
URBAN ISSUES IN A FEW PLACES AND HAVE COVERED WITH FLOOD
ADVISORIES. THESE SHRA WILL CONT TO WORK E AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROF THAT WAS SUPPORTG THE ABV MENTIONED ACVTY
EXTENDED FROM NEAR SSM SOUTHWARD TO THE ERN OHIO VALLEY. ALL THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THAT A FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH E INTO C
NY AND NRN PA FROM THE ERN OH VLLY AND WEAKEN BY 23 TO 00Z. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE ACVTY TO CONT TO WORK E INTO THIS EVENING. THEN
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY SEEN OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES AND WILL
EXTEND NW TO SE FROM THE ERN LAKES TO NJ BY 08Z TO 09Z AND
SUPPORT RENEWED SHRA AND POTENTIALLY A LITTLE THUNDER LATER
TONIGHT. AGAIN CAPES WILL BE LOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOOD ISSUES BUT POPS WILL BE HIGHER.

FOR THURSDAY...THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL SUPPORT MORE SHRA AND MORE
TSRA AS CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THU THAN TODAY. PLUS THERE
IS A LITTLE MORE SHEAR. BUT SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES ARE BELOW WHAT
WOULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER HISTORICALLY. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG WITH BULK WIND SHEARS BETWEEN 0
AND 6 KM ARND 20 KNOTS. AGAIN PWATS ARE ARND 1.5 INCHES AND
STORMS WON/T BE MOVING THAT FAST AS MBE VECTORS ARE SMALL SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND FILLS AS IT WORKS OVER NY AND PA. GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND A FAIRLY MOIST BNDRY
LAYER...I CAN SEE SOME ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A LITTLE THUNDER
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD WHERE DWPTS
WILL REMAIN HIGHER AND THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL CAPE INTO THE NIGHT. SFC
RDGING WAS BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM NEW ENGLAND AND BEGINS TO DRY
OUT OUR ERN ZONES FROM THE UPPER MOHAWK TO WRN CATSKILLS THU NGT.
HENCE POPS ARE HIGHER TO THE W OF I-81 AND LOWER TO THE E THU NGT.
THIS PATTERN OF INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS A WEAK
IMPULSE DROPS SEWRD. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHRA OR TSRA FRI SO I
HAVE POPS FRI FM SLGHT CHC TO CHC WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST.
SOME ACVTY CUD LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT SO HAVE KEPT SOME RESIDUAL POPS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY.

FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW ENGLAND AND WE
SHUD HAVE FAIR WEATHER WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
WPC GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WITH 588 DM
HEIGHTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS RIDGE WITH VERY
QUIET WEATHER. WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR
THE SURFACE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST,
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. EVENTUALLY THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MUCH, MUCH WARMER AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAINFALL THIS EVENING COMBINED WITH WEAK MIXING OVERNIGHT WILL
RESULT IN CONDITIONS LOWERING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BY 09Z. AT
KAVP CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW MVFR CATEGORY. AT
KELM, DENSE FOG WILL BRING CONDITIONS CLOSE TO AIRPORT MINS THROUGH
MID MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING BUT
BY 15Z IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS LIKELY. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. FOR THE NYS TERMINALS INCLUDED PREVAILING MVFR
SHOWERS FROM 18Z-00Z, AT KAVP 21Z-03Z. MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AGAIN DUE TO RAINFALL AND WEAK MIXING.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS THEN LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRI NGT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA.
FRI NGT...IFR FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY FOG AT KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...RRM






000
FXUS61 KBGM 210554
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
154 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. THIS LOW WILL PASS EAST, AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING WEATHER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE IS NOW EAST OF THE FA, LEAVING US IN A
TEMPORARY LULL. PULLED BACK ON THE PRECIP COVERAGE OVERNIGHT,
LEANING TOWARD LOW CHANCE WEST AND HIGH CHANCE EAST THROUGH EARLY
MORNING.

NEXT SHOT OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE NEXT WAVE
ROTATING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NY/PA THURSDAY MID
MORNING.

LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A BETTER CAPE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE LOOKS OVERDONE,
WITH 500-1000 J/KG CAPE VALUES LOOKING MORE REALISTIC.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS SLOW MOVING SHRA IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION THAT WERE
BACK BUILDING TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER, THE SHRA WERE BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORMISH IN NATURE AS THERE WAS LITTLE CAPE AROUND 200 TO 300
J/KG. THE CAPE WAS ALSO TALL AND SKINNY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
SINCE THE CAPE WAS NOT THAT HIGH THE ACVTY REALLY WASNT BLOSSOMING
ENUF FOR HEAVY RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE NO FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES PLANNED. WE ARE SEEING SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE
URBAN ISSUES IN A FEW PLACES AND HAVE COVERED WITH FLOOD
ADVISORIES. THESE SHRA WILL CONT TO WORK E AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROF THAT WAS SUPPORTG THE ABV MENTIONED ACVTY
EXTENDED FROM NEAR SSM SOUTHWARD TO THE ERN OHIO VALLEY. ALL THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THAT A FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH E INTO C
NY AND NRN PA FROM THE ERN OH VLLY AND WEAKEN BY 23 TO 00Z. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE ACVTY TO CONT TO WORK E INTO THIS EVENING. THEN
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY SEEN OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES AND WILL
EXTEND NW TO SE FROM THE ERN LAKES TO NJ BY 08Z TO 09Z AND
SUPPORT RENEWED SHRA AND POTENTIALLY A LITTLE THUNDER LATER
TONIGHT. AGAIN CAPES WILL BE LOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOOD ISSUES BUT POPS WILL BE HIGHER.

FOR THURSDAY...THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL SUPPORT MORE SHRA AND MORE
TSRA AS CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THU THAN TODAY. PLUS THERE
IS A LITTLE MORE SHEAR. BUT SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES ARE BELOW WHAT
WOULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER HISTORICALLY. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG WITH BULK WIND SHEARS BETWEEN 0
AND 6 KM ARND 20 KNOTS. AGAIN PWATS ARE ARND 1.5 INCHES AND
STORMS WON/T BE MOVING THAT FAST AS MBE VECTORS ARE SMALL SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND FILLS AS IT WORKS OVER NY AND PA. GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND A FAIRLY MOIST BNDRY
LAYER...I CAN SEE SOME ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A LITTLE THUNDER
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD WHERE DWPTS
WILL REMAIN HIGHER AND THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL CAPE INTO THE NIGHT. SFC
RDGING WAS BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM NEW ENGLAND AND BEGINS TO DRY
OUT OUR ERN ZONES FROM THE UPPER MOHAWK TO WRN CATSKILLS THU NGT.
HENCE POPS ARE HIGHER TO THE W OF I-81 AND LOWER TO THE E THU NGT.
THIS PATTERN OF INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS A WEAK
IMPULSE DROPS SEWRD. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHRA OR TSRA FRI SO I
HAVE POPS FRI FM SLGHT CHC TO CHC WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST.
SOME ACVTY CUD LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT SO HAVE KEPT SOME RESIDUAL POPS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY.

FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW ENGLAND AND WE
SHUD HAVE FAIR WEATHER WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
WPC GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WITH 588 DM
HEIGHTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS RIDGE WITH VERY
QUIET WEATHER. WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR
THE SURFACE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST,
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. EVENTUALLY THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MUCH, MUCH WARMER AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAINFALL THIS EVENING COMBINED WITH WEAK MIXING OVERNIGHT WILL
RESULT IN CONDITIONS LOWERING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BY 09Z. AT
KAVP CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW MVFR CATEGORY. AT
KELM, DENSE FOG WILL BRING CONDITIONS CLOSE TO AIRPORT MINS THROUGH
MID MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING BUT
BY 15Z IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS LIKELY. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. FOR THE NYS TERMINALS INCLUDED PREVAILING MVFR
SHOWERS FROM 18Z-00Z, AT KAVP 21Z-03Z. MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AGAIN DUE TO RAINFALL AND WEAK MIXING.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS THEN LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRI NGT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA.
FRI NGT...IFR FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY FOG AT KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...RRM






000
FXUS61 KBTV 210544
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
VERMONT. DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THAT HIGH WILL STICK AROUND, GIVING
US A LONG STRING OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER THAT WILL LAST FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 144 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF
THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS
TIME ...WITH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT AND RAISED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW OPENS
UP/WEAKENS AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN NY /LIKELY POPS/ ON THURSDAY...THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VT IS ON THURSDAY. AIRMASS STILL
IS FAIRLY MOIST WITH PWS AROUND 1.5" WITH 12Z NAM SHOWING CAPE
VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. THE THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY IS
LIMITED GIVEN EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO LOSING
BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING GIVEN WEAKENING UPPER LOW. THEREFORE I`VE
ONLY GONE WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY. DESPITE 850 TEMPS OF +11 TO
+13C...OVERCAST WILL ONLY KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. OVERALL
DECREASING TREND IN POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCE
PIVOTS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

LARGE GRADIENT IN STORM TOTAL QPF /SPANNING WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY/. AMOUNTS RANGE FROM NIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM...UNDER 0.5" FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...TO UP TO 1.25" FOR
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD
QUEBEC AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
TO AN OPEN WAVE. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
BUT SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL WIN OUT BY LATE IN THE
DAY INTO THE EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MORE BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO
TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...12Z GUIDANCE FROM GFS, GFS ENSEMBLES
AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY DARN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER
AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL PREVIOUS RUNS, THUS I WOULD RATE MY
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS ABOVE NORMAL. IN SUMMARY, LARGE
SCALE BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY, RESULTING IN DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK (SUMMER WILL HANG ON NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAKES THIS
FORECASTER PERSONALLY HAPPY). WITH THE CLOSENESS AMONG THE MODELS, I
SAW NO REASON TO SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATE FROM THE PURE BLEND BETWEEN
THEM ALL. HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA.
STILL SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT IN
GENERAL THE FORECAST IS A DRY ONE. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY NOSING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. LUCKILY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR WARMEST SO I DON`T EXPECT ANY
ISSUES WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AS WE WOULD SEE IN
THE SPRING OR EVEN EARLY SUMMER. HOWEVER IT WILL SET UP AN A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND WARMEST IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10-12C (EAST TO WEST), HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO UPPER 70S IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT.
VALLEY FOG WILL PROBABLY FORM AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...DITTO.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH ON TOP OF THE AREA
ALONG WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. NET RESULT: LOTS OF SUN AND VERY
LIGHT WINDS. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE 12-13C RANGE AND WITH
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING, WE SHOULD REALIZE THE FULL POTENTIAL OF WARMTH
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. MONDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...ALMOST IDENTICAL TO MONDAY, EXCEPT THE HIGH SINKS JUST A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. IN RESPONSE, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A DEGREE OR TWO
FROM MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP AROUND 12-14C, SO LOOK
FOR LOWER 80S TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. STILL DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND
A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PERHAPS AS LOW AS 7500FT SO ANY
DAYTIME CUMULUS THAT FORMS WILL BE VERY SHALLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS A REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH IS A REPEAT OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME. GFS & IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE STRONG, MEANING LOTS O` SUN. ECMWF FLATTENS
THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE
NORTH AND BRINGS IN SOME MOISTURE TO NORTHERN NY LATE IN THE DAY
SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ABOUT. WITH THE BLEND I USED, I
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION, BUT PAINTED IN SOME 10-20%
POPS IN NORTHERN NY. THE BASIC WORDED FORECAST WILL INDICATE A DRY
DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 14-16C OR SO, THUS EVEN MORE OF
THE AREA WILL BE POKING ABOVE THE 80F MARK -- WITH EVEN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY....OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS BUT AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z AND
THUS EXPECTING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE SHOWERS. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AND CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...00Z FRI TO 00Z SAT...AREAS
OF MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS.

00Z SAT ONWARD...VFR, EXCEPT IFR IN LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG
(PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK).

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 144 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING
SYSTEM (ASOS) AT SAINT JOHNSBURY VERMONT (K1V4) HAS NOT
TRANSMITTED AN OBSERVATION SINCE 1954Z (354 PM EDT) ON WEDNESDAY
AUGUST 20TH. AN ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN WILL CHECK INTO THIS
PROBLEM LATER THIS MORNING. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS PROBLEM WILL BE FIXED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH
EQUIPMENT...WGH






000
FXUS61 KOKX 210533
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
133 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PA AND WESTERN NJ SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BETWEEN 5-6Z. H5 SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR PRECIP
TO REACH THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT CHANCE AS THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE SCATTERED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. EASTERN ZONES WILL DROP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ONGOING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN
BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...AS RIDGING NOSES IN ACROSS
OUR EASTERN SECTIONS. INCLUDED ISO THUNDER ACROSS THE APPROXIMATE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WHERE MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A LITTLE
MORE IN THE WAY OF MUCAPE. ADDITIONALLY...THESE AREAS WILL BE LESS
INFLUENCED BY THE MARITIME AIR BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO E/SE ONSHORE FLOW.

DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...WITH MANY AREAS
STAYING IN THE 70S / BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE FIRST WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING POKING
IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST WILL ALLOW MOST PLACES TO BE DRY LATER IN
THE DAY. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER
LOW TO THE NW OPENS AND APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF A STRONG BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH A DEEP TROUGH OUT WEST WITH AN UPPER LOW
CUTTING OFF OVER THE PAC NW AND AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER ERN CANADA WITH
A WEAK CUTOFF LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS AND TIMING OF VORT MAXES
MOVING AROUND THE LEFT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ONCE IT SLIDES
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GENERAL TREND APPEARS TO BE DECREASING CHC`S OF
SHOWERS DURING FRI AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST
FROM THE N. MAY NEED TO ADD SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AT TIMES THROUGH
SAT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. ADDITIONALLY...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FOR FRI AND
SAT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS A RESULT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE H5 FLOW AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO THE BLOCKING
PATTERN. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD DURING THIS
TIME WITH AN ELY FLOW EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO MON. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THIS TIME...BUT AS
HEIGHTS RISE TUE AND WED...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
KGON...MAINLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND
ANY SHOWER COULD REDUCE CEILINGS OR VSBYS TO MVFR BRIEFLY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NYC METRO AND NORTH AND WEST.

POSSIBLE HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. BEST CHANCE NYC METRO AND NORTH AND WEST.

LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAYTIME.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.TONIGHT...VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.FRI-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXTENDING ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY...AND
ONLY STARTING TO LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THOUGH.

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS...ALTHOUGH COULD
COME CLOSE TO 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE FRI/FRI EVE. AN
INCREASING E-NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN WITH
SCA CONDS EXPECTED BETWEEN FRI NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES THEREAFTER WITH SEAS DIMINISHING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE NJ. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT BASIN AVERAGED TOTALS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN LIGHT...AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PICCA
NEAR TERM...PICCA/JP/MPS
SHORT TERM...PICCA
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...24/PICCA
HYDROLOGY...24/PICCA







000
FXUS61 KOKX 210533
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
133 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PA AND WESTERN NJ SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BETWEEN 5-6Z. H5 SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR PRECIP
TO REACH THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT CHANCE AS THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE SCATTERED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. EASTERN ZONES WILL DROP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ONGOING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN
BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...AS RIDGING NOSES IN ACROSS
OUR EASTERN SECTIONS. INCLUDED ISO THUNDER ACROSS THE APPROXIMATE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WHERE MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A LITTLE
MORE IN THE WAY OF MUCAPE. ADDITIONALLY...THESE AREAS WILL BE LESS
INFLUENCED BY THE MARITIME AIR BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO E/SE ONSHORE FLOW.

DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...WITH MANY AREAS
STAYING IN THE 70S / BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE FIRST WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING POKING
IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST WILL ALLOW MOST PLACES TO BE DRY LATER IN
THE DAY. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER
LOW TO THE NW OPENS AND APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF A STRONG BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH A DEEP TROUGH OUT WEST WITH AN UPPER LOW
CUTTING OFF OVER THE PAC NW AND AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER ERN CANADA WITH
A WEAK CUTOFF LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS AND TIMING OF VORT MAXES
MOVING AROUND THE LEFT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ONCE IT SLIDES
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GENERAL TREND APPEARS TO BE DECREASING CHC`S OF
SHOWERS DURING FRI AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST
FROM THE N. MAY NEED TO ADD SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AT TIMES THROUGH
SAT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. ADDITIONALLY...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FOR FRI AND
SAT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS A RESULT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE H5 FLOW AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO THE BLOCKING
PATTERN. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD DURING THIS
TIME WITH AN ELY FLOW EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO MON. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THIS TIME...BUT AS
HEIGHTS RISE TUE AND WED...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
KGON...MAINLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND
ANY SHOWER COULD REDUCE CEILINGS OR VSBYS TO MVFR BRIEFLY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NYC METRO AND NORTH AND WEST.

POSSIBLE HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. BEST CHANCE NYC METRO AND NORTH AND WEST.

LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAYTIME.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.TONIGHT...VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.FRI-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXTENDING ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY...AND
ONLY STARTING TO LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THOUGH.

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS...ALTHOUGH COULD
COME CLOSE TO 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE FRI/FRI EVE. AN
INCREASING E-NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN WITH
SCA CONDS EXPECTED BETWEEN FRI NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES THEREAFTER WITH SEAS DIMINISHING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE NJ. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT BASIN AVERAGED TOTALS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN LIGHT...AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PICCA
NEAR TERM...PICCA/JP/MPS
SHORT TERM...PICCA
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...24/PICCA
HYDROLOGY...24/PICCA







000
FXUS61 KOKX 210533
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
133 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PA AND WESTERN NJ SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BETWEEN 5-6Z. H5 SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR PRECIP
TO REACH THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT CHANCE AS THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE SCATTERED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. EASTERN ZONES WILL DROP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ONGOING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN
BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...AS RIDGING NOSES IN ACROSS
OUR EASTERN SECTIONS. INCLUDED ISO THUNDER ACROSS THE APPROXIMATE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WHERE MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A LITTLE
MORE IN THE WAY OF MUCAPE. ADDITIONALLY...THESE AREAS WILL BE LESS
INFLUENCED BY THE MARITIME AIR BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO E/SE ONSHORE FLOW.

DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...WITH MANY AREAS
STAYING IN THE 70S / BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE FIRST WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING POKING
IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST WILL ALLOW MOST PLACES TO BE DRY LATER IN
THE DAY. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER
LOW TO THE NW OPENS AND APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF A STRONG BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH A DEEP TROUGH OUT WEST WITH AN UPPER LOW
CUTTING OFF OVER THE PAC NW AND AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER ERN CANADA WITH
A WEAK CUTOFF LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS AND TIMING OF VORT MAXES
MOVING AROUND THE LEFT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ONCE IT SLIDES
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GENERAL TREND APPEARS TO BE DECREASING CHC`S OF
SHOWERS DURING FRI AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST
FROM THE N. MAY NEED TO ADD SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AT TIMES THROUGH
SAT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. ADDITIONALLY...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FOR FRI AND
SAT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS A RESULT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE H5 FLOW AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO THE BLOCKING
PATTERN. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD DURING THIS
TIME WITH AN ELY FLOW EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO MON. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THIS TIME...BUT AS
HEIGHTS RISE TUE AND WED...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
KGON...MAINLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND
ANY SHOWER COULD REDUCE CEILINGS OR VSBYS TO MVFR BRIEFLY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NYC METRO AND NORTH AND WEST.

POSSIBLE HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. BEST CHANCE NYC METRO AND NORTH AND WEST.

LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAYTIME.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.TONIGHT...VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.FRI-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXTENDING ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY...AND
ONLY STARTING TO LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THOUGH.

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS...ALTHOUGH COULD
COME CLOSE TO 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE FRI/FRI EVE. AN
INCREASING E-NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN WITH
SCA CONDS EXPECTED BETWEEN FRI NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES THEREAFTER WITH SEAS DIMINISHING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE NJ. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT BASIN AVERAGED TOTALS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN LIGHT...AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PICCA
NEAR TERM...PICCA/JP/MPS
SHORT TERM...PICCA
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...24/PICCA
HYDROLOGY...24/PICCA







000
FXUS61 KOKX 210533
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
133 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PA AND WESTERN NJ SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BETWEEN 5-6Z. H5 SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR PRECIP
TO REACH THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT CHANCE AS THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE SCATTERED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. EASTERN ZONES WILL DROP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ONGOING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN
BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...AS RIDGING NOSES IN ACROSS
OUR EASTERN SECTIONS. INCLUDED ISO THUNDER ACROSS THE APPROXIMATE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WHERE MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A LITTLE
MORE IN THE WAY OF MUCAPE. ADDITIONALLY...THESE AREAS WILL BE LESS
INFLUENCED BY THE MARITIME AIR BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO E/SE ONSHORE FLOW.

DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...WITH MANY AREAS
STAYING IN THE 70S / BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE FIRST WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING POKING
IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST WILL ALLOW MOST PLACES TO BE DRY LATER IN
THE DAY. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER
LOW TO THE NW OPENS AND APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF A STRONG BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH A DEEP TROUGH OUT WEST WITH AN UPPER LOW
CUTTING OFF OVER THE PAC NW AND AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER ERN CANADA WITH
A WEAK CUTOFF LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS AND TIMING OF VORT MAXES
MOVING AROUND THE LEFT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ONCE IT SLIDES
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GENERAL TREND APPEARS TO BE DECREASING CHC`S OF
SHOWERS DURING FRI AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST
FROM THE N. MAY NEED TO ADD SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AT TIMES THROUGH
SAT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. ADDITIONALLY...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FOR FRI AND
SAT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS A RESULT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE H5 FLOW AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO THE BLOCKING
PATTERN. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD DURING THIS
TIME WITH AN ELY FLOW EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO MON. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THIS TIME...BUT AS
HEIGHTS RISE TUE AND WED...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT
KGON...MAINLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND
ANY SHOWER COULD REDUCE CEILINGS OR VSBYS TO MVFR BRIEFLY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NYC METRO AND NORTH AND WEST.

POSSIBLE HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. BEST CHANCE NYC METRO AND NORTH AND WEST.

LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAYTIME.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.TONIGHT...VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.FRI-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXTENDING ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY...AND
ONLY STARTING TO LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THOUGH.

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS...ALTHOUGH COULD
COME CLOSE TO 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE FRI/FRI EVE. AN
INCREASING E-NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN WITH
SCA CONDS EXPECTED BETWEEN FRI NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES THEREAFTER WITH SEAS DIMINISHING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE NJ. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT BASIN AVERAGED TOTALS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN LIGHT...AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PICCA
NEAR TERM...PICCA/JP/MPS
SHORT TERM...PICCA
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...24/PICCA
HYDROLOGY...24/PICCA







000
FXUS61 KALY 210527
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM...HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT TO
REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE AREA WITH
CHANCE POPS FURTHER TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN PAST NIGHTS...GENERALLY IN THE
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST FORCING LOOKING TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. RAIN COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...BUT RIGHT NOW NOT ENOUGH SIGNALS TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
THE GRIDS. WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS
(OROGRAPHICS WILL LIKELY ASSIST WITH ASCENT THERE)...LIKELY POPS
MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT CHANCE POPS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE
FORCING AND PWATS LOOKS LOWER.

WE ARE NOT NECESSARILY EXPECTED A COMPLETE WASHOUT ON THURSDAY...BUT
IT WILL BE DAMP AND GRAY WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME.

DUE TO THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY TOP IN
THE 70S...BUT IT WILL BE HUMID. IF WE WERE TO GET MORE BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...INSTABILITY (WHICH WE EXPECT TO BE LIMITED) WOULD
INCREASE. FOR NOW...JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...(WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK) BUT AGAIN MORE
SUNSHINE COULD MEAN TALLER THUNDER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ACTUAL OCCLUDE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND (LOWER CHANCES AGAIN SOUTH). TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL A LITTLE MORE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST...TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OPENS AND MOVES TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER...INITIALLY THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
LOW SO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND OR POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR
THIS DAY...CARRIED LOW POPS (30) FOR ELEVATIONS 1000 FEET OR
HIGHER...SLIGHT POPS (20) FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DUE TO THE CLOUDS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...LEANED WITH THE (BUT
NOT ALL THE WAY) THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. WE LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 ON FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN REMAINING IN THE 60S ALL DAY LONG.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES BUT WE WILL LIKELY GET UNDER AN
INVERSION WHICH COULD KEEP CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE PATCHY AROUND
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE NO MENTION OF DRIZZLE RIGHT NOW
BUT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DIP BACK MAINLY INTO
THE 50S...LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...UPPER 50S FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

BY SATURDAY...RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
AND LOOKS TO SCOUR AT LEAST SOME OF THE CLOUDS AWAY. A STRAY
AFTERNOON POP UP SHOWER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BUT FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT...THE THREAT OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM THE COLUMN UP A LITTLE. H850 TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND +12C WHICH WITH NORMAL MIXING...WOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST. A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A MORE DOMINANT PRESENCE AS
WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ORIENTATION AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SW TO NE RIGHT OVER OUR AREA WILL PROVIDE CONTINUAL TRANQUIL
WEATHER OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALSO FAVORS LARGE
SCALE SFC DIVERGENCE AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN 80-90 KT JET AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 20/12Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
PAST THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AS TIME GETS CLOSER TO MID NEXT WEEK.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL
SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE APEX OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF OUR REGION AS WE GO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
ALL SITES AS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAINS MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS WE GO INTO 04-06Z THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TO FILL INTO ALL TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES AS INITIAL RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS APPROACH
THE REGION. AS WE APPROACH 12Z THURSDAY...ALL SITES WILL BE MVFR/IFR
AS THE MORE STEADIER LIGHT RAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AT
KGFL/KALB/KPSF. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN WILL BE SLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MVFR AND AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO
AROUND 5-8 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS WE GO TOWARD DAYBREAK PAST
12Z.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD
INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SCATTERED SOUTH OF ALBANY. WE ASSIGNED A "WET
FLAG" TO ALL THE NFDRS EXCEPT STONYKILL. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. THERE COULD BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL CONTAINING LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WHICH COULD LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
SHOULD RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY...CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTH 5-10 MPH ON THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION BRINGING
PWAT AIR OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. DUE TO LOW
RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WELL
OVER AN INCH. THIS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHTER AS THE PWAT VALUES WILL DROP BACK DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...GJM/HWJIV/LFM/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 210527
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM...HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT TO
REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE AREA WITH
CHANCE POPS FURTHER TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN PAST NIGHTS...GENERALLY IN THE
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST FORCING LOOKING TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. RAIN COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...BUT RIGHT NOW NOT ENOUGH SIGNALS TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
THE GRIDS. WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS
(OROGRAPHICS WILL LIKELY ASSIST WITH ASCENT THERE)...LIKELY POPS
MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT CHANCE POPS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE
FORCING AND PWATS LOOKS LOWER.

WE ARE NOT NECESSARILY EXPECTED A COMPLETE WASHOUT ON THURSDAY...BUT
IT WILL BE DAMP AND GRAY WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME.

DUE TO THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY TOP IN
THE 70S...BUT IT WILL BE HUMID. IF WE WERE TO GET MORE BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...INSTABILITY (WHICH WE EXPECT TO BE LIMITED) WOULD
INCREASE. FOR NOW...JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...(WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK) BUT AGAIN MORE
SUNSHINE COULD MEAN TALLER THUNDER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ACTUAL OCCLUDE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND (LOWER CHANCES AGAIN SOUTH). TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL A LITTLE MORE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST...TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OPENS AND MOVES TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER...INITIALLY THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
LOW SO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND OR POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR
THIS DAY...CARRIED LOW POPS (30) FOR ELEVATIONS 1000 FEET OR
HIGHER...SLIGHT POPS (20) FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DUE TO THE CLOUDS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...LEANED WITH THE (BUT
NOT ALL THE WAY) THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. WE LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 ON FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN REMAINING IN THE 60S ALL DAY LONG.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES BUT WE WILL LIKELY GET UNDER AN
INVERSION WHICH COULD KEEP CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE PATCHY AROUND
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE NO MENTION OF DRIZZLE RIGHT NOW
BUT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DIP BACK MAINLY INTO
THE 50S...LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...UPPER 50S FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

BY SATURDAY...RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
AND LOOKS TO SCOUR AT LEAST SOME OF THE CLOUDS AWAY. A STRAY
AFTERNOON POP UP SHOWER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BUT FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT...THE THREAT OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM THE COLUMN UP A LITTLE. H850 TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND +12C WHICH WITH NORMAL MIXING...WOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST. A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A MORE DOMINANT PRESENCE AS
WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ORIENTATION AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SW TO NE RIGHT OVER OUR AREA WILL PROVIDE CONTINUAL TRANQUIL
WEATHER OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALSO FAVORS LARGE
SCALE SFC DIVERGENCE AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN 80-90 KT JET AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 20/12Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
PAST THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AS TIME GETS CLOSER TO MID NEXT WEEK.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL
SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE APEX OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF OUR REGION AS WE GO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
ALL SITES AS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAINS MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS WE GO INTO 04-06Z THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TO FILL INTO ALL TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES AS INITIAL RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS APPROACH
THE REGION. AS WE APPROACH 12Z THURSDAY...ALL SITES WILL BE MVFR/IFR
AS THE MORE STEADIER LIGHT RAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AT
KGFL/KALB/KPSF. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN WILL BE SLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MVFR AND AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO
AROUND 5-8 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS WE GO TOWARD DAYBREAK PAST
12Z.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD
INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SCATTERED SOUTH OF ALBANY. WE ASSIGNED A "WET
FLAG" TO ALL THE NFDRS EXCEPT STONYKILL. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. THERE COULD BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL CONTAINING LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WHICH COULD LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
SHOULD RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY...CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTH 5-10 MPH ON THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION BRINGING
PWAT AIR OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. DUE TO LOW
RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WELL
OVER AN INCH. THIS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHTER AS THE PWAT VALUES WILL DROP BACK DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...GJM/HWJIV/LFM/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV











000
FXUS61 KOKX 210452
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1252 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PA AND WESTERN NJ SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BETWEEN 5-6Z. H5 SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR PRECIP
TO REACH THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT CHANCE AS THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE SCATTERED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. EASTERN ZONES WILL DROP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ONGOING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN
BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...AS RIDGING NOSES IN ACROSS
OUR EASTERN SECTIONS. INCLUDED ISO THUNDER ACROSS THE APPROXIMATE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WHERE MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A LITTLE
MORE IN THE WAY OF MUCAPE. ADDITIONALLY...THESE AREAS WILL BE LESS
INFLUENCED BY THE MARITIME AIR BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO E/SE ONSHORE FLOW.

DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...WITH MANY AREAS
STAYING IN THE 70S / BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE FIRST WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING POKING
IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST WILL ALLOW MOST PLACES TO BE DRY LATER IN
THE DAY. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER
LOW TO THE NW OPENS AND APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF A STRONG BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH A DEEP TROUGH OUT WEST WITH AN UPPER LOW
CUTTING OFF OVER THE PAC NW AND AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER ERN CANADA WITH
A WEAK CUTOFF LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS AND TIMING OF VORT MAXES
MOVING AROUND THE LEFT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ONCE IT SLIDES
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GENERAL TREND APPEARS TO BE DECREASING CHC`S OF
SHOWERS DURING FRI AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST
FROM THE N. MAY NEED TO ADD SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AT TIMES THROUGH
SAT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. ADDITIONALLY...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FOR FRI AND
SAT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS A RESULT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE H5 FLOW AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO THE BLOCKING
PATTERN. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD DURING THIS
TIME WITH AN ELY FLOW EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO MON. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THIS TIME...BUT AS
HEIGHTS RISE TUE AND WED...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

VFR...EXCEPT TEMPO IFR AT KGON EARLY MORNING THURS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BCMG MOSTLY SE AT 10KT OR LESS
THURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NGT...VFR. SCT TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE NY METRO.
.FRI-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXTENDING ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY...AND
ONLY STARTING TO LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THOUGH.

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS...ALTHOUGH COULD
COME CLOSE TO 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE FRI/FRI EVE. AN
INCREASING E-NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN WITH
SCA CONDS EXPECTED BETWEEN FRI NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES THEREAFTER WITH SEAS DIMINISHING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE NJ. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT BASIN AVERAGED TOTALS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN LIGHT...AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PICCA
NEAR TERM...PICCA/JP/MPS
SHORT TERM...PICCA
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...24/PICCA
HYDROLOGY...24/PICCA






000
FXUS61 KOKX 210452
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1252 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PA AND WESTERN NJ SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BETWEEN 5-6Z. H5 SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR PRECIP
TO REACH THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT CHANCE AS THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE SCATTERED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. EASTERN ZONES WILL DROP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ONGOING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN
BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...AS RIDGING NOSES IN ACROSS
OUR EASTERN SECTIONS. INCLUDED ISO THUNDER ACROSS THE APPROXIMATE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WHERE MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A LITTLE
MORE IN THE WAY OF MUCAPE. ADDITIONALLY...THESE AREAS WILL BE LESS
INFLUENCED BY THE MARITIME AIR BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO E/SE ONSHORE FLOW.

DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...WITH MANY AREAS
STAYING IN THE 70S / BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE FIRST WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING POKING
IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST WILL ALLOW MOST PLACES TO BE DRY LATER IN
THE DAY. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER
LOW TO THE NW OPENS AND APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF A STRONG BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH A DEEP TROUGH OUT WEST WITH AN UPPER LOW
CUTTING OFF OVER THE PAC NW AND AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER ERN CANADA WITH
A WEAK CUTOFF LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS AND TIMING OF VORT MAXES
MOVING AROUND THE LEFT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ONCE IT SLIDES
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GENERAL TREND APPEARS TO BE DECREASING CHC`S OF
SHOWERS DURING FRI AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST
FROM THE N. MAY NEED TO ADD SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AT TIMES THROUGH
SAT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. ADDITIONALLY...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FOR FRI AND
SAT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS A RESULT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE H5 FLOW AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO THE BLOCKING
PATTERN. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD DURING THIS
TIME WITH AN ELY FLOW EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO MON. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THIS TIME...BUT AS
HEIGHTS RISE TUE AND WED...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

VFR...EXCEPT TEMPO IFR AT KGON EARLY MORNING THURS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BCMG MOSTLY SE AT 10KT OR LESS
THURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NGT...VFR. SCT TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE NY METRO.
.FRI-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXTENDING ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY...AND
ONLY STARTING TO LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THOUGH.

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS...ALTHOUGH COULD
COME CLOSE TO 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE FRI/FRI EVE. AN
INCREASING E-NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN WITH
SCA CONDS EXPECTED BETWEEN FRI NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES THEREAFTER WITH SEAS DIMINISHING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE NJ. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT BASIN AVERAGED TOTALS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN LIGHT...AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PICCA
NEAR TERM...PICCA/JP/MPS
SHORT TERM...PICCA
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...24/PICCA
HYDROLOGY...24/PICCA







000
FXUS61 KOKX 210244
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1044 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRY UP AS THEY APPROACH WESTERN ZONES. H5
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT CHANCE AS THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE SCATTERED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. EASTERN ZONES WILL DROP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ONGOING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN
BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...AS RIDGING NOSES IN ACROSS
OUR EASTERN SECTIONS. INCLUDED ISO THUNDER ACROSS THE APPROXIMATE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WHERE MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A LITTLE
MORE IN THE WAY OF MUCAPE. ADDITIONALLY...THESE AREAS WILL BE LESS
INFLUENCED BY THE MARITIME AIR BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO E/SE ONSHORE FLOW.

DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...WITH MANY AREAS
STAYING IN THE 70S / BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE FIRST WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING POKING
IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST WILL ALLOW MOST PLACES TO BE DRY LATER IN
THE DAY. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER
LOW TO THE NW OPENS AND APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF A STRONG BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH A DEEP TROUGH OUT WEST WITH AN UPPER LOW
CUTTING OFF OVER THE PAC NW AND AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER ERN CANADA WITH
A WEAK CUTOFF LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS AND TIMING OF VORT MAXES
MOVING AROUND THE LEFT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ONCE IT SLIDES
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GENERAL TREND APPEARS TO BE DECREASING CHC`S OF
SHOWERS DURING FRI AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST
FROM THE N. MAY NEED TO ADD SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AT TIMES THROUGH
SAT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. ADDITIONALLY...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FOR FRI AND
SAT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS A RESULT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE H5 FLOW AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO THE BLOCKING
PATTERN. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD DURING THIS
TIME WITH AN ELY FLOW EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO MON. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THIS TIME...BUT AS
HEIGHTS RISE TUE AND WED...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

VFR...EXCEPT TEMPO IFR AT KGON EARLY MORNING THURS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BCMG MOSTLY SE AT 10KT OR LESS
THURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NGT...VFR. SCT TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE NY METRO.
.FRI-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXTENDING ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY...AND
ONLY STARTING TO LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THOUGH.

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS...ALTHOUGH COULD
COME CLOSE TO 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE FRI/FRI EVE. AN
INCREASING E-NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN WITH
SCA CONDS EXPECTED BETWEEN FRI NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES THEREAFTER WITH SEAS DIMINISHING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE NJ. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT BASIN AVERAGED TOTALS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN LIGHT...AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PICCA
NEAR TERM...PICCA/MPS
SHORT TERM...PICCA
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...24/PICCA
HYDROLOGY...24/PICCA







000
FXUS61 KOKX 210244
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1044 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRY UP AS THEY APPROACH WESTERN ZONES. H5
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT CHANCE AS THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE SCATTERED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. EASTERN ZONES WILL DROP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ONGOING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN
BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...AS RIDGING NOSES IN ACROSS
OUR EASTERN SECTIONS. INCLUDED ISO THUNDER ACROSS THE APPROXIMATE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WHERE MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A LITTLE
MORE IN THE WAY OF MUCAPE. ADDITIONALLY...THESE AREAS WILL BE LESS
INFLUENCED BY THE MARITIME AIR BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO E/SE ONSHORE FLOW.

DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...WITH MANY AREAS
STAYING IN THE 70S / BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE FIRST WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING POKING
IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST WILL ALLOW MOST PLACES TO BE DRY LATER IN
THE DAY. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER
LOW TO THE NW OPENS AND APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF A STRONG BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH A DEEP TROUGH OUT WEST WITH AN UPPER LOW
CUTTING OFF OVER THE PAC NW AND AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER ERN CANADA WITH
A WEAK CUTOFF LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS AND TIMING OF VORT MAXES
MOVING AROUND THE LEFT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ONCE IT SLIDES
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GENERAL TREND APPEARS TO BE DECREASING CHC`S OF
SHOWERS DURING FRI AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST
FROM THE N. MAY NEED TO ADD SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AT TIMES THROUGH
SAT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. ADDITIONALLY...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FOR FRI AND
SAT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS A RESULT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE H5 FLOW AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO THE BLOCKING
PATTERN. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD DURING THIS
TIME WITH AN ELY FLOW EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO MON. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THIS TIME...BUT AS
HEIGHTS RISE TUE AND WED...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

VFR...EXCEPT TEMPO IFR AT KGON EARLY MORNING THURS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BCMG MOSTLY SE AT 10KT OR LESS
THURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NGT...VFR. SCT TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE NY METRO.
.FRI-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXTENDING ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY...AND
ONLY STARTING TO LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THOUGH.

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS...ALTHOUGH COULD
COME CLOSE TO 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE FRI/FRI EVE. AN
INCREASING E-NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN WITH
SCA CONDS EXPECTED BETWEEN FRI NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES THEREAFTER WITH SEAS DIMINISHING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE NJ. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT BASIN AVERAGED TOTALS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN LIGHT...AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PICCA
NEAR TERM...PICCA/MPS
SHORT TERM...PICCA
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...24/PICCA
HYDROLOGY...24/PICCA







000
FXUS61 KOKX 210244
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1044 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRY UP AS THEY APPROACH WESTERN ZONES. H5
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT CHANCE AS THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE SCATTERED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. EASTERN ZONES WILL DROP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ONGOING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN
BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...AS RIDGING NOSES IN ACROSS
OUR EASTERN SECTIONS. INCLUDED ISO THUNDER ACROSS THE APPROXIMATE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WHERE MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A LITTLE
MORE IN THE WAY OF MUCAPE. ADDITIONALLY...THESE AREAS WILL BE LESS
INFLUENCED BY THE MARITIME AIR BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO E/SE ONSHORE FLOW.

DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...WITH MANY AREAS
STAYING IN THE 70S / BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE FIRST WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING POKING
IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST WILL ALLOW MOST PLACES TO BE DRY LATER IN
THE DAY. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER
LOW TO THE NW OPENS AND APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF A STRONG BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH A DEEP TROUGH OUT WEST WITH AN UPPER LOW
CUTTING OFF OVER THE PAC NW AND AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER ERN CANADA WITH
A WEAK CUTOFF LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS AND TIMING OF VORT MAXES
MOVING AROUND THE LEFT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ONCE IT SLIDES
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GENERAL TREND APPEARS TO BE DECREASING CHC`S OF
SHOWERS DURING FRI AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST
FROM THE N. MAY NEED TO ADD SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AT TIMES THROUGH
SAT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. ADDITIONALLY...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FOR FRI AND
SAT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS A RESULT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE H5 FLOW AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO THE BLOCKING
PATTERN. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD DURING THIS
TIME WITH AN ELY FLOW EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO MON. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THIS TIME...BUT AS
HEIGHTS RISE TUE AND WED...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

VFR...EXCEPT TEMPO IFR AT KGON EARLY MORNING THURS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BCMG MOSTLY SE AT 10KT OR LESS
THURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NGT...VFR. SCT TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE NY METRO.
.FRI-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXTENDING ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY...AND
ONLY STARTING TO LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THOUGH.

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS...ALTHOUGH COULD
COME CLOSE TO 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE FRI/FRI EVE. AN
INCREASING E-NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN WITH
SCA CONDS EXPECTED BETWEEN FRI NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES THEREAFTER WITH SEAS DIMINISHING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE NJ. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT BASIN AVERAGED TOTALS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN LIGHT...AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PICCA
NEAR TERM...PICCA/MPS
SHORT TERM...PICCA
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...24/PICCA
HYDROLOGY...24/PICCA







000
FXUS61 KOKX 210244
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1044 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRY UP AS THEY APPROACH WESTERN ZONES. H5
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT CHANCE AS THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE SCATTERED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. EASTERN ZONES WILL DROP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ONGOING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN
BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...AS RIDGING NOSES IN ACROSS
OUR EASTERN SECTIONS. INCLUDED ISO THUNDER ACROSS THE APPROXIMATE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WHERE MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A LITTLE
MORE IN THE WAY OF MUCAPE. ADDITIONALLY...THESE AREAS WILL BE LESS
INFLUENCED BY THE MARITIME AIR BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO E/SE ONSHORE FLOW.

DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...WITH MANY AREAS
STAYING IN THE 70S / BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE FIRST WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING POKING
IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST WILL ALLOW MOST PLACES TO BE DRY LATER IN
THE DAY. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER
LOW TO THE NW OPENS AND APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF A STRONG BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH A DEEP TROUGH OUT WEST WITH AN UPPER LOW
CUTTING OFF OVER THE PAC NW AND AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER ERN CANADA WITH
A WEAK CUTOFF LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS AND TIMING OF VORT MAXES
MOVING AROUND THE LEFT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ONCE IT SLIDES
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GENERAL TREND APPEARS TO BE DECREASING CHC`S OF
SHOWERS DURING FRI AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST
FROM THE N. MAY NEED TO ADD SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AT TIMES THROUGH
SAT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. ADDITIONALLY...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FOR FRI AND
SAT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS A RESULT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE H5 FLOW AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO THE BLOCKING
PATTERN. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD DURING THIS
TIME WITH AN ELY FLOW EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO MON. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THIS TIME...BUT AS
HEIGHTS RISE TUE AND WED...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

VFR...EXCEPT TEMPO IFR AT KGON EARLY MORNING THURS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BCMG MOSTLY SE AT 10KT OR LESS
THURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NGT...VFR. SCT TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE NY METRO.
.FRI-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXTENDING ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY...AND
ONLY STARTING TO LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THOUGH.

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS...ALTHOUGH COULD
COME CLOSE TO 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE FRI/FRI EVE. AN
INCREASING E-NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN WITH
SCA CONDS EXPECTED BETWEEN FRI NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES THEREAFTER WITH SEAS DIMINISHING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE NJ. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT BASIN AVERAGED TOTALS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN LIGHT...AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PICCA
NEAR TERM...PICCA/MPS
SHORT TERM...PICCA
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...24/PICCA
HYDROLOGY...24/PICCA







000
FXUS61 KBUF 210237
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1037 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE MAJORITY
OF THOSE TWO DAYS WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWING THE STEADIER RAIN EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO MAKING SOME PROGRESS EASTWARD...WITH THE BACK EDGE NOW
ACROSS LEWIS COUNTY. EXPECT THIS STEADIER RAIN TO TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A LITTLE DRIZZLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ELSEWHERE THE REST OF THE REGION IS MOSTLY DRY...WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE NIAGARA RIVER. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO MAY DRIFT INTO WESTERN NY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A
BRIEF PASSING SHOWER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...BROAD LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER
LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TO LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE
PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD INTO LAKE ONTARIO
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

TOGETHER...THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THEIR
NORTH AND EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY COMING THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE SUPPORTING
MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW. FOR OUR REGION...THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE FOUND FROM CENTRAL NY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHILE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MUCH MORE SCATTERED THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF WEAKER FORCING...AND
SOMEWHAT LESSER AMOUNTS OF DEEP MOISTURE.

WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...A MOIST AIRMASS...AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN RISK FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY IF CELLS CAN TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER A
PARTICULAR AREA. THAT SAID...THE RISK REMAINS MARGINAL AND VERY
ISOLATED SO NO FLOOD WATCHES ARE JUSTIFIED. AT THE SAME
TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY DUE TO THE ABOVE FACTORS.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...SKIES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING OF OUR WARM AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES WHERE APPRECIABLE RAIN FELL TODAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY LARGELY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. IT
WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW
TRAVERSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
SHIFTS TO THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS...WILL JUST STICK WITH LOWER-END
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO ENCROACH UPON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. THIS
MODERATING EFFECT WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTS WITH LOWS LARGELY
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT DURING
THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION. A
SURFACE HIGH SITTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A BROAD
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN BY FAR THROUGH 06Z WILL BE FOUND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST ALONG A BAND OF DEEP CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL PRODUCE
AREAS OF MVFR VSBY WITH SOME IFR VSBY IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG
WITH SPOTTY MVFR CIGS. THIS STEADIER RAIN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT JUST
EAST OF THE AREA BY 06Z WITH IMPROVING VSBY...ALTHOUGH CIGS MAY
REMAIN MVFR TO IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN EVEN AFTER THE STEADIER
SHOWERS EXIT.

FARTHER WEST ACROSS WEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBY TO BE
MAINLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. AFTER THAT...PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP
WITH LOCAL IFR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
WHERE APPRECIABLE RAIN FELL TODAY. A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN 09Z-12Z AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLS. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MVFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND POSSIBLY IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

IF THESE LOWER CIGS MATERIALIZE...THEY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO MAINLY VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN NY...AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE
IS FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EAST INTO LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THIS LOW TRACKS EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND
WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JJR






000
FXUS61 KBUF 210237
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1037 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE MAJORITY
OF THOSE TWO DAYS WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWING THE STEADIER RAIN EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO MAKING SOME PROGRESS EASTWARD...WITH THE BACK EDGE NOW
ACROSS LEWIS COUNTY. EXPECT THIS STEADIER RAIN TO TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A LITTLE DRIZZLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ELSEWHERE THE REST OF THE REGION IS MOSTLY DRY...WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE NIAGARA RIVER. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO MAY DRIFT INTO WESTERN NY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A
BRIEF PASSING SHOWER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...BROAD LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER
LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TO LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE
PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD INTO LAKE ONTARIO
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

TOGETHER...THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THEIR
NORTH AND EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY COMING THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE SUPPORTING
MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW. FOR OUR REGION...THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE FOUND FROM CENTRAL NY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHILE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MUCH MORE SCATTERED THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF WEAKER FORCING...AND
SOMEWHAT LESSER AMOUNTS OF DEEP MOISTURE.

WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...A MOIST AIRMASS...AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN RISK FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY IF CELLS CAN TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER A
PARTICULAR AREA. THAT SAID...THE RISK REMAINS MARGINAL AND VERY
ISOLATED SO NO FLOOD WATCHES ARE JUSTIFIED. AT THE SAME
TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY DUE TO THE ABOVE FACTORS.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...SKIES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING OF OUR WARM AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES WHERE APPRECIABLE RAIN FELL TODAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY LARGELY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. IT
WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW
TRAVERSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
SHIFTS TO THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS...WILL JUST STICK WITH LOWER-END
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO ENCROACH UPON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. THIS
MODERATING EFFECT WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTS WITH LOWS LARGELY
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT DURING
THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION. A
SURFACE HIGH SITTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A BROAD
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN BY FAR THROUGH 06Z WILL BE FOUND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST ALONG A BAND OF DEEP CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL PRODUCE
AREAS OF MVFR VSBY WITH SOME IFR VSBY IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG
WITH SPOTTY MVFR CIGS. THIS STEADIER RAIN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT JUST
EAST OF THE AREA BY 06Z WITH IMPROVING VSBY...ALTHOUGH CIGS MAY
REMAIN MVFR TO IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN EVEN AFTER THE STEADIER
SHOWERS EXIT.

FARTHER WEST ACROSS WEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBY TO BE
MAINLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. AFTER THAT...PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP
WITH LOCAL IFR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
WHERE APPRECIABLE RAIN FELL TODAY. A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN 09Z-12Z AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLS. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MVFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND POSSIBLY IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

IF THESE LOWER CIGS MATERIALIZE...THEY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO MAINLY VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN NY...AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE
IS FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EAST INTO LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THIS LOW TRACKS EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND
WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JJR






000
FXUS61 KBUF 210237
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1037 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE MAJORITY
OF THOSE TWO DAYS WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWING THE STEADIER RAIN EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO MAKING SOME PROGRESS EASTWARD...WITH THE BACK EDGE NOW
ACROSS LEWIS COUNTY. EXPECT THIS STEADIER RAIN TO TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A LITTLE DRIZZLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ELSEWHERE THE REST OF THE REGION IS MOSTLY DRY...WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE NIAGARA RIVER. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO MAY DRIFT INTO WESTERN NY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A
BRIEF PASSING SHOWER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...BROAD LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER
LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TO LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE
PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD INTO LAKE ONTARIO
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

TOGETHER...THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THEIR
NORTH AND EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY COMING THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE SUPPORTING
MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW. FOR OUR REGION...THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE FOUND FROM CENTRAL NY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHILE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MUCH MORE SCATTERED THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF WEAKER FORCING...AND
SOMEWHAT LESSER AMOUNTS OF DEEP MOISTURE.

WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...A MOIST AIRMASS...AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN RISK FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY IF CELLS CAN TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER A
PARTICULAR AREA. THAT SAID...THE RISK REMAINS MARGINAL AND VERY
ISOLATED SO NO FLOOD WATCHES ARE JUSTIFIED. AT THE SAME
TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY DUE TO THE ABOVE FACTORS.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...SKIES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING OF OUR WARM AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES WHERE APPRECIABLE RAIN FELL TODAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY LARGELY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. IT
WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW
TRAVERSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
SHIFTS TO THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS...WILL JUST STICK WITH LOWER-END
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO ENCROACH UPON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. THIS
MODERATING EFFECT WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTS WITH LOWS LARGELY
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT DURING
THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION. A
SURFACE HIGH SITTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A BROAD
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN BY FAR THROUGH 06Z WILL BE FOUND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST ALONG A BAND OF DEEP CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL PRODUCE
AREAS OF MVFR VSBY WITH SOME IFR VSBY IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG
WITH SPOTTY MVFR CIGS. THIS STEADIER RAIN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT JUST
EAST OF THE AREA BY 06Z WITH IMPROVING VSBY...ALTHOUGH CIGS MAY
REMAIN MVFR TO IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN EVEN AFTER THE STEADIER
SHOWERS EXIT.

FARTHER WEST ACROSS WEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBY TO BE
MAINLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. AFTER THAT...PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP
WITH LOCAL IFR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
WHERE APPRECIABLE RAIN FELL TODAY. A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN 09Z-12Z AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLS. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MVFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND POSSIBLY IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

IF THESE LOWER CIGS MATERIALIZE...THEY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO MAINLY VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN NY...AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE
IS FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EAST INTO LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THIS LOW TRACKS EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND
WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JJR






000
FXUS61 KBUF 210237
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1037 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE MAJORITY
OF THOSE TWO DAYS WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWING THE STEADIER RAIN EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO MAKING SOME PROGRESS EASTWARD...WITH THE BACK EDGE NOW
ACROSS LEWIS COUNTY. EXPECT THIS STEADIER RAIN TO TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A LITTLE DRIZZLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ELSEWHERE THE REST OF THE REGION IS MOSTLY DRY...WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE NIAGARA RIVER. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO MAY DRIFT INTO WESTERN NY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A
BRIEF PASSING SHOWER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...BROAD LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER
LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TO LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE
PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD INTO LAKE ONTARIO
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

TOGETHER...THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THEIR
NORTH AND EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY COMING THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE SUPPORTING
MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW. FOR OUR REGION...THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE FOUND FROM CENTRAL NY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHILE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MUCH MORE SCATTERED THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF WEAKER FORCING...AND
SOMEWHAT LESSER AMOUNTS OF DEEP MOISTURE.

WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...A MOIST AIRMASS...AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN RISK FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY IF CELLS CAN TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER A
PARTICULAR AREA. THAT SAID...THE RISK REMAINS MARGINAL AND VERY
ISOLATED SO NO FLOOD WATCHES ARE JUSTIFIED. AT THE SAME
TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY DUE TO THE ABOVE FACTORS.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...SKIES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING OF OUR WARM AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES WHERE APPRECIABLE RAIN FELL TODAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY LARGELY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. IT
WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW
TRAVERSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
SHIFTS TO THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS...WILL JUST STICK WITH LOWER-END
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO ENCROACH UPON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. THIS
MODERATING EFFECT WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTS WITH LOWS LARGELY
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT DURING
THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION. A
SURFACE HIGH SITTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A BROAD
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN BY FAR THROUGH 06Z WILL BE FOUND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST ALONG A BAND OF DEEP CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL PRODUCE
AREAS OF MVFR VSBY WITH SOME IFR VSBY IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG
WITH SPOTTY MVFR CIGS. THIS STEADIER RAIN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT JUST
EAST OF THE AREA BY 06Z WITH IMPROVING VSBY...ALTHOUGH CIGS MAY
REMAIN MVFR TO IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN EVEN AFTER THE STEADIER
SHOWERS EXIT.

FARTHER WEST ACROSS WEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBY TO BE
MAINLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. AFTER THAT...PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP
WITH LOCAL IFR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
WHERE APPRECIABLE RAIN FELL TODAY. A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN 09Z-12Z AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLS. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MVFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND POSSIBLY IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

IF THESE LOWER CIGS MATERIALIZE...THEY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO MAINLY VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN NY...AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE
IS FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EAST INTO LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THIS LOW TRACKS EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND
WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JJR






000
FXUS61 KBTV 210212
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1012 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
VERMONT. DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THAT HIGH WILL STICK AROUND, GIVING
US A LONG STRING OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER THAT WILL LAST FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1012 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN NY CONTINUES TO SEE RAIN
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE SLV
AND ERN ADKS. THESE SHOWERS ARE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND HALF INCH...AND
ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS A LITTLE OVER AN INCH...AS INDICATED BY
RADAR. LOCAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE GRADUAL TRACK OF
PRECIP WELL...WITH SOME ISO TO SCT SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN
THE UPPER HUDSON/LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WHILE MAIN SHIELD OF
PRECIP REMAINS EAST OF THE CPV TIL AFTER 06Z. THIS SLOW
PROGRESSION IS DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT STALLED NATURE/MOVEMENT OF
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER LAKE HURON.

TEMPS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN VT WHERE
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK UNDER OVERCAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW OPENS
UP/WEAKENS AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN NY /LIKELY POPS/ ON THURSDAY...THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VT IS ON THURSDAY. AIRMASS STILL
IS FAIRLY MOIST WITH PWS AROUND 1.5" WITH 12Z NAM SHOWING CAPE
VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. THE THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY IS
LIMITED GIVEN EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO LOSING
BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING GIVEN WEAKENING UPPER LOW. THEREFORE I`VE
ONLY GONE WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY. DESPITE 850 TEMPS OF +11 TO
+13C...OVERCAST WILL ONLY KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. OVERALL
DECREASING TREND IN POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCE
PIVOTS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

LARGE GRADIENT IN STORM TOTAL QPF /SPANNING WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY/. AMOUNTS RANGE FROM NIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM...UNDER 0.5" FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...TO UP TO 1.25" FOR
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD
QUEBEC AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
TO AN OPEN WAVE. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
BUT SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL WIN OUT BY LATE IN THE
DAY INTO THE EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MORE BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO
TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...12Z GUIDANCE FROM GFS, GFS ENSEMBLES
AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY DARN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER
AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL PREVIOUS RUNS, THUS I WOULD RATE MY
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS ABOVE NORMAL. IN SUMMARY, LARGE
SCALE BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY, RESULTING IN DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK (SUMMER WILL HANG ON NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAKES THIS
FORECASTER PERSONALLY HAPPY). WITH THE CLOSENESS AMONG THE MODELS, I
SAW NO REASON TO SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATE FROM THE PURE BLEND BETWEEN
THEM ALL. HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA.
STILL SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT IN
GENERAL THE FORECAST IS A DRY ONE. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY NOSING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. LUCKILY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR WARMEST SO I DON`T EXPECT ANY
ISSUES WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AS WE WOULD SEE IN
THE SPRING OR EVEN EARLY SUMMER. HOWEVER IT WILL SET UP AN A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND WARMEST IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10-12C (EAST TO WEST), HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO UPPER 70S IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT.
VALLEY FOG WILL PROBABLY FORM AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...DITTO.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH ON TOP OF THE AREA
ALONG WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. NET RESULT: LOTS OF SUN AND VERY
LIGHT WINDS. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE 12-13C RANGE AND WITH
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING, WE SHOULD REALIZE THE FULL POTENTIAL OF WARMTH
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. MONDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...ALMOST IDENTICAL TO MONDAY, EXCEPT THE HIGH SINKS JUST A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. IN RESPONSE, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A DEGREE OR TWO
FROM MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP AROUND 12-14C, SO LOOK
FOR LOWER 80S TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. STILL DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND
A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PERHAPS AS LOW AS 7500FT SO ANY
DAYTIME CUMULUS THAT FORMS WILL BE VERY SHALLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS A REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH IS A REPEAT OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME. GFS & IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE STRONG, MEANING LOTS O` SUN. ECMWF FLATTENS
THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE
NORTH AND BRINGS IN SOME MOISTURE TO NORTHERN NY LATE IN THE DAY
SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ABOUT. WITH THE BLEND I USED, I
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION, BUT PAINTED IN SOME 10-20%
POPS IN NORTHERN NY. THE BASIC WORDED FORECAST WILL INDICATE A DRY
DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 14-16C OR SO, THUS EVEN MORE OF
THE AREA WILL BE POKING ABOVE THE 80F MARK -- WITH EVEN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY....OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS BUT AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z AND
THUS EXPECTING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE SHOWERS. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AND CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...00Z FRI TO 00Z SAT...AREAS
OF MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS.

00Z SAT ONWARD...VFR, EXCEPT IFR IN LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG
(PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...KGM/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 210212
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1012 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
VERMONT. DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THAT HIGH WILL STICK AROUND, GIVING
US A LONG STRING OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER THAT WILL LAST FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1012 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN NY CONTINUES TO SEE RAIN
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE SLV
AND ERN ADKS. THESE SHOWERS ARE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND HALF INCH...AND
ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS A LITTLE OVER AN INCH...AS INDICATED BY
RADAR. LOCAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE GRADUAL TRACK OF
PRECIP WELL...WITH SOME ISO TO SCT SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN
THE UPPER HUDSON/LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WHILE MAIN SHIELD OF
PRECIP REMAINS EAST OF THE CPV TIL AFTER 06Z. THIS SLOW
PROGRESSION IS DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT STALLED NATURE/MOVEMENT OF
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER LAKE HURON.

TEMPS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN VT WHERE
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK UNDER OVERCAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW OPENS
UP/WEAKENS AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN NY /LIKELY POPS/ ON THURSDAY...THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VT IS ON THURSDAY. AIRMASS STILL
IS FAIRLY MOIST WITH PWS AROUND 1.5" WITH 12Z NAM SHOWING CAPE
VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. THE THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY IS
LIMITED GIVEN EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO LOSING
BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING GIVEN WEAKENING UPPER LOW. THEREFORE I`VE
ONLY GONE WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY. DESPITE 850 TEMPS OF +11 TO
+13C...OVERCAST WILL ONLY KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. OVERALL
DECREASING TREND IN POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCE
PIVOTS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

LARGE GRADIENT IN STORM TOTAL QPF /SPANNING WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY/. AMOUNTS RANGE FROM NIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM...UNDER 0.5" FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...TO UP TO 1.25" FOR
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD
QUEBEC AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
TO AN OPEN WAVE. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
BUT SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL WIN OUT BY LATE IN THE
DAY INTO THE EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MORE BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO
TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...12Z GUIDANCE FROM GFS, GFS ENSEMBLES
AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY DARN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER
AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL PREVIOUS RUNS, THUS I WOULD RATE MY
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS ABOVE NORMAL. IN SUMMARY, LARGE
SCALE BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY, RESULTING IN DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK (SUMMER WILL HANG ON NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAKES THIS
FORECASTER PERSONALLY HAPPY). WITH THE CLOSENESS AMONG THE MODELS, I
SAW NO REASON TO SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATE FROM THE PURE BLEND BETWEEN
THEM ALL. HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA.
STILL SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT IN
GENERAL THE FORECAST IS A DRY ONE. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY NOSING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. LUCKILY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR WARMEST SO I DON`T EXPECT ANY
ISSUES WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AS WE WOULD SEE IN
THE SPRING OR EVEN EARLY SUMMER. HOWEVER IT WILL SET UP AN A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND WARMEST IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10-12C (EAST TO WEST), HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO UPPER 70S IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT.
VALLEY FOG WILL PROBABLY FORM AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...DITTO.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH ON TOP OF THE AREA
ALONG WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. NET RESULT: LOTS OF SUN AND VERY
LIGHT WINDS. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE 12-13C RANGE AND WITH
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING, WE SHOULD REALIZE THE FULL POTENTIAL OF WARMTH
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. MONDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...ALMOST IDENTICAL TO MONDAY, EXCEPT THE HIGH SINKS JUST A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. IN RESPONSE, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A DEGREE OR TWO
FROM MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP AROUND 12-14C, SO LOOK
FOR LOWER 80S TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. STILL DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND
A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PERHAPS AS LOW AS 7500FT SO ANY
DAYTIME CUMULUS THAT FORMS WILL BE VERY SHALLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS A REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH IS A REPEAT OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME. GFS & IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE STRONG, MEANING LOTS O` SUN. ECMWF FLATTENS
THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE
NORTH AND BRINGS IN SOME MOISTURE TO NORTHERN NY LATE IN THE DAY
SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ABOUT. WITH THE BLEND I USED, I
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION, BUT PAINTED IN SOME 10-20%
POPS IN NORTHERN NY. THE BASIC WORDED FORECAST WILL INDICATE A DRY
DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 14-16C OR SO, THUS EVEN MORE OF
THE AREA WILL BE POKING ABOVE THE 80F MARK -- WITH EVEN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY....OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS BUT AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z AND
THUS EXPECTING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE SHOWERS. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AND CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...00Z FRI TO 00Z SAT...AREAS
OF MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS.

00Z SAT ONWARD...VFR, EXCEPT IFR IN LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG
(PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...KGM/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 210200
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1000 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. THIS LOW WILL PASS EAST, AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING WEATHER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE IS NOW EAST OF THE FA, LEAVING US IN A
TEMPORARY LULL. PULLED BACK ON THE PRECIP COVERAGE OVERNIGHT,
LEANING TOWARD LOW CHANCE WEST AND HIGH CHANCE EAST THROUGH EARLY
MORNING.

NEXT SHOT OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE NEXT WAVE
ROTATING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NY/PA THURSDAY MID
MORNING.

LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A BETTER CAPE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE LOOKS OVERDONE,
WITH 500-1000 J/KG CAPE VALUES LOOKING MORE REALISTIC.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS SLOW MOVING SHRA IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION THAT WERE
BACK BUILDING TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER, THE SHRA WERE BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORMISH IN NATURE AS THERE WAS LITTLE CAPE AROUND 200 TO 300
J/KG. THE CAPE WAS ALSO TALL AND SKINNY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
SINCE THE CAPE WAS NOT THAT HIGH THE ACVTY REALLY WASNT BLOSSOMING
ENUF FOR HEAVY RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE NO FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES PLANNED. WE ARE SEEING SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE
URBAN ISSUES IN A FEW PLACES AND HAVE COVERED WITH FLOOD
ADVISORIES. THESE SHRA WILL CONT TO WORK E AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROF THAT WAS SUPPORTG THE ABV MENTIONED ACVTY
EXTENDED FROM NEAR SSM SOUTHWARD TO THE ERN OHIO VALLEY. ALL THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THAT A FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH E INTO C
NY AND NRN PA FROM THE ERN OH VLLY AND WEAKEN BY 23 TO 00Z. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE ACVTY TO CONT TO WORK E INTO THIS EVENING. THEN
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY SEEN OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES AND WILL
EXTEND NW TO SE FROM THE ERN LAKES TO NJ BY 08Z TO 09Z AND
SUPPORT RENEWED SHRA AND POTENTIALLY A LITTLE THUNDER LATER
TONIGHT. AGAIN CAPES WILL BE LOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOOD ISSUES BUT POPS WILL BE HIGHER.

FOR THURSDAY...THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL SUPPORT MORE SHRA AND MORE
TSRA AS CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THU THAN TODAY. PLUS THERE
IS A LITTLE MORE SHEAR. BUT SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES ARE BELOW WHAT
WOULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER HISTORICALLY. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG WITH BULK WIND SHEARS BETWEEN 0
AND 6 KM ARND 20 KNOTS. AGAIN PWATS ARE ARND 1.5 INCHES AND
STORMS WON/T BE MOVING THAT FAST AS MBE VECTORS ARE SMALL SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND FILLS AS IT WORKS OVER NY AND PA. GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND A FAIRLY MOIST BNDRY
LAYER...I CAN SEE SOME ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A LITTLE THUNDER
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD WHERE DWPTS
WILL REMAIN HIGHER AND THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL CAPE INTO THE NIGHT. SFC
RDGING WAS BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM NEW ENGLAND AND BEGINS TO DRY
OUT OUR ERN ZONES FROM THE UPPER MOHAWK TO WRN CATSKILLS THU NGT.
HENCE POPS ARE HIGHER TO THE W OF I-81 AND LOWER TO THE E THU NGT.
THIS PATTERN OF INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS A WEAK
IMPULSE DROPS SEWRD. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHRA OR TSRA FRI SO I
HAVE POPS FRI FM SLGHT CHC TO CHC WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST.
SOME ACVTY CUD LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT SO HAVE KEPT SOME RESIDUAL POPS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY.

FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW ENGLAND AND WE
SHUD HAVE FAIR WEATHER WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
WPC GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WITH 588 DM
HEIGHTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS RIDGE WITH VERY
QUIET WEATHER. WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR
THE SURFACE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST,
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. EVENTUALLY THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MUCH, MUCH WARMER AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS DONE AT AVP AND SHOULD END IN NY BY 4Z. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS AND MAYBE BRIEF IFR VSBYS.
WITH THE SOUPY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA ALL NY SITES WILL FALL TO IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS BY 9Z AND NOT LIFT UNTIL 14 OR 15Z. CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TO 2 TO 4K FT BY 18Z WHEN SHOWERS START AGAIN. AT
AVP MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS 8 TO 15Z. LESS CHC OF SHOWERS THERE AGAIN
SO DID NOT INCLUDE ATTM.

LIGHT S TO SE OR CALM WINDS TONIGHT. THU S TO SW WINDS AT 4 TO 8
KTS.


OUTLOOK...

THU NGT TO FRI NGT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN
SHRA/TSRA. LATE THU NGT AND FRI NGT...IFR FOG AND STRATUS
POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY FOG AT KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 210200
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1000 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. THIS LOW WILL PASS EAST, AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING WEATHER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE IS NOW EAST OF THE FA, LEAVING US IN A
TEMPORARY LULL. PULLED BACK ON THE PRECIP COVERAGE OVERNIGHT,
LEANING TOWARD LOW CHANCE WEST AND HIGH CHANCE EAST THROUGH EARLY
MORNING.

NEXT SHOT OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE NEXT WAVE
ROTATING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NY/PA THURSDAY MID
MORNING.

LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A BETTER CAPE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE LOOKS OVERDONE,
WITH 500-1000 J/KG CAPE VALUES LOOKING MORE REALISTIC.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS SLOW MOVING SHRA IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION THAT WERE
BACK BUILDING TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER, THE SHRA WERE BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORMISH IN NATURE AS THERE WAS LITTLE CAPE AROUND 200 TO 300
J/KG. THE CAPE WAS ALSO TALL AND SKINNY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
SINCE THE CAPE WAS NOT THAT HIGH THE ACVTY REALLY WASNT BLOSSOMING
ENUF FOR HEAVY RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE NO FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES PLANNED. WE ARE SEEING SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE
URBAN ISSUES IN A FEW PLACES AND HAVE COVERED WITH FLOOD
ADVISORIES. THESE SHRA WILL CONT TO WORK E AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROF THAT WAS SUPPORTG THE ABV MENTIONED ACVTY
EXTENDED FROM NEAR SSM SOUTHWARD TO THE ERN OHIO VALLEY. ALL THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THAT A FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH E INTO C
NY AND NRN PA FROM THE ERN OH VLLY AND WEAKEN BY 23 TO 00Z. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE ACVTY TO CONT TO WORK E INTO THIS EVENING. THEN
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY SEEN OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES AND WILL
EXTEND NW TO SE FROM THE ERN LAKES TO NJ BY 08Z TO 09Z AND
SUPPORT RENEWED SHRA AND POTENTIALLY A LITTLE THUNDER LATER
TONIGHT. AGAIN CAPES WILL BE LOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOOD ISSUES BUT POPS WILL BE HIGHER.

FOR THURSDAY...THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL SUPPORT MORE SHRA AND MORE
TSRA AS CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THU THAN TODAY. PLUS THERE
IS A LITTLE MORE SHEAR. BUT SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES ARE BELOW WHAT
WOULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER HISTORICALLY. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG WITH BULK WIND SHEARS BETWEEN 0
AND 6 KM ARND 20 KNOTS. AGAIN PWATS ARE ARND 1.5 INCHES AND
STORMS WON/T BE MOVING THAT FAST AS MBE VECTORS ARE SMALL SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND FILLS AS IT WORKS OVER NY AND PA. GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND A FAIRLY MOIST BNDRY
LAYER...I CAN SEE SOME ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A LITTLE THUNDER
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD WHERE DWPTS
WILL REMAIN HIGHER AND THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL CAPE INTO THE NIGHT. SFC
RDGING WAS BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM NEW ENGLAND AND BEGINS TO DRY
OUT OUR ERN ZONES FROM THE UPPER MOHAWK TO WRN CATSKILLS THU NGT.
HENCE POPS ARE HIGHER TO THE W OF I-81 AND LOWER TO THE E THU NGT.
THIS PATTERN OF INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS A WEAK
IMPULSE DROPS SEWRD. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHRA OR TSRA FRI SO I
HAVE POPS FRI FM SLGHT CHC TO CHC WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST.
SOME ACVTY CUD LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT SO HAVE KEPT SOME RESIDUAL POPS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY.

FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW ENGLAND AND WE
SHUD HAVE FAIR WEATHER WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
WPC GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WITH 588 DM
HEIGHTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS RIDGE WITH VERY
QUIET WEATHER. WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR
THE SURFACE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST,
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. EVENTUALLY THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MUCH, MUCH WARMER AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS DONE AT AVP AND SHOULD END IN NY BY 4Z. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS AND MAYBE BRIEF IFR VSBYS.
WITH THE SOUPY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA ALL NY SITES WILL FALL TO IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS BY 9Z AND NOT LIFT UNTIL 14 OR 15Z. CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TO 2 TO 4K FT BY 18Z WHEN SHOWERS START AGAIN. AT
AVP MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS 8 TO 15Z. LESS CHC OF SHOWERS THERE AGAIN
SO DID NOT INCLUDE ATTM.

LIGHT S TO SE OR CALM WINDS TONIGHT. THU S TO SW WINDS AT 4 TO 8
KTS.


OUTLOOK...

THU NGT TO FRI NGT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN
SHRA/TSRA. LATE THU NGT AND FRI NGT...IFR FOG AND STRATUS
POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY FOG AT KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...TAC






000
FXUS61 KALY 210154
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
954 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILERS IN. THIS
WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT
ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT...A BROAD AREA OF RAIN IS FILLING IN BEHIND SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD
IN PARTS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS HIGHER
PWAT VALUES OFF TO OUR WEST THAT WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE REGION
SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADY RAINFALL AS WE GO INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

MEANWHILE...THE DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...WAS STILL TO OUR WEST.

THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF LULL DURING THE LATE EVENING BEFORE MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WORK FROM THE WEST ARRIVE LATER
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. THESE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL
JET.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN PAST NIGHTS...GENERALLY LOWS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST FORCING LOOKING TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. RAIN COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...BUT RIGHT NOW NOT ENOUGH SIGNALS TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
THE GRIDS. WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS
(OROGRAPHICS WILL LIKELY ASSIST WITH ASCENT THERE)...LIKELY POPS
MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT CHANCE POPS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE
FORCING AND PWATS LOOKS LOWER.

WE ARE NOT NECESSARILY EXPECTED A COMPLETE WASHOUT ON THURSDAY...BUT
IT WILL BE DAMP AND GRAY WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME.

DUE TO THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY TOP IN
THE 70S...BUT IT WILL BE HUMID. IF WE WERE TO GET MORE BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...INSTABILITY (WHICH WE EXPECT TO BE LIMITED) WOULD
INCREASE. FOR NOW...JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...(WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK) BUT AGAIN MORE
SUNSHINE COULD MEAN TALLER THUNDER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ACTUAL OCCLUDE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND (LOWER CHANCES AGAIN SOUTH). TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL A LITTLE MORE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST...TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OPENS AND MOVES TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER...INITIALLY THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
LOW SO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND OR POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR
THIS DAY...CARRIED LOW POPS (30) FOR ELEVATIONS 1000 FEET OR
HIGHER...SLIGHT POPS (20) FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DUE TO THE CLOUDS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...LEANED WITH THE (BUT
NOT ALL THE WAY) THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. WE LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 ON FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN REMAINING IN THE 60S ALL DAY LONG.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES BUT WE WILL LIKELY GET UNDER AN
INVERSION WHICH COULD KEEP CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE PATCHY AROUND
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE NO MENTION OF DRIZZLE RIGHT NOW
BUT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DIP BACK MAINLY INTO
THE 50S...LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...UPPER 50S FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

BY SATURDAY...RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
AND LOOKS TO SCOUR AT LEAST SOME OF THE CLOUDS AWAY. A STRAY
AFTERNOON POP UP SHOWER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BUT FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT...THE THREAT OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM THE COLUMN UP A LITTLE. H850 TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND +12C WHICH WITH NORMAL MIXING...WOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST. A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A MORE DOMINANT PRESENCE AS
WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ORIENTATION AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SW TO NE RIGHT OVER OUR AREA WILL PROVIDE CONTINUAL TRANQUIL
WEATHER OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALSO FAVORS LARGE
SCALE SFC DIVERGENCE AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN 80-90 KT JET AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 20/12Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
PAST THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AS TIME GETS CLOSER TO MID NEXT WEEK.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL
SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE APEX OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF OUR REGION AS WE GO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES AS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAINS MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS WE GO INTO 04-06Z THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
FILL INTO ALL TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES AS INITIAL RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS APPROACH THE REGION.
AS WE APPROACH 12Z THURSDAY...ALL SITES WILL BE MVFR/IFR AS THE MORE
STEADIER LIGHT RAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AT
KGFL/KALB/KPSF. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN WILL BE SLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MVFR AND AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO
AROUND 5-8 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS WE GO TOWARD DAYBREAK PAST
12Z.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD
INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SCATTERED SOUTH OF ALBANY. WE ASSIGNED A "WET
FLAG" TO ALL THE NFDRS EXCEPT STONYKILL. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. THERE COULD BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL CONTAINING LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WHICH COULD LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
SHOULD RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY...CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTH 5-10 MPH ON THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION BRINGING
PWAT AIR OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. DUE TO LOW
RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WELL
OVER AN INCH. THIS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHTER AS THE PWAT VALUES WILL DROP BACK DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 210154
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
954 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILERS IN. THIS
WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT
ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT...A BROAD AREA OF RAIN IS FILLING IN BEHIND SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD
IN PARTS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS HIGHER
PWAT VALUES OFF TO OUR WEST THAT WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE REGION
SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADY RAINFALL AS WE GO INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

MEANWHILE...THE DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...WAS STILL TO OUR WEST.

THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF LULL DURING THE LATE EVENING BEFORE MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WORK FROM THE WEST ARRIVE LATER
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. THESE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL
JET.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN PAST NIGHTS...GENERALLY LOWS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST FORCING LOOKING TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. RAIN COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...BUT RIGHT NOW NOT ENOUGH SIGNALS TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
THE GRIDS. WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS
(OROGRAPHICS WILL LIKELY ASSIST WITH ASCENT THERE)...LIKELY POPS
MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT CHANCE POPS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE
FORCING AND PWATS LOOKS LOWER.

WE ARE NOT NECESSARILY EXPECTED A COMPLETE WASHOUT ON THURSDAY...BUT
IT WILL BE DAMP AND GRAY WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME.

DUE TO THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY TOP IN
THE 70S...BUT IT WILL BE HUMID. IF WE WERE TO GET MORE BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...INSTABILITY (WHICH WE EXPECT TO BE LIMITED) WOULD
INCREASE. FOR NOW...JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...(WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK) BUT AGAIN MORE
SUNSHINE COULD MEAN TALLER THUNDER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ACTUAL OCCLUDE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND (LOWER CHANCES AGAIN SOUTH). TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL A LITTLE MORE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST...TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OPENS AND MOVES TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER...INITIALLY THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
LOW SO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND OR POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR
THIS DAY...CARRIED LOW POPS (30) FOR ELEVATIONS 1000 FEET OR
HIGHER...SLIGHT POPS (20) FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DUE TO THE CLOUDS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...LEANED WITH THE (BUT
NOT ALL THE WAY) THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. WE LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 ON FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN REMAINING IN THE 60S ALL DAY LONG.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES BUT WE WILL LIKELY GET UNDER AN
INVERSION WHICH COULD KEEP CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE PATCHY AROUND
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE NO MENTION OF DRIZZLE RIGHT NOW
BUT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DIP BACK MAINLY INTO
THE 50S...LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...UPPER 50S FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

BY SATURDAY...RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
AND LOOKS TO SCOUR AT LEAST SOME OF THE CLOUDS AWAY. A STRAY
AFTERNOON POP UP SHOWER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BUT FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT...THE THREAT OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM THE COLUMN UP A LITTLE. H850 TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND +12C WHICH WITH NORMAL MIXING...WOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST. A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A MORE DOMINANT PRESENCE AS
WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ORIENTATION AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SW TO NE RIGHT OVER OUR AREA WILL PROVIDE CONTINUAL TRANQUIL
WEATHER OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALSO FAVORS LARGE
SCALE SFC DIVERGENCE AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN 80-90 KT JET AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 20/12Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
PAST THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AS TIME GETS CLOSER TO MID NEXT WEEK.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL
SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE APEX OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF OUR REGION AS WE GO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES AS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAINS MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS WE GO INTO 04-06Z THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
FILL INTO ALL TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES AS INITIAL RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS APPROACH THE REGION.
AS WE APPROACH 12Z THURSDAY...ALL SITES WILL BE MVFR/IFR AS THE MORE
STEADIER LIGHT RAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AT
KGFL/KALB/KPSF. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN WILL BE SLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MVFR AND AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO
AROUND 5-8 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS WE GO TOWARD DAYBREAK PAST
12Z.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD
INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SCATTERED SOUTH OF ALBANY. WE ASSIGNED A "WET
FLAG" TO ALL THE NFDRS EXCEPT STONYKILL. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. THERE COULD BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL CONTAINING LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WHICH COULD LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
SHOULD RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY...CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTH 5-10 MPH ON THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION BRINGING
PWAT AIR OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. DUE TO LOW
RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WELL
OVER AN INCH. THIS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHTER AS THE PWAT VALUES WILL DROP BACK DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 210141
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
941 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRY UP AS THEY APPROACH WESTERN ZONES. H5
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT CHANCE AS THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE SCATTERED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. EASTERN ZONES WILL DROP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ONGOING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN
BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...AS RIDGING NOSES IN ACROSS
OUR EASTERN SECTIONS. INCLUDED ISO THUNDER ACROSS THE APPROXIMATE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WHERE MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A LITTLE
MORE IN THE WAY OF MUCAPE. ADDITIONALLY...THESE AREAS WILL BE LESS
INFLUENCED BY THE MARITIME AIR BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO E/SE ONSHORE FLOW.

DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...WITH MANY AREAS
STAYING IN THE 70S / BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE FIRST WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING POKING
IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST WILL ALLOW MOST PLACES TO BE DRY LATER IN
THE DAY. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER
LOW TO THE NW OPENS AND APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF A STRONG BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH A DEEP TROUGH OUT WEST WITH AN UPPER LOW
CUTTING OFF OVER THE PAC NW AND AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER ERN CANADA WITH
A WEAK CUTOFF LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS AND TIMING OF VORT MAXES
MOVING AROUND THE LEFT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ONCE IT SLIDES
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GENERAL TREND APPEARS TO BE DECREASING CHC`S OF
SHOWERS DURING FRI AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST
FROM THE N. MAY NEED TO ADD SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AT TIMES THROUGH
SAT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. ADDITIONALLY...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FOR FRI AND
SAT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS A RESULT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE H5 FLOW AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO THE BLOCKING
PATTERN. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD DURING THIS
TIME WITH AN ELY FLOW EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO MON. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THIS TIME...BUT AS
HEIGHTS RISE TUE AND WED...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

VFR...EXCEPT TEMPO IFR VSBYS AT KGON LATE TONIGHT.

SCT -SHRA WITH NO REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CATEGORY WEST OF KISP-KBDR
FROM 03Z-05Z.

THURSDAY MORNING COULD START OFF WITH SOME CIGS AROUND 030...THESE
SHOULD RISE SLIGHTLY TO AT LEAST 035-040 BY AFTERNOON.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NGT...VFR. SCT TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE NY METRO.
.FRI-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXTENDING ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY...AND
ONLY STARTING TO LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THOUGH.

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS...ALTHOUGH COULD
COME CLOSE TO 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE FRI/FRI EVE. AN
INCREASING E-NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN WITH
SCA CONDS EXPECTED BETWEEN FRI NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES THEREAFTER WITH SEAS DIMINISHING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE NJ. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT BASIN AVERAGED TOTALS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN LIGHT...AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PICCA
NEAR TERM...PICCA/MPS
SHORT TERM...PICCA
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...24/PICCA
HYDROLOGY...24/PICCA








000
FXUS61 KOKX 210141
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
941 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRY UP AS THEY APPROACH WESTERN ZONES. H5
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT CHANCE AS THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE SCATTERED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. EASTERN ZONES WILL DROP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ONGOING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN
BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...AS RIDGING NOSES IN ACROSS
OUR EASTERN SECTIONS. INCLUDED ISO THUNDER ACROSS THE APPROXIMATE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WHERE MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A LITTLE
MORE IN THE WAY OF MUCAPE. ADDITIONALLY...THESE AREAS WILL BE LESS
INFLUENCED BY THE MARITIME AIR BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO E/SE ONSHORE FLOW.

DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...WITH MANY AREAS
STAYING IN THE 70S / BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE FIRST WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING POKING
IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST WILL ALLOW MOST PLACES TO BE DRY LATER IN
THE DAY. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER
LOW TO THE NW OPENS AND APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF A STRONG BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH A DEEP TROUGH OUT WEST WITH AN UPPER LOW
CUTTING OFF OVER THE PAC NW AND AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER ERN CANADA WITH
A WEAK CUTOFF LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS AND TIMING OF VORT MAXES
MOVING AROUND THE LEFT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ONCE IT SLIDES
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GENERAL TREND APPEARS TO BE DECREASING CHC`S OF
SHOWERS DURING FRI AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST
FROM THE N. MAY NEED TO ADD SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AT TIMES THROUGH
SAT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. ADDITIONALLY...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FOR FRI AND
SAT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS A RESULT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE H5 FLOW AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO THE BLOCKING
PATTERN. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD DURING THIS
TIME WITH AN ELY FLOW EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO MON. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THIS TIME...BUT AS
HEIGHTS RISE TUE AND WED...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

VFR...EXCEPT TEMPO IFR VSBYS AT KGON LATE TONIGHT.

SCT -SHRA WITH NO REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CATEGORY WEST OF KISP-KBDR
FROM 03Z-05Z.

THURSDAY MORNING COULD START OFF WITH SOME CIGS AROUND 030...THESE
SHOULD RISE SLIGHTLY TO AT LEAST 035-040 BY AFTERNOON.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NGT...VFR. SCT TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE NY METRO.
.FRI-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXTENDING ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY...AND
ONLY STARTING TO LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THOUGH.

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS...ALTHOUGH COULD
COME CLOSE TO 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE FRI/FRI EVE. AN
INCREASING E-NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN WITH
SCA CONDS EXPECTED BETWEEN FRI NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES THEREAFTER WITH SEAS DIMINISHING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE NJ. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT BASIN AVERAGED TOTALS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN LIGHT...AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PICCA
NEAR TERM...PICCA/MPS
SHORT TERM...PICCA
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...24/PICCA
HYDROLOGY...24/PICCA









000
FXUS61 KBGM 202353
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
753 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. THIS LOW WILL PASS EAST, AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING WEATHER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS SLOW MOVING SHRA IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION THAT WERE
BACK BUILDING TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER, THE SHRA WERE BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORMISH IN NATURE AS THERE WAS LITTLE CAPE AROUND 200 TO 300
J/KG. THE CAPE WAS ALSO TALL AND SKINNY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
SINCE THE CAPE WAS NOT THAT HIGH THE ACVTY REALLY WASNT BLOSSOMING
ENUF FOR HEAVY RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE NO FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES PLANNED. WE ARE SEEING SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN
ISSUES IN A FEW PLACES AND HAVE COVERED WITH FLOOD ADVISORIES.
THESE SHRA WILL CONT TO WORK E AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROF THAT WAS SUPPORTG THE ABV MENTIONED ACVTY
EXTENDED FROM NEAR SSM SOUTHWARD TO THE ERN OHIO VALLEY. ALL THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THAT A FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH E INTO C
NY AND NRN PA FROM THE ERN OH VLLY AND WEAKEN BY 23 TO 00Z. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE ACVTY TO CONT TO WORK E INTO THIS EVENING. THEN
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY SEEN OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES AND WILL
EXTEND NW TO SE FROM THE ERN LAKES TO NJ BY 08Z TO 09Z AND
SUPPORT RENEWED SHRA AND POTENTIALLY A LITTLE THUNDER LATER
TONIGHT. AGAIN CAPES WILL BE LOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOOD ISSUES BUT POPS WILL BE HIGHER.

FOR THURSDAY...THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL SUPPORT MORE SHRA AND MORE
TSRA AS CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THU THAN TODAY. PLUS THERE
IS A LITTLE MORE SHEAR. BUT SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES ARE BELOW WHAT
WOULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER HISTORICALLY. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG WITH BULK WIND SHEARS BETWEEN 0
AND 6 KM ARND 20 KNOTS. AGAIN PWATS ARE ARND 1.5 INCHES AND
STORMS WON/T BE MOVING THAT FAST AS MBE VECTORS ARE SMALL SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND FILLS AS IT WORKS OVER NY AND PA. GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND A FAIRLY MOIST BNDRY
LAYER...I CAN SEE SOME ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A LITTLE THUNDER
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD WHERE DWPTS
WILL REMAIN HIGHER AND THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL CAPE INTO THE NIGHT. SFC
RDGING WAS BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM NEW ENGLAND AND BEGINS TO DRY
OUT OUR ERN ZONES FROM THE UPPER MOHAWK TO WRN CATSKILLS THU NGT.
HENCE POPS ARE HIGHER TO THE W OF I-81 AND LOWER TO THE E THU NGT.
THIS PATTERN OF INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS A WEAK
IMPULSE DROPS SEWRD. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHRA OR TSRA FRI SO I
HAVE POPS FRI FM SLGHT CHC TO CHC WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST.
SOME ACVTY CUD LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT SO HAVE KEPT SOME RESIDUAL POPS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY.

FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW ENGLAND AND WE
SHUD HAVE FAIR WEATHER WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
WPC GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WITH 588 DM
HEIGHTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS RIDGE WITH VERY
QUIET WEATHER. WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR
THE SURFACE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST,
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. EVENTUALLY THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MUCH, MUCH WARMER AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS DONE AT AVP AND SHOULD END IN NY BY 4Z. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS AND MAYBE BRIEF IFR VSBYS.
WITH THE SOUPY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA ALL NY SITES WILL FALL TO IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS BY 9Z AND NOT LIFT UNTIL 14 OR 15Z. CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TO 2 TO 4K FT BY 18Z WHEN SHOWERS START AGAIN. AT
AVP MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS 8 TO 15Z. LESS CHC OF SHOWERS THERE AGAIN
SO DID NOT INCLUDE ATTM.

LIGHT S TO SE OR CALM WINDS TONIGHT. THU S TO SW WINDS AT 4 TO 8
KTS.


OUTLOOK...

THU NGT TO FRI NGT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN
SHRA/TSRA. LATE THU NGT AND FRI NGT...IFR FOG AND STRATUS
POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY FOG AT KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 202353
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
753 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. THIS LOW WILL PASS EAST, AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING WEATHER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS SLOW MOVING SHRA IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION THAT WERE
BACK BUILDING TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER, THE SHRA WERE BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORMISH IN NATURE AS THERE WAS LITTLE CAPE AROUND 200 TO 300
J/KG. THE CAPE WAS ALSO TALL AND SKINNY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
SINCE THE CAPE WAS NOT THAT HIGH THE ACVTY REALLY WASNT BLOSSOMING
ENUF FOR HEAVY RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE NO FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES PLANNED. WE ARE SEEING SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN
ISSUES IN A FEW PLACES AND HAVE COVERED WITH FLOOD ADVISORIES.
THESE SHRA WILL CONT TO WORK E AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROF THAT WAS SUPPORTG THE ABV MENTIONED ACVTY
EXTENDED FROM NEAR SSM SOUTHWARD TO THE ERN OHIO VALLEY. ALL THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THAT A FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH E INTO C
NY AND NRN PA FROM THE ERN OH VLLY AND WEAKEN BY 23 TO 00Z. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE ACVTY TO CONT TO WORK E INTO THIS EVENING. THEN
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY SEEN OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES AND WILL
EXTEND NW TO SE FROM THE ERN LAKES TO NJ BY 08Z TO 09Z AND
SUPPORT RENEWED SHRA AND POTENTIALLY A LITTLE THUNDER LATER
TONIGHT. AGAIN CAPES WILL BE LOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOOD ISSUES BUT POPS WILL BE HIGHER.

FOR THURSDAY...THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL SUPPORT MORE SHRA AND MORE
TSRA AS CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THU THAN TODAY. PLUS THERE
IS A LITTLE MORE SHEAR. BUT SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES ARE BELOW WHAT
WOULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER HISTORICALLY. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG WITH BULK WIND SHEARS BETWEEN 0
AND 6 KM ARND 20 KNOTS. AGAIN PWATS ARE ARND 1.5 INCHES AND
STORMS WON/T BE MOVING THAT FAST AS MBE VECTORS ARE SMALL SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND FILLS AS IT WORKS OVER NY AND PA. GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND A FAIRLY MOIST BNDRY
LAYER...I CAN SEE SOME ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A LITTLE THUNDER
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD WHERE DWPTS
WILL REMAIN HIGHER AND THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL CAPE INTO THE NIGHT. SFC
RDGING WAS BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM NEW ENGLAND AND BEGINS TO DRY
OUT OUR ERN ZONES FROM THE UPPER MOHAWK TO WRN CATSKILLS THU NGT.
HENCE POPS ARE HIGHER TO THE W OF I-81 AND LOWER TO THE E THU NGT.
THIS PATTERN OF INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS A WEAK
IMPULSE DROPS SEWRD. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHRA OR TSRA FRI SO I
HAVE POPS FRI FM SLGHT CHC TO CHC WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST.
SOME ACVTY CUD LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT SO HAVE KEPT SOME RESIDUAL POPS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY.

FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW ENGLAND AND WE
SHUD HAVE FAIR WEATHER WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
WPC GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WITH 588 DM
HEIGHTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS RIDGE WITH VERY
QUIET WEATHER. WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR
THE SURFACE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST,
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. EVENTUALLY THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MUCH, MUCH WARMER AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS DONE AT AVP AND SHOULD END IN NY BY 4Z. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS AND MAYBE BRIEF IFR VSBYS.
WITH THE SOUPY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA ALL NY SITES WILL FALL TO IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS BY 9Z AND NOT LIFT UNTIL 14 OR 15Z. CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TO 2 TO 4K FT BY 18Z WHEN SHOWERS START AGAIN. AT
AVP MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS 8 TO 15Z. LESS CHC OF SHOWERS THERE AGAIN
SO DID NOT INCLUDE ATTM.

LIGHT S TO SE OR CALM WINDS TONIGHT. THU S TO SW WINDS AT 4 TO 8
KTS.


OUTLOOK...

THU NGT TO FRI NGT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN
SHRA/TSRA. LATE THU NGT AND FRI NGT...IFR FOG AND STRATUS
POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY FOG AT KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 202353
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
753 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. THIS LOW WILL PASS EAST, AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING WEATHER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS SLOW MOVING SHRA IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION THAT WERE
BACK BUILDING TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER, THE SHRA WERE BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORMISH IN NATURE AS THERE WAS LITTLE CAPE AROUND 200 TO 300
J/KG. THE CAPE WAS ALSO TALL AND SKINNY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
SINCE THE CAPE WAS NOT THAT HIGH THE ACVTY REALLY WASNT BLOSSOMING
ENUF FOR HEAVY RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE NO FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES PLANNED. WE ARE SEEING SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN
ISSUES IN A FEW PLACES AND HAVE COVERED WITH FLOOD ADVISORIES.
THESE SHRA WILL CONT TO WORK E AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROF THAT WAS SUPPORTG THE ABV MENTIONED ACVTY
EXTENDED FROM NEAR SSM SOUTHWARD TO THE ERN OHIO VALLEY. ALL THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THAT A FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH E INTO C
NY AND NRN PA FROM THE ERN OH VLLY AND WEAKEN BY 23 TO 00Z. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE ACVTY TO CONT TO WORK E INTO THIS EVENING. THEN
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY SEEN OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES AND WILL
EXTEND NW TO SE FROM THE ERN LAKES TO NJ BY 08Z TO 09Z AND
SUPPORT RENEWED SHRA AND POTENTIALLY A LITTLE THUNDER LATER
TONIGHT. AGAIN CAPES WILL BE LOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOOD ISSUES BUT POPS WILL BE HIGHER.

FOR THURSDAY...THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL SUPPORT MORE SHRA AND MORE
TSRA AS CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THU THAN TODAY. PLUS THERE
IS A LITTLE MORE SHEAR. BUT SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES ARE BELOW WHAT
WOULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER HISTORICALLY. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG WITH BULK WIND SHEARS BETWEEN 0
AND 6 KM ARND 20 KNOTS. AGAIN PWATS ARE ARND 1.5 INCHES AND
STORMS WON/T BE MOVING THAT FAST AS MBE VECTORS ARE SMALL SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND FILLS AS IT WORKS OVER NY AND PA. GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND A FAIRLY MOIST BNDRY
LAYER...I CAN SEE SOME ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A LITTLE THUNDER
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD WHERE DWPTS
WILL REMAIN HIGHER AND THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL CAPE INTO THE NIGHT. SFC
RDGING WAS BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM NEW ENGLAND AND BEGINS TO DRY
OUT OUR ERN ZONES FROM THE UPPER MOHAWK TO WRN CATSKILLS THU NGT.
HENCE POPS ARE HIGHER TO THE W OF I-81 AND LOWER TO THE E THU NGT.
THIS PATTERN OF INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS A WEAK
IMPULSE DROPS SEWRD. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHRA OR TSRA FRI SO I
HAVE POPS FRI FM SLGHT CHC TO CHC WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST.
SOME ACVTY CUD LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT SO HAVE KEPT SOME RESIDUAL POPS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY.

FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW ENGLAND AND WE
SHUD HAVE FAIR WEATHER WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
WPC GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WITH 588 DM
HEIGHTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS RIDGE WITH VERY
QUIET WEATHER. WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR
THE SURFACE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST,
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. EVENTUALLY THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MUCH, MUCH WARMER AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS DONE AT AVP AND SHOULD END IN NY BY 4Z. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS AND MAYBE BRIEF IFR VSBYS.
WITH THE SOUPY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA ALL NY SITES WILL FALL TO IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS BY 9Z AND NOT LIFT UNTIL 14 OR 15Z. CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TO 2 TO 4K FT BY 18Z WHEN SHOWERS START AGAIN. AT
AVP MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS 8 TO 15Z. LESS CHC OF SHOWERS THERE AGAIN
SO DID NOT INCLUDE ATTM.

LIGHT S TO SE OR CALM WINDS TONIGHT. THU S TO SW WINDS AT 4 TO 8
KTS.


OUTLOOK...

THU NGT TO FRI NGT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN
SHRA/TSRA. LATE THU NGT AND FRI NGT...IFR FOG AND STRATUS
POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY FOG AT KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 202353
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
753 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. THIS LOW WILL PASS EAST, AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING WEATHER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS SLOW MOVING SHRA IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION THAT WERE
BACK BUILDING TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER, THE SHRA WERE BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORMISH IN NATURE AS THERE WAS LITTLE CAPE AROUND 200 TO 300
J/KG. THE CAPE WAS ALSO TALL AND SKINNY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
SINCE THE CAPE WAS NOT THAT HIGH THE ACVTY REALLY WASNT BLOSSOMING
ENUF FOR HEAVY RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE NO FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES PLANNED. WE ARE SEEING SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN
ISSUES IN A FEW PLACES AND HAVE COVERED WITH FLOOD ADVISORIES.
THESE SHRA WILL CONT TO WORK E AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROF THAT WAS SUPPORTG THE ABV MENTIONED ACVTY
EXTENDED FROM NEAR SSM SOUTHWARD TO THE ERN OHIO VALLEY. ALL THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THAT A FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH E INTO C
NY AND NRN PA FROM THE ERN OH VLLY AND WEAKEN BY 23 TO 00Z. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE ACVTY TO CONT TO WORK E INTO THIS EVENING. THEN
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY SEEN OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES AND WILL
EXTEND NW TO SE FROM THE ERN LAKES TO NJ BY 08Z TO 09Z AND
SUPPORT RENEWED SHRA AND POTENTIALLY A LITTLE THUNDER LATER
TONIGHT. AGAIN CAPES WILL BE LOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOOD ISSUES BUT POPS WILL BE HIGHER.

FOR THURSDAY...THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL SUPPORT MORE SHRA AND MORE
TSRA AS CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THU THAN TODAY. PLUS THERE
IS A LITTLE MORE SHEAR. BUT SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES ARE BELOW WHAT
WOULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER HISTORICALLY. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG WITH BULK WIND SHEARS BETWEEN 0
AND 6 KM ARND 20 KNOTS. AGAIN PWATS ARE ARND 1.5 INCHES AND
STORMS WON/T BE MOVING THAT FAST AS MBE VECTORS ARE SMALL SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND FILLS AS IT WORKS OVER NY AND PA. GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND A FAIRLY MOIST BNDRY
LAYER...I CAN SEE SOME ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A LITTLE THUNDER
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD WHERE DWPTS
WILL REMAIN HIGHER AND THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL CAPE INTO THE NIGHT. SFC
RDGING WAS BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM NEW ENGLAND AND BEGINS TO DRY
OUT OUR ERN ZONES FROM THE UPPER MOHAWK TO WRN CATSKILLS THU NGT.
HENCE POPS ARE HIGHER TO THE W OF I-81 AND LOWER TO THE E THU NGT.
THIS PATTERN OF INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS A WEAK
IMPULSE DROPS SEWRD. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHRA OR TSRA FRI SO I
HAVE POPS FRI FM SLGHT CHC TO CHC WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST.
SOME ACVTY CUD LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT SO HAVE KEPT SOME RESIDUAL POPS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY.

FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW ENGLAND AND WE
SHUD HAVE FAIR WEATHER WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
WPC GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WITH 588 DM
HEIGHTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS RIDGE WITH VERY
QUIET WEATHER. WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR
THE SURFACE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST,
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. EVENTUALLY THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MUCH, MUCH WARMER AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS DONE AT AVP AND SHOULD END IN NY BY 4Z. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS AND MAYBE BRIEF IFR VSBYS.
WITH THE SOUPY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA ALL NY SITES WILL FALL TO IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS BY 9Z AND NOT LIFT UNTIL 14 OR 15Z. CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TO 2 TO 4K FT BY 18Z WHEN SHOWERS START AGAIN. AT
AVP MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS 8 TO 15Z. LESS CHC OF SHOWERS THERE AGAIN
SO DID NOT INCLUDE ATTM.

LIGHT S TO SE OR CALM WINDS TONIGHT. THU S TO SW WINDS AT 4 TO 8
KTS.


OUTLOOK...

THU NGT TO FRI NGT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN
SHRA/TSRA. LATE THU NGT AND FRI NGT...IFR FOG AND STRATUS
POSSIBLE.

SAT-MON...VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY FOG AT KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBTV 202350
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
750 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
VERMONT. DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THAT HIGH WILL STICK AROUND, GIVING
US A LONG STRING OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER THAT WILL LAST FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 742 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OVER ST LAWRENCE COUNTY...SLOW TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD...BUT KNOCKING ON FRANKLIN COUNTY`S DOOR AS OF
730 PM. WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY HAVE
LOWERED CHC OF TSTORMS TO ISOLATED/SCHC. RADAR SHOWING MOST AREAS
THAT HAVE RECEIVED PRECIP...GETTING ABOUT QUARTER TO HALF INCH
WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS A LITTLE OVER AN INCH. EXPECT PRECIP
PROGRESSION TO CONTINUE TO BE SLOW...WITH BTV12 AND BTV 4 MODELS
PERFORMING WELL. SO HAVE SLOWED PRECIP REACHING CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CPV TIL AFTER 06Z...IN MORE LINE WITH LOCAL MODELS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ACROSS VT. ONGOING LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL NY STATE. IT HAS BEEN VERY
SLOW TO MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY WITH LIGHT DEEP-LAYER WINDS
PRODUCING SLOW STORM MOTIONS /LESS THAN 20 KTS/. AIRMASS IS
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE FURTHER SOUTH...BUT LAPS CAPE VALUES RANGE
FROM NIL ACROSS VT TO AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE LOWER ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONSENSUS /HRRR...BTV-4
AND NMM-ARW/ LIFTS THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO NORTHERN
NY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL MENTION
THIS IN HWO. 1-/3-HR FFG IS RELATIVELY HIGH (ABOUT 2.5" NEEDED IN
3 HR PERIOD) SO NOT THINKING ANY FLASH FLOODING. PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RAIN SHIELD NEVER MAKES IT INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO CENTRAL
VERMONT. POPS RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE ACROSS VERMONT TO
LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

TEMPS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN VT WHERE
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK UNDER OVERCAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW OPENS
UP/WEAKENS AS IT PROGESSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN NY /LIKELY POPS/ ON THURSDAY...THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VT IS ON THURSDAY. AIRMASS STILL
IS FAIRLY MOIST WITH PWS AROUND 1.5" WITH 12Z NAM SHOWING CAPE
VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. THE THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY IS
LIMITED GIVEN EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO LOSING
BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING GIVEN WEAKENING UPPER LOW. THEREFORE I`VE
ONLY GONE WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY. DESPITE 850 TEMPS OF +11 TO
+13C...OVERCAST WILL ONLY KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. OVERALL
DECREASING TREND IN POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCE
PIVOTS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

LARGE GRADIENT IN STORM TOTAL QPF /SPANNING WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY/. AMOUNTS RANGE FROM NIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM...UNDER 0.5" FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...TO UP TO 1.25" FOR
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD
QUEBEC AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
TO AN OPEN WAVE. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
BUT SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL WIN OUT BY LATE IN THE
DAY INTO THE EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MORE BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO
TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...12Z GUIDANCE FROM GFS, GFS ENSEMBLES
AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY DARN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER
AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL PREVIOUS RUNS, THUS I WOULD RATE MY
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS ABOVE NORMAL. IN SUMMARY, LARGE
SCALE BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY, RESULTING IN DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK (SUMMER WILL HANG ON NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAKES THIS
FORECASTER PERSONALLY HAPPY). WITH THE CLOSENESS AMONG THE MODELS, I
SAW NO REASON TO SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATE FROM THE PURE BLEND BETWEEN
THEM ALL. HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA.
STILL SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT IN
GENERAL THE FORECAST IS A DRY ONE. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY NOSING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. LUCKILY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR WARMEST SO I DON`T EXPECT ANY
ISSUES WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AS WE WOULD SEE IN
THE SPRING OR EVEN EARLY SUMMER. HOWEVER IT WILL SET UP AN A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND WARMEST IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10-12C (EAST TO WEST), HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO UPPER 70S IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT.
VALLEY FOG WILL PROBABLY FORM AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...DITTO.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH ON TOP OF THE AREA
ALONG WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. NET RESULT: LOTS OF SUN AND VERY
LIGHT WINDS. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE 12-13C RANGE AND WITH
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING, WE SHOULD REALIZE THE FULL POTENTIAL OF WARMTH
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. MONDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...ALMOST IDENTICAL TO MONDAY, EXCEPT THE HIGH SINKS JUST A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. IN RESPONSE, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A DEGREE OR TWO
FROM MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP AROUND 12-14C, SO LOOK
FOR LOWER 80S TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. STILL DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND
A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PERHAPS AS LOW AS 7500FT SO ANY
DAYTIME CUMULUS THAT FORMS WILL BE VERY SHALLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS A REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH IS A REPEAT OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME. GFS & IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE STRONG, MEANING LOTS O` SUN. ECMWF FLATTENS
THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE
NORTH AND BRINGS IN SOME MOISTURE TO NORTHERN NY LATE IN THE DAY
SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ABOUT. WITH THE BLEND I USED, I
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION, BUT PAINTED IN SOME 10-20%
POPS IN NORTHERN NY. THE BASIC WORDED FORECAST WILL INDICATE A DRY
DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 14-16C OR SO, THUS EVEN MORE OF
THE AREA WILL BE POKING ABOVE THE 80F MARK -- WITH EVEN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY....OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS BUT AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z AND
THUS EXPECTING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE SHOWERS. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AND CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...00Z FRI TO 00Z SAT...AREAS
OF MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS.

00Z SAT ONWARD...VFR, EXCEPT IFR IN LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG
(PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...KGM/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 202344
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
744 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE MAJORITY
OF THOSE TWO DAYS WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED SHOWERS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 81. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE NOTED IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST IN THIS AREA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...MAINLY THIS EVENING. FARTHER WEST...ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FOUND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE OVERNIGHT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED...
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS.

THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...BROAD LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER
LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TO LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE
PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD INTO LAKE ONTARIO
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

TOGETHER...THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THEIR
NORTH AND EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY COMING THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE SUPPORTING
MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW. FOR OUR REGION...THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE FOUND FROM CENTRAL NY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHILE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MUCH MORE SCATTERED THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF WEAKER FORCING...AND
SOMEWHAT LESSER AMOUNTS OF DEEP MOISTURE.

WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...A MOIST AIRMASS...AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN RISK FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY IF CELLS CAN TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER A
PARTICULAR AREA. THAT SAID...THE RISK REMAINS MARGINAL AND VERY
ISOLATED SO NO FLOOD WATCHES ARE JUSTIFIED. AT THE SAME
TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY DUE TO THE ABOVE FACTORS.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...SKIES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL ALSO BE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING OF OUR WARM AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES WHERE APPRECIABLE RAIN FELL TODAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY LARGELY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. IT
WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW
TRAVERSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
SHIFTS TO THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS...WILL JUST STICK WITH LOWER-END
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO ENCROACH UPON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. THIS
MODERATING EFFECT WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTS WITH LOWS LARGELY
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT DURING
THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION. A
SURFACE HIGH SITTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A BROAD
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN BY FAR THROUGH 06Z WILL BE FOUND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ALONG A BAND OF
DEEP CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR VSBY WITH SOME IFR
VSBY IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG WITH SPOTTY MVFR CIGS. THIS
STEADIER RAIN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z WITH
IMPROVING VSBY...ALTHOUGH CIGS MAY REMAIN MVFR TO IFR ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN EVEN AFTER THE STEADIER SHOWERS EXIT.

FARTHER WEST ACROSS WEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ANY THUNDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WILL END BY MID EVENING. EXPECT CIGS/VSBY TO BE MAINLY
VFR THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. AFTER THAT...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES WHERE
APPRECIABLE RAIN FELL TODAY. A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN 09Z-12Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLS. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MVFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
POSSIBLY IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

IF THESE LOWER CIGS MATERIALIZE...THEY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO MAINLY VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN NY...AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE
IS FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EAST INTO LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THIS LOW TRACKS EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND
WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JJR







000
FXUS61 KBUF 202344
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
744 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE MAJORITY
OF THOSE TWO DAYS WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED SHOWERS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 81. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE NOTED IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST IN THIS AREA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...MAINLY THIS EVENING. FARTHER WEST...ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FOUND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE OVERNIGHT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED...
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS.

THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...BROAD LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER
LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TO LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE
PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD INTO LAKE ONTARIO
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

TOGETHER...THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THEIR
NORTH AND EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY COMING THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE SUPPORTING
MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW. FOR OUR REGION...THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE FOUND FROM CENTRAL NY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHILE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MUCH MORE SCATTERED THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF WEAKER FORCING...AND
SOMEWHAT LESSER AMOUNTS OF DEEP MOISTURE.

WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...A MOIST AIRMASS...AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN RISK FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY IF CELLS CAN TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER A
PARTICULAR AREA. THAT SAID...THE RISK REMAINS MARGINAL AND VERY
ISOLATED SO NO FLOOD WATCHES ARE JUSTIFIED. AT THE SAME
TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY DUE TO THE ABOVE FACTORS.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...SKIES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL ALSO BE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING OF OUR WARM AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES WHERE APPRECIABLE RAIN FELL TODAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY LARGELY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. IT
WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW
TRAVERSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
SHIFTS TO THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS...WILL JUST STICK WITH LOWER-END
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO ENCROACH UPON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. THIS
MODERATING EFFECT WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTS WITH LOWS LARGELY
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT DURING
THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION. A
SURFACE HIGH SITTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A BROAD
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN BY FAR THROUGH 06Z WILL BE FOUND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ALONG A BAND OF
DEEP CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR VSBY WITH SOME IFR
VSBY IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG WITH SPOTTY MVFR CIGS. THIS
STEADIER RAIN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z WITH
IMPROVING VSBY...ALTHOUGH CIGS MAY REMAIN MVFR TO IFR ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN EVEN AFTER THE STEADIER SHOWERS EXIT.

FARTHER WEST ACROSS WEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ANY THUNDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WILL END BY MID EVENING. EXPECT CIGS/VSBY TO BE MAINLY
VFR THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. AFTER THAT...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES WHERE
APPRECIABLE RAIN FELL TODAY. A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN 09Z-12Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLS. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MVFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
POSSIBLY IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

IF THESE LOWER CIGS MATERIALIZE...THEY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO MAINLY VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN NY...AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE
IS FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EAST INTO LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THIS LOW TRACKS EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND
WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBTV 202342
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
VERMONT. DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THAT HIGH WILL STICK AROUND, GIVING
US A LONG STRING OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER THAT WILL LAST FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 742 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OVER ST LAWRENCE COUNTY...SLOW TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD...BUT KNOCKING ON FRANKLIN COUNTY`S DOOR AS OF
730 PM. WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY HAVE
LOWERED CHC OF TSTORMS TO ISOLATED/SCHC. RADAR SHOWING MOST AREAS
THAT HAVE RECEIVED PRECIP...GETTING ABOUT QUARTER TO HALF INCH
WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS A LITTLE OVER AN INCH. EXPECT PRECIP
PROGRESSION TO CONTINUE TO BE SLOW...WITH BTV12 AND BTV 4 MODELS
PERFORMING WELL. SO HAVE SLOWED PRECIP REACHING CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CPV TIL AFTER 06Z...IN MORE LINE WITH LOCAL MODELS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ACROSS VT. ONGOING LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL NY STATE. IT HAS BEEN VERY
SLOW TO MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY WITH LIGHT DEEP-LAYER WINDS
PRODUCING SLOW STORM MOTIONS /LESS THAN 20 KTS/. AIRMASS IS
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE FURTHER SOUTH...BUT LAPS CAPE VALUES RANGE
FROM NIL ACROSS VT TO AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE LOWER ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONSENSUS /HRRR...BTV-4
AND NMM-ARW/ LIFTS THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO NORTHERN
NY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL MENTION
THIS IN HWO. 1-/3-HR FFG IS RELATIVELY HIGH (ABOUT 2.5" NEEDED IN
3 HR PERIOD) SO NOT THINKING ANY FLASH FLOODING. PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RAIN SHIELD NEVER MAKES IT INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO CENTRAL
VERMONT. POPS RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE ACROSS VERMONT TO
LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

TEMPS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN VT WHERE
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK UNDER OVERCAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW OPENS
UP/WEAKENS AS IT PROGESSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN NY /LIKELY POPS/ ON THURSDAY...THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VT IS ON THURSDAY. AIRMASS STILL
IS FAIRLY MOIST WITH PWS AROUND 1.5" WITH 12Z NAM SHOWING CAPE
VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. THE THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY IS
LIMITED GIVEN EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO LOSING
BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING GIVEN WEAKENING UPPER LOW. THEREFORE I`VE
ONLY GONE WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY. DESPITE 850 TEMPS OF +11 TO
+13C...OVERCAST WILL ONLY KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. OVERALL
DECREASING TREND IN POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCE
PIVOTS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

LARGE GRADIENT IN STORM TOTAL QPF /SPANNING WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY/. AMOUNTS RANGE FROM NIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM...UNDER 0.5" FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...TO UP TO 1.25" FOR
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD
QUEBEC AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
TO AN OPEN WAVE. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
BUT SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL WIN OUT BY LATE IN THE
DAY INTO THE EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MORE BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO
TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...12Z GUIDANCE FROM GFS, GFS ENSEMBLES
AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY DARN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER
AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL PREVIOUS RUNS, THUS I WOULD RATE MY
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS ABOVE NORMAL. IN SUMMARY, LARGE
SCALE BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY, RESULTING IN DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK (SUMMER WILL HANG ON NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAKES THIS
FORECASTER PERSONALLY HAPPY). WITH THE CLOSENESS AMONG THE MODELS, I
SAW NO REASON TO SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATE FROM THE PURE BLEND BETWEEN
THEM ALL. HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA.
STILL SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT IN
GENERAL THE FORECAST IS A DRY ONE. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY NOSING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. LUCKILY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR WARMEST SO I DON`T EXPECT ANY
ISSUES WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AS WE WOULD SEE IN
THE SPRING OR EVEN EARLY SUMMER. HOWEVER IT WILL SET UP AN A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND WARMEST IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10-12C (EAST TO WEST), HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO UPPER 70S IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT.
VALLEY FOG WILL PROBABLY FORM AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS
GENERALL IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...DITTO.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH ON TOP OF THE AREA
ALONG WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. NET RESULT: LOTS OF SUN AND VERY
LIGHT WINDS. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE 12-13C RANGE AND WITH
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING, WE SHOULD REALIZE THE FULL POTENTIAL OF WARMTH
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. MONDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...ALMOST IDENTICAL TO MONDAY, EXCEPT THE HIGH SINKS JUST A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. IN RESPONSE, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A DEGREE OR TWO
FROM MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP AROUND 12-14C, SO LOOK
FOR LOWER 80S TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. STILL DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND
A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PERHAPS AS LOW AS 7500FT SO ANY
DAYTIME CUMULUS THAT FORMS WILL BE VERY SHALLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS A REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH IS A REPEAT OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME. GFS & IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE STRONG, MEANING LOTS O` SUN. ECMWF FLATTENS
THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE
NORTH AND BRINGS IN SOME MOISTURE TO NORTHERN NY LATE IN THE DAY
SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ABOUT. WITH THE BLEND I USED, I
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION, BUT PAINTED IN SOME 10-20%
POPS IN NORTHERN NY. THE BASIC WORDED FORECAST WILL INDICATE A DRY
DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 14-16C OR SO, THUS EVEN MORE OF
THE AREA WILL BE POKING ABOVE THE 80F MARK -- WITH EVEN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY....CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME
HEATING CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD BE FORMING
SOON (SO HAVE COVERED SLK WITH VCSH THE NEXT FEW HOURS). WATCHING
SLOW MOVING AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND AFFECT TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KMSS & KSLK. HARD TO
SPECIFICALLY PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE AT EXACT
TIMES, SO IN GENERAL THE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SPECIFICS IN
THE FORECAST IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT. HAVE INCLUDED THE VCSH/VCTS.
TOOK A STAB AT A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
OCCURRING AFTER 00Z FOR THE NORTHERN NEW YORK LOCATIONS WITH
PREDOMINANTE -SHRA IN THE TAFS. FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST, THE SHOWERS WON`T BE GETTING EVEN CLOSE ENOUGH UNTIL
WELL AFTER 00Z AND PROBABLY WON`T BE AS CONCENTRATED. THUS VCSH
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AGAIN HITS MONTPELIER
(MPV) HARD WITH LIFR CONDITIONS IN BOTH CEILING AND VISIBILITY
WITH DENSE FOG. THINK IT WILL BE MORE STRATUS AND LESS FOG
TONIGHT, BUT THE END RESULT COULD BE THE SAME WITH A CLOUD DECK
JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE GROUND. FOR THURSDAY, THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW OFF TO OUR WEST WILL
BE MORE OR LESS OVER THE AREA. KEPT IT VFR FOR VERMONT SIDE,
THOUGH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY BE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THUR TO 00Z SAT...AREAS OF MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS.

00Z SAT ONWARD...VFR, EXCEPT IFR IN LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG
(PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...KGM/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 202342
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
VERMONT. DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THAT HIGH WILL STICK AROUND, GIVING
US A LONG STRING OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER THAT WILL LAST FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 742 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OVER ST LAWRENCE COUNTY...SLOW TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD...BUT KNOCKING ON FRANKLIN COUNTY`S DOOR AS OF
730 PM. WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY HAVE
LOWERED CHC OF TSTORMS TO ISOLATED/SCHC. RADAR SHOWING MOST AREAS
THAT HAVE RECEIVED PRECIP...GETTING ABOUT QUARTER TO HALF INCH
WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS A LITTLE OVER AN INCH. EXPECT PRECIP
PROGRESSION TO CONTINUE TO BE SLOW...WITH BTV12 AND BTV 4 MODELS
PERFORMING WELL. SO HAVE SLOWED PRECIP REACHING CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CPV TIL AFTER 06Z...IN MORE LINE WITH LOCAL MODELS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ACROSS VT. ONGOING LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL NY STATE. IT HAS BEEN VERY
SLOW TO MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY WITH LIGHT DEEP-LAYER WINDS
PRODUCING SLOW STORM MOTIONS /LESS THAN 20 KTS/. AIRMASS IS
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE FURTHER SOUTH...BUT LAPS CAPE VALUES RANGE
FROM NIL ACROSS VT TO AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE LOWER ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONSENSUS /HRRR...BTV-4
AND NMM-ARW/ LIFTS THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO NORTHERN
NY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL MENTION
THIS IN HWO. 1-/3-HR FFG IS RELATIVELY HIGH (ABOUT 2.5" NEEDED IN
3 HR PERIOD) SO NOT THINKING ANY FLASH FLOODING. PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RAIN SHIELD NEVER MAKES IT INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO CENTRAL
VERMONT. POPS RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE ACROSS VERMONT TO
LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

TEMPS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN VT WHERE
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK UNDER OVERCAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW OPENS
UP/WEAKENS AS IT PROGESSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN NY /LIKELY POPS/ ON THURSDAY...THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VT IS ON THURSDAY. AIRMASS STILL
IS FAIRLY MOIST WITH PWS AROUND 1.5" WITH 12Z NAM SHOWING CAPE
VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. THE THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY IS
LIMITED GIVEN EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO LOSING
BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING GIVEN WEAKENING UPPER LOW. THEREFORE I`VE
ONLY GONE WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY. DESPITE 850 TEMPS OF +11 TO
+13C...OVERCAST WILL ONLY KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. OVERALL
DECREASING TREND IN POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCE
PIVOTS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

LARGE GRADIENT IN STORM TOTAL QPF /SPANNING WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY/. AMOUNTS RANGE FROM NIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM...UNDER 0.5" FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...TO UP TO 1.25" FOR
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD
QUEBEC AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
TO AN OPEN WAVE. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
BUT SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL WIN OUT BY LATE IN THE
DAY INTO THE EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MORE BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO
TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...12Z GUIDANCE FROM GFS, GFS ENSEMBLES
AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY DARN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER
AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL PREVIOUS RUNS, THUS I WOULD RATE MY
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS ABOVE NORMAL. IN SUMMARY, LARGE
SCALE BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY, RESULTING IN DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK (SUMMER WILL HANG ON NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAKES THIS
FORECASTER PERSONALLY HAPPY). WITH THE CLOSENESS AMONG THE MODELS, I
SAW NO REASON TO SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATE FROM THE PURE BLEND BETWEEN
THEM ALL. HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA.
STILL SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT IN
GENERAL THE FORECAST IS A DRY ONE. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY NOSING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. LUCKILY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR WARMEST SO I DON`T EXPECT ANY
ISSUES WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AS WE WOULD SEE IN
THE SPRING OR EVEN EARLY SUMMER. HOWEVER IT WILL SET UP AN A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND WARMEST IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10-12C (EAST TO WEST), HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO UPPER 70S IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT.
VALLEY FOG WILL PROBABLY FORM AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS
GENERALL IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...DITTO.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH ON TOP OF THE AREA
ALONG WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. NET RESULT: LOTS OF SUN AND VERY
LIGHT WINDS. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE 12-13C RANGE AND WITH
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING, WE SHOULD REALIZE THE FULL POTENTIAL OF WARMTH
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. MONDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...ALMOST IDENTICAL TO MONDAY, EXCEPT THE HIGH SINKS JUST A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. IN RESPONSE, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A DEGREE OR TWO
FROM MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP AROUND 12-14C, SO LOOK
FOR LOWER 80S TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. STILL DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND
A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PERHAPS AS LOW AS 7500FT SO ANY
DAYTIME CUMULUS THAT FORMS WILL BE VERY SHALLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS A REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH IS A REPEAT OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME. GFS & IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE STRONG, MEANING LOTS O` SUN. ECMWF FLATTENS
THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE
NORTH AND BRINGS IN SOME MOISTURE TO NORTHERN NY LATE IN THE DAY
SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ABOUT. WITH THE BLEND I USED, I
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION, BUT PAINTED IN SOME 10-20%
POPS IN NORTHERN NY. THE BASIC WORDED FORECAST WILL INDICATE A DRY
DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 14-16C OR SO, THUS EVEN MORE OF
THE AREA WILL BE POKING ABOVE THE 80F MARK -- WITH EVEN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY....CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME
HEATING CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD BE FORMING
SOON (SO HAVE COVERED SLK WITH VCSH THE NEXT FEW HOURS). WATCHING
SLOW MOVING AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND AFFECT TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KMSS & KSLK. HARD TO
SPECIFICALLY PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE AT EXACT
TIMES, SO IN GENERAL THE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SPECIFICS IN
THE FORECAST IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT. HAVE INCLUDED THE VCSH/VCTS.
TOOK A STAB AT A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
OCCURRING AFTER 00Z FOR THE NORTHERN NEW YORK LOCATIONS WITH
PREDOMINANTE -SHRA IN THE TAFS. FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST, THE SHOWERS WON`T BE GETTING EVEN CLOSE ENOUGH UNTIL
WELL AFTER 00Z AND PROBABLY WON`T BE AS CONCENTRATED. THUS VCSH
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AGAIN HITS MONTPELIER
(MPV) HARD WITH LIFR CONDITIONS IN BOTH CEILING AND VISIBILITY
WITH DENSE FOG. THINK IT WILL BE MORE STRATUS AND LESS FOG
TONIGHT, BUT THE END RESULT COULD BE THE SAME WITH A CLOUD DECK
JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE GROUND. FOR THURSDAY, THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW OFF TO OUR WEST WILL
BE MORE OR LESS OVER THE AREA. KEPT IT VFR FOR VERMONT SIDE,
THOUGH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY BE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THUR TO 00Z SAT...AREAS OF MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS.

00Z SAT ONWARD...VFR, EXCEPT IFR IN LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG
(PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...KGM/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH







000
FXUS61 KALY 202328
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
728 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILERS IN. THIS
WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT
ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650PM EDT..A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...AND WILL BE SPREADING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MONTGOMERY/FULTON AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE HAS RESULTED IN RADAR EST QPF OF 1-1.8
INCHES LOCALLY...AND HAS PROMPTED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR S HERK CO.
ELSEWHERE SKIES REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATED 1000-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE
JUST AHEAD OF THIS LINE. WHILE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN DIM ACTIVITY...THIS CAPE WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY GOING SVRL MORE HOURS. HAVE INCR
POPS IN W PORTIONS OF FCA AND ADJUSTED TIMING.

MEANWHILE...THE DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...WAS STILL TO OUR WEST.

THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF LULL DURING THE LATE EVENING BEFORE MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WORK FROM THE WEST ARRIVE LATER OVERNIGHT. THESE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE NOSE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET...AND TONGUE OF PWAT AIR AROUND 1.5 INCHES MOVING...INTO
OUR WESTERN AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN PAST NIGHTS...GENERALLY LOWS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST FORCING LOOKING TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. RAIN COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...BUT RIGHT NOW NOT ENOUGH SIGNALS TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
THE GRIDS. WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS
(OROGRAPHICS WILL LIKELY ASSIST WITH ASCENT THERE)...LIKELY POPS
MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT CHANCE POPS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE
FORCING AND PWATS LOOKS LOWER.

WE ARE NOT NECESSARILY EXPECTED A COMPLETE WASHOUT ON THURSDAY...BUT
IT WILL BE DAMP AND GRAY WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME.

DUE TO THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY TOP IN
THE 70S...BUT IT WILL BE HUMID. IF WE WERE TO GET MORE BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...INSTABILITY (WHICH WE EXPECT TO BE LIMITED) WOULD
INCREASE. FOR NOW...JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...(WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK) BUT AGAIN MORE
SUNSHINE COULD MEAN TALLER THUNDER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ACTUAL OCCLUDE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND (LOWER CHANCES AGAIN SOUTH). TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL A LITTLE MORE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST...TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OPENS AND MOVES TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER...INITIALLY THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
LOW SO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND OR POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR
THIS DAY...CARRIED LOW POPS (30) FOR ELEVATIONS 1000 FEET OR
HIGHER...SLIGHT POPS (20) FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DUE TO THE CLOUDS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...LEANED WITH THE (BUT
NOT ALL THE WAY) THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. WE LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 ON FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN REMAINING IN THE 60S ALL DAY LONG.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES BUT WE WILL LIKELY GET UNDER AN
INVERSION WHICH COULD KEEP CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE PATCHY AROUND
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE NO MENTION OF DRIZZLE RIGHT NOW
BUT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DIP BACK MAINLY INTO
THE 50S...LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...UPPER 50S FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

BY SATURDAY...RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
AND LOOKS TO SCOUR AT LEAST SOME OF THE CLOUDS AWAY. A STRAY
AFTERNOON POP UP SHOWER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BUT FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT...THE THREAT OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM THE COLUMN UP A LITTLE. H850 TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND +12C WHICH WITH NORMAL MIXING...WOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST. A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A MORE DOMINANT PRESENCE AS
WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ORIENTATION AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SW TO NE RIGHT OVER OUR AREA WILL PROVIDE CONTINUAL TRANQUIL
WEATHER OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALSO FAVORS LARGE
SCALE SFC DIVERGENCE AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN 80-90 KT JET AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 20/12Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
PAST THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AS TIME GETS CLOSER TO MID NEXT WEEK.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL
SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE APEX OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF OUR REGION AS WE GO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES AS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAINS MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS WE GO INTO 04-06Z THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
FILL INTO ALL TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES AS INITIAL RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS APPROACH THE REGION.
AS WE APPROACH 12Z THURSDAY...ALL SITES WILL BE MVFR/IFR AS THE MORE
STEADIER LIGHT RAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AT
KGFL/KALB/KPSF. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN WILL BE SLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MVFR AND AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO
AROUND 5-8 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS WE GO TOWARD DAYBREAK PAST
12Z.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD
INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SCATTERED SOUTH OF ALBANY. WE ASSIGNED A "WET
FLAG" TO ALL THE NFDRS EXCEPT STONYKILL. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. THERE COULD BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL CONTAINING LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WHICH COULD LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
SHOULD RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY...CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTH 5-10 MPH ON THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION BRINGING
PWAT AIR OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. DUE TO LOW
RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WELL
OVER AN INCH. THIS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHTER AS THE PWAT VALUES WILL DROP BACK DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/SNYDER/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 202328
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
728 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILERS IN. THIS
WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT
ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650PM EDT..A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...AND WILL BE SPREADING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MONTGOMERY/FULTON AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE HAS RESULTED IN RADAR EST QPF OF 1-1.8
INCHES LOCALLY...AND HAS PROMPTED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR S HERK CO.
ELSEWHERE SKIES REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATED 1000-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE
JUST AHEAD OF THIS LINE. WHILE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN DIM ACTIVITY...THIS CAPE WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY GOING SVRL MORE HOURS. HAVE INCR
POPS IN W PORTIONS OF FCA AND ADJUSTED TIMING.

MEANWHILE...THE DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...WAS STILL TO OUR WEST.

THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF LULL DURING THE LATE EVENING BEFORE MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WORK FROM THE WEST ARRIVE LATER OVERNIGHT. THESE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE NOSE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET...AND TONGUE OF PWAT AIR AROUND 1.5 INCHES MOVING...INTO
OUR WESTERN AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN PAST NIGHTS...GENERALLY LOWS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST FORCING LOOKING TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. RAIN COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...BUT RIGHT NOW NOT ENOUGH SIGNALS TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
THE GRIDS. WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS
(OROGRAPHICS WILL LIKELY ASSIST WITH ASCENT THERE)...LIKELY POPS
MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT CHANCE POPS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE
FORCING AND PWATS LOOKS LOWER.

WE ARE NOT NECESSARILY EXPECTED A COMPLETE WASHOUT ON THURSDAY...BUT
IT WILL BE DAMP AND GRAY WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME.

DUE TO THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY TOP IN
THE 70S...BUT IT WILL BE HUMID. IF WE WERE TO GET MORE BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...INSTABILITY (WHICH WE EXPECT TO BE LIMITED) WOULD
INCREASE. FOR NOW...JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...(WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK) BUT AGAIN MORE
SUNSHINE COULD MEAN TALLER THUNDER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ACTUAL OCCLUDE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND (LOWER CHANCES AGAIN SOUTH). TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL A LITTLE MORE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST...TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OPENS AND MOVES TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER...INITIALLY THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
LOW SO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND OR POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR
THIS DAY...CARRIED LOW POPS (30) FOR ELEVATIONS 1000 FEET OR
HIGHER...SLIGHT POPS (20) FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DUE TO THE CLOUDS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...LEANED WITH THE (BUT
NOT ALL THE WAY) THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. WE LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 ON FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN REMAINING IN THE 60S ALL DAY LONG.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES BUT WE WILL LIKELY GET UNDER AN
INVERSION WHICH COULD KEEP CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE PATCHY AROUND
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE NO MENTION OF DRIZZLE RIGHT NOW
BUT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DIP BACK MAINLY INTO
THE 50S...LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...UPPER 50S FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

BY SATURDAY...RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
AND LOOKS TO SCOUR AT LEAST SOME OF THE CLOUDS AWAY. A STRAY
AFTERNOON POP UP SHOWER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BUT FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT...THE THREAT OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM THE COLUMN UP A LITTLE. H850 TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND +12C WHICH WITH NORMAL MIXING...WOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST. A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A MORE DOMINANT PRESENCE AS
WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ORIENTATION AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SW TO NE RIGHT OVER OUR AREA WILL PROVIDE CONTINUAL TRANQUIL
WEATHER OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALSO FAVORS LARGE
SCALE SFC DIVERGENCE AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN 80-90 KT JET AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 20/12Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
PAST THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AS TIME GETS CLOSER TO MID NEXT WEEK.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL
SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE APEX OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF OUR REGION AS WE GO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES AS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAINS MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS WE GO INTO 04-06Z THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
FILL INTO ALL TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES AS INITIAL RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS APPROACH THE REGION.
AS WE APPROACH 12Z THURSDAY...ALL SITES WILL BE MVFR/IFR AS THE MORE
STEADIER LIGHT RAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AT
KGFL/KALB/KPSF. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN WILL BE SLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MVFR AND AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO
AROUND 5-8 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS WE GO TOWARD DAYBREAK PAST
12Z.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD
INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SCATTERED SOUTH OF ALBANY. WE ASSIGNED A "WET
FLAG" TO ALL THE NFDRS EXCEPT STONYKILL. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. THERE COULD BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL CONTAINING LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WHICH COULD LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
SHOULD RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY...CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTH 5-10 MPH ON THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION BRINGING
PWAT AIR OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. DUE TO LOW
RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WELL
OVER AN INCH. THIS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHTER AS THE PWAT VALUES WILL DROP BACK DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/SNYDER/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 202323
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
723 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SOME SHOWERS APPROACHING WESTERN
ZONES...BUT WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE...MOST OF THE
SHOWERS ARE DRYING UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER N MICHIGAN OPENS UP AND SLIDES TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND IT WILL INFLUENCE THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW
ZONES...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS MORNING. WITH A
SURFACE HIGH NOSING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...DRIER AIR WILL BE
PRESENT BENEATH H9 OR SO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT IN MOST
AREAS...AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER REDUCES THE ABILITY FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. GENERALLY USED A MAV/MET/ECS BLEND AS THERE WAS
GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ONGOING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN
BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...AS RIDGING NOSES IN ACROSS
OUR EASTERN SECTIONS. INCLUDED ISO THUNDER ACROSS THE APPROXIMATE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WHERE MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A LITTLE
MORE IN THE WAY OF MUCAPE. ADDITIONALLY...THESE AREAS WILL BE LESS
INFLUENCED BY THE MARITIME AIR BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO E/SE ONSHORE FLOW.

DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...WITH MANY AREAS
STAYING IN THE 70S / BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE FIRST WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING POKING
IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST WILL ALLOW MOST PLACES TO BE DRY LATER IN
THE DAY. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER
LOW TO THE NW OPENS AND APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF A STRONG BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH A DEEP TROUGH OUT WEST WITH AN UPPER LOW
CUTTING OFF OVER THE PAC NW AND AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER ERN CANADA WITH
A WEAK CUTOFF LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS AND TIMING OF VORT MAXES
MOVING AROUND THE LEFT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ONCE IT SLIDES
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GENERAL TREND APPEARS TO BE DECREASING CHC`S OF
SHOWERS DURING FRI AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST
FROM THE N. MAY NEED TO ADD SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AT TIMES THROUGH
SAT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. ADDITIONALLY...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FOR FRI AND
SAT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS A RESULT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE H5 FLOW AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO THE BLOCKING
PATTERN. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD DURING THIS
TIME WITH AN ELY FLOW EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO MON. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THIS TIME...BUT AS
HEIGHTS RISE TUE AND WED...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

VFR...EXCEPT TEMPO IFR VSBYS AT KGON LATE TONIGHT.

SCT -SHRA WITH NO REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CATEGORY WEST OF KISP-KBDR
FROM 03Z-05Z.

THURSDAY MORNING COULD START OFF WITH SOME CIGS AROUND 030...THESE
SHOULD RISE SLIGHTLY TO AT LEAST 035-040 BY AFTERNOON.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NGT...VFR. SCT TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE NY METRO.
.FRI-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXTENDING ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY...AND
ONLY STARTING TO LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THOUGH.

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS...ALTHOUGH COULD
COME CLOSE TO 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE FRI/FRI EVE. AN
INCREASING E-NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN WITH
SCA CONDS EXPECTED BETWEEN FRI NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES THEREAFTER WITH SEAS DIMINISHING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE NJ. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT BASIN AVERAGED TOTALS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN LIGHT...AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PICCA
NEAR TERM...PICCA/MPS
SHORT TERM...PICCA
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...24/PICCA
HYDROLOGY...24/PICCA








000
FXUS61 KOKX 202323
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
723 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SOME SHOWERS APPROACHING WESTERN
ZONES...BUT WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE...MOST OF THE
SHOWERS ARE DRYING UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER N MICHIGAN OPENS UP AND SLIDES TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND IT WILL INFLUENCE THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW
ZONES...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS MORNING. WITH A
SURFACE HIGH NOSING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...DRIER AIR WILL BE
PRESENT BENEATH H9 OR SO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT IN MOST
AREAS...AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER REDUCES THE ABILITY FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. GENERALLY USED A MAV/MET/ECS BLEND AS THERE WAS
GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ONGOING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN
BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...AS RIDGING NOSES IN ACROSS
OUR EASTERN SECTIONS. INCLUDED ISO THUNDER ACROSS THE APPROXIMATE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WHERE MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A LITTLE
MORE IN THE WAY OF MUCAPE. ADDITIONALLY...THESE AREAS WILL BE LESS
INFLUENCED BY THE MARITIME AIR BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO E/SE ONSHORE FLOW.

DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...WITH MANY AREAS
STAYING IN THE 70S / BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE FIRST WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING POKING
IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST WILL ALLOW MOST PLACES TO BE DRY LATER IN
THE DAY. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER
LOW TO THE NW OPENS AND APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF A STRONG BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH A DEEP TROUGH OUT WEST WITH AN UPPER LOW
CUTTING OFF OVER THE PAC NW AND AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER ERN CANADA WITH
A WEAK CUTOFF LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS AND TIMING OF VORT MAXES
MOVING AROUND THE LEFT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ONCE IT SLIDES
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GENERAL TREND APPEARS TO BE DECREASING CHC`S OF
SHOWERS DURING FRI AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST
FROM THE N. MAY NEED TO ADD SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AT TIMES THROUGH
SAT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. ADDITIONALLY...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FOR FRI AND
SAT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS A RESULT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE H5 FLOW AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO THE BLOCKING
PATTERN. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD DURING THIS
TIME WITH AN ELY FLOW EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO MON. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THIS TIME...BUT AS
HEIGHTS RISE TUE AND WED...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

VFR...EXCEPT TEMPO IFR VSBYS AT KGON LATE TONIGHT.

SCT -SHRA WITH NO REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CATEGORY WEST OF KISP-KBDR
FROM 03Z-05Z.

THURSDAY MORNING COULD START OFF WITH SOME CIGS AROUND 030...THESE
SHOULD RISE SLIGHTLY TO AT LEAST 035-040 BY AFTERNOON.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NGT...VFR. SCT TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE NY METRO.
.FRI-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXTENDING ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY...AND
ONLY STARTING TO LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THOUGH.

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS...ALTHOUGH COULD
COME CLOSE TO 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE FRI/FRI EVE. AN
INCREASING E-NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN WITH
SCA CONDS EXPECTED BETWEEN FRI NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES THEREAFTER WITH SEAS DIMINISHING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE NJ. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT BASIN AVERAGED TOTALS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN LIGHT...AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PICCA
NEAR TERM...PICCA/MPS
SHORT TERM...PICCA
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...24/PICCA
HYDROLOGY...24/PICCA









000
FXUS61 KALY 202300
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
700 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILERS IN. THIS
WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT
ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650PM EDT..A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...AND WILL BE SPREADING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MONTGOMERY/FULTON AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE HAS RESULTED IN RADAR EST QPF OF 1-1.8
INCHES LOCALLY...AND HAS PROMPTED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR S HERK CO.
ELSEWHERE SKIES REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATED 1000-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE
JUST AHEAD OF THIS LINE. WHILE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN DIM ACTIVITY...THIS CAPE WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY GOING SVRL MORE HOURS. HAVE INCR
POPS IN W PORTIONS OF FCA AND ADJUSTED TIMING.

MEANWHILE...THE DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...WAS STILL TO OUR WEST.

THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF LULL DURING THE LATE EVENING BEFORE MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WORK FROM THE WEST ARRIVE LATER OVERNIGHT. THESE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE NOSE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET...AND TONGUE OF PWAT AIR AROUND 1.5 INCHES MOVING...INTO
OUR WESTERN AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN PAST NIGHTS...GENERALLY LOWS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST FORCING LOOKING TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. RAIN COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...BUT RIGHT NOW NOT ENOUGH SIGNALS TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
THE GRIDS. WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS
(OROGRAPHICS WILL LIKELY ASSIST WITH ASCENT THERE)...LIKELY POPS
MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT CHANCE POPS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE
FORCING AND PWATS LOOKS LOWER.

WE ARE NOT NECESSARILY EXPECTED A COMPLETE WASHOUT ON THURSDAY...BUT
IT WILL BE DAMP AND GRAY WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME.

DUE TO THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY TOP IN
THE 70S...BUT IT WILL BE HUMID. IF WE WERE TO GET MORE BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...INSTABILITY (WHICH WE EXPECT TO BE LIMITED) WOULD
INCREASE. FOR NOW...JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...(WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK) BUT AGAIN MORE
SUNSHINE COULD MEAN TALLER THUNDER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ACTUAL OCCLUDE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND (LOWER CHANCES AGAIN SOUTH). TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL A LITTLE MORE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST...TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OPENS AND MOVES TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER...INITIALLY THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
LOW SO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND OR POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR
THIS DAY...CARRIED LOW POPS (30) FOR ELEVATIONS 1000 FEET OR
HIGHER...SLIGHT POPS (20) FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DUE TO THE CLOUDS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...LEANED WITH THE (BUT
NOT ALL THE WAY) THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. WE LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 ON FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN REMAINING IN THE 60S ALL DAY LONG.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES BUT WE WILL LIKELY GET UNDER AN
INVERSION WHICH COULD KEEP CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE PATCHY AROUND
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE NO MENTION OF DRIZZLE RIGHT NOW
BUT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DIP BACK MAINLY INTO
THE 50S...LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...UPPER 50S FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

BY SATURDAY...RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
AND LOOKS TO SCOUR AT LEAST SOME OF THE CLOUDS AWAY. A STRAY
AFTERNOON POP UP SHOWER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BUT FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT...THE THREAT OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM THE COLUMN UP A LITTLE. H850 TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND +12C WHICH WITH NORMAL MIXING...WOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST. A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A MORE DOMINANT PRESENCE AS
WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ORIENTATION AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SW TO NE RIGHT OVER OUR AREA WILL PROVIDE CONTINUAL TRANQUIL
WEATHER OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALSO FAVORS LARGE
SCALE SFC DIVERGENCE AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN 80-90 KT JET AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 20/12Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
PAST THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AS TIME GETS CLOSER TO MID NEXT WEEK.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL
SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE APEX OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF OUR REGION AS WE GO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT IS APPROACHING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SCATTERED/BROKEN CUMULUS ABOVE 3500 FEET AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER
23Z. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST AT ALL THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 23Z-02Z THURSDAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL/WESTERN NY IS SLOWLY TRACKING EAST AND IS
TIMED TO REACH THE HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE TAF SITES...ASSOCIATED
WITH MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE AROUND OR JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE PROB 30 ARE INDICATED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
IN COVERAGE AND TIMING. THE TIMING OF THE END OF THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS IN QUESTION...SO INDICATING MVFR IN FOG
AND CEILINGS 11Z-14Z...WITH VCSH...THEN VFR VISIBILITIES BUT
CONTINUED MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 14Z-15Z.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
TONIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD
INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SCATTERED SOUTH OF ALBANY. WE ASSIGNED A "WET
FLAG" TO ALL THE NFDRS EXCEPT STONYKILL. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. THERE COULD BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL CONTAINING LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WHICH COULD LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
SHOULD RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY...CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTH 5-10 MPH ON THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION BRINGING
PWAT AIR OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. DUE TO LOW
RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WELL
OVER AN INCH. THIS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHTER AS THE PWAT VALUES WILL DROP BACK DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/SNYDER/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...HWJIV/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 202300
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
700 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILERS IN. THIS
WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT
ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650PM EDT..A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...AND WILL BE SPREADING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MONTGOMERY/FULTON AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE HAS RESULTED IN RADAR EST QPF OF 1-1.8
INCHES LOCALLY...AND HAS PROMPTED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR S HERK CO.
ELSEWHERE SKIES REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATED 1000-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE
JUST AHEAD OF THIS LINE. WHILE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN DIM ACTIVITY...THIS CAPE WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY GOING SVRL MORE HOURS. HAVE INCR
POPS IN W PORTIONS OF FCA AND ADJUSTED TIMING.

MEANWHILE...THE DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...WAS STILL TO OUR WEST.

THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF LULL DURING THE LATE EVENING BEFORE MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WORK FROM THE WEST ARRIVE LATER OVERNIGHT. THESE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE NOSE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET...AND TONGUE OF PWAT AIR AROUND 1.5 INCHES MOVING...INTO
OUR WESTERN AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN PAST NIGHTS...GENERALLY LOWS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST FORCING LOOKING TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. RAIN COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...BUT RIGHT NOW NOT ENOUGH SIGNALS TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
THE GRIDS. WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS
(OROGRAPHICS WILL LIKELY ASSIST WITH ASCENT THERE)...LIKELY POPS
MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT CHANCE POPS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE
FORCING AND PWATS LOOKS LOWER.

WE ARE NOT NECESSARILY EXPECTED A COMPLETE WASHOUT ON THURSDAY...BUT
IT WILL BE DAMP AND GRAY WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME.

DUE TO THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY TOP IN
THE 70S...BUT IT WILL BE HUMID. IF WE WERE TO GET MORE BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...INSTABILITY (WHICH WE EXPECT TO BE LIMITED) WOULD
INCREASE. FOR NOW...JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...(WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK) BUT AGAIN MORE
SUNSHINE COULD MEAN TALLER THUNDER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ACTUAL OCCLUDE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND (LOWER CHANCES AGAIN SOUTH). TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL A LITTLE MORE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST...TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OPENS AND MOVES TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER...INITIALLY THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
LOW SO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND OR POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR
THIS DAY...CARRIED LOW POPS (30) FOR ELEVATIONS 1000 FEET OR
HIGHER...SLIGHT POPS (20) FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DUE TO THE CLOUDS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...LEANED WITH THE (BUT
NOT ALL THE WAY) THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. WE LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 ON FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN REMAINING IN THE 60S ALL DAY LONG.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES BUT WE WILL LIKELY GET UNDER AN
INVERSION WHICH COULD KEEP CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE PATCHY AROUND
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE NO MENTION OF DRIZZLE RIGHT NOW
BUT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DIP BACK MAINLY INTO
THE 50S...LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...UPPER 50S FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

BY SATURDAY...RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
AND LOOKS TO SCOUR AT LEAST SOME OF THE CLOUDS AWAY. A STRAY
AFTERNOON POP UP SHOWER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BUT FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT...THE THREAT OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM THE COLUMN UP A LITTLE. H850 TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND +12C WHICH WITH NORMAL MIXING...WOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST. A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A MORE DOMINANT PRESENCE AS
WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ORIENTATION AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SW TO NE RIGHT OVER OUR AREA WILL PROVIDE CONTINUAL TRANQUIL
WEATHER OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALSO FAVORS LARGE
SCALE SFC DIVERGENCE AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN 80-90 KT JET AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 20/12Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
PAST THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AS TIME GETS CLOSER TO MID NEXT WEEK.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL
SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE APEX OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF OUR REGION AS WE GO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT IS APPROACHING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SCATTERED/BROKEN CUMULUS ABOVE 3500 FEET AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER
23Z. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST AT ALL THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 23Z-02Z THURSDAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL/WESTERN NY IS SLOWLY TRACKING EAST AND IS
TIMED TO REACH THE HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE TAF SITES...ASSOCIATED
WITH MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE AROUND OR JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE PROB 30 ARE INDICATED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
IN COVERAGE AND TIMING. THE TIMING OF THE END OF THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS IN QUESTION...SO INDICATING MVFR IN FOG
AND CEILINGS 11Z-14Z...WITH VCSH...THEN VFR VISIBILITIES BUT
CONTINUED MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 14Z-15Z.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
TONIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD
INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SCATTERED SOUTH OF ALBANY. WE ASSIGNED A "WET
FLAG" TO ALL THE NFDRS EXCEPT STONYKILL. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. THERE COULD BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL CONTAINING LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WHICH COULD LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
SHOULD RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY...CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTH 5-10 MPH ON THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION BRINGING
PWAT AIR OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. DUE TO LOW
RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WELL
OVER AN INCH. THIS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHTER AS THE PWAT VALUES WILL DROP BACK DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/SNYDER/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...HWJIV/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 202035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL IMPACT OUR REGION WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST OFF THE COAST DURING FRIDAY. LOTS OF
LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FEW STRAY SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND ON FRIDAY
AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. BY THE WEEKEND
HOWEVER...HIGH WILL BUILD IN TO BRING MORE SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY AS EXPECTED...ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. THE LATEST LAPS
ANALYSIS INDICATED PLENTY OF SURFACE BASED CAPE FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY WEST...UP TO 2000 J/KG. ONE CELL IN SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY
COUNTY HAS MOVE LITTLE IN THE PAST HOUR...PRODUCING AN INCH OR MORE
RAIN ACCORDING TO DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES. WE ISSUED A BULLET NOW ON
THIS CELL...INDICATING THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRODUCING SOME PRETTY GOOD
PONDING OF WATER.

MEANWHILE...THE DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...WAS STILL TO OUR WEST.

SUSPECT WE WILL HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. THEN...THERE
MIGHT BE A BRIEF LULL DURING THE EVENING BEFORE MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WORK FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT. THESE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET...AND TONGUE
OF PWAT AIR AROUND 1.5 INCHES MOVING...INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN PAST NIGHTS...GENERALLY LOWS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST FORCING LOOKING TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. RAIN COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...BUT RIGHT NOW NOT ENOUGH SIGNALS TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
THE GRIDS. WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS
(OROGRAPHICS WILL LIKELY ASSIST WITH ASCENT THERE)...LIKELY POPS
MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT CHANCE POPS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE
FORCING AND PWATS LOOKS LOWER.

WE ARE NOT NECESSARILY EXPECTED A COMPLETE WASHOUT ON THURSDAY...BUT
IT WILL BE DAMP AND GRAY WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME.

DUE TO THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY TOP IN
THE 70S...BUT IT WILL BE HUMID. IF WE WERE TO GET MORE BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...INSTABILITY (WHICH WE EXPECT TO BE LIMITED) WOULD
INCREASE. FOR NOW...JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...(WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK) BUT AGAIN MORE
SUNSHINE COULD MEAN TALLER THUNDER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ACTUAL OCCLUDE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND (LOWER CHANCES AGAIN SOUTH). TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL A LITTLE MORE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST...TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OPENS AND MOVES TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER...INITIALLY THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
LOW SO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND OR POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR
THIS DAY...CARRIED LOW POPS (30) FOR ELEVATIONS 1000 FEET OR
HIGHER...SLIGHT POPS (20) FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DUE TO THE CLOUDS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...LEANED WITH THE (BUT
NOT ALL THE WAY) THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. WE LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 ON FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN REMAINING IN THE 60S ALL DAY LONG.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES BUT WE WILL LIKELY GET UNDER AN
INVERSION WHICH COULD KEEP CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE PATCHY AROUND
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE NO MENTION OF DRIZZLE RIGHT NOW
BUT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DIP BACK MAINLY INTO
THE 50S...LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...UPPER 50S FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

BY SATURDAY...RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
AND LOOKS TO SCOUR AT LEAST SOME OF THE CLOUDS AWAY. A STRAY
AFTERNOON POP UP SHOWER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BUT FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT...THE THREAT OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM THE COLUMN UP A LITTLE. H850 TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND +12C WHICH WITH NORMAL MIXING...WOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST. A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A MORE DOMINANT PRESENCE AS
WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ORIENTATION AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SW TO NE RIGHT OVER OUR AREA WILL PROVIDE CONTINUAL TRANQUIL
WEATHER OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALSO FAVORS LARGE
SCALE SFC DIVERGENCE AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN 80-90 KT JET AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 20/12Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
PAST THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AS TIME GETS CLOSER TO MID NEXT WEEK.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL
SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE APEX OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF OUR REGION AS WE GO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT IS APPROACHING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SCATTERED/BROKEN CUMULUS ABOVE 3500 FEET AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER
23Z. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST AT ALL THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 23Z-02Z THURSDAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL/WESTERN NY IS SLOWLY TRACKING EAST AND IS
TIMED TO REACH THE HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE TAF SITES...ASSOCIATED
WITH MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE AROUND OR JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE PROB 30 ARE INDICATED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
IN COVERAGE AND TIMING. THE TIMING OF THE END OF THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS IN QUESTION...SO INDICATING MVFR IN FOG
AND CEILINGS 11Z-14Z...WITH VCSH...THEN VFR VISIBILITIES BUT
CONTINUED MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 14Z-15Z.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
TONIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD
INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SCATTERED SOUTH OF ALBANY. WE ASSIGNED A "WET
FLAG" TO ALL THE NFDRS EXCEPT STONYKILL. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. THERE COULD BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL CONTAINING LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WHICH COULD LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
SHOULD RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY...CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTH 5-10 MPH ON THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION BRINGING
PWAT AIR OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. DUE TO LOW
RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WELL
OVER AN INCH. THIS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHTER AS THE PWAT VALUES WILL DROP BACK DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...HWJIV/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KOKX 201955
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
355 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER N MICHIGAN OPENS UP AND SLIDES
TO THE SOUTHEAST...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND IT WILL INFLUENCE THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW
ZONES...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS MORNING. WITH A
SURFACE HIGH NOSING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...DRIER AIR WILL BE PRESENT
BENEATH H9 OR SO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR SOME PRECIPITATION...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT IN MOST
AREAS...AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER REDUCES THE ABILITY FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. GENERALLY USED A MAV/MET/ECS BLEND AS THERE WAS
GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ONGOING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN
BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...AS RIDGING NOSES IN ACROSS
OUR EASTERN SECTIONS. INCLUDED ISO THUNDER ACROSS THE APPROXIMATE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WHERE MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A LITTLE
MORE IN THE WAY OF MUCAPE. ADDITIONALLY...THESE AREAS WILL BE LESS
INFLUENCED BY THE MARITIME AIR BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO E/SE ONSHORE FLOW.

DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...WITH MANY AREAS
STAYING IN THE 70S / BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE FIRST WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING POKING
IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST WILL ALLOW MOST PLACES TO BE DRY LATER IN
THE DAY. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER
LOW TO THE NW OPENS AND APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF A STRONG BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH A DEEP TROUGH OUT WEST WITH AN UPPER LOW
CUTTING OFF OVER THE PAC NW AND AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER ERN CANADA WITH
A WEAK CUTOFF LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS AND TIMING OF VORT MAXES
MOVING AROUND THE LEFT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ONCE IT SLIDES
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GENERAL TREND APPEARS TO BE DECREASING CHC`S OF
SHOWERS DURING FRI AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST
FROM THE N. MAY NEED TO ADD SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AT TIMES THROUGH
SAT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. ADDITIONALLY...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FOR FRI AND
SAT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS A RESULT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE H5 FLOW AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO THE BLOCKING
PATTERN. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD DURING THIS
TIME WITH AN ELY FLOW EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO MON. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THIS TIME...BUT AS
HEIGHTS RISE TUE AND WED...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCT_BKN CU 040-050 NORTH AND WEST OF THE NY METRO OVER THE
HILLIER TERRAIN WILL DISSIPATE BY 01Z.

CONVECTION FROM D.C. NORTH TO CENTRAL PA AND WESTERN NY WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS IT APPROACHES THE PA/NJ BOARDER TOWARDS
02Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NY METRO TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
THESE ARE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS AS THE PROBABILITY OF THIS IS ONLY
30% AT THIS TIME AND THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT FLIGHT
CATEGORY.

THURSDAY MORNING COULD START OFF WITH SOME CIGS AROUND 030...THESE
SHOULD RISE SLIGHTLY TO AT LEAST 035-040 BY AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS THIS AFTN. SPEED
AVERAGE JUST BELOW 10 KT...THOUGH EXPECT OCNL 10-12 KT DURING
FOR THE LATE AFTN DEPARTURE BANK.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY 20 DEGREES OF THE
FCST MEAN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION BEING
30-40 DEGREES RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU AFTN-NGT...VFR. SCATTERED TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE NY
METRO.
.FRI-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXTENDING ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY...AND
ONLY STARTING TO LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THOUGH.

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS...ALTHOUGH COULD
COME CLOSE TO 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE FRI/FRI EVE. AN
INCREASING E-NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN WITH
SCA CONDS EXPECTED BETWEEN FRI NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES THEREAFTER WITH SEAS DIMINISHING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE NJ. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT BASIN AVERAGED TOTALS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN LIGHT...AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PICCA
NEAR TERM...PICCA
SHORT TERM...PICCA
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...24/PICCA
HYDROLOGY...24/PICCA









000
FXUS61 KOKX 201955
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
355 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER N MICHIGAN OPENS UP AND SLIDES
TO THE SOUTHEAST...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND IT WILL INFLUENCE THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW
ZONES...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS MORNING. WITH A
SURFACE HIGH NOSING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...DRIER AIR WILL BE PRESENT
BENEATH H9 OR SO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR SOME PRECIPITATION...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT IN MOST
AREAS...AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER REDUCES THE ABILITY FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. GENERALLY USED A MAV/MET/ECS BLEND AS THERE WAS
GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ONGOING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN
BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...AS RIDGING NOSES IN ACROSS
OUR EASTERN SECTIONS. INCLUDED ISO THUNDER ACROSS THE APPROXIMATE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WHERE MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A LITTLE
MORE IN THE WAY OF MUCAPE. ADDITIONALLY...THESE AREAS WILL BE LESS
INFLUENCED BY THE MARITIME AIR BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO E/SE ONSHORE FLOW.

DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...WITH MANY AREAS
STAYING IN THE 70S / BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE FIRST WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING POKING
IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST WILL ALLOW MOST PLACES TO BE DRY LATER IN
THE DAY. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER
LOW TO THE NW OPENS AND APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF A STRONG BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH A DEEP TROUGH OUT WEST WITH AN UPPER LOW
CUTTING OFF OVER THE PAC NW AND AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER ERN CANADA WITH
A WEAK CUTOFF LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS AND TIMING OF VORT MAXES
MOVING AROUND THE LEFT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ONCE IT SLIDES
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GENERAL TREND APPEARS TO BE DECREASING CHC`S OF
SHOWERS DURING FRI AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST
FROM THE N. MAY NEED TO ADD SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AT TIMES THROUGH
SAT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. ADDITIONALLY...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FOR FRI AND
SAT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS A RESULT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE H5 FLOW AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO THE BLOCKING
PATTERN. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD DURING THIS
TIME WITH AN ELY FLOW EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO MON. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THIS TIME...BUT AS
HEIGHTS RISE TUE AND WED...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCT_BKN CU 040-050 NORTH AND WEST OF THE NY METRO OVER THE
HILLIER TERRAIN WILL DISSIPATE BY 01Z.

CONVECTION FROM D.C. NORTH TO CENTRAL PA AND WESTERN NY WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS IT APPROACHES THE PA/NJ BOARDER TOWARDS
02Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NY METRO TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
THESE ARE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS AS THE PROBABILITY OF THIS IS ONLY
30% AT THIS TIME AND THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT FLIGHT
CATEGORY.

THURSDAY MORNING COULD START OFF WITH SOME CIGS AROUND 030...THESE
SHOULD RISE SLIGHTLY TO AT LEAST 035-040 BY AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS THIS AFTN. SPEED
AVERAGE JUST BELOW 10 KT...THOUGH EXPECT OCNL 10-12 KT DURING
FOR THE LATE AFTN DEPARTURE BANK.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY 20 DEGREES OF THE
FCST MEAN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION BEING
30-40 DEGREES RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU AFTN-NGT...VFR. SCATTERED TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE NY
METRO.
.FRI-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXTENDING ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY...AND
ONLY STARTING TO LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THOUGH.

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS...ALTHOUGH COULD
COME CLOSE TO 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE FRI/FRI EVE. AN
INCREASING E-NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN WITH
SCA CONDS EXPECTED BETWEEN FRI NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES THEREAFTER WITH SEAS DIMINISHING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE NJ. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT BASIN AVERAGED TOTALS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN LIGHT...AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PICCA
NEAR TERM...PICCA
SHORT TERM...PICCA
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...24/PICCA
HYDROLOGY...24/PICCA









000
FXUS61 KOKX 201955
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
355 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER N MICHIGAN OPENS UP AND SLIDES
TO THE SOUTHEAST...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND IT WILL INFLUENCE THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW
ZONES...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS MORNING. WITH A
SURFACE HIGH NOSING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...DRIER AIR WILL BE PRESENT
BENEATH H9 OR SO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR SOME PRECIPITATION...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT IN MOST
AREAS...AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER REDUCES THE ABILITY FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. GENERALLY USED A MAV/MET/ECS BLEND AS THERE WAS
GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ONGOING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN
BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...AS RIDGING NOSES IN ACROSS
OUR EASTERN SECTIONS. INCLUDED ISO THUNDER ACROSS THE APPROXIMATE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WHERE MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A LITTLE
MORE IN THE WAY OF MUCAPE. ADDITIONALLY...THESE AREAS WILL BE LESS
INFLUENCED BY THE MARITIME AIR BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO E/SE ONSHORE FLOW.

DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...WITH MANY AREAS
STAYING IN THE 70S / BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE FIRST WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING POKING
IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST WILL ALLOW MOST PLACES TO BE DRY LATER IN
THE DAY. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER
LOW TO THE NW OPENS AND APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF A STRONG BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH A DEEP TROUGH OUT WEST WITH AN UPPER LOW
CUTTING OFF OVER THE PAC NW AND AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER ERN CANADA WITH
A WEAK CUTOFF LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS AND TIMING OF VORT MAXES
MOVING AROUND THE LEFT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ONCE IT SLIDES
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GENERAL TREND APPEARS TO BE DECREASING CHC`S OF
SHOWERS DURING FRI AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST
FROM THE N. MAY NEED TO ADD SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AT TIMES THROUGH
SAT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. ADDITIONALLY...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FOR FRI AND
SAT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS A RESULT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE H5 FLOW AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO THE BLOCKING
PATTERN. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD DURING THIS
TIME WITH AN ELY FLOW EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO MON. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THIS TIME...BUT AS
HEIGHTS RISE TUE AND WED...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCT_BKN CU 040-050 NORTH AND WEST OF THE NY METRO OVER THE
HILLIER TERRAIN WILL DISSIPATE BY 01Z.

CONVECTION FROM D.C. NORTH TO CENTRAL PA AND WESTERN NY WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS IT APPROACHES THE PA/NJ BOARDER TOWARDS
02Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NY METRO TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
THESE ARE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS AS THE PROBABILITY OF THIS IS ONLY
30% AT THIS TIME AND THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT FLIGHT
CATEGORY.

THURSDAY MORNING COULD START OFF WITH SOME CIGS AROUND 030...THESE
SHOULD RISE SLIGHTLY TO AT LEAST 035-040 BY AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS THIS AFTN. SPEED
AVERAGE JUST BELOW 10 KT...THOUGH EXPECT OCNL 10-12 KT DURING
FOR THE LATE AFTN DEPARTURE BANK.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY 20 DEGREES OF THE
FCST MEAN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION BEING
30-40 DEGREES RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU AFTN-NGT...VFR. SCATTERED TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE NY
METRO.
.FRI-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXTENDING ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY...AND
ONLY STARTING TO LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THOUGH.

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS...ALTHOUGH COULD
COME CLOSE TO 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE FRI/FRI EVE. AN
INCREASING E-NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN WITH
SCA CONDS EXPECTED BETWEEN FRI NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES THEREAFTER WITH SEAS DIMINISHING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE NJ. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT BASIN AVERAGED TOTALS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN LIGHT...AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PICCA
NEAR TERM...PICCA
SHORT TERM...PICCA
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...24/PICCA
HYDROLOGY...24/PICCA









000
FXUS61 KOKX 201955
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
355 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER N MICHIGAN OPENS UP AND SLIDES
TO THE SOUTHEAST...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND IT WILL INFLUENCE THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW
ZONES...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS MORNING. WITH A
SURFACE HIGH NOSING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...DRIER AIR WILL BE PRESENT
BENEATH H9 OR SO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR SOME PRECIPITATION...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT IN MOST
AREAS...AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER REDUCES THE ABILITY FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. GENERALLY USED A MAV/MET/ECS BLEND AS THERE WAS
GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ONGOING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN
BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...AS RIDGING NOSES IN ACROSS
OUR EASTERN SECTIONS. INCLUDED ISO THUNDER ACROSS THE APPROXIMATE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WHERE MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A LITTLE
MORE IN THE WAY OF MUCAPE. ADDITIONALLY...THESE AREAS WILL BE LESS
INFLUENCED BY THE MARITIME AIR BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE AREA THANKS
TO E/SE ONSHORE FLOW.

DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...WITH MANY AREAS
STAYING IN THE 70S / BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE FIRST WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND THE CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING POKING
IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST WILL ALLOW MOST PLACES TO BE DRY LATER IN
THE DAY. CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER
LOW TO THE NW OPENS AND APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF A STRONG BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH A DEEP TROUGH OUT WEST WITH AN UPPER LOW
CUTTING OFF OVER THE PAC NW AND AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER ERN CANADA WITH
A WEAK CUTOFF LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS AND TIMING OF VORT MAXES
MOVING AROUND THE LEFT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ONCE IT SLIDES
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GENERAL TREND APPEARS TO BE DECREASING CHC`S OF
SHOWERS DURING FRI AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST
FROM THE N. MAY NEED TO ADD SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AT TIMES THROUGH
SAT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. ADDITIONALLY...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FOR FRI AND
SAT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS A RESULT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE H5 FLOW AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO THE BLOCKING
PATTERN. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD DURING THIS
TIME WITH AN ELY FLOW EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO MON. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THOUGHT THIS TIME...BUT AS
HEIGHTS RISE TUE AND WED...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCT_BKN CU 040-050 NORTH AND WEST OF THE NY METRO OVER THE
HILLIER TERRAIN WILL DISSIPATE BY 01Z.

CONVECTION FROM D.C. NORTH TO CENTRAL PA AND WESTERN NY WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS IT APPROACHES THE PA/NJ BOARDER TOWARDS
02Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NY METRO TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
THESE ARE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS AS THE PROBABILITY OF THIS IS ONLY
30% AT THIS TIME AND THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT FLIGHT
CATEGORY.

THURSDAY MORNING COULD START OFF WITH SOME CIGS AROUND 030...THESE
SHOULD RISE SLIGHTLY TO AT LEAST 035-040 BY AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS THIS AFTN. SPEED
AVERAGE JUST BELOW 10 KT...THOUGH EXPECT OCNL 10-12 KT DURING
FOR THE LATE AFTN DEPARTURE BANK.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY 20 DEGREES OF THE
FCST MEAN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION BEING
30-40 DEGREES RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU AFTN-NGT...VFR. SCATTERED TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE NY
METRO.
.FRI-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXTENDING ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY...AND
ONLY STARTING TO LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THOUGH.

WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS...ALTHOUGH COULD
COME CLOSE TO 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE FRI/FRI EVE. AN
INCREASING E-NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN WITH
SCA CONDS EXPECTED BETWEEN FRI NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES THEREAFTER WITH SEAS DIMINISHING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE NJ. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT BASIN AVERAGED TOTALS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN LIGHT...AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PICCA
NEAR TERM...PICCA
SHORT TERM...PICCA
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...24/PICCA
HYDROLOGY...24/PICCA









000
FXUS61 KBUF 201950
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
350 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE MUCH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE MAJORITY OF
THOSE TWO DAYS WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...BROAD LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER
LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TO LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE
PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD INTO LAKE ONTARIO
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

TOGETHER...THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THEIR
NORTH AND EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY COMING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONJUNCTION
WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE SUPPORTING MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW.
FOR OUR REGION...THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE FINGER LAKES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
SCATTERED THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF WEAKER FORCING...AND /ON
THURSDAY/ SOMEWHAT LESSER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE.

WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...A MOIST AIRMASS...AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
BIG THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY ...PARTICULARLY IF CELLS CAN TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER A
PARTICULAR AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
UNLIKELY DUE TO THE ABOVE FACTORS.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...SKIES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING OF OUR WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY LARGELY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. IT
WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW
TRAVERSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
SHIFTS TO THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS...WILL JUST STICK WITH LOWER-END
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO ENCROACH UPON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. THIS
MODERATING EFFECT WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTS WITH LOWS LARGELY
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT DURING
THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION. A
SURFACE HIGH SITTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A BROAD
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH THURSDAY...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST TO LAKE ONTARIO AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN...WHILE PUSHING AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK NORTHEASTWARD
INTO LAKE ONTARIO AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED BRIEF MVFR/IFR WILL
PERIODICALLY AFFECT AREAS OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHILE MUCH
MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE BEHIND IT.

OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...SAVE
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WHEN SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR KBUF/KIAG...AND SOME MORE GENERAL
MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING OF OUR MOIST AIRMASS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EAST INTO LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THIS LOW TRACKS EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND
WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR







000
FXUS61 KBUF 201950
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
350 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE MUCH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE MAJORITY OF
THOSE TWO DAYS WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...BROAD LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER
LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TO LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE
PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD INTO LAKE ONTARIO
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

TOGETHER...THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THEIR
NORTH AND EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY COMING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONJUNCTION
WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE SUPPORTING MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW.
FOR OUR REGION...THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE FINGER LAKES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
SCATTERED THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF WEAKER FORCING...AND /ON
THURSDAY/ SOMEWHAT LESSER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE.

WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...A MOIST AIRMASS...AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
BIG THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY ...PARTICULARLY IF CELLS CAN TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER A
PARTICULAR AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
UNLIKELY DUE TO THE ABOVE FACTORS.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...SKIES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING OF OUR WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY LARGELY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. IT
WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW
TRAVERSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
SHIFTS TO THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS...WILL JUST STICK WITH LOWER-END
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO ENCROACH UPON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. THIS
MODERATING EFFECT WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTS WITH LOWS LARGELY
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT DURING
THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION. A
SURFACE HIGH SITTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A BROAD
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH THURSDAY...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST TO LAKE ONTARIO AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN...WHILE PUSHING AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK NORTHEASTWARD
INTO LAKE ONTARIO AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED BRIEF MVFR/IFR WILL
PERIODICALLY AFFECT AREAS OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHILE MUCH
MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE BEHIND IT.

OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...SAVE
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WHEN SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR KBUF/KIAG...AND SOME MORE GENERAL
MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING OF OUR MOIST AIRMASS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EAST INTO LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THIS LOW TRACKS EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND
WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR







000
FXUS61 KBUF 201950
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
350 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE MUCH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE MAJORITY OF
THOSE TWO DAYS WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...BROAD LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER
LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TO LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE
PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD INTO LAKE ONTARIO
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

TOGETHER...THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THEIR
NORTH AND EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY COMING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONJUNCTION
WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE SUPPORTING MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW.
FOR OUR REGION...THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE FINGER LAKES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
SCATTERED THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF WEAKER FORCING...AND /ON
THURSDAY/ SOMEWHAT LESSER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE.

WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...A MOIST AIRMASS...AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
BIG THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY ...PARTICULARLY IF CELLS CAN TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER A
PARTICULAR AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
UNLIKELY DUE TO THE ABOVE FACTORS.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...SKIES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING OF OUR WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY LARGELY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. IT
WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW
TRAVERSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
SHIFTS TO THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS...WILL JUST STICK WITH LOWER-END
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO ENCROACH UPON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. THIS
MODERATING EFFECT WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTS WITH LOWS LARGELY
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT DURING
THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION. A
SURFACE HIGH SITTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A BROAD
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH THURSDAY...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST TO LAKE ONTARIO AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN...WHILE PUSHING AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK NORTHEASTWARD
INTO LAKE ONTARIO AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED BRIEF MVFR/IFR WILL
PERIODICALLY AFFECT AREAS OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHILE MUCH
MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE BEHIND IT.

OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...SAVE
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WHEN SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR KBUF/KIAG...AND SOME MORE GENERAL
MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING OF OUR MOIST AIRMASS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EAST INTO LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THIS LOW TRACKS EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND
WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR







000
FXUS61 KBUF 201950
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
350 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE MUCH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE MAJORITY OF
THOSE TWO DAYS WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...BROAD LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER
LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TO LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE
PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD INTO LAKE ONTARIO
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

TOGETHER...THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THEIR
NORTH AND EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY COMING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONJUNCTION
WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE SUPPORTING MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW.
FOR OUR REGION...THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE FINGER LAKES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
SCATTERED THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF WEAKER FORCING...AND /ON
THURSDAY/ SOMEWHAT LESSER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE.

WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...A MOIST AIRMASS...AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
BIG THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY ...PARTICULARLY IF CELLS CAN TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER A
PARTICULAR AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
UNLIKELY DUE TO THE ABOVE FACTORS.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...SKIES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING OF OUR WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY LARGELY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. IT
WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW
TRAVERSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
SHIFTS TO THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS...WILL JUST STICK WITH LOWER-END
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO ENCROACH UPON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. THIS
MODERATING EFFECT WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTS WITH LOWS LARGELY
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT DURING
THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION. A
SURFACE HIGH SITTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A BROAD
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH THURSDAY...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST TO LAKE ONTARIO AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN...WHILE PUSHING AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK NORTHEASTWARD
INTO LAKE ONTARIO AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED BRIEF MVFR/IFR WILL
PERIODICALLY AFFECT AREAS OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHILE MUCH
MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE BEHIND IT.

OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...SAVE
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WHEN SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR KBUF/KIAG...AND SOME MORE GENERAL
MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING OF OUR MOIST AIRMASS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EAST INTO LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THIS LOW TRACKS EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND
WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR







000
FXUS61 KBTV 201943
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
343 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
VERMONT. DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THAT HIGH WILL STICK AROUND, GIVING
US A LONG STRING OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER THAT WILL LAST FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ACROSS VT. ONGOING LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL NY STATE. IT HAS BEEN VERY
SLOW TO MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY WITH LIGHT DEEP-LAYER WINDS PRODUCING
SLOW STORM MOTIONS /LESS THAN 20 KTS/. AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY MORE
UNSTABLE FURTHER SOUTH...BUT LAPS CAPE VALUES RANGE FROM NIL
ACROSS VT TO AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE LOWER ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONSENSUS /HRRR...BTV-4 AND NMM-ARW/
LIFTS THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO NORTHERN NY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL MENTION THIS IN HWO. 1-/3-HR
FFG IS RELATIVELY HIGH (ABOUT 2.5" NEEDED IN 3 HR PERIOD) SO NOT
THINKING ANY FLASH FLOODING. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RAIN
SHIELD NEVER MAKES IT INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO CENTRAL VERMONT. POPS RANGE FROM
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE ACROSS VERMONT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

TEMPS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN VT WHERE
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK UNDER OVERCAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW OPENS
UP/WEAKENS AS IT PROGESSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN NY /LIKELY POPS/ ON THURSDAY...THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VT IS ON THURSDAY. AIRMASS STILL
IS FAIRLY MOIST WITH PWS AROUND 1.5" WITH 12Z NAM SHOWING CAPE
VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. THE THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY IS
LIMITED GIVEN EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO LOSING
BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING GIVEN WEAKENING UPPER LOW. THEREFORE I`VE
ONLY GONE WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY. DESPITE 850 TEMPS OF +11 TO
+13C...OVERCAST WILL ONLY KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. OVERALL
DECREASING TREND IN POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCE
PIVOTS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

LARGE GRADIENT IN STORM TOTAL QPF /SPANNING WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY/. AMOUNTS RANGE FROM NIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM...UNDER 0.5" FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...TO UP TO 1.25" FOR
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD
QUEBEC AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
TO AN OPEN WAVE. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
BUT SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL WIN OUT BY LATE IN THE
DAY INTO THE EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MORE BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO
TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...12Z GUIDANCE FROM GFS, GFS ENSEMBLES
AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY DARN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER
AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL PREVIOUS RUNS, THUS I WOULD RATE MY
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS ABOVE NORMAL. IN SUMMARY, LARGE
SCALE BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY, RESULTING IN DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK (SUMMER WILL HANG ON NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAKES THIS
FORECASTER PERSONALLY HAPPY). WITH THE CLOSENESS AMONG THE MODELS, I
SAW NO REASON TO SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATE FROM THE PURE BLEND BETWEEN
THEM ALL. HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA.
STILL SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT IN
GENERAL THE FORECAST IS A DRY ONE. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY NOSING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. LUCKILY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR WARMEST SO I DON`T EXPECT ANY
ISSUES WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AS WE WOULD SEE IN
THE SPRING OR EVEN EARLY SUMMER. HOWEVER IT WILL SET UP AN A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND WARMEST IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10-12C (EAST TO WEST), HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO UPPER 70S IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT.
VALLEY FOG WILL PROBABLY FORM AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS
GENERALL IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...DITTO.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH ON TOP OF THE AREA
ALONG WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. NET RESULT: LOTS OF SUN AND VERY
LIGHT WINDS. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE 12-13C RANGE AND WITH
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING, WE SHOULD REALIZE THE FULL POTENTIAL OF WARMTH
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. MONDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...ALMOST IDENTICAL TO MONDAY, EXCEPT THE HIGH SINKS JUST A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. IN RESPONSE, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A DEGREE OR TWO
FROM MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP AROUND 12-14C, SO LOOK
FOR LOWER 80S TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. STILL DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND
A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PERHAPS AS LOW AS 7500FT SO ANY
DAYTIME CUMULUS THAT FORMS WILL BE VERY SHALLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS A REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH IS A REPEAT OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME. GFS & IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE STRONG, MEANING LOTS O` SUN. ECMWF FLATTENS
THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE
NORTH AND BRINGS IN SOME MOISTURE TO NORTHERN NY LATE IN THE DAY
SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ABOUT. WITH THE BLEND I USED, I
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION, BUT PAINTED IN SOME 10-20%
POPS IN NORTHERN NY. THE BASIC WORDED FORECAST WILL INDICATE A DRY
DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 14-16C OR SO, THUS EVEN MORE OF
THE AREA WILL BE POKING ABOVE THE 80F MARK -- WITH EVEN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY....CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME
HEATING CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD BE FORMING
SOON (SO HAVE COVERED SLK WITH VCSH THE NEXT FEW HOURS). WATCHING
SLOW MOVING AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND AFFECT TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KMSS & KSLK. HARD TO
SPECIFICALLY PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE AT EXACT
TIMES, SO IN GENERAL THE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SPECIFICS IN
THE FORECAST IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT. HAVE INCLUDED THE VCSH/VCTS.
TOOK A STAB AT A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
OCCURRING AFTER 00Z FOR THE NORTHERN NEW YORK LOCATIONS WITH
PREDOMINANTE -SHRA IN THE TAFS. FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST, THE SHOWERS WON`T BE GETTING EVEN CLOSE ENOUGH UNTIL
WELL AFTER 00Z AND PROBABLY WON`T BE AS CONCENTRATED. THUS VCSH
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AGAIN HITS MONTPELIER
(MPV) HARD WITH LIFR CONDITIONS IN BOTH CEILING AND VISIBILITY
WITH DENSE FOG. THINK IT WILL BE MORE STRATUS AND LESS FOG
TONIGHT, BUT THE END RESULT COULD BE THE SAME WITH A CLOUD DECK
JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE GROUND. FOR THURSDAY, THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW OFF TO OUR WEST WILL
BE MORE OR LESS OVER THE AREA. KEPT IT VFR FOR VERMONT SIDE,
THOUGH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY BE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THUR TO 00Z SAT...AREAS OF MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS.

00Z SAT ONWARD...VFR, EXCEPT IFR IN LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG
(PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBGM 201849
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
249 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. THIS LOW WILL PASS EASTWARD AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST WITH IMPROVING WEATHER FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS SLOW MOVING SHRA IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION THAT WERE
BACK BUILDING TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER, THE SHRA WERE BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORMISH IN NATURE AS THERE WAS LITTLE CAPE AROUND 200 TO 300
J/KG. THE CAPE WAS ALSO TALL AND SKINNY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
SINCE THE CAPE WAS NOT THAT HIGH THE ACVTY REALLY WASNT BLOSSOMING
ENUF FOR HEAVY RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE NO FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES PLANNED. WE ARE SEEING SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN
ISSUES IN A FEW PLACES AND HAVE COVERED WITH FLOOD ADVISORIES.
THESE SHRA WILL CONT TO WORK E AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROF THAT WAS SUPPORTG THE ABV MENTIONED ACVTY
EXTENDED FROM NEAR SSM SOUTHWARD TO THE ERN OHIO VALLEY. ALL THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THAT A FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH E INTO C
NY AND NRN PA FROM THE ERN OH VLLY AND WEAKEN BY 23 TO 00Z. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE ACVTY TO CONT TO WORK E INTO THIS EVENING. THEN
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY SEEN OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES AND WILL
EXTEND NW TO SE FROM THE ERN LAKES TO NJ BY 08Z TO 09Z AND
SUPPORT RENEWED SHRA AND POTENTIALLY A LITTLE THUNDER LATER
TONIGHT. AGAIN CAPES WILL BE LOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOOD ISSUES BUT POPS WILL BE HIGHER.

FOR THURSDAY...THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL SUPPORT MORE SHRA AND MORE
TSRA AS CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THU THAN TODAY. PLUS THERE
IS A LITTLE MORE SHEAR. BUT SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES ARE BELOW WHAT
WOULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER HISTORICALLY. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG WITH BULK WIND SHEARS BETWEEN 0
AND 6 KM ARND 20 KNOTS. AGAIN PWATS ARE ARND 1.5 INCHES AND
STORMS WON/T BE MOVING THAT FAST AS MBE VECTORS ARE SMALL SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND FILLS AS IT WORKS OVER NY AND PA. GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND A FAIRLY MOIST BNDRY
LAYER...I CAN SEE SOME ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A LITTLE THUNDER
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD WHERE DWPTS
WILL REMAIN HIGHER AND THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL CAPE INTO THE NIGHT. SFC
RDGING WAS BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM NEW ENGLAND AND BEGINS TO DRY
OUT OUR ERN ZONES FROM THE UPPER MOHAWK TO WRN CATSKILLS THU NGT.
HENCE POPS ARE HIGHER TO THE W OF I-81 AND LOWER TO THE E THU NGT.
THIS PATTERN OF INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS A WEAK
IMPULSE DROPS SEWRD. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHRA OR TSRA FRI SO I
HAVE POPS FRI FM SLGHT CHC TO CHC WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST.
SOME ACVTY CUD LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT SO HAVE KEPT SOME RESIDUAL POPS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY.

FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW ENGLAND AND WE
SHUD HAVE FAIR WEATHER WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
WPC GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WITH 588 DM
HEIGHTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS RIDGE WITH VERY
QUIET WEATHER. WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR
THE SURFACE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST,
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. EVENTUALLY THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MUCH, MUCH WARMER AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT, NEXT CONCERN WILL BE
POTENTIAL LOW CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY FROM KELM THROUGH KITH/KBGM. CONFIDENCE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND FAR SOUTH A BIT MORE IN QUESTION. AT THE
SITES MENTIONED IN NY, IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW THEY SEEM MOST
LIKELY AT THE ELEVATED SITES SO I INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP HERE.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR BY MID THURSDAY MORNING TO VFR IN THE
VALLEYS, BUT MVFR MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE UP ON THE HILLS. ALSO,
ACROSS THE NY TERMINALS SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FROM MID
THURSDAY MORNING ON.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA...AND LGT OVRNGT
FOG/ST.

SAT-MON...VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY FOG AT KELM.


&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 201849
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
249 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. THIS LOW WILL PASS EASTWARD AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST WITH IMPROVING WEATHER FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS SLOW MOVING SHRA IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION THAT WERE
BACK BUILDING TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER, THE SHRA WERE BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORMISH IN NATURE AS THERE WAS LITTLE CAPE AROUND 200 TO 300
J/KG. THE CAPE WAS ALSO TALL AND SKINNY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
SINCE THE CAPE WAS NOT THAT HIGH THE ACVTY REALLY WASNT BLOSSOMING
ENUF FOR HEAVY RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE NO FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES PLANNED. WE ARE SEEING SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN
ISSUES IN A FEW PLACES AND HAVE COVERED WITH FLOOD ADVISORIES.
THESE SHRA WILL CONT TO WORK E AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROF THAT WAS SUPPORTG THE ABV MENTIONED ACVTY
EXTENDED FROM NEAR SSM SOUTHWARD TO THE ERN OHIO VALLEY. ALL THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THAT A FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH E INTO C
NY AND NRN PA FROM THE ERN OH VLLY AND WEAKEN BY 23 TO 00Z. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE ACVTY TO CONT TO WORK E INTO THIS EVENING. THEN
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY SEEN OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES AND WILL
EXTEND NW TO SE FROM THE ERN LAKES TO NJ BY 08Z TO 09Z AND
SUPPORT RENEWED SHRA AND POTENTIALLY A LITTLE THUNDER LATER
TONIGHT. AGAIN CAPES WILL BE LOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOOD ISSUES BUT POPS WILL BE HIGHER.

FOR THURSDAY...THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL SUPPORT MORE SHRA AND MORE
TSRA AS CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THU THAN TODAY. PLUS THERE
IS A LITTLE MORE SHEAR. BUT SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES ARE BELOW WHAT
WOULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER HISTORICALLY. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG WITH BULK WIND SHEARS BETWEEN 0
AND 6 KM ARND 20 KNOTS. AGAIN PWATS ARE ARND 1.5 INCHES AND
STORMS WON/T BE MOVING THAT FAST AS MBE VECTORS ARE SMALL SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND FILLS AS IT WORKS OVER NY AND PA. GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND A FAIRLY MOIST BNDRY
LAYER...I CAN SEE SOME ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A LITTLE THUNDER
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD WHERE DWPTS
WILL REMAIN HIGHER AND THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL CAPE INTO THE NIGHT. SFC
RDGING WAS BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM NEW ENGLAND AND BEGINS TO DRY
OUT OUR ERN ZONES FROM THE UPPER MOHAWK TO WRN CATSKILLS THU NGT.
HENCE POPS ARE HIGHER TO THE W OF I-81 AND LOWER TO THE E THU NGT.
THIS PATTERN OF INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS A WEAK
IMPULSE DROPS SEWRD. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHRA OR TSRA FRI SO I
HAVE POPS FRI FM SLGHT CHC TO CHC WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST.
SOME ACVTY CUD LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT SO HAVE KEPT SOME RESIDUAL POPS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY.

FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW ENGLAND AND WE
SHUD HAVE FAIR WEATHER WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
WPC GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WITH 588 DM
HEIGHTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS RIDGE WITH VERY
QUIET WEATHER. WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR
THE SURFACE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST,
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. EVENTUALLY THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MUCH, MUCH WARMER AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT, NEXT CONCERN WILL BE
POTENTIAL LOW CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY FROM KELM THROUGH KITH/KBGM. CONFIDENCE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND FAR SOUTH A BIT MORE IN QUESTION. AT THE
SITES MENTIONED IN NY, IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW THEY SEEM MOST
LIKELY AT THE ELEVATED SITES SO I INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP HERE.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR BY MID THURSDAY MORNING TO VFR IN THE
VALLEYS, BUT MVFR MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE UP ON THE HILLS. ALSO,
ACROSS THE NY TERMINALS SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FROM MID
THURSDAY MORNING ON.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA...AND LGT OVRNGT
FOG/ST.

SAT-MON...VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY FOG AT KELM.


&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 201849
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
249 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. THIS LOW WILL PASS EASTWARD AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST WITH IMPROVING WEATHER FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS SLOW MOVING SHRA IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION THAT WERE
BACK BUILDING TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER, THE SHRA WERE BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORMISH IN NATURE AS THERE WAS LITTLE CAPE AROUND 200 TO 300
J/KG. THE CAPE WAS ALSO TALL AND SKINNY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
SINCE THE CAPE WAS NOT THAT HIGH THE ACVTY REALLY WASNT BLOSSOMING
ENUF FOR HEAVY RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE NO FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES PLANNED. WE ARE SEEING SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN
ISSUES IN A FEW PLACES AND HAVE COVERED WITH FLOOD ADVISORIES.
THESE SHRA WILL CONT TO WORK E AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROF THAT WAS SUPPORTG THE ABV MENTIONED ACVTY
EXTENDED FROM NEAR SSM SOUTHWARD TO THE ERN OHIO VALLEY. ALL THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THAT A FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH E INTO C
NY AND NRN PA FROM THE ERN OH VLLY AND WEAKEN BY 23 TO 00Z. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE ACVTY TO CONT TO WORK E INTO THIS EVENING. THEN
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY SEEN OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES AND WILL
EXTEND NW TO SE FROM THE ERN LAKES TO NJ BY 08Z TO 09Z AND
SUPPORT RENEWED SHRA AND POTENTIALLY A LITTLE THUNDER LATER
TONIGHT. AGAIN CAPES WILL BE LOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOOD ISSUES BUT POPS WILL BE HIGHER.

FOR THURSDAY...THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL SUPPORT MORE SHRA AND MORE
TSRA AS CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THU THAN TODAY. PLUS THERE
IS A LITTLE MORE SHEAR. BUT SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES ARE BELOW WHAT
WOULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER HISTORICALLY. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG WITH BULK WIND SHEARS BETWEEN 0
AND 6 KM ARND 20 KNOTS. AGAIN PWATS ARE ARND 1.5 INCHES AND
STORMS WON/T BE MOVING THAT FAST AS MBE VECTORS ARE SMALL SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND FILLS AS IT WORKS OVER NY AND PA. GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND A FAIRLY MOIST BNDRY
LAYER...I CAN SEE SOME ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A LITTLE THUNDER
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD WHERE DWPTS
WILL REMAIN HIGHER AND THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL CAPE INTO THE NIGHT. SFC
RDGING WAS BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM NEW ENGLAND AND BEGINS TO DRY
OUT OUR ERN ZONES FROM THE UPPER MOHAWK TO WRN CATSKILLS THU NGT.
HENCE POPS ARE HIGHER TO THE W OF I-81 AND LOWER TO THE E THU NGT.
THIS PATTERN OF INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS A WEAK
IMPULSE DROPS SEWRD. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHRA OR TSRA FRI SO I
HAVE POPS FRI FM SLGHT CHC TO CHC WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST.
SOME ACVTY CUD LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT SO HAVE KEPT SOME RESIDUAL POPS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY.

FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW ENGLAND AND WE
SHUD HAVE FAIR WEATHER WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
WPC GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WITH 588 DM
HEIGHTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS RIDGE WITH VERY
QUIET WEATHER. WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR
THE SURFACE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST,
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. EVENTUALLY THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MUCH, MUCH WARMER AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT, NEXT CONCERN WILL BE
POTENTIAL LOW CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY FROM KELM THROUGH KITH/KBGM. CONFIDENCE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND FAR SOUTH A BIT MORE IN QUESTION. AT THE
SITES MENTIONED IN NY, IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW THEY SEEM MOST
LIKELY AT THE ELEVATED SITES SO I INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP HERE.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR BY MID THURSDAY MORNING TO VFR IN THE
VALLEYS, BUT MVFR MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE UP ON THE HILLS. ALSO,
ACROSS THE NY TERMINALS SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FROM MID
THURSDAY MORNING ON.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA...AND LGT OVRNGT
FOG/ST.

SAT-MON...VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY FOG AT KELM.


&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 201849
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
249 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. THIS LOW WILL PASS EASTWARD AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST WITH IMPROVING WEATHER FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS SLOW MOVING SHRA IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION THAT WERE
BACK BUILDING TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER, THE SHRA WERE BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORMISH IN NATURE AS THERE WAS LITTLE CAPE AROUND 200 TO 300
J/KG. THE CAPE WAS ALSO TALL AND SKINNY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
SINCE THE CAPE WAS NOT THAT HIGH THE ACVTY REALLY WASNT BLOSSOMING
ENUF FOR HEAVY RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE NO FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES PLANNED. WE ARE SEEING SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN
ISSUES IN A FEW PLACES AND HAVE COVERED WITH FLOOD ADVISORIES.
THESE SHRA WILL CONT TO WORK E AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROF THAT WAS SUPPORTG THE ABV MENTIONED ACVTY
EXTENDED FROM NEAR SSM SOUTHWARD TO THE ERN OHIO VALLEY. ALL THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THAT A FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH E INTO C
NY AND NRN PA FROM THE ERN OH VLLY AND WEAKEN BY 23 TO 00Z. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE ACVTY TO CONT TO WORK E INTO THIS EVENING. THEN
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY SEEN OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES AND WILL
EXTEND NW TO SE FROM THE ERN LAKES TO NJ BY 08Z TO 09Z AND
SUPPORT RENEWED SHRA AND POTENTIALLY A LITTLE THUNDER LATER
TONIGHT. AGAIN CAPES WILL BE LOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOOD ISSUES BUT POPS WILL BE HIGHER.

FOR THURSDAY...THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL SUPPORT MORE SHRA AND MORE
TSRA AS CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THU THAN TODAY. PLUS THERE
IS A LITTLE MORE SHEAR. BUT SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES ARE BELOW WHAT
WOULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER HISTORICALLY. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG WITH BULK WIND SHEARS BETWEEN 0
AND 6 KM ARND 20 KNOTS. AGAIN PWATS ARE ARND 1.5 INCHES AND
STORMS WON/T BE MOVING THAT FAST AS MBE VECTORS ARE SMALL SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND FILLS AS IT WORKS OVER NY AND PA. GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND A FAIRLY MOIST BNDRY
LAYER...I CAN SEE SOME ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A LITTLE THUNDER
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD WHERE DWPTS
WILL REMAIN HIGHER AND THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL CAPE INTO THE NIGHT. SFC
RDGING WAS BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM NEW ENGLAND AND BEGINS TO DRY
OUT OUR ERN ZONES FROM THE UPPER MOHAWK TO WRN CATSKILLS THU NGT.
HENCE POPS ARE HIGHER TO THE W OF I-81 AND LOWER TO THE E THU NGT.
THIS PATTERN OF INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS A WEAK
IMPULSE DROPS SEWRD. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHRA OR TSRA FRI SO I
HAVE POPS FRI FM SLGHT CHC TO CHC WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST.
SOME ACVTY CUD LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT SO HAVE KEPT SOME RESIDUAL POPS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY.

FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW ENGLAND AND WE
SHUD HAVE FAIR WEATHER WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
WPC GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WITH 588 DM
HEIGHTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS RIDGE WITH VERY
QUIET WEATHER. WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR
THE SURFACE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST,
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. EVENTUALLY THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MUCH, MUCH WARMER AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT, NEXT CONCERN WILL BE
POTENTIAL LOW CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY FROM KELM THROUGH KITH/KBGM. CONFIDENCE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND FAR SOUTH A BIT MORE IN QUESTION. AT THE
SITES MENTIONED IN NY, IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW THEY SEEM MOST
LIKELY AT THE ELEVATED SITES SO I INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP HERE.
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR BY MID THURSDAY MORNING TO VFR IN THE
VALLEYS, BUT MVFR MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE UP ON THE HILLS. ALSO,
ACROSS THE NY TERMINALS SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FROM MID
THURSDAY MORNING ON.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA...AND LGT OVRNGT
FOG/ST.

SAT-MON...VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY FOG AT KELM.


&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 201840
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
240 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. THIS LOW WILL PASS EASTWARD AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST WITH IMPROVING WEATHER FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS SLOW MOVING SHRA IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION THAT WERE
BACK BUILDING TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER, THE SHRA WERE BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORMISH IN NATURE AS THERE WAS LITTLE CAPE AROUND 200 TO 300
J/KG. THE CAPE WAS ALSO TALL AND SKINNY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
SINCE THE CAPE WAS NOT THAT HIGH THE ACVTY REALLY WASNT BLOSSOMING
ENUF FOR HEAVY RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE NO FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES PLANNED. WE ARE SEEING SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN
ISSUES IN A FEW PLACES AND HAVE COVERED WITH FLOOD ADVISORIES.
THESE SHRA WILL CONT TO WORK E AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROF THAT WAS SUPPORTG THE ABV MENTIONED ACVTY
EXTENDED FROM NEAR SSM SOUTHWARD TO THE ERN OHIO VALLEY. ALL THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THAT A FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH E INTO C
NY AND NRN PA FROM THE ERN OH VLLY AND WEAKEN BY 23 TO 00Z. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE ACVTY TO CONT TO WORK E INTO THIS EVENING. THEN
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY SEEN OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES AND WILL
EXTEND NW TO SE FROM THE ERN LAKES TO NJ BY 08Z TO 09Z AND
SUPPORT RENEWED SHRA AND POTENTIALLY A LITTLE THUNDER LATER
TONIGHT. AGAIN CAPES WILL BE LOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOOD ISSUES BUT POPS WILL BE HIGHER.

FOR THURSDAY...THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL SUPPORT MORE SHRA AND MORE
TSRA AS CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THU THAN TODAY. PLUS THERE
IS A LITTLE MORE SHEAR. BUT SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES ARE BELOW WHAT
WOULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER HISTORICALLY. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG WITH BULK WIND SHEARS BETWEEN 0
AND 6 KM ARND 20 KNOTS. AGAIN PWATS ARE ARND 1.5 INCHES AND
STORMS WON/T BE MOVING THAT FAST AS MBE VECTORS ARE SMALL SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND FILLS AS IT WORKS OVER NY AND PA. GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND A FAIRLY MOIST BNDRY
LAYER...I CAN SEE SOME ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A LITTLE THUNDER
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD WHERE DWPTS
WILL REMAIN HIGHER AND THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL CAPE INTO THE NIGHT. SFC
RDGING WAS BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM NEW ENGLAND AND BEGINS TO DRY
OUT OUR ERN ZONES FROM THE UPPER MOHAWK TO WRN CATSKILLS THU NGT.
HENCE POPS ARE HIGHER TO THE W OF I-81 AND LOWER TO THE E THU NGT.
THIS PATTERN OF INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS A WEAK
IMPULSE DROPS SEWRD. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHRA OR TSRA FRI SO I
HAVE POPS FRI FM SLGHT CHC TO CHC WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST.
SOME ACVTY CUD LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT SO HAVE KEPT SOME RESIDUAL POPS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY.

FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW ENGLAND AND WE
SHUD HAVE FAIR WEATHER WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SAME PTRN THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER CONTS WITH A
TROF OVER NEW ENG AND RDGG TO THE WEST. NEARLY STATIONARY WRM FNT
BNDRY OVER WRN NY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONV...AND KEEP CHANCE
OR SLGT CHANCE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PD. LL SELY FLOW WILL
KEEP COOLER AIR IN THE AREA AND AFTN TEMPS ESP BLO NRML. UPR LOW
SLOWLY DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENG CST ALLOWING A SLOW RETROGRADE OF
THE UPR RDG. THIS IN TURN SHD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL DRYING AND IMPRVG
WX SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HPC GUID SEEMED RSNBL AND WAS FLWD THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING AND MOSTLY VFR WITH EMBEDDED MVFR CIGS ARE PRESENT. EXPECT
FOG FROM LAST NIGHT TO LIFT SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS. IFR VISBYS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE... THUS DECIDED TO KEEP
MENTION OUT ATTM. EMBEDDED THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT ALSO DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT ALSO DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL FROM VFR TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT CLOSE TO 12Z.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WED AFTN-SUN...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA...AND
LGT OVRNGT FOG/ST.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...KAH







000
FXUS61 KBGM 201840
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
240 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. THIS LOW WILL PASS EASTWARD AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST WITH IMPROVING WEATHER FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS SLOW MOVING SHRA IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION THAT WERE
BACK BUILDING TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER, THE SHRA WERE BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORMISH IN NATURE AS THERE WAS LITTLE CAPE AROUND 200 TO 300
J/KG. THE CAPE WAS ALSO TALL AND SKINNY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
SINCE THE CAPE WAS NOT THAT HIGH THE ACVTY REALLY WASNT BLOSSOMING
ENUF FOR HEAVY RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE NO FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES PLANNED. WE ARE SEEING SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN
ISSUES IN A FEW PLACES AND HAVE COVERED WITH FLOOD ADVISORIES.
THESE SHRA WILL CONT TO WORK E AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROF THAT WAS SUPPORTG THE ABV MENTIONED ACVTY
EXTENDED FROM NEAR SSM SOUTHWARD TO THE ERN OHIO VALLEY. ALL THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THAT A FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH E INTO C
NY AND NRN PA FROM THE ERN OH VLLY AND WEAKEN BY 23 TO 00Z. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE ACVTY TO CONT TO WORK E INTO THIS EVENING. THEN
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY SEEN OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES AND WILL
EXTEND NW TO SE FROM THE ERN LAKES TO NJ BY 08Z TO 09Z AND
SUPPORT RENEWED SHRA AND POTENTIALLY A LITTLE THUNDER LATER
TONIGHT. AGAIN CAPES WILL BE LOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOOD ISSUES BUT POPS WILL BE HIGHER.

FOR THURSDAY...THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL SUPPORT MORE SHRA AND MORE
TSRA AS CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THU THAN TODAY. PLUS THERE
IS A LITTLE MORE SHEAR. BUT SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES ARE BELOW WHAT
WOULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER HISTORICALLY. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG WITH BULK WIND SHEARS BETWEEN 0
AND 6 KM ARND 20 KNOTS. AGAIN PWATS ARE ARND 1.5 INCHES AND
STORMS WON/T BE MOVING THAT FAST AS MBE VECTORS ARE SMALL SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND FILLS AS IT WORKS OVER NY AND PA. GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND A FAIRLY MOIST BNDRY
LAYER...I CAN SEE SOME ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A LITTLE THUNDER
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD WHERE DWPTS
WILL REMAIN HIGHER AND THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL CAPE INTO THE NIGHT. SFC
RDGING WAS BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM NEW ENGLAND AND BEGINS TO DRY
OUT OUR ERN ZONES FROM THE UPPER MOHAWK TO WRN CATSKILLS THU NGT.
HENCE POPS ARE HIGHER TO THE W OF I-81 AND LOWER TO THE E THU NGT.
THIS PATTERN OF INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS A WEAK
IMPULSE DROPS SEWRD. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHRA OR TSRA FRI SO I
HAVE POPS FRI FM SLGHT CHC TO CHC WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST.
SOME ACVTY CUD LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT SO HAVE KEPT SOME RESIDUAL POPS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY.

FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW ENGLAND AND WE
SHUD HAVE FAIR WEATHER WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SAME PTRN THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER CONTS WITH A
TROF OVER NEW ENG AND RDGG TO THE WEST. NEARLY STATIONARY WRM FNT
BNDRY OVER WRN NY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONV...AND KEEP CHANCE
OR SLGT CHANCE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PD. LL SELY FLOW WILL
KEEP COOLER AIR IN THE AREA AND AFTN TEMPS ESP BLO NRML. UPR LOW
SLOWLY DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENG CST ALLOWING A SLOW RETROGRADE OF
THE UPR RDG. THIS IN TURN SHD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL DRYING AND IMPRVG
WX SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HPC GUID SEEMED RSNBL AND WAS FLWD THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING AND MOSTLY VFR WITH EMBEDDED MVFR CIGS ARE PRESENT. EXPECT
FOG FROM LAST NIGHT TO LIFT SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS. IFR VISBYS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE... THUS DECIDED TO KEEP
MENTION OUT ATTM. EMBEDDED THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT ALSO DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT ALSO DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL FROM VFR TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT CLOSE TO 12Z.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WED AFTN-SUN...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA...AND
LGT OVRNGT FOG/ST.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...KAH







000
FXUS61 KBGM 201840
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
240 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. THIS LOW WILL PASS EASTWARD AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST WITH IMPROVING WEATHER FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS SLOW MOVING SHRA IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION THAT WERE
BACK BUILDING TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER, THE SHRA WERE BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORMISH IN NATURE AS THERE WAS LITTLE CAPE AROUND 200 TO 300
J/KG. THE CAPE WAS ALSO TALL AND SKINNY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
SINCE THE CAPE WAS NOT THAT HIGH THE ACVTY REALLY WASNT BLOSSOMING
ENUF FOR HEAVY RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE NO FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES PLANNED. WE ARE SEEING SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN
ISSUES IN A FEW PLACES AND HAVE COVERED WITH FLOOD ADVISORIES.
THESE SHRA WILL CONT TO WORK E AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROF THAT WAS SUPPORTG THE ABV MENTIONED ACVTY
EXTENDED FROM NEAR SSM SOUTHWARD TO THE ERN OHIO VALLEY. ALL THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THAT A FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH E INTO C
NY AND NRN PA FROM THE ERN OH VLLY AND WEAKEN BY 23 TO 00Z. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE ACVTY TO CONT TO WORK E INTO THIS EVENING. THEN
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY SEEN OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES AND WILL
EXTEND NW TO SE FROM THE ERN LAKES TO NJ BY 08Z TO 09Z AND
SUPPORT RENEWED SHRA AND POTENTIALLY A LITTLE THUNDER LATER
TONIGHT. AGAIN CAPES WILL BE LOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOOD ISSUES BUT POPS WILL BE HIGHER.

FOR THURSDAY...THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL SUPPORT MORE SHRA AND MORE
TSRA AS CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THU THAN TODAY. PLUS THERE
IS A LITTLE MORE SHEAR. BUT SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES ARE BELOW WHAT
WOULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER HISTORICALLY. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG WITH BULK WIND SHEARS BETWEEN 0
AND 6 KM ARND 20 KNOTS. AGAIN PWATS ARE ARND 1.5 INCHES AND
STORMS WON/T BE MOVING THAT FAST AS MBE VECTORS ARE SMALL SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND FILLS AS IT WORKS OVER NY AND PA. GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND A FAIRLY MOIST BNDRY
LAYER...I CAN SEE SOME ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A LITTLE THUNDER
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD WHERE DWPTS
WILL REMAIN HIGHER AND THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL CAPE INTO THE NIGHT. SFC
RDGING WAS BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM NEW ENGLAND AND BEGINS TO DRY
OUT OUR ERN ZONES FROM THE UPPER MOHAWK TO WRN CATSKILLS THU NGT.
HENCE POPS ARE HIGHER TO THE W OF I-81 AND LOWER TO THE E THU NGT.
THIS PATTERN OF INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS A WEAK
IMPULSE DROPS SEWRD. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHRA OR TSRA FRI SO I
HAVE POPS FRI FM SLGHT CHC TO CHC WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST.
SOME ACVTY CUD LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT SO HAVE KEPT SOME RESIDUAL POPS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY.

FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW ENGLAND AND WE
SHUD HAVE FAIR WEATHER WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SAME PTRN THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER CONTS WITH A
TROF OVER NEW ENG AND RDGG TO THE WEST. NEARLY STATIONARY WRM FNT
BNDRY OVER WRN NY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONV...AND KEEP CHANCE
OR SLGT CHANCE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PD. LL SELY FLOW WILL
KEEP COOLER AIR IN THE AREA AND AFTN TEMPS ESP BLO NRML. UPR LOW
SLOWLY DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENG CST ALLOWING A SLOW RETROGRADE OF
THE UPR RDG. THIS IN TURN SHD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL DRYING AND IMPRVG
WX SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HPC GUID SEEMED RSNBL AND WAS FLWD THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING AND MOSTLY VFR WITH EMBEDDED MVFR CIGS ARE PRESENT. EXPECT
FOG FROM LAST NIGHT TO LIFT SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS. IFR VISBYS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE... THUS DECIDED TO KEEP
MENTION OUT ATTM. EMBEDDED THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT ALSO DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT ALSO DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL FROM VFR TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT CLOSE TO 12Z.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WED AFTN-SUN...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA...AND
LGT OVRNGT FOG/ST.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...KAH







000
FXUS61 KBGM 201840
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
240 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION. THIS LOW WILL PASS EASTWARD AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST WITH IMPROVING WEATHER FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS SLOW MOVING SHRA IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION THAT WERE
BACK BUILDING TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER, THE SHRA WERE BECOMING MORE
STRATIFORMISH IN NATURE AS THERE WAS LITTLE CAPE AROUND 200 TO 300
J/KG. THE CAPE WAS ALSO TALL AND SKINNY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
SINCE THE CAPE WAS NOT THAT HIGH THE ACVTY REALLY WASNT BLOSSOMING
ENUF FOR HEAVY RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE NO FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES PLANNED. WE ARE SEEING SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN
ISSUES IN A FEW PLACES AND HAVE COVERED WITH FLOOD ADVISORIES.
THESE SHRA WILL CONT TO WORK E AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROF THAT WAS SUPPORTG THE ABV MENTIONED ACVTY
EXTENDED FROM NEAR SSM SOUTHWARD TO THE ERN OHIO VALLEY. ALL THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THAT A FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH E INTO C
NY AND NRN PA FROM THE ERN OH VLLY AND WEAKEN BY 23 TO 00Z. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE ACVTY TO CONT TO WORK E INTO THIS EVENING. THEN
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY SEEN OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES AND WILL
EXTEND NW TO SE FROM THE ERN LAKES TO NJ BY 08Z TO 09Z AND
SUPPORT RENEWED SHRA AND POTENTIALLY A LITTLE THUNDER LATER
TONIGHT. AGAIN CAPES WILL BE LOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOOD ISSUES BUT POPS WILL BE HIGHER.

FOR THURSDAY...THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL SUPPORT MORE SHRA AND MORE
TSRA AS CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THU THAN TODAY. PLUS THERE
IS A LITTLE MORE SHEAR. BUT SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES ARE BELOW WHAT
WOULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER HISTORICALLY. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG WITH BULK WIND SHEARS BETWEEN 0
AND 6 KM ARND 20 KNOTS. AGAIN PWATS ARE ARND 1.5 INCHES AND
STORMS WON/T BE MOVING THAT FAST AS MBE VECTORS ARE SMALL SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN LAKES
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND FILLS AS IT WORKS OVER NY AND PA. GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE AND A FAIRLY MOIST BNDRY
LAYER...I CAN SEE SOME ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND EVEN A LITTLE THUNDER
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD WHERE DWPTS
WILL REMAIN HIGHER AND THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL CAPE INTO THE NIGHT. SFC
RDGING WAS BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM NEW ENGLAND AND BEGINS TO DRY
OUT OUR ERN ZONES FROM THE UPPER MOHAWK TO WRN CATSKILLS THU NGT.
HENCE POPS ARE HIGHER TO THE W OF I-81 AND LOWER TO THE E THU NGT.
THIS PATTERN OF INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS A WEAK
IMPULSE DROPS SEWRD. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHRA OR TSRA FRI SO I
HAVE POPS FRI FM SLGHT CHC TO CHC WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST.
SOME ACVTY CUD LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT SO HAVE KEPT SOME RESIDUAL POPS
IN THE FORECAST EARLY.

FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NEW ENGLAND AND WE
SHUD HAVE FAIR WEATHER WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SAME PTRN THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER CONTS WITH A
TROF OVER NEW ENG AND RDGG TO THE WEST. NEARLY STATIONARY WRM FNT
BNDRY OVER WRN NY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONV...AND KEEP CHANCE
OR SLGT CHANCE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PD. LL SELY FLOW WILL
KEEP COOLER AIR IN THE AREA AND AFTN TEMPS ESP BLO NRML. UPR LOW
SLOWLY DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENG CST ALLOWING A SLOW RETROGRADE OF
THE UPR RDG. THIS IN TURN SHD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL DRYING AND IMPRVG
WX SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HPC GUID SEEMED RSNBL AND WAS FLWD THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING AND MOSTLY VFR WITH EMBEDDED MVFR CIGS ARE PRESENT. EXPECT
FOG FROM LAST NIGHT TO LIFT SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS. IFR VISBYS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE... THUS DECIDED TO KEEP
MENTION OUT ATTM. EMBEDDED THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT ALSO DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT ALSO DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL FROM VFR TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT CLOSE TO 12Z.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WED AFTN-SUN...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA...AND
LGT OVRNGT FOG/ST.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...KAH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 201822
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
222 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MUCH OF THOSE
TWO DAYS WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
18Z REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
LAKE HURON...WITH ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT
TODAY...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SOME SEMBLANCE OF A
BROKEN SWATH OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER IS BEGINNING TO TAKE
SHAPE FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK...
WITHIN A REGION OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND JUST AHEAD OF A MODEST
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST...ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED RETURNS ARE FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...EASTERN
LAKE ERIE...AND NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THE PRESENT TIME.

WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTENING...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
AND THE BULK OF THE FORCING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED. MEANWHILE TO THE WEST OF THIS...ANY
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
AFTERNOON.

WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND WEAK WIND FIELDS IN PLACE ALONG
WITH THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE
THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ANY STORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS...WHILE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY REMAIN VERY LOW.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS TODAY...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGH TEMPS RANGING
BETWEEN THE MID 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 60S.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT AND
FOCUSING BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LATE DAY INSTABILITY...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LIFT
OF THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WNY THIS EVENING. BY LATE OVERNIGHT THE BULK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOWARDS THE EAST IN PROXIMITY TO
THE STALLING WARM FRONT...WITH JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WNY
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL PUSH TO NORMAL...OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS BE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
THE REGION...WITH 80S MOST LIKELY TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL BE
FOUND. TONIGHT A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
60S WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT FLOW FEATURING A PSEUDO REX BLOCK OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BREAK DOWN AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG H25
WINDS RACING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND KICK OUT THE DOWNSTREAM CYCLONE. A BURGEONING RIDGE WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
OVER OUR REGION. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL INTO AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
MODERATELY HIGH HUMIDITY.

THE ILL DEFINED REMNANTS OF AN H5 LOW IN THE VCNTY OF GEORGIAN BAY
THURSDAY MORNING WILL TRACK TO THE EAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTION
WILL DRAG ONE LAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BEING FOUND
EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING NEAR THE SFC
FRONT WILL BE FOUND. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 WILL BE A LITTLE
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...BUT LIGHT STEERING WINDS EAST OF
ROCHESTER WILL PERSIST...SO THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
SOME SLOW MOVING MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WHILE THE ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT...A WARM AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS (C) SHOULD ENABLE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. THE MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
WARMER AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AFTER OUR RECENT STRETCH OF FALL LIKE
WEATHER.

THE SHORTWAVE AND SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE THE
LEFTOVER SHOWERS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF NIGHT
WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES LOWER (UP 50S-LOW 60S) THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...AN INTERESTING SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE TO OUR
WEST. AN AMPLIFYING H5 RIDGE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND THIS WILL OVERLAY AN AREA OF
WEAKNESS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SHARPEN
A THERMAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE ALIGNED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS
IN THE VCNTY OF THIS BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST...OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD
BE MAINLY RAIN FREE. SINCE A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION THOUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...PARTICULAR IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL THUS
MAINTAIN LOW CHC POPS FROM CONTINUITY.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE A STRONG SFC
HIGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
NEW YORK. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A THERMAL BOUNDARY IN
PLACE FROM LAKE HURON TO LAKE ERIE AND WRN PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE BULK
OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD THUS BE RAIN FREE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER AS A 593DM H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE VCNTY OF CAPE COD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CLOSE TO 80 IN MANY AREAS MONDAY...AND THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 60.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH THURSDAY...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST TO LAKE ONTARIO AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN...WHILE PUSHING AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK NORTHEASTWARD
INTO LAKE ONTARIO AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED BRIEF MVFR/IFR WILL
PERIODICALLY AFFECT AREAS OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHILE MUCH
MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE BEHIND IT.

OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...SAVE
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WHEN SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR KBUF/KIAG...AND SOME MORE GENERAL
MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING OF OUR MOIST AIRMASS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES THIS MORNING TO
NEAR THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING WHERE IT WILL
DISSIPATE IN PLACE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY
PASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR/THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 201822
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
222 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MUCH OF THOSE
TWO DAYS WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
18Z REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
LAKE HURON...WITH ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT
TODAY...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SOME SEMBLANCE OF A
BROKEN SWATH OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER IS BEGINNING TO TAKE
SHAPE FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK...
WITHIN A REGION OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND JUST AHEAD OF A MODEST
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST...ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED RETURNS ARE FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...EASTERN
LAKE ERIE...AND NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THE PRESENT TIME.

WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTENING...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
AND THE BULK OF THE FORCING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED. MEANWHILE TO THE WEST OF THIS...ANY
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
AFTERNOON.

WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND WEAK WIND FIELDS IN PLACE ALONG
WITH THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE
THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ANY STORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS...WHILE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY REMAIN VERY LOW.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS TODAY...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGH TEMPS RANGING
BETWEEN THE MID 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 60S.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT AND
FOCUSING BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LATE DAY INSTABILITY...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LIFT
OF THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WNY THIS EVENING. BY LATE OVERNIGHT THE BULK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOWARDS THE EAST IN PROXIMITY TO
THE STALLING WARM FRONT...WITH JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WNY
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL PUSH TO NORMAL...OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS BE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
THE REGION...WITH 80S MOST LIKELY TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL BE
FOUND. TONIGHT A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
60S WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT FLOW FEATURING A PSEUDO REX BLOCK OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BREAK DOWN AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG H25
WINDS RACING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND KICK OUT THE DOWNSTREAM CYCLONE. A BURGEONING RIDGE WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
OVER OUR REGION. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL INTO AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
MODERATELY HIGH HUMIDITY.

THE ILL DEFINED REMNANTS OF AN H5 LOW IN THE VCNTY OF GEORGIAN BAY
THURSDAY MORNING WILL TRACK TO THE EAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTION
WILL DRAG ONE LAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BEING FOUND
EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING NEAR THE SFC
FRONT WILL BE FOUND. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 WILL BE A LITTLE
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...BUT LIGHT STEERING WINDS EAST OF
ROCHESTER WILL PERSIST...SO THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
SOME SLOW MOVING MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WHILE THE ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT...A WARM AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS (C) SHOULD ENABLE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. THE MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
WARMER AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AFTER OUR RECENT STRETCH OF FALL LIKE
WEATHER.

THE SHORTWAVE AND SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE THE
LEFTOVER SHOWERS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF NIGHT
WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES LOWER (UP 50S-LOW 60S) THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...AN INTERESTING SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE TO OUR
WEST. AN AMPLIFYING H5 RIDGE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND THIS WILL OVERLAY AN AREA OF
WEAKNESS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SHARPEN
A THERMAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE ALIGNED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS
IN THE VCNTY OF THIS BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST...OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD
BE MAINLY RAIN FREE. SINCE A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION THOUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...PARTICULAR IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL THUS
MAINTAIN LOW CHC POPS FROM CONTINUITY.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE A STRONG SFC
HIGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
NEW YORK. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A THERMAL BOUNDARY IN
PLACE FROM LAKE HURON TO LAKE ERIE AND WRN PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE BULK
OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD THUS BE RAIN FREE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER AS A 593DM H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE VCNTY OF CAPE COD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CLOSE TO 80 IN MANY AREAS MONDAY...AND THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 60.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH THURSDAY...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST TO LAKE ONTARIO AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN...WHILE PUSHING AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK NORTHEASTWARD
INTO LAKE ONTARIO AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED BRIEF MVFR/IFR WILL
PERIODICALLY AFFECT AREAS OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHILE MUCH
MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE BEHIND IT.

OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...SAVE
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WHEN SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR KBUF/KIAG...AND SOME MORE GENERAL
MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING OF OUR MOIST AIRMASS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES THIS MORNING TO
NEAR THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING WHERE IT WILL
DISSIPATE IN PLACE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY
PASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 201753
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
153 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH NOON UPDATE. JUST TWEAKED TEMPS/TDS
AND REMOVED POPS FROM ORANGE CO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

DEVELOPING SE FLOW TODAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE HANGING
ON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AREAS...MOST OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE PTCLDY AND DRY. ACROSS THE FAR WRN/NWRN FRINGE...FALLING
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE NAM COULD
SPRING SOME SHRA/TSTMS. MAIN THREAT STILL W OF THE CWA WITH THE
EMBEDDED SHRTWV NOT ARRIVING TIL ABOUT 00Z.

TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT OR JUST BLW CLIMO. FCST IS CLOSE TO THE GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY WANES WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A LOSS OF
SFC HEATING. THEREFORE THE SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MINIMAL
EFFECT ATTM AND PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SHRA AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA
THIS EVE/TNGT. ANY TSTMS WOULD NEED TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE
STABLE MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN THE
FCST FOR TNGT.

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER THE UP OF MI
WILL DROP HEIGHTS ON THU AND ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER SHRA OR TSTMS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH A MARINE STRATUS
DECK LIKELY PENETRATING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. INCLUDED TSTMS ONLY
ON THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SHRA
ELSEWHERE. WHERE THE INSTABILITY DOES MATERIALIZE...THE SETUP IS
RIPE FOR MULTICELLULAR HVY RAINERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND PW/S
ABOUT 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TEMPS COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SET OFF SOME
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS. SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST UNDER 1000
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A LACK OF ANY
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM...THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.

OMEGA BLOCK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE. AN EXTENDED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EVEN IN THE NYC METRO REGION.

THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SCT CU 040-050 MAINLY NORTH
OF THE NY METRO OVER THE HILLIER TERRAIN.

CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL PA AND WESTERN NY WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING
AS IT APPROACHES THE PA/NJ BOARDER TOWARDS 03Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD REACH THE NY METRO TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. THESE ARE NOT INCLUDED
IN TAFS AS THE PROBABILITY OF THIS IS ONLY 30% AT THIS TIME AND
THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT FLIGHT CATEGORY.

THURSDAY MORNING COULD START OFF WITH SOME CIGS AROUND 030...THESE
SHOULD RISE SLIGHTLY TO AT LEAST 035-040 BY AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS THIS AFTN. SPEED
AVERAGE JUST BELOW 10 KT...THOUGH EXPECT OCNL 10-12 KT DURING
FOR THE LATE AFTN DEPARTURE BANK.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY 20 DEGREES OF THE
FCST MEAN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION BEING
30-40 DEGREES RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU AFTN-NGT...VFR. SCATTERED TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE NY
METRO.
.FRI-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THU. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRI THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GUSTS ON
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE...AND SLIGHTLY LESS ON
SUNDAY. GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AS OF NOW. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU...MAINLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NJ AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HVY RAIN...HOWEVER BASIN AVE PCPN OF LESS THAN 1/4
INCH IS EXPECTED ATTM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM ANY OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/PICCA/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TONGUE/PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP








000
FXUS61 KOKX 201753
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
153 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH NOON UPDATE. JUST TWEAKED TEMPS/TDS
AND REMOVED POPS FROM ORANGE CO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

DEVELOPING SE FLOW TODAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE HANGING
ON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AREAS...MOST OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE PTCLDY AND DRY. ACROSS THE FAR WRN/NWRN FRINGE...FALLING
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE NAM COULD
SPRING SOME SHRA/TSTMS. MAIN THREAT STILL W OF THE CWA WITH THE
EMBEDDED SHRTWV NOT ARRIVING TIL ABOUT 00Z.

TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT OR JUST BLW CLIMO. FCST IS CLOSE TO THE GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY WANES WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A LOSS OF
SFC HEATING. THEREFORE THE SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MINIMAL
EFFECT ATTM AND PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SHRA AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA
THIS EVE/TNGT. ANY TSTMS WOULD NEED TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE
STABLE MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN THE
FCST FOR TNGT.

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER THE UP OF MI
WILL DROP HEIGHTS ON THU AND ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER SHRA OR TSTMS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH A MARINE STRATUS
DECK LIKELY PENETRATING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. INCLUDED TSTMS ONLY
ON THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SHRA
ELSEWHERE. WHERE THE INSTABILITY DOES MATERIALIZE...THE SETUP IS
RIPE FOR MULTICELLULAR HVY RAINERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND PW/S
ABOUT 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TEMPS COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SET OFF SOME
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS. SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST UNDER 1000
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A LACK OF ANY
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM...THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.

OMEGA BLOCK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE. AN EXTENDED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EVEN IN THE NYC METRO REGION.

THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SCT CU 040-050 MAINLY NORTH
OF THE NY METRO OVER THE HILLIER TERRAIN.

CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL PA AND WESTERN NY WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING
AS IT APPROACHES THE PA/NJ BOARDER TOWARDS 03Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD REACH THE NY METRO TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. THESE ARE NOT INCLUDED
IN TAFS AS THE PROBABILITY OF THIS IS ONLY 30% AT THIS TIME AND
THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT FLIGHT CATEGORY.

THURSDAY MORNING COULD START OFF WITH SOME CIGS AROUND 030...THESE
SHOULD RISE SLIGHTLY TO AT LEAST 035-040 BY AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS THIS AFTN. SPEED
AVERAGE JUST BELOW 10 KT...THOUGH EXPECT OCNL 10-12 KT DURING
FOR THE LATE AFTN DEPARTURE BANK.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY 20 DEGREES OF THE
FCST MEAN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION BEING
30-40 DEGREES RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU AFTN-NGT...VFR. SCATTERED TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE NY
METRO.
.FRI-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THU. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRI THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GUSTS ON
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE...AND SLIGHTLY LESS ON
SUNDAY. GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AS OF NOW. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU...MAINLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NJ AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HVY RAIN...HOWEVER BASIN AVE PCPN OF LESS THAN 1/4
INCH IS EXPECTED ATTM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM ANY OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/PICCA/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TONGUE/PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP









000
FXUS61 KBTV 201752
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
152 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE 70S ACROSS
VT HAVE RAISED HIGHS AGAIN BY A DEGREE OR TWO WITH THIS UPDATE.

CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED WEST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WITH REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR SYR DOWN THROUGH
CENTRAL PA. PER RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE...THAT LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL SET ON NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
TRAVERSES VERY SLOWLY NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD. LAPS CAPES IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK CURRENTLY BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG SO THERE STILL COULD BE
SOME THUNDER ONCE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS. WEAK FLOW PRODUCING SLOW
STORM MOTIONS...TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILE AND PROGGED PWS BETWEEN
1.0-1.5" SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWNPOURS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. VT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES RAIN SHOWERS NOT
BEGINNING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. THINK
POPS REFLECT THIS PRETTY WELL AT THIS POINT AND DIDN`T MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THOSE WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT IN BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH ACROSS VERMONT
TONIGHT...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EASTWARD. THUS...HAVE A SHARP POP GRADIENT FROM THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. THE
LOWEST POPS OVER EASTERN VERMONT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. MODELS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SHOWERS INTO VERMONT ON THURSDAY.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS VERMONT ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT
IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. ON
FRIDAY...UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC. THUS...DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY. HAVE JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY MARKS THE START
OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL FEATURE A
BLOCKING TYPE SCENARIO DEVELOPING ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. BOTH
ECMWF/GFS SHOWS A DEVELOPING CLOSED 5H CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND BUILDING HGHT RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA WL PUSH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS INTO OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C.
THESE TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S ACRS OUR REGION WITH
THIS COOLER MARITIME AIR WL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACTS ON EASTERN
VT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW. SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH BUILDING HGHTS ALOFT. THIS
WL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB...WITH BEST THERMAL RIDGE AND
WARMEST LLVL TEMPS ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS VERY WARM AIR MASS...HAS DIFFICULTIES ADVECTING INTO OUR
CWA...GIVEN PLACEMENT OF SFC RIDGE AND NW FLW ALOFT...BUT SHOULD
BY THE MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WL WARM BTWN
12-14C BY NEXT WEDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L80S
WARMER VALLEYS. WL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY AS BEST ULVL SUPPORT AND
MID LVL MOISTURE IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY....CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME
HEATING CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD BE FORMING
SOON (SO HAVE COVERED SLK WITH VCSH THE NEXT FEW HOURS). WATCHING
SLOW MOVING AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND AFFECT TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KMSS & KSLK. HARD TO
SPECIFICALLY PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE AT EXACT
TIMES, SO IN GENERAL THE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SPECIFICS IN
THE FORECAST IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT. HAVE INCLUDED THE VCSH/VCTS.
TOOK A STAB AT A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
OCCURRING AFTER 00Z FOR THE NORTHERN NEW YORK LOCATIONS WITH
PREDOMINANTE -SHRA IN THE TAFS. FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST, THE SHOWERS WON`T BE GETTING EVEN CLOSE ENOUGH UNTIL
WELL AFTER 00Z AND PROBABLY WON`T BE AS CONCENTRATED. THUS VCSH
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AGAIN HITS MONTPELIER
(MPV) HARD WITH LIFR CONDITIONS IN BOTH CEILING AND VISIBILITY
WITH DENSE FOG. THINK IT WILL BE MORE STRATUS AND LESS FOG
TONIGHT, BUT THE END RESULT COULD BE THE SAME WITH A CLOUD DECK
JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE GROUND. FOR THURSDAY, THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW OFF TO OUR WEST WILL
BE MORE OR LESS OVER THE AREA. KEPT IT VFR FOR VERMONT SIDE,
THOUGH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY BE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THUR TO 00Z SAT...AREAS OF MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS.

00Z SAT ONWARD...VFR, EXCEPT IFR IN LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG
(PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NASH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 201752
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
152 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE 70S ACROSS
VT HAVE RAISED HIGHS AGAIN BY A DEGREE OR TWO WITH THIS UPDATE.

CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED WEST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WITH REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR SYR DOWN THROUGH
CENTRAL PA. PER RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE...THAT LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL SET ON NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
TRAVERSES VERY SLOWLY NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD. LAPS CAPES IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK CURRENTLY BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG SO THERE STILL COULD BE
SOME THUNDER ONCE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS. WEAK FLOW PRODUCING SLOW
STORM MOTIONS...TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILE AND PROGGED PWS BETWEEN
1.0-1.5" SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWNPOURS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. VT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES RAIN SHOWERS NOT
BEGINNING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. THINK
POPS REFLECT THIS PRETTY WELL AT THIS POINT AND DIDN`T MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THOSE WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT IN BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH ACROSS VERMONT
TONIGHT...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EASTWARD. THUS...HAVE A SHARP POP GRADIENT FROM THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. THE
LOWEST POPS OVER EASTERN VERMONT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. MODELS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SHOWERS INTO VERMONT ON THURSDAY.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS VERMONT ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT
IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. ON
FRIDAY...UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC. THUS...DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY. HAVE JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY MARKS THE START
OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL FEATURE A
BLOCKING TYPE SCENARIO DEVELOPING ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. BOTH
ECMWF/GFS SHOWS A DEVELOPING CLOSED 5H CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND BUILDING HGHT RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA WL PUSH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS INTO OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C.
THESE TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S ACRS OUR REGION WITH
THIS COOLER MARITIME AIR WL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACTS ON EASTERN
VT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW. SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH BUILDING HGHTS ALOFT. THIS
WL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB...WITH BEST THERMAL RIDGE AND
WARMEST LLVL TEMPS ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS VERY WARM AIR MASS...HAS DIFFICULTIES ADVECTING INTO OUR
CWA...GIVEN PLACEMENT OF SFC RIDGE AND NW FLW ALOFT...BUT SHOULD
BY THE MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WL WARM BTWN
12-14C BY NEXT WEDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L80S
WARMER VALLEYS. WL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY AS BEST ULVL SUPPORT AND
MID LVL MOISTURE IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY....CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME
HEATING CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD BE FORMING
SOON (SO HAVE COVERED SLK WITH VCSH THE NEXT FEW HOURS). WATCHING
SLOW MOVING AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND AFFECT TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KMSS & KSLK. HARD TO
SPECIFICALLY PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE AT EXACT
TIMES, SO IN GENERAL THE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SPECIFICS IN
THE FORECAST IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT. HAVE INCLUDED THE VCSH/VCTS.
TOOK A STAB AT A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
OCCURRING AFTER 00Z FOR THE NORTHERN NEW YORK LOCATIONS WITH
PREDOMINANTE -SHRA IN THE TAFS. FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST, THE SHOWERS WON`T BE GETTING EVEN CLOSE ENOUGH UNTIL
WELL AFTER 00Z AND PROBABLY WON`T BE AS CONCENTRATED. THUS VCSH
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AGAIN HITS MONTPELIER
(MPV) HARD WITH LIFR CONDITIONS IN BOTH CEILING AND VISIBILITY
WITH DENSE FOG. THINK IT WILL BE MORE STRATUS AND LESS FOG
TONIGHT, BUT THE END RESULT COULD BE THE SAME WITH A CLOUD DECK
JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE GROUND. FOR THURSDAY, THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW OFF TO OUR WEST WILL
BE MORE OR LESS OVER THE AREA. KEPT IT VFR FOR VERMONT SIDE,
THOUGH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY BE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THUR TO 00Z SAT...AREAS OF MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS.

00Z SAT ONWARD...VFR, EXCEPT IFR IN LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG
(PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NASH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 201752
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
152 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE 70S ACROSS
VT HAVE RAISED HIGHS AGAIN BY A DEGREE OR TWO WITH THIS UPDATE.

CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED WEST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WITH REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR SYR DOWN THROUGH
CENTRAL PA. PER RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE...THAT LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL SET ON NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
TRAVERSES VERY SLOWLY NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD. LAPS CAPES IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK CURRENTLY BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG SO THERE STILL COULD BE
SOME THUNDER ONCE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS. WEAK FLOW PRODUCING SLOW
STORM MOTIONS...TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILE AND PROGGED PWS BETWEEN
1.0-1.5" SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWNPOURS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. VT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES RAIN SHOWERS NOT
BEGINNING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. THINK
POPS REFLECT THIS PRETTY WELL AT THIS POINT AND DIDN`T MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THOSE WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT IN BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH ACROSS VERMONT
TONIGHT...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EASTWARD. THUS...HAVE A SHARP POP GRADIENT FROM THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. THE
LOWEST POPS OVER EASTERN VERMONT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. MODELS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SHOWERS INTO VERMONT ON THURSDAY.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS VERMONT ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT
IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. ON
FRIDAY...UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC. THUS...DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY. HAVE JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY MARKS THE START
OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL FEATURE A
BLOCKING TYPE SCENARIO DEVELOPING ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. BOTH
ECMWF/GFS SHOWS A DEVELOPING CLOSED 5H CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND BUILDING HGHT RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA WL PUSH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS INTO OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C.
THESE TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S ACRS OUR REGION WITH
THIS COOLER MARITIME AIR WL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACTS ON EASTERN
VT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW. SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH BUILDING HGHTS ALOFT. THIS
WL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB...WITH BEST THERMAL RIDGE AND
WARMEST LLVL TEMPS ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS VERY WARM AIR MASS...HAS DIFFICULTIES ADVECTING INTO OUR
CWA...GIVEN PLACEMENT OF SFC RIDGE AND NW FLW ALOFT...BUT SHOULD
BY THE MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WL WARM BTWN
12-14C BY NEXT WEDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L80S
WARMER VALLEYS. WL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY AS BEST ULVL SUPPORT AND
MID LVL MOISTURE IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY....CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME
HEATING CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD BE FORMING
SOON (SO HAVE COVERED SLK WITH VCSH THE NEXT FEW HOURS). WATCHING
SLOW MOVING AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND AFFECT TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KMSS & KSLK. HARD TO
SPECIFICALLY PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE AT EXACT
TIMES, SO IN GENERAL THE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SPECIFICS IN
THE FORECAST IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT. HAVE INCLUDED THE VCSH/VCTS.
TOOK A STAB AT A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
OCCURRING AFTER 00Z FOR THE NORTHERN NEW YORK LOCATIONS WITH
PREDOMINANTE -SHRA IN THE TAFS. FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST, THE SHOWERS WON`T BE GETTING EVEN CLOSE ENOUGH UNTIL
WELL AFTER 00Z AND PROBABLY WON`T BE AS CONCENTRATED. THUS VCSH
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AGAIN HITS MONTPELIER
(MPV) HARD WITH LIFR CONDITIONS IN BOTH CEILING AND VISIBILITY
WITH DENSE FOG. THINK IT WILL BE MORE STRATUS AND LESS FOG
TONIGHT, BUT THE END RESULT COULD BE THE SAME WITH A CLOUD DECK
JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE GROUND. FOR THURSDAY, THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW OFF TO OUR WEST WILL
BE MORE OR LESS OVER THE AREA. KEPT IT VFR FOR VERMONT SIDE,
THOUGH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY BE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THUR TO 00Z SAT...AREAS OF MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS.

00Z SAT ONWARD...VFR, EXCEPT IFR IN LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG
(PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NASH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 201752
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
152 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE 70S ACROSS
VT HAVE RAISED HIGHS AGAIN BY A DEGREE OR TWO WITH THIS UPDATE.

CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED WEST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WITH REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR SYR DOWN THROUGH
CENTRAL PA. PER RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE...THAT LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL SET ON NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
TRAVERSES VERY SLOWLY NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD. LAPS CAPES IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK CURRENTLY BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG SO THERE STILL COULD BE
SOME THUNDER ONCE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS. WEAK FLOW PRODUCING SLOW
STORM MOTIONS...TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILE AND PROGGED PWS BETWEEN
1.0-1.5" SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWNPOURS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. VT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES RAIN SHOWERS NOT
BEGINNING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. THINK
POPS REFLECT THIS PRETTY WELL AT THIS POINT AND DIDN`T MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THOSE WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT IN BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH ACROSS VERMONT
TONIGHT...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EASTWARD. THUS...HAVE A SHARP POP GRADIENT FROM THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. THE
LOWEST POPS OVER EASTERN VERMONT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. MODELS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SHOWERS INTO VERMONT ON THURSDAY.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS VERMONT ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT
IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. ON
FRIDAY...UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC. THUS...DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY. HAVE JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY MARKS THE START
OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL FEATURE A
BLOCKING TYPE SCENARIO DEVELOPING ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. BOTH
ECMWF/GFS SHOWS A DEVELOPING CLOSED 5H CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND BUILDING HGHT RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA WL PUSH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS INTO OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C.
THESE TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S ACRS OUR REGION WITH
THIS COOLER MARITIME AIR WL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACTS ON EASTERN
VT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW. SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH BUILDING HGHTS ALOFT. THIS
WL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB...WITH BEST THERMAL RIDGE AND
WARMEST LLVL TEMPS ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS VERY WARM AIR MASS...HAS DIFFICULTIES ADVECTING INTO OUR
CWA...GIVEN PLACEMENT OF SFC RIDGE AND NW FLW ALOFT...BUT SHOULD
BY THE MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WL WARM BTWN
12-14C BY NEXT WEDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L80S
WARMER VALLEYS. WL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY AS BEST ULVL SUPPORT AND
MID LVL MOISTURE IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY....CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME
HEATING CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD BE FORMING
SOON (SO HAVE COVERED SLK WITH VCSH THE NEXT FEW HOURS). WATCHING
SLOW MOVING AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND AFFECT TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KMSS & KSLK. HARD TO
SPECIFICALLY PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE AT EXACT
TIMES, SO IN GENERAL THE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SPECIFICS IN
THE FORECAST IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT. HAVE INCLUDED THE VCSH/VCTS.
TOOK A STAB AT A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
OCCURRING AFTER 00Z FOR THE NORTHERN NEW YORK LOCATIONS WITH
PREDOMINANTE -SHRA IN THE TAFS. FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST, THE SHOWERS WON`T BE GETTING EVEN CLOSE ENOUGH UNTIL
WELL AFTER 00Z AND PROBABLY WON`T BE AS CONCENTRATED. THUS VCSH
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AGAIN HITS MONTPELIER
(MPV) HARD WITH LIFR CONDITIONS IN BOTH CEILING AND VISIBILITY
WITH DENSE FOG. THINK IT WILL BE MORE STRATUS AND LESS FOG
TONIGHT, BUT THE END RESULT COULD BE THE SAME WITH A CLOUD DECK
JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE GROUND. FOR THURSDAY, THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW OFF TO OUR WEST WILL
BE MORE OR LESS OVER THE AREA. KEPT IT VFR FOR VERMONT SIDE,
THOUGH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY BE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THUR TO 00Z SAT...AREAS OF MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS.

00Z SAT ONWARD...VFR, EXCEPT IFR IN LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG
(PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NASH








000
FXUS61 KALY 201722
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTHEAST...IT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 1230 PM EDT...STILL NO CONVECTION ANYWHERE IN OUR AREA. ACTUALLY
WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH SOME LEFTOVER STRATUS CLOUDS WHICH ARE
EITHER SLOWLY BURNING OFF OR BECOME CU.

DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT UP INTO THE 60S SO THERE IS SOME MOISTURE TO
SPAWN A RANDOM THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. FURTHER EAST...WE ARE CAPPED SO ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
NOT HAPPEN UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WHERE CAPES COULD CLIMB TO NEAR 1000
J/KG BY DAY/S END. THE WIND FIELDS ARE WEAK AND SO ARE THE LAPSE
RATES SO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST MADE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE CLOUD COVER AND POPS (TRIMMING THEM A LITTLE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON). OTHERWISE THE ON GOING FORECAST LOOKED IN GREAT SHAPE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FEATURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES OFF
THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE FLOW
AROUND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WESTWARD...AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWERING TO ONLY 20 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ERN QUEBEC...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND LASTING
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A REX TYPE BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL
QUEBEC...AND DOWNSTREAM OF JAMES BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS
UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
NEAR THE CATSKILLS FRIDAY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY
DRY.  THE BLOCKING RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON SATURDAY WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND NEW BRUNSWICK.  H850
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW...SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF BEFORE NOONTIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN
FROM NEW BRUNSWICK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW FORMS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.  OUR FCST AREA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF AND A BROADER HIGH
AMPLITUDE H500 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  THE H500 RIDGE
ACTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SE CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS/WPC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO
DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S AND PERHAPS SOME L80S OVER
THE VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK /TUESDAY/.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE
REGION WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST....AND SOME
MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY KICK
OFF A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL FAIR AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO DOMINATE INTO
THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT IS APPROACHING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SCATTERED/BROKEN CUMULUS ABOVE 3500 FEET AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER
23Z. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST AT ALL THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 23Z-02Z THURSDAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL/WESTERN NY IS SLOWLY TRACKING EAST AND IS
TIMED TO REACH THE HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE TAF SITES...ASSOCIATED
WITH MVFR/VFR CEILINGS ABD VISIBILITIES WILL BE AROUND OR JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE PROB 30 ARE INDICATED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
IN COVERAGE AND TIMING. THE TIMING OF THE END OF THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS IN QUESTION...SO INDICATING MVFR IN FOG
AND CEILINGS 11Z-14Z...WITH VCSH...THEN VFR VISIBILITIES BUT
CONTINUED MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 14Z-15Z.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
TONIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND
15 MPH. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE
TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 201722
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTHEAST...IT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 1230 PM EDT...STILL NO CONVECTION ANYWHERE IN OUR AREA. ACTUALLY
WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH SOME LEFTOVER STRATUS CLOUDS WHICH ARE
EITHER SLOWLY BURNING OFF OR BECOME CU.

DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT UP INTO THE 60S SO THERE IS SOME MOISTURE TO
SPAWN A RANDOM THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. FURTHER EAST...WE ARE CAPPED SO ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
NOT HAPPEN UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WHERE CAPES COULD CLIMB TO NEAR 1000
J/KG BY DAY/S END. THE WIND FIELDS ARE WEAK AND SO ARE THE LAPSE
RATES SO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST MADE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE CLOUD COVER AND POPS (TRIMMING THEM A LITTLE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON). OTHERWISE THE ON GOING FORECAST LOOKED IN GREAT SHAPE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FEATURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES OFF
THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE FLOW
AROUND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WESTWARD...AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWERING TO ONLY 20 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ERN QUEBEC...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND LASTING
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A REX TYPE BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL
QUEBEC...AND DOWNSTREAM OF JAMES BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS
UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
NEAR THE CATSKILLS FRIDAY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY
DRY.  THE BLOCKING RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON SATURDAY WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND NEW BRUNSWICK.  H850
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW...SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF BEFORE NOONTIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN
FROM NEW BRUNSWICK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW FORMS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.  OUR FCST AREA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF AND A BROADER HIGH
AMPLITUDE H500 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  THE H500 RIDGE
ACTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SE CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS/WPC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO
DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S AND PERHAPS SOME L80S OVER
THE VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK /TUESDAY/.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE
REGION WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST....AND SOME
MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY KICK
OFF A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL FAIR AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO DOMINATE INTO
THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT IS APPROACHING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SCATTERED/BROKEN CUMULUS ABOVE 3500 FEET AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER
23Z. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST AT ALL THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 23Z-02Z THURSDAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL/WESTERN NY IS SLOWLY TRACKING EAST AND IS
TIMED TO REACH THE HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE TAF SITES...ASSOCIATED
WITH MVFR/VFR CEILINGS ABD VISIBILITIES WILL BE AROUND OR JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE PROB 30 ARE INDICATED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
IN COVERAGE AND TIMING. THE TIMING OF THE END OF THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS IN QUESTION...SO INDICATING MVFR IN FOG
AND CEILINGS 11Z-14Z...WITH VCSH...THEN VFR VISIBILITIES BUT
CONTINUED MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 14Z-15Z.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
TONIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND
15 MPH. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE
TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM









000
FXUS61 KBTV 201706
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
106 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE 70S ACROSS
VT HAVE RAISED HIGHS AGAIN BY A DEGREE OR TWO WITH THIS UPDATE.

CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED WEST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WITH REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR SYR DOWN THROUGH
CENTRAL PA. PER RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE...THAT LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL SET ON NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
TRAVERSES VERY SLOWLY NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD. LAPS CAPES IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK CURRENTLY BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG SO THERE STILL COULD BE
SOME THUNDER ONCE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS. WEAK FLOW PRODUCING SLOW
STORM MOTIONS...TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILE AND PROGGED PWS BETWEEN
1.0-1.5" SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWNPOURS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. VT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES RAIN SHOWERS NOT
BEGINNING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. THINK
POPS REFLECT THIS PRETTY WELL AT THIS POINT AND DIDN`T MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THOSE WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT IN BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH ACROSS VERMONT
TONIGHT...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EASTWARD. THUS...HAVE A SHARP POP GRADIENT FROM THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. THE
LOWEST POPS OVER EASTERN VERMONT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. MODELS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SHOWERS INTO VERMONT ON THURSDAY.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS VERMONT ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT
IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. ON
FRIDAY...UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC. THUS...DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY. HAVE JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY MARKS THE START
OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL FEATURE A
BLOCKING TYPE SCENARIO DEVELOPING ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. BOTH
ECMWF/GFS SHOWS A DEVELOPING CLOSED 5H CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND BUILDING HGHT RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA WL PUSH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS INTO OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C.
THESE TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S ACRS OUR REGION WITH
THIS COOLER MARITIME AIR WL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACTS ON EASTERN
VT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW. SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH BUILDING HGHTS ALOFT. THIS
WL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB...WITH BEST THERMAL RIDGE AND
WARMEST LLVL TEMPS ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS VERY WARM AIR MASS...HAS DIFFICULTIES ADVECTING INTO OUR
CWA...GIVEN PLACEMENT OF SFC RIDGE AND NW FLW ALOFT...BUT SHOULD
BY THE MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WL WARM BTWN
12-14C BY NEXT WEDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L80S
WARMER VALLEYS. WL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY AS BEST ULVL SUPPORT AND
MID LVL MOISTURE IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY....LIFR IN FOG WL PREVAIL AT MPV UNTIL
13Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WL SPREAD
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRNT. THESE CLOUDS WL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACRS NORTHERN NEW YORK TAF SITES BY 21Z TODAY...AND SPREAD INTO VT
BY THIS EVENING. INITIALLY GIVEN THE VERY DRY LLVLS...EXPECTING
SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO FALL AS VIRGA. SOME MVFR CIGS COULD
DEVELOP AT SLK BY THIS EVENING...AS MOISTURE INCREASES ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS THIS
MORNING...TO BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY...WITH
EASTERLY FLW AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY INTO THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS...ESPECIALLY
AT SLK/MPV. FOG/BR WL BE LIMITED BY THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THREAT FOR SHOWERS. SFC HIGH PRES ACRS NORTHERN MAINE WL BUILD
INTO OUR TAF SITES ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. THE COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WL RESULT IN
FOG/BR AT SLK/MPV BOTH SAT AND SUN MORNINGS WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER










000
FXUS61 KBTV 201706
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
106 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE 70S ACROSS
VT HAVE RAISED HIGHS AGAIN BY A DEGREE OR TWO WITH THIS UPDATE.

CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED WEST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WITH REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR SYR DOWN THROUGH
CENTRAL PA. PER RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE...THAT LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL SET ON NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
TRAVERSES VERY SLOWLY NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD. LAPS CAPES IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK CURRENTLY BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG SO THERE STILL COULD BE
SOME THUNDER ONCE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS. WEAK FLOW PRODUCING SLOW
STORM MOTIONS...TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILE AND PROGGED PWS BETWEEN
1.0-1.5" SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWNPOURS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. VT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES RAIN SHOWERS NOT
BEGINNING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. THINK
POPS REFLECT THIS PRETTY WELL AT THIS POINT AND DIDN`T MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THOSE WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT IN BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH ACROSS VERMONT
TONIGHT...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EASTWARD. THUS...HAVE A SHARP POP GRADIENT FROM THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. THE
LOWEST POPS OVER EASTERN VERMONT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. MODELS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SHOWERS INTO VERMONT ON THURSDAY.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS VERMONT ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT
IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. ON
FRIDAY...UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC. THUS...DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY. HAVE JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY MARKS THE START
OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL FEATURE A
BLOCKING TYPE SCENARIO DEVELOPING ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. BOTH
ECMWF/GFS SHOWS A DEVELOPING CLOSED 5H CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND BUILDING HGHT RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA WL PUSH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS INTO OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C.
THESE TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S ACRS OUR REGION WITH
THIS COOLER MARITIME AIR WL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACTS ON EASTERN
VT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW. SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH BUILDING HGHTS ALOFT. THIS
WL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB...WITH BEST THERMAL RIDGE AND
WARMEST LLVL TEMPS ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS VERY WARM AIR MASS...HAS DIFFICULTIES ADVECTING INTO OUR
CWA...GIVEN PLACEMENT OF SFC RIDGE AND NW FLW ALOFT...BUT SHOULD
BY THE MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WL WARM BTWN
12-14C BY NEXT WEDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L80S
WARMER VALLEYS. WL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY AS BEST ULVL SUPPORT AND
MID LVL MOISTURE IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY....LIFR IN FOG WL PREVAIL AT MPV UNTIL
13Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WL SPREAD
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRNT. THESE CLOUDS WL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACRS NORTHERN NEW YORK TAF SITES BY 21Z TODAY...AND SPREAD INTO VT
BY THIS EVENING. INITIALLY GIVEN THE VERY DRY LLVLS...EXPECTING
SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO FALL AS VIRGA. SOME MVFR CIGS COULD
DEVELOP AT SLK BY THIS EVENING...AS MOISTURE INCREASES ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS THIS
MORNING...TO BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY...WITH
EASTERLY FLW AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY INTO THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS...ESPECIALLY
AT SLK/MPV. FOG/BR WL BE LIMITED BY THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THREAT FOR SHOWERS. SFC HIGH PRES ACRS NORTHERN MAINE WL BUILD
INTO OUR TAF SITES ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. THE COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WL RESULT IN
FOG/BR AT SLK/MPV BOTH SAT AND SUN MORNINGS WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER









000
FXUS61 KALY 201635
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1230 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTHEAST...IT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 1230 PM EDT...STILL NO CONVECTION ANYWHERE IN OUR AREA. ACTUALLY
WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH SOME LEFTOVER STRATUS CLOUDS WHICH ARE
EITHER SLOWLY BURNING OFF OR BECOME CU.

DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT UP INTO THE 60S SO THERE IS SOME MOISTURE TO
SPAWN A RANDOM THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. FURTHER EAST...WE ARE CAPPED SO ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
NOT HAPPEN UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WHERE CAPES COULD CLIMB TO NEAR 1000
J/KG BY DAY/S END. THE WIND FIELDS ARE WEAK AND SO ARE THE LAPSE
RATES SO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST MADE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE CLOUD COVER AND POPS (TRIMMING THEM A LITTLE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON). OTHERWISE THE ON GOING FORECAST LOOKED IN GREAT SHAPE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FEATURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES OFF
THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE FLOW
AROUND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WESTWARD...AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWERING TO ONLY 20 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ERN QUEBEC...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND LASTING
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A REX TYPE BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL
QUEBEC...AND DOWNSTREAM OF JAMES BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS
UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
NEAR THE CATSKILLS FRIDAY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY
DRY.  THE BLOCKING RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON SATURDAY WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND NEW BRUNSWICK.  H850
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW...SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF BEFORE NOONTIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN
FROM NEW BRUNSWICK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW FORMS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.  OUR FCST AREA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF AND A BROADER HIGH
AMPLITUDE H500 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  THE H500 RIDGE
ACTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SE CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS/WPC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO
DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S AND PERHAPS SOME L80S OVER
THE VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK /TUESDAY/.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE
REGION WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST....AND SOME
MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY KICK
OFF A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL FAIR AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO DOMINATE INTO
THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU PRIOR TO NOONTIME. SCT-BKN CUMULUS 3.5-5 KFT AGL
AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER 23Z. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE
FCST AT ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 23Z TO 02Z/THU. THE BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR/VFR CIGS VSBYS WILL BE SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND
15 MPH. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE
TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM









000
FXUS61 KALY 201635
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1230 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTHEAST...IT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 1230 PM EDT...STILL NO CONVECTION ANYWHERE IN OUR AREA. ACTUALLY
WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH SOME LEFTOVER STRATUS CLOUDS WHICH ARE
EITHER SLOWLY BURNING OFF OR BECOME CU.

DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT UP INTO THE 60S SO THERE IS SOME MOISTURE TO
SPAWN A RANDOM THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. FURTHER EAST...WE ARE CAPPED SO ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
NOT HAPPEN UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WHERE CAPES COULD CLIMB TO NEAR 1000
J/KG BY DAY/S END. THE WIND FIELDS ARE WEAK AND SO ARE THE LAPSE
RATES SO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST MADE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE CLOUD COVER AND POPS (TRIMMING THEM A LITTLE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON). OTHERWISE THE ON GOING FORECAST LOOKED IN GREAT SHAPE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FEATURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES OFF
THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE FLOW
AROUND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WESTWARD...AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWERING TO ONLY 20 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ERN QUEBEC...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND LASTING
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A REX TYPE BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL
QUEBEC...AND DOWNSTREAM OF JAMES BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS
UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
NEAR THE CATSKILLS FRIDAY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY
DRY.  THE BLOCKING RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON SATURDAY WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND NEW BRUNSWICK.  H850
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW...SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF BEFORE NOONTIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN
FROM NEW BRUNSWICK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW FORMS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.  OUR FCST AREA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF AND A BROADER HIGH
AMPLITUDE H500 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  THE H500 RIDGE
ACTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SE CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS/WPC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO
DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S AND PERHAPS SOME L80S OVER
THE VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK /TUESDAY/.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE
REGION WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST....AND SOME
MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY KICK
OFF A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL FAIR AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO DOMINATE INTO
THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU PRIOR TO NOONTIME. SCT-BKN CUMULUS 3.5-5 KFT AGL
AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER 23Z. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE
FCST AT ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 23Z TO 02Z/THU. THE BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR/VFR CIGS VSBYS WILL BE SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND
15 MPH. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE
TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM










000
FXUS61 KOKX 201543
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1143 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS BREAKING UP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...COINCIDENT WITH MIXING FROM DIURNAL HEATING AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NE NJ AND THE WESTERN
LOWER HUDSON WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL REMAIN...SLOWLY
TURNING PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TODAY.

DEVELOPING SE FLOW TODAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE HANGING
ON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AREAS...MOST OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE PTCLDY AND DRY. ACROSS THE FAR WRN/NWRN FRINGE...FALLING
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE NAM COULD
SPRING SOME SHRA/TSTMS. MAIN THREAT STILL W OF THE CWA WITH THE
EMBEDDED SHRTWV NOT ARRIVING TIL ABOUT 00Z.

TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT OR JUST BLW CLIMO. FCST IS CLOSE TO THE GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY WANES WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A LOSS OF
SFC HEATING. THEREFORE THE SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MINIMAL
EFFECT ATTM AND PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SHRA AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA
THIS EVE/TNGT. ANY TSTMS WOULD NEED TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE
STABLE MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN THE
FCST FOR TNGT.

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER THE UP OF MI
WILL DROP HEIGHTS ON THU AND ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER SHRA OR TSTMS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH A MARINE STRATUS
DECK LIKELY PENETRATING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. INCLUDED TSTMS ONLY
ON THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SHRA
ELSEWHERE. WHERE THE INSTABILITY DOES MATERIALIZE...THE SETUP IS
RIPE FOR MULTICELLULAR HVY RAINERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND PW/S
ABOUT 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TEMPS COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SET OFF SOME
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS. SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST UNDER 1000
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A LACK OF ANY
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM...THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.

OMEGA BLOCK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE. AN EXTENDED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EVEN IN THE NYC METRO REGION.

THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SCT CU 040-050 WEST
OF THE HUDSON THIS AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS BEING 20-40 DEGREES
RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC. SPEED AVERAGE JUST BELOW 10 KT...THOUGH
EXPECT OCNL 10-12 KT SPEEDS DURING FOR THE LATE AFTN DEPARTURE
BANK.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY 20 DEGREES OF THE
FCST MEAN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION BEING
20-30 DEGREES RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THU...GENERALLY VFR...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS COULD RESULT IN
LOWER CONDITIONS
.FRI-SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THU. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRI THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GUSTS ON
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE...AND SLIGHTLY LESS ON
SUNDAY. GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AS OF NOW. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU...MAINLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NJ AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HVY RAIN...HOWEVER BASIN AVE PCPN OF LESS THAN 1/4
INCH IS EXPECTED ATTM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM ANY OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/PICCA/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TONGUE/PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP






000
FXUS61 KOKX 201543
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1143 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS BREAKING UP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...COINCIDENT WITH MIXING FROM DIURNAL HEATING AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NE NJ AND THE WESTERN
LOWER HUDSON WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL REMAIN...SLOWLY
TURNING PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TODAY.

DEVELOPING SE FLOW TODAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE HANGING
ON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AREAS...MOST OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE PTCLDY AND DRY. ACROSS THE FAR WRN/NWRN FRINGE...FALLING
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE NAM COULD
SPRING SOME SHRA/TSTMS. MAIN THREAT STILL W OF THE CWA WITH THE
EMBEDDED SHRTWV NOT ARRIVING TIL ABOUT 00Z.

TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT OR JUST BLW CLIMO. FCST IS CLOSE TO THE GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY WANES WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A LOSS OF
SFC HEATING. THEREFORE THE SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MINIMAL
EFFECT ATTM AND PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SHRA AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA
THIS EVE/TNGT. ANY TSTMS WOULD NEED TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE
STABLE MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN THE
FCST FOR TNGT.

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER THE UP OF MI
WILL DROP HEIGHTS ON THU AND ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER SHRA OR TSTMS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH A MARINE STRATUS
DECK LIKELY PENETRATING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. INCLUDED TSTMS ONLY
ON THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SHRA
ELSEWHERE. WHERE THE INSTABILITY DOES MATERIALIZE...THE SETUP IS
RIPE FOR MULTICELLULAR HVY RAINERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND PW/S
ABOUT 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TEMPS COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SET OFF SOME
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS. SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST UNDER 1000
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A LACK OF ANY
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM...THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.

OMEGA BLOCK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE. AN EXTENDED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EVEN IN THE NYC METRO REGION.

THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SCT CU 040-050 WEST
OF THE HUDSON THIS AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS BEING 20-40 DEGREES
RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC. SPEED AVERAGE JUST BELOW 10 KT...THOUGH
EXPECT OCNL 10-12 KT SPEEDS DURING FOR THE LATE AFTN DEPARTURE
BANK.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY 20 DEGREES OF THE
FCST MEAN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION BEING
20-30 DEGREES RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THU...GENERALLY VFR...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS COULD RESULT IN
LOWER CONDITIONS
.FRI-SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THU. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRI THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GUSTS ON
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE...AND SLIGHTLY LESS ON
SUNDAY. GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AS OF NOW. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU...MAINLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NJ AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HVY RAIN...HOWEVER BASIN AVE PCPN OF LESS THAN 1/4
INCH IS EXPECTED ATTM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM ANY OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/PICCA/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TONGUE/PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP






000
FXUS61 KOKX 201543
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1143 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS BREAKING UP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...COINCIDENT WITH MIXING FROM DIURNAL HEATING AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NE NJ AND THE WESTERN
LOWER HUDSON WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL REMAIN...SLOWLY
TURNING PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TODAY.

DEVELOPING SE FLOW TODAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE HANGING
ON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AREAS...MOST OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE PTCLDY AND DRY. ACROSS THE FAR WRN/NWRN FRINGE...FALLING
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE NAM COULD
SPRING SOME SHRA/TSTMS. MAIN THREAT STILL W OF THE CWA WITH THE
EMBEDDED SHRTWV NOT ARRIVING TIL ABOUT 00Z.

TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT OR JUST BLW CLIMO. FCST IS CLOSE TO THE GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY WANES WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A LOSS OF
SFC HEATING. THEREFORE THE SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MINIMAL
EFFECT ATTM AND PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SHRA AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA
THIS EVE/TNGT. ANY TSTMS WOULD NEED TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE
STABLE MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN THE
FCST FOR TNGT.

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER THE UP OF MI
WILL DROP HEIGHTS ON THU AND ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER SHRA OR TSTMS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH A MARINE STRATUS
DECK LIKELY PENETRATING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. INCLUDED TSTMS ONLY
ON THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SHRA
ELSEWHERE. WHERE THE INSTABILITY DOES MATERIALIZE...THE SETUP IS
RIPE FOR MULTICELLULAR HVY RAINERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND PW/S
ABOUT 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TEMPS COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SET OFF SOME
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS. SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST UNDER 1000
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A LACK OF ANY
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM...THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.

OMEGA BLOCK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE. AN EXTENDED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EVEN IN THE NYC METRO REGION.

THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SCT CU 040-050 WEST
OF THE HUDSON THIS AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS BEING 20-40 DEGREES
RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC. SPEED AVERAGE JUST BELOW 10 KT...THOUGH
EXPECT OCNL 10-12 KT SPEEDS DURING FOR THE LATE AFTN DEPARTURE
BANK.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY 20 DEGREES OF THE
FCST MEAN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION BEING
20-30 DEGREES RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THU...GENERALLY VFR...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS COULD RESULT IN
LOWER CONDITIONS
.FRI-SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THU. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRI THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GUSTS ON
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE...AND SLIGHTLY LESS ON
SUNDAY. GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AS OF NOW. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU...MAINLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NJ AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HVY RAIN...HOWEVER BASIN AVE PCPN OF LESS THAN 1/4
INCH IS EXPECTED ATTM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM ANY OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/PICCA/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TONGUE/PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP






000
FXUS61 KOKX 201543
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1143 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS BREAKING UP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...COINCIDENT WITH MIXING FROM DIURNAL HEATING AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NE NJ AND THE WESTERN
LOWER HUDSON WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL REMAIN...SLOWLY
TURNING PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TODAY.

DEVELOPING SE FLOW TODAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE HANGING
ON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AREAS...MOST OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE PTCLDY AND DRY. ACROSS THE FAR WRN/NWRN FRINGE...FALLING
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE NAM COULD
SPRING SOME SHRA/TSTMS. MAIN THREAT STILL W OF THE CWA WITH THE
EMBEDDED SHRTWV NOT ARRIVING TIL ABOUT 00Z.

TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT OR JUST BLW CLIMO. FCST IS CLOSE TO THE GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY WANES WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A LOSS OF
SFC HEATING. THEREFORE THE SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MINIMAL
EFFECT ATTM AND PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SHRA AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA
THIS EVE/TNGT. ANY TSTMS WOULD NEED TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE
STABLE MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN THE
FCST FOR TNGT.

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER THE UP OF MI
WILL DROP HEIGHTS ON THU AND ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER SHRA OR TSTMS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH A MARINE STRATUS
DECK LIKELY PENETRATING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. INCLUDED TSTMS ONLY
ON THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SHRA
ELSEWHERE. WHERE THE INSTABILITY DOES MATERIALIZE...THE SETUP IS
RIPE FOR MULTICELLULAR HVY RAINERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND PW/S
ABOUT 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TEMPS COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SET OFF SOME
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS. SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST UNDER 1000
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A LACK OF ANY
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM...THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.

OMEGA BLOCK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE. AN EXTENDED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EVEN IN THE NYC METRO REGION.

THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SCT CU 040-050 WEST
OF THE HUDSON THIS AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS BEING 20-40 DEGREES
RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC. SPEED AVERAGE JUST BELOW 10 KT...THOUGH
EXPECT OCNL 10-12 KT SPEEDS DURING FOR THE LATE AFTN DEPARTURE
BANK.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY 20 DEGREES OF THE
FCST MEAN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION BEING
20-30 DEGREES RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THU...GENERALLY VFR...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS COULD RESULT IN
LOWER CONDITIONS
.FRI-SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THU. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRI THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GUSTS ON
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE...AND SLIGHTLY LESS ON
SUNDAY. GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AS OF NOW. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU...MAINLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NJ AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HVY RAIN...HOWEVER BASIN AVE PCPN OF LESS THAN 1/4
INCH IS EXPECTED ATTM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM ANY OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/PICCA/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TONGUE/PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 201459
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1059 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING THE AREA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 11 AM...RADAR SHOWS SHRA ENTERING OUR WRN COUNTIES IN THE
FINGER LAKES IN ASSCTN WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL WAVE AS
SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WAVE WILL WORK E THIS
AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE LIFT AND JUST ENUF INSTABILITY TO LEAD TO
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SOME TSRA MOVG ACRS ALL OF C NY
AND NE PA THRU 6 PM. WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT IN THE COLUMN AND
PWATS ARE 1.7 INCHES AND HENCE WE WILL HAVE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND FRANKLY THE RADAR ECHOES ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE. MODEL QPFS ARE RUNNING UP TO 1 INCH OR SO WHICH
SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OF 1 INCH PER HOUR OR SO. WE WILL
CONT MENTION IN HWO AND MONITOR.

PREVIOUS DSCN BELOW...
AT 415 AM...LOCAL RADARS TRENDS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
SHOWED ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BOTH WEAKENED AND BECOME
SCATTERED. STRONGER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED RECENTLY OVER EASTERN
OHIO AND WESTERN PA WHERE INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION.

H5 LOW OVER NRN MICHIGAN AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTION WILL
SLOWLY TRACK EAST TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES
ROTATING AROUND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NYS PRIMARILY WEST OF I81 THIS
MORNING WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN PTN OF FA AND
NORTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO FAIRLY HIGH PWATS (1.50-1.75
INCHES), MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING TALL/SKINNY CAPE AND A FAIRLY
DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS NOT A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT BUT MORE OF A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOP. SINCE ITS BEEN DRY
RECENTLY, RAINFALL AROUND 3 INCHES WILL BE NEEDED IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME (3 HOURS) BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING
BEGINS TO OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NY AND NRN TIER OF
PA WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR SE. DUE TO SOME INSTABILITY AND
FORCING WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC OF THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD AND RESIDE
OVER CENTRAL NY BY THURSDAY. PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE WET WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER CENTRAL NY AND HIGH CHC FOR NE PA. AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN VERY JUICY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AS UPPER LEVEL LOW FILLS AND MOVES EAST OF FA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BUT MAINLY
DRY BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SAME PTRN THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER CONTS WITH A
TROF OVER NEW ENG AND RDGG TO THE WEST. NEARLY STATIONARY WRM FNT
BNDRY OVER WRN NY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONV...AND KEEP CHANCE
OR SLGT CHANCE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PD. LL SELY FLOW WILL
KEEP COOLER AIR IN THE AREA AND AFTN TEMPS ESP BLO NRML. UPR LOW
SLOWLY DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENG CST ALLOWING A SLOW RETROGRADE OF
THE UPR RDG. THIS IN TURN SHD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL DRYING AND IMPRVG
WX SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HPC GUID SEEMED RSNBL AND WAS FLWD THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING AND MOSTLY VFR WITH EMBEDDED MVFR CIGS ARE PRESENT. EXPECT
FOG FROM LAST NIGHT TO LIFT SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS. IFR VISBYS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE... THUS DECIDED TO KEEP
MENTION OUT ATTM. EMBEDDED THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT ALSO DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT ALSO DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL FROM VFR TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT CLOSE TO 12Z.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WED AFTN-SUN...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA...AND
LGT OVRNGT FOG/ST.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJN/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...KAH






000
FXUS61 KBGM 201459
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1059 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING THE AREA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 11 AM...RADAR SHOWS SHRA ENTERING OUR WRN COUNTIES IN THE
FINGER LAKES IN ASSCTN WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL WAVE AS
SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WAVE WILL WORK E THIS
AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE LIFT AND JUST ENUF INSTABILITY TO LEAD TO
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SOME TSRA MOVG ACRS ALL OF C NY
AND NE PA THRU 6 PM. WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT IN THE COLUMN AND
PWATS ARE 1.7 INCHES AND HENCE WE WILL HAVE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND FRANKLY THE RADAR ECHOES ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE. MODEL QPFS ARE RUNNING UP TO 1 INCH OR SO WHICH
SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OF 1 INCH PER HOUR OR SO. WE WILL
CONT MENTION IN HWO AND MONITOR.

PREVIOUS DSCN BELOW...
AT 415 AM...LOCAL RADARS TRENDS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
SHOWED ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BOTH WEAKENED AND BECOME
SCATTERED. STRONGER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED RECENTLY OVER EASTERN
OHIO AND WESTERN PA WHERE INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION.

H5 LOW OVER NRN MICHIGAN AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTION WILL
SLOWLY TRACK EAST TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES
ROTATING AROUND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NYS PRIMARILY WEST OF I81 THIS
MORNING WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN PTN OF FA AND
NORTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO FAIRLY HIGH PWATS (1.50-1.75
INCHES), MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING TALL/SKINNY CAPE AND A FAIRLY
DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS NOT A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT BUT MORE OF A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOP. SINCE ITS BEEN DRY
RECENTLY, RAINFALL AROUND 3 INCHES WILL BE NEEDED IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME (3 HOURS) BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING
BEGINS TO OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NY AND NRN TIER OF
PA WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR SE. DUE TO SOME INSTABILITY AND
FORCING WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC OF THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD AND RESIDE
OVER CENTRAL NY BY THURSDAY. PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE WET WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER CENTRAL NY AND HIGH CHC FOR NE PA. AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN VERY JUICY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AS UPPER LEVEL LOW FILLS AND MOVES EAST OF FA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BUT MAINLY
DRY BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SAME PTRN THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER CONTS WITH A
TROF OVER NEW ENG AND RDGG TO THE WEST. NEARLY STATIONARY WRM FNT
BNDRY OVER WRN NY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONV...AND KEEP CHANCE
OR SLGT CHANCE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PD. LL SELY FLOW WILL
KEEP COOLER AIR IN THE AREA AND AFTN TEMPS ESP BLO NRML. UPR LOW
SLOWLY DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENG CST ALLOWING A SLOW RETROGRADE OF
THE UPR RDG. THIS IN TURN SHD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL DRYING AND IMPRVG
WX SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HPC GUID SEEMED RSNBL AND WAS FLWD THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING AND MOSTLY VFR WITH EMBEDDED MVFR CIGS ARE PRESENT. EXPECT
FOG FROM LAST NIGHT TO LIFT SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS. IFR VISBYS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE... THUS DECIDED TO KEEP
MENTION OUT ATTM. EMBEDDED THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT ALSO DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT ALSO DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL FROM VFR TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT CLOSE TO 12Z.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WED AFTN-SUN...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA...AND
LGT OVRNGT FOG/ST.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJN/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...KAH







000
FXUS61 KOKX 201447
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1047 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS BREAKING UP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...COINCIDENT WITH MIXING FROM DIURNAL HEATING AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NE NJ AND THE WESTERN
LOWER HUDSON WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL REMAIN...SLOWLY
TURNING PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TODAY.

DEVELOPING SE FLOW TODAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE HANGING
ON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AREAS...MOST OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE PTCLDY AND DRY. ACROSS THE FAR WRN/NWRN FRINGE...FALLING
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE NAM COULD
SPRING SOME SHRA/TSTMS. MAIN THREAT STILL W OF THE CWA WITH THE
EMBEDDED SHRTWV NOT ARRIVING TIL ABOUT 00Z.

TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT OR JUST BLW CLIMO. FCST IS CLOSE TO THE GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY WANES WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A LOSS OF
SFC HEATING. THEREFORE THE SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MINIMAL
EFFECT ATTM AND PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SHRA AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA
THIS EVE/TNGT. ANY TSTMS WOULD NEED TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE
STABLE MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN THE
FCST FOR TNGT.

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER THE UP OF MI
WILL DROP HEIGHTS ON THU AND ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER SHRA OR TSTMS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH A MARINE STRATUS
DECK LIKELY PENETRATING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. INCLUDED TSTMS ONLY
ON THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SHRA
ELSEWHERE. WHERE THE INSTABILITY DOES MATERIALIZE...THE SETUP IS
RIPE FOR MULTICELLULAR HVY RAINERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND PW/S
ABOUT 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TEMPS COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SET OFF SOME
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS. SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST UNDER 1000
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A LACK OF ANY
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM...THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.

OMEGA BLOCK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE. AN EXTENDED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EVEN IN THE NYC METRO REGION.

THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

SCT CU 040-050 WEST OF THE HUDSON THIS AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS BEING 20-30 DEGREES
RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC. SPEED AVERAGE JUST BELOW 10 KT...THOUGH
EXPECT OCNL 10-12 KT SPEEDS DURING FOR THE LATE AFTN DEPARTURE
BANK.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE SSE COULD BE AS
LATE AS 22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS BEING 20-30 DEGREES
RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THU...GENERALLY VFR...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS COULD RESULT IN
LOWER CONDITIONS
.FRI-SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THU. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRI THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GUSTS ON
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE...AND SLIGHTLY LESS ON
SUNDAY. GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AS OF NOW. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU...MAINLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NJ AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HVY RAIN...HOWEVER BASIN AVE PCPN OF LESS THAN 1/4
INCH IS EXPECTED ATTM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM ANY OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/PICCA/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TONGUE/PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP








000
FXUS61 KOKX 201447
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1047 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS BREAKING UP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...COINCIDENT WITH MIXING FROM DIURNAL HEATING AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NE NJ AND THE WESTERN
LOWER HUDSON WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL REMAIN...SLOWLY
TURNING PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TODAY.

DEVELOPING SE FLOW TODAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE HANGING
ON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AREAS...MOST OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE PTCLDY AND DRY. ACROSS THE FAR WRN/NWRN FRINGE...FALLING
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE NAM COULD
SPRING SOME SHRA/TSTMS. MAIN THREAT STILL W OF THE CWA WITH THE
EMBEDDED SHRTWV NOT ARRIVING TIL ABOUT 00Z.

TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT OR JUST BLW CLIMO. FCST IS CLOSE TO THE GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY WANES WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A LOSS OF
SFC HEATING. THEREFORE THE SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MINIMAL
EFFECT ATTM AND PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SHRA AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA
THIS EVE/TNGT. ANY TSTMS WOULD NEED TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE
STABLE MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN THE
FCST FOR TNGT.

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER THE UP OF MI
WILL DROP HEIGHTS ON THU AND ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER SHRA OR TSTMS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH A MARINE STRATUS
DECK LIKELY PENETRATING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. INCLUDED TSTMS ONLY
ON THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SHRA
ELSEWHERE. WHERE THE INSTABILITY DOES MATERIALIZE...THE SETUP IS
RIPE FOR MULTICELLULAR HVY RAINERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND PW/S
ABOUT 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TEMPS COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SET OFF SOME
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS. SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST UNDER 1000
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A LACK OF ANY
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM...THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.

OMEGA BLOCK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE. AN EXTENDED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EVEN IN THE NYC METRO REGION.

THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

SCT CU 040-050 WEST OF THE HUDSON THIS AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS BEING 20-30 DEGREES
RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC. SPEED AVERAGE JUST BELOW 10 KT...THOUGH
EXPECT OCNL 10-12 KT SPEEDS DURING FOR THE LATE AFTN DEPARTURE
BANK.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE SSE COULD BE AS
LATE AS 22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS BEING 20-30 DEGREES
RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THU...GENERALLY VFR...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS COULD RESULT IN
LOWER CONDITIONS
.FRI-SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THU. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRI THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GUSTS ON
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE...AND SLIGHTLY LESS ON
SUNDAY. GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AS OF NOW. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU...MAINLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NJ AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HVY RAIN...HOWEVER BASIN AVE PCPN OF LESS THAN 1/4
INCH IS EXPECTED ATTM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM ANY OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/PICCA/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TONGUE/PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP









000
FXUS61 KBUF 201439
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1039 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MUCH OF THOSE
TWO DAYS WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1430Z...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A BROAD SURFACE LOW
OVER MICHIGAN...WITH AN ATTENDANT DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE AND INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...A DECAYING AREA OF
SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST PA IS SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE FURTHER NORTH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE FOUND FROM FAR WESTERN NEW YORK EASTWARD INTO THE FINGER LAKES
REGION.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEW YORK...
WHILE A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
ALOFT. IN CONJUNCTION WITH FURTHER MOISTENING OF OUR AIRMASS
/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES/ AND DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...THESE FEATURES SHOULD HELP OUR CURRENT
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BECOME CONSIDERABLY MORE
NUMEROUS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHEN SOME SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO FORM
GIVEN PROJECTED SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG. WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES AND WEAK WIND FIELDS IN PLACE ALONG WITH THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM
ANY STORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS...WHILE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LIKELY REMAIN VERY LOW.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS TODAY...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGH TEMPS RANGING
BETWEEN THE MID 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 60S.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT AND
FOCUSING BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LATE DAY INSTABILITY...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LIFT
OF THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WNY THIS EVENING. BY LATE OVERNIGHT THE BULK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOWARDS THE EAST IN PROXIMITY TO
THE STALLING WARM FRONT...WITH JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WNY
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL PUSH TO NORMAL...OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS BE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
THE REGION...WITH 80S MOST LIKELY TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL BE
FOUND. TONIGHT A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
60S WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT FLOW FEATURING A PSEUDO REX BLOCK OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BREAK DOWN AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG H25
WINDS RACING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND KICK OUT THE DOWNSTREAM CYCLONE. A BURGEONING RIDGE WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
OVER OUR REGION. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL INTO AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
MODERATELY HIGH HUMIDITY.

THE ILL DEFINED REMNANTS OF AN H5 LOW IN THE VCNTY OF GEORGIAN BAY
THURSDAY MORNING WILL TRACK TO THE EAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTION
WILL DRAG ONE LAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BEING FOUND
EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING NEAR THE SFC
FRONT WILL BE FOUND. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 WILL BE A LITTLE
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...BUT LIGHT STEERING WINDS EAST OF
ROCHESTER WILL PERSIST...SO THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
SOME SLOW MOVING MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WHILE THE ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT...A WARM AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS (C) SHOULD ENABLE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. THE MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
WARMER AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AFTER OUR RECENT STRETCH OF FALL LIKE
WEATHER.

THE SHORTWAVE AND SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE THE
LEFTOVER SHOWERS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF NIGHT
WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES LOWER (UP 50S-LOW 60S) THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...AN INTERESTING SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE TO OUR
WEST. AN AMPLIFYING H5 RIDGE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND THIS WILL OVERLAY AN AREA OF
WEAKNESS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SHARPEN
A THERMAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE ALIGNED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS
IN THE VCNTY OF THIS BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST...OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD
BE MAINLY RAIN FREE. SINCE A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION THOUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...PARTICULAR IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL THUS
MAINTAIN LOW CHC POPS FROM CONTINUITY.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE A STRONG SFC
HIGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
NEW YORK. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A THERMAL BOUNDARY IN
PLACE FROM LAKE HURON TO LAKE ERIE AND WRN PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE BULK
OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD THUS BE RAIN FREE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER AS A 593DM H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE VCNTY OF CAPE COD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CLOSE TO 80 IN MANY AREAS MONDAY...AND THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 60.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1430Z...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH JUST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOUND IN ADVANCE OF
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEW YORK...
WHILE A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
ALOFT. IN CONJUNCTION WITH FURTHER MOISTENING AND HEATING OF OUR
AIRMASS...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL.

TONIGHT WITHIN THE MOIST AIRMASS SOME MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER ALONG WITH LOWERING VISIBILITIES. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME MVFR CIGS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS STILL LOW
AT THIS TIME.

SHOWERS AND ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE EAST OF THE
KROC AIRFIELD BY 00Z AS THE WARM FRONT STALLS NEAR LAKE ONTARIO AND
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ATTENDANT
LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES THIS MORNING TO
NEAR THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING WHERE IT WILL
DISSIPATE IN PLACE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY
PASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR/THOMAS
MARINE...JJR/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 201439
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1039 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MUCH OF THOSE
TWO DAYS WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1430Z...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A BROAD SURFACE LOW
OVER MICHIGAN...WITH AN ATTENDANT DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE AND INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...A DECAYING AREA OF
SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST PA IS SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE FURTHER NORTH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE FOUND FROM FAR WESTERN NEW YORK EASTWARD INTO THE FINGER LAKES
REGION.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEW YORK...
WHILE A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
ALOFT. IN CONJUNCTION WITH FURTHER MOISTENING OF OUR AIRMASS
/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES/ AND DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...THESE FEATURES SHOULD HELP OUR CURRENT
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BECOME CONSIDERABLY MORE
NUMEROUS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHEN SOME SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO FORM
GIVEN PROJECTED SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG. WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES AND WEAK WIND FIELDS IN PLACE ALONG WITH THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM
ANY STORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS...WHILE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LIKELY REMAIN VERY LOW.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS TODAY...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGH TEMPS RANGING
BETWEEN THE MID 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 60S.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT AND
FOCUSING BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LATE DAY INSTABILITY...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LIFT
OF THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WNY THIS EVENING. BY LATE OVERNIGHT THE BULK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOWARDS THE EAST IN PROXIMITY TO
THE STALLING WARM FRONT...WITH JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WNY
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL PUSH TO NORMAL...OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS BE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
THE REGION...WITH 80S MOST LIKELY TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL BE
FOUND. TONIGHT A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
60S WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT FLOW FEATURING A PSEUDO REX BLOCK OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BREAK DOWN AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG H25
WINDS RACING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND KICK OUT THE DOWNSTREAM CYCLONE. A BURGEONING RIDGE WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
OVER OUR REGION. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL INTO AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
MODERATELY HIGH HUMIDITY.

THE ILL DEFINED REMNANTS OF AN H5 LOW IN THE VCNTY OF GEORGIAN BAY
THURSDAY MORNING WILL TRACK TO THE EAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTION
WILL DRAG ONE LAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BEING FOUND
EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING NEAR THE SFC
FRONT WILL BE FOUND. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 WILL BE A LITTLE
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...BUT LIGHT STEERING WINDS EAST OF
ROCHESTER WILL PERSIST...SO THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
SOME SLOW MOVING MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WHILE THE ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT...A WARM AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS (C) SHOULD ENABLE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. THE MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
WARMER AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AFTER OUR RECENT STRETCH OF FALL LIKE
WEATHER.

THE SHORTWAVE AND SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE THE
LEFTOVER SHOWERS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF NIGHT
WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES LOWER (UP 50S-LOW 60S) THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...AN INTERESTING SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE TO OUR
WEST. AN AMPLIFYING H5 RIDGE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND THIS WILL OVERLAY AN AREA OF
WEAKNESS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SHARPEN
A THERMAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE ALIGNED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS
IN THE VCNTY OF THIS BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST...OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD
BE MAINLY RAIN FREE. SINCE A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION THOUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...PARTICULAR IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL THUS
MAINTAIN LOW CHC POPS FROM CONTINUITY.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE A STRONG SFC
HIGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
NEW YORK. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A THERMAL BOUNDARY IN
PLACE FROM LAKE HURON TO LAKE ERIE AND WRN PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE BULK
OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD THUS BE RAIN FREE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER AS A 593DM H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE VCNTY OF CAPE COD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CLOSE TO 80 IN MANY AREAS MONDAY...AND THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 60.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1430Z...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH JUST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOUND IN ADVANCE OF
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEW YORK...
WHILE A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
ALOFT. IN CONJUNCTION WITH FURTHER MOISTENING AND HEATING OF OUR
AIRMASS...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL.

TONIGHT WITHIN THE MOIST AIRMASS SOME MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER ALONG WITH LOWERING VISIBILITIES. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME MVFR CIGS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS STILL LOW
AT THIS TIME.

SHOWERS AND ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE EAST OF THE
KROC AIRFIELD BY 00Z AS THE WARM FRONT STALLS NEAR LAKE ONTARIO AND
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ATTENDANT
LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES THIS MORNING TO
NEAR THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING WHERE IT WILL
DISSIPATE IN PLACE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY
PASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR/THOMAS
MARINE...JJR/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBTV 201422
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1022 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1022 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...RADIATIONAL FOG IN THE EASTERN VT
RIVER VALLEYS HAS BURNED OFF. REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION TO SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN
WESTERN NY/PA. EARLY MORNING HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLED WITH ITS TIMING...THOUGH MORE RECENT RUNS POINT TO AREA
OF SHOWERS/STORMS NOT MAKING IT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND NOT UNTIL AFTER 00Z FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AREA. ADJUSTED POPS TO MATCH THESE GENERAL TRENDS. STILL
THINK THREAT OF THUNDER WILL EXIST ESPECIALLY WITH A LATER TIMING
ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY (GENERALLY AOB 1000
J/KG). IT ALSO IS A FAIRLY MOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS WITH PWS PER
BUF/ALB RAOBS BETWEEN 1.2-1.5"...THOUGH NOT EXCESSIVELY SO. SO
COULD BE A FEW DOWNPOURS IN STEADIER RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

I DID ADJUST HIGHS UP A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS VERMONT AS SKIES
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...AND LOWERED A BIT ACROSS NORTHERN ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AREA. WITH SFC WARM FRONT ANCHORED ALONG THE
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER MAY FILTER DOWN ON NORTHEAST SFC
FLOW. HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND UPPER 70S TO
LOWER/MID 80S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT IN BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH ACROSS VERMONT
TONIGHT...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EASTWARD. THUS...HAVE A SHARP POP GRADIENT FROM THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. THE
LOWEST POPS OVER EASTERN VERMONT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. MODELS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SHOWERS INTO VERMONT ON THURSDAY.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS VERMONT ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT
IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. ON
FRIDAY...UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC. THUS...DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY. HAVE JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY MARKS THE START
OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL FEATURE A
BLOCKING TYPE SCENARIO DEVELOPING ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. BOTH
ECMWF/GFS SHOWS A DEVELOPING CLOSED 5H CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND BUILDING HGHT RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA WL PUSH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS INTO OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C.
THESE TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S ACRS OUR REGION WITH
THIS COOLER MARITIME AIR WL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACTS ON EASTERN
VT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW. SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH BUILDING HGHTS ALOFT. THIS
WL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB...WITH BEST THERMAL RIDGE AND
WARMEST LLVL TEMPS ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS VERY WARM AIR MASS...HAS DIFFICULTIES ADVECTING INTO OUR
CWA...GIVEN PLACEMENT OF SFC RIDGE AND NW FLW ALOFT...BUT SHOULD
BY THE MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WL WARM BTWN
12-14C BY NEXT WEDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L80S
WARMER VALLEYS. WL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY AS BEST ULVL SUPPORT AND
MID LVL MOISTURE IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY....LIFR IN FOG WL PREVAIL AT MPV UNTIL
13Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WL SPREAD
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRNT. THESE CLOUDS WL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACRS NORTHERN NEW YORK TAF SITES BY 21Z TODAY...AND SPREAD INTO VT
BY THIS EVENING. INITIALLY GIVEN THE VERY DRY LLVLS...EXPECTING
SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO FALL AS VIRGA. SOME MVFR CIGS COULD
DEVELOP AT SLK BY THIS EVENING...AS MOISTURE INCREASES ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS THIS
MORNING...TO BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY...WITH
EASTERLY FLW AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY INTO THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS...ESPECIALLY
AT SLK/MPV. FOG/BR WL BE LIMITED BY THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THREAT FOR SHOWERS. SFC HIGH PRES ACRS NORTHERN MAINE WL BUILD
INTO OUR TAF SITES ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. THE COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WL RESULT IN
FOG/BR AT SLK/MPV BOTH SAT AND SUN MORNINGS WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 201422
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1022 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1022 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...RADIATIONAL FOG IN THE EASTERN VT
RIVER VALLEYS HAS BURNED OFF. REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION TO SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN
WESTERN NY/PA. EARLY MORNING HI-RES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLED WITH ITS TIMING...THOUGH MORE RECENT RUNS POINT TO AREA
OF SHOWERS/STORMS NOT MAKING IT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND NOT UNTIL AFTER 00Z FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AREA. ADJUSTED POPS TO MATCH THESE GENERAL TRENDS. STILL
THINK THREAT OF THUNDER WILL EXIST ESPECIALLY WITH A LATER TIMING
ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY (GENERALLY AOB 1000
J/KG). IT ALSO IS A FAIRLY MOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS WITH PWS PER
BUF/ALB RAOBS BETWEEN 1.2-1.5"...THOUGH NOT EXCESSIVELY SO. SO
COULD BE A FEW DOWNPOURS IN STEADIER RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK.

I DID ADJUST HIGHS UP A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS VERMONT AS SKIES
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...AND LOWERED A BIT ACROSS NORTHERN ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AREA. WITH SFC WARM FRONT ANCHORED ALONG THE
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER MAY FILTER DOWN ON NORTHEAST SFC
FLOW. HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND UPPER 70S TO
LOWER/MID 80S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT IN BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH ACROSS VERMONT
TONIGHT...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EASTWARD. THUS...HAVE A SHARP POP GRADIENT FROM THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. THE
LOWEST POPS OVER EASTERN VERMONT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. MODELS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SHOWERS INTO VERMONT ON THURSDAY.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS VERMONT ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT
IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. ON
FRIDAY...UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC. THUS...DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY. HAVE JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY MARKS THE START
OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL FEATURE A
BLOCKING TYPE SCENARIO DEVELOPING ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. BOTH
ECMWF/GFS SHOWS A DEVELOPING CLOSED 5H CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND BUILDING HGHT RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA WL PUSH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS INTO OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C.
THESE TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S ACRS OUR REGION WITH
THIS COOLER MARITIME AIR WL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACTS ON EASTERN
VT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW. SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH BUILDING HGHTS ALOFT. THIS
WL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB...WITH BEST THERMAL RIDGE AND
WARMEST LLVL TEMPS ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS VERY WARM AIR MASS...HAS DIFFICULTIES ADVECTING INTO OUR
CWA...GIVEN PLACEMENT OF SFC RIDGE AND NW FLW ALOFT...BUT SHOULD
BY THE MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WL WARM BTWN
12-14C BY NEXT WEDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L80S
WARMER VALLEYS. WL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY AS BEST ULVL SUPPORT AND
MID LVL MOISTURE IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY....LIFR IN FOG WL PREVAIL AT MPV UNTIL
13Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WL SPREAD
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRNT. THESE CLOUDS WL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACRS NORTHERN NEW YORK TAF SITES BY 21Z TODAY...AND SPREAD INTO VT
BY THIS EVENING. INITIALLY GIVEN THE VERY DRY LLVLS...EXPECTING
SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO FALL AS VIRGA. SOME MVFR CIGS COULD
DEVELOP AT SLK BY THIS EVENING...AS MOISTURE INCREASES ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS THIS
MORNING...TO BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY...WITH
EASTERLY FLW AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY INTO THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS...ESPECIALLY
AT SLK/MPV. FOG/BR WL BE LIMITED BY THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THREAT FOR SHOWERS. SFC HIGH PRES ACRS NORTHERN MAINE WL BUILD
INTO OUR TAF SITES ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. THE COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WL RESULT IN
FOG/BR AT SLK/MPV BOTH SAT AND SUN MORNINGS WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KALY 201406
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1006 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTHEAST...IT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12Z AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW WE ARE CAPPED HERE IN EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THEE IS SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN WESTERN NY AND CENTRAL/WESTERN PA BUILDING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. SOME CLOUD COVER IS BUILDING EAST AS WELL AND SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE IN WESTERN AREAS. SO...JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS...AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND IT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY HUMID AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOW OR MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FEATURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES OFF
THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE FLOW
AROUND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WESTWARD...AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWERING TO ONLY 20 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ERN QUEBEC...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND LASTING
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A REX TYPE BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL
QUEBEC...AND DOWNSTREAM OF JAMES BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS
UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
NEAR THE CATSKILLS FRIDAY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY
DRY.  THE BLOCKING RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON SATURDAY WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND NEW BRUNSWICK.  H850
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW...SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF BEFORE NOONTIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN
FROM NEW BRUNSWICK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW FORMS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.  OUR FCST AREA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF AND A BROADER HIGH
AMPLITUDE H500 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  THE H500 RIDGE
ACTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SE CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS/WPC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO
DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S AND PERHAPS SOME L80S OVER
THE VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK /TUESDAY/.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPTS GENERALLY IN THE
50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST....AND SOME MORNING
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY KICK OFF A FEW
SPRINKLES OR ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT OVERALL FAIR AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO DOMINATE INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU PRIOR TO NOONTIME. SCT-BKN CUMULUS 3.5-5 KFT AGL
AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER 23Z. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE
FCST AT ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 23Z TO 02Z/THU. THE BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR/VFR CIGS VSBYS WILL BE SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND
15 MPH. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE
TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/NAS
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 201406
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1006 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTHEAST...IT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12Z AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW WE ARE CAPPED HERE IN EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THEE IS SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN WESTERN NY AND CENTRAL/WESTERN PA BUILDING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. SOME CLOUD COVER IS BUILDING EAST AS WELL AND SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE IN WESTERN AREAS. SO...JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS...AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND IT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY HUMID AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOW OR MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FEATURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES OFF
THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE FLOW
AROUND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WESTWARD...AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWERING TO ONLY 20 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ERN QUEBEC...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND LASTING
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A REX TYPE BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL
QUEBEC...AND DOWNSTREAM OF JAMES BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS
UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
NEAR THE CATSKILLS FRIDAY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY
DRY.  THE BLOCKING RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON SATURDAY WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND NEW BRUNSWICK.  H850
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW...SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF BEFORE NOONTIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN
FROM NEW BRUNSWICK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW FORMS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.  OUR FCST AREA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF AND A BROADER HIGH
AMPLITUDE H500 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  THE H500 RIDGE
ACTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SE CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS/WPC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO
DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S AND PERHAPS SOME L80S OVER
THE VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK /TUESDAY/.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPTS GENERALLY IN THE
50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST....AND SOME MORNING
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY KICK OFF A FEW
SPRINKLES OR ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT OVERALL FAIR AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO DOMINATE INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU PRIOR TO NOONTIME. SCT-BKN CUMULUS 3.5-5 KFT AGL
AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER 23Z. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE
FCST AT ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 23Z TO 02Z/THU. THE BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR/VFR CIGS VSBYS WILL BE SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND
15 MPH. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE
TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/NAS
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 201300
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
900 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS NYC & POINTS N/W...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN
CT THROUGH 15Z OR SO. THIS IS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL AND
MODEL TRENDS THAT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL EXIST UNTIL
LATE MORNING. PARTLY SUNNY MOST AREAS THEREAFTER.

DEVELOPING SE FLOW TODAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE HANGING
ON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AREAS...MOST OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE PTCLDY AND DRY. ACROSS THE FAR WRN/NWRN FRINGE...FALLING
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE NAM COULD
SPRING SOME SHRA/TSTMS. MAIN THREAT STILL W OF THE CWA WITH THE
EMBEDDED SHRTWV NOT ARRIVING TIL ABOUT 00Z.

TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT OR JUST BLW CLIMO. FCST IS CLOSE TO THE GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY WANES WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A LOSS OF
SFC HEATING. THEREFORE THE SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MINIMAL
EFFECT ATTM AND PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SHRA AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA
THIS EVE/TNGT. ANY TSTMS WOULD NEED TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE
STABLE MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN THE
FCST FOR TNGT.

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER THE UP OF MI
WILL DROP HEIGHTS ON THU AND ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER SHRA OR TSTMS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH A MARINE STRATUS
DECK LIKELY PENETRATING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. INCLUDED TSTMS ONLY
ON THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SHRA
ELSEWHERE. WHERE THE INSTABILITY DOES MATERIALIZE...THE SETUP IS
RIPE FOR MULTICELLULAR HVY RAINERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND PW/S
ABOUT 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TEMPS COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SET OFF SOME
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS. SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST UNDER 1000
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A LACK OF ANY
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM...THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.

OMEGA BLOCK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE. AN EXTENDED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EVEN IN THE NYC METRO REGION.

THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

IFR STRATUS/RADIATION FOG OVER CT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND
DISSIPATE BY 14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR FCST WITH SCT-BKN 040-050 THIS
MORNING SCATTERS THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
PA AND WESTERN NY THIS AFTN.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KTS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OFF THE SOUND WILL
EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING
OF WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KTS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS COULD
RESULT IN LOWER CONDITIONS
.FRI-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THU. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRI THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GUSTS ON
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE...AND SLIGHTLY LESS ON
SUNDAY. GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AS OF NOW. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU...MAINLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NJ AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HVY RAIN...HOWEVER BASIN AVE PCPN OF LESS THAN 1/4
INCH IS EXPECTED ATTM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM ANY OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/PICCA/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JST
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP









000
FXUS61 KOKX 201300
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
900 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS NYC & POINTS N/W...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN
CT THROUGH 15Z OR SO. THIS IS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL AND
MODEL TRENDS THAT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL EXIST UNTIL
LATE MORNING. PARTLY SUNNY MOST AREAS THEREAFTER.

DEVELOPING SE FLOW TODAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE HANGING
ON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AREAS...MOST OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE PTCLDY AND DRY. ACROSS THE FAR WRN/NWRN FRINGE...FALLING
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE NAM COULD
SPRING SOME SHRA/TSTMS. MAIN THREAT STILL W OF THE CWA WITH THE
EMBEDDED SHRTWV NOT ARRIVING TIL ABOUT 00Z.

TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT OR JUST BLW CLIMO. FCST IS CLOSE TO THE GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY WANES WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A LOSS OF
SFC HEATING. THEREFORE THE SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MINIMAL
EFFECT ATTM AND PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SHRA AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA
THIS EVE/TNGT. ANY TSTMS WOULD NEED TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE
STABLE MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN THE
FCST FOR TNGT.

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER THE UP OF MI
WILL DROP HEIGHTS ON THU AND ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER SHRA OR TSTMS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH A MARINE STRATUS
DECK LIKELY PENETRATING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. INCLUDED TSTMS ONLY
ON THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SHRA
ELSEWHERE. WHERE THE INSTABILITY DOES MATERIALIZE...THE SETUP IS
RIPE FOR MULTICELLULAR HVY RAINERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND PW/S
ABOUT 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TEMPS COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SET OFF SOME
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS. SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST UNDER 1000
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A LACK OF ANY
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM...THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.

OMEGA BLOCK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE. AN EXTENDED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EVEN IN THE NYC METRO REGION.

THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

IFR STRATUS/RADIATION FOG OVER CT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND
DISSIPATE BY 14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR FCST WITH SCT-BKN 040-050 THIS
MORNING SCATTERS THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
PA AND WESTERN NY THIS AFTN.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KTS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OFF THE SOUND WILL
EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING
OF WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KTS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS COULD
RESULT IN LOWER CONDITIONS
.FRI-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THU. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRI THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GUSTS ON
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE...AND SLIGHTLY LESS ON
SUNDAY. GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AS OF NOW. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU...MAINLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NJ AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HVY RAIN...HOWEVER BASIN AVE PCPN OF LESS THAN 1/4
INCH IS EXPECTED ATTM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM ANY OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/PICCA/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JST
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP










000
FXUS61 KBUF 201147
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
747 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS. A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM MAY BE LEFTOVER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN FREE WHILE CONTINUING TO REMAIN WARM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT IS FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE AND
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. BEHIND THIS WARM
FRONT DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS OHIO AND WESTERN
PA...WHILE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER...GENESEE VALLEY AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. CLOUDINESS IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARMER AIR PUSHING NORTHWARD IS FOUND ACROSS WNY AND IS NOW STARTING
TO SPILL OVER INTO EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

ALOFT A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FOUND OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH A SURFACE LOW ALSO REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A FEW SUBTLE CONVECTIVELY
AUGMENTS VORTICITY MAXES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW.

FOR TODAY EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AS THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT SLOWLY EDGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. ACTIVITY
SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE MORNING WITH ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT IN ADDITION TO INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING. ALSO
AIDING IN LOW LEVEL LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW
LEVEL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
PWATS RISE TOWARDS 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES TODAY WITHIN A VERY LIGHT
SYNOPTIC FLOW. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TO THE REGION AS SLOW MOVING ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO DROP A HEAVY AMOUNT OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME. THIS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCALIZED AND WILL
JUST CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO PRODUCT. WHILE
WE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SBCAPES 500 TO 1000
J/KG...MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY ONLY BRING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MORE LIKELY.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT AND
FOCUSING BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LATE DAY INSTABILITY...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LIFT
OF THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WNY THIS EVENING. BY LATE OVERNIGHT THE BULK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOWARDS THE EAST IN PROXIMITY TO
THE STALLING WARM FRONT...WITH JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WNY
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL PUSH TO NORMAL...OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS BE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
THE REGION...WITH 80S MOST LIKELY TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL BE
FOUND. TONIGHT A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
60S WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT FLOW FEATURING A PSEUDO REX BLOCK OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BREAK DOWN AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG H25
WINDS RACING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND KICK OUT THE DOWNSTREAM CYCLONE. A BURGEONING RIDGE WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
OVER OUR REGION. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL INTO AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
MODERATELY HIGH HUMIDITY.

THE ILL DEFINED REMNANTS OF AN H5 LOW IN THE VCNTY OF GEORGIAN BAY
THURSDAY MORNING WILL TRACK TO THE EAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTION
WILL DRAG ONE LAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BEING FOUND
EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING NEAR THE SFC
FRONT WILL BE FOUND. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 WILL BE A LITTLE
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...BUT LIGHT STEERING WINDS EAST OF
ROCHESTER WILL PERSIST...SO THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
SOME SLOW MOVING MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WHILE THE ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT...A WARM AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS (C) SHOULD ENABLE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. THE MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
WARMER AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AFTER OUR RECENT STRETCH OF FALL LIKE
WEATHER.

THE SHORTWAVE AND SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE THE
LEFTOVER SHOWERS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF NIGHT
WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES LOWER (UP 50S-LOW 60S) THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...AN INTERESTING SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE TO OUR
WEST. AN AMPLIFYING H5 RIDGE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND THIS WILL OVERLAY AN AREA OF
WEAKNESS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SHARPEN
A THERMAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE ALIGNED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS
IN THE VCNTY OF THIS BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST...OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD
BE MAINLY RAIN FREE. SINCE A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION THOUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...PARTICULAR IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL THUS
MAINTAIN LOW CHC POPS FROM CONTINUITY.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE A STRONG SFC
HIGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
NEW YORK. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A THERMAL BOUNDARY IN
PLACE FROM LAKE HURON TO LAKE ERIE AND WRN PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE BULK
OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD THUS BE RAIN FREE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER AS A 593DM H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE VCNTY OF CAPE COD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CLOSE TO 80 IN MANY AREAS MONDAY...AND THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 12Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM
FRONT PENETRATED DEEPER INTO WNY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SEVERAL
POCKETS OF ENERGY ALOFT PASSING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH BRIEF MVFR IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS IS QUITE POSSIBLE. TONIGHT WITHIN THE MOIST
AIRMASS SOME MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ALONG
WITH LOWERING VISIBILITIES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR CIGS ELSEWHERE
TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS STILL LOW AT THIS TIME.

SHOWERS AND ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE EAST OF THE
KROC AIRFIELD BY 00Z AS THE WARM FRONT STALLS NEAR LAKE ONTARIO AND
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ATTENDANT
LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY MORNING
TO NEAR THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING WHERE IT
WILL DISSIPATE IN PLACE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL
SLOWLY PASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 201147
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
747 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS. A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM MAY BE LEFTOVER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN FREE WHILE CONTINUING TO REMAIN WARM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT IS FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE AND
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. BEHIND THIS WARM
FRONT DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS OHIO AND WESTERN
PA...WHILE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER...GENESEE VALLEY AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. CLOUDINESS IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARMER AIR PUSHING NORTHWARD IS FOUND ACROSS WNY AND IS NOW STARTING
TO SPILL OVER INTO EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

ALOFT A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FOUND OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH A SURFACE LOW ALSO REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A FEW SUBTLE CONVECTIVELY
AUGMENTS VORTICITY MAXES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW.

FOR TODAY EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AS THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT SLOWLY EDGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. ACTIVITY
SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE MORNING WITH ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT IN ADDITION TO INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING. ALSO
AIDING IN LOW LEVEL LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW
LEVEL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
PWATS RISE TOWARDS 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES TODAY WITHIN A VERY LIGHT
SYNOPTIC FLOW. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TO THE REGION AS SLOW MOVING ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO DROP A HEAVY AMOUNT OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME. THIS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCALIZED AND WILL
JUST CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO PRODUCT. WHILE
WE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SBCAPES 500 TO 1000
J/KG...MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY ONLY BRING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MORE LIKELY.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT AND
FOCUSING BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LATE DAY INSTABILITY...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LIFT
OF THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WNY THIS EVENING. BY LATE OVERNIGHT THE BULK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOWARDS THE EAST IN PROXIMITY TO
THE STALLING WARM FRONT...WITH JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WNY
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL PUSH TO NORMAL...OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS BE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
THE REGION...WITH 80S MOST LIKELY TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL BE
FOUND. TONIGHT A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
60S WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT FLOW FEATURING A PSEUDO REX BLOCK OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BREAK DOWN AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG H25
WINDS RACING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND KICK OUT THE DOWNSTREAM CYCLONE. A BURGEONING RIDGE WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
OVER OUR REGION. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL INTO AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
MODERATELY HIGH HUMIDITY.

THE ILL DEFINED REMNANTS OF AN H5 LOW IN THE VCNTY OF GEORGIAN BAY
THURSDAY MORNING WILL TRACK TO THE EAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTION
WILL DRAG ONE LAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BEING FOUND
EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING NEAR THE SFC
FRONT WILL BE FOUND. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 WILL BE A LITTLE
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...BUT LIGHT STEERING WINDS EAST OF
ROCHESTER WILL PERSIST...SO THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
SOME SLOW MOVING MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WHILE THE ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT...A WARM AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS (C) SHOULD ENABLE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. THE MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
WARMER AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AFTER OUR RECENT STRETCH OF FALL LIKE
WEATHER.

THE SHORTWAVE AND SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE THE
LEFTOVER SHOWERS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF NIGHT
WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES LOWER (UP 50S-LOW 60S) THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...AN INTERESTING SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE TO OUR
WEST. AN AMPLIFYING H5 RIDGE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND THIS WILL OVERLAY AN AREA OF
WEAKNESS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SHARPEN
A THERMAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE ALIGNED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS
IN THE VCNTY OF THIS BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST...OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD
BE MAINLY RAIN FREE. SINCE A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION THOUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...PARTICULAR IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL THUS
MAINTAIN LOW CHC POPS FROM CONTINUITY.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE A STRONG SFC
HIGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
NEW YORK. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A THERMAL BOUNDARY IN
PLACE FROM LAKE HURON TO LAKE ERIE AND WRN PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE BULK
OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD THUS BE RAIN FREE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER AS A 593DM H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE VCNTY OF CAPE COD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CLOSE TO 80 IN MANY AREAS MONDAY...AND THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 12Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM
FRONT PENETRATED DEEPER INTO WNY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SEVERAL
POCKETS OF ENERGY ALOFT PASSING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH BRIEF MVFR IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS IS QUITE POSSIBLE. TONIGHT WITHIN THE MOIST
AIRMASS SOME MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ALONG
WITH LOWERING VISIBILITIES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR CIGS ELSEWHERE
TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS STILL LOW AT THIS TIME.

SHOWERS AND ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE EAST OF THE
KROC AIRFIELD BY 00Z AS THE WARM FRONT STALLS NEAR LAKE ONTARIO AND
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ATTENDANT
LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY MORNING
TO NEAR THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING WHERE IT
WILL DISSIPATE IN PLACE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL
SLOWLY PASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 201145
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
745 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT WILL BURN
OFF BY MID MORNING. EXPECTING SKIES TO START OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS HOLD OFF ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM WANT TO BRING
SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO
GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
EXTREME WESTERN NEW YORK STATE HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO MOVE
EASTWARD. THIS IS LIKELY A RESULT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE THIS MORNING...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WHICH PUTS THE REGION IN A BLOCKING PATTERN. GIVEN
THIS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
THIS AFTERNOON IS LOW...AND WOULD ALSO EXPLAIN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT IN BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH ACROSS VERMONT
TONIGHT...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EASTWARD. THUS...HAVE A SHARP POP GRADIENT FROM THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. THE
LOWEST POPS OVER EASTERN VERMONT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. MODELS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SHOWERS INTO VERMONT ON THURSDAY.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS VERMONT ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT
IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. ON
FRIDAY...UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC. THUS...DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY. HAVE JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY MARKS THE START
OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL FEATURE A
BLOCKING TYPE SCENARIO DEVELOPING ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. BOTH
ECMWF/GFS SHOWS A DEVELOPING CLOSED 5H CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND BUILDING HGHT RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA WL PUSH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS INTO OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C.
THESE TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S ACRS OUR REGION WITH
THIS COOLER MARITIME AIR WL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACTS ON EASTERN
VT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW. SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH BUILDING HGHTS ALOFT. THIS
WL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB...WITH BEST THERMAL RIDGE AND
WARMEST LLVL TEMPS ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS VERY WARM AIR MASS...HAS DIFFICULTIES ADVECTING INTO OUR
CWA...GIVEN PLACEMENT OF SFC RIDGE AND NW FLW ALOFT...BUT SHOULD
BY THE MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WL WARM BTWN
12-14C BY NEXT WEDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L80S
WARMER VALLEYS. WL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY AS BEST ULVL SUPPORT AND
MID LVL MOISTURE IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY....LIFR IN FOG WL PREVAIL AT MPV UNTIL
13Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WL SPREAD
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRNT. THESE CLOUDS WL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACRS NORTHERN NEW YORK TAF SITES BY 21Z TODAY...AND SPREAD INTO VT
BY THIS EVENING. INITIALLY GIVEN THE VERY DRY LLVLS...EXPECTING
SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO FALL AS VIRGA. SOME MVFR CIGS COULD
DEVELOP AT SLK BY THIS EVENING...AS MOISTURE INCREASES ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS THIS
MORNING...TO BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY...WITH
EASTERLY FLW AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY INTO THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS...ESPECIALLY
AT SLK/MPV. FOG/BR WL BE LIMITED BY THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THREAT FOR SHOWERS. SFC HIGH PRES ACRS NORTHERN MAINE WL BUILD
INTO OUR TAF SITES ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. THE COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WL RESULT IN
FOG/BR AT SLK/MPV BOTH SAT AND SUN MORNINGS WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER






000
FXUS61 KBTV 201145
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
745 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT WILL BURN
OFF BY MID MORNING. EXPECTING SKIES TO START OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS HOLD OFF ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM WANT TO BRING
SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO
GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
EXTREME WESTERN NEW YORK STATE HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO MOVE
EASTWARD. THIS IS LIKELY A RESULT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE THIS MORNING...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WHICH PUTS THE REGION IN A BLOCKING PATTERN. GIVEN
THIS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
THIS AFTERNOON IS LOW...AND WOULD ALSO EXPLAIN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT IN BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH ACROSS VERMONT
TONIGHT...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EASTWARD. THUS...HAVE A SHARP POP GRADIENT FROM THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. THE
LOWEST POPS OVER EASTERN VERMONT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. MODELS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SHOWERS INTO VERMONT ON THURSDAY.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS VERMONT ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT
IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. ON
FRIDAY...UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC. THUS...DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY. HAVE JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY MARKS THE START
OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL FEATURE A
BLOCKING TYPE SCENARIO DEVELOPING ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. BOTH
ECMWF/GFS SHOWS A DEVELOPING CLOSED 5H CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND BUILDING HGHT RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA WL PUSH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS INTO OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C.
THESE TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S ACRS OUR REGION WITH
THIS COOLER MARITIME AIR WL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACTS ON EASTERN
VT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW. SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH BUILDING HGHTS ALOFT. THIS
WL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB...WITH BEST THERMAL RIDGE AND
WARMEST LLVL TEMPS ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS VERY WARM AIR MASS...HAS DIFFICULTIES ADVECTING INTO OUR
CWA...GIVEN PLACEMENT OF SFC RIDGE AND NW FLW ALOFT...BUT SHOULD
BY THE MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WL WARM BTWN
12-14C BY NEXT WEDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L80S
WARMER VALLEYS. WL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY AS BEST ULVL SUPPORT AND
MID LVL MOISTURE IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY....LIFR IN FOG WL PREVAIL AT MPV UNTIL
13Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WL SPREAD
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRNT. THESE CLOUDS WL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACRS NORTHERN NEW YORK TAF SITES BY 21Z TODAY...AND SPREAD INTO VT
BY THIS EVENING. INITIALLY GIVEN THE VERY DRY LLVLS...EXPECTING
SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO FALL AS VIRGA. SOME MVFR CIGS COULD
DEVELOP AT SLK BY THIS EVENING...AS MOISTURE INCREASES ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS THIS
MORNING...TO BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY...WITH
EASTERLY FLW AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY INTO THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS...ESPECIALLY
AT SLK/MPV. FOG/BR WL BE LIMITED BY THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THREAT FOR SHOWERS. SFC HIGH PRES ACRS NORTHERN MAINE WL BUILD
INTO OUR TAF SITES ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. THE COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WL RESULT IN
FOG/BR AT SLK/MPV BOTH SAT AND SUN MORNINGS WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER







000
FXUS61 KOKX 201141
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
741 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADIATIONAL FOG ACROSS THE AREA IS BEGINNING TO LIFT SO SPS
HIGHLIGHTING PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 12Z.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS.

DEVELOPING SE FLOW TODAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE HANGING
ON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AREAS...MOST OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE PTCLDY AND DRY. ACROSS THE FAR WRN/NWRN FRINGE...FALLING
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE NAM COULD
SPRING SOME SHRA/TSTMS. MAIN THREAT STILL W OF THE CWA WITH THE
EMBEDDED SHRTWV NOT ARRIVING TIL ABOUT 00Z.

TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT OR JUST BLW CLIMO. FCST IS CLOSE TO THE GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY WANES WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A LOSS OF
SFC HEATING. THEREFORE THE SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MINIMAL
EFFECT ATTM AND PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SHRA AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA
THIS EVE/TNGT. ANY TSTMS WOULD NEED TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE
STABLE MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN THE
FCST FOR TNGT.

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER THE UP OF MI
WILL DROP HEIGHTS ON THU AND ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER SHRA OR TSTMS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH A MARINE STRATUS
DECK LIKELY PENETRATING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. INCLUDED TSTMS ONLY
ON THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SHRA
ELSEWHERE. WHERE THE INSTABILITY DOES MATERIALIZE...THE SETUP IS
RIPE FOR MULTICELLULAR HVY RAINERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND PW/S
ABOUT 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TEMPS COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SET OFF SOME
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS. SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST UNDER 1000
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A LACK OF ANY
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM...THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.

OMEGA BLOCK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE. AN EXTENDED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EVEN IN THE NYC METRO REGION.

THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

ANY STRATUS AND FOG BURNS OFF QUICKLY BEFORE 13-14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
WITH SCT CU TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANY ACTIVITY
WOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN TERMINAL FORECASTS.

A LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE WEST DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR.

LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST/SOUTH AT 6 TO 11 KTS THIS AFTERNOON MOST
TERMINALS.

WINDS LIGHTEN BY EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KTS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OFF THE SOUND WILL
EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING
OF WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KTS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY STRATUS QUICKLY BURNS OFF GIVING WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS COULD
RESULT IN LOWER CONDITIONS
.FRI-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THU. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRI THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GUSTS ON
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE...AND SLIGHTLY LESS ON
SUNDAY. GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AS OF NOW. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU...MAINLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NJ AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HVY RAIN...HOWEVER BASIN AVE PCPN OF LESS THAN 1/4
INCH IS EXPECTED ATTM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM ANY OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP






000
FXUS61 KOKX 201141
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
741 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADIATIONAL FOG ACROSS THE AREA IS BEGINNING TO LIFT SO SPS
HIGHLIGHTING PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 12Z.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS.

DEVELOPING SE FLOW TODAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE HANGING
ON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AREAS...MOST OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE PTCLDY AND DRY. ACROSS THE FAR WRN/NWRN FRINGE...FALLING
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE NAM COULD
SPRING SOME SHRA/TSTMS. MAIN THREAT STILL W OF THE CWA WITH THE
EMBEDDED SHRTWV NOT ARRIVING TIL ABOUT 00Z.

TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT OR JUST BLW CLIMO. FCST IS CLOSE TO THE GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY WANES WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A LOSS OF
SFC HEATING. THEREFORE THE SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MINIMAL
EFFECT ATTM AND PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SHRA AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA
THIS EVE/TNGT. ANY TSTMS WOULD NEED TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE
STABLE MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN THE
FCST FOR TNGT.

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER THE UP OF MI
WILL DROP HEIGHTS ON THU AND ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER SHRA OR TSTMS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH A MARINE STRATUS
DECK LIKELY PENETRATING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. INCLUDED TSTMS ONLY
ON THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SHRA
ELSEWHERE. WHERE THE INSTABILITY DOES MATERIALIZE...THE SETUP IS
RIPE FOR MULTICELLULAR HVY RAINERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND PW/S
ABOUT 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TEMPS COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SET OFF SOME
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS. SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST UNDER 1000
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A LACK OF ANY
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM...THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.

OMEGA BLOCK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE. AN EXTENDED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EVEN IN THE NYC METRO REGION.

THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

ANY STRATUS AND FOG BURNS OFF QUICKLY BEFORE 13-14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
WITH SCT CU TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANY ACTIVITY
WOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN TERMINAL FORECASTS.

A LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE WEST DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR.

LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST/SOUTH AT 6 TO 11 KTS THIS AFTERNOON MOST
TERMINALS.

WINDS LIGHTEN BY EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KTS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OFF THE SOUND WILL
EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING
OF WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KTS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY STRATUS QUICKLY BURNS OFF GIVING WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS COULD
RESULT IN LOWER CONDITIONS
.FRI-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THU. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRI THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GUSTS ON
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE...AND SLIGHTLY LESS ON
SUNDAY. GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AS OF NOW. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU...MAINLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NJ AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HVY RAIN...HOWEVER BASIN AVE PCPN OF LESS THAN 1/4
INCH IS EXPECTED ATTM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM ANY OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP







000
FXUS61 KBTV 201126
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. EXPECTING SKIES TO START OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS HOLD OFF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
UNTIL TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM WANT TO BRING SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN
NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EXTREME
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS
IS LIKELY A RESULT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE THIS MORNING...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH
PUTS THE REGION IN A BLOCKING PATTERN. GIVEN THIS...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON IS
LOW...AND WOULD ALSO EXPLAIN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE VARIOUS
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT IN BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH ACROSS VERMONT
TONIGHT...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EASTWARD. THUS...HAVE A SHARP POP GRADIENT FROM THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. THE
LOWEST POPS OVER EASTERN VERMONT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. MODELS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SHOWERS INTO VERMONT ON THURSDAY.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS VERMONT ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT
IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. ON
FRIDAY...UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC. THUS...DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY. HAVE JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY MARKS THE START
OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL FEATURE A
BLOCKING TYPE SCENARIO DEVELOPING ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. BOTH
ECMWF/GFS SHOWS A DEVELOPING CLOSED 5H CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND BUILDING HGHT RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA WL PUSH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS INTO OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C.
THESE TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S ACRS OUR REGION WITH
THIS COOLER MARITIME AIR WL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACTS ON EASTERN
VT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW. SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH BUILDING HGHTS ALOFT. THIS
WL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB...WITH BEST THERMAL RIDGE AND
WARMEST LLVL TEMPS ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS VERY WARM AIR MASS...HAS DIFFICULTIES ADVECTING INTO OUR
CWA...GIVEN PLACEMENT OF SFC RIDGE AND NW FLW ALOFT...BUT SHOULD
BY THE MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WL WARM BTWN
12-14C BY NEXT WEDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L80S
WARMER VALLEYS. WL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY AS BEST ULVL SUPPORT AND
MID LVL MOISTURE IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY....LIFR IN FOG WL PREVAIL AT MPV UNTIL
13Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WL SPREAD
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRNT. THESE CLOUDS WL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACRS NORTHERN NEW YORK TAF SITES BY 21Z TODAY...AND SPREAD INTO VT
BY THIS EVENING. INITIALLY GIVEN THE VERY DRY LLVLS...EXPECTING
SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO FALL AS VIRGA. SOME MVFR CIGS COULD
DEVELOP AT SLK BY THIS EVENING...AS MOISTURE INCREASES ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS THIS
MORNING...TO BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY...WITH
EASTERLY FLW AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY INTO THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS...ESPECIALLY
AT SLK/MPV. FOG/BR WL BE LIMITED BY THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THREAT FOR SHOWERS. SFC HIGH PRES ACRS NORTHERN MAINE WL BUILD
INTO OUR TAF SITES ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. THE COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WL RESULT IN
FOG/BR AT SLK/MPV BOTH SAT AND SUN MORNINGS WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 201126
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. EXPECTING SKIES TO START OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS HOLD OFF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
UNTIL TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM WANT TO BRING SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN
NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EXTREME
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS
IS LIKELY A RESULT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE THIS MORNING...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH
PUTS THE REGION IN A BLOCKING PATTERN. GIVEN THIS...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON IS
LOW...AND WOULD ALSO EXPLAIN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE VARIOUS
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT IN BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH ACROSS VERMONT
TONIGHT...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EASTWARD. THUS...HAVE A SHARP POP GRADIENT FROM THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. THE
LOWEST POPS OVER EASTERN VERMONT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. MODELS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SHOWERS INTO VERMONT ON THURSDAY.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS VERMONT ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT
IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. ON
FRIDAY...UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC. THUS...DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY. HAVE JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY MARKS THE START
OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL FEATURE A
BLOCKING TYPE SCENARIO DEVELOPING ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. BOTH
ECMWF/GFS SHOWS A DEVELOPING CLOSED 5H CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND BUILDING HGHT RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA WL PUSH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS INTO OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C.
THESE TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S ACRS OUR REGION WITH
THIS COOLER MARITIME AIR WL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACTS ON EASTERN
VT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW. SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH BUILDING HGHTS ALOFT. THIS
WL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB...WITH BEST THERMAL RIDGE AND
WARMEST LLVL TEMPS ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS VERY WARM AIR MASS...HAS DIFFICULTIES ADVECTING INTO OUR
CWA...GIVEN PLACEMENT OF SFC RIDGE AND NW FLW ALOFT...BUT SHOULD
BY THE MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WL WARM BTWN
12-14C BY NEXT WEDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L80S
WARMER VALLEYS. WL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY AS BEST ULVL SUPPORT AND
MID LVL MOISTURE IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY....LIFR IN FOG WL PREVAIL AT MPV UNTIL
13Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WL SPREAD
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRNT. THESE CLOUDS WL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACRS NORTHERN NEW YORK TAF SITES BY 21Z TODAY...AND SPREAD INTO VT
BY THIS EVENING. INITIALLY GIVEN THE VERY DRY LLVLS...EXPECTING
SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO FALL AS VIRGA. SOME MVFR CIGS COULD
DEVELOP AT SLK BY THIS EVENING...AS MOISTURE INCREASES ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS THIS
MORNING...TO BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY...WITH
EASTERLY FLW AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY INTO THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS...ESPECIALLY
AT SLK/MPV. FOG/BR WL BE LIMITED BY THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THREAT FOR SHOWERS. SFC HIGH PRES ACRS NORTHERN MAINE WL BUILD
INTO OUR TAF SITES ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. THE COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WL RESULT IN
FOG/BR AT SLK/MPV BOTH SAT AND SUN MORNINGS WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 201126
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. EXPECTING SKIES TO START OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS HOLD OFF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
UNTIL TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM WANT TO BRING SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN
NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EXTREME
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS
IS LIKELY A RESULT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE THIS MORNING...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH
PUTS THE REGION IN A BLOCKING PATTERN. GIVEN THIS...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON IS
LOW...AND WOULD ALSO EXPLAIN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE VARIOUS
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT IN BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH ACROSS VERMONT
TONIGHT...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EASTWARD. THUS...HAVE A SHARP POP GRADIENT FROM THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. THE
LOWEST POPS OVER EASTERN VERMONT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. MODELS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SHOWERS INTO VERMONT ON THURSDAY.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS VERMONT ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT
IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. ON
FRIDAY...UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC. THUS...DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY. HAVE JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY MARKS THE START
OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL FEATURE A
BLOCKING TYPE SCENARIO DEVELOPING ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. BOTH
ECMWF/GFS SHOWS A DEVELOPING CLOSED 5H CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND BUILDING HGHT RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA WL PUSH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS INTO OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C.
THESE TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S ACRS OUR REGION WITH
THIS COOLER MARITIME AIR WL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACTS ON EASTERN
VT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW. SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH BUILDING HGHTS ALOFT. THIS
WL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB...WITH BEST THERMAL RIDGE AND
WARMEST LLVL TEMPS ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS VERY WARM AIR MASS...HAS DIFFICULTIES ADVECTING INTO OUR
CWA...GIVEN PLACEMENT OF SFC RIDGE AND NW FLW ALOFT...BUT SHOULD
BY THE MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WL WARM BTWN
12-14C BY NEXT WEDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L80S
WARMER VALLEYS. WL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY AS BEST ULVL SUPPORT AND
MID LVL MOISTURE IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY....LIFR IN FOG WL PREVAIL AT MPV UNTIL
13Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WL SPREAD
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRNT. THESE CLOUDS WL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACRS NORTHERN NEW YORK TAF SITES BY 21Z TODAY...AND SPREAD INTO VT
BY THIS EVENING. INITIALLY GIVEN THE VERY DRY LLVLS...EXPECTING
SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO FALL AS VIRGA. SOME MVFR CIGS COULD
DEVELOP AT SLK BY THIS EVENING...AS MOISTURE INCREASES ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS THIS
MORNING...TO BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY...WITH
EASTERLY FLW AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY INTO THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS...ESPECIALLY
AT SLK/MPV. FOG/BR WL BE LIMITED BY THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THREAT FOR SHOWERS. SFC HIGH PRES ACRS NORTHERN MAINE WL BUILD
INTO OUR TAF SITES ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. THE COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WL RESULT IN
FOG/BR AT SLK/MPV BOTH SAT AND SUN MORNINGS WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 201126
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. EXPECTING SKIES TO START OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS HOLD OFF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
UNTIL TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM WANT TO BRING SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN
NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EXTREME
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS
IS LIKELY A RESULT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE THIS MORNING...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH
PUTS THE REGION IN A BLOCKING PATTERN. GIVEN THIS...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON IS
LOW...AND WOULD ALSO EXPLAIN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE VARIOUS
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT IN BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH ACROSS VERMONT
TONIGHT...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EASTWARD. THUS...HAVE A SHARP POP GRADIENT FROM THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. THE
LOWEST POPS OVER EASTERN VERMONT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. MODELS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SHOWERS INTO VERMONT ON THURSDAY.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS VERMONT ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT
IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. ON
FRIDAY...UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC. THUS...DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY. HAVE JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY MARKS THE START
OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL FEATURE A
BLOCKING TYPE SCENARIO DEVELOPING ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. BOTH
ECMWF/GFS SHOWS A DEVELOPING CLOSED 5H CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND BUILDING HGHT RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA WL PUSH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS INTO OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C.
THESE TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S ACRS OUR REGION WITH
THIS COOLER MARITIME AIR WL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACTS ON EASTERN
VT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW. SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH BUILDING HGHTS ALOFT. THIS
WL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB...WITH BEST THERMAL RIDGE AND
WARMEST LLVL TEMPS ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS VERY WARM AIR MASS...HAS DIFFICULTIES ADVECTING INTO OUR
CWA...GIVEN PLACEMENT OF SFC RIDGE AND NW FLW ALOFT...BUT SHOULD
BY THE MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WL WARM BTWN
12-14C BY NEXT WEDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L80S
WARMER VALLEYS. WL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY AS BEST ULVL SUPPORT AND
MID LVL MOISTURE IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY....LIFR IN FOG WL PREVAIL AT MPV UNTIL
13Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WL SPREAD
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRNT. THESE CLOUDS WL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACRS NORTHERN NEW YORK TAF SITES BY 21Z TODAY...AND SPREAD INTO VT
BY THIS EVENING. INITIALLY GIVEN THE VERY DRY LLVLS...EXPECTING
SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO FALL AS VIRGA. SOME MVFR CIGS COULD
DEVELOP AT SLK BY THIS EVENING...AS MOISTURE INCREASES ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS THIS
MORNING...TO BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY...WITH
EASTERLY FLW AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY INTO THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS...ESPECIALLY
AT SLK/MPV. FOG/BR WL BE LIMITED BY THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THREAT FOR SHOWERS. SFC HIGH PRES ACRS NORTHERN MAINE WL BUILD
INTO OUR TAF SITES ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. THE COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WL RESULT IN
FOG/BR AT SLK/MPV BOTH SAT AND SUN MORNINGS WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KALY 201055
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS SLOWLY
INCREASING LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ZONES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND IT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY HUMID AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOW OR MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FEATURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES OFF
THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE FLOW
AROUND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WESTWARD...AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWERING TO ONLY 20 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ERN QUEBEC...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND LASTING
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A REX TYPE BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL
QUEBEC...AND DOWNSTREAM OF JAMES BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS
UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
NEAR THE CATSKILLS FRIDAY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY
DRY.  THE BLOCKING RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON SATURDAY WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND NEW BRUNSWICK.  H850
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW...SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF BEFORE NOONTIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN
FROM NEW BRUNSWICK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW FORMS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.  OUR FCST AREA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF AND A BROADER HIGH
AMPLITUDE H500 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  THE H500 RIDGE
ACTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SE CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS/WPC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO
DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S AND PERHAPS SOME L80S OVER
THE VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK /TUESDAY/.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPTS GENERALLY IN THE
50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST....AND SOME MORNING
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY KICK OFF A FEW
SPRINKLES OR ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT OVERALL FAIR AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO DOMINATE INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT KPOU PRIOR TO NOONTIME. SCT-BKN CUMULUS 3.5-5 KFT AGL
AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER 23Z. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE
FCST AT ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 23Z TO 02Z/THU. THE BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR/VFR CIGS VSBYS WILL BE SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND
15 MPH. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE
TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 201044
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING THE AREA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 415 AM...LOCAL RADARS TRENDS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOWED
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BOTH WEAKENED AND BECOME SCATTERED.
STRONGER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED RECENTLY OVER EASTERN OHIO AND
WESTERN PA WHERE INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION.

H5 LOW OVER NRN MICHIGAN AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTION WILL
SLOWLY TRACK EAST TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES
ROTATING AROUND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NYS PRIMARILY WEST OF I81 THIS
MORNING WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN PTN OF FA AND
NORTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO FAIRLY HIGH PWATS (1.50-1.75
INCHES), MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING TALL/SKINNY CAPE AND A FAIRLY
DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS NOT A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT BUT MORE OF A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOP. SINCE ITS BEEN DRY
RECENTLY, RAINFALL AROUND 3 INCHES WILL BE NEEDED IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME (3 HOURS) BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING
BEGINS TO OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NY AND NRN TIER OF
PA WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR SE. DUE TO SOME INSTABILITY AND
FORCING WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC OF THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD AND RESIDE
OVER CENTRAL NY BY THURSDAY. PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE WET WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER CENTRAL NY AND HIGH CHC FOR NE PA. AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN VERY JUICY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AS UPPER LEVEL LOW FILLS AND MOVES EAST OF FA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BUT MAINLY
DRY BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SAME PTRN THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER CONTS WITH A
TROF OVER NEW ENG AND RDGG TO THE WEST. NEARLY STATIONARY WRM FNT
BNDRY OVER WRN NY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONV...AND KEEP CHANCE
OR SLGT CHANCE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PD. LL SELY FLOW WILL
KEEP COOLER AIR IN THE AREA AND AFTN TEMPS ESP BLO NRML. UPR LOW
SLOWLY DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENG CST ALLOWING A SLOW RETROGRADE OF
THE UPR RDG. THIS IN TURN SHD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL DRYING AND IMPRVG
WX SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HPC GUID SEEMED RSNBL AND WAS FLWD THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING AND MOSTLY VFR WITH EMBEDDED MVFR CIGS ARE PRESENT. EXPECT
FOG FROM LAST NIGHT TO LIFT SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS. IFR VISBYS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE... THUS DECIDED TO KEEP
MENTION OUT ATTM. EMBEDDED THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT ALSO DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT ALSO DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL FROM VFR TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT CLOSE TO 12Z.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WED AFTN-SUN...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA...AND
LGT OVRNGT FOG/ST.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...KAH







000
FXUS61 KALY 200903
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS SLOWLY
INCREASING LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ZONES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND IT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY HUMID AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOW OR MID 60S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FEATURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES OFF
THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE FLOW
AROUND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WESTWARD...AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWERING TO ONLY 20 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ERN QUEBEC...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND LASTING
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A REX TYPE BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL
QUEBEC...AND DOWNSTREAM OF JAMES BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS
UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
NEAR THE CATSKILLS FRIDAY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY
DRY.  THE BLOCKING RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON SATURDAY WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND NEW BRUNSWICK.  H850
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW...SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF BEFORE NOONTIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN
FROM NEW BRUNSWICK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW FORMS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.  OUR FCST AREA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF AND A BROADER HIGH
AMPLITUDE H500 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  THE H500 RIDGE
ACTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SE CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS/WPC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO
DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S AND PERHAPS SOME L80S OVER
THE VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK /TUESDAY/.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPTS GENERALLY IN THE
50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST....AND SOME MORNING
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY KICK OFF A FEW
SPRINKLES OR ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT OVERALL FAIR AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO DOMINATE INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS THIS
MORNING WITH SOME LOW STRATUS FORMING WITH THE INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. KPSF HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG FORMING...AND
THEN STRATUS. THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS IS FORECASTED IN THE 1.5-2.5
KFT AGL RANGE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU BTWN 09Z-12Z...AND SHOULD BURN OFF
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. KPSF MAY HAVE IT LINGER UNTIL 15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS 4-5 KFT AGL
AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER
22Z TODAY. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST AT ALL THE TAF
SITES BTWN 22Z TO 00Z/THU.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NT - THU NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND
15 MPH. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE
TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM






000
FXUS61 KALY 200903
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS SLOWLY
INCREASING LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ZONES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND IT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY HUMID AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOW OR MID 60S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FEATURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES OFF
THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE FLOW
AROUND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WESTWARD...AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWERING TO ONLY 20 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ERN QUEBEC...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND LASTING
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A REX TYPE BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL
QUEBEC...AND DOWNSTREAM OF JAMES BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS
UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
NEAR THE CATSKILLS FRIDAY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY
DRY.  THE BLOCKING RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON SATURDAY WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND NEW BRUNSWICK.  H850
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW...SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF BEFORE NOONTIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN
FROM NEW BRUNSWICK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW FORMS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.  OUR FCST AREA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF AND A BROADER HIGH
AMPLITUDE H500 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  THE H500 RIDGE
ACTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SE CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS/WPC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO
DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S AND PERHAPS SOME L80S OVER
THE VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK /TUESDAY/.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPTS GENERALLY IN THE
50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST....AND SOME MORNING
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY KICK OFF A FEW
SPRINKLES OR ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT OVERALL FAIR AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO DOMINATE INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS THIS
MORNING WITH SOME LOW STRATUS FORMING WITH THE INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. KPSF HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG FORMING...AND
THEN STRATUS. THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS IS FORECASTED IN THE 1.5-2.5
KFT AGL RANGE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU BTWN 09Z-12Z...AND SHOULD BURN OFF
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. KPSF MAY HAVE IT LINGER UNTIL 15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS 4-5 KFT AGL
AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER
22Z TODAY. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST AT ALL THE TAF
SITES BTWN 22Z TO 00Z/THU.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NT - THU NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND
15 MPH. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE
TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM






000
FXUS61 KALY 200903
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS SLOWLY
INCREASING LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ZONES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND IT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY HUMID AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOW OR MID 60S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FEATURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES OFF
THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE FLOW
AROUND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WESTWARD...AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWERING TO ONLY 20 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ERN QUEBEC...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND LASTING
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A REX TYPE BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL
QUEBEC...AND DOWNSTREAM OF JAMES BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS
UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
NEAR THE CATSKILLS FRIDAY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY
DRY.  THE BLOCKING RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON SATURDAY WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND NEW BRUNSWICK.  H850
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW...SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF BEFORE NOONTIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN
FROM NEW BRUNSWICK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW FORMS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.  OUR FCST AREA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF AND A BROADER HIGH
AMPLITUDE H500 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  THE H500 RIDGE
ACTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SE CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS/WPC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO
DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S AND PERHAPS SOME L80S OVER
THE VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK /TUESDAY/.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPTS GENERALLY IN THE
50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST....AND SOME MORNING
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY KICK OFF A FEW
SPRINKLES OR ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT OVERALL FAIR AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO DOMINATE INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS THIS
MORNING WITH SOME LOW STRATUS FORMING WITH THE INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. KPSF HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG FORMING...AND
THEN STRATUS. THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS IS FORECASTED IN THE 1.5-2.5
KFT AGL RANGE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU BTWN 09Z-12Z...AND SHOULD BURN OFF
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. KPSF MAY HAVE IT LINGER UNTIL 15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS 4-5 KFT AGL
AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER
22Z TODAY. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST AT ALL THE TAF
SITES BTWN 22Z TO 00Z/THU.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NT - THU NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND
15 MPH. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE
TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM






000
FXUS61 KALY 200903
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS SLOWLY
INCREASING LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ZONES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND IT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY HUMID AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOW OR MID 60S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FEATURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES OFF
THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE FLOW
AROUND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WESTWARD...AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWERING TO ONLY 20 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ERN QUEBEC...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND LASTING
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A REX TYPE BLOCK SETS UP OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE OVER N-CNTRL
QUEBEC...AND DOWNSTREAM OF JAMES BAY.  A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS
UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
NEAR THE CATSKILLS FRIDAY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY
DRY.  THE BLOCKING RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON SATURDAY WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND NEW BRUNSWICK.  H850
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW...SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF BEFORE NOONTIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN
FROM NEW BRUNSWICK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A BROAD CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW FORMS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.  OUR FCST AREA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF AND A BROADER HIGH
AMPLITUDE H500 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS.  THE H500 RIDGE
ACTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SE CANADA.  DRY WX IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS/WPC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE LOOKS TO
DOMINATE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH M60S TO L70S FOR HIGHS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MID TO U70S AND PERHAPS SOME L80S OVER
THE VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK /TUESDAY/.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPTS GENERALLY IN THE
50S TO L60S.  AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH THE SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST....AND SOME MORNING
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY KICK OFF A FEW
SPRINKLES OR ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT OVERALL FAIR AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO DOMINATE INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS THIS
MORNING WITH SOME LOW STRATUS FORMING WITH THE INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. KPSF HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG FORMING...AND
THEN STRATUS. THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS IS FORECASTED IN THE 1.5-2.5
KFT AGL RANGE AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU BTWN 09Z-12Z...AND SHOULD BURN OFF
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. KPSF MAY HAVE IT LINGER UNTIL 15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS 4-5 KFT AGL
AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER
22Z TODAY. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST AT ALL THE TAF
SITES BTWN 22Z TO 00Z/THU.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NT - THU NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND
15 MPH. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE
TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM






000
FXUS61 KBTV 200851
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
451 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. EXPECTING SKIES TO START OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS HOLD OFF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
UNTIL TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM WANT TO BRING SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN
NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EXTREME
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS
IS LIKELY A RESULT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE THIS MORNING...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH
PUTS THE REGION IN A BLOCKING PATTERN. GIVEN THIS...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON IS
LOW...AND WOULD ALSO EXPLAIN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE VARIOUS
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT IN BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH ACROSS VERMONT
TONIGHT...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EASTWARD. THUS...HAVE A SHARP POP GRADIENT FROM THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. THE
LOWEST POPS OVER EASTERN VERMONT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. MODELS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SHOWERS INTO VERMONT ON THURSDAY.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS VERMONT ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT
IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. ON
FRIDAY...UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC. THUS...DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY. HAVE JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY MARKS THE START
OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL FEATURE A
BLOCKING TYPE SCENARIO DEVELOPING ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. BOTH
ECMWF/GFS SHOWS A DEVELOPING CLOSED 5H CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND BUILDING HGHT RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA WL PUSH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS INTO OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C.
THESE TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S ACRS OUR REGION WITH
THIS COOLER MARITIME AIR WL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACTS ON EASTERN
VT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW. SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH BUILDING HGHTS ALOFT. THIS
WL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB...WITH BEST THERMAL RIDGE AND
WARMEST LLVL TEMPS ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS VERY WARM AIR MASS...HAS DIFFICULTIES ADVECTING INTO OUR
CWA...GIVEN PLACEMENT OF SFC RIDGE AND NW FLW ALOFT...BUT SHOULD
BY THE MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WL WARM BTWN
12-14C BY NEXT WEDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L80S
WARMER VALLEYS. WL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY AS BEST ULVL SUPPORT AND
MID LVL MOISTURE IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF
FOG THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY CHCS FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTN/EVENING
ACRS NORTHERN NY. CRNT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRES ACRS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY WITH A SFC WARM FRNT LIFTING ACRS WESTERN/CENTRAL NY
ATTM. THIS FEATURE HAS PRODUCE SOME MID LVL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ACRS NNY. THIS FACTORS WL LIMIT FOG/BR
POTENTIAL AT MSS/SLK...WL USE A TEMPO FOR IFR AT SLK BTWN 07-10Z.
OTHERWISE...STILL THINKING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT MPV
BY 07Z THRU 12Z THIS MORNING IN FOG. FOG WL LIFT BY 13Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL SITES TODAY. CLOUDS WL CONT TO
INCREASE AND THICKEN FROM SW TO NE TODAY ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY ACRS THE DACKS BY 21Z
TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS TWD 00Z THIS EVENING. LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS THIS
MORNING WL BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...EXCEPT EAST AT
MSS.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VIS...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MPV. FOG/BR WL BE LIMITED BY
THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SHOWERS. SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
NORTHERN MAINE WL BUILD INTO OUR TAF SITES ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. THE COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WL RESULT IN FOG/BR AT SLK/MPV BOTH SAT AND SUN MORNINGS
WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER







000
FXUS61 KBTV 200851
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
451 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. EXPECTING SKIES TO START OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS HOLD OFF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
UNTIL TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM WANT TO BRING SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN
NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EXTREME
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS
IS LIKELY A RESULT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE THIS MORNING...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH
PUTS THE REGION IN A BLOCKING PATTERN. GIVEN THIS...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON IS
LOW...AND WOULD ALSO EXPLAIN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE VARIOUS
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT IN BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH ACROSS VERMONT
TONIGHT...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EASTWARD. THUS...HAVE A SHARP POP GRADIENT FROM THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. THE
LOWEST POPS OVER EASTERN VERMONT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. MODELS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SHOWERS INTO VERMONT ON THURSDAY.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS VERMONT ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT
IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. ON
FRIDAY...UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC. THUS...DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY. HAVE JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY MARKS THE START
OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL FEATURE A
BLOCKING TYPE SCENARIO DEVELOPING ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. BOTH
ECMWF/GFS SHOWS A DEVELOPING CLOSED 5H CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND BUILDING HGHT RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA WL PUSH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS INTO OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C.
THESE TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S ACRS OUR REGION WITH
THIS COOLER MARITIME AIR WL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACTS ON EASTERN
VT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW. SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH BUILDING HGHTS ALOFT. THIS
WL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB...WITH BEST THERMAL RIDGE AND
WARMEST LLVL TEMPS ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS VERY WARM AIR MASS...HAS DIFFICULTIES ADVECTING INTO OUR
CWA...GIVEN PLACEMENT OF SFC RIDGE AND NW FLW ALOFT...BUT SHOULD
BY THE MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WL WARM BTWN
12-14C BY NEXT WEDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L80S
WARMER VALLEYS. WL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY AS BEST ULVL SUPPORT AND
MID LVL MOISTURE IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF
FOG THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY CHCS FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTN/EVENING
ACRS NORTHERN NY. CRNT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRES ACRS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY WITH A SFC WARM FRNT LIFTING ACRS WESTERN/CENTRAL NY
ATTM. THIS FEATURE HAS PRODUCE SOME MID LVL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ACRS NNY. THIS FACTORS WL LIMIT FOG/BR
POTENTIAL AT MSS/SLK...WL USE A TEMPO FOR IFR AT SLK BTWN 07-10Z.
OTHERWISE...STILL THINKING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT MPV
BY 07Z THRU 12Z THIS MORNING IN FOG. FOG WL LIFT BY 13Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL SITES TODAY. CLOUDS WL CONT TO
INCREASE AND THICKEN FROM SW TO NE TODAY ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY ACRS THE DACKS BY 21Z
TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS TWD 00Z THIS EVENING. LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS THIS
MORNING WL BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...EXCEPT EAST AT
MSS.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VIS...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MPV. FOG/BR WL BE LIMITED BY
THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SHOWERS. SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
NORTHERN MAINE WL BUILD INTO OUR TAF SITES ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. THE COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WL RESULT IN FOG/BR AT SLK/MPV BOTH SAT AND SUN MORNINGS
WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBUF 200824
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
424 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS. A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM MAY BE LEFTOVER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN FREE WHILE CONTINUING TO REMAIN WARM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT IS FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE
AND TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. BEHIND THIS
WARM FRONT DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS OHIO AND
WESTERN PA...WHILE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER...GENESEE VALLEY AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE 50S. CLOUDINESS IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARMER AIR
PUSHING NORTHWARD IS FOUND ACROSS WNY...WHILE TO THE EAST MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE FOUND ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION.

ALOFT A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FOUND OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH A SURFACE LOW ALSO REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A FEW SUBTLE CONVECTIVELY
AUGMENTS VORTICITY MAXES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW.

FOR TODAY EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AS THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT SLOWLY EDGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. ACTIVITY
SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE MORNING WITH ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT IN ADDITION TO INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING. ALSO
AIDING IN LOW LEVEL LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW
LEVEL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
PWATS RISE TOWARDS 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES TODAY WITHIN A VERY LIGHT
SYNOPTIC FLOW. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TO THE REGION AS SLOW MOVING ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO DROP A HEAVY AMOUNT OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME. THIS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCALIZED AND WILL
JUST CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO PRODUCT. WHILE
WE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SBCAPES 500 TO 1000
J/KG...MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY ONLY BRING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MORE LIKELY.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT AND
FOCUSING BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LATE DAY INSTABILITY...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LIFT
OF THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WNY THIS EVENING. BY LATE OVERNIGHT THE BULK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOWARDS THE EAST IN PROXIMITY TO
THE WARM FRONT...WITH JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WNY UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL PUSH TO NORMAL...OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS BE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
THE REGION...WITH 80S MOST LIKELY TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL BE
FOUND. TONIGHT A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
60S WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT FLOW FEATURING A PSEUDO REX BLOCK OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BREAK DOWN AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG H25
WINDS RACING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND KICK OUT THE DOWNSTREAM CYCLONE. A BURGEONING RIDGE WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
OVER OUR REGION. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL INTO AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
MODERATELY HIGH HUMIDITY.

THE ILL DEFINED REMNANTS OF AN H5 LOW IN THE VCNTY OF GEORGIAN BAY
THURSDAY MORNING WILL TRACK TO THE EAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTION
WILL DRAG ONE LAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BEING FOUND
EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING NEAR THE SFC
FRONT WILL BE FOUND. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 WILL BE A LITTLE
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...BUT LIGHT STEERING WINDS EAST OF
ROCHESTER WILL PERSIST...SO THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
SOME SLOW MOVING MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WHILE THE ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT...A WARM AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS (C) SHOULD ENABLE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. THE MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
WARMER AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AFTER OUR RECENT STRETCH OF FALL LIKE
WEATHER.

THE SHORTWAVE AND SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE THE
LEFTOVER SHOWERS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF NIGHT
WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES LOWER (UP 50S-LOW 60S) THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...AN INTERESTING SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE TO OUR
WEST. AN AMPLIFYING H5 RIDGE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND THIS WILL OVERLAY AN AREA OF
WEAKNESS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SHARPEN
A THERMAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE ALIGNED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS
IN THE VCNTY OF THIS BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST...OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD
BE MAINLY RAIN FREE. SINCE A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION THOUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...PARTICULAR IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL THUS
MAINTAIN LOW CHC POPS FROM CONTINUITY.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE A STRONG SFC
HIGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
NEW YORK. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A THERMAL BOUNDARY IN
PLACE FROM LAKE HURON TO LAKE ERIE AND WRN PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE BULK
OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD THUS BE RAIN FREE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER AS A 593DM H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE VCNTY OF CAPE COD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CLOSE TO 80 IN MANY AREAS MONDAY...AND THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 60.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 06Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM
FRONT PENETRATED DEEPER INTO WNY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SEVERAL
POCKETS OF ENERGY ALOFT PASSING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH BRIEF MVFR IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS IS QUITE POSSIBLE. TONIGHT WITHIN THE MOIST
AIRMASS SOME MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ALONG
WITH LOWERING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ATTENDANT LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY MORNING
TO NEAR THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING WHERE IT
WILL DISSIPATE IN PLACE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL
SLOWLY PASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBGM 200816
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
416 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING THE AREA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 415 AM...LOCAL RADARS TRENDS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOWED
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BOTH WEAKENED AND BECOME SCATTERED.
STRONGER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED RECENTLY OVER EASTERN OHIO AND
WESTERN PA WHERE INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION.

H5 LOW OVER NRN MICHIGAN AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTION WILL
SLOWLY TRACK EAST TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES
ROTATING AROUND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NYS PRIMARILY WEST OF I81 THIS
MORNING WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN PTN OF FA AND
NORTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO FAIRLY HIGH PWATS (1.50-1.75
INCHES), MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING TALL/SKINNY CAPE AND A FAIRLY
DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS NOT A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT BUT MORE OF A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOP. SINCE ITS BEEN DRY
RECENTLY, RAINFALL AROUND 3 INCHES WILL BE NEEDED IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME (3 HOURS) BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING
BEGINS TO OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NY AND NRN TIER OF
PA WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR SE. DUE TO SOME INSTABILITY AND
FORCING WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC OF THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD AND RESIDE
OVER CENTRAL NY BY THURSDAY. PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE WET WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER CENTRAL NY AND HIGH CHC FOR NE PA. AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN VERY JUICY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AS UPPER LEVEL LOW FILLS AND MOVES EAST OF FA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BUT MAINLY
DRY BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SAME PTRN THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER CONTS WITH A
TROF OVER NEW ENG AND RDGG TO THE WEST. NEARLY STATIONARY WRM FNT
BNDRY OVER WRN NY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONV...AND KEEP CHANCE
OR SLGT CHANCE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PD. LL SELY FLOW WILL
KEEP COOLER AIR IN THE AREA AND AFTN TEMPS ESP BLO NRML. UPR LOW
SLOWLY DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENG CST ALLOWING A SLOW RETROGRADE OF
THE UPR RDG. THIS IN TURN SHD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL DRYING AND IMPRVG
WX SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HPC GUID SEEMED RSNBL AND WAS FLWD THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION AS A
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO
DEVELOP AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH KELM FALLING TO IFR IN VISBYS.
KBGM AND KITH MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS THIS THROUGH 13Z AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS MAY HAVE THUNDER EMBEDDED WITHIN THEM BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN TAF ATTM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WED AFTN-SUN...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA...AND
LGT OVRNGT FOG/ST.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...KAH







000
FXUS61 KBGM 200816
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
416 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING THE AREA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 415 AM...LOCAL RADARS TRENDS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOWED
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BOTH WEAKENED AND BECOME SCATTERED.
STRONGER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED RECENTLY OVER EASTERN OHIO AND
WESTERN PA WHERE INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION.

H5 LOW OVER NRN MICHIGAN AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTION WILL
SLOWLY TRACK EAST TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES
ROTATING AROUND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NYS PRIMARILY WEST OF I81 THIS
MORNING WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN PTN OF FA AND
NORTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO FAIRLY HIGH PWATS (1.50-1.75
INCHES), MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING TALL/SKINNY CAPE AND A FAIRLY
DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS NOT A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT BUT MORE OF A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOP. SINCE ITS BEEN DRY
RECENTLY, RAINFALL AROUND 3 INCHES WILL BE NEEDED IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME (3 HOURS) BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING
BEGINS TO OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NY AND NRN TIER OF
PA WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR SE. DUE TO SOME INSTABILITY AND
FORCING WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC OF THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD AND RESIDE
OVER CENTRAL NY BY THURSDAY. PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE WET WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER CENTRAL NY AND HIGH CHC FOR NE PA. AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN VERY JUICY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AS UPPER LEVEL LOW FILLS AND MOVES EAST OF FA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BUT MAINLY
DRY BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SAME PTRN THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER CONTS WITH A
TROF OVER NEW ENG AND RDGG TO THE WEST. NEARLY STATIONARY WRM FNT
BNDRY OVER WRN NY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONV...AND KEEP CHANCE
OR SLGT CHANCE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PD. LL SELY FLOW WILL
KEEP COOLER AIR IN THE AREA AND AFTN TEMPS ESP BLO NRML. UPR LOW
SLOWLY DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENG CST ALLOWING A SLOW RETROGRADE OF
THE UPR RDG. THIS IN TURN SHD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL DRYING AND IMPRVG
WX SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HPC GUID SEEMED RSNBL AND WAS FLWD THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION AS A
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO
DEVELOP AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH KELM FALLING TO IFR IN VISBYS.
KBGM AND KITH MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS THIS THROUGH 13Z AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS MAY HAVE THUNDER EMBEDDED WITHIN THEM BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN TAF ATTM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WED AFTN-SUN...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA...AND
LGT OVRNGT FOG/ST.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...KAH







000
FXUS61 KBGM 200816
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
416 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING THE AREA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 415 AM...LOCAL RADARS TRENDS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOWED
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BOTH WEAKENED AND BECOME SCATTERED.
STRONGER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED RECENTLY OVER EASTERN OHIO AND
WESTERN PA WHERE INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION.

H5 LOW OVER NRN MICHIGAN AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTION WILL
SLOWLY TRACK EAST TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES
ROTATING AROUND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NYS PRIMARILY WEST OF I81 THIS
MORNING WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN PTN OF FA AND
NORTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO FAIRLY HIGH PWATS (1.50-1.75
INCHES), MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING TALL/SKINNY CAPE AND A FAIRLY
DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS NOT A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT BUT MORE OF A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOP. SINCE ITS BEEN DRY
RECENTLY, RAINFALL AROUND 3 INCHES WILL BE NEEDED IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME (3 HOURS) BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING
BEGINS TO OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NY AND NRN TIER OF
PA WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR SE. DUE TO SOME INSTABILITY AND
FORCING WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC OF THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD AND RESIDE
OVER CENTRAL NY BY THURSDAY. PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE WET WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER CENTRAL NY AND HIGH CHC FOR NE PA. AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN VERY JUICY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AS UPPER LEVEL LOW FILLS AND MOVES EAST OF FA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BUT MAINLY
DRY BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SAME PTRN THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER CONTS WITH A
TROF OVER NEW ENG AND RDGG TO THE WEST. NEARLY STATIONARY WRM FNT
BNDRY OVER WRN NY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONV...AND KEEP CHANCE
OR SLGT CHANCE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PD. LL SELY FLOW WILL
KEEP COOLER AIR IN THE AREA AND AFTN TEMPS ESP BLO NRML. UPR LOW
SLOWLY DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENG CST ALLOWING A SLOW RETROGRADE OF
THE UPR RDG. THIS IN TURN SHD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL DRYING AND IMPRVG
WX SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HPC GUID SEEMED RSNBL AND WAS FLWD THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION AS A
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO
DEVELOP AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH KELM FALLING TO IFR IN VISBYS.
KBGM AND KITH MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS THIS THROUGH 13Z AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS MAY HAVE THUNDER EMBEDDED WITHIN THEM BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN TAF ATTM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WED AFTN-SUN...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA...AND
LGT OVRNGT FOG/ST.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...KAH







000
FXUS61 KBGM 200816
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
416 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING THE AREA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 415 AM...LOCAL RADARS TRENDS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOWED
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK BOTH WEAKENED AND BECOME SCATTERED.
STRONGER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED RECENTLY OVER EASTERN OHIO AND
WESTERN PA WHERE INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION.

H5 LOW OVER NRN MICHIGAN AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTION WILL
SLOWLY TRACK EAST TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES
ROTATING AROUND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NYS PRIMARILY WEST OF I81 THIS
MORNING WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN PTN OF FA AND
NORTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO FAIRLY HIGH PWATS (1.50-1.75
INCHES), MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING TALL/SKINNY CAPE AND A FAIRLY
DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS NOT A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT BUT MORE OF A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOP. SINCE ITS BEEN DRY
RECENTLY, RAINFALL AROUND 3 INCHES WILL BE NEEDED IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME (3 HOURS) BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING
BEGINS TO OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NY AND NRN TIER OF
PA WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR SE. DUE TO SOME INSTABILITY AND
FORCING WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC OF THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD AND RESIDE
OVER CENTRAL NY BY THURSDAY. PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE WET WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER CENTRAL NY AND HIGH CHC FOR NE PA. AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN VERY JUICY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AS UPPER LEVEL LOW FILLS AND MOVES EAST OF FA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BUT MAINLY
DRY BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SAME PTRN THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER CONTS WITH A
TROF OVER NEW ENG AND RDGG TO THE WEST. NEARLY STATIONARY WRM FNT
BNDRY OVER WRN NY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONV...AND KEEP CHANCE
OR SLGT CHANCE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PD. LL SELY FLOW WILL
KEEP COOLER AIR IN THE AREA AND AFTN TEMPS ESP BLO NRML. UPR LOW
SLOWLY DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENG CST ALLOWING A SLOW RETROGRADE OF
THE UPR RDG. THIS IN TURN SHD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL DRYING AND IMPRVG
WX SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HPC GUID SEEMED RSNBL AND WAS FLWD THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION AS A
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO
DEVELOP AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH KELM FALLING TO IFR IN VISBYS.
KBGM AND KITH MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS THIS THROUGH 13Z AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS MAY HAVE THUNDER EMBEDDED WITHIN THEM BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN TAF ATTM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WED AFTN-SUN...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA...AND
LGT OVRNGT FOG/ST.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...KAH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 200810
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
410 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS. A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM MAY BE LEFTOVER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN FREE WHILE CONTINUING TO REMAIN WARM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT IS FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE
AND TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. BEHIND THIS
WARM FRONT DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS OHIO AND
WESTERN PA...WHILE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER...GENESEE VALLEY AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE 50S. CLOUDINESS IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARMER AIR
PUSHING NORTHWARD IS FOUND ACROSS WNY...WHILE TO THE EAST MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE FOUND ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION.

ALOFT A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FOUND OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH A SURFACE LOW ALSO REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A FEW SUBTLE CONVECTIVELY
AUGMENTS VORTICITY MAXES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW.

FOR TODAY EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AS THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT SLOWLY EDGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. ACTIVITY
SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE MORNING WITH ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT IN ADDITION TO INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING. ALSO
AIDING IN LOW LEVEL LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW
LEVEL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
PWATS RISE TOWARDS 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES TODAY WITHIN A VERY LIGHT
SYNOPTIC FLOW. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TO THE REGION AS SLOW MOVING ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO DROP A HEAVY AMOUNT OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME. THIS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCALIZED AND WILL
JUST CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO PRODUCT. WHILE
WE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SBCAPES 500 TO 1000
J/KG...MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY ONLY BRING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MORE LIKELY.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT AND
FOCUSING BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LATE DAY INSTABILITY...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LIFT
OF THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WNY THIS EVENING. BY LATE OVERNIGHT THE BULK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOWARDS THE EAST IN PROXIMITY TO
THE WARM FRONT...WITH JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WNY UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL PUSH TO NORMAL...OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS BE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
THE REGION...WITH 80S MOST LIKELY TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL BE
FOUND. TONIGHT A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
60S WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT FLOW FEATURING A PSEUDO REX BLOCK OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BREAK DOWN AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG H25
WINDS RACING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND KICK OUT THE DOWNSTREAM CYCLONE. A BURGEONING RIDGE WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
OVER OUR REGION. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL INTO AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
MODERATELY HIGH HUMIDITY.

THE ILL DEFINED REMNANTS OF AN H5 LOW IN THE VCNTY OF GEORGIAN BAY
THURSDAY MORNING WILL TRACK TO THE EAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTION
WILL DRAG ONE LAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BEING FOUND
EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING NEAR THE SFC
FRONT WILL BE FOUND. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 WILL BE A LITTLE
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...BUT LIGHT STEERING WINDS EAST OF
ROCHESTER WILL PERSIST...SO THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
SOME SLOW MOVING MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WHILE THE ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT...A WARM AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS (C) SHOULD ENABLE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. THE MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
WARMER AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AFTER OUR RECENT STRETCH OF FALL LIKE
WEATHER.

THE SHORTWAVE AND SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE THE
LEFTOVER SHOWERS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF NIGHT
WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES LOWER (UP 50S-LOW 60S) THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...AN INTERESTING SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE TO OUR
WEST. AN AMPLIFYING H5 RIDGE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND THIS WILL OVERLAY AN AREA OF
WEAKNESS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SHARPEN
A THERMAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE ALIGNED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS
IN THE VCNTY OF THIS BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST...OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD
BE MAINLY RAIN FREE. SINCE A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION THOUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...PARTICULAR IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL THUS
MAINTAIN LOW CHC POPS FROM CONTINUITY.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE A STRONG SFC
HIGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
NEW YORK. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A THERMAL BOUNDARY IN
PLACE FROM LAKE HURON TO LAKE ERIE AND WRN PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE BULK
OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD THUS BE RAIN FREE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER AS A 593DM H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE VCNTY OF CAP COD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CLOSE TO 80 IN MANY AREAS MONDAY...AND THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 06Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM
FRONT PENETRATED DEEPER INTO WNY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SEVERAL
POCKETS OF ENERGY ALOFT PASSING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH BRIEF MVFR IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS IS QUITE POSSIBLE. TONIGHT WITHIN THE MOIST
AIRMASS SOME MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ALONG
WITH LOWERING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ATTENDANT LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY MORNING
TO NEAR THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING WHERE IT
WILL DISSIPATE IN PLACE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL
SLOWLY PASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 200810
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
410 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS. A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM MAY BE LEFTOVER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN FREE WHILE CONTINUING TO REMAIN WARM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT IS FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE
AND TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. BEHIND THIS
WARM FRONT DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS OHIO AND
WESTERN PA...WHILE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER...GENESEE VALLEY AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE 50S. CLOUDINESS IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARMER AIR
PUSHING NORTHWARD IS FOUND ACROSS WNY...WHILE TO THE EAST MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE FOUND ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION.

ALOFT A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FOUND OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH A SURFACE LOW ALSO REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A FEW SUBTLE CONVECTIVELY
AUGMENTS VORTICITY MAXES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW.

FOR TODAY EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AS THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT SLOWLY EDGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. ACTIVITY
SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE MORNING WITH ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT IN ADDITION TO INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING. ALSO
AIDING IN LOW LEVEL LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW
LEVEL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
PWATS RISE TOWARDS 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES TODAY WITHIN A VERY LIGHT
SYNOPTIC FLOW. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TO THE REGION AS SLOW MOVING ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO DROP A HEAVY AMOUNT OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME. THIS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCALIZED AND WILL
JUST CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO PRODUCT. WHILE
WE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SBCAPES 500 TO 1000
J/KG...MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY ONLY BRING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MORE LIKELY.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT AND
FOCUSING BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LATE DAY INSTABILITY...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LIFT
OF THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WNY THIS EVENING. BY LATE OVERNIGHT THE BULK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOWARDS THE EAST IN PROXIMITY TO
THE WARM FRONT...WITH JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WNY UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL PUSH TO NORMAL...OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS BE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
THE REGION...WITH 80S MOST LIKELY TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL BE
FOUND. TONIGHT A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
60S WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT FLOW FEATURING A PSEUDO REX BLOCK OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BREAK DOWN AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG H25
WINDS RACING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND KICK OUT THE DOWNSTREAM CYCLONE. A BURGEONING RIDGE WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
OVER OUR REGION. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL INTO AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
MODERATELY HIGH HUMIDITY.

THE ILL DEFINED REMNANTS OF AN H5 LOW IN THE VCNTY OF GEORGIAN BAY
THURSDAY MORNING WILL TRACK TO THE EAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTION
WILL DRAG ONE LAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BEING FOUND
EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING NEAR THE SFC
FRONT WILL BE FOUND. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 WILL BE A LITTLE
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...BUT LIGHT STEERING WINDS EAST OF
ROCHESTER WILL PERSIST...SO THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
SOME SLOW MOVING MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WHILE THE ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT...A WARM AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS (C) SHOULD ENABLE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. THE MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
WARMER AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AFTER OUR RECENT STRETCH OF FALL LIKE
WEATHER.

THE SHORTWAVE AND SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE THE
LEFTOVER SHOWERS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF NIGHT
WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES LOWER (UP 50S-LOW 60S) THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...AN INTERESTING SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE TO OUR
WEST. AN AMPLIFYING H5 RIDGE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND THIS WILL OVERLAY AN AREA OF
WEAKNESS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SHARPEN
A THERMAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE ALIGNED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS
IN THE VCNTY OF THIS BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST...OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD
BE MAINLY RAIN FREE. SINCE A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION THOUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...PARTICULAR IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL THUS
MAINTAIN LOW CHC POPS FROM CONTINUITY.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE A STRONG SFC
HIGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
NEW YORK. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A THERMAL BOUNDARY IN
PLACE FROM LAKE HURON TO LAKE ERIE AND WRN PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE BULK
OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD THUS BE RAIN FREE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER AS A 593DM H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE VCNTY OF CAP COD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CLOSE TO 80 IN MANY AREAS MONDAY...AND THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 06Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM
FRONT PENETRATED DEEPER INTO WNY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SEVERAL
POCKETS OF ENERGY ALOFT PASSING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH BRIEF MVFR IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS IS QUITE POSSIBLE. TONIGHT WITHIN THE MOIST
AIRMASS SOME MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ALONG
WITH LOWERING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ATTENDANT LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY MORNING
TO NEAR THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING WHERE IT
WILL DISSIPATE IN PLACE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL
SLOWLY PASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KOKX 200743
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
343 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BROAD AREA OF HI PRES FROM QUEBEC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AT 7Z. A
BREAK IN THE MID CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG THRU
SUNRISE...MAINLY IN THE OUTLYING AREAS.

DEVELOPING SE FLOW TODAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE HANGING
ON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AREAS...MOST OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE PTCLDY AND DRY. ACROSS THE FAR WRN/NWRN FRINGE...FALLING
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE NAM COULD
SPRING SOME SHRA/TSTMS. MAIN THREAT STILL W OF THE CWA WITH THE
EMBEDDED SHRTWV NOT ARRIVING TIL ABOUT 00Z.

TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT OR JUST BLW CLIMO. FCST IS CLOSE TO THE GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY WANES WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A LOSS OF
SFC HEATING. THEREFORE THE SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MINIMAL
EFFECT ATTM AND PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SHRA AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA
THIS EVE/TNGT. ANY TSTMS WOULD NEED TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE
STABLE MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN THE
FCST FOR TNGT.

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER THE UP OF MI
WILL DROP HEIGHTS ON THU AND ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER SHRA OR TSTMS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH A MARINE STRATUS
DECK LIKELY PENETRATING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. INCLUDED TSTMS ONLY
ON THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SHRA
ELSEWHERE. WHERE THE INSTABILITY DOES MATERIALIZE...THE SETUP IS
RIPE FOR MULTICELLULAR HVY RAINERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND PW/S
ABOUT 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TEMPS COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SET OFF SOME
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS. SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST UNDER 1000
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A LACK OF ANY
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM...THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.

OMEGA BLOCK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE. AN EXTENDED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EVEN IN THE NYC METRO REGION.

THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY VFR EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY
STRATUS AND FOG OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO FOR A FEW HOURS.

THEN EXPECT FEW TO SCT CU TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANY
ACTIVITY WOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN TERMINAL FORECASTS.

LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST/SOUTH AT 6 TO 11 KTS THIS AFTERNOON MOST
TERMINALS.

WINDS LIGHTEN BY EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KTS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OFF THE SOUND WILL
EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS. TIMING OF WIND SHIFT
MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KTS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 KFT BEFORE
12Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 KFT BEFORE
12Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS. AS SUCH...SUB VFR POSSIBLE.
.FRI-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THU. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRI THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GUSTS ON
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE...AND SLIGHTLY LESS ON
SUNDAY. GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AS OF NOW. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU...MAINLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NJ AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HVY RAIN...HOWEVER BASIN AVE PCPN OF LESS THAN 1/4
INCH IS EXPECTED ATTM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM ANY OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP







000
FXUS61 KOKX 200743
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
343 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FOR FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BROAD AREA OF HI PRES FROM QUEBEC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AT 7Z. A
BREAK IN THE MID CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG THRU
SUNRISE...MAINLY IN THE OUTLYING AREAS.

DEVELOPING SE FLOW TODAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE HANGING
ON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AREAS...MOST OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE PTCLDY AND DRY. ACROSS THE FAR WRN/NWRN FRINGE...FALLING
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE NAM COULD
SPRING SOME SHRA/TSTMS. MAIN THREAT STILL W OF THE CWA WITH THE
EMBEDDED SHRTWV NOT ARRIVING TIL ABOUT 00Z.

TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT OR JUST BLW CLIMO. FCST IS CLOSE TO THE GMOS25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY WANES WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH A LOSS OF
SFC HEATING. THEREFORE THE SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MINIMAL
EFFECT ATTM AND PRODUCE ONLY A FEW SHRA AS IT TRAVERSES THE CWA
THIS EVE/TNGT. ANY TSTMS WOULD NEED TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE
STABLE MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT...HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSTMS IN THE
FCST FOR TNGT.

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPR LOW SPINNING OVER THE UP OF MI
WILL DROP HEIGHTS ON THU AND ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER SHRA OR TSTMS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...WITH A MARINE STRATUS
DECK LIKELY PENETRATING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. INCLUDED TSTMS ONLY
ON THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY SHRA
ELSEWHERE. WHERE THE INSTABILITY DOES MATERIALIZE...THE SETUP IS
RIPE FOR MULTICELLULAR HVY RAINERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND PW/S
ABOUT 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

TEMPS COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SET OFF SOME
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS. SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST UNDER 1000
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A LACK OF ANY
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM...THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.

OMEGA BLOCK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE. AN EXTENDED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...EVEN IN THE NYC METRO REGION.

THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY VFR EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY
STRATUS AND FOG OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO FOR A FEW HOURS.

THEN EXPECT FEW TO SCT CU TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ANY
ACTIVITY WOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN TERMINAL FORECASTS.

LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST/SOUTH AT 6 TO 11 KTS THIS AFTERNOON MOST
TERMINALS.

WINDS LIGHTEN BY EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KTS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OFF THE SOUND WILL
EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS. TIMING OF WIND SHIFT
MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KTS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 KFT BEFORE
12Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: STRATUS IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 KFT BEFORE
12Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS. AS SUCH...SUB VFR POSSIBLE.
.FRI-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THRU THU. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRI THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. GUSTS ON
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE...AND SLIGHTLY LESS ON
SUNDAY. GUSTS AT OR JUST ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AS OF NOW. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU...MAINLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NJ AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HVY RAIN...HOWEVER BASIN AVE PCPN OF LESS THAN 1/4
INCH IS EXPECTED ATTM. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM ANY OF THIS TSTM ACTIVITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP






000
FXUS61 KBTV 200730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WITH DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNE