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000
FXUS61 KOKX 251518
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1118 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SETTLES TO OUR SOUTH INTO TUESDAY. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY
LIFTS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT THEN STALLS
OUT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NE TODAY...WITH POPS DECREASING
FROM CATEGORICAL FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE DAY FOR OCCASIONAL TO
SCT -SHRA. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT TRANSITING THE AREA A LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING
SOME GRAUPEL. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REFLECT IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY NW WINDS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND SFC-850
LOW TO OUR NE - BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH. NOTE - IF
STRONGER WINDS FROM 950-850 HPA IN THE GFS ARE REALIZED (VICE
WINDS 5-10 KT LOWER IN THE NAM/ECMWF) - THEN COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED GUSTS TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO THE N AND W OF NYC.
FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FROM THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 ACROSS N
INTERIOR ZONES TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NYC METRO. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR STAYED IN
THE MID 40S. THESE HIGHS ARE SOME 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP OF CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NE WITH DECREASING POPS FROM
SW TO NE FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DID LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NE 1/3
OF THE CWA IN DEFERENCE TO SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY...BUT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE CUTOFF PULLS AWAY - ALLOWING FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
SLOWLY RELAX OVER THE REGION.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS
SHOULD BE TOO STRONG FOR FROST FORMATION ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR
ZONES. ON SUNDAY...USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...MAV/MET GUIDANCE BLEND...AND A MIX DOWN FROM 800
HPA...FOR HIGHS WITH READINGS FORECAST AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER...WITH DRY WEATHER.
FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES FORECAST 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...EXCEPT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN NYC. WINDS SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN BE TOO STRONG FOR FROST FORMATION ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES.
FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 800 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR NORMAL - WITH POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPING IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AS MUCH AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH
MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECE/WPC GUIDANCE FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...SO
FOLLOWED A BLEND.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
PASSING SHORTWAVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL ENABLE
A WARM FRONT TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...WITH THE FRONT STALLING
OUT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR W ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN CHANCE POPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
DO LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THERE
IS SOME QUESTION HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT CLEARS TO THE N.
DEPENDING ON EXACT PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE
MEAN/ECE/ECE ENSEMBLE MEAN/WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES START OUT
NEAR NORMAL...BUT RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY.
NW WINDS RAMPING UP DURING THE DAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS REACHING 30KT
BETWEEN 16-18Z. GUSTS THEN EVENTUALLY INCREASE TO 35-39KT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD VERY WELL PEAK OUT OCCASIONALLY TO 40-43KT.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A WIND DIRECTION AROUND 320 TRUE.
CIGS VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE FREQUENTLY
VFR AFTER 18-19Z.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IN SHRA TODAY WITH COLD TEMPS
ALOFT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN...VFR. NW GUSTS AROUND 30 KT.
.MON...VFR.
.TUE-WED...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT
TUES NIGHT AND WEDS.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
NW FLOW STRENGTHENS TODAY. MIGHT NOT BE UNTIL AROUND NOON BEFORE
SOME OF THE WATERS REACHES GALE FORCE GUSTS...AND GUSTS OVER THE NY
HARBOR AND LONG ISLAND BAYS COULD SUBSIDE UNDER 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...THE GALE WARNING MIGHT NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO PART OF SUNDAY MORNING OVER SOME OF THE WATERS AS MIXING
DEEPENS AGAIN. WINDS THEN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH AT LEAST SCA CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE DAY.
ALL WATERS THEN FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUES FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UNDER 15
KT. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH THIS MORNING COULD PRODUCE POCKETS OF MINOR FLOODING OF
POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN LOCATIONS.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-
350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JP
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC/JM
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 251452
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1052 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. FURTHERMORE...SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS OF THE ADIRONDACK AND
GREEN MOUNTAINS. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON
LOCAL WATERWAYS...WITH SOME RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. DID ADD IN SOME WORDING FOR STRONG GUSTS OUT OF THE
NORTH TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. PREVIOUS
FORECASTERS THOUGHTS STILL VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH
RADAR...SATELLITE AND CURRENT OBS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
VERY MINOR UPDATE TO FINE TUNE POPS/TEMPS AND WINDS BASED ON CRNT
OBS. RADAR CONTS TO SHOW BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ROTATING
ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SOME BRIGHT BAND SIGNATURES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MELTING LAYER ON KCXX RADAR. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLASSIC
BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZN DEVELOPING ACRS CENTRAL VT INTO NORTHERN
NY ATTM. THIS WL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN...WITH SOME HEAVY AT
TIMES THRU TODAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK GOOD. JUST STARTING TO SEE
RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS AND EXPECT RIVER FLOODING TO BECOME MORE
OF AN ISSUE BY THIS AFTN. FLOOD WATCH LOOKS VERY GOOD.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL HOLD IN THE M/U 30S MTNS TO L/M40S VALLEYS
WITH SOME L/M50S POSSIBLE IN THE SLV TODAY. HAVE DISCARDED THE LAV
GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS BTV DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S BY NOON
TODAY...ITS LATE MAY AND THIS SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY.
AS FOR THE SNOW...PICO WEB CAM SHOWS THE SUMMIT IS WHITE...WITH
SOME MIXING OF SNOW AND RAIN DOWN TO THE KILLINGTON BASE AREA.
CRNT ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 3500FT...EXPECT THEM TO
DROP BTWN 2000 AND 2500 FT BY THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONT
ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS ABOVE 3500 FT...AS WHITEFACE SUMMIT TEMP IS
DOWN TO 27F.
OVERALL FCST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS AND
IMPACTS ACRS OUR CWA. STILL ANTICIPATING STORM TOTAL PRECIP OF 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCH AMOUNTS ACRS THE WESTERN
SLOPES...PARTS OF THE CPV...AND MTNS OF NORTH-CENTRAL VT BY SUNDAY
AFTN. IN ADDITION...STILL EXPECTING SOME ACCUMULATING HEAVY WET
SNOW ABOVE 2000 FEET...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND GREEN MTNS.
FCST CHALLENGE IS IMPACTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ON AREA
WATERWAYS...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF SNOW ACRS HIGHER TRRN.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE NEGATIVELY TILTED 7/5H CIRCULATION
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE ACRS
OUR FA ASSOCIATED WITH RRQ OF 25H JET OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS
CLOSED SYSTEM WL ADVECT PLENTY OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO OUR
CWA THRU TONIGHT...WITH FAVORABLE BACKSIDE DEFORMATION DEVELOPING BY
THIS EVENING. OVERALL...MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM
BECMG VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE...AND THE ASSOCIATED
QPF ACRS OUR CWA. GFS/NAM AND ECMWF ALL SHOW IMPRESSIVE 7H FGEN
FORCING...STRONG 850 TO 500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND DEEP 850
TO 500MB UVVS ACRS OUR CWA THRU 06Z SUNDAY. THIS WL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH WL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY THRU THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...SYSTEM WL TRANSITION FROM LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO
MESOSCALE FEATURES DRIVE BY THE TRRN. GFS/NAM SHOWS VERY FAVORABLE
850 TO 700MB RH AND LLVL WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ENHANCED
PRECIP ACRS THE CPV...WESTERN SLOPES...AND NORTH/CENTRAL MTNS OF VT.
THIS FAVORABLE MOISTURE/LIFT IS PRESENT THRU 18Z SUNDAY...BEFORE
FINALLY WEAKENING BY EVENING. WL CONT TO MENTION POPS NEAR 100% FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY/CAT POPS ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MORNING. GIVEN...THE DEEP CLOSED CIRCULATION FEEL PRECIP/CLOUDS
WL LINGER THRU MIDDAY SUNDAY...BUT WL TAPER OFF BY AFTN. ALSO...FEEL
QPF/POPS WL BE MUCH LESS ACRS THE SLV...AS MODELS SHOW LIMITED
LIFT/RH. THINKING MOSTLY LOW LIKELY WESTERN DACKS TO CHC POPS SLV.
THIS AREA WL ALSO SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS ON SAT AND SUNDAY...HIGHS IN
THE 50S.
STILL ANTICIPATING STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES WITH
LOCALIZED 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...ACRS THE CPV...WESTERN SLOPES...AND
MTNS OF NORTHERN VT. THINKING CPV CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLW WL
HELP TO ENHANCE QPF AMOUNTS ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND CPV. MUCH
LESS QPF IS ANTICIPATED ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS...GENERALLY
<0.25". ALSO...THINKING AMOUNTS ACRS THE CT RIVER VALLEY WL BE
CLOSER TO 1.0". THIS WL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS...WITH SOME MAIN STEM FLOODING POSSIBLE. SEE HDYRO SECTION
BLW FOR MORE INFO.
NOW FOR THE HARDEST PART OF THE FCST...TRYING TO DETERMINE SNOW
LEVELS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS. NAM/GFS AND LOCAL WRF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THERMAL PROFILES BECMG COLD ENOUGH BY 00Z THIS EVENING FOR SNOW
ABOVE 2000 FT. STILL HAVING A HARD TIME DETERMINING WHERE THE COLD
AIR IS COMING FROM...AS OUR LLVL CAA IS LIMITED. THINKING DYNAMIC
COOLING AND HEAVIER PRECIP WL MIX COLDER AIR ALOFT TWD THE
SFC...AS COLD CORE LOW MOVES CLOSER. THIS IS EXTREMELY TRICKY TO
DETERMINE...ESPECIALLY IN LATE MAY...WITH A VERY HIGH SUN ANGLE.
HAVE NOTED 28F AT WHITEFACE AND 32 ATOP MOUNT MANSFIELD....WITH
WHITEFACE WEB CAM ALREADY SHOWING THE GROUND WHITE...BEFORE SUNSET
ON FRIDAY EVENING. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW A RIBBON OF 85H TEMPS BTWN
-1C AND -3C...AND 925MB TEMPS NEAR 0C DEVELOPING ACRS OUR CWA
TODAY. THINKING SNOW LEVELS WL START NEAR SUMMIT LEVEL (3500 TO
4000 FEET) TODAY...BUT DROP TO NEAR 2000 FT BY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT A SHARP INCREASE IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACRS THE MTNS AS
YOU INCREASE YOUR ELEVATION ABOVE 2500 FT. THINKING BTWN 1 AND 3 INCHES
WL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING BTWN 2000 AND 2500 FEET...WITH
OVER 6 INCHES LIKELY AT THE SUMMITS FROM MT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK. I
REALIZE WE TECHNICALLY DON`T FCST FOR THE SUMMITS...BUT GIVEN THE
HOLIDAY WKND AND POTENTIAL FOR HIKERS/CAMPERS IN THE MTNS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WL ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL. ON A SIDE NOTE...IF WE CAN CLR SKIES LATE SUNDAY
AFTN...THE SNOW COVERED MTN SUMMITS SHOULD MAKE FOR SOME GREAT
PICTURES.
THE COMBINATION OF PRECIP/CLOUDS AND PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C...WL
SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE M/U30S MTNS TO L/M 40S CPV/CT RIVER
VALLEY. WARMEST TEMPS WL BE ACRS THE SLV...READINGS WL WARM INTO THE
50S. TEMPS WL ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...AS WINDS/PRECIP AND
CLOUDS PREVAIL...THINKING L/M 30S MTNS TO U30S TO L40S. ON
SUNDAY...TEMPS WL BECM TRICKY...ESPECIALLY IF WE BREAK OUT INTO SOME
SUN LATE IN THE AFTN. EXPECT LATE DAY HIGHS FOR THE CPV...WITH
VALUES REACHING THE L/M 50S...WITH MAINLY 40S IN THE MTNS AND L60S
IN THE SLV. MOST OF THE MARATHON WL EXPERIENCE LIGHT RAIN WITH COOL
TEMPS AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE ON SUNDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE BY SUNDAY AFTN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR 50F...AND LIGHTER WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL SLOWLY LIFT NE INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS
WL RESULT IN A SLOW CLEARING TREND WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL LVLS BY MONDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FROST ACRS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE DACKS AND PARTS OF
VT. THIS MAYBE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE VERY SATURATED LLVLS AND
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IF SKIES CLR AND WINDS DECREASE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT SATURDAY...PATTERN CHANGE TAKES PLACE IN THE EXTENDED
AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXISTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. WE WILL START TO SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKE PLACE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WHEN A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AND WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN. FIRST THE WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE
A FOCUS WEDNESDAY FOR CONVECTION AS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THUS HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LINGERING THREAT ON THURSDAY AS
FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE BORDER. ONCE IT
DOES...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND BRINGS IN NOTICEABLY
WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LACK OF FORCING
SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE THREAT IS MINIMAL AND HAVE THUS KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR AND
IFR CATEGORIES AT MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO CLOUDS...FOG...AND RAIN.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE KMSS WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST AS THEY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE COAST THAT IS PRODUCING ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WATCH FOR WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER
14Z FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED.
AFTER 06Z THE WIND GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AROUND 10 KNOTS...BUT
CEILINGS WILL STILL BE IN THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES AND VISIBILITIES
WILL IMPROVE A BIT INTO THE MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND AS SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SUNDAY. A SLOW CLEARING TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 440 AM SATURDAY...A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...STORM TOTAL PRECIP VALUES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES...PARTS OF THE
CPV...AND MTNS OF NORTH-CENTRAL VT BY SUNDAY AFTN. LOCALLY RUN
SSHP MODEL HYDROGRAPHS SUGGEST THESE TOTALS WILL LIKELY BRING
NUMEROUS SMALL STREAMS TO BANKFULL...AND SEVERAL MAINSTEM RIVERS
INTO FLOOD BY THIS AFTN INTO SUNDAY. THUS A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE
FOR THIS POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...THE RIVERS OF MOST CONCERN
WOULD BE THE MISSISQUOI...LAMOILLE...OTTER...AND PASSUMPSIC IN
VERMONT...AND THE AUSABLE RIVER IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. GIVEN THE
CURRENT TRENDS IN RAINFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS...MOST RIVER CRESTS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 440 PM SATURDAY...LOOKING TO BE A PRETTY MISERABLE START TO THE
PRIME BOATING SEASON ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A STORM MORE TYPICAL OF
WINTER WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE OPEN LAKE. FOR THAT REASON, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
POSTED AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE WINDS FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS.
THESE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS, WITH
WAVES ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE ULTIMATELY BUILDING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6
FEET. A STEADY RAIN AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S ON TODAY WILL
ADD TO THE MISERY.
THE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR BOATING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH THE UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TODAY...SOME
RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE APPROACHED OR BROKEN. THEY ARE LISTED
BELOW.
BURLINGTON: 51F (1921,1925)
MONTPELIER: 48F (1967)
MASSENA: 55F (1969,1979)
ST JOHNSBURY: 52F (1931,1925)
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-031-034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS
HYDROLOGY...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 251441
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1041 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
MAINLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE
EAST COAST IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING INTO A WELL DEFINED
CUTOFF LOW. AT THE SURFACE...THIS IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
RARE LATE MAY NOR`EASTER. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS BACKING INTO
EASTERN LEWIS COUNTY NOW...AND WILL BACK WEST JUST A LITTLE FURTHER
TO NEAR THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY TODAY AS A PERSISTENT AXIS OF
DEFORMATION IN THE 900-700MB LAYER BACKS WEST SLIGHTLY. EXPECT A
CHILLY RAIN TODAY FOR THESE AREAS...WITH THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD
EXTENDING BACK ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES.
FARTHER WEST...IT WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY ALTHOUGH THE VERY CHILLY AIR
ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LATE MAY SUN ANGLE AND SOME REMAINING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SELF-DESTRUCT SUNSHINE ACROSS
AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. A
NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE LAKES AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD
RESULT IN STABLE LAKE SHADOWS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH MORE
SUNSHINE WITHIN 10-20 MILES OF THE LAKES FROM WAYNE COUNTY WESTWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TODAY...WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S...EVEN IN AREAS WITH MORE SUNSHINE.
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THICK CLOUD COVER. MODEST NW WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN A BIT COOLER.
EXPECT TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
CLOUD COVER BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES THE RESULT
WILL LIKELY BE QUITE SIMILAR. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL BE CHILLY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP LOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING
WILL LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON MONDAY. THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS THAT ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN LEWIS COUNTY
SUNDAY...BUT THE BULK OF ANY PCPN SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO THE EAST.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND THE PERSISTENT LOW.
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO THE LAKES WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S...BUT INLAND
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE READINGS COOLING INTO THE 30S...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE AREAS OF FROST AND/OR A FREEZE ARE
POSSIBLE.
ON MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CREST OVER NEW YORK STATE AND BRING
MORE SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CHARACTERIZE THIS
PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OUT WEST.
AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NAM STILL LIFTS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH FASTER
AND BRINGS SHOWERS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE
THE GFS AND ECMWF HOLD THE PCPN OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND FOLLOW
THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY
...HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD...AND TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL
LIKELY WARM BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION. THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY CAP AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...AND THUS WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY THAT A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY...AS
DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CLOSE OFF IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH OUR REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.
THIS WILL KEEP A SOLID MID LEVEL DECK OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION TODAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY. ELSEWHERE THE COLD AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG LATE MAY
SUN WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH CIGS IN THE 4-5K RANGE. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS WILL KEEP
SKIES MORE CLEAR WITHIN 10-20 MILES OF THE LAKESHORES FROM KROC
WESTWARD.
TONIGHT THE CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NY WILL MOSTLY DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY TRY TO
RE-GENERATE OVERNIGHT. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO CLOUDS WILL LINGER AT
ART WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE LOW BUT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR CAPE COD WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT NW FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT...THIS WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS MARGINAL TO SCA FOR MOST
OF THE WATERS...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE WATER TONIGHT HAS HELPED AID
MIXING...AND BECAUSE OF THIS THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED A BIT ON LAKE ERIE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY INCREASE MODESTLY
TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE MORE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON EASTERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. AFTER THIS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH DIMINISHING WINDS ON SUNDAY ONWARD.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ019>021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...TJP
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/TJP
[top]
000
FXUS61 KALY 251412
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1012 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING WET AND
RAW WEATHER TO THE AREA TODAY. SUNDAY...OUR WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AS THE STORM MOVES NORTHEAST FROM DOWNEAST MAINE INTO CANADA.
SUNNY...PLEASANT WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MEMORIAL DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT...AN AREA OF STEADY PRECIPITATION...ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE...CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TO THE MID 40S LOWER ELEVATIONS. 12Z ALBANY SOUNDING HAD THE
FREEZING LEVEL AT AROUND 3000FT MSL. BASED ON SOUNDING...PRECIPITATION IS
FALLING AS SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAIN TOPS. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLOUD
TOPS COOLING AND SPREADING WESTWARD SLIGHTLY SO LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED FOR REST OF TODAY. LATEST UPDATE HAS MINOR CHANGES TO
GRIDDED DATABASE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. KALB HAS HAD 4.12 INCHES
OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 5 DAYS. GOOD NEWS IS THAT WE`VE WIPED OUT
MORE THAN HALF OF OUR YEARLY PRECIPITATION DEFICIT. BAD NEWS IS
THAT ITS PRETTY SOGGY AROUND HERE...
PREV DISC...
UPPER LOW BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CAPTURE
THE SURFACE LOW OVER CAPE COD LATER TODAY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. THIS WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
FLOW OF MOISTURE AND COOL AIR THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. THE
850-500 LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINS QUITE STRONG THROUGH
THE DAY TO KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...PER THE
DUAL POL DATA...THE FREEZING LEVELS CONTINUES TO DROP AND WE WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR/SEE SOME SLEET AND/OR GRAUPEL THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE OTHER ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS
AS H925-H850 WIND MAGNITUDES CLIMB TO AND ABOVE 50KTS. WHILE WE
WILL NOT COMPLETELY MIX TO THESE LAYERS...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST
FOR SOME OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO TRANSFER DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. APPARENT TEMPS /WIND CHILLS/ TODAY WILL AVERAGE
INTO THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY INTO
THE 40S. OUR NORMAL HIGH FOR TODAY IN ALBANY IS 72...GLENS FALLS
IS 70...AND 74 DEGREES IN POUGHKEEPSIE. IN FACT...WITH OUR CURRENT
FORECAST HIGH IN THE 40S FOR ALBANY...THIS WOULD SET A NEW LOW
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE /PREVIOUS RECORD IS 51 DEGREES IN 1967/.
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GULF OF MAINE. DEFORMATION AXIS REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
WITH THIS ZONE OF INFLUENCE WEAKENING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP POPS RATHER HIGH ALONG WITH A BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BUT NOT AS
GUSTY DUE TO LIMITED MIXING POTENTIAL. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BE A LITTLE COOLER AS WE FOLLOWED A BLENDED APPROACH FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S CWA-WIDE. THE
CHANCE FOR ANOTHER RECORD FOR ALBANY AS LOW MEAN TEMPERATURE FOR
THE DATE IS 44.5 SET IN 1925. DUE TO THE ELEVATED WIND
MAGNITUDES AND PRECIPITATION...THIS WOULD PRECLUDE ANY MENTION OF
FROST FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH LOWERING WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS...THE CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY TYPE MIXED PRECIPITATION
INCREASES FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW BEGINS TO FILL FURTHER AND BECOME
FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE REGION WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. SKY
COVERAGE MAY TAKE SOME ADDITIONAL TIME BUT THOUGHTS ARE WE SHOULD
SEE SOME PEAKS OF THE SUNSHINE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND JUST
BEFORE SUNSET. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER TIGHT WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRISK DAY ONCE AGAIN WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AROUND 30KTS AS PER THE BUFR PROFILES WE EFFECTIVELY MIX CLOSE TO
H850. GIVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE FOR NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS COULD EXPERIENCE
TEMPERATURES DIPPING AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH THE REMAINDER OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EXPERIENCING FROST CONDITIONS. AFTER
COLLABORATION...WE WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO AND MAKE FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS BEFORE ISSUING FREEZE WATCHES. AS LATE MAY SUNSHINE
RETURNS FOR MEMORIAL DAY...FORECAST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
TOWARD SEASONABLE VALUES /LOWER 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND WITH A RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA. WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
MINS FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THERE COULD BE SOME CONTINUED
FROST/FREEZE ISSUES FOR SOUTHERN GREENS AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE FOR TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR
A LIGHT S-SW WIND TO TAKE OVER AT LOW LEVELS. WARM ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN AT MID LEVELS...ESP BY LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL
START OFF SUNNY...SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY START TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION BY AFTN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN MONDAY...WITH MID TO
UPPER 70S IN MANY AREAS.
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BECOME STRONGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A SURFACE WARM FRONT
WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A SHORTWAVE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A CHC FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. MIN TEMPS
ON TUESDAY NIGHT WON/T BE AS COOL...WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
ON WED WILL BE MUCH WARMER...WITH 80S FOR MOST PLACES...AS 850 HPA
TEMPS SURGE TO 14 TO 16 DEGREES C. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
IS IN PLACE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED TIME FOR
SEVERE WX IN OUR AREA.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
80S EXPECTED AS THE REGION REMAINS DOMINATED BY THE STRONG RIDGE AT
500 HPA. WITH OUR AREA BEING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
RIDGE...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES PASSING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS THIS IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR THURS...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS DRY AND WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID
TO END THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. A STEADY RAIN IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING ALL
THE EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS. WHILE THE RAIN
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT IN INTENSITY...IT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. BY LATE IN THE DAY...THE RAIN MAY BE MORE SHOWERY IN
COVERAGE FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY MVFR...MAINLY FOR CIGS. THIS LOOKS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATELY STAY MVFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HOWEVER...BASED OFF THE RECENT TREND IN OBSERVATIONS...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR FOR VSBYS IS POSSIBLE AT KALB THIS MORNING. KPSF MAY
ALSO SEE LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS FOR CIGS...AND IT WOULDN/T TAKE
MUCH FOR A BRIEF REDUCTION TO IFR CONDITIONS AT THAT TERMINAL AS
WELL.
THE FLOW AROUND THE STORM WILL MAKE FOR GUSTY N-NW WINDS...ESP FOR
THE AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESP FOR KALB.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NIGHT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
WED...VFR. MVFR PSBL WITH CHC PM SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE COASTAL LOW
REMAINS IN THE VICINITY KEEPING CONDITIONS UNSETTLED. THIS WILL
KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH DESPITE THE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WIND. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO MEMORIAL DAY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RADAR CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT BRIGHT BANDING WHICH IS RESULTING IN
HIGHER RADAR RETURNS BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT.
6-HR TOTALS WHERE 1/2 OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH AHPS RIVER POINTS
SHOWING EITHER WITHIN BANK RISES OR NEAR STEADY FLOWS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE TO NONE EXPECTED HYDRO ISSUES.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL
DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS TO SLOWLY RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
[top]
000
FXUS61 KBGM 251358
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
958 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A
MODERATION BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL READINGS ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR...BUT
DRIER WEATHER IS FORESEEN STARTING SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM...CRNT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LWR
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN AS THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE TROUBLING HADLING THE
VERY COOL AIR...WITH GUID BEING TOO WRM FOR CONDS. OTRW...CLD/PCPN
TRENDS IN GOOD SHAPE. PRVS DISC BLO.
430 AM UPDATE... DEFORMATION PCPN BAND PERSISTS EARLY THIS MRNG
ACRS OUR ERN ZNS...WITH A DEEPENING UPR-LVL LOW PARKED NEAR NYC
ATTM. ONE MORE SIG SHRT WV WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DROPPING SEWD ACRS THE UPR LKS RGN AS OF THIS WRITING...AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD WRAP INTO THE UPPER LOW LTR TDY. ONCE THAT
HAPPENS...THE UPR VORTEX IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW EWD
PUSH OFF THE NEW ENG COAST. UNTIL THAT TIME...LOOK FOR NUMEROUS
-SHRA THIS AM...TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SCTD IN NATURE AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE AFTN HRS...E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. BACK TO THE
W...LTL OR NO SHWR ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED...WITH BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
DUE TO MORE CLDS/PERSISTENT PCPN...THE CHILLIEST READINGS TDY WILL
BE ACRS ERN PTNS OF THE FA...WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN CERTAINLY NOT
GETTING OUT OF THE 40S ONCE AGN. FARTHER W...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO REACH WELL INTO THE 50S...AND PROBABLY NEAR 60...SPCLY
ACRS NORMALLY WARMER URBANIZED VLYS.
WINDS STILL LOOK GUSTY...WITH STEEP LOW-LVL LR`S AND A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT AT PLAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
445 AM UPDATE... WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS EVE AS THE LOW
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZE...SPCLY W OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR.
ALSO...WITH THE UPR LOW SLOWLY MOVING AWAY...GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM W TO E DURG THE OVERNIGHT PD. THIS MAY OPEN
THE DOOR FOR FROST CONDS ACRS THE TWIN TIERS. OF COURSE...THE PACE
THAT SKIES CLEAR OUT LTR TNT...AND THAT WINDS DIMINISH...WILL BE
KEY COMPONENTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RESIDENT CHILLY AMS...AND TIME
OF YEAR (MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS PLANTING TIME FOR MANY
LOCALS)...WE FELT IT PRUDENT TO HOIST FROST ADVSYS FOR LATE
TNT/EARLY SUN.
SUN THROUGH MON CONTS TO LOOK DRY...WITH SKIES BCMG MAINLY
CLEAR...AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE W...AND HGTS ALOFT RISE
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WRN ATLANTIC UPR LOW.
POTENTIALLY VERY COLD TEMPS LATE SUN NGT INTO EARLY MON WILL AGN
BE THE MAIN FCST HIGHLIGHT THIS PD. IF ANYTHING...SUN NGT STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE THE COLDEST READINGS OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST RADIATING CONDS BY THIS TIME. THUS...AGN
CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR...WE`VE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FA...SAVE THE LAKE PLAIN CNTYS. SOME UPR 20S ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE USUALLY COLDER MORE PROTECTED VLYS.
HOWEVER...BY MON AFTN...SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL BE WELL
UNDERWAY...WITH HIGHS BACK UP NEAR 70 DEGS BY THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY WELL ADVERTISED WARM UP EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK AS BROAD
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS HOWEVER...FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING STALLED SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA WITH DEVELOPING
SHWRS/POSSIBLE THUNDER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST
RIDGE AXIS BUILDING FROM OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE MAINTAINED CHC
THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD BEFORE
ADVERTISING DRYING CONDITIONS BY LATE WEEK. INITIAL LOOK AT
DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR A NORTHWEST FLOW SEVERE CONVECTION SETUP WITH OUR
REGION RESIDING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY TO OUR SOUTHWEST. TOO EARLY FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT TO GET TOO EXCITED BUT TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS
THE TIMING NEARS. WITH FCST 850-HPA TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM WELL
INTO THE UPPER TEENS...FCST HIGHS BY THU AND FRI WILL LIKELY WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY PASSES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT AT ALL TAF SITES AS DRY AIR HAS MOVED
INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL START
TO DISSIPATE FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TODAY AS
MORE DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY
TO CLEAR TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO KRME AND KSYR
LATE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
PUT IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ022>025-
044>046-055>057-062.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ009-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MLJ
NEAR TERM...DGM/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...
000
FXUS61 KOKX 251139
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
739 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SETTLES TO OUR SOUTH INTO TUESDAY. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY
LIFTS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT THEN STALLS
OUT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NE TODAY...WITH POPS DECREASING
FROM CATEGORICAL FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE DAY FOR OCCASIONAL TO
SCT -SHRA. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT TRANSITING THE AREA A LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING
SOME GRAUPEL. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REFLECT IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY NW WINDS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND SFC-850
LOW TO OUR NE - BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH. NOTE - IF
STRONGER WINDS FROM 950-850 HPA IN THE GFS ARE REALIZED (VICE
WINDS 5-10 KT LOWER IN THE NAM/ECMWF) - THEN COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED GUSTS TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO THE N AND W OF NYC.
FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FROM THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 ACROSS N
INTERIOR ZONES TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NYC METRO. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR STAYED IN
THE MID 40S. THESE HIGHS ARE SOME 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP OF CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NE WITH DECREASING POPS FROM
SW TO NE FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DID LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NE 1/3
OF THE CWA IN DEFERENCE TO SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY...BUT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE CUTOFF PULLS AWAY - ALLOWING FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
SLOWLY RELAX OVER THE REGION.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS
SHOULD BE TOO STRONG FOR FROST FORMATION ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR
ZONES. ON SUNDAY...USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...MAV/MET GUIDANCE BLEND...AND A MIX DOWN FROM 800
HPA...FOR HIGHS WITH READINGS FORECAST AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER...WITH DRY WEATHER.
FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES FORECAST 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...EXCEPT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN NYC. WINDS SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN BE TOO STRONG FOR FROST FORMATION ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES.
FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 800 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR NORMAL - WITH POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPING IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AS MUCH AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH
MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECE/WPC GUIDANCE FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...SO
FOLLOWED A BLEND.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
PASSING SHORTWAVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL ENABLE
A WARM FRONT TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...WITH THE FRONT STALLING
OUT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR W ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN CHANCE POPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
DO LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THERE
IS SOME QUESTION HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT CLEARS TO THE N.
DEPENDING ON EXACT PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE
MEAN/ECE/ECE ENSEMBLE MEAN/WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES START OUT
NEAR NORMAL...BUT RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY.
NW WINDS RAMPING UP DURING THE DAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS REACHING
30KT BY 14-15Z. GUSTS THEN EVENTUALLY INCREASE TO 35-39KT THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40-43KT POSSIBLE.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A WIND DIRECTION AROUND 320 TRUE.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR TO START...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
VFR BY NOON. SOME TERMINALS MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR UP
UNTIL THEN.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IN SHRA TODAY WITH COLD TEMPS
ALOFT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN...VFR. NW GUSTS AROUND 30 KT.
.MON...VFR.
.TUE-WED...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT
TUES NIGHT AND WEDS.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
NW FLOW STRENGTHENS TODAY. MIGHT NOT BE UNTIL AROUND NOON BEFORE
SOME OF THE WATERS REACHES GALE FORCE GUSTS...AND GUSTS OVER THE NY
HARBOR AND LONG ISLAND BAYS COULD SUBSIDE UNDER 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...THE GALE WARNING MIGHT NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO PART OF SUNDAY MORNING OVER SOME OF THE WATERS AS MIXING
DEEPENS AGAIN. WINDS THEN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH AT LEAST SCA CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE DAY.
ALL WATERS THEN FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUES FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UNDER 15
KT. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH THIS MORNING COULD PRODUCE POCKETS OF MINOR FLOODING OF
POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN LOCATIONS.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-
350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
000
FXUS61 KALY 251137
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
737 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL STORM WILL PROMOTE UNSEASONABLY COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THIS BEGINNING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF WARMER
WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE NEARLY
VERTICAL STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT MOST OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THIS LOW BECOMES
CAPTURED...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS SURFACE LOW TO RETROGRADE
SOMEWHAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MOS AND LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RATHER COLD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING
TOO MUCH FROM CURRENT VALUES. THE LOWER LEVEL WIND MAGNITUDES PER
THE RAP/RUC13 CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INCREASING WIND FIELD TODAY
WITH GUSTS OVER 30KTS AT TIMES. SO MAIN UPDATE WAS TO POP/WX GRID
THIS MORNING AND HOURLY TEMP/DEWPT.
PREV DISC...
UPPER LOW BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CAPTURE
THE SURFACE LOW OVER CAPE COD LATER TODAY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. THIS WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
FLOW OF MOISTURE AND COOL AIR THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. THE
850-500 LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINS QUITE STRONG THROUGH
THE DAY TO KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...PER THE
DUAL POL DATA...THE FREEZING LEVELS CONTINUES TO DROP AND WE WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR/SEE SOME SLEET AND/OR GRAUPEL THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE OTHER ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS
AS H925-H850 WIND MAGNITUDES CLIMB TO AND ABOVE 50KTS. WHILE WE
WILL NOT COMPLETELY MIX TO THESE LAYERS...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST
FOR SOME OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO TRANSFER DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. APPARENT TEMPS /WIND CHILLS/ TODAY WILL AVERAGE
INTO THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY INTO
THE 40S. OUR NORMAL HIGH FOR TODAY IN ALBANY IS 72...GLENS FALLS
IS 70...AND 74 DEGREES IN POUGHKEEPSIE. IN FACT...WITH OUR CURRENT
FORECAST HIGH IN THE 40S FOR ALBANY...THIS WOULD SET A NEW LOW
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE /PREVIOUS RECORD IS 51 DEGREES IN 1967/.
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GULF OF MAINE. DEFORMATION AXIS REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
WITH THIS ZONE OF INFLUENCE WEAKENING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP POPS RATHER HIGH ALONG WITH A BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BUT NOT AS
GUSTY DUE TO LIMITED MIXING POTENTIAL. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BE A LITTLE COOLER AS WE FOLLOWED A BLENDED APPROACH FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S CWA-WIDE. THE
CHANCE FOR ANOTHER RECORD FOR ALBANY AS LOW MEAN TEMPERATURE FOR
THE DATE IS 44.5 SET IN 1925. DUE TO THE ELEVATED WIND
MAGNITUDES AND PRECIPITATION...THIS WOULD PRECLUDE ANY MENTION OF
FROST FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH LOWERING WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS...THE CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY TYPE MIXED PRECIPITATION
INCREASES FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW BEGINS TO FILL FURTHER AND BECOME
FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE REGION WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. SKY
COVERAGE MAY TAKE SOME ADDITIONAL TIME BUT THOUGHTS ARE WE SHOULD
SEE SOME PEAKS OF THE SUNSHINE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND JUST
BEFORE SUNSET. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER TIGHT WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRISK DAY ONCE AGAIN WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AROUND 30KTS AS PER THE BUFR PROFILES WE EFFECTIVELY MIX CLOSE TO
H850. GIVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE FOR NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS COULD EXPERIENCE
TEMPERATURES DIPPING AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH THE REMAINDER OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EXPERIENCING FROST CONDITIONS. AFTER
COLLABORATION...WE WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO AND MAKE FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS BEFORE ISSUING FREEZE WATCHES. AS LATE MAY SUNSHINE
RETURNS FOR MEMORIAL DAY...FORECAST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
TOWARD SEASONABLE VALUES /LOWER 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND WITH A RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA. WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
MINS FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THERE COULD BE SOME CONTINUED
FROST/FREEZE ISSUES FOR SOUTHERN GREENS AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE FOR TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR
A LIGHT S-SW WIND TO TAKE OVER AT LOW LEVELS. WARM ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN AT MID LEVELS...ESP BY LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL
START OFF SUNNY...SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY START TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION BY AFTN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN MONDAY...WITH MID TO
UPPER 70S IN MANY AREAS.
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BECOME STRONGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A SURFACE WARM FRONT
WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A SHORTWAVE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A CHC FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. MIN TEMPS
ON TUESDAY NIGHT WON/T BE AS COOL...WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
ON WED WILL BE MUCH WARMER...WITH 80S FOR MOST PLACES...AS 850 HPA
TEMPS SURGE TO 14 TO 16 DEGREES C. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
IS IN PLACE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED TIME FOR
SEVERE WX IN OUR AREA.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
80S EXPECTED AS THE REGION REMAINS DOMINATED BY THE STRONG RIDGE AT
500 HPA. WITH OUR AREA BEING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
RIDGE...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES PASSING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS THIS IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR THURS...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS DRY AND WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID
TO END THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. A STEADY RAIN IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING ALL
THE EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS. WHILE THE RAIN
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT IN INTENSITY...IT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. BY LATE IN THE DAY...THE RAIN MAY BE MORE SHOWERY IN
COVERAGE FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY MVFR...MAINLY FOR CIGS. THIS LOOKS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATELY STAY MVFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HOWEVER...BASED OFF THE RECENT TREND IN OBSERVATIONS...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR FOR VSBYS IS POSSIBLE AT KALB THIS MORNING. KPSF MAY
ALSO SEE LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS FOR CIGS...AND IT WOULDN/T TAKE
MUCH FOR A BRIEF REDUCTION TO IFR CONDITIONS AT THAT TERMINAL AS
WELL.
THE FLOW AROUND THE STORM WILL MAKE FOR GUSTY N-NW WINDS...ESP FOR
THE AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESP FOR KALB.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NIGHT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
WED...VFR. MVFR PSBL WITH CHC PM SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE COASTAL LOW
REMAINS IN THE VICINITY KEEPING CONDITIONS UNSETTLED. THIS WILL
KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH DESPITE THE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WIND. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO MEMORIAL DAY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RADAR CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT BRIGHT BANDING WHICH IS RESULTING IN
HIGHER RADAR RETURNS BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT.
6-HR TOTALS WHERE 1/2 OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH AHPS RIVER POINTS
SHOWING EITHER WITHIN BANK RISES OR NEAR STEADY FLOWS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE TO NONE EXPECTED HYDRO ISSUES.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL
DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS TO SLOWLY RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
000
FXUS61 KBTV 251133
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. FURTHERMORE...SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS OF THE ADIRONDACK AND
GREEN MOUNTAINS. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON
LOCAL WATERWAYS...WITH SOME RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 656 AM EDT SATURDAY...VERY MINOR UPDATE TO FINE TUNE
POPS/TEMPS AND WINDS BASED ON CRNT OBS. RADAR CONTS TO SHOW BANDS
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ROTATING ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SOME BRIGHT
BAND SIGNATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MELTING LAYER ON KCXX RADAR.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLASSIC BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZN DEVELOPING
ACRS CENTRAL VT INTO NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS WL PRODUCE PERIODS OF
RAIN...WITH SOME HEAVY AT TIMES THRU TODAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK GOOD.
JUST STARTING TO SEE RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS AND EXPECT RIVER FLOODING
TO BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE BY THIS AFTN. FLOOD WATCH LOOKS VERY
GOOD. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL HOLD IN THE M/U 30S MTNS TO L/M40S
VALLEYS WITH SOME L/M50S POSSIBLE IN THE SLV TODAY. HAVE DISCARDED
THE LAV GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS BTV DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S BY NOON
TODAY...ITS LATE MAY AND THIS SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY.
AS FOR THE SNOW...PICO WEB CAM SHOWS THE SUMMIT IS WHITE...WITH
SOME MIXING OF SNOW AND RAIN DOWN TO THE KILLINGTON BASE AREA.
CRNT ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 3500FT...EXPECT THEM TO
DROP BTWN 2000 AND 2500 FT BY THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONT
ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS ABOVE 3500 FT...AS WHITEFACE SUMMIT TEMP IS
DOWN TO 27F.
OVERALL FCST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS AND
IMPACTS ACRS OUR CWA. STILL ANTICIPATING STORM TOTAL PRECIP OF 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCH AMOUNTS ACRS THE WESTERN
SLOPES...PARTS OF THE CPV...AND MTNS OF NORTH-CENTRAL VT BY SUNDAY
AFTN. IN ADDITION...STILL EXPECTING SOME ACCUMULATING HEAVY WET
SNOW ABOVE 2000 FEET...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND GREEN MTNS.
FCST CHALLENGE IS IMPACTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ON AREA
WATERWAYS...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF SNOW ACRS HIGHER TRRN.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE NEGATIVELY TILTED 7/5H CIRCULATION
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE ACRS
OUR FA ASSOCIATED WITH RRQ OF 25H JET OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS
CLOSED SYSTEM WL ADVECT PLENTY OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO OUR
CWA THRU TONIGHT...WITH FAVORABLE BACKSIDE DEFORMATION DEVELOPING BY
THIS EVENING. OVERALL...MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM
BECMG VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE...AND THE ASSOCIATED
QPF ACRS OUR CWA. GFS/NAM AND ECMWF ALL SHOW IMPRESSIVE 7H FGEN
FORCING...STRONG 850 TO 500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND DEEP 850
TO 500MB UVVS ACRS OUR CWA THRU 06Z SUNDAY. THIS WL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH WL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY THRU THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...SYSTEM WL TRANSITION FROM LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO
MESOSCALE FEATURES DRIVE BY THE TRRN. GFS/NAM SHOWS VERY FAVORABLE
850 TO 700MB RH AND LLVL WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ENHANCED
PRECIP ACRS THE CPV...WESTERN SLOPES...AND NORTH/CENTRAL MTNS OF VT.
THIS FAVORABLE MOISTURE/LIFT IS PRESENT THRU 18Z SUNDAY...BEFORE
FINALLY WEAKENING BY EVENING. WL CONT TO MENTION POPS NEAR 100% FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY/CAT POPS ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MORNING. GIVEN...THE DEEP CLOSED CIRCULATION FEEL PRECIP/CLOUDS
WL LINGER THRU MIDDAY SUNDAY...BUT WL TAPER OFF BY AFTN. ALSO...FEEL
QPF/POPS WL BE MUCH LESS ACRS THE SLV...AS MODELS SHOW LIMITED
LIFT/RH. THINKING MOSTLY LOW LIKELY WESTERN DACKS TO CHC POPS SLV.
THIS AREA WL ALSO SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS ON SAT AND SUNDAY...HIGHS IN
THE 50S.
STILL ANTICIPATING STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES WITH
LOCALIZED 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...ACRS THE CPV...WESTERN SLOPES...AND
MTNS OF NORTHERN VT. THINKING CPV CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLW WL
HELP TO ENHANCE QPF AMOUNTS ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND CPV. MUCH
LESS QPF IS ANTICIPATED ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS...GENERALLY
<0.25". ALSO...THINKING AMOUNTS ACRS THE CT RIVER VALLEY WL BE
CLOSER TO 1.0". THIS WL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS...WITH SOME MAIN STEM FLOODING POSSIBLE. SEE HDYRO SECTION
BLW FOR MORE INFO.
NOW FOR THE HARDEST PART OF THE FCST...TRYING TO DETERMINE SNOW
LEVELS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS. NAM/GFS AND LOCAL WRF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THERMAL PROFILES BECMG COLD ENOUGH BY 00Z THIS EVENING FOR SNOW
ABOVE 2000 FT. STILL HAVING A HARD TIME DETERMINING WHERE THE COLD
AIR IS COMING FROM...AS OUR LLVL CAA IS LIMITED. THINKING DYNAMIC
COOLING AND HEAVIER PRECIP WL MIX COLDER AIR ALOFT TWD THE
SFC...AS COLD CORE LOW MOVES CLOSER. THIS IS EXTREMELY TRICKY TO
DETERMINE...ESPECIALLY IN LATE MAY...WITH A VERY HIGH SUN ANGLE.
HAVE NOTED 28F AT WHITEFACE AND 32 ATOP MOUNT MANSFIELD....WITH
WHITEFACE WEB CAM ALREADY SHOWING THE GROUND WHITE...BEFORE SUNSET
ON FRIDAY EVENING. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW A RIBBON OF 85H TEMPS BTWN
-1C AND -3C...AND 925MB TEMPS NEAR 0C DEVELOPING ACRS OUR CWA
TODAY. THINKING SNOW LEVELS WL START NEAR SUMMIT LEVEL (3500 TO
4000 FEET) TODAY...BUT DROP TO NEAR 2000 FT BY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT A SHARP INCREASE IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACRS THE MTNS AS
YOU INCREASE YOUR ELEVATION ABOVE 2500 FT. THINKING BTWN 1 AND 3 INCHES
WL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING BTWN 2000 AND 2500 FEET...WITH
OVER 6 INCHES LIKELY AT THE SUMMITS FROM MT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK. I
REALIZE WE TECHNICALLY DON`T FCST FOR THE SUMMITS...BUT GIVEN THE
HOLIDAY WKND AND POTENTIAL FOR HIKERS/CAMPERS IN THE MTNS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WL ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL. ON A SIDE NOTE...IF WE CAN CLR SKIES LATE SUNDAY
AFTN...THE SNOW COVERED MTN SUMMITS SHOULD MAKE FOR SOME GREAT
PICTURES.
THE COMBINATION OF PRECIP/CLOUDS AND PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C...WL
SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE M/U30S MTNS TO L/M 40S CPV/CT RIVER
VALLEY. WARMEST TEMPS WL BE ACRS THE SLV...READINGS WL WARM INTO THE
50S. TEMPS WL ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...AS WINDS/PRECIP AND
CLOUDS PREVAIL...THINKING L/M 30S MTNS TO U30S TO L40S. ON
SUNDAY...TEMPS WL BECM TRICKY...ESPECIALLY IF WE BREAK OUT INTO SOME
SUN LATE IN THE AFTN. EXPECT LATE DAY HIGHS FOR THE CPV...WITH
VALUES REACHING THE L/M 50S...WITH MAINLY 40S IN THE MTNS AND L60S
IN THE SLV. MOST OF THE MARATHON WL EXPERIENCE LIGHT RAIN WITH COOL
TEMPS AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE ON SUNDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE BY SUNDAY AFTN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR 50F...AND LIGHTER WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL SLOWLY LIFT NE INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS
WL RESULT IN A SLOW CLEARING TREND WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL LVLS BY MONDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FROST ACRS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE DACKS AND PARTS OF
VT. THIS MAYBE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE VERY SATURATED LLVLS AND
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IF SKIES CLR AND WINDS DECREASE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT SATURDAY...PATTERN CHANGE TAKES PLACE IN THE EXTENDED
AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXISTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. WE WILL START TO SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKE PLACE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WHEN A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AND WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN. FIRST THE WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE
A FOCUS WEDNESDAY FOR CONVECTION AS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THUS HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LINGERING THREAT ON THURSDAY AS
FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE BORDER. ONCE IT
DOES...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND BRINGS IN NOTICEABLY
WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LACK OF FORCING
SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE THREAT IS MINIMAL AND HAVE THUS KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR AND
IFR CATEGORIES AT MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO CLOUDS...FOG...AND RAIN.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE KMSS WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST AS THEY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE COAST THAT IS PRODUCING ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WATCH FOR WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER
14Z FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED.
AFTER 06Z THE WIND GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AROUND 10 KNOTS...BUT
CEILINGS WILL STILL BE IN THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES AND VISIBILITIES
WILL IMPROVE A BIT INTO THE MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND AS SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SUNDAY. A SLOW CLEARING TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 440 AM SATURDAY...A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...STORM TOTAL PRECIP VALUES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES...PARTS OF THE
CPV...AND MTNS OF NORTH-CENTRAL VT BY SUNDAY AFTN. LOCALLY RUN
SSHP MODEL HYDROGRAPHS SUGGEST THESE TOTALS WILL LIKELY BRING
NUMEROUS SMALL STREAMS TO BANKFULL...AND SEVERAL MAINSTEM RIVERS
INTO FLOOD BY THIS AFTN INTO SUNDAY. THUS A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE
FOR THIS POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...THE RIVERS OF MOST CONCERN
WOULD BE THE MISSISQUOI...LAMOILLE...OTTER...AND PASSUMPSIC IN
VERMONT...AND THE AUSABLE RIVER IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. GIVEN THE
CURRENT TRENDS IN RAINFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS...MOST RIVER CRESTS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 440 PM SATURDAY...LOOKING TO BE A PRETTY MISERABLE START TO THE
PRIME BOATING SEASON ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A STORM MORE TYPICAL OF
WINTER WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE OPEN LAKE. FOR THAT REASON, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
POSTED AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE WINDS FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS.
THESE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS, WITH
WAVES ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE ULTIMATELY BUILDING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6
FEET. A STEADY RAIN AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S ON TODAY WILL
ADD TO THE MISERY.
THE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR BOATING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH THE UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TODAY...SOME
RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE APPROACHED OR BROKEN. THEY ARE LISTED
BELOW.
BURLINGTON: 51F (1921,1925)
MONTPELIER: 48F (1967)
MASSENA: 55F (1969,1979)
ST JOHNSBURY: 52F (1931,1925)
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-031-034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV
MARINE...WFO BTV
CLIMATE...WFO BTV
000
FXUS61 KBTV 251111
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. FURTHERMORE...SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS OF THE ADIRONDACK AND
GREEN MOUNTAINS. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON
LOCAL WATERWAYS...WITH SOME RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 656 AM EDT SATURDAY...VERY MINOR UPDATE TO FINE TUNE
POPS/TEMPS AND WINDS BASED ON CRNT OBS. RADAR CONTS TO SHOW BANDS
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ROTATING ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SOME BRIGHT
BAND SIGNATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MELTING LAYER ON KCXX RADAR.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLASSIC BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZN DEVELOPING
ACRS CENTRAL VT INTO NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS WL PRODUCE PERIODS OF
RAIN...WITH SOME HEAVY AT TIMES THRU TODAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK GOOD.
JUST STARTING TO SEE RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS AND EXPECT RIVER FLOODING
TO BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE BY THIS AFTN. FLOOD WATCH LOOKS VERY
GOOD. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL HOLD IN THE M/U 30S MTNS TO L/M40S
VALLEYS WITH SOME L/M50S POSSIBLE IN THE SLV TODAY. HAVE DISCARDED
THE LAV GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS BTV DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S BY NOON
TODAY...ITS LATE MAY AND THIS SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY.
AS FOR THE SNOW...PICO WEB CAM SHOWS THE SUMMIT IS WHITE...WITH
SOME MIXING OF SNOW AND RAIN DOWN TO THE KILLINGTON BASE AREA.
CRNT ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 3500FT...EXPECT THEM TO
DROP BTWN 2000 AND 2500 FT BY THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONT
ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS ABOVE 3500 FT...AS WHITEFACE SUMMIT TEMP IS
DOWN TO 27F.
OVERALL FCST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS AND
IMPACTS ACRS OUR CWA. STILL ANTICIPATING STORM TOTAL PREICP OF 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCH AMOUNTS ACRS THE WESTERN
SLOPES...PARTS OF THE CPV...AND MTNS OF NORTH-CENTRAL VT BY SUNDAY
AFTN. IN ADDITION...STILL EXPECTING SOME ACCUMULATING HEAVY WET
SNOW ABOVE 2000 FEET...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND GREEN MTNS.
FCST CHALLENGE IS IMPACTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ON AREA
WATERWAYS...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF SNOW ACRS HIGHER TRRN.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE NEGATIVELY TILTED 7/5H CIRCULATION
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE ACRS
OUR FA ASSOCIATED WITH RRQ OF 25H JET OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS
CLOSED SYSTEM WL ADVECT PLENTY OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO OUR
CWA THRU TONIGHT...WITH FAVORABLE BACKSIDE DEFORMATION DEVELOPING BY
THIS EVENING. OVERALL...MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM
BECMG VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE...AND THE ASSOCIATED
QPF ACRS OUR CWA. GFS/NAM AND ECMWF ALL SHOW IMPRESSIVE 7H FGEN
FORCING...STRONG 850 TO 500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND DEEP 850
TO 500MB UVVS ACRS OUR CWA THRU 06Z SUNDAY. THIS WL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH WL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY THRU THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...SYSTEM WL TRANSITION FROM LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO
MESOSCALE FEATURES DRIVE BY THE TRRN. GFS/NAM SHOWS VERY FAVORABLE
850 TO 700MB RH AND LLVL WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ENHANCED
PRECIP ACRS THE CPV...WESTERN SLOPES...AND NORTH/CENTRAL MTNS OF VT.
THIS FAVORABLE MOISTURE/LIFT IS PRESENT THRU 18Z SUNDAY...BEFORE
FINALLY WEAKENING BY EVENING. WL CONT TO MENTION POPS NEAR 100% FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY/CAT POPS ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MORNING. GIVEN...THE DEEP CLOSED CIRCULATION FEEL PRECIP/CLOUDS
WL LINGER THRU MIDDAY SUNDAY...BUT WL TAPER OFF BY AFTN. ALSO...FEEL
QPF/POPS WL BE MUCH LESS ACRS THE SLV...AS MODELS SHOW LIMITED
LIFT/RH. THINKING MOSTLY LOW LIKELY WESTERN DACKS TO CHC POPS SLV.
THIS AREA WL ALSO SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS ON SAT AND SUNDAY...HIGHS IN
THE 50S.
STILL ANTICIPATING STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES WITH
LOCALIZED 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...ACRS THE CPV...WESTERN SLOPES...AND
MTNS OF NORTHERN VT. THINKING CPV CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLW WL
HELP TO ENHANCE QPF AMOUNTS ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND CPV. MUCH
LESS QPF IS ANTICIPATED ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS...GENERALLY
<0.25". ALSO...THINKING AMOUNTS ACRS THE CT RIVER VALLEY WL BE
CLOSER TO 1.0". THIS WL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS...WITH SOME MAIN STEM FLOODING POSSIBLE. SEE HDYRO SECTION
BLW FOR MORE INFO.
NOW FOR THE HARDEST PART OF THE FCST...TRYING TO DETERMINE SNOW
LEVELS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS. NAM/GFS AND LOCAL WRF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THERMAL PROFILES BECMG COLD ENOUGH BY 00Z THIS EVENING FOR SNOW
ABOVE 2000 FT. STILL HAVING A HARD TIME DETERMINING WHERE THE COLD
AIR IS COMING FROM...AS OUR LLVL CAA IS LIMITED. THINKING DYNAMIC
COOLING AND HEAVIER PRECIP WL MIX COLDER AIR ALOFT TWD THE
SFC...AS COLD CORE LOW MOVES CLOSER. THIS IS EXTREMELY TRICKY TO
DETERMINE...ESPECIALLY IN LATE MAY...WITH A VERY HIGH SUN ANGLE.
HAVE NOTED 28F AT WHITEFACE AND 32 ATOP MOUNT MANSFIELD....WITH
WHITEFACE WEB CAM ALREADY SHOWING THE GROUND WHITE...BEFORE SUNSET
ON FRIDAY EVENING. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW A RIBBON OF 85H TEMPS BTWN
-1C AND -3C...AND 925MB TEMPS NEAR 0C DEVELOPING ACRS OUR CWA
TODAY. THINKING SNOW LEVELS WL START NEAR SUMMIT LEVEL (3500 TO
4000 FEET) TODAY...BUT DROP TO NEAR 2000 FT BY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT A SHARP INCREASE IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACRS THE MTNS AS
YOU INCREASE YOUR ELEVATION ABOVE 2500 FT. THINKING BTWN 1 AND 3 INCHES
WL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING BTWN 2000 AND 2500 FEET...WITH
OVER 6 INCHES LIKELY AT THE SUMMITS FROM MT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK. I
REALIZE WE TECHNICALLY DON`T FCST FOR THE SUMMITS...BUT GIVEN THE
HOLIDAY WKND AND POTENTIAL FOR HIKERS/CAMPERS IN THE MTNS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WL ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL. ON A SIDE NOTE...IF WE CAN CLR SKIES LATE SUNDAY
AFTN...THE SNOW COVERED MTN SUMMITS SHOULD MAKE FOR SOME GREAT
PICTURES.
THE COMBINATION OF PRECIP/CLOUDS AND PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C...WL
SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE M/U30S MTNS TO L/M 40S CPV/CT RIVER
VALLEY. WARMEST TEMPS WL BE ACRS THE SLV...READINGS WL WARM INTO THE
50S. TEMPS WL ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...AS WINDS/PRECIP AND
CLOUDS PREVAIL...THINKING L/M 30S MTNS TO U30S TO L40S. ON
SUNDAY...TEMPS WL BECM TRICKY...ESPECIALLY IF WE BREAK OUT INTO SOME
SUN LATE IN THE AFTN. EXPECT LATE DAY HIGHS FOR THE CPV...WITH
VALUES REACHING THE L/M 50S...WITH MAINLY 40S IN THE MTNS AND L60S
IN THE SLV. MOST OF THE MARATHON WL EXPERIENCE LIGHT RAIN WITH COOL
TEMPS AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE ON SUNDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE BY SUNDAY AFTN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR 50F...AND LIGHTER WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL SLOWLY LIFT NE INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS
WL RESULT IN A SLOW CLRING TREND WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL LVLS BY MONDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FROST ACRS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE DACKS AND PARTS OF
VT. THIS MAYBE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE VERY SATURATED LLVLS AND
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IF SKIES CLR AND WINDS DECREASE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT SATURDAY...PATTERN CHANGE TAKES PLACE IN THE EXTENDED
AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXISTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. WE WILL START TO SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKE PLACE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WHEN A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AND WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN. FIRST THE WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE
A FOCUS WEDNESDAY FOR CONVECTION AS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THUS HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LINGERING THREAT ON THURSDAY AS
FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE BORDER. ONCE IT
DOES...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND BRINGS IN NOTICEABLY
WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LACK OF FORCING
SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE THREAT IS MINIMAL AND HAVE THUS KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR AND
IFR CATEGORIES AT MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO CLOUDS...FOG...AND RAIN.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE KMSS WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST AS THEY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE COAST THAT IS PRODUCING ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WATCH FOR WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER
14Z FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND AS SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SUNDAY. A SLOW CLEARING TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 440 AM SATURDAY...A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...STORM TOTAL PREICP VALUES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES...PARTS OF THE
CPV...AND MTNS OF NORTH-CENTRAL VT BY SUNDAY AFTN. LOCALLY RUN
SSHP MODEL HYDROGRAPHS SUGGEST THESE TOTALS WILL LIKELY BRING
NUMEROUS SMALL STREAMS TO BANKFULL...AND SEVERAL MAINSTEM RIVERS
INTO FLOOD BY THIS AFTN INTO SUNDAY. THUS A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE
FOR THIS POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...THE RIVERS OF MOST CONCERN
WOULD BE THE MISSISQUOI...LAMOILLE...OTTER...AND PASSUMPSIC IN
VERMONT...AND THE AUSABLE RIVER IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. GIVEN THE
CURRENT TRENDS IN RAINFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS...MOST RIVER CRESTS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 440 PM SATURDAY...LOOKING TO BE A PRETTY MISERABLE START TO THE
PRIME BOATING SEASON ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A STORM MORE TYPICAL OF
WINTER WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE OPEN LAKE. FOR THAT REASON, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
POSTED AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE WINDS FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS.
THESE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS, WITH
WAVES ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE ULTIMATELY BUILDING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6
FEET. A STEADY RAIN AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S ON TODAY WILL
ADD TO THE MISERY.
THE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR BOATING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH THE UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TODAY...SOME
RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE APPROACHED OR BROKEN. THEY ARE LISTED
BELOW.
BURLINGTON: 51F (1921,1925)
MONTPELIER: 48F (1967)
MASSENA: 55F (1969,1979)
ST JOHNSBURY: 52F (1931,1925)
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-031-034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS
HYDROLOGY...TABER
MARINE...WFO BTV
CLIMATE...WFO BTV
000
FXUS61 KBUF 251058
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
658 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
MAINLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 700 AM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CLOSING OFF IN
THE UPPER LEVELS NEAR LONG ISLAND. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL BECOME
VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT VERY SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARD CAPE COD
THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES.
FOR THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN NEW YORK...THIS PATTERN WILL BRING FAIR
BUT COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY. CLOUDS INITIALLY LINGERED SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT DRIER AIR HAS PREVAILED
LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK.
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS JUST
CLIPPING THE EASTERN HALF OF LEWIS COUNTY...AND THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. DISTURBANCES WILL
PERIODICALLY PIVOT AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...WHICH MAY BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES A BIT WESTWARD INTO OSWEGO/JEFFERSON
COUNTIES TODAY. PREFER THE RGEM GUIDANCE OVER THE TOO OPTIMISTIC NAM
AND TOO PESSIMISTIC GFS/EURO. FOLLOWING THIS...EXPECT CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS A SHOWERS TO LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...WITH A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TODAY...WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60...EVEN IN AREAS OF FULL SUN. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. MODEST NW WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN A BIT COOLER.
EXPECT TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
CLOUD COVER BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES THE RESULT
WILL LIKELY BE QUITE SIMILAR. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL BE CHILLY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP LOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING
WILL LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON MONDAY. THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS THAT ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN LEWIS COUNTY
SUNDAY...BUT THE BULK OF ANY PCPN SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO THE EAST.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND THE PERSISTENT LOW.
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO THE LAKES WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S...BUT INLAND
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE READINGS COOLING INTO THE 30S...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE AREAS OF FROST AND/OR A FREEZE ARE
POSSIBLE.
ON MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CREST OVER NEW YORK STATE AND BRING
MORE SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CHARACTERIZE THIS
PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OUT WEST.
AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NAM STILL LIFTS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH FASTER
AND BRINGS SHOWERS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE
THE GFS AND ECMWF HOLD THE PCPN OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND FOLLOW
THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY
...HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD...AND TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL
LIKELY WARM BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION. THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY CAP AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...AND THUS WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY THAT A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY...AS
DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CLOSE OFF IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH OUR REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.
EXPECT A GENERAL CLEARING TREND THROUGH 12Z AT MOST TAF SITES...WITH
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS VFR IN THE 5-6K FT RANGE. AFTER THIS EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT AT BUF/IAG/ROC/JHW. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER AT ART WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE LOW.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR CAPE COD WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT NW FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT...THIS WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS MARGINAL TO SCA FOR MOST
OF THE WATERS...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE WATER TONIGHT HAS HELPED AID
MIXING...AND BECAUSE OF THIS THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED A BIT ON LAKE ERIE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY INCREASE MODESTLY
TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE MORE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON EASTERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. AFTER THIS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH DIMINISHING WINDS ON SUNDAY ONWARD.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ019>021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LOZ043>045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LOZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...TJP
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/TJP
000
FXUS61 KBGM 251049
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
649 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A MODERATION
BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL READINGS ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR...BUT DRIER WEATHER IS FORESEEN
STARTING SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
430 AM UPDATE... DEFORMATION PCPN BAND PERSISTS EARLY THIS MRNG
ACRS OUR ERN ZNS...WITH A DEEPENING UPR-LVL LOW PARKED NEAR NYC
ATTM. ONE MORE SIG SHRT WV WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DROPPING SEWD ACRS THE UPR LKS RGN AS OF THIS WRITING...AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD WRAP INTO THE UPPER LOW LTR TDY. ONCE THAT
HAPPENS...THE UPR VORTEX IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW EWD
PUSH OFF THE NEW ENG COAST. UNTIL THAT TIME...LOOK FOR NUMEROUS
-SHRA THIS AM...TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SCTD IN NATURE AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE AFTN HRS...E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. BACK TO THE
W...LTL OR NO SHWR ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED...WITH BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
DUE TO MORE CLDS/PERSISTENT PCPN...THE CHILLIEST READINGS TDY WILL
BE ACRS ERN PTNS OF THE FA...WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN CERTAINLY NOT
GETTING OUT OF THE 40S ONCE AGN. FARTHER W...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO REACH WELL INTO THE 50S...AND PROBABLY NEAR 60...SPCLY
ACRS NORMALLY WARMER URBANIZED VLYS.
WINDS STILL LOOK GUSTY...WITH STEEP LOW-LVL LR`S AND A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT AT PLAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
445 AM UPDATE... WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS EVE AS THE LOW
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZE...SPCLY W OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR.
ALSO...WITH THE UPR LOW SLOWLY MOVING AWAY...GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM W TO E DURG THE OVERNIGHT PD. THIS MAY OPEN
THE DOOR FOR FROST CONDS ACRS THE TWIN TIERS. OF COURSE...THE PACE
THAT SKIES CLEAR OUT LTR TNT...AND THAT WINDS DIMINISH...WILL BE
KEY COMPONENTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RESIDENT CHILLY AMS...AND TIME
OF YEAR (MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS PLANTING TIME FOR MANY
LOCALS)...WE FELT IT PRUDENT TO HOIST FROST ADVSYS FOR LATE
TNT/EARLY SUN.
SUN THROUGH MON CONTS TO LOOK DRY...WITH SKIES BCMG MAINLY
CLEAR...AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE W...AND HGTS ALOFT RISE
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WRN ATLANTIC UPR LOW.
POTENTIALLY VERY COLD TEMPS LATE SUN NGT INTO EARLY MON WILL AGN
BE THE MAIN FCST HIGHLIGHT THIS PD. IF ANYTHING...SUN NGT STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE THE COLDEST READINGS OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST RADIATING CONDS BY THIS TIME. THUS...AGN
CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR...WE`VE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FA...SAVE THE LAKE PLAIN CNTYS. SOME UPR 20S ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE USUALLY COLDER MORE PROTECTED VLYS.
HOWEVER...BY MON AFTN...SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL BE WELL
UNDERWAY...WITH HIGHS BACK UP NEAR 70 DEGS BY THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY WELL ADVERTISED WARM UP EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK AS BROAD
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS HOWEVER...FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING STALLED SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA WITH DEVELOPING
SHWRS/POSSIBLE THUNDER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST
RIDGE AXIS BUILDING FROM OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE MAINTAINED CHC
THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD BEFORE
ADVERTISING DRYING CONDITIONS BY LATE WEEK. INITIAL LOOK AT
DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR A NORTHWEST FLOW SEVERE CONVECTION SETUP WITH OUR
REGION RESIDING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY TO OUR SOUTHWEST. TOO EARLY FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT TO GET TOO EXCITED BUT TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS
THE TIMING NEARS. WITH FCST 850-HPA TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM WELL
INTO THE UPPER TEENS...FCST HIGHS BY THU AND FRI WILL LIKELY WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY PASSES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT AT ALL TAF SITES AS DRY AIR HAS MOVED
INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL START
TO DISSIPATE FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TODAY AS
MORE DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY
TO CLEAR TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO KRME AND KSYR
LATE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
PUT IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ022>025-
044>046-055>057-062.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ009-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ022.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...KAH
000
FXUS61 KOKX 251044
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
644 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SETTLES TO OUR SOUTH INTO TUESDAY. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY
LIFTS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT THEN STALLS
OUT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NE TODAY...WITH POPS DECREASING
FROM CATEGORICAL FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE DAY FOR OCCASIONAL TO
SCT -SHRA. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT TRANSITING THE AREA A LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING
SOME GRAUPEL. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REFLECT IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY NW WINDS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND SFC-850
LOW TO OUR NE - BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH. NOTE - IF
STRONGER WINDS FROM 950-850 HPA IN THE GFS ARE REALIZED (VICE
WINDS 5-10 KT LOWER IN THE NAM/ECMWF) - THEN COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED GUSTS TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO THE N AND W OF NYC.
FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FROM THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 ACROSS N
INTERIOR ZONES TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NYC METRO. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR STAYED IN
THE MID 40S. THESE HIGHS ARE SOME 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP OF CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NE WITH DECREASING POPS FROM
SW TO NE FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DID LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NE 1/3
OF THE CWA IN DEFERENCE TO SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY...BUT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE CUTOFF PULLS AWAY - ALLOWING FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
SLOWLY RELAX OVER THE REGION.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS
SHOULD BE TOO STRONG FOR FROST FORMATION ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR
ZONES. ON SUNDAY...USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...MAV/MET GUIDANCE BLEND...AND A MIX DOWN FROM 800
HPA...FOR HIGHS WITH READINGS FORECAST AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER...WITH DRY WEATHER.
FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES FORECAST 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...EXCEPT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN NYC. WINDS SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN BE TOO STRONG FOR FROST FORMATION ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES.
FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 800 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR NORMAL - WITH POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPING IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AS MUCH AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH
MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECE/WPC GUIDANCE FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...SO
FOLLOWED A BLEND.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
PASSING SHORTWAVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL ENABLE
A WARM FRONT TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...WITH THE FRONT STALLING
OUT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR W ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN CHANCE POPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
DO LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THERE
IS SOME QUESTION HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT CLEARS TO THE N.
DEPENDING ON EXACT PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE
MEAN/ECE/ECE ENSEMBLE MEAN/WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES START OUT
NEAR NORMAL...BUT RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES NEAR CAPE COD WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GULF OF ME TODAY.
EXPECT A STRONG NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING OFFSHORE
LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS RAMPING UP DURING THE DAY
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 35-39KT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 40-43KT POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A WIND
DIRECTION RIGHT AROUND 320 TRUE.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR TO START...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
VFR BY AROUND NOON. SOME TERMINALS MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR UP UNTIL THEN.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IN SHRA TODAY WITH COLD TEMPS
ALOFT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. NW GUSTS 25-30 KT.
.SUN...VFR. NW GUSTS AROUND 30 KT.
.MON...VFR.
.TUE-WED...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT
TUES NIGHT AND WEDS.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
NW FLOW STRENGTHENS TODAY. MIGHT NOT BE UNTIL AROUND NOON BEFORE
SOME OF THE WATERS REACHES GALE FORCE GUSTS...AND GUSTS OVER THE NY
HARBOR AND LONG ISLAND BAYS COULD SUBSIDE UNDER 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...THE GALE WARNING MIGHT NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO PART OF SUNDAY MORNING OVER SOME OF THE WATERS AS MIXING
DEEPENS AGAIN. WINDS THEN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH AT LEAST SCA CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE DAY.
ALL WATERS THEN FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUES FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UNDER 15
KT. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH THIS MORNING COULD PRODUCE POCKETS OF MINOR FLOODING OF
POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN LOCATIONS.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-
350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
000
FXUS61 KALY 251041
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL STORM WILL PROMOTE UNSEASONABLY COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THIS BEGINNING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF WARMER
WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE NEARLY
VERTICAL STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT MOST OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THIS LOW BECOMES
CAPTURED...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS SURFACE LOW TO RETROGRADE
SOMEWHAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MOS AND LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RATHER COLD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING
TOO MUCH FROM CURRENT VALUES. THE LOWER LEVEL WIND MAGNITUDES PER
THE RAP/RUC13 CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INCREASING WIND FIELD TODAY
WITH GUSTS OVER 30KTS AT TIMES. SO MAIN UPDATE WAS TO POP/WX GRID
THIS MORNING AND HOURLY TEMP/DEWPT.
PREV DISC...
UPPER LOW BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CAPTURE
THE SURFACE LOW OVER CAPE COD LATER TODAY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. THIS WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
FLOW OF MOISTURE AND COOL AIR THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. THE
850-500 LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINS QUITE STRONG THROUGH
THE DAY TO KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...PER THE
DUAL POL DATA...THE FREEZING LEVELS CONTINUES TO DROP AND WE WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR/SEE SOME SLEET AND/OR GRAUPEL THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE OTHER ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS
AS H925-H850 WIND MAGNITUDES CLIMB TO AND ABOVE 50KTS. WHILE WE
WILL NOT COMPLETELY MIX TO THESE LAYERS...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST
FOR SOME OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO TRANSFER DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. APPARENT TEMPS /WIND CHILLS/ TODAY WILL AVERAGE
INTO THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY INTO
THE 40S. OUR NORMAL HIGH FOR TODAY IN ALBANY IS 72...GLENS FALLS
IS 70...AND 74 DEGREES IN POUGHKEEPSIE. IN FACT...WITH OUR CURRENT
FORECAST HIGH IN THE 40S FOR ALBANY...THIS WOULD SET A NEW LOW
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE /PREVIOUS RECORD IS 51 DEGREES IN 1967/.
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GULF OF MAINE. DEFORMATION AXIS REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
WITH THIS ZONE OF INFLUENCE WEAKENING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP POPS RATHER HIGH ALONG WITH A BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BUT NOT AS
GUSTY DUE TO LIMITED MIXING POTENTIAL. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BE A LITTLE COOLER AS WE FOLLOWED A BLENDED APPROACH FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S CWA-WIDE. THE
CHANCE FOR ANOTHER RECORD FOR ALBANY AS LOW MEAN TEMPERATURE FOR
THE DATE IS 44.5 SET IN 1925. DUE TO THE ELEVATED WIND
MAGNITUDES AND PRECIPITATION...THIS WOULD PRECLUDE ANY MENTION OF
FROST FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH LOWERING WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS...THE CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY TYPE MIXED PRECIPITATION
INCREASES FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW BEGINS TO FILL FURTHER AND BECOME
FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE REGION WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. SKY
COVERAGE MAY TAKE SOME ADDITIONAL TIME BUT THOUGHTS ARE WE SHOULD
SEE SOME PEAKS OF THE SUNSHINE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND JUST
BEFORE SUNSET. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER TIGHT WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRISK DAY ONCE AGAIN WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AROUND 30KTS AS PER THE BUFR PROFILES WE EFFECTIVELY MIX CLOSE TO
H850. GIVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE FOR NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS COULD EXPERIENCE
TEMPERATURES DIPPING AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH THE REMAINDER OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EXPERIENCING FROST CONDITIONS. AFTER
COLLABORATION...WE WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO AND MAKE FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS BEFORE ISSUING FREEZE WATCHES. AS LATE MAY SUNSHINE
RETURNS FOR MEMORIAL DAY...FORECAST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
TOWARD SEASONABLE VALUES /LOWER 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND WITH A RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA. WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
MINS FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THERE COULD BE SOME CONTINUED
FROST/FREEZE ISSUES FOR SOUTHERN GREENS AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE FOR TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR
A LIGHT S-SW WIND TO TAKE OVER AT LOW LEVELS. WARM ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN AT MID LEVELS...ESP BY LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL
START OFF SUNNY...SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY START TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION BY AFTN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN MONDAY...WITH MID TO
UPPER 70S IN MANY AREAS.
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BECOME STRONGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A SURFACE WARM FRONT
WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A SHORTWAVE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A CHC FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. MIN TEMPS
ON TUESDAY NIGHT WON/T BE AS COOL...WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
ON WED WILL BE MUCH WARMER...WITH 80S FOR MOST PLACES...AS 850 HPA
TEMPS SURGE TO 14 TO 16 DEGREES C. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
IS IN PLACE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED TIME FOR
SEVERE WX IN OUR AREA.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
80S EXPECTED AS THE REGION REMAINS DOMINATED BY THE STRONG RIDGE AT
500 HPA. WITH OUR AREA BEING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
RIDGE...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES PASSING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS THIS IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR THURS...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS DRY AND WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID
TO END THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
SATURDAY. STEADY RAIN IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE NORMAL TERMINALS OF
KGFL/KALB/KPSF...WITH MORE SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN FURTHER SOUTH
AROUND KPOU. WHILE THE STEADY RAIN MAY MOVE AWAY FROM KALB/KPSF OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IT LOOKS TO REDEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS AT ALL
SITES...BEFORE RETURNING TO A MORE SHOWERY COVERAGE FOR LATE IN THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY VFR/MVFR AT THE CURRENT TIME. IT
LOOKS LIKE FLYING CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR WITHIN THE STEADIER
RAINFALL THIS MORNING. WHILE IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT...AT THIS POINT...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WOULD
SUGGEST THAT FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY ONLY LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS. THE TERMINAL WITH THE BEST CHC OF LOWERING TO IFR /OR NEAR
IFR CONDITIONS/ WOULD BE KPSF.
THE FLOW AROUND THE STORM WILL MAKE FOR GUSTY N-NW WINDS...ESP FOR
THE AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESP FOR KALB.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NIGHT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
WED...VFR. MVFR PSBL WITH CHC PM SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE COASTAL LOW
REMAINS IN THE VICINITY KEEPING CONDITIONS UNSETTLED. THIS WILL
KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH DESPITE THE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WIND. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO MEMORIAL DAY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RADAR CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT BRIGHT BANDING WHICH IS RESULTING IN
HIGHER RADAR RETURNS BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT.
6-HR TOTALS WHERE 1/2 OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH AHPS RIVER POINTS
SHOWING EITHER WITHIN BANK RISES OR NEAR STEADY FLOWS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE TO NONE EXPECTED HYDRO ISSUES.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL
DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS TO SLOWLY RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
000
FXUS61 KBGM 250906
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
506 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A MODERATION
BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL READINGS ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR...BUT DRIER WEATHER IS FORESEEN
STARTING SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
430 AM UPDATE... DEFORMATION PCPN BAND PERSISTS EARLY THIS MRNG
ACRS OUR ERN ZNS...WITH A DEEPENING UPR-LVL LOW PARKED NEAR NYC
ATTM. ONE MORE SIG SHRT WV WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DROPPING SEWD ACRS THE UPR LKS RGN AS OF THIS WRITING...AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD WRAP INTO THE UPPER LOW LTR TDY. ONCE THAT
HAPPENS...THE UPR VORTEX IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW EWD
PUSH OFF THE NEW ENG COAST. UNTIL THAT TIME...LOOK FOR NUMEROUS
-SHRA THIS AM...TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SCTD IN NATURE AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE AFTN HRS...E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. BACK TO THE
W...LTL OR NO SHWR ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED...WITH BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
DUE TO MORE CLDS/PERSISTENT PCPN...THE CHILLIEST READINGS TDY WILL
BE ACRS ERN PTNS OF THE FA...WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN CERTAINLY NOT
GETTING OUT OF THE 40S ONCE AGN. FARTHER W...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO REACH WELL INTO THE 50S...AND PROBABLY NEAR 60...SPCLY
ACRS NORMALLY WARMER URBANIZED VLYS.
WINDS STILL LOOK GUSTY...WITH STEEP LOW-LVL LR`S AND A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT AT PLAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
445 AM UPDATE... WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS EVE AS THE LOW
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZE...SPCLY W OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR.
ALSO...WITH THE UPR LOW SLOWLY MOVING AWAY...GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM W TO E DURG THE OVERNIGHT PD. THIS MAY OPEN
THE DOOR FOR FROST CONDS ACRS THE TWIN TIERS. OF COURSE...THE PACE
THAT SKIES CLEAR OUT LTR TNT...AND THAT WINDS DIMINISH...WILL BE
KEY COMPONENTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RESIDENT CHILLY AMS...AND TIME
OF YEAR (MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS PLANTING TIME FOR MANY
LOCALS)...WE FELT IT PRUDENT TO HOIST FROST ADVSYS FOR LATE
TNT/EARLY SUN.
SUN THROUGH MON CONTS TO LOOK DRY...WITH SKIES BCMG MAINLY
CLEAR...AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE W...AND HGTS ALOFT RISE
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WRN ATLANTIC UPR LOW.
POTENTIALLY VERY COLD TEMPS LATE SUN NGT INTO EARLY MON WILL AGN
BE THE MAIN FCST HIGHLIGHT THIS PD. IF ANYTHING...SUN NGT STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE THE COLDEST READINGS OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST RADIATING CONDS BY THIS TIME. THUS...AGN
CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR...WE`VE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FA...SAVE THE LAKE PLAIN CNTYS. SOME UPR 20S ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE USUALLY COLDER MORE PROTECTED VLYS.
HOWEVER...BY MON AFTN...SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL BE WELL
UNDERWAY...WITH HIGHS BACK UP NEAR 70 DEGS BY THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY WELL ADVERTISED WARM UP EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK AS BROAD
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS HOWEVER...FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING STALLED SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA WITH DEVELOPING
SHWRS/POSSIBLE THUNDER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST
RIDGE AXIS BUILDING FROM OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE MAINTAINED CHC
THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD BEFORE
ADVERTISING DRYING CONDITIONS BY LATE WEEK. INITIAL LOOK AT
DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR A NORTHWEST FLOW SEVERE CONVECTION SETUP WITH OUR
REGION RESIDING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY TO OUR SOUTHWEST. TOO EARLY FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT TO GET TOO EXCITED BUT TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS
THE TIMING NEARS. WITH FCST 850-HPA TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM WELL
INTO THE UPPER TEENS...FCST HIGHS BY THU AND FRI WILL LIKELY WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY PASSES.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT AT ALL TAF SITES AS DRY AIR HAS
MOVED INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT TAF SITES TO MOVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY OVER KAVP AND KRME... AND EXPECT
SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF BY 14Z. THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL START
TO DISSIPATE FROM THE WEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MORE DRY
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR
SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ022>025-
044>046-055>057-062.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ009-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ022.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...
000
FXUS61 KOKX 250843
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
443 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SETTLES TO OUR SOUTH INTO TUESDAY. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY
LIFTS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT THEN STALLS
OUT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NE TODAY...WITH POPS DECREASING
FROM CATEGORICAL FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE DAY FOR OCCASIONAL TO
SCT -SHRA. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT TRANSITING THE AREA A LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING
SOME GRAUPEL. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REFLECT IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY NW WINDS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND SFC-850
LOW TO OUR NE - BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH. NOTE - IF
STRONGER WINDS FROM 950-850 HPA IN THE GFS ARE REALIZED (VICE
WINDS 5-10 KT LOWER IN THE NAM/ECMWF) - THEN COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED GUSTS TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO THE N AND W OF NYC.
FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FROM AROUND 50 ACROSS N INTERIOR
ZONES TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NYC METRO. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR STAYED IN THE 40S.
THESE HIGHS ARE SOME 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP OF CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NE WITH DECREASING POPS FROM
SW TO NE FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DID LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NE 1/3
OF THE CWA IN DEFERENCE TO SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY...BUT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE CUTOFF PULLS AWAY - ALLOWING FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
SLOWLY RELAX OVER THE REGION.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS
SHOULD BE TOO STRONG FOR FROST FORMATION ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR
ZONES. ON SUNDAY...USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...MAV/MET GUIDANCE BLEND...AND A MIX DOWN FROM 800
HPA...FOR HIGHS WITH READINGS FORECAST AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER...WITH DRY WEATHER.
FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES FORECAST 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...EXCEPT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN NYC. WINDS SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN BE TOO STRONG FOR FROST FORMATION ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES.
FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 800 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR NORMAL - WITH POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPING IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AS MUCH AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH
MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECE/WPC GUIDANCE FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...SO
FOLLOWED A BLEND.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
PASSING SHORTWAVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL ENABLE
A WARM FRONT TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...WITH THE FRONT STALLING
OUT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR W ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN CHANCE POPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
DO LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THERE
IS SOME QUESTION HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT CLEARS TO THE N.
DEPENDING ON EXACT PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE
MEAN/ECE/ECE ENSEMBLE MEAN/WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES START OUT
NEAR NORMAL...BUT RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES NEAR CAPE COD WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GULF OF ME TODAY.
EXPECT A STRONG NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING OFFSHORE
LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS RAMPING UP DURING THE DAY
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 35-39KT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 40-43KT POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A WIND
DIRECTION RIGHT AROUND 320 TRUE.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR TO START...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
VFR BY AROUND NOON. SOME TERMINALS MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR UP UNTIL THEN.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IN SHRA TODAY WITH COLD TEMPS
ALOFT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. NW GUSTS 25-30 KT.
.SUN...VFR. NW GUSTS AROUND 30 KT.
.MON...VFR.
.TUE-WED...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT
TUES NIGHT AND WEDS.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
NW FLOW STRENGTHENS TODAY. MIGHT NOT BE UNTIL AROUND NOON BEFORE
SOME OF THE WATERS REACHES GALE FORCE GUSTS...AND GUSTS OVER THE NY
HARBOR AND LONG ISLAND BAYS COULD SUBSIDE UNDER 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...THE GALE WARNING MIGHT NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO PART OF SUNDAY MORNING OVER SOME OF THE WATERS AS MIXING
DEEPENS AGAIN. WINDS THEN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH AT LEAST SCA CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE DAY.
ALL WATERS THEN FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUES FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UNDER 15
KT. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH THIS MORNING COULD PRODUCE POCKETS OF MINOR FLOODING OF
POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN LOCATIONS.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-
350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
000
FXUS61 KBTV 250837
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
437 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. FURTHERMORE...SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS OF THE ADIRONDACK AND
GREEN MOUNTAINS. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON
LOCAL WATERWAYS...WITH SOME RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL FCST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED
QPF AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS ACRS OUR CWA. STILL ANTICIPATING STORM
TOTAL PREICP OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCH AMOUNTS ACRS
THE WESTERN SLOPES...PARTS OF THE CPV...AND MTNS OF NORTH-CENTRAL
VT BY SUNDAY AFTN. IN ADDITION...STILL EXPECTING SOME ACCUMULATING
HEAVY WET SNOW ABOVE 2000 FEET...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND GREEN MTNS.
FCST CHALLENGE IS IMPACTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ON AREA
WATERWAYS...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF SNOW ACRS HIGHER TRRN.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE NEGATIVELY TILTED 7/5H CIRCULATION
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE ACRS
OUR FA ASSOCIATED WITH RRQ OF 25H JET OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS
CLOSED SYSTEM WL ADVECT PLENTY OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO OUR
CWA THRU TONIGHT...WITH FAVORABLE BACKSIDE DEFORMATION DEVELOPING BY
THIS EVENING. OVERALL...MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM
BECMG VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE...AND THE ASSOCIATED
QPF ACRS OUR CWA. GFS/NAM AND ECMWF ALL SHOW IMPRESSIVE 7H FGEN
FORCING...STRONG 850 TO 500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND DEEP 850
TO 500MB UVVS ACRS OUR CWA THRU 06Z SUNDAY. THIS WL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH WL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY THRU THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...SYSTEM WL TRANSITION FROM LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO
MESOSCALE FEATURES DRIVE BY THE TRRN. GFS/NAM SHOWS VERY FAVORABLE
850 TO 700MB RH AND LLVL WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ENHANCED
PRECIP ACRS THE CPV...WESTERN SLOPES...AND NORTH/CENTRAL MTNS OF VT.
THIS FAVORABLE MOISTURE/LIFT IS PRESENT THRU 18Z SUNDAY...BEFORE
FINALLY WEAKENING BY EVENING. WL CONT TO MENTION POPS NEAR 100% FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY/CAT POPS ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MORNING. GIVEN...THE DEEP CLOSED CIRCULATION FEEL PRECIP/CLOUDS
WL LINGER THRU MIDDAY SUNDAY...BUT WL TAPER OFF BY AFTN. ALSO...FEEL
QPF/POPS WL BE MUCH LESS ACRS THE SLV...AS MODELS SHOW LIMITED
LIFT/RH. THINKING MOSTLY LOW LIKELY WESTERN DACKS TO CHC POPS SLV.
THIS AREA WL ALSO SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS ON SAT AND SUNDAY...HIGHS IN
THE 50S.
STILL ANTICIPATING STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES WITH
LOCALIZED 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...ACRS THE CPV...WESTERN SLOPES...AND
MTNS OF NORTHERN VT. THINKING CPV CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLW WL
HELP TO ENHANCE QPF AMOUNTS ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND CPV. MUCH
LESS QPF IS ANTICIPATED ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS...GENERALLY
<0.25". ALSO...THINKING AMOUNTS ACRS THE CT RIVER VALLEY WL BE
CLOSER TO 1.0". THIS WL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS...WITH SOME MAIN STEM FLOODING POSSIBLE. SEE HDYRO SECTION
BLW FOR MORE INFO.
NOW FOR THE HARDEST PART OF THE FCST...TRYING TO DETERMINE SNOW
LEVELS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS. NAM/GFS AND LOCAL WRF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THERMAL PROFILES BECMG COLD ENOUGH BY 00Z THIS EVENING FOR SNOW
ABOVE 2000 FT. STILL HAVING A HARD TIME DETERMINING WHERE THE COLD
AIR IS COMING FROM...AS OUR LLVL CAA IS LIMITED. THINKING DYNAMIC
COOLING AND HEAVIER PRECIP WL MIX COLDER AIR ALOFT TWD THE
SFC...AS COLD CORE LOW MOVES CLOSER. THIS IS EXTREMELY TRICKY TO
DETERMINE...ESPECIALLY IN LATE MAY...WITH A VERY HIGH SUN ANGLE.
HAVE NOTED 28F AT WHITEFACE AND 32 ATOP MOUNT MANSFIELD....WITH
WHITEFACE WEB CAM ALREADY SHOWING THE GROUND WHITE...BEFORE SUNSET
ON FRIDAY EVENING. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW A RIBBON OF 85H TEMPS BTWN
-1C AND -3C...AND 925MB TEMPS NEAR 0C DEVELOPING ACRS OUR CWA
TODAY. THINKING SNOW LEVELS WL START NEAR SUMMIT LEVEL (3500 TO
4000 FEET) TODAY...BUT DROP TO NEAR 2000 FT BY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT A SHARP INCREASE IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACRS THE MTNS AS
YOU INCREASE YOUR ELEVATION ABOVE 2500 FT. THINKING BTWN 1 AND 3 INCHES
WL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING BTWN 2000 AND 2500 FEET...WITH
OVER 6 INCHES LIKELY AT THE SUMMITS FROM MT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK. I
REALIZE WE TECHNICALLY DON`T FCST FOR THE SUMMITS...BUT GIVEN THE
HOLIDAY WKND AND POTENTIAL FOR HIKERS/CAMPERS IN THE MTNS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WL ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL. ON A SIDE NOTE...IF WE CAN CLR SKIES LATE SUNDAY
AFTN...THE SNOW COVERED MTN SUMMITS SHOULD MAKE FOR SOME GREAT
PICTURES.
THE COMBINATION OF PRECIP/CLOUDS AND PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C...WL
SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE M/U30S MTNS TO L/M 40S CPV/CT RIVER
VALLEY. WARMEST TEMPS WL BE ACRS THE SLV...READINGS WL WARM INTO THE
50S. TEMPS WL ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...AS WINDS/PRECIP AND
CLOUDS PREVAIL...THINKING L/M 30S MTNS TO U30S TO L40S. ON
SUNDAY...TEMPS WL BECM TRICKY...ESPECIALLY IF WE BREAK OUT INTO SOME
SUN LATE IN THE AFTN. EXPECT LATE DAY HIGHS FOR THE CPV...WITH
VALUES REACHING THE L/M 50S...WITH MAINLY 40S IN THE MTNS AND L60S
IN THE SLV. MOST OF THE MARATHON WL EXPERIENCE LIGHT RAIN WITH COOL
TEMPS AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE ON SUNDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE BY SUNDAY AFTN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR 50F...AND LIGHTER WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL SLOWLY LIFT NE INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS
WL RESULT IN A SLOW CLRING TREND WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL LVLS BY MONDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FROST ACRS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE DACKS AND PARTS OF
VT. THIS MAYBE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE VERY SATURATED LLVLS AND
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IF SKIES CLR AND WINDS DECREASE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT SATURDAY...PATTERN CHANGE TAKES PLACE IN THE EXTENDED
AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXISTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. WE WILL START TO SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKE PLACE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WHEN A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AND WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN. FIRST THE WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE
A FOCUS WEDNESDAY FOR CONVECTION AS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THUS HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LINGERING THREAT ON THURSDAY AS
FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE BORDER. ONCE IT
DOES...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND BRINGS IN NOTICEABLY
WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LACK OF FORCING
SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE THREAT IS MINIMAL AND HAVE THUS KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR AND
IFR CATEGORIES AT MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO CLOUDS...FOG...AND RAIN.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE KMSS WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST AS THEY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE COAST THAT IS PRODUCING ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WATCH FOR WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER
14Z FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND AS SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SUNDAY. A SLOW CLEARING TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 440 AM SATURDAY...A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...STORM TOTAL PREICP VALUES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES...PARTS OF THE
CPV...AND MTNS OF NORTH-CENTRAL VT BY SUNDAY AFTN. LOCALLY RUN
SSHP MODEL HYDROGRAPHS SUGGEST THESE TOTALS WILL LIKELY BRING
NUMEROUS SMALL STREAMS TO BANKFULL...AND SEVERAL MAINSTEM RIVERS
INTO FLOOD BY THIS AFTN INTO SUNDAY. THUS A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE
FOR THIS POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...THE RIVERS OF MOST CONCERN
WOULD BE THE MISSISQUOI...LAMOILLE...OTTER...AND PASSUMPSIC IN
VERMONT...AND THE AUSABLE RIVER IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. GIVEN THE
CURRENT TRENDS IN RAINFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS...MOST RIVER CRESTS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 440 PM SATURDAY...LOOKING TO BE A PRETTY MISERABLE START TO THE
PRIME BOATING SEASON ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A STORM MORE TYPICAL OF
WINTER WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE OPEN LAKE. FOR THAT REASON, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
POSTED AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE WINDS FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS.
THESE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS, WITH
WAVES ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE ULTIMATELY BUILDING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6
FEET. A STEADY RAIN AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S ON TODAY WILL
ADD TO THE MISERY.
THE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR BOATING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH THE UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TODAY...SOME
RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE APPROACHED OR BROKEN. THEY ARE LISTED
BELOW.
BURLINGTON: 51F (1921,1925)
MONTPELIER: 48F (1967)
MASSENA: 55F (1969,1979)
ST JOHNSBURY: 52F (1931,1925)
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-031-034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS
HYDROLOGY...TABER
MARINE...WFO BTV
CLIMATE...WFO BTV
000
FXUS61 KALY 250818
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
418 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL STORM WILL PROMOTE UNSEASONABLY COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THIS BEGINNING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF WARMER
WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LOW BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CAPTURE
THE SURFACE LOW OVER CAPE COD LATER TODAY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. THIS WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
FLOW OF MOISTURE AND COOL AIR THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. THE
850-500 LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINS QUITE STRONG THROUGH
THE DAY TO KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...PER THE
DUAL POL DATA...THE FREEZING LEVELS CONTINUES TO DROP AND WE WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR/SEE SOME SLEET AND/OR GRAUPEL THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE OTHER ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS
AS H925-H850 WIND MAGNITUDES CLIMB TO AND ABOVE 50KTS. WHILE WE
WILL NOT COMPLETELY MIX TO THESE LAYERS...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST
FOR SOME OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO TRANSFER DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. APPARENT TEMPS /WIND CHILLS/ TODAY WILL AVERAGE
INTO THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY INTO
THE 40S. OUR NORMAL HIGH FOR TODAY IN ALBANY IS 72...GLENS FALLS
IS 70...AND 74 DEGREES IN POUGHKEEPSIE. IN FACT...WITH OUR CURRENT
FORECAST HIGH IN THE 40S FOR ALBANY...THIS WOULD SET A NEW LOW
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE /PREVIOUS RECORD IS 51 DEGREES IN 1967/.
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GULF OF MAINE. DEFORMATION AXIS REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
WITH THIS ZONE OF INFLUENCE WEAKENING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP POPS RATHER HIGH ALONG WITH A BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BUT NOT AS
GUSTY DUE TO LIMITED MIXING POTENTIAL. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BE A LITTLE COOLER AS WE FOLLOWED A BLENDED APPROACH FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S CWA-WIDE. THE
CHANCE FOR ANOTHER RECORD FOR ALBANY AS LOW MEAN TEMPERATURE FOR
THE DATE IS 44.5 SET IN 1925. DUE TO THE ELEVATED WIND
MAGNITUDES AND PRECIPITATION...THIS WOULD PRECLUDE ANY MENTION OF
FROST FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH LOWERING WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS...THE CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY TYPE MIXED PRECIPITATION
INCREASES FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW BEGINS TO FILL FURTHER AND BECOME
FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE REGION WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. SKY
COVERAGE MAY TAKE SOME ADDITIONAL TIME BUT THOUGHTS ARE WE SHOULD
SEE SOME PEAKS OF THE SUNSHINE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND JUST
BEFORE SUNSET. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER TIGHT WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRISK DAY ONCE AGAIN WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AROUND 30KTS AS PER THE BUFR PROFILES WE EFFECTIVELY MIX CLOSE TO
H850. GIVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE FOR NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS COULD EXPERIENCE
TEMPERATURES DIPPING AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH THE REMAINDER OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EXPERIENCING FROST CONDITIONS. AFTER
COLLABORATION...WE WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO AND MAKE FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS BEFORE ISSUING FREEZE WATCHES. AS LATE MAY SUNSHINE
RETURNS FOR MEMORIAL DAY...FORECAST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
TOWARD SEASONABLE VALUES /LOWER 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND WITH A RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA. WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
MINS FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THERE COULD BE SOME CONTINUED
FROST/FREEZE ISSUES FOR SOUTHERN GREENS AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE FOR TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR
A LIGHT S-SW WIND TO TAKE OVER AT LOW LEVELS. WARM ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN AT MID LEVELS...ESP BY LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL
START OFF SUNNY...SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY START TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION BY AFTN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN MONDAY...WITH MID TO
UPPER 70S IN MANY AREAS.
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BECOME STRONGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A SURFACE WARM FRONT
WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A SHORTWAVE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A CHC FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. MIN TEMPS
ON TUESDAY NIGHT WON/T BE AS COOL...WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
ON WED WILL BE MUCH WARMER...WITH 80S FOR MOST PLACES...AS 850 HPA
TEMPS SURGE TO 14 TO 16 DEGREES C. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
IS IN PLACE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED TIME FOR
SEVERE WX IN OUR AREA.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
80S EXPECTED AS THE REGION REMAINS DOMINATED BY THE STRONG RIDGE AT
500 HPA. WITH OUR AREA BEING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
RIDGE...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES PASSING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS THIS IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR THURS...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS DRY AND WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID
TO END THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
SATURDAY. STEADY RAIN IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE NORMAL TERMINALS OF
KGFL/KALB/KPSF...WITH MORE SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN FURTHER SOUTH
AROUND KPOU. WHILE THE STEADY RAIN MAY MOVE AWAY FROM KALB/KPSF OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IT LOOKS TO REDEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS AT ALL
SITES...BEFORE RETURNING TO A MORE SHOWERY COVERAGE FOR LATE IN THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY VFR/MVFR AT THE CURRENT TIME. IT
LOOKS LIKE FLYING CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR WITHIN THE STEADIER
RAINFALL THIS MORNING. WHILE IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT...AT THIS POINT...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WOULD
SUGGEST THAT FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY ONLY LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS. THE TERMINAL WITH THE BEST CHC OF LOWERING TO IFR /OR NEAR
IFR CONDITIONS/ WOULD BE KPSF.
THE FLOW AROUND THE STORM WILL MAKE FOR GUSTY N-NW WINDS...ESP FOR
THE AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESP FOR KALB.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NIGHT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
WED...VFR. MVFR PSBL WITH CHC PM SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE COASTAL LOW
REMAINS IN THE VICINITY KEEPING CONDITIONS UNSETTLED. THIS WILL
KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH DESPITE THE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WIND. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO MEMORIAL DAY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RADAR CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT BRIGHT BANDING WHICH IS RESULTING IN
HIGHER RADAR RETURNS BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT.
6-HR TOTALS WHERE 1/2 OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH AHPS RIVER POINTS
SHOWING EITHER WITHIN BANK RISES OR NEAR STEADY FLOWS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE TO NONE EXPECTED HYDRO ISSUES.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL
DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS TO SLOWLY RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
000
FXUS61 KOKX 250800
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
400 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SETTLES TO OUR SOUTH INTO TUESDAY. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY
LIFTS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT THEN STALLS
OUT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NE TODAY...WITH POPS DECREASING
FROM CATEGORICAL FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE DAY FOR OCCASIONAL TO
SCT -SHRA. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT TRANSITING THE AREA A LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING
SOME GRAUPEL. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REFLECT IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY NW WINDS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND SFC-850
LOW TO OUR NE - BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH. NOTE - IF
STRONGER WINDS FROM 950-850 HPA IN THE GFS ARE REALIZED (VICE
WINDS 5-10 KT LOWER IN THE NAM/ECMWF) - THEN COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED GUSTS TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO THE N AND W OF NYC.
FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FROM AROUND 50 ACROSS N INTERIOR
ZONES TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NYC METRO. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR STAYED IN THE 40S.
THESE HIGHS ARE SOME 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP OF CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NE WITH DECREASING POPS FROM
SW TO NE FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DID LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NE 1/3
OF THE CWA IN DEFERENCE TO SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY...BUT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE CUTOFF PULLS AWAY - ALLOWING FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
SLOWLY RELAX OVER THE REGION.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS
SHOULD BE TOO STRONG FOR FROST FORMATION ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR
ZONES. ON SUNDAY...USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...MAV/MET GUIDANCE BLEND...AND A MIX DOWN FROM 800
HPA...FOR HIGHS WITH READINGS FORECAST AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER...WITH DRY WEATHER.
FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES FORECAST 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...EXCEPT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN NYC. WINDS SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN BE TOO STRONG FOR FROST FORMATION ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES.
FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 800 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR NORMAL - WITH POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPING IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AS MUCH AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH
MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECE/WPC GUIDANCE FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH
READINGS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...SO
FOLLOWED A BLEND.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
PASSING SHORTWAVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL ENABLE
A WARM FRONT TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...WITH THE FRONT STALLING
OUT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR W ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN CHANCE POPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
DO LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THERE
IS SOME QUESTION HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT CLEARS TO THE N.
DEPENDING ON EXACT PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE
MEAN/ECE/ECE ENSEMBLE MEAN/WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES START OUT
NEAR NORMAL...BUT RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES NEAR CAPE COD WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GULF OF ME TONIGHT AND
SAT.
EXPECT A STRONG NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING OFFSHORE
LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS RAMPING UP DURING THE DAY ON
SAT WITH GUSTS 35-40KT. IN THE AFT. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A
WIND DIRECTION RIGHT AROUND 320 TRUE.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR OVERNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
VFR BY AROUND NOON SAT. NYC AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS MAY
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR TONIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IN SHRA SAT WITH COLD TEMPS
ALOFT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE SHOWERS. NW GUSTS AROUND
35 KT.
.SUN...VFR. NW GUSTS 30-35KT.
.MON...VFR.
.TUE-WED...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
NW FLOW STRENGTHENS TODAY. MIGHT NOT BE UNTIL AROUND NOON BEFORE
SOME OF THE WATERS REACHES GALE FORCE GUSTS...AND GUSTS OVER THE NY
HARBOR AND LONG ISLAND BAYS COULD SUBSIDE UNDER 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...THE GALE WARNING MIGHT NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO PART OF SUNDAY MORNING OVER SOME OF THE WATERS AS MIXING
DEEPENS AGAIN. WINDS THEN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH AT LEAST SCA CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE DAY.
ALL WATERS THEN FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUES FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UNDER 15
KT. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH THIS MORNING COULD PRODUCE POCKETS OF MINOR FLOODING OF
POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN LOCATIONS.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-
350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
000
FXUS61 KBUF 250747
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
347 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
MAINLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 330 AM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CLOSING OFF IN
THE UPPER LEVELS NEAR LONG ISLAND. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL BECOME
VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARD CAPE COD THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES.
FOR THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN NEW YORK...THIS PATTERN WILL BRING FAIR
BUT COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF -2C APPEAR TO BE
COOL ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A MODEST AMOUNT OF LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS...BASED ON LINGERING CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH
CAN BE SEEN ON IR SATELLITE LOOPS. THE EASTWARD TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL ALLOW PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST...WITH LINGERING CLOUD LIKELY TO GIVEWAY TO SUNNY SKIES WEST OF
ROCHESTER.
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS JUST
CLIPPING THE EASTERN HALF OF LEWIS COUNTY...AND THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. DISTURBANCES WILL
PERIODICALLY PIVOT AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...WHICH MAY BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES A BIT WESTWARD INTO OSWEGO/JEFFERSON
COUNTIES TODAY. PREFER THE RGEM GUIDANCE OVER THE TOO OPTIMISTIC NAM
AND TOO PESSIMISTIC GFS/EURO. FOLLOWING THIS...EXPECT CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS A SHOWERS TO LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...WITH A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TODAY...WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60...EVEN IN AREAS OF FULL SUN. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. MODEST NW WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN A BIT COOLER.
WHILE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...A FEW
SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL STILL LIKELY DROP TO FREEZING SO HAVE KEPT
THE FREEZE WARNING UP UNTIL 700 AM. EXPECT TONIGHT WILL BE
SIMILAR...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER 850MB
TEMPERATURES THE RESULT WILL LIKELY BE QUITE SIMILAR. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL BE CHILLY...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP LOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING
WILL LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON MONDAY. THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS THAT ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN LEWIS COUNTY
SUNDAY...BUT THE BULK OF ANY PCPN SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO THE EAST.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND THE PERSISTENT LOW.
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO THE LAKES WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S...BUT INLAND
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE READINGS COOLING INTO THE 30S...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE AREAS OF FROST AND/OR A FREEZE ARE
POSSIBLE.
ON MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CREST OVER NEW YORK STATE AND BRING
MORE SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CHARACTERIZE THIS
PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OUT WEST.
AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NAM STILL LIFTS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH FASTER
AND BRINGS SHOWERS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE
THE GFS AND ECMWF HOLD THE PCPN OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND FOLLOW
THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY
...HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD...AND TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL
LIKELY WARM BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION. THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY CAP AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...AND THUS WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY THAT A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY...AS
DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CLOSE OFF IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH OUR REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.
EXPECT A GENERAL CLEARING TREND THROUGH 12Z AT MOST TAF SITES...WITH
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS VFR IN THE 5-6K FT RANGE. AFTER THIS EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT AT BUF/IAG/ROC/JHW. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER AT ART WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE LOW.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR CAPE COD WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT NW FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT...THIS WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS MARGINAL TO SCA FOR MOST
OF THE WATERS...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE WATER TONIGHT HAS HELPED AID
MIXING...AND BECAUSE OF THIS THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED A BIT ON LAKE ERIE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY INCREASE MODESTLY
TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE MORE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON EASTERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. AFTER THIS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH DIMINISHING WINDS ON SUNDAY ONWARD.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ019>021.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ019>021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LOZ043>045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LOZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...TJP
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/TJP
000
FXUS61 KBGM 250551
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
151 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY...NORTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL BE OVER OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL CAUSE COLD NIGHTS AND BREEZY DAYS. ALSO...A LOW
MOVING THOUGH NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
750 PM UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW PLAN, SO MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. MINS SHOULD
RANGE FROM 31 TO 36 DEGREES. HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY UP AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH, MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR FROST TO FORM.
4 PM UPDATE...
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR LOW CONTS TO PULL SLOWLY
EAST. BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN IS MIXED WITH SLEET AND SNOW AT
TIMES...MAKING FOR AN ALL TIME RECORD FOR LATEST SNOW RECORDED AT
BGM. SHRT TERM MODELS SHOW CONTD EWRD PROGRESS THRU THE NGT BRING
AND END TO THE PCPN FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST. PRBLM ARISES AS ENUF
DRY AIR GETS IN THAT SOME CLRG SEEMS LIKELY...ESP OVER THE WRN
ZONES...BRINGING THE PSBLTY OF FROST. WRKG AGAINST THE FROST WILL
BE THE WIND...WHICH IS FCSTD TO REMAIN AT OR ABV 10 KTS AT THE SFC
THRU THE NGT. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CAUTION AND POST AN ADVISORY
FOR STEUBEN CNTY...WHERE GRIDDED DATA SUGGEST SOME OF THE DEEPER
VLYS COULD GO LGT AND TEMPS APRCH 32F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS SLOWLY COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW MVMT OF THE UPR
LOW...IN FACT BACKING IT A BIT BRINGING PCPN BACK TO THE WEST ON
SAT. NAM IS STILL THE MOST OPTIMISTIC WITH THE GFS NOW SIDING WITH
THE ECMWF WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...BIT OF A DFCLT
FCST WITH A SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE CLDS WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
LRG DFRNC FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA...FROM SUN TO
COLD RAIN. OTR CNCRN IS THE CONTD THREAT OF FROST AND WHICH AREA
MAY BE AFFECTED. AS WITH TNGT...PSN OF THE LOW WILL HELP KEEP
WINDS UP IN MOST CLRD AREAS LIMITING THE CHANCE FOR FROST. XCPTN
MAY BE SUN NGT WHEN THE GRAD FINALLY RELAXS AS THE UPR LOW KICKS
EAST. SO...BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FROST MAY ACTUALLY BE
MEMORIAL DAY.
MODEL GUID WAS IN RSNBL AGREE EMT THRU THE PD LDG A HIER THAN NRML
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPS FCST. HWVR...STILL REMAIN TRICKY WITH A 10
TO 15 DEGREE HI TEMP DFRNC EASILY PSBL ACROSS THE AREA BOTH SAT
AND SUN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY WELL ADVERTISED WARM UP EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK AS BROAD
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS HOWEVER...FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING STALLED SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA WITH DEVELOPING
SHWRS/POSSIBLE THUNDER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST
RIDGE AXIS BUILDING FROM OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE MAINTAINED CHC
THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD BEFORE
ADVERTISING DRYING CONDITIONS BY LATE WEEK. INITIAL LOOK AT
DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR A NORTHWEST FLOW SEVERE CONVECTION SETUP WITH OUR
REGION RESIDING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY TO OUR SOUTHWEST. TOO EARLY FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT TO GET TOO EXCITED BUT TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS
THE TIMING NEARS. WITH FCST 850-HPA TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM WELL
INTO THE UPPER TEENS...FCST HIGHS BY THU AND FRI WILL LIKELY WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY PASSES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT AT ALL TAF SITES AS DRY AIR HAS
MOVED INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT TAF SITES TO MOVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRELTY OVER KAVP AND KRME... AND EXPECT
SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF BY 14Z. THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL START
TO DISSIPATE FROM THE WEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MORE DRY
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR
SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ022.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...
000
FXUS61 KALY 250538
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL PROMOTE COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
A RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...RAIN CONTINUES TO IMPACT MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION. NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO
REINSTATE CHILLY TEMPERATURES DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
LOW TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CATSKILLS WHERE OBSERVATIONS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WHERE
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 30S AND EVEN SOME VALUES IN THE MID 30S.
HOWEVER...AS THE CAA BECOMES LESS DOMINANT THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING...WE DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH
FURTHER. PER THE DUAL POL DATA...COULD BE SOME WINTRY MIXTURE AT
AND ABOVE 1500 FEET.
FAVORABLE QG DYNAMICS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW OBTAINS A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT WITH HEIGHT. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HELPING TO
TRANSPORT ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
VIA A COLD CONVEYOR BELT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYNOPTIC
FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF AN
INCH...WITH RAINFALL RATES AGAIN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH PER
HOUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT HANDLING
THE PROGRESSION/EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW/COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HAVE LARGELY TAKEN A BLENDED
APPROACH DURING THIS TIME FRAME...LEANING TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MAINTAINS A
NEGATIVE TILT SATURDAY...COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OFF
THE MASSACHUSETTS COAST AIDED BY A WEAK PV LOBE AND FAVORABLE QG
DYNAMICS. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ACT IN TANDEM TO ENHANCE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD CONVEYOR BELT. THIS
CONVEYOR BELT WILL HELP THROW BACK ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND PROMOTE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING VERTICALLY-STACKED WITH THE COASTAL LOW. THESE
FEATURES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FOR SUNDAY...WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE FROM HALF AN INCH IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TO TWO INCHES ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT
HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MEMORIAL DAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE NOVEMBER AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS WILL RETURN
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR MEMORIAL DAY GENERALLY IN LOW 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
LOW 30S TO LOW 40S.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE WEEKEND...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5-10 MPH FOR MONDAY.
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN PORTIONS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FROST ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND WITH A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE START...AND EVENTUALLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. STILL COOL MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THURSDAY AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. FAIR AND VERY WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES
HOLD.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW OR MID 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT 50 TO 60.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
SATURDAY. STEADY RAIN IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE NORMAL TERMINALS OF
KGFL/KALB/KPSF...WITH MORE SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN FURTHER SOUTH
AROUND KPOU. WHILE THE STEADY RAIN MAY MOVE AWAY FROM KALB/KPSF OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IT LOOKS TO REDEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS AT ALL
SITES...BEFORE RETURNING TO A MORE SHOWERY COVERAGE FOR LATE IN THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY VFR/MVFR AT THE CURRENT TIME. IT
LOOKS LIKE FLYING CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR WITHIN THE STEADIER
RAINFALL THIS MORNING. WHILE IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT...AT THIS POINT...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WOULD
SUGGEST THAT FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY ONLY LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS. THE TERMINAL WITH THE BEST CHC OF LOWERING TO IFR /OR NEAR
IFR CONDITIONS/ WOULD BE KPSF.
THE FLOW AROUND THE STORM WILL MAKE FOR GUSTY N-NW WINDS...ESP FOR
THE AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESP FOR KALB.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NIGHT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
WED...VFR. MVFR PSBL WITH CHC PM SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE AN
ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GENERALLY
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5-10 MPH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RH LEVELS DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL BE ABOVE 30
PERCENT...WITH RH LEVELS DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 60-80 PERCENT AND NORMAL OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES BETWEEN 80-100
PERCENT. RH LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 35-55 PERCENT
RANGE WITH NORMAL OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STRATIFORM RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING THAT WILL BRING A HALF INCH TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS NORTH AND EAST.
ALTHOUGH THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS FROM
RECENT HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...RAINFALL RATES OF ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR
WILL ALLOW LOCAL WATERSHEDS ENOUGH TIME TO RECOVER WITH ONLY MODEST
WITHIN BANK RISES.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...BGM/IRL/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
000
FXUS61 KOKX 250538
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
138 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ON A COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY...THEN
WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES EARLY IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH BY MID WEEK...MOVING BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH...THEN
DROPPING BACK TO THE SOUTH BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST OF OCCASIONAL SHRA OVERNIGHT ON TRACK BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS. DID LOWER FORECAST LOWS A TAD BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATION TRENDS - WITH NOW LOWER-MID 40S EXPECTED.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING FARTHER EAST OF THE REGION. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS INCREASE AND KEEP MORE MIXING CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY WHILE DEEPENING WITH A DIP IN THE JET STREAM MOVING
ACROSS OUR REGION. A MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY IS IN STORE
ALONG WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN WITH THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY
AND COLD POOL ALOFT.
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS STARTS TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF OF MAINE. LOW
LEVEL JET OF AROUND 40-50 KT DEVELOPS NEAR 925 MB AND WITH
EXPECTATION OF GOOD MIXING THE MAX GUST POTENTIAL COULD REACH
40-45 KT. THIS IS MOST PRONOUNCED WITH THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WITH NAM BUFKIT KEEPING IT MORE IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. INCREASED
WIND GUSTS A GOOD 10 KT ABOVE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND IS A
FEW KTS BELOW CRITERIA BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME SITES COULD
SEE GUSTS IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE SATURDAY...PROBABLY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
ALSO OF NOTE IS THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOWN BY
MUCAPE OF ALMOST 100 J/KG. THEREFORE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND WITH THE MUCH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT...HENCE
SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
A MAV/MET/NAM12 BLEND USED FOR HIGHS BUT ADJUSTED DOWNWARD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 IN URBAN NORTHEAST NEW
JERSEY.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...ADVECTIONS DECREASE IN EFFICIENCY WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW STACKING AND SURFACE LOW IN GULF OF MAINE HALTING IN
FURTHER DEEPENING...LOSING STRUCTURE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO MATERIALIZE WITH POPS GRADUALLY
LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. COLDER NIGHT THAN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MAV/MET BLEND USED ONCE AGAIN. LOWS FORECAST INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
ON SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER CLOSED
LOW OPENS...EVENTUALLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS...WITH IT/S AXIS REMAINING TO THE WEST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK.
AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. A WARM
FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST.
BY MID WEEK...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON HANDLING OF SFC FEATURES WITH
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES NOTED ALOFT. WILL FOLLOW WPC WITH THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME...WHICH LEANS TOWARD ECMWF. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COULD RIDE ALONG THE FRONT...IN THE NW
TO SE UPPER FLOW AS THE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...NOT TOO
SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE...BUT WILL
NEED TO INTRODUCE POPS LATE TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
WEAK LOW ON THE FRONT MOVES EAST WED AS THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE
NORTH. VORTICITY ADVECTION RIDES ALONG THE NW/SE UPPER FLOW...WITH
POTENTIAL HIGHER COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT MOVES EAST BY
FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. AS
SUCH...AT LEAST MINIMAL POPS WARRANTED WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE AT BEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPS STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AS COLD POOL SLOWLY LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS OF 50S AT NIGHT
AND 70S DURING THE DAY WILL SLOWLY WARM UP BY LATE WEEK AS RIDGE
AXIS MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS. TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...OR AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER/MID 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
FACING SHORES LOOKS REASONABLE PER WPC/EC MOS LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES NEAR CAPE COD WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GULF OF ME TONIGHT AND
SAT.
EXPECT A STRONG NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING OFFSHORE
LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS RAMPING UP DURING THE DAY ON
SAT WITH GUSTS 35-40KT. IN THE AFT. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A
WIND DIRECTION RIGHT AROUND 320 TRUE.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR OVERNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
VFR BY AROUND NOON SAT. NYC AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS MAY
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR TONIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IN SHRA SAT WITH COLD TEMPS
ALOFT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE SHOWERS. NW GUSTS AROUND
35 KT.
.SUN...VFR. NW GUSTS 30-35KT.
.MON...VFR.
.TUE-WED...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND
GALES ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW DEEPENING IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. THE WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THAT LOW
WEAKENS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE FOR
THE SHORT TERM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. GUSTY NW FLOW BACKS IN TIME TO THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST AS SPEEDS DIMINISH. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
TUE AND WED WITH SOUTH TO EAST WINDS PREVAILING THIS TIME FRAME.
ROUGH OCEAN SEAS PER WAVE WATCH III EARLY SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE AS THE
STORM DEPARTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NO FLOODING
PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/PW
000
FXUS61 KBUF 250533
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
133 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
MAINLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE COASTAL
LOW/S PRECIPITATION SHIELD LINGERING NEAR THE LEWIS COUNTY
BORDER...WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING
BACK TO THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. WITH THE
POSITION OF THE COASTAL LOW CHANGING LITTLE OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP
A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN PLACE ACROSS LEWIS COUNTY...ALONG WITH
CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
FURTHER TO THE WEST...SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY CLEARING...WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF
-2C AND LAKE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...SUSPECT
A MODEST CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE MOISTURE IS LIKELY HELPING CLOUDS
TO LINGER SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER LOW.
A PERSISTENT FLOW OF DRIER AIR UPSTREAM...AND THE EASTWARD TRACK
OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY DRY THINGS OUT...WITH A
GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND CHILLY AIRMASS THAT IS IN PLACE...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER THAT ONLY HAVE A SHORT WAYS
TO GO BEFORE REACHING THE FREEZING MARK...AND WHERE THE CURRENT
FREEZE WARNING STILL LOOKS PLAUSIBLE. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE
NORTH...SOME SPOTS CLOUD SEE TEMPS AS LOW AS THE MID 30S...HOWEVER
FEEL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT AND/OR LINGERING CLOUD
COVER TO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A FROST THREAT.
SATURDAY...MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER LOW. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BACK IN FROM THE
EAST AND MAY IMPACT AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. BULK OF THE AREA
WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WITH COLD AIR MASS CENTERED OVER THE
AREA WE WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...ALTHOUGH
COOL WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT OVER TODAYS READINGS IN THE 30S AND
40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SITTING OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WITH A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION AROUND THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LARGELY BE CONFINED TO AREAS JUST TO OUR EAST...THOUGH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY BRUSH BY OUR NORTH COUNTRY. BY SUNDAY MORNING COLD AIR
UNDER THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BACK SLIGHTLY WESTWARD SUCH
THAT -2C AIR AT 850 HPA WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN FOOT HILLS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SNOW FLURRIES
MIXED IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
AWAY FROM THE NORTH COUNTRY MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE FOUND AND
COLD WITH A NORTHWEST WIND. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND THE CLOSED LOW
OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME SATURDAY NIGHT AS FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
CONCERN AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND THAT THE LIGHT WINDS
WILL LIMIT THE FROST FORMATION. CLOSER TO THE LAKES IS WHERE THE
WARMEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FOUND WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR
NIGHTTIME LOWS.
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY
LIFTS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MOVEMENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP OUR AREA DRY WITH LINGERING CLOUDS BRUSHING BY THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL
AGAIN BE FOUND ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND WITH 850 HPA
RANGING FROM +2 TO +4 OUR HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND WILL
AGAIN BE FOUND ACROSS THE CWA.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND WINDS BACKING TO MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. WHILE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SPOTTY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND INLAND NORTH COUNTRY THE LIGHTER WINDS AND RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FROST.
ON MONDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION.
SUBSIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A DRY MEMORIAL DAY AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH A BLUE SKY TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL FALL SHY OF NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE LOW...IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WHICH WILL BRING LOW RH VALUES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT MONDAY WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH BUILDING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE 12Z GFS/12Z CANADIAN OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF...WITH A PASSAGE TUESDAY...WHILE THE
EUROPEAN MODEL FOCUSES MORE UPON WEDNESDAY. WILL BRING LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH LOW DEWPOINTS
AND SEASONABLE LATE MAY TEMPERATURES.
AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WHILE
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
CAP ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS WE
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CLOSE OFF IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH OUR REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.
EXPECT A GENERAL CLEARING TREND THROUGH 12Z OR SO AT MOST TAF
SITES...WITH ANY LINGERING CLOUDS VFR IN THE 5-6K FT RANGE. AFTER
THIS EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AT BUF/IAG/ROC/JHW. CLOUDS
SHOULD LINGER LONGER AT ART...CLOSEST TO THE LOW...WITH POSSIBLY A
SPRINKLE MID-DAY TODAY AS MOISTURE PIVOTS AROUND THE LOW.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
UNSEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER LAKES REGION DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED COLD
AIR ALOFT...WITH A PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
SUSTAINING LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS. THESE WILL PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON LAKE ERIE AND THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH. THIS SAID...SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP ON LAKE ERIE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FURTHER EAST...THE MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY ON THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END SMALL ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS THERE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...WITH NO ISSUES FORESEEN FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ019>021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LOZ043>045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LOZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...JJR/TMA
000
FXUS61 KBTV 250531
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD...AND IN
SOME CASES FLOODING RAINFALL TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND BREEZY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH GRADUALLY MODERATE BY MONDAY AS DRY WEATHER RETURNS.
THEREAFTER...WARM TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RETURN BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS
MORNING WITH CRNT RADAR SHOWING BANDS OF MODERATE RAIN IMPACTING
EASTERN DACKS INTO MOST OF VT. THIS WL CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES LIKELY ACRS OUR
EASTERN DACKS TO CPV TO CT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WL SLOWLY COOL BACK
INTO THE M/U 30S MTNS TO L40S CPV. LITTLE RAIN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS ANTICIPATED FOR THE SLV.
HAVE NOTED TEMP ATOP MOUNT MANSFIELD IS 32F AND 28F ON WHITEFACE.
THE WHITEFACE WEB CAM DID SHOW SNOW THIS AFTN AND WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION ALREADY...BEFORE DARKNESS. HAVE TRIED TO PLACE SOME
SNOW GRIDS IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOR TONIGHT. LATEST TRENDS CONT
TO SHOW COLD TEMPS DEVELOPING WITH SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 2000 FEET. WE MAY NEED A STATEMENT
REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL AND THE ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. MORE AFTER
REVIEWING 00Z DATA.
GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE VICINITY OF CAPE COD WILL DEEPEN SLOWLY IN
RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW YORK AND WESTERN VERMONT.
COVERAGE HAS FILLED IN ACROSS REST OF VERMONT AS WELL. RAINFALL
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHILE IT
CONTINUES MOSTLY DRY IN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT RAIN TO
CONTINUE ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK OVERNIGHT...WITH
LOWER POPS FOR WESTERN ZONES. TEMPS COLD ENOUGH OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS TO SUPPORT SNOW. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT...
WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S...BUT 30S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT AS DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND BECOMES GRADUALLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER TIME. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER ENERGY WILL
CAPTURE A DEVELOPING SFC LOW RIDING NORTHEAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...AND DRIVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD
INTO OUR AREA. INCREASING OMEGA/FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE LOW TRACK ALL ARGUE FOR CONTINUED CATEGORICAL POPS
(90-100%) THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
EASTWARD. AFTER A PERIOD OF EARLY EVENING SHOWERS...THE FAR
WEST...NAMELY THE SLV WILL TREND DRIER. LOWS QUITE CHILLY UNDER
CONTINUED NORTHERLY BREEZES...GENERALLY 35 TO 45 WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE 3000 FEET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT FRIDAY...BY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEP
UPPER CLOSED H5 TROUGH AND CAPTURED/OCCLUDING SFC LOW NEAR THE
GULF OF MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR AREA WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD.
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
VERMONT COUNTIES WHERE WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCH RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE LIKELY. THIS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN OUR RECENT
BOUT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES
(SEE HYDRO DISC BELOW).
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN CHILLY UNDER STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 40S FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
EASTWARD...THOUGH MILDER ACROSS THE SLV WHERE LACK OF DYNAMICAL
COOLING AFFECTS FROM PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW READINGS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...35 TO 45 WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AT THE
SUMMIT LEVEL ABOVE 2500-3000 FEET.
BY SUNDAY...DEEP UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO FILL AND BEGIN TO TRUDGE
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THUS SHOWERY WEATHER IN THE
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY END OVER TIME AS SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE. HIGHS A TAD MILDER FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S DACKS EAST...AND 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE SLV BY DAYS END
WHERE SOME SUN POSSIBLE LATE.
CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH
LOSES INFLUENCE AND IS REPLACED BY BROAD RIDGING IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES. SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY TREND PTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS LOWS BOTTOM OUT
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THRU
THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS REPLACES THE EXITING LOW FROM
THE WEEKEND. SOME CLDS FOR THE NE KINGDOM MONDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE PRECIP-FREE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA. FOR WED INTO FRI...MDLS DO BRING WARM FRNT ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE TOP OF UPPER RIDGE. THIS SETUP WILL FOCUS PRECIP
INTO THE REGION. SOME MDL TIMING/PLACEMENT AND AMT OF QPF POSSIBLE
AS FRNT MEANDERS THRU AREA. DIFFERENCES ARE DUE TO POTENTIAL TRW
ALONG BOUNDARY. WITH 925 TEMPS RANGING FROM +16C TO +22C AND 850
TEMPS +12C TO +17C...AMPLE INSTABILITY APPEARS AVAILABLE TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HRS. BY
FRIDAY...FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES
AS FRNT SHIFTS NORTHWARD. FOR TEMPS IN EXTENDED...STAYING CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GOING FROM THE 60S MONDAY TO THE LOW 80S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS AIRMASS SHIFTS FROM CAA ON WNW FLOW MONDAY TO
STRONG WAA MID-TO-END OF WEEK AS STRONG THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR AND
IFR CATEGORIES AT MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO CLOUDS...FOG...AND RAIN.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE KMSS WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST AS THEY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE COAST THAT IS PRODUCING ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WATCH FOR WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER
14Z FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND AS SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SUNDAY. A SLOW CLEARING TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 407 PM FRIDAY... UPPER/CLOSED LOW TO BRING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WHILE STABILITY WILL LIMIT EXCESSIVE HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES...36-48 HOUR TOTALS WILL NONETHELESS RANGE FROM 1.5-3.0
INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT...AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. LOCALLY RUN SSHP MODEL
HYDROGRAPHS SUGGEST THESE TOTALS WILL LIKELY BRING NUMEROUS SMALL
STREAMS TO BANKFULL...AND SEVERAL MAINSTEM RIVERS INTO FLOOD BY
SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. THUS A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...THE RIVERS OF MOST CONCERN WOULD BE
THE MISSISQUOI...LAMOILLE AND PASSUMPSIC IN VERMONT...AND THE
AUSABLE RIVER IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS IN
RAINFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS...MOST RIVER CRESTS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...LOOKING TO BE A PRETTY MISERABLE START TO
THE PRIME BOATING SEASON ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A STORM MORE TYPICAL
OF WINTER WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE FROM
TONIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO
35 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. FOR THAT REASON, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED
AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE WINDS FALL BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THESE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS, WITH
WAVES ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE ULTIMATELY BUILDING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6
FEET LATE SATURDAY. A STEADY RAIN AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S
ON SATURDAY WILL ADD TO THE MISERY.
THE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR BOATING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH THE UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...SOME
RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE APPROACHED OR BROKEN. THEY ARE LISTED
BELOW.
BURLINGTON: 51F (1921,1925)
MONTPELIER: 48F (1967)
MASSENA: 55F (1969,1979)
ST JOHNSBURY: 52F (1931,1925)
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-031-034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV
MARINE...WFO BTV
CLIMATE...WFO BTV
000
FXUS61 KBTV 250459
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1259 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD...AND IN
SOME CASES FLOODING RAINFALL TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND BREEZY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH GRADUALLY MODERATE BY MONDAY AS DRY WEATHER RETURNS.
THEREAFTER...WARM TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RETURN BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS
MORNING WITH CRNT RADAR SHOWING BANDS OF MODERATE RAIN IMPACTING
EASTERN DACKS INTO MOST OF VT. THIS WL CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES LIKELY ACRS OUR
EASTERN DACKS TO CPV TO CT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WL SLOWLY COOL BACK
INTO THE M/U 30S MTNS TO L40S CPV. LITTLE RAIN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS ANTICIPATED FOR THE SLV.
HAVE NOTED TEMP ATOP MOUNT MANSFIELD IS 32F AND 28F ON WHITEFACE.
THE WHITEFACE WEB CAM DID SHOW SNOW THIS AFTN AND WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION ALREADY...BEFORE DARKNESS. HAVE TRIED TO PLACE SOME
SNOW GRIDS IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOR TONIGHT. LATEST TRENDS CONT
TO SHOW COLD TEMPS DEVELOPING WITH SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 2000 FEET. WE MAY NEED A STATEMENT
REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL AND THE ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. MORE AFTER
REVIEWING 00Z DATA.
GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE VICINITY OF CAPE COD WILL DEEPEN SLOWLY IN
RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW YORK AND WESTERN VERMONT.
COVERAGE HAS FILLED IN ACROSS REST OF VERMONT AS WELL. RAINFALL
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHILE IT
CONTINUES MOSTLY DRY IN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT RAIN TO
CONTINUE ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK OVERNIGHT...WITH
LOWER POPS FOR WESTERN ZONES. TEMPS COLD ENOUGH OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS TO SUPPORT SNOW. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT...
WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S...BUT 30S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT AS DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND BECOMES GRADUALLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER TIME. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER ENERGY WILL
CAPTURE A DEVELOPING SFC LOW RIDING NORTHEAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...AND DRIVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD
INTO OUR AREA. INCREASING OMEGA/FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE LOW TRACK ALL ARGUE FOR CONTINUED CATEGORICAL POPS
(90-100%) THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
EASTWARD. AFTER A PERIOD OF EARLY EVENING SHOWERS...THE FAR
WEST...NAMELY THE SLV WILL TREND DRIER. LOWS QUITE CHILLY UNDER
CONTINUED NORTHERLY BREEZES...GENERALLY 35 TO 45 WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE 3000 FEET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT FRIDAY...BY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEP
UPPER CLOSED H5 TROUGH AND CAPTURED/OCCLUDING SFC LOW NEAR THE
GULF OF MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR AREA WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD.
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
VERMONT COUNTIES WHERE WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCH RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE LIKELY. THIS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN OUR RECENT
BOUT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES
(SEE HYDRO DISC BELOW).
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN CHILLY UNDER STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 40S FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
EASTWARD...THOUGH MILDER ACROSS THE SLV WHERE LACK OF DYNAMICAL
COOLING AFFECTS FROM PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW READINGS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...35 TO 45 WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AT THE
SUMMIT LEVEL ABOVE 2500-3000 FEET.
BY SUNDAY...DEEP UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO FILL AND BEGIN TO TRUDGE
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THUS SHOWERY WEATHER IN THE
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY END OVER TIME AS SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE. HIGHS A TAD MILDER FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S DACKS EAST...AND 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE SLV BY DAYS END
WHERE SOME SUN POSSIBLE LATE.
CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH
LOSES INFLUENCE AND IS REPLACED BY BROAD RIDGING IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES. SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY TREND PTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS LOWS BOTTOM OUT
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THRU
THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS REPLACES THE EXITING LOW FROM
THE WEEKEND. SOME CLDS FOR THE NE KINGDOM MONDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE PRECIP-FREE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA. FOR WED INTO FRI...MDLS DO BRING WARM FRNT ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE TOP OF UPPER RIDGE. THIS SETUP WILL FOCUS PRECIP
INTO THE REGION. SOME MDL TIMING/PLACEMENT AND AMT OF QPF POSSIBLE
AS FRNT MEANDERS THRU AREA. DIFFERENCES ARE DUE TO POTENTIAL TRW
ALONG BOUNDARY. WITH 925 TEMPS RANGING FROM +16C TO +22C AND 850
TEMPS +12C TO +17C...AMPLE INSTABILITY APPEARS AVAILABLE TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HRS. BY
FRIDAY...FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES
AS FRNT SHIFTS NORTHWARD. FOR TEMPS IN EXTENDED...STAYING CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GOING FROM THE 60S MONDAY TO THE LOW 80S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS AIRMASS SHIFTS FROM CAA ON WNW FLOW MONDAY TO
STRONG WAA MID-TO-END OF WEEK AS STRONG THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF
SITES DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND MIST/FOG
DUE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
EXCEPTION WILL BE MSS WHICH WILL BE MOSTLY VFR. WINDS MAINLY NORTH
AT 10-20 KTS...EXCEPT AROUND 10 KTS BETWEEN 00Z-12Z SATURDAY FOR
MSS/SLK/RUT.
OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND AS SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SUNDAY. A SLOW CLEARING TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 407 PM FRIDAY... UPPER/CLOSED LOW TO BRING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WHILE STABILITY WILL LIMIT EXCESSIVE HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES...36-48 HOUR TOTALS WILL NONETHELESS RANGE FROM 1.5-3.0
INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT...AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. LOCALLY RUN SSHP MODEL
HYDROGRAPHS SUGGEST THESE TOTALS WILL LIKELY BRING NUMEROUS SMALL
STREAMS TO BANKFULL...AND SEVERAL MAINSTEM RIVERS INTO FLOOD BY
SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. THUS A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...THE RIVERS OF MOST CONCERN WOULD BE
THE MISSISQUOI...LAMOILLE AND PASSUMPSIC IN VERMONT...AND THE
AUSABLE RIVER IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS IN
RAINFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS...MOST RIVER CRESTS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...LOOKING TO BE A PRETTY MISERABLE START TO
THE PRIME BOATING SEASON ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A STORM MORE TYPICAL
OF WINTER WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE FROM
TONIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO
35 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. FOR THAT REASON, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED
AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE WINDS FALL BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THESE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS, WITH
WAVES ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE ULTIMATELY BUILDING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6
FEET LATE SATURDAY. A STEADY RAIN AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S
ON SATURDAY WILL ADD TO THE MISERY.
THE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR BOATING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH THE UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...SOME
RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE APPROACHED OR BROKEN. THEY ARE LISTED
BELOW.
BURLINGTON: 51F (1921,1925)
MONTPELIER: 48F (1967)
MASSENA: 55F (1969,1979)
ST JOHNSBURY: 52F (1931,1925)
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-031-034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...RJS/JN
HYDROLOGY...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KOKX 250430
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1230 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ON A COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY...THEN
WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES EARLY IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH BY MID WEEK...MOVING BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH...THEN
DROPPING BACK TO THE SOUTH BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST OF OCCASIONAL SHRA OVERNIGHT ON TRACK BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS. DID LOWER FORECAST LOWS A TAD BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATION TRENDS - WITH NOW LOWER-MID 40S EXPECTED.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING FARTHER EAST OF THE REGION. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS INCREASE AND KEEP MORE MIXING CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY WHILE DEEPENING WITH A DIP IN THE JET STREAM MOVING
ACROSS OUR REGION. A MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY IS IN STORE
ALONG WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN WITH THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY
AND COLD POOL ALOFT.
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS STARTS TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF OF MAINE. LOW
LEVEL JET OF AROUND 40-50 KT DEVELOPS NEAR 925 MB AND WITH
EXPECTATION OF GOOD MIXING THE MAX GUST POTENTIAL COULD REACH
40-45 KT. THIS IS MOST PRONOUNCED WITH THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WITH NAM BUFKIT KEEPING IT MORE IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. INCREASED
WIND GUSTS A GOOD 10 KT ABOVE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND IS A
FEW KTS BELOW CRITERIA BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME SITES COULD
SEE GUSTS IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE SATURDAY...PROBABLY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
ALSO OF NOTE IS THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOWN BY
MUCAPE OF ALMOST 100 J/KG. THEREFORE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND WITH THE MUCH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT...HENCE
SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
A MAV/MET/NAM12 BLEND USED FOR HIGHS BUT ADJUSTED DOWNWARD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 IN URBAN NORTHEAST NEW
JERSEY.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...ADVECTIONS DECREASE IN EFFICIENCY WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW STACKING AND SURFACE LOW IN GULF OF MAINE HALTING IN
FURTHER DEEPENING...LOSING STRUCTURE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO MATERIALIZE WITH POPS GRADUALLY
LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. COLDER NIGHT THAN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MAV/MET BLEND USED ONCE AGAIN. LOWS FORECAST INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
ON SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER CLOSED
LOW OPENS...EVENTUALLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS...WITH IT/S AXIS REMAINING TO THE WEST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK.
AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. A WARM
FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST.
BY MID WEEK...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON HANDLING OF SFC FEATURES WITH
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES NOTED ALOFT. WILL FOLLOW WPC WITH THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME...WHICH LEANS TOWARD ECMWF. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COULD RIDE ALONG THE FRONT...IN THE NW
TO SE UPPER FLOW AS THE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...NOT TOO
SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE...BUT WILL
NEED TO INTRODUCE POPS LATE TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
WEAK LOW ON THE FRONT MOVES EAST WED AS THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE
NORTH. VORTICITY ADVECTION RIDES ALONG THE NW/SE UPPER FLOW...WITH
POTENTIAL HIGHER COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT MOVES EAST BY
FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. AS
SUCH...AT LEAST MINIMAL POPS WARRANTED WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE AT BEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPS STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AS COLD POOL SLOWLY LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS OF 50S AT NIGHT
AND 70S DURING THE DAY WILL SLOWLY WARM UP BY LATE WEEK AS RIDGE
AXIS MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS. TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...OR AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER/MID 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
FACING SHORES LOOKS REASONABLE PER WPC/EC MOS LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES NEAR CAPE COD WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GULF OF ME TONIGHT AND
SAT.
EXPECT A STRONG NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING OFFSHORE
LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS RAMPING UP DURING THE DAY ON
SAT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT IN THE AFT. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF A WIND DIRECTION RIGHT AROUND 330 TRUE.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR OVERNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
VFR BY 18Z SAT. NYC AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS MAY FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR TONIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IN SHRA SAT WITH COLD TEMPS
ALOFT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE SHOWERS. NW GUSTS AROUND
35 KT.
.SUN...VFR. NW GUSTS 30-35KT.
.MON...VFR.
.TUE-WED...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND
GALES ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW DEEPENING IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. THE WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THAT LOW
WEAKENS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE FOR
THE SHORT TERM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. GUSTY NW FLOW BACKS IN TIME TO THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST AS SPEEDS DIMINISH. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
TUE AND WED WITH SOUTH TO EAST WINDS PREVAILING THIS TIME FRAME.
ROUGH OCEAN SEAS PER WAVE WATCH III EARLY SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE AS THE
STORM DEPARTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NO FLOODING
PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MALOIT/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/PW
000
FXUS61 KOKX 250253
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1053 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ON A COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY...THEN WEAKENS
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY
IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH BY
MID WEEK...MOVING BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH...THEN DROPPING BACK TO THE
SOUTH BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SATURATED
LOW/MID LEVELS WITH WEAK LIFT AND HIGHER PVA ALOFT THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCNL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO T/TD GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER SFC CONDS.
OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING FARTHER EAST OF THE REGION. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS INCREASE AND KEEP MORE MIXING CONDITIONS IN PLACE. A
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED FOR LOWS WHICH WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WHILE DEEPENING WITH A DIP IN THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS OUR
REGION. A MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY IS IN STORE ALONG WITH
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN WITH THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND COLD POOL
ALOFT. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS STARTS TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 40-50 KT DEVELOPS NEAR 925 MB AND WITH
EXPECTATION OF GOOD MIXING THE MAX GUST POTENTIAL COULD REACH 40-45
KT. THIS IS MOST PRONOUNCED WITH THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM
BUFKIT KEEPING IT MORE IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. INCREASED WIND GUSTS A
GOOD 10 KT ABOVE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND IS A FEW KTS BELOW
CRITERIA BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME SITES COULD SEE GUSTS IN
THE 40-45 KT RANGE SATURDAY...PROBABLY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY MUCAPE OF ALMOST 100 J/KG. THEREFORE...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND WITH THE MUCH COLDER TEMPS
ALOFT...HENCE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL.
A MAV/MET/NAM12 BLEND USED FOR HIGHS BUT ADJUSTED DOWNWARD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 IN URBAN NORTHEAST NEW
JERSEY.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...ADVECTIONS DECREASE IN EFFICIENCY WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW STACKING AND SURFACE LOW IN GULF OF MAINE HALTING IN
FURTHER DEEPENING...LOSING STRUCTURE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO MATERIALIZE WITH POPS GRADUALLY
LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. COLDER NIGHT THAN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MAV/MET BLEND USED ONCE AGAIN. LOWS FORECAST INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
ON SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER CLOSED LOW
OPENS...EVENTUALLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS...WITH IT/S AXIS REMAINING TO THE WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. A WARM
FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST.
BY MID WEEK...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON HANDLING OF SFC FEATURES WITH
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES NOTED ALOFT. WILL FOLLOW WPC WITH THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME...WHICH LEANS TOWARD ECMWF. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COULD RIDE ALONG THE FRONT...IN THE NW
TO SE UPPER FLOW AS THE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...NOT TOO
SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE...BUT WILL
NEED TO INTRODUCE POPS LATE TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
WEAK LOW ON THE FRONT MOVES EAST WED AS THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE
NORTH. VORTICITY ADVECTION RIDES ALONG THE NW/SE UPPER FLOW...WITH
POTENTIAL HIGHER COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT MOVES EAST BY
FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. AS
SUCH...AT LEAST MINIMAL POPS WARRANTED WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE AT BEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPS STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AS COLD POOL SLOWLY LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS OF 50S AT NIGHT
AND 70S DURING THE DAY WILL SLOWLY WARM UP BY LATE WEEK AS RIDGE
AXIS MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS. TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...OR AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER/MID 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH FACING
SHORES LOOKS REASONABLE PER WPC/EC MOS LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES NEAR CAPE COD WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GULF OF ME TNGT AND
SAT.
EXPECT A STRONG NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING OFFSHORE
LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS RAMPING UP DURING THE DAY ON
SAT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT IN THE AFT. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF A WIND DIRECTION RIGHT AROUND 330 TRUE.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR OVERNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
VFR BY 18Z SAT. NYC AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS MAY FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR TONIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IN SHRA SAT WITH COLD TEMPS
ALOFT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE SHOWERS. NW GUSTS AROUND
35 KT.
.SUN...VFR. NW GUSTS 30-35KT.
.MON...VFR.
.TUE-WED...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE INVOF A WARM FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDS TONIGHT AND GALES ON
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW DEEPENING IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THE
WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THAT LOW WEAKENS.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. GUSTY NW FLOW BACKS IN TIME TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST
AS SPEEDS DIMINISH. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS TUE AND WED
WITH SOUTH TO EAST WINDS PREVAILING THIS TIME FRAME.
ROUGH OCEAN SEAS PER WAVE WATCH III EARLY SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE AS THE
STORM DEPARTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NO FLOODING
PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KBTV 250247
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1047 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD...AND IN
SOME CASES FLOODING RAINFALL TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND BREEZY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH GRADUALLY MODERATE BY MONDAY AS DRY WEATHER RETURNS.
THEREAFTER...WARM TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RETURN BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1037 PM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE VICINITY OF CAPE COD WILL DEEPEN SLOWLY IN
RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW YORK AND WESTERN VERMONT.
COVERAGE HAS FILLED IN ACROSS REST OF VERMONT AS WELL. RAINFALL
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHILE IT
CONTINUES MOSTLY DRY IN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT RAIN TO
CONTINUE ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK OVERNIGHT...WITH
LOWER POPS FOR WESTERN ZONES. TEMPS COLD ENOUGH OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS TO SUPPORT SNOW. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT...
WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S...BUT 30S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT AS DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND BECOMES GRADUALLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER TIME. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER ENERGY WILL
CAPTURE A DEVELOPING SFC LOW RIDING NORTHEAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...AND DRIVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD
INTO OUR AREA. INCREASING OMEGA/FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE LOW TRACK ALL ARGUE FOR CONTINUED CATEGORICAL POPS
(90-100%) THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
EASTWARD. AFTER A PERIOD OF EARLY EVENING SHOWERS...THE FAR
WEST...NAMELY THE SLV WILL TREND DRIER. LOWS QUITE CHILLY UNDER
CONTINUED NORTHERLY BREEZES...GENERALLY 35 TO 45 WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE 3000 FEET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT FRIDAY...BY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEP
UPPER CLOSED H5 TROUGH AND CAPTURED/OCCLUDING SFC LOW NEAR THE
GULF OF MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR AREA WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD.
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
VERMONT COUNTIES WHERE WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCH RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE LIKELY. THIS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN OUR RECENT
BOUT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES
(SEE HYDRO DISC BELOW).
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN CHILLY UNDER STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 40S FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
EASTWARD...THOUGH MILDER ACROSS THE SLV WHERE LACK OF DYNAMICAL
COOLING AFFECTS FROM PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW READINGS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...35 TO 45 WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AT THE
SUMMIT LEVEL ABOVE 2500-3000 FEET.
BY SUNDAY...DEEP UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO FILL AND BEGIN TO TRUDGE
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THUS SHOWERY WEATHER IN THE
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY END OVER TIME AS SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE. HIGHS A TAD MILDER FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S DACKS EAST...AND 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE SLV BY DAYS END
WHERE SOME SUN POSSIBLE LATE.
CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH
LOSES INFLUENCE AND IS REPLACED BY BROAD RIDGING IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES. SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY TREND PTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS LOWS BOTTOM OUT
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THRU
THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS REPLACES THE EXITING LOW FROM
THE WEEKEND. SOME CLDS FOR THE NE KINGDOM MONDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE PRECIP-FREE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA. FOR WED INTO FRI...MDLS DO BRING WARM FRNT ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE TOP OF UPPER RIDGE. THIS SETUP WILL FOCUS PRECIP
INTO THE REGION. SOME MDL TIMING/PLACEMENT AND AMT OF QPF POSSIBLE
AS FRNT MEANDERS THRU AREA. DIFFERENCES ARE DUE TO POTENTIAL TRW
ALONG BOUNDARY. WITH 925 TEMPS RANGING FROM +16C TO +22C AND 850
TEMPS +12C TO +17C...AMPLE INSTABILITY APPEARS AVAILABLE TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HRS. BY
FRIDAY...FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES
AS FRNT SHIFTS NORTHWARD. FOR TEMPS IN EXTENDED...STAYING CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GOING FROM THE 60S MONDAY TO THE LOW 80S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS AIRMASS SHIFTS FROM CAA ON WNW FLOW MONDAY TO
STRONG WAA MID-TO-END OF WEEK AS STRONG THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF
SITES DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND MIST/FOG
DUE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
EXCEPTION WILL BE MSS WHICH WILL BE MOSTLY VFR. WINDS MAINLY NORTH
AT 10-20 KTS...EXCEPT AROUND 10 KTS BETWEEN 00Z-12Z SATURDAY FOR
MSS/SLK/RUT.
OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND AS SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SUNDAY. A SLOW CLEARING TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 407 PM FRIDAY... UPPER/CLOSED LOW TO BRING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WHILE STABILITY WILL LIMIT EXCESSIVE HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES...36-48 HOUR TOTALS WILL NONETHELESS RANGE FROM 1.5-3.0
INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT...AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. LOCALLY RUN SSHP MODEL
HYDROGRAPHS SUGGEST THESE TOTALS WILL LIKELY BRING NUMEROUS SMALL
STREAMS TO BANKFULL...AND SEVERAL MAINSTEM RIVERS INTO FLOOD BY
SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. THUS A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...THE RIVERS OF MOST CONCERN WOULD BE
THE MISSISQUOI...LAMOILLE AND PASSUMPSIC IN VERMONT...AND THE
AUSABLE RIVER IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS IN
RAINFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS...MOST RIVER CRESTS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...LOOKING TO BE A PRETTY MISERABLE START TO
THE PRIME BOATING SEASON ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A STORM MORE TYPICAL
OF WINTER WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE FROM
TONIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO
35 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. FOR THAT REASON, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED
AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE WINDS FALL BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THESE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS, WITH
WAVES ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE ULTIMATELY BUILDING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6
FEET LATE SATURDAY. A STEADY RAIN AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S
ON SATURDAY WILL ADD TO THE MISERY.
THE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR BOATING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH THE UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...SOME
RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE APPROACHED OR BROKEN. THEY ARE LISTED
BELOW.
BURLINGTON: 51F (1921,1925)
MONTPELIER: 48F (1967)
MASSENA: 55F (1969,1979)
ST JOHNSBURY: 52F (1931,1925)
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-031-034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...RJS/JN
HYDROLOGY...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KBUF 250241
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1041 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
MAINLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE COASTAL
LOW/S PRECIPITATION SHIELD LINGERING NEAR THE LEWIS COUNTY
BORDER...WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING
BACK TO THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. WITH THE
POSITION OF THE COASTAL LOW CHANGING LITTLE OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN PLACE ACROSS LEWIS COUNTY...ALONG WITH
CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
FURTHER TO THE WEST...CLEARING SKIES HAVE PROGRESSED ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES PERSIST FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT...EXPECT THIS CLEARING TREND TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER
AIR SLOWLY BUILDS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...THOUGH RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THIS WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE A BIT MORE
SLOWLY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND CHILLY AIRMASS THAT IS IN PLACE...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER THAT ONLY HAVE A SHORT WAYS
TO GO BEFORE REACHING THE FREEZING MARK...AND WHERE THE CURRENT
FREEZE WARNING STILL LOOKS PLAUSIBLE. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE
NORTH...SOME SPOTS CLOUD SEE TEMPS AS LOW AS THE MID 30S...HOWEVER
FEEL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT AND/OR LINGERING CLOUD COVER
TO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A FROST THREAT.
SATURDAY...MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER LOW. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BACK IN FROM THE
EAST AND MAY IMPACT AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. BULK OF THE AREA
WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WITH COLD AIR MASS CENTERED OVER THE
AREA WE WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...ALTHOUGH
COOL WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT OVER TODAYS READINGS IN THE 30S AND
40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SITTING OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WITH A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION AROUND THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LARGELY BE CONFINED TO AREAS JUST TO OUR EAST...THOUGH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY BRUSH BY OUR NORTH COUNTRY. BY SUNDAY MORNING COLD AIR
UNDER THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BACK SLIGHTLY WESTWARD SUCH
THAT -2C AIR AT 850 HPA WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN FOOT HILLS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SNOW FLURRIES
MIXED IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
AWAY FROM THE NORTH COUNTRY MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE FOUND AND
COLD WITH A NORTHWEST WIND. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND THE CLOSED LOW
OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME SATURDAY NIGHT AS FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
CONCERN AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND THAT THE LIGHT WINDS
WILL LIMIT THE FROST FORMATION. CLOSER TO THE LAKES IS WHERE THE
WARMEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FOUND WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR
NIGHTTIME LOWS.
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY
LIFTS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MOVEMENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP OUR AREA DRY WITH LINGERING CLOUDS BRUSHING BY THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL
AGAIN BE FOUND ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND WITH 850 HPA
RANGING FROM +2 TO +4 OUR HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND WILL
AGAIN BE FOUND ACROSS THE CWA.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND WINDS BACKING TO MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. WHILE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SPOTTY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND INLAND NORTH COUNTRY THE LIGHTER WINDS AND RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FROST.
ON MONDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION.
SUBSIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A DRY MEMORIAL DAY AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH A BLUE SKY TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL FALL SHY OF NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE LOW...IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WHICH WILL BRING LOW RH VALUES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT MONDAY WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH BUILDING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE 12Z GFS/12Z CANADIAN OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF...WITH A PASSAGE TUESDAY...WHILE THE
EUROPEAN MODEL FOCUSES MORE UPON WEDNESDAY. WILL BRING LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH LOW DEWPOINTS
AND SEASONABLE LATE MAY TEMPERATURES.
AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WHILE
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
CAP ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS WE
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LINGERING 5-6 KFT CIGS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE
WEST...LINGERING VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY
SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS
EAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH UNLIMITED VFR CONDITIONS
THEN FOLLOWING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
UNSEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER LAKES REGION DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED COLD
AIR ALOFT...WITH A PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
SUSTAINING LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS. THESE WILL PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON LAKE ERIE AND THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH. THIS SAID...SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP ON LAKE ERIE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FURTHER EAST...THE MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY ON THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END SMALL ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS THERE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...WITH NO ISSUES FORESEEN FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ019>021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LOZ043>045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR/TMA
000
FXUS61 KALY 250158
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
958 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL PROMOTE COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
A RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM EDT...RAIN CONTINUES TO IMPACT MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION. NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO
REINSTATE CHILLY TEMPERATURES DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
LOW TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CATSKILLS WHERE OBSERVATIONS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WHERE
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 30S AND EVEN SOME VALUES IN THE MID 30S.
HOWEVER...AS THE CAA BECOMES LESS DOMINANT THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING...WE DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH
FURTHER.
FAVORABLE QG DYNAMICS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW OBTAINS A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT WITH HEIGHT. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HELPING TO
TRANSPORT ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
VIA A COLD CONVEYOR BELT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYNOPTIC
FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF AN
INCH...WITH RAINFALL RATES AGAIN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH PER
HOUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT HANDLING
THE PROGRESSION/EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW/COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HAVE LARGELY TAKEN A BLENDED
APPROACH DURING THIS TIME FRAME...LEANING TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MAINTAINS A
NEGATIVE TILT SATURDAY...COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OFF
THE MASSACHUSETTS COAST AIDED BY A WEAK PV LOBE AND FAVORABLE QG
DYNAMICS. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ACT IN TANDEM TO ENHANCE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD CONVEYOR BELT. THIS
CONVEYOR BELT WILL HELP THROW BACK ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND PROMOTE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING VERTICALLY-STACKED WITH THE COASTAL LOW. THESE
FEATURES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FOR SUNDAY...WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE FROM HALF AN INCH IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TO TWO INCHES ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT
HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MEMORIAL DAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE NOVEMBER AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS WILL RETURN
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR MEMORIAL DAY GENERALLY IN LOW 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
LOW 30S TO LOW 40S.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE WEEKEND...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5-10 MPH FOR MONDAY.
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN PORTIONS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FROST ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND WITH A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE START...AND EVENTUALLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. STILL COOL MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THURSDAY AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. FAIR AND VERY WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES
HOLD.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW OR MID 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT 50 TO 60.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RAIN HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
SETTLES IN OVER COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. A MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT TO ALL OF THE TERMINALS. FLYING
CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY EXPECTED TO BE MVFR...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHEN PERSISTENT
MODERATE RAIN FALLS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
AFTER 06Z AND INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY AS BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WILL MENTION MVFR FOR NOW WITH TIME FOR
REFINEMENT IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES. OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING STATIONARY
ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KT WITH
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KT...THEN BECOMING STEADY AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 12 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO
30 KTS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NIGHT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
WED...VFR. MVFR PSBL WITH CHC PM SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE AN
ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GENERALLY
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5-10 MPH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RH LEVELS DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL BE ABOVE 30
PERCENT...WITH RH LEVELS DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 60-80 PERCENT AND NORMAL OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES BETWEEN 80-100
PERCENT. RH LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 35-55 PERCENT
RANGE WITH NORMAL OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STRATIFORM RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING THAT WILL BRING A HALF INCH TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS NORTH AND EAST.
ALTHOUGH THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS FROM
RECENT HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...RAINFALL RATES OF ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR
WILL ALLOW LOCAL WATERSHEDS ENOUGH TIME TO RECOVER WITH ONLY MODEST
WITHIN BANK RISES.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KOKX 250107
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
907 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ON A COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY...THEN WEAKENS
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY
IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH BY
MID WEEK...MOVING BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH...THEN DROPPING BACK TO THE
SOUTH BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS TONIGHT BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE
SATURATED LOW/MID LEVELS WITH WEAK LIFT AND HIGHER PVA ALOFT THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCNL SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO T/TD GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER SFC CONDS.
OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING FARTHER EAST OF THE REGION. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS INCREASE AND KEEP MORE MIXING CONDITIONS IN PLACE. A
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED FOR LOWS WHICH WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WHILE DEEPENING WITH A DIP IN THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS OUR
REGION. A MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY IS IN STORE ALONG WITH
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN WITH THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND COLD POOL
ALOFT. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS STARTS TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 40-50 KT DEVELOPS NEAR 925 MB AND WITH
EXPECTATION OF GOOD MIXING THE MAX GUST POTENTIAL COULD REACH 40-45
KT. THIS IS MOST PRONOUNCED WITH THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM
BUFKIT KEEPING IT MORE IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. INCREASED WIND GUSTS A
GOOD 10 KT ABOVE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND IS A FEW KTS BELOW
CRITERIA BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME SITES COULD SEE GUSTS IN
THE 40-45 KT RANGE SATURDAY...PROBABLY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY MUCAPE OF ALMOST 100 J/KG. THEREFORE...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND WITH THE MUCH COLDER TEMPS
ALOFT...HENCE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL.
A MAV/MET/NAM12 BLEND USED FOR HIGHS BUT ADJUSTED DOWNWARD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 IN URBAN NORTHEAST NEW
JERSEY.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...ADVECTIONS DECREASE IN EFFICIENCY WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW STACKING AND SURFACE LOW IN GULF OF MAINE HALTING IN
FURTHER DEEPENING...LOSING STRUCTURE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO MATERIALIZE WITH POPS GRADUALLY
LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. COLDER NIGHT THAN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MAV/MET BLEND USED ONCE AGAIN. LOWS FORECAST INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
ON SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER CLOSED LOW
OPENS...EVENTUALLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS...WITH IT/S AXIS REMAINING TO THE WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. A WARM
FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST.
BY MID WEEK...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON HANDLING OF SFC FEATURES WITH
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES NOTED ALOFT. WILL FOLLOW WPC WITH THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME...WHICH LEANS TOWARD ECMWF. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COULD RIDE ALONG THE FRONT...IN THE NW
TO SE UPPER FLOW AS THE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...NOT TOO
SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE...BUT WILL
NEED TO INTRODUCE POPS LATE TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
WEAK LOW ON THE FRONT MOVES EAST WED AS THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE
NORTH. VORTICITY ADVECTION RIDES ALONG THE NW/SE UPPER FLOW...WITH
POTENTIAL HIGHER COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT MOVES EAST BY
FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. AS
SUCH...AT LEAST MINIMAL POPS WARRANTED WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE AT BEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPS STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AS COLD POOL SLOWLY LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS OF 50S AT NIGHT
AND 70S DURING THE DAY WILL SLOWLY WARM UP BY LATE WEEK AS RIDGE
AXIS MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS. TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...OR AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER/MID 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH FACING
SHORES LOOKS REASONABLE PER WPC/EC MOS LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES NEAR CAPE COD WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GULF OF ME TNGT AND
SAT.
EXPECT A STRONG NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING OFFSHORE
LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS RAMPING UP DURING THE DAY ON
SAT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT IN THE AFT. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF A WIND DIRECTION RIGHT AROUND 330 TRUE.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR OVERNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
VFR BY 18Z SAT. NYC AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS MAY FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR TONIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IN SHRA SAT WITH COLD TEMPS
ALOFT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE OF WINDS BACKING AROUND
310-320 TRUE SAT AFT. AMENDMENTS LIKELY WITH THE TIMING OF CIGS
IMPROVING TO VFR.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY WITH THE TIMING OF CIGS
IMPROVING TO VFR.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY WITH THE TIMING OF CIGS
IMPROVING TO VFR.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY WITH THE TIMING OF CIGS
IMPROVING TO VFR.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY WITH THE TIMING OF CIGS
IMPROVING TO VFR.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY WITH THE TIMING OF CIGS
IMPROVING TO VFR.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE SHOWERS. NW GUSTS AROUND
35 KT.
.SUN...VFR. NW GUSTS 30-35KT.
.MON...VFR.
.TUE-WED...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE INVOF A WARM FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDS TONIGHT AND GALES ON
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW DEEPENING IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THE
WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THAT LOW WEAKENS.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. GUSTY NW FLOW BACKS IN TIME TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST
AS SPEEDS DIMINISH. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS TUE AND WED
WITH SOUTH TO EAST WINDS PREVAILING THIS TIME FRAME.
ROUGH OCEAN SEAS PER WAVE WATCH III EARLY SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE AS THE
STORM DEPARTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NO FLOODING
PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KBTV 250023
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
823 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD...AND IN
SOME CASES FLOODING RAINFALL TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND BREEZY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH GRADUALLY MODERATE BY MONDAY AS DRY WEATHER RETURNS.
THEREAFTER...WARM TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RETURN BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST ON TRACK. STEADY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN FALLING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW YORK AND WESTERN
VERMONT THIS EVENING. RAINFALL MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS
REST OF AREA AT THIS TIME. EXPECT RAIN TO FILL IN ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ALONG SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGHS. SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.
TEMPS WILL NOT BE MOVING MUCH...WITH READINGS IN THE 40S EXCEPT
30S OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT AS DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND BECOMES GRADUALLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER TIME. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER ENERGY WILL
CAPTURE A DEVELOPING SFC LOW RIDING NORTHEAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...AND DRIVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD
INTO OUR AREA. INCREASING OMEGA/FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE LOW TRACK ALL ARGUE FOR CONTINUED CATEGORICAL POPS
(90-100%) THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
EASTWARD. AFTER A PERIOD OF EARLY EVENING SHOWERS...THE FAR
WEST...NAMELY THE SLV WILL TREND DRIER. LOWS QUITE CHILLY UNDER
CONTINUED NORTHERLY BREEZES...GENERALLY 35 TO 45 WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE 3000 FEET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT FRIDAY...BY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEP
UPPER CLOSED H5 TROUGH AND CAPTURED/OCCLUDING SFC LOW NEAR THE
GULF OF MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR AREA WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD.
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
VERMONT COUNTIES WHERE WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCH RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE LIKELY. THIS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN OUR RECENT
BOUT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES
(SEE HYDRO DISC BELOW).
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN CHILLY UNDER STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 40S FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
EASTWARD...THOUGH MILDER ACROSS THE SLV WHERE LACK OF DYNAMICAL
COOLING AFFECTS FROM PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW READINGS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...35 TO 45 WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AT THE
SUMMIT LEVEL ABOVE 2500-3000 FEET.
BY SUNDAY...DEEP UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO FILL AND BEGIN TO TRUDGE
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THUS SHOWERY WEATHER IN THE
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY END OVER TIME AS SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE. HIGHS A TAD MILDER FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S DACKS EAST...AND 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE SLV BY DAYS END
WHERE SOME SUN POSSIBLE LATE.
CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH
LOSES INFLUENCE AND IS REPLACED BY BROAD RIDGING IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES. SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY TREND PTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS LOWS BOTTOM OUT
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THRU
THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS REPLACES THE EXITING LOW FROM
THE WEEKEND. SOME CLDS FOR THE NE KINGDOM MONDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE PRECIP-FREE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA. FOR WED INTO FRI...MDLS DO BRING WARM FRNT ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE TOP OF UPPER RIDGE. THIS SETUP WILL FOCUS PRECIP
INTO THE REGION. SOME MDL TIMING/PLACEMENT AND AMT OF QPF POSSIBLE
AS FRNT MEANDERS THRU AREA. DIFFERENCES ARE DUE TO POTENTIAL TRW
ALONG BOUNDARY. WITH 925 TEMPS RANGING FROM +16C TO +22C AND 850
TEMPS +12C TO +17C...AMPLE INSTABILITY APPEARS AVAILABLE TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HRS. BY
FRIDAY...FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES
AS FRNT SHIFTS NORTHWARD. FOR TEMPS IN EXTENDED...STAYING CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GOING FROM THE 60S MONDAY TO THE LOW 80S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS AIRMASS SHIFTS FROM CAA ON WNW FLOW MONDAY TO
STRONG WAA MID-TO-END OF WEEK AS STRONG THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF
SITES DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND MIST/FOG
DUE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
EXCEPTION WILL BE MSS WHICH WILL BE MOSTLY VFR. WINDS MAINLY NORTH
AT 10-20 KTS...EXCEPT AROUND 10 KTS BETWEEN 00Z-12Z SATURDAY FOR
MSS/SLK/RUT.
OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND AS SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SUNDAY. A SLOW CLEARING TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 407 PM FRIDAY... UPPER/CLOSED LOW TO BRING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WHILE STABILITY WILL LIMIT EXCESSIVE HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES...36-48 HOUR TOTALS WILL NONETHELESS RANGE FROM 1.5-3.0
INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT...AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. LOCALLY RUN SSHP MODEL
HYDROGRAPHS SUGGEST THESE TOTALS WILL LIKELY BRING NUMEROUS SMALL
STREAMS TO BANKFULL...AND SEVERAL MAINSTEM RIVERS INTO FLOOD BY
SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. THUS A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...THE RIVERS OF MOST CONCERN WOULD BE
THE MISSISQUOI...LAMOILLE AND PASSUMPSIC IN VERMONT...AND THE
AUSABLE RIVER IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS IN
RAINFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS...MOST RIVER CRESTS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...LOOKING TO BE A PRETTY MISERABLE START TO
THE PRIME BOATING SEASON ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A STORM MORE TYPICAL
OF WINTER WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE FROM
TONIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO
35 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. FOR THAT REASON, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED
AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE WINDS FALL BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THESE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS, WITH
WAVES ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE ULTIMATELY BUILDING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6
FEET LATE SATURDAY. A STEADY RAIN AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S
ON SATURDAY WILL ADD TO THE MISERY.
THE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR BOATING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH THE UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...SOME
RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE APPROACHED OR BROKEN. THEY ARE LISTED
BELOW.
BURLINGTON: 51F (1921,1925)
MONTPELIER: 48F (1967)
MASSENA: 55F (1969,1979)
ST JOHNSBURY: 52F (1931,1925)
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-031-034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...EVENSON/JN
HYDROLOGY...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KBGM 250022
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
822 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY...NORTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL BE OVER OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL CAUSE COLD NIGHTS AND BREEZY DAYS. ALSO...A LOW
MOVING THOUGH NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
750 PM UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW PLAN, SO MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. MINS SHOULD
RANGE FROM 31 TO 36 DEGREES. HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY UP AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH, MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR FROST TO FORM.
4 PM UPDATE...
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR LOW CONTS TO PULL SLOWLY
EAST. BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN IS MIXED WITH SLEET AND SNOW AT
TIMES...MAKING FOR AN ALL TIME RECORD FOR LATEST SNOW RECORDED AT
BGM. SHRT TERM MODELS SHOW CONTD EWRD PROGRESS THRU THE NGT BRING
AND END TO THE PCPN FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST. PRBLM ARISES AS ENUF
DRY AIR GETS IN THAT SOME CLRG SEEMS LIKELY...ESP OVER THE WRN
ZONES...BRINGING THE PSBLTY OF FROST. WRKG AGAINST THE FROST WILL
BE THE WIND...WHICH IS FCSTD TO REMAIN AT OR ABV 10 KTS AT THE SFC
THRU THE NGT. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CAUTION AND POST AN ADVISORY
FOR STEUBEN CNTY...WHERE GRIDDED DATA SUGGEST SOME OF THE DEEPER
VLYS COULD GO LGT AND TEMPS APRCH 32F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS SLOWLY COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW MVMT OF THE UPR
LOW...IN FACT BACKING IT A BIT BRINGING PCPN BACK TO THE WEST ON
SAT. NAM IS STILL THE MOST OPTIMISTIC WITH THE GFS NOW SIDING WITH
THE ECMWF WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...BIT OF A DFCLT
FCST WITH A SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE CLDS WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
LRG DFRNC FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA...FROM SUN TO
COLD RAIN. OTR CNCRN IS THE CONTD THREAT OF FROST AND WHICH AREA
MAY BE AFFECTED. AS WITH TNGT...PSN OF THE LOW WILL HELP KEEP
WINDS UP IN MOST CLRD AREAS LIMITING THE CHANCE FOR FROST. XCPTN
MAY BE SUN NGT WHEN THE GRAD FINALLY RELAXS AS THE UPR LOW KICKS
EAST. SO...BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FROST MAY ACTUALLY BE
MEMORIAL DAY.
MODEL GUID WAS IN RSNBL AGREE EMT THRU THE PD LDG A HIER THAN NRML
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPS FCST. HWVR...STILL REMAIN TRICKY WITH A 10
TO 15 DEGREE HI TEMP DFRNC EASILY PSBL ACROSS THE AREA BOTH SAT
AND SUN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY WELL ADVERTISED WARM UP EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK AS BROAD
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS HOWEVER...FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING STALLED SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA WITH DEVELOPING
SHWRS/POSSIBLE THUNDER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST
RIDGE AXIS BUILDING FROM OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE MAINTAINED CHC
THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD BEFORE
ADVERTISING DRYING CONDITIONS BY LATE WEEK. INITIAL LOOK AT
DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR A NORTHWEST FLOW SEVERE CONVECTION SETUP WITH OUR
REGION RESIDING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY TO OUR SOUTHWEST. TOO EARLY FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT TO GET TOO EXCITED BUT TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS
THE TIMING NEARS. WITH FCST 850-HPA TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM WELL
INTO THE UPPER TEENS...FCST HIGHS BY THU AND FRI WILL LIKELY WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY PASSES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MOIST NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY, WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/MVFR CIGS
EXISTS OVER THE TERMINALS. THROUGH 03Z, BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KITH. LATER TONIGHT AS SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION CIGS WILL LIFT INTO THE MVFR/LOW VFR
CATEGORY. ON SATURDAY, STRATO CU WILL CONTINUE AROUND 4K FT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING MUCH STRONGER AND GUSTY
BY MID MORNING SATURDAY AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ022.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...RRM
000
FXUS61 KBTV 250020
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
820 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD...AND IN
SOME CASES FLOODING RAINFALL TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND BREEZY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH GRADUALLY MODERATE BY MONDAY AS DRY WEATHER RETURNS.
THEREAFTER...WARM TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RETURN BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST ON TRACK. STEADY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN FALLING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW YORK AND WESTERN
VERMONT THIS EVENING. RAINFALL MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS
REST OF AREA AT THIS TIME. EXPECT RAIN TO FILL IN ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ALONG SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGHS. SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.
TEMPS WILL NOT BE MOVING MUCH...WITH READINGS IN THE 40S EXCEPT
30S OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT AS DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION AND BECOMES GRADUALLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER TIME. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER ENERGY WILL
CAPTURE A DEVELOPING SFC LOW RIDING NORTHEAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...AND DRIVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD
INTO OUR AREA. INCREASING OMEGA/FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE LOW TRACK ALL ARGUE FOR CONTINUED CATEGORICAL POPS
(90-100%) THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
EASTWARD. AFTER A PERIOD OF EARLY EVENING SHOWERS...THE FAR
WEST...NAMELY THE SLV WILL TREND DRIER. LOWS QUITE CHILLY UNDER
CONTINUED NORTHERLY BREEZES...GENERALLY 35 TO 45 WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE 3000 FEET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT FRIDAY...BY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEP
UPPER CLOSED H5 TROUGH AND CAPTURED/OCCLUDING SFC LOW NEAR THE
GULF OF MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR AREA WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD.
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
VERMONT COUNTIES WHERE WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCH RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE LIKELY. THIS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN OUR RECENT
BOUT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES
(SEE HYDRO DISC BELOW).
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN CHILLY UNDER STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 40S FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
EASTWARD...THOUGH MILDER ACROSS THE SLV WHERE LACK OF DYNAMICAL
COOLING AFFECTS FROM PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW READINGS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...35 TO 45 WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AT THE
SUMMIT LEVEL ABOVE 2500-3000 FEET.
BY SUNDAY...DEEP UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO FILL AND BEGIN TO TRUDGE
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THUS SHOWERY WEATHER IN THE
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY END OVER TIME AS SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE. HIGHS A TAD MILDER FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S DACKS EAST...AND 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE SLV BY DAYS END
WHERE SOME SUN POSSIBLE LATE.
CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH
LOSES INFLUENCE AND IS REPLACED BY BROAD RIDGING IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES. SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY TREND PTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS LOWS BOTTOM OUT
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THRU
THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS REPLACES THE EXITING LOW FROM
THE WEEKEND. SOME CLDS FOR THE NE KINGDOM MONDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE PRECIP-FREE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA. FOR WED INTO FRI...MDLS DO BRING WARM FRNT ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE TOP OF UPPER RIDGE. THIS SETUP WILL FOCUS PRECIP
INTO THE REGION. SOME MDL TIMING/PLACEMENT AND AMT OF QPF POSSIBLE
AS FRNT MEANDERS THRU AREA. DIFFERENCES ARE DUE TO POTENTIAL TRW
ALONG BOUNDARY. WITH 925 TEMPS RANGING FROM +16C TO +22C AND 850
TEMPS +12C TO +17C...AMPLE INSTABILITY APPEARS AVAILABLE TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HRS. BY
FRIDAY...FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES
AS FRNT SHIFTS NORTHWARD. FOR TEMPS IN EXTENDED...STAYING CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GOING FROM THE 60S MONDAY TO THE LOW 80S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS AIRMASS SHIFTS FROM CAA ON WNW FLOW MONDAY TO
STRONG WAA MID-TO-END OF WEEK AS STRONG THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF
SITES DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND MIST/FOG
DUE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
EXCEPTION WILL BE MSS WHICH WILL BE MOSTLY VFR. WINDS MAINLY NORTH
AT 10-20 KTS...EXCEPT AROUND 10 KTS BETWEEN 00Z-12Z SATURDAY FOR
MSS/SLK/RUT.
OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND AS SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SUNDAY. A SLOW CLEARING TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 407 PM FRIDAY... UPPER/CLOSED LOW TO BRING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WHILE STABILITY WILL LIMIT EXCESSIVE HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES...36-48 HOUR TOTALS WILL NONETHELESS RANGE FROM 1.5-3.0
INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT...AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. LOCALLY RUN SSHP MODEL
HYDROGRAPHS SUGGEST THESE TOTALS WILL LIKELY BRING NUMEROUS SMALL
STREAMS TO BANKFULL...AND SEVERAL MAINSTEM RIVERS INTO FLOOD BY
SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. THUS A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...THE RIVERS OF MOST CONCERN WOULD BE
THE MISSISQUOI...LAMOILLE AND PASSUMPSIC IN VERMONT...AND THE
AUSABLE RIVER IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS IN
RAINFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS...MOST RIVER CRESTS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...LOOKING TO BE A PRETTY MISERABLE START TO
THE PRIME BOATING SEASON ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A STORM MORE TYPICAL
OF WINTER WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE FROM
TONIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO
35 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. FOR THAT REASON, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED
AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE WINDS FALL BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THESE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS, WITH
WAVES ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE ULTIMATELY BUILDING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6
FEET LATE SATURDAY. A STEADY RAIN AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S
ON SATURDAY WILL ADD TO THE MISERY.
THE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR BOATING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-031-034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...EVENSON/JN
HYDROLOGY...
MARINE...
000
FXUS61 KALY 242356
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
756 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL PROMOTE COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
A RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 755 PM EDT...RAIN CONTINUES TO COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS CVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVERSPREADS A
REGION OF LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW IS STARTING TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE FROM THE GULF OF
MAINE TO NEAR CAPE COD. THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN OF A PERSISTENT
STRATIFORM NATURE...UNLIKE THE HEAVY CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS
EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY EXPECTING
RAINFALL RATES AROUND ONE TO PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH PER
HOUR.
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE CHILLY FOR EVENING IN LATE MAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD 40S AND EVEN SOME UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FAVORABLE QG DYNAMICS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW OBTAINS A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT WITH HEIGHT. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HELPING TO
TRANSPORT ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
VIA A COLD CONVEYOR BELT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYNOPTIC
FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF AN
INCH...WITH RAINFALL RATES AGAIN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH PER
HOUR.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY INITIALLY DUE TO CAA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THEN HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT HANDLING
THE PROGRESSION/EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW/COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HAVE LARGELY TAKEN A BLENDED
APPROACH DURING THIS TIME FRAME...LEANING TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MAINTAINS A
NEGATIVE TILT SATURDAY...COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OFF
THE MASSACHUSETTS COAST AIDED BY A WEAK PV LOBE AND FAVORABLE QG
DYNAMICS. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ACT IN TANDEM TO ENHANCE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD CONVEYOR BELT. THIS
CONVEYOR BELT WILL HELP THROW BACK ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND PROMOTE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING VERTICALLY-STACKED WITH THE COASTAL LOW. THESE
FEATURES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FOR SUNDAY...WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE FROM HALF AN INCH IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TO TWO INCHES ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT
HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MEMORIAL DAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE NOVEMBER AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS WILL RETURN
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR MEMORIAL DAY GENERALLY IN LOW 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
LOW 30S TO LOW 40S.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE WEEKEND...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5-10 MPH FOR MONDAY.
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN PORTIONS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FROST ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND WITH A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE START...AND EVENTUALLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. STILL COOL MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THURSDAY AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. FAIR AND VERY WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES
HOLD.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW OR MID 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT 50 TO 60.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RAIN HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
SETTLES IN OVER COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. A MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT TO ALL OF THE TERMINALS. FLYING
CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY EXPECTED TO BE MVFR...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHEN PERSISTENT
MODERATE RAIN FALLS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
AFTER 06Z AND INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY AS BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WILL MENTION MVFR FOR NOW WITH TIME FOR
REFINEMENT IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES. OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING STATIONARY
ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KT WITH
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KT...THEN BECOMING STEADY AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 12 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO
30 KTS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NIGHT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
WED...VFR. MVFR PSBL WITH CHC PM SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE AN
ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GENERALLY
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5-10 MPH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RH LEVELS DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL BE ABOVE 30
PERCENT...WITH RH LEVELS DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 60-80 PERCENT AND NORMAL OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES BETWEEN 80-100
PERCENT. RH LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 35-55 PERCENT
RANGE WITH NORMAL OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STRATIFORM RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING THAT WILL BRING A HALF INCH TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS NORTH AND EAST.
ALTHOUGH THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS FROM
RECENT HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...RAINFALL RATES OF ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR
WILL ALLOW LOCAL WATERSHEDS ENOUGH TIME TO RECOVER WITH ONLY MODEST
WITHIN BANK RISES.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KBGM 242353
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
753 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY...NORTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL BE OVER OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL CAUSE COLD NIGHTS AND BREEZY DAYS. ALSO...A LOW
MOVING THOUGH NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
750 PM UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW PLAN, SO MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. MINS SHOULD
RANGE FROM 31 TO 36 DEGREES. HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY UP AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH, MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR FROST TO FORM.
4 PM UPDATE...
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR LOW CONTS TO PULL SLOWLY
EAST. BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN IS MIXED WITH SLEET AND SNOW AT
TIMES...MAKING FOR AN ALL TIME RECORD FOR LATEST SNOW RECORDED AT
BGM. SHRT TERM MODELS SHOW CONTD EWRD PROGRESS THRU THE NGT BRING
AND END TO THE PCPN FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST. PRBLM ARISES AS ENUF
DRY AIR GETS IN THAT SOME CLRG SEEMS LIKELY...ESP OVER THE WRN
ZONES...BRINGING THE PSBLTY OF FROST. WRKG AGAINST THE FROST WILL
BE THE WIND...WHICH IS FCSTD TO REMAIN AT OR ABV 10 KTS AT THE SFC
THRU THE NGT. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CAUTION AND POST AN ADVISORY
FOR STEUBEN CNTY...WHERE GRIDDED DATA SUGGEST SOME OF THE DEEPER
VLYS COULD GO LGT AND TEMPS APRCH 32F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS SLOWLY COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW MVMT OF THE UPR
LOW...IN FACT BACKING IT A BIT BRINGING PCPN BACK TO THE WEST ON
SAT. NAM IS STILL THE MOST OPTIMISTIC WITH THE GFS NOW SIDING WITH
THE ECMWF WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...BIT OF A DFCLT
FCST WITH A SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE CLDS WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
LRG DFRNC FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA...FROM SUN TO
COLD RAIN. OTR CNCRN IS THE CONTD THREAT OF FROST AND WHICH AREA
MAY BE AFFECTED. AS WITH TNGT...PSN OF THE LOW WILL HELP KEEP
WINDS UP IN MOST CLRD AREAS LIMITING THE CHANCE FOR FROST. XCPTN
MAY BE SUN NGT WHEN THE GRAD FINALLY RELAXS AS THE UPR LOW KICKS
EAST. SO...BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FROST MAY ACTUALLY BE
MEMORIAL DAY.
MODEL GUID WAS IN RSNBL AGREE EMT THRU THE PD LDG A HIER THAN NRML
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPS FCST. HWVR...STILL REMAIN TRICKY WITH A 10
TO 15 DEGREE HI TEMP DFRNC EASILY PSBL ACROSS THE AREA BOTH SAT
AND SUN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY WELL ADVERTISED WARM UP EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK AS BROAD
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS HOWEVER...FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING STALLED SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA WITH DEVELOPING
SHWRS/POSSIBLE THUNDER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST
RIDGE AXIS BUILDING FROM OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE MAINTAINED CHC
THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD BEFORE
ADVERTISING DRYING CONDITIONS BY LATE WEEK. INITIAL LOOK AT
DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR A NORTHWEST FLOW SEVERE CONVECTION SETUP WITH OUR
REGION RESIDING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY TO OUR SOUTHWEST. TOO EARLY FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT TO GET TOO EXCITED BUT TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS
THE TIMING NEARS. WITH FCST 850-HPA TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM WELL
INTO THE UPPER TEENS...FCST HIGHS BY THU AND FRI WILL LIKELY WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY PASSES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE
THROUGH THE AREA. IN GENERAL...LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HRS BEFORE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OCCURS AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS OF ELM AND ITH AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE SOME CLEARING
AT ELM NEAR 06Z. FOR ANY CLEARING THAT DOES WORK INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...FCST MODELS SHOW INCREASING CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED WITH MOIST
LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS. DEVELOPING CIGS SAT MORNING SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE VFR CATEGORY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN SOME TONIGHT
BEFORE STRENGTHENING ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. FOR BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS ARE LIKELY AT ALL SITES.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ022.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...CMG
000
FXUS61 KBUF 242344
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
744 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
MAINLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE COASTAL
LOW/S PRECIPITATION SHIELD STILL LINGERING BACK ACROSS LEWIS
COUNTY...AND AS SUCH HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS COUNTY FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. FURTHER WEST THE PRECIP HAS LARGELY TAPERED
OFF...THOUGH COULD STILL SEE A SHOWER BRUSH PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON
AND OSWEGO COUNTIES FOR A WHILE LONGER THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TONIGHT...WITH THE CLEARING TREND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK MAKING CONTINUED
EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OVER TIME...AND EVENTUALLY LEADING TO
CLEAR/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WEST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND CHILLY AIRMASS THAT IS IN PLACE...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CONCERN TONIGHT. THE DENSE CLOUD COVER THAT
PERSISTED FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN...WITH
READINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S. DESPITE SOME GRADIENT TONIGHT...FEEL WITH ONLY
A SHORT DISTANCE TO GO TO REACH FREEZING...A FREEZE WARNING STILL
LOOKS REASONABLE FOR OUR THREE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. DEPENDING ON
EXACTLY HOW MUCH WINDS SLACKEN TONIGHT IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT
OTHER FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...ALTHOUGH
THESE LOOK LESS LIKELY GIVEN THAT AT LEAST SOME GRADIENT IS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY...MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER LOW. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BACK IN FROM THE
EAST AND MAY IMPACT AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. BULK OF THE AREA
WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WITH COLD AIR MASS CENTERED OVER THE
AREA WE WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...ALTHOUGH
COOL WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT OVER TODAYS READINGS IN THE 30S AND
40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SITTING OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WITH A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION AROUND THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LARGELY BE CONFINED TO AREAS JUST TO OUR EAST...THOUGH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY BRUSH BY OUR NORTH COUNTRY. BY SUNDAY MORNING COLD AIR
UNDER THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BACK SLIGHTLY WESTWARD SUCH
THAT -2C AIR AT 850 HPA WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN FOOT HILLS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SNOW FLURRIES
MIXED IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
AWAY FROM THE NORTH COUNTRY MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE FOUND AND
COLD WITH A NORTHWEST WIND. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND THE CLOSED LOW
OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME SATURDAY NIGHT AS FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
CONCERN AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND THAT THE LIGHT WINDS
WILL LIMIT THE FROST FORMATION. CLOSER TO THE LAKES IS WHERE THE
WARMEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FOUND WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR
NIGHTTIME LOWS.
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY
LIFTS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MOVEMENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP OUR AREA DRY WITH LINGERING CLOUDS BRUSHING BY THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL
AGAIN BE FOUND ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND WITH 850 HPA
RANGING FROM +2 TO +4 OUR HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND WILL
AGAIN BE FOUND ACROSS THE CWA.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND WINDS BACKING TO MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. WHILE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SPOTTY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND INLAND NORTH COUNTRY THE LIGHTER WINDS AND RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FROST.
ON MONDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION.
SUBSIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A DRY MEMORIAL DAY AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH A BLUE SKY TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL FALL SHY OF NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE LOW...IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WHICH WILL BRING LOW RH VALUES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT MONDAY WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH BUILDING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE 12Z GFS/12Z CANADIAN OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF...WITH A PASSAGE TUESDAY...WHILE THE
EUROPEAN MODEL FOCUSES MORE UPON WEDNESDAY. WILL BRING LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH LOW DEWPOINTS
AND SEASONABLE LATE MAY TEMPERATURES.
AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WHILE
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
CAP ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS WE
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL
DIMINISH TO SOME LEFTOVER SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING...
WITH 5 KFT CIGS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN LINGERING ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE
WEST...LINGERING VFR/LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND
EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH UNLIMITED VFR
CONDITIONS THEN FOLLOWING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
UNSEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER LAKES REGION DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED COLD
AIR ALOFT...WITH A PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
SUSTAINING LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS. THESE WILL PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON LAKE ERIE AND THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH. THIS SAID...SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP ON LAKE ERIE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FURTHER EAST...THE MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY ON THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END SMALL ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS THERE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...WITH NO ISSUES FORESEEN FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ019>021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LOZ043>045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR/TMA
000
FXUS61 KALY 242123
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
523 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL PROMOTE COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 5 PM EDT...SHOWER COVERAGE HAS EXPANDED TO COVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS CVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVERSPREADS A REGION OF LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT. THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OF A PERSISTENT STRATIFORM
NATURE...UNLIKE THE HEAVY CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY EXPECT ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RAINFALL RATES UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THEIR PEAK FOR THE DAY...ONLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE LATE-FALL RATHER THAN LATE-SPRING.
TONIGHT...FAVORABLE QG DYNAMICS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS THE
UPPER LOW OBTAINS A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT WITH HEIGHT. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD HELPING TO THROW ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA VIA A COLD CONVEYER BELT. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH...WITH RAINFALL RATES
AGAIN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY INITIALLY DUE TO CAA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THEN HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT HANDLING
THE PROGRESSION/EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW/COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HAVE LARGELY TAKEN A BLENDED
APPROACH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...LEANING TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MAINTAINS A
NEGATIVE TILT SATURDAY...COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OFF
THE MASSACHUSETTS COAST AIDED BY A WEAK PV LOBE AND FAVORABLE QG
DYNAMICS. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ACT IN TANDEM TO ENHANCE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD CONVEYER BELT. THIS
CONVEYER BELT WILL HELP THROW BACK ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND PROMOTE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING VERTICALLY-STACKED WITH THE COASTAL LOW. THESE
FEATURES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FOR SUNDAY...WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE FROM HALF AN INCH IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TO TWO INCHES ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT
HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MEMORIAL DAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE NOVEMBER AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS WILL RETURN
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR MEMORIAL DAY GENERALLY IN LOW 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
LOW 30S TO LOW 40S.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE WEEKEND...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5-10 MPH FOR MONDAY.
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN PORTIONS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FROST ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND WITH A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE START...AND EVENTUALLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. STILL COOL MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THURSDAY AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. FAIR AND VERY WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES
HOLD.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW OR MID 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT 50 TO 60.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STEADIER RAIN HAS MOVED ACROSS THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT KPSF AS AS
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE TAFS FOR
SATURDAY SO HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH VFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS FM
12Z TO 18Z SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT AROUND 10 KT WITH
GUSTS 15 KT TO 20 KT...THEN JUST BECOME STEADY AT AROUND 10 KT
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY OUT OF THE NORTH
AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
WED...VFR. MVFR PSBL WITH CHC -SHRA/-TSRA DURING THE AFT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE AN
ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GENERALLY
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5-10 MPH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RH LEVELS DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL BE ABOVE 30
PERCENT...WITH RH LEVELS DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 60-80 PERCENT AND NORMAL OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES BETWEEN 80-100
PERCENT. RH LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 35-55 PERCENT
RANGE WITH NORMAL OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STRATIFORM RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL BRING A HALF INCH TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS NORTH AND EAST.
ALTHOUGH THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS FROM
RECENT HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...RAINFALL RATES OF ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR
WILL ALLOW LOCAL WATERSHEDS ENOUGH TIME TO RECOVER WITH ONLY MODEST
WITHIN BANK RISES.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL
000
FXUS61 KOKX 242119
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
519 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING WILL HAVE
A LOW DEVELOP ALONG IT. THE LOW DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY AND WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH BY MID WEEK...MOVING BRIEFLY TO
THE NORTH...THEN DROPPING BACK TO THE SOUTH BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
COLD FRONT PUSHING FARTHER EAST OF THE REGION. A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
HIGHER PVA ALOFT KEEPING SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME TONIGHT. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE AND KEEP MORE MIXING CONDITIONS IN
PLACE. A SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED FOR LOWS WHICH
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S.
THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
ALONG THE ATLANTIC FACING BEACHES OF LONG ISLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WHILE DEEPENING WITH A DIP IN THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS OUR
REGION. A MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY IS IN STORE ALONG WITH
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN WITH THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND COLD POOL
ALOFT. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS STARTS TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 40-50 KT DEVELOPS NEAR 925 MB AND WITH
EXPECTATION OF GOOD MIXING THE MAX GUST POTENTIAL COULD REACH 40-45
KT. THIS IS MOST PRONOUNCED WITH THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM
BUFKIT KEEPING IT MORE IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. INCREASED WIND GUSTS A
GOOD 10 KT ABOVE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND IS A FEW KTS BELOW
CRITERIA BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME SITES COULD SEE GUSTS IN
THE 40-45 KT RANGE SATURDAY...PROBABLY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY MUCAPE OF ALMOST 100 J/KG. THEREFORE...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND WITH THE MUCH COLDER TEMPS
ALOFT...HENCE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL.
A MAV/MET/NAM12 BLEND USED FOR HIGHS BUT ADJUSTED DOWNWARD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 IN URBAN NORTHEAST NEW
JERSEY.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...ADVECTIONS DECREASE IN EFFICIENCY WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW STACKING AND SURFACE LOW IN GULF OF MAINE HALTING IN
FURTHER DEEPENING...LOSING STRUCTURE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO MATERIALIZE WITH POPS GRADUALLY
LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. COLDER NIGHT THAN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MAV/MET BLEND USED ONCE AGAIN. LOWS FORECAST INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER CLOSED LOW
OPENS...EVENTUALLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS...WITH IT/S AXIS REMAINING TO THE WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. A WARM
FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST.
BY MID WEEK...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON HANDLING OF SFC FEATURES WITH
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES NOTED ALOFT. WILL FOLLOW WPC WITH THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME...WHICH LEANS TOWARD ECMWF. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COULD RIDE ALONG THE FRONT...IN THE NW
TO SE UPPER FLOW AS THE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...NOT TOO
SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE...BUT WILL
NEED TO INTRODUCE POPS LATE TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
WEAK LOW ON THE FRONT MOVES EAST WED AS THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE
NORTH. VORTICITY ADVECTION RIDES ALONG THE NW/SE UPPER FLOW...WITH
POTENTIAL HIGHER COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT MOVES EAST BY
FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. AS
SUCH...AT LEAST MINIMAL POPS WARRANTED WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE AT BEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPS STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AS COLD POOL SLOWLY LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS OF 50S AT NIGHT
AND 70S DURING THE DAY WILL SLOWLY WARM UP BY LATE WEEK AS RIDGE
AXIS MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS. TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...OR AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER/MID 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH FACING
SHORES LOOKS REASONABLE PER WPC/EC MOS LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES NEAR CAPE COD WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GULF OF ME TNGT AND
SAT.
NW WINDS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN WITH SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KT.
RAIN CONTINUES TO EXPAND NWD UP THE NJ COAST INTO THE HUDSON
VALLEY...SO THE CITY TERMINALS WILL RECEIVE A STEADY -RA INTO THE
EVE. WINDS WILL LIKELY DROP A LITTLE AS THE RAIN TRACKS THRU THE
AREA.
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KT TNGT...WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 30. GUSTS
MAY ONLY BE OCNL HOWEVER SO SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS INDICATED IN TAFS.
MVFR CONTINUES WITH -RA.
SUSTAINED NW WINDS NEAR 25 KT SAT. PEAK GUSTS MAY EXCEED 35 KT. CIGS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT ABV MVFR LVLS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GS IN SHRA SAT WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT.
ALTHOUGH TOPS WILL BE BLW 20K FT...ISOLD LIGHTNING POSSIBLE.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: -RA MAY PERSIST TIL 23-00Z.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY MAY BE CLOSER TO 5-6SM IF STEADIEST -RA
REMAINS W OF THE ARPT. -RA MAY PERSIST TIL 23-00Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY MAY BE CLOSER TO 5-6SM IF STEADIEST -RA
REMAINS W OF THE ARPT. -RA MAY PERSIST TIL 23-00Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: -RA MAY PERSIST TIL 00Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THRU 00Z. VSBY MAY BE
CLOSER TO 5-6SM IF STEADIEST -RA REMAINS W OF THE ARPT. -RA MAY
PERSIST TIL 00Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDITIONS MAY DROP BLW FCST LVLS IF -RA
FIELD EXPANDS FURTHER E THAN EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT AFTN...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR. SHOWERS. NW GUSTS
AROUND 35 KT.
.SUN...VFR. CHC SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MRNG. NW GUSTS 30-35KT. FCST
MAY CHANGE IF DEPARTURE OF STORM SLOWS.
.MON...VFR.
.TUE-WED...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE INVOF A WARM FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
FOG SHOULD BE BREAKING UP WITH VSBY IMPROVEMENT AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY
FROM THE NORTHWEST. NEXT ISSUE IS WINDS...SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT AND
GALES ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW DEEPENING IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. THE WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THAT LOW
WEAKENS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE
FOR THE SHORT TERM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. GUSTY NW FLOW BACKS IN TIME TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST
AS SPEEDS DIMINISH. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS TUE AND WED
WITH SOUTH TO EAST WINDS PREVAILING THIS TIME FRAME.
ROUGH OCEAN SEAS PER WAVE WATCH III EARLY SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE AS THE
STORM DEPARTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NO FLOODING
PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/PW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/PW
000
FXUS61 KALY 242104
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
504 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL PROMOTE COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 5 PM EDT...SHOWER COVERAGE HAS EXPANDED TO COVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS CVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVERSPREADS A REGION OF LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT. THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OF A PERSISTENT STRATIFORM
NATURE...UNLIKE THE HEAVY CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY EXPECT ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RAINFALL RATES UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THEIR PEAK FOR THE DAY...ONLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE LATE-FALL RATHER THAN LATE-SPRING.
TONIGHT...FAVORABLE QG DYNAMICS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS THE
UPPER LOW OBTAINS A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT WITH HEIGHT. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD HELPING TO THROW ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA VIA A COLD CONVEYER BELT. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH...WITH RAINFALL RATES
AGAIN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY INITIALLY DUE TO CAA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THEN HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT HANDLING
THE PROGRESSION/EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW/COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HAVE LARGELY TAKEN A BLENDED
APPROACH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...LEANING TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MAINTAINS A
NEGATIVE TILT SATURDAY...COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OFF
THE MASSACHUSETTS COAST AIDED BY A WEAK PV LOBE AND FAVORABLE QG
DYNAMICS. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ACT IN TANDEM TO ENHANCE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD CONVEYER BELT. THIS
CONVEYER BELT WILL HELP THROW BACK ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND PROMOTE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING VERTICALLY-STACKED WITH THE COASTAL LOW. THESE
FEATURES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FOR SUNDAY...WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE FROM HALF AN INCH IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TO TWO INCHES ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT
HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MEMORIAL DAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE NOVEMBER AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS WILL RETURN
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR MEMORIAL DAY GENERALLY IN LOW 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
LOW 30S TO LOW 40S.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE WEEKEND...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5-10 MPH FOR MONDAY.
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN PORTIONS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FROST ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMING SOON...
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STEADIER RAIN HAS MOVED ACROSS THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT KPSF AS AS
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE TAFS FOR
SATURDAY SO HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH VFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS FM
12Z TO 18Z SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT AROUND 10 KT WITH
GUSTS 15 KT TO 20 KT...THEN JUST BECOME STEADY AT AROUND 10 KT
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY OUT OF THE NORTH
AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
WED...VFR. MVFR PSBL WITH CHC -SHRA/-TSRA DURING THE AFT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE AN
ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GENERALLY
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5-10 MPH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RH LEVELS DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL BE ABOVE 30
PERCENT...WITH RH LEVELS DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 60-80 PERCENT AND NORMAL OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES BETWEEN 80-100
PERCENT. RH LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 35-55 PERCENT
RANGE WITH NORMAL OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STRATIFORM RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL BRING A HALF INCH TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS NORTH AND EAST.
ALTHOUGH THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS FROM
RECENT HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...RAINFALL RATES OF ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR
WILL ALLOW LOCAL WATERSHEDS ENOUGH TIME TO RECOVER WITH ONLY MODEST
WITHIN BANK RISES.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL
000
FXUS61 KOKX 242012
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
412 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING WILL HAVE
A LOW DEVELOP ALONG IT. THE LOW DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY AND WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH BY MID WEEK...MOVING BRIEFLY TO
THE NORTH...THEN DROPPING BACK TO THE SOUTH BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
COLD FRONT PUSHING FARTHER EAST OF THE REGION. A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
HIGHER PVA ALOFT KEEPING SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME TONIGHT. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE AND KEEP MORE MIXING CONDITIONS IN
PLACE. A SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED FOR LOWS WHICH
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S.
THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
ALONG THE ATLANTIC FACING BEACHES OF LONG ISLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WHILE DEEPENING WITH A DIP IN THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS OUR
REGION. A MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY IS IN STORE ALONG WITH
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN WITH THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND COLD POOL
ALOFT. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS STARTS TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 40-50 KT DEVELOPS NEAR 925 MB AND WITH
EXPECTATION OF GOOD MIXING THE MAX GUST POTENTIAL COULD REACH 40-45
KT. THIS IS MOST PRONOUNCED WITH THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM
BUFKIT KEEPING IT MORE IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. INCREASED WIND GUSTS A
GOOD 10 KT ABOVE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND IS A FEW KTS BELOW
CRITERIA BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME SITES COULD SEE GUSTS IN
THE 40-45 KT RANGE SATURDAY...PROBABLY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY MUCAPE OF ALMOST 100 J/KG. THEREFORE...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND WITH THE MUCH COLDER TEMPS
ALOFT...HENCE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL.
A MAV/MET/NAM12 BLEND USED FOR HIGHS BUT ADJUSTED DOWNWARD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 IN URBAN NORTHEAST NEW
JERSEY.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...ADVECTIONS DECREASE IN EFFICIENCY WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW STACKING AND SURFACE LOW IN GULF OF MAINE HALTING IN
FURTHER DEEPENING...LOSING STRUCTURE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO MATERIALIZE WITH POPS GRADUALLY
LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. COLDER NIGHT THAN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MAV/MET BLEND USED ONCE AGAIN. LOWS FORECAST INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER CLOSED LOW
OPENS...EVENTUALLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS...WITH IT/S AXIS REMAINING TO THE WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. A WARM
FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST.
BY MID WEEK...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON HANDLING OF SFC FEATURES WITH
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES NOTED ALOFT. WILL FOLLOW WPC WITH THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME...WHICH LEANS TOWARD ECMWF. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COULD RIDE ALONG THE FRONT...IN THE NW
TO SE UPPER FLOW AS THE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...NOT TOO
SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE...BUT WILL
NEED TO INTRODUCE POPS LATE TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
WEAK LOW ON THE FRONT MOVES EAST WED AS THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE
NORTH. VORTICITY ADVECTION RIDES ALONG THE NW/SE UPPER FLOW...WITH
POTENTIAL HIGHER COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT MOVES EAST BY
FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. AS
SUCH...AT LEAST MINIMAL POPS WARRANTED WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE AT BEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPS STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AS COLD POOL SLOWLY LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS OF 50S AT NIGHT
AND 70S DURING THE DAY WILL SLOWLY WARM UP BY LATE WEEK AS RIDGE
AXIS MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS. TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...OR AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER/MID 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH FACING
SHORES LOOKS REASONABLE PER WPC/EC MOS LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT OVER ERN LI AND CT TRACKS EWD AND OFFSHORE THIS AFTN.
WINDS VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE THRU THE DAY.
NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT THIS AFTN. SUSTAINED NEAR 20
KT TNGT...WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 30. GUSTS MAY ONLY BE OCNL
HOWEVER SO SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS INDICATED IN TAFS.
SUSTAINED NW WINDS NEAR 25 KT SAT. PEAK GUSTS MAY EXCEED 35 KT.
AREAS OF IFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CIGS GENERALLY AROUND 2K FT. SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL...WITH A STEADIER RAIN INVOF KSWF. CIGS COULD DROP TO
AROUND 1500 FT WITH ANY SHRA IN THE CITY.
-RA TNGT AND MVFR. CIGS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT ABV MVFR LVLS ON
SAT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GS IN SHRA SAT WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT.
ALTHOUGH TOPS WILL BE BLW 20K FT...ISOLD LIGHTNING POSSIBLE.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY MAY DROP TO AROUND 4SM IF HEAVIER SHRA
DEVELOP NEAR THE ARPT.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY MAY DROP TO AROUND 4SM IF HEAVIER SHRA
DEVELOP NEAR THE ARPT.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY MAY DROP TO AROUND 4SM IF HEAVIER SHRA
DEVELOP NEAR THE ARPT.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY MAY DROP TO AROUND 4SM IF HEAVIER SHRA
DEVELOP NEAR THE ARPT.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY MAY DROP TO AROUND 3SM IF HEAVIER SHRA
DEVELOP NEAR THE ARPT.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF ACTIVITY OVER THE
OCEAN ALLOWS FOR 1K FT CIGS TO LINGER.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT AFTN...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR. SHOWERS. NW GUSTS
AROUND 35 KT.
.SUN...VFR. CHC SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MRNG. NW GUSTS 30-35KT. FCST
MAY CHANGE IF DEPARTURE OF STORM SLOWS.
.MON...VFR.
.TUE-WED...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE INVOF A WARM FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
FOG SHOULD BE BREAKING UP WITH VSBY IMPROVEMENT AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY
FROM THE NORTHWEST. NEXT ISSUE IS WINDS...SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT AND
GALES ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW DEEPENING IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. THE WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THAT LOW
WEAKENS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE
FOR THE SHORT TERM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. GUSTY NW FLOW BACKS IN TIME TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST
AS SPEEDS DIMINISH. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS TUE AND WED
WITH SOUTH TO EAST WINDS PREVAILING THIS TIME FRAME.
ROUGH OCEAN SEAS PER WAVE WATCH III EARLY SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE AS THE
STORM DEPARTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NO FLOODING
PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/PW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/PW
000
FXUS61 KBTV 242007
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
407 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD...AND IN
SOME CASES FLOODING RAINFALL TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND BREEZY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH GRADUALLY MODERATE BY MONDAY AS DRY WEATHER RETURNS.
THEREAFTER...WARM TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RETURN BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK
FOR TONIGHT AS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION
AND BECOMES GRADUALLY NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER TIME. AS THIS
OCCURS...UPPER ENERGY WILL CAPTURE A DEVELOPING SFC LOW RIDING
NORTHEAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND DRIVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. INCREASING
OMEGA/FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING ALONG WITH FAVORABLE LOW TRACK ALL
ARGUE FOR CONTINUED CATEGORICAL POPS (90-100%) THROUGH THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. AFTER A
PERIOD OF EARLY EVENING SHOWERS...THE FAR WEST...NAMELY THE SLV
WILL TREND DRIER. LOWS QUITE CHILLY UNDER CONTINUED NORTHERLY
BREEZES...GENERALLY 35 TO 45 WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE ABOVE 3000 FEET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT FRIDAY...BY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEP
UPPER CLOSED H5 TROUGH AND CAPTURED/OCCLUDING SFC LOW NEAR THE
GULF OF MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR AREA WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD.
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
VERMONT COUNTIES WHERE WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCH RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE LIKELY. THIS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN OUR RECENT
BOUT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES
(SEE HYDRO DISC BELOW).
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN CHILLY UNDER STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 40S FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
EASTWARD...THOUGH MILDER ACROSS THE SLV WHERE LACK OF DYNAMICAL
COOLING AFFECTS FROM PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW READINGS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...35 TO 45 WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AT THE
SUMMIT LEVEL ABOVE 2500-3000 FEET.
BY SUNDAY...DEEP UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO FILL AND BEGIN TO TRUDGE
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THUS SHOWERY WEATHER IN THE
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY END OVER TIME AS SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE. HIGHS A TAD MILDER FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S DACKS EAST...AND 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE SLV BY DAYS END
WHERE SOME SUN POSSIBLE LATE.
CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH
LOSES INFLUENCE AND IS REPLACED BY BROAD RIDGING IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES. SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY TREND PTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS LOWS BOTTOM OUT
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THRU
THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS REPLACES THE EXITING LOW FROM
THE WEEKEND. SOME CLDS FOR THE NE KINGDOM MONDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE PRECIP-FREE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA. FOR WED INTO FRI...MDLS DO BRING WARM FRNT ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE TOP OF UPPER RIDGE. THIS SETUP WILL FOCUS PRECIP
INTO THE REGION. SOME MDL TIMING/PLACEMENT AND AMT OF QPF POSSIBLE
AS FRNT MEANDERS THRU AREA. DIFFERENCES ARE DUE TO POTENTIAL TRW
ALONG BOUNDARY. WITH 925 TEMPS RANGING FROM +16C TO +22C AND 850
TEMPS +12C TO +17C...AMPLE INSTABILITY APPEARS AVAILABLE TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HRS. BY
FRIDAY...FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES
AS FRNT SHIFTS NORTHWARD. FOR TEMPS IN EXTENDED...STAYING CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GOING FROM THE 60S MONDAY TO THE LOW 80S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS AIRMASS SHIFTS FROM CAA ON WNW FLOW MONDAY TO
STRONG WAA MID-TO-END OF WEEK AS STRONG THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF
SITES DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS LIGHT RAIN/FG.
WINDS MAINLY NNE 10-20KTS...W/ 10KTS SEEN BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY AT
TIMES FOR MSS/SLK/RUT.
OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SFC
LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLEARING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 407 PM FRIDAY... UPPER/CLOSED LOW TO BRING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WHILE STABILITY WILL LIMIT EXCESSIVE HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES...36-48 HOUR TOTALS WILL NONETHELESS RANGE FROM 1.5-3.0
INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT...AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. LOCALLY RUN SSHP MODEL
HYDROGRAPHS SUGGEST THESE TOTALS WILL LIKELY BRING NUMEROUS SMALL
STREAMS TO BANKFULL...AND SEVERAL MAINSTEM RIVERS INTO FLOOD BY
SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. THUS A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...THE RIVERS OF MOST CONCERN WOULD BE
THE MISSISQUOI...LAMOILLE AND PASSUMPSIC IN VERMONT...AND THE
AUSABLE RIVER IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS IN
RAINFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS...MOST RIVER CRESTS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...LOOKING TO BE A PRETTY MISERABLE START TO
THE PRIME BOATING SEASON ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A STORM MORE TYPICAL
OF WINTER WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE FROM
TONIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO
35 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. FOR THAT REASON, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED
AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE WINDS FALL BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THESE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS, WITH
WAVES ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE ULTIMATELY BUILDING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6
FEET LATE SATURDAY. A STEADY RAIN AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S
ON SATURDAY WILL ADD TO THE MISERY.
THE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR BOATING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-031-034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...EVENSON/JN
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...NASH
000
FXUS61 KBTV 241946
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
346 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS...WITH SOME
RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH SOME HIGH ELEVATION ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR UPDATES TO T/TD/POPS AS WE HEAD
INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
STEADY FROM HERE ON OUT...GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE 40S. DID OPT TO
RAISE POPS TO NEARLY CATEGORICAL IN ALL AREAS (I.E. > 80%) PER
LATEST RADAR COVERAGE AND HI-RES MODEL 0-12 HR OUTPUT. RAIN WILL
CERTAINLY NOT BE AS EXCESSIVE AS WE SAW YESTERDAY IN
SPOTS...NONETHELESS IT WILL BE A RAW...BREEZY AND WET DAY FOR MOST
LOCALES WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF POSSIBLE BY
DAY`S END. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
UPDATED FCST TO DROP TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ACRS THE SLV AND 1 TO
3 DEGREES OVER THE CPV. ALSO...MADE SEVERAL TWEAKS TO POPS BASED
ON CRNT RADAR DATA. THE COMBINATION OF LLVL CAA AND UPSLOPE FLW WL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL RAIN ACRS MOST OF THE FA TODAY. HIGHEST
POPS/QPF WL BE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND NORTHERN DACKS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WL BE BTWN 0.10 AND 0.40". TEMPS
WL REMAIN NEAR STEADY IN THE L/M 40S MTNS TO NEAR 50 SLV/CPV.
ALSO...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH CAN BE
ANTICIPATED...ADDING AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.
A LONG DURATION RAIN WITH SOME ACCUMULATING MTN
SNOW EVENT EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
BY SUNDAY...WITH SHARP RISES EXPECTED ON AREA WATERWAYS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN
CONUS THIS MORNING...AS BOTH NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ARE
PHASING. NOTICING LARGE PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC/SNE AS TROF BECMS NEGATIVELY TILTED. ALSO...DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT IS ROTATING ACRS THE SE CONUS. THESE FEATURES
COMBINED WITH A DUAL 25H JET STRUCTURE...SIMILAR TO A WINTER-TIME
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WL PRODUCE A COMPLEX WX SCENARIO ACRS OUR FA THIS WKND.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC A SHARP COLD FRNT IS MOVING ACRS OUR
CWA...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS WL EVENTUALLY
PUSH TWD THE COAST...WITH COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
RAINFALL...ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AND POST-FRONTAL
MOISTURE. EXPECT OCCASIONAL WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN TODAY...AS FA IS BTWN
SYSTEMS. GFS/NAM SHOW BEST 7H FGEN FORCING AND ASSOCIATED Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ACRS OUR CWA AFT 18Z. IN ADDITION...WARM MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH HEAVIEST QPF. WL
STILL MENTION CAT POPS...BUT QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE BTWN 0.10 AND
0.40" TODAY. TEMPS TODAY WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL STRUGGLE IN THE
U30S TO M40S MTNS TO L50S CPV/SLV TO NEAR 60F AT VSF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...POTENT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY WL ROUND MID/UPPER
LVL TROF BASE AND DEVELOP SFC LOW PRES NEAR CAPE COD BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WL QUICKLY BECM VERTICALLY AND NEGATIVELY
STACKED AS 7H/5H CIRCULATIONS DEEPEN AND BECOME CLOSED. THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WL ADVECT PLENTY OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BACK INTO OUR FA BTWN 850 AND 700MB...WHILE A VERY COLD AIR MASS IS
PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS VERY TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE RRQ OF 25H JET WL
PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP EVENT ACRS MOST OF
OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN DACKS INTO VT. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE
COASTAL SYSTEM WL HAVE A VERY WINTER-TIME THERMAL/JET STRUCTURE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION BAND OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
LAYER OMEGA FROM 18Z TODAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY. THIS BAND OF FAVORABLE
LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...WHICH
WL PRODUCE A LONG DURATION PRECIP EVENT. THE FGEN FORCING AND
DEFORMATION ZNS NW OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT
YOU SEE IN A WINTER TIME COASTAL...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE BACKSIDE
UPSLOPE PARAMETERS.
RAINFALL...EXPECT STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75"
FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 1.0 TO 2.0" CPV/EASTERN DACKS TO DOWNSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE NEK TO 1.50 TO 2.5"...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS
OF NORTH/CENTRAL VT BY 00Z MONDAY. THESE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER A 24 TO 48 PERIOD WL CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL RIVER AND LOW LYING FLOODING POSSIBLE.
NOTE...THIS WL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT WITH STEADY/MODERATE RAINFALL
RATES...WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM THURSDAY EVENT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF...THEREFORE NO
FLOOD WATCH WL BE ISSUED ATTM.
SNOWFALL...STILL HAVING A HARD TIME BELIEVING ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS ABOVE 2500 FT ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF PROFILES HAVE INDICATED
THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AS COLDER AIR IS
WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BLW 0C BY
TONIGHT...WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BLW 540DAM. THIS
COMBINED WITH SOME COOLING FROM STRONG DYNAMICS WL HELP TO PRODUCE
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACRS THE DACKS AND GREEN MTNS ABOVE
2500FT. WL TRY TO SHOW IN GRIDS...BUT IMPACTS WL BE MINIMAL GIVEN
THE HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THINKING A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
HEAVY WET SNOW WL BE POSSIBLE...WITH 6 INCHES OR SO FOR THE
SUMMITS FROM MT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS PARTS OF THE
EASTERN DACKS BY SUNDAY. BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS/WINDS...PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP AND A NORTH WIND WL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S SLV/CPV ON SAT/SUNDAY. THE TRENDS HAVE BEEN COOLER AND
COOLER IN THE GUIDANCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ON SAT
NIGHT...WITH PRECIP/CLOUDS...THINKING L/M 30S MTNS TO NEAR 40F CPV/SLV.
EXPECT A COLD/BLUSTERY AND WET DAY ON SUNDAY FOR MARATHON
ACTIVITIES IN BURLINGTON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THRU
THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS REPLACES THE EXITING LOW FROM
THE WEEKEND. SOME CLDS FOR THE NE KINGDOM MONDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE PRECIP-FREE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA. FOR WED INTO FRI...MDLS DO BRING WARM FRNT ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE TOP OF UPPER RIDGE. THIS SETUP WILL FOCUS PRECIP
INTO THE REGION. SOME MDL TIMING/PLACEMENT AND AMT OF QPF POSSIBLE
AS FRNT MEANDERS THRU AREA. DIFFERENCES ARE DUE TO POTENTIAL TRW
ALONG BOUNDARY. WITH 925 TEMPS RANGING FROM +16C TO +22C AND 850
TEMPS +12C TO +17C...AMPLE INSTABILITY APPEARS AVAILABLE TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HRS. BY
FRIDAY...FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES
AS FRNT SHIFTS NORTHWARD. FOR TEMPS IN EXTENDED...STAYING CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GOING FROM THE 60S MONDAY TO THE LOW 80S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS AIRMASS SHIFTS FROM CAA ON WNW FLOW MONDAY TO
STRONG WAA MID-TO-END OF WEEK AS STRONG THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF
SITES DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS LIGHT RAIN/FG.
WINDS MAINLY NNE 10-20KTS...W/ 10KTS SEEN BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY AT
TIMES FOR MSS/SLK/RUT.
OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SFC
LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLEARING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...A LONG DURATION MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
IS ANTICIPATED FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES
ON LARGE STEM RIVERS. EXPECT STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM
0.25 TO 0.75" FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 1.0 TO 2.0" CPV/EASTERN
DACKS TO DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NEK TO 1.50 TO 2.5"...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS OF NORTH/CENTRAL VT BY 00Z MONDAY.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RECENT RAIN FROM CONVECTION WL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL MINOR LOW LYING FLOODING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL RIVERS TO APPROACH FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY. NO FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT IF CRNT TRENDS CONTINUE
ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH MAYBE NEEDED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...LOOKING TO BE A PRETTY MISERABLE START TO
THE PRIME BOATING SEASON ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A STORM MORE TYPICAL
OF WINTER WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE FROM
TONIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO
35 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. FOR THAT REASON, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED
AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE WINDS FALL BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THESE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS, WITH
WAVES ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE ULTIMATELY BUILDING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6
FEET LATE SATURDAY. A STEADY RAIN AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S
ON SATURDAY WILL ADD TO THE MISERY.
THE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR BOATING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-031-034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...EVENSON/JN
HYDROLOGY...BTV
MARINE...NASH
000
FXUS61 KBUF 241936
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
336 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
MAINLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION PUSHING THROUGH
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. SOME LINGERING VERY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE STILL CONTINUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND
EVEN AS FAR WEST AS THE GENESEE VALLEY. CLEARING TREND HAS BEEN
NON-EXISTENT THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS CLEARING NOW BEGINNING TO COME ONSHORE INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. THIS TREND WOULD SUGGEST THAT
MOST OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WILL SEE CLEARING BEFORE SUNSET THIS
EVENING...BUT MOST OTHER AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOUDY INTO THIS
EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CONCERN TONIGHT. DENSE CLOUD COVER HAS HELD
TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TIER STILL IN THE 30S. DESPITE SOME GRADIENT TONIGHT...FEEL WITH
ONLY A FEW DEGREES TO GO TO REACH FREEZING...A FREEZING WARNING
LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE THREE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AND HOW MUCH WINDS
SLACKEN TONIGHT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OTHER FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
MIGHT BE NEEDED...ALTHOUGH FROST DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LESS LIKELY
WITH AT LEAST SOME GRADIENT EXPECTED.
SATURDAY...MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER LOW. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BACK IN FROM THE
EAST AND MAY IMPACT AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. BULK OF THE AREA
WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WITH COLD AIR MASS CENTERED OVER THE
AREA WE WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...ALTHOUGH
COOL WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT OVER TODAYS READINGS IN THE 30S AND
40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SITTING OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WITH A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION AROUND THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LARGELY BE CONFINED TO AREAS JUST TO OUR EAST...THOUGH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY BRUSH BY OUR NORTH COUNTRY. BY SUNDAY MORNING COLD AIR
UNDER THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BACK SLIGHTLY WESTWARD SUCH
THAT -2C AIR AT 850 HPA WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN FOOT HILLS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SNOW FLURRIES
MIXED IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
AWAY FROM THE NORTH COUNTRY MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE FOUND AND
COLD WITH A NORTHWEST WIND. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND THE CLOSED LOW
OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME SATURDAY NIGHT AS FRIDAY
NIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
CONCERN AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND THAT THE LIGHT WINDS
WILL LIMIT THE FROST FORMATION. CLOSER TO THE LAKES IS WHERE THE
WARMEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FOUND WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR
NIGHTTIME LOWS.
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY
LIFTS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MOVEMENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP OUR AREA DRY WITH LINGERING CLOUDS BRUSHING BY THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL
AGAIN BE FOUND ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND WITH 850 HPA
RANGING FROM +2 TO +4 OUR HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND WILL
AGAIN BE FOUND ACROSS THE CWA.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND WINDS BACKING TO MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. WHILE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SPOTTY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND INLAND NORTH COUNTRY THE LIGHTER WINDS AND RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FROST.
ON MONDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION.
SUBSIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A DRY MEMORIAL DAY AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH A BLUE SKY TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL FALL SHY OF NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE LOW...IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WHICH WILL BRING LOW RH VALUES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT MONDAY WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY...WITH BUILDING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE 12Z GFS/12Z CANADIAN OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF...WITH A PASSAGE TUESDAY...WHILE THE
EUROPEAN MODEL FOCUSES MORE UPON WEDNESDAY. WILL BRING LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH LOW DEWPOINTS
AND SEASONABLE LATE MAY TEMPERATURES.
AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WHILE
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
CAP ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS WE
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE DEPARTED
COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. IFR CIGS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EVENING...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR...THEN SCATTER
OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
THIN OUT TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS GENERAL TREND WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
THAT WILL BE STATIONED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
UNSEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER LAKES REGION AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING WITHIN A DEEP TROUGH AXIS. EFFICIENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SUSTAINING LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ON LAKE ERIE AND THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO...
BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP
IN LAKE ERIE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ON THE
EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO THEREFORE MAINTAINING THE LOW END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THERE.
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES WILL IMPROVE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...WITH NO MARINE ISSUES FORESEEN
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ019>021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030-042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LOZ043>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
000
FXUS61 KBTV 241930
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS...WITH SOME
RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH SOME HIGH ELEVATION ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR UPDATES TO T/TD/POPS AS WE HEAD
INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
STEADY FROM HERE ON OUT...GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE 40S. DID OPT TO
RAISE POPS TO NEARLY CATEGORICAL IN ALL AREAS (I.E. > 80%) PER
LATEST RADAR COVERAGE AND HI-RES MODEL 0-12 HR OUTPUT. RAIN WILL
CERTAINLY NOT BE AS EXCESSIVE AS WE SAW YESTERDAY IN
SPOTS...NONETHELESS IT WILL BE A RAW...BREEZY AND WET DAY FOR MOST
LOCALES WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF POSSIBLE BY
DAY`S END. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
UPDATED FCST TO DROP TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ACRS THE SLV AND 1 TO
3 DEGREES OVER THE CPV. ALSO...MADE SEVERAL TWEAKS TO POPS BASED
ON CRNT RADAR DATA. THE COMBINATION OF LLVL CAA AND UPSLOPE FLW WL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL RAIN ACRS MOST OF THE FA TODAY. HIGHEST
POPS/QPF WL BE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND NORTHERN DACKS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WL BE BTWN 0.10 AND 0.40". TEMPS
WL REMAIN NEAR STEADY IN THE L/M 40S MTNS TO NEAR 50 SLV/CPV.
ALSO...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH CAN BE
ANTICIPATED...ADDING AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.
A LONG DURATION RAIN WITH SOME ACCUMULATING MTN
SNOW EVENT EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
BY SUNDAY...WITH SHARP RISES EXPECTED ON AREA WATERWAYS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN
CONUS THIS MORNING...AS BOTH NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ARE
PHASING. NOTICING LARGE PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC/SNE AS TROF BECMS NEGATIVELY TILTED. ALSO...DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT IS ROTATING ACRS THE SE CONUS. THESE FEATURES
COMBINED WITH A DUAL 25H JET STRUCTURE...SIMILAR TO A WINTER-TIME
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WL PRODUCE A COMPLEX WX SCENARIO ACRS OUR FA THIS WKND.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC A SHARP COLD FRNT IS MOVING ACRS OUR
CWA...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS WL EVENTUALLY
PUSH TWD THE COAST...WITH COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
RAINFALL...ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AND POST-FRONTAL
MOISTURE. EXPECT OCCASIONAL WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN TODAY...AS FA IS BTWN
SYSTEMS. GFS/NAM SHOW BEST 7H FGEN FORCING AND ASSOCIATED Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ACRS OUR CWA AFT 18Z. IN ADDITION...WARM MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH HEAVIEST QPF. WL
STILL MENTION CAT POPS...BUT QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE BTWN 0.10 AND
0.40" TODAY. TEMPS TODAY WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL STRUGGLE IN THE
U30S TO M40S MTNS TO L50S CPV/SLV TO NEAR 60F AT VSF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...POTENT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY WL ROUND MID/UPPER
LVL TROF BASE AND DEVELOP SFC LOW PRES NEAR CAPE COD BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WL QUICKLY BECM VERTICALLY AND NEGATIVELY
STACKED AS 7H/5H CIRCULATIONS DEEPEN AND BECOME CLOSED. THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WL ADVECT PLENTY OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BACK INTO OUR FA BTWN 850 AND 700MB...WHILE A VERY COLD AIR MASS IS
PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS VERY TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE RRQ OF 25H JET WL
PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP EVENT ACRS MOST OF
OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN DACKS INTO VT. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE
COASTAL SYSTEM WL HAVE A VERY WINTER-TIME THERMAL/JET STRUCTURE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION BAND OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
LAYER OMEGA FROM 18Z TODAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY. THIS BAND OF FAVORABLE
LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...WHICH
WL PRODUCE A LONG DURATION PRECIP EVENT. THE FGEN FORCING AND
DEFORMATION ZNS NW OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT
YOU SEE IN A WINTER TIME COASTAL...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE BACKSIDE
UPSLOPE PARAMETERS.
RAINFALL...EXPECT STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75"
FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 1.0 TO 2.0" CPV/EASTERN DACKS TO DOWNSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE NEK TO 1.50 TO 2.5"...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS
OF NORTH/CENTRAL VT BY 00Z MONDAY. THESE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER A 24 TO 48 PERIOD WL CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL RIVER AND LOW LYING FLOODING POSSIBLE.
NOTE...THIS WL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT WITH STEADY/MODERATE RAINFALL
RATES...WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM THURSDAY EVENT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF...THEREFORE NO
FLOOD WATCH WL BE ISSUED ATTM.
SNOWFALL...STILL HAVING A HARD TIME BELIEVING ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS ABOVE 2500 FT ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF PROFILES HAVE INDICATED
THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AS COLDER AIR IS
WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BLW 0C BY
TONIGHT...WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BLW 540DAM. THIS
COMBINED WITH SOME COOLING FROM STRONG DYNAMICS WL HELP TO PRODUCE
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACRS THE DACKS AND GREEN MTNS ABOVE
2500FT. WL TRY TO SHOW IN GRIDS...BUT IMPACTS WL BE MINIMAL GIVEN
THE HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THINKING A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
HEAVY WET SNOW WL BE POSSIBLE...WITH 6 INCHES OR SO FOR THE
SUMMITS FROM MT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS PARTS OF THE
EASTERN DACKS BY SUNDAY. BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS/WINDS...PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP AND A NORTH WIND WL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S SLV/CPV ON SAT/SUNDAY. THE TRENDS HAVE BEEN COOLER AND
COOLER IN THE GUIDANCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ON SAT
NIGHT...WITH PRECIP/CLOUDS...THINKING L/M 30S MTNS TO NEAR 40F CPV/SLV.
EXPECT A COLD/BLUSTERY AND WET DAY ON SUNDAY FOR MARATHON
ACTIVITIES IN BURLINGTON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THRU
THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS REPLACES THE EXITING LOW FROM
THE WEEKEND. SOME CLDS FOR THE NE KINGDOM MONDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE PRECIP-FREE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA. FOR WED INTO FRI...MDLS DO BRING WARM FRNT ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE TOP OF UPPER RIDGE. THIS SETUP WILL FOCUS PRECIP
INTO THE REGION. SOME MDL TIMING/PLACEMENT AND AMT OF QPF POSSIBLE
AS FRNT MEANDERS THRU AREA. DIFFERENCES ARE DUE TO POTENTIAL TRW
ALONG BOUNDARY. WITH 925 TEMPS RANGING FROM +16C TO +22C AND 850
TEMPS +12C TO +17C...AMPLE INSTABILITY APPEARS AVAILABLE TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HRS. BY
FRIDAY...FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES
AS FRNT SHIFTS NORTHWARD. FOR TEMPS IN EXTENDED...STAYING CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GOING FROM THE 60S MONDAY TO THE LOW 80S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS AIRMASS SHIFTS FROM CAA ON WNW FLOW MONDAY TO
STRONG WAA MID-TO-END OF WEEK AS STRONG THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF
SITES DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS LIGHT RAIN/FG.
WINDS MAINLY NNE 10-20KTS...W/ 10KTS SEEN BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY AT
TIMES FOR MSS/SLK/RUT.
OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SFC
LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLEARING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...A LONG DURATION MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
IS ANTICIPATED FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES
ON LARGE STEM RIVERS. EXPECT STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM
0.25 TO 0.75" FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 1.0 TO 2.0" CPV/EASTERN
DACKS TO DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NEK TO 1.50 TO 2.5"...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS OF NORTH/CENTRAL VT BY 00Z MONDAY.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RECENT RAIN FROM CONVECTION WL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL MINOR LOW LYING FLOODING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL RIVERS TO APPROACH FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY. NO FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT IF CRNT TRENDS CONTINUE
ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH MAYBE NEEDED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-031-034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...EVENSON/JN
HYDROLOGY...JMG
000
FXUS61 KBGM 241856
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
256 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY...NORTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL BE OVER OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL GIVE COLD NIGHTS AND BREEZY DAYS. ALSO...A LOW
MOVING THOUGH NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR LOW CONTS TO PULL SLOWLY EAST. BACK
EDGE OF THE PCPN IS MIXED WITH SLEET AND SNOW AT TIMES...MAKING
FOR AN ALL TIME RECORD FOR LATEST SNOW RECORDED AT BGM. SHRT TERM
MODELS SHOW CONTD EWRD PROGRESS THRU THE NGT BRING AND END TO THE
PCPN FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST. PRBLM ARISES AS ENUF DRY AIR GETS
IN THAT SOME CLRG SEEMS LIKELY...ESP OVER THE WRN ZONES...BRINGING
THE PSBLTY OF FROST. WRKG AGAINST THE FROST WILL BE THE
WIND...WHICH IS FCSTD TO REMAIN AT OR ABV 10 KTS AT THE SFC THRU
THE NGT. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CAUTION AND POST AN ADVISORY FOR
STEUBEN CNTY...WHERE GRIDDED DATA SUGGEST SOME OF THE DEEPER VLYS
COULD GO LGT AND TEMPS APRCH 32F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS SLOWLY COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW MVMT OF THE UPR
LOW...IN FACT BACKING IT A BIT BRINGING PCPN BACK TO THE WEST ON
SAT. NAM IS STILL THE MOST OPTIMISTIC WITH THE GFS NOW SIDING WITH
THE ECMWF WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...BIT OF A DFCLT
FCST WITH A SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE CLDS WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
LRG DFRNC FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA...FROM SUN TO
COLD RAIN. OTR CNCRN IS THE CONTD THREAT OF FROST AND WHICH AREA
MAY BE AFFECTED. AS WITH TNGT...PSN OF THE LOW WILL HELP KEEP
WINDS UP IN MOST CLRD AREAS LIMITING THE CHANCE FOR FROST. XCPTN
MAY BE SUN NGT WHEN THE GRAD FINALLY RELAXS AS THE UPR LOW KICKS
EAST. SO...BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FROST MAY ACTUALLY BE
MEMORIAL DAY.
MODEL GUID WAS IN RSNBL AGREE EMT THRU THE PD LDG A HIER THAN NRML
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPS FCST. HWVR...STILL REMAIN TRICKY WITH A 10
TO 15 DEGREE HI TEMP DFRNC EASILY PSBL ACROSS THE AREA BOTH SAT
AND SUN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY WELL ADVERTISED WARM UP EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK AS BROAD
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS HOWEVER...FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING STALLED SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA WITH DEVELOPING
SHWRS/POSSIBLE THUNDER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST
RIDGE AXIS BUILDING FROM OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE MAINTAINED CHC
THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD BEFORE
ADVERTISING DRYING CONDITIONS BY LATE WEEK. INITIAL LOOK AT
DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR A NORTHWEST FLOW SEVERE CONVECTION SETUP WITH OUR
REGION RESIDING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY TO OUR SOUTHWEST. TOO EARLY FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT TO GET TOO EXCITED BUT TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS
THE TIMING NEARS. WITH FCST 850-HPA TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM WELL
INTO THE UPPER TEENS...FCST HIGHS BY THU AND FRI WILL LIKELY WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY PASSES.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE
THROUGH THE AREA. IN GENERAL...LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HRS BEFORE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OCCURS AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS OF ELM AND ITH AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE SOME CLEARING
AT ELM NEAR 06Z. FOR ANY CLEARING THAT DOES WORK INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...FCST MODELS SHOW INCREASING CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED WITH MOIST
LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS. DEVELOPING CIGS SAT MORNING SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE VFR CATEGORY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN SOME TONIGHT
BEFORE STRENGTHENING ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. FOR BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS ARE LIKELY AT ALL SITES.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ022.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...CMG
000
FXUS61 KBGM 241827
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
227 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND...IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT`S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY...DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AS
THIS DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...SHOWERS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY
RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. A
STEADY WARMING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...THE FIRST SUMMER HOLIDAY IS STARTING AS ANYTHING
BUT WITH A RPT OF SLEET IN STEUBEN COUNTY AND TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPR 30S DURING THE LATE MRNG DESPITE THE CALENDAR DATE. WHILE
I XPCT THE TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY RISE A FEW DEGREES...HAVE ADJUSTED
THE AFTN FCST MAX WELL DOWNWARD. ADJUSTED THE POP TO BETTER
REPRESENT THE AREA OF SHWRS...BUT STILL CONT CHANCE THRU THE AFTN
WITH THE CAA AND INSTABILITY. PRVS DISC BLO.
4 AM UPDATE... SFC COLD FRNT WAS SLICING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THIS MRNG...HAVING REACHED OUR SERN ZNS AS OF THIS WRITING. THE
FRNT WILL HAVE CLEARED THE ENTIRE FA BY 10-11Z. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE UPR 30S-MID 40S OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA
ATTM...OWING TO STG LOW-LVL CAA POST-FROPA. AS FAR AS PCPN IS
CONCERNED...STEADIER SHRA HAVE NOW PUSHED WELL TO OUR E...AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE HAS BEEN SWEPT TWDS NEW ENG/NJ/NYC. HOWEVER...SCTD
-SHRA ARE STILL PREVALENT ALL THE WAY BACK TO WRN NY/SRN
ONT...WITH A SIG UPR-LVL TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE OH VLY ATTM.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY...-SHRA WILL LIKELY GROW IN
COVERAGE...SPCLY BY THIS AFTN...AS STG DPVA WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TDY...ALG WITH COOLING MID-LVL TEMPS. WE HAVE LOW CHC POPS/SCTD
VERBIAGE THIS AM...GOING TO LIKELY/CAT POPS BY EARLY AFTN FOR MOST
PLACES...PARTICULARLY OUR ERN ZNS.
TEMPS TDY WILL BE SOME 25-35 DEGS COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 40S ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
ONLY HOVER IN THE 50S MOST OTHER PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE... TEMPS WILL BE COLD TNT...WITH 30S TO LWR 40S
EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. NORMALLY...THIS WOULD BE AN EASY SITN FOR A
FROST ADVSY ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...ONLY OUR WRN ZNS ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE ANY CLEARING LATE TNT. ALSO...WINDS SHOULD STAY UP OVER THE
ENTIRE RGN...AS THE PRES GRADIENT STAYS TIGHT. THESE TWO FACTORS
SHOULD COMBINE TO MAKE FROST FORMATION UNLIKELY. IN FACT...OUR ERN
ZNS MAY WELL SEE CONTINUED SHWR ACTIVITY...AT LEAST THROUGH THE
EVE HRS.
SAT...ALTHOUGH SOME SCTD -SHRA MAY HANG ON OVER ERN SXNS...THEY
SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD...WITH THE AMPLIFIED ERN U.S. UPR TROUGH
STARTING TO PUSH SLOWLY EWD. ALSO...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST BREAKS
OF SUNSHINE MOST AREAS...PARTICULARLY OUT ACRS THE FINGER LKS RGN.
TEMPS...ALTHOUGH STAYING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND...REACHING THE MID 50S-LWR 60S IN
THE AFTN.
SAT NGT LOOKS COLD AGN...BUT ALSO STILL FAIRLY BREEZY...WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS SLOW TO BUILD IN. LTR SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO ASCERTAIN
IF THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF ENUF TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION. AT THIS
JUNCTURE...THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY.
SUN AND SUN NGT...THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE...WITH MORE
SUNSHINE ON SUN...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUN NGT. TEMPS WILL
REBOUND INTO THE 60S SUN AFTN...BUT ARE LIKELY TO DROP SHARPLY
AFTER SUNSET. BY SUN NGT/EARLY MON...BETTER RADIATING CONDS ARE
FORESEEN...SO FROST COULD DVLP IN OUR TYPICALLY COLDER AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY WELL ADVERTISED WARM UP EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK AS BROAD
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS HOWEVER...FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING STALLED SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA WITH DEVELOPING
SHWRS/POSSIBLE THUNDER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST
RIDGE AXIS BUILDING FROM OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE MAINTAINED CHC
THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD BEFORE
ADVERTISING DRYING CONDITIONS BY LATE WEEK. INITIAL LOOK AT
DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR A NORTHWEST FLOW SEVERE CONVECTION SETUP WITH OUR
REGION RESIDING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY TO OUR SOUTHWEST. TOO EARLY FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT TO GET TOO EXCITED BUT TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS
THE TIMING NEARS. WITH FCST 850-HPA TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM WELL
INTO THE UPPER TEENS...FCST HIGHS BY THU AND FRI WILL LIKELY WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE THE FRONT FINALLY PASSES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE
THROUGH THE AREA. IN GENERAL...LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HRS BEFORE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OCCURS AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS OF ELM AND ITH AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE SOME CLEARING
AT ELM NEAR 06Z. FOR ANY CLEARING THAT DOES WORK INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...FCST MODELS SHOW INCREASING CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED WITH MOIST
LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS. DEVELOPING CIGS SAT MORNING SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE VFR CATEGORY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN SOME TONIGHT
BEFORE STRENGTHENING ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. FOR BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS ARE LIKELY AT ALL SITES.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MLJ
NEAR TERM...DGM/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...CMG
000
FXUS61 KOKX 241747
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
147 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AS THE FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
THEN LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COLD
FRONT STILL NEEDS TO CROSS THROUGH EASTERN SECTIONS. EXPECTING
THIS TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...JUST SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.
AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTH TO THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. WITH THE FRONT
MOVEMENT...EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE THE WIND SHIFT BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND
COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN FALL WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES OF LONG ISLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING
EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...AS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE AREA...A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION FROM SHOWERS TO MORE OF A
STRATIFORM RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POPS
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN LIKELY/CATEGORICAL.
ONCE AGAIN...FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S...WITH THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND THE
COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN. THIS WILL BE DUE TO COLD AIR FILTERING
IN ON A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT
OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS
WEEKEND. LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME
RATHER BRISK BY SAT AFTERNOON...FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH INTO
EARLY SAT EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
EITHER. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER
ERN CT/LONG ISLAND VIA SOME ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS DRY SLOT
PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY 55-60 AND DROPPING INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT.
STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY SAT NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS E OF NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY/ISOLD IN
NATURE ON SUNDAY VIA CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL COOL AND BREEZY ON SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S...AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
DRY WX AND A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF NYC.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT OVER ERN LI AND CT TRACKS EWD AND OFFSHORE THIS AFTN.
WINDS VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE THRU THE DAY.
NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT THIS AFTN. SUSTAINED NEAR 20
KT TNGT...WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 30. GUSTS MAY ONLY BE OCNL
HOWEVER SO SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS INDICATED IN TAFS.
SUSTAINED NW WINDS NEAR 25 KT SAT. PEAK GUSTS MAY EXCEED 35 KT.
AREAS OF IFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CIGS GENERALLY AROUND 2K FT. SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL...WITH A STEADIER RAIN INVOF KSWF. CIGS COULD DROP TO
AROUND 1500 FT WITH ANY SHRA IN THE CITY.
-RA TNGT AND MVFR. CIGS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT ABV MVFR LVLS ON
SAT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GS IN SHRA SAT WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT.
ALTHOUGH TOPS WILL BE BLW 20K FT...ISOLD LIGHTNING POSSIBLE.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY MAY DROP TO AROUND 4SM IF HEAVIER SHRA
DEVELOP NEAR THE ARPT.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY MAY DROP TO AROUND 4SM IF HEAVIER SHRA
DEVELOP NEAR THE ARPT.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY MAY DROP TO AROUND 4SM IF HEAVIER SHRA
DEVELOP NEAR THE ARPT.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY MAY DROP TO AROUND 4SM IF HEAVIER SHRA
DEVELOP NEAR THE ARPT.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY MAY DROP TO AROUND 3SM IF HEAVIER SHRA
DEVELOP NEAR THE ARPT.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF ACTIVITY OVER THE
OCEAN ALLOWS FOR 1K FT CIGS TO LINGER.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT AFTN...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR. SHOWERS. NW GUSTS
AROUND 35 KT.
.SUN...VFR. CHC SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MRNG. NW GUSTS 30-35KT. FCST
MAY CHANGE IF DEPARTURE OF STORM SLOWS.
.MON...VFR.
.TUE-WED...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE INVOF A WARM FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
FOG CONTINUES WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 MILE ACROSS
EASTERN WATERS. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL 4PM. PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE ON THE CENTRAL OCEAN WATERS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
LONG ISLAND SOUND. EXPECTING THE FOG TO BREAK UP AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH GREATER NW WINDS TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON.
SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NON-OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND...SHOULD STRENGTHEN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN SOUND AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS...HAVE WENT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHERE GUSTS MAY
FALL JUST SHORT OF GALES. IT IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE SMALL CRAFT IS
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GALES MAY BE NEEDED.
CONDITIONS FALL BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF ON THE OCEAN AND THEN ERN SOUND/BAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE VIA BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MOST REMAINING SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN RAIN
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH FOR SOME EASTERN SECTIONS. FOR THE MOST PART...SMALL
STREAM LEVELS HAVE STABILIZED...WITH ONLY MINOR RISES EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
AROUND 0.2-0.3 OF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT - WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO DECREASE
TO UNDER 1 INCH BY LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF MINOR
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...THEN
ONLY MINIMAL QPF IN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ335-338-345.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
340-350.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ330-340-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JM/BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BC/GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV
000
FXUS61 KOKX 241741
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
141 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AS THE FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
THEN LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HOURLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED WITH A WEIGHTED 3/4 12Z NAM12 AND 1/4
LAV SOLUTION TO REPRESENT A COOLING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
DEWPOINTS ALSO INCORPORATED AN EVEN BLEND OF 12Z NAM12 AND LAVS.
THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SO WORDING WAS
ADJUSTED TO SHOW INTERMITTENT WITH SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE ISOLATED AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE EASTERN MOST SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THIS INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. WITH
THE FRONT MOVEMENT...EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE THE WIND
SHIFT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND
COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN FALL WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES OF LONG ISLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING
EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...AS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE AREA...A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION FROM SHOWERS TO MORE OF A
STRATIFORM RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POPS
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN LIKELY/CATEGORICAL.
ONCE AGAIN...FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S...WITH THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND THE
COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN. THIS WILL BE DUE TO COLD AIR FILTERING
IN ON A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT
OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS
WEEKEND. LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME
RATHER BRISK BY SAT AFTERNOON...FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH INTO
EARLY SAT EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
EITHER. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER
ERN CT/LONG ISLAND VIA SOME ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS DRY SLOT
PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY 55-60 AND DROPPING INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT.
STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY SAT NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS E OF NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY/ISOLD IN
NATURE ON SUNDAY VIA CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL COOL AND BREEZY ON SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S...AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
DRY WX AND A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF NYC.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT OVER ERN LI AND CT TRACKS EWD AND OFFSHORE THIS AFTN.
WINDS VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE THRU THE DAY.
NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT THIS AFTN. SUSTAINED NEAR 20
KT TNGT...WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 30. GUSTS MAY ONLY BE OCNL
HOWEVER SO SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS INDICATED IN TAFS.
SUSTAINED NW WINDS NEAR 25 KT SAT. PEAK GUSTS MAY EXCEED 35 KT.
AREAS OF IFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CIGS GENERALLY AROUND 2K FT. SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL...WITH A STEADIER RAIN INVOF KSWF. CIGS COULD DROP TO
AROUND 1500 FT WITH ANY SHRA IN THE CITY.
-RA TNGT AND MVFR. CIGS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT ABV MVFR LVLS ON
SAT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GS IN SHRA SAT WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT.
ALTHOUGH TOPS WILL BE BLW 20K FT...ISOLD LIGHTNING POSSIBLE.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY MAY DROP TO AROUND 4SM IF HEAVIER SHRA
DEVELOP NEAR THE ARPT.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY MAY DROP TO AROUND 4SM IF HEAVIER SHRA
DEVELOP NEAR THE ARPT.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY MAY DROP TO AROUND 4SM IF HEAVIER SHRA
DEVELOP NEAR THE ARPT.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY MAY DROP TO AROUND 4SM IF HEAVIER SHRA
DEVELOP NEAR THE ARPT.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY MAY DROP TO AROUND 3SM IF HEAVIER SHRA
DEVELOP NEAR THE ARPT.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF ACTIVITY OVER THE
OCEAN ALLOWS FOR 1K FT CIGS TO LINGER.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT AFTN...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR. SHOWERS. NW GUSTS
AROUND 35 KT.
.SUN...VFR. CHC SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MRNG. NW GUSTS 30-35KT. FCST
MAY CHANGE IF DEPARTURE OF STORM SLOWS.
.MON...VFR.
.TUE-WED...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE INVOF A WARM FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
FOG CONTINUES WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 MILE. THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL 1PM. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ON THE
CENTRAL OCEAN WATERS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.
EXPECTING THE FOG TO BREAK UP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
GREATER NW WINDS TOWARDS MID AFTERNOON.
SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NON-OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND...SHOULD STRENGTHEN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN SOUND AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS...HAVE WENT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHERE GUSTS MAY
FALL JUST SHORT OF GALES. IT IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE SMALL CRAFT IS
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GALES MAY BE NEEDED.
CONDITIONS FALL BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF ON THE OCEAN AND THEN ERN SOUND/BAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE VIA BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MOST REMAINING SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN RAIN
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH FOR SOME EASTERN SECTIONS. FOR THE MOST PART...SMALL
STREAM LEVELS HAVE STABILIZED...WITH ONLY MINOR RISES EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
AROUND 0.2-0.3 OF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT - WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO DECREASE
TO UNDER 1 INCH BY LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF MINOR
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...THEN
ONLY MINIMAL QPF IN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ335-338-345.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
340-350.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ330-340-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BC/GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV
000
FXUS61 KALY 241731
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY. A STORM
WILL DEVELOP...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE STORM WILL DRAW MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND BRING DAMP WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK...WITH FAIR DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT...SHOWER COVERAGE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS CVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES
OVER A REGION OF LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OF A PERSISTENT STRATIFORM
NATURE...UNLIKE THE HEAVY CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY EXPECT ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RAINFALL RATES UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS ONCE AGAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR CAA NOW TAKING HOLD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COUPLED WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD AND
SHOWER COVERAGE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT DAYTIME HEATING.
HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 40S IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS...UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
TONIGHT...FAVORABLE QG DYNAMICS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS THE
UPPER LOW OBTAINS A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT WITH HEIGHT. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD HELPING TO THROW ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA VIA A COLD CONVEYER BELT. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH...WITH RAINFALL RATES
AGAIN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY INITIALLY DUE TO CAA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THEN HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT AND IN LINE WITH PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE MODEL SUITE. ONLY DIFFERENCE IN 00UTC RUNS IS NAM
IS A BIT FASTER WITH PROGRESSION OF WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT
ITS BEEN THE FAST MODEL FOR SVRL RUNS...AND AT THIS TIME ITS
PROBABLY THE OUTLIER.
BY SAT MORNING THE 500HPA CUT OFF WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK...AND COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
BE CENTERED JUST OFF BOSTON. 500HPA CUT OFF WILL TAKE ON A NEG
TILT SAT...AND ENHANCE COOL CONVEYOR BELT PCPN FM COASTAL
LOW...BACK INTO MOST OF THE FCA. WITH COASTAL LOW ALMOST
VERTICAL...12MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NYS...IT SHOULD BE A RAW
NOVEMBER-ESQ DAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND A BRISK CHILLY
NORTH WIND. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -2 TO -4C OVER FCA...COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SNOW OVER HIGHEST TRRN. (YES ITS MAY 25TH IN NEW YORK WERE
TALKING ABOUT HERE). AT SFC HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE IN MID 40S TO
MID 50S...15-20 DEG BLO NRML. LOWS SAT NT WILL FALL TO MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ON EAST SIDE OF FCA AND
OVER HIR TRRN...DIMINISHING TWRD THE WEST. DURING SAT AND SAT NT
ANOTHER 0.30 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF IS FCST BY GFS...0.10 TO 0.5 BY
GEM...AND A TENTH TO AN INCH BY THE "FAST" NAM WHICH IS ALL EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER
THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS TAKE THE VERTICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY AND ONWARD INTO THE MARITIMES...IN LINE WITH
CURRENT FCST. PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCT -SHRA EAST...ISOLD -SHRA
WEST...TIED MAINLY TO LAST OF SHORT WVS SPIRALING AROUND 500HPA
CUT OFF...DIURNAL HEATING AND TRRN. CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH BREAKS OF SUN WILL INCR ALONG W PERIPHERY OF
FCA...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF AREA HAS A CHANCE TO SEE
SUNSET SUN EVENING. WITH LESS PCPN...SOME SUN MAX TEMPS WILL
RECOVER TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH SOME MID 60S SE ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE CUT OFF EXITS INTO LABRADOR...AND THE BEGINNINGS
OF THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TAKE SHAPE AS A 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM MISS VLY TO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND THEN STARTS BUILDING
EAST.
AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GRTLKS MONDAY...AND
ACROSS FCA MON NT. UNDER STRONG SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S IN VLYS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALB.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS UNDER
THE SFC HIGH...AND LOWS IN 30S AND LOW 40S. THERE MAY BE FROST AND
FREEZE ISSUES PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIR TRRN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN CHANGE THAT SET UP MONDAY...BECOMES THE DOMINATE
REGIME DURING THE EFP. 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS FM GULF COAST TO JAMES
BAY...THEN SHIFTS TO EASTERN SEABOARD. 590DM CLOSED HIGH OVER MUCH
OF EAST FROM LATE WED INTO WEEKEND. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN THERE FOR
DAYS IN GFS...AND THERE`S MORE AGREEMENT BTWN GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES IN DAYS 5-7 THAN IN THE SHORT TERM.
AT SFC COOLER BUT MODERATED CANADIAN HIGH HOLDS OVER RGN TUES
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE. WAA BEGINS POURING OVER TOP OF 500HPA
RIDGE AS SFC WMFNT SURGES THROUGH FCA TUES NT AND WED WITH
-SHRA/TSTMS. THIS HAS ALL THE HALLMARKS OF MCS RIDGE ROLLERS.
BY WED EVENING FCA AND MUCH OF USA FROM ROCKIES TO THE SEABOARD IS
UNDER THE EASTERN RIDGE...AND BERMUDA HIGH. TEMPERATURES WHICH
STARTED THE WEEK WELL BLO NORMAL WILL SURGE TO 70S TUES...MID 70S
TO LOW 80S WED...THE 80S THURS AND TWRD 90 FRI.
WILL POPULATE WITH OVERNIGHT WPC GRIDS. ECMWF CLOSE ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO GFS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STEADIER RAIN HAS MOVED ACROSS THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT KPSF AS AS
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE TAFS FOR
SATURDAY SO HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH VFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS FM
12Z TO 18Z SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT AROUND 10 KT WITH
GUSTS 15 KT TO 20 KT...THEN JUST BECOME STEADY AT AROUND 10 KT
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY OUT OF THE NORTH
AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
WED...VFR. MVFR PSBL WITH CHC -SHRA/-TSRA DURING THE AFT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE AND LINGER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
INTO LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DRIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES. IT WILL
BRING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST...AND LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST.
THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PERIODS OF HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IRL/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KBUF 241725
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
125 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND A DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
RULE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
MAINLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WORKING INTO THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE MAY
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE LOOP SHOWING EXPANSIVE AREA OF OVERCAST. IT MIGHT BE AWHILE
UNTIL WE SEE SOME CLEARING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SOME LIMITED
SUNSHINE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY.
IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...ALTHOUGH THESE MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM
IF DENSE OVERCAST PERSISTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL PUT EVEN MORE A CHILL INTO
THE AIR.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN...THEN CLOSE OFF
OVER SOUTHEAST NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW MAY GENERATE A
FEW MORE SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT.
FARTHER TO THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE A SHARP EAST TO WEST DECREASE IN
CLOUDS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH MID 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE MID 30S...THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST EXISTS.
HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THAT THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
OUR REGION WILL BE WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS FORECAST
TO STALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD IN
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NARROWED...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE.
REGARDLESS OF MODEL DIFFERENCES...THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN FAIR WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WHICH INCLUDES BUFFALO...ROCHESTER...AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THERE PROBABLY WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SHOWER EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW FINALLY DRIFTS
TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST REPRESENTS A CONSENSUS OF
THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM/SREF/EUROPEAN/GGEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT SHOULD
MODERATE A BIT ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY...AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT...EXPECT AN EARLY LAKE BREEZE SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...WITH SOME
PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. A MODEST GRADIENT AND WARMING 850MB
TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL ELSEWHERE...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. MOST OF THIS PERIOD
WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BUILDING EASTWARD. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE EAST
COAST...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR.
HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH LIKELY TO BE ACROSS OUR REGION. AFTER
THIS...A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER
LAKES...SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARD OUR REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BUT HAVE A LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WHEN IT WILL CROSS OUR REGION. THE 00Z GFS/GGEM
LIFT THE FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EUROPEAN
NEARLY A DAY SLOWER. FOR NOW...WITH GO WITH A PERSISTENT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WILL ALSO KEY EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO
THE LOWER 80S BY MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY EVEN WARMER
IF THE EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE VERIFIES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE DEPARTED
COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. IFR CIGS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EVENING...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR...THEN SCATTER
OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
THIN OUT TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS GENERAL TREND WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
THAT WILL BE STATIONED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
THE MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE LIFTING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WIND AND WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW LEVELS NEEDED FOR A SCA.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020-
040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LOZ030-042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TJP/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TJP
000
FXUS61 KBTV 241725
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS...WITH SOME
RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH SOME HIGH ELEVATION ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR UPDATES TO T/TD/POPS AS WE HEAD
INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
STEADY FROM HERE ON OUT...GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE 40S. DID OPT TO
RAISE POPS TO NEARLY CATEGORICAL IN ALL AREAS (I.E. > 80%) PER
LATEST RADAR COVERAGE AND HI-RES MODEL 0-12 HR OUTPUT. RAIN WILL
CERTAINLY NOT BE AS EXCESSIVE AS WE SAW YESTERDAY IN
SPOTS...NONETHELESS IT WILL BE A RAW...BREEZY AND WET DAY FOR MOST
LOCALES WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF POSSIBLE BY
DAY`S END. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
UPDATED FCST TO DROP TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ACRS THE SLV AND 1 TO
3 DEGREES OVER THE CPV. ALSO...MADE SEVERAL TWEAKS TO POPS BASED
ON CRNT RADAR DATA. THE COMBINATION OF LLVL CAA AND UPSLOPE FLW WL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL RAIN ACRS MOST OF THE FA TODAY. HIGHEST
POPS/QPF WL BE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND NORTHERN DACKS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WL BE BTWN 0.10 AND 0.40". TEMPS
WL REMAIN NEAR STEADY IN THE L/M 40S MTNS TO NEAR 50 SLV/CPV.
ALSO...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH CAN BE
ANTICIPATED...ADDING AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.
A LONG DURATION RAIN WITH SOME ACCUMULATING MTN
SNOW EVENT EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
BY SUNDAY...WITH SHARP RISES EXPECTED ON AREA WATERWAYS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN
CONUS THIS MORNING...AS BOTH NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ARE
PHASING. NOTICING LARGE PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC/SNE AS TROF BECMS NEGATIVELY TILTED. ALSO...DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT IS ROTATING ACRS THE SE CONUS. THESE FEATURES
COMBINED WITH A DUAL 25H JET STRUCTURE...SIMILAR TO A WINTER-TIME
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WL PRODUCE A COMPLEX WX SCENARIO ACRS OUR FA THIS WKND.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC A SHARP COLD FRNT IS MOVING ACRS OUR
CWA...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS WL EVENTUALLY
PUSH TWD THE COAST...WITH COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
RAINFALL...ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AND POST-FRONTAL
MOISTURE. EXPECT OCCASIONAL WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN TODAY...AS FA IS BTWN
SYSTEMS. GFS/NAM SHOW BEST 7H FGEN FORCING AND ASSOCIATED Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ACRS OUR CWA AFT 18Z. IN ADDITION...WARM MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH HEAVIEST QPF. WL
STILL MENTION CAT POPS...BUT QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE BTWN 0.10 AND
0.40" TODAY. TEMPS TODAY WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL STRUGGLE IN THE
U30S TO M40S MTNS TO L50S CPV/SLV TO NEAR 60F AT VSF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...POTENT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY WL ROUND MID/UPPER
LVL TROF BASE AND DEVELOP SFC LOW PRES NEAR CAPE COD BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WL QUICKLY BECM VERTICALLY AND NEGATIVELY
STACKED AS 7H/5H CIRCULATIONS DEEPEN AND BECOME CLOSED. THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WL ADVECT PLENTY OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BACK INTO OUR FA BTWN 850 AND 700MB...WHILE A VERY COLD AIR MASS IS
PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS VERY TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE RRQ OF 25H JET WL
PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP EVENT ACRS MOST OF
OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN DACKS INTO VT. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE
COASTAL SYSTEM WL HAVE A VERY WINTER-TIME THERMAL/JET STRUCTURE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION BAND OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
LAYER OMEGA FROM 18Z TODAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY. THIS BAND OF FAVORABLE
LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...WHICH
WL PRODUCE A LONG DURATION PRECIP EVENT. THE FGEN FORCING AND
DEFORMATION ZNS NW OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT
YOU SEE IN A WINTER TIME COASTAL...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE BACKSIDE
UPSLOPE PARAMETERS.
RAINFALL...EXPECT STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75"
FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 1.0 TO 2.0" CPV/EASTERN DACKS TO DOWNSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE NEK TO 1.50 TO 2.5"...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS
OF NORTH/CENTRAL VT BY 00Z MONDAY. THESE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER A 24 TO 48 PERIOD WL CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL RIVER AND LOW LYING FLOODING POSSIBLE.
NOTE...THIS WL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT WITH STEADY/MODERATE RAINFALL
RATES...WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM THURSDAY EVENT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF...THEREFORE NO
FLOOD WATCH WL BE ISSUED ATTM.
SNOWFALL...STILL HAVING A HARD TIME BELIEVING ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS ABOVE 2500 FT ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF PROFILES HAVE INDICATED
THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AS COLDER AIR IS
WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BLW 0C BY
TONIGHT...WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BLW 540DAM. THIS
COMBINED WITH SOME COOLING FROM STRONG DYNAMICS WL HELP TO PRODUCE
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACRS THE DACKS AND GREEN MTNS ABOVE
2500FT. WL TRY TO SHOW IN GRIDS...BUT IMPACTS WL BE MINIMAL GIVEN
THE HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THINKING A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
HEAVY WET SNOW WL BE POSSIBLE...WITH 6 INCHES OR SO FOR THE
SUMMITS FROM MT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS PARTS OF THE
EASTERN DACKS BY SUNDAY. BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS/WINDS...PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP AND A NORTH WIND WL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S SLV/CPV ON SAT/SUNDAY. THE TRENDS HAVE BEEN COOLER AND
COOLER IN THE GUIDANCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ON SAT
NIGHT...WITH PRECIP/CLOUDS...THINKING L/M 30S MTNS TO NEAR 40F CPV/SLV.
EXPECT A COLD/BLUSTERY AND WET DAY ON SUNDAY FOR MARATHON
ACTIVITIES IN BURLINGTON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LOW FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THUS BRINGING ANY
PRECIPITATION QUICKLY TO AN END. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...BUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN BY MIDWEEK AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NOTICEABLE WARMING
TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK AND COMBINED WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
MASS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF
SITES DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS LIGHT RAIN/FG.
WINDS MAINLY NNE 10-20KTS...W/ 10KTS SEEN BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY AT
TIMES FOR MSS/SLK/RUT.
OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SFC
LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLEARING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...A LONG DURATION MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
IS ANTICIPATED FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES
ON LARGE STEM RIVERS. EXPECT STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM
0.25 TO 0.75" FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 1.0 TO 2.0" CPV/EASTERN
DACKS TO DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NEK TO 1.50 TO 2.5"...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS OF NORTH/CENTRAL VT BY 00Z MONDAY.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RECENT RAIN FROM CONVECTION WL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL MINOR LOW LYING FLOODING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL RIVERS TO APPROACH FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY. NO FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT IF CRNT TRENDS CONTINUE
ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH MAYBE NEEDED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/JN
HYDROLOGY...JMG
000
FXUS61 KOKX 241524
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1124 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AS THE FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
THEN LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HOURLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED WITH A WEIGHTED 3/4 12Z NAM12 AND 1/4
LAV SOLUTION TO REPRESENT A COOLING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
DEWPOINTS ALSO INCORPORATED AN EVEN BLEND OF 12Z NAM12 AND LAVS.
THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SO WORDING WAS
ADJUSTED TO SHOW INTERMITTENT WITH SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE ISOLATED AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE EASTERN MOST SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THIS INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. WITH
THE FRONT MOVEMENT...EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE THE WIND
SHIFT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND
COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN FALL WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES OF LONG ISLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING
EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...AS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE AREA...A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION FROM SHOWERS TO MORE OF A
STRATIFORM RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POPS
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN LIKELY/CATEGORICAL.
ONCE AGAIN...FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S...WITH THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND THE
COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN. THIS WILL BE DUE TO COLD AIR FILTERING
IN ON A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT
OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS
WEEKEND. LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME
RATHER BRISK BY SAT AFTERNOON...FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH INTO
EARLY SAT EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
EITHER. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER
ERN CT/LONG ISLAND VIA SOME ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS DRY SLOT
PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY 55-60 AND DROPPING INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT.
STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY SAT NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS E OF NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY/ISOLD IN
NATURE ON SUNDAY VIA CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL COOL AND BREEZY ON SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S...AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
DRY WX AND A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF NYC.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT OVER LI AND CNTRL CT TRACKS EWD AND OFFSHORE THIS AFTN.
WINDS VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE THRU THE DAY.
NW WINDS 15-20KT WITH GUSTS 25-29KT THIS AFTN.
AREAS OF IFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CIGS GENERALLY AROUND 2K FT. SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL.
-RA AND MVFR TNGT WITH NW WINDS 15-25KT. GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT
POSSIBLE.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: 1500FT CIGS MAY LINGER TIL 16-17Z. WINDS
WILL INCREASE THRU THE DAY.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL 1500FT CIGS POSSIBLE TIL 17Z. WINDS
WILL INCREASE THRU THE DAY.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL 1500FT CIGS POSSIBLE TIL 17Z. WINDS
WILL INCREASE THRU THE DAY.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL 1500FT CIGS POSSIBLE TIL 17Z. WINDS
WILL INCREASE THRU THE DAY.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL 1200FT CIGS POSSIBLE TIL 17Z. WINDS
WILL INCREASE THRU THE DAY.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFT IN THE 15-16Z TIME PERIOD. NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE THRU THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR. SHOWERS. NW GUSTS 25-30KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. CHC AM SHOWERS. NW GUSTS 30-35KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FOG CONTINUES WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 MILE. THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL 1PM. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ON THE
CENTRAL OCEAN WATERS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.
EXPECTING THE FOG TO BREAK UP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
GREATER NW WINDS TOWARDS MID AFTERNOON.
SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NON-OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND...SHOULD STRENGTHEN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN SOUND AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS...HAVE WENT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHERE GUSTS MAY
FALL JUST SHORT OF GALES. IT IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE SMALL CRAFT IS
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GALES MAY BE NEEDED.
CONDITIONS FALL BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF ON THE OCEAN AND THEN ERN SOUND/BAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE VIA BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MOST REMAINING SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN RAIN
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH FOR SOME EASTERN SECTIONS. FOR THE MOST PART...SMALL
STREAM LEVELS HAVE STABILIZED...WITH ONLY MINOR RISES EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
AROUND 0.2-0.3 OF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT - WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO DECREASE
TO UNDER 1 INCH BY LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF MINOR
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...THEN
ONLY MINIMAL QPF IN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ335-338-345.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
340-350.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ330-340-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JM/BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BC/GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC/JC
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV
000
FXUS61 KBGM 241522
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1122 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND...IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT`S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY...DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AS
THIS DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...SHOWERS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY
...RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. A
STEADY WARMING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...THE FIRST SUMMER HOLIDAY IS STARTING AS ANYTHING
BUT WITH A RPT OF SLEET IN STEUBEN COUNTY AND TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPR 30S DURING THE LATE MRNG DESPITE THE CALENDAR DATE. WHILE
I XPCT THE TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY RISE A FEW DEGREES...HAVE ADJUSTED
THE AFTN FCST MAX WELL DOWNWARD. ADJUSTED THE POP TO BETTER
REPRESENT THE AREA OF SHWRS...BUT STILL CONT CHANCE THRU THE AFTN
WITH THE CAA AND INSTABILITY. PRVS DISC BLO.
4 AM UPDATE... SFC COLD FRNT WAS SLICING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THIS MRNG...HAVING REACHED OUR SERN ZNS AS OF THIS WRITING. THE
FRNT WILL HAVE CLEARED THE ENTIRE FA BY 10-11Z. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE UPR 30S-MID 40S OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA
ATTM...OWING TO STG LOW-LVL CAA POST-FROPA. AS FAR AS PCPN IS
CONCERNED...STEADIER SHRA HAVE NOW PUSHED WELL TO OUR E...AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE HAS BEEN SWEPT TWDS NEW ENG/NJ/NYC. HOWEVER...SCTD
-SHRA ARE STILL PREVALENT ALL THE WAY BACK TO WRN NY/SRN
ONT...WITH A SIG UPR-LVL TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE OH VLY ATTM.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY...-SHRA WILL LIKELY GROW IN
COVERAGE...SPCLY BY THIS AFTN...AS STG DPVA WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TDY...ALG WITH COOLING MID-LVL TEMPS. WE HAVE LOW CHC POPS/SCTD
VERBIAGE THIS AM...GOING TO LIKELY/CAT POPS BY EARLY AFTN FOR MOST
PLACES...PARTICULARLY OUR ERN ZNS.
TEMPS TDY WILL BE SOME 25-35 DEGS COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 40S ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
ONLY HOVER IN THE 50S MOST OTHER PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE... TEMPS WILL BE COLD TNT...WITH 30S TO LWR 40S
EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. NORMALLY...THIS WOULD BE AN EASY SITN FOR A
FROST ADVSY ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...ONLY OUR WRN ZNS ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE ANY CLEARING LATE TNT. ALSO...WINDS SHOULD STAY UP OVER THE
ENTIRE RGN...AS THE PRES GRADIENT STAYS TIGHT. THESE TWO FACTORS
SHOULD COMBINE TO MAKE FROST FORMATION UNLIKELY. IN FACT...OUR ERN
ZNS MAY WELL SEE CONTINUED SHWR ACTIVITY...AT LEAST THROUGH THE
EVE HRS.
SAT...ALTHOUGH SOME SCTD -SHRA MAY HANG ON OVER ERN SXNS...THEY
SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD...WITH THE AMPLIFIED ERN U.S. UPR TROUGH
STARTING TO PUSH SLOWLY EWD. ALSO...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST BREAKS
OF SUNSHINE MOST AREAS...PARTICULARLY OUT ACRS THE FINGER LKS RGN.
TEMPS...ALTHOUGH STAYING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND...REACHING THE MID 50S-LWR 60S IN
THE AFTN.
SAT NGT LOOKS COLD AGN...BUT ALSO STILL FAIRLY BREEZY...WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS SLOW TO BUILD IN. LTR SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO ASCERTAIN
IF THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF ENUF TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION. AT THIS
JUNCTURE...THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY.
SUN AND SUN NGT...THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE...WITH MORE
SUNSHINE ON SUN...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUN NGT. TEMPS WILL
REBOUND INTO THE 60S SUN AFTN...BUT ARE LIKELY TO DROP SHARPLY
AFTER SUNSET. BY SUN NGT/EARLY MON...BETTER RADIATING CONDS ARE
FORESEEN...SO FROST COULD DVLP IN OUR TYPICALLY COLDER AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE... AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS OFF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.
MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE COOL AIRMASS BECOMES MODIFIED. ON TUESDAY...850MB THERMAL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD BACK OVER CENTRAL NY AND N PA. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE THROUGH MID WEEK RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUES INTO WED ATTENDANT TO A WARM
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA.
PREV DISC... UPR LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NWRD OUT OF NEW ENG WHILE A NLY
FLOW OF COLD AIR CONTS OVER THE FCST AREA. STRONG SUN ANGLE HELPS
TOP MODIFY THE AIR MASS BUT IT WILL STILL BE COOLER THAN NRML FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES
LATE TUE INTO WED AS THE HI RETREATS AND WRM FNT OVER THE MIDWEST
PUSHES NE. MUCH WRMR AIR RETURNS FOR WED AND WITH THE FNT STILL
OVER NRN NY AND WRN NEW ENG...PSBLTY OF SOME TRWS THRU THE END OF
THE PD.
MODEL GUID IN LINE WITH HPC GUID WHICH WAS FOLLOWED FOR THIS FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL DIG ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PRODUCING OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY STATE...OR RISE SLIGHTLY BY A
CATEGORY FROM IFR-MVFR THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TAKES PLACE. HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS WILL BE
LAST TO RECOVER FROM THE MORE RESTRICTIVE CATEGORIES BY AROUND
NOON. THE COOL ADVECTING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PROLONG OVERCAST CIGS
LONGER THAN WHAT MODELS SUGGEST...SO HAVE NOT IMPROVED CIGS TO
HIGHER ALTITUDE VFR UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING AND HOPING THAT
TIMING WILL SUFFICE. MORE IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...ALBEIT BLUSTERY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 15-25 KTS...SUBSIDING AFTER 00Z TO
AROUND 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR CIGS.
SUN-MON...VFR NO CIG.
TUE...VFR. HIGH LVL CIGS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MLJ
NEAR TERM...DGM/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...JAB
000
FXUS61 KOKX 241452
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1052 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AS THE FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
THEN LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES. SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
EASTERN COASTAL CONNECTICUT. THE FOG IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY SO WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS THIS.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HAS COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS A
250HPA JET AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER
DAYBREAK. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. WITH THE
FRONT MOVING SLOWLY...IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY
THAT EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA SEE THE WIND SHIFT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND
COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN FALL WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES OF LONG ISLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING
EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...AS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE AREA...A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION FROM SHOWERS TO MORE OF A
STRATIFORM RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POPS
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN LIKELY/CATEGORICAL.
ONCE AGAIN...FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S...WITH THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND THE
COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN. THIS WILL BE DUE TO COLD AIR FILTERING
IN ON A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT
OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS
WEEKEND. LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME
RATHER BRISK BY SAT AFTERNOON...FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH INTO
EARLY SAT EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
EITHER. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER
ERN CT/LONG ISLAND VIA SOME ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS DRY SLOT
PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY 55-60 AND DROPPING INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT.
STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY SAT NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS E OF NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY/ISOLD IN
NATURE ON SUNDAY VIA CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL COOL AND BREEZY ON SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S...AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
DRY WX AND A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF NYC.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT OVER LI AND CNTRL CT TRACKS EWD AND OFFSHORE THIS AFTN.
WINDS VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE THRU THE DAY.
NW WINDS 15-20KT WITH GUSTS 25-29KT THIS AFTN.
AREAS OF IFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CIGS GENERALLY AROUND 2K FT. SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL.
-RA AND MVFR TNGT WITH NW WINDS 15-25KT. GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT
POSSIBLE.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: 1500FT CIGS MAY LINGER TIL 16-17Z. WINDS
WILL INCREASE THRU THE DAY.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL 1500FT CIGS POSSIBLE TIL 17Z. WINDS
WILL INCREASE THRU THE DAY.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL 1500FT CIGS POSSIBLE TIL 17Z. WINDS
WILL INCREASE THRU THE DAY.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL 1500FT CIGS POSSIBLE TIL 17Z. WINDS
WILL INCREASE THRU THE DAY.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL 1200FT CIGS POSSIBLE TIL 17Z. WINDS
WILL INCREASE THRU THE DAY.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFT IN THE 15-16Z TIME PERIOD. NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE THRU THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR. SHOWERS. NW GUSTS 25-30KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. CHC AM SHOWERS. NW GUSTS 30-35KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN WATERS. FOG HAS
DEVELOPED AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 MILE. THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL 11AM. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ON THE
CENTRAL OCEAN WATERS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.
SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NON-OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND...SHOULD STRENGTHEN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE PUT UP A GALE WATCH FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN SOUND AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS...HAVE WENT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHERE GUSTS MAY FALL
JUST SHORT OF GALES. IT IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE SMALL CRAFT IS ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GALES MAY BE NEEDED.
CONDITIONS FALL BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF ON THE OCEAN AND THEN ERN SOUND/BAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE VIA BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE AN ADDITIONAL 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH OF RAINFALL WEST...AND
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH EAST...THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FOR THE
MOST PART...SMALL STREAM LEVELS HAVE STABILIZED THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY MINOR RISES EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2-3/4 OF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT - WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO DECREASE TO UNDER 1 INCH BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...THEN
ONLY MINIMAL QPF IN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ335-338-345.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340-
350.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ330-340-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BC/GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC/JC
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV
000
FXUS61 KBUF 241448
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1048 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND A DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
RULE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
MAINLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WORKING INTO THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE MAY
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE LOOP SHOWING EXPANSIVE AREA OF OVERCAST. IT MIGHT BE AWHILE
UNTIL WE SEE SOME CLEARING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SOME LIMITED
SUNSHINE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY.
IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...ALTHOUGH THESE MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM
IF DENSE OVERCAST PERSISTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL PUT EVEN MORE A CHILL INTO
THE AIR.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN...THEN CLOSE OFF
OVER SOUTHEAST NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW MAY GENERATE A
FEW MORE SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT.
FARTHER TO THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE A SHARP EAST TO WEST DECREASE IN
CLOUDS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH MID 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE MID 30S...THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST EXISTS.
HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THAT THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
OUR REGION WILL BE WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS FORECAST
TO STALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD IN
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NARROWED...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE.
REGARDLESS OF MODEL DIFFERENCES...THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
FAIR WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WHICH INCLUDES BUFFALO...ROCHESTER...AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THERE PROBABLY WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SHOWER EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW FINALLY DRIFTS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST REPRESENTS A CONSENSUS OF THE PAST
TWO RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM/SREF/EUROPEAN/GGEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT SHOULD
MODERATE A BIT ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY...AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT...EXPECT AN EARLY LAKE BREEZE SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...WITH SOME
PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. A MODEST GRADIENT AND WARMING 850MB
TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL ELSEWHERE...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. MOST OF THIS PERIOD
WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BUILDING EASTWARD. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE EAST
COAST...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR.
HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH LIKELY TO BE ACROSS OUR REGION. AFTER
THIS...A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER
LAKES...SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARD OUR REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BUT HAVE A LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WHEN IT WILL CROSS OUR REGION. THE 00Z GFS/GGEM
LIFT THE FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EUROPEAN
NEARLY A DAY SLOWER. FOR NOW...WITH GO WITH A PERSISTENT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WILL ALSO KEY EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO
THE LOWER 80S BY MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY EVEN WARMER
IF THE EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE VERIFIES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD
FRONT. THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. IFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE
TO MVFR AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF. LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR...THEN SCATTER OUT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT TONIGHT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS GENERAL
TREND WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW THAT WILL BE STATIONED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
THE MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE LIFTING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WIND AND WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW LEVELS NEEDED FOR A SCA.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020-
040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LOZ030-042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TJP/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...TJP
000
FXUS61 KBTV 241442
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS...WITH SOME
RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH SOME HIGH ELEVATION ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR UPDATES TO T/TD/POPS AS WE HEAD
INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
STEADY FROM HERE ON OUT...GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE 40S. DID OPT TO
RAISE POPS TO NEARLY CATEGORICAL IN ALL AREAS (I.E. > 80%) PER
LATEST RADAR COVERAGE AND HI-RES MODEL 0-12 HR OUTPUT. RAIN WILL
CERTAINLY NOT BE AS EXCESSIVE AS WE SAW YESTERDAY IN
SPOTS...NONETHELESS IT WILL BE A RAW...BREEZY AND WET DAY FOR MOST
LOCALES WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF POSSIBLE BY
DAY`S END. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
UPDATED FCST TO DROP TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ACRS THE SLV AND 1 TO
3 DEGREES OVER THE CPV. ALSO...MADE SEVERAL TWEAKS TO POPS BASED
ON CRNT RADAR DATA. THE COMBINATION OF LLVL CAA AND UPSLOPE FLW WL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL RAIN ACRS MOST OF THE FA TODAY. HIGHEST
POPS/QPF WL BE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND NORTHERN DACKS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WL BE BTWN 0.10 AND 0.40". TEMPS
WL REMAIN NEAR STEADY IN THE L/M 40S MTNS TO NEAR 50 SLV/CPV.
ALSO...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH CAN BE
ANTICIPATED...ADDING AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.
A LONG DURATION RAIN WITH SOME ACCUMULATING MTN
SNOW EVENT EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
BY SUNDAY...WITH SHARP RISES EXPECTED ON AREA WATERWAYS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN
CONUS THIS MORNING...AS BOTH NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ARE
PHASING. NOTICING LARGE PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC/SNE AS TROF BECMS NEGATIVELY TILTED. ALSO...DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT IS ROTATING ACRS THE SE CONUS. THESE FEATURES
COMBINED WITH A DUAL 25H JET STRUCTURE...SIMILAR TO A WINTER-TIME
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WL PRODUCE A COMPLEX WX SCENARIO ACRS OUR FA THIS WKND.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC A SHARP COLD FRNT IS MOVING ACRS OUR
CWA...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS WL EVENTUALLY
PUSH TWD THE COAST...WITH COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
RAINFALL...ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AND POST-FRONTAL
MOISTURE. EXPECT OCCASIONAL WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN TODAY...AS FA IS BTWN
SYSTEMS. GFS/NAM SHOW BEST 7H FGEN FORCING AND ASSOCIATED Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ACRS OUR CWA AFT 18Z. IN ADDITION...WARM MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH HEAVIEST QPF. WL
STILL MENTION CAT POPS...BUT QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE BTWN 0.10 AND
0.40" TODAY. TEMPS TODAY WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL STRUGGLE IN THE
U30S TO M40S MTNS TO L50S CPV/SLV TO NEAR 60F AT VSF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...POTENT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY WL ROUND MID/UPPER
LVL TROF BASE AND DEVELOP SFC LOW PRES NEAR CAPE COD BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WL QUICKLY BECM VERTICALLY AND NEGATIVELY
STACKED AS 7H/5H CIRCULATIONS DEEPEN AND BECOME CLOSED. THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WL ADVECT PLENTY OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BACK INTO OUR FA BTWN 850 AND 700MB...WHILE A VERY COLD AIR MASS IS
PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS VERY TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE RRQ OF 25H JET WL
PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP EVENT ACRS MOST OF
OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN DACKS INTO VT. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE
COASTAL SYSTEM WL HAVE A VERY WINTER-TIME THERMAL/JET STRUCTURE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION BAND OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
LAYER OMEGA FROM 18Z TODAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY. THIS BAND OF FAVORABLE
LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...WHICH
WL PRODUCE A LONG DURATION PRECIP EVENT. THE FGEN FORCING AND
DEFORMATION ZNS NW OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT
YOU SEE IN A WINTER TIME COASTAL...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE BACKSIDE
UPSLOPE PARAMETERS.
RAINFALL...EXPECT STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75"
FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 1.0 TO 2.0" CPV/EASTERN DACKS TO DOWNSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE NEK TO 1.50 TO 2.5"...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS
OF NORTH/CENTRAL VT BY 00Z MONDAY. THESE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER A 24 TO 48 PERIOD WL CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL RIVER AND LOW LYING FLOODING POSSIBLE.
NOTE...THIS WL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT WITH STEADY/MODERATE RAINFALL
RATES...WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM THURSDAY EVENT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF...THEREFORE NO
FLOOD WATCH WL BE ISSUED ATTM.
SNOWFALL...STILL HAVING A HARD TIME BELIEVING ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS ABOVE 2500 FT ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF PROFILES HAVE INDICATED
THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AS COLDER AIR IS
WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BLW 0C BY
TONIGHT...WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BLW 540DAM. THIS
COMBINED WITH SOME COOLING FROM STRONG DYNAMICS WL HELP TO PRODUCE
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACRS THE DACKS AND GREEN MTNS ABOVE
2500FT. WL TRY TO SHOW IN GRIDS...BUT IMPACTS WL BE MINIMAL GIVEN
THE HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THINKING A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
HEAVY WET SNOW WL BE POSSIBLE...WITH 6 INCHES OR SO FOR THE
SUMMITS FROM MT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS PARTS OF THE
EASTERN DACKS BY SUNDAY. BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS/WINDS...PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP AND A NORTH WIND WL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S SLV/CPV ON SAT/SUNDAY. THE TRENDS HAVE BEEN COOLER AND
COOLER IN THE GUIDANCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ON SAT
NIGHT...WITH PRECIP/CLOUDS...THINKING L/M 30S MTNS TO NEAR 40F CPV/SLV.
EXPECT A COLD/BLUSTERY AND WET DAY ON SUNDAY FOR MARATHON
ACTIVITIES IN BURLINGTON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LOW FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THUS BRINGING ANY
PRECIPITATION QUICKLY TO AN END. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...BUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN BY MIDWEEK AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NOTICEABLE WARMING
TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK AND COMBINED WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
MASS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS LIGHT RAIN. THERE WILL ALSO
BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA. THE WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST ALL AREAS
AT SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SFC
LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLEARING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...A LONG DURATION MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
IS ANTICIPATED FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES
ON LARGE STEM RIVERS. EXPECT STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM
0.25 TO 0.75" FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 1.0 TO 2.0" CPV/EASTERN
DACKS TO DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NEK TO 1.50 TO 2.5"...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS OF NORTH/CENTRAL VT BY 00Z MONDAY.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RECENT RAIN FROM CONVECTION WL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL MINOR LOW LYING FLOODING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL RIVERS TO APPROACH FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY. NO FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT IF CRNT TRENDS CONTINUE
ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH MAYBE NEEDED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS
HYDROLOGY...BTV
000
FXUS61 KALY 241436
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1036 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY. A STORM
WILL DEVELOP...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE STORM WILL DRAW MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND BRING DAMP WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK...WITH FAIR DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS YET AGAIN AS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT READINGS HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S
IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWER 60S ONLY REMAINING ACRS FAR SE ZONES.
EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFT AND THEN SLOWLY FALL AS STRONG CAA TAKES HOLD.
RAIN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER DYNAMICS AND
BOUNDARY LAYER FRONTOGENESIS SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN.
TONIGHT...RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE...WITH MORE RAIN DEVELOPING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW...INCLUDING WESTERN
AREAS...WHERE RAIN ASSOCIATED MORE DIRECTLY WITH THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD TRACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FALL...INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT AND IN LINE WITH PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE MODEL SUITE. ONLY DIFFERENCE IN 00UTC RUNS IS NAM
IS A BIT FASTER WITH PROGRESSION OF WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT
ITS BEEN THE FAST MODEL FOR SVRL RUNS...AND AT THIS TIME ITS
PROBABLY THE OUTLIER.
BY SAT MORNING THE 500HPA CUT OFF WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK...AND COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
BE CENTERED JUST OFF BOSTON. 500HPA CUT OFF WILL TAKE ON A NEG
TILT SAT...AND ENHANCE COOL CONVEYOR BELT PCPN FM COASTAL
LOW...BACK INTO MOST OF THE FCA. WITH COASTAL LOW ALMOST
VERTICAL...12MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NYS...IT SHOULD BE A RAW
NOVEMBER-ESQ DAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND A BRISK CHILLY
NORTH WIND. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -2 TO -4C OVER FCA...COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SNOW OVER HIGHEST TRRN. (YES ITS MAY 25TH IN NEW YORK WERE
TALKING ABOUT HERE). AT SFC HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE IN MID 40S TO
MID 50S...15-20 DEG BLO NRML. LOWS SAT NT WILL FALL TO MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ON EAST SIDE OF FCA AND
OVER HIR TRRN...DIMINISHING TWRD THE WEST. DURING SAT AND SAT NT
ANOTHER 0.30 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF IS FCST BY GFS...0.10 TO 0.5 BY
GEM...AND A TENTH TO AN INCH BY THE "FAST" NAM WHICH IS ALL EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER
THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS TAKE THE VERTICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY AND ONWARD INTO THE MARITIMES...IN LINE WITH
CURRENT FCST. PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCT -SHRA EAST...ISOLD -SHRA
WEST...TIED MAINLY TO LAST OF SHORT WVS SPIRALING AROUND 500HPA
CUT OFF...DIURNAL HEATING AND TRRN. CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH BREAKS OF SUN WILL INCR ALONG W PERIPHERY OF
FCA...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF AREA HAS A CHANCE TO SEE
SUNSET SUN EVENING. WITH LESS PCPN...SOME SUN MAX TEMPS WILL
RECOVER TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH SOME MID 60S SE ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE CUT OFF EXITS INTO LABRADOR...AND THE BEGINNINGS
OF THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TAKE SHAPE AS A 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM MISS VLY TO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND THEN STARTS BUILDING
EAST.
AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GRTLKS MONDAY...AND
ACROSS FCA MON NT. UNDER STRONG SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S IN VLYS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALB.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS UNDER
THE SFC HIGH...AND LOWS IN 30S AND LOW 40S. THERE MAY BE FROST AND
FREEZE ISSUES PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIR TRRN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN CHANGE THAT SET UP MONDAY...BECOMES THE DOMINATE
REGIME DURING THE EFP. 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS FM GULF COAST TO JAMES
BAY...THEN SHIFTS TO EASTERN SEABOARD. 590DM CLOSED HIGH OVER MUCH
OF EAST FROM LATE WED INTO WEEKEND. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN THERE FOR
DAYS IN GFS...AND THERE`S MORE AGREEMENT BTWN GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES IN DAYS 5-7 THAN IN THE SHORT TERM.
AT SFC COOLER BUT MODERATED CANADIAN HIGH HOLDS OVER RGN TUES
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE. WAA BEGINS POURING OVER TOP OF 500HPA
RIDGE AS SFC WMFNT SURGES THROUGH FCA TUES NT AND WED WITH
-SHRA/TSTMS. THIS HAS ALL THE HALLMARKS OF MCS RIDGE ROLLERS.
BY WED EVENING FCA AND MUCH OF USA FROM ROCKIES TO THE SEABOARD IS
UNDER THE EASTERN RIDGE...AND BERMUDA HIGH. TEMPERATURES WHICH
STARTED THE WEEK WELL BLO NORMAL WILL SURGE TO 70S TUES...MID 70S
TO LOW 80S WED...THE 80S THURS AND TWRD 90 FRI.
WILL POPULATE WITH OVERNIGHT WPC GRIDS. ECMWF CLOSE ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO GFS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN IS RATHER PATCHY OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STRENGTHENS
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST. CEILINGS HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS.
STEADIER RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS AT ALL SITES. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF THE
RAIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT SO GOING VCSH WITH MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL
RADAR TRENDS CAN BE CHECKED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS HAVE INCREASED FROM THE WEST AT KALB...AND WEST TO NORTH WINDS
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING... BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT AROUND 10 KT BY
AFTERNOON...AND COULD GUST 15 KT TO 20 KT...THEN JUST BECOME STEADY
AT AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE AND LINGER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
INTO LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DRIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES. IT WILL
BRING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST...AND LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST.
THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PERIODS OF HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KALY 241313
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
913 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY. A STORM
WILL DEVELOP...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE STORM WILL DRAW MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND BRING DAMP WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK...WITH FAIR DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM EDT...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS CONSIDERABLY AS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT READINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S AND 50S IN MOST
AREAS WITH LOWER 60S ONLY REMAINING ACRS FAR SE ZONES. EXPECT
TEMPS TO ONLY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFT AND
THEN SLOWLY FALL AS STRONG CAA TAKES HOLD.
RAIN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER DYNAMICS AND
BOUNDARY LAYER FRONTOGENESIS SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN.
TONIGHT...RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE...WITH MORE RAIN DEVELOPING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW...INCLUDING WESTERN
AREAS...WHERE RAIN ASSOCIATED MORE DIRECTLY WITH THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD TRACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FALL...INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT AND IN LINE WITH PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE MODEL SUITE. ONLY DIFFERENCE IN 00UTC RUNS IS NAM
IS A BIT FASTER WITH PROGRESSION OF WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT
ITS BEEN THE FAST MODEL FOR SVRL RUNS...AND AT THIS TIME ITS
PROBABLY THE OUTLIER.
BY SAT MORNING THE 500HPA CUT OFF WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK...AND COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
BE CENTERED JUST OFF BOSTON. 500HPA CUT OFF WILL TAKE ON A NEG
TILT SAT...AND ENHANCE COOL CONVEYOR BELT PCPN FM COASTAL
LOW...BACK INTO MOST OF THE FCA. WITH COASTAL LOW ALMOST
VERTICAL...12MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NYS...IT SHOULD BE A RAW
NOVEMBER-ESQ DAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND A BRISK CHILLY
NORTH WIND. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -2 TO -4C OVER FCA...COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SNOW OVER HIGHEST TRRN. (YES ITS MAY 25TH IN NEW YORK WERE
TALKING ABOUT HERE). AT SFC HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE IN MID 40S TO
MID 50S...15-20 DEG BLO NRML. LOWS SAT NT WILL FALL TO MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ON EAST SIDE OF FCA AND
OVER HIR TRRN...DIMINISHING TWRD THE WEST. DURING SAT AND SAT NT
ANOTHER 0.30 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF IS FCST BY GFS...0.10 TO 0.5 BY
GEM...AND A TENTH TO AN INCH BY THE "FAST" NAM WHICH IS ALL EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER
THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS TAKE THE VERTICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY AND ONWARD INTO THE MARITIMES...IN LINE WITH
CURRENT FCST. PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCT -SHRA EAST...ISOLD -SHRA
WEST...TIED MAINLY TO LAST OF SHORT WVS SPIRALING AROUND 500HPA
CUT OFF...DIURNAL HEATING AND TRRN. CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH BREAKS OF SUN WILL INCR ALONG W PERIPHERY OF
FCA...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF AREA HAS A CHANCE TO SEE
SUNSET SUN EVENING. WITH LESS PCPN...SOME SUN MAX TEMPS WILL
RECOVER TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH SOME MID 60S SE ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE CUT OFF EXITS INTO LABRADOR...AND THE BEGINNINGS
OF THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TAKE SHAPE AS A 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM MISS VLY TO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND THEN STARTS BUILDING
EAST.
AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GRTLKS MONDAY...AND
ACROSS FCA MON NT. UNDER STRONG SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S IN VLYS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALB.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS UNDER
THE SFC HIGH...AND LOWS IN 30S AND LOW 40S. THERE MAY BE FROST AND
FREEZE ISSUES PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIR TRRN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN CHANGE THAT SET UP MONDAY...BECOMES THE DOMINATE
REGIME DURING THE EFP. 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS FM GULF COAST TO JAMES
BAY...THEN SHIFTS TO EASTERN SEABOARD. 590DM CLOSED HIGH OVER MUCH
OF EAST FROM LATE WED INTO WEEKEND. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN THERE FOR
DAYS IN GFS...AND THERE`S MORE AGREEMENT BTWN GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES IN DAYS 5-7 THAN IN THE SHORT TERM.
AT SFC COOLER BUT MODERATED CANADIAN HIGH HOLDS OVER RGN TUES
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE. WAA BEGINS POURING OVER TOP OF 500HPA
RIDGE AS SFC WMFNT SURGES THROUGH FCA TUES NT AND WED WITH
-SHRA/TSTMS. THIS HAS ALL THE HALLMARKS OF MCS RIDGE ROLLERS.
BY WED EVENING FCA AND MUCH OF USA FROM ROCKIES TO THE SEABOARD IS
UNDER THE EASTERN RIDGE...AND BERMUDA HIGH. TEMPERATURES WHICH
STARTED THE WEEK WELL BLO NORMAL WILL SURGE TO 70S TUES...MID 70S
TO LOW 80S WED...THE 80S THURS AND TWRD 90 FRI.
WILL POPULATE WITH OVERNIGHT WPC GRIDS. ECMWF CLOSE ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO GFS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN IS RATHER PATCHY OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STRENGTHENS
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST. CEILINGS HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS.
STEADIER RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS AT ALL SITES. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF THE
RAIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT SO GOING VCSH WITH MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL
RADAR TRENDS CAN BE CHECKED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS HAVE INCREASED FROM THE WEST AT KALB...AND WEST TO NORTH WINDS
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING... BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT AROUND 10 KT BY
AFTERNOON...AND COULD GUST 15 KT TO 20 KT...THEN JUST BECOME STEADY
AT AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE AND LINGER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
INTO LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DRIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES. IT WILL
BRING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST...AND LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST.
THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PERIODS OF HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KOKX 241153
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
753 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AS THE FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
THEN LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES. SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
EASTERN COASTAL CONNECTICUT. THE FOG IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY SO WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS THIS.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HAS COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS A
250HPA JET AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER
DAYBREAK. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. WITH THE
FRONT MOVING SLOWLY...IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY
THAT EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA SEE THE WIND SHIFT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND
COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN FALL WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES OF LONG ISLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING
EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...AS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE AREA...A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION FROM SHOWERS TO MORE OF A
STRATIFORM RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POPS
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN LIKELY/CATEGORICAL.
ONCE AGAIN...FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S...WITH THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND THE
COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN. THIS WILL BE DUE TO COLD AIR FILTERING
IN ON A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT
OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS
WEEKEND. LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME
RATHER BRISK BY SAT AFTERNOON...FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH INTO
EARLY SAT EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
EITHER. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER
ERN CT/LONG ISLAND VIA SOME ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS DRY SLOT
PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY 55-60 AND DROPPING INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT.
STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY SAT NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS E OF NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY/ISOLD IN
NATURE ON SUNDAY VIA CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL COOL AND BREEZY ON SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S...AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
DRY WX AND A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF NYC.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS VEER TO THE NW BY MID TO LATE MORNING...AND INCREASE. THEN FOR
THE AFTERNOON...NW WINDS 15-20KT WITH GUSTS 25-29KT.
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH FLIGHT CATEGORIES. SOME VFR CIGS TO START...THEN
MVFR MOVING IN BY LATE MORNING.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z. WINDS MOSTLY SOUTH OF
310 MAGNETIC UNTIL AROUND 13-14Z...THEN NORTH OF IT THEREAFTER.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z. WINDS MOSTLY SOUTH OF
310 MAGNETIC UNTIL AROUND 15Z...THEN NORTH OF IT THEREAFTER.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z. WINDS MOSTLY SOUTH OF
310 MAGNETIC UNTIL AROUND 14Z...THEN NORTH OF IT THEREAFTER.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO BKN004 MIGHT NOT OCCUR THIS MORNING.
TIMING OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO BKN004 MIGHT NOT OCCUR THIS MORNING.
TIMING OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/VFR. SHOWERS. NW GUSTS 20-25KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR. SHOWERS. NW GUSTS 25-30KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. CHC AM SHOWERS. NW GUSTS 30-35KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN WATERS. FOG HAS
DEVELOPED AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 MILE. THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL 11AM. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ON THE
CENTRAL OCEAN WATERS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.
SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NON-OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND...SHOULD STRENGTHEN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE PUT UP A GALE WATCH FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN SOUND AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS...HAVE WENT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHERE GUSTS MAY FALL
JUST SHORT OF GALES. IT IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE SMALL CRAFT IS ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GALES MAY BE NEEDED.
CONDITIONS FALL BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF ON THE OCEAN AND THEN ERN SOUND/BAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE VIA BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE AN ADDITIONAL 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH OF RAINFALL WEST...AND
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH EAST...THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FOR THE
MOST PART...SMALL STREAM LEVELS HAVE STABILIZED THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY MINOR RISES EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2-3/4 OF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT - WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO DECREASE TO UNDER 1 INCH BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...THEN
ONLY MINIMAL QPF IN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ335-338-345.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340-
350.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ330-340-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BC/GOODMAN
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV
000
FXUS61 KBTV 241140
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS...WITH SOME
RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH SOME HIGH ELEVATION ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 717 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPDATED FCST TO DROP TEMPS BY 3 TO 5
DEGREES ACRS THE SLV AND 1 TO 3 DEGREES OVER THE CPV. ALSO...MADE
SEVERAL TWEAKS TO POPS BASED ON CRNT RADAR DATA. THE COMBINATION
OF LLVL CAA AND UPSLOPE FLW WL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL RAIN ACRS MOST
OF THE FA TODAY. HIGHEST POPS/QPF WL BE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
AND NORTHERN DACKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WL BE BTWN
0.10 AND 0.40". TEMPS WL REMAIN NEAR STEADY IN THE L/M 40S MTNS TO
NEAR 50 SLV/CPV. ALSO...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH CAN
BE ANTICIPATED...ADDING AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.
A LONG DURATION RAIN WITH SOME ACCUMULATING MTN
SNOW EVENT EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
BY SUNDAY...WITH SHARP RISES EXPECTED ON AREA WATERWAYS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN
CONUS THIS MORNING...AS BOTH NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ARE
PHASING. NOTICING LARGE PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC/SNE AS TROF BECMS NEGATIVELY TILTED. ALSO...DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT IS ROTATING ACRS THE SE CONUS. THESE FEATURES
COMBINED WITH A DUAL 25H JET STRUCTURE...SIMILAR TO A WINTER-TIME
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WL PRODUCE A COMPLEX WX SCENARIO ACRS OUR FA THIS WKND.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC A SHARP COLD FRNT IS MOVING ACRS OUR
CWA...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS WL EVENTUALLY
PUSH TWD THE COAST...WITH COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
RAINFALL...ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AND POST-FRONTAL
MOISTURE. EXPECT OCCASIONAL WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN TODAY...AS FA IS BTWN
SYSTEMS. GFS/NAM SHOW BEST 7H FGEN FORCING AND ASSOCIATED Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ACRS OUR CWA AFT 18Z. IN ADDITION...WARM MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH HEAVIEST QPF. WL
STILL MENTION CAT POPS...BUT QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE BTWN 0.10 AND
0.40" TODAY. TEMPS TODAY WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL STRUGGLE IN THE
U30S TO M40S MTNS TO L50S CPV/SLV TO NEAR 60F AT VSF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...POTENT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY WL ROUND MID/UPPER
LVL TROF BASE AND DEVELOP SFC LOW PRES NEAR CAPE COD BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WL QUICKLY BECM VERTICALLY AND NEGATIVELY
STACKED AS 7H/5H CIRCULATIONS DEEPEN AND BECOME CLOSED. THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WL ADVECT PLENTY OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BACK INTO OUR FA BTWN 850 AND 700MB...WHILE A VERY COLD AIR MASS IS
PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS VERY TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE RRQ OF 25H JET WL
PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP EVENT ACRS MOST OF
OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN DACKS INTO VT. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE
COASTAL SYSTEM WL HAVE A VERY WINTER-TIME THERMAL/JET STRUCTURE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION BAND OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
LAYER OMEGA FROM 18Z TODAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY. THIS BAND OF FAVORABLE
LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...WHICH
WL PRODUCE A LONG DURATION PRECIP EVENT. THE FGEN FORCING AND
DEFORMATION ZNS NW OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT
YOU SEE IN A WINTER TIME COASTAL...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE BACKSIDE
UPSLOPE PARAMETERS.
RAINFALL...EXPECT STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75"
FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 1.0 TO 2.0" CPV/EASTERN DACKS TO DOWNSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE NEK TO 1.50 TO 2.5"...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS
OF NORTH/CENTRAL VT BY 00Z MONDAY. THESE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER A 24 TO 48 PERIOD WL CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL RIVER AND LOW LYING FLOODING POSSIBLE.
NOTE...THIS WL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT WITH STEADY/MODERATE RAINFALL
RATES...WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM THURSDAY EVENT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF...THEREFORE NO
FLOOD WATCH WL BE ISSUED ATTM.
SNOWFALL...STILL HAVING A HARD TIME BELIEVING ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS ABOVE 2500 FT ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF PROFILES HAVE INDICATED
THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AS COLDER AIR IS
WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BLW 0C BY
TONIGHT...WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BLW 540DAM. THIS
COMBINED WITH SOME COOLING FROM STRONG DYNAMICS WL HELP TO PRODUCE
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACRS THE DACKS AND GREEN MTNS ABOVE
2500FT. WL TRY TO SHOW IN GRIDS...BUT IMPACTS WL BE MINIMAL GIVEN
THE HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THINKING A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
HEAVY WET SNOW WL BE POSSIBLE...WITH 6 INCHES OR SO FOR THE
SUMMITS FROM MT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS PARTS OF THE
EASTERN DACKS BY SUNDAY. BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS/WINDS...PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP AND A NORTH WIND WL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S SLV/CPV ON SAT/SUNDAY. THE TRENDS HAVE BEEN COOLER AND
COOLER IN THE GUIDANCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ON SAT
NIGHT...WITH PRECIP/CLOUDS...THINKING L/M 30S MTNS TO NEAR 40F CPV/SLV.
EXPECT A COLD/BLUSTERY AND WET DAY ON SUNDAY FOR MARATHON
ACTIVITIES IN BURLINGTON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LOW FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THUS BRINGING ANY
PRECIPITATION QUICKLY TO AN END. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...BUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN BY MIDWEEK AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NOTICEABLE WARMING
TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK AND COMBINED WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
MASS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS LIGHT RAIN. THERE WILL ALSO
BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA. THE WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST ALL AREAS
AT SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SFC
LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLEARING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...A LONG DURATION MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
IS ANTICIPATED FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES
ON LARGE STEM RIVERS. EXPECT STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM
0.25 TO 0.75" FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 1.0 TO 2.0" CPV/EASTERN
DACKS TO DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NEK TO 1.50 TO 2.5"...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS OF NORTH/CENTRAL VT BY 00Z MONDAY.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RECENT RAIN FROM CONVECTION WL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL MINOR LOW LYING FLOODING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL RIVERS TO APPROACH FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY. NO FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT IF CRNT TRENDS CONTINUE
ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH MAYBE NEEDED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS
HYDROLOGY...TABER
000
FXUS61 KALY 241129
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
729 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY. A STORM
WILL DEVELOP...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE STORM WILL DRAW MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND BRING DAMP WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK...WITH FAIR DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON RELATIVELY LITTLE COVERAGE OF RAIN AT THIS TIME...SOME
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING. RAIN
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
AS UPPER DYNAMICS AND BOUNDARY LAYER FRONTOGENESIS SUPPORT MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT RISE MUCH IF ANY...SO
KEEPING THE FALLING TEMPERATURES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE...WITH MORE RAIN DEVELOPING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW...INCLUDING WESTERN
AREAS...WHERE RAIN ASSOCIATED MORE DIRECTLY WITH THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD TRACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FALL...INTO THE 40S IN MANY AREAS...AND UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT AND IN LINE WITH PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE MODEL SUITE. ONLY DIFFERENCE IN 00UTC RUNS IS NAM
IS A BIT FASTER WITH PROGRESSION OF WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT
ITS BEEN THE FAST MODEL FOR SVRL RUNS...AND AT THIS TIME ITS
PROBABLY THE OUTLIER.
BY SAT MORNING THE 500HPA CUT OFF WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK...AND COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
BE CENTERED JUST OFF BOSTON. 500HPA CUT OFF WILL TAKE ON A NEG
TILT SAT...AND ENHANCE COOL CONVEYOR BELT PCPN FM COASTAL
LOW...BACK INTO MOST OF THE FCA. WITH COASTAL LOW ALMOST
VERTICAL...12MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NYS...IT SHOULD BE A RAW
NOVEMBER-ESQ DAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND A BRISK CHILLY
NORTH WIND. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -2 TO -4C OVER FCA...COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SNOW OVER HIGHEST TRRN. (YES ITS MAY 25TH IN NEW YORK WERE
TALKING ABOUT HERE). AT SFC HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE IN MID 40S TO
MID 50S...15-20 DEG BLO NRML. LOWS SAT NT WILL FALL TO MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ON EAST SIDE OF FCA AND
OVER HIR TRRN...DIMINISHING TWRD THE WEST. DURING SAT AND SAT NT
ANOTHER 0.30 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF IS FCST BY GFS...0.10 TO 0.5 BY
GEM...AND A TENTH TO AN INCH BY THE "FAST" NAM WHICH IS ALL EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER
THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS TAKE THE VERTICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY AND ONWARD INTO THE MARITIMES...IN LINE WITH
CURRENT FCST. PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCT -SHRA EAST...ISOLD -SHRA
WEST...TIED MAINLY TO LAST OF SHORT WVS SPIRALING AROUND 500HPA
CUT OFF...DIURNAL HEATING AND TRRN. CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH BREAKS OF SUN WILL INCR ALONG W PERIPHERY OF
FCA...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF AREA HAS A CHANCE TO SEE
SUNSET SUN EVENING. WITH LESS PCPN...SOME SUN MAX TEMPS WILL
RECOVER TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH SOME MID 60S SE ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE CUT OFF EXITS INTO LABRADOR...AND THE BEGINNINGS
OF THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TAKE SHAPE AS A 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM MISS VLY TO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND THEN STARTS BUILDING
EAST.
AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GRTLKS MONDAY...AND
ACROSS FCA MON NT. UNDER STRONG SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S IN VLYS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALB.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS UNDER
THE SFC HIGH...AND LOWS IN 30S AND LOW 40S. THERE MAY BE FROST AND
FREEZE ISSUES PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIR TRRN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN CHANGE THAT SET UP MONDAY...BECOMES THE DOMINATE
REGIME DURING THE EFP. 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS FM GULF COAST TO JAMES
BAY...THEN SHIFTS TO EASTERN SEABOARD. 590DM CLOSED HIGH OVER MUCH
OF EAST FROM LATE WED INTO WEEKEND. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN THERE FOR
DAYS IN GFS...AND THERE`S MORE AGREEMENT BTWN GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES IN DAYS 5-7 THAN IN THE SHORT TERM.
AT SFC COOLER BUT MODERATED CANADIAN HIGH HOLDS OVER RGN TUES
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE. WAA BEGINS POURING OVER TOP OF 500HPA
RIDGE AS SFC WMFNT SURGES THROUGH FCA TUES NT AND WED WITH
-SHRA/TSTMS. THIS HAS ALL THE HALLMARKS OF MCS RIDGE ROLLERS.
BY WED EVENING FCA AND MUCH OF USA FROM ROCKIES TO THE SEABOARD IS
UNDER THE EASTERN RIDGE...AND BERMUDA HIGH. TEMPERATURES WHICH
STARTED THE WEEK WELL BLO NORMAL WILL SURGE TO 70S TUES...MID 70S
TO LOW 80S WED...THE 80S THURS AND TWRD 90 FRI.
WILL POPULATE WITH OVERNIGHT WPC GRIDS. ECMWF CLOSE ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO GFS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN IS RATHER PATCHY OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STRENGTHENS
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST. CEILINGS HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS.
STEADIER RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS AT ALL SITES. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF THE
RAIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT SO GOING VCSH WITH MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL
RADAR TRENDS CAN BE CHECKED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS HAVE INCREASED FROM THE WEST AT KALB...AND WEST TO NORTH WINDS
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING... BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT AROUND 10 KT BY
AFTERNOON...AND COULD GUST 15 KT TO 20 KT...THEN JUST BECOME STEADY
AT AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE AND LINGER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
INTO LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DRIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES. IT WILL
BRING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST...AND LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST.
THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PERIODS OF HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KBUF 241121
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
721 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND A DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
RULE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
MAINLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING STILL SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN IS
WORKING INTO FAR WESTERN NY. AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY...THE
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF GRADUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH THE
COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH THIS TROF...IT IS EVEN COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME
SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER 1800 FEET OR SO IN THE WYOMING
HILLS AND SOUTHERN TIER. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL ALSO GIVE WAY
TO SOME INCREASE IN SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.
IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL PUT EVEN MORE A CHILL INTO THE AIR.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN...THEN CLOSE OFF
OVER SOUTHEAST NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW MAY GENERATE A
FEW MORE SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT.
FARTHER TO THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE A SHARP EAST TO WEST DECREASE IN
CLOUDS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH MID 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE MID 30S...THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST EXISTS.
HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THAT THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
OUR REGION WILL BE WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS FORECAST
TO STALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD IN
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NARROWED...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE.
REGARDLESS OF MODEL DIFFERENCES...THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
FAIR WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WHICH INCLUDES BUFFALO...ROCHESTER...AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THERE PROBABLY WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SHOWER EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW FINALLY DRIFTS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST REPRESENTS A CONSENSUS OF THE PAST
TWO RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM/SREF/EUROPEAN/GGEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT SHOULD
MODERATE A BIT ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY...AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT...EXPECT AN EARLY LAKE BREEZE SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...WITH SOME
PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. A MODEST GRADIENT AND WARMING 850MB
TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL ELSEWHERE...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. MOST OF THIS PERIOD
WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BUILDING EASTWARD. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE EAST
COAST...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR.
HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH LIKELY TO BE ACROSS OUR REGION. AFTER
THIS...A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER
LAKES...SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARD OUR REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BUT HAVE A LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WHEN IT WILL CROSS OUR REGION. THE 00Z GFS/GGEM
LIFT THE FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EUROPEAN
NEARLY A DAY SLOWER. FOR NOW...WITH GO WITH A PERSISTENT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WILL ALSO KEY EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO
THE LOWER 80S BY MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY EVEN WARMER
IF THE EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE VERIFIES.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD
FRONT. THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. IFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE
TO MVFR AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF. LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR...THEN SCATTER OUT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT TONIGHT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS GENERAL
TREND WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW THAT WILL BE STATIONED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
THE MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE LIFTING UP THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WIND AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
LEVELS NEEDED FOR A SCA.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LOZ042-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TJP
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...TJP
000
FXUS61 KBTV 241121
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS...WITH SOME
RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH SOME HIGH ELEVATION ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 717 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPDATED FCST TO DROP TEMPS BY 3 TO 5
DEGREES ACRS THE SLV AND 1 TO 3 DEGREES OVER THE CPV. ALSO...MADE
SEVERAL TWEAKS TO POPS BASED ON CRNT RADAR DATA. THE COMBINATION
OF LLVL CAA AND UPSLOPE FLW WL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL RAIN ACRS MOST
OF THE FA TODAY. HIGHEST POPS/QPF WL BE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
AND NORTHERN DACKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WL BE BTWN
0.10 AND 0.40". TEMPS WL REMAIN NEAR STEADY IN THE L/M 40S MTNS TO
NEAR 50 SLV/CPV. ALSO...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH CAN
BE ANTICIPATED...ADDING AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.
A LONG DURATION RAIN WITH SOME ACCUMULATING MTN
SNOW EVENT EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
BY SUNDAY...WITH SHARP RISES EXPECTED ON AREA WATERWAYS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN
CONUS THIS MORNING...AS BOTH NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ARE
PHASING. NOTICING LARGE PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC/SNE AS TROF BECMS NEGATIVELY TILTED. ALSO...DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT IS ROTATING ACRS THE SE CONUS. THESE FEATURES
COMBINED WITH A DUAL 25H JET STRUCTURE...SIMILAR TO A WINTER-TIME
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WL PRODUCE A COMPLEX WX SCENARIO ACRS OUR FA THIS WKND.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC A SHARP COLD FRNT IS MOVING ACRS OUR
CWA...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS WL EVENTUALLY
PUSH TWD THE COAST...WITH COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
RAINFALL...ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AND POST-FRONTAL
MOISTURE. EXPECT OCCASIONAL WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN TODAY...AS FA IS BTWN
SYSTEMS. GFS/NAM SHOW BEST 7H FGEN FORCING AND ASSOCIATED Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ACRS OUR CWA AFT 18Z. IN ADDITION...WARM MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH HEAVIEST QPF. WL
STILL MENTION CAT POPS...BUT QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE BTWN 0.10 AND
0.40" TODAY. TEMPS TODAY WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL STRUGGLE IN THE
U30S TO M40S MTNS TO L50S CPV/SLV TO NEAR 60F AT VSF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...POTENT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY WL ROUND MID/UPPER
LVL TROF BASE AND DEVELOP SFC LOW PRES NEAR CAPE COD BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WL QUICKLY BECM VERTICALLY AND NEGATIVELY
STACKED AS 7H/5H CIRCULATIONS DEEPEN AND BECOME CLOSED. THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WL ADVECT PLENTY OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BACK INTO OUR FA BTWN 850 AND 700MB...WHILE A VERY COLD AIRMASS IS
PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS VERY TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE RRQ OF 25H JET WL
PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP EVENT ACRS MOST OF
OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN DACKS INTO VT. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE
COASTAL SYSTEM WL HAVE A VERY WINTER-TIME THERMAL/JET STRUCTURE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION BAND OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
LAYER OMEGA FROM 18Z TODAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY. THIS BAND OF FAVORABLE
LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...WHICH
WL PRODUCE A LONG DURATION PRECIP EVENT. THE FGEN FORCING AND
DEFORMATION ZNS NW OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT
YOU SEE IN A WINTER TIME COASTAL...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE BACKSIDE
UPSLOPE PARAMETERS.
RAINFALL...EXPECT STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75"
FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 1.0 TO 2.0" CPV/EASTERN DACKS TO DOWNSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE NEK TO 1.50 TO 2.5"...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS
OF NORTH/CENTRAL VT BY 00Z MONDAY. THESE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER A 24 TO 48 PERIOD WL CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL RIVER AND LOW LYING FLOODING POSSIBLE.
NOTE...THIS WL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT WITH STEADY/MODERATE RAINFALL
RATES...WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM THURSDAY EVENT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF...THEREFORE NO
FLOOD WATCH WL BE ISSUED ATTM.
SNOWFALL...STILL HAVING A HARD TIME BELIEVING ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS ABOVE 2500 FT ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF PROFILES HAVE INDICATED
THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AS COLDER AIR IS
WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BLW 0C BY
TONIGHT...WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BLW 540DAM. THIS
COMBINED WITH SOME COOLING FROM STRONG DYNAMICS WL HELP TO PRODUCE
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACRS THE DACKS AND GREEN MTNS ABOVE
2500FT. WL TRY TO SHOW IN GRIDS...BUT IMPACTS WL BE MINIMAL GIVEN
THE HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THINKING A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
HEAVY WET SNOW WL BE POSSIBLE...WITH 6 INCHES OR SO FOR THE
SUMMITS FROM MT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS PARTS OF THE
EASTERN DACKS BY SUNDAY. BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS/WINDS...PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP AND A NORTH WIND WL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S SLV/CPV ON SAT/SUNDAY. THE TRENDS HAVE BEEN COOLER AND
COOLER IN THE GUIDANCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ON SAT
NIGHT...WITH PRECIP/CLOUDS...THINKING L/M 30S MTNS TO NEAR 40F CPV/SLV.
EXPECT A COLD/BLUSTERY AND WET DAY ON SUNDAY FOR MARATHON
ACTIVITIES IN BURLINGTON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LOW FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THUS BRINGING ANY
PRECIPITATION QUICKLY TO AN END. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...BUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN BY MIDWEEK AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NOTICEABLE WARMING
TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK AND COMBINED WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
MASS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS LIGHT RAIN. THERE WILL ALSO
BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA. THE WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST ALL AREAS
AT SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SFC
LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLEARING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...A LONG DURATION MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
IS ANTICIPATED FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES
ON LARGE STEM RIVERS. EXPECT STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM
0.25 TO 0.75" FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 1.0 TO 2.0" CPV/EASTERN
DACKS TO DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NEK TO 1.50 TO 2.5"...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS OF NORTH/CENTRAL VT BY 00Z MONDAY.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RECENT RAIN FROM CONVECTION WL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL MINOR LOW LYING FLOODING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL RIVERS TO APPROACH FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY. NO FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT IF CRNT TRENDS CONTINUE
ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH MAYBE NEEDED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KOKX 241100
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
700 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AS THE FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
THEN LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES. SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
EASTERN COASTAL CONNECTICUT. THE FOG IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY SO WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS THIS.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HAS COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS A
250HPA JET AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER
DAYBREAK. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. WITH THE
FRONT MOVING SLOWLY...IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY
THAT EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA SEE THE WIND SHIFT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND
COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN FALL WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES OF LONG ISLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING
EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...AS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE AREA...A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION FROM SHOWERS TO MORE OF A
STRATIFORM RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POPS
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN LIKELY/CATEGORICAL.
ONCE AGAIN...FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S...WITH THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND THE
COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN. THIS WILL BE DUE TO COLD AIR FILTERING
IN ON A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT
OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS
WEEKEND. LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME
RATHER BRISK BY SAT AFTERNOON...FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH INTO
EARLY SAT EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
EITHER. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER
ERN CT/LONG ISLAND VIA SOME ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS DRY SLOT
PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY 55-60 AND DROPPING INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT.
STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY SAT NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS E OF NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY/ISOLD IN
NATURE ON SUNDAY VIA CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL COOL AND BREEZY ON SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S...AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
DRY WX AND A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF NYC.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS VARYING IN DIRECTION BEFORE AROUND 12Z. WINDS THEN VEER
TO THE NW LATER IN THE MORNING AND INCREASE. FOR THE AFTERNOON...NW
WINDS 15-20KT WITH GUSTS 25-29KT.
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH FLIGHT CATEGORIES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
MORNING PUSH. TEMPO OR EXTENDED PERIODS OF SUB-VFR ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR THE CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS WEST.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC BKN008 AT TIMES BEFORE AROUND 14Z. TIMING
OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT
BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC BKN004 AT TIMES BEFORE AROUND 14Z. TIMING
OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT
BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z. WINDS MOSTLY SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL AROUND
15Z...THEN NORTH OF IT THEREAFTER.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC BKN009 AT TIMES BEFORE AROUND 14Z. TIMING
OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT
BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC BKN008 AT TIMES BEFORE AROUND 14Z. TIMING
OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT
BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN004 COULD PREVAIL FROM 11-14Z. TIMING OF
MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN004 COULD PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z INSTEAD OF
TEMPO. IMPROVEMENT TO OTHER FLIGHT CATEGORIES CAN BE AN HOUR OR TWO
OFF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/VFR. SHOWERS. NW GUSTS 20-25KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR. SHOWERS. NW GUSTS 25-30KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. CHC AM SHOWERS. NW GUSTS 30-35KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN WATERS. FOG HAS
DEVELOPED AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 MILE. THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL 11AM. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ON THE
CENTRAL OCEAN WATERS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.
SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NON-OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND...SHOULD STRENGTHEN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE PUT UP A GALE WATCH FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN SOUND AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS...HAVE WENT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHERE GUSTS MAY FALL
JUST SHORT OF GALES. IT IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE SMALL CRAFT IS ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GALES MAY BE NEEDED.
CONDITIONS FALL BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF ON THE OCEAN AND THEN ERN SOUND/BAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE VIA BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE AN ADDITIONAL 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH OF RAINFALL WEST...AND
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH EAST...THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FOR THE
MOST PART...SMALL STREAM LEVELS HAVE STABILIZED THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY MINOR RISES EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2-3/4 OF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT - WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO DECREASE TO UNDER 1 INCH BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...THEN
ONLY MINIMAL QPF IN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ335-338-345.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340-
350.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ330-340-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BC/GOODMAN
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV
000
FXUS61 KBGM 241056
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
656 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...IN THE
WAKE OF LAST NIGHT`S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TODAY...DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. AS THIS DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME...TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE. A STEADY WARMING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE... SFC COLD FRNT WAS SLICING THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THIS MRNG...HAVING REACHED OUR SERN ZNS AS OF THIS WRITING.
THE FRNT WILL HAVE CLEARED THE ENTIRE FA BY 10-11Z. TEMPS HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE UPR 30S-MID 40S OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA
ATTM...OWING TO STG LOW-LVL CAA POST-FROPA. AS FAR AS PCPN IS
CONCERNED...STEADIER SHRA HAVE NOW PUSHED WELL TO OUR E...AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE HAS BEEN SWEPT TWDS NEW ENG/NJ/NYC. HOWEVER...SCTD
-SHRA ARE STILL PREVALENT ALL THE WAY BACK TO WRN NY/SRN
ONT...WITH A SIG UPR-LVL TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE OH VLY ATTM.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY...-SHRA WILL LIKELY GROW IN
COVERAGE...SPCLY BY THIS AFTN...AS STG DPVA WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TDY...ALG WITH COOLING MID-LVL TEMPS. WE HAVE LOW CHC POPS/SCTD
VERBIAGE THIS AM...GOING TO LIKELY/CAT POPS BY EARLY AFTN FOR MOST
PLACES...PARTICULARLY OUR ERN ZNS.
TEMPS TDY WILL BE SOME 25-35 DEGS COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 40S ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
ONLY HOVER IN THE 50S MOST OTHER PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE... TEMPS WILL BE COLD TNT...WITH 30S TO LWR 40S
EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. NORMALLY...THIS WOULD BE AN EASY SITN FOR A
FROST ADVSY ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...ONLY OUR WRN ZNS ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE ANY CLEARING LATE TNT. ALSO...WINDS SHOULD STAY UP OVER THE
ENTIRE RGN...AS THE PRES GRADIENT STAYS TIGHT. THESE TWO FACTORS
SHOULD COMBINE TO MAKE FROST FORMATION UNLIKELY. IN FACT...OUR ERN
ZNS MAY WELL SEE CONTINUED SHWR ACTIVITY...AT LEAST THROUGH THE
EVE HRS.
SAT...ALTHOUGH SOME SCTD -SHRA MAY HANG ON OVER ERN SXNS...THEY
SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD...WITH THE AMPLIFIED ERN U.S. UPR TROUGH
STARTING TO PUSH SLOWLY EWD. ALSO...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST BREAKS
OF SUNSHINE MOST AREAS...PARTICULARLY OUT ACRS THE FINGER LKS RGN.
TEMPS...ALTHOUGH STAYING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND...REACHING THE MID 50S-LWR 60S IN
THE AFTN.
SAT NGT LOOKS COLD AGN...BUT ALSO STILL FAIRLY BREEZY...WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS SLOW TO BUILD IN. LTR SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO ASCERTAIN
IF THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF ENUF TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION. AT THIS
JUNCTURE...THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY.
SUN AND SUN NGT...THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE...WITH MORE
SUNSHINE ON SUN...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUN NGT. TEMPS WILL
REBOUND INTO THE 60S SUN AFTN...BUT ARE LIKELY TO DROP SHARPLY
AFTER SUNSET. BY SUN NGT/EARLY MON...BETTER RADIATING CONDS ARE
FORESEEN...SO FROST COULD DVLP IN OUR TYPICALLY COLDER AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE... AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS OFF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.
MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE COOL AIRMASS BECOMES MODIFIED. ON TUESDAY...850MB THERMAL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD BACK OVER CENTRAL NY AND N PA. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE THROUGH MID WEEK RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUES INTO WED ATTENDANT TO A WARM
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA.
PREV DISC... UPR LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NWRD OUT OF NEW ENG WHILE A NLY
FLOW OF COLD AIR CONTS OVER THE FCST AREA. STRONG SUN ANGLE HELPS
TOP MODIFY THE AIR MASS BUT IT WILL STILL BE COOLER THAN NRML FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES
LATE TUE INTO WED AS THE HI RETREATS AND WRM FNT OVER THE MIDWEST
PUSHES NE. MUCH WRMR AIR RETURNS FOR WED AND WITH THE FNT STILL
OVER NRN NY AND WRN NEW ENG...PSBLTY OF SOME TRWS THRU THE END OF
THE PD.
MODEL GUID IN LINE WITH HPC GUID WHICH WAS FOLLOWED FOR THIS FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL DIG ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PRODUCING OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY STATE...OR RISE SLIGHTLY BY A
CATEGORY FROM IFR-MVFR THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TAKES PLACE. HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS WILL BE
LAST TO RECOVER FROM THE MORE RESTRICTIVE CATEGORIES BY AROUND
NOON. THE COOL ADVECTING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PROLONG OVERCAST CIGS
LONGER THAN WHAT MODELS SUGGEST...SO HAVE NOT IMPROVED CIGS TO
HIGHER ALTITUDE VFR UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING AND HOPING THAT
TIMING WILL SUFFICE. MORE IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...ALBEIT BLUSTERY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 15-25 KTS...SUBSIDING AFTER 00Z TO
AROUND 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR CIGS.
SUN-MON...VFR NO CIG.
TUE...VFR. HIGH LVL CIGS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...JAB
000
FXUS61 KBUF 241032
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
632 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND A DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
RULE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
MAINLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING STILL SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN IS
WORKING INTO FAR WESTERN NY. AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY...THE SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF GRADUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING
WILL ALSO GIVE WAY TO SOME INCREASE IN SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.
IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL PUT EVEN MORE A CHILL INTO THE AIR.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN...THEN CLOSE OFF
OVER SOUTHEAST NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW MAY GENERATE A
FEW MORE SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT.
FARTHER TO THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE A SHARP EAST TO WEST DECREASE IN
CLOUDS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH MID 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE MID 30S...THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST EXISTS.
HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THAT THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
OUR REGION WILL BE WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS FORECAST
TO STALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD IN
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NARROWED...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE.
REGARDLESS OF MODEL DIFFERENCES...THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
FAIR WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WHICH INCLUDES BUFFALO...ROCHESTER...AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THERE PROBABLY WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SHOWER EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW FINALLY DRIFTS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST REPRESENTS A CONSENSUS OF THE PAST
TWO RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM/SREF/EUROPEAN/GGEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT SHOULD
MODERATE A BIT ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY...AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT...EXPECT AN EARLY LAKE BREEZE SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...WITH SOME
PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. A MODEST GRADIENT AND WARMING 850MB
TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL ELSEWHERE...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. MOST OF THIS PERIOD
WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BUILDING EASTWARD. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE EAST
COAST...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR.
HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH LIKELY TO BE ACROSS OUR REGION. AFTER
THIS...A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER
LAKES...SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARD OUR REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BUT HAVE A LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WHEN IT WILL CROSS OUR REGION. THE 00Z GFS/GGEM
LIFT THE FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EUROPEAN
NEARLY A DAY SLOWER. FOR NOW...WITH GO WITH A PERSISTENT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WILL ALSO KEY EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO
THE LOWER 80S BY MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY EVEN WARMER
IF THE EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE VERIFIES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD
FRONT. THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. IFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE
TO MVFR AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF. LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR...THEN SCATTER OUT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT TONIGHT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS GENERAL
TREND WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW THAT WILL BE STATIONED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
THE MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE LIFTING UP THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WIND AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
LEVELS NEEDED FOR A SCA.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LOZ042-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...TJP
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...TJP
000
FXUS61 KALY 241007
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
607 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY. A STORM
WILL DEVELOP...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE STORM WILL DRAW MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND BRING DAMP WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK...WITH FAIR DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON RELATIVELY LITTLE COVERAGE OF RAIN AT THIS TIME...SOME
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING. RAIN
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
AS UPPER DYNAMICS AND BOUNDARY LAYER FRONTOGENESIS SUPPORT MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT RISE MUCH IF ANY...SO
KEEPING THE FALLING TEMPERATURES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE...WITH MORE RAIN DEVELOPING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW...INCLUDING WESTERN
AREAS...WHERE RAIN ASSOCIATED MORE DIRECTLY WITH THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD TRACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FALL...INTO THE 40S IN MANY AREAS...AND UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE OOUTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT AND IN LINE WITH PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE MODEL SUITE. ONLY DIFFERENCE IN 00UTC RUNS IS NAM
IS A BIT FASTER WITH PROGRESSION OF WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT
ITS BEEN THE FAST MODEL FOR SVRL RUNS...AND AT THIS TIME ITS
PROBABLY THE OUTLIER.
BY SAT MORNING THE 500HPA CUT OFF WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK...AND COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
BE CENTERED JUST OFF BOSTON. 500HPA CUT OFF WILL TAKE ON A NEG
TILT SAT...AND ENHANCE COOL CONVEYOR BELT PCPN FM COASTAL
LOW...BACK INTO MOST OF THE FCA. WITH COASTAL LOW ALMOST
VERTICAL...12MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NYS...IT SHOULD BE A RAW
NOVEMBER-ESQ DAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND A BRISK CHILLY
NORTH WIND. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -2 TO -4C OVER FCA...COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SNOW OVER HIGHEST TRRN. (YES ITS MAY 25TH IN NEW YORK WERE
TALKING ABOUT HERE). AT SFC HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE IN MID 40S TO
MID 50S...15-20 DEG BLO NRML. LOWS SAT NT WILL FALL TO MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ON EAST SIDE OF FCA AND
OVER HIR TRRN...DIMINISHING TWRD THE WEST. DURING SAT AND SAT NT
ANOTHER 0.30 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF IS FCST BY GFS...0.10 TO 0.5 BY
GEM...AND A TENTH TO AN INCH BY THE "FAST" NAM WHICH IS ALL EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER
THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS TAKE THE VERTICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY AND ONWARD INTO THE MARITIMES...IN LINE WITH
CURRENT FCST. PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCT -SHRA EAST...ISOLD -SHRA
WEST...TIED MAINLY TO LAST OF SHORT WVS SPIRALING AROUND 500HPA
CUT OFF...DIURNAL HEATING AND TRRN. CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH BREAKS OF SUN WILL INCR ALONG W PERIPHERY OF
FCA...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF AREA HAS A CHANCE TO SEE
SUNSET SUN EVENING. WITH LESS PCPN...SOME SUN MAX TEMPS WILL
RECOVER TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH SOME MID 60S SE ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE CUT OFF EXITS INTO LABRADOR...AND THE BEGINNINGS
OF THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TAKE SHAPE AS A 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM MISS VLY TO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND THEN STARTS BUILDING
EAST.
AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GRTLKS MONDAY...AND
ACROSS FCA MON NT. UNDER STRONG SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S IN VLYS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALB.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS UNDER
THE SFC HIGH...AND LOWS IN 30S AND LOW 40S. THERE MAY BE FROST AND
FREEZE ISSUES PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIR TRRN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN CHANGE THAT SET UP MONDAY...BECOMES THE DOMINATE
REGIME DURING THE EFP. 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS FM GULF COAST TO JAMES
BAY...THEN SHIFTS TO EASTERN SEABOARD. 590DM CLOSED HIGH OVER MUCH
OF EAST FROM LATE WED INTO WEEKEND. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN THERE FOR
DAYS IN GFS...AND THERE`S MORE AGREEMENT BWTN GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES IN DAYS 5-7 THAN IN THE SHORT TERM.
AT SFC COOLER BUT MODERATED CANADIAN HIGH HOLDS OVER RGN TUES
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE. WAA BEGINS POURING OVER TOP OF 500HPA
RIDGE AS SFC WMFNT SURGES THROUGH FCA TUES NT AND WED WITH
-SHRA/TSTMS. THIS HAS ALL THE HALLMARKS OF MCS RIDGE ROLLERS.
BY WED EVENING FCA AND MUCH OF USA FROM ROCKIES TO THE SEABOARD IS
UNDER THE EASTERN RIDGE...AND BERMUDA HIGH. TEMPERATURES WHICH
STARTED THE WEEK WELL BLO NORMAL WILL SURGE TO 70S TUES...MID 70S
TO LOW 80S WED...THE 80S THURS AND TWRD 90 FRI.
WILL POPULATE WITH OVERNIGHT WPC GRIDS. ECMWF CLOSE ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO GFS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 06Z SATURDAY. WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY...IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE...WITH OCCASIONAL
FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AFTER 01Z-03Z...VCSH WITH
POTENTIAL SLOW IMPROVEMENTS TO CEILINGS INTO SOLID MVFR...BORDERING
ON LOW VFR. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO SHIFT A BIT EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY THE EVENING...VISIBILITIES COULD IMPROVE TO VFR.
LIGHT WEST OT NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME
NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AT AROUND 10 KT. THERE COULD BE
SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 15 KT AND 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT REMAINING STEADY AROUND 10 KT THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE AND LINGER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
INTO LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DRIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES. IT WILL
BRING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST...AND LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST.
THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PERIODS OF HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KOKX 240855
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
455 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AS THE FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
THEN LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HAS COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS A
250HPA JET AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER
DAYBREAK. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. WITH THE
FRONT MOVING SLOWLY...IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY
THAT EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA SEE THE WIND SHIFT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND
COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN FALL WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING
EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...AS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE AREA...A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION FROM SHOWERS TO MORE OF A
STRATIFORM RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POPS
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN LIKELY/CATEGORICAL.
ONCE AGAIN...FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S...WITH THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND THE
COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN. THIS WILL BE DUE TO COLD AIR FILTERING
IN ON A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT
OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS
WEEKEND. LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME
RATHER BRISK BY SAT AFTERNOON...FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH INTO
EARLY SAT EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
EITHER. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER
ERN CT/LONG ISLAND VIA SOME ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS DRY SLOT
PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY 55-60 AND DROPPING INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT.
STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY SAT NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS E OF NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY/ISOLD IN
NATURE ON SUNDAY VIA CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL COOL AND BREEZY ON SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S...AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
DRY WX AND A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF NYC.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS VARYING IN DIRECTION BEFORE AROUND 12Z. WINDS THEN VEER
TO THE NW LATER IN THE MORNING AND INCREASE. FOR THE AFTERNOON...NW
WINDS 15-20KT WITH GUSTS 25-29KT.
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH FLIGHT CATEGORIES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
MORNING PUSH. TEMPO OR EXTENDED PERIODS OF SUB-VFR ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR THE CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS WEST.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC BKN008 AT TIMES BEFORE AROUND 14Z. TIMING
OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT
BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC BKN004 AT TIMES BEFORE AROUND 14Z. TIMING
OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT
BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z. WINDS MOSTLY SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL AROUND
15Z...THEN NORTH OF IT THEREAFTER.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC BKN009 AT TIMES BEFORE AROUND 14Z. TIMING
OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT
BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC BKN008 AT TIMES BEFORE AROUND 14Z. TIMING
OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT
BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN004 COULD PREVAIL FROM 11-14Z. TIMING OF
MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN004 COULD PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z INSTEAD OF
TEMPO. IMPROVEMENT TO OTHER FLIGHT CATEGORIES CAN BE AN HOUR OR TWO
OFF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/VFR. SHOWERS. NW GUSTS 20-25KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR. SHOWERS. NW GUSTS 25-30KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. CHC AM SHOWERS. NW GUSTS 30-35KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NON-OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND...SHOULD STRENGTHEN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE PUT UP A GALE WATCH FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN SOUND AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS...HAVE WENT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHERE GUSTS MAY FALL
JUST SHORT OF GALES. IT IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE SMALL CRAFT IS ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GALES MAY BE NEEDED.
CONDITIONS FALL BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF ON THE OCEAN AND THEN ERN SOUND/BAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE VIA BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE AN ADDITIONAL 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH OF RAINFALL WEST...AND
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH EAST...THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FOR THE
MOST PART...SMALL STREAM LEVELS HAVE STABILIZED THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY MINOR RISES EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2-3/4 OF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT - WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO DECREASE TO UNDER 1 INCH BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...THEN
ONLY MINIMAL QPF IN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ335-338-345.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ330-340-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BC/GOODMAN
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV
000
FXUS61 KBGM 240854
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
454 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...IN THE
WAKE OF LAST NIGHT`S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TODAY...DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. AS THIS DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME...TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE. A STEADY WARMING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE... SFC COLD FRNT WAS SLICING THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THIS MRNG...HAVING REACHED OUR SERN ZNS AS OF THIS WRITING.
THE FRNT WILL HAVE CLEARED THE ENTIRE FA BY 10-11Z. TEMPS HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE UPR 30S-MID 40S OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA
ATTM...OWING TO STG LOW-LVL CAA POST-FROPA. AS FAR AS PCPN IS
CONCERNED...STEADIER SHRA HAVE NOW PUSHED WELL TO OUR E...AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE HAS BEEN SWEPT TWDS NEW ENG/NJ/NYC. HOWEVER...SCTD
-SHRA ARE STILL PREVALENT ALL THE WAY BACK TO WRN NY/SRN
ONT...WITH A SIG UPR-LVL TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE OH VLY ATTM.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY...-SHRA WILL LIKELY GROW IN
COVERAGE...SPCLY BY THIS AFTN...AS STG DPVA WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TDY...ALG WITH COOLING MID-LVL TEMPS. WE HAVE LOW CHC POPS/SCTD
VERBIAGE THIS AM...GOING TO LIKELY/CAT POPS BY EARLY AFTN FOR MOST
PLACES...PARTICULARLY OUR ERN ZNS.
TEMPS TDY WILL BE SOME 25-35 DEGS COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 40S ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
ONLY HOVER IN THE 50S MOST OTHER PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE... TEMPS WILL BE COLD TNT...WITH 30S TO LWR 40S
EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. NORMALLY...THIS WOULD BE AN EASY SITN FOR A
FROST ADVSY ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...ONLY OUR WRN ZNS ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE ANY CLEARING LATE TNT. ALSO...WINDS SHOULD STAY UP OVER THE
ENTIRE RGN...AS THE PRES GRADIENT STAYS TIGHT. THESE TWO FACTORS
SHOULD COMBINE TO MAKE FROST FORMATION UNLIKELY. IN FACT...OUR ERN
ZNS MAY WELL SEE CONTINUED SHWR ACTIVITY...AT LEAST THROUGH THE
EVE HRS.
SAT...ALTHOUGH SOME SCTD -SHRA MAY HANG ON OVER ERN SXNS...THEY
SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD...WITH THE AMPLIFIED ERN U.S. UPR TROUGH
STARTING TO PUSH SLOWLY EWD. ALSO...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST BREAKS
OF SUNSHINE MOST AREAS...PARTICULARLY OUT ACRS THE FINGER LKS RGN.
TEMPS...ALTHOUGH STAYING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND...REACHING THE MID 50S-LWR 60S IN
THE AFTN.
SAT NGT LOOKS COLD AGN...BUT ALSO STILL FAIRLY BREEZY...WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS SLOW TO BUILD IN. LTR SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO ASCERTAIN
IF THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF ENUF TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION. AT THIS
JUNCTURE...THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY.
SUN AND SUN NGT...THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE...WITH MORE
SUNSHINE ON SUN...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUN NGT. TEMPS WILL
REBOUND INTO THE 60S SUN AFTN...BUT ARE LIKELY TO DROP SHARPLY
AFTER SUNSET. BY SUN NGT/EARLY MON...BETTER RADIATING CONDS ARE
FORESEEN...SO FROST COULD DVLP IN OUR TYPICALLY COLDER AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE... AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS OFF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.
MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE COOL AIRMASS BECOMES MODIFIED. ON TUESDAY...850MB THERMAL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD BACK OVER CENTRAL NY AND N PA. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE THROUGH MID WEEK RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUES INTO WED ATTENDANT TO A WARM
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA.
PREV DISC... UPR LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NWRD OUT OF NEW ENG WHILE A NLY
FLOW OF COLD AIR CONTS OVER THE FCST AREA. STRONG SUN ANGLE HELPS
TOP MODIFY THE AIR MASS BUT IT WILL STILL BE COOLER THAN NRML FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES
LATE TUE INTO WED AS THE HI RETREATS AND WRM FNT OVER THE MIDWEST
PUSHES NE. MUCH WRMR AIR RETURNS FOR WED AND WITH THE FNT STILL
OVER NRN NY AND WRN NEW ENG...PSBLTY OF SOME TRWS THRU THE END OF
THE PD.
MODEL GUID IN LINE WITH HPC GUID WHICH WAS FOLLOWED FOR THIS FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT...AND HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH IFR
AND BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUM CATEGORIES MOSTLY EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
AIRPORT MINIMUMS MAY BE EXCEEDED AT TIMES EARLY...ESPECIALLY AT
THE ELEVATED TERMINALS. AFTER 12Z...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY A
CATEGORY OR TWO MAY OCCUR...HOWEVER SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE BELOW
STRENGTHENING INVERSION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP
CLOUDS TRAPPED IN THE REGION LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST. FOR THAT
REASON...HAVE HELD ONTO AT LEAST MVFR CIGS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS
WELL INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES
WITH BEST CONCENTRATION AFTER ABOUT 16Z TODAY...HOWEVER THESE
SHOULD NOT ADD ANY DIFFERENCE TO THE ALREADY RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS.
WINDS BECOMING POST FRONTAL EARLY TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASINGLY GUSTY 15-25 KTS...SUBSIDING AFTER 00Z TO 5-10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR CIGS.
SUN-MON...VFR NO CIG.
TUE...VFR. HIGH LVL CIGS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM/KH
AVIATION...JAB
000
FXUS61 KBTV 240821
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
421 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS...WITH SOME
RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH SOME HIGH ELEVATION ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...A LONG DURATION RAIN WITH SOME ACCUMULATING MTN
SNOW EVENT EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
BY SUNDAY...WITH SHARP RISES EXPECTED ON AREA WATERWAYS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN
CONUS THIS MORNING...AS BOTH NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ARE
PHASING. NOTICING LARGE PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC/SNE AS TROF BECMS NEGATIVELY TILTED. ALSO...DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT IS ROTATING ACRS THE SE CONUS. THESE FEATURES
COMBINED WITH A DUAL 25H JET STRUCTURE...SIMILAR TO A WINTER-TIME
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WL PRODUCE A COMPLEX WX SCENARIO ACRS OUR FA THIS WKND.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC A SHARP COLD FRNT IS MOVING ACRS OUR
CWA...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS WL EVENTUALLY
PUSH TWD THE COAST...WITH COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
RAINFALL...ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AND POST-FRONTAL
MOISTURE. EXPECT OCCASIONAL WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN TODAY...AS FA IS BTWN
SYSTEMS. GFS/NAM SHOW BEST 7H FGEN FORCING AND ASSOCIATED Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ACRS OUR CWA AFT 18Z. IN ADDITION...WARM MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH HEAVIEST QPF. WL
STILL MENTION CAT POPS...BUT QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE BTWN 0.10 AND
0.40" TODAY. TEMPS TODAY WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL STRUGGLE IN THE
U30S TO M40S MTNS TO L50S CPV/SLV TO NEAR 60F AT VSF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...POTENT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY WL ROUND MID/UPPER
LVL TROF BASE AND DEVELOP SFC LOW PRES NEAR CAPE COD BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WL QUICKLY BECM VERTICALLY AND NEGATIVELY
STACKED AS 7H/5H CIRCULATIONS DEEPEN AND BECOME CLOSED. THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WL ADVECT PLENTY OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BACK INTO OUR FA BTWN 850 AND 700MB...WHILE A VERY COLD AIRMASS IS
PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS VERY TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE RRQ OF 25H JET WL
PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP EVENT ACRS MOST OF
OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN DACKS INTO VT. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE
COASTAL SYSTEM WL HAVE A VERY WINTER-TIME THERMAL/JET STRUCTURE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION BAND OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
LAYER OMEGA FROM 18Z TODAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY. THIS BAND OF FAVORABLE
LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...WHICH
WL PRODUCE A LONG DURATION PRECIP EVENT. THE FGEN FORCING AND
DEFORMATION ZNS NW OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT
YOU SEE IN A WINTER TIME COASTAL...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE BACKSIDE
UPSLOPE PARAMETERS.
RAINFALL...EXPECT STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75"
FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 1.0 TO 2.0" CPV/EASTERN DACKS TO DOWNSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE NEK TO 1.50 TO 2.5"...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS
OF NORTH/CENTRAL VT BY 00Z MONDAY. THESE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER A 24 TO 48 PERIOD WL CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL RIVER AND LOW LYING FLOODING POSSIBLE.
NOTE...THIS WL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT WITH STEADY/MODERATE RAINFALL
RATES...WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM THURSDAY EVENT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF...THEREFORE NO
FLOOD WATCH WL BE ISSUED ATTM.
SNOWFALL...STILL HAVING A HARD TIME BELIEVING ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS ABOVE 2500 FT ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF PROFILES HAVE INDICATED
THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AS COLDER AIR IS
WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BLW 0C BY
TONIGHT...WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BLW 540DAM. THIS
COMBINED WITH SOME COOLING FROM STRONG DYNAMICS WL HELP TO PRODUCE
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACRS THE DACKS AND GREEN MTNS ABOVE
2500FT. WL TRY TO SHOW IN GRIDS...BUT IMPACTS WL BE MINIMAL GIVEN
THE HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THINKING A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
HEAVY WET SNOW WL BE POSSIBLE...WITH 6 INCHES OR SO FOR THE
SUMMITS FROM MT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS PARTS OF THE
EASTERN DACKS BY SUNDAY. BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS/WINDS...PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP AND A NORTH WIND WL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S SLV/CPV ON SAT/SUNDAY. THE TRENDS HAVE BEEN COOLER AND
COOLER IN THE GUIDANCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ON SAT
NIGHT...WITH PRECIP/CLOUDS...THINKING L/M 30S MTNS TO NEAR 40F CPV/SLV.
EXPECT A COLD/BLUSTERY AND WET DAY ON SUNDAY FOR MARATHON
ACTIVITIES IN BURLINGTON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LOW FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THUS BRINGING ANY
PRECIPITATION QUICKLY TO AN END. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...BUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN BY MIDWEEK AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NOTICEABLE WARMING
TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK AND COMBINED WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
MASS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS LIGHT RAIN. THERE WILL ALSO
BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA. THE WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST ALL AREAS
AT SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SFC
LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLEARING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...A LONG DURATION MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
IS ANTICIPATED FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES
ON LARGE STEM RIVERS. EXPECT STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM
0.25 TO 0.75" FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 1.0 TO 2.0" CPV/EASTERN
DACKS TO DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NEK TO 1.50 TO 2.5"...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS OF NORTH/CENTRAL VT BY 00Z MONDAY.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RECENT RAIN FROM CONVECTION WL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL MINOR LOW LYING FLOODING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL RIVERS TO APPROACH FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY. NO FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT IF CRNT TRENDS CONTINUE
ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH MAYBE NEEDED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS
HYDROLOGY...TABER
000
FXUS61 KOKX 240819
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
419 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AS THE FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
THEN LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HAS COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS A
250HPA JET AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER
DAYBREAK. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. WITH THE
FRONT MOVING SLOWLY...IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY
THAT EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA SEE THE WIND SHIFT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND
COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN FALL WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING
EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...AS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE AREA...A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION FROM SHOWERS TO MORE OF A
STRATIFORM RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POPS
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN LIKELY/CATEGORICAL.
ONCE AGAIN...FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S...WITH THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND THE
COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN. THIS WILL BE DUE TO COLD AIR FILTERING
IN ON A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT
OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS
WEEKEND. LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME
RATHER BRISK BY SAT AFTERNOON...FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH INTO
EARLY SAT EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
EITHER. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER
ERN CT/LONG ISLAND VIA SOME ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS DRY SLOT
PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY 55-60 AND DROPPING INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT.
STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY SAT NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS E OF NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY/ISOLD IN
NATURE ON SUNDAY VIA CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL COOL AND BREEZY ON SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S...AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
DRY WX AND A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF NYC.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE CITY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT THEN PASSES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS VARYING IN DIRECTION BEFORE SUNRISE DUE TO TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH...BUT MOSTLY S-SW. WINDS THEN VEER TO THE NW TOWARDS THE END
OF THE MORNING PUSH AND INCREASE. FOR THE AFTERNOON...NW WINDS
15-20KT WITH GUSTS 25-29KT.
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH FLIGHT CATEGORIES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
MORNING PUSH. TEMPO OR EXTENDED PERIODS OF VFR ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS WEST AS A NARROW WEDGE OF VFR CONDITIONS
TRIES TO SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS. MVFR TO IFR IN SHOWERS...FOG AND
STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO IFR. N WIND 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. NW WIND
20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NON-OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND...SHOULD STRENGTHEN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE PUT UP A GALE WATCH FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN SOUND AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS...HAVE WENT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHERE GUSTS MAY FALL
JUST SHORT OF GALES. IT IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE SMALL CRAFT IS ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GALES MAY BE NEEDED.
CONDITIONS FALL BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF ON THE OCEAN AND THEN ERN SOUND/BAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE VIA BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE AN ADDITIONAL 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH OF RAINFALL WEST...AND
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH EAST...THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FOR THE
MOST PART...SMALL STREAM LEVELS HAVE STABILIZED THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY MINOR RISES EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2-3/4 OF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT - WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO DECREASE TO UNDER 1 INCH BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...THEN
ONLY MINIMAL QPF IN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ335-338-345.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ330-340-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BC/GOODMAN
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV
000
FXUS61 KBUF 240730
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
330 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND A DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
RULE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
MAINLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE STEADIEST RAIN IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHERE THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE AND ADDED LIFT IN THE
RRQ OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC.
WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AS THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE THAT IS
STILL IN PLACE.
AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER TODAY...THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF GRADUALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME
INCREASE IN SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK. IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL PUT EVEN MORE A CHILL INTO
THE AIR.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN...THEN CLOSE OFF
OVER SOUTHEAST NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. FARTHER TO THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE A
SHARP EAST TO WEST DECREASE IN CLOUDS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND
ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE MID
30S...THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST INCREASES. HOWEVER...FEEL THAT THE
NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
OUR REGION WILL BE WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS FORECAST
TO STALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD IN
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NARROWED...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE.
REGARDLESS OF MODEL DIFFERENCES...THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
FAIR WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WHICH INCLUDES BUFFALO...ROCHESTER...AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THERE PROBABLY WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SHOWER EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW FINALLY DRIFTS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST REPRESENTS A CONSENSUS OF THE PAST
TWO RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM/SREF/EUROPEAN/GGEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT SHOULD
MODERATE A BIT ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY...AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT...EXPECT AN EARLY LAKE BREEZE SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...WITH SOME
PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. A MODEST GRADIENT AND WARMING 850MB
TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL ELSEWHERE...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. MOST OF THIS PERIOD
WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BUILDING EASTWARD. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE EAST
COAST...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR.
HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH LIKELY TO BE ACROSS OUR REGION. AFTER
THIS...A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER
LAKES...SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARD OUR REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BUT HAVE A LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WHEN IT WILL CROSS OUR REGION. THE 00Z GFS/GGEM
LIFT THE FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EUROPEAN
NEARLY A DAY SLOWER. FOR NOW...WITH GO WITH A PERSISTENT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WILL ALSO KEY EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO
THE LOWER 80S BY MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY EVEN WARMER
IF THE EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE VERIFIES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD
FRONT. THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. IFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE
TO MVFR AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF. LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR...THEN SCATTER OUT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT TONIGHT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS GENERAL
TREND WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW THAT WILL BE STATIONED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
THE MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE LIFTING UP THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WIND AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
LEVELS NEEDED FOR A SCA.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LOZ042-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...TJP
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...TJP
000
FXUS61 KALY 240729
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
327 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY. A STORM
WILL DEVELOP...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE STORM WILL DRAW MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND BRING DAMP WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK...WITH FAIR DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS BEING CANCELED SINCE THERE IS NO MORE
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL IN THE REGION...AND A STEADIER LONG TERM RAIN IS
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LOW STILL FORMING...AND AREA OF RAIN IS SLOWLY BUILDING EAST.
RAIN COVERAGE IS A BIT PATCHIER TO THE WEST...BUT EVEN WESTERN AREAS
SHOULD SEE OCCASIONAL RAIN...JUST NOT AS STEADY AS EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY IS MOSTLY
THROUGH THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS HAVE GONE CALM IN SOME AREAS.
UPSTREAM...THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE STRONGER AND THESE WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY IN
MOST AREAS. SOME WESTERN AREAS COULD RECOVER A COUPLE OF DEGREES
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SETS UP.
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST...SO
EVEN WITH RAIN...EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COULD RISE A
DEGREE OR TWO...BUT AGAIN...FOR ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY THEN SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE...WITH MORE RAIN DEVELOPING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW...INCLUDING WESTERN
AREAS...WHERE RAIN ASSOCIATED MORE DIRECTLY WITH THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD TRACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FALL...INTO THE 40S IN MANY AREAS...AND UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE OOUTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT AND IN LINE WITH PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE MODEL SUITE. ONLY DIFFERENCE IN 00UTC RUNS IS NAM
IS A BIT FASTER WITH PROGRESSION OF WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT
ITS BEEN THE FAST MODEL FOR SVRL RUNS...AND AT THIS TIME ITS
PROBABLY THE OUTLIER.
BY SAT MORNING THE 500HPA CUT OFF WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK...AND COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
BE CENTERED JUST OFF BOSTON. 500HPA CUT OFF WILL TAKE ON A NEG
TILT SAT...AND ENHANCE COOL CONVEYOR BELT PCPN FM COASTAL
LOW...BACK INTO MOST OF THE FCA. WITH COASTAL LOW ALMOST
VERTICAL...12MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NYS...IT SHOULD BE A RAW
NOVEMBER-ESQ DAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND A BRISK CHILLY
NORTH WIND. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -2 TO -4C OVER FCA...COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SNOW OVER HIGHEST TRRN. (YES ITS MAY 25TH IN NEW YORK WERE
TALKING ABOUT HERE). AT SFC HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE IN MID 40S TO
MID 50S...15-20 DEG BLO NRML. LOWS SAT NT WILL FALL TO MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ON EAST SIDE OF FCA AND
OVER HIR TRRN...DIMINISHING TWRD THE WEST. DURING SAT AND SAT NT
ANOTHER 0.30 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF IS FCST BY GFS...0.10 TO 0.5 BY
GEM...AND A TENTH TO AN INCH BY THE "FAST" NAM WHICH IS ALL EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER
THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS TAKE THE VERTICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY AND ONWARD INTO THE MARITIMES...IN LINE WITH
CURRENT FCST. PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCT -SHRA EAST...ISOLD -SHRA
WEST...TIED MAINLY TO LAST OF SHORT WVS SPIRALING AROUND 500HPA
CUT OFF...DIURNAL HEATING AND TRRN. CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH BREAKS OF SUN WILL INCR ALONG W PERIPHERY OF
FCA...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF AREA HAS A CHANCE TO SEE
SUNSET SUN EVENING. WITH LESS PCPN...SOME SUN MAX TEMPS WILL
RECOVER TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH SOME MID 60S SE ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE CUT OFF EXITS INTO LABRADOR...AND THE BEGINNINGS
OF THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TAKE SHAPE AS A 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM MISS VLY TO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND THEN STARTS BUILDING
EAST.
AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GRTLKS MONDAY...AND
ACROSS FCA MON NT. UNDER STRONG SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S IN VLYS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALB.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS UNDER
THE SFC HIGH...AND LOWS IN 30S AND LOW 40S. THERE MAY BE FROST AND
FREEZE ISSUES PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIR TRRN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN CHANGE THAT SET UP MONDAY...BECOMES THE DOMINATE
REGIME DURING THE EFP. 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS FM GULF COAST TO JAMES
BAY...THEN SHIFTS TO EASTERN SEABOARD. 590DM CLOSED HIGH OVER MUCH
OF EAST FROM LATE WED INTO WEEKEND. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN THERE FOR
DAYS IN GFS...AND THERE`S MORE AGREEMENT BWTN GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES IN DAYS 5-7 THAN IN THE SHORT TERM.
AT SFC COOLER BUT MODERATED CANADIAN HIGH HOLDS OVER RGN TUES
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE. WAA BEGINS POURING OVER TOP OF 500HPA
RIDGE AS SFC WMFNT SURGES THROUGH FCA TUES NT AND WED WITH
-SHRA/TSTMS. THIS HAS ALL THE HALLMARKS OF MCS RIDGE ROLLERS.
BY WED EVENING FCA AND MUCH OF USA FROM ROCKIES TO THE SEABOARD IS
UNDER THE EASTERN RIDGE...AND BERMUDA HIGH. TEMPERATURES WHICH
STARTED THE WEEK WELL BLO NORMAL WILL SURGE TO 70S TUES...MID 70S
TO LOW 80S WED...THE 80S THURS AND TWRD 90 FRI.
WILL POPULATE WITH OVERNIGHT WPC GRIDS. ECMWF CLOSE ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO GFS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 06Z SATURDAY. WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY...IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE...WITH OCCASIONAL
FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AFTER 01Z-03Z...VCSH WITH
POTENTIAL SLOW IMPROVEMENTS TO CEILINGS INTO SOLID MVFR...BORDERING
ON LOW VFR. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO SHIFT A BIT EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY THE EVENING...VISIBILITIES COULD IMPROVE TO VFR.
LIGHT WEST OT NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME
NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AT AROUND 10 KT. THERE COULD BE
SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 15 KT AND 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT REMAINING STEADY AROUND 10 KT THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE AND LINGER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
INTO LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DRIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES. IT WILL
BRING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST...AND LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST.
THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PERIODS OF HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KALY 240727
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
327 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY. A STORM WILL
DEVELOP...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE STORM WILL DRAW MUCH COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AND BRING DAMP WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK...WITH FAIR
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LASH FLOOD WATCH IS BEING CANCELED SINCE THERE IS NO MORE
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL IN THE REGION...AND A STEADIER LONG TERM RAIN IS
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LOW STILL FORMING...AND AREA OF RAIN IS SLOWLY BUILDING EAST.
RAIN COVERAGE IS A BIT PATCHIER TO THE WEST...BUT EVEN WESTERN AREAS
SHOULD SEE OCCASIONAL RAIN...JUST NOT AS STEADY AS EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY IS MOSTLY
THROUGH THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS HAVE GONE CALM IN SOME AREAS.
UPSTREAM...THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE STRONGER AND THESE WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY IN
MOST AREAS. SOME WESTERN AREAS COULD RECOVER A COUPLE OF DEGREES
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SETS UP.
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST...SO
EVEN WITH RAIN...EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COULD RISE A
DEGREE OR TWO...BUT AGAIN...FOR ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY THEN SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE...WITH MORE RAIN DEVELOPING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW...INCLUDING WESTERN
AREAS...WHERE RAIN ASSOCIATED MORE DIRECTLY WITH THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD TRACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FALL...INTO THE 40S IN MANY AREAS...AND UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE OOUTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT AND IN LINE WITH PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE MODEL SUITE. ONLY DIFFERENCE IN 00UTC RUNS IS NAM
IS A BIT FASTER WITH PROGRESSION OF WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT
ITS BEEN THE FAST MODEL FOR SVRL RUNS...AND AT THIS TIME ITS
PROBABLY THE OUTLIER.
BY SAT MORNING THE 500HPA CUT OFF WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK...AND COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
BE CENTERED JUST OFF BOSTON. 500HPA CUT OFF WILL TAKE ON A NEG
TILT SAT...AND ENHANCE COOL CONVEYOR BELT PCPN FM COASTAL
LOW...BACK INTO MOST OF THE FCA. WITH COASTAL LOW ALMOST
VERTICAL...12MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NYS...IT SHOULD BE A RAW
NOVEMBER-ESQ DAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND A BRISK CHILLY
NORTH WIND. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -2 TO -4C OVER FCA...COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SNOW OVER HIGHEST TRRN. (YES ITS MAY 25TH IN NEW YORK WERE
TALKING ABOUT HERE). AT SFC HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE IN MID 40S TO
MID 50S...15-20 DEG BLO NRML. LOWS SAT NT WILL FALL TO MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ON EAST SIDE OF FCA AND
OVER HIR TRRN...DIMINISHING TWRD THE WEST. DURING SAT AND SAT NT
ANOTHER 0.30 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF IS FCST BY GFS...0.10 TO 0.5 BY
GEM...AND A TENTH TO AN INCH BY THE "FAST" NAM WHICH IS ALL EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER
THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS TAKE THE VERTICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY AND ONWARD INTO THE MARITIMES...IN LINE WITH
CURRENT FCST. PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCT -SHRA EAST...ISOLD -SHRA
WEST...TIED MAINLY TO LAST OF SHORT WVS SPIRALING AROUND 500HPA
CUT OFF...DIURNAL HEATING AND TRRN. CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH BREAKS OF SUN WILL INCR ALONG W PERIPHERY OF
FCA...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF AREA HAS A CHANCE TO SEE
SUNSET SUN EVENING. WITH LESS PCPN...SOME SUN MAX TEMPS WILL
RECOVER TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH SOME MID 60S SE ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE CUT OFF EXITS INTO LABRADOR...AND THE BEGINNINGS
OF THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TAKE SHAPE AS A 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM MISS VLY TO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND THEN STARTS BUILDING
EAST.
AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GRTLKS MONDAY...AND
ACROSS FCA MON NT. UNDER STRONG SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S IN VLYS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALB.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS UNDER
THE SFC HIGH...AND LOWS IN 30S AND LOW 40S. THERE MAY BE FROST AND
FREEZE ISSUES PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIR TRRN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN CHANGE THAT SET UP MONDAY...BECOMES THE DOMINATE
REGIME DURING THE EFP. 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS FM GULF COAST TO JAMES
BAY...THEN SHIFTS TO EASTERN SEABOARD. 590DM CLOSED HIGH OVER MUCH
OF EAST FROM LATE WED INTO WEEKEND. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN THERE FOR
DAYS IN GFS...AND THERE`S MORE AGREEMENT BWTN GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES IN DAYS 5-7 THAN IN THE SHORT TERM.
AT SFC COOLER BUT MODERATED CANADIAN HIGH HOLDS OVER RGN TUES
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE. WAA BEGINS POURING OVER TOP OF 500HPA
RIDGE AS SFC WMFNT SURGES THROUGH FCA TUES NT AND WED WITH
-SHRA/TSTMS. THIS HAS ALL THE HALLMARKS OF MCS RIDGE ROLLERS.
BY WED EVENING FCA AND MUCH OF USA FROM ROCKIES TO THE SEABOARD IS
UNDER THE EASTERN RIDGE...AND BERMUDA HIGH. TEMPERATURES WHICH
STARTED THE WEEK WELL BLO NORMAL WILL SURGE TO 70S TUES...MID 70S
TO LOW 80S WED...THE 80S THURS AND TWRD 90 FRI.
WILL POPULATE WITH OVERNIGHT WPC GRIDS. ECMWF CLOSE ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO GFS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 06Z SATURDAY. WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY...IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE...WITH OCCASIONAL
FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AFTER 01Z-03Z...VCSH WITH
POTENTIAL SLOW IMPROVEMENTS TO CEILINGS INTO SOLID MVFR...BORDERING
ON LOW VFR. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO SHIFT A BIT EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY THE EVENING...VISIBILITIES COULD IMPROVE TO VFR.
LIGHT WEST OT NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME
NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AT AROUND 10 KT. THERE COULD BE
SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 15 KT AND 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT REMAINING STEADY AROUND 10 KT THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE AND LINGER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
INTO LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DRIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES. IT WILL
BRING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST...AND LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST.
THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PERIODS OF HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KBUF 240719
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
319 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND A DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
RULE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
MAINLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE STEADIEST RAIN IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHERE THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE AND ADDED LIFT IN THE
RRQ OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC.
WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AS THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE THAT IS
STILL IN PLACE.
AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER TODAY...THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF GRADUALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME
INCREASE IN SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK. IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL PUT EVEN MORE A CHILL INTO
THE AIR.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN...THEN CLOSE OFF
OVER SOUTHEAST NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. FARTHER TO THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE A
SHARP EAST TO WEST DECREASE IN CLOUDS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND
ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE MID
30S...THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST INCREASES. HOWEVER...FEEL THAT THE
NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET DURING THE PERIOD AS A
COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD AS THE CUT OFF LOW PROGRESSES INTO NEW ENGLAND. MAIN
CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION. THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW
AND APPROACHING SURFACE RIDGE TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD FROST.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY BE TOUGH TO GET WITH THE
TIGHTER GRADIENT IN PLACE...WOULD FEEL MORE CONFIDENT IN A FREEZE
IF WINDS COULD COMPLETELY DROP OFF. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE OUT OF FORECAST...BUT CONTINUE TO MENTION IN
HWO PRODUCT.
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION
MOVING UP INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THAT MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
THE WEST.
BOTH WEEKEND DAYS LOOK TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH SATURDAY THE
COOLEST OF THE TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN COOLER BOTH DAYS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OR AT LEAST THE BULK OF IT CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A HIGH AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER HOLDING THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY LIFTS AWAY FROM
THE AREA. MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDING EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT A WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING SOME MINIMAL RISK OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION LATER IN THE PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD
FRONT. THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. IFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE
TO MVFR AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF. LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR...THEN SCATTER OUT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT TONIGHT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS GENERAL
TREND WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW THAT WILL BE STATIONED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
THE MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE LIFTING UP THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WIND AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
LEVELS NEEDED FOR A SCA.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LOZ042-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...TJP
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...TJP
000
FXUS61 KBGM 240711
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
311 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXITING BEFORE MIDNIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL OVERTAKE REGION AS COLD CANADIAN AIR SETTLES
SOUTHWARD. EXPECT WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH POSSIBLE FROST DEVELOPMENT BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1030PM UPDATE...
PREFRONTAL TROUGH INITIATED NARROW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
SWEPT THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. IT HAS NOW REACHED
SULLIVAN/PIKE COUNTIES AND WILL LEAVE SHORTLY. HOWEVER...ACTUAL
SURFACE FRONT IS WELL BEHIND...ADVECTING IN OVER THE FINGER LAKES
REGION ON ITS WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BEND OF THE DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH ARE ALSO STILL PASSING THROUGH. THUS SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE...AND IN FACT WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER FROM THE WEST
TOWARDS MORNING AS NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THAT BEING
SAID...AMOUNTS ARE GOING TO BE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AS PRECIPITABLE WATER DIVES
BACK UNDER AN INCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1030PM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST MODELS...I SLOWED DOWN THE EXIT OF SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY. GOING TO BE A RAW DAY WITH A GUSTY NNW WIND...PLENTY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES STUCK IN ONLY THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING RAINS SHOULD SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY MORNING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES ADVECTING ACROSS
OUR REGION. EXPECT A FAIRLY BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. RAIN POSSIBILITIES TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER WAVE CONGEALS INTO A CLOSED UPPER
LOW WHICH WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND.
MAIN CONCERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIKELY FROST/FREEZE
CONCERNS AS MUCH COOLER AIR SETTLES IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEW GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING WELL INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BOTH SAT/SUN NIGHTS WITH LOW 30S NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION ACROSS THE TRADITIONALLY FAVORED COOLER LOCATIONS.
WE DEFINITELY EXPECT THE NEED FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT WILL
ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO HANDLE THIS AS A RESULT DISTANCE INTO THE
FCST PERIOD. IN GENERAL THOUGH...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL HOLIDAY
WEEKEND SHAPING UP FOR THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NWRD OUT OF NEW ENG WHILE A NLY FLOW OF COLD
AIR CONTS OVER THE FCST AREA. STRONG SUN ANGLE HELPS TOP MODIFY
THE AIR MASS BUT IT WILL STILL BE COOLER THAN NRML FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES LATE
TUE INTO WED AS THE HI RETREATES AND WRM FNT OVER THE MIDWEST
PUSHES NE. MUCH WRMR AIR RETURNS FOR WED AND WITH THE FNT STILL
OVER NRN NY AND WRN NEW ENG...PSBLTY OF SOME TRWS THRU THE END OF
THE PD.
MODEL GUID IN LINE WITH HPC GUID WHICH WAS FOLLOWED FOR THIS FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT...AND HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH IFR
AND BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUM CATEGORIES MOSTLY EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
AIRPORT MINIMUMS MAY BE EXCEEDED AT TIMES EARLY...ESPECIALLY AT
THE ELEVATED TERMINALS. AFTER 12Z...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY A
CATEGORY OR TWO MAY OCCUR...HOWEVER SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE BELOW
STRENGTHENING INVERSION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP
CLOUDS TRAPPED IN THE REGION LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST. FOR THAT
REASON...HAVE HELD ONTO AT LEAST MVFR CIGS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS
WELL INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES
WITH BEST CONCENTRATION AFTER ABOUT 16Z TODAY...HOWEVER THESE
SHOULD NOT ADD ANY DIFFERENCE TO THE ALREADY RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS.
WINDS BECOMING POST FRONTAL EARLY TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASINGLY GUSTY 15-25 KTS...SUBSIDING AFTER 00Z TO 5-10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR CIGS.
SUN-MON...VFR NO CIG.
TUE...VFR. HIGH LVL CIGS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...JAB
000
FXUS61 KALY 240706
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
306 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY. A STORM WILL
DEVELOP...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE STORM WILL DRAW MUCH COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AND BRING DAMP WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK...WITH FAIR
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LOW STILL IN PROGRESS OF CUTTING AND SHOWERY NATURE TO
PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE OF A STEADY RAIN...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST
AND ADJUSTING THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...WITH JUST MINOR CHANGES TO RAIN CHANCES
AND TEMPERATURES. WILL MAKE MORE CHANGES TO TODAY AND TONIGHT ONCE
ALL NEW GUIDANCE IS IN. STILL LOOKS LIKE A RAINY DAY AND NIGHT WITH
MUCH COOLER WEATHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE OOUTC GFS IS IN LINE WITH PAST FEW RUNS OF THE MODEL SUITE.
ONLY DIFFERENCE IN 00UTC RUNS IS NAM IS A BIT FASTER WITH PROGRESSION
OF WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT ITS BEEN THE FAST MODEL FOR SVRL
RUNS...AND AT THIS TIME ITS PROBABLY THE OUTLIER.
BY SAT MORNING THE 500HPA CUT OFF WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK...AND COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
BE CENTERED JUST OFF BOSTON. 500HPA CUT OFF WILL TAKE ON A NEG
TILT SAT...AND ENHANCE COOL CONVEYOR BELT PCPN FM COASTAL
LOW...BACK INTO MOST OF THE FCA. WITH COASTAL LOW ALMOST
VERTICAL...12MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NYS...IT SHOULD BE A RAW
NOVEMBER-ESQ DAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND A BRISK CHILLY
NORTH WIND. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -2 TO -4C OVER FCA...COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SNOW OVER HIGHEST TRRN. (YES ITS MAY 25TH IN NEW YORK WERE
TALKING ABOUT HERE). AT SFC HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE IN MID 40S TO
MID 50S...15-20 DEG BLO NRML. LOWS SAT NT WILL FALL TO MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ON EAST SIDE OF FCA AND
OVER HIR TRRN...DIMINISHING TWRD THE WEST. DURING SAT AND SAT NT
ANOTHER 0.30 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF IS FCST BY GFS...0.10 TO 0.5 BY
GEM...AND A TENTH TO AN INCH BY THE "FAST" NAM WHICH IS ALL EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER
BOTH THE GEM AND GFS TAKE THE VERTICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO
THE GULF OF MAIN SUNDAY AND ONWARD INTO THE MARITIMES...IN LINE
WITH CURRENT FCST. PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCT -SHRA EAST...ISOLD
-SHRA WEST...TIED MAINLY TO LAST OF SHORT WVS SPIRALING AROUND
500HPA CUT OFF...DIURNAL HEATING AND TRRN. CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH
OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH BREAKS OF SUN WILL INCR ALONG W PERIPHERY OF
FCA...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF AREA HAS A CHANCE TO SEE
SUNSET SAT EVENING. WITH LESS PCPN...SOME SUN MAX TEMPS WILL
RECOVER TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH SOME MID 60S SE ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE CUT OFF EXITS INTO LABRADOR...AND THE BEGINNINGS
OF THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TAKE SHAPE AS A 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM MISS VLY TO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND THEN STARTS BUILDING
EAST.
AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GRTLKS MONDAY...AND
ACROSS FCA MON NT. UNDER STRONG SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S IN VLYS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALB.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS UNDER
THE SFC HIGH...AND LOWS IN 30S AND LOW 40S. THERE MAY BE FROST AND
FREEZE ISSUES PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIR TRRN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN CHANGE THAT SET UP MONDAY...BECOMES THE DOMINATE
REGIME DURING THE EFP. 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS FM GULF COAST TO JAMES
BAY...THEN SHIFTS TO EASTERN SEABOARD. 590DM CLOSED HIGH OVER MUCH
OF EAST FROM LATE WED INTO WEEKEND. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN THERE FOR
DAYS IN GFS...AND THERE`S MORE AGREEMENT BWTN GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES IN DAYS 5-7 THAN IN THE SHORT TERM.
AT SFC COOLER BUT MODERATED CANADIAN HIGH HOLDS OVER RGN TUES
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE. WAA BEGINS POURING OVER TOP OF 500HPA
RIDGE AS SFC WMFNT SURGES THROUGH FCA TUES NT AND WED WITH
-SHRA/TSTMS. THIS HAS ALL THE HALLMARKS OF MCS RIDGE ROLLERS.
BY WED EVENING FCA AND MUCH OF USA FROM ROCKIES TO THE SEABOARD IS
UNDER THE EASTERN RIDGE...AND BERMUDA HIGH. TEMPERATURES WHICH
STARTED THE WEEK WELL BLO NORMAL WILL SURGE TO 70S TUES...MID 70S
TO LOW 80S WED...THE 80S THURS AND TWRD 90 FRI.
WILL POPULATE WITH OVERNIGHT WPC GRIDS. MAY ADJUST IF NEEDED WHEN
ECMWF BCMS AVBL.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 06Z SATURDAY. WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY...IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE...WITH OCCASIONAL
FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AFTER 01Z-03Z...VCSH WITH
POTENTIAL SLOW IMPROVEMENTS TO CEILINGS INTO SOLID MVFR...BORDERING
ON LOW VFR. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO SHIFT A BIT EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY THE EVENING...VISIBILITIES COULD IMPROVE TO VFR.
LIGHT WEST OT NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME
NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AT AROUND 10 KT. THERE COULD BE
SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 15 KT AND 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT REMAINING STEADY AROUND 10 KT THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE AND LINGER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
INTO LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DRIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES. IT WILL
BRING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST...AND LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST.
THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PERIODS OF HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KOKX 240623
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
223 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE THEN FORMS ALONG IT NEAR THE AREA FRIDAY...AND SLOWLY
TRACKS TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIS LOW SLOWLY THEN
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAIN AREA OF FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS NE NJ AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS LESS ORGANIZATION
THAN THERE WAS EARLIER IN THE DAY...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUES TO EXACERBATE THE ONGOING FLOODING. NUMEROUS STREAMS
AND RIVERS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS...IN PARTICULAR...ACROSS BERGEN
COUNTY NJ. MOST OF THE RIVER GAUGES ACROSS THIS AREA SHOW MAINLY
MINOR FLOODING...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF SOME PROPERTIES
TAKING ON WATER WITH ABOUT A FOOT OF RUNNING WATER.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ACROSS EASTERN PA...THEIR ARE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THIS AREA...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT FROM NOW UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
THE FRONT THEN ARRIVES AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.
BASED ON THE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...LONGER TERM FLOODING MAY BECOME
AN ISSUE AND AREAL FLOOD WARNING MAY NEED TO REPLACE THE ONGOING
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. THIS WILL DEPEND IN HOW WELL THE CONVECTION
UPSTREAM REMAINS IN TACT.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHING WITH A WEAKENING WIND
SHEAR PROFILE AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL STABILITY.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT COMES TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING WITH
AFOREMENTIONED 250 HPA JET AXIS SLIDING TO OUR EAST ALONG WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TRI-STATE AND
TRACKING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED MOIST S FLOW INT HE MID LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS FROM 700
HPA DOWN TO THE SURFACE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...QUITE LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING TO THE
EAST...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT - ALTHOUGH WEAK - TAKING OVER.
FOR HIGHS FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH A
MIX DOWN FROM 925 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT
OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS
WEEKEND. HAVE SHIFTED FOCUS OF CATEGORICAL POP INITIALLY ON SAT TO
AREAS FROM NYC WEST WHERE HEAVIER COMMA HEAD PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING...THEN E-WARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME
RATHER BRISK BY SAT AFTERNOON...FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH INTO EARLY SAT
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OVER ERN CT/LONG ISLAND VIA SOME
ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. TEMPS
WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY 55-60 AND
DROPPING INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT.
STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY SAT NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS E OF NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY/ISOLD IN
NATURE ON SUNDAY VIA CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL COOL AND BREEZY ON SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S...AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
DRY WX AND A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF NYC.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE CITY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT THEN PASSES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS VARYING IN DIRECTION BEFORE SUNRISE DUE TO TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH...BUT MOSTLY S-SW. WINDS THEN VEER TO THE NW TOWARDS THE END
OF THE MORNING PUSH AND INCREASE. FOR THE AFTERNOON...NW WINDS
15-20KT WITH GUSTS 25-29KT.
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH FLIGHT CATEGORIES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
MORNING PUSH. TEMPO OR EXTENDED PERIODS OF VFR ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS WEST AS A NARROW WEDGE OF VFR CONDITIONS
TRIES TO SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS. MVFR TO IFR IN SHOWERS...FOG AND
STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO IFR. N WIND 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. NW WIND
20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NON-OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GUSTS IN STRENGTHENING N-NW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES E OF NEW ENGLAND COULD REACH GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ON THE OCEAN AND THEN ERN
SOUND/BAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE VIA
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS MAY REPLACE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ACROSS NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
DEPENDING ON HOW WELL THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM REMAIN IN TACT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF AROUND 1.75 INCHES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR RAINFALL RATES
TO APPROACH 2 INCHES AN HOUR IN ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. AS A
RESULT EXPECT ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2-3/4 OF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT - WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO DECREASE TO UNDER 1 INCH BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF MINOR URBAN FLOODING IN
THIS TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY BE RESTRICTED TO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...IF ANY OCCURS.
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...THEN
ONLY MINIMAL QPF IN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT/NV
000
FXUS61 KBTV 240541
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN AS SOME STORMS
WILL MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT MORE
RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A NOREASTER FORMS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 103 AM EDT FRIDAY...HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH CAUSED FLASH
FLOODING IS NOW DISSIPATING ACRS CENTRAL VT. DUAL POL RAINFALL
ESTIMATES HAVE DONE VERY WELL...WHEN COMPARING TO OBS...SHOWING A
3 TO 5 INCH PRINT FROM ESSEX CENTER/JERICHO TO UNDERHILL TO
CAMBRIDGE AREA. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL IN 1 TO 3 HOURS CAUSED
NUMEROUS ROAD WASHOUTS AND MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE. CHECK LATEST
BTVLSR FOR FURTHER INFO.
MINOR UPDATE TO FCST TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
CAPTURE CRNT TEMP/PRECIP TRENDS. SFC COLD FRNT IS ACRS THE CPV
ATTM...WITH A TRANSITION FROM A MOIST/UNSTABLE TO MUCH
COOLER/MOIST AIR MASS TAKING PLACE FROM NW TO SE. IN ADDITION...A
TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPMENT FROM M40S SLV TO M60S NEAR
VSF. THIS CRNT AND LLVL CAA WL HELP TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...WITH GREATEST ADDITIONAL QPF ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AND 0.50 ACRS
SOUTHERN VT...WITH 0.10 TO 0.20 ACRS THE DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
AREAS. GIVEN SEVERAL HYDRO WARNINGS IN EFFECT WL CONT FLASH FLOOD
WATCH ATTM...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FURTHER FLASH FLOODING AS
THUNDERSTORMS WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES HAVE
DISSIPATED.
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME...AND WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS. FLOODING ISSUES STILL
EXIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT
WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS OCCURRED THIS EVENING. UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES
REPORTED IN SOME AREAS RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
ALSO...RAINS THIS EVENING COUPLED WITH COPIOUS RAINFALL OVER PAST
FEW DAYS HAS PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF FLOOD WARNING FOR BARTON RIVER
AT COVENTRY. WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED OVER NEXT FEW DAYS...
POTENTIAL FOR MORE RIVER FLOODING WILL LIKELY INCREASE RIGHT INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION...
LAPS SOUNDING SHOW SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMNS...TALL SKINNY
CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1300 J/KG. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS RUNNING NEAR 4KM
AND PW VALUES NEAR 1.70". BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET ALL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF VERY
EFFICIENT WARM PROCESSES...1 TO 3" HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR TWO
SW-NE ORIENTATED AREAS, ONE IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ANOTHER
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND NE VT. THIS SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING ON
RADAR. SOME AREAS HAVE HAD 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY THIS WEEK SO
CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR MOST
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
FALLING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT WITH THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
SLOWLY SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 454 PM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT
BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AS
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH OVER 100M 12H HGT FALLS REACHING THE
DELMARVA AREA BY 00Z SAT THEN ROTATE NORTH TO CAPE COD BY 00Z SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THEN WAITS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED.
STRONG QG FORCING, WARM MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND STRONG LOW-MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO COMBINE TO BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURE MOSTLY IN THE 40S BUT SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE ALSO PUT A BIT OF WET SNOW AT THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS (ABOVE 2500 FT) ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT ANOTHER 0.75-1.50" OF STEADIER LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 454 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY ON SUNDAY...HOW FAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A
QUESTION. LEANED TOWARD THE EMCWF WHICH IS NOT GREAT NEWS FOR THE
THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE AROUND SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE MARATHON IN BURLINGTON.
KEPT A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING ON SUNDAY, HIGHEST IN THE
MORNING, BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS WITHOUT SHOWERS AS WELL.
RIGHT NOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S SUNDAY MORNING AND AND LOW
TO MID 50S IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE QUITE COLD FOR MAY WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
ON MONDAY THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE MOVING FAR ENOUGH AWAY
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES MOVING BACK INTO
THE 60S.
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE TUE-THU WITH
SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING THE FORECAST BY
WED AND THU AS TEMPERATURE BECOME MORE SUMMER-LIKE WITH RETURNING
HUMIDITY AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH FORMING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS LIGHT RAIN. THERE WILL ALSO
BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA. THE WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST ALL AREAS
AT SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SFC
LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLEARING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 754 AM THURSDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM
FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY. WATCH FOR MULTIPLE STORMS TO TRACK OVER THE SAME
AREA AND COMBINED WITH RAINFALL RATES AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR...FLASH FLOODING MAY RESULT. THE THREAT WILL TRANSITION ON
FRIDAY FROM FLASH FLOODING TO POTENTIAL RIVER FLOODING AS MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VERMONT. THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001>012-
016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028>031-
034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV
000
FXUS61 KALY 240527
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY. A STORM WILL
DEVELOP...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE STORM WILL DRAW MUCH COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AND BRING DAMP WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK...WITH FAIR
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LOW STILL IN PROGRESS OF CUTTING AND SHOWERY NATURE TO
PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE OF A STEADY RAIN...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST
AND ADJUSTING THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...WITH JUST MINOR CHANGES TO RAIN CHANCES
AND TEMPERATURES. WILL MAKE MORE CHANGES TO TODAY AND TONIGHT ONCE
ALL NEW GUIDANCE IS IN. STILL LOOKS LIKE A RAINY DAY AND NIGHT WITH
MUCH COOLER WEATHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE OOUTC GFS IS IN LINE WITH PAST FEW RUNS OF THE MODEL SUITE.
ONLY DIFFERENCE IN 00UTC RUNS IS NAM IS A BIT FASTER WITH PROGRESSION
OF WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT ITS BEEN THE FAST MODEL FOR SVRL
RUNS...AND AT THIS TIME ITS PROBABLY THE OUTLIER.
BY SAT MORNING THE 500HPA CUT OFF WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK...AND COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
BE CENTERED JUST OFF BOSTON. 500HPA CUT OFF WILL TAKE ON A NEG
TILT SAT...AND ENHANCE COOL CONVEYOR BELT PCPN FM COASTAL
LOW...BACK INTO MOST OF THE FCA. WITH COASTAL LOW ALMOST
VERTICAL...12MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NYS...IT SHOULD BE A RAW
NOVEMBER-ESQ DAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND A BRISK CHILLY
NORTH WIND. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -2 TO -4C OVER FCA...COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SNOW OVER HIGHEST TRRN. (YES ITS MAY 25TH IN NEW YORK WERE
TALKING ABOUT HERE). AT SFC HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE IN MID 40S TO
MID 50S...15-20 DEG BLO NRML. LOWS SAT NT WILL FALL TO MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ON EAST SIDE OF FCA AND
OVER HIR TRRN...DIMISHING TWRD THE WEST. DURING SAT AND SAT NT
ANOTHER 0.30 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF IS FCST BY GFS...0.10 TO 0.5 BY
GEM...AND A TENTH TO AN INCH BY THE "FAST" NAM WHICH IS ALL EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER
BOTH THE GEM AND GFS TAKE THE VERTICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO
THE GULF OF MAIN SUNDAY AND ONWARD INTO THE MARITIMES...IN LINE
WITH CURRENT FCST. PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCT -SHRA EAST...ISOLD
-SHRA WEST...TIED MAINLY TO LAST OF SHORT WVS SPIRALING AROUND
500HPA CUT OFF...DIURNAL HEATING AND TRRN. CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH
OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH BREAKS OF SUN WILL INCR ALONG W PERIPHERY OF
FCA...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF AREA HAS A CHANCE TO SEE
SUNSET SAT EVENING. WITH LESS PCPN...SOME SUN MAX TEMPS WILL
RECOVER TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH SOME MID 60S SE ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE CUT OFF EXITS INTO LABRADOR...AND THE BEGINNINGS
OF THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TAKE SHAPE AS A 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM MISS VLY TO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND THEN STARTS BUILDING
EAST.
AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GRTLKS MONDAY...AND
ACROSS FCA MON NT. UNDER STRONG SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S IN VLYS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALB.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS UNDER
THE SFC HIGH...AND LOWS IN 30S AND LOW 40S. THERE MAY BE FROST AND
FREEZE ISSUES PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIR TRRN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT STARTING TO BUILD IN FAIR
AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 40 TO 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT WILL GET EVEN WARMER WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOW OR MID 50S...AND THE HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 06Z SATURDAY. WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY...IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE...WITH OCCASIONAL
FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AFTER 01Z-03Z...VCSH WITH
POTENTIAL SLOW IMPROVEMENTS TO CEILINGS INTO SOLID MVFR...BORDERING
ON LOW VFR. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO SHIFT A BIT EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY THE EVENING...VISIBILITIES COULD IMPROVE TO VFR.
LIGHT WEST OT NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME
NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AT AROUND 10 KT. THERE COULD BE
SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 15 KT AND 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT REMAINING STEADY AROUND 10 KT THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS ON FRIDAY. AFTER THAT THE
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF TO OUR WEST IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALSO
OCCURRING ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS
WILL THEN SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS AND TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE
CELLS. AFTER THAT EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF POSSIBLE HEAVY SYNOPTIC
RAINFALL FROM THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS.
ALL OF THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PERIODS OF HEAVY/TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...AND
ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
000
FXUS61 KBTV 240518
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
118 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN AS SOME STORMS
WILL MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT MORE
RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A NOREASTER FORMS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 103 AM EDT FRIDAY...HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH CAUSED FLASH
FLOODING IS NOW DISSIPATING ACRS CENTRAL VT. DUAL POL RAINFALL
ESTIMATES HAVE DONE VERY WELL...WHEN COMPARING TO OBS...SHOWING A
3 TO 5 INCH PRINT FROM ESSEX CENTER/JERICHO TO UNDERHILL TO
CAMBRIDGE AREA. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL IN 1 TO 3 HOURS CAUSED
NUMEROUS ROAD WASHOUTS AND MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE. CHECK LATEST
BTVLSR FOR FURTHER INFO.
MINOR UPDATE TO FCST TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
CAPTURE CRNT TEMP/PRECIP TRENDS. SFC COLD FRNT IS ACRS THE CPV
ATTM...WITH A TRANSITION FROM A MOIST/UNSTABLE TO MUCH
COOLER/MOIST AIRMASS TAKING PLACE FROM NW TO SE. IN ADDITION...A
TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPMENT FROM M40S SLV TO M60S NEAR
VSF. THIS CRNT AND LLVL CAA WL HELP TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...WITH GREATEST ADDITIONAL QPF ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AND 0.50 ACRS
SOUTHERN VT...WITH 0.10 TO 0.20 ACRS THE DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
AREAS. GIVEN SEVERAL HYDRO WARNINGS IN EFFECT WL CONT FLASH FLOOD
WATCH ATTM...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FURTHER FLASH FLODDING AS
THUNDERSTORMS WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES HAVE
DISSIPATED.
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME...AND WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS. FLOODING ISSUES STILL
EXIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT
WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS OCCURRED THIS EVENING. UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES
REPORTED IN SOME AREAS RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
ALSO...RAINS THIS EVENING COUPLED WITH COPIOUS RAINFALL OVER PAST
FEW DAYS HAS PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF FLOOD WARNING FOR BARTON RIVER
AT COVENTRY. WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED OVER NEXT FEW DAYS...
POTENTIAL FOR MORE RIVER FLOODING WILL LIKELY INCREASE RIGHT INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION...
LAPS SOUNDING SHOW SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMNS...TALL SKINNY
CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1300 J/KG. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS RUNNING NEAR 4KM
AND PW VALUES NEAR 1.70". BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET ALL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF VERY
EFFICIENT WARM PROCESSES...1 TO 3" HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR TWO
SW-NE ORIENTATED AREAS, ONE IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ANOTHER
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND NE VT. THIS SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING ON
RADAR. SOME AREAS HAVE HAD 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY THIS WEEK SO
CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR MOST
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
FALLING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT WITH THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
SLOWLY SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 454 PM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT
BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AS
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH OVER 100M 12H HGT FALLS REACHING THE
DELMARVA AREA BY 00Z SAT THEN ROTATE NORTH TO CAPE COD BY 00Z SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THEN WAITS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED.
STRONG QG FORCING, WARM MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND STRONG LOW-MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO COMBINE TO BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURE MOSTLY IN THE 40S BUT SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE ALSO PUT A BIT OF WET SNOW AT THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS (ABOVE 2500 FT) ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT ANOTHER 0.75-1.50" OF STEADIER LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 454 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY ON SUNDAY...HOW FAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A
QUESTION. LEANED TOWARD THE EMCWF WHICH IS NOT GREAT NEWS FOR THE
THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE AROUND SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE MARATHON IN BURLINGTON.
KEPT A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING ON SUNDAY, HIGHEST IN THE
MORNING, BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS WITHOUT SHOWERS AS WELL.
RIGHT NOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S SUNDAY MORNING AND AND LOW
TO MID 50S IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE QUITE COLD FOR MAY WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
ON MONDAY THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE MOVING FAR ENOUGH AWAY
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES MOVING BACK INTO
THE 60S.
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE TUE-THU WITH
SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING THE FORECAST BY
WED AND THU AS TEMPERATURE BECOME MORE SUMMER-LIKE WITH RETURNING
HUMIDITY AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH FORMING.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
WHILE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT OF STORMS
WILL DECREASE AS COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO PREVAILING
M,VFR WITH AREAS OF IFR OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHIFTING WINDS THIS
EVENING DUE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SFC
LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLRING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 754 AM THURSDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM
FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY. WATCH FOR MULTIPLE STORMS TO TRACK OVER THE SAME
AREA AND COMBINED WITH RAINFALL RATES AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR...FLASH FLOODING MAY RESULT. THE THREAT WILL TRANSITION ON
FRIDAY FROM FLASH FLOODING TO POTENTIAL RIVER FLOODING AS MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VERMONT. THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.MARINE...
A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR WITH ANY POTENTIAL STORMS...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND/WAVE OCCURRENCE IN VICINITY OF ANY THUNDER.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001>012-
016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028>031-
034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...RJS
HYDROLOGY...
MARINE...
000
FXUS61 KALY 240502
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
102 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY. A STORM WILL
DEVELOP...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE STORM WILL DRAW MUCH COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AND BRING DAMP WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK...WITH FAIR
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LOW STILL IN PROGRESS OF CUTTING AND SHOWERY NATURE TO
PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE OF A STEADY RAIN...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST
AND ADJUSTING THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...WITH JUST MINOR CHANGES TO RAIN CHANCES
AND TEMPERATURES. WILL MAKE MORE CHANGES TO TODAY AND TONIGHT ONCE
ALL NEW GUIDANCE IS IN. STILL LOOKS LIKE A RAINY DAY AND NIGHT WITH
MUCH COOLER WEATHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE OOUTC GFS IS IN LINE WITH PAST FEW RUNS OF THE MODEL SUITE.
ONLY DIFFERENCE IN 00UTC RUNS IS NAM IS A BIT FASTER WITH PROGRESSION
OF WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT ITS BEEN THE FAST MODEL FOR SVRL
RUNS...AND AT THIS TIME ITS PROBABLY THE OUTLIER.
BY SAT MORNING THE 500HPA CUT OFF WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK...AND COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
BE CENTERED JUST OFF BOSTON. 500HPA CUT OFF WILL TAKE ON A NEG
TILT SAT...AND ENHANCE COOL CONVEYOR BELT PCPN FM COASTAL
LOW...BACK INTO MOST OF THE FCA. WITH COASTAL LOW ALMOST
VERTICAL...12MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NYS...IT SHOULD BE A RAW
NOVEMBER-ESQ DAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND A BRISK CHILLY
NORTH WIND. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -2 TO -4C OVER FCA...COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SNOW OVER HIGHEST TRRN. (YES ITS MAY 25TH IN NEW YORK WERE
TALKING ABOUT HERE). AT SFC HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE IN MID 40S TO
MID 50S...15-20 DEG BLO NRML. LOWS SAT NT WILL FALL TO MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ON EAST SIDE OF FCA AND
OVER HIR TRRN...DIMISHING TWRD THE WEST. DURING SAT AND SAT NT
ANOTHER 0.30 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF IS FCST BY GFS...0.10 TO 0.5 BY
GEM...AND A TENTH TO AN INCH BY THE "FAST" NAM WHICH IS ALL EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER
BOTH THE GEM AND GFS TAKE THE VERTICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO
THE GULF OF MAIN SUNDAY AND ONWARD INTO THE MARITIMES...IN LINE
WITH CURRENT FCST. PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCT -SHRA EAST...ISOLD
-SHRA WEST...TIED MAINLY TO LAST OF SHORT WVS SPIRALING AROUND
500HPA CUT OFF...DIURNAL HEATING AND TRRN. CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH
OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH BREAKS OF SUN WILL INCR ALONG W PERIPHERY OF
FCA...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF AREA HAS A CHANCE TO SEE
SUNSET SAT EVENING. WITH LESS PCPN...SOME SUN MAX TEMPS WILL
RECOVER TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH SOME MID 60S SE ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE CUT OFF EXITS INTO LABRADOR...AND THE BEGINNINGS
OF THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TAKE SHAPE AS A 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM MISS VLY TO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND THEN STARTS BUILDING
EAST.
AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GRTLKS MONDAY...AND
ACROSS FCA MON NT. UNDER STRONG SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S IN VLYS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALB.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS UNDER
THE SFC HIGH...AND LOWS IN 30S AND LOW 40S. THERE MAY BE FROST AND
FREEZE ISSUES PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIR TRRN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT STARTING TO BUILD IN FAIR
AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 40 TO 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT WILL GET EVEN WARMER WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOW OR MID 50S...AND THE HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 00Z SATURDAY. KPOU/KPSF
TERMINALS REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ONE BATCH OF
SHOWERS TO THE EAST...WHILE KALB/KGFL WILL SEE SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED DOWNPOURS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...WITH MAINLY
MVFR/IFR EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUING.
THEREAFTER A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM
SOUTHERLY TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION. FIRST AT KGFL LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN KALB TO KPSF OVERNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY KPOU
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EVEN MUCH OF THE MORNING DUE TO MAINLY
LOW CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH OVC SKIES AND SHOWERS
CONTINUING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS ON FRIDAY. AFTER THAT THE
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF TO OUR WEST IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALSO
OCCURRING ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS
WILL THEN SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS AND TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE
CELLS. AFTER THAT EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF POSSIBLE HEAVY SYNOPTIC
RAINFALL FROM THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS.
ALL OF THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PERIODS OF HEAVY/TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...AND
ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
000
FXUS61 KBTV 240252
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1052 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN AS SOME STORMS
WILL MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT MORE
RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A NOREASTER FORMS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1034 PM EDT THURSDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST WITH
LATEST UPDATE...MAINLY TO KEEP FORECAST CURRENT WITH SOME
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY WEATHER PARAMETERS FOR THIS EVENING.
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME...AND WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS. FLOODING ISSUES STILL
EXIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT
WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS OCCURRED THIS EVENING. UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES
REPORTED IN SOME AREAS RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
ALSO...RAINS THIS EVENING COUPLED WITH COPIOUS RAINFALL OVER PAST
FEW DAYS HAS PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF FLOOD WARNING FOR BARTON RIVER
AT COVENTRY. WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED OVER NEXT FEW DAYS...
POTENTIAL FOR MORE RIVER FLOODING WILL LIKELY INCREASE RIGHT INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION...
LAPS SOUNDING SHOW SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMNS...TALL SKINNY
CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1300 J/KG. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS RUNNING NEAR 4KM
AND PW VALUES NEAR 1.70". BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET ALL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF VERY
EFFICIENT WARM PROCESSES...1 TO 3" HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR TWO
SW-NE ORIENTATED AREAS, ONE IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ANOTHER
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND NE VT. THIS SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING ON
RADAR. SOME AREAS HAVE HAD 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY THIS WEEK SO
CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR MOST
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
FALLING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT WITH THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
SLOWLY SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 454 PM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT
BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AS
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH OVER 100M 12H HGT FALLS REACHING THE
DELMARVA AREA BY 00Z SAT THEN ROTATE NORTH TO CAPE COD BY 00Z SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THEN WAITS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED.
STRONG QG FORCING, WARM MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND STRONG LOW-MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO COMBINE TO BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURE MOSTLY IN THE 40S BUT SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE ALSO PUT A BIT OF WET SNOW AT THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS (ABOVE 2500 FT) ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT ANOTHER 0.75-1.50" OF STEADIER LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 454 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY ON SUNDAY...HOW FAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A
QUESTION. LEANED TOWARD THE EMCWF WHICH IS NOT GREAT NEWS FOR THE
THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE AROUND SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE MARATHON IN BURLINGTON.
KEPT A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING ON SUNDAY, HIGHEST IN THE
MORNING, BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS WITHOUT SHOWERS AS WELL.
RIGHT NOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S SUNDAY MORNING AND AND LOW
TO MID 50S IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE QUITE COLD FOR MAY WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
ON MONDAY THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE MOVING FAR ENOUGH AWAY
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES MOVING BACK INTO
THE 60S.
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE TUE-THU WITH
SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING THE FORECAST BY
WED AND THU AS TEMPERATURE BECOME MORE SUMMER-LIKE WITH RETURNING
HUMIDITY AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH FORMING.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
WHILE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT OF STORMS
WILL DECREASE AS COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO PREVAILING
M,VFR WITH AREAS OF IFR OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHIFTING WINDS THIS
EVENING DUE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SFC
LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLRING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 754 AM THURSDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM
FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY. WATCH FOR MULTIPLE STORMS TO TRACK OVER THE SAME
AREA AND COMBINED WITH RAINFALL RATES AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR...FLASH FLOODING MAY RESULT. THE THREAT WILL TRANSITION ON
FRIDAY FROM FLASH FLOODING TO POTENTIAL RIVER FLOODING AS MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VERMONT. THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.MARINE...
A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR WITH ANY POTENTIAL STORMS...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND/WAVE OCCURRENCE IN VICINITY OF ANY THUNDER.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028>031-034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...RJS
HYDROLOGY...
MARINE...
000
FXUS61 KALY 240252
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1052 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...THEN STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT
OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EVENTUALLY RETURNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1052 PM EDT...BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH DOWNPOURS CONTINUE LATE
THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING HAS DECREASED UPSTREAM...BUT STILL
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS EMBEDDED WITH A FEW STRIKES ACROSS NORTHEAST
PA. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. RAINFALL RATES WILL STILL BE QUITE HIGH WITHIN THE MORE
INTENSE CONVECTIVE CELLS...WITH PWATS STILL RUNNING HIGH AROUND
1.4 INCHES FROM THE 00Z KALB SOUNDING. ONE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
WAS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING INTO CENTRAL PA/NY...WHILE
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS MEANS SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH THE GREATER THREAT FOR AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A
SYNOPTIC WIDESPREAD SHOWER EVENT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTOFFS OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST. AS THESE LOWS DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST...THEY WILL KEEP ON AND OFF RAIN/SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD HAVE FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE WEST.
THE COMBINATION OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS/RAIN AND THE COLD POOL
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL PERIOD OF WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THEIR STARTING POINT IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. HIGHS
SATURDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
ON SUNDAY THE UPPER/SFC LOWS SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE
REGION TO PRODUCE ONLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY BE DRY OR ONLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE ECMWF IS
THE MOST PESSIMISTIC WITH PCPN LINGERING INTO MONDAY...BUT HAVE
FORECAST CLOSER TO THE OTHER MODELS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 50 AND 60...WHICH IS STILL 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT STARTING TO BUILD IN. HAVE
FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45.
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
40 TO 50. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT WILL GET EVEN WARMER WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOW OR MID 50S...AND THE HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 00Z SATURDAY. KPOU/KPSF
TERMINALS REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ONE BATCH OF
SHOWERS TO THE EAST...WHILE KALB/KGFL WILL SEE SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED DOWNPOURS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...WITH MAINLY
MVFR/IFR EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUING.
THEREAFTER A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM
SOUTHERLY TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION. FIRST AT KGFL LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN KALB TO KPSF OVERNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY KPOU
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EVEN MUCH OF THE MORNING DUE TO MAINLY
LOW CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH OVC SKIES AND SHOWERS
CONTINUING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS ON FRIDAY. AFTER THAT THE
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF TO OUR WEST IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALSO
OCCURRING ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS
WILL THEN SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS AND TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE
CELLS. AFTER THAT EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF POSSIBLE HEAVY SYNOPTIC
RAINFALL FROM THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS.
ALL OF THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PERIODS OF HEAVY/TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...AND
ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
000
FXUS61 KBGM 240251
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1051 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXITING BEFORE MIDNIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL OVERTAKE REGION AS COLD CANADIAN AIR SETTLES
SOUTHWARD. EXPECT WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH POSSIBLE FROST DEVELOPMENT BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1030PM UPDATE...
PREFRONTAL TROUGH INITIATED NARROW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
SWEPT THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. IT HAS NOW REACHED
SULLIVAN/PIKE COUNTIES AND WILL LEAVE SHORTLY. HOWEVER...ACTUAL
SURFACE FRONT IS WELL BEHIND...ADVECTING IN OVER THE FINGER LAKES
REGION ON ITS WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BEND OF THE DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH ARE ALSO STILL PASSING THROUGH. THUS SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE...AND IN FACT WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER FROM THE WEST
TOWARDS MORNING AS NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THAT BEING
SAID...AMOUNTS ARE GOING TO BE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AS PRECIPITABLE WATER DIVES
BACK UNDER AN INCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1030PM UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST MODELS...I SLOWED DOWN THE EXIT OF SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY. GOING TO BE A RAW DAY WITH A GUSTY NNW WIND...PLENTY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES STUCK IN ONLY THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING RAINS SHOULD SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY MORNING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES ADVECTING ACROSS
OUR REGION. EXPECT A FAIRLY BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. RAIN POSSIBILITIES TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER WAVE CONGEALS INTO A CLOSED UPPER
LOW WHICH WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND.
MAIN CONCERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIKELY FROST/FREEZE
CONCERNS AS MUCH COOLER AIR SETTLES IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEW GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING WELL INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BOTH SAT/SUN NIGHTS WITH LOW 30S NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION ACROSS THE TRADITIONALLY FAVORED COOLER LOCATIONS.
WE DEFINITELY EXPECT THE NEED FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT WILL
ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO HANDLE THIS AS A RESULT DISTANCE INTO THE
FCST PERIOD. IN GENERAL THOUGH...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL HOLIDAY
WEEKEND SHAPING UP FOR THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NWRD OUT OF NEW ENG WHILE A NLY FLOW OF COLD
AIR CONTS OVER THE FCST AREA. STRONG SUN ANGLE HELPS TOP MODIFY
THE AIR MASS BUT IT WILL STILL BE COOLER THAN NRML FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES LATE
TUE INTO WED AS THE HI RETREATES AND WRM FNT OVER THE MIDWEST
PUSHES NE. MUCH WRMR AIR RETURNS FOR WED AND WITH THE FNT STILL
OVER NRN NY AND WRN NEW ENG...PSBLTY OF SOME TRWS THRU THE END OF
THE PD.
MODEL GUID IN LINE WITH HPC GUID WHICH WAS FOLLOWED FOR THIS FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
03Z UPDATE...
BEHIND THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS WILL STILL OCCUR TAKING MOST
TERMINALS MVFR TO IFR ALONG WITH FLUCTUATING WIND...SOME PLACES
EVEN LIFR CIGS. ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT...WHICH WAS WELL BEHIND THE
MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT 03Z HAS REACHED ABOUT
SYR-ITH-ELM AND WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OVER REMAINDER OF TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL THUS MORE SOLIDLY LOCK IN TO LOW END MVFR OR
IFR THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. A RAW DAY FRIDAY WITH COLD UPPER
LEVEL LOW SLOGGING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS WILL INCLUDE MVFR
CIGS...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS /THOUGH DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY/...AND NW TO NNW WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT/EARLY SAT...PSBL LINGERING MVFR CIGS AND SCT SHRA FOR
KBGM...KAVP...AND KRME.
SAT MID MORNING THROUGH TUE...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MDP
000
FXUS61 KOKX 240244
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1044 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE THEN FORMS ALONG IT NEAR THE AREA FRIDAY...AND SLOWLY
TRACKS TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIS LOW SLOWLY THEN
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MAIN AREA OF FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS NE NJ AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS LESS ORGANIZATION
THAN THERE WAS EARLIER IN THE DAY...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUES TO EXACERBATE THE ONGOING FLOODING. NUMEROUS STREAMS
AND RIVERS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS...IN PARTICULAR...ACROSS BERGEN
COUNTY NJ. MOST OF THE RIVER GAUGES ACROSS THIS AREA SHOW MAINLY
MINOR FLOODING...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF SOME PROPERTIES
TAKING ON WATER WITH ABOUT A FOOT OF RUNNING WATER.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ACROSS EASTERN PA...THEIR ARE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THIS AREA...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT FROM NOW UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
THE FRONT THEN ARRIVES AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.
BASED ON THE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...LONGER TERM FLOODING MAY BECOME
AN ISSUE AND AREAL FLOOD WARNING MAY NEED TO REPLACE THE ONGOING
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. THIS WILL DEPEND IN HOW WELL THE CONVECTION
UPSTREAM REMAINS IN TACT.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHING WITH A WEAKENING WIND
SHEAR PROFILE AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL STABILITY.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT COMES TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING WITH
AFOREMENTIONED 250 HPA JET AXIS SLIDING TO OUR EAST ALONG WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TRI-STATE AND
TRACKING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED MOIST S FLOW INT HE MID LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS FROM 700
HPA DOWN TO THE SURFACE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...QUITE LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING TO THE
EAST...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT - ALTHOUGH WEAK - TAKING OVER.
FOR HIGHS FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH A
MIX DOWN FROM 925 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT
OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS
WEEKEND. HAVE SHIFTED FOCUS OF CATEGORICAL POP INITIALLY ON SAT TO
AREAS FROM NYC WEST WHERE HEAVIER COMMA HEAD PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING...THEN E-WARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME
RATHER BRISK BY SAT AFTERNOON...FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH INTO EARLY SAT
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OVER ERN CT/LONG ISLAND VIA SOME
ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. TEMPS
WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY 55-60 AND
DROPPING INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT.
STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY SAT NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS E OF NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY/ISOLD IN
NATURE ON SUNDAY VIA CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL COOL AND BREEZY ON SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S...AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
DRY WX AND A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF NYC.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND
05Z...MAINLY WEST OF NEW YORK CITY.
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH AFTER 10Z...AND THEN BECOME NORTHERLY AS THE LOW
MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST DURING FRIDAY.
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH VISIBILITIES MVFR TO
IFR IN SHOWERS AND FOG. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SLOWLY FRIDAY
MORNING BEHIND FRONT. TIMING IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS. MVFR TO IFR IN SHOWERS...FOG AND
STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO IFR. N WIND 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. NW WIND
20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NON-OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GUSTS IN STRENGTHENING N-NW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES E OF NEW ENGLAND COULD REACH GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ON THE OCEAN AND THEN ERN
SOUND/BAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE VIA
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS MAY REPLACE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ACROSS NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
DEPENDING ON HOW WELL THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM REMAIN IN TACT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF AROUND 1.75 INCHES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR RAINFALL RATES
TO APPROACH 2 INCHES AN HOUR IN ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. AS A
RESULT EXPECT ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2-3/4 OF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT - WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO DECREASE TO UNDER 1 INCH BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF MINOR URBAN FLOODING IN
THIS TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY BE RESTRICTED TO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...IF ANY OCCURS.
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...THEN
ONLY MINIMAL QPF IN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT/NV
000
FXUS61 KBUF 240228
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1028 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AS MUCH COOLER AIR ENTERS THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY
END FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY AND SET THE STAGE FOR A DRY BUT COOL
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWING LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ASCENT AND DEFORMATION. FARTHER EAST THE
ORIGINAL AREA OF SHOWERS ALSO REMAINS...AND IS PUSHING SLOWLY
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST...LIFT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER TONIGHT WHERE LOWERING
CLOUDS CIGS MAY ALSO BRING REDUCED VISIBILITIES. FOR NOW IN THE
GRIDS WILL JUST INCLUDE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE CONFIDENCE FOR FORMATION IS GREATER DUE TO
THE RECENT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THIS AREA.
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL...INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REACH TOWARDS WESTERN NEW
YORK TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO MAINLY BE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THIS AXIS WHERE THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE FOUND. THIS TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVANCES
SOUTHEASTWARD...AND DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR PULLS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE LINGERING CLOUDS
AND COLD POOL ALOFT (NEAR 0C AT 850 HPA) HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
CHILLY. AN EARLY APRIL FEEL TO THE AIR WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET DURING THE PERIOD AS A
COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD AS THE CUT OFF LOW PROGRESSES INTO NEW ENGLAND. MAIN
CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE
REGION. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN
DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING SURFACE RIDGE TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD
FROST. FREEZING TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY BE TOUGH TO GET WITH
THE TIGHTER GRADIENT IN PLACE...WOULD FEEL MORE CONFIDENT IN A
FREEZE IF WINDS COULD COMPLETELY DROP OFF. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE OUT OF FORECAST...BUT CONTINUE TO MENTION IN
HWO PRODUCT.
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION
MOVING UP INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THAT MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
THE WEST.
BOTH WEEKEND DAYS LOOK TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH SATURDAY THE
COOLEST OF THE TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN COOLER BOTH DAYS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OR AT LEAST THE BULK OF IT CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A HIGH AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER HOLDING THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY LIFTS AWAY FROM
THE AREA. MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDING EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT A WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING SOME MINIMAL RISK OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION LATER IN THE PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION AND KEEP
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS GOING OVERNIGHT EVEN BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF ONGOING RAIN AND A STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
CIGS THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD LOWER TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE. VSBY MAY ALSO BE REDUCED TO AT
LEAST MVFR AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD PREVENT ANY BONIFIDE FOG. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ON THE
HIGHEST HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE THE LOWER
CLOUD DECK MAY INTERSECT THE HILLTOPS.
ON FRIDAY THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. IFR CIGS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR WITH THE END OF RAIN...THEN SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NY AS A DRIER
AIRMASS BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR AS SHOWERS DIMINISH.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND
WITH MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW
WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET ON BOTH LAKES. WAVES WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SOME AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING SOME SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ043-
044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...THOMAS
000
FXUS61 KOKX 240218
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1018 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE THEN FORMS ALONG IT NEAR THE AREA FRIDAY...AND SLOWLY
TRACKS TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIS LOW SLOWLY THEN
LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MAIN AREA OF FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS NE NJ AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS LESS ORGANIZATION
THAN THERE WAS EARLIER IN THE DAY...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUES TO EXACERBATE THE ONGOING FLOODING. NUMEROUS STREAMS
AND RIVERS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS...IN PARTICULAR...ACROSS BERGEN
COUNTY NJ. MOST OF THE RIVER GAUGES ACROSS THIS AREA SHOW MAINLY
MINOR FLOODING...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF SOME PROPERTIES
TAKING ON WATER WITH ABOUT A FOOT OF RUNNING WATER.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ACROSS EASTERN PA...THEIR ARE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THIS AREA...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT FROM NOW UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
THE FRONT THEN ARRIVES AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.
BASED ON THE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...LONGER TERM FLOODING MAY BECOME
AN ISSUE AND AREAL FLOOD WARNING MAY NEED TO REPLACE THE ONGOING
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. THIS WILL DEPEND IN HOW WELL THE CONVECTION
UPSTREAM REMAINS IN TACT.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHING WITH A WEAKENING WIND
SHEAR PROFILE AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL STABILITY.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT COMES TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING WITH
AFOREMENTIONED 250 HPA JET AXIS SLIDING TO OUR EAST ALONG WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TRI-STATE AND
TRACKING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED MOIST S FLOW INT HE MID LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS FROM 700
HPA DOWN TO THE SURFACE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...QUITE LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING TO THE
EAST...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT - ALTHOUGH WEAK - TAKING OVER.
FOR HIGHS FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH A
MIX DOWN FROM 925 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT
OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS
WEEKEND. HAVE SHIFTED FOCUS OF CATEGORICAL POP INITIALLY ON SAT TO
AREAS FROM NYC WEST WHERE HEAVIER COMMA HEAD PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING...THEN E-WARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME
RATHER BRISK BY SAT AFTERNOON...FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH INTO EARLY SAT
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OVER ERN CT/LONG ISLAND VIA SOME
ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. TEMPS
WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY 55-60 AND
DROPPING INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT.
STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY SAT NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS E OF NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY/ISOLD IN
NATURE ON SUNDAY VIA CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL COOL AND BREEZY ON SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S...AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
DRY WX AND A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF NYC.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL AROUND
03Z FOR NEW YORK CITY AND THE TERMINALS TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
SHOWERS BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH AFTER 10Z...AND THEN BECOME NORTHERLY AS THE LOW
MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST DURING FRIDAY.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...THEN IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY GUSTS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...THEN IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY GUSTS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...THEN IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY GUSTS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...THEN IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY GUSTS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...THEN IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY GUSTS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND FOG TONIGHT
WITH IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS. VISIBILITIES LOWER TO IFR LATE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS. MVFR TO IFR IN SHOWERS...FOG AND
STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO IFR. N WIND 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. NW WIND
20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 10-15G20KT ON MONDAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NON-OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GUSTS IN STRENGTHENING N-NW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES E OF NEW ENGLAND COULD REACH GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ON THE OCEAN AND THEN ERN
SOUND/BAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE VIA
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS MAY REPLACE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ACROSS NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
DEPENDING ON HOW WELL THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM REMAIN IN TACT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF AROUND 1.75 INCHES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR RAINFALL RATES
TO APPROACH 2 INCHES AN HOUR IN ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. AS A
RESULT EXPECT ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2-3/4 OF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT - WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO DECREASE TO UNDER 1 INCH BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF MINOR URBAN FLOODING IN
THIS TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY BE RESTRICTED TO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...IF ANY OCCURS.
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...THEN
ONLY MINIMAL QPF IN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KOKX 240047
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
847 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
THEN FORMS ALONG IT NEAR THE AREA FRIDAY...AND SLOWLY TRACKS TO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIS LOW SLOWLY THEN LIFTS
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO NE ORIENTED
FROM SW TO NW FROM AROUND NYC METRO NE INTO SW CT. WHILE THIS AREA
CONTINUES TO BE WORKED OVER...THERE IS STILL DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND EMBEDDED SHORT SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ALOFT. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS DO EXPECT THIS AREA
TO DISSIPATE DUE AIR MASS STABILIZING. NEXT ORGANIZED ROUND WILL
LIKELY COME TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND UPPER
JET DYNAMICS.
TO THE EAST OF THE NYC METRO...ACROSS LI AND SOUTHERN CT...THERE
ARE SIGNS OF A LOW-LEVEL JET AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF
CONVECTION. LATEST RADAR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS SW OF
EASTERN LI...EXTENDING TO EAST OF THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS AREA
DOES NOT HAVE ANY STRONG CONVECTION...BUT THAT MAY CHANGE AS THE
JET INCREASES ACROSS THIS AREA AND THEN TRANSLATES EAST BY EARLY
MORNING.
BOTTOM LINE OVERNIGHT...ANY CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE MINOR NUISANCE...POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING...BUT FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF THE CONVECTION
CONTINUOUSLY MOVES OR TRAINS OVER THE SAME AREA.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT COMES TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING WITH
AFOREMENTIONED 250 HPA JET AXIS SLIDING TO OUR EAST ALONG WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TRI-STATE AND
TRACKING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED MOIST S FLOW INT HE MID LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS FROM 700
HPA DOWN TO THE SURFACE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...QUITE LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING TO THE
EAST...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT - ALTHOUGH WEAK - TAKING OVER.
FOR HIGHS FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH A
MIX DOWN FROM 925 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT
OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS
WEEKEND. HAVE SHIFTED FOCUS OF CATEGORICAL POP INITIALLY ON SAT TO
AREAS FROM NYC WEST WHERE HEAVIER COMMA HEAD PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING...THEN E-WARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME
RATHER BRISK BY SAT AFTERNOON...FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH INTO EARLY SAT
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OVER ERN CT/LONG ISLAND VIA SOME
ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. TEMPS
WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY 55-60 AND
DROPPING INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT.
STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY SAT NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS E OF NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY/ISOLD IN
NATURE ON SUNDAY VIA CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL COOL AND BREEZY ON SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S...AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
DRY WX AND A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF NYC.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL AROUND
03Z FOR NEW YORK CITY AND THE TERMINALS TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
SHOWERS BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH AFTER 10Z...AND THEN BECOME NORTHERLY AS THE LOW
MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST DURING FRIDAY.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...THEN IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY GUSTS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...THEN IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY GUSTS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...THEN IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY GUSTS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...THEN IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY GUSTS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z...THEN IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY GUSTS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND FOG TONIGHT
WITH IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS. VISIBILITIES LOWER TO IFR LATE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS. MVFR TO IFR IN SHOWERS...FOG AND
STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO IFR. N WIND 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. NW WIND
20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 10-15G20KT ON MONDAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NON-OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GUSTS IN STRENGTHENING N-NW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES E OF NEW ENGLAND COULD REACH GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ON THE OCEAN AND THEN ERN
SOUND/BAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE VIA
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN ADDITIONAL 1-1.25 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.75 INCHES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR RAINFALL RATES TO APPROACH 2 INCHES AN HOUR IN STRONGER
CONVECTION. AS A RESULT EXPECT ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BECAUSE FORECAST BASIN AVERAGE
QPF DOES NOT EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...AND ANY FLASH FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME.
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2-3/4 OF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT - WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO DECREASE TO UNDER 1 INCH BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF MINOR URBAN FLOODING IN
THIS TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY BE RESTRICTED TO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...IF ANY OCCURS.
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...THEN
ONLY MINIMAL QPF IN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT/NV
000
FXUS61 KBTV 240016
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
816 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN AS SOME STORMS
WILL MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT MORE
RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A NOREASTER FORMS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 754 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE TEMPS ARE NOW FALLING THROUGH THE 50S. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY GRADUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS REST OF AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN
THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS...THUS FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS
VERMONT. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS TO REFLECT
LATEST CONDITIONS...BUT OVERALL FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LAPS SOUNDING SHOW SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMNS...TALL SKINNY
CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1300 J/KG. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS RUNNING NEAR 4KM
AND PW VALUES NEAR 1.70". BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET ALL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF VERY
EFFICIENT WARM PROCESSES...1 TO 3" HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR TWO
SW-NE ORIENTATED AREAS, ONE IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ANOTHER
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND NE VT. THIS SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING ON
RADAR. SOME AREAS HAVE HAD 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY THIS WEEK SO
CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR MOST
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
FALLING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT WITH THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
SLOWLY SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 454 PM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT
BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AS
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH OVER 100M 12H HGT FALLS REACHING THE
DELMARVA AREA BY 00Z SAT THEN ROTATE NORTH TO CAPE COD BY 00Z SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THEN WAITS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED.
STRONG QG FORCING, WARM MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND STRONG LOW-MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO COMBINE TO BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURE MOSTLY IN THE 40S BUT SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE ALSO PUT A BIT OF WET SNOW AT THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS (ABOVE 2500 FT) ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT ANOTHER 0.75-1.50" OF STEADIER LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 454 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY ON SUNDAY...HOW FAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A
QUESTION. LEANED TOWARD THE EMCWF WHICH IS NOT GREAT NEWS FOR THE
THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE AROUND SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE MARATHON IN BURLINGTON.
KEPT A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING ON SUNDAY, HIGHEST IN THE
MORNING, BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS WITHOUT SHOWERS AS WELL.
RIGHT NOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S SUNDAY MORNING AND AND LOW
TO MID 50S IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE QUITE COLD FOR MAY WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
ON MONDAY THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE MOVING FAR ENOUGH AWAY
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES MOVING BACK INTO
THE 60S.
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE TUE-THU WITH
SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING THE FORECAST BY
WED AND THU AS TEMPERATURE BECOME MORE SUMMER-LIKE WITH RETURNING
HUMIDITY AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH FORMING.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
WHILE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT OF STORMS
WILL DECREASE AS COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO PREVAILING
M,VFR WITH AREAS OF IFR OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHIFTING WINDS THIS
EVENING DUE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SFC
LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLRING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 754 AM THURSDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM
FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY. WATCH FOR MULTIPLE STORMS TO TRACK OVER THE SAME
AREA AND COMBINED WITH RAINFALL RATES AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR...FLASH FLOODING MAY RESULT. THE THREAT WILL TRANSITION ON
FRIDAY FROM FLASH FLOODING TO POTENTIAL RIVER FLOODING AS MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VERMONT. THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.MARINE...
A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR WITH ANY POTENTIAL STORMS...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND/WAVE OCCURRENCE IN VICINITY OF ANY THUNDER.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ001>012-
016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ028>031-034-
035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...RJS
HYDROLOGY...
MARINE...
000
FXUS61 KOKX 240013
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
813 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
THEN FORMS ALONG IT NEAR THE AREA FRIDAY...AND SLOWLY TRACKS TO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIS LOW SLOWLY THEN LIFTS
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO NE ORIENTED
FROM SW TO NW FROM AROUND NYC METRO NE INTO SW CT. WHILE THIS AREA
CONTINUES TO BE WORKED OVER...THERE IS STILL DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND EMBEDDED SHORT SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ALOFT. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS DO EXPECT THIS AREA
TO DISSIPATE DUE AIR MASS STABILIZING. NEXT ORGANIZED ROUND WILL
LIKELY COME TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND UPPER
JET DYNAMICS.
TO THE EAST OF THE NYC METRO...ACROSS LI AND SOUTHERN CT...THERE
ARE SIGNS OF A LOW-LEVEL JET AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF
CONVECTION. LATEST RADAR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS SW OF
EASTERN LI...EXTENDING TO EAST OF THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS AREA
DOES NOT HAVE ANY STRONG CONVECTION...BUT THAT MAY CHANGE AS THE
JET INCREASES ACROSS THIS AREA AND THEN TRANSLATES EAST BY EARLY
MORNING.
BOTTOM LINE OVERNIGHT...ANY CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE MINOR NUISANCE...POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING...BUT FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF THE CONVECTION
CONTINUOUSLY MOVES OR TRAINS OVER THE SAME AREA.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT COMES TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING WITH
AFOREMENTIONED 250 HPA JET AXIS SLIDING TO OUR EAST ALONG WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TRI-STATE AND
TRACKING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED MOIST S FLOW INT HE MID LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS FROM 700
HPA DOWN TO THE SURFACE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...QUITE LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING TO THE
EAST...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT - ALTHOUGH WEAK - TAKING OVER.
FOR HIGHS FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH A
MIX DOWN FROM 925 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT
OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS
WEEKEND. HAVE SHIFTED FOCUS OF CATEGORICAL POP INITIALLY ON SAT TO
AREAS FROM NYC WEST WHERE HEAVIER COMMA HEAD PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING...THEN E-WARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME
RATHER BRISK BY SAT AFTERNOON...FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH INTO EARLY SAT
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OVER ERN CT/LONG ISLAND VIA SOME
ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. TEMPS
WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY 55-60 AND
DROPPING INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT.
STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY SAT NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS E OF NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY/ISOLD IN
NATURE ON SUNDAY VIA CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL COOL AND BREEZY ON SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S...AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
DRY WX AND A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF NYC.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER DAY FOR THE NYC TERMINALS.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CITY TERMINALS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH TONIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE
SPARSE TONIGHT...BUT STILL A POSSIBILITY. IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBY
ARE LIKELY AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS.
MORE STABLE AIR OVER EASTERN SECTIONS...AND THEREFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...AFTER 22Z.
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO IFR OR LESS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT
TODAY. GUSTY WINDS TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AWAY FROM THE COAST MAY GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA...ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE. MVFR TO IFR IN
SHOWERS...FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER. N WINDS 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESEDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 10-15G20KT ON MONDAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NON-OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GUSTS IN STRENGTHENING N-NW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES E OF NEW ENGLAND COULD REACH GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ON THE OCEAN AND THEN ERN
SOUND/BAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE VIA
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN ADDITIONAL 1-1.25 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.75 INCHES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR RAINFALL RATES TO APPROACH 2 INCHES AN HOUR IN STRONGER
CONVECTION. AS A RESULT EXPECT ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BECAUSE FORECAST BASIN AVERAGE
QPF DOES NOT EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...AND ANY FLASH FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME.
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2-3/4 OF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT - WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO DECREASE TO UNDER 1 INCH BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF MINOR URBAN FLOODING IN
THIS TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY BE RESTRICTED TO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...IF ANY OCCURS.
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...THEN
ONLY MINIMAL QPF IN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KALY 232340
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
740 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THEN STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP...INTENSIFY...AND
LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK...WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER EVENTUALLY RETURNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH DOWNPOURS CONTINUE TO
SURGE NORTHWARD INTO A LIMITED AREA OF SOUTHEAST DUTCHESS AND MUCH
OF LITCHFIELD CT...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY NOTED UPSTREAM ON KOKX
RADAR. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS DESPITE LACK OF REPORTS TO THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH DOWNPOURS
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO WANE THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE BEST CAPE IS LOCATED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHICH IS WHERE THE MOST ROBUST
CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR.
BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION CATEGORICAL POPS AND HEAVY RAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REAL SURFACE COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED FROM THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A
SYNOPTIC WIDESPREAD SHOWER EVENT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTOFFS OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST. AS THESE LOWS DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST...THEY WILL KEEP ON AND OFF RAIN/SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD HAVE FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE WEST.
THE COMBINATION OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS/RAIN AND THE COLD POOL
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL PERIOD OF WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THEIR STARTING POINT IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. HIGHS
SATURDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
ON SUNDAY THE UPPER/SFC LOWS SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE
REGION TO PRODUCE ONLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY BE DRY OR ONLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE ECMWF IS
THE MOST PESSIMISTIC WITH PCPN LINGERING INTO MONDAY...BUT HAVE
FORECAST CLOSER TO THE OTHER MODELS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 50 AND 60...WHICH IS STILL 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT STARTING TO BUILD IN. HAVE
FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45.
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
40 TO 50. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT WILL GET EVEN WARMER WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOW OR MID 50S...AND THE HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 00Z SATURDAY. KPOU/KPSF
TERMINALS REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ONE BATCH OF
SHOWERS TO THE EAST...WHILE KALB/KGFL WILL SEE SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED DOWNPOURS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...WITH MAINLY
MVFR/IFR EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUING.
THEREAFTER A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM
SOUTHERLY TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION. FIRST AT KGFL LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN KALB TO KPSF OVERNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY KPOU
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EVEN MUCH OF THE MORNING DUE TO MAINLY
LOW CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH OVC SKIES AND SHOWERS
CONTINUING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS ON FRIDAY. AFTER THAT THE
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF TO OUR WEST IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALSO
OCCURRING ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS
WILL THEN SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS AND TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE
CELLS. AFTER THAT EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF POSSIBLE HEAVY SYNOPTIC
RAINFALL FROM THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS.
ALL OF THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PERIODS OF HEAVY/TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...AND
ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
000
FXUS61 KBGM 232337
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
737 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS
COLD CANADIAN AIR SETTLES SOUTHWARD. BY THE WEEKEND...EXPECT WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH POSSIBLE FROST DEVELOPMENT BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
7 PM...PRE FNTL BNDRY NOW OVER THE CNTR OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE
COLD FNT MVG INTO THE FAR WEST. ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR TEMPS TRENDS
WITH THE INITIAL FALL BHD THE LINE OF CONV...BUT COLDEST AIR STILL
WELL BACK AND JUST ENTERING THE BUF CWA. OTRW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FCST ATTM. PRVS DISC BLO.
MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON POTENTIAL SEVERE WX THIS AFTERNOON AS LONG
AWAITED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THAT SAID...LATEST
SFC ANALYSIS NOW PLACES MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM
PETERBOUROUGH...SOUTHWEST TO NEAR HAMILTON ONTARIO AND APPROACHING
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER REGION OF WESTERN NY. FURTHER TO THE EAST...A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS APPARENT ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH RESIDES FROM NEAR SYR SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. SO FAR REGIONAL RADAR HAS SHOWN FAIRLY
DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER EAST ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS
THE BGM CWA. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...ATTENTION WILL
ALSO BE FOCUSED ON POSSIBLE HYDRO CONCERNS AS HEAVY RAINS IN
RECENT DAYS COMBINED WITH A STILL ABNORMALLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOOD CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS. THAT SAID...WE CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SHORT-FUSED FLASH FLOOD
WATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT INITIAL RADAR TRENDS
DEPICTING STEADY NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT ALONG WITH THE
DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE OF CONVECTION ON RADAR SUGGEST HOLDING OFF
MAY BE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.
NOW TO THE MEAT AND POTATOES OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...
DEEP UPPER POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT
ADVECTING HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC. WITH WELL-ESTABLISHED SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES CONTINUE RIDING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FCST REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAIN TROUGH PV
ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE STILL DISPLACED WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL
DEPICTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW/MID-LEVEL STATUS WHICH HAS HAMPERED
THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS TO SOME DEGREE...AS LATEST SPC MLCAPE
VALUES AVAILABLE FROM THE MESOANALYSIS PAGE ONLY SHOW ROUGHLY 500
JOULES ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN NY. THE ABOVE SAID...WE/RE STILL BY
NO MEANS OUT OF THE WOODS AS INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE APPROACHING FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH COMBINED WITH BETTER
FORCING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ARRIVES WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHWR/STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS.
INSPECTION OF SEVERAL BUFKIT FCST SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM BUF/PIT/ALB STILL SHOW DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALOFT ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE 600-HPA
LEVEL. THAT COMBINED WITH RECENT WATER VAPOR TRENDS SHOWING
ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL DRYING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SUGGEST THAT
IF SEVERE WX WERE TO DEVELOP...THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE STRONG
DOWNDRAFT WINDS. CONSIDERING THAT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS REMAIN
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO BOTH THE FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO SHORT BOWING SEGMENTS OR A
CONGEALED LINE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SPC MAINTAINS A SLGT RISK
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AND
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD ALOFT...IF STORMS WERE
TO GET ORGANIZED...SEVERE CERTAINLY APPEARS POSSIBLE.
COLD FRONT TO BLOW THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING WITH AN
ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SIGNALING THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH
COOLER AIR FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. DESPITE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS FRONT APPEARS TO
HAVE ANAFRONT CHARACTERISTICS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT
PROVIDED BY THE NEXT ARRIVING UPSTREAM WAVE NOTED OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING
FRIDAY BEFORE SHOWING A STEADY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. TRICKY
FCST WITH RESPECT TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AS COOLER AIR WILL BE SETTLING
INTO THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS. FOR NOW...GENERALLY
FOLLOWED AVAILABLE MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EARLY MORNING RAINS SHOULD SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY MORNING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES ADVECTING ACROSS
OUR REGION. EXPECT A FAIRLY BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. RAIN POSSIBILITIES TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER WAVE CONGEALS INTO A CLOSED UPPER
LOW WHICH WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND.
MAIN CONCERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIKELY FROST/FREEZE
CONCERNS AS MUCH COOLER AIR SETTLES IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEW GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING WELL INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BOTH SAT/SUN NIGHTS WITH LOW 30S NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION ACROSS THE TRADITIONALLY FAVORED COOLER LOCATIONS.
WE DEFINITELY EXPECT THE NEED FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT WILL
ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO HANDLE THIS AS A RESULT DISTANCE INTO THE
FCST PERIOD. IN GENERAL THOUGH...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL HOLIDAY
WEEKEND SHAPING UP FOR THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NWRD OUT OF NEW ENG WHILE A NLY FLOW OF COLD
AIR CONTS OVER THE FCST AREA. STRONG SUN ANGLE HELPS TOP MODIFY
THE AIR MASS BUT IT WILL STILL BE COOLER THAN NRML FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES LATE
TUE INTO WED AS THE HI RETREATES AND WRM FNT OVER THE MIDWEST
PUSHES NE. MUCH WRMR AIR RETURNS FOR WED AND WITH THE FNT STILL
OVER NRN NY AND WRN NEW ENG...PSBLTY OF SOME TRWS THRU THE END OF
THE PD.
MODEL GUID IN LINE WITH HPC GUID WHICH WAS FOLLOWED FOR THIS FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL FINISH EXITING THE
AREA THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...INCLUDING HITTING KAVP WITH BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE MAIN LINE...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL STILL OCCUR TAKING MOST TERMINALS IN AND OUT OF MVFR ALONG
WITH FLUCTUATING WIND. HOWEVER...THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD
FRONT...WHICH AT 00Z IS STILL PROGRESSING THROUGH WESTERN
NY...WILL DRAG OVER THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING WITH A QUICK
LOWERING OF CIGS TO FUEL ALTERNATE MVFR LEVELS AND VEERING OF
PREDOMINANT WIND TO NORTHWEST. CIGS MAY EVEN GET INTO IFR LEVELS
DURING PREDAWN HOURS KBGM-KITH. NOT IN TAFS FOR OTHER TERMINALS
BECAUSE OF LOWER LIKELIHOOD...YET ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
A RAW DAY WITH COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOGGING OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY. THIS WILL INCLUDE MVFR CIGS...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS /THOUGH
DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY/...AND NW TO NNW WINDS
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT/EARLY SAT...PSBL LINGERING MVFR CIGS AND SCT SHRA FOR
KBGM...KAVP...AND KRME.
SAT MID MORNING THROUGH TUE...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG/DGM
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MDP
000
FXUS61 KBUF 232319
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
719 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AS MUCH COOLER AIR ENTERS THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY
END FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY AND SET THE STAGE FOR A DRY BUT COOL
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM MID
LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES.
SURFACE OBS SHOWING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED MOST OF THE
CWA AT 23Z...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
SHORTLY. TEMPERATURES ARE TAKING A NOSE DIVE AS STRONG CAA TAKES
HOLD BEHIND THE FRONT.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING THE GREATER INSTABILITY. A SCATTERED
STORM OR TWO IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND LEWIS COUNTY...BUT AFTER THAT ANY THUNDER
RISK WILL BE OVER AS A MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS SWEEPS
INTO THE REGION.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL COLD TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST...LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER LATER TONIGHT WHERE LOWERING
CLOUDS CIGS MAY ALSO BRING REDUCED VISIBILITIES. FOR NOW IN THE
GRIDS WILL JUST INCLUDE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE CONFIDENCE FOR FORMATION IS GREATER DUE TO
THE RECENT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THIS AREA.
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL...INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REACH TOWARDS WESTERN NEW
YORK TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO MAINLY BE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THIS AXIS WHERE THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE FOUND. THIS TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVANCES
SOUTHEASTWARD...AND DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR PULLS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE LINGERING CLOUDS
AND COLD POOL ALOFT (NEAR 0C AT 850 HPA) HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
CHILLY. AN EARLY APRIL FEEL TO THE AIR WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET DURING THE PERIOD AS A
COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD AS THE CUT OFF LOW PROGRESSES INTO NEW ENGLAND. MAIN
CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE
REGION. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN
DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING SURFACE RIDGE TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD
FROST. FREEZING TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY BE TOUGH TO GET WITH
THE TIGHTER GRADIENT IN PLACE...WOULD FEEL MORE CONFIDENT IN A
FREEZE IF WINDS COULD COMPLETELY DROP OFF. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE OUT OF FORECAST...BUT CONTINUE TO MENTION IN
HWO PRODUCT.
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION
MOVING UP INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THAT MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
THE WEST.
BOTH WEEKEND DAYS LOOK TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH SATURDAY THE
COOLEST OF THE TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN COOLER BOTH DAYS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OR AT LEAST THE BULK OF IT CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A HIGH AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER HOLDING THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY LIFTS AWAY FROM
THE AREA. MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDING EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT A WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING SOME MINIMAL RISK OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION LATER IN THE PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION AND KEEP
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS GOING OVERNIGHT EVEN BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF ONGOING RAIN AND A STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
CIGS THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD LOWER TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE. VSBY MAY ALSO BE REDUCED TO AT
LEAST MVFR AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD PREVENT ANY BONIFIDE FOG. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ON THE
HIGHEST HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE THE LOWER
CLOUD DECK MAY INTERSECT THE HILLTOPS.
ON FRIDAY THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. IFR CIGS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR WITH THE END OF RAIN...THEN SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NY AS A DRIER
AIRMASS BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR AS SHOWERS DIMINISH.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND
WITH MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW
WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET ON BOTH LAKES. WAVES WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SOME AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING SOME SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM
EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...THOMAS
000
FXUS61 KBGM 232250
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
650 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS
COLD CANADIAN AIR SETTLES SOUTHWARD. BY THE WEEKEND...EXPECT WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH POSSIBLE FROST DEVELOPMENT BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
7 PM...PRE FNTL BNDRY NOW OVER THE CNTR OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE
COLD FNT MVG INTO THE FAR WEST. ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR TEMPS TRENDS
WITH THE INITIAL FALL BHD THE LINE OF CONV...BUT COLDEST AIR STILL
WELL BACK AND JUST ENTERING THE BUF CWA. OTRW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FCST ATTM. PRVS DISC BLO.
MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON POTENTIAL SEVERE WX THIS AFTERNOON AS LONG
AWAITED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THAT SAID...LATEST
SFC ANALYSIS NOW PLACES MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM
PETERBOUROUGH...SOUTHWEST TO NEAR HAMILTON ONTARIO AND APPROACHING
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER REGION OF WESTERN NY. FURTHER TO THE EAST...A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS APPARENT ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH RESIDES FROM NEAR SYR SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. SO FAR REGIONAL RADAR HAS SHOWN FAIRLY
DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER EAST ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS
THE BGM CWA. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...ATTENTION WILL
ALSO BE FOCUSED ON POSSIBLE HYDRO CONCERNS AS HEAVY RAINS IN
RECENT DAYS COMBINED WITH A STILL ABNORMALLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOOD CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS. THAT SAID...WE CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SHORT-FUSED FLASH FLOOD
WATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT INITIAL RADAR TRENDS
DEPICTING STEADY NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT ALONG WITH THE
DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE OF CONVECTION ON RADAR SUGGEST HOLDING OFF
MAY BE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.
NOW TO THE MEAT AND POTATOES OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...
DEEP UPPER POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT
ADVECTING HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC. WITH WELL-ESTABLISHED SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES CONTINUE RIDING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FCST REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAIN TROUGH PV
ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE STILL DISPLACED WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL
DEPICTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW/MID-LEVEL STATUS WHICH HAS HAMPERED
THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS TO SOME DEGREE...AS LATEST SPC MLCAPE
VALUES AVAILABLE FROM THE MESOANALYSIS PAGE ONLY SHOW ROUGHLY 500
JOULES ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN NY. THE ABOVE SAID...WE/RE STILL BY
NO MEANS OUT OF THE WOODS AS INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE APPROACHING FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH COMBINED WITH BETTER
FORCING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ARRIVES WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHWR/STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS.
INSPECTION OF SEVERAL BUFKIT FCST SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM BUF/PIT/ALB STILL SHOW DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALOFT ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE 600-HPA
LEVEL. THAT COMBINED WITH RECENT WATER VAPOR TRENDS SHOWING
ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL DRYING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SUGGEST THAT
IF SEVERE WX WERE TO DEVELOP...THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE STRONG
DOWNDRAFT WINDS. CONSIDERING THAT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS REMAIN
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO BOTH THE FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO SHORT BOWING SEGMENTS OR A
CONGEALED LINE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SPC MAINTAINS A SLGT RISK
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AND
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD ALOFT...IF STORMS WERE
TO GET ORGANIZED...SEVERE CERTAINLY APPEARS POSSIBLE.
COLD FRONT TO BLOW THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING WITH AN
ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SIGNALING THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH
COOLER AIR FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. DESPITE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS FRONT APPEARS TO
HAVE ANAFRONT CHARACTERISTICS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT
PROVIDED BY THE NEXT ARRIVING UPSTREAM WAVE NOTED OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING
FRIDAY BEFORE SHOWING A STEADY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. TRICKY
FCST WITH RESPECT TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AS COOLER AIR WILL BE SETTLING
INTO THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS. FOR NOW...GENERALLY
FOLLOWED AVAILABLE MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EARLY MORNING RAINS SHOULD SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY MORNING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES ADVECTING ACROSS
OUR REGION. EXPECT A FAIRLY BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. RAIN POSSIBILITIES TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER WAVE CONGEALS INTO A CLOSED UPPER
LOW WHICH WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND.
MAIN CONCERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIKELY FROST/FREEZE
CONCERNS AS MUCH COOLER AIR SETTLES IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEW GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING WELL INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BOTH SAT/SUN NIGHTS WITH LOW 30S NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION ACROSS THE TRADITIONALLY FAVORED COOLER LOCATIONS.
WE DEFINITELY EXPECT THE NEED FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT WILL
ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO HANDLE THIS AS A RESULT DISTANCE INTO THE
FCST PERIOD. IN GENERAL THOUGH...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL HOLIDAY
WEEKEND SHAPING UP FOR THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NWRD OUT OF NEW ENG WHILE A NLY FLOW OF COLD
AIR CONTS OVER THE FCST AREA. STRONG SUN ANGLE HELPS TOP MODIFY
THE AIR MASS BUT IT WILL STILL BE COOLER THAN NRML FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES LATE
TUE INTO WED AS THE HI RETREATES AND WRM FNT OVER THE MIDWEST
PUSHES NE. MUCH WRMR AIR RETURNS FOR WED AND WITH THE FNT STILL
OVER NRN NY AND WRN NEW ENG...PSBLTY OF SOME TRWS THRU THE END OF
THE PD.
MODEL GUID IN LINE WITH HPC GUID WHICH WAS FOLLOWED FOR THIS FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR LOW AND SFC COLD FNT CONTS TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST TODAY. SCT
CONV IS PSBL AHD OF THE FNT THRU THE AFTN PD FLWD BY NARROW LINE
ARND THE TIME OF FNTL PASSAGE. GNRL VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE
OF ANY TRWS...WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY DURING THE STORMS.
BHD THE FNT...VERY STRONG CAA WILL RESULT IN LWRD CIGS AND VSBYS
IN NUMEROUS SHWRS. XPCT LTL IMPRVMT UNTIL LATE IN THE PD WHEN SOME
MIXING WILL HELP RAISE CIGS AND VSBY BEFORE THE END OF THE PD. SW
WINDS WILL BE COMMON AHD OF THE FNT...WITH A FEW GUSTS ESP INVOF
TRWS. BHD THE COLD FNT NWLY WINDS XPCTD.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...PSBL LINGERING RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.
SUN - TUE...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG/DGM
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM
000
FXUS61 KALY 232134
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
535 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THEN STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION
INTO MIDWEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 PM...THREE BANDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS NOTED ON RADAR. THE
FIRST TWO ARE FROM ALANY SOUTH AND EAST...AND ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF
MERGER. RAINFALL WITH THESE BANDS IS NOT AS INTENSE AS EARLIER IN
THE DAY...BUT THERE STILL EXIST SOME ISOLATED CELLS WITH TORRENTIAL
RAIN...AND THERE STILL IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR TRAINING ECHOES. THE
OTHER BAND IS NOW ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONIGHT SINCE
THESE THREE BANDS WILL EVENTUALLY PRODUCE RAINFALL IN ALL PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THORUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
THE SEVERE TSTM THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHED AT THIS POINT SINCE
NONE OF THE CELLS IN THESE BANDS HAS PRODUCED ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A
SYNOPTIC WIDESPREAD SHOWER EVENT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTOFFS OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST. AS THESE LOWS DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST...THEY WILL KEEP ON AND OFF RAIN/SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD HAVE FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE WEST.
THE COMBINATION OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS/RAIN AND THE COLD POOL
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL PERIOD OF WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THEIR STARTING POINT IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. HIGHS
SATURDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
ON SUNDAY THE UPPER/SFC LOWS SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE
REGION TO PRODUCE ONLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY BE DRY OR ONLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE ECMWF IS
THE MOST PESSIMISTIC WITH PCPN LINGERING INTO MONDAY...BUT HAVE
FORECAST CLOSER TO THE OTHER MODELS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 50 AND 60...WHICH IS STILL 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELWO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT STARTING TO BUILD IN. HAVE
FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45.
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
40 TO 50. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT WILL GET EVEN WARMER WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOW OR MID 50S...AND THE HIGHS THURSDAY IN THWE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT SWITCHES SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND TO NORTHERLY SOMETIME
AROUND DAYBREAK UPON ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE AIRPORTS. LOW PRESSURE
RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. NO SHEAR ISSUES.
OUTLOOK...
FRI PM-SAT...MAINLY VFR. -SHRA LIKELY.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR...CHC -SHRA.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...WET FLAG DAY FOR FRIDAY...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS ON FRIDAY. AFTER THAT THE
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF TO OUR WEST IS FORECAST TO CUTOFF ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENTALSO OCCURRING
ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS WILL THEN
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS AND TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE
CELLS. AFTER THAT EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF POSSIBLE HEAVY SYNOPTIC
RAINFALL FROM THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS.
ALL OF THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PERIODS OF HEAVY/TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...AND
ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
000
FXUS61 KBTV 232054
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
454 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN AS SOME STORMS
WILL MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT MORE
RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A NOREASTER FORMS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 454 PM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING EXCEPT HAVE TRIED TO SHOW MORE COOLING TO
TEMPERATURES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT PUSHING TOWARD KMSS WHERE TEMPS FALL QUICKLY BACK INTO THE
50S AND 40S NOT THAT FAR AWAY.
LAPS SOUNDING SHOW SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMNS...TALL SKINNY
CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1300 J/KG. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS RUNNING NEAR 4KM
AND PW VALUES NEAR 1.70". BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET ALL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF VERY
EFFICIENT WARM PROCESSES...1 TO 3" HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR TWO
SW-NE ORIENTATED AREAS, ONE IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ANOTHER
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND NE VT. THIS SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING ON
RADAR. SOME AREAS HAVE HAD 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY THIS WEEK SO
CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR MOST
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
FALLING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT WITH THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
SLOWLY SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 454 PM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT
BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AS
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH OVER 100M 12H HGT FALLS REACHING THE
DELMARMA AREA BY 00Z SAT THEN ROTATE NORTH TO CAPE COD BY 00Z SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THEN WAITS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED.
STRONG QG FORCING, WARM MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND STRONG LOW-MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO COMBINE TO BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURE MOSTLY IN THE 40S BUT SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE ALSO PUT A BIT OF WET SNOW AT THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS (ABOVE 2500 FT) ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT ANOTHER 0.75-1.50" OF STEADIER LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 454 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY ON SUNDAY...HOW FAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A
QUESTION. LEANED TOWARD THE EMCWF WHICH IS NOT GREAT NEWS FOR THE
THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE AROUND SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE MARATHON IN BURLINGTON.
KEPT A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING ON SUNDAY, HIGHEST IN THE
MORNING, BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS WITHOUT SHOWERS AS WELL.
RIGHT NOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S SUNDAY MORNING AND AND LOW
TO MID 50S IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE QUITE COLD FOR MAY WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
ON MONDAY THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE MOVING FAR ENOUGH AWAY
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES MOVING BACK INTO
THE 60S.
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE TUE-THU WITH
SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING THE FORECAST BY
WED AND THU AS TEMPERATURE BECOME MORE SUMMER-LIKE WITH RETURNING
HUMDITY AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH FORMING.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR COND THIS AFTNOON AS RW/TRW DEVELOP
OVER AREA. THRU 00Z FRI...VSBY 2-5SM IN -RW/FG W/ LOWEST VSBY IN
TRW. CEILINGS RANGING FROM BKN015-035 W/ LWR CEILINGS FOR CB/TRW
DEVELOPMENT. AFT 00Z FRI...-RW/FG WILL PERSIST WITH VSBY DOWN TO
3-6SM. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MAINLY OVC010-015 W/ SCT CLDS BLW
OVC010. WINDS SSW 10-20KTS THRU 00Z-02Z FRI THEN SHIFTING TO NW-
NE 5-15KTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF SITES
THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WL DEVELOP AS SFC LOW PRES
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLRING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXISTS FROM NOON TODAY
UNTIL 8AM FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. WATCH FOR MULTIPLE STORMS TO TRACK OVER
THE SAME AREA AND COMBINED WITH RAINFALL RATES AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR...FLASH FLOODING MAY RESULT. THE THREAT WILL
TRANSITION ON FRIDAY FROM FLASH FLOODING TO POTENTIAL RIVER
FLOODING AS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.MARINE...
A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT FOR THE
ENTIRE LAKE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
EXPECTING HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR WITH ANY POTENTIAL
STORMS...ALONG WITH STRONG WIND/WAVE OCCURRENCE IN VICINITY OF ANY
THUNDER.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ001>012-
016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ028>031-034-
035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...JN/TABER
HYDROLOGY...
MARINE...
000
FXUS61 KOKX 232039
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
439 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
THEN FORMS ALONG IT NEAR THE AREA FRIDAY...AND SLOWLY TRACKS TO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIS LOW SLOWLY THEN LIFTS
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HRRR/RAP/NAM/SREF IDEA OF
SHRA/TSRA INITIALLY BEING CONFINED TO THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA...THEN
EXPANDING TO THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING - NOTING
AREA OF CONVECTION OFF THE DELMARVA LIFTING NNE...AND APPROACH OF
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE.
THE COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
REGION...THE AREA BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 110+ KT
250 HPA JET...AND DEVELOPING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD
FOR DETAILS.
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS OVER NW ZONES INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOUR...AND THEN SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT COMES TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING WITH
AFOREMENTIONED 250 HPA JET AXIS SLIDING TO OUR EAST ALONG WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TRI-STATE AND
TRACKING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED MOIST S FLOW INT HE MID LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS FROM 700
HPA DOWN TO THE SURFACE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...QUITE LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING TO THE
EAST...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT - ALTHOUGH WEAK - TAKING OVER.
FOR HIGHS FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH A
MIX DOWN FROM 925 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT
OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS
WEEKEND. HAVE SHIFTED FOCUS OF CATEGORICAL POP INITIALLY ON SAT TO
AREAS FROM NYC WEST WHERE HEAVIER COMMA HEAD PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING...THEN E-WARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME
RATHER BRISK BY SAT AFTERNOON...FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH INTO EARLY SAT
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OVER ERN CT/LONG ISLAND VIA SOME
ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. TEMPS
WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY 55-60 AND
DROPPING INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT.
STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY SAT NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS E OF NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY/ISOLD IN
NATURE ON SUNDAY VIA CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL COOL AND BREEZY ON SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S...AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
DRY WX AND A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF NYC.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER DAY FOR THE NYC TERMINALS.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CITY TERMINALS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH TONIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE
SPARSE TONIGHT...BUT STILL A POSSIBILITY. IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBY
ARE LIKELY AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS.
MORE STABLE AIR OVER EASTERN SECTIONS...AND THEREFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...AFTER 22Z.
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO IFR OR LESS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT
TODAY. GUSTY WINDS TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AWAY FROM THE COAST MAY GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA...ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE. MVFR TO IFR IN
SHOWERS...FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER. N WINDS 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESEDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 10-15G20KT ON MONDAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WEB-CAMS SHOW VISIBILITIES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND NY HARBOR
CONTINUE TO BE UNDER A MILE AT TIMES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE WATERS S AND W OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH 9 PM
FOR THE PATCHY DENSE FOG.
OTHERWISE...SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD PORTION
OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL. NON-OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GUSTS IN STRENGTHENING N-NW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES E OF NEW ENGLAND COULD REACH GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TON CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ON THE OCEAN AND THEN ERN
SOUND/BAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE VIA
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN ADDITIONAL 1-1.25 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.75 INCHES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR RAINFALL RATES TO APPROACH 2 INCHES AN HOUR IN STRONGER
CONVECTION. AS A RESULT EXPECT ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BECAUSE FORECAST BASIN AVERAGE
QPF DOES NOT EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...AND ANY FLASH FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME.
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2-3/4 OF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT - WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO DECREASE TO UNDER 1 INCH BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF MINOR URBAN FLOODING IN
THIS TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY BE RESTRICTED TO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...IF ANY OCCURS.
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...THEN
ONLY MINIMAL QPF IN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JP/MET
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT/NV
000
FXUS61 KBGM 232012
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
412 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS
COLD CANADIAN AIR SETTLES SOUTHWARD. BY THE WEEKEND...EXPECT WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH POSSIBLE FROST DEVELOPMENT BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON POTENTIAL SEVERE WX THIS AFTERNOON AS LONG
AWAITED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THAT SAID...LATEST
SFC ANALYSIS NOW PLACES MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM
PETERBOUROUGH...SOUTHWEST TO NEAR HAMILTON ONTARIO AND APPROACHING
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER REGION OF WESTERN NY. FURTHER TO THE EAST...A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS APPARENT ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH RESIDES FROM NEAR SYR SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. SO FAR REGIONAL RADAR HAS SHOWN FAIRLY
DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER EAST ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS
THE BGM CWA. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...ATTENTION WILL
ALSO BE FOCUSED ON POSSIBLE HYDRO CONCERNS AS HEAVY RAINS IN
RECENT DAYS COMBINED WITH A STILL ABNORMALLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOOD CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS. THAT SAID...WE CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SHORT-FUSED FLASH FLOOD
WATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT INITIAL RADAR TRENDS
DEPICTING STEADY NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT ALONG WITH THE
DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE OF CONVECTION ON RADAR SUGGEST HOLDING OFF
MAY BE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.
NOW TO THE MEAT AND POTATOES OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...
DEEP UPPER POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT
ADVECTING HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC. WITH WELL-ESTABLISHED SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES CONTINUE RIDING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FCST REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAIN TROUGH PV
ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE STILL DISPLACED WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL
DEPICTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW/MID-LEVEL STATUS WHICH HAS HAMPERED
THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS TO SOME DEGREE...AS LATEST SPC MLCAPE
VALUES AVAILABLE FROM THE MESOANALYSIS PAGE ONLY SHOW ROUGHLY 500
JOULES ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN NY. THE ABOVE SAID...WE/RE STILL BY
NO MEANS OUT OF THE WOODS AS INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE APPROACHING FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH COMBINED WITH BETTER
FORCING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ARRIVES WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHWR/STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS.
INSPECTION OF SEVERAL BUFKIT FCST SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM BUF/PIT/ALB STILL SHOW DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALOFT ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE 600-HPA
LEVEL. THAT COMBINED WITH RECENT WATER VAPOR TRENDS SHOWING
ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL DRYING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SUGGEST THAT
IF SEVERE WX WERE TO DEVELOP...THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE STRONG
DOWNDRAFT WINDS. CONSIDERING THAT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS REMAIN
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO BOTH THE FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO SHORT BOWING SEGMENTS OR A
CONGEALED LINE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SPC MAINTAINS A SLGT RISK
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AND
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD ALOFT...IF STORMS WERE
TO GET ORGANIZED...SEVERE CERTAINLY APPEARS POSSIBLE.
COLD FRONT TO BLOW THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING WITH AN
ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SIGNALING THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH
COOLER AIR FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. DESPITE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS FRONT APPEARS TO
HAVE ANAFRONT CHARACTERISTICS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT
PROVIDED BY THE NEXT ARRIVING UPSTREAM WAVE NOTED OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING
FRIDAY BEFORE SHOWING A STEADY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. TRICKY
FCST WITH RESPECT TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AS COOLER AIR WILL BE SETTLING
INTO THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS. FOR NOW...GENERALLY
FOLLOWED AVAILABLE MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EARLY MORNING RAINS SHOULD SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY MORNING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES ADVECTING ACROSS
OUR REGION. EXPECT A FAIRLY BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. RAIN POSSIBILITIES TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER WAVE CONGEALS INTO A CLOSED UPPER
LOW WHICH WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND.
MAIN CONCERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIKELY FROST/FREEZE
CONCERNS AS MUCH COOLER AIR SETTLES IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEW GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING WELL INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BOTH SAT/SUN NIGHTS WITH LOW 30S NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION ACROSS THE TRADITIONALLY FAVORED COOLER LOCATIONS.
WE DEFINITELY EXPECT THE NEED FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BUT WILL
ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO HANDLE THIS AS A RESULT DISTANCE INTO THE
FCST PERIOD. IN GENERAL THOUGH...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL HOLIDAY
WEEKEND SHAPING UP FOR THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NWRD OUT OF NEW ENG WHILE A NLY FLOW OF COLD
AIR CONTS OVER THE FCST AREA. STRONG SUN ANGLE HELPS TOP MODIFY
THE AIR MASS BUT IT WILL STILL BE COOLER THAN NRML FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES LATE
TUE INTO WED AS THE HI RETREATES AND WRM FNT OVER THE MIDWEST
PUSHES NE. MUCH WRMR AIR RETURNS FOR WED AND WITH THE FNT STILL
OVER NRN NY AND WRN NEW ENG...PSBLTY OF SOME TRWS THRU THE END OF
THE PD.
MODEL GUID IN LINE WITH HPC GUID WHICH WAS FOLLOWED FOR THIS FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR LOW AND SFC COLD FNT CONTS TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST TODAY. SCT
CONV IS PSBL AHD OF THE FNT THRU THE AFTN PD FLWD BY NARROW LINE
ARND THE TIME OF FNTL PASSAGE. GNRL VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE
OF ANY TRWS...WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY DURING THE STORMS.
BHD THE FNT...VERY STRONG CAA WILL RESULT IN LWRD CIGS AND VSBYS
IN NUMEROUS SHWRS. XPCT LTL IMPRVMT UNTIL LATE IN THE PD WHEN SOME
MIXING WILL HELP RAISE CIGS AND VSBY BEFORE THE END OF THE PD. SW
WINDS WILL BE COMMON AHD OF THE FNT...WITH A FEW GUSTS ESP INVOF
TRWS. BHD THE COLD FNT NWLY WINDS XPCTD.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...PSBL LINGERING RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.
SUN - TUE...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM
000
FXUS61 KOKX 232004
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
404 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
THEN FORMS ALONG IT NEAR THE AREA FRIDAY...AND SLOWLY TRACKS TO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIS LOW SLOWLY THEN LIFTS
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HRRR/RAP/NAM/SREF IDEA OF
SHRA/TSRA INITIALLY BEING CONFINED TO THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA...THEN
EXPANDING TO THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING - NOTING
AREA OF CONVECTION OFF THE DELMARVA LIFTING NNE...AND APPROACH OF
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE.
THE COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
REGION...THE AREA BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 110+ KT
250 HPA JET...AND DEVELOPING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD
FOR DETAILS.
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS OVER NW ZONES INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOUR...AND THEN SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT COMES TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING WITH
AFOREMENTIONED 250 HPA JET AXIS SLIDING TO OUR EAST ALONG WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TRI-STATE AND
TRACKING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED MOIST S FLOW INT HE MID LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS FROM 700
HPA DOWN TO THE SURFACE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...QUITE LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING TO THE
EAST...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT - ALTHOUGH WEAK - TAKING OVER.
FOR HIGHS FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH A
MIX DOWN FROM 925 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT
OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS
WEEKEND. HAVE SHIFTED FOCUS OF CATEGORICAL POP INITIALLY ON SAT TO
AREAS FROM NYC WEST WHERE HEAVIER COMMA HEAD PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING...THEN E-WARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME
RATHER BRISK BY SAT AFTERNOON...FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH INTO EARLY SAT
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A TSTM OVER ERN CT/LONG ISLAND VIA SOME
ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. TEMPS
WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY 55-60 AND
DROPPING INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT.
STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY SAT NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS E OF NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY/ISOLD IN
NATURE ON SUNDAY VIA CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
STILL COOL AND BREEZY ON SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S...AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
DRY WX AND A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF NYC.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER DAY FOR THE NYC TERMINALS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA TODAY...MOVING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY.
VFR CIGS AND VIS AT KLGA AND KJFK WILL LOWER TO MVFR...ESPECIALLY
IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS.
FOG JUST OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND MAY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO KJFK. ALSO...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL JERSEY COAST AND IS MOVING NORTHWARD.
WILL IMPACT KJFK AND KLGA AROUND 18Z.
FOR THE CITY TERMINALS...SHOWERS WILL POP UP AT ANY TIME...SOME OF
WHICH WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS...SO WENT PREVAILING SHRA AND TEMPO
-TSRA. MORE STABLE AIR OVER EASTERN SECTIONS...AND THEREFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...AFTER 22Z.
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO IFR OR LESS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
INTRODUCE THUNDER TO THE TERMINALS EAST OF NYC IN A PROB30 GROUP
AFTER 00Z AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE TERMINALS THERE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT
TODAY. GUSTY WINDS TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AWAY FROM THE COAST MAY GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. FOG AND STRATUS
OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND COULD MOVE IN...BRINGING VSBY
AND CIGS TO IFR.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA...ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE. MVFR TO IFR IN
SHOWERS...FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER. N WINDS 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
WEB-CAMS SHOW VISIBILITIES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND NY HARBOR
CONTINUE TO BE UNDER A MILE AT TIMES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE WATERS S AND W OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH 9 PM
FOR THE PATCHY DENSE FOG.
OTHERWISE...SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD PORTION
OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL. NON-OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
GUSTS IN STRENGTHENING N-NW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES E OF NEW ENGLAND COULD REACH GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TON CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ON THE OCEAN AND THEN ERN
SOUND/BAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE VIA
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN ADDITIONAL 1-1.25 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.75 INCHES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR RAINFALL RATES TO APPROACH 2 INCHES AN HOUR IN STRONGER
CONVECTION. AS A RESULT EXPECT ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BECAUSE FORECAST BASIN AVERAGE
QPF DOES NOT EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...AND ANY FLASH FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME.
AN ADDITIONAL 1/2-3/4 OF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT - WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO DECREASE TO UNDER 1 INCH BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF MINOR URBAN FLOODING IN
THIS TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY BE RESTRICTED TO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...IF ANY OCCURS.
BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...THEN
ONLY MINIMAL QPF IN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT
000
FXUS61 KBUF 231950
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
350 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT PUSHING HUMIDITY
AND THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD. HOWEVER LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NEARS. LIGHT RAIN WILL END THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS MOVING IN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE
REGION. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION WITH
STORMS FORMING ON THE EDGE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES
BETWEEN THE CLOUDS/ LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES/ AND OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. STORMS ARE ALSO FORMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE MORE INSTABILITY IS FOUND. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY STILL BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING
AN END TO THE THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD TROUGH STILL TO OUR
WEST...LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE THE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER OUR REGION. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE WHERE
A CHILLY WIND OVER THE LAKES AND STILL ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BRING PATCHY AREAS OF FOG. ALSO FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE LOWERING CLOUDS CIGS
MAY ALSO BRING REDUCED VISIBILITIES. FOR NOW IN THE GRIDS WILL JUST
INCLUDE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE CONFIDENCE FOR FORMATION IS GREATER DUE TO THE RECENT SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THIS AREA.
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL...INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REACH TOWARDS WESTERN NEW
YORK TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO MAINLY BE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THIS AXIS WHERE THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE FOUND. THIS TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVANCES
SOUTHEASTWARD...AND DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR PULLS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE LINGERING CLOUDS
AND COLD POOL ALOFT (NEAR 0C AT 850 HPA) HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
CHILLY. AN EARLY APRIL FEEL TO THE AIR WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET DURING THE PERIOD AS A
COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD AS THE CUT OFF LOW PROGRESSES INTO NEW ENGLAND. MAIN
CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE
REGION. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN
DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING SURFACE RIDGE TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD
FROST. FREEZING TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY BE TOUGH TO GET WITH
THE TIGHTER GRADIENT IN PLACE...WOULD FEEL MORE CONFIDENT IN A
FREEZE IF WINDS COULD COMPLETELY DROP OFF. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE OUT OF FORECAST...BUT CONTINUE TO MENTION IN
HWO PRODUCT.
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION
MOVING UP INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THAT MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
THE WEST.
BOTH WEEKEND DAYS LOOK TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH SATURDAY THE
COOLEST OF THE TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN COOLER BOTH DAYS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OR AT LEAST THE BULK OF IT CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A HIGH AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER HOLDING THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY LIFTS AWAY FROM
THE AREA. MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDING EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT A WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING SOME MINIMAL RISK OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION LATER IN THE PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 18Z MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BLOSSOMING THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS AND PERSISTENT STORMS
EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER...THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS IN THE
KJHW/KROC AND KART TAF SITES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING AND END
TO CONVECTION...HOWEVER PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FEED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO BRING LOWERING CIGS WITH IFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES...POSSIBLY LIFR IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
TOMORROW LOW CIGS WILL LINGER...THOUGH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL LIFT THESE CIGS TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR BY THE END
OF THE TAF CYCLE. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL END THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR AS SHOWERS DIMINISH.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND
WITH MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW
WAVES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND THE 4 FOOT MARK ON BOTH LAKES. WAVES
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME ON
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLE BRING SOME SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE
EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM
EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 231942
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN AS SOME STORMS WILL MOVE
REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVE COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT MORE
RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A NOREASTER FORMS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 147 PM EDT THURSDAY...SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION AND LINING UP WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN.
LAPS SOUNDING SHOW SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMNS...TALL SKINNY
CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1300 J/KG. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS RUNNING NEAR 4KM
AND PW VALUES NEAR 1.70". BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET ALL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF VERY
EFFICIENT WARM PROCESSES...1 TO 3" HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR TWO
SW-NE ORIENTATED AREAS, ONE IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ANOTHER
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND NE VT. THIS SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING ON
RADAR. SOME AREAS HAVE HAD 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY THIS WEEK SO
CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
EXIST THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WITH TONIGHT BEING FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR
REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND THE TRAINING OF CELLS OVER THE SAME AREA
WILL HELP KEEP THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING GOING TONIGHT. CAN
EASILY SEE 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL RATES AN HOUR THAT COULD EASILY
CAUSE PROBLEMS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS WILL SHIFT
FROM FLASH FLOODING EARLY FRIDAY TO POTENTIAL FLOODING ON RIVERS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WANT TO BECOME CUT OFF
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS OVER THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD AND
CONTINUE TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. SITUATION WILL HAVE TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE WE GET THROUGH THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW TRYING TO CUT OFF
OVER THE AREA...WE ARE NO LOOKING AT BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER VERMONT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WITH THE PRECIPITATION...LOOKING AT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS LOOKING AT THE
THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. THIS UNFORTUNATELY MEANS A COOLER AND WETTER
START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND MARATHONERS WILL WANT TO PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD COOLER AND
WETTER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. EVENTUALLY THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR COND THIS AFTNOON AS RW/TRW DEVELOP
OVER AREA. THRU 00Z FRI...VSBY 2-5SM IN -RW/FG W/ LOWEST VSBY IN
TRW. CEILINGS RANGING FROM BKN015-035 W/ LWR CEILINGS FOR CB/TRW
DEVELOPMENT. AFT 00Z FRI...-RW/FG WILL PERSIST WITH VSBY DOWN TO
3-6SM. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MAINLY OVC010-015 W/ SCT CLDS BLW
OVC010. WINDS SSW 10-20KTS THRU 00Z-02Z FRI THEN SHIFTING TO NW-
NE 5-15KTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF SITES
THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WL DEVELOP AS SFC LOW PRES
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLRING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXISTS FROM NOON TODAY
UNTIL 8AM FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. WATCH FOR MULTIPLE STORMS TO TRACK OVER
THE SAME AREA AND COMBINED WITH RAINFALL RATES AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR...FLASH FLOODING MAY RESULT. THE THREAT WILL
TRANSITION ON FRIDAY FROM FLASH FLOODING TO POTENTIAL RIVER
FLOODING AS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.MARINE...
A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT FOR THE
ENTIRE LAKE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
EXPECTING HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR WITH ANY POTENTIAL
STORMS...ALONG WITH STRONG WIND/WAVE OCCURRENCE IN VICINITY OF ANY
THUNDER.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ001>012-
016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ028>031-034-
035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...JN/TABER
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON
MARINE...JN
000
FXUS61 KBUF 231819
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
219 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT PUSHING HUMIDITY
AND THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD. HOWEVER LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NEARS. LIGHT RAIN WILL END THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE
REGION. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION WITH
STORMS FORMING ON THE EDGE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES
BETWEEN THE CLOUDS/ LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES/ AND OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. STORMS ARE ALSO FORMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE MORE INSTABILITY IS FOUND. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY STILL BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON.
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND WEST A COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO CROSS THE
LAKES. A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY OF SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM OVER LAKE ERIE
AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAS DEVELOPED
ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. A FEW OF
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRUSH BY THE NORTHERN NIAGARA
FRONTIER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACTIVITY
SOUTHWARD.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING
AN END TO THE THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD TROUGH STILL TO OUR
WEST...LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE THE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER OUR REGION. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE WHERE A
CHILLY WIND OVER THE LAKES AND STILL ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BRING PATCHY AREAS OF FOG. ALSO FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE LOWERING CLOUDS CIGS
MAY ALSO BRING REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL...INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REACH TOWARDS WESTERN NEW
YORK TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO MAINLY BE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THIS AXIS WHERE THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE FOUND. THIS TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVANCES
SOUTHEASTWARD...AND DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR PULLS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST...AND IS FORECAST TO
EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE IN HOW QUICKLY AND WHERE THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL ULTIMATELY DEVELOP. IN GENERAL...00Z RUNS OF THE
AMERICAN NAM/GFS/SREF MODELS ARE SLOWER IN CLOSING THE LOW OFF
WHICH WOULD KEEP IT WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR REGION. THE
EUROPEAN/UKMET/GGEM CLOSE THE LOW OFF MORE QUICKLY AND FURTHER TO
THE WEST. IF THE LATTER VERIFY...CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER
IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
POINT...FEEL AN ENSEMBLE OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS THE BEST
APPROACH UNTIL GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
EITHER WAY...EXPECT AREAS WEST OF ROCHESTER WILL REMAIN DRY...AND
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY SEE A
SHOWER...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE DURING THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON
SATURDAY AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY PUSH THE FREEZING MARK. LOWS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN AND EXIT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...LEAVING COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES.
THE COOLEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
INTO THE MID 30S AND LOWER 40S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST SOME FROST POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. IT IS LIKELY THAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME
POINT DURING THIS PERIOD.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE HIGH
SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
HIGHS REACHING NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK WITH
READINGS IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 18Z MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BLOSSOMING THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS AND PERSISTENT STORMS
EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER...THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS IN THE
KJHW/KROC AND KART TAF SITES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING AND END
TO CONVECTION...HOWEVER PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FEED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO BRING LOWERING CIGS WITH IFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES...POSSIBLY LIFR IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
TOMORROW LOW CIGS WILL LINGER...THOUGH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL LIFT THESE CIGS TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR BY THE END
OF THE TAF CYCLE. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL END THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR AS SHOWERS DIMINISH.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO
THE NORTHEAST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK THIS AFTERNOON. A BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM
EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...TJP
000
FXUS61 KOKX 231812
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
212 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THROUGH
TONIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN EXIT TO THE EAST BY THE END OF
THE DAY...AND REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. IT
THEN TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HRRR/RAP/NAM/SREF IDEA OF
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY BEING CONFINED TO THE NW 1/2 OF
THE CWA. HAVE MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS NW AND CHC POPS SE AS A RESULT.
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA...WITH 1000-2000
J/KG CURRENTLY OVER LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ...ALONG WITH 30 KT
OF BULK SHEAR SUPPORTING BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS OF 15-30. SO CAN
EXPECT ORGANIZED MULTI- CELLULAR CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL. MAIN THREAT IF ANY STORM BECOMES SEVERE IS GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL.
GIVEN APPROACHING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE AND STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER SE 1/2 OF CWA.
PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND POTENTIALLY TRAINING CELLS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE AT NIGHT
PROVIDING LIFT. FARTHER EAST...LIFT COMES COURTESY OF ADDITIONAL MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. ON A LARGER
SCALE...LIFT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK ALOFT
SHIFTS IN LATE AT NIGHT. SO SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS THE CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD LINGER AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BE TO OUR EAST
BY THE END OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS RIGHT
ALONG THE SYSTEM...AS WELL AS A CONTINUED THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION WITH
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY...TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON
FRI NE TO OVER NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME IS TO
CONTINUE TO TREND FORECAST TOWARDS THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BEING EXHIBITED
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THIS RESULTS IN A BREEZY...COOL AND WET
WEEKEND. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MODERATE FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BANDING ON
SATURDAY...WITH GRADUALLY TAPERING TO SHOWER ACTIVITY SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT INSTABILITY
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO MON. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND COULD BE A GOOD 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONABLE...WITH TEMPS LIKELY STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S WITH
COLD POOL ALOFT...CLOUDS AND RAIN. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY NOT
BE ANY BETTER BASED ON TRENDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONABLE. A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER DAY FOR THE NYC TERMINALS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA TODAY...MOVING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY.
VFR CIGS AND VIS AT KLGA AND KJFK WILL LOWER TO MVFR...ESPECIALLY
IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS.
FOG JUST OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND MAY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO KJFK. ALSO...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL JERSEY COAST AND IS MOVING NORTHWARD.
WILL IMPACT KJFK AND KLGA AROUND 18Z.
FOR THE CITY TERMINALS...SHOWERS WILL POP UP AT ANY TIME...SOME OF
WHICH WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS...SO WENT PREVAILING SHRA AND TEMPO
-TSRA. MORE STABLE AIR OVER EASTERN SECTIONS...AND THEREFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...AFTER 22Z.
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO IFR OR LESS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
INTRODUCE THUNDER TO THE TERMINALS EAST OF NYC IN A PROB30 GROUP
AFTER 00Z AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE TERMINALS THERE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT
TODAY. GUSTY WINDS TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AWAY FROM THE COAST MAY GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. FOG AND STRATUS
OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND COULD MOVE IN...BRINGING VSBY
AND CIGS TO IFR.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA...ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE. MVFR TO IFR IN
SHOWERS...FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER. N WINDS 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
WEB-CAMS SHOW VISIBILITIES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND NY HARBOR
GOING DOWN TO UNDER A MILE AT TIMES...SO HAVE ISSUED A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE WATERS S AND W OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH 4
PM FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG.
OTHERWISE...SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LINGERING
SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE
OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL DURING
PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL. NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE CONDITIONS SAT INTO SUN...AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE
WATERS ON FRI AND LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WINDS AND
SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SUN INTO MON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND INCH BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT AT
LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING IS PROBABLE. FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME REGARDING TIMING/COVERAGE/PLACEMENT
OF FLASH FLOODING IS TOO LOW TO GO WITH A WATCH FOR FLASH
FLOODING.
THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF FRI WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION. AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS MAY EXACERBATE ANY
ONGOING FLOODING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
000
FXUS61 KBGM 231800
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
200 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS THEN CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1010 AM UPDATE...
FCST IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED
AT THE PRESENT TIME. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING AN AREA OF LIGHT
SHWRS WORKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BGM FCST AREA ON THE HEELS OF
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW LIFTING NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY WITH
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A NOTABLE DRY SLOT NOW ENTERING
WESTERN NY. SO FAR CURRENT ACTIVITY HAS DISPLAYED NO CONVECTIVE
TRENDS AND AS A RESULT...HAVE BACKED OFF THUNDER MENTION UNTIL
EARLY AFTERNOON.
MAIN CONCERN GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON REMAINS POSSIBLE SEVERE WX
DEVELOPMENT AS LONG ADVERTISED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THAT SAID...FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY
WEAKLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH MAY BE
A RESULT OF CURRENT CLOUD COVER ALOFT. THAT SAID...THE POTENTIAL
DOES EXIST FOR MODEL UNDERESTIMATION OF THIS AFTERNOON/S
INSTABILITY AS PERIODIC BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATER TODAY. THAT SAID...RUC AND LOCAL WRF BUFKIT AND AWIPS
PLAN VIEW FCSTS SHOW NEARLY 800 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF IF SOME CLEARING DOES MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THE OTHER THING THAT TODAY/S SETUP HAS GOING FOR IT IS
DECENT DYNAMICS ALOFT AS UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY AS A JETSTREAK STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION IN
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. CONSIDERING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS ARE
ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE ARRIVING COLD FRONT...MAIN
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE LINEAR IN FASHION WITH STRONG WINDS
LIKELY BEING THE BIGGEST THREATS. OBVIOUSLY A LOT TO MONITOR AND
UPDATES WILL BE MADE AS NEEDED. CURRENT THINKING IS TODAY/S
ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT THE
EARLIEST. REMAINDER OF NEAR TERM FCST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
545 AM UPDATE... A BAND OF -SHRA/ISOLD TSRA CONTS TO MARCH ACRS
THE CWA ATTM...LIKELY ASSOCD WITH AN UPR-LVL WAVE. WE EXPECT SHWRS
TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE RGN THROUGH 14-15Z...FOLLOWED BY A LULL IN
PCPN FOR MOST OF THIS AFTN.
ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMT OF CLOUD DEBRIS SHOULD BE RESIDENT TDY OVER
THE NERN STATES...AHD OF THE SFC COLD FRNT...A FEW BRKS OF SUN ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURG THE EARLY AND MID-AFTN HRS. THIS WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE ENUF HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO FUEL ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE DAY...AND SPCLY THIS EVE...AS THE FRNT
ITSELF APPRCHS. THE LATEST RAP/WRF/GFS CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE THIS AFTN...ALG WITH IMPROVING
DEEP-LYRD SHEAR...AND SOME HGT FALLS ALOFT. THUS...ORGANIZED
LINEAR FEATURES SEEM PLAUSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
555 AM UPDATE... OUR MODEL SUITE CONTS TO TREND SLOWER/LESS
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL TROUGH TO IMPACT THE RGN
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
POST-FRNTL SHWRS HAVE BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN OUR FCST FOR
FRI...ALG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AND NOTHING HAS CHANGED IN THIS
REGARD. IN FACT...READINGS FRI LIKELY WILL HOLD ABT STEADY IN THE
LWR-MID 50S...AND MAY EVEN EDGE DOWNWARD A BIT AS THE DAY GOES ON.
WE`VE NUDGED POPS UPWARD A BIT FOR FRI NGT/SAT...MAINLY IN OUR ERN
ZNS...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
MOISTURE/FORCED LIFT...AS IT NOW APPEARS THAT A CLOSER UPR-LVL
SYSTEM WILL LINGER ALG THE COAST AT LEAST INTO SAT.
ALTHOUGH DRYING/CLEARING SKIES NOW LOOKS SLOWER TO OCCUR...WE
STILL ANTICIPATE THAT SOME CLEARING WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR WRN ZNS
BY SAT/SAT EVE. THUS...PRIND ARE THAT THE BEST SHOT FOR
FROST/FREEZE CONDS WILL BE IN THE WRN HALF OF THE FA SAT NGT/EARLY
SUN AM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NWRD OUT OF NEW ENG WHILE A NLY FLOW OF COLD
AIR CONTS OVER THE FCST AREA. STRONG SUN ANGLE HELPS TOP MODIFY
THE AIR MASS BUT IT WILL STILL BE COOLER THAN NRML FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES LATE
TUE INTO WED AS THE HI RETREATES AND WRM FNT OVER THE MIDWEST
PUSHES NE. MUCH WRMR AIR RETURNS FOR WED AND WITH THE FNT STILL
OVER NRN NY AND WRN NEW ENG...PSBLTY OF SOME TRWS THRU THE END OF
THE PD.
MODEL GUID IN LINE WITH HPC GUID WHICH WAS FOLLOWED FOR THIS FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR LOW AND SFC COLD FNT CONTS TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST TODAY. SCT
CONV IS PSBL AHD OF THE FNT THRU THE AFTN PD FLWD BY NARROW LINE
ARND THE TIME OF FNTL PASSAGE. GNRL VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE
OF ANY TRWS...WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY DURING THE STORMS.
BHD THE FNT...VERY STRONG CAA WILL RESULT IN LWRD CIGS AND VSBYS
IN NUMEROUS SHWRS. XPCT LTL IMPRVMT UNTIL LATE IN THE PD WHEN SOME
MIXING WILL HELP RAISE CIGS AND VSBY BEFORE THE END OF THE PD. SW
WINDS WILL BE COMMON AHD OF THE FNT...WITH A FEW GUSTS ESP INVOF
TRWS. BHD THE COLD FNT NWLY WINDS XPCTD.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...PSBL LINGERING RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.
SUN - TUE...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...CMG/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM
000
FXUS61 KBTV 231755
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
155 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN AS SOME STORMS WILL MOVE
REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVE COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT MORE
RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A NOREASTER FORMS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 147 PM EDT THURSDAY...SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION AND LINING UP WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN.
LAPS SOUNDING SHOW SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMNS...TALL SKINNY
CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1300 J/KG. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS RUNNING NEAR 4KM
AND PW VALUES NEAR 1.70". BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET ALL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF VERY
EFFICIENT WARM PROCESSES...1 TO 3" HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR TWO
SW-NE ORIENTATED AREAS, ONE IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ANOTHER
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND NE VT. THIS SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING ON
RADAR. SOME AREAS HAVE HAD 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY THIS WEEK SO
CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
EXIST THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WITH TONIGHT BEING FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR
REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND THE TRAINING OF CELLS OVER THE SAME AREA
WILL HELP KEEP THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING GOING TONIGHT. CAN
EASILY SEE 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL RATES AN HOUR THAT COULD EASILY
CAUSE PROBLEMS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS WILL SHIFT
FROM FLASH FLOODING EARLY FRIDAY TO POTENTIAL FLOODING ON RIVERS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WANT TO BECOME CUT OFF
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS OVER THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD AND
CONTINUE TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. SITUATION WILL HAVE TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE WE GET THROUGH THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW TRYING TO CUT OFF
OVER THE AREA...WE ARE NO LOOKING AT BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER VERMONT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WITH THE PRECIPITATION...LOOKING AT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS LOOKING AT THE
THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. THIS UNFORTUNATELY MEANS A COOLER AND WETTER
START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND MARATHONERS WILL WANT TO PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD COOLER AND
WETTER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. EVENTUALLY THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR COND THIS AFTNOON AS RW/TRW DEVELOP
OVER AREA. THRU 00Z FRI...VSBY 2-5SM IN -RW/FG W/ LOWEST VSBY IN
TRW. CEILINGS RANGING FROM BKN015-035 W/ LWR CEILINGS FOR CB/TRW
DEVELOPMENT. AFT 00Z FRI...-RW/FG WILL PERSIST WITH VSBY DOWN TO
3-6SM. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MAINLY OVC010-015 W/ SCT CLDS BLW
OVC010. WINDS SSW 10-20KTS THRU 00Z-02Z FRI THEN SHIFTING TO NW-
NE 5-15KTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF SITES
THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WL DEVELOP AS SFC LOW PRES
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLRING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXISTS FROM NOON TODAY
UNTIL 8AM FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. WATCH FOR MULTIPLE STORMS TO TRACK OVER
THE SAME AREA AND COMBINED WITH RAINFALL RATES AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR...FLASH FLOODING MAY RESULT. THE THREAT WILL
TRANSITION ON FRIDAY FROM FLASH FLOODING TO POTENTIAL RIVER
FLOODING AS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ001>012-
016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ028>031-034-
035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...JN/TABER
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON
000
FXUS61 KBTV 231747
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
147 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN AS SOME STORMS WILL MOVE
REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVE COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT MORE
RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A NOREASTER FORMS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 147 PM EDT THURSDAY...SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION AND LINING UP WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN.
LAPS SOUNDING SHOW SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMNS...TALL SKINNY
CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1300 J/KG. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS RUNNING NEAR 4KM
AND PW VALUES NEAR 1.70". BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET ALL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF VERY
EFFICIENT WARM PROCESSES...1 TO 3" HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR TWO
SW-NE ORIENTATED AREAS, ONE IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ANOTHER
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND NE VT. THIS SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING ON
RADAR. SOME AREAS HAVE HAD 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY THIS WEEK SO
CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
EXIST THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WITH TONIGHT BEING FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR
REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND THE TRAINING OF CELLS OVER THE SAME AREA
WILL HELP KEEP THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING GOING TONIGHT. CAN
EASILY SEE 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL RATES AN HOUR THAT COULD EASILY
CAUSE PROBLEMS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS WILL SHIFT
FROM FLASH FLOODING EARLY FRIDAY TO POTENTIAL FLOODING ON RIVERS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WANT TO BECOME CUT OFF
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS OVER THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD AND
CONTINUE TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. SITUATION WILL HAVE TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE WE GET THROUGH THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW TRYING TO CUT OFF
OVER THE AREA...WE ARE NO LOOKING AT BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER VERMONT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WITH THE PRECIPITATION...LOOKING AT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS LOOKING AT THE
THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. THIS UNFORTUNATELY MEANS A COOLER AND WETTER
START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND MARATHONERS WILL WANT TO PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD COOLER AND
WETTER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. EVENTUALLY THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL DEVELOP
ACRS OUR TAF SITES TODAY...WITH MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING FROM SW TO NE ACRS WESTERN/NORTHERN NY ATTM...WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...LOW STRATUS WITH IFR AT MPV WL
DISSIPATE BTWN 12Z-14Z TODAY. CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WL INCREASE
AFT 15Z...WITH BEST CHC OF IFR CONDITIONS BTWN 17Z-21Z...WHEN
INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WL CONT INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING WITH
AREAS OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE
LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/PBG WITH MVFR AT MSS/RUT/BTV. ALSO...BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNTS
TODAY...WL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF SITES
THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WL DEVELOP AS SFC LOW PRES
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLRING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXISTS FROM NOON TODAY
UNTIL 8AM FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. WATCH FOR MULTIPLE STORMS TO TRACK OVER
THE SAME AREA AND COMBINED WITH RAINFALL RATES AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR...FLASH FLOODING MAY RESULT. THE THREAT WILL
TRANSITION ON FRIDAY FROM FLASH FLOODING TO POTENTIAL RIVER
FLOODING AS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ001>012-
016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ028>031-034-
035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KALY 231740
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AND STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS
FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER
OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...A COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CNTRL NY AND
PA. THIS PREFRONTAL TROUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR HAS PRODUCED SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS AND W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND OTHER
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE. THE THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR TO BE TRAINING...AND A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT...AND SE DUTCHESS COUNTY. A 30-35 KT H850
LLJ AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION HAVE CAUSED THE
BAND OF CONVECTION. POPS WERE ISSUED FOR CATEGORICAL VALUES. MOST
OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO
BOUNDARIES WITH JUST SOME SCT SHOWERS. ANOTHER BAND IS STARTING TO
REACH THE WRN DACKS...SO HIGHER POPS HAVE PLACED HERE.
THE SATELLITE PICTURE IS CLUTTERED WITH CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.
DEWPTS REMAIN IN THE U50S TO M60S...SO ANY HOLES IN THE CLOUD
COVER MAY ALLOW SBCAPES VALUES OF 400-800 J/KG TO DEVELOP. THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO LOOK POOR AT THIS TIME...BUT THE
BETTER UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE IN THE LATE PM AND EVENING
/OUR FORECAST AREA GETS IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
STREAK/...AND THE DEEP SHEAR STRENGTHENS TO 40-50 KTS...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD BTWN 18Z- 00Z. THE AMOUNT OF
HEATING AND SFC DESTABILIZATION REMAINS THE QUESTION FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS PM. NO ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE ZONES AND GRIDS YET. SOME MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO LINES AND
BANDS LOOK POSSIBLE BASED ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRAPHS.
THE LOW TO MODEST INSTABILITY AMOUNTS SHOULD LIMIT TALL UPDRAFTS.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. ZONAL FFG VALUES IN THE 1/3/6 HR TIME FRAME HAVE LOWERED TO
1-2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND SRN VT DUE TO
THE HEAVY RAINS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES COULD PRODUCE SOME
FLASH FLOODING IN A FEW SPOTS. AT THIS TIME...MONITORING FOR
EXPANSION BASED ON THE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SOUTH.
TEMPS WERE LOWERED ABOUT A CATEGORY TO THE M60S TO M70S OVER THE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO JUST AN AREAS OF STEADY
RAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL COOLING GRADUALLY SPREADS
EAST...AND THE STRENGTHENING UPPER FEATURE BEGINS TO CUT OFF AND
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOMORROW INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO L60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND THAT BEGAN APPEARING IN THE MODEL SUITE TWO DAYS AGO...IS
NOW CONSENSUS FOR THE WEEKEND. 00 UTC GFS/NAM/ECMWF HAVE CDFNT
STALLING ALONG I-95 CORRIDOR BY FRI MORNING. SHARP 500HPA TROF FM
QB TO APPALACHIANS MOVING EAST...AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DIVE
SOUTHWARD INTO IT AND CUT IT OFF.
DURING FRI IT CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLC STATES...COASTAL
CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OFF LONG ISLAND...AND THE SLOWLY DEEPENING SFC
LOW AND THE 500HPA CUT OFF BCMG VERTICAL OFF S NEW ENG COAST
SAT...THEN DRIFT SLOWLY N SUNDAY INTO GULF OF MAINE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS IS GOING TO FEEL MORE LIKE A LATE OCTOBER
WEEKEND IN THE NORTHEAST. DURING FRIDAY -SHRA WILL TRANSITION TO
PERIODS OF RAIN IN ANNA TYPE FRONT BTWN SFC FRONT AND 500HPA AXIS.
AT SAME TIME GRADIENT BETWEEN 1031MB HIGH OVER MIDWEST...AND
DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF LONG ISLAND WILL RESULT IN A 14MB WIND
GRADIENT ACROSS NYS FRI & SAT. N WINDS WILL INCR TO 10-20 MPH AND
RESULT WILL BE A RAINY RAW FRI AND SAT.
GFS QPF OF 1-2.5 INCHES...ECMWF 0.75 TO 1.0 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SAT NT.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL JUST HOLD STEADY NEAR
MORNING LOWS...BEFORE FALLING DURING FRI AFTN IN STRONG CAA. THEY
WILL FALL FURTHER FRI NT INTO THE 40S WITH 30S IN WESTERN
PERIPHERY. SAT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S WITH CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF RAIN. MAX MIN TEMPS IN GUIDANCE ARE PROBABLY NOT
MUCH USE...AS ALOT OF NON-DIURNAL EFFECTS GOING ON FRI INTO SAT.
WILL USE 3 HOURLIES AND LET MAX/MINS FALL OUT.
OF NOTE IS THAT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN/CLOUDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE A VERY SHARP TRANSITION...SOMEWHERE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF FCA. PCPN COULD BE SPOTTY OR NON-EXISTENT ALONG W
EDGE OF FCA...AND THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF THINNING CLOUDS WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NR FREEZING DURING MORNINGS.
SUN THE VERTICAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT THROUGH THE GULF
OF MAINE...INTO THE MARITIMES SUN NT. THE GFS HAS CLOUDS AND -SHRA
DIM SUNDAY WITH INCRG SUN ALONG W PRTNS OF FCA. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT
CLOUDY AND WET INTO SUN EVENING. THE O6UTC NAM/GFS ARE A TAD MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAS CLOUDS AND RAIN ONLY FM HUD
VLY EAST SAT...AND THE SYSTEM CLEARLY EXITING REGION SAT NT.
FOR NOW FCST REFLECTS 00UTC MODEL SUITE TIMING...WITH SKIES FINALLY
CLEARING SUN NT ACROSS FCA AS 500HPA RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS
AND SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO E GRTLKS. BUT IF THE EMERGING TREND
CONTINUES ON LATER RUNS...CONDITIONS MIGHT NOTICEABLE IMPROVE
ACROSS FCA FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A SOGGY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE CUTOFF AND SFC SYSTEM DEPART
AS RIDGE AT 500HPA BUILDS INTO GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH BUILDS FROM
GRTLKS TO CAROLINAS MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SHIFT EAST AS LARGE
500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVER E USA AND SFC HIGH SETTLES OFF THE EAST
COAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NR NORMAL MONDAY..AND BUILD UPWARD
INTO THE WEEK. FCA IN WAA REGIME THROUGHOUT. THE GFS BRINGS A
WMFNT AND CHC -SHRA/TSTMS LATE TUES AND WED...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS IT
DRY INTO THU. ONLY 6 MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ARE IN LINE WITH THE
OPERATIONAL RUN PCPN WED...THE REST OF THEIR PLUMES ARE FLAT
LINED. WPC HOLDS PCPN OFF TILL END OF EFP ON THUR. SO FOR NOW WILL
HAVE A FAIR WARM EFP...WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND TO ABV
NORMAL TEMPS. WILL POPULATE WITH WPC FROM MIDNIGHT SHIFT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT SWITCHES SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND TO NORTHERLY SOMETIME
AROUND DAYBREAK UPON ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE AIRPORTS. LOW PRESSURE
RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. NO SHEAR ISSUES.
OUTLOOK...
FRI PM-SAT...MAINLY VFR. -SHRA LIKELY.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR...CHC -SHRA.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN...MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND ONLY 60-80 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...TURNING NORTH
FRIDAY AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH. .
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ECMWF AND GFS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL INTO CWA
INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE
2.50 TO 5.0 INCHES OF RAIN IN CWA INTO SUNDAY. GEFS SHOW AVERAGE
OF 2.0 INCHES THROUGH WEEKEND WITH 8 MEMBERS PUSHING IN EXCESS OF
3.5 INCHES.
FIRST CHALLENGE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME WITH TODAYS SLOWLY MOVING
FRONT. EASTERN CWA AND CENTRAL CWA HAVE SEEN HEAVIEST RAIN OVER
THE LAST TWO DAYS AND WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE REGION WHERE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IS AT HIGHEST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...NONE.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KALY 231734
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AND STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS
FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER
OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...A COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CNTRL NY AND
PA. THIS PREFRONTAL TROUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR HAS PRODUCED SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS AND W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND OTHER
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE. THE THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR TO BE TRAINING...AND A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT...AND SE DUTCHESS COUNTY. A 30-35 KT H850
LLJ AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION HAVE CAUSED THE
BAND OF CONVECTION. POPS WERE ISSUED FOR CATEGORICAL VALUES. MOST
OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO
BOUNDARIES WITH JUST SOME SCT SHOWERS. ANOTHER BAND IS STARTING TO
REACH THE WRN DACKS...SO HIGHER POPS HAVE PLACED HERE.
THE SATELLITE PICTURE IS CLUTTERED WITH CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.
DEWPTS REMAIN IN THE U50S TO M60S...SO ANY HOLES IN THE CLOUD
COVER MAY ALLOW SBCAPES VALUES OF 400-800 J/KG TO DEVELOP. THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO LOOK POOR AT THIS TIME...BUT THE
BETTER UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE IN THE LATE PM AND EVENING
/OUR FORECAST AREA GETS IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
STREAK/...AND THE DEEP SHEAR STRENGTHENS TO 40-50 KTS...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD BTWN 18Z- 00Z. THE AMOUNT OF
HEATING AND SFC DESTABILIZATION REMAINS THE QUESTION FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS PM. NO ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE ZONES AND GRIDS YET. SOME MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO LINES AND
BANDS LOOK POSSIBLE BASED ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRAPHS.
THE LOW TO MODEST INSTABILITY AMOUNTS SHOULD LIMIT TALL UPDRAFTS.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. ZONAL FFG VALUES IN THE 1/3/6 HR TIME FRAME HAVE LOWERED TO
1-2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND SRN VT DUE TO
THE HEAVY RAINS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES COULD PRODUCE SOME
FLASH FLOODING IN A FEW SPOTS. AT THIS TIME...MONITORING FOR
EXPANSION BASED ON THE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SOUTH.
TEMPS WERE LOWERED ABOUT A CATEGORY TO THE M60S TO M70S OVER THE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO JUST AN AREAS OF STEADY
RAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL COOLING GRADUALLY SPREADS
EAST...AND THE STRENGTHENING UPPER FEATURE BEGINS TO CUT OFF AND
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOMORROW INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO L60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND THAT BEGAN APPEARING IN THE MODEL SUITE TWO DAYS AGO...IS
NOW CONSENSUS FOR THE WEEKEND. 00 UTC GFS/NAM/ECMWF HAVE CDFNT
STALLING ALONG I-95 CORRIDOR BY FRI MORNING. SHARP 500HPA TROF FM
QB TO APPALACHIANS MOVING EAST...AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DIVE
SOUTHWARD INTO IT AND CUT IT OFF.
DURING FRI IT CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLC STATES...COASTAL
CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OFF LONG ISLAND...AND THE SLOWLY DEEPENING SFC
LOW AND THE 500HPA CUT OFF BCMG VERTICAL OFF S NEW ENG COAST
SAT...THEN DRIFT SLOWLY N SUNDAY INTO GULF OF MAINE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS IS GOING TO FEEL MORE LIKE A LATE OCTOBER
WEEKEND IN THE NORTHEAST. DURING FRIDAY -SHRA WILL TRANSITION TO
PERIODS OF RAIN IN ANNA TYPE FRONT BTWN SFC FRONT AND 500HPA AXIS.
AT SAME TIME GRADIENT BETWEEN 1031MB HIGH OVER MIDWEST...AND
DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF LONG ISLAND WILL RESULT IN A 14MB WIND
GRADIENT ACROSS NYS FRI & SAT. N WINDS WILL INCR TO 10-20 MPH AND
RESULT WILL BE A RAINY RAW FRI AND SAT.
GFS QPF OF 1-2.5 INCHES...ECMWF 0.75 TO 1.0 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SAT NT.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL JUST HOLD STEADY NEAR
MORNING LOWS...BEFORE FALLING DURING FRI AFTN IN STRONG CAA. THEY
WILL FALL FURTHER FRI NT INTO THE 40S WITH 30S IN WESTERN
PERIPHERY. SAT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S WITH CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF RAIN. MAX MIN TEMPS IN GUIDANCE ARE PROBABLY NOT
MUCH USE...AS ALOT OF NON-DIURNAL EFFECTS GOING ON FRI INTO SAT.
WILL USE 3 HOURLIES AND LET MAX/MINS FALL OUT.
OF NOTE IS THAT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN/CLOUDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE A VERY SHARP TRANSITION...SOMEWHERE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF FCA. PCPN COULD BE SPOTTY OR NON-EXISTENT ALONG W
EDGE OF FCA...AND THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF THINNING CLOUDS WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NR FREEZING DURING MORNINGS.
SUN THE VERTICAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT THROUGH THE GULF
OF MAINE...INTO THE MARITIMES SUN NT. THE GFS HAS CLOUDS AND -SHRA
DIM SUNDAY WITH INCRG SUN ALONG W PRTNS OF FCA. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT
CLOUDY AND WET INTO SUN EVENING. THE O6UTC NAM/GFS ARE A TAD MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAS CLOUDS AND RAIN ONLY FM HUD
VLY EAST SAT...AND THE SYSTEM CLEARLY EXITING REGION SAT NT.
FOR NOW FCST REFLECTS 00UTC MODEL SUITE TIMING...WITH SKIES FINALLY
CLEARING SUN NT ACROSS FCA AS 500HPA RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS
AND SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO E GRTLKS. BUT IF THE EMERGING TREND
CONTINUES ON LATER RUNS...CONDITIONS MIGHT NOTICEABLE IMPROVE
ACROSS FCA FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A SOGGY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE CUTOFF AND SFC SYSTEM DEPART
AS RIDGE AT 500HPA BUILDS INTO GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH BUILDS FROM
GRTLKS TO CAROLINAS MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SHIFT EAST AS LARGE
500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVER E USA AND SFC HIGH SETTLES OFF THE EAST
COAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NR NORMAL MONDAY..AND BUILD UPWARD
INTO THE WEEK. FCA IN WAA REGIME THROUGHOUT. THE GFS BRINGS A
WMFNT AND CHC -SHRA/TSTMS LATE TUES AND WED...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS IT
DRY INTO THU. ONLY 6 MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ARE IN LINE WITH THE
OPERATIONAL RUN PCPN WED...THE REST OF THEIR PLUMES ARE FLAT
LINED. WPC HOLDS PCPN OFF TILL END OF EFP ON THUR. SO FOR NOW WILL
HAVE A FAIR WARM EFP...WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND TO ABV
NORMAL TEMPS. WILL POPULATE WITH WPC FROM MIDNIGHT SHIFT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LINGERING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT KPOU AND PSF
THIS MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD LAST TO AROUND
16Z...WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AND APPROACH
THE TAF SITES. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS KGFL WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL BTWN 12Z-14Z.
SINCE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WELL WEST...AND
THE TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT AND TRACKING OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SO
UNCERTAIN...JUST PUTTING GENERIC VCTS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 16Z AND
22Z...AS MORE SPECIFIC TIMING WILL BE PROVIDED IN LATER TAF
ISSUANCES. STEADIER RAIN AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE AROUND THE
AIRPORTS BY 22Z-24Z...SO LOWERED CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES TO
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS FOR THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. AGAIN...UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EVOLVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO JUST INDICATING
SHOWERS. LATER TAF ISSUANCES WILL ADDRESS THE THUNDERSTORM TIMING.
WINDS ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 15 KT EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS SHOULD TREND TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-MON...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN...MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND ONLY 60-80 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...TURNING NORTH
FRIDAY AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH. .
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ECMWF AND GFS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL INTO CWA
INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE
2.50 TO 5.0 INCHES OF RAIN IN CWA INTO SUNDAY. GEFS SHOW AVERAGE
OF 2.0 INCHES THROUGH WEEKEND WITH 8 MEMBERS PUSHING IN EXCESS OF
3.5 INCHES.
FIRST CHALLENGE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME WITH TODAYS SLOWLY MOVING
FRONT. EASTERN CWA AND CENTRAL CWA HAVE SEEN HEAVIEST RAIN OVER
THE LAST TWO DAYS AND WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE REGION WHERE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IS AT HIGHEST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...NONE.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KALY 231727
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AND STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS
FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER
OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.
&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...A COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL NY AND
PA. THIS PREFRONTAL TROUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR HAS PRODUCED SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS AND W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND OTHER
SHOWERS HAVE BLOSSOMED OVER THE LOWER TO MID HUDSON VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE. POPS HAVE BEEN READJUSTED TO
LIKELY VALUES OVER THE SRN TIER.
THE SATELLITE PICTURE IS CLUTTERED WITH CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. DEWPTS REMAIN IN THE
U50S TO M60S...SO ANY HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY ALLOW SBCAPES
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG TO DEVELOP. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK
POOR AT THIS TIME...BUT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE
IN THE LATE PM AND EVENING /OUR FORECAST AREA GETS IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK/...AND THE DEEP SHEAR STRENGTHENS TO
40-50 KTS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD BTWN 18Z-
00Z. THE AMOUNT OF HEATING AND SFC DESTABILIZATION REMAINS THE
QUESTION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES AND GRIDS YET. SOME MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO
LINES AND BANDS LOOK POSSIBLE BASED ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
HODOGRAPHS.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. ZONAL FFG VALUES IN THE 1/3/6 HR TIME FRAME HAVE LOWERED TO
1-2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND SRN VT DUE TO
THE HEAVY RAINS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES COULD PRODUCE SOME
FLASH FLOODING IN A FEW SPOTS.
TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH MAXES IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO JUST AN AREAS OF STEADY
RAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL COOLING GRADUALLY SPREADS
EAST...AND THE STRENGTHENING UPPER FEATURE BEGINS TO CUT OFF AND
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOMORROW INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND THAT BEGAN APPEARING IN THE MODEL SUITE TWO DAYS AGO...IS
NOW CONSENSUS FOR THE WEEKEND. 00 UTC GFS/NAM/ECMWF HAVE CDFNT
STALLING ALONG I-95 CORRIDOR BY FRI MORNING. SHARP 500HPA TROF FM
QB TO APPALACHIANS MOVING EAST...AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DIVE
SOUTHWARD INTO IT AND CUT IT OFF.
DURING FRI IT CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLC STATES...COASTAL
CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OFF LONG ISLAND...AND THE SLOWLY DEEPENING SFC
LOW AND THE 500HPA CUT OFF BCMG VERTICAL OFF S NEW ENG COAST
SAT...THEN DRIFT SLOWLY N SUNDAY INTO GULF OF MAINE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS IS GOING TO FEEL MORE LIKE A LATE OCTOBER
WEEKEND IN THE NORTHEAST. DURING FRIDAY -SHRA WILL TRANSITION TO
PERIODS OF RAIN IN ANNA TYPE FRONT BTWN SFC FRONT AND 500HPA AXIS.
AT SAME TIME GRADIENT BETWEEN 1031MB HIGH OVER MIDWEST...AND
DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF LONG ISLAND WILL RESULT IN A 14MB WIND
GRADIENT ACROSS NYS FRI & SAT. N WINDS WILL INCR TO 10-20 MPH AND
RESULT WILL BE A RAINY RAW FRI AND SAT.
GFS QPF OF 1-2.5 INCHES...ECMWF 0.75 TO 1.0 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SAT NT.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL JUST HOLD STEADY NEAR
MORNING LOWS...BEFORE FALLING DURING FRI AFTN IN STRONG CAA. THEY
WILL FALL FURTHER FRI NT INTO THE 40S WITH 30S IN WESTERN
PERIPHERY. SAT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S WITH CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF RAIN. MAX MIN TEMPS IN GUIDANCE ARE PROBABLY NOT
MUCH USE...AS ALOT OF NON-DIURNAL EFFECTS GOING ON FRI INTO SAT.
WILL USE 3 HOURLIES AND LET MAX/MINS FALL OUT.
OF NOTE IS THAT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN/CLOUDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE A VERY SHARP TRANSITION...SOMEWHERE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF FCA. PCPN COULD BE SPOTTY OR NON-EXISTENT ALONG W
EDGE OF FCA...AND THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF THINNING CLOUDS WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NR FREEZING DURING MORNINGS.
SUN THE VERTICAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT THROUGH THE GULF
OF MAINE...INTO THE MARITIMES SUN NT. THE GFS HAS CLOUDS AND -SHRA
DIM SUNDAY WITH INCRG SUN ALONG W PRTNS OF FCA. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT
CLOUDY AND WET INTO SUN EVENING. THE O6UTC NAM/GFS ARE A TAD MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAS CLOUDS AND RAIN ONLY FM HUD
VLY EAST SAT...AND THE SYSTEM CLEARLY EXITING REGION SAT NT.
FOR NOW FCST REFLECTS 00UTC MODEL SUITE TIMING...WITH SKIES FINALLY
CLEARING SUN NT ACROSS FCA AS 500HPA RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS
AND SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO E GRTLKS. BUT IF THE EMERGING TREND
CONTINUES ON LATER RUNS...CONDITIONS MIGHT NOTICEABLE IMPROVE
ACROSS FCA FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A SOGGY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE CUTOFF AND SFC SYSTEM DEPART
AS RIDGE AT 500HPA BUILDS INTO GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH BUILDS FROM
GRTLKS TO CAROLINAS MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SHIFT EAST AS LARGE
500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVER E USA AND SFC HIGH SETTLES OFF THE EAST
COAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NR NORMAL MONDAY..AND BUILD UPWARD
INTO THE WEEK. FCA IN WAA REGIME THROUGHOUT. THE GFS BRINGS A
WMFNT AND CHC -SHRA/TSTMS LATE TUES AND WED...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS IT
DRY INTO THU. ONLY 6 MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ARE IN LINE WITH THE
OPERATIONAL RUN PCPN WED...THE REST OF THEIR PLUMES ARE FLAT
LINED. WPC HOLDS PCPN OFF TILL END OF EFP ON THUR. SO FOR NOW WILL
HAVE A FAIR WARM EFP...WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND TO ABV
NORMAL TEMPS. WILL POPULATE WITH WPC FROM MIDNIGHT SHIFT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT SWITCHES SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND TO NORTHERLY SOMETIME
AROUND DAYBREAK UPON ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE AIRPORTS. LOW PRESSURE
RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. NO SHEAR ISSUES.
OUTLOOK...
FRI PM-SAT...MAINLY VFR. -SHRA LIKELY.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR...CHC -SHRA.
SUN NGT-MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN...MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND ONLY 60-80 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...TURNING NORTH
FRIDAY AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH. .
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ECMWF AND GFS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL INTO CWA
INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE
2.50 TO 5.0 INCHES OF RAIN IN CWA INTO SUNDAY. GEFS SHOW AVERAGE
OF 2.0 INCHES THROUGH WEEKEND WITH 8 MEMBERS PUSHING IN EXCESS OF
3.5 INCHES.
FIRST CHALLENGE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME WITH TODAYS SLOWLY MOVING
FRONT. EASTERN CWA AND CENTRAL CWA HAVE SEEN HEAVIEST RAIN OVER
THE LAST TWO DAYS AND WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE REGION WHERE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IS AT HIGHEST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...NONE.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KOKX 231652
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1252 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THROUGH
TONIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN EXIT TO THE EAST BY THE END OF
THE DAY...AND REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. IT
THEN TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HRRR/RAP/NAM/SREF IDEA OF
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY BEING CONFINED TO THE NW 1/2 OF
THE CWA. HAVE MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS NW AND CHC POPS SE AS A RESULT.
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA...WITH 1000-2000
J/KG CURRENTLY OVER LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ...ALONG WITH 30 KT
OF BULK SHEAR SUPPORTING BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS OF 15-30. SO CAN
EXPECT ORGANIZED MULTI- CELLULAR CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL. MAIN THREAT IF ANY STORM BECOMES SEVERE IS GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL.
GIVEN APPROACHING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE AND STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER SE 1/2 OF CWA.
PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND POTENTIALLY TRAINING CELLS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE AT NIGHT
PROVIDING LIFT. FARTHER EAST...LIFT COMES COURTESY OF ADDITIONAL MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. ON A LARGER
SCALE...LIFT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK ALOFT
SHIFTS IN LATE AT NIGHT. SO SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS THE CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD LINGER AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BE TO OUR EAST
BY THE END OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS RIGHT
ALONG THE SYSTEM...AS WELL AS A CONTINUED THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION WITH
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY...TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON
FRI NE TO OVER NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME IS TO
CONTINUE TO TREND FORECAST TOWARDS THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BEING EXHIBITED
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THIS RESULTS IN A BREEZY...COOL AND WET
WEEKEND. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MODERATE FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BANDING ON
SATURDAY...WITH GRADUALLY TAPERING TO SHOWER ACTIVITY SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT INSTABILITY
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO MON. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND COULD BE A GOOD 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONABLE...WITH TEMPS LIKELY STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S WITH
COLD POOL ALOFT...CLOUDS AND RAIN. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY NOT
BE ANY BETTER BASED ON TRENDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONABLE. A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN
FORECAST MON-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER DAY FOR THE NYC TERMINALS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR OVER KJFK AND KLGA...BUT DO EXPECT THEM TO
DROP TO MVFR OVER BY ABOUT 16Z AS KEWR HAS ALREADY FALLEN BACK TO
MVFR.
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER NORTHEAST NJ. IF THEY HOLD
TOGETHER...SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE CITY TERMINALS BY 15Z-16Z.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE AFTER 19Z. FOR THE NYC
TERMINALS AS WELL AS KSWF AND KHPN...WILL CARRY THUNDER IN A
PREVAILING GROUP STARTING AT 19Z WHICH WILL GO UNTIL 01Z. WHILE I
DO NOT THINK THUNDER WILL OCCUR AT THE TERMINAL THE ENTIRE
TIME...I DO THINK CONVECTION COULD OCCUR AT LEAST HALF OF THE
TIME...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT TERMINAL IMPACTS.
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO IFR OR LESS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
INTRODUCE THUNDER TO THE TERMINALS EAST OF NYC IN A PROB30 GROUP
AFTER 00Z AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE TERMINALS THERE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT
TODAY. WINDS AWAY FROM THE COAST MAY GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA...ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE. MVFR TO IFR IN
SHOWERS...FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER. N WINDS 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
WEB-CAMS SHOW VISIBILITIES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND NY HARBOR
GOING DOWN TO UNDER A MILE AT TIMES...SO HAVE ISSUED A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE WATERS S AND W OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH 4
PM FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG.
OTHERWISE...SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LINGERING
SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE
OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL DURING
PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL. NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE CONDITIONS SAT INTO SUN...AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE
WATERS ON FRI AND LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WINDS AND
SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SUN INTO MON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND INCH BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT AT
LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING IS PROBABLE. FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME REGARDING TIMING/COVERAGE/PLACEMENT
OF FLASH FLOODING IS TOO LOW TO GO WITH A WATCH FOR FLASH
FLOODING.
THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF FRI WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION. AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS MAY EXACERBATE ANY
ONGOING FLOODING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...BC/JP
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
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