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000
FXUS61 KBUF 030355
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1155 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION BRINGS
FAIR WEATHER WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH MOVES TO
THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A RETURN
OF HOT WEATHER. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS IN THE PROCESS OF FALLING
APART ACROSS NEW YORK STATE EVEN AS IT TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST. DRIER
AIR AND CLEARING SKIES IN ITS WAKE CAN BE DETECTED ON SATELLITE
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND THIS
CLEARING IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT THIS PERIOD OF CLEARING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS
ANY CLEARING SHOULD AID IN RADIATIVE COOLING THAT...IN COMBINATION
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...SHOULD GENERATE LOW STRATUS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THAT WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY-MID MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S COURTESY
OF THE HIGH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ACROSS NEW YORK WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH MORNING CLOUDS SLOWLY BREAKING UP AND LIFTING FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL
BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. FOR OUR REGION...THIS IS MOST APPARENT IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS INCREASES 850MB TEMPERATURES TO +18C BY 00Z
FRIDAY. THERE MAY SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE DAY TO BE SUNNY WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALSO
DOWNSLOPE A BIT NORTH OF I-90. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP VERY MUCH OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
AND UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE LAKESHORES. ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD HOLD OFF...WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON FRIDAY...WITH A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO LIFT TOWARD HUDSON BAY WHILE AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR
REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON AND AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S. THERE WILL BE A GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. BUT THIS FLOW DOWNSLOPES EAST OF
ROCHESTER...WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 90.

EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY
INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE
LAKES...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. THE
12Z NAM APPEARS TOO MOIST WITH ITS SURFACE DEW POINTS...WITH MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE FORECASTING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH ML CAPES
BUILDING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. EVEN SO THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
STORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND OF THE LAKES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
FRONT...AN UPPER TROUGH JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT MAY BE BROKEN...TRAILING SHOWERS AND
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING STILL SUPPORTS LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR REGION...USHERING IN COOLER AIR
FOR THE WEEKEND. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-WESTERN STATES
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND INTO OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. SOME
GUIDANCE (NOTABLY THE GGEM) STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER SATURDAY...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE DECISIVE
PASSAGE. GIVEN THE TIMEFRAME...CAN STILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER THIS...HIGH PRESSURE GAINS CONTROL
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES ALOFT APPEAR COOL ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WHICH
SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY LIMIT SUNSHINE. THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES ARE MAKING THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER TODAY. THIS
CLEARING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED ACROSS MANY AREAS...INCLUDING ALL OF
THE TAF TERMINAL AS LINGERING MOISTURE FROM HEAVIER RAINS EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON AND WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY AFTER 03-06Z...CREATING A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KJHW. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
WESTERLY FLOW TO KEEP KBUF/KIAG NO LOWER THAN MVFR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE
EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING ON THE LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD








000
FXUS61 KBUF 030355
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1155 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION BRINGS
FAIR WEATHER WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH MOVES TO
THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A RETURN
OF HOT WEATHER. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS IN THE PROCESS OF FALLING
APART ACROSS NEW YORK STATE EVEN AS IT TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST. DRIER
AIR AND CLEARING SKIES IN ITS WAKE CAN BE DETECTED ON SATELLITE
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND THIS
CLEARING IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT THIS PERIOD OF CLEARING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS
ANY CLEARING SHOULD AID IN RADIATIVE COOLING THAT...IN COMBINATION
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...SHOULD GENERATE LOW STRATUS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THAT WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY-MID MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S COURTESY
OF THE HIGH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ACROSS NEW YORK WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH MORNING CLOUDS SLOWLY BREAKING UP AND LIFTING FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL
BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. FOR OUR REGION...THIS IS MOST APPARENT IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS INCREASES 850MB TEMPERATURES TO +18C BY 00Z
FRIDAY. THERE MAY SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE DAY TO BE SUNNY WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALSO
DOWNSLOPE A BIT NORTH OF I-90. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP VERY MUCH OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
AND UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE LAKESHORES. ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD HOLD OFF...WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON FRIDAY...WITH A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO LIFT TOWARD HUDSON BAY WHILE AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR
REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON AND AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S. THERE WILL BE A GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. BUT THIS FLOW DOWNSLOPES EAST OF
ROCHESTER...WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 90.

EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY
INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE
LAKES...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. THE
12Z NAM APPEARS TOO MOIST WITH ITS SURFACE DEW POINTS...WITH MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE FORECASTING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH ML CAPES
BUILDING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. EVEN SO THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
STORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND OF THE LAKES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
FRONT...AN UPPER TROUGH JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT MAY BE BROKEN...TRAILING SHOWERS AND
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING STILL SUPPORTS LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR REGION...USHERING IN COOLER AIR
FOR THE WEEKEND. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-WESTERN STATES
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND INTO OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. SOME
GUIDANCE (NOTABLY THE GGEM) STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER SATURDAY...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE DECISIVE
PASSAGE. GIVEN THE TIMEFRAME...CAN STILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER THIS...HIGH PRESSURE GAINS CONTROL
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES ALOFT APPEAR COOL ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WHICH
SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY LIMIT SUNSHINE. THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES ARE MAKING THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER TODAY. THIS
CLEARING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED ACROSS MANY AREAS...INCLUDING ALL OF
THE TAF TERMINAL AS LINGERING MOISTURE FROM HEAVIER RAINS EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON AND WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY AFTER 03-06Z...CREATING A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KJHW. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
WESTERLY FLOW TO KEEP KBUF/KIAG NO LOWER THAN MVFR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE
EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING ON THE LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 030307 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1105 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THEN BUILDS EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT OVER CROSSING NYC METRO WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN
LI/SE CT BTWN 2 TO 4 AM...WHILE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RRQ
OF THE UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVE PASS MAINLY NW OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME.

CONVECTION HAS SPLIT TO THE NORTH (BETTER LIFT/SHEAR) AND TO THE
SOUTH (BETTER INSTABILITY) OF THE TRI-STATE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS LI/CT STILL A CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS LI AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. LOW CHANCE
OF A TSTM.

NOTICEABLY DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH
LAGGING CAA AND MIXED LOW-LEVELS IN NW FLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S IN THE SUBURBS...TO LOWER 70S NYC METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WARM...BUT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE FEATURED ON WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. NW WINDS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS FALLING OFF
INTO THE 50S.

LOWS WED NIGHT WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC
BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO RESIDUAL ONSHORE SWELLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL TRANSITION TO SOME
WEAK RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO SLOW THE
FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S.
SOME LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY .

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES
THROUGH...LEADING TO DIFFERENCES IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME
THOUGH...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY...ENDING SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE
70S...WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE WELL IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PASSING NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. VFR
EXPECTED WITH A S-SW FLOW AROUND 10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-25
KT RIGHT AHEAD AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WIND BECOMES MORE
W-NW LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH NEARLY THE SAME
SUSTAINED SPEEDS. W-NW FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH SOME BACKING OF FLOW TO W-SW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

AMENDMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WINDS. SEA
BREEZE MAY BE POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE IN THE DAY.
FORECAST HAS A GENERAL SW FLOW AT KJFK WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW AT
OTHER SOUTHERN COASTAL TERMINALS. A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.WED NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...SUB-VFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS JUST AHEAD OF AND NW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT INTO WED WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RUN ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH ON
THE OCEAN...KEEPING SEAS AT 2 TO 4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW











000
FXUS61 KOKX 030307 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1105 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THEN BUILDS EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT OVER CROSSING NYC METRO WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN
LI/SE CT BTWN 2 TO 4 AM...WHILE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RRQ
OF THE UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVE PASS MAINLY NW OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME.

CONVECTION HAS SPLIT TO THE NORTH (BETTER LIFT/SHEAR) AND TO THE
SOUTH (BETTER INSTABILITY) OF THE TRI-STATE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS LI/CT STILL A CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS LI AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. LOW CHANCE
OF A TSTM.

NOTICEABLY DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH
LAGGING CAA AND MIXED LOW-LEVELS IN NW FLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S IN THE SUBURBS...TO LOWER 70S NYC METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WARM...BUT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE FEATURED ON WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. NW WINDS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS FALLING OFF
INTO THE 50S.

LOWS WED NIGHT WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC
BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO RESIDUAL ONSHORE SWELLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL TRANSITION TO SOME
WEAK RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO SLOW THE
FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S.
SOME LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY .

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES
THROUGH...LEADING TO DIFFERENCES IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME
THOUGH...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY...ENDING SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE
70S...WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE WELL IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PASSING NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. VFR
EXPECTED WITH A S-SW FLOW AROUND 10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-25
KT RIGHT AHEAD AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WIND BECOMES MORE
W-NW LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH NEARLY THE SAME
SUSTAINED SPEEDS. W-NW FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH SOME BACKING OF FLOW TO W-SW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

AMENDMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WINDS. SEA
BREEZE MAY BE POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE IN THE DAY.
FORECAST HAS A GENERAL SW FLOW AT KJFK WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW AT
OTHER SOUTHERN COASTAL TERMINALS. A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.WED NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...SUB-VFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS JUST AHEAD OF AND NW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT INTO WED WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RUN ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH ON
THE OCEAN...KEEPING SEAS AT 2 TO 4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW












000
FXUS61 KOKX 030252
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1052 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THEN BUILDS EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT OVER CROSSING NYC METRO WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN
LI/SE CT BTWN 2 TO 4 AM...WHILE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RRQ
OF THE UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVE PASS MAINLY NW OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME.

CONVECTION HAS SPLIT TO THE NORTH (BETTER LIFT/SHEAR) AND TO THE
SOUTH (BETTER INSTABILITY) OF THE TRI-STATE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS LI/CT STILL A CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS LI AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. LOW CHANCE
OF A TSTM.

NOTICEABLY DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH
LAGGING CAA AND MIXED LOW-LEVELS IN NW FLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S IN THE SUBURBS...TO LOWER 70S NYC METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WARM...BUT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE FEATURED ON WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. NW WINDS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS FALLING OFF
INTO THE 50S.

LOWS WED NIGHT WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC
BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO RESIDUAL ONSHORE SWELLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL TRANSITION TO SOME
WEAK RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO SLOW THE
FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S.
SOME LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY .

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES
THROUGH...LEADING TO DIFFERENCES IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME
THOUGH...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY...ENDING SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE
70S...WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE WELL IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PASSING NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. VFR
EXPECTED WITH A S-SW FLOW AROUND 10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KT
RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE WIND BECOMES MORE W-NW LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH THE SAME SUSTAINED SPEEDS. W-NW FLOW
PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME BACKING OF FLOW TO
W-SW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

AMENDMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WINDS. SEA
BREEZE MAY BE POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE IN THE DAY.
FORECAST HAS A GENERAL SW FLOW AT KJFK WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW AT
OTHER SOUTHERN COASTAL TERMINALS. A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.WED NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...SUB-VFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS JUST AHEAD OF AND NW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT INTO WED WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RUN ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH ON
THE OCEAN...KEEPING SEAS AT 2 TO 4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW










000
FXUS61 KOKX 030252
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1052 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THEN BUILDS EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT OVER CROSSING NYC METRO WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN
LI/SE CT BTWN 2 TO 4 AM...WHILE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RRQ
OF THE UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVE PASS MAINLY NW OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME.

CONVECTION HAS SPLIT TO THE NORTH (BETTER LIFT/SHEAR) AND TO THE
SOUTH (BETTER INSTABILITY) OF THE TRI-STATE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS LI/CT STILL A CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS LI AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. LOW CHANCE
OF A TSTM.

NOTICEABLY DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH
LAGGING CAA AND MIXED LOW-LEVELS IN NW FLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S IN THE SUBURBS...TO LOWER 70S NYC METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WARM...BUT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE FEATURED ON WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. NW WINDS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS FALLING OFF
INTO THE 50S.

LOWS WED NIGHT WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC
BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO RESIDUAL ONSHORE SWELLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL TRANSITION TO SOME
WEAK RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO SLOW THE
FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S.
SOME LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY .

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES
THROUGH...LEADING TO DIFFERENCES IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME
THOUGH...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY...ENDING SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE
70S...WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE WELL IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PASSING NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. VFR
EXPECTED WITH A S-SW FLOW AROUND 10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KT
RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE WIND BECOMES MORE W-NW LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH THE SAME SUSTAINED SPEEDS. W-NW FLOW
PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME BACKING OF FLOW TO
W-SW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

AMENDMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WINDS. SEA
BREEZE MAY BE POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE IN THE DAY.
FORECAST HAS A GENERAL SW FLOW AT KJFK WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW AT
OTHER SOUTHERN COASTAL TERMINALS. A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.WED NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...SUB-VFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS JUST AHEAD OF AND NW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT INTO WED WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RUN ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH ON
THE OCEAN...KEEPING SEAS AT 2 TO 4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW








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000
FXUS61 KBTV 030250
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1050 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SUNNY,
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY. WARM SUMMER WEATHER
RETURNS FRIDAY BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN
EARLY SATURDAY GIVING A TASTE OF FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1044 PM EDT TUESDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT LATE THIS EVENING...AND WILL EXIT THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 05Z-06Z. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH POST FRONTAL RAINS
ACROSS REST OF VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK ASSOCIATED WITH
TRAILING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING HAS BEEN HEAVY
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...RAINFALL RATES IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION HAVE
DECREASED ENOUGH SO THAT THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED.
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST WITH LATEST UPDATE TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
WELL, THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY PRIMED. VERY WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS IS RESULTING IN MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY (CAPE
PUSHING 2000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX OF -2 TO -4C). SO FAR THE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SPARSE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER RADAR
SHOWS THE BUILDING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT ACROSS
ONTARIO. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE CROSSING INTO THE UNITED STATES IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STILL LIKE HOW THE HRRR AND OUR LOCAL
6KM WRF ARE HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION. STILL LOOKS
LIKE AN ETA INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DURING THE EVENING (LET`S GO
WITH 6-8PM) AND THEN INTO EASTERN VERMONT BY 10PM. UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WHICH IS THE PRIMARY TRIGGER FOR THE CONVECTION IS NOW
OVER MICHIGAN AND STARTING TO LIFT NORTHEAST. OUT AHEAD OF THAT
SHORT WAVE THE WIND FIELDS AND RELATED SHEAR INCREASE, BUT AT THE
SAME TIME WE ARE GETTING CLOSER TO SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING. SO
IT`S A BATTLE BETWEEN TIMING OF THE BEST DYNAMICS VS BEST
INSTABILITY.

AT THIS POINT STILL SEE NOTHING TO CHANGE THE IDEA THAT WE`LL HAVE
AT LEAST A FEW STRONG T-STORMS AROUND, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND
MAINLY WEST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. HAVE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THE ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN BY MID EVENING IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
TO JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN EASTERN VERMONT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING WE GET, WE COULD HAVE A BIT OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

THE COOLER AIR LAGS THE WEATHER A BIT, SO IT WILL STILL BE A MUGGY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...IT WILL BE A QUIET 48 HOURS. SHORT TERM
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO RIDGING OVER THE REGION.

DAILY SPECIFICS...

WEDNESDAY: FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALL TO 11-12C WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. WITH SOME WEAK COLD-AIR ADVECTION AND A GOOD
DEAL OF SUN, WE`LL HAVE SOME EXCELLENT MIXING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP SOME OF THE 20KT OR SO OF WIND
THAT WILL BE A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP, SO IT SHOULD GET A LITTLE
BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CLEAR AND CALM, SO PATCHY
FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GROUND WILL STILL
BE A BIT DAMP FROM THE RAIN THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 50S, THOUGH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN COLD SPOTS LIKE SARANAC LAKE.

THURSDAY: SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARLY
OVERHEAD, BUT STARTING TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 12-13C, WHICH SUPPORTS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
HIGHS. PLENTY OF SUN AS WELL.

THURSDAY NIGHT: DISCARDED THE NAM AS IT SEEMS TOO AGRESSIVE WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PRODUCES THICKENING
CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THINK IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AND DRY PER OTHER MODELS. HOWEVER WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING, IT WON`T BE AS COLD, LOTS OF 50S AND EVEN LOW 60S FOR
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PREDOMINATELY
QUIET...LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE STARTING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND...BUT WET TO BEGIN. FOR THE START OF THE
PERIOD...RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT
SURFACE FRONT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF +20-23C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH WIDESPREAD 80`S EXPECTED.
IT`LL BE MUGGY TOO WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S WHICH
WILL CREATE AMPLE SURFACE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
WHICH WILL SHIFT INTO THE BTV CWA LATE IN THE DAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS PASSES TO OUR
NORTH...WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW
SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION WHICH IS
MAINTAINED BY THE LATEST ECMWF. GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER PUSHING
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING SO HAVE CONTINUED
ON WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF.

BY LATE SATURDAY TREND WILL BE TOWARDS CLEARER AND DRIER WEATHER AS
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS ZONAL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS HIGH THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND OFF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE
TUESDAY OFFERING A NICE STRETCH OF LATE SUMMER WEATHER. TEMPS RETURN
TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
EXPECTED HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CIGS WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR BUT VSBY WILL BE
REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. AFTER
06Z...PRECIP IS EAST OF THE REGION LEAVING GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES.
CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE VFR AT KMSS/KPBG/KBTV...BUT MVFR
AT KRUT/KSLK/KMPV WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT KRUT UNDER BLOCKED FLOW.
SOME PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK/KMPV.
AFTER 12Z...ALL CIGS LIFT TO VFR WITH SCT-BKN DIURNAL
STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THU - 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR
FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z SAT - 00Z SUN...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z SUN - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...RJS/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...RJS/LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 030250
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1050 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SUNNY,
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY. WARM SUMMER WEATHER
RETURNS FRIDAY BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN
EARLY SATURDAY GIVING A TASTE OF FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1044 PM EDT TUESDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT LATE THIS EVENING...AND WILL EXIT THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 05Z-06Z. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH POST FRONTAL RAINS
ACROSS REST OF VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK ASSOCIATED WITH
TRAILING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING HAS BEEN HEAVY
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...RAINFALL RATES IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION HAVE
DECREASED ENOUGH SO THAT THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED.
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST WITH LATEST UPDATE TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
WELL, THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY PRIMED. VERY WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS IS RESULTING IN MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY (CAPE
PUSHING 2000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX OF -2 TO -4C). SO FAR THE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SPARSE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER RADAR
SHOWS THE BUILDING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT ACROSS
ONTARIO. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE CROSSING INTO THE UNITED STATES IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STILL LIKE HOW THE HRRR AND OUR LOCAL
6KM WRF ARE HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION. STILL LOOKS
LIKE AN ETA INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DURING THE EVENING (LET`S GO
WITH 6-8PM) AND THEN INTO EASTERN VERMONT BY 10PM. UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WHICH IS THE PRIMARY TRIGGER FOR THE CONVECTION IS NOW
OVER MICHIGAN AND STARTING TO LIFT NORTHEAST. OUT AHEAD OF THAT
SHORT WAVE THE WIND FIELDS AND RELATED SHEAR INCREASE, BUT AT THE
SAME TIME WE ARE GETTING CLOSER TO SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING. SO
IT`S A BATTLE BETWEEN TIMING OF THE BEST DYNAMICS VS BEST
INSTABILITY.

AT THIS POINT STILL SEE NOTHING TO CHANGE THE IDEA THAT WE`LL HAVE
AT LEAST A FEW STRONG T-STORMS AROUND, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND
MAINLY WEST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. HAVE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THE ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN BY MID EVENING IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
TO JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN EASTERN VERMONT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING WE GET, WE COULD HAVE A BIT OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

THE COOLER AIR LAGS THE WEATHER A BIT, SO IT WILL STILL BE A MUGGY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...IT WILL BE A QUIET 48 HOURS. SHORT TERM
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO RIDGING OVER THE REGION.

DAILY SPECIFICS...

WEDNESDAY: FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALL TO 11-12C WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. WITH SOME WEAK COLD-AIR ADVECTION AND A GOOD
DEAL OF SUN, WE`LL HAVE SOME EXCELLENT MIXING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP SOME OF THE 20KT OR SO OF WIND
THAT WILL BE A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP, SO IT SHOULD GET A LITTLE
BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CLEAR AND CALM, SO PATCHY
FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GROUND WILL STILL
BE A BIT DAMP FROM THE RAIN THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 50S, THOUGH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN COLD SPOTS LIKE SARANAC LAKE.

THURSDAY: SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARLY
OVERHEAD, BUT STARTING TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 12-13C, WHICH SUPPORTS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
HIGHS. PLENTY OF SUN AS WELL.

THURSDAY NIGHT: DISCARDED THE NAM AS IT SEEMS TOO AGRESSIVE WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PRODUCES THICKENING
CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THINK IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AND DRY PER OTHER MODELS. HOWEVER WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING, IT WON`T BE AS COLD, LOTS OF 50S AND EVEN LOW 60S FOR
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PREDOMINATELY
QUIET...LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE STARTING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND...BUT WET TO BEGIN. FOR THE START OF THE
PERIOD...RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT
SURFACE FRONT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF +20-23C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH WIDESPREAD 80`S EXPECTED.
IT`LL BE MUGGY TOO WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S WHICH
WILL CREATE AMPLE SURFACE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
WHICH WILL SHIFT INTO THE BTV CWA LATE IN THE DAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS PASSES TO OUR
NORTH...WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW
SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION WHICH IS
MAINTAINED BY THE LATEST ECMWF. GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER PUSHING
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING SO HAVE CONTINUED
ON WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF.

BY LATE SATURDAY TREND WILL BE TOWARDS CLEARER AND DRIER WEATHER AS
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS ZONAL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS HIGH THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND OFF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE
TUESDAY OFFERING A NICE STRETCH OF LATE SUMMER WEATHER. TEMPS RETURN
TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
EXPECTED HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CIGS WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR BUT VSBY WILL BE
REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. AFTER
06Z...PRECIP IS EAST OF THE REGION LEAVING GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES.
CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE VFR AT KMSS/KPBG/KBTV...BUT MVFR
AT KRUT/KSLK/KMPV WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT KRUT UNDER BLOCKED FLOW.
SOME PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK/KMPV.
AFTER 12Z...ALL CIGS LIFT TO VFR WITH SCT-BKN DIURNAL
STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THU - 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR
FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z SAT - 00Z SUN...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z SUN - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...RJS/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...RJS/LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 030250
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1050 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SUNNY,
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY. WARM SUMMER WEATHER
RETURNS FRIDAY BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN
EARLY SATURDAY GIVING A TASTE OF FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1044 PM EDT TUESDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT LATE THIS EVENING...AND WILL EXIT THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 05Z-06Z. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH POST FRONTAL RAINS
ACROSS REST OF VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK ASSOCIATED WITH
TRAILING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING HAS BEEN HEAVY
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...RAINFALL RATES IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION HAVE
DECREASED ENOUGH SO THAT THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED.
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST WITH LATEST UPDATE TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
WELL, THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY PRIMED. VERY WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS IS RESULTING IN MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY (CAPE
PUSHING 2000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX OF -2 TO -4C). SO FAR THE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SPARSE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER RADAR
SHOWS THE BUILDING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT ACROSS
ONTARIO. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE CROSSING INTO THE UNITED STATES IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STILL LIKE HOW THE HRRR AND OUR LOCAL
6KM WRF ARE HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION. STILL LOOKS
LIKE AN ETA INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DURING THE EVENING (LET`S GO
WITH 6-8PM) AND THEN INTO EASTERN VERMONT BY 10PM. UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WHICH IS THE PRIMARY TRIGGER FOR THE CONVECTION IS NOW
OVER MICHIGAN AND STARTING TO LIFT NORTHEAST. OUT AHEAD OF THAT
SHORT WAVE THE WIND FIELDS AND RELATED SHEAR INCREASE, BUT AT THE
SAME TIME WE ARE GETTING CLOSER TO SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING. SO
IT`S A BATTLE BETWEEN TIMING OF THE BEST DYNAMICS VS BEST
INSTABILITY.

AT THIS POINT STILL SEE NOTHING TO CHANGE THE IDEA THAT WE`LL HAVE
AT LEAST A FEW STRONG T-STORMS AROUND, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND
MAINLY WEST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. HAVE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THE ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN BY MID EVENING IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
TO JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN EASTERN VERMONT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING WE GET, WE COULD HAVE A BIT OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

THE COOLER AIR LAGS THE WEATHER A BIT, SO IT WILL STILL BE A MUGGY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...IT WILL BE A QUIET 48 HOURS. SHORT TERM
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO RIDGING OVER THE REGION.

DAILY SPECIFICS...

WEDNESDAY: FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALL TO 11-12C WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. WITH SOME WEAK COLD-AIR ADVECTION AND A GOOD
DEAL OF SUN, WE`LL HAVE SOME EXCELLENT MIXING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP SOME OF THE 20KT OR SO OF WIND
THAT WILL BE A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP, SO IT SHOULD GET A LITTLE
BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CLEAR AND CALM, SO PATCHY
FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GROUND WILL STILL
BE A BIT DAMP FROM THE RAIN THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 50S, THOUGH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN COLD SPOTS LIKE SARANAC LAKE.

THURSDAY: SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARLY
OVERHEAD, BUT STARTING TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 12-13C, WHICH SUPPORTS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
HIGHS. PLENTY OF SUN AS WELL.

THURSDAY NIGHT: DISCARDED THE NAM AS IT SEEMS TOO AGRESSIVE WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PRODUCES THICKENING
CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THINK IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AND DRY PER OTHER MODELS. HOWEVER WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING, IT WON`T BE AS COLD, LOTS OF 50S AND EVEN LOW 60S FOR
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PREDOMINATELY
QUIET...LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE STARTING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND...BUT WET TO BEGIN. FOR THE START OF THE
PERIOD...RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT
SURFACE FRONT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF +20-23C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH WIDESPREAD 80`S EXPECTED.
IT`LL BE MUGGY TOO WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S WHICH
WILL CREATE AMPLE SURFACE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
WHICH WILL SHIFT INTO THE BTV CWA LATE IN THE DAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS PASSES TO OUR
NORTH...WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW
SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION WHICH IS
MAINTAINED BY THE LATEST ECMWF. GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER PUSHING
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING SO HAVE CONTINUED
ON WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF.

BY LATE SATURDAY TREND WILL BE TOWARDS CLEARER AND DRIER WEATHER AS
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS ZONAL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS HIGH THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND OFF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE
TUESDAY OFFERING A NICE STRETCH OF LATE SUMMER WEATHER. TEMPS RETURN
TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
EXPECTED HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CIGS WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR BUT VSBY WILL BE
REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. AFTER
06Z...PRECIP IS EAST OF THE REGION LEAVING GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES.
CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE VFR AT KMSS/KPBG/KBTV...BUT MVFR
AT KRUT/KSLK/KMPV WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT KRUT UNDER BLOCKED FLOW.
SOME PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK/KMPV.
AFTER 12Z...ALL CIGS LIFT TO VFR WITH SCT-BKN DIURNAL
STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THU - 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR
FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z SAT - 00Z SUN...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z SUN - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...RJS/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...RJS/LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 030250
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1050 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SUNNY,
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY. WARM SUMMER WEATHER
RETURNS FRIDAY BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN
EARLY SATURDAY GIVING A TASTE OF FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1044 PM EDT TUESDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT LATE THIS EVENING...AND WILL EXIT THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 05Z-06Z. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH POST FRONTAL RAINS
ACROSS REST OF VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK ASSOCIATED WITH
TRAILING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING HAS BEEN HEAVY
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...RAINFALL RATES IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION HAVE
DECREASED ENOUGH SO THAT THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED.
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST WITH LATEST UPDATE TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
WELL, THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY PRIMED. VERY WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS IS RESULTING IN MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY (CAPE
PUSHING 2000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX OF -2 TO -4C). SO FAR THE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SPARSE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER RADAR
SHOWS THE BUILDING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT ACROSS
ONTARIO. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE CROSSING INTO THE UNITED STATES IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STILL LIKE HOW THE HRRR AND OUR LOCAL
6KM WRF ARE HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION. STILL LOOKS
LIKE AN ETA INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DURING THE EVENING (LET`S GO
WITH 6-8PM) AND THEN INTO EASTERN VERMONT BY 10PM. UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WHICH IS THE PRIMARY TRIGGER FOR THE CONVECTION IS NOW
OVER MICHIGAN AND STARTING TO LIFT NORTHEAST. OUT AHEAD OF THAT
SHORT WAVE THE WIND FIELDS AND RELATED SHEAR INCREASE, BUT AT THE
SAME TIME WE ARE GETTING CLOSER TO SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING. SO
IT`S A BATTLE BETWEEN TIMING OF THE BEST DYNAMICS VS BEST
INSTABILITY.

AT THIS POINT STILL SEE NOTHING TO CHANGE THE IDEA THAT WE`LL HAVE
AT LEAST A FEW STRONG T-STORMS AROUND, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND
MAINLY WEST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. HAVE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THE ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN BY MID EVENING IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
TO JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN EASTERN VERMONT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING WE GET, WE COULD HAVE A BIT OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

THE COOLER AIR LAGS THE WEATHER A BIT, SO IT WILL STILL BE A MUGGY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...IT WILL BE A QUIET 48 HOURS. SHORT TERM
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO RIDGING OVER THE REGION.

DAILY SPECIFICS...

WEDNESDAY: FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALL TO 11-12C WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. WITH SOME WEAK COLD-AIR ADVECTION AND A GOOD
DEAL OF SUN, WE`LL HAVE SOME EXCELLENT MIXING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP SOME OF THE 20KT OR SO OF WIND
THAT WILL BE A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP, SO IT SHOULD GET A LITTLE
BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CLEAR AND CALM, SO PATCHY
FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GROUND WILL STILL
BE A BIT DAMP FROM THE RAIN THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 50S, THOUGH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN COLD SPOTS LIKE SARANAC LAKE.

THURSDAY: SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARLY
OVERHEAD, BUT STARTING TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 12-13C, WHICH SUPPORTS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
HIGHS. PLENTY OF SUN AS WELL.

THURSDAY NIGHT: DISCARDED THE NAM AS IT SEEMS TOO AGRESSIVE WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PRODUCES THICKENING
CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THINK IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AND DRY PER OTHER MODELS. HOWEVER WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING, IT WON`T BE AS COLD, LOTS OF 50S AND EVEN LOW 60S FOR
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PREDOMINATELY
QUIET...LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE STARTING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND...BUT WET TO BEGIN. FOR THE START OF THE
PERIOD...RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT
SURFACE FRONT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF +20-23C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH WIDESPREAD 80`S EXPECTED.
IT`LL BE MUGGY TOO WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S WHICH
WILL CREATE AMPLE SURFACE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
WHICH WILL SHIFT INTO THE BTV CWA LATE IN THE DAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS PASSES TO OUR
NORTH...WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW
SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION WHICH IS
MAINTAINED BY THE LATEST ECMWF. GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER PUSHING
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING SO HAVE CONTINUED
ON WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF.

BY LATE SATURDAY TREND WILL BE TOWARDS CLEARER AND DRIER WEATHER AS
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS ZONAL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS HIGH THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND OFF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE
TUESDAY OFFERING A NICE STRETCH OF LATE SUMMER WEATHER. TEMPS RETURN
TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
EXPECTED HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CIGS WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR BUT VSBY WILL BE
REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. AFTER
06Z...PRECIP IS EAST OF THE REGION LEAVING GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES.
CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE VFR AT KMSS/KPBG/KBTV...BUT MVFR
AT KRUT/KSLK/KMPV WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT KRUT UNDER BLOCKED FLOW.
SOME PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK/KMPV.
AFTER 12Z...ALL CIGS LIFT TO VFR WITH SCT-BKN DIURNAL
STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THU - 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR
FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z SAT - 00Z SUN...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z SUN - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...RJS/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...RJS/LAHIFF






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 030232
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1032 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING...LINE OF CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND WAS
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION. PER THE HRRR/RAP13...THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL CLEAR OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES CLOSE TO
06Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...PER THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY...SEEMS
CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND FOR A LITTLE LONGER. THE BUFR PROFILES
SUGGEST LOWER STRATUS WILL LINGER SO WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS
A LITTLE LONGER WITH THIS UPDATE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LITTLE
CHANGES NEEDED AS DEWPOINTS WERE RUNNING WELL INTO THE 60S...AND
ONLY A SMALL DROP IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRYING AND CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH A STEADY
WEST TO NORTH BREEZE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION. SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES FRIDAY AND BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A LITTLE COOLER IN HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WELL
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT FOLLOWED BY DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
END THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT
WOULD FEATURE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY.

WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THANKS IN PART
TO A RETURN FLOW SETUP FROM DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE
EAST...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE
REGION AS DEWPOINTS SURGE BACK INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MUGGY...GENERALLY IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT
FOR UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ACCOMPANYING THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY SHOULD BE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...GENERALLY AROUND 6.0 C/KM WHICH SHOULD ALSO HAMPER THE
POTENCY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...DESPITE BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE
0-6KM LAYER OF 30-40 KNOTS.

REGARDLESS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY LOCALIZED
STRONGER STORMS LOOKS TO BE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER COULD OCCUR TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY AND ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS
COMBINATION OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED-THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A WEST-
NORTHWEST DIRECTION AT SPEEDS 5-10KTS. THIS MAY ALSO INHIBIT FROM
TOO MUCH FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH A WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND OF 5-10KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY WILL BE 35 TO 45 PERCENT AND ON
THURSDAY 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THIS EVENING...SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTH TOMORROW
AT AROUND 15 MPH...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON TO 20 MPH.
WILL WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 15 MPH THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION LATE IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.  AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS IS
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS NORTH
OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND LESSER AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER
SOUTH.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT TIME.
THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS/BGM
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL/BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 030232
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1032 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING...LINE OF CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND WAS
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION. PER THE HRRR/RAP13...THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL CLEAR OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES CLOSE TO
06Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...PER THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY...SEEMS
CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND FOR A LITTLE LONGER. THE BUFR PROFILES
SUGGEST LOWER STRATUS WILL LINGER SO WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS
A LITTLE LONGER WITH THIS UPDATE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LITTLE
CHANGES NEEDED AS DEWPOINTS WERE RUNNING WELL INTO THE 60S...AND
ONLY A SMALL DROP IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRYING AND CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH A STEADY
WEST TO NORTH BREEZE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION. SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES FRIDAY AND BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A LITTLE COOLER IN HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WELL
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT FOLLOWED BY DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
END THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT
WOULD FEATURE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY.

WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THANKS IN PART
TO A RETURN FLOW SETUP FROM DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE
EAST...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE
REGION AS DEWPOINTS SURGE BACK INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MUGGY...GENERALLY IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT
FOR UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ACCOMPANYING THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY SHOULD BE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...GENERALLY AROUND 6.0 C/KM WHICH SHOULD ALSO HAMPER THE
POTENCY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...DESPITE BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE
0-6KM LAYER OF 30-40 KNOTS.

REGARDLESS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY LOCALIZED
STRONGER STORMS LOOKS TO BE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER COULD OCCUR TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY AND ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS
COMBINATION OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED-THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A WEST-
NORTHWEST DIRECTION AT SPEEDS 5-10KTS. THIS MAY ALSO INHIBIT FROM
TOO MUCH FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH A WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND OF 5-10KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY WILL BE 35 TO 45 PERCENT AND ON
THURSDAY 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THIS EVENING...SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTH TOMORROW
AT AROUND 15 MPH...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON TO 20 MPH.
WILL WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 15 MPH THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION LATE IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.  AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS IS
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS NORTH
OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND LESSER AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER
SOUTH.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT TIME.
THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS/BGM
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL/BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBGM 030152
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
952 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WARM WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
950 PM UPDATE...
LAST OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW EXPIRING. STORMS HAVE
WEAKENED INTO A BAND OF SHOWERS NOW OVER THE CATSKILLS TO EXTREME
NORTHEAST PA...WHICH WILL EXIT IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 745 PM...SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN PROGRESS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR MOST OF OUR CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST ZONES. SEVERAL WARNINGS IN EFFECT...AND WITH THE AMOUNT
OF SHEAR /0-6KM 40-50 KTS/ PRESENT...DAMAGING WINDS HAS BEEN THE
MAIN PROBLEM. WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES AND POWERLINES
DOWN. DESPITE THE WIND...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER POOLING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...NOT A LOT OF LIGHTNING IN THIS
ACTIVITY BECAUSE OF VERY WARM LOWER ATMOSPHERE...AND CAPES LIMITED
GENERALLY TO 500-1000 J/KG.

ACTIVITY WILL FINISH CARRYING THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
LATER TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY MOVING EAST ACROSS PA WHILE
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW AT LOW LEVELS. WITH THE
LIGHT LL WINDS AND THE WET GROUND FOG SHOULD BE COMMON IN AT LEAST
THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY EVENING
AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. ALOFT THE FLOW WILL BE ZONAL. COOLER
AIR ON THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY MODERATE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE WHILE LOW LEVELS INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THU AROUND 80 RISE INTO THE
M80S THU AND FRI. A STRONG COLD FRONT GETS INTO SE ONTARIO LATE
FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRI WILL BE WARM AND HUMID AS A WSW FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RDG
BRINGS WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FNT APRCHS FOR SAT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND TRWS.
HIPRES BLDS BACK IN WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR THRU THE END OF THE
PD. SOME HINT FROM THE MODELS THAT THE FNT COULD STALL OUT OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC BUT IT LOOKS FOR NOW LIKE THE FNT WILL STAY WELL
SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABV NRML FOR THE
PD...XCPT FOR MON WHEN THEY WILL BE NEAR NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
LINE OF GUSTY STORMS AT 00Z KBGM-KRME AND APPROACHING
KAVP...SHOWERS BEHIND THE LINE KITH-KSYR AND SOON TO END FOR
THOSE TERMINALS. THIS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT MOVING THROUGH. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ALL OF THIS RAIN...EXPECTING MVFR TO IFR
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG OR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. KELM IN PARTICULAR
SHOULD GO DOWN HARD TO NEAR AIRPORT MINS EARLY MORNING. DRY AIR
MASS THOUGH COMING IN...AND ONCE FOG-LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT IN THE
MORNING...LOOKING AT VFR DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WNW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 030152
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
952 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WARM WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
950 PM UPDATE...
LAST OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW EXPIRING. STORMS HAVE
WEAKENED INTO A BAND OF SHOWERS NOW OVER THE CATSKILLS TO EXTREME
NORTHEAST PA...WHICH WILL EXIT IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 745 PM...SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN PROGRESS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR MOST OF OUR CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST ZONES. SEVERAL WARNINGS IN EFFECT...AND WITH THE AMOUNT
OF SHEAR /0-6KM 40-50 KTS/ PRESENT...DAMAGING WINDS HAS BEEN THE
MAIN PROBLEM. WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES AND POWERLINES
DOWN. DESPITE THE WIND...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER POOLING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...NOT A LOT OF LIGHTNING IN THIS
ACTIVITY BECAUSE OF VERY WARM LOWER ATMOSPHERE...AND CAPES LIMITED
GENERALLY TO 500-1000 J/KG.

ACTIVITY WILL FINISH CARRYING THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
LATER TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY MOVING EAST ACROSS PA WHILE
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW AT LOW LEVELS. WITH THE
LIGHT LL WINDS AND THE WET GROUND FOG SHOULD BE COMMON IN AT LEAST
THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY EVENING
AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. ALOFT THE FLOW WILL BE ZONAL. COOLER
AIR ON THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY MODERATE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE WHILE LOW LEVELS INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THU AROUND 80 RISE INTO THE
M80S THU AND FRI. A STRONG COLD FRONT GETS INTO SE ONTARIO LATE
FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRI WILL BE WARM AND HUMID AS A WSW FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RDG
BRINGS WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FNT APRCHS FOR SAT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND TRWS.
HIPRES BLDS BACK IN WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR THRU THE END OF THE
PD. SOME HINT FROM THE MODELS THAT THE FNT COULD STALL OUT OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC BUT IT LOOKS FOR NOW LIKE THE FNT WILL STAY WELL
SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABV NRML FOR THE
PD...XCPT FOR MON WHEN THEY WILL BE NEAR NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
LINE OF GUSTY STORMS AT 00Z KBGM-KRME AND APPROACHING
KAVP...SHOWERS BEHIND THE LINE KITH-KSYR AND SOON TO END FOR
THOSE TERMINALS. THIS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT MOVING THROUGH. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ALL OF THIS RAIN...EXPECTING MVFR TO IFR
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG OR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. KELM IN PARTICULAR
SHOULD GO DOWN HARD TO NEAR AIRPORT MINS EARLY MORNING. DRY AIR
MASS THOUGH COMING IN...AND ONCE FOG-LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT IN THE
MORNING...LOOKING AT VFR DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WNW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBUF 030048
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
848 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT EXITS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL
BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
USHER IN A RETURN OF HOT WEATHER. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM EASTERN ONTARIO DOWN ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK CAN BE CLEARLY DISCERNED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
EXTENSIVE CLEARING CAN BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND MICHIGAN BACK INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THIS
AREA OF CLEARING SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA...LEADING TO
STARLIT SKIES...AT LEAST FOR A TIME. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT HOWEVER
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAIN FELL TODAY. IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE
POST-FRONTAL COOLING LATER THIS EVENING AND ADVECTION OF DRY AIR
FROM THE WEST IN DETERMINING HOW MUCH LOW CLOUD WE SEE OVERNIGHT.
FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH CONTINUITY IN THE FORECAST AND KEEP THE
CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY ACROSS THE USUAL CLOUD-PRONE AREAS. THE
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP LOWS PROPPED UP IN THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

ON WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ACROSS NEW YORK WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH MORNING CLOUDS SLOWLY BREAKING UP AND LIFTING FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL
BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. FOR OUR REGION...THIS IS MOST APPARENT IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS INCREASES 850MB TEMPERATURES TO +18C BY 00Z
FRIDAY. THERE MAY SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE DAY TO BE SUNNY WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALSO
DOWNSLOPE A BIT NORTH OF I-90. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP VERY MUCH OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
AND UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE LAKESHORES. ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD HOLD OFF...WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON FRIDAY...WITH A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO LIFT TOWARD HUDSON BAY WHILE AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR
REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON AND AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S. THERE WILL BE A GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. BUT THIS FLOW DOWNSLOPES EAST OF
ROCHESTER...WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 90.

EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY
INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE
LAKES...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. THE
12Z NAM APPEARS TOO MOIST WITH ITS SURFACE DEW POINTS...WITH MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE FORECASTING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH ML CAPES
BUILDING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. EVEN SO THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
STORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND OF THE LAKES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
FRONT...AN UPPER TROUGH JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT MAY BE BROKEN...TRAILING SHOWERS AND
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING STILL SUPPORTS LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR REGION...USHERING IN COOLER AIR
FOR THE WEEKEND. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-WESTERN STATES
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND INTO OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. SOME
GUIDANCE (NOTABLY THE GGEM) STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER SATURDAY...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE DECISIVE
PASSAGE. GIVEN THE TIMEFRAME...CAN STILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER THIS...HIGH PRESSURE GAINS CONTROL
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES ALOFT APPEAR COOL ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WHICH
SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY LIMIT SUNSHINE. THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AS A LARGE SWATH OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ANS
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. THE COLD FRONT IS
PRESENTLY ON OUR DOORSTEP AND WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
WHILE DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION SHOULD ULTIMATELY LEAD TO
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MANY AREAS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM
HEAVIER RAINS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY AFTER 03-06Z...CREATING A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KJHW.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE
EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING ON THE LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD








000
FXUS61 KBUF 030048
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
848 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT EXITS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL
BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
USHER IN A RETURN OF HOT WEATHER. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM EASTERN ONTARIO DOWN ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK CAN BE CLEARLY DISCERNED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
EXTENSIVE CLEARING CAN BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND MICHIGAN BACK INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THIS
AREA OF CLEARING SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA...LEADING TO
STARLIT SKIES...AT LEAST FOR A TIME. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT HOWEVER
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAIN FELL TODAY. IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE
POST-FRONTAL COOLING LATER THIS EVENING AND ADVECTION OF DRY AIR
FROM THE WEST IN DETERMINING HOW MUCH LOW CLOUD WE SEE OVERNIGHT.
FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH CONTINUITY IN THE FORECAST AND KEEP THE
CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY ACROSS THE USUAL CLOUD-PRONE AREAS. THE
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP LOWS PROPPED UP IN THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

ON WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ACROSS NEW YORK WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH MORNING CLOUDS SLOWLY BREAKING UP AND LIFTING FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL
BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. FOR OUR REGION...THIS IS MOST APPARENT IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS INCREASES 850MB TEMPERATURES TO +18C BY 00Z
FRIDAY. THERE MAY SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE DAY TO BE SUNNY WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALSO
DOWNSLOPE A BIT NORTH OF I-90. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP VERY MUCH OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
AND UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE LAKESHORES. ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD HOLD OFF...WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON FRIDAY...WITH A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO LIFT TOWARD HUDSON BAY WHILE AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR
REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON AND AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S. THERE WILL BE A GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. BUT THIS FLOW DOWNSLOPES EAST OF
ROCHESTER...WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 90.

EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY
INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE
LAKES...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. THE
12Z NAM APPEARS TOO MOIST WITH ITS SURFACE DEW POINTS...WITH MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE FORECASTING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH ML CAPES
BUILDING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. EVEN SO THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
STORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND OF THE LAKES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
FRONT...AN UPPER TROUGH JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT MAY BE BROKEN...TRAILING SHOWERS AND
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING STILL SUPPORTS LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR REGION...USHERING IN COOLER AIR
FOR THE WEEKEND. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-WESTERN STATES
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND INTO OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. SOME
GUIDANCE (NOTABLY THE GGEM) STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER SATURDAY...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE DECISIVE
PASSAGE. GIVEN THE TIMEFRAME...CAN STILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER THIS...HIGH PRESSURE GAINS CONTROL
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES ALOFT APPEAR COOL ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WHICH
SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY LIMIT SUNSHINE. THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AS A LARGE SWATH OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ANS
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. THE COLD FRONT IS
PRESENTLY ON OUR DOORSTEP AND WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
WHILE DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION SHOULD ULTIMATELY LEAD TO
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MANY AREAS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM
HEAVIER RAINS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY AFTER 03-06Z...CREATING A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KJHW.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE
EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING ON THE LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD








000
FXUS61 KBUF 030048
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
848 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT EXITS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL
BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
USHER IN A RETURN OF HOT WEATHER. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM EASTERN ONTARIO DOWN ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK CAN BE CLEARLY DISCERNED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
EXTENSIVE CLEARING CAN BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND MICHIGAN BACK INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THIS
AREA OF CLEARING SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA...LEADING TO
STARLIT SKIES...AT LEAST FOR A TIME. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT HOWEVER
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAIN FELL TODAY. IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE
POST-FRONTAL COOLING LATER THIS EVENING AND ADVECTION OF DRY AIR
FROM THE WEST IN DETERMINING HOW MUCH LOW CLOUD WE SEE OVERNIGHT.
FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH CONTINUITY IN THE FORECAST AND KEEP THE
CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY ACROSS THE USUAL CLOUD-PRONE AREAS. THE
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP LOWS PROPPED UP IN THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

ON WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ACROSS NEW YORK WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH MORNING CLOUDS SLOWLY BREAKING UP AND LIFTING FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL
BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. FOR OUR REGION...THIS IS MOST APPARENT IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS INCREASES 850MB TEMPERATURES TO +18C BY 00Z
FRIDAY. THERE MAY SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE DAY TO BE SUNNY WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALSO
DOWNSLOPE A BIT NORTH OF I-90. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP VERY MUCH OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
AND UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE LAKESHORES. ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD HOLD OFF...WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON FRIDAY...WITH A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO LIFT TOWARD HUDSON BAY WHILE AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR
REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON AND AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S. THERE WILL BE A GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. BUT THIS FLOW DOWNSLOPES EAST OF
ROCHESTER...WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 90.

EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY
INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE
LAKES...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. THE
12Z NAM APPEARS TOO MOIST WITH ITS SURFACE DEW POINTS...WITH MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE FORECASTING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH ML CAPES
BUILDING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. EVEN SO THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
STORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND OF THE LAKES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
FRONT...AN UPPER TROUGH JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT MAY BE BROKEN...TRAILING SHOWERS AND
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING STILL SUPPORTS LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR REGION...USHERING IN COOLER AIR
FOR THE WEEKEND. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-WESTERN STATES
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND INTO OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. SOME
GUIDANCE (NOTABLY THE GGEM) STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER SATURDAY...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE DECISIVE
PASSAGE. GIVEN THE TIMEFRAME...CAN STILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER THIS...HIGH PRESSURE GAINS CONTROL
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES ALOFT APPEAR COOL ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WHICH
SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY LIMIT SUNSHINE. THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AS A LARGE SWATH OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ANS
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. THE COLD FRONT IS
PRESENTLY ON OUR DOORSTEP AND WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
WHILE DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION SHOULD ULTIMATELY LEAD TO
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MANY AREAS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM
HEAVIER RAINS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY AFTER 03-06Z...CREATING A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KJHW.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE
EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING ON THE LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD








000
FXUS61 KBUF 030048
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
848 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT EXITS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL
BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
USHER IN A RETURN OF HOT WEATHER. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM EASTERN ONTARIO DOWN ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK CAN BE CLEARLY DISCERNED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
EXTENSIVE CLEARING CAN BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND MICHIGAN BACK INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THIS
AREA OF CLEARING SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA...LEADING TO
STARLIT SKIES...AT LEAST FOR A TIME. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT HOWEVER
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAIN FELL TODAY. IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE
POST-FRONTAL COOLING LATER THIS EVENING AND ADVECTION OF DRY AIR
FROM THE WEST IN DETERMINING HOW MUCH LOW CLOUD WE SEE OVERNIGHT.
FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH CONTINUITY IN THE FORECAST AND KEEP THE
CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY ACROSS THE USUAL CLOUD-PRONE AREAS. THE
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP LOWS PROPPED UP IN THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

ON WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ACROSS NEW YORK WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH MORNING CLOUDS SLOWLY BREAKING UP AND LIFTING FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL
BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. FOR OUR REGION...THIS IS MOST APPARENT IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS INCREASES 850MB TEMPERATURES TO +18C BY 00Z
FRIDAY. THERE MAY SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE DAY TO BE SUNNY WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALSO
DOWNSLOPE A BIT NORTH OF I-90. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP VERY MUCH OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
AND UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE LAKESHORES. ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD HOLD OFF...WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON FRIDAY...WITH A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO LIFT TOWARD HUDSON BAY WHILE AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR
REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON AND AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S. THERE WILL BE A GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. BUT THIS FLOW DOWNSLOPES EAST OF
ROCHESTER...WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 90.

EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY
INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE
LAKES...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. THE
12Z NAM APPEARS TOO MOIST WITH ITS SURFACE DEW POINTS...WITH MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE FORECASTING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH ML CAPES
BUILDING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. EVEN SO THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
STORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND OF THE LAKES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
FRONT...AN UPPER TROUGH JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT MAY BE BROKEN...TRAILING SHOWERS AND
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING STILL SUPPORTS LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR REGION...USHERING IN COOLER AIR
FOR THE WEEKEND. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-WESTERN STATES
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND INTO OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. SOME
GUIDANCE (NOTABLY THE GGEM) STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER SATURDAY...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE DECISIVE
PASSAGE. GIVEN THE TIMEFRAME...CAN STILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER THIS...HIGH PRESSURE GAINS CONTROL
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES ALOFT APPEAR COOL ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WHICH
SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY LIMIT SUNSHINE. THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AS A LARGE SWATH OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ANS
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. THE COLD FRONT IS
PRESENTLY ON OUR DOORSTEP AND WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
WHILE DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION SHOULD ULTIMATELY LEAD TO
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MANY AREAS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM
HEAVIER RAINS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY AFTER 03-06Z...CREATING A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KJHW.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE
EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING ON THE LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD








000
FXUS61 KBGM 030017
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
817 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRY WARM
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
745 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN PROGRESS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR MOST OF OUR CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST
ZONES. SEVERAL WARNINGS IN EFFECT...AND WITH THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR
/0-6KM 40-50 KTS/ PRESENT...DAMAGING WINDS HAS BEEN THE MAIN
PROBLEM. WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN.
DESPITE THE WIND...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
POOLING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...NOT A LOT OF LIGHTNING IN THIS ACTIVITY
BECAUSE OF VERY WARM LOWER ATMOSPHERE...AND CAPES LIMITED
GENERALLY TO 500-1000 J/KG.

ACTIVITY WILL FINISH CARRYING THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
LATER TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY MOVING EAST ACROSS PA WHILE
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW AT LOW LEVELS. WITH THE
LIGHT LL WINDS AND THE WET GROUND FOG SHOULD BE COMMON IN AT LEAST
THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY EVENING
AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. ALOFT THE FLOW WILL BE ZONAL. COOLER
AIR ON THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY MODERATE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE WHILE LOW LEVELS INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THU AROUND 80 RISE INTO THE
M80S THU AND FRI. A STRONG COLD FRONT GETS INTO SE ONTARIO LATE
FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRI WILL BE WARM AND HUMID AS A WSW FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RDG
BRINGS WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FNT APRCHS FOR SAT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND TRWS.
HIPRES BLDS BACK IN WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR THRU THE END OF THE
PD. SOME HINT FROM THE MODELS THAT THE FNT COULD STALL OUT OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC BUT IT LOOKS FOR NOW LIKE THE FNT WILL STAY WELL
SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABV NRML FOR THE
PD...XCPT FOR MON WHEN THEY WILL BE NEAR NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
LINE OF GUSTY STORMS AT 00Z KBGM-KRME AND APPROACHING
KAVP...SHOWERS BEHIND THE LINE KITH-KSYR AND SOON TO END FOR
THOSE TERMINALS. THIS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT MOVING THROUGH. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ALL OF THIS RAIN...EXPECTING MVFR TO IFR
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG OR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. KELM IN PARTICULAR
SHOULD GO DOWN HARD TO NEAR AIRPORT MINS EARLY MORNING. DRY AIR
MASS THOUGH COMING IN...AND ONCE FOG-LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT IN THE
MORNING...LOOKING AT VFR DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WNW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/TAC
NEAR TERM...MDP/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 030017
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
817 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRY WARM
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
745 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN PROGRESS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR MOST OF OUR CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST
ZONES. SEVERAL WARNINGS IN EFFECT...AND WITH THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR
/0-6KM 40-50 KTS/ PRESENT...DAMAGING WINDS HAS BEEN THE MAIN
PROBLEM. WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN.
DESPITE THE WIND...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
POOLING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...NOT A LOT OF LIGHTNING IN THIS ACTIVITY
BECAUSE OF VERY WARM LOWER ATMOSPHERE...AND CAPES LIMITED
GENERALLY TO 500-1000 J/KG.

ACTIVITY WILL FINISH CARRYING THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
LATER TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY MOVING EAST ACROSS PA WHILE
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW AT LOW LEVELS. WITH THE
LIGHT LL WINDS AND THE WET GROUND FOG SHOULD BE COMMON IN AT LEAST
THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY EVENING
AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. ALOFT THE FLOW WILL BE ZONAL. COOLER
AIR ON THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY MODERATE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE WHILE LOW LEVELS INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THU AROUND 80 RISE INTO THE
M80S THU AND FRI. A STRONG COLD FRONT GETS INTO SE ONTARIO LATE
FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRI WILL BE WARM AND HUMID AS A WSW FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RDG
BRINGS WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FNT APRCHS FOR SAT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND TRWS.
HIPRES BLDS BACK IN WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR THRU THE END OF THE
PD. SOME HINT FROM THE MODELS THAT THE FNT COULD STALL OUT OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC BUT IT LOOKS FOR NOW LIKE THE FNT WILL STAY WELL
SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABV NRML FOR THE
PD...XCPT FOR MON WHEN THEY WILL BE NEAR NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
LINE OF GUSTY STORMS AT 00Z KBGM-KRME AND APPROACHING
KAVP...SHOWERS BEHIND THE LINE KITH-KSYR AND SOON TO END FOR
THOSE TERMINALS. THIS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT MOVING THROUGH. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ALL OF THIS RAIN...EXPECTING MVFR TO IFR
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG OR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. KELM IN PARTICULAR
SHOULD GO DOWN HARD TO NEAR AIRPORT MINS EARLY MORNING. DRY AIR
MASS THOUGH COMING IN...AND ONCE FOG-LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT IN THE
MORNING...LOOKING AT VFR DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WNW
WIND.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/TAC
NEAR TERM...MDP/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBTV 030012
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
812 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SUNNY,
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY. WARM SUMMER WEATHER
RETURNS FRIDAY BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN
EARLY SATURDAY GIVING A TASTE OF FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 755 PM EDT TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
PORTION OF CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE
ITS WAY EAST THIS EVENING AND EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 04Z-
06Z. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ALONG THE
COLD FRONT...WITH POST FRONTAL RAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
ASSOCIATED WITH TRAILING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MAIN THREAT THIS
EVENING WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING...MAINLY FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FORECAST WITH LATEST UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WELL, THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY PRIMED. VERY
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS RESULTING IN MODEST SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY (CAPE PUSHING 2000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX OF -2 TO
-4C). SO FAR THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SPARSE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, HOWEVER RADAR SHOWS THE BUILDING LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT ACROSS ONTARIO. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE CROSSING
INTO THE UNITED STATES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STILL LIKE HOW
THE HRRR AND OUR LOCAL 6KM WRF ARE HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
CONVECTION. STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ETA INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
DURING THE EVENING (LET`S GO WITH 6-8PM) AND THEN INTO EASTERN
VERMONT BY 10PM. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH IS THE PRIMARY
TRIGGER FOR THE CONVECTION IS NOW OVER MICHIGAN AND STARTING TO
LIFT NORTHEAST. OUT AHEAD OF THAT SHORT WAVE THE WIND FIELDS AND
RELATED SHEAR INCREASE, BUT AT THE SAME TIME WE ARE GETTING CLOSER
TO SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING. SO IT`S A BATTLE BETWEEN TIMING OF
THE BEST DYNAMICS VS BEST INSTABILITY.

AT THIS POINT STILL SEE NOTHING TO CHANGE THE IDEA THAT WE`LL HAVE
AT LEAST A FEW STRONG T-STORMS AROUND, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND
MAINLY WEST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. HAVE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THE ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN BY MID EVENING IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
TO JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN EASTERN VERMONT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING WE GET, WE COULD HAVE A BIT OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

THE COOLER AIR LAGS THE WEATHER A BIT, SO IT WILL STILL BE A MUGGY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...IT WILL BE A QUIET 48 HOURS. SHORT TERM
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO RIDGING OVER THE REGION.

DAILY SPECIFICS...

WEDNESDAY: FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALL TO 11-12C WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. WITH SOME WEAK COLD-AIR ADVECTION AND A GOOD
DEAL OF SUN, WE`LL HAVE SOME EXCELLENT MIXING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP SOME OF THE 20KT OR SO OF WIND
THAT WILL BE A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP, SO IT SHOULD GET A LITTLE
BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CLEAR AND CALM, SO PATCHY
FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GROUND WILL STILL
BE A BIT DAMP FROM THE RAIN THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 50S, THOUGH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN COLD SPOTS LIKE SARANAC LAKE.

THURSDAY: SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARLY
OVERHEAD, BUT STARTING TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 12-13C, WHICH SUPPORTS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
HIGHS. PLENTY OF SUN AS WELL.

THURSDAY NIGHT: DISCARDED THE NAM AS IT SEEMS TOO AGRESSIVE WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PRODUCES THICKENING
CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THINK IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AND DRY PER OTHER MODELS. HOWEVER WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING, IT WON`T BE AS COLD, LOTS OF 50S AND EVEN LOW 60S FOR
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PREDOMINATELY
QUIET...LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE STARTING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND...BUT WET TO BEGIN. FOR THE START OF THE
PERIOD...RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT
SURFACE FRONT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF +20-23C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH WIDESPREAD 80`S EXPECTED.
IT`LL BE MUGGY TOO WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S WHICH
WILL CREATE AMPLE SURFACE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
WHICH WILL SHIFT INTO THE BTV CWA LATE IN THE DAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS PASSES TO OUR
NORTH...WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW
SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION WHICH IS
MAINTAINED BY THE LATEST ECMWF. GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER PUSHING
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING SO HAVE CONTINUED
ON WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF.

BY LATE SATURDAY TREND WILL BE TOWARDS CLEARER AND DRIER WEATHER AS
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS ZONAL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS HIGH THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND OFF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE
TUESDAY OFFERING A NICE STRETCH OF LATE SUMMER WEATHER. TEMPS RETURN
TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
EXPECTED HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CIGS WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR BUT VSBY WILL BE
REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. AFTER
06Z...PRECIP IS EAST OF THE REGION LEAVING GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES.
CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE VFR AT KMSS/KPBG/KBTV...BUT MVFR
AT KRUT/KSLK/KMPV WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT KRUT UNDER BLOCKED FLOW.
SOME PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK/KMPV.
AFTER 12Z...ALL CIGS LIFT TO VFR WITH SCT-BKN DIURNAL
STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THU - 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR
FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z SAT - 00Z SUN...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z SUN - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...RJS/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...RJS/LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 030012
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
812 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SUNNY,
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY. WARM SUMMER WEATHER
RETURNS FRIDAY BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN
EARLY SATURDAY GIVING A TASTE OF FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 755 PM EDT TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
PORTION OF CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE
ITS WAY EAST THIS EVENING AND EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 04Z-
06Z. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ALONG THE
COLD FRONT...WITH POST FRONTAL RAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
ASSOCIATED WITH TRAILING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MAIN THREAT THIS
EVENING WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING...MAINLY FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FORECAST WITH LATEST UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WELL, THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY PRIMED. VERY
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS RESULTING IN MODEST SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY (CAPE PUSHING 2000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX OF -2 TO
-4C). SO FAR THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SPARSE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, HOWEVER RADAR SHOWS THE BUILDING LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT ACROSS ONTARIO. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE CROSSING
INTO THE UNITED STATES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STILL LIKE HOW
THE HRRR AND OUR LOCAL 6KM WRF ARE HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
CONVECTION. STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ETA INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
DURING THE EVENING (LET`S GO WITH 6-8PM) AND THEN INTO EASTERN
VERMONT BY 10PM. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH IS THE PRIMARY
TRIGGER FOR THE CONVECTION IS NOW OVER MICHIGAN AND STARTING TO
LIFT NORTHEAST. OUT AHEAD OF THAT SHORT WAVE THE WIND FIELDS AND
RELATED SHEAR INCREASE, BUT AT THE SAME TIME WE ARE GETTING CLOSER
TO SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING. SO IT`S A BATTLE BETWEEN TIMING OF
THE BEST DYNAMICS VS BEST INSTABILITY.

AT THIS POINT STILL SEE NOTHING TO CHANGE THE IDEA THAT WE`LL HAVE
AT LEAST A FEW STRONG T-STORMS AROUND, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND
MAINLY WEST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. HAVE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THE ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN BY MID EVENING IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
TO JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN EASTERN VERMONT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING WE GET, WE COULD HAVE A BIT OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

THE COOLER AIR LAGS THE WEATHER A BIT, SO IT WILL STILL BE A MUGGY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...IT WILL BE A QUIET 48 HOURS. SHORT TERM
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO RIDGING OVER THE REGION.

DAILY SPECIFICS...

WEDNESDAY: FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALL TO 11-12C WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. WITH SOME WEAK COLD-AIR ADVECTION AND A GOOD
DEAL OF SUN, WE`LL HAVE SOME EXCELLENT MIXING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP SOME OF THE 20KT OR SO OF WIND
THAT WILL BE A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP, SO IT SHOULD GET A LITTLE
BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CLEAR AND CALM, SO PATCHY
FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GROUND WILL STILL
BE A BIT DAMP FROM THE RAIN THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 50S, THOUGH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN COLD SPOTS LIKE SARANAC LAKE.

THURSDAY: SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARLY
OVERHEAD, BUT STARTING TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 12-13C, WHICH SUPPORTS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
HIGHS. PLENTY OF SUN AS WELL.

THURSDAY NIGHT: DISCARDED THE NAM AS IT SEEMS TOO AGRESSIVE WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PRODUCES THICKENING
CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THINK IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AND DRY PER OTHER MODELS. HOWEVER WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING, IT WON`T BE AS COLD, LOTS OF 50S AND EVEN LOW 60S FOR
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PREDOMINATELY
QUIET...LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE STARTING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND...BUT WET TO BEGIN. FOR THE START OF THE
PERIOD...RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT
SURFACE FRONT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF +20-23C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH WIDESPREAD 80`S EXPECTED.
IT`LL BE MUGGY TOO WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S WHICH
WILL CREATE AMPLE SURFACE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
WHICH WILL SHIFT INTO THE BTV CWA LATE IN THE DAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS PASSES TO OUR
NORTH...WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW
SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION WHICH IS
MAINTAINED BY THE LATEST ECMWF. GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER PUSHING
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING SO HAVE CONTINUED
ON WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF.

BY LATE SATURDAY TREND WILL BE TOWARDS CLEARER AND DRIER WEATHER AS
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS ZONAL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS HIGH THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND OFF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE
TUESDAY OFFERING A NICE STRETCH OF LATE SUMMER WEATHER. TEMPS RETURN
TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
EXPECTED HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CIGS WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR BUT VSBY WILL BE
REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. AFTER
06Z...PRECIP IS EAST OF THE REGION LEAVING GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES.
CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE VFR AT KMSS/KPBG/KBTV...BUT MVFR
AT KRUT/KSLK/KMPV WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT KRUT UNDER BLOCKED FLOW.
SOME PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK/KMPV.
AFTER 12Z...ALL CIGS LIFT TO VFR WITH SCT-BKN DIURNAL
STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THU - 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR
FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z SAT - 00Z SUN...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z SUN - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...RJS/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...RJS/LAHIFF






000
FXUS61 KOKX 022355
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
755 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THEN BUILDS EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS EVENING WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY
EAST AND STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY BY AROUND
8 PM...CROSSING NYC METRO BETWEEN 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT...AND EASTERN
LI/SE CT 2 TO 5 AM.

THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN BOTH THE DEEP AND LOW- LEVEL
SHEAR AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND COLD FRONT APPROACH...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO MARGINAL
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVE PASS MAINLY NW OF THE AREA...PERHAPS
CLIPPING NW PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THUS...BETTER
LOCATIONS FOR SEVERE TSTM MAINTENANCE INTO THIS EVENING LOOK TO
BE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. BUT WITH LLJ MAINTAINING
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
EAST THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 2 AM.

A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE
LOW FOR OUR REGION. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO
BE THE MAIN THREATS...PARTICULARLY FROM NYC/NJ METRO AND POINTS
N&W. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED AND DETERIORATE AS IT TRACKS
EAST INTO LI/CT AS IT GETS FARTHER AWAY FROM MID/UPPER LEVEL
FORCING AND BETTER SHEAR.

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UP UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE SUBURBS...TO AROUND 70 NYC
METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WARM...BUT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE FEATURED ON WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. NW WINDS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS FALLING OFF
INTO THE 50S.

LOWS WED NIGHT WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC
BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO RESIDUAL ONSHORE SWELLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL TRANSITION TO SOME
WEAK RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO SLOW THE
FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S.
SOME LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY .

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES
THROUGH...LEADING TO DIFFERENCES IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME
THOUGH...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY...ENDING SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE
70S...WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE WELL IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ISO/SCT TSTMS WITH BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. MOST LIKELY THOUGH
IN THE GENERAL TIME WINDOW OF 0130-0330Z FOR THE CITY
TERMINALS...KHPN AND KSWF WHERE THERE IS A ONE HOUR TEMPO FOR
TSRA...02-03Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH A S-SW FLOW AROUND
10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KT INTO EARLY EVE BECOMES MORE W-NW
LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH THE SAME SUSTAINED SPEEDS.
W-NW FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME BACKING OF
FLOW TO W-SW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR
FROM TAF AND COULD LAST AN EXTRA HOUR THAN IN TAF. TIMING OF SW
WIND SHIFT WEDNESDAY COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR
FROM TAF AND COULD LAST AN EXTRA HOUR THAN IN TAF. AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR
FROM TAF AND COULD LAST AN EXTRA HOUR THAN IN TAF. AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR
FROM TAF AND COULD LAST AN EXTRA HOUR THAN IN TAF. AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR
FROM TAF AND COULD LAST AN EXTRA HOUR THAN IN TAF. AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FUTURE AMENDMENTS COULD INCLUDE A ONE HOUR
TEMPO FOR -TSRA DEPENDING ON HOW THEY EVOLVE OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
WINDS COULD BECOME MORE W-SW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.WED NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...SUB-VFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY WINDS JUST AHEAD OF AND NW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT INTO WED WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS. UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE OCEAN
TONIGHT...KEEPING SEAS AT 2 TO 4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...NV/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC/JM
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 022355
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
755 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THEN BUILDS EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS EVENING WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY
EAST AND STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY BY AROUND
8 PM...CROSSING NYC METRO BETWEEN 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT...AND EASTERN
LI/SE CT 2 TO 5 AM.

THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN BOTH THE DEEP AND LOW- LEVEL
SHEAR AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND COLD FRONT APPROACH...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO MARGINAL
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVE PASS MAINLY NW OF THE AREA...PERHAPS
CLIPPING NW PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THUS...BETTER
LOCATIONS FOR SEVERE TSTM MAINTENANCE INTO THIS EVENING LOOK TO
BE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. BUT WITH LLJ MAINTAINING
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
EAST THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 2 AM.

A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE
LOW FOR OUR REGION. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO
BE THE MAIN THREATS...PARTICULARLY FROM NYC/NJ METRO AND POINTS
N&W. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED AND DETERIORATE AS IT TRACKS
EAST INTO LI/CT AS IT GETS FARTHER AWAY FROM MID/UPPER LEVEL
FORCING AND BETTER SHEAR.

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UP UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE SUBURBS...TO AROUND 70 NYC
METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WARM...BUT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE FEATURED ON WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. NW WINDS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS FALLING OFF
INTO THE 50S.

LOWS WED NIGHT WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC
BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO RESIDUAL ONSHORE SWELLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL TRANSITION TO SOME
WEAK RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO SLOW THE
FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S.
SOME LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY .

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES
THROUGH...LEADING TO DIFFERENCES IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME
THOUGH...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY...ENDING SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE
70S...WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE WELL IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ISO/SCT TSTMS WITH BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. MOST LIKELY THOUGH
IN THE GENERAL TIME WINDOW OF 0130-0330Z FOR THE CITY
TERMINALS...KHPN AND KSWF WHERE THERE IS A ONE HOUR TEMPO FOR
TSRA...02-03Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH A S-SW FLOW AROUND
10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KT INTO EARLY EVE BECOMES MORE W-NW
LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH THE SAME SUSTAINED SPEEDS.
W-NW FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME BACKING OF
FLOW TO W-SW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR
FROM TAF AND COULD LAST AN EXTRA HOUR THAN IN TAF. TIMING OF SW
WIND SHIFT WEDNESDAY COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR
FROM TAF AND COULD LAST AN EXTRA HOUR THAN IN TAF. AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR
FROM TAF AND COULD LAST AN EXTRA HOUR THAN IN TAF. AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR
FROM TAF AND COULD LAST AN EXTRA HOUR THAN IN TAF. AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR
FROM TAF AND COULD LAST AN EXTRA HOUR THAN IN TAF. AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FUTURE AMENDMENTS COULD INCLUDE A ONE HOUR
TEMPO FOR -TSRA DEPENDING ON HOW THEY EVOLVE OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
WINDS COULD BECOME MORE W-SW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.WED NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...SUB-VFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY WINDS JUST AHEAD OF AND NW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT INTO WED WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS. UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE OCEAN
TONIGHT...KEEPING SEAS AT 2 TO 4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...NV/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC/JM
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 022129
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
529 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THEN BUILDS EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG...BUT A WEAKLY SHEARED/CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT.

A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN PA LATE THIS AFT WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY
EAST AND REACH THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY BY AROUND 8 PM...NYC METRO
10 PM TO MIDNIGHT...AND EASTERN LI/SE CT 2 TO 5 AM. THERE IS SOME
INCREASE IN BOTH THE DEEP AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...HOWERVER...AIRMASS
WILL STABILIZE SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. IN
ADDITION...DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET PASS
PRIMARILY NW OF THE AREA...PERHAPS CLIPPING NW PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THUS...PRIMARILY FORECASTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION...BUT A STORM MOTION AROUND 30
KT SHOULD LIMIT ANY FLOODING TO THE MINOR NUISANCE VARIETY. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
BE NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UP UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE SUBURBS...TO AROUND 70 NYC
METRO.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WARM...BUT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE FEATURED ON WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. NW WINDS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS FALLING OFF
INTO THE 50S.

LOWS WED NIGHT WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC
BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO RESIDUAL ONSHORE SWELLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL TRANSITION TO SOME
WEAK RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO SLOW THE
FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S.
SOME LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY .

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES
THROUGH...LEADING TO DIFFERENCES IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME
THOUGH...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY...ENDING SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE
70S...WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE WELL IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ISO/SCT TSTMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME. MOST LIKELY
THOUGH IN THE TIME WINDOW OF 02-04Z NEAR THE CITY TERMINALS AND
KSWF WHERE THERE IS A ONE HOUR TEMPO FOR -TSRA WITH EXPECTING SOME
LOSS OF INTENSITY WHEN THEY ARRIVE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
A S-SW FLOW AROUND 10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KT INTO EARLY EVE
BECOMES MORE W-NW LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH THE SAME
SUSTAINED SPEEDS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR FROM TAF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD BE MORE OCCASIONAL INTO EARLY
EVENING. TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR FROM TAF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD BE MORE OCCASIONAL INTO EARLY
EVENING. TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR FROM TAF.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR FROM TAF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY EVENING. FUTURE AMENDMENTS COULD INCLUDE A ONE HOUR TEMPO
FOR -TSRA DEPENDING ON HOW THEY EVOLVE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY EVENING. FUTURE AMENDMENTS COULD INCLUDE A ONE HOUR TEMPO
FOR -TSRA DEPENDING ON HOW THEY EVOLVE OVER NEXT 4-5 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH FRI...
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...SUB-VFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY WINDS JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO WED
WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT...KEEPING
SEAS AT 2 TO 4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC/JM
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 022129
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
529 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THEN BUILDS EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG...BUT A WEAKLY SHEARED/CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT.

A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN PA LATE THIS AFT WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY
EAST AND REACH THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY BY AROUND 8 PM...NYC METRO
10 PM TO MIDNIGHT...AND EASTERN LI/SE CT 2 TO 5 AM. THERE IS SOME
INCREASE IN BOTH THE DEEP AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...HOWERVER...AIRMASS
WILL STABILIZE SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. IN
ADDITION...DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET PASS
PRIMARILY NW OF THE AREA...PERHAPS CLIPPING NW PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THUS...PRIMARILY FORECASTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION...BUT A STORM MOTION AROUND 30
KT SHOULD LIMIT ANY FLOODING TO THE MINOR NUISANCE VARIETY. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
BE NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UP UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE SUBURBS...TO AROUND 70 NYC
METRO.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WARM...BUT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE FEATURED ON WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. NW WINDS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS FALLING OFF
INTO THE 50S.

LOWS WED NIGHT WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC
BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO RESIDUAL ONSHORE SWELLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL TRANSITION TO SOME
WEAK RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO SLOW THE
FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S.
SOME LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY .

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES
THROUGH...LEADING TO DIFFERENCES IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME
THOUGH...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY...ENDING SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE
70S...WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE WELL IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ISO/SCT TSTMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME. MOST LIKELY
THOUGH IN THE TIME WINDOW OF 02-04Z NEAR THE CITY TERMINALS AND
KSWF WHERE THERE IS A ONE HOUR TEMPO FOR -TSRA WITH EXPECTING SOME
LOSS OF INTENSITY WHEN THEY ARRIVE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
A S-SW FLOW AROUND 10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KT INTO EARLY EVE
BECOMES MORE W-NW LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH THE SAME
SUSTAINED SPEEDS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR FROM TAF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD BE MORE OCCASIONAL INTO EARLY
EVENING. TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR FROM TAF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD BE MORE OCCASIONAL INTO EARLY
EVENING. TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR FROM TAF.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR FROM TAF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY EVENING. FUTURE AMENDMENTS COULD INCLUDE A ONE HOUR TEMPO
FOR -TSRA DEPENDING ON HOW THEY EVOLVE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY EVENING. FUTURE AMENDMENTS COULD INCLUDE A ONE HOUR TEMPO
FOR -TSRA DEPENDING ON HOW THEY EVOLVE OVER NEXT 4-5 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH FRI...
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...SUB-VFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY WINDS JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO WED
WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT...KEEPING
SEAS AT 2 TO 4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC/JM
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW









000
FXUS61 KBGM 022051
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
451 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRY
WARM WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
445 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 10 PM...02Z.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED BY BUF AND CTP. NO
REPORTS YET. BROKEN LINE ON NW EDGE OF CWA SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
MIDDLE OF CWA AROUND 00Z AND OUT NEAR 2Z. PRODUCTS UPDATED AND
DAMAGING WINDS ADDED TO GRIDS.

3 PM UPDATE...

WARM HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN SE
ONTARIO. LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD THE FRONT FROM
NE NY TO WRN NY AND WRN PA. CONVECTION BRUSHING THE FAR NORTH NOW
BUT BULK OF IT WILL COME IN 5 TO 8 PM. CONVECTION EXITS SE TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. THE ENTIRE CWA WILL HAVE AT LEAST ONE ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE EVE DIURNAL HEATING DIES WITH WEAKER
WINDS IN THE SE SO TSTORMS WILL BE DYING. IN THE NW HALF BEST CHC
OF SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO DAMAGING WINDS. CAPE CURRENTLY OVER 1K
WITH SFC TEMPS IN 80S WITH DEWPTS POOLING A70. BULK 6KM SHEAR WILL
GET TO 50 KT BUT LL SHEAR WEAK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE
TURNING. BEST FORCING ACROSS NY.

LATE TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY MOVING EAST ACROSS PA WHILE
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW AT LOW LEVELS. WITH THE
LIGHT LL WINDS AND THE WET GROUND FOG SHOULD BE COMMON IN AT LEAST
THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY EVENING
AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. ALOFT THE FLOW WILL BE ZONAL. COOLER
AIR ON THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY MODERATE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE WHILE LOW LEVELS INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THU AROUND 80 RISE INTO THE
M80S THU AND FRI. A STRONG COLD FRONT GETS INTO SE ONTARIO LATE
FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRI WILL BE WARM AND HUMID AS A WSW FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RDG
BRINGS WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FNT APRCHS FOR SAT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND TRWS.
HIPRES BLDS BACK IN WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR THRU THE END OF THE
PD. SOME HINT FROM THE MODELS THAT THE FNT COULD STALL OUT OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC BUT IT LOOKS FOR NOW LIKE THE FNT WILL STAY WELL
SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABV NRML FOR THE
PD...XCPT FOR MON WHEN THEY WILL BE NEAR NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT APRCHG THE AREA THIS AFTN TRIGGERING CONV OVER SW
ONTARIO. MODELS IN RSNBL AGREEMENT FOR THE TIMING OF THE FNT AND
BEST CHANCE OF TRWS WITH RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 21Z OND 02Z OVER THE
AREA. XPCT GRADUAL CLRG BHD THE FNT WITH VERY DRY AIR MVG IN.
XCPTN WILL BE AT ELM ONCE AGAIN AS THE ATMOS DECPLS AND WET GND
HELPS DVLP DENSE FOG AND VLIFR FOR SVRL HRS BEFORE DAWN. VFR
RETURNS TO ELM AND CONTS ELSWHERE THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 022051
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
451 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRY
WARM WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
445 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 10 PM...02Z.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED BY BUF AND CTP. NO
REPORTS YET. BROKEN LINE ON NW EDGE OF CWA SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
MIDDLE OF CWA AROUND 00Z AND OUT NEAR 2Z. PRODUCTS UPDATED AND
DAMAGING WINDS ADDED TO GRIDS.

3 PM UPDATE...

WARM HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN SE
ONTARIO. LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD THE FRONT FROM
NE NY TO WRN NY AND WRN PA. CONVECTION BRUSHING THE FAR NORTH NOW
BUT BULK OF IT WILL COME IN 5 TO 8 PM. CONVECTION EXITS SE TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. THE ENTIRE CWA WILL HAVE AT LEAST ONE ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE EVE DIURNAL HEATING DIES WITH WEAKER
WINDS IN THE SE SO TSTORMS WILL BE DYING. IN THE NW HALF BEST CHC
OF SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO DAMAGING WINDS. CAPE CURRENTLY OVER 1K
WITH SFC TEMPS IN 80S WITH DEWPTS POOLING A70. BULK 6KM SHEAR WILL
GET TO 50 KT BUT LL SHEAR WEAK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE
TURNING. BEST FORCING ACROSS NY.

LATE TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY MOVING EAST ACROSS PA WHILE
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW AT LOW LEVELS. WITH THE
LIGHT LL WINDS AND THE WET GROUND FOG SHOULD BE COMMON IN AT LEAST
THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY EVENING
AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. ALOFT THE FLOW WILL BE ZONAL. COOLER
AIR ON THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY MODERATE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE WHILE LOW LEVELS INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THU AROUND 80 RISE INTO THE
M80S THU AND FRI. A STRONG COLD FRONT GETS INTO SE ONTARIO LATE
FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRI WILL BE WARM AND HUMID AS A WSW FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RDG
BRINGS WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FNT APRCHS FOR SAT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND TRWS.
HIPRES BLDS BACK IN WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR THRU THE END OF THE
PD. SOME HINT FROM THE MODELS THAT THE FNT COULD STALL OUT OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC BUT IT LOOKS FOR NOW LIKE THE FNT WILL STAY WELL
SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABV NRML FOR THE
PD...XCPT FOR MON WHEN THEY WILL BE NEAR NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT APRCHG THE AREA THIS AFTN TRIGGERING CONV OVER SW
ONTARIO. MODELS IN RSNBL AGREEMENT FOR THE TIMING OF THE FNT AND
BEST CHANCE OF TRWS WITH RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 21Z OND 02Z OVER THE
AREA. XPCT GRADUAL CLRG BHD THE FNT WITH VERY DRY AIR MVG IN.
XCPTN WILL BE AT ELM ONCE AGAIN AS THE ATMOS DECPLS AND WET GND
HELPS DVLP DENSE FOG AND VLIFR FOR SVRL HRS BEFORE DAWN. VFR
RETURNS TO ELM AND CONTS ELSWHERE THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 022051
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
451 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRY
WARM WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
445 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 10 PM...02Z.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED BY BUF AND CTP. NO
REPORTS YET. BROKEN LINE ON NW EDGE OF CWA SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
MIDDLE OF CWA AROUND 00Z AND OUT NEAR 2Z. PRODUCTS UPDATED AND
DAMAGING WINDS ADDED TO GRIDS.

3 PM UPDATE...

WARM HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN SE
ONTARIO. LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD THE FRONT FROM
NE NY TO WRN NY AND WRN PA. CONVECTION BRUSHING THE FAR NORTH NOW
BUT BULK OF IT WILL COME IN 5 TO 8 PM. CONVECTION EXITS SE TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. THE ENTIRE CWA WILL HAVE AT LEAST ONE ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE EVE DIURNAL HEATING DIES WITH WEAKER
WINDS IN THE SE SO TSTORMS WILL BE DYING. IN THE NW HALF BEST CHC
OF SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO DAMAGING WINDS. CAPE CURRENTLY OVER 1K
WITH SFC TEMPS IN 80S WITH DEWPTS POOLING A70. BULK 6KM SHEAR WILL
GET TO 50 KT BUT LL SHEAR WEAK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE
TURNING. BEST FORCING ACROSS NY.

LATE TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY MOVING EAST ACROSS PA WHILE
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW AT LOW LEVELS. WITH THE
LIGHT LL WINDS AND THE WET GROUND FOG SHOULD BE COMMON IN AT LEAST
THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY EVENING
AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. ALOFT THE FLOW WILL BE ZONAL. COOLER
AIR ON THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY MODERATE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE WHILE LOW LEVELS INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THU AROUND 80 RISE INTO THE
M80S THU AND FRI. A STRONG COLD FRONT GETS INTO SE ONTARIO LATE
FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRI WILL BE WARM AND HUMID AS A WSW FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RDG
BRINGS WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FNT APRCHS FOR SAT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND TRWS.
HIPRES BLDS BACK IN WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR THRU THE END OF THE
PD. SOME HINT FROM THE MODELS THAT THE FNT COULD STALL OUT OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC BUT IT LOOKS FOR NOW LIKE THE FNT WILL STAY WELL
SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABV NRML FOR THE
PD...XCPT FOR MON WHEN THEY WILL BE NEAR NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT APRCHG THE AREA THIS AFTN TRIGGERING CONV OVER SW
ONTARIO. MODELS IN RSNBL AGREEMENT FOR THE TIMING OF THE FNT AND
BEST CHANCE OF TRWS WITH RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 21Z OND 02Z OVER THE
AREA. XPCT GRADUAL CLRG BHD THE FNT WITH VERY DRY AIR MVG IN.
XCPTN WILL BE AT ELM ONCE AGAIN AS THE ATMOS DECPLS AND WET GND
HELPS DVLP DENSE FOG AND VLIFR FOR SVRL HRS BEFORE DAWN. VFR
RETURNS TO ELM AND CONTS ELSWHERE THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 022051
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
451 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRY
WARM WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
445 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 10 PM...02Z.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED BY BUF AND CTP. NO
REPORTS YET. BROKEN LINE ON NW EDGE OF CWA SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
MIDDLE OF CWA AROUND 00Z AND OUT NEAR 2Z. PRODUCTS UPDATED AND
DAMAGING WINDS ADDED TO GRIDS.

3 PM UPDATE...

WARM HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN SE
ONTARIO. LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD THE FRONT FROM
NE NY TO WRN NY AND WRN PA. CONVECTION BRUSHING THE FAR NORTH NOW
BUT BULK OF IT WILL COME IN 5 TO 8 PM. CONVECTION EXITS SE TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. THE ENTIRE CWA WILL HAVE AT LEAST ONE ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE EVE DIURNAL HEATING DIES WITH WEAKER
WINDS IN THE SE SO TSTORMS WILL BE DYING. IN THE NW HALF BEST CHC
OF SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO DAMAGING WINDS. CAPE CURRENTLY OVER 1K
WITH SFC TEMPS IN 80S WITH DEWPTS POOLING A70. BULK 6KM SHEAR WILL
GET TO 50 KT BUT LL SHEAR WEAK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE
TURNING. BEST FORCING ACROSS NY.

LATE TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY MOVING EAST ACROSS PA WHILE
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW AT LOW LEVELS. WITH THE
LIGHT LL WINDS AND THE WET GROUND FOG SHOULD BE COMMON IN AT LEAST
THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY EVENING
AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. ALOFT THE FLOW WILL BE ZONAL. COOLER
AIR ON THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY MODERATE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE WHILE LOW LEVELS INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THU AROUND 80 RISE INTO THE
M80S THU AND FRI. A STRONG COLD FRONT GETS INTO SE ONTARIO LATE
FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRI WILL BE WARM AND HUMID AS A WSW FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RDG
BRINGS WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FNT APRCHS FOR SAT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND TRWS.
HIPRES BLDS BACK IN WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR THRU THE END OF THE
PD. SOME HINT FROM THE MODELS THAT THE FNT COULD STALL OUT OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC BUT IT LOOKS FOR NOW LIKE THE FNT WILL STAY WELL
SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABV NRML FOR THE
PD...XCPT FOR MON WHEN THEY WILL BE NEAR NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT APRCHG THE AREA THIS AFTN TRIGGERING CONV OVER SW
ONTARIO. MODELS IN RSNBL AGREEMENT FOR THE TIMING OF THE FNT AND
BEST CHANCE OF TRWS WITH RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 21Z OND 02Z OVER THE
AREA. XPCT GRADUAL CLRG BHD THE FNT WITH VERY DRY AIR MVG IN.
XCPTN WILL BE AT ELM ONCE AGAIN AS THE ATMOS DECPLS AND WET GND
HELPS DVLP DENSE FOG AND VLIFR FOR SVRL HRS BEFORE DAWN. VFR
RETURNS TO ELM AND CONTS ELSWHERE THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 022012
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
412 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRY
WARM WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
3 PM UPDATE...

WARM HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN SE
ONTARIO. LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD THE FRONT FROM
NE NY TO WRN NY AND WRN PA. CONVECTION BRUSHING THE FAR NORTH NOW
BUT BULK OF IT WILL COME IN 5 TO 8 PM. CONVECTION EXITS SE TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. THE ENTIRE CWA WILL HAVE AT LEAST ONE ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE EVE DIURNAL HEATING DIES WITH WEAKER
WINDS IN THE SE SO TSTORMS WILL BE DYING. IN THE NW HALF BEST CHC
OF SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO DAMAGING WINDS. CAPE CURRENTLY OVER 1K
WITH SFC TEMPS IN 80S WITH DEWPTS POOLING A70. BULK 6KM SHEAR WILL
GET TO 50 KT BUT LL SHEAR WEAK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE
TURNING. BEST FORCING ACROSS NY.

LATE TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY MOVING EAST ACROSS PA WHILE
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW AT LOW LEVELS. WITH THE
LIGHT LL WINDS AND THE WET GROUND FOG SHOULD BE COMMON IN AT LEAST
THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY EVENING
AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. ALOFT THE FLOW WILL BE ZONAL. COOLER
AIR ON THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY MODERATE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE WHILE LOW LEVELS INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THU AROUND 80 RISE INTO THE
M80S THU AND FRI. A STRONG COLD FRONT GETS INTO SE ONTARIO LATE
FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRI WILL BE WARM AND HUMID AS A WSW FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RDG
BRINGS WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FNT APRCHS FOR SAT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND TRWS.
HIPRES BLDS BACK IN WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR THRU THE END OF THE
PD. SOME HINT FROM THE MODELS THAT THE FNT COULD STALL OUT OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC BUT IT LOOKS FOR NOW LIKE THE FNT WILL STAY WELL
SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABV NRML FOR THE
PD...XCPT FOR MON WHEN THEY WILL BE NEAR NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT APRCHG THE AREA THIS AFTN TRIGGERING CONV OVER SW
ONTARIO. MODELS IN RSNBL AGREEMENT FOR THE TIMING OF THE FNT AND
BEST CHANCE OF TRWS WITH RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 21Z OND 02Z OVER THE
AREA. XPCT GRADUAL CLRG BHD THE FNT WITH VERY DRY AIR MVG IN.
XCPTN WILL BE AT ELM ONCE AGAIN AS THE ATMOS DECPLS AND WET GND
HELPS DVLP DENSE FOG AND VLIFR FOR SVRL HRS BEFORE DAWN. VFR
RETURNS TO ELM AND CONTS ELSWHERE THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM






000
FXUS61 KBGM 022012
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
412 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRY
WARM WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
3 PM UPDATE...

WARM HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN SE
ONTARIO. LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD THE FRONT FROM
NE NY TO WRN NY AND WRN PA. CONVECTION BRUSHING THE FAR NORTH NOW
BUT BULK OF IT WILL COME IN 5 TO 8 PM. CONVECTION EXITS SE TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. THE ENTIRE CWA WILL HAVE AT LEAST ONE ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE EVE DIURNAL HEATING DIES WITH WEAKER
WINDS IN THE SE SO TSTORMS WILL BE DYING. IN THE NW HALF BEST CHC
OF SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO DAMAGING WINDS. CAPE CURRENTLY OVER 1K
WITH SFC TEMPS IN 80S WITH DEWPTS POOLING A70. BULK 6KM SHEAR WILL
GET TO 50 KT BUT LL SHEAR WEAK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE
TURNING. BEST FORCING ACROSS NY.

LATE TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY MOVING EAST ACROSS PA WHILE
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW AT LOW LEVELS. WITH THE
LIGHT LL WINDS AND THE WET GROUND FOG SHOULD BE COMMON IN AT LEAST
THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY EVENING
AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. ALOFT THE FLOW WILL BE ZONAL. COOLER
AIR ON THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY MODERATE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE WHILE LOW LEVELS INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THU AROUND 80 RISE INTO THE
M80S THU AND FRI. A STRONG COLD FRONT GETS INTO SE ONTARIO LATE
FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRI WILL BE WARM AND HUMID AS A WSW FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RDG
BRINGS WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FNT APRCHS FOR SAT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND TRWS.
HIPRES BLDS BACK IN WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR THRU THE END OF THE
PD. SOME HINT FROM THE MODELS THAT THE FNT COULD STALL OUT OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC BUT IT LOOKS FOR NOW LIKE THE FNT WILL STAY WELL
SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABV NRML FOR THE
PD...XCPT FOR MON WHEN THEY WILL BE NEAR NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT APRCHG THE AREA THIS AFTN TRIGGERING CONV OVER SW
ONTARIO. MODELS IN RSNBL AGREEMENT FOR THE TIMING OF THE FNT AND
BEST CHANCE OF TRWS WITH RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 21Z OND 02Z OVER THE
AREA. XPCT GRADUAL CLRG BHD THE FNT WITH VERY DRY AIR MVG IN.
XCPTN WILL BE AT ELM ONCE AGAIN AS THE ATMOS DECPLS AND WET GND
HELPS DVLP DENSE FOG AND VLIFR FOR SVRL HRS BEFORE DAWN. VFR
RETURNS TO ELM AND CONTS ELSWHERE THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM







000
FXUS61 KOKX 022001
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
401 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THEN BUILDS EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG...BUT A WEAKLY SHEARED/CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT.

A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN PA LATE THIS AFT WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY
EAST AND REACH THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY BY AROUND 8 PM...NYC METRO
10 PM TO MIDNIGHT...AND EASTERN LI/SE CT 2 TO 5 AM. THERE IS SOME
INCREASE IN BOTH THE DEEP AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...HOWERVER...AIRMASS
WILL STABILIZE SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. IN
ADDITION...DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET PASS
PRIMARILY NW OF THE AREA...PERHAPS CLIPPING NW PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THUS...PRIMARILY FORECASTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION...BUT A STORM MOTION AROUND 30
KT SHOULD LIMIT ANY FLOODING TO THE MINOR NUISANCE VARIETY. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
BE NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UP UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE SUBURBS...TO AROUND 70 NYC
METRO.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WARM...BUT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE FEATURED ON WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. NW WINDS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS FALLING OFF
INTO THE 50S.

LOWS WED NIGHT WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL TRANSITION TO SOME
WEAK RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO SLOW THE
FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S.
SOME LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY .

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES
THROUGH...LEADING TO DIFFERENCES IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME
THOUGH...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY...ENDING SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE
70S...WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE WELL IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR. ISO/SCT TSTMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT ANY
TIME...BUT MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR ROUGHLY 02-05Z NEAR THE CITY
TERMINALS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT IN TSRA
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS...WILL LEAVE IN VCSH DURING THIS PERIOD FOR NOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT INTO EARLY EVENING.
ANY AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM POTENTIAL.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE COULD POTENTIALLY SHIFT WINDS TO
THE SOUTH AROUND 21Z. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS 17-20 KT INTO EARLY EVENING. ANY
AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM POTENTIAL.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM
POTENTIAL.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM
POTENTIAL.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM
POTENTIAL.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH FRI...
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...SUB-VFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY WINDS JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO WED
WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT...KEEPING
SEAS AT 2 TO 4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 022001
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
401 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THEN BUILDS EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG...BUT A WEAKLY SHEARED/CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT.

A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN PA LATE THIS AFT WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY
EAST AND REACH THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY BY AROUND 8 PM...NYC METRO
10 PM TO MIDNIGHT...AND EASTERN LI/SE CT 2 TO 5 AM. THERE IS SOME
INCREASE IN BOTH THE DEEP AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...HOWERVER...AIRMASS
WILL STABILIZE SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. IN
ADDITION...DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET PASS
PRIMARILY NW OF THE AREA...PERHAPS CLIPPING NW PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THUS...PRIMARILY FORECASTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION...BUT A STORM MOTION AROUND 30
KT SHOULD LIMIT ANY FLOODING TO THE MINOR NUISANCE VARIETY. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
BE NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UP UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE SUBURBS...TO AROUND 70 NYC
METRO.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WARM...BUT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE FEATURED ON WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. NW WINDS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS FALLING OFF
INTO THE 50S.

LOWS WED NIGHT WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL TRANSITION TO SOME
WEAK RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO SLOW THE
FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S.
SOME LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY .

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES
THROUGH...LEADING TO DIFFERENCES IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME
THOUGH...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY...ENDING SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE
70S...WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE WELL IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR. ISO/SCT TSTMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT ANY
TIME...BUT MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR ROUGHLY 02-05Z NEAR THE CITY
TERMINALS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT IN TSRA
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS...WILL LEAVE IN VCSH DURING THIS PERIOD FOR NOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT INTO EARLY EVENING.
ANY AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM POTENTIAL.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE COULD POTENTIALLY SHIFT WINDS TO
THE SOUTH AROUND 21Z. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS 17-20 KT INTO EARLY EVENING. ANY
AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM POTENTIAL.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM
POTENTIAL.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM
POTENTIAL.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM
POTENTIAL.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH FRI...
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...SUB-VFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY WINDS JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO WED
WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT...KEEPING
SEAS AT 2 TO 4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW







000
FXUS61 KBTV 021959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SUNNY,
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY. WARM SUMMER WEATHER
RETURNS FRIDAY BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN
EARLY SATURDAY GIVING A TASTE OF FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...WELL, THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY PRIMED.
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS RESULTING IN MODEST SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY (CAPE PUSHING 2000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX OF -2 TO
-4C). SO FAR THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SPARSE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, HOWEVER RADAR SHOWS THE BUILDING LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT ACROSS ONTARIO. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE CROSSING
INTO THE UNITED STATES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STILL LIKE HOW
THE HRRR AND OUR LOCAL 6KM WRF ARE HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
CONVECTION. STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ETA INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
DURING THE EVENING (LET`S GO WITH 6-8PM) AND THEN INTO EASTERN
VERMONT BY 10PM. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH IS THE PRIMARY
TRIGGER FOR THE CONVECTION IS NOW OVER MICHIGAN AND STARTING TO
LIFT NORTHEAST. OUT AHEAD OF THAT SHORT WAVE THE WIND FIELDS AND
RELATED SHEAR INCREASE, BUT AT THE SAME TIME WE ARE GETTING CLOSER
TO SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING. SO IT`S A BATTLE BETWEEN TIMING OF
THE BEST DYNAMICS VS BEST INSTABILITY.

AT THIS POINT STILL SEE NOTHING TO CHANGE THE IDEA THAT WE`LL HAVE
AT LEAST A FEW STRONG T-STORMS AROUND, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND
MAINLY WEST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. HAVE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THE ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN BY MID EVENING IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
TO JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN EASTERN VERMONT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING WE GET, WE COULD HAVE A BIT OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

THE COOLER AIR LAGS THE WEATHER A BIT, SO IT WILL STILL BE A MUGGY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...IT WILL BE A QUIET 48 HOURS. SHORT TERM
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO RIDGING OVER THE REGION.

DAILY SPECIFICS...

WEDNESDAY: FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALL TO 11-12C WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. WITH SOME WEAK COLD-AIR ADVECTION AND A GOOD
DEAL OF SUN, WE`LL HAVE SOME EXCELLENT MIXING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP SOME OF THE 20KT OR SO OF WIND
THAT WILL BE A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP, SO IT SHOULD GET A LITTLE
BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CLEAR AND CALM, SO PATCHY
FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GROUND WILL STILL
BE A BIT DAMP FROM THE RAIN THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 50S, THOUGH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN COLD SPOTS LIKE SARANAC LAKE.

THURSDAY: SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARLY
OVERHEAD, BUT STARTING TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 12-13C, WHICH SUPPORTS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
HIGHS. PLENTY OF SUN AS WELL.

THURSDAY NIGHT: DISCARDED THE NAM AS IT SEEMS TOO AGRESSIVE WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PRODUCES THICKENING
CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THINK IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AND DRY PER OTHER MODELS. HOWEVER WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING, IT WON`T BE AS COLD, LOTS OF 50S AND EVEN LOW 60S FOR
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PREDOMINATELY
QUIET...LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE STARTING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND...BUT WET TO BEGIN. FOR THE START OF THE
PERIOD...RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT
SURFACE FRONT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF +20-23C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH WIDESPREAD 80`S EXPECTED.
IT`LL BE MUGGY TOO WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S WHICH
WILL CREATE AMPLE SURFACE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
WHICH WILL SHIFT INTO THE BTV CWA LATE IN THE DAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS PASSES TO OUR
NORTH...WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW
SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION WHICH IS
MAINTAINED BY THE LATEST ECMWF. GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER PUSHING
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING SO HAVE CONTINUED
ON WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF.

BY LATE SATURDAY TREND WILL BE TOWARDS CLEARER AND DRIER WEATHER AS
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS ZONAL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS HIGH THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND OFF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE
TUESDAY OFFERING A NICE STRETCH OF LATE SUMMER WEATHER. TEMPS RETURN
TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
EXPECTED HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DETERIORATE TO VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CIGS WILL PRIMARILY
REMAIN VFR BUT VSBY WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR AS STORMS PASS.
AFTER 06Z...PRECIP IS EAST OF THE REGION LEAVING GENERALLY CLOUDY
SKIES. CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE VFR AT KMSS/KPBG/KBTV...BUT
MVFR AT KRUT/KSLK/KMPV WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT KRUT UNDER BLOCKED
FLOW. AFTER 12Z...ALL CIGS LIFT TO VFR WITH SCT-BKN DIURNAL
STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WED - 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z SAT - 00Z SUN...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z SUN - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 021959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SUNNY,
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY. WARM SUMMER WEATHER
RETURNS FRIDAY BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN
EARLY SATURDAY GIVING A TASTE OF FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...WELL, THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY PRIMED.
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS RESULTING IN MODEST SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY (CAPE PUSHING 2000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX OF -2 TO
-4C). SO FAR THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SPARSE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, HOWEVER RADAR SHOWS THE BUILDING LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT ACROSS ONTARIO. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE CROSSING
INTO THE UNITED STATES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STILL LIKE HOW
THE HRRR AND OUR LOCAL 6KM WRF ARE HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
CONVECTION. STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ETA INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
DURING THE EVENING (LET`S GO WITH 6-8PM) AND THEN INTO EASTERN
VERMONT BY 10PM. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH IS THE PRIMARY
TRIGGER FOR THE CONVECTION IS NOW OVER MICHIGAN AND STARTING TO
LIFT NORTHEAST. OUT AHEAD OF THAT SHORT WAVE THE WIND FIELDS AND
RELATED SHEAR INCREASE, BUT AT THE SAME TIME WE ARE GETTING CLOSER
TO SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING. SO IT`S A BATTLE BETWEEN TIMING OF
THE BEST DYNAMICS VS BEST INSTABILITY.

AT THIS POINT STILL SEE NOTHING TO CHANGE THE IDEA THAT WE`LL HAVE
AT LEAST A FEW STRONG T-STORMS AROUND, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND
MAINLY WEST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. HAVE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THE ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN BY MID EVENING IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
TO JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN EASTERN VERMONT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING WE GET, WE COULD HAVE A BIT OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

THE COOLER AIR LAGS THE WEATHER A BIT, SO IT WILL STILL BE A MUGGY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...IT WILL BE A QUIET 48 HOURS. SHORT TERM
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO RIDGING OVER THE REGION.

DAILY SPECIFICS...

WEDNESDAY: FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALL TO 11-12C WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. WITH SOME WEAK COLD-AIR ADVECTION AND A GOOD
DEAL OF SUN, WE`LL HAVE SOME EXCELLENT MIXING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP SOME OF THE 20KT OR SO OF WIND
THAT WILL BE A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP, SO IT SHOULD GET A LITTLE
BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CLEAR AND CALM, SO PATCHY
FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GROUND WILL STILL
BE A BIT DAMP FROM THE RAIN THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 50S, THOUGH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN COLD SPOTS LIKE SARANAC LAKE.

THURSDAY: SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARLY
OVERHEAD, BUT STARTING TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO 12-13C, WHICH SUPPORTS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
HIGHS. PLENTY OF SUN AS WELL.

THURSDAY NIGHT: DISCARDED THE NAM AS IT SEEMS TOO AGRESSIVE WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PRODUCES THICKENING
CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THINK IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AND DRY PER OTHER MODELS. HOWEVER WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING, IT WON`T BE AS COLD, LOTS OF 50S AND EVEN LOW 60S FOR
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PREDOMINATELY
QUIET...LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE STARTING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND...BUT WET TO BEGIN. FOR THE START OF THE
PERIOD...RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT
SURFACE FRONT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF +20-23C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH WIDESPREAD 80`S EXPECTED.
IT`LL BE MUGGY TOO WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S WHICH
WILL CREATE AMPLE SURFACE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
WHICH WILL SHIFT INTO THE BTV CWA LATE IN THE DAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS PASSES TO OUR
NORTH...WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW
SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION WHICH IS
MAINTAINED BY THE LATEST ECMWF. GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER PUSHING
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING SO HAVE CONTINUED
ON WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF.

BY LATE SATURDAY TREND WILL BE TOWARDS CLEARER AND DRIER WEATHER AS
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS ZONAL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS HIGH THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND OFF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE
TUESDAY OFFERING A NICE STRETCH OF LATE SUMMER WEATHER. TEMPS RETURN
TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
EXPECTED HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DETERIORATE TO VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CIGS WILL PRIMARILY
REMAIN VFR BUT VSBY WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR AS STORMS PASS.
AFTER 06Z...PRECIP IS EAST OF THE REGION LEAVING GENERALLY CLOUDY
SKIES. CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE VFR AT KMSS/KPBG/KBTV...BUT
MVFR AT KRUT/KSLK/KMPV WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT KRUT UNDER BLOCKED
FLOW. AFTER 12Z...ALL CIGS LIFT TO VFR WITH SCT-BKN DIURNAL
STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WED - 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z SAT - 00Z SUN...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z SUN - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF






000
FXUS61 KBUF 021951
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
351 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
BRING A RETURN TO DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS CROSSING MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC
SOUTHWEST TO TORONTO THEN CLEVELAND. REGIONAL RADARS ARE SHOWING TWO
MAIN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST EXTENDS FROM JUST
EAST OF BUFFALO SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THIS IS A
PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 30-35 KNOT LOW-LEVEL
JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SECOND AND MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ORIENTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT FOCUSED MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO AND NIAGARA FRONTIER. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A WEALTH OF CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
IS LIKELY KEEPING A LID ON WHAT COULD BE STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED
STORM STRUCTURES.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEING FOUND
ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE. THIS WILL MERGE WITH THE SOUTHERN TIER
REGION OF SHOWERS PER NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS REMAINS OUTLINED FROM SPC EXTENDING FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN
TIER ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN THIS AREA
BETTER SURFACE HEATING OCCURRED EARLIER HELPING TO BOOST INSTABILITY.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AT 0-6KM OF 45-55KTS WILL KEEP STRONG GUSTY
WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHILE
LIMITED LAPSE RATES DUE TO CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP A LOW HAIL
THREAT. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7"-1.8" OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL OFFER THE RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM AND MUGGY SIDE
RIGHT INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF LAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS
NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATING SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SURFACE KEEPING LOW STRATUS HANGING
AROUND MUCH OF THE NIGHT SO HAVE WENT MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN
GUIDANCE. THIS MAY INTERACT WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO PRODUCE AREAS
OF FOG. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY ONLY FALL TO AROUND 60 AS THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT IS PACIFIC SOURCED.

ON WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ACROSS NEW YORK WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH MORNING CLOUDS SLOWLY BREAKING UP AND LIFTING FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL
BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. FOR OUR REGION...THIS IS MOST APPARENT IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS INCREASES 850MB TEMPERATURES TO +18C BY 00Z
FRIDAY. THERE MAY SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE DAY TO BE SUNNY WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALSO
DOWNSLOPE A BIT NORTH OF I-90. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP VERY MUCH OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
AND UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE LAKESHORES. ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD HOLD OFF...WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON FRIDAY...WITH A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO LIFT TOWARD HUDSON BAY WHILE AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR
REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON AND AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S. THERE WILL BE A GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. BUT THIS FLOW DOWNSLOPES EAST OF
ROCHESTER...WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 90.

EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY
INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE
LAKES...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. THE
12Z NAM APPEARS TOO MOIST WITH ITS SURFACE DEW POINTS...WITH MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE FORECASTING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH ML CAPES
BUILDING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. EVEN SO THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
STORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND OF THE LAKES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
FRONT...AN UPPER TROUGH JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT MAY BE BROKEN...TRAILING SHOWERS AND
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING STILL SUPPORTS LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR REGION...USHERING IN COOLER AIR
FOR THE WEEKEND. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-WESTERN STATES
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND INTO OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. SOME
GUIDANCE (NOTABLY THE GGEM) STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER SATURDAY...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE DECISIVE
PASSAGE. GIVEN THE TIMEFRAME...CAN STILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER THIS...HIGH PRESSURE GAINS CONTROL
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES ALOFT APPEAR COOL ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WHICH
SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY LIMIT SUNSHINE. THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR FOUND NEAR 20Z AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHWEST ONTARIO
PROVINCE TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SHIFTING EAST ALONG THE FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY HAS KEPT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LIMITED TO JUST THE STRONGER CORES NEAR CYYZ AND
NORTH OF KART. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT TO CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE
KEPT VCTS TO COVER FOR PASSING STORMS BUT THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

ALL PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IT APPEARS THAT IFR LOW
CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY HELPING TO BRING A SLOW LIFTING AND THEN CLEARING TREND
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ON LAKE ERIE WINDS AND WAVES HAVE AVERAGED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE FRONT
ITSELF IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS THE LAKES. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE BRINGING A RETURN TO
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 021951
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
351 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
BRING A RETURN TO DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS CROSSING MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC
SOUTHWEST TO TORONTO THEN CLEVELAND. REGIONAL RADARS ARE SHOWING TWO
MAIN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST EXTENDS FROM JUST
EAST OF BUFFALO SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THIS IS A
PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 30-35 KNOT LOW-LEVEL
JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SECOND AND MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ORIENTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT FOCUSED MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO AND NIAGARA FRONTIER. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A WEALTH OF CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
IS LIKELY KEEPING A LID ON WHAT COULD BE STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED
STORM STRUCTURES.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEING FOUND
ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE. THIS WILL MERGE WITH THE SOUTHERN TIER
REGION OF SHOWERS PER NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS REMAINS OUTLINED FROM SPC EXTENDING FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN
TIER ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN THIS AREA
BETTER SURFACE HEATING OCCURRED EARLIER HELPING TO BOOST INSTABILITY.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AT 0-6KM OF 45-55KTS WILL KEEP STRONG GUSTY
WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHILE
LIMITED LAPSE RATES DUE TO CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP A LOW HAIL
THREAT. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7"-1.8" OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL OFFER THE RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM AND MUGGY SIDE
RIGHT INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF LAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS
NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATING SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SURFACE KEEPING LOW STRATUS HANGING
AROUND MUCH OF THE NIGHT SO HAVE WENT MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN
GUIDANCE. THIS MAY INTERACT WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO PRODUCE AREAS
OF FOG. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY ONLY FALL TO AROUND 60 AS THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT IS PACIFIC SOURCED.

ON WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ACROSS NEW YORK WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH MORNING CLOUDS SLOWLY BREAKING UP AND LIFTING FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL
BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. FOR OUR REGION...THIS IS MOST APPARENT IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS INCREASES 850MB TEMPERATURES TO +18C BY 00Z
FRIDAY. THERE MAY SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE DAY TO BE SUNNY WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALSO
DOWNSLOPE A BIT NORTH OF I-90. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP VERY MUCH OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
AND UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE LAKESHORES. ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD HOLD OFF...WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON FRIDAY...WITH A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO LIFT TOWARD HUDSON BAY WHILE AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR
REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON AND AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S. THERE WILL BE A GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. BUT THIS FLOW DOWNSLOPES EAST OF
ROCHESTER...WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 90.

EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY
INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE
LAKES...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. THE
12Z NAM APPEARS TOO MOIST WITH ITS SURFACE DEW POINTS...WITH MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE FORECASTING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH ML CAPES
BUILDING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. EVEN SO THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
STORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND OF THE LAKES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
FRONT...AN UPPER TROUGH JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT MAY BE BROKEN...TRAILING SHOWERS AND
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING STILL SUPPORTS LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR REGION...USHERING IN COOLER AIR
FOR THE WEEKEND. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-WESTERN STATES
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND INTO OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. SOME
GUIDANCE (NOTABLY THE GGEM) STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER SATURDAY...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE DECISIVE
PASSAGE. GIVEN THE TIMEFRAME...CAN STILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER THIS...HIGH PRESSURE GAINS CONTROL
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES ALOFT APPEAR COOL ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WHICH
SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY LIMIT SUNSHINE. THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR FOUND NEAR 20Z AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHWEST ONTARIO
PROVINCE TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SHIFTING EAST ALONG THE FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY HAS KEPT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LIMITED TO JUST THE STRONGER CORES NEAR CYYZ AND
NORTH OF KART. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT TO CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE
KEPT VCTS TO COVER FOR PASSING STORMS BUT THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

ALL PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IT APPEARS THAT IFR LOW
CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY HELPING TO BRING A SLOW LIFTING AND THEN CLEARING TREND
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ON LAKE ERIE WINDS AND WAVES HAVE AVERAGED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE FRONT
ITSELF IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS THE LAKES. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE BRINGING A RETURN TO
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KALY 021944
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
344 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY JUST EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
HEADING TOWARD THE BERKSHIRES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. MORE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HEADED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. IT IS QUITE WARM ALOFT AND STORMS HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE
TO BUILD IN ENOUGH VERTICAL EXTENT TO BECOME STRONG...AT LEAST IN
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE STORMS SEEM TO STRENGTHEN AS THEY HEAD IN
TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE...CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NY/PA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT STILL
MAKING PROGRESS EAST. SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
MESOSCALE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND
STRENGTHENS IN WESTERN NY/PA...THEN TRACKS THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH THE EVENING. CURRENT ANALYSIS OF INSTABILITY SHOWS SMALL
REGIONS OF STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WHERE SHOWERS HAVE NOT
OCCURRED AND MOST SUNSHINE HAS OCCURRED...BUT INSTABILITY
CONSIDERABLY LESS WHERE SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT RECOVERED AS MUCH.

SO...WILL KEEP WATCHING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IN WESTERN NY/PA...AND IF/WHEN IT DEVELOPS...COULD HAVE
SOME EMBEDDED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET ENERGY STILL PREDICTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PWAT VALUES SUGGEST LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE STANDING WATER
IN LOW LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD EXIT LATER TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE SUNRISE AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT STRONG BEHIND
THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY WE CLEAR AND HOW MUCH OF THE DRYER AIR CAN BUILD IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...

DRYING AND CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH A STEADY
WEST TO NORTH BREEZE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION. SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES FRIDAY AND BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A LITTLE COOLER IN HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WELL
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT FOLLOWED BY DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
END THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT
WOULD FEATURE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY.

WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THANKS IN PART
TO A RETURN FLOW SETUP FROM DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE
EAST...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE
REGION AS DEWPOINTS SURGE BACK INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MUGGY...GENERALLY IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT
FOR UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ACCOMPANYING THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY SHOULD BE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...GENERALLY AROUND 6.0 C/KM WHICH SHOULD ALSO HAMPER THE
POTENCY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...DESPITE BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE
0-6KM LAYER OF 30-40 KNOTS.

REGARDLESS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY LOCALIZED
STRONGER STORMS LOOKS TO BE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER COULD OCCUR TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY AND ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT CUMULUS AND
SCT-BKN CIRRUS. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE PRIOR
TO SUNSET. AN ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REACH THE HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 01Z/WED AND 04Z/WED. THIS FRONTAL BAND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED TO BE ADDED TO
THE TAF LATER. IT HAS BEEN PLACED IN KPOU AT THIS TIME.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SOME MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY LINGER AT
KPSF/KGFL/KALB UNTIL THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES TOWARDS 12Z/WED.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE BTWN 11Z-13Z/WED.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SW AT 5-10 KTS SHIFTING TO THE W/SW
AT 5-12 KTS 00Z-04Z/WED WITH THE FRONT. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FROM W/NW AT 6-12 KTS AFTER 12Z/WED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY WILL BE 35 TO 45 PERCENT AND ON
THURSDAY 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THIS EVENING...SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTH TOMORROW
AT AROUND 15 MPH...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON TO 20 MPH.
WILL WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 15 MPH THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION LATE IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.  AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS IS
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS NORTH
OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND LESSER AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER
SOUTH.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT TIME.
THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM/IRL
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 021840
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
240 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
BRING A RETURN TO DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR TORONTO THEN TO WEST OF CLEVELAND. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWS TWO MAIN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST EXTENDS
FROM JUST SOUTH OF BUFFALO ON TOWARD ERIE PA. THIS IS A PRE-FRONTAL
BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 30-35 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE
SECOND AND MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ORIENTED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEALTH OF CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHICH IS LIKELY KEEPING A LID ON WHAT COULD BE STRONGER AND
MORE ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEING FOUND ALONG THIS
FEATURE. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS OUTLINED FROM SPC
EXTENDING FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN THIS AREA MORE SURFACE HEATING IS PRESENT
WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HELPING TO BOOST INSTABILITY.
ELEVATED 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50KTS WILL KEEP STRONG GUSTY WINDS
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHILE
LIMITED LAPSE RATES DUE TO CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP A LOW HAIL
THREAT. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7"-1.8" OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL OFFER THE RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM AND MUGGY SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...TAKING
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRYING AND CLEARING
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL
BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. FOR OUR REGION...THIS IS MOST APPARENT IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS INCREASES 850MB TEMPERATURES TO +18C BY 00Z
FRIDAY. THERE MAY SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE DAY TO BE SUNNY WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALSO
DOWNSLOPE A BIT NORTH OF I-90. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP VERY MUCH OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
AND UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE LAKESHORES. ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD HOLD OFF...WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON FRIDAY...WITH A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO LIFT TOWARD HUDSON BAY WHILE AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR
REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON AND AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S. THERE WILL BE A GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. BUT THIS FLOW DOWNSLOPES EAST OF
ROCHESTER...WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 90.

EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY
INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE
LAKES...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. THE
12Z NAM APPEARS TOO MOIST WITH ITS SURFACE DEW POINTS...WITH MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE FORECASTING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH ML CAPES
BUILDING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. EVEN SO THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
STORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND OF THE LAKES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
FRONT...AN UPPER TROUGH JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT MAY BE BROKEN...TRAILING SHOWERS AND
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING STILL SUPPORTS LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR REGION...USHERING IN COOLER AIR
FOR THE WEEKEND. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-WESTERN STATES
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND INTO OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. SOME
GUIDANCE (NOTABLY THE GGEM) STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER SATURDAY...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE DECISIVE
PASSAGE. GIVEN THE TIMEFRAME...CAN STILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER THIS...HIGH PRESSURE GAINS CONTROL
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES ALOFT APPEAR COOL ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WHICH
SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY LIMIT SUNSHINE. THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR FOUND AT 18Z AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHWEST ONTARIO
PROVINCE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT TO CROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

ALL PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IT APPEARS THAT IFR LOW
CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY HELPING TO BRING A SLOW LIFTING AND THEN CLEARING TREND
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON LAKE ERIE WINDS AND WAVES WILL AVERAGE NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE ERIE THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT ITSELF WILL ALSO PRODUCE A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...OF WHICH A FEW COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE BRINGING A RETURN TO
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...JM/SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 021840
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
240 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
BRING A RETURN TO DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR TORONTO THEN TO WEST OF CLEVELAND. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWS TWO MAIN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST EXTENDS
FROM JUST SOUTH OF BUFFALO ON TOWARD ERIE PA. THIS IS A PRE-FRONTAL
BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 30-35 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE
SECOND AND MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ORIENTED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEALTH OF CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHICH IS LIKELY KEEPING A LID ON WHAT COULD BE STRONGER AND
MORE ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEING FOUND ALONG THIS
FEATURE. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS OUTLINED FROM SPC
EXTENDING FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN THIS AREA MORE SURFACE HEATING IS PRESENT
WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HELPING TO BOOST INSTABILITY.
ELEVATED 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50KTS WILL KEEP STRONG GUSTY WINDS
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHILE
LIMITED LAPSE RATES DUE TO CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP A LOW HAIL
THREAT. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7"-1.8" OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL OFFER THE RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM AND MUGGY SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...TAKING
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRYING AND CLEARING
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL
BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. FOR OUR REGION...THIS IS MOST APPARENT IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS INCREASES 850MB TEMPERATURES TO +18C BY 00Z
FRIDAY. THERE MAY SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE DAY TO BE SUNNY WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALSO
DOWNSLOPE A BIT NORTH OF I-90. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP VERY MUCH OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
AND UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE LAKESHORES. ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD HOLD OFF...WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON FRIDAY...WITH A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO LIFT TOWARD HUDSON BAY WHILE AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR
REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON AND AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S. THERE WILL BE A GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. BUT THIS FLOW DOWNSLOPES EAST OF
ROCHESTER...WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 90.

EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY
INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE
LAKES...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. THE
12Z NAM APPEARS TOO MOIST WITH ITS SURFACE DEW POINTS...WITH MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE FORECASTING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH ML CAPES
BUILDING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. EVEN SO THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
STORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND OF THE LAKES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
FRONT...AN UPPER TROUGH JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT MAY BE BROKEN...TRAILING SHOWERS AND
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING STILL SUPPORTS LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR REGION...USHERING IN COOLER AIR
FOR THE WEEKEND. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-WESTERN STATES
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND INTO OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. SOME
GUIDANCE (NOTABLY THE GGEM) STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER SATURDAY...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE DECISIVE
PASSAGE. GIVEN THE TIMEFRAME...CAN STILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER THIS...HIGH PRESSURE GAINS CONTROL
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES ALOFT APPEAR COOL ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WHICH
SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY LIMIT SUNSHINE. THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR FOUND AT 18Z AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHWEST ONTARIO
PROVINCE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT TO CROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

ALL PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IT APPEARS THAT IFR LOW
CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY HELPING TO BRING A SLOW LIFTING AND THEN CLEARING TREND
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON LAKE ERIE WINDS AND WAVES WILL AVERAGE NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE ERIE THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT ITSELF WILL ALSO PRODUCE A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...OF WHICH A FEW COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE BRINGING A RETURN TO
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...JM/SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 021840
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
240 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
BRING A RETURN TO DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR TORONTO THEN TO WEST OF CLEVELAND. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWS TWO MAIN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST EXTENDS
FROM JUST SOUTH OF BUFFALO ON TOWARD ERIE PA. THIS IS A PRE-FRONTAL
BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 30-35 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE
SECOND AND MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ORIENTED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEALTH OF CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHICH IS LIKELY KEEPING A LID ON WHAT COULD BE STRONGER AND
MORE ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEING FOUND ALONG THIS
FEATURE. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS OUTLINED FROM SPC
EXTENDING FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN THIS AREA MORE SURFACE HEATING IS PRESENT
WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HELPING TO BOOST INSTABILITY.
ELEVATED 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50KTS WILL KEEP STRONG GUSTY WINDS
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHILE
LIMITED LAPSE RATES DUE TO CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP A LOW HAIL
THREAT. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7"-1.8" OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL OFFER THE RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM AND MUGGY SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...TAKING
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRYING AND CLEARING
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL
BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. FOR OUR REGION...THIS IS MOST APPARENT IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS INCREASES 850MB TEMPERATURES TO +18C BY 00Z
FRIDAY. THERE MAY SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE DAY TO BE SUNNY WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALSO
DOWNSLOPE A BIT NORTH OF I-90. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP VERY MUCH OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
AND UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE LAKESHORES. ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD HOLD OFF...WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON FRIDAY...WITH A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO LIFT TOWARD HUDSON BAY WHILE AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR
REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON AND AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S. THERE WILL BE A GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. BUT THIS FLOW DOWNSLOPES EAST OF
ROCHESTER...WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 90.

EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY
INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE
LAKES...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. THE
12Z NAM APPEARS TOO MOIST WITH ITS SURFACE DEW POINTS...WITH MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE FORECASTING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH ML CAPES
BUILDING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. EVEN SO THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
STORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND OF THE LAKES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
FRONT...AN UPPER TROUGH JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT MAY BE BROKEN...TRAILING SHOWERS AND
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING STILL SUPPORTS LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR REGION...USHERING IN COOLER AIR
FOR THE WEEKEND. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-WESTERN STATES
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND INTO OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. SOME
GUIDANCE (NOTABLY THE GGEM) STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER SATURDAY...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE DECISIVE
PASSAGE. GIVEN THE TIMEFRAME...CAN STILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER THIS...HIGH PRESSURE GAINS CONTROL
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES ALOFT APPEAR COOL ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WHICH
SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY LIMIT SUNSHINE. THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR FOUND AT 18Z AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHWEST ONTARIO
PROVINCE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT TO CROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

ALL PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IT APPEARS THAT IFR LOW
CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY HELPING TO BRING A SLOW LIFTING AND THEN CLEARING TREND
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON LAKE ERIE WINDS AND WAVES WILL AVERAGE NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE ERIE THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT ITSELF WILL ALSO PRODUCE A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...OF WHICH A FEW COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE BRINGING A RETURN TO
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...JM/SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 021840
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
240 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
BRING A RETURN TO DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR TORONTO THEN TO WEST OF CLEVELAND. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWS TWO MAIN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST EXTENDS
FROM JUST SOUTH OF BUFFALO ON TOWARD ERIE PA. THIS IS A PRE-FRONTAL
BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 30-35 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE
SECOND AND MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ORIENTED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEALTH OF CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHICH IS LIKELY KEEPING A LID ON WHAT COULD BE STRONGER AND
MORE ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEING FOUND ALONG THIS
FEATURE. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS OUTLINED FROM SPC
EXTENDING FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN THIS AREA MORE SURFACE HEATING IS PRESENT
WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HELPING TO BOOST INSTABILITY.
ELEVATED 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50KTS WILL KEEP STRONG GUSTY WINDS
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHILE
LIMITED LAPSE RATES DUE TO CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP A LOW HAIL
THREAT. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7"-1.8" OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL OFFER THE RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM AND MUGGY SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...TAKING
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRYING AND CLEARING
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL
BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. FOR OUR REGION...THIS IS MOST APPARENT IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS INCREASES 850MB TEMPERATURES TO +18C BY 00Z
FRIDAY. THERE MAY SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE DAY TO BE SUNNY WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALSO
DOWNSLOPE A BIT NORTH OF I-90. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP VERY MUCH OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
AND UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE LAKESHORES. ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD HOLD OFF...WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON FRIDAY...WITH A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO LIFT TOWARD HUDSON BAY WHILE AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR
REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON AND AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S. THERE WILL BE A GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. BUT THIS FLOW DOWNSLOPES EAST OF
ROCHESTER...WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 90.

EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY
INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE
LAKES...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. THE
12Z NAM APPEARS TOO MOIST WITH ITS SURFACE DEW POINTS...WITH MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE FORECASTING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH ML CAPES
BUILDING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. EVEN SO THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
STORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND OF THE LAKES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
FRONT...AN UPPER TROUGH JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT MAY BE BROKEN...TRAILING SHOWERS AND
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING STILL SUPPORTS LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR REGION...USHERING IN COOLER AIR
FOR THE WEEKEND. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-WESTERN STATES
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND INTO OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. SOME
GUIDANCE (NOTABLY THE GGEM) STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER SATURDAY...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE DECISIVE
PASSAGE. GIVEN THE TIMEFRAME...CAN STILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER THIS...HIGH PRESSURE GAINS CONTROL
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES ALOFT APPEAR COOL ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WHICH
SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY LIMIT SUNSHINE. THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR FOUND AT 18Z AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHWEST ONTARIO
PROVINCE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT TO CROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

ALL PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IT APPEARS THAT IFR LOW
CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY HELPING TO BRING A SLOW LIFTING AND THEN CLEARING TREND
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON LAKE ERIE WINDS AND WAVES WILL AVERAGE NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE ERIE THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT ITSELF WILL ALSO PRODUCE A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...OF WHICH A FEW COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE BRINGING A RETURN TO
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...JM/SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 021826
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
226 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
BRING A RETURN TO DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR TORONTO THEN TO WEST OF CLEVELAND. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWS TWO MAIN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST EXTENDS
FROM JUST SOUTH OF BUFFALO ON TOWARD ERIE PA. THIS IS A PRE-FRONTAL
BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 30-35 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE
SECOND AND MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ORIENTED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEALTH OF CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHICH IS LIKELY KEEPING A LID ON WHAT COULD BE STRONGER AND
MORE ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEING FOUND ALONG THIS
FEATURE. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS OUTLINED FROM SPC
EXTENDING FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN THIS AREA MORE SURFACE HEATING IS PRESENT
WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HELPING TO BOOST INSTABILITY.
ELEVATED 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50KTS WILL KEEP STRONG GUSTY WINDS
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHILE
LIMITED LAPSE RATES DUE TO CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP A LOW HAIL
THREAT. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7"-1.8" OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL OFFER THE RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM AND MUGGY SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...TAKING
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRYING AND CLEARING
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED INTO
EASTERN QUEBEC WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE INCREASE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
MORNING. DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO ALONG A
CONVERGENCE ZONE RUNNING FROM THE NIAGARA PENINSULA TO NEAR
ROCHESTER. THIS MAY YIELD A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN IN THESE AREAS FOR
THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +12C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND
80 AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS
WILL PROVIDE MORE DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE
TIME. EXPECT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COOL OR DRY. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 ON THE LAKE PLAINS TO AROUND 50 IN THE COOLEST
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE THICKER CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO +14C TO +16C
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS
UP IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES.
ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BRING SOME
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. A WARMER AIRMASS AND A MIXING BREEZE
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE WITH UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG
HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE VERY CHANGEABLE WITH ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS
OF THE YEAR ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE
WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO JAMES BAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL CAPTURE AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ WITH ORIGINS
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS EML PLUME WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS
TO SOAR TO AROUND +18C TO +19C. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S IN MANY AREAS...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS LIKELY TO BE
IN THE GENESEE VALLEY. THE EML PLUME WILL PROVIDE A STRONG CAP IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND SHOULD HOLD CONVECTION AT BAY UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT AND TROUGH APPROACH AND
AID IN ERODING THE MID LEVEL CAP.

FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE ACTIVE WITH A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS QUEBEC...ALTHOUGH A
TRAILING RIBBON OF STRONGER FLOW IN THE 900-700MB LAYER WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO ORGANIZE A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF ON TIMING...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO LOW LIKELY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW...WITH THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WOULD HOLD
UP THE FRONT SOMEWHAT AND ALSO FORCE IT TO BECOME MORE ANABATIC IN
NATURE WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
GFS HAS A FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SATURDAY DRY. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH A HEDGE TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. IN EITHER CASE IT WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTHEAST OF
THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THEIR COOLEST ON SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
60S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. AIRMASS
MODERATION WILL BEGIN BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR FOUND AT 18Z AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHWEST ONTARIO
PROVINCE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT TO CROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

ALL PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IT APPEARS THAT IFR LOW
CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY HELPING TO BRING A SLOW LIFTING AND THEN CLEARING TREND
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON LAKE ERIE WINDS AND WAVES WILL AVERAGE NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE ERIE THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT ITSELF WILL ALSO PRODUCE A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...OF WHICH A FEW COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE BRINGING A RETURN TO
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...JM/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 021826
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
226 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
BRING A RETURN TO DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR TORONTO THEN TO WEST OF CLEVELAND. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWS TWO MAIN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST EXTENDS
FROM JUST SOUTH OF BUFFALO ON TOWARD ERIE PA. THIS IS A PRE-FRONTAL
BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 30-35 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE
SECOND AND MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ORIENTED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEALTH OF CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHICH IS LIKELY KEEPING A LID ON WHAT COULD BE STRONGER AND
MORE ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEING FOUND ALONG THIS
FEATURE. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS OUTLINED FROM SPC
EXTENDING FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN THIS AREA MORE SURFACE HEATING IS PRESENT
WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HELPING TO BOOST INSTABILITY.
ELEVATED 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50KTS WILL KEEP STRONG GUSTY WINDS
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHILE
LIMITED LAPSE RATES DUE TO CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP A LOW HAIL
THREAT. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7"-1.8" OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL OFFER THE RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM AND MUGGY SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...TAKING
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRYING AND CLEARING
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED INTO
EASTERN QUEBEC WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE INCREASE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
MORNING. DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO ALONG A
CONVERGENCE ZONE RUNNING FROM THE NIAGARA PENINSULA TO NEAR
ROCHESTER. THIS MAY YIELD A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN IN THESE AREAS FOR
THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +12C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND
80 AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS
WILL PROVIDE MORE DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE
TIME. EXPECT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COOL OR DRY. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 ON THE LAKE PLAINS TO AROUND 50 IN THE COOLEST
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE THICKER CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO +14C TO +16C
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS
UP IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES.
ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BRING SOME
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. A WARMER AIRMASS AND A MIXING BREEZE
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE WITH UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG
HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE VERY CHANGEABLE WITH ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS
OF THE YEAR ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE
WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO JAMES BAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL CAPTURE AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ WITH ORIGINS
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS EML PLUME WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS
TO SOAR TO AROUND +18C TO +19C. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S IN MANY AREAS...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS LIKELY TO BE
IN THE GENESEE VALLEY. THE EML PLUME WILL PROVIDE A STRONG CAP IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND SHOULD HOLD CONVECTION AT BAY UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT AND TROUGH APPROACH AND
AID IN ERODING THE MID LEVEL CAP.

FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE ACTIVE WITH A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS QUEBEC...ALTHOUGH A
TRAILING RIBBON OF STRONGER FLOW IN THE 900-700MB LAYER WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO ORGANIZE A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF ON TIMING...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO LOW LIKELY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW...WITH THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WOULD HOLD
UP THE FRONT SOMEWHAT AND ALSO FORCE IT TO BECOME MORE ANABATIC IN
NATURE WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
GFS HAS A FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SATURDAY DRY. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH A HEDGE TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. IN EITHER CASE IT WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTHEAST OF
THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THEIR COOLEST ON SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
60S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. AIRMASS
MODERATION WILL BEGIN BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR FOUND AT 18Z AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHWEST ONTARIO
PROVINCE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT TO CROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

ALL PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IT APPEARS THAT IFR LOW
CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY HELPING TO BRING A SLOW LIFTING AND THEN CLEARING TREND
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON LAKE ERIE WINDS AND WAVES WILL AVERAGE NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE ERIE THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT ITSELF WILL ALSO PRODUCE A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...OF WHICH A FEW COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE BRINGING A RETURN TO
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...JM/SMITH









000
FXUS61 KALY 021803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
203 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXITING...BUT MORE ISOLATED
SHOWERS TRACKING INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND HEADING TOWARD THE
HELDERBERGS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SPREADING EAST NOW AND EVEN
THOUGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE IN SOME AREAS...
SHOULD RISE TO NEAR FORECASTED LEVELS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING ARE IN THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY WHERE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO FORM AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES...RAIN CHANCES AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...UNTIL NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND
CAN REFINE FORECAST LATER BASED ON NEWER DATA. HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RAIN SHOULD END TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT CUMULUS AND
SCT-BKN CIRRUS. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE PRIOR
TO SUNSET. AN ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REACH THE HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 01Z/WED AND 04Z/WED. THIS FRONTAL BAND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED TO BE ADDED TO
THE TAF LATER. IT HAS BEEN PLACED IN KPOU AT THIS TIME.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SOME MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY LINGER AT
KPSF/KGFL/KALB UNTIL THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES TOWARDS 12Z/WED.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE BTWN 11Z-13Z/WED.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SW AT 5-10 KTS SHIFTING TO THE W/SW
AT 5-12 KTS 00Z-04Z/WED WITH THE FRONT. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FROM W/NW AT 6-12 KTS AFTER 12Z/WED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS







000
FXUS61 KOKX 021759
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
159 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG...BUT A WEAKLY SHEARED/CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. LFC/LCL VALUES FAIRLY HIGH AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
TRIGGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING...MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS INLAND OR ALONG THE THERMAL TROF AND SEABREEZES.

TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH A FEW 90S AROUND
THE NYC METRO. ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREE RISE IS EXPECTED AWAY
FROM THE COAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE 90S...NEAR 100
FOR NYC METRO. DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MAKING FOR
VERY HUMID CONDITIONS. HEAT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 80-90 KT 300 HPA
JET...PASSING OF STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL JETS IN THE
EVENING...AND THE AREA UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS...COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 2 INCHES...THEN HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM THIS EVENING. REFER TO HYDROLOGY
SECTION OF THE AFD FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

HOWEVER...WILL BE WORKING AGAINST DIMINISH CAPE WITH THE LOSS OF
SOLAR HEATING...WITH BEST DYNAMICS PASSING TO THE N...BELIEVE THAT
ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...AND IT WAS NOT ALL THAT HIGH TO BEGIN WITH.

700-500 HPA SHORTWAVES LIFTS TO THE N/E OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR THINGS TO DRY OUT
LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVES.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM
850-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS SUNNY AND DRY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT HUMIDITY LEVELS TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING OFFSHORE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE
MODELS WANT TO LINGER SOME PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...DO NOT WANT TO RULE THIS OUT...SO WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED RIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS.  TEMPERATURES THEN FALL
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR. ISO/SCT TSTMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT ANY
TIME...BUT MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR ROUGHLY 02-05Z NEAR THE CITY
TERMINALS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT IN TSRA
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS...WILL LEAVE IN VCSH DURING THIS PERIOD FOR NOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT INTO EARLY EVENING.
ANY AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM POTENTIAL.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE COULD POTENTIALLY SHIFT WINDS TO
THE SOUTH AROUND 21Z. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS 17-20 KT INTO EARLY EVENING. ANY
AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM POTENTIAL.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM
POTENTIAL.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM
POTENTIAL.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM
POTENTIAL.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH FRI...
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...SUB-VFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT ON ANZ-350
TONIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND RESIDUAL 1-2 FT SWELLS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
NOT ALL THAT HIGH...SO DO NOT REFLECT IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SEAS SHOULD COME DOWN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SPOTTY SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY OVER AREAS N/W OF NYC...COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LESS THAN
0.2 INCHES OF BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KOKX 021759
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
159 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG...BUT A WEAKLY SHEARED/CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. LFC/LCL VALUES FAIRLY HIGH AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
TRIGGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING...MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS INLAND OR ALONG THE THERMAL TROF AND SEABREEZES.

TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH A FEW 90S AROUND
THE NYC METRO. ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREE RISE IS EXPECTED AWAY
FROM THE COAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE 90S...NEAR 100
FOR NYC METRO. DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MAKING FOR
VERY HUMID CONDITIONS. HEAT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 80-90 KT 300 HPA
JET...PASSING OF STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL JETS IN THE
EVENING...AND THE AREA UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS...COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 2 INCHES...THEN HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM THIS EVENING. REFER TO HYDROLOGY
SECTION OF THE AFD FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

HOWEVER...WILL BE WORKING AGAINST DIMINISH CAPE WITH THE LOSS OF
SOLAR HEATING...WITH BEST DYNAMICS PASSING TO THE N...BELIEVE THAT
ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...AND IT WAS NOT ALL THAT HIGH TO BEGIN WITH.

700-500 HPA SHORTWAVES LIFTS TO THE N/E OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR THINGS TO DRY OUT
LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVES.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM
850-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS SUNNY AND DRY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT HUMIDITY LEVELS TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING OFFSHORE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE
MODELS WANT TO LINGER SOME PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...DO NOT WANT TO RULE THIS OUT...SO WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED RIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS.  TEMPERATURES THEN FALL
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR. ISO/SCT TSTMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT ANY
TIME...BUT MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR ROUGHLY 02-05Z NEAR THE CITY
TERMINALS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT IN TSRA
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS...WILL LEAVE IN VCSH DURING THIS PERIOD FOR NOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT INTO EARLY EVENING.
ANY AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM POTENTIAL.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE COULD POTENTIALLY SHIFT WINDS TO
THE SOUTH AROUND 21Z. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS 17-20 KT INTO EARLY EVENING. ANY
AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM POTENTIAL.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM
POTENTIAL.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM
POTENTIAL.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM
POTENTIAL.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH FRI...
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...SUB-VFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT ON ANZ-350
TONIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND RESIDUAL 1-2 FT SWELLS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
NOT ALL THAT HIGH...SO DO NOT REFLECT IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SEAS SHOULD COME DOWN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SPOTTY SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY OVER AREAS N/W OF NYC...COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LESS THAN
0.2 INCHES OF BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KBGM 021758
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
158 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DRY WARM WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AND 1 PM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES. FIRST CHSOWERS LINGERING OVER NE CWA SO UPPED POPS
THIS MORNING. NOW TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAX FORECAST SO UPPED
TEMPS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW MORE HEATING TO OCCUR BEFORE
SHOWERS COME IN AFTER 3 PM IN NW AND CLOSER TO 8 PM IN SE.

415 AM UPDATE...

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. RIGHT NOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR
ELMIRA, AND A FEW MORE OVER THE TUG HILL GIVE US A GOOD IDEA OF
OUR WEATHER THROUGH NOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME BUT MOST WILL REMAIN
DRY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF DETROIT WILL BE THE
TRIGGER FOR A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
18Z.

FOLLOWING THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC/ARW/NMM FOR TIMING, A LINE OR
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FRINGES OF
OUR CWA TOWARD 18Z. IT APPEARS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS FOR
THE BULK OF OUR AREA WILL COME CLOSER TO 21Z AND SHOULD IMPACT A
LINE FROM NEAR UTICA/NORWICH/BINGHAMTON/TOWANDA BACK WESTWARD
THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES. AFTER 21Z THE LINE SHOULD SLOWLY
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH NEPA BY 03Z. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE
MOST OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER INCLUDE GOOD MID LEVEL SHEAR (0-6 KM BULK SHEARS 45+ KTS),
WHICH WOULD FAVOR BROKEN OR SHORT LINES OF CONVECTION MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WHICH IS PLAYING OUT IN MINIMAL MLCAPES. THE
NAM SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH MLCAPES ABOVE 1,000 J/KG.
MEANWHILE THE RUC/ARW/EURO/GFS ALL SHOW VALUES CLOSER TO 500 J/KG.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO AND GRIDS WITH
GUSTY WIND WORDING, TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. WE WILL CAREFULLY
WATCH THE MESO ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A GREATER CONCERN. LASTLY, WHILE THE STORMS
WILL BE PROGRESSIVE TODAY, PWATS DO BRIEFLY CLIMB TOWARD 2"! WITH
THAT IN MIND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. NO PROBLEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED ASIDE FROM ANY STORMS MOVING OVER URBAN AREAS, WHERE
RAINFALL RATES CAN ALWAYS POSE A PROBLEM WHEN THEY GO ABOVE 1.5
INCHES IN AN HOUR.

CONVECTION DIES DOWN BY 03Z, WITH DRIER WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST AND KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET DURING
THE PERIOD. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE WARM AIR, AS A BUBBLE OF
VERY WARM AIR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SPREADS EAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE AFTER A BRIEF COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WEDNESDAY, WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPS NEAR 80, WE WILL REBOUND
WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN HOTTER AIR
IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. READ MORE BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRI WILL BE WARM AND HUMID AS A WSW FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RDG
BRINGS WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FNT APRCHS FOR SAT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND TRWS.
HIPRES BLDS BACK IN WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR THRU THE END OF THE
PD. SOME HINT FROM THE MODELS THAT THE FNT COULD STALL OUT OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC BUT IT LOOKS FOR NOW LIKE THE FNT WILL STAY WELL
SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABV NRML FOR THE
PD...XCPT FOR MON WHEN THEY WILL BE NEAR NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

COLD FNT APRCHG THE AREA THIS AFTN TRIGGERING CONV OVER SW
ONTARIO. MODELS IN RSNBL AGREEMENT FOR THE TIMING OF THE FNT AND
BEST CHANCE OF TRWS WITH RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 21Z OND 02Z OVER THE
AREA. XPCT GRADUAL CLRG BHD THE FNT WITH VERY DRY AIR MVG IN.
XCPTN WILL BE AT ELM ONCE AGAIN AS THE ATMOS DECPLS AND WET GND
HELPS DVLP DENSE FOG AND VLIFR FOR SVRL HRS BEFORE DAWN. VFR
RETURNS TO ELM AND CONTS ELSWHERE THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/TAC
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/TAC
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 021733
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS,
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON REFRESH FEATURES SLIGHT
UPWARD MODIFICATIONS IN TEMPERATURES (ALREADY 87F HERE AT BTV) AND
A SLIGHT FINE TUNING OF THE POP/WEATHER EVOLUTION FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS. OTHERWISE THE OVERALL SCENARIO FOR A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ROLL FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA IS STILL UNCHANGED.

LAPS SHOWS DECENT AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS PUSHING 70F IN MANY AREAS. CAPE
VALUES UP AROUND 1500 J/KG. FROM THE LOOK OF THE CLOUDS AND
RELATIVE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY ON RADAR OVER NORTHERN NY
AND MOST OF VERMONT, IT APPEARS THERE IS STILL A WEAK CAP AND DRY
AIR ALOFT (THAT SHOWED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS).

HOWEVER, LOOKING FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER ONTARIO SHOWS WHAT IS
HEADING THIS WAY.

6KM LOCAL WRF MODEL AND 15Z HRRR ARE PRETTY CLOSE IN THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION, AND BOTH SEEM REASONABLE. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THEIR
OUTPUT FOR POPULATING THE GRIDS. IF ANYTHING, THEY (AS TYPICAL)
MIGHT BE AN HOUR OR TWO TOO SLOW IN TIMING.

WE SHOULD SEE THE STORMS TO THE WEST CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO A
SEMI-CONTINUOUS LINE. THESE STORMS SHOULD REACH THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY ABOUT 20Z, THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ABOUT 22-23Z AND THEN INTO
EASTERN VERMONT BY 01Z. THINK PRIMARY THREAT REMAINS GUSTY WINDS
(THANKS TO MODERATE WINDS ALOFT AND THE DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS
WHICH COULD ENHANCE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL) ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN
(GUIDANCE SUGGEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2". SHOULD
NOT BE AN OVER THE TOP SEVERE WEATHER DAY, BUT IT WILL BE A BIT
BUSY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY EXITING MOST OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY DURING THIS PERIOD AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND NOT THE NORTHWEST...COLDER AIR WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. SO EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE
COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA PREDOMINANTLY UNDER
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EASTERN US RIDGE NOSING INTO NEW
ENGLAND EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND BROAD TROUGH ESTABLISHED FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECT FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SURFACE FRONT.
BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS HIT THE UPPER TEENS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
VERY WARM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS...ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY UP A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE.

500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
US TIER STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH BEST UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW
PASSING TO NORTH...SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWS AND BECOMES ORIENTED
MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS
MOVING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE ECMWF HANGS IT UP IN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. HEDGED
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEPT CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY. RIGHT
NOW SATURDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER...
COINCIDING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES
DO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND LOWER HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DETERIORATE TO VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CIGS WILL PRIMARILY
REMAIN VFR BUT VSBY WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR AS STORMS PASS.
AFTER 06Z...PRECIP IS EAST OF THE REGION LEAVING GENERALLY CLOUDY
SKIES. CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE VFR AT KMSS/KPBG/KBTV...BUT
MVFR AT KRUT/KSLK/KMPV WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT KRUT UNDER BLOCKED
FLOW. AFTER 12Z...ALL CIGS LIFT TO VFR WITH SCT-BKN DIURNAL
STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WED - 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z SAT - 00Z SUN...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z SUN - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF






000
FXUS61 KBTV 021733
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS,
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON REFRESH FEATURES SLIGHT
UPWARD MODIFICATIONS IN TEMPERATURES (ALREADY 87F HERE AT BTV) AND
A SLIGHT FINE TUNING OF THE POP/WEATHER EVOLUTION FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS. OTHERWISE THE OVERALL SCENARIO FOR A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ROLL FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA IS STILL UNCHANGED.

LAPS SHOWS DECENT AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS PUSHING 70F IN MANY AREAS. CAPE
VALUES UP AROUND 1500 J/KG. FROM THE LOOK OF THE CLOUDS AND
RELATIVE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY ON RADAR OVER NORTHERN NY
AND MOST OF VERMONT, IT APPEARS THERE IS STILL A WEAK CAP AND DRY
AIR ALOFT (THAT SHOWED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS).

HOWEVER, LOOKING FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER ONTARIO SHOWS WHAT IS
HEADING THIS WAY.

6KM LOCAL WRF MODEL AND 15Z HRRR ARE PRETTY CLOSE IN THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION, AND BOTH SEEM REASONABLE. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THEIR
OUTPUT FOR POPULATING THE GRIDS. IF ANYTHING, THEY (AS TYPICAL)
MIGHT BE AN HOUR OR TWO TOO SLOW IN TIMING.

WE SHOULD SEE THE STORMS TO THE WEST CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO A
SEMI-CONTINUOUS LINE. THESE STORMS SHOULD REACH THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY ABOUT 20Z, THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ABOUT 22-23Z AND THEN INTO
EASTERN VERMONT BY 01Z. THINK PRIMARY THREAT REMAINS GUSTY WINDS
(THANKS TO MODERATE WINDS ALOFT AND THE DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS
WHICH COULD ENHANCE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL) ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN
(GUIDANCE SUGGEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2". SHOULD
NOT BE AN OVER THE TOP SEVERE WEATHER DAY, BUT IT WILL BE A BIT
BUSY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY EXITING MOST OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY DURING THIS PERIOD AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND NOT THE NORTHWEST...COLDER AIR WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. SO EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE
COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA PREDOMINANTLY UNDER
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EASTERN US RIDGE NOSING INTO NEW
ENGLAND EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND BROAD TROUGH ESTABLISHED FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECT FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SURFACE FRONT.
BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS HIT THE UPPER TEENS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
VERY WARM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS...ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY UP A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE.

500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
US TIER STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH BEST UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW
PASSING TO NORTH...SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWS AND BECOMES ORIENTED
MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS
MOVING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE ECMWF HANGS IT UP IN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. HEDGED
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEPT CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY. RIGHT
NOW SATURDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER...
COINCIDING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES
DO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND LOWER HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DETERIORATE TO VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CIGS WILL PRIMARILY
REMAIN VFR BUT VSBY WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR AS STORMS PASS.
AFTER 06Z...PRECIP IS EAST OF THE REGION LEAVING GENERALLY CLOUDY
SKIES. CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE VFR AT KMSS/KPBG/KBTV...BUT
MVFR AT KRUT/KSLK/KMPV WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT KRUT UNDER BLOCKED
FLOW. AFTER 12Z...ALL CIGS LIFT TO VFR WITH SCT-BKN DIURNAL
STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WED - 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z SAT - 00Z SUN...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z SUN - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF






000
FXUS61 KBTV 021733
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS,
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON REFRESH FEATURES SLIGHT
UPWARD MODIFICATIONS IN TEMPERATURES (ALREADY 87F HERE AT BTV) AND
A SLIGHT FINE TUNING OF THE POP/WEATHER EVOLUTION FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS. OTHERWISE THE OVERALL SCENARIO FOR A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ROLL FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA IS STILL UNCHANGED.

LAPS SHOWS DECENT AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS PUSHING 70F IN MANY AREAS. CAPE
VALUES UP AROUND 1500 J/KG. FROM THE LOOK OF THE CLOUDS AND
RELATIVE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY ON RADAR OVER NORTHERN NY
AND MOST OF VERMONT, IT APPEARS THERE IS STILL A WEAK CAP AND DRY
AIR ALOFT (THAT SHOWED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS).

HOWEVER, LOOKING FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER ONTARIO SHOWS WHAT IS
HEADING THIS WAY.

6KM LOCAL WRF MODEL AND 15Z HRRR ARE PRETTY CLOSE IN THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION, AND BOTH SEEM REASONABLE. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THEIR
OUTPUT FOR POPULATING THE GRIDS. IF ANYTHING, THEY (AS TYPICAL)
MIGHT BE AN HOUR OR TWO TOO SLOW IN TIMING.

WE SHOULD SEE THE STORMS TO THE WEST CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO A
SEMI-CONTINUOUS LINE. THESE STORMS SHOULD REACH THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY ABOUT 20Z, THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ABOUT 22-23Z AND THEN INTO
EASTERN VERMONT BY 01Z. THINK PRIMARY THREAT REMAINS GUSTY WINDS
(THANKS TO MODERATE WINDS ALOFT AND THE DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS
WHICH COULD ENHANCE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL) ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN
(GUIDANCE SUGGEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2". SHOULD
NOT BE AN OVER THE TOP SEVERE WEATHER DAY, BUT IT WILL BE A BIT
BUSY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY EXITING MOST OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY DURING THIS PERIOD AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND NOT THE NORTHWEST...COLDER AIR WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. SO EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE
COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA PREDOMINANTLY UNDER
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EASTERN US RIDGE NOSING INTO NEW
ENGLAND EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND BROAD TROUGH ESTABLISHED FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECT FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SURFACE FRONT.
BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS HIT THE UPPER TEENS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
VERY WARM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS...ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY UP A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE.

500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
US TIER STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH BEST UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW
PASSING TO NORTH...SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWS AND BECOMES ORIENTED
MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS
MOVING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE ECMWF HANGS IT UP IN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. HEDGED
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEPT CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY. RIGHT
NOW SATURDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER...
COINCIDING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES
DO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND LOWER HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DETERIORATE TO VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CIGS WILL PRIMARILY
REMAIN VFR BUT VSBY WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR AS STORMS PASS.
AFTER 06Z...PRECIP IS EAST OF THE REGION LEAVING GENERALLY CLOUDY
SKIES. CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE VFR AT KMSS/KPBG/KBTV...BUT
MVFR AT KRUT/KSLK/KMPV WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT KRUT UNDER BLOCKED
FLOW. AFTER 12Z...ALL CIGS LIFT TO VFR WITH SCT-BKN DIURNAL
STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WED - 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z SAT - 00Z SUN...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z SUN - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF






000
FXUS61 KBTV 021733
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS,
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON REFRESH FEATURES SLIGHT
UPWARD MODIFICATIONS IN TEMPERATURES (ALREADY 87F HERE AT BTV) AND
A SLIGHT FINE TUNING OF THE POP/WEATHER EVOLUTION FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS. OTHERWISE THE OVERALL SCENARIO FOR A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ROLL FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA IS STILL UNCHANGED.

LAPS SHOWS DECENT AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS PUSHING 70F IN MANY AREAS. CAPE
VALUES UP AROUND 1500 J/KG. FROM THE LOOK OF THE CLOUDS AND
RELATIVE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY ON RADAR OVER NORTHERN NY
AND MOST OF VERMONT, IT APPEARS THERE IS STILL A WEAK CAP AND DRY
AIR ALOFT (THAT SHOWED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS).

HOWEVER, LOOKING FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER ONTARIO SHOWS WHAT IS
HEADING THIS WAY.

6KM LOCAL WRF MODEL AND 15Z HRRR ARE PRETTY CLOSE IN THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION, AND BOTH SEEM REASONABLE. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THEIR
OUTPUT FOR POPULATING THE GRIDS. IF ANYTHING, THEY (AS TYPICAL)
MIGHT BE AN HOUR OR TWO TOO SLOW IN TIMING.

WE SHOULD SEE THE STORMS TO THE WEST CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO A
SEMI-CONTINUOUS LINE. THESE STORMS SHOULD REACH THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY ABOUT 20Z, THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ABOUT 22-23Z AND THEN INTO
EASTERN VERMONT BY 01Z. THINK PRIMARY THREAT REMAINS GUSTY WINDS
(THANKS TO MODERATE WINDS ALOFT AND THE DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS
WHICH COULD ENHANCE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL) ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN
(GUIDANCE SUGGEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2". SHOULD
NOT BE AN OVER THE TOP SEVERE WEATHER DAY, BUT IT WILL BE A BIT
BUSY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY EXITING MOST OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY DURING THIS PERIOD AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND NOT THE NORTHWEST...COLDER AIR WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. SO EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE
COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA PREDOMINANTLY UNDER
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EASTERN US RIDGE NOSING INTO NEW
ENGLAND EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND BROAD TROUGH ESTABLISHED FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECT FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SURFACE FRONT.
BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS HIT THE UPPER TEENS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
VERY WARM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS...ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY UP A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE.

500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
US TIER STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH BEST UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW
PASSING TO NORTH...SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWS AND BECOMES ORIENTED
MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS
MOVING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE ECMWF HANGS IT UP IN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. HEDGED
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEPT CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY. RIGHT
NOW SATURDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER...
COINCIDING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES
DO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND LOWER HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DETERIORATE TO VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CIGS WILL PRIMARILY
REMAIN VFR BUT VSBY WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR AS STORMS PASS.
AFTER 06Z...PRECIP IS EAST OF THE REGION LEAVING GENERALLY CLOUDY
SKIES. CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE VFR AT KMSS/KPBG/KBTV...BUT
MVFR AT KRUT/KSLK/KMPV WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT KRUT UNDER BLOCKED
FLOW. AFTER 12Z...ALL CIGS LIFT TO VFR WITH SCT-BKN DIURNAL
STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WED - 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z SAT - 00Z SUN...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z SUN - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF






000
FXUS61 KBGM 021723
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
123 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DRY WARM WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AND 1 PM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES. FIRST CHSOWERS LINGERING OVER NE CWA SO UPPED POPS
THIS MORNING. NOW TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAX FORECAST SO UPPED
TEMPS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW MORE HEATING TO OCCUR BEFORE
SHOWERS COME IN AFTER 3 PM IN NW AND CLOSER TO 8 PM IN SE.

415 AM UPDATE...

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. RIGHT NOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR
ELMIRA, AND A FEW MORE OVER THE TUG HILL GIVE US A GOOD IDEA OF
OUR WEATHER THROUGH NOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME BUT MOST WILL REMAIN
DRY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF DETROIT WILL BE THE
TRIGGER FOR A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
18Z.

FOLLOWING THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC/ARW/NMM FOR TIMING, A LINE OR
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FRINGES OF
OUR CWA TOWARD 18Z. IT APPEARS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS FOR
THE BULK OF OUR AREA WILL COME CLOSER TO 21Z AND SHOULD IMPACT A
LINE FROM NEAR UTICA/NORWICH/BINGHAMTON/TOWANDA BACK WESTWARD
THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES. AFTER 21Z THE LINE SHOULD SLOWLY
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH NEPA BY 03Z. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE
MOST OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER INCLUDE GOOD MID LEVEL SHEAR (0-6 KM BULK SHEARS 45+ KTS),
WHICH WOULD FAVOR BROKEN OR SHORT LINES OF CONVECTION MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WHICH IS PLAYING OUT IN MINIMAL MLCAPES. THE
NAM SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH MLCAPES ABOVE 1,000 J/KG.
MEANWHILE THE RUC/ARW/EURO/GFS ALL SHOW VALUES CLOSER TO 500 J/KG.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO AND GRIDS WITH
GUSTY WIND WORDING, TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. WE WILL CAREFULLY
WATCH THE MESO ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A GREATER CONCERN. LASTLY, WHILE THE STORMS
WILL BE PROGRESSIVE TODAY, PWATS DO BRIEFLY CLIMB TOWARD 2"! WITH
THAT IN MIND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. NO PROBLEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED ASIDE FROM ANY STORMS MOVING OVER URBAN AREAS, WHERE
RAINFALL RATES CAN ALWAYS POSE A PROBLEM WHEN THEY GO ABOVE 1.5
INCHES IN AN HOUR.

CONVECTION DIES DOWN BY 03Z, WITH DRIER WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST AND KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET DURING
THE PERIOD. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE WARM AIR, AS A BUBBLE OF
VERY WARM AIR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SPREADS EAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE AFTER A BRIEF COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WEDNESDAY, WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPS NEAR 80, WE WILL REBOUND
WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN HOTTER AIR
IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. READ MORE BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH WILL FEATURE A WEEKEND
FROPA. MAX TEMPS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON FRI WILL GET WELL INTO THE
8OS...WITH HIGHS GNRLY IN THE 65-70 RNG BY SUN/MON. BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FNT ON SAT...WITH COOLER TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER XPCTD FOR SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z TUE UPDATE... PATCHY MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL THROUGH
13-14Z...WITH SOME LWR CIGS...AND ALSO BR/-SHRA OUT THERE.

FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL...UNDERNEATH A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD. BY LATE AFTN...THOUGH...IT APPEARS THAT A LN OF SHWRS/TSTMS
WILL MARCH ACRS THE RGN...ALG AND JUST AHD OF A COLD FRNTL BNDRY.
FOR NOW...WE`VE PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA WITHIN A NARROW
2-HR TIME FRAME AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

THIS EVE...BEHIND THE COLD FRNT...IT APPEARS THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS ONCE AGN...SPCLY ACRS CNTRL/ERN NY. WE`VE
INTRODUCED THIS PSBLTY AT KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM ONLY. SOME DRYING IS
EXPECTED LTR TNT...WITH MAINLY VFR RETURNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/TAC
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/TAC
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KAH/MLJ






000
FXUS61 KBGM 021723
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
123 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DRY WARM WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AND 1 PM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES. FIRST CHSOWERS LINGERING OVER NE CWA SO UPPED POPS
THIS MORNING. NOW TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAX FORECAST SO UPPED
TEMPS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW MORE HEATING TO OCCUR BEFORE
SHOWERS COME IN AFTER 3 PM IN NW AND CLOSER TO 8 PM IN SE.

415 AM UPDATE...

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. RIGHT NOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR
ELMIRA, AND A FEW MORE OVER THE TUG HILL GIVE US A GOOD IDEA OF
OUR WEATHER THROUGH NOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME BUT MOST WILL REMAIN
DRY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF DETROIT WILL BE THE
TRIGGER FOR A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
18Z.

FOLLOWING THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC/ARW/NMM FOR TIMING, A LINE OR
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FRINGES OF
OUR CWA TOWARD 18Z. IT APPEARS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS FOR
THE BULK OF OUR AREA WILL COME CLOSER TO 21Z AND SHOULD IMPACT A
LINE FROM NEAR UTICA/NORWICH/BINGHAMTON/TOWANDA BACK WESTWARD
THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES. AFTER 21Z THE LINE SHOULD SLOWLY
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH NEPA BY 03Z. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE
MOST OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER INCLUDE GOOD MID LEVEL SHEAR (0-6 KM BULK SHEARS 45+ KTS),
WHICH WOULD FAVOR BROKEN OR SHORT LINES OF CONVECTION MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WHICH IS PLAYING OUT IN MINIMAL MLCAPES. THE
NAM SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH MLCAPES ABOVE 1,000 J/KG.
MEANWHILE THE RUC/ARW/EURO/GFS ALL SHOW VALUES CLOSER TO 500 J/KG.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO AND GRIDS WITH
GUSTY WIND WORDING, TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. WE WILL CAREFULLY
WATCH THE MESO ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A GREATER CONCERN. LASTLY, WHILE THE STORMS
WILL BE PROGRESSIVE TODAY, PWATS DO BRIEFLY CLIMB TOWARD 2"! WITH
THAT IN MIND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. NO PROBLEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED ASIDE FROM ANY STORMS MOVING OVER URBAN AREAS, WHERE
RAINFALL RATES CAN ALWAYS POSE A PROBLEM WHEN THEY GO ABOVE 1.5
INCHES IN AN HOUR.

CONVECTION DIES DOWN BY 03Z, WITH DRIER WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST AND KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET DURING
THE PERIOD. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE WARM AIR, AS A BUBBLE OF
VERY WARM AIR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SPREADS EAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE AFTER A BRIEF COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WEDNESDAY, WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPS NEAR 80, WE WILL REBOUND
WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN HOTTER AIR
IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. READ MORE BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH WILL FEATURE A WEEKEND
FROPA. MAX TEMPS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON FRI WILL GET WELL INTO THE
8OS...WITH HIGHS GNRLY IN THE 65-70 RNG BY SUN/MON. BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FNT ON SAT...WITH COOLER TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER XPCTD FOR SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z TUE UPDATE... PATCHY MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL THROUGH
13-14Z...WITH SOME LWR CIGS...AND ALSO BR/-SHRA OUT THERE.

FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL...UNDERNEATH A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD. BY LATE AFTN...THOUGH...IT APPEARS THAT A LN OF SHWRS/TSTMS
WILL MARCH ACRS THE RGN...ALG AND JUST AHD OF A COLD FRNTL BNDRY.
FOR NOW...WE`VE PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA WITHIN A NARROW
2-HR TIME FRAME AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

THIS EVE...BEHIND THE COLD FRNT...IT APPEARS THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS ONCE AGN...SPCLY ACRS CNTRL/ERN NY. WE`VE
INTRODUCED THIS PSBLTY AT KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM ONLY. SOME DRYING IS
EXPECTED LTR TNT...WITH MAINLY VFR RETURNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/TAC
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/TAC
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KAH/MLJ







000
FXUS61 KBTV 021719
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
119 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1029 AM EDT TUESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO SKY COVER AND
DEWPOINTS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE. LEANING MORE
TOWARD HRRR/RAP OUTPUT INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN NY...THEN INTO VT BY EARLY EVENING. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS STILL A POSSIBILITY...ESP DACKS
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/SRN VT IN THE 3-8 PM TIME FRAME. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO REAL BIG
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. STILL LOOKING FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THIS FRONT WILL REACH VERMONT BY EARLY EVENING. THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
AS THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE
TOP OF THE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED
AND LONGER LIVED...THUS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED
WELL WITH ENHANCED WORDING ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY EXITING MOST OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY DURING THIS PERIOD AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND NOT THE NORTHWEST...COLDER AIR WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. SO EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE
COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA PREDOMINANTLY UNDER
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EASTERN US RIDGE NOSING INTO NEW
ENGLAND EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND BROAD TROUGH ESTABLISHED FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECT FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SURFACE FRONT.
BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS HIT THE UPPER TEENS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
VERY WARM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS...ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY UP A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE.

500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
US TIER STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH BEST UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW
PASSING TO NORTH...SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWS AND BECOMES ORIENTED
MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS
MOVING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE ECMWF HANGS IT UP IN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. HEDGED
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEPT CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY. RIGHT
NOW SATURDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER...
COINCIDING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES
DO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND LOWER HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DETERIORATE TO VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CIGS WILL PRIMARILY
REMAIN VFR BUT VSBY WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR AS STORMS PASS.
AFTER 06Z...PRECIP IS EAST OF THE REGION LEAVING GENERALLY CLOUDY
SKIES. CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE VFR AT KMSS/KPBG/KBTV...BUT
MVFR AT KRUT/KSLK/KMPV WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT KRUT UNDER BLOCKED
FLOW. AFTER 12Z...ALL CIGS LIFT TO VFR WITH SCT-BKN DIURNAL
STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WED - 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z SAT - 00Z SUN...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z SUN - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 021719
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
119 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1029 AM EDT TUESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO SKY COVER AND
DEWPOINTS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE. LEANING MORE
TOWARD HRRR/RAP OUTPUT INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN NY...THEN INTO VT BY EARLY EVENING. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS STILL A POSSIBILITY...ESP DACKS
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/SRN VT IN THE 3-8 PM TIME FRAME. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO REAL BIG
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. STILL LOOKING FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THIS FRONT WILL REACH VERMONT BY EARLY EVENING. THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
AS THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE
TOP OF THE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED
AND LONGER LIVED...THUS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED
WELL WITH ENHANCED WORDING ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY EXITING MOST OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY DURING THIS PERIOD AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND NOT THE NORTHWEST...COLDER AIR WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. SO EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE
COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA PREDOMINANTLY UNDER
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EASTERN US RIDGE NOSING INTO NEW
ENGLAND EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND BROAD TROUGH ESTABLISHED FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECT FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SURFACE FRONT.
BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS HIT THE UPPER TEENS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
VERY WARM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS...ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY UP A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE.

500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
US TIER STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH BEST UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW
PASSING TO NORTH...SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWS AND BECOMES ORIENTED
MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS
MOVING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE ECMWF HANGS IT UP IN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. HEDGED
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEPT CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY. RIGHT
NOW SATURDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER...
COINCIDING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES
DO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND LOWER HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DETERIORATE TO VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CIGS WILL PRIMARILY
REMAIN VFR BUT VSBY WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR AS STORMS PASS.
AFTER 06Z...PRECIP IS EAST OF THE REGION LEAVING GENERALLY CLOUDY
SKIES. CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE VFR AT KMSS/KPBG/KBTV...BUT
MVFR AT KRUT/KSLK/KMPV WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT KRUT UNDER BLOCKED
FLOW. AFTER 12Z...ALL CIGS LIFT TO VFR WITH SCT-BKN DIURNAL
STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WED - 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z SAT - 00Z SUN...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z SUN - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KALY 021656
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1256 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXITING...BUT MORE ISOLATED
SHOWERS TRACKING INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND HEADING TOWARD THE
HELDERBERGS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SPREADING EAST NOW AND EVEN
THOUGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE IN SOME AREAS...
SHOULD RISE TO NEAR FORECASTED LEVELS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING ARE IN THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY WHERE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO FORM AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES...RAIN CHANCES AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...UNTIL NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND
CAN REFINE FORECAST LATER BASED ON NEWER DATA. HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RAIN SHOULD END TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG/STRATUS AT KGFL/KPSF WILL BE GONE BY 13Z...
OTHERWISE THE TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH MAY GET CLOSE TO
TERMINALS...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED AT KALB BTWN 12Z-16Z.


BEGINNING 21Z TO 23Z HAVE FORECASTED A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE
THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT
4 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 021656
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1256 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXITING...BUT MORE ISOLATED
SHOWERS TRACKING INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND HEADING TOWARD THE
HELDERBERGS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SPREADING EAST NOW AND EVEN
THOUGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE IN SOME AREAS...
SHOULD RISE TO NEAR FORECASTED LEVELS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING ARE IN THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY WHERE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO FORM AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES...RAIN CHANCES AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...UNTIL NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND
CAN REFINE FORECAST LATER BASED ON NEWER DATA. HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RAIN SHOULD END TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG/STRATUS AT KGFL/KPSF WILL BE GONE BY 13Z...
OTHERWISE THE TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH MAY GET CLOSE TO
TERMINALS...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED AT KALB BTWN 12Z-16Z.


BEGINNING 21Z TO 23Z HAVE FORECASTED A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE
THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT
4 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 021530
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1130 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
BRING A RETURN TO DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT EASING
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME LEADING PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM ARE CROSSING LAKE ERIE
AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AT 15Z. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO BEING
FORCED AHEAD OF THIS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. EXPECT THIS FIRST
BATCH OF SHOWERS JUST TO THE WEST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON REACHING NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A A SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS ORIENTED ALONG
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING DETROIT TOWARD THE WESTERN END OF
LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH WITH
FORECAST SBCAPES GENERALLY RUNNING BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG COMBINED
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WHICH WILL INCREASE TO 40-50KT JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET NEARING
THE REGION. THE KEY FACTOR IN SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS TO BE THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING THAT TAKES PLACE BEFORE FROPA...I.E. CLOUD
COVER LIMITING HEATING...AND THUS LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS OUTLINED FROM SPC EXTENDING FROM
THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES INTO CENTRAL NEW
YORK. ELEVATED SHEAR AND LIMITED LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP STRONG GUSTY
WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.7"-1.8" OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL OFFER THE RISK FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM AND MUGGY SIDE AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...TAKING
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRYING AND CLEARING
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED INTO
EASTERN QUEBEC WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE INCREASE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
MORNING. DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO ALONG A
CONVERGENCE ZONE RUNNING FROM THE NIAGARA PENINSULA TO NEAR
ROCHESTER. THIS MAY YIELD A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN IN THESE AREAS FOR
THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +12C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND
80 AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS
WILL PROVIDE MORE DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE
TIME. EXPECT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COOL OR DRY. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 ON THE LAKE PLAINS TO AROUND 50 IN THE COOLEST
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE THICKER CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO +14C TO +16C
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS
UP IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES.
ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BRING SOME
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. A WARMER AIRMASS AND A MIXING BREEZE
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE WITH UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG
HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE VERY CHANGEABLE WITH ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS
OF THE YEAR ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE
WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO JAMES BAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL CAPTURE AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ WITH ORIGINS
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS EML PLUME WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS
TO SOAR TO AROUND +18C TO +19C. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S IN MANY AREAS...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS LIKELY TO BE
IN THE GENESEE VALLEY. THE EML PLUME WILL PROVIDE A STRONG CAP IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND SHOULD HOLD CONVECTION AT BAY UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT AND TROUGH APPROACH AND
AID IN ERODING THE MID LEVEL CAP.

FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE ACTIVE WITH A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS QUEBEC...ALTHOUGH A
TRAILING RIBBON OF STRONGER FLOW IN THE 900-700MB LAYER WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO ORGANIZE A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF ON TIMING...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO LOW LIKELY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW...WITH THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WOULD HOLD
UP THE FRONT SOMEWHAT AND ALSO FORCE IT TO BECOME MORE ANABATIC IN
NATURE WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
GFS HAS A FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SATURDAY DRY. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH A HEDGE TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. IN EITHER CASE IT WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTHEAST OF
THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THEIR COOLEST ON SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
60S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. AIRMASS
MODERATION WILL BEGIN BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ARE ARRIVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THE LOWER CIGS TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD EVEN
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON LAKE ERIE WINDS AND WAVES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS AND REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR LAKE ERIE THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL ALSO
PRODUCE A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...OF
WHICH A FEW COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE BRINGING A RETURN TO
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/SMITH
NEAR TERM...JM/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM/SMITH
MARINE...JM/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 021530
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1130 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
BRING A RETURN TO DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT EASING
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME LEADING PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM ARE CROSSING LAKE ERIE
AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AT 15Z. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO BEING
FORCED AHEAD OF THIS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. EXPECT THIS FIRST
BATCH OF SHOWERS JUST TO THE WEST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON REACHING NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A A SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS ORIENTED ALONG
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING DETROIT TOWARD THE WESTERN END OF
LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH WITH
FORECAST SBCAPES GENERALLY RUNNING BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG COMBINED
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WHICH WILL INCREASE TO 40-50KT JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET NEARING
THE REGION. THE KEY FACTOR IN SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS TO BE THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING THAT TAKES PLACE BEFORE FROPA...I.E. CLOUD
COVER LIMITING HEATING...AND THUS LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS OUTLINED FROM SPC EXTENDING FROM
THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES INTO CENTRAL NEW
YORK. ELEVATED SHEAR AND LIMITED LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP STRONG GUSTY
WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.7"-1.8" OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL OFFER THE RISK FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM AND MUGGY SIDE AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...TAKING
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRYING AND CLEARING
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED INTO
EASTERN QUEBEC WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE INCREASE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
MORNING. DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO ALONG A
CONVERGENCE ZONE RUNNING FROM THE NIAGARA PENINSULA TO NEAR
ROCHESTER. THIS MAY YIELD A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN IN THESE AREAS FOR
THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +12C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND
80 AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS
WILL PROVIDE MORE DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE
TIME. EXPECT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COOL OR DRY. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 ON THE LAKE PLAINS TO AROUND 50 IN THE COOLEST
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE THICKER CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO +14C TO +16C
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS
UP IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES.
ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BRING SOME
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. A WARMER AIRMASS AND A MIXING BREEZE
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE WITH UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG
HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE VERY CHANGEABLE WITH ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS
OF THE YEAR ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE
WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO JAMES BAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL CAPTURE AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ WITH ORIGINS
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS EML PLUME WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS
TO SOAR TO AROUND +18C TO +19C. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S IN MANY AREAS...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS LIKELY TO BE
IN THE GENESEE VALLEY. THE EML PLUME WILL PROVIDE A STRONG CAP IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND SHOULD HOLD CONVECTION AT BAY UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT AND TROUGH APPROACH AND
AID IN ERODING THE MID LEVEL CAP.

FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE ACTIVE WITH A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS QUEBEC...ALTHOUGH A
TRAILING RIBBON OF STRONGER FLOW IN THE 900-700MB LAYER WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO ORGANIZE A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF ON TIMING...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO LOW LIKELY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW...WITH THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WOULD HOLD
UP THE FRONT SOMEWHAT AND ALSO FORCE IT TO BECOME MORE ANABATIC IN
NATURE WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
GFS HAS A FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SATURDAY DRY. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH A HEDGE TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. IN EITHER CASE IT WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTHEAST OF
THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THEIR COOLEST ON SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
60S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. AIRMASS
MODERATION WILL BEGIN BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ARE ARRIVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THE LOWER CIGS TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD EVEN
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON LAKE ERIE WINDS AND WAVES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS AND REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR LAKE ERIE THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL ALSO
PRODUCE A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...OF
WHICH A FEW COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE BRINGING A RETURN TO
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/SMITH
NEAR TERM...JM/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM/SMITH
MARINE...JM/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 021530
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1130 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
BRING A RETURN TO DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT EASING
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME LEADING PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM ARE CROSSING LAKE ERIE
AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AT 15Z. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO BEING
FORCED AHEAD OF THIS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. EXPECT THIS FIRST
BATCH OF SHOWERS JUST TO THE WEST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON REACHING NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A A SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS ORIENTED ALONG
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING DETROIT TOWARD THE WESTERN END OF
LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH WITH
FORECAST SBCAPES GENERALLY RUNNING BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG COMBINED
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WHICH WILL INCREASE TO 40-50KT JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET NEARING
THE REGION. THE KEY FACTOR IN SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS TO BE THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING THAT TAKES PLACE BEFORE FROPA...I.E. CLOUD
COVER LIMITING HEATING...AND THUS LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS OUTLINED FROM SPC EXTENDING FROM
THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES INTO CENTRAL NEW
YORK. ELEVATED SHEAR AND LIMITED LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP STRONG GUSTY
WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.7"-1.8" OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL OFFER THE RISK FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM AND MUGGY SIDE AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...TAKING
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRYING AND CLEARING
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED INTO
EASTERN QUEBEC WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE INCREASE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
MORNING. DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO ALONG A
CONVERGENCE ZONE RUNNING FROM THE NIAGARA PENINSULA TO NEAR
ROCHESTER. THIS MAY YIELD A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN IN THESE AREAS FOR
THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +12C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND
80 AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS
WILL PROVIDE MORE DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE
TIME. EXPECT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COOL OR DRY. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 ON THE LAKE PLAINS TO AROUND 50 IN THE COOLEST
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE THICKER CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO +14C TO +16C
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS
UP IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES.
ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BRING SOME
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. A WARMER AIRMASS AND A MIXING BREEZE
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE WITH UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG
HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE VERY CHANGEABLE WITH ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS
OF THE YEAR ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE
WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO JAMES BAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL CAPTURE AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ WITH ORIGINS
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS EML PLUME WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS
TO SOAR TO AROUND +18C TO +19C. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S IN MANY AREAS...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS LIKELY TO BE
IN THE GENESEE VALLEY. THE EML PLUME WILL PROVIDE A STRONG CAP IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND SHOULD HOLD CONVECTION AT BAY UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT AND TROUGH APPROACH AND
AID IN ERODING THE MID LEVEL CAP.

FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE ACTIVE WITH A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS QUEBEC...ALTHOUGH A
TRAILING RIBBON OF STRONGER FLOW IN THE 900-700MB LAYER WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO ORGANIZE A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF ON TIMING...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO LOW LIKELY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW...WITH THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WOULD HOLD
UP THE FRONT SOMEWHAT AND ALSO FORCE IT TO BECOME MORE ANABATIC IN
NATURE WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
GFS HAS A FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SATURDAY DRY. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH A HEDGE TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. IN EITHER CASE IT WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTHEAST OF
THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THEIR COOLEST ON SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
60S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. AIRMASS
MODERATION WILL BEGIN BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ARE ARRIVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THE LOWER CIGS TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD EVEN
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON LAKE ERIE WINDS AND WAVES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS AND REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR LAKE ERIE THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL ALSO
PRODUCE A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...OF
WHICH A FEW COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE BRINGING A RETURN TO
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/SMITH
NEAR TERM...JM/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM/SMITH
MARINE...JM/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 021530
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1130 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
BRING A RETURN TO DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT EASING
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME LEADING PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM ARE CROSSING LAKE ERIE
AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AT 15Z. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO BEING
FORCED AHEAD OF THIS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. EXPECT THIS FIRST
BATCH OF SHOWERS JUST TO THE WEST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON REACHING NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A A SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS ORIENTED ALONG
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING DETROIT TOWARD THE WESTERN END OF
LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH WITH
FORECAST SBCAPES GENERALLY RUNNING BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG COMBINED
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WHICH WILL INCREASE TO 40-50KT JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET NEARING
THE REGION. THE KEY FACTOR IN SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS TO BE THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING THAT TAKES PLACE BEFORE FROPA...I.E. CLOUD
COVER LIMITING HEATING...AND THUS LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS OUTLINED FROM SPC EXTENDING FROM
THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES INTO CENTRAL NEW
YORK. ELEVATED SHEAR AND LIMITED LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP STRONG GUSTY
WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.7"-1.8" OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL OFFER THE RISK FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM AND MUGGY SIDE AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...TAKING
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRYING AND CLEARING
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED INTO
EASTERN QUEBEC WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE INCREASE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
MORNING. DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO ALONG A
CONVERGENCE ZONE RUNNING FROM THE NIAGARA PENINSULA TO NEAR
ROCHESTER. THIS MAY YIELD A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN IN THESE AREAS FOR
THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +12C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND
80 AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS
WILL PROVIDE MORE DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE
TIME. EXPECT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COOL OR DRY. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 ON THE LAKE PLAINS TO AROUND 50 IN THE COOLEST
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE THICKER CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO +14C TO +16C
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS
UP IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES.
ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BRING SOME
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. A WARMER AIRMASS AND A MIXING BREEZE
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE WITH UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG
HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE VERY CHANGEABLE WITH ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS
OF THE YEAR ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE
WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO JAMES BAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL CAPTURE AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ WITH ORIGINS
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS EML PLUME WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS
TO SOAR TO AROUND +18C TO +19C. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S IN MANY AREAS...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS LIKELY TO BE
IN THE GENESEE VALLEY. THE EML PLUME WILL PROVIDE A STRONG CAP IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND SHOULD HOLD CONVECTION AT BAY UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT AND TROUGH APPROACH AND
AID IN ERODING THE MID LEVEL CAP.

FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE ACTIVE WITH A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS QUEBEC...ALTHOUGH A
TRAILING RIBBON OF STRONGER FLOW IN THE 900-700MB LAYER WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO ORGANIZE A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF ON TIMING...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO LOW LIKELY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW...WITH THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WOULD HOLD
UP THE FRONT SOMEWHAT AND ALSO FORCE IT TO BECOME MORE ANABATIC IN
NATURE WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
GFS HAS A FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SATURDAY DRY. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH A HEDGE TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. IN EITHER CASE IT WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTHEAST OF
THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THEIR COOLEST ON SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
60S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. AIRMASS
MODERATION WILL BEGIN BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ARE ARRIVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THE LOWER CIGS TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD EVEN
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON LAKE ERIE WINDS AND WAVES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS AND REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR LAKE ERIE THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL ALSO
PRODUCE A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...OF
WHICH A FEW COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE BRINGING A RETURN TO
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/SMITH
NEAR TERM...JM/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM/SMITH
MARINE...JM/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KOKX 021443
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1043 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW PATCHES ALONG THE COAST NEAR SE CT AND THE SOUTH FORK NEAR
MONTAUK. VERY HIGH DEW POINT AIR...70 TO 75...TRAVERSING THE
COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS HAS ALLOWED FOR THIS FOG. THIS THOUGH
SHOULD NOT LAST MUCH LONGER DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER DEW POINTS BY AFT.

OTHERWISE...CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS A CHALLENGING ONE.
WHILE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND REMAIN OVER MAINLY
WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES...APPEARS SHOULD HAVE A WEAK CAP DEVELOP
AROUND 650 HPA. SO EVEN WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE FORECAST...THE
WEAK CAP COUPLED WITH BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PROGGED TO OUR N...AND
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR 20 KT OR LESS UNTIL MAYBE VERY LATE IN THE
DAY OVER FAR W ZONES AS LOW-MID LEVEL JET APPROACHES THERE.
APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION IS OVER AREAS N/W OF NYC
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW-MID LEVEL JET.

GIVEN ABOVE...FEEL THAT MOST LIKELY CAP HOLDS ON OVER THE SE 2/3
OF THE CWA...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THERE. HAVE CHANCE
POPS BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL
BE MAINLY OF THE PULSE VARIETY...WITH SOME MULTI-CELLULAR
STRUCTURES POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY ORANGE COUNTY
WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW-MID LEVEL JETS. BASED ON THIS FEEL SEVERE
THREAT IS MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT.

HIGH REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING 100 IN METRO NY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 80-90 KT 300 HPA
JET...PASSING OF STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL JETS IN THE
EVENING...AND THE AREA UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS...COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 2 INCHES...THEN HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM THIS EVENING. REFER TO HYDROLOGY
SECTION OF THE AFD FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

HOWEVER...WILL BE WORKING AGAINST DIMINISH CAPE WITH THE LOSS OF
SOLAR HEATING...WITH BEST DYNAMICS PASSING TO THE N...BELIEVE THAT
ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...AND IT WAS NOT ALL THAT HIGH TO BEGIN WITH.

700-500 HPA SHORTWAVES LIFTS TO THE N/E OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR THINGS TO DRY OUT
LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVES.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM
850-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS SUNNY AND DRY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT HUMIDITY LEVELS TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING OFFSHORE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE
MODELS WANT TO LINGER SOME PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...DO NOT WANT TO RULE THIS OUT...SO WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED RIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS.  TEMPERATURES THEN FALL
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR. ISO/SCT TSTMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDS THIS AFTN AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS AROUND 19Z...BUT MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR
AFTER 00-01Z. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE SHIFT COULD BE AROUND AN HOUR OFF
IN EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE COULD POTENTIALLY SHIFT WINDS TO
THE SOUTH AROUND 21Z. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THIS SHIFT
YET.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS 15-18 KT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM
POTENTIAL.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM
POTENTIAL.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM
POTENTIAL.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH FRI...
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT...SUB-VFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT ON ANZ-350
TONIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND RESIDUAL 1-2 FT SWELLS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
NOT ALL THAT HIGH...SO DO NOT REFLECT IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SEAS SHOULD COME DOWN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SPOTTY SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY OVER AREAS N/W OF NYC...COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LESS THAN
0.2 INCHES OF BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...BC/MALOIT/DW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC/SEARS
MARINE...BC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...BC/MALOIT






000
FXUS61 KOKX 021443
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1043 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW PATCHES ALONG THE COAST NEAR SE CT AND THE SOUTH FORK NEAR
MONTAUK. VERY HIGH DEW POINT AIR...70 TO 75...TRAVERSING THE
COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS HAS ALLOWED FOR THIS FOG. THIS THOUGH
SHOULD NOT LAST MUCH LONGER DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER DEW POINTS BY AFT.

OTHERWISE...CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS A CHALLENGING ONE.
WHILE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND REMAIN OVER MAINLY
WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES...APPEARS SHOULD HAVE A WEAK CAP DEVELOP
AROUND 650 HPA. SO EVEN WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE FORECAST...THE
WEAK CAP COUPLED WITH BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PROGGED TO OUR N...AND
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR 20 KT OR LESS UNTIL MAYBE VERY LATE IN THE
DAY OVER FAR W ZONES AS LOW-MID LEVEL JET APPROACHES THERE.
APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION IS OVER AREAS N/W OF NYC
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW-MID LEVEL JET.

GIVEN ABOVE...FEEL THAT MOST LIKELY CAP HOLDS ON OVER THE SE 2/3
OF THE CWA...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THERE. HAVE CHANCE
POPS BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL
BE MAINLY OF THE PULSE VARIETY...WITH SOME MULTI-CELLULAR
STRUCTURES POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY ORANGE COUNTY
WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW-MID LEVEL JETS. BASED ON THIS FEEL SEVERE
THREAT IS MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT.

HIGH REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING 100 IN METRO NY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 80-90 KT 300 HPA
JET...PASSING OF STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL JETS IN THE
EVENING...AND THE AREA UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS...COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 2 INCHES...THEN HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM THIS EVENING. REFER TO HYDROLOGY
SECTION OF THE AFD FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

HOWEVER...WILL BE WORKING AGAINST DIMINISH CAPE WITH THE LOSS OF
SOLAR HEATING...WITH BEST DYNAMICS PASSING TO THE N...BELIEVE THAT
ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...AND IT WAS NOT ALL THAT HIGH TO BEGIN WITH.

700-500 HPA SHORTWAVES LIFTS TO THE N/E OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR THINGS TO DRY OUT
LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVES.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM
850-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS SUNNY AND DRY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT HUMIDITY LEVELS TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING OFFSHORE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE
MODELS WANT TO LINGER SOME PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...DO NOT WANT TO RULE THIS OUT...SO WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED RIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS.  TEMPERATURES THEN FALL
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR. ISO/SCT TSTMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDS THIS AFTN AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS AROUND 19Z...BUT MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR
AFTER 00-01Z. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE SHIFT COULD BE AROUND AN HOUR OFF
IN EITHER DIRECTION.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE COULD POTENTIALLY SHIFT WINDS TO
THE SOUTH AROUND 21Z. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THIS SHIFT
YET.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS 15-18 KT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM
POTENTIAL.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM
POTENTIAL.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM
POTENTIAL.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH FRI...
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT...SUB-VFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT ON ANZ-350
TONIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND RESIDUAL 1-2 FT SWELLS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
NOT ALL THAT HIGH...SO DO NOT REFLECT IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SEAS SHOULD COME DOWN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SPOTTY SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY OVER AREAS N/W OF NYC...COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LESS THAN
0.2 INCHES OF BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...BC/MALOIT/DW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC/SEARS
MARINE...BC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...BC/MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KBTV 021429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1029 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1029 AM EDT TUESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO SKY COVER AND
DEWPOINTS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE. LEANING MORE
TOWARD HRRR/RAP OUTPUT INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN NY...THEN INTO VT BY EARLY EVENING. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS STILL A POSSIBILITY...ESP DACKS
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/SRN VT IN THE 3-8 PM TIME FRAME. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO REAL BIG
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. STILL LOOKING FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THIS FRONT WILL REACH VERMONT BY EARLY EVENING. THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
AS THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE
TOP OF THE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED
AND LONGER LIVED...THUS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED
WELL WITH ENHANCED WORDING ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY EXITING MOST OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY DURING THIS PERIOD AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND NOT THE NORTHWEST...COLDER AIR WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. SO EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE
COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA PREDOMINANTLY UNDER
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EASTERN US RIDGE NOSING INTO NEW
ENGLAND EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND BROAD TROUGH ESTABLISHED FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECT FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SURFACE FRONT.
BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS HIT THE UPPER TEENS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
VERY WARM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS...ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY UP A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE.

500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
US TIER STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH BEST UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW
PASSING TO NORTH...SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWS AND BECOMES ORIENTED
MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS
MOVING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE ECMWF HANGS IT UP IN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. HEDGED
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEPT CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY. RIGHT
NOW SATURDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER...
COINCIDING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES
DO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND LOWER HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED EAST...AND HAVE OPTED TO
REMOVE MORNING VCSH FROM TAF SITES TO FOCUS ON AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF
THE BORDER...BUT CHANCES TOO SLIM TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FORECAST
STILL ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY 20-23Z
AND VT 22-01Z TIMEFRAME. VSBY WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR AS STORMS PASS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON






000
FXUS61 KBTV 021429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1029 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1029 AM EDT TUESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO SKY COVER AND
DEWPOINTS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE. LEANING MORE
TOWARD HRRR/RAP OUTPUT INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN NY...THEN INTO VT BY EARLY EVENING. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS STILL A POSSIBILITY...ESP DACKS
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/SRN VT IN THE 3-8 PM TIME FRAME. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO REAL BIG
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. STILL LOOKING FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THIS FRONT WILL REACH VERMONT BY EARLY EVENING. THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
AS THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE
TOP OF THE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED
AND LONGER LIVED...THUS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED
WELL WITH ENHANCED WORDING ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY EXITING MOST OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY DURING THIS PERIOD AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND NOT THE NORTHWEST...COLDER AIR WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. SO EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE
COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA PREDOMINANTLY UNDER
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EASTERN US RIDGE NOSING INTO NEW
ENGLAND EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND BROAD TROUGH ESTABLISHED FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECT FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SURFACE FRONT.
BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS HIT THE UPPER TEENS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
VERY WARM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS...ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY UP A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE.

500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
US TIER STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH BEST UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW
PASSING TO NORTH...SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWS AND BECOMES ORIENTED
MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS
MOVING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE ECMWF HANGS IT UP IN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. HEDGED
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEPT CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY. RIGHT
NOW SATURDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER...
COINCIDING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES
DO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND LOWER HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED EAST...AND HAVE OPTED TO
REMOVE MORNING VCSH FROM TAF SITES TO FOCUS ON AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF
THE BORDER...BUT CHANCES TOO SLIM TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FORECAST
STILL ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY 20-23Z
AND VT 22-01Z TIMEFRAME. VSBY WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR AS STORMS PASS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON







000
FXUS61 KALY 021243
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
843 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 841 AM EDT...QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLD SHOWERS AHEAD
OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR. SOME SHOWERS ARE ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND MOVED THROUGH THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE
BERKSHIRES AND SRN VT. THESE SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL LIMIT THE HEATING THIS MORNING. THE BETTER FORCING
FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL NOT REACH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL 22Z-
00Z BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. THE FOG WAS ALSO REMOVED
FROM THE GRIDS...AND THE CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED OVER THE NRN
AND CNTRL THIRD.

THE H500 TEMP THIS MORNING IS -6C WITH KBUF -8C. THE 12Z KALB RAOB
INDICATES A STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL CAP IS BETWEEN 750-650 HPA
WHICH WILL CURTAIL ANY STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THREAT UNTIL THE
LATE PM/EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE MID AND UPPER 90S...SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.  HILLTOWNS
WILL HAVE APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG/STRATUS AT KGFL/KPSF WILL BE GONE BY 13Z...
OTHERWISE THE TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH MAY GET CLOSE TO
TERMINALS...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED AT KALB BTWN 12Z-16Z.


BEGINNING 21Z TO 23Z HAVE FORECASTED A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE
THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT
4 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 021243
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
843 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 841 AM EDT...QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLD SHOWERS AHEAD
OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR. SOME SHOWERS ARE ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND MOVED THROUGH THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE
BERKSHIRES AND SRN VT. THESE SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL LIMIT THE HEATING THIS MORNING. THE BETTER FORCING
FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL NOT REACH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL 22Z-
00Z BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. THE FOG WAS ALSO REMOVED
FROM THE GRIDS...AND THE CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED OVER THE NRN
AND CNTRL THIRD.

THE H500 TEMP THIS MORNING IS -6C WITH KBUF -8C. THE 12Z KALB RAOB
INDICATES A STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL CAP IS BETWEEN 750-650 HPA
WHICH WILL CURTAIL ANY STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THREAT UNTIL THE
LATE PM/EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE MID AND UPPER 90S...SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.  HILLTOWNS
WILL HAVE APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG/STRATUS AT KGFL/KPSF WILL BE GONE BY 13Z...
OTHERWISE THE TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH MAY GET CLOSE TO
TERMINALS...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED AT KALB BTWN 12Z-16Z.


BEGINNING 21Z TO 23Z HAVE FORECASTED A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE
THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT
4 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 021243
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
843 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 841 AM EDT...QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLD SHOWERS AHEAD
OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR. SOME SHOWERS ARE ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND MOVED THROUGH THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE
BERKSHIRES AND SRN VT. THESE SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL LIMIT THE HEATING THIS MORNING. THE BETTER FORCING
FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL NOT REACH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL 22Z-
00Z BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. THE FOG WAS ALSO REMOVED
FROM THE GRIDS...AND THE CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED OVER THE NRN
AND CNTRL THIRD.

THE H500 TEMP THIS MORNING IS -6C WITH KBUF -8C. THE 12Z KALB RAOB
INDICATES A STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL CAP IS BETWEEN 750-650 HPA
WHICH WILL CURTAIL ANY STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THREAT UNTIL THE
LATE PM/EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE MID AND UPPER 90S...SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.  HILLTOWNS
WILL HAVE APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG/STRATUS AT KGFL/KPSF WILL BE GONE BY 13Z...
OTHERWISE THE TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH MAY GET CLOSE TO
TERMINALS...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED AT KALB BTWN 12Z-16Z.


BEGINNING 21Z TO 23Z HAVE FORECASTED A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE
THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT
4 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 021243
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
843 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 841 AM EDT...QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLD SHOWERS AHEAD
OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR. SOME SHOWERS ARE ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND MOVED THROUGH THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE
BERKSHIRES AND SRN VT. THESE SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL LIMIT THE HEATING THIS MORNING. THE BETTER FORCING
FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL NOT REACH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL 22Z-
00Z BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. THE FOG WAS ALSO REMOVED
FROM THE GRIDS...AND THE CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED OVER THE NRN
AND CNTRL THIRD.

THE H500 TEMP THIS MORNING IS -6C WITH KBUF -8C. THE 12Z KALB RAOB
INDICATES A STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL CAP IS BETWEEN 750-650 HPA
WHICH WILL CURTAIL ANY STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THREAT UNTIL THE
LATE PM/EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE MID AND UPPER 90S...SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.  HILLTOWNS
WILL HAVE APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG/STRATUS AT KGFL/KPSF WILL BE GONE BY 13Z...
OTHERWISE THE TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH MAY GET CLOSE TO
TERMINALS...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED AT KALB BTWN 12Z-16Z.


BEGINNING 21Z TO 23Z HAVE FORECASTED A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE
THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT
4 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 021209
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
809 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND BRING A RETURN TO DRIER AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS AT 12Z THIS MORNING SHOWING JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES...WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH MID MORNING. AFTER
THAT...EXPECT THE AREA WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW POP UP LIGHT SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING.

THE AXIS OF BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SLIDE EAST
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT EASING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATER THIS MORNING ON THE NOSE OF 30-35KT
850MB JET...THEN REACHING NORTHCENTRAL NEW YORK BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH WITH
FORECAST SBCAPES GENERALLY RUNNING BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG COMBINED
WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -2C TO -3C. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR HAS
ALSO INCREASED TO 40-45KT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...MAKING THE CHANCES OF A FEW STORMS REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS EVEN BETTER. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET NEARING THE REGION. KEY FACTOR STILL APPEARS TO BE THE AMOUNT OF
SURFACE HEATING THAT TAKES PLACE BEFORE FROPA...I.E. WILL CLOUD
COVER MOVE IN TOO EARLY AND LIMIT HEATING...AND THUS THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY. BETTER SURFACE HEAT LOOKS MORE LIKELY NOW AS THE FRONT
APPEARS TO BE MOVING A BIT SLOWER TAKING A LOOK AT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE PACKAGE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM. AREAS FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIER NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND NORTH COUNTRY
HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING THE MOST SUNSHINE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO THESE LOOK TO BE THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR STRONGER
STORMS. THESE AREAS ARE ALSO OUTLINED BY A SLIGHT RISK (15%) AREA
FROM SPC...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA UNDER A 5% RISK. TO
ADD...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7"-1.8" OUT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY OFFERS THE RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
ALL THESE FACTORS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION...IT APPEARS THERE WILL
BE SOME STRONG STORMS...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS. MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
WARM DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...BUT EVEN HERE THINGS WILL DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY STARTS TO BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED INTO
EASTERN QUEBEC WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE INCREASE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
MORNING. DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO ALONG A
CONVERGENCE ZONE RUNNING FROM THE NIAGARA PENINSULA TO NEAR
ROCHESTER. THIS MAY YIELD A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN IN THESE AREAS FOR
THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +12C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND
80 AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS
WILL PROVIDE MORE DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE
TIME. EXPECT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COOL OR DRY. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 ON THE LAKE PLAINS TO AROUND 50 IN THE COOLEST
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE THICKER CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO +14C TO +16C
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS
UP IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES.
ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BRING SOME
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. A WARMER AIRMASS AND A MIXING BREEZE
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE WITH UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG
HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE VERY CHANGEABLE WITH ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS
OF THE YEAR ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE
WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO JAMES BAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL CAPTURE AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ WITH ORIGINS
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS EML PLUME WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS
TO SOAR TO AROUND +18C TO +19C. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S IN MANY AREAS...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS LIKELY TO BE
IN THE GENESEE VALLEY. THE EML PLUME WILL PROVIDE A STRONG CAP IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND SHOULD HOLD CONVECTION AT BAY UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT AND TROUGH APPROACH AND
AID IN ERODING THE MID LEVEL CAP.

FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE ACTIVE WITH A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS QUEBEC...ALTHOUGH A
TRAILING RIBBON OF STRONGER FLOW IN THE 900-700MB LAYER WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO ORGANIZE A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF ON TIMING...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO LOW LIKELY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW...WITH THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WOULD HOLD
UP THE FRONT SOMEWHAT AND ALSO FORCE IT TO BECOME MORE ANABATIC IN
NATURE WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
GFS HAS A FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SATURDAY DRY. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH A HEDGE TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. IN EITHER CASE IT WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTHEAST OF
THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THEIR COOLEST ON SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
60S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. AIRMASS
MODERATION WILL BEGIN BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS HAVE FORMED ACROSS KBUF AND KART...WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR
CIGS AT KROC. IFR CIGS HAVE FORMED AT KJHW AS EXPECTED. VERY MOIST
LOW LEVELS ARE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO THE LOW CIGS. EXPECT ALL
AREAS TO BECOME VFR MID TO LATE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT WITH
DIURNAL HEATING.

REGIONAL RADARS AT 12Z THIS MORNING SHOWING JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES...WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH MID MORNING. AFTER
THAT...EXPECT THE AREA WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW POP UP LIGHT SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EASE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. COUPLED WITH INCREASING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME OF THESE POTENTIALLY BRINGING BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY ON LAKE ERIE WHERE WINDS AND WAVES WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN AT
OR JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...SO HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT SCA FOR LAKE ERIE
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL ALSO PRODUCE A ROUND
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...OF WHICH A FEW COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE BRINGING A RETURN TO
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM







000
FXUS61 KBUF 021209
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
809 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND BRING A RETURN TO DRIER AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS AT 12Z THIS MORNING SHOWING JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES...WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH MID MORNING. AFTER
THAT...EXPECT THE AREA WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW POP UP LIGHT SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING.

THE AXIS OF BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SLIDE EAST
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT EASING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATER THIS MORNING ON THE NOSE OF 30-35KT
850MB JET...THEN REACHING NORTHCENTRAL NEW YORK BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH WITH
FORECAST SBCAPES GENERALLY RUNNING BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG COMBINED
WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -2C TO -3C. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR HAS
ALSO INCREASED TO 40-45KT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...MAKING THE CHANCES OF A FEW STORMS REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS EVEN BETTER. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET NEARING THE REGION. KEY FACTOR STILL APPEARS TO BE THE AMOUNT OF
SURFACE HEATING THAT TAKES PLACE BEFORE FROPA...I.E. WILL CLOUD
COVER MOVE IN TOO EARLY AND LIMIT HEATING...AND THUS THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY. BETTER SURFACE HEAT LOOKS MORE LIKELY NOW AS THE FRONT
APPEARS TO BE MOVING A BIT SLOWER TAKING A LOOK AT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE PACKAGE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM. AREAS FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIER NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND NORTH COUNTRY
HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING THE MOST SUNSHINE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO THESE LOOK TO BE THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR STRONGER
STORMS. THESE AREAS ARE ALSO OUTLINED BY A SLIGHT RISK (15%) AREA
FROM SPC...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA UNDER A 5% RISK. TO
ADD...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7"-1.8" OUT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY OFFERS THE RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
ALL THESE FACTORS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION...IT APPEARS THERE WILL
BE SOME STRONG STORMS...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS. MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
WARM DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...BUT EVEN HERE THINGS WILL DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY STARTS TO BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED INTO
EASTERN QUEBEC WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE INCREASE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
MORNING. DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO ALONG A
CONVERGENCE ZONE RUNNING FROM THE NIAGARA PENINSULA TO NEAR
ROCHESTER. THIS MAY YIELD A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN IN THESE AREAS FOR
THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +12C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND
80 AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS
WILL PROVIDE MORE DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE
TIME. EXPECT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COOL OR DRY. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 ON THE LAKE PLAINS TO AROUND 50 IN THE COOLEST
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE THICKER CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO +14C TO +16C
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS
UP IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES.
ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BRING SOME
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. A WARMER AIRMASS AND A MIXING BREEZE
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE WITH UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG
HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE VERY CHANGEABLE WITH ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS
OF THE YEAR ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE
WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO JAMES BAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL CAPTURE AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ WITH ORIGINS
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS EML PLUME WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS
TO SOAR TO AROUND +18C TO +19C. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S IN MANY AREAS...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS LIKELY TO BE
IN THE GENESEE VALLEY. THE EML PLUME WILL PROVIDE A STRONG CAP IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND SHOULD HOLD CONVECTION AT BAY UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT AND TROUGH APPROACH AND
AID IN ERODING THE MID LEVEL CAP.

FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE ACTIVE WITH A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS QUEBEC...ALTHOUGH A
TRAILING RIBBON OF STRONGER FLOW IN THE 900-700MB LAYER WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO ORGANIZE A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF ON TIMING...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO LOW LIKELY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW...WITH THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WOULD HOLD
UP THE FRONT SOMEWHAT AND ALSO FORCE IT TO BECOME MORE ANABATIC IN
NATURE WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
GFS HAS A FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SATURDAY DRY. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH A HEDGE TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. IN EITHER CASE IT WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTHEAST OF
THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THEIR COOLEST ON SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
60S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. AIRMASS
MODERATION WILL BEGIN BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS HAVE FORMED ACROSS KBUF AND KART...WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR
CIGS AT KROC. IFR CIGS HAVE FORMED AT KJHW AS EXPECTED. VERY MOIST
LOW LEVELS ARE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO THE LOW CIGS. EXPECT ALL
AREAS TO BECOME VFR MID TO LATE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT WITH
DIURNAL HEATING.

REGIONAL RADARS AT 12Z THIS MORNING SHOWING JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES...WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH MID MORNING. AFTER
THAT...EXPECT THE AREA WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW POP UP LIGHT SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EASE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. COUPLED WITH INCREASING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME OF THESE POTENTIALLY BRINGING BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY ON LAKE ERIE WHERE WINDS AND WAVES WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN AT
OR JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...SO HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT SCA FOR LAKE ERIE
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL ALSO PRODUCE A ROUND
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...OF WHICH A FEW COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE BRINGING A RETURN TO
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 021157
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
757 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN CROSSES THE
TRI-STATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA IT WILL BE
PATCHY...HOWEVER ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS...THE FOG MAY BE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1 MILE OR LESS

OTHERWISE...CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS A CHALLENGING ONE.
WHILE A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND REMAIN OVER MAINLY
WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES...APPEARS SHOULD HAVE A WEAK CAP DEVELOP
AROUND 650 HPA. SO EVEN WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE FORECAST...THE
WEAK CAP COUPLED WITH BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PROGGED TO OUR N...AND
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR 20 KT OR LESS UNTIL MAYBE VERY LATE IN THE
DAY OVER FAR W ZONES AS LOW-MID LEVEL JET APPROACHES THERE.
APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION IS OVER AREAS N/W OF NYC
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW-MID LEVEL JET.

GIVEN ABOVE...FEEL THAT MOST LIKELY CAP HOLDS ON OVER THE SE 2/3
OF THE CWA...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THERE. HAVE CHANCE
POPS BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL
BE MAINLY OF THE PULSE VARIETY...WITH SOME MULTI-CELLULAR
STRUCTURES POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY ORANGE COUNTY
WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW-MID LEVEL JETS. BASED ON THIS FEEL SEVERE
THREAT IS MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. SHOULD SEE VALUES AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL -
FROM AROUND 90 TO THE MID 90S INLAND/NYC HEAT ISLAND...AND MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER
90S ACROSS URBAN NE NJ AND NYC THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FALL
SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 80-90 KT 300 HPA
JET...PASSING OF STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL JETS IN THE
EVENING...AND THE AREA UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS...COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 2 INCHES...THEN HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM THIS EVENING. REFER TO HYDROLOGY
SECTION OF THE AFD FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

HOWEVER...WILL BE WORKING AGAINST DIMINISH CAPE WITH THE LOSS OF
SOLAR HEATING...WITH BEST DYNAMICS PASSING TO THE N...BELIEVE THAT
ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...AND IT WAS NOT ALL THAT HIGH TO BEGIN WITH.

700-500 HPA SHORTWAVES LIFTS TO THE N/E OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR THINGS TO DRY OUT
LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVES.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM
850-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS SUNNY AND DRY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT HUMIDITY LEVELS TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING OFFSHORE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE
MODELS WANT TO LINGER SOME PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...DO NOT WANT TO RULE THIS OUT...SO WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED RIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS.  TEMPERATURES THEN FALL
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN AREAS THROUGH 14Z WITH
FOG/STRATUS IN PLACE...WITH ALL AREAS THEREAFTER VFR FOR THE PERIOD.

LIGHT AND VRB WINDS THRU 14/15Z...BCMG SLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WINDS GENERALLY 8-12 KTS...WITH OCNL GUSTS MIXING IN
FOR THE AFTN. WIND SHIFT OCCURS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT...BCMG NW LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

LOW CONFIDENCE OF PCPN OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTN AND DURING THE
EVENING. IF ANY PCPN DOES FORM...WOULD BE NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO
SITES. INCLUDED AS TEMPO FOR NOW...THOUGH COULD BE EVEN OVERDONE
IN TAFS FOR TIMING. BEST CHC FOR PCPN WOULD BE 20-00Z FOR
KSWF...THEN 02-08Z FOR NYC METRO SITES. GENERALLY EXPECTING
SHOWERS WITH LOW END CONFIDENCE OF TSTM.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 17-19Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF PCPN THIS
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD..PSBL
MVFR VIS WITH PCPN. PCPN ISOLATED IN NATURE LATE THIS EVENING.
OCNL GUSTS PSBL THIS AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD..PSBL
MVFR VIS WITH PCPN. PCPN ISOLATED IN NATURE LATE THIS EVENING.
OCNL GUSTS PSBL THIS AFTN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD..PSBL
MVFR VIS WITH PCPN. PCPN ISOLATED-SCT IN NATURE LATE THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD..PSBL
MVFR VIS WITH PCPN. PCPN ISOLATED-SCT IN NATURE LATE THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY 14Z. OCNL
GUSTS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...GENERALLY AFTR
18/19Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY PCPN THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH FRI...
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT...SUB-VFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FOG HAS DEVELOPED ON THE EASTERN WATERS THIS MORNING...REDUCING
VSBYS TO 1 MILE OR LESS. HAVE PUT UP A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS UNTIL 10 AM. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY
THEN.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT
ON ANZ-350 TONIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...AND RESIDUAL 1-2 FT SWELLS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...SO DO NOT REFLECT IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SEAS SHOULD COME DOWN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SPOTTY SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY OVER AREAS N/W OF NYC...COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LESS THAN
0.2 INCHES OF BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340-
     350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...BC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...BC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...BC/MALOIT









000
FXUS61 KOKX 021157
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
757 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN CROSSES THE
TRI-STATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA IT WILL BE
PATCHY...HOWEVER ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS...THE FOG MAY BE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1 MILE OR LESS

OTHERWISE...CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS A CHALLENGING ONE.
WHILE A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND REMAIN OVER MAINLY
WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES...APPEARS SHOULD HAVE A WEAK CAP DEVELOP
AROUND 650 HPA. SO EVEN WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE FORECAST...THE
WEAK CAP COUPLED WITH BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PROGGED TO OUR N...AND
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR 20 KT OR LESS UNTIL MAYBE VERY LATE IN THE
DAY OVER FAR W ZONES AS LOW-MID LEVEL JET APPROACHES THERE.
APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION IS OVER AREAS N/W OF NYC
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW-MID LEVEL JET.

GIVEN ABOVE...FEEL THAT MOST LIKELY CAP HOLDS ON OVER THE SE 2/3
OF THE CWA...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THERE. HAVE CHANCE
POPS BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL
BE MAINLY OF THE PULSE VARIETY...WITH SOME MULTI-CELLULAR
STRUCTURES POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY ORANGE COUNTY
WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW-MID LEVEL JETS. BASED ON THIS FEEL SEVERE
THREAT IS MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. SHOULD SEE VALUES AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL -
FROM AROUND 90 TO THE MID 90S INLAND/NYC HEAT ISLAND...AND MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER
90S ACROSS URBAN NE NJ AND NYC THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FALL
SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 80-90 KT 300 HPA
JET...PASSING OF STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL JETS IN THE
EVENING...AND THE AREA UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS...COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 2 INCHES...THEN HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM THIS EVENING. REFER TO HYDROLOGY
SECTION OF THE AFD FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

HOWEVER...WILL BE WORKING AGAINST DIMINISH CAPE WITH THE LOSS OF
SOLAR HEATING...WITH BEST DYNAMICS PASSING TO THE N...BELIEVE THAT
ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...AND IT WAS NOT ALL THAT HIGH TO BEGIN WITH.

700-500 HPA SHORTWAVES LIFTS TO THE N/E OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR THINGS TO DRY OUT
LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVES.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM
850-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS SUNNY AND DRY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT HUMIDITY LEVELS TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING OFFSHORE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE
MODELS WANT TO LINGER SOME PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...DO NOT WANT TO RULE THIS OUT...SO WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED RIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS.  TEMPERATURES THEN FALL
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN AREAS THROUGH 14Z WITH
FOG/STRATUS IN PLACE...WITH ALL AREAS THEREAFTER VFR FOR THE PERIOD.

LIGHT AND VRB WINDS THRU 14/15Z...BCMG SLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WINDS GENERALLY 8-12 KTS...WITH OCNL GUSTS MIXING IN
FOR THE AFTN. WIND SHIFT OCCURS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT...BCMG NW LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

LOW CONFIDENCE OF PCPN OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTN AND DURING THE
EVENING. IF ANY PCPN DOES FORM...WOULD BE NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO
SITES. INCLUDED AS TEMPO FOR NOW...THOUGH COULD BE EVEN OVERDONE
IN TAFS FOR TIMING. BEST CHC FOR PCPN WOULD BE 20-00Z FOR
KSWF...THEN 02-08Z FOR NYC METRO SITES. GENERALLY EXPECTING
SHOWERS WITH LOW END CONFIDENCE OF TSTM.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 17-19Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF PCPN THIS
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD..PSBL
MVFR VIS WITH PCPN. PCPN ISOLATED IN NATURE LATE THIS EVENING.
OCNL GUSTS PSBL THIS AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD..PSBL
MVFR VIS WITH PCPN. PCPN ISOLATED IN NATURE LATE THIS EVENING.
OCNL GUSTS PSBL THIS AFTN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD..PSBL
MVFR VIS WITH PCPN. PCPN ISOLATED-SCT IN NATURE LATE THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD..PSBL
MVFR VIS WITH PCPN. PCPN ISOLATED-SCT IN NATURE LATE THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY 14Z. OCNL
GUSTS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...GENERALLY AFTR
18/19Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY PCPN THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH FRI...
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT...SUB-VFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FOG HAS DEVELOPED ON THE EASTERN WATERS THIS MORNING...REDUCING
VSBYS TO 1 MILE OR LESS. HAVE PUT UP A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS UNTIL 10 AM. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY
THEN.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT
ON ANZ-350 TONIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...AND RESIDUAL 1-2 FT SWELLS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...SO DO NOT REFLECT IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SEAS SHOULD COME DOWN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SPOTTY SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY OVER AREAS N/W OF NYC...COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LESS THAN
0.2 INCHES OF BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340-
     350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...BC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...BC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...BC/MALOIT









000
FXUS61 KOKX 021157
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
757 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN CROSSES THE
TRI-STATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA IT WILL BE
PATCHY...HOWEVER ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS...THE FOG MAY BE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1 MILE OR LESS

OTHERWISE...CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS A CHALLENGING ONE.
WHILE A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND REMAIN OVER MAINLY
WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES...APPEARS SHOULD HAVE A WEAK CAP DEVELOP
AROUND 650 HPA. SO EVEN WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE FORECAST...THE
WEAK CAP COUPLED WITH BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PROGGED TO OUR N...AND
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR 20 KT OR LESS UNTIL MAYBE VERY LATE IN THE
DAY OVER FAR W ZONES AS LOW-MID LEVEL JET APPROACHES THERE.
APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION IS OVER AREAS N/W OF NYC
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW-MID LEVEL JET.

GIVEN ABOVE...FEEL THAT MOST LIKELY CAP HOLDS ON OVER THE SE 2/3
OF THE CWA...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THERE. HAVE CHANCE
POPS BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL
BE MAINLY OF THE PULSE VARIETY...WITH SOME MULTI-CELLULAR
STRUCTURES POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY ORANGE COUNTY
WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW-MID LEVEL JETS. BASED ON THIS FEEL SEVERE
THREAT IS MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. SHOULD SEE VALUES AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL -
FROM AROUND 90 TO THE MID 90S INLAND/NYC HEAT ISLAND...AND MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER
90S ACROSS URBAN NE NJ AND NYC THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FALL
SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 80-90 KT 300 HPA
JET...PASSING OF STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL JETS IN THE
EVENING...AND THE AREA UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS...COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 2 INCHES...THEN HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM THIS EVENING. REFER TO HYDROLOGY
SECTION OF THE AFD FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

HOWEVER...WILL BE WORKING AGAINST DIMINISH CAPE WITH THE LOSS OF
SOLAR HEATING...WITH BEST DYNAMICS PASSING TO THE N...BELIEVE THAT
ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...AND IT WAS NOT ALL THAT HIGH TO BEGIN WITH.

700-500 HPA SHORTWAVES LIFTS TO THE N/E OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR THINGS TO DRY OUT
LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVES.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM
850-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS SUNNY AND DRY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT HUMIDITY LEVELS TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING OFFSHORE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE
MODELS WANT TO LINGER SOME PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...DO NOT WANT TO RULE THIS OUT...SO WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED RIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS.  TEMPERATURES THEN FALL
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN AREAS THROUGH 14Z WITH
FOG/STRATUS IN PLACE...WITH ALL AREAS THEREAFTER VFR FOR THE PERIOD.

LIGHT AND VRB WINDS THRU 14/15Z...BCMG SLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WINDS GENERALLY 8-12 KTS...WITH OCNL GUSTS MIXING IN
FOR THE AFTN. WIND SHIFT OCCURS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT...BCMG NW LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

LOW CONFIDENCE OF PCPN OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTN AND DURING THE
EVENING. IF ANY PCPN DOES FORM...WOULD BE NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO
SITES. INCLUDED AS TEMPO FOR NOW...THOUGH COULD BE EVEN OVERDONE
IN TAFS FOR TIMING. BEST CHC FOR PCPN WOULD BE 20-00Z FOR
KSWF...THEN 02-08Z FOR NYC METRO SITES. GENERALLY EXPECTING
SHOWERS WITH LOW END CONFIDENCE OF TSTM.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 17-19Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF PCPN THIS
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD..PSBL
MVFR VIS WITH PCPN. PCPN ISOLATED IN NATURE LATE THIS EVENING.
OCNL GUSTS PSBL THIS AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD..PSBL
MVFR VIS WITH PCPN. PCPN ISOLATED IN NATURE LATE THIS EVENING.
OCNL GUSTS PSBL THIS AFTN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD..PSBL
MVFR VIS WITH PCPN. PCPN ISOLATED-SCT IN NATURE LATE THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD..PSBL
MVFR VIS WITH PCPN. PCPN ISOLATED-SCT IN NATURE LATE THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY 14Z. OCNL
GUSTS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...GENERALLY AFTR
18/19Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY PCPN THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH FRI...
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT...SUB-VFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FOG HAS DEVELOPED ON THE EASTERN WATERS THIS MORNING...REDUCING
VSBYS TO 1 MILE OR LESS. HAVE PUT UP A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS UNTIL 10 AM. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY
THEN.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT
ON ANZ-350 TONIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...AND RESIDUAL 1-2 FT SWELLS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...SO DO NOT REFLECT IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SEAS SHOULD COME DOWN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SPOTTY SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY OVER AREAS N/W OF NYC...COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LESS THAN
0.2 INCHES OF BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340-
     350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...BC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...BC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...BC/MALOIT









000
FXUS61 KOKX 021157
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
757 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN CROSSES THE
TRI-STATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA IT WILL BE
PATCHY...HOWEVER ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS...THE FOG MAY BE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1 MILE OR LESS

OTHERWISE...CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS A CHALLENGING ONE.
WHILE A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND REMAIN OVER MAINLY
WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES...APPEARS SHOULD HAVE A WEAK CAP DEVELOP
AROUND 650 HPA. SO EVEN WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE FORECAST...THE
WEAK CAP COUPLED WITH BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PROGGED TO OUR N...AND
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR 20 KT OR LESS UNTIL MAYBE VERY LATE IN THE
DAY OVER FAR W ZONES AS LOW-MID LEVEL JET APPROACHES THERE.
APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION IS OVER AREAS N/W OF NYC
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW-MID LEVEL JET.

GIVEN ABOVE...FEEL THAT MOST LIKELY CAP HOLDS ON OVER THE SE 2/3
OF THE CWA...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THERE. HAVE CHANCE
POPS BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL
BE MAINLY OF THE PULSE VARIETY...WITH SOME MULTI-CELLULAR
STRUCTURES POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY ORANGE COUNTY
WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW-MID LEVEL JETS. BASED ON THIS FEEL SEVERE
THREAT IS MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. SHOULD SEE VALUES AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL -
FROM AROUND 90 TO THE MID 90S INLAND/NYC HEAT ISLAND...AND MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER
90S ACROSS URBAN NE NJ AND NYC THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FALL
SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 80-90 KT 300 HPA
JET...PASSING OF STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL JETS IN THE
EVENING...AND THE AREA UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS...COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 2 INCHES...THEN HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM THIS EVENING. REFER TO HYDROLOGY
SECTION OF THE AFD FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

HOWEVER...WILL BE WORKING AGAINST DIMINISH CAPE WITH THE LOSS OF
SOLAR HEATING...WITH BEST DYNAMICS PASSING TO THE N...BELIEVE THAT
ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...AND IT WAS NOT ALL THAT HIGH TO BEGIN WITH.

700-500 HPA SHORTWAVES LIFTS TO THE N/E OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR THINGS TO DRY OUT
LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVES.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM
850-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS SUNNY AND DRY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT HUMIDITY LEVELS TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING OFFSHORE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE
MODELS WANT TO LINGER SOME PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...DO NOT WANT TO RULE THIS OUT...SO WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED RIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS.  TEMPERATURES THEN FALL
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN AREAS THROUGH 14Z WITH
FOG/STRATUS IN PLACE...WITH ALL AREAS THEREAFTER VFR FOR THE PERIOD.

LIGHT AND VRB WINDS THRU 14/15Z...BCMG SLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WINDS GENERALLY 8-12 KTS...WITH OCNL GUSTS MIXING IN
FOR THE AFTN. WIND SHIFT OCCURS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT...BCMG NW LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

LOW CONFIDENCE OF PCPN OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTN AND DURING THE
EVENING. IF ANY PCPN DOES FORM...WOULD BE NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO
SITES. INCLUDED AS TEMPO FOR NOW...THOUGH COULD BE EVEN OVERDONE
IN TAFS FOR TIMING. BEST CHC FOR PCPN WOULD BE 20-00Z FOR
KSWF...THEN 02-08Z FOR NYC METRO SITES. GENERALLY EXPECTING
SHOWERS WITH LOW END CONFIDENCE OF TSTM.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 17-19Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF PCPN THIS
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD..PSBL
MVFR VIS WITH PCPN. PCPN ISOLATED IN NATURE LATE THIS EVENING.
OCNL GUSTS PSBL THIS AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD..PSBL
MVFR VIS WITH PCPN. PCPN ISOLATED IN NATURE LATE THIS EVENING.
OCNL GUSTS PSBL THIS AFTN.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD..PSBL
MVFR VIS WITH PCPN. PCPN ISOLATED-SCT IN NATURE LATE THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD..PSBL
MVFR VIS WITH PCPN. PCPN ISOLATED-SCT IN NATURE LATE THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY 14Z. OCNL
GUSTS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...GENERALLY AFTR
18/19Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY PCPN THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH FRI...
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT...SUB-VFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FOG HAS DEVELOPED ON THE EASTERN WATERS THIS MORNING...REDUCING
VSBYS TO 1 MILE OR LESS. HAVE PUT UP A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS UNTIL 10 AM. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY
THEN.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT
ON ANZ-350 TONIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...AND RESIDUAL 1-2 FT SWELLS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...SO DO NOT REFLECT IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SEAS SHOULD COME DOWN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SPOTTY SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY OVER AREAS N/W OF NYC...COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LESS THAN
0.2 INCHES OF BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340-
     350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...BC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...BC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...BC/MALOIT









000
FXUS61 KALY 021146
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
746 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...RADARS NOW SHOWING A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS
WORKING INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD JUST BE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR FINE TUNING OF THE HOURLY
GRIDS...OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS THINKING APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON
TRACK.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
IN OUTLYING AREAS...TO LOWER 70S RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITIES.

WE LOSE THE FOG LATER THIS FOG AND SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...MIXED
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...SUNSHINE MIGHT ACTUALLY INCREASE MIDDAY. INITIALLY WE ARE
"CAPPED" MEANING THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WHICH
WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION...OR AT THE VERY LEAST...PREVENT THE CU
FROM GETTING TOO TALL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
AREAS WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR A POP UP SHOWER IN
THOSE AREAS BEFORE NOON.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 90S...JUST SHY OF WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. MOST
OTHER VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...WILL SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HILLTOWNS WILL HAVE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG/STRATUS AT KGFL/KPSF WILL BE GONE BY 13Z...
OTHERWISE THE TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH MAY GET CLOSE TO
TERMINALS...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED AT KALB BTWN 12Z-16Z.


BEGINNING 21Z TO 23Z HAVE FORECASTED A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE
THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT
4 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 021146
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
746 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...RADARS NOW SHOWING A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS
WORKING INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD JUST BE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR FINE TUNING OF THE HOURLY
GRIDS...OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS THINKING APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON
TRACK.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
IN OUTLYING AREAS...TO LOWER 70S RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITIES.

WE LOSE THE FOG LATER THIS FOG AND SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...MIXED
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...SUNSHINE MIGHT ACTUALLY INCREASE MIDDAY. INITIALLY WE ARE
"CAPPED" MEANING THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WHICH
WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION...OR AT THE VERY LEAST...PREVENT THE CU
FROM GETTING TOO TALL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
AREAS WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR A POP UP SHOWER IN
THOSE AREAS BEFORE NOON.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 90S...JUST SHY OF WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. MOST
OTHER VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...WILL SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HILLTOWNS WILL HAVE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG/STRATUS AT KGFL/KPSF WILL BE GONE BY 13Z...
OTHERWISE THE TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH MAY GET CLOSE TO
TERMINALS...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED AT KALB BTWN 12Z-16Z.


BEGINNING 21Z TO 23Z HAVE FORECASTED A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE
THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT
4 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 021129
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
729 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 713 AM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO REAL
BIG CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. STILL LOOKING FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THIS FRONT WILL REACH VERMONT BY EARLY EVENING. THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
AS THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE
TOP OF THE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED
AND LONGER LIVED...THUS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED
WELL WITH ENHANCED WORDING ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY EXITING MOST OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY DURING THIS PERIOD AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND NOT THE NORTHWEST...COLDER AIR WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. SO EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE
COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA PREDOMINANTLY UNDER
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EASTERN US RIDGE NOSING INTO NEW
ENGLAND EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND BROAD TROUGH ESTABLISHED FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECT FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SURFACE FRONT.
BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS HIT THE UPPER TEENS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
VERY WARM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS...ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY UP A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE.

500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
US TIER STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH BEST UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW
PASSING TO NORTH...SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWS AND BECOMES ORIENTED
MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS
MOVING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE ECMWF HANGS IT UP IN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. HEDGED
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEPT CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY. RIGHT
NOW SATURDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER...
COINCIDING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES
DO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND LOWER HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED EAST...AND HAVE OPTED TO
REMOVE MORNING VCSH FROM TAF SITES TO FOCUS ON AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF
THE BORDER...BUT CHANCES TOO SLIM TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FORECAST
STILL ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY 20-23Z
AND VT 22-01Z TIMEFRAME. VSBY WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR AS STORMS PASS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 021129
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
729 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 713 AM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO REAL
BIG CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. STILL LOOKING FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THIS FRONT WILL REACH VERMONT BY EARLY EVENING. THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
AS THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE
TOP OF THE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED
AND LONGER LIVED...THUS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED
WELL WITH ENHANCED WORDING ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY EXITING MOST OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY DURING THIS PERIOD AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND NOT THE NORTHWEST...COLDER AIR WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. SO EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE
COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA PREDOMINANTLY UNDER
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EASTERN US RIDGE NOSING INTO NEW
ENGLAND EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND BROAD TROUGH ESTABLISHED FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECT FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SURFACE FRONT.
BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS HIT THE UPPER TEENS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
VERY WARM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS...ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY UP A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE.

500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
US TIER STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH BEST UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW
PASSING TO NORTH...SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWS AND BECOMES ORIENTED
MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS
MOVING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE ECMWF HANGS IT UP IN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. HEDGED
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEPT CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY. RIGHT
NOW SATURDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER...
COINCIDING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES
DO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND LOWER HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED EAST...AND HAVE OPTED TO
REMOVE MORNING VCSH FROM TAF SITES TO FOCUS ON AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF
THE BORDER...BUT CHANCES TOO SLIM TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FORECAST
STILL ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY 20-23Z
AND VT 22-01Z TIMEFRAME. VSBY WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR AS STORMS PASS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 021129
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
729 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 713 AM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO REAL
BIG CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. STILL LOOKING FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THIS FRONT WILL REACH VERMONT BY EARLY EVENING. THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
AS THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE
TOP OF THE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED
AND LONGER LIVED...THUS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED
WELL WITH ENHANCED WORDING ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY EXITING MOST OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY DURING THIS PERIOD AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND NOT THE NORTHWEST...COLDER AIR WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. SO EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE
COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA PREDOMINANTLY UNDER
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EASTERN US RIDGE NOSING INTO NEW
ENGLAND EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND BROAD TROUGH ESTABLISHED FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECT FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SURFACE FRONT.
BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS HIT THE UPPER TEENS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
VERY WARM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS...ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY UP A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE.

500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
US TIER STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH BEST UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW
PASSING TO NORTH...SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWS AND BECOMES ORIENTED
MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS
MOVING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE ECMWF HANGS IT UP IN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. HEDGED
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEPT CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY. RIGHT
NOW SATURDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER...
COINCIDING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES
DO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND LOWER HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED EAST...AND HAVE OPTED TO
REMOVE MORNING VCSH FROM TAF SITES TO FOCUS ON AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF
THE BORDER...BUT CHANCES TOO SLIM TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FORECAST
STILL ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY 20-23Z
AND VT 22-01Z TIMEFRAME. VSBY WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR AS STORMS PASS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 021129
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
729 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 713 AM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO REAL
BIG CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. STILL LOOKING FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THIS FRONT WILL REACH VERMONT BY EARLY EVENING. THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
AS THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE
TOP OF THE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED
AND LONGER LIVED...THUS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED
WELL WITH ENHANCED WORDING ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY EXITING MOST OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY DURING THIS PERIOD AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND NOT THE NORTHWEST...COLDER AIR WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. SO EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE
COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA PREDOMINANTLY UNDER
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EASTERN US RIDGE NOSING INTO NEW
ENGLAND EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND BROAD TROUGH ESTABLISHED FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECT FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SURFACE FRONT.
BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS HIT THE UPPER TEENS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
VERY WARM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS...ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY UP A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE.

500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
US TIER STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH BEST UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW
PASSING TO NORTH...SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWS AND BECOMES ORIENTED
MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS
MOVING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE ECMWF HANGS IT UP IN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. HEDGED
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEPT CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY. RIGHT
NOW SATURDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER...
COINCIDING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES
DO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND LOWER HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED EAST...AND HAVE OPTED TO
REMOVE MORNING VCSH FROM TAF SITES TO FOCUS ON AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF
THE BORDER...BUT CHANCES TOO SLIM TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FORECAST
STILL ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY 20-23Z
AND VT 22-01Z TIMEFRAME. VSBY WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR AS STORMS PASS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 021113
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
713 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 713 AM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO REAL
BIG CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. STILL LOOKING FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THIS FRONT WILL REACH VERMONT BY EARLY EVENING. THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
AS THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE
TOP OF THE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED
AND LONGER LIVED...THUS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED
WELL WITH ENHANCED WORDING ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY EXITING MOST OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY DURING THIS PERIOD AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND NOT THE NORTHWEST...COLDER AIR WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. SO EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE
COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA PREDOMINANTLY UNDER
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EASTERN US RIDGE NOSING INTO NEW
ENGLAND EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND BROAD TROUGH ESTABLISHED FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECT FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SURFACE FRONT.
BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS HIT THE UPPER TEENS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
VERY WARM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS...ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY UP A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE.

500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
US TIER STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH BEST UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW
PASSING TO NORTH...SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWS AND BECOMES ORIENTED
MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS
MOVING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE ECMWF HANGS IT UP IN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. HEDGED
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEPT CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY. RIGHT
NOW SATURDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER...
COINCIDING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES
DO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND LOWER HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR. AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. COVERAGE WILL BE HIT OR MISS SO OPTED TO USE
VCSH AND KEEP CONDITIONS VFR AT TAF SITES. SHOWERS TO MOVE WEST TO
EAST...INTO KMSS 12Z...THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 14-15Z...AND OUT OF
VERMONT BY 16-17Z. VFR P6SM AND SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT 20-24Z
TIME FRAME COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG AFTER 06Z.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON








000
FXUS61 KBGM 021053
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
653 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED
BY A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRY
WARM WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. RIGHT NOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR
ELMIRA, AND A FEW MORE OVER THE TUG HILL GIVE US A GOOD IDEA OF
OUR WEATHER THROUGH NOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME BUT MOST WILL REMAIN
DRY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF DETROIT WILL BE THE
TRIGGER FOR A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
18Z.

FOLLOWING THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC/ARW/NMM FOR TIMING, A LINE OR
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR CWA
TOWARD 18Z. IT APPEARS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS FOR THE BULK
OF OUR AREA WILL COME CLOSER TO 21Z AND SHOULD IMPACT A LINE FROM NEAR
UTICA/NORWICH/BINGHAMTON/TOWANDA BACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES.
AFTER 21Z THE LINE SHOULD SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH
NEPA BY 03Z. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE MOST OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDE GOOD MID LEVEL
SHEAR (0-6 KM BULK SHEARS 45+ KTS), WHICH WOULD FAVOR BROKEN OR
SHORT LINES OF CONVECTION MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WHICH IS
PLAYING OUT IN MINIMAL MLCAPES. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER
WITH MLCAPES ABOVE 1,000 J/KG. MEANWHILE THE RUC/ARW/EURO/GFS ALL
SHOW VALUES CLOSER TO 500 J/KG. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SEVERE
THREAT IN THE HWO AND GRIDS WITH GUSTY WIND WORDING, TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY. WE WILL CAREFULLY WATCH THE MESO ANALYSIS THIS
AFTERNOON TO SEE IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A
GREATER CONCERN. LASTLY, WHILE THE STORMS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE
TODAY, PWATS DO BRIEFLY CLIMB TOWARD 2"! WITH THAT IN MIND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. NO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED ASIDE FROM ANY
STORMS MOVING OVER URBAN AREAS, WHERE RAINFALL RATES CAN ALWAYS
POSE A PROBLEM WHEN THEY GO ABOVE 1.5 INCHES IN AN HOUR.

CONVECTION DIES DOWN BY 03Z, WITH DRIER WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST AND KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET DURING
THE PERIOD. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE WARM AIR, AS A BUBBLE OF
VERY WARM AIR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SPREADS EAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE AFTER A BRIEF COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WEDNESDAY, WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPS NEAR 80, WE WILL REBOUND WELL
INTO THE 80S AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN HOTTER AIR IS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. READ MORE BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH WILL FEATURE A WEEKEND
FROPA. MAX TEMPS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON FRI WILL GET WELL INTO THE
8OS...WITH HIGHS GNRLY IN THE 65-70 RNG BY SUN/MON. BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FNT ON SAT...WITH COOLER TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER XPCTD FOR SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TUE UPDATE... PATCHY MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL THROUGH
13-14Z...WITH SOME LWR CIGS...AND ALSO BR/-SHRA OUT THERE.

FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL...UNDERNEATH A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD. BY LATE AFTN...THOUGH...IT APPEARS THAT A LN OF SHWRS/TSTMS
WILL MARCH ACRS THE RGN...ALG AND JUST AHD OF A COLD FRNTL BNDRY.
FOR NOW...WE`VE PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA WITHIN A NARROW
2-HR TIME FRAME AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

THIS EVE...BEHIND THE COLD FRNT...IT APPEARS THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS ONCE AGN...SPCLY ACRS CNTRL/ERN NY. WE`VE
INTRODUCED THIS PSBLTY AT KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM ONLY. SOME DRYING IS
EXPECTED LTR TNT...WITH MAINLY VFR RETURNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KAH/MLJ






000
FXUS61 KBGM 021053
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
653 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED
BY A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRY
WARM WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. RIGHT NOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR
ELMIRA, AND A FEW MORE OVER THE TUG HILL GIVE US A GOOD IDEA OF
OUR WEATHER THROUGH NOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME BUT MOST WILL REMAIN
DRY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF DETROIT WILL BE THE
TRIGGER FOR A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
18Z.

FOLLOWING THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC/ARW/NMM FOR TIMING, A LINE OR
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR CWA
TOWARD 18Z. IT APPEARS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS FOR THE BULK
OF OUR AREA WILL COME CLOSER TO 21Z AND SHOULD IMPACT A LINE FROM NEAR
UTICA/NORWICH/BINGHAMTON/TOWANDA BACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES.
AFTER 21Z THE LINE SHOULD SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH
NEPA BY 03Z. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE MOST OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDE GOOD MID LEVEL
SHEAR (0-6 KM BULK SHEARS 45+ KTS), WHICH WOULD FAVOR BROKEN OR
SHORT LINES OF CONVECTION MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WHICH IS
PLAYING OUT IN MINIMAL MLCAPES. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER
WITH MLCAPES ABOVE 1,000 J/KG. MEANWHILE THE RUC/ARW/EURO/GFS ALL
SHOW VALUES CLOSER TO 500 J/KG. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SEVERE
THREAT IN THE HWO AND GRIDS WITH GUSTY WIND WORDING, TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY. WE WILL CAREFULLY WATCH THE MESO ANALYSIS THIS
AFTERNOON TO SEE IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A
GREATER CONCERN. LASTLY, WHILE THE STORMS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE
TODAY, PWATS DO BRIEFLY CLIMB TOWARD 2"! WITH THAT IN MIND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. NO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED ASIDE FROM ANY
STORMS MOVING OVER URBAN AREAS, WHERE RAINFALL RATES CAN ALWAYS
POSE A PROBLEM WHEN THEY GO ABOVE 1.5 INCHES IN AN HOUR.

CONVECTION DIES DOWN BY 03Z, WITH DRIER WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST AND KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET DURING
THE PERIOD. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE WARM AIR, AS A BUBBLE OF
VERY WARM AIR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SPREADS EAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE AFTER A BRIEF COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WEDNESDAY, WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPS NEAR 80, WE WILL REBOUND WELL
INTO THE 80S AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN HOTTER AIR IS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. READ MORE BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH WILL FEATURE A WEEKEND
FROPA. MAX TEMPS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON FRI WILL GET WELL INTO THE
8OS...WITH HIGHS GNRLY IN THE 65-70 RNG BY SUN/MON. BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FNT ON SAT...WITH COOLER TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER XPCTD FOR SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TUE UPDATE... PATCHY MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL THROUGH
13-14Z...WITH SOME LWR CIGS...AND ALSO BR/-SHRA OUT THERE.

FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL...UNDERNEATH A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD. BY LATE AFTN...THOUGH...IT APPEARS THAT A LN OF SHWRS/TSTMS
WILL MARCH ACRS THE RGN...ALG AND JUST AHD OF A COLD FRNTL BNDRY.
FOR NOW...WE`VE PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA WITHIN A NARROW
2-HR TIME FRAME AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

THIS EVE...BEHIND THE COLD FRNT...IT APPEARS THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS ONCE AGN...SPCLY ACRS CNTRL/ERN NY. WE`VE
INTRODUCED THIS PSBLTY AT KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM ONLY. SOME DRYING IS
EXPECTED LTR TNT...WITH MAINLY VFR RETURNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KAH/MLJ







000
FXUS61 KALY 021043
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...RADARS NOW SHOWING A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS
WORKING INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD JUST BE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR FINE TUNING OF THE HOURLY
GRIDS...OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS THINKING APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON
TRACK.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
IN OUTLYING AREAS...TO LOWER 70S RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITIES.

WE LOSE THE FOG LATER THIS FOG AND SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...MIXED
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...SUNSHINE MIGHT ACTUALLY INCREASE MIDDAY. INITIALLY WE ARE
"CAPPED" MEANING THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WHICH
WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION...OR AT THE VERY LEAST...PREVENT THE CU
FROM GETTING TOO TALL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
AREAS WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR A POP UP SHOWER IN
THOSE AREAS BEFORE NOON.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 90S...JUST SHY OF WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. MOST
OTHER VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...WILL SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HILLTOWNS WILL HAVE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS BEEN
SLOW TO FORM. WILL ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL MVFR FOG AT KPOU/KALB
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT KGFL WILL FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR
FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. AT KPSF IFR FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED...BUT IT IS NOT PERSISTENT...WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR FOG CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z ALL TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. BEGINNING 20Z TO 22Z
HAVE FORECAST A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH OR CALM THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 4 TO 8
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 021043
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...RADARS NOW SHOWING A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS
WORKING INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD JUST BE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR FINE TUNING OF THE HOURLY
GRIDS...OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS THINKING APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON
TRACK.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
IN OUTLYING AREAS...TO LOWER 70S RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITIES.

WE LOSE THE FOG LATER THIS FOG AND SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...MIXED
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...SUNSHINE MIGHT ACTUALLY INCREASE MIDDAY. INITIALLY WE ARE
"CAPPED" MEANING THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WHICH
WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION...OR AT THE VERY LEAST...PREVENT THE CU
FROM GETTING TOO TALL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
AREAS WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR A POP UP SHOWER IN
THOSE AREAS BEFORE NOON.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 90S...JUST SHY OF WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. MOST
OTHER VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...WILL SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HILLTOWNS WILL HAVE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS BEEN
SLOW TO FORM. WILL ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL MVFR FOG AT KPOU/KALB
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT KGFL WILL FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR
FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. AT KPSF IFR FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED...BUT IT IS NOT PERSISTENT...WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR FOG CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z ALL TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. BEGINNING 20Z TO 22Z
HAVE FORECAST A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH OR CALM THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 4 TO 8
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 021043
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...RADARS NOW SHOWING A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS
WORKING INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD JUST BE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR FINE TUNING OF THE HOURLY
GRIDS...OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS THINKING APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON
TRACK.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
IN OUTLYING AREAS...TO LOWER 70S RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITIES.

WE LOSE THE FOG LATER THIS FOG AND SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...MIXED
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...SUNSHINE MIGHT ACTUALLY INCREASE MIDDAY. INITIALLY WE ARE
"CAPPED" MEANING THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WHICH
WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION...OR AT THE VERY LEAST...PREVENT THE CU
FROM GETTING TOO TALL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
AREAS WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR A POP UP SHOWER IN
THOSE AREAS BEFORE NOON.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 90S...JUST SHY OF WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. MOST
OTHER VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...WILL SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HILLTOWNS WILL HAVE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS BEEN
SLOW TO FORM. WILL ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL MVFR FOG AT KPOU/KALB
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT KGFL WILL FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR
FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. AT KPSF IFR FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED...BUT IT IS NOT PERSISTENT...WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR FOG CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z ALL TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. BEGINNING 20Z TO 22Z
HAVE FORECAST A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH OR CALM THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 4 TO 8
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 021043
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...RADARS NOW SHOWING A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS
WORKING INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD JUST BE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR FINE TUNING OF THE HOURLY
GRIDS...OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS THINKING APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON
TRACK.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
IN OUTLYING AREAS...TO LOWER 70S RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITIES.

WE LOSE THE FOG LATER THIS FOG AND SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...MIXED
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...SUNSHINE MIGHT ACTUALLY INCREASE MIDDAY. INITIALLY WE ARE
"CAPPED" MEANING THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WHICH
WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION...OR AT THE VERY LEAST...PREVENT THE CU
FROM GETTING TOO TALL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
AREAS WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR A POP UP SHOWER IN
THOSE AREAS BEFORE NOON.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 90S...JUST SHY OF WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. MOST
OTHER VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...WILL SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HILLTOWNS WILL HAVE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS BEEN
SLOW TO FORM. WILL ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL MVFR FOG AT KPOU/KALB
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT KGFL WILL FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR
FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. AT KPSF IFR FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED...BUT IT IS NOT PERSISTENT...WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR FOG CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z ALL TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. BEGINNING 20Z TO 22Z
HAVE FORECAST A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH OR CALM THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 4 TO 8
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 020932
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
532 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND BRING A RETURN TO DRIER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
COMING IN OFF LAKE ERIE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF BUFFALO...WITH QUIET
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

THE AXIS OF BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SLIDE EAST FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT EASING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATER THIS MORNING ON THE NOSE OF 30-35KT
850MB JET...THEN REACHING NORTHCENTRAL NEW YORK BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH WITH
FORECAST SBCAPES GENERALLY RUNNING BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG COMBINED
WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -2C TO -3C. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR HAS
ALSO INCREASED TO 40-45KT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...MAKING THE CHANCES OF A FEW STORMS REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS EVEN BETTER. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET NEARING THE REGION. KEY FACTOR STILL APPEARS TO BE THE AMOUNT OF
SURFACE HEATING THAT TAKES PLACE BEFORE FROPA...I.E. WILL CLOUD
COVER MOVE IN TOO EARLY AND LIMIT HEATING...AND THUS THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY. BETTER SURFACE HEAT LOOKS MORE LIKELY NOW AS THE FRONT
APPEARS TO BE MOVING A BIT SLOWER TAKING A LOOK AT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE PACKAGE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM. AREAS FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIER NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND NORTH COUNTRY
HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING THE MOST SUNSHINE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO THESE LOOK TO BE THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR STRONGER
STORMS. THESE AREAS ARE ALSO OUTLINED BY A SLIGHT RISK (15%) AREA
FROM SPC...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA UNDER A 5% RISK. TO
ADD...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7"-1.8" OUT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY OFFERS THE RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
ALL THESE FACTORS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION...IT APPEARS THERE WILL
BE SOME STRONG STORMS...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS. MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
WARM DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...BUT EVEN HERE THINGS WILL DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY STARTS TO BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED INTO
EASTERN QUEBEC WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE INCREASE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
MORNING. DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO ALONG A
CONVERGENCE ZONE RUNNING FROM THE NIAGARA PENINSULA TO NEAR
ROCHESTER. THIS MAY YIELD A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN IN THESE AREAS FOR
THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +12C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND
80 AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS
WILL PROVIDE MORE DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE
TIME. EXPECT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COOL OR DRY. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 ON THE LAKE PLAINS TO AROUND 50 IN THE COOLEST
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE THICKER CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO +14C TO +16C
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS
UP IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES.
ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BRING SOME
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. A WARMER AIRMASS AND A MIXING BREEZE
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE WITH UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG
HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE VERY CHANGEABLE WITH ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS
OF THE YEAR ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE
WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO JAMES BAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL CAPTURE AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ WITH ORIGINS
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS EML PLUME WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS
TO SOAR TO AROUND +18C TO +19C. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S IN MANY AREAS...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS LIKELY TO BE
IN THE GENESEE VALLEY. THE EML PLUME WILL PROVIDE A STRONG CAP IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND SHOULD HOLD CONVECTION AT BAY UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT AND TROUGH APPROACH AND
AID IN ERODING THE MID LEVEL CAP.

FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE ACTIVE WITH A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS QUEBEC...ALTHOUGH A
TRAILING RIBBON OF STRONGER FLOW IN THE 900-700MB LAYER WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO ORGANIZE A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF ON TIMING...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO LOW LIKELY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW...WITH THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WOULD HOLD
UP THE FRONT SOMEWHAT AND ALSO FORCE IT TO BECOME MORE ANABATIC IN
NATURE WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
GFS HAS A FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SATURDAY DRY. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH A HEDGE TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. IN EITHER CASE IT WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTHEAST OF
THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THEIR COOLEST ON SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
60S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. AIRMASS
MODERATION WILL BEGIN BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
AT 09Z ARE SEEN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KJHW WHERE MVFR
CIGS HAVE FORMED AS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. KJHW WILL
PROBABLY SEE SOME IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE KBUF AND
KROC MAY SEE INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL.

THERE ARE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING IN OFF LAKE
ERIE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF BUFFALO. MAY SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR
LIGHT SHOWER AT KJHW AT SOME POINT EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EASE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. COUPLED WITH INCREASING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...WITH SOME OF
THESE POTENTIALLY BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS RETURNING AND EXPECTED TO LAST
THROUGH 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY. IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ON LAKE ERIE WHERE WINDS AND WAVES WILL CLIMB
TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR
JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...SO HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT SCA FOR LAKE ERIE
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL ALSO PRODUCE A ROUND
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...OF WHICH A FEW COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE BRINGING A RETURN TO
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM







000
FXUS61 KBUF 020932
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
532 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND BRING A RETURN TO DRIER AND
LESS HUMID WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
COMING IN OFF LAKE ERIE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF BUFFALO...WITH QUIET
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

THE AXIS OF BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SLIDE EAST FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT EASING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATER THIS MORNING ON THE NOSE OF 30-35KT
850MB JET...THEN REACHING NORTHCENTRAL NEW YORK BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH WITH
FORECAST SBCAPES GENERALLY RUNNING BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG COMBINED
WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -2C TO -3C. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR HAS
ALSO INCREASED TO 40-45KT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...MAKING THE CHANCES OF A FEW STORMS REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS EVEN BETTER. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET NEARING THE REGION. KEY FACTOR STILL APPEARS TO BE THE AMOUNT OF
SURFACE HEATING THAT TAKES PLACE BEFORE FROPA...I.E. WILL CLOUD
COVER MOVE IN TOO EARLY AND LIMIT HEATING...AND THUS THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY. BETTER SURFACE HEAT LOOKS MORE LIKELY NOW AS THE FRONT
APPEARS TO BE MOVING A BIT SLOWER TAKING A LOOK AT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE PACKAGE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM. AREAS FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIER NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND NORTH COUNTRY
HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING THE MOST SUNSHINE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO THESE LOOK TO BE THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR STRONGER
STORMS. THESE AREAS ARE ALSO OUTLINED BY A SLIGHT RISK (15%) AREA
FROM SPC...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA UNDER A 5% RISK. TO
ADD...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7"-1.8" OUT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY OFFERS THE RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
ALL THESE FACTORS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION...IT APPEARS THERE WILL
BE SOME STRONG STORMS...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS. MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
WARM DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...BUT EVEN HERE THINGS WILL DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY STARTS TO BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED INTO
EASTERN QUEBEC WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE INCREASE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
MORNING. DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO ALONG A
CONVERGENCE ZONE RUNNING FROM THE NIAGARA PENINSULA TO NEAR
ROCHESTER. THIS MAY YIELD A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN IN THESE AREAS FOR
THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +12C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND
80 AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS
WILL PROVIDE MORE DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE
TIME. EXPECT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COOL OR DRY. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 ON THE LAKE PLAINS TO AROUND 50 IN THE COOLEST
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE THICKER CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO +14C TO +16C
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS
UP IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES.
ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BRING SOME
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. A WARMER AIRMASS AND A MIXING BREEZE
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE WITH UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG
HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE VERY CHANGEABLE WITH ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS
OF THE YEAR ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE
WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO JAMES BAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL CAPTURE AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ WITH ORIGINS
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS EML PLUME WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS
TO SOAR TO AROUND +18C TO +19C. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S IN MANY AREAS...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS LIKELY TO BE
IN THE GENESEE VALLEY. THE EML PLUME WILL PROVIDE A STRONG CAP IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND SHOULD HOLD CONVECTION AT BAY UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT AND TROUGH APPROACH AND
AID IN ERODING THE MID LEVEL CAP.

FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE ACTIVE WITH A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS QUEBEC...ALTHOUGH A
TRAILING RIBBON OF STRONGER FLOW IN THE 900-700MB LAYER WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO ORGANIZE A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF ON TIMING...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO LOW LIKELY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW...WITH THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WOULD HOLD
UP THE FRONT SOMEWHAT AND ALSO FORCE IT TO BECOME MORE ANABATIC IN
NATURE WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
GFS HAS A FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SATURDAY DRY. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH A HEDGE TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. IN EITHER CASE IT WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTHEAST OF
THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THEIR COOLEST ON SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
60S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. AIRMASS
MODERATION WILL BEGIN BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
AT 09Z ARE SEEN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KJHW WHERE MVFR
CIGS HAVE FORMED AS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. KJHW WILL
PROBABLY SEE SOME IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE KBUF AND
KROC MAY SEE INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL.

THERE ARE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING IN OFF LAKE
ERIE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF BUFFALO. MAY SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR
LIGHT SHOWER AT KJHW AT SOME POINT EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EASE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. COUPLED WITH INCREASING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...WITH SOME OF
THESE POTENTIALLY BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS RETURNING AND EXPECTED TO LAST
THROUGH 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY. IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ON LAKE ERIE WHERE WINDS AND WAVES WILL CLIMB
TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR
JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...SO HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT SCA FOR LAKE ERIE
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL ALSO PRODUCE A ROUND
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...OF WHICH A FEW COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE BRINGING A RETURN TO
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 020847
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
447 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN CROSSES THE
TRI-STATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS A CHALLENGING ONE. WHILE A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND REMAIN OVER MAINLY
WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES...APPEARS SHOULD HAVE A WEAK CAP DEVELOP
AROUND 650 HPA. SO EVEN WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE FORECAST...THE
WEAK CAP COUPLED WITH BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PROGGED TO OUR N...AND
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR 20 KT OR LESS UNTIL MAYBE VERY LATE IN THE
DAY OVER FAR W ZONES AS LOW-MID LEVEL JET APPROACHES THERE. APPEARS
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION IS OVER AREAS N/W OF NYC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW-MID LEVEL JET.

GIVEN ABOVE...FEEL THAT MOST LIKELY CAP HOLDS ON OVER THE SE 2/3
OF THE CWA...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THERE. HAVE CHANCE
POPS BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL
BE MAINLY OF THE PULSE VARIETY...WITH SOME MULTI-CELLULAR
STRUCTURES POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY ORANGE COUNTY
WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW-MID LEVEL JETS. BASED ON THIS FEEL SEVERE
THREAT IS MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. SHOULD SEE VALUES AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL -
FROM AROUND 90 TO THE MID 90S INLAND/NYC HEAT ISLAND...AND MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER
90S ACROSS URBAN NE NJ AND NYC THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FALL
SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 80-90 KT 300 HPA
JET...PASSING OF STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL JETS IN THE
EVENING...AND THE AREA UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS...COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 2 INCHES...THEN HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM THIS EVENING. REFER TO HYDROLOGY
SECTION OF THE AFD FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

HOWEVER...WILL BE WORKING AGAINST DIMINISH CAPE WITH THE LOSS OF
SOLAR HEATING...WITH BEST DYNAMICS PASSING TO THE N...BELIEVE THAT
ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...AND IT WAS NOT ALL THAT HIGH TO BEGIN WITH.

700-500 HPA SHORTWAVES LIFTS TO THE N/E OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR THINGS TO DRY OUT
LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVES.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM
850-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS SUNNY AND DRY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT HUMIDITY LEVELS TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING OFFSHORE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE
MODELS WANT TO LINGER SOME PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...DO NOT WANT TO RULE THIS OUT...SO WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED RIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS.  TEMPERATURES THEN FALL
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG LIKELY ALONG EASTERN TERMINALS...POSSIBLE
ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS.

ANY STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING...WITH VFR CONDS
IN AFTN.

LIGHT AND VRB WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THRU THE COMING
MORNING...GIVING WAY TO AFTN SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
COAST.

INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA THE COMING EVENING ACROSS NYC
TERMINALS AND TO THE W & NW WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL
MAINTAIN PROB30 NOW...GENERALLY THINKING BETWEEN 01-07Z.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE OF STRATUS/FOG FORMATION
AROUND DAYBREAK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 17-19Z. PCPN ISOLATED IN NATURE THIS EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE OF STRATUS/FOG FORMATION
AROUND DAYBREAK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. GUSTS MAY
BE MORE OCNL THIS AFTN. PCPN ISOLATED IN NATURE THIS EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE OF STRATUS/FOG FORMATION
AROUND DAYBREAK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. GUSTS MAY
BE MORE OCNL THIS AFTN. PCPN ISOLATED IN NATURE THIS EVENING.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE OF STRATUS/FOG FORMATION
AROUND DAYBREAK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. PCPN
ISOLATED-SCT IN NATURE THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MOD CONFIDENCE OF STRATUS/FOG FORMATION
AROUND DAYBREAK. PCPN ISOLATED-SCT IN NATURE THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MOD CONFIDENCE OF STRATUS/FOG FORMATION
AROUND DAYBREAK. OCNL GUSTS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...GENERALLY AFTR 18/19Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY PCPN
THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WED THROUGH FRI...
.TUE NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFTING SW TO NW BEHIND FRONT
BETWEEN 06-12Z.
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
.SAT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT ON ANZ-350
TONIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND RESIDUAL 1-2 FT SWELLS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
NOT ALL THAT HIGH...SO DO NOT REFLECT IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SEAS SHOULD COME DOWN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SPOTTY SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY OVER AREAS N/W OF NYC...COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LESS THAN
0.2 INCHES OF BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...BC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...BC/MALOIT






000
FXUS61 KOKX 020847
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
447 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN CROSSES THE
TRI-STATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS A CHALLENGING ONE. WHILE A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND REMAIN OVER MAINLY
WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES...APPEARS SHOULD HAVE A WEAK CAP DEVELOP
AROUND 650 HPA. SO EVEN WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE FORECAST...THE
WEAK CAP COUPLED WITH BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PROGGED TO OUR N...AND
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR 20 KT OR LESS UNTIL MAYBE VERY LATE IN THE
DAY OVER FAR W ZONES AS LOW-MID LEVEL JET APPROACHES THERE. APPEARS
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION IS OVER AREAS N/W OF NYC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW-MID LEVEL JET.

GIVEN ABOVE...FEEL THAT MOST LIKELY CAP HOLDS ON OVER THE SE 2/3
OF THE CWA...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THERE. HAVE CHANCE
POPS BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL
BE MAINLY OF THE PULSE VARIETY...WITH SOME MULTI-CELLULAR
STRUCTURES POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY ORANGE COUNTY
WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW-MID LEVEL JETS. BASED ON THIS FEEL SEVERE
THREAT IS MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. SHOULD SEE VALUES AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL -
FROM AROUND 90 TO THE MID 90S INLAND/NYC HEAT ISLAND...AND MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER
90S ACROSS URBAN NE NJ AND NYC THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FALL
SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 80-90 KT 300 HPA
JET...PASSING OF STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL JETS IN THE
EVENING...AND THE AREA UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS...COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 2 INCHES...THEN HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM THIS EVENING. REFER TO HYDROLOGY
SECTION OF THE AFD FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

HOWEVER...WILL BE WORKING AGAINST DIMINISH CAPE WITH THE LOSS OF
SOLAR HEATING...WITH BEST DYNAMICS PASSING TO THE N...BELIEVE THAT
ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...AND IT WAS NOT ALL THAT HIGH TO BEGIN WITH.

700-500 HPA SHORTWAVES LIFTS TO THE N/E OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR THINGS TO DRY OUT
LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVES.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM
850-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS SUNNY AND DRY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT HUMIDITY LEVELS TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING OFFSHORE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE
MODELS WANT TO LINGER SOME PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...DO NOT WANT TO RULE THIS OUT...SO WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED RIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS.  TEMPERATURES THEN FALL
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG LIKELY ALONG EASTERN TERMINALS...POSSIBLE
ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS.

ANY STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING...WITH VFR CONDS
IN AFTN.

LIGHT AND VRB WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THRU THE COMING
MORNING...GIVING WAY TO AFTN SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
COAST.

INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA THE COMING EVENING ACROSS NYC
TERMINALS AND TO THE W & NW WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL
MAINTAIN PROB30 NOW...GENERALLY THINKING BETWEEN 01-07Z.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE OF STRATUS/FOG FORMATION
AROUND DAYBREAK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 17-19Z. PCPN ISOLATED IN NATURE THIS EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE OF STRATUS/FOG FORMATION
AROUND DAYBREAK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. GUSTS MAY
BE MORE OCNL THIS AFTN. PCPN ISOLATED IN NATURE THIS EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE OF STRATUS/FOG FORMATION
AROUND DAYBREAK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. GUSTS MAY
BE MORE OCNL THIS AFTN. PCPN ISOLATED IN NATURE THIS EVENING.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE OF STRATUS/FOG FORMATION
AROUND DAYBREAK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. PCPN
ISOLATED-SCT IN NATURE THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MOD CONFIDENCE OF STRATUS/FOG FORMATION
AROUND DAYBREAK. PCPN ISOLATED-SCT IN NATURE THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MOD CONFIDENCE OF STRATUS/FOG FORMATION
AROUND DAYBREAK. OCNL GUSTS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...GENERALLY AFTR 18/19Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY PCPN
THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WED THROUGH FRI...
.TUE NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFTING SW TO NW BEHIND FRONT
BETWEEN 06-12Z.
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
.SAT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT ON ANZ-350
TONIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND RESIDUAL 1-2 FT SWELLS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
NOT ALL THAT HIGH...SO DO NOT REFLECT IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SEAS SHOULD COME DOWN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SPOTTY SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY OVER AREAS N/W OF NYC...COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LESS THAN
0.2 INCHES OF BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...BC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...BC/MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KBUF 020839
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
439 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WHILE DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AREA
TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES AND AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND BRING A RETURN TO DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS OVERNIGHT REGIONAL RADARS STILL DISPLAYING LINE OF
WEAKENING SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM MONROE COUNTY SOUTHEAST TO
CATTARAUGUS COUNTY ALL ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CROSSING
WESTERN NEW YORK. NORTHERN PART OF LINE HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY...CONTAINING JUST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...HOWEVER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER THERE ARE STILL A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH AND
EXITING CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES BEFORE EXITING TO THE
EAST...WHILE TO THE NORTH OF HERE THE LINE CONTINUES TO ALL BUT
FIZZLE OUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES REGION. THAT SAID...THE LLJ OF 30 KNOTS AT 850 HPA
SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA AND
POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN.

ON TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
SLIDE EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION...
WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT EASING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES...WHILE LARGE-SCALE
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OWING TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT/THE NOSE OF A 30-40 KT LOW-MID LEVEL
JET...SUPPORTING SYNOPTIC-SCALE DCVA/HEIGHT FALLS...AND INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+ KNOT
UPPER LEVEL JET. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ALL OF THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN FAIRLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION...FOR WHICH SOME
LIKELY TO LOW-END CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN PLAY.

WHILE THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND IN PLACE ALOFT TO KEEP
THINGS MOVING ALONG...GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS THERE STILL WILL
BE AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IF ANY STRONGER/HEAVIER CELLS MANAGE TO TRAIN REPEATEDLY
OVER A PARTICULAR AREA. THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT
LESS CLEAR GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...HOWEVER WITH 35-45 KNOTS WORTH OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN
PLACE...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF ATTENDANT
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY EXISTS PROVIDED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY CAN ULTIMATELY BE REALIZED. AT THIS POINT...A ROUGH
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL
EXIST FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICS WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED UPON EACH OTHER. NOT
COINCIDENTALLY... THIS AGREES QUITE WELL WITH SPC`S LATEST DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WHICH PORTRAYS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THIS PARTICULAR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED INTO
EASTERN QUEBEC WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE INCREASE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
MORNING. DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO ALONG A
CONVERGENCE ZONE RUNNING FROM THE NIAGARA PENINSULA TO NEAR
ROCHESTER. THIS MAY YIELD A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN IN THESE AREAS FOR
THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +12C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND
80 AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS
WILL PROVIDE MORE DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE
TIME. EXPECT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COOL OR DRY. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 ON THE LAKE PLAINS TO AROUND 50 IN THE COOLEST
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE THICKER CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO +14C TO +16C
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS
UP IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES.
ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BRING SOME
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. A WARMER AIRMASS AND A MIXING BREEZE
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE WITH UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG
HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE VERY CHANGEABLE WITH ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS
OF THE YEAR ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE
WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO JAMES BAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL CAPTURE AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ WITH ORIGINS
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS EML PLUME WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS
TO SOAR TO AROUND +18C TO +19C. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S IN MANY AREAS...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS LIKELY TO BE
IN THE GENESEE VALLEY. THE EML PLUME WILL PROVIDE A STRONG CAP IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND SHOULD HOLD CONVECTION AT BAY UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT AND TROUGH APPROACH AND
AID IN ERODING THE MID LEVEL CAP.

FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE ACTIVE WITH A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS QUEBEC...ALTHOUGH A
TRAILING RIBBON OF STRONGER FLOW IN THE 900-700MB LAYER WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO ORGANIZE A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF ON TIMING...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO LOW LIKELY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW...WITH THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WOULD HOLD
UP THE FRONT SOMEWHAT AND ALSO FORCE IT TO BECOME MORE ANABATIC IN
NATURE WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
GFS HAS A FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SATURDAY DRY. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH A HEDGE TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. IN EITHER CASE IT WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTHEAST OF
THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THEIR COOLEST ON SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
60S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. AIRMASS
MODERATION WILL BEGIN BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT 06Z WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS OR
SO...BEFORE SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS...AND SOUTHERN TIER IFR CIGS
FORM ACROSS THE REGION JUST BEFORE DAWN.

PRE FRONTAL SURFACE IS NOW EAST OF THE KBUF/KIAG/KJHW
TERMINALS...TAKING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH
IT. KJHW SAW A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE PRECIPITATION...BUT
SKIES HAVE NOW SCATTERED OUT SINCE THE PRECIPITATION MOVED TO THE
EAST. THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER LAKE ERIE. THESE
ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE WHERE AIR IS
JUST A BIT MORE STABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER ANY OF THESE SHOWERS THAT DO HOLD TOGETHER ONCE ONSHORE
COULD BRING A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER TO ANYWHERE ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. MAY SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER AT KROC THROUGH
07Z WITH THE TROUGH AS IT PASSES THROUGH...THEN JUST SOME PASSING
CLOUDS AFTER THAT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BEFORE
REACHING THE KART AIRFIELD.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EASE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. COUPLED WITH INCREASING
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...WITH
SOME OF THESE POTENTIALLY BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...WHERE OVERALL
INSTABILITY APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE THE STRONGEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS...WITH CONDITIONS MOSTLY RETURNING TO VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY ON ON LAKE ERIE WHERE
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. WILL ISSUE A SCA
FOR LAKE ERIE THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME WINDS
NEARING 18-20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
FRONT ITSELF WILL ALSO PRODUCE A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY... A FEW OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE BRINGING A RETURN TO
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JM/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM/THOMAS
MARINE...JM/THOMAS






000
FXUS61 KBUF 020839
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
439 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WHILE DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AREA
TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES AND AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND BRING A RETURN TO DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS OVERNIGHT REGIONAL RADARS STILL DISPLAYING LINE OF
WEAKENING SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM MONROE COUNTY SOUTHEAST TO
CATTARAUGUS COUNTY ALL ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CROSSING
WESTERN NEW YORK. NORTHERN PART OF LINE HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY...CONTAINING JUST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...HOWEVER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER THERE ARE STILL A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH AND
EXITING CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES BEFORE EXITING TO THE
EAST...WHILE TO THE NORTH OF HERE THE LINE CONTINUES TO ALL BUT
FIZZLE OUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES REGION. THAT SAID...THE LLJ OF 30 KNOTS AT 850 HPA
SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA AND
POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN.

ON TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
SLIDE EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION...
WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT EASING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES...WHILE LARGE-SCALE
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OWING TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT/THE NOSE OF A 30-40 KT LOW-MID LEVEL
JET...SUPPORTING SYNOPTIC-SCALE DCVA/HEIGHT FALLS...AND INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+ KNOT
UPPER LEVEL JET. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ALL OF THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN FAIRLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION...FOR WHICH SOME
LIKELY TO LOW-END CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN PLAY.

WHILE THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND IN PLACE ALOFT TO KEEP
THINGS MOVING ALONG...GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS THERE STILL WILL
BE AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IF ANY STRONGER/HEAVIER CELLS MANAGE TO TRAIN REPEATEDLY
OVER A PARTICULAR AREA. THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT
LESS CLEAR GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...HOWEVER WITH 35-45 KNOTS WORTH OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN
PLACE...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF ATTENDANT
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY EXISTS PROVIDED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY CAN ULTIMATELY BE REALIZED. AT THIS POINT...A ROUGH
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL
EXIST FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICS WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED UPON EACH OTHER. NOT
COINCIDENTALLY... THIS AGREES QUITE WELL WITH SPC`S LATEST DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WHICH PORTRAYS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THIS PARTICULAR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED INTO
EASTERN QUEBEC WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE INCREASE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
MORNING. DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO ALONG A
CONVERGENCE ZONE RUNNING FROM THE NIAGARA PENINSULA TO NEAR
ROCHESTER. THIS MAY YIELD A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN IN THESE AREAS FOR
THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +12C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND
80 AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS
WILL PROVIDE MORE DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE
TIME. EXPECT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COOL OR DRY. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 ON THE LAKE PLAINS TO AROUND 50 IN THE COOLEST
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE THICKER CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO +14C TO +16C
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS
UP IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES.
ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BRING SOME
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. A WARMER AIRMASS AND A MIXING BREEZE
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE WITH UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG
HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE VERY CHANGEABLE WITH ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS
OF THE YEAR ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE
WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO JAMES BAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL CAPTURE AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ WITH ORIGINS
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS EML PLUME WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS
TO SOAR TO AROUND +18C TO +19C. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S IN MANY AREAS...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS LIKELY TO BE
IN THE GENESEE VALLEY. THE EML PLUME WILL PROVIDE A STRONG CAP IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND SHOULD HOLD CONVECTION AT BAY UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT AND TROUGH APPROACH AND
AID IN ERODING THE MID LEVEL CAP.

FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE ACTIVE WITH A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS QUEBEC...ALTHOUGH A
TRAILING RIBBON OF STRONGER FLOW IN THE 900-700MB LAYER WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO ORGANIZE A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF ON TIMING...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO LOW LIKELY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW...WITH THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WOULD HOLD
UP THE FRONT SOMEWHAT AND ALSO FORCE IT TO BECOME MORE ANABATIC IN
NATURE WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
GFS HAS A FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SATURDAY DRY. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH A HEDGE TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. IN EITHER CASE IT WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTHEAST OF
THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THEIR COOLEST ON SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
60S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. AIRMASS
MODERATION WILL BEGIN BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT 06Z WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS OR
SO...BEFORE SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS...AND SOUTHERN TIER IFR CIGS
FORM ACROSS THE REGION JUST BEFORE DAWN.

PRE FRONTAL SURFACE IS NOW EAST OF THE KBUF/KIAG/KJHW
TERMINALS...TAKING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH
IT. KJHW SAW A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE PRECIPITATION...BUT
SKIES HAVE NOW SCATTERED OUT SINCE THE PRECIPITATION MOVED TO THE
EAST. THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER LAKE ERIE. THESE
ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE WHERE AIR IS
JUST A BIT MORE STABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER ANY OF THESE SHOWERS THAT DO HOLD TOGETHER ONCE ONSHORE
COULD BRING A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER TO ANYWHERE ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. MAY SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER AT KROC THROUGH
07Z WITH THE TROUGH AS IT PASSES THROUGH...THEN JUST SOME PASSING
CLOUDS AFTER THAT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BEFORE
REACHING THE KART AIRFIELD.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EASE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. COUPLED WITH INCREASING
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...WITH
SOME OF THESE POTENTIALLY BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...WHERE OVERALL
INSTABILITY APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE THE STRONGEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS...WITH CONDITIONS MOSTLY RETURNING TO VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY ON ON LAKE ERIE WHERE
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. WILL ISSUE A SCA
FOR LAKE ERIE THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME WINDS
NEARING 18-20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
FRONT ITSELF WILL ALSO PRODUCE A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY... A FEW OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE BRINGING A RETURN TO
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JM/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM/THOMAS
MARINE...JM/THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBGM 020835
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
435 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED
BY A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRY
WARM WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. RIGHT NOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR
ELMIRA, AND A FEW MORE OVER THE TUG HILL GIVE US A GOOD IDEA OF
OUR WEATHER THROUGH NOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME BUT MOST WILL REMAIN
DRY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF DETROIT WILL BE THE
TRIGGER FOR A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
18Z.

FOLLOWING THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC/ARW/NMM FOR TIMING, A LINE OR
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR CWA
TOWARD 18Z. IT APPEARS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS FOR THE BULK
OF OUR AREA WILL COME CLOSER TO 21Z AND SHOULD IMPACT A LINE FROM NEAR
UTICA/NORWICH/BINGHAMTON/TOWANDA BACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES.
AFTER 21Z THE LINE SHOULD SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH
NEPA BY 03Z. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE MOST OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDE GOOD MID LEVEL
SHEAR (0-6 KM BULK SHEARS 45+ KTS), WHICH WOULD FAVOR BROKEN OR
SHORT LINES OF CONVECTION MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WHICH IS
PLAYING OUT IN MINIMAL MLCAPES. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER
WITH MLCAPES ABOVE 1,000 J/KG. MEANWHILE THE RUC/ARW/EURO/GFS ALL
SHOW VALUES CLOSER TO 500 J/KG. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SEVERE
THREAT IN THE HWO AND GRIDS WITH GUSTY WIND WORDING, TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY. WE WILL CAREFULLY WATCH THE MESO ANALYSIS THIS
AFTERNOON TO SEE IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A
GREATER CONCERN. LASTLY, WHILE THE STORMS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE
TODAY, PWATS DO BRIEFLY CLIMB TOWARD 2"! WITH THAT IN MIND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. NO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED ASIDE FROM ANY
STORMS MOVING OVER URBAN AREAS, WHERE RAINFALL RATES CAN ALWAYS
POSE A PROBLEM WHEN THEY GO ABOVE 1.5 INCHES IN AN HOUR.

CONVECTION DIES DOWN BY 03Z, WITH DRIER WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST AND KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET DURING
THE PERIOD. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE WARM AIR, AS A BUBBLE OF
VERY WARM AIR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SPREADS EAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE AFTER A BRIEF COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WEDNESDAY, WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPS NEAR 80, WE WILL REBOUND WELL
INTO THE 80S AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN HOTTER AIR IS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. READ MORE BELOW.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH WILL FEATURE A WEEKEND
FROPA. MAX TEMPS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON FRI WILL GET WELL INTO THE
8OS...WITH HIGHS GNRLY IN THE 65-70 RNG BY SUN/MON. BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FNT ON SAT...WITH COOLER TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER XPCTD FOR SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUE UPDATE... VRBL CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HRS...WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS...AND ALSO VSBY`S IN
BR/HZ/-SHRA AT MOST SITES...SPCLY IN THE 08-13Z TIME FRAME. AT
KELM...HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE A SHORT TIME WINDOW FOR DENSE
FOG FORMATION ARND DAYBREAK...SO HERE WE`VE INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR.

FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL...UNDERNEATH A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD. BY LATE AFTN...THOUGH...IT APPEARS THAT A LN OF SHWRS/TSTMS
WILL MARCH ACRS THE RGN...ALG AND JUST AHD OF A COLD FRNTL BNDRY.
FOR NOW...WE`VE PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA WITHIN A NARROW
2-HR TIME FRAME AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

THIS EVE...BEHIND THE COLD FRNT...IT APPEARS THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS ONCE AGN...SPCLY ACRS CNTRL/ERN NY. WE`VE
INTRODUCED THIS PSBLTY AT KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM ONLY.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KAH/MLJ






000
FXUS61 KALY 020832
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...WHAT FEW SHOWERS THAT WERE OUT THERE...HAVE SINCE
DISSIPATED. THE VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED ON BY...BUT THERE
STILL SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK IT SHOULD REMAIN RAINFREE. SOME PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG HAVE FORMED...AND WILL PERSIST UNTIL THEN ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY MORNING DUE TO MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER
AND A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE PERSISTING.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
IN OUTLYING AREAS...TO LOWER 70S RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITIES.

AFTER SUNRISE...WE LOSE THE FOG AND SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...MIXED
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...SUNSHINE MIGHT ACTUALLY INCREASE MIDDAY. INITIALLY WE ARE
"CAPPED" MEANING THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WHICH
WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION...OR AT THE VERY LEAST...PREVENT THE CU
FROM GETTING TOO TALL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
AREAS WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR A POP UP SHOWER IN
THOSE AREAS BEFORE NOON.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 90S...JUST SHY OF WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. MOST
OTHER VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...WILL SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HILLTOWNS WILL HAVE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS BEEN
SLOW TO FORM. WILL ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL MVFR FOG AT KPOU/KALB
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT KGFL WILL FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR
FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. AT KPSF IFR FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED...BUT IT IS NOT PERSISTENT...WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR FOG CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z ALL TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. BEGINNING 20Z TO 22Z
HAVE FORECAST A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH OR CALM THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 4 TO 8
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV













000
FXUS61 KALY 020832
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...WHAT FEW SHOWERS THAT WERE OUT THERE...HAVE SINCE
DISSIPATED. THE VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED ON BY...BUT THERE
STILL SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK IT SHOULD REMAIN RAINFREE. SOME PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG HAVE FORMED...AND WILL PERSIST UNTIL THEN ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY MORNING DUE TO MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER
AND A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE PERSISTING.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
IN OUTLYING AREAS...TO LOWER 70S RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITIES.

AFTER SUNRISE...WE LOSE THE FOG AND SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...MIXED
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...SUNSHINE MIGHT ACTUALLY INCREASE MIDDAY. INITIALLY WE ARE
"CAPPED" MEANING THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WHICH
WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION...OR AT THE VERY LEAST...PREVENT THE CU
FROM GETTING TOO TALL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
AREAS WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR A POP UP SHOWER IN
THOSE AREAS BEFORE NOON.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 90S...JUST SHY OF WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. MOST
OTHER VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...WILL SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HILLTOWNS WILL HAVE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS BEEN
SLOW TO FORM. WILL ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL MVFR FOG AT KPOU/KALB
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT KGFL WILL FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR
FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. AT KPSF IFR FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED...BUT IT IS NOT PERSISTENT...WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR FOG CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z ALL TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. BEGINNING 20Z TO 22Z
HAVE FORECAST A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH OR CALM THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 4 TO 8
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV













000
FXUS61 KALY 020832
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...WHAT FEW SHOWERS THAT WERE OUT THERE...HAVE SINCE
DISSIPATED. THE VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED ON BY...BUT THERE
STILL SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK IT SHOULD REMAIN RAINFREE. SOME PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG HAVE FORMED...AND WILL PERSIST UNTIL THEN ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY MORNING DUE TO MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER
AND A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE PERSISTING.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
IN OUTLYING AREAS...TO LOWER 70S RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITIES.

AFTER SUNRISE...WE LOSE THE FOG AND SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...MIXED
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...SUNSHINE MIGHT ACTUALLY INCREASE MIDDAY. INITIALLY WE ARE
"CAPPED" MEANING THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WHICH
WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION...OR AT THE VERY LEAST...PREVENT THE CU
FROM GETTING TOO TALL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
AREAS WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR A POP UP SHOWER IN
THOSE AREAS BEFORE NOON.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 90S...JUST SHY OF WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. MOST
OTHER VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...WILL SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HILLTOWNS WILL HAVE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS BEEN
SLOW TO FORM. WILL ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL MVFR FOG AT KPOU/KALB
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT KGFL WILL FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR
FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. AT KPSF IFR FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED...BUT IT IS NOT PERSISTENT...WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR FOG CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z ALL TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. BEGINNING 20Z TO 22Z
HAVE FORECAST A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH OR CALM THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 4 TO 8
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV













000
FXUS61 KALY 020832
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...WHAT FEW SHOWERS THAT WERE OUT THERE...HAVE SINCE
DISSIPATED. THE VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED ON BY...BUT THERE
STILL SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK IT SHOULD REMAIN RAINFREE. SOME PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG HAVE FORMED...AND WILL PERSIST UNTIL THEN ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY MORNING DUE TO MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER
AND A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE PERSISTING.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
IN OUTLYING AREAS...TO LOWER 70S RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITIES.

AFTER SUNRISE...WE LOSE THE FOG AND SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...MIXED
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...SUNSHINE MIGHT ACTUALLY INCREASE MIDDAY. INITIALLY WE ARE
"CAPPED" MEANING THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WHICH
WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION...OR AT THE VERY LEAST...PREVENT THE CU
FROM GETTING TOO TALL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
AREAS WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR A POP UP SHOWER IN
THOSE AREAS BEFORE NOON.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 90S...JUST SHY OF WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. MOST
OTHER VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...WILL SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HILLTOWNS WILL HAVE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS BEEN
SLOW TO FORM. WILL ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL MVFR FOG AT KPOU/KALB
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT KGFL WILL FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR
FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. AT KPSF IFR FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED...BUT IT IS NOT PERSISTENT...WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR FOG CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z ALL TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. BEGINNING 20Z TO 22Z
HAVE FORECAST A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH OR CALM THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 4 TO 8
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV













000
FXUS61 KALY 020825
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...WHAT FEW SHOWERS THAT WERE OUT THERE...HAVE SINCE
DISSIPATED. THE VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED ON BY...BUT THERE
STILL SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK IT SHOULD REMAIN RAINFREE. SOME PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG HAVE FORMED...AND WILL PERSIST UNTIL THEN ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY MORNING DUE TO MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER
AND A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE PERSISTING.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
IN OUTLYING AREAS...TO LOWER 70S RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITIES.

AFTER SUNRISE...WE LOSE THE FOG AND SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...MIXED
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...SUNSHINE MIGHT ACTUALLY INCREASE MIDDAY. INITIALLY WE ARE
"CAPPED" MEANING THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WHICH
WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION...OR AT THE VERY LEAST...PREVENT THE CU
FROM GETTING TOO TALL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
AREAS WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR A POP UP SHOWER IN
THOSE AREAS BEFORE NOON.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 90S...JUST SHY OF WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. MOST
OTHER VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...WILL SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HILLTOWNS WILL HAVE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COMING SOON.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS BEEN
SLOW TO FORM. WILL ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL MVFR FOG AT KPOU/KALB
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT KGFL WILL FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR
FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. AT KPSF IFR FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED...BUT IT IS NOT PERSISTENT...WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR FOG CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z ALL TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. BEGINNING 20Z TO 22Z
HAVE FORECAST A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH OR CALM THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 4 TO 8
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 020825
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...WHAT FEW SHOWERS THAT WERE OUT THERE...HAVE SINCE
DISSIPATED. THE VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED ON BY...BUT THERE
STILL SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK IT SHOULD REMAIN RAINFREE. SOME PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG HAVE FORMED...AND WILL PERSIST UNTIL THEN ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY MORNING DUE TO MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER
AND A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE PERSISTING.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
IN OUTLYING AREAS...TO LOWER 70S RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITIES.

AFTER SUNRISE...WE LOSE THE FOG AND SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...MIXED
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...SUNSHINE MIGHT ACTUALLY INCREASE MIDDAY. INITIALLY WE ARE
"CAPPED" MEANING THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WHICH
WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION...OR AT THE VERY LEAST...PREVENT THE CU
FROM GETTING TOO TALL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
AREAS WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR A POP UP SHOWER IN
THOSE AREAS BEFORE NOON.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 90S...JUST SHY OF WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. MOST
OTHER VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...WILL SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HILLTOWNS WILL HAVE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COMING SOON.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS BEEN
SLOW TO FORM. WILL ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL MVFR FOG AT KPOU/KALB
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT KGFL WILL FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR
FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. AT KPSF IFR FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED...BUT IT IS NOT PERSISTENT...WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR FOG CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z ALL TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. BEGINNING 20Z TO 22Z
HAVE FORECAST A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH OR CALM THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 4 TO 8
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBTV 020821
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
421 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...
WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THIS
FRONT WILL REACH VERMONT BY EARLY EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. AS THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
THE INCREASING INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. FAVORABLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OVER THE TOP OF THE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS TO
BECOME ORGANIZED AND LONGER LIVED...THUS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED
WELL WITH ENHANCED WORDING ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH THIS IDEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY EXITING MOST OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY DURING THIS PERIOD AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND NOT THE NORTHWEST...COLDER AIR WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. SO EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE
COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA PREDOMINANTLY UNDER
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EASTERN US RIDGE NOSING INTO NEW
ENGLAND EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND BROAD TROUGH ESTABLISHED FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECT FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SURFACE FRONT.
BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS HIT THE UPPER TEENS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
VERY WARM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS...ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY UP A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE.

500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
US TIER STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH BEST UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW
PASSING TO NORTH...SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWS AND BECOMES ORIENTED
MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS
MOVING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE ECMWF HANGS IT UP IN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. HEDGED
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEPT CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY. RIGHT
NOW SATURDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER...
COINCIDING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES
DO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND LOWER HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR. AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. COVERAGE WILL BE HIT OR MISS SO OPTED TO USE
VCSH AND KEEP CONDITIONS VFR AT TAF SITES. SHOWERS TO MOVE WEST TO
EAST...INTO KMSS 12Z...THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 14-15Z...AND OUT OF
VERMONT BY 16-17Z. VFR P6SM AND SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT 20-24Z
TIME FRAME COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG AFTER 06Z.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON







000
FXUS61 KBTV 020821
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
421 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...
WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THIS
FRONT WILL REACH VERMONT BY EARLY EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. AS THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
THE INCREASING INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. FAVORABLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OVER THE TOP OF THE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS TO
BECOME ORGANIZED AND LONGER LIVED...THUS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED
WELL WITH ENHANCED WORDING ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH THIS IDEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY EXITING MOST OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY DURING THIS PERIOD AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND NOT THE NORTHWEST...COLDER AIR WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. SO EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE
COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA PREDOMINANTLY UNDER
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EASTERN US RIDGE NOSING INTO NEW
ENGLAND EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND BROAD TROUGH ESTABLISHED FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECT FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SURFACE FRONT.
BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS HIT THE UPPER TEENS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
VERY WARM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS...ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY UP A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE.

500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
US TIER STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH BEST UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW
PASSING TO NORTH...SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWS AND BECOMES ORIENTED
MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS
MOVING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE ECMWF HANGS IT UP IN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. HEDGED
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEPT CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY. RIGHT
NOW SATURDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER...
COINCIDING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES
DO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND LOWER HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR. AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. COVERAGE WILL BE HIT OR MISS SO OPTED TO USE
VCSH AND KEEP CONDITIONS VFR AT TAF SITES. SHOWERS TO MOVE WEST TO
EAST...INTO KMSS 12Z...THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 14-15Z...AND OUT OF
VERMONT BY 16-17Z. VFR P6SM AND SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT 20-24Z
TIME FRAME COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG AFTER 06Z.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 020810
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
410 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUATION
OF WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 106 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND
VERY LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT
CONDITIONS BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TRACK. IF THERE ARE GOING TO BE
ANY SHOWERS...IT WOULD BE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT MONDAY...MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN THE NEXT WEEK
THEN OCCURS TOMORROW AS WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION. WHILE BAROCLINICITY IS ONCE AGAIN FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR (~30-40KT) AND MODEST PBL
INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) ALONG FORERUNNING PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM
FAIRLY EASILY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD TREND STRONG...PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SEVERE CELL OR TWO...BY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD WHERE BETTER INSOLATION SHOULD OCCUR. BETTER
FORCING/HEATING DOES APPEAR TO SET UP JUST A BIT SOUTH OF US
THOUGH. GIVEN THIS SETUP I`VE ADDED PROGS FOR GUSTY WINDS/SMALL
HAIL IN THE WORDED FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS ACCORDINGLY...IN
FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO MOST RECENT 5 PCT SREF CALIBRATED
TSTM/SVR TSTM PROGS. CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WARM AND MUGGY AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS SOLIDLY INTO THE 60S AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

ANY EVENING CONVECTION THEN CLEARS EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY AS ACTUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. STILL
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE SLOWLY DROPPING OVER TIME.

THEREAFTER...MEAN HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES AND WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. ONLY A MODEST AIR MASS CHANGE WITH HIGHS STILL SEASONABLY MILD
IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE. THEN TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ATOP THE REGION. LOWS QUITE PLEASANT...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA PREDOMINANTLY UNDER
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EASTERN US RIDGE NOSING INTO NEW
ENGLAND EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND BROAD TROUGH ESTABLISHED FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECT FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SURFACE FRONT.
BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS HIT THE UPPER TEENS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
VERY WARM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS...ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY UP A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE.

500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
US TIER STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH BEST UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW
PASSING TO NORTH...SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWS AND BECOMES ORIENTED
MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS
MOVING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE ECMWF HANGS IT UP IN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. HEDGED
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEPT CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY. RIGHT
NOW SATURDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER...
COINCIDING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES
DO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND LOWER HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR. AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. COVERAGE WILL BE HIT OR MISS SO OPTED TO USE
VCSH AND KEEP CONDITIONS VFR AT TAF SITES. SHOWERS TO MOVE WEST TO
EAST...INTO KMSS 12Z...THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 14-15Z...AND OUT OF
VERMONT BY 16-17Z. VFR P6SM AND SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT 20-24Z
TIMEFRAME COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG AFTER 06Z.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 020810
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
410 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUATION
OF WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 106 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND
VERY LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT
CONDITIONS BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TRACK. IF THERE ARE GOING TO BE
ANY SHOWERS...IT WOULD BE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT MONDAY...MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN THE NEXT WEEK
THEN OCCURS TOMORROW AS WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION. WHILE BAROCLINICITY IS ONCE AGAIN FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR (~30-40KT) AND MODEST PBL
INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) ALONG FORERUNNING PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM
FAIRLY EASILY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD TREND STRONG...PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SEVERE CELL OR TWO...BY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD WHERE BETTER INSOLATION SHOULD OCCUR. BETTER
FORCING/HEATING DOES APPEAR TO SET UP JUST A BIT SOUTH OF US
THOUGH. GIVEN THIS SETUP I`VE ADDED PROGS FOR GUSTY WINDS/SMALL
HAIL IN THE WORDED FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS ACCORDINGLY...IN
FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO MOST RECENT 5 PCT SREF CALIBRATED
TSTM/SVR TSTM PROGS. CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WARM AND MUGGY AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS SOLIDLY INTO THE 60S AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

ANY EVENING CONVECTION THEN CLEARS EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY AS ACTUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. STILL
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE SLOWLY DROPPING OVER TIME.

THEREAFTER...MEAN HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES AND WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. ONLY A MODEST AIR MASS CHANGE WITH HIGHS STILL SEASONABLY MILD
IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE. THEN TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ATOP THE REGION. LOWS QUITE PLEASANT...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA PREDOMINANTLY UNDER
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EASTERN US RIDGE NOSING INTO NEW
ENGLAND EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND BROAD TROUGH ESTABLISHED FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECT FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SURFACE FRONT.
BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS HIT THE UPPER TEENS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
VERY WARM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS...ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY UP A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE.

500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
US TIER STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH BEST UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW
PASSING TO NORTH...SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWS AND BECOMES ORIENTED
MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS
MOVING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE ECMWF HANGS IT UP IN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. HEDGED
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEPT CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY. RIGHT
NOW SATURDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER...
COINCIDING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES
DO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND LOWER HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR. AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. COVERAGE WILL BE HIT OR MISS SO OPTED TO USE
VCSH AND KEEP CONDITIONS VFR AT TAF SITES. SHOWERS TO MOVE WEST TO
EAST...INTO KMSS 12Z...THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 14-15Z...AND OUT OF
VERMONT BY 16-17Z. VFR P6SM AND SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT 20-24Z
TIMEFRAME COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG AFTER 06Z.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON







000
FXUS61 KOKX 020751
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
351 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN CROSSES THE
TRI-STATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS A CHALLENGING ONE. WHILE A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND REMAIN OVER MAINLY
WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES...APPEARS SHOULD HAVE A WEAK CAP DEVELOP
AROUND 650 HPA. SO EVEN WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE FORECAST...THE
WEAK CAP COUPLED WITH BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PROGGED TO OUR N...AND
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR 20 KT OR LESS UNTIL MAYBE VERY LATE IN THE
DAY OVER FAR W ZONES AS LOW-MID LEVEL JET APPROACHES THERE. APPEARS
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION IS OVER AREAS N/W OF NYC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW-MID LEVEL JET.

GIVEN ABOVE...FEEL THAT MOST LIKELY CAP HOLDS ON OVER THE SE 2/3
OF THE CWA...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THERE. HAVE CHANCE
POPS BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL
BE MAINLY OF THE PULSE VARIETY...WITH SOME MULTI-CELLULAR
STRUCTURES POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY ORANGE COUNTY
WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW-MID LEVEL JETS. BASED ON THIS FEEL SEVERE
THREAT IS MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. SHOULD SEE VALUES AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL -
FROM AROUND 90 TO THE MID 90S INLAND/NYC HEAT ISLAND...AND MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER
90S ACROSS URBAN NE NJ AND NYC THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FALL
SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 80-90 KT 300 HPA
JET...PASSING OF STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL JETS IN THE
EVENING...AND THE AREA UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS...COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 2 INCHES...THEN HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM THIS EVENING. REFER TO HYDROLOGY
SECTION OF THE AFD FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

HOWEVER...WILL BE WORKING AGAINST DIMINISH CAPE WITH THE LOSS OF
SOLAR HEATING...WITH BEST DYNAMICS PASSING TO THE N...BELIEVE THAT
ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...AND IT WAS NOT ALL THAT HIGH TO BEGIN WITH.

700-500 HPA SHORTWAVES LIFTS TO THE N/E OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR THINGS TO DRY OUT
LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVES.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM
850-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS SUNNY AND DRY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT HUMIDITY LEVELS TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING OFFSHORE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE
MODELS WANT TO LINGER SOME PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...DO NOT WANT TO RULE THIS OUT...SO WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED RIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS.  TEMPERATURES THEN FALL
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG LIKELY ALONG EASTERN TERMINALS...POSSIBLE
ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS.

ANY STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING...WITH VFR CONDS
IN AFTN.

LIGHT AND VRB WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THRU THE COMING
MORNING...GIVING WAY TO AFTN SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
COAST.

INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA THE COMING EVENING ACROSS NYC
TERMINALS AND TO THE W & NW WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL
MAINTAIN PROB30 NOW...GENERALLY THINKING BETWEEN 02-08Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WED THROUGH FRI...
.TUE NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFTING SW TO NW BEHIND FRONT
BETWEEN 06-12Z.
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
.SAT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT ON ANZ-350
TONIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND RESIDUAL 1-2 FT SWELLS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
NOT ALL THAT HIGH...SO DO NOT REFLECT IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SEAS SHOULD COME DOWN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SPOTTY SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY OVER AREAS N/W OF NYC...COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LESS THAN
0.2 INCHES OF BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...BC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...BC/MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KOKX 020751
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
351 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN CROSSES THE
TRI-STATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS A CHALLENGING ONE. WHILE A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND REMAIN OVER MAINLY
WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES...APPEARS SHOULD HAVE A WEAK CAP DEVELOP
AROUND 650 HPA. SO EVEN WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE FORECAST...THE
WEAK CAP COUPLED WITH BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PROGGED TO OUR N...AND
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR 20 KT OR LESS UNTIL MAYBE VERY LATE IN THE
DAY OVER FAR W ZONES AS LOW-MID LEVEL JET APPROACHES THERE. APPEARS
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION IS OVER AREAS N/W OF NYC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW-MID LEVEL JET.

GIVEN ABOVE...FEEL THAT MOST LIKELY CAP HOLDS ON OVER THE SE 2/3
OF THE CWA...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THERE. HAVE CHANCE
POPS BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL
BE MAINLY OF THE PULSE VARIETY...WITH SOME MULTI-CELLULAR
STRUCTURES POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY ORANGE COUNTY
WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW-MID LEVEL JETS. BASED ON THIS FEEL SEVERE
THREAT IS MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. SHOULD SEE VALUES AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL -
FROM AROUND 90 TO THE MID 90S INLAND/NYC HEAT ISLAND...AND MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER
90S ACROSS URBAN NE NJ AND NYC THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FALL
SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 80-90 KT 300 HPA
JET...PASSING OF STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL JETS IN THE
EVENING...AND THE AREA UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS...COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 2 INCHES...THEN HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM THIS EVENING. REFER TO HYDROLOGY
SECTION OF THE AFD FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

HOWEVER...WILL BE WORKING AGAINST DIMINISH CAPE WITH THE LOSS OF
SOLAR HEATING...WITH BEST DYNAMICS PASSING TO THE N...BELIEVE THAT
ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...AND IT WAS NOT ALL THAT HIGH TO BEGIN WITH.

700-500 HPA SHORTWAVES LIFTS TO THE N/E OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR THINGS TO DRY OUT
LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVES.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM
850-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS SUNNY AND DRY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT HUMIDITY LEVELS TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING OFFSHORE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE
MODELS WANT TO LINGER SOME PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...DO NOT WANT TO RULE THIS OUT...SO WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED RIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS.  TEMPERATURES THEN FALL
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG LIKELY ALONG EASTERN TERMINALS...POSSIBLE
ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS.

ANY STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING...WITH VFR CONDS
IN AFTN.

LIGHT AND VRB WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THRU THE COMING
MORNING...GIVING WAY TO AFTN SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
COAST.

INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA THE COMING EVENING ACROSS NYC
TERMINALS AND TO THE W & NW WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL
MAINTAIN PROB30 NOW...GENERALLY THINKING BETWEEN 02-08Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WED THROUGH FRI...
.TUE NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFTING SW TO NW BEHIND FRONT
BETWEEN 06-12Z.
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
.SAT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT ON ANZ-350
TONIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND RESIDUAL 1-2 FT SWELLS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
NOT ALL THAT HIGH...SO DO NOT REFLECT IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SEAS SHOULD COME DOWN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SPOTTY SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY OVER AREAS N/W OF NYC...COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LESS THAN
0.2 INCHES OF BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...BC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...BC/MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KOKX 020751
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
351 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN CROSSES THE
TRI-STATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS A CHALLENGING ONE. WHILE A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND REMAIN OVER MAINLY
WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES...APPEARS SHOULD HAVE A WEAK CAP DEVELOP
AROUND 650 HPA. SO EVEN WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE FORECAST...THE
WEAK CAP COUPLED WITH BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PROGGED TO OUR N...AND
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR 20 KT OR LESS UNTIL MAYBE VERY LATE IN THE
DAY OVER FAR W ZONES AS LOW-MID LEVEL JET APPROACHES THERE. APPEARS
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION IS OVER AREAS N/W OF NYC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW-MID LEVEL JET.

GIVEN ABOVE...FEEL THAT MOST LIKELY CAP HOLDS ON OVER THE SE 2/3
OF THE CWA...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THERE. HAVE CHANCE
POPS BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL
BE MAINLY OF THE PULSE VARIETY...WITH SOME MULTI-CELLULAR
STRUCTURES POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY ORANGE COUNTY
WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW-MID LEVEL JETS. BASED ON THIS FEEL SEVERE
THREAT IS MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. SHOULD SEE VALUES AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL -
FROM AROUND 90 TO THE MID 90S INLAND/NYC HEAT ISLAND...AND MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER
90S ACROSS URBAN NE NJ AND NYC THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FALL
SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 80-90 KT 300 HPA
JET...PASSING OF STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL JETS IN THE
EVENING...AND THE AREA UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS...COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 2 INCHES...THEN HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM THIS EVENING. REFER TO HYDROLOGY
SECTION OF THE AFD FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

HOWEVER...WILL BE WORKING AGAINST DIMINISH CAPE WITH THE LOSS OF
SOLAR HEATING...WITH BEST DYNAMICS PASSING TO THE N...BELIEVE THAT
ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...AND IT WAS NOT ALL THAT HIGH TO BEGIN WITH.

700-500 HPA SHORTWAVES LIFTS TO THE N/E OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR THINGS TO DRY OUT
LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVES.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM
850-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS SUNNY AND DRY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT HUMIDITY LEVELS TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING OFFSHORE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE
MODELS WANT TO LINGER SOME PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...DO NOT WANT TO RULE THIS OUT...SO WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED RIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS.  TEMPERATURES THEN FALL
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG LIKELY ALONG EASTERN TERMINALS...POSSIBLE
ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS.

ANY STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING...WITH VFR CONDS
IN AFTN.

LIGHT AND VRB WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THRU THE COMING
MORNING...GIVING WAY TO AFTN SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
COAST.

INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA THE COMING EVENING ACROSS NYC
TERMINALS AND TO THE W & NW WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL
MAINTAIN PROB30 NOW...GENERALLY THINKING BETWEEN 02-08Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WED THROUGH FRI...
.TUE NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFTING SW TO NW BEHIND FRONT
BETWEEN 06-12Z.
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
.SAT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT ON ANZ-350
TONIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND RESIDUAL 1-2 FT SWELLS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
NOT ALL THAT HIGH...SO DO NOT REFLECT IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SEAS SHOULD COME DOWN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SPOTTY SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY OVER AREAS N/W OF NYC...COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LESS THAN
0.2 INCHES OF BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...BC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...BC/MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KOKX 020751
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
351 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN CROSSES THE
TRI-STATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS A CHALLENGING ONE. WHILE A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND REMAIN OVER MAINLY
WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES...APPEARS SHOULD HAVE A WEAK CAP DEVELOP
AROUND 650 HPA. SO EVEN WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE FORECAST...THE
WEAK CAP COUPLED WITH BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PROGGED TO OUR N...AND
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR 20 KT OR LESS UNTIL MAYBE VERY LATE IN THE
DAY OVER FAR W ZONES AS LOW-MID LEVEL JET APPROACHES THERE. APPEARS
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION IS OVER AREAS N/W OF NYC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW-MID LEVEL JET.

GIVEN ABOVE...FEEL THAT MOST LIKELY CAP HOLDS ON OVER THE SE 2/3
OF THE CWA...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST THERE. HAVE CHANCE
POPS BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN BETWEEN. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL
BE MAINLY OF THE PULSE VARIETY...WITH SOME MULTI-CELLULAR
STRUCTURES POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY ORANGE COUNTY
WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW-MID LEVEL JETS. BASED ON THIS FEEL SEVERE
THREAT IS MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND MIXING DOWN FROM 875-850 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. SHOULD SEE VALUES AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL -
FROM AROUND 90 TO THE MID 90S INLAND/NYC HEAT ISLAND...AND MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER
90S ACROSS URBAN NE NJ AND NYC THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FALL
SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP
CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 80-90 KT 300 HPA
JET...PASSING OF STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL JETS IN THE
EVENING...AND THE AREA UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS...COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 2 INCHES...THEN HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM THIS EVENING. REFER TO HYDROLOGY
SECTION OF THE AFD FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

HOWEVER...WILL BE WORKING AGAINST DIMINISH CAPE WITH THE LOSS OF
SOLAR HEATING...WITH BEST DYNAMICS PASSING TO THE N...BELIEVE THAT
ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...AND IT WAS NOT ALL THAT HIGH TO BEGIN WITH.

700-500 HPA SHORTWAVES LIFTS TO THE N/E OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR THINGS TO DRY OUT
LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVES.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM
850-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS SUNNY AND DRY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT HUMIDITY LEVELS TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING OFFSHORE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE
MODELS WANT TO LINGER SOME PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...DO NOT WANT TO RULE THIS OUT...SO WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED RIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS.  TEMPERATURES THEN FALL
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG LIKELY ALONG EASTERN TERMINALS...POSSIBLE
ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS.

ANY STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING...WITH VFR CONDS
IN AFTN.

LIGHT AND VRB WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THRU THE COMING
MORNING...GIVING WAY TO AFTN SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
COAST.

INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA THE COMING EVENING ACROSS NYC
TERMINALS AND TO THE W & NW WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL
MAINTAIN PROB30 NOW...GENERALLY THINKING BETWEEN 02-08Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WED THROUGH FRI...
.TUE NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFTING SW TO NW BEHIND FRONT
BETWEEN 06-12Z.
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
.SAT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT ON ANZ-350
TONIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND RESIDUAL 1-2 FT SWELLS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
NOT ALL THAT HIGH...SO DO NOT REFLECT IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SEAS SHOULD COME DOWN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SPOTTY SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY OVER AREAS N/W OF NYC...COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LESS THAN
0.2 INCHES OF BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...BC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...BC/MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KBUF 020618
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
218 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WHILE DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AREA
TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES AND AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND BRING A RETURN TO DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS OVERNIGHT REGIONAL RADARS STILL DISPLAYING LINE OF
WEAKENING SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM MONROE COUNTY SOUTHEAST TO
CATTARAUGUS COUNTY ALL ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CROSSING
WESTERN NEW YORK. NORTHERN PART OF LINE HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY...CONTAINING JUST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...HOWEVER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER THERE ARE STILL A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH AND
EXITING CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES BEFORE EXITING TO THE
EAST...WHILE TO THE NORTH OF HERE THE LINE CONTINUES TO ALL BUT
FIZZLE OUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES REGION. THAT SAID...THE LLJ OF 30 KNOTS AT 850 HPA
SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA AND
POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN.

ON TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
SLIDE EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION...
WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT EASING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES...WHILE LARGE-SCALE
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OWING TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT/THE NOSE OF A 30-40 KT LOW-MID LEVEL
JET...SUPPORTING SYNOPTIC-SCALE DCVA/HEIGHT FALLS...AND INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+ KNOT
UPPER LEVEL JET. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ALL OF THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN FAIRLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION...FOR WHICH SOME
LIKELY TO LOW-END CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN PLAY.

WHILE THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND IN PLACE ALOFT TO KEEP
THINGS MOVING ALONG...GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS THERE STILL WILL
BE AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IF ANY STRONGER/HEAVIER CELLS MANAGE TO TRAIN REPEATEDLY
OVER A PARTICULAR AREA. THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT
LESS CLEAR GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...HOWEVER WITH 35-45 KNOTS WORTH OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN
PLACE...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF ATTENDANT
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY EXISTS PROVIDED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY CAN ULTIMATELY BE REALIZED. AT THIS POINT...A ROUGH
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL
EXIST FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICS WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED UPON EACH OTHER. NOT
COINCIDENTALLY... THIS AGREES QUITE WELL WITH SPC`S LATEST DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WHICH PORTRAYS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THIS PARTICULAR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. MOST 12Z GUIDANCE HAS THE TRAILING EDGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT ALONG THE SE BORDER OF THE CWA AT
00Z. ONCE THIS EXITS...EXPECT DRY WEATHER LATE TUESDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE MODESTLY COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH MOSTLY SKIES TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY.

ON THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE JET STREAM
WELL TO OUR NORTH IN CANADA. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
MINNESOTA THURSDAY...WITH MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION FORECAST TO
LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION STAYS DRY. A NAM/GFS CONSENSUS WARMS 850MB TEMPERATURES IN
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO +18C BY 00Z FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
THE FRONT...HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FACTOR FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH 12Z GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERING ON THE FRONTS
TIMING AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE BEHIND IT. THE FORECAST WILL
FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THIS GUIDANCE WHICH IS NOTABLY SLOWER THAN THE
12Z GGEM IN TERMS OF TIMING...AND WARMER THAN THE 12Z GFS WITH
POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY SHOULD SUMMER-LIKE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. THE FRONT IS
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH A
NIGHTTIME PASSAGE...EXPECT ONLY A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT...AND POSSIBLY BEHIND IT WITH SOME ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THIS GUIDANCE
DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO +5C...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT 06Z WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS OR
SO...BEFORE SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS...AND SOUTHERN TIER IFR CIGS
FORM ACROSS THE REGION JUST BEFORE DAWN.

PRE FRONTAL SURFACE IS NOW EAST OF THE KBUF/KIAG/KJHW
TERMINALS...TAKING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH
IT. KJHW SAW A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE PRECIPITATION...BUT
SKIES HAVE NOW SCATTERED OUT SINCE THE PRECIPITATION MOVED TO THE
EAST. THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER LAKE ERIE. THESE
ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE WHERE AIR IS
JUST A BIT MORE STABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER ANY OF THESE SHOWERS THAT DO HOLD TOGETHER ONCE ONSHORE
COULD BRING A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER TO ANYWHERE ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. MAY SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER AT KROC THROUGH
07Z WITH THE TROUGH AS IT PASSES THROUGH...THEN JUST SOME PASSING
CLOUDS AFTER THAT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BEFORE
REACHING THE KART AIRFIELD.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EASE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. COUPLED WITH INCREASING
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...WITH
SOME OF THESE POTENTIALLY BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...WHERE OVERALL
INSTABILITY APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE THE STRONGEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS...WITH CONDITIONS MOSTLY RETURNING TO VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY ON ON LAKE ERIE WHERE
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. WILL ISSUE A SCA
FOR LAKE ERIE THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME WINDS
NEARING 18-20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
FRONT ITSELF WILL ALSO PRODUCE A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY... A FEW OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE BRINGING A RETURN TO
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JM/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JM/THOMAS
MARINE...JM/THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 020618
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
218 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WHILE DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AREA
TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES AND AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND BRING A RETURN TO DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS OVERNIGHT REGIONAL RADARS STILL DISPLAYING LINE OF
WEAKENING SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM MONROE COUNTY SOUTHEAST TO
CATTARAUGUS COUNTY ALL ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CROSSING
WESTERN NEW YORK. NORTHERN PART OF LINE HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY...CONTAINING JUST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...HOWEVER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER THERE ARE STILL A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH AND
EXITING CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES BEFORE EXITING TO THE
EAST...WHILE TO THE NORTH OF HERE THE LINE CONTINUES TO ALL BUT
FIZZLE OUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES REGION. THAT SAID...THE LLJ OF 30 KNOTS AT 850 HPA
SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA AND
POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN.

ON TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
SLIDE EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION...
WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT EASING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES...WHILE LARGE-SCALE
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OWING TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT/THE NOSE OF A 30-40 KT LOW-MID LEVEL
JET...SUPPORTING SYNOPTIC-SCALE DCVA/HEIGHT FALLS...AND INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+ KNOT
UPPER LEVEL JET. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ALL OF THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN FAIRLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION...FOR WHICH SOME
LIKELY TO LOW-END CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN PLAY.

WHILE THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND IN PLACE ALOFT TO KEEP
THINGS MOVING ALONG...GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS THERE STILL WILL
BE AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IF ANY STRONGER/HEAVIER CELLS MANAGE TO TRAIN REPEATEDLY
OVER A PARTICULAR AREA. THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT
LESS CLEAR GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...HOWEVER WITH 35-45 KNOTS WORTH OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN
PLACE...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF ATTENDANT
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY EXISTS PROVIDED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY CAN ULTIMATELY BE REALIZED. AT THIS POINT...A ROUGH
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL
EXIST FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICS WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED UPON EACH OTHER. NOT
COINCIDENTALLY... THIS AGREES QUITE WELL WITH SPC`S LATEST DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WHICH PORTRAYS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THIS PARTICULAR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. MOST 12Z GUIDANCE HAS THE TRAILING EDGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT ALONG THE SE BORDER OF THE CWA AT
00Z. ONCE THIS EXITS...EXPECT DRY WEATHER LATE TUESDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE MODESTLY COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH MOSTLY SKIES TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY.

ON THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE JET STREAM
WELL TO OUR NORTH IN CANADA. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
MINNESOTA THURSDAY...WITH MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION FORECAST TO
LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION STAYS DRY. A NAM/GFS CONSENSUS WARMS 850MB TEMPERATURES IN
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO +18C BY 00Z FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
THE FRONT...HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FACTOR FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH 12Z GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERING ON THE FRONTS
TIMING AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE BEHIND IT. THE FORECAST WILL
FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THIS GUIDANCE WHICH IS NOTABLY SLOWER THAN THE
12Z GGEM IN TERMS OF TIMING...AND WARMER THAN THE 12Z GFS WITH
POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY SHOULD SUMMER-LIKE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. THE FRONT IS
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH A
NIGHTTIME PASSAGE...EXPECT ONLY A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT...AND POSSIBLY BEHIND IT WITH SOME ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THIS GUIDANCE
DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO +5C...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT 06Z WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS OR
SO...BEFORE SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS...AND SOUTHERN TIER IFR CIGS
FORM ACROSS THE REGION JUST BEFORE DAWN.

PRE FRONTAL SURFACE IS NOW EAST OF THE KBUF/KIAG/KJHW
TERMINALS...TAKING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH
IT. KJHW SAW A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE PRECIPITATION...BUT
SKIES HAVE NOW SCATTERED OUT SINCE THE PRECIPITATION MOVED TO THE
EAST. THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER LAKE ERIE. THESE
ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE WHERE AIR IS
JUST A BIT MORE STABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER ANY OF THESE SHOWERS THAT DO HOLD TOGETHER ONCE ONSHORE
COULD BRING A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER TO ANYWHERE ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. MAY SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER AT KROC THROUGH
07Z WITH THE TROUGH AS IT PASSES THROUGH...THEN JUST SOME PASSING
CLOUDS AFTER THAT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BEFORE
REACHING THE KART AIRFIELD.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EASE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. COUPLED WITH INCREASING
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...WITH
SOME OF THESE POTENTIALLY BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...WHERE OVERALL
INSTABILITY APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE THE STRONGEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS...WITH CONDITIONS MOSTLY RETURNING TO VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY ON ON LAKE ERIE WHERE
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. WILL ISSUE A SCA
FOR LAKE ERIE THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME WINDS
NEARING 18-20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
FRONT ITSELF WILL ALSO PRODUCE A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY... A FEW OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE BRINGING A RETURN TO
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JM/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JM/THOMAS
MARINE...JM/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBGM 020558
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
158 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE BUT HUMID. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRY WARM WEATHER WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
VERY QUIET AT THIS MOMENT...BUT HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY EARLY MORNING DUE TO PASSAGE OF A WEAK WAVE.
ALSO...THOUGH WE WILL HAVE INCREASING FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...SHALLOW PATCHY FOG STILL LOOKS LIKELY IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WITH AMOUNT OF NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE...AND
AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
MAKING FOR AN UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID NIGHT FOR THOSE WITHOUT AIR
CONDITIONING.

UPDATED GRIDS TO FINESSE TIMING BASED ON LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR MAIN BATCH OF STORMS TUESDAY...ROUGHLY 2PM WNW TO 9PM ESE.
STILL CONCERNED FOR RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AS PRIMARY THREAT...AS ALREADY DISCUSSED BELOW. LOCAL ANALOG
PROGRAM RETURNS SEVERAL PAST CASES WITH AT LEAST SPORADIC WIND
DAMAGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE TUESDAY. THE AMOUNT OF HEATING THAT
WE WILL SEE AHEAD OF THESE STORMS IS IN QUESTION TUESDAY AS THE
DAY WILL START WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. IN
ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS SPREADING EASTWARD OVER OUR
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION OVER THE MIDWEST.
DESPITE THESE FACTORS THE VERY WARM MOIST LOW-LEVELS WILL COMBINE
WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH
TO PRODUCE MLCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 1000-1500 J/KG... WITH 2000
J/KG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF SEVERAL HOURS OF SOLAR HEATING CAN
OCCUR. WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS EXPECTED...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH. THE LATEST 4 KM NAM INDICATES THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF STORMS BY AROUND 21Z OVER CENTRAL NY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD. BASED ON THESE FACTORS THE SPC HAS PUT OUR
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CIRCUMSTANCES.
WILL ADD A SEVERE MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EVERYTHING QUIETS DOWN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY START WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG
FOLLOWED BY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS
AND HUMIDITY WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WARM
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH WILL FEATURE A WEEKEND
FROPA. MAX TEMPS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON FRI WILL GET WELL INTO THE
8OS...WITH HIGHS GNRLY IN THE 65-70 RNG BY SUN/MON. BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FNT ON SAT...WITH COOLER TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER XPCTD FOR SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUE UPDATE... VRBL CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HRS...WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS...AND ALSO VSBY`S IN
BR/HZ/-SHRA AT MOST SITES...SPCLY IN THE 08-13Z TIME FRAME. AT
KELM...HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE A SHORT TIME WINDOW FOR DENSE
FOG FORMATION ARND DAYBREAK...SO HERE WE`VE INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR.

FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL...UNDERNEATH A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD. BY LATE AFTN...THOUGH...IT APPEARS THAT A LN OF SHWRS/TSTMS
WILL MARCH ACRS THE RGN...ALG AND JUST AHD OF A COLD FRNTL BNDRY.
FOR NOW...WE`VE PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA WITHIN A NARROW
2-HR TIME FRAME AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

THIS EVE...BEHIND THE COLD FRNT...IT APPEARS THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS ONCE AGN...SPCLY ACRS CNTRL/ERN NY. WE`VE
INTRODUCED THIS PSBLTY AT KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM ONLY.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/MSE
NEAR TERM...MDP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KAH/MLJ






000
FXUS61 KBGM 020558
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
158 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE BUT HUMID. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRY WARM WEATHER WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
VERY QUIET AT THIS MOMENT...BUT HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY EARLY MORNING DUE TO PASSAGE OF A WEAK WAVE.
ALSO...THOUGH WE WILL HAVE INCREASING FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...SHALLOW PATCHY FOG STILL LOOKS LIKELY IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WITH AMOUNT OF NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE...AND
AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
MAKING FOR AN UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID NIGHT FOR THOSE WITHOUT AIR
CONDITIONING.

UPDATED GRIDS TO FINESSE TIMING BASED ON LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR MAIN BATCH OF STORMS TUESDAY...ROUGHLY 2PM WNW TO 9PM ESE.
STILL CONCERNED FOR RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AS PRIMARY THREAT...AS ALREADY DISCUSSED BELOW. LOCAL ANALOG
PROGRAM RETURNS SEVERAL PAST CASES WITH AT LEAST SPORADIC WIND
DAMAGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE TUESDAY. THE AMOUNT OF HEATING THAT
WE WILL SEE AHEAD OF THESE STORMS IS IN QUESTION TUESDAY AS THE
DAY WILL START WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. IN
ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS SPREADING EASTWARD OVER OUR
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION OVER THE MIDWEST.
DESPITE THESE FACTORS THE VERY WARM MOIST LOW-LEVELS WILL COMBINE
WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH
TO PRODUCE MLCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 1000-1500 J/KG... WITH 2000
J/KG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF SEVERAL HOURS OF SOLAR HEATING CAN
OCCUR. WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS EXPECTED...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH. THE LATEST 4 KM NAM INDICATES THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF STORMS BY AROUND 21Z OVER CENTRAL NY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD. BASED ON THESE FACTORS THE SPC HAS PUT OUR
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CIRCUMSTANCES.
WILL ADD A SEVERE MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EVERYTHING QUIETS DOWN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY START WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG
FOLLOWED BY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS
AND HUMIDITY WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WARM
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH WILL FEATURE A WEEKEND
FROPA. MAX TEMPS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON FRI WILL GET WELL INTO THE
8OS...WITH HIGHS GNRLY IN THE 65-70 RNG BY SUN/MON. BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FNT ON SAT...WITH COOLER TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER XPCTD FOR SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUE UPDATE... VRBL CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HRS...WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS...AND ALSO VSBY`S IN
BR/HZ/-SHRA AT MOST SITES...SPCLY IN THE 08-13Z TIME FRAME. AT
KELM...HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE A SHORT TIME WINDOW FOR DENSE
FOG FORMATION ARND DAYBREAK...SO HERE WE`VE INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR.

FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL...UNDERNEATH A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD. BY LATE AFTN...THOUGH...IT APPEARS THAT A LN OF SHWRS/TSTMS
WILL MARCH ACRS THE RGN...ALG AND JUST AHD OF A COLD FRNTL BNDRY.
FOR NOW...WE`VE PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA WITHIN A NARROW
2-HR TIME FRAME AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

THIS EVE...BEHIND THE COLD FRNT...IT APPEARS THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS ONCE AGN...SPCLY ACRS CNTRL/ERN NY. WE`VE
INTRODUCED THIS PSBLTY AT KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM ONLY.

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/MSE
NEAR TERM...MDP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KAH/MLJ







000
FXUS61 KALY 020556
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...A FEW VERY SMALL SHOWERS HAVE POPPED ON THE
RADAR SCREEN. THE MESO-SCALE MODELS ALL WERE FORECASTING SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN EXTREMELY WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIPPLING THROUGH BUT NEVERTHELESS...HAVING INCREASED MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN TO WORK WITH.

WHILE WE BELIEVE MOST OF THE MESO-MODELS WERE OVERDOING THIS
ACTIVITY...WE FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO PLACE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE ANY RAINFALL...AND
EVEN WHERE IT HAPPENS...ANY SHOWER SHOULD NOT LAST MORE THAN A FEW
MINUTES.

WITH AN INCREASE IN PATCHY CLOUDS...AND IN SOME CASES...STILL A
BREEZE...WE BACKED OFF THE COVERAGE OF THE FOG. WE WILL NOW CALL IT
PATCHY FOG EVERYWHERE (AS OPPOSED TO AREAS OF FOG).

IT WAS AN EXCEPTIONALLY WARM NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...MAKING IT WARM
FOR EVEN A JULY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER.

OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION FOR A BIT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. PWATS COULD
BE QUITE HIGH...SO THE USUAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND STANDING
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...BUT
THEN DEEPER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN THE HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
COOL A LITTLE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH JUST THE START OF WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF SUN ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MIDWEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COAST.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
THE FCST AREA COULD GET UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL JET.  H850 TEMPS MAY RISE A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LATEST 12Z GFS INDICATING H850
TEMPS OF +17C TO +19C FOR FRIDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRIGGER
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A PRE FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY LATE FRI PM WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO NEAR 60F OVER THE MTNS AND HILLS...WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS.  MAX TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE
LATEST WPC VALUES WITH MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW 90F
READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GGEM THE FASTEST...AND THE ECMWF THE
SLOWEST.  WE HAVE FAVORED A 12Z GFS/WPC BLEND WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT...AND THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE REALIZED.  NONETHELESS...A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ON SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
U60S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND U50S TO L60S MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE M60S TO M70S
NORTH AND WEST OF ALY...AND U70S TO M80S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ENDING WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN TIER.  SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK WAVE FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.  A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM MIDWEST AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THERE MAYBE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN DACKS...BUT SUNDAY WAS KEPT DRY
AT THIS POINT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AS H850 TEMPS FALL TO +2C TO
+8C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL IN THE U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND MOSTLY U60S TO L70S OVER THE VALLEYS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED
NEAR SE ONTARIO AND NRN NY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL
WEATHER.  LOWS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S TO L50S WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS BEEN
SLOW TO FORM. WILL ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL MVFR FOG AT KPOU/KALB
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT KGFL WILL FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR
FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. AT KPSF IFR FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED...BUT IT IS NOT PERSISTENT...WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR FOG CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z ALL TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. BEGINNING 20Z TO 22Z
HAVE FORECAST A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH OR CALM THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 4 TO 8
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT
WITH FOG AND DEW FORMATION TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS EVENING SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR
LESS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AT LESS THAN 15
MPH. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT
EXPECT MANY IF ANY RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS












000
FXUS61 KALY 020556
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...A FEW VERY SMALL SHOWERS HAVE POPPED ON THE
RADAR SCREEN. THE MESO-SCALE MODELS ALL WERE FORECASTING SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN EXTREMELY WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIPPLING THROUGH BUT NEVERTHELESS...HAVING INCREASED MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN TO WORK WITH.

WHILE WE BELIEVE MOST OF THE MESO-MODELS WERE OVERDOING THIS
ACTIVITY...WE FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO PLACE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE ANY RAINFALL...AND
EVEN WHERE IT HAPPENS...ANY SHOWER SHOULD NOT LAST MORE THAN A FEW
MINUTES.

WITH AN INCREASE IN PATCHY CLOUDS...AND IN SOME CASES...STILL A
BREEZE...WE BACKED OFF THE COVERAGE OF THE FOG. WE WILL NOW CALL IT
PATCHY FOG EVERYWHERE (AS OPPOSED TO AREAS OF FOG).

IT WAS AN EXCEPTIONALLY WARM NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...MAKING IT WARM
FOR EVEN A JULY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER.

OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION FOR A BIT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. PWATS COULD
BE QUITE HIGH...SO THE USUAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND STANDING
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...BUT
THEN DEEPER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN THE HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
COOL A LITTLE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH JUST THE START OF WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF SUN ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MIDWEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COAST.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
THE FCST AREA COULD GET UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL JET.  H850 TEMPS MAY RISE A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LATEST 12Z GFS INDICATING H850
TEMPS OF +17C TO +19C FOR FRIDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRIGGER
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A PRE FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY LATE FRI PM WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO NEAR 60F OVER THE MTNS AND HILLS...WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS.  MAX TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE
LATEST WPC VALUES WITH MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW 90F
READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GGEM THE FASTEST...AND THE ECMWF THE
SLOWEST.  WE HAVE FAVORED A 12Z GFS/WPC BLEND WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT...AND THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE REALIZED.  NONETHELESS...A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ON SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
U60S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND U50S TO L60S MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE M60S TO M70S
NORTH AND WEST OF ALY...AND U70S TO M80S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ENDING WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN TIER.  SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK WAVE FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.  A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM MIDWEST AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THERE MAYBE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN DACKS...BUT SUNDAY WAS KEPT DRY
AT THIS POINT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AS H850 TEMPS FALL TO +2C TO
+8C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL IN THE U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND MOSTLY U60S TO L70S OVER THE VALLEYS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED
NEAR SE ONTARIO AND NRN NY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL
WEATHER.  LOWS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S TO L50S WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS BEEN
SLOW TO FORM. WILL ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL MVFR FOG AT KPOU/KALB
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT KGFL WILL FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR
FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. AT KPSF IFR FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED...BUT IT IS NOT PERSISTENT...WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR FOG CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z ALL TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. BEGINNING 20Z TO 22Z
HAVE FORECAST A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH OR CALM THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 4 TO 8
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT
WITH FOG AND DEW FORMATION TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS EVENING SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR
LESS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AT LESS THAN 15
MPH. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT
EXPECT MANY IF ANY RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS












000
FXUS61 KALY 020556
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...A FEW VERY SMALL SHOWERS HAVE POPPED ON THE
RADAR SCREEN. THE MESO-SCALE MODELS ALL WERE FORECASTING SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN EXTREMELY WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIPPLING THROUGH BUT NEVERTHELESS...HAVING INCREASED MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN TO WORK WITH.

WHILE WE BELIEVE MOST OF THE MESO-MODELS WERE OVERDOING THIS
ACTIVITY...WE FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO PLACE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE ANY RAINFALL...AND
EVEN WHERE IT HAPPENS...ANY SHOWER SHOULD NOT LAST MORE THAN A FEW
MINUTES.

WITH AN INCREASE IN PATCHY CLOUDS...AND IN SOME CASES...STILL A
BREEZE...WE BACKED OFF THE COVERAGE OF THE FOG. WE WILL NOW CALL IT
PATCHY FOG EVERYWHERE (AS OPPOSED TO AREAS OF FOG).

IT WAS AN EXCEPTIONALLY WARM NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...MAKING IT WARM
FOR EVEN A JULY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER.

OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION FOR A BIT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. PWATS COULD
BE QUITE HIGH...SO THE USUAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND STANDING
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...BUT
THEN DEEPER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN THE HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
COOL A LITTLE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH JUST THE START OF WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF SUN ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MIDWEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COAST.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
THE FCST AREA COULD GET UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL JET.  H850 TEMPS MAY RISE A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LATEST 12Z GFS INDICATING H850
TEMPS OF +17C TO +19C FOR FRIDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRIGGER
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A PRE FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY LATE FRI PM WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO NEAR 60F OVER THE MTNS AND HILLS...WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS.  MAX TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE
LATEST WPC VALUES WITH MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW 90F
READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GGEM THE FASTEST...AND THE ECMWF THE
SLOWEST.  WE HAVE FAVORED A 12Z GFS/WPC BLEND WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT...AND THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE REALIZED.  NONETHELESS...A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ON SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
U60S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND U50S TO L60S MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE M60S TO M70S
NORTH AND WEST OF ALY...AND U70S TO M80S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ENDING WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN TIER.  SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK WAVE FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.  A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM MIDWEST AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THERE MAYBE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN DACKS...BUT SUNDAY WAS KEPT DRY
AT THIS POINT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AS H850 TEMPS FALL TO +2C TO
+8C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL IN THE U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND MOSTLY U60S TO L70S OVER THE VALLEYS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED
NEAR SE ONTARIO AND NRN NY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL
WEATHER.  LOWS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S TO L50S WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS BEEN
SLOW TO FORM. WILL ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL MVFR FOG AT KPOU/KALB
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT KGFL WILL FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR
FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. AT KPSF IFR FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED...BUT IT IS NOT PERSISTENT...WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR FOG CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z ALL TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. BEGINNING 20Z TO 22Z
HAVE FORECAST A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH OR CALM THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 4 TO 8
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT
WITH FOG AND DEW FORMATION TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS EVENING SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR
LESS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AT LESS THAN 15
MPH. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT
EXPECT MANY IF ANY RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS












000
FXUS61 KALY 020556
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...A FEW VERY SMALL SHOWERS HAVE POPPED ON THE
RADAR SCREEN. THE MESO-SCALE MODELS ALL WERE FORECASTING SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN EXTREMELY WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIPPLING THROUGH BUT NEVERTHELESS...HAVING INCREASED MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN TO WORK WITH.

WHILE WE BELIEVE MOST OF THE MESO-MODELS WERE OVERDOING THIS
ACTIVITY...WE FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO PLACE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE ANY RAINFALL...AND
EVEN WHERE IT HAPPENS...ANY SHOWER SHOULD NOT LAST MORE THAN A FEW
MINUTES.

WITH AN INCREASE IN PATCHY CLOUDS...AND IN SOME CASES...STILL A
BREEZE...WE BACKED OFF THE COVERAGE OF THE FOG. WE WILL NOW CALL IT
PATCHY FOG EVERYWHERE (AS OPPOSED TO AREAS OF FOG).

IT WAS AN EXCEPTIONALLY WARM NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...MAKING IT WARM
FOR EVEN A JULY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER.

OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION FOR A BIT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. PWATS COULD
BE QUITE HIGH...SO THE USUAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND STANDING
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...BUT
THEN DEEPER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN THE HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
COOL A LITTLE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH JUST THE START OF WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF SUN ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MIDWEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COAST.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
THE FCST AREA COULD GET UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL JET.  H850 TEMPS MAY RISE A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LATEST 12Z GFS INDICATING H850
TEMPS OF +17C TO +19C FOR FRIDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRIGGER
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A PRE FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY LATE FRI PM WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO NEAR 60F OVER THE MTNS AND HILLS...WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS.  MAX TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE
LATEST WPC VALUES WITH MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW 90F
READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GGEM THE FASTEST...AND THE ECMWF THE
SLOWEST.  WE HAVE FAVORED A 12Z GFS/WPC BLEND WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT...AND THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE REALIZED.  NONETHELESS...A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ON SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
U60S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND U50S TO L60S MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE M60S TO M70S
NORTH AND WEST OF ALY...AND U70S TO M80S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ENDING WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN TIER.  SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK WAVE FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.  A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM MIDWEST AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THERE MAYBE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN DACKS...BUT SUNDAY WAS KEPT DRY
AT THIS POINT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AS H850 TEMPS FALL TO +2C TO
+8C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL IN THE U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND MOSTLY U60S TO L70S OVER THE VALLEYS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED
NEAR SE ONTARIO AND NRN NY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL
WEATHER.  LOWS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S TO L50S WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS BEEN
SLOW TO FORM. WILL ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL MVFR FOG AT KPOU/KALB
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT KGFL WILL FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR
FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. AT KPSF IFR FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED...BUT IT IS NOT PERSISTENT...WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR FOG CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z ALL TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. BEGINNING 20Z TO 22Z
HAVE FORECAST A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH OR CALM THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 4 TO 8
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT
WITH FOG AND DEW FORMATION TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS EVENING SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR
LESS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AT LESS THAN 15
MPH. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT
EXPECT MANY IF ANY RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS












000
FXUS61 KOKX 020542
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
142 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.
SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AND
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WELL AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. PATCHY FOG ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP AND EXPECTING MORE
OF THIS TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVELS STAYING MOIST.

MULTIPLE MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. DRIER UPPER LEVELS AND LESS SHEAR ALONG WITH
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF IT DEVELOPS NEAR OUR WESTERN ZONES. SHOWER/TSTM THREAT
BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THIS TROUGH...AND ENDS FOR MOST SPOTS
OVERNIGHT WHEN THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. CAPPED POPS
IN THE CHC CATEGORY. PARAMETERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE LESS OF POSSIBILITY DUE TO RELATIVELY
HIGH WBZ/FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS. TSTM STRENGTH DIMINISHES AFTER
EARLY EVENING WITH LESS CAPE IN SPITE OF BETTER LIFT FROM THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. PWATS STILL RATHER HIGH...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 17-18C...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND A SW FLOW...EXPECTING PARTS OF NE
NJ TO REACH INTO THE LOW-MID 90S...WITH LOW 90S IN THE CITY AND A
GOOD PORTION OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MOST OTHER SPOTS EXPECTED
TO END UP AT 85-90. REGARDING HEAT ADVISORY CONCERNS IN THE
CITY...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT A DECENT PORTION OF THE CITY WILL
REACH A HEAT INDEX OF AT LEAST 95 FOR AN HOUR OR TWO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...INDICES HAD FAILED TO REACH 95 MONDAY AFTERNOON. NO
ADVISORIES WILL THEREFORE BE POSTED AS PER LOCAL POLICY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
BY THURSDAY WHILE ALOFT THERE WILL BE A RATHER ZONAL PATTERN.
HUMIDITY LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL EASE UP A BIT AS DEWPOINTS
DROP TO THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THEY CREEP BACK UP TOWARDS THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S AGAIN ON FRIDAY ON THE RETURN FLOW WITH THE HIGH
OFFSHORE.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING OFFSHORE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME
MODEL CONSENSUS ON PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER. THE 00Z ECMWF STALLS
THE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE AND THERE WOULD BE A CHANCE FOR POST-FRONTAL
RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS AND CMC KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE...ENDING THE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...KEEPING SUNDAY DRY.
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ACTUALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD
FRONT...PUSHING IT OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT ALSO ENDS
IT SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DIFFER IN DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH LEAD TO LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE...THE FRONT HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS 06Z RUN. SO...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING...DRYING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS A CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIRMASS BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG LIKELY ALONG EASTERN TERMINALS...POSSIBLE
ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS.

ANY STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING...WITH VFR CONDS
IN AFTN.

LIGHT AND VRB WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THRU THE COMING
MORNING...GIVING WAY TO AFTN SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
COAST.

INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA THE COMING EVENING ACROSS NYC
TERMINALS AND TO THE W & NW WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL
MAINTAIN PROB30 NOW...GENERALLY THINKING BETWEEN 02-08Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WED THROUGH FRI...
.TUE NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFTING SW TO NW BEHIND FRONT
BETWEEN 06-12Z.
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
.SAT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT MOST OF THE TIME.
THERE COULD BE SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT WOULD LIKELY RESULT
IN NO MORE THAN LOCALIZED MINOR URBANIZED/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JC/JM
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SEARS/NV
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP






000
FXUS61 KOKX 020542
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
142 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.
SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AND
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WELL AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. PATCHY FOG ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP AND EXPECTING MORE
OF THIS TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVELS STAYING MOIST.

MULTIPLE MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. DRIER UPPER LEVELS AND LESS SHEAR ALONG WITH
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF IT DEVELOPS NEAR OUR WESTERN ZONES. SHOWER/TSTM THREAT
BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THIS TROUGH...AND ENDS FOR MOST SPOTS
OVERNIGHT WHEN THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. CAPPED POPS
IN THE CHC CATEGORY. PARAMETERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE LESS OF POSSIBILITY DUE TO RELATIVELY
HIGH WBZ/FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS. TSTM STRENGTH DIMINISHES AFTER
EARLY EVENING WITH LESS CAPE IN SPITE OF BETTER LIFT FROM THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. PWATS STILL RATHER HIGH...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 17-18C...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND A SW FLOW...EXPECTING PARTS OF NE
NJ TO REACH INTO THE LOW-MID 90S...WITH LOW 90S IN THE CITY AND A
GOOD PORTION OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MOST OTHER SPOTS EXPECTED
TO END UP AT 85-90. REGARDING HEAT ADVISORY CONCERNS IN THE
CITY...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT A DECENT PORTION OF THE CITY WILL
REACH A HEAT INDEX OF AT LEAST 95 FOR AN HOUR OR TWO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...INDICES HAD FAILED TO REACH 95 MONDAY AFTERNOON. NO
ADVISORIES WILL THEREFORE BE POSTED AS PER LOCAL POLICY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
BY THURSDAY WHILE ALOFT THERE WILL BE A RATHER ZONAL PATTERN.
HUMIDITY LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL EASE UP A BIT AS DEWPOINTS
DROP TO THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THEY CREEP BACK UP TOWARDS THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S AGAIN ON FRIDAY ON THE RETURN FLOW WITH THE HIGH
OFFSHORE.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING OFFSHORE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME
MODEL CONSENSUS ON PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER. THE 00Z ECMWF STALLS
THE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE AND THERE WOULD BE A CHANCE FOR POST-FRONTAL
RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS AND CMC KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE...ENDING THE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...KEEPING SUNDAY DRY.
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ACTUALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD
FRONT...PUSHING IT OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT ALSO ENDS
IT SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DIFFER IN DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH LEAD TO LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE...THE FRONT HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS 06Z RUN. SO...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING...DRYING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS A CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIRMASS BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG LIKELY ALONG EASTERN TERMINALS...POSSIBLE
ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS.

ANY STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING...WITH VFR CONDS
IN AFTN.

LIGHT AND VRB WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THRU THE COMING
MORNING...GIVING WAY TO AFTN SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
COAST.

INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA THE COMING EVENING ACROSS NYC
TERMINALS AND TO THE W & NW WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL
MAINTAIN PROB30 NOW...GENERALLY THINKING BETWEEN 02-08Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WED THROUGH FRI...
.TUE NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFTING SW TO NW BEHIND FRONT
BETWEEN 06-12Z.
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
.SAT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT MOST OF THE TIME.
THERE COULD BE SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT WOULD LIKELY RESULT
IN NO MORE THAN LOCALIZED MINOR URBANIZED/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JC/JM
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SEARS/NV
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP






000
FXUS61 KOKX 020542
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
142 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.
SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AND
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WELL AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. PATCHY FOG ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP AND EXPECTING MORE
OF THIS TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVELS STAYING MOIST.

MULTIPLE MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. DRIER UPPER LEVELS AND LESS SHEAR ALONG WITH
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF IT DEVELOPS NEAR OUR WESTERN ZONES. SHOWER/TSTM THREAT
BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THIS TROUGH...AND ENDS FOR MOST SPOTS
OVERNIGHT WHEN THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. CAPPED POPS
IN THE CHC CATEGORY. PARAMETERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE LESS OF POSSIBILITY DUE TO RELATIVELY
HIGH WBZ/FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS. TSTM STRENGTH DIMINISHES AFTER
EARLY EVENING WITH LESS CAPE IN SPITE OF BETTER LIFT FROM THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. PWATS STILL RATHER HIGH...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 17-18C...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND A SW FLOW...EXPECTING PARTS OF NE
NJ TO REACH INTO THE LOW-MID 90S...WITH LOW 90S IN THE CITY AND A
GOOD PORTION OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MOST OTHER SPOTS EXPECTED
TO END UP AT 85-90. REGARDING HEAT ADVISORY CONCERNS IN THE
CITY...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT A DECENT PORTION OF THE CITY WILL
REACH A HEAT INDEX OF AT LEAST 95 FOR AN HOUR OR TWO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...INDICES HAD FAILED TO REACH 95 MONDAY AFTERNOON. NO
ADVISORIES WILL THEREFORE BE POSTED AS PER LOCAL POLICY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
BY THURSDAY WHILE ALOFT THERE WILL BE A RATHER ZONAL PATTERN.
HUMIDITY LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL EASE UP A BIT AS DEWPOINTS
DROP TO THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THEY CREEP BACK UP TOWARDS THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S AGAIN ON FRIDAY ON THE RETURN FLOW WITH THE HIGH
OFFSHORE.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING OFFSHORE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME
MODEL CONSENSUS ON PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER. THE 00Z ECMWF STALLS
THE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE AND THERE WOULD BE A CHANCE FOR POST-FRONTAL
RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS AND CMC KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE...ENDING THE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...KEEPING SUNDAY DRY.
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ACTUALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD
FRONT...PUSHING IT OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT ALSO ENDS
IT SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DIFFER IN DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH LEAD TO LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE...THE FRONT HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS 06Z RUN. SO...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING...DRYING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS A CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIRMASS BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG LIKELY ALONG EASTERN TERMINALS...POSSIBLE
ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS.

ANY STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING...WITH VFR CONDS
IN AFTN.

LIGHT AND VRB WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THRU THE COMING
MORNING...GIVING WAY TO AFTN SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
COAST.

INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA THE COMING EVENING ACROSS NYC
TERMINALS AND TO THE W & NW WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL
MAINTAIN PROB30 NOW...GENERALLY THINKING BETWEEN 02-08Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WED THROUGH FRI...
.TUE NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFTING SW TO NW BEHIND FRONT
BETWEEN 06-12Z.
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
.SAT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT MOST OF THE TIME.
THERE COULD BE SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT WOULD LIKELY RESULT
IN NO MORE THAN LOCALIZED MINOR URBANIZED/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JC/JM
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SEARS/NV
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP






000
FXUS61 KOKX 020542
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
142 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.
SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AND
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WELL AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. PATCHY FOG ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP AND EXPECTING MORE
OF THIS TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVELS STAYING MOIST.

MULTIPLE MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. DRIER UPPER LEVELS AND LESS SHEAR ALONG WITH
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF IT DEVELOPS NEAR OUR WESTERN ZONES. SHOWER/TSTM THREAT
BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THIS TROUGH...AND ENDS FOR MOST SPOTS
OVERNIGHT WHEN THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. CAPPED POPS
IN THE CHC CATEGORY. PARAMETERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE LESS OF POSSIBILITY DUE TO RELATIVELY
HIGH WBZ/FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS. TSTM STRENGTH DIMINISHES AFTER
EARLY EVENING WITH LESS CAPE IN SPITE OF BETTER LIFT FROM THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. PWATS STILL RATHER HIGH...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 17-18C...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND A SW FLOW...EXPECTING PARTS OF NE
NJ TO REACH INTO THE LOW-MID 90S...WITH LOW 90S IN THE CITY AND A
GOOD PORTION OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MOST OTHER SPOTS EXPECTED
TO END UP AT 85-90. REGARDING HEAT ADVISORY CONCERNS IN THE
CITY...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT A DECENT PORTION OF THE CITY WILL
REACH A HEAT INDEX OF AT LEAST 95 FOR AN HOUR OR TWO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...INDICES HAD FAILED TO REACH 95 MONDAY AFTERNOON. NO
ADVISORIES WILL THEREFORE BE POSTED AS PER LOCAL POLICY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
BY THURSDAY WHILE ALOFT THERE WILL BE A RATHER ZONAL PATTERN.
HUMIDITY LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL EASE UP A BIT AS DEWPOINTS
DROP TO THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THEY CREEP BACK UP TOWARDS THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S AGAIN ON FRIDAY ON THE RETURN FLOW WITH THE HIGH
OFFSHORE.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING OFFSHORE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME
MODEL CONSENSUS ON PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER. THE 00Z ECMWF STALLS
THE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE AND THERE WOULD BE A CHANCE FOR POST-FRONTAL
RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS AND CMC KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE...ENDING THE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...KEEPING SUNDAY DRY.
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ACTUALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD
FRONT...PUSHING IT OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT ALSO ENDS
IT SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DIFFER IN DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH LEAD TO LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE...THE FRONT HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS 06Z RUN. SO...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING...DRYING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS A CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIRMASS BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG LIKELY ALONG EASTERN TERMINALS...POSSIBLE
ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS.

ANY STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING...WITH VFR CONDS
IN AFTN.

LIGHT AND VRB WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THRU THE COMING
MORNING...GIVING WAY TO AFTN SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
COAST.

INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA THE COMING EVENING ACROSS NYC
TERMINALS AND TO THE W & NW WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL
MAINTAIN PROB30 NOW...GENERALLY THINKING BETWEEN 02-08Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WED THROUGH FRI...
.TUE NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFTING SW TO NW BEHIND FRONT
BETWEEN 06-12Z.
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
.SAT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT MOST OF THE TIME.
THERE COULD BE SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT WOULD LIKELY RESULT
IN NO MORE THAN LOCALIZED MINOR URBANIZED/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JC/JM
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SEARS/NV
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP






000
FXUS61 KBTV 020531
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUATION
OF WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 106 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND
VERY LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT
CONDITIONS BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TRACK. IF THERE ARE GOING TO BE
ANY SHOWERS...IT WOULD BE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT MONDAY...MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN THE NEXT WEEK
THEN OCCURS TOMORROW AS WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION. WHILE BAROCLINICITY IS ONCE AGAIN FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR (~30-40KT) AND MODEST PBL
INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) ALONG FORERUNNING PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM
FAIRLY EASILY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD TREND STRONG...PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SEVERE CELL OR TWO...BY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD WHERE BETTER INSOLATION SHOULD OCCUR. BETTER
FORCING/HEATING DOES APPEAR TO SET UP JUST A BIT SOUTH OF US
THOUGH. GIVEN THIS SETUP I`VE ADDED PROGS FOR GUSTY WINDS/SMALL
HAIL IN THE WORDED FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS ACCORDINGLY...IN
FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO MOST RECENT 5 PCT SREF CALIBRATED
TSTM/SVR TSTM PROGS. CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WARM AND MUGGY AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS SOLIDLY INTO THE 60S AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

ANY EVENING CONVECTION THEN CLEARS EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY AS ACTUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. STILL
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE SLOWLY DROPPING OVER TIME.

THEREAFTER...MEAN HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES AND WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. ONLY A MODEST AIR MASS CHANGE WITH HIGHS STILL SEASONABLY MILD
IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE. THEN TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ATOP THE REGION. LOWS QUITE PLEASANT...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 203 PM EDT MONDAY...FA REMAINS IN SIMILAR PATTERN WITH BEING ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE WITH OCCASIONAL NRN
STREAM SYSTEMS DAMPENING RIDGE TEMPORARILY WITH CHANCCE SHRA/TSRA THEN
A RETURN TO DRY AND ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS.


ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SLIGHTLY WITH SURFACE
RIDGE IN CONTROL THU AND SLIDING SE ON FRIDAY. PRIMARILY DRY WITH
ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE U70S-L/M80S.

LATE FRI/FRIDAY NGT/SATURDAY...NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH
THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE FRONT. MAINLY DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASE SHRA/TSRA THREAT LATE ACRS ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. MAIN PUSH FOR SHRA WILL BE FRI NGT AS SURFACE FRONT SLIDES ACRS FA
AND LINGERING INTO SAT AS FLOW IS PARALLEL TO FRONT WITH HINT OF SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARY THUS CHANCCE LINGERING SHRA...ESP VT
EASTWARD.

ANOTHER NRN STREAM UPPER TROF TO MOVE ACRS FA ON SUN BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE...MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND NORMAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR. AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. COVERAGE WILL BE HIT OR MISS SO OPTED TO USE
VCSH AND KEEP CONDITIONS VFR AT TAF SITES. SHOWERS TO MOVE WEST TO
EAST...INTO KMSS 12Z...THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 14-15Z...AND OUT OF
VERMONT BY 16-17Z. VFR P6SM AND SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT 20-24Z
TIMEFRAME COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG AFTER 06Z.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...HANSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 020531
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUATION
OF WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 106 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND
VERY LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT
CONDITIONS BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TRACK. IF THERE ARE GOING TO BE
ANY SHOWERS...IT WOULD BE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT MONDAY...MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN THE NEXT WEEK
THEN OCCURS TOMORROW AS WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION. WHILE BAROCLINICITY IS ONCE AGAIN FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR (~30-40KT) AND MODEST PBL
INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) ALONG FORERUNNING PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM
FAIRLY EASILY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD TREND STRONG...PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SEVERE CELL OR TWO...BY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD WHERE BETTER INSOLATION SHOULD OCCUR. BETTER
FORCING/HEATING DOES APPEAR TO SET UP JUST A BIT SOUTH OF US
THOUGH. GIVEN THIS SETUP I`VE ADDED PROGS FOR GUSTY WINDS/SMALL
HAIL IN THE WORDED FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS ACCORDINGLY...IN
FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO MOST RECENT 5 PCT SREF CALIBRATED
TSTM/SVR TSTM PROGS. CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WARM AND MUGGY AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS SOLIDLY INTO THE 60S AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

ANY EVENING CONVECTION THEN CLEARS EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY AS ACTUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. STILL
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE SLOWLY DROPPING OVER TIME.

THEREAFTER...MEAN HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES AND WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. ONLY A MODEST AIR MASS CHANGE WITH HIGHS STILL SEASONABLY MILD
IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE. THEN TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ATOP THE REGION. LOWS QUITE PLEASANT...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 203 PM EDT MONDAY...FA REMAINS IN SIMILAR PATTERN WITH BEING ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE WITH OCCASIONAL NRN
STREAM SYSTEMS DAMPENING RIDGE TEMPORARILY WITH CHANCCE SHRA/TSRA THEN
A RETURN TO DRY AND ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS.


ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SLIGHTLY WITH SURFACE
RIDGE IN CONTROL THU AND SLIDING SE ON FRIDAY. PRIMARILY DRY WITH
ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE U70S-L/M80S.

LATE FRI/FRIDAY NGT/SATURDAY...NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH
THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE FRONT. MAINLY DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASE SHRA/TSRA THREAT LATE ACRS ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. MAIN PUSH FOR SHRA WILL BE FRI NGT AS SURFACE FRONT SLIDES ACRS FA
AND LINGERING INTO SAT AS FLOW IS PARALLEL TO FRONT WITH HINT OF SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARY THUS CHANCCE LINGERING SHRA...ESP VT
EASTWARD.

ANOTHER NRN STREAM UPPER TROF TO MOVE ACRS FA ON SUN BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE...MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND NORMAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR. AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. COVERAGE WILL BE HIT OR MISS SO OPTED TO USE
VCSH AND KEEP CONDITIONS VFR AT TAF SITES. SHOWERS TO MOVE WEST TO
EAST...INTO KMSS 12Z...THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 14-15Z...AND OUT OF
VERMONT BY 16-17Z. VFR P6SM AND SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT 20-24Z
TIMEFRAME COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG AFTER 06Z.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...HANSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 020531
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUATION
OF WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 106 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND
VERY LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT
CONDITIONS BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TRACK. IF THERE ARE GOING TO BE
ANY SHOWERS...IT WOULD BE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT MONDAY...MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN THE NEXT WEEK
THEN OCCURS TOMORROW AS WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION. WHILE BAROCLINICITY IS ONCE AGAIN FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR (~30-40KT) AND MODEST PBL
INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) ALONG FORERUNNING PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM
FAIRLY EASILY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD TREND STRONG...PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SEVERE CELL OR TWO...BY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD WHERE BETTER INSOLATION SHOULD OCCUR. BETTER
FORCING/HEATING DOES APPEAR TO SET UP JUST A BIT SOUTH OF US
THOUGH. GIVEN THIS SETUP I`VE ADDED PROGS FOR GUSTY WINDS/SMALL
HAIL IN THE WORDED FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS ACCORDINGLY...IN
FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO MOST RECENT 5 PCT SREF CALIBRATED
TSTM/SVR TSTM PROGS. CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WARM AND MUGGY AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS SOLIDLY INTO THE 60S AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

ANY EVENING CONVECTION THEN CLEARS EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY AS ACTUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. STILL
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE SLOWLY DROPPING OVER TIME.

THEREAFTER...MEAN HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES AND WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. ONLY A MODEST AIR MASS CHANGE WITH HIGHS STILL SEASONABLY MILD
IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE. THEN TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ATOP THE REGION. LOWS QUITE PLEASANT...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 203 PM EDT MONDAY...FA REMAINS IN SIMILAR PATTERN WITH BEING ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE WITH OCCASIONAL NRN
STREAM SYSTEMS DAMPENING RIDGE TEMPORARILY WITH CHANCCE SHRA/TSRA THEN
A RETURN TO DRY AND ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS.


ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SLIGHTLY WITH SURFACE
RIDGE IN CONTROL THU AND SLIDING SE ON FRIDAY. PRIMARILY DRY WITH
ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE U70S-L/M80S.

LATE FRI/FRIDAY NGT/SATURDAY...NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH
THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE FRONT. MAINLY DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASE SHRA/TSRA THREAT LATE ACRS ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. MAIN PUSH FOR SHRA WILL BE FRI NGT AS SURFACE FRONT SLIDES ACRS FA
AND LINGERING INTO SAT AS FLOW IS PARALLEL TO FRONT WITH HINT OF SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARY THUS CHANCCE LINGERING SHRA...ESP VT
EASTWARD.

ANOTHER NRN STREAM UPPER TROF TO MOVE ACRS FA ON SUN BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE...MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND NORMAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR. AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. COVERAGE WILL BE HIT OR MISS SO OPTED TO USE
VCSH AND KEEP CONDITIONS VFR AT TAF SITES. SHOWERS TO MOVE WEST TO
EAST...INTO KMSS 12Z...THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 14-15Z...AND OUT OF
VERMONT BY 16-17Z. VFR P6SM AND SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT 20-24Z
TIMEFRAME COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG AFTER 06Z.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...HANSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 020531
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUATION
OF WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 106 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND
VERY LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT
CONDITIONS BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TRACK. IF THERE ARE GOING TO BE
ANY SHOWERS...IT WOULD BE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT MONDAY...MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN THE NEXT WEEK
THEN OCCURS TOMORROW AS WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION. WHILE BAROCLINICITY IS ONCE AGAIN FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR (~30-40KT) AND MODEST PBL
INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) ALONG FORERUNNING PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM
FAIRLY EASILY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD TREND STRONG...PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SEVERE CELL OR TWO...BY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD WHERE BETTER INSOLATION SHOULD OCCUR. BETTER
FORCING/HEATING DOES APPEAR TO SET UP JUST A BIT SOUTH OF US
THOUGH. GIVEN THIS SETUP I`VE ADDED PROGS FOR GUSTY WINDS/SMALL
HAIL IN THE WORDED FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS ACCORDINGLY...IN
FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO MOST RECENT 5 PCT SREF CALIBRATED
TSTM/SVR TSTM PROGS. CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WARM AND MUGGY AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS SOLIDLY INTO THE 60S AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

ANY EVENING CONVECTION THEN CLEARS EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY AS ACTUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. STILL
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE SLOWLY DROPPING OVER TIME.

THEREAFTER...MEAN HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES AND WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. ONLY A MODEST AIR MASS CHANGE WITH HIGHS STILL SEASONABLY MILD
IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE. THEN TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ATOP THE REGION. LOWS QUITE PLEASANT...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 203 PM EDT MONDAY...FA REMAINS IN SIMILAR PATTERN WITH BEING ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE WITH OCCASIONAL NRN
STREAM SYSTEMS DAMPENING RIDGE TEMPORARILY WITH CHANCCE SHRA/TSRA THEN
A RETURN TO DRY AND ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS.


ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SLIGHTLY WITH SURFACE
RIDGE IN CONTROL THU AND SLIDING SE ON FRIDAY. PRIMARILY DRY WITH
ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE U70S-L/M80S.

LATE FRI/FRIDAY NGT/SATURDAY...NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH
THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE FRONT. MAINLY DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASE SHRA/TSRA THREAT LATE ACRS ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. MAIN PUSH FOR SHRA WILL BE FRI NGT AS SURFACE FRONT SLIDES ACRS FA
AND LINGERING INTO SAT AS FLOW IS PARALLEL TO FRONT WITH HINT OF SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARY THUS CHANCCE LINGERING SHRA...ESP VT
EASTWARD.

ANOTHER NRN STREAM UPPER TROF TO MOVE ACRS FA ON SUN BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE...MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND NORMAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR. AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. COVERAGE WILL BE HIT OR MISS SO OPTED TO USE
VCSH AND KEEP CONDITIONS VFR AT TAF SITES. SHOWERS TO MOVE WEST TO
EAST...INTO KMSS 12Z...THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 14-15Z...AND OUT OF
VERMONT BY 16-17Z. VFR P6SM AND SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT 20-24Z
TIMEFRAME COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG AFTER 06Z.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...HANSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 020506
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
106 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUATION
OF WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 106 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND
VERY LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT
CONDITIONS BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TRACK. IF THERE ARE GOING TO BE
ANY SHOWERS...IT WOULD BE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT MONDAY...MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN THE NEXT WEEK
THEN OCCURS TOMORROW AS WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION. WHILE BAROCLINICITY IS ONCE AGAIN FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR (~30-40KT) AND MODEST PBL
INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) ALONG FORERUNNING PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM
FAIRLY EASILY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD TREND STRONG...PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SEVERE CELL OR TWO...BY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD WHERE BETTER INSOLATION SHOULD OCCUR. BETTER
FORCING/HEATING DOES APPEAR TO SET UP JUST A BIT SOUTH OF US
THOUGH. GIVEN THIS SETUP I`VE ADDED PROGS FOR GUSTY WINDS/SMALL
HAIL IN THE WORDED FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS ACCORDINGLY...IN
FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO MOST RECENT 5 PCT SREF CALIBRATED
TSTM/SVR TSTM PROGS. CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WARM AND MUGGY AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS SOLIDLY INTO THE 60S AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

ANY EVENING CONVECTION THEN CLEARS EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY AS ACTUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. STILL
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE SLOWLY DROPPING OVER TIME.

THEREAFTER...MEAN HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES AND WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. ONLY A MODEST AIR MASS CHANGE WITH HIGHS STILL SEASONABLY MILD
IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE. THEN TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ATOP THE REGION. LOWS QUITE PLEASANT...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 203 PM EDT MONDAY...FA REMAINS IN SIMILAR PATTERN WITH BEING ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE WITH OCCASIONAL NRN
STREAM SYSTEMS DAMPENING RIDGE TEMPORARILY WITH CHANCCE SHRA/TSRA THEN
A RETURN TO DRY AND ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS.


ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SLIGHTLY WITH SURFACE
RIDGE IN CONTROL THU AND SLIDING SE ON FRIDAY. PRIMARILY DRY WITH
ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE U70S-L/M80S.

LATE FRI/FRIDAY NGT/SATURDAY...NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH
THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE FRONT. MAINLY DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASE SHRA/TSRA THREAT LATE ACRS ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. MAIN PUSH FOR SHRA WILL BE FRI NGT AS SURFACE FRONT SLIDES ACRS FA
AND LINGERING INTO SAT AS FLOW IS PARALLEL TO FRONT WITH HINT OF SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARY THUS CHANCCE LINGERING SHRA...ESP VT
EASTWARD.

ANOTHER NRN STREAM UPPER TROF TO MOVE ACRS FA ON SUN BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE...MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND NORMAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL RETURN TO KMPV AND KSLK AFTER 06Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS WHICH
WILL PERSIST TILL ABOUT 13Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP TOWARDS MIDDAY TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VERMONT. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
MAY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH
MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG AFTER 06Z.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 020506
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
106 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUATION
OF WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 106 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND
VERY LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT
CONDITIONS BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TRACK. IF THERE ARE GOING TO BE
ANY SHOWERS...IT WOULD BE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT MONDAY...MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN THE NEXT WEEK
THEN OCCURS TOMORROW AS WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION. WHILE BAROCLINICITY IS ONCE AGAIN FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR (~30-40KT) AND MODEST PBL
INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) ALONG FORERUNNING PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM
FAIRLY EASILY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD TREND STRONG...PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SEVERE CELL OR TWO...BY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD WHERE BETTER INSOLATION SHOULD OCCUR. BETTER
FORCING/HEATING DOES APPEAR TO SET UP JUST A BIT SOUTH OF US
THOUGH. GIVEN THIS SETUP I`VE ADDED PROGS FOR GUSTY WINDS/SMALL
HAIL IN THE WORDED FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS ACCORDINGLY...IN
FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO MOST RECENT 5 PCT SREF CALIBRATED
TSTM/SVR TSTM PROGS. CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WARM AND MUGGY AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS SOLIDLY INTO THE 60S AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

ANY EVENING CONVECTION THEN CLEARS EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY AS ACTUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. STILL
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE SLOWLY DROPPING OVER TIME.

THEREAFTER...MEAN HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES AND WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. ONLY A MODEST AIR MASS CHANGE WITH HIGHS STILL SEASONABLY MILD
IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE. THEN TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ATOP THE REGION. LOWS QUITE PLEASANT...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 203 PM EDT MONDAY...FA REMAINS IN SIMILAR PATTERN WITH BEING ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE WITH OCCASIONAL NRN
STREAM SYSTEMS DAMPENING RIDGE TEMPORARILY WITH CHANCCE SHRA/TSRA THEN
A RETURN TO DRY AND ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS.


ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SLIGHTLY WITH SURFACE
RIDGE IN CONTROL THU AND SLIDING SE ON FRIDAY. PRIMARILY DRY WITH
ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE U70S-L/M80S.

LATE FRI/FRIDAY NGT/SATURDAY...NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH
THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE FRONT. MAINLY DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASE SHRA/TSRA THREAT LATE ACRS ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. MAIN PUSH FOR SHRA WILL BE FRI NGT AS SURFACE FRONT SLIDES ACRS FA
AND LINGERING INTO SAT AS FLOW IS PARALLEL TO FRONT WITH HINT OF SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARY THUS CHANCCE LINGERING SHRA...ESP VT
EASTWARD.

ANOTHER NRN STREAM UPPER TROF TO MOVE ACRS FA ON SUN BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE...MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND NORMAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL RETURN TO KMPV AND KSLK AFTER 06Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS WHICH
WILL PERSIST TILL ABOUT 13Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP TOWARDS MIDDAY TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VERMONT. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
MAY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH
MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG AFTER 06Z.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...RJS








000
FXUS61 KALY 020440
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1240 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...A FEW VERY SMALL SHOWERS HAVE POPPED ON THE
RADAR SCREEN. THE MESO-SCALE MODELS ALL WERE FORECASTING SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN EXTREMELY WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIPPLING THROUGH BUT NEVERTHELESS...HAVING INCREASED MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN TO WORK WITH.

WHILE WE BELIEVE MOST OF THE MESO-MODELS WERE OVERDOING THIS
ACTIVITY...WE FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO PLACE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE ANY RAINFALL...AND
EVEN WHERE IT HAPPENS...ANY SHOWER SHOULD NOT LAST MORE THAN A FEW
MINUTES.

WITH AN INCREASE IN PATCHY CLOUDS...AND IN SOME CASES...STILL A
BREEZE...WE BACKED OFF THE COVERAGE OF THE FOG. WE WILL NOW CALL IT
PATCHY FOG EVERYWHERE (AS OPPOSED TO AREAS OF FOG).

IT WAS AN EXCEPTIONALLY WARM NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...MAKING IT WARM
FOR EVEN A JULY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER.

OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION FOR A BIT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. PWATS COULD
BE QUITE HIGH...SO THE USUAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND STANDING
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...BUT
THEN DEEPER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN THE HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
COOL A LITTLE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH JUST THE START OF WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF SUN ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MIDWEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COAST.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
THE FCST AREA COULD GET UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL JET.  H850 TEMPS MAY RISE A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LATEST 12Z GFS INDICATING H850
TEMPS OF +17C TO +19C FOR FRIDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRIGGER
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A PRE FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY LATE FRI PM WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO NEAR 60F OVER THE MTNS AND HILLS...WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS.  MAX TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE
LATEST WPC VALUES WITH MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW 90F
READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GGEM THE FASTEST...AND THE ECMWF THE
SLOWEST.  WE HAVE FAVORED A 12Z GFS/WPC BLEND WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT...AND THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE REALIZED.  NONETHELESS...A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ON SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
U60S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND U50S TO L60S MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE M60S TO M70S
NORTH AND WEST OF ALY...AND U70S TO M80S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ENDING WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN TIER.  SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK WAVE FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.  A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM MIDWEST AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THERE MAYBE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN DACKS...BUT SUNDAY WAS KEPT DRY
AT THIS POINT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AS H850 TEMPS FALL TO +2C TO
+8C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL IN THE U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND MOSTLY U60S TO L70S OVER THE VALLEYS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED
NEAR SE ONTARIO AND NRN NY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL
WEATHER.  LOWS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S TO L50S WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER...LOW
STRATUS/FOG/MIST WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY FOR IFR CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT THE TREND 24 HRS
AGO...WE WILL ATTEMPT TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND IN THIS SET OF TAFS.

FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNRISE. THEN WE SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TO THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 AND
CONTINUE TO ADJUST TIMING PER TRENDS AS THEY EVOLVE DURING TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT
WITH FOG AND DEW FORMATION TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS EVENING SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR
LESS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AT LESS THAN 15
MPH. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT
EXPECT MANY IF ANY RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...BGM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS










000
FXUS61 KALY 020440
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1240 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...A FEW VERY SMALL SHOWERS HAVE POPPED ON THE
RADAR SCREEN. THE MESO-SCALE MODELS ALL WERE FORECASTING SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN EXTREMELY WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIPPLING THROUGH BUT NEVERTHELESS...HAVING INCREASED MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN TO WORK WITH.

WHILE WE BELIEVE MOST OF THE MESO-MODELS WERE OVERDOING THIS
ACTIVITY...WE FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO PLACE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE ANY RAINFALL...AND
EVEN WHERE IT HAPPENS...ANY SHOWER SHOULD NOT LAST MORE THAN A FEW
MINUTES.

WITH AN INCREASE IN PATCHY CLOUDS...AND IN SOME CASES...STILL A
BREEZE...WE BACKED OFF THE COVERAGE OF THE FOG. WE WILL NOW CALL IT
PATCHY FOG EVERYWHERE (AS OPPOSED TO AREAS OF FOG).

IT WAS AN EXCEPTIONALLY WARM NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...MAKING IT WARM
FOR EVEN A JULY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER.

OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION FOR A BIT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. PWATS COULD
BE QUITE HIGH...SO THE USUAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND STANDING
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...BUT
THEN DEEPER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN THE HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
COOL A LITTLE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH JUST THE START OF WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF SUN ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MIDWEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COAST.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
THE FCST AREA COULD GET UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL JET.  H850 TEMPS MAY RISE A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LATEST 12Z GFS INDICATING H850
TEMPS OF +17C TO +19C FOR FRIDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRIGGER
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A PRE FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY LATE FRI PM WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO NEAR 60F OVER THE MTNS AND HILLS...WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS.  MAX TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE
LATEST WPC VALUES WITH MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW 90F
READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GGEM THE FASTEST...AND THE ECMWF THE
SLOWEST.  WE HAVE FAVORED A 12Z GFS/WPC BLEND WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT...AND THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE REALIZED.  NONETHELESS...A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ON SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
U60S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND U50S TO L60S MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE M60S TO M70S
NORTH AND WEST OF ALY...AND U70S TO M80S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ENDING WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN TIER.  SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK WAVE FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.  A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM MIDWEST AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THERE MAYBE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN DACKS...BUT SUNDAY WAS KEPT DRY
AT THIS POINT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AS H850 TEMPS FALL TO +2C TO
+8C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL IN THE U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND MOSTLY U60S TO L70S OVER THE VALLEYS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED
NEAR SE ONTARIO AND NRN NY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL
WEATHER.  LOWS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S TO L50S WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER...LOW
STRATUS/FOG/MIST WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY FOR IFR CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT THE TREND 24 HRS
AGO...WE WILL ATTEMPT TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND IN THIS SET OF TAFS.

FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNRISE. THEN WE SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TO THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 AND
CONTINUE TO ADJUST TIMING PER TRENDS AS THEY EVOLVE DURING TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT
WITH FOG AND DEW FORMATION TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS EVENING SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR
LESS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AT LESS THAN 15
MPH. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT
EXPECT MANY IF ANY RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...BGM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 020254
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1054 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.
SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AND
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WELL AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. PATCHY FOG ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP AND EXPECTING MORE
OF THIS TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVELS STAYING MOIST.

MULTIPLE MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. DRIER UPPER LEVELS AND LESS SHEAR ALONG WITH
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT
SHOWERS WERE REMOVED FOR THE FORECAST COVERING THE REST OF TONIGHT
WITH ANY PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS BEING AT MOST AROUND 10 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF IT DEVELOPS NEAR OUR WESTERN ZONES. SHOWER/TSTM THREAT
BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THIS TROUGH...AND ENDS FOR MOST SPOTS
OVERNIGHT WHEN THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. CAPPED POPS
IN THE CHC CATEGORY. PARAMETERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE LESS OF POSSIBILITY DUE TO RELATIVELY
HIGH WBZ/FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS. TSTM STRENGTH DIMINISHES AFTER
EARLY EVENING WITH LESS CAPE IN SPITE OF BETTER LIFT FROM THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. PWATS STILL RATHER HIGH...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 17-18C...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND A SW FLOW...EXPECTING PARTS OF NE
NJ TO REACH INTO THE LOW-MID 90S...WITH LOW 90S IN THE CITY AND A
GOOD PORTION OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MOST OTHER SPOTS EXPECTED
TO END UP AT 85-90. REGARDING HEAT ADVISORY CONCERNS IN THE
CITY...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT A DECENT PORTION OF THE CITY WILL
REACH A HEAT INDEX OF AT LEAST 95 FOR AN HOUR OR TWO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...INDICES HAD FAILED TO REACH 95 MONDAY AFTERNOON. NO
ADVISORIES WILL THEREFORE BE POSTED AS PER LOCAL POLICY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
BY THURSDAY WHILE ALOFT THERE WILL BE A RATHER ZONAL PATTERN.
HUMIDITY LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL EASE UP A BIT AS DEWPOINTS
DROP TO THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THEY CREEP BACK UP TOWARDS THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S AGAIN ON FRIDAY ON THE RETURN FLOW WITH THE HIGH
OFFSHORE.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING OFFSHORE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME
MODEL CONSENSUS ON PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER. THE 00Z ECMWF STALLS
THE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE AND THERE WOULD BE A CHANCE FOR POST-FRONTAL
RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS AND CMC KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE...ENDING THE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...KEEPING SUNDAY DRY.
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ACTUALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD
FRONT...PUSHING IT OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT ALSO ENDS
IT SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DIFFER IN DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH LEAD TO LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE...THE FRONT HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS 06Z RUN. SO...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING...DRYING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS A CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIRMASS BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY.

MVFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG LIKELY ALONG EASTERN TERMINALS...POSSIBLE
ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS.

ANY STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING...WITH VFR CONDS
IN AFT.

LIGHT SW WINDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...GIVING WAY TO
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST.

INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA TUE EVENING ACROSS NYC
TERMINALS AND TO THE W & NW WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WED THROUGH FRI...
.TUE NIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED EVE/NIGHTTIME SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
.SAT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT MOST OF THE TIME.
THERE COULD BE SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT WOULD LIKELY RESULT
IN NO MORE THAN LOCALIZED MINOR URBANIZED/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP









000
FXUS61 KOKX 020254
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1054 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.
SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AND
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WELL AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. PATCHY FOG ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP AND EXPECTING MORE
OF THIS TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVELS STAYING MOIST.

MULTIPLE MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. DRIER UPPER LEVELS AND LESS SHEAR ALONG WITH
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT
SHOWERS WERE REMOVED FOR THE FORECAST COVERING THE REST OF TONIGHT
WITH ANY PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS BEING AT MOST AROUND 10 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF IT DEVELOPS NEAR OUR WESTERN ZONES. SHOWER/TSTM THREAT
BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THIS TROUGH...AND ENDS FOR MOST SPOTS
OVERNIGHT WHEN THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. CAPPED POPS
IN THE CHC CATEGORY. PARAMETERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE LESS OF POSSIBILITY DUE TO RELATIVELY
HIGH WBZ/FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS. TSTM STRENGTH DIMINISHES AFTER
EARLY EVENING WITH LESS CAPE IN SPITE OF BETTER LIFT FROM THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. PWATS STILL RATHER HIGH...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 17-18C...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND A SW FLOW...EXPECTING PARTS OF NE
NJ TO REACH INTO THE LOW-MID 90S...WITH LOW 90S IN THE CITY AND A
GOOD PORTION OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MOST OTHER SPOTS EXPECTED
TO END UP AT 85-90. REGARDING HEAT ADVISORY CONCERNS IN THE
CITY...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT A DECENT PORTION OF THE CITY WILL
REACH A HEAT INDEX OF AT LEAST 95 FOR AN HOUR OR TWO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...INDICES HAD FAILED TO REACH 95 MONDAY AFTERNOON. NO
ADVISORIES WILL THEREFORE BE POSTED AS PER LOCAL POLICY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
BY THURSDAY WHILE ALOFT THERE WILL BE A RATHER ZONAL PATTERN.
HUMIDITY LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL EASE UP A BIT AS DEWPOINTS
DROP TO THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THEY CREEP BACK UP TOWARDS THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S AGAIN ON FRIDAY ON THE RETURN FLOW WITH THE HIGH
OFFSHORE.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING OFFSHORE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME
MODEL CONSENSUS ON PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER. THE 00Z ECMWF STALLS
THE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE AND THERE WOULD BE A CHANCE FOR POST-FRONTAL
RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS AND CMC KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE...ENDING THE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...KEEPING SUNDAY DRY.
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ACTUALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD
FRONT...PUSHING IT OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT ALSO ENDS
IT SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DIFFER IN DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH LEAD TO LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE...THE FRONT HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS 06Z RUN. SO...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING...DRYING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS A CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIRMASS BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY.

MVFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG LIKELY ALONG EASTERN TERMINALS...POSSIBLE
ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS.

ANY STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING...WITH VFR CONDS
IN AFT.

LIGHT SW WINDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...GIVING WAY TO
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST.

INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA TUE EVENING ACROSS NYC
TERMINALS AND TO THE W & NW WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WED THROUGH FRI...
.TUE NIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED EVE/NIGHTTIME SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
.SAT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT MOST OF THE TIME.
THERE COULD BE SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT WOULD LIKELY RESULT
IN NO MORE THAN LOCALIZED MINOR URBANIZED/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP








000
FXUS61 KALY 020241
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1040 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM...PER THE H2O VAPOR LOOP...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IS
SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION WITH MOISTURE RETURN/ADVECTION NOW
UNDERWAY.  00Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL A CAP AT AND JUST BELOW H600 WITH
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION AT +1C.  SEEMS THE 00Z/NAM MIGHT BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WHICH IS ALSO SUGGESTED IN THE HRRR.  SO WE WILL KEEP POPS JUST
BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.  THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY SUGGESTS
STRATUS WAS JUST BEGINNING TO EXPAND OVER THE REGION BUT STILL AMPLE
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR FOG FORMATION.
CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE NARROWED SINCE THE LAST ESTF SO NO
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.  PER HOURLY TRENDS...DID RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER.

OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION FOR A BIT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. PWATS COULD
BE QUITE HIGH...SO THE USUAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND STANDING
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...BUT
THEN DEEPER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN THE HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
COOL A LITTLE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH JUST THE START OF WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF SUN ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MIDWEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COAST.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
THE FCST AREA COULD GET UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL JET.  H850 TEMPS MAY RISE A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LATEST 12Z GFS INDICATING H850
TEMPS OF +17C TO +19C FOR FRIDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRIGGER
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A PRE FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY LATE FRI PM WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO NEAR 60F OVER THE MTNS AND HILLS...WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS.  MAX TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE
LATEST WPC VALUES WITH MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW 90F
READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC DEWPTS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GGEM THE FASTEST...AND THE ECMWF THE
SLOWEST.  WE HAVE FAVORED A 12Z GFS/WPC BLEND WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT...AND THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE REALIZED.  NONETHELESS...A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ON SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
U60S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND U50S TO L60S MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE M60S TO M70S
NORTH AND WEST OF ALY...AND U70S TO M80S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ENDING WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN TIER.  SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK WAVE FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.  A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM MIDWEST AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THERE MAYBE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN DACKS...BUT SUNDAY WAS KEPT DRY
AT THIS POINT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AS H850 TEMPS FALL TO +2C TO
+8C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL IN THE U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND MOSTLY U60S TO L70S OVER THE VALLEYS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED
NEAR SE ONTARIO AND NRN NY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL
WEATHER.  LOWS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S TO L50S WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER...LOW
STRATUS/FOG/MIST WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY FOR IFR CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT THE TREND 24 HRS
AGO...WE WILL ATTEMPT TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND IN THIS SET OF TAFS.

FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNRISE. THEN WE SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TO THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 AND
CONTINUE TO ADJUST TIMING PER TRENDS AS THEY EVOLVE DURING TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT
WITH FOG AND DEW FORMATION TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS EVENING SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR
LESS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AT LESS THAN 15
MPH. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT
EXPECT MANY IF ANY RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...BGM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY








000
FXUS61 KALY 020241
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1040 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM...PER THE H2O VAPOR LOOP...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IS
SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION WITH MOISTURE RETURN/ADVECTION NOW
UNDERWAY.  00Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL A CAP AT AND JUST BELOW H600 WITH
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION AT +1C.  SEEMS THE 00Z/NAM MIGHT BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WHICH IS ALSO SUGGESTED IN THE HRRR.  SO WE WILL KEEP POPS JUST
BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.  THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY SUGGESTS
STRATUS WAS JUST BEGINNING TO EXPAND OVER THE REGION BUT STILL AMPLE
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR FOG FORMATION.
CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE NARROWED SINCE THE LAST ESTF SO NO
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.  PER HOURLY TRENDS...DID RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER.

OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION FOR A BIT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. PWATS COULD
BE QUITE HIGH...SO THE USUAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND STANDING
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...BUT
THEN DEEPER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN THE HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
COOL A LITTLE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH JUST THE START OF WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF SUN ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MIDWEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COAST.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
THE FCST AREA COULD GET UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL JET.  H850 TEMPS MAY RISE A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LATEST 12Z GFS INDICATING H850
TEMPS OF +17C TO +19C FOR FRIDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRIGGER
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A PRE FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY LATE FRI PM WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO NEAR 60F OVER THE MTNS AND HILLS...WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS.  MAX TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE
LATEST WPC VALUES WITH MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW 90F
READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC DEWPTS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GGEM THE FASTEST...AND THE ECMWF THE
SLOWEST.  WE HAVE FAVORED A 12Z GFS/WPC BLEND WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT...AND THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE REALIZED.  NONETHELESS...A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ON SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
U60S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND U50S TO L60S MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE M60S TO M70S
NORTH AND WEST OF ALY...AND U70S TO M80S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ENDING WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN TIER.  SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK WAVE FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.  A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM MIDWEST AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THERE MAYBE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN DACKS...BUT SUNDAY WAS KEPT DRY
AT THIS POINT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AS H850 TEMPS FALL TO +2C TO
+8C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL IN THE U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND MOSTLY U60S TO L70S OVER THE VALLEYS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED
NEAR SE ONTARIO AND NRN NY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL
WEATHER.  LOWS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S TO L50S WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER...LOW
STRATUS/FOG/MIST WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY FOR IFR CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT THE TREND 24 HRS
AGO...WE WILL ATTEMPT TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND IN THIS SET OF TAFS.

FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNRISE. THEN WE SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TO THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 AND
CONTINUE TO ADJUST TIMING PER TRENDS AS THEY EVOLVE DURING TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT
WITH FOG AND DEW FORMATION TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS EVENING SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR
LESS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AT LESS THAN 15
MPH. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT
EXPECT MANY IF ANY RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...BGM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY







000
FXUS61 KBGM 020239
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1039 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE BUT HUMID. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRY WARM WEATHER WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
VERY QUIET AT THIS MOMENT...BUT HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY EARLY MORNING DUE TO PASSAGE OF A WEAK WAVE.
ALSO...THOUGH WE WILL HAVE INCREASING FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...SHALLOW PATCHY FOG STILL LOOKS LIKELY IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WITH AMOUNT OF NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE...AND
AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
MAKING FOR AN UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID NIGHT FOR THOSE WITHOUT AIR
CONDITIONING.

UPDATED GRIDS TO FINESSE TIMING BASED ON LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR MAIN BATCH OF STORMS TUESDAY...ROUGHLY 2PM WNW TO 9PM ESE.
STILL CONCERNED FOR RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AS PRIMARY THREAT...AS ALREADY DISCUSSED BELOW. LOCAL ANALOG
PROGRAM RETURNS SEVERAL PAST CASES WITH AT LEAST SPORADIC WIND
DAMAGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE TUESDAY. THE AMOUNT OF HEATING THAT
WE WILL SEE AHEAD OF THESE STORMS IS IN QUESTION TUESDAY AS THE
DAY WILL START WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. IN
ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS SPREADING EASTWARD OVER OUR
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION OVER THE MIDWEST.
DESPITE THESE FACTORS THE VERY WARM MOIST LOW-LEVELS WILL COMBINE
WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH
TO PRODUCE MLCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 1000-1500 J/KG... WITH 2000
J/KG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF SEVERAL HOURS OF SOLAR HEATING CAN
OCCUR. WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS EXPECTED...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH. THE LATEST 4 KM NAM INDICATES THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF STORMS BY AROUND 21Z OVER CENTRAL NY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD. BASED ON THESE FACTORS THE SPC HAS PUT OUR
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CIRCUMSTANCES.
WILL ADD A SEVERE MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EVERYTHING QUIETS DOWN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY START WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG
FOLLOWED BY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS
AND HUMIDITY WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WARM
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH WILL FEATURE A WEEKEND
FROPA. MAX TEMPS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON FRI WILL GET WELL INTO THE
8OS...WITH HIGHS GNRLY IN THE 65-70 RNG BY SUN/MON. BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FNT ON SAT...WITH COOLER TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER XPCTD FOR SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. AFTER
06Z A STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH
HAZE. EXPECT FOR THE MOST PART TO HAVE MVFR VISBYS AND CIGS. KELM
AND KBGM MAY DEVELOP FOG TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENT THAT KELM
WILL HAVE PROLONGED PERIODS OF IFR THAN KBGM. EXPECT THE MVFR DECK TO
LIFT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN... A STRONG SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNDER 12 KNOTS PRIOR TO THE STORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA EARLY...THEN POTNL FOR
MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE DUE TO LOW POST-FNTL CLDS MAINLY SRN TIER OF NY.

WED-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/MSE
NEAR TERM...MDP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KAH






000
FXUS61 KBGM 020239
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1039 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE BUT HUMID. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRY WARM WEATHER WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
VERY QUIET AT THIS MOMENT...BUT HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY EARLY MORNING DUE TO PASSAGE OF A WEAK WAVE.
ALSO...THOUGH WE WILL HAVE INCREASING FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...SHALLOW PATCHY FOG STILL LOOKS LIKELY IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WITH AMOUNT OF NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE...AND
AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
MAKING FOR AN UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID NIGHT FOR THOSE WITHOUT AIR
CONDITIONING.

UPDATED GRIDS TO FINESSE TIMING BASED ON LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR MAIN BATCH OF STORMS TUESDAY...ROUGHLY 2PM WNW TO 9PM ESE.
STILL CONCERNED FOR RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AS PRIMARY THREAT...AS ALREADY DISCUSSED BELOW. LOCAL ANALOG
PROGRAM RETURNS SEVERAL PAST CASES WITH AT LEAST SPORADIC WIND
DAMAGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE TUESDAY. THE AMOUNT OF HEATING THAT
WE WILL SEE AHEAD OF THESE STORMS IS IN QUESTION TUESDAY AS THE
DAY WILL START WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. IN
ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS SPREADING EASTWARD OVER OUR
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION OVER THE MIDWEST.
DESPITE THESE FACTORS THE VERY WARM MOIST LOW-LEVELS WILL COMBINE
WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH
TO PRODUCE MLCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 1000-1500 J/KG... WITH 2000
J/KG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF SEVERAL HOURS OF SOLAR HEATING CAN
OCCUR. WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS EXPECTED...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH. THE LATEST 4 KM NAM INDICATES THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF STORMS BY AROUND 21Z OVER CENTRAL NY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD. BASED ON THESE FACTORS THE SPC HAS PUT OUR
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CIRCUMSTANCES.
WILL ADD A SEVERE MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EVERYTHING QUIETS DOWN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY START WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG
FOLLOWED BY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS
AND HUMIDITY WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WARM
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH WILL FEATURE A WEEKEND
FROPA. MAX TEMPS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON FRI WILL GET WELL INTO THE
8OS...WITH HIGHS GNRLY IN THE 65-70 RNG BY SUN/MON. BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FNT ON SAT...WITH COOLER TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER XPCTD FOR SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. AFTER
06Z A STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH
HAZE. EXPECT FOR THE MOST PART TO HAVE MVFR VISBYS AND CIGS. KELM
AND KBGM MAY DEVELOP FOG TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENT THAT KELM
WILL HAVE PROLONGED PERIODS OF IFR THAN KBGM. EXPECT THE MVFR DECK TO
LIFT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN... A STRONG SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNDER 12 KNOTS PRIOR TO THE STORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA EARLY...THEN POTNL FOR
MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE DUE TO LOW POST-FNTL CLDS MAINLY SRN TIER OF NY.

WED-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/MSE
NEAR TERM...MDP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KAH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 020215
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1015 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF
WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1009 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ACRS
THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY ON TUES.
ALSO...MENTION PATCHY FOG IN THE DACKS...AS SLK HAS ALREADY
DROPPED TO 1 1/2SM IN BR/FOG. THINKING BEST CHC FOR FOG WL BE BTWN
NOW AND EARLY TUES MORNING...BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE AHEAD OF
NEXT SYSTEM. CRNT RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACRS
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO NEAR KART...WITH GENERAL MOVEMENT TWD THE
SLV. THINKING THIS SHOWERS WL SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT WL MENTION
SCHC/CHC...WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN POPS TWD 12Z ASSOCIATED WITH
LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM APPROACHING S/W TROF. LAPS SHOWS VERY
MINIMAL INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES <300 J/KG...SO DID NOT
MENTION THUNDER OVERNIGHT...BUT KEPT IT MENTIONED TWD THE MORNING
HRS WHEN BETTER DYNAMICS ARRIVE. REST OF FCST REMAINS UNCHANGED
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE M/U 50S NEK/SLK TO M/U60S SLV/CPV WITH
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT MONDAY...MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN THE NEXT WEEK
THEN OCCURS TOMORROW AS WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION. WHILE BAROCLINICITY IS ONCE AGAIN FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR (~30-40KT) AND MODEST PBL
INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) ALONG FORERUNNING PRE-FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM
FAIRLY EASILY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD TREND STRONG...PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SEVERE CELL OR TWO...BY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY FROM THE
DACKS EASTWARD WHERE BETTER INSOLATION SHOULD OCCUR. BETTER
FORCING/HEATING DOES APPEAR TO SET UP JUST A BIT SOUTH OF US
THOUGH. GIVEN THIS SETUP I`VE ADDED PROGS FOR GUSTY WINDS/SMALL
HAIL IN THE WORDED FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS ACCORDINGLY...IN
FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO MOST RECENT 5 PCT SREF CALIBRATED
TSTM/SVR TSTM PROGS. CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WARM AND MUGGY AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY INTO THE 60S AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

ANY EVENING CONVECTION THEN CLEARS EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY AS ACTUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. STILL
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE SLOWLY DROPPING OVER TIME.

THEREAFTER...MEAN HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES AND WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. ONLY A MODEST AIRMASS CHANGE WITH HIGHS STILL SEASONABLY MILD
IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE. THEN TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ATOP THE REGION. LOWS QUITE PLEASANT...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 203 PM EDT MONDAY...FA REMAINS IN SIMILAR PATTERN WITH BEING ON
THE NRN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE WITH OCCASIONAL NRN
STREAM SYSTEMS DAMPENING RIDGE TEMPORAILY WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA THEN
A RETURN TO DRY AND ABV SEASONABLE TEMPS.


ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SLIGHTLY WITH SFC
RIDGE IN CONTROL THU AND SLIDING SE ON FRIDAY. PRIMARILY DRY WITH
ABV SEAONABLE TEMPS IN THE U70S-L/M80S..

LATE FRI/FRIDAY NGT/SATURDAY...NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR
LEVEL RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH
THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASE SHRA/TSRA THREAT LATE ACRS ST LWRNC
VLY. MAIN PUSH FOR SHRA WILL BE FRI NGT AS SFC FRNT SLIDES ACRS FA
AND LINGERING INTO SAT AS FLOW IS PARALLEL TO FRONT WITH HINT OF SFC
WAVE DEVELOPING ALG BOUNDARY THUS CHC LINGERING SHRA...ESP VT
EASTWARD.

ANOTHER NRN STREAM UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS FA ON SUN BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE...MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND NORMAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL RETURN TO KMPV AND KSLK AFTER 06Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS WHICH
WILL PERSIT TILL ABOUT 13Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP TOWARDS MIDDAY TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VERMONT. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
MAY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS ON TUESDAY WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH
MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG AFTER 06Z.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 020215
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1015 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF
WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1009 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ACRS
THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY ON TUES.
ALSO...MENTION PATCHY FOG IN THE DACKS...AS SLK HAS ALREADY
DROPPED TO 1 1/2SM IN BR/FOG. THINKING BEST CHC FOR FOG WL BE BTWN
NOW AND EARLY TUES MORNING...BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE AHEAD OF
NEXT SYSTEM. CRNT RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACRS
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO NEAR KART...WITH GENERAL MOVEMENT TWD THE
SLV. THINKING THIS SHOWERS WL SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT WL MENTION
SCHC/CHC...WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN POPS TWD 12Z ASSOCIATED WITH
LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM APPROACHING S/W TROF. LAPS SHOWS VERY
MINIMAL INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES <300 J/KG...SO DID NOT
MENTION THUNDER OVERNIGHT...BUT KEPT IT MENTIONED TWD THE MORNING
HRS WHEN BETTER DYNAMICS ARRIVE. REST OF FCST REMAINS UNCHANGED
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE M/U 50S NEK/SLK TO M/U60S SLV/CPV WITH
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT MONDAY...MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN THE NEXT WEEK
THEN OCCURS TOMORROW AS WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION. WHILE BAROCLINICITY IS ONCE AGAIN FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR (~30-40KT) AND MODEST PBL
INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) ALONG FORERUNNING PRE-FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM
FAIRLY EASILY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD TREND STRONG...PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SEVERE CELL OR TWO...BY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY FROM THE
DACKS EASTWARD WHERE BETTER INSOLATION SHOULD OCCUR. BETTER
FORCING/HEATING DOES APPEAR TO SET UP JUST A BIT SOUTH OF US
THOUGH. GIVEN THIS SETUP I`VE ADDED PROGS FOR GUSTY WINDS/SMALL
HAIL IN THE WORDED FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS ACCORDINGLY...IN
FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO MOST RECENT 5 PCT SREF CALIBRATED
TSTM/SVR TSTM PROGS. CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WARM AND MUGGY AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY INTO THE 60S AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

ANY EVENING CONVECTION THEN CLEARS EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY AS ACTUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. STILL
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE SLOWLY DROPPING OVER TIME.

THEREAFTER...MEAN HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES AND WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. ONLY A MODEST AIRMASS CHANGE WITH HIGHS STILL SEASONABLY MILD
IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE. THEN TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ATOP THE REGION. LOWS QUITE PLEASANT...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 203 PM EDT MONDAY...FA REMAINS IN SIMILAR PATTERN WITH BEING ON
THE NRN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE WITH OCCASIONAL NRN
STREAM SYSTEMS DAMPENING RIDGE TEMPORAILY WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA THEN
A RETURN TO DRY AND ABV SEASONABLE TEMPS.


ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SLIGHTLY WITH SFC
RIDGE IN CONTROL THU AND SLIDING SE ON FRIDAY. PRIMARILY DRY WITH
ABV SEAONABLE TEMPS IN THE U70S-L/M80S..

LATE FRI/FRIDAY NGT/SATURDAY...NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR
LEVEL RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH
THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASE SHRA/TSRA THREAT LATE ACRS ST LWRNC
VLY. MAIN PUSH FOR SHRA WILL BE FRI NGT AS SFC FRNT SLIDES ACRS FA
AND LINGERING INTO SAT AS FLOW IS PARALLEL TO FRONT WITH HINT OF SFC
WAVE DEVELOPING ALG BOUNDARY THUS CHC LINGERING SHRA...ESP VT
EASTWARD.

ANOTHER NRN STREAM UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS FA ON SUN BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE...MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND NORMAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL RETURN TO KMPV AND KSLK AFTER 06Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS WHICH
WILL PERSIT TILL ABOUT 13Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP TOWARDS MIDDAY TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VERMONT. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
MAY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS ON TUESDAY WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH
MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG AFTER 06Z.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 020215
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1015 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF
WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1009 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ACRS
THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY ON TUES.
ALSO...MENTION PATCHY FOG IN THE DACKS...AS SLK HAS ALREADY
DROPPED TO 1 1/2SM IN BR/FOG. THINKING BEST CHC FOR FOG WL BE BTWN
NOW AND EARLY TUES MORNING...BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE AHEAD OF
NEXT SYSTEM. CRNT RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACRS
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO NEAR KART...WITH GENERAL MOVEMENT TWD THE
SLV. THINKING THIS SHOWERS WL SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT WL MENTION
SCHC/CHC...WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN POPS TWD 12Z ASSOCIATED WITH
LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM APPROACHING S/W TROF. LAPS SHOWS VERY
MINIMAL INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES <300 J/KG...SO DID NOT
MENTION THUNDER OVERNIGHT...BUT KEPT IT MENTIONED TWD THE MORNING
HRS WHEN BETTER DYNAMICS ARRIVE. REST OF FCST REMAINS UNCHANGED
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE M/U 50S NEK/SLK TO M/U60S SLV/CPV WITH
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT MONDAY...MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN THE NEXT WEEK
THEN OCCURS TOMORROW AS WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION. WHILE BAROCLINICITY IS ONCE AGAIN FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR (~30-40KT) AND MODEST PBL
INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) ALONG FORERUNNING PRE-FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM
FAIRLY EASILY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD TREND STRONG...PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SEVERE CELL OR TWO...BY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY FROM THE
DACKS EASTWARD WHERE BETTER INSOLATION SHOULD OCCUR. BETTER
FORCING/HEATING DOES APPEAR TO SET UP JUST A BIT SOUTH OF US
THOUGH. GIVEN THIS SETUP I`VE ADDED PROGS FOR GUSTY WINDS/SMALL
HAIL IN THE WORDED FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS ACCORDINGLY...IN
FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO MOST RECENT 5 PCT SREF CALIBRATED
TSTM/SVR TSTM PROGS. CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WARM AND MUGGY AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY INTO THE 60S AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

ANY EVENING CONVECTION THEN CLEARS EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY AS ACTUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. STILL
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE SLOWLY DROPPING OVER TIME.

THEREAFTER...MEAN HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES AND WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. ONLY A MODEST AIRMASS CHANGE WITH HIGHS STILL SEASONABLY MILD
IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE. THEN TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ATOP THE REGION. LOWS QUITE PLEASANT...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 203 PM EDT MONDAY...FA REMAINS IN SIMILAR PATTERN WITH BEING ON
THE NRN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE WITH OCCASIONAL NRN
STREAM SYSTEMS DAMPENING RIDGE TEMPORAILY WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA THEN
A RETURN TO DRY AND ABV SEASONABLE TEMPS.


ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SLIGHTLY WITH SFC
RIDGE IN CONTROL THU AND SLIDING SE ON FRIDAY. PRIMARILY DRY WITH
ABV SEAONABLE TEMPS IN THE U70S-L/M80S..

LATE FRI/FRIDAY NGT/SATURDAY...NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR
LEVEL RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH
THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASE SHRA/TSRA THREAT LATE ACRS ST LWRNC
VLY. MAIN PUSH FOR SHRA WILL BE FRI NGT AS SFC FRNT SLIDES ACRS FA
AND LINGERING INTO SAT AS FLOW IS PARALLEL TO FRONT WITH HINT OF SFC
WAVE DEVELOPING ALG BOUNDARY THUS CHC LINGERING SHRA...ESP VT
EASTWARD.

ANOTHER NRN STREAM UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS FA ON SUN BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE...MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND NORMAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL RETURN TO KMPV AND KSLK AFTER 06Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS WHICH
WILL PERSIT TILL ABOUT 13Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP TOWARDS MIDDAY TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VERMONT. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
MAY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS ON TUESDAY WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH
MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG AFTER 06Z.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 020215
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1015 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF
WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1009 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ACRS
THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY ON TUES.
ALSO...MENTION PATCHY FOG IN THE DACKS...AS SLK HAS ALREADY
DROPPED TO 1 1/2SM IN BR/FOG. THINKING BEST CHC FOR FOG WL BE BTWN
NOW AND EARLY TUES MORNING...BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE AHEAD OF
NEXT SYSTEM. CRNT RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACRS
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO NEAR KART...WITH GENERAL MOVEMENT TWD THE
SLV. THINKING THIS SHOWERS WL SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT WL MENTION
SCHC/CHC...WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN POPS TWD 12Z ASSOCIATED WITH
LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM APPROACHING S/W TROF. LAPS SHOWS VERY
MINIMAL INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES <300 J/KG...SO DID NOT
MENTION THUNDER OVERNIGHT...BUT KEPT IT MENTIONED TWD THE MORNING
HRS WHEN BETTER DYNAMICS ARRIVE. REST OF FCST REMAINS UNCHANGED
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE M/U 50S NEK/SLK TO M/U60S SLV/CPV WITH
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT MONDAY...MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN THE NEXT WEEK
THEN OCCURS TOMORROW AS WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION. WHILE BAROCLINICITY IS ONCE AGAIN FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR (~30-40KT) AND MODEST PBL
INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) ALONG FORERUNNING PRE-FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM
FAIRLY EASILY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD TREND STRONG...PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SEVERE CELL OR TWO...BY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY FROM THE
DACKS EASTWARD WHERE BETTER INSOLATION SHOULD OCCUR. BETTER
FORCING/HEATING DOES APPEAR TO SET UP JUST A BIT SOUTH OF US
THOUGH. GIVEN THIS SETUP I`VE ADDED PROGS FOR GUSTY WINDS/SMALL
HAIL IN THE WORDED FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS ACCORDINGLY...IN
FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO MOST RECENT 5 PCT SREF CALIBRATED
TSTM/SVR TSTM PROGS. CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WARM AND MUGGY AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY INTO THE 60S AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

ANY EVENING CONVECTION THEN CLEARS EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY AS ACTUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. STILL
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE SLOWLY DROPPING OVER TIME.

THEREAFTER...MEAN HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES AND WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. ONLY A MODEST AIRMASS CHANGE WITH HIGHS STILL SEASONABLY MILD
IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE. THEN TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ATOP THE REGION. LOWS QUITE PLEASANT...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 203 PM EDT MONDAY...FA REMAINS IN SIMILAR PATTERN WITH BEING ON
THE NRN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE WITH OCCASIONAL NRN
STREAM SYSTEMS DAMPENING RIDGE TEMPORAILY WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA THEN
A RETURN TO DRY AND ABV SEASONABLE TEMPS.


ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SLIGHTLY WITH SFC
RIDGE IN CONTROL THU AND SLIDING SE ON FRIDAY. PRIMARILY DRY WITH
ABV SEAONABLE TEMPS IN THE U70S-L/M80S..

LATE FRI/FRIDAY NGT/SATURDAY...NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR
LEVEL RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH
THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASE SHRA/TSRA THREAT LATE ACRS ST LWRNC
VLY. MAIN PUSH FOR SHRA WILL BE FRI NGT AS SFC FRNT SLIDES ACRS FA
AND LINGERING INTO SAT AS FLOW IS PARALLEL TO FRONT WITH HINT OF SFC
WAVE DEVELOPING ALG BOUNDARY THUS CHC LINGERING SHRA...ESP VT
EASTWARD.

ANOTHER NRN STREAM UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS FA ON SUN BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE...MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND NORMAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL RETURN TO KMPV AND KSLK AFTER 06Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS WHICH
WILL PERSIT TILL ABOUT 13Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP TOWARDS MIDDAY TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VERMONT. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
MAY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS ON TUESDAY WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH
MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG AFTER 06Z.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 020206
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1006 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REACH WESTERN
NEW YORK AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND ADVANCE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WHILE DIMINISHING
IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AREA TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES AND AREAS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND BRING A RETURN TO
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS LATE EVENING REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE AND NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS CAPE VINCENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. FARTHER WESTWARD A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH NEARS WESTERN NEW
YORK. THIS ACTIVITY...FEEDING OFF A NARROW RIBBON OF 1000 J/KG OF
100 MB MIXED LAYER CAPE AND AN INCREASING LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS LINE IS SHOWING SOME
WEAKENING TRENDS TO ITS STRUCTURE...WHILE THE SEGMENT CLOSER TO LAKE
ERIE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT DECENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR WNY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TOWARDS THE
LAKE AND SOUTH...WITH LOW END LIKELY POPS NEAR LAKE ONTARIO.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECT TO DIMINISH SOME AS THE NIGHT CARRIES ON AND
THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ALSO WEAKEN
SOME. HOWEVER THE LLJ OF 30 KNOTS AT 850 HPA SHOULD MAINTAIN AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND POINTS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN.

ON TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
SLIDE EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION...
WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT EASING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES...WHILE LARGE-SCALE
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OWING TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT/THE NOSE OF A 30-40 KT LOW-MID LEVEL
JET...SUPPORTING SYNOPTIC-SCALE DCVA/HEIGHT FALLS...AND INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+ KNOT
UPPER LEVEL JET. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ALL OF THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN FAIRLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION...FOR WHICH SOME
LIKELY TO LOW-END CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN PLAY.

WHILE THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND IN PLACE ALOFT TO KEEP
THINGS MOVING ALONG...GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS THERE STILL WILL
BE AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IF ANY STRONGER/HEAVIER CELLS MANAGE TO TRAIN REPEATEDLY
OVER A PARTICULAR AREA. THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT
LESS CLEAR GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...HOWEVER WITH 35-45 KNOTS WORTH OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN
PLACE...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF ATTENDANT
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY EXISTS PROVIDED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY CAN ULTIMATELY BE REALIZED. AT THIS POINT...A ROUGH
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL
EXIST FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICS WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED UPON EACH OTHER. NOT
COINCIDENTALLY... THIS AGREES QUITE WELL WITH SPC`S LATEST DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WHICH PORTRAYS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THIS PARTICULAR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. MOST 12Z GUIDANCE HAS THE TRAILING EDGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT ALONG THE SE BORDER OF THE CWA AT
00Z. ONCE THIS EXITS...EXPECT DRY WEATHER LATE TUESDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE MODESTLY COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH MOSTLY SKIES TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY.

ON THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE JET STREAM
WELL TO OUR NORTH IN CANADA. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
MINNESOTA THURSDAY...WITH MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION FORECAST TO
LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION STAYS DRY. A NAM/GFS CONSENSUS WARMS 850MB TEMPERATURES IN
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO +18C BY 00Z FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
THE FRONT...HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FACTOR FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH 12Z GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERING ON THE FRONTS
TIMING AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE BEHIND IT. THE FORECAST WILL
FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THIS GUIDANCE WHICH IS NOTABLY SLOWER THAN THE
12Z GGEM IN TERMS OF TIMING...AND WARMER THAN THE 12Z GFS WITH
POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY SHOULD SUMMER-LIKE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. THE FRONT IS
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH A
NIGHTTIME PASSAGE...EXPECT ONLY A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT...AND POSSIBLY BEHIND IT WITH SOME ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THIS GUIDANCE
DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO +5C...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT 00Z WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR
SO...BEFORE SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS...AND SOUTHERN TIER IFR CIGS
FORM ACROSS THE REGION JUST BEFORE DAWN.

A PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WNY JUST
PAST MIDNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BEFORE REACHING THE KART
AIRFIELD...SO WILL ONLY PLACE VCSH IN TAF SITES TO THE WEST OF
WATERTOWN.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EASE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. COUPLED WITH INCREASING
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...WITH
SOME OF THESE POTENTIALLY BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...WHERE OVERALL
INSTABILITY APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE THE STRONGEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS...WITH CONDITIONS MOSTLY RETURNING TO VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...BEFORE
CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ON ON LAKE ERIE WHERE WINDS AND WAVES WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR LAKE ERIE
THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME WINDS NEARING 18-20
KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL
ALSO PRODUCE A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY... A FEW OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE BRINGING A RETURN TO
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 020206
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1006 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REACH WESTERN
NEW YORK AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND ADVANCE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WHILE DIMINISHING
IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AREA TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES AND AREAS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND BRING A RETURN TO
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS LATE EVENING REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE AND NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS CAPE VINCENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. FARTHER WESTWARD A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH NEARS WESTERN NEW
YORK. THIS ACTIVITY...FEEDING OFF A NARROW RIBBON OF 1000 J/KG OF
100 MB MIXED LAYER CAPE AND AN INCREASING LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS LINE IS SHOWING SOME
WEAKENING TRENDS TO ITS STRUCTURE...WHILE THE SEGMENT CLOSER TO LAKE
ERIE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT DECENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR WNY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TOWARDS THE
LAKE AND SOUTH...WITH LOW END LIKELY POPS NEAR LAKE ONTARIO.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECT TO DIMINISH SOME AS THE NIGHT CARRIES ON AND
THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ALSO WEAKEN
SOME. HOWEVER THE LLJ OF 30 KNOTS AT 850 HPA SHOULD MAINTAIN AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND POINTS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN.

ON TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
SLIDE EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION...
WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT EASING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES...WHILE LARGE-SCALE
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OWING TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT/THE NOSE OF A 30-40 KT LOW-MID LEVEL
JET...SUPPORTING SYNOPTIC-SCALE DCVA/HEIGHT FALLS...AND INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+ KNOT
UPPER LEVEL JET. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ALL OF THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN FAIRLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION...FOR WHICH SOME
LIKELY TO LOW-END CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN PLAY.

WHILE THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND IN PLACE ALOFT TO KEEP
THINGS MOVING ALONG...GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS THERE STILL WILL
BE AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IF ANY STRONGER/HEAVIER CELLS MANAGE TO TRAIN REPEATEDLY
OVER A PARTICULAR AREA. THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT
LESS CLEAR GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...HOWEVER WITH 35-45 KNOTS WORTH OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN
PLACE...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF ATTENDANT
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY EXISTS PROVIDED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY CAN ULTIMATELY BE REALIZED. AT THIS POINT...A ROUGH
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL
EXIST FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICS WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED UPON EACH OTHER. NOT
COINCIDENTALLY... THIS AGREES QUITE WELL WITH SPC`S LATEST DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WHICH PORTRAYS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THIS PARTICULAR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. MOST 12Z GUIDANCE HAS THE TRAILING EDGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT ALONG THE SE BORDER OF THE CWA AT
00Z. ONCE THIS EXITS...EXPECT DRY WEATHER LATE TUESDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE MODESTLY COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH MOSTLY SKIES TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY.

ON THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE JET STREAM
WELL TO OUR NORTH IN CANADA. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
MINNESOTA THURSDAY...WITH MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION FORECAST TO
LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION STAYS DRY. A NAM/GFS CONSENSUS WARMS 850MB TEMPERATURES IN
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO +18C BY 00Z FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
THE FRONT...HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FACTOR FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH 12Z GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERING ON THE FRONTS
TIMING AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE BEHIND IT. THE FORECAST WILL
FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THIS GUIDANCE WHICH IS NOTABLY SLOWER THAN THE
12Z GGEM IN TERMS OF TIMING...AND WARMER THAN THE 12Z GFS WITH
POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY SHOULD SUMMER-LIKE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. THE FRONT IS
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH A
NIGHTTIME PASSAGE...EXPECT ONLY A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT...AND POSSIBLY BEHIND IT WITH SOME ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THIS GUIDANCE
DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO +5C...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT 00Z WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR
SO...BEFORE SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS...AND SOUTHERN TIER IFR CIGS
FORM ACROSS THE REGION JUST BEFORE DAWN.

A PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WNY JUST
PAST MIDNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BEFORE REACHING THE KART
AIRFIELD...SO WILL ONLY PLACE VCSH IN TAF SITES TO THE WEST OF
WATERTOWN.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EASE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. COUPLED WITH INCREASING
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...WITH
SOME OF THESE POTENTIALLY BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...WHERE OVERALL
INSTABILITY APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE THE STRONGEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS...WITH CONDITIONS MOSTLY RETURNING TO VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...BEFORE
CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ON ON LAKE ERIE WHERE WINDS AND WAVES WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR LAKE ERIE
THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME WINDS NEARING 18-20
KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL
ALSO PRODUCE A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY... A FEW OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE BRINGING A RETURN TO
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 020206
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1006 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REACH WESTERN
NEW YORK AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND ADVANCE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WHILE DIMINISHING
IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AREA TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES AND AREAS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND BRING A RETURN TO
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS LATE EVENING REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE AND NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS CAPE VINCENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. FARTHER WESTWARD A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH NEARS WESTERN NEW
YORK. THIS ACTIVITY...FEEDING OFF A NARROW RIBBON OF 1000 J/KG OF
100 MB MIXED LAYER CAPE AND AN INCREASING LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS LINE IS SHOWING SOME
WEAKENING TRENDS TO ITS STRUCTURE...WHILE THE SEGMENT CLOSER TO LAKE
ERIE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT DECENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR WNY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TOWARDS THE
LAKE AND SOUTH...WITH LOW END LIKELY POPS NEAR LAKE ONTARIO.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECT TO DIMINISH SOME AS THE NIGHT CARRIES ON AND
THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ALSO WEAKEN
SOME. HOWEVER THE LLJ OF 30 KNOTS AT 850 HPA SHOULD MAINTAIN AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND POINTS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN.

ON TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
SLIDE EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION...
WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT EASING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES...WHILE LARGE-SCALE
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OWING TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT/THE NOSE OF A 30-40 KT LOW-MID LEVEL
JET...SUPPORTING SYNOPTIC-SCALE DCVA/HEIGHT FALLS...AND INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+ KNOT
UPPER LEVEL JET. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ALL OF THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN FAIRLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION...FOR WHICH SOME
LIKELY TO LOW-END CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN PLAY.

WHILE THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND IN PLACE ALOFT TO KEEP
THINGS MOVING ALONG...GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS THERE STILL WILL
BE AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IF ANY STRONGER/HEAVIER CELLS MANAGE TO TRAIN REPEATEDLY
OVER A PARTICULAR AREA. THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT
LESS CLEAR GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...HOWEVER WITH 35-45 KNOTS WORTH OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN
PLACE...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF ATTENDANT
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY EXISTS PROVIDED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY CAN ULTIMATELY BE REALIZED. AT THIS POINT...A ROUGH
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL
EXIST FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICS WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED UPON EACH OTHER. NOT
COINCIDENTALLY... THIS AGREES QUITE WELL WITH SPC`S LATEST DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WHICH PORTRAYS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THIS PARTICULAR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. MOST 12Z GUIDANCE HAS THE TRAILING EDGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT ALONG THE SE BORDER OF THE CWA AT
00Z. ONCE THIS EXITS...EXPECT DRY WEATHER LATE TUESDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE MODESTLY COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH MOSTLY SKIES TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY.

ON THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE JET STREAM
WELL TO OUR NORTH IN CANADA. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
MINNESOTA THURSDAY...WITH MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION FORECAST TO
LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION STAYS DRY. A NAM/GFS CONSENSUS WARMS 850MB TEMPERATURES IN
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO +18C BY 00Z FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
THE FRONT...HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FACTOR FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH 12Z GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERING ON THE FRONTS
TIMING AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE BEHIND IT. THE FORECAST WILL
FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THIS GUIDANCE WHICH IS NOTABLY SLOWER THAN THE
12Z GGEM IN TERMS OF TIMING...AND WARMER THAN THE 12Z GFS WITH
POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY SHOULD SUMMER-LIKE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. THE FRONT IS
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH A
NIGHTTIME PASSAGE...EXPECT ONLY A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT...AND POSSIBLY BEHIND IT WITH SOME ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THIS GUIDANCE
DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO +5C...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT 00Z WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR
SO...BEFORE SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS...AND SOUTHERN TIER IFR CIGS
FORM ACROSS THE REGION JUST BEFORE DAWN.

A PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WNY JUST
PAST MIDNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BEFORE REACHING THE KART
AIRFIELD...SO WILL ONLY PLACE VCSH IN TAF SITES TO THE WEST OF
WATERTOWN.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EASE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. COUPLED WITH INCREASING
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...WITH
SOME OF THESE POTENTIALLY BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...WHERE OVERALL
INSTABILITY APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE THE STRONGEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS...WITH CONDITIONS MOSTLY RETURNING TO VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...BEFORE
CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ON ON LAKE ERIE WHERE WINDS AND WAVES WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR LAKE ERIE
THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME WINDS NEARING 18-20
KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL
ALSO PRODUCE A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY... A FEW OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE BRINGING A RETURN TO
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 020206
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1006 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REACH WESTERN
NEW YORK AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND ADVANCE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WHILE DIMINISHING
IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AREA TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES AND AREAS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND BRING A RETURN TO
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS LATE EVENING REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE AND NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS CAPE VINCENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. FARTHER WESTWARD A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH NEARS WESTERN NEW
YORK. THIS ACTIVITY...FEEDING OFF A NARROW RIBBON OF 1000 J/KG OF
100 MB MIXED LAYER CAPE AND AN INCREASING LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS LINE IS SHOWING SOME
WEAKENING TRENDS TO ITS STRUCTURE...WHILE THE SEGMENT CLOSER TO LAKE
ERIE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT DECENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR WNY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TOWARDS THE
LAKE AND SOUTH...WITH LOW END LIKELY POPS NEAR LAKE ONTARIO.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECT TO DIMINISH SOME AS THE NIGHT CARRIES ON AND
THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ALSO WEAKEN
SOME. HOWEVER THE LLJ OF 30 KNOTS AT 850 HPA SHOULD MAINTAIN AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND POINTS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN.

ON TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
SLIDE EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION...
WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT EASING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES...WHILE LARGE-SCALE
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OWING TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT/THE NOSE OF A 30-40 KT LOW-MID LEVEL
JET...SUPPORTING SYNOPTIC-SCALE DCVA/HEIGHT FALLS...AND INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+ KNOT
UPPER LEVEL JET. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ALL OF THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN FAIRLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION...FOR WHICH SOME
LIKELY TO LOW-END CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN PLAY.

WHILE THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND IN PLACE ALOFT TO KEEP
THINGS MOVING ALONG...GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS THERE STILL WILL
BE AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IF ANY STRONGER/HEAVIER CELLS MANAGE TO TRAIN REPEATEDLY
OVER A PARTICULAR AREA. THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT
LESS CLEAR GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...HOWEVER WITH 35-45 KNOTS WORTH OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN
PLACE...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF ATTENDANT
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY EXISTS PROVIDED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY CAN ULTIMATELY BE REALIZED. AT THIS POINT...A ROUGH
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL
EXIST FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICS WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED UPON EACH OTHER. NOT
COINCIDENTALLY... THIS AGREES QUITE WELL WITH SPC`S LATEST DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WHICH PORTRAYS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THIS PARTICULAR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. MOST 12Z GUIDANCE HAS THE TRAILING EDGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT ALONG THE SE BORDER OF THE CWA AT
00Z. ONCE THIS EXITS...EXPECT DRY WEATHER LATE TUESDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE MODESTLY COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH MOSTLY SKIES TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY.

ON THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE JET STREAM
WELL TO OUR NORTH IN CANADA. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
MINNESOTA THURSDAY...WITH MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION FORECAST TO
LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION STAYS DRY. A NAM/GFS CONSENSUS WARMS 850MB TEMPERATURES IN
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO +18C BY 00Z FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
THE FRONT...HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FACTOR FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH 12Z GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERING ON THE FRONTS
TIMING AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE BEHIND IT. THE FORECAST WILL
FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THIS GUIDANCE WHICH IS NOTABLY SLOWER THAN THE
12Z GGEM IN TERMS OF TIMING...AND WARMER THAN THE 12Z GFS WITH
POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY SHOULD SUMMER-LIKE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. THE FRONT IS
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH A
NIGHTTIME PASSAGE...EXPECT ONLY A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT...AND POSSIBLY BEHIND IT WITH SOME ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THIS GUIDANCE
DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO +5C...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT 00Z WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR
SO...BEFORE SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS...AND SOUTHERN TIER IFR CIGS
FORM ACROSS THE REGION JUST BEFORE DAWN.

A PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WNY JUST
PAST MIDNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BEFORE REACHING THE KART
AIRFIELD...SO WILL ONLY PLACE VCSH IN TAF SITES TO THE WEST OF
WATERTOWN.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EASE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. COUPLED WITH INCREASING
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...WITH
SOME OF THESE POTENTIALLY BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...WHERE OVERALL
INSTABILITY APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE THE STRONGEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS...WITH CONDITIONS MOSTLY RETURNING TO VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...BEFORE
CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ON ON LAKE ERIE WHERE WINDS AND WAVES WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR LAKE ERIE
THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME WINDS NEARING 18-20
KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL
ALSO PRODUCE A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY... A FEW OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE BRINGING A RETURN TO
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KOKX 020005
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
805 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH POPS FOR CONVECTION...TEMPS...AND
DEWPOINTS. OVERALL...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ANY CONVECTION JUST
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH AGREEMENT
WITH MULTIPLE MESOSCALE MODELS OF MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS MID
EVENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

ISO/SCT CONVECTION DIMINISHES THIS EVENING FROM THE COMBINATION
OF ATMOSPHERIC STABILIZATION...LOSS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DUE TO
DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES...AND UPPER
LIFT SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE AREA. PWAT VALUES WILL STILL BE ON
THE HIGH SIDE AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

DRY WEATHER BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT REMAINING MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS
HOVER AROUND 70. PATCHY LIGHT FOG PROBABLY DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AS
WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF IT DEVELOPS NEAR OUR WESTERN ZONES. SHOWER/TSTM THREAT
BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THIS TROUGH...AND ENDS FOR MOST SPOTS
OVERNIGHT WHEN THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. CAPPED POPS
IN THE CHC CATEGORY. PARAMETERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE LESS OF POSSIBILITY DUE TO RELATIVELY
HIGH WBZ/FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS. TSTM STRENGTH DIMINISHES AFTER
EARLY EVENING WITH LESS CAPE IN SPITE OF BETTER LIFT FROM THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. PWATS STILL RATHER HIGH...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 17-18C...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND A SW FLOW...EXPECTING PARTS OF NE
NJ TO REACH INTO THE LOW-MID 90S...WITH LOW 90S IN THE CITY AND A
GOOD PORTION OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MOST OTHER SPOTS EXPECTED
TO END UP AT 85-90. REGARDING HEAT ADVISORY CONCERNS IN THE
CITY...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT A DECENT PORTION OF THE CITY WILL
REACH A HEAT INDEX OF AT LEAST 95 FOR AN HOUR OR TWO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...INDICES HAD FAILED TO REACH 95 MONDAY AFTERNOON. NO
ADVISORIES WILL THEREFORE BE POSTED AS PER LOCAL POLICY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
BY THURSDAY WHILE ALOFT THERE WILL BE A RATHER ZONAL PATTERN.
HUMIDITY LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL EASE UP A BIT AS DEWPOINTS
DROP TO THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THEY CREEP BACK UP TOWARDS THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S AGAIN ON FRIDAY ON THE RETURN FLOW WITH THE HIGH
OFFSHORE.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING OFFSHORE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME
MODEL CONSENSUS ON PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER. THE 00Z ECMWF STALLS
THE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE AND THERE WOULD BE A CHANCE FOR POST-FRONTAL
RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS AND CMC KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE...ENDING THE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...KEEPING SUNDAY DRY.
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ACTUALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD
FRONT...PUSHING IT OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT ALSO ENDS
IT SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DIFFER IN DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH LEAD TO LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE...THE FRONT HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS 06Z RUN. SO...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING...DRYING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS A CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIRMASS BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY.

MVFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG LIKELY ALONG EASTERN TERMINALS...POSSIBLE
ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS.

ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG BURNS OFF WITH VFR CONDS.

LIGHT SW WINDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...GIVING WAY TO
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST.

INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA TUE EVENING ACROSS NYC
TERMINALS AND TO THE W & NW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BETWEEN 17Z
AND 19Z. MAXING OUT AT 15 TO 18 KT AFTER 21Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BETWEEN 19Z
AND 21Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF AFT SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF AFT SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BETWEEN 19Z
AND 21Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z
AND 20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WED THROUGH FRI...
.TUE NIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED EVE/NIGHTTIME SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
.SAT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT MOST OF THE TIME.
THERE COULD BE SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED/SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING SHOULD BE SHORT-
LIVED.

ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN
NO MORE THAN LOCALIZED MINOR URBANIZED/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JC/JM
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...NV/PW
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP








000
FXUS61 KOKX 020005
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
805 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH POPS FOR CONVECTION...TEMPS...AND
DEWPOINTS. OVERALL...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ANY CONVECTION JUST
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH AGREEMENT
WITH MULTIPLE MESOSCALE MODELS OF MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS MID
EVENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

ISO/SCT CONVECTION DIMINISHES THIS EVENING FROM THE COMBINATION
OF ATMOSPHERIC STABILIZATION...LOSS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DUE TO
DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES...AND UPPER
LIFT SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE AREA. PWAT VALUES WILL STILL BE ON
THE HIGH SIDE AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

DRY WEATHER BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT REMAINING MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS
HOVER AROUND 70. PATCHY LIGHT FOG PROBABLY DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AS
WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF IT DEVELOPS NEAR OUR WESTERN ZONES. SHOWER/TSTM THREAT
BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THIS TROUGH...AND ENDS FOR MOST SPOTS
OVERNIGHT WHEN THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. CAPPED POPS
IN THE CHC CATEGORY. PARAMETERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE LESS OF POSSIBILITY DUE TO RELATIVELY
HIGH WBZ/FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS. TSTM STRENGTH DIMINISHES AFTER
EARLY EVENING WITH LESS CAPE IN SPITE OF BETTER LIFT FROM THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. PWATS STILL RATHER HIGH...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 17-18C...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND A SW FLOW...EXPECTING PARTS OF NE
NJ TO REACH INTO THE LOW-MID 90S...WITH LOW 90S IN THE CITY AND A
GOOD PORTION OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MOST OTHER SPOTS EXPECTED
TO END UP AT 85-90. REGARDING HEAT ADVISORY CONCERNS IN THE
CITY...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT A DECENT PORTION OF THE CITY WILL
REACH A HEAT INDEX OF AT LEAST 95 FOR AN HOUR OR TWO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...INDICES HAD FAILED TO REACH 95 MONDAY AFTERNOON. NO
ADVISORIES WILL THEREFORE BE POSTED AS PER LOCAL POLICY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
BY THURSDAY WHILE ALOFT THERE WILL BE A RATHER ZONAL PATTERN.
HUMIDITY LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL EASE UP A BIT AS DEWPOINTS
DROP TO THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THEY CREEP BACK UP TOWARDS THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S AGAIN ON FRIDAY ON THE RETURN FLOW WITH THE HIGH
OFFSHORE.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING OFFSHORE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME
MODEL CONSENSUS ON PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER. THE 00Z ECMWF STALLS
THE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE AND THERE WOULD BE A CHANCE FOR POST-FRONTAL
RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS AND CMC KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE...ENDING THE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...KEEPING SUNDAY DRY.
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ACTUALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD
FRONT...PUSHING IT OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT ALSO ENDS
IT SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DIFFER IN DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH LEAD TO LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE...THE FRONT HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS 06Z RUN. SO...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING...DRYING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS A CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIRMASS BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY.

MVFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG LIKELY ALONG EASTERN TERMINALS...POSSIBLE
ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS.

ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG BURNS OFF WITH VFR CONDS.

LIGHT SW WINDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...GIVING WAY TO
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST.

INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA TUE EVENING ACROSS NYC
TERMINALS AND TO THE W & NW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BETWEEN 17Z
AND 19Z. MAXING OUT AT 15 TO 18 KT AFTER 21Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BETWEEN 19Z
AND 21Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF AFT SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROBABILITY OF AFT SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BETWEEN 19Z
AND 21Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z
AND 20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WED THROUGH FRI...
.TUE NIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED EVE/NIGHTTIME SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
.SAT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT MOST OF THE TIME.
THERE COULD BE SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED/SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING SHOULD BE SHORT-
LIVED.

ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN
NO MORE THAN LOCALIZED MINOR URBANIZED/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JC/JM
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...NV/PW
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP









000
FXUS61 KBUF 020001
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
801 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND BRING A RETURN TO DRIER AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS EVENING DISPLAY JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING
ACROSS WNY WITHIN A HUMID AIRMASS. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT THAT ISOLATED CELLS MAY
CONTINUE TO FORM...UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN A PRE FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS PASS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE LOW CHANCE POPS AS UPSTREAM ACTIVITY NEAR LAKE HURON AND
THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ERIE WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
INSTABILITY AS IT ADVANCES DOWNSTREAM AND TOWARDS OUR REGION.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN.

ON TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
SLIDE EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION...
WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT EASING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES...WHILE LARGE-SCALE
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OWING TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT/THE NOSE OF A 30-40 KT LOW-MID LEVEL
JET...SUPPORTING SYNOPTIC-SCALE DCVA/HEIGHT FALLS...AND INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+ KNOT
UPPER LEVEL JET. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ALL OF THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN FAIRLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION...FOR WHICH SOME
LIKELY TO LOW-END CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN PLAY.

WHILE THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND IN PLACE ALOFT TO KEEP
THINGS MOVING ALONG...GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS THERE STILL WILL
BE AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IF ANY STRONGER/HEAVIER CELLS MANAGE TO TRAIN REPEATEDLY
OVER A PARTICULAR AREA. THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT
LESS CLEAR GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...HOWEVER WITH 35-45 KNOTS WORTH OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN
PLACE...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF ATTENDANT
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY EXISTS PROVIDED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY CAN ULTIMATELY BE REALIZED. AT THIS POINT...A ROUGH
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL
EXIST FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICS WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED UPON EACH OTHER. NOT
COINCIDENTALLY... THIS AGREES QUITE WELL WITH SPC`S LATEST DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WHICH PORTRAYS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THIS PARTICULAR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. MOST 12Z GUIDANCE HAS THE TRAILING EDGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT ALONG THE SE BORDER OF THE CWA AT
00Z. ONCE THIS EXITS...EXPECT DRY WEATHER LATE TUESDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE MODESTLY COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH MOSTLY SKIES TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY.

ON THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE JET STREAM
WELL TO OUR NORTH IN CANADA. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
MINNESOTA THURSDAY...WITH MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION FORECAST TO
LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION STAYS DRY. A NAM/GFS CONSENSUS WARMS 850MB TEMPERATURES IN
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO +18C BY 00Z FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
THE FRONT...HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FACTOR FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH 12Z GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERING ON THE FRONTS
TIMING AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE BEHIND IT. THE FORECAST WILL
FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THIS GUIDANCE WHICH IS NOTABLY SLOWER THAN THE
12Z GGEM IN TERMS OF TIMING...AND WARMER THAN THE 12Z GFS WITH
POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY SHOULD SUMMER-LIKE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. THE FRONT IS
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH A
NIGHTTIME PASSAGE...EXPECT ONLY A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT...AND POSSIBLY BEHIND IT WITH SOME ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THIS GUIDANCE
DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO +5C...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT 00Z WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR
SO...BEFORE SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS...AND SOUTHERN TIER IFR CIGS
FORM ACROSS THE REGION JUST BEFORE DAWN.

A PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WNY JUST
PAST MIDNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BEFORE REACHING THE KART
AIRFIELD...SO WILL ONLY PLACE VCSH IN TAF SITES TO THE WEST OF
WATERTOWN.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EASE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. COUPLED WITH INCREASING
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...WITH
SOME OF THESE POTENTIALLY BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...WHERE OVERALL
INSTABILITY APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE THE STRONGEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS...WITH CONDITIONS MOSTLY RETURNING TO VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...BEFORE
CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ON ON LAKE ERIE WHERE WINDS AND WAVES WILL
CLIMB TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL ALSO
PRODUCE A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...
A FEW OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE BRINGING A RETURN TO
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 020001
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
801 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND BRING A RETURN TO DRIER AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS EVENING DISPLAY JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING
ACROSS WNY WITHIN A HUMID AIRMASS. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT THAT ISOLATED CELLS MAY
CONTINUE TO FORM...UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN A PRE FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS PASS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE LOW CHANCE POPS AS UPSTREAM ACTIVITY NEAR LAKE HURON AND
THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ERIE WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
INSTABILITY AS IT ADVANCES DOWNSTREAM AND TOWARDS OUR REGION.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN.

ON TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
SLIDE EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION...
WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT EASING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES...WHILE LARGE-SCALE
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OWING TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT/THE NOSE OF A 30-40 KT LOW-MID LEVEL
JET...SUPPORTING SYNOPTIC-SCALE DCVA/HEIGHT FALLS...AND INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+ KNOT
UPPER LEVEL JET. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ALL OF THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN FAIRLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION...FOR WHICH SOME
LIKELY TO LOW-END CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN PLAY.

WHILE THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND IN PLACE ALOFT TO KEEP
THINGS MOVING ALONG...GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS THERE STILL WILL
BE AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IF ANY STRONGER/HEAVIER CELLS MANAGE TO TRAIN REPEATEDLY
OVER A PARTICULAR AREA. THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT
LESS CLEAR GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...HOWEVER WITH 35-45 KNOTS WORTH OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN
PLACE...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF ATTENDANT
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY EXISTS PROVIDED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY CAN ULTIMATELY BE REALIZED. AT THIS POINT...A ROUGH
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL
EXIST FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICS WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED UPON EACH OTHER. NOT
COINCIDENTALLY... THIS AGREES QUITE WELL WITH SPC`S LATEST DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WHICH PORTRAYS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THIS PARTICULAR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. MOST 12Z GUIDANCE HAS THE TRAILING EDGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT ALONG THE SE BORDER OF THE CWA AT
00Z. ONCE THIS EXITS...EXPECT DRY WEATHER LATE TUESDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE MODESTLY COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH MOSTLY SKIES TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY.

ON THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE JET STREAM
WELL TO OUR NORTH IN CANADA. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
MINNESOTA THURSDAY...WITH MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION FORECAST TO
LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION STAYS DRY. A NAM/GFS CONSENSUS WARMS 850MB TEMPERATURES IN
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO +18C BY 00Z FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
THE FRONT...HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FACTOR FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH 12Z GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERING ON THE FRONTS
TIMING AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE BEHIND IT. THE FORECAST WILL
FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THIS GUIDANCE WHICH IS NOTABLY SLOWER THAN THE
12Z GGEM IN TERMS OF TIMING...AND WARMER THAN THE 12Z GFS WITH
POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY SHOULD SUMMER-LIKE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. THE FRONT IS
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH A
NIGHTTIME PASSAGE...EXPECT ONLY A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT...AND POSSIBLY BEHIND IT WITH SOME ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THIS GUIDANCE
DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO +5C...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT 00Z WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR
SO...BEFORE SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS...AND SOUTHERN TIER IFR CIGS
FORM ACROSS THE REGION JUST BEFORE DAWN.

A PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WNY JUST
PAST MIDNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BEFORE REACHING THE KART
AIRFIELD...SO WILL ONLY PLACE VCSH IN TAF SITES TO THE WEST OF
WATERTOWN.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EASE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. COUPLED WITH INCREASING
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...WITH
SOME OF THESE POTENTIALLY BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...WHERE OVERALL
INSTABILITY APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE THE STRONGEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUE